Toward the year 2000.

PubMed

1973-12-01

If the world population continues to grow at its present rate, in only about 35 more years there will be an additional 3.5 billion people. Although it is likely that the growth rate will slow down in the future, there will be an increase of between 2.3-3.5 billion people by the year 2000. At that time the Asian, African, and Latin American regions of the world will account for between 81-84% of world population, regardless of whether there is a fertility decline. Simultaneously, the populations of Europe and North America will decrease from 26 to between 16-19%. The People's Republic of China is now working to contain population increase, but despite the efforts for every 10 Chinese alive in 1970 there will be 15 in the year 2000. For the other 9 most populous less developed countries, there will be nearly 20 persons for every 10. As this figure is 12 in the year 2000 for every 10 Russians or Americans in 1970, a significant reduction in the growth rate of population in the 10 largest less developed countries would do much to reduce the world's population problems. The number of children born between now and the year 2000 depends on the fertility of all women in the childbearing ages during that period. Finally, as the population of the world continues to increase, there will be a marked concentration of the world's children in the poorer nations, and this will be a major problem in these developing countries.

Fishes in a changing world: learning from the past to promote sustainability of fish populations.

PubMed

Gordon, T A C; Harding, H R; Clever, F K; Davidson, I K; Davison, W; Montgomery, D W; Weatherhead, R C; Windsor, F M; Armstrong, J D; Bardonnet, A; Bergman, E; Britton, J R; Côté, I M; D'agostino, D; Greenberg, L A; Harborne, A R; Kahilainen, K K; Metcalfe, N B; Mills, S C; Milner, N J; Mittermayer, F H; Montorio, L; Nedelec, S L; Prokkola, J M; Rutterford, L A; Salvanes, A G V; Simpson, S D; Vainikka, A; Pinnegar, J K; Santos, E M

2018-03-01

Populations of fishes provide valuable services for billions of people, but face diverse and interacting threats that jeopardize their sustainability. Human population growth and intensifying resource use for food, water, energy and goods are compromising fish populations through a variety of mechanisms, including overfishing, habitat degradation and declines in water quality. The important challenges raised by these issues have been recognized and have led to considerable advances over past decades in managing and mitigating threats to fishes worldwide. In this review, we identify the major threats faced by fish populations alongside recent advances that are helping to address these issues. There are very significant efforts worldwide directed towards ensuring a sustainable future for the world's fishes and fisheries and those who rely on them. Although considerable challenges remain, by drawing attention to successful mitigation of threats to fish and fisheries we hope to provide the encouragement and direction that will allow these challenges to be overcome in the future. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

United Nations population estimates and projections with special reference to the Arab world.

PubMed

1980-06-01

The United Nations Population Division has been preparing world population estimates and projections by region since 1951, by country since 1958, and by sex and age for each country since 1968. The latest revision of the projections was prepared in 1978. The 2 basic methods of preparing population projections are mathematical and component, and the component methods are most widely used at present, by both national governments and the United Nations. Before projections are prepared, the base data must be evaluated and adjusted. In the UN projections, the assumptions imply that orderly progress will be made and that there will be no catastrophes such as famines and epidemics during the projection period. The projectins are prepared in 4 variants--"medium", "high," "low," and "constant." A major source of uncertainty in populations arises from the problem of estimating future fertility. Changes in fertility affect the age distribution and the total population size more than changes in mortality. At the UN, mortality assumptions are initially made in terms of life expectancy at birth and then in terms of age-sex patterns of probabilities of survival corresponding to different life expectancy levels at birth. Some of the results of the 1978 revision of the medium variant of the estimates and projections are shown in table form. The world total population of 4,033,000,000 in 1975 is projected to reach 6,199,000,000 by the year 2000. Among the major areas and regions of the world, the most rapid population growth for the future is projected for the Arab countries, Africa and Latin America. Of the 2 Arab regions, North Africa and Southwest Asia, Southwest Asia is expected to have the higher rate of growth because of assumed continued immigration. Within the Arab regions, there has been an increasing diversity in the rate of population growth. This divergence is expected to narrow with assumed decreased migration rates during the 1980s.

Human Needs and Nature's Balance: Population, Resources, and the Environment. A Population Learning Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crews, Kimberly A.

One of the challenges that face humanity is how to manage resource and environmental endowments in a way that will guarantee continued survival and ensure the well-being of future generations. Those resources most important to human survival are food, water, and energy. When the population of the world reached 5 billion in 1987, approximately 87…

A Cyber Ray Hope for Ethiopian Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Szente, Judit; Hoot, James

2004-01-01

Major obstacles threaten the future of Ethiopia. Global publicity regarding the drought of 1986 has left the world with images of starving and orphaned Ethiopian children. Such conditions do still exist in parts of this nation, in which 45 percent of the population falls below the national poverty line (The World Factbook, 2003). In a nation of…

Neither Feast nor Famine: Summary of the Second Twenty Year Forecast Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Enzer, Selwyn; And Others

1977-01-01

The key question to ask in determining whether a solution will be found to the world food problem is whether people will learn to effectively manage the food/population balance. Predictions concerning the world food situation should be made on the basis of these factors: (1) possible future changes involving technological development, political…

The role of plant pathology and plant pathology journals in future food security

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The world's population is expected to exceed 9 billion by 2050 and this will require a significant increase in crop production for global food security. Future increases in crop production will require limiting the effects of weeds, insects, and diseases incited by fungi, viruses, nematodes, and ba...

Future Estimation of Convenience Living Facilities Withdrawal due to Population Decline all Over Japan from 2010 TO 2040 - Focus on Supermarkets, Convenience Stores and Drugstores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishimoto, Yuka; Akiyama, Yuki; Shibasaki, Ryosuke

2016-06-01

Population explosion is considered to be one of the most crucial problems in the world. However, in Japan, the opposite problem: population decline has become serious now. Japanese population is estimated to decrease by twenty millions in 2040. This negative situation will cause to increase areas where many residents cannot make a daily living all over Japan because many convenience living facilities such as supermarkets, convenience stores and drugstores will be difficult to maintain their market area population due to future population decline. In our research, we used point data of convenience living facilities developed by address geocoding of digital telephone directory and point data of future population projection developed by distribution of Japanese official population projection data proportionally among the building volume of digital residential map, which can monitor building volumes all over Japan. In conclusion, we estimated that various convenience living facilities in Japan will shrink and close by population decline in near future. In particular, it is cleared that approximately 14.7% of supermarkets will be possible to withdraw all over Japan by 2040. In addition, it is cleared that over 40% of supermarkets in some countryside prefectures will be possible to withdraw by 2040. Thus, we estimated future distributions of convenience living facilities that cannot maintain their market area population due to future population decline. Moreover, we estimated the number of people that they will become inconvenience in buying fresh foods.

Weed Management in 2050: Perspective on the Future of Weed Science

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The discipline of weed science is at a critical juncture. Decades of efficient chemical weed control has led to a rise in the number of herbicide resistant weed populations, with few new herbicides and increasing farm labor scarcity available to counter this trend. At the same time, world population...

The World Summit for Social Development.

PubMed

1995-01-01

The three goals of the UN World Summit for Social Development are to attack poverty, build solidarity, and create jobs. Unprecedented population growth has led to recognition of the need for a new, people-centered vision of development to counter the mutually reinforcing threats posed to world stability by poverty, unemployment, and social disintegration. This population growth may result in an inability of humanity to adapt and create unrelenting pressure on the world's natural resources. It has become increasingly recognized that improvements in the status of women will be vital to ensuring the future of humanity. Giving women the ability to decide their family size will eliminate hundreds of thousands of maternal deaths each year and will slow population growth while it increases women's productivity and control over resources. As the industrialized nations engage in unsustainable patterns of production and consumption, the lowest-income countries are caught in a "poverty-population-environment spiral." Although population growth is gradually slowing, the population of the world could double by 2050, with 95% of the growth occurring in developing countries. Concern is also mounting over the increasing urbanization of the world as well as the fact that while the populations of poor countries are becoming larger and younger, the population of industrialized countries are becoming older and smaller. The new vision of sustainable development involves generating economic growth, distributing benefits equitably, and allowing the regeneration of the environment. Without such security, the world can not achieve peace. The symptoms of social discrimination include social exclusion, which affects 90% of the world's population; sex and racial discrimination, which lowers the quality of life and increases life-threatening risks for women, indigenous people, and Blacks; violence and abuse, reflected in fact that the US has the highest incidence of murder in the world, in the 200,000 street children in Brazil, in the 500,000 child prostitutes in Asia, and in violence against women world-wide; crime, which is increasing and is often drug-related; migration, which affects 1/115 people on earth; and conflict, which increasingly occurs within national borders and involves civilian casualties and which leads to military spending of approximately $800 billion a year.

Population Growth and Hunger. Hearing before the Select Committee on Hunger. House of Representatives, Ninety-Ninth Congress, First Session (June 6, 1985).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Congress of the U.S., Washington, DC. House Select Committee on Hunger.

Recommendations and issues concerning population growth rate and its linkage to hunger and malnutrition, family planning programs and U.S. foreign aid are presented in statements from representatives in Congress from the states of Texas, Michigan, Illinois and New York, and also representatives from World Population Society, the Futures Group,…

A call for action on disarmament and population.

PubMed

Fukuda, T

1994-08-01

Takeo Fukuda, former prime minister of Japan, opened the 12th session of the InterAction Council in Dresden, Germany, with a speech on June 7, 1994. The council has three priority concerns: world peace and disarmament; global problems of population increase, environmental degradation, resource and energy questions; and the question of activating the world economy. The cold war structure has crumbled, but stockpiled nuclear weapons still pose a threat to the world. Under such a situation, the role of multilateral organizations, particularly the UN, has become increasingly important. The world's political management henceforth should encompass North-South-East-West, the entire world, and multilateral institutions should be further strengthened. Special attention should be paid to the neglected North-South relations. The emergence of the mass-consumption society has generated the era of finite resources and environment. The rapidly increasing global population further complicates this issue. Unless the global problems of population, environment, resources, and energy are alleviated, the future for posterity is dubious. The population of the world is increasing by 100 million each year. It was 1.6 billion at the beginning of this century, but it is expected to increase to 6.4 billion at the end of the century, to 8 billion by the year 2020, and to 10 billion by 2050. Resources, energy, environment, and global population are mutually linked; the problem of balancing the rapidly increasing population and the food supply must be addressed. The hope is that the Food and Agriculture Organization will come up with measures to cope with this problem by forecasting the food supply and demand and population. The InterAction Council will hold its 13th session in Tokyo in 1995.

Projected Regional Climate in 2025 Due to Urban Growth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Manyin, Michael; Messen, Dmitry

2005-01-01

By 2025, 60 to 80 percent of the world s population will live in urban environments. Additionally, the following facts published by the United Nations further illustrates how cities will evolve in the future. Urban areas in the developing world are growing very rapidly. The urban growth rate will continue to be particularly rapid in the urban areas of less developed regions, averaging 2.4 per cent per year during 2000-2030, consistent with a doubling time of 29 years. The urbanization process will continue worldwide. The concentration of population in cities is expected to continue so that, by 2030, 84 percent of the inhabitants of more developed countries will be urban dwellers. Urbanization impacts the whole hierarchy of human settlements. In 2000,24.8 per cent of the world population lived in urban settlements with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants and by 2015 that proportion will likely rise to 27.1 per cent.

Development and human resources in the Islamic world: a study of selected countries.

PubMed

Duza, M B

1987-01-01

"The present paper attempts to provide an analytical profile of development and human resources in [12] selected [Islamic] countries." The countries--Bangladesh, Somalia, Pakistan, Indonesia, Egypt, Turkey, Malaysia, Algeria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and United Arab Emirates--vary in income levels from low to high and in population size from 1 million to 159 million. Using data from the World Bank and the Population Council, comparisons are made on the basis of mortality and fertility levels, family size, income, urbanization, labor force size and growth, education, nutrition, and health. Governmental policy changes and future directions are discussed. excerpt

Are wildland watersheds safest and best?

Treesearch

Lawrence S. Hamilton

2007-01-01

The 2003 International Year of Freshwater highlighted the critical current and future scenario, on a global scale, of scarcity of adequate water—the essential need for all living things. About 40 percent of the world’s population currently have moderate to high water stress, and it is estimated that by 2025 about two-thirds of the world will live in areas facing such...

An obsolete dichotomy? Rethinking the rural–urban interface in terms of food security and production in the global south.

PubMed

Lerner, Amy M; Eakin, Hallie

2011-01-01

The global food system is coming under increasing strain in the face of urban population growth. The recent spike in global food prices (2007–08) provoked consumer protests, and raised questions about food sovereignty and how and where food will be produced. Concurrently, for the first time in history the majority of the global population is urban, with the bulk of urban growth occurring in smaller-tiered cities and urban peripheries, or ‘peri-urban’ areas of the developing world. This paper discusses the new emerging spaces that incorporate a mosaic of urban and rural worlds, and reviews the implications of these spaces for livelihoods and food security. We propose a modified livelihoods framework to evaluate the contexts in which food production persists within broader processes of landscape and livelihood transformation in peri-urban locations. Where and how food production persists are central questions for the future of food security in an urbanising world. Our proposed framework provides directions for future research and highlights the role of policy and planning in reconciling food production with urban growth.

How to meet the increasing demands of water, food and energy in the future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Haiyun; Chen, Ji; Sivakumar, Bellie; Peart, Mervyn

2017-04-01

Regarded as a driving force in water, food and energy demands, the world's population has been increasing rapidly since the beginning of the 20th century. According to the medium-growth projection scenario of the United Nations, the world's population will reach 9.5 billion by 2050. In response to the continuously growing population during this century, water, food and energy demands have also been increasing rapidly, and social problems (e.g., water, food, and energy shortages) will be most likely to occur, especially if no proper management strategies are adopted. Then, how to meet the increasing demands of water, food and energy in the future? This study focuses on the sustainable developments of population, water, food, energy and dams, and the significances of this study can be concluded as follows: First, we reveal the close association between dams and social development through analysing the related data for the period 1960-2010, and argue that construction of additional large dams will have to be considered as one of the best available options to meet the increasing water, food and energy demands in the future. We conduct the projections of global water, food and energy consumptions and dam development for the period 2010-2050, and the results show that, compared to 2010, the total water, food and energy consumptions in 2050 will increase by 20%, 34% and 37%, respectively. Moreover, it is projected that additional 4,340 dams will be constructed by 2050 all over the world. Second, we analyse the current situation of global water scarcity based on the related data representing water resources availability (per capita available water resources), dam development (the number of dams), and the level of economic development (per capita gross domestic product). At the global scale, water scarcity exists in more than 70% of the countries around the world, including 43 countries suffering from economic water scarcity and 129 countries suffering from physical water scarcity. At the continental scale, most countries of Africa, the south and west Asia, and the central Europe are suffering from water scarcity. Third, with comprehensive consideration of population growth as the major driving force, water resources availability as the basic supporting factor, and topography as the important constraint, we address the question of future dam development and predict the locations of future large dams around the world. The results show that there will be 1,433 large dams built in the future, mainly in the Tibet Plateau and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in Asia, the East African Plateau and the western part of Africa, the Andes Mountains and the Brazilian Plateau region in South America, the Rocky Mountains in North America, the Alps in Europe, and the Murray-Darling Basin in Oceania. Taking into account of the current situation of global water scarcity, these large dams are most likely to be constructed in countries that have abundant total available water resources or per capita available water resources, no matter whether they are experiencing "economic water scarcity" or have sufficient financial support.

The new face of space - exciting the next generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez, M.; The, W.

This paper will describe the education and public outreach activities being conducted in conjunction with the World Space Congress. The World Space Congress brings together international space leaders and decision makers to share their knowledge and experiences, providing a guiding vision for an improved future. The very people who will populate that future and serve as its leaders are the world's brightest and best young students and young space professionals. Who better than the young people to share in the enthusiasm and knowledge, and participate in the shaping of that future? This World Space Congress intends to engage the young people in educational activities, introduce them to their international counterparts and the idea of collaboration, and provide them with an international experience to remember. This paper provides specifics regarding the planned events for young people. A truly "global" event is being planned for over 2500 students, educators and young professionals from more than 30 countries. Activities and events will target the spectrum of ages including K-12 up to young professionals, as well as the educators whose touch continues to develop the minds and influence the lives of the world's students on a daily basis.

Is there a future for GMOs?

PubMed

Beringer, J E

2000-04-01

Despite strict regulation and a clean safety record, research and development of genetically modified (GM) crops and other organisms has been confronted with tremendous public hostility. Why has this happened, and how can scientists try to guide the debate into more rational channels? The answers may determine the future of GM technology and our ability to provide for a growing world population.

An Era of Global Scarcity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abelson, Philip H.

1973-01-01

Discusses problems facing the world with increasing demands for food, energy, raw materials and goods, and at the same time confronted with a population explosion. Views the future of the United States optimistically when compared to less developed countries. (JR)

bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections

PubMed Central

Ševčíková, Hana; Raftery, Adrian E.

2016-01-01

We describe bayesPop, an R package for producing probabilistic population projections for all countries. This uses probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy generated by Bayesian hierarchical models. It produces a sample from the joint posterior predictive distribution of future age- and sex-specific population counts, fertility rates and mortality rates, as well as future numbers of births and deaths. It provides graphical ways of summarizing this information, including trajectory plots and various kinds of probabilistic population pyramids. An expression language is introduced which allows the user to produce the predictive distribution of a wide variety of derived population quantities, such as the median age or the old age dependency ratio. The package produces aggregated projections for sets of countries, such as UN regions or trading blocs. The methodology has been used by the United Nations to produce their most recent official population projections for all countries, published in the World Population Prospects. PMID:28077933

Bioenergy Tree Plantations in the Tropics: Ecological Implications and Impacts. Commission on Ecology Paper Number 12.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davidson, J.

Uneven economic growth, rapid population increases, and high costs of fossil fuels have caused much of the human race to experience an energy crisis. For the world's poor people the energy requirements consist mainly of firewood. This crisis will be aggravated further as population trends begin to overwhelm natural resources. Future demands for…

Women and kidney disease: reflections on World Kidney Day 2018: Kidney Health and Women's Health: a case for optimizing outcomes for present and future generations.

PubMed

Piccoli, Giorgina B; Alrukhaimi, Mona; Liu, Zhi-Hong; Zakharova, Elena; Levin, Adeera

2018-02-01

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) affects ∼10% of the world's adult population: it is one of the top 20 causes of death worldwide and its impact on patients and their families can be devastating. World Kidney Day and International Women's Day coincide in 2018, thus offering an opportunity to reflect on the importance of women's health, and specifically their kidney health, on the community and the next generations, as well as to strive to be more curious about the unique aspects of kidney disease in women so that we may apply these learnings more broadly. Girls and women, who make up ∼50% of the world's population, are important contributors to society and their families. Gender differences continue to exist around the world in access to education, medical care and participation in clinical studies. Pregnancy is a unique state for women, offering an opportunity for the diagnosis of kidney disease, and also a state where acute and chronic kidney diseases may manifest and that may impact future generations with respect to kidney health. There are various autoimmune and other conditions that are more likely to impact women with profound consequences for childbearing and on the fetus. Women have different complications on dialysis than men and are more likely to be donors than recipients of kidney transplants. In this editorial we focus on what we do and do not know about women, kidney health and kidney disease and what we might learn in the future to improve outcomes worldwide. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Future of Pacific salmon in the face of environmental change: Lessons from one of the world's remaining productive salmon regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schoen, Erik R.; Wipfli, Mark S.; Trammell, Jamie; Rinella, Daniel J.; Floyd, Angelica L.; Grunblatt, Jess; McCarthy, Molly D.; Meyer, Benjamin E.; Morton, John M.; Powell, James E.; Prakash, Anupma; Reimer, Matthew N.; Stuefer, Svetlana L.; Toniolo, Horacio; Wells, Brett M.; Witmer, Frank D. W.

2017-01-01

Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. face serious challenges from climate and landscape change, particularly in the southern portion of their native range. Conversely, climate warming appears to be allowing salmon to expand northwards into the Arctic. Between these geographic extremes, in the Gulf of Alaska region, salmon are at historically high abundances but face an uncertain future due to rapid environmental change. We examined changes in climate, hydrology, land cover, salmon populations, and fisheries over the past 30–70 years in this region. We focused on the Kenai River, which supports world-famous fisheries but where Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha populations have declined, raising concerns about their future resilience. The region is warming and experiencing drier summers and wetter autumns. The landscape is also changing, with melting glaciers, wetland loss, wildfires, and human development. This environmental transformation will likely harm some salmon populations while benefiting others. Lowland salmon streams are especially vulnerable, but retreating glaciers may allow production gains in other streams. Some fishing communities harvest a diverse portfolio of fluctuating resources, whereas others have specialized over time, potentially limiting their resilience. Maintaining diverse habitats and salmon runs may allow ecosystems and fisheries to continue to thrive amidst these changes.

Hubbert's Peak: A Physicist's View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, Richard

2011-11-01

Oil and its by-products, as used in manufacturing, agriculture, and transportation, are the lifeblood of today's 7 billion-person population and our 65T world economy. Despite this importance, estimates of future oil production seem dominated by wishful thinking rather than quantitative analysis. Better studies are needed. In 1956, Dr. M.King Hubbert proposed a theory of resource production and applied it successfully to predict peak U.S. oil production in 1970. Thus, the peak of oil production is referred to as ``Hubbert's Peak.'' Prof. Al Bartlett extended this work in publications and lectures on population and oil. Both Hubbert and Bartlett place peak world oil production at a similar time, essentially now. This paper extends this line of work to include analyses of individual countries, inclusion of multiple Gaussian peaks, and analysis of reserves data. While this is not strictly a predictive theory, we will demonstrate a ``closed'' story connecting production, oil-in-place, and reserves. This gives us the ``most likely'' estimate of future oil availability. Finally, we will comment on synthetic oil and the possibility of carbon-neutral synthetic oil for a sustainable future.

Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan.

PubMed

Chen, Brian K; Jalal, Hawre; Hashimoto, Hideki; Suen, Sze-Chuan; Eggleston, Karen; Hurley, Michael; Schoemaker, Lena; Bhattacharya, Jay

2016-12-01

Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan's future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study estimates a new state-transition microsimulation model - the Japanese Future Elderly Model (FEM) - for Japan. We use the model to forecast disability and health for Japan's future elderly. Our simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan's elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 or more ADLs; and approximately one in 5 will suffer limitations in cognitive or intellectual functioning. Since the majority of the increase in disability arises from the aging of the Japanese population, prevention efforts that reduce age-specific morbidity can help reduce the burden of disability but may have only a limited impact on reducing the overall prevalence of disability among Japanese elderly. While both age and morbidity contribute to a predicted increase in disability burden among elderly Japanese in the future, our simulation results suggest that the impact of population aging exceeds the effect of age-specific morbidity on increasing disability in Japan's future.

Estimation of "needs" and "probable uptake" for HIV/AIDS preventive vaccines based on possible policies and likely acceptance (a WHO/UNAIDS/IAVI study).

PubMed

Esparza, José; Chang, Marie-Louise; Widdus, Roy; Madrid, Yvette; Walker, Neff; Ghys, Peter D

2003-05-16

Once an effective HIV vaccine is discovered, a major challenge will be to ensure its world wide access. A preventive vaccine with low or moderate efficacy (30-50%) could be a valuable prevention tool, especially if targeted to populations at higher risk of HIV infection. High efficacy vaccines (80-90%) could be used in larger segments of the population. Estimated "needs" for future HIV vaccines were based on anticipated policies regarding target populations. Estimated "needs" were adjusted for "accessibility" and "acceptability" in the target populations, to arrive at an estimate of "probable uptake", i.e. courses of vaccine likely to be delivered. With a high efficacy vaccine, global needs are in the order of 690 million full immunization courses, targeting 22 and 69%, respectively, of the 15-49 years old, world wide and in sub-Saharan Africa, respectively. With a low/moderate efficacy vaccine targeted to populations at higher risk of HIV infection, the global needs were estimated to be 260 million full immunization courses, targeting 8 and 41%, respectively, of the world and sub-Saharan African population aged 15-49 years. The current estimate of probable uptake for hypothetical HIV vaccines, using existing health services and delivery systems, was 38% of the estimated need for a high efficacy vaccine, and 19% for a low/moderate efficacy vaccine. Bridging the gap between the estimated needs and the probable uptake for HIV vaccines will represent a major public health challenge for the future. The potential advantages and disadvantages of targeted versus universal vaccination will have to be considered.

Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth

PubMed Central

Abel, Guy J.; Barakat, Bilal; KC, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang

2016-01-01

Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth. PMID:27911797

Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth.

PubMed

Abel, Guy J; Barakat, Bilal; Kc, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang

2016-12-13

Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth.

[United Nations world population prize to Dr. Halfdan Mahler. Acceptance speech].

PubMed

Mahler, H

1995-06-01

The professional achievements of Halfdan Mahler, for which he was awarded the 1995 UN World Population Prize, are summarized, and Dr. Mahler's acceptance speech is presented. Dr. Mahler worked for reproductive health and sustainable development during his six years as secretary general of the IPPF. Under his leadership, the IPPF established world standards for family planning and reproductive health. Dr. Mahler also guided creation and implementation of the long-term IPPF strategic plan, Vision 2000. During his tenure as director general of the World Health Organization from 1973 to 1988, he established the special program of education, development, and training for research in human reproduction. Dr. Mahler's acceptance speech sketched a world of the future in which women control their reproductive lives and enjoy equality with men in work and at home, where adolescents understand and control their sexuality, where all children are desired and cared for, and where hard work brings success even in the poorest population sectors. The challenges of achieving this vision are enormous. The world's population will have doubled to 10 billion, and tensions and inequities will persist. But if the vision is not fulfilled, the present population will triple to 15 billion and competition for every kind of resource will be intolerable. In order to succeed, the rights to free and informed reproductive decision making must be guaranteed for every couple. Harmful practices that violate the right to autonomous reproductive decision making, such as early marriage or female genital mutilation, must be eliminated. Governments must commit themselves to educating and providing resources to women so that they can exercise their rights. Family planning services must be extended to the poor and marginal population sectors that still are denied access, and to adolescents who are at risk of unwanted pregnancy and disease.

Fueling the future with fungal genomics

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Rapidly growing human populations are escalating the demand for energy in our interdependent world. Limited fossil resources and negative ecological impacts of petroleum exploitation dictate the need to explore alternative energy sources. Cellulosic biofuels, the use of plant biomass to produce alco...

Experts Optimistic About Future of World Ecology, Economy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lepkowski, Wil

1984-01-01

Highlights an international conference which examined issues and actions related to environmental problems. Includes recommendations focusing on: population, poverty, environment; urban environment; fresh waters; biological diversity; tropical forests; land resources; energy; nonfuel minerals; and on air, atmosphere, and climate. (JN)

An ecology for cities: A transformational nexus of design and ecology to advance climate change resilience and urban sustainability

Treesearch

Daniel L. Childers; Mary L. Cadenasso; J. Morgan Grove; Victoria Marshall; Brian McGrath; Steward T.A. Pickett

2015-01-01

Cities around the world are facing an ever-increasing variety of challenges that seem to make more sustainable urban futures elusive. Many of these challenges are being driven by, and exacerbated by, increases in urban populations and climate change. Novel solutions are needed today if our cities are to have any hope of more sustainable and resilient futures. Because...

Evidence of Urban Precipitation Anomalies from Satellite and Ground-Based Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Manyin, M.; Negri, Andrew

2004-01-01

Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world's population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world's population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters weather and climate processes. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-weather-climate system is incomplete. Recent literature continues to provide evidence that anomalies in precipitation exist over and downwind of major cities. Current and future research efforts are actively seeking to verify these literature findings and understand potential cause-effect relationships. The novelty of this study is that it utilizes rainfall data from multiple satellite data sources (e.g. TRMM precipitation radar, TRMM-geosynchronous-rain gauge merged product, and SSM/I) and ground-based measurements to identify spatial anomalies and temporal trends in precipitation for cities around the world. Early results will be presented and placed within the context of weather prediction, climate assessment, and societal applications.

Evidence of Urban Precipitation Anomalies from Satellite and Ground-Based Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. M.; Manyin, M.; Negri, A.

2004-01-01

Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world s population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025,60% of the world s population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters weather and climate processes. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-weather-climate system is incomplete. Recent literature continues to provide evidence that anomalies in precipitation exist over and downwind of major cities. Current and future research efforts are actively seeking to verify these literature findings and understand potential cause- effect relationships. The novelty of this study is that it utilizes rainfall data from multiple satellite data sources (e.g. TRMM precipitation radar, TRMM-geosynchronous-rain gauge merged product, and SSM/I) and ground-based measurements to identify spatial anomalies and temporal trends in precipitation for cities around the world. Early results will be presented and placed within the context of weather prediction, climate assessment, and societal applications.

How Cities Make Their Own Weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall

2004-01-01

Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world's population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in d e near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world's population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters weather and climate processes. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-weather-climate system is incomplete. Recent literature continues to provide evidence that anomalies in precipitation exist over and downwind of major cities. Current and future research efforts are actively seeking to verify these literature findings and understand potential cause-effect relationships. The novelty of this study is that it utilizes rainfall data from multiple satellite data sources (e.g. TRMM precipitation radar, TRMM-geosynchronous-rain gauge merged product, and SSM/I) and ground-based measurements to identify spatial anomalies and temporal trends in precipitation for cities around the world. We will also present results from experiments using a regional atmospheric-land surface modeling system. Early results will be presented and placed within the context of weather prediction, climate assessment, and societal applications.

Women and kidney disease: reflections on World Kidney Day 2018.

PubMed

Piccoli, Giorgina B; Alrukhaimi, Mona; Liu, Zhi-Hong; Zakharova, Elena; Levin, Adeera

2018-02-01

Chronic kidney disease affects ∼10% of the world's adult population: it is within the top 20 causes of death worldwide, and its impact on patients and their families can be devastating. World Kidney Day and International Women's Day in 2018 coincide, thus offering an opportunity to reflect on the importance of women's health, and specifically their kidney health, to the community and the next generations, as well as to strive to be more curious about the unique aspects of kidney disease in women, so that we may apply those learnings more broadly. Girls and women, who make up ∼50% of the world's population, are important contributors to society as a whole and to their families. Gender differences continue to exist around the world in access to education, medical care and participation in clinical studies. Pregnancy is a unique state for women, offering an opportunity for diagnosis of kidney disease, and also a state where acute and chronic kidney diseases may manifest, and which may impact future generations with respect to kidney health. There are various autoimmune and other conditions that are more likely to impact women with profound consequences for child bearing, and for the fetus. Women have different complications on dialysis than men, and are more likely to be donors than recipients of kidney transplants. In this editorial, we focus on what we do and do not know about women, kidney health and kidney disease, and what we might learn in the future to improve outcomes worldwide.

Women and Kidney Disease: Reflections on World Kidney Day 2018.

PubMed

Piccoli, Giorgina B; Alrukhaimi, Mona; Liu, Zhi-Hong; Zakharova, Elena; Levin, Adeera

2018-03-01

: Chronic kidney disease aff ects approximately 10% of the world's adult population: it is within the top 20 causes of death worldwide, and its impact on patients and their families can be devastating. World Kidney Day and International Women's Day in 2018 coincide, thus off ering an opportunity to refl ect on the importance of women's health and specifically their kidney health, on the community, and the next generations, as well as to strive to be more curious about the unique aspects of kidney disease in women so that we may apply those learnings more broadly. Girls and women, who make up approximately 50% of the world's population, are important contributors to society and their families. Sex diff erences continue to exist around the world in access to education, medical care, and participation in clinical studies. Pregnancy is a unique state for women, off ering an opportunity for diagnosis of kidney disease, but also a state in which acute and chronic kidney diseases may manifest, and which may impact future generations with respect to kidney health. There are various autoimmune and other conditions that are more likely to impact women with profound consequences for child bearing, and on the fetus. Women have diff erent complications on dialysis than men and are more likely to be donors than recipients of kidney transplants.In this editorial, we focus on what we do and do not know about women, kidney health, and kidney disease, and what we might learn in the future to improve outcomes worldwide.

Toward the 21st Century. A Continent in Crisis: Building a Future for Africa in the 21st Century. A Special Report by the Population Institute to the 101st Congress.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burdett, Hal; And Others

Africa's population is now 630 million, and it is growing faster than any other region in the world. But while Africa's population grows by 3.1 percent annually, the continent's food supply increases by only 1.1 percent per year. Throughout the 1980s more and more African governments have agreed that lasting development is possible only if…

Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan

PubMed Central

Chen, Brian K.; Jalal, Hawre; Hashimoto, Hideki; Suen, Sze-chuan; Eggleston, Karen; Hurley, Michael; Schoemaker, Lena; Bhattacharya, Jay

2016-01-01

Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan’s future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study estimates a new state-transition microsimulation model – the Japanese Future Elderly Model (FEM) – for Japan. We use the model to forecast disability and health for Japan’s future elderly. Our simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan’s elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 or more ADLs; and approximately one in 5 will suffer limitations in cognitive or intellectual functioning. Since the majority of the increase in disability arises from the aging of the Japanese population, prevention efforts that reduce age-specific morbidity can help reduce the burden of disability but may have only a limited impact on reducing the overall prevalence of disability among Japanese elderly. While both age and morbidity contribute to a predicted increase in disability burden among elderly Japanese in the future, our simulation results suggest that the impact of population aging exceeds the effect of age-specific morbidity on increasing disability in Japan’s future. PMID:28580275

Population policy at a crossroads. Will world conference signal new directions for U.S.?

PubMed

Mccarty, L; Sherman, D

1994-06-01

In September 1994 in Cairo, at the third population conference hosted by the United Nations, world leaders will be asked to approve a plan that could stabilize the world population at about 8 billion people by the middle of the next century. Participants will consider interrelated issues: population growth, access to family planning, women's empowerment, sustainable development, poverty, consumption, and the environment. This campaign for a more equitable world is likely to continue after Cairo, with the UN-sponsored social summit in Copenhagen and a women's conference in Beijing slated for next year. The Cairo International Conference on Population and Development will require a new approach to sustainability by balancing environmental protection, economic development, and present and future human needs. The United States has only 5% of the world's population, but it uses 25% of the world's commercial energy, produces more garbage and waste than any other country, and generates 21% of all carbon dioxide emissions, which contribute to global warming. Demands for energy, water and food already cannot be met as natural resources are being exhausted at an alarming rate. The fight over water rights to the Colorado River exemplifies the shrinking natural resource base. In contrast to the Reagan-Bush administration, the Clinton administration restored funding to international family planning agencies and endorsed sustainable development. The US birth rate is back at a 2-decade high, while 60% of pregnancies are unintended. US adolescent pregnancy is the highest among industrialized countries, leading to a cycle of poverty and soaring public costs. Government funding for new contraceptive research has been stagnant because of the pressure of right-wing groups, although finally RU-486 became available for clinical trials. The Cairo conference is likely to recognize the US as the leader in global political issues, however, domestic population and consumption issues have still to be addressed.

Steps toward a globally available malaria vaccine: harnessing the potential of algae for future low cost vaccines.

PubMed

Jones, Carla S; Mayfield, Stephen P

2013-01-01

Malaria is an infectious disease that threatens half of the world's population. This debilitating disease is caused by infection from parasites of the genus Plasmodium. Insecticides, bed nets and drug therapies have lowered the prevalence and death rate associated with malaria but this disease continues to plague many populations around the world. In recent years, many organizations have suggested developing methods for a complete eradication of malaria. The most straightforward and effective method for this potential eradication will be through the development of a low-cost vaccine. To achieve eradication, it will be necessary to develop new vaccine candidates and novel systems for both the production and delivery of these vaccines. Recently, the green algae Chlamydomonas reinhardtii has been used for the recombinant expression of malaria vaccine candidates including the transmission blocking vaccine candidate Pfs48/45. Here, we discuss the potential of this research on the future development of a low-cost malaria vaccine candidate.

China marks World Population Day. Address by Zhang Weiqing: (Excerpts).

PubMed

Zhang, W

1998-08-01

This is a summary of remarks by Minister Zhang Weiqing of China's State Family Planning Commission (SFPC) given on World Population Day in China. The world's population size has increased by 1 billion since 1987, and will reach 6 billion by 1999. As the most populous developing country in the world, China has a greater population pressure and bears a large responsibility regarding stabilization of the world's population and realization of sustainable development. China has a less developed economy and a high percentage of rural and illiterate persons, many of whom are below the poverty line. The interests of both present and future generations must be taken into account with regard to development. In addition, the modernization drive must include strategies for sustainable development and basic national policies of FP and environmental protection in order to achieve a balance among population growth, the economy, resources, and the environment. After 30 years of effort, China has succeeded in solving its population problem by integrating governmental guidance with voluntary public participation in FP. In 1997, the birthrate decreased to 16.57/1000, and the total fertility rate was below replacement level. Changes in attitude toward marriage and childbearing have occurred, as has awareness of voluntary participation in FP. However, some problems have emerged in the implementation of population and FP programs. China will carry out its programs strictly and effectively while developing the national economy. Goals include: 1) stressing the IEC program regarding contraception and regular FP management and services; 2) integrating the FP program with economic development; 3) helping the public to become well off; 4) protecting maternal and child health; 5) improving the status of women; 6) delivering reproductive services; and 7) improving social security measures. Efforts will be made to enable the public to have a more active part in implementing the FP program.

Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions.

PubMed

O'Neill, Brian C; Dalton, Michael; Fuchs, Regina; Jiang, Leiwen; Pachauri, Shonali; Zigova, Katarina

2010-10-12

Substantial changes in population size, age structure, and urbanization are expected in many parts of the world this century. Although such changes can affect energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenario analyses have either left them out or treated them in a fragmentary or overly simplified manner. We carry out a comprehensive assessment of the implications of demographic change for global emissions of carbon dioxide. Using an energy-economic growth model that accounts for a range of demographic dynamics, we show that slowing population growth could provide 16-29% of the emissions reductions suggested to be necessary by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change. We also find that aging and urbanization can substantially influence emissions in particular world regions.

Earth Observations taken by Expedition 30 crewmember

NASA Image and Video Library

2011-11-26

ISS030-E-005199 (26 Nov. 2011) --- Juba, South Sudan ? the world?s newest capital city ? is featured in this image photographed by an Expedition 30 crew member on the International Space Station. Almost one year ago, on July 9, 2011, the Republic of South Sudan became the newest nation in the world, six months after its declaration of independence from Sudan. Juba, a port city (center) on the White Nile, is the capital of the new nation (although the capital will be moved in the future to a more central location) and is one of the fastest growing cities in the world. Juba?s population is uncertain, but is estimated to be roughly 350,000-400,000 having doubled in size since 2005, when a peace agreement was signed ending the civil war in Sudan. Both hopeful immigrants and returning residents have created the population surge. The city hosts the Juba Game Reserve, a protected area of savannah and woodlands that is home to key bird species.

Bipolar disorders in the Arab world: a critical review.

PubMed

Kronfol, Ziad; Zakaria Khalil, Mostafa; Kumar, Pankaj; Suhre, Karsten; Karam, Elie; McInnis, Melvin

2015-05-01

Bipolar disorders are common psychiatric disorders that affect 1-5% of the population worldwide. Major advances in the epidemiology, pathophysiology, and treatment of the disorders have recently occurred. The majority of published reports, however, originate from the Western hemisphere, mostly Europe and the United States. There is a shortage of data from the Arab world on bipolar disorders. In an era of globalization and rapid communication, it is not clear to what extent research findings pertaining to one part of the world are by necessity applicable to other parts. Psychiatric disorders are known to be affected by the culture in which they occur, and knowledge of variations in illness presentation in different ethnic groups is also increasing. However, knowledge of variations affecting Arab populations remains quite limited. This paper provides a critical review of the literature on bipolar affective disorders in the Arab world, pointing to major gaps in knowledge and future opportunities to fill these gaps. © 2015 New York Academy of Sciences.

Will human populations be limited by food?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warren, S. G.

2016-12-01

Historical examples of demographic change, in China, Italy, Nigeria, Utah, the Philippines, and elsewhere, together with simple mathematics and biological principles, show that stabilizing world population before it is limited by food supply will be more difficult than is generally appreciated. United Nations population projections are based on a logical fallacy in that they assume, in spite of the absence of necessary negative feedbacks, that all nations will converge rapidly to replacement-level fertility and thereafter remain at that level. The benign projections that have resulted from this assumption may have hindered efforts to make availability of birth-control a priority in development-aid. Education of women and provision of contraceptives have caused dramatic reductions in fertility, but many groups, including some that are well-educated, maintain high fertility. Small groups with persistent high fertility can grow to supplant low-fertility groups, resulting in continued growth of the total population. The global average fertility rate could rise even if each country's fertility rate is falling. In some low-fertility European countries where deaths exceed births, the population continues to grow because of immigration. Producing more than two offspring is normal for all animal species with stable populations, because their populations are limited by resources or predation rather than birth control. It may therefore be appropriate to view the growth of human population as the result not of excess fertility but rather of excess food. Even if the fertility rate is maintained far in excess of 2, the population cannot grow if food is limiting. Without the agricultural advances of the 20thcentury, world population could not have grown as it did from 1.7 billion in 1900 to 6 billion in 2000. The food supply may be enhanced in the future by genetic engineering and other innovations, but it may be limited by water shortage, climate change, pollution, and energy shortage. The efficiency of agriculture may be diminished by breakdown of social infrastructure. References: S.G. Warren, 2015: Can human populations be stabilized? Earth's Future 3, 82-94, doi:10.1002/2014EF000275 S.G. Warren, 2016: Reply to comment, Earth's Future 4, 18-19, doi:10.1002/2015EF000341

Estimated impact of global population growth on future wilderness extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumont, E.

2012-06-01

Wilderness areas in the world are threatened by the environmental impacts of the growing global human population. This study estimates the impact of birth rate on the future surface area of biodiverse wilderness and on the proportion of this area without major extinctions. The following four drivers are considered: human population growth (1), agricultural efficiency (2), groundwater drawdown by irrigation (3), and non-agricultural space used by humans (buildings, gardens, roads, etc.) (4). This study indicates that the surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land will reduce with about 5.4% between 2012 and 2050. Further, it indicates that the biodiverse land without major extinctions will reduce with about 10.5%. These percentages are based on a commonly used population trajectory which assumes that birth rates across the globe will reduce in a similar way as has occurred in the past in many developed countries. Future birth rate is however very uncertain. Plausible future birth rates lower than the expected rates lead to much smaller reductions in surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land (0.7% as opposed to 5.4%), and a reduction in the biodiverse land without major extinctions of about 5.6% (as opposed to 10.5%). This indicates that birth rate is an important factor influencing the quality and quantity of wilderness remaining in the future.

Agroclimatology and wheat production: Coping with climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cereal production around the world is critical to the food supply for the human population. The changing climate will impact future production and even change the distribution of where cereals are grown. The distribution of crops is determined by a combination of temperature and precipitation becaus...

State Leadership in International Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morehouse, Ward

State education agencies are concerned with strengthening the international aspects of American education to make the educational experience of future generations more relevant to the realities of present and projected populations and economic conditions in both developed and less developed areas of the world. This document discusses the necessity…

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City Under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Vink, Jan K.; Horton, Radley M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A.; Francis, Joe D.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information necessary to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. This study has derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. We adopt a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projects heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporate a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimate future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3331 in the 2080s compared to 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006.These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York, and highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks.

The Implications of Future Food Demand on Global Land Use, Land-Use Change Emissions, and Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Luckow, P.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Eom, J.; Kim, S.; Moss, R.; Patel, P.

2011-12-01

In 2005, cropland accounted for approximately 10% of global land area. The amount of cropland needed in the future depends on a number of factors including global population, dietary preferences, and agricultural crop yields. In this paper, we explore the effect of various assumptions about global food demand and agricultural productivity between now and 2100 on global land use, land-use change emissions, and climate using the GCAM model. GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated, global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. For this analysis, we look at the effect of alternative socioeconomic pathways, crop yield improvement assumptions, and future meat demand scenarios on the demand for agricultural land. The three socioeconomic pathways explore worlds where global population in 2100 ranges from 6 billion people to 14 billion people. The crop yield improvement assumptions range from a world where yields do not improve beyond today's levels to a world with significantly higher crop productivity. The meat demand scenarios range from a vegetarian world to a world where meat is a dominant source of calories in the global diet. For each of these scenarios, we find that sufficient land exists to feed the global economy. However, rates of deforestation, bioenergy potential, land-use change emissions, and climate change differ across the scenarios. Under less favorable scenarios, deforestation rates, land-use change emissions, and the rate of climate change can be adversely affected.

Wildfire air pollution hazard during the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, Wolfgang; Dentener, Frank; Lamarque, Jean-François; Jiang, Leiwen; Arneth, Almut

2017-07-01

Wildfires pose a significant risk to human livelihoods and are a substantial health hazard due to emissions of toxic smoke. Previous studies have shown that climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2, and human demographic dynamics can lead to substantially altered wildfire risk in the future, with fire activity increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. The present study re-examines these results from the perspective of air pollution risk, focussing on emissions of airborne particulate matter (PM2. 5), combining an existing ensemble of simulations using a coupled fire-dynamic vegetation model with current observation-based estimates of wildfire emissions and simulations with a chemical transport model. Currently, wildfire PM2. 5 emissions exceed those from anthropogenic sources in large parts of the world. We further analyse two extreme sets of future wildfire emissions in a socio-economic, demographic climate change context and compare them to anthropogenic emission scenarios reflecting current and ambitious air pollution legislation. In most regions of the world, ambitious reductions of anthropogenic air pollutant emissions have the potential to limit mean annual pollutant PM2. 5 levels to comply with World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines for PM2. 5. Worst-case future wildfire emissions are not likely to interfere with these annual goals, largely due to fire seasonality, as well as a tendency of wildfire sources to be situated in areas of intermediate population density, as opposed to anthropogenic sources that tend to be highest at the highest population densities. However, during the high-fire season, we find many regions where future PM2. 5 pollution levels can reach dangerous levels even for a scenario of aggressive reduction of anthropogenic emissions.

What we know and do not know about women and kidney diseases; Questions unanswered and answers unquestioned: Reflection on World Kidney Day and International Woman’s Day

PubMed Central

Piccoli, G.B.; Al Rukhaimi, M.; Liu, Zhi-Hong; Zakharova, E.; Levin, A.

2018-01-01

Chronic kidney disease affects approximately 10% of the world's adult population: it is within the top 20 causes of death worldwide, and its impact on patients and their families can be devastating. World Kidney Day and International Women's Day in 2018 coincide, thus offering an opportunity to reflect on the importance of women's health and specifically women’s kidney health on the community and the next generations, as well as to strive to be more curious about the unique aspects of kidney disease in women so that we may apply those learnings more broadly. Girls and women, who make up approximately 50% of the world's population, are important contributors to society and their families. Gender differences continue to exist around the world in access to education, medical care, and participation in clinical studies. Pregnancy is a unique state for women, offering an opportunity for diagnosis of kidney disease, but also a state in which acute and chronic kidney diseases may manifest, and which may impact future generations with respect to kidney health. Various autoimmune and other conditions are more likely to impact women, with profound consequences for child bearing and the fetus. Women have different complications on dialysis than men, and are more likely to be donors than recipients of kidney transplants. In this editorial, we focus on what we know and do not know about women, kidney health, and kidney disease, and what we might learn in the future to improve outcomes worldwide. PMID:29791583

What we know and do not know about women and kidney diseases; Questions unanswered and answers unquestioned: Reflection on World Kidney Day and International Woman's Day.

PubMed

Piccoli, G B; Al Rukhaimi, M; Liu, Zhi-Hong; Zakharova, E; Levin, A

2018-01-01

Chronic kidney disease affects approximately 10% of the world's adult population: it is within the top 20 causes of death worldwide, and its impact on patients and their families can be devastating. World Kidney Day and International Women's Day in 2018 coincide, thus offering an opportunity to reflect on the importance of women's health and specifically women's kidney health on the community and the next generations, as well as to strive to be more curious about the unique aspects of kidney disease in women so that we may apply those learnings more broadly. Girls and women, who make up approximately 50% of the world's population, are important contributors to society and their families. Gender differences continue to exist around the world in access to education, medical care, and participation in clinical studies. Pregnancy is a unique state for women, offering an opportunity for diagnosis of kidney disease, but also a state in which acute and chronic kidney diseases may manifest, and which may impact future generations with respect to kidney health. Various autoimmune and other conditions are more likely to impact women, with profound consequences for child bearing and the fetus. Women have different complications on dialysis than men, and are more likely to be donors than recipients of kidney transplants. In this editorial, we focus on what we know and do not know about women, kidney health, and kidney disease, and what we might learn in the future to improve outcomes worldwide.

OUR SOCIETY'S FUTURE--IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ADMINISTRATION OF EXTENSION PROGRAMS.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

GRIFFITH, WILLIAM S.

IN AN ADDRESS THE AUTHOR STATES THAT THE POPULATION EXPLOSION VERSUS WORLD FOOD PRODUCTION CAPACITY, TOGETHER WITH URBAN BLIGHT, POVERTY, AND FUNCTIONAL ILLITERACY, INCREASING COMPETITION FOR TRAINED MANPOWER, AND RELATED IMBALANCES IN AMERICAN EDUCATION CONSTITUTE MAJOR TRENDS AND ACUTE PROBLEMS IN TODAY'S SOCIETY. THE AUTHOR FEELS UNIVERSITIES…

Productivity limits and potentials of the principles of conservation agriculture

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

One of the primary challenges of our time is to feed a growing and more demanding world population with reduced external inputs and minimal environmental impacts, all under more variable and extreme climate conditions of the future. Conservation agriculture (CA) represents a set of three crop manage...

The earth: can it support 5.2 billion people?

PubMed

Sadik, N

1989-12-01

In the last 20 years the world's population has grown by 1.6 billion and has reached 5.2 billion. The gap in population growth between developing and developed areas will increase in the next decade: at present 77% of the earth's population lives in developing countries. A major demographic factor is the future of urban growth where the number of cities over 5 million will increase to 45 by the end of the century. The aging of the population is another demographic factor found worldwide. By the year 2000, 13% of the population will be over 60: 70% of those will be in developed areas. Most developing countries now have a population policy. The total fertility rate has dropped more than 20% in developing countries since 1970. The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has devoted a recent report to the purpose of investing in women. The key to the future of mankind is related directly to the extent that women can make decisions affecting their lives. It is apparent that the effects of resource misuse, environmental damage, and population growth crosses national borders indiscriminately. The key elements to a new approach of development are population, environment, and the role and status of women. In the development of national conservation policies and in the implementing a world strategy, the population environmental relationship will need to be addressed. Since women are directly and indirectly related to the environment by the tasks they perform they are also the most directly effected by environmental degradation. A new approach is needed for balanced development that recognized social, economic, population and environmental relationships. A realistic set of goals for population policy would be to slow the rapid population growth, decrease infant, child and maternal mortality, raise the status of women, and regulate the migration and distribution of population.

Sylvian Fissure Asymmetries in Nonhuman Primates Revisited: A Comparative MRI Study

PubMed Central

Hopkins, William D.; Pilcher, Dawn L.; MacGregor, Leslie

2007-01-01

Magnetic resonance images (MRI) were collected in a sample of 28 apes, 16 Old World monkeys and 8 New World monkeys. The length of the sylvian fissure (SF) and the superior temporal sulcus (STS) was traced in each hemisphere from three regions of the cerebral cortex. These three regions were labeled according to their position on the sagittal plane as lateral, medial and insular. It was hypothesized that the length and asymmetry of these fissures would be dependent on the region of measurement and that a leftward asymmetry in the SF and STS would be more robust in the great ape sample than for the monkeys. The results indicated within the ape sample a population-level leftward asymmetry in the medial and insular regions of the SF. Within the Old and New World monkey samples, the SF was leftward in the medial region at the population level, but not at the insular region. Additionally, the Old World monkeys exhibited a population-level rightward lateral SF and a rightward lateral STS. No other families exhibited population-level asymmetries in the lateral region of the SF or in any region of the STS. These results are consistent with findings reported in apes and, to a lesser extent, monkeys. MRI has excellent potential for comparing neuroanatomy across taxonomic families that will help future investigations. PMID:11326134

What we can and cannot learn from the history of world population.

PubMed

Livi-Bacci, Massimo

2015-01-01

Mankind is passing through an exceptional phase of accelerated population growth that generates anxiety about the future. How many billion people will share the limited resources of our globe a century from now? What will be the consequences of globalization for human behaviour? How will individuals react to emerging new constraints? What will be the consequences of climate change for human society? Obviously enough, history cannot offer operational answers to these crucial questions. Nevertheless, history offers some interesting insights into demographic behaviour experienced in the past that could be replicated in the future, with the variations and adaptations dictated by the changing contexts. In other words, there are constants and structures in human behaviour, and there are robust mechanisms in the functioning of demographic systems that are of some help in preparing us to deal with the future.

Pharmacologic development of male hormonal contraceptive agents.

PubMed

Roth, M Y; Amory, J K

2011-01-01

The world population continues to increase dramatically despite the existence of contraceptive technology. The use of male hormonal contraception may help in preventing un intended pregnancies and managing future population growth. Male hormonal contraception relies on the administration of exogenous hormones to suppress spermatogenesis. Clinical trials have tested several regimens using testosterone, alone or in combination with a progestin. These regimens were shown to be >90% effective in preventing conception and were not associated with serious adverse events.

The Impact of Future World Events on Iranians’ Social Health: A Qualitative Futurology

PubMed Central

DAMARI, Behzad; HAJIAN, Maryam; MINAEE, Farima; RIAZI-ISFAHANI, Sahand

2016-01-01

Background: Social health is a dimension of health affected and interacts with other dimensions. Considering the rate of world changes, foresighting the influence of future events and possible trends on social health could bring about advantageous information for social policy makers. Methods: This is a qualitative study of futurology with cross impact analysis approach. After studying possible trends and events in future, they were categorized in four domains including population, resources, climate changes, and globalization and 12 groups of events; and they were used to design a questionnaire. It was given to experts and their opinions were collected through depth interviews between May 2013 and Sep 2013. Results: Analysis of experts’ opinions reveals that future trends in four main potential domains may have some positive and more negative impacts on Iranians’ social health. Conclusion: The global “resource challenge” is the most important incoming event, considering to the four domains of global events and its final and potential effects will be the increase of inequalities leading to social threat. Since inequalities are considered the most important risk factor of health in the societies, the solution for dispel the impact of world trends on Iranians’ social health is managing the crisis of inequalities which is started with fore sighting and adopting preventive strategies in all four domains. PMID:27648424

Time Frame and Justice Motive: Future Perspective Moderates the Adaptive Function of General Belief in a Just World

PubMed Central

Wu, Michael Shengtao; Sutton, Robbie M.; Yan, Xiaodan; Zhou, Chan; Chen, Yiwen; Zhu, Zhuohong; Han, Buxin

2013-01-01

Background The human ability to envision the future, that is, to take a future perspective (FP), plays a key role in the justice motive and its function in transcending disadvantages and misfortunes. The present research investigated whether individual (Study 1) and situational (Study 2) differences in FP moderated the association of general belief in a just world (GBJW) with psychological resilience. Methodology/Principal Findings We investigated FP, GBJW, and resilience in sample of adolescents (n = 223) and disaster survivors (n = 218) in China. In Study 1, adolescents revealed stronger GBJW than PBJW, and GBJW uniquely predicted resilience in the daily lives of those with high FP (but not those with low FP). In Study 2, natural priming of FP (vs. no FP) facilitated the association of GBJW with resilience after disaster. Conclusions/Significance Supporting predictions, participants endorsed GBJW more strongly than PBJW. Further, GBJW interacted with FP in both studies, such that there was an association between GBJW and resilience at high but not low levels of FP. The results corroborate recent findings suggesting that GBJW may be more psychologically adaptive than PBJW among some populations. They also confirm that focusing on the future is an important aspect of the adaptive function of just-world beliefs. PMID:24312235

Conservation in a World of Six Billion: A Grassroots Action Guide.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hren, Benedict J.

This grassroots action guide features a conservation initiative working to bring the impacts of human population growth, economic development, and natural resource consumption into balance with the limits of nature for the benefit of current and future generations. Contents include information sheets entitled "Six Billion People and Growing,""The…

The Role of the Teacher in an Uncertain World.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shapiro, Leo J.; Rodin, Mimi

This paper presents the results of a series of surveys designed to determine the attitudes of parents of school-aged children and other adults toward schools and their children's future, with a view toward offering encouragement to beginning teachers. Cross sections of the population were sampled nationwide, throughout the state of Illinois, and…

Planning and Designing: The Future in Library Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boaz, Martha

By the year 2,000 numerous changes will make this world very different from today's society. Our economy will be based on education and service related jobs instead of product-production. The population will almost double, and leisure time will increase dramatically due to increased automation. Continuous learning, often outside the formal…

Sustainable Agriculture - Enhancing environmental benefits, food nutritional quality and building crop resilience to abiotic and biotic stresses

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Feeding nutrition-dense food to future world populations presents agriculture with enormous challenges as estimates indicate that crop production must as much as double. Crop production cannot be increased to meet this challenge simply by increasing land acreage or using past agricultural intensific...

Demographic Challenges in America's Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Butz, William P.; And Others

This document examines trends in the United States population since World War II, and projects a scenario of how demographic and economic phenomena may evolve over the next several decades. The report is divided into five sections. Section 1 introduces the volume and discusses generally some of the effects of the nation's transition to zero…

Status and future developments in plant iron for animal and human nutrition

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Plant foods play a critical role in providing dietary iron to humans and other animals. Much of the world's human population subsists on diets that are predominantly vegetarian, while for those who eat limited to excessive amounts of animal food products, most of these foods come from livestock who...

Jobs in the Future. ERIC Digest No. 95.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Imel, Susan

The most significant factors affecting the labor market during the 1980s were the United States' loss of competitiveness in the world marketplace, continued shifts in production from goods to services, changes in the skill requirements of many jobs, and demographic shifts in the population. During the next decade, incompatibility between the type…

Should Nuclear Energy Form Part of the UK's Energy Future?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, Peter

2003-01-01

Energy policies are under review everywhere, as the world tries to meet targets for reducing climate change despite continuing population growth. A major change in energy patterns is needed, with the critical period for transition predictably happening when young people currently at school are in their middle years of their lives. This article…

Long-term assessment of the productivity, profitability, and environmental impact of two mid-Atlantic no-tillage cropping systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Future farming systems need to simultaneously 1) meet the demand for feeding a growing world population, 2) adjust to the developing scarcity of energy, nutrients, and water resources, and 3) mitigate environmental hazards. Development of cropping systems that maximize ecological processes for prov...

The future of the ogallala aquifer: We can measure it, but can we manage it?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ensuring the availability of fresh water resources in sufficient quantity and quality to support human populations and surrounding ecosystems represents one of the grand challenges of our time. The Ogallala Aquifer, one of the largest freshwater aquifers in the world, is a prime example of the chall...

Has the world really survived the population bomb? (Commentary on "how the world survived the population bomb: lessons from 50 years of extraordinary demographic history").

PubMed

Becker, Stan

2013-12-01

In his PAA presidential address and corresponding article in Demography, David Lam (Demography 48:1231-1262, 2011) documented the extraordinary progress of humankind-vis-à-vis poverty alleviation, increased schooling, and reductions in mortality and fertility-since 1960 and noted that he expects further improvements by 2050. However, although Lam briefly covered the problems of global warming and pollution, he did not address several other major environmental problems that are closely related to the rapid human population growth in recent decades and to the progress he described. This commentary highlights some of these problems to provide a more balanced perspective on the situation of the world. Specifically, humans currently are using resources at an unsustainable level. Groundwater depletion and overuse of river water are major problems on multiple continents. Fossil fuel resources and several minerals are being depleted. Other major problems include deforestation, with the annual forest clearing globally estimated to be an area the size of New York State; and species extinction, with rates estimated to be 100 to 1,000 times higher than background rates. Principles of ecological economics are presented that allow an integration of ecology and economic development and better potential for preservation of the world for future generations.

Opening our eyes to Global Health; a philosophy of universal values.

PubMed

Wass, Val

2015-12-01

Globalization is advancing at a pace. As we strive to introduce 'Global Health' into clinical curricula we risk fundamental misunderstandings unless we clearly define what we aim to achieve. Clinicians must be prepared for a life time of uncertainty, change and challenge. The fluctuating world arena will undoubtedly impact on their future work in ways we cannot predict. Population migration, climate change and shifts in cultural dominance are already at play. Global health risks being translated through the eyes of Western ideology as disease-based curricula focused paternalistically on 'helping' the developing world. We must not lack humility to open eyes to learning within the context of increasingly diverse environments and patient populations. Global health is as 'local' as it is 'international'. It should be viewed, I argue, as a philosophy based on the values and expectations found within ourselves and our communities. Responding to globalization lies not only in knowledge but embraces human rights, justice and, most importantly, self-awareness. Knowledge is more easily translated into curriculum objectives. We risk letting future clinicians and their patients down if we ignore the other universal values.

Innovative technology in hearing instruments: matching needs in the developing world.

PubMed

McPherson, Bradley

2011-12-01

Hearing instrument technology research is almost entirely focused on the projected needs of the consumer market in the developed world. However, two thirds of the world's population with hearing impairment live in developing countries and this proportion will increase in future, given present demographic trends. In developing regions, amplification and other hearing health needs may differ from those in industrialized nations, for cultural, health, or economic reasons. World Health Organization estimates indicate that at present only a small percentage of individuals in developing countries who are in need of amplification have access to hearing aid provision. New technologies, such as trainable hearing aids, advanced noise reduction algorithms, feedback reduction circuitry, nano coatings for hearing aid components, and innovative power options, may offer considerable potential benefits, both for individuals with hearing impairment in developing countries and for those who provide hearing health care services in these regions. This article considers the possible supporting role of innovative hearing instrument technologies in the provision of affordable hearing health care services in developing countries and highlights the need for research that considers the requirements of the majority of the world population in need of hearing instrument provision.

Supervised Machine Learning for Population Genetics: A New Paradigm

PubMed Central

Schrider, Daniel R.; Kern, Andrew D.

2018-01-01

As population genomic datasets grow in size, researchers are faced with the daunting task of making sense of a flood of information. To keep pace with this explosion of data, computational methodologies for population genetic inference are rapidly being developed to best utilize genomic sequence data. In this review we discuss a new paradigm that has emerged in computational population genomics: that of supervised machine learning (ML). We review the fundamentals of ML, discuss recent applications of supervised ML to population genetics that outperform competing methods, and describe promising future directions in this area. Ultimately, we argue that supervised ML is an important and underutilized tool that has considerable potential for the world of evolutionary genomics. PMID:29331490

Sustainable medicines and global health care.

PubMed

Cordell, Geoffrey A

2011-07-01

The global population has now exceeded 7 billion, and forests and other resources around the world are being irreversibly depleted for energy, food, shelter, material goods, and drugs to accommodate population needs. For most of the world's population, plants, based on many well-established systems of medicine, in either crude or extract form, represent the foundation of primary health care for the foreseeable future. Contemporary harvesting methods for medicinal plants are severely depleting these critical indigenous resources. However, maintaining and enhancing the availability of quality medicinal agents on a sustainable basis is an unappreciated public health care concept. To accomplish these goals for future health care, and restore the health of the Earth, a profound paradigm shift is necessary: ALL medicinal agents should be regarded as a sustainable commodity, irrespective of their source. Several approaches to enhancing the availability of safe and efficacious plant-based medicinal agents will be presented including integrated strategies to manifest the four pillars (information, botany, chemistry, and biology) for medicinal plant quality control. These integrated initiatives involve information systems, DNA barcoding, metabolomics, biotechnology, nanotechnology, in-field analysis of medicinal plants, and the application of new detection techniques for the development of medicinal plants with enhanced levels of safe and reproducible biological agents. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

The population problem: conceptions and misconceptions.

PubMed

Berelson, B

1971-01-01

Only 1 in about 110 sex acts results in a conception and 1 in 270 in a live birth. Of all conceptions, 40% result in live births, 5% in stillbirths, and 55% never develop. 1/3 of all known conceptions ends in abortion, spontaneous or induced. It appears that the population problem depends on a small fraction of the potential. Misconceptions of the problem are corrected, and it is emphasized that while no social problem facing the U.S. would be easier with a larger population, demographic factors do not cause all of the other problems. Increasing numbers are not as important as the rate of increase (2% annually worldwide). Today's population problem has been caused by a decreased death rate, not an increased birthrate. There are 2 kinds of countries in the world today: those with a high standard of living and low fertility and those with a low standard of living and high fertility. Most of the uninformed women of the world would not choose to have large numbers of children if they had a choice. Population density is not a problem in itself. Experts disagree, but it is improbable that large numbers of people will die of starvation in the next few decades. Environmental deterioration is more the result of modern economic and technological practices than of demographic factors. Efforts at fertility control are not aimed at minorities in this country and elsewhere. The poor are discriminated against in access to family planning services and abortion. Moslems of developing countries have higher fertility rates than Roman Catholics in developed countries. There would be many social costs if the U.S. were to achieve zero population growth in the near future. The population problem has implications for the future quality of life.

Women and kidney disease: Reflections on world kidney day 2018.

PubMed

Piccoli, Giorgina B; Alrukhaimi, Mona; Liu, Zhi-Hong; Zakharova, Elena; Levin, Adeera

2018-03-01

Chronic Kidney Disease affects approximately 10% of the world's adult population: it is within the top 20 causes of death worldwide, and its impact on patients and their families can be devastating. World Kidney Day and International Women's Day in 2018 coincide, thus offering an opportunity to reflect on the importance of women's health and specifically their kidney health, on the community, and the next generations, as well as to strive to be more curious about the unique aspects of kidney disease in women so that we may apply those learnings more broadly. Girls and women, who make up approximately 50% of the world's population, are important contributors to society and their families. Gender differences continue to exist around the world in access to education, medical care and participation in clinical studies. Pregnancy is a unique state for women, offering an opportunity for diagnosis of kidney disease, but also a state where acute and chronic kidney diseases may manifest, and which may impact future generations with respect to kidney health. There are various autoimmune and other conditions that are more likely to impact women with profound consequences for child bearing, and on the foetus. Low birth weight children have increased risk of metabolic diseases, CVD and CKD. Women have different complications on dialysis than men, and are more likely to be donors than recipients of kidney transplants. There is little data to guide best practice and limited research in the area. In this editorial, we focus on what we do and do not know about women, kidney health and kidney disease, and what we might learn in the future to improve outcomes worldwide. © 2018 European Dialysis and Transplant Nurses Association/European Renal Care Association.

Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size

PubMed Central

DeLong, John P.; Burger, Oskar

2015-01-01

The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system. PMID:26091499

Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size.

PubMed

DeLong, John P; Burger, Oskar

2015-01-01

The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system.

Climate and human intervention effects on future fire activity and consequences for air pollution across the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Val Martin, M.; Pierce, J. R.; Heald, C. L.; Li, F.; Lawrence, D. M.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Tilmes, S.; Vitt, F.

2016-12-01

Emissions of aerosols and gases from fires have been shown to adversely affect air quality across the world. Fire activity is strongly related to climate and anthropogenic activities. Current fire projections for the 21st century seem very uncertain, ranging from increasing to declining depending on the climate, land cover change and population growth scenarios used. Here we present an analysis of the changes in future wildfire activity and consequences on air quality, with focus on PM2.5 and surface O3 over regions vulnerable to fire. We use the global Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a process-based fire model to simulate emissions from agriculture, peatland, deforestation and landscape fires for present-day and throughout the current century. We consider two future Representative Concentration Pathways climate scenarios combined with population density changes predicted from Shared Socio-economic Pathways to project climate and demographic effects on fire activity and further consequences for future air quality.

A three-stage colonization model for the peopling of the Americas.

PubMed

Kitchen, Andrew; Miyamoto, Michael M; Mulligan, Connie J

2008-02-13

We evaluate the process by which the Americas were originally colonized and propose a three-stage model that integrates current genetic, archaeological, geological, and paleoecological data. Specifically, we analyze mitochondrial and nuclear genetic data by using complementary coalescent models of demographic history and incorporating non-genetic data to enhance the anthropological relevance of the analysis. Bayesian skyline plots, which provide dynamic representations of population size changes over time, indicate that Amerinds went through two stages of growth approximately 40,000 and approximately 15,000 years ago separated by a long period of population stability. Isolation-with-migration coalescent analyses, which utilize data from sister populations to estimate a divergence date and founder population sizes, suggest an Amerind population expansion starting approximately 15,000 years ago. These results support a model for the peopling of the New World in which Amerind ancestors diverged from the Asian gene pool prior to 40,000 years ago and experienced a gradual population expansion as they moved into Beringia. After a long period of little change in population size in greater Beringia, Amerinds rapidly expanded into the Americas approximately 15,000 years ago either through an interior ice-free corridor or along the coast. This rapid colonization of the New World was achieved by a founder group with an effective population size of approximately 1,000-5,400 individuals. Our model presents a detailed scenario for the timing and scale of the initial migration to the Americas, substantially refines the estimate of New World founders, and provides a unified theory for testing with future datasets and analytic methods.

The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100.

PubMed

Kc, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang

2017-01-01

This paper applies the methods of multi-dimensional mathematical demography to project national populations based on alternative assumptions on future, fertility, mortality, migration and educational transitions that correspond to the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) storylines. In doing so it goes a significant step beyond past population scenarios in the IPCC context which considered only total population size. By differentiating the human population not only by age and sex-as is conventionally done in demographic projections-but also by different levels of educational attainment the most fundamental aspects of human development and social change are being explicitly addressed through modeling the changing composition of populations by these three important individual characteristics. The scenarios have been defined in a collaborative effort of the international Integrated Assessment Modeling community with the medium scenario following that of a major new effort by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OEAW, WU) involving over 550 experts from around the world. As a result, in terms of total world population size the trajectories resulting from the five SSPs stay very close to each other until around 2030 and by the middle of the century already a visible differentiation appears with the range between the highest (SSP3) and the lowest (SSP1) trajectories spanning 1.5 billion. The range opens up much more with the SSP3 reaching 12.6 billion in 2100 and SSP1 falling to 6.9 billion which is lower than today's world population.

Future heat stress arising from climate change on Iran's population health.

PubMed

Modarres, Reza; Ghadami, Mohammad; Naderi, Sohrab; Naderi, Mohammad

2018-04-05

Climate change-induced extreme heat events are becoming a major issue in different parts of the world, especially in developing countries. The assessment of regional and temporal past and future change in heat waves is a crucial task for public health strategies and managements. The historical and future heat index (HI) time series are investigated for temporal change across Iran to study the impact of global warming on public health. The heat index is calculated, and the nonparametric trend assessment is carried out for historical time series (1981-2010). The future change in heat index is also projected for 2020-2049 and 2070-2099 periods. A rise in the historical heat index and extreme caution conditions for summer and spring seasons for major parts of Iran are notable for historical (1981-2010) series in this study. Using different climate change scenarios shows that heat index will exceed the critical threshold for human adaptability in the future in the country. The impact of climate change on heat index risk in Iran is significant in the future. To cope with this crucial situation, developing early warning systems and health care strategies to deal with population growth and remarkable socio-economic features in future is essential.

Future heat stress arising from climate change on Iran's population health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modarres, Reza; Ghadami, Mohammad; Naderi, Sohrab; Naderi, Mohammad

2018-04-01

Climate change-induced extreme heat events are becoming a major issue in different parts of the world, especially in developing countries. The assessment of regional and temporal past and future change in heat waves is a crucial task for public health strategies and managements. The historical and future heat index (HI) time series are investigated for temporal change across Iran to study the impact of global warming on public health. The heat index is calculated, and the nonparametric trend assessment is carried out for historical time series (1981-2010). The future change in heat index is also projected for 2020-2049 and 2070-2099 periods. A rise in the historical heat index and extreme caution conditions for summer and spring seasons for major parts of Iran are notable for historical (1981-2010) series in this study. Using different climate change scenarios shows that heat index will exceed the critical threshold for human adaptability in the future in the country. The impact of climate change on heat index risk in Iran is significant in the future. To cope with this crucial situation, developing early warning systems and health care strategies to deal with population growth and remarkable socio-economic features in future is essential.

Sultanate of Oman: building a dental workforce.

PubMed

Gallagher, Jennifer E; Manickam, Sivakumar; Wilson, Nairn H F

2015-06-22

A medium- and long-term perspective is required in human resource development to ensure that future needs and demands for oral healthcare are met by the most appropriate health professionals. This paper presents a case study of the Sultanate of Oman, one of the Gulf States with a current population of 3.8 million, which has initiated dental training through the creation of a dental college. The objectives of this paper are first to describe trends in the dental workforce in Oman from 1990 to date and compare the dental workforce with its medical counterparts in Oman and with other countries, and second, to consider future dental workforce in the Sultanate. Data were collected from published sources, including the Ministry of Health (MoH), Ministry of Manpower (MoM), and Ministry of National Economy (MoNE)-Sultanate of Oman; the World Health Organization (WHO); World Bank; and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Dentist-to-population ratios were compared nationally, regionally and globally for medicine and dentistry. Dental graduate outputs were mapped onto the local supply. Future trends were examined using population growth predictions, exploring the expected impact in relation to global, regional and European workforce densities. Population growth in Oman is increasing at a rate of over 2% per year. Oman has historically been dependent upon an expatriate dental workforce with only 24% of the dentist workforce Omani in 2010 (n = 160). Subsequent to Oman Dental College (ODC) starting to qualify dental (BDS) graduates in 2012, there is an increase in the annual growth of the dentist workforce. On the assumption that all future dental graduates from ODC have an opportunity to practise in Oman, ODC graduates will boost the annual Omani dentist growth rate starting at 28% per annum from 2012 onwards, building capacity towards global (n = 1711) and regional levels (Gulf State: n = 2167) in the medium term. The output of dental graduates from Oman Dental College is improving the dentist-to-population ratio and helping the Sultanate to realize its aim of developing an Omani-majority dental workforce. The implications for retention of dentists and team training are discussed.

Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baynes, Timothy Malcolm; Kaviti Musango, Josephine

2018-06-01

Urban material resource requirements are significant at the global level and these are expected to expand with future urban population growth. However, there are no global scale studies on the future material consumption of urban areas. This paper provides estimates of global urban domestic material consumption (DMC) in 2050 using three approaches based on: current gross statistics; a regression model; and a transition theoretic logistic model. All methods use UN urban population projections and assume a simple ‘business-as-usual’ scenario wherein historical aggregate trends in income and material flow continue into the future. A collation of data for 152 cities provided a year 2000 world average DMC/capita estimate, 12 tons/person/year (±22%), which we combined with UN population projections to produce a first-order estimation of urban DMC at 2050 of ~73 billion tons/year (±22%). Urban DMC/capita was found to be significantly correlated (R 2 > 0.9) to urban GDP/capita and area per person through a power law relation used to obtain a second estimate of 106 billion tons (±33%) in 2050. The inelastic exponent of the power law indicates a global tendency for relative decoupling of direct urban material consumption with increasing income. These estimates are global and influenced by the current proportion of developed-world cities in the global population of cities (and in our sample data). A third method employed a logistic model of transitions in urban DMC/capita with regional resolution. This method estimated global urban DMC to rise from approximately 40 billion tons/year in 2010 to ~90 billion tons/year in 2050 (modelled range: 66–111 billion tons/year). DMC/capita across different regions was estimated to converge from a range of 5–27 tons/person/year in the year 2000 to around 8–17 tons/person/year in 2050. The urban population does not increase proportionally during this period and thus the global average DMC/capita increases from ~12 to ~14 tons/person/year, challenging resource decoupling targets.

Neem Oil and Crop Protection: From Now to the Future

PubMed Central

Campos, Estefânia V. R.; de Oliveira, Jhones L.; Pascoli, Mônica; de Lima, Renata; Fraceto, Leonardo F.

2016-01-01

A major challenge of agriculture is to increase food production to meet the needs of the growing world population, without damaging the environment. In current agricultural practices, the control of pests is often accomplished by means of the excessive use of agrochemicals, which can result in environmental pollution and the development of resistant pests. In this context, biopesticides can offer a better alternative to synthetic pesticides, enabling safer control of pest populations. However, limitations of biopesticides, including short shelf life, photosensitivity, and volatilization, make it difficult to use them on a large scale. Here, we review the potential use of neem oil in crop protection, considering the gaps and obstacles associated with the development of sustainable agriculture in the not too distant future. PMID:27790224

Neem Oil and Crop Protection: From Now to the Future.

PubMed

Campos, Estefânia V R; de Oliveira, Jhones L; Pascoli, Mônica; de Lima, Renata; Fraceto, Leonardo F

2016-01-01

A major challenge of agriculture is to increase food production to meet the needs of the growing world population, without damaging the environment. In current agricultural practices, the control of pests is often accomplished by means of the excessive use of agrochemicals, which can result in environmental pollution and the development of resistant pests. In this context, biopesticides can offer a better alternative to synthetic pesticides, enabling safer control of pest populations. However, limitations of biopesticides, including short shelf life, photosensitivity, and volatilization, make it difficult to use them on a large scale. Here, we review the potential use of neem oil in crop protection, considering the gaps and obstacles associated with the development of sustainable agriculture in the not too distant future.

The invasive mosquito species Aedes albopictus: current knowledge and future perspectives

PubMed Central

Bonizzoni, Mariangela; Gasperi, Giuliano; Chen, Xioaguang; James, Anthony A.

2013-01-01

One of the most dynamic events in public health is being mediated by the global spread of the invasive mosquito Aedes albopictus. Its rapid expansion and vectorial capacity for various arboviruses affect an increasingly larger proportion of the world population. Responses to the challenges of controlling this vector are expected to be enhanced by an increased knowledge of its biology, ecology, and vector competence. Details of population genetics and structure will allow following, and possibly predicting, the geographical and temporal dynamics of its expansion, and will inform the practical operations of control programs. Experts are coming together now to describe the history, characterize the present circumstances, and collaborate on future efforts to understand and mitigate this emerging public health threat. PMID:23916878

Citrus Genomics

PubMed Central

Talon, Manuel; Gmitter Jr., Fred G.

2008-01-01

Citrus is one of the most widespread fruit crops globally, with great economic and health value. It is among the most difficult plants to improve through traditional breeding approaches. Currently, there is risk of devastation by diseases threatening to limit production and future availability to the human population. As technologies rapidly advance in genomic science, they are quickly adapted to address the biological challenges of the citrus plant system and the world's industries. The historical developments of linkage mapping, markers and breeding, EST projects, physical mapping, an international citrus genome sequencing project, and critical functional analysis are described. Despite the challenges of working with citrus, there has been substantial progress. Citrus researchers engaged in international collaborations provide optimism about future productivity and contributions to the benefit of citrus industries worldwide and to the human population who can rely on future widespread availability of this health-promoting and aesthetically pleasing fruit crop. PMID:18509486

Regulation of water resources for sustaining global future socioeconomic development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, J.; SHI, H.; Sivakumar, B.

2016-12-01

With population projections indicating continued growth during this century, socio-economic problems (e.g., water, food, and energy shortages) will be most likely to occur, especially if proper planning, development, and management strategies are not adopted. In the present study, firstly, we explore the vital role of dams in promoting economic growth through analyzing the relationship between dams and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at both global and national scales. Secondly, we analyze the current situation of global water scarcity based on the data representing water resources availability, dam development, and the level of economic development. Third, with comprehensive consideration of population growth as the major driving force, water resources availability as the basic supporting factor, and topography as the important constraint, this study addresses the question of dam development in the future and predicts the locations of future dams around the world.

The effects of country-level population policy for enhancing adaptation to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunasekara, N. K.; Kazama, S.; Yamazaki, D.; Oki, T.

2013-11-01

The effectiveness of population policy in reducing the combined impacts of population change and climate change on water resources is explored. One no-policy scenario and two scenarios with population policy assumptions are employed in combination with water availability under the SRES scenarios A1b, B1 and A2 for the impact analysis. The population data used are from the World Bank. The river discharges per grid of horizontal resolution 0.5° are obtained from the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) of the University of Tokyo, Japan. Unlike the population scenarios utilized in the SRES emission scenarios and the newest representative concentration pathways, the scenarios employed in this research are based, even after 2050, on country-level rather than regional-level growth assumptions. Our analysis implies that the heterogeneous pattern of population changes across the world is the dominant driver of water stress, irrespective of future greenhouse gas emissions, with highest impacts occurring in the already water-stressed low latitudes. In 2100, Africa, Middle East and parts of Asia are under extreme water stress under all scenarios. The sensitivity analysis reveals that a small reduction in populations over the region could relieve a large number of people from high water stress, while a further increase in population from the assumed levels (SC1) might not increase the number of people under high water stress considerably. Most of the population increase towards 2100 occurs in the already water-stressed lower latitudes. Therefore, population reduction policies are recommended for this region as a method of adaptation to the future water stress conditions. Population reduction policies will facilitate more control over their future development pathways, even if these countries were not able to contribute significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission cuts due to economic constraints. However, for the European region, the population living in water-stressed regions is almost 20 times lower than that in the lower latitudes. For countries with high population momentum, the population policy scenario with fertility-reduction assumptions gained a maximum of 6.1 times the water availability in Niger and 5.3 times that in Uganda compared with the no-policy scenario. Most of these countries are in sub-Saharan Africa. These countries represent 24.5% of the global population in the no-policy scenario, and the scenario with fertility-reduction assumptions reduces it to 8.7% by 2100. This scenario is also effective in reducing the area under extreme water stress in these countries. However, the policy scenario with assumptions of population stabilization at the replacement fertility rate increases the water stress in high-latitude countries. Nevertheless, the impact is low due to the high per capita water availability in the region. This research is expected to widen the understanding of the combined impacts of climate change in the future and of the strategies needed to enhance the space for adaptation.

The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China.

PubMed

Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Huang, Yao; Shen, Zehao; Peng, Shushi; Li, Junsheng; Zhou, Liping; Liu, Hongyan; Ma, Yuecun; Ding, Yihui; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Liu, Chunzhen; Tan, Kun; Yu, Yongqiang; Zhang, Tianyi; Fang, Jingyun

2010-09-02

China is the world's most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, much research has focused on China's influence on climate change but somewhat less has been written about the impact of climate change on China. China experienced explosive economic growth in recent decades, but with only 7% of the world's arable land available to feed 22% of the world's population, China's economy may be vulnerable to climate change itself. We find, however, that notwithstanding the clear warming that has occurred in China in recent decades, current understanding does not allow a clear assessment of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on China's water resources and agriculture and therefore China's ability to feed its people. To reach a more definitive conclusion, future work must improve regional climate simulations-especially of precipitation-and develop a better understanding of the managed and unmanaged responses of crops to changes in climate, diseases, pests and atmospheric constituents.

[Dental practitioners in Israel: past, present and future].

PubMed

Mann, J; Vered, Y; Zini, A

2010-04-01

Since 1980 various studies have been published in Israel dealing with dental manpower issues, utilizing several methods such as manpower to population ratio. The dental literature pointed out that dentistry in Israel has an over supply of dentists and that manpower to population ratio is one of the highest in the world 1:770. All studies were based on the information provided by the Ministry of Health which showed that Israel has over 9500 dentists. The Israel Central Bureau of Statistics figures showed a much smaller number which was 5700 active dentists. This enormous gap in between two sources of information, following strict examination of the data revealed that the Bureau of Statistics information is reliable and hence, the real manpower to population ratio in Israel in 2008 was 1:1271. Prediction of manpower is extremely important and the base line information is crucial for future evaluations.

Life - Past, Present and Future. Environmental Education Curriculum. Revised.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Topeka Public Schools, KS.

This unit attempts to interrelate the traditional biological science studies such as food webs, population changes and ecological succession to form a coherent picture of our world today, the factors that created it and the forces that continue to change it. Designed for use in the secondary schools, it is built around nine films and has seven…

Teaching for a Brighter More Sustainable Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McKeown, Rosalyn

2013-01-01

Leaders and citizens of the next generation will have to do more with less. There will be fewer natural resources (e.g., less timber and less biodiversity), and the world's population will be greater. As a result, education must equip the students of today with the skills they need to cope with change, uncertainty, and complexity. This type…

Effect of Herbicides on Soil Productivity and Water Quality

Treesearch

Daniel G. Neary; Jerry L. Michael

1989-01-01

The southern yellow pine and hardwood forests of the South constitute some of the most intensively managed forest ecosystems in the world (Stone 1983; Kellison and Gingrich 1982). These forests also occur in a region with one of the fastest growing human populations in the United States. Furthermore, future resource demands in the South will certainly intensify...

Big Feet: Assessing the Current and Future Impact of Population Size on a Country's Ecological Footprint

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogg, R. S.; Takaro, T.; Miller, C.; Hogg, E.; Anema, A.; Gislason, M.; Parkes, M.

2015-12-01

Background: Ecological footprints assess the land and water a population needs to procure its resources and handle its waste. Measures derived from these footprints look at a population's ecological overshoot rather than weighting the population to its footprint. The aim of this study was to examine the latter approach by determining what the current and future weighted world population, by income gradient, would be if everyone lived within the boundary of 1.8 hectares per person. Methods: Country-specific ecological footprints and populations for 2007 were obtained from the Global Footprint Network (www.footprintnetwork.org); and projected populations were collected from US Census Bureau (www.census.gov). Footprint growth to 2050 was based on a business as usual approach developed by Kitzes et al. in Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B (2008). Weighted population estimates were derived by multiplying actual population by the ratio of the country's footprint to overall boundary of 1.8 hectares per person. Results: The weighted global population increased by 2.4 billion people (37%) in 2007 based on our adjustment. High and middle-income country populations increased, by 242% and 10%, respectively, while low-income country populations decreased by 33%. The weighed global population in 2050 increased by 10.1 billion with the majority of this growth occurring in high-income countries -- 437% versus 67% and 9% respectively for medium and low-income countries. Conclusions: Our study showed that current and future global weighted demographic and ecological impact would be felt mainly in high-income countries even though actual population growth would occur mainly in low and middle-income countries.

Large-scale water projects in the developing world: Revisiting the past and looking to the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivakumar, Bellie; Chen, Ji

2014-05-01

During the past half a century or so, the developing world has been witnessing a significant increase in freshwater demands due to a combination of factors, including population growth, increased food demand, improved living standards, and water quality degradation. Since there exists significant variability in rainfall and river flow in both space and time, large-scale storage and distribution of water has become a key means to meet these increasing demands. In this regard, large dams and water transfer schemes (including river-linking schemes and virtual water trades) have been playing a key role. While the benefits of such large-scale projects in supplying water for domestic, irrigation, industrial, hydropower, recreational, and other uses both in the countries of their development and in other countries are undeniable, concerns on their negative impacts, such as high initial costs and damages to our ecosystems (e.g. river environment and species) and socio-economic fabric (e.g. relocation and socio-economic changes of affected people) have also been increasing in recent years. These have led to serious debates on the role of large-scale water projects in the developing world and on their future, but the often one-sided nature of such debates have inevitably failed to yield fruitful outcomes thus far. The present study aims to offer a far more balanced perspective on this issue. First, it recognizes and emphasizes the need for still additional large-scale water structures in the developing world in the future, due to the continuing increase in water demands, inefficiency in water use (especially in the agricultural sector), and absence of equivalent and reliable alternatives. Next, it reviews a few important success and failure stories of large-scale water projects in the developing world (and in the developed world), in an effort to arrive at a balanced view on the future role of such projects. Then, it discusses some major challenges in future water planning and management, with proper consideration to potential technological developments and new options. Finally, it highlights the urgent need for a broader framework that integrates the physical science-related aspects ("hard sciences") and the human science-related aspects ("soft sciences").

Anthropometric measurements in Iranian men.

PubMed

Gharehdaghi, Jaber; Baazm, Maryam; Ghadipasha, Masoud; Solhi, Sadra; Toutounchian, Farhoud

2018-01-01

There is inevitable need for data regarding anthropometric measurements of each community's population. These anthropometric data have various applications, including health assessment, industrial designing, plastic & orthopedic surgery, nutritional studies, anatomical studies and forensic medicine investigations. Anthropometric parameters vary from race to race throughout the world, hence providing an anthropometric profile model of residents of different geographic regions seems to be necessary. To our knowledge, there is no report of bone parameters of the Iranian population. The present study was carried out to provide data on anthropomorphic bone parameters of the Iranian population, as a basis for future relevant studies. We calculated most of the known anthropometric parameters including skull, mandible, clavicle, scapula, humerus, radius, ulna, sacrum, hip, femur, tibia and fibula of 225 male corpses during a period of 2 years (2014-2016). Data expression was done as mean ± standard deviation. The results consist the first documented report on anthropometric bone measurement profile of Iranian male population, that can be considered a valuable source of data for future research on Iranian population in this regard. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Water footprint scenarios for 2050: a global analysis.

PubMed

Ercin, A Ertug; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

2014-03-01

This study develops water footprint scenarios for 2050 based on a number of drivers of change: population growth, economic growth, production/trade pattern, consumption pattern (dietary change, bioenergy use) and technological development. The objective the study is to understand the changes in the water footprint (WF) of production and consumption for possible futures by region and to elaborate the main drivers of this change. In addition, we assess virtual water flows between the regions of the world to show dependencies of regions on water resources in other regions under different possible futures. We constructed four scenarios, along two axes, representing two key dimensions of uncertainty: globalization versus regional selfsufficiency, and economy-driven development versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows how different drivers will change the level of water consumption and pollution globally in 2050. The presented scenarios can form a basis for a further assessment of how humanity can mitigate future freshwater scarcity. We showed with this study that reducing humanity's water footprint to sustainable levels is possible even with increasing populations, provided that consumption patterns change. This study can help to guide corrective policies at both national and international levels, and to set priorities for the years ahead in order to achieve sustainable and equitable use of the world's fresh water resources. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Health consequences of Chernobyl: the New York Academy of Sciences publishes an antidote to the nuclear establishment's pseudo-science.

PubMed

Katz, Alison Rosamund

2010-01-01

In February 2010, the New York Academy of Sciences published the most complete and up-to-date collection of evidence, from independent, scientific sources all over the world, on the health and environmental consequences of the Chernobyl accident. For 24 years, through a high-level, internationally coordinated cover-up of the world's most serious industrial accident, the nuclear lobby has deprived the world of a unique and critically important source of scientific information. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), mouthpiece of the nuclear establishment, has coordinated the cover-up through the dissemination and imposition of crude pseudo-science. Regrettably, the World Health Organization, a U.N. agency on which the world's people rely for guidance, is subordinate to the IAEA in matters of radiation and health, has participated in the cover-up, and stands accused of non-assistance to populations in danger. The new book on Chernobyl makes available huge amounts of evidence from independent studies undertaken in the affected countries, unique and valuable data that have been ignored by the international health establishment. This comprehensive account of the full dimensions of the catastrophe reveals the shameful inadequacy of current international assistance to the affected populations. It also demonstrates, once more, that future energy options cannot include nuclear power.

The path towards sustainable energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Steven; Cui, Yi; Liu, Nian

2017-01-01

Civilization continues to be transformed by our ability to harness energy beyond human and animal power. A series of industrial and agricultural revolutions have allowed an increasing fraction of the world population to heat and light their homes, fertilize and irrigate their crops, connect to one another and travel around the world. All of this progress is fuelled by our ability to find, extract and use energy with ever increasing dexterity. Research in materials science is contributing to progress towards a sustainable future based on clean energy generation, transmission and distribution, the storage of electrical and chemical energy, energy efficiency, and better energy management systems.

The path towards sustainable energy.

PubMed

Chu, Steven; Cui, Yi; Liu, Nian

2016-12-20

Civilization continues to be transformed by our ability to harness energy beyond human and animal power. A series of industrial and agricultural revolutions have allowed an increasing fraction of the world population to heat and light their homes, fertilize and irrigate their crops, connect to one another and travel around the world. All of this progress is fuelled by our ability to find, extract and use energy with ever increasing dexterity. Research in materials science is contributing to progress towards a sustainable future based on clean energy generation, transmission and distribution, the storage of electrical and chemical energy, energy efficiency, and better energy management systems.

The Global Inventor Gap: Distribution and Equality of World-Wide Inventive Effort, 1990–2010

PubMed Central

Toivanen, Hannes; Suominen, Arho

2015-01-01

Applying distance-to-frontier analysis, we have used 2.9 million patents and population data to assess whether the relative capacity of world countries and major regions to create new knowledge and technology has become globally more equal or less equal between 1990 and 2010. We show with the Gini coefficient that the global distribution of inventors has become more equal between major countries and regions. However, this trend has been largely due to the improved performance of only two major countries, China and India. The worst performing regions, totalling a population of almost 2 billion, are actually falling behind. Our results suggest that substantial parts of the global population have fallen further behind countries at the global frontier in their ability to create new knowledge and inventions, and that the catch-up among the least developed and middle-income countries is highly uneven, prompting questions about the nature and future of the global knowledge economy. PMID:25849202

Collecting behavioural data using the world wide web: considerations for researchers

PubMed Central

Rhodes, S; Bowie, D; Hergenrather, K

2003-01-01

Objective: To identify and describe advantages, challenges, and ethical considerations of web based behavioural data collection. Methods: This discussion is based on the authors' experiences in survey development and study design, respondent recruitment, and internet research, and on the experiences of others as found in the literature. Results: The advantages of using the world wide web to collect behavioural data include rapid access to numerous potential respondents and previously hidden populations, respondent openness and full participation, opportunities for student research, and reduced research costs. Challenges identified include issues related to sampling and sample representativeness, competition for the attention of respondents, and potential limitations resulting from the much cited "digital divide", literacy, and disability. Ethical considerations include anonymity and privacy, providing and substantiating informed consent, and potential risks of malfeasance. Conclusions: Computer mediated communications, including electronic mail, the world wide web, and interactive programs will play an ever increasing part in the future of behavioural science research. Justifiable concerns regarding the use of the world wide web in research exist, but as access to, and use of, the internet becomes more widely and representatively distributed globally, the world wide web will become more applicable. In fact, the world wide web may be the only research tool able to reach some previously hidden population subgroups. Furthermore, many of the criticisms of online data collection are common to other survey research methodologies. PMID:12490652

Collecting behavioural data using the world wide web: considerations for researchers.

PubMed

Rhodes, S D; Bowie, D A; Hergenrather, K C

2003-01-01

To identify and describe advantages, challenges, and ethical considerations of web based behavioural data collection. This discussion is based on the authors' experiences in survey development and study design, respondent recruitment, and internet research, and on the experiences of others as found in the literature. The advantages of using the world wide web to collect behavioural data include rapid access to numerous potential respondents and previously hidden populations, respondent openness and full participation, opportunities for student research, and reduced research costs. Challenges identified include issues related to sampling and sample representativeness, competition for the attention of respondents, and potential limitations resulting from the much cited "digital divide", literacy, and disability. Ethical considerations include anonymity and privacy, providing and substantiating informed consent, and potential risks of malfeasance. Computer mediated communications, including electronic mail, the world wide web, and interactive programs will play an ever increasing part in the future of behavioural science research. Justifiable concerns regarding the use of the world wide web in research exist, but as access to, and use of, the internet becomes more widely and representatively distributed globally, the world wide web will become more applicable. In fact, the world wide web may be the only research tool able to reach some previously hidden population subgroups. Furthermore, many of the criticisms of online data collection are common to other survey research methodologies.

A Two Population Model for the Stock Market Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skiadas, Christos H.

The development of the last year disaster in the Stock Markets all over the world gave rise to reconsidering the previous models used. It is clear that, even in an organized international or national context, large fluctuations and sudden losses may occur. This paper explores a two populations' model. The populations are conflicting into the same environment (a Stock Market) by following the main rules present, that is mutual interaction between adopters, potential adopters, word-of-mouth communication and of course by taking into consideration the innovation diffusion process. The proposed model has special futures expressed by third order terms providing characteristic stationary points.

Nuclear electric generation: Political, social, and economic cost and benefit to Indonesia. Master`s thesis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waliyo

Indonesia, the largest archipelagic country with a population the fourth biggest in the world, is now in the process of development. It needs a large quantity of energy electricity to meet the industrial and household demands. The currently available generating capacity is not sufficient to meet the electricity demand for the rapidly growing industries and the increasing population. In order to meet the future demand for electricity, new generating capacity is required to be added to the current capacity. Nuclear electricity generation is one possible alternative to supplement Indonesia`s future demand of electricity. This thesis investigates the possibility of developingmore » nuclear electricity generation in Indonesia, considering the political, social, and economic cost and benefit to Indonesia.« less

A Three-Stage Colonization Model for the Peopling of the Americas

PubMed Central

Kitchen, Andrew; Miyamoto, Michael M.; Mulligan, Connie J.

2008-01-01

Background We evaluate the process by which the Americas were originally colonized and propose a three-stage model that integrates current genetic, archaeological, geological, and paleoecological data. Specifically, we analyze mitochondrial and nuclear genetic data by using complementary coalescent models of demographic history and incorporating non-genetic data to enhance the anthropological relevance of the analysis. Methodology/Findings Bayesian skyline plots, which provide dynamic representations of population size changes over time, indicate that Amerinds went through two stages of growth ≈40,000 and ≈15,000 years ago separated by a long period of population stability. Isolation-with-migration coalescent analyses, which utilize data from sister populations to estimate a divergence date and founder population sizes, suggest an Amerind population expansion starting ≈15,000 years ago. Conclusions/Significance These results support a model for the peopling of the New World in which Amerind ancestors diverged from the Asian gene pool prior to 40,000 years ago and experienced a gradual population expansion as they moved into Beringia. After a long period of little change in population size in greater Beringia, Amerinds rapidly expanded into the Americas ≈15,000 years ago either through an interior ice-free corridor or along the coast. This rapid colonization of the New World was achieved by a founder group with an effective population size of ≈1,000–5,400 individuals. Our model presents a detailed scenario for the timing and scale of the initial migration to the Americas, substantially refines the estimate of New World founders, and provides a unified theory for testing with future datasets and analytic methods. PMID:18270583

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

PubMed Central

Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Vink, Jan K.; Horton, Radley M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A.; Francis, Joe D.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

Background: High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. Objectives: The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. Methods: We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature–mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results: The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006. Conclusions: These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks. Citation: Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. 2017. Towards more comprehensive projections of urban heat-related mortality: estimates for New York City under multiple population, adaptation, and climate scenarios. Environ Health Perspect 125:47–55; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP166 PMID:27337737

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios.

PubMed

Petkova, Elisaveta P; Vink, Jan K; Horton, Radley M; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A; Francis, Joe D; Kinney, Patrick L

2017-01-01

High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006. These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks. Citation: Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. 2017. Towards more comprehensive projections of urban heat-related mortality: estimates for New York City under multiple population, adaptation, and climate scenarios. Environ Health Perspect 125:47-55; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP166.

Urbanisation and infectious diseases in a globalised world.

PubMed

Alirol, Emilie; Getaz, Laurent; Stoll, Beat; Chappuis, François; Loutan, Louis

2011-02-01

The world is becoming urban. The UN predicts that the world's urban population will almost double from 3·3 billion in 2007 to 6·3 billion in 2050. Most of this increase will be in developing countries. Exponential urban growth is having a profound effect on global health. Because of international travel and migration, cities are becoming important hubs for the transmission of infectious diseases, as shown by recent pandemics. Physicians in urban environments in developing and developed countries need to be aware of the changes in infectious diseases associated with urbanisation. Furthermore, health should be a major consideration in town planning to ensure urbanisation works to reduce the burden of infectious diseases in the future. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Public health: champion of food and nutritional security in an insecure world.

PubMed

2009-10-01

When it comes to nutrition, like most middle-income countries, Cuba is equally haunted by shadows of an undernourished past and forebodings of an overweight future. This dilemma is the country-level expression of a tough global reality: the world's empty stomachs and empty calories result from the same skewed constellation of international economic and trade policies. Speaking of the current and unprecedented food, fuel, climate and financial crises, World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Margaret Chan comments: "…they are the result of massive failures in the international systems that govern the way nations and their populations interact. In short: they are the result of bad policies…(in which) economic interests trump health concerns time and time again."[1].

One-Third of the Globe: The Future of Higher Education in China and India

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Altbach, Philip G.

2009-01-01

China and India together account for almost 25% of the world's postsecondary student population. Most of the enrolment growth in the coming several decades will be in developing countries, and China and India will contribute a significant proportion of that expansion, since China currently educates only about 20% and India 10% of the age cohort.…

"Now, Year Ones, This Is Your Life!" Preparing the Present Generation of Students for a World of Shrinking Distances.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beare, Hedley

2001-01-01

Forecasts for the future are made against the backdrop of population growth, environmental change, information technology, and globalization. Schools and teachers as we know them will change radically, perhaps become obsolete, as computers and the Internet enable access to information from anywhere, any time. Learning will become a life-long,…

Lost Identity: The Assimilation of Digital Libraries into the Web

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lagoze, Carl Jay

2010-01-01

The idea of Digital Libraries emerged in the early 1990s from a vision of a "library of the future", without walls and open 24 hours a day. These digital libraries would leverage the substantial investments of federal funding in the Internet and advanced computing for the benefit of the entire population. The world's knowledge would be a key press…

Prepare and Inspire: K-12 Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) Education for America's Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Education Digest: Essential Readings Condensed for Quick Review, 2010

2010-01-01

The success of the United States in the 21st century will depend on the ideas and skills of its population. These have always been the nation's most important assets. As the world becomes increasingly technological, the value of these national assets will be determined by the effectiveness of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics…

Special Report: Haiti. Hope for the Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-06-01

visitors. Haiti offers beautiful white beaches, an exotic culture, outstanding artists and musicians, and French cuisine . According to recent press...divided between a small, well-educated, affluent, French -speaking elite and a large, uneducated, Creole-speaking, impoverished peasant population...indigo, and hides made Haiti the richest French colony in the New World. Haitian society was composed of thirty thousand Europe- ans, an equal number

Letting Girls Learn: Promising Approaches in Primary and Secondary Education. World Bank Discussion Papers, No. 133.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herz, Barbara; And Others

The economic and social returns in educating women are substantial. By educating its women, a country can reduce poverty, improper productivity, ease population pressure, and offer its children a better future. This paper analyzes the benefits from female education (who gains and in what ways) and the constraints (direct and opportunity costs,…

The Future of Urbanization: Facing the Ecological and Economic Constraints. Worldwatch Paper 77.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Lester R.; Jacobson, Jodi L.

Aside from the growth of world population itself, urbanization is the dominant demographic trend of the late twentieth century. The number of people living in cities increased from six hundred million in 1950 to over two billion in 1986. If this growth continues unabated, more than half of humanity will reside in urban areas shortly after the turn…

AFLP-Based Analysis of Genetic Diversity, Population Structure, and Relationships with Agronomic Traits in Rice Germplasm from North Region of Iran and World Core Germplasm Set.

PubMed

Sorkheh, Karim; Masaeli, Mohammad; Chaleshtori, Maryam Hosseini; Adugna, Asfaw; Ercisli, Sezai

2016-04-01

Analysis of the genetic diversity and population structure of crops is very important for use in breeding programs and for genetic resources conservation. We analyzed the genetic diversity and population structure of 47 rice genotypes from diverse origins using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers and morphological characters. The 47 genotypes, which were composed of four populations: Iranian native varieties, Iranian improved varieties, International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) rice varieties, and world rice collections, were analyzed using ten primer combinations. A total of 221 scorable bands were produced with an average of 22.1 alleles per pair of primers, of which 120 (54.30%) were polymorphic. The polymorphism information content (PIC) values varied from 0.32 to 0.41 with an average of 0.35. The high percentage of polymorphic bands (%PB) was found to be 64.71 and the resolving power (R p) collections were 63.36. UPGMA clustering based on numerical data from AFLP patterns clustered all 47 genotypes into three large groups. The genetic similarity between individuals ranged from 0.54 to 0.94 with an average of 0.74. Population genetic tree showed that Iranian native cultivars formed far distant cluster from the other populations, which may indicate that these varieties had minimal genetic change over time. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) revealed that the largest proportion of the variation (84%) to be within populations showing the inbreeding nature of rice. Therefore, Iranian native varieties (landraces) may have unique genes, which can be used for future breeding programs and there is a need to conserve this unique diversity. Furthermore, crossing of Iranian genotypes with the genetically distant genotypes in the other three populations may result in useful combinations, which can be used as varieties and/or lines for future rice breeding programs.

Observing Human-induced Linkages between Urbanization and Earth's Climate System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Jin, Menglin

2004-01-01

Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world s population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world s population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters atmospheric composition; impacts components of the water cycle; and modifies the carbon cycle and ecosystems. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-climate system is incomplete. Better understanding of how the Earth s atmosphere-ocean-land-biosphere components interact as a coupled system and the influence of the urban environment on this climate system is critical. The goal of the 2003 AGU Union session Human-induced climate variations on urban areas: From observations to modeling was to bring together scientists from interdisciplinary backgrounds to discuss the data, scientific approaches and recent results on observing and modeling components of the urban environment with the intent of sampling our current stand and discussing future direction on this topic. Herein, a summary and discussion of the observations component of the session are presented.

Moderating diets to feed the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Kyle F.; D'Odorico, Paolo; Rulli, Maria Cristina

2014-10-01

Population growth, dietary changes, and increasing biofuel use are placing unprecedented pressure on the global food system. While this demand likely cannot be met by expanding agricultural lands, much of the world's cropland can attain higher crop yields. Therefore, it is important to examine whether increasing crop productivity to the maximum attainable yield (i.e., yield gap closure) alone can substantially improve food security at global and national scales. Here we show that closing yield gaps through conventional technological development (i.e., fertilizers and irrigation) can potentially meet future global demand if diets are moderated and crop-based biofuel production is limited. In particular, we find that increases in dietary demand will be largely to blame should crop production fall short of demand. In converting projected diets to a globally adequate diet (3000 kcal/cap/d; 20% animal kcal) under current agrofuel use, we find that 1.8-2.6 billion additional people can be fed in 2030 and 2.1-3.1 billion additional people in 2050, depending on the extent to which yields can improve in those periods. Therefore, the simple combination of yield gap closure and moderating diets offers promise for feeding the world's population but only if long-term sustainability is the focus.

An economic analysis of space solar power and its cost competitiveness as a supplemental source of energy for space and ground markets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marzwell, N. I.

2002-01-01

Economic Growth has been historically associated with nations that first made use of each new energy source. There is no doubt that Solar Power Satellites is high as a potential energy system for the future. A conceptual cost model of the economics value of space solar power (SSP) as a source of complementary power for in-space and ground applications will be discussed. Several financial analysis will be offered based on present and new technological innovations that may compete with or be complementary to present energy market suppliers depending on various institutional arrangements for government and the private sector in a Global Economy. Any of the systems based on fossil fuels such as coal, oil, natural gas, and synthetic fuels share the problem of being finite resources and are subject to ever-increasing cost as they grow ever more scarce with drastic increase in world population. Increasing world population and requirements from emerging underdeveloped countries will also increase overall demand. This paper would compare the future value of SSP with that of other terrestrial renewable energy in distinct geographic markets within the US, in developing countries, Europe, Asia, and Eastern Europe.

Physiological effects on fishes in a high-CO2 world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishimatsu, Atsushi; Hayashi, Masahiro; Lee, Kyoung-Seon; Kikkawa, Takashi; Kita, Jun

2005-09-01

Fish are important members of both freshwater and marine ecosystems and constitute a major protein source in many countries. Thus potential reduction of fish resources by high-CO2 conditions due to the diffusion of atmospheric CO2 into the surface waters or direct CO2 injection into the deep sea can be considered as another potential threat to the future world population. Fish, and other water-breathing animals, are more susceptible to a rise in environmental CO2 than terrestrial animals because the difference in CO2 partial pressure (PCO2) of the body fluid of water-breathing animals and ambient medium is much smaller (only a few torr (1 torr = 0.1333 kPa = 1316 μatm)) than in terrestrial animals (typically 30-40 torr). A survey of the literature revealed that hypercapnia acutely affects vital physiological functions such as respiration, circulation, and metabolism, and changes in these functions are likely to reduce growth rate and population size through reproduction failure and change the distribution pattern due to avoidance of high-CO2 waters or reduced swimming activities. This paper reviews the acute and chronic effects of CO2 on fish physiology and tries to clarify necessary areas of future research.

Healthcare and healthcare systems: inspiring progress and future prospects.

PubMed

Durrani, Hammad

2016-01-01

Healthcare systems globally have experienced intensive changes, reforms, developments, and improvement over the past 30 years. Multiple actors (governmental and non-governmental) and countries have played their part in the reformation of the global healthcare system. New opportunities are presenting themselves while multiple challenges still remain especially in developing countries. Better way to proceed would be to learn from historical patterns while we plan for the future in a technology-driven society with dynamic demographic, epidemiological and economic uncertainties. A structured review of both peer-reviewed and gray literature on the topic was carried out. On the whole, people are healthier, doing better financially and live longer today than 30 years ago. The number of under-5 mortality worldwide has declined from 12.7 million in 1990 to 6.3 million in 2013. Infant and maternal mortality rates have also been reduced. However, both rates are still considered high in Africa and some Asian countries. The world's population nearly doubled in these 30 years, from 4.8 billion in 1985 to 7.2 billion in 2015. The majority of the increasing population was coming from the least developed countries, i.e., 3.66 to 5.33 billion. The world will be short of 12.9 million health-care workers by 2035; today, that figure stands at 7.2 million. Health care expenditures among countries also show sharp differences. In high income countries, per person health expenditure is over USD 3,000 on average, while in poor countries, it is as low as USD 12, WHO estimate of minimum spending per person per year needed to provide basic, life-saving services is USD 44. The challenges faced by the global health system over the past 30 years have been increased in population and urbanization, behavioral changes, rise in chronic diseases, traumatic injuries, infectious diseases, specific regional conflicts and healthcare delivery security. Over the next 30 years, most of the world population growth will occur in the urban areas of poor countries. The rapid, unplanned and unsustainable style of urban development will make developing countries cities the key focal points for emerging environmental and health hazards. Changes will be seen in design, culture and practices of hospitals to better meet the needs of patients, families and providers. Top driving factors of global healthcare system for next 30 years will be leading causes of mortalities, non-health factors (impact of nutrition, sanitation and women's empowerment), investment in health workforce and growth of medical tourism in future healthcare scenario. Evaluating the patterns of previous 30 years and predicting the progress and challenges of future health system are no rocket science. Medical care will be more self-directed in a more tech-savvy population as information will be more accessible and user friendly with higher quality. Health driving factors such as clean water, sanitation and food will take the center stage in humanities struggle and even increase population size.

Planting seeds for the future of food.

PubMed

Green, Hilary; Broun, Pierre; Cakmak, Ismail; Condon, Liam; Fedoroff, Nina; Gonzalez-Valero, Juan; Graham, Ian; Lewis, Josette; Moloney, Maurice; Oniang'o, Ruth K; Sanginga, Nteranya; Shewry, Peter; Roulin, Anne

2016-03-30

The health and wellbeing of future generations will depend on humankind's ability to deliver sufficient nutritious food to a world population in excess of 9 billion. Feeding this many people by 2050 will require science-based solutions that address sustainable agricultural productivity and enable healthful dietary patterns in a more globally equitable way. This topic was the focus of a multi-disciplinary international conference hosted by Nestlé in June 2015, and provides the inspiration for the present article. The conference brought together a diverse range of expertise and organisations from the developing and industrialised world, all with a common interest in safeguarding the future of food. This article provides a snapshot of three of the recurring topics that were discussed during this conference: soil health, plant science and the future of farming practice. Crop plants and their cultivation are the fundamental building blocks for a food secure world. Whether these are grown for food or feed for livestock, they are the foundation of food and nutrient security. Many of the challenges for the future of food will be faced where the crops are grown: on the farm. Farmers need to plant the right crops and create the right conditions to maximise productivity (yield) and quality (e.g. nutritional content), whilst maintaining the environment, and earning a living. New advances in science and technology can provide the tools and know-how that will, together with a more entrepreneurial approach, help farmers to meet the inexorable demand for the sustainable production of nutritious foods for future generations. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of The Science of Food and Agriculture published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Planting seeds for the future of food

PubMed Central

Broun, Pierre; Cakmak, Ismail; Condon, Liam; Fedoroff, Nina; Gonzalez‐Valero, Juan; Graham, Ian; Lewis, Josette; Moloney, Maurice; Oniang'o, Ruth K; Sanginga, Nteranya; Shewry, Peter; Roulin, Anne

2016-01-01

Abstract The health and wellbeing of future generations will depend on humankind's ability to deliver sufficient nutritious food to a world population in excess of 9 billion. Feeding this many people by 2050 will require science‐based solutions that address sustainable agricultural productivity and enable healthful dietary patterns in a more globally equitable way. This topic was the focus of a multi‐disciplinary international conference hosted by Nestlé in June 2015, and provides the inspiration for the present article. The conference brought together a diverse range of expertise and organisations from the developing and industrialised world, all with a common interest in safeguarding the future of food. This article provides a snapshot of three of the recurring topics that were discussed during this conference: soil health, plant science and the future of farming practice. Crop plants and their cultivation are the fundamental building blocks for a food secure world. Whether these are grown for food or feed for livestock, they are the foundation of food and nutrient security. Many of the challenges for the future of food will be faced where the crops are grown: on the farm. Farmers need to plant the right crops and create the right conditions to maximise productivity (yield) and quality (e.g. nutritional content), whilst maintaining the environment, and earning a living. New advances in science and technology can provide the tools and know‐how that will, together with a more entrepreneurial approach, help farmers to meet the inexorable demand for the sustainable production of nutritious foods for future generations. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of The Science of Food and Agriculture published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. PMID:26619956

Resolution on the population and food equation and the search for rational and efficient solutions to the problem of Third World debt to ensure that the world can eat, 9 September 1989.

PubMed

1989-01-01

In September 1989, the 82nd Inter-Parliamentary Conference passed a resolution "on the population and food equation and the search for rational and efficient solutions to the problem of Third World debt to ensure that the world can eat." This document contains major portions of that resolution. In the area of population, the resolution affirms family planning (FP) as a basic human right and affirms the right of governments to establish their own population policies. Governments are asked to provide the educational opportunities necessary to secure equality and rights for women. Service delivery systems should be improved to make FP accessible to the 300 million women in need. Governments should reduce infant and maternal mortality, promote child care and birth spacing, and increase population education activities. The resolution also states that the creation of peaceful conditions for development is an essential precondition for solving the world's problems. In the area of food, the eradication of hunger is designated one of the primary tasks of the international community. This will only occur when developing countries increase their food production and achieve self-sufficiency. Such action is a basic and primary responsibility of developing countries but creditor nations can provide low interest rates for food import assistance and funds to strengthen the agricultural sector. The resolution further considers the problem of developing country debt and deplores coercive measures applied by certain developed countries against developing countries. The resolution contains many suggestions for reducing debt in developing countries and achieving a more equitable distribution of wealth in the world. In the area of food resources and sustainable development, the resolution acknowledges that protection of the environment and the earth's resource base for future generations is a collective responsibility. Ecological threats to the production of food should be dealt with, industrialized countries should decrease consumption of natural resources, and food production should be ecologically sound.

Future of the geoscience profession

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carleton, A.T.

1995-05-01

I want to discuss the future of the energy industry and the geoscience profession. That`s you and me. Is there a future for us? Will there be a need for petroleum? What will we use for energy in the future? Over the past several years, those of us in the energy business have witnessed remarkable changes in our industry and our profession. We must be able to change with the conditions if we are to survive them. To do so, some idea of what the future holds is essential. I will discuss what that future may be and will covermore » these topics: world population and energy demand, exploration and production outlook, environmental considerations, geoscience demographics, education, technology, and government. Much of the statistical data and some of the projections I will discuss have been taken from the report of AAPG`s 21st Century Committee, of which I was a member.« less

Agricultural Water Use under Global Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, T.; Ringler, C.; Rosegrant, M. W.

2008-12-01

Irrigation is by far the single largest user of water in the world and is projected to remain so in the foreseeable future. Globally, irrigated agricultural land comprises less than twenty percent of total cropland but produces about forty percent of the world's food. Increasing world population will require more food and this will lead to more irrigation in many areas. As demands increase and water becomes an increasingly scarce resource, agriculture's competition for water with other economic sectors will be intensified. This water picture is expected to become even more complex as climate change will impose substantial impacts on water availability and demand, in particular for agriculture. To better understand future water demand and supply under global change, including changes in demographic, economic and technological dimensions, the water simulation module of IMPACT, a global water and food projection model developed at the International Food Policy Research Institute, is used to analyze future water demand and supply in agricultural and several non-agricultural sectors using downscaled GCM scenarios, based on water availability simulation done with a recently developed semi-distributed global hydrological model. Risk analysis is conducted to identify countries and regions where future water supply reliability for irrigation is low, and food security may be threatened in the presence of climate change. Gridded shadow values of irrigation water are derived for global cropland based on an optimization framework, and they are used to illustrate potential irrigation development by incorporating gridded water availability and existing global map of irrigation areas.

World Population: Facts in Focus. World Population Data Sheet Workbook. Population Learning Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crews, Kimberly A.

This workbook teaches population analysis using world population statistics. To complete the four student activity sheets, the students refer to the included "1988 World Population Data Sheet" which lists nations' statistical data that includes population totals, projected population, birth and death rates, fertility levels, and the…

Biofortified Crops Generated by Breeding, Agronomy, and Transgenic Approaches Are Improving Lives of Millions of People around the World

PubMed Central

Garg, Monika; Sharma, Natasha; Sharma, Saloni; Kapoor, Payal; Kumar, Aman; Chunduri, Venkatesh; Arora, Priya

2018-01-01

Biofortification is an upcoming, promising, cost-effective, and sustainable technique of delivering micronutrients to a population that has limited access to diverse diets and other micronutrient interventions. Unfortunately, major food crops are poor sources of micronutrients required for normal human growth. The manuscript deals in all aspects of crop biofortification which includes—breeding, agronomy, and genetic modification. It tries to summarize all the biofortification research that has been conducted on different crops. Success stories of biofortification include lysine and tryptophan rich quality protein maize (World food prize 2000), Vitamin A rich orange sweet potato (World food prize 2016); generated by crop breeding, oleic acid, and stearidonic acid soybean enrichment; through genetic transformation and selenium, iodine, and zinc supplementation. The biofortified food crops, especially cereals, legumes, vegetables, and fruits, are providing sufficient levels of micronutrients to targeted populations. Although a greater emphasis is being laid on transgenic research, the success rate and acceptability of breeding is much higher. Besides the challenges biofortified crops hold a bright future to address the malnutrition challenge. PMID:29492405

Biofortified Crops Generated by Breeding, Agronomy, and Transgenic Approaches Are Improving Lives of Millions of People around the World.

PubMed

Garg, Monika; Sharma, Natasha; Sharma, Saloni; Kapoor, Payal; Kumar, Aman; Chunduri, Venkatesh; Arora, Priya

2018-01-01

Biofortification is an upcoming, promising, cost-effective, and sustainable technique of delivering micronutrients to a population that has limited access to diverse diets and other micronutrient interventions. Unfortunately, major food crops are poor sources of micronutrients required for normal human growth. The manuscript deals in all aspects of crop biofortification which includes-breeding, agronomy, and genetic modification. It tries to summarize all the biofortification research that has been conducted on different crops. Success stories of biofortification include lysine and tryptophan rich quality protein maize (World food prize 2000), Vitamin A rich orange sweet potato (World food prize 2016); generated by crop breeding, oleic acid, and stearidonic acid soybean enrichment; through genetic transformation and selenium, iodine, and zinc supplementation. The biofortified food crops, especially cereals, legumes, vegetables, and fruits, are providing sufficient levels of micronutrients to targeted populations. Although a greater emphasis is being laid on transgenic research, the success rate and acceptability of breeding is much higher. Besides the challenges biofortified crops hold a bright future to address the malnutrition challenge.

Infectious Diseases, Urbanization and Climate Change: Challenges in Future China

PubMed Central

Tong, Michael Xiaoliang; Hansen, Alana; Hanson-Easey, Scott; Cameron, Scott; Xiang, Jianjun; Liu, Qiyong; Sun, Yehuan; Weinstein, Philip; Han, Gil-Soo; Williams, Craig; Bi, Peng

2015-01-01

China is one of the largest countries in the world with nearly 20% of the world’s population. There have been significant improvements in economy, education and technology over the last three decades. Due to substantial investments from all levels of government, the public health system in China has been improved since the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak. However, infectious diseases still remain a major population health issue and this may be exacerbated by rapid urbanization and unprecedented impacts of climate change. This commentary aims to explore China’s current capacity to manage infectious diseases which impair population health. It discusses the existing disease surveillance system and underscores the critical importance of strengthening the system. It also explores how the growing migrant population, dramatic changes in the natural landscape following rapid urbanization, and changing climatic conditions can contribute to the emergence and re-emergence of infectious disease. Continuing research on infectious diseases, urbanization and climate change may inform the country’s capacity to deal with emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in the future. PMID:26371017

Species decline: A perspective on extinction, recovery, and propagation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carpenter, J.W.

1983-01-01

This keynote address was presented at the Conference on the Conservation of Endangered Species in Zoological Parks and Aquariums on April 18, 1982 at the National Aquarium in Baltimore. It outlines 1) future trends in the world's environment, resources, and population; 2) factors affecting species decline; 3) reasons for preserving life forms; and 4) techniques, with emphasis on captive propagation, used to assist in species recovery.

Our World, Our Future: Bilingual Activities on Population and the Environment = Nuestro Mundo, Nuestro Futuro: Actividades Bilingues Acerca de la Poblacion y el Medio Ambiente.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zero Population Growth, Inc., Washington, DC.

This bilingual activity guide helps to develop students' understandings of the interdependence of people and the environment. Interdisciplinary resources are provided featuring environmental education lessons with applications to the social studies, science, math, and family life education curricula. It is designed for the middle school level, but…

Forecasting the Range-wide Status of Polar Bears at Selected Times in the 21st Century

Treesearch

Steven C. Amstrup; Bruce G. Marcot; David C. Douglas

2007-01-01

To inform the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service decision whether or not to list polar bears as threatened under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), we forecast the status of the world's polar bear (Ursus maritimus) populations 45, 75 and 100 years into the future. We applied the best available information about predicted changes in sea ice in the...

A world without parasites: exploring the hidden ecology of infection

PubMed Central

Johnson, Pieter TJ

2016-01-01

Parasites have historically been considered a scourge, deserving of annihilation. Although parasite eradications rank among humanity's greatest achievements, new research is shedding light on the collateral effects of parasite loss. Here, we explore a “world without parasites”: a thought experiment for illuminating the ecological roles that parasites play in ecosystems. While there is robust evidence for the effects of parasites on host individuals (eg affecting host vital rates), this exercise highlights how little we know about the influence of parasites on communities and ecosystems (eg altering energy flow through food webs). We present hypotheses for novel, interesting, and general effects of parasites. These hypotheses are largely untested, and should be considered a springboard for future research. While many uncertainties exist, the available evidence suggests that a world without parasites would be very different from the world we know, with effects extending from host individuals to populations, communities, and even ecosystems. PMID:28077932

Rational design of high-yield and superior-quality rice.

PubMed

Zeng, Dali; Tian, Zhixi; Rao, Yuchun; Dong, Guojun; Yang, Yaolong; Huang, Lichao; Leng, Yujia; Xu, Jie; Sun, Chuan; Zhang, Guangheng; Hu, Jiang; Zhu, Li; Gao, Zhenyu; Hu, Xingming; Guo, Longbiao; Xiong, Guosheng; Wang, Yonghong; Li, Jiayang; Qian, Qian

2017-03-20

Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is a staple food for more than half of the world's population. To meet the ever-increasing demand for food, because of population growth and improved living standards, world rice production needs to double by 2030 1 . The development of new elite rice varieties with high yield and superior quality is challenging for traditional breeding approaches, and new strategies need to be developed. Here, we report the successful development of new elite varieties by pyramiding major genes that significantly contribute to grain quality and yield from three parents over five years. The new varieties exhibit higher yield potential and better grain quality than their parental varieties and the China's leading super-hybrid rice, Liang-you-pai-jiu (LYP9 or Pei-ai 64S/93-11). Our results demonstrate that rational design is a powerful strategy for meeting the challenges of future crop breeding, particularly in pyramiding multiple complex traits.

World Population: Toward the Next Century. Revised Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphy, Elaine M.

This document consists of answers to questions on various aspects of world population. They are: What is the population of the world? How fast is the population of the world growing? When will the population of the world stop growing? Is the term "population explosion" accurate? Why did this sudden growth occur? Did people have more babies than…

Conveying population education through games.

PubMed

1987-01-01

Games are extremely useful for conveying population education messages because they are entertaining, because they involve the players in the learning situation, and because, by compressing space and time, they enable the players to perceive the effects of future events on their own lives. One teaching game, called "Futures Wheel," enables the players to move step by step from an abstract real-world situation to its impact on their own lives. Another game, called "Card Game on Family Welfare," is played by 4 players using cards illustrating such things as preparation for marriage, planned families, small families, responsible parenthood, and women's roles. 24 of the 25 cards dealt to the players have matching pictures on a base sheet. The player who loses, i.e., cannot find a match for his last card, is holding the card which displays an unhappy big family.

Population structure and genetic diversity of the parasite Trichomonas vaginalis in Bristol, UK.

PubMed

Hawksworth, Joseph; Levy, Max; Smale, Chloe; Cheung, Dean; Whittle, Alice; Longhurst, Denise; Muir, Peter; Gibson, Wendy

2015-08-01

The protozoan parasite Trichomonas vaginalis is the causative agent of trichomoniasis, an extremely common, but non-life-threatening, sexually-transmitted disease throughout the world. Recent population genetics studies of T. vaginalis have detected high genetic diversity and revealed a two-type population structure, associated with phenotypic differences in sensitivity to metronidazole, the drug commonly used for treatment, and presence of T. vaginalis virus. There is currently a lack of data on UK isolates; most isolates examined to date are from the US. Here we used a recently described system for multilocus sequence typing (MLST) of T. vaginalis to study diversity of clinical isolates from Bristol, UK. We used MLST to characterise 23 clinical isolates of T. vaginalis collected from female patients during 2013. Seven housekeeping genes were PCR-amplified for each isolate and sequenced. The concatenated sequences were then compared with data from other MLST-characterised isolates available from http://tvaginalis.mlst.net/ to analyse the population structure and construct phylogenetic trees. Among the 23 isolates from the Bristol population of T. vaginalis, we found 23 polymorphic nucleotide sites, 25 different alleles and 19 sequence types (genotypes). Most isolates had a unique genotype, in agreement with the high levels of heterogeneity observed elsewhere in the world. A two-type population structure was evident from population genetic analysis and phylogenetic reconstruction split the isolates into two major clades. Tests for recombination in the Bristol population of T. vaginalis gave conflicting results, suggesting overall a clonal pattern of reproduction. We conclude that the Bristol population of T. vaginalis parasites conforms to the two-type population structure found in most other regions of the world. We found the MLST scheme to be an efficient genotyping method. The online MLST database provides a useful repository and resource that will prove invaluable in future studies linking the genetics of T. vaginalis with the clinical manifestation of trichomoniasis. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Opportunities for Enhanced Strategic Use of Surveys, Medical Records, and Program Data for HIV Surveillance of Key Populations: Scoping Review

PubMed Central

Baral, Stefan D; Edwards, Jessie K; Zadrozny, Sabrina; Hargreaves, James; Zhao, Jinkou; Sabin, Keith

2018-01-01

Background Normative guidelines from the World Health Organization recommend tracking strategic information indicators among key populations. Monitoring progress in the global response to the HIV epidemic uses indicators put forward by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS. These include the 90-90-90 targets that require a realignment of surveillance data, routinely collected program data, and medical record data, which historically have developed separately. Objective The aim of this study was to describe current challenges for monitoring HIV-related strategic information indicators among key populations ((men who have sex with men [MSM], people in prisons and other closed settings, people who inject drugs, sex workers, and transgender people) and identify future opportunities to enhance the use of surveillance data, programmatic data, and medical record data to describe the HIV epidemic among key populations and measure the coverage of HIV prevention, care, and treatment programs. Methods To provide a historical perspective, we completed a scoping review of the expansion of HIV surveillance among key populations over the past three decades. To describe current efforts, we conducted a review of the literature to identify published examples of SI indicator estimates among key populations. To describe anticipated challenges and future opportunities to improve measurement of strategic information indicators, particularly from routine program and health data, we consulted participants of the Third Global HIV Surveillance Meeting in Bangkok, where the 2015 World Health Organization strategic information guidelines were launched. Results There remains suboptimal alignment of surveillance and programmatic data, as well as routinely collected medical records to facilitate the reporting of the 90-90-90 indicators for HIV among key populations. Studies (n=3) with estimates of all three 90-90-90 indicators rely on cross-sectional survey data. Programmatic data and medical record data continue to be insufficiently robust to provide estimates of the 90-90-90 targets for key populations. Conclusions Current reliance on more active data collection processes, including key population-specific surveys, remains warranted until the quality and validity of passively collected routine program and medical record data for key populations is optimized. PMID:29789279

Averting a world food shortage: tighten your belts for CAIRO II.

PubMed

King, M; Elliott, C

1996-10-19

We are going to have to eat what the world will produce with all its failings, not what it could produce without them. Trends in global food production are therefore all important. These are now giving cause for anxiety, in that the rate of increase of global grain yields has been slowing seriously. Locally, the food security of some demographically trapped communities is so dire that, like China, they need one child families. The 1994 Cairo population conference (Cairo I) took future food supplies for granted and took no account of demographic entrapment: the conference should be recalled urgently as CAIRO II.

The path towards sustainable energy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chu, Steven; Cui, Yi; Liu, Nian

Civilization continues to be transformed by our ability to harness energy beyond human and animal power. A series of industrial and agricultural revolutions have allowed an increasing fraction of the world population to heat and light their homes, fertilize and irrigate their crops, connect to one another and travel around the world. All of this progress is fuelled by our ability to find, extract and use energy with ever increasing dexterity. Lastly, research in materials science is contributing to progress towards a sustainable future based on clean energy generation, transmission and distribution, the storage of electrical and chemical energy, energymore » efficiency, and better energy management systems.« less

Managing Internal Radiation Contamination Following an Emergency: Identification of Gaps and Priorities.

PubMed

Li, Chunsheng; Ansari, Armin; Etherington, George; Jourdain, Jean-Rene; Kukhta, Boris; Kurihara, Osamu; Lopez, Maria Antonia; Ménétrier, Florence; Alves Dos Reis, Arlene; Solomon, Stephen; Zhang, Jiangfeng; Carr, Zhanat

2016-09-01

Following a radiological or nuclear emergency, first responders and the public may become internally contaminated with radioactive materials, as demonstrated during the Goiânia, Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents. Timely monitoring of the affected populations for potential internal contamination, assessment of radiation dose and the provision of necessary medical treatment are required to minimize the health risks from the contamination. This paper summarizes the guidelines and tools that have been developed, and identifies the gaps and priorities for future projects. © World Health Organisation 2016. All rights reserved. The World Health Organization has granted Oxford University Press permission for the reproduction of this article.

The path towards sustainable energy

DOE PAGES

Chu, Steven; Cui, Yi; Liu, Nian

2016-12-20

Civilization continues to be transformed by our ability to harness energy beyond human and animal power. A series of industrial and agricultural revolutions have allowed an increasing fraction of the world population to heat and light their homes, fertilize and irrigate their crops, connect to one another and travel around the world. All of this progress is fuelled by our ability to find, extract and use energy with ever increasing dexterity. Lastly, research in materials science is contributing to progress towards a sustainable future based on clean energy generation, transmission and distribution, the storage of electrical and chemical energy, energymore » efficiency, and better energy management systems.« less

Ready for the World: preparing nursing students for tomorrow.

PubMed

Callen, Bonnie L; Lee, Jan L

2009-01-01

In 2004, a 5-year plan of international and intercultural education was developed by the University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK) to help students become ready for the changing world in which they will live. This program is called "Ready for the World." The University of Tennessee College of Nursing in Knoxville has integrated many of the suggestions from this program into the undergraduate nursing curriculum to prepare students for the world by making the world their classroom. Intercultural learning includes both a solid base of knowledge obtained in the classroom and multiple experiences that involve cultural interaction. Experiences begin on UTK's diverse campus and expand to the surrounding city of Knoxville, including interactions with vulnerable populations such as the homeless or elderly persons, then to nearby Appalachian communities, and on to Central America. Many of these experiences are offered for credit in the Community Health Nursing or the Transcultural Nursing courses. The knowledge nursing students acquire and their varied experiences will help them gain cultural competence for their future nursing practice.

Sustainable Skyscrapers: Designing the Net Zero Energy Building of the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kothari, S.; Bartsch, A.

2016-12-01

Cities of the future will need to increase population density in order to keep up with the rising populations in the limited available land area. In order to provide sufficient power as the population grows, cities must become more energy efficient. Fossil fuels and grid energy will continue to become more expensive as nonrenewable resources deplete. The obvious solution to increase population density while decreasing the reliance on fossil fuels is to build taller skyscrapers that are energy neutral, i.e. self-sustaining. However, current skyscrapers are not energy efficient, and therefore cannot provide a sustainable solution to the problem of increasing population density in the face of depleting energy resources. The design of a net zero energy building that includes both residential and commercial space is presented. Alternative energy systems such as wind turbines, photovoltaic cells, and a waste-to-fuel conversion plant have been incorporated into the design of a 50 story skyscraper that is not reliant on fossil fuels and has a payback time of about six years. Although the current building was designed to be located in San Francisco, simple modifications to the design would allow this building to fit the needs of any city around the world.

The crowded life is a slow life: Population density and life history strategy.

PubMed

Sng, Oliver; Neuberg, Steven L; Varnum, Michael E W; Kenrick, Douglas T

2017-05-01

The world population has doubled over the last half century. Yet, research on the psychological effects of human population density, once a popular topic, has decreased over the past few decades. Applying a fresh perspective to an old topic, we draw upon life history theory to examine the effects of population density. Across nations and across the U.S. states (Studies 1 and 2), we find that dense populations exhibit behaviors corresponding to a slower life history strategy, including greater future-orientation, greater investment in education, more long-term mating orientation, later marriage age, lower fertility, and greater parental investment. In Studies 3 and 4, experimentally manipulating perceptions of high density led individuals to become more future-oriented. Finally, in Studies 5 and 6, experimentally manipulating perceptions of high density seemed to lead to life-stage-specific slower strategies, with college students preferring to invest in fewer rather than more relationship partners, and an older MTurk sample preferring to invest in fewer rather than more children. This research sheds new insight on the effects of density and its implications for human cultural variation and society at large. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Long-term population cycles in human societies.

PubMed

Turchin, Peter

2009-04-01

Human population dynamics are usually conceptualized as either boundless growth or growth to an equilibrium. The implicit assumption underlying these paradigms is that any feedback processes regulating population density, if they exist, operate on a fast-time-scale, and therefore we do not expect to observe population oscillations in human population numbers. This review asks, are population processes in historical and prehistorical human populations characterized by second-order feedback loops, that is, regulation involving lags? If yes, then the implications for forecasting future population change are obvious--what may appear as inexplicable, exogenously driven reverses in population trends may actually be a result of feedbacks operating with substantial time lags. This survey of a variety of historical and archeological data indicates that slow oscillations in population numbers, with periods of roughly two to three centuries, are observed in a number of world regions and historical periods. Next, a potential explanation for this pattern, the demographic-structural theory, is discussed. Finally, the implications of these results for global population forecasts is discussed.

Microbial Biotechnology 2020; microbiology of fossil fuel resources.

PubMed

Head, Ian M; Gray, Neil D

2016-09-01

This roadmap examines the future of microbiology research and technology in fossil fuel energy recovery. Globally, the human population will be reliant on fossil fuels for energy and chemical feedstocks for at least the medium term. Microbiology is already important in many areas relevant to both upstream and downstream activities in the oil industry. However, the discipline has struggled for recognition in a world dominated by geophysicists and engineers despite widely known but still poorly understood microbially mediated processes e.g. reservoir biodegradation, reservoir souring and control, microbial enhanced oil recovery. The role of microbiology is even less understood in developing industries such as shale gas recovery by fracking or carbon capture by geological storage. In the future, innovative biotechnologies may offer new routes to reduced emissions pathways especially when applied to the vast unconventional heavy oil resources formed, paradoxically, from microbial activities in the geological past. However, despite this potential, recent low oil prices may make industry funding hard to come by and recruitment of microbiologists by the oil and gas industry may not be a high priority. With regards to public funded research and the imperative for cheap secure energy for economic growth in a growing world population, there are signs of inherent conflicts between policies aimed at a low carbon future using renewable technologies and policies which encourage technologies which maximize recovery from our conventional and unconventional fossil fuel assets. © 2016 The Authors. Microbial Biotechnology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and Society for Applied Microbiology.

Health issues in the Arab American community. Commentary on the global epidemic of tobacco, a manufactured disease. What it looks like today and what's to come.

PubMed

Warner, Kenneth E

2007-01-01

An estimated 1.2 billion citizens of the world are smokers. In developing countries, half the males smoke. WHO projects a global smoking population of 1.6 billion by the end of the next two decades. Collectively, today the world's smokers annually consume nearly 1,000 cigarettes for every man, woman and child on the planet. Almost 5 million people die as a result of smoking, half during their productive working years, with half occurring in developing countries. Two decades hence, tobacco products will kill an estimated 10 million people every year, 70% of them in the world's poor nations. During the 20th century, smoking killed 100 million people. Without significant public health progress, cigarettes will claim the lives of an estimated one billion during the 21st century. Progress can be achieved, however, through the adoption and enforcement of effective tobacco control policies. Such policies are embedded in the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, the world's first international health treaty. They include protecting nonsmokers from the hazards of secondhand smoke in all indoor workplaces and public places, banning tobacco advertising and sponsorship, raising tobacco taxes and eliminating the smuggling of untaxed cigarettes. The future health of the world's population rests on the success that will be achieved in global tobacco control.

Global ice-core research: Understanding and applying environmental records of the past

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cecil, L. DeWayne; Green, Jaromy R.; Naftz, David L.

2000-01-01

Environmental changes are of major concern at low- or mid-latitude regions of our Earth simply because this is where 80 to 90 percent of the world’s human population live. Ice cores collected from isolated polar regions are, at best, proxy indicators of low- and mid-latitude environmental changes. Because polar icecore research is limiting in this sense, ice cores from low- and mid-latitude glaciers are being used to study past environmental changes in order to better understand and predict future environmental changes that may affect the populated regions of the world.

The effect of education on climate change risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.; KC, S.; Jiang, L.; Fuchs, R.; Pachauri, S.; Ren, X.; Zhang, T.; Laidlaw, E.

2017-12-01

Changes in the demographic and socio-economic compositions of populations are relevant to the climate change issue because these characteristics can be important determinants both of the capacity to adapt to climate change impacts as well as of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, and therefore climate change. However, the incorporation of major trends such as aging, urbanization, and changes in household size into projections of future energy use and emissions is rare. Here we build on our previous work in this area by exploring the implications of future changes in educational attainment for the climate issue. Changes in the educational composition of the population may reduce the vulnerability of the population to climate change impacts, reducing risks. However they may also have effects on energy use and land use, and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change and increase risks. The direction of the effect of education on emissions is itself ambiguous. On the one hand, improvements in education can be expected to lead to faster fertility decline and slower population growth which, all else equal, would be expected to reduce emissions. On the other hand, education can also be expected to lead to faster economic growth, which would tend to increase emissions, and also to changes in consumption patterns. We employ iPETS, an integrated assessment model that includes a multi-region model of the world economy, driven with a new set of country-specific projections of future educational composition, to test the net effect of education on energy use and emissions on four world regions (China, India, Latin America, and Rest of Asia + Middle East) and therefore on climate. We also calculate the Human Development Index (HDI) for each region resulting from these scenarios, as an indicator of vulnerability to climate impacts. We find that the net effect of improved education is to increase emissions in the medium term driven primarily by increased labor productivity, but decrease emissions in the long term primarily as a result of slower population growth. At the same time, improved education positively affects all aspects of the HDI at all time horizons. Important caveats include the uncertainty in the effect of education on economic growth.

Changing population dynamics and uneven temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrington, Luke J.; Otto, Friederike E. L.

2018-03-01

Understanding how continuing increases in global mean temperature will exacerbate societal exposure to extreme weather events is a question of profound importance. However, determining population exposure to the impacts of heat extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global mean warming requires not only (1) a robust understanding of the physical climate system response, but also consideration of (2) projected changes to overall population size, as well as (3) changes to where people will live in the future. This analysis introduces a new framework, adapted from studies of probabilistic event attribution, to disentangle the relative importance of regional climate emergence and changing population dynamics in the exposure to future heat extremes across multiple densely populated regions in Southern Asia and Eastern Africa (SAEA). Our results reveal that, when population is kept at 2015 levels, exposure to heat considered severe in the present decade across SAEA will increase by a factor of 4.1 (2.4-9.6) and 15.8 (5.0-135) under a 1.5°- and 2.0°-warmer world, respectively. Furthermore, projected population changes by the end of the century under an SSP1 and SSP2 scenario can further exacerbate these changes by a factor of 1.2 (1.0-1.3) and 1.5 (1.3-1.7), respectively. However, a large fraction of this additional risk increase is not related to absolute increases in population, but instead attributed to changes in which regions exhibit continued population growth into the future. Further, this added impact of population redistribution will be twice as significant after 2.0 °C of warming, relative to stabilisation at 1.5 °C, due to the non-linearity of increases in heat exposure. Irrespective of the population scenario considered, continued African population expansion will place more people in locations where emergent changes to future heat extremes are exceptionally severe.

A national audit of Australian dental practice distribution: do all Australians get a fair deal?

PubMed

Tennant, Marc; Kruger, Estie

2013-08-01

Australia is the sixth biggest (by area) country in the world, having a total area of about 7.5 million km(2) (3 million square miles). This study located every dental practice in the country (private and public) and mapped these practices against population. The total population of Australia (21.5 million) is distributed across 8,529 suburbs. On average about one-third of the population from each State lives in suburbs without practices and 46% live in suburbs with one to five dentists. Of those living within the study frameset, 86.6% live within 5 km of a private practice and 84.4% live within 10 km of a government practice. Australia's dental practices are distributed in a very uneven fashion across its vast area. Three-quarters of suburbs have no dental practice and over one-third of the population live in these suburbs. This research clearly identified that in a vast and uneven socio-geographically distributed country, service planning, if left to market forces, will end with a practice distribution that is fixed by economic drivers of scale and not that of disease burden. A more population health-driven approach to future design and construction of government safety net services is needed to address these disparities. © 2013 FDI World Dental Federation.

Fishing, fast growth and climate variability increase the risk of collapse

PubMed Central

Pinsky, Malin L.; Byler, David

2015-01-01

Species around the world have suffered collapses, and a key question is why some populations are more vulnerable than others. Traditional conservation biology and evidence from terrestrial species suggest that slow-growing populations are most at risk, but interactions between climate variability and harvest dynamics may alter or even reverse this pattern. Here, we test this hypothesis globally. We use boosted regression trees to analyse the influences of harvesting, species traits and climate variability on the risk of collapse (decline below a fixed threshold) across 154 marine fish populations around the world. The most important factor explaining collapses was the magnitude of overfishing, while the duration of overfishing best explained long-term depletion. However, fast growth was the next most important risk factor. Fast-growing populations and those in variable environments were especially sensitive to overfishing, and the risk of collapse was more than tripled for fast-growing when compared with slow-growing species that experienced overfishing. We found little evidence that, in the absence of overfishing, climate variability or fast growth rates alone drove population collapse over the last six decades. Expanding efforts to rapidly adjust harvest pressure to account for climate-driven lows in productivity could help to avoid future collapses, particularly among fast-growing species. PMID:26246548

Fishing, fast growth and climate variability increase the risk of collapse.

PubMed

Pinsky, Malin L; Byler, David

2015-08-22

Species around the world have suffered collapses, and a key question is why some populations are more vulnerable than others. Traditional conservation biology and evidence from terrestrial species suggest that slow-growing populations are most at risk, but interactions between climate variability and harvest dynamics may alter or even reverse this pattern. Here, we test this hypothesis globally. We use boosted regression trees to analyse the influences of harvesting, species traits and climate variability on the risk of collapse (decline below a fixed threshold) across 154 marine fish populations around the world. The most important factor explaining collapses was the magnitude of overfishing, while the duration of overfishing best explained long-term depletion. However, fast growth was the next most important risk factor. Fast-growing populations and those in variable environments were especially sensitive to overfishing, and the risk of collapse was more than tripled for fast-growing when compared with slow-growing species that experienced overfishing. We found little evidence that, in the absence of overfishing, climate variability or fast growth rates alone drove population collapse over the last six decades. Expanding efforts to rapidly adjust harvest pressure to account for climate-driven lows in productivity could help to avoid future collapses, particularly among fast-growing species. © 2015 The Author(s).

Global supply and demand of metals in the future.

PubMed

Backman, Carl-Magnus

2008-01-01

This article is a short review on the subject of diminishing mineral resources in a world with increasing population. The concepts of reserves, resources, and life index are described. A forecast is made on the global consumption in the year 2050 of the metals iron (Fe), aluminum (Al), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), nickel (Ni), and lead (Pb). Evidence indicates that a physical depletion of metals does not occur (fixed stock paradigm) but certain metals will become too expensive to extract (opportunity cost paradigm). The future demand for cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), arsenic (As), and selenium (Se) is presented. Finally, some metals presently of great interest for mineral prospectors that may have an important role in the future society are presented.

Assessment of Cardiovascular Disease Risk in South Asian Populations

PubMed Central

Hussain, S. Monira; Oldenburg, Brian; Zoungas, Sophia; Tonkin, Andrew M.

2013-01-01

Although South Asian populations have high cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden in the world, their patterns of individual CVD risk factors have not been fully studied. None of the available algorithms/scores to assess CVD risk have originated from these populations. To explore the relevance of CVD risk scores for these populations, literature search and qualitative synthesis of available evidence were performed. South Asians usually have higher levels of both “classical” and nontraditional CVD risk factors and experience these at a younger age. There are marked variations in risk profiles between South Asian populations. More than 100 risk algorithms are currently available, with varying risk factors. However, no available algorithm has included all important risk factors that underlie CVD in these populations. The future challenge is either to appropriately calibrate current risk algorithms or ideally to develop new risk algorithms that include variables that provide an accurate estimate of CVD risk. PMID:24163770

Health and ecological sustainability in the Arab world: a matter of survival.

PubMed

El-Zein, Abbas; Jabbour, Samer; Tekce, Belgin; Zurayk, Huda; Nuwayhid, Iman; Khawaja, Marwan; Tell, Tariq; Al Mooji, Yusuf; De-Jong, Jocelyn; Yassin, Nasser; Hogan, Dennis

2014-02-01

Discussions leading to the Rio+20 UN conference have emphasised the importance of sustainable development and the protection of the environment for future generations. The Arab world faces large-scale threats to its sustainable development and, most of all, to the viability and existence of the ecological systems for its human settlements. The dynamics of population change, ecological degradation, and resource scarcity, and development policies and practices, all occurring in complex and highly unstable geopolitical and economic environments, are fostering the poor prospects. In this report, we discuss the most pertinent population-environment-development dynamics in the Arab world, and the two-way interactions between these dynamics and health, on the basis of current data. We draw attention to trends that are relevant to health professionals and researchers, but emphasise that the dynamics generating these trends have implications that go well beyond health. We argue that the current discourse on health, population, and development in the Arab world has largely failed to convey a sense of urgency, when the survival of whole communities is at stake. The dismal ecological and development records of Arab countries over the past two decades call for new directions. We suggest that regional ecological integration around exchange of water, energy, food, and labour, though politically difficult to achieve, offers the best hope to improve the adaptive capacity of individual Arab nations. The transformative political changes taking place in the Arab world offer promise, indeed an imperative, for such renewal. We call on policy makers, researchers, practitioners, and international agencies to emphasise the urgency and take action. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Women and kidney disease: reflections on World Kidney Day 2018

PubMed Central

Piccoli, Giorgina B; Alrukhaimi, Mona; Liu, Zhi-Hong; Zakharova, Elena

2018-01-01

Abstract Chronic kidney disease affects ∼10% of the world’s adult population: it is within the top 20 causes of death worldwide, and its impact on patients and their families can be devastating. World Kidney Day and International Women’s Day in 2018 coincide, thus offering an opportunity to reflect on the importance of women’s health, and specifically their kidney health, to the community and the next generations, as well as to strive to be more curious about the unique aspects of kidney disease in women, so that we may apply those learnings more broadly. Girls and women, who make up ∼50% of the world’s population, are important contributors to society as a whole and to their families. Gender differences continue to exist around the world in access to education, medical care and participation in clinical studies. Pregnancy is a unique state for women, offering an opportunity for diagnosis of kidney disease, and also a state where acute and chronic kidney diseases may manifest, and which may impact future generations with respect to kidney health. There are various autoimmune and other conditions that are more likely to impact women with profound consequences for child bearing, and for the fetus. Women have different complications on dialysis than men, and are more likely to be donors than recipients of kidney transplants. In this editorial, we focus on what we do and do not know about women, kidney health and kidney disease, and what we might learn in the future to improve outcomes worldwide. PMID:29435267

Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mankin, Justin S.; Viviroli, Daniel; Mekonnen, Mesfin M.; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Horton, Radley M.; E Smerdon, Jason; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2017-04-01

Future freshwater supply, human water demand, and people’s exposure to water stress are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, including unknown future pathways of fossil fuel and water consumption, and ‘irreducible’ uncertainty arising from internal climate system variability. Such internal variability can conceal forced hydroclimatic changes on multi-decadal timescales and near-continental spatial-scales. Using three projections of population growth, a large ensemble from a single Earth system model, and assuming stationary per capita water consumption, we quantify the likelihoods of future population exposure to increased hydroclimatic deficits, which we define as the average duration and magnitude by which evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation in a basin. We calculate that by 2060, ∽31%-35% of the global population will be exposed to >50% probability of hydroclimatic deficit increases that exceed existing hydrological storage, with up to 9% of people exposed to >90% probability. However, internal variability, which is an irreducible uncertainty in climate model predictions that is under-sampled in water resource projections, creates substantial uncertainty in predicted exposure: ∽86%-91% of people will reside where irreducible uncertainty spans the potential for both increases and decreases in sub-annual water deficits. In one population scenario, changes in exposure to large hydroclimate deficits vary from -3% to +6% of global population, a range arising entirely from internal variability. The uncertainty in risk arising from irreducible uncertainty in the precise pattern of hydroclimatic change, which is typically conflated with other uncertainties in projections, is critical for climate risk management that seeks to optimize adaptations that are robust to the full set of potential real-world outcomes.

Climate change: The necessary, the possible and the desirable Earth League climate statement on the implications for climate policy from the 5th IPCC Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rockström, Johan; Brasseur, Guy; Hoskins, Brian; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schellnhuber, John; Kabat, Pavel; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Gong, Peng; Schlosser, Peter; Máñez Costa, Maria; Humble, April; Eyre, Nick; Gleick, Peter; James, Rachel; Lucena, Andre; Masera, Omar; Moench, Marcus; Schaeffer, Roberto; Seitzinger, Sybil; van der Leeuw, Sander; Ward, Bob; Stern, Nicholas; Hurrell, James; Srivastava, Leena; Morgan, Jennifer; Nobre, Carlos; Sokona, Youba; Cremades, Roger; Roth, Ellinor; Liverman, Diana; Arnott, James

2014-12-01

The development of human civilisations has occurred at a time of stable climate. This climate stability is now threatened by human activity. The rising global climate risk occurs at a decisive moment for world development. World nations are currently discussing a global development agenda consequent to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which ends in 2015. It is increasingly possible to envisage a world where absolute poverty is largely eradicated within one generation and where ambitious goals on universal access and equal opportunities for dignified lives are adopted. These grand aspirations for a world population approaching or even exceeding nine billion in 2050 is threatened by substantial global environmental risks and by rising inequality. Research shows that development gains, in both rich and poor nations, can be undermined by social, economic and ecological problems caused by human-induced global environmental change. Climate risks, and associated changes in marine and terrestrial ecosystems that regulate the resilience of the climate system, are at the forefront of these global risks. We, as citizens with a strong engagement in Earth system science and socio-ecological dynamics, share the vision of a more equitable and prosperous future for the world, yet we also see threats to this future from shifts in climate and environmental processes. Without collaborative action now, our shared Earth system may not be able to sustainably support a large proportion of humanity in the decades ahead.

Quantifying and Projecting Relative Sea-Level Rise in The Deltaic Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shum, C. K.; Chung-Yen, K.; Calmant, S.; Yang, T. Y.; Guo, Q.; Jia, Y.; Ballu, V.; Guo, J.; Karptychev, M.; Krien, Y.; Kusche, J.; Tseng, K. H.; Wan, J.; Uebbing, B.

2017-12-01

Half of the world's population lives within 200 km of coastlines. Accelerated sea-level rise, compounded by effects of population growth, severe land subsidence due to fluvial sediment compaction/load, and anthropogenic oil and natural gas and ground water extraction, tectonic motion, and the increasing threat of more intense and more frequent cyclone-driven storm surges, have exacerbated the vulnerability of many of world's deltaic regions, including the Bangladesh and the Mississippi River Deltas. At present, understanding and quantifying the natural and anthropogenic processes governing these solid Earth vertical motion processes remain elusive to enable addressing coastal vulnerability due to current and future projection of relative sea-level rise for deltaic regions at the regional scales. Bangladesh, a low-lying and one of the most densely populated countries in the world located at the Bay of Bengal, is prone to transboundary monsoonal flooding, and is believed to be aggravated by more frequent and intensified cyclones resulting from anthropogenic climate change. The Mississippi River Deltaic region has been severely subsiding due primarily to fluvial sediment compaction and load during the last 10 centuries, oil/gas and groundwater extractions, and commercial developments, making it vulnerable to sea-level rise hazards. Here we present results of global geocentric sea-level rise, 1950-2016, separating vertical land motion at global tide gauge datum, by integrating tide gauge and radar altimeter records in a novel sea-level reconstruction scheme, focusing on the Mississippi River and the Bangladesh Deltas. We then integrate the resulting sea level estimates with historic imageries, GPS and InSAR data, as well as sediment isostatic and load model predicted present-day land subsidence, to constrain the 3D land motion to study the impacts of various scenarios of future relative sea level projections on the Bangladesh Delta to the end of the 21st Century and beyond.

Generalizability of clinical trials of advanced melanoma in the real-world, population-based setting.

PubMed

Sam, Davis; Gresham, Gillian; Abdel-Rahman, Omar; Cheung, Winson Y

2018-06-18

Results from novel therapeutics trials are not always generalizable to real-world patients. We aimed to determine the pattern in which trial findings are applied in a population-based setting of melanoma patients and consequent treatment outcomes. Patients with unresectable disease during 2011-2014 and referred to cancer centers in a large Canadian province were retrospectively reviewed. Based on eligibility criteria as described in registration trials of vemurafenib (Vem) and ipilimumab (Ipi), we classified patients into trial-eligible and ineligible and those treated and untreated with these agents. We identified 290 patients with known BRAF status for the Vem analysis and 212 patients previously treated with first-line agents for the Ipi analysis. For the Vem cohort, a total of 49 patients were considered trial-eligible, of whom 36 (73%) received treatment. For the Ipi cohort, there were 119 trial-eligible cases of whom 43 (36%) received therapy. Factors other than eligibility criteria most frequently associated with non-treatment in these cohorts included concerns regarding treatment harm and patient preferences. In multivariable analysis, overall survival was improved in Vem cohort patients considered trial-eligible and treated compared to those who were ineligible. Within the Ipi cohort, survival was improved in trial-eligible patients regardless of whether they received Ipi compared to ineligible patients. Real-world uptake of new melanoma treatments was suboptimal, and non-use in trial-eligible patients was frequent. Future clinical trials that are more pragmatically designed to include participants who better reflect the real-world population may facilitate increased uptake of novel therapeutics into routine clinical practice.

Iron and steel recycling in the United States in 1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fenton, Michael D.

2001-01-01

Consumption of iron and steel scrap and the health of the scrap industry depend directly on the health of the steelmaking industry. The United States, as well as most of the world, is expected to consume increasing amounts of scrap as a steadily increasing population demands more steel products. World resources of scrap should be sufficient for the foreseeable future. An estimated 75 million metric tons (Mt) of scrap was generated during 1998 in the United States, and 35 Mt of old scrap and 18 Mt of new scrap was consumed. The recycling efficiency was calculated to be 52%, and the recycling rate was found to be 41%. (See appendix for definitions.)

Analysing the World Population: Using Population Pyramids and "If the World Were a Village"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Caniglia, Joanne; Leapard, Barbara

2010-01-01

The book "If the World Were a Village," by David J. Smith, is the context for analysing and creating graphs of the world's demographic information. Students examine numerical information regarding the more than six billion world inhabitants by imagining the world's population as 100 people.

Agricultural ecosystems - The world is watching

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Madison, M.F.; Licht, L.A.

1990-02-01

Environmental degradation is displacing nuclear war as the overriding concern of the world's people. An accusing finger is rightfully pointed at agricultural practices - for degrading water, air, food, and societal quality. As reported in the popular and technical press, there is a clamor for farming technology that is both productive and ecological. We cannot survive without a productive agriculture. Yet, the eroding soil, the degrading water quality, the decrease in farm profitability, the reductions in wildlife populations, and the closing store fronts in rural America point to a need for new management approaches. The word sustainable continues to bemore » mentioned as an underlying theme for future management techniques. Soil, air, and water form a seamless whole - the thin envelope we call the biosphere. The term sustainable agriculture implies a nourishing stewardship of the biosphere when used by farmers in pursuit of their livelihood. This biosphere simultaneously produces and sustains a multitude of products, including ourselves. It is all we have to create both our present and our future.« less

Transgenics in crops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Y.; Wu, Y. H.; McAvoy, R.; Duan, H.

2001-01-01

With rapid world population growth and declining availability of fresh water and arable land, a new technology is urgently needed to enhance agricultural productivity. Recent discoveries in the field of crop transgenics clearly demonstrate the great potential of this technology for increasing food production and improving food quality while preserving the environment for future generations. In this review, we briefly discuss some of the recent achievements in crop improvement that have been made using gene transfer technology.

Should nuclear energy form part of the UK's energy future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, Peter

2003-03-01

Energy policies are under review everywhere, as the world tries to meet targets for reducing climate change despite continuing population growth. A major change in energy patterns is needed, with the critical period for transition predictably happening when young people currently at school are in their middle years of their lives. This article describes one way of bringing the debate surrounding energy demand and supply to life in physics classrooms.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique

Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires a good prospective vision on the future development of food demand. This paper reviews modeling approaches from ten global economic models participating to the AgMIP project, in particular the demand function chosen and the set of parameters used. We compare food demand projections at the horizon 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios. Depending on models, we find for a business as usual scenario (SSP2) an increase in food demand of 59-98% by 2050, slightly higher than FAO projection (54%). The prospectivemore » for animal calories is particularly uncertain with a range of 61-144%, whereas FAO anticipates an increase by 76%. The projections reveal more sensitive to socio-economic assumptions than to climate change conditions or bioenergy development. When considering a higher population lower economic growth world (SSP3), consumption per capita drops by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. Various assumptions on climate change in this exercise do not lead to world calorie losses greater than 6%. Divergences across models are however notable, due to differences in demand system, income elasticities specification, and response to price change in the baseline.« less

The shape of things to come.

PubMed

Gallagher, C F

1979-01-01

Basic projections for the future made by various international and national planning organizations form the basis for a report on the demographic, economic, and social implications of population growth for the year 2000, both as to the statistics involved and what they mean. The most signficiant factor is that by the end of the century, global population will be greater than 6 billion. Statistics on population patterns are presented for Asia; India; China; Africa; Latin America; North America; Europe, Oceania, and the USSR, including population growth; birthrate; mortality; population projections; population distribution; age of populations; and urbanization. The realities that stand behind these abstract and impersonal statistics of population change will pose significant problems in several major respects: how these increasing populations will support themselves; where they will live; and how they will be fed. These question are closely related, but the need to create jobs might come 1st since decisions about the kind of employment opportunities to be offered and where will directly affect the rural-urban population equation. It is clear that an enormous number of jobs must be found in developing countries by the end of the century, estimated at 500 million more. The economic implications of increasing urbanization in the developing world are explored, and it is noted that Asia, Latin America, and Africa now face the prospect of having to feed as many as 800 million more urbanites by the year 2000. Also, rural population will also continue to grow, and whether agricultural resources can be increased to what extent and how is a critical question. It is concluded that no matter how agriculture is improved or jobs found in developing countries, many will be poorly nourished, badly housed, and inadequately educated. It is finally suggested that by 2000 the Third World as such will no longer exist; instead the world will consist of older developed countries; rapidly developing countries; middle-income countries; oil-surplus countries; and still poor countries, with a movement toward a constantly more diversified echelon of socioeconomic levels of development, both among and within countries.

Mortality from contact-related epidemics among indigenous populations in Greater Amazonia

PubMed Central

Walker, Robert S.; Sattenspiel, Lisa; Hill, Kim R.

2015-01-01

European expansion and contact with indigenous populations led to catastrophic depopulation primarily through the introduction of novel infectious diseases to which native peoples had limited exposure and immunity. In the Amazon Basin such contacts continue to occur with more than 50 isolated indigenous societies likely to make further contacts with the outside world in the near future. Ethnohistorical accounts are useful for quantifying trends in the severity and frequency of epidemics through time and may provide insight into the likely demographic consequences of future contacts. Here we compile information for 117 epidemics that affected 59 different indigenous societies in Greater Amazonia and caused over 11,000 deaths between 1875 and 2008, mostly (75%) from measles, influenza, and malaria. Results show that mortality rates from epidemics decline exponentially through time and, independently, with time since peaceful contact. The frequency of documented epidemics also decreases with time since contact. While previous work on virgin soil epidemics generally emphasizes the calamity of contacts, we focus instead on improvements through time. The prospects for better survivorship during future contacts are good provided modern health care procedures are implemented immediately. PMID:26354026

[The fear of numbers or the challenge of population growth?].

PubMed

Loriaux, M

1991-12-01

Africa, currently one of the least densely populated continents, is growing so rapidly that its population will comprise some 1.5 billion inhabitants around 2020, and Africans will be more numerous than the population of the developed world. Attitudes about Africa's population size vary widely; many educated Africans believe that low density is a greater disadvantage than overpopulation, but most specialists believe the population of the developing world, and of Africa especially, to be too large, the prospects of significant voluntary reduction are dim. The rate of population growth has thus attracted attention as a factor amenable to modification. Africa's demographic transition remains largely in the future. Its case is unique because of the rate of demographic growth and because the phase of rapid growth will apparently continue far longer in Africa than in any other continent. The widening gap between population growth rates and rates of economic development in Africa inspires great pessimism about the future wellbeing of the population. Population officials urge that demographic growth be slowed in order to reduce pressure on economic and ecological resources and to gain time for social and economic development. But despite the consensus of international organizations, such as the UN Fund for Population, on the desirability of slowing population growth to encourage and permit economic growth, there has actually been relatively little progress since the time of Malthus in understanding the relationship between population, development, and the environment. Some recent works suggest that demographic growth has benefits as well as disadvantages, and the net impact on development is uncertain. Demographic pressure is in this view a far more potent force for innovation than is usually recognized. Population is not just an exogenous variable in development, but it is at the heart of the process. There can be no true integration of population into development until the value of human resources everywhere is reaffirmed. The recognition by international organizations that per capita income or other economic indicators alone are not adequate measures of progress is a favorable sign. The failure of structural adjustment programs to attain their stated goals and the new resolve to lessen their effects on the most vulnerable population sectors are also promising. New orientations toward development in which human resources are given greater prominence may be as ideologically inspired as those they replaced, but they have the merit of greater neutrality concerning the content and form of development and they do not accept the process of development in the West as their sole reference.

Genome elimination: translating basic research into a future tool for plant breeding.

PubMed

Comai, Luca

2014-06-01

During the course of our history, humankind has been through different periods of agricultural improvement aimed at enhancing our food supply and the performance of food crops. In recent years, it has become apparent that future crop improvement efforts will require new approaches to address the local challenges of farmers while empowering discovery across industry and academia. New plant breeding approaches are needed to meet this challenge to help feed a growing world population. Here I discuss how a basic research discovery is being translated into a potential future tool for plant breeding, and share the story of researcher Simon Chan, who recognized the potential application of this new approach--genome elimination--for the breeding of staple food crops in Africa and South America.

New Futures for Comparative Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Butts, R. Freeman

1973-01-01

Author considered the future of comparative education in terms of four interrelated worlds of discourse'', the world of new nations, crises in old nations, the world of scholarship, and the professional world of teacher education. (Author/RK)

The world outlook for conventional agriculture. More emphasis is needed on farm price policy and plant research if future world food needs are to be met.

PubMed

Brown, L R

1967-11-03

1) The worldwide demand for food will continue to be strong in the coming decades. Two forces-rapidly growing population and, in much of the world, rapidly rising incomes-are expected to result in increases in the demand for food even more rapid than those that have occurred during the past. 2) Conventional agriculture has assured an adequate food supply for the economically advanced one-third of the world. The challenge now is to assure an adequate food supply for the remaining two-thirds, where population is now increasing at the rate of 1 million people per week and where malnutrition is already widespread. 3) Economically feasible prospects for significantly expanding the world's area of cultivated land in the 1960's and 1970's are limited and largely confined to sub-Saharan Africa and the Amazon Basin. Even here, agronomic problems will limit the rate of expansion. When the cost of desalting seawater is substantially reduced-probably not before the late 1970's or early 1980's at best-it may become feasible to irrigate large areas of desert. 4) Given the limited possibilities for expanding the area of land under cultivation, most of the increases in world food needs must be met, for the foreseeable future, by raising the productivity of land already under cultivation. Food output per acre, rather static throughout most of history, has begun to increase rapidly in some of the more advanced countries in recent decades. All of the increases in food production over the past quarter century in North America, western Europe, and Japan have come from increasing the productivity of land already under cultivation. The area under cultivation has actually declined. 5) Achieving dramatic gains in land productivity requires a massive investment of capital and the widespread adoption of new technology. A similar effort must now be made in the less-developed nations if these nations are to feed their people. The most important single factor influencing this rate of investment is food prices, more particularly the relationship between the price farmers receive for their food products and the cost of modern inputs such as fertilizer. 6) In some of the more-developed countries where per-acre yields have been rising for a long time, there is now evidence that the rate of yield increase may be slowing. Nonrecurring inputs may have made their maximum contribution to output in the case of some crops, pushing yield levels past the middle of the S-shaped logistic curve. Although this cannot be determined with any certainty, the possibility that the middle of the curve has been passed in some instances should be taken into account in viewing the long-term future. 7) If the rate of increase in yield per acre does in fact begin to slow in some of the agriculturally advanced countries, additional pressure will be put on the less-developed countries-which have much of the world's unrealized food-production potential-to meet the continuing future increases in world food needs. 8) Man has not yet been able to bypass the process of photosynthesis in the production of food. This dependence on photosynthesis plays a significant role in determining the upper levels of the S-shaped yield curve. Additional research is urgently needed to increase the photosynthetic efficiency of crops and to raise the upper levels of economically feasible yields.

Sexually transmissible infections among female sex workers: an international review with an emphasis on hard-to-access populations.

PubMed

Cwikel, Julie G; Lazer, Tal; Press, Fernanda; Lazer, Simcha

2008-03-01

Women who work commercially in sex work (female sex workers [FSW]) are considered a high-risk group for sexually transmissible infections (STI), yet the level of reported pathogens varies in studies around the world. This study reviewed STI rates reported in 42 studies of FSW around the world published between 1995 and 2006 and analysed the trends and types of populations surveyed, emphasising difficult to access FSW populations. Studies were retrieved by PUBMED and other search engines and were included if two or more pathogens were studied and valid laboratory methods were reported. The five most commonly assessed pathogens were Neisseria gonorrhea (prevalence 0.5-41.3), Chlamydia trachomatis (0.61-46.2), Treponema pallidum (syphilis; 1.5-60.5), HIV (0-76.6), and Trichomonas vaginalis (trichomoniasis; 0.11-51.0). Neisseria gonorrhea and C. trachomatis were the most commonly tested pathogens and high prevalence levels were found in diverse areas of the world. HIV was highly prevalent mostly in African countries. Although human papillomavirus infection was surveyed in few studies, prevalence rates were very high and its aetiological role in cervical cancer warrant its inclusion in future FSW monitoring. Hard-to-access FSW groups tended to have higher rates of STI. The five most commonly detected pathogens correspond to those that are highly prevalent in the general population, however there is an urgent need to develop rapid testing diagnostics for all five pathogens to increase prevention and treatment, especially in outreach programs to the most vulnerable groups among FSW.

Predicting Virtual World User Population Fluctuations with Deep Learning

PubMed Central

Park, Nuri; Zhang, Qimeng; Kim, Jun Gi; Kang, Shin Jin; Kim, Chang Hun

2016-01-01

This paper proposes a system for predicting increases in virtual world user actions. The virtual world user population is a very important aspect of these worlds; however, methods for predicting fluctuations in these populations have not been well documented. Therefore, we attempt to predict changes in virtual world user populations with deep learning, using easily accessible online data, including formal datasets from Google Trends, Wikipedia, and online communities, as well as informal datasets collected from online forums. We use the proposed system to analyze the user population of EVE Online, one of the largest virtual worlds. PMID:27936009

Predicting Virtual World User Population Fluctuations with Deep Learning.

PubMed

Kim, Young Bin; Park, Nuri; Zhang, Qimeng; Kim, Jun Gi; Kang, Shin Jin; Kim, Chang Hun

2016-01-01

This paper proposes a system for predicting increases in virtual world user actions. The virtual world user population is a very important aspect of these worlds; however, methods for predicting fluctuations in these populations have not been well documented. Therefore, we attempt to predict changes in virtual world user populations with deep learning, using easily accessible online data, including formal datasets from Google Trends, Wikipedia, and online communities, as well as informal datasets collected from online forums. We use the proposed system to analyze the user population of EVE Online, one of the largest virtual worlds.

A panel of ancestry informative markers to estimate and correct potential effects of population stratification in Han Chinese.

PubMed

Qin, Pengfei; Li, Zhiqiang; Jin, Wenfei; Lu, Dongsheng; Lou, Haiyi; Shen, Jiawei; Jin, Li; Shi, Yongyong; Xu, Shuhua

2014-02-01

Population stratification acts as a confounding factor in genetic association studies and may lead to false-positive or false-negative results. Previous studies have analyzed the genetic substructures in Han Chinese population, the largest ethnic group in the world comprising ∼20% of the global human population. In this study, we examined 5540 Han Chinese individuals with about 1 million single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and screened a panel of ancestry informative markers (AIMs) to facilitate the discerning and controlling of population structure in future association studies on Han Chinese. Based on genome-wide data, we first confirmed our previous observation of the north-south differentiation in Han Chinese population. Second, we developed a panel of 150 validated SNP AIMs to determine the northern or southern origin of each Han Chinese individual. We further evaluated the performance of our AIMs panel in association studies in simulation analysis. Our results showed that this AIMs panel had sufficient power to discern and control population stratification in Han Chinese, which could significantly reduce false-positive rates in both genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and candidate gene association studies (CGAS). We suggest this AIMs panel be genotyped and used to control and correct population stratification in the study design or data analysis of future association studies, especially in CGAS which is the most popular approach to validate previous reports on genetic associations of diseases in post-GWAS era.

The Global Society will need commodities; how do we prepare for the future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leahy, P. Patrick

2016-04-01

The global population currently stands at approximately 7 billion and is expected to increase to between 8.3 and 10.9 billion by 2050. To put this into perspective, today's global population is triple what it was in 1950. Commodities are required for healthy societies, for robust economies and to raise living standards in the developing world. With major increases the population particularly in nations with emerging economies, the demand for commodities such as water, energy and minerals will significantly increase during the next several decades. Among the concerns are clean and available freshwater, expanded energy sources from natural gas and nuclear to renewable energy, and emerging needs for specialty materials that are needed for advanced technology to expanded use of more conventional minerals for agriculture and commerce. The developing world may have the greatest need for these commodities and also be the source of many of them. At the conclusion of the International Year of Planet Earth, a small group was formed to assess the need for a major scientific effort in the geosciences. Under the auspices of the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS), the strategic initiatives group met and a broad initiative entitled 'Resourcing Future Generations' (RFG) that was designed to implement a scientific strategy to address the increasing demand for commodities over the next 25 years. The initiative focused on water resources, energy and minerals. The group felt strongly that the minerals component should be the initial emphasis and hoped that other global scientific organizations like IUGS would embrace the water and energy themes. Since this initial effort a number of workshops and presentations have been made including China, the International Geological Congress in Brisbane, the Davos Summit, Berlin, and Namibia amongst others. The strategic initiative planning group identifies 4 challenges to meeting future global mineral needs which are improved understanding of demand, discovery, extraction and social impact. RFG-Minerals consists of 4 major components: (1)understanding supply and demand, (2) gaining better knowledge of the subsurface, (3) improving technologies to safely and efficiently extract resources and (4) building social support and capacity in the developing world. This is ambitious effort that will require broad global collaboration across academia, government and industry.

The World Health Organization Global Health Emergency Workforce: What Role Will the United States Play?

PubMed

Burkle, Frederick M

2016-08-01

During the May 2016 World Health Assembly of 194 member states, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced the process of developing and launching emergency medical teams as a critical component of the global health workforce concept. Over 64 countries have either launched or are in the development stages of vetting accredited teams, both international and national, to provide surge support to national health systems through WHO Regional Organizations and the delivery of emergency clinical care to sudden-onset disasters and outbreak-affected populations. To date, the United States has not yet committed to adopting the emergency medical team concept in funding and registering an international field hospital level team. This article discusses future options available for health-related nongovernmental organizations and the required educational and training requirements for health care provider accreditation. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:531-535).

Forecasting Cause-Specific Mortality in Korea up to Year 2032.

PubMed

Yun, Jae-Won; Son, Mia

2016-08-01

Forecasting cause-specific mortality can help estimate the future burden of diseases and provide a clue for preventing diseases. Our objective was to forecast the mortality for causes of death in the future (2013-2032) based on the past trends (1983-2012) in Korea. The death data consisted of 12 major causes of death from 1983 to 2012 and the population data consisted of the observed and estimated populations (1983-2032) in Korea. The modified age-period-cohort model with an R-based program, nordpred software, was used to forecast future mortality. Although the age-standardized rates for the world standard population for both sexes are expected to decrease from 2008-2012 to 2028-2032 (males: -31.4%, females: -32.3%), the crude rates are expected to increase (males: 46.3%, females: 33.4%). The total number of deaths is also estimated to increase (males: 52.7%, females: 41.9%). Additionally, the largest contribution to the overall change in deaths was the change in the age structures. Several causes of death are projected to increase in both sexes (cancer, suicide, heart diseases, pneumonia and Alzheimer's disease), while others are projected to decrease (cerebrovascular diseases, liver diseases, diabetes mellitus, traffic accidents, chronic lower respiratory diseases, and pulmonary tuberculosis). Cancer is expected to be the highest cause of death for both the 2008-2012 and 2028-2032 time periods in Korea. To reduce the disease burden, projections of the future cause-specific mortality should be used as fundamental data for developing public health policies.

Cultural responses to climate change during the late Holocene.

PubMed

deMenocal, P B

2001-04-27

Modern complex societies exhibit marked resilience to interannual-to- decadal droughts, but cultural responses to multidecadal-to-multicentury droughts can only be addressed by integrating detailed archaeological and paleoclimatic records. Four case studies drawn from New and Old World civilizations document societal responses to prolonged drought, including population dislocations, urban abandonment, and state collapse. Further study of past cultural adaptations to persistent climate change may provide valuable perspective on possible responses of modern societies to future climate change.

Food security: crops for people not for cars.

PubMed

Kullander, Sven

2010-05-01

Humankind is currently faced with the huge challenge of securing a sustainable energy supply and biofuels constitute one of the major options. However, the commercially traded edible crops are barely sufficient to meet food demand of the present world population. Certain regions, for example EU-27, do not even have a sufficient indigenous crop production. Of this follows that motor biofuels based on edible crops should be avoided. To replace more than some percent of the fossil motor fuels, non-edible biomass-rest products and wastes-should instead be considered for conversion to biofuels. In this way, about 10% of the current fossil fuels can be replaced. Feeding a world population expected to grow by some 50% during the next 50 years will be a major challenge. For environmental reasons it seems that agricultural land cannot be expanded very much, maybe not at all. The solution to the increasing food demand seems therefore to be using the present crop production more efficiently and increasing output from present agricultural land, maintaining biodiversity and climate stability within reasonable limits. In the future, agriculture will need more energy and more water irrigation. Food production is, however, already very energy demanding, requiring several times more externally provided energy than the energy content of the food itself. A sufficient energy supply will be a key issue for the future farming!

What We Do and Do Not Know About Women and Kidney Diseases; Questions Unanswered and Answers Unquestioned: Reflection on World Kidney Day and International Woman’s Day

PubMed Central

Piccoli, Giorgina B.; Alrukhaimi, Mona; Liu, Zhi-Hong; Zakharova, Elena; Levin, Adeera

2018-01-01

Background: Chronic kidney disease affects approximately 10% of the world’s adult population: It is within the top 20 causes of death worldwide, and its impact on patients and their families can be devastating. World Kidney Day and International Women’s Day in 2018 coincide, thus giving an occasion to reflect on open questions on the importance of kidney health in women for the present and the future generations. Objectives: In this review, we summarize some aspects that are unique to women’s kidney health, offering an opportunity to reflect on the importance of women’s health and specifically their kidney health, on the community, and the next generations, as well as to strive to be more curious about the unique aspects of kidney disease in women so that we may apply those learnings more broadly. Findings: Girls and women, who make up approximately 50% of the world’s population, are important contributors to society and their families. Gender differences continue to exist around the world in access to education, medical care, and participation in clinical studies. Pregnancy is not only a unique state for women, offering an opportunity for diagnosis of kidney disease, but also a state where acute and chronic kidney diseases may manifest, and which may impact future generations with respect to kidney health. There are various autoimmune and other conditions that are more likely to impact women with profound consequences for childbearing, and on the fetus. Women have different complications on dialysis than men, and are more likely to be donors than recipients of kidney transplants. Conclusion: Improving knowledge on women, kidney health, and kidney disease, may be a way to improve outcomes of kidney diseases worldwide. PMID:29552348

Stakeholder assessment of comparative effectiveness research needs for Medicaid populations.

PubMed

Fischer, Michael A; Allen-Coleman, Cora; Farrell, Stephen F; Schneeweiss, Sebastian

2015-09-01

Patients, providers and policy-makers rely heavily on comparative effectiveness research (CER) when making complex, real-world medical decisions. In particular, Medicaid providers and policy-makers face unique challenges in decision-making because their program cares for traditionally underserved populations, especially children, pregnant women and people with mental illness. Because these patient populations have generally been underrepresented in research discussions, CER questions for these groups may be understudied. To address this problem, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality commissioned our team to work with Medicaid Medical Directors and other stakeholders to identify relevant CER questions. Through an iterative process of topic identification and refinement, we developed relevant, feasible and actionable questions based on issues affecting Medicaid programs nationwide. We describe challenges and limitations and provide recommendations for future stakeholder engagement.

Stakeholder assessment of comparative effectiveness research needs for Medicaid populations

PubMed Central

Fischer, Michael A; Allen-Coleman, Cora; Farrell, Stephen F; Schneeweiss, Sebastian

2015-01-01

Patients, providers and policy-makers rely heavily on comparative effectiveness research (CER) when making complex, real-world medical decisions. In particular, Medicaid providers and policy-makers face unique challenges in decision-making because their program cares for traditionally underserved populations, especially children, pregnant women and people with mental illness. Because these patient populations have generally been underrepresented in research discussions, CER questions for these groups may be understudied. To address this problem, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality commissioned our team to work with Medicaid Medical Directors and other stakeholders to identify relevant CER questions. Through an iterative process of topic identification and refinement, we developed relevant, feasible and actionable questions based on issues affecting Medicaid programs nationwide. We describe challenges and limitations and provide recommendations for future stakeholder engagement. PMID:26388438

Unfolding epidemiological stories: how the WHO made frozen blood into a flexible resource for the future.

PubMed

Radin, Joanna

2014-09-01

In the decades after World War II, the World Health Organization (WHO) played an important role in managing the process of stabilizing collections of variable blood samples as a fundamentally unstable, protean, and unfolding biomedical resource. In this system, known and as yet unknown constituents of blood were positioned as relevant to the work of multiple constituencies including human population geneticists, physical anthropologists, and immunologists. To facilitate serving these and other constituencies, it was crucial to standardize practices of collecting and preserving samples of blood from globally distributed human populations. The WHO achieved this by linking its administrative infrastructure-comprised of expert advisory groups and technical reports-to key laboratories, which served as sites for demonstrating and also for disseminating standards for working with variable blood samples. The practices that were articulated in making blood samples into a flexible resource contributes to emerging histories of global health that highlight the centrality of new institutions, like the WHO, new forms of expertise, like population genetics and serological epidemiology, and new kinds of research materials, like frozen blood. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vampire Bat Rabies: Ecology, Epidemiology and Control

PubMed Central

Johnson, Nicholas; Aréchiga-Ceballos, Nidia; Aguilar-Setien, Alvaro

2014-01-01

Extensive surveillance in bat populations in response to recent emerging diseases has revealed that this group of mammals acts as a reservoir for a large range of viruses. However, the oldest known association between a zoonotic virus and a bat is that between rabies virus and the vampire bat. Vampire bats are only found in Latin America and their unique method of obtaining nutrition, blood-feeding or haematophagy, has only evolved in the New World. The adaptations that enable blood-feeding also make the vampire bat highly effective at transmitting rabies virus. Whether the virus was present in pre-Columbian America or was introduced is much disputed, however, the introduction of Old World livestock and associated landscape modification, which continues to the present day, has enabled vampire bat populations to increase. This in turn has provided the conditions for rabies re-emergence to threaten both livestock and human populations as vampire bats target large mammals. This review considers the ecology of the vampire bat that make it such an efficient vector for rabies, the current status of vampire-transmitted rabies and the future prospects for spread by this virus and its control. PMID:24784570

The role of farming and rural development as central to our diets.

PubMed

Fanzo, Jessica

2018-05-21

Farming and rural development are central to the diversity of global food systems and diets, both significant factors in determining the nutrition and health outcomes of the world's population. Diets are not static and indeed are changing due to globalization, urbanization and demographic shifts. In addition, multiple burdens of malnutrition (both undernutrition and overweight and obesity) are not improving fast enough and in some cases, reversing for the worse. Unhealthy diets are major contributors to these burdens. Rural people and particularly smallholder farmers, are critical in delivering the key nutrients in the global food supply that make up our diets for human health. However, rural populations in some parts of the world are often poor, and suffer burdens of malnutrition on both ends of the spectrum - undernourished or overweight. They are also faced with significant challenges, often due to poor investment towards rural development. Challenges include natural resource declines, climate change risk, women disempowerment, conflict, and urbanization; which wreak havoc on these populations. If actions are not taken and their livelihoods are not prioritized, it will be a challenge to achieve sustainable development in these rural places that are so essential for future food systems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Potential Futures for Information.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ackermann, Mark R.

Information is one of the most powerful tools available today. All advances in technology may be used, as David Sarnoff said, for the benefit or harm of society. Information can be used to shape the future by free people, or used to control people by less than benevolent governments, as has been demonstrated since the mid - 1930s, and with growing frequency over the past 50 years. What promised to once set people free and fuel an industrial revolution that might improve the standard of living over most of the world, has also been used to manipulate and enslave entiremore » populations. The future of information is tied to the future of technologies that support the collection of data, processing those data into information and knowledge, and distribution. Technologies supporting the future of information must include technologies that help protect the integrity of data and information, and help to guarantee its discoverability and appropriate availability -- often to the whole of society. This Page Intentionally Left Blank« less

Earth support systems: Threatened? why? what can we do?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reitan, Paul H.; Reitan, Eric H.

2001-12-01

The most important concept to emerge in the 20th century was the recognition that sustainability is threatened. A sustainable society is one that functions and lives in such harmony with earth systems that future generations will be able to function with equal or greater ease and the quality of life will in no way be diminished. Evidence of threats to sustainability is found in: global energy use; global climate change; availability of sufficient safe water; degradation of soil on agricultural lands; food production for a global population of 9,000 million by 2050; accelerated extinction rates and loss of biodiversity; human under- and over-nourishment; and the spread of diseases. Ignorance borne of alienation from nature deprives us of sensitivity to the threats human activities cause. Alienation may be traced to the agricultural revolution, but has become widespread and even inescapable for many with massive control of energy and the industrial revolution, dependence on machines, and urbanization. With the control of enough energy to dominate nature and the achievement of a high, but transient, level of wealth, a world view extolling growth—led by the highly industrialized nations, but now being emulated in the developing countries—has committed the world to an unsustainable path. Because of this, world societies must work to find practical “sustainability” world views to help guide our future choices. Wise choices will depend upon good scientific understanding and must be based upon a deep respect for the non-human world and a concern for the future. The environmental meaning of different world views, whether founded in the world religions or in nonreligious philosophy, share a common concern to promote an equitable, harmonious, and sustainable relationship between humanity and nature. The similarities in pragmatic meaning in relation to nature of, e.g., Christian stewardship and Deep Ecology, illustrate this. Our attention must not be directed towards alternative symbolic or linguistic vocabularies, but toward the practical environmental commitments that different world views entail. Our problems have global reach and many of them are urgent, but they are not intrinsically unsolvable. We must seek ways to find and use common ground in the search for sustainability. We must work together, but remember that each of us contributes to the final outcome.

Addressing psychosocial issues in cancer survivorship: past, present and future.

PubMed

Walsh, Katherine

2016-12-01

With a burgeoning population of cancer survivors, organizations in the USA and around the world are considering how to address the many long-term and late psychosocial effects of cancer and cancer treatment. This article reviews the changing landscape of survivorship care over the past 50 years, from the time when there were relatively few survivors to the future, when the number of cancer survivors in the USA alone is expected to reach close to 20 million. Institute of Medicine Reports, intra-organizational summits and accrediting standards that have influenced the development of survivorship care plans and programs and the roles of the Internet and smartphone applications along with oncology specialist and primary care providers are discussed.

Smart investments in sustainable food production: revisiting mixed crop-livestock systems.

PubMed

Herrero, M; Thornton, P K; Notenbaert, A M; Wood, S; Msangi, S; Freeman, H A; Bossio, D; Dixon, J; Peters, M; van de Steeg, J; Lynam, J; Parthasarathy Rao, P; Macmillan, S; Gerard, B; McDermott, J; Seré, C; Rosegrant, M

2010-02-12

Farmers in mixed crop-livestock systems produce about half of the world's food. In small holdings around the world, livestock are reared mostly on grass, browse, and nonfood biomass from maize, millet, rice, and sorghum crops and in their turn supply manure and traction for future crops. Animals act as insurance against hard times and supply farmers with a source of regular income from sales of milk, eggs, and other products. Thus, faced with population growth and climate change, small-holder farmers should be the first target for policies to intensify production by carefully managed inputs of fertilizer, water, and feed to minimize waste and environmental impact, supported by improved access to markets, new varieties, and technologies.

Is the risk of Alzheimer's disease and dementia declining?

PubMed

Langa, Kenneth M

2015-01-01

The number of older adults with dementia will increase around the world in the decades ahead as populations age. Current estimates suggest that about 4.2 million adults in the US have dementia and that the attributable economic cost of their care is about $200 billion per year. The worldwide dementia prevalence is estimated at 44.3 million people and the total cost at $604 billion per year. It is expected that the worldwide prevalence will triple to 135.5 million by 2050. However, a number of recent population-based studies from countries around the world suggest that the age-specific risk of dementia may be declining, which could help moderate the expected increase in dementia cases that will accompany the growing number of older adults. At least nine recent population-based studies of dementia incidence or prevalence have shown a declining age-specific risk in the US, England, The Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark. A number of factors, especially rising levels of education and more aggressive treatment of key cardiovascular risk factors such as hypertension and hypercholesterolemia, may be leading to improving 'brain health' and declining age-specific risk of Alzheimer's disease and dementia in countries around the world. Multiple epidemiological studies from around the world suggest an optimistic trend of declining population dementia risk in high-income countries over the past 25 years. Rising levels of education and more widespread and successful treatment of key cardiovascular risk factors may be the driving factors accounting for this decline in dementia risk. Whether this optimistic trend will continue in the face of rising worldwide levels of obesity and diabetes and whether this trend is also occurring in low- and middle-income countries are key unanswered questions which will have enormous implications for the extent of the future worldwide impact of Alzheimer's disease and dementia on patients, families, and societies in the decades ahead.

ARPA-E: Celebrating the Energy Entrepreneur

ScienceCinema

Williams, Ellen; Henshall, Dave; Babinec, Sue; Wessells, Colin; Zakhor, Avideh; Mockler, Todd

2018-01-16

The world faces urgent energy challenges brought on by projected population increases, aging infrastructure and the global threat of climate change. ARPA-E is investing in some of the country’s brightest energy entrepreneurs that are developing innovative technological options to help meet future energy needs. Featuring remarks from ARPA-E Director Dr. Ellen D. Williams, as well as interviews with the Deputy Director of Commercialization Dave Henshall, Senior Technology-to-Market Advisor Sue Babinec, and a number of ARPA-E awardees, this video highlights the energy entrepreneur, and the critical role they play in creating solutions to address future energy challenges and ensure a secure energy future. The video also incorporates footage shot on site with several ARPA-E awardees who are spurring innovation, much of which will be highlighted in other videos shown throughout the Summit.

ARPA-E: Celebrating the Energy Entrepreneur

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Ellen; Henshall, Dave; Babinec, Sue

The world faces urgent energy challenges brought on by projected population increases, aging infrastructure and the global threat of climate change. ARPA-E is investing in some of the country’s brightest energy entrepreneurs that are developing innovative technological options to help meet future energy needs. Featuring remarks from ARPA-E Director Dr. Ellen D. Williams, as well as interviews with the Deputy Director of Commercialization Dave Henshall, Senior Technology-to-Market Advisor Sue Babinec, and a number of ARPA-E awardees, this video highlights the energy entrepreneur, and the critical role they play in creating solutions to address future energy challenges and ensure a securemore » energy future. The video also incorporates footage shot on site with several ARPA-E awardees who are spurring innovation, much of which will be highlighted in other videos shown throughout the Summit.« less

UN food summit tries to focus world attention on hunger.

PubMed

Scommegna, P

1996-11-01

This article discusses the November 1996 World Food Summit in Rome, women's role as food producers, overconsumption, and justification for a world conference focus. The Summit was planned by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization and is to focus on how to provide people with food security and how to keep pace with growing needs without causing environmental damage. The Summit takes place during a time when 841 million of the world population are chronically undernourished, of which 200 million are children. Millions more suffer from contaminated food and water, micronutrient deficiencies, and blindness due to lack of vitamin A. Agricultural production in 88 countries is deficient. These countries cannot produce enough food to feed their populations an adequate diet and cannot afford to import needed food. These countries include China, India, and most of sub-Saharan Africa. World grain stocks have dropped to low levels, export prices for cereals have risen, and the world fish harvest has leveled off. Over the next 50 years the world must raise food for about 4 billion more people with a limited supply of land and uneven water resources. African countries must increase food production by 300%, Latin America by 80%, Asia by 69%, and North America by 30%. The former strategy of increasing yields with fertilizers is no longer effective and there is no other alternative. In developing countries women are the main producers of food for the family. Future policies must recognize women's role in food production. Poverty would decrease and food supplies increase if poor women were given access to credit and technical advice, education and health care, and a place in the center of the world agenda for increasing food productivity. The global food system is inequitably concentrated among few, and the food trade is increasingly controlled by multinationals. Overconsumption is as serious a problem as overpopulation.

Health and ecological sustainability in the Arab world: a matter of survival

PubMed Central

El-Zein, Abbas; Jabbour, Samer; Tekce, Belgin; Zurayk, Huda; Nuwayhid, Iman; Khawaja, Marwan; Tell, Tariq; Mooji, Yusuf Al; De-Jong, Jocelyn; Yassin, Nasser; Hogan, Dennis

2014-01-01

Discussions leading to the Rio+20 UN conference have emphasised the importance of sustainable development and the protection of the environment for future generations. The Arab world faces large-scale threats to its sustainable development and, most of all, to the viability and existence of the ecological systems for its human settlements. The dynamics of population change, ecological degradation, and resource scarcity, and development policies and practices, all occurring in complex and highly unstable geopolitical and economic environments, are fostering the poor prospects. In this report, we discuss the most pertinent population–environment–development dynamics in the Arab world, and the two-way interactions between these dynamics and health, on the basis of current data. We draw attention to trends that are relevant to health professionals and researchers, but emphasise that the dynamics generating these trends have implications that go well beyond health. We argue that the current discourse on health, population, and development in the Arab world has largely failed to convey a sense of urgency, when the survival of whole communities is at stake. The dismal ecological and development records of Arab countries over the past two decades call for new directions. We suggest that regional ecological integration around exchange of water, energy, food, and labour, though politically difficult to achieve, offers the best hope to improve the adaptive capacity of individual Arab nations. The transformative political changes taking place in the Arab world offer promise, indeed an imperative, for such renewal. We call on policy makers, researchers, practitioners, and international agencies to emphasise the urgency and take action. PMID:24452051

AEDT: A new concept for ecological dynamics in the ever-changing world.

PubMed

Chesson, Peter

2017-05-01

The important concept of equilibrium has always been controversial in ecology, but a new, more general concept, an asymptotic environmentally determined trajectory (AEDT), overcomes many concerns with equilibrium by realistically incorporating long-term climate change while retaining much of the predictive power of a stable equilibrium. A population or ecological community is predicted to approach its AEDT, which is a function of time reflecting environmental history and biology. The AEDT invokes familiar questions and predictions but in a more realistic context in which consideration of past environments and a future changing profoundly due to human influence becomes possible. Strong applications are also predicted in population genetics, evolution, earth sciences, and economics.

Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century.

PubMed

Nicholls, Robert J; Tol, Richard S J

2006-04-15

Taking the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) climate and socio-economic scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 'future worlds'), the potential impacts of sea-level rise through the twenty-first century are explored using complementary impact and economic analysis methods at the global scale. These methods have never been explored together previously. In all scenarios, the exposure and hence the impact potential due to increased flooding by sea-level rise increases significantly compared to the base year (1990). While mitigation reduces impacts, due to the lagged response of sea-level rise to atmospheric temperature rise, impacts cannot be avoided during the twenty-first century by this response alone. Cost-benefit analyses suggest that widespread protection will be an economically rational response to land loss due to sea-level rise in the four SRES futures that are considered. The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 scenarios, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible. Future worlds which experience larger rises in sea-level than considered here (above 35 cm), more extreme events, a reactive rather than proactive approach to adaptation, and where GDP growth is slower or more unequal than in the SRES futures remain a concern. There is considerable scope for further research to better understand these diverse issues.

Flood Risk and Global Change: Future Prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serra-Llobet, A.

2014-12-01

Global flood risk is increasing in response to population growth in flood-prone areas, human encroachment into natural flood paths (exacerbating flooding in areas formerly out of harm's way), and climate change (which alters variables driving floods). How will societies respond to and manage flood risk in coming decades? Analysis of flood policy evolution in the EU and US demonstrates that changes occurred in steps, in direct response to disasters. After the flood produced by the collapse of Tous Dam in 1982, Spain initiated a systematic assessment of areas of greatest flood risk and civil protection response. The devastating floods on the Elbe and elsewhere in central Europe in 2002 motivated adoption of the EU Floods Directive (2007), which requires member states to develop systematic flood risk maps (now due) and flood risk management plans (due in 2015). The flooding of New Orleans by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 resulted in a nationwide levee-safety assessment and improvements in communicating risk, but overall less fundamental change in US flood management than manifest in the EU since 2007. In the developing world, large (and increasing) concentrations of populations in low-lying floodplains, deltas, and coasts are increasingly vulnerable, and governments mostly ill-equipped to implement fundamental changes in land use to prevent future increases in exposure, nor to develop responses to the current threats. Even in the developed world, there is surprisingly little research on how well residents of flood-prone lands understand their true risk, especially when they are 'protected' by '100-year' levees. Looking ahead, researchers and decision makers should prioritize improvements in flood risk perception, river-basin-scale assessment of flood runoff processes (under current and future climate and land-use conditions) and flood management alternatives, and bridging the disconnect between national and international floodplain management policies and local land-use decisions.

The future liver of the Asia pacific: fatter and firmer from more fructose and fortune?

PubMed

Mahady, Suzanne E; George, Jacob

2013-06-01

The Asia Pacific region is the most diverse and the most populous region in the world. Recent socioeconomic changes have resulted in an emerging epidemic of non-communicable diseases such as type 2 diabetes and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. The prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in Asian Pacific countries now approximates that seen in Western countries. This increase is fueled by rising obesity, partly due to adoption of Western style diets and exposure to compounds such as high fructose corn syrup that are not included in traditional diets. Furthermore, South Asian populations may be more genetically susceptible via the inheritance of polymorphisms in apolipoprotein 3 that increase insulin resistance and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. Importantly, there remains a substantial lack of data on the incidence and natural history of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and subsequent complications such as hepatocellular carcinoma in Asian Pacific populations. This information gap prevents estimation of current and future disease burden and impedes efforts to lobby health policymakers to improve public health measures, as given the size of Asian Pacific populations, prevention rather than treatment of non-communicable diseases remains key. This review article addresses these issues and highlights research priorities for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease within the Asia Pacific region.

Projecting optimal land-use and -management strategies under population growth and climate change using a coupled ecosystem & land use model framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabin, Sam; Alexander, Peter; Anthoni, Peter; Henry, Roslyn; Huntingford, Chris; Pugh, Thomas; Rounsevell, Mark; Arneth, Almut

2017-04-01

A major question facing humanity is how well agricultural production systems will be able to feed the world in a future of rapid climate change, population growth, and demand shifts—all while minimizing our impact on the natural world. Global modeling has frequently been used to investigate certain aspects of this question, but in order to properly address the challenge, no one part of the human-environmental system can be assessed in isolation. It is especially critical that the effect on agricultural yields of changing temperature and precipitation regimes (including seasonal timing and frequency and intensity of extreme events), as well as rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, be taken into account when planning for future food security. Coupled modeling efforts, where changes in various parts of the Earth system are allowed to feed back onto one another, represent a powerful strategy in this regard. This presentation describes the structure and initial results of an effort to couple a biologically-representative vegetation and crop production simulator, LPJ-GUESS, with the climate emulator IMOGEN and the land-use model PLUMv2. With IMOGEN providing detailed future weather simulations, LPJ-GUESS simulates natural vegetation as well as cropland and pasture/rangeland; the simulated exchange of greenhouse gases between the land and atmosphere feeds back into IMOGEN's predictions. LPJ-GUESS also produces potential vegetation yields for irrigated vs. rainfed crops under three levels of nitrogen fertilizer addition. PLUMv2 combines these potential yields with endogenous demand and agricultural commodity price to calculate an optimal set of land use distributions and management strategies across the world for the next five years of simulation, based on socio-economic scenario data. These land uses are then fed back into LPJ-GUESS, and the cycle of climate, greenhouse gas emissions, crop yields, and land-use change continues. The globally gridded nature of the model—at 0.5-degree resolution across the world—generates spatially explicit projections at a sub-national scale relevant to individual land managers. Here, we present the results of using the LPJ-GUESS-PLUM-IMOGEN coupled model to project agricultural production and management strategies under several scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (the Representative Concentration Pathways) and socioeconomic futures (the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) through the year 2100. In the future, the coupled model could be used to generate projections for alternative scenarios: for example, to consider the implications from land-based climate change mitigation policies, or changes to international trade tariffs regimes.

Exposure to the World Trade Center Disaster and 9/11-Related Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder and Household Disaster Preparedness.

PubMed

Gargano, Lisa M; Caramanica, Kimberly; Sisco, Sarah; Brackbill, Robert M; Stellman, Steven D

2015-12-01

In a population with prior exposure to the World Trade Center disaster, this study sought to determine the subsequent level of preparedness for a new disaster and how preparedness varied with population characteristics that are both disaster-related and non-disaster-related. The sample included 4496 World Trade Center Health Registry enrollees who completed the Wave 3 (2011-2012) and Hurricane Sandy (2013) surveys. Participants were considered prepared if they reported possessing at least 7 of 8 standard preparedness items. Logistic regression was used to determine associations between preparedness and demographic and medical factors, 9/11-related post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) assessed at Wave 3, 9/11 exposure, and social support. Over one-third (37.5%) of participants were prepared with 18.8% possessing all 8 items. The item most often missing was an evacuation plan (69.8%). Higher levels of social support were associated with being prepared. High levels of 9/11 exposure were associated with being prepared in both the PTSD and non-PTSD subgroups. Our findings indicate that prior 9/11 exposure favorably impacted Hurricane Sandy preparedness. Future preparedness messaging should target people with low social support networks. Communications should include information on evacuation zones and where to find information about how to evacuate.

Expected increase in staple crop imports in water-scarce countries in 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chouchane, Hatem; Krol, Maarten; Hoekstra, Arjen

2017-04-01

Water scarcity is a major challenge in the coming decades. The increasing population and the changing pattern of water availability that results from global warming reduce the potential of sufficient food production in many countries over the world. Today, two thirds of the global population are already living under conditions of severe water scarcity at least one month of the year. This rises the importance of addressing the present and future relationship between water availability and food import in water-scarce countries. The net import of staple crops (barley, cassava, maize, millet and products, oats, potatoes, rice, rye, sorghum, soybeans, sweet potatoes, wheat and yams) is analysed in relation to water availability per capita for the period 1961-2010, considering five decadal averages. The relation found is used together with the low, medium and high population growth scenarios from the United Nations to project the staple crops import in water-scarce countries for the year 2050. Additionally, we investigate the uncertainties related to the three population scenarios. Results will help countries to better understand the impact of population growth and limited water resources on their future food trade. This study will provide a valuable supporting tool for policy makers towards more sustainable and water-efficient food production as targeted with the Sustainable Development Goals. Keywords: Water Availability, Food Import, Staple Crops, Water Scarcity, Water-Use Efficiency, Sustainable Development Goals.

Simulating climate change and socio-economic change impacts on flows and water quality in the Mahanadi River system, India.

PubMed

Jin, Li; Whitehead, Paul G; Rodda, Harvey; Macadam, Ian; Sarkar, Sananda

2018-10-01

Delta systems formed by the deposition of sediments at the mouths of large catchments are vulnerable to sea level rise and other climate change impacts. Deltas often have some of the highest population densities in the world and the Mahanadi Delta in India is one of these, with a population of 39 million. The Mahanadi River is a major river in East Central India and flows through Chattisgarh and Orissa states before discharging into the Bay of Bengal. This study uses an Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) to simulate flow dynamics and water quality (nitrogen and phosphorus) and to analyze the impacts of climate change and socio-economic drivers in the Mahanadi River system. Future flows affected by large population growth, effluent discharge increases and changes in irrigation water demand from changing land uses are assessed under shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Model results indicate a significant increase in monsoon flows under the future climates at 2050s (2041-2060) and 2090s (2079-2098) which greatly enhances flood potential. The water availability under low flow conditions will be worsened because of increased water demand from population growth and increased irrigation in the future. Decreased concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus are expected due to increased flow hence dilution. Socio-economic scenarios have a significant impact on water quality but less impact on the river flow. For example, higher population growth, increased sewage treatment discharges, land use change and enhanced atmospheric deposition would result in the deterioration of water quality, while the upgrade of the sewage treatment works lead to improved water quality. In summary, socio-economic scenarios would change future water quality of the Mahanadi River and alter nutrient fluxes transported into the delta region. This study has serious implications for people's livelihoods in the deltaic area and could impact coastal and Bay of Bengal water ecology. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[The future of scientific libraries].

PubMed

De Fiore, Luca

2013-10-01

"Making predictions is always very difficult, especially about the future". Niels Bohr's quote is very appropriate when looking into the future of libraries. If the Web is now the richest library in the world, it is also the most friendly and therefore the most convenient. The evolution of libraries in the coming years - both traditional and online - will probably depend on their ability to meet the information needs of users: improved ease of use and better reliability of the information. These are objectives that require money and - given the general reduction in budgets - it is not obvious that the results will be achieved. However, there are many promising experiences at the international level that show that the world of libraries is populated by projects and creativity. Traditional or digital, libraries will increasingly present themselves more as a sharing tool than as a repository of information: it is the sharing that translates data into knowledge. In the healthcare field, the integration of online libraries with the epidemiological information systems could favor the fulfillment of unconscious information needs of health personnel; libraries will therefore be a key tool for an integrated answer to the challenge of continuing education in medicine. The Internet is no longer a library but an information ecosystem where the data are transformed into knowledge by sharing and discussion.

Communicating Pacific Rim Risk: A GIS Analysis of Hazard, Vulnerability, Population, and Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yurkovich, E. S.; Howell, D. G.

2002-12-01

Exploding population and unprecedented urban development within the last century helped fuel an increase in the severity of natural disasters. Not only has the world become more populated, but people, information and commodities now travel greater distances to service larger concentrations of people. While many of the earth's natural hazards remain relatively constant, understanding the risk to increasingly interconnected and large populations requires an expanded analysis. To improve mitigation planning we propose a model that is accessible to planners and implemented with public domain data and industry standard GIS software. The model comprises 1) the potential impact of five significant natural hazards: earthquake, flood, tropical storm, tsunami and volcanic eruption assessed by a comparative index of risk, 2) population density, 3) infrastructure distribution represented by a proxy, 4) the vulnerability of the elements at risk (population density and infrastructure distribution) and 5) the connections and dependencies of our increasingly 'globalized' world, portrayed by a relative linkage index. We depict this model with the equation, Risk = f(H, E, V, I) Where H is an index normalizing the impact of five major categories of natural hazards; E is one element at risk, population or infrastructure; V is a measure of the vulnerability for of the elements at risk; and I pertains to a measure of interconnectivity of the elements at risk as a result of economic and social globalization. We propose that future risk analysis include the variable I to better define and quantify risk. Each assessment reflects different repercussions from natural disasters: losses of life or economic activity. Because population and infrastructure are distributed heterogeneously across the Pacific region, two contrasting representations of risk emerge from this study.

Is the Future Really in Algae?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trent, Jonathan

2011-01-01

Having just emerged from the warmest decade on record and watching as the oceans acidify, global resources peak, the world's population continues to climb, and nearly half of all known species face extinction by the end of the century. We stand on the threshold of one of the most important transition in human history-the transition from hunting-and-gathering our energy to cultivating sustainable, carbon-neutral, environmentally-friendly energy supplies. Can we "cultivate" enerm without competing with agriculture for land, freshwater, or fertilizer? Can we develop an "ecology of technology" that optimizes our use of limited resources? Is human activity compatible with improved conditions in the world's oceans? Will our ingenuity prevail in time to make a difference for our children and the children of all species? With support from NASA ARMD and the California Energy Commission, a group of dedicated scientists and engineers are working on a project called OMEGA (Offshore Membrane Enclosures for Growing Algae), to provide practical answers to these critical questions and to leave a legacy of hope for the oceans and for the future.

The ICES Working Group on Zooplankton Ecology: Accomplishments of the first 25 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiebe, Peter H.; Harris, Roger; Gislason, Astthor; Margonski, Piotr; Skjoldal, Hein Rune; Benfield, Mark; Hay, Steve; O'Brien, Todd; Valdés, Luis

2016-02-01

The ICES Study Group on Zooplankton Ecology was created in 1991 to address issues of current and future concern within the field of zooplankton ecology. Within three years it became the ICES Working Group on Zooplankton Ecology (ICES WGZE) and this unique group in the world's oceanographic community has now been active for 25 years. This article reviews and synthesizes the products, and major accomplishments of the group. Achievements of the group, including the Zooplankton Methodology Manual, the Zooplankton Status Reports, and the International Zooplankton Symposia, have had an important impact on the wider field. Among the future issues that remain to be addressed by the group are the assessment of exploratory fisheries on zooplankton and micronekton species; further development of the zooplankton time-series; compilation and integration of allometric relationships for zooplankton species, and evaluation of new methodologies for the study of zooplankton distribution, abundance, physiology, and genetics. Marine science is an increasingly global undertaking and groups such as the ICES WGZE will continue to be essential to the advancement of understanding of zooplankton community structure and population dynamics in the world's oceans.

A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Lei; Lee, Xuhui; Schultz, Natalie M.

2017-07-01

Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs). Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases - cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of -3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071-2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG) warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

World Population: Fundamentals of Growth. Student Chartbook. Third Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kent, Mary Mederios

This booklet is designed for K-12 students and educators to learn about world population growth factors. Data are shown through charts and graphs with brief explanations. The booklet contains: (1) "World Population Growth and Regional Distribution through History"; (2) "Population Growth through Natural Increase"; (3) "Effect of Migration on…

Mission Accomplished? We Need a Guide to the 'Post Release' World of Wolbachia for Aedes-borne Disease Control.

PubMed

Ritchie, Scott A; van den Hurk, Andrew F; Smout, Michael J; Staunton, Kyran M; Hoffmann, Ary A

2018-03-01

Historically, sustained control of Aedes aegypti, the vector of dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika viruses, has been largely ineffective. Subsequently, two novel 'rear and release' control strategies utilizing mosquitoes infected with Wolbachia are currently being developed and deployed widely. In the incompatible insect technique, male Aedes mosquitoes, infected with Wolbachia, suppress populations through unproductive mating. In the transinfection strategy, both male and female Wolbachia-infected Ae. aegypti mosquitoes rapidly infect the wild population with Wolbachia, blocking virus transmission. It is critical to monitor the long-term stability of Wolbachia in host populations, and also the ability of this bacterium to continually inhibit virus transmission. Ongoing release and monitoring programs must be future-proofed should political support weaken when these vectors are successfully controlled. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sustainable diets: harnessing the nutrition agenda.

PubMed

Buttriss, Judith; Riley, Helen

2013-10-01

There has been rapid growth in the global population over the last century and estimates for 2050 are a global population of over 9billion. These mouths need to be fed and the nutritional quality of the food received will be a key determinant of future health. Alongside this expansion in the world's population, rapid economic growth in China, India and South America is increasing demand for protein-rich foods, especially meat and dairy products, causing concern about the impact this may have on green house gas emissions. As economies strengthen and dietary and lifestyle patterns become more westernised, the so-called diseases of affluence are becoming ever more evident, often alongside malnutrition. This paper considers these challenges and the need to embed thinking about nutrition into discussions about sustainability of the food supply. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial quantification of the world population potentially exposed to Zika virus.

PubMed

Alaniz, Alberto J; Bacigalupo, Antonella; Cattan, Pedro E

2017-06-01

Zika virus is an emerging Flaviviridae virus, which has spread rapidly in the last few years. It has raised concern because it has been associated with fetus microcephaly when pregnant women are infected. The main vector is the mosquito Aedes aegypti , distributed in tropical areas. Niche modelling techniques were used to estimate the potential distribution area of A. aegypti. This was overlapped with human population density, determining areas of potential transmission risk worldwide. Afterwards, we quantified the population at risk according to risk level. The vector transmission risk is distributed mainly in Asia and Oceania on the shores of the Indian Ocean. In America, the risk concentrates in the Atlantic coast of South America and in the Caribbean Sea shores in Central and North America. In Africa, the major risk is concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic coasts of Central and South Africa. The world population under high and very high risk levels includes 2.261 billion people. These results illustrate Zika virus risk at the global level and provide maps to target the prevention and control measures especially in areas with higher risk, in countries with less sanitation and poorer resources. Many countries without previous vector reports could become active transmission zones in the future, so vector surveillance should be implemented or reinforced in these areas. © The Author 2017; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

Urban air pollution in megacities of the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mage, David; Ozolins, Guntis; Peterson, Peter; Webster, Anthony; Orthofer, Rudi; Vandeweerd, Veerle; Gwynne, Michael

Urban air pollution is a major environmental problem in the developing countries of the world. WHO and UNEP created an air pollution monitoring network as part of the Global Environment Monitoring System. This network now covers over 50 cities in 35 developing and developed countries throughout the world. The analyses of the data reported by the network over the past 15-20 yr indicate that the lessons of the prior experiences in the developed countries (U.S.A., U.K.) have not been learned. A study of air pollution in 20 of the 24 megacities of the world (over 10 million people by year 2000) shows that ambient air pollution concentrations are at levels where serious health effects are reported. The expected rise of population in the next century, mainly in the developing countries with a lack of capital for air pollution control, means that there is a great potential that conditions will worsen in many more cities that will reach megacity status. This paper maps the potential for air pollution that cities will experience in the future unless control strategies are developed and implemented during the next several decades.

The thermal environment of the human being on the global scale.

PubMed

Jendritzky, Gerd; Tinz, Birger

2009-11-11

The close relationship between human health, performance, well-being and the thermal environment is obvious. Nevertheless, most studies of climate and climate change impacts show amazing shortcomings in the assessment of the environment. Populations living in different climates have different susceptibilities, due to socio-economic reasons, and different customary behavioural adaptations. The global distribution of risks of hazardous thermal exposure has not been analysed before. To produce maps of the baseline and future bioclimate that allows a direct comparison of the differences in the vulnerability of populations to thermal stress across the world. The required climatological data fields are obtained from climate simulations with the global General Circulation Model ECHAM4 in T106-resolution. For the thermo-physiologically relevant assessment of these climate data a complete heat budget model of the human being, the 'Perceived Temperature' procedure has been applied which already comprises adaptation by clothing to a certain degree. Short-term physiological acclimatisation is considered via Health Related Assessment of the Thermal Environment. The global maps 1971-1980 (control run, assumed as baseline climate) show a pattern of thermal stress intensities as frequencies of heat. The heat load for people living in warm-humid climates is the highest. Climate change will lead to clear differences in health-related thermal stress between baseline climate and the future bioclimate 2041-2050 based on the 'business-as-usual' greenhouse gas scenario IS92a. The majority of the world's population will be faced with more frequent and more intense heat strain in spite of an assumed level of acclimatisation. Further adaptation measures are crucial in order to reduce the vulnerability of the populations. This bioclimatology analysis provides a tool for various questions in climate and climate change impact research. Considerations of regional or local scale require climate simulations with higher resolution. As adaptation is the key term in understanding the role of climate/climate change for human health, performance and well-being, further research in this field is crucial.

Forecasting Cause-Specific Mortality in Korea up to Year 2032

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Forecasting cause-specific mortality can help estimate the future burden of diseases and provide a clue for preventing diseases. Our objective was to forecast the mortality for causes of death in the future (2013-2032) based on the past trends (1983-2012) in Korea. The death data consisted of 12 major causes of death from 1983 to 2012 and the population data consisted of the observed and estimated populations (1983-2032) in Korea. The modified age-period-cohort model with an R-based program, nordpred software, was used to forecast future mortality. Although the age-standardized rates for the world standard population for both sexes are expected to decrease from 2008-2012 to 2028-2032 (males: -31.4%, females: -32.3%), the crude rates are expected to increase (males: 46.3%, females: 33.4%). The total number of deaths is also estimated to increase (males: 52.7%, females: 41.9%). Additionally, the largest contribution to the overall change in deaths was the change in the age structures. Several causes of death are projected to increase in both sexes (cancer, suicide, heart diseases, pneumonia and Alzheimer’s disease), while others are projected to decrease (cerebrovascular diseases, liver diseases, diabetes mellitus, traffic accidents, chronic lower respiratory diseases, and pulmonary tuberculosis). Cancer is expected to be the highest cause of death for both the 2008-2012 and 2028-2032 time periods in Korea. To reduce the disease burden, projections of the future cause-specific mortality should be used as fundamental data for developing public health policies. PMID:27478326

Defining Population Health Vulnerability Following an Extreme Weather Event in an Urban Pacific Island Environment: Honiara, Solomon Islands.

PubMed

Natuzzi, Eileen S; Joshua, Cynthia; Shortus, Matthew; Reubin, Reginald; Dalipanda, Tenneth; Ferran, Karen; Aumua, Audrey; Brodine, Stephanie

2016-08-03

Extreme weather events are common and increasing in intensity in the southwestern Pacific region. Health impacts from cyclones and tropical storms cause acute injuries and infectious disease outbreaks. Defining population vulnerability to extreme weather events by examining a recent flood in Honiara, Solomon Islands, can help stakeholders and policymakers adapt development to reduce future threats. The acute and subacute health impacts following the April 2014 floods were defined using data obtained from hospitals and clinics, the Ministry of Health and in-country World Health Organization office in Honiara. Geographical information system (GIS) was used to assess morbidity and mortality, and vulnerability of the health system infrastructure and households in Honiara. The April flash floods were responsible for 21 acute deaths, 33 injuries, and a diarrhea outbreak that affected 8,584 people with 10 pediatric deaths. A GIS vulnerability assessment of the location of the health system infrastructure and households relative to rivers and the coastline identified 75% of the health infrastructure and over 29% of Honiara's population as vulnerable to future hydrological events. Honiara, Solomon Islands, is a rapidly growing, highly vulnerable urban Pacific Island environment. Evaluation of the mortality and morbidity from the April 2014 floods as well as the infectious disease outbreaks that followed allows public health specialists and policy makers to understand the health system and populations vulnerability to future shocks. Understanding the negative impacts natural disaster have on people living in urban Pacific environments will help the government as well as development partners in crafting resilient adaptation development. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Defining Population Health Vulnerability Following an Extreme Weather Event in an Urban Pacific Island Environment: Honiara, Solomon Islands

PubMed Central

Natuzzi, Eileen S.; Joshua, Cynthia; Shortus, Matthew; Reubin, Reginald; Dalipanda, Tenneth; Ferran, Karen; Aumua, Audrey; Brodine, Stephanie

2016-01-01

Extreme weather events are common and increasing in intensity in the southwestern Pacific region. Health impacts from cyclones and tropical storms cause acute injuries and infectious disease outbreaks. Defining population vulnerability to extreme weather events by examining a recent flood in Honiara, Solomon Islands, can help stakeholders and policymakers adapt development to reduce future threats. The acute and subacute health impacts following the April 2014 floods were defined using data obtained from hospitals and clinics, the Ministry of Health and in-country World Health Organization office in Honiara. Geographical information system (GIS) was used to assess morbidity and mortality, and vulnerability of the health system infrastructure and households in Honiara. The April flash floods were responsible for 21 acute deaths, 33 injuries, and a diarrhea outbreak that affected 8,584 people with 10 pediatric deaths. A GIS vulnerability assessment of the location of the health system infrastructure and households relative to rivers and the coastline identified 75% of the health infrastructure and over 29% of Honiara's population as vulnerable to future hydrological events. Honiara, Solomon Islands, is a rapidly growing, highly vulnerable urban Pacific Island environment. Evaluation of the mortality and morbidity from the April 2014 floods as well as the infectious disease outbreaks that followed allows public health specialists and policy makers to understand the health system and populations vulnerability to future shocks. Understanding the negative impacts natural disaster have on people living in urban Pacific environments will help the government as well as development partners in crafting resilient adaptation development. PMID:27091867

Complex Challenges in the Less-Developed World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webster, P. J.

2016-12-01

The developing world faces special challenges in a changing climate. The immediate impacts of possible increased precipitation, more frequent and severe hazard events and sea-level rise are compounded by lack of resources and, often, rapidly growing populations. We examine the concept that the society that learns to deal with hazards in the current climate will be best placed to deal with possibly more frequent and more intense hazards in the future. We use as an example the conundrum facing Bangladesh where global sea-level rise is exaggerated by delta subsidence of river sediment. Sedimentation is expected to increase with increased river flow. We explore how authorities may deal with these multifaceted threats and how they need to carefully thread a strategy that leads to solutions and not exaggerations of the problem.

Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jongman, Brenden; Winsemius, Hessel; Aerts, Jeroen; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Van Aalst, Maarten; Kron, Wolfgang; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

The global impacts of river floods are substantial and rising. Effective adaptation to the increasing risks requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and socioeconomic drivers of risk. Whilst the modeling of flood hazard and exposure has improved greatly, compelling evidence on spatiotemporal patterns in vulnerability of societies around the world is lacking. Hence, the effects of vulnerability on global flood risk are not fully understood, and future projections of fatalities and losses available today are based on simplistic assumptions or do not include vulnerability. In this study, we show that trends and fluctuations in vulnerability to river floods around the world can be estimated by dynamic high-resolution modeling of flood hazard and exposure. We show that fatalities and losses as a share of exposed population and gross domestic product are decreasing with rising income. We also show that there is a tendency of convergence in vulnerability levels between low- and high-income countries. Based on these findings, we simulate future flood impacts per country using traditional assumptions of static vulnerability through time, but also using future assumptions on reduced vulnerability in the future. We show that future risk increases can be largely contained using effective disaster risk reduction strategies, including a reduction of vulnerability. The study was carried out using the global flood risk model, GLOFRIS, combined with high-resolution time-series maps of hazard and exposure at the global scale. Based on: Jongman et al., 2015. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, doi:10.1073/pnas.1414439112.

Report of the Proceedings of the Conference on the Future World of Work (St. Louis, Missouri, October 12, 1984).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Pamela F., Ed.; Coady, William T., Ed.

A team of consultants met with personnel from the Vocational Ethics Infusion Project to discuss vocational ethics from the perspectives of the current and future world of work. This activity was undertaken with the goal of defining the domain of vocational ethics. Issues in the first session included whether the future world of work presents an…

Contribution of explosion and future collision fragments to the orbital debris environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Su, S.-Y.; Kessler, D. J.

1985-01-01

The time evolution of the near-earth man-made orbital debris environment modeled by numerical simulation is presented in this paper. The model starts with a data base of orbital debris objects which are tracked by the NORAD ground radar system. The current untrackable small objects are assumed to result from explosions and are predicted from data collected from a ground explosion experiment. Future collisions between earth orbiting objects are handled by the Monte Carlo method to simulate the range of collision possibilities that may occur in the real world. The collision fragmentation process between debris objects is calculated using an empirical formula derived from a laboratory spacecraft impact experiment to obtain the number versus size distribution of the newly generated debris population. The evolution of the future space debris environment is compared with the natural meteoroid background for the relative spacecraft penetration hazard.

Population control II: The population establishment today.

PubMed

Hartmann, B

1997-01-01

Although population assistance represents a relatively small share of official development assistance, it influences many other aspects of development planning. The organizations that comprise the population establishment have a common purpose--the reduction of population growth in the Third World--but they are not homogeneous and sometimes have conflicting goals and strategies. National governments, multilateral agencies, nongovernmental organizations, foundations, academic centers, and pressure groups all contribute to creating and sustaining what has become a virtual population control industry. Through scholarships, travel grants, awards, and favorable publicity, Third World elites have been encouraged to join the population establishment. The World Bank, the U.S. Agency for International Development, and the U.N. Fund for Population Activities have pursued explicit strategies for pressuring Third World governments to design and implement population policies, most recently in Africa.

The response to September 11: a disaster case study.

PubMed

Crane, Michael A; Levy-Carrick, Nomi C; Crowley, Laura; Barnhart, Stephanie; Dudas, Melissa; Onuoha, Uchechukwu; Globina, Yelena; Haile, Winta; Shukla, Gauri; Ozbay, Fatih

2014-01-01

The response to 9/11 continues into its 14th year. The World Trade Center Health Program (WTCHP), a long-term monitoring and treatment program now funded by the Zadroga Act of 2010, includes >60,000 World Trade Center (WTC) disaster responders and community members ("survivors"). The aim of this review is to identify several elements that have had a critical impact on the evolution of the WTC response and, directly or indirectly, the health of the WTC-exposed population. It further explores post-disaster monitoring efforts, recent scientific findings from the WTCHP, and some implications of this experience for ongoing and future environmental disaster response. Transparency and responsiveness, site safety and worker training, assessment of acute and chronic exposure, and development of clinical expertise are interconnected elements determining efficacy of disaster response. Even in a relatively well-resourced environment, challenges regarding allocation of appropriate attention to vulnerable populations and integration of treatment response to significant medical and mental health comorbidities remain areas of ongoing programmatic development. Copyright © 2014 Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. All rights reserved.

Strategies to maintain health in the Third World.

PubMed

Korte, R; Rehle, T; Merkle, A

1991-12-01

International cooperation with Third World countries aims at reducing the high morbidity and mortality of the population to a tolerable level. The main health problems are caused by poverty. Thus, the range of diseases in tropical countries can be explained more readily by the socio-economic situation than solely by the climate. Health services, in Africa in particular, have had to reduce drastically their budgets in the last ten years and now have only approximately 1/1000th of the funds usually available in industrialised countries. High population growth reduces the resources available per head, increases infection potential and worsens living conditions. Control strategies must take account of these circumstances in order to achieve the required sustained effect within the framework of primary health care. The example of the control of several infectious diseases, such as schistosomiasis, pneumonia, malaria and AIDS, is used to show that control programmes can be effective but, in the current conditions, can hardly be maintained without outside support. In the future, diseases caused by environmental problems and new life styles as a result of industrialization, urbanization and slum growth will move dramatically into the foreground.

Future Diet Scenarios and Their Effect on Regional and Global Biofuel Potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregg, J.; hvid, A.

2012-04-01

Food production has been one of the most significant ways in which humans have changed the surface of the Earth. It is projected that further intensification of agriculture will be necessary to meet a growing population and the increased demand for calories from animal products. This would require substantially more land and resources devoted to animal production. However, globally, the proportion of per capita caloric intake from animal to total caloric intake has remained relatively constant for the last 50 years at slightly above 15%. Nevertheless, there are large discrepancies across regions and through time. For example, northern European countries derive over 30% of calories from animal products, while India is under 10%; between 1961 and 2007, China's per capita consumption of animal calories has increased by over a factor of ten, while in the US, animal calorie consumption has remained constant. In general, per capita consumption of animal products is lower in developing countries than in developed countries, and it is commonly assumed that future animal product consumption will increase as developing countries become wealthier. On the other hand, wealthier countries are remaining constant or even decreasing their proportional consumption of animal calories, and this could be a different way that future diets may evolve. We create different future scenarios for calorie demand from vegetal products, beef, sheep and goat, pork, poultry, and dairy based on historical national trends and estimated income elasticities for these various food products. The extreme scenarios are one in which the world evolves to a highly vegetal calorie diet and, on the other extreme, one in which the world evolves to diets with high meat consumption. Intermediate scenarios include projections of current trends and one in which the world moves to a healthy balanced diet given current recommendations. Using DTU-GCAM, and global integrated assessment model with an included land use module, we explore the effect of these different global and regional diet scenarios on land use and biofuel potential up to the year 2095. The model economically optimizes food production for 14 different regions of the world based on their current and historical land use and land cover, using free market and free trade assumptions.

Future Diet Scenarios and Their Effect on Regional and Global Land Use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregg, J. S.; Hvid, A.

2011-12-01

Food production has been one of the most significant ways in which humans have changed the surface of the Earth. It is projected that further intensification of agriculture will be necessary to meet a growing population and the increased demand for calories from animal products. This would require substantially more land and resources devoted to animal production. However, globally, the proportion of per capita caloric intake from animal to total caloric intake has remained relatively constant for the last 50 years at slightly above 15%. Nevertheless, there are large discrepancies across regions and through time. For example, northern European countries derive over 30% of calories from animal products, while India is under 10%; between 1961 and 2007, China's per capita consumption of animal calories has increased by over a factor of ten, while in the US, animal calorie consumption has remained constant. In general, per capita consumption of animal products is lower in developing countries than in developed countries, and it is commonly assumed that future animal product consumption will increase as developing countries become wealthier. On the other hand, wealthier countries are remaining constant or even decreasing their proportional consumption of animal calories, and this could be a different way that future diets may evolve. We create different future scenarios for calorie demand from vegetal products, beef, sheep and goat, pork, poultry, and dairy based on historical national trends and estimated income elasticities for these various food products. The extreme scenarios are one in which the world evolves to a highly vegetal calorie diet and, on the other extreme, one in which the world evolves to diets with high meat consumption. Intermediate scenarios include projections of current trends and one in which the world moves to a healthy balanced diet given current recommendations. Using DTU-GCAM, and global integrated assessment model with an included land use module, we explore the effect of these different global and regional diet scenarios on land use up to 2050. The model economically optimizes food production for 14 different regions of the world based on their current and historical land use and land cover, using free market and free trade assumptions.

Healthcare and healthcare systems: inspiring progress and future prospects

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Background Healthcare systems globally have experienced intensive changes, reforms, developments, and improvement over the past 30 years. Multiple actors (governmental and non-governmental) and countries have played their part in the reformation of the global healthcare system. New opportunities are presenting themselves while multiple challenges still remain especially in developing countries. Better way to proceed would be to learn from historical patterns while we plan for the future in a technology-driven society with dynamic demographic, epidemiological and economic uncertainties. Methods A structured review of both peer-reviewed and gray literature on the topic was carried out. Results On the whole, people are healthier, doing better financially and live longer today than 30 years ago. The number of under-5 mortality worldwide has declined from 12.7 million in 1990 to 6.3 million in 2013. Infant and maternal mortality rates have also been reduced. However, both rates are still considered high in Africa and some Asian countries. The world’s population nearly doubled in these 30 years, from 4.8 billion in 1985 to 7.2 billion in 2015. The majority of the increasing population was coming from the least developed countries, i.e., 3.66 to 5.33 billion. The world will be short of 12.9 million health-care workers by 2035; today, that figure stands at 7.2 million. Health care expenditures among countries also show sharp differences. In high income countries, per person health expenditure is over USD 3,000 on average, while in poor countries, it is as low as USD 12, WHO estimate of minimum spending per person per year needed to provide basic, life-saving services is USD 44. The challenges faced by the global health system over the past 30 years have been increased in population and urbanization, behavioral changes, rise in chronic diseases, traumatic injuries, infectious diseases, specific regional conflicts and healthcare delivery security. Over the next 30 years, most of the world population growth will occur in the urban areas of poor countries. The rapid, unplanned and unsustainable style of urban development will make developing countries cities the key focal points for emerging environmental and health hazards. Changes will be seen in design, culture and practices of hospitals to better meet the needs of patients, families and providers. Top driving factors of global healthcare system for next 30 years will be leading causes of mortalities, non-health factors (impact of nutrition, sanitation and women’s empowerment), investment in health workforce and growth of medical tourism in future healthcare scenario. Conclusions Evaluating the patterns of previous 30 years and predicting the progress and challenges of future health system are no rocket science. Medical care will be more self-directed in a more tech-savvy population as information will be more accessible and user friendly with higher quality. Health driving factors such as clean water, sanitation and food will take the center stage in humanities struggle and even increase population size. PMID:28293581

China's one-child family: a famine-forced decision.

PubMed

1985-01-01

The Reagan administration refuses to recognize the achievements of China's population program and the practical and humanitarian considerations which lead to China's adoption of vigorous family planning policies. China began to express concern about population growth in 1960, and this concern was, in part, prompted by a severe famine. The occurence of the famine was only recently brought to the attention of the rest of the world when demographers uncovered statistical evidence indicating that as many as 30 million Chinese may have perished in the 1958-62 famine. The famine was due both to faulty agricultural policies and to severe crop damage in 1959 and 1960. The family planning program initiated in 1960 was interrupted by the cultural revolution, and the effort to control population growth was not reinstituted until the early 1970s. By 1979 childbearing among the postwar baby boom generation boosted population growth rates to a new high, and the government began advocating a 1-child family. The national census of 1982 revealed that China's population doubled between 1949-1982 and in 1982 exceeded 1 billion. Severe famine and economic chaos were forecasted for the near future if population growth was not severely and immediately curbed. The government responded to this impending threat by instituting stringent measures to restrict 2nd order births. Abortion was permitted for cases of contraceptive failure; however, the government warned that severe penalties would be imposed on anyone who tried to ensure that their 1 child was a son by practicing female infanticide, a traditional but illegal practice. The government admits that some couples, under extreme pressure from local officials, resorted to infanticide. The Reagan administration used the infanticide issue to descredit the Chinese population program, and recently announced its intention to withhold US$10 million in previously approved funding from the UN Fund for Population Activities because the agency provided support for China's coercive population program. The administration also voiced its distorted preceion of China's program at the 1984 International Conference on Population. James Buckley, the administration's delegate to the conference, blamed state controlled economies for interfering with natural mechanisms for slowing population growth. In reality, China's progress in controlling population growth accounts for almost all of the 20% reduction in the world's population growth rate, since the late 1960s. By slowing the world's population growth rate, China contributed not only to it own economic well-being but to the economic well-being of all nations including the US. Yet Reagan condemns rather than praises China for enduring the hardship of controlling its fertility.

Emerging landscape degradation trends in the East African Horn

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pricope, N. G.; Michaelsen, J.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Lopez-Carr, D.

2012-12-01

Increasing climate variability along with declining trends in rainfall represent major risk factors affecting food security in many regions of the world. We identify Africa-wide regions where significant rainfall decreases from 1979-2011 are coupled with significant human population density increases. The rangelands of the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions with significantly increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Widespread vegetation degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using MODIS land cover and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data collected since 2000, we observe significant changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade across the East African Horn and demonstrate that these two products can be used concurrently at large spatial scales to monitor vegetation dynamics at decadal time scales. Results demonstrate that a near doubling of the population in pastoral regions is linked with hotspots of degradation in vegetation condition. The most significant land cover change and browning trends are observed in areas experiencing drying precipitation trends in addition to increasing population pressures. These findings have serious implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting and for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected to continue increasing against a backdrop of drying climate trends.Fig.1(a)Change in standardized precipitation index in Africa between 1979-2010 (b)Change in population density at continental scale using the GRUMPv1 1990 and 2000 and AfriPop 2010 population density datasets Fig.2 Land cover change trajectories based on 2001-2009 MOD12Q1 Land Cover product for the East African Horn overlaid over aggregated FEWS Net Livelihoods Zones.

Climate Change: A Future of Less Water and More people - Strategies for a Water Constrained World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nahai, D.

2010-12-01

Today, the fact that the Earth is warming is indisputable. The evidence of climate change is already all around us, with the occurence of ever more intense weather events, droughts, heat waves, floods and sea level rise. Predictions of greater calamities in the future without swift action must be taken seriously. However, while international summits have focused on means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, these are largely strategies of containment, not of cure. Even if emissions were to cease today, the current effects of climate change would remain with us for millenia. This is clear from the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The world must not only tackle the causes of global warming; it must adapt to the damage already done. This need is most acute where water supply is concerned. The world already faces daunting chalenges. According to United Nations' reports, even today 1.8 million children under 5 die from water related diseases every year; 900 million people lack access to safe drinking water; and 2.6 billion go without basic sanitation. In the developing world, 90% of sewage is discharged to water bodies without adequate treatment contributing to "dead zones". Population increases will make matters worse (an addition of around 3 billion people by 2050 is expected) and climate change will compound the crisis. It is forecast that, as the Earth warms, deserts will expand and droughts will intensify causing demographic shifts even as the world's population burgeons. We are already seeing different regions react to water shortages. Many countries are pursuing seawater desalination. However, seawater desalination has numerous drawbacks; it remains the most expensive of water treatment options and the most energy intensive. Some societies may have no choice but to turn to the sea; others should look to other alternatives first. Such frontrunners could include: (1) enhanced conservation, utilizing public education programs, price signals, and progressive building codes; (2) wastewater recycling for potable and non-potable uses, employing technological advances such as reverse osmosis, micro-filtration and UV radiation, as well as other creative approaches, such as phyto-remediation where feasible; (3) rainfall capture, through urban planning that exploits rainfall as an asset to replenish aquifers instead of exacerbating urban run-off by the indiscriminate construction of impervious surfaces; (4) groudwater remediation, deploying proven techniques to clean and reuse contaminated groundwater; and (5) where possible, underground storage programs to mitigate the cycle of heavy precipitation followed by harsh drought, which may be a by-product of climate change in certain areas. The foregoing methodologies comprise the Water Supply Plan of the City of Los Angeles which is located in a semi-arid area and is largely dependent on imported water from sources located far from the City, some of which depend, in turn, on snow pack which may diminish as a result of climate change. The Water Supply Plan recognizes that the City's population will grow even as its present water resources may shrink and that the City must act to confront a possible future of less water and more people.

Genetic diversity and association mapping in the Colombian Central Collection of Solanum tuberosum L. Andigenum group using SNPs markers.

PubMed

Berdugo-Cely, Jhon; Valbuena, Raúl Iván; Sánchez-Betancourt, Erika; Barrero, Luz Stella; Yockteng, Roxana

2017-01-01

The potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is the fourth most important crop food in the world and Colombia has one of the most important collections of potato germplasm in the world (the Colombian Central Collection-CCC). Little is known about its potential as a source of genetic diversity for molecular breeding programs. In this study, we analyzed 809 Andigenum group accessions from the CCC using 5968 SNPs to determine: 1) the genetic diversity and population structure of the Andigenum germplasm and 2) the usefulness of this collection to map qualitative traits across the potato genome. The genetic structure analysis based on principal components, cluster analyses, and Bayesian inference revealed that the CCC can be subdivided into two main groups associated with their ploidy level: Phureja (diploid) and Andigena (tetraploid). The Andigena population was more genetically diverse but less genetically substructured than the Phureja population (three vs. five subpopulations, respectively). The association mapping analysis of qualitative morphological data using 4666 SNPs showed 23 markers significantly associated with nine morphological traits. The present study showed that the CCC is a highly diverse germplasm collection genetically and phenotypically, useful to implement association mapping in order to identify genes related to traits of interest and to assist future potato genetic breeding programs.

Genetic diversity and association mapping in the Colombian Central Collection of Solanum tuberosum L. Andigenum group using SNPs markers

PubMed Central

Berdugo-Cely, Jhon; Valbuena, Raúl Iván; Sánchez-Betancourt, Erika; Barrero, Luz Stella

2017-01-01

The potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is the fourth most important crop food in the world and Colombia has one of the most important collections of potato germplasm in the world (the Colombian Central Collection-CCC). Little is known about its potential as a source of genetic diversity for molecular breeding programs. In this study, we analyzed 809 Andigenum group accessions from the CCC using 5968 SNPs to determine: 1) the genetic diversity and population structure of the Andigenum germplasm and 2) the usefulness of this collection to map qualitative traits across the potato genome. The genetic structure analysis based on principal components, cluster analyses, and Bayesian inference revealed that the CCC can be subdivided into two main groups associated with their ploidy level: Phureja (diploid) and Andigena (tetraploid). The Andigena population was more genetically diverse but less genetically substructured than the Phureja population (three vs. five subpopulations, respectively). The association mapping analysis of qualitative morphological data using 4666 SNPs showed 23 markers significantly associated with nine morphological traits. The present study showed that the CCC is a highly diverse germplasm collection genetically and phenotypically, useful to implement association mapping in order to identify genes related to traits of interest and to assist future potato genetic breeding programs. PMID:28257509

Dengue, Urbanization and Globalization: The Unholy Trinity of the 21(st) Century.

PubMed

Gubler, Duane J

2011-12-01

Dengue is the most important arboviral disease of humans with over half of the world's population living in areas of risk. The frequency and magnitude of epidemic dengue have increased dramatically in the past 40 years as the viruses and the mosquito vectors have both expanded geographically in the tropical regions of the world. There are many factors that have contributed to this emergence of epidemic dengue, but only three have been the principal drivers: 1) urbanization, 2) globalization and 3) lack of effective mosquito control. The dengue viruses have fully adapted to a human-Aedes aegypti-human transmission cycle, in the large urban centers of the tropics, where crowded human populations live in intimate association with equally large mosquito populations. This setting provides the ideal home for maintenance of the viruses and the periodic generation of epidemic strains. These cities all have modern airports through which 10s of millions of passengers pass each year, providing the ideal mechanism for transportation of viruses to new cities, regions and continents where there is little or no effective mosquito control. The result is epidemic dengue. This paper discusses this unholy trinity of drivers, along with disease burden, prevention and control and prospects for the future.

Power lifting: people meeting the population challenge.

PubMed

Dillon, L

1994-12-01

Whereas population pressures are usually associated with developing countries, developed countries like the US also suffer from population-associated problems. For example, in some US cities the infant mortality rate is worse than in the developing world. US policy-makers have found it useful to apply some of the programs used successfully in the developing world to problems at home. Efforts to increase the availability of health care services and education have led to the creation of the Healthy Start program in Baltimore, Maryland, which uses community residents to motivate their peers and provides counseling on family planning, education, and employment. In Oregon, an AIDS-prevention program, which makes condoms more accessible to teenagers, has been transplanted from Zaire. Chattanooga, Tennessee, has used techniques from Brazil to design public transportation systems and improve air quality. In communities across the country, activists are working to instill power in local residents as they seek ways to improve the environment and promote economic health. Modeled on an initiative in Bangladesh, community-run loan programs allow the development of microenterprises which help people develop self-employment opportunities. When women take part in these activities and become successfully employed, their children are given what is usually their first example of parental employment and a reason to hope for a better future.

The relationship between population ageing and the economic growth in Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brendan, Lo Rick; Sek, Siok Kun

2017-08-01

Asia has witnessed robust economic growth since the 1960s. Today, emerging markets in Asia have managed to maintain rapid growth even when the world's main economies suffer from debt and banking crises. However, declining total fertility rate, increasing life expectancy, continuous change of birth and death patterns, and increasing share of old age population in the age distribution in Asia exert significant pressure on its economies. This paper analyses the relationship between population ageing and economic growth using 2 different panels of countries; one Asian and another the from the oldest countries worldwide between 1970 and 2014. The analysis is based on the Auto Regression Distributed Lag models. The MG (Mean Group) and PMG (Pooled Mean Group) estimations are applied in this analysis. The Hausman Test is conducted to decide between the MG and PMG estimators. We find that ageing will negatively affect the economy in the long run. The growing number of youths will initially have a negative effect on the economy but would eventually lead to a positive growth in the future. The old age dependency ratio has yet to have affect the Asian economy but is expected eventually to impose a negative effect as seen in the oldest nations of the world.

The future of personal transportation in megacities of the world.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-02-01

This study examined the future of personal transportation in megacities of the world. : Of particular interest was the future role of personal vehicles. To span ranges of : geographical, political, and economic factors, the following 15 megacities we...

Behind Bars II: Substance Abuse and America's Prison Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Center on Addiction and Substance Abuse at Columbia University, 2010

2010-01-01

People in the United States, though only five percent of the world's population, consume two-thirds of the world's illegal drugs. People in the United States, though only five percent of the world's population, incarcerate 25 percent of the world's prisoners. It is no coincidence that of the 2.3 million inmates in U.S. prisons, 65 percent--1.5…

World Population: U.N. on the Move but Grounds for Optimism Are Scant

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holden, Constance

1974-01-01

Discusses current trends and problems relating to world population, and focuses on action being taken by the United Nations. This year (1974) has been designated World Population Year, and will be highlighted by a conference in Bucharest in which all 130 member governments will meet to confront the issue of population control. (JR)

International perspectives on education, training, and practice in clinical neuropsychology: comparison across 14 countries around the world.

PubMed

Grote, Christopher L; Novitski, Julia I

2016-11-01

To review and summarize data provided by special issue authors regarding the education, training, and practice of neuropsychologists from 14 surveyed countries. A table was constructed to present an overview of variables of interest. There is considerable diversity among surveyed countries regarding the education and training required to enter practice as a clinical neuropsychologist. Clinical neuropsychologists are typically well compensated, at least in comparison to what constitutes an average salary in each country. Despite substantial variations in education and training pathways, and availability of neuropsychologists from country to country, two common areas for future development are suggested. First, identification, development, and measurement of core competencies for neuropsychological education and practice are needed that can serve as a unifying element for the world's clinical neuropsychologists. Second, greater emphasis on recognizing and addressing the need for assessment and treatment of diverse populations is needed if the world's citizens can hope to benefit from the expertise of practitioners in our field.

Radiation processing of organics and biological materials exposed to ocean world surface conditions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hand, K. P.; Carlson, R. W.

2017-12-01

Assessing the habitability of ocean worlds, such as Europa and Enceladus, motivates a search for endogenous carbon compounds that could be indicative of a habitable, or even inhabited, subsurface liquid water environment. We have examined the role of destruction and synthesis of organic compounds via 10 keV electron bombardment of ices generated under temperature and pressure conditions comparable to Europa and Enceladus. Short-chain organics and ammonia, in combination with water, were exposed to Mrad to Grad doses and observed to evolve to a `lost' carbon fraction (CO and CO2) and a `retained' carbon fraction (consisting of a highly refractory `ocean world tholin' populated by highly radiation resistant carbonyl, aldehyde, and nitrile components). The retained fraction is of key importance as this likely represents the observable fraction for future spacecraft investigations. We also irradiated microbial spores (B. pumilis) to approximately 2 Grad and have found persistence of biomolecule fractions derived from proteins and nucleic acids.

Global public health leadership for the twenty-first century: towards improved health of all populations.

PubMed

Fried, Linda P; Piot, Peter; Frenk, Julio J; Flahault, Antoine; Parker, Richard

2012-01-01

We are at an unprecedented moment in history in terms of the health of populations around the world. New and old problems all require both short- and long-term solutions, at the individual, community, national and global levels. Unique solutions for each challenge may not be feasible or adequately effective or cost-effective. We are confronted by health systems that are not well matched to current and future needs, both for sustained prevention and chronic care. Moving forward effectively as a field will benefit from a focus on the changing needs of global health, and on how changing conditions, globally, should define the next generation of public health leadership so as to best accomplish global health goals.

Some comments on the World Energy Conference (WEC) energy demand model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandell, L.

1982-04-01

The WEC model, relating the energy demand for a region in a year to gross national product (GNP), aggregated energy prices and elasticity constants, is generalized. The changes that result from the assumption that the elasticity factors are not constant are examined. The resulting differential equation contains the variables energy demand per capita and GNP per capita for the region considered. The effect of time lag in energy demand and the influence of the population growth rate are also included in the model. No projections of the future energy demand were made, but model sensitiveness to the modifications were studied. Time lag effects and population growth effects can raise the projected energy demand for a region by 10% or more.

Taking Brief Strategic Family Therapy from Bench to Trench: Evidence Generation Across Translational Phases.

PubMed

Horigian, Viviana E; Anderson, Austen R; Szapocznik, José

2016-09-01

In this article, we review the research evidence generated over 40 years on Brief Strategic Family Therapy illustrating the NIH stages of intervention development and highlighting the translational process. Basic research (Stage 0) led to the discovery of the characteristics of the population and the nature of the problems that needed to be addressed. This step informed the selection of an intervention model that addressed the problems presented by the population, but in a fashion that was congruent with the population's culture, defined in terms of its value orientations. From this basic research, an intervention that integrated structural and strategic elements was selected and refined through testing (Stage I). The second stage of translation (Stage II) included efficacy trials of a specialized engagement module that responded to challenges to the provision of services. It also included several other efficacy trials that documented the effects of the intervention, mostly in research settings or with research therapists. Stages III/IV in the translational process led to the testing of the effectiveness of the intervention in real-world settings with community therapists and some oversight from the developer. This work revealed that an implementation/organizational intervention was required to achieve fidelity and sustainability of the intervention in real-world settings. The work is currently in Stage V in which new model development led to an implementation intervention that can ensure fidelity and sustainability. Future research will evaluate the effectiveness of the current implementation model in increasing adoption, fidelity, and long-term sustainability in real-world settings. © 2016 Family Process Institute.

Food supply reliance on groundwater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalin, Carole; Puma, Michael; Wada, Yoshihide; Kastner, Thomas

2016-04-01

Water resources, essential to sustain human life, livelihoods and ecosystems, are under increasing pressure from population growth, socio-economic development and global climate change. As the largest freshwater resource on Earth, groundwater is key for human development and food security. Yet, excessive abstraction of groundwater for irrigation, driven by an increasing demand for food in recent decades, is leading to fast exhaustion of groundwater reserves in major agricultural areas of the world. Some of the highest depletion rates are observed in Pakistan, India, California Central Valley and the North China Plain aquifers. In addition, the growing economy and population of several countries, such as India and China, makes prospects of future available water and food worrisome. In this context, it is becoming particularly challenging to sustainably feed the world population, without exhausting our water resources. Besides, food production and consumption across the globe have become increasingly interconnected, with many areas' agricultural production destined to remote consumers. In this globalisation era, trade is crucial to the world's food system. As a transfer of water-intensive goods, across regions with varying levels of water productivity, food trade can save significant volumes of water resources globally. This situation makes it essential to address the issue of groundwater overuse for global food supply, accounting for international food trade. To do so, we quantify the current, global use of non-renewable groundwater for major crops, accounting for various water productivity and trade flows. This will highlight areas requiring quickest attention, exposing major exporters and importers of non-renewable groundwater, and thus help explore solutions to improve the sustainability of global food supply.

On the number of New World founders: a population genetic portrait of the peopling of the Americas.

PubMed

Hey, Jody

2005-06-01

The founding of New World populations by Asian peoples is the focus of considerable archaeological and genetic research, and there persist important questions on when and how these events occurred. Genetic data offer great potential for the study of human population history, but there are significant challenges in discerning distinct demographic processes. A new method for the study of diverging populations was applied to questions on the founding and history of Amerind-speaking Native American populations. The model permits estimation of founding population sizes, changes in population size, time of population formation, and gene flow. Analyses of data from nine loci are consistent with the general portrait that has emerged from archaeological and other kinds of evidence. The estimated effective size of the founding population for the New World is fewer than 80 individuals, approximately 1% of the effective size of the estimated ancestral Asian population. By adding a splitting parameter to population divergence models it becomes possible to develop detailed portraits of human demographic history. Analyses of Asian and New World data support a model of a recent founding of the New World by a population of quite small effective size.

Declining Prevalence of Disease Vectors Under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escobar, Luis E.; Romero-Alvarez, Daniel; Leon, Renato; Lepe-Lopez, Manuel A.; Craft, Meggan E.; Borbor-Cordova, Mercy J.; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2016-12-01

More than half of the world population is at risk of vector-borne diseases including dengue fever, chikungunya, zika, yellow fever, leishmaniasis, chagas disease, and malaria, with highest incidences in tropical regions. In Ecuador, vector-borne diseases are present from coastal and Amazonian regions to the Andes Mountains; however, a detailed characterization of the distribution of their vectors has never been carried out. We estimate the distribution of 14 vectors of the above vector-borne diseases under present-day and future climates. Our results consistently suggest that climate warming is likely threatening some vector species with extinction, locally or completely. These results suggest that climate change could reduce the burden of specific vector species. Other vector species are likely to shift and constrain their geographic range to the highlands in Ecuador potentially affecting novel areas and populations. These forecasts show the need for development of early prevention strategies for vector species currently absent in areas projected as suitable under future climate conditions. Informed interventions could reduce the risk of human exposure to vector species with distributional shifts, in response to current and future climate changes. Based on the mixed effects of future climate on human exposure to disease vectors, we argue that research on vector-borne diseases should be cross-scale and include climatic, demographic, and landscape factors, as well as forces facilitating disease transmission at fine scales.

Understanding the Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Wetlands: The Human Dimension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, Denise

2010-05-01

In the 21st century coastal systems are subject to the pressures of centuries of population growth and resource exploitation. In 2003, in the US approximately 153 million people (53 percent of the population) lived in coastal counties, an increase of 33 million people since 1980 and this is expected to increase by approximately 7 million by the year 2008. Eight of the world's top ten largest cities are located at the coast, 44 % of the world's population (more people than inhabited the entire globe in 1950) live within 150 km of the coast and in 2001 over half the world's population lived within 200 km of a coastline. . Increased population density at the coasts often brings pollution and habitat degradation - decreasing the value of many of the resources that initially attract the coastal development - and it also means the effect of sea-level rise on coastal geomorphic systems must be seen in the context of additional human pressures. For global sea-level debate centers on the magnitude and rate of the rise around most of the world; the exception being those areas still experiencing falling sea-levels due to isostatic rebound. Many coastal island states are clearly vulnerable. While the ‘lurid and misleading maps' of the 1980's used by many to indicate areas to be flooded by rising seas in the future, have been replaced by more considered discussion of the response of coastal dynamics to rising seas there is still considerable debate about the amount of sea-level rise shorelines will experience in the 21st century. For coastal wetlands four main sets of physical factors - fine sediment regime; tidal conditions; coastal configuration; and relative sea-level change - define the geomorphic context for coastal marsh development and survival during the 21st century. Each of these factors is influenced by changes in climate and human alterations to coastal and inshore environments. In turn changes in sediment dynamics are mediated by both physical forcing and biotic factors, and plant growth is an additional factor influencing the survival of more organic marshes. Salt marsh surfaces are frequently considered to be in an equilibrium relationship with local mean sea level but the projection of salt marsh sustainability under future climate scenarios is a complex issue and depends on: the relative importance of organic matter to marsh vertical development; the complexities governing organic matter accumulation during rising sea level; the importance of subsurface processes in determining surface elevation change; and the role of storm events and hydrologic changes in controlling sediment deposition, soil conditions and plant growth. The effects of global change, both climate and human induced, on coastal wetlands will be manifest differently among various geomorphic settings but their vulnerability to global change in the 21st century should be taken seriously by coastal managers and policy-makers alike.

Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer

PubMed Central

Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C.; Moen, Jon

2016-01-01

Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region’s most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species’ total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi-faceted role that reindeer exert in Arctic ecosystems. PMID:27362499

Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer.

PubMed

Uboni, Alessia; Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C; Moen, Jon

2016-01-01

Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region's most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species' total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi-faceted role that reindeer exert in Arctic ecosystems.

World Association for the Advancement of Veterinary Parasitology (WAAVP): the 50th anniversary in 2013--history, achievements, and future perspectives.

PubMed

Eckert, J

2013-08-01

In 2013 the World Association for the Advancement of Veterinary Parasitology (WAAVP) can celebrate its 50th anniversary. At this occasion in this article selected historical data are updated, and the achievements and future perspectives of the WAAVP are discussed. Although the WAAVP is a small association with only a few hundred members, it has been able to develop remarkable activities. Between 1963 and 2011 the WAAVP has organized 23 international scientific congresses, and the 24th conference will take place in Perth, Western Australia, in 2013. These conferences have achieved a high degree of international recognition as indicated by relatively large numbers of participants (up to ~800). Furthermore, the WAAVP has promoted veterinary parasitology in various ways, such as publishing international guidelines (efficacy evaluation of antiparasitic drugs, parasitological methods, standardized nomenclature of animal parasitic diseases "SNOAPAD"), stimulating international discussions on teaching and continued education ("colleges of veterinary parasitology") and by supporting the high quality journal "Veterinary Parasitology" which is the official organ of the WAAVP. In retrospect, the development of the WAAVP can be classified as very successful. New challenges associated with global changes (growth of the world population, urbanization, climate change, new developments in animal and plant production, etc.) will require new efforts in research in various fields, including veterinary parasitology. Future activities of WAAVP may include inter alia: (a) support of international parasitological networks; (b) stimulation of coordinated research aimed at the solution of defined problems; (c) increasing the exposure of WAAVP to parasitology from hitherto neglected regions of the world; (d) strengthening of official links to international organizations (FAO, WHO, etc.); (e) continuation of guideline preparation; and (d) preparation and international distribution of high quality electronic programs for self-education in veterinary parasitology. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Comment: On the World's Energy Situation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kouzminow, V. A.

1979-01-01

Reviewed, in this editorial, are the present world energy situation and estimates of the prospects of supplying mankind with the amount of energy necessary for future socioeconomic development. Stressed is the role of different energy sources in the present and future energy balance of the world. (BT)

The Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area seagrasses: Managing this iconic Australian ecosystem resource for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coles, Robert G.; Rasheed, Michael A.; McKenzie, Len J.; Grech, Alana; York, Paul H.; Sheaves, Marcus; McKenna, Skye; Bryant, Catherine

2015-02-01

The Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBRWHA) includes one of the world's largest areas of seagrass (35,000 km2) encompassing approximately 20% of the world's species. Mapping and monitoring programs sponsored by the Australian and Queensland Governments and Queensland Port Authorities have tracked a worrying decrease in abundance and area since 2007. This decline has almost certainly been the result of a series of severe tropical storms and associated floods exacerbating existing human induced stressors. A complex variety of marine and terrestrial management actions and plans have been implemented to protect seagrass and other habitats in the GBRWHA. For seagrasses, these actions are inadequate. They provide an impression of effective protection of seagrasses; reduce the sense of urgency needed to trigger action; and waste the valuable and limited supply of "conservation capital". There is a management focus on ports, driven by public concerns about high profile development projects, which exaggerates the importance of these relatively concentrated impacts in comparison to the total range of threats and stressors. For effective management of seagrass at the scale of the GBRWHA, more emphasis needs to be placed on the connectivity between seagrass meadow health, watersheds, and all terrestrial urban and agricultural development associated with human populations. The cumulative impacts to seagrass from coastal and marine processes in the GBRWHA are not evenly distributed, with a mosaic of high and low vulnerability areas. This provides an opportunity to make choices for future coastal development plans that minimise stress on seagrass meadows.

Geriatric periodontology: how the need to care for the aging population can influence the future of the dental profession.

PubMed

Lamster, Ira B

2016-10-01

The world's population is aging, and it has been estimated that by 2050, the number of people 65 years of age and older will reach 1.5 billion. The aging population will be affected by noncommunicable chronic diseases, including diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease and cognitive impairment. This important demographic shift includes a reduction in tooth loss/edentulism, particularly in older adults of the developed countries in North America, western Europe and north-east Asia. Therefore, in the future, dental providers will be required to care for an expanded number of older adults who have retained teeth and are medically complex. As the linkage of oral disease and systemic disease has focused on the relationship of periodontitis and noncommunicable chronic diseases, a broad review of 'geriatric periodontology' is both timely and important. This volume of Periodontology 2000 covers a range of subjects under this heading. Included are the demographics of an aging world; the effect of aging on stem cell function in the periodontium; the periodontal microbiota associated with aging; the host response in the periodontium of aging individuals; an analysis of the prevalence of periodontitis in the USA on a national, state-wide and community basis; differentiation of physiologic oral aging from disease; treatment of periodontal disease in older adults; implant therapy for older patients; oral disease and the frailty syndrome; the relationship of tooth loss to longevity and life expectancy; and the relationship of periodontal disease to noncommunicable chronic diseases. Although 'geriatric dentistry' is not a recognized specialty in dentistry, and 'geriatric periodontology' is a descriptive title, the subject of this volume of Periodontology 2000 is critical to the future of clinical dentistry, dental public health and dental research. Any comprehensive focus on older patients can only be accomplished with an emphasis on interprofessional education and practice. If embraced, this shift will allow the dental profession to be more closely aligned with the larger health-care environment, and can improve both oral health and health outcomes for patients seen in the dental office. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impact of Demographic Trends on Future Development Patterns and the Loss of Open Space in the California Mojave Desert

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomben, Peter; Lilieholm, Robert; Gonzalez-Guillen, Manuel

2012-02-01

During the post-World War II era, the Mojave Desert Region of San Bernardino County, California, has experienced rapid levels of population growth. Over the past several decades, growth has accelerated, accompanied by significant shifts in ethnic composition, most notably from predominantly White non-Hispanic to Hispanic. This study explores the impacts of changing ethnicity on future development and the loss of open space by modeling ethnic propensities regarding family size and settlement preferences reflected by U.S. Census Bureau data. Demographic trends and land conversion data were obtained for seven Mojave Desert communities for the period between 1990 and 2001. Using a spatially explicit, logistic regression-based urban growth model, these data and trends were used to project community-specific future growth patterns from 2000 to 2020 under three future settlement scenarios: (1) an "historic" scenario reported in earlier research that uses a Mojave-wide average settlement density of 3.76 persons/ha; (2) an "existing" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities as of 2001; and (3) a "demographic futures" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities that explicitly model the Region's changing ethnicity. Results found that under the demographic futures scenario, by 2020 roughly 53% of within-community open space would remain, under the existing scenario only 40% would remain, and under the historic scenario model the communities would have what amounts to a deficit of open space. Differences in the loss of open space across the scenarios demonstrate the importance of considering demographic trends that are reflective of the residential needs and preferences of projected future populations.

Impact of demographic trends on future development patterns and the loss of open space in the California Mojave Desert.

PubMed

Gomben, Peter; Lilieholm, Robert; Gonzalez-Guillen, Manuel

2012-02-01

During the post-World War II era, the Mojave Desert Region of San Bernardino County, California, has experienced rapid levels of population growth. Over the past several decades, growth has accelerated, accompanied by significant shifts in ethnic composition, most notably from predominantly White non-Hispanic to Hispanic. This study explores the impacts of changing ethnicity on future development and the loss of open space by modeling ethnic propensities regarding family size and settlement preferences reflected by U.S. Census Bureau data. Demographic trends and land conversion data were obtained for seven Mojave Desert communities for the period between 1990 and 2001. Using a spatially explicit, logistic regression-based urban growth model, these data and trends were used to project community-specific future growth patterns from 2000 to 2020 under three future settlement scenarios: (1) an "historic" scenario reported in earlier research that uses a Mojave-wide average settlement density of 3.76 persons/ha; (2) an "existing" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities as of 2001; and (3) a "demographic futures" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities that explicitly model the Region's changing ethnicity. Results found that under the demographic futures scenario, by 2020 roughly 53% of within-community open space would remain, under the existing scenario only 40% would remain, and under the historic scenario model the communities would have what amounts to a deficit of open space. Differences in the loss of open space across the scenarios demonstrate the importance of considering demographic trends that are reflective of the residential needs and preferences of projected future populations.

Population and economics.

PubMed

Wright, W

1995-06-01

The first world consists of the developed industrial countries, the second consists of rapidly developing countries, and the third of less developed, largely pre-industrial countries. The economies of most developed countries in recent years have been relatively stagnant. Most people in the developed world therefore assume that the bottom of the business cycle has arrived and that an upturn will soon be forthcoming. With the exception of the USA and Chile, which have been moderately prosperous in the last few years, the bottom has persisted for a very long time. Indeed, the developed world is not caught in a conventional business cycle, but in something quite new and different. The first world is struggling to stay at the top of countries worldwide both economically and politically, but the second world is rapidly catching up. Populations in these latter countries are both better educated and willing to work harder per unit of capital compared to people in the first world. Marketplace forces and the communication highway are increasingly bring about a scenario in which the first and second worlds will be economic peers. Faced with increased competition from the second world and a larger number of countries capable of providing foreign aid to the third world, it should be clear that the first world will turn inward and reduce its annual aid contributions to less developed countries. It is, however, in the first world's interest to promote family planning toward the goal of reduced population growth. Developed countries should insist that a substantial fraction of whatever foreign aid is provided goes toward reducing the rate of population growth. The first priority should be to make contraceptives available and promote their use worldwide. Efforts should then be taken to empower women through educational and other programs. This approach will slow population growth and improve the economic productivity of both men and women. The Third World should also seriously address its own population problems, and stop looking to the day when their enormous populations will overwhelm the first world.

World population plans, statement made at the Regional Consultation on the World Population Plan of Action, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, May 1974.

PubMed

Salas, R M

1974-05-16

In this speech Salas makes mention of the UNFPA's contribution to the African Census Program in the largest international operation of its kind ever undertaken. 22 countries are involved. Findings of the census combined with other demography work being done in Africa will add inpetus to the growing debate on population in the Africa context. Mr. Salas cites a 2.9% annual growth rate in Africa, which is expected to rise to 3.1%. This will yield a doubling of the African population in less than 30 years. City populations are said to be growing faster: almost 4% annually. There is a need for planning; food supply is particularly important. Nothing can be done about population growth rates in the immediate future but there is no case for ignoring their long term importance. Despite high growth rates and associated problems, population growth does not present the major threat in Africa. Traditional societies have their own approaches to the regulation of family size. Family planning, properly used, can be a powerful force for life, adding strength to individuals, the family unit, and society as a whole. In accordance with the Fund's mandate, great attention will continue to be paid to country programming and the conclusion of long term comprehensive agreements within the framework of national development programs. 14 country agreements are currently in operation. The Work Plan is based on projected resources of US$321 million, of which US$52.8 million earmarked for country and regional projects in Africa. 40%, or the largest share, will go for the collection and analysis of population date. Support for family planning programs accounts for 25%, communication and education, 18%. Work in relation to population dynamics takes 12% and the rest is accounted for by assistance in the formation of population policy and by multi-sector activities.

Future Battles and the Development of Military Concepts

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-08-22

Land Battle concept dating from the Cold War era. The author maintains tliat such an approach is tied to old ways of thinking; the world has changed...the current world economic and social state, along with anticipated future flash points around the globe; a new military operational concept titled...project power, let alone rival U.S. dominance on the high seas. An alternate and more plausible future is a world that will require frequent

A basis for translational cancer research on aetiology, pathogenesis and prognosis: Guideline for standardised and population-based linkages of biobanks to cancer registries.

PubMed

Dillner, Joakim

2015-06-01

Population-based cancer research is paramount for controlling cancer. Cancer research is increasingly dependent on access to biospecimens from subjects that have been followed-up for future health outcomes. This is achieved using longitudinal follow-up of cohorts and biobanks using cancer registry linkages. All over the world, more and more large population-based cohorts and advanced biobanking facilities are established. International standardisation and networking in the linkage of cohorts and biobanks to cancer registries is required in order to enable international cancer research and comparability of research results. An international operating procedure and standard minimum dataset for linkages of biobanks, cohorts and cancer registries is proposed. An internationally comparable provision of well characterised study bases for molecular cancer research will be an essential prerequisite for the success of translational medicine. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Refining the ideas of "ethnic" skin.

PubMed

Torres, Vicente; Herane, Maria Isabel; Costa, Adilson; Martin, Jaime Piquero; Troielli, Patricia

2017-01-01

Skin disease occur worldwide, affecting people of all nationalities and all skin types. These diseases may have a genetic component and may manifest differently in specific population groups; however, there has been little study on this aspect. If population-based differences exist, it is reasonable to assume that understanding these differences may optimize treatment. While there is a relative paucity of information about similarities and differences in skin diseases around the world, the knowledge-base is expanding. One challenge in understanding population-based variations is posed by terminology used in the literature: including ethnic skin, Hispanic skin, Asian skin, and skin of color. As will be discussed in this article, we recommend that the first three descriptors are no longer used in dermatology because they refer to nonspecific groups of people. In contrast, "skin of color" may be used - perhaps with further refinements in the future - as a term that relates to skin biology and provides relevant information to dermatologists.

Low Fertility at the Turn of the Twenty-First Century

PubMed Central

Morgan, S. Philip; Taylor, Miles G.

2010-01-01

In the past few decades, demographic concerns have shifted from rapid population growth fueled by high fertility to concerns of population decline produced by very low, sub-replacement fertility levels. Once considered a problem unique to Europe or developed nations, concerns now center on the global spread of low fertility. Nearly half of the world's population now lives in countries with fertility at or below replacement levels. Further, by the mid-twenty-first century three of four countries now described as developing are projected to reach or slip below replacement fertility. We review the research on low fertility through the predominant frameworks and theories used to explain it. These explanations range from decomposition and proximate determinant frameworks to grand theories on the fundamental causes underlying the pervasiveness and spread of low fertility. We focus on the ability of theory to situate previous and future findings and conclude with directions for furthur research. PMID:20376287

National nursing science priorities: Creating a shared vision.

PubMed

Eckardt, Patricia; Culley, Joan M; Corwin, Elizabeth; Richmond, Therese; Dougherty, Cynthia; Pickler, Rita H; Krause-Parello, Cheryl A; Roye, Carol F; Rainbow, Jessica G; DeVon, Holli A

Nursing science is essential to advance population health through contributions at all phases of scientific inquiry. Multiple scientific initiatives important to nursing science overlap in aims and population focus. This article focused on providing the American Academy of Nursing and nurse scientists in the Unites States with a blueprint of nursing science priorities to inform a shared vision for future collaborations, areas of scientific inquiry, and resource allocation. The Science Committee convened four times and using Delphi methods identified priorities with empirical evidence and expert opinion for prioritization, state of the science, expert interest, and potential target stakeholders. Nursing science priorities for 2017 were categorized into four themes including: (a) precision science, (b) big data and data analytics, (c) determinants of health, and (d) global health. Nurse scientists can generate new knowledge in priority areas that advances the health of the world's populations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Future Evolution of Virtual Worlds as Communication Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prisco, Giulio

Extensive experience creating locations and activities inside virtual worlds provides the basis for contemplating their future. Users of virtual worlds are diverse in their goals for these online environments; for example, immersionists want them to be alternative realities disconnected from real life, whereas augmentationists want them to be communication media supporting real-life activities. As the technology improves, the diversity of virtual worlds will increase along with their significance. Many will incorporate more advanced virtual reality, or serve as major media for long-distance collaboration, or become the venues for futurist social movements. Key issues are how people can create their own virtual worlds, travel across worlds, and experience a variety of multimedia immersive environments. This chapter concludes by noting the view among some computer scientists that future technologies will permit uploading human personalities to artificial intelligence avatars, thereby enhancing human beings and rendering the virtual worlds entirely real.

Satellite broadcasting and communications in the Asia-Pacific region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonzon, S.

1985-12-01

Against the general context of worldwide developments in satellite communications and broadcasting, and the recent ORB'85 Conference, this paper assesses the future for satellite communication and broadcasting in the Asia-Pacific region. While most attention focusses on satellite developments for the industrialized world, the Asia-Pacific region is expected to play an increasingly significant role, and the needs of its population will be satisfied by development of satellite communications and broadcasting systems. Particular emphasis is placed in this paper on the broadcasting aspects, and their relationship to cultural and economic development.

The way forward for telemedicine in health care delivery.

PubMed

Kwankam, S Yunkap

2013-01-01

Telemedicine has shown substantial growth recently both in terms of financial volume and numbers of people served. It also holds promise for even more growth in the future, driven by both epidemiological conditions and technological advancements. The spread of the mobile telephone into the remotest parts of developing countries, combined with its multiple applications in health and mobile financial services will extend telemedicine to vast swathes of the world's populations. However, some challenges, primarily in dealing with the regulatory environment, will need to be overcome for this potential to be fully realized.

Future US energy demands based upon traditional consumption patterns lead to requirements which significantly exceed domestic supply

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

Energy consumption in the United States has risen in response to both increasing population and to increasing levels of affluence. Depletion of domestic energy reserves requires consumption modulation, production of fossil fuels, more efficient conversion techniques, and large scale transitions to non-fossile fuel energy sources. Widening disparity between the wealthy and poor nations of the world contributes to trends that increase the likelihood of group action by the lesser developed countries to achieve political and economic goals. The formation of anticartel cartels is envisioned.

Basic research needs to assure a secure energy future. A report from the Basic Energy Sciences Advisory Committee

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

This report has highlighted many of the possible fundamental research areas that will help our country avoid a future energy crisis. The report may not have adequately captured the atmosphere of concern that permeated the discussions at the workshop. The difficulties facing our nation and the world in meeting our energy needs over the next several decades are very challenging. It was generally felt that traditional solutions and approaches will not solve the total energy problem. Knowledge that does not exist must be obtained to address both the quantity of energy needed to increase the standard of living world-wide andmore » the quality of energy generation needed to preserve the environment. In terms of investments, it was clear that there is no single research area that will secure the future energy supply. A diverse range of economic energy sources will be required--and a broad range of fundamental research is needed to enable these. Many of the issues fall into the traditional materials and chemical sciences research areas, but with specific emphasis on understanding mechanisms, energy related phenomena, and pursuing novel directions in, for example, nanoscience and integrated modeling. An important result from the discussions, which is hopefully apparent from the brief presentations above, is that the problems that must be dealt with are truly multidisciplinary. This means that they require the participation of investigators with different skill sets. Basic science skills have to be complemented by awareness of the overall nature of the problem in a national and world context, and with knowledge of the engineering, design, and control issues in any eventual solution. It is necessary to find ways in which this can be done while still preserving the ability to do first-class basic science. The traditional structure of research, with specific disciplinary groupings, will not be sufficient. This presents great challenges and opportunities for the funders of the research that must be done. For example, the applied research programs in the DOE need a greater awareness of the user facilities and an understanding of how to use them to solve their unique problems. The discussions reinforced what all of the participants already knew: the issue of energy security is of major importance both for the U.S. and for the world. Furthermore, it is clear that major changes in the primary energy sources, in energy conversion, and in energy use, must be achieved within the next fifty years. This time scale is determined by two drivers: increasing world population and increasing expectations of that population. Much of the research and development currently being done are concerned with incremental improvements in what has been done in the immediate past; and it is necessary to take this path because improvements will be needed across the board. These advances extend the period before the radical changes have to be made; however, they will not solve the underlying, long-range problem. The Subpanel recommends that a major program be funded to conduct a multidisciplinary research program to address the issues to ensure a secure energy future for the U.S. It is necessary to recognize that this program must be ensured of a long-term stability. It is also necessary that a management and funding structure appropriate for such an approach be developed. The Department of Energy's Office of Basic Energy Sciences is well positioned to support this initiative by enhancement of their already world-class scientific research programs and user facilities.« less

Interacting stressors and the potential for adaptation in a changing world: responses of populations and individuals

PubMed Central

French, Susannah S.; Brodie, Edmund D.

2017-01-01

To accurately predict the impact of environmental change, it is necessary to assay effects of key interacting stressors on vulnerable organisms, and the potential resiliency of their populations. Yet, for the most part, these critical data are missing. We examined the effects of two common abiotic stressors predicted to interact with climate change, salinity and temperature, on the embryonic survival and development of a model freshwater vertebrate, the rough-skinned newt (Taricha granulosa) from different populations. We found that salinity and temperature significantly interacted to affect newt embryonic survival and development, with the negative effects of salinity most pronounced at temperature extremes. We also found significant variation among, and especially within, populations, with different females varying in the performance of their eggs at different salinity–temperature combinations, possibly providing the raw material for future natural selection. Our results highlight the complex nature of predicting responses to climate change in space and time, and provide critical data towards that aim. PMID:28680662

Demographic change and carbon dioxide emissions.

PubMed

O'Neill, Brian C; Liddle, Brant; Jiang, Leiwen; Smith, Kirk R; Pachauri, Shonali; Dalton, Michael; Fuchs, Regina

2012-07-14

Relations between demographic change and emissions of the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO(2)) have been studied from different perspectives, but most projections of future emissions only partly take demographic influences into account. We review two types of evidence for how CO(2) emissions from the use of fossil fuels are affected by demographic factors such as population growth or decline, ageing, urbanisation, and changes in household size. First, empirical analyses of historical trends tend to show that CO(2) emissions from energy use respond almost proportionately to changes in population size and that ageing and urbanisation have less than proportional but statistically significant effects. Second, scenario analyses show that alternative population growth paths could have substantial effects on global emissions of CO(2) several decades from now, and that ageing and urbanisation can have important effects in particular world regions. These results imply that policies that slow population growth would probably also have climate-related benefits. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

World Population in Transition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merrick, Thomas W.; And Others

1986-01-01

This issue discusses world population trends and their implications for more and less developed countries. There have been two periods of major population expansion since 1750 with the first lasting almost 200 years and the second surge occurring after World War II. Growth rates in industrialized countries are now very low with fertility below…

Enabling technologies to improve area-wide integrated pest management programmes for the control of screwworms.

PubMed

Robinson, A S; Vreysen, M J B; Hendrichs, J; Feldmann, U

2009-06-01

The economic devastation caused in the past by the New World screwworm fly Cochliomyia hominivorax (Coquerel) (Diptera: Calliphoridae) to the livestock industry in the U.S.A., Mexico and the rest of Central America was staggering. The eradication of this major livestock pest from North and Central America using the sterile insect technique (SIT) as part of an area-wide integrated pest management (AW-IPM) programme was a phenomenal technical and managerial accomplishment with enormous economic implications. The area is maintained screwworm-free by the weekly release of 40 million sterile flies in the Darien Gap in Panama, which prevents migration from screwworm-infested areas in Columbia. However, the species is still a major pest in many areas of the Caribbean and South America and there is considerable interest in extending the eradication programme to these countries. Understanding New World screwworm fly populations in the Caribbean and South America, which represent a continuous threat to the screwworm-free areas of Central America and the U.S.A., is a prerequisite to any future eradication campaigns. The Old World screwworm fly Chrysomya bezziana Villeneuve (Diptera: Calliphoridae) has a very wide distribution ranging from Southern Africa to Papua New Guinea and, although its economic importance is assumed to be less than that of its New World counterpart, it is a serious pest in extensive livestock production and a constant threat to pest-free areas such as Australia. In the 1980s repeated introductions and an expansion of Old World screwworm populations were reported in the Middle East; in the 1990s it invaded Iraq and since late 2007 it has been reported in Yemen, where a severe outbreak of myiasis occurred in 2008. Small-scale field trials have shown the potential of integrating the SIT in the control of this pest and various international organizations are considering using the release of sterile insects as part of an AW-IPM approach on a much wider scale. Wohlfahrtia magnifica (Schiner) (Diptera: Sarcophagidae) is a screwworm of temperate regions, which, although of limited agricultural importance, has invaded several new locations in the past few years. This special issue reports on the results of a 6-year project funded by the Joint Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations/International Atomic Energy Agency (FAO/IAEA) Programme of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture entitled 'Enabling Technologies for the Expansion of the SIT for Old and New World Screwworm'. A major goal of the project was to better understand population genetic variation in screwworms as an aid to the identification of isolated populations. The project also addressed issues related to genetic sexing, cuticular hydrocarbons, population dynamics, genetic transformation and chromosome analysis.

Future Scenarios in Communications. Teacher's Guide. Preparing for Tomorrow's World.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Iozzi, Louis A.; And Others

"Future Scenarios in Communications" is one of the "Preparing for Tomorrow's World" (PTW) program modules. PTW is an interdisciplinary, future-oriented program incorporating information from the sciences and social sciences and addressing societal concerns which interface science/technology/society. The program promotes…

Inferring population structure and demographic history using Y-STR data from worldwide populations.

PubMed

Xu, Hongyang; Wang, Chuan-Chao; Shrestha, Rukesh; Wang, Ling-Xiang; Zhang, Manfei; He, Yungang; Kidd, Judith R; Kidd, Kenneth K; Jin, Li; Li, Hui

2015-02-01

The Y chromosome is one of the best genetic materials to explore the evolutionary history of human populations. Global analyses of Y chromosomal short tandem repeats (STRs) data can reveal very interesting world population structures and histories. However, previous Y-STR works tended to focus on small geographical ranges or only included limited sample sizes. In this study, we have investigated population structure and demographic history using 17 Y chromosomal STRs data of 979 males from 44 worldwide populations. The largest genetic distances have been observed between pairs of African and non-African populations. American populations with the lowest genetic diversities also showed large genetic distances and coancestry coefficients with other populations, whereas Eurasian populations displayed close genetic affinities. African populations tend to have the oldest time to the most recent common ancestors (TMRCAs), the largest effective population sizes and the earliest expansion times, whereas the American, Siberian, Melanesian, and isolated Atayal populations have the most recent TMRCAs and expansion times, and the smallest effective population sizes. This clear geographic pattern is well consistent with serial founder model for the origin of populations outside Africa. The Y-STR dataset presented here provides the most detailed view of worldwide population structure and human male demographic history, and additionally will be of great benefit to future forensic applications and population genetic studies.

Potential (Mis)match? Marriage Markets Amidst Sociodemographic Change in India, 2005-2050.

PubMed

Kashyap, Ridhi; Esteve, Albert; García-Román, Joan

2015-02-01

We explore the impact of sociodemographic change on marriage patterns in India by examining the hypothetical consequences of applying three sets of marriage pairing propensities-contemporary patterns by age, contemporary patterns by age and education, and changing propensities that allow for greater educational homogamy and reduced educational asymmetries--to future population projections. Future population prospects for India indicate three trends that will impact marriage patterns: (1) female deficit in sex ratios at birth; (2) declining birth cohort size; (3) female educational expansion. Existing literature posits declining marriage rates for men arising from skewed sex ratios at birth (SRBs) in India's population. In addition to skewed SRBs, India's population will experience female educational expansion in the coming decades. Female educational expansion and its impact on marriage patterns must be jointly considered with demographic changes, given educational differences and asymmetries in union formation that exist in India, as across much of the world. We systematize contemporary pairing propensities using data from the 2005-2006 Indian National Family Health Survey and the 2004 Socio-Economic Survey and apply these and the third set of changing propensities to multistate population projections by educational attainment using an iterative longitudinal projection procedure. If today's age patterns of marriage are viewed against age/sex population composition until 2050, men experience declining marriage prevalence. However, when education is included, women--particularly those with higher education--experience a more salient rise in nonmarriage. Significant changes in pairing patterns toward greater levels of educational homogamy and gender symmetry can counteract a marked rise in nonmarriage.

Future Water Management in the South Platte River Basin: Impacts of Hydraulic Fracturing, Population, Agriculture, and Climate Change in a Semi-Arid Region.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, E. L.; Hogue, T. S.; Anderson, A. M.; Read, L.

2015-12-01

In semi-arid basins across the world, the gap between water supply and demand is growing due to climate change, population growth, and shifts in agriculture and unconventional energy development. Water conservation efforts among residential and industrial water users, recycling and reuse techniques and innovative regulatory frameworks for water management strive to mitigate this gap, however, the extent of these strategies are often difficult to quantify and not included in modeling water allocations. Decision support systems (DSS) are purposeful for supporting water managers in making informed decisions when competing demands create the need to optimize water allocation between sectors. One region of particular interest is the semi-arid region of the South Platte River basin in northeastern Colorado, where anthropogenic and climatic effects are expected to increase the gap between water supply and demand in the near future. Specifically, water use in the South Platte is impacted by several high-intensity activities, including unconventional energy development, i.e. hydraulic fracturing, and large withdrawals for agriculture; these demands are in addition to a projected population increase of 100% by 2050. The current work describes the development of a DSS for the South Platte River basin, using the Water Evaluation and Planning system software (WEAP) to explore scenarios of how variation in future water use in the energy, agriculture, and municipal sectors will impact water allocation decisions. Detailed data collected on oil and gas water use in the Niobrara shale play will be utilized to predict future sector use. We also employ downscaled climate projections for the region to quantify the potential range of water availability in the basin under each scenario, and observe whether or not, and to what extent, climate may impact management decisions at the basin level.

How will climate change affect the potential distribution of Eurasian Tree Sparrows Passer montanus in North America?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graham, Jim; Jarnevich, Catherine; Young, Nick; Newman, Greg; Stohlgren, Thomas

2011-01-01

Habitat suitability models have been used to predict the present and future potential distribution of a variety of species. Eurasian tree sparrows Passer montanus, native to Eurasia, have established populations in other parts of the world. In North America, their current distribution is limited to a relatively small region around its original introduction to St. Louis, Missouri. We combined data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility with current and future climate data to create habitat suitability models using Maxent for this species. Under projected climate change scenarios, our models show that the distribution and range of the Eurasian tree sparrow could increase as far as the Pacific Northwest and Newfoundland. This is potentially important information for prioritizing the management and control of this non-native species.

Climate change implications and use of early warning systems for global dust storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harriman, Lindsey M.

2014-01-01

With increased changes in land cover and global climate, early detection and warning of dust storms in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts. Human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns influence dust storms. More research is needed to analyse these factors of dust mobilisation to create more certainty for the fate of vulnerable populations and ecosystems in the future. Early warning and communication systems, when in place and effectively implemented, can offer some relief to these vulnerable areas. As an issue that affects many regions of the world, there is a profound need to understand the potential changes and ultimately create better early warning systems for dust storms.

A Future-Based Risk Assessment for the Survivability of Long Range Strike Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

Aeronautics and Space Administration ( NASA ) investigated alternative futures to help generate a viable science strategy to address the future aerospace...World American World View ΔTeK World Power Grid Name 1 Global Exponential Dispersed DIGITAL CACOPHONY 2 Global Exponential Concentrated STAR TREK ...The United States has become the “United Kingdom of the Twenty-first Century.” 2.2.3. NASA Study (1997) In the NASA study, the National Research

Substance Use in Muslim Culture: Social and Generational Changes in Acceptance and Practice in Jordan.

PubMed

Mauseth, Kira B; Skalisky, Jordan; Clark, Noël E; Kaffer, Ray

2016-08-01

Through narrative analysis, this paper explores the changes in acceptance of and response to substance use in Muslim culture by evaluating data collected in qualitative interviews in Jordan in 2013. What is known and unknown about substance use in Muslim culture throughout the Arab world from previous research findings provides a foundation from which to explore new perspectives and compare themes between younger and older generations in Jordan. Trends of social change and behavioral expression influenced by dramatic political and social upheaval in the Arab world in the last 5 years will also be evaluated for the way in which they may be influencing both substance use and its acceptance among young adults in this population. Recommendations for future research and work in this area are also provided based on these findings.

Vitamin D receptor gene polymorphisms and susceptibility M. tuberculosis in native Paraguayans.

PubMed

Wilbur, Alicia K; Kubatko, Laura Salter; Hurtado, Ana M; Hill, Kim R; Stone, Anne C

2007-07-01

Tuberculosis (TB) is a significant health problem for most of the world's populations, and prevalence among indigenous groups is typically higher than among their nonindigenous neighbors. Native South Americans experience high rates of TB, but while research in several other world populations indicates that susceptibility is multifactorial, polygenic, and population-specific, little work has been undertaken to investigate factors involved in Native American susceptibility. We conducted a family-based association study to examine immunologically relevant polymorphisms of a candidate gene, the vitamin D receptor, in conjunction with three measures of TB status in two Native Paraguayan populations, the Aché and the Avá. This is the first large-scale genetic analysis of Native South Americans to examine susceptibility to both infection and disease following exposure to M. tuberculosis. These two types of susceptibility reflect differences in innate and acquired immunity that have proven difficult to elucidate in other populations. Our results indicate that among the Aché, the FokI F allele protects individuals from infection, while the TaqI t allele protects against active disease but not infection. In particular, FF homozygotes are 17 times more likely to test positive for exposure to TB, but no more likely to have ever been diagnosed with active TB. TT individuals are 42 times less likely to mount a delayed-type hypersensitivity response, and the T allele was significantly more likely to have been transmitted to offspring who have been diagnosed with active TB. This ongoing research is of vital importance to indigenous groups of the Americas, because if there is a population-specific component to TB susceptibility, it will likely prove most effective to incorporate this into future treatment and prevention strategies.

Genetic variation in Tunisia in the context of human diversity worldwide.

PubMed

Cherni, Lotfi; Pakstis, Andrew J; Boussetta, Sami; Elkamel, Sarra; Frigi, Sabeh; Khodjet-El-Khil, Houssein; Barton, Alison; Haigh, Eva; Speed, William C; Ben Ammar Elgaaied, Amel; Kidd, Judith R; Kidd, Kenneth K

2016-09-01

North Africa has a complex demographic history of migrations from within Africa, Europe, and the Middle East. However, population genetic studies, especially for autosomal genetic markers, are few relative to other world regions. We examined autosomal markers for eight Tunisian and Libyan populations in order to place them in a global context. Data were collected by TaqMan on 399 autosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms on 331 individuals from Tunisia and Libya. These data were combined with data on the same SNPs previously typed on 2585 individuals from 57 populations from around the world. Where meaningful, close by SNPs were combined into multiallelic haplotypes. Data were evaluated by clustering, principal components, and population tree analyses. For a subset of 102 SNPs, data from the literature on seven additional North African populations were included in analyses. Average heterozygosity of the North African populations is high relative to our global samples, consistent with a complex demographic history. The Tunisian and Libyan samples form a discrete cluster in the global and regional views and can be separated from sub-Sahara, Middle East, and Europe. Within Tunisia the Nebeur and Smar are outlier groups. Across North Africa, pervasive East-West geographical patterns were not found. Known historical migrations and invasions did not displace or homogenize the genetic variation in the region but rather enriched it. Even a small region like Tunisia contains considerable genetic diversity. Future studies across North Africa have the potential to increase our understanding of the historical demographic factors influencing the region. Am J Phys Anthropol 161:62-71, 2016. © 2016 The Authors American Journal of Physical Anthropology Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 The Authors American Journal of Physical Anthropology Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Climate-Population Nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging Degradation Trends in Rangeland and Pastoral Livelihood Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pricope, N. G.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Lopez-Carr, D.

2014-12-01

Increasing climate variability and extreme weather conditions along with declining trends in both rainfall and temperature represent major risk factors affecting agricultural production and food security in many regions of the world. We identify regions where significant rainfall decrease from 1979-2011 over the entire continent of Africa couples with significant human population density increase. The rangelands of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia in the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions, yet have significantly increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Vegetation in this region is characterized by a variable mosaic of land covers, generally dominated by grasslands necessary for agro-pastoralism, interspersed by woody vegetation. Recent assessments indicate that widespread degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using two underutilized MODIS products, we observe significant changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade all across the East African Horn. We observe significant vegetation browning trends in areas experiencing drying precipitation trends in addition to increasing population pressures. We also found that the drying precipitation trends only partially statistically explain the vegetation browning trends, further indicating that other factors such as population pressures and land use changes are responsible for the observed declining vegetation health. Furthermore, we show that the general vegetation browning trends persist even during years with normal rainfall conditions such as 2012, indicating potential long-term degradation of rangelands on which approximately 10 million people depend. These findings have serious implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting as well as for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected to continue increasing against a backdrop of drying climate trends.

Climate change impact assessment on food security in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ettema, Janneke; Aldrian, Edvin; de Bie, Kees; Jetten, Victor; Mannaerts, Chris

2013-04-01

As Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous country, food security is a persistent challenge. The potential impact of future climate change on the agricultural sector needs to be addressed in order to allow early implementation of mitigation strategies. The complex island topography and local sea-land-air interactions cannot adequately be represented in large scale General Climate Models (GCMs) nor visualized by TRMM. Downscaling is needed. Using meteorological observations and a simple statistical downscaling tool, local future projections are derived from state-of-the-art, large-scale GCM scenarios, provided by the CMIP5 project. To support the agriculture sector, providing information on especially rainfall and temperature variability is essential. Agricultural production forecast is influenced by several rain and temperature factors, such as rainy and dry season onset, offset and length, but also by daily and monthly minimum and maximum temperatures and its rainfall amount. A simple and advanced crop model will be used to address the sensitivity of different crops to temperature and rainfall variability, present-day and future. As case study area, Java Island is chosen as it is fourth largest island in Indonesia but contains more than half of the nation's population and dominates it politically and economically. The objective is to identify regions at agricultural risk due to changing patterns in precipitation and temperature.

Quantifying the Worldwide Digital Divide: The Emergence of Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cottrell, Roger

2011-04-01

Africa is huge with over 1 billion people, speaking over 1000 languages, with huge rainforests and vast deserts. Yet as we shall show it badly lags behind the rest of the world in its Internet performance. This talk will show how we measure the Internet Performance. These measurements cover countries of the world containing over 99% of the world's Internet connected population. Using these measurements we illustrate the overall Internet performance for the world in particular for: throughput, losses, jitter, Round Trip Times, availability etc. We will demonstrate the performance trends for the last 13 years, in particular illustrating how Africa is not only behind all other regions and one to two decades behind developed regions, but worse is falling further behind. We also compare our results with the International Telecommunications Union's ICT Development Index (IDI) that measures the development for over 150 countries. We then focus on the promising emerging situation in Africa following the dramatic increases in performance due to submarine fibre connectivity that was driven partially by soccer's 2010 World Cup in South Africa. We conclude that despite the many challenges in Africa, there is promising potential for a dramatic improvement in the near future, but there is still a long way to go.

[Trends and characteristics of urbanization in the Third World, the day before yesterday to the day after tomorrow (1900-2025)].

PubMed

Bairoch, P

1983-01-01

This article reviews the history of Third World urbanization, examines the evolution of the urban population from 1970-80 based on the 1st results of the 1980 round of censuses, and examines the prospects for urbanization through the end of the century and the year 2025. From 1910 to World War II the urban population in all Third World countries grew more rapidly than the total population. Both rates of growth were moderate compared to subsequent rates. Total Third World population grew by about .9%/year while the urban population grew at 2.2%/year. From 1950-80 total population grew at 2.2% and the urban population by 4.6%. The urban growth took place in the absence of economic developments capable of explaining or justifying it. Urban growth accounted in large part for the extraordinary increase in cereal importation to the Third World. In 1980 it was estimated that 26.5% of the population if Africa, 63.1% in Latin America, and 25.4% in Asian countries excluding China were urban. A characteristic of third World urbanization is the strong concentration of population in large cities; 43% of the urban population currently lives in cities with population of over 500,000. In Third World market countries, total population growth from 1970-80 is provisionally estimated at 2.5-2.6%/year, while according to UN estimates urban population growth amounted to 4.2%/year and other estimates place population growth amounted to 4.2%/year and other estimates place it at 4.4%/year. The growth of the urban population in China from 1970-80 was estimated at 3.3%/year by the UN. During the 75 years from 1950-2025, the Third World urban population is expected to multiply by a factor of 16, from less than 200 million to over 3 billion. The urban population in 2025 projected by the UN amounts to 837 million in Africa, 724 million in Latin America, and 1.6 billion in Asian market countries, but there is some suggestion that the projection errs on the low side. Increases in food production on the order of 1.9%/year will be required through 2025 to feed the new urban population at the current level. Around the year 2000, cities of 1 million or more will contain about 46% of the urban population and 21% of the total population. The largest Third World cities will continue to grow despite their poor living conditions and lack of economic justification, and the low incomes of the inhabitants will increase the difficulty of improving living standards. Predictions as far ahead as 2025 are hazardous, but it is likely that the rate of growth of the largest cities will have abated somewhat.

Thermal tolerances of reef corals in the Gulf: a review of the potential for increasing coral survival and adaptation to climate change through assisted translocation.

PubMed

Coles, Steve L; Riegl, Bernhard M

2013-07-30

Corals in the Gulf withstand summer temperatures up to 10 °C higher than corals elsewhere and have recovered from extreme temperature events in 10 years or less. This heat-tolerance of Gulf corals has positive implications for the world's coral populations to adapt to increasing water temperatures. However, survival of Gulf corals has been severely tested by 35-37 °C temperatures five times in the last 15 years, each time causing extensive coral bleaching and mortality. Anticipated future temperature increases may therefore challenge survival of already highly stressed Gulf corals. Previously proposed translocation of Gulf corals to introduce temperature-adapted corals outside of the Gulf is assessed and determined to be problematical, and to be considered a tool of last resort. Coral culture and transplantation within the Gulf is feasible for helping maintain coral species populations and preserving genomes and adaptive capacities of Gulf corals that are endangered by future thermal stress events. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Women and development: future directions.

PubMed

1995-01-01

In 1995 the UN celebrated its 50th anniversary, and the Fourth World Conference on Women in Beijing was held. INSTRAW's acting director, Martha Duenas-Loza, gives her overview of INSTRAW's future role and identifies some major issues regarding the advancement of women. INSTRAW is mandated as a UN group to accomplish research on and training of women. Some initial findings are now becoming available. The delay was due to the attention given to pressing problems of health care, nutrition, and education. In the future the international community will not have the option of neglecting women's status issues, which currently are secondary concerns. Some urgent issues are identified as the impact of rapid population growth on the elderly in the world, particularly the majority of elderly women. Migration will have an increasing impact on economic and social infrastructures of all countries. Problems of the elderly must be addressed as individual components within development plans and programs. Other articles in this issue of "INSTRAW News" discuss the situation of elderly women and women migrants. New efforts focus on a new phase of research on women's access to credit. The research aim is to analyze the experiences of current credit mechanisms, to assess the impact on individuals and families, and to consider gender effects. A progress report is available in this issue on gender statistics and a valuation of unpaid work by women. A new module is available for training women in environmental management; a description of this module is available in this issue. The new model is based on prior modules on energy and water, but includes improvements. The future agenda reflects the complexity of problems and solutions today and in the future.

World Population and Beyond: A Teaching Strategy for Global Studies [And] Interchange. Population Education Newsletter. Vol. 7, No. 2, May 1978 [And] 1977 World Population Data Sheet.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clark, Leon E.; And Others

The unit contains a teacher's guide, student reading materials, and data sheets about a variety of worldwide demographic and economic variables. Designed for students in junior high through college, its goals are to encourage students to analyze the causes and consequences of world population and economic trends, and to detect interrelationships…

Illustrative Projections of World Populations to the 21st Century. Current Population Reports, Special Studies Series P-23, No. 79.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Maurice J., Ed.; O'Connell, Martin, Ed.

The document presents high, medium, and low projections of the world's population for the year 2000. The objective of the study is to determine demands on natural resources and the environment which will be brought about by changes in the world's population. The document is presented in three major sections. Section I provides an overview of the…

Demographic Stress and Governance: The Influence of Nigerian Population Growth on the Risk of Civil Conflict

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-01

increase the risk of conflict? Can good governance either prevent or mitigate such an increased risk? Although the annual rate of world population...growth is declining, the United Nations projects world population to reach a staggering 9.6 billion by 2050. In that time, Nigeria is expected to...63 Illustrations Figure 1 World Population in Increments of One Billion ......................................................9 2

Why Population in 1974?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Connor, Marion

1974-01-01

Discusses the impact of world population growth leading to the establishment of the United Nations Fund for Population Activities and to the declaration of 1974 as World Population Year. Previews some of the parameters and interconnecting interests to be considered during this year of intensive population study. (JR)

Evaluation of World Population-Weighted Effective Dose due to Cosmic Ray Exposure

PubMed Central

Sato, Tatsuhiko

2016-01-01

After the release of the Report of the United Nations Scientific Committee of the Effects of Atomic Radiation in 2000 (UNSCEAR2000), it became commonly accepted that the world population-weighted effective dose due to cosmic-ray exposure is 0.38 mSv, with a range from 0.3 to 2 mSv. However, these values were derived from approximate projections of altitude and geographic dependences of the cosmic-ray dose rates as well as the world population. This study hence re-evaluated the population-weighted annual effective doses and their probability densities for the entire world as well as for 230 individual nations, using a sophisticated cosmic-ray flux calculation model in tandem with detailed grid population and elevation databases. The resulting world population-weighted annual effective dose was determined to be 0.32 mSv, which is smaller than the UNSCEAR’s evaluation by 16%, with a range from 0.23 to 0.70 mSv covering 99% of the world population. These values were noted to vary with the solar modulation condition within a range of approximately 15%. All assessed population-weighted annual effective doses as well as their statistical information for each nation are provided in the supplementary files annexed to this report. These data improve our understanding of cosmic-ray radiation exposures to populations globally. PMID:27650664

Biomass in a petrochemical world

PubMed Central

Roddy, Dermot J.

2013-01-01

The world's increasingly voracious appetite for fossil fuels is driven by fast-growing populations and ever-rising aspirations for the lifestyles and standard of living exemplified in the developed world. Forecasts for higher electricity consumption, more comfortable living environments (via heating or cooling) and greater demand for transport fuels are well known. Similar growth in demand is projected for petrochemical-based products in the form of man-made fibres for clothing, ubiquitous plastic artefacts, cosmetics, etc. All drawing upon the same finite oil, gas and coal feedstocks. Biomass can, in principle, substitute for all of these feedstocks. Although ultimately finite, biomass resources can be expanded and renewed if this is a societal priority. This paper examines the projected growth of an energy-intensive international petrochemicals industry, considers its demand for both utilities and feedstocks, and considers the extent to which biomass can substitute for fossil fuels. The scope of this study includes biomass component extraction, direct chemical conversion, thermochemical conversion and biochemical conversion. Noting that the petrochemicals industry consumes around 10 per cent of the world's fossil fuels as feedstocks and almost as much again in utilities, various strategies for addressing future demand are considered. The need for long-term infrastructure and logistics planning is highlighted. PMID:24427511

The World Health Organization World Mental Health Survey Initiative.

PubMed

Kessler, Ronald C; Haro, Josep Maria; Heeringa, Steven G; Pennell, Beth-Ellen; Ustün, T Bedirhan

2006-01-01

To present an overview of the World Health Organization World Mental Health (WMH) Survey Initiative. The discussion draws on knowledge gleaned from the authors' participation as principals in WMH. WMH has carried out community epidemiological surveys in more than two dozen countries with more than 200,000 completed interviews. Additional surveys are in progress. Clinical reappraisal studies embedded in WMH surveys have been used to develop imputation rules to adjust prevalence estimates for within- and between-country variation in accuracy. WMH interviews include detailed information about sub-threshold manifestations to address the problem of rigid categorical diagnoses not applying equally to all countries. Investigations are now underway of targeted substantive issues. Despite inevitable limitations imposed by existing diagnostic systems and variable expertise in participating countries, WMH has produced an unprecedented amount of high-quality data on the general population cross-national epidemiology of mental disorders. WMH collaborators are in thoughtful and subtle investigations of cross-national variation in validity of diagnostic assessments and a wide range of important substantive topics. Recognizing that WMH is not definitive, finally, insights from this round of surveys are being used to carry out methodological studies aimed at improving the quality of future investigations.

Plant genetics, sustainable agriculture and global food security.

PubMed

Ronald, Pamela

2011-05-01

The United States and the world face serious societal challenges in the areas of food, environment, energy, and health. Historically, advances in plant genetics have provided new knowledge and technologies needed to address these challenges. Plant genetics remains a key component of global food security, peace, and prosperity for the foreseeable future. Millions of lives depend upon the extent to which crop genetic improvement can keep pace with the growing global population, changing climate, and shrinking environmental resources. While there is still much to be learned about the biology of plant-environment interactions, the fundamental technologies of plant genetic improvement, including crop genetic engineering, are in place, and are expected to play crucial roles in meeting the chronic demands of global food security. However, genetically improved seed is only part of the solution. Such seed must be integrated into ecologically based farming systems and evaluated in light of their environmental, economic, and social impacts-the three pillars of sustainable agriculture. In this review, I describe some lessons learned, over the last decade, of how genetically engineered crops have been integrated into agricultural practices around the world and discuss their current and future contribution to sustainable agricultural systems.

Top 10 principles for designing healthy coastal ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gaydos, Joseph K.; Dierauf, Leslie; Kirby, Grant; Brosnan, Deborah; Gilardi, Kirsten; Davis, Gary E.

2008-01-01

Like other coastal zones around the world, the inland sea ecosystem of Washington (USA) and British Columbia (Canada), an area known as the Salish Sea, is changing under pressure from a growing human population, conversion of native forest and shoreline habitat to urban development, toxic contamination of sediments and species, and overharvest of resources. While billions of dollars have been spent trying to restore other coastal ecosystems around the world, there still is no successful model for restoring estuarine or marine ecosystems like the Salish Sea. Despite the lack of a guiding model, major ecological principles do exist that should be applied as people work to design the Salish Sea and other large marine ecosystems for the future. We suggest that the following 10 ecological principles serve as a foundation for educating the public and for designing a healthy Salish Sea and other coastal ecosystems for future generations: (1) Think ecosystem: political boundaries are arbitrary; (2) Account for ecosystem connectivity; (3) Understand the food web; (4) Avoid fragmentation; (5) Respect ecosystem integrity; (6) Support nature's resilience; (7) Value nature: it's money in your pocket; (8) Watch wildlife health; (9) Plan for extremes; and (10) Share the knowledge.

The Sulu-Sulawesi Sea: environmental and socioeconomic status, future prognosis and ameliorative policy options.

PubMed

DeVantier, Lyndon; Alcala, Angel; Wilkinson, Clive

2004-02-01

The Sulu-Sulawesi Sea, with neighboring Indonesian Seas and South China Sea, lies at the center of the world's tropical marine biodiversity. Encircled by 3 populous, developing nations, the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia, the Sea and its adjacent coastal and terrestrial ecosystems, supports ca. 33 million people, most with subsistence livelihoods heavily reliant on its renewable natural resources. These resources are being impacted severely by rapid population growth (> 2% yr-1, with expected doubling by 2035) and widespread poverty, coupled with increasing international market demand and rapid technological changes, compounded by inefficiencies in governance and a lack of awareness and/or acceptance of some laws among local populations, particularly in parts of the Philippines and Indonesia. These key root causes all contribute to illegal practices and corruption, and are resulting in severe resource depletion and degradation of water catchments, river, lacustrine, estuarine, coastal, and marine ecosystems. The Sulu-Sulawesi Sea forms a major geopolitical focus, with porous borders, transmigration, separatist movements, piracy, and illegal fishing all contributing to environmental degradation, human suffering and political instability, and inhibiting strong trilateral support for interventions. This review analyzes these multifarious environmental and socioeconomic impacts and their root causes, provides a future prognosis of status by 2020, and recommends policy options aimed at amelioration through sustainable management and development.

Investigation of potential sea level rise impact on the Nile Delta, Egypt using digital elevation models.

PubMed

Hasan, Emad; Khan, Sadiq Ibrahim; Hong, Yang

2015-10-01

In this study, the future impact of Sea Level Rise (SLR) on the Nile Delta region in Egypt is assessed by evaluating the elevations of two freely available Digital Elevation Models (DEMs): the SRTM and the ASTER-GDEM-V2. The SLR is a significant worldwide dilemma that has been triggered by recent climatic changes. In Egypt, the Nile Delta is projected to face SLR of 1 m by the end of the 21th century. In order to provide a more accurate assessment of the future SLR impact on Nile Delta's land and population, this study corrected the DEM's elevations by using linear regression model with ground elevations from GPS survey. The information for the land cover types and future population numbers were derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover and the Gridded Population of the Worlds (GPWv3) datasets respectively. The DEM's vertical accuracies were assessed using GPS measurements and the uncertainty analysis revealed that the SRTM-DEM has positive bias of 2.5 m, while the ASTER-GDEM-V2 showed a positive bias of 0.8 m. The future inundated land cover areas and the affected population were illustrated based on two SLR scenarios of 0.5 m and 1 m. The SRTM DEM data indicated that 1 m SLR will affect about 3900 km(2) of cropland, 1280 km(2) of vegetation, 205 km(2) of wetland, 146 km(2) of urban areas and cause more than 6 million people to lose their houses. The overall vulnerability assessment using ASTER-GDEM-V2 indicated that the influence of SLR will be intense and confined along the coastal areas. For instance, the data indicated that 1 m SLR will inundate about 580 Km(2) (6%) of the total land cover areas and approximately 887 thousand people will be relocated. Accordingly, the uncertainty analysis of the DEM's elevations revealed that the ASTER-GDEM-V2 dataset product was considered the best to determine the future impact of SLR on the Nile Delta region.

Future Freshwater Stress on Small Islands: Population, Aridity and Global Warming Targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karnauskas, K. B.; Schleussner, C. F.; Donnelly, J. P.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2017-12-01

Small island developing states (SIDS) face multiple threats from anthropogenic climate change, including potential changes in freshwater resource availability. Future freshwater stress, including geographic and seasonal variability, has important implications for climate change adaptation scenarios for vulnerable human populations living on islands across the world ocean. Due to a mismatch in spatial scale between SIDS landforms and the horizontal resolution of global climate models (GCMs), SIDS are mostly unaccounted for in GCMs that are used to make future projections of global climate change and its regional impacts. Specific approaches are required to address this gap between broad-scale model projections and regional, policy-relevant outcomes. Here we apply a recently developed methodology to project future changes in aridity in combination with population projections associated with different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to evaluate overall changes in freshwater stress in SIDS at warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial levels. By accounting for evaporative demand a posteriori, we reveal a robust yet spatially variable tendency towards increasing aridity for 16 million people living on islands by mid-century. Although about half of the islands are projected to experience increased rainfall—predominantly in the deep tropics—projected changes in evaporation are more uniform, shifting the global distribution of changes in island freshwater balance towards greater aridity. In many cases, the magnitude of projected drying is comparable to the amplitude of the estimated observed interannual variability, with important consequences for extreme events. While we find that future population growth will dominate changes in projected freshwater stress especially towards the end of the century, projected changes in aridity are found to compound freshwater stress for the vast majority of SIDS. Particularly across the Caribbean region, a substantial fraction ( 25%) of the large overall freshwater stress projected under 2°C at 2030 can be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Our findings add to a growing body of literature on the difference in climate impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C and underscore the need for regionally specific analysis.

Fatty acid intakes of children and adolescents are not in line with the dietary intake recommendations for future cardiovascular health: a systematic review of dietary intake data from thirty countries.

PubMed

Harika, Rajwinder K; Cosgrove, Maeve C; Osendarp, Saskia J M; Verhoef, Petra; Zock, Peter L

2011-08-01

Fatty acid composition of the diet may influence cardiovascular risk from early childhood onwards. The objective of the present study was to perform a systematic review of dietary fat and fatty acid intakes in children and adolescents from different countries around the world and compare these with the population nutrient intake goals for prevention of chronic diseases as defined by the WHO (2003). Data on fat and fatty acid intake were mainly collected from national dietary surveys and from population studies all published during or after 1995. These were identified by searching PubMed, and through nutritionists at local Unilever offices in different countries. Fatty acid intake data from thirty countries mainly from developed countries were included. In twenty-eight of the thirty countries, mean SFA intakes were higher than the recommended maximum of 10 % energy, whereas in twenty-one out of thirty countries mean PUFA intakes were below recommended (6-10 % energy). More and better intake data are needed, in particular for developing regions of the world, and future research should determine the extent to which improvement of dietary fatty acid intake in childhood translates into lower CHD risk in later life. Despite these limitations, the available data clearly indicate that in the majority of the countries providing data on fatty acid intake, less than half of the children and adolescents meet the SFA and PUFA intake goals that are recommended for the prevention of chronic diseases.

Planet Earth, 1984-2034: A Demographic Vision.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bouvier, Leon F.

1984-01-01

In recognition of the 1984 World Population Conference, this booklet examines the current state of world population and presents speculations on what it might be 50 years from now. World population, now close to 4.8 billion and growing at 1.8 percent a year, is being shaped by three demographic phenomena: prolonged below-replacement fertility in…

The Overpopulation Myth. Series on Public Issues No. 4.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saving, Thomas R.

In this booklet, one of a series intended to apply economic principles to major social and political issues of the day, it is argued that although doomsayers claim that world population growth is threatening the ability of the world to feed itself and that drastic measures should be taken to curb population growth, the world population situation…

Russia and the United States: Future Implications of Historical Relationships

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-04-01

paper relates the theory to the current unipolar international structure and states how the U.S.-Russian relationship could proceed in the future...explained by realist states working inside of the ―capitalist world system.‖ The paper relates the theory to the current unipolar international...inside a world system. One theory of the world system is based on the concept of a capitalist world economy whose efficiency-seeking transnational

Future generations, environmental ethics, and global environmental change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tonn, B.E.

1994-12-31

The elements of a methodology to be employed by the global community to investigate the consequences of global environmental change upon future generations and global ecosystems are outlined in this paper. The methodology is comprised of two major components: A possible future worlds model; and a formal, citizen-oriented process to judge whether the possible future worlds potentially inheritable by future generations meet obligational standards. A broad array of descriptors of future worlds can be encompassed within this framework, including survival of ecosystems and other species and satisfaction of human concerns. The methodology expresses fundamental psychological motivations and human myths journey,more » renewal, mother earth, and being-in-nature-and incorporates several viewpoints on obligations to future generations-maintaining options, fairness, humility, and the cause of humanity. The methodology overcomes several severe drawbacks of the economic-based methods most commonly used for global environmental policy analysis.« less

The LIBERTY study: Design of a prospective, observational, multicenter trial to evaluate the acute and long-term clinical and economic outcomes of real-world endovascular device interventions in treating peripheral artery disease.

PubMed

Adams, George L; Mustapha, Jihad; Gray, William; Hargus, Nick J; Martinsen, Brad J; Ansel, Gary; Jaff, Michael R

2016-04-01

Most peripheral artery disease (PAD) clinical device trials are supported by commercial manufacturers and designed for regulatory device approval, with extensive inclusion/exclusion criteria to support homogeneous patient populations. High-risk patients with advanced disease, including critical limb ischemia (CLI), are often excluded leading to difficulty in translating trial results into real-world clinical practice. As a result, physicians have no direct guidance regarding the use of endovascular devices. There is a need for objectively assessed studies to evaluate clinical, functional, and economic outcomes in PAD patient populations. LIBERTY is a prospective, observational, multicenter study sponsored by Cardiovascular Systems Inc (St Paul, MN) to evaluate procedural and long-term clinical and economic outcomes of endovascular device interventions in patients with symptomatic lower extremity PAD. Approximately 1,200 patients will be enrolled and followed up to 5 years: 500 patients in the "Claudicant Rutherford 2-3" arm, 600 in the "CLI Rutherford 4-5" arm, and 100 in the "CLI Rutherford 6" arm. The study will use 4 core laboratories for independent analysis and will evaluate the following: procedural and lesion success, rates of major adverse events, duplex ultrasound interpretations, wound status, quality of life, 6-minute walk test, and economic analysis. The LIBERTY Patient Risk Score(s) will be developed as a clinical predictor of outcomes to provide guidance for interventions in this patient population. LIBERTY will investigate real-world PAD patients treated with endovascular revascularization with rigorous study guidelines and independent oversight of outcomes. This study will provide observational, all-comer patient clinical data to guide future endovascular therapy. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nutrient resources for crop production in the tropics

PubMed Central

Vlek, P. L. G.; Kühne, R. F.; Denich, M.

1997-01-01

For the foreseeable future a majority of the population, and almost all the mal- and under-nourished, will continue to be found in the tropics and subtropics. Food security in these parts of the world will have to be met largely from local resources. The productivity of the land is to a large extent determined by the fertlity of the soil, which in turn is mostly determined by its organic matter content and stored nutrients. Soil organic matter is readily lost when organic matter inputs are reduced upon cultivation and more so upon intensification. The concomitant loss of topsoil and possible exposure of subsoil acidity may cause further soil degradation.
Plant nutrients to replenish what is yearly taken from the soil to meet the demands for food and fibre amount to 230 million tonnes (Mt). Current fertilizer consumption stands at about 130 Mt of N, P2O5,and K2O, supplemented by an estimated 90 Mt of N from biological nitrogen fixation worldwide. Although 80 per cent of the population lives in the developing world, only half the world's fertilizer is consumed there. Yet, as much as 50% of the increase in agricultural productivity in the developing world is due to the adoption of fertilizers. World population growth will cause a doubling in these nutrients requirements for the developing world by 2020, which, in the likely case of inadequate production, will need to be met from soil reserves. Because expansion of the cultivable land area is reaching its limits, the reliance on nutrient inputs and their efficient use is bound to grow.
With current urban expansion, nutrients in harvested products are increasingly lost from the rural environment as a whole. Estimates of soil nutrient depletion rates for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are alarmingly high. The situation may be more favourable in Latin America and Asia where fertilizer inputs are tenfold those of SSA. Closing the nutrient cycle at a community level in rural areas may be tedious; on an inter-regional level it is associated with considerable costs of collection, detoxification and transportation to the farms. Yet, at the rate at which some of the non-renewable resources such as phosphorus and potassium are being exploited, recycling of these nutrients will soon be required.

Use of Future Scenarios as a Pedagogical Approach for Science Teacher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paige, Kathryn; Lloyd, David

2016-01-01

Futures studies is usually a transdisciplinary study and as such embraces the physical world of the sciences and system sciences and the subjective world of individuals and cultures, as well as the time dimension--past, present and futures. Science education, where student interests, opportunities and challenges often manifest themselves, can…

Projected distributions and diversity of flightless ground beetles within the Australian Wet Tropics and their environmental correlates.

PubMed

Staunton, Kyran M; Robson, Simon K A; Burwell, Chris J; Reside, April E; Williams, Stephen E

2014-01-01

With the impending threat of climate change, greater understanding of patterns of species distributions and richness and the environmental factors driving them are required for effective conservation efforts. Species distribution models enable us to not only estimate geographic extents of species and subsequent patterns of species richness, but also generate hypotheses regarding environmental factors determining these spatial patterns. Projected changes in climate can then be used to predict future patterns of species distributions and richness. We created distribution models for most of the flightless ground beetles (Carabidae) within the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area of Australia, a major component of regionally endemic invertebrates. Forty-three species were modelled and the environmental correlates of these distributions and resultant patterns of species richness were examined. Flightless ground beetles generally inhabit upland areas characterised by stable, cool and wet environmental conditions. These distribution and richness patterns are best explained using the time-stability hypothesis as this group's primary habitat, upland rainforest, is considered to be the most stable regional habitat. Projected changes in distributions indicate that as upward shifts in distributions occur, species currently confined to lower and drier mountain ranges will be more vulnerable to climate change impacts than those restricted to the highest and wettest mountains. Distribution models under projected future climate change suggest that there will be reductions in range size, population size and species richness under all emission scenarios. Eighty-eight per cent of species modelled are predicted to decline in population size by over 80%, for the most severe emission scenario by the year 2080. These results suggest that flightless ground beetles are among the most vulnerable taxa to climate change impacts so far investigated in the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area. These findings have dramatic implications for all other flightless insect taxa and the future biodiversity of this region.

Projected Distributions and Diversity of Flightless Ground Beetles within the Australian Wet Tropics and Their Environmental Correlates

PubMed Central

Staunton, Kyran M.; Robson, Simon K. A.; Burwell, Chris J.; Reside, April E.; Williams, Stephen E.

2014-01-01

With the impending threat of climate change, greater understanding of patterns of species distributions and richness and the environmental factors driving them are required for effective conservation efforts. Species distribution models enable us to not only estimate geographic extents of species and subsequent patterns of species richness, but also generate hypotheses regarding environmental factors determining these spatial patterns. Projected changes in climate can then be used to predict future patterns of species distributions and richness. We created distribution models for most of the flightless ground beetles (Carabidae) within the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area of Australia, a major component of regionally endemic invertebrates. Forty-three species were modelled and the environmental correlates of these distributions and resultant patterns of species richness were examined. Flightless ground beetles generally inhabit upland areas characterised by stable, cool and wet environmental conditions. These distribution and richness patterns are best explained using the time-stability hypothesis as this group’s primary habitat, upland rainforest, is considered to be the most stable regional habitat. Projected changes in distributions indicate that as upward shifts in distributions occur, species currently confined to lower and drier mountain ranges will be more vulnerable to climate change impacts than those restricted to the highest and wettest mountains. Distribution models under projected future climate change suggest that there will be reductions in range size, population size and species richness under all emission scenarios. Eighty-eight per cent of species modelled are predicted to decline in population size by over 80%, for the most severe emission scenario by the year 2080. These results suggest that flightless ground beetles are among the most vulnerable taxa to climate change impacts so far investigated in the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area. These findings have dramatic implications for all other flightless insect taxa and the future biodiversity of this region. PMID:24586362

The association between emotions and eating behaviour in an obese population with binge eating disorder.

PubMed

Nicholls, W; Devonport, T J; Blake, M

2016-01-01

There is utility in understanding the antecedents of binge eating (BE), with a view to explaining poorer weight loss treatment responses in this subgroup. A systematic review was completed according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines with the aim of exploring associations between emotions and eating behaviour in a population affected by obesity and binge eating disorder (BED). A comprehensive literature search of four electronic databases (2004-2014) yielded 15 studies for inclusion. Included studies performed poorly on data quality analysis with respect to controlling for confounding variables, and sample size. Included papers largely focused on negative emotions as antecedents of BE; depression was consistently associated with a BED-obese classification and BE. Negative mood, sadness, tension and instability of emotions were found to be antecedents of BE in an adult BED-obese sample. However, findings were mixed regarding the role of stress, anger and positive emotions within the BED-obese population. Recommendations are presented for the identification of BED, and ecologically valid experimental designs that further understanding of the complex and varied emotions that associate with BE. The implications of these and other limitations for both researchers and practitioners are discussed. The paper concludes with recommendations for future research alongside suggestions for practitioners. © 2015 World Obesity. © 2015 World Obesity.

Monitoring the change of coastal zones from space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cazenave, A. A.; Le Cozannet, G.; Benveniste, J.; Woodworth, P. L.

2017-12-01

The world's coastal zones, where an important fraction of the world population is currently living, are under serious threat because of coastal erosion, cyclones, storms, and salinization of estuaries and coastal aquifers. In the future, these hazards are expected to increase due to the combined effects of sea level rise, climate change, human activities and population increase. The response of coastal environments to natural and anthropogenic forcing factors (including climate change) depends on the characteristics of the forcing agents, as well as on the internal properties of the coastal systems, that remain poorly known and mostly un-surveyed at global scale. To better understand changes affecting coastal zones and to provide useful information to decision makers, various types of observations with global coverage need to be collected and analysed. Observations from space appear as an important complement to existing in situ observing systems (e.g., regional tide gauge networks). In this presentation, we discuss the benefit of systematic coastal monitoring from space, addressing both observations of forcing agents and of the coastal response. We highlight the need for a global coastal sea level data set based on retracked nadir altimetry missions and new SAR technology.

Global Patterns in Human Consumption of Net Primary Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Imhoff, Marc L.; Bounoua, Lahouari; Ricketts, Taylor; Loucks, Colby; Harriss, Robert; Lawrence William T.

2004-01-01

The human population and its consumption profoundly affect the Earth's ecosystems. A particularly compelling measure of humanity's cumulative impact is the fraction of the planet's net primary production that we appropriate for our Net primary production-the net amount of solar energy converted to plant organic matter through photosynthesis-can be measured in units of elemental carbon and represents the primary food energy source for the world's ecosystems. Human appropriation of net primary production, apart from leaving less for other species to use, alters the composition of the atmosphere, levels of biodiversity, flows within food webs and the provision of important primary production required by humans and compare it to the total amount generated on the landscape. We then derive a spatial ba!mce sheet of net primary production supply and demand for the world. We show that human appropriation of net primary production varies spatially from almost zero to many times the local primary production. These analyses reveal the uneven footprint of human consumption and related environmental impacts, indicate the degree to which human populations depend on net primary production "imports" and suggest policy options for slowing future growth of human appropriation of net primary production.

The challenges posed by radiation and radionuclide releases to the environment.

PubMed

Wenning, Richard J; Apitz, Sabine E; Backhaus, Thomas; Barnthouse, Lawrence; Batley, Graeme; Brooks, Bryan; Chapman, Peter M; Griffin, Michael; Kapustka, Lawrence; Landis, Wayne; Leung, Kenneth M Y; Linkov, Igor; Seager, Thomas P; Suter, Glenn; Tannenbaum, Lawrence

2011-07-01

The recent accident at the Fukushima I nuclear power plant in Japan (also known as Fukushima Daiichi) captured the world's attention and re-invigorated concerns about the safety of nuclear power technology. The Editors of Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management invited experts in the field to describe the primary issues associated with the control and release of radioactive materials to the environment, particularly those that are of importance to the health of the human populations and the ecological systems that populate our planet. This collection of invited short commentaries aims to inform on the safety of nuclear power plants damaged by natural disasters and provide a primer on the potential environmental impacts. The intent of these invited commentaries is not to fuel the excitement and fears about the Fukushima Daiichi incident; rather, it is to collect views and comments from some of the world's experts on the broad science and policy challenges raised by this event, and to provide high-level views on the science issues that surround this situation in order to improve our collective ability to avoid or at least minimize the consequences of future events. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.

Climate change and rising heat: population health implications for working people in Australia.

PubMed

Hanna, Elizabeth G; Kjellstrom, Tord; Bennett, Charmian; Dear, Keith

2011-03-01

The rapid rise in extreme heat events in Australia recently is already taking a health toll. Climate change scenarios predict increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events in the future, and population health may be significantly compromised for people who cannot reduce their heat exposure. Exposure to extreme heat presents a health hazard to all who are physically active, particularly outdoor workers and indoor workers with minimal access to cooling systems while working. At air temperatures close to (or beyond) the core body temperature of 37°C, body cooling via sweating is essential, and this mechanism is hampered by high air humidity. Heat exposure among elite athletes and the military has been investigated, whereas the impacts on workers remain largely unexplored, particularly in relation to future climate change. Workers span all age groups and diverse levels of fitness and health status, including people with higher than "normal" sensitivity to heat. In a hotter world, workers are likely to experience more heat stress and find it increasingly difficult to maintain productivity. Modeling of future climate change in Australia shows a substantial increase in the number of very hot days (>35°C) across the country. In this article, the authors characterize the health risks associated with heat exposure on working people and discuss future exposure risks as temperatures rise. Progress toward developing occupational health and safety guidelines for heat in Australia are summarized.

Changing ideas of global limits.

PubMed

Goddy, D

1984-03-02

In this discussion of changing ideas of global limits, attention is directed to world trade, moral restraint, and the "green revolution." A fresh look at the work of those who first considered population problems, e.gg., Malthur, can help make some sense of the population problems the world faces today. Malthus, writing in the late 1700s, concluded that population multiplies with each generation. He saw that food production was limited by the amount of available cropland and that the more people there are, the less food they will have to eat -- assuming that all available cropland is planted. This grim view of the future led Malthus to oppose government aid to the poor maintaining that such assistance would only encourage poor people to have large families. His solution was "moral restratin," seeing it as the duty of each individual to refrain from marriage until he was able to support his children. At the time this advice seemed cruel and Malthus was bitterly attacked by writers everywhere in Europe. Karl Marx and other ctitics of Malthus believed that poverty was caused by unjust governments and the selfishness of the rich. Marx clamied that the problem was too few jobs rather than too many people. The dire predictions of Malthus were soon forgotten as manufacturing industries began to transform the economies of Western Europe in the 1800s. Along with soaring economic growth came a host of developments that improved people's lives, e.g., better transportation, better sanitiation and nutrition, and better medicine. New inventions helped farmers fo produce more food. Next came the "demographic transition." Population grew quickly in Europe and North America as people became healthier and lived longer. Gradually, people in the industrial nations began deciding to have smaller families to enable them to afford an even higher living standard. By the late 1920s birthrates in Europe and the US had dropped so low that mention of the "population problem" usually referred to the threat of underpopulation. Following World War II, developing countries such as Mexico and India began to introduce modern medicine and sanitation, and death rates dropped and thepopulations of these countries mushroomed. Suddenly, world leaders were taking Malthus' warning seriously. In the 1970s scientists began to worry that people were using up the earth's resources and polluting the environment. 150 years after the death of Malthus there is little to make Malthus change his theory. 1 difference is that for the 1st time in history governments are working to control population growth.

A World View Sampler.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Willard, Timothy; And Others

1984-01-01

An overview of topics discussed at the World View '84 conference, sponsored by the World Future Society, is provided. Topics include technology, the economy, the Third World, the environment, world order, and outer space. (RM)

The effects of country-level population policy for enhancing adaptation to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunasekara, N. K.; Kazama, S.; Yamazaki, D.; Oki, T.

2012-08-01

The effectiveness of population policy scenarios in reducing the combined impacts of population change and climate change on water resources is explored. One no-policy scenario and two scenarios with population policy assumptions are employed in combination with water availability under the SRES scenarios A1b, B1 and A2 for the impact analysis. The population data used are from the World Bank. The river discharges per grid of horizontal resolution 0.5° are obtained from the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) of the University of Tokyo, Japan. Unlike the population scenarios utilized in the SRES emission scenarios and the newest Representative Concentration Pathways, the scenarios employed in this research are based, even after 2050, on country-level rather than regional growth assumptions. Our analysis implies that in combination with a more heterogeneous pattern of population changes across the world, a more convergent, environmentally friendly emissions scenario, such as B1, can result in a high-impact climate scenario, similar to A2, for the already water-stressed low latitudes. However, the effect of population change supersedes the changes in the climate scenarios. In 2100, Africa, Middle-East and parts of Asia are in extreme water-stress under all scenarios. For countries with high population momentum, the population policy scenario with fertility-reduction assumptions gained a maximum of 6.1 times the water availability in Niger and 5.3 times that in Uganda compared with the no-policy scenario. Most of these countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa. These countries represent 24.5% of the global population in the no-policy scenario and the scenario with fertility- reduction assumptions reduces it to 8.7% by 2100. This scenario is also effective at reducing the area under extreme water stress in these countries. However, the policy scenario with assumptions of population stabilization at the replacement fertility rate increases the water stress in high-latitude countries. Nevertheless, the impact is low due to the high per capita water availability in the region. This research is expected to widen the understanding of the combined impacts of climate change in the future and of the strategies needed to enhance the space for adaptation.

Long-Term Preservation of the Physical Remains of the Destroyed Buddha Figures in Bamiyan (afghanistan) Using Virtual Reality Technologies for Preparation and Evaluation of Restoration Measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toubekis, G.; Jansen, M.; Jarke, M.

2017-08-01

In March 2001, the world's largest depictions of standing Buddha figures located in Bamiyan (Afghanistan) were destroyed during a campaign of the Taliban leadership against all non-Muslim heritage in the country. Bamiyan and its archaeological remains have been nominated a World Heritage also to commemorate the events of destruction the site has experienced over the centuries. More than fifteen years after the Giant Buddha figures turned into dust, the UNESCO Safeguarding campaign for the preservation of the Bamiyan World Heritage property has made considerable progress. Upon continued request by the local population and the national government, the international community is asked to contribute proposals for the future presentation of the physical remains including the options of reassembling the original fragments. The achievements and backlashes of the UNESCO campaign are discussed and a proposal is given, how virtual technology can contribute to the ongoing discussion regarding the future of the site. At a time when deliberate raids during military conflicts against heritage places have become commonplace, the Bamiyan case has become emblematic and is considered now a key turning point in the heritage community on the question, which roles reconstruction can have especially in the aftermath of conflict situations. It is argued that immersive virtual reality technologies offer the chance to investigate how values attributed to cultural heritage are produced and experienced among different stakeholder groups.

How the world survived the population bomb: lessons from 50 years of extraordinary demographic history.

PubMed

Lam, David

2011-11-01

The world population will reach 7 billion in late 2011, a demographic milestone that is causing renewed attention to the challenges caused by population growth. This article looks at the last 50 years of demographic change, one of the most extraordinary periods in demographic history. During this period, world population grew at rates that have never been seen before and will almost surely never be seen again. There were many concerns about the potential impact of rapid population growth in the 1960s, including mass starvation in countries such as India, depletion of nonrenewable resources, and increased poverty in low-income countries. The actual experience was very different. World food production increased faster than world population in every decade since the 1960s, resource prices fell during most of the period, and poverty declined significantly in much of the developing world. The article considers the economic and demographic explanations for the surprising successes of this important period in demographic history. It also looks at regions that have been less successful, especially Africa, and at the lessons for dealing with the important challenges that still remain.

How the World Survived the Population Bomb: Lessons From 50 Years of Extraordinary Demographic History

PubMed Central

Lam, David

2012-01-01

The world population will reach 7 billion in late 2011, a demographic milestone that is causing renewed attention to the challenges caused by population growth. This article looks at the last 50 years of demographic change, one of the most extraordinary periods in demographic history. During this period, world population grew at rates that have never been seen before and will almost surely never be seen again. There were many concerns about the potential impact of rapid population growth in the 1960s, including mass starvation in countries such as India, depletion of nonrenewable resources, and increased poverty in low-income countries. The actual experience was very different. World food production increased faster than world population in every decade since the 1960s, resource prices fell during most of the period, and poverty declined significantly in much of the developing world. The article considers the economic and demographic explanations for the surprising successes of this important period in demographic history. It also looks at regions that have been less successful, especially Africa, and at the lessons for dealing with the important challenges that still remain. PMID:22005884

Improving Estimation of Ground Casualty Risk From Reentering Space Objects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ostrom, Chris L.

2017-01-01

A recent improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from reentering space debris is the further refinement and update to the human population distribution. Previous human population distributions were based on global totals with simple scaling factors for future years, or a coarse grid of population counts in a subset of the world's countries, each cell having its own projected growth rate. The newest population model includes a 5-fold refinement in both latitude and longitude resolution. All areas along a single latitude are combined to form a global population distribution as a function of latitude, creating a more accurate population estimation based on non-uniform growth at the country and area levels. Previous risk probability calculations used simplifying assumptions that did not account for the ellipsoidal nature of the Earth. The new method uses first, a simple analytical method to estimate the amount of time spent above each latitude band for a debris object with a given orbit inclination and second, a more complex numerical method that incorporates the effects of a non-spherical Earth. These new results are compared with the prior models to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

Improving Estimation of Ground Casualty Risk from Reentering Space Objects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ostrom, C.

2017-01-01

A recent improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from reentering space debris is the further refinement and update to the human population distribution. Previous human population distributions were based on global totals with simple scaling factors for future years, or a coarse grid of population counts in a subset of the world's countries, each cell having its own projected growth rate. The newest population model includes a 5-fold refinement in both latitude and longitude resolution. All areas along a single latitude are combined to form a global population distribution as a function of latitude, creating a more accurate population estimation based on non-uniform growth at the country and area levels. Previous risk probability calculations used simplifying assumptions that did not account for the ellipsoidal nature of the earth. The new method uses first, a simple analytical method to estimate the amount of time spent above each latitude band for a debris object with a given orbit inclination, and second, a more complex numerical method that incorporates the effects of a non-spherical Earth. These new results are compared with the prior models to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

Robust assessment of the expansion and retreat of Mediterranean climate in the 21st century

PubMed Central

Alessandri, Andrea; De Felice, Matteo; Zeng, Ning; Mariotti, Annarita; Pan, Yutong; Cherchi, Annalisa; Lee, June-Yi; Wang, Bin; Ha, Kyung-Ja; Ruti, Paolo; Artale, Vincenzo

2014-01-01

The warm-temperate regions of the globe characterized by dry summers and wet winters (Mediterranean climate; MED) are especially vulnerable to climate change. The potential impact on water resources, ecosystems and human livelihood requires a detailed picture of the future changes in this unique climate zone. Here we apply a probabilistic approach to quantitatively address how and why the geographic distribution of MED will change based on the latest-available climate projections for the 21st century. Our analysis provides, for the first time, a robust assessment of significant northward and eastward future expansions of MED over both the Euro-Mediterranean and western North America. Concurrently, we show a significant 21st century replacement of the equatorward MED margins by the arid climate type. Moreover, future winters will become wetter and summers drier in both the old and newly established MED zones. Should these projections be realized, living conditions in some of the most densely populated regions in the world will be seriously jeopardized. PMID:25448867

The thermal environment of the human being on the global scale

PubMed Central

Jendritzky, Gerd; Tinz, Birger

2009-01-01

Background The close relationship between human health, performance, well-being and the thermal environment is obvious. Nevertheless, most studies of climate and climate change impacts show amazing shortcomings in the assessment of the environment. Populations living in different climates have different susceptibilities, due to socio-economic reasons, and different customary behavioural adaptations. The global distribution of risks of hazardous thermal exposure has not been analysed before. Objective To produce maps of the baseline and future bioclimate that allows a direct comparison of the differences in the vulnerability of populations to thermal stress across the world. Design The required climatological data fields are obtained from climate simulations with the global General Circulation Model ECHAM4 in T106-resolution. For the thermo-physiologically relevant assessment of these climate data a complete heat budget model of the human being, the ‘Perceived Temperature’ procedure has been applied which already comprises adaptation by clothing to a certain degree. Short-term physiological acclimatisation is considered via Health Related Assessment of the Thermal Environment. Results The global maps 1971–1980 (control run, assumed as baseline climate) show a pattern of thermal stress intensities as frequencies of heat. The heat load for people living in warm–humid climates is the highest. Climate change will lead to clear differences in health-related thermal stress between baseline climate and the future bioclimate 2041–2050 based on the ‘business-as-usual’ greenhouse gas scenario IS92a. The majority of the world's population will be faced with more frequent and more intense heat strain in spite of an assumed level of acclimatisation. Further adaptation measures are crucial in order to reduce the vulnerability of the populations. Conclusions This bioclimatology analysis provides a tool for various questions in climate and climate change impact research. Considerations of regional or local scale require climate simulations with higher resolution. As adaptation is the key term in understanding the role of climate/climate change for human health, performance and well-being, further research in this field is crucial. PMID:20052427

Bangladesh. Population education programme reviewed.

PubMed

1995-01-01

The UNFPA (UN Population Fund)-funded population education program was reviewed last November 1994 in order to identify the emerging needs and requirements as well as chart the future directions of the program. The review was undertaken with the assistance of the CST SAWA Adviser on Population Education, Dr. D.M. de Rebello. Comprehensive literature review, and intensive discussions with government functionaries, educationists, teachers, students, UNFPA country director and staff and concerned officials of the World Bank and other UN agencies involved in the program served as the modalities for the review. The review looked into the current status of the school education sector and assessed the present progress of the population education program vis-a-vis its objectives and achievements. It also analyzed the issues and constraints in relation to institutionalization of the program, capacity building and integration of population education in curriculum and textbooks. Among the many recommendations, the review proposed further building up of national capacities at various levels; development of teaching/learning materials and textbooks for the new sectors; and intensification of good quality teacher education. Institutionalization of population education in the formal school system up to grade 12 and in technical and vocational education as well as the madrasah system and the introduction of population education in the Mass Non-formal Education Program were also proposed. full text

Putting the "ecology" into environmental flows: ecological dynamics and demographic modelling.

PubMed

Shenton, Will; Bond, Nicholas R; Yen, Jian D L; Mac Nally, Ralph

2012-07-01

There have been significant diversions of water from rivers and streams around the world; natural flow regimes have been perturbed by dams, barriers and excessive extractions. Many aspects of the ecological 'health' of riverine systems have declined due to changes in water flows, which has stimulated the development of thinking about the maintenance and restoration of these systems, which we refer to as environmental flow methodologies (EFMs). Most existing EFMs cannot deliver information on the population viability of species because they: (1) use habitat suitability as a proxy for population status; (2) use historical time series (usually of short duration) to forecast future conditions and flow sequences; (3) cannot, or do not, handle extreme flow events associated with climate variability; and (4) assume process stationarity for flow sequences, which means the past sequences are treated as good indicators of the future. These assumptions undermine the capacity of EFMs to properly represent risks associated with different flow management options; assumption (4) is untenable given most climate-change predictions. We discuss these concerns and advocate the use of demographic modelling as a more appropriate tool for linking population dynamics to flow regime change. A 'meta-species' approach to demographic modelling is discussed as a useful step from habitat based models towards modelling strategies grounded in ecological theory when limited data are available on flow-demographic relationships. Data requirements of demographic models will undoubtedly expose gaps in existing knowledge, but, in so doing, will strengthen future efforts to link changes in river flows with their ecological consequences.

Putting the "Ecology" into Environmental Flows: Ecological Dynamics and Demographic Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shenton, Will; Bond, Nicholas R.; Yen, Jian D. L.; Mac Nally, Ralph

2012-07-01

There have been significant diversions of water from rivers and streams around the world; natural flow regimes have been perturbed by dams, barriers and excessive extractions. Many aspects of the ecological `health' of riverine systems have declined due to changes in water flows, which has stimulated the development of thinking about the maintenance and restoration of these systems, which we refer to as environmental flow methodologies (EFMs). Most existing EFMs cannot deliver information on the population viability of species because they: (1) use habitat suitability as a proxy for population status; (2) use historical time series (usually of short duration) to forecast future conditions and flow sequences; (3) cannot, or do not, handle extreme flow events associated with climate variability; and (4) assume process stationarity for flow sequences, which means the past sequences are treated as good indicators of the future. These assumptions undermine the capacity of EFMs to properly represent risks associated with different flow management options; assumption (4) is untenable given most climate-change predictions. We discuss these concerns and advocate the use of demographic modelling as a more appropriate tool for linking population dynamics to flow regime change. A `meta-species' approach to demographic modelling is discussed as a useful step from habitat based models towards modelling strategies grounded in ecological theory when limited data are available on flow-demographic relationships. Data requirements of demographic models will undoubtedly expose gaps in existing knowledge, but, in so doing, will strengthen future efforts to link changes in river flows with their ecological consequences.

Potential of insects as food and feed in assuring food security.

PubMed

van Huis, Arnold

2013-01-01

With a growing world population and increasingly demanding consumers, the production of sufficient protein from livestock, poultry, and fish represents a serious challenge for the future. Approximately 1,900 insect species are eaten worldwide, mainly in developing countries. They constitute quality food and feed, have high feed conversion ratios, and emit low levels of greenhouse gases. Some insect species can be grown on organic side streams, reducing environmental contamination and transforming waste into high-protein feed that can replace increasingly more expensive compound feed ingredients, such as fish meal. This requires the development of cost-effective, automated mass-rearing facilities that provide a reliable, stable, and safe product. In the tropics, sustainable harvesting needs to be assured and rearing practices promoted, and in general, the food resource needs to be revalorized. In the Western world, consumer acceptability will relate to pricing, perceived environmental benefits, and the development of tasty insect-derived protein products.

Vitamin C and reducing sugars in the world collection of Capsicum baccatum L. genotypes.

PubMed

Perla, Venu; Nimmakayala, Padma; Nadimi, Marjan; Alaparthi, Suresh; Hankins, Gerald R; Ebert, Andreas W; Reddy, Umesh K

2016-07-01

This study aimed to analyze 123 genotypes of Capsicum baccatum L. originating from 22 countries, at two stages of fruit development, for vitamin C content and its relationship with reducing sugars in fruit pericarp. Among the parametric population, vitamin C and reducing sugar concentrations ranged between 2.54 to 50.44 and 41-700mgg(-1) DW of pericarp, respectively. Overall, 14 genotypes accumulated 50-500% of the RDA of vitamin C in each 2g of fruit pericarp on a dry weight basis. Compared with ripened fruits, matured (unripened) fruits contained higher vitamin C and lower reducing sugars. About 44% variation in the vitamin C content could be ascribed to levels of reducing sugars. For the first time, this study provides comprehensive data on vitamin C in the world collection of C. baccatum genotypes that could serve as a key resource for food research in future. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Reducing US Oil Dependence Using Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ayoub, Fadi; Arnaout, Georges M.

2011-01-01

People across the world are addicted to oil; as a result, the instability of oil prices and the shortage of oil reserves have influenced human behaviors and global businesses. Today, the United States makes up only 5% of the global population but consumes 25% of the. world total energy. Most of this energy is generated from fossil fuels in the form of electricity. The contribution of this paper is to examine the possibilities of replacing fossil fuel with renewable energies to generate electricity as well as to examine other methods to reduce oil and gas consumption. We propose a system dynamics model in an attempt to predict the future US dependence on fossil fuels by using renewable energy resources such as, nuclear, wind, solar, and hydro powers. Based on the findings of our model, the study expects to provide insights towards promising solutions of the oil dependency problem.

A virtual water network of the Roman world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dermody, B. J.; van Beek, R. P. H.; Meeks, E.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Scheidel, W.; van der Velde, Y.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Wassen, M. J.; Dekker, S. C.

2014-12-01

The Romans were perhaps the most impressive exponents of water resource management in preindustrial times with irrigation and virtual water trade facilitating unprecedented urbanization and socioeconomic stability for hundreds of years in a region of highly variable climate. To understand Roman water resource management in response to urbanization and climate variability, a Virtual Water Network of the Roman World was developed. Using this network we find that irrigation and virtual water trade increased Roman resilience to interannual climate variability. However, urbanization arising from virtual water trade likely pushed the Empire closer to the boundary of its water resources, led to an increase in import costs, and eroded its resilience to climate variability in the long term. In addition to improving our understanding of Roman water resource management, our cost-distance-based analysis illuminates how increases in import costs arising from climatic and population pressures are likely to be distributed in the future global virtual water network.

A virtual water network of the Roman world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dermody, B. J.; van Beek, R. P. H.; Meeks, E.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Scheidel, W.; van der Velde, Y.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Wassen, M. J.; Dekker, S. C.

2014-06-01

The Romans were perhaps the most impressive exponents of water resource management in preindustrial times with irrigation and virtual water trade facilitating unprecedented urbanisation and socioeconomic stability for hundreds of years in a region of highly variable climate. To understand Roman water resource management in response to urbanisation and climate variability, a Virtual Water Network of the Roman World was developed. Using this network we find that irrigation and virtual water trade increased Roman resilience to climate variability in the short term. However, urbanisation arising from virtual water trade likely pushed the Empire closer to the boundary of its water resources, led to an increase in import costs, and reduced its resilience to climate variability in the long-term. In addition to improving our understanding of Roman water resource management, our cost-distance based analysis illuminates how increases in import costs arising from climatic and population pressures are likely to be distributed in the future global virtual water network.

Vitamin C and reducing sugars in the world collection of Capsicum baccatum L. genotypes

PubMed Central

Perla, Venu; Nadimi, Marjan; Alaparthi, Suresh; Hankins, Gerald R.; Ebert, Andreas W.; Reddy, Umesh K.

2016-01-01

This study aimed to analyze 123 genotypes of Capsicum baccatum L. originating from 22 countries, at two stages of fruit development, for vitamin C content and its relationship with reducing sugars in fruit pericarp. Among the parametric population, vitamin C and reducing sugar concentrations ranged between 2.54 to 50.44 and 41–700 mg g−1 DW of pericarp, respectively. Overall, 14 genotypes accumulated 50–500% of the RDA of vitamin C in each 2 g of fruit pericarp on a dry weight basis. Compared with ripened fruits, matured (unripened) fruits contained higher vitamin C and lower reducing sugars. About 44% variation in the vitamin C content could be ascribed to levels of reducing sugars. For the first time, this study provides comprehensive data on vitamin C in the world collection of C. baccatum genotypes that could serve as a key resource for food research in future. PMID:26920284

Health effects following 9/11: implications for occupational health nurses.

PubMed

Pak, Victoria M; O'Hara, MaryEllen; McCauley, Linda A

2008-04-01

The attacks on the World Trade Center in 2001 resulted in hazardous environmental exposures of enormous magnitude, bringing about persistent respiratory and psychological problems among survivors. Approximately 40,000 men and women worked at Ground Zero, the former site of the World Trade Center in New York City, and at the Staten Island landfill, the main wreckage depository, in the days, weeks, and months following 9/11. First responders such as firefighters and police, construction workers, and utility and public sector workers were involved. These individuals were at high risk for injury, respiratory complications, and psychological distress from the traumatic event. This article highlights the controversy surrounding 9/11 research and reports, identifies populations at high risk for exposure, and examines the health effects. Occupational health nurses should not only be empowered to provide the best care for workers affiliated with 9/11, but also contribute to research to protect worker health in future disaster responses.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moore, Thomas W.; Quach, Tu-Thach; Detry, Richard Joseph

Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems, or CASoS, are vastly complex ecological, sociological, economic and/or technical systems which we must understand to design a secure future for the nation and the world. Perturbations/disruptions in CASoS have the potential for far-reaching effects due to pervasive interdependencies and attendant vulnerabilities to cascades in associated systems. Phoenix was initiated to address this high-impact problem space as engineers. Our overarching goals are maximizing security, maximizing health, and minimizing risk. We design interventions, or problem solutions, that influence CASoS to achieve specific aspirations. Through application to real-world problems, Phoenix is evolving the principles and discipline ofmore » CASoS Engineering while growing a community of practice and the CASoS engineers to populate it. Both grounded in reality and working to extend our understanding and control of that reality, Phoenix is at the same time a solution within a CASoS and a CASoS itself.« less

Population and the World Bank.

PubMed

Sankaran, S

1973-12-01

The World Bank Group regards excessive population growth as the single greatest obstacle to economic and social advance in the underdeveloped world. Since 1969 the Bank and the International Development Agency have provided countries with technical assistance through education, fact-finding, and analysis and given 65.7 million dollars for population projects. These projects, in India, Indonesia, Iran, Jamaica, and Malaysia provide training centers, population education, research, and evaluation as well as actual construction of clinics and mobile units. Because population planning touches sensitive areas of religion, caste, race, morality, and politics, the involved nation's political commitment to plan population growth is critical to the success of any program.

Digital Natives: Back to the Future of Microworlds in a Corporate Learning Organization

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cabanero-Johnson, Paz Susan; Berge, Zane

2009-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to provide description and an analysis of two worlds colliding where real-world roles or ideas play out in a virtual dimension. Inhabited by digital natives, the virtual world in a learning organization is a journey back to the future of microworlds where the only limitation is one's imagination.…

A road for a promising future for China's primates: The potential for restoration.

PubMed

Chapman, Colin A

2018-07-18

China is one of the most dynamic countries of the world and it shelters some amazing levels of biodiversity, including some very special primate species. However, primarily as a result of forest loss, most of which occurred in historical times, approximately 70% of China's primate species have less than 3 000 individuals. Here I evaluate one road for future conservation/development that could produce very positive gains for China's primates; namely forest restoration. I argue that for a large scale restoration project to be possible two conditions must be met; the right societal conditions must exist and the right knowledge must be in hand. This evaluation suggests that the restoration of native forest to support many of China's primates holds great potential to advance conservation goals and to promote primate population recovery.

Midwifery: "at the edge of history".

PubMed

Dahlen, H

2006-03-01

The paper focuses on possible future pathways in maternity care for midwives and nations to consider. The paper blends personal and professional experiences to outline priority areas facing midwives in the future. It begins by examining maternal mortality and morbidity in the developing world and considering the potential of the ten high priority action messages (1997) in helping to improve the plight of women and children in the future. The paper then examines major issues facing midwives in the developed world including: the way birth is viewed; the medical-midwifery divide; marketing midwifery; and finally the challenge of dealing with fear around birth. The third part of the paper examines a part of society where the two worlds meet and there are issues from both the developed and developing world to consider. The paper focuses on women from culturally and linguistically diverse communities, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women and women birthing in remote and rural areas. By looking at these three worlds separately the paper examines different concerns facing midwives in the future but also draws on common issues that face us all as citizens of this planet and particularly as predominantly women. The paper challenges midwives to be politically active and dare to change the world.

World Trends and Alternative Futures. Open Grants Papers No. 1.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McHale, John; Cordell, Magda

We are now at a stage in human global development in which the continuous review and assessment of the long-range future implications of our past and present actions becomes crucially important for the survival of human society. This report includes a synoptic view of world trends and alternative futures. The first and major portion of the…

Is Iowa Educationally Competitive? Children and Iowa's Economic Future. Iowa Kids Count Special Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bruner, Charles; Crawford, Michael

2010-01-01

In 1991, the Child and Family Policy Center (CFPC) titled its first Iowa Kids Count Data Book "World-Class Futures." That year, Iowa ranked eighth among states in the national Kids Count Data Book, and the report warned against complacence. "World-Class Futures" drew comparisons between Iowa's child outcomes and those for some…

Fighting the Dengue Virus

PubMed Central

Aadil, Muhammad; Shafqat, Muhammad Nabeel

2017-01-01

The incidence of dengue has been on the upsurge in the last decade. It has affected around one-third of the world's population living in endemic areas. It can be asymptomatic or may present with some specific symptoms. No control measures have proven beneficial to decrease the prevalence of this disease. The emergence of dengue vaccine has been a revolutionary hope in the future of patients affected with this disease. No doubt, this vaccine has its limitations and may do more harm than good, but with correct use, it can prove to be the most beneficial step taken in managing dengue so far. PMID:28652954

How often do they meet? Genetic similarity between European populations of a potential disease vector Culex pipiens.

PubMed

Lõhmus, Mare; Lindström, Anders; Björklund, Mats

2012-01-01

Species in the Culex pipiens complex are common almost all over the world and represent important vectors for many serious zoonotic diseases. Even if, at the moment, many of the pathogens potentially transmitted by Cx. pipiens are not a problem in northern Europe, they may, with increasing temperatures and changing ecosystems caused by climate change, move northward in the future. Therefore, the question whether or not the Cx. pipiens populations in northern Europe will be competent vectors for them is of high importance. One way to estimate the similarity and the rate of contact between European Cx. pipiens populations is to look at the gene exchange between these populations. To test the genetic diversity and degree of differentiation between European Cx. pipiens populations, we used eight microsatellite markers in 10 mosquito populations originating from northern, central, and southern Europe. We found that three of the analyzed populations were very different from the rest of the populations and they also greatly differed from each other. When these three populations were removed, the variance among the rest of the populations was low, suggesting an extensive historic gene flow between many European Cx. pipiens populations. This suggests that infectious diseases spread by this species may not be associated with a certain vector genotype but rather with suitable environmental conditions. Consequently, we would expect these pathogens to disperse northward with favorable climatic parameters.

Global policy for improvement of oral health in the 21st century--implications to oral health research of World Health Assembly 2007, World Health Organization.

PubMed

Petersen, Poul Erik

2009-02-01

The World Health Organization (WHO) Global Oral Health Programme has worked hard over the past 5 years to increase the awareness of oral health worldwide as oral health is important component of general health and quality of life. Meanwhile, oral disease is still a major public health problem in high income countries and the burden of oral disease is growing in many low- and middle income countries. In the World Oral Health Report 2003, the WHO Global Oral Health Programme formulated the policies and necessary actions to the continuous improvement of oral health. The strategy is that oral disease prevention and the promotion of oral health needs to be integrated with chronic disease prevention and general health promotion as the risks to health are linked. The World Health Assembly (WHA) and the Executive Board (EB) are supreme governance bodies of WHO and for the first time in 25 years oral health was subject to discussion by those bodies in 2007. At the EB120 and WHA60, the Member States agreed on an action plan for oral health and integrated disease prevention, thereby confirming the approach of the Oral Health Programme. The policy forms the basis for future development or adjustment of oral health programmes at national level. Clinical and public health research has shown that a number of individual, professional and community preventive measures are effective in preventing most oral diseases. However, advances in oral health science have not yet benefited the poor and disadvantaged populations worldwide. The major challenges of the future will be to translate knowledge and experiences in oral disease prevention and health promotion into action programmes. The WHO Global Oral Health Programme invites the international oral health research community to engage further in research capacity building in developing countries, and in strengthening the work so that research is recognized as the foundation of oral heath policy at global level.

Potential (mis)match?: Marriage Markets amidst Socio-Demographic Change in India, 2005–2050

PubMed Central

Kashyap, Ridhi; Esteve, Albert; García-Román, Joan

2015-01-01

We explore the impact of socio-demographic change on marriage patterns in India by examining the hypothetical consequences of applying three sets of marriage pairing propensities – contemporary patterns by age, by age and education, and changing propensities that allow for greater educational homogamy and reduced educational asymmetries – to future population projections. Future population prospects for India indicate three trends that will impact marriage patterns: i) female-deficit in sex ratios at birth; ii) declining birth cohort size; iii) female educational expansion. Existing literature posits declining marriage rates for men arising from skewed sex ratios at birth (SRB) in India’s population. In addition to skewed SRBs, India’s population will experience female educational expansion in the coming decades. Female educational expansion and its impact on marriage patterns must be jointly considered with demographic changes, given educational differentials and asymmetries in union formation that exist in India, as across much of the world. We systematize contemporary pairing propensities using data from the 2005–2006 Indian National Family Health Survey and the 2004 Socio-Economic Survey and apply these and the third set of changing propensities to IIASA/VID multi-state population projections by educational attainment using an iterative longitudinal projection procedure. If today’s age patterns of marriage are viewed against age-sex population composition until 2050, men experience declining marriage prevalence. However, when education is included, women, particularly those with higher education experience a more salient rise in non-marriage. Significant changes in pairing patterns towards greater levels of educational homogamy and gender symmetry can counteract a marked rise in non-marriage. PMID:25604846

[The Marxist outlook on population].

PubMed

Qin, R

1984-09-29

Marxist population theory and world population are discussed. From his study of capitalist population theory Marx concluded, "In capitalist reproduction, poverty produces population," thus rejecting Malthusian population determinism theory and developing economic determinism. According to UN statistics, world population has stabilized since the middle of this century after having doubled every hundred years for the last 300; population in the developed countries showed a positive decrease and average net population growth of the developing countries also decreased. The premise of this paper is that population grows according to social economy development. During the last several hundred years, world wealth increased much faster than population; in the last 200 years alone, the population has increased fivefold, but wealth fortyfold. In addition, world population analysis reveals an inverse relationship between wealth and population in the developed and developing countries: the poorer the country, the greater the population. From this perspective, the study of population must begin with surplus labor. Accumulation of surplus production is the foundation of continuous social development and the basis for population growth. The major difference in methods between capitalist countries and China is that the capitalist-planned fertility affects the individual family while Chinese-planned fertility has the whole nation in mind. Human fertility is determined by the economic system. Private ownership determines the private nature of fertility and public ownership determines the public nature of fertility. Thus population development is determined by the accumulation of social wealth.

Estimating Historical Eastern North Pacific Blue Whale Catches Using Spatial Calling Patterns

PubMed Central

Monnahan, Cole C.; Branch, Trevor A.; Stafford, Kathleen M.; Ivashchenko, Yulia V.; Oleson, Erin M.

2014-01-01

Blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) were exploited extensively around the world and remain endangered. In the North Pacific their population structure is unclear and current status unknown, with the exception of a well-studied eastern North Pacific (ENP) population. Despite existing abundance estimates for the ENP population, it is difficult to estimate pre-exploitation abundance levels and gauge their recovery because historical catches of the ENP population are difficult to separate from catches of other populations in the North Pacific. We collated previously unreported Soviet catches and combined these with known catches to form the most current estimates of North Pacific blue whale catches. We split these conflated catches using recorded acoustic calls from throughout the North Pacific, the knowledge that the ENP population produces a different call than blue whales in the western North Pacific (WNP). The catches were split by estimating spatiotemporal occurrence of blue whales with generalized additive models fitted to acoustic call patterns, which predict the probability a catch belonged to the ENP population based on the proportion of calls of each population recorded by latitude, longitude, and month. When applied to the conflated historical catches, which totaled 9,773, we estimate that ENP blue whale catches totaled 3,411 (95% range 2,593 to 4,114) from 1905–1971, and amounted to 35% (95% range 27% to 42%) of all catches in the North Pacific. Thus most catches in the North Pacific were for WNP blue whales, totaling 6,362 (95% range 5,659 to 7,180). The uncertainty in the acoustic data influence the results substantially more than uncertainty in catch locations and dates, but the results are fairly insensitive to the ecological assumptions made in the analysis. The results of this study provide information for future studies investigating the recovery of these populations and the impact of continuing and future sources of anthropogenic mortality. PMID:24892427

Estimating historical eastern North Pacific blue whale catches using spatial calling patterns.

PubMed

Monnahan, Cole C; Branch, Trevor A; Stafford, Kathleen M; Ivashchenko, Yulia V; Oleson, Erin M

2014-01-01

Blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) were exploited extensively around the world and remain endangered. In the North Pacific their population structure is unclear and current status unknown, with the exception of a well-studied eastern North Pacific (ENP) population. Despite existing abundance estimates for the ENP population, it is difficult to estimate pre-exploitation abundance levels and gauge their recovery because historical catches of the ENP population are difficult to separate from catches of other populations in the North Pacific. We collated previously unreported Soviet catches and combined these with known catches to form the most current estimates of North Pacific blue whale catches. We split these conflated catches using recorded acoustic calls from throughout the North Pacific, the knowledge that the ENP population produces a different call than blue whales in the western North Pacific (WNP). The catches were split by estimating spatiotemporal occurrence of blue whales with generalized additive models fitted to acoustic call patterns, which predict the probability a catch belonged to the ENP population based on the proportion of calls of each population recorded by latitude, longitude, and month. When applied to the conflated historical catches, which totaled 9,773, we estimate that ENP blue whale catches totaled 3,411 (95% range 2,593 to 4,114) from 1905-1971, and amounted to 35% (95% range 27% to 42%) of all catches in the North Pacific. Thus most catches in the North Pacific were for WNP blue whales, totaling 6,362 (95% range 5,659 to 7,180). The uncertainty in the acoustic data influence the results substantially more than uncertainty in catch locations and dates, but the results are fairly insensitive to the ecological assumptions made in the analysis. The results of this study provide information for future studies investigating the recovery of these populations and the impact of continuing and future sources of anthropogenic mortality.

Future of endemic flora of biodiversity hotspots in India.

PubMed

Chitale, Vishwas Sudhir; Behera, Mukund Dev; Roy, Partha Sarthi

2014-01-01

India is one of the 12 mega biodiversity countries of the world, which represents 11% of world's flora in about 2.4% of global land mass. Approximately 28% of the total Indian flora and 33% of angiosperms occurring in India are endemic. Higher human population density in biodiversity hotspots in India puts undue pressure on these sensitive eco-regions. In the present study, we predict the future distribution of 637 endemic plant species from three biodiversity hotspots in India; Himalaya, Western Ghats, Indo-Burma, based on A1B scenario for year 2050 and 2080. We develop individual variable based models as well as mixed models in MaxEnt by combining ten least co-related bioclimatic variables, two disturbance variables and one physiography variable as predictor variables. The projected changes suggest that the endemic flora will be adversely impacted, even under such a moderate climate scenario. The future distribution is predicted to shift in northern and north-eastern direction in Himalaya and Indo-Burma, while in southern and south-western direction in Western Ghats, due to cooler climatic conditions in these regions. In the future distribution of endemic plants, we observe a significant shift and reduction in the distribution range compared to the present distribution. The model predicts a 23.99% range reduction and a 7.70% range expansion in future distribution by 2050, while a 41.34% range reduction and a 24.10% range expansion by 2080. Integration of disturbance and physiography variables along with bioclimatic variables in the models improved the prediction accuracy. Mixed models provide most accurate results for most of the combinations of climatic and non-climatic variables as compared to individual variable based models. We conclude that a) regions with cooler climates and higher moisture availability could serve as refugia for endemic plants in future climatic conditions; b) mixed models provide more accurate results, compared to single variable based models.

Future of Endemic Flora of Biodiversity Hotspots in India

PubMed Central

Chitale, Vishwas Sudhir; Behera, Mukund Dev; Roy, Partha Sarthi

2014-01-01

India is one of the 12 mega biodiversity countries of the world, which represents 11% of world's flora in about 2.4% of global land mass. Approximately 28% of the total Indian flora and 33% of angiosperms occurring in India are endemic. Higher human population density in biodiversity hotspots in India puts undue pressure on these sensitive eco-regions. In the present study, we predict the future distribution of 637 endemic plant species from three biodiversity hotspots in India; Himalaya, Western Ghats, Indo-Burma, based on A1B scenario for year 2050 and 2080. We develop individual variable based models as well as mixed models in MaxEnt by combining ten least co-related bioclimatic variables, two disturbance variables and one physiography variable as predictor variables. The projected changes suggest that the endemic flora will be adversely impacted, even under such a moderate climate scenario. The future distribution is predicted to shift in northern and north-eastern direction in Himalaya and Indo-Burma, while in southern and south-western direction in Western Ghats, due to cooler climatic conditions in these regions. In the future distribution of endemic plants, we observe a significant shift and reduction in the distribution range compared to the present distribution. The model predicts a 23.99% range reduction and a 7.70% range expansion in future distribution by 2050, while a 41.34% range reduction and a 24.10% range expansion by 2080. Integration of disturbance and physiography variables along with bioclimatic variables in the models improved the prediction accuracy. Mixed models provide most accurate results for most of the combinations of climatic and non-climatic variables as compared to individual variable based models. We conclude that a) regions with cooler climates and higher moisture availability could serve as refugia for endemic plants in future climatic conditions; b) mixed models provide more accurate results, compared to single variable based models. PMID:25501852

Current status and future directions of the population control policies in Korea.

PubMed

Cho, N H; Seo, M H

1989-07-01

Recent changes in demographic and socioeconomic conditions in Korea are reviewed, as are population control policies so that future policy directions can be established. Major data sources include the 1988 National Fertility and Family Health Survey and the 1985 Population and Housing Census of NBOS, EPB. The Korean population increased from 25.0 million in 1960 to 42.4 million in 1989. Population growth rate declined from 3.0% per annum to l.0% at the same time. The total fertility rate went down from 6.0/women to 1.6, from 1960 to 1987. This was due to a family planning program and socioeconomic development. In the Sixth Five-Year Plan (1987-1991), the government changed the demographic goals to further reduce the population growth rate to 0.96% by 1991. The estimated 1987 population of 41.6 million should reach 43.2 million by 1991. Korea will face 3 major population problems: an increase of the elderly population, rapid urbanization and shortage of resources. Emigration programs have been carried out to relieve the pressure of population. For the last 29 years, rural to urban migration has existed. A national family planning program exists. 16.4 million acceptors have received contraception under this program. There are, however, a number of problems. Reduction in population growth will help the world food supply problem and the housing shortage. Energy use has grown. Population and environmental planning should work together. Goals should change from reduction of fertility to eliminating problems with contraceptive acceptance and use effectiveness. There should be a greater choice of methods of contraception. The government functions of the family planning program should be given over to private organizations. The family planning program should be integrated with public health programs. Acceptors should pay for their contraceptives. The family planning program should enlarge its realm of activities. The information, education, communication part of the program should be revised. Individual program activities should be evaluated. Appendix 1 presents new population projections for 1987-2020. Changes in composition of the population are given in table form in Appendix 2.

Raman Life Detection Instrument Development for Icy Worlds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomson, Seamus; Allen, A'Lester; Gutierrez, Daniel; Quinn, Richard C.; Chen, Bin; Koehne, Jessica E.

2017-01-01

The objective of this project is to develop a compact, high sensitivity Raman sensor for detection of life signatures in a flow cell configuration to enable bio-exploration and life detection during future mission to our Solar Systems Icy Worlds. The specific project objectives are the following: 1) Develop a Raman spectroscopy liquid analysis sensor for biosignatures; 2) Demonstrate applicability towards a future Enceladus or other Icy Worlds missions; 3) Establish key parameters for integration with the ARC Sample Processor for Life on Icy Worlds (SPLIce); 4) Position ARC for a successful response to upcoming Enceladus or other Icy World mission instrument opportunities.

The role of trait mindfulness in the pain experience of adolescents.

PubMed

Petter, Mark; Chambers, Christine T; McGrath, Patrick J; Dick, Bruce D

2013-12-01

Trait mindfulness appears to mitigate pain among adult clinical populations and has a unique relationship with pain catastrophizing. However, little is understood about this phenomenon among adolescents. The association between trait mindfulness and pain in both real-world and experimental contexts was examined in a community sample of adolescents. Participants were 198 adolescents who completed measures of trait mindfulness, pain catastrophizing, and pain interference, as well as an interview on day-to-day pain before undergoing an acute experimental pain task. Following the task, they provided ratings of pain intensity and state catastrophizing. Results showed that with regard to day-to-day pains, mindfulness was a significant and unique predictor of pain interference, and this relationship was partially mediated by pain catastrophizing. Mindfulness also had an indirect relationship with experimental pain intensity and tolerance. These associations were mediated by catastrophizing during the pain task. These findings highlight the association between trait mindfulness and both real-world and experimental pain and offer insight into how mindfulness may affect pain among youth. Findings are discussed in the context of current psychological models of pediatric pain and future avenues for research. This article highlights the association between trait mindfulness and pain variables among adolescents in both real-world and experimental pain settings. These findings offer further evidence of the unique relationship between trait mindfulness and pain catastrophizing in affecting pain variables across pain contexts and populations. Copyright © 2013 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

1974 is World Population Year.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Asian Population Programme News, 1974

1974-01-01

This publication is a special issue of the Asian Population Programme News. This particular publication is concerned with population year 1974. Highlights from the thirtieth session of the Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East (ECAFE) are presented. World, regional, and country population news are included in separate sections. A listing…

Economic Motives Behind the 2011 Egyptian Revolution

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

23 Figure 3. Poverty Headcount Ratio at $2 a day (PPP) (% of population) (from The World Bank, 2013...2013). .................................................................................................28 Figure 5. Similarity of World Food Price...Rate Annually, 2000‒2012.......................................................30 Figure 7. Egypt’s Population Growth since 2000 (from CIA World

Human-Induced Climate Variations Linked to Urbanization: From Observations to Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Jin, Menglin

2004-01-01

The goal of this session is to bring together scientists from interdisciplinary backgrounds to discuss the data, scientific approaches and recent results focusing on the impact of urbanization on the climate. The discussion will highlight current observational and modeling capabilities being employed for investigating the urban environment and its linkage to the change in the Earth's climate system. The goal of the session is to identify our current stand and the future direction on the topic. Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of population of the world has moved to urban areas. By 1995, more than 70% of population of North America and Europe were living in cities. By 2025, the United Nations estimates that 60% of the worlds population will live in cities. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is urban, better understanding of how the atmosphere-ocean-land-biosphere components interact as a coupled system and the influence of human activities on this system is critical. Our understanding of urbanization effect is incomplete, partly because human activities induce new changes on climate in addition to the original natural variations, and partly because previously few data available for study urban effect globally. Urban construction changes surface roughness, albedo, heat capacity and vegetation coverage. Traffic and industry increase atmospheric aerosol. It is suggested that urbanization may modify rainfall processes through aerosol-cloud interactions or dynamic feedbacks. Because urbanization effect on climate is determined by many factors including land cover, the city's microscale features, population density, and human lifestyle patterns, it is necessary to study urban areas over globe.

Prevalence of Psychiatric Disorders among the Rural Geriatric Population: A Pilot Study in Karnataka, India

PubMed Central

Nair, Sreejith S.; Raghunath, Pooja; Nair, Sreekanth S.

2015-01-01

Background: Increasing life expectancy around the world, an outstanding achievement of our century, has brought with it new public health challenges. India is the second most populous country in the world, with over 72 million inhabitants above 60 years of age as of 2001. The life expectancy in India increased from 32 years in 1947 to over 66 years in 2010, with 8.0% of the population now reaching over 60 years of age. Few studies in India target the health, especially mental health, of this geriatric population. This study aims to estimate the current prevalence of psychiatric disorders in the geriatric population of the rural area of Singanodi,Karnataka, India. Methods: This cross sectional, epidemiological, community-based study was conducted in a rural health training area of Singanodi, Raichur District, Karnataka, India.The General Health Questionnaire-12, Mini Mental State Examination, and Geriatric Depression Scale were administered to 366 participants. Chi square tests with Yates correction were utilized for statistical analysis using SPSS 19.0 software. Results: We found that 33.9% of the geriatric population in the selected province were above the threshold for mental illness based on the GHQ-12 questionnaire. Females had a higher prevalence of mental disorder at 77.6% (152 out of 196) as compared to males who had a prevalence of 42.4% (72 out of 170). The most common psychiatric disorder was depression (21.9%), and generalized anxiety was present in 10.7% of the study population. Prevalence of cognitive impairment was 16.3%, with a significantly higher percentage of affected individuals in 80+ age group. Conclusion: Mental disorders are common among elderly people, but they are not well documented in rural India. The assessment of psychiatric disorder prevalence will help strengthen psycho-geriatric services and thus improve the quality of life of the elderly. A system that ensures comprehensive health care will have to be developed for this purpose as part of our future efforts. PMID:29138712

Prevalence of Psychiatric Disorders among the Rural Geriatric Population: A Pilot Study in Karnataka, India.

PubMed

Nair, Sreejith S; Raghunath, Pooja; Nair, Sreekanth S

2015-01-01

Increasing life expectancy around the world, an outstanding achievement of our century, has brought with it new public health challenges. India is the second most populous country in the world, with over 72 million inhabitants above 60 years of age as of 2001. The life expectancy in India increased from 32 years in 1947 to over 66 years in 2010, with 8.0% of the population now reaching over 60 years of age. Few studies in India target the health, especially mental health, of this geriatric population. This study aims to estimate the current prevalence of psychiatric disorders in the geriatric population of the rural area of Singanodi,Karnataka, India. This cross sectional, epidemiological, community-based study was conducted in a rural health training area of Singanodi, Raichur District, Karnataka, India.The General Health Questionnaire-12, Mini Mental State Examination, and Geriatric Depression Scale were administered to 366 participants. Chi square tests with Yates correction were utilized for statistical analysis using SPSS 19.0 software. We found that 33.9% of the geriatric population in the selected province were above the threshold for mental illness based on the GHQ-12 questionnaire. Females had a higher prevalence of mental disorder at 77.6% (152 out of 196) as compared to males who had a prevalence of 42.4% (72 out of 170). The most common psychiatric disorder was depression (21.9%), and generalized anxiety was present in 10.7% of the study population. Prevalence of cognitive impairment was 16.3%, with a significantly higher percentage of affected individuals in 80+ age group. Mental disorders are common among elderly people, but they are not well documented in rural India. The assessment of psychiatric disorder prevalence will help strengthen psycho-geriatric services and thus improve the quality of life of the elderly. A system that ensures comprehensive health care will have to be developed for this purpose as part of our future efforts.

The invisible hand in San Francisco.

PubMed

Adams, J; Bouvier, L; Davis, C; Gardner, B; Haupt, A; Kent, M; Molajo, D; Merrick, T; Scully, J; Van Der Tak, J

1986-05-01

Over 1000 population enthusiasts found their way to San Francisco for the 1986 meetings of the Population Association of America (PAA) April 3-5. 2 pre-meetings included: 1) the Association for Population/Family Planning Libraries and Information Centers-International (APLIC), and 2) the psychosocial workshop. Sexual activity was a major topic of the session on "Fertility: Early and Late." Further investigation of the effects of marriage and fertility on behavior was reviewed in a session entitled "Trends in Household Composition and Living Arrangements." The session "Demography of Crime and Justice" gave the demographic answer to such questions as: Is the crime rate really falling? Opinions in a panel on the future of US international population policy were sharply divided; Agency for International Development representative Alison Rosenberg outlined the re-examination of the Agency's population program that had taken place since the population conference in Mexico City in 1984. The Presidential Address was preceded by the annual awards ceremony. PAA President Paul Demeny focused on an issue that has been at the core of the debate about whether population has good, bad, indifferent, or indeterminate effects on economic development: the extent to which society can entrust the solution of population problems to market forces. This year's PAA meeting echoed growing concern in the population field about low fertility in the more developed world as well as increasing skepticism over the negative consequences of rapid developing country population growth.

Water Resources and Sustainable Agriculture in 21st Century: Challenges and Opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asrar, G.

2008-05-01

Global agriculture faces some unique challenges and opportunities for the rest of this century. The need for food, feed and fiber will continues to grow as the world population continue to increase in the future. Agricultural ecosystems are also expected to be the source of a significant portion of renewable energy and fuels around the world, without further compromising the integrity of the natural resources base. How can agriculture continue to provide these services to meet the growing needs of world population while sustaining the integrity of agricultural ecosystems and natural resources, the very foundation it depends on? In the last century, scientific discoveries and technological innovations in agriculture resulted in significant increase in food, feed and fiber production globally, while the total amount of water, energy, fertilizers and other input used to achieve this growth remained the same or even decreased significantly in some parts of the world. Scientific and technical advances in understanding global and regional water and energy cycles, water resources management, soil and water conservation practices, weather prediction, plant breeding and biotechnology, and information and communication technologies contributed to this tremendous achievement. The projected increase in global population, urbanization, and changing lifestyles will continue the pressure on both agriculture and other managed and natural ecosystems to provide necessary goods and services for the rest of this century. To meet these challenges, we must obtain the requisite scientific and technical advances in the functioning of Earth's water, energy, carbon and biogeochemical cycles. We also need to apply the knowledge we gain and technologies we develop in assessing Earth's ecosystems' conditions, and their management and stewardship. In agricultural ecosystems, management of soil and water quality and quantity together with development of new varieties of plants based on advances in genomic, genetics, breeding and applied biotechnologies are a key to our ability to address these challenges. We must also continue to develop agronomic practices that sustain the integrity of natural resources and conserve energy on one-hand while maximizing agricultural production per unit area of land on the other hand. This will require managing agricultural ecosystems for their multiple functions and services together, instead of looking at each function/service in isolation. In this presentation, we will provide an overview of the scientific and technical knowledge required for sustainable management of agricultural ecosystems and associated natural resources. We will describe the soil, water and energy research needs/priorities in agriculture. We will also provide some examples of recent accomplishments and future directions in developing decision support tools for assessing the impacts of weather and climate variations and change, and their risk to agricultural ecosystems. We will then focus on opportunities and challenges associated with measurement, monitoring and modeling of soil moisture and its use in management and operation of agricultural ecosystems. The overall intent of this presentation is to stimulate some discussion on future directions and priorities for soil, water and energy research in agricultural ecosystems, and how the knowledge we gain from this research can be conveyed to the users for risk assessment, decision making, and multi-service ecosystem management purposes.

Comments on "International Development Perspectives for the 90s".

PubMed

Klein, L R

1991-01-01

Comments on the UN paper on the Development Decade of the 1980s and the next decade of the 1990s by Gamani Corea are presented. Corea's statements about the future are considered fair, but negative and lacking in quantitative input. As an econometrician and a quantitative economist, the author feels that the shortterm and mediumterm economic prospects are that 1988 was a good year, 1989 all right, and 1990 was recessionary for some countries. Recovery is anticipated by 1992. The Gulf crisis of 1990-91 caused fluctuations in energy prices and uncertainty or fear in people, which is hoped to be transitory and without major impact on economic matters. Positive expansion in the world economy after 1992 is anticipated, in spite of the recessions in the UK and some Nordic countries. Western Europe slowed, but the advent of the Single Market is favorable to an upswing. The Asia/Pacific arena is strong, and achievements in South Korea are considerable. Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia, and Chile are promising. Other economic problems in Latin America are only temporary. South Asia has done well. The Middle East and North Africa may have more lasting consequences of the Gulf war. Sub-Saharan Africa is in trouble with the race between population growth and food supplies, and negative or near zero growth rates/capita. Developing countries are experiencing severe recessionary adjustment periods in world economic malaise. With the collapse of socialism, there is no viable "Second World," and there are industrialized and developing countries. Eastern Europe and the USSR have a skilled population with the potential for producing world class goods and services. Primary commodity markets are expected to rise again which will strengthen export earnings in the developing world. Macroeconomic visions of hope are based on contingencies: financial fragility, issues related to the Gulf crisis, poor financial conditions in the US and to a certain extent in Japan and other financial centers. Trade negotiations in the Uruguay Round are in difficulty, which restricts free trade, and dilutes strong and vigorous activity which helps development. The economic restructuring of Europe is moving more slowly, but the Arms race is still extant in Third World countries such as Iraq. Price stabilization efforts may be futile attempts when underlying behavior patterns of production and consumption take over. Europe is the primary growth area. The Peace Dividend has been reduced because of Iraq's postures. South/South trade may be an option for developing countries. There is potential for expansion in e.g., and electronics, medical care, telecommunications, bioengineering, metallurgy, software construction. Technology and economics and international cooperation and coordination are hopeful prospects for the future.

Paleoparasitological Studies on Mummies of the Joseon Dynasty, Korea

PubMed Central

Araujo, Adauto; Reinhard, Karl; Chai, Jong Yil

2014-01-01

Paleoparasitology is the application of conventional or molecular investigative techniques to archeological samples in order to reveal parasitic infection patterns among past populations. Although pioneering studies already have reported key paleoparasitological findings around the world, the same sorts of studies had not, until very recently, been conducted in sufficient numbers in Korea. Mummified remains of individuals dating to the Korean Joseon Dynasty actually have proved very meaningful to concerned researchers, owing particularly to their superb preservation status, which makes them ideal subjects for paleoparasitological studies. Over the past several years, our study series on Korean mummies has yielded very pertinent data on parasitic infection patterns prevailing among certain Joseon Dynasty populations. In this short review, we summarized the findings and achievements of our recent paleoparasitological examinations of Joseon mummies and discussed about the prospects for future research in this vein. PMID:25031462

An energy-economy-environment model for simulating the impacts of socioeconomic development on energy and environment.

PubMed

Wang, Wenyi; Zeng, Weihua; Yao, Bo

2014-01-01

Many rapidly developing regions have begun to draw the attention of the world. Meanwhile, the energy and environmental issues associated with rapid economic growth have aroused widespread critical concern. Therefore, studying energy, economic, and environmental systems is of great importance. This study establishes a system dynamic model that covers multiple aspects of those systems, such as energy, economy, population, water pollution, air pollution, solid waste, and technology. The model designed here attempts to determine the impacts of socioeconomic development on the energy and environment of Tongzhou District in three scenarios: under current, planning, and sustainable conditions. The results reveal that energy shortages and water pollutions are very serious and are the key issues constraining future social and economic development. Solid waste emissions increase with population growth. The prediction results provide valuable insights into social advancement.

Framing the Future with Bacteriophages in Agriculture

PubMed Central

Svircev, Antonet; Roach, Dwayne; Castle, Alan

2018-01-01

The ability of agriculture to continually provide food to a growing world population is of crucial importance. Bacterial diseases of plants and animals have continually reduced production since the advent of crop cultivation and animal husbandry practices. Antibiotics have been used extensively to mitigate these losses. The rise of antimicrobial resistant (AMR) bacteria, however, together with consumers’ calls for antibiotic-free products, presents problems that threaten sustainable agriculture. Bacteriophages (phages) are proposed as bacterial population control alternatives to antibiotics. Their unique properties make them highly promising but challenging antimicrobials. The use of phages in agriculture also presents a number of unique challenges. This mini-review summarizes recent development and perspectives of phages used as antimicrobial agents in plant and animal agriculture at the farm level. The main pathogens and their adjoining phage therapies are discussed. PMID:29693561

Reproductive Health: An Introduction to IUCD in India

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tripathi, Vrijesh; Nandan, Deoki

2006-01-01

The world has a population of 6 billion. India alone has a population of 1 billion. This is despite the fact that India was the first country in the world to have a population policy. It is important to understand the factors that led to this population explosion and the complex links between population growth rates and levels of development.…

Genetic Diversity in the Modern Horse Illustrated from Genome-Wide SNP Data

PubMed Central

Petersen, Jessica L.; Mickelson, James R.; Cothran, E. Gus; Andersson, Lisa S.; Axelsson, Jeanette; Bailey, Ernie; Bannasch, Danika; Binns, Matthew M.; Borges, Alexandre S.; Brama, Pieter; da Câmara Machado, Artur; Distl, Ottmar; Felicetti, Michela; Fox-Clipsham, Laura; Graves, Kathryn T.; Guérin, Gérard; Haase, Bianca; Hasegawa, Telhisa; Hemmann, Karin; Hill, Emmeline W.; Leeb, Tosso; Lindgren, Gabriella; Lohi, Hannes; Lopes, Maria Susana; McGivney, Beatrice A.; Mikko, Sofia; Orr, Nicholas; Penedo, M. Cecilia T; Piercy, Richard J.; Raekallio, Marja; Rieder, Stefan; Røed, Knut H.; Silvestrelli, Maurizio; Swinburne, June; Tozaki, Teruaki; Vaudin, Mark; M. Wade, Claire; McCue, Molly E.

2013-01-01

Horses were domesticated from the Eurasian steppes 5,000–6,000 years ago. Since then, the use of horses for transportation, warfare, and agriculture, as well as selection for desired traits and fitness, has resulted in diverse populations distributed across the world, many of which have become or are in the process of becoming formally organized into closed, breeding populations (breeds). This report describes the use of a genome-wide set of autosomal SNPs and 814 horses from 36 breeds to provide the first detailed description of equine breed diversity. FST calculations, parsimony, and distance analysis demonstrated relationships among the breeds that largely reflect geographic origins and known breed histories. Low levels of population divergence were observed between breeds that are relatively early on in the process of breed development, and between those with high levels of within-breed diversity, whether due to large population size, ongoing outcrossing, or large within-breed phenotypic diversity. Populations with low within-breed diversity included those which have experienced population bottlenecks, have been under intense selective pressure, or are closed populations with long breed histories. These results provide new insights into the relationships among and the diversity within breeds of horses. In addition these results will facilitate future genome-wide association studies and investigations into genomic targets of selection. PMID:23383025

Impact of the 2010 FIFA (Federation Internationale de Football Association) World Cup on Pediatric Injury and Mortality in Cape Town, South Africa.

PubMed

Zroback, Chris; Levin, David; Manlhiot, Cedric; Alexander, Angus; van As, Ab Sebastian; Azzie, Georges

2014-02-01

To examine how a mass-gathering event (the Federation Internationale de Football Association World Cup, 2010, South Africa) impacts trauma and mortality in the pediatric (≤ 18 years) population. We investigated pediatric emergency visits at Cape Town's 3 largest public trauma centers and 3 private hospital groups, as well as deaths investigated by the 3 city mortuaries. We compared the 31 days of World Cup with equivalent periods from 2007-2009, and with the 2 weeks before and after the event. We also looked at the World Cup period in isolation and compared days with and without games in Cape Town. There was significantly decreased pediatric trauma volume during the World Cup, approximately 2/100,000 (37%) fewer injuries per day, compared with 2009 and to both pre- and post-World Cup control periods (P < .001). This decrease occurred within a majority of injury subtypes, but did not change mortality. There were temporal fluctuations in emergency visits corresponding with local match start time, with fewer all-cause emergency visits during the 5 hours surrounding this time (-16.4%, P = .01), followed by a subsequent spike (+26.2%, P = .02). There was an increase in trauma 12 hours following matches (+15.6%, P = .06). In Cape Town, during the 2010 Federation Internationale de Football Association World Cup, there were fewer emergency department visits for traumatic injury. Furthermore, there were fewer all-cause pediatric emergency department visits during hometown matches. These results will assist in planning for future mass-gathering events. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Advanced space system concepts and their orbital support needs (1980 - 2000). Volume 4: Detailed data. Part 2: Program plans and common support needs (a study of the commonality of space vehicle applications to future national needs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bekey, I.; Mayer, H. L.; Wolfe, M. G.

1976-01-01

The methodology of alternate world future scenarios is utilized for selecting a plausible, though not advocated, set of future scenarios each of which results in a program plan appropriate for the respective environment. Each such program plan gives rise to different building block and technology requirements, which are analyzed for common need between the NASA and the DoD for each of the alternate world scenarios. An essentially invariant set of system, building block, and technology development plans is presented at the conclusion, intended to allow protection of most of the options for system concepts regardless of what the actual future world environment turns out to be. Thus, building block and technology needs are derived which support: (1) each specific world scenario; (2) all the world scenarios identified in this study; or (3) generalized scenarios applicable to almost any future environment. The output included in this volume consists of the building blocks, i.e.: transportation vehicles, orbital support vehicles, and orbital support facilities; the technology required to support the program plans; identification of their features which could support the DoD and NASA in common; and a complete discussion of the planning methodology.

Our Population Predicament: A New Look.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van der Tak, Jean, Ed.; And Others

1979-01-01

This Bulletin updates the story of world population presented in 1971, "Man's Population Predicament." Estimated at half a billion in 1650, world population reached 2 billion in 1930, 4 billion in 1975, and is projected to be about 6 billion in 2000. Most of today's rapid growth is occurring among people living in less developed…

Twenty-Two Dimensions of the Population Problem. Worldwatch Paper 5.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Lester R.; And Others

Twenty-two facets of the world population problem are explored. The topics are economic, social, ecological, and political in nature and generally portray the stresses and strains associated with continued population growth in a world inhabited by four billion people. These aspects of the population problem are discussed: literacy, oceanic…

Integrating developed and developing world knowledge into global discussions and strategies for sustainability. 1. Science and technology.

PubMed

Mihelcic, James R; Zimmerman, Julie B; Ramaswami, Anu

2007-05-15

Sustainable development in both the developed and developing world has the common fundamental themes of advancing economic and social prosperity while protecting and restoring natural systems. While many recent efforts have been undertaken to transfer knowledge from the developed to the developing world to achieve a more sustainable future, indigenous knowledge that often originates in developing nations also can contribute significantly to this global dialogue. Selected case studies are presented to describe important knowledge, methodologies, techniques, principles, and practices for sustainable development emerging from developing countries in two critical challenge areas to sustainability: water and energy. These, with additional analysis and quantification, can be adapted and expanded for transfer throughout the developed and developing world in advancing sustainability. A common theme in all of the case studies presented is the integration of natural processes and material flows into the anthropogenic system. Some of these techniques, originating in rural settings, have recently been adapted for use in cities, which is especially important as the global trend of urban population growth accelerates. Innovations in science and technology, specifically applied to two critical issues of today, water and energy, are expected to fundamentally shift the type and efficiency of energy and materials utilized to advance prosperity while protecting and restoring natural systems.

U.S. Geological Survey assessment of global potash production and resources—A significant advancement for global development and a sustainable future.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cocker, Mark D.; Orris, Greta J.; Wynn, Jeff

2016-01-01

During the past 15 yr, the global requirement for fertilizers has grown considerably, mainly due to demand by a larger and wealthier world population for more and higher-quality food. The demand and price for potash as a primary fertilizer ingredient have increased in tandem, because of the necessity to increase the quantity and quality of food production on the decreasing amount of available arable land. The primary sources of potash are evaporates, which occur mainly in marine salt basins and a few brine-bearing continental basins. World potash resources are large, but distribution is inequitable and not presently developed in countries where population and food requirements are large and increasing. There is no known substitute for potash in fertilizer, so knowledge of the world’s potash resources is critical for a sustainable future. The U.S. Geological Survey recently completed a global assessment of evaporite-hosted potash resources, which included a geographic information system–based inventory of known potash resources. This assessment included permissive areas or tracts for undiscovered resources at a scale of 1:1,000,000. Assessments of undiscovered potash resources were conducted for a number of the world’s evaporite-hosted potash basins. The data collected provide a major advance in our knowledge of global potash resources that did not exist prior to this study. The two databases include: (1) potash deposits and occurrences, and (2) potash tracts (basins that contain these deposits and occurrences and potentially undiscovered potash deposits). Data available include geology, mineralogy, grade, tonnage, depth, thickness, areal extent, and structure, as well as numerous pertinent references.

Historically hottest summers projected to be the norm for more than half of the world’s population within 20 years

DOE PAGES

Mueller, Brigitte; Zhang, Xuebin; Zwiers, Francis W.

2016-04-07

We project that within the next two decades, half of the world's population will regularly (every second summer on average) experience regional summer mean temperatures that exceed those of the historically hottest summer, even under the moderate RCP4.5 emissions pathway. This frequency threshold for hot temperatures over land, which have adverse effects on human health, society and economy, might be broached in little more than a decade under the RCP8.5 emissions pathway. These hot summer frequency projections are based on adjusted RCP4.5 and 8.5 temperature projections, where the adjustments are performed with scaling factors determined by regularized optimal fingerprinting analyzesmore » that compare historical model simulations with observations over the period 1950-2012. A temperature reconstruction technique is then used to simulate a multitude of possible past and future temperature evolutions, from which the probability of a hot summer is determined for each region, with a hot summer being defined as the historically warmest summer on record in that region. Probabilities with and without external forcing show that hot summers are now about ten times more likely (fraction of attributable risk 0.9) in many regions of the world than they would have been in the absence of past greenhouse gas increases. In conclusion, the adjusted future projections suggest that the Mediterranean, Sahara, large parts of Asia and the Western US and Canada will be among the first regions for which hot summers will become the norm (i.e. occur on average every other year), and that this will occur within the next 1-2 decades.« less

Outcome assessment for spasticity management in the patient with traumatic brain injury: the state of the art.

PubMed

Elovic, Elie P; Simone, Lisa K; Zafonte, Ross

2004-01-01

The objective of this article was to (1) review the engineering and medical literature to structure the available information concerning the assessment of spasticity in the neurological population; (2) to discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the different methods currently in use in spasticity assessment; and (3) make recommendations for future efforts in spasticity outcome assessment. Spasticity textbooks, Web sites, and OVID, IEEE, and Medline searches from 1966 through 2003 of spasticity, quantitative measure, or outcome assessment in the rehabilitation population were used as data sources. Over 500 articles were reviewed. Articles that discussed outcome measures used to assess interventions and evaluation of spasticity were included. Authors reviewed the articles looking at inclusion criteria, data collection, methodology, assessment methods, and conclusions for validity and relevance to this article. Issues such as clinical relevance, real-world function and lack of objectivity, and time consumed during performance are important issues for spasticity assessment. Some measures such as the Ashworth Scale remain in common use secondary to ease of use despite their obvious functional limitations. More functional outcome goals are plagued by being more time consuming and a general inability to demonstrate changes after an intervention. This may be secondary to the other factors that combine with spasticity to cause dysfunction at that level. Quantitative metrics can provide more objective measurements but their clinical relevance is sometimes problematic. The assessment of spasticity outcome is still somewhat problematic. Further work is necessary to develop measures that have real-world functional significance to both the individuals being treated and the clinicians. A lack of objectivity is still a problem. In the future it is important for clinicians and the engineers to work together in the development of better outcome measures.

Recommended immunization schedules for adults: Clinical practice guidelines by the Escmid Vaccine Study Group (EVASG), European Geriatric Medicine Society (EUGMS) and the World Association for Infectious Diseases and Immunological Disorders (WAidid)

PubMed Central

Esposito, Susanna; Bonanni, Paolo; Maggi, Stefania; Tan, Litjan; Ansaldi, Filippo; Lopalco, Pier Luigi; Dagan, Ron; Michel, Jean-Pierre; van Damme, Pierre; Gaillat, Jacques; Prymula, Roman; Vesikari, Timo; Mussini, Cristina; Frank, Uwe; Osterhaus, Albert; Celentano, Lucia Pastore; Rossi, Marta; Guercio, Valentina; Gavazzi, Gaetan

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Rapid population aging has become a major challenge in the industrialized world and progressive aging is a key reason for making improvement in vaccination a cornerstone of public health strategy. An increase in age-related disorders and conditions is likely to be seen in the near future, and these are risk factors for the occurrence of a number of vaccine-preventable diseases. An improvement in infectious diseases prevention specifically aimed at adults and the elderly can therefore also decrease the burden of these chronic conditions by reducing morbidity, disability, hospital admissions, health costs, mortality rates and, perhaps most importantly, by improving the quality of life. Among adults, it is necessary to identify groups at increased risk of vaccine-preventable diseases and highlight the epidemiological impact and benefits of vaccinations using an evidence-based approach. This document provides clinical practice guidance on immunization for adults in order to provide recommendations for decision makers and healthcare workers in Europe. Although immunization is considered one of the most impactful and cost-effective public health measures that can be undertaken, vaccination coverage rates among adults are largely lower than the stated goal of ≥ 95% among adults, and stronger efforts are needed to increase coverage in this population. Active surveillance of adult vaccine-preventable diseases, determining the effectiveness of the vaccines approved for marketing in the last 5 y, the efficacy and safety of vaccines in immunocompromised patients, as well as in pregnant women, represent the priorities for future research. PMID:27135390

Family planning and fertility decline: a global overview.

PubMed

Tabah, L

1977-01-01

Family planning and development policy concerns are not incompatible. The emphasis on development policies at the 1974 World Population Conference at Bucharest did not mean that world governments had lost interest in the population and family planning issue. Although worldwide attitudes toward family planning have become more and more favorable, this has not yet meant great impact on world demographic trends. The "inertia factor," i.e., the effects of high birthrates in the previous generation, will camouflage declining birthrates for some time to come. The trend of fertility reduction which was perceptible only among small populations a few years ago is also becoming manifest in larger Third World countries. Mortality rate declines have slowed down but there is no rising mortality due to starvation in any country. At present, food demand exceeds availability for 80% of the Third World population. It is predicted that the food deficit will increase 70% by the year 2000.

Whales from space: counting southern right whales by satellite.

PubMed

Fretwell, Peter T; Staniland, Iain J; Forcada, Jaume

2014-01-01

We describe a method of identifying and counting whales using very high resolution satellite imagery through the example of southern right whales breeding in part of the Golfo Nuevo, Península Valdés in Argentina. Southern right whales have been extensively hunted over the last 300 years and although numbers have recovered from near extinction in the early 20(th) century, current populations are fragmented and are estimated at only a small fraction of pre-hunting total. Recent extreme right whale calf mortality events at Península Valdés, which constitutes the largest single population, have raised fresh concern for the future of the species. The WorldView2 satellite has a maximum 50 cm resolution and a water penetrating coastal band in the far-blue part of the spectrum that allows it to see deeper into the water column. Using an image covering 113 km², we identified 55 probable whales and 23 other features that are possibly whales, with a further 13 objects that are only detected by the coastal band. Comparison of a number of classification techniques, to automatically detect whale-like objects, showed that a simple thresholding technique of the panchromatic and coastal band delivered the best results. This is the first successful study using satellite imagery to count whales; a pragmatic, transferable method using this rapidly advancing technology that has major implications for future surveys of cetacean populations.

Effects of heat stress on working populations when facing climate change.

PubMed

Lundgren, Karin; Kuklane, Kalev; Gao, Chuansi; Holmér, Ingvar

2013-01-01

It is accepted that the earth's climate is changing in an accelerating pace, with already documented implications for human health and the environment. This literature review provides an overview of existing research findings about the effects of heat stress on the working population in relation to climate change. In the light of climate change adaptation, the purpose of the literature review was to explore recent and previous research into the impacts of heat stress on humans in an occupational setting. Heat stress in the workplace has been researched extensively in the past however, in the contemporary context of climate change, information is lacking on its extent and implications. The main factors found to exacerbate heat stress in the current and future workplace are the urban 'heat island effect', physical work, individual differences, and the developing country context where technological fixes are often not applicable. There is also a lack of information on the effects on vulnerable groups such as elderly people and pregnant women. As increasing temperatures reduce work productivity, world economic productivity could be condensed, affecting developing countries in the tropical climate zone disproportionately. Future research is needed taking an interdisciplinary approach, including social, economic, environmental and technical aspects.

Drinking water studies: a review on heavy metal, application of biomarker and health risk assessment (a special focus in Malaysia).

PubMed

Ab Razak, Nurul Hafiza; Praveena, Sarva Mangala; Aris, Ahmad Zaharin; Hashim, Zailina

2015-12-01

Malaysia has abundant sources of drinking water from river and groundwater. However, rapid developments have deteriorated quality of drinking water sources in Malaysia. Heavy metal studies in terms of drinking water, applications of health risk assessment and bio-monitoring in Malaysia were reviewed from 2003 to 2013. Studies on heavy metal in drinking water showed the levels are under the permissible limits as suggested by World Health Organization and Malaysian Ministry of Health. Future studies on the applications of health risk assessment are crucial in order to understand the risk of heavy metal exposure through drinking water to Malaysian population. Among the biomarkers that have been reviewed, toenail is the most useful tool to evaluate body burden of heavy metal. Toenails are easy to collect, store, transport and analysed. This review will give a clear guidance for future studies of Malaysian drinking water. In this way, it will help risk managers to minimize the exposure at optimum level as well as the government to formulate policies in safe guarding the population. Copyright © 2015 Ministry of Health, Saudi Arabia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Change and the Neglected Tropical Diseases.

PubMed

Booth, Mark

2018-01-01

Climate change is expected to impact across every domain of society, including health. The majority of the world's population is susceptible to pathological, infectious disease whose life cycles are sensitive to environmental factors across different physical phases including air, water and soil. Nearly all so-called neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) fall into this category, meaning that future geographic patterns of transmission of dozens of infections are likely to be affected by climate change over the short (seasonal), medium (annual) and long (decadal) term. This review offers an introduction into the terms and processes deployed in modelling climate change and reviews the state of the art in terms of research into how climate change may affect future transmission of NTDs. The 34 infections included in this chapter are drawn from the WHO NTD list and the WHO blueprint list of priority diseases. For the majority of infections, some evidence is available of which environmental factors contribute to the population biology of parasites, vectors and zoonotic hosts. There is a general paucity of published research on the potential effects of decadal climate change, with some exceptions, mainly in vector-borne diseases. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.

What facilitates the entry of persons with disabilities into South African companies?

PubMed

Wiggett-Barnard, Cindy; Swartz, Leslie

2012-01-01

The persistent high unemployment rate for persons with disabilities (PWDs) is a world-wide concern. The aim of this research was to identify facilitating factors for the entry of PWDs into the labour market. A survey of Human Resources (HR) managers in South African (SA) companies was conducted to explore what would assist with hiring PWDs. The sample population of companies was identified through the Marketline Library database and supplemented with all Johannesburg Stock Exchange companies. This rendered a population size of 348. A response rate of 25% (86) was achieved. Companies that have appointed PWDs in the past seem more willing to appoint PWDs in the future. Companies value information on accommodation (preparation of the environment and cost) and the impact of disability on job performance most. The use of specialised recruitment agencies, the development of targeted recruitment plans and staff sensitisation training, as well as internships are perceived as the best facilitators for the employment of PWDs. Rehabilitation practitioners can inform PWDs on the best strategies for approaching companies. Companies with facilitating factors already in place may also be more willing to employ PWDs and rehabilitation practitioners can target these companies as future employers of PWDs.

Adaptation of human skin color in various populations.

PubMed

Deng, Lian; Xu, Shuhua

2018-01-01

Skin color is a well-recognized adaptive trait and has been studied extensively in humans. Understanding the genetic basis of adaptation of skin color in various populations has many implications in human evolution and medicine. Impressive progress has been made recently to identify genes associated with skin color variation in a wide range of geographical and temporal populations. In this review, we discuss what is currently known about the genetics of skin color variation. We enumerated several cases of skin color adaptation in global modern humans and archaic hominins, and illustrated why, when, and how skin color adaptation occurred in different populations. Finally, we provided a summary of the candidate loci associated with pigmentation, which could be a valuable reference for further evolutionary and medical studies. Previous studies generally indicated a complex genetic mechanism underlying the skin color variation, expanding our understanding of the role of population demographic history and natural selection in shaping genetic and phenotypic diversity in humans. Future work is needed to dissect the genetic architecture of skin color adaptation in numerous ethnic minority groups around the world, which remains relatively obscure compared with that of major continental groups, and to unravel the exact genetic basis of skin color adaptation.

'Tales of Symphonia': extinction dynamics in response to past climate change in Madagascan rainforests.

PubMed

Virah-Sawmy, Malika; Bonsall, Michael B; Willis, Katherine J

2009-12-23

Madagascar's rainforests are among the most biodiverse in the world. Understanding the population dynamics of important species within these forests in response to past climatic variability provides valuable insight into current and future species composition. Here, we use a population-level approach to analyse palaeoecological records over the last 5300 years to understand how populations of Symphonia cf. verrucosa became locally extinct in some rainforest fragments along the southeast coast of Madagascar in response to rapid climate change, yet persisted in others. Our results indicate that regional (climate) variability contributed to synchronous decline of S. cf. verrucosa populations in these forests. Superimposed on regional fluctuations were local processes that could have contributed or mitigated extinction. Specifically, in the forest with low soil nutrients, population model predictions indicated that there was coexistence between S. cf. verrucosa and Erica spp., but in the nutrient-rich forest, interspecific effects between Symphonia and Erica spp. may have pushed Symphonia to extinction at the peak of climatic change. We also demonstrate that Symphonia is a good indicator of a threshold event, exhibiting erratic fluctuations prior to and long after the critical climatic point has passed.

The Future of wildland fire management in a world of rapid change and great uncertainty: Overview of a futures research project

Treesearch

David N. Bengston; Robert L. Olson; Leif A. DeVaney

2012-01-01

Past efforts to examine the future of wildland fire management have relied heavily on expertise from within the wildfire community. But changes in seemingly unrelated external factors - outside of the world of wildfire and fire management - can have unexpected and profound effects. This paper describes an ongoing sh1dy of the...

A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, L.

2016-12-01

Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to the human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further compounded in urban areas by the urban heat island (UHI). Because the majority of the world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the high temperature problem. It is now recognized that in addition to the traditional emphasis on preparedness to cope with heat stress, these solutions should include active modifications of urban land form to reduce urban temperatures. Here we use an urban climate model to investigate the effectiveness of these active methods in mitigating the urban heat, both individually and collectively. By adopting highly reflective roofs citywide, almost all the cities in the USA and in southern Canada are transformed into cold islands or "white oases" where the daytime surface temperatures are lower than those in the surrounding rural land. The average oasis effect is -3.4 ± 0.3 K (mean ± 1 standard error) for the period 2071-2100 under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge strategy consisting of cool roof, street vegetation and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the greenhouse gas induced warming.

The future of the global food system.

PubMed

Godfray, H Charles J; Crute, Ian R; Haddad, Lawrence; Lawrence, David; Muir, James F; Nisbett, Nicholas; Pretty, Jules; Robinson, Sherman; Toulmin, Camilla; Whiteley, Rosalind

2010-09-27

Although food prices in major world markets are at or near a historical low, there is increasing concern about food security-the ability of the world to provide healthy and environmentally sustainable diets for all its peoples. This article is an introduction to a collection of reviews whose authors were asked to explore the major drivers affecting the food system between now and 2050. A first set of papers explores the main factors affecting the demand for food (population growth, changes in consumption patterns, the effects on the food system of urbanization and the importance of understanding income distributions) with a second examining trends in future food supply (crops, livestock, fisheries and aquaculture, and 'wild food'). A third set explores exogenous factors affecting the food system (climate change, competition for water, energy and land, and how agriculture depends on and provides ecosystem services), while the final set explores cross-cutting themes (food system economics, food wastage and links with health). Two of the clearest conclusions that emerge from the collected papers are that major advances in sustainable food production and availability can be achieved with the concerted application of current technologies (given sufficient political will), and the importance of investing in research sooner rather than later to enable the food system to cope with both known and unknown challenges in the coming decades.

Futures of global urban expansion: uncertainties and implications for biodiversity conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Güneralp, B.; Seto, K. C.

2013-03-01

Urbanization will place significant pressures on biodiversity across the world. However, there are large uncertainties in the amount and location of future urbanization, particularly urban land expansion. Here, we present a global analysis of urban extent circa 2000 and probabilistic forecasts of urban expansion for 2030 near protected areas and in biodiversity hotspots. We estimate that the amount of urban land within 50 km of all protected area boundaries will increase from 450 000 km2 circa 2000 to 1440 000 ± 65 000 km2 in 2030. Our analysis shows that protected areas around the world will experience significant increases in urban land within 50 km of their boundaries. China will experience the largest increase in urban land near protected areas with 304 000 ± 33 000 km2 of new urban land to be developed within 50 km of protected area boundaries. The largest urban expansion in biodiversity hotspots, over 100 000 ± 25 000 km2, is forecasted to occur in South America. Uncertainties in the forecasts of the amount and location of urban land expansion reflect uncertainties in their underlying drivers including urban population and economic growth. The forecasts point to the need to reconcile urban development and biodiversity conservation strategies.

Animal Models of Bipolar Mania: The Past, Present and Future

PubMed Central

Logan, Ryan W.; McClung, Colleen A.

2015-01-01

Bipolar disorder (BD) is the sixth leading cause of disability in the world according to the World Health Organization and affects nearly 6 million (~2.5% of the population) adults in the United State alone each year. BD is primarily characterized by mood cycling of depressive (e.g., helplessness, reduced energy and activity, and anhedonia) and manic (e.g., increased energy and hyperactivity, reduced need for sleep, impulsivity, reduced anxiety and depression), episodes. The following review describes several animal models of bipolar mania with a focus on more recent findings using genetically modified mice, including several with the potential of investigating the mechanisms underlying ‘mood’ cycling (or behavioral switching in rodents). We discuss whether each of these models satisfy criteria of validity (i.e., face, predictive, and construct), while highlighting their strengths and limitations. Animal models are helping to address critical questions related to pathophysiology of bipolar mania, in an effort to more clearly define necessary targets of first-line medications, lithium and valproic acid, and to discover novel mechanisms with the hope of developing more effective therapeutics. Future studies will leverage new technologies and strategies for integrating animal and human data to reveal important insights into the etiology, pathophysiology, and treatment of BD. PMID:26314632

Strengthening the ties between university and school - Bilingual geography is the future for our multifarious subject

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnikel, F.

2003-04-01

An incessantly growing interaction between numerous fields of human activity asks for an open-minded approach and interdisciplinarity. No subject matches geography when it comes to bridging the gaps between different aspects of human life. Geography does not only describe, analyse and explain the "natural" state of the world we live in, it does also connect the disciplines within the physical branch of the subject with disciplines in the human or anthropogenic part, which describes the state of the world "as is". Geography is, therefore, in itself multi-disciplinary. Considering the immense importance of geography as the subject dealing with our environment and facing the fact that it is this environment which is already endangered by the multiple forms of human interference, geography and its multi-disciplinary character deserve even increased attention. The growth of the world's population, future climatic change and shortages of natural resources add to the importance of geography as the one subject in school dealing with these problems. In our societies, which are constantly growing together in political and economic issues, the structures of communication additionally mainly rely on an easily accessible and widely spread language like English to serve the needs of modern international contact. In Bavaria, the signs of the times have been recognized quite early. Nearly 8000 pupils at more than 80 high-level secondary schools ("Gymnasien") attend bilingual teaching, a large part of which is performed in geography. The Adolf-Weber-Gymnasium serves as an example, since it has the largest group of pupils instructed in bilingual geography in Munich. Next term, more than 150 boys and girls from five grades will be taught geography in English. Our goal is, in contrast to concepts of bilingual teaching in some other German states, not only to improve the language capability of our pupils. It is more an investment in scientific propaedeutics. It strenghtens the ties between university and school, since it enables future students to comprehend the character of geography and the aspects of its underlying diversity, and it, consequently, improves the students' ability to understand and solve geographical problems of the future.

The containment of world population growth.

PubMed

Caldwell, J C

1975-12-01

The world has reached the present position of unprecedentedly rapid population growth not by achieving uniquely high fertility but by bringing about extraordinarily low mortality. The high growth rate and the built-in momentum of the age structure are obstacles to achievement of an acceptable standard of living for most of the world's population. Although government population programs have the potential to curb this growth rate, this potential has not been realized, and such programs are too often perceived both by their administrators and the population concerned as an end in themselves rather than a means toward a better standard of living. It is in this latter perspective, and in the context of the total development process, that population programs should be implemented.

Stochastic analysis of future vehicle populations

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-05-01

The purpose of this study was to build a stochastic model of future vehicle populations. Such a model can be used to investigate the uncertainties inherent in Future Vehicle Populations. The model, which is called the Future Automobile Population Sto...

Surplus men, sex work, and the spread of HIV in China.

PubMed

Tucker, Joseph D; Henderson, Gail E; Wang, Tian F; Huang, Ying Y; Parish, William; Pan, Sui M; Chen, Xiang S; Cohen, Myron S

2005-03-24

While 70% of HIV positive individuals live in sub-Saharan Africa, it is widely believed that the future of the epidemic depends on the magnitude of HIV spread in India and China, the world's most populous countries. China's 1.3 billion people are in the midst of significant social transformation, which will impact future sexual disease transmission. Soon approximately 8.5 million 'surplus men', unmarried and disproportionately poor and migrant, will come of age in China's cities and rural areas. Meanwhile, many millions of Chinese sex workers appear to represent a broad range of prices, places, and related HIV risk behaviors. Using demographic and behavioral data, this paper describes the combined effect of sexual practices, sex work, and a true male surplus on HIV transmission. Alongside a rapid increase in sexually transmitted disease incidence across developed parts of urban China, surplus men could become a significant new HIV risk group. The anticipated high sexual risk among many surplus men and injecting drug use use among a subgroup of surplus men may create bridging populations from high to low risk individuals. Prevention strategies that emphasize traditional measures--condom promotion, sex education, medical training--must be reinforced by strategies which acknowledge surplus men and sex workers. Reform within female sex worker mandatory re-education centers and site specific interventions at construction sites, military areas, or unemployment centers may hold promise in curbing HIV/sexually transmitted infections. From a sociological perspective, we believe that surplus men and sex workers will have a profound effect on the future of HIV spread in China and on the success or failure of future interventions.

Population and Development: Perspective on a Teaching Challenge.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dawson, Leslie

1995-01-01

Through the World Institute's Curriculum, students can look at the world's two largest nations, China and India, to learn about population and gender equity issues. This article describes the use of recent data gathered by international agencies and population education in the classroom. (LZ)

High water-stressed population estimated by world water resources assessment including human activities under SRES scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiguchi, M.; Shen, Y.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2009-04-01

In an argument of the reduction and the adaptation for the climate change, the evaluation of the influence by the climate change is important. When we argue in adaptation plan from a damage scale and balance with the cost, it is particularly important. Parry et al (2001) evaluated the risks in shortage of water, malaria, food, the risk of the coast flood by temperature function and clarified the level of critical climate change. According to their evaluation, the population to be affected by the shortage of water suddenly increases in the range where temperature increases from 1.5 to 2.0 degree in 2080s. They showed how much we need to reduce emissions in order to draw-down significantly the number at risk. This evaluation of critical climate change threats and targets of water shortage did not include the water withdrawal divided by water availability. Shen et al (2008a) estimated the water withdrawal of projection of future world water resources according to socio-economic driving factors predicted for scenarios A1b, A2, B1, and B2 of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). However, these results were in function of not temperature but time. The assessment of the highly water-stressed population considered the socioeconomic development is necessary for a function of the temperature. Because of it is easy to understand to need to reduce emission. We present a multi-GCM analysis of the global and regional populations lived in highly water-stressed basin for a function of the temperature using the socioeconomic data and the outputs of GCMs. In scenario A2, the population increases gradually with warming. On the other hand, the future projection population in scenario A1b and B1 increase gradually until the temperature anomaly exceeds around from +1 to +1.5 degree. After that the population is almost constant. From Shen et al (2008b), we evaluated the HWSP and its ratio in the world with temperature function for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 by the index of W/Q. In global, the HWSP in scenario A2 increased rapidly when the anomaly of temperature is exceeding to about +1.5 degree. In the case of the scenario A1b, the gradient of increase of HWSP was less than that in the case of the scenario A2. When the value of temperature anomaly was exceeding to about + 1.5 degree, the gradient of increase of HWSP became loose. On the other hand, the HWSP in the scenario B1 decreased when the temperature anomaly was exceeding to about +1.2 degree. According to the estimation of the HWSP when the effect of climate change was ignored (that is, runoff was not changed), the HWSP was almost same (not shown). This result implied that it is strongly contributed by not the climate change but the socio-economical factors (ex; an irrigated area, increase of industrial water use, increase of population itself). In Parry et al (2001), the renewed high stressed population by coastal flooding, hunger, malaria, and water shortage were estimated. The risks of hunger and coastal flooding increase gradually with the warming. Risk of malaria widely increases. Meanwhile, the risk of water shortage rapidly increases after the temperature anomaly exceeds around +2.0 degree. From this result, they insist that the "dangerous level" for sustainable development is +2.0 degree and the target emission level is 550 ppmv. However, they did not consider the quantity of water intake. We estimated the HWSP considering the quantity of water withdrawal and its projection in future. From our result, the "dangerous level" is disagreed. We can insist that the climate change is not so effective within the water withdrawal. If anything, the socio-economic elements, for instance the variation of irrigation areas, industrial water withdrawal, and population itself, contribute to the HWSP. The HWSP and its ratio in each country should be necessary for not only scientific issue but also political issue.

Global earthquake fatalities and population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holzer, Thomas L.; Savage, James C.

2013-01-01

Modern global earthquake fatalities can be separated into two components: (1) fatalities from an approximately constant annual background rate that is independent of world population growth and (2) fatalities caused by earthquakes with large human death tolls, the frequency of which is dependent on world population. Earthquakes with death tolls greater than 100,000 (and 50,000) have increased with world population and obey a nonstationary Poisson distribution with rate proportional to population. We predict that the number of earthquakes with death tolls greater than 100,000 (50,000) will increase in the 21st century to 8.7±3.3 (20.5±4.3) from 4 (7) observed in the 20th century if world population reaches 10.1 billion in 2100. Combining fatalities caused by the background rate with fatalities caused by catastrophic earthquakes (>100,000 fatalities) indicates global fatalities in the 21st century will be 2.57±0.64 million if the average post-1900 death toll for catastrophic earthquakes (193,000) is assumed.

Persistent drying in the tropics linked to natural forcing.

PubMed

Winter, Amos; Zanchettin, Davide; Miller, Thomas; Kushnir, Yochanan; Black, David; Lohmann, Gerrit; Burnett, Allison; Haug, Gerald H; Estrella-Martínez, Juan; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M; Beaufort, Luc; Rubino, Angelo; Cheng, Hai

2015-07-14

Approximately half of the world's population lives in the tropics, and future changes in the hydrological cycle will impact not just the freshwater supplies but also energy production in areas dependent upon hydroelectric power. It is vital that we understand the mechanisms/processes that affect tropical precipitation and the eventual surface hydrological response to better assess projected future regional precipitation trends and variability. Paleo-climate proxies are well suited for this purpose as they provide long time series that pre-date and complement the present, often short instrumental observations. Here we present paleo-precipitation data from a speleothem located in Mesoamerica that reveal large multi-decadal declines in regional precipitation, whose onset coincides with clusters of large volcanic eruptions during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. This reconstruction provides new independent evidence of long-lasting volcanic effects on climate and elucidates key aspects of the causal chain of physical processes determining the tropical climate response to global radiative forcing.

Food security and marine capture fisheries: characteristics, trends, drivers and future perspectives

PubMed Central

Garcia, Serge M.; Rosenberg, Andrew A.

2010-01-01

World population is expected to grow from the present 6.8 billion people to about 9 billion by 2050. The growing need for nutritious and healthy food will increase the demand for fisheries products from marine sources, whose productivity is already highly stressed by excessive fishing pressure, growing organic pollution, toxic contamination, coastal degradation and climate change. Looking towards 2050, the question is how fisheries governance, and the national and international policy and legal frameworks within which it is nested, will ensure a sustainable harvest, maintain biodiversity and ecosystem functions, and adapt to climate change. This paper looks at global fisheries production, the state of resources, contribution to food security and governance. It describes the main changes affecting the sector, including geographical expansion, fishing capacity-building, natural variability, environmental degradation and climate change. It identifies drivers and future challenges, while suggesting how new science, policies and interventions could best address those challenges. PMID:20713390

Thirst for Power: Energy, Water and Human Survival

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grubert, E.; Webber, M.

2017-12-01

Although it is widely understood that energy and water are the world's two most critical resources, their vital interconnections and vulnerabilities are less often recognized. This talk offers a holistic way of thinking about energy and water—a big picture approach that reveals the interdependence of the two resources, identifies the seriousness of the challenges, and lays out an optimistic approach with an array of solutions to ensure the continuing sustainability of both. The talk discusses how current population growth, economic growth, climate change, and short-sighted policies are likely to make things worse. Yet, more integrated planning with long-term sustainability in mind can avert such a daunting future. Combining anecdotes and personal stories with insights into the latest science of energy and water, the talk identifies a hopeful path toward wise long-range water-energy decisions and a more reliable and abundant future for humanity.

Global burden of COPD.

PubMed

López-Campos, José Luis; Tan, Wan; Soriano, Joan B

2016-01-01

It is estimated that the world population will reach a record 7.3 billion in 2015, and the high burden of chronic conditions associated with ageing and smoking will increase further. Respiratory diseases in general receive little attention and funding in comparison with other major causes of global morbidity and mortality. In particular, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been a major public health problem and will remain a challenge for clinicians within the 21st century. Worldwide, COPD is in the spotlight, since its high prevalence, morbidity and mortality create formidable challenges for health-care systems. This review emphasizes the magnitude of the COPD problem from a clinician's standpoint by drawing extensively from the new findings of the Global Burden of Disease study. Updated, distilled information on the population distribution of COPD is useful for the clinician to help provide an appreciation of the relative impact of COPD in daily practice compared with other chronic conditions, and to allocate minimum resources in anticipation of future needs in care. Despite recent trends in reduction of COPD standardized mortality rates and some recent successes in anti-smoking efforts in a number of Western countries, the overarching demographic impact of ageing in an ever-expanding world population, joined with other factors such as high rates of smoking and air pollution in Asia, will ensure that COPD will continue to pose an ever-increasing problem well into the 21st century. © 2015 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

The demography of Islam.

PubMed

Roudi, N

1988-03-01

Moslems comprise the majority of the population in 40 countries and 28 countries have populations that are more than 90% Moslem. As a result of high fertility among its adherents, Islam is the fastest growing religion in the world. Total fertility rates among Moslems range from a low 3.3 children/woman in Albania to 8/woman in North Yemen. Numerous studies have shown that Moslems have larger families than other religious groups in the same national population. The Koran, a source of Islamic law, makes no references to contraception and many Islamic jurists have sanctioned contraception as long as the method is not harmful or affects the person's future fertility. Abortion, on the other hand, is generally prohibited after 120 days of gestation--the point at which the fetus is believed to become a human being. The contradiction between permissive Islamic teachings on fertility control and low levels of contraceptive use among Moslem women is attributable to the subordinate status of women in Islamic society. Lack of education for women remains widespread in the Moslem world and is certainly a contributor to high fertility. In addition, the ease with which a wife can be divorced under Moslem law places her in an insecure position and makes a high number of sons seem an economic necessity. Despite the patriarchal nature of Moslem society, a number of countries have instituted active national family planning programs and have achieved contraceptive prevalence rates as high as 53% (Lebanon).

Food and nutrition labelling in Thailand: a long march from subsistence producers to international traders

PubMed Central

Rimpeekool, Wimalin; Seubsman, Sam-ang; Banwell, Cathy; Kirk, Martyn; Yiengprugsawan, Vasoontara; Sleigh, Adrian

2015-01-01

This paper reviews the evolution of Thai food and nutrition label policies and Thailand’s international role relating to food product safety and standards. The historical record has been interpreted to identify future trends and challenges related to food labelling. These challenges are arising in Thailand and many similar emerging economies. Thailand has a good reputation in world food markets and is now becoming a global leader in food production and export. It has become deeply involved with regulations and standards applied by World Trade Organization and Codex Alimentarius while serving its own population with a safe and secure food supply. For consumers considering Thai food products, food labels can provide useful nutrition information and help build trust. Thais began a century ago with policies and laws to enhance food safety and to protect Thai consumers. During the lengthy journey from national to global standards Thai food labels have evolved and now contribute to international food labelling policies. This contribution comes from the perspective of a leading middle income south-east Asian food producer now trading with high income countries around the world. The story of that journey – a case study for many other countries in a similar situation – has not previously been told. This article provides information for policy makers dealing with food labelling, embedding trends and tensions for one middle income food exporter in a long history. Information captured here should be helpful for other middle income countries, especially those with limited records. This strategic knowledge will enable better decisions for future policies. PMID:26538793

Effective Planning of the Future of the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sentsov, A.; Bolsunovskaya, Yu; Bolsunovskaya, L.

2014-08-01

The problems of the Arctic region have become the most important ones in the world. Political risks hinder the industrial development of the region. This paper addresses the problem of planning and modeling the future of this region. It presents the problems of developing a model of the future due to the ideologies and strategies of two main actors in the Arctic, the United States and the Russian Federation. The effects of a bipolar perception of the future of the region and of the whole world are shown. A model of the effective planning of the future of the Arctic region is proposed.

Determinants of health and disability in ageing population: the COURAGE in Europe Project (collaborative research on ageing in Europe).

PubMed

Leonardi, Matilde; Chatterji, Somnath; Koskinen, Seppo; Ayuso-Mateos, Jose Luis; Haro, Josep Maria; Frisoni, Giovanni; Frattura, Lucilla; Martinuzzi, Andrea; Tobiasz-Adamczyk, Beata; Gmurek, Michal; Serrano, Ramon; Finocchiaro, Carla

2014-01-01

COURAGE in Europe was a 3-year project involving 12 partners from four European countries and the World Health Organization. It was inspired by the pressing need to integrate international studies on disability and ageing in light of an innovative perspective based on a validated data-collection protocol. COURAGE in Europe Project collected data on the determinants of health and disability in an ageing population, with specific tools for the evaluation of the role of the built environment and social networks on health, disability, quality of life and well-being. The main survey was conducted by partners in Finland, Poland and Spain where the survey has been administered to a sample of 10,800 persons, which was completed in March 2012. The newly developed and validated COURAGE Protocol for Ageing Studies has proven to be a valid tool for collecting comparable data in ageing population, and the COURAGE in Europe Project has created valid and reliable scientific evidence, demonstrating cross-country comparability, for disability and ageing research and policy development. It is therefore recommended that future studies exploring determinants of health and disability in ageing use the COURAGE-derived methodology. COURAGE in Europe Project collected data on the determinants of health and disability in an ageing population, with specific tools for the evaluation of the role of built environment and social networks on health, disability quality of life and well-being. The COURAGE Protocol for Ageing Studies has proven to be a valid tool for collecting comparable data in the ageing population. The COURAGE in Europe Consortium recommends that future studies exploring determinants of health and disability in ageing use COURAGE-derived methodology. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Future of Virtual Worlds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bainbridge, William Sims; Lutters, Wayne; Rhoten, Diana; Lowood, Henry

This book, like the May 2008 conference in World of Warcraft, ends with projections toward what the future might hold for virtual worlds. Every chapter thus far has included speculations about future directions, even while standing on data from the past. This last chapter, like the final session of the conference on which it is based, incorporates comments from dozens of participants into a stream of ideas. We have edited selected comments together with the panel's contributions. Our intention is to provide a portal from this book into a wider virtual community comprising researchers and residents in virtual worlds. The discussion surveys many recent lines of development, some of which have already been surveyed in scientific and historical literature, or by journalists (Au 2008; Castronova 2007; Guest 2007; Ludlow and Wallace 2007). Yet, many of the topics here have not received such attention. Considered as a set of socio-technical innovations, virtual worlds are not just about technical possibilities; they also inspired the participants to consider the economic bases for investing in those possibilities and the novel cultural, social, and artistic forms virtual worlds might offer.

Smoking Beliefs Among Chinese Secondary School Students: A Theory-Based Qualitative Study.

PubMed

Zhao, Xiang; White, Katherine M; Young, Ross McD; Obst, Patricia L

2018-02-07

China has the world's greatest number of smokers but theory-based smoking interventions are rare. To develop an effective intervention, understanding the determinants of Chinese adolescent smoking is crucial. The Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) is empirically supported to predict and assist in informing intervention strategies to change health-related behaviors. Based on the TPB, the elicitation of shared smoking beliefs among adolescents can inform future intervention designs among this at-risk population. We investigated the beliefs from six focus groups (N = 30) of one senior secondary school in Kunming, Yunnan Province, China. We used semi-structured questions based on the TPB framework, including prompts about behavioral (advantages and disadvantages), normative (important referents), and control (barriers and facilitators) beliefs. Following the Consensual Qualitative Research (CQR) methodology, data were discussed until consensus was reached. Auditing was undertaken by an external researcher. Seven domains (advantages, disadvantages, approvers, disapprovers, facilitators, barriers, and smoker images) were examined. Smoking as a gendered behavior, smoking as influenced by cultural and environmental contexts, smoking as a strategy to cope with stress, and awareness of the harm of smoking, are highlighted themes across domains. Data suggested an extended-TPB framework as an appropriate approach to adopt when addressing smoking beliefs among the target population. These beliefs can be utilized to inform future school-based interventions and public health campaigns targeting smoking among Chinese adolescents. A modified TPB approach has potential for future smoking interventions among Chinese adolescents. Beliefs elicited in this study form a strong basis for designing a location- and population-specific antismoking programme. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A framework for global river flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Jongman, B.; Ward, P. J.; Bouwman, A.

2012-08-01

There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate. The framework estimates hazard at high resolution (~1 km2) using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood routing model, and importantly, a flood extent downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case-study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard and damage estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database and damage estimates from the EM-DAT database and World Bank sources. We discuss and show sensitivities of the estimated risks with regard to the use of different climate input sets, decisions made in the downscaling algorithm, and different approaches to establish impact models.

Cancer burden with ageing population in urban regions in China: projection on cancer registry data from World Health Organization.

PubMed

Tsoi, Kelvin K F; Hirai, Hoyee W; Chan, Felix C H; Griffiths, Sian; Sung, Joseph J Y

2017-01-01

China is facing the challenges of an expanding ageing population and the impact of rapid urbanization, cancer rates are subsequently increasing. This study focuses on the changes of the ageing population and projects the incidence of common ageing-related cancers in the urban regions in China up to 2030. Cancer incidence data and population statistics in China were extracted from the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Due to improving longevity in China, continuous and remarkable increasing trends for the lung, colorectal and prostate cancers are expected. The rate of expanding ageing population was taken into account when predicting the trend of cancer incidence; the estimations of ageing-related cancers were more factual and significant than using the conventional approach of age standardization. The incidence rates of lung, colorectal and prostate cancers will continue to rise in the future decades due to the rise of ageing population. Lifestyle modification such as cutting tobacco smoking rates and promoting healthier diets as well as cancer screening programs should be a health system priority in order to decrease the growing burden of cancer-related mortality and morbidity. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Induction of sexual reproduction and genetic diversity in the cheese fungus Penicillium roqueforti

PubMed Central

Ropars, Jeanne; López-Villavicencio, Manuela; Dupont, Joëlle; Snirc, Alodie; Gillot, Guillaume; Coton, Monika; Jany, Jean-Luc; Coton, Emmanuel; Giraud, Tatiana

2014-01-01

The emblematic fungus Penicillium roqueforti is used throughout the world as a starter culture in the production of blue-veined cheeses. Like other industrial filamentous fungi, P. roqueforti was thought to lack a sexual cycle. However, an ability to induce recombination is of great economic and fundamental importance, as it would make it possible to transform and improve industrial strains, promoting the creation of novel phenotypes and eliminating the deleterious mutations that accumulate during clonal propagation. We report here, for the first time, the induction of the sexual structures of P. roqueforti — ascogonia, cleistothecia and ascospores. The progeny of the sexual cycle displayed clear evidence of recombination. We also used the recently published genome sequence for this species to develop microsatellite markers for investigating the footprints of recombination and population structure in a large collection of isolates from around the world and from different environments. Indeed, P. roqueforti also occurs in silage, wood and human-related environments other than cheese. We found tremendous genetic diversity within P. roqueforti, even within cheese strains and identified six highly differentiated clusters that probably predate the use of this species for cheese production. Screening for phenotypic and metabolic differences between these populations could guide future development strategies. PMID:24822078

Linking rapid erosion of the Mekong River delta to human activities.

PubMed

Anthony, Edward J; Brunier, Guillaume; Besset, Manon; Goichot, Marc; Dussouillez, Philippe; Nguyen, Van Lap

2015-10-08

As international concern for the survival of deltas grows, the Mekong River delta, the world's third largest delta, densely populated, considered as Southeast Asia's most important food basket, and rich in biodiversity at the world scale, is also increasingly affected by human activities and exposed to subsidence and coastal erosion. Several dams have been constructed upstream of the delta and many more are now planned. We quantify from high-resolution SPOT 5 satellite images large-scale shoreline erosion and land loss between 2003 and 2012 that now affect over 50% of the once strongly advancing >600 km-long delta shoreline. Erosion, with no identified change in the river's discharge and in wave and wind conditions over this recent period, is consistent with: (1) a reported significant decrease in coastal surface suspended sediment from the Mekong that may be linked to dam retention of its sediment, (2) large-scale commercial sand mining in the river and delta channels, and (3) subsidence due to groundwater extraction. Shoreline erosion is already responsible for displacement of coastal populations. It is an additional hazard to the integrity of this Asian mega delta now considered particularly vulnerable to accelerated subsidence and sea-level rise, and will be exacerbated by future hydropower dams.

Genetic polymorphisms of cytokine genes in type 2 diabetes mellitus

PubMed Central

Banerjee, Monisha; Saxena, Madhukar

2014-01-01

Diabetes mellitus is a combined metabolic disorder which includes hyperglycemia, dyslipidemia, stroke and several other complications. Various groups all over the world are relentlessly working out the possible role of a vast number of genes associated with type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Inflammation is an important outcome of any kind of imbalance in the body and is therefore an indicator of several diseases, including T2DM. Various ethnic populations around the world show different levels of variations in single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). The present review was undertaken to explore the association of cytokine gene polymorphisms with T2DM in populations of different ethnicities. This will lead to the understanding of the role of cytokine genes in T2DM risk and development. Association studies of genotypes of SNPs present in cytokine genes will help to identify risk haplotype(s) for disease susceptibility by developing prognostic markers and alter treatment strategies for T2DM and related complications. This will enable individuals at risk to take prior precautionary measures and avoid or delay the onset of the disease. Future challenges will be to understand the genotypic interactions between SNPs in one cytokine gene or several genes at different loci and study their association with T2DM. PMID:25126395

A systematic review of psychosocial interventions for adult refugees and asylum seekers.

PubMed

Tribe, Rachel H; Sendt, Kyra-Verena; Tracy, Derek K

2017-05-09

Europe is in the midst of the largest refugee migration since the Second World War; there is an urgent need to provide an updated systematic review of the current best evidence for managing mental distress in refugee populations. The aim of this review is to provide an exhaustive summary of the current literature on psychosocial interventions, both trauma- and non-trauma-focused, for refugee populations experiencing post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depressive or anxiety symptoms. To produce recommendations for future research and current clinical practice. Searches were conducted in PubMed, PsychINFO (Hosted by Ovid), PILOTS and Social Services Abstracts; 5305 articles were screened and 40 were included. This review found medium to high quality evidence supporting the use of narrative exposure therapy (NET). A lack of culturally adapted treatments was apparent and there was less evidence to support standard cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT), Eye Movement Desensitisation and Reprocessing (EMDR) and multidisciplinary treatments. NET produced positive outcomes in refugees from a diverse range of backgrounds and trauma types. There is a general dearth of research in all intervention types: further research should include more "real-world" multidisciplinary interventions that better model clinical practice. Recommendations for evaluating local need, and creating a culturally sensitive workforce are discussed.

Implementing recommendations of the World Report on Disability for indigenous populations.

PubMed

Westby, Carol

2013-02-01

Typically, the types of services provided for people with communication disorders (PWCD) and the ways the services are provided have been designed for dominant populations in the Minority World. If services are to be truly accessible and equitable, they must be designed to account for cultural variations in beliefs, needs, and desires of PWCD and their families. This article describes the health conditions that put indigenous populations at particular risk for communicative disorders and gives examples of ways in which speech-language pathologists (SLPs) have addressed the recommendations of the World Report on Disability when working with PWCD in indigenous communities in Minority World countries.

Environment, migration and the European demographic deficit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harper, Sarah

2012-03-01

Many countries in the more developed world, and some in the less developed, are facing new economic and social pressures associated with the ageing of their populations. Europe, in particular, is forecast to have a demographic deficit, which may be alleviated by in-migration to the region. However, several commentators have proposed that Europe will not be able to successfully compete with other regions, in particular Asia, in the coming years for the skills it will require. This letter explores these themes, arguing that climate change will increase the attractiveness of Europe as a destination of economic choice for future skilled workers, to the detriment of more environmentally challenged regions.

Measuring System for Growth Control of the Spirulina Aquaculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponce S., Claudio; Ponce L., Ernesto; Bernardo S., Barraza

2008-11-01

It describes the workings of a data-logging instrument that measures growth levels of the Spirulina aquaculture. The Spirulina is a very delicate algae and its culture may be suddenly lost due to overgrowth. This kind of instrument is not at present available in the market. The transduction is a submergible laser device whose measuring margin of error is near to 0.28%. The advantage of this new instrument is the improvement in the measurement and the low cost. The future application of this work is related to the industrial production of food and fuel from micro algae culture, for the growing world population.

Why Population Matters, 1996.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Population Action International, Washington, DC.

Population growth around the world affects Americans through its impact on economy, environment, safety, and health, and the condition of the world children will inherit. The cumulative evidence is strong that current rates of population growth pose significant and interacting risks to human well-being and are a legitimate concern for Americans.…

Educating for the Future: The Position of School Geography

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pauw, Iris

2015-01-01

Documents about "skills for the twenty-first century" envisage an increasingly competitive, globalized and technologically advanced world that schools should prepare for by focusing on a range of "skills". Policy documents and position papers about geographical education mainly assume that the world of the near future will be…

Current Directions in Videoconferencing Tele-Mental Health Research

PubMed Central

Richardson, Lisa K.; Frueh, B. Christopher; Grubaugh, Anouk L.; Egede, Leonard; Elhai, Jon D.

2009-01-01

The provision of mental health services via videoconferencing tele-mental health has become an increasingly routine component of mental health service delivery throughout the world. Emphasizing the research literature since 2003, we examine: 1) the extent to which the field of tele-mental health has advanced the research agenda previously suggested; and 2) implications for tele-mental health care delivery for special clinical populations. Previous findings have demonstrated that tele-mental health services are satisfactory to patients, improve outcomes, and are probably cost effective. In the very small number of randomized controlled studies that have been conducted to date, tele-mental health has demonstrated equivalent efficacy compared to face-to-face care in a variety of clinical settings and with specific patient populations. However, methodologically flawed or limited research studies are the norm, and thus the research agenda for tele-mental health has not been fully maximized. Implications for future research and practice are discussed. PMID:20161010

An Energy-Economy-Environment Model for Simulating the Impacts of Socioeconomic Development on Energy and Environment

PubMed Central

Yao, Bo

2014-01-01

Many rapidly developing regions have begun to draw the attention of the world. Meanwhile, the energy and environmental issues associated with rapid economic growth have aroused widespread critical concern. Therefore, studying energy, economic, and environmental systems is of great importance. This study establishes a system dynamic model that covers multiple aspects of those systems, such as energy, economy, population, water pollution, air pollution, solid waste, and technology. The model designed here attempts to determine the impacts of socioeconomic development on the energy and environment of Tongzhou District in three scenarios: under current, planning, and sustainable conditions. The results reveal that energy shortages and water pollutions are very serious and are the key issues constraining future social and economic development. Solid waste emissions increase with population growth. The prediction results provide valuable insights into social advancement. PMID:24683332

Significant Atmospheric Aerosol Pollution Caused by World Food Cultivation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauer, Susanne E.; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Miller, Ron

2016-01-01

Particulate matter is a major concern for public health, causing cancer and cardiopulmonary mortality. Therefore, governments in most industrialized countries monitor and set limits for particulate matter. To assist policy makers, it is important to connect the chemical composition and severity of particulate pollution to its sources. Here we show how agricultural practices, livestock production, and the use of nitrogen fertilizers impact near-surface air quality. In many densely populated areas, aerosols formed from gases that are released by fertilizer application and animal husbandry dominate over the combined contributions from all other anthropogenic pollution. Here we test reduction scenarios of combustion-based and agricultural emissions that could lower air pollution. For a future scenario, we find opposite trends, decreasing nitrate aerosol formation near the surface while total tropospheric loads increase. This suggests that food production could be increased to match the growing global population without sacrificing air quality if combustion emission is decreased.

Too much of a good thing? Nitrate from nitrogen fertilizers and cancer.

PubMed

Ward, Mary H

2009-01-01

Nitrate levels in water supplies have been increasing in many areas of the world; therefore, additional studies of populations with well-characterized exposures are urgently needed to further our understanding of cancer risk associated with nitrate ingestion. Future studies should assess exposure for individuals (e.g., case-control, cohort studies) in a time frame relevant to disease development, and evaluate factors affecting nitrosation. Estimating N-nitroso compounds formation via nitrate ingestion requires information on dietary and drinking water sources of nitrate, inhibitors of nitrosation (e.g., vitamin C), nitrosation precursors (e.g., red meat, nitrosatable drugs), and medical conditions that may increase nitrosation (e.g., inflammatory bowel disease). Studies should account for the potentially different effects of dietary and water sources of nitrate and should include the population using private wells for whom exposure levels are often higher than public supplies.

Nursing's leadership in positioning human health at the core of urban sustainability.

PubMed

St Pierre Schneider, Barbara; Menzel, Nancy; Clark, Michele; York, Nancy; Candela, Lori; Xu, Yu

2009-01-01

The United Nations predicts that by 2050 nearly three fourths of the world's population will live in urban areas, including cities. People are attracted to cities because these urban areas offer diverse opportunities, including the availability of goods and services and a higher quality of life. Cities, however, may not be sustainable with this population boom. To address sustainability, urban developers and engineers are building green structures, and businesses are creating products that are safe for the environment. Additionally, efforts are needed to place human health at the core of urban sustainability. Without human health, cities will not survive for future generations. Nursing is the discipline that can place human health in this position. Nursing's initiatives throughout history are efforts of sustainability-improving human health within the physical, economic, and social environments. Therefore, nursing must take a leadership role to ensure that human health is at the core of urban sustainability.

Superinfection exclusion and the long-term survival of honey bees in Varroa-infested colonies

PubMed Central

Mordecai, Gideon J; Brettell, Laura E; Martin, Stephen J; Dixon, David; Jones, Ian M; Schroeder, Declan C

2016-01-01

Over the past 50 years, many millions of European honey bee (Apis mellifera) colonies have died as the ectoparasitic mite, Varroa destructor, has spread around the world. Subsequent studies have indicated that the mite's association with a group of RNA viral pathogens (Deformed Wing Virus, DWV) correlates with colony death. Here, we propose a phenomenon known as superinfection exclusion that provides an explanation of how certain A. mellifera populations have survived, despite Varroa infestation and high DWV loads. Next-generation sequencing has shown that a non-lethal DWV variant ‘type B' has become established in these colonies and that the lethal ‘type A' DWV variant fails to persist in the bee population. We propose that this novel stable host-pathogen relationship prevents the accumulation of lethal variants, suggesting that this interaction could be exploited for the development of an effective treatment that minimises colony losses in the future. PMID:26505829

[Weight-for-age percentile curves for the population of Catamarca province (Argentina)].

PubMed

López Barbancho, Diego; Terán de Frutos, José Manuel; Candelas González, Nieves; Díaz de Luna, María Cristina; Marrodán Serrano, María Dolores; Lomaglio, Delia Beatriz

2014-09-12

The assessment of fetal development and birth weight is a priority in the field of nutritional epidemiology and public health. Nowadays, the World Health Organization (WHO) does not have specific birth weight curves for the distinct gestational weeks considering that socio-economic, ecological and ethnic characteristics of the different human groups are found influencing their own growth patterns. This research develops centile curves for weight by gestational age concerning to resident populations in the province of Catamarca. In order to process data, SPSS statistical program was used, as well as LMS Chart Maker pro program for the subsequent performing of centile curves. The sample ascended to a total of 22,576 childbirths between 1994 and 2003. In the future, these curves make possible a better assessment of intrauterine development and birth weight in this region of Northwest of Argentina. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

Linking population, fertility, and family planning with adaptation to climate change: perspectives from Ethiopia.

PubMed

Rovin, Kimberly; Hardee, Karen; Kidanu, Aklilu

2013-09-01

Global climate change is felt disproportionately in the world's most economically disadvantaged countries. As adaption to an evolving climate becomes increasingly salient on national and global scales, it is important to assess how people at the local-level are already coping with changes. Understanding local responses to climate change is essential for helping countries to construct strategies to bolster resilience to current and future effects. This qualitative research investigated responses to climate change in Ethiopia; specifically, how communities react to and cope with climate variation, which groups are most vulnerable, and the role of family planning in increasing resilience. Participants were highly aware of changing climate effects, impacts of rapid population growth, and the need for increased access to voluntary family planning. Identification of family planning as an important adaptation strategy supports the inclusion of rights-based voluntary family planning and reproductive health into local and national climate change adaptation plans.

Monitoring Diabrotica v. virgifera (Col.: Chrysomelidae) in southeastern Slovenia: increasing population trend and host spectrum expansion.

PubMed

Ulrichs, C; Dinnesen, S; Nedelev, T; Hummel, H E; Modic, S; Urek, G

2008-01-01

Ever since the western corn rootworm (WCR) (Diabrotica virgifera virgifera), an alien invasive species from North America, has been introduced into Europe on at least 3 separate occasions, it spread within 15 years over the entire area of south-eastern and central Europe (except Denmark). Until quite recently, Zea mays L. was the only known host plant whereas in North America WCR also attacks members of the plant family Cucurbitaceae. In August of 2006, we were able to validate these findings also in the Old World by observing WCR visiting blossoms of oil pumpkin (Cucurbita pepo L.). Beside this first report of WCR on this regionally and economically important crop, a population increase in Gaberje near Lendava, Eastern Slovenia, was observed. Some future consequences of multiple hosts for integrated pest management (IPM) of WCR are being discussed.

Significant atmospheric aerosol pollution caused by world food cultivation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauer, Susanne E.; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Miller, Ron

2016-05-01

Particulate matter is a major concern for public health, causing cancer and cardiopulmonary mortality. Therefore, governments in most industrialized countries monitor and set limits for particulate matter. To assist policy makers, it is important to connect the chemical composition and severity of particulate pollution to its sources. Here we show how agricultural practices, livestock production, and the use of nitrogen fertilizers impact near-surface air quality. In many densely populated areas, aerosols formed from gases that are released by fertilizer application and animal husbandry dominate over the combined contributions from all other anthropogenic pollution. Here we test reduction scenarios of combustion-based and agricultural emissions that could lower air pollution. For a future scenario, we find opposite trends, decreasing nitrate aerosol formation near the surface while total tropospheric loads increase. This suggests that food production could be increased to match the growing global population without sacrificing air quality if combustion emission is decreased.

Significant atmospheric aerosol pollution caused by world food cultivation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauer, Susanne E.; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Miller, Ron

2017-04-01

Particulate matter is a major concern for public health, causing cancer and cardiopulmonary mortality. Therefore, governments in most industrialized countries monitor and set limits for particulate matter. To assist policy makers, it is important to connect the chemical composition and severity of particulate pollution to it s sources. Here we show how agricultural practices, livestock production, and the use of nitrogen fertilizers impact near-surface air quality. In many densely populated areas, aerosols formed from gases that are released by fertilizer application and animal husbandry dominate over the combined contributions from all other anthropogenic pollution. Here we test reduction scenarios of combustion-based and agricultural emissions that could lower air pollution. For a future scenario, we find opposite trends, decreasing nitrate aerosol formation near the surface while total tropospheric loads increase. This suggests that food production could be increased to match the growing global population without sacrificing air quality if combustion emission is decreased.

Robotics in Orthopedics: A Brave New World.

PubMed

Parsley, Brian S

2018-02-16

Future health-care projection projects a significant growth in population by 2020. Health care has seen an exponential growth in technology to address the growing population with the decreasing number of physicians and health-care workers. Robotics in health care has been introduced to address this growing need. Early adoption of robotics was limited because of the limited application of the technology, the cumbersome nature of the equipment, and technical complications. A continued improvement in efficacy, adaptability, and cost reduction has stimulated increased interest in robotic-assisted surgery. The evolution in orthopedic surgery has allowed for advanced surgical planning, precision robotic machining of bone, improved implant-bone contact, optimization of implant placement, and optimization of the mechanical alignment. The potential benefits of robotic surgery include improved surgical work flow, improvements in efficacy and reduction in surgical time. Robotic-assisted surgery will continue to evolve in the orthopedic field. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hierarchical models of very large problems, dilemmas, prospects, and an agenda for the future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, J. M., Jr.

1975-01-01

Interdisciplinary approaches to the modeling of global problems are discussed in terms of multilevel cooperation. A multilevel regionalized model of the Lake Erie Basin is analyzed along with a multilevel regionalized world modeling project. Other topics discussed include: a stratified model of interacting region in a world system, and the application of the model to the world food crisis in south Asia. Recommended research for future development of integrated models is included.

Preferential Inspection of Recent Real-World Events Over Future Events: Evidence from Eye Tracking during Spoken Sentence Comprehension

PubMed Central

Knoeferle, Pia; Carminati, Maria Nella; Abashidze, Dato; Essig, Kai

2011-01-01

Eye-tracking findings suggest people prefer to ground their spoken language comprehension by focusing on recently seen events more than anticipating future events: When the verb in NP1-VERB-ADV-NP2 sentences was referentially ambiguous between a recently depicted and an equally plausible future clipart action, listeners fixated the target of the recent action more often at the verb than the object that hadn’t yet been acted upon. We examined whether this inspection preference generalizes to real-world events, and whether it is (vs. isn’t) modulated by how often people see recent and future events acted out. In a first eye-tracking study, the experimenter performed an action (e.g., sugaring pancakes), and then a spoken sentence either referred to that action or to an equally plausible future action (e.g., sugaring strawberries). At the verb, people more often inspected the pancakes (the recent target) than the strawberries (the future target), thus replicating the recent-event preference with these real-world actions. Adverb tense, indicating a future versus past event, had no effect on participants’ visual attention. In a second study we increased the frequency of future actions such that participants saw 50/50 future and recent actions. During the verb people mostly inspected the recent action target, but subsequently they began to rely on tense, and anticipated the future target more often for future than past tense adverbs. A corpus study showed that the verbs and adverbs indicating past versus future actions were equally frequent, suggesting long-term frequency biases did not cause the recent-event preference. Thus, (a) recent real-world actions can rapidly influence comprehension (as indexed by eye gaze to objects), and (b) people prefer to first inspect a recent action target (vs. an object that will soon be acted upon), even when past and future actions occur with equal frequency. A simple frequency-of-experience account cannot accommodate these findings. PMID:22207858

Transboundary aquifers: conceptual models for development of international law.

PubMed

Eckstein, Yoram; Eckstein, Gabriel E

2005-01-01

More than one-half of the world's population is dependent on ground water for everyday uses such as drinking, cooking, and hygiene. In fact, it is the most extracted natural resource in the world. As a result of growing populations and expanding economies, many aquifers today are being depleted while others are being contaminated. Notwithstanding the world's considerable reliance on this resource, ground water resources have long received only secondary attention as compared to surface water, especially among legislatures and policymakers. Today, while there are hundreds of treaties governing transboundary rivers and lakes, there is only one international agreement that directly addresses a transboundary aquifer. Given that many of the aquifers on which humanity so heavily relies cross international borders, there is a considerable gap in the sound management, allocation, and protection of such resources. In order to prevent future disputes over transboundary aquifers and to maximize the beneficial use of this resource, international law must be clarified as it applies to transboundary ground water resources. Moreover, it must be defined with a firm basis in sound scientific understanding. In this paper we offer six conceptual models is which ground water resources can have transboudary consequences. The models are intended to help in assessing the applicability and scientific soundness of existing and proposed rules governing transboundary ground water resources. In addition, we consider the development of international law as it applies to ground water resources and make recommendations based on the models and principles of hydrogeology. The objective is the development of clear, logical, and science-based norms of state conducts as they relate to aquifers that traverse political boundaries.

The epidemiology of personality disorders in the Sao Paulo Megacity general population.

PubMed

Santana, Geilson Lima; Coelho, Bruno Mendonca; Wang, Yuan-Pang; Chiavegatto Filho, Alexandre Dias Porto; Viana, Maria Carmen; Andrade, Laura Helena

2018-01-01

Most studies on the epidemiology of personality disorders (PDs) have been conducted in high-income countries and may not represent what happens in most part of the world. In the last decades, population growth has been concentrated in low- and middle-income countries, with rapid urbanization, increasing inequalities and escalation of violence. Our aim is to estimate the prevalence of PDs in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area, one of the largest megacities of the world. We examined sociodemographic correlates, the influence of urban stressors, the comorbidity with other mental disorders, functional impairment and treatment. A representative household sample of 2,942 adults was interviewed using the WHO-Composite International Diagnostic Interview and the International Personality Disorder Examination-Screening Questionnaire. Diagnoses were multiply imputed, and analyses used multivariable regression. Prevalence estimates were 4.3% (Cluster A), 2.7% (Cluster B), 4.6% (Cluster C) and 6.8% (any PD). Cumulative exposure to violence was associated with all PDs except Cluster A, although urbanicity, migration and neighborhood social deprivation were not significant predictors. Comorbidity was the rule, and all clusters were associated with other mental disorders. Lack of treatment is a reality in Greater Sao Paulo, and this is especially true for PDs. With the exception of Cluster C, non-comorbid PDs remained largely untreated in spite of functional impairment independent of other mental disorders. Personality disorders are prevalent, clinically significant and undertreated, and public health strategies must address the unmet needs of these subjects. Our results may reflect what happens in other developing world megacities, and future studies are expected in other low- and middle-income countries.

A new resource for developing and strengthening large-scale community health worker programs.

PubMed

Perry, Henry; Crigler, Lauren; Lewin, Simon; Glenton, Claire; LeBan, Karen; Hodgins, Steve

2017-01-12

Large-scale community health worker programs are now growing in importance around the world in response to the resurgence of interest and growing evidence of the importance of community-based primary health care for improving the health of populations in resource-constrained, high-mortality settings. These programs, because of their scale and operational challenges, merit special consideration by the global health community, national policy-makers, and program implementers. A new online resource is now available to assist in that effort: Developing and Strengthening Community Health Worker Programs at Scale: A Reference Guide and Case Studies for Program Managers and Policymakers ( http://www.mchip.net/CHWReferenceGuide ). This CHW Reference Guide is the product of 27 different collaborators who, collectively, have a formidable breadth and depth of experience and knowledge about CHW programming around the world. It provides a thoughtful discussion about the many operational issues that large-scale CHW programs need to address as they undergo the process of development, expansion or strengthening. Detailed case studies of 12 national CHW programs are included in the Appendix-the most current and complete cases studies as a group that are currently available. Future articles in this journal will highlight many of the themes in the CHW Reference Guide and provide an update of recent advances and experiences. These articles will serve, we hope, to (1) increase awareness about the CHW Reference Guide and its usefulness and (2) connect a broader audience to the critical importance of strengthening large-scale CHW programs for the health benefits that they can bring to underserved populations around the world.

Malnourishment and length of hospital stay among paediatric cancer patients with febrile neutropaenia: a developing country perspective.

PubMed

Conner, J Michael; Aviles-Robles, Martha J; Asdahl, Peter H; Zhang, Fang Fang; Ojha, Rohit P

2016-09-01

The prevalence of malnourishment among paediatric cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy in developing countries is poorly documented despite greater potential for malnourishment in such settings. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of malnourishment among paediatric cancer patients in Mexico City, and assess the association between malnourishment and length of hospital stay. Individuals eligible for this study were paediatric cancer patients (aged <18 years) admitted to Hospital Infantil de Mexico Federico Gomez (Mexico City) with febrile neutropaenia. Our exposure of interest, malnourishment, was defined as an age-adjusted and sex-adjusted z-score<-2 (ie, 2 SDs below the expected mean of the WHO reference population). We estimated time ratios (TRs) and 95% confidence limits (CLs) for the association between malnourishment and length of hospital stay. Our study population comprised 111 paediatric cancer patients with febrile neutropaenia, of whom 71% were aged <10 years and 52% were males. The prevalence of malnourishment was 14%, equal to a 530% (standardised morbidity ratio=6.3; 95% CL 3.7, 10) excess of malnourishment compared with the world reference population. The median length of hospital stay for malnourished patients was 15 days, which corresponded with a 50% (TR=1.5, 95% CL 1.0, 2.3) relative increase in length of stay compared with patients who were not malnourished. Patients with body mass indices equal to the mean of the world reference population had the shortest length of stay. Future studies should explore potential interventions for malnourishment to reduce the length of hospital stay or other established adverse consequences of malnourishment. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Disability and Health

MedlinePlus

... Over a billion people, about 15% of the world's population, have some form of disability. Between 110 million ... disability. This corresponds to about 15% of the world's population. Between 110 million (2.2%) and 190 million ( ...

Population pressures in Latin America. [Updated reprint].

PubMed

Merrick, T W

1991-04-01

This publication examines the main demographic changes in Latin America since World War II, and considers their social and economic impact on the region. The paper looks at the following demographic trends: population growth, fertility, death rate, internal migration, international migration, and age structure. It also examines other factors such as marriage and family structure, and employment and education. Furthermore, the publication provides a discussion of the relationship between population growth and economic development from both a neo-Malthusian and Structuralist view. Finally, the paper considers the region's current population policies and future population prospects. From 1950-65, annual population growth averaged 2.8%, which decreased moderately to 2.4% from 1965-85. The report identified 3 population growth patterns in the region: 1) countries which experienced early and gradual declines in birth and death rates and generally lower population growth rates (the group includes Argentina, Cuba, Uruguay, with Chile and Panama also closely fitting the description); 2) countries which underwent rapid declines in birth rate during the 1950s and which began experiencing declines in the birth rate after 1960 (Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Paraguay, and Venezuela, with Ecuador and Peru as borderline cases); and 3) countries which didn't begin to experience declines in mortality rates until relatively late and which lag behind in fertility declines (Bolivia, Haiti, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua). Although population growth has slowed and will continue to fall, UN projections do not expect the population to stabilize until late in the 21st Century.

Smoke-free air policies: past, present and future.

PubMed

Hyland, Andrew; Barnoya, Joaquin; Corral, Juan E

2012-03-01

Smoke-free policies have been an important tobacco control intervention. As recently as 20 years ago, few communities required workplaces and hospitality venues to be smoke-free, but today approximately 11% of the world's population live in countries with laws that require these places to be smoke-free. This paper briefly summarises important milestones in the history of indoor smoke-free policies, the role of scientific research in facilitating their adoption, a framework for smoke-free policy evaluation and industry efforts to undermine regulations. At present, smoke-free policies centre on workplaces, restaurants and pubs. In addition, many jurisdictions are now beginning to implement policies in outdoor areas and in shared multiunit housing settings. The future of smoke-free policy development depends on credible scientific data that documents the health risks of secondhand smoke exposure. Over the next 20 years smoke-free policies will very likely extend to outdoor and private areas, and changes in the types of tobacco products that are consumed may also have implications for the nature and scope of the smoke-free policies of the future.

Food and Population: A Global Concern [and] The Paradoxes of World Hunger.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphy, Elaine M.

1984-01-01

Student and teacher materials are provided for a secondary unit on world hunger. The student materials are contained in a module entitled "Food and Population: A Global Concern," distributed with the newsletter "Interchange." The teacher materials are contained in the issue of the newsletter itself, subtitled "The Paradoxes of World Hunger." A…

Teaching about a Growing World with a Good Book and a Geographic Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hinde, Elizabeth R.

2012-01-01

Despite wars, natural disasters, fears of epidemics and pandemics, and other catastrophic events that are vividly featured in media outlets, the world's population continues to rise. In fact, the world recently passed another demographic milestone: a human population of 7 billion people. The number of people on Earth has tripled since around 1930,…

A critical look at descriptive epidemiology of sexual dysfunction in Asia compared to the rest of the world - a call for evidence-based data

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Recently evidence-based medicine has been applied to comparative epidemiological papers regarding sexual dysfunction that have appeared in the literature. This review is intended to focus the readers on a validated and standardized methodological evidence-based process for preparing such articles. It reviews four key articles that have been published in the English language that have obtained a high evidence-based score for reliability that have included descriptive epidemiology of sexual dysfunctions in men and women in Asia compared to the rest of the world. These four papers are analyzed in detail in order to provide stress of what constitutes evidence-based studies in descriptive epidemiology for sexual function. As can be seen there has not yet been a perfect article that compares the prevalence of sexual function in Asia compared to the rest of the world since there are key methodological problems in the collection of the data. In addition, there is a paucity of incidence studies for sexual dysfunction in Asian populations. The readers are encouraged to use this data in preparation of future descriptive epidemiological studies that involve Asian countries. PMID:26816724

A critical look at descriptive epidemiology of sexual dysfunction in Asia compared to the rest of the world - a call for evidence-based data.

PubMed

Lewis, Ronald W

2013-03-01

Recently evidence-based medicine has been applied to comparative epidemiological papers regarding sexual dysfunction that have appeared in the literature. This review is intended to focus the readers on a validated and standardized methodological evidence-based process for preparing such articles. It reviews four key articles that have been published in the English language that have obtained a high evidence-based score for reliability that have included descriptive epidemiology of sexual dysfunctions in men and women in Asia compared to the rest of the world. These four papers are analyzed in detail in order to provide stress of what constitutes evidence-based studies in descriptive epidemiology for sexual function. As can be seen there has not yet been a perfect article that compares the prevalence of sexual function in Asia compared to the rest of the world since there are key methodological problems in the collection of the data. In addition, there is a paucity of incidence studies for sexual dysfunction in Asian populations. The readers are encouraged to use this data in preparation of future descriptive epidemiological studies that involve Asian countries.

Village Power '98

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cardinal, Julie; Flowers, Larry; Siegel, Judy

This is the fifth Village Power workshop sponsored by NREL. We have held these meetings every year since 1993, to focus, challenge, and provide a forum for interaction among practitioners working in the field of using renewable energy technologies as an economically viable pathway to electrification of rural populations throughout the world. Starting with a small group of 30 colleagues in 1993, this ''workshop'' has doubled in size every year. When the NREL staff was planning for this meeting, they were hoping for something around 400 participants. We are now looking at over 500, and we apologize for the somewhatmore » cramped accommodations. This overwhelming response, however, shows that the use of renewable energy to solve some of the world's serious problems is coming of age. This meeting, this ''conference'' (it's clearly no longer a workshop) marks a transition. A transition from the viewpoint that renewables are, and forever will be a technology of the future; to the reality that renewables have come of age. We have technologies available today, at today's prices, that can make a substantive contribution to the pressing needs of environmentally sustainable development in the world. This is a collection of all the papers presented at the Village Power '98 conference.« less

Analysis of human resources for oral health globally: inequitable distribution.

PubMed

Gallagher, Jennifer E; Hutchinson, Lynn

2018-06-01

Oral diseases affect most of the global population. The aim of this paper was to provide a contemporary analysis of 'human resources for oral health' (HROH) by examining the size and distribution of the dental workforce according to World Health Organization (WHO) region and in the most populous countries. Publically available data on HROH and population size were sourced from the WHO, Central Intelligence Agency, United Nations, World Bank and the UK registration body. Population-to-dentist and dental-workforce ratios were calculated according to WHO region and for the 25 most populous countries globally. Workforce trends over time were examined for one high-income country, the UK. The majority of the world's 1.6 million dentists are based in Europe and the Americas, such that 69% of the world's dentists serve 27% of the global population. Africa has only 1% of the global workforce and thus there are marked inequalities in access to dental personnel, as demonstrated by population to dental-workforce ratios. Gaps exist in dental-workforce data, most notably relating to mid-level clinical providers, such as dental hygienists and therapists, and HROH data are not regularly updated. Workforce expansion and migration may result in rapid changes in dentist numbers. Marked inequalities in the distribution of global HROH exist between regions and countries, with inequalities most apparent in areas of high population growth. Detailed contemporary data on all groups of HROH are required to inform global workforce reform in support of addressing population oral health needs. © 2018 FDI World Dental Federation.

Understanding the Long Run Determinants of Land Use in Global Crop Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldos, U. C.; Hertel, T. W.

2011-12-01

Cropland cover is expected to increase in the future given the projected growth on global demand for crops. Over the past century, crop demand has largely been driven by food demands, which were, in turn driven by a combination of rising population growth and increased per capita incomes, with the former dominating. However, with population growth slowing, and incomes rising more strongly in the developing world - where dietary upgrading is a significant factor - income growth has emerged as a relatively more significant driver of total food demand. At the same time, renewable energy policies across the world have introduced a new, dynamic element to the industrial demand for cropland. However, the drivers of long run cropland use are not limited to those directly related to crop demand. New trends suggest that crop yield growth may be slowing in critical breadbaskets around the world. In addition, some agricultural lands have been lost to urbanization and soil degradation. There is also a growing interest in setting aside land for biodiversity. Finally, there is considerable interest in terrestrial carbon sequestration which could place important new demands on the world's croplands. The co-existence of so many competing factors poses a challenge for properly assessing the long-run global supply and demand for croplands in 2050. In this paper, we quantify the contributions of each of these key drivers to the long-run global cropland use using a partial equilibrium model of global agriculture. To implement the model, we also construct a global database for key land use, agricultural and socio-economic variables from several sources. Our analysis starts with validation of the model over an historical period from 2001 up to 2007-05 (5 years). The model's prediction regarding cropland use is slightly lower than the observed change (+5.8% vs. +8.3%). Decomposition of the drivers of land use change shows that income growth (+3.9%) has a larger impact than population growth (+1.6%), biofuels (+0.2%) and urbanization (-0.3%). Technological change in crop, livestock and processed food production also have a modest impact on global cropland use over this historical period (+0.8%, -0.3% and +0.1%, respectively). We then turn our attention to projections of global land use over the coming decade. Here we project continued expansion in global cropland (13.7%). We then decompose the drivers of this projected change in land use. For example, if population grows at projected rates and yields grow at recent historical rates, then projected cropland use rises by just 1.7%. If we add urbanization, then global cropland use is slightly reduced (+1.5%). Because of the magnitude of the projected production targets, adding biofuels boosts global cropland use strongly (+4.2%) when added to the preceding factors. Adding technological change in the livestock and food processing sectors, as well as growth in per capita incomes boosts projected cropland use to 13.7%. In short, income growth is likely to be the critical driver of global cropland change in the future.

Water law as an adaptation strategy for global water scarcity in the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kakinuma, K.; Yoshikawa, S.; Endo, T.; Kanae, S.

2014-12-01

Water scarcity due to climate changes and growing human population is a major concern for the world. Adaptation and mitigation strategies should be developed for water scarcity in the future. Previous studies assessed the future water availability by hard technology (e.g., reservoirs, reclaimed and desalinated water plants) as adaptation strategies. On the other hand, soft path such as water law and policy would also be important for adaptation strategies. Water transfers is reallocation of water among water users. For example, distribution of the amount of available water is often heterogeneous especially during drought periods. If water transfers are permitted in these areas, water can be moved from surplus areas/sections to critical need areas/sections. There are several studies which describe the water transfer at the local scales (i.e., water bank in California), however the factors that determined the establishment of water transfer are not clear. If we can detect the factors, it could be used to estimate in which areas the water transfer would come into existence. This in turn would reduce the water stress. Here, we focus on historical interaction between human activity and water environments. Generally, rules of water use are developed by repeated discussion among water users. The frequency of these discussions would be related with their land use, frequency of drought and water resource sizes. For example, people in rice crop area need to discuss about water allocation compared to wheat crop area. Therefore, we examine the relationship between the permission of water transfer and factors such as water environment and human activity in the world.

Integrating Plant Science and Crop Modeling: Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Soybean and Maize Production.

PubMed

Fodor, Nándor; Challinor, Andrew; Droutsas, Ioannis; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Zabel, Florian; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Foyer, Christine H

2017-11-01

Increasing global CO2 emissions have profound consequences for plant biology, not least because of direct influences on carbon gain. However, much remains uncertain regarding how our major crops will respond to a future high CO2 world. Crop model inter-comparison studies have identified large uncertainties and biases associated with climate change. The need to quantify uncertainty has drawn the fields of plant molecular physiology, crop breeding and biology, and climate change modeling closer together. Comparing data from different models that have been used to assess the potential climate change impacts on soybean and maize production, future yield losses have been predicted for both major crops. When CO2 fertilization effects are taken into account significant yield gains are predicted for soybean, together with a shift in global production from the Southern to the Northern hemisphere. Maize production is also forecast to shift northwards. However, unless plant breeders are able to produce new hybrids with improved traits, the forecasted yield losses for maize will only be mitigated by agro-management adaptations. In addition, the increasing demands of a growing world population will require larger areas of marginal land to be used for maize and soybean production. We summarize the outputs of crop models, together with mitigation options for decreasing the negative impacts of climate on the global maize and soybean production, providing an overview of projected land-use change as a major determining factor for future global crop production. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Japanese Society of Plant Physiologists.

World Population Stabilization Unlikely This Century

PubMed Central

Gerland, Patrick; Raftery, Adrian E.; Ševcíková, Hana; Li, Nan; Gu, Danan; Spoorenberg, Thomas; Alkema, Leontine; Fosdick, Bailey K.; Chunn, Jennifer; Lalic, Nevena; Bay, Guiomar; Buettner, Thomas; Heilig, Gerhard K.; Wilmoth, John

2014-01-01

The United Nations recently released population projections based on data until 2012 and a Bayesian probabilistic methodology. Analysis of these data reveals that, contrary to previous literature, world population is unlikely to stop growing this century. There is an 80% probability that world population, now 7.2 billion, will increase to between 9.6 and 12.3 billion in 2100. This uncertainty is much smaller than the range from the traditional UN high and low variants. Much of the increase is expected to happen in Africa, in part due to higher fertility and a recent slowdown in the pace of fertility decline. Also, the ratio of working age people to older people is likely to decline substantially in all countries, even those that currently have young populations. PMID:25301627

Ageing in India--an overview.

PubMed

Kumar, V

1997-10-01

Accelerated population ageing experienced in the last few decades is an unprecedented phenomenon. Currently, this is more in the developing countries. Soon three-fourths of the elderly will be in the developing world. From 1990 to 2025, the elderly population in Asia will rise from 50 per cent of the world's elderly to 58 per cent, in Africa and Latin America from 5 to 7 per cent, but in Europe the figure will drop from 19 to 12 per cent of the world's elderly. The life span has increased in India from 32 yr in 1947 to more than 62 yr now. From the morbidity point of view, almost 50 per cent of the Indian elderly have chronic diseases and 5 per cent suffer from immobility. There are several vulnerable groups and a big disadvantaged lot are elderly females who are one of the fastest growing segments, which will increase to become 4 times the current figure, by 2025. In spite of professional disinterest in the speciality, recent trends indicate the beginning of sensitization of medical teachers, advancing speciality of psychosocial gerontology and availability of some research funds. Importance of training of health professionals and priorities in gerontological research are also under consideration. Infections still take a heavy toll of our elderly population apart from well known degenerative disorders. Limitations of a developing country further influence the morbidity pattern in various ways. Nutritional deficiencies are common and often subclinical thus escaping the desired interventions. Coronary heart disease, hypertension, mental and many other disorders in the elderly have been reported as isolated observations highlighting differences from those made in the Western countries. Socio-economically, the traditional support of extended families is rapidly undergoing erosion making the elderly further vulnerable. This causes more emotional and psychological problems while the State finds itself helpless in providing a comprehensive care to its large chunk of elderly population. It will be important to surmise and predetermine the future factors that are going to modify the diverse patterns of morbidity, disability and mortality in regional context.

The Victor-Bostrom Fund Report: Food and Population. Report No. 19, Summer-Fall 1974.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Victor-Bostrom Fund Committee, Washington, DC.

Eleven articles comprise this document which presents commentaries on nutrition, population, and environmental education. The articles deal specifically with the crises of a rapidly growing world population, a worsening world food situation, and an energy crisis. A number of specific recommendations, both national and international, are offered to…

The Diverse World of Early Childhood. Global Status Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neugebauer, Roger

2002-01-01

Examines demographic information about the status of young children around the world. Graphs nations with the largest populations of young children and highest percentage of their populations composed of young children in comparison to the aged, the percentage of regional populations under age 5 and over 64, and birth and infant mortality rates.…

World Population Ageing, 1950-2050.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations, New York, NY. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs.

Population aging was one of the most distinctive events of the 20th century and will remain important throughout the 21st century. Initially, a phenomenon of more developed countries, the process has recently become apparent in much of the developing world as well. The shift in age structure associated with population aging has a profound impact…

World Food Resources and Population: The Narrowing Margin.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Lester R.

1981-01-01

This bulletin examines the narrowing margin between global food production and population growth. Between 1950 and 1971, world grain production nearly doubled and per capita production increased 31 percent. During the 1970s, gains in output barely kept pace with population growth, consumption per person declined in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of…

Population Change, Resources, and the Environment. Population Trends and Public Policy No. 4.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jacobsen, Judith, Ed.

Intended for policymakers, this document focuses on environmental factors limiting the expansion of the world's food supply, the dilemma of fostering third world economic development, and prospects for energy development. The first of five parts gives an overview of a 1983 Population Reference Bureau conference which focused on current thinking…

Sustainability and Water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Virender A.

2009-07-01

World's population numbered 6.1 billion in 2000 and is currently increasing at a rate of about 77 million per year. By 2025, the estimated total world population will be of the order of 7.9 billion. Water plays a central role in any systematic appraisal of life sustaining requirements. Water also strongly influences economic activity (both production and consumption) and social roles. Fresh water is distributed unevenly, with nearly 500 million people suffering water stress or serious water scarcity. Two-thirds of the world's population may be subjected to moderate to high water stress in 2025. It is estimated that by 2025, the total water use will increase by to 40%. The resources of water supply and recreation may also come under stress due to changes in climate such as water balance for Lake Balaton (Hungary). Conventional urban water systems such as water supply, wastewater, and storm water management are also currently going through stress and require major rethinking. To maintain urban water systems efficiently in the future, a flexibility approach will allow incorporation of new technologies and adaptation to external changes (for example society or climate change). Because water is an essential resource for sustaining health, both the quantity and quality of available water supplies must be improved. The impact of water quality on human health is severe, with millions of deaths each year from water-borne diseases, while water pollution and aquatic ecosystem destruction continue to rise. Additionally, emerging contaminants such as endocrine disruptor chemicals (EDCs), pharmaceuticals, and toxins in the water body are also of a great concern. An innovative ferrate(VI) technology is highly effective in removing these contaminants in water. This technology is green, which addresses problems associated with chlorination and ozonation for treating pollutants present in water and wastewater. Examples are presented to demonstrate the applications of ferrate(VI) technology to meet the demand of water in this century.

Two Different Views on the World Around Us: The World of Uniformity versus Diversity.

PubMed

Kwon, JaeHwan; Nayakankuppam, Dhananjay

2016-01-01

We propose that when individuals believe in fixed traits of personality (entity theorists), they are likely to expect a world of "uniformity." As such, they easily infer a population statistic from a small sample of data with confidence. In contrast, individuals who believe in malleable traits of personality (incremental theorists) are likely to presume a world of "diversity," such that they "hesitate" to infer a population statistic from a similarly sized sample. In four laboratory experiments, we found that compared to incremental theorists, entity theorists estimated a population mean from a sample with a greater level of confidence (Studies 1a and 1b), expected more homogeneity among the entities within a population (Study 2), and perceived an extreme value to be more indicative of an outlier (Study 3). These results suggest that individuals are likely to use their implicit self-theory orientations (entity theory versus incremental theory) to see a population in general as a constitution either of homogeneous or heterogeneous entities.

Year 2000--A Global Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blai, Boris, Jr.

By 2000 A.D. there is a great potential for progressive impoverishment of world resources and degradation of the global environment. This adaptation of the report "Global Future: Time to Act", summarizes a reconnaisance of the future as it might be if no preventative measures are taken. As the world becomes more crowded, polluted, vulnerable to…

Beyond 2020: Envisioning the Future of Universities in America

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Darden, Mary Landon

2009-01-01

In a world progressing with dizzying acceleration into the Information Age, the slow, measured approach of the traditional university can place administrator, faculty member, and student alike at a disadvantage. To move into this brave new world, the academic animal needs tools. "Beyond 2020: Envisioning the Future of Universities in America" is…

How GNSS Enables Precision Farming

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-12-01

Precision farming: Feeding a Growing Population Enables Those Who Feed the World. Immediate and Ongoing Needs - population growth (more to feed) - urbanization (decrease in arable land) Double food production by 2050 to meet world demand. To meet thi...

How scientists use social media to communicate their research.

PubMed

Van Eperen, Laura; Marincola, Francesco M

2011-11-15

Millions of people all over the world are constantly sharing an extremely wide range of fascinating, quirky, funny, irrelevant and important content all at once. Even scientists are no strangers to this trend. Social media has enabled them to communicate their research quickly and efficiently throughout each corner of the world. But which social media platforms are they using to communicate this research and how are they using them? One thing is clear: the range of social media platforms that scientists are using is relatively vast and dependent on discipline and sentiment. While the future of social media is unknown, a combination of educated speculation and persuasive fact points to the industry's continual growth and influence. Thus, is that not only are scientists utilizing social media to communicate their research, they must. The ability to communicate to the masses via social media is critical to the distribution of scientific information amongst professionals in the field and to the general population.

Obesity pharmacotherapy: What is next?

PubMed Central

Colon-Gonzalez, Francheska; Kim, Gilbert W.; Lin, Jieru E.; Valentino, Michael A.; Waldman, Scott A.

2014-01-01

The increase in obesity in the Unites States and around the world in the last decade is overwhelming. The number of overweight adults in the world surpassed 1 billion in 2008. Health hazards associated with obesity are serious and include heart disease, sleep apnea, diabetes, and cancer. Although lifestyle modifications are the most straightforward way to control weight, a large portion of the population may not be able to rely on this modality alone. Thus, the development of anti-obesity therapeutics represents a major unmet medical need. Historically, anti-obesity pharmacotherapies have been unsafe and minimally efficacious. A better understanding of the biology of appetite and metabolism provides an opportunity to develop drugs that may offer safer and more effective alternatives for weight management. This review discusses drugs that are currently on the market and in development as anti-obesity therapeutics based on their target and mechanism of action. It should serve as a roadmap to establish expectations for the near future for anti-obesity drug development. PMID:23103610

How scientists use social media to communicate their research

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Millions of people all over the world are constantly sharing an extremely wide range of fascinating, quirky, funny, irrelevant and important content all at once. Even scientists are no strangers to this trend. Social media has enabled them to communicate their research quickly and efficiently throughout each corner of the world. But which social media platforms are they using to communicate this research and how are they using them? One thing is clear: the range of social media platforms that scientists are using is relatively vast and dependent on discipline and sentiment. While the future of social media is unknown, a combination of educated speculation and persuasive fact points to the industry's continual growth and influence. Thus, is that not only are scientists utilizing social media to communicate their research, they must. The ability to communicate to the masses via social media is critical to the distribution of scientific information amongst professionals in the field and to the general population. PMID:22085450

The effect of war on children: the children of Europe after World War II.

PubMed

Shields, L; Bryan, B

2002-06-01

In war, children are inevitably innocent victims. In the carnage that was World War II, more children were killed or orphaned than at any other time in history. This article gives a brief history of the place of children within the conflagration, then describes the effects of war on the children. We concentrate on postwar life, placing children in the context of the environment in which they were living at the time. Our article outlines the work carried out by relief agencies and how Europe began to rebuild itself, how the children were fed and made healthy, and how, where possible, they were reunited with their families. We report briefly on the physical and psychological damage children suffered, both during the war and in its aftermath. History such as this is relevant to nurses in the 21st century, as it provides insight upon which nursing care for both our present ageing population and for children of the future can be based.

[Smallpox--in the past or not?].

PubMed

Kuljić-Kapulica, Nada

2004-01-01

Smallpox is a potentially deadly illness caused by the variola virus, an orthopoxvirus. Severe illness followed by blister-like body rash is the sign of smallpox. Smallpox symptoms develop about 12 days after exposure. V. variole can spread very readily by aerosol, which may lead to explosive epidemics. For centuries, smallpox has been a worldwide cause of death, killing about 30% of the infected people. In 1972, the epidemic of smallpox in ex-Yugoslavia was the largest postwar smallpox epidemic in Europe. The total number of the affected was 175, out of whom 35 with fatal outcome, accounting for 20% of mortality. However, after a decade-long vaccination effort, the last natural case of smallpox occurred in 1977. The only way to prevent smallpox epidemic is by vaccination and patients' isolation. The possibility of future bioterrorism attacks, which may cause a new outbreak of smallpox and return variola, is very serious. World population is not immune, because of lack of vaccination. In 1980, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the disease fully eradicated.

Predictors of Homonegativity in the United States and the Netherlands Using the Fifth Wave of the World Values Survey.

PubMed

Haney, Jolynn L

2016-10-01

Using data from the fifth wave of the World Values Survey (WVS), I investigated negative attitude toward homosexual individuals in two countries-the United States and the Netherlands-to determine how factors associated with homonegativity in the United States compare with factors associated with homonegativity in the Netherlands. Logistic regression of survey responses from 2,299 participants from the United States (n = 1,249) and the Netherlands (n = 1,050) supported findings from previous research suggesting that homonegativity is more likely to occur in the United States than in the Netherlands, and that negative attitudes toward persons with AIDS and immigrants predicted homonegativity in both countries. Predictors of homonegativity in the United States included being male and being unemployed; in the Netherlands, being unhappy predicted homonegativity. How these findings inform social work policy and practice related to the lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) population, as well as suggestions for future research, are discussed.

World Bank Atlas: Population, Per Capita Product and Growth Rates.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

World Bank, Washington, DC.

The ninth edition of the World Bank Atlas shows estimates of population, gross national product, and per capita production of 189 countries and territories for 1972. The data presented in the atlas are the result of the work of the World Bank Group whose major purpose is to provide both financial and technical assistance and to improve the living…

The Problems of Human Settlements. Draper World Population Fund Report, No. 2, Spring 1976.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Piotrow, Phyllis T., Ed.

This report contains ten papers dealing with population growth that focus attention on the quality of life in human settlements and the values and practical policies to be sought. Some of the papers were prepared for the Habitat Conference convened in Vancouver by world governments in June 1976. The first paper discusses world action plans for…

Trends in Global Gender Inequality (Forthcoming, Social Forces).

PubMed

Dorius, Shawn F; Firebaugh, Glenn

2010-07-01

This study investigates trends in gender inequality for the world as a whole. Using data encompassing a large majority of the world's population, we examine world trends over recent decades for key indicators of gender inequality in education, mortality, political representation, and economic activity. We find that gender inequality is declining in virtually all major domains, that the decline is occurring across diverse religious and cultural traditions, and that population growth is slowing the decline because populations are growing faster in countries where there is the greatest gender inequality.