Visions of the Future in Drinking Water Microbiology.

EPA Science Inventory

Drinking water microbiology will have a tremendous impact on defining a safe drinking water in the future. There will be breakthroughs in realtime testing of process waters for pathogen surrogates with results made available within 1 hour for application to treatment adjustments ...

Climate change impacts on water availability in the Red River Basin and critical areas for future water conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamani Sabzi, H.; Moreno, H. A.; Neeson, T. M.; Rosendahl, D. H.; Bertrand, D.; Xue, X.; Hong, Y.; Kellog, W.; Mcpherson, R. A.; Hudson, C.; Austin, B. N.

2017-12-01

Previous periods of severe drought followed by exceptional flooding in the Red River Basin (RRB) have significantly affected industry, agriculture, and the environment in the region. Therefore, projecting how climate may change in the future and being prepared for potential impacts on the RRB is crucially important. In this study, we investigated the impacts of climate change on water availability across the RRB. We used three down-scaled global climate models and three potential greenhouse gas emission scenarios to assess precipitation, temperature, streamflow and lake levels throughout the RRB from 1961 to 2099 at a spatial resolution of 1/10°. Unit-area runoff and streamflow were obtained using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model applied across the entire basin. We found that most models predict less precipitation in the western side of the basin and more in the eastern side. In terms of temperature, the models predict that average temperature could increase as much as 6°C. Most models project slightly more precipitation and streamflow values in the future, specifically in the eastern side of the basin. Finally, we analyzed the projected meteorological and hydrologic parameters alongside regional water demand for different sectors to identify the areas on the RRB that will need water-environmental conservation actions in the future. These hotspots of future low water availability are locations where regional environmental managers, water policy makers, and the agricultural and industrial sectors must proactively prepare to deal with declining water availability over the coming decades.

Middle-term Metropolitan Water Availability Index Assessment Based on Synergistic Potentials of Multi-sensor Data

EPA Science Inventory

The impact of recent drought and water pollution episodes results in an acute need to project future water availability to assist water managers in water utility infrastructure management within many metropolitan regions. Separate drought and water quality indices previously deve...

Agricultural Water Use under Global Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, T.; Ringler, C.; Rosegrant, M. W.

2008-12-01

Irrigation is by far the single largest user of water in the world and is projected to remain so in the foreseeable future. Globally, irrigated agricultural land comprises less than twenty percent of total cropland but produces about forty percent of the world's food. Increasing world population will require more food and this will lead to more irrigation in many areas. As demands increase and water becomes an increasingly scarce resource, agriculture's competition for water with other economic sectors will be intensified. This water picture is expected to become even more complex as climate change will impose substantial impacts on water availability and demand, in particular for agriculture. To better understand future water demand and supply under global change, including changes in demographic, economic and technological dimensions, the water simulation module of IMPACT, a global water and food projection model developed at the International Food Policy Research Institute, is used to analyze future water demand and supply in agricultural and several non-agricultural sectors using downscaled GCM scenarios, based on water availability simulation done with a recently developed semi-distributed global hydrological model. Risk analysis is conducted to identify countries and regions where future water supply reliability for irrigation is low, and food security may be threatened in the presence of climate change. Gridded shadow values of irrigation water are derived for global cropland based on an optimization framework, and they are used to illustrate potential irrigation development by incorporating gridded water availability and existing global map of irrigation areas.

Uncertainty of wheat water use: Simulated patterns and sensitivity to temperature and CO2

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Projected global warming and population growth will reduce water availability for agriculture, so it is essential to increase the effective use of water to ensure future crop productivity. Quantifying future crop water use (WU; i.e. actual evapotranspiration) is a critical step towards this goal. Th...

Modeling climate change impacts on water trading.

PubMed

Luo, Bin; Maqsood, Imran; Gong, Yazhen

2010-04-01

This paper presents a new method of evaluating the impacts of climate change on the long-term performance of water trading programs, through designing an indicator to measure the mean of periodic water volume that can be released by trading through a water-use system. The indicator is computed with a stochastic optimization model which can reflect the random uncertainty of water availability. The developed method was demonstrated in the Swift Current Creek watershed of Prairie Canada under two future scenarios simulated by a Canadian Regional Climate Model, in which total water availabilities under future scenarios were estimated using a monthly water balance model. Frequency analysis was performed to obtain the best probability distributions for both observed and simulated water quantity data. Results from the case study indicate that the performance of a trading system is highly scenario-dependent in future climate, with trading effectiveness highly optimistic or undesirable under different future scenarios. Trading effectiveness also largely depends on trading costs, with high costs resulting in failure of the trading program. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Uncertainties in Past and Future Global Water Availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; Kam, J.

2014-12-01

Understanding how water availability changes on inter-annual to decadal time scales and how it may change in the future under climate change are a key part of understanding future stresses on water and food security. Historic evaluations of water availability on regional to global scales are generally based on large-scale model simulations with their associated uncertainties, in particular for long-term changes. Uncertainties are due to model errors and missing processes, parameter uncertainty, and errors in meteorological forcing data. Recent multi-model inter-comparisons and impact studies have highlighted large differences for past reconstructions, due to different simplifying assumptions in the models or the inclusion of physical processes such as CO2 fertilization. Modeling of direct anthropogenic factors such as water and land management also carry large uncertainties in their physical representation and from lack of socio-economic data. Furthermore, there is little understanding of the impact of uncertainties in the meteorological forcings that underpin these historic simulations. Similarly, future changes in water availability are highly uncertain due to climate model diversity, natural variability and scenario uncertainty, each of which dominates at different time scales. In particular, natural climate variability is expected to dominate any externally forced signal over the next several decades. We present results from multi-land surface model simulations of the historic global availability of water in the context of natural variability (droughts) and long-term changes (drying). The simulations take into account the impact of uncertainties in the meteorological forcings and the incorporation of water management in the form of reservoirs and irrigation. The results indicate that model uncertainty is important for short-term drought events, and forcing uncertainty is particularly important for long-term changes, especially uncertainty in precipitation due to reduced gauge density in recent years. We also discuss uncertainties in future projections from these models as driven by bias-corrected and downscaled CMIP5 climate projections, in the context of the balance between climate model robustness and climate model diversity.

Water supply as a constraint on transmission expansion planning in the Western interconnection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tidwell, Vincent C.; Bailey, Michael; Zemlick, Katie M.; Moreland, Barbara D.

2016-12-01

Consideration of water supply in transmission expansion planning (TEP) provides a valuable means of managing impacts of thermoelectric generation on limited water resources. Toward this opportunity, thermoelectric water intensity factors and water supply availability (fresh and non-fresh sources) were incorporated into a recent TEP exercise conducted for the electric interconnection in the Western United States. The goal was to inform the placement of new thermoelectric generation so as to minimize issues related to water availability. Although freshwater availability is limited in the West, few instances across five TEP planning scenarios were encountered where water availability impacted the development of new generation. This unexpected result was related to planning decisions that favored the development of low water use generation that was geographically dispersed across the West. These planning decisions were not made because of their favorable influence on thermoelectric water demand; rather, on the basis of assumed future fuel and technology costs, policy drivers and the topology of electricity demand. Results also projected that interconnection-wide thermoelectric water consumption would increase by 31% under the business-as-usual case, while consumption would decrease by 42% under a scenario assuming a low-carbon future. Except in a few instances, new thermoelectric water consumption could be accommodated with less than 10% of the local available water supply; however, limited freshwater supplies and state-level policies could increase use of non-fresh water sources for new thermoelectric generation. Results could have been considerably different if scenarios favoring higher-intensity water use generation technology or potential impacts of climate change had been explored. Conduct of this exercise highlighted the importance of integrating water into all phases of TEP, particularly joint management of decisions that are both directly (e.g., water availability constraint) and indirectly (technology or policy constraints) related to future thermoelectric water demand, as well as, the careful selection of scenarios that adequately bound the potential dimensions of water impact.

Water supply as a constraint on transmission expansion planning in the Western interconnection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tidwell, Vincent C.; Bailey, Michael; Zemlick, Katie M.

Here, consideration of water supply in transmission expansion planning (TEP) provides a valuable means of managing impacts of thermoelectric generation on limited water resources. Toward this opportunity, thermoelectric water intensity factors and water supply availability (fresh and non-fresh sources) were incorporated into a recent TEP exercise conducted for the electric interconnection in the Western United States. The goal was to inform the placement of new thermoelectric generation so as to minimize issues related to water availability. Although freshwater availability is limited in the West, few instances across five TEP planning scenarios were encountered where water availability impacted the development ofmore » new generation. This unexpected result was related to planning decisions that favored the development of low water use generation that was geographically dispersed across the West. These planning decisions were not made because of their favorable influence on thermoelectric water demand; rather, on the basis of assumed future fuel and technology costs, policy drivers and the topology of electricity demand. Results also projected that interconnection-wide thermoelectric water consumption would increase by 31% under the business-as-usual case, while consumption would decrease by 42% under a scenario assuming a low-carbon future. Except in a few instances, new thermoelectric water consumption could be accommodated with less than 10% of the local available water supply; however, limited freshwater supplies and state-level policies could increase use of non-fresh water sources for new thermoelectric generation. Results could have been considerably different if scenarios favoring higher-intensity water use generation technology or potential impacts of climate change had been explored. Conduct of this exercise highlighted the importance of integrating water into all phases of TEP, particularly joint management of decisions that are both directly (e.g., water availability constraint) and indirectly (technology or policy constraints) related to future thermoelectric water demand, as well as, the careful selection of scenarios that adequately bound the potential dimensions of water impact.« less

Water supply as a constraint on transmission expansion planning in the Western interconnection

DOE PAGES

Tidwell, Vincent C.; Bailey, Michael; Zemlick, Katie M.; ...

2016-11-21

Here, consideration of water supply in transmission expansion planning (TEP) provides a valuable means of managing impacts of thermoelectric generation on limited water resources. Toward this opportunity, thermoelectric water intensity factors and water supply availability (fresh and non-fresh sources) were incorporated into a recent TEP exercise conducted for the electric interconnection in the Western United States. The goal was to inform the placement of new thermoelectric generation so as to minimize issues related to water availability. Although freshwater availability is limited in the West, few instances across five TEP planning scenarios were encountered where water availability impacted the development ofmore » new generation. This unexpected result was related to planning decisions that favored the development of low water use generation that was geographically dispersed across the West. These planning decisions were not made because of their favorable influence on thermoelectric water demand; rather, on the basis of assumed future fuel and technology costs, policy drivers and the topology of electricity demand. Results also projected that interconnection-wide thermoelectric water consumption would increase by 31% under the business-as-usual case, while consumption would decrease by 42% under a scenario assuming a low-carbon future. Except in a few instances, new thermoelectric water consumption could be accommodated with less than 10% of the local available water supply; however, limited freshwater supplies and state-level policies could increase use of non-fresh water sources for new thermoelectric generation. Results could have been considerably different if scenarios favoring higher-intensity water use generation technology or potential impacts of climate change had been explored. Conduct of this exercise highlighted the importance of integrating water into all phases of TEP, particularly joint management of decisions that are both directly (e.g., water availability constraint) and indirectly (technology or policy constraints) related to future thermoelectric water demand, as well as, the careful selection of scenarios that adequately bound the potential dimensions of water impact.« less

Sustainability of irrigated crops under future climate: the interplay of irrigation strategies and cultivar responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Lorenzi, F.; Bonfante, A.; Alfieri, S.; Patanè, C.; Basile, A.; Di Tommasi, P.; Monaco, E.; Menenti, M.

2012-04-01

Climate evolution will cause significant changes in the quality and availability of water resources, affecting many sectors including food production, where available water resources for irrigation play a crucial role. Strategies focused on managing and conserving water are one way to deal with the impact; moreover concurring adaptation measurements will be needed to cope with the foreseen decline of water resource. This work deals with i) the impacts of climate change on water requirements of an horticultural crop, determined in an irrigated district in Southern Italy, ii) the possible irrigation scheduling options and their sustainability in the future, iii) the adaptation measurements that can be undertaken to protect production, relying on intra-specific biodiversity of agricultural crops. Two climate scenarios were considered: present climate (1961-90) and future climate (2021-2050), the former from climatic statistics, and the latter from statistical downscaling of general circulation models (AOGCM). Climatic data set consists of daily time series of maximum and minimum temperature, and rainfall on a grid with spatial resolution of 35 km. The analysis of climate scenarios showed that significant increases in summer maximum daily temperature could be expected in 2021-2050 period. Soil water regime was determined by means of a mechanistic model (SWAP) of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. Twenty? soil units were identified in the district (in Sele Plain, Campania Region) and simulations were performed accounting for hydro-pedological properties of different soil units. Parameters of a generic tomato crop, in a rotation typical of the area, were used in simulations. Soil water balance was simulated in the present and future climate, both with optimal water availability and under constrains that irrigation schemes will pose. Indicators of soil water availability were calculated, in terms of soil water or evapotranspiration deficit. For several tomato cultivars, quantitative yield response functions to water availability were determined through the re-analysis of experimental data, derived from scientific literature. Variety-specific threshold values of yield reduction in dependence of soil water and evapotranspiration deficit were determined. The spatial pattern of soil water availability indicators was calculated., for present and future climate scenarios and for different irrigation scheduling options. Cultivars' threshold values were matched with indicators' values in all soil units. The future adaptability of the crop in the area is thus evaluated, and adaptation options that exploit the intra-specific biodiversity of the crop are indicated. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008) Keywords: climate change, tomato, deficit irrigation, biodiversity

Country-level assessment of future risk of water scarcity in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrote, Luis; Iglesias, Ana; Granados, Alfredo

2018-06-01

A methodology for regional assessment of current and future water availability in Europe is presented in this study. The methodology is based on a proposed indicator of risk of water scarcity based on the projections of runoff and water availability for European countries. The risk of water scarcity is the combined result of hydrological processes, which determine streamflow in natural conditions, and human intervention, which determines water management using the available hydraulic infrastructure and establishes water supply conditions through operating rules. Model results show that changes in runoff and availability obtained for individual GCM projections can be large and even contradictory. These heterogeneous results are summarized in the water scarcity risk index, a global value that accounts for the results obtained with the ensemble of model results and emission scenarios. The countries at larger risk are (in this order) Spain, Portugal, Macedonia, Greece, Bulgaria, Albania, France and Italy. They are mostly Mediterranean countries already exposed to significant water scarcity problems. There are countries, like Slovakia, Ireland, Belgium, Luxembourg, Croatia and Romania, with mild risk. Northern Arctic countries, like Sweden, Finland, Norway and Russia, show a robust however mild increase in water availability.

Catchments' hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climatic variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, W.; Zhang, C.; Li, Y.; Tang, Y.; Wang, D.; Xu, B.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic responses to climate variability and change are important for human society. Here we test the hypothesis that natural catchments utilize hedging strategies for evapotranspiration and water storage carryover with uncertain future precipitation. The hedging strategy for evapotranspiration in catchments under different levels of water availability is analytically derived from the economic perspective. It is found that there exists hedging between evapotranspiration for current and future only with a portion of water availability. Observation data sets of 160 catchments in the United States covering the period from 1983 to 2003 demonstrate the existence of hedging in catchment hydrology and validate the proposed hedging strategies. We also find that more water is allocated to carryover storage for hedging against the future evapotranspiration risk in the catchments with larger aridity indexes or with larger uncertainty in future precipitation, i.e., long-term climate and precipitation variability control the degree of hedging.

How to meet the increasing demands of water, food and energy in the future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Haiyun; Chen, Ji; Sivakumar, Bellie; Peart, Mervyn

2017-04-01

Regarded as a driving force in water, food and energy demands, the world's population has been increasing rapidly since the beginning of the 20th century. According to the medium-growth projection scenario of the United Nations, the world's population will reach 9.5 billion by 2050. In response to the continuously growing population during this century, water, food and energy demands have also been increasing rapidly, and social problems (e.g., water, food, and energy shortages) will be most likely to occur, especially if no proper management strategies are adopted. Then, how to meet the increasing demands of water, food and energy in the future? This study focuses on the sustainable developments of population, water, food, energy and dams, and the significances of this study can be concluded as follows: First, we reveal the close association between dams and social development through analysing the related data for the period 1960-2010, and argue that construction of additional large dams will have to be considered as one of the best available options to meet the increasing water, food and energy demands in the future. We conduct the projections of global water, food and energy consumptions and dam development for the period 2010-2050, and the results show that, compared to 2010, the total water, food and energy consumptions in 2050 will increase by 20%, 34% and 37%, respectively. Moreover, it is projected that additional 4,340 dams will be constructed by 2050 all over the world. Second, we analyse the current situation of global water scarcity based on the related data representing water resources availability (per capita available water resources), dam development (the number of dams), and the level of economic development (per capita gross domestic product). At the global scale, water scarcity exists in more than 70% of the countries around the world, including 43 countries suffering from economic water scarcity and 129 countries suffering from physical water scarcity. At the continental scale, most countries of Africa, the south and west Asia, and the central Europe are suffering from water scarcity. Third, with comprehensive consideration of population growth as the major driving force, water resources availability as the basic supporting factor, and topography as the important constraint, we address the question of future dam development and predict the locations of future large dams around the world. The results show that there will be 1,433 large dams built in the future, mainly in the Tibet Plateau and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in Asia, the East African Plateau and the western part of Africa, the Andes Mountains and the Brazilian Plateau region in South America, the Rocky Mountains in North America, the Alps in Europe, and the Murray-Darling Basin in Oceania. Taking into account of the current situation of global water scarcity, these large dams are most likely to be constructed in countries that have abundant total available water resources or per capita available water resources, no matter whether they are experiencing "economic water scarcity" or have sufficient financial support.

A generic hydroeconomic model to assess future water scarcity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice

2015-04-01

We developed a generic hydroeconomic model able to confront future water supply and demand on a large scale, taking into account man-made reservoirs. The assessment is done at the scale of river basins, using only globally available data; the methodology can thus be generalized. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources. The available quantity of water at each site is computed using the following information: runoff is taken from the outputs of CNRM climate model (Dubois et al., 2010), reservoirs are located using Aquastat, and the sub-basin flow-accumulation area of each reservoir is determined based on a Digital Elevation Model (HYDRO1k). On the demand side, agricultural and domestic demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. For the agricultural sector, globally available data on irrigated areas and crops are combined in order to determine irrigated crops localization. Then, crops irrigation requirements are computed for the different stages of the growing season using Allen (1998) method with Hargreaves potential evapotranspiration. Irrigation water economic value is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. Potential irrigated and rainfed yields are taken from LPJmL (Blondeau et al., 2007), or from FAOSTAT by making simple assumptions on yield ratios. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The method consists in building three-blocks inverse demand functions where volume limits of the blocks evolve with the level of GDP per capita. The value of water along the demand curve is determined from price-elasticity, price and demand data from the literature, using the point-expansion method, and from water costs data. Then projected demands are confronted to future water availability. Operating rules of the reservoirs and water allocation between demands are based on the maximization of water benefits, over time and space. A parameterisation-simulation-optimisation approach is used. This gives a projection of future water scarcity in the different locations and an estimation of the associated direct economic losses from unsatisfied demands. This generic hydroeconomic model can be easily applied to large-scale regions, in particular developing regions where little reliable data is available. We will present an application to Algeria, up to the 2050 horizon.

Water Availability in a Warming World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aminzade, Jennifer

As climate warms during the 21st century, the resultant changes in water availability are a vital issue for society, perhaps even more important than the magnitude of warming itself. Yet our climate models disagree in their forecasts of water availability, limiting our ability to plan accordingly. This thesis investigates future water availability projections from Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models (GCMs), primarily using two water availability measures: soil moisture and the Supply Demand Drought Index (SDDI). Chapter One introduces methods of measuring water availability and explores some of the fundamental differences between soil moisture, SDDI and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). SDDI and PDSI tend to predict more severe future drought conditions than soil moisture; 21st century projections of SDDI show conditions rivaling North American historic mega-droughts. We compare multiple potential evapotranspiration (EP) methods in New York using input from the GISS Model ER GCM and local station data from Rochester, NY, and find that they compare favorably with local pan evaporation measurements. We calculate SDDI and PDSI values using various EP methods, and show that changes in future projections are largest when using EP methods most sensitive to global warming, not necessarily methods producing EP values with the largest magnitudes. Chapter Two explores the characteristics and biases of the five GCMs and their 20th and 21st century climate projections. We compare atmospheric variables that drive water availability changes globally, zonally, and geographically among models. All models show increases in both dry and wet extremes for SDDI and soil moisture, but increases are largest for extreme drying conditions using SDDI. The percentage of gridboxes that agree on the sign of change of soil moisture and SDDI between models is very low, but does increase in the 21st century. Still, differences between models are smaller than differences between SDDI and soil moisture projections. Chapter Three addresses the three major differences between SDDI and soil moisture calculations that shed light on why their future projections diverge: evaporation approximations, dependence on previous months' conditions, and the inclusion of additional variables such as runoff. We implement various changes in SDDI and a GCM vegetation scheme to test the sensitivity of each measure and to evaluate which alterations increase the similarity between SDDI and soil moisture. In addition to deconstructing the differences between SDDI and soil moisture, we analyze their projections regionally in Chapter Four. In seven regions (the southwest U.S., southern Europe, eastern China, eastern Siberia, Australia, Uruguay and Colombia), we (1) assess the forecasts of future water availability changes, (2) compare the atmospheric dynamical processes that produce rainfall and drought in the real world to the way it occurs in individual GCMs, (3) determine how these processes change as global temperatures increase, and (4) identify the most likely scenarios for future regional water availability. Chapter Five summarizes key findings by chapter, enumerating this dissertation's contributions to the field. It then discusses the limitations of existing models and measures, and suggests potential solutions for overcoming their predictive shortfalls. Finally, the chapter concludes with a proposal for future research to expand upon this dissertation work. This thesis highlights the global and zonal differences between two water availability measures, SDDI and soil moisture and identifies regions where they agree and disagree in 21st century modeled scenarios. It provides an explanation for differing projections in soil moisture and SDDI and proves that it is possible to bring convergence to their future projections, which is also applicable to PDSI. Finally, a detailed analysis of climatic changes from five GCMs made it possible to present the most likely scenarios for 21st century water availability in seven regions.

Development of an Integrated Agricultural Planning Model Considering Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santikayasa, I. P.

2016-01-01

The goal of this study is to develop an agriculture planning model in order to sustain the future water use under the estimation of crop water requirement, water availability and future climate projection. For this purpose, the Citarum river basin which is located in West Java - Indonesia is selected as the study area. Two emission scenarios A2 and B2 were selected. For the crop water requirement estimation, the output of HadCM3 AOGCM is statistically downscale using SDSM and used as the input for WEAP model developed by SEI (Stockholm Environmental Institute). The reliability of water uses is assessed by comparing the irrigation water demand and the water allocation for the irrigation area. The water supply resources are assessed using the water planning tool. This study shows that temperature and precipitation over the study area are projected to increase in the future. The water availability was projected to increase under both A2 and B2 emission scenarios in the future. The irrigation water requirement is expected to decrease in the future under A2 and B2 scenarios. By comparing the irrigation water demand and water allocation for irrigation, the reliability of agriculture water use is expected to change in the period of 2050s and 2080s while the reliability will not change in 2020s. The reliability under A2 scenario is expected to be higher than B2 scenario. The combination of WEAP and SDSM is significance to use in assessing and allocating the water resources in the region.

Assessing Groundwater Availability in the High Plains Aquifer in Parts of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Qi, Sharon L.; Christenson, Scott

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey's Groundwater Resources Program is conducting an assessment of groundwater availability to gain a clearer understanding of the status of the Nation's groundwater resources and the natural and human factors that can affect those resources. The goals of this national effort are to define the current status and improve understanding of the Nation's groundwater resources, to better estimate availability and suitability of those resources for use in the future, and to provide tools to estimate the future availability of ground-water for its various uses. Assessments will be completed for regional aquifer systems across the Nation to help characterize how much water we have, where groundwater resources are most stressed, how groundwater availability is changing, and where groundwater resources are most available for future use.

Assessing groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Masterson, John P.; Pope, Jason P.; Monti, Jack; Nardi, Mark R.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey's Groundwater Resources Program is conducting an assessment of groundwater availability throughout the United States to gain a better understanding of the status of the Nation's groundwater resources and how changes in land use, water use, and climate may affect those resources. The goal of this National assessment is to improve our ability to forecast water availability for future economic and environmental uses. Assessments will be completed for the Nation's principal aquifer systems to help characterize how much water is currently available, how water availability is changing, and how much water we can expect to have in the future (Reilly and others, 2008). The concept of groundwater availability is more than just how much water can be pumped from any given aquifer. Groundwater availability is a function of many factors, including the quantity and quality of water and the laws, regulations, economics, and environmental factors that control its use. The primary objective of the North Atlantic Coastal Plain groundwater-availability study is to identify spatial and temporal changes in the overall water budget by more fully determining the natural and human processes that control how water enters, moves through, and leaves the groundwater system. Development of tools such as numerical models can help hydrologists gain an understanding of this groundwater system, allowing forecasts to be made about the response of this system to natural and human stresses, and water quality and ecosystem health to be analyzed, throughout the region.

Shifting species interactions in terrestrial dryland ecosystems under altered water availability and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCluney, Kevin E.; Belnap, Jayne; Collins, Scott L.; González, Angélica L.; Hagen, Elizabeth M.; Holland, J. Nathaniel; Kotler, Burt P.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Smith, Stanley D.; Wolf, Blair O.

2012-01-01

Species interactions play key roles in linking the responses of populations, communities, and ecosystems to environmental change. For instance, species interactions are an important determinant of the complexity of changes in trophic biomass with variation in resources. Water resources are a major driver of terrestrial ecology and climate change is expected to greatly alter the distribution of this critical resource. While previous studies have documented strong effects of global environmental change on species interactions in general, responses can vary from region to region. Dryland ecosystems occupy more than one-third of the Earth's land mass, are greatly affected by changes in water availability, and are predicted to be hotspots of climate change. Thus, it is imperative to understand the effects of environmental change on these globally significant ecosystems. Here, we review studies of the responses of population-level plant-plant, plant-herbivore, and predator-prey interactions to changes in water availability in dryland environments in order to develop new hypotheses and predictions to guide future research. To help explain patterns of interaction outcomes, we developed a conceptual model that views interaction outcomes as shifting between (1) competition and facilitation (plant-plant), (2) herbivory, neutralism, or mutualism (plant-herbivore), or (3) neutralism and predation (predator-prey), as water availability crosses physiological, behavioural, or population-density thresholds. We link our conceptual model to hypothetical scenarios of current and future water availability to make testable predictions about the influence of changes in water availability on species interactions. We also examine potential implications of our conceptual model for the relative importance of top-down effects and the linearity of patterns of change in trophic biomass with changes in water availability. Finally, we highlight key research needs and some possible broader impacts of our findings. Overall, we hope to stimulate and guide future research that links changes in water availability to patterns of species interactions and the dynamics of populations and communities in dryland ecosystems.

Modeling global water use for the 21st century: the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative and its approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Y.; Flörke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.; Burek, P.; Wiberg, D.

2016-01-01

To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity conditions already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of the world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative coordinates its work with other ongoing scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fast-track" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.

Modeling Global Water Use for the 21st Century: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative and Its Approaches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wada, Y.; Florke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.;

Modeling global water use for the 21st century: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative and its approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Y.; Flörke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.; Wiberg, D.

2015-08-01

To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity condition already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions initiative (WFaS) coordinates its work with other on-going scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fast-track" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.

Regulation of water resources for sustaining global future socioeconomic development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, J.; SHI, H.; Sivakumar, B.

2016-12-01

With population projections indicating continued growth during this century, socio-economic problems (e.g., water, food, and energy shortages) will be most likely to occur, especially if proper planning, development, and management strategies are not adopted. In the present study, firstly, we explore the vital role of dams in promoting economic growth through analyzing the relationship between dams and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at both global and national scales. Secondly, we analyze the current situation of global water scarcity based on the data representing water resources availability, dam development, and the level of economic development. Third, with comprehensive consideration of population growth as the major driving force, water resources availability as the basic supporting factor, and topography as the important constraint, this study addresses the question of dam development in the future and predicts the locations of future dams around the world.

A Monthly Water-Balance Model through a Two-Stage Partitioning of Precipitation Quantified by Budyko Equation and Hedging Rule

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kheimi, M.; Wang, D.

2017-12-01

Water operating in reservoir system is similar to natural catchment systems in water regulations. The most contributing role in both systems is found to be mitigating of available water deficits from excessive and keeping it away from prolonged droughts. In this paper, Bodyko equation and hedging rule are presented by two stage portioning monthly water balance model. The first stage is the partitioning of precipitation to evapotranspiration (E) plus future storage (S1) and runoff (Q); the second stage is using hedging rule where evapotranspiration and future storage to be recognized by a tradeoff between evapotranspiration and future water storage. The model introduces a linear two point hedging parameters: starting water availability (y1) and ending of water availability (y2).The calibration of the model is based on five parameters: three derived from Budyko equation (S0, ξ, and Yp) and two from hedging rule (y1 and y2).The catchment climate zone along with its physical properties have an effect on the degree of hedging. The y1 and y2 parameters are indicators of the amount of hedging in dry and wet zones. The span between the starting point (y1) and ending point (y2) of hedging indicate there is hedging against future evapotranspiration shortage. Observation of 187 catchments was examined using this model concept for the period of 21 years starting from 1983 to 2003. After calibration and validation using a genetic algorithm it shows that hedging effect in catchment against future evapotranspiration shortages exists with an abundance of hedging effect in dry areas more than wet areas.

Analyzing water resources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

Report on water resources discusses problems in water measurement demand, use, and availability. Also discussed are sensing accuracies, parameter monitoring, and status of forecasting, modeling, and future measurement techniques.

Open Source Tools for Assessment of Global Water Availability, Demands, and Scarcity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Vernon, C. R.; Hejazi, M. I.; Link, R. P.; Liu, Y.; Feng, L.; Huang, Z.; Liu, L.

2017-12-01

Water availability and water demands are essential factors for estimating water scarcity conditions. To reproduce historical observations and to quantify future changes in water availability and water demand, two open source tools have been developed by the JGCRI (Joint Global Change Research Institute): Xanthos and GCAM-STWD. Xanthos is a gridded global hydrologic model, designed to quantify and analyze water availability in 235 river basins. Xanthos uses a runoff generation and a river routing modules to simulate both historical and future estimates of total runoff and streamflows on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees. GCAM-STWD is a spatiotemporal water disaggregation model used with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to spatially downscale global water demands for six major enduse sectors (irrigation, domestic, electricity generation, mining, and manufacturing) from the region scale to the scale of 0.5 degrees. GCAM-STWD then temporally downscales the gridded annual global water demands to monthly results. These two tools, written in Python, can be integrated to assess global, regional or basin-scale water scarcity or water stress. Both of the tools are extensible to ensure flexibility and promote contribution from researchers that utilize GCAM and study global water use and supply.

Combined impacts of climate and socio-economic scenarios on irrigation water availability for a dry Mediterranean reservoir.

PubMed

Nunes, João Pedro; Jacinto, Rita; Keizer, Jan Jacob

2017-04-15

The impacts of climate and associated socio-economic changes on water availability, including supply and demand, quality, and storage volume, were evaluated for the Vale do Gaio reservoir in southern Portugal, located in a dry Mediterranean climate and already under drought stress. The SWAT model was applied with 6 scenarios for 2071-2100, involving two storylines (A1B and B1) with individual changes in climate (-9% rainfall, increasing in winter by +28 to +30%), socio-economic conditions (an increase in irrigation demand by 11%, and a replacement of cereals and pastures by sunflower), and a combination of both. Most future scenarios resulted in lower water availability, due to lower supply (-19 to -27%) combined with higher irrigation demand (+3 to +21%). This resulted in more years with limited irrigation supplies (presently: 28%; scenarios: 37 to 43%), although limitations were mitigated by lower losses to excess discharge. Land-use changes also decreased quality by increasing P concentrations (+29 to +93%). Impacts were more severe in scenario A1B than in B1, and in combined changes than in climate or socio-economic changes only. Water availability was resilient to climate change, as impacts led only to a moderate aggravation of present-day conditions. Lower future water availability could be addressed by supply and demand management strategies and, in the most extreme scenario, by water transfers from regional water reserves; water quality issues could be addressed through land-use policies. Results also highlighted the importance of taking the characteristics of water supply systems into account when designing adaptation measures for future changes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Investigating the water consumption for electricity generation at Turkish power plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Khozondar, Balkess; Aydinalp Koksal, Merih

2017-11-01

The water-energy intertwined relationship has recently gained more importance due to the high water consumption in the energy sector and to the limited availability of the water resources. The energy and electricity demand of Turkey is increasing rapidly in the last two decades. More thermal power plants are expected to be built in the near future to supply the rapidly increasing demand in Turkey which will put pressure on water availability. In this study, the water consumption for electricity generation at Turkish power plants is investigated. The main objectives of this study are to identify the amount of water consumed to generate 1 kWh of electricity for each generation technology currently used in Turkey and to investigate ways to reduce the water consumption at power plants expected to be built in the near future to supply the increasing demand. The various electricity generation technology mixture scenarios are analyzed to determine the future total and per generation water consumption, and water savings based on changes of cooling systems used for each technology. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) program is used to determine the minimum water consuming electricity generation technology mixtures using optimization approaches between 2017 and 2035.

A Scenario Based Assessment of Future Groundwater Resources in the Phoenix Active Management Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escobar, V. M.; Lant, T. W.

2007-12-01

The availability of future water supplies in central Arizona depends on the interaction of multiple physical and human systems: climate, hydrology, water and land-use policy, urbanization, and regulation. The problem in assessing future water supplies requires untangling these drivers and recasting the issue in a way that acknowledges the inherent uncertainties in climate and population growth predictions while offering meaningful metrics for outcomes under alternative scenarios. Further, the drivers, policy options, and outcomes are spatially heterogeneous - surface water supplies, new urban developments and changes in land-use will not be shared uniformly across the region. Consequently, different geographic regions of the Phoenix metropolitan area will be more vulnerable to shortages in water availability, and these potential vulnerabilities will be more or less severe depending on which factors cause the shortage. The results of this research will make several contributions to existing literature and research products for groundwater conservation and future urban planning. It will provide location specific metrics of water vulnerability and offer a novel approach to groundwater analysis; it will demonstrate the XLRM framework with an application to central Arizona Water resources. Lastly, it will add to the WaterSim climate model by spatializing the groundwater component for the Phoenix Active Management Area.

Water Resilience by Design: A water infrastructure planning framework for developing sustainable water management strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, C.; Ray, P. A.; Freeman, S.

2016-12-01

Societal need for improved water management and concerns for the long-term sustainability of water resources systems are prominent around the world. The continued susceptibility of society to the harmful effects of hydrologic variability, pervasive concerns related to climate change and the emergent awareness of devastating effects of current practice on aquatic ecosystems all illustrate our limited understanding of how water ought to be managed in a dynamic world. To address these challenges, new problem solving approaches are required that acknowledge uncertainties, incorporate best available information, and link engineering design principles, typically based on determinism, with our best geoscience-based understanding of planetary change. In this presentation, we present and demonstrate a framework for developing water planning and management strategies that are resilient in the face of future uncertainties and our limited ability to anticipate the future. The approach begins with stakeholder engagement and decision framing to elicit relevant context, uncertainties, choices and connections that drive planning and serve as an entry point to exploring possible futures. The result is the development of water strategies that are informed by the best available predictive information and designed to perform well over a future of change. Examples from around the world are presented to illustrate the methodology.

Analyzing Uncertainty and Risk in the Management of Water Resources in the State Of Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, A.; Hauffpauir, R.; Mishra, S.; Lavenue, M.

2010-12-01

The State of Texas updates its state water plan every five years to determine the water demand required to meet its growing population. The plan compiles forecasts of water deficits from state-wide regional water planning groups as well as the water supply strategies to address these deficits. To date, the plan has adopted a deterministic framework, where reference values (e.g., best estimates, worst-case scenario) are used for key factors such as population growth, demand for water, severity of drought, water availability, etc. These key factors can, however, be affected by multiple sources of uncertainties such as - the impact of climate on surface water and groundwater availability, uncertainty in population projections, changes in sectoral composition of the economy, variability in water usage, feasibility of the permitting process, cost of implementation, etc. The objective of this study was to develop a generalized and scalable methodology for addressing uncertainty and risk in water resources management both at the regional and the local water planning level. The study proposes a framework defining the elements of an end-to-end system model that captures the key components of demand, supply and planning modules along with their associated uncertainties. The framework preserves the fundamental elements of the well-established planning process in the State of Texas, promoting an incremental and stakeholder-driven approach to adding different levels of uncertainty (and risk) into the decision-making environment. The uncertainty in the water planning process is broken down into two primary categories: demand uncertainty and supply uncertainty. Uncertainty in Demand is related to the uncertainty in population projections and the per-capita usage rates. Uncertainty in Supply, in turn, is dominated by the uncertainty in future climate conditions. Climate is represented in terms of time series of precipitation, temperature and/or surface evaporation flux for some future time period of interest, which can be obtained as outputs of global climate models (GCMs). These are then linked with hydrologic and water-availability models (WAMs) to estimate water availability for the worst drought conditions under each future climate scenario. Combining the demand scenarios with the water availability scenarios yields multiple scenarios for water shortage (or surplus). Given multiple shortage/surplus scenarios, various water management strategies can be assessed to evaluate the reliability of meeting projected deficits. These reliabilities are then used within a multi-criteria decision-framework to assess trade-offs between various water management objectives, thus helping to make more robust decisions while planning for the water needs of the future.

The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Quality and Quantity of Freshwater Available to Humans in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, D. M.; Strang, E. T.; Alessa, L.; Hinzman, L.; Kliskey, A.

2005-12-01

The objective of this research is to understand how humans rely on freshwater at local and regional scales in selected parts of the Arctic, how these dependencies have changed in the recent past, and how they are likely to change in the future. The study seeks to incorporate likely effects of climate change on the hydrologic cycle and water availability to humans in the Arctic. The human demand for freshwater has risen dramatically over the past hundred years. Communities on the Seward Peninsula currently rely on both treated and traditional water sources for their drinking water. In many cases, availability of freshwater limits the use of both of these types of water sources. Future water demand predictions suggest that the demand for treated water will increase significantly as water systems are upgraded and the population of the area increases. Preliminary research indicates that water quality may by impacted by hydrologic changes, and further research is underway to determine the extent of these changes and how they will affect drinking water supplies on the Seward Peninsula. Understanding how climate change will impact the hydrology of this area will help minimize the impact these changes have on both engineered water systems and traditional water uses in the future. This presentation provides the most recent results of this research program. This study is being funded under the NSF Arctic System Science Program, Human Dimensions of the Arctic (OPP-0328686).

Vulnerability Assessment of Water Supply Systems: Status, Gaps and Opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheater, H. S.

2015-12-01

Conventional frameworks for assessing the impacts of climate change on water resource systems use cascades of climate and hydrological models to provide 'top-down' projections of future water availability, but these are subject to high uncertainty and are model and scenario-specific. Hence there has been recent interest in 'bottom-up' frameworks, which aim to evaluate system vulnerability to change in the context of possible future climate and/or hydrological conditions. Such vulnerability assessments are generic, and can be combined with updated information from top-down assessments as they become available. While some vulnerability methods use hydrological models to estimate water availability, fully bottom-up schemes have recently been proposed that directly map system vulnerability as a function of feasible changes in water supply characteristics. These use stochastic algorithms, based on reconstruction or reshuffling methods, by which multiple water supply realizations can be generated under feasible ranges of change in water supply conditions. The paper reports recent successes, and points to areas of future improvement. Advances in stochastic modeling and optimization can address some technical limitations in flow reconstruction, while various data mining and system identification techniques can provide possibilities to better condition realizations for consistency with top-down scenarios. Finally, we show that probabilistic and Bayesian frameworks together can provide a potential basis to combine information obtained from fully bottom-up analyses with projections available from climate and/or hydrological models in a fully integrated risk assessment framework for deep uncertainty.

Analysis of Future Streamflow Regimes under Global Change Scenarios in Central Chile for Ecosystem Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henriquez Dole, L. E.; Gironas, J. A.; Vicuna, S.

2015-12-01

Given the critical role of the streamflow regime for ecosystem sustainability, modeling long term effects of climate change and land use change on streamflow is important to predict possible impacts in stream ecosystems. Because flow duration curves are largely used to characterize the streamflow regime and define indices of ecosystem health, they were used to represent and analyze in this study the stream regime in the Maipo River Basin in Central Chile. Water and Environmental Assessment and Planning (WEAP) model and the Plant Growth Model (PGM) were used to simulate water distribution, consumption in rural areas and stream flows on a weekly basis. Historical data (1990-2014), future land use scenarios (2030/2050) and climate change scenarios were included in the process. Historical data show a declining trend in flows mainly by unprecedented climatic conditions, increasing interest among users on future streamflow scenarios. In the future, under an expected decline in water availability coupled with changes in crop water demand, water users will be forced to adapt by changing water allocation rules. Such adaptation actions would in turns affect the streamflow regime. Future scenarios for streamflow regime show dramatic changes in water availability and temporal distribution. Annual weekly mean flows can reduce in 19% in the worst scenario and increase in 3.3% in the best of them, and variability in streamflow increases nearly 90% in all scenarios under evaluation. The occurrence of maximum and minimum monthly flows changes, as June instead of July becomes the driest month, and December instead of January becomes the month with maximum flows. Overall, results show that under future scenarios streamflow is affected and altered by water allocation rules to satisfy water demands, and thus decisions will need to consider the streamflow regime (and habitat) in order to be sustainable.

Parameterizing a Large-scale Water Balance Model in Regions with Sparse Data: The Tigris-Euphrates River Basins as an Example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flint, A. L.; Flint, L. E.

2010-12-01

The characterization of hydrologic response to current and future climates is of increasing importance to many countries around the world that rely heavily on changing and uncertain water supplies. Large-scale models that can calculate a spatially distributed water balance and elucidate groundwater recharge and surface water flows for large river basins provide a basis of estimates of changes due to future climate projections. Unfortunately many regions in the world have very sparse data for parameterization or calibration of hydrologic models. For this study, the Tigris and Euphrates River basins were used for the development of a regional water balance model at 180-m spatial scale, using the Basin Characterization Model, to estimate historical changes in groundwater recharge and surface water flows in the countries of Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. Necessary input parameters include precipitation, air temperature, potential evapotranspiration (PET), soil properties and thickness, and estimates of bulk permeability from geologic units. Data necessary for calibration includes snow cover, reservoir volumes (from satellite data and historic, pre-reservoir elevation data) and streamflow measurements. Global datasets for precipitation, air temperature, and PET were available at very large spatial scales (50 km) through the world scale databases, finer scale WorldClim climate data, and required downscaling to fine scales for model input. Soils data were available through world scale soil maps but required parameterization on the basis of textural data to estimate soil hydrologic properties. Soil depth was interpreted from geomorphologic interpretation and maps of quaternary deposits, and geologic materials were categorized from generalized geologic maps of each country. Estimates of bedrock permeability were made on the basis of literature and data on driller’s logs and adjusted during calibration of the model to streamflow measurements where available. Results of historical water balance calculations throughout the Tigris and Euphrates River basins will be shown along with details of processing input data to provide spatial continuity and downscaling. Basic water availability analysis for recharge and runoff is readily available from a determinisitic solar radiation energy balance model and a global potential evapotranspiration model and global estimates of precipitation and air temperature. Future climate estimates can be readily applied to the same water and energy balance models to evaluate future water availability for countries around the globe.

Expected increase in staple crop imports in water-scarce countries in 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chouchane, Hatem; Krol, Maarten; Hoekstra, Arjen

2017-04-01

Water scarcity is a major challenge in the coming decades. The increasing population and the changing pattern of water availability that results from global warming reduce the potential of sufficient food production in many countries over the world. Today, two thirds of the global population are already living under conditions of severe water scarcity at least one month of the year. This rises the importance of addressing the present and future relationship between water availability and food import in water-scarce countries. The net import of staple crops (barley, cassava, maize, millet and products, oats, potatoes, rice, rye, sorghum, soybeans, sweet potatoes, wheat and yams) is analysed in relation to water availability per capita for the period 1961-2010, considering five decadal averages. The relation found is used together with the low, medium and high population growth scenarios from the United Nations to project the staple crops import in water-scarce countries for the year 2050. Additionally, we investigate the uncertainties related to the three population scenarios. Results will help countries to better understand the impact of population growth and limited water resources on their future food trade. This study will provide a valuable supporting tool for policy makers towards more sustainable and water-efficient food production as targeted with the Sustainable Development Goals. Keywords: Water Availability, Food Import, Staple Crops, Water Scarcity, Water-Use Efficiency, Sustainable Development Goals.

Identification of the effective water availability from streamflows in the Zerafshan river basin, Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olsson, Oliver; Gassmann, Matthias; Wegerich, Kai; Bauer, Melanie

2010-09-01

SummaryQuantitative estimates of the hydrologic effects of climate change are essential for understanding and solving potential transboundary water conflicts in the Zerafshan river basin, Central Asia. This paper introduces an identification of runoff generation processes and a detection of changes in hydrological regimes supporting Mann-Kendall trend analysis for streamflows. By this, the effective available and future water resources are identified for the Zerafshan. The results for the subbasins in the upper Zerafshan and for the reference station at the upper catchment outlet indicate that glacier melt is the most significant component of river runoff. The Mann-Kendall trend analysis confirms the regime analysis with the shift in the seasonality of the discharge. Furthermore, the results of the Kendall-Theil Robust Line for predicted long-term discharge trends show a decreasing annual discharge. The experience gained during this study emphasizes the fact that the summer flood, urgently required for the large irrigation projects downstream in Uzbekistan, is reduced and more water will be available in spring. Additionally, following the estimation of future discharges in 50 and 100 years the hydrological changes are affecting the seasonal water availability for irrigation. This analysis highlighted that water availability is decreasing and the timing of availability is changing. Hence, there will be more competition between upstream Tajikistan and downstream Uzbekistan. Planned projects within the basin might have to be reconsidered and the changed scenario of water availability needs to be properly taken into account for long-term basin scale water management.

Water Availability and Use Pilot-A multiscale assessment in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reeves, Howard W.

2011-01-01

Beginning in 2005, water availability and use were assessed for the U.S. part of the Great Lakes Basin through the Great Lakes Basin Pilot of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) national assessment of water availability and use. The goals of a national assessment of water availability and use are to clarify our understanding of water-availability status and trends and improve our ability to forecast the balance between water supply and demand for future economic and environmental uses. This report outlines possible approaches for full-scale implementation of such an assessment. As such, the focus of this study was on collecting, compiling, and analyzing a wide variety of data to define the storage and dynamics of water resources and quantify the human demands on water in the Great Lakes region. The study focused on multiple spatial and temporal scales to highlight not only the abundant regional availability of water but also the potential for local shortages or conflicts over water. Regional studies provided a framework for understanding water resources in the basin. Subregional studies directed attention to varied aspects of the water-resources system that would have been difficult to assess for the whole region because of either data limitations or time limitations for the project. The study of local issues and concerns was motivated by regional discussions that led to recent legislative action between the Great Lakes States and regional cooperation with the Canadian Great Lakes Provinces. The multiscale nature of the study findings challenges water-resource managers and the public to think about regional water resources in an integrated way and to understand how future changes to the system-driven by human uses, climate variability, or land-use change-may be accommodated by informed water-resources management.

Shifting species interactions in terrestrial dryland ecosystems under altered water availability and climate change.

PubMed

McCluney, Kevin E; Belnap, Jayne; Collins, Scott L; González, Angélica L; Hagen, Elizabeth M; Nathaniel Holland, J; Kotler, Burt P; Maestre, Fernando T; Smith, Stanley D; Wolf, Blair O

2012-08-01

Species interactions play key roles in linking the responses of populations, communities, and ecosystems to environmental change. For instance, species interactions are an important determinant of the complexity of changes in trophic biomass with variation in resources. Water resources are a major driver of terrestrial ecology and climate change is expected to greatly alter the distribution of this critical resource. While previous studies have documented strong effects of global environmental change on species interactions in general, responses can vary from region to region. Dryland ecosystems occupy more than one-third of the Earth's land mass, are greatly affected by changes in water availability, and are predicted to be hotspots of climate change. Thus, it is imperative to understand the effects of environmental change on these globally significant ecosystems. Here, we review studies of the responses of population-level plant-plant, plant-herbivore, and predator-prey interactions to changes in water availability in dryland environments in order to develop new hypotheses and predictions to guide future research. To help explain patterns of interaction outcomes, we developed a conceptual model that views interaction outcomes as shifting between (1) competition and facilitation (plant-plant), (2) herbivory, neutralism, or mutualism (plant-herbivore), or (3) neutralism and predation (predator-prey), as water availability crosses physiological, behavioural, or population-density thresholds. We link our conceptual model to hypothetical scenarios of current and future water availability to make testable predictions about the influence of changes in water availability on species interactions. We also examine potential implications of our conceptual model for the relative importance of top-down effects and the linearity of patterns of change in trophic biomass with changes in water availability. Finally, we highlight key research needs and some possible broader impacts of our findings. Overall, we hope to stimulate and guide future research that links changes in water availability to patterns of species interactions and the dynamics of populations and communities in dryland ecosystems. © 2011 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2011 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Assessing surface water availability considering human water use and projected climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashraf, Batool; AghaKouchak, Amir; Mousavi-Baygi, Mohammd; Moftakhari, Hamed; Anjileli, Hassan

2017-04-01

Climate variability along with anthropogenic activities alter the hydrological cycle and local water availability. The overarching goal of this presentation is to demonstrate the compounding interactions between human water use/withdrawals and climate change and variability. We focus on Karkheh River basin and Urmia basin, in western Iran, that have high level of human activity and water use, and suffer from low water productivity. The future of these basins and their growth relies on sustainable water resources and hence, requires a holistic, basin-wide management to cope with water scarcity challenges. In this study, we investigate changes in the hydrology of the basin including human-induced alterations of the system, during the past three decades. Then, we investigate the individual and combined effects of climate variability and human water withdrawals on surface water storage in the 21st century. We use bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from ensemble mean of eleven General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results show that, hydrology of the studied basins are significantly dominated by human activities over the baseline period (1976 - 2005). Results show that the increased anthropogenic water demand resulting from substantial socio-economic growth in the past three decades have put significant stress on water resources. We evaluate a number of future water demand scenarios and their interactions with future climate projections. Our results show that by the end of the 21st century, the compounding effects of increased irrigation water demand and precipitation variability may lead to severe local water scarcity in these basins. Our study highlights the necessity for understanding and considering the compounding effects of human water use and future climate projections. Such studies would be useful for improving water management and developing adaption plans in water scarce regions.

Impact of climate change on water resources status: A case study for Crete Island, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.; Daliakopoulos, Ioannis N.; Jacob, Daniela

2013-02-01

SummaryAn assessment of the impact of global climate change on the water resources status of the island of Crete, for a range of 24 different scenarios of projected hydro-climatological regime is presented. Three "state of the art" Global Climate Models (GCMs) and an ensemble of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under emission scenarios B1, A2 and A1B provide future precipitation (P) and temperature (T) estimates that are bias adjusted against observations. The ensemble of RCMs for the A1B scenario project a higher P reduction compared to GCMs projections under A2 and B1 scenarios. Among GCMs model results, the ECHAM model projects a higher P reduction compared to IPSL and CNCM. Water availability for the whole island at basin scale until 2100 is estimated using the SAC-SMA rainfall-runoff model And a set of demand and infrastructure scenarios are adopted to simulate potential water use. While predicted reduction of water availability under the B1 emission scenario can be handled with water demand stabilized at present values and full implementation of planned infrastructure, other scenarios require additional measures and a robust signal of water insufficiency is projected. Despite inherent uncertainties, the quantitative impact of the projected changes on water availability indicates that climate change plays an important role to water use and management in controlling future water status in a Mediterranean island like Crete. The results of the study reinforce the necessity to improve and update local water management planning and adaptation strategies in order to attain future water security.

Water scarcity and economic damage in Europe: regionally relevant simulations from 2000 to 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhard, Jeroen; de Roo, Ad; Bisselink, Bernard; Gelati, Emiliano; Karssenberg, Derek; de Jong, Steven

2017-04-01

Water availability is unequally distributed across Europe. Where certain regions experience a surplus of water, other areas have limited water availability which causes economic damage to the water using sectors such as households, industries or agriculture. Future changes in climatic and socio-economic conditions are expected to further increase the competition for available water that is already present in Europe. This means there is an increasing need for models that are able to simulate this multi-sectorial system of water availability and demand and incorporate the socio-economic component required for robust decisions and policy support. We present our modelling study which is focused at providing regionally relevant pan-European water scarcity and economic damage simulations. First we developed regionally relevant pan-European water demand simulations for the household and industry sector from 2000 up to 2050. For the household sector we developed a model to simulate water use based on water price, income and several other relevant variables at NUTS-3 level (over 1200 regions in Europe). Alternatively, we modelled industrial water use based on regionally downscaled water productivity values at the national level for ten sub-sections of the NACE (Nomenclature of Economic Activities) classification for economic activities. Subsequently we used scenario projections of our explanatory variables to make scenario simulations of water demand from 2000 up to 2050 at pan-European scale with unprecedented spatial and sub-sectorial detail. In order to analyze the European water use system we integrated these water demand scenarios into the hydrological rainfall-runoff model called LISFLOOD (Distributed Water Balance and Flood Simulation Model), which incorporates a vegetation module for the simulation of crop yield and irrigation water demand of the agriculture sector. We simulated river discharge and groundwater availability for abstractions of water using sectors across Europe from 2000 up to 2050 at 5km grid level for multiple climate and socio-economic scenarios. This allowed us to identify regions with water scarcity problems from the recent past up to 2050 and quantify the economic damage that can be attributed to the limited water availability. Results showed several regions where substantially more water is extracted from the system than what would be sustainable into the future. Furthermore, we analyzed how changing water prices or relocation of economic activities could reduce future water scarcity problems and decrease the related economical damage. We found that for some regions, relatively small measurers already could have a positive impact on water scarcity problems.

Sensitivity of power system operations to projected changes in water availability due to climate change: the Western U.S. case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voisin, N.; Macknick, J.; Fu, T.; O'Connell, M.; Zhou, T.; Brinkman, G.

2017-12-01

Water resources provide multiple critical services to the electrical grid through hydropower technologies, from generation to regulation of the electric grid (frequency, capacity reserve). Water resources can also represent vulnerabilities to the electric grid, as hydropower and thermo-electric facilities require water for operations. In the Western U.S., hydropower and thermo-electric plants that rely on fresh surface water represent 67% of the generating capacity. Prior studies have looked at the impact of change in water availability under future climate conditions on expected generating capacity in the Western U.S., but have not evaluated operational risks or changes resulting from climate. In this study, we systematically assess the impact of change in water availability and air temperatures on power operations, i.e. we take into account the different grid services that water resources can provide to the electric grid (generation, regulation) in the system-level context of inter-regional coordination through the electric transmission network. We leverage the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) hydrology simulations under historical and future climate conditions, and force the large scale river routing- water management model MOSART-WM along with 2010-level sectoral water demands. Changes in monthly hydropower potential generation (including generation and reserves), as well as monthly generation capacity of thermo-electric plants are derived for each power plant in the Western U.S. electric grid. We then utilize the PLEXOS electricity production cost model to optimize power system dispatch and cost decisions for the 2010 infrastructure under 100 years of historical and future (2050 horizon) hydroclimate conditions. We use economic metrics as well as operational metrics such as generation portfolio, emissions, and reserve margins to assess the changes in power system operations between historical and future normal and extreme water availability conditions. We provide insight on how this information can be used to support resource adequacy and grid expansion studies over the Western U.S. in the context of inter-annual variability and climate change.

WaterSMART-The Colorado River Basin focus-area study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bruce, Breton W.

2012-01-01

Increasing demand for the limited water resources of the United States continues to put pressure on water-resource agencies to balance the competing needs of ecosystem health with municipal, agricultural, and recreational uses. In 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) identified a National Water Census as one of six pivotal future science directions for the USGS in the following decade. The envisioned USGS National Water Census would evaluate large-scale effects of changes in land use and land cover, water use, and climate on water availability, water quality, and human and aquatic ecosystem health. The passage of the SECURE (Science and Engineering to Comprehensively Understand and Responsibly Enhance) Water Act in 2009 was a key step towards implementing the USGS National Water Census. Section 9508 of the Act authorizes a "national water availability and use assessment program" within the USGS (1) to provide a more accurate assessment of the status of the water resources of the United States; and (2) to develop the science for improved forecasts of the availability of water for future economic, energy production, and environmental uses. Initial funding for the USGS to begin working on the National Water Census came with the approval of the U.S. Department of the Interior's WaterSMART (Sustain and Manage America's Resources for Tomorrow) Initiative. The WaterSMART Initiative provides funding to the USGS, Bureau of Reclamation, and U.S. Department of Energy to achieve a sustainable water strategy to meet the Nation's water needs. WaterSMART funding also allowed the USGS to begin the national Water Availability and Use Assessment, as called for under the SECURE Water Act.

Energy-Water Modeling and Analysis | Energy Analysis | NREL

Science.gov Websites

future electricity scenarios under cases of limited water availability and electricity sector impacts of Manufacturing Water Use The Water Intensity and Resource Impacts of Unconventional Hydrocarbon Development Impacts of Unconventional Hydrocarbon Development Life Cycle Harmonization Project (Water) Sample

Future land-use related water demand in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

2016-01-01

Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water use restrictions. Increases in population and land use in coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available water supplies. We used a state-and-transition simulation model to project future changes in developed (municipal and industrial) and agricultural land use to estimate associated water use demand from 2012 to 2062. Under current efficiency rates, total water use was projected to increase 1.8 billion cubic meters(+4.1%) driven primarily by urbanization and shifts to more water intensive crops. Only if currently mandated 25% reductions in municipal water use are continuously implemented would water demand in 2062 balance to water use levels in 2012. This is the first modeling effort of its kind to examine regional land-use related water demand incorporating historical trends of both developed and agricultural land uses.

Harmonizing human-hydrological system under climate change: A scenario-based approach for the case of the headwaters of the Tagus River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lobanova, Anastasia; Liersch, Stefan; Tàbara, J. David; Koch, Hagen; Hattermann, Fred F.; Krysanova, Valentina

2017-05-01

Conventional water management strategies, that serve solely socio-economic demands and neglect changing natural conditions of the river basins, face significant challenges in governing complex human-hydrological systems, especially in the areas with constrained water availability. In this study we assess the possibility to harmonize the inter-sectoral water allocation scheme within a highly altered human-hydrological system under reduction in water availability, triggered by projected climate change applying scenario-based approach. The Tagus River Basin headwaters, with significant disproportion in the water resources allocation between the environmental and socio-economic targets were taken as a perfect example of such system out of balance. We propose three different water allocation strategies for this region, including two conventional schemes and one imposing shift to sustainable water management and environmental restoration of the river. We combine in one integrated modelling framework the eco-hydrological process-based Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM), coupled with the conceptual reservoir and water allocation modules driven by the latest bias-corrected climate projections for the region and investigate possible water allocation scenarios in the region under constrained water availability in the future. Our results show that the socio-economic demands have to be re-considered and lowered under any water allocation strategy, as the climate impacts may significantly reduce water availability in the future. Further, we show that a shift to sustainable water management strategy and river restoration is possible even under reduced water availability. Finally, our results suggest that the adaptation of complex human-hydrological systems to climate change and a shift to a more sustainable water management are likely to be parts of one joint strategy to cope with climate change impacts.

Impacts of Potential Changes in Land Use, Climate, and Water Use on Water Availability, Coastal Carolinas Region, Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurley, L. N.; Garcia, A. M.

2017-12-01

Sustainable growth in coastal areas with rapidly increasing populations, such as the coastal regions of North and South Carolina, relies on an understanding of the current state of coastal natural resources coupled with the ability to assess future impacts of changing coastal communities and resources. Changes in climate, water use, population, and land use (e.g. urbanization) will place additional stress on societal and ecological systems that are already competing for water resources. The potential effects of these stressors on water availability are not fully known. To meet societal and ecological needs, water resources management and planning efforts require estimates of likely impacts of population growth, land-use, and climate. Two Soil and Water Assessment (SWAT) hydrologic models were developed to help address the challenges that water managers face in the Carolinas: the (1) Cape Fear and (2) Pee Dee drainage basins. SWAT is a basin-scale, process-based watershed model with the capability of simulating water-management scenarios. Model areas were divided into two square mile sub-basins to evaluate ecological response at headwater streams. The sub-basins were subsequently divided into smaller, discrete hydrologic response units based on land use, slope, and soil type. Monthly and annual water-use data were used for 2000 to 2014 and included estimates of municipal, industrial, agricultural, and commercial water use. Models were calibrated for 2000 to 2014 and potential future streamflows were estimated through 2060 based on a suite of scenarios that integrated land use change projections, climate projections and water-use forecasts. The approaches and new techniques developed as part of this research could be applied to other coastal areas that face similar current and future water availability demands.

Water supply and management concepts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leopold, Luna Bergere

1965-01-01

If I had to cite one fact about water in the United States which would be not only the most important but also the most informative, the one I would choose would k this: Over 50 percent of all the water presently being used in the United States is used by industry, and nearly all of that is used for cooling.The large amount of attention recently being given to water shortage and the expected rapid increase in demand for water is probably to some extent clouded because there are certain simple facts about water availability and water use which, though readily available, are not generally either known or understood.Probably most people react to information in the public press about present and possible future water shortages with the thought that it is going to be more difficult in the future to supply the ordinary household with water for drinking, washing, and tbe culinary arts. As a matter of fact that may be true to some extent, but it is not the salient aspect.

Developing Our Water Resources

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Volker, Adriaan

1977-01-01

Only very recently developed as a refined scientific discipline, hydrology has to cope with a complexity of problems concerning the present and future management of a vital natural resource, water. This article examines available water supplies and the problems and prospects of water resource development. (Author/MA)

Water resource sensitivity from a Mediterranean perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyon, S. W.; Klein, J.; Archibald, J. A.; Walter, T.

2012-12-01

The water cycle in semiarid environments is intimately connected to plant-water interactions making these regions sensitive to both future climatic changes and landuse alterations. This study explores the sensitivity of water resource availability from a Mediterranean perspective using the Navarino Environmental Observatory (NEO) in Costa Navarino, Greece as a large-scale laboratory for developing and testing the potential resource impacts of various landuse/climatic trajectories. Direct measurements of evapotranspiration were combined with Penman-Monteith estimates to compare water vapor flux variability across the gradient of current management conditions found within the NEO landscape. These range from native, non-managed vegetation to historic, traditionally managed agriculture to modern, actively managed recreational lands. These management conditions greatly impact the vertical flux of water vapor in this semiarid landscape. Our evapotranspiration estimates were placed into a process-based modeling framework to characterize the current state of regional water resource availability and simulate future trajectories (and the associated uncertainties) in response to landuse/climatic changes. This region is quite sensitive with regards to water cycle modifications due to the anthropogenic redistribution of water within and across the landscape. Such sensitivity typifies that expected for much of the Mediterranean region, highlighting the NEO as a potential key location for future observation and investigation.

Future water supply and demand in response to climate change and agricultural expansion in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K.; Zhou, T.; Gao, H.; Huang, M.

2016-12-01

With ongoing global environmental change and an increasing population, it is challenging (to say the least) to understand the complex interactions of irrigation and reservoir systems. Irrigation is critical to agricultural production and food security, and is a vital component of Texas' agricultural economy. Agricultural irrigation currently accounts for about 60% of total water demand in Texas, and recent occurrences of severe droughts has brought attention to the availability and use of water in the future. In this study, we aim to assess future agricultural irrigation water demand, and to estimate how changes in the fraction of crop irrigated land will affect future water availability in Texas, which has the largest farm area and the highest value of livestock production in the United States. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which has been calibrated and validated over major Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed for this study. The VIC model, coupling with an irrigation scheme and a reservoir module, is adopted to simulate the water management and regulations. The evolution on agricultural land is also considered in the model as a changing fraction of crop for each grid cell. The reservoir module is calibrated and validated based on the historical (1915-2011) storage records of major reservoirs in Texas. The model is driven by statistically downscaled climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The lowest (RCP 2.6) and highest (RC P8.5) greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios are adopted for future projections to provide an estimate of uncertainty bounds. We expect that our results will be helpful to assist decision making related to reservoir operations and agricultural water planning for Texas under future climate and environmental changes.

Water law as an adaptation strategy for global water scarcity in the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kakinuma, K.; Yoshikawa, S.; Endo, T.; Kanae, S.

2014-12-01

Water scarcity due to climate changes and growing human population is a major concern for the world. Adaptation and mitigation strategies should be developed for water scarcity in the future. Previous studies assessed the future water availability by hard technology (e.g., reservoirs, reclaimed and desalinated water plants) as adaptation strategies. On the other hand, soft path such as water law and policy would also be important for adaptation strategies. Water transfers is reallocation of water among water users. For example, distribution of the amount of available water is often heterogeneous especially during drought periods. If water transfers are permitted in these areas, water can be moved from surplus areas/sections to critical need areas/sections. There are several studies which describe the water transfer at the local scales (i.e., water bank in California), however the factors that determined the establishment of water transfer are not clear. If we can detect the factors, it could be used to estimate in which areas the water transfer would come into existence. This in turn would reduce the water stress. Here, we focus on historical interaction between human activity and water environments. Generally, rules of water use are developed by repeated discussion among water users. The frequency of these discussions would be related with their land use, frequency of drought and water resource sizes. For example, people in rice crop area need to discuss about water allocation compared to wheat crop area. Therefore, we examine the relationship between the permission of water transfer and factors such as water environment and human activity in the world.

Future Availability of Water Supply from Karstic Springs under Probable Climate Change. The case of Aravissos, Central Macedonia, Greece.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vafeiadis, M.; Spachos, Th.; Zampetoglou, K.; Soupilas, Th.

2012-04-01

The test site of Aravissos is located at 70 Km to the West (W-NW) of Thessaloniki at the south banks of mount Païko, in the north part of Central Macedonia The karstic Aravissos springs supply 40% of total volume needed for the water supply of Thessaloniki, Greece. As the water is of excellent quality, it is feed directly in the distribution network without any previous treatment. The availability of this source is therefore of high importance for the sustainable water supply of this area with almost 1000000 inhabitants. The water system of Aravissos is developed in a karstic limestone with an age of about Late Cretaceous that covers almost the entire western part of the big-anticline of Païko Mountain. The climate in this area and the water consumption area, Thessaloniki, is a typical Mediterranean climate with mild and humid winters and hot and dry summers. The total annual number of rainy days is around 110. The production of the Aravissos springs depends mostly from the annual precipitations. As the feeding catchement and the karst aquifer are not well defined, a practical empirical balance model, that contains only well known relevant terms, is applied for the simulation of the operation of the springs under normal water extraction for water supply in present time. The estimation of future weather conditions are based on GCM and RCM simulation data and the extension of trend lines of the actual data. The future evolution of the availability of adequate water quantities from the springs is finally estimated from the balance model and the simulated future climatic data. This study has been realised within the project CC-WaterS, funded by the SEE program of the European Regional Development Fund (http://www.ccwaters.eu/).

America's Water in the 20th Century: Measures to address climate induced risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devineni, N.

2017-12-01

This work develops an understanding of water risk for USA considering linkages between water supply and competing demands. It explores how climate variability and changing water demands manifest as water deficits and how public-private management decisions determine regional water availability and drought resilience. We develop insights on regional water risks, infrastructure investments, sectoral allocation and policy modifications for America's future water sustainability. In this talk, I will focus on demonstrating how the variations in climate over the last century influenced changes in water use across the continent USA. A peak into our interactive modeling environment for future evolution of water use and supply will also be provided.

Is the available cropland and water enough for food demand? A global perspective of the Land-Water-Food nexus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibarrola-Rivas, M. J.; Granados-Ramírez, R.; Nonhebel, S.

2017-12-01

Land and water are essential local resources for food production but are limited. The main drivers of increasing food demand are population growth and dietary changes, which depend on the socioeconomic situation of the population. These two factors affect the availability of local resources: population growth reduces the land and water per person; and adoption of affluent diets increases the demand for land and water per person. This study shows potentials of global food supply by linking food demand drivers with national land and water availability. Whether the available land and water is enough to meet national food demand was calculated for 187 countries. The calculations were performed for the past situation (1960 and 2010) and to assess four future scenarios (2050) to discuss different paths of diets, population numbers and agricultural expansion. Inclusion of the demand perspective in the analysis has shown stronger challenges for future global food supply than have other studies. The results show that with the "business as usual" scenario, 40% of the global population in 2050 will live in countries with not enough land nor water to meet the demands of their population. Restriction to basic diets will be the most effective in lowering both land and water constraints. Our results identify both food production and food demand factors, and the regions that may experience the strongest challenges in 2050.

Past and future water conflicts in the Upper Klamath Basin: An economic appraisal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boehlert, Brent B.; Jaeger, William K.

2010-10-01

The water conflict in the Upper Klamath Basin typifies the growing competition between agricultural and environmental water uses. In 2001, drought conditions triggered Endangered Species Act-related requirements that curtailed irrigation diversions to the Klamath Reclamation Project, costing irrigators tens of millions of dollars. Although this event has significantly elevated the perceived risk of future economic catastrophe in the basin (and therefore the level of conflict among water users), several key changes related to water availability have occurred since 2001. These changes include reduced ESA requirements and increased groundwater pumping capacity, which have lowered the actual risk and severity of future water shortages. In this paper, we use a mathematical programming model to evaluate how these changes alter the likelihood and economic consequences of future shortages. We also consider the effect of more flexible transfers among irrigators via water markets. Our analysis indicates that future drought conditions like those seen in 2001 would have more modest economic impacts than in 2001 and that when combined with contingent groundwater supplementation and water transfer mechanisms such as water markets, both the likelihood and magnitude of economic losses among irrigators would be greatly reduced.

Quantifying human impact on hydrological drought using an Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Huijgevoort, Marjolein; Chaney, Nathaniel; Malyshev, Sergey; Shevliakova, Elena; Milly, Chris

2017-04-01

Predicting the human impact on the present and future hydrological cycle remains a significant scientific challenge. Anthropogenic impact includes water management practices like diverting water for irrigation, abstraction of groundwater, and reservoirs. Hydrological extremes, in particular, are heavily affected by water management practices, due to the existing stress on the system during droughts and floods. Therefore, to prepare adaptation plans for hydrological extremes in the future, it is essential to account for water management and other human influences in Earth System Models. In this study we have implemented water management practices in the state-of-the-art GFDL land model, which includes terrestrial water, energy, and carbon balances. Both irrigation practices and reservoirs have been added in the land surface model component of the model. Irrigation amounts are determined from the soil water balance, the evaporative demand of the vegetation and fractional coverage of croplands. The resulting water demand is fulfilled by abstractions from surface water and groundwater. Reservoir outflow is dynamically coupled to the downstream water demand and available reservoir storage. Retrospective model simulations over the contiguous United States indicate a strong human influence on hydrological drought. A water management attribution analysis shows a significant impact on the water availability, mostly in the Midwest of the United States and California. Implementation of reservoirs alters the flow regime, thereby decreasing the short-term drought impact, however, in the case of multi-year drought, impacts are delayed due to the dependency on the reservoir outflow. Irrigation, on the other hand, decreases the water availability in rivers due to increased evapotranspiration leading to a higher drought impact. The average increase in evapotranspiration amounted up to 2 mm/day for cropland areas in California and Texas. Overall, the results show the importance of including water management in global scale models. This new modelling framework can be used to understand how humans will impact future water availability, water scarcity, and drought. Next steps will include coupled model simulations to investigate the human impact on feedbacks in land-atmosphere interactions.

Analyzing long-term spatial variability of blue and green water footprints in a semi-arid mountainous basin with MIROC-ESM model (case study: Kashafrood River Basin, Iran)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aghakhani Afshar, A.; Hassanzadeh, Y.; Pourreza-Bilondi, M.; Ahmadi, A.

2017-11-01

The river basin hydrology cycles and the available water resources (including blue and green water) are greatly influenced by the climate change and rainfall patterns in regions with arid and semi-arid climates. In this study, the impacts of climate change on the parameters of virtual water is evaluated in the Kashafrood River (KR), as a large-scale basin which is located in the northeast of Iran, by means of SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) along with SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Program version 2). In addition, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are taken into account at five runoff stations for calibrating and validating the model. Based on the changes in blue water (BW), green water flow (GWF), and green water storage (GWS), the water availability was analyzed using MIROC-ESM model in series of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and was compared with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of new emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). These emission scenarios were downscaled based on the observed data under three future periods: near future (2014-2042), intermediate future (2043-2071), and far future (2072-2100) in relation to a historical period (1992-2013). Calibration and validation at multi-site (five stations) showed a proper performance of the SWAT model in modeling hydrological processes. Results of investigating climate change impacts on the blue and green water components (BW and GW) showed that in the historical period, the basin was not in an appropriate climate condition for accessing the water resources. Also, in future times, considerable spatial variations in different hydrological components were observed. On the other hand, under both RCPs and in all three future periods in relative to historical period, the BW contents will increase about 46-74%, while GWF will decrease about 2-15%. Regarding the historical period, it was revealed that the condition of the basin will be improved. In addition, the GWS tended to rise about 11-18% or decrease about 6-60% in the future. The BW and GWS will decrease, and GWS will increase by changing from the near future to the intermediate future. On the other hand, by changing from the intermediate to the far future, BW and GWF will increase under RCP2.6 and will decrease under RCP8.5, respectively. Also, GWS will decrease under both RCPs.

Xanthos – A Global Hydrologic Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Xinya; Vernon, Chris R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.

Xanthos is an open-source hydrologic model, written in Python, designed to quantify and analyse global water availability. Xanthos simulates historical and future global water availability on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of 0.5 geographic degrees. Xanthos was designed to be extensible and used by scientists that study global water supply and work with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Xanthos uses a user-defined configuration file to specify model inputs, outputs and parameters. Xanthos has been tested using actual global data sets and the model is able to provide historical observations and future estimates of renewable freshwater resourcesmore » in the form of total runoff.« less

Xanthos – A Global Hydrologic Model

DOE PAGES

Li, Xinya; Vernon, Chris R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; ...

2017-09-11

Xanthos is an open-source hydrologic model, written in Python, designed to quantify and analyse global water availability. Xanthos simulates historical and future global water availability on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of 0.5 geographic degrees. Xanthos was designed to be extensible and used by scientists that study global water supply and work with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Xanthos uses a user-defined configuration file to specify model inputs, outputs and parameters. Xanthos has been tested using actual global data sets and the model is able to provide historical observations and future estimates of renewable freshwater resourcesmore » in the form of total runoff.« less

A Novel Application of Agent-based Modeling: Projecting Water Access and Availability Using a Coupled Hydrologic Agent-based Model in the Nzoia Basin, Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, A.; Pricope, N. G.

2015-12-01

Projections indicate that increasing population density, food production, and urbanization in conjunction with changing climate conditions will place stress on water resource availability. As a result, a holistic understanding of current and future water resource distribution is necessary for creating strategies to identify the most sustainable means of accessing this resource. Currently, most water resource management strategies rely on the application of global climate predictions to physically based hydrologic models to understand potential changes in water availability. However, the need to focus on understanding community-level social behaviors that determine individual water usage is becoming increasingly evident, as predictions derived only from hydrologic models cannot accurately represent the coevolution of basin hydrology and human water and land usage. Models that are better equipped to represent the complexity and heterogeneity of human systems and satellite-derived products in place of or in conjunction with historic data significantly improve preexisting hydrologic model accuracy and application outcomes. We used a novel agent-based sociotechnical model that combines the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Agent Analyst and applied it in the Nzoia Basin, an area in western Kenya that is becoming rapidly urbanized and industrialized. Informed by a combination of satellite-derived products and over 150 household surveys, the combined sociotechnical model provided unique insight into how populations self-organize and make decisions based on water availability. In addition, the model depicted how population organization and current management alter water availability currently and in the future.

In ecoregions across western USA streamflow increases during post-wildfire recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wine, Michael L.; Cadol, Daniel; Makhnin, Oleg

2018-01-01

Continued growth of the human population on Earth will increase pressure on already stressed terrestrial water resources required for drinking water, agriculture, and industry. This stress demands improved understanding of critical controls on water resource availability, particularly in water-limited regions. Mechanistic predictions of future water resource availability are needed because non-stationary conditions exist in the form of changing climatic conditions, land management paradigms, and ecological disturbance regimes. While historically ecological disturbances have been small and could be neglected relative to climatic effects, evidence is accumulating that ecological disturbances, particularly wildfire, can increase regional water availability. However, wildfire hydrologic impacts are typically estimated locally and at small spatial scales, via disparate measurement methods and analysis techniques, and outside the context of climate change projections. Consequently, the relative importance of climate change driven versus wildfire driven impacts on streamflow remains unknown across the western USA. Here we show that considering wildfire in modeling streamflow significantly improves model predictions. Mixed effects modeling attributed 2%-14% of long-term annual streamflow to wildfire effects. The importance of this wildfire-linked streamflow relative to predicted climate change-induced streamflow reductions ranged from 20%-370% of the streamflow decrease predicted to occur by 2050. The rate of post-wildfire vegetation recovery and the proportion of watershed area burned controlled the wildfire effect. Our results demonstrate that in large areas of the western USA affected by wildfire, regional predictions of future water availability are subject to greater structural uncertainty than previously thought. These results suggest that future streamflows may be underestimated in areas affected by increased prevalence of hydrologically relevant ecological disturbances such as wildfire.

Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India

PubMed Central

Conway, Declan; Dessai, Suraje; Stainforth, David A.

2018-01-01

Abstract Decision‐Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) approaches have been less utilized in developing countries than developed countries for water resources contexts. High climate vulnerability and rapid socioeconomic change often characterize developing country contexts, making DMUU approaches relevant. We develop an iterative multi‐method DMUU approach, including scenario generation, coproduction with stakeholders and water resources modeling. We apply this approach to explore the robustness of adaptation options and pathways against future climate and socioeconomic uncertainties in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India. A water resources model is calibrated and validated satisfactorily using observed streamflow. Plausible future changes in Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation and water demand are used to drive simulations of water resources from 2021 to 2055. Two stakeholder‐identified decision‐critical metrics are examined: a basin‐wide metric comprising legal instream flow requirements for the downstream state of Tamil Nadu, and a local metric comprising water supply reliability to Bangalore city. In model simulations, the ability to satisfy these performance metrics without adaptation is reduced under almost all scenarios. Implementing adaptation options can partially offset the negative impacts of change. Sequencing of options according to stakeholder priorities into Adaptation Pathways affects metric satisfaction. Early focus on agricultural demand management improves the robustness of pathways but trade‐offs emerge between intrabasin and basin‐wide water availability. We demonstrate that the fine balance between water availability and demand is vulnerable to future changes and uncertainty. Despite current and long‐term planning challenges, stakeholders in developing countries may engage meaningfully in coproduction approaches for adaptation decision‐making under deep uncertainty. PMID:29706676

Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India.

PubMed

Bhave, Ajay Gajanan; Conway, Declan; Dessai, Suraje; Stainforth, David A

2018-02-01

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) approaches have been less utilized in developing countries than developed countries for water resources contexts. High climate vulnerability and rapid socioeconomic change often characterize developing country contexts, making DMUU approaches relevant. We develop an iterative multi-method DMUU approach, including scenario generation, coproduction with stakeholders and water resources modeling. We apply this approach to explore the robustness of adaptation options and pathways against future climate and socioeconomic uncertainties in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India. A water resources model is calibrated and validated satisfactorily using observed streamflow. Plausible future changes in Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation and water demand are used to drive simulations of water resources from 2021 to 2055. Two stakeholder-identified decision-critical metrics are examined: a basin-wide metric comprising legal instream flow requirements for the downstream state of Tamil Nadu, and a local metric comprising water supply reliability to Bangalore city. In model simulations, the ability to satisfy these performance metrics without adaptation is reduced under almost all scenarios. Implementing adaptation options can partially offset the negative impacts of change. Sequencing of options according to stakeholder priorities into Adaptation Pathways affects metric satisfaction. Early focus on agricultural demand management improves the robustness of pathways but trade-offs emerge between intrabasin and basin-wide water availability. We demonstrate that the fine balance between water availability and demand is vulnerable to future changes and uncertainty. Despite current and long-term planning challenges, stakeholders in developing countries may engage meaningfully in coproduction approaches for adaptation decision-making under deep uncertainty.

Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhave, Ajay Gajanan; Conway, Declan; Dessai, Suraje; Stainforth, David A.

2018-02-01

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) approaches have been less utilized in developing countries than developed countries for water resources contexts. High climate vulnerability and rapid socioeconomic change often characterize developing country contexts, making DMUU approaches relevant. We develop an iterative multi-method DMUU approach, including scenario generation, coproduction with stakeholders and water resources modeling. We apply this approach to explore the robustness of adaptation options and pathways against future climate and socioeconomic uncertainties in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India. A water resources model is calibrated and validated satisfactorily using observed streamflow. Plausible future changes in Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation and water demand are used to drive simulations of water resources from 2021 to 2055. Two stakeholder-identified decision-critical metrics are examined: a basin-wide metric comprising legal instream flow requirements for the downstream state of Tamil Nadu, and a local metric comprising water supply reliability to Bangalore city. In model simulations, the ability to satisfy these performance metrics without adaptation is reduced under almost all scenarios. Implementing adaptation options can partially offset the negative impacts of change. Sequencing of options according to stakeholder priorities into Adaptation Pathways affects metric satisfaction. Early focus on agricultural demand management improves the robustness of pathways but trade-offs emerge between intrabasin and basin-wide water availability. We demonstrate that the fine balance between water availability and demand is vulnerable to future changes and uncertainty. Despite current and long-term planning challenges, stakeholders in developing countries may engage meaningfully in coproduction approaches for adaptation decision-making under deep uncertainty.

Water management in container nurseries to minimize pests

Treesearch

R. Kasten Dumroese; Diane L. Haase

2018-01-01

Water is the most important and most common chemical used in plant nurseries. It is also the most dangerous chemical used. Insufficient water, excessive water, and poorly timed irrigation can all lead to poor-quality crops and unacceptable mortality. Anticipated future declines of water availability, higher costs to use it, and continuing concerns about irrigation...

Review of Available Water-Quality Data for the Southern Colorado Plateau Network and Characterization of Water Quality in Five Selected Park Units in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah, 1925 to 2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Juliane B.

2008-01-01

Historical water-quality data in the National Park Service Southern Colorado Plateau Network have been collected irregularly and with little followup interpretation, restricting the value of the data. To help address these issues, to inform future water-quality monitoring planning efforts, and to address relevant National Park Service Inventory and Monitoring Program objectives, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, compiled, reviewed, and summarized available historical water-quality data for 19 park units in the Southern Colorado Plateau Network. The data are described in terms of availability by major water-quality classes, park unit, site type, and selected identified water sources. The report also describes the geology, water resources, water-quality issues, data gaps, and water-quality standard exceedances identified in five of the park units determined to be of high priority. The five park units are Bandelier National Monument in New Mexico, Canyon de Chelly National Monument in Arizona, Chaco Culture National Historical Park in New Mexico, Glen Canyon National Recreation Area in Arizona and Utah, and Mesa Verde National Park in Colorado. Statistical summaries of water-quality characteristics are presented and considerations for future water-quality monitoring are provided for these five park units.

GRACE satellite observations reveal the severity of recent water over-consumption in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Solander, Kurt C.; Reager, John T.; Wada, Yoshihide

Changes in the climate and population growth will critically impact the future supply and demand of water, leading to large uncertainties for sustainable resource management. In the absence of on-the-ground measurements to provide spatially continuous, high-resolution information on water supplies, satellite observations can provide essential insight. Here, we develop a technique using observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite to evaluate the sustainability of surface water and groundwater use over the continental United States. We determine the annual total water availability for 2003–2015 using the annual variability in GRACE-derived total water storage for 18 major watersheds. Themore » long-term sustainable water quantity available to humans is calculated by subtracting an annual estimate of the water needed to maintain local ecosystems, and the resulting water volumes are compared to reported consumptive water use to determine a sustainability fraction. We find over-consumption is highest in the southwest US, where increasing stress trends were observed in all five basins and annual consumptive use exceeded 100% availability twice in the Lower Colorado basin during 2003–2015. By providing a coarse-scale evaluation of sustainable water use from satellite and ground observations, the established framework serves as a blueprint for future large-scale water resource monitoring.« less

GRACE satellite observations reveal the severity of recent water over-consumption in the United States

DOE PAGES

Solander, Kurt C.; Reager, John T.; Wada, Yoshihide; ...

2017-08-18

Changes in the climate and population growth will critically impact the future supply and demand of water, leading to large uncertainties for sustainable resource management. In the absence of on-the-ground measurements to provide spatially continuous, high-resolution information on water supplies, satellite observations can provide essential insight. Here, we develop a technique using observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite to evaluate the sustainability of surface water and groundwater use over the continental United States. We determine the annual total water availability for 2003–2015 using the annual variability in GRACE-derived total water storage for 18 major watersheds. Themore » long-term sustainable water quantity available to humans is calculated by subtracting an annual estimate of the water needed to maintain local ecosystems, and the resulting water volumes are compared to reported consumptive water use to determine a sustainability fraction. We find over-consumption is highest in the southwest US, where increasing stress trends were observed in all five basins and annual consumptive use exceeded 100% availability twice in the Lower Colorado basin during 2003–2015. By providing a coarse-scale evaluation of sustainable water use from satellite and ground observations, the established framework serves as a blueprint for future large-scale water resource monitoring.« less

Understanding surface-water availability in the Central Valley as a means to projecting future groundwater storage with climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodrich, J. P.; Cayan, D. R.

2017-12-01

California's Central Valley (CV) relies heavily on diverted surface water and groundwater pumping to supply irrigated agriculture. However, understanding the spatiotemporal character of water availability in the CV is difficult because of the number of individual farms and local, state, and federal agencies involved in using and managing water. Here we use the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM), developed by the USGS, to understand the relationships between climatic variability, surface water inputs, and resulting groundwater use over the historical period 1970-2013. We analyzed monthly surface water diversion data from >500 CV locations. Principle components analyses were applied to drivers constructed from meteorological data, surface reservoir storage, ET, land use cover, and upstream inflows, to feed multiple regressions and identify factors most important in predicting surface water diversions. Two thirds of the diversion locations ( 80% of total diverted water) can be predicted to within 15%. Along with monthly inputs, representations of cumulative precipitation over the previous 3 to 36 months can explain an additional 10% of variance, depending on location, compared to results that excluded this information. Diversions in the southern CV are highly sensitive to inter-annual variability in precipitation (R2 = 0.8), whereby more surface water is used during wet years. Until recently, this was not the case in the northern and mid-CV, where diversions were relatively constant annually, suggesting relative insensitivity to drought. In contrast, this has important implications for drought response in southern regions (eg. Tulare Basin) where extended dry conditions can severely limit surface water supplies and lead to excess groundwater pumping, storage loss, and subsidence. In addition to fueling our understanding of spatiotemporal variability in diversions, our ability to predict these water balance components allows us to update CVHM predictions before surface water data are compiled. We can then develop groundwater pumping and storage predictions in real time, and make them available to water managers. In addition, we are working toward future projections by coupling the regional CVHM to downscaled GCM output to assess future scenarios of water availability in this critical region.

Integrated management of water resources demand and supply in irrigated agriculture from plot to regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schütze, Niels; Wagner, Michael

2016-05-01

Growing water scarcity in agriculture is an increasing problem in future in many regions of the world. Recent trends of weather extremes in Saxony, Germany also enhance drought risks for agricultural production. In addition, signals of longer and more intense drought conditions during the vegetation period can be found in future regional climate scenarios for Saxony. However, those climate predictions are associated with high uncertainty and therefore, e.g. stochastic methods are required to analyze the impact of changing climate patterns on future crop water requirements and water availability. For assessing irrigation as a measure to increase agricultural water security a generalized stochastic approach for a spatial distributed estimation of future irrigation water demand is proposed, which ensures safe yields and a high water productivity at the same time. The developed concept of stochastic crop water production functions (SCWPF) can serve as a central decision support tool for both, (i) a cost benefit analysis of farm irrigation modernization on a local scale and (ii) a regional water demand management using a multi-scale approach for modeling and implementation. The new approach is applied using the example of a case study in Saxony, which is dealing with the sustainable management of future irrigation water demands and its implementation.

Future for sorghum regarding its water use

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Despite the planet's Earth appearance from space, water is a minor component of the plant's mass and the considerably less is present as fresh water available for crop production. Sorghum is ideally suited for grain and silage production in water limited areas because of its ability to yield higher ...

Integrated Assessment of Global Water Scarcity over the 21st Century under Multiple Climate Change Mitigation Policies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.

2014-01-01

Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14more » geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and a global population of 14 billion by 2095, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demand for water exceeds the amount of water availability in two GCAM regions, the Middle East and India. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 20% and 27% of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in areas (grid cells) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change.« less

Current and projected water demand and water availability estimates under climate change scenarios in the Weyib River basin in Bale mountainous area of Southeastern Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serur, Abdulkerim Bedewi; Sarma, Arup Kumar

2017-07-01

This study intended to estimate the spatial and temporal variation of current and projected water demand and water availability under climate change scenarios in Weyib River basin, Bale mountainous area of Southeastern Ethiopia. Future downscaled climate variables from three Earth System Models under the three RCP emission scenarios were inputted into ArcSWAT hydrological model to simulate different components of water resources of a basin whereas current and projected human and livestock population of the basin is considered to estimate the total annual water demand for various purposes. Results revealed that the current total annual water demand of the basin is found to be about 289 Mm3, and this has to increase by 83.47% after 15 years, 200.67% after 45 years, and 328.78% after 75 years by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from base period water demand mainly due to very rapid increasing population (40.81, 130.80, and 229.12% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively) and climatic variability. The future average annual total water availability in the basin is observed to be increased by ranging from 15.04 to 21.61, 20.08 to 23.34, and 16.21 to 39.53% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s time slice, respectively, from base period available water resources (2333.39 Mm3). The current water availability per capita per year of the basin is about 3112.23 m3 and tends to decline ranging from 11.78 to 17.49, 46.02 to 47.45, and 57.18 to 64.34% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from base period per capita per year water availability. This indicated that there might be possibility to fall the basin under water stress condition in the long term.

Assessment and management of water resources in Egypt to face drought and water scarcity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolters, Wouter; El Guindy, Samia; Salah El Deen, Magdy; Roest, Koen; Smit, Robert; Froebrich, Jochen

2013-04-01

Egypt is one of the countries hardest hit by global and climate change. Challenges include population growth; increased demands for food, water, and energy; as well as changing land use patterns and urbanization. Egypt's part of the Mediterranean is characterized by a very complex hydrological system, as it lacks rainfall (Cairo average 30 mm/year) and it is completely dependent on the Nile river flow. The growth of the Egyptian population and its economy in the near future leads to an increase in the demand for water and the overall water allocation priority basically is: first drinking water, then industry, and whatever is remaining will be available for agriculture and nature. Because the agricultural sector uses more than 80 per cent of available water, the main option available to reduce water scarcity in the priority sectors of the economy is to allocate less to the agriculture sector. Scientifically based advances in facing future drought and water scarcity through innovations increasing yields and food security by measures leading to "more crop per drop" are required. New and modern large- and medium-scale agriculture is being developed in desert areas with participation of the private sector for investments. To prepare the farming community and others elsewhere, for the future situation of water shortages, a paradigm shift is needed. New farming systems under tight water supply conditions are in development to prepare for a future with less water. Egyptian farming systems need a major transition to prevent further marginalization of agriculture, which would also have a major impact on food security. Central to this transition should be the increase of value generated per volume available water, also referred to as "more crop per drop" or "more cash per splash". There is room for the urgently required improvement: the present return on water in agriculture in Egypt is about US 0.25 /m3, where values of over US 1 /m3 are "easily" reached elsewhere. Moreover, innovations on resource efficiency enabling use of rest and by-products of one agricultural activity as an input for another one will be profitable for the food producers and will also be better for the environment. The creative design process to reach the required technological and policy innovations contributes to the developed adaptation strategy to face drought and water scarcity. Results will incorporate some previously un-thought of options. The issues of water scarcity and drought have consequences and implications that can no longer be adequately addressed by any one of the Ministries alone. Many other government departments and agencies must be involved and decisions will have to be made at the highest political level. All policies in Egypt must be conscious of the limitations in water availability, and water policies need to address technological developments as well as the full range of other issues, including: macro-economic factors, economic issues that influence farm-level decisions, development of human capital, governance, and financial risk management.

Water Availability--The Connection Between Water Use and Quality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hirsch, Robert M.; Hamilton, Pixie A.; Miller, Timothy L.; Myers, Donna N.

2008-01-01

Water availability has become a high priority in the United States, in large part because competition for water is becoming more intense across the Nation. Population growth in many areas competes with demands for water to support irrigation and power production. Cities, farms, and power plants compete for water needed by aquatic ecosystems to support their minimum flow requirements. At the same time, naturally occurring and human-related contaminants from chemical use, land use, and wastewater and industrial discharge are introduced into our waters and diminish its quality. The fact that degraded quality limits the availability and suitability of water for critical uses is a well-known reality in many communities. What may be less understood, but equally true, is that our everyday use of water can significantly affect water quality, and thus its availability. Landscape features (such as geology, soils, and vegetation) along with water-use practices (such as ground-water withdrawals and irrigation) govern water availability because, together, they affect the movement of chemical compounds over the land and in the subsurface. Understanding the interactions of human activities with natural sources and the landscape is critical to effectively managing water and sustaining water availability in the future.

Are we running out of water?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nace, Raymond L.

1967-01-01

Water supplies are not running out, but time is getting short to stem waste of water and destructive exploitation of the environment before harm is done that may be irreparable. Most of the world's water is oceanic brine. Of the waters on the land, most is frozen in Antarctica and Greenland. Only a small part of continental water is available for use and management. The discharge of rivers to the sea is a close measure of the availability of liquid water, but ground-water reservoirs have important functions as inexpensive equalizers of water supply. Soil moisture is a major factor in the water economy, and its function usually is overlooked in assessments of water use and future water demand. Despite outcries of water shortage, the principal use of water in advanced countries is as a medium for waste disposal. In reality, despite regional maldistribution of water, United States supplies are adequate, given rational management. Also, contrary to common belief, water pollution is primarily a problem of economics, not of health. A paramount problem in most parts of the world is the shortage of water development and management facilities, not a shortage of water. The International Hydrological Decade is a program to awaken people everywhere to the crucial importance of water in man's future and to promote rational approach to water problems.

Technologies for Arsenic Removal from Water: Current Status and Future Perspectives

PubMed Central

Nicomel, Nina Ricci; Leus, Karen; Folens, Karel; Van Der Voort, Pascal; Du Laing, Gijs

2015-01-01

This review paper presents an overview of the available technologies used nowadays for the removal of arsenic species from water. Conventionally applied techniques to remove arsenic species include oxidation, coagulation-flocculation, and membrane techniques. Besides, progress has recently been made on the utility of various nanoparticles for the remediation of contaminated water. A critical analysis of the most widely investigated nanoparticles is presented and promising future research on novel porous materials, such as metal organic frameworks, is suggested. PMID:26703687

Technologies for Arsenic Removal from Water: Current Status and Future Perspectives.

PubMed

Nicomel, Nina Ricci; Leus, Karen; Folens, Karel; Van Der Voort, Pascal; Du Laing, Gijs

2015-12-22

This review paper presents an overview of the available technologies used nowadays for the removal of arsenic species from water. Conventionally applied techniques to remove arsenic species include oxidation, coagulation-flocculation, and membrane techniques. Besides, progress has recently been made on the utility of various nanoparticles for the remediation of contaminated water. A critical analysis of the most widely investigated nanoparticles is presented and promising future research on novel porous materials, such as metal organic frameworks, is suggested.

The Indus basin in the framework of current and future water resources management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laghari, A. N.; Vanham, D.; Rauch, W.

2012-04-01

The Indus basin is one of the regions in the world that is faced with major challenges for its water sector, due to population growth, rapid urbanisation and industrialisation, environmental degradation, unregulated utilization of the resources, inefficient water use and poverty, all aggravated by climate change. The Indus Basin is shared by 4 countries - Pakistan, India, Afghanistan and China. With a current population of 237 million people which is projected to increase to 319 million in 2025 and 383 million in 2050, already today water resources are abstracted almost entirely (more than 95% for irrigation). Climate change will result in increased water availability in the short term. However in the long term water availability will decrease. Some current aspects in the basin need to be re-evaluated. During the past decades water abstractions - and especially groundwater extractions - have augmented continuously to support a rice-wheat system where rice is grown during the kharif (wet, summer) season (as well as sugar cane, cotton, maize and other crops) and wheat during the rabi (dry, winter) season. However, the sustainability of this system in its current form is questionable. Additional water for domestic and industrial purposes is required for the future and should be made available by a reduction in irrigation requirements. This paper gives a comprehensive listing and description of available options for current and future sustainable water resources management (WRM) within the basin. Sustainable WRM practices include both water supply management and water demand management options. Water supply management options include: (1) reservoir management as the basin is characterised by a strong seasonal behaviour in water availability (monsoon and meltwater) and water demands; (2) water quality conservation and investment in wastewater infrastructure; (3) the use of alternative water resources like the recycling of wastewater and desalination; (4) land use planning and soil conservation as well as flood management, with a focus on the reduction of erosion and resulting sedimentation as well as the restoration of ecosystem services like wetlands and natural floodplains. Water demand management options include: (1) the management of conjunctive use of surface and groundwater; as well as (2) the rehabilitation and modernization of existing infrastructure. Other demand management options are: (3) the increase of water productivity for agriculture; (4) crop planning and diversification including the critical assessment of agricultural export, especially (basmati) rice; (5) economic instruments and (6) changing food demand patterns and limiting post-harvest losses.

Changes in continental Europe water cycle in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouholahnejad, Elham; Schirmer, Mario; Abbaspour, Karim

2015-04-01

Changes in atmospheric water vapor content provide strong evidence that the water cycle is already responding to a warming climate. According to IPCC's last report on Climate Change (AR5), the water cycle is expected to intensify in a warmer climate as the atmosphere can hold more water vapor. This changes the frequency of precipitation extremes, increases evaporation and dry periods, and effects the water redistribution in land. This process is represented by most global climate models (GCMs) by increased summer dryness and winter wetness over large areas of continental mid to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, associated with a reduction in water availability at continental scale. Observing changes in precipitation and evaporation directly and at continental scale is difficult, because most of the exchange of fresh water between the atmosphere and the surface happens the oceans. Long term precipitation records are available only from over the land and there are no measurement of evaporation or redistribution of precipitation over the land area. On the other hand, understanding the extent of climate change effects on various components of the water cycle is of strategic importance for public, private sectors, and policy makers when it comes to fresh water management. In order to better understand the extent of climate change impacts on water resources of continental Europe, we developed a distributed hydrological model of Europe at high spatial and temporal resolution using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The hydrological model was calibrated for 1970 to 2006 using daily observation of streamflow and nitrate loads from 360 gauging stations across Europe. A vegetation growth routine was added to the model to better simulate evapotranspiration. The model results were calibrated with available agricultural crop yield data from other sources. As of future climate scenarios, we used the ISI-MIP project results which provides bias-corrected climate data from the GCMs participating in the CMIP5 at 0.5° x 0.5° resolution. Data cover the time period from 1901 to 2099, i.e. the historical period, and future projections for all Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5). We used four different models output (GFDL, HADGEMES, MIROC, and IPSL) for all RCPs for near (2006-2035) and far (3065-2099) future. Multi-model ensembles (16 scenarios) are then used to study the potential impacts of future climate change on fresh water availability across Europe.

Ground-Water Availability in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reilly, Thomas E.; Dennehy, Kevin F.; Alley, William M.; Cunningham, William L.

2008-01-01

Ground water is among the Nation's most important natural resources. It provides half our drinking water and is essential to the vitality of agriculture and industry, as well as to the health of rivers, wetlands, and estuaries throughout the country. Large-scale development of ground-water resources with accompanying declines in ground-water levels and other effects of pumping has led to concerns about the future availability of ground water to meet domestic, agricultural, industrial, and environmental needs. The challenges in determining ground-water availability are many. This report examines what is known about the Nation's ground-water availability and outlines a program of study by the U.S. Geological Survey Ground-Water Resources Program to improve our understanding of ground-water availability in major aquifers across the Nation. The approach is designed to provide useful regional information for State and local agencies who manage ground-water resources, while providing the building blocks for a national assessment. The report is written for a wide audience interested or involved in the management, protection, and sustainable use of the Nation's water resources.

Quantifying present and future glacier melt-water contribution to runoff in a Central Himalayan river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasch, M.; Mauser, W.; Weber, M.

2012-10-01

Water supply of most lowland cultures heavily depends on rain and melt-water from the upstream mountains. Especially melt-water release of alpine mountain ranges is usually attributed a pivotal role for the water supply of large downstream regions. Water scarcity is assumed as consequence of glacier shrinkage and possible disappearance due to Global Climate Change, particular for large parts of Central and South East Asia. In this paper, the application and validation of a coupled modeling approach with Regional Climate Model outputs and a process-oriented glacier and hydrological model is presented for a Central Himalayan river basin despite scarce data availability. Current and possible future contributions of ice-melt to runoff along the river network are spatially explicitly shown. Its role among the other water balance components is presented. Although glaciers have retreated and will continue to retreat according to the chosen climate scenarios, water availability is and will be primarily determined by monsoon precipitation and snow-melt. Ice-melt from glaciers is and will be a minor runoff component in summer monsoon-dominated Himalayan river basins.

76 FR 31973 - Draft WaterSMART Strategic Implementation Plan

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-02

... best available science to understand the impacts of climate change on water supplies; and provide... and time. It is increasingly recognized that water is the primary means through which climate change... environment, and will identify adaptive measures needed to address climate change and future demands. Within...

A Framework Predicting Water Availability in a Rapidly Growing, Semi-Arid Region under Future Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, B.; Benner, S. G.; Glenn, N. F.; Lindquist, E.; Dahal, K. R.; Bolte, J.; Vache, K. B.; Flores, A. N.

2014-12-01

Climate change can lead to dramatic variations in hydrologic regime, affecting both surface water and groundwater supply. This effect is most significant in populated semi-arid regions where water availability are highly sensitive to climate-induced outcomes. However, predicting water availability at regional scales, while resolving some of the key internal variability and structure in semi-arid regions is difficult due to the highly non-linearity relationship between rainfall and runoff. In this study, we describe the development of a modeling framework to evaluate future water availability that captures elements of the coupled response of the biophysical system to climate change and human systems. The framework is built under the Envision multi-agent simulation tool, characterizing the spatial patterns of water demand in the semi-arid Treasure Valley area of Southwest Idaho - a rapidly developing socio-ecological system where urban growth is displacing agricultural production. The semi-conceptual HBV model, a population growth and allocation model (Target), a vegetation state and transition model (SSTM), and a statistically based fire disturbance model (SpatialAllocator) are integrated to simulate hydrology, population and land use. Six alternative scenarios are composed by combining two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with three population growth and allocation scenarios (Status Quo, Managed Growth, and Unconstrained Growth). Five-year calibration and validation performances are assessed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Irrigation activities are simulated using local water rights. Results show that in all scenarios, annual mean stream flow decreases as the projected rainfall increases because the projected warmer climate also enhances water losses to evapotranspiration. Seasonal maximum stream flow tends to occur earlier than in current conditions due to the earlier peak of snow melting. The aridity index and water deficit generally increase in the irrigated area. The most sensitive area is along the Boise Foothill which is the transitioning zone from water deficit to water abundant. However, these trends vary significantly between scenarios in space and time. The outcome of the study will serve as a reference for local stakeholders to make decisions on future land use.

Future water availability in North African dams simulated by high-resolution regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tramblay, Yves; Jarlan, Lionel; Hanich, Lahoucine; Somot, Samuel

2016-04-01

In North Africa, the countries of Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia are already experiencing water scarcity and a strong interannual variability of precipitation. To better manage their existing water resources, several dams and reservoirs have been built on most large river catchments. The objective of this study is to provide quantitative scenarios of future changes in water availability for the 47 major dams and reservoirs catchments located in North Africa. An ensemble of regional climate models (RCM) with a spatial resolution of 12km, driven by different general circulation models (GCM), from the EuroCORDEX experiment have been considered to analyze the projected changes on temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) for two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and two time horizons (2040-2065 and 2065-2090). PET is estimated from RCM outputs either with the FAO-Penman-Monteith (PM) equation, requiring air temperature, relative humidity, net radiation and wind, or with the Hargreave Samani (HS) equation, requiring only air temperature. The water balance is analyzed by comparing the climatic demand and supply of water, considering that for most of these catchments groundwater storage is negligible over long time periods. Results indicated a future temperature increase for all catchments between +1.8° and +4.2°, depending on the emission scenario and the time period considered. Precipitation is projected to decrease between -14% to -27%, mainly in winter and spring, with a strong East to West gradient. PET computed from PM or HS formulas provided very similar estimates and projections, ranging between +7% to +18%. Changes in PET are mostly driven by rising temperatures and are greatest during dry summer months than for the wet winter season. Therefore the increased PET has a lower impact than declining precipitation on future water availability, which is expected to decrease by -19% to -33% on average.

Climate change-induced vegetation shifts lead to more ecological droughts despite projected rainfall increases in many global temperate drylands.

PubMed

Tietjen, Britta; Schlaepfer, Daniel R; Bradford, John B; Lauenroth, William K; Hall, Sonia A; Duniway, Michael C; Hochstrasser, Tamara; Jia, Gensuo; Munson, Seth M; Pyke, David A; Wilson, Scott D

2017-07-01

Drylands occur worldwide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change because dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability and change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding. We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change-induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation. Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change-induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, that is, leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water-limited ecosystems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change-induced vegetation shifts lead to more ecological droughts despite projected rainfall increases in many global temperate drylands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tietjen, Britta; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Laurenroth, William K.; Hall, Sonia A.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hochstrasser, Tamara; Jia, Gensuo; Munson, Seth M.; Pyke, David A.; Wilson, Scott D.

2017-01-01

Drylands occur world-wide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change since dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability, and also change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding.We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change-induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation.Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, i.e. leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water-limited ecosystems.

Climate Change Impacts on the Upper Indus Hydrology: Sources, Shifts and Extremes

PubMed Central

Immerzeel, W. W.; Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A.; Shrestha, A. B.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2016-01-01

The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin’s water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members. PMID:27828994

Climate Change Impacts on the Upper Indus Hydrology: Sources, Shifts and Extremes.

PubMed

Lutz, A F; Immerzeel, W W; Kraaijenbrink, P D A; Shrestha, A B; Bierkens, M F P

2016-01-01

The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin's water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members.

Conceptual model of water resources in the Kabul Basin, Afghanistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mack, Thomas J.; Akbari, M. Amin; Ashoor, M. Hanif; Chornack, Michael P.; Coplen, Tyler B.; Emerson, Douglas G.; Hubbard, Bernard E.; Litke, David W.; Michel, Robert L.; Plummer, Niel; Rezai, M. Taher; Senay, Gabriel B.; Verdin, James P.; Verstraeten, Ingrid M.

2010-01-01

The United States (U.S.) Geological Survey has been working with the Afghanistan Geological Survey and the Afghanistan Ministry of Energy and Water on water-resources investigations in the Kabul Basin under an agreement supported by the United States Agency for International Development. This collaborative investigation compiled, to the extent possible in a war-stricken country, a varied hydrogeologic data set and developed limited data-collection networks to assist with the management of water resources in the Kabul Basin. This report presents the results of a multidisciplinary water-resources assessment conducted between 2005 and 2007 to address questions of future water availability for a growing population and of the potential effects of climate change. Most hydrologic and climatic data-collection activities in Afghanistan were interrupted in the early 1980s as a consequence of war and civil strife and did not resume until 2003 or later. Because of the gap of more than 20 years in the record of hydrologic and climatic observations, this investigation has made considerable use of remotely sensed data and, where available, historical records to investigate the water resources of the Kabul Basin. Specifically, this investigation integrated recently acquired remotely sensed data and satellite imagery, including glacier and climatic data; recent climate-change analyses; recent geologic investigations; analysis of streamflow data; groundwater-level analysis; surface-water- and groundwater-quality data, including data on chemical and isotopic environmental tracers; and estimates of public-supply and agricultural water uses. The data and analyses were integrated by using a simplified groundwater-flow model to test the conceptual model of the hydrologic system and to assess current (2007) and future (2057) water availability. Recharge in the basin is spatially and temporally variable and generally occurs near streams and irrigated areas in the late winter and early spring. In irrigated areas near uplands or major rivers, the annual recharge rate may be about 1.2 ? 10-3 meters per year; however, in areas at lower altitude with little irrigation, the recharge rate may average about 0.7 ? 10-3 meters per year. With increasing population, the water needs of the Kabul Basin are estimated to increase from 112,000 cubic meters per day to about 725,000 cubic meters per day by the year 2057. In some areas of the basin, particularly in the north along the western mountain front and near major rivers, water resources are generally adequate for current needs. In other areas of the basin, such as in the east and away from major rivers, the available water resources may not meet future needs. On the basis of the model simulations, increasing withdrawals are likely to result in declining water levels that may cause more than 50 percent of shallow (typically less than 50 meters deep) supply wells to become dry or inoperative. The water quality in the shallow (less than 100 meters thick), unconsolidated primary aquifer has deteriorated in urban areas because of poor sanitation. Concerns about water availability may be compounded by poor well-construction practices and lack of planning. Future water resources of the Kabul Basin will likely be reduced as a result of increasing air temperatures associated with global climate change. It is estimated that at least 60 percent of shallow groundwater-supply wells would be affected and may become dry or inoperative as a result of climate change. These effects of climate change would likely be greatest in the agricultural areas adjacent to the Paghman Mountains where a majority of springs, karezes, and wells would be affected. The water available in the shallow primary aquifer of the basin may meet future water needs in the northern areas of the Kabul Basin near the Panjsher River. Conceptual groundwater-flow simulations indicate that the basin likely has groundwater reserves in unused unconsolidate

Water Resource Assessment in KRS Reservoir Using Remote Sensing and GIS Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manubabu, V. H.; Gouda, K. C.; Bhat, N.; Reddy, A.

2014-12-01

In the recent time the fresh water resource becomes very important because of various reasons like population growth, pollution, over exploitation of the ground water resources etc. As there is no efficient and proper measures for recharging ground water exists and also the climatological impacts on water resources like global warming exacerbating water shortages, growing populations and rising demand for freshwater in agriculture, industry, and energy production. There is a need and challenging task for analyzing the future changes in regional water availability and it is also very much necessary to asses and predict the fresh water present in a lake or reservoir to make better decision making in the optimal usage of surface water. In the present study is intended to provide a practical discussion of methodology that deals with how to asses and predict amount of surface water available in the future using Remote Sensing(RS) data , Geographical Information System(GIS) techniques, and GCM (Global Circulation Model). Basically the study emphasized over one of the biggest reservoir i.e. the Krishna Raja Sagara (KRS) reservoir situated in the state of Karnataka in India. Multispectral satellite images like IRS LISS III and Landsat L8 from different open source web portals like NRSC-Bhuvan and NASA Earth Explorer respectively are used for the present analysis. The multispectral satellite images are used to identify the temporal changes of the water quantity in the reservoir for the period 2000 to 2014. Also the water volume are being calculated using Advances Space born Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global DEM over the reservoir basin. The hydro meteorological parameters are also studied using multi-source observed data and the empirical water budget models for the reservoir in terms of rainfall, temperature, run off, water inflow and outflow etc. are being developed and analyzed. Statistical analysis are also carried out to quantify the relation between reservoir water volume and the hydrological parameters (Figure 1). A general circulation model (GCM) is used for the prediction of major hydro meteorological parameters like rainfall and using the GCM predictions the water availability in terms of water volume in future are simulated using the empirical water budget model.

Assessing Portuguese Guadiana Basin water management impacts under climate change and paleoclimate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maia, Rodrigo; Oliveira, Bruno; Ramos, Vanessa; Brekke, Levi

2014-05-01

The water balance in each reservoir and the subsequent, related, water resource management decisions are, presently, highly information dependent and are therefore often limited to a reactive response (even if aimed towards preventing future issues regarding the water system). Taking advantage of the availability of scenarios for climate projections, it is now possible to estimate the likely future evolution of climate which represents an important stepping stone towards proactive, adaptative, water resource management. The purpose of the present study was to assess the potential effects of climate change in terms of temperature, precipitation, runoff and water availability/scarcity for application in water resource management decisions. The analysis here presented was applied to the Portuguese portion of the Guadiana River Basin, using a combination of observed climate and runoff data and the results of the Global Climate Models. The Guadiana River Basin was represented by its reservoirs on the Portuguese portion of the basin and, for the future period, an estimated value of the inflows originating in the Spanish part of the Basin. The change in climate was determined in terms of relative and absolute variations of climate (precipitation and temperature) and hydrology (runoff and water balance related information). Apart from the previously referred data, an hydrological model and a water management model were applied so as to obtain an extended range of data regarding runoff generation (calibrated to observed data) and water balance in the reservoirs (considering the climate change impacts in the inflows, outflows and water consumption). The water management model was defined in order to represent the reservoirs interaction including upstream to downstream discharges and water transfers. Under the present climate change context, decision-makers and stakeholders are ever more vulnerable to the uncertainties of climate. Projected climate in the Guadiana basin indicates an increase in temperatures and a reduction of the precipitation values which go well beyond the observed values and, therefore, must be forcefully included in any realistic proactive water resource management decision. Using the results of this study it is possible to estimate future water availability and consumption satisfaction allowing for the elaboration of informed management decisions. In this study, the CMIP 3 Global Climate Models were considered for the definition of the effects of climate change, using the median and extreme tendencies based on the range of variation of the multiple climate projection scenarios. The observed climate variability, along with these model-derived tendencies, were used to inform the hydrology and water management models for the historical and future periods, respectively. Additionally, for a more comprehensive analysis on climate variability, a stochastic model was implemented based on the paleoclimate variability obtained from tree-ring records.

76 FR 33361 - Notice of Availability of the Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Madera Irrigation...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-08

... Impact Statement for the Madera Irrigation District Water Supply Enhancement Project located in Madera... Madera Irrigation District Water Supply Enhancement Project (MID WSEP). Reclamation proposes to approve... supply reliability and flexibility for current and future water demand, and reduce local overdraft, MID...

Role of production intensification on water use efficiency in catfish pond aquaculture

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Availability of fresh water is sometimes considered to be a limiting factor for future aquaculture development. This is certainly true at specific local levels where aquaculture may conflict with other water uses. A good example is the Yazoo-Mississippi River floodplain in northwest Mississippi, whe...

A review of water use in the U.S. electric power sector: insights from systems-level perspectives

EPA Science Inventory

Thermoelectric power production comprised 41% of total freshwater withdrawals in the U.S., surpassing even agriculture. This review highlights scenarios of the electric sector’s future demands for water, including scenarios that limit both CO2 and water availability. A number o...

A modeling framework for evaluating the drought resilience of a surface water supply system under non-stationarity

DOE PAGES

Zhao, Gang; Gao, Huilin; Kao, Shih -Chieh; ...

2018-05-23

Here, the future resilience of water supply systems is unprecedentedly challenged by non-stationary processes, such as fast population growth and a changing climate. A thorough understanding of how these non-stationarities impact water supply resilience is vital to support sustainable decision making, particularly for large cities in arid and/or semi-arid regions. In this study, a novel modeling framework, which integrates hydrological processes and water management, was established over a representative water limited metropolitan area to evaluate the impacts of water availability and water demand on reservoir storage and water supply reliability. In this framework, climate change induced drought events were selectedmore » from statistically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 outputs under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, while future water demand was estimated by the product of projected future population and per capita water use. Compared with the first half of the 21st century (2000–2049), reservoir storage and water supply reliability during the second half century (2050–2099) are projected to reduce by 16.1% and 14.2%, respectively. While both future multi-year droughts and population growth will lower water supply resilience, the uncertainty associated with future climate projection is larger than that associated with urbanization. To reduce the drought risks, a combination of mitigation strategies (e.g., additional conservation, integrating new water sources, and water use redistribution) was found to be the most efficient approach and can significantly improve water supply reliability by as much as 15.9%.« less

A modeling framework for evaluating the drought resilience of a surface water supply system under non-stationarity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Gang; Gao, Huilin; Kao, Shih -Chieh

Here, the future resilience of water supply systems is unprecedentedly challenged by non-stationary processes, such as fast population growth and a changing climate. A thorough understanding of how these non-stationarities impact water supply resilience is vital to support sustainable decision making, particularly for large cities in arid and/or semi-arid regions. In this study, a novel modeling framework, which integrates hydrological processes and water management, was established over a representative water limited metropolitan area to evaluate the impacts of water availability and water demand on reservoir storage and water supply reliability. In this framework, climate change induced drought events were selectedmore » from statistically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 outputs under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, while future water demand was estimated by the product of projected future population and per capita water use. Compared with the first half of the 21st century (2000–2049), reservoir storage and water supply reliability during the second half century (2050–2099) are projected to reduce by 16.1% and 14.2%, respectively. While both future multi-year droughts and population growth will lower water supply resilience, the uncertainty associated with future climate projection is larger than that associated with urbanization. To reduce the drought risks, a combination of mitigation strategies (e.g., additional conservation, integrating new water sources, and water use redistribution) was found to be the most efficient approach and can significantly improve water supply reliability by as much as 15.9%.« less

Climatic water deficit, tree species ranges, and climate change in Yosemite National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lutz, James A.; Van Wagtendonk, Jan W.; Franklin, Jerry F.

2010-01-01

Aim  (1) To calculate annual potential evapotranspiration (PET), actual evapotranspiration (AET) and climatic water deficit (Deficit) with high spatial resolution; (2) to describe distributions for 17 tree species over a 2300-m elevation gradient in a 3000-km2 landscape relative to AET and Deficit; (3) to examine changes in AET and Deficit between past (c. 1700), present (1971–2000) and future (2020–49) climatological means derived from proxies, observations and projections; and (4) to infer how the magnitude of changing Deficit may contribute to changes in forest structure and composition.Location  Yosemite National Park, California, USA.Methods  We calculated the water balance within Yosemite National Park using a modified Thornthwaite-type method and correlated AET and Deficit with tree species distribution. We used input data sets with different spatial resolutions parameterized for variation in latitude, precipitation, temperature, soil water-holding capacity, slope and aspect. We used climate proxies and climate projections to model AET and Deficit for past and future climate. We compared the modelled future water balance in Yosemite with current species water-balance ranges in North America.Results  We calculated species climatic envelopes over broad ranges of environmental gradients – a range of 310 mm for soil water-holding capacity, 48.3°C for mean monthly temperature (January minima to July maxima), and 918 mm yr−1 for annual precipitation. Tree species means were differentiated by AET and Deficit, and at higher levels of Deficit, species means were increasingly differentiated. Modelled Deficit for all species increased by a mean of 5% between past (c. 1700) and present (1971–2000). Projected increases in Deficit between present and future (2020–49) were 23% across all plots.Main conclusions  Modelled changes in Deficit between past, present and future climate scenarios suggest that recent past changes in forest structure and composition may accelerate in the future, with species responding individualistically to further declines in water availability. Declining water availability may disproportionately affect Pinus monticola and Tsuga mertensiana. Fine-scale heterogeneity in soil water-holding capacity, aspect and slope implies that plant water balance may vary considerably within the grid cells of kilometre-scale climate models. Sub-grid-cell soil and topographical data can partially compensate for the lack of spatial heterogeneity in gridded climate data, potentially improving vegetation-change projections in mountainous landscapes with heterogeneous topography.

Potential effects of climate change on the growth of fishes from different thermal guilds in Lakes Michigan and Huron

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kao, Yu-Chun; Madenjian, Charles P.; Bunnell, David B.; Lofgren, Brent M.; Perroud, Marjorie

2015-01-01

We used a bioenergetics modeling approach to investigate potential effects of climate change on the growth of two economically important native fishes: yellow perch (Perca flavescens), a cool-water fish, and lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis), a cold-water fish, in deep and oligotrophic Lakes Michigan and Huron. For assessing potential changes in fish growth, we contrasted simulated fish growth in the projected future climate regime during the period 2043-2070 under different prey availability scenarios with the simulated growth during the baseline (historical reference) period 1964-1993. Results showed that effects of climate change on the growth of these two fishes are jointly controlled by behavioral thermoregulation and prey availability. With the ability of behavioral thermoregulation, temperatures experienced by yellow perch in the projected future climate regime increased more than those experienced by lake whitefish. Thus simulated future growth decreased more for yellow perch than for lake whitefish under scenarios where prey availability remains constant into the future. Under high prey availability scenarios, simulated future growth of these two fishes both increased but yellow perch could not maintain the baseline efficiency of converting prey consumption into body weight. We contended that thermal guild should not be the only factor used to predict effects of climate change on the growth of a fish, and that ecosystem responses to climate change should be also taken into account.

Waters Without Borders: Scarcity and the Future of State Interactions over Shared Water Resources

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

urbanization, increasing per capita consumption (associated with globalization and economic development), pollution , and climate change will exacerbate...Standards of Living, and Pollution : Water is fundamental to ensuring an adequate food supply. Agricultural irrigation accounts for 70% of fresh water...Agricultural run-off is also a major source of pollution reducing the quality and availability of drinking water. Energy: Water is also needed for the

Developing America's Shale Reserves - Water Strategies For A Sustainable Future (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shephard, L. E.; Oshikanlu, T.

2013-12-01

The development of shale oil and gas reserves over the last several years has had a significant impact on securing America's energy future while making substantial contributions to our nation's economic prosperity. These developments have also raised serious concerns about potential detrimental impacts to our environment (i.e., land, air and water) with much media attention focused on the impacts to our nation's fresh water supply. These concerns are being discussed across the nation often with little or no distinction that the nature of the water issues vary depending on local circumstances (e.g., depth of aquifer and reservoir zone, water demand and availability, availability of discharge wells, regulatory framework, etc.) and regional shale reservoir development strategies (depth of wells, length of laterals, fluid-type used for fracturing, etc.). Growing concerns over long standing drought conditions in some areas and competing demands for water from other sectors (e.g., agriculture, domestic, etc.) add even greater uncertainty relative to fresh water. Water demands for gas and oil wells vary from region to region but nominally range from 10 to 15 acre feet of water (4 to 6 million gallons) for drilling and hydraulic fracturing applications. Flowback water from the hydraulic fracturing process varies and can range from 5 to 40 % of the water used for drilling and 'fracing'. Produced water can be substantial, leading to significant volumes of 'disposed water' where injection wells are available. A science-based systems approach to water lifecycle management that incorporates leading-edge technology development and considers economic and social impacts is critical for the long-term sustainable development of shale reserves. Various water recycling and reuse technologies are being deployed within select regions across the nation with each having limited success depending on region. The efficacy of reuse technology will vary based on produced water quantity and quality, flow back rates and the associated economics. A significant contributor to the economics can be offsite transportation costs from hauling water to and from the drill site. While economics often drive decisions on technology and reuse, available water and infrastructure (water pipelines, injection wells, etc.) are also important contributors. In some regions effluent water (i.e., treated or untreated waste water) is playing an increasing role to reduce impacting 'fresh' water supplies for communities in regions where supply is limited and demand continues to increase. In many communities effluent water provides additional revenue to support infrastructure needs arising from accelerated population growth and economic expansion. The development strategy for shale reservoirs can be optimized to assure a sustainable future for water resources. A systems-based sustainable water strategy should be integrated into the regional reservoir development approach at the earliest possible stage with full consideration of the nature of regional water issues and reservoir development strategies impacting water demand and supply, available technology and potential social and economic impacts.

Global Water Resources Under Future Changes: Toward an Improved Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Islam, M.; Agata, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2005-05-01

Global water resources availability in the 21st century is going to be an important concern. Despite its international recognition, however, until now there are very limited global estimates of water resources, which considered the geographical linkage between water supply and demand, defined by runoff and its passage through river network. The available studies are again insufficient due to reasons like different approaches in defining water scarcity, simply based on annual average figures without considering the inter-annual or seasonal variability, absence of the inclusion of virtual water trading, etc. In this study, global water resources under future climate change associated with several socio-economic factors were estimated varying over both temporal and spatial scale. Global runoff data was derived from several land surface models under the GSWP2 (Global Soil Wetness Project) project, which was further processed through TRIP (Total Runoff Integrated Pathways) river routing model to produce a 0.5x0.5 degree grid based figure. Water abstraction was estimated for the same spatial resolution for three sectors as domestic, industrial and agriculture. GCM outputs from CCSR and MRI were collected to predict the runoff changes. Socio-economic factors like population and GDP growth, affected mostly the demand part. Instead of simply looking at annual figures, monthly figures for both supply and demand was considered. For an average year, such a seasonal variability can affect the crop yield significantly. In other case, inter-annual variability of runoff can cause for an absolute drought condition. To account for vulnerabilities of a region to future changes, both inter-annual and seasonal effects were thus considered. At present, the study assumed the future agricultural water uses to be unchanged under climatic changes. In this connection, EPIC model is underway to use for estimating future agricultural water demand under climatic changes on a monthly basis. From the estimation of present stress level (withdrawal to resource ratio), the months between January to May was found to have the highest number of population above water stress level, while the months between June to August having lower population in stress. The regions suffering from high seasonal variability are those of Asian monsoon zone, south-central Africa and central-east part of South America. Inter-annual variability, on the other hand, is dominant mostly along the Middle-east or Sahara regions and the western part of South America and Latin America. Virtual water trading among countries was estimated on per capita basis. It shows that many Middle east countries are able to compensate their water stress significantly through virtual water trading. The overall effect of climate change on lowering of river runoff mostly affected Europe, southern part of China and Latin America. India or Central Africa have better runoff availability under changing climate, but still subject to a higher water stress because of socio-economic factors like high population growth and expected increase in rate of water uses. Decrease in population as well as saturation level of maximum water uses along most European countries, on the contrary, relaxed the pressure of lowering river runoff, causing no significant change in future stress.

Assessing hydrological drought risk for the irrigation sector in future climate scenarios: lessons learned from the Apulia case study (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Critto, Andrea; Torresan, Silvia; Ronco, Paolo; Zennaro, Federica; Santini, Monia; Trabucco, Antonio; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-04-01

Climate change is already affecting the frequency of drought events which may threaten the current stocks of water resources and thus the availability of freshwater for the irrigation. The achievement of a sustainable equilibrium between the availability of water resources and the irrigation demand is essentially related to the planning and implementation of evidence-based adaptation strategies and actions. In this sense, the improvement (of existing) and the development of (new) appropriate risk assessment methods and tools to evaluate the impact of drought events on irrigated crops is fundamental in order to assure that the agricultural yields are appropriate to meet the current and future food and market demand. This study evaluates the risk of hydrological drought on the irrigated agronomic compartment of Apulia, a semi-arid region in Southern Italy. We applied a stepwise Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) procedure, based on the consecutive analysis of hazards, exposure, vulnerability and risks, integrating the qualitative and quantitative available information. Future climate projections for the timeframes 2021-2050 and 2041-2070 were provided by COSMO-CLM under the radiative forcing RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The run-off feeding the water stocks of the most important irrigation reservoirs in Apulia was then modeled with Arc-SWAT. Hence, the hazard analysis was carried out in order to estimate the degree of fulfillment of actual irrigation demand satisfied by water supply of different reservoirs in future scenarios. Vulnerability of exposed irrigated crops was evaluated depending on three factors accounting for crop yield variation vs water stress, water losses along the irrigation network, diversification of water supply. Resulting risk and vulnerability maps allowed: the identification of Reclamation Consortia at higher risk of not fulfilling their future irrigation demand (e.g. Capitanata Reclamation Consortia in RCP8.5 2041-2070 scenario); the ranking of most affected crops (e.g. fruit trees and vineyards); and finally, the characterization of vulnerability pattern of irrigation systems. Major achievements included the definition of a portfolio of science-driven adaptation strategies to reduce the risk pattern at both agronomic level (preferring crops with low vulnerability score, as olive groves) and at structural level (differentiating the water stocks and supplies and reducing losses and inefficiencies).

Sensitivities and Tipping Points of Power System Operations to Fluctuations Caused by Water Availability and Fuel Prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Connell, M.; Macknick, J.; Voisin, N.; Fu, T.

2017-12-01

The western US electric grid is highly dependent upon water resources for reliable operation. Hydropower and water-cooled thermoelectric technologies represent 67% of generating capacity in the western region of the US. While water resources provide a significant amount of generation and reliability for the grid, these same resources can represent vulnerabilities during times of drought or low flow conditions. A lack of water affects water-dependent technologies and can result in more expensive generators needing to run in order to meet electric grid demand, resulting in higher electricity prices and a higher cost to operate the grid. A companion study assesses the impact of changes in water availability and air temperatures on power operations by directly derating hydro and thermo-electric generators. In this study we assess the sensitivities and tipping points of water availability compared with higher fuel prices in electricity sector operations. We evaluate the impacts of varying electricity prices by modifying fuel prices for coal and natural gas. We then analyze the difference in simulation results between changes in fuel prices in combination with water availability and air temperature variability. We simulate three fuel price scenarios for a 2010 baseline scenario along with 100 historical and future hydro-climate conditions. We use the PLEXOS electricity production cost model to optimize power system dispatch and cost decisions under each combination of fuel price and water constraint. Some of the metrics evaluated are total production cost, generation type mix, emissions, transmission congestion, and reserve procurement. These metrics give insight to how strained the system is, how much flexibility it still has, and to what extent water resource availability or fuel prices drive changes in the electricity sector operations. This work will provide insights into current electricity operations as well as future cases of increased penetration of variable renewable generation technologies such as wind and solar.

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Demands and Crop Yields in California's Central Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tansey, M. K.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Young, C. A.; Huntington, J. L.

2012-12-01

Long term planning for the management of California's water resources requires assessment of the effects of future climate changes on both water supply and demand. Considerable progress has been made on the evaluation of the effects of future climate changes on water supplies but less information is available with regard to water demands. Uncertainty in future climate projections increases the difficulty of assessing climate impacts and evaluating long range adaptation strategies. Compounding the uncertainty in the future climate projections is the fact that most readily available downscaled climate projections lack sufficient meteorological information to compute evapotranspiration (ET) by the widely accepted ASCE Penman-Monteith (PM) method. This study addresses potential changes in future Central Valley water demands and crop yields by examining the effects of climate change on soil evaporation, plant transpiration, growth and yield for major types of crops grown in the Central Valley of California. Five representative climate scenarios based on 112 bias corrected spatially downscaled CMIP 3 GCM climate simulations were developed using the hybrid delta ensemble method to span a wide range future climate uncertainty. Analysis of historical California Irrigation Management Information System meteorological data was combined with several meteorological estimation methods to compute future solar radiation, wind speed and dew point temperatures corresponding to the GCM projected temperatures and precipitation. Future atmospheric CO2 concentrations corresponding to the 5 representative climate projections were developed based on weighting IPCC SRES emissions scenarios. The Land, Atmosphere, and Water Simulator (LAWS) model was used to compute ET and yield changes in the early, middle and late 21st century for 24 representative agricultural crops grown in the Sacramento, San Joaquin and Tulare Lake basins. Study results indicate that changes in ET and yield vary between crops due to plant specific sensitivities to temperature, solar radiation and the vapor pressure deficits. Shifts in the growth period to earlier in the year, shortened growth period for annual crops as well as extended fall growth can also exert important influences. Projected increases in CO2 concentrations in the late 21st century exert very significant influences on ET and yield for many crops. To characterize potential impacts and the range of uncertainty, changes in total agricultural water demands and yields were computed assuming that current crop types and acreages in 21 Central Valley regional planning areas remained constant throughout the 21st century for each of the 5 representative future climate scenarios.

Sensitivity of future U.S. water shortages to socioeconomic and climate drivers: A case study in Georgia using an integrated human-earth system modeling framework

DOE PAGES

Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; ...

2016-02-06

Here, one of the most important interactions between humans and climate is in the demand and supply of water. Humans withdraw, use, and consume water and return waste water to the environment for a variety of socioeconomic purposes, including domestic, commercial, and industrial use, production of energy resources and cooling thermal-electric power plants, and growing food, fiber, and chemical feed stocks for human consumption. Uncertainties in the future human demand for water interact with future impacts of climatic change on water supplies to impinge on water management decisions at the international, national, regional, and local level, but until recently toolsmore » were not available to assess the uncertainties surrounding these decisions. This paper demonstrates the use of a multi-model framework in a structured sensitivity analysis to project and quantify the sensitivity of future deficits in surface water in the context of climate and socioeconomic change for all U.S. states and sub-basins. The framework treats all sources of water demand and supply consistently from the world to local level. The paper illustrates the capabilities of the framework with sample results for a river sub-basin in the U.S. state of Georgia.« less

Availability of Water in the Kabul Basin, Afghanistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mack, Thomas J.; Chornack, Michael P.; Coplen, T.B.; Plummer, Niel; Rezai, M.T.; Verstraeten, Ingrid M.

2010-01-01

The availability of water resources is vital to the social and economic well being and rebuilding of Afghanistan. Kabul City currently (2010) has a population of nearly 4 million and is growing rapidly as a result of periods of relative security and the return of refugees. Population growth and recent droughts have placed new stresses on the city's limited water resources and have caused many wells to become contaminated, dry, or inoperable in recent years. The projected vulnerability of Central and West Asia to climate change (Cruz and others, 2007; Milly and others, 2005) and observations of diminishing glaciers in Afghanistan (Molnia, 2009) have heightened concerns for future water availability in the Kabul Basin of Afghanistan.

7 CFR 14.6 - Criteria for determining the pri- mary purpose of payments with respect to potential exclusion...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... conservation includes actions that, for a given level of water supply, reduce the demand for or use of water by... reuse of water, thereby making existing supplies available for other current or future uses; or (iv) Improving land management practices for the purpose of reducing water use, loss, waste, increasing the...

Higher Resolution for Water Resources Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumenil-Gates, L.

2009-12-01

The Earth system science community is providing an increasing range of science results for the benefit of achieving the Millennium Development Goals. In addressing questions such as reducing poverty and hunger, achieving sustainable global development, or by defining adaptation strategies for climate change, one of the key issues will be the quantitative description and understanding of the global water cycle, which will allow useful projections of available future water resources for several decades ahead. The quantities of global water cycle elements that we observe today - and deal with in hydrologic and atmospheric modeling - are already very different from the natural flows as human influence on the water cycle by storage, consumption and edifice has been going on for millennia, and climate change is expected to add more uncertainty. In this case Tony Blair’s comment that perhaps the most worrying problem is climate change does not cover the full story. We shall also have to quantify how the human demand for water resources and alterations of the various elements of the water cycle may proceed in the future: will there be enough of the precious water resource to sustain current and future demands by the various sectors involved? The topics that stakeholders and decision makers concerned with managing water resources are interested in cover a variety of human uses such as agriculture, energy production, ecological flow requirements to sustain biodiversity and ecosystem services, or human cultural aspects, recreation and human well-being - all typically most relevant at the regional or local scales, this being quite different from the relatively large-scale that the IPCC assessment addresses. Halfway through the Millennium process, the knowledge base of the global water cycle is still limited. The sustainability of regional water resources is best assessed through a research program that combines high-resolution climate and hydrologic models for expected future scenarios (as in the IPCC ensembles) with appropriate observational data under current conditions in order to benchmark the models’ accuracy. Expected future changes in water availability could then be characterized and appropriate adaptation action designed in co-operation with the water use community. In situ observations of water cycle variables can also be used and developed together with remote sensing data from space to provide initial data for global seasonal or decadal forecasting and monitoring of global change in less well observed regions of the world.

Energy Requirements by the Water Sector in the Southwestern US: Past, Present, and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Averyt, K.; Yates, D. N.; Meldrum, J.

2014-12-01

Climate, energy, and water are fundamentally linked such that shifts in one sector have cascading impacts on the others. Consideration of the integrated system is necessary to fully understand the individual risk profile of each sector. In defining vulnerabilities and potential adaptations, the policy and regulatory environment must be considered alongside the biological and physical systems. Take, for example, the Southwestern U.S., a naturally arid system, where water availability is declining as a consequence of climate change and population growth. Adaptations by the water sector to convey, store, and develop new water sources (e.g. desalination, groundwater pumping, water-reuse) are strategies designed to enhance sustainability of the sector. But, the energy requirements embedded in these management techniques pose challenges to electric utilities. West wide, approximately 20% of total electricity generation goes toward supplying and heating water. If future investments made by the water sector to deal with changing supply and demand regimes continue to follow current trends, the dependence of water on energy availability will grow, meaning that the water supply will be increasingly reliant on the electricity system. Here, we use the example of long-term aridity and the recent drought in the Western US to illustrate the tradeoffs and challenges inherent at the nexus between energy and water. We present long-term trends in the energy intensity of water supplies in the Southwestern US, with a specific focus on groundwater systems. Projected energy requirements for proposed and future conveyance systems are discussed. The potential impacts of reduced flows on the Colorado River on the energy demands for groundwater pumping in the Lower Colorado River Basin are highlighted.

Water availability at hospitals in low- and middle-income countries: implications for improving access to safe surgical care.

PubMed

Chawla, Sagar S; Gupta, Shailvi; Onchiri, Frankline M; Habermann, Elizabeth B; Kushner, Adam L; Stewart, Barclay T

2016-09-01

Although two billion people now have access to clean water, many hospitals in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) do not. Lack of water availability at hospitals hinders safe surgical care. We aimed to review the surgical capacity literature and document the availability of water at health facilities and develop a predictive model of water availability at health facilities globally to inform targeted capacity improvements. Using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines, a systematic search for surgical capacity assessments in LMICs in MEDLINE, PubMed, and World Health Organization Global Health Library was performed. Data regarding water availability were extracted. Data from these assessments and national indicator data from the World Bank (e.g., gross domestic product, total health expenditure, and percent of population with improved access to water) were used to create a predictive model for water availability in LMICs globally. Of the 72 records identified, 19 reported water availability representing 430 hospitals. A total of 66% of hospitals assessed had water availability (283 of 430 hospitals). Using these data, estimated percent of water availability in LMICs more broadly ranged from under 20% (Liberia) to over 90% (Bangladesh, Ghana). Less than two-thirds of hospitals providing surgical care in 19 LMICs had a reliable water source. Governments and nongovernmental organizations should increase efforts to improve water infrastructure at hospitals, which might aid in the provision of safe essential surgical care. Future research is needed to measure the effect of water availability on surgical care and patient outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Objective Assessment of Groundwater Resources for the Isle of Wight, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, M.; Butler, A. P.; McIntyre, N.

2012-12-01

Water resources are of crucial importance to the UK, and are essential to agriculture and industry as well as for domestic usage. A combination of factors - population growth, climate change and increasing regulatory restriction - will alter water availability over the next fifty years, potentially leading to shortages. Groundwater systems, representing 60% of available water in the southern UK, are typically conceptualised through geological interpretation, resulting in skilful and widely used systems models. Where these models are not successful, alternative approaches to groundwater resource assessments are required. A process for objectively modelling groundwater systems from borehole level observation data is presented, along with a methodology for incorporating climate change and population growth forecasts into an assessment of future water availability. The objective assessment described is a three stage process. Firstly, the observation data can be associated into groups, in order to best represent the water table response and thus identify units with consistent storage coefficient and transport process, analogous to varying aquifer media. Here this is achieved through the use of cluster analysis, applying various distance metrics to observation variances and incorporating spatial displacement. Secondly, the resulting groups are used to generate interpolated surfaces of mean water table level. A series of interpolative methods, including stochastic approaches, are applied and cross-validated to generate the most credible groundwater surface. Thirdly, the presence and influence of spatial and temporal anomalies such as groundwater abstraction points are identified through examination of observations furthest from the final interpolated groundwater surface. This groundwater systems model can then be incorporated into a groundwater/surface model relating rainfall to water table level and river flow, which in turn is used in conjunction with state-of-the-art climate projections and population change forecasts to generate projections of change for future scenarios. A case study illustrating the use of this methodology is presented. The Isle of Wight, a small island off the south coast of England with a population of 140,000, is exceptionally water stressed by UK standards and currently dependent on mainland transfers. These transfers are under review due to environmental pressure on the neighbouring county of Hampshire. Alongside this, a high population growth rate and the southerly location make the Isle of Wight the most likely part of the UK to be affected by reduced water availability. Lower Greensands and Chalk aquifer systems provide most of the island's non-imported water, yet these remain poorly understood. The principle reason for this is the exceptionally complex geology, a result of the island's location at the convergence of two asymmetric anticlinal structures and, in the case of the Lower Greensand group, multiple layers of alternating aquiferous and non-aquiferous material. A statistical assessment of borehole data may provide evidence for groundwater processes where direct lithological analysis is not appropriate. Through development of a credible groundwater systems model and sensible projections of future water availability, critical information can be provided to influence future water management policy.

Lunchtime School Water Availability and Water Consumption Among California Adolescents.

PubMed

Bogart, Laura M; Babey, Susan H; Patel, Anisha I; Wang, Pan; Schuster, Mark A

2016-01-01

To examine the potential impact of California SB 1413, which required school districts to provide free, fresh drinking water during mealtimes in food service areas by July 1, 2011, on greater water consumption among California adolescents. Data were drawn from the 2012 and 2013 state-representative California Health Interview Survey. A total of 2,665 adolescents aged 12-17 years were interviewed regarding their water consumption and availability of free water during lunchtime at their school. Three-fourths reported that their school provided free water at lunchtime, mainly via fountains. In a multivariate model that controlled for age, gender, income, race/ethnicity, body mass index, and school type, adolescents in schools that provided free water consumed significantly more water than adolescents who reported that water was not available, bivariate (standard error) = .67 (.28), p = .02. School water access did not significantly vary across the 2 years. Lunchtime school water availability was related to water consumption, but a quarter of adolescents reported that their school did not provide free water at lunch. Future research should explore what supports and inducements might facilitate provision of drinking water during school mealtimes. Copyright © 2016 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. All rights reserved.

Lunchtime School Water Availability and Water Consumption among California Adolescents

PubMed Central

Bogart, Laura M.; Babey, Susan H.; Patel, Anisha I.; Wang, Pan; Schuster, Mark A.

2015-01-01

Purpose To examine the potential impact of California SB1413, which required school districts to provide free, fresh drinking water during mealtimes in food service areas by July 1, 2011, on greater water consumption among California adolescents. Methods Data were drawn from the 2012 and 2013 state-representative California Health Interview Survey. A total of 2,665 adolescents aged 12-17 were interviewed regarding their water consumption and availability of free water during lunchtime at their school. Results Three-fourths reported that their school provided free water at lunchtime, mainly via fountains. In a multivariate model that controlled for age, gender, income, race/ethnicity, BMI, and school type, adolescents in schools that provided free water consumed significantly more water than adolescents who reported that water was not available, b (SE) = 0.67 (0.28), p = .02. School water access did not significantly vary across the two years. Conclusions Lunchtime school water availability was related to water consumption, but a quarter of adolescents reported that their school did not provide free water at lunch. Future research should explore what supports and inducements might facilitate provision of drinking water during school mealtimes. PMID:26552740

The future water environment--using scenarios to explore the significant water management challenges in England and Wales to 2050.

PubMed

Henriques, C; Garnett, K; Weatherhead, E K; Lickorish, F A; Forrow, D; Delgado, J

2015-04-15

Society gets numerous benefits from the water environment. It is crucial to ensure that water management practices deliver these benefits over the long-term in a sustainable and cost-effective way. Currently, hydromorphological alterations and nutrient enrichment pose the greatest challenges in European water bodies. The rapidly changing climatic and socio-economic boundary conditions pose further challenges to water management decisions and the achievement of policy goals. Scenarios are a strategic tool useful in conducting systematic investigations of future uncertainties pertaining to water management. In this study, the use of scenarios revealed water management challenges for England and Wales to 2050. A set of existing scenarios relevant to river basin management were elaborated through stakeholder workshops and interviews, relying on expert knowledge to identify drivers of change, their interdependencies, and influence on system dynamics. In a set of four plausible alternative futures, the causal chain from driving forces through pressures to states, impacts and responses (DPSIR framework) was explored. The findings suggest that scenarios driven by short-term economic growth and competitiveness undermine current environmental legislative requirements and exacerbate the negative impacts of climate change, producing a general deterioration of water quality and physical habitats, as well as reduced water availability with adverse implications for the environment, society and economy. Conversely, there are substantial environmental improvements under the scenarios characterised by long-term sustainability, though achieving currently desired environmental outcomes still poses challenges. The impacts vary across contrasting generic catchment types that exhibit distinct future water management challenges. The findings suggest the need to address hydromorphological alterations, nutrient enrichment and nitrates in drinking water, which are all likely to be exacerbated in the future. Future-proofing river basin management measures that deal with these challenges is crucial moving forward. The use of scenarios to future-proof strategy, policy and delivery mechanisms is discussed to inform next steps. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk to Water Security on Small Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holding, S. T.; Allen, D. M.

2013-12-01

The majority of fresh water available on small islands is shallow groundwater that forms a freshwater lens. Freshwater lenses are generally limited in extent and as such are vulnerable to many stressors that impact water security. These include stressors related to climate change, such as sea level rise, as well as those related to human impacts, such as contamination. Traditionally, water security assessments have focussed on indicators that provide a snapshot of the current condition. However, recent work suggests that in order to effectively manage the water system, it is also important to consider uncertain future impacts to the system by evaluating how different stressors might impact water security. In this study, a framework for assessing risk to water security was developed and tested on Andros Island in The Bahamas. The assessment comprises two main components that characterise the water system: numerical modelling studies and a hazard survey. A baseline numerical model of the freshwater lens throughout Andros Island was developed to simulate the morphology of the freshwater lens and estimate the freshwater resources currently available. The model was prepared using SEAWAT, a density-dependent flow and solute transport code. Various stressors were simulated in the model to evaluate the response of the freshwater lens to predicted future shifts in climate patterns, sea level rise, and changes in water use. A hazard survey was also conducted on the island to collect information related to the storage of contaminants, sanitation infrastructure, waste disposal practices and groundwater abstraction rates. The results of the survey form a geo-spatial database of the location and associated hazards to the freshwater lens. The resulting risk framework provides a ranking of overall risk to water security based on information from the numerical modelling and hazard survey. The risk framework is implemented in a Geographic Information System (GIS) and provides a map of the risk to water security throughout Andros Island. It evaluates risk to water security for current and future scenarios and will enable water resource managers to effectively adapt to future impacts on water security.

Quantifying Current and Future Groundwater Storage in Snowmelt Dominated High Elevation Meadows of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowry, C.; Ciruzzi, D. M.

2016-12-01

In a warming climate, snowmelt dominated mountain systems such as the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California have limited water storage potential. Receding glaciers and recent drought in the Sierra Nevada Mountains has resulted in reduced stream flow, restricting water availability for mountain vegetation. These geologic settings provide limited opportunities for groundwater storage due to a thin soil layer overlying expansive granitic bedrock. Yet high elevation meadows, which have formed in small depressions within the granitic bedrock, represent the only long-term storage reservoirs for water within the region. Through the use of field observations and numerical modeling this research investigates the role of meadow geometry, sediment properties, and topographic gradient to retain snowmelt derived groundwater recharge. These controlling factors affecting groundwater storage dynamics and surface-water outflows are evaluated under both current and dryer climatic conditions. Results show differential changes in seasonal storage of snowmelt and surface-water outflow under varying climate scenarios. The magnitude and timing of water storage and release is highly dependent on bedrock geometry and position within the watershed. Results show decrease of up to 20% in groundwater storage under dryer future climates resulting in a shift from long-term storage to steady release of water from these meadows. Testing of prior assumptions, such as uniform thickness, on meadow groundwater storage are shown to overestimate storage, resulting in higher volumes of water being released to streams earlier than observed in previous simulations. These results have implications for predicting water availability for downstream users as well as providing water for root water uptake of meadow vegetation under both current and future conditions.

Large-scale assessment of present day and future groundwater recharge and its sensitivity to climate variability in Europe's karst regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, A. J.; Gleeson, T. P.; Wagener, T.; Wada, Y.

2016-12-01

Karst aquifers in Europe are an important source of fresh water contributing up to half of the total drinking water supply in some countries. Karstic groundwater recharge is one of the most important components of the water balance of karst systems as it feeds the karst aquifers. Presently available large-scale hydrological models do not consider karst heterogeneity adequately. Projections of current and potential future groundwater recharge of Europe's karst aquifers are therefore unclear. In this study we compare simulations of present (1991-2010) and future (2080-2099) recharge using two different models to simulate groundwater recharge processes. One model includes karst processes (subsurface heterogeneity, lateral flow and concentrated recharge), while the other is based on the conceptual understanding of common hydrological systems (homogeneous subsurface, saturation excess overland flow). Both models are driven by the bias-corrected 5 GCMs of the ISI-MIP project (RCP8.5). To further assess sensitivity of groundwater recharge to climate variability, we calculate the elasticity of recharge rates to annual precipitation, temperature and average intensity of rainfall events, which is the median change of recharge that corresponds to the median change of these climate variables within the present and future time period, respectively. Our model comparison shows that karst regions over Europe have enhanced recharge rates with greater inter-annual variability compared to those with more homogenous subsurface properties. Furthermore, the heterogeneous representation shows stronger elasticity concerning climate variability than the homogeneous subsurface representation. This difference tends to increase towards the future. Our results suggest that water management in regions with heterogeneous subsurface can expect a higher water availability than estimated by most of the current large-scale simulations, while measures should be taken to prepare for increasingly variable groundwater recharge rates.

The evaluation of the climate change effects on maize and fennel cultivation by means of an hydrological physically based model: the case study of an irrigated district of southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfante, A.; Alfieri, M. S.; Basile, A.; De Lorenzi, F.; Fiorentino, N.; Menenti, M.

2012-04-01

The effect of climate change on irrigated agricultural systems will be different from area to area depending on some factors as: (i) water availability, (ii) crop water demand (iii) soil hydrological behavior and (iv) irrigation management strategy. The adaptation of irrigated crop systems to future climate change can be supported by physically based model which simulate the water and heat fluxes in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere system. The aim of this work is to evaluate the effects of climate change on the heat and water balance of a maize-fennel rotation. This was applied to a on-demand irrigation district of Southern Italy ("Destra Sele", Campania Region, 22.645 ha). Two climate scenarios were considered, current climate (1961-1990) and future climate (2021-2050), the latter constructed by applying statistical downscaling to GCMs scenarios. For each climate scenario the soil moisture regime of the selected study area was calculated by means of a simulation model of the soil-water-atmosphere system (SWAP). Synthetic indicators of the soil water regimes (e.g., crop water stress index - CWSI, available water content) have been calculated and impacts evaluated taking into account the yield response functions to water availability of different cultivars. Different irrigation delivering strategies were also simulated. The hydrological model SWAP was applied to the representative soils of the whole area (20 soil units) for which the soil hydraulic properties were derived by means of pedo-transfer function (HYPRES) tested and validated on the typical soils in the study area. Upper boundary conditions were derived from two climate scenarios, i.e. current and future. Unit gradient in soil water potential was set as lower boundary condition. Crop-specific input data and model parameters were derived from field experiments, in the same area, where the SWAP model was calibrated and validated. The results obtained have shown a significant increase of CWSI in the future climate scenario, and some spatial patterns strongly influenced by the soils characteristics. Adaptability of different maize cultivars has been evaluated. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008) Keywords: Plant Adaptative capacity, SWAP, Climate changes, Maize, Fennel

Incorporating agricultural management into an earth system model for the Pacific Northwest region: Interactions between climate, hydrology, agriculture, and economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Adam, J. C.; Stockle, C.; Nelson, R.; Brady, M.; Rajagopalan, K.; Barber, M. E.; Dinesh, S.; Malek, K.; Yorgey, G.; Kruger, C.; Marsh, T.; Yoder, J.

2011-12-01

For better management and decision making in the face of climate change, earth system models must explicitly account for natural resource and agricultural management activities. Including crop system, water management, and economic models into an earth system modeling framework can help in answering questions related to the impacts of climate change on irrigation water and crop productivity, how agricultural producers can adapt to anticipated climate change, and how agricultural practices can mitigate climate change. Herein we describe the coupling of the Variability Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model, which solves the water and energy balances of the hydrologic cycle at regional scales, with a crop-growth model, CropSyst. This new model, VIC-CropSyst, is the land surface model that will be used in a new regional-scale model development project focused on the Pacific Northwest, termed BioEarth. Here we describe the VIC-CropSyst coupling process and its application over the Columbia River basin (CRB) using agricultural-specific land cover information. The Washington State Department of Agriculture (WSDA) and U. S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cropland data layers were used to identify agricultural land use patterns, in which both irrigated and dry land crops were simulated. The VIC-CropSyst model was applied over the CRB for the historical period of 1976 - 2006 to establish a baseline for surface water availability, irrigation demand, and crop production. The model was then applied under future (2030s) climate change scenarios derived from statistically-downscaled Global Circulation Models output under two emission scenarios (A1B and B1). Differences between simulated future and historical irrigation demand, irrigation water availability, and crop production were used in an economics model to identify the most economically-viable future cropping pattern. The economics model was run under varying scenarios of regional growth, trade, water pricing, and water capacity providing a spectrum of possible future cropping patterns. The resulting cropping patterns were then used in VIC-CropSyst to quantify the impacts of climate change, economic, and water management scenarios on crop production, and water resources availability. This modeling framework provides opportunities to study the interactions between human activities and complex natural processes and is a valuable tool for inclusion in an earth system model with the goal of informing land use and water management.

Water management: Current and future challenges and research directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cosgrove, William J.; Loucks, Daniel P.

2015-06-01

Water distinguishes our planet compared to all the others we know about. While the global supply of available freshwater is more than adequate to meet all current and foreseeable water demands, its spatial and temporal distributions are not. There are many regions where our freshwater resources are inadequate to meet domestic, economic development and environmental needs. In such regions, the lack of adequate clean water to meet human drinking water and sanitation needs is indeed a constraint on human health and productivity and hence on economic development as well as on the maintenance of a clean environment and healthy ecosystems. All of us involved in research must find ways to remove these constraints. We face multiple challenges in doing that, especially given a changing and uncertain future climate, and a rapidly growing population that is driving increased social and economic development, globalization, and urbanization. How best to meet these challenges requires research in all aspects of water management. Since 1965, the journal Water Resources Research has played an important role in reporting and disseminating current research related to managing the quantity and quality and cost of this resource. This paper identifies the issues facing water managers today and future research needed to better inform those who strive to create a more sustainable and desirable future.

Water Accounting Plus for sustainable water management in the Volta river basin, West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dembélé, Moctar; Schaefli, Bettina; Mariéthoz, Grégroire; Ceperley, Natalie; Zwart, Sander J.

2017-04-01

Water Accounting Plus (WA+) is a standard framework that provides estimates of manageable and unmanageable water flows, stocks, consumption among users, and interactions with land use. The water balance terms are estimated based on remotely sensed data from online open access databases. The main difference with other methods is the use of spatiotemporal data, limiting the errors due to the use of static data. So far, no studies have incorporated climate change scenarios in the WA+ framework to assess future water resources, which would be desirable for developing mitigation and adaptation policies. Moreover WA+ has been implemented using remote sensing data while hydrological models data can also be used as inputs for projections on the future water accounts. This study aims to address the above challenges by providing quantified information on the current and projected state of the Volta basin water resources through the WA+ framework. The transboundary Volta basin in West Africa is vulnerable to floods and droughts that damage properties and take lives. Residents are dependent on subsistence agriculture, mainly rainfed, which is sensitive to changes and variation in the climate. Spatially, rainfall shows high spatiotemporal variability with a south-north gradient of increasing aridity. As in many basins in semi-arid environments, most of the rainfall in the Volta basin returns to the atmosphere. The competition for scarce water resources will increase in the near future due to the combined effects of urbanization, economic development, and rapid population growth. Moreover, upstream and downstream countries do not agree on their national priorities regarding the use of water and this brings tensions among them. Burkina Faso increasingly builds small and medium reservoirs for small-scale irrigation, while Ghana seeks to increase electricity production. Information on current and future water resources and uses is thus fundamental for water actors. The adopted methodology for this study will consist of using hydrological models, downscaled climate scenarios, satellite measurements and public domain data. The expected outputs are an assessment of the impacts of external (climate change) and internal influences (land use change) on water resources, their implications for water availability and current and projected water accounting reports. The WA+ framework allows computing a set of indicators that are used to summarize the overall water resources situation. They give an insight of the parts of water that are available, utilized, utilizable, managed, manageable and beneficial or not for the consumptive use. In a transboundary context, the WA+ methodology can serve as a central database on water-land-ecosystems to be used by decision makers. An independent and unbiased assessment of the spatiotemporal availability of water resources and uses could potentially alleviate tensions among the riparian countries.

SWAT-MODSIM-PSO optimization of multi-crop planning in the Karkheh River Basin, Iran, under the impacts of climate change.

PubMed

Fereidoon, Majid; Koch, Manfred

2018-07-15

Agriculture is one of the environmental/economic sectors that may adversely be affected by climate change, especially, in already nowadays water-scarce regions, like the Middle East. One way to cope with future changes in absolute as well as seasonal (irrigation) water amounts can be the adaptation of the agricultural crop pattern in a region, i.e. by planting crops which still provide high yields and so economic benefits to farmers under such varying climate conditions. To do this properly, the whole cascade starting from climate change, effects on hydrology and surface water availability, subsequent effects on crop yield, agricultural areas available, and, finally, economic value of a multi-crop cultivation pattern must be known. To that avail, a complex coupled simulation-optimization tool SWAT-LINGO-MODSIM-PSO (SLMP) has been developed here and used to find the future optimum cultivation area of crops for the maximization of the economic benefits in five irrigation-fed agricultural plains in the south of the Karkheh River Basin (KRB) southwest Iran. Starting with the SWAT distributed hydrological model, the KR-streamflow as well as the inflow into the Karkheh-reservoir, as the major storage of irrigation water, is calibrated and validated, based on 1985-2004 observed discharge data. In the subsequent step, the SWAT-predicted streamflow is fed into the MODSIM river basin Decision Support System to simulate and optimize the water allocation between different water users (agricultural, environmental, municipal and industrial) under standard operating policy (SOP) rules. The final step is the maximization of the economic benefit in the five agricultural plains through constrained PSO (particle swarm optimization) by adjusting the cultivation areas (decision variables) of different crops (wheat, barley, maize and "others"), taking into account their specific prizes and optimal crop yields under water deficiency, with the latter computed in the LINGO-sub-optimization module embedded in the SLMP-tool. For the optimization of the agricultural benefits in the KRB in the near future (2038-2060), quantile-mapping (QM) bias-corrected downscaled predictors for daily precipitation and temperatures of the HadGEM2-ES GCM-model under RCP4.5- and RCP8.5-emission scenarios are used as climate drivers in the streamflow- and crop yield simulations of the SWAT-model, leading to corresponding changes in the final outcome (economic benefit) of the SLMP-tool. In fact, whereas for the historical period (1985-2004) a total annual benefit of 94.2 million US$ for all multi-crop areas in KRB is computed, there is a decrease to 88.3 million US$ and 72.1 million US$ for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, in the near future (2038-2060) prediction period. In fact, this future income decrease is due to a substantial shift from cultivation areas devoted nowadays to high-price wheat and barley in the winter season to low-price maize-covered areas in the future summers, owing to a future seasonal change of SWAT-predicted irrigation water available, i.e. less in the winter and more in the summer. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multiple resource use efficiency (mRUE): A new concept for ecosystem production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Han, Juanjuan; Chen, Jiquan; Miao, Yuan

The resource-driven concept, which is an important school for investigating ecosystem production, has been applied for decades. However, the regulatory mechanisms of production by multiple resources remain unclear. We formulated a new algorithm model that integrates multiple resource uses to study ecosystem production and tested its applications on a water-availability gradient in semi-arid grassland. The result of our experiment showed that changes in water availability significantly affected the resources of light and nitrogen, and altered the relationships among multiple resource absorption rate (ε), multiple resource use efficiency (mRUE), and available resource (R avail). The increased water availability suppressed ecosystem mRUEmore » (i.e., “declining marginal returns”); The changes in mRUE had a negative effect on ε (i.e., “inverse feedback”). These two processes jointly regulated that the stimulated single resource availability would promote ecosystem production rather than suppress it, even when mRUE was reduced. This study illustrated the use of the mRUE model in exploring the coherent relationships among the key parameters on regulating the ecosystem production for future modeling, and evaluated the sensitivity of this conceptual model under different dataset properties. Furthermore, this model needs extensive validation by the ecological community before it can extrapolate this method to other ecosystems in the future.« less

Multiple resource use efficiency (mRUE): A new concept for ecosystem production

DOE PAGES

Han, Juanjuan; Chen, Jiquan; Miao, Yuan; ...

2016-11-21

The resource-driven concept, which is an important school for investigating ecosystem production, has been applied for decades. However, the regulatory mechanisms of production by multiple resources remain unclear. We formulated a new algorithm model that integrates multiple resource uses to study ecosystem production and tested its applications on a water-availability gradient in semi-arid grassland. The result of our experiment showed that changes in water availability significantly affected the resources of light and nitrogen, and altered the relationships among multiple resource absorption rate (ε), multiple resource use efficiency (mRUE), and available resource (R avail). The increased water availability suppressed ecosystem mRUEmore » (i.e., “declining marginal returns”); The changes in mRUE had a negative effect on ε (i.e., “inverse feedback”). These two processes jointly regulated that the stimulated single resource availability would promote ecosystem production rather than suppress it, even when mRUE was reduced. This study illustrated the use of the mRUE model in exploring the coherent relationships among the key parameters on regulating the ecosystem production for future modeling, and evaluated the sensitivity of this conceptual model under different dataset properties. Furthermore, this model needs extensive validation by the ecological community before it can extrapolate this method to other ecosystems in the future.« less

Multiple Resource Use Efficiency (mRUE): A New Concept for Ecosystem Production.

PubMed

Han, Juanjuan; Chen, Jiquan; Miao, Yuan; Wan, Shiqiang

2016-11-21

The resource-driven concept, which is an important school for investigating ecosystem production, has been applied for decades. However, the regulatory mechanisms of production by multiple resources remain unclear. We formulated a new algorithm model that integrates multiple resource uses to study ecosystem production and tested its applications on a water-availability gradient in semi-arid grassland. The result of our experiment showed that changes in water availability significantly affected the resources of light and nitrogen, and altered the relationships among multiple resource absorption rate (ε), multiple resource use efficiency (mRUE), and available resource (R avail ). The increased water availability suppressed ecosystem mRUE (i.e., "declining marginal returns"); The changes in mRUE had a negative effect on ε (i.e., "inverse feedback"). These two processes jointly regulated that the stimulated single resource availability would promote ecosystem production rather than suppress it, even when mRUE was reduced. This study illustrated the use of the mRUE model in exploring the coherent relationships among the key parameters on regulating the ecosystem production for future modeling, and evaluated the sensitivity of this conceptual model under different dataset properties. However, this model needs extensive validation by the ecological community before it can extrapolate this method to other ecosystems in the future.

Water Data Report: An Annotated Bibliography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dunham Whitehead, Camilla; Melody, Moya

2007-05-01

This report and its accompanying Microsoft Excel workbooksummarize water data we found to support efforts of the EnvironmentalProtection Agency s WaterSense program. WaterSense aims to extend theoperating life of water and wastewater treatment facilities and prolongthe availability of water resourcesby reducing residential andcommercial water consumption through the voluntary replacement ofinefficient water-using products with more efficient ones. WaterSense hasan immediate need for water consumption data categorized by sector and,for the residential sector, per capita data available by region. Thisinformation will assist policy makers, water and wastewater utilityplanners, and others in defining and refining program possibilities.Future data needs concern water supply, wastewatermore » flow volumes, waterquality, and watersheds. This report focuses primarily on the immediateneed for data regarding water consumption and product end-use. We found avariety of data on water consumption at the national, state, andmunicipal levels. We also found several databases related towater-consuming products. Most of the data are available in electronicform on the Web pages of the data-collecting organizations. In addition,we found national, state, and local data on water supply, wastewater,water quality, and watersheds.« less

Projections of water resources availability in Crete for the 21st century under the global change perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutroulis, A. G.; Tsanis, I. K.; Jacob, D.

2012-04-01

A robust signal of a warmer and drier climate over the western Mediterranean region is projected from the majority of climate models. This effect appears more pronounced during warm periods, when the seasonal decrease of precipitation can exceed control climatology by 25-30%. The rapid development of Crete in the last 30 years has exerted strong pressures on the natural resources of the region. Urbanization and growth of agriculture, tourism and industry had strong impact on the water resources of island by substantially increasing water demand. The objective of this study is to analyze and assess the impact of global change on the water resources status for the island of Crete for a range of 24 different scenarios of projected hydro-climatological regime, demand and supply potential. Water resources application issues analyzed and facilitated within this study, focusing on a refinement of the future water demands of the island, and comparing with "state of the art" global climate model (GCM) results and an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) under three different emission scenarios, to estimate water resources availability, during the 21st century. A robust signal of water scarcity is projected for all the combinations of emission (A2, A1B and B1), demand and infrastructure scenarios. Despite the uncertainty of the assessments, the quantitative impact of the projected changes on water availability indicates that climate change plays an equally important role to water use and management in controlling future water status in a Mediterranean island like the island of Crete. The outcome of this analysis will assist in short and long-term strategic water resources planning by prioritizing water related infrastructure development.

Flow regime alterations under changing climate in two river basins: Implications for freshwater ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gibson, C.A.; Meyer, J.L.; Poff, N.L.; Hay, L.E.; Georgakakos, A.

2005-01-01

We examined impacts of future climate scenarios on flow regimes and how predicted changes might affect river ecosystems. We examined two case studies: Cle Elum River, Washington, and Chattahoochee-Apalachicola River Basin, Georgia and Florida. These rivers had available downscaled global circulation model (GCM) data and allowed us to analyse the effects of future climate scenarios on rivers with (1) different hydrographs, (2) high future water demands, and (3) a river-floodplain system. We compared observed flow regimes to those predicted under future climate scenarios to describe the extent and type of changes predicted to occur. Daily stream flow under future climate scenarios was created by either statistically downscaling GCMs (Cle Elum) or creating a regression model between climatological parameters predicted from GCMs and stream flow (Chattahoochee-Apalachicola). Flow regimes were examined for changes from current conditions with respect to ecologically relevant features including the magnitude and timing of minimum and maximum flows. The Cle Elum's hydrograph under future climate scenarios showed a dramatic shift in the timing of peak flows and lower low flow of a longer duration. These changes could mean higher summer water temperatures, lower summer dissolved oxygen, and reduced survival of larval fishes. The Chattahoochee-Apalachicola basin is heavily impacted by dams and water withdrawals for human consumption; therefore, we made comparisons between pre-large dam conditions, current conditions, current conditions with future demand, and future climate scenarios with future demand to separate climate change effects and other anthropogenic impacts. Dam construction, future climate, and future demand decreased the flow variability of the river. In addition, minimum flows were lower under future climate scenarios. These changes could decrease the connectivity of the channel and the floodplain, decrease habitat availability, and potentially lower the ability of the river to assimilate wastewater treatment plant effluent. Our study illustrates the types of changes that river ecosystems might experience under future climates. Copyright ?? 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Do changes in climate and land use pose a risk to the future water availability of Mediterranean Lakes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bucak, T.; Trolle, D.; Andersen, H. E.; Thodsen, H.; Erdoğan, Ş.; Levi, E. E.; Filiz, N.; Jeppesen, E.; Beklioğlu, M.

2016-12-01

Inter- and intra-annual water level fluctuations and change in water flow regime are intrinsic characteristics of Mediterranean lakes. However, considering the climate change projections for the water-limited Mediterranean region where potential evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation and with increased air temperatures and decreased precipitation, more dramatic water level declines in lakes and severe water scarcity problems are expected to occur in the future. Our study lake, Lake Beyşehir, the largest freshwater lake in the Mediterranean basin, is - like other Mediterranean lakes - under pressure due to water abstraction for irrigated crop farming and climatic changes, and integrated water level management is therefore required. We used an integrated modeling approach to predict the future lake water level of Lake Beyşehir in response to the future changes in both climate and, potentially, land use by linking the catchment model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with a Support Vector Machine Regression model (ɛ-SVR). We found that climate change projections caused enhanced potential evapotranspiration and reduced total runoff, whereas the effects of various land use scenarios within the catchment were comparatively minor. In all climate scenarios applied in the ɛ-SVR model, changes in hydrological processes caused a water level reduction, predicting that the lake may dry out already in the 2040s with the current outflow regulation considering the most pessimistic scenario. Based on model runs with optimum outflow management, a 9-60% reduction in outflow withdrawal is needed to prevent the lake from drying out by the end of this century. Our results indicate that shallow Mediterranean lakes may face a severe risk of drying out and loss of ecosystem value in near future if the current intense water abstraction is maintained. Therefore, we conclude that outflow management in water-limited regions in a warmer and drier future and sustainable use of water sources are vitally important to sustain lake ecosystems and their ecosystem services.

Water data in US: a spatial, temporal and sectoral analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Josset, L.; Allaire, M.; Rising, J. A.; Thomas, C.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

Water data plays a crucial role in the development and implementation of sustainable water management strategies. Both effective design and assessment hinge on accurate information. This requires environmental, climatic, hydrologic, hydrogeologic, industrial, agricultural, energetic and socio-economic data to accurately characterize and project future supply and demand. In 2001, Vorosmarty et al. painted a stark future for water data, which was qualified as ``a new endangered species". Sixteen years after this publication, we propose a review of the current state of water data in the United States. While considerable progress has been made in data science and model development in the recent years, models are only as good as the data that populate them. After a brief overview of water data aggregated at the national level, we compare datasets from federal agencies with water information collected by individual states. We note in particular the potential gaps in the collected information that would support research beyond water balance accounts to informing regulations, investments, and economic decisions. In addition, we assess the information structures that host and disseminate data as well as data availability and usability (i.e. whether tools are proposed such as metrics, visualization, projections). We conclude our paper with a review of the current technological developments, policies and initiatives that may be transformative and redefine the future of water data. We follow two angles: the progress made in data collection (e.g. remote sensing, datascience, reporting policies) and in data dissemination (frameworks, cyber-infrastructures and standards). We review in particular the current initiatives taking place in US and around the world that promote water data freely available to all.

Rhode Island Water Supply System Management Plan Database (WSSMP-Version 1.0)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Granato, Gregory E.

2004-01-01

In Rhode Island, the availability of water of sufficient quality and quantity to meet current and future environmental and economic needs is vital to life and the State's economy. Water suppliers, the Rhode Island Water Resources Board (RIWRB), and other State agencies responsible for water resources in Rhode Island need information about available resources, the water-supply infrastructure, and water use patterns. These decision makers need historical, current, and future water-resource information. In 1997, the State of Rhode Island formalized a system of Water Supply System Management Plans (WSSMPs) to characterize and document relevant water-supply information. All major water suppliers (those that obtain, transport, purchase, or sell more than 50 million gallons of water per year) are required to prepare, maintain, and carry out WSSMPs. An electronic database for this WSSMP information has been deemed necessary by the RIWRB for water suppliers and State agencies to consistently document, maintain, and interpret the information in these plans. Availability of WSSMP data in standard formats will allow water suppliers and State agencies to improve the understanding of water-supply systems and to plan for future needs or water-supply emergencies. In 2002, however, the Rhode Island General Assembly passed a law that classifies some of the WSSMP information as confidential to protect the water-supply infrastructure from potential terrorist threats. Therefore the WSSMP database was designed for an implementation method that will balance security concerns with the information needs of the RIWRB, suppliers, other State agencies, and the public. A WSSMP database was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the RIWRB. The database was designed to catalog WSSMP information in a format that would accommodate synthesis of current and future information about Rhode Island's water-supply infrastructure. This report documents the design and implementation of the WSSMP database. All WSSMP information in the database is, ultimately, linked to the individual water suppliers and to a WSSMP 'cycle' (which is currently a 5-year planning cycle for compiling WSSMP information). The database file contains 172 tables - 47 data tables, 61 association tables, 61 domain tables, and 3 example import-link tables. This database is currently implemented in the Microsoft Access database software because it is widely used within and outside of government and is familiar to many existing and potential customers. Design documentation facilitates current use and potential modification for future use of the database. Information within the structure of the WSSMP database file (WSSMPv01.mdb), a data dictionary file (WSSMPDD1.pdf), a detailed database-design diagram (WSSMPPL1.pdf), and this database-design report (OFR2004-1231.pdf) documents the design of the database. This report includes a discussion of each WSSMP data structure with an accompanying database-design diagram. Appendix 1 of this report is an index of the diagrams in the report and on the plate; this index is organized by table name in alphabetical order. Each of these products is included in digital format on the enclosed CD-ROM to facilitate use or modification of the database.

Vulnerability of Water Resources under Climate and Land Use Change: Evaluation of Present and Future Threats for Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nachtnebel, Hans-Peter; Wesemann, Johannes; Herrnegger, Mathew; Senoner, Tobias; Schulz, Karsten

2015-04-01

Climate and Land Use Change can have severe impacts on natural water resources needed for domestic, agricultural and industrial water use. In order to develop adaptation strategies, it is necessary to assess the present and future vulnerability of the water resources on the basis of water quantity, water quality and adaptive capacity indicators. Therefore a methodological framework was developed within the CC-Ware project and a detailed assessment was performed for Austria. The Water Exploitation Index (WEI) is introduced as a quantitative indicator. It is defined as the ratio between the water demand and the water availability. Water availability is assessed by a high resolution grid-based water balance model, utilizing the meteorological information from bias corrected regional climate models. The demand term can be divided into domestic, agricultural and industrial water demand and is assessed on the water supply association level. The Integrated Groundwater Pollution Load Index (GWPLI) represents an indicator for areas at risk regarding water quality, considering agricultural loads (nitrate pollution loads), potential erosion and potential risks from landfills. Except for the landfills, the information for the current situation is based on the CORINE Landcover data. Future changes were predicted utilizing the PRELUDE land use scenarios. Since vulnerability is also dependent on the adaptive capacity of a system, the Adaptive Capacity Index is introduced. The Adaptive Capacity Index thereby combines the Ecosystem Service Index (ESSI), which represents three water related ecosystem services (Water Provision, Water Quantity Regulation and Water Quality Regulation) and the regional economic capacity expressed by the gross value added. On the basis of these indices, the Overall Vulnerability of the water resources can be determined for the present and the future. For Austria the different indices were elaborated. Maps indicating areas of different levels of vulnerability were developed. A comparison with existing data (River Basin Management Plan and Groundwater Chemistry Regulation) shows a good agreement between the elaborated maps and observations for the present state. The Overall Vulnerability is very low and low for most parts of Austria, especially in the forested alpine region. Bigger cities like Vienna, Graz and Linz show medium vulnerabilities, due to the high water demand and low ecosystem services. Only in the north-eastern and south-eastern part of the country some water supply associations with high and very high overall vulnerability exist. Groundwater recharge is quite small in these regions and the water quality is limited due to intense agriculture and possible threats through landfills. The developed framework allows an evaluation of water quantity and quality vulnerabilities for large scales for the present and the future. Including ecosystem services and gross value added an overall vulnerability can be determined.

Improving the local relevance of large scale water demand predictions: the way forward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhard, Jeroen; Reynaud, Arnaud; de Roo, Ad

2016-04-01

Securing adequate availability of fresh water is of vital importance for socio-economic development of present and future Europe. Due to strong heterogeneity in climate conditions, some regions receive an abundant supply of water, where other areas almost completely depend on limited river discharge from upstream catchments. Furthermore, water demand differs greatly between regions due to differences in population density and local presence of intensive water using industries and agriculture. This results in many situations all across Europe where competition between water users translates into relative scarcity and economic damage. Additionally it is expected that inter-related economic and demographic developments, as well as climate change are to only further increase the need for efficient management of our water resources in the future. Successful policy making for such complex problems requires a good understanding of the system and reliable forecasting of conditions. The extent and complexity of the water use system however, stands in high contrast with the poor state of available data and lack of reliable predictions for this multi-disciplinary topic. Although the matching of available water to its demand is a European-wide problem, the amount of data with pan-European coverage is limited and usually with a national resolution at best. This is hindering researchers and policy makers because it usually makes large scale water demand predictions little relevant due to the strong regional heterogenic nature of the problem. We present in our study a first attempt of European-wide water demand predictions based on consistent regional data and econometric methods for the household and industry sector. We gathered data on water consumption, water prices and other relevant variables at the highest spatial detail available from national statistical offices and other organizational bodies. This database provides the most detailed up to date picture of present water use and water prices. Subsequently, econometric estimates allow us to make a monetary valuation of water and identify the dominant drivers of domestic and industrial water demand per country. Combined with socio-economic, demographic and climate scenarios we made predictions for future Europe. Since this is a first attempt we obtained mixed results between countries when it comes to data availability and therefore model uncertainty. For some countries we have been able to develop robust predictions based on vast amounts of data while some other countries proved more challenging. We do feel however, that large scale predictions based on regional data are the way forward to provide relevant scientific policy support. In order to improve on our work it is imperative to further expand our database of consistent regional data. We are looking forward to any kind of input and would be very interested in sharing our data to collaborate towards a better understanding of the water use system.

Dynamic modeling of the Ganga river system: impacts of future climate and socio-economic change on flows and nitrogen fluxes in India and Bangladesh.

PubMed

Whitehead, P G; Sarkar, S; Jin, L; Futter, M N; Caesar, J; Barbour, E; Butterfield, D; Sinha, R; Nicholls, R; Hutton, C; Leckie, H D

2015-06-01

This study investigates the potential impacts of future climate and socio-economic change on the flow and nitrogen fluxes of the Ganga river system. This is the first basin scale water quality study for the Ganga considering climate change at 25 km resolution together with socio-economic scenarios. The revised dynamic, process-based INCA model was used to simulate hydrology and water quality within the complex multi-branched river basins. All climate realizations utilized in the study predict increases in temperature and rainfall by the 2050s with significant increase by the 2090s. These changes generate associated increases in monsoon flows and increased availability of water for groundwater recharge and irrigation, but also more frequent flooding. Decreased concentrations of nitrate and ammonia are expected due to increased dilution. Different future socio-economic scenarios were found to have a significant impact on water quality at the downstream end of the Ganga. A less sustainable future resulted in a deterioration of water quality due to the pressures from higher population growth, land use change, increased sewage treatment discharges, enhanced atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and water abstraction. However, water quality was found to improve under a more sustainable strategy as envisaged in the Ganga clean-up plan.

District wide water resources investigation and management using LANDSAT data. Phase 1: Lake volume

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shih, S. F. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

A technique for estimating available water storage volume using LANDSAT data was developed and applied to Lake Washington and Lake Harris in central Florida. The technique can be applied two ways. First, where the historical stage records are available, the historical LANDSAT data can be used to establish the relationship between lake volume and lake stage. In the second case, where the historical stage records are not available, the historical LANDSAT data can be used to estimate the historical lake stage after the lake volume and stage information become available in the future.

On inclusion of water resource management in Earth system models - Part 1: Problem definition and representation of water demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazemi, A.; Wheater, H. S.

2015-01-01

Human activities have caused various changes to the Earth system, and hence the interconnections between human activities and the Earth system should be recognized and reflected in models that simulate Earth system processes. One key anthropogenic activity is water resource management, which determines the dynamics of human-water interactions in time and space and controls human livelihoods and economy, including energy and food production. There are immediate needs to include water resource management in Earth system models. First, the extent of human water requirements is increasing rapidly at the global scale and it is crucial to analyze the possible imbalance between water demands and supply under various scenarios of climate change and across various temporal and spatial scales. Second, recent observations show that human-water interactions, manifested through water resource management, can substantially alter the terrestrial water cycle, affect land-atmospheric feedbacks and may further interact with climate and contribute to sea-level change. Due to the importance of water resource management in determining the future of the global water and climate cycles, the World Climate Research Program's Global Energy and Water Exchanges project (WRCP-GEWEX) has recently identified gaps in describing human-water interactions as one of the grand challenges in Earth system modeling (GEWEX, 2012). Here, we divide water resource management into two interdependent elements, related firstly to water demand and secondly to water supply and allocation. In this paper, we survey the current literature on how various components of water demand have been included in large-scale models, in particular land surface and global hydrological models. Issues of water supply and allocation are addressed in a companion paper. The available algorithms to represent the dominant demands are classified based on the demand type, mode of simulation and underlying modeling assumptions. We discuss the pros and cons of available algorithms, address various sources of uncertainty and highlight limitations in current applications. We conclude that current capability of large-scale models to represent human water demands is rather limited, particularly with respect to future projections and coupled land-atmospheric simulations. To fill these gaps, the available models, algorithms and data for representing various water demands should be systematically tested, intercompared and improved. In particular, human water demands should be considered in conjunction with water supply and allocation, particularly in the face of water scarcity and unknown future climate.

Pan-European household and industrial water demand: regional relevant estimations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhard, Jeroen; Reynaud, Arnaud; de Roo, Ad

2016-04-01

Sustainable water management is of high importance to provide adequate quality and quantity of water to European households, industries and agriculture. Especially since demographic, economic and climate changes are expected to increase competition for water between these sectors in the future. A shortage of water implies a reduction in welfare of households or damage to economic sectors. This socio-economic component should be incorporated into the decision-making process when developing water allocation schemes, requiring detailed water use information and cost/benefit functions. We now present the results of our study which is focused at providing regionally relevant pan-European water demand and cost-benefit estimations for the household and industry sector. We gathered consistent data on water consumption, water prices and other relevant variables at the highest spatial detail available from national statistical offices and other organizational bodies. This database provides the most detailed up to date picture of present water use and water prices across Europe. The use of homogeneous data allowed us to compare regions and analyze spatial patterns. We applied econometric methods to determine the main determinants of water demand and make a monetary valuation of water for both the domestic and industry sector. This monetary valuation is important to allow water allocation based on economic damage estimates. We also attempted to estimate how population growth, as well as socio-economic and climatic changes impact future water demand up to 2050 using a homogeneous method for all countries. European projections for the identified major drivers of water demand were used to simulate future conditions. Subsequently, water demand functions were applied to estimate future water use and potential economic damage caused by water shortages. We present our results while also providing some estimation of the uncertainty of our predictions.

Modeling the future evolution of the virtual water trade network: A combination of network and gravity models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sartori, Martina; Schiavo, Stefano; Fracasso, Andrea; Riccaboni, Massimo

2017-12-01

The paper investigates how the topological features of the virtual water (VW) network and the size of the associated VW flows are likely to change over time, under different socio-economic and climate scenarios. We combine two alternative models of network formation -a stochastic and a fitness model, used to describe the structure of VW flows- with a gravity model of trade to predict the intensity of each bilateral flow. This combined approach is superior to existing methodologies in its ability to replicate the observed features of VW trade. The insights from the models are used to forecast future VW flows in 2020 and 2050, under different climatic scenarios, and compare them with future water availability. Results suggest that the current trend of VW exports is not sustainable for all countries. Moreover, our approach highlights that some VW importers might be exposed to "imported water stress" as they rely heavily on imports from countries whose water use is unsustainable.

Assessing Potential Implications of Climate Change for Long-Term Water Resources Planning in the Colorado River Basin, Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munevar, A.; Butler, S.; Anderson, R.; Rippole, J.

2008-12-01

While much of the focus on climate change impacts to water resources in the western United States has been related to snow-dominated watersheds, lower elevation basins such as the Colorado River Basin in Texas are dependent on rainfall as the predominant form of precipitation and source of supply. Water management in these basins has evolved to adapt to extreme climatic and hydrologic variability, but the impact of climate change is potentially more acute due to rapid runoff response and subsequent greater soil moisture depletion during the dry seasons. The Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) - San Antonio Water System (SAWS) Water Project is being studied to conserve water, develop conjunctive groundwater supplies, and capture excess and unused river flows to meet future water needs for two neighboring regions in Texas. Agricultural and other rural water needs would be met on a more reliable basis in the lower Colorado River Basin through water conservation, surface water development and limited groundwater production. Surface water would be transferred to the San Antonio area to meet municipal needs in quantities still being evaluated. Detailed studies are addressing environmental, agricultural, socioeconomic, and engineering aspects of the project. Key planning activities include evaluating instream flow criteria, water quality, bay freshwater inflow criteria, surface water availability and operating approaches, agricultural conservation measures, groundwater availability, and economics. Models used to estimate future water availability and environmental flow requirements have been developed largely based on historical observed hydrologic data. This is a common approach used by water planners as well as by many regulatory agencies for permit review. In view of the project's 80-yr planning horizon, contractual obligations, comments from the Science Review Panel, and increased public and regulatory awareness of climate change issues, the project team is exploring climate change projections and methods to assess potential impacts over the project's expected life. Following an initial qualitative risk assessment, quantitative climate scenarios were developed based on multiple coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations under a range of global emission scenarios. Projected temperature and precipitation changes were evaluated from 112 downscaled AOGCM projections. A Four scenarios were selected for detailed hydrologic evaluations using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale model. A quantile mapping procedure was applied to map future climatological period change statistics onto the long-term natural climate variability in the observed record. Simulated changes in runoff, river flow, evaporation, and evapotranspiration are used to generate adjustments to historical hydrology for assessment of potential changes to surface water availability, river water quality, riverine habitat, and Bay health. Projected temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are used to estimate changes in agricultural demand. Sea level rise scenarios that include trends in Gulf Coast shelf subsidence are combined with changes in inflows to evaluate increased coastal erosion, upland migration of the estuary, and changes to the salinity regime. Results of the scenario-based analyses are being considered in the development of adaptive management strategies for future operations of the system and the proposed project.

Encouraging consumption of water in school and child care settings: access, challenges, and strategies for improvement.

PubMed

Patel, Anisha I; Hampton, Karla E

2011-08-01

Children and adolescents are not consuming enough water, instead opting for sugar-sweetened beverages (sodas, sports and energy drinks, milks, coffees, and fruit-flavored drinks with added sugars), 100% fruit juice, and other beverages. Drinking sufficient amounts of water can lead to improved weight status, reduced dental caries, and improved cognition among children and adolescents. Because children spend most of their day at school and in child care, ensuring that safe, potable drinking water is available in these settings is a fundamental public health measure. We sought to identify challenges that limit access to drinking water; opportunities, including promising practices, to increase drinking water availability and consumption; and future research, policy efforts, and funding needed in this area.

Household water demand and welfare loss for future Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhard, Jeroen; Reynaud, Arnaud; Lanzanova, Denis; de Roo, Ad

2015-04-01

Matching the availability of water to its demand in Europe is a major challenge for the future due to expected economic and demographic developments and climate change. This means there is a growing need to estimate future water demand and to optimize the water allocation to all end users to counteract welfare loss. At the European scale it is currently not possible to assess the impact of social and economic changes on future water demand or to prioritize water allocation amongst different sectors based on economic damage without extensive use of assumptions and generalizations. Indeed, our review of existing regional optimization models for Europe reveals that the social-economic component of the water use system needs to be improved by complementing them with detailed water use estimates and cost/benefit functions in order to determine the optimal situation. Our study contributes to closing this knowledge gap for the European household sector by quantifying future water demand and the effect of water pricing, as well as providing a method for the calculation of monetary damage due to unmet demand at the highest spatial resolution possible. We used a water demand function approach in which household water consumption depends upon some exogenous drivers including water price, household income, population and household characteristics and climate conditions. For each European country, the annual water consumption per capita was calculated at regional level (NUTS3) and subsequently disaggregated to five kilometer grid level based on a population density map. In order to produce estimates of water demand, the evolution of the explanatory variables of the water demand functions and population density map were simulated until 2050 based on related variables such as GDP and demographic projections. The results of this study will be integrated into the JRC hydro-economic modelling framework for an assessment of the Water-Agriculture-Energy-Ecosystems Nexus.

Integrated Energy-Water Planning in the Western and Texas Interconnections (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tidwell, V. C.

2013-12-01

While thermoelectric power generation accounts for less than one percent of total water consumption in the western U.S, steady growth in demand is projected for this sector. Complexities and heterogeneity in water supply, water demand, and institutional controls make water development a challenging proposition throughout the West. A consortium of National Laboratories, the University of Texas and the Electric Power Research Institute are working with the Western Governors' Association and Western States Water Council to assist the Western Electricity Coordinating Council and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas to integrate water related issues into long-term transmission planning. Specifically, water withdrawal and consumption have been estimated for each western power plant and their susceptibility to climate impacts assessed. To assist with transmission planning, water availability and cost data have been mapped at the 8-digit Hydrologic Unit Code level for the conterminous western U.S. (1208 watersheds). Five water sources were individually considered, including unappropriated surface water, unappropriated groundwater, appropriated water, municipal wastewater and brackish groundwater. Also mapped is projected growth in consumptive water demand to 2030. The relative costs (capital and O&M) to secure, convey, and treat the water as necessary have also been estimated for each source of water. These data configured into watershed level supply curves were subsequently used to constrain West-wide transmission planning. Results across a range of alternative energy futures indicate the impact of water availability and cost on the makeup and siting of future power generation. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000. Water budgets at a 8-digit HUC level constructed by aggregating available water (all five sources) and subtracting projected change in demand for 2010-2030.

Urban water metabolism efficiency assessment: integrated analysis of available and virtual water.

PubMed

Huang, Chu-Long; Vause, Jonathan; Ma, Hwong-Wen; Yu, Chang-Ping

2013-05-01

Resolving the complex environmental problems of water pollution and shortage which occur during urbanization requires the systematic assessment of urban water metabolism efficiency (WME). While previous research has tended to focus on either available or virtual water metabolism, here we argue that the systematic problems arising during urbanization require an integrated assessment of available and virtual WME, using an indicator system based on material flow analysis (MFA) results. Future research should focus on the following areas: 1) analysis of available and virtual water flow patterns and processes through urban districts in different urbanization phases in years with varying amounts of rainfall, and their environmental effects; 2) based on the optimization of social, economic and environmental benefits, establishment of an indicator system for urban WME assessment using MFA results; 3) integrated assessment of available and virtual WME in districts with different urbanization levels, to facilitate study of the interactions between the natural and social water cycles; 4) analysis of mechanisms driving differences in WME between districts with different urbanization levels, and the selection of dominant social and economic driving indicators, especially those impacting water resource consumption. Combinations of these driving indicators could then be used to design efficient water resource metabolism solutions, and integrated management policies for reduced water consumption. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of Climate Change on Irrigation and Hydropower Potential: A Case of Upper Blue Nile Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdella, E. J.; Gosain, A. K.; Khosa, R.

2017-12-01

Due to the growing pressure in water resource and climate change there is great uncertainty in the availability of water for existing as well as proposed irrigation and hydropower projects in the Upper Blue Nile basin (longitude 34oE and 39oE and latitude 7oN and 12oN). This study quantitatively assessed the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of the basin which intern affect water availability for different use including hydropower and irrigation. Ensemble of four bias corrected regional climate models (RCM) of CORDEX Africa domain and two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used to determine climate projections for future (2021-2050) period. The outputs from the climate models used to drive the calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model to simulate future runoff. The simulated discharge were used as input to a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) water allocation model to determine the implication in hydropower and irrigation potential of the basin. The WEAP model was setup to simulate three scenarios which includes Current, Medium-term (by 2025) and Long-term (by 2050) Development scenario. The projected mean annual temperature of the basin are warmer than the baseline (1982 - 2005) average in the range of 1 to 1.4oC. Projected mean annual precipitation varies across the basin in the range of - 3% to 7%, much of the expected increase is in the highland region of the basin. The water use simulation indicate that the current annual average irrigation water demand in the basin is 1.29Bm3y-1 with 100% coverage. By 2025 and 2050, with the development of new schemes and changing climate, water demand for irrigation is estimated to increase by 2.5 Bm3y-1 and 3.4 Bm3y-1 with 99 % and 96% coverage respectively. Simulation for domestic water demand coverage for all scenarios shows that there will be 100% coverage for the two major cities in the basin. The hydropower generation simulation indicate that 98% of hydroelectricity potential could be produced if all planed dams are constructed. The results in this study demonstrate the general idea of future water availability for different purpose in the basin, but uncertainties still exist in the projected future climate and simulated runoff. Optimal operation of existing and proposed reservoirs is also crucial in the context of climate change.

The role of reservoir storage in large-scale surface water availability analysis for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrote, L. M.; Granados, A.; Martin-Carrasco, F.; Iglesias, A.

2017-12-01

A regional assessment of current and future water availability in Europe is presented in this study. The assessment was made using the Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Analysis (WAAPA) model. The model was built on the river network derived from the Hydro1K digital elevation maps, including all major river basins of Europe. Reservoir storage volume was taken from the World Register of Dams of ICOLD, including all dams with storage capacity over 5 hm3. Potential Water Availability is defined as the maximum amount of water that could be supplied at a certain point of the river network to satisfy a regular demand under pre-specified reliability requirements. Water availability is the combined result of hydrological processes, which determine streamflow in natural conditions, and human intervention, which determines the available hydraulic infrastructure to manage water and establishes water supply conditions through operating rules. The WAAPA algorithm estimates the maximum demand that can be supplied at every node of the river network accounting for the regulation capacity of reservoirs under different management scenarios. The model was run for a set of hydrologic scenarios taken from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), where the PCRGLOBWB hydrological model was forced with results from five global climate models. Model results allow the estimation of potential water stress by comparing water availability to projections of water abstractions along the river network under different management alternatives. The set of sensitivity analyses performed showed the effect of policy alternatives on water availability and highlighted the large uncertainties linked to hydrological and anthropological processes.

Approaches to Identifying the Emerging Innovative Water Technology Industry in the United States.

PubMed

Wood, Allison R; Harten, Teresa; Gutierrez, Sally C

2018-04-25

Clean water is vital to sustaining our natural environment, human health, and our economy. As infrastructure continues to deteriorate and water resources become increasingly threatened, new technologies will be needed to ensure safe and sustainable water in the future. Though the US water industry accounts for approximately 1% gross domestic product and regional "clusters" for water technology exist throughout the country, this emerging industry has not been captured by recent studies. As use of the term "cluster" becomes more prevalent, regional mapping efforts have revealed international differences in definition yet showcase this industry's economic impact. In reality, institutional processes may inhibit altering industry coding to better describe water technology. Forgoing the benefits of national economic tracking, alternative data sets are available, which may support new ways of identifying these clusters. This work provides cluster definitions; summarizes current approaches to identifying industry activity using data, interviews, and literature; and sets a foundation for future research.

Biochar can positively influence soil moisture relations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

One major issue related to climate change is the potential to improve soil water relations in light of changes in future precipitation patterns or reductions in water availability in drier portions of the world (such as the western US). It appears that biochar may play a positive role, but that rol...

Determining Which Dispersants Will Be Effective In Future Deepwater Oil Spills

EPA Science Inventory

Deepwater spills result in oil distributed from deep in the water column to the water surface. The objective of this study was to test eight of the available dispersants (including Corexit 9500A, which was used extensively on the 2010 Deepwater Horizon Spill) on South Louisiana C...

The Community Water Model (CWATM) / Development of a community driven global water model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burek, Peter; Satoh, Yusuke; Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-04-01

With a growing population and economic development, it is expected that water demands will increase significantly in the future, especially in developing regions. At the same time, climate change is expected to alter spatial patterns of hydrological cycle and will have global, regional and local impacts on water availability. Thus, it is important to assess water supply, water demand and environmental needs over time to identify the populations and locations that will be most affected by these changes linked to water scarcity, droughts and floods. The Community Water Model (CWATM) will be designed for this purpose in that it includes an accounting of how future water demands will evolve in response to socioeconomic change and how water availability will change in response to climate. CWATM represents one of the new key elements of IIASA's Water program. It has been developed to work flexibly at both global and regional level at different spatial resolutions. The model is open source and community-driven to promote our work amongst the wider water community worldwide and is flexible enough linking to further planned developments such as water quality and hydro-economic modules. CWATM will be a basis to develop a next-generation global hydro-economic modeling framework that represents the economic trade-offs among different water management options over a basin looking at water supply infrastructure and demand managements. The integrated modeling framework will consider water demand from agriculture, domestic, energy, industry and environment, investment needs to alleviate future water scarcity, and will provide a portfolio of economically optimal solutions for achieving future water management options under the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) for example. In addition, it will be able to track the energy requirements associated with the water supply system e.g., pumping, desalination and interbasin transfer to realize the linkage with the water-energy economy. In a bigger framework of nexus - water, energy, food, ecosystem - CWATM will be coupled to the existing IIASA models including the Integrated Assessment Model MESSAGE and the global land and ecosystem model GLOBIOM in order to realize an improved assessments of water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus and associated feedback. Our vision for the short to medium term work is to introduce water quality (e.g., salinization in deltas and eutrophication associated with mega cities) into CWATM and to consider qualitative and quantitative measures of transboundary river and groundwater governance into an integrated modelling framework.

Regional potentiometric surface of the Ozark aquifer in Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma, November 2014–January 2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nottmeier, Anna M.

2015-12-21

The Ozark aquifer, within the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system (herein referred to as the “Ozark system”), is the primary groundwater source in the Ozark Plateaus physiographic province (herein referred to as the “Ozark Plateaus”) of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma. Groundwater from the Ozark system has historically been an important part of the water resource base, and groundwater availability is a concern in some areas; dependency on the Ozark aquifer as a water supply has caused evolving, localized issues. The construction of a regional potentiometric-surface map of the Ozark aquifer is needed to aid assessment of current and future groundwater use and availability. The regional potentiometric-surface mapping is part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Groundwater Resources Program initiative (http://water.usgs.gov/ogw/gwrp/activities/regional.html) and the Ozark system groundwater availability project (http://ar.water.usgs.gov/ozarks), which seeks to quantify current groundwater resources, evaluate changes in these resources over time, and provide the information needed to simulate system response to future human-related and environmental stresses.The Ozark groundwater availability project objectives include assessing (1) growing demands for groundwater and associated declines in groundwater levels as agricultural, industrial, and public supply pumping increases to address needs; (2) regional climate variability and pumping effects on groundwater and surface-water flow paths; (3) effects of a gradual shift to a greater surface-water dependence in some areas; and (4) shale-gas production requiring groundwater and surface water for hydraulic fracturing. Data compiled and used to construct the regional Ozark aquifer potentiometric surface will aid in the assessment of those objectives.

Asian water futures - Multi scenarios, models and criteria assessment -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Wada, Yoshihide; Flrörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Kahil, Taher; Tramberend, Sylvia; Fischer, Günther; Wiberg, David

2016-04-01

A better understanding of the current and future availability of water resources is essential for the implementation of the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Long-term/efficient strategies for coping with current and potential future water-related challenges are urgently required. Although Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were develop for the impact assessment of climate change, very few assessments have yet used the SSPs to assess water resources. Then the IIASA Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS), developed a set of water use scenarios consistent with RCPs and SSPs and applying the latest climate changes scenarios. Here this study focuses on results for Asian countries for the period 2010-2050. We present three conceivable future pathways of Asian water resources, determined by feasible combinations of two RCPs and three SSPs. Such a scenario approach provides valuable insights towards identifying appropriate strategies as gaps between a "scenario world" and reality. In addition, for the assessment of future water resources a multi-criteria analysis is applied. A classification system for countries and watershed that consists of two broad dimensions: (i) economic and institutional adaptive capacity, (ii) hydrological complexity. The latter is composed of several sub-indexes including total renewable water resources per capita, the ratio of water demand to renewable water resource, variability of runoff and dependency ratio to external. Furthermore, this analysis uses a multi-model approach to estimate runoff and discharge using 5 GCMs and 5 global hydrological models (GHMs). Three of these GHMs calculate water use based on a consistent set of scenarios in addition to water availability. As a result, we have projected hot spots of water scarcity in Asia and their spatial and temporal change. For example, in a scenario based on SSP2 and RCP6.0, by 2050, in total 2.1 billion people (46% of Asian population) are going to live in countries classified as high hydrological complexity. In particular, in Afghanistan, Azerbaijan and Pakistan, then home to 370 million people, hydrological complexity will be high while adaptation capacity is still low. On the other hand, a part of people however who live in countries with higher expected adaptive capacities may have better futures depending on policies and investment. Besides country scale, grid scale analyses clearly highlighted that a large part of population living under strong water stress in highly populated areas of Asia, such as east and coastal areas in China and large parts of India. Our preliminary results show that a significant impact of socioeconomic scenarios on each of the indexes which is comparable to that of climate scenarios. For instance, the least timing, trend and spatial distribution of water resource per capita are highly affected by projected population. This study shows that features of time series change in each indexes are also informative particularly for decision makers because they support in optimal timing of investment for countermeasures. In this presentation, we are showing our analysis framework and results of each integrated indexes.

Integrating Infrastructure and Institutions for Water Security in Large Urban Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padowski, J.; Jawitz, J. W.; Carrera, L.

2015-12-01

Urban growth has forced cities to procure more freshwater to meet demands; however the relationship between urban water security, water availability and water management is not well understood. This work quantifies the urban water security of 108 large cities in the United States (n=50) and Africa (n=58) based on their hydrologic, hydraulic and institutional settings. Using publicly available data, urban water availability was estimated as the volume of water available from local water resources and those captured via hydraulic infrastructure (e.g. reservoirs, wellfields, aqueducts) while urban water institutions were assessed according to their ability to deliver, supply and regulate water resources to cities. When assessing availability, cities relying on local water resources comprised a minority (37%) of those assessed. The majority of cities (55%) instead rely on captured water to meet urban demands, with African cities reaching farther and accessing a greater number and variety of sources for water supply than US cities. Cities using captured water generally had poorer access to local water resources and maintained significantly more complex strategies for water delivery, supply and regulatory management. Eight cities, all African, are identified in this work as having water insecurity issues. These cities lack sufficient infrastructure and institutional complexity to capture and deliver adequate amounts of water for urban use. Together, these findings highlight the important interconnection between infrastructure investments and management techniques for urban areas with a limited or dwindling natural abundance of water. Addressing water security challenges in the future will require that more attention be placed not only on increasing water availability, but on developing the institutional support to manage captured water supplies.

Defining alternative rules in water and sanitation.

PubMed

Robert, J

1995-11-01

While the conventional water and sanitation package remains most prominent, alternatives exist to conventional waterworks and sanitation practices. Some alternate courses of action are considered. Promising an unprecedented availability of piped water, water development projects foster a pump-and-dump mentality even before they are completed. Often simply announcing the impending implementation of such projects encourages the intention among future beneficiaries to waste water resources. Alternatives to the domestic waste of water must be sought and implemented. Disestablishing water development, styles of alternative water technologies, decision-making and decision-makers, water policy scale, regenerating community access to sources, and water pricing are discussed.

Future Water Management in the South Platte River Basin: Impacts of Hydraulic Fracturing, Population, Agriculture, and Climate Change in a Semi-Arid Region.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, E. L.; Hogue, T. S.; Anderson, A. M.; Read, L.

2015-12-01

In semi-arid basins across the world, the gap between water supply and demand is growing due to climate change, population growth, and shifts in agriculture and unconventional energy development. Water conservation efforts among residential and industrial water users, recycling and reuse techniques and innovative regulatory frameworks for water management strive to mitigate this gap, however, the extent of these strategies are often difficult to quantify and not included in modeling water allocations. Decision support systems (DSS) are purposeful for supporting water managers in making informed decisions when competing demands create the need to optimize water allocation between sectors. One region of particular interest is the semi-arid region of the South Platte River basin in northeastern Colorado, where anthropogenic and climatic effects are expected to increase the gap between water supply and demand in the near future. Specifically, water use in the South Platte is impacted by several high-intensity activities, including unconventional energy development, i.e. hydraulic fracturing, and large withdrawals for agriculture; these demands are in addition to a projected population increase of 100% by 2050. The current work describes the development of a DSS for the South Platte River basin, using the Water Evaluation and Planning system software (WEAP) to explore scenarios of how variation in future water use in the energy, agriculture, and municipal sectors will impact water allocation decisions. Detailed data collected on oil and gas water use in the Niobrara shale play will be utilized to predict future sector use. We also employ downscaled climate projections for the region to quantify the potential range of water availability in the basin under each scenario, and observe whether or not, and to what extent, climate may impact management decisions at the basin level.

Past, present, and future of water data delivery from the U.S. Geological Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hirsch, Robert M.; Fisher, Gary T.

2014-01-01

We present an overview of national water databases managed by the U.S. Geological Survey, including surface-water, groundwater, water-quality, and water-use data. These are readily accessible to users through web interfaces and data services. Multiple perspectives of data are provided, including search and retrieval of real-time data and historical data, on-demand current conditions and alert services, data compilations, spatial representations, analytical products, and availability of data across multiple agencies.

Water availability change in central Belgium for the late 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabari, Hossein; Taye, Meron Teferi; Willems, Patrick

2015-08-01

We investigate the potential impact of climate change on water availability in central Belgium. Two water balance components being precipitation and potential evapotranspiration are initially projected for the late 21st century (2071-2100) based on 30 Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models relative to a baseline period of 1961-1990, assuming forcing by four representative concentration pathway emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). The future available water is then estimated as the difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration projections. The number of wet days and mean monthly precipitation for summer season is projected to decrease in most of the scenarios, while the projections show an increase in those variables for the winter months. Potential evapotranspiration is expected to increase during both winter and summer seasons. The results show a decrease in water availability for summer and an increase for winter, suggesting drier summers and wetter winters for the late 21st century in central Belgium.

Enhanced recharge rates and altered recharge sensitivity to climate variability through subsurface heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Andreas; Gleeson, Tom; Wada, Yoshihide; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-04-01

Karst aquifers in Europe are an important source of fresh water contributing up to half of the total drinking water supply in some countries. Karstic groundwater recharge is one of the most important components of the water balance of karst systems as it feeds the karst aquifers. Presently available large-scale hydrological models do not consider karst heterogeneity adequately. Projections of current and potential future groundwater recharge of Europe's karst aquifers are therefore unclear. In this study we compare simulations of present (1991-2010) and future (2080-2099) recharge using two different models to simulate groundwater recharge processes. One model includes karst processes (subsurface heterogeneity, lateral flow and concentrated recharge), while the other is based on the conceptual understanding of common hydrological systems (homogeneous subsurface, saturation excess overland flow). Both models are driven by the bias-corrected 5 GCMs of the ISI-MIP project (RCP8.5). To further assess sensitivity of groundwater recharge to climate variability, we calculate the elasticity of recharge rates to annual precipitation, temperature and average intensity of rainfall events, which is the median change of recharge that corresponds to the median change of these climate variables within the present and future time period, respectively. Our model comparison shows that karst regions over Europe have enhanced recharge rates with greater inter-annual variability compared to those with more homogenous subsurface properties. Furthermore, the heterogeneous representation shows stronger elasticity concerning climate variability than the homogeneous subsurface representation. This difference tends to increase towards the future. Our results suggest that water management in regions with heterogeneous subsurface can expect a higher water availability than estimated by most of the current large-scale simulations, while measures should be taken to prepare for increasingly variable groundwater recharge rates.

Multiple stressor effects on biological quality elements in the Ebro River: Present diagnosis and predicted responses.

PubMed

Herrero, Albert; Gutiérrez-Cánovas, Cayetano; Vigiak, Olga; Lutz, Stefanie; Kumar, Rohini; Gampe, David; Huber-García, Verena; Ludwig, Ralf; Batalla, Ramon; Sabater, Sergi

2018-07-15

Multiple abiotic stressors affect the ecological status of water bodies. The status of waterbodies in the Ebro catchment (NE Spain) is evaluated using the biological quality elements (BQEs) of diatoms, invertebrates and macrophytes. The multi-stressor influence on the three BQEs was evaluated using the monitoring dataset available from the catchment water authority. Nutrient concentrations, especially total phosphorus (TP), affected most of the analyzed BQEs, while changes in mean discharge, water temperature, or river morphology did not show significant influences. Linear statistical models were used to evaluate the change of water bodies' ecological status under different combinations of future socioeconomic and climate scenarios. Changes in land use, rainfall, water temperature, mean discharge, TP and nitrate concentrations were modeled according to the future scenarios. These revealed an evolution of the abiotic stressors that could lead to a general decrease in the ecosystem quality of water bodies within the Ebro catchment. This deterioration was especially evidenced on the diatoms and invertebrate biological indices, mainly because of the foreseen increase in TP concentrations. Water bodies located in the headwaters were seen as the most sensitive to future changes. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of Change in Irrigation Water Availability on Food Production in the Yellow River Basin under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Y. Y.; Tang, Q.

2014-12-01

Approximately 9 percent of China's population and 17 percent of its agricultural area are settled in the Yellow River Basins. Irrigation, which plays an important role in agricultural production, occupies the largest share of human consumptive water use in the basin. Given increasing water demands, the basin faces acute water scarcity. Previous studies have suggested that decrease in irrigation water availability under climate change might have an overall adverse impact on the food production of the basin. The timing and area that would face severe water stress are yet to be identified. We used a land surface hydrological model forced with the bias-corrected climatic variables from 5 climate models under 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to estimate total water availability in the sub-basins of the Yellow River basin. The future socioeconomic conditions, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), were used to estimate the water requirement in the nonagricultural water use sectors. The irrigation water availability was estimated from the total water availability and nonagricultural water use, and the irrigation water demands were estimated based on the current irrigation project efficiencies. The timing and area of irrigation water shortage were shown and the implication of change in irrigation water availability on food production was assessed. The results show that the sub-basins with high population density and gross domestic product (GDP) are likely to confront severe water stress and reduction in food production earlier because irrigation water was to be appropriated by the rapid increase in nonagricultural water use sectors. The study stresses the need for adaptive management of water to balance agriculture and nonagricultural demands in northern China.

Encouraging Consumption of Water in School and Child Care Settings: Access, Challenges, and Strategies for Improvement

PubMed Central

Hampton, Karla E.

2011-01-01

Children and adolescents are not consuming enough water, instead opting for sugar-sweetened beverages (sodas, sports and energy drinks, milks, coffees, and fruit-flavored drinks with added sugars), 100% fruit juice, and other beverages. Drinking sufficient amounts of water can lead to improved weight status, reduced dental caries, and improved cognition among children and adolescents. Because children spend most of their day at school and in child care, ensuring that safe, potable drinking water is available in these settings is a fundamental public health measure. We sought to identify challenges that limit access to drinking water; opportunities, including promising practices, to increase drinking water availability and consumption; and future research, policy efforts, and funding needed in this area. PMID:21680941

Many-objective robust decision making for water allocation under climate change.

PubMed

Yan, Dan; Ludwig, Fulco; Huang, He Qing; Werners, Saskia E

2017-12-31

Water allocation is facing profound challenges due to climate change uncertainties. To identify adaptive water allocation strategies that are robust to climate change uncertainties, a model framework combining many-objective robust decision making and biophysical modeling is developed for large rivers. The framework was applied to the Pearl River basin (PRB), China where sufficient flow to the delta is required to reduce saltwater intrusion in the dry season. Before identifying and assessing robust water allocation plans for the future, the performance of ten state-of-the-art MOEAs (multi-objective evolutionary algorithms) is evaluated for the water allocation problem in the PRB. The Borg multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (Borg MOEA), which is a self-adaptive optimization algorithm, has the best performance during the historical periods. Therefore it is selected to generate new water allocation plans for the future (2079-2099). This study shows that robust decision making using carefully selected MOEAs can help limit saltwater intrusion in the Pearl River Delta. However, the framework could perform poorly due to larger than expected climate change impacts on water availability. Results also show that subjective design choices from the researchers and/or water managers could potentially affect the ability of the model framework, and cause the most robust water allocation plans to fail under future climate change. Developing robust allocation plans in a river basin suffering from increasing water shortage requires the researchers and water managers to well characterize future climate change of the study regions and vulnerabilities of their tools. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Water-Constrained Electric Sector Capacity Expansion Modeling Under Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, S. M.; Macknick, J.; Miara, A.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Averyt, K.; Meldrum, J.; Corsi, F.; Prousevitch, A.; Rangwala, I.

2015-12-01

Over 80% of U.S. electricity generation uses a thermoelectric process, which requires significant quantities of water for power plant cooling. This water requirement exposes the electric sector to vulnerabilities related to shifts in water availability driven by climate change as well as reductions in power plant efficiencies. Electricity demand is also sensitive to climate change, which in most of the United States leads to warming temperatures that increase total cooling-degree days. The resulting demand increase is typically greater for peak demand periods. This work examines the sensitivity of the development and operations of the U.S. electric sector to the impacts of climate change using an electric sector capacity expansion model that endogenously represents seasonal and local water resource availability as well as climate impacts on water availability, electricity demand, and electricity system performance. Capacity expansion portfolios and water resource implications from 2010 to 2050 are shown at high spatial resolution under a series of climate scenarios. Results demonstrate the importance of water availability for future electric sector capacity planning and operations, especially under more extreme hotter and drier climate scenarios. In addition, region-specific changes in electricity demand and water resources require region-specific responses that depend on local renewable resource availability and electricity market conditions. Climate change and the associated impacts on water availability and temperature can affect the types of power plants that are built, their location, and their impact on regional water resources.

Combined use of neutron thermalization and electromagnetic sensing in assessing soil water dynamics

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Agriculture is by far the largest consumer of available fresh water, accounting for 70% of withdrawals worldwide. By meeting increased future demands for food and fiber, our needs will need to be met by improving the efficient use of both irrigation and precipitation for crop production. Field crop ...

The Future of Evapotranspiration: Global requirements for ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The fate of the terrestrial biosphere is highly uncertain given recent and projected changes in climate. This is especially acute for impacts associated with changes in drought frequency and intensity on the distribution and timing of water availability. The development of effective adaptation strat...

Evolution of monitoring for Giardia and Cryptosporidium in water.

PubMed

Efstratiou, Artemis; Ongerth, Jerry; Karanis, Panagiotis

2017-10-15

This review describes the evolution of monitoring methodology for Cryptosporidium and Giardia in water since the 1970's. Methods in current use for Giardia and Cryptosporidium in water are highlighted, though attention is given to all available published methods by country and continent. The review is intended to stimulate research leading to future improvements and further developments in monitoring methodology for Giardia, Cryptosporidium and other waterborne protozoan parasites in water. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bock, Andrew R.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Emmerich, Christopher; Talbert, Marian

2017-05-03

The U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal (https://my.usgs.gov/mows/) is a user-friendly interface that summarizes monthly historical and simulated future conditions for seven hydrologic and meteorological variables (actual evapotranspiration, potential evapotranspiration, precipitation, runoff, snow water equivalent, atmospheric temperature, and streamflow) at locations across the conterminous United States (CONUS).The estimates of these hydrologic and meteorological variables were derived using a Monthly Water Balance Model (MWBM), a modular system that simulates monthly estimates of components of the hydrologic cycle using monthly precipitation and atmospheric temperature inputs. Precipitation and atmospheric temperature from 222 climate datasets spanning historical conditions (1952 through 2005) and simulated future conditions (2020 through 2099) were summarized for hydrographic features and used to drive the MWBM for the CONUS. The MWBM input and output variables were organized into an open-access database. An Open Geospatial Consortium, Inc., Web Feature Service allows the querying and identification of hydrographic features across the CONUS. To connect the Web Feature Service to the open-access database, a user interface—the Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal—was developed to allow the dynamic generation of summary files and plots  based on plot type, geographic location, specific climate datasets, period of record, MWBM variable, and other options. Both the plots and the data files are made available to the user for download 

Using global Climate Impact Indicators to assess water resource availability in a Mediterranean mountain catchment: the Sierra Nevada study case (Spain) in the SWICCA platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

José Pérez-Palazón, María; Pimentel, Rafael; Sáenz de Rodrigáñez, Marta; Gulliver, Zacarias; José Polo, María

2017-04-01

Climate services provide water resource managements and users with science-based information on the likely impacts associated to the future climate scenarios. Mountainous areas are especially vulnerable to climate variations due to the expected changes in the snow regime, among others; in Mediterranean regions, this shift involves significant effects on the river flow regime and water resource availability and management. The Guadalfeo River Basin is a 1345 km2 mountainous, coastal catchment in southern Spain, ranging from the Mediterranean Sea coastline to the Sierra Nevada mountains to the north (up to 3450 m a.s.l.) within a 40-km distance. The climate variability adds complexity to this abrupt topography and heterogeneous area. The uncertainty associated to snow occurrence and persistence for the next decades poses a challenge for the current and future water resource uses in the area. The development of easy-to-use local climate indicators and derived decision-making variables is key to assess and face the economic impact of the potential changes. The SWICCA (Service for Water Indicators in Climate Change Adaptation) Platform (http://swicca.climate.copernicus.eu/) has been developed under the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and provides global climate and hydrology indicators on a Pan-European scale. Different case studies are included to assess the platform development and contents, and analyse the indicators' performance from a proof-of-concept approach that includes end-users feedbacks. The Guadalfeo River Basin is one of these case studies. This work presents the work developed so far to analyse and use the SWICCA Climate Impact Indicators (CIIs) related to river flow in this mountainous area, and the first set of local indicators specifically designed to assess selected end-users on the potential impact associated to different climate scenarios. Different CIIs were extracted from the SWICCA interface and tested against the local information available in the case study. The Essential Climate Variables used were precipitation and flow daily values, obtained at different spatial scales. The analysis led to the use of SWICCA-river flow on a catchment scale as the most suitable global CIIs in this area. Further treatment included local downscaling by means of transfer functions and a final relative anomaly correction. Three final end-users (clients) were identified within the water resource management framework: 1) mini hydropower facilities at the head areas, 2) urban supply at the southern area, and 3) water management decision makers (reservoir operation). From the corrected CIIs, local indicators were defined from the interaction with each client, to tailor water services easily and readily usable. Knowledge brokering from this interaction resulted in a first identification of a set of 4, 3 and 4 indicators for hydropower generation, urban users and water resource decision-makers, respectively, with different time scales. The projections of three future climate scenarios were assessed for each indicator and presented to each client. Local indicators are an efficient tool to assess the potential range of water allocation possibilities in this area on an annual and decadal basis, and get a deeper insight of the seasonal future potential regime of water resource availability. The results are good examples of key information for decision making in the future, and show how to derive local indicators with impact in the short and medium term planning in heterogeneous catchments in this region.

Human-water interactions in Colorado: Evaluating the impacts of population growth, energy development and dynamic industries on water resource management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogue, Terri; Walker, Ella; Read, Laura

2016-04-01

The gap between water supply and demand is growing in the western U.S. due to climate change, rapid population growth, intensive agricultural production, wide-spread energy development and changing industrial use. Water conservation efforts among residential and industrial water users, recycling and reuse techniques, and innovative regulatory frameworks strive to mitigate this gap, however, the extent of these management strategies are often difficult to quantify and are typically not included in prediction of future water allocations. Water use on the eastern slope in Colorado (Denver-Metro region) is impacted by high-intensity activities, including unconventional energy development, large withdrawals for agriculture, and increasing demand for recreational industries. These demands are in addition to a projected population increase of 100% by 2050 in the South Platte River basin, which encompasses the Denver-Metro region. The current presentation focuses on the quantification of regional sector water use utilzing a range of observations and technologies (including remote sensing) and integration into a regional decision support system. We explore scenarios of future water use in the energy, agriculture, and municipal/industrial sectors, and discuss the potential water allocation tradeoffs to various stakeholders. We also employ climate projections to quantify the potential range of water availability under various scenarios and observe the extent to which future climate may influence regional management decisions.

Climate Forecasts and Water Resource Management: Applications for a Developing Country

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, C.; Rogers, P.

2002-05-01

While the quantity of water on the planet earth is relatively constant, the demand for water is continuously increasing. Population growth leads to linear increases in water demand, and economic growth leads to further demand growth. Strzepek et al. calculate that with a United Nations mean population estimate of 8.5 billion people by 2025 and globally balanced economic growth, water use could increase by 70% over that time (Strzepek et al., 1995). For developing nations especially, supplying water for this growing demand requires the construction of new water supply infrastructure. The prospect of designing and constructing long life-span infrastructure is clouded by the uncertainty of future climate. The availability of future water resources is highly dependent on future climate. With realization of the nonstationarity of climate, responsible design emphasizes resiliency and robustness of water resource systems (IPCC, 1995; Gleick et al., 1999). Resilient systems feature multiple sources and complex transport and distribution systems, and so come at a high economic and environmental price. A less capital-intense alternative to creating resilient and robust water resource systems is the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Such forecasts provide adequate lead time and accuracy to allow water managers and water-based sectors such as agriculture or hydropower to optimize decisions for the expected water supply. This study will assess the use of seasonal climate forecasts from regional climate models as a method to improve water resource management in systems with limited water supply infrastructure

Climate change reduces water availability for agriculture by decreasing non-evaporative irrigation losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Keyvan; Adam, Jennifer C.; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Peters, R. Troy

2018-06-01

Irrigation efficiency plays an important role in agricultural productivity; it affects farm-scale water demand, and the partitioning of irrigation losses into evaporative and non-evaporative components. This partitioning determines return flow generation and thus affects water availability. Over the last two decades, hydrologic and agricultural research communities have significantly improved our understanding of the impacts of climate change on water availability and food productivity. However, the impacts of climate change on the efficiency of irrigation systems, particularly on the partitioning between evaporative and non-evaporative losses, have received little attention. In this study, we incorporated a process-based irrigation module into a coupled hydrologic/agricultural modeling framework (VIC-CropSyst). To understand how climate change may impact irrigation losses, we applied VIC-CropSyst over the Yakima River basin, an important agricultural region in Washington State, U.S. We compared the historical period of 1980-2010 to an ensemble of ten projections of climate for two future periods: 2030-2060 and 2060-2090. Results averaged over the watershed showed that a 9% increase in evaporative losses will be compensated by a reduction of non-evaporative losses. Therefore, overall changes in future efficiency are negligible (-0.4%) while the Evaporative Loss Ratio (ELR) (defined as the ratio of evaporative to non-evaporative irrigation losses) is enhanced by 10%. This higher ELR is associated with a reduction in return flows, thus negatively impacting downstream water availability. Results also indicate that the impact of climate change on irrigation losses depend on irrigation type and climate scenarios.

The inequality of water scarcity events: who is actually being affected?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldkamp, Ted I. E.; Wada, Yoshihide; Kummu, Matti; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Ward, Philip J.

2015-04-01

Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increased regional and global water scarcity problems. In the near future, projected changes in human water use and population growth - in combination with climate change - are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions and its associated impacts on our society. Whilst a wide range of studies have modelled past and future regional and global patterns of change in population or land area impacted by water scarcity conditions, less attention is paid on who is actually affected and how vulnerable this share of the population is to water scarcity conditions. The actual impact of water scarcity events, however, not only depends on the numbers being affected, but merely on how sensitive this population is to water scarcity conditions, how quick and efficient governments can deal with the problems induced by water scarcity, and how many (financial and infrastructural) resources are available to cope with water scarce conditions. Only few studies have investigated the above mentioned interactions between societal composition and water scarcity conditions (e.g. by means of the social water scarcity index and the water poverty index) and, up to our knowledge, a comprehensive global analysis including different water scarcity indicators and multiple climate and socioeconomic scenarios is missing. To address this issue, we assess in this contribution the adaptive capacity of a society to water scarcity conditions, evaluate how this may be driven by different societal factors, and discuss how enhanced knowledge on this topic could be of interest for water managers in their design of adaptation strategies coping with water scarcity events. For that purpose, we couple spatial information on water scarcity conditions with different components from, among others, the Human Development Index and the Worldwide Governance Indicators, such as: the share of the population with an income below the poverty line; mean year of schooling; the ratio between urban and rural population; import and export rates; political stability; corruption; and government effectiveness. Moreover, we also take into account the accessibility of fresh water bodies and markets. Underlying water scarcity conditions were estimated as follows: (1) yearly water availability was calculated at 0.5° x 0.5° over the period 1971-2099 using daily discharge and run-off fields from the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, forced with different climate change scenarios; (2) statistical methods were applied to fit probability density functions to time-series of yearly water availability and to estimate water availability for a number of return periods covering the current, 2030, and 2050 conditions; (3) water availability results were assembled with scenario estimates of water consumption and population density which resulted in a series of water scarcity estimates.

Topographic, edaphic, and vegetative controls on plant-available water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dymond, Salli F.; Bradford, John B.; Bolstad, Paul V.; Kolka, Randall K.; Sebestyen, Stephen D.; DeSutter, Thomas S.

2017-01-01

Soil moisture varies within landscapes in response to vegetative, physiographic, and climatic drivers, which makes quantifying soil moisture over time and space difficult. Nevertheless, understanding soil moisture dynamics for different ecosystems is critical, as the amount of water in a soil determines a myriad ecosystem services and processes such as net primary productivity, runoff, microbial decomposition, and soil fertility. We investigated the patterns and variability in in situ soil moisture measurements converted to plant-available water across time and space under different vegetative cover types and topographic positions at the Marcell Experimental Forest (Minnesota, USA). From 0 – 228.6 cm soil depth, plant-available water was significantly higher under the hardwoods (12%), followed by the aspen (8%) and red pine (5%) cover types. Across the same soil depth, toeslopes were wetter (mean plant-available water = 10%) than ridges and backslopes (mean plant-available water was 8%), although these differences were not statistically significant (p < 0.05). Using a mixed model of fixed and random effects, we found that cover type, soil texture, and time were related to plant-available water and that topography was not significantly related to plant-available water within this low-relief landscape. Additionally, during the three-year monitoring period, red pine and quaking aspen sites experienced plant-available water levels that may be considered limiting to plant growth and function. Given that increasing temperatures and more erratic precipitation patterns associated with climate change may result in decreased soil moisture in this region, these species may be sensitive and vulnerable to future shifts in climate.

Balancing water resources development and environmental sustainability in Africa: a review of recent research findings and applications.

PubMed

McClain, Michael E

2013-09-01

Sustainable development in Africa is dependent on increasing use of the continent's water resources without significantly degrading ecosystem services that are also fundamental to human wellbeing. This is particularly challenging in Africa because of high spatial and temporal variability in the availability of water resources and limited amounts of total water availability across expansive semi-arid portions of the continent. The challenge is compounded by ambitious targets for increased water use and a rush of international funding to finance development activities. Balancing development with environmental sustainability requires (i) understanding the boundary conditions imposed by the continent's climate and hydrology today and into the future, (ii) estimating the magnitude and spatial distribution of water use needed to meet development goals, and (iii) understanding the environmental water requirements of affected ecosystems, their current status and potential consequences of increased water use. This article reviews recent advancements in each of these topics and highlights innovative approaches and tools available to support sustainable development. While much remains to be learned, scientific understanding and technology should not be viewed as impediments to sustainable development on the continent.

Spatiotemporal Assessment of Groundwater Resources in the South Platte Basin, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruybal, C. J.; McCray, J. E.; Hogue, T. S.

2015-12-01

The South Platte Basin is one of the most economically diverse and fastest growing basins in Colorado. Strong competition for water resources in an over-appropriated system brings challenges to meeting future water demands. Balancing the conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater from the South Platte alluvial aquifer and the Denver Basin aquifer system is critical for meeting future demands. Over the past decade, energy development in the basin has added to the competition for water resources, highlighting the need to advance our understanding of the availability and sustainability of groundwater resources. Current work includes evaluating groundwater storage changes and recharge regimes throughout the South Platte Basin under competing uses, e.g. agriculture, oil and gas, urban, recreational, and environmental. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellites in conjunction with existing groundwater data is used to evaluate spatiotemporal variability in groundwater storage and identify areas of high water stress. Spatiotemporal data will also be utilized to develop a high resolution groundwater model of the region. Results will ultimately help stakeholders in the South Platte Basin better understand groundwater resource challenges and contribute to Colorado's strategic future water planning.

Water and nitrogen availability co-control ecosystem CO2 exchange in a semiarid temperate steppe.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiaolin; Tan, Yulian; Li, Ang; Ren, Tingting; Chen, Shiping; Wang, Lixin; Huang, Jianhui

2015-10-23

Both water and nitrogen (N) availability have significant effects on ecosystem CO2 exchange (ECE), which includes net ecosystem productivity (NEP), ecosystem respiration (ER) and gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP). How water and N availability influence ECE in arid and semiarid grasslands is still uncertain. A manipulative experiment with additions of rainfall, snow and N was conducted to test their effects on ECE in a semiarid temperate steppe of northern China for three consecutive years with contrasting natural precipitation. ECE increased with annual precipitation but approached peak values at different precipitation amount. Water addition, especially summer water addition, had significantly positive effects on ECE in years when the natural precipitation was normal or below normal, but showed trivial effect on GEP when the natural precipitation was above normal as effects on ER and NEP offset one another. Nitrogen addition exerted non-significant or negative effects on ECE when precipitation was low but switched to a positive effect when precipitation was high, indicating N effect triggered by water availability. Our results indicate that both water and N availability control ECE and the effects of future precipitation changes and increasing N deposition will depend on how they can change collaboratively in this semiarid steppe ecosystem.

Backcountry water quality in Grand Teton National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tippets, N.; O'Ney, S.; Farag, A.M.

2001-01-01

Over the past several decades, visitor use of the backcountry areas of Grand Teton National Park (Wyoming) has dramatically increased. The water quality of clear, sparkling mountain streams and lakes is being impacted by concentrated recreational use where, because of the potential for future wilderness designation, no restroom facilities are available. Park officials are concerned about the impacts that these activities have on water quality, and that the consumption of untreated water from these areas may pose a hazard to human health.

Production of long-term global water vapor and liquid water data set using ultra-fast methods to assimilate multi-satellite and radiosonde observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vonderhaar, T. H.; Reinke, Donald L.; Randel, David L.; Stephens, Graeme L.; Combs, Cynthia L.; Greenwald, Thomas J.; Ringerud, Mark A.; Wittmeyer, Ian L.

1993-01-01

During the next decade, many programs and experiments under the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) will utilize present day and future data sets to improve our understanding of the role of moisture in climate, and its interaction with other variables such as clouds and radiation. An important element of GEWEX will be the GEWEX Water Vapor Project (GVaP), which will eventually initiate a routine, real-time assimilation of the highest quality, global water vapor data sets including information gained from future data collection systems, both ground and space based. The comprehensive global water vapor data set being produced by METSAT Inc. uses a combination of ground-based radiosonde data, and infrared and microwave satellite retrievals. This data is needed to provide the desired foundation from which future GEWEX-related research, such as GVaP, can build. The first year of this project was designed to use a combination of the best available atmospheric moisture data including: radiosonde (balloon/acft/rocket), HIRS/MSU (TOVS) retrievals, and SSM/I retrievals, to produce a one-year, global, high resolution data set of integrated column water vapor (precipitable water) with a horizontal resolution of 1 degree, and a temporal resolution of one day. The time period of this pilot product was to be det3ermined by the availability of all the input data sets. January 1988 through December 1988 were selected. In addition, a sample of vertically integrated liquid water content (LWC) was to be produced with the same temporal and spatial parameters. This sample was to be produced over ocean areas only. Three main steps are followed to produce a merged water vapor and liquid water product. Input data from Radiosondes, TOVS, and SSMI/I is quality checked in steps one and two. Processing is done in step two to generate individual total column water vapor and liquid water data sets. The third step, and final processing task, involves merging the individual output products to produce the integrated water vapor product. A final quality control is applied to the merged data sets.

Assessment of Long-term Irrigation Water Availability over Highly Managed and Economically Important Agricultural Region of the Columbia River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barik, M. G.; Rushi, B. R.; Malek, K.; Rajagopalan, K.; Hall, S.; Kruger, C. E.; Brady, M.; Stockle, C.; Adam, J. C.

2016-12-01

Agriculture contributes about 12% in Washington State's economy. Water diverted from the Columbia River Basin (CRB) is the major source of irrigation water in this region. Although agriculture accounts for 80% of this state's total water withdrawal, this sector is the first to be curtailed (i.e., irrigators do not receive their full water right allocation) while there is a water shortage. This snow dominated region is already threatened by climate change. A robust regional-scale analysis of water supply, demand, unmet crop water requirements and associated impacts is critical to develop sustainable water resources plans under climate change. This study uses a dynamically-coupled hydrologic and cropping systems model, VIC-CropSyst, a reservoir management model, ColSim, and a water curtailment model to simulate changes in surface water irrigation demand projecting 30 years in the future in response to various climate, management and economic scenarios. Five downscaled climate scenarios for each of the IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (rcp4.5) and 8.5 (rcp8.5) are selected in a way that they capture the projected spread of temperature and precipitation changes for the area. Results show an increase in total water availability across the CRB. Water availability is predicted to shift earlier in the season due to warming-induced snowpack reductions. Agricultural water demand is projected to decrease by approximately 5.0% (±0.7%) and 6.9% (±0.7%) respectively across the entire CRB and the Washington portion of the CRB by 2035. Irrigation demand is expected to shift earlier in the season along with water availability. This shift in demand may cause higher amount of early season irrigation water curtailment in some highly managed watersheds of the CRB in Washington State. This reduction and shift in demand is due to a warmer climate and an elevated atmospheric CO2 level which are leading to a shorter but early starting growing season. This study does not consider any expansion of irrigated crop lands for future, or any adaption measures such as double cropping, switching to slow maturing crop varieties. Curtailment increasing in the early season and declining in the late season may require adjustments to reservoir operations unless proper adaptive measures are taken.

Approaches to Identifying the Emerging Innovative Water Technology Industry in the United States

PubMed Central

WOOD, ALLISON R.; HARTEN, TERESA; GUTIERREZ, SALLY C.

2018-01-01

Clean water is vital to sustaining our natural environment, human health, and our economy. As infrastructure continues to deteriorate and water resources become increasingly threatened, new technologies will be needed to ensure safe and sustainable water in the future. Though the US water industry accounts for approximately 1% gross domestic product and regional “clusters” for water technology exist throughout the country, this emerging industry has not been captured by recent studies. As use of the term “cluster” becomes more prevalent, regional mapping efforts have revealed international differences in definition yet showcase this industry’s economic impact. In reality, institutional processes may inhibit altering industry coding to better describe water technology. Forgoing the benefits of national economic tracking, alternative data sets are available, which may support new ways of identifying these clusters. This work provides cluster definitions; summarizes current approaches to identifying industry activity using data, interviews, and literature; and sets a foundation for future research. PMID:29937546

The effects of country-level population policy for enhancing adaptation to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunasekara, N. K.; Kazama, S.; Yamazaki, D.; Oki, T.

2013-11-01

The effectiveness of population policy in reducing the combined impacts of population change and climate change on water resources is explored. One no-policy scenario and two scenarios with population policy assumptions are employed in combination with water availability under the SRES scenarios A1b, B1 and A2 for the impact analysis. The population data used are from the World Bank. The river discharges per grid of horizontal resolution 0.5° are obtained from the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) of the University of Tokyo, Japan. Unlike the population scenarios utilized in the SRES emission scenarios and the newest representative concentration pathways, the scenarios employed in this research are based, even after 2050, on country-level rather than regional-level growth assumptions. Our analysis implies that the heterogeneous pattern of population changes across the world is the dominant driver of water stress, irrespective of future greenhouse gas emissions, with highest impacts occurring in the already water-stressed low latitudes. In 2100, Africa, Middle East and parts of Asia are under extreme water stress under all scenarios. The sensitivity analysis reveals that a small reduction in populations over the region could relieve a large number of people from high water stress, while a further increase in population from the assumed levels (SC1) might not increase the number of people under high water stress considerably. Most of the population increase towards 2100 occurs in the already water-stressed lower latitudes. Therefore, population reduction policies are recommended for this region as a method of adaptation to the future water stress conditions. Population reduction policies will facilitate more control over their future development pathways, even if these countries were not able to contribute significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission cuts due to economic constraints. However, for the European region, the population living in water-stressed regions is almost 20 times lower than that in the lower latitudes. For countries with high population momentum, the population policy scenario with fertility-reduction assumptions gained a maximum of 6.1 times the water availability in Niger and 5.3 times that in Uganda compared with the no-policy scenario. Most of these countries are in sub-Saharan Africa. These countries represent 24.5% of the global population in the no-policy scenario, and the scenario with fertility-reduction assumptions reduces it to 8.7% by 2100. This scenario is also effective in reducing the area under extreme water stress in these countries. However, the policy scenario with assumptions of population stabilization at the replacement fertility rate increases the water stress in high-latitude countries. Nevertheless, the impact is low due to the high per capita water availability in the region. This research is expected to widen the understanding of the combined impacts of climate change in the future and of the strategies needed to enhance the space for adaptation.

Implications of changing water cycle for the performance and yield characteristics of the multi-purpose Beas Reservoir in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adeloye, A. J.; Ojha, C. S.; Soundharajan, B.; Remesan, R.

2013-12-01

There is considerable change in both the spatial and temporal patterns of monsoon rainfall in India, with implications for water resources availability and security. 'Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on India Agriculture' (MICCI) is one of five on-going scientific efforts being sponsored as part of the UK-NERC/India-MOES Changing Water Cycle (South Asia) initiative to further the understanding of the problem and proffer solutions that are robust and effective. This paper focuses on assessing the implications of projected climate change on the yield and performance characteristics of the Pong Reservoir on the Beas River, Himachal Pradesh, India. The Pong serves both hydropower and irrigation needs and is therefore strategic for the socio-economic well-being of the region as well as sustaining the livelihoods of millions of farmers that rely on it for irrigation. Simulated baseline and climate-change perturbed hydro-climate scenarios developed as part of a companion Work Package of MICCI formed the basis of the analysis. For both of these scenarios, reservoir analyses were carried out using the Sequent Peak Algorithm (SPA) and Pong's existing level of releases to derive rule curves for the reservoir. These rule curves then formed the basis of further reservoir behaviour simulations in WEAP and the resulting performance of the reservoir was summarised in terms of reliability, resilience, vulnerability and sustainability. The whole exercise was implemented within a Monte Carlo framework for the benefit of characterising the variability in the assessments. The results show that the rule curves developed using future hydro-climate are significantly changed from the baseline in that higher storages will be required to be maintained in the Pong in the future to achieve reliable performance. As far as the overall performance of the reservoir is concerned, future reliability (both time-based and volume-based) is not significantly different from the baseline, provided the future simulations adopt the future rule curves. This is, however, not the case with the resilience, with the future hydro-climate resulting in a less resilient system when compared with the baseline. The resilience is the ability of the system to recover from a hydrological failure; consequently, lower resilience for the future systems is an indication that longer, continuous failure periods are likely with implications for the two purposes of the reservoir. For example, extended periods of water scarcity that may result from a low resilient system will mean that crops are likely to experience longer periods of water stress with implications for crop yields. In such situations, better operational practices that manage the available water through hedging and irrigation water scheduling will be required. Other interventions may include the introduction of water from other sources, e.g. groundwater.

Future irrigation expansion outweigh groundwater recharge gains from climate change in semi-arid India.

PubMed

Sishodia, Rajendra P; Shukla, Sanjay; Wani, Suhas P; Graham, Wendy D; Jones, James W

2018-09-01

Simultaneous effects of future climate and irrigation intensification on surface and groundwater systems are not well understood. Efforts are needed to understand the future groundwater availability and associated surface flows under business-as-usual management to formulate policy changes to improve water sustainability. We combine measurements with integrated modeling (MIKE SHE/MIKE11) to evaluate the effects of future climate (2040-2069), with and without irrigation expansion, on water levels and flows in an agricultural watershed in low-storage crystalline aquifer region of south India. Demand and supply management changes, including improved efficiency of irrigation water as well as energy uses, were evaluated. Increased future rainfall (7-43%, from 5 Global Climate Models) with no further expansion of irrigation wells increased the groundwater recharge (10-55%); however, most of the recharge moved out of watershed as increased baseflow (17-154%) with a small increase in net recharge (+0.2mm/year). When increased rainfall was considered with projected increase in irrigation withdrawals, both hydrologic extremes of well drying and flooding were predicted. A 100-year flow event was predicted to be a 5-year event in the future. If irrigation expansion follows the historical trends, earlier and more frequent well drying, a source of farmers' distress in India, was predicted to worsen in the future despite the recharge gains from increased rainfall. Storage and use of excess flows, improved irrigation efficiency with flood to drip conversion in 25% of irrigated area, and reduced energy subsidy (free electricity for 3.5h compared to 7h/day; $1 billion savings) provided sufficient water savings to support future expansion in irrigated areas while mitigating well drying as well as flooding. Reductions in energy subsidy to fund the implementation of economically desirable (high benefit-cost ratio) demand (drip irrigation) and supply (water capture and storage) management was recommended to achieve a sustainable food-water-energy nexus in semi-arid regions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adaptation responses to increasing drought frequency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loch, A. J.; Adamson, D. C.; Schwabe, K.

2016-12-01

Using state contingent analysis we discuss how and why irrigators adapt to alternative water supply signals. This analysis approach helps to illustrate how and why producers currently use state-general and state-allocable inputs to adapt and respond to known and possible future climatic alternative natures. Focusing on the timing of water allocations, we explore inherent differences in the demand for water by two key irrigation sectors: annual and perennial producers which in Australia have allowed a significant degree of risk-minimisation during droughts. In the absence of land constraints, producers also had a capacity to respond to positive state outcomes and achieve super-normal profits. In the future, however, the probability of positive state outcomes is uncertain; production systems may need to adapt to minimise losses and/or achieve positive returns under altered water supply conditions that may arise as a consequence of more frequent drought states. As such, producers must assess whether altering current input/output choice sets in response to possible future climate states will enhance their long-run competitive advantage for both expected new normal and extreme water supply outcomes. Further, policy supporting agricultural sector climate change resilience must avoid poorly-designed strategies that increase producer vulnerability in the face of drought. Our analysis explores the reliability of alternative water property right bundles and how reduced allocations across time influence alternative responses by producers. We then extend our analysis to explore how management strategies could adapt to two possible future drier state types: i) where an average reduction in water supply is experienced; and ii) where the frequency of droughts increase. The combination of these findings are subsequently used to discuss the role water reform policy has to deal with current and future climate scenarios. We argue current policy strategies could drive producers to more homogeneous production systems over time, which ultimately entail risky adaptation options under future water supply availability or increased drought frequency scenarios. Lastly, our analysis has shown the flexibility of applying SCA toward examining uncertainty surrounding future states of nature under climate change.

The world's road to water scarcity: shortage and stress in the 20th century and pathways towards sustainability.

PubMed

Kummu, M; Guillaume, J H A; de Moel, H; Eisner, S; Flörke, M; Porkka, M; Siebert, S; Veldkamp, T I E; Ward, P J

2016-12-09

Water scarcity is a rapidly growing concern around the globe, but little is known about how it has developed over time. This study provides a first assessment of continuous sub-national trajectories of blue water consumption, renewable freshwater availability, and water scarcity for the entire 20 th century. Water scarcity is analysed using the fundamental concepts of shortage (impacts due to low availability per capita) and stress (impacts due to high consumption relative to availability) which indicate difficulties in satisfying the needs of a population and overuse of resources respectively. While water consumption increased fourfold within the study period, the population under water scarcity increased from 0.24 billion (14% of global population) in the 1900s to 3.8 billion (58%) in the 2000s. Nearly all sub-national trajectories show an increasing trend in water scarcity. The concept of scarcity trajectory archetypes and shapes is introduced to characterize the historical development of water scarcity and suggest measures for alleviating water scarcity and increasing sustainability. Linking the scarcity trajectories to other datasets may help further deepen understanding of how trajectories relate to historical and future drivers, and hence help tackle these evolving challenges.

The world’s road to water scarcity: shortage and stress in the 20th century and pathways towards sustainability

PubMed Central

Kummu, M.; Guillaume, J. H. A.; de Moel, H.; Eisner, S.; Flörke, M.; Porkka, M.; Siebert, S.; Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Ward, P. J.

2016-01-01

Water scarcity is a rapidly growing concern around the globe, but little is known about how it has developed over time. This study provides a first assessment of continuous sub-national trajectories of blue water consumption, renewable freshwater availability, and water scarcity for the entire 20th century. Water scarcity is analysed using the fundamental concepts of shortage (impacts due to low availability per capita) and stress (impacts due to high consumption relative to availability) which indicate difficulties in satisfying the needs of a population and overuse of resources respectively. While water consumption increased fourfold within the study period, the population under water scarcity increased from 0.24 billion (14% of global population) in the 1900s to 3.8 billion (58%) in the 2000s. Nearly all sub-national trajectories show an increasing trend in water scarcity. The concept of scarcity trajectory archetypes and shapes is introduced to characterize the historical development of water scarcity and suggest measures for alleviating water scarcity and increasing sustainability. Linking the scarcity trajectories to other datasets may help further deepen understanding of how trajectories relate to historical and future drivers, and hence help tackle these evolving challenges. PMID:27934888

Development and Performance of Alternative Electricity Sector Pathways Subject to Multiple Climate and Water Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newmark, R. L.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Miara, A.; Cohen, S.; Macknick, J.; Sun, Y.; Corsi, F.; Fekete, B. M.; Tidwell, V. C.

2017-12-01

Climate change impacts on air temperatures and water availability have the potential to alter future electricity sector investment decisions as well as the reliability and performance of the power sector. Different electricity sector configurations are more or less vulnerable to climate-induced changes. For example, once-through cooled thermal facilities are the most cost-effective and efficient technologies under cooler and wetter conditions, but can be substantially affected by and vulnerable to warmer and drier conditions. Non-thermal renewable technologies, such as PV and wind, are essentially "drought-proof" but have other integration and reliability challenges. Prior efforts have explored the impacts of climate change on electric sector development for a limited set of climate and electricity scenarios. Here, we provide a comprehensive suite of scenarios that evaluate how different electricity sector pathways could be affected by a range of climate and water resource conditions. We use four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios under five global circulation models (GCM) as climate drivers to a Water Balance Model (WBM), to provide twenty separate future climate-water conditions. These climate-water conditions influence electricity sector development from present day to 2050 as determined using the Regional Energy Deployment Systems (ReEDS) model. Four unique electricity sector pathways will be considered, including business-as-usual, carbon cap, high renewable energy technology costs, and coal reliance scenarios. The combination of climate-water and electricity sector pathway scenarios leads to 80 potential future cases resulting in different national and regional electricity infrastructure configurations. The vulnerability of these configurations in relation to climate change (including in-stream thermal pollution impacts and environmental regulations) is evaluated using the Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution (TP2M) model, providing quantitative estimates of the power sector's ability to meet loads, given changes in air temperature, water temperature, and water availability.

A summary view of water supply and demand in the San Francisco Bay Region, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rantz, Saul E.

1972-01-01

This report presents a summary view of the water-supply situation in the nine counties that comprise the San Francisco Bay region, California, and thereby provides water data, based on 1970 conditions, that are needed for regional planning. For the purpose of this study the nine-county region has been divided into 15 subregions on the basis of hydrologic and economic considerations. Firm water supply is tabulated for each subregion by source--ground water, surface water, and imported water. Water demand in 1970 is tabulated for each subregion by type of use or demand--public supply, rural self-supply, irrigation, self-supplied industrial water and thermoelectric power generation. The San Francisco Bay region is dependent to a large degree on imported water. Under 1970 conditions of development, the firm water supply is 2.2 million acre-feet per year; of that quantity, almost 1 million acre-feet per year is imported water. The water demand in 1970 was 1.9 million acre-feet, about half of which was consumed. Under 1970 conditions of water development and use, a series of dry years would probably necessitate some curtailment of irrigation activities in four of the subregions, where the bulk of the demands i for irrigation water. Under those same conditions there is generally ample water for municipal and industrial use throughout the region, except in eastern Marin County where the firm municipal supple does not exceed the 1970 demand for municipal and industrial water. Although the firm water supply of the San Francisco Bay region, including imported water, is generally adequate to meet present needs, supplemental supply will be required to meet increased demand in the future. The expansion of existing surface-water facilities and the construction of new surface-water projects, now considered feasible, could provide a combined firm supplemental yield of slightly more than 1 million acre-feet per year, almost three-fourths of which would be available for import by those subregions that might experience a water deficient in the future. However, any supplemental water that might be developed by such alternative methods as desalination of brackish or salt water, weather modification, and various conservation measure, will correspondingly reduce requirement for supplemental water from the more conventional sources. The aspect of water quality is not discussed in this paper. Because of the present availability of imported water of good or acceptable quality, water quality, as it affects the supply, is not a serious problem at this time, except perhaps in local areas adjacent to San Francisco Bay and in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. In those areas ground water has been degraded by salinity intrusion. Although the prediction of future trends in population, land use, and water demand is beyond the scope of this report, there is not doubt that vigilance and careful planning will be required to prevent serious future deterioration of the quality of the water supply.

China's water, energy and food nexus - an assessment of the sustainability of the "3 Red Lines" water policies in the Haihe Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Ying; Allwood, Julian; Richards, Keith

2016-04-01

Population growth and economic development continue to put increasing pressures on China's limited resources which are further exacerbated by the country's substantial regional variations in both natural and socioeconomic conditions. China's pursuit of water, energy and food security faces trade-offs and tensions and the Haihe Basin exemplifies these issues. The river basin contains the capital region of Beijing, Hebei and Tianjin which are already experiencing stress and shortfalls of water resources as a result of intense competition for limited resources. To tackle water scarcity and promote more sustainable use of water, the government has implemented national and regional "3 Red Lines" water policies but they are not integrated with energy and food policies. The aim of this analysis is to assess the sustainability of the regional "3 Red Lines" water targets and their compatibility with energy and food security. This study uses a spatially-explicit, integrated resource model which integrates a hydrological model (GWAVA) with energy and food sub-models in order to analyse current and future resource availability and demand. To assess resource futures, different demand and supply scenarios were analysed up to 2030. Results are visualised as maps and connected Sankey diagrams and outputs are compared with the "3 Red Lines" water targets as well as against indicators related to land and energy policies. The results show that under a business-as-usual scenario, total water demands for Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are unlikely to comply with future water targets. Reducing water use in the industry and agriculture sectors will be critical in this water-scarce region and whilst efficiency improvements are important, technology choices appear to make the most significant impact e.g. irrigation method for agriculture and cooling technology for power generation. However, both these water saving-measures have trade-offs in energy consumption. Proposed water saving plans of changing the cropping system to grow less wheat could also significantly reduce the demand for water but has trade-offs in maintaining national food security. Given the region's limited water availability, growing demands from competing sectors as well as groundwater use restrictions, future supply will become more reliant on other sources i.e. water transfer, desalination and recycled water which are all power intensive. The approach used in this study enables the identification of critical trade-offs between resource security measures and policies. This would allow decision makers to visualise and better understand the inter-dependencies between resources and not be blindsided by unintended consequences in the pursuit of energy, water and food security.

Pathways to sustainable intensification through crop water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDonald, Graham K.; D'Odorico, Paolo; Seekell, David A.

2016-09-01

How much could farm water management interventions increase global crop production? This is the central question posed in a global modelling study by Jägermeyr et al (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 025002). They define the biophysical realm of possibility for future gains in crop production related to agricultural water practices—enhancing water availability to crops and expanding irrigation by reducing non-productive water consumption. The findings of Jägermeyr et al offer crucial insight on the potential for crop water management to sustainably intensify agriculture, but they also provide a benchmark to consider the broader role of sustainable intensification targets in the global food system. Here, we reflect on how the global crop water management simulations of Jägermeyr et al could interact with: (1) farm size at more local scales, (2) downstream water users at the river basin scale, as well as (3) food trade and (4) demand-side food system strategies at the global scale. Incorporating such cross-scale linkages in future research could highlight the diverse pathways needed to harness the potential of farm-level crop water management for a more productive and sustainable global food system.

Water Resources Availability in Kabul, Afghanistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akbari, A. M.; Chornack, M. P.; Coplen, T. B.; Emerson, D. G.; Litke, D. W.; Mack, T. J.; Plummer, N.; Verdin, J. P.; Verstraeten, I. M.

2008-12-01

The availability of water resources is vital to the rebuilding of Kabul, Afghanistan. In recent years, droughts and increased water use for drinking water and agriculture have resulted in widespread drying of wells. Increasing numbers of returning refugees, rapid population growth, and potential climate change have led to heightened concerns for future water availability. The U.S. Geological Survey, with support from the U.S. Agency for International Development, began collaboration with the Afghanistan Geological Survey and Ministry of Energy and Water on water-resource investigations in the Kabul Basin in 2004. This has led to the compilation of historic and recent water- resources data, creation of monitoring networks, analyses of geologic, geophysical, and remotely sensed data. The study presented herein provides an assessment of ground-water availability through the use of multidisciplinary hydrogeologic data analysis. Data elements include population density, climate, snowpack, geology, mineralogy, surface water, ground water, water quality, isotopic information, and water use. Data were integrated through the use of conceptual ground-water-flow model analysis and provide information necessary to make improved water-resource planning and management decisions in the Kabul Basin. Ground water is currently obtained from a shallow, less than 100-m thick, highly productive aquifer. CFC, tritium, and stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopic analyses indicate that most water in the shallow aquifer appears to be recharged post 1970 by snowmelt-supplied river leakage and secondarily by late winter precipitation. Analyses indicate that increasing withdrawals are likely to result in declining water levels and may cause more than 50 percent of shallow supply wells to become dry or inoperative particularly in urbanized areas. The water quality in the shallow aquifer is deteriorated in urban areas by poor sanitation and water availability concerns may be compounded by poor well construction practices and little planning. By 2050, the available water resources in the Kabul Basin may be reduced as a result of Central Asian climate changes. Increasing air temperatures associated with climate change are likely to lead to a decreasing snowpack and an earlier growing season, resulting in less recharge from river leakage. As a result, more than 60 percent of existing supply wells may become dry or inoperative. The impacts of climate change would likely be greatest in the agricultural regions in the western areas of the basin. Water resources in the in northern areas of the basin may meet future water needs. However, in other areas of the basin, particularly the more urbanized southern areas adjacent to and including the city of Kabul, water resources may be stressed. Ground water in deep aquifers, more than 100 m below land surface, is presently unused. Conceptual ground-water-flow simulations indicate that ground water in deep aquifers may be thousands of years old. The deep aquifer may sustain limited increases in municipal water use, but may not support increased agricultural use which is much greater than municipal use. However, the hydraulic feasibility and quality of deep ground-water extractions are not well known and are being investigated.

The science, information, and engineering needed to manage water availability and quality in 2050: Chapter 23

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hirsch, Robert M.

2012-01-01

This chapter explores four water resources issues: 1) hydrologic variability, hazards, water supply and ecosystem preservation; 2) urban landscape design; 3) non-point source water quality, and 4) climate change, resiliency, and nonstationarity. It also considers what science, technology, and engineering practice may be needed in the coming decades to sustain water supplies and ecosystems in the face of increasing stresses from a growing demand for water. Dealing with these four water resource issues in the highly uncertain future would will demand predictive models that are rooted in real-world data. In a non-stationary world, continuity of observations is crucial. All watersheds are influenced by human actions through changes in land use, water use, and climate. The focus of water planning and management between today and 2050 will depend more than ever on collection and analysis of long-term data to learn about the evolving state of the system, understanding ecosystem processes in the water and on the landscape, and finding innovative ways to manage water as a shared resource. This includes sharing water with our neighbors on the landscape, sharing with the other species that depend on water, and sharing with future generations.

Climate change adaptation and Integrated Water Resource Management in the water sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, Fulco; van Slobbe, Erik; Cofino, Wim

2014-10-01

Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) was introduced in 1980s to better optimise water uses between different water demanding sectors. However, since it was introduced water systems have become more complicated due to changes in the global water cycle as a result of climate change. The realization that climate change will have a significant impact on water availability and flood risks has driven research and policy making on adaptation. This paper discusses the main similarities and differences between climate change adaptation and IWRM. The main difference between the two is the focus on current and historic issues of IWRM compared to the (long-term) future focus of adaptation. One of the main problems of implementing climate change adaptation is the large uncertainties in future projections. Two completely different approaches to adaptation have been developed in response to these large uncertainties. A top-down approach based on large scale biophysical impacts analyses focussing on quantifying and minimizing uncertainty by using a large range of scenarios and different climate and impact models. The main problem with this approach is the propagation of uncertainties within the modelling chain. The opposite is the bottom up approach which basically ignores uncertainty. It focusses on reducing vulnerabilities, often at local scale, by developing resilient water systems. Both these approaches however are unsuitable for integrating into water management. The bottom up approach focuses too much on socio-economic vulnerability and too little on developing (technical) solutions. The top-down approach often results in an “explosion” of uncertainty and therefore complicates decision making. A more promising direction of adaptation would be a risk based approach. Future research should further develop and test an approach which starts with developing adaptation strategies based on current and future risks. These strategies should then be evaluated using a range of future scenarios in order to develop robust adaptation measures and strategies.

Arctic lake physical processes and regimes with implications for winter water availability and management in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska.

PubMed

Jones, Benjamin M; Arp, Christopher D; Hinkel, Kenneth M; Beck, Richard A; Schmutz, Joel A; Winston, Barry

2009-06-01

Lakes are dominant landforms in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPRA) as well as important social and ecological resources. Of recent importance is the management of these freshwater ecosystems because lakes deeper than maximum ice thickness provide an important and often sole source of liquid water for aquatic biota, villages, and industry during winter. To better understand seasonal and annual hydrodynamics in the context of lake morphometry, we analyzed lakes in two adjacent areas where winter water use is expected to increase in the near future because of industrial expansion. Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery acquired between 1985 and 2007 were analyzed and compared with climate data to understand interannual variability. Measured changes in lake area extent varied by 0.6% and were significantly correlated to total precipitation in the preceding 12 months (p < 0.05). Using this relation, the modeled lake area extent from 1985 to 2007 showed no long-term trends. In addition, high-resolution aerial photography, bathymetric surveys, water-level monitoring, and lake-ice thickness measurements and growth models were used to better understand seasonal hydrodynamics, surface area-to-volume relations, winter water availability, and more permanent changes related to geomorphic change. Together, these results describe how lakes vary seasonally and annually in two critical areas of the NPRA and provide simple models to help better predict variation in lake-water supply. Our findings suggest that both overestimation and underestimation of actual available winter water volume may occur regularly, and this understanding may help better inform management strategies as future resource use expands in the NPRA.

Present Day and Future Population Dynamics of the Dengue Vector Mosquito Aedes aegypti Using a Water Container Energy Balance Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinhoff, D.

2017-12-01

Dengue infections are estimated to total nearly 400 million per year worldwide, with both the geographic range and the magnitude of infections having increased in the past 50 years. The primary dengue vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is closely associated with humans. It lives exclusively in urban and semi-urban areas, preferentially bites humans, and spends its developmental stages in artificial water containers. Climate regulates the development of Ae. aegypti immature mosquitoes in artificial containers. Potential containers for Ae. aegypti immature development include, but are not limited to, small sundry items (e.g., bottles, cans, plastic containers), buckets, tires, barrels, tanks, and cisterns. Successful development of immature mosquitoes from eggs to larvae, pupae, and adults is largely dependent on the availability of water and the thermal properties of the water in the containers. An energy balance container model termed the Water Height And Temperature in Container Habitats Energy Model (WHATCH'EM) solves for water temperature and height for user-specified containers with readily available meteorological data. Output from WHATCH'EM is used to estimate development parameters for the immature life stages of the Ae. aegypti mosquito, allowing for assessment of habitat suitability across varying natural environments. Variability amongst different artificial containers (e.g., size, color, material, shape), shading scenarios, and water availability scenarios is also addressed. WHATCH'EM is also coupled with an Ae. aegypti life cycle model to include the effects of the aforementioned factors on survival. Projections of future climate scenarios that take into account changes not only in temperature but also precipitation, humidity, and radiative effects are used in WHATCH'EM to estimate how Ae. aegypti population dynamics may change.

Arctic lake physical processes and regimes with implications for winter water availability and management in the national petroleum reserve alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Benjamin M.; Arp, C.D.; Hinkel, Kenneth M.; Beck, R.A.; Schmutz, J.A.; Winston, B.

2009-01-01

Lakes are dominant landforms in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPRA) as well as important social and ecological resources. Of recent importance is the management of these freshwater ecosystems because lakes deeper than maximum ice thickness provide an important and often sole source of liquid water for aquatic biota, villages, and industry during winter. To better understand seasonal and annual hydrodynamics in the context of lake morphometry, we analyzed lakes in two adjacent areas where winter water use is expected to increase in the near future because of industrial expansion. Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery acquired between 1985 and 2007 were analyzed and compared with climate data to understand interannual variability. Measured changes in lake area extent varied by 0.6% and were significantly correlated to total precipitation in the preceding 12 months (p < 0.05). Using this relation, the modeled lake area extent from 1985 to 2007 showed no long-term trends. In addition, high-resolution aerial photography, bathymetric surveys, water-level monitoring, and lake-ice thickness measurements and growth models were used to better understand seasonal hydrodynamics, surface area-to-volume relations, winter water availability, and more permanent changes related to geomorphic change. Together, these results describe how lakes vary seasonally and annually in two critical areas of the NPRA and provide simple models to help better predict variation in lake-water supply. Our findings suggest that both overestimation and underestimation of actual available winter water volume may occur regularly, and this understanding may help better inform management strategies as future resource use expands in the NPRA. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Impacts of climate change and socio-economic scenarios on flow and water quality of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) river systems: low flow and flood statistics.

PubMed

Whitehead, P G; Barbour, E; Futter, M N; Sarkar, S; Rodda, H; Caesar, J; Butterfield, D; Jin, L; Sinha, R; Nicholls, R; Salehin, M

2015-06-01

The potential impacts of climate change and socio-economic change on flow and water quality in rivers worldwide is a key area of interest. The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) is one of the largest river basins in the world serving a population of over 650 million, and is of vital concern to India and Bangladesh as it provides fresh water for people, agriculture, industry, conservation and for the delta system downstream. This paper seeks to assess future changes in flow and water quality utilising a modelling approach as a means of assessment in a very complex system. The INCA-N model has been applied to the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna river systems to simulate flow and water quality along the rivers under a range of future climate conditions. Three model realisations of the Met Office Hadley Centre global and regional climate models were selected from 17 perturbed model runs to evaluate a range of potential futures in climate. In addition, the models have also been evaluated using socio-economic scenarios, comprising (1) a business as usual future, (2) a more sustainable future, and (3) a less sustainable future. Model results for the 2050s and the 2090s indicate a significant increase in monsoon flows under the future climates, with enhanced flood potential. Low flows are predicted to fall with extended drought periods, which could have impacts on water and sediment supply, irrigated agriculture and saline intrusion. In contrast, the socio-economic changes had relatively little impact on flows, except under the low flow regimes where increased irrigation could further reduce water availability. However, should large scale water transfers upstream of Bangladesh be constructed, these have the potential to reduce flows and divert water away from the delta region depending on the volume and timing of the transfers. This could have significant implications for the delta in terms of saline intrusion, water supply, agriculture and maintaining crucial ecosystems such as the mangrove forests, with serious implications for people's livelihoods in the area. The socio-economic scenarios have a significant impact on water quality, altering nutrient fluxes being transported into the delta region.

Assessing the adaptive capacity of maize hybrids to climate change in an irrigated district of Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monaco, Eugenia; Bonfante, Antonello; De Mascellis, Roberto; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Menenti, Massimo; De Lorenzi, Francesca

2013-04-01

Climate change will cause significant changes in water distribution and availability; as a consequence the water resources in some areas (like Mediterranean regions) will be limiting factors to the cultivation of some species, included cereals. So the perspective of climate change requires an analysis of the adaptation possibilities of food and fiber species currently cultivated. A powerful tool for adaptation is the relevant intra-specific biodiversity of crops. The knowledge, for different crop cultivars, of the responses to different environmental conditions (e.g. yield response functions to water regime) can be a tool to identify adaptation options to future climate. Moreover, simulation models of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system can be coupled with future climate scenarios to predict the soil water regime also accounting for different irrigation scheduling options. In this work the adaptive capacity of maize hybrids (Zea mays L.) was evaluated in an irrigated district of Southern Italy (the "Destra Sele" plain, an area of about 18.000 ha), where maize is extensively grown for water buffalo feeding. Horticultural crops (tomato, fennel, artichoke) are grown, as well. The methodology applied is based on two complementary elements: - a database on climatic requirements of 30 maize hybrids: the yield response functions to water availability were determined from experimental data derived both from scientific literature and from field trials carried out by ISAFOM-CNR. These functions were applied to describe the behaviour of the hybrids with respect to the relative evapotranspiration deficit; - the simulation performed by the agro-hydrological model SWAP (soil-water-plant and atmosphere), to determine the future soil water regime at landscape scale. Two climate scenarios were studied: "past" (1961-1990) and "future" (2021-2050). Future climate scenarios were generated within the Italian National Project AGROSCENARI. Climate scenarios at low spatial resolution generated with general circulation models (AOGCMs) were down-scaled by means of a statistical model (Tomozeiu et al., 2007). The downscaled climate scenario includes 50 realizations of daily minimum, maximum temperature and precipitation data, on a regular grid with a spatial resolution of 35 km. The hydraulic properties of 25 representative soils of the "Destra Sele" area were estimated with HYPRES pedo-transfer function previously tested in the area. The model SWAP was run to determine the soil water balance with different irrigation strategies: optimal irrigation, no irrigation, and deficit irrigation, in both climate periods. Deficit irrigation was scheduled applying water volumes equal to 20%, 40%, 60% and 80% of optimal ones. From the outputs of the model runs the relative evapotranspiration deficit (or Crop Water Stress Index - CWSI) was calculated and compared with the yield response functions of the hybrids. By means of these functions, for each hybrid a critical value of CWSI was identified, namely a CWSI value corresponding to a relative yield of 0.9. By comparing the CWSI of soil units with hybrid's critical values, cultivar's adaptability to future water regime was determined, both as a function of irrigation scheduling and of soils' physical properties. The case study shows how, in the future climate scenario, with limited water resources, the intra-specific variability will allow to maintain current crop production system. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)

Contrasting climate change impact on river flows from high-altitude catchments in the Himalayan and Andes Mountains.

PubMed

Ragettli, Silvan; Immerzeel, Walter W; Pellicciotti, Francesca

2016-08-16

Mountain ranges are the world's natural water towers and provide water resources for millions of people. However, their hydrological balance and possible future changes in river flow remain poorly understood because of high meteorological variability, physical inaccessibility, and the complex interplay between climate, cryosphere, and hydrological processes. Here, we use a state-of-the art glacio-hydrological model informed by data from high-altitude observations and the latest climate change scenarios to quantify the climate change impact on water resources of two contrasting catchments vulnerable to changes in the cryosphere. The two study catchments are located in the Central Andes of Chile and in the Nepalese Himalaya in close vicinity of densely populated areas. Although both sites reveal a strong decrease in glacier area, they show a remarkably different hydrological response to projected climate change. In the Juncal catchment in Chile, runoff is likely to sharply decrease in the future and the runoff seasonality is sensitive to projected climatic changes. In the Langtang catchment in Nepal, future water availability is on the rise for decades to come with limited shifts between seasons. Owing to the high spatiotemporal resolution of the simulations and process complexity included in the modeling, the response times and the mechanisms underlying the variations in glacier area and river flow can be well constrained. The projections indicate that climate change adaptation in Central Chile should focus on dealing with a reduction in water availability, whereas in Nepal preparedness for flood extremes should be the policy priority.

Contrasting climate change impact on river flows from high-altitude catchments in the Himalayan and Andes Mountains

PubMed Central

Pellicciotti, Francesca

2016-01-01

Mountain ranges are the world’s natural water towers and provide water resources for millions of people. However, their hydrological balance and possible future changes in river flow remain poorly understood because of high meteorological variability, physical inaccessibility, and the complex interplay between climate, cryosphere, and hydrological processes. Here, we use a state-of-the art glacio-hydrological model informed by data from high-altitude observations and the latest climate change scenarios to quantify the climate change impact on water resources of two contrasting catchments vulnerable to changes in the cryosphere. The two study catchments are located in the Central Andes of Chile and in the Nepalese Himalaya in close vicinity of densely populated areas. Although both sites reveal a strong decrease in glacier area, they show a remarkably different hydrological response to projected climate change. In the Juncal catchment in Chile, runoff is likely to sharply decrease in the future and the runoff seasonality is sensitive to projected climatic changes. In the Langtang catchment in Nepal, future water availability is on the rise for decades to come with limited shifts between seasons. Owing to the high spatiotemporal resolution of the simulations and process complexity included in the modeling, the response times and the mechanisms underlying the variations in glacier area and river flow can be well constrained. The projections indicate that climate change adaptation in Central Chile should focus on dealing with a reduction in water availability, whereas in Nepal preparedness for flood extremes should be the policy priority. PMID:27482082

How Much Water Trees Access and How It Determines Forest Response to Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berdanier, A. B.; Clark, J. S.

2015-12-01

Forests are transformed by drought as water availability drops below levels where trees of different sizes and species can maintain productivity and survive. Physiological studies have provided detailed understanding of how species differences affect drought vulnerability but they offer almost no insights about the amount of water different trees can access beyond general statements about rooting depth. While canopy architecture provides strong evidence for light availability aboveground, belowground moisture availability remains essentially unknown. For example, do larger trees always have greater access to soil moisture? In temperate mixed forests, the ability to access a large soil moisture pool could minimize damage during drought events and facilitate post-drought recovery, potentially at the expense of neighboring trees. We show that the pool of accessible soil moisture can be estimated for trees with data on whole-plant transpiration and that this data can be used to predict water availability for forest stands. We estimate soil water availability with a Bayesian state-space model based on a simple water balance, where cumulative depressions in water use below potential transpiration indicate soil resource depletion. We compare trees of different sizes and species, extend these findings to the entire stand, and connect them to our recent research showing that tree survival after drought depends on post-drought growth recovery and local moisture availability. These results can be used to predict competitive abilities for soil water, understand ecohydrological variation within stands, and identify trees that are at risk of damage from future drought events.

Water constraints on European power supply under climate change: impacts on electricity prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Vögele, Stefan; Rübbelke, Dirk

2013-09-01

Recent warm, dry summers showed the vulnerability of the European power sector to low water availability and high river temperatures. Climate change is likely to impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power production. Here, we show the impacts of climate change and changes in water availability and water temperature on European electricity production and prices. Using simulations of daily river flows and water temperatures under future climate (2031-2060) in power production models, we show declines in both thermoelectric and hydropower generating potential for most parts of Europe, except for the most northern countries. Based on changes in power production potentials, we assess the cost-optimal use of power plants for each European country by taking electricity import and export constraints into account. Higher wholesale prices are projected on a mean annual basis for most European countries (except for Sweden and Norway), with strongest increases for Slovenia (12-15%), Bulgaria (21-23%) and Romania (31-32% for 2031-2060), where limitations in water availability mainly affect power plants with low production costs. Considering the long design life of power plant infrastructures, short-term adaptation strategies are highly recommended to prevent undesired distributional and allocative effects.

Water resources vulnerability assessment in the Adriatic Sea region: the case of Corfu Island.

PubMed

Kanakoudis, Vasilis; Tsitsifli, Stavroula; Papadopoulou, Anastasia; Cencur Curk, Barbara; Karleusa, Barbara

2017-09-01

Cross-border water resources management and protection is a complicated task to achieve, lacking a common methodological framework. Especially in the Adriatic region, water used for drinking water supply purposes pass from many different countries, turning its management into a hard task to achieve. During the DRINKADRIA project, a common methodological framework has been developed, for efficient and effective cross-border water supply and resources management, taking into consideration different resources types (surface and groundwater) emphasizing in drinking water supply intake. The common methodology for water resources management is based on four pillars: climate characteristics and climate change, water resources availability, quality, and security. The present paper assesses both present and future vulnerability of water resources in the Adriatic region, with special focus on Corfu Island, Greece. The results showed that climate change is expected to impact negatively on water resources availability while at the same time, water demand is expected to increase. Water quality problems will be intensified especially due to land use changes and salt water intrusion. The analysis identified areas where water resources are more vulnerable, allowing decision makers develop management strategies.

Public participation in water resources management: Restructuring model of upstream Musi watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andriani, Yuli; Zagloel, T. Yuri M.; Koestoer, R. H.; Suparmoko, M.

2017-11-01

Water is the source of life needed by living things. Human as one of living most in needs of water. Because the population growth follows the geometrical progression, while the natural resource increases calculates the arithmetic. Humans besides needing water also need land for shelter and for their livelihood needs, such as gardening or rice farmers. If the water absorption area is reduced, water availability will decrease. Therefore it is necessary to conduct an in-depth study of water resources management involving the community. The purpose of this study is to analyze community participation in water resources management, so that its availability can still meet the needs of living and sustainable. The method that used the level of community participation according to Arstein theory. The results obtained that community participation is at the level of partnership and power delegation. This level of participation is at the level of participation that determines the sustainability of water resources for present and future generations.

Influence of landscape heterogeneity on water available to tropical forests in an Amazonian catchment and implications for modeling drought response: Water Available to Tropical Forest

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fang, Yilin; Leung, L. Ruby; Duan, Zhuoran

The Amazon basin experienced periodic droughts in the past, and climate models projected more intense and frequent droughts in the future. How tropical forests respond to drought may depend on water availability, which is modulated by landscape heterogeneity. Using the one-dimensional ACME Land Model (ALM) and the three-dimensional ParFlow variably saturated flow model, a series of numerical experiments were performed for the Asu catchment in central Amazon to elucidate processes that influence water available for plant use and provide insights for improving Earth system models. Results from ParFlow show that topography has a dominant influence on groundwater table and runoffmore » through lateral flow. Without any representations of lateral processes, ALM simulates very different seasonal variations in groundwater table and runoff compared to ParFlow even if it is able to reproduce the long-term spatial average groundwater table of ParFlow through simple parameter calibration. In the ParFlow simulations, the groundwater table is evidently deeper and the soil saturation is lower in the plateau compared to the valley. However, even in the plateau during the dry season in the drought year of 2005, plant transpiration is not water stressed in the ParFlow simulations as the soil saturation is still sufficient to maintain a soil matric potential for the stomata to be fully open. This finding is insensitive to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing and soil parameters, but the empirical wilting formulation used in the models is an important factor that should be addressed using observations and modeling of coupled plant hydraulics-soil hydrology processes in future studies.« less

Life Cycle Water Consumption and Water Resource Assessment for Utility-Scale Geothermal Systems: An In-Depth Analysis of Historical and Forthcoming EGS Projects

DOE Data Explorer

Schroeder, Jenna N.

2013-08-31

This report is the third in a series of reports sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Program in which a range of water-related issues surrounding geothermal power production are evaluated. The first report made an initial attempt at quantifying the life cycle fresh water requirements of geothermal power-generating systems and explored operational and environmental concerns related to the geochemical composition of geothermal fluids. The initial analysis of life cycle fresh water consumption of geothermal power-generating systems identified that operational water requirements consumed the vast majority of water across the life cycle. However, it relied upon limited operational water consumption data and did not account for belowground operational losses for enhanced geothermal systems (EGSs). A second report presented an initial assessment of fresh water demand for future growth in utility-scale geothermal power generation. The current analysis builds upon this work to improve life cycle fresh water consumption estimates and incorporates regional water availability into the resource assessment to improve the identification of areas where future growth in geothermal electricity generation may encounter water challenges.

The quality of our Nation's waters: Water quality in principal aquifers of the United States, 1991-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeSimone, Leslie A.; McMahon, Peter B.; Rosen, Michael R.

2015-01-01

About 130 million people in the United States rely on groundwater for drinking water, and the need for high-quality drinking-water supplies becomes more urgent as our population grows. Although groundwater is a safe, reliable source of drinking water for millions of people nationwide, high concentrations of some chemical constituents can pose potential human-health concerns. Some of these contaminants come from the rocks and sediments of the aquifers themselves, and others are chemicals that we use in agriculture, industry, and day-to-day life. When groundwater supplies are contaminated, millions of dollars can be required for treatment so that the supplies can be usable. Contaminants in groundwater can also affect the health of our streams and valuable coastal waters. By knowing where contaminants occur in groundwater, what factors control contaminant concentrations, and what kinds of changes in groundwater quality might be expected in the future, we can ensure the availability and quality of this vital natural resource in the future.

Leaf water potential, Feb2016-May2016, PA-SLZ, PA-PNM, PA-BCI: Panama

DOE Data Explorer

Wolfe, Brett [Smithsonian; Wu, Jin [BNL; Ely, Kim [Brookhaven National Lab; Serbin, Shawn [Brookhaven National Lab; Rogers, Alistair [Brookhaven National Lab; Dickman, Turin [Los Alamos National Lab; Collins, Adam [Los Alamos National Lab; Detto, Matteo [Princeton; Grossiord, Charlotte [Los Alamos National Lab; McDowell, Nate [Los Alamos National Lab; Michaletz, Sean

2017-01-01

Pre-dawn and diurnal leaf water potential measured on a monthly basis from Feb to May 2016 at SLZ and PNM. Data from BCI only available for March. This data was collected as part of the 2016 ENSO campaign. See related datasets (existing and future) for further sample details, leaf spectra, LMA, gas exchange and leaf chemistry.

Influence of free water availability on a desert carnivore and herbivore.

PubMed

Kluever, Bryan M; Gese, Eric M; Dempsey, Steven J

2017-04-01

Anthropogenic manipulation of finite resources on the landscape to benefit individual species or communities is commonly employed by conservation and management agencies. One such action in arid regions is the construction and maintenance of water developments (i.e., wildlife guzzlers) adding free water on the landscape to buttress local populations, influence animal movements, or affect distributions of certain species of interest. Despite their prevalence, the utility of wildlife guzzlers remains largely untested. We employed a before-after control-impact (BACI) design over a 4-year period on the US Army Dugway Proving Ground, Utah, USA, to determine whether water availability at wildlife guzzlers influenced relative abundance of black-tailed jackrabbits Lepus californicus and relative use of areas near that resource by coyotes Canis latrans , and whether coyote visitations to guzzlers would decrease following elimination of water. Eliminating water availability at guzzlers did not influence jackrabbit relative abundance. Coyote relative use was impacted by water availability, with elimination of water reducing use in areas associated with our treatment, but not with areas associated with our control. Visitations of radio-collared coyotes to guzzlers declined nearly 3-fold following elimination of water. Our study provides the first evidence of a potential direct effect of water sources on a mammalian carnivore in an arid environment, but the ecological relevance of our finding is debatable. Future investigations aimed at determining water effects on terrestrial mammals could expand on our findings by incorporating manipulations of water availability, obtaining absolute estimates of population parameters and vital rates and incorporating fine-scale spatiotemporal data.

Influence of free water availability on a desert carnivore and herbivore

PubMed Central

Gese, Eric M.; Dempsey, Steven J.

2017-01-01

Abstract Anthropogenic manipulation of finite resources on the landscape to benefit individual species or communities is commonly employed by conservation and management agencies. One such action in arid regions is the construction and maintenance of water developments (i.e., wildlife guzzlers) adding free water on the landscape to buttress local populations, influence animal movements, or affect distributions of certain species of interest. Despite their prevalence, the utility of wildlife guzzlers remains largely untested. We employed a before–after control-impact (BACI) design over a 4-year period on the US Army Dugway Proving Ground, Utah, USA, to determine whether water availability at wildlife guzzlers influenced relative abundance of black-tailed jackrabbits Lepus californicus and relative use of areas near that resource by coyotes Canis latrans, and whether coyote visitations to guzzlers would decrease following elimination of water. Eliminating water availability at guzzlers did not influence jackrabbit relative abundance. Coyote relative use was impacted by water availability, with elimination of water reducing use in areas associated with our treatment, but not with areas associated with our control. Visitations of radio-collared coyotes to guzzlers declined nearly 3-fold following elimination of water. Our study provides the first evidence of a potential direct effect of water sources on a mammalian carnivore in an arid environment, but the ecological relevance of our finding is debatable. Future investigations aimed at determining water effects on terrestrial mammals could expand on our findings by incorporating manipulations of water availability, obtaining absolute estimates of population parameters and vital rates and incorporating fine-scale spatiotemporal data. PMID:29491969

Decontamination of chemical agents from drinking water infrastructure: a literature review and summary.

PubMed

Szabo, Jeff; Minamyer, Scott

2014-11-01

This report summarizes the current state of knowledge on the persistence of chemical contamination on drinking water infrastructure (such as pipes) along with information on decontamination should persistence occur. Decontamination options for drinking water infrastructure have been explored for some chemical contaminants, but important data gaps remain. In general, data on chemical persistence on drinking water infrastructure is available for inorganics such as arsenic and mercury, as well as select organics such as petroleum products, pesticides and rodenticides. Data specific to chemical warfare agents and pharmaceuticals was not found and data on toxins is scant. Future research suggestions focus on expanding the available chemical persistence data to other common drinking water infrastructure materials. Decontaminating agents that successfully removed persistent contamination from one infrastructure material should be used in further studies. Methods for sampling or extracting chemical agents from water infrastructure surfaces are needed. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Towards risk-based drought management in the Netherlands: making water supply levels transparent to water users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maat Judith, Ter; Marjolein, Mens; Vuren Saskia, Van; der Vat Marnix, Van

2016-04-01

To prepare the Dutch Delta for future droughts and water scarcity, a nation-wide 4-year project, called Delta Programme, assessed the impact of climate change and socio-economic development, and explored strategies to deal with these impacts. The Programme initiated a joint approach to water supply management with stakeholders and developed a national adaptation plan that is able to adapt to future uncertain conditions. The adaptation plan consists of a set of preferred policy pathways - sequences of possible actions and measures through time - to achieve targets while responding in a flexible manner to uncertain developments over time, allowing room to respond to new opportunities and insights. With regard to fresh water allocation, the Delta Programme stated that supplying water of sufficient quality is a shared responsibility that requires cohesive efforts among users in the main and regional water system. The national and local authorities and water users involved agreed that the water availability and, where relevant, the water quality should be as transparent and predictable as possible under normal, dry and extremely dry conditions. They therefore introduced the concept of "water supply service levels", which should describe water availability and quality that can be delivered with a certain return period, for all regions and all relevant water users in the Netherlands. The service levels form an addition to the present policy and should be decided on by 2021. At present water allocation during periods of (expected) water shortage occurs according to a prearranged ranking system (a water hierarchy scheme based on a list of priorities), if water availability drops below a critical low level. The aim is to have supply levels available that are based on the probability of occurrence and economic impact of water shortage, and that are transparent for all water users in the regional water systems and the main water system. As part of the European project Improving Predictions and Management of Hydrological Extremes (IMPREX), running from 2016-2019, a consortium of the Dutch research institute Deltares and the Dutch water management consultant HKV will design and build a tool to support quantitative risk-informed decision-making for fresh water management for the Netherlands, in particular the decision on water supply service levels. The research will be conducted in collaboration with the Dutch Ministry for Infrastructure and Environment, the Freshwater Supply Programme Office, the Dutch governmental organisation responsible for water management (Rijkswaterstaat), the Foundation for Applied Water Research, (STOWA, knowledge centre of the water boards) and a number of water boards. In the session we will present the conceptual framework for a risk-based approach for water shortage management and share thoughts on how the proposed tool can be applied in the Dutch water management context.

Desert grassland responses to climate and soil moisture suggest divergent vulnerabilities across the southwestern US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gremer, Jennifer; Bradford, John B.; Munson, Seth M.; Duniway, Michael C.

2015-01-01

Climate change predictions include warming and drying trends, which are expected to be particularly pronounced in the southwestern United States. In this region, grassland dynamics are tightly linked to available moisture, yet it has proven difficult to resolve what aspects of climate drive vegetation change. In part, this is because it is unclear how heterogeneity in soils affects plant responses to climate. Here, we combine climate and soil properties with a mechanistic soil water model to explain temporal fluctuations in perennial grass cover, quantify where and the degree to which incorporating soil water dynamics enhances our ability to understand temporal patterns, and explore the potential consequences of climate change by assessing future trajectories of important climate and soil water variables. Our analyses focused on long-term (20 to 56 years) perennial grass dynamics across the Colorado Plateau, Sonoran, and Chihuahuan Desert regions. Our results suggest that climate variability has negative effects on grass cover, and that precipitation subsidies that extend growing seasons are beneficial. Soil water metrics, including the number of dry days and availability of water from deeper (>30 cm) soil layers, explained additional grass cover variability. While individual climate variables were ranked as more important in explaining grass cover, collectively soil water accounted for 40 to 60% of the total explained variance. Soil water conditions were more useful for understanding the responses of C3 than C4 grass species. Projections of water balance variables under climate change indicate that conditions that currently support perennial grasses will be less common in the future, and these altered conditions will be more pronounced in the Chihuahuan Desert and Colorado Plateau. We conclude that incorporating multiple aspects of climate and accounting for soil variability can improve our ability to understand patterns, identify areas of vulnerability, and predict the future of desert grasslands.

Desert grassland responses to climate and soil moisture suggest divergent vulnerabilities across the southwestern United States.

PubMed

Gremer, Jennifer R; Bradford, John B; Munson, Seth M; Duniway, Michael C

2015-11-01

Climate change predictions include warming and drying trends, which are expected to be particularly pronounced in the southwestern United States. In this region, grassland dynamics are tightly linked to available moisture, yet it has proven difficult to resolve what aspects of climate drive vegetation change. In part, this is because it is unclear how heterogeneity in soils affects plant responses to climate. Here, we combine climate and soil properties with a mechanistic soil water model to explain temporal fluctuations in perennial grass cover, quantify where and the degree to which incorporating soil water dynamics enhances our ability to understand temporal patterns, and explore the potential consequences of climate change by assessing future trajectories of important climate and soil water variables. Our analyses focused on long-term (20-56 years) perennial grass dynamics across the Colorado Plateau, Sonoran, and Chihuahuan Desert regions. Our results suggest that climate variability has negative effects on grass cover, and that precipitation subsidies that extend growing seasons are beneficial. Soil water metrics, including the number of dry days and availability of water from deeper (>30 cm) soil layers, explained additional grass cover variability. While individual climate variables were ranked as more important in explaining grass cover, collectively soil water accounted for 40-60% of the total explained variance. Soil water conditions were more useful for understanding the responses of C3 than C4 grass species. Projections of water balance variables under climate change indicate that conditions that currently support perennial grasses will be less common in the future, and these altered conditions will be more pronounced in the Chihuahuan Desert and Colorado Plateau. We conclude that incorporating multiple aspects of climate and accounting for soil variability can improve our ability to understand patterns, identify areas of vulnerability, and predict the future of desert grasslands. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Quantifying the potential for reservoirs to secure future surface water yields in the world’s largest river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Lu; Parkinson, Simon; Gidden, Matthew; Byers, Edward; Satoh, Yusuke; Riahi, Keywan; Forman, Barton

2018-04-01

Surface water reservoirs provide us with reliable water supply, hydropower generation, flood control and recreation services. Yet reservoirs also cause flow fragmentation in rivers and lead to flooding of upstream areas, thereby displacing existing land-use activities and ecosystems. Anticipated population growth and development coupled with climate change in many regions of the globe suggests a critical need to assess the potential for future reservoir capacity to help balance rising water demands with long-term water availability. Here, we assess the potential of large-scale reservoirs to provide reliable surface water yields while also considering environmental flows within 235 of the world’s largest river basins. Maps of existing cropland and habitat conservation zones are integrated with spatially-explicit population and urbanization projections from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to identify regions unsuitable for increasing water supply by exploiting new reservoir storage. Results show that even when maximizing the global reservoir storage to its potential limit (∼4.3–4.8 times the current capacity), firm yields would only increase by about 50% over current levels. However, there exist large disparities across different basins. The majority of river basins in North America are found to gain relatively little firm yield by increasing storage capacity, whereas basins in Southeast Asia display greater potential for expansion as well as proportional gains in firm yield under multiple uncertainties. Parts of Europe, the United States and South America show relatively low reliability of maintaining current firm yields under future climate change, whereas most of Asia and higher latitude regions display comparatively high reliability. Findings from this study highlight the importance of incorporating different factors, including human development, land-use activities, and climate change, over a time span of multiple decades and across a range of different scenarios when quantifying available surface water yields and the potential for reservoir expansion.

Numerical simulation of groundwater artificial recharge in a semiarid-climate basin of northwest Mexico, case study the Guadalupe Valley Aquifer, Baja California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campos-Gaytan, J. R.; Herrera-Oliva, C. S.

2013-05-01

In this study was analyzed through a regional groundwater flow model the effects on groundwater levels caused by the application of different future groundwater management scenarios (2007-2025) at the Guadalupe Valley, in Baja California, Mexico. Among these studied alternatives are those scenarios designed in order to evaluate the possible effects generated for the groundwater artificial recharge in order to satisfy a future water demand with an extraction volume considered as sustainable. The State of Baja California has been subject to an increment of the agricultural, urban and industrials activities, implicating a growing water-demand. However, the State is characterized by its semiarid-climate with low surface water availability; therefore, has resulted in an extensive use of groundwater in local aquifer. Water level measurements indicate there has been a decline in water levels in the Guadalupe Valley for the past 30 years. The Guadalupe Valley aquifer represents one the major sources of water supply in Ensenada region. It supplies about 25% of the water distributed by the public water supplier at the city of Ensenada and in addition constitutes the main water resource for the local wine industries. Artificially recharging the groundwater system is one water resource option available to the study zone, in response to increasing water demand. The existing water supply system for the Guadalupe Valley and the city of Ensenada is limited since water use demand periods in 5 to 10 years or less will require the construction of additional facilities. To prepare for this short-term demand, one option available to water managers is to bring up to approximately 3.0 Mm3/year of treated water of the city of Ensenada into the valley during the low-demand winter months, artificially recharge the groundwater system, and withdraw the water to meet the summer demands. A 2- Dimensional groundwater flow was used to evaluate the effects of the groundwater artificial recharge. Artificial recharge is feasible and is one water resource technique available to meet an increasing water demand; therefore, the final objective was to estimate the response of the groundwater system to the possible development of a system for artificial recharge of the aquifer. Based on the analysis of the groundwater management alternatives it was determined a groundwater withdrawal which ensures a sustainable management of the aquifer, in order to maintain a sustainable extraction volume and to reduce the water table depletion.

Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on the Operations and Future Development of the U.S. Electricity System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newmark, R. L.; Cohen, S. M.; Averyt, K.; Macknick, J.; Meldrum, J.; Sullivan, P.

2014-12-01

Climate change has the potential to exacerbate reliability concerns for the power sector through changes in water availability and air temperatures. The power sector is responsible for 41% of U.S. freshwater withdrawals, primarily for power plant cooling needs, and any changes in the water available for the power sector, given increasing competition among water users, could affect decisions about new power plant builds and reliable operations for existing generators. Similarly, increases in air temperatures can reduce power plant efficiencies, which in turn increases fuel consumption as well as water withdrawal and consumption rates. This analysis describes an initial link between climate, water, and electricity systems using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity system capacity expansion model. Average surface water runoff projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) data are applied to surface water available to generating capacity in ReEDS, and electric sector growth is compared with and without climate-influenced water availability for the 134 electricity balancing regions in the ReEDS model. In addition, air temperature changes are considered for their impacts on electricity load, transmission capacity, and power plant efficiencies and water use rates. Mean climate projections have only a small impact on national or regional capacity growth and water use because most regions have sufficient unappropriated or previously retired water access to offset climate impacts. Climate impacts are notable in southwestern states, which experience reduced water access purchases and a greater share of water acquired from wastewater and other higher-cost water resources. The electric sector climate impacts demonstrated herein establish a methodology to be later exercised with more extreme climate scenarios and a more rigorous representation of legal and physical water availability.

The Cauvery river basin in southern India: major challenges and possible solutions in the 21st century.

PubMed

Vanham, D; Weingartner, R; Rauch, W

2011-01-01

India is facing major challenges in its water resources management (WRM) sector. Water shortages are attributed to issues such as an explosion in population, rapid urbanization and industrialization, environmental degradation and inefficient water use, all aggravated by changing climate and its impacts on demand, supply and water quality. This paper focuses on the contemporary and future situation in the Cauvery river basin in Southern India, shared by different states, predominantly Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. As water issues largely fall under the authority of the states, inter-state water disputes have a long tradition in the Cauvery river basin. Future changes in precipitation during the two monsoon seasons will only increase these tensions. Both states depend on the arrival of these monsoon rains to water their crops and to replenish the groundwater. The paper identifies the major challenges and general possible solutions for sustainable WRM within the river basin. It synthesises the relevant literature, describes practices that should be addressed in the scope of integrated WRM--including water availability increase and demand management--and stresses the need for further quantitative analyses.

Estimating national water use associated with unconventional oil and gas development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carter, Janet M.; Macek-Rowland, Kathleen M.; Thamke, Joanna N.; Delzer, Gregory C.

2016-05-18

The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Water Availability and Use Science Program (WAUSP) goals are to provide a more accurate assessment of the status of the water resources of the United States and assist in the determination of the quantity and quality of water that is available for beneficial uses. These assessments would identify long-term trends or changes in water availability since the 1950s in the United States and help to develop the basis for an improved ability to forecast water avail- ability for future economic, energy-production, and environmental uses. The National Water Census (http://water.usgs.gov/watercensus/), a research program of the WAUSP, supports studies to develop new water accounting tools and assess water availability at the regional and national scales. Studies supported by this program target focus areas with identified water availability concerns and topical science themes related to the use of water within a specific type of environmental setting. The topical study described in this fact sheet will focus on understanding the relation between production of unconventional oil and gas (UOG) for energy and the water needed to produce and sustain this type of energy development. This relation applies to the life-cycle of renewable and nonrenewable forms of UOG energy and includes extraction, production, refinement, delivery, and disposal of waste byproducts. Water-use data and models derived from this topical study will be applied to other similar oil and gas plays within the United States to help resource managers assess and account for water used or needed in these areas. Additionally, the results from this topical study will be used to further refine the methods used in compiling water-use data for selected categories (for example, mining, domestic self-supplied, public supply, and wastewater) in the USGS’s 5-year national water-use estimates reports (http://water.usgs.gov/watuse/).

Research on environmental impact of water-based fire extinguishing agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shuai

2018-02-01

This paper offers current status of application of water-based fire extinguishing agents, the environmental and research considerations of the need for the study of toxicity research. This paper also offers systematic review of test methods of toxicity and environmental impact of water-based fire extinguishing agents currently available, illustrate the main requirements and relevant test methods, and offer some research findings for future research considerations. The paper also offers limitations of current study.

Response and adaptation of grapevine cultivars to hydrological conditions forced by a changing climate in a complex landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Lorenzi, Francesca; Bonfante, Antonello; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Monaco, Eugenia; De Mascellis, Roberto; Manna, Piero; Menenti, Massimo

2014-05-01

Soil water availability is one of the main components of the terroir concept, influencing crop yield and fruit composition in grapes. The aim of this work is to analyze some elements of the "natural environment" of terroir (climate and soil) in combination with the intra-specific biodiversity of yield responses of grapevine to water availability. From a reference (1961-90) to a future (2021-50) climate case, the effects of climate evolution on soil water availability are assessed and, regarding soil water regime as a predictor variable, the potential spatial distribution of wine-producing cultivars is determined. In a region of Southern Italy (Valle Telesina, 20,000 ha), where a terroir classification has been produced (Bonfante et al., 2011), we applied an agro-hydrological model to determine water availability indicators. Simulations were performed in 60 soil typological units, over the entire study area, and water availability (= hydrological) indicators were determined. Two climate cases were considered: reference (1961-90) and future (2021-2050), the former from climatic statistics on observed variables, and the latter from statistical downscaling of predictions by general circulation models (AOGCM) under A1B SRES scenario. Climatic data consist of daily time series of maximum and minimum temperature, and daily rainfall on a grid with a spatial resolution of 35 km. Spatial and temporal variability of hydrological indicators was addressed. With respect to temporal variability, both inter-annual and intra-annual (i.e. at different stages of crop cycle) variability were analyzed. Some cultivar-specific relations between hydrological indicators and characteristics of must quality were established. Moreover, for several wine-producing cultivars, hydrological requirements were determined by means of yield response functions to soil water availability, through the re-analysis of experimental data derived from scientific literature. The standard errors of estimated requirements were determined. To assess cultivars adaptability, hydrological requirements were evaluated against hydrological indicators. A probabilistic assessment of adaptability was performed, and the inaccuracy of estimated hydrological requirements was accounted for by the error of estimate and its distribution. Maps of cultivars potential distribution, i.e. locations where each cultivar is expected to be compatible with climate, were derived and possible options for adaptation to climate change were defined. The 2021 - 2050 climate scenario was characterized by higher temperatures throughout the year and by a significant decrease in precipitation during spring and autumn. The results have shown the relevant variability of soils water regime and its effects on cultivars adaptability. In the future climate scenario, a hydrological indicator (i.e. relative evapotranspiration deficit - RETD), averaged over the growing season, showed an average increase of 5-8 %, and more pronounced increases occurred in the phenological phases of berry formation and ripening. At the locations where soil hydrological conditions were favourable (like the ancient terraces), hydrological indicators were quite similar in both climate scenarios and the adaptability of the cultivars was high both in the reference and future climate case. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008) Keywords: climate change, Vitis vinifera L., simulation model, yield response functions, potential cultivation area.

Middle-term metropolitan water availability index assessment based on synergistic potentials of multi-sensor data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Ni-Bin; Yang, Y. Jeffrey; Daranpob, Ammarin

2010-03-01

The impact of recent drought and water pollution episodes results in an acute need to project future water availability to assist water managers in water utility infrastructure management within many metropolitan regions. Separate drought and water quality indices previously developed might not be sufficient for the purpose of such an assessment. This paper describes the development of the "Metropolitan Water Availability Index (MWAI)" and its potential applications in assessing the middle-term water availability at the watershed scale in a fast growing metropolitan region - the Manatee County near Tampa Bay, Florida, U.S.A. The MWAI framework is based on a statistical approach that seeks to reflect the continuous spatial and temporal variations of both water quantity and quality using a simple numerical index. Such a trend analysis will surely result in the final MWAI values for regional water management systems within a specified range. By using remote sensing technologies and data processing techniques, continuous monitoring of spatial and temporal distributions of key water availability variables, such as evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation, is made achievable. These remote sensing technologies can be ground-based (e.g., radar estimates of rainfall), or based on remote sensing data gathered by aircraft or satellites. Using a middle term historical record, the MWAI was applied to the Manatee County water supplies. The findings clearly indicate that only eight out of twelve months in 2008 had positive MWAI values during the year. Such numerical findings are consistent with the observational evidence of statewide drought events in 2006-2008, which implies the time delay between the ending of severe drought period and the recovery of water availability in MWAI. It is expected that this forward-looking novel water availability forecasting platform will help provide a linkage in methodology between strategic planning, master planning, and the plant operation and adaptations in response to the MWAI implications.

Fusion of multisource and multiscale remote sensing data for water availability assessment in a metropolitan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, N. B.; Yang, Y. J.; Daranpob, A.

2009-09-01

Recent extreme hydroclimatic events in the United States alone include, but are not limited to, the droughts in Maryland and the Chesapeake Bay area in 2001 through September 2002; Lake Mead in Las Vegas in 2000 through 2004; the Peace River and Lake Okeechobee in South Florida in 2006; and Lake Lanier in Atlanta, Georgia in 2007 that affected the water resources distribution in three states - Alabama, Florida and Georgia. This paper provides evidence from previous work and elaborates on the future perspectives that will collectively employ remote sensing and in-situ observations to support the implementation of the water availability assessment in a metropolitan region. Within the hydrological cycle, precipitation, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration can be monitored by using WSR-88D/NEXRAD data, RADARSAT-1 images, and GEOS images collectively to address the spatiotemporal variations of quantitative availability of waters whereas the MODIS images may be used to track down the qualitative availability of waters in terms of turbidity, Chlorophyll-a and other constitutes of concern. Tampa Bay in Florida was selected as a study site in this analysis, where the water supply infrastructure covers groundwater, desalination plant, and surface water at the same time. Research findings show that through the proper fusion of multi-source and multi-scale remote sensing data for water availability assessment in metropolitan region, a new insight of water infrastructure assessment can be gained to support sustainable planning region wide.

Water2Invest: Global facility for calculating investments needed to bridge the climate-induced water gap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straatsma, Menno; Droogers, Peter; Brandsma, Jairus; Buytaert, Wouter; Karssenberg, Derek; Meijer, Karen; van Aalst, Maaike; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Bierkens, Marc

2013-04-01

Decision makers responsible for climate change adaptation investments are confronted with large uncertainties regarding future water availability and water demand, as well as the investment cost required to reduce the water gap. Moreover, scientists have worked hard to increase fundamental knowledge on climate change and its impacts (climate services), while practical use of this knowledge is limited due to a lack of tools for decision support under uncertain long term future scenarios (decision services). The Water2Invest project aims are to (i) assess the joint impact of climate change and socioeconomic change on water scarcity, (ii) integrate impact and potential adaptation in one flow, (iii) prioritize adaptation options to counteract water scarcity on their financial, regional socio-economic and environmental implications, and (iv) deliver all this information in an integrated user-friendly web-based service. Global water availability is computed between 2006 and 2100 using the PCR-GLOBWB water resources model at a 6 minute spatial resolution. Climate change scenarios are based on the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that defines four CO2 emission scenarios as representative concentration pathways. Water demand is computed for agriculture, industry, domestic, and environmental requirements based on socio-economic scenarios of increase in population and gross domestic product. Using a linear programming algorithm, water is allocated on a monthly basis over the four sectors. Based on these assessments, the user can evaluate various technological and infrastructural adaptation measures to assess the investments needed to bridge the future water gap. Regional environmental and socioeconomic effects of these investments are evaluated, such as environmental flows or downstream effects. A scheme is developed to evaluate the strategies on robustness and flexibility under climate change and scenario uncertainty, and each measure is linked to possibilities for investment and financing mechanisms. The tool can be used by consultants, water authorities, non-governmental and commercial investors alike to test investment strategies, but could also be used by companies as a vehicle for advertisement water saving or crop water productivity technologies that can be evaluated on their effectiveness on the spot. We show initial results based on a preliminary study on the Middle East and North African region.

Water: A Critical Material Enabling Space Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pickering, Karen D.

2014-01-01

Water is one of the most critical materials in human spaceflight. The availability of water defines the duration of a space mission; the volume of water required for a long-duration space mission becomes too large, heavy, and expensive for launch vehicles to carry. Since the mission duration is limited by the amount of water a space vehicle can carry, the capability to recycle water enables space exploration. In addition, water management in microgravity impacts spaceflight in other respects, such as the recent emergency termination of a spacewalk caused by free water in an astronaut's spacesuit helmet. A variety of separation technologies are used onboard spacecraft to ensure that water is always available for use, and meets the stringent water quality required for human space exploration. These separation technologies are often adapted for use in a microgravity environment, where water behaves in unique ways. The use of distillation, membrane processes, ion exchange and granular activated carbon will be reviewed. Examples of microgravity effects on operations will also be presented. A roadmap for future technologies, needed to supply water resources for the exploration of Mars, will also be reviewed.

Water quality under increased biofuel production and future climate change and uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demissie, Y. K.; Yan, E.

2015-12-01

Over the past decade, biofuel has emerged as an important renewable energy source to supplement gasoline and reduce the associated greenhouse gas emission. Many countries, for instant, have adopted biofuel production goals to blend 10% or more of gasoline with biofuels within 10 to 20 years. However, meeting these goals requires sustainable production of biofuel feedstock which can be challenging under future change in climate and extreme weather conditions, as well as the likely impacts of biofuel feedstock production on water quality and availability. To understand this interrelationship and the combined effects of increased biofuel production and climate change on regional and local water resources, we have performed watershed hydrology and water quality analyses for the Ohio River Basin. The basin is one of the major biofuel feedstock producing region in the United States, which also currently contributes about half of the flow and one third of phosphorus and nitrogen loadings to the Mississippi River that eventually flows to the Gulf of Mexico. The analyses integrate future scenarios and climate change and biofuel development through various mixes of landuse and agricultural management changes and examine their potential impacts on regional and local hydrology, water quality, soil erosion, and agriculture productivity. The results of the study are expected to provide much needed insight about the sustainability of large-scale biofuel feedstock production under the future climate change and uncertainty, and helps to further optimize the feedstock production taking into consideration the water-use efficiency.

Extracting organic matter on Mars: A comparison of methods involving subcritical water, surfactant solutions and organic solvents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luong, Duy; Court, Richard W.; Sims, Mark R.; Cullen, David C.; Sephton, Mark A.

2014-09-01

The first step in many life detection protocols on Mars involves attempts to extract or isolate organic matter from its mineral matrix. A number of extraction options are available and include heat and solvent assisted methods. Recent operations on Mars indicate that heating samples can cause the loss or obfuscation of organic signals from target materials, raising the importance of solvent-based systems for future missions. Several solvent types are available (e.g. organic solvents, surfactant based solvents and subcritical water extraction) but a comparison of their efficiencies in Mars relevant materials is missing. We have spiked the well characterised Mars analogue material JSC Mars-1 with a number of representative organic standards. Extraction of the spiked JSC Mars-1 with the three solvent methods provides insights into the relative efficiency of these methods and indicates how they may be used on future Mars missions.

Economic Impact of Water Allocation on Agriculture in the Lower Chattahoochee River Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Limaye, Ashutosh S.; Paudel, Krishna P.; Musleh, Fuad; Cruise, James F.; Hatch, L. Upton

2004-01-01

The relative value of irrigation water was assessed for three important crops (corn, cotton, and peanuts) grown in the southeastern United States. A decision tool was developed with the objective of allocating limited available water among competing crops in a manner that would maximize the economic returns to the producers. The methodology was developed and tested for a hypothetical farm located in Henry County, Alabama in the Chattahoochee river basin. Crop yield - soil moisture response functions were developed using Monte Carlo simulated data for cotton, corn, and peanuts. A hydrologic model was employed to simulate runoff over the period of observed rainfall the county to provide inflows to storage facilities that could be used as constraints for the optimal allocation of the available water in the face of the uncertainty of future rainfall and runoff. Irrigation decisions were made on a weekly basis during the critical water deficit period in the region. An economic optimization model was employed with the crop responses, and soil moisture functions to determine the optimum amount of water place on each crop subject to the amount of irrigation water availability and climatic uncertainty. The results indicated even small amounts of irrigation could significantly benefit farmers in the region if applied judiciously. A weekly irrigation sequence was developed that maintained the available water on the crops that exhibited the most significant combination of water sensitivity and cash value.

Linking Pan-European data to the local scale for decision making for global change and water scarcity within water resources planning and management.

PubMed

Suárez-Almiñana, Sara; Pedro-Monzonís, María; Paredes-Arquiola, Javier; Andreu, Joaquín; Solera, Abel

2017-12-15

This study focuses on a novel type of methodology which connects Pan-European data to the local scale in the field of water resources management. This methodology is proposed to improve and facilitate the decision making within the planning and management of water resources, taking into account climate change and its expected impacts. Our main point of interest is focused on the assessment of the predictability of extreme events and their possible effects, specifically droughts and water scarcity. Consequently, the Júcar River Basin was selected as the case study, due to the ongoing water scarcity problems and the last drought episodes suffered in the Mediterranean region. In order to study these possible impacts, we developed a modeling chain divided into four steps, they are: i) data collection, ii) analysis of available data, iii) models calibration and iv) climate impact analysis. Over previous steps, we used climate data from 15 different regional climate models (RCMs) belonging to the three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) coming from a hydrological model across all of Europe called E-HYPE. The data were bias corrected and used to obtain statistical results of the availability of water resources for the future (horizon 2039) and in form of indicators. This was performed through a hydrological (EVALHID), stochastic (MASHWIN) and risk management (SIMRISK) models, all of which were specifically calibrated for this basin. The results show that the availability of water resources is much more enthusiastic than in the current situation, indicating the possibility that climate change, which was predicted to occur in the future has already happened in the Júcar River Basin. It seems that the so called "Effect 80", an important decrease in water resources for the last three decades, is not well contemplated in the initial data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Testing the sensitivity of snowpack to climatic change in a large physiographically diverse watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDonald, R. J.; Byrne, J. M.; Kienzle, S. W.; Sauchyn, D.

2009-12-01

Snowpack in mountain watersheds provide a large portion of fresh water for many human and ecosystem function. Given the sensitivity of snow processes to temperature, it is likely that available water from snowpack will be reduced under future climate warming. It is important to understand how mountain environments will respond to changes in climate in order to properly manage water future resources. In order to assess potential changes in mountain snowpack and subsequent effects on water supply, we use a combination of hydrometeorological and general circulation models (GCMs). This work describes the application of the GENESYS (GENerate Earth SYstems Science input) spatial hydrometeorological model in simulating potential future changes in snowpack for the North Saskatchewan River watershed, Alberta. Snowpack in the North Saskatchewan River watershed supplies fresh water for over one million people and supports a wide range of ecosystem processes. To assess how snowpack may change in the watershed, scenarios from five GCMs are applied by perturbing the 1961-90 time series with mean changes in temperature and precipitation for the 2010-39, 2040-69 and 2070-99 periods. This study demonstrates that snowpack in the North Saskatchewan River watershed is highly susceptible to climate change and adaptive management strategies should be implemented to ensure sustainable water resources in the region.

Understanding the drivers of the future water gap in the Indus-Ganges-Brahmaputra basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Immerzeel, W. W.; Wijngaard, R. R.; Biemans, H.; Lutz, A. F.

2017-12-01

The Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra (IGB) river systems provide water resources for the agricultural, domestic and industrial sectors sustaining the lives of about 700 million people. The region is globally a hotspot for climate change as the headwaters of these rivers are fed by melt water from snow and glaciers, both strongly influenced by temperature change. In addition, the hydrology in the region is determined by the monsoon and its future dynamics as a results of climate change remains very uncertain. Simultaneously, the population is projected to grow rapidly over the coming decades, which in combination with strong economic developments, will likely result in a rapid increase in water demand. In this study we attempt to quantify the future water gap in the IGB and attribute this water gap to climate change and socio-economic growth. For the upstream mountainous parts of the basins we use the SPHY model, which is calibrated based on historical streamflow and glacier mass balance data and forced by the latest CMIP5 future climate model data for RCP4.5 and 8.5. Output of this model feeds into the downstream LPJmL model, which allows assessment of downstream climate change impacts and projected changes in water demand as a result of socio-economic developments. The LPJmL model is run for different combinations of RCPs and Shared Socio Economic Pathways (SSPs). Our results show that for the IGB as a whole climate change will increase water availability in the coming decades, due to an overall, albeit uncertain, increase in monsoon precipitation in combination with a sustained melt water supply from the upstream parts of the basins. However, irrespective of the SSP and RCP, the water demand as a result of socio-economic growth is expected to increase extremely fast in the near future and this is likely to be the main adaptation challenge for the IGB as far as water shortages are concerned. Our results also show that regional and temporal variation in the water gap is large and that basin specific adaptation measures are required that take into account both socio-economic developments as well as climate change.

Integrating indigenous ecological and scientific hydro-geological knowledge using a Bayesian Network in the context of water resource development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liedloff, A. C.; Woodward, E. L.; Harrington, G. A.; Jackson, S.

2013-08-01

The contributions indigenous ecological knowledge can make to better inform water management decisions are currently undervalued leading to an underrepresentation of indigenous values in water planning and policy. This paper outlines a novel approach in which indigenous ecological knowledge informs cause and effect relationships between species and aquatic habitats to promote broader ecosystem understanding. A Bayesian Network was developed to synthesise the seasonal aquatic knowledge of a group of Gooniyandi Aboriginal language speakers, including fish species’ availability, condition and required habitat, and integrate it with hydrogeological understanding obtained from research undertaken in a stretch of the Fitzroy River, Western Australia. This river system, like most in northern Australia, is highly seasonal and entirely dependent upon groundwater for maintaining flow during prolonged dry seasons. We found that potential changes in river flow rates caused by future water resource development, such as groundwater extraction and surface water diversion, may have detrimental effects on the ability to catch the high value aquatic food species such as Barramundi and Sawfish, but also that species such as Black Bream may benefit. These findings result from changes in availability of habitats at times when Gooniyandi understanding shows they are important for providing aquatic resources in good condition. This study raises awareness of the potential outcomes of future water management and stimulates communication between indigenous people, the scientific community and water managers by developing a model of indigenous understanding from which to predict eco-hydrological change.

Application of scenario-neutral methods to quantify impacts of climate change on water resources in East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ascott, M.; Macdonald, D.; Lapworth, D.; Tindimugaya, C.

2017-12-01

Quantification of the impact of climate change on water resources is essential for future resource planning. Unfortunately, climate change impact studies in African regions are often hindered by the extent in variability in future rainfall predictions, which also diverge from current drying trends. To overcome this limitation, "scenario-neutral" methods have been developed which stress a hydrological system using a wide range of climate futures to build a "climate response surface". We developed a hydrological model and scenario-neutral framework to quantify climate change impacts on river flows in the Katonga catchment, Uganda. Using the lumped catchment model GR4J, an acceptable calibration to historic daily flows (1966 - 2010, NSE = 0.69) was achieved. Using a delta change approach, we then systematically changed rainfall and PET inputs to develop response surfaces for key metrics, developed with Ugandan water resources planners (e.g. Q5, Q95). Scenarios from the CMIP5 models for 2030s and 2050s were then overlain on the response surface. The CMIP5 scenarios show consistent increases in temperature but large variability in rainfall increases, which results in substantial variability in increases in river flows. The developed response surface covers a wide range of climate futures beyond the CMIP5 projections, and can help water resources planners understand the sensitivity of water resource systems to future changes. When future climate scenarios are available, these can be directly overlain on the response surface without the need to re-run the hydrological model. Further work will consider using scenario-neutral approaches in more complex, semi-distributed models (e.g. SWAT), and will consider land use and socioeconomic change.

Methodology to Analyse the actual and the future effect of water scarcity on the available water resources in Meguellil watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oueslati, I.; Lili-Chabaane, Z.; Shabou, M.; Zribi, M.; Ben Issa, N.; chakroun, H.; Galafassi, D.; Rathwell, K.; Hoff, H.; Pizzigalli, C.

2012-04-01

Scarcity often has its roots in water shortage, and it is in the arid and semiarid regions affected by droughts and wide climate variability, combined with population growth and economic development, that the problems of water scarcity are most acute. The Merguellil watershed, situated in the center of Tunisia, represents exactly this state of fact where the agriculture is the main consumer with about 80% of the total water resources because of the continuous increase and intensification of irrigated area. The surface water can satisfy a very low portion of this demand; consequently, the groundwater is overexploited. The irrigation sector is divided into public and private. While the public irrigated areas are well known, the private ones are not sufficiently controlled mainly the water volumes pumped from the aquifer. Therefore, a sustainable management of all available water resources and meeting as much as possible all water demands, is crucial. To analyze the actual and future water balance of the Merguellil watershed, and to identify critical trends and thresholds and effective solutions, a WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning system) application has been developed. It utilizes a constrained optimization algorithm to allocate water among competing demands in a basin. The year 2009 is considered as the reference one which represents the basic definition of the water system as it currently exists, and forms the foundation of all scenarios analysis. Three scenarios were compared to the reference one. The first combines between the reduction of 10% in precipitation, as it is forseen by the regional climate model RCA (driven by ECHAM5) that provides statistic data of precipitation until 2050, and the increase of 2% per year in irrigated area in the kairouan plain deduced from the land use maps dating from 1991/1992 to 2009/2010 obtained by multi dates remote sensing data. The second scenario is the application of a deficit irrigation that respects the yield reduction related to each existing crop. The third one tests the effect of the three hypotheses together on the water resources: reduction in precipitation, increase in irrigated area and deficit irrigation. Merguellil WEAP model demonstrates how different management options to face water shortage can be evaluated and compared for future climate, land use change and technology development scenarios.

South Asia river flow projections and their implications for water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathison, C.; Wiltshire, A. J.; Falloon, P.; Challinor, A. J.

2015-06-01

South Asia is a region with a large and rising population and a high dependance on industries sensitive to water resource such as agriculture. The climate is hugely variable with the region relying on both the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) and glaciers for its supply of fresh water. In recent years, changes in the ASM, fears over the rapid retreat of glaciers and the increasing demand for water resources for domestic and industrial use, have caused concern over the reliability of water resources both in the present day and future for this region. The climate of South Asia means it is one of the most irrigated agricultural regions in the world, therefore pressures on water resource affecting the availability of water for irrigation could adversely affect crop yields and therefore food production. In this paper we present the first 25 km resolution regional climate projections of river flow for the South Asia region. ERA-Interim, together with two global climate models (GCMs), which represent the present day processes, particularly the monsoon, reasonably well are downscaled using a regional climate model (RCM) for the periods; 1990-2006 for ERA-Interim and 1960-2100 for the two GCMs. The RCM river flow is routed using a river-routing model to allow analysis of present day and future river flows through comparison with river gauge observations, where available. In this analysis we compare the river flow rate for 12 gauges selected to represent the largest river basins for this region; Ganges, Indus and Brahmaputra basins and characterize the changing conditions from east to west across the Himalayan arc. Observations of precipitation and runoff in this region have large or unknown uncertainties, are short in length or are outside the simulation period, hindering model development and validation designed to improve understanding of the water cycle for this region. In the absence of robust observations for South Asia, a downscaled ERA-Interim RCM simulation provides a benchmark for comparison against the downscaled GCMs. On the basis that these simulations are among the highest resolution climate simulations available we examine how useful they are for understanding the changes in water resources for the South Asia region. In general the downscaled GCMs capture the seasonality of the river flows, with timing of maximum river flows broadly matching the available observations and the downscaled ERA-Interim simulation. Typically the RCM simulations over-estimate the maximum river flows compared to the observations probably due to a positive rainfall bias and a lack of abstraction in the model although comparison with the downscaled ERA-Interim simulation is more mixed with only a couple of the gauges showing a bias compared with the downscaled GCM runs. The simulations suggest an increasing trend in annual mean river flows for some of the river gauges in this analysis, in some cases almost doubling by the end of the century; this trend is generally masked by the large annual variability of river flows for this region. The future seasonality of river flows does not change with the future maximum river flow rates still occuring during the ASM period, with a magnitude in some cases, greater than the present day natural variability. Increases in river flow during peak flow periods means additional water resource for irrigation, the largest usage of water in this region, but also has implications in terms of inundation risk. Low flow rates also increase which is likely to be important at times of the year when water is historically more scarce. However these projected increases in resource from rivers could be more than countered by changes in demand due to reductions in the quantity and quality of water available from groundwater, increases in domestic use due to a rising population or expansion of other industries such as hydro-electric power generation.

Impact of future energy policy on water resources in Kazakhstan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivotti, Pedro; Karatayev, Marat; Sobral Mourão, Zenaida; Shah, Nilay; Clarke, Michèle; Konadu, D. Dennis

2017-04-01

As part of its commitment to become one of the top-30 developed countries in the world, Kazakhstan set out an ambitious target of increasing the share of renewables and alternative sources of energy in its power generation mix to 50% by 2050. This vision greatly contrasts with the current situation, with coal and natural gas power plants producing around 90% of total electricity in 2016. While this transition provides a unique opportunity to improve the sustainability of the national energy system, major natural resources challenges currently faced in the country should be taken into account. Particularly in the case of water resources management, the current system is characterised by significant losses, heavy reliance on irrigation for the agricultural sector, unevenly distributed surface water, vulnerability to climate change and variations in transboundary inflows, amongst other issues. In this context, this study aims to investigate the future availability of water resources to support food production and the transition to a new energy system. Given the challenges mentioned above, tackling this question requires an integrated analysis of the water-energy-food systems in Kazakhstan. This is done in three stages: (1) characterising the water supply and demand in the country; (2) establishing the linkages between water resources and activities in the power production and agricultural sectors; and (3) identifying potential conflicts at the nexus between water, energy and food, taking into account future energy policy scenarios, trends for food production and water resource use.

Influence of landscape heterogeneity on water available to tropical forests in an Amazonian catchment and implications for modeling drought response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Yilin; Leung, L. Ruby; Duan, Zhuoran; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Maxwell, Reed M.; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Tomasella, Javier

2017-08-01

The Amazon basin has experienced periodic droughts in the past, and intense and frequent droughts are predicted in the future. Landscape heterogeneity could play an important role in how tropical forests respond to drought by influencing water available to plants. Using the one-dimensional ACME Land Model and the three-dimensional ParFlow variably saturated flow model, numerical experiments were performed for a catchment in central Amazon to elucidate processes that influence water available for plant use and provide insights for improving Earth system models. Results from ParFlow show that topography has a dominant influence on groundwater table and runoff through lateral flow. Without any representations of lateral processes, ALM simulates very different seasonal variations in groundwater table and runoff compared to ParFlow even if it is able to reproduce the long-term spatial average groundwater table of ParFlow through simple parameter calibration. In the ParFlow simulations, even in the plateau with much deeper water table depth during the dry season in the drought year of 2005, plant transpiration is not water stressed as the soil saturation is still sufficient for the stomata to be fully open based on the empirical wilting formulation in the models. This finding is insensitive to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing and soil parameters, but the empirical wilting formulation is an important factor that should be addressed using observations and modeling of coupled plant hydraulics-soil hydrology processes in future studies. The results could be applicable to other catchments in the Amazon basin with similar seasonal variability and hydrologic regimes.

Role of snow and glacier melt in controlling river hydrology in Liddar watershed (western Himalaya) under current and future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeelani, G.; Feddema, Johannes J.; van der Veen, Cornelis J.; Stearns, Leigh

2012-12-01

Snowmelt and icemelt are believed to be important regulators of seasonal discharge of Himalayan rivers. To analyze the long term contribution of snowmelt and glacier/icemelt to river hydrology we apply a water budget model to simulate hydrology of the Liddar watershed in the western Himalaya, India for the 20th century (1901-2010) and future IPCC A1B climate change scenario. Long term (1901-2010) temperature and precipitation data in this region show a warming trend (0.08°C yr-1) and an increase in precipitation (0.28 mm yr-1), with a significant variability in seasonal trends. In particular, winter months have undergone the most warming, along with a decrease in precipitation rates; precipitation has increased throughout the spring. These trends have accelerated the melting and rapid disappearance of snow, causing a seasonal redistribution in the availability of water. Our model results show that about 60% of the annual runoff of the Liddar watershed is contributed from the snowmelt, while only 2% is contributed from glacier ice. The climate trend observed from the 1901 to 2010 time period and its impact on the availability of water will become significantly worse under the IPCC climate change scenarios. Our results suggest that there is a significant shift in the timing and quantity of water runoff in this region of the Himalayas due to snow distribution and melt. With greatly increased spring runoff and its reductions in summer potentially leading to reduced water availability for irrigation agriculture in summer.

A framework for modeling anthropogenic impacts on waterbird habitats: addressing future uncertainty in conservation planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matchett, Elliott L.; Fleskes, Joseph P.; Young, Charles A.; Purkey, David R.

2015-01-01

The amount and quality of natural resources available for terrestrial and aquatic wildlife habitats are expected to decrease throughout the world in areas that are intensively managed for urban and agricultural uses. Changes in climate and management of increasingly limited water supplies may further impact water resources essential for sustaining habitats. In this report, we document adapting a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system model for the Central Valley of California. We demonstrate using this adapted model (WEAP-CVwh) to evaluate impacts produced from plausible future scenarios on agricultural and wetland habitats used by waterbirds and other wildlife. Processed output from WEAP-CVwh indicated varying levels of impact caused by projected climate, urbanization, and water supply management in scenarios used to exemplify this approach. Among scenarios, the NCAR-CCSM3 A2 climate projection had a greater impact than the CNRM-CM3 B1 climate projection, whereas expansive urbanization had a greater impact than strategic urbanization, on annual availability of waterbird habitat. Scenarios including extensive rice-idling or substantial instream flow requirements on important water supply sources produced large impacts on annual availability of waterbird habitat. In the year corresponding with the greatest habitat reduction for each scenario, the scenario including instream flow requirements resulted in the greatest decrease in habitats throughout all months of the wintering period relative to other scenarios. This approach provides a new and useful tool for habitat conservation planning in the Central Valley and a model to guide similar research investigations aiming to inform conservation, management, and restoration of important wildlife habitats.

Simulation of Ground-Water Flow in the Irwin Basin Aquifer System, Fort Irwin National Training Center, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Densmore, Jill N.

2003-01-01

Ground-water pumping in the Irwin Basin at Fort Irwin National Training Center, California resulted in water-level declines of about 30 feet from 1941 to 1996. Since 1992, artificial recharge from wastewater-effluent infiltration and irrigation-return flow has stabilized water levels, but there is concern that future water demands associated with expansion of the base may cause a resumption of water-level declines. To address these concerns, a ground-water flow model of the Irwin Basin was developed to help better understand the aquifer system, assess the long-term availability and quality of ground water, and evaluate ground-water conditions owing to current pumping and to plan for future water needs at the base. Historical data show that ground-water-level declines in the Irwin Basin between 1941 and 1996, caused the formation of a pumping depression near the pumped wells, and that recharge from the wastewater-treatment facility and disposal area caused the formation of a recharge mound. There have been two periods of water-level recovery in the Irwin Basin since the development of ground water in this basin; these periods coincide with a period of decreased pumpage from the basin and a period of increased recharge of water imported from the Bicycle Basin beginning in 1967 and from the Langford Basin beginning in 1992. Since 1992, artificial recharge has exceeded pumpage in the Irwin Basin and has stabilized water-level declines. A two-layer ground-water flow model was developed to help better understand the aquifer system, assess the long-term availability and quality of ground water, and evaluate ground-water conditions owing to current pumping and to plan for future water needs at the base. Boundary conditions, hydraulic conductivity, altitude of the bottom of the layers, vertical conductance, storage coefficient, recharge, and discharge were determined using existing geohydrologic data. Rates and distribution of recharge and discharge were determined from existing data and estimated when unavailable. Results of predictive simulations indicate that in 50 years, if artificial recharge continues to exceed pumpage in Irwin Basin, water levels could rise as much as 65 feet beneath the pumping depression, and as much as 10 feet in the wastewater-treatment facility and disposal area. Particle-tracking simulations were used to determine the pathlines and the traveltimes of water high in dissolved solids into the main pumping area. The pathlines of particles from two areas with high dissolved-solids concentrations show that in 50 years water from these areas almost reaches the nearest pumped well.

A technique for estimating ground-water levels at sites in Rhode Island from observation-well data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Socolow, Roy S.; Frimpter, Michael H.; Turtora, Michael; Bell, Richard W.

1994-01-01

Estimates of future high, median, and low ground- water levels are needed for engineering and architectural design decisions and for appropriate selection of land uses. For example, the failure of individual underground sewage-disposal systems due to high ground-water levels can be prevented if accurate water-level estimates are available. Estimates of extreme or average conditions are needed because short duration preconstruction obser- vations are unlikely to be adequately represen- tative. Water-level records for 40 U.S. Geological Survey observation wells in Rhode Island were used to describe and interpret water-level fluctuations. The maximum annual range of water levels average about 6 feet in sand and gravel and 11 feet in till. These data were used to develop equations for estimating future high, median, and low water levels on the basis of any one measurement at a site and records of water levels at observation wells used as indexes. The estimating technique relies on several assumptions about temporal and spatial variations: (1) Water levels will vary in the future as they have in the past, (2) Water levels fluctuate seasonally (3) Ground-water fluctuations are dependent on site geology, and (4) Water levels throughout Rhode Island are subject to similar precipitation and climate. Comparison of 6,697 estimates of high, median, and low water levels (depth to water level exceeded 95, 50, and 5 percent of the time, respectively) with the actual measured levels exceeded 95, 50, and 5 percent of the time at 14 sites unaffected by pumping and unknown reasons, yielded mean squared errors ranging from 0.34 to 1.53 square feet, 0.30 to 1.22 square feet, and 0.32 to 2.55 square feet, respectively. (USGS)

Water Conservation as a Way to Lessen the Impact of New Construction at the Presidio of Monterey.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-06-01

and the laundry figure would be about 8 gpcd, rather than 10 gpcd, to reflect the use of off-post laundromats and the use of dry cleaning shops for...but not encugh to make a difference, although the post laundry or laundromat will continue to consume water. Also, mcst new clothes washers are water...and energy effi- cient so no new savings would be available. Future constructicn of laundromats should evaluate the type of washer being installed. 68

Stream Discharge and Evapotranspiration Responses to Climate Change and Their Associated Uncertainties in a Large Semi-Arid Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bassam, S.; Ren, J.

2017-12-01

Predicting future water availability in watersheds is very important for proper water resources management, especially in semi-arid regions with scarce water resources. Hydrological models have been considered as powerful tools in predicting future hydrological conditions in watershed systems in the past two decades. Streamflow and evapotranspiration are the two important components in watershed water balance estimation as the former is the most commonly-used indicator of the overall water budget estimation, and the latter is the second biggest component of water budget (biggest outflow from the system). One of the main concerns in watershed scale hydrological modeling is the uncertainties associated with model prediction, which could arise from errors in model parameters and input meteorological data, or errors in model representation of the physics of hydrological processes. Understanding and quantifying these uncertainties are vital to water resources managers for proper decision making based on model predictions. In this study, we evaluated the impacts of different climate change scenarios on the future stream discharge and evapotranspiration, and their associated uncertainties, throughout a large semi-arid basin using a stochastically-calibrated, physically-based, semi-distributed hydrological model. The results of this study could provide valuable insights in applying hydrological models in large scale watersheds, understanding the associated sensitivity and uncertainties in model parameters, and estimating the corresponding impacts on interested hydrological process variables under different climate change scenarios.

Consequences of declining snow accumulation for water balance of mid-latitude dry regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Lauenroth, William K.; Bradford, John B.

2012-01-01

Widespread documentation of positive winter temperature anomalies, declining snowpack and earlier snow melt in the Northern Hemisphere have raised concerns about the consequences for regional water resources as well as wildfire. A topic that has not been addressed with respect to declining snowpack is effects on ecosystem water balance. Changes in water balance dynamics will be particularly pronounced at low elevations of mid-latitude dry regions because these areas will be the first to be affected by declining snow as a result of rising temperatures. As a model system, we used simulation experiments to investigate big sagebrush ecosystems that dominate a large fraction of the semiarid western United States. Our results suggest that effects on future ecosystem water balance will increase along a climatic gradient from dry, warm and snow-poor to wet, cold and snow-rich. Beyond a threshold within this climatic gradient, predicted consequences for vegetation switched from no change to increasing transpiration. Responses were sensitive to uncertainties in climatic prediction; particularly, a shift of precipitation to the colder season could reduce impacts of a warmer and snow-poorer future, depending on the degree to which ecosystem phenology tracks precipitation changes. Our results suggest that big sagebrush and other similar semiarid ecosystems could decrease in viability or disappear in dry to medium areas and likely increase only in the snow-richest areas, i.e. higher elevations and higher latitudes. Unlike cold locations at high elevations or in the arctic, ecosystems at low elevations respond in a different and complex way to future conditions because of opposing effects of increasing water-limitation and a longer snow-free season. Outcomes of such nonlinear interactions for future ecosystems will likely include changes in plant composition and productivity, dynamics of water balance, and availability of water resources.

Preliminary Guidelines for Installation Product Line Land Management Suite (LMS) Product Developers

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-01-01

land use patterns might call a storm simulation model available as a CDF service to evaluate the ability of the pattern to maintain water quality ...Analysis GIS data Server Internal DIAS objects External DIAS objects External CDF services Fort Future DIAS Model GUI Figure 10. A Fort Future DIAS...31 iv ERDC/CERL TR-05-1 Are Programs that Analyze Data Being Developed as CDF Services

Assessment of climate change impacts on climate variables using probabilistic ensemble modeling and trend analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safavi, Hamid R.; Sajjadi, Sayed Mahdi; Raghibi, Vahid

2017-10-01

Water resources in snow-dependent regions have undergone significant changes due to climate change. Snow measurements in these regions have revealed alarming declines in snowfall over the past few years. The Zayandeh-Rud River in central Iran chiefly depends on winter falls as snow for supplying water from wet regions in high Zagrous Mountains to the downstream, (semi-)arid, low-lying lands. In this study, the historical records (baseline: 1971-2000) of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in the wet region were chosen to construct a probabilistic ensemble model using 15 GCMs in order to forecast future trends and changes while the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was utilized to project climate variables under two A2 and B1 scenarios to a future period (2015-2044). Since future snow water equivalent (SWE) forecasts by GCMs were not available for the study area, an artificial neural network (ANN) was implemented to build a relationship between climate variables and snow water equivalent for the baseline period to estimate future snowfall amounts. As a last step, homogeneity and trend tests were performed to evaluate the robustness of the data series and changes were examined to detect past and future variations. Results indicate different characteristics of the climate variables at upstream stations. A shift is observed in the type of precipitation from snow to rain as well as in its quantities across the subregions. The key role in these shifts and the subsequent side effects such as water losses is played by temperature.

Bidirectional Anticipation of Future Osmotic Challenges by Vasopressin Neurons.

PubMed

Mandelblat-Cerf, Yael; Kim, Angela; Burgess, Christian R; Subramanian, Siva; Tannous, Bakhos A; Lowell, Bradford B; Andermann, Mark L

2017-01-04

Ingestion of water and food are major hypo- and hyperosmotic challenges. To protect the body from osmotic stress, posterior pituitary-projecting, vasopressin-secreting neurons (VP pp neurons) counter osmotic perturbations by altering their release of vasopressin, which controls renal water excretion. Vasopressin levels begin to fall within minutes of water consumption, even prior to changes in blood osmolality. To ascertain the precise temporal dynamics by which water or food ingestion affect VP pp neuron activity, we directly recorded the spiking and calcium activity of genetically defined VP pp neurons. In states of elevated osmolality, water availability rapidly decreased VP pp neuron activity within seconds, beginning prior to water ingestion, upon presentation of water-predicting cues. In contrast, food availability following food restriction rapidly increased VP pp neuron activity within seconds, but only following feeding onset. These rapid and distinct changes in activity during drinking and feeding suggest diverse neural mechanisms underlying anticipatory regulation of VP pp neurons. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Value of Seasonal Fuzzy-based Inflow Prediction in the Jucar River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Macian-Sorribes, H.

2016-12-01

The development and application of climate services in Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) is said to add important benefits in terms of water use efficiency due to an increase ability to foresee future water availability. A method to evaluate the economic impact of these services is presented, based on the use of hydroeconomic modelling techniques (hydroeconomic simulation) to compare the net benefits from water use in the system with and without the inflow forecasting. The Jucar River Basin (Spain) has been used as case study. Operating rules currently applied in the basin were assessed using fuzzy rule-based (FRB) systems via a co-development process involving the system operators. These operating rules use as input variable the hydrological inflows in several sub-basins, which need to be foreseen by the system operators. The inflow forecasting mechanism to preview water availability in the irrigation season (May-September) relied on fuzzy regression in which future inflows were foreseen based on past inflows and rainfall in the basin. This approach was compared with the current use of the two past year inflows for projecting the future inflow. For each irrigation season, the previewed inflows were determined using both methods and their impact on the system operation assessed through a hydroeconomic DSS. Results show that the implementation of the fuzzy inflow forecasting system offers higher economic returns. Another advantage of the fuzzy approach regards to the uncertainty treatment using fuzzy numbers, which allow us to estimate the uncertainty range of the expected benefits. Consequently, we can use the fuzzy approach to estimate the uncertainty associated with both the prediction and the associated benefits.

Drought analysis and water resource availability using standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui-Mean, Foo; Yusop, Zulkifli; Yusof, Fadhilah

2018-03-01

Trend analysis for potential evapotranspiration (PET) and climatic water balance (CWB) is critical in identifying the wetness or dryness episodes with respect to the water surplus or deficit. The PET is computed based on the monthly average temperature for the entire Peninsular Malaysia using Thornthwaite parameterization. The trends and slope's magnitude for the PET and CWB were then investigated using Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and Thiel-Sen estimator. The 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) is applied to determine the drought episodes and the average recurrence interval are calculated based on the SPEI. The results indicate that most of the stations show an upward trend in annual and monthly PET while majority of the regions show an upward trend in annual CWB except for the Pahang state. The increasing trends detected in the CWB describe water is in excess especially during the northeast monsoons while the decreasing trends imply water insufficiency. The excess water is observed mostly in January especially in the west coast, east coast and southwest regions that suggest more water is available for crop requirement. The average recurrence interval for drought episodes is almost the same for the smaller severity with various time scale of SPEI and high probability of drought occurrence is observed for some regions. The findings are useful for policymakers and practitioners to improve water resources planning and management, in particular to minimise drought effects in the future. Future research shall address the influence of topography on drought behaviour using more meteorological stations and to include east Malaysia in the analysis.

Effect of water availability in opening containers of breeding site on Aedes aegypti life cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokachil, Najir; Yusoff, Nuraini; Saaid, Alif; Appandi, Najwa; Harun, Farhana

2017-11-01

The distribution of rainfall is one of the factors which contribute to the development of Aedes aegypti life cycle. The fluctuation of rainfall might influence the acceleration of Aedes aegypti growth by providing sufficient breeding sites. In this research, the availability of water in an opening container of the breeding site is considered as a significant variable which affects the distinct stages structure in mosquito life cycle which egg, larva, pupa, and adult. A stage-structured Lefkovitch matrix model was used by considering the quantity of water contains in an opening container and life cycle of Aedes aegypti. The maximum depth of water in the container was also taken into account in order to find the time duration of mosquito life cycle to complete. We found that the maximum depth of water availability in mosquito breeding site influenced the abundance of the mosquito population. Hence, the containers are filled with sufficient water be able to stand from hot temperature for several days before drying out might continue to provide mosquito breeding site. In the future, it is recommended to consider other factors which affect the quantity of water in mosquito breeding sites such as heavy rain and wind blows.

Blue water tradeoffs with ecosystems in a CO2-enriched climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mankin, J. S.; Smerdon, J. E.; Cook, B. I.; Williams, A. P.; Seager, R.

2017-12-01

Present and future freshwater availability and drought risks are physically tied to the competing responses of surface vegetation to increasing CO2, which includes radiative and plant physiological forcing, as well as their consequences for plant phenology, water use efficiency, and CO2 fertilization. Because Earth system models (ESMs) have increased their sophistication in representing the coupling among biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes at the land surface, projected linkages among ecosystem responses to CO2 and blue water (runoff) can be explored. A detailed analysis of the Western US demonstrates that CO2- and radiatively-induced vegetation growth drives projected decreases in soil moisture and runoff in the NCAR CESM LENS, creating a curious pattern of colocated 'greening' and 'drying.' Here we explore these responses at the global-scale and the consequences of such vegetation-driven drying on blue water availability for people. We present a simple metric that quantifies the tradeoff that occurs between ecosystems and blue water and link their occurrence to changes in daily-scale precipitation extremes, plant functional types, and changes in leaf areas. These results have implications for blue water availability for people and raise important questions about model representations of vegetation-water responses to high CO2.

Evaluation of measures to meet future supply demand gap in Chennai city, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lakshmanan, E.; Paul, N.

2016-12-01

Availability of water forever has daunted all the major cities of the world and the cities of India are no exception. Even with high annual average rainfall of 1200 mm the Chennai city has an availability of just 108 lpcd of water, which is much lower than 150 lpcd prescribed by the World Health Organisation. The water requirement presently is met mainly from five reservoirs and partly from groundwater pumping which has given rise to seawater intrusion. The objective of this study is to find effective measures for overcoming the chronic demand supply gap and to predict the results of such measures quantitatively by modelling with the Water Evaluation and Planning System(WEAP). The modelling of city's water demand and supply system was carried out using WEAP and calibration was done using PEST. The data required for this study was obtained from various sources as well as by field investigations. There has been a continuous decrease in the actual water supply even with high availability as predicted by the model. About 60 percent of the city's supplied water ends in sewage and after treatment is presently supplied to industries, on its reuse it is found to meet completely the city's demand alone. The modelled heavy rainfall scenario demonstrates an increase in the water availability up to 20 percent during the years of heavy rainfall. The rejuvenation of existing water bodies in the outskirts of Chennai will increase the water availability for agriculture by 60 percent and hence more groundwater can be pumped for city's water supply. With addition of a new desalination plant over the existing two, the city's water supply-demand gap can be reduced by about 80%. If all the measures are implemented the water availability will exceed the demand. Thus, the WEAP model was successfully used to suggest means for sustainable water management plans for the Chennai city.

Modelling raw water quality: development of a drinking water management tool.

PubMed

Kübeck, Ch; van Berk, W; Bergmann, A

2009-01-01

Ensuring future drinking water supply requires a tough management of groundwater resources. However, recent practices of economic resource control often does not involve aspects of the hydrogeochemical and geohydraulical groundwater system. In respect of analysing the available quantity and quality of future raw water, an effective resource management requires a full understanding of the hydrogeochemical and geohydraulical processes within the aquifer. For example, the knowledge of raw water quality development within the time helps to work out strategies of water treatment as well as planning finance resources. On the other hand, the effectiveness of planed measurements reducing the infiltration of harmful substances such as nitrate can be checked and optimized by using hydrogeochemical modelling. Thus, within the framework of the InnoNet program funded by Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology, a network of research institutes and water suppliers work in close cooperation developing a planning and management tool particularly oriented on water management problems. The tool involves an innovative material flux model that calculates the hydrogeochemical processes under consideration of the dynamics in agricultural land use. The program integrated graphical data evaluation is aligned on the needs of water suppliers.

Climate change and water security with a focus on the Arctic.

PubMed

Evengard, Birgitta; Berner, Jim; Brubaker, Michael; Mulvad, Gert; Revich, Boris

2011-01-01

Water is of fundamental importance for human life; access to water of good quality is of vital concern for mankind. Currently however, the situation is under severe pressure due to several stressors that have a clear impact on access to water. In the Arctic, climate change is having an impact on water availability by melting glaciers, decreasing seasonal rates of precipitation, increasing evapotranspiration, and drying lakes and rivers existing in permafrost grounds. Water quality is also being impacted as manmade pollutants stored in the environment are released, lowland areas are flooded with salty ocean water during storms, turbidity from permafrost-driven thaw and erosion is increased, and the growth or emergence of natural pollutants are increased. By 2030 it is estimated that the world will need to produce 50% more food and energy which means a continuous increase in demand for water. Decisionmakers will have to very clearly include life quality aspects of future generations in the work as impact of ongoing changes will be noticeable, in many cases, in the future. This article will focus on effects of climate-change on water security with an Arctic perspective giving some examples from different countries how arising problems are being addressed.

Climate change and water security with a focus on the Arctic

PubMed Central

Evengard, Birgitta; Berner, Jim; Brubaker, Michael; Mulvad, Gert; Revich, Boris

2011-01-01

Water is of fundamental importance for human life; access to water of good quality is of vital concern for mankind. Currently however, the situation is under severe pressure due to several stressors that have a clear impact on access to water. In the Arctic, climate change is having an impact on water availability by melting glaciers, decreasing seasonal rates of precipitation, increasing evapotranspiration, and drying lakes and rivers existing in permafrost grounds. Water quality is also being impacted as manmade pollutants stored in the environment are released, lowland areas are flooded with salty ocean water during storms, turbidity from permafrost-driven thaw and erosion is increased, and the growth or emergence of natural pollutants are increased. By 2030 it is estimated that the world will need to produce 50% more food and energy which means a continuous increase in demand for water. Decisionmakers will have to very clearly include life quality aspects of future generations in the work as impact of ongoing changes will be noticeable, in many cases, in the future. This article will focus on effects of climate-change on water security with an Arctic perspective giving some examples from different countries how arising problems are being addressed. PMID:22043217

Water availability predicts forest canopy height at the global scale.

PubMed

Klein, Tamir; Randin, Christophe; Körner, Christian

2015-12-01

The tendency of trees to grow taller with increasing water availability is common knowledge. Yet a robust, universal relationship between the spatial distribution of water availability and forest canopy height (H) is lacking. Here, we created a global water availability map by calculating an annual budget as the difference between precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) at a 1-km spatial resolution, and in turn correlated it with a global H map of the same resolution. Across forested areas over the globe, Hmean increased with P-PET, roughly: Hmean (m) = 19.3 + 0.077*(P-PET). Maximum forest canopy height also increased gradually from ~ 5 to ~ 50 m, saturating at ~ 45 m for P-PET > 500 mm. Forests were far from their maximum height potential in cold, boreal regions and in disturbed areas. The strong association between forest height and P-PET provides a useful tool when studying future forest dynamics under climate change, and in quantifying anthropogenic forest disturbance. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Hydrological Dynamics of Central America: Time-of-Emergence of the Global Warming Signal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imbach, P. A.; Georgiou, S.; Calderer, L.; Coto, A.; Nakaegawa, T.; Chou, S. C.; Lyra, A. A.; Hidalgo, H. G.; Ciais, P.

2016-12-01

Central America is among the world's most vulnerable regions to climate variability and change. Country economies are highly dependent on the agricultural sector and over 40 million people's rural livelihoods directly depend on the use of natural resources. Future climate scenarios show a drier outlook (higher temperatures and lower precipitation) over a region where rural livelihoods are already compromised by water availability and climate variability. Previous efforts to validate modelling of the regional hydrology have been based on high resolution (1 km2) equilibrium models (Imbach et al., 2010) or using dynamic models (Variable Infiltration Capacity) with coarse climate forcing (0.5°) (Hidalgo et al., 2013; Maurer et al., 2009). We present here: (i) validation of the hydrological outputs from high-resolution simulations (10 km2) of a dynamic vegetation model (Orchidee), using 7 different sets of model input forcing data, with monthly runoff observations from 182 catchments across Central America; (ii) the first assessments of the region's hydrological variability using the historical simulations (iii) an estimation of the time of emergence of the climate change signal (under the SRES emission scenarios) on the water balance. We found model performance to be comparable with that from studies in other world regions (Yang et al. 2016) when forced with high resolution precipitation data (monthly values at 5 km2, Funk et al. (2015)) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU 3.2, Harris et al. (2014)) dataset of meteorological parameters. Validation results showed a Pearson correlation coefficient ≈ 0.6, general underestimation of runoff of ≈ 60% and variability close to observed values (ratio of standard deviations of ≈ 0.7). Maps of historical runoff are presented to show areas where high runoff variability follows high mean annual runoff, with opposite trends over the Caribbean. Future scenarios show large areas where future maximum water availability will always fall below minus-one standard deviation of the historical values by mid-century. Additionally, our results highlight the time horizon left to develop adaptation strategies to cope with future reductions in water availability.

Life cycle water use for electricity generation: a review and harmonization of literature estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meldrum, J.; Nettles-Anderson, S.; Heath, G.; Macknick, J.

2013-03-01

This article provides consolidated estimates of water withdrawal and water consumption for the full life cycle of selected electricity generating technologies, which includes component manufacturing, fuel acquisition, processing, and transport, and power plant operation and decommissioning. Estimates were gathered through a broad search of publicly available sources, screened for quality and relevance, and harmonized for methodological differences. Published estimates vary substantially, due in part to differences in production pathways, in defined boundaries, and in performance parameters. Despite limitations to available data, we find that: water used for cooling of thermoelectric power plants dominates the life cycle water use in most cases; the coal, natural gas, and nuclear fuel cycles require substantial water per megawatt-hour in most cases; and, a substantial proportion of life cycle water use per megawatt-hour is required for the manufacturing and construction of concentrating solar, geothermal, photovoltaic, and wind power facilities. On the basis of the best available evidence for the evaluated technologies, total life cycle water use appears lowest for electricity generated by photovoltaics and wind, and highest for thermoelectric generation technologies. This report provides the foundation for conducting water use impact assessments of the power sector while also identifying gaps in data that could guide future research.

Industrial water supplies of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Samuel K.

1954-01-01

The availability of adequate supplies of water of suitable quality determines in large measure the potential for industrial development in any community. However, the pattern of availability of water for industrial use is not so generally recognized. It is the purpose of this paper to point out the more important factors affecting the distribution and quality of existing and potential sources of water with particular reference to industrial development. From a nation-wide standpoint our country is blessed with plenty of water. If the available water could be distributed completely in accordance with needs, it is probable that no part of the country would suffer from lack of water either now or in the foreseeable future. As nature has not dealt so providently however, or perhaps as man has not been able to cope with the vagaries of nature, we find ourselves beset with droughts and floods. Added to the natural deficiencies of nature are man-made difficulties such as lowered ground-water tables and salt-water encroachment of fresh water supplies resulting from overpumping of ground waters, pollution in all its forms, and wasteful use of water for many purposes. It becomes necessary, therefore, to study and evaluate our most important natural resource in order that we may use it more intelligently. This is particularly true in regard to continued industrial growth of our country.

Water use demand in the Crans-Montana-Sierre region (Switzerland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonriposi, M.; Reynard, E.

2012-04-01

Crans-Montana-Sierre is an Alpine touristic region located in the driest area of Switzerland (Rhone River Valley, Canton of Valais), with both winter (ski) and summer (e.g. golf) tourist activities. Climate change as well as societal and economic development will in future significantly modify the supply and consumption of water and, consequently, may fuel conflicts of interest. Within the framework of the MontanAqua project (www.montanaqua.ch), we are researching more sustainable water management options based on the co-ordination and adaptation of water demand to water availability under changing biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. This work intends to quantify current water uses in the area and consider future scenarios (around 2050). We have focused upon the temporal and spatial characteristics of resource demand, in order to estimate the spatial footprint of water use (drinking water, hydropower production, irrigation and artificial snowmaking), in terms of system, infrastructure, and organisation of supply. We have then quantified these as precisely as possible (at the monthly temporal scale and at the municipality spatial scale). When the quantity of water was not measurable for practical reasons or for lack of data, as for the case for irrigation or snowmaking, an alternative approach was applied. Instead of quantifying how much water was used, the stress was put on the water needs for irrigating agricultural land or on the optimal meteorological conditions necessary to produce artificial snow. A huge summer peak and a smaller winter peak characterize the current regional water consumption estimation. The summer peak is mainly caused by irrigation and secondly by drinking water demand. The winter peak is essentially due to drinking water and snowmaking. Other consumption peaks exist at the municipality scale but they cannot be observed at the regional scale. The results show a major variation in water demand between the 11 concerned municipalities and between the various uses. All this confirms the necessity of modelling the future demand of water, which would allow prediction of possible future use conflicts. In a second phase of the project, the collected data will be introduced into WEAP (the Water Evaluation And Planning system) model, in order to estimate the future water demand of the Crans-Montana-Sierre region. This hydrologic model is distinct from most similar models because of its ability to integrate climate and socio-economic scenarios (Hansen, 1994). Reference Hansen, E. 1994. WEAP - A system for tackling water resource problems. In Water Management Europe 1993/94: An Annual Review of the European Water and Wastewater Industry. Stockholm Environment Institute: Stockholm.

Optimizing conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater resources with stochastic dynamic programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidsen, Claus; Liu, Suxia; Mo, Xingguo; Rosbjerg, Dan; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

2014-05-01

Optimal management of conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater has been attempted with different algorithms in the literature. In this study, a hydro-economic modelling approach to optimize conjunctive use of scarce surface water and groundwater resources under uncertainty is presented. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach is used to minimize the basin-wide total costs arising from water allocations and water curtailments. Dynamic allocation problems with inclusion of groundwater resources proved to be more complex to solve with SDP than pure surface water allocation problems due to head-dependent pumping costs. These dynamic pumping costs strongly affect the total costs and can lead to non-convexity of the future cost function. The water user groups (agriculture, industry, domestic) are characterized by inelastic demands and fixed water allocation and water supply curtailment costs. As in traditional SDP approaches, one step-ahead sub-problems are solved to find the optimal management at any time knowing the inflow scenario and reservoir/aquifer storage levels. These non-linear sub-problems are solved using a genetic algorithm (GA) that minimizes the sum of the immediate and future costs for given surface water reservoir and groundwater aquifer end storages. The immediate cost is found by solving a simple linear allocation sub-problem, and the future costs are assessed by interpolation in the total cost matrix from the following time step. Total costs for all stages, reservoir states, and inflow scenarios are used as future costs to drive a forward moving simulation under uncertain water availability. The use of a GA to solve the sub-problems is computationally more costly than a traditional SDP approach with linearly interpolated future costs. However, in a two-reservoir system the future cost function would have to be represented by a set of planes, and strict convexity in both the surface water and groundwater dimension cannot be maintained. The optimization framework based on the GA is still computationally feasible and represents a clean and customizable method. The method has been applied to the Ziya River basin, China. The basin is located on the North China Plain and is subject to severe water scarcity, which includes surface water droughts and groundwater over-pumping. The head-dependent groundwater pumping costs will enable assessment of the long-term effects of increased electricity prices on the groundwater pumping. The coupled optimization framework is used to assess realistic alternative development scenarios for the basin. In particular the potential for using electricity pricing policies to reach sustainable groundwater pumping is investigated.

Understanding Water-Energy-Ecology Nexus from an Integrated Earth-Human System Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, H. Y.; Zhang, X.; Wan, W.; Zhuang, Y.; Hejazi, M. I.; Leung, L. R.

2017-12-01

Both Earth and human systems exert notable controls on streamflow and stream temperature that influence energy production and ecosystem health. An integrated water model representing river processes and reservoir regulations has been developed and coupled to a land surface model and an integrated assessment model of energy, land, water, and socioeconomics to investigate the energy-water-ecology nexus in the context of climate change and water management. Simulations driven by two climate change projections following the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 radiative forcing scenarios, with and without water management, are analyzed to evaluate the individual and combined effects of climate change and water management on streamflow and stream temperature in the U.S. The simulations revealed important impacts of climate change and water management on hydrological droughts. The simulations also revealed the dynamics of competition between changes in water demand and water availability in the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios that influence streamflow and stream temperature, with important consequences to thermoelectricity production and future survival of juvenile Salmon. The integrated water model is being implemented to the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME), a coupled Earth System Model, to enable future investigations of the energy-water-ecology nexus in the integrated Earth-Human system.

Using Bayesian methods to predict climate impacts on groundwater availability and agricultural production in Punjab, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, T. A.; Devineni, N.; Lall, U.

2015-12-01

Lasting success of the Green Revolution in Punjab, India relies on continued availability of local water resources. Supplying primarily rice and wheat for the rest of India, Punjab supports crop irrigation with a canal system and groundwater, which is vastly over-exploited. The detailed data required to physically model future impacts on water supplies agricultural production is not readily available for this region, therefore we use Bayesian methods to estimate hydrologic properties and irrigation requirements for an under-constrained mass balance model. Using measured values of historical precipitation, total canal water delivery, crop yield, and water table elevation, we present a method using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to solve for a distribution of values for each unknown parameter in a conceptual mass balance model. Due to heterogeneity across the state, and the resolution of input data, we estimate model parameters at the district-scale using spatial pooling. The resulting model is used to predict the impact of precipitation change scenarios on groundwater availability under multiple cropping options. Predicted groundwater declines vary across the state, suggesting that crop selection and water management strategies should be determined at a local scale. This computational method can be applied in data-scarce regions across the world, where water resource management is required to resolve competition between food security and available resources in a changing climate.

Water Quality Analysis Tool (WQAT) | Science Inventory | US ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The purpose of the Water Quality Analysis Tool (WQAT) software is to provide a means for analyzing and producing useful remotely sensed data products for an entire estuary, a particular point or area of interest (AOI or POI) in estuaries, or water bodies of interest where pre-processed and geographically gridded remotely sensed images are available. A graphical user interface (GUI), was created to enable the user to select and display imagery from a variety of remote sensing data sources. The user can select a date (or date range) and location to extract pixels from the remotely sensed imagery. The GUI is used to obtain all available pixel values (i.e. pixel from all available bands of all available satellites) for a given location on a given date and time. The resultant data set can be analyzed or saved to a file for future use. The WQAT software provides users with a way to establish algorithms between remote sensing reflectance (Rrs) and any available in situ parameters, as well as statistical and regression analysis. The combined data sets can be used to improve water quality research and studies. Satellites provide spatially synoptic data at high frequency (daily to weekly). These characteristics are desirable for supplementing existing water quality observations and for providing information for large aquatic ecosystems that are historically under-sampled by field programs. Thus, the Water Quality Assessment Tool (WQAT) software tool was developed to suppo

Modeling impacts of climate change on freshwater availability in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faramarzi, Monireh; Abbaspour, Karim C.; Ashraf Vaghefi, Saeid; Farzaneh, Mohammad Reza; Zehnder, Alexander J. B.; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Yang, Hong

2013-02-01

SummaryThis study analyzes the impact of climate change on freshwater availability in Africa at the subbasin level for the period of 2020-2040. Future climate projections from five global circulation models (GCMs) under the four IPCC emission scenarios were fed into an existing SWAT hydrological model to project the impact on different components of water resources across the African continent. The GCMs have been downscaled based on observed data of Climate Research Unit to represent local climate conditions at 0.5° grid spatial resolution. The results show that for Africa as a whole, the mean total quantity of water resources is likely to increase. For individual subbasins and countries, variations are substantial. Although uncertainties are high in the simulated results, we found that in many regions/countries, most of the climate scenarios projected the same direction of changes in water resources, suggesting a relatively high confidence in the projections. The assessment of the number of dry days and the frequency of their occurrences suggests an increase in the drought events and their duration in the future. Overall, the dry regions have higher uncertainties than the wet regions in the projected impacts on water resources. This poses additional challenge to the agriculture in dry regions where water shortage is already severe while irrigation is expected to become more important to stabilize and increase food production.

Hydrogeology, hydrologic effects of development, and simulation of groundwater flow in the Borrego Valley, San Diego County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faunt, Claudia C.; Stamos, Christina L.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Wright, Michael T.; Burgess, Matthew K.; Sneed, Michelle; Brandt, Justin; Martin, Peter; Coes, Alissa L.

2015-11-24

This report documents and presents (1) an analysis of the conceptual model, (2) a description of the hydrologic features, (3) a compilation and analysis of water-quality data, (4) the measurement and analysis of land subsidence by using geophysical and remote sensing techniques, (5) the development and calibration of a two-dimensional borehole-groundwater-flow model to estimate aquifer hydraulic conductivities, (6) the development and calibration of a three-dimensional (3-D) integrated hydrologic flow model, (7) a water-availability analysis with respect to current climate variability and land use, and (8) potential future management scenarios. The integrated hydrologic model, referred to here as the “Borrego Valley Hydrologic Model” (BVHM), is a tool that can provide results with the accuracy needed for making water-management decisions, although potential future refinements and enhancements could further improve the level of spatial and temporal resolution and model accuracy. Because the model incorporates time-varying inflows and outflows, this tool can be used to evaluate the effects of temporal changes in recharge and pumping and to compare the relative effects of different water-management scenarios on the aquifer system. Overall, the development of the hydrogeologic and hydrologic models, data networks, and hydrologic analysis provides a basis for assessing surface and groundwater availability and potential water-resource management guidelines.

76 FR 13401 - Environmental Impact Statements; Notice of Availability

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-11

... Mine Pits, Haul Roads, Water Management Structures, and Overburden Disposal Areas, Implementation..., Final EIS, TVA, KY, Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), To Address the... Activities, Proposal to Support and Conduct Current, Emerging, and Future Training Activities, Implementation...

The Benefits of Past and Current Regional Hydroclimate Projects to the Third Pole Environment (TPE) Water and Energy Exchanges Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benedict, Sam; van Oevelen, Peter

2014-05-01

To improve understanding of the various processes at work on spatial and temporal scales from regional to global the Regional Hydroclimate Projects (RHP's) are established as part of the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX)Project to link the regional observations and process understanding to the global scale. This is done through exchange of observations, data, modeling, transferability studies etc. In this presentation the series of RHP's that were underway over North and South America, Europe and Asia continuously from the early 1990's up to the present will be examined, the reasons they were established, how they evolved and how they are evolving or are likely to evolve in the future, with an emphasis on where they can and should benefit similar work proposed for the TPE. The results will be presented in the context of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Grand Challenge related to the development of a water strategy that addresses the issue of past and future changes in Water, in general, and the GEWEX science question on global water resource systems, in particular. This material will address issues associated with how changes in land surface and hydrology influence past and future changes in water availability and security, how new observations lead to improvements in water management and how models become better in global and regional climate predictions and projections of precipitation and how these outcomes relate to the TPE Water and Energy Exchanges Studies.

How much water do we need for irrigation under Climate Change in the Mediterranean?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fader, Marianela; Alberte, Bondeau; Wolfgang, Cramer; Simon, Decock; Sinan, Shi

2014-05-01

Anthropogenic climate change will very likely alter the hydrological system of already water-limited agricultural landscapes around the Mediterranean. This includes the need for, as well as the availability of irrigation water. On top of that Mediterranean agroecosystems are very likely to be under strong pressure in the near future through changes in consumer demands and diets, increasing urbanization, demographic change, and new markets for agricultural exportation. As a first step to assess the water demand of the agricultural sector, we use an ecohydrological model (the Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed land model, LPJmL) to estimate current and future irrigation water requirements of this region, considering various climate and socio-economic scenarios. LPJmL is a process-based, agricultural and water balance model, where plant growth is ecophysiologically coupled with hydrological variables. For these simulations, the model was adapted to the Mediterranean region in terms of agrosystems as well as crop parameters, and a sensitivity analysis for the irrigation system efficiency was performed. Patterns of current irrigation water requirements differ strongly spatially within the Mediterranean region depending mainly on potential evapotranspiration, the combination of crops cultivated and the extension of irrigated areas. The simulations for the future indicate that the Mediterranean may need considerable additional amounts of irrigation water. However, the regional patterns differ strongly depending on changes in length of growing periods, changes in transpirational rate (temperature and precipitation change, CO2-fertilization), and the consideration of potential improvements in irrigation system efficiency.

Does the Limpopo River Basin have sufficient water for massive irrigation development in the plains of Mozambique?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Zaag, Pieter; Juizo, Dinis; Vilanculos, Agostinho; Bolding, Alex; Uiterweer, Nynke Post

This paper verifies whether the water resources of the transboundary Limpopo River Basin are sufficient for the planned massive irrigation developments in the Mozambique part of this basin, namely 73,000 ha, in addition to existing irrigation (estimated at 9400 ha), and natural growth of common use irrigation (4000 ha). This development includes the expansion of sugar cane production for the production of ethanol as a biofuel. Total additional water requirements may amount to 1.3 × 10 9 m 3/a or more. A simple river basin simulation model was constructed in order to assess different irrigation development scenarios, and at two storage capacities of the existing Massingir dam. Many uncertainties surround current and future water availability in the Lower Limpopo River Basin. Discharge measurements are incomplete and sometimes inconsistent, while upstream developments during the last 25 years have been dramatic and future trends are unknown. In Mozambique it is not precisely known how much water is currently consumed, especially by the many small-scale users of surface and shallow alluvial groundwater. Future impacts of climate change increase existing uncertainties. Model simulations indicate that the Limpopo River does not carry sufficient water for all planned irrigation. A maximum of approx. 58,000 ha of irrigated agriculture can be sustained in the Mozambican part of the basin. This figure assumes that Massingir will be operated at increased reservoir capacity, and implies that only about 44,000 ha of new irrigation can be developed, which is 60% of the envisaged developments. Any additional water use would certainly impact downstream users and thus create tensions. Some time will elapse before 44,000 ha of new irrigated land will have been developed. This time could be used to improve monitoring networks to decrease current uncertainties. Meanwhile the four riparian Limpopo States are preparing a joint river basin study. In this study a methodology could be developed to estimate and safeguard water availability for those users who under the law do not need registration - but who do need water.

Current and future groundwater withdrawals: Effects, management and energy policy options for a semi-arid Indian watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sishodia, Rajendra P.; Shukla, Sanjay; Graham, Wendy D.; Wani, Suhas P.; Jones, James W.; Heaney, James

2017-12-01

Effects of future expansion/intensification of irrigated agriculture on groundwater and surface water levels and availability in a semi-arid watershed were evaluated using an integrated hydrologic model (MIKE SHE/MIKE 11) in conjunction with biophysical measurements. Improved water use efficiency, water storage, and energy policy options were evaluated for their ability to sustain the future (2035) increased groundwater withdrawals. Three future withdrawal scenarios (low = 20, medium = 30, high = 50 wells/100 km2/year) based on the historical rate of growth of irrigation wells were formulated. While well drying from falling groundwater levels was limited to drought and consecutive below average rainfall years, under the current (2015) withdrawals, significant increases in frequency and duration (17-97 days/year) of well drying along with 13-26% (19-37 mm) reductions in surface flows were predicted under the future withdrawals. Higher (27-108%) energy demands of existing irrigation pumps due to declining groundwater levels and reduced hydroelectric generation due to decreased surface flows would create a vicious water-food-energy nexus in the future. Crop failure, one of the main causes of farmers' emotional distress and death in the region, is predicted to exacerbate under the future withdrawal scenarios. Shift to negative net recharge (-63 mm) and early and prolonged drying of wells under the high scenario will reduce the groundwater availability and negatively affect crop production in more than 60% and 90% of cropped areas in the Rabi (November-February) and summer (March-May) seasons, respectively during a drought year. Individual and combined demand (drip irrigation and reduced farm electricity subsidy) and supply (water storage) management options improved groundwater levels and reduced well drying by 55-97 days/year compared to business-as-usual management under the high scenario. The combined management (50% drip conversion, 50% reduction in subsidy, and enhanced water storage) mitigated well drying even during drought and consecutive below average rainfall years under the high scenario. A conservative economic evaluation for management options under the high scenario showed increases in crop production and per farmer annual profits by 987-1397 during a drought year (average household income = 1520/year). A scale-up of results showed that diverting 50% state power subsidy (6 billion for 3-6 years) can almost entirely fund the conversion to drip irrigation (4.2 billion) and water storage structures (2.9 billion) and help meet the water supply demand of a 50% increase in irrigated area under the high scenario. Converting flood to drip irrigation in 50% of irrigated area under the high scenario can reduce the electric energy consumption (7 × 106Mwh/year) and carbon footprint (6000 Mt/year) of groundwater irrigation by 24% in the state. Management options considered can potentially create a sustainable water-food-energy nexus in the larger semi-arid hard rock region. Reducing the power subsidy will require a strong political will since it has been used as a tool to win the elections in India. Considering future agricultural intensification, timely interventions are needed to ensure the livelihood and well-being of millions of small- and medium-scale farmers that rely on low storage, hard rock aquifers in the semi-arid regions of the world.

Estimating the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower and Power Marketing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sale, Michael J; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Uria Martinez, Rocio

The U.S. Department of Energy is currently preparing an assessment of the effects of climate change on federal hydropower, as directed by Congress in Section 9505 of the Secure Water Act of 2009 (P.L. 111-11). This paper describes the assessment approach being used in a Report to Congress currently being prepared by Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The 9505 assessment will examine climate change effects on water available for hydropower operations and the future power supplies marketed from federal hydropower projects. It will also include recommendations from the Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs) on potential changes in operation or contracting practices thatmore » could address these effects and risks of climate change. Potential adaption and mitigation strategies will also be identified. Federal hydropower comprises approximately half of the U.S. hydropower portfolio. The results from the 9505 assessment will promote better understanding among federal dam owners/operators of the sensitivity of their facilities to water availability, and it will provide a basis for planning future actions that will enable adaptation to climate variability and change. The end-users of information are Congressional members, their staff, the PMAs and their customers, federal dam owners/operators, and the DOE Water Power Program.« less

Earth-Science Research for Addressing the Water-Energy Nexus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Healy, R. W.; Alley, W. M.; Engle, M.; McMahon, P. B.; Bales, J. D.

2013-12-01

In the coming decades, the United States will face two significant and sometimes competing challenges: preserving sustainable supplies of fresh water for humans and ecosystems, and ensuring available sources of energy. This presentation provides an overview of the earth-science data collection and research needed to address these challenges. Uncertainty limits our understanding of many aspects of the water-energy nexus. These aspects include availability of water, water requirements for energy development, energy requirements for treating and delivering fresh water, effects of emerging energy development technologies on water quality and quantity, and effects of future climates and land use on water and energy needs. Uncertainties can be reduced with an integrated approach that includes assessments of water availability and energy resources; monitoring of surface water and groundwater quantity and quality, water use, and energy use; research on impacts of energy waste streams, hydraulic fracturing, and other fuel-extraction processes on water quality; and research on the viability and environmental footprint of new technologies such as carbon capture and sequestration and conversion of cellulosic material to ethanol. Planning for water and energy development requires consideration of factors such as economics, population trends, human health, and societal values; however, sound resource management must be grounded on a clear understanding of the earth-science aspects of the water-energy nexus. Information gained from an earth-science data-collection and research program can improve our understanding of water and energy issues and lay the ground work for informed resource management.

Hydrology and water law: what is their future common ground?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Piper, Arthur M.; Thomas, Harold E.

1957-01-01

We live in an age of social and economic evolution--evolution so deep reaching and rapid it constitutes ad revolution in numerous fields of human concern. Long-standing concepts of what is appropriate and orderly face drastic modification if they are to survive. To this situation the principles of applied hydrology and the tenets of water law are no exceptions. Their common ground, incomplete in the past, becomes tenuous when projected into the future. To hydrologists it is common knowledge that the Nation has some trouble spots tin water supply, occasioned by burgeoning population, by standards of living that seem luxurious to other peoples if not to us, and by tremendously dynamic industry whose voracious thirst for water seems insatiable. Seldom is the "trouble" a mere lack of water in a quantity sufficient to serve all real needs; rather, water usually is available only part of the time, at greater-than-customary cost, or under competition among several potential uses. We can expect only that such spots will increase in number and in geographic reach.

Impacts of Human Induced Nitrogen Deposition on Ecosystem Carbon Sequestration and Water Balance in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, M.; Yang, D.; Tang, J.; Lei, H.

2017-12-01

Enhanced plant biomass accumulation in response to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration could dampen the future rate of increase in CO2 levels and associated climate warming. However, many experiments around the world reported that nitrogen availability could limit the sustainability of the ecosystems' response to elevated CO2. In the recent 20 years, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, primarily from fossil fuel combustion, has increased sharply about 25% in China and meanwhile, China has the highest carbon emission in the world, implying a large opportunity to increase vegetation greenness and ecosystem carbon sequestration. Moreover, the water balance of the ecosystem will also change. However, in the future, the trajectory of increasing nitrogen deposition from fossil fuel use is to be controlled by the government policy that shapes the energy and industrial structure. Therefore, the historical and future trajectories of nitrogen deposition are likely very different, and it is imperative to understand how changes in nitrogen deposition will impact the ecosystem carbon sequestration and water balance in China. We here use the Community Land Model (CLM 4.5) to analyze how the change of nitrogen deposition has influenced and will influence the ecosystem carbon and water cycle in China at a high spatial resolution (0.1 degree). We address the following questions: 1) what is the contribution of the nitrogen deposition on historical vegetation greenness? 2) How does the change of nitrogen deposition affect the carbon sequestration? 3) What is its influence to water balance? And 4) how different will be the influence of the nitrogen deposition on ecosystem carbon and water cycling in the future?

Water for the cities - The outlook

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schneider, William Joseph; Spieker, Andrew Maute

1969-01-01

Rapid expansion of urban areas, particularly in the large metropolitan complexes of the United States, is placing urban political entities in ever closer juxtaposition to each other. The large demand for water for each entity is resulting in competition for available sources and is rapidly reaching critical proportions. Increasing awareness of the role of water in our society further complicates this competition. Pollution abatement, recreation, wildlife conservation, and aesthetics are demands now recognized by both rural and urban areas. Future development of water resources must consider regional demands and resources. Only in this way can our reasonably abundant water resources meet the severe demands imposed by our rapidly expanding urban areas.

Improving models to assess impacts of climate change on Mediterranean water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rocha, João; Carvalho Santos, Cláudia; Keizer, Jan Jacob; Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro

2016-04-01

In recent decades, water availability for human consumption has faced major constraints due to increasing pollution and reduced water availability. Water resources availability can gain additional stresses and pressures in the context of potential climate change scenarios. For the last decades, the climate change paradigm has been the scope of many researchers and the focus of decision makers, policies and environmental/climate legislation. Decision-makers face a wide range of constrains, as they are forced to define new strategies that merge planning, management and climate change adaptations. In turn, decision-makers must create integrated strategies aiming at the sustainable use of resources. There are multiple uncertainties associated with climate change impact assessment and water resources. Typically, most studies have dealt with uncertainties in emission scenarios and resulting socio-economic conditions, including land-use and water use. Less frequently, studies have address the disparities between the future climates generated by climate models for the same greenhouse gas concentrations; and the uncertainties related with the limited knowledge of how watersheds work, which also limits the capacity to simulate them with models. Therefore, the objective of this study is to apply the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model to a catchment in Alentejo, southern Portugal; and to evaluate the uncertainty associated both to the calibration of hydrological models and the use of different climate change scenarios and models (a combination of 4 GCM (General Circulation Models) and 1 RCM (Regional Circulation Models) for the scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The Alentejo region is highly vulnerable to the effects of potential climate changes with particular focus on water resources availability, despite several reservoirs used for freshwater supply and agriculture irrigation (e.g. the Alqueva reservoir - the largest artificial lake of the Iberian Peninsula). Here the SWAT2012 model was applied to the catchment of Monte Novo and Vigia. The Monte Novo and Vigia reservoirs were selected due to their importance for the district of Évora, respectively for urban water supply and irrigation. The catchment is a multipurpose reservoir system that covers an area of about 81473 ha and drains into the Alqueva reservoir (25.000 ha). The SWAT2012 model was run for 1973-2012. The calibration routines were conducted on a monthly basis using the SWATCUP. The calibration performance rating is expressed by: NSE 0.89, bR² 0.89, Pbias 7.29 (Vigia) and NSE 0.84, bR² 0.83, Pbias 6.29 (Monte Novo). Expected results are a generalized decrease of water availability in the basin, more intense under the scenario RCP 8.5. However the uncertainty related to the use of different climate change models show different outcomes, which may be considered for the strategies to be adopted. We will take advantage of SWAT's automatic calibration capacities to explore how multiple interpretations of present-day hydrological processes could lead to different outputs in future climate scenarios, and compare this uncertainty with other sources of uncertainty related with future scenarios or different outputs from climate models.

A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, Stephen; Andrews, Alida; Joosten, Kent; Watts, Kevin

2017-01-01

The surface of Mars once had abundant water flowing on its surface, but now there is a general perception that this surface is completely dry. Several lines of research have shown that there are sources of potentially large quantities of water at many locations on the surface, including regions considered as candidates for future human missions. Traditionally, system designs for these human missions are constrained to tightly recycle water and oxygen, and current resource utilization strategies involve ascent vehicle oxidizer production only. But the assumption of relatively abundant extant water may change this. Several scenarios were constructed to evaluate water requirements for human Mars expeditions to assess the impact to system design if locally produced water is available. Specifically, we have assessed water resources needed for 1) ascent vehicle oxidizer and fuel production, 2) open-loop water and oxygen life support requirements along with more robust usage scenarios, and 3) crew radiation protection augmentation. In this assessment, production techniques and the associated chemistry to transform Martian water and atmosphere into these useful commodities are identified, but production mass and power requirements are left to future analyses. The figure below illustrates the type of water need assessment performed and that will be discussed. There have been several sources of feedstock material discussed in recent literature that could be used to produce these quantities of water. This paper will focus on Mars surface features that resemble glacier-like forms on Earth. Several lines of evidence indicate that some of these features are in fact buried ice, likely remnants from an earlier ice age on Mars. This paper examines techniques and hardware systems used in the polar regions of Earth to access this buried ice and withdraw water from it. These techniques and systems will be described to illustrate options available. A technique known as a Rodriguez Well is assessed as a likely method for extracting water from these bodies of ice. The figure below is a sample of results from this assessment that will be discussed.

The Northeastern United States Energy-Water Nexus: Climate Change Impacts and Alternative Water Management Strategies for the Power Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miara, A.; Macknick, J.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Cohen, S. M.; Rosenzweig, B.

2014-12-01

The Northeastern United States (NE) relies heavily on thermoelectric power plants (90% of total capacity) to provide electricity to more than 70 million people. This region's power plants require consistent, large volumes of water at sufficiently cold temperatures to generate electricity efficiently, and withdraw approximately 10.5 trillion gallons of water annually. Previous findings indicate that assessments of future electricity pathways must account for water availability, water temperature and the changing climate, as changes in these conditions may limit operational efficiency in the future. To account for such electric system vulnerabilities, we have created a link between an electricity system capacity expansion model (ReEDS) and a hydrologic model that is coupled to a power plant simulation model (FrAMES-TP2M) that allows for a new approach to analyze electricity system development, performance, and environmental impacts. Together, these coupled tools allow us to estimate electricity development and operations in the context of a changing climate and impacts on the seasonal spatial and temporal variability of water resources, downstream thermal effluents that cause plant-to-plant interferences and harm aquatic habitat, economic costs of water conservation methods and associated carbon emissions. In this study, we test and compare a business-as-usual strategy with three alternative water management scenarios that include changes in cooling technologies and water sources utilized for the years 2014-2050. Results of these experiments can provide useful insight into the feasibility of the electricity expansion scenarios in terms of associated water use and thermal impacts, carbon emissions, the cost of generating electricity, and also highlight the importance of accounting for water resources in future power sector planning and performance assessments.

A multi-site reconstruction algorithm for bottom-up vulnerability assessment of water resource systems to changing streamflow conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazemi, A.; Zaerpour, M.

2016-12-01

Current paradigm for assessing the vulnerability of water resource systems to changing streamflow conditions often involves a cascade application of climate and hydrological models to project the future states of streamflow regime, entering to a given water resource system. It is widely warned, however, that the overall uncertainty in this "top-down" modeling enterprise can be large due to the limitations in representing natural and anthropogenic processes that affect future streamflow variability and change. To address this, various types of stress-tests are suggested to assess the vulnerability of water resources systems under a wide range of possible changes in streamflow conditions. The scope of such "bottom-up" assessments can go well beyond top-down projections and therefore provide a basis for monitoring different response modes, under which water resource systems become vulnerable. Despite methodological differences, all bottom-up assessments are equipped with a systematic sampling procedure, with which different possibilities for future climate and/or streamflow conditions can be realized. Regardless of recent developments, currently available streamflow sampling algorithms are still limited, particularly in regional contexts, for which accurate representation of spatiotemporal dependencies in streamflow regime are of major importance. In this presentation, we introduce a new development that enables handling temporal and spatial dependencies in regional streamflow regimes through a unified stochastic reconstruction algorithm. We demonstrate the application of this algorithm accross various Canadian regions. By considering a real-world regional water resources system, we show how the new multi-site reconstruction algorithm can extend the practical utility of bottom-up vulnerability assessment and improve quantifying the associated risk in natural and anthropogenic water systems under unknown future conditions.

Simulating climate change and socio-economic change impacts on flows and water quality in the Mahanadi River system, India.

PubMed

Jin, Li; Whitehead, Paul G; Rodda, Harvey; Macadam, Ian; Sarkar, Sananda

2018-10-01

Delta systems formed by the deposition of sediments at the mouths of large catchments are vulnerable to sea level rise and other climate change impacts. Deltas often have some of the highest population densities in the world and the Mahanadi Delta in India is one of these, with a population of 39 million. The Mahanadi River is a major river in East Central India and flows through Chattisgarh and Orissa states before discharging into the Bay of Bengal. This study uses an Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) to simulate flow dynamics and water quality (nitrogen and phosphorus) and to analyze the impacts of climate change and socio-economic drivers in the Mahanadi River system. Future flows affected by large population growth, effluent discharge increases and changes in irrigation water demand from changing land uses are assessed under shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Model results indicate a significant increase in monsoon flows under the future climates at 2050s (2041-2060) and 2090s (2079-2098) which greatly enhances flood potential. The water availability under low flow conditions will be worsened because of increased water demand from population growth and increased irrigation in the future. Decreased concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus are expected due to increased flow hence dilution. Socio-economic scenarios have a significant impact on water quality but less impact on the river flow. For example, higher population growth, increased sewage treatment discharges, land use change and enhanced atmospheric deposition would result in the deterioration of water quality, while the upgrade of the sewage treatment works lead to improved water quality. In summary, socio-economic scenarios would change future water quality of the Mahanadi River and alter nutrient fluxes transported into the delta region. This study has serious implications for people's livelihoods in the deltaic area and could impact coastal and Bay of Bengal water ecology. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Compounding Impacts of Climate Change and Increased Human Water Withdrawal on Urmia Lake Water Availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alborzi, A.; Moftakhari, H.; Azaranfar, A.; Mallakpour, I.; Ashraf, B.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

In recent decades, climate change and increase in human water withdrawal, combined, have caused ecological degradation in several terminal lakes worldwide. Among them, the shallow and hyper-saline Urmia Lake in Iran has experienced about 6 meters drawdown in lake level and 80% reduction in surface area. Here, we assess the imposed stress on Urmia Basin's water availability and Lake's ecological condition in response to coupled climate change and human-induced water withdrawal. A generalized river basin decision support system model consisting network flow is developed to simulate the basin-lake interactions under a wide range of scenarios. This model explicitly includes water management infrastructure, reservoirs, and irrigation and municipal water use. Studied scenarios represent a wide range of historic climate and water use scenarios including a historical baseline, future increase in water demand, and also improved water efficiency. In this presentation, we show the lake's water level, as a measure of lake's ecological health, under the compounding effects of the climate condition (top-down) and water use (bottom-up) scenarios. This method illustrates what combinations lead to failure in meeting the lake's ecological level.

An Assessment of Regional Water Resources and Agricultural Sustainability in the Mississippi River Alluvial Aquifer System of Mississippi and Arkansas Under Current and Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigby, J.; Reba, M.

2011-12-01

The Lower Mississippi River Alluvial Plain is a highly productive agricultural region for rice, soy beans, and cotton that depends heavily on irrigation. Development of the Mississippi River Alluvial Aquifer (MRAA), one of the more prolific agricultural aquifers in the country, has traditionally been the primary source for irrigation in the region yielding over 1,100 Mgal/day to irrigation wells. Increasingly, the realities of changing climate and rapidly declining water tables have highlighted the necessity for new water management practices. Tail-water recovery and reuse is a rapidly expanding practice due in part to the efforts and cost-sharing of the NRCS, but regional studies of the potential for such practices to alleviate groundwater mining under current and future climate are lacking. While regional studies of aquifer geology have long been available, including assessments of regional groundwater flow, much about the aquifer is still not well understood including controls on recharge rates, a crucial component of water management design. We review the trends in regional availability of surface and groundwater resources, their current status, and the effects of recent changes in management practices on groundwater decline in Mississippi and Arkansas. Global and regional climate projections are used to assess scenarios of sustainable aquifer use under current land use and management along with the potential for more widely practiced surface water capture and reuse to alleviate groundwater decline. Finally, we highlight crucial knowledge gaps and challenges associated with the development of water management practices for sustainable agricultural use in the region.

The limit of irrigation adaption due to the inter-crop conflict of water use under changing climate and landuse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okada, M.; Iizumi, T.; Sakamoto, T.; Kotoku, M.; Sakurai, G.; Nishimori, M.

2017-12-01

Replacing rainfed cropping system by irrigated one is assumed to be an effective measure for climate change adaptation in agriculture. However, in many agricultural impact assessments, future irrigation scenarios are externally given and do not consider variations in the availability of irrigation water under changing climate and land use. Therefore, we assess the potential effects of adaption measure expanding irrigated area under climate change by using a large-scale crop-river coupled model, CROVER [Okada et al. 2015, JAMES]. The CROVER model simulates the large-scale terrestrial hydrological cycle and crop growth depending on climate, soil properties, landuse, crop cultivation management, socio-economic water demand, and reservoir operation management. The bias-corrected GCMs outputs under the RCP 8.5 scenario were used. The future expansion of irrigation area was estimated by using the extrapolation method based on the historical change in irrigated and rainfed areas. As the results, the irrigation adaptation has only a limited effect on the rice production in East Asia due to the conflict of water use for irrigation with the other crops, whose farmlands require unsustainable water extraction with the excessively expanding irrigated area. In contrast, the irrigation adaptation benefits maize production in Europe due to the little conflict of water use for irrigation. Our findings suggest the importance of simulating the river water availability and crop production in a single model for the more realistic assessment in the irrigation adaptation potential effects of crop production under changing climate and land use.

How Solar Energy Can Work for You

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Iker, Sam

1978-01-01

The future of solar heated homes looks bright. The increase in availability of solar hardware and information along with tax credits point to an increase in both solar water and space heating. Solar systems can add to the value of a house. (BB)

Farmer Story: What I’ve Learned About Protecting the Privilege of Farming

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

An Iowa farmer describes his feeling that farming is a privilege that he wants to be available for future generations. He describes how he changed his practices to focus on water conservation after noticing algal blooms in his pond.

Estimated water use in Mississippi, 1980

USGS Publications Warehouse

Callahan, J.A.

1980-01-01

Large quantities of good quality ground and surface water are readily available in nearly all parts of Mississippi, and there is also an abundant supply of saline water in the estuaries along the Mississippi Gulf Coast. The total estimated water use in the State in 1980 from groundwater and surface water was 3532 million gallons/day (mgd), including 662 mgd of saline water. Freshwater used from all sources in Mississippi during the period 1975 through 1980 increased from 2510 mgd to > 2870 mgd, a 14% increase. Although modest increases of freshwater use may be expected in public, self-supplied industrial, and thermoelectric supplies, large future increases in the use of freshwater may be expected primarily as a result of growth in irrigation and aquaculture. Management and protection of the quantity and quality of the available freshwater supply are often problems associated with increased use. Water use data, both temporal and spatial, are needed by the State of Mississippi to provide for intelligent, long-term management of the resources; one table gives data on the principal categories of water use, sources, and use by county. (Lantz-PTT)

Assessing Water Level Changes in Lake, Reservoir, Wetland, and River Systems with Remote Sensing Tools and Hydrological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricko, M.; Birkett, C. M.; Beckley, B. D.

2017-12-01

The NASA/USDA Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor (G-REALM) offers multi-mission satellite radar altimetry derived surface water level products for a subset of large reservoirs, lakes, and wetlands. These products complement the in situ networks by providing stage information at un-gauged locations, and filling existing data gaps. The availability of both satellite-based rainfall (e.g., TRMM, GPCP) and surface water level products offers great opportunities to estimate and monitor additional hydrologic properties of the lake/reservoir systems. A simple water balance model relating the net freshwater flux over a catchment basin to the lake/reservoir level has been previously utilized (Ricko et al., 2011). The applicability of this approach enables the construction of a longer record of surface water level, i.e. improving the climate data record. As instrument technology and data availability evolve, this method can be used to estimate the water level of a greater number of water bodies, and a greater number of much smaller targets. In addition, such information can improve water balance estimation in different lake, reservoir, wetland, and river systems, and be very useful for assessment of improved prediction of surface water availability. Connections to climatic variations on inter-annual to inter-decadal time-scales are explored here, with a focus on a future ability to predict changes in storage volume for water resources or natural hazards concerns.

Modelling the role of forests on water provision services: a hydro-economic valuation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beguería, S.; Campos, P.

2015-12-01

Hydro-economic models that allow integrating the ecological, hydrological, infrastructure, economic and social aspects into a coherent, scientifically- informed framework constitute preferred tools for supporting decision making in the context of integrated water resources management. We present a case study of water regulation and provision services of forests in the Andalusia region of Spain. Our model computes the physical water flows and conducts an economic environmental income and asset valuation of forest surface and underground water yield. Based on available hydrologic and economic data, we develop a comprehensive water account for all the forest lands at the regional scale. This forest water environmental valuation is integrated within a much larger project aiming at providing a robust and easily replicable accounting tool to evaluate yearly the total income and capital of forests, encompassing all measurable sources of private and public incomes (timber and cork production, auto-consumption, recreational activities, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, water production, etc.). We also force our simulation with future socio-economic scenarios to quantify the physical and economic efects of expected trends or simulated public and private policies on future water resources. Only a comprehensive integrated tool may serve as a basis for the development of integrated policies, such as those internationally agreed and recommended for the management of water resources.

Connectivity research in Iceland - using scientific tools to establish sustainable water management strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finger, David

2015-04-01

Since the ninth century when the first settlers arrived in Iceland the island has undergone deforestation and subsequent vegetation degradation and soil erosion. Almost the entire birch forest and woodland, which originally covered ~ 25% of the nation, have been deforested through wood cutting and overgrazing. Consequently, soil erosion seriously affects over 40% of the country. During the last 50 years extensive drainage of wetlands has taken place. Furthermore, about 75% of Iceland electricity production comes from hydropower plants, constructed along the main rivers. Along with seismic and volcanic activities the above mentioned anthropogenic impacts continuously altered the hydro-geomorphic connectivity in many parts of the island. In the framework of ongoing efforts to restore ecosystems and their services in Iceland a thorough understanding of the hydro-geomorphic processes is essential. Field observations and numerical models are crucial tools to adopt appropriate management strategies and help decision makers establish sustainable governance strategies. Sediment transport models have been used in the past to investigate the impacts of hydropower dams on sediment transport in downstream rivers (Finger et al., 2006). Hydropower operations alter the turbidity dynamics in downstream freshwater systems, affecting visibility and light penetration into the water, leading to significant changes in primary production (Finger et al., 2007a). Overall, the interruption of connectivity by physical obstructions can affect the entire food chain, hampering the fishing yields in downstream waters (Finger et al., 2007b). In other locations hydraulic connectivity through retreating glaciers assures water transfer from upstream to downstream areas. The drastically retreat of glaciers can raise concerns of future water availability in remote mountain areas (Finger et al., 2013). Furthermore, the drastic reduction of glacier mass also jeopardizes the water availability for hydropower production (Finger et al., 2012). All these factors reveal the importance of a thorough understanding of hydro-geomorphic connectivity to adopt adequate water management strategies. The presentation will conclude by outlining how the above presented methods can be applied to Icelandic study sites to help water managers and policy makers to adopt resilient based policies regarding the challenges of future climate change impacts. References: Finger, D., M. Schmid, and A. Wuest (2006), Effects of upstream hydropower operation on riverine particle transport and turbidity in downstream lakes, Water Resour. Res., 42(8), doi: 10.1029/2005wr004751. Finger, D., P. Bossard, M. Schmid, L. Jaun, B. Müller, D. Steiner, E. Schaffer, M. Zeh, and A. Wüest (2007a), Effects of alpine hydropower operations on primary production in a downstream lake, Aquatic Sciences, 69(2), 240-256, doi: 10.1007/s00027-007-0873-6. Finger, D., M. Schmid, and A. Wüest (2007b), Comparing effects of oligotrophication and upstream hydropower dams on plankton and productivity in perialpine lakes, Water Resour. Res., 43(12), W12404, doi: 10.1029/2007WR005868. Finger, D., G. Heinrich, A. Gobiet, and A. Bauder (2012), Projections of future water resources and their uncertainty in a glacierized catchment in the Swiss Alps and the subsequent effects on hydropower production during the 21st century, Water Resour. Res., 48, doi: 10.1029/2011wr010733, W02521. Finger, D., A. Hugentobler, M. Huss, A. Voinesco, H. R. Wernli, D. Fischer, E. Weber, P.-Y. Jeannin, M. Kauzlaric, A. Wirz, T. Vennemann, F. Hüsler, B. Schädler, and R. Weingartner (2013), Identification of glacial melt water runoff in a karstic environment and its implication for present and future water availability, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3261-3277, doi: 10.5194/hess-17-3261-2013.

Quantifying Crop Specific Blue and Green Water Footprints and the Spatial Allocation of Virtual Water in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, J.; Smith, T.; McLaughlin, D.

2016-12-01

China, which had a population of 1.38 billion in 2013, is expected to peak at about 1.45 billion around 2030, with per capita food demand likely to increase significantly. The population growth and diet change make prospects of future available water and food worrisome for China. Quantitative estimates of crop specific blue and green water footprints provide useful insight about the roles of different water sources and give guidance for agricultural and water resource planning. This study uses reanalysis methods to merge diverse datasets, including information on water fluxes and land use, to estimate crop-specific green and blue water consumption at 0.5 degree spatial resolution. The estimates incorporate, through constraints in the reanalysis procedure, important physical connections between the water and land resources that support agriculture. These connections are important since land use affects evapotranspiration and runoff while water availability and crop area affect crop production and virtual water content. The results show that green water accounts for 86% and blue water accounts for 14% of the total national agricultural water footprint, respectively. The water footprints of cereals (wheat, maize and rice) and soybeans account for 51% of the total agricultural water footprint. Cereals and soybeans together account for 85% of the total blue water footprint.

How can crop intra-specific biodiversity mitigate the vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate change? A case study on durum wheat in Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monaco, Eugenia; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Basile, Angelo; Menenti, Massimo; Bonfante, Antonello; De Lorenzi, Fracesca

2014-05-01

Climate evolution may lead to changes in the amount and distribution of precipitations and to reduced water availability, with constraints on the cultivation of some crops. Recently, foreseen crop responses to climate change raise a crucial question for the agricultural stakeholders: are the current production systems resilient to this change? An active debate is in progress about the definition of adaptation of agricultural systems, particularly about the integrated assessment of climate stressors, vulnerability and resilece towards the evaluation of climate impact on agricultural systems. Climate change represents a risk for rain-fed agricultural systems, where irrigations cannot compensate reductions in precipitations. The intra-specific biodiversity of crops can be a resource towards adaptation. The knowledge of the responses to environmental conditions (temperature and water availability) of different cultivars can allow to identify options for adaptation to future climate. Simulation models of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system, driven by different climate scenarios, can describe present and foreseen soil water regime. The present work deals with a case-study on the adaptive capacity of durum wheat to climate change. The selected study area is a hilly region in Southern Italy (Fortore Beneventano, Campania Region). Two climate cases were studied: "reference" (1961-1990) and "future" (2021-2050). A mechanistic model of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system (SWAP) was run to determine the water regime in some soil units, representative of the soil variability in the study area. From model output, the Relative Evapotranspiration Deficit (RETD) was determined as an indicator of hydrological conditions during the crop growing period for each year and climate case; and periods with higher frequencies of soil water deficits were identified. The timing of main crop development stages was calculated. The occurrence of water deficit at different development stages was thus assessed. Moreover, the yield response functions to water availability of several durum wheat cultivars were determined; cultivars' hydrologic requirements were thus defined and compared with the simulated values of RETD. The latter was evaluated against requirements for each soil unit, cultivar and year in both climate cases to assess adaptability. In the future climate scenario a significant reduction (about 80 mm) of rainfall is foreseen. The analyses of inter- and intra-annual courses of the indicator (RETD) showed higher RETD in one soil unit, which resulted less suitable for durum wheat cultivation. According to the soils' water regime and to the cultivar-specific yield responses, the adaptability of durum wheat cultivars was assessed. The difference between the two climate cases was significant; the adaptability of the cultivars was strongly influenced by the different rainfall regime and by the soil physical properties, which strongly affected the soil water balance. The case study showed how in the future climate case, for rainfed durum wheat, the intra-specific variability will allow to maintain the current crop production system. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)

User's Guide to the Water-Analysis Screening Tool (WAST): A Tool for Assessing Available Water Resources in Relation to Aquatic-Resource Uses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stuckey, Marla H.; Kiesler, James L.

2008-01-01

A water-analysis screening tool (WAST) was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in partnership with the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, to provide an initial screening of areas in the state where potential problems may exist related to the availability of water resources to meet current and future water-use demands. The tool compares water-use information to an initial screening criteria of the 7-day, 10-year low-flow statistic (7Q10) resulting in a screening indicator for influences of net withdrawals (withdrawals minus discharges) on aquatic-resource uses. This report is intended to serve as a guide for using the screening tool. The WAST can display general basin characteristics, water-use information, and screening-indicator information for over 10,000 watersheds in the state. The tool includes 12 primary functions that allow the user to display watershed information, edit water-use and water-supply information, observe effects downstream from edited water-use information, reset edited values to baseline, load new water-use information, save and retrieve scenarios, and save output as a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet.

Technical Note: Seasonality in alpine water resources management - a regional assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanham, D.; Fleischhacker, E.; Rauch, W.

2008-01-01

Alpine regions are particularly affected by seasonal variations in water demand and water availability. Especially the winter period is critical from an operational point of view, as being characterised by high water demands due to tourism and low water availability due to the temporal storage of precipitation as snow and ice. The clear definition of summer and winter periods is thus an essential prerequisite for water resource management in alpine regions. This paper presents a GIS-based multi criteria method to determine the winter season. A snow cover duration dataset serves as basis for this analysis. Different water demand stakeholders, the alpine hydrology and the present day water supply infrastructure are taken into account. Technical snow-making and (winter) tourism were identified as the two major seasonal water demand stakeholders in the study area, which is the Kitzbueheler region in the Austrian Alps. Based upon different geographical datasets winter was defined as the period from December to March, and summer as the period from April to November. By determining potential regional water balance deficits or surpluses in the present day situation and in future, important management decisions such as water storage and allocation can be made and transposed to the local level.

Modeling Electricity Sector Vulnerabilities and Costs Associated with Water Temperatures Under Scenarios of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macknick, J.; Miara, A.; Brinkman, G.; Ibanez, E.; Newmark, R. L.

2014-12-01

The reliability of the power sector is highly vulnerable to variability in the availability and temperature of water resources, including those that might result from potential climatic changes or from competition from other users. In the past decade, power plants throughout the United States have had to shut down or curtail generation due to a lack of available water or from elevated water temperatures. These disruptions in power plant performance can have negative impacts on energy security and can be costly to address. Analysis of water-related vulnerabilities requires modeling capabilities with high spatial and temporal resolution. This research provides an innovative approach to energy-water modeling by evaluating the costs and reliability of a power sector region under policy and climate change scenarios that affect water resource availability and temperatures. This work utilizes results from a spatially distributed river water temperature model coupled with a thermoelectric power plant model to provide inputs into an electricity production cost model that operates on a high spatial and temporal resolution. The regional transmission organization ISO-New England, which includes six New England states and over 32 Gigawatts of power capacity, is utilized as a case study. Hydrological data and power plant operations are analyzed over an eleven year period from 2000-2010 under four scenarios that include climate impacts on water resources and air temperatures as well as strict interpretations of regulations that can affect power plant operations due to elevated water temperatures. Results of these model linkages show how the power sector's reliability and economic performance can be affected by changes in water temperatures and water availability. The effective reliability and capacity value of thermal electric generators are quantified and discussed in the context of current as well as potential future water resource characteristics.

Xanthos

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

2017-05-30

Xanthos is a Python package designed to quantify and analyze global water availability in history and in future at 0.5° × 0.5° spatial resolution and a monthly time step under a changing climate. Its performance was also tested through real applications. It is open-source, extendable and convenient to researchers who work on long-term climate data for studies of global water supply, and Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). This package integrates inherent global gridded data maps, I/O modules, Water-Balance Model modules and diagnostics modules by user-defined configuration.

Hydrological study of climate change impact on the Llobregat basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Versini, Pierre-Antoine; Ballinas-Gonzáles, Romeo; Sempere-Torres, Daniel; Escaler, Isabel

2010-05-01

Climate change may cause a progressive increase of atmospheric temperature and consequently may change the amount, frequency and intensity of precipitation. All these changes of meteorological variables may modify the water cycle: run-off, infiltration, aquifer recharge, etc… In Spain, climate change scenarios describe a general trend to increase temperature and reduced precipitation. This would result in a reduction of available water between 5 and 14% that can rise to 20-22% for the scenarios of the XXI century (AEMET, 2008). This work has focused on studying the impacts of climate change in one of the most important basins in Catalonia (Spain), the Llobregat river basin. It is a highly populated and urbanized catchment, where water resources are used for different purposes, such as drinking water production, agriculture irrigation, industry and hydro-electric energy production. This work is part of the European project "Water Change" (included in the LIFE + Environment Policy and Governance program) which deals with medium and long-term water resources modelling as a tool for planning and global change adaptation. Usually, to study the impact of climate change, future climate scenarios produced by general circulation models (GCMs) are used. To adapt the large-scale information provided by GCMs to a finer spatial scale required for regional and environmental impact studies, downscaling techniques have been developed. Here, an analogues downscaling method has been applied to simulate daily precipitation projections at rain gauge locations. The HBV hydrological model has been chosen to evaluate the discharges for strategic points (dam, channel and water extractions) in different areas within the watershed. The first results have shown that the water available for supply has a tendency to decrease, implying that measures have to be taken to face the future miss.

Remote Sensing of Terrestrial Water Storage with GRACE and Future Gravimetry Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodell, Matt; Watkins, Mike; Famiglietti, Jay

2011-01-01

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has demonstrated that satellite gravimetry can be a valuable tool for regional to global water cycle observation. Studies of ice sheet and glacier mass losses, ocean bottom pressure and circulation, and variability of water stored on and in the land including groundwater all have benefited from GRACE observations, and the list of applications and discoveries continues to grow. As the mission approaches its tenth anniversary of launch on March 12,2012, it has nearly doubled its proposed lifetime but is showing some signs of age. In particular, degraded battery capacity limits the availability of power in certain orbital configurations, so that the accelerometers must be turned off for approximately one month out of six. The mission managers have decided to operate the spacecrafts in a manner that maximizes the remaining lifetime, so that the longest possible climate data record is available from GRACE. Nevertheless, it is not unlikely that there will be a data gap between GRACE and the GRACE Follow On mission, currently proposed for launch in 2016. In this presentation we will describe recent GRACE enabled science, GRACE mission health, and plans for GRACE Follow On and other future satellite gravimetry missions.

Developing resilience to England's future droughts: time for cap and trade?

PubMed

Mitchell, Gordon; McDonald, Adrian

2015-02-01

Much of England is seriously water stressed and future droughts will present major challenges to the water industry if socially and economically damaging supply restrictions are to be avoided. Demand management is seen as a key mechanism for alleviating water stress, yet there are no truly effective incentives to encourage widespread adoption of the behavioural and technological demand management practices available. Water pricing could promote conservation, but on its own it is an inefficient tool for dealing with short term restriction in water supply. Raising prices over the short term in response to a drought is likely to be ineffectual in lowering demand sufficiently; conversely, maintaining high prices over the long term implies costs to the consumer which are needlessly high most of the time. We propose a system for developing resilience to drought in highly water stressed areas, based on a cap and trade (C&T) model. The system would represent a significant innovation in England's water market. However, international experience shows that C&T is successful in other sectors, and need not be overly complex. Here, we open the debate on how a C&T system might work in England. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conceptual model to assess water use associated with the life cycle of unconventional oil and gas development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Valder, Joshua F.; McShane, Ryan R.; Barnhart, Theodore B.; Sando, Roy; Carter, Janet M.; Lundgren, Robert F.

2018-03-15

As the demand for energy increases in the United States, so does the demand for water used to produce many forms of that energy. Technological advances, limited access to conventional oil and gas accumulations, and the rise of oil and gas prices resulted in increased development of unconventional oil and gas (UOG) accumulations. Unconventional oil and gas is developed using a method that combines directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques, allowing for greater oil and gas production from previously unrecoverable reservoirs. Quantification of the water resources required for UOG development and production is difficult because of disparate data sources, variable reporting requirements across boundaries (local, State, and national), and incomplete or proprietary datasets.A topical study was started in 2015 under the U.S. Geological Survey’s Water Availability and Use Science Program, as part of the directive in the Secure Water Act for the U.S. Geological Survey to conduct a National Water Census, to better understand the relation between production of UOG resources for energy and the amount of water needed to produce and sustain this type of energy development in the United States. The Water Availability and Use Science Program goal for this topical study is to develop and apply a statistical model to better estimate the water use associated with UOG development, regardless of the location and target geologic formation. As a first step, a conceptual model has been developed to characterize the life cycle of water use in areas of UOG development.Categories of water use and the way water-use data are collected might change over time; therefore, a generic approach was used in developing the conceptual model to allow for greater flexibility in adapting to future changes or newly available data. UOG development can be summarized into four stages: predrilling construction, drilling, hydraulic fracturing, and ongoing production. The water used in UOG production can be categorized further as direct, indirect, or ancillary water use. Direct water use is defined as the water used for drilling and hydraulic fracturing a well and for maintaining the well during ongoing production. Indirect water use is defined as the water used at or near a well pad. The water used for dust abatement also is considered an indirect use but may be applied away from the well pad. Ancillary water use is defined as the additional local or regional water use resulting from a change (for example, population) directly related to UOG development throughout the life cycle that is not used directly in the well or indirectly for any other purpose at the well pad.The conceptual model presented in this report consists of five elements: (1) input data, (2) processes, (3) decisions, (4) output data, and (5) outcomes. The input data requirements for estimating water use associated with UOG development are somewhat onerous, and obtaining suitable datasets can be challenging because local, State, and Federal agencies do not collect data similarly. The quality of a water-use assessment that uses the conceptual model presented in this report is dependent on the quality and quantity of data that are available for a UOG play. The conceptual model can be used for an assessment with sparse data; however, having sparse data likely will result in greater uncertainty in the water-use estimates.The conceptual model presented in this report is designed to be robust to characterize and simulate the data processing to estimate water use associated with UOG development. Although the results of an analysis that includes missing data have greater uncertainty, the analysis still can be insightful because it can establish a baseline estimate of UOG water use that may be refined further as more data become available. Analysis of models that include missing data also could aid in identifying the data most needed for future water-use estimates. Characterizing individual model limitations is important because the conceptual model can be used in future water-use studies to facilitate data compiling, data processing, estimating, and assessing UOG activities regardless of location.

Optimal function explains forest responses to global change

Treesearch

Roderick Dewar; Oskar Franklin; Annikki Makela; Ross E. McMurtrie; Harry T. Valentine

2009-01-01

Plant responses to global changes in carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen, and water availability are critical to future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, hydrology, and hence climate. Our understanding of those responses is incomplete, however. Multiple-resource manipulation experiments and empirical observations have revealed a...

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WEATHER AND WATER

EPA Science Inventory

Information regarding weather and hydrological processes and how they may change in the future is available from a variety of dynamically downscaled climate models. Current studies are helping to improve the use of such models for regional climate impact studies by testing the s...

Using AQUACROP to model the impacts of future climates on crop production and possible adaptation strategies in Sardinia and Tunisia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bird, Neil; Benabdallah, Sihem; Gouda, Nadine; Hummel, Franz; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Meyer, Swen; Soddu, Antonino; Woess-Gallasch, Susanne

2014-05-01

A work package in the FP-7 funded CLIMB Project - Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins Reducing Uncertainty and Quantifying Risk through an Integrated Monitoring and Modeling System had the goal of assessing socioeconomic vulnerability in two super-sites in future climates (2040-2070). The work package had deliverables to describe of agricultural adaptation measures appropriate to each site under future water availability scenarios and assess the risk of income losses due to water shortages in agriculture. The FAO model AQUACROP was used to estimate losses of agricultural productivity and indicate possible adaptation strategies. The presentation will focus on two interesting crops which show extreme vulnerability to expected changes in climate; irrigated lettuce in Sardinia and irrigated tomatoes in Tunisia. Modelling methodology, results and possible adaptation strategies will be presented.

Trends and future challenges of water resources in the Tigris-Euphrates Rivers basin in Iraq

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Issa, I. E.; Al-Ansari, N. A.; Sherwany, G.; Knutsson, S.

2013-12-01

Iraq is one of the riparian countries within basins of Tigris-Euphrates Rivers in the Middle East region. The region is currently facing water shortage problems due to the increase of the demand and climate changes. In the present study, average monthly water flow measurements for 15 stream flow gaging stations within basins of these rivers in Iraq with population growth rate data in some of its part were used to evaluate the reality of the current situation and future challenges of water availability and demand in Iraq. The results showed that Iraq receives annually 70.29 km3 of water 45.4 and 25.52 km3 from River Tigris and Euphrates respectively. An amount of 18.04 km3 is supplied by its tributaries inside Iraq. The whole amount of water in the Euphrates Rivers comes outside the Iraqi borders. Annual decrease of the water inflow is 0.1335 km3 yr-1 for Tigris and 0.245 km3 yr-1 for Euphrates. This implies the annual percentage reduction of inflow rates for the two rivers is 0.294 and 0.960% respectively. Iraq consumes annually 88.89% (63.05 km3) of incoming water from the two rivers, where about 60.43 and 39.57% are from Rivers Tigris and Euphrates respectively. Water demand increases annually by 0.896 km3; of which 0.5271 and 0.475 km3 within Tigris and Euphrates basins respectively. The average water demand in 2020 will increase to 42.844 km3 yr-1 for Tigris basin and for Euphrates 29.225 km3 yr-1 (total 72.069 km3 yr-1), while water availability will decrease to 63.46 km3 yr-1. This means that the overall water shortage will be restricted to 8.61 km3.

Environmental sustainability control by water resources carrying capacity concept: application significance in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djuwansyah, M. R.

2018-02-01

This paper reviews the use of Water Resources carrying capacity concept to control environmental sustainability with the particular note for the case in Indonesia. Carrying capacity is a capability measure of an environment or an area to support human and the other lives as well as their activities in a sustainable manner. Recurrently water-related hazards and environmental problems indicate that the environments are exploited over its carrying capacity. Environmental carrying capacity (ECC) assessment includes Land and Water Carrying Capacity analysis of an area, suggested to always refer to the dimension of the related watershed as an incorporated hydrologic unit on the basis of resources availability estimation. Many countries use this measure to forecast the future sustainability of regional development based on water availability. Direct water Resource Carrying Capacity (WRCC) assessment involves population number determination together with their activities could be supported by available water, whereas indirect WRCC assessment comprises the analysis of supply-demand balance status of water. Water resource limits primarily environmental carrying capacity rather than the land resource since land capability constraints are easier. WRCC is a crucial factor known to control land and water resource utilization, particularly in a growing densely populated area. Even though capability of water resources is relatively perpetual, the utilization pattern of these resources may change by socio-economic and cultural technology level of the users, because of which WRCC should be evaluated periodically to maintain usage sustainability of water resource and environment.

High-resolution isotope measurements resolve rapid ecohydrological dynamics at the soil-plant interface.

PubMed

Volkmann, Till H M; Haberer, Kristine; Gessler, Arthur; Weiler, Markus

2016-05-01

Plants rely primarily on rainfall infiltrating their root zones - a supply that is inherently variable, and fluctuations are predicted to increase on most of the Earth's surface. Yet, interrelationships between water availability and plant use on short timescales are difficult to quantify and remain poorly understood. To overcome previous methodological limitations, we coupled high-resolution in situ observations of stable isotopes in soil and transpiration water. We applied the approach along with Bayesian mixing modeling to track the fate of (2) H-labeled rain pulses following drought through soil and plants of deciduous tree ecosystems. We resolve how rainwater infiltrates the root zones in a nonequilibrium process and show that tree species differ in their ability to quickly acquire the newly available source. Sessile oak (Quercus petraea) adjusted root uptake to vertical water availability patterns under drought, but readjustment toward the rewetted topsoil was delayed. By contrast, European beech (Fagus sylvatica) readily utilized water from all soil depths independent of water depletion, enabling faster uptake of rainwater. Our results demonstrate that species-specific plasticity and responses to water supply fluctuations on short timescales can now be identified and must be considered to predict vegetation functional dynamics and water cycling under current and future climatic conditions. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

Water resources assessment in a poorly gauged mountainous catchment using a geographical information system and remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, Roshan; Takara, Kaoru; Tachikawa, Yasuto; Jha, Raghu N.

2004-11-01

Water resources assessment, which is an essential task in making development plans managing water resources, is considerably difficult to do in a data-poor region. In this study, we attempted to conduct a quantitative water resources assessment in a poorly gauged mountainous catchment, i.e. the River Indrawati catchment (1233 km2) in Nepal. This catchment is facing problems such as dry-season water scarcity and water use conflicts. However, the region lacks the basic data that this study needs. The data needed are supplemented from field surveys and global data (e.g. GTOPO30 DEM data, LandsatTM data and MODIS NDVI data). The global data have significantly helped us to draw out the information needed for a number of water-use scenarios. These data helped us determine that the available water quantity is enough at present to address the dry-season problems. The situation is not much worse for the immediate future; however, the threat of drought is noticed in a future scenario in which resources are consumed extensively. The study uses a geographical information system and remotely sensed data analysis tools extensively. Utilization of modern tools and global data is found effective for investigating practical problems and for detecting important features of water resources, even though the catchment is poorly gauged.

Decontamination of radiological agents from drinking water infrastructure: a literature review and summary.

PubMed

Szabo, Jeff; Minamyer, Scott

2014-11-01

This report summarizes the current state of knowledge on the persistence of radiological agents on drinking water infrastructure (such as pipes) along with information on decontamination should persistence occur. Decontamination options for drinking water infrastructure have been explored for some important radiological agents (cesium, strontium and cobalt), but important data gaps remain. Although some targeted experiments have been published on cesium, strontium and cobalt persistence on drinking water infrastructure, most of the data comes from nuclear clean-up sites. Furthermore, the studies focused on drinking water systems use non-radioactive surrogates. Non-radioactive cobalt was shown to be persistent on iron due to oxidation with free chlorine in drinking water and precipitation on the iron surface. Decontamination with acidification was an effective removal method. Strontium persistence on iron was transient in tap water, but adherence to cement-mortar has been demonstrated and should be further explored. Cesium persistence on iron water infrastructure was observed when flow was stagnant, but not with water flow present. Future research suggestions focus on expanding the available cesium, strontium and cobalt persistence data to other common infrastructure materials, specifically cement-mortar. Further exploration chelating agents and low pH treatment is recommended for future decontamination studies. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Application of stakeholder-based and modelling approaches for supporting robust adaptation decision making under future climatic uncertainty and changing urban-agricultural water demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhave, Ajay; Dessai, Suraje; Conway, Declan; Stainforth, David

2016-04-01

Deep uncertainty in future climate change and socio-economic conditions necessitates the use of assess-risk-of-policy approaches over predict-then-act approaches for adaptation decision making. Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches embody this principle and help evaluate the ability of adaptation options to satisfy stakeholder preferences under wide-ranging future conditions. This study involves the simultaneous application of two RDM approaches; qualitative and quantitative, in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka (population ~23 million), India. The study aims to (a) determine robust water resources adaptation options for the 2030s and 2050s and (b) compare the usefulness of a qualitative stakeholder-driven approach with a quantitative modelling approach. For developing a large set of future scenarios a combination of climate narratives and socio-economic narratives was used. Using structured expert elicitation with a group of climate experts in the Indian Summer Monsoon, climatic narratives were developed. Socio-economic narratives were developed to reflect potential future urban and agricultural water demand. In the qualitative RDM approach, a stakeholder workshop helped elicit key vulnerabilities, water resources adaptation options and performance criteria for evaluating options. During a second workshop, stakeholders discussed and evaluated adaptation options against the performance criteria for a large number of scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change in the basin. In the quantitative RDM approach, a Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was forced by precipitation and evapotranspiration data, coherent with the climatic narratives, together with water demand data based on socio-economic narratives. We find that compared to business-as-usual conditions options addressing urban water demand satisfy performance criteria across scenarios and provide co-benefits like energy savings and reduction in groundwater depletion, while options reducing agricultural water demand significantly affect downstream water availability. Water demand options demonstrate potential to improve environmental flow conditions and satisfy legal water supply requirements for downstream riparian states. On the other hand, currently planned large scale infrastructural projects demonstrate reduced value in certain scenarios, illustrating the impacts of lock-in effects of large scale infrastructure. From a methodological perspective, we find that while the stakeholder-driven approach revealed robust options in a resource-light manner and helped initiate much needed interaction amongst stakeholders, the modelling approach provides complementary quantitative information. The study reveals robust adaptation options for this important basin and provides a strong methodological basis for carrying out future studies that support adaptation decision making.

Evaluation of potential impacts of climate change and water management on streamflow in the Rovuma River, Mozambique and Tanzania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minihane, M.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2012-12-01

Economic development and public health are tied to water resources development in many parts of the world. Effective use of water management infrastructure investments requires projections of future climatic and water use conditions. This is particularly true in developing countries. We explore in this work water resource availability in the Rovuma River, which lies in a sparsely-populated region of southeastern Africa, on the border of Mozambique and Tanzania. While there are only limited documented observations of flow of the Rovuma River and it's tributaries, particularly in recent years, there is widespread interest in development of the water resources of the region. The national governments are interested in hydropower potential while private companies, many of them large multinational organizations, have started irrigation programs to increase agricultural output. While the Mozambique and Tanzania governments have a joint agreement over the river development, there is a need to assess both current and potential future water resource conditions in the basin. The sustainability of these developments, however, may be affected by climate change. Here we quantify potential changes in streamflow in the Rovuma River under dry and wet climate projection scenarios using the delta method and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro-scale hydrology model. We then evaluate streamflow changes relative to water withdrawals required for a range of irrigated agriculture scenarios. Our analysis is intended to be a starting point for planners to consider potential impacts of both streamflow withdrawal permits (for irrigated agriculture) and future uncertain climate conditions.

Groundwater-Surface water interaction in agricultural watershed that encompasses dense network of High Capacity wells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Talib, A.; Desai, A. R.

2017-12-01

The Central Sands region of Wisconsin is characterized by productive trout streams, lakes, farmland and forest. However, stream channelization, past wetland drainage, and ground water withdrawals have disrupted the hydrology of this Central Sands region. Climatically driven conditions in last decade (2000-2008) alone are unable to account for the severely depressed water levels. Increased interception and evapotranspiration from afforested areas in central sand Wisconsin may also be culprit for reduced water recharge. Hence, there is need to study the cumulative effects of changing precipitation patterns, groundwater withdrawals, and forest evapotranspiration to improve projections of the future of lake levels and water availability in this region. Here, the SWAT-MODFLOW coupled model approach was applied at large spatio-temporal scale. The coupled model fully integrates a watershed model (SWAT) with a groundwater flow model (MODFLOW). Surface water and ground water flows were simulated integratively at daily time step to estimate the groundwater discharge to the stream network in Central Sands that encompasses high capacity wells. The model was calibrated (2010-2013) and validated (2014-2017) based on streamflow, groundwater extraction, and water table elevation. As the long-term trends in some of the primary drivers is presently ambiguous in Central Sands under future climate, as is the case for total precipitation or timing of precipitation, we relied on a sensitivity student to quantitatively access how primary and secondary drivers may influence future net groundwater recharge. We demonstrate how such an approach could then be coupled with decision-making models to evaluate the effectiveness of groundwater withdrawal policies under a changing climate.

HyCAW: Hydrological Climate change Adaptation Wizard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bagli, Stefano; Mazzoli, Paolo; Broccoli, Davide; Luzzi, Valerio

2016-04-01

Changes in temporal and total water availability due to hydrologic and climate change requires an efficient use of resources through the selection of the best adaptation options. HyCAW provides a novel service to users willing or needing to adapt to hydrological change, by turning available scientific information into a user friendly online wizard that lets to: • Evaluate the monthly reduction of water availability induced by climate change; • Select the best adaptation options and visualize the benefits in terms of water balance and cost reduction; • Quantify potential of water saving by improving of water use efficiency. The tool entails knowledge of the intra-annual distribution of available surface and groundwater flows at a site under present and future (climate change) scenarios. This information is extracted from long term scenario simulation by E-HYPE (European hydrological predictions for the environment) model from Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, to quantify the expected evolution in water availability (e.g. percent reduction of soil infiltration and aquifer recharge; relative seasonal shift of runoff from summer to winter in mountain areas; etc.). Users are requested to provide in input their actual water supply on a monthly basis, both from surface and groundwater sources. Appropriate decision trees and an embedded precompiled database of Water saving technology for different sectors (household, agriculture, industrial, tourisms) lead them to interactively identify good practices for water saving/recycling/harvesting that they may implement in their specific context. Thanks to this service, users are not required to have a detailed understanding neither of data nor of hydrological processes, but may benefit of scientific analysis directly for practical adaptation in a simple and user friendly way, effectively improving their adaptation capacity. The tool is being developed under a collaborative FP7 funded project called SWITCH-ON (EU FP7 project No 603587) coordinated by SMHI (http://water-switch-on.eu/) and online demo is available at www.gecosistema.com/switchon

How downstream sub-basins depend on upstream inflows to avoid scarcity: typology and global analysis of transboundary rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munia, Hafsa Ahmed; Guillaume, Joseph H. A.; Mirumachi, Naho; Wada, Yoshihide; Kummu, Matti

2018-05-01

Countries sharing river basins are often dependent upon water originating outside their boundaries; meaning that without that upstream water, water scarcity may occur with flow-on implications for water use and management. We develop a formalisation of this concept drawing on ideas about the transition between regimes from resilience literature, using water stress and water shortage as indicators of water scarcity. In our analytical framework, dependency occurs if water from upstream is needed to avoid scarcity. This can be diagnosed by comparing different types of water availability on which a sub-basin relies, in particular local runoff and upstream inflows. At the same time, possible upstream water withdrawals reduce available water downstream, influencing the latter water availability. By developing a framework of scarcity and dependency, we contribute to the understanding of transitions between system regimes. We apply our analytical framework to global transboundary river basins at the scale of sub-basin areas (SBAs). Our results show that 1175 million people live under water stress (42 % of the total transboundary population). Surprisingly, the majority (1150 million) of these currently suffer from stress only due to their own excessive water use and possible water from upstream does not have impact on the stress status - i.e. they are not yet dependent on upstream water to avoid stress - but could still impact on the intensity of the stress. At the same time, 386 million people (14 %) live in SBAs that can avoid stress owing to available water from upstream and have thus upstream dependency. In the case of water shortage, 306 million people (11 %) live in SBAs dependent on upstream water to avoid possible shortage. The identification of transitions between system regimes sheds light on how SBAs may be affected in the future, potentially contributing to further refined analysis of inter- and intrabasin hydro-political power relations and strategic planning of management practices in transboundary basins.

Assessing the impacts of climate change on agricultural production in the Columbia River basin: incorporating water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adam, J. C.; Rajagopalan, K.; Stockle, C. O.; Yorgey, G.; Kruger, C. E.; Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Nelson, R.

2014-12-01

Changes in global population, food consumption and climate lead to a food security challenge for the future. Water resources, agricultural productivity and the relationships between them will to a large extent dictate how we address this challenge. Although food security is a global issue, impacts of climate change on water resources and agricultural productivity, as well as viability of adaptation strategies, are location specific; e.g., it is important to consider the regional regulatory environment. Our work focuses on the Columbia River basin (CRB) of the Pacific Northwest US. The water resources of the CRB are heavily managed to meet competing demands. There also exists a legal system for individuals/groups to obtain rights to use the publicly owned water resources, and the possibility of curtailing (i.e., restricting) some of these water rights in times of shortage. It is important to include an approximation of this water resource regulation and water rights curtailment process in modeling water availability and impacts of water shortages on agricultural production. The overarching objective of this work is to apply an integrated hydrologic-crop-water management modeling framework over the CRB to characterize the impacts of climate change on irrigation water demands, irrigation water availability, water shortages, and associated impacts in the 2030s. Results indicate that climate change has both positive and negative effects on agricultural production in the CRB and this varies by region and crop type. Certain watersheds that are already water stressed are projected to experience increasing stress in the future. Although, climate change results in increased water shortages and water rights curtailment in the region, this does not necessarily translate into an increased negative effect on yields; some crops are projected to increase in yield despite curtailment. This could be attributed to higher water use efficiency under elevated CO2 levels as well crops moving through growth stages earlier in the season with wetter and warmer spring conditions. Incorporating regulations into integrated modeling framework results in a more realistic assessment of climate change impacts.

Assessment of water availability and demand in Lake Guiers , Senegal.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sambou, D.; Weihrauch, D.; Hellwing, V.; Diekkrüger, B.; Höllermann, B.; Gaye, A. T.

2015-12-01

Assessment of water availability and demand in Lake Guiers, SenegalWater resources are critical to economic growth and social development. In most African countries, supply of drinking water to satisfy population needs is a key issue because of population growth and climate and land use change. During the last three decades, increasing population, changing patterns of water demand, and concentration of population and economic activities in urban areas has pressurize Senegal's freshwater resources. To overcome this deficit, Senegal turned, to the exploitation of the Lake Guiers. It is the sole water reservoir which can be used extensively as a stable freshwater. Its water is use for irrigating crops and sugar refinery and as a drinking water resource for urban centres, including Dakar, the capital city of Senegal, as well as for the local population and animal herds. To ensure sustainability, a greater understanding of Lake Guiers's water resources and effective management of its use will be required. In this study we developed and quantified future water situation (water availability and demand) in Lake Guiers under scenarios of climate change and population growth until 2050, using the water management model WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning system). The results show that the pressure on Lake Guiers's water resources will increase, leading to greater competition between agriculture and municipal demand site. Decreasing inflows due to climate change will aggravate this situation. WEAP results offer basis to assister lake Guiers water resources manager for an efficient long-term planning and management. Keywords: climate change, population growth , IWRM, Lake Guiers, Senegal

Understorey productivity in temperate grassy woodland responds to soil water availability but not to elevated [CO2 ].

PubMed

Collins, Luke; Bradstock, Ross A; Resco de Dios, Victor; Duursma, Remko A; Velasco, Sabrina; Boer, Matthias M

2018-06-01

Rising atmospheric [CO 2 ] and associated climate change are expected to modify primary productivity across a range of ecosystems globally. Increasing aridity is predicted to reduce grassland productivity, although rising [CO 2 ] and associated increases in plant water use efficiency may partially offset the effect of drying on growth. Difficulties arise in predicting the direction and magnitude of future changes in ecosystem productivity, due to limited field experimentation investigating climate and CO 2 interactions. We use repeat near-surface digital photography to quantify the effects of water availability and experimentally manipulated elevated [CO 2 ] (eCO 2 ) on understorey live foliage cover and biomass over three growing seasons in a temperate grassy woodland in south-eastern Australia. We hypothesised that (i) understorey herbaceous productivity is dependent upon soil water availability, and (ii) that eCO 2 will increase productivity, with greatest stimulation occurring under conditions of low water availability. Soil volumetric water content (VWC) determined foliage cover and growth rates over the length of the growing season (August to March), with low VWC (<0.1 m 3  m -3 ) reducing productivity. However, eCO 2 did not increase herbaceous cover and biomass over the duration of the experiment, or mitigate the effects of low water availability on understorey growth rates and cover. Our findings suggest that projected increases in aridity in temperate woodlands are likely to lead to reduced understorey productivity, with little scope for eCO 2 to offset these changes. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Hydrogeologic considerations for an interstate ground-water compact on the Madison aquifer, northern Great Plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konikow, Leonard F.

1978-01-01

The development of an interstate ground-water compact for the Madison aquifer in the Northern Great Plains may provide a framework to allocate equitably this large ground-water resource while avoiding possible future interstate legal conflicts. However, some technical problems will have to be resolved first. A compact designed to regulate or to allocate the available ground water will have to be written in very precise, legally acceptable definitions. The required definitions may infer a degree of measurement accuracy that cannot be technically or economically provided. Therefore, a trade off may be required between preserving natural conditions and allowing beneficial use of the ground-water resource.

Eco-hydrological Modeling in the Framework of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fatichi, Simone; Ivanov, Valeriy Y.; Caporali, Enrica

2010-05-01

A blueprint methodology for studying climate change impacts, as inferred from climate models, on eco-hydrological dynamics at the plot and small catchment scale is presented. Input hydro-meteorological variables for hydrological and eco-hydrological models for present and future climates are reproduced using a stochastic downscaling technique and a weather generator, "AWE-GEN". The generated time series of meteorological variables for the present climate and an ensemble of possible future climates serve as input to a newly developed physically-based eco-hydrological model "Tethys-Chloris". An application of the proposed methodology is realized reproducing the current (1961-2000) and multiple future (2081-2100) climates for the location of Tucson (Arizona). A general reduction of precipitation and a significant increase of air temperature are inferred. The eco-hydrological model is successively applied to detect changes in water recharge and vegetation dynamics for a desert shrub ecosystem, typical of the semi-arid climate of south Arizona. Results for the future climate account for uncertainties in the downscaling and are produced in terms of probability density functions. A comparison of control and future scenarios is discussed in terms of changes in the hydrological balance components, energy fluxes, and indices of vegetation productivity. An appreciable effect of climate change can be observed in metrics of vegetation performance. The negative impact on vegetation due to amplification of water stress in a warmer and dryer climate is offset by a positive effect of carbon dioxide augment. This implies a positive shift in plant capabilities to exploit water. Consequently, the plant water use efficiency and rain use efficiency are expected to increase. Interesting differences in the long-term vegetation productivity are also observed for the ensemble of future climates. The reduction of precipitation and the substantial maintenance of vegetation cover ultimately leads to the depletion of soil moisture and recharge to deeper layers. Such an outcome can affect the long-tem water availability in semi-arid systems and expose plants to more severe and frequent periods of stress.

Tracking Water-Use in Colorado's Energy Exploration and Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halamka, T. A.; Ge, S.

2017-12-01

By the year 2050 Colorado's population is projected to nearly double, posing many important questions about the stresses that Colorado's water resources will experience. Growing in tandem with Colorado's population is the state's energy exploration and development industry. As water demands increase across the state, the energy exploration and development industry must adapt to and prepare for future difficulties surrounding the legal acquisition of water. The goal of this study is to map out the potential sources of water within the state of Colorado that are being purchased, or will be eligible for purchase, for unconventional subsurface energy extraction. The background of this study includes an overview of the intertwined relationship between water, the energy industry, and the Colorado economy. The project also aims to determine the original purpose of legally appropriated water that is used in Colorado's energy exploration and development. Is the water primarily being purchased or leased from the agricultural sector? Is the water mostly surface water or groundwater? In order to answer these questions, we accessed data from numerous water reporting agencies and examined legal methods of acquisition of water for use in the energy industry. Using these data, we assess the future water quantity available to the energy industry. Knowledge and foresight on the origins of the water used by the energy industry will allow for better and strategic planning of water resources and how the industry will respond to statewide water-related stresses.

Memorandum on availability of ground water for irrigation in certain areas of eastern Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dennis, P.E.; ,

1957-01-01

This memorandum was prepared in response to a request from the Soil Conservation Service, Little Rock, Ark., for information on the future prospects of irrigation of rice with water from wells in certain areas in the basins of the Bache, St. Francis, and L'Anguille Rivers, Big and Dials Creeks, and Bayou Meto and the Bouef-Tensas-Macon basin. It was prepared as a aprt of the Statewide ground-water investigation in cooperation with the Arkansas Geological and Conservation Commission ad the University of Arkansas. The specific areas and water requirement specified by the Soil Conservation Service are listed in the appendix.

EPA's Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Research ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Increasing demands for sources of clean water—combined with changing land use practices, population growth, aging infrastructure, and climate change and variability—pose significant threats to our water resources. Failure to manage the Nation’s waters in an integrated, sustainable manner can jeopardize human and aquatic ecosystem health, which can impact our society and economy.Through innovative science and engineering, the SSWR Research Program is developing cost-effective, sustainable solutions to 21st century complex water issues and proactively developing solutions to emerging concerns. Our research is helping to ensure that clean, adequate, and equitable supplies of water are available to support human health and resilient aquatic ecosystems, now and into the future. To share information on EPA's water research program

Modeling the potential impacts of climate change on the water table level of selected forested wetlands in the southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jie; Sun, Ge; Li, Wenhong; Zhang, Yu; Miao, Guofang; Noormets, Asko; McNulty, Steve G.; King, John S.; Kumar, Mukesh; Wang, Xuan

2017-12-01

The southeastern United States hosts extensive forested wetlands, providing ecosystem services including carbon sequestration, water quality improvement, groundwater recharge, and wildlife habitat. However, these wetland ecosystems are dependent on local climate and hydrology, and are therefore at risk due to climate and land use change. This study develops site-specific empirical hydrologic models for five forested wetlands with different characteristics by analyzing long-term observed meteorological and hydrological data. These wetlands represent typical cypress ponds/swamps, Carolina bays, pine flatwoods, drained pocosins, and natural bottomland hardwood ecosystems. The validated empirical models are then applied at each wetland to predict future water table changes using climate projections from 20 general circulation models (GCMs) participating in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. We show that combined future changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration would significantly alter wetland hydrology including groundwater dynamics by the end of the 21st century. Compared to the historical period, all five wetlands are predicted to become drier over time. The mean water table depth is predicted to drop by 4 to 22 cm in response to the decrease in water availability (i.e., precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) by the year 2100. Among the five examined wetlands, the depressional wetland in hot and humid Florida appears to be most vulnerable to future climate change. This study provides quantitative information on the potential magnitude of wetland hydrological response to future climate change in typical forested wetlands in the southeastern US.

Bioenergy costs and potentials with special attention to implications for the land system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popp, A.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Dietrich, J.; Klein, D.; Bauer, N.; Krause, M.; Beringer, T.; Gerten, D.

2011-12-01

In the coming decades, an increasing competition for global land and water resources can be expected, due to rising demand for agricultural products, goals of nature conservation, and changing production conditions due to climate change. Especially biomass from cellulosic bioenergy crops, such as Miscanthus or poplar, is being proposed to play a substantial role in future energy systems if climate policy aims at stabilizing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration at low levels. However, the potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation remains unclear due to large uncertainties about future agricultural yield improvements, land availability for biomass plantations, and implications for the land system. In order to explore the cost-effective contribution of bioenergy to a low carbon transition with special attention to implications for the land system, we present a modeling framework with detailed biophysical and economic representation of the land and energy sector: We have linked the global dynamic vegetation and water balance model LPJmL (Bondeau et al. 2007, Rost et al. 2008), the global land and water use model MAgPIE (Lotze-Campen et al. 2008, Popp et al. 2010), and the global energy-economy-climate model ReMIND (Leimbach et al. 2009). In this modeling framework LPJmL supplies spatially explicit (0.5° resolution) agricultural yields as well as carbon and water stocks and fluxes. Based on this biophysical input MAgPIE delivers cost-optimized land use patterns (0.5° resolution), associated GHG emissions and rates of future yield increases in agricultural production. Moreover, shadow prices are calculated for irrigation water (as an indicator for water scarcity), food commodities, and bioenergy (as an indicator for changes in production costs) under different land use constraints such as forest conservation for climate change mitigation and as a contribution to biodiversity conservation. The energy-economy-climate model ReMIND generates the demand for bioenergy, taking into account the direct competition with other energy technology options for GHG mitigation, based on economic costs of bioenergy production. As a result, we find that bioenergy from specialized grassy and woody bioenergy crops can contribute approximately 100 EJ in 2055 and up to 300 EJ of primary energy in 2095. Protecting natural forests decreases biomass availability for energy production in the medium run, but not in the long run. Reducing the land available for agricultural use can partially be compensated for by higher rates of technological change in agriculture; however, bioenergy crops will occupy large shares of available cropland in both scenarios. In addition, our trade-off analysis indicates that forest protection combined with large-scale cultivation of dedicated bioenergy is likely to affect bioenergy potentials, but also to increase global food prices and increase water scarcity.

Socio-hydrological resilience of an arid aquifer system, subject to changing climate and inadequate agricultural management: A case study from the Valley of Santo Domingo, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wurl, Jobst; Gámez, Alba E.; Ivanova, Antonina; Imaz Lamadrid, Miguel A.; Hernández-Morales, Pablo

2018-04-01

Mismanagement has caused the overexploitation of one third of the major aquifers in Mexico, mainly due to excessive water extraction for agricultural irrigation. Santo Domingo (Baja California Sur, in northern Mexico, where agriculture absorbs nearly 80% of water) is the only aquifer in the Mexico where, after a period of overexploitation, equality between extraction and recharge rates was achieved, although this has not meant the securement of long-term water availability. This paper offers an analysis of hydrological resilience of a water-limited arid ecosystem under future extraction scenarios and changing climate conditions. A regional groundwater flow model is proposed using MODFLOW software. Then, different indicators were modeled as outcomes of coupled human-water systems to predict water trajectories under different human impacts. The aim was to recognize water insecurity scenarios and define appropriate actions to a more sustainable use of this scarce resource in the region. Thus, although runoff derived from extreme floods may favor infiltration, the involvement of local stakeholders and decision makers to reverse the adverse impacts of current water management and climate change is imperative if water availability and better quality are to be secured.

A GIS cost model to assess the availability of freshwater, seawater, and saline groundwater for algal biofuel production in the United States.

PubMed

Venteris, Erik R; Skaggs, Richard L; Coleman, Andre M; Wigmosta, Mark S

2013-05-07

A key advantage of using microalgae for biofuel production is the ability of some algal strains to thrive in waters unsuitable for conventional crop irrigation such as saline groundwater or seawater. Nonetheless, the availability of sustainable water supplies will provide significant challenges for scale-up and development of algal biofuels. We conduct a partial techno-economic assessment based on the availability of freshwater, saline groundwater, and seawater for use in open pond algae cultivation systems. We explore water issues through GIS-based models of algae biofuel production, freshwater supply (constrained to less than 5% of mean annual flow per watershed) and costs, and cost-distance models for supplying seawater and saline groundwater. We estimate that, combined, these resources can support 9.46 × 10(7) m(3) yr(-1) (25 billion gallons yr(-1)) of renewable biodiesel production in the coterminous United States. Achievement of larger targets requires the utilization of less water efficient sites and relatively expensive saline waters. Despite the addition of freshwater supply constraints and saline water resources, the geographic conclusions are similar to our previous results. Freshwater availability and saline water delivery costs are most favorable for the coast of the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula, where evaporation relative to precipitation is moderate. As a whole, the barren and scrub lands of the southwestern U.S. have limited freshwater supplies, and large net evaporation rates greatly increase the cost of saline alternatives due to the added makeup water required to maintain pond salinity. However, this and similar analyses are particularly sensitive to knowledge gaps in algae growth/lipid production performance and the proportion of freshwater resources available, key topics for future investigation.

Water availability, use, and estimated future water demand in the upper Duck River basin, middle Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hutson, S.S.

1993-01-01

The Duck River in Tennessee supplied about 18.9 Mgal of water/d to Tullahoma, Manchester, Lewisburg, Columbia, and other cities. Municipal water use increased to 20.9 Mgal/d in 1990; projections indicate increases in demand for the next 25 yr. Socioeconomic and water use data from the basin for 1989 were used to calibrate the water use models within the Institute for Water Resources Municipal and Industrial Needs (IWR-MAIN) System. The models were used to estimate future water use demand in the basin for the years 1995, 2000, and 2015. Projections showed demands of about 24.3 Mgal/d in 1995; 28.3 Mgal/d in 2000; and 39.0 Mgal/d in 2015. Increases in withdrawals from the Duck River downstream from Shelbyville could reduce the minimum flow at Columbia from 119 to 83.8 cu feet/s. The study also included an overview of the potential for developing groundwater resources in the area. Statistical analyses of yields to 5,938 wells showed that the highest yields are in Coffee County, but 75 percent of the wells in Coffee County produced less than 30 gal/m. However, measurements of streamflow losses along tributaries to the Duck River suggest that the potential for development of groundwater does exist at specific sites.

Water resources in Central Asia - status quo and future conflicts in transboundary river catchments - the example of the Zarafshan River (Tajikistan-Uzbekistan)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groll, Michael; Opp, Christian; Kulmatov, Rashid; Normatov, Inom; Stulina, Galina; Shermatov, Nurmakhmad

2014-05-01

Water is the most valuable resource in Central Asia and due to its uneven distribution and usage among the countries of the region it is also the main source of tension between upstream and downstream water users. Due to the rapidly shrinking glaciers in the Pamir, Tien-Shan and Alai mountains, the available water resources will, by 2030, be 30% lower than today while the water demand of the growing economies will increase by 30%. This will further aggravate the pressure on the water resources and increase the water deficit caused by an unsustainable water use and political agendas. These challenges can only be overcome by an integrated water resource management for the important transboundary river catchments. The basis for such an IWRM approach however needs to be a solid data base about the status quo of the water resources. To that end the research presented here provides a detailed overview of the transboundary Zarafshan River (Tajikistan-Uzbekistan), the lifeline for more than 6 mln people. The Zarafshan River is well suited for this as it is not only one of the most important rivers in Central Asia but because the public availability of hydrological and ecological data is very limited, Furthermore the catchment is characterized by the same imbalances in the Water-Energy-Food-Nexus as most river systems in that region, which makes the Zarafshan a perfect model river for Central Asia as a whole. The findings presented here are based on field measurements, existing data from the national hydrometeorological services and an extensive literature analysis and cover the status quo of the meteorological and hydrological characteristics of the Zarafshan as well as the most important water quality parameters (pH, conductivity, nitrate, phosphate, arsenic, chromate, copper, zinc, fluoride, petroleum products, phenols and the aquatic invertebrate fauna). The hydrology of the Zarafshan is characterized by a high natural discharge dynamic in the mountainous upper parts of the catchment and by sizeable anthropogenic water extractions in the lower parts of the catchment, where on average 60.6% of the available water is diverted for irrigation purposes in the Samarkand and Navoi provinces. The water quality is heavily affected by the unsustainable land use and inadequate/missing water purification techniques. The reduced discharge and the return flow of untreated agricultural drainage water lead to a critical pollution of the river in the lower parts of the catchment. Additional sources of pollutants where identified in the upstream (the Anzob ore mining and processing complex) and downstream (the Navoi special economic area) parts of the catchment. The impact of the different water uses on the availability and the quality of the water resources are discussed in detail and outlook for the expected development during the next decades is given. These results form the basis for future investigations and for the conception of an IWRM plan for the Zarafshan River catchment.

Groundwater Regulation in the Houston-Galveston Region to Control Subsidence - Balancing Total Water Demand, Available Alternative Water Supplies, and Groundwater Withdrawal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turco, M. J.

2014-12-01

In 1975, as a result of area residents and local governments becoming increasingly alarmed by the continued impact of subsidence on economic growth and quality of life in the region, the Harris-Galveston Coastal Subsidence District was created by the 64th Texas Legislature as an underground water conservation district. The primary mission of what is now the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, is to provide for the regulation of the withdrawal of groundwater to control subsidence. Subsidence has been a concern in the Houston, TX area throughout most of recent history. Since 1906, over 10 feet of subsidence has occurred, with a broad area of 6 feet of subsidence throughout most of the Houston Area.Over its nearly forty years of existence, the District has developed substantial data sets providing the foundation for its regulatory plan. Annual water-level measurements, a network of deep extensometers, over 80 subsidence GPS monitors, and updated numerical and analytical models have been utilized. Periodically, the District utilizes U.S. Census data to predict the future magnitude and location of population and water demand. In 2013, all of these data sets were combined producing an updated regulatory plan outlining the timelines of conversion to alternative sources of water and defining the maximum percentage groundwater can contribute to a user's total water demand.The management of the groundwater resources within the District has involved significant coordination with regional ground and surface water suppliers; ongoing interaction with other state and local regulatory bodies; analysis of accurate and up to date predictions on water usage; the enforcement of real disincentives to those who rely too heavily on groundwater and a commitment to practicing and promoting water conservation.Water supplies in the region are projected to continue to be stressed in the future due to rapid population increases in the region. Future District efforts will be focused on maintaining the successes of the past while evaluating potential deeper groundwater resources and any potential subsidence resulting from future development.

Ground-water resources of southern New Castle County, Delaware

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rima, Donald Robert; Coskery, O.J.; Anderson, P.W.

1964-01-01

Southern New Castle County has a land area of 190 square miles in northcentral Delaware. It is predominantly a rural area with a population of about 9,500 people who are engaged chiefly in agriculture. By and large, the residents are dependent upon ground water as a source of potable water. This investigation was made to provide knowledge of the availability and quality of .the ground-water supply to aid future development. The climate, surface features, and geology of the area are favorable for the occurrence of ground water. Temperatures are generally mild and precipitation is normally abundant and fairly evenly distributed throughout the year. The topography of the area is relatively fiat and, hence, the streams have low gradients. The surface is underlain to a considerable depth by highly permeable unconsolidated sediments that range in age from Early Cretaceous to Recent. Nearly all the subsurface stratigraphic units yield some water to wells, but only four parts or combinations of these units are sufficiently permeable, to yield large supplies. These are, from oldest to youngest, the nonmarine Cretaceous sediments and the Magothy Formation, the Monmouth Group, the Rancocas Formation, and .the surficial terrace and valley-fill deposits. In the northern part of the area the nonmarine Cretaceous sediments and the Magothy Formation can be reached economically by wells. Yields in excess of 300 gpm (gallons per minute) have been obtained from wells screened in this aquifer, but the maximum productivity of the aquifer has not been .tested. The Monmouth Group is used as a source of water in the central part of the area, where some wells yield as much as 125 gpm. The Rancocas Formation is the principal aquifer in the southern part of the area. Yields of 200-400 gpm can be expected from this aquifer, owing to its uniformly coarse texture, particularly in the upper part of the formation. The terrace deposits compose the shallow watertable aquifer throughout the area. In places the water-table aquifer is connected hydraulically to each of .the other three aquifers. The yields of wells tapping this aquifer are generally small, because the saturated thickness of the aquifer is small. The aquifer does provide a convenient and economical source of water for domestic supplies, .and the quality o# the available water supply is generally satisfactory for most purposes. The use of water in the area was estimated to be about 1.77 million gallons per day in 1959. Rural uses amounted to about 75 percent of the total, and municipal and industrial uses accounted for .the remainder. Water for irrigation of crops constituted about half of the water pumped for rural use. The total use of ground water in the area is a mere fraction of the supply available. Each of the four major aquifers is capable of vastly increased production. Future development, however, will be .limited by the changes in the quality of the water resulting from the future pumping regime-and the expanded pattern of development. Salt-water encroachment will become a problem in the eastern part of the area if steps are not taken to avoid it.

Spatial patterns of hydro-social metrics in the Northeastern United States from the Colonial Era through the Industrial Revolution (1600-1920)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witherell, B. B.; Bain, D. J.; Salant, N.; Aloysius, N. R.

2009-12-01

Humans impact the hydrologic cycle at local, regional and global scales. Understanding how spatial patterns of human water use and hydrologic impact have changed over time is important to future water management in an era of increasing water constraints and globalization of high water-use resources. This study investigates spatial dependence and spatial patterns of hydro-social metrics for the Northeastern United States from 1600 to 1920 through the use of spatial statistical techniques. Several relevant hydro-social metrics, including water residence time, surface water storage (natural and human engineered) and per capita water availability, are analyzed. This study covers a region and period of time that saw significant population growth, landscape change, and industrial growth. These changes had important impacts on water availability. Although some changes such as the elimination of beavers, and the resulting loss of beaver ponds on low-order streams, are felt at a regional scale, preliminary analysis indicates that humans responded to water constraints by acting locally (e.g., mill ponds for water power and water supply reservoirs for public health). This 320-year historical analysis of spatial patterns of hydro-social metrics provides unique insight into long-term changes in coupled human-water systems.

Consequences of Groundwater Development on Water Resources of Hawai`i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rotzoll, K.; Izuka, S. K.; El-Kadi, A. I.

2017-12-01

The availability of fresh groundwater for human use is limited by whether the impacts of withdrawals are deemed acceptable by community stakeholders and water-resource managers. Quantifying the island-wide hydrologic impacts of withdrawal—saltwater intrusion, water-table decline, and reduction of groundwater discharge to streams, nearshore environments and downgradient groundwater bodies—is thus a key step for assessing fresh groundwater availability in Hawai`i. Groundwater-flow models of the individual islands of Kaua`i, O`ahu, and Maui were constructed using MODFLOW 2005 with the Seawater-Intrusion Package (SWI2). Consistent model construction among the islands, calibration, and analysis were streamlined using Python scripts. Results of simulating historical withdrawals from Hawai`i's volcanic aquifers show that the types and magnitudes of impacts that can limit fresh groundwater availability vary among each islands' unique hydrogeologic settings. In high-permeability freshwater-lens aquifers, saltwater intrusion and reductions in coastal groundwater discharge are the principal consequences of withdrawals that can limit groundwater availability. In dike-impounded groundwater and thickly saturated low-permeability aquifers, reduced groundwater discharge to streams, water-table decline, or reduced flows to adjacent freshwater-lens aquifers can limit fresh groundwater availability. The numerical models are used to quantify and delineate the spatial distribution of these impacts for the three islands. The models were also used to examine how anticipated changes in groundwater recharge and withdrawals will affect fresh groundwater availability in the future.

Modeling The Hydrology And Water Allocation Under Climate Change In Rural River Basins: A Case Study From Nam Ngum River Basin, Laos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayasekera, D. L.; Kaluarachchi, J.; Kim, U.

2011-12-01

Rural river basins with sufficient water availability to maintain economic livelihoods can be affected with seasonal fluctuations of precipitation and sometimes by droughts. In addition, climate change impacts can also alter future water availability. General Circulation Models (GCMs) provide credible quantitative estimates of future climate conditions but such estimates are often characterized by bias and coarse scale resolution making it necessary to downscale the outputs for use in regional hydrologic models. This study develops a methodology to downscale and project future monthly precipitation in moderate scale basins where data are limited. A stochastic framework for single-site and multi-site generation of weekly rainfall is developed while preserving the historical temporal and spatial correlation structures. The spatial correlations in the simulated occurrences and the amounts are induced using spatially correlated yet serially independent random numbers. This method is applied to generate weekly precipitation data for a 100-year period in the Nam Ngum River Basin (NNRB) that has a land area of 16,780 km2 located in Lao P.D.R. This method is developed and applied using precipitation data from 1961 to 2000 for 10 selected weather stations that represents the basin rainfall characteristics. Bias-correction method, based on fitted theoretical probability distribution transformations, is applied to improve monthly mean frequency, intensity and the amount of raw GCM precipitation predicted at a given weather station using CGCM3.1 and ECHAM5 for SRES A2 emission scenario. Bias-correction procedure adjusts GCM precipitation to approximate the long-term frequency and the intensity distribution observed at a given weather station. Index of agreement and mean absolute error are determined to assess the overall ability and performance of the bias correction method. The generated precipitation series aggregated at monthly time step was perturbed by the change factors estimated using the corrected GCM and baseline scenarios for future time periods of 2011-2050 and 2051-2090. A network based hydrologic and water resources model, WEAP, was used to simulate the current water allocation and management practices to identify the impacts of climate change in the 20th century. The results of this work are used to identify the multiple challenges faced by stakeholders and planners in water allocation for competing demands in the presence of climate change impacts.

Climate Change Extreme Events: Meeting the Information Needs of Water Resource Managers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quay, R.; Garfin, G. M.; Dominguez, F.; Hirschboeck, K. K.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Guido, Z.; White, D. D.

2013-12-01

Information about climate has long been used by water managers to develop short term and long term plans and strategies for regional and local water resources. Inherent within longer term forecasts is an element of uncertainty, which is particularly evident in Global Climate model results for precipitation. For example in the southwest estimates in the flow of the Colorado River based on GCM results indicate changes from 120% or current flow to 60%. Many water resource managers are now using global climate model down scaled estimates results as indications of potential climate change as part of that planning. They are addressing the uncertainty within these estimates by using an anticipatory planning approach looking at a range of possible futures. One aspect of climate that is important for such planning are estimates of future extreme storm (short term) and drought (long term) events. However, the climate science of future possible changes in extreme events is less mature than general climate change science. At a recent workshop among climate scientists and water managers in the southwest, it was concluded the science of climate change extreme events is at least a decade away from being robust enough to be useful for water managers in their water resource management activities. However, it was proposed that there are existing estimates and records of past flooding and drought events that could be combined with general climate change science to create possible future events. These derived events could be of sufficient detail to be used by water resource managers until such time that the science of extreme events is able to provide more detailed estimates. Based on the results of this workshop and other work being done by the Decision Center for a Desert City at Arizona State University and the Climate Assessment for the Southwest center at University of Arizona., this article will 1) review what are the extreme event data needs of Water Resource Managers in the southwest, 2) review of the current state of extreme event climate science, 3) review what information is available about past extreme events in the southwest, 4) report the results of the 2012 workshop on climate change and extreme events, and 5) propose a method for combining this past information with current climate science information to produce estimates of possible future extreme events in sufficient detail to be useful to water resource managers.

Climate change impacts on water availability: developing regional scenarios for agriculture of the Former Soviet Union countries of Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirilenko, A.; Dronin, N.

2010-12-01

Water is the major factor, limiting agriculture of the five Former Soviet Union (FSU) of Central Asia. Elevated topography prevents moist and warm air from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans from entering the region.With exception of Kazakhstan, agriculture is generally restricted to oases and irrigated lands along the major rivers and canals. Availability of water for irrigation is the major factor constraining agriculture in the region, and conflicts over water are not infrequent. The current water crisis in the region is largely due to human activity; however the region is also strongly impacted by the climate. In multiple locations, planned and autonomous adaptations to climate change have already resulted in changes in agriculture, such as a dramatic increase in irrigation, or shift in crops towards the ones better suited for warmer and dryer climate; however, it is hard to differentiate between the effects of overall management improvement and the avoidance of climate-related losses. Climate change will contribute to water problems, escalating irrigation demand during the drought period, and increasing water loss with evaporation. The future of the countries of the Aral Sea basin then depends on both the regional scenario of water management policy and a global scenario of climate change, and is integrated with global socioeconomic scenarios. We formulate a set of regional policy scenarios (“Business as Usual”, “Falling Behind” and “Closing the Gap”) and demonstrate how each of them corresponds to IPCC SRES scenarios, the latter used as an input to the General Circulation Models (GCMs). Then we discuss the relative effectiveness of the introduced scenarios for mitigating water problems in the region, taking into account the adaptation through changing water demand for agriculture. Finally, we introduce the results of multimodel analysis of GCM climate projections, especially in relation to the change in precipitation and frequency of droughts, and discuss the impact of climate change on future development of the region.

Adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) to enhance EDC screening and testing: Overview of recent activities and future efforts

EPA Science Inventory

Screening and testing for endocrine active chemicals was mandated under 1996 amendments to the Safe Drinking Water Act and Food Quality Protection Act. Efficiencies can be gained in the endocrine disruptor screening program by using available biological and toxicological knowledg...

Past and future climate patterns affecting temperate, sub-tropical and tropical horticultural crop production

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Perennial horticultural crop production will be impacted by climate change effects on temperature, water availability, solar radiation, air pollution, and carbon dioxide. Horticultural crop value is derived from both the quantity and the quality of the harvested product; both of which are affected ...

Genetic and environmental limitations on crop responses to elevated [CO2

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

While the future crop growing environment is likely to be warmer and with more variable water availability, the stimulation of C3 photosynthesis by elevated CO2 concentration provides a potential benefit of global climate change. However, experimental field studies suggest that C3 crops fall short o...

Hydrologic Futures: Using Scenario Analysis to Evaluate Impacts of Forecasted Land Use Change on Hydrologic Services

EPA Science Inventory

Land cover and land use changes can substantially alter hydrologic ecosystem services. Water availability and quality can change with modifications to the type or amount of surface vegetation, the permeability of soil and other surfaces, and the introduction of contaminants throu...

Summary of available hydrogeologic data for the northeast portion of the alluvial aquifer at Louisville, Kentucky

USGS Publications Warehouse

Unthank, Michael D.; Nelson, Hugh L.

2006-01-01

The hydrogeologic characteristics of the unconsolidated glacial outwash sand and gravel deposits that compose the northeast portion of the alluvial aquifer at Louisville, Kentucky, indicate a prolific water-bearing formation with approximately 7 billion gallons of ground-water storage and an estimated sustainable yield of over 280 million gallons per day. This abundance of ground water and the need to properly develop and manage this resource has prompted many past investigations (since 1956), which have produced reports, maps, and data files covering a variety of topics relative to the movement, availability, and use of ground water in this area. These data have been compiled into a single report to assist in future development and use of the ground-water resources. Available ground-water data for the alluvial aquifer at Louisville, Kentucky, from Beargrass Creek to Harrods Creek, were compiled from the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System and the Kentucky Groundwater Data Repository. Data contained in these databases include ground-water well-construction details and historical ground-water levels, drillers' logs, and water-quality information. Additional data and information were gathered from project files at the U.S. Geological Survey--Kentucky Water Science Center and files at the Louisville Water Company. Information contained in these files included data from area pumping tests describing aquifer characteristics and ground-water flow. Data describing current conditions of the ground-water system in the northeast portion of the alluvial aquifer also are included. Ground-water levels from a network of observation wells show recent trends in the flow system, and information from the Kentucky Division of Water-Groundwater Branch lists current permitted ground-water withdrawals in the area.

Drought response of five conifer species under contrasting water availability suggests high vulnerability of Norway spruce and European larch.

PubMed

Lévesque, Mathieu; Saurer, Matthias; Siegwolf, Rolf; Eilmann, Britta; Brang, Peter; Bugmann, Harald; Rigling, Andreas

2013-10-01

The ability of tree species to cope with anticipated decrease in water availability is still poorly understood. We evaluated the potential of Norway spruce, Scots pine, European larch, black pine, and Douglas-fir to withstand drought in a drier future climate by analyzing their past growth and physiological responses at a xeric and a mesic site in Central Europe using dendroecological methods. Earlywood, latewood, and total ring width, as well as the δ(13) C and δ(18) O in early- and latewood were measured and statistically related to a multiscalar soil water deficit index from 1961 to 2009. At the xeric site, δ(13) C values of all species were strongly linked to water deficits that lasted longer than 11 months, indicating a long-term cumulative effect on the carbon pool. Trees at the xeric site were particularly sensitive to soil water recharge in the preceding autumn and early spring. The native species European larch and Norway spruce, growing close to their dry distribution limit at the xeric site, were found to be the most vulnerable species to soil water deficits. At the mesic site, summer water availability was critical for all species, whereas water availability prior to the growing season was less important. Trees at the mesic were more vulnerable to water deficits of shorter duration than the xeric site. We conclude that if summers become drier, trees growing on mesic sites will undergo significant growth reductions, whereas at their dry distribution limit in the Alps, tree growth of the highly sensitive spruce and larch may collapse, likely inducing dieback and compromising the provision of ecosystem services. However, the magnitude of these changes will be mediated strongly by soil water recharge in winter and thus water availability at the beginning of the growing season. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Present and Future Water Supply for Mammoth Cave National Park, Kentucky

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cushman, R.V.; Krieger, R.A.; McCabe, John A.

1965-01-01

The increase in the number of visitors during the past several years at Mammoth Cave National Park has rendered the present water supply inadequate. Emergency measures were necessary during August 1962 to supplement the available supply. The Green River is the largest potential source of water supply for Mammoth Cave. The 30-year minimum daily discharge is 40 mgd (million gallons per day) . The chemical quality is now good, but in the past the river has been contaminated by oil-field-brine wastes. By mixing it with water from the existing supply, Green River water could be diluted to provide water of satisfactory quality in the event of future brine pollution. The Nolin River is the next largest potential source of water (minimum releases from Nolin Reservoir, 97-129 mgd). The quality is satisfactory, but use of this source would require a 8-mile pipeline. The present water supply comes from springs draining a perched aquifer in the Haney Limestone Member of the Golconda Formation on Flint Ridge. Chemical quality is excellent but the minimum observed flow of all the springs on Flint Ridge plus Bransford well was only 121,700 gpd (gallons per day). This supply is adequate for present needs but not for future requirements; it could be augmented with water from the Green River. Wet Prong Buffalo Creek is the best of several small-stream supplies in the vicinity of Mammoth Cave. Minimum flow of the creek is probably about 300,000 gpd and the quality is good. The supply is about 5 miles from Mammoth Cave. This supply also may be utilized for a future separate development in the northern part of the park. The maximum recorded yield of wells drilled into the basal ground water in the Ste. Genevieve and St. Louis Limestone is 36 gpm (gallons per minute). Larger supplies may be developed if a large underground stream is struck. Quality can be expected to be good unless the well is drilled too far below the basal water table and intercepts poorer quality water at a lower level. This source of supply might be used to augment the present supply, but locating the trunk conduits might be difficult. Water in alluvium adjacent to the Green River and perched water in the Big Clifty Sandstone Member of the Golconda Formation and Girkin Formation have little potential as a water supply.

Assessment of Agricultural Water Management in Punjab, India using Bayesian Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, T. A.; Devineni, N.; Lall, U.; Sidhu, R.

2013-12-01

The success of the Green Revolution in Punjab, India is threatened by the declining water table (approx. 1 m/yr). Punjab, a major agricultural supplier for the rest of India, supports irrigation with a canal system and groundwater, which is vastly over-exploited. Groundwater development in many districts is greater than 200% the annual recharge rate. The hydrologic data required to complete a mass-balance model are not available for this region, therefore we use Bayesian methods to estimate hydrologic properties and irrigation requirements. Using the known values of precipitation, total canal water delivery, crop yield, and water table elevation, we solve for each unknown parameter (often a coefficient) using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. Results provide regional estimates of irrigation requirements and groundwater recharge rates under observed climate conditions (1972 to 2002). Model results are used to estimate future water availability and demand to help inform agriculture management decisions under projected climate conditions. We find that changing cropping patterns for the region can maintain food production while balancing groundwater pumping with natural recharge. This computational method can be applied in data-scarce regions across the world, where agricultural water management is required to resolve competition between food security and changing resource availability.

Infrastructure sufficiency in meeting water demand under climate-induced socio-hydrological transition in the urbanizing Capibaribe River basin - Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro Neto, A.; Scott, C. A.; Lima, E. A.; Montenegro, S. M. G. L.; Cirilo, J. A.

2014-09-01

Water availability for a range of human uses will increasingly be affected by climate change, especially in the arid and semiarid tropics. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the infrastructure sufficiency in meeting water demand under climate-induced socio-hydrological transition in the Capibaribe River basin (CRB). The basin has experienced spatial and sectoral (agriculture-to-urban) reconfiguration of water demands. Human settlements that were once dispersed, relying on intermittent sources of surface water, are now larger and more spatially concentrated, which increases water-scarcity effects. Based on the application of linked hydrologic and water-resources models using precipitation and temperature projections of the IPCC SRES (Special Report: Emissions Scenarios) A1B scenario, a reduction in rainfall of 26.0% translated to streamflow reduction of 60.0%. We used simulations from four members of the HadCM3 (UK Met Office Hadley Centre) perturbed physics ensemble, in which a single model structure is used and perturbations are introduced to the physical parameterization schemes in the model (Chou et al., 2012). We considered that the change of the water availability in the basin in the future scenarios must drive the water management and the development of adaptation strategies that will manage the water demand. Several adaptive responses are considered, including water-loss reductions, wastewater collection and reuse, and rainwater collection cisterns, which together have potential to reduce future water demand by 23.0%. This study demonstrates the vulnerabilities of the infrastructure system during socio-hydrological transition in response to hydroclimatic and demand variabilities in the CRB and also indicates the differential spatial impacts and vulnerability of multiple uses of water to changes over time. The simulations showed that the measures proposed and the water from interbasin transfer project of the São Francisco River had a positive impact over the water supply in the basin, mainly for human use. Industry and irrigation will suffer impact unless other measures are implemented for demand control.

A Water Resources Management Model to Evaluate Climate Change Impacts in North-Patagonia, Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bucciarelli, L. F.; Losano, F. T.; Marizza, M.; Cello, P.; Forni, L.; Young, C. A.; Girardin, L. O.; Nadal, G.; Lallana, F.; Godoy, S.; Vallejos, R.

2014-12-01

Most recently developed climate scenarios indicate a potential future increase in water stress in the region of Comahue, located in the North-Patagonia, Argentina. This region covers about 140,000 km2 where the Limay River and the Neuquén River converge into the Negro River, constituting the largest integrated basins in Argentina providing various uses of water resources: a) hydropower generation, contributing 15% of the national electricity market; b) fruit-horticultural products for local markets and export; c) human and industrial water supply; d) mining and oil exploitation, including Vaca Muerta, second world largest reserves of shale gas and fourth world largest reserves of shale-oil. The span of multiple jurisdictions and the convergence of various uses of water resources are a challenge for integrated understanding of economically and politically driven resource use activities on the natural system. The impacts of climate change on the system could lead to water resource conflicts between the different political actors and stakeholders. This paper presents the results of a hydrological simulation of the Limay river and Neuquén river basins using WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) considering the operation of artificial reservoirs located downstream at a monthly time step. This study aims to support policy makers via integrated tools for water-energy planning under climate uncertainties, and to facilitate the formulation of water policy-related actions for future water stress adaptation. The value of the integrated resource use model is that it can support local policy makers understand the implications of resource use trade-offs under a changing climate: 1) water availability to meet future growing demand for irrigated areas; 2) water supply for hydropower production; 3) increasing demand of water for mining and extraction of unconventional oil; 4) potential resource use conflicts and impacts on vulnerable populations.

Surface-water investigations at Barrow, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Stanley H.

1972-01-01

The U.S. Public Health Service is currently developing plans for a long-term water supply and sewage treatment system for the village of Barrow, Alaska. To assist in planning, the U.S. Geological Survey was requested to initiate a cooperative streamflow data-collection program with the U.S. Public Health Service in June 1972 to determine the availability of surface water and the areal distribution of runoff in the Barrow area. This basic-data report summarizes the streamflow data collected from June 1 through July 10, 1972, at three gaging stations in the Barrow area (fig. 1) and discusses the future data-collection program.

A review of current and possible future human-water dynamics in Myanmar's river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taft, Linda; Evers, Mariele

2016-12-01

Rivers provide a large number of ecosystem services and riparian people depend directly and indirectly on water availability and quality and quantity of the river waters. The country's economy and the people's well-being and income, particularly in agriculturally dominated countries, are strongly determined by the availability of sufficient water. This is particularly true for the country of Myanmar in South-east Asia, where more than 65 % of the population live in rural areas, working in the agricultural sector. Only a few studies exist on river basins in Myanmar at all and detailed knowledge providing the basis for human-water research is very limited. A deeper understanding of human-water system dynamics in the country is required because Myanmar's society, economy, ecosystems and water resources are facing major challenges due to political and economic reforms and massive and rapid investments from neighbouring countries. However, not only policy and economy modify the need for water. Climate variability and change are other essential drivers within human-water systems. Myanmar's climate is influenced by the Indian Monsoon circulation which is subject to interannual and also regional variability. Particularly the central dry zone and the Ayeyarwady delta are prone to extreme events such as serious drought periods and extreme floods. On the one hand, the farmers depend on the natural fertiliser brought by regular river inundations and high groundwater levels for irrigation; on the other hand, they suffer from these water-related extreme events. It is expected that theses climatic extreme events will likely increase in frequency and magnitude in the future as a result of global climate change. Different national and international interests in the abundant water resources may provide opportunities and risks at the same time for Myanmar. Several dam projects along the main courses of the rivers are currently in the planning phase. Dams will most likely modify the river flows, the sediment loads and also the still rich biodiversity in the river basins, to an unknown extent. Probably, these natural and anthropogenically induced developments will also impact a special type of farming; we call it alluvial farming in the river floodplains and on sandbars in the Ayeyarwady River basin in Myanmar, which is called Kaing and Kyun, respectively. Relevant aspects for future development of Myanmar's river basins combine environment-water-related factors, climate, economic and social development, water management and land use changes. Research on these interplays needs to capture the spatial and temporal dynamics of these drivers. However, it is only possible to gain a full understanding of all these complex interrelationships if multi-scale spatiotemporal information is analysed in an inter- and trans-disciplinary approach. This paper gives a structured overview of the current scientific knowledge available and reveals the relevance of this information with regard to human-environment and particularly to human-water interactions in Myanmar's river basins. By applying the eDPSIR framework, it identifies key indicators in the Myanmar human-water system, which has been shown to be exemplary by giving an example of use related to alluvial farming in the central dry zone.

Front Range Infrastructure Resources Project: water-resources activities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robson, Stanley G.; Heiny, Janet S.

1998-01-01

Infrastructure, such as roads, buildings, airports, and dams, is built and maintained by use of large quantities of natural resources such as aggregate (sand and gravel), energy, and water. As urban area expand, local sources of these resource are becoming inaccessible (gravel cannot be mined from under a subdivision, for example), or the cost of recovery of the resource becomes prohibitive (oil and gas drilling in urban areas is costly), or the resources may become unfit for some use (pollution of ground water may preclude its use as a water supply). Governmental land-use decision and environmental mandates can further preclude development of natural resources. If infrastructure resources are to remain economically available. current resource information must be available for use in well-reasoned decisions bout future land use. Ground water is an infrastructure resource that is present in shallow aquifers and deeper bedrock aquifers that underlie much of the 2,450-square-mile demonstration area of the Colorado Front Range Infrastructure Resources Project. In 1996, mapping of the area's ground-water resources was undertaken as a U.S. Geological Survey project in cooperation with the Colorado Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources, and the Colorado Water Conservation Board.

An Assessment of Water Demand and Availability to meet Construction and Operational Needs for Large Utility-Scale Solar Projects in the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klise, G. T.; Tidwell, V. C.; Macknick, J.; Reno, M. D.; Moreland, B. D.; Zemlick, K. M.

2013-12-01

In the Southwestern United States, there are many large utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) facilities currently in operation, with even more under construction and planned for future development. These are locations with high solar insolation and access to large metropolitan areas and existing grid infrastructure. The Bureau of Land Management, under a reasonably foreseeable development scenario, projects a total of almost 32 GW of installed utility-scale solar project capacity in the Southwest by 2030. To determine the potential impacts to water resources and the potential limitations water resources may have on development, we utilized methods outlined by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to determine potential water use in designated solar energy zones (SEZs) for construction and operations & maintenance (O&M), which is then evaluated according to water availability in six Southwestern states. Our results indicate that PV facilities overall use less water, however water for construction is high compared to lifetime operational water needs. There is a transition underway from wet cooled to dry cooled CSP facilities and larger PV facilities due to water use concerns, though some water is still necessary for construction, operations, and maintenance. Overall, ten watersheds, 9 in California, and one in New Mexico were identified as being of particular concern because of limited water availability. Understanding the location of potentially available water sources can help the solar industry determine locations that minimize impacts to existing water resources, and help understand potential costs when utilizing non-potable water sources or purchasing existing appropriated water. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Climate change, livelihoods and the multiple determinants of water adequacy: two approaches at regional to global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lissner, Tabea; Reusser, Dominik

2015-04-01

Inadequate access to water is already a problem in many regions of the world and processes of global change are expected to further exacerbate the situation. Many aspects determine the adequacy of water resources: beside actual physical water stress, where the resource itself is limited, economic and social water stress can be experienced if access to resource is limited by inadequate infrastructure, political or financial constraints. To assess the adequacy of water availability for human use, integrated approaches are needed that allow to view the multiple determinants in conjunction and provide sound results as a basis for informed decisions. This contribution proposes two parts of an integrated approach to look at the multiple dimensions of water scarcity at regional to global scale. These were developed in a joint project with the German Development Agency (GIZ). It first outlines the AHEAD approach to measure Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development, implemented at global scale and at national resolution. This first approach allows viewing impacts of climate change, e.g. changes in water availability, within the wider context of AHEAD conditions. A specific focus lies on the uncertainties in projections of climate change and future water availability. As adequate water access is not determined by water availability alone, in a second step we develop an approach to assess the water requirements for different sectors in more detail, including aspects of quantity, quality as well as access, in an integrated way. This more detailed approach is exemplified at region-scale in Indonesia and South Africa. Our results show that in many regions of the world, water scarcity is a limitation to AHEAD conditions in many countries, regardless of differing modelling output. The more detailed assessments highlight the relevance of additional aspects to assess the adequacy of water for human use, showing that in many regions, quality and infrastructure are the main limitations to water security.

MARSOL: Demonstrating Managed Aquifer Recharge as a Solution to Water Scarcity and Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schueth, Christoph

2014-05-01

Southern Europe and the Mediterranean region are facing the challenge of managing its water resources under conditions of increasing scarcity and concerns about water quality. Already, the availability of fresh water in sufficient quality and quantity is one of the major factors limiting socio economic development. Innovative water management strategies such as the storage of reclaimed water or excess water from different sources in Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) schemes can greatly increase water availability and therefore improve water security. Main objective of the proposed project MARSOL is to demonstrate that MAR is a sound, safe and sustainable strategy that can be applied with great confidence and therefore offering a key approach for tackling water scarcity in Southern Europe. For this, eight field sites were selected that will demonstrate the applicability of MAR using various water sources, ranging from treated wastewater to desalinated seawater, and a variety of technical solutions. Targets are the alleviation of the effect of climate change on water resources, the mitigation of droughts, to countermeasure temporal and spatial misfit of water availability, to sustain agricultural water supply and rural socio-economic development, to combat agricultural related pollutants, to sustain future urban and industrial water supply and to limit seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers. Results of the demonstration sites will be used to develop guidelines for MAR site selection, technical realization, monitoring strategies, and modeling approaches, to offer stakeholders a comprehensive, state of the art and proven toolbox for MAR implementation. Further, the economic and legal aspects of MAR will be analyzed to enable and accelerate market penetration. The MARSOL consortium combines the expertise of consultancies, water suppliers, research institutions, and public authorities, ensuring high practical relevance and market intimacy.

MARSOL: Demonstrating Managed Aquifer Recharge as a Solution to Water Scarcity and Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurtzman, D.; Schüth, C.; Kallioras, A.; Rossetto, R.; Lobo-Ferreira, J.; Escalante, E.; Sanchez-Vila, X.; Foglia, L.

2013-12-01

Southern Europe and the Mediterranean region are facing the challenge of managing its water resources under conditions of increasing scarcity and concerns about water quality. Already, the availability of fresh water in sufficient quality and quantity is one of the major factors limiting socio-economic development. Innovative water management strategies such as the storage of reclaimed water or excess water from different sources in Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) schemes can greatly increase water availability and therefore improve water security. Main objective of the proposed project MARSOL is to demonstrate that MAR is a sound, safe and sustainable strategy that can be applied with great confidence and therefore offering a key approach for tackling water scarcity in Southern Europe. For this, eight field sites were selected that will demonstrate the applicability of MAR using various water sources, ranging from treated wastewater to desalinated seawater, and a variety of technical solutions. Targets are the alleviation of the effect of climate change on water resources, the mitigation of droughts, to countermeasure temporal and spatial misfit of water availability, to sustain agricultural water supply and rural socio-economic development, to combat agricultural related pollutants, to sustain future urban and industrial water supply and to limit seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers. Results of the demonstration sites will be used to develop guidelines for MAR site selection, technical realization, monitoring strategies, and modeling approaches, to offer stakeholders a comprehensive, state of the art and proven toolbox for MAR implementation. Further, the economic and legal aspects of MAR will be analyzed to enable and accelerate market penetration. The MARSOL consortium combines the expertise of consultancies, water suppliers, research institutions, and public authorities, ensuring high practical relevance and market intimacy.

Availability of Additional Water for Chiricahua National Monument, Cochise County, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Phillip W.

1962-01-01

The Chiricahua National Monument is in the eastern part of Cochise County, Ariz. The monument is about 35 miles southeast of Wilicox in the north end of the Chiricahua Mountains which border Sulphur Springs Valley on the west. The area is drained by two intermittent washes, one in Bonita and the other in Rhyolite Canyons. Shake Spring is the present source of water for the monument. It ranges in rate of flow from 2 to 12 gpm (gallons per minute) and during dry periods It is not adequate to support the requirements of the monument. Ample water to meet the present and future needs of the Chiricahua National Monument is available from a combination of several sources - undeveloped springs or seeps, capture of runoff out of the canyons, and wells drilled in the alluvium.

Climate change and epidemiology of human parasitosis in Egypt: A review.

PubMed

Lotfy, Wael M

2014-11-01

Climate change is an emerging global issue. It is expected to have significant impacts both in Egypt and around the world. Thus, the country is in need for taking action to prepare for the unavoidable effects of climate change, including the increase in water stress, the rise in sea level, and the rapidly increasing gap between the limited water availability and the escalating demand for water in the country. Also, weather and climate play a significant role in people's health. Direct impacts of climate change on the Egyptians public health may include also increased prevalence of human parasitic diseases. Climate could strongly influence parasitic diseases transmitted through intermediate hosts. The present work reviews the future of such parasitic diseases in the view of the current available evidence and scenarios for climate change in the Egypt.

Climate change and epidemiology of human parasitosis in Egypt: A review

PubMed Central

Lotfy, Wael M.

2013-01-01

Climate change is an emerging global issue. It is expected to have significant impacts both in Egypt and around the world. Thus, the country is in need for taking action to prepare for the unavoidable effects of climate change, including the increase in water stress, the rise in sea level, and the rapidly increasing gap between the limited water availability and the escalating demand for water in the country. Also, weather and climate play a significant role in people’s health. Direct impacts of climate change on the Egyptians public health may include also increased prevalence of human parasitic diseases. Climate could strongly influence parasitic diseases transmitted through intermediate hosts. The present work reviews the future of such parasitic diseases in the view of the current available evidence and scenarios for climate change in the Egypt. PMID:25685530

Development of integrated scenarios to assess future conditions of aquatic ecosystems under water scarcity in the Mediterranean - perspectives from the GLOBAQUA project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huber-Garcia, Verena; Akinsete, Ebun; Gampe, David; Ker Rault, Philippe; Kok, Kasper; Koundouri, Phoebe; Luttik, Joke; Nikulin, Grigory; Pistocchi, Alberto; Souliotis, Ioannis; Ludwig, Ralf

2017-04-01

Water and water-related services are major components of the human wellbeing, and as such are major factors of socio-economic development; yet freshwater systems are under threat by a variety of stressors (organic and inorganic pollution, geomorphological alterations, land cover change, water abstraction, invasive species and pathogens). Water scarcity is most commonly associated with inappropriate water management and resulting river flow reductions. It has become one of the most important drivers of change in freshwater ecosystems. Conjoint occurrence of a myriad of stressors (chemical, geomorphological, biological) under water scarcity will produce novel and unfamiliar synergies and most likely very pronounced effects. Stressors are hierarchically arranged in terms of intensity, frequency and scale, and their effects can be predicted to be from transient to irreversible. Most ecosystems are simulta¬neously exposed to multiple-stress situations. Within the scope of the GLOBAQUA project the effects of multiple stressors on aquatic ecosystems in selected river basins across Europe with a focus on areas suffering from water scarcity are analyzed. In addition, management strategies are improved and adapted with the aim of inhibiting adverse effects on aquatic ecosystems and ensuring the supply with water for all purposes in the study areas also in the future. Policy relevant implications will be given to ensure a best possible status of these aquatic ecosystems also under future conditions. In this context, land use and land cover as well as the meteorological conditions can be seen as two main stressors for the quality and quantity of surface and subsurface water. These factors considerably affect the use and availability of water, especially in regions which already experience water scarcity. If the problem is not addressed correctly, negative effects on biodiversity, water supply as well as important economic consequences may arise. In Europe, many fresh water systems experience this and a worsening of the situation can be expected if actions are not taken. To assess future conditions, spatially distributed, integrated scenarios to drive various impact models are inevitable. These simulations then assess future conditions of aquatic ecosystems, both in water quality and quantity, and in the end provide decision support. To achieve this goal, a modeling framework is set up to develop integrated scenarios of changes in climate, land use and water management. These scenarios are based on storylines around various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), as established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and developed in collaboration with project partners and experts. Major challenges stem from the downscaling of these to the regional scale. Projections of future climate conditions originate from the simulations provided through the EURO-CORDEX project. An ensemble of different General Circulation Models (GCMs) driving various Regional Climate Models (RCMs) is available. After a thorough investigation of these projections and an estimation of the uncertainty envelope, a small subset of models was chosen in a carefully conducted selection procedure, following a cluster analysis. These selected simulations were downscaled to better represent the regional conditions and provide the implications of the RCPs in the storylines. The impacts of the SSPs are represented in spatially distributed land use maps developed through the land use change model iCLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects). In a first step knowledge on past land use change is required and an analysis was carried out based on the CORINE land cover data. Extensive expert surveys have been conducted in the case study areas to determine the most important drivers of these changes, considering both, biophysical and socio-economic variables. The results of these were implemented in iCLUE taking into account dynamic changes of the climate, population and economy. Climate and land use projections will then be applied to provide possible future conditions and various impact modeling activities within the GLOBAQUA project. This approach is favored over a non-integrated approach using only climate projections, and required to develop and test site specific Programs of Measures (PoMs). Eventually, decision support can be provided to local authorities for effective PoMs. [The funding for this research through the FP7-project GLOBAQUA by the European Commission (GA: 603629) is gratefully acknowledged.

USGS assessment of water and proppant requirements and water production associated with undiscovered petroleum in the Bakken and Three Forks Formations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haines, Seth S.; Varela, Brian; Hawkins, Sarah J.; Gianoutsos, Nicholas J.; Tennyson, Marilyn E.

2017-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has conducted an assessment of water and proppant requirements, and water production volumes, associated with possible future production of undiscovered petroleum resources in the Bakken and Three Forks Formations, Williston Basin, USA. This water and proppant assessment builds directly from the 2013 USGS petroleum assessment for the Bakken and Three Forks Formations, and it has been conducted using a new water and proppant assessment methodology that builds from the established USGS methodology for assessment of undiscovered petroleum in continuous reservoirs. We determined the assessment input values through extensive analysis of available data on per-well water and proppant use for hydraulic fracturing, including trends over time and space. We determined other assessment inputs through analysis of regional water-production trends.

Serious-game for water resources management adaptation training to climatic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leroy, Eve; Saulnier, Georges-Marie

2013-04-01

Water resources access is a main issue for territorial development to ensure environmental and human well-being. Indeed, sustainable development is vulnerable to water availability and climate change may affect the quantity and temporality of available water resources for anthropogenic water uses. How then to adapt, how to change water management rules and practices and how to involve stakeholders is such process? To prevent water scarcity situations, which may generate conflicts and impacts on ecosystems, it is important to think about a sustainable development where anthropogenic water uses are in good balance with forecasted water resources availability. This implies to raise awareness and involve stakeholders for a sustainable water management. Stakeholders have to think about future territorial development taking into account climate change impacts on water resources. Collaboration between scientists and stakeholders is essential to insure consistent climate change knowledge, well identification of anthropogenic uses, tensions and stakes of the territory. However sharing information on complex questions such as climate change, hydro-meteorological modeling and practical constraints may be a difficult task. Therefore to contribute to an easier debate and to the global training of all the interested actors, a serious game about water management was built. The serious game uses scientist complex models with real data but via a simple and playful web-game interface. The advantage of this interface is that it may help stakeholders, citizen or the target group to raise their understandings of impacts of climate change on water resources and to raise their awareness to the need for a sustainable water management while using state-of-the-art knowledge. The principle of the game is simple. The gamer is a mayor of a city and has to manage the water withdrawals from hydro systems, water distribution and consumption, water retreatment etc. In the same time, a clock is running and climate change occurs on the territory which impacts the water resources. The gamer has to deal with this evolution and try to help its municipality in growing. If the water management plays well the city can develop. At the opposite, wrong player decisions may generate water, energy or food scarcities, which lead the city to decrease. A first version of this game still under development was built. It makes uses of data from a famous French ski resort: Megève municipality. A demo of this game will be presented. Under a playful approach the serious game helps to discuss essential but strained topics between stakeholders, scientists and citizens. It may be considered as a useful tool for decision support and explanation of a complex topic. It is also hoped that this approach offers new ways of collaboration with stakeholders to approach complex situations in order to find the best paths for future water management.

Development of Chengdu and sustainable utilization of the ancient Dujiangyan Water-Conservancy Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, X.; You, J.; Yang, P.; Chai, X.

2015-05-01

The Dujiangyan Water-Conservancy Project is a great water irrigation works in Chinese cultural history, which led the Min River water to the vast Chengdu Plain, and created fertile and pretty "land of abundance". Now Chengdu is facing increased water demand stress due mainly to rapid urbanization. This paper first analyses the available water resources of Chengdu based on historical hydrological data from 1964 to 2008. The results show that the average annual water resources were 8.9 billion m3 in 1986 and 7.9 billion m3 in 2008 under various environmental conditions. The future tendency of water demand in city development planning is predicted by the Policy Dialogue Model (PODIUM). Finally, the strategies for water resources exploitation accompanying the sustainable development pattern are studied. The result illustrates that rational and careful management are required to balance the gap between water supply and demand

Urban growth, climate change, and freshwater availability

PubMed Central

McDonald, Robert I.; Green, Pamela; Balk, Deborah; Fekete, Balazs M.; Revenga, Carmen; Todd, Megan; Montgomery, Mark

2011-01-01

Nearly 3 billion additional urban dwellers are forecasted by 2050, an unprecedented wave of urban growth. While cities struggle to provide water to these new residents, they will also face equally unprecedented hydrologic changes due to global climate change. Here we use a detailed hydrologic model, demographic projections, and climate change scenarios to estimate per-capita water availability for major cities in the developing world, where urban growth is the fastest. We estimate the amount of water physically available near cities and do not account for problems with adequate water delivery or quality. Modeled results show that currently 150 million people live in cities with perennial water shortage, defined as having less than 100 L per person per day of sustainable surface and groundwater flow within their urban extent. By 2050, demographic growth will increase this figure to almost 1 billion people. Climate change will cause water shortage for an additional 100 million urbanites. Freshwater ecosystems in river basins with large populations of urbanites with insufficient water will likely experience flows insufficient to maintain ecological process. Freshwater fish populations will likely be impacted, an issue of special importance in regions such as India's Western Ghats, where there is both rapid urbanization and high levels of fish endemism. Cities in certain regions will struggle to find enough water for the needs of their residents and will need significant investment if they are to secure adequate water supplies and safeguard functioning freshwater ecosystems for future generations. PMID:21444797

Olive response to water availability: yield response functions, soil water content indicators and evaluation of adaptability to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riccardi, Maria; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Basile, Angelo; Bonfante, Antonello; Menenti, Massimo; Monaco, Eugenia; De Lorenzi, Francesca

2013-04-01

Climate evolution, with the foreseen increase of temperature and frequency of drought events during the summer, could cause significant changes in the availability of water resources specially in the Mediterranean region. European countries need to encourage sustainable agriculture practices, reducing inputs, especially of water, and minimizing any negative impact on crop quantity and quality. Olive is an important crop in the Mediterranean region that has traditionally been cultivated with no irrigation and is known to attain acceptable production under dry farming. Therefore this crop will not compete for foreseen reduced water resources. However, a good quantitative knowledge must be available about effects of reduced precipitation and water availability on yield. Yield response functions, coupled with indicators of soil water availability, provide a quantitative description of the cultivar- specific behavior in relation to hydrological conditions. Yield response functions of 11 olive cultivars, typical of Mediterranean environment, were determined using experimental data (unpublished or reported in scientific literature). The yield was expressed as relative yield (Yr); the soil water availability was described by means of different indicators: relative soil water deficit (RSWD), relative evapotranspiration (RED) and transpiration deficit (RTD). Crops can respond nonlinearly to changes in their growing conditions and exhibit threshold responses, so for the yield functions of each olive cultivar both linear regression and threshold-slope models were considered to evaluate the best fit. The level of relative yield attained in rain-fed conditions was identified and defined as the acceptable yield level (Yrrainfed). The value of the indicator (RSWD, RED and RTD) corresponding to Yrrainfed was determined for each cultivar and indicated as the critical value of water availability. The error in the determination of the critical value was estimated. By means of a simulation model of the water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system, the indicators of soil water availability were calculated for different soil units in an area of Southern Italy, traditionally cultivated with olive. Simulations were performed for two climate scenarios: reference (1961-90) and future climate (2021-50). The potentiality of the indicators RSWD, RED and RTD to describe soil water availability was evaluated using simulated and experimental data. The analysis showed that RED values were correlated to RTD. The analysis demonstrated that RTD was more effective than RED in representing crop water availability RSWD is very well correlated to RTD and the degree of correlation depends of the period of deficit considered. The probability of adaptation of each cultivar was calculated for both climatic periods by comparing the critical values (and their error distribution) with soil availability indicators. Keywords: Olea europaea, soil water deficit, water availability critical value. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)

Simulated water-level and water-quality changes in the bolson-fill aquifer, Post Headquarters area, White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risser, D.W.

1988-01-01

The quantity of freshwater available in the Post Headquarters well field, White Sand Missile Range, New Mexico, is limited and its quality is threatened by saltwater enroachment. A three-dimensional, finite-difference, groundwater flow model and a cross-sectional, density-dependent solute-transport model were constructed to simulate possible future water level declines and water quality changes in the Post Headquarters well field. A six-layer flow model was constructed using hydraulic-conductivity values in the upper 600 ft of saturated aquifer ranging from 0.1 to 10 ft/day, specific yield of 0.15, and average recharge of about 1,590 acre-ft/yr. Water levels simulated by the model closely matched measured water levels for 1948-82. Possible future water level changes for 1983-2017 were simulated using rates of groundwater withdrawal of 1,033 and 2 ,066 acre-ft/year and wastewater return flow of 0 or 30% of the groundwater withdrawal rate. The cross-sectional solute-transport model indicated that the freshwater zone is about 1,500 to 2,000 ft thick beneath the well field. Transient simulations show that solutes probably will move laterally toward the well field rather than from beneath the well field. (USGS)

A National Energy-Water System Assessment Framework (NEWS): Synopsis of Stage 1 Research Strategy and Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vorosmarty, C. J.; Miara, A.; Macknick, J.; Newmark, R. L.; Cohen, S.; Sun, Y.; Tidwell, V. C.; Corsi, F.; Melillo, J. M.; Fekete, B. M.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Glidden, S.; Suh, S.

2017-12-01

The focus of this talk is on climate adaptation and the reliability of power supply infrastructure when viewed through the lens of strategic water issues. Power supply is critically dependent upon water resources, particularly to cool thermoelectric plants, making the sector particularly sensitive to any shifts in the geography or seasonality of water supply. We report on results from an NSF-Funded Water Sustainability and Climate effort aimed at uncovering key energy and economic system vulnerabilities. We have developed the National Energy-Water System assessment framework (NEWS) to systematically evaluate: a) the performance of the nation's electricity sector under multiple climate scenarios; b) the feasibility of alternative pathways to improve climate adaptation; and, c) the impacts of energy technology and investment tradeoffs on the economic productivity, water availability and aquatic ecosystem condition. Our project combines core engineering and geophysical models (ReEDS [Regional Energy Deployment System], TP2M [Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution], and WBM [Water Balance]) through unique digital "handshake" protocols that operate across different institutions and modeling platforms. Combined system outputs are fed into a regional-to-national scale economic input/output model to evaluate economic consequences of climate constraints, technology choices, and environmental regulation. The impact assessments in NEWS are carried out through a series of climate/energy policy scenario studies to 2050. We find that despite significant climate-water impacts on individual plants, the current US power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. However, the magnitude and implications of climate-water impacts vary depending on the configuration of the future power sector. To evaluate future power supply performance, we model alternative electricity sector pathways in combination with varying climate-water conditions. Further, water-linked disruptions in electricity supply yield substantial impacts on regional economies yet system-level shocks can be attenuated through different technology mixes and infrastructure.

Columbia River Component Data Gap Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

L. C. Hulstrom

2007-10-23

This Data Gap Analysis report documents the results of a study conducted by Washington Closure Hanford (WCH) to compile and reivew the currently available surface water and sediment data for the Columbia River near and downstream of the Hanford Site. This Data Gap Analysis study was conducted to review the adequacy of the existing surface water and sediment data set from the Columbia River, with specific reference to the use of the data in future site characterization and screening level risk assessments.

Modeling water resources as a constraint in electricity capacity expansion models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newmark, R. L.; Macknick, J.; Cohen, S.; Tidwell, V. C.; Woldeyesus, T.; Martinez, A.

2013-12-01

In the United States, the electric power sector is the largest withdrawer of freshwater in the nation. The primary demand for water from the electricity sector is for thermoelectric power plant cooling. Areas likely to see the largest near-term growth in population and energy usage, the Southwest and the Southeast, are also facing freshwater scarcity and have experienced water-related power reliability issues in the past decade. Lack of water may become a barrier for new conventionally-cooled power plants, and alternative cooling systems will impact technology cost and performance. Although water is integral to electricity generation, it has long been neglected as a constraint in future electricity system projections. Assessing the impact of water resource scarcity on energy infrastructure development is critical, both for conventional and renewable energy technologies. Efficiently utilizing all water types, including wastewater and brackish sources, or utilizing dry-cooling technologies, will be essential for transitioning to a low-carbon electricity system. This work provides the first demonstration of a national electric system capacity expansion model that incorporates water resources as a constraint on the current and future U.S. electricity system. The Regional Electricity Deployment System (ReEDS) model was enhanced to represent multiple cooling technology types and limited water resource availability in its optimization of electricity sector capacity expansion to 2050. The ReEDS model has high geographic and temporal resolution, making it a suitable model for incorporating water resources, which are inherently seasonal and watershed-specific. Cooling system technologies were assigned varying costs (capital, operations and maintenance), and performance parameters, reflecting inherent tradeoffs in water impacts and operating characteristics. Water rights supply curves were developed for each of the power balancing regions in ReEDS. Supply curves include costs and availability of freshwater (surface and groundwater) and alternative water resources (municipal wastewater and brackish groundwater). In each region, a new power plant must secure sufficient water rights for operation before being built. Water rights constraints thus influence the type of power plant, cooling system, or location of new generating capacity. Results indicate that the aggregate national generating capacity by fuel type and associated carbon dioxide emissions change marginally with the inclusion of water rights. Water resource withdrawals and consumption, however, can vary considerably. Regional water resource dynamics indicate substantial differences in the location where power plant-cooling system technology combinations are built. These localized impacts highlight the importance of considering water resources as a constraint in the electricity sector when evaluating costs, transmission infrastructure needs, and externalities. Further scenario evaluations include assessments of how climate change could affect the availability of water resources, and thus the development of the electricity sector.

Stomatal sensitivity to vapour pressure deficit relates to climate of origin in Eucalyptus species.

PubMed

Bourne, Aimee E; Haigh, Anthony M; Ellsworth, David S

2015-03-01

Selecting plantation species to balance water use and production requires accurate models for predicting how species will tolerate and respond to environmental conditions. Although interspecific variation in water use occurs, species-specific parameters are rarely incorporated into physiologically based models because often the appropriate species parameters are lacking. To determine the physiological control over water use in Eucalyptus, five stands of Eucalyptus species growing in a common garden were measured for sap flux rates and their stomatal response to vapour pressure deficit (D) was assessed. Maximal canopy conductance and whole-canopy stomatal sensitivity to D and reduced water availability were lower in species originating from more arid climates of origin than those from humid climates. Species from humid climates showed a larger decline in maximal sap flux density (JSmax) with reduced water availability, and a lower D at which stomatal closure occurred than species from more arid climates, implying larger sensitivity to water availability and D in these species. We observed significant (P < 0.05) correlations of species climate of origin with mean vessel diameter (R(2) = 0.90), stomatal sensitivity to D (R(2) = 0.83) and the size of the decline in JSmax to restricted water availability (R(2) = 0.94). Thus aridity of climate of origin appears to have a selective role in constraining water-use response among the five Eucalyptus plantation species. These relationships emphasize that within this congeneric group of species, climate aridity constrains water use. These relationships have implications for species choices for tree plantation success against drought-induced losses and the ability to manage Eucalyptus plantations against projected changes in water availability and evaporation in the future. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Decontamination of biological agents from drinking water infrastructure: a literature review and summary.

PubMed

Szabo, Jeff; Minamyer, Scott

2014-11-01

This report summarizes the current state of knowledge on the persistence of biological agents on drinking water infrastructure (such as pipes) along with information on decontamination should persistence occur. Decontamination options for drinking water infrastructure have been explored for some biological agents, but data gaps remain. Data on bacterial spore persistence on common water infrastructure materials such as iron and cement-mortar lined iron show that spores can be persistent for weeks after contamination. Decontamination data show that common disinfectants such as free chlorine have limited effectiveness. Decontamination results with germinant and alternate disinfectants such as chlorine dioxide are more promising. Persistence and decontamination data were collected on vegetative bacteria, such as coliforms, Legionella and Salmonella. Vegetative bacteria are less persistent than spores and more susceptible to disinfection, but the surfaces and water quality conditions in many studies were only marginally related to drinking water systems. However, results of real-world case studies on accidental contamination of water systems with E. coli and Salmonella contamination show that flushing and chlorination can help return a water system to service. Some viral persistence data were found, but decontamination data were lacking. Future research suggestions focus on expanding the available biological persistence data to other common infrastructure materials. Further exploration of non-traditional drinking water disinfectants is recommended for future studies. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Impacts of climate change on abstraction reliability for irrigation during droughts - Policy implications for England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rey, Dolores; Holman, Ian; Rio, Marlene; Prudhomme, Christel

2017-04-01

In humid climates around the world, supplemental irrigation is critical to buffer the effects of rainfall variability and to assure crop yield and quality. In England, abstraction for irrigation is limited by: i) a maximum volumetric limit specified in the abstraction licence and ii) restrictions on abstraction imposed by the water regulator during droughts. Given regulatory efforts to secure sufficient environmental river flows and meet rising water demands due to population growth and climate change, increasing water scarcity is likely to compound the drought challenges faced by irrigated agriculture in this region. The aim of this study is to assess the impact that climate change may have on agricultural abstraction reliability in England within the context of the abstraction and drought management regimes currently in place, and how the water abstraction reform being developed by the Government could reduce the pressure on more and more limited water resources. Firstly, explanatory relationships were derived between an annual agroclimatic aridity index and actual irrigation abstraction. Secondly, the probability of annual abstraction being close to the maximum limit was calculated for each licence for the baseline (1961-90) and future (2071-2098) period. Finally, the current water resource availability triggers for mandatory abstractions restrictions on spray irrigation licences were used to assess the probability of being under restrictions during drought in each period. The results indicate a significant increase in the proportion of the licence being used in all catchments, representing the greatest risk for abstractors in the future, mainly in the most productive agricultural areas located in eastern and southern regions. In contrast, the likelihood of mandatory drought restrictions increases significantly in central and western England due to the lower buffering capacity of groundwater. Based on our findings, this paper discusses how the reform of the water abstraction licensing system being currently designed could help farmers to reduce their water availability risks. For instance, our analysis shows that a huge percentage of licenses in the country are hardly ever used, and hence the potential for reallocation (through water trading or other mechanisms) is worth exploring. Our results highlight the increasing water availability risks for irrigators in this country, and the need of the farming community and the regulator to adapt and collaborate to reduce the impacts and to increase drought resilience and hence food security.

TERENO-MED: Terrestrial Environmental Observatories in the Mediterranean Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krueger, Elisabeth; Friesen, Jan; Kallioras, Andreas; Bogena, Heye; Devaraju, Anusuriya; Vereecken, Harry; Teutsch, Georg

2013-04-01

The Mediterranean region is one of the most imperilled regions in the world concerning present and future water scarcity. The region is delicately positioned at the crossroads between East and West, interlinking Europe, Asia and Africa. Societal and economic changes causing population growth, industrialisation and urbanisation lead to significant increases in food, water and energy demand. Hence, natural resources, such as water and soils, as well as ecosystems are put under pressure and water availability and quality will be severely affected in the future. At the same time, climate and extreme event projections from climate models for the Mediterranean are, unlike for most regions worldwide, consistent in their trends based on various scenarios. This consistency in the model predictions shows that the Mediterranean will face some of the most severe increases in dryness worldwide (based on consecutive dry days and soil moisture), and indicate a decrease of up to 50 % in available water resources within the next 50-100 years. These developments are accentuated by the fact that in many of the Mediterranean countries, natural renewable water resources are fully exploited or over-exploited already today, mainly due to agricultural irrigation, but also touristic activities. At the same time, the Mediterranean region is a global hot spot of freshwater biodiversity, with a high proportion of endemic and endangered species. While trend projections for water availability and climate change derived from global studies are consistent, regional patterns and heterogeneities, as well as local adaptation measures will largely determine the functioning of societies and the health of ecosystems. However, a lack of environmental data prohibits the development of sustainable adaptation measures to water scarcity on a scientific basis. Building on the experiences gained in the national TERENO network, a Mediterranean observatory network will be set-up, coordinated by two Helmholtz Centres and jointly operated with local partners across the Mediterranean region. In a number of Mediterranean mesoscale hydrological catchments TERENO-MED will investigate the long-term effects of global change on the quality and the dynamics of water resources in human-influenced environments under water scarcity. The Helmholtz Centres UFZ (overall coordinator) and FZJ have therefore initiated the set-up of a network of global change observatories in 5-10 Mediterranean river catchments. The TERENO-MED observatories will: - investigate societally relevant water problems in the context of 'typical' Mediterranean environments, - provide long-term and quality-controlled data available to the scientific community, - be operated and maintained through local research institutes and universities, - establish common monitoring platforms and foster synergies between research organizations, - provide solutions to pressing local and regional water problems by building partnerships between scientific partners and regional authorities.

Evaluating the State of Water Management in the Rio Grande/Bravo Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz Partida, Jose Pablo; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel; Diaz Gomez, Romina

2017-04-01

Water resource modeling tools have been developed for many different regions and sub-basins of the Rio Grande/Bravo (RGB). Each of these tools has specific objectives, whether it is to explore drought mitigation alternatives, conflict resolution, climate change evaluation, tradeoff and economic synergies, water allocation, reservoir operations, or collaborative planning. However, there has not been an effort to integrate different available tools, or to link models developed for specific reaches into a more holistic watershed decision-support tool. This project outlines promising next steps to meet long-term goals of improved decision support tools and modeling. We identify, describe, and synthesize water resources management practices in the RGB basin and available water resources models and decision support tools that represent the RGB and the distribution of water for human and environmental uses. The extent body of water resources modeling is examined from a perspective of environmental water needs and water resources management and thereby allows subsequent prioritization of future research and monitoring needs for the development of river system modeling tools. This work communicates the state of the RGB science to diverse stakeholders, researchers, and decision-makers. The products of this project represent a planning tool to support an integrated water resources management framework to maximize economic and social welfare without compromising vital ecosystems.

Closing the 21st century global water gap: costs and effectiveness of adaptation measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bierkens, M. F.; Droogers, P.; Hunink, J.; Buitink, J.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Karssenberg, D.; Van Beek, L. P.; Straatsma, M. W.

2017-12-01

Water scarcity affects a major part of the globe, and is expected to increase significantly until 2100 as a result of climate change and socioeconomic developments. Yet, global projections are unavailable on the effectiveness and costs of adaptation measures to close the future water gap under global change. Here, we present a 21st century projection of the closure of the water gap under two contrasting climate and socio-economic scenarios: RCP2.6/SSP1(s1) and RCP8.5/SSP5(s5). We coupled a global hydrological model to water demand and redistribution model, and forced them with five General Circulation Models (GCMs) to assess the future water gap for 1604 water provinces covering most of the global land mass. Subsequently, using so-called water availability cost curves, we determined the water gap reduction that could be achieved by increasingly aggressive and expensive sets of adaptation measures, respectively aimed at improving agriculture, increasing water supply, and reducing water demands. Our results show that for s1, the water gap peaks around 2050 and declines towards 2100. Contrastingly, for s5, the gap increases linearly. Hotspots in water scarcity are found in the USA, India, and China. The proposed adaptation sets reduce the water gap, but for the majority of the hotspots are not sufficient to close the water gap completely. The median annual adaptation costs for the proposed measures amount to less than 2% of the GDP of the affected water provinces. Although these costs are already substantial, they do leave room for additional unorthodox adaptation measures.

Projected Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Regimes in the Philippines

PubMed Central

Kanamaru, Hideki; Keesstra, Saskia; Maroulis, Jerry; David, Carlos Primo C.; Ritsema, Coen J.

2016-01-01

The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the potential impacts of climate change. To fully understand these potential impacts, especially on future hydrological regimes and water resources (2010-2050), 24 river basins located in the major agricultural provinces throughout the Philippines were assessed. Calibrated using existing historical interpolated climate data, the STREAM model was used to assess future river flows derived from three global climate models (BCM2, CNCM3 and MPEH5) under two plausible scenarios (A1B and A2) and then compared with baseline scenarios (20th century). Results predict a general increase in water availability for most parts of the country. For the A1B scenario, CNCM3 and MPEH5 models predict an overall increase in river flows and river flow variability for most basins, with higher flow magnitudes and flow variability, while an increase in peak flow return periods is predicted for the middle and southern parts of the country during the wet season. However, in the north, the prognosis is for an increase in peak flow return periods for both wet and dry seasons. These findings suggest a general increase in water availability for agriculture, however, there is also the increased threat of flooding and enhanced soil erosion throughout the country. PMID:27749908

The Coupling of Ecosystem Productivity and Water Availability in Dryland Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, R. L.; Biederman, J. A.; Barron-Gafford, G.

2014-12-01

Land cover and climatic change will alter biosphere-atmosphere exchanges of water vapor and carbon dioxide depending, in part, on feedbacks between biotic activity and water availability. Eddy covariance observations allow us to estimate ecosystem-scale productivity and respiration, and these datasets are now becoming sufficiently mature to advance understanding of these ecohydrological interactions. Here we use a network of sites in semiarid western North America representing gradients of water availability and functional plant type. We examine how precipitation (P) controls evapotranspiration (ET), net ecosystem production (NEP), and its component fluxes of ecosystem respiration (Reco) and gross ecosystem production (GEP). Despite the high variability in seasonal and annual precipitation timing and amounts that we expect to influence ecosystem function, we find persistent overall relationships between P or ET and the fluxes of NEP, Reco and GEP across the network, indicating a commonality and resilience in ecosystem soil and plant response to water availability. But we also observe several important site differences such as prior seasonal legacy effects on subsequent fluxes which vary depending on dominant plant functional type. For example, multiyear droughts, episodic cool-season droughts, and hard winter freezes seem to affect the herbaceous species differently than the woody ones. Nevertheless, the overall, strong coupling between hydrologic and ecologic processes at these sites bolsters our ability to predict the response of dryland ecosystems to future precipitation change.

Characterization of the hydrologic resources of San Miguel County, New Mexico, and identification of hydrologic data gaps, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matherne, Anne Marie; Stewart, Anne M.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with San Miguel County, New Mexico, conducted a study to assess publicly available information regarding the hydrologic resources of San Miguel County and to identify data gaps in that information and hydrologic information that could aid in the management of available water resources. The USGS operates four continuous annual streamgages in San Miguel County. Monthly discharge at these streamgages is generally bimodally distributed, with most runoff corresponding to spring runoff and to summer monsoonal rains. Data compiled since 1951 on the geology and groundwater resources of San Miguel County are generally consistent with the original characterization of depth and availability of groundwater resources and of source aquifers. Subsequent exploratory drilling identified deep available groundwater in some locations. Most current (2011) development of groundwater resources is in western San Miguel County, particularly in the vicinity of El Creston hogback, the hogback ridge just west of Las Vegas, where USGS groundwater-monitoring wells indicate that groundwater levels are declining. Regarding future studies to address identified data gaps, the ability to evaluate and quantify surface-water resources, both as runoff and as potential groundwater recharge, could be enhanced by expanding the network of streamgages and groundwater-monitoring wells throughout the county. A series of seepage surveys along the lengths of the rivers could help to determine locations of surface-water losses to and gains from the local groundwater system and could help to quantify the component of streamflow attributable to irrigation return flow; associated synoptic water-quality sampling could help to identify potential effects to water quality attributable to irrigation return flow. Effects of groundwater withdrawals on streamflow could be assessed by constructing monitoring wells along transects between production wells and stream reaches of interest to monitor decline or recovery of the water table, to quantify the timing and extent of water-table response, and to identify the spatial extent of capture zones. Assessment of groundwater potential could be aided by a county-wide distribution of water-level information and by a series of maps of groundwater potential, compiled for each individual aquifer, including saline aquifers, for which the potential for municipal use through desalination could be explored. A county-wide geographic information system hydrologic geodatabase could provide a comprehensive picture of water use in San Miguel County and could be used by San Miguel County as a decision-support tool for future management decisions.

Toxicological and ecotoxicological assessment of water tracers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behrens, H.; Beims, U.; Dieter, H.; Dietze, G.; Eikmann, T.; Grummt, T.; Hanisch, H.; Henseling, H.; Käß, W.; Kerndorff, H.; Leibundgut, C.; Müller-Wegener, U.; Rönnefahrt, I.; Scharenberg, B.; Schleyer, R.; Schloz, W.; Tilkes, F.

2001-06-01

Uncertainties regarding possible negative effects on the environment or on human health of authorizing tracing experiments in groundwater and surface waters led to the establishment of a Working Group at the German Federal Environmental Agency (Umweltbundesamt - UBA) for conducting a toxicological and ecotoxicological assessment. A total of 17 water tracers was assessed by the Working Group on the basis of the results of toxicological tests, the available literature, and the group's expert knowledge. In the future, tracers that pose a risk to the environment or to human health should no longer be used. Nevertheless, there are a number of tracers that could be used in hydrogeological and hydrological investigations for water-pollution-control purposes with no adverse environmental impact.

Neglected waterborne parasitic protozoa and their detection in water.

PubMed

Plutzer, Judit; Karanis, Panagiotis

2016-09-15

Outbreak incidents raise the question of whether the less frequent aetiological agents of outbreaks are really less frequent in water. Alternatively, waterborne transmission could be relevant, but the lack of attention and rapid, sensitive methods to recover and detect the exogenous stages in water may keep them under-recognized. High quality information on the prevalence and detection of less frequent waterborne protozoa, such as Cyclospora cayetanensis, Toxoplasma gondii, Isospora belli, Balantidium coli, Blastocystis hominis, Entamoeba histolytica and other free-living amoebae (FLA), are not available. This present paper discusses the detection tools applied for the water surveillance of the neglected waterborne protozoa mentioned above and provides future perspectives. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Water Resources by 2100 in Mountains with Declining Glaciers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beniston, M.

2015-12-01

Future shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns, and changes in the behavior of snow and ice - and possibly the quasi-disappearance of glaciers - in many mountain regions will change the quantity, seasonality, and possibly also the quality of water originating in mountains and uplands. As a result, changing water availability will affect both upland and populated lowland areas. Economic sectors such as agriculture, tourism or hydropower may enter into rivalries if water is no longer available in sufficient quantities or at the right time of the year. The challenge is thus to estimate as accurately as possible future changes in order to prepare the way for appropriate adaptation strategies and improved water governance. The European ACQWA project, coordinated by the author, aimed to assess the vulnerability of water resources in mountain regions such as the European Alps, the Central Chilean Andes, and the mountains of Central Asia (Kyrgyzstan) where declining snow and ice are likely to strongly affect hydrological regimes in a warmer climate. Based on RCM (Regional Climate Model) simulations, a suite of cryosphere, biosphere and economic models were then used to quantify the environmental, economic and social impacts of changing water resources in order to assess how robust current water governance strategies are and what adaptations may be needed to alleviate the most negative impacts of climate change on water resources and water use. Hydrological systems will respond in quantity and seasonality to changing precipitation patterns and to the timing of snow-melt in the studied mountain regions, with a greater risk of flooding during the spring and droughts in summer and fall. The direct and indirect impacts of a warming climate will affect key economic sectors such as tourism, hydropower, agriculture and the insurance industry that will be confronted to more frequent natural disasters. The results from the ACQWA project suggest that there is a need for a more integrated and comprehensive approach to water use and management. In particular, beyond the conventional water basin management perspective, there is a need to consider other socio-economic factors and the manner in which water policies interact with, or are affected by, other policies at the local, national, and supra-national levels.

Inequality or injustice in water use for food?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carr, J. A.; Seekell, D. A.; D'Odorico, P.

2015-02-01

The global distributions of water availability and population density are uneven and therefore inequality exists in human access to freshwater resources. Is this inequality unjust or only regrettable? To examine this question we formulated and evaluated elementary principles of water ethics relative to human rights for water, and the need for global trade to improve societal access to water by transferring ‘virtual water’ embedded in plant and animal commodities. We defined human welfare benchmarks and evaluated patterns of water use with and without trade over a 25-year period to identify the influence of trade and inequality on equitability of water use. We found that trade improves mean water use and wellbeing, relative to human welfare benchmarks, suggesting that inequality is regrettable but not necessarily unjust. However, trade has not significantly contributed to redressing inequality. Hence, directed trade decisions can improve future conditions of water and food scarcity through reduced inequality.

Using Global Climate Data to Inform Long-Term Water Planning Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves, D. G.; Lempert, R.

2008-12-01

Water managers throughout the world are working to consider climate change in their long-term water planning processes. The best available information regarding plausible future hydrologic conditions are largely derived from global circulation models and from paleoclimate data. To date there lacks a single approach for (1) utilizing these data in water management planning tools for analysis and (2) evaluating the myriad of possible adaptation options. This talk will describe several approaches being used at RAND to incorporate global projections of climate change into local, regional, and state-wide long-term water planning. It will draw on current work with the California Department of Water Resources and other local Western water agencies, and a recently completed project with the Inland Empire Utilities Agency. Work to date suggests that climate information can be assimilated into local water planning tools to help identify robust climate adaptation water management strategies.

Hydrogeology and sustainable future groundwater abstraction from the Agua Verde aquifer in the Atacama Desert, northern Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urrutia, Javier; Jódar, Jorge; Medina, Agustín; Herrera, Christian; Chong, Guillermo; Urqueta, Harry; Luque, José A.

2018-03-01

The hyper-arid conditions prevailing in Agua Verde aquifer in northern Chile make this system the most important water source for nearby towns and mining industries. Due to the growing demand for water in this region, recharge is investigated along with the impact of intense pumping activity in this aquifer. A conceptual model of the hydrogeological system is developed and implemented into a two-dimensional groundwater-flow numerical model. To assess the impact of climate change and groundwater extraction, several scenarios are simulated considering variations in both aquifer recharge and withdrawals. The estimated average groundwater lateral recharge from Precordillera (pre-mountain range) is about 4,482 m3/day. The scenarios that consider an increase of water withdrawal show a non-sustainable groundwater consumption leading to an over-exploitation of the resource, because the outflows surpasses inflows, causing storage depletion. The greater the depletion, the larger the impact of recharge reduction caused by the considered future climate change. This result indicates that the combined effects of such factors may have a severe impact on groundwater availability as found in other groundwater-dependent regions located in arid environments. Furthermore, the scenarios that consider a reduction of the extraction flow rate show that it may be possible to partially alleviate the damage already caused to the aquifer by the continuous extractions since 1974, and it can partially counteract climate change impacts on future groundwater availability caused by a decrease in precipitation (and so in recharge), if the desalination plant in Taltal increases its capacity.

Coupling a glacier evolution model and a hydrological model to simulate future runoff scenarios in the Oetztal Alps, Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoll, Elena; Oesterle, Felix; Hanzer, Florian; Nemec, Johanna; Berlin, Stefan; Schöber, Johannes; Huttenlau, Matthias; Strasser, Ulrich; Achleitner, Stefan; Förster, Kristian

2017-04-01

Fluctuations of glacier and snow runoff play a key role in water management of alpine catchments. Consequently, the catchment water balance is strongly influenced by the variability of the seasonal snow cover and the glacier melt. The huge water storages enable a shift of the hydrological response of glaciers across time scales, leading to response times in the range of decades. In the future, an initial increase of water availability connected to higher temperatures and respective melt rates is expected to turn into a decrease as the glaciers dwindle. One key question is to predict the "moment of peak discharge" when water availability will start to decrease as a consequence of the reduction of glacierized areas. To assess the influence of a warming climate on runoff regimes of glaciated catchments, we couple a simple glacier evolution model (GEM), based on a statistical approach, with a semi-distributed hydrological model (HQsim). Climate scenarios are taken from downscaled EURO-CORDEX data for the scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively. The results indicate that the impact of the glaciers on runoff regimes will very likely change towards the second half of the 21st century. Given the scenarios in which most glaciers will attain their minimum extent and sustain only at high elevation levels, the resulting runoff regime is dominated by precipitation and seasonal snow cover, since the "moment of peak discharge" is assumed to occur in the first half of the 21st century.

The urban harvest approach as framework and planning tool for improved water and resource cycles.

PubMed

Leusbrock, I; Nanninga, T A; Lieberg, K; Agudelo-Vera, C M; Keesman, K J; Zeeman, G; Rijnaarts, H H M

2015-01-01

Water and resource availability in sufficient quantity and quality for anthropogenic needs represents one of the main challenges in the coming decades. To prepare for upcoming challenges such as increased urbanization and climate change related consequences, innovative and improved resource management concepts are indispensable. In recent years we have developed and applied the urban harvest approach (UHA). The UHA aims to model and quantify the urban water cycle on different temporal and spatial scales. This approach allowed us to quantify the impact of the implementation of water saving measures and new water treatment concepts in cities. In this paper we will introduce the UHA and its application for urban water cycles. Furthermore, we will show first results for an extension to energy cycles and highlight future research items (e.g. nutrients, water-energy-nexus).

Metabolic modelling to support long term strategic decisions on water supply systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciriello, Valentina; Felisa, Giada; Lauriola, Ilaria; Pomanti, Flavio; Di Federico, Vittorio

2017-04-01

Water resources are essential for the economic development and sustenance of anthropic activities belonging to the civil, agricultural and industrial sectors. Nevertheless, availability of water resources is not uniformly distributed in space and time. Moreover, the increasing water demand, mainly due to population growth and expansion of agricultural crops, may cause increasing water stress conditions, if combined with the effects of climate change. Under these circumstances, it is necessary to improve the resilience of water supply systems both in terms of infrastructures and environmental compliance. Metabolic modelling approaches represent a flexible tool able to provide support to decision making in the long term, based on sustainability criteria. These approaches mimic the water supply network through a set of material and energy fluxes that interact and influence each other. By analyzing these fluxes, a suite of key performance indicators is evaluated in order to identify which kind of interventions may be applied to increase the sustainability of the system. Here, we adopt these concepts to analyze the water supply network of Reggio-Emilia (Italy) which is supported by water withdrawals from both surface water and groundwater bodies. We analyze different scenarios, including possible reduction of water withdrawals from one of the different sources as a consequence of a decrease in water availability under present and future scenarios. On these basis, we identify preventive strategies for a dynamic management of the water supply system.

Summary of hydrogeology and simulation of ground-water flow and land-surface subsidence in the northern part of the Gulf Coast aquifer system, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kasmarek, Mark C.; Robinson, James L.

2004-01-01

The northern part of the Gulf Coast aquifer system in Texas, which includes the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers, supplies most of the water used for industrial, municipal, agricultural, and commercial purposes for an approximately 25,000- square-mile (mi2) area that includes the Beaumont and Houston metropolitan areas. The area has an abundant amount of potable ground water, but withdrawals of large quantities of ground water have resulted in potentiometric-surface declines in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and land-surface subsidence from depressurization and compaction of clay layers interbedded in the aquifer sediments. This fact sheet summarizes a study done in cooperation with the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) and the Harris-Galveston Coastal Subsidence District (HGCSD) as a part of the TWDB Ground-Water Availability Modeling (or Model) (GAM) program. The study was designed to develop and test a ground-water-flow model of the northern part of the Gulf Coast aquifer system in the GAM area (fig. 1) that waterresource managers can use as a tool to address future groundwater- availability issues.

Risk assessment of agricultural water requirement based on a multi-model ensemble framework, southwest of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamani, Reza; Akhond-Ali, Ali-Mohammad; Roozbahani, Abbas; Fattahi, Rouhollah

2017-08-01

Water shortage and climate change are the most important issues of sustainable agricultural and water resources development. Given the importance of water availability in crop production, the present study focused on risk assessment of climate change impact on agricultural water requirement in southwest of Iran, under two emission scenarios (A2 and B1) for the future period (2025-2054). A multi-model ensemble framework based on mean observed temperature-precipitation (MOTP) method and a combined probabilistic approach Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) and change factor (CF) have been used for downscaling to manage the uncertainty of outputs of 14 general circulation models (GCMs). The results showed an increasing temperature in all months and irregular changes of precipitation (either increasing or decreasing) in the future period. In addition, the results of the calculated annual net water requirement for all crops affected by climate change indicated an increase between 4 and 10 %. Furthermore, an increasing process is also expected regarding to the required water demand volume. The most and the least expected increase in the water demand volume is about 13 and 5 % for A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. Considering the results and the limited water resources in the study area, it is crucial to provide water resources planning in order to reduce the negative effects of climate change. Therefore, the adaptation scenarios with the climate change related to crop pattern and water consumption should be taken into account.

An operational ensemble prediction system for catchment rainfall over eastern Africa spanning multiple temporal and spatial scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riddle, E. E.; Hopson, T. M.; Gebremichael, M.; Boehnert, J.; Broman, D.; Sampson, K. M.; Rostkier-Edelstein, D.; Collins, D. C.; Harshadeep, N. R.; Burke, E.; Havens, K.

2017-12-01

While it is not yet certain how precipitation patterns will change over Africa in the future, it is clear that effectively managing the available water resources is going to be crucial in order to mitigate the effects of water shortages and floods that are likely to occur in a changing climate. One component of effective water management is the availability of state-of-the-art and easy to use rainfall forecasts across multiple spatial and temporal scales. We present a web-based system for displaying and disseminating ensemble forecast and observed precipitation data over central and eastern Africa. The system provides multi-model rainfall forecasts integrated to relevant hydrological catchments for timescales ranging from one day to three months. A zoom-in features is available to access high resolution forecasts for small-scale catchments. Time series plots and data downloads with forecasts, recent rainfall observations and climatological data are available by clicking on individual catchments. The forecasts are calibrated using a quantile regression technique and an optimal multi-model forecast is provided at each timescale. The forecast skill at the various spatial and temporal scales will discussed, as will current applications of this tool for managing water resources in Sudan and optimizing hydropower operations in Ethiopia and Tanzania.

From nZVI to SNCs: development of a better material for pollutant removal in water.

PubMed

Fang, Ying; Wen, Jia; Zeng, Guangming; Shen, Maocai; Cao, Weicheng; Gong, Jilai; Zhang, Yaxin

2018-03-01

Nanoscale zero-valent iron (nZVI), with its reductive potentials and wide availability, offers degradative remediation for environmental pollutants. However, weaknesses such as easy aggregation, easy oxidation, and nanoscale size have hindered its further applications in the environment to some extent. Therefore, various supported nZVI composites (SNCs) with higher dispersibility, enhanced water stability, and tunable size have been developed to overcome the weaknesses. SNCs family is a great alternative for water purification applications that require high removal efficiency and rapid kinetics, as a result of their multifunctional properties and magnetic separation capacity. In this review, we compare the advantages of SNCs to nZVI for pollutant removal in water, discuss for the first time the synthetic techniques of obtaining SNCs, and analyze the influencing factors and mechanisms associated with the removal of some typical hazardous pollutants (e.g., dyes, heavy metals, nitrogen, and phosphorus) using SNCs. Moreover, limitations and future research needs of such material are discussed. More attention should be paid to the evaluation of toxicity, development of green synthetic routes, and potential application areas of such materials in future research.

A model-based assessment of the effects of projected climate change on the water resources of Jordan.

PubMed

Wade, A J; Black, E; Brayshaw, D J; El-Bastawesy, M; Holmes, P A C; Butterfield, D; Nuimat, S; Jamjoum, K

2010-11-28

This paper is concerned with the quantification of the likely effect of anthropogenic climate change on the water resources of Jordan by the end of the twenty-first century. Specifically, a suite of hydrological models are used in conjunction with modelled outcomes from a regional climate model, HadRM3, and a weather generator to determine how future flows in the upper River Jordan and in the Wadi Faynan may change. The results indicate that groundwater will play an important role in the water security of the country as irrigation demands increase. Given future projections of reduced winter rainfall and increased near-surface air temperatures, the already low groundwater recharge will decrease further. Interestingly, the modelled discharge at the Wadi Faynan indicates that extreme flood flows will increase in magnitude, despite a decrease in the mean annual rainfall. Simulations projected no increase in flood magnitude in the upper River Jordan. Discussion focuses on the utility of the modelling framework, the problems of making quantitative forecasts and the implications of reduced water availability in Jordan.

The future of the ogallala aquifer: We can measure it, but can we manage it?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ensuring the availability of fresh water resources in sufficient quantity and quality to support human populations and surrounding ecosystems represents one of the grand challenges of our time. The Ogallala Aquifer, one of the largest freshwater aquifers in the world, is a prime example of the chall...

The Impacts and Economic Costs of Climate Change in Agriculture and the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, A.; Quiroga, S.; Garrote, L.; Cunningham, R.

2012-04-01

This paper provides monetary estimates of the effects of agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe. The model computes spatial crop productivity changes as a response to climate change linking biophysical and socioeconomic components. It combines available data sets of crop productivity changes under climate change (Iglesias et al 2011, Ciscar et al 2011), statistical functions of productivity response to water and nitrogen inputs, catchment level water availability, and environmental policy scenarios. Future global change scenarios are derived from several socio-economic futures of representative concentration pathways and regional climate models. The economic valuation is conducted by using GTAP general equilibrium model. The marginal productivity changes has been used as an input for the economic general equilibrium model in order to analyse the economic impact of the agricultural changes induced by climate change in the world. The study also includes the analysis of an adaptive capacity index computed by using the socio-economic results of GTAP. The results are combined to prioritize agricultural adaptation policy needs in Europe.

Present and future water resources supply and demand in the Central Andes of Peru: a comprehensive review with focus on the Cordillera Vilcanota

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drenkhan, Fabian; Huggel, Christian; Salzmann, Nadine; Giráldez, Claudia; Suarez, Wilson; Rohrer, Mario; Molina, Edwin; Montoya, Nilton; Miñan, Fiorella

2014-05-01

Glaciers have been an important element of Andean societies and livelihoods as direct freshwater supply for agriculture irrigation, hydropower generation and mining activities. Peru's mainly remotely living population in the Central Andes has to cope with a strong seasonal variation of precipitations and river runoff interannually superimposed by El Niño impacts. Direct glacier and lake water discharge thus constitute a vital continuous water supply and represent a regulating buffer as far as hydrological variability is concerned. This crucial buffer effect is gradually altered by accelerated glacier retreat which leads most likely to an increase of annual river runoff variability. Furthermore, a near-future crossing of the 'peak water' is expected, from where on prior enhanced streamflow decreases and levels out towards a new still unknown minimum discharge. Consequently, a sustainable future water supply especially during low-level runoff dry season might not be guaranteed whereas Peru's water demand increases significantly. Here we present a comprehensive review, the current conditions and perspectives for water resources in the Cusco area with focus on the Vilcanota River, Cordillera Vilcanota, Southern Peru. With 279 km2 the Cordillera Vilcanota represents the second largest glacierized mountain range of the tropics worldwide. Especially as of the second half of the 1980s, it has been strongly affected by massive ice loss with around 30% glacier area decline until present. Furthermore, glacier vanishing triggers the formation of new lakes and increase of lake levels and therefore constitutes determining hazardous drivers for mass movements related to deglaciation effects. The Vilcanota River still lacks more profound hydrological studies. It is likely that its peak water has already been or might be crossed in near-future. This has strong implications for the still at 0.9% (2.2%) annually growing population of the Cusco department (Cusco city). People mostly depend on these water resources but indicate a strong water vulnerability due to a high degree of absolute poverty, 30% and only 67% of access to drinking water. The Vilcanota area has been traditionally the breadbasket for the whole Cusco area. While agriculture is the most important labor sector, a growing export-oriented crop production depends highly on a minimum river streamflow ensuring sufficient water quantity and quality. Hydropower, with 53% of the total electricity nationwide the energy pillar of Peru's economy, might also be heavily affected by diminishing water resources. Nevertheless, improved power plants have to balance out Peru's by 7.5% y-1 increasing energy demand. For instance, the Machu Picchu hydropower plant is currently expanded by 100 MW to a full capacity of 190 MW but does not consider future water availability of the Vilcanota River and local impacts for the population. Our conclusions suggest to focus on an integrative risk-oriented supply-demand water balance model scheme in order to capture the complexity of recent and future water distribution. The integration of both physical and social key variables considering long-term changes in climate-glacier interactions as well as economic and demographic trends, plays a determinant role for the performance quality of that model and future adaptation strategies.

Exploitation of Nanotechnology for the Monitoring of Waterborne Pathogens: State-of-the-Art and Future Research Priorities.

PubMed

Bridle, Helen; Balharry, Dominique; Gaiser, Birgit; Johnston, Helinor

2015-09-15

Contaminated drinking water is one of the most important environmental contributors to the human disease burden. Monitoring of water for the presence of pathogens is an essential part of ensuring drinking water safety. In order to assess water quality it is essential to have methods available to sample and detect the type, level and viability of pathogens in water which are effective, cheap, quick, sensitive, and where possible high throughput. Nanotechnology has the potential to drastically improve the monitoring of waterborne pathogens when compared to conventional approaches. To date, there have been no reviews that outline the applications of nanotechnology in this area despite increasing exploitation of nanotechnology for this purpose. This review is therefore the first overview of the state-of-the-art in the application of nanotechnology to waterborne pathogen sampling and detection schemes. Research in this field has been centered on the use of engineered nanomaterials. The effectiveness and limitations of nanomaterial-based approaches is outlined. A future outlook of the advances that are likely to emerge in this area, as well as recommendations for areas of further research are provided.

Spatial distribution of dinoflagellates from the tropical coastal waters of the South Andaman, India: Implications for coastal pollution monitoring.

PubMed

Narale, Dhiraj Dhondiram; Anil, Arga Chandrashekar

2017-02-15

Dinoflagellate community structure from two semi-enclosed areas along the South Andaman region, India, was investigated to assess the anthropogenic impact on coastal water quality. At the densely inhabited Port Blair Bay, the dominance of mixotrophs in water and Protoperidinoids in sediments was attributed to anthropogenic nutrient enrichment and prey availability. A significant decrease in dinoflagellate abundance from inner to outer bay emphasize the variation in nutrient availability. The dominance of autotrophs and Gonyaulacoid cysts at the North Bay highlight low nutrient conditions with less anthropogenic pressure. The occurrence of oceanic Ornithocercus steinii and Diplopsalis sp. could evince the oceanic water intrusion into the North Bay. Nine potentially harmful and red-tide-forming species including Alexandrium tamarense complex, A. minutum were identified in this study. Although there are no harmful algal bloom (HABs) incidences in this region so far, increasing coastal pollution could support their candidature towards the future HABs initiation and development. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrative sensing and prediction of urban water for sustainable cities (iSPUW)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, D. J.; Fang, N. Z.; Yu, X.; Zink, M.; Gao, J.; Kerkez, B.

2014-12-01

We describe a newly launched project in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex (DFW) area to develop a cyber-physical prototype system that integrates advanced sensing, modeling and prediction of urban water, to support its early adoption by a spectrum of users and stakeholders, and to educate a new generation of future sustainability scientists and engineers. The project utilizes the very high-resolution precipitation and other sensing capabilities uniquely available in DFW as well as crowdsourcing and cloud computing to advance understanding of the urban water cycle and to improve urban sustainability from transient shocks of heavy-to-extreme precipitation under climate change and urbanization. All available water information from observations and models will be fused objectively via advanced data assimilation to produce the best estimate of the state of the uncertain system. Modeling, prediction and decision support tools will be developed in the ensemble framework to increase the information content of the analysis and prediction and to support risk-based decision making.

Commercially Available Activated Carbon Fiber Felt Enables Efficient Solar Steam Generation.

PubMed

Li, Haoran; He, Yurong; Hu, Yanwei; Wang, Xinzhi

2018-03-21

Sun-driven steam generation is now possible and has the potential to help meet future energy needs. Current technologies often use solar condensers to increase solar irradiance. More recently, a technology for solar steam generation that uses heated surface water and low optical concentration is reported. In this work, a commercially available activated carbon fiber felt is used to generate steam efficiently under one sun illumination. The evaporation rate and solar conversion efficiency reach 1.22 kg m -2 h -1 and 79.4%, respectively. The local temperature of the evaporator with a floating activated carbon fiber felt reaches 48 °C. Apart from the high absorptivity (about 94%) of the material, the evaporation performance is enhanced thanks to the well-developed pores for improved water supply and steam escape and the low thermal conductivity, which enables reduced bulk water temperature increase. This study helps to find a promising material for solar steam generation using a water evaporator that can be produced economically (∼6 $/m 2 ) with long-term stability.

Projections of Declining Surface-Water Availability for the Southwestern United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seager, Richard; Ting, Mingfang; Li, Cuihua; Naik, Naomi; Cook, Benjamin; Nakamura, Jennifer; Liu, Haibo

2012-01-01

Global warming driven by rising greenhouse-gas concentrations is expected to cause wet regions of the tropics and mid to high latitudes to get wetter and subtropical dry regions to get drier and expand polewards. Over southwest North America, models project a steady drop in precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P -- E, the net flux of water at the land surface, leading to, for example, a decline in Colorado River flow. This would cause widespread and important social and ecological consequences. Here, using new simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Five, to be assessed in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report Five, we extend previous work by examining changes in P, E, runoff and soil moisture by season and for three different water resource regions. Focusing on the near future, 2021-2040, the new simulations project declines in surface-water availability across the southwest that translate into reduced soil moisture and runoff in California and Nevada, the Colorado River headwaters and Texas.

National water summary 1987: Hydrologic events and water supply and use

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carr, Jerry E.; Chase, Edith B.; Paulson, Richard W.; Moody, David W.

1990-01-01

Water use in the United States, as measured by freshwater withdrawals in 1985, averaged 338,000 Mgal/d (million gallons per day), which is enough water to cover the 48 conterminous States to a depth of about 2.4 inches. Only 92,300 Mgal/d, or 27.3 percent of the water withdrawn, was consumptive use and thus lost to immediate further use; the remainder of the withdrawals (72.7 percent) was return flow available for reuse a number of times as the water flowed to the sea. The 1985 freshwater withdrawals were much less than the average 30 inches of precipitation that falls on the conterminous States each year; consumptive use accounted for only 7 percent of the estimated annual runoff of 1,230,000 Mgal/d. Nonetheless, as the State summaries on water supply and use clearly show, water is not always available when and where it is needed. Balancing water demands with available water supplies constitutes one of the major resource allocation issues that will face the United States in the coming decade.Of the 1985 freshwater withdrawals, 78.3 percent (265,000 Mgal/d) came from surface-water sources (streams and lakes), and 21.7 percent (73,300 Mgal/d) came from ground water. Surface water provided drinking water for about 47 percent of the Nation's total population. It was the source of 59.9 percent of the Nation's public-supply systems. For self-supplied withdrawals, surface water accounted for 1.6 percent of the domestic and commercial uses; 64.0 percent of the industrial and mining use; 99.4 percent of the thermoelectric generation withdrawals, mainly for cooling water; and 65.6 percent of the agricultural withdrawals. Eight States accounted for 43 percent of the surface-water use; California, Colorado, and Idaho used surface water primarily for irrigation, and Dlinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas used surface-water primarily for cooling condensers or reactors in thermoelectric plants.Ground water provided drinking water for 53 percent of the Nation's total population and nearly all the rural population. It was the source of 40.1 percent of the public-supply systems withdrawals. For self-supplied withdrawals, ground water accounted for 11.3 percent of the domestic and commercial use, 17.3 percent of the industrial and mining withdrawals, less than 1 percent of the thermoelectric generation withdrawals, and 34.4 percent of the agricultural withdrawals (irrigation and livestock). Eight States Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas accounted for 66 percent of the ground water used. In each of those States, as in many other States, irrigation was the major use of ground water. Each offstream-use category described in the State summaries public supply, domestic and commercial, industrial and mining, thermoelectric power, and agriculture (irrigation and livestock) followed its own geographic pattern as described below.Consumptive use of water effectively removes the water from immediate further use downstream of the withdrawal point. Of the total amount of consumptive water use in 1985, agricultural use accounted for about 82.5 percent. More than one-half (53 percent) of irrigation water is consumptively used by evapotranspiration or is incorporated into the crop. This is a good indication of the effect that irrigated agriculture can have in a river basin where irrigation is a major activity. The availability of return flows for reuse depends largely on where the water reenters the system. If the return flows are discharged to a stream, they usually can be reused; if they are discharged to a saltwater estuary, they are effectively lost to further use because of water-quality degradation just as if the water had been consumptively used. Similarly, water that recharges a highly transmissive aquifer can be available for reuse either through pumpage from a well or as discharge to a local stream. Thus, much of the water withdrawn for different uses can and does become available for further use although the quality might degrade with each additional use.The allocation and the management of water resources are the responsibilities of the individual States and water institutions within the States. These institutions are evolving in response to the challenges of water management problems. As the individual State summaries indicate, recent State legislation deals with facilitating water transfers within the States as a means of reducing imbalances between water supplies and use, with emphasizing water conservation in times of drought and at places where groundwater depletion is a problem of long standing, and with reducing threats to public health and the environment from water pollution.Most of the State summaries indicate the expectation that water use will continue to increase in the future and that water contamination will continue to be a major water concern. Both issues will require increasingly intensive water management in the future. Whether the water resources under management are considered to be fully appropriated or over appropriated, as in some Western States, or whether the resource could support additional development, as is the situation in most States, improved water-use information will play a key role in future water management efforts.

Projections of Virtual Water Trade Under Agricultural Policy Scenarios in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalin, C.; Hanasaki, N.; Qiu, H.; Mauzerall, D. L.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

2014-12-01

China's economic growth is expected to continue into the next decades, accompanied by a sustained urbanization and industrialization. The associated increase in demand for land, water resources and rich foods will deepen the challenge to sustainably feed the population and balance environmental and agricultural policies. In previous work, Inner Mongolia was identified as a target province for trade or agricultural policies aimed at water-use efficiency improvements, due to its large production relying on particularly significant irrigation water use. In addition, water scarcity issues may arises in the greater Beijing area, which represents the largest urban area of arid Northern China. Increasing residential and industrial water demand in this region may lead to fewer available water for irrigation. For these reasons, it is important to estimate the impacts of specific policies aiming at reducing excessive water use for crop production in Inner Mongolia, as well as exploring ways to mitigate pressure on water resources in dry urban areas. In this study, we use socio-economic projections to assess the future state of China's virtual water trade (VWT) network. We then quantify the effects of agricultural policies on the national VWT system and on the efficiency of food trade in terms of water resources. This study addresses the following questions: (1) How future socio-economic changes will affect China's food trade and associated water transfers? (2) To which extent localized reductions of irrigated area can decrease agricultural water use while maintaining national food security? (3) How would these policies affect China's domestic and international VWT network and induced water resources savings (losses)?

Scenario analysis for sustainable development of Chongming Island: water resources sustainability.

PubMed

Ni, Xiong; Wu, Yanqing; Wu, Jun; Lu, Jian; Wilson, P Chris

2012-11-15

With the socioeconomic and urban development of Chongming Island (the largest alluvial island in the world), water demand is rapidly growing. To make adjustments to the water utilization structure of each industry, allocate limited water resources, and increase local water use efficiency, this study performed a scenario analysis for the water sustainability of Chongming Island. Four different scenarios were performed to assess the water resource availability by 2020. The growth rate for water demand will be much higher than that of water supply under a serious situation prediction. The water supply growth volume will be 2.22 × 10(8)m(3) from 2010 to 2020 under Scenario I and Scenario II while the corresponding water demand growth volume will be 2.74 × 10(8)m(3) and 2.64 × 10(8)m(3), respectively. There will be a rapid growth in water use benefit under both high and low development modes. The water use benefit will be about 50 CNY/m(3) under Scenarios I and II in 2020. The production structure will need to be adjusted for sustainable utilization of water resources. Sewage drainage but not the forest and grass coverage rate will be a major obstacle to future development and environmental quality. According to a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, Scenario II is finally deemed to be the most desirable plan, suggesting that the policy of rapid socioeconomic development and better environmental protection may achieve the most sustainable development of Chongming Island in the future. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using info-Gap Decision Theory for Water Resources Planning Under Severe Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korteling, B.; Brazier, R.; Kapelan, Z.; Dessai, S.

2012-12-01

Water resource managers are required to develop comprehensive water resource plans based on severely uncertain information of the effects of climate change on local hydrology and future socio-economic changes on localised demand. In England and Wales, current water resource planning methodologies include a headroom estimation process that quantifies uncertainty based on only one point of an assumed range of deviations from the expected climate and projected demand 25 years into the future. There are many situations where there is not enough knowledge to be able to estimate a representative probability of occurrence, or to be confident that the tails of an assumed probability distribution will not exhibit unexpected skewness, or that the kurtosis of a distribution differs from the norm. These situations can be considered severely uncertain. Information-Gap decision theory offers a method to sample a wider range of uncertainty than with traditional methods, and as a result, compare the robustness of various water resource management options under conditions of severe uncertainty. A more robust management option is one that delivers the same level of performance as other options at higher levels of uncertainty. A case study is based on a Water Supply Area that encompasses the county of Cornwall in southwest England containing 17 reservoirs and 19 demand nodes. The performance success of management options are evaluated primarily by measures of water availability including a reservoir risk measure that tests the probability and magnitude that strategic reservoir storage levels fall below the drought management curve under adverse conditions and also a safety margin deficit that tests how quickly reservoir levels can return to optimum operating levels in favourable conditions. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is used to test the effectiveness of different management options with different weightings for metrics other than water availability including; capital and operating costs, costs to customers, carbon emissions, environmental impact and social acceptability. Findings show that beyond the uncertainty range explored with the traditional headroom method, preference reversals can occur, i.e. some management options that underperform at lower uncertainties, outperform at higher levels of uncertainty. This study also shows that when 50% or more of the population adopts demand side management, efficiency related measures and innovative options such as rainwater collection can perform equally well or better than some supply side options. The additional use of MCDA shifts the focus away from reservoir expansion options that perform best with respect to water availability, to combined strategies that include innovative demand side management actions of rainwater collection and greywater reuse as well as efficiency measures and additional regional transfers. This research illustrates how an Info-Gap based approach can offer a comprehensive picture of potential supply/demand futures and a rich variety of information to support adaptive management of water systems under severe uncertainty.

Water governance within Kenya's Upper Ewaso Ng'iro Basin: Assessing the performance of water projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCord, P. F.; Evans, T. P.; Dell'Angelo, J.; Gower, D.; McBride, L.; Caylor, K. K.

2013-12-01

Climate change processes are projected to change the availability and seasonality of streamflow with dramatic implications for irrigated agricultural systems. Within mountain environments, this alteration in water availability may be quite pronounced over a relatively short distance as upstream users with first access to river water directly impact the availability of water to downstream users. Livelihood systems that directly depend on river water for both domestic consumption and practices such as irrigated agriculture are particularly vulnerable. The Mount Kenya region is an exemplary case of a semi-arid upstream-downstream system in which water availability rapidly decreases and directly impacts the livelihoods of river water users existing across this steep environmental gradient. To effectively manage river water within these water-scarce environs, water projects have been established along the major rivers of the Mount Kenya region. These water projects are responsible for managing water within discrete sub-catchments of the region. While water projects develop rules that encourage the responsible use of water and maintenance of the project itself, the efficiency of water allocation to the projects' members remains unclear. This research analyzes water projects from five sub-catchments on the northwest slopes of Mount Kenya. It utilizes data from household surveys and water project management surveys as well as stream gauge data and flow measurements within individual water projects to assess the governance structure and performance of water projects. The performance of water projects is measured through a variety of household level metrics including: farm-level water flow and volume over time, mean and variability in maize yield, per capita crop productivity, household-level satisfaction with water availability, number of days where water volume was insufficient for irrigation, and quantity harvested compared with expected quantity harvested. We present results demonstrating the heterogeneity of these individual measures and discuss the influence of topography, network design, household behaviors and water governance on the overall performance of these water projects. This work is the foundation for an agent-based model of these water projects that investigates the impact of climate change and population pressure on sustained agricultural production in the region. Additionally, the study highlights the utility of pairing distinct fields of scholarship by utilizing both survey responses and hydrological data to study complex social-ecological systems. This pairing allows for insights regarding governance structures that are effectively managing river water in the present and helps to understand the structures that may be suitable for future water management.

European Union policy on pesticides: implications for agriculture in Ireland.

PubMed

Jess, Stephen; Kildea, Steven; Moody, Aidan; Rennick, Gordon; Murchie, Archie K; Cooke, Louise R

2014-11-01

European Community (EC) legislation has limited the availability of pesticide active substances used in effective plant protection products. The Pesticide Authorisation Directive 91/414/EEC introduced the principle of risk assessment for approval of pesticide active substances. This principle was modified by the introduction of Regulation (EC) 1107/2009, which applies hazard, the intrinsic toxicity of the active substance, rather than risk, the potential for hazard to occur, as the approval criterion. Potential impacts of EC pesticide legislation on agriculture in Ireland are summarised. While these will significantly impact on pesticide availability in the medium to long term, regulations associated with water quality (Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC and Drinking Water Directive 1998/83/EC) have the potential to restrict pesticide use more immediately, as concerns regarding public health and economic costs associated with removing pesticides from water increase. This rationale will further reduce the availability of effective pesticide active substances, directly affecting crop protection and increasing pesticide resistance within pest and disease populations. In addition, water quality requirements may also impact on important active substances used in plant protection in Ireland. The future challenge for agriculture in Ireland is to sustain production and profitability using reduced pesticide inputs within a framework of integrated pest management. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

Conceptualizing the dynamics of a drought affected agricultural community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuil, Linda; Carr, Gemma; Viglione, Alberto; Bloeschl, Guenter

2015-04-01

Climate and especially water availability and variability play an important role in the development of our societies. This can be seen through the vast investments that are made in reaching water security and the economic impact regions experience when the rains fail. However, the limit of available fresh water is increasingly felt as our population increases and the demand for water continues to rise. But how do we as society respond? Are periods of drought making us more resilient? The answer to this question is sought through the development of a stylized model that is built within the spirit of the Easter Island model by Brander and Taylor and aimed at capturing the essence of the dynamics of water supply and demand. By explicitly incorporating feedbacks, but keeping the framework simple, the model seeks to understand qualitative behavior of our socio-hydrological system as opposed to predicting exact pathways. The model shows that carrying capacity dynamics are a determining factor for continued growth. Future work will explore the underlying relationships further, among others, through examination of case studies.

The Tropical Andes without Snow and Ice - Impacts, Uncertainties and Challenges Ahead

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vuille, M. F.

2015-12-01

Climate change has lead to significant glacier retreat in the tropical Andes over the past several decades. Despite the apparent hiatus in warming along the Pacific coast, temperature continues to rise at higher elevations, putting smaller glaciers in lower lying mountain ranges on the verge of complete disappearance. As a result water availability and water quality in glacier-fed river systems will be reduced during the dry season. The lack of a seasonal snow cover in the tropics, which provides for an additional hydrologic buffer in mid-latitude mountain ranges, further exacerbates the situation. Altered precipitation regimes, including changes in total precipitation amount, changes in the rain/snow ratio, or changes in the wet season length will also affect water availability, but projections of these changes are currently fraught with uncertainty. The importance of glacier-fed water supply varies between regions and depends on the presence of other water regulators (reservoirs, wetlands), the length of the dry season and the trajectory of water demand (population growth, expanding economic activities). Here we will review downscaled CMIP5 model results for some of these mountain ranges and discuss the consequences of future warming and projected precipitation changes for the Andean cryosphere, while considering uncertainties associated with downscaling methodology, model dependency and choice of emission scenario. Adaptation strategies will be evaluated in the light of these results, discussing the need to pursue no-regret strategies, when implementing water conservation measures. Lessons learned from past adaptation and capacity building activities in the region will be discussed, emphasizing a) the need to strengthen the institutional standing of authorities involved in glacier research, b) alignment of capacity building and international cooperation with the national and regional needs and c) improvements to long-term climate and glacier monitoring programs in the region, allowing for a more adequate future management of water resources.

Runoff simulation in the Ferghana Valley (Central Asia) using conceptual hydrological HBV-light model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radchenko, Iuliia; Breuer, Lutz; Forkutsa, Irina; Frede, Hans-Georg

2013-04-01

Glaciers and permafrost on the ranges of the Tien Shan mountain system are primary sources of water in the Ferghana Valley. The water artery of the valley is the Syr Darya River that is formed by confluence of the Naryn and Kara Darya rivers, which originate from the mountain glaciers of the Ak-Shyrak and the Ferghana ranges accordingly. The Ferghana Valley is densely populated and main activity of population is agriculture that heavily depends on irrigation especially in such arid region. The runoff reduction is projected in future due to global temperature rise and glacier shrinkage as a consequence. Therefore, it is essential to study climate change impact on water resources in the area both for ecological and economic aspects. The evaluation of comparative contribution of small upper catchments (n=24) with precipitation predominance in discharge and the large Naryn and Karadarya River basins, which are fed by glacial melt water, to the Fergana Valley water balance under current and future climatic conditions is general aim of the study. Appropriate understanding of the hydrological cycle under current climatic conditions is significant for prognosis of water resource availability in the future. Thus, conceptual hydrological HBV-light model was used for analysing of the water balance of the small upper catchments that surround the Ferghana Valley. Three trial catchments (the Kugart River basin, 1010 km²; the Kurshab River basin, 2010 km2; the Akbura River basin, 2260 km²) with relatively good temporal quality data were chosen to setup the model. Due to limitation of daily temperature data the MODAWEC weather generator, which converts monthly temperature data into daily based on correlation with rainfall, was tested and applied for the HBV-light model.

Water-saving interventions assessment framework: an application for the Urmia Lake Restoration Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shadkam, Somayeh; Oel, Pieter; Kabat, Pavel; Ludwig, Fulco

2017-04-01

Increasing water demand often results in unsustainable water use leaving insufficient amounts of water for sustaining natural environments. Therefore, to save natural resources water-saving interventions have been introduced to the environmental policy agenda in many (semi)-arid regions. Many policies, however, have failed reaching their objectives to increase water availability for the environment. This calls for a comprehensive tool to assess water-saving policies. Therefore, this study introduces a constructive framework to assess the policies by estimating five components: 1) Total water demand under socio-economic scenarios, 2) Water supply under climate change scenarios, 3) Water withdrawal for different sectors, 4) Water depletion and 5) Environmental flow. The framework, was applied to assess Urmia Lake Restoration Program (ULRP), which aims to restore the drying Urmia Lake in north-western Iran by increasing the lake inflow by 3.1×106m3yr-1. Results suggest that although the ULRP helps to increase inflow by up to 57% it is unlikely to fully reach its target. The analysis shows that there are three main reasons for the potential poor performance. The first reason is decreasing return flows due to increasing irrigation efficiency. This means that the expected increase in lake inflow volume is smaller than the volume saved by increasing irrigation efficiency. The second reason is increased depletion which is due to neglecting the fact that agricultural water demand is currently higher than available water for agriculture. As a result, increasing water use efficiency may result in increased water depletion. The third reason is ignoring the potential impact of climate change, which might decrease future water availability by 3% to 15%. Our analysis suggests that to reach the intervention target, measures need to focus on reducing Water demand and Water depletion rather than on reducing Water withdrawals. The assessment framework can be used to comprehensively assess water-saving intervention plans, particularly in water-stressed basins.

Prediction of future hydrological regimes in poorly gauged high altitude basins: the case study of the upper Indus, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bocchiola, D.; Diolaiuti, G.; Soncini, A.; Mihalcea, C.; D'Agata, C.; Mayer, C.; Lambrecht, A.; Rosso, R.; Smiraglia, C.

2011-04-01

In the mountain regions of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH) the "third polar ice cap" of our planet, glaciers play the role of "water towers" by providing significant amount of melt water, especially in the dry season, essential for agriculture, drinking purposes, and hydropower production. Recently, most glaciers in the HKH have been retreating and losing mass, mainly due to significant regional warming, thus calling for assessment of future water resources availability for populations down slope. However, hydrology of these high altitude catchments is poorly studied and little understood. Most such catchments are poorly gauged, thus posing major issues in flow prediction therein, and representing in facts typical grounds of application of PUB concepts, where simple and portable hydrological modeling based upon scarce data amount is necessary for water budget estimation, and prediction under climate change conditions. In this preliminarily study, future (2060) hydrological flows in a particular watershed (Shigar river at Shigar, ca. 7000 km2), nested within the upper Indus basin and fed by seasonal melt from major glaciers, are investigated. The study is carried out under the umbrella of the SHARE-Paprika project, aiming at evaluating the impact of climate change upon hydrology of the upper Indus river. We set up a minimal hydrological model, tuned against a short series of observed ground climatic data from a number of stations in the area, in situ measured ice ablation data, and remotely sensed snow cover data. The future, locally adjusted, precipitation and temperature fields for the reference decade 2050-2059 from CCSM3 model, available within the IPCC's panel, are then fed to the hydrological model. We adopt four different glaciers' cover scenarios, to test sensitivity to decreased glacierized areas. The projected flow duration curves, and some selected flow descriptors are evaluated. The uncertainty of the results is then addressed, and use of the model for nearby catchments discussed. The proposed approach is valuable as a tool to investigate the hydrology of poorly gauged high altitude areas, and to project forward their hydrological behavior pending climate change.

Prediction of future hydrological regimes in poorly gauged high altitude basins: the case study of the upper Indus, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bocchiola, D.; Diolaiuti, G.; Soncini, A.; Mihalcea, C.; D'Agata, C.; Mayer, C.; Lambrecht, A.; Rosso, R.; Smiraglia, C.

2011-07-01

In the mountain regions of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH) the "third polar ice cap" of our planet, glaciers play the role of "water towers" by providing significant amount of melt water, especially in the dry season, essential for agriculture, drinking purposes, and hydropower production. Recently, most glaciers in the HKH have been retreating and losing mass, mainly due to significant regional warming, thus calling for assessment of future water resources availability for populations down slope. However, hydrology of these high altitude catchments is poorly studied and little understood. Most such catchments are poorly gauged, thus posing major issues in flow prediction therein, and representing in fact typical grounds of application of PUB concepts, where simple and portable hydrological modeling based upon scarce data amount is necessary for water budget estimation, and prediction under climate change conditions. In this preliminarily study, future (2060) hydrological flows in a particular watershed (Shigar river at Shigar, ca. 7000 km2), nested within the upper Indus basin and fed by seasonal melt from major glaciers, are investigated. The study is carried out under the umbrella of the SHARE-Paprika project, aiming at evaluating the impact of climate change upon hydrology of the upper Indus river. We set up a minimal hydrological model, tuned against a short series of observed ground climatic data from a number of stations in the area, in situ measured ice ablation data, and remotely sensed snow cover data. The future, locally adjusted, precipitation and temperature fields for the reference decade 2050-2059 from CCSM3 model, available within the IPCC's panel, are then fed to the hydrological model. We adopt four different glaciers' cover scenarios, to test sensitivity to decreased glacierized areas. The projected flow duration curves, and some selected flow descriptors are evaluated. The uncertainty of the results is then addressed, and use of the model for nearby catchments discussed. The proposed approach is valuable as a tool to investigate the hydrology of poorly gauged high altitude areas, and to project forward their hydrological behavior pending climate change.

Water use efficiency and crop water balance of rainfed wheat in a semi-arid environment: sensitivity of future changes to projected climate changes and soil type

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yanmin; Liu, De Li; Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin; O'Leary, Garry; Macadam, Ian; Yang, Yonghui

2016-02-01

Wheat production is expected to be affected by climate change through changing components of the crop water balance such as rainfall, evapotranspiration (ET), runoff and drainage. We used the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-wheat model to simulate the potential impact of climate change on field water balance, ET and water use efficiency (WUE) under the SRES A2 emissions scenario. We ran APSIM with daily climate data statistically downscaled from 18 Global Circulation Models (GCMs). Twelve soil types of varying plant available water holding capacity (PAWC) at six sites across semi-arid southeastern Australia were considered. Biases in the GCM-simulated climate data were bias-corrected against observations for the 1961-1999 baseline period. However, biases in the APSIM output data relative to APSIM simulations forced with climate observations remained. A secondary bias correction was therefore performed on the APSIM outputs. Bias-corrected APSIM outputs for a future period (2021-2040) were compared with APSIM outputs generated using observations for the baseline period to obtain future changes. The results show that effective rainfall was decreased over all sites due to decreased growing season rainfall. ET was decreased through reduced soil evaporation and crop transpiration. There were no significant changes in runoff at any site. The variation in deep drainage between sites was much greater than for runoff, ranging from less than a few millimetres at the drier sites to over 100 mm at the wetter. However, in general, the averaged drainage over different soil types were not significantly different between the baseline (1961-1999) and future period of 2021-2040 ( P > 0.05). For the wetter sites, the variations in the future changes in drainage and runoff between the 18 GCMs were larger than those of the drier sites. At the dry sites, the variation in drainage decreased as PAWC increased. Overall, water use efficiency based on transpiration (WUE_T) and ET (WUE_ET) increased by 1.1 to 1.6 and 0.7 to 1.3 kg ha-1 mm-1, respectively, over the baseline historical climate. Significant relationships between changes in wheat yield and PAWC were only seen at three sites. At the dry sites, the impact of a future climate under a soil of high PAWC was less than that under one of low PAWC. Conversely, the opposite response was seen at two wetter sites, highlighting the importance of PAWC and rainfall in determining the interactive response of crops to primary components of the water balance.

Global water dynamics: issues for the 21st century.

PubMed

Simonovic, Slobodan P

2002-01-01

The WorldWater system dynamics model has been developed for modeling the global world water balance and capturing the dynamic character of the main variables affecting water availability and use in the future. Despite not being a novel approach, system dynamics offers a new way of addressing complex systems. WorldWater simulations are clearly demonstrating the strong feedback relation between water availability and different aspects of world development. Results of numerous simulations are contradictory to the assumption made by many global modelers that water is not an issue on the global scale. Two major observations can be made from early simulations: (a) the use of clean water for dilution and transport of wastewater, if not dealt with in other ways, imposes a major stress on the global world water balance; and (b) water use by different sectors is demonstrating quite different dynamics than predicted by classical forecasting tools and other water-models. Inherent linkages between water quantity and quality sectors with food, industry, persistent pollution, technology, and non-renewable resources sectors of the model create shoot and collapse behavior in water use dynamics. This paper discusses a number of different water-related scenarios and their implications on the global water balance. In particular, two extreme scenarios (business as usual - named "Chaos", and unlimited desalination - named "Ocean") are presented in the paper. Based on the conclusions derived from these two extreme cases a set of more moderate and realistic scenarios (named "Conservation") is proposed and their consequences on the global water balance are evaluated.

Understanding London's Water Supply Tradeoffs When Scheduling Interventions Under Deep Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huskova, I.; Matrosov, E. S.; Harou, J. J.; Kasprzyk, J. R.; Reed, P. M.

2015-12-01

Water supply planning in many major world cities faces several challenges associated with but not limited to climate change, population growth and insufficient land availability for infrastructure development. Long-term plans to maintain supply-demand balance and ecosystem services require careful consideration of uncertainties associated with future conditions. The current approach for London's water supply planning utilizes least cost optimization of future intervention schedules with limited uncertainty consideration. Recently, the focus of the long-term plans has shifted from solely least cost performance to robustness and resilience of the system. Identifying robust scheduling of interventions requires optimizing over a statistically representative sample of stochastic inputs which may be computationally difficult to achieve. In this study we optimize schedules using an ensemble of plausible scenarios and assess how manipulating that ensemble influences the different Pareto-approximate intervention schedules. We investigate how a major stress event's location in time as well as the optimization problem formulation influence the Pareto-approximate schedules. A bootstrapping method that respects the non-stationary trend of climate change scenarios and ensures the even distribution of the major stress event in the scenario ensemble is proposed. Different bootstrapped hydrological scenario ensembles are assessed using many-objective scenario optimization of London's future water supply and demand intervention scheduling. However, such a "fixed" scheduling of interventions approach does not aim to embed flexibility or adapt effectively as the future unfolds. Alternatively, making decisions based on the observations of occurred conditions could help planners who prefer adaptive planning. We will show how rules to guide the implementation of interventions based on observations may result in more flexible strategies.

Results of exploratory drilling at Point MacKenzie, Alaska, 1981

USGS Publications Warehouse

Patrick, Leslie

1981-01-01

The Matanuska-Susitna Borough anticipates industrial development near Point MacKenzie, Alaska. Because little hydrologic information is available for the area, the Borough contracted for the drilling of two test wells. It was found that: Both wells penetrated unconsolidated stratified clay, silt, sand, and gravel; each well penetrated a shallow unconfined and deeper confined aquifers; the water levels in the wells rise and fall with the tide; the chemical analyses indicate that the water quality meets the Alaska Drinking Water Standards, except for slightly high levels of manganese and pH; and the potential for saltwater intrusion should be evaluated as part of future studies. (USGS)

Effects of climate change on suitable rice cropping areas, cropping systems and crop water requirements in southern China

DOE PAGES

Ye, Qing; Yang, Xiaoguang; Dai, Shuwei; ...

2015-06-05

Here, we discuss that rice is one of the main crops grown in southern China. Global climate change has significantly altered the local water availability and temperature regime for rice production. In this study, we explored the influence of climate change on suitable rice cropping areas, rice cropping systems and crop water requirements (CWRs) during the growing season for historical (from 1951 to 2010) and future (from 2011 to 2100) time periods. The results indicated that the land areas suitable for rice cropping systems shifted northward and westward from 1951 to 2100 but with different amplitudes.

Olive cultivars adaptability in Southern Italy in present and future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riccardi, M.; Alfieri, S.; Bonfante, A.; Basile, A.; Di Tommasi, P.; Menenti, M.; De Lorenzi, F.

2012-04-01

The intra-specific biodiversity of agricultural crops is very significant and likely to provide the single major opportunity to cope with the effects of the changing climate on agricultural ecosystems. Assessment of adaptive capacity must rely on quantitative descriptions of plant responses to environmental factors (e.g. soil water availability, temperature). Moreover climate scenario needs to be downscaled to the spatial scale relevant to crop and farm management. Distributed models of crop response to environmental forcing might be used for this purpose, but severely constrained by the very scarce knowledge on variety-specific values of model parameters, thus limiting the potential exploitation of intra-specific biodiversity towards adaptation. We have developed an approach towards this objective that relies on two complementary elements: a)a distributed model of the soil plant atmosphere system to downscale climate scenarios to landscape units, where generic model parameters for each species are used; b)a data base on climatic requirements of as many varieties as feasible for each species relevant to the agricultural production system of a given region. By means of this approach, the adaptability of some olive cultivars was evaluated in a composite (hills and plains) area of Southern Italy (Valle Telesina, Campania Region, about 20.000 ha). The yearly average temperature is 22.5 °C and rainfall ranges between 600 and 900 mm. Two different climate scenarios were considered: current climate (1961-1990) and future climate (2021-2050). Future climate scenarios at low spatial resolution were generated with general circulation models (AOGCM) and down-scaled by means of a statistical model (Tomozeiu et al., 2007). The climate was represented by daily observations of minimum, maximum temperature and precipitation on a regular grid with a spatial resolution of 35 km; 50 realizations were used for future climate. The soil water regime of 45 soil units was described for the two climate scenarios by using an hydrological distributed model (SWAP). For 11 olive cultivars, the yield response function to soil water regime was determined through the re-analysis of experimental data (unpublished or derived from scientific literature). According to these responses, cultivar-specific threshold values of soil water (or evapotranspiration) deficit were defined. The soil water regime calculated by the distributed model was compared with the threshold values to identify cultivars compatible with present and expected climates. The operation is repeated for a set of realizations of each climate scenario. This analysis is performed in a distributed manner, i.e. using the time series for each model grid to assess possible variations in the extent and spatial distribution of cultivated area of olive cultivars. In the study area future climate scenarios predict an increase of monthly minimum and maximum air temperature of about 2°C during the summer (June, July and August) and a reduction of rainfall in autumn. Spatial pattern of cultivars distribution, according their threshold values and soil water regime, was determined in the present and future climate scenarios, thus assessing variations in cultivars adaptability to future climate with respect to the present. Key words: climate change, biodiversity, water availability, yield response. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008).

Integrated assessment of future potential global change scenarios and their hydrological impacts in coastal aquifers - a new tool to analyse management alternatives in the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, David; Renau-Pruñonosa, Arianna; Llopis-Albert, Carlos; Morell, Ignacio; Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Senent-Aparicio, Javier; Baena-Ruiz, Leticia

2018-05-01

Any change in the components of the water balance in a coastal aquifer, whether natural or anthropogenic, can alter the freshwater-salt water equilibrium. In this sense climate change (CC) and land use and land cover (LULC) change might significantly influence the availability of groundwater resources in the future. These coastal systems demand an integrated analysis of quantity and quality issues to obtain an appropriate assessment of hydrological impacts using density-dependent flow solutions. The aim of this work is to perform an integrated analysis of future potential global change (GC) scenarios and their hydrological impacts in a coastal aquifer, the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer. It is a Mediterranean aquifer that extends over 75 km2 in which important historical LULC changes have been produced and are planned for the future. Future CC scenarios will be defined by using an equi-feasible and non-feasible ensemble of projections based on the results of a multi-criteria analysis of the series generated from several regional climatic models with different downscaling approaches. The hydrological impacts of these CC scenarios combined with future LULC scenarios will be assessed with a chain of models defined by a sequential coupling of rainfall-recharge models, crop irrigation requirements and irrigation return models (for the aquifer and its neighbours that feed it), and a density-dependent aquifer approach. This chain of models, calibrated using the available historical data, allow testing of the conceptual approximation of the aquifer behaviour. They are also fed with series representatives of potential global change scenarios in order to perform a sensitivity analysis regarding future scenarios of rainfall recharge, lateral flows coming from the hydraulically connected neighbouring aquifer, agricultural recharge (taking into account expected future LULC changes) and sea level rise (SLR). The proposed analysis is valuable for improving our knowledge about the aquifer, and so comprises a tool to design sustainable adaptation management strategies taking into account the uncertainty in future GC conditions and their impacts. The results show that GC scenarios produce significant increases in the variability of flow budget components and in the salinity.

Identifying regions vulnerable to habitat degradation under future irrigation scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terrado, Marta; Sabater, Sergi; Acuña, Vicenç

2016-11-01

The loss and degradation of natural habitats is a primary cause of biodiversity decline. The increasing impacts of climate and land use change affect water availability, ultimately decreasing agricultural production. Areas devoted to irrigation have been increased to compensate this reduction, causing habitat and biodiversity losses, especially in regions undergoing severe water stress. These effects might intensify under global change, probably contributing to a decrease in habitat quality. We selected four European river basins across a gradient of water scarcity and irrigation agriculture. The habitat quality in the basins was assessed as a function of habitat suitability and threats under current and future global change scenarios of irrigation. Results revealed that the most threatened regions under future scenarios of global change were among those suffering of water scarcity and with bigger areas devoted to irrigation. Loss of habitat quality reached 10% in terrestrial and 25% in aquatic ecosystems under climate change scenarios involving drier conditions. The aquatic habitats were the most degraded in all scenarios, since they were affected by threats from both the terrestrial and the aquatic parts of the basin. By identifying in advance the regions most vulnerable to habitat and biodiversity loss, our approach can assist decision makers in deciding the conservation actions to be prioritized for mitigation and adaptation to the effects of climate change, particularly front the development of irrigation plans.

Groundwater availability in the United States: the value of quantitative regional assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dennehy, Kevin F.; Reilly, Thomas E.; Cunningham, William L.

2015-01-01

The sustainability of water resources is under continued threat from the challenges associated with a growing population, competing demands, and a changing climate. Freshwater scarcity has become a fact in many areas. Much of the United States surface-water supplies are fully apportioned for use; thus, in some areas the only potential alternative freshwater source that can provide needed quantities is groundwater. Although frequently overlooked, groundwater serves as the principal reserve of freshwater in the US and represents much of the potential supply during periods of drought. Some nations have requirements to monitor and characterize the availability of groundwater such as the European Union’s Water Framework Directive (EPCEU 2000). In the US there is no such national requirement. Quantitative regional groundwater availability assessments, however, are essential to document the status and trends of groundwater availability for the US and make informed water-resource decisions possible now and in the future. Barthel (2014) highlighted that the value of regional groundwater assessments goes well beyond just quantifying the resource so that it can be better managed. The tools and techniques required to evaluate these unique regional systems advance the science of hydrogeology and provide enhanced methods that can benefit local-scale groundwater investigations. In addition, a significant, yet under-utilized benefit is the digital spatial and temporal data sets routinely generated as part of these studies. Even though there is no legal or regulatory requirement for regional groundwater assessments in the US, there is a logical basis for their implementation. The purpose of this essay is to articulate the rationale for and reaffirm the value of regional groundwater assessments primarily in the US; however, the arguments hold for all nations. The importance of the data sets and the methods and model development that occur as part of these assessments is stressed. These high-value data sets and models should be available in readily accessible formats for use today and in the future. Examples of advances in and accomplishments of two regional groundwater assessments are presented to demonstrate their function, relevance, and value for determining the sustainability of the groundwater resources of the US.

Africa-wide monitoring of small surface water bodies using multisource satellite data: a monitoring system for FEWS NET: chapter 5

USGS Publications Warehouse

Velpuri, Naga Manohar; Senay, Gabriel B.; Rowland, James; Verdin, James P.; Alemu, Henok; Melesse, Assefa M.; Abtew, Wossenu; Setegn, Shimelis G.

2014-01-01

Continental Africa has the highest volume of water stored in wetlands, large lakes, reservoirs, and rivers, yet it suffers from problems such as water availability and access. With climate change intensifying the hydrologic cycle and altering the distribution and frequency of rainfall, the problem of water availability and access will increase further. Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has initiated a large-scale project to monitor small to medium surface water points in Africa. Under this project, multisource satellite data and hydrologic modeling techniques are integrated to monitor several hundreds of small to medium surface water points in Africa. This approach has been already tested to operationally monitor 41 water points in East Africa. The validation of modeled scaled depths with field-installed gauge data demonstrated the ability of the model to capture both the spatial patterns and seasonal variations. Modeled scaled estimates captured up to 60 % of the observed gauge variability with a mean root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 22 %. The data on relative water level, precipitation, and evapotranspiration (ETo) for water points in East and West Africa were modeled since 1998 and current information is being made available in near-real time. This chapter presents the approach, results from the East African study, and the first phase of expansion activities in the West Africa region. The water point monitoring network will be further expanded to cover much of sub-Saharan Africa. The goal of this study is to provide timely information on the water availability that would support already established FEWS NET activities in Africa. This chapter also presents the potential improvements in modeling approach to be implemented during future expansion in Africa.

Public water supplies in Gloucester County, New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hardt, William F.

1963-01-01

Gloucester County is in the southwestern part of New Jersey, below Camden, and is a part of the Lower Delaware River Valley. This area is attracting new industry and has shown a population increase of about 47 percent from 1950 to 1960, mostly urban. With the economic growth of the county, the availability and quality of water become increasingly important.The county is in the Coastal Plain of New Jersey. It is underlain by unconsolidated sands and clays of Quaternary, Tertiary, and Cretaceous age. The Raritan and Magothy Formations constitute the most important aquifers and yield more than 95 percent of the water pumped by the public water systems in the county. These formations are capable of yielding 1,400 gpm (gallons per minute) or more to large diameter wells. High yielding wells generally can be drilled anywhere in the county, although the formations are deeper toward the Atlantic Ocean. The Cohansey Sand, second most important aquifer, yields up to 800 gpm or more from large diameter wells. This aquifer is present only in the sparsely populated southeastern half of the county. The Wenonah Formation and Mount Laurel Sand are capable of yielding 100 to 200 gpm in certain areas.The overall chemical quality of the naturally occurring ground water is good. The water generally meets the U.S. Public Health Service's (1962) suggested limit for dissolved solids; however, in some areas, the water carries objectionable amounts of iron and nitrate in solution and has a low pH. Contamination of ground water by salt-water encroachment or by pollution from industrial activity or organic waste in densely populated areas should be prevented. The quality rather than the quantity of water may be the important factor in future ground-water developments.The 21 public water systems in Gloucester County pumped about 1.3 billion gallons of water during 1948 and some 2.7 billion gallons during 1959. This is slightly more than a hundred percent increase in pumpage in 12 year s. The average per capita public water supply consumption in 1959 was approximately 75 gallons per day.This report includes a summary of the history of the present installations, groundwater conditions, quality and availability of water, and potential future yield for the 2 public water systems in Gloucester County.

Urban growth and water access in sub-Saharan Africa: Progress, challenges, and emerging research directions.

PubMed

Dos Santos, S; Adams, E A; Neville, G; Wada, Y; de Sherbinin, A; Mullin Bernhardt, E; Adamo, S B

2017-12-31

For the next decade, the global water crisis remains the risk of highest concern, and ranks ahead of climate change, extreme weather events, food crises and social instability. Across the globe, nearly one in ten people is without access to an improved drinking water source. Least Developed Countries (LDCs) especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the most affected, having disproportionately more of the global population without access to clean water than other major regions. Population growth, changing lifestyles, increasing pollution and accelerating urbanization will continue to widen the gap between the demand for water and available supply especially in urban areas, and disproportionately affect informal settlements, where the majority of SSA's urban population resides. Distribution and allocation of water will be affected by climate-induced water stresses, poor institutions, ineffective governance, and weak political will to address scarcity and mediate uncertainties in future supply. While attempts have been made by many scientists to examine different dimensions of water scarcity and urban population dynamics, there are few comprehensive reviews, especially focused on the particular situation in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper contributes to interdisciplinary understanding of urban water supply by distilling and integrating relevant empirical knowledge on urban dynamics and water issues in SSA, focusing on progress made and associated challenges. It then points out future research directions including the need to understand how alternatives to centralized water policies may help deliver sustainable water supply to cities and informal settlements in the region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Remote sensing of plant-water relations: An overview and future perspectives.

PubMed

Damm, A; Paul-Limoges, E; Haghighi, E; Simmer, C; Morsdorf, F; Schneider, F D; van der Tol, C; Migliavacca, M; Rascher, U

2018-04-25

Vegetation is a highly dynamic component of the Earth surface and substantially alters the water cycle. Particularly the process of oxygenic plant photosynthesis determines vegetation connecting the water and carbon cycle and causing various interactions and feedbacks across Earth spheres. While vegetation impacts the water cycle, it reacts to changing water availability via functional, biochemical and structural responses. Unravelling the resulting complex feedbacks and interactions between the plant-water system and environmental change is essential for any modelling approaches and predictions, but still insufficiently understood due to currently missing observations. We hypothesize that an appropriate cross-scale monitoring of plant-water relations can be achieved by combined observational and modelling approaches. This paper reviews suitable remote sensing approaches to assess plant-water relations ranging from pure observational to combined observational-modelling approaches. We use a combined energy balance and radiative transfer model to assess the explanatory power of pure observational approaches focussing on plant parameters to estimate plant-water relations, followed by an outline for a more effective use of remote sensing by their integration into soil-plant-atmosphere continuum (SPAC) models. We apply a mechanistic model simulating water movement in the SPAC to reveal insight into the complexity of relations between soil, plant and atmospheric parameters, and thus plant-water relations. We conclude that future research should focus on strategies combining observations and mechanistic modelling to advance our knowledge on the interplay between the plant-water system and environmental change, e.g. through plant transpiration. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Weak Evidence of Regeneration Habitat but Strong Evidence of Regeneration Niche for a Leguminous Shrub

PubMed Central

Delerue, Florian; Gonzalez, Maya; Michalet, Richard; Pellerin, Sylvain; Augusto, Laurent

2015-01-01

The identification of an ecological niche specific to the regeneration phase has mobilised significant attention. However, the importance of the regeneration niche concept remains unclear. Our main objective was to study the existence of such a regeneration niche for a leguminous shrub, Ulex europaeus. This study was carried out in southwest France in the context of water and nutrient stresses (mainly phosphorus limitation) due to the presence of nutrient-poor sandy soils. We analysed the regeneration of the species from the germination of seeds and emergence of new seedlings until the seedlings reached young shrub size. Our design included a P fertilisation treatment. We also investigated microsite characteristics (micro-topography and vegetation development) as they can interact with meteorological conditions and determine water availability for seeds and seedlings. We found that P availability controlled seedling growth and the time necessary to reach young shrub size. Water availability appeared to impact the species germination and seedlings survival. We also found that P and water availability depended on the interactions between microsite characteristics and climatic variations. Finally we found evidence that P and water availability are important ecological factors shaping the regeneration niche of the species, but we found weak evidence that any microsite would be appropriate for the regeneration of the species in the long term. Future studies regarding regeneration niches need to distinguish more clearly the ecological factors important for regeneration (the regeneration niche per se) and the physical world where the seedlings appear and develop (the regeneration habitat). PMID:26098877

Interactive effects of nocturnal transpiration and climate change on the root hydraulic redistribution and carbon and water budgets of southern United States pine plantations.

PubMed

Domec, Jean-Christophe; Ogée, Jérôme; Noormets, Asko; Jouangy, Julien; Gavazzi, Michael; Treasure, Emrys; Sun, Ge; McNulty, Steve G; King, John S

2012-06-01

Deep root water uptake and hydraulic redistribution (HR) have been shown to play a major role in forest ecosystems during drought, but little is known about the impact of climate change, fertilization and soil characteristics on HR and its consequences on water and carbon fluxes. Using data from three mid-rotation loblolly pine plantations, and simulations with the process-based model MuSICA, this study indicated that HR can mitigate the effects of soil drying and had important implications for carbon uptake potential and net ecosystem exchange (NEE), especially when N fertilization is considered. At the coastal site (C), characterized by deep organic soil, HR increased dry season tree transpiration (T) by up to 40%, and such an increase affected NEE through major changes in gross primary productivity (GPP). Deep-rooted trees did not necessarily translate into a large volume of HR unless soil texture allowed large water potential gradients to occur, as was the case at the sandy site (S). At the Piedmont site (P) characterized by a shallow clay-loam soil, HR was low but not negligible, representing up to 10% of T. In the absence of HR, it was predicted that at the C, S and P sites, annual GPP would have been diminished by 19, 7 and 9%, respectively. Under future climate conditions HR was predicted to be reduced by up to 25% at the C site, reducing the resilience of trees to precipitation deficits. The effect of HR on T and GPP was predicted to diminish under future conditions by 12 and 6% at the C and P sites, respectively. Under future conditions, T was predicted to stay the same at the P site, but to be marginally reduced at the C site and slightly increased at the S site. Future conditions and N fertilization would decrease T by 25% at the C site, by 15% at the P site and by 8% at the S site. At the C and S sites, GPP was estimated to increase by 18% and by >70% under future conditions, respectively, with little effect of N fertilization. At the P site, future conditions would stimulate GPP by only 12%, but future conditions plus N fertilization would increase GPP by 24%. As a consequence, in all sites, water use efficiency was predicted to improve dramatically with future conditions. Modeling the effect of reduced annual precipitation indicated that limited water availability would decrease all carbon fluxes, including NEE and respiration. Our simulations highlight the interactive effects of nutrients and elevated CO(2), and showed that the effect of N fertilization would be greater under future climate conditions.

Water Quality Assessment of Ayeyarwady River in Myanmar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thatoe Nwe Win, Thanda; Bogaard, Thom; van de Giesen, Nick

2015-04-01

Myanmar's socio-economic activities, urbanisation, industrial operations and agricultural production have increased rapidly in recent years. With the increase of socio-economic development and climate change impacts, there is an increasing threat on quantity and quality of water resources. In Myanmar, some of the drinking water coverage still comes from unimproved sources including rivers. The Ayeyarwady River is the main river in Myanmar draining most of the country's area. The use of chemical fertilizer in the agriculture, the mining activities in the catchment area, wastewater effluents from the industries and communities and other development activities generate pollutants of different nature. Therefore water quality monitoring is of utmost importance. In Myanmar, there are many government organizations linked to water quality management. Each water organization monitors water quality for their own purposes. The monitoring is haphazard, short term and based on individual interest and the available equipment. The monitoring is not properly coordinated and a quality assurance programme is not incorporated in most of the work. As a result, comprehensive data on the water quality of rivers in Myanmar is not available. To provide basic information, action is needed at all management levels. The need for comprehensive and accurate assessments of trends in water quality has been recognized. For such an assessment, reliable monitoring data are essential. The objective of our work is to set-up a multi-objective surface water quality monitoring programme. The need for a scientifically designed network to monitor the Ayeyarwady river water quality is obvious as only limited and scattered data on water quality is available. However, the set-up should also take into account the current socio-economic situation and should be flexible to adjust after first years of monitoring. Additionally, a state-of-the-art baseline river water quality sampling program is required which will take place during the low water season of March, 2015. The water quality information available for the Ayeyarwady as well as the baseline sampling of March 2015 will be presented. Furthermore, the specific scientific ideas but also organisational challenges for the future surface water quality monitoring network of the Ayeyarwady will be discussed.

Mine waters: Acidic to circumneutral

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nordstrom, D. Kirk

2011-01-01

Acid mine waters, often containing toxic concentrations of Fe, Al, Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb, Ni, Co, and Cr, can be produced from the mining of coal and metallic deposits. Values of pH for acid mine waters can range from –3.5 to 5, but even circumneutral (pH ≈ 7) mine waters can have high concentrations of As, Sb, Mo, U, and F. When mine waters are discharged into streams, lakes, and the oceans, serious degradation of water quality and injury to aquatic life can ensue, especially when tailings impoundments break suddenly. The main acid-producing process is the exposure of pyrite to air and water, which promotes oxidative dissolution, a reaction catalyzed by microbes. Current and future mining should plan for the prevention and remediation of these contaminant discharges by the application of hydrogeochemical principles and available technologies, which might include remining and recycling of waste materials.

Impacts of Water Stress on Forest Recovery and Its Interaction with Canopy Height.

PubMed

Xu, Peipei; Zhou, Tao; Yi, Chuixiang; Luo, Hui; Zhao, Xiang; Fang, Wei; Gao, Shan; Liu, Xia

2018-06-13

Global climate change is leading to an increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought events, which can affect the functioning of forest ecosystems. Because human activities such as afforestation and forest attributes such as canopy height may exhibit considerable spatial differences, such differences may alter the recovery paths of drought-impacted forests. To accurately assess how climate affects forest recovery, a quantitative evaluation on the effects of forest attributes and their possible interaction with the intensity of water stress is required. Here, forest recovery following extreme drought events was analyzed for Yunnan Province, southwest China. The variation in the recovery of forests with different water availability and canopy heights was quantitatively assessed at the regional scale by using canopy height data based on light detection and ranging (LiDAR) measurements, enhanced vegetation index data, and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) data. Our results indicated that forest recovery was affected by water availability and canopy height. Based on the enhanced vegetation index measures, shorter trees were more likely to recover than taller ones after drought. Further analyses demonstrated that the effect of canopy height on recovery rates after drought also depends on water availability—the effect of canopy height on recovery diminished as water availability increased after drought. Additional analyses revealed that when the water availability exceeded a threshold (SPEI > 0.85), no significant difference in the recovery was found between short and tall trees ( p > 0.05). In the context of global climate change, future climate scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 showed more frequent water stress in Yunnan by the end of the 21st century. In summary, our results indicated that canopy height casts an important influence on forest recovery and tall trees have greater vulnerability and risk to dieback and mortality from drought. These results may have broad implications for policies and practices of forest management.

Food security in the face of climate change, population growth, and resource constraints: implications for Bangladesh.

PubMed

Faisal, Islam M; Parveen, Saila

2004-10-01

Ensuring food security has been one of the major national priorities of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. Now, this national priority is facing new challenges from the possible impacts of climate change in addition to the already existing threats from rapid population growth, declining availability of cultivable land, and inadequate access to water in the dry season. In this backdrop, this paper has examined the nature and magnitude of these threats for the benchmark years of 2030 and 2050. It has been shown that the overall impact of climate change on the production of food grains in Bangladesh would probably be small in 2030. This is due to the strong positive impact of CO2 fertilization that would compensate for the negative impacts of higher temperature and sea level rise. In 2050, the negative impacts of climate change might become noticeable: production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32%, respectively. However, rice would be less affected by climate change compared to wheat, which is more sensitive to a change in temperature. Based on the population projections and analysis of future agronomic innovations, this study further shows that the availability of cultivable land alone would not be a constraint for achieving food self-sufficiency, provided that the productivity of rice and wheat grows at a rate of 10% or more per decade. However, the situation would be more critical in terms of water availability. If the dry season water availability does not decline from the 1990 level of about 100 Bm3, there would be just enough water in 2030 for meeting both the agricultural and nonagricultural needs. In 2050, the demand for irrigation water to maintain food self-sufficiency would be about 40% to 50% of the dry season water availability. Meeting such a high agricultural water demand might cause significant negative impacts on the domestic and commercial water supply, fisheries, ecosystems, navigation, and salinity management.

Smallholder Led Irrigation Development in the Humid Ethiopian highlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilahun, S. A.; Schmitter, P.; Alemie, T. C.; Yilak, D. L.; Yimer, A.; Mamo, A.; Langan, S.; Baronn, J.; Steenhuis, T. S.

2017-12-01

More than 70% of the population of in sub-Saharan Africa are living in rural areas that depend on the rainfed agriculture for their livelihood on the rainfed agriculture. With the rapidly increasing population, competition for land and water is growing is intensifying. This, together with future landscape and climate change, the rainfed agriculture is unlikely to meet the future food demands. Many donors see irrigation a rational way to solve the future food crises. In Ethiopia, less than 10% of the irrigatable area has been developed. The main limitation of increasing the irrigatable areas is a severe lack of surface water during an extended dry phase of almost seven months. Flow in most rivers currently have dried up before the rain phase begins middle of the dry periods. In response, the Ethiopian government is installing large reservoirs at great cost to store water from the wet monsoon phase. At the same time, small scale household have started using irrigation using wells on sloping lands that have sprung up with minimal governmental intervention. It could be one of the strategies to increase the irrigated acreage without large investments. Donors and governmental planners are eager to follow the farmer's initiatives and intensify irrigation on these hillside areas. However, it is not yet known to the extent that it is sustainable. For this reason, shallow ground water levels and river discharge were measured over a three-year period in the Robit Bata and Dangishta watersheds in Northern Ethiopian highlands for assessing recharge and use of shallow groundwater irrigation during dry period. The theoretical results show that the ground water availability depends on the slope of the land and the depth of the soil. In sloping Robit Bata watershed the groundwater runs out under gravity to the stream channel in 3-4 months after the rainfall stops. The only wells that remain productive are those associated with fractures in the bedrock. For the less sloping Dangishta watersheds ground water remains available over longer periods. This study shows that a combination of farmers initiatives, experimental observation and theoretical analysis may lead to environmentally sound and socially sustainable irrigation development. It provides policy makers knowledge vital for effective implementation of shallow ground water resources.

Climate change impact on water resources - Example of an anthropized basin (Llobregat, Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Versini, P.-A.; Pouget, L.; Mc Ennis, S.; Guiu Carrio, R.; Sempere-Torres, D.; Escaler, I.

2012-04-01

The impact of climate change is one of the central topics of study by water agencies and companies. Indeed, the forecasted increase of atmospheric temperature may change the amount, frequency and intensity of precipitation and affect the hydrological cycle: runoff, infiltration, aquifer recharge, etc… Moreover, global change combining climate change but also land use and water demand changes, may cause very important impacts on water availability and quality. Global change scenarios in Spain describe a general trend towards increased temperature and water demand, and reduced precipitation as a result of its geographical situation and socio-economic characteristics. The European project WATER CHANGE (included in the LIFE + Environment Policy and Governance program) aims to develop a modeling system to assess the Global Change impacts, and their associated uncertainties, on water availability for water supply and water use. Its objective is to help river basin agencies and water companies in their long term planning and in the definition of adaptation measures. This work presents the results obtained by applying the modelling system to the Llobregat river basin (Spain). This is an anthropized catchment of about 5000 km2, where water resources are used for different purposes, such as drinking water production, agriculture irrigation, industry and hydroelectric energy production. Based on future global change scenarios, the water resources system has been assessed in terms of water deficit and supply. A cost-benefit analysis has also been conducted in order to evaluate every realistic measure that could optimize and improve the system.

Coupling biophysical processes and water rights to simulate spatially distributed water use in an intensively managed hydrologic system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Bangshuai; Benner, Shawn G.; Bolte, John P.; Vache, Kellie B.; Flores, Alejandro N.

2017-07-01

Humans have significantly altered the redistribution of water in intensively managed hydrologic systems, shifting the spatiotemporal patterns of surface water. Evaluating water availability requires integration of hydrologic processes and associated human influences. In this study, we summarize the development and evaluation of an extensible hydrologic model that explicitly integrates water rights to spatially distribute irrigation waters in a semi-arid agricultural region in the western US, using the Envision integrated modeling platform. The model captures both human and biophysical systems, particularly the diversion of water from the Boise River, which is the main water source that supports irrigated agriculture in this region. In agricultural areas, water demand is estimated as a function of crop type and local environmental conditions. Surface water to meet crop demand is diverted from the stream reaches, constrained by the amount of water available in the stream, the water-rights-appropriated amount, and the priority dates associated with particular places of use. Results, measured by flow rates at gaged stream and canal locations within the study area, suggest that the impacts of irrigation activities on the magnitude and timing of flows through this intensively managed system are well captured. The multi-year averaged diverted water from the Boise River matches observations well, reflecting the appropriation of water according to the water rights database. Because of the spatially explicit implementation of surface water diversion, the model can help diagnose places and times where water resources are likely insufficient to meet agricultural water demands, and inform future water management decisions.

Resource Evaluation and Site Selection for Microalgae Production in India

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Milbrandt, A.; Jarvis, E.

2010-09-01

The study evaluates climate conditions, availability of CO2 and other nutrients, water resources, and land characteristics to identify areas in India suitable for algae production. The purpose is to provide an understanding of the resource potential in India for algae biofuels production and to assist policymakers, investors, and industry developers in their future strategic decisions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ye, Qing; Yang, Xiaoguang; Dai, Shuwei

Here, we discuss that rice is one of the main crops grown in southern China. Global climate change has significantly altered the local water availability and temperature regime for rice production. In this study, we explored the influence of climate change on suitable rice cropping areas, rice cropping systems and crop water requirements (CWRs) during the growing season for historical (from 1951 to 2010) and future (from 2011 to 2100) time periods. The results indicated that the land areas suitable for rice cropping systems shifted northward and westward from 1951 to 2100 but with different amplitudes.

Quantifying the Contribution of Regional Aquifers to Stream Flow in the Upper Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masbruch, M.; Dickinson, J.

2017-12-01

The growing population of the arid and semiarid southwestern U.S. relies on over-allocated surface water resources and poorly quantified groundwater resources. In the Upper Colorado River Basin, recent studies have found that about 50 percent of the surface water at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gages is derived from groundwater contributions as base flow. Prior USGS and other studies for the Colorado Plateau region have mainly examined groundwater and surface water as separate systems, and there has yet to be regional synthesis of groundwater availability in aquifers that contribute to surface water. A more physically based representation of groundwater flow could improve simulations of surface-water capture by groundwater pumping, and changes of groundwater discharge to surface water caused by possible shifts in the distribution, magnitude, and timing of recharge in the future. We seek to improve conceptual and numerical models of groundwater and surface-water interactions in the Colorado Plateau region as part of a USGS regional groundwater availability assessment. Numerical modeling is used to simulate and quantify the base flow from groundwater to the Colorado River and its major tributaries. Groundwater/surface-water interactions will be simulated using the USGS code GSFLOW, which couples the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to the groundwater flow model MODFLOW. Initial results suggest that interactions between groundwater and surface water are important for projecting long-term changes in surface water budgets.

Impact of Unconventional Energy Development using Hydraulic Fracturing on Louisiana Water Resources Availability.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unruh, H. G., Sr.; Habib, E. H.; Borrok, D. M.

2017-12-01

Unconventional oil and gas extraction around United States has been deployed significantly in the recent years. The current study focuses on the impact of Hydraulic fracturing (HF) on the sustainability of water resources in Louisiana. This impact is measured by quantifying the stress for current and future scenarios of HF water use in the two-main shale plays in Louisiana, the Haynesville and Tuscaloosa. The assessment is conducted at the HUC-12 fine catchment spatial scale. Initially, sectored stress metrics were calculated for surface and groundwater, respectively, without including HF water use. Demand sectors involved in this first stress estimation are power generation, public supply, industrial, etc. Once both stress metrics were estimated with the reported water sources and uses in Louisiana corresponding to the 2010 year, several scenarios for both sources were evaluated. In the first scenario, a peak year (2011) of HF water use was added as a water demand new category into the stress calculation matrices. The results indicate that a significant variability in the calculated stress metric with and without HF is reflected only for the groundwater sector. On the other hand, surface water sector doesn't seem to be affected for the HF water use. However, this apparent abundant surface water in the catchment, the location of the wells is not always adjacent to the body of water, and then trucking or piping of water may be required. For this reason, availability of groundwater in situ is a relevant factor in terms of production cost. Additional tested scenarios consist of increasing the number of wells in both shale play locations. Existing wells scenario calculates the stress including the water use of the total number of wells that currently exist in both shale plays in a short period (one year). The other additional tested scenario consists of increase of 100% of the required number of wells to extract the expected total shale play capacity. Results of the additional scenarios follow the same pattern as the first scenario. This analysis can be useful for water management authorities to consider recycled flow-back as an alternative resource for HF water use. Additionally, a cost analysis can be developed in a future study analyzing the economic feasibility of treating and reusing the wastewater as a source in the HF process.

What did the Romans ever do for us? Putting humans in global land models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bierkens, M. F.; Wada, Y.; Dermody, B.; Van Beek, L. P.

2016-12-01

During the late 1980s and early 1990s, awareness of the shortage of global water resources lead to the first detailed global water resources assessments using regional statistics of water use and observations of meteorological and hydrological variables. Shortly thereafter, the first macroscale hydrological models (MHM) appeared. In these models, blue water (i.e., surface water and renewable groundwater) availability was calculated by accumulating runoff over a stream network and comparing it with population densities or with estimated water demand for agriculture, industry and households. In this talk we review the evolution of human impact modelling in global land models with a focus on global water resources, touching upon developments of the last 15 years: i.e. calculating human water scarcity; estimating groundwater depletion; adding dams and reservoirs; fully integrating water use (abstraction, application, consumption, return flow) in the hydrology; simulating the effects of land use change. We identify four major challenges that hamper the further development of integrated water resources modelling and thus prohibit realistic projections of the future terrestrial water cycle in the Anthropocene. These are: 1) including the ability to model infrastructural changes and measures; 2) projecting future water demand and water use and associated measures; 3) including virtual water trade; 4) including land use change and landscape change. While all these challenges will likely benefit from hydro-economics and the newly developing field of socio-hydrology, we also show that especially for challenges 3 and 4 lessons can be drawn from the (pre)historic past. To make this point we provide two case studies: one modelling the virtual water trade in the Roman Empire and one modelling human-landscape interaction in prehistoric Calabria (Italy).

Trade in water and commodities as adaptations to global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lammers, R. B.; Hertel, T. W.; Prousevitch, A.; Baldos, U. L. C.; Frolking, S. E.; Liu, J.; Grogan, D. S.

2015-12-01

The human capacity for altering the water cycle has been well documented and given the expected change due to population, income growth, biofuels, climate, and associated land use change, there remains great uncertainty in both the degree of increased pressure on land and water resources and in our ability to adapt to these changes. Alleviating regional shortages in water supply can be carried out in a spatial hierarchy through i) direct trade of water between all regions, ii) development of infrastructure to improve water availability within regions (e.g. impounding rivers), iii) via inter-basin hydrological transfer between neighboring regions and, iv) via virtual water trade. These adaptation strategies can be managed via market trade in water and commodities to identify those strategies most likely to be adopted. This work combines the physically-based University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model (WBM) with the macro-scale Purdue University Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices Land use and the Environment (SIMPLE) to explore the interaction of supply and demand for fresh water globally. In this work we use a newly developed grid cell-based version of SIMPLE to achieve a more direct connection between the two modeling paradigms of physically-based models with optimization-driven approaches characteristic of economic models. We explore questions related to the global and regional impact of water scarcity and water surplus on the ability of regions to adapt to future change. Allowing for a variety of adaptation strategies such as direct trade of water and expanding the built water infrastructure, as well as indirect trade in commodities, will reduce overall global water stress and, in some regions, significantly reduce their vulnerability to these future changes.

Climate Change Assessment of Precipitation in Tandula Reservoir System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaiswal, Rahul Kumar; Tiwari, H. L.; Lohani, A. K.

2018-02-01

The precipitation is the principle input of hydrological cycle affect availability of water in spatial and temporal scale of basin due to widely accepted climate change. The present study deals with the statistical downscaling using Statistical Down Scaling Model for rainfall of five rain gauge stations (Ambagarh, Bhanpura, Balod, Chamra and Gondli) in Tandula, Kharkhara and Gondli reservoirs of Chhattisgarh state of India to forecast future rainfall in three different periods under SRES A1B and A2 climatic forcing conditions. In the analysis, twenty-six climatic variables obtained from National Centers for Environmental Prediction were used and statistically tested for selection of best-fit predictors. The conditional process based statistical correlation was used to evolve multiple linear relations in calibration for period of 1981-1995 was tested with independent data of 1996-2003 for validation. The developed relations were further used to predict future rainfall scenarios for three different periods 2020-2035 (FP-1), 2046-2064 (FP-2) and 2081-2100 (FP-3) and compared with monthly rainfalls during base period (1981-2003) for individual station and all three reservoir catchments. From the analysis, it has been found that most of the rain gauge stations and all three reservoir catchments may receive significant less rainfall in future. The Thiessen polygon based annual and seasonal rainfall for different catchments confirmed a reduction of seasonal rainfall from 5.1 to 14.1% in Tandula reservoir, 11-19.2% in Kharkhara reservoir and 15.1-23.8% in Gondli reservoir. The Gondli reservoir may be affected the most in term of water availability in future prediction periods.

Coupling climate and hydrological models to evaluate the impact of climate change on run of the river hydropower schemes from UK study sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasten-Zapata, Ernesto; Jones, Julie; Moggridge, Helen

2015-04-01

As climate change is expected to generate variations on the Earth's precipitation and temperature, the water cycle will also experience changes. Consequently, water users will have to be prepared for possible changes in future water availability. The main objective of this research is to evaluate the impacts of climate change on river regimes and the implications to the operation and feasibility of run of the river hydropower schemes by analyzing four UK study sites. Run of the river schemes are selected for analysis due to their higher dependence to the available river flow volumes when compared to storage hydropower schemes that can rely on previously accumulated water volumes (linked to poster in session HS5.3). Global Climate Models (GCMs) represent the main tool to assess future climate change. In this research, Regional Climate Models (RCMs), which dynamically downscale GCM outputs providing higher resolutions, are used as starting point to evaluate climate change within the study catchments. RCM daily temperature and precipitation will be downscaled to an appropriate scale for impact studies and bias corrected using different statistical methods: linear scaling, local intensity scaling, power transformation, variance scaling and delta change correction. The downscaled variables will then be coupled to hydrological models that have been previously calibrated and validated against observed daily river flow data. The coupled hydrological and climate models will then be used to simulate historic river flows that are compared to daily observed values in order to evaluate the model accuracy. As this research will employ several different RCMs (from the EURO-CORDEX simulations), downscaling and bias correction methodologies, greenhouse emission scenarios and hydrological models, the uncertainty of each element will be estimated. According to their uncertainty magnitude, a prediction of the best downscaling approach (or approaches) is expected to be obtained. The current progress of the project will be presented along with the steps to be followed in the future.

Hydrogeology and numerical simulation of the unconsolidated glacial aquifer in the Pootatuck River Basin, Newtown, Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carlson, Carl S.; Mondazzi, Remo A.; Bjerklie, David M.; Brown, Craig J.

2010-01-01

A study of the groundwater and stream-aquifer interaction in the Pootatuck River Basin, Newtown, Connecticut, was conducted to analyze the effect of production wells on the groundwater levels and streamflow in the Pootatuck River as part of a cooperative program between the U.S. Geological Survey and Newtown, Connecticut. This study will help address concerns about the increasing competition for water for human uses and protection of aquatic habitat. The groundwater-flow model developed in the study was designed for use as a tool to assist planners in assessing the effects of potential future development, which will change the amount and distribution of recharge available to the groundwater system. Several different techniques were used to investigate the interconnection between the stream and the aquifer. Temperature, groundwater levels, stream stage, and stable-isotope data collected during aquifer tests at the principal production wells in the Pootatuck River Basin, as well as groundwater-flow simulations of the system, indicate that more than half of the water pumped from the wells comes from the Pootatuck River. This finding potentially has a large effect on approaches for protecting the water quality of the pumped water. Increases in the amount of impervious surface from future development will reduce and redistribute recharge to the groundwater system. The simulation of future development scenarios showed a decrease in the simulated base flow in the main stem of the Pootatuck River and in all of the 26 simulated subbasins, with some of the subbasins showing a decrease of more than 20 percent when new development had 85 percent impervious area. The groundwater-flow model and particle tracking were used to determine areas that contribute recharge to the five production wells available for use in the Pootatuck River Basin. These areas included narrow portions of the aquifer that extended beyond the immediate upgradient areas, probably because of deeper groundwater-flow paths.

Vulnerability of U.S. Agriculture and Energy Sectors to Changes in Climate and Socioeconomics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hejazi, M. I.; Voisin, N.; Liu, L.; Bramer, L.; Fortin, D.; Huang, M.; Hathaway, J.; Kyle, P.; Leung, L. R.; Li, H. Y.; Liu, Y.; Patel, P.; Pulsipher, T.; Rice, J.; Tesfa, T. K.; Vernon, C. R.; Zhou, Y.

2014-12-01

A prominent integrated assessment model (IAM), the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), has been coupled with the Community Land Model (CLM) of the Community Earth system model (CESM) to assess the vulnerability of the US agriculture and energy sectors to future water shortages under changing climate and socioeconomics. This study utilizes the regionalized version of GCAM for the U.S. with 50-state. GCAM-USA includes a detailed representation of water demands and tracks them at multiple spatial scales and annual scale. A spatial and temporal disaggregation approach is developed to project the annual regional water demand simulations into a daily time step and 1/8o spatial resolution for input to CLM, which has been coupled to a river routing model and generic water management model applicable globally at 1/2o resolution and regionally at 1/8o resolution. The coupled modeling framework demonstrated reasonable ability to simulate the historical flow regulation and water supply over the continental U.S. The coupled modeling framework has been used to investigate: 1) Which water use sector (agriculture or energy) and subbasins in the conterminous U.S. will experience water deficits in future decades; 2) What are the drivers for the deficit (i.e., water availability, water demands, or both); 3) Will climate mitigation policies alleviate or exacerbate the situation; and lastly 4) How will the frequency , severity, and spatial extent of water deficits (hot spots) evolve under a non-mitigation scenario (RCP8.5) in which conventional fossil-fueled technologies prevail versus a mitigation scenario (RCP4.5) in which the carbon price causes a shift toward renewables and expansion of bioenergy productions. Results show that irrigation will face greater water deficit overall except in the northeastern U.S. Water deficit is greatest in the western U.S. except the Pacific Northwest. Human footprints on the regulated flows are most pronounced over the Rio Grande, Colorado, Great Lake, Great, and Missouri basins. Overall, total water deficit in term of both total volume and land area are projected to increase in the future under both RCPs.

Evaluating Inequality or Injustice in Water Use for Food

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Odorico, P.; Carr, J. A.; Seekell, D. A.

2014-12-01

Water availability and population density distributions are uneven and therefore inequality exists in human access to freshwater resources; but is this inequality unjust or only regrettable? To examine this question we formulated and evaluated elementary principles of water ethics relative to human rights for water and explored the need for global trade to improve societal access to water by transferring plant and animal commodities and the "virtual water" embedded in them. We defined human welfare benchmarks and evaluated country specific patterns of water use for food with, and without trade, over a 25-year period in order to elucidate the influence of trade and inequality on equability of water use. We found that trade improves mean water use and wellbeing, when related to human welfare benchmarks, suggesting that inequality is regrettable but not necessarily unjust. However, trade has not significantly contributed to redressing inequality. Hence, directed trade decisions can improve future conditions of water and food scarcity through reduced inequality.

Mega drought in the Colorado River Basin, water supply, and adaptive scenario planning for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area; simulations using WaterSim 5.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampson, D. A.

2015-12-01

The Decision Center for a Desert City (DCDC), a boundary organization, bridges science and policy (to foster knowledge-based decision making); we study how decisions are made in the face of uncertainty. Our water policy and management model for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area (hereafter "Phoenix"), termed WaterSim, represents one such bridging mechanism. We evaluated the effect of varying the length of drought on water availability for Phoenix. We examined droughts (starting in 2000) lasting 15, 25, and 50 years. We picked a 60-year window of runoff estimates from the paleo reconstruction data for the Colorado River (CO) (1121 through 1180 A.D.), and the two local rivers (1391 through 1450 A.D.), and assumed that the proportional difference in median flow between these periods and the long-term record represented an estimate of potential drought reductions on river flows. This resulted in a 12%, and 19% reduction in flows for the CO River and the Salt-Verde (SV) Rivers, respectively. WaterSim uses 30-year trace periods from the historical flow records to simulate river flow for future projections. We used each 30-year trace from the historical record (1906 to present, CO River; 1945 to present SV Rivers) , and default settings, to simulate 60 year projections of Lake Mead elevation and the accompanying Colorado River water shortages to Phoenix. Overall, elevations for Lake Mead fell below the 1st shortage sharing tier (1075 ft) in 83% of the simulations; 74% of the simulations fell below the 2nd tier (1050 ft), and 64% fell below the 3rd (1025 ft). Length of drought, however, determined the shortage tiers met. Median elevations for droughts ending in 2015, 2025, and 2050 were 1036, 1019, and 967 feet msl, respectively. We present the plausible water futures with adaptive anticipatory scenario planning for the projected reductions in surface water availability to demonstrate decision points for water conservation measures to effectively manage shortage conditions.

Leaf Area Index Drives Soil Water Availability and Extreme Drought-Related Mortality under Elevated CO2 in a Temperate Grassland Model System

PubMed Central

Manea, Anthony; Leishman, Michelle R.

2014-01-01

The magnitude and frequency of climatic extremes, such as drought, are predicted to increase under future climate change conditions. However, little is known about how other factors such as CO2 concentration will modify plant community responses to these extreme climatic events, even though such modifications are highly likely. We asked whether the response of grasslands to repeat extreme drought events is modified by elevated CO2, and if so, what are the underlying mechanisms? We grew grassland mesocosms consisting of 10 co-occurring grass species common to the Cumberland Plain Woodland of western Sydney under ambient and elevated CO2 and subjected them to repeated extreme drought treatments. The 10 species included a mix of C3, C4, native and exotic species. We hypothesized that a reduction in the stomatal conductance of the grasses under elevated CO2 would be offset by increases in the leaf area index thus the retention of soil water and the consequent vulnerability of the grasses to extreme drought would not differ between the CO2 treatments. Our results did not support this hypothesis: soil water content was significantly lower in the mesocosms grown under elevated CO2 and extreme drought-related mortality of the grasses was greater. The C4 and native grasses had significantly higher leaf area index under elevated CO2 levels. This offset the reduction in the stomatal conductance of the exotic grasses as well as increased rainfall interception, resulting in reduced soil water content in the elevated CO2 mesocosms. Our results suggest that projected increases in net primary productivity globally of grasslands in a high CO2 world may be limited by reduced soil water availability in the future. PMID:24632832

Leaf area index drives soil water availability and extreme drought-related mortality under elevated CO2 in a temperate grassland model system.

PubMed

Manea, Anthony; Leishman, Michelle R

2014-01-01

The magnitude and frequency of climatic extremes, such as drought, are predicted to increase under future climate change conditions. However, little is known about how other factors such as CO2 concentration will modify plant community responses to these extreme climatic events, even though such modifications are highly likely. We asked whether the response of grasslands to repeat extreme drought events is modified by elevated CO2, and if so, what are the underlying mechanisms? We grew grassland mesocosms consisting of 10 co-occurring grass species common to the Cumberland Plain Woodland of western Sydney under ambient and elevated CO2 and subjected them to repeated extreme drought treatments. The 10 species included a mix of C3, C4, native and exotic species. We hypothesized that a reduction in the stomatal conductance of the grasses under elevated CO2 would be offset by increases in the leaf area index thus the retention of soil water and the consequent vulnerability of the grasses to extreme drought would not differ between the CO2 treatments. Our results did not support this hypothesis: soil water content was significantly lower in the mesocosms grown under elevated CO2 and extreme drought-related mortality of the grasses was greater. The C4 and native grasses had significantly higher leaf area index under elevated CO2 levels. This offset the reduction in the stomatal conductance of the exotic grasses as well as increased rainfall interception, resulting in reduced soil water content in the elevated CO2 mesocosms. Our results suggest that projected increases in net primary productivity globally of grasslands in a high CO2 world may be limited by reduced soil water availability in the future.

Chile confronts its environmental health future after 25 years of accelerated growth

PubMed Central

Pino, Paulina; Iglesias, Verónica; Garreaud, René; Cortés, Sandra; Canals, Mauricio; Folch, Walter; Burgos, Soledad; Levy, Karen; Naeher, Luke P.; Steenland, Kyle

2015-01-01

Background Chile has recently been reclassified by the World Bank from an upper middle income country to a higher income country. There has been great progress in the last 20–30 years in relation to air and water pollution in Chile. Yet after 25 years of unrestrained growth there remain clear challenges posed by air and water, as well as climate change. Methods: In late 2013 a three-day workshop on environmental health was held in Santiago, bringing together researchers and government policy makers. As a follow-up to that workshop, here we review the progress made in environmental health in the past 20–30 years, and discuss the challenges of the future. We focus on air and water pollution, and climate change, which we believe are among the most important areas of environmental health in Chile. Results Air pollution in some cities remains among the highest in the continent. Potable water is generally available, but weak state supervision has led to serious outbreaks of infectious disease and ongoing issues with arsenic exposure in some regions. Climate change modeling in Chile is quite sophisticated, and a number of the impacts of climate change can be reasonably predicted in terms of which areas of the country are most likely to be affected by increased temperature and decreased availability of water, as well as expansion of vector territory. Some health effects, including change vector-borne diseases and excess heat mortality, can be predicted. However, there has yet to be an integration of such research with government planning. Conclusion While great progress has been made, currently there are a number of problems. We suspect that the Chilean experience in environmental health may be of some use for other Latin American countries with rapid economic development. PMID:26615070

Impact of climate change on irrigation management for olive orchards at southern Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorite, Ignacio; Gabaldón-Leal, Clara; Santos, Cristina; Belaj, Angjelina; de la Rosa, Raul; Leon, Lorenzo; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

2017-04-01

The irrigation management for olive orchards under future weather conditions requires the development of advanced tools for considering specific physiological and phenological components affected by the foreseen changes in climate and atmospheric [CO2]. In this study a new simulation model named AdaptaOlive has been considered to develop controlled deficit irrigation and full irrigation scheduling for the traditional olive orchards located in Andalusia region (southern Spain) under the projected climate generated by an ensemble of 11 climate models from the ENSEMBLES European project corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. Irrigation requirements, irrigation water productivity (IWP) and net margin (NM) were evaluated for three periods (baseline, near future and far future) and three irrigation strategies (rainfed, RF, controlled deficit irrigation, CDI, and full irrigation, FI). For irrigation requirements, a very limited average increase for far future compared with baseline period was found (2.6 and 1.3%, for CDI and FI, respectively). Equally, when IWP was analyzed, significant increases were identified for both irrigation strategies (77.4 and 72.2%, for CDI and FI, respectively) due to the high simulated increase in yield. Finally, when net margin was analyzed, the irrigation water cost had a key significance. For low water costs FI provided higher net margin values than for CDI. However, for high water costs (expected in the future due to the foreseen reduction in rainfall and the increase of the competence for the available water resources), net margin is reduced significantly, generating a very elevated number of years with negative net margin. All the described results are affected by a high level of uncertainty as the projections from the ensemble of 11 climate models show large spread. Thus, for a representative location within Andalusia region as Baeza, a reduction of irrigation requirements under full irrigation strategy was found for the ensemble mean (equal to 0.5%). However, when the individual projections from the 11 climate models were considered the variation of irrigation requirements for far future compared with baseline period ranged from increases of 8.5% to reductions of 10.7%. This fact demonstrates the necessity to consider ensembles of climate models for identifying averaged impacts and the range of variability of these impacts, quantifying the uncertainty in the estimates related with water management in the future. The study concludes that the promotion of controlled deficit irrigation strategies is an excellent adaptation strategy. However, this strategy must be supported with the enhance of farmers' training by the implementation of local or regional irrigation advisory services.

Quantifying effects of humans and climate on groundwater resources of Hawaii through sharp-interface modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rotzoll, K.; Izuka, S. K.; Nishikawa, T.; Fienen, M. N.; El-Kadi, A. I.

2016-12-01

Some of the volcanic-rock aquifers of the islands of Hawaii are substantially developed, leading to concerns related to the effects of groundwater withdrawals on saltwater intrusion and stream base-flow reduction. A numerical modeling analysis using recent available information (e.g., recharge, withdrawals, hydrogeologic framework, and conceptual models of groundwater flow) advances current understanding of groundwater flow and provides insight into the effects of human activity and climate change on Hawaii's water resources. Three island-wide groundwater-flow models (Kauai, Oahu, and Maui) were constructed using MODFLOW 2005 coupled with the Seawater-Intrusion Package (SWI2), which simulates the transition between saltwater and freshwater in the aquifer as a sharp interface. This approach allowed coarse vertical discretization (maximum of two layers) without ignoring the freshwater-saltwater system at the regional scale. Model construction (FloPy3), parameter estimation (PEST), and analysis of results were streamlined using Python scripts. Model simulations included pre-development (1870) and recent (average of 2001-10) scenarios for each island. Additionally, scenarios for future withdrawals and climate change were simulated for Oahu. We present our streamlined approach and results showing estimated effects of human activity on the groundwater resource by quantifying decline in water levels, rise of the freshwater-saltwater interface, and reduction in stream base flow. Water-resource managers can use this information to evaluate consequences of groundwater development that can constrain future groundwater availability.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grenzeback, L. R.; Brown, A.; Fischer, M. J.

2013-03-01

Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand, the trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand. After describing federal policy actions that could influence future freight demand, the report then summarizes the capabilities of available analyticalmore » models for forecasting freight demand. This is one in a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for reducing GHGs and petroleum dependence related to transportation.« less

An Emerging Role for Numerical Modelling in Wildfire Behavior Research: Explorations, Explanations, and Hypothesis Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linn, R.; Winterkamp, J.; Canfield, J.; Sauer, J.; Dupuy, J. L.; Finney, M.; Hoffman, C.; Parsons, R.; Pimont, F.; Sieg, C.; Forthofer, J.

2014-12-01

The human capacity for altering the water cycle has been well documented and given the expected change due to population, income growth, biofuels, climate, and associated land use change, there remains great uncertainty in both the degree of increased pressure on land and water resources and in our ability to adapt to these changes. Alleviating regional shortages in water supply can be carried out in a spatial hierarchy through i) direct trade of water between all regions, ii) development of infrastructure to improve water availability within regions (e.g. impounding rivers), iii) via inter-basin hydrological transfer between neighboring regions and, iv) via virtual water trade. These adaptation strategies can be managed via market trade in water and commodities to identify those strategies most likely to be adopted. This work combines the physically-based University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model (WBM) with the macro-scale Purdue University Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices Land use and the Environment (SIMPLE) to explore the interaction of supply and demand for fresh water globally. In this work we use a newly developed grid cell-based version of SIMPLE to achieve a more direct connection between the two modeling paradigms of physically-based models with optimization-driven approaches characteristic of economic models. We explore questions related to the global and regional impact of water scarcity and water surplus on the ability of regions to adapt to future change. Allowing for a variety of adaptation strategies such as direct trade of water and expanding the built water infrastructure, as well as indirect trade in commodities, will reduce overall global water stress and, in some regions, significantly reduce their vulnerability to these future changes.

Modelling the water-agricultural sector in Rosetta, Egypt: exploring the interaction between water and food

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sušnik, Janez; Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia, Lydia; Savic, Dragan; Kapelan, Zoran

2014-05-01

An integrated System Dynamics Model for the Rosetta region, Egypt, assessing local water balance and agricultural yield to 2050, is presented. Fifty-seven simulations are analysed to better understand potential impacts on water and food security resulting from climate and social change and local/regional policy decisions related to the agricultural sector. Water limitation is a national issue: Egypt relies on the Nile for >95% of supply, and the flow of which is regulated by the Aswan High Dam. Egypt's share water of Aswan water is limited to 55 x 19 m3 yr-1. Any reduction in supply to the reservoir or increase in demand (e.g. from an expanding agricultural sector), has the potential to lead to a serious food and water supply situation. Results show current water resource over-exploitation. The remaining suite of 56 simulations, divided into seven scenarios, also mostly show resource overexploitation. Only under significant increases to Nile flow volumes was the trend reversed. Despite this, by threading together multiple local policies to reduce demand and improve/maintain supply, water resource exploitation can be mitigated while allowing for agricultural development. By changing cropping patterns, it is possible to improve yield and revenue, while using up to 21% less water in 2050 when compared with today. The results are useful in highlighting pathways to improving future water resource availability. Many policies should be considered in parallel, introducing redundancy into the policy framework. We do not suggest actual policy measures; this was beyond the scope of the work. This work highlights the utility of systems modelling of complex systems such as the water-food nexus, with the potential to extend the methodology to other studies and scales. In particular, the benefit of being able to easily modify and extend existing models in light of results from initial modelling efforts is cited. Analysis of initial results led to the hypothesis that by producing excess crop as a result of cropping pattern changes, international markets could be exploited, leading to further local improvements to the water balance, food yield and revenue. An extension 'module' was added onto the initial model which aimed to simulate this exploitation of international markets. Despite the promising results, any improvements would probably manifest after a number of years, have to be managed carefully, and would increase reliance on other countries, something that would need to be considered at the national level. It would also be prudent to implement such a policy in parallel with others aimed at mitigating potential future drought scenarios. This work was part of EC FP7 'WASSERMed' (Water Availability and Security in Southern EuRope and the Mediterranean) project analysing current and future climate-induced changes to hydrological budgets and extremes throughout the Mediterranean basin under the frame of threats to national and human security.

The effect of measured and estimated soil hydraulic properties on simulated water regime in the analysis of grapevine adaptability to future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfante, Antonello; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Agrillo, Antonietta; Dragonetti, Giovanna; Mileti, Antonio; Monaco, Eugenia; De Lorenzi, Francesca

2013-04-01

In the last years many research works have been addressed to evaluate the impact of future climate on crop productivity and plant water use at different spatial scales (global, regional, field) by means of simulation models of agricultural crop systems. Most of these approaches use estimated soil hydraulic properties, through pedotransfer functions (PTF). This choice is related to soil data availability: soil data bases lack measured soil hydraulic properties, but generally they contain information that allow the application of PTF . Although the reliability of the predicted future climate scenarios cannot be immediately validated, we address to evaluate the effects of a simplification of the soil system by using PTF. Thus we compare simulations performed with measured soil hydraulic properties versus simulations carried out with estimated properties. The water regimes resulting from the two procedures are evaluated with respect to crop adaptability to future climate. In particular we will examine if the two procedures bring about different seasonal and spatial variations in the soil water regime patterns, and if these patterns influence adaptation options. The present case study uses the agro-hydrological model SWAP (soil-water-atmosphere and plant) and studies future adaptability of grapevine. The study area is a viticultural area of Southern Italy (Valle Telesina, BN) devoted to the production of high quality wines (DOC and DOCG), and characterized by a complex geomorphology and pedology. The future climate scenario (2021-2050) was constructed applying statistical downscaling techniques to GCMs scenarios. The moisture regime for 25 soils of the selected study area was calculated by means of SWAP model, using both measured and estimated soil hydraulic properties. In the simulation, the upper boundary conditions were derived from the regional climate scenarios. Unit gradient in soil water potential was set as lower boundary condition. Crop-specific input data and model parameters were estimated on the basis of scientific literature and assumed to be generically representative of the species. From the output of the simulation runs, the relative evapotranspiration deficit (or Crop Water Stress Index - CWSI) of the soil units was calculated. Since CWSI is considered an important indicator of the qualitative grapevine responses, its pattern in both simulation procedures has been evaluated. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)

Determination of Selected Perfluorinated Alkyl Acids in ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The 1996 amendments to the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) required EPA to establish a Contaminant Candidate List (CCL), that contains a list of drinking water contaminants that the Agency will consider for future regulation. EPA must make a regulatory determination on a minimum of five contaminants every five years. The first CCL was published in 1998, and updates were anticipated every five years thereafter. One of the key pieces of information that must be available in order to make a regulatory determination is nationwide occurrence data for the chemical contaminants under consideration. Historically, EPA has collected the necessary occurrence data under its Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Regulations (UCMR). Under the UCMR, monitoring is conducted at selected drinking water utilities for specific contaminants of interest. The chemical analyses are usually performed by the utilities or by commercial laboratories. To meet the requirements of monitoring under the UCMR program, the analytical methods developed should be specific, sensitive, and practical enough for application in commercial laboratories. This task will focus on the development of analytical methods for chemicals identified on future CCLs or emerging contaminants not yet listed on the CCL. These methods will be used for the collection of occurrence data under future UCMRs. The objective of this research effort is to develop analytical methods to be used to measure the occurrence of

The Water Balance Portal in Saxony - An interactive web application concerning the impact of climate change on the water balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauffe, Corina; Schwarze, Robert; Röhm, Patric; Müller, Ruben; Dröge, Werner; Gurova, Anastasia; Winkler, Peter; Baldy, Agnes

2016-04-01

Changes in weather and climate lead to increasing discussions about reasons and possible future impacts on the hydrological cycle. The question of a changed distribution of water also concerns the federal state of Saxony in the eastern part of Germany. Especially with a look at the different and increased requirements for water authorities, water economy and the public. To define and prepare these future requirements estimations of the future development of the natural water resources are necessary. Therefore data, information, and forecast concerning the development of the several components of the water balance are needed. And to make the obtained information easily available for experts and the public, tools like the internet have to be used. Under these frame conditions the water balance portal Saxony (www.wasserhaushaltsportal.sachsen.de) was developed within the project KliWES. The overall approach of the project was devided into the so-called „3 pillars".The first pillar focused on the evaluation of the status quo water balance from 1951-2005 by using a complex area-wide analysis of measured data. Also it contained the generating of a database and the development of a physically based parameter model. Furthermore an extensive model evaluation has been conducted with a number of objective assessment criteria, to select an appropriate model for the project. The second pillar included the calibration of the water balance model and the impact study of climate and land use change (1961-2100) on the water balance of Saxonian catchments. In this context 13 climate scenarios and three land use scenarios were simulated. The web presence of these two pillars represents a classical information service, which provides finalized results at the spatial resolution of sub-catchments using GIS-based webpages. The third pillar focused on the development of an interactive expert system. It allows the user (public, officials and consulting engineers) to simulate the water balance with user defined catchment parameters for catchments in Saxony under recent climatic und climate change conditions.

Linking the physical and the socio-economic compartments of an integrated water and land use management model on a river basin scale using an object-oriented water supply model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barthel, Roland; Nickel, Darla; Meleg, Alejandro; Trifkovic, Aleksandar; Braun, Juergen

Within the framework of the research project ‘GLOWA-Danube’, a model of the water supply sector has been developed. GLOWA-Danube investigates long-term changes in the water cycle of the Upper Danube river basin in light of global change. For this purpose, the decision support system DANUBIA, comprising 15 fully coupled models, has been developed. Within DANUBIA the water supply model (‘WaterSupply’) forms the link between various physical models determining water quality and availability and several socio-economic models determining water consumption and demand. Having a central focus on public drinking water supply, its purpose is to correctly simulate the present day system of water extraction and distribution and the related costs, but also to allow meaningful response to possible future changes of boundary conditions, first and foremost changes in water demand or water availability and quality. Response mechanisms are also envisioned for changes in political and economic boundary conditions, and advances in technology. The model will be used locate critical regions which could experience water stress in the future, but does not aim to find the appropriate solutions or to predict the optimal organisation of water supply in the Danube Basin under such changing conditions. In the object-oriented model structure, both water supply companies (WSC) and communities are represented by main classes. Both classes have a limited view and knowledge of their environment. A community knows where and how much water is consumed and from which WSC it is served. A WSC possesses information regarding extraction sites and water rights, raw water quality and potential collaborating WSC. The WSC can perform actions that are different from ‘business as usual’. These deviations from their usual behaviour can be interpreted by decision makers but should not be regarded as a replacement for the decision-making process itself. The model is conceptualised using object-oriented concepts of the Unified Modelling Language (UML) and is implemented in JAVA. This short overview is meant to answer key questions such as why and how WaterSupply was implemented, what is unique and new about the model and what are the general lessons learned and the added value with regard to integrated modelling on a river basin scale. It is obvious that in the attempt to answer these questions it is not possible to satisfy experts from all the relevant related fields, which include computer sciences, economy, behavioural science and not least water supply engineering and hydrology.

Hydrogeologic framework of LaSalle County, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kay, Robert T.; Bailey, Clinton R.

2016-10-28

Water-supply needs in LaSalle County in northern Illinois are met by surface water and groundwater. Water-supply needs are expected to increase to serve future residential and mining uses. Available information on water use, geology, surface-water and groundwater hydrology, and water quality provides a hydrogeologic framework for LaSalle County that can be used to help plan the future use of the water resources.The Illinois, Fox, and Vermilion Rivers are the primary surface-water bodies in LaSalle County. These and other surface-water bodies are used for wastewater disposal in the county. The Vermilion River is used as a drinking-water supply in the southern part of the county. Water from the Illinois and Fox Rivers also is used for the generation of electric power.Glacial drift aquifers capable of yielding sufficient water for public supply are expected to be present in the Illinois River Valley in the western part of the county, the Troy Bedrock Valley in the northwestern part of the county, and in the Ticona Bedrock Valley in the south-central part of the county. Glacial drift aquifers capable of yielding sufficient water for residential supply are present in most of the county, although well yield often needs to be improved by using large-diameter wells. Arsenic concentrations above health-based standards have been detected in some wells in this aquifer. These aquifers are a viable source for additional water supply in some areas, but would require further characterization prior to full development.Shallow bedrock deposits comprising the sandstone units of the Ancell Group, the Prairie du Chien Group, dolomite of the Galena and Platteville Groups, and Silurian-aged dolomite are utilized for water supply where these units are at or near the bedrock surface or where overlain by Pennsylvanian-aged deposits. The availability of water from the shallow bedrock deposits depends primarily on the geologic unit analyzed. All these deposits can yield sufficient water for residential supply in at least some parts of the county, and sandstone deposits in the Ancell and Prairie du Chien Groups can yield sufficient water for residential or public supply in much of the county.The Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system comprises the most widespread, productive aquifers in northern Illinois and is used for water supply by a number of municipalities in the county. Water levels in the aquifer system have declined by as much as 300 feet in parts of LaSalle County. The aquifer contains naturally occurring concentrations of radium that are higher than established health guidelines in much of the county.

Evaluation of three watering and mulching techniques on transplanted trees at Adobe Dam

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moore, C.

1983-06-01

On the basis of these transplant studies, it is recommended that a minimal irrigation schedule be followed in the future for transplanted specimens. Transplanting early in the year reduces the watering requirements. Furthermore, after a one month adjustment period, trees watered once a month did well. Removal of supplemental water should be gradual, so as not to cause shock to the trees. Stone mulch appears to be both durable and effective as a mulching material, and can be cost effective if readily available on site. Fencing is a requirement for Palo Verde and Mesquite transplants but can be foregone onmore » Creosote. Management following transplanting should include regular site inspections for signs of insect infestation and for watering problems. Inspection personnel should watch for signs that transplants have been watered adequately and the fences are intact and not restricting tree growth.« less

Human health implications, risk assessment and remediation of As-contaminated water: A critical review.

PubMed

Shakoor, Muhammad Bilal; Nawaz, Rab; Hussain, Fida; Raza, Maimoona; Ali, Shafaqat; Rizwan, Muhammad; Oh, Sang-Eun; Ahmad, Sajjad

2017-12-01

Arsenic (As) is a naturally occurring metalloid and Class-A human carcinogen. Exposure to As via direct intake of As-contaminated water or ingestion of As-contaminated edible crops is considered a life threatening problem around the globe. Arsenic-laced drinking water has affected the lives of over 200 million people in 105 countries worldwide. Limited data are available on various health risk assessment models/frameworks used to predict carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health effects caused by As-contaminated water. Therefore, this discussion highlights the need for future research focusing on human health risk assessment of individual As species (both organic and inorganic) present in As-contaminated water. Various conventional and latest technologies for remediation of As-contaminated water are also reviewed along with a discussion of the fate of As-loaded waste and sludge. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of water security and water quality: impacts of climate and land-use change on the River Thames system.

PubMed

Whitehead, P G; Crossman, J; Balana, B B; Futter, M N; Comber, S; Jin, L; Skuras, D; Wade, A J; Bowes, M J; Read, D S

2013-11-13

The catchment of the River Thames, the principal river system in southern England, provides the main water supply for London but is highly vulnerable to changes in climate, land use and population. The river is eutrophic with significant algal blooms with phosphorus assumed to be the primary chemical indicator of ecosystem health. In the Thames Basin, phosphorus is available from point sources such as wastewater treatment plants and from diffuse sources such as agriculture. In order to predict vulnerability to future change, the integrated catchments model for phosphorus (INCA-P) has been applied to the river basin and used to assess the cost-effectiveness of a range of mitigation and adaptation strategies. It is shown that scenarios of future climate and land-use change will exacerbate the water quality problems, but a range of mitigation measures can improve the situation. A cost-effectiveness study has been undertaken to compare the economic benefits of each mitigation measure and to assess the phosphorus reductions achieved. The most effective strategy is to reduce fertilizer use by 20% together with the treatment of effluent to a high standard. Such measures will reduce the instream phosphorus concentrations to close to the EU Water Framework Directive target for the Thames.

National Research Program of the Water Resources Division, U.S. Geological Survey, fiscal year 1987

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedman, Linda C.; Donato, Christine N.

1988-01-01

The National Research Program (NRP) of the U.S. Geological Survey's Water Resources Division (WRD) had its beginnings in the late 1950's when "core research" was added as a line item to the Congressional budget. Since that time, the NRP has grown to encompass a broad spectrum of scientific investigations. The sciences of hydrology, mathematics, chemistry, physics, biology, geology, and engineering are used to gain a fundamental understanding of the processes that affect the availability, movement, and quality of the Nation's water resources. The knowledge gained and methods developed have great value to WRD's operational program. Results of the investigations conducted by the NRP are applicable not only to the solution of current water problems, but also to future issues, anticipated or unanticipated, that may affect the Nation's water resources.

National Research Program of the Water Resources Division, U. S. Geological Survey, Fiscal Year 1989

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eggers, JoAnn; Friedman, Linda C.

1989-01-01

The National Research Program (NRP) of the U.S. Geological Survey's Water Resources Division (WRD) had its beginnings in the late 1950's when "core research" was added as a line item to the Congressional budget. Since that time, the NRP has grown to encompass a broad spectrum of scientific investigations. The sciences of hydrology, mathematics, chemistry, physics, ecology, biology, geology, and engineering are used to gain a fundamental understanding of the processes that affect the availability, movement, and quality of the Nation's water resources. The knowledge gained and methods developed have great value to WRD's operational program. Results of the investigations conducted by the NRP are applicable not only to the solution of current water problems but also to future issues, anticipated or unanticipated, that may affect the Nation's water resources.

Human-water interactions in Myanmar's Dry Zone under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taft, Linda; Evers, Mariele

2016-04-01

Understanding human-water interactions is particularly essential in countries where the economy and the people's well-being and income strongly depend on the availability and quality of sufficient water resources. Such a strong dependency on water is existent in Myanmar's Dry Zone located in the central Ayeyarwady River basin. In this area, rainfall is associated with high heterogeneity across space and time. Precipitation amounts in the Dry Zone (500-1000 mm annually) are generally less compared to other regions in Myanmar (up to 4000-6000 mm). Following the Global Climate Risk Index, Myanmar is one of the countries which were most affected by extreme weather events between 1994 and 2013. Severe drought periods e.g in the years 1997-1998, 2010 and 2014 led to crop failures and water shortage in the Dry Zone, where more than 14 mio people predominantly practice agriculture. Due to the high variability of rainfalls, farming is only possible with irrigation, mainly conducted by canal systems from the rivers and groundwater withdrawal. Myanmar is recently facing big challenges which result from comprehensive political and economic reforms since 2011. These may also include increasing water use by new industrial zones and urbanization. However, not only policy and economy modify the need for water. Variability of river runoff and changes in seasonality are expected as a result of climate change. The overarching goal of the study is to understand and increase the knowledge on human-water-climate interactions and to elaborate possible future scenarios for Myanmar's Dry Zone. It is not well studied yet how current and future climate change and increasing human impact will influence the country's abundant water resources including groundwater. Therefore, the first step of this study is to identify the major drivers within the central Ayeyarwady River basin. We are in the process of collecting and analyzing data sets and information including hydrologic and eco-hydrologic (discharge, sediment load, river biology), climatic (precipitation, temperature, evaporation) and anthropologic (water use, water management, dam projects) aspects. We identified key study sites in the Dry Zone, in order to assess and study the interplays, dependencies and feedbacks within the human-water system. First results based on meteorological data sets and literature survey indicate, that the central Dry Zone is affected by increasing interannual rainfall variability. Additionally, human impacts in this region are increasing due to numerous pumping (both river and groundwater) activities which will possibly alter water availability, river ecology and hydraulic processes in the near future. At the current state, the main course of the Ayeyarwady River is still unregulated but several larger dam projects are in the planning phase in the central area which will also impact the rich river biodiversity as well as the society. Our research will contribute to understand human-water-climate interactions in Myanmar's central Dry Zone with possible transferability to other large river basins in Asia.

Reproductive and developmental effects of disinfection by-products in drinking water.

PubMed Central

Reif, J S; Hatch, M C; Bracken, M; Holmes, L B; Schwetz, B A; Singer, P C

1996-01-01

Recent epidemiologic studies have reported associations between the consumption of chlorinated drinking water and reproductive and developmental effects. Here we review the available epidemiologic data, assess the hazard potential posed by exposure to disinfection by-products, identify critical data gaps, and offer recommendations for further research. The epidemiologic evidence supporting associations between exposure to water disinfection by-products (DBPs) and adverse pregnancy outcomes is sparse, and positive findings should be interpreted cautiously. The methods used during the early stages of research in this area have been diverse. Variability in exposure assessment and endpoints makes it difficult to synthesize or combine the available data. Exposure misclassification and unmeasured confounding may have lead to bias in risk estimation. Future studies of reproductive outcome and exposure to chlorinated water should use improved methods for exposure assessment to 1) assure selection of appropriate exposure markers, 2) assess seasonal and annual fluctuations in DBPs, 3) assess variability within the distribution system, and 4) assess exposure through multiple routes such as bathing and showering, as well as consumption. Population-based studies should be conducted to evaluate male and female fertility, conception delay, growth retardation, and specific birth defects. The reproductive and developmental effects of exposure to DBPs could be efficiently explored in ongoing investigations by incorporating valid exposure markers and relevant questionnaire information. Future studies should make use of naturally occurring variability in the concentrations of DBPs and may incorporate biomarkers of exposure and effect in their design. Epidemiologic investigations should be conducted in parallel with laboratory-based and animal studies in a coordinated, multidisciplinary approach. PMID:8930546

Estimating the effects of potential climate and land use changes on hydrologic processes of a large agriculture dominated watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neupane, Ram P.; Kumar, Sandeep

2015-10-01

Land use and climate are two major components that directly influence catchment hydrologic processes, and therefore better understanding of their effects is crucial for future land use planning and water resources management. We applied Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess the effects of potential land use change and climate variability on hydrologic processes of large agriculture dominated Big Sioux River (BSR) watershed located in North Central region of USA. Future climate change scenarios were simulated using average output of temperature and precipitation data derived from Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (B1, A1B, and A2) for end-21st century. Land use change was modeled spatially based on historic long-term pattern of agricultural transformation in the basin, and included the expansion of corn (Zea mays L.) cultivation by 2, 5, and 10%. We estimated higher surface runoff in all land use scenarios with maximum increase of 4% while expanding 10% corn cultivation in the basin. Annual stream discharge was estimated higher with maximum increase of 72% in SRES-B1 attributed from higher groundwater contribution of 152% in the same scenario. We assessed increased precipitation during spring season but the summer precipitation decreased substantially in all climate change scenarios. Similar to decreased summer precipitation, discharge of the BSR also decreased potentially affecting agricultural production due to reduced future water availability during crop growing season in the basin. However, combined effects of potential land use change with climate variability enhanced for higher annual discharge of the BSR. Therefore, these estimations can be crucial for implications of future land use planning and water resources management of the basin.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clark, Corrie E.; Harto, Christopher B.; Schroeder, Jenna N.

This report is the third in a series of reports sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Program in which a range of water-related issues surrounding geothermal power production are evaluated. The first report made an initial attempt at quantifying the life cycle fresh water requirements of geothermal power-generating systems and explored operational and environmental concerns related to the geochemical composition of geothermal fluids. The initial analysis of life cycle fresh water consumption of geothermal power-generating systems identified that operational water requirements consumed the vast majority of water across the life cycle. However, it relied upon limited operationalmore » water consumption data and did not account for belowground operational losses for enhanced geothermal systems (EGSs). A second report presented an initial assessment of fresh water demand for future growth in utility-scale geothermal power generation. The current analysis builds upon this work to improve life cycle fresh water consumption estimates and incorporates regional water availability into the resource assessment to improve the identification of areas where future growth in geothermal electricity generation may encounter water challenges. This report is divided into nine chapters. Chapter 1 gives the background of the project and its purpose, which is to assess the water consumption of geothermal technologies and identify areas where water availability may present a challenge to utility-scale geothermal development. Water consumption refers to the water that is withdrawn from a resource such as a river, lake, or nongeothermal aquifer that is not returned to that resource. The geothermal electricity generation technologies evaluated in this study include conventional hydrothermal flash and binary systems, as well as EGSs that rely on engineering a productive reservoir where heat exists, but where water availability or permeability may be limited. Chapter 2 describes the approach and methods for this work and identifies the four power plant scenarios evaluated: a 20-MW EGS binary plant, a 50-MW EGS binary plant, a 10-MW hydrothermal binary plant, and a 50-MW hydrothermal flash plant. The methods focus on (1) the collection of data to improve estimation of EGS stimulation volumes, aboveground operational consumption for all geothermal technologies, and belowground operational consumption for EGS; and (2) the mapping of the geothermal and water resources of the western United States to assist in the identification of potential water challenges to geothermal growth. Chapters 3 and 4 present the water requirements for the power plant life cycle. Chapter 3 presents the results of the current data collection effort, and Chapter 4 presents the normalized volume of fresh water consumed at each life cycle stage per lifetime energy output for the power plant scenarios evaluated. Over the life cycle of a geothermal power plant, from construction through 30 years of operation, the majority of water is consumed by plant operations. For the EGS binary scenarios, where dry cooling was assumed, belowground operational water loss is the greatest contributor depending upon the physical and operational conditions of the reservoir. Total life cycle water consumption requirements for air-cooled EGS binary scenarios vary between 0.22 and 1.85 gal/kWh, depending upon the extent of belowground operational water consumption. The air-cooled hydrothermal binary and flash plants experience far less fresh water consumption over the life cycle, at 0.04 gal/kWh. Fresh water requirements associated with air- cooled binary operations are primarily from aboveground water needs, including dust control, maintenance, and domestic use. Although wet-cooled hydrothermal flash systems require water for cooling, these plants generally rely upon the geofluid, fluid from the geothermal reservoir, which typically has high salinity and total dissolved solids concentration and is much warmer than normal groundwater sources, for their cooling water needs; thus, while there is considerable geofluid loss at 2.7 gal/kWh, fresh water consumption during operations is similar to that of aircooled binary systems. Chapter 5 presents the assessment of water demand for future growth in deployment of utility-scale geothermal power generation. The approach combines the life cycle analysis of geothermal water consumption with a geothermal supply curve according to resource type, levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), and potential growth scenarios. A total of 17 growth scenarios were evaluated. In general, the scenarios that assumed lower costs for EGSs as a result of learning and technological improvements resulted in greater geothermal potential, but also significantly greater water demand due to the higher water consumption by EGSs. It was shown, however, that this effect could be largely mitigated if nonpotable water sources were used for belowground operational water demands. The geographical areas that showed the highest water demand for most growth scenarios were southern and northern California, as well as most of Nevada. In addition to water demand by geothermal power production, Chapter 5 includes data on water availability for geothermal development areas. A qualitative analysis is included that identifies some of the basins where the limited availability of water is most likely to affect the development of geothermal resources. The data indicate that water availability is fairly limited, especially under drought conditions, in most of the areas with significant near- and medium-term geothermal potential. Southern California was found to have the greatest potential for water-related challenges with its combination of high geothermal potential and limited water availability. The results of this work are summarized in Chapter 6. Overall, this work highlights the importance of utilizing dry cooling systems for binary and EGS systems and minimizing fresh water consumption throughout the life cycle of geothermal power development. The large resource base for EGSs represents a major opportunity for the geothermal industry; however, depending upon geology, these systems can require large quantities of makeup water due to belowground reservoir losses. Identifying potential sources of compatible degraded or low-quality water for use for makeup injection for EGS and flash systems represents an important opportunity to reduce the impacts of geothermal development on fresh water resources. The importance of identifying alternative water sources for geothermal systems is heightened by the fact that a large fraction of the geothermal resource is located in areas already experiencing water stress. Chapter 7 is a glossary of the technical terms used in the report, and Chapters 8 and 9 provide references and a bibliography, respectively.« less

SOFIA: A Promising Resource for Future Nova Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helton, L. A.; Sofia Science Team

2014-12-01

The Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA) is a 2.5-m telescope carried on board a Boeing 747-SP aircraft. Optimized for observations from infrared through sub-mm wavelengths, SOFIA observes from an altitude of 37,000 - 45,000 feet, above 99% of the atmospheric water vapor. The Observatory's complement of instruments possesses a broad range of capabilities, many of which are especially well suited for observations of classical novae, recurrent novae, and other cataclysmic variables. Here we present a selection of the instruments available on board SOFIA that may prove to be very useful for future novae studies.

A System Dynamics Modeling of Water Supply and Demand in Las Vegas Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parajuli, R.; Kalra, A.; Mastino, L.; Velotta, M.; Ahmad, S.

2017-12-01

The rise in population and change in climate have posed the uncertainties in the balance between supply and demand of water. The current study deals with the water management issues in Las Vegas Valley (LVV) using Stella, a system dynamics modeling software, to model the feedback based relationship between supply and demand parameters. Population parameters were obtained from Center for Business and Economic Research while historical water demand and conservation practices were modeled as per the information provided by local authorities. The water surface elevation of Lake Mead, which is the prime source of water supply to the region, was modeled as the supply side whereas the water demand in LVV was modeled as the demand side. The study was done from the period of 1989 to 2049 with 1989 to 2012 as the historical one and the period from 2013 to 2049 as the future period. This study utilizes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project data sets (2013-2049) (CMIP3&5) to model different future climatic scenarios. The model simulates the past dynamics of supply and demand, and then forecasts the future water budget for the forecasted future population and future climatic conditions. The results can be utilized by the water authorities in understanding the future water status and hence plan suitable conservation policies to allocate future water budget and achieve sustainable water management.

Assessing climate change impacts on water resources in remote mountain regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buytaert, Wouter; De Bièvre, Bert

2013-04-01

From a water resources perspective, remote mountain regions are often considered as a basket case. They are often regions where poverty is often interlocked with multiple threats to water supply, data scarcity, and high uncertainties. In these environments, it is paramount to generate locally relevant knowledge about water resources and how they impact local livelihoods. This is often problematic. Existing environmental data collection tends to be geographically biased towards more densely populated regions, and prioritized towards strategic economic activities. Data may also be locked behind institutional and technological barriers. These issues create a "knowledge trap" for data-poor regions, which is especially acute in remote and hard-to-reach mountain regions. We present lessons learned from a decade of water resources research in remote mountain regions of the Andes, Africa and South Asia. We review the entire tool chain of assessing climate change impacts on water resources, including the interrogation and downscaling of global circulation models, translating climate variables in water availability and access, and assessing local vulnerability. In global circulation models, mountain regions often stand out as regions of high uncertainties and lack of agreement of future trends. This is partly a technical artifact because of the different resolution and representation of mountain topography, but it also highlights fundamental uncertainties in climate impacts on mountain climate. This problem also affects downscaling efforts, because regional climate models should be run in very high spatial resolution to resolve local gradients, which is computationally very expensive. At the same time statistical downscaling methods may fail to find significant relations between local climate properties and synoptic processes. Further uncertainties are introduced when downscaled climate variables such as precipitation and temperature are to be translated in hydrologically relevant variables such as streamflow and groundwater recharge. Fundamental limitations in both the understanding of hydrological processes in mountain regions (e.g., glacier melt, wetland attenuation, groundwater flows) and in data availability introduce large uncertainties. Lastly, assessing access to water resources is a major challenge. Topographical gradients and barriers, as well as strong spatiotemporal variations in hydrological processes, makes it particularly difficult to assess which parts of the mountain population is most vulnerable to future perturbations of the water cycle.

Water Transfers, Air Quality, Ecosystems and Population Growth at the US-Mexico Border: An Integrated Model of the Mexicali and Imperial Valleys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forster, C. B.; Gonzalez, T.; Peach, J.; Kjelland, M.; Collins, K.; Grant, W. E.

2006-12-01

Borderland communities in the Imperial-Mexicali Valleys (IMVs) of California (U.S.A.) and Mexicali (Mexico) are experiencing socioeconomic and environmental changes driven by policy makers and environmental conditions both within and outside the IMVs. The Colorado River Quantification Settlement Agreement (QSA) of 2003 will transfer 30 million acre-feet of Colorado River water from Imperial Valley (IV) agricultural users to Southern California urban users over a 75-year period. Because the water level of the Salton Sea is supported by agricultural runoff, reduced water flows to the sea raise concerns that: 1) air quality will be degraded as dust is generated by the drying Sea-bed, and 2) declining fish populations due to increasing salinity will no longer support birds migrating along a key avian flyway. Rapid population growth in the Mexican border-city of Mexicali, combined with new power plants and plans for water reuse, raises concerns that: 1) the quantity and quality of water supplied to the Salton Sea will decline, and 2) increased vehicle use and electrical power generation will lead to declining air quality in the binational air basin. Each concern may be affected by climate change. As environmental factors change, so too may the agricultural economy of the Imperial Valley that, in turn, depends on the availability of both water and manual labor. The economy of Mexicali is dominated by the maquiladora (manufacturing) industry that depends upon the availability of power, labor and water. A system dynamics model, with annual time step, simulates this complex binational system. The model was developed by an academic team with input from local experts/decision-makers from both Mexico and the US. We are preparing to engage community stakeholders and decision-makers in exploring the model. Insights gained from model results yield better understanding of the consequences of alternative future scenarios that include: QSA water transfers and land fallowing plans, socioeconomic change, climate-related variations in future Colorado River flows, plans for Salton Sea restoration, and changing wastewater discharge from Mexicali.

Coupled Crop/Hydrology Model to Estimate Expanded Irrigation Impact on Water Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handyside, C. T.; Cruise, J.

2017-12-01

A coupled agricultural and hydrologic systems model is used to examine the environmental impact of irrigation in the Southeast. A gridded crop model for the Southeast is used to determine regional irrigation demand. This irrigation demand is used in a regional hydrologic model to determine the hydrologic impact of irrigation. For the Southeast to maintain/expand irrigated agricultural production and provide adaptation to climate change and climate variability it will require integrated agricultural and hydrologic system models that can calculate irrigation demand and the impact of the this demand on the river hydrology. These integrated models can be used as (1) historical tools to examine vulnerability of expanded irrigation to past climate extremes (2) future tools to examine the sustainability of expanded irrigation under future climate scenarios and (3) a real-time tool to allow dynamic water resource management. Such tools are necessary to assure stakeholders and the public that irrigation can be carried out in a sustainable manner. The system tools to be discussed include a gridded version of the crop modeling system (DSSAT). The gridded model is referred to as GriDSSAT. The irrigation demand from GriDSSAT is coupled to a regional hydrologic model developed by the Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center of the USDA Forest Service) (WaSSI). The crop model provides the dynamic irrigation demand which is a function of the weather. The hydrologic model includes all other competing uses of water. Examples of use the crop model coupled with the hydrologic model include historical analyses which show the change in hydrology as additional acres of irrigated land are added to water sheds. The first order change in hydrology is computed in terms of changes in the Water Availability Stress Index (WASSI) which is the ratio of water demand (irrigation, public water supply, industrial use, etc.) and water availability from the hydrologic model. Also, statistics such as the number of times certain WASSI thresholds are exceeded are calculated to show the impact of expanded irrigation during times of hydrologic drought and the coincident use of water by other sectors. Also, integrated downstream impacts of irrigation are also calculated through changes in flows through the whole river systems.

Hybrid-optimization algorithm for the management of a conjunctive-use project and well field design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chiu, Yung-Chia; Nishikawa, Tracy; Martin, Peter

2012-01-01

Hi-Desert Water District (HDWD), the primary water-management agency in the Warren Groundwater Basin, California, plans to construct a waste water treatment plant to reduce future septic-tank effluent from reaching the groundwater system. The treated waste water will be reclaimed by recharging the groundwater basin via recharge ponds as part of a larger conjunctive-use strategy. HDWD wishes to identify the least-cost conjunctiveuse strategies for managing imported surface water, reclaimed water, and local groundwater. As formulated, the mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) groundwater-management problem seeks to minimize water delivery costs subject to constraints including potential locations of the new pumping wells, California State regulations, groundwater-level constraints, water-supply demand, available imported water, and pump/recharge capacities. In this study, a hybrid-optimization algorithm, which couples a genetic algorithm and successive-linear programming, is developed to solve the MINLP problem. The algorithm was tested by comparing results to the enumerative solution for a simplified version of the HDWD groundwater-management problem. The results indicate that the hybrid-optimization algorithm can identify the global optimum. The hybrid-optimization algorithm is then applied to solve a complex groundwater-management problem. Sensitivity analyses were also performed to assess the impact of varying the new recharge pond orientation, varying the mixing ratio of reclaimed water and pumped water, and varying the amount of imported water available. The developed conjunctive management model can provide HDWD water managers with information that will improve their ability to manage their surface water, reclaimed water, and groundwater resources.

Elevated growth temperatures alter hydraulic characteristics in trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) seedlings: implications for tree drought tolerance

Treesearch

Danielle A. Way; Jean-Christophe Domec; Robert B. Jackson

2013-01-01

Although climate change will alter both soil water availability and evaporative demand, our understanding of how future climate conditions will alter tree hydraulic architecture is limited. Here, we demonstrate that growth at elevated temperatures (ambient +5 °C) affects hydraulic traits in seedlings of the deciduous boreal tree species Populus tremuloides, with the...

Can we use the past as a lens to the future? Using historic events to predict regional grassland and shrubland responses to multi-year drought or wet periods under climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Question/Methods Ecologists are being challenged to predict ecosystem responses under changing climatic conditions. Water availability is the primary driver of ecosystem processes in temperate grasslands and shrublands, but uncertainty in the magnitude and direction of change in precipita...

Leaf mass area, Feb2016-May2016, PA-SLZ, PA-PNM, PA-BCI: Panama

DOE Data Explorer

Ely, Kim [Brookhaven National Lab; Rogers, Alistair [Brookhaven National Lab; Serbin, Shawn [Brookhaven National Lab; Wu, Jin [BNL; Wolfe, Brett [Smithsonian; Dickman, Turin [Los Alamos National Lab; Collins, Adam [Los Alamos National Lab; Detto, Matteo [Princeton; Grossiord, Charlotte [Los Alamos National Lab; McDowell, Nate [Los Alamos National Lab; Michaletz, Sean

2017-01-01

Leaf mass per unit area measured on a monthly basis from Feb to April 2016 at SLZ and PNM. Data from BCI only available for March. This data was collected as part of the 2016 ENSO campaign. See related datasets (existing and future) for further sample details, leaf water potential, leaf spectra, gas exchange and leaf chemistry.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grenzeback, L. R.; Brown, A.; Fischer, M. J.

2013-03-01

Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and by extrapolation, to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050, requiring ever-greater amounts of energy. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand; the possible trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand and related energy use. After describing federal policy actions that could influencemore » freight demand, the report then summarizes the available analytical models for forecasting freight demand, and identifies possible areas for future action.« less

Coconut-based biosorbents for water treatment--a review of the recent literature.

PubMed

Bhatnagar, Amit; Vilar, Vítor J P; Botelho, Cidália M S; Boaventura, Rui A R

2010-10-15

Biosorption is an emerging technique for water treatment utilizing abundantly available biomaterials (especially agricultural wastes). Among several agricultural wastes studied as biosorbents for water treatment, coconut has been of great importance as various parts of this tree (e.g. coir, shell, etc.) have been extensively studied as biosorbents for the removal of diverse type of pollutants from water. Coconut-based agricultural wastes have gained wide attention as effective biosorbents due to low-cost and significant adsorption potential for the removal of various aquatic pollutants. In this review, an extensive list of coconut-based biosorbents from vast literature has been compiled and their adsorption capacities for various aquatic pollutants as available in the literature are presented. Available abundantly, high biosorption capacity, cost-effectiveness and renewability are the important factors making these materials as economical alternatives for water treatment and waste remediation. This paper presents a state of the art review of coconut-based biosorbents used for water pollution control, highlighting and discussing key advancement on the preparation of novel adsorbents utilizing coconut wastes, its major challenges together with the future prospective. It is evident from the literature survey that coconut-based biosorbents have shown good potential for the removal of various aquatic pollutants. However, still there is a need to find out the practical utility of such developed adsorbents on commercial scale, leading to the superior improvement of pollution control and environmental preservation. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

EnviroAtlas - Fresno, CA - Domestic Water Demand per Day by U.S. Census Block Group

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

As included in this EnviroAtlas dataset, community level domestic water demand is calculated using locally available water use data per capita in gallons of water per day (GPD), distributed dasymetrically, and summarized by Census block group. Domestic water use, as defined in this case, is intended to represent residential indoor and outdoor water use (e.g., cooking hygiene, landscaping, pools, etc.) for primary residences (i.e., excluding second homes and tourism rentals). For the purposes of this metric, these publicly-supplied estimates are also applied and considered representative of local self-supplied water use. Specific to Fresno, CA, urban water management plan data is available through the California Department of Water Resources (CADWR). Suppliers that provide over 3,000 acre-feet or serve more than 3,000 connections are required to evaluate future water supplies and implement plans to reduce 2010 baseline consumption by 20% by 2020. Within the EnviroAtlas Fresno study area, there are two service providers, City of Fresno and City of Clovis, with baseline 2010 water use estimates of 313 and 249 GPD respectively.This dataset was produced by the U.S. EPA to support research and online mapping activities related to EnviroAtlas. EnviroAtlas (https://www.epa.gov/enviroatlas) allows the user to interact with a web-based, easy-to-use, mapping application to view and analyze multiple ecosystem services for the contiguous United States. The dataset is availab

USGS cold-water coral geographic database-Gulf of Mexico and western North Atlantic Ocean, version 1.0

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scanlon, Kathryn M.; Waller, Rhian G.; Sirotek, Alexander R.; Knisel, Julia M.; O'Malley, John; Alesandrini, Stian

2010-01-01

The USGS Cold-Water Coral Geographic Database (CoWCoG) provides a tool for researchers and managers interested in studying, protecting, and/or utilizing cold-water coral habitats in the Gulf of Mexico and western North Atlantic Ocean.  The database makes information about the locations and taxonomy of cold-water corals available to the public in an easy-to-access form while preserving the scientific integrity of the data.  The database includes over 1700 entries, mostly from published scientific literature, museum collections, and other databases.  The CoWCoG database is easy to search in a variety of ways, and data can be quickly displayed in table form and on a map by using only the software included with this publication.  Subsets of the database can be selected on the basis of geographic location, taxonomy, or other criteria and exported to one of several available file formats.  Future versions of the database are being planned to cover a larger geographic area and additional taxa.

Statistical modeling of daily and subdaily stream temperatures: Application to the Methow River Basin, Washington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldwell, R. J.; Gangopadhyay, S.; Bountry, J.; Lai, Y.; Elsner, M. M.

2013-07-01

Management of water temperatures in the Columbia River Basin (Washington) is critical because water projects have substantially altered the habitat of Endangered Species Act listed species, such as salmon, throughout the basin. This is most important in tributaries to the Columbia, such as the Methow River, where the spawning and rearing life stages of these cold water fishes occurs. Climate change projections generally predict increasing air temperatures across the western United States, with less confidence regarding shifts in precipitation. As air temperatures rise, we anticipate a corresponding increase in water temperatures, which may alter the timing and availability of habitat for fish reproduction and growth. To assess the impact of future climate change in the Methow River, we couple historical climate and future climate projections with a statistical modeling framework to predict daily mean stream temperatures. A K-nearest neighbor algorithm is also employed to: (i) adjust the climate projections for biases compared to the observed record and (ii) provide a reference for performing spatiotemporal disaggregation in future hydraulic modeling of stream habitat. The statistical models indicate the primary drivers of stream temperature are maximum and minimum air temperature and stream flow and show reasonable skill in predictability. When compared to the historical reference time period of 1916-2006, we conclude that increases in stream temperature are expected to occur at each subsequent time horizon representative of the year 2020, 2040, and 2080, with an increase of 0.8 ± 1.9°C by the year 2080.