Crystal nucleation of colloidal hard dumbbells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ni, Ran; Dijkstra, Marjolein

2011-01-01

Using computer simulations, we investigate the homogeneous crystal nucleation in suspensions of colloidal hard dumbbells. The free energy barriers are determined by Monte Carlo simulations using the umbrella sampling technique. We calculate the nucleation rates for the plastic crystal and the aperiodic crystal phase using the kinetic prefactor as determined from event driven molecular dynamics simulations. We find good agreement with the nucleation rates determined from spontaneous nucleation events observed in event driven molecular dynamics simulations within error bars of one order of magnitude. We study the effect of aspect ratio of the dumbbells on the nucleation of plastic and aperiodic crystal phases, and we also determine the structure of the critical nuclei. Moreover, we find that the nucleation of the aligned close-packed crystal structure is strongly suppressed by a high free energy barrier at low supersaturations and slow dynamics at high supersaturations.

Mass imbalances in EPANET water-quality simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davis, Michael J.; Janke, Robert; Taxon, Thomas N.

EPANET is widely employed to simulate water quality in water distribution systems. However, the time-driven simulation approach used to determine concentrations of water-quality constituents provides accurate results, in general, only for small water-quality time steps; use of an adequately short time step may not be feasible. Overly long time steps can yield errors in concentrations and result in situations in which constituent mass is not conserved. Mass may not be conserved even when EPANET gives no errors or warnings. This paper explains how such imbalances can occur and provides examples of such cases; it also presents a preliminary event-driven approachmore » that conserves mass with a water-quality time step that is as long as the hydraulic time step. Results obtained using the current approach converge, or tend to converge, to those obtained using the new approach as the water-quality time step decreases. Improving the water-quality routing algorithm used in EPANET could eliminate mass imbalances and related errors in estimated concentrations.« less

A model of nitrous oxide evolution from soil driven by rainfall events. I - Model structure and sensitivity. II - Model applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Changsheng, LI; Frolking, Steve; Frolking, Tod A.

1992-01-01

Simulations of N2O and CO2 emissions from soils were conducted with a rain-event driven, process-oriented model (DNDC) of nitrogen and carbon cycling processes in soils. The magnitude and trends of simulated N2O (or N2O + N2) and CO2 emissions were consistent with the results obtained in field experiments. The successful simulation of these emissions from the range of soil types examined demonstrates that the DNDC will be a useful tool for the study of linkages among climate, soil-atmosphere interactions, land use, and trace gas fluxes.

The three-dimensional Event-Driven Graphics Environment (3D-EDGE)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freedman, Jeffrey; Hahn, Roger; Schwartz, David M.

1993-01-01

Stanford Telecom developed the Three-Dimensional Event-Driven Graphics Environment (3D-EDGE) for NASA GSFC's (GSFC) Communications Link Analysis and Simulation System (CLASS). 3D-EDGE consists of a library of object-oriented subroutines which allow engineers with little or no computer graphics experience to programmatically manipulate, render, animate, and access complex three-dimensional objects.

Network-based simulation of aircraft at gates in airport terminals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cheng, Y.

1998-03-01

Simulation is becoming an essential tool for planning, design, and management of airport facilities. A simulation of aircraft at gates at an airport can be applied for various periodically performed applications, relating to the dynamic behavior of aircraft at gates in airport terminals for analyses, evaluations, and decision supports. Conventionally, such simulations are implemented using an event-driven method. For a more efficient simulation, this paper proposes a network-based method. The basic idea is to transform all the sequence constraint relations of aircraft at gates into a network. The simulation is done by calculating the longest path to all the nodesmore » in the network. The effect of the algorithm of the proposed method has been examined by experiments, and the superiority of the proposed method over the event-driven method is revealed through comprehensive comparisons of their overall simulation performance.« less

Algorithms and architecture for multiprocessor based circuit simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deutsch, J.T.

Accurate electrical simulation is critical to the design of high performance integrated circuits. Logic simulators can verify function and give first-order timing information. Switch level simulators are more effective at dealing with charge sharing than standard logic simulators, but cannot provide accurate timing information or discover DC problems. Delay estimation techniques and cell level simulation can be used in constrained design methods, but must be tuned for each application, and circuit simulation must still be used to generate the cell models. None of these methods has the guaranteed accuracy that many circuit designers desire, and none can provide detailed waveformmore » information. Detailed electrical-level simulation can predict circuit performance if devices and parasitics are modeled accurately. However, the computational requirements of conventional circuit simulators make it impractical to simulate current large circuits. In this dissertation, the implementation of Iterated Timing Analysis (ITA), a relaxation-based technique for accurate circuit simulation, on a special-purpose multiprocessor is presented. The ITA method is an SOR-Newton, relaxation-based method which uses event-driven analysis and selective trace to exploit the temporal sparsity of the electrical network. Because event-driven selective trace techniques are employed, this algorithm lends itself to implementation on a data-driven computer.« less

On the Role of Ionospheric Ions in Sawtooth Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lund, E. J.; Nowrouzi, N.; Kistler, L. M.; Cai, X.; Frey, H. U.

2016-12-01

Global multifluid simulations have suggested that ions of ionospheric origin play a key role in driving sawtooth events, particularly events driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), through a feedback mechanism.1,2 The energy input from the first substorm causes ion outflow, which is claimed to drive the next substorm. We show that in situ data from Cluster in the tail during sawtooth events do not support this hypothesis. We show two detailed event studies, one driven by a CME and one driven by a streaming interaction region (SIR), as well as a statistical survey of all sawtooth events for which Cluster tail data are available. While examples exist of nightside outflow reaching the mid-tail ( 19 RE) region during CME-driven events, the overwhelming majority of both CME-driven and SIR-driven sawtooth injections have ionospheric ions in this region originating from the cusp, where the outflow is predominantly directly driven by the solar wind. The 19 RE region is critical because that is the region where near-Earth neutral line reconnection occurs. We conclude that while ionospheric outflow may contribute to sawtooth events, the injections are not the result of a feedback between the tail and the ionosphere. 1O. J. Brambles et al. (2011), Science 332, 1183, doi:10.1126/science.1202869.2O. J. Brambles et al. (2013), JGR 118, 6026, doi:10.1002/jgra.50522.

Hybrid Architectural Framework for C4ISR and Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) to Support Sensor-Driven Model Synthesis in Real-World Scenarios

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

which utilizes FTA and then loads it into a DES engine to generate simulation results. .......44 Figure 21. This simulation architecture is...While Discrete Event Simulation ( DES ) can provide accurate time estimation and fast simulation speed, models utilizing it often suffer...C4ISR progress in MDW is developed in this research to demonstrate the feasibility of AEMF- DES and explore its potential. The simulation (MDSIM

Probing the Magnetic Field Structure in Sgr A* on Black Hole Horizon Scales with Polarized Radiative Transfer Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gold, Roman; McKinney, Jonathan C.; Johnson, Michael D.; Doeleman, Sheperd S.

2017-03-01

Magnetic fields are believed to drive accretion and relativistic jets in black hole accretion systems, but the magnetic field structure that controls these phenomena remains uncertain. We perform general relativistic (GR) polarized radiative transfer of time-dependent three-dimensional GR magnetohydrodynamical simulations to model thermal synchrotron emission from the Galactic Center source Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*). We compare our results to new polarimetry measurements by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) and show how polarization in the visibility (Fourier) domain distinguishes and constrains accretion flow models with different magnetic field structures. These include models with small-scale fields in disks driven by the magnetorotational instability as well as models with large-scale ordered fields in magnetically arrested disks. We also consider different electron temperature and jet mass-loading prescriptions that control the brightness of the disk, funnel-wall jet, and Blandford-Znajek-driven funnel jet. Our comparisons between the simulations and observations favor models with ordered magnetic fields near the black hole event horizon in Sgr A*, though both disk- and jet-dominated emission can satisfactorily explain most of the current EHT data. We also discuss how the black hole shadow can be filled-in by jet emission or mimicked by the absence of funnel jet emission. We show that stronger model constraints should be possible with upcoming circular polarization and higher frequency (349 GHz) measurements.

Event management for large scale event-driven digital hardware spiking neural networks.

PubMed

Caron, Louis-Charles; D'Haene, Michiel; Mailhot, Frédéric; Schrauwen, Benjamin; Rouat, Jean

2013-09-01

The interest in brain-like computation has led to the design of a plethora of innovative neuromorphic systems. Individually, spiking neural networks (SNNs), event-driven simulation and digital hardware neuromorphic systems get a lot of attention. Despite the popularity of event-driven SNNs in software, very few digital hardware architectures are found. This is because existing hardware solutions for event management scale badly with the number of events. This paper introduces the structured heap queue, a pipelined digital hardware data structure, and demonstrates its suitability for event management. The structured heap queue scales gracefully with the number of events, allowing the efficient implementation of large scale digital hardware event-driven SNNs. The scaling is linear for memory, logarithmic for logic resources and constant for processing time. The use of the structured heap queue is demonstrated on a field-programmable gate array (FPGA) with an image segmentation experiment and a SNN of 65,536 neurons and 513,184 synapses. Events can be processed at the rate of 1 every 7 clock cycles and a 406×158 pixel image is segmented in 200 ms. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sawtooth events and O+ in the plasma sheet and boundary layer: CME- and SIR-driven events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lund, E. J.; Nowrouzi, N.; Kistler, L. M.; Cai, X.; Liao, J.

2017-12-01

The role of ionospheric ions in sawtooth events is an open question. Simulations[1,2,3] suggest that O+ from the ionosphere produces a feedback mechanism for driving sawtooth events. However, observational evidence[4,5] suggest that the presence of O+ in the plasma sheet is neither necessary nor sufficient. In this study we investigate whether the solar wind driver of the geomagnetic storm has an effect on the result. Building on an earlier study[4] that used events for which Cluster data is available in the plasma sheet and boundary layer, we perform a superposed epoch analysis for coronal mass ejection (CME) driven storms and streaming interaction region (SIR) driven storms separately, to investigate the hypothesis that ionospheric O+ is an important contributor for CME-driven storms but not SIR-driven storms[2]. [1]O. J. Brambles et al. (2011), Science 332, 1183.[2]O. J. Brambles et al. (2013), JGR 118, 6026.[3]R. H. Varney et al. (2016), JGR 121, 9688.[4]J. Liao et al. (2014), JGR 119, 1572.[5]E. J. Lund et al. (2017), JGR, submitted.

Investigating NARCCAP Precipitation Extremes via Bivariate Extreme Value Theory (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, G. B.; Cooley, D. S.; Sain, S. R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; Mearns, L. O.

2013-12-01

We introduce methodology from statistical extreme value theory to examine the ability of reanalysis-drive regional climate models to simulate past daily precipitation extremes. Going beyond a comparison of summary statistics such as 20-year return values, we study whether the most extreme precipitation events produced by climate model simulations exhibit correspondence to the most extreme events seen in observational records. The extent of this correspondence is formulated via the statistical concept of tail dependence. We examine several case studies of extreme precipitation events simulated by the six models of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) driven by NCEP reanalysis. It is found that the NARCCAP models generally reproduce daily winter precipitation extremes along the Pacific coast quite well; in contrast, simulation of past daily summer precipitation extremes in a central US region is poor. Some differences in the strength of extremal correspondence are seen in the central region between models which employ spectral nudging and those which do not. We demonstrate how these techniques may be used to draw a link between extreme precipitation events and large-scale atmospheric drivers, as well as to downscale extreme precipitation simulated by a future run of a regional climate model. Specifically, we examine potential future changes in the nature of extreme precipitation along the Pacific coast produced by the pineapple express (PE) phenomenon. A link between extreme precipitation events and a "PE Index" derived from North Pacific sea-surface pressure fields is found. This link is used to study PE-influenced extreme precipitation produced by a future-scenario climate model run.

Interpretation of the 12 May 2012 ground level enhancement event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, C. C.; Dryer, Ph D., M.; Liou, K.; Wu, S. T.

2015-12-01

The 12 May 2012 solar event is associated with a moderate flare (M5.1) and, surprisingly, a ground level enhancement (GLE) event. It is the first GLE of the solar cycle 24 (or since December 2006). Because GLEs are considered as the highest energy tail in the solar energetic particle (SEP) spectrum, it is generally believed that GLEs must be generated at very strong shocks. Here, we conduct a simulation study of a number of major (> M5.0) flare events that occurred in the current solar cycle up to 2013, using the H3DMHD simulation code. The H3DMHD (Wu et al. 2007, JGR) combines the kinematic solar wind model (HAF) for regions near the solar surface (2.5-18 Rs) and a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamics model (Han et al. 1988), which takes output from HAF at 18 Rs and propagates outward up to 1.7 AU. The H3DMHD code has been fully tested and is suitable for simulating not only the quiet solar wind, but also disturbances propagating in the solar wind. Our preliminary study result suggests that the 12 May 2012 was magnetically well connected, whereas others were not. We will present the detailed result, including the shock structure and intensity driven by the 12 May 2012 CME event, and discuss the result implication.

Probing the Magnetic Field Structure in Sgr A* on Black Hole Horizon Scales with Polarized Radiative Transfer Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gold, Roman; McKinney, Jonathan C.; Johnson, Michael D.

Magnetic fields are believed to drive accretion and relativistic jets in black hole accretion systems, but the magnetic field structure that controls these phenomena remains uncertain. We perform general relativistic (GR) polarized radiative transfer of time-dependent three-dimensional GR magnetohydrodynamical simulations to model thermal synchrotron emission from the Galactic Center source Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*). We compare our results to new polarimetry measurements by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) and show how polarization in the visibility (Fourier) domain distinguishes and constrains accretion flow models with different magnetic field structures. These include models with small-scale fields in disks driven by the magnetorotationalmore » instability as well as models with large-scale ordered fields in magnetically arrested disks. We also consider different electron temperature and jet mass-loading prescriptions that control the brightness of the disk, funnel-wall jet, and Blandford–Znajek-driven funnel jet. Our comparisons between the simulations and observations favor models with ordered magnetic fields near the black hole event horizon in Sgr A*, though both disk- and jet-dominated emission can satisfactorily explain most of the current EHT data. We also discuss how the black hole shadow can be filled-in by jet emission or mimicked by the absence of funnel jet emission. We show that stronger model constraints should be possible with upcoming circular polarization and higher frequency (349 GHz) measurements.« less

Wind influence on a coastal buoyant outflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitney, Michael M.; Garvine, Richard W.

2005-03-01

This paper investigates the interplay between river discharge and winds in forcing coastal buoyant outflows. During light winds a plume influenced by the Earth's rotation will flow down shelf (in the direction of Kelvin wave propagation) as a slender buoyancy-driven coastal current. Downwelling favorable winds augment this down-shelf flow, narrow the plume, and mix the water column. Upwelling favorable winds drive currents that counter the buoyancy-driven flow, spread plume waters offshore, and rapidly mix buoyant waters. Two criteria are developed to assess the wind influence on a buoyant outflow. The wind strength index (Ws) determines whether a plume's along-shelf flow is in a wind-driven or buoyancy-driven state. Ws is the ratio of the wind-driven and buoyancy-driven along-shelf velocities. Wind influence on across-shelf plume structure is rated with a timescale (ttilt) for the isopycnal tilting caused by wind-driven Ekman circulation. These criteria are used to characterize wind influence on the Delaware Coastal Current and can be applied to other coastal buoyant outflows. The Delaware buoyant outflow is simulated for springtime high-river discharge conditions. Simulation results and Ws values reveal that the coastal current is buoyancy-driven most of the time (∣Ws∣ < 1 on average). Wind events, however, overwhelm the buoyancy-driven flow (∣Ws∣ > 1) several times during the high-discharge period. Strong upwelling events reverse the buoyant outflow; they constitute an important mechanism for transporting fresh water up shelf. Across-shelf plume structure is more sensitive to wind influence than the along-shelf flow. Values of ttilt indicate that moderate or strong winds persisting throughout a day can modify plume width significantly. Plume widening during upwelling events is accompanied by mixing that can erase the buoyant outflow.

Sensitivity of WRF-ARW for Heavy Precipitation Event over the Eastern Black Sea Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doǧan, Onur Hakan; Önol, Barış

2017-04-01

In this study, we examined the extreme summer precipitation case over the Eastern Black Sea region of Turkey by using WRF-ARW. 11 people were killed by the flood and many buildings were damaged by the landslides in Artvin province. The flood caused by heavy precipitation between August 23 and 24, 2015 and the station observation is 255 mm total precipitation for the two days. We have also used satellite based observational data (Global Precipitation Measurement: GPM), which represents 150 mm total precipitation during case, to validate precipitation simulations. We designed three nested domains with 27-9-3 km resolutions for the simulations and the inner domain covers the all Black Sea and the surrounded coasts. The simulations have been driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim data and the initial conditions have been generated for 4 different simulations which are 3-days, 7-days, 15-days and 25-days long. WRF-ARW model physics parameters have been tested to improve simulation capability for extreme precipitation events. The microphysics (Kessler and New-Thompson) and PBL (YSU PBL and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic) options have been applied for each simulations separately, therefore 15 sensitivity simulation have been analyzed by using different parametrizations. In general, all simulations underestimated the two days extreme precipitation event which the large scale flow interact with warmer sea surface temperatures and complex topography over the eastern Black Sea region. The 3-days simulation with Kessler microphysics and YSU PBL predicts 148 mm precipitation which is highest simulated precipitation compare to all simulations for the corresponding station location. Moreover 25-days simulation represents better spatial coverage for precipitation pattern compare to the GPM data.

Simulation of a master-slave event set processor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Comfort, J.C.

1984-03-01

Event set manipulation may consume a considerable amount of the computation time spent in performing a discrete-event simulation. One way of minimizing this time is to allow event set processing to proceed in parallel with the remainder of the simulation computation. The paper describes a multiprocessor simulation computer, in which all non-event set processing is performed by the principal processor (called the host). Event set processing is coordinated by a front end processor (the master) and actually performed by several other functionally identical processors (the slaves). A trace-driven simulation program modeling this system was constructed, and was run with tracemore » output taken from two different simulation programs. Output from this simulation suggests that a significant reduction in run time may be realized by this approach. Sensitivity analysis was performed on the significant parameters to the system (number of slave processors, relative processor speeds, and interprocessor communication times). A comparison between actual and simulation run times for a one-processor system was used to assist in the validation of the simulation. 7 references.« less

Mechanics of Interrill Erosion with Wind-Driven Rain (WDR)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This article provides an evaluation analysis for the performance of the interrill component of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model for Wind-Driven Rain (WDR) events. The interrill delivery rates (Di) were collected in the wind tunnel rainfall simulator facility of the International Cen...

Power-Law Statistics of Driven Reconnection in the Magnetically Closed Corona

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klimchuk, J. A.; DeVore, C. R.; Knizhnik, K. J.; Uritskiy, V. M.

2018-01-01

Numerous observations have revealed that power-law distributions are ubiquitous in energetic solar processes. Hard X-rays, soft X-rays, extreme ultraviolet radiation, and radio waves all display power-law frequency distributions. Since magnetic reconnection is the driving mechanism for many energetic solar phenomena, it is likely that reconnection events themselves display such power-law distributions. In this work, we perform numerical simulations of the solar corona driven by simple convective motions at the photospheric level. Using temperature changes, current distributions, and Poynting fluxes as proxies for heating, we demonstrate that energetic events occurring in our simulation display power-law frequency distributions, with slopes in good agreement with observations. We suggest that the braiding-associated reconnection in the corona can be understood in terms of a self-organized criticality model driven by convective rotational motions similar to those observed at the photosphere.

NEVESIM: event-driven neural simulation framework with a Python interface.

PubMed

Pecevski, Dejan; Kappel, David; Jonke, Zeno

2014-01-01

NEVESIM is a software package for event-driven simulation of networks of spiking neurons with a fast simulation core in C++, and a scripting user interface in the Python programming language. It supports simulation of heterogeneous networks with different types of neurons and synapses, and can be easily extended by the user with new neuron and synapse types. To enable heterogeneous networks and extensibility, NEVESIM is designed to decouple the simulation logic of communicating events (spikes) between the neurons at a network level from the implementation of the internal dynamics of individual neurons. In this paper we will present the simulation framework of NEVESIM, its concepts and features, as well as some aspects of the object-oriented design approaches and simulation strategies that were utilized to efficiently implement the concepts and functionalities of the framework. We will also give an overview of the Python user interface, its basic commands and constructs, and also discuss the benefits of integrating NEVESIM with Python. One of the valuable capabilities of the simulator is to simulate exactly and efficiently networks of stochastic spiking neurons from the recently developed theoretical framework of neural sampling. This functionality was implemented as an extension on top of the basic NEVESIM framework. Altogether, the intended purpose of the NEVESIM framework is to provide a basis for further extensions that support simulation of various neural network models incorporating different neuron and synapse types that can potentially also use different simulation strategies.

NEVESIM: event-driven neural simulation framework with a Python interface

PubMed Central

Pecevski, Dejan; Kappel, David; Jonke, Zeno

2014-01-01

NEVESIM is a software package for event-driven simulation of networks of spiking neurons with a fast simulation core in C++, and a scripting user interface in the Python programming language. It supports simulation of heterogeneous networks with different types of neurons and synapses, and can be easily extended by the user with new neuron and synapse types. To enable heterogeneous networks and extensibility, NEVESIM is designed to decouple the simulation logic of communicating events (spikes) between the neurons at a network level from the implementation of the internal dynamics of individual neurons. In this paper we will present the simulation framework of NEVESIM, its concepts and features, as well as some aspects of the object-oriented design approaches and simulation strategies that were utilized to efficiently implement the concepts and functionalities of the framework. We will also give an overview of the Python user interface, its basic commands and constructs, and also discuss the benefits of integrating NEVESIM with Python. One of the valuable capabilities of the simulator is to simulate exactly and efficiently networks of stochastic spiking neurons from the recently developed theoretical framework of neural sampling. This functionality was implemented as an extension on top of the basic NEVESIM framework. Altogether, the intended purpose of the NEVESIM framework is to provide a basis for further extensions that support simulation of various neural network models incorporating different neuron and synapse types that can potentially also use different simulation strategies. PMID:25177291

Heavy precipitation in a changing climate: Does short-term summer precipitation increase faster?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ban, Nikolina; Schmidli, Juerg; Schär, Christoph

2015-04-01

Climate models project that heavy precipitation events intensify with climate change. It is generally accepted that extreme day-long events will increase at a rate of about 6-7% per degree warming, consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. However, recent studies suggest that sub-daily (e.g. hourly) precipitation extremes may increase at about twice this rate (referred to as super-adiabatic scaling). Conventional climate models are not suited to assess such events, due to the limited spatial resolution and the need to parameterize convective precipitation (i.e. thunderstorms and rain showers). Here we employ a convection-resolving version of the COSMO model across an extended region (1100 km x 1100 km) covering the European Alps to investigate the differences between parameterized and explicit convection in climate-change scenarios. We conduct 10-year long integrations at resolutions of 12 and 2km. Validation using ERA-Interim driven simulations reveals major improvements with the 2km resolution, in particular regarding the diurnal cycle of mean precipitation and the representation of hourly extremes. In addition, 2km simulations replicate the observed super-adiabatic scaling at precipitation stations, i.e. peak hourly events increase faster with environmental temperature than the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of 7%/K (see Ban et al. 2014). Convection-resolving climate change scenarios are conducted using control (1991-2000) and scenario (2081-2090) simulations driven by a CMIP5 GCM (i.e. the MPI-ESM-LR) under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. Consistent with previous results, projections reveal a significant decrease of mean summer precipitation (by 30%). However, unlike previous studies, we find that increase in both extreme day-long and hour-long precipitation events asymptotically intensify with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation in 2km simulation (Ban et al. 2015). Differences to previous studies might be due to the model or region considered, but we also show that it is inconsistent to extrapolate from present-day super-adiabatic precipitation scaling into the future. The applicability of the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling across the whole event spectrum is a potentially useful result for climate impact adaptation. Ban, N., J. Schmidli and C. Schär (2015): Heavy precipitation in a changing climate: Does short-term summer precipitation increase faster? Submitted to GRL. Ban, N., J. Schmidli and C. Schär (2014): Evaluation of the convection-resolving regional climate modeling approach in decade-long simulations. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.,119, 7889-7907, doi:10.1002/2014JD021478

Fluctuation-dissipation relations for motions of center of mass in driven granular fluids under gravity.

PubMed

Wakou, Jun'ichi; Isobe, Masaharu

2012-06-01

We investigated the validity of fluctuation-dissipation relations in the nonequilibrium stationary state of fluidized granular media under gravity by two independent approaches, based on theory and numerical simulations. A phenomenological Langevin-type theory describing the fluctuation of center of mass height, which was originally constructed for a one-dimensional granular gas on a vibrating bottom plate, was generalized to any dimensionality, even for the case in which the vibrating bottom plate is replaced by a thermal wall. The theory predicts a fluctuation-dissipation relation known to be satisfied at equilibrium, with a modification that replaces the equilibrium temperature by an effective temperature defined by the center of mass kinetic energy. To test the validity of the fluctuation-dissipation relation, we performed extensive and accurate event-driven molecular dynamics simulations for the model system with a thermal wall at the bottom. The power spectrum and response function of the center of mass height were measured and closely compared with theoretical predictions. It is shown that the fluctuation-dissipation relation for the granular system is satisfied, especially in the high-frequency (short time) region, for a wide range of system parameters. Finally, we describe the relationship between systematic deviations in the low-frequency (long time) region and the time scales of the driven granular system.

Process-based model predictions of hurricane induced morphodynamic change on low-lying barrier islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.; Elias, Edwin; Wang, Ping; Rosati, Julie D.; Roberts, Tiffany M.

2011-01-01

Using Delft3D, a Chandeleur Island model was constructed to examine the sediment-transport patterns and morphodynamic change caused by Hurricane Katrina and similar storm events. The model setup included a coarse Gulf of Mexico domain and a nested finer-resolution Chandeleur Island domain. The finer-resolution domain resolved morphodynamic processes driven by storms and tides. A sensitivity analysis of the simulated morphodynamic response was performed to investigate the effects of variations in surge levels. The Chandeleur morphodynamic model reproduced several important features that matched observed morphodynamic changes. A simulation of bathymetric change driven by storm surge alone (no waves) along the central portion of the Chandeleur Islands showed (1) a general landward retreat and lowering of the island chain and (2) multiple breaches that increased the degree of island dissection. The locations of many of the breaches correspond with the low-lying or narrow sections of the initial bathymetry. The major part of the morphological change occurred prior to the peak of the surge when overtopping of the islands produced a strong water-level gradient and induced significant flow velocities.

A new concept for simulation of vegetated land surface dynamics - Part 1: The event driven phenology model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovalskyy, V.; Henebry, G. M.

2012-01-01

Phenologies of the vegetated land surface are being used increasingly for diagnosis and prognosis of climate change consequences. Current prospective and retrospective phenological models stand far apart in their approaches to the subject. We report on an exploratory attempt to implement a phenological model based on a new event driven concept which has both diagnostic and prognostic capabilities in the same modeling framework. This Event Driven Phenological Model (EDPM) is shown to simulate land surface phenologies and phenophase transition dates in agricultural landscapes based on assimilation of weather data and land surface observations from spaceborne sensors. The model enables growing season phenologies to develop in response to changing environmental conditions and disturbance events. It also has the ability to ingest remotely sensed data to adjust its output to improve representation of the modeled variable. We describe the model and report results of initial testing of the EDPM using Level 2 flux tower records from the Ameriflux sites at Mead, Nebraska, USA, and at Bondville, Illinois, USA. Simulating the dynamics of normalized difference vegetation index based on flux tower data, the predictions by the EDPM show good agreement (RMSE < 0.08; r2 > 0.8) for maize and soybean during several growing seasons at different locations. This study presents the EDPM used in the companion paper (Kovalskyy and Henebry, 2011) in a coupling scheme to estimate daily actual evapotranspiration over multiple growing seasons.

A new concept for simulation of vegetated land surface dynamics - Part 1: The event driven phenology model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovalskyy, V.; Henebry, G. M.

2011-05-01

Phenologies of the vegetated land surface are being used increasingly for diagnosis and prognosis of climate change consequences. Current prospective and retrospective phenological models stand far apart in their approaches to the subject. We report on an exploratory attempt to implement a phenological model based on a new event driven concept which has both diagnostic and prognostic capabilities in the same modeling framework. This Event Driven Phenological Model (EDPM) is shown to simulate land surface phenologies and phenophase transition dates in agricultural landscapes based on assimilation of weather data and land surface observations from spaceborne sensors. The model enables growing season phenologies to develop in response to changing environmental conditions and disturbance events. It also has the ability to ingest remotely sensed data to adjust its output to improve representation of the modeled variable. We describe the model and report results of initial testing of the EDPM using Level 2 flux tower records from the Ameriflux sites at Mead, Nebraska, USA, and at Bondville, Illinois, USA. Simulating the dynamics of normalized difference vegetation index based on flux tower data, the predictions by the EDPM show good agreement (RMSE < 0.08; r2>0.8) for maize and soybean during several growing seasons at different locations. This study presents the EDPM used in the companion paper (Kovalskyy and Henebry, 2011) in a coupling scheme to estimate daily actual evapotranspiration over multiple growing seasons.

On the Importance of High Frequency Gravity Waves for Ice Nucleation in the Tropical Tropopause Layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jensen, Eric J.

2016-01-01

Recent investigations of the influence of atmospheric waves on ice nucleation in cirrus have identified a number of key processes and sensitivities: (1) ice concentrations produced by homogeneous freezing are strongly dependent on cooling rates, with gravity waves dominating upper tropospheric cooling rates; (2) rapid cooling driven by high-frequency waves are likely responsible for the rare occurrences of very high ice concentrations in cirrus; (3) sedimentation and entrainment tend to decrease ice concentrations as cirrus age; and (4) in some situations, changes in temperature tendency driven by high-frequency waves can quench ice nucleation events and limit ice concentrations. Here we use parcel-model simulations of ice nucleation driven by long-duration, constant-pressure balloon temperature time series, along with an extensive dataset of cold cirrus microphysical properties from the recent ATTREX high-altitude aircraft campaign, to statistically examine the importance of high-frequency waves as well as the consistency between our theoretical understanding of ice nucleation and observed ice concentrations. The parcel-model simulations indicate common occurrence of peak ice concentrations exceeding several hundred per liter. Sedimentation and entrainment would reduce ice concentrations as clouds age, but 1-D simulations using a wave parameterization (which underestimates rapid cooling events) still produce ice concentrations higher than indicated by observations. We find that quenching of nucleation events by high-frequency waves occurs infrequently and does not prevent occurrences of large ice concentrations in parcel simulations of homogeneous freezing. In fact, the high-frequency variability in the balloon temperature data is entirely responsible for production of these high ice concentrations in the simulations.

Discontinuous decompaction of a falling sandpile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duran, J.; Mazozi, T.; Luding, S.; Clément, E.; Rajchenbach, J.

1996-02-01

We investigate experimentally and via computer simulations the fall of a two dimensional granular material in a rectangular container with friction only at lateral walls. We study the decompaction modes of the granular assembly, which is a basic question relevant to the general dynamics of a noncohesive powder. We observe during the fall the possible occurrence of successive cracks splitting the initial pile into smaller blocks as time passes. These cracks preferentially occur in the lower part of the array, resulting in an ascending decompaction wave in the bulk. We show experimentally how this effect is related to the surface roughness of the boundaries. A heuristic continuum theory is proposed that rationalizes the experimental results. Furthermore, event driven simulations, including particle rotations and friction, parallel nicely the experimental observations. In the simulations, we find strong pressure fluctuations at the boundaries correlated to the occurrence of arches.

Scientific Benefits of Space Science Models Archiving at Community Coordinated Modeling Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Berrios, David; Chulaki, Anna; Hesse, Michael; MacNeice, Peter J.; Maddox, Marlo M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Rastaetter, Lutz; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre

2009-01-01

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) hosts a set of state-of-the-art space science models ranging from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. CCMC provides a web-based Run-on-Request system, by which the interested scientist can request simulations for a broad range of space science problems. To allow the models to be driven by data relevant to particular events CCMC developed a tool that automatically downloads data from data archives and transform them to required formats. CCMC also provides a tailored web-based visualization interface for the model output, as well as the capability to download the simulation output in portable format. CCMC offers a variety of visualization and output analysis tools to aid scientists in interpretation of simulation results. During eight years since the Run-on-request system became available the CCMC archived the results of almost 3000 runs that are covering significant space weather events and time intervals of interest identified by the community. The simulation results archived at CCMC also include a library of general purpose runs with modeled conditions that are used for education and research. Archiving results of simulations performed in support of several Modeling Challenges helps to evaluate the progress in space weather modeling over time. We will highlight the scientific benefits of CCMC space science model archive and discuss plans for further development of advanced methods to interact with simulation results.

Hard Sphere Simulation by Event-Driven Molecular Dynamics: Breakthrough, Numerical Difficulty, and Overcoming the issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isobe, Masaharu

Hard sphere/disk systems are among the simplest models and have been used to address numerous fundamental problems in the field of statistical physics. The pioneering numerical works on the solid-fluid phase transition based on Monte Carlo (MC) and molecular dynamics (MD) methods published in 1957 represent historical milestones, which have had a significant influence on the development of computer algorithms and novel tools to obtain physical insights. This chapter addresses the works of Alder's breakthrough regarding hard sphere/disk simulation: (i) event-driven molecular dynamics, (ii) long-time tail, (iii) molasses tail, and (iv) two-dimensional melting/crystallization. From a numerical viewpoint, there are serious issues that must be overcome for further breakthrough. Here, we present a brief review of recent progress in this area.

The temporal evolution of explosive events and its implication on reconnection dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, L.; Liu, W.; De Pontieu, B.; Huang, Y. M.; Peter, H.; Bhattacharjee, A.

2017-12-01

Transition-region explosive events and other bursts seen in extreme UV light are characterized by broad spectral line profiles, and the more violent ones show a strong enhancement of emission. They are thought to be driven by magnetic reconnection, because of their characteristic spectral profiles often indicating strong Alfvénic flows, and because of the fact that they typically occur where magnetic flux concentrations of opposite polarity intersect. In this presentation, we will focus on the temporal evolution of transition-region explosive events. In particular, we will investigate fast onsets of these events and the rapid oscillations of intensity during these event. The fast onset refers to the beginning of an explosive event, where the intensities and the widths of its line profiles increase dramatically (often within less than 10 seconds) and the rapid oscillations of intensity refer to blinks of emission that usually last less than 10 seconds during the event. In order to interpret and understand underlying mechanisms of these observations, we conduct numerical simulation of an explosive event and calculate its spectra. We observe a similar temporal evolution in the synthetic Si IV spectra when the explosive event is driven by time-dependent reconnection—plasmoid instability. The qualitative agreement between observations and simulations suggests that the temporal evolution of Si IV spectra of explosive events are closely related to reconnection dynamics.

Dynamic Structure Factor and Transport Coefficients of a Homogeneously Driven Granular Fluid in Steady State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vollmayr-Lee, Katharina; Zippelius, Annette; Aspelmeier, Timo

2011-03-01

We study the dynamic structure factor of a granular fluid of hard spheres, driven into a stationary nonequilibrium state by balancing the energy loss due to inelastic collisions with the energy input due to driving. The driving is chosen to conserve momentum, so that fluctuating hydrodynamics predicts the existence of sound modes. We present results of computer simulations which are based on an event driven algorithm. The dynamic structure factor F (q , ω) is determined for volume fractions 0.05, 0.1 and 0.2 and coefficients of normal restitution 0.8 and 0.9. We observe sound waves, and compare our results for F (q , ω) with the predictions of generalized fluctuating hydrodynamics which takes into account that temperature fluctuations decay either diffusively or with a finite relaxation rate, depending on wave number and inelasticity. We determine the speed of sound and the transport coefficients and compare them to the results of kinetic theory. K.V.L. thanks the Institute of Theoretical Physics, University of Goettingen, for financial support and hospitality.

Response of the Antarctic Stratosphere to Warm Pool EI Nino Events in the GEOS CCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Song, In-Sun; Oman, Luke D.; Newman, Paul A.; Molod, Andrea M.; Frith, Stacey M.; Nielsen, J. Eric

2011-01-01

A new type of EI Nino event has been identified in the last decade. During "warm pool" EI Nino (WPEN) events, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central equatorial Pacific are warmer than average. The EI Nino signal propagates poleward and upward as large-scale atmospheric waves, causing unusual weather patterns and warming the polar stratosphere. In austral summer, observations show that the Antarctic lower stratosphere is several degrees (K) warmer during WPEN events than during the neutral phase of EI Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Furthermore, the stratospheric response to WPEN events depends of the direction of tropical stratospheric winds: the Antarctic warming is largest when WPEN events are coincident with westward winds in the tropical lower and middle stratosphere i.e., the westward phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Westward winds are associated with enhanced convection in the subtropics, and with increased poleward wave activity. In this paper, a new formulation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model, Version 2 (GEOS V2 CCM) is used to substantiate the observed stratospheric response to WPEN events. One simulation is driven by SSTs typical of a WPEN event, while another simulation is driven by ENSO neutral SSTs; both represent a present-day climate. Differences between the two simulations can be directly attributed to the anomalous WPEN SSTs. During WPEN events, relative to ENSO neutral, the model simulates the observed increase in poleward planetary wave activity in the South Pacific during austral spring, as well as the relative warming of the Antarctic lower stratosphere in austral summer. However, the modeled response to WPEN does not depend on the phase of the QBO. The modeled tropical wind oscillation does not extend far enough into the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere, likely explaining the model's insensitivity to the phase of the QBO during WPEN events.

MoSeS: Modelling and Simulation for e-Social Science.

PubMed

Townend, Paul; Xu, Jie; Birkin, Mark; Turner, Andy; Wu, Belinda

2009-07-13

MoSeS (Modelling and Simulation for e-Social Science) is a research node of the National Centre for e-Social Science. MoSeS uses e-Science techniques to execute an events-driven model that simulates discrete demographic processes; this allows us to project the UK population 25 years into the future. This paper describes the architecture, simulation methodology and latest results obtained by MoSeS.

LCP method for a planar passive dynamic walker based on an event-driven scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Xu-Dong; Wang, Qi

2018-06-01

The main purpose of this paper is to present a linear complementarity problem (LCP) method for a planar passive dynamic walker with round feet based on an event-driven scheme. The passive dynamic walker is treated as a planar multi-rigid-body system. The dynamic equations of the passive dynamic walker are obtained by using Lagrange's equations of the second kind. The normal forces and frictional forces acting on the feet of the passive walker are described based on a modified Hertz contact model and Coulomb's law of dry friction. The state transition problem of stick-slip between feet and floor is formulated as an LCP, which is solved with an event-driven scheme. Finally, to validate the methodology, four gaits of the walker are simulated: the stance leg neither slips nor bounces; the stance leg slips without bouncing; the stance leg bounces without slipping; the walker stands after walking several steps.

LCP method for a planar passive dynamic walker based on an event-driven scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Xu-Dong; Wang, Qi

2018-02-01

The main purpose of this paper is to present a linear complementarity problem (LCP) method for a planar passive dynamic walker with round feet based on an event-driven scheme. The passive dynamic walker is treated as a planar multi-rigid-body system. The dynamic equations of the passive dynamic walker are obtained by using Lagrange's equations of the second kind. The normal forces and frictional forces acting on the feet of the passive walker are described based on a modified Hertz contact model and Coulomb's law of dry friction. The state transition problem of stick-slip between feet and floor is formulated as an LCP, which is solved with an event-driven scheme. Finally, to validate the methodology, four gaits of the walker are simulated: the stance leg neither slips nor bounces; the stance leg slips without bouncing; the stance leg bounces without slipping; the walker stands after walking several steps.

Evolution of Starburst Galaxies in the Illustris Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilkinson, C. L.; Pimbblet, K. A.; Stott, J. P.; Few, C. G.; Gibson, B. K.

2018-06-01

There is a consensus in the literature that starburst galaxies are triggered by interaction events. However, it remains an open question as to what extent both merging and non-merging interactions have in triggering starbursts? In this study, we make use of the Illustris simulation to test how different triggering mechanisms can effect starburst events. We examine star formation rate, colour and environment of starburst galaxies to determine if this could be why we witness a bimodality in post-starburst populations within observational studies. Further, we briefly test the extent of quenching due to AGN feedback. From Illustris, we select 196 starburst galaxies at z = 0.15 and split them into post-merger and pre-merger/harassment driven starburst samples. We find that 55% of this sample not undergone a merger in the past 2 Gyr. Both of our samples are located in low-density environments within the filament regions of the cosmic web, however we find that pre-merger/harassment driven starburst are in higher density environments than post-merger driven starbursts. We also find that pre-merger/harassment starbursts are redder than post-merger starbursts, this could be driven by environmental effects. Both however, produce nuclear starbursts of comparable strengths.

Anticipating the Chaotic Behaviour of Industrial Systems Based on Stochastic, Event-Driven Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruzzone, Agostino G.; Revetria, Roberto; Simeoni, Simone; Viazzo, Simone; Orsoni, Alessandra

2004-08-01

In logistics and industrial production managers must deal with the impact of stochastic events to improve performances and reduce costs. In fact, production and logistics systems are generally designed considering some parameters as deterministically distributed. While this assumption is mostly used for preliminary prototyping, it is sometimes also retained during the final design stage, and especially for estimated parameters (i.e. Market Request). The proposed methodology can determine the impact of stochastic events in the system by evaluating the chaotic threshold level. Such an approach, based on the application of a new and innovative methodology, can be implemented to find the condition under which chaos makes the system become uncontrollable. Starting from problem identification and risk assessment, several classification techniques are used to carry out an effect analysis and contingency plan estimation. In this paper the authors illustrate the methodology with respect to a real industrial case: a production problem related to the logistics of distributed chemical processing.

Requirements analysis for a hardware, discrete-event, simulation engine accelerator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Paul J., Jr.

1991-12-01

An analysis of a general Discrete Event Simulation (DES), executing on the distributed architecture of an eight mode Intel PSC/2 hypercube, was performed. The most time consuming portions of the general DES algorithm were determined to be the functions associated with message passing of required simulation data between processing nodes of the hypercube architecture. A behavioral description, using the IEEE standard VHSIC Hardware Description and Design Language (VHDL), for a general DES hardware accelerator is presented. The behavioral description specifies the operational requirements for a DES coprocessor to augment the hypercube's execution of DES simulations. The DES coprocessor design implements the functions necessary to perform distributed discrete event simulations using a conservative time synchronization protocol.

Supporting Beacon and Event-Driven Messages in Vehicular Platoons through Token-Based Strategies

PubMed Central

Uhlemann, Elisabeth

2018-01-01

Timely and reliable inter-vehicle communications is a critical requirement to support traffic safety applications, such as vehicle platooning. Furthermore, low-delay communications allow the platoon to react quickly to unexpected events. In this scope, having a predictable and highly effective medium access control (MAC) method is of utmost importance. However, the currently available IEEE 802.11p technology is unable to adequately address these challenges. In this paper, we propose a MAC method especially adapted to platoons, able to transmit beacons within the required time constraints, but with a higher reliability level than IEEE 802.11p, while concurrently enabling efficient dissemination of event-driven messages. The protocol circulates the token within the platoon not in a round-robin fashion, but based on beacon data age, i.e., the time that has passed since the previous collection of status information, thereby automatically offering repeated beacon transmission opportunities for increased reliability. In addition, we propose three different methods for supporting event-driven messages co-existing with beacons. Analysis and simulation results in single and multi-hop scenarios showed that, by providing non-competitive channel access and frequent retransmission opportunities, our protocol can offer beacon delivery within one beacon generation interval while fulfilling the requirements on low-delay dissemination of event-driven messages for traffic safety applications. PMID:29570676

Supporting Beacon and Event-Driven Messages in Vehicular Platoons through Token-Based Strategies.

PubMed

Balador, Ali; Uhlemann, Elisabeth; Calafate, Carlos T; Cano, Juan-Carlos

2018-03-23

Timely and reliable inter-vehicle communications is a critical requirement to support traffic safety applications, such as vehicle platooning. Furthermore, low-delay communications allow the platoon to react quickly to unexpected events. In this scope, having a predictable and highly effective medium access control (MAC) method is of utmost importance. However, the currently available IEEE 802.11p technology is unable to adequately address these challenges. In this paper, we propose a MAC method especially adapted to platoons, able to transmit beacons within the required time constraints, but with a higher reliability level than IEEE 802.11p, while concurrently enabling efficient dissemination of event-driven messages. The protocol circulates the token within the platoon not in a round-robin fashion, but based on beacon data age, i.e., the time that has passed since the previous collection of status information, thereby automatically offering repeated beacon transmission opportunities for increased reliability. In addition, we propose three different methods for supporting event-driven messages co-existing with beacons. Analysis and simulation results in single and multi-hop scenarios showed that, by providing non-competitive channel access and frequent retransmission opportunities, our protocol can offer beacon delivery within one beacon generation interval while fulfilling the requirements on low-delay dissemination of event-driven messages for traffic safety applications.

Gyrokinetic Simulations of Transport Scaling and Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hahm, Taik Soo

2001-10-01

There is accumulating evidence from global gyrokinetic particle simulations with profile variations and experimental fluctuation measurements that microturbulence, with its time-averaged eddy size which scales with the ion gyroradius, can cause ion thermal transport which deviates from the gyro-Bohm scaling. The physics here can be best addressed by large scale (rho* = rho_i/a = 0.001) full torus gyrokinetic particle-in-cell turbulence simulations using our massively parallel, general geometry gyrokinetic toroidal code with field-aligned mesh. Simulation results from device-size scans for realistic parameters show that ``wave transport'' mechanism is not the dominant contribution for this Bohm-like transport and that transport is mostly diffusive driven by microscopic scale fluctuations in the presence of self-generated zonal flows. In this work, we analyze the turbulence and zonal flow statistics from simulations and compare to nonlinear theoretical predictions including the radial decorrelation of the transport events by zonal flows and the resulting probability distribution function (PDF). In particular, possible deviation of the characteristic radial size of transport processes from the time-averaged radial size of the density fluctuation eddys will be critically examined.

Conceptual and perceptual encoding instructions differently affect event recall.

PubMed

García-Bajos, Elvira; Migueles, Malen; Aizpurua, Alaitz

2014-11-01

When recalling an event, people usually retrieve the main facts and a reduced proportion of specific details. The objective of this experiment was to study the effects of conceptually and perceptually driven encoding in the recall of conceptual and perceptual information of an event. The materials selected for the experiment were two movie trailers. To enhance the encoding instructions, after watching the first trailer participants answered conceptual or perceptual questions about the event, while a control group answered general knowledge questions. After watching the second trailer, all of the participants completed a closed-ended recall task consisting of conceptual and perceptual items. Conceptual information was better recalled than perceptual details and participants made more perceptual than conceptual commission errors. Conceptually driven processing enhanced the recall of conceptual information, while perceptually driven processing not only did not improve the recall of descriptive details, but also damaged the standard conceptual/perceptual recall relationship.

Shock propagation in locally driven granular systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joy, Jilmy P.; Pathak, Sudhir N.; Das, Dibyendu; Rajesh, R.

2017-09-01

We study shock propagation in a system of initially stationary hard spheres that is driven by a continuous injection of particles at the origin. The disturbance created by the injection of energy spreads radially outward through collisions between particles. Using scaling arguments, we determine the exponent characterizing the power-law growth of this disturbance in all dimensions. The scaling functions describing the various physical quantities are determined using large-scale event-driven simulations in two and three dimensions for both elastic and inelastic systems. The results are shown to describe well the data from two different experiments on granular systems that are similarly driven.

Shock propagation in locally driven granular systems.

PubMed

Joy, Jilmy P; Pathak, Sudhir N; Das, Dibyendu; Rajesh, R

2017-09-01

We study shock propagation in a system of initially stationary hard spheres that is driven by a continuous injection of particles at the origin. The disturbance created by the injection of energy spreads radially outward through collisions between particles. Using scaling arguments, we determine the exponent characterizing the power-law growth of this disturbance in all dimensions. The scaling functions describing the various physical quantities are determined using large-scale event-driven simulations in two and three dimensions for both elastic and inelastic systems. The results are shown to describe well the data from two different experiments on granular systems that are similarly driven.

Exact subthreshold integration with continuous spike times in discrete-time neural network simulations.

PubMed

Morrison, Abigail; Straube, Sirko; Plesser, Hans Ekkehard; Diesmann, Markus

2007-01-01

Very large networks of spiking neurons can be simulated efficiently in parallel under the constraint that spike times are bound to an equidistant time grid. Within this scheme, the subthreshold dynamics of a wide class of integrate-and-fire-type neuron models can be integrated exactly from one grid point to the next. However, the loss in accuracy caused by restricting spike times to the grid can have undesirable consequences, which has led to interest in interpolating spike times between the grid points to retrieve an adequate representation of network dynamics. We demonstrate that the exact integration scheme can be combined naturally with off-grid spike events found by interpolation. We show that by exploiting the existence of a minimal synaptic propagation delay, the need for a central event queue is removed, so that the precision of event-driven simulation on the level of single neurons is combined with the efficiency of time-driven global scheduling. Further, for neuron models with linear subthreshold dynamics, even local event queuing can be avoided, resulting in much greater efficiency on the single-neuron level. These ideas are exemplified by two implementations of a widely used neuron model. We present a measure for the efficiency of network simulations in terms of their integration error and show that for a wide range of input spike rates, the novel techniques we present are both more accurate and faster than standard techniques.

Simulation of a Driven Dense Granular Gas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bizon, Chris; Shattuck, M. D.; Swift, J. B.; Swinney, Harry L.

1998-11-01

Event driven particle simulations quantitatively reproduce the experimental results on vibrated granular layers, including the formation of standing wave patterns(C. Bizon, M.D. Shattuck, J.B. Swift, W.D. McCormick, and H.L. Swinney, Phys. Rev. Lett. 80), pp. 57-60 (1998). and secondary instabilities(J.R. deBruyn, C. Bizon, M.D. Shattuck, D. Goldman, J.B. Swift, and H.L. Swinney, Phys. Rev. Lett. 81) (1998), to appear. . In these simulations the velocity distributions are nearly Gaussian when scaled with the local fluctuational kinetic energy (granular temperature); this suggests that inelastic dense gas kinetic theory is applicable. We perform simulations of a two-dimensional granular gas that is homogeneously driven with fluctuating forces. We find that the equation of state differs from that of an elastic dense gas and that this difference is due to a change in the distribution of relative velocities at collisions. Granular thermal conductivity and viscosity are measured by allowing the fluctuating forces to have large scale spatial gradients.

Exact event-driven implementation for recurrent networks of stochastic perfect integrate-and-fire neurons.

PubMed

Taillefumier, Thibaud; Touboul, Jonathan; Magnasco, Marcelo

2012-12-01

In vivo cortical recording reveals that indirectly driven neural assemblies can produce reliable and temporally precise spiking patterns in response to stereotyped stimulation. This suggests that despite being fundamentally noisy, the collective activity of neurons conveys information through temporal coding. Stochastic integrate-and-fire models delineate a natural theoretical framework to study the interplay of intrinsic neural noise and spike timing precision. However, there are inherent difficulties in simulating their networks' dynamics in silico with standard numerical discretization schemes. Indeed, the well-posedness of the evolution of such networks requires temporally ordering every neuronal interaction, whereas the order of interactions is highly sensitive to the random variability of spiking times. Here, we answer these issues for perfect stochastic integrate-and-fire neurons by designing an exact event-driven algorithm for the simulation of recurrent networks, with delayed Dirac-like interactions. In addition to being exact from the mathematical standpoint, our proposed method is highly efficient numerically. We envision that our algorithm is especially indicated for studying the emergence of polychronized motifs in networks evolving under spike-timing-dependent plasticity with intrinsic noise.

Total Dust Deposition Flux During Precipitation in Toyama, Japan, in the Spring of 2009: A Sensitivity Analysis with the NASA GEOS-5 Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yasunari, Teppei J.; Colarco, Peter R.; Lau, William K. M.; Osada, Kazuo; Kido, Mizuka; Mahanama, Sarith P. P.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Da Silva, Arlindo M.

2015-01-01

We compared the observed total dust deposition fluxes during precipitation (TDP) mainly at Toyama in Japan during the period January - April 2009 with results available from four NASA GEOS-5 global model experiments. The modeled results were obtained from three previous experiments and carried out in one experiment, which were all driven by assimilated meteorology and simulating aerosol distributions for the time period. We focus mainly on the observations of two distinct TDP events, which were reported in Osada et al. (2011), at Toyama, Japan, in February (Event B) and March 2009 (Event C). Although all of our GEOS-5 simulations captured aspects of the observed TDP, we found that our low horizontal spatial resolution control experiment performed generally the worst. The other three experiments were run at a higher spatial resolution, with the first differing only in that respect from the control, the second adding imposed a prescribed corrected precipitation product, and the final experiment adding as well assimilation of aerosol optical depth based on MODIS observations. During Event C, the increased horizontal resolution could increase TDP with precipitation increase. There was no significant improvement, however, due to the imposition of the corrected precipitation product. The simulation that incorporated aerosol data assimilation performed was by far the best for this event, but even so could only reproduce less than half of the observed TDP despite the significantly increased atmospheric dust mass concentrations. All three of the high spatial resolution experiments had higher simulated precipitation at Toyama than was observed and that in the lower resolution control run. During Event B, the aerosol data assimilation run did not perform appreciably better than the other higher resolution simulations, suggesting that upstream conditions (i.e., upstream cloudiness), or vertical or horizontal misplacement of the dust plume did not allow for significant improvement in the simulated aerosol distributions. Furthermore, a detailed comparison of observed hourly precipitation and surface particulate mass concentration data suggests that the observed TDP during Event B was highly dependent on short periods of weak precipitation correlated with elevated dust surface concentrations, important details possibly not captured well in a current global model.

Weather and extremes in the last Millennium - a challenge for climate modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raible, Christoph C.; Blumer, Sandro R.; Gomez-Navarro, Juan J.; Lehner, Flavio

2015-04-01

Changes in the climate mean state are expected to influence society, but the socio-economic sensitivity to extreme events might be even more severe. Whether or not the current frequency and severity of extreme events is a unique characteristic of anthropogenic-driven climate change can be assessed by putting the observed changes in a long-term perspective. In doing so, early instrumental series and proxy archives are a rich source to investigate also extreme events, in particular during the last millennium, yet they suffer from spatial and temporal scarcity. Therefore, simulations with coupled general circulation models (GCMs) could fill such gaps and help in deepening our process understanding. In this study, an overview of past and current efforts as well as challenges in modelling paleo weather and extreme events is presented. Using simulations of the last millennium we investigate extreme midlatitude cyclone characteristics, precipitation, and their connection to large-scale atmospheric patterns in the North Atlantic European region. In cold climate states such as the Maunder Minimum, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is found to be predominantly in its negative phase. In this sense, simulations of different models agree with proxy findings for this period. However, some proxy data available for this period suggests an increase in storminess during this period, which could be interpreted as a positive phase of the NAO - a superficial contradiction. The simulated cyclones are partly reduced over Europe, which is consistent with the aforementioned negative phase of the NAO. However, as the meridional temperature gradient is increased during this period - which constitutes a source of low-level baroclincity - they also intensify. This example illustrates how model simulations could be used to improve our proxy interpretation and to gain additional process understanding. Nevertheless, there are also limitations associated with climate modeling efforts to simulate the last millennium. In particular, these models still struggle to properly simulate atmospheric blocking events, an important dynamical feature for dry conditions during summer times. Finally, new and promising ways in improving past climate modelling are briefly introduced. In particular, the use of dynamical downscaling is a powerful tool to bridge the gap between the coarsely resolved GCMs and characteristics of the regional climate, which is potentially recorded in proxy archives. In particular, the representation of extreme events could be improved by dynamical downscaling as processes are better resolved than GCMs.

Abaqus Simulations of Rock Response to Dynamic Loading

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steedman, David W.; Coblentz, David

The LANL Geodynamics Team has been applying Abaqus modeling to achieve increasingly complex simulations. Advancements in Abaqus model building and simulation tools allows this progress. We use Lab-developed constitutive models, the fully coupled CEL Abaqus and general contact to simulate response of realistic sites to explosively driven shock.

Event-Driven Random Back-Propagation: Enabling Neuromorphic Deep Learning Machines

PubMed Central

Neftci, Emre O.; Augustine, Charles; Paul, Somnath; Detorakis, Georgios

2017-01-01

An ongoing challenge in neuromorphic computing is to devise general and computationally efficient models of inference and learning which are compatible with the spatial and temporal constraints of the brain. One increasingly popular and successful approach is to take inspiration from inference and learning algorithms used in deep neural networks. However, the workhorse of deep learning, the gradient descent Gradient Back Propagation (BP) rule, often relies on the immediate availability of network-wide information stored with high-precision memory during learning, and precise operations that are difficult to realize in neuromorphic hardware. Remarkably, recent work showed that exact backpropagated gradients are not essential for learning deep representations. Building on these results, we demonstrate an event-driven random BP (eRBP) rule that uses an error-modulated synaptic plasticity for learning deep representations. Using a two-compartment Leaky Integrate & Fire (I&F) neuron, the rule requires only one addition and two comparisons for each synaptic weight, making it very suitable for implementation in digital or mixed-signal neuromorphic hardware. Our results show that using eRBP, deep representations are rapidly learned, achieving classification accuracies on permutation invariant datasets comparable to those obtained in artificial neural network simulations on GPUs, while being robust to neural and synaptic state quantizations during learning. PMID:28680387

Event-Driven Random Back-Propagation: Enabling Neuromorphic Deep Learning Machines.

PubMed

Neftci, Emre O; Augustine, Charles; Paul, Somnath; Detorakis, Georgios

2017-01-01

An ongoing challenge in neuromorphic computing is to devise general and computationally efficient models of inference and learning which are compatible with the spatial and temporal constraints of the brain. One increasingly popular and successful approach is to take inspiration from inference and learning algorithms used in deep neural networks. However, the workhorse of deep learning, the gradient descent Gradient Back Propagation (BP) rule, often relies on the immediate availability of network-wide information stored with high-precision memory during learning, and precise operations that are difficult to realize in neuromorphic hardware. Remarkably, recent work showed that exact backpropagated gradients are not essential for learning deep representations. Building on these results, we demonstrate an event-driven random BP (eRBP) rule that uses an error-modulated synaptic plasticity for learning deep representations. Using a two-compartment Leaky Integrate & Fire (I&F) neuron, the rule requires only one addition and two comparisons for each synaptic weight, making it very suitable for implementation in digital or mixed-signal neuromorphic hardware. Our results show that using eRBP, deep representations are rapidly learned, achieving classification accuracies on permutation invariant datasets comparable to those obtained in artificial neural network simulations on GPUs, while being robust to neural and synaptic state quantizations during learning.

Measurements of the momentum and current transport from tearing instability in the Madison Symmetric Torus reversed-field pinch

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuritsyn, A.; Fiksel, G.; Almagri, A. F.

2009-05-15

In this paper measurements of momentum and current transport caused by current driven tearing instability are reported. The measurements are done in the Madison Symmetric Torus reversed-field pinch [R. N. Dexter, D. W. Kerst, T. W. Lovell, S. C. Prager, and J. C. Sprott, Fusion Technol. 19, 131 (1991)] in a regime with repetitive bursts of tearing instability causing magnetic field reconnection. It is established that the plasma parallel momentum profile flattens during these reconnection events: The flow decreases in the core and increases at the edge. The momentum relaxation phenomenon is similar in nature to the well established relaxationmore » of the parallel electrical current and could be a general feature of self-organized systems. The measured fluctuation-induced Maxwell and Reynolds stresses, which govern the dynamics of plasma flow, are large and almost balance each other such that their difference is approximately equal to the rate of change of plasma momentum. The Hall dynamo, which is directly related to the Maxwell stress, drives the parallel current profile relaxation at resonant surfaces at the reconnection events. These results qualitatively agree with analytical calculations and numerical simulations. It is plausible that current-driven instabilities can be responsible for momentum transport in other laboratory and astrophysical plasmas.« less

Global MHD Simulation of the Coronal Mass Ejection on 2011 March 7: from Chromosphere to 1 AU

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, M.; Manchester, W.; van der Holst, B.; Oran, R.; Sokolov, I.; Toth, G.; Vourlidas, A.; Liu, Y.; Sun, X.; Gombosi, T. I.

2013-12-01

In this study, we present magnetohydrodynamics simulation results of a fast CME event that occurred on 2011 March 7 by using the newly developed Alfven Wave Solar Model (AWSoM) in Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF). The background solar wind is driven by Alfven-wave pressure and heated by Alfven-wave dissipation in which we have incorporated balanced turbulence at the top of the closed field lines. The magnetic field of the inner boundary is specified with a synoptic magnetogram from SDO/HMI. In order to produce the physically correct CME structures and CME-driven shocks, the electron and proton temperatures are separated so that the electron heat conduction is explicitly treated in conjunction with proton shock heating. Also, collisionless heat conduction is implemented for getting the correct electron temperature at 1 AU. We initiate the CME by using the Gibson-Low flux rope model and simulate the CME propagation to 1 AU. A comprehensive validation study is performed using remote as well as in-situ observations from SOHO, STEREOA/B, ACE, and WIND. Our result shows that the new model can reproduce most of the observed features and the arrival time of the CME is correctly estimated, which suggests the forecasting capability of the new model. We also examine the simulated CME-driven shock structures that are important for modeling the associated solar energetic event (SEP) with diffusive shock acceleration.

Modeling 2D and 3D diffusion.

PubMed

Saxton, Michael J

2007-01-01

Modeling obstructed diffusion is essential to the understanding of diffusion-mediated processes in the crowded cellular environment. Simple Monte Carlo techniques for modeling obstructed random walks are explained and related to Brownian dynamics and more complicated Monte Carlo methods. Random number generation is reviewed in the context of random walk simulations. Programming techniques and event-driven algorithms are discussed as ways to speed simulations.

Simulation of networks of spiking neurons: A review of tools and strategies

PubMed Central

Brette, Romain; Rudolph, Michelle; Carnevale, Ted; Hines, Michael; Beeman, David; Bower, James M.; Diesmann, Markus; Morrison, Abigail; Goodman, Philip H.; Harris, Frederick C.; Zirpe, Milind; Natschläger, Thomas; Pecevski, Dejan; Ermentrout, Bard; Djurfeldt, Mikael; Lansner, Anders; Rochel, Olivier; Vieville, Thierry; Muller, Eilif; Davison, Andrew P.; El Boustani, Sami

2009-01-01

We review different aspects of the simulation of spiking neural networks. We start by reviewing the different types of simulation strategies and algorithms that are currently implemented. We next review the precision of those simulation strategies, in particular in cases where plasticity depends on the exact timing of the spikes. We overview different simulators and simulation environments presently available (restricted to those freely available, open source and documented). For each simulation tool, its advantages and pitfalls are reviewed, with an aim to allow the reader to identify which simulator is appropriate for a given task. Finally, we provide a series of benchmark simulations of different types of networks of spiking neurons, including Hodgkin–Huxley type, integrate-and-fire models, interacting with current-based or conductance-based synapses, using clock-driven or event-driven integration strategies. The same set of models are implemented on the different simulators, and the codes are made available. The ultimate goal of this review is to provide a resource to facilitate identifying the appropriate integration strategy and simulation tool to use for a given modeling problem related to spiking neural networks. PMID:17629781

Two case studies on NARCCAP precipitation extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, Grant B.; Cooley, Daniel; Sain, Stephan R.; Bukovsky, Melissa S.; Mearns, Linda O.

2013-09-01

We introduce novel methodology to examine the ability of six regional climate models (RCMs) in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) ensemble to simulate past extreme precipitation events seen in the observational record over two different regions and seasons. Our primary objective is to examine the strength of daily correspondence of extreme precipitation events between observations and the output of both the RCMs and the driving reanalysis product. To explore this correspondence, we employ methods from multivariate extreme value theory. These methods require that we account for marginal behavior, and we first model and compare climatological quantities which describe tail behavior of daily precipitation for both the observations and model output before turning attention to quantifying the correspondence of the extreme events. Daily precipitation in a West Coast region of North America is analyzed in two seasons, and it is found that the simulated extreme events from the reanalysis-driven NARCCAP models exhibit strong daily correspondence to extreme events in the observational record. Precipitation over a central region of the United States is examined, and we find some daily correspondence between winter extremes simulated by reanalysis-driven NARCCAP models and those seen in observations, but no such correspondence is found for summer extremes. Furthermore, we find greater discrepancies among the NARCCAP models in the tail characteristics of the distribution of daily summer precipitation over this region than seen in precipitation over the West Coast region. We find that the models which employ spectral nudging exhibit stronger tail dependence to observations in the central region.

The Liquid Argon Software Toolkit (LArSoft): Goals, Status and Plan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pordes, Rush; Snider, Erica

LArSoft is a toolkit that provides a software infrastructure and algorithms for the simulation, reconstruction and analysis of events in Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers (LArTPCs). It is used by the ArgoNeuT, LArIAT, MicroBooNE, DUNE (including 35ton prototype and ProtoDUNE) and SBND experiments. The LArSoft collaboration provides an environment for the development, use, and sharing of code across experiments. The ultimate goal is to develop fully automatic processes for reconstruction and analysis of LArTPC events. The toolkit is based on the art framework and has a well-defined architecture to interface to other packages, including to GEANT4 and GENIE simulation softwaremore » and the Pandora software development kit for pattern recognition. It is designed to facilitate and support the evolution of algorithms including their transition to new computing platforms. The development of the toolkit is driven by the scientific stakeholders involved. The core infrastructure includes standard definitions of types and constants, means to input experiment geometries as well as meta and event- data in several formats, and relevant general utilities. Examples of algorithms experiments have contributed to date are: photon-propagation; particle identification; hit finding, track finding and fitting; electromagnetic shower identification and reconstruction. We report on the status of the toolkit and plans for future work.« less

Near Optimal Event-Triggered Control of Nonlinear Discrete-Time Systems Using Neurodynamic Programming.

PubMed

Sahoo, Avimanyu; Xu, Hao; Jagannathan, Sarangapani

2016-09-01

This paper presents an event-triggered near optimal control of uncertain nonlinear discrete-time systems. Event-driven neurodynamic programming (NDP) is utilized to design the control policy. A neural network (NN)-based identifier, with event-based state and input vectors, is utilized to learn the system dynamics. An actor-critic framework is used to learn the cost function and the optimal control input. The NN weights of the identifier, the critic, and the actor NNs are tuned aperiodically once every triggered instant. An adaptive event-trigger condition to decide the trigger instants is derived. Thus, a suitable number of events are generated to ensure a desired accuracy of approximation. A near optimal performance is achieved without using value and/or policy iterations. A detailed analysis of nontrivial inter-event times with an explicit formula to show the reduction in computation is also derived. The Lyapunov technique is used in conjunction with the event-trigger condition to guarantee the ultimate boundedness of the closed-loop system. The simulation results are included to verify the performance of the controller. The net result is the development of event-driven NDP.

Stochastic wave-function unravelling of the generalized Lindblad equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semin, V.; Semina, I.; Petruccione, F.

2017-12-01

We investigate generalized non-Markovian stochastic Schrödinger equations (SSEs), driven by a multidimensional counting process and multidimensional Brownian motion introduced by A. Barchielli and C. Pellegrini [J. Math. Phys. 51, 112104 (2010), 10.1063/1.3514539]. We show that these SSEs can be translated in a nonlinear form, which can be efficiently simulated. The simulation is illustrated by the model of a two-level system in a structured bath, and the results of the simulations are compared with the exact solution of the generalized master equation.

High-fidelity numerical modeling of the Upper Mississippi River under extreme flood condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khosronejad, Ali; Le, Trung; DeWall, Petra; Bartelt, Nicole; Woldeamlak, Solomon; Yang, Xiaolei; Sotiropoulos, Fotis

2016-12-01

We present data-driven numerical simulations of extreme flooding in a large-scale river coupling coherent-structure resolving hydrodynamics with bed morphodynamics under live-bed conditions. The study area is a ∼ 3.2 km long and ∼ 300 m wide reach of the Upper Mississippi River, near Minneapolis MN, which contains several natural islands and man-made hydraulic structures. We employ the large-eddy simulation (LES) and bed-morphodynamic modules of the Virtual Flow Simulator (VFS-Rivers) model, a recently developed in-house code, to investigate the flow and bed evolution of the river during a 100-year flood event. The coupling of the two modules is carried out via a fluid-structure interaction approach using a nested domain approach to enhance the resolution of bridge scour predictions. We integrate data from airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), sub-aqueous sonar apparatus on-board a boat and in-situ laser scanners to construct a digital elevation model of the river bathymetry and surrounding flood plain, including islands and bridge piers. A field campaign under base-flow condition is also carried out to collect mean flow measurements via Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) to validate the hydrodynamic module of the VFS-Rivers model. Our simulation results for the bed evolution of the river under the 100-year flood reveal complex sediment transport dynamics near the bridge piers consisting of both scour and refilling events due to the continuous passage of sand dunes. We find that the scour depth near the bridge piers can reach to a maximum of ∼ 9 m. The data-driven simulation strategy we present in this work exemplifies a practical simulation-based-engineering-approach to investigate the resilience of infrastructures to extreme flood events in intricate field-scale riverine systems.

Predictive Sampling of Rare Conformational Events in Aqueous Solution: Designing a Generalized Orthogonal Space Tempering Method.

PubMed

Lu, Chao; Li, Xubin; Wu, Dongsheng; Zheng, Lianqing; Yang, Wei

2016-01-12

In aqueous solution, solute conformational transitions are governed by intimate interplays of the fluctuations of solute-solute, solute-water, and water-water interactions. To promote molecular fluctuations to enhance sampling of essential conformational changes, a common strategy is to construct an expanded Hamiltonian through a series of Hamiltonian perturbations and thereby broaden the distribution of certain interactions of focus. Due to a lack of active sampling of configuration response to Hamiltonian transitions, it is challenging for common expanded Hamiltonian methods to robustly explore solvent mediated rare conformational events. The orthogonal space sampling (OSS) scheme, as exemplified by the orthogonal space random walk and orthogonal space tempering methods, provides a general framework for synchronous acceleration of slow configuration responses. To more effectively sample conformational transitions in aqueous solution, in this work, we devised a generalized orthogonal space tempering (gOST) algorithm. Specifically, in the Hamiltonian perturbation part, a solvent-accessible-surface-area-dependent term is introduced to implicitly perturb near-solute water-water fluctuations; more importantly in the orthogonal space response part, the generalized force order parameter is generalized as a two-dimension order parameter set, in which essential solute-solvent and solute-solute components are separately treated. The gOST algorithm is evaluated through a molecular dynamics simulation study on the explicitly solvated deca-alanine (Ala10) peptide. On the basis of a fully automated sampling protocol, the gOST simulation enabled repetitive folding and unfolding of the solvated peptide within a single continuous trajectory and allowed for detailed constructions of Ala10 folding/unfolding free energy surfaces. The gOST result reveals that solvent cooperative fluctuations play a pivotal role in Ala10 folding/unfolding transitions. In addition, our assessment analysis suggests that because essential conformational events are mainly driven by the compensating fluctuations of essential solute-solvent and solute-solute interactions, commonly employed "predictive" sampling methods are unlikely to be effective on this seemingly "simple" system. The gOST development presented in this paper illustrates how to employ the OSS scheme for physics-based sampling method designs.

A geostatistical extreme-value framework for fast simulation of natural hazard events

PubMed Central

Stephenson, David B.

2016-01-01

We develop a statistical framework for simulating natural hazard events that combines extreme value theory and geostatistics. Robust generalized additive model forms represent generalized Pareto marginal distribution parameters while a Student’s t-process captures spatial dependence and gives a continuous-space framework for natural hazard event simulations. Efficiency of the simulation method allows many years of data (typically over 10 000) to be obtained at relatively little computational cost. This makes the model viable for forming the hazard module of a catastrophe model. We illustrate the framework by simulating maximum wind gusts for European windstorms, which are found to have realistic marginal and spatial properties, and validate well against wind gust measurements. PMID:27279768

ENSO effects on MLT diurnal tides: A 21 year reanalysis data-driven GAIA model simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Huixin; Sun, Yang-Yi; Miyoshi, Yasunobu; Jin, Hidekatsu

2017-05-01

Tidal responses to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) are investigated for the first time using reanalysis data-driven simulations covering 21 years. The simulation is carried out with the Ground-to-topside Atmosphere-Ionosphere model for Aeronomy (GAIA) during 1996-2016, which covers nine ENSO events. ENSO impacts on diurnal tides at 100 km altitude are analyzed and cross-compared among temperature (T), zonal wind (U), and meridional wind (V), which reveals the following salient features: (1) Tidal response can differ significantly among T, U, and V in terms of magnitude and latitudinal structure, making detection of ENSO effects sensitive to the parameter used and the location of a ground station; (2) the nonmigrating DE3 tide in T and U shows a prominent hemisphere asymmetric response to La Niña, with an increase between 0° and 30°N and a decrease between 30° and 0°S. In contrast, DE3 in V exhibits no significant response; (3) the migrating DW1 enhances during El Niño in equatorial regions for T and U but in off-equatorial regions for V. As the first ENSO study based on reanalysis-driven simulations, GAIA's full set of tidal responses in T, U, and V provides us with a necessary global context to better understand and cross-compare observations during ENSO events. Comparisons with observations during the 1997-98 El Niño and 2010-11 La Niña reveal good agreement in both magnitude and timing. Comparisons with "free-run" WACCM simulations (T) show consistent results in nonmigrating tides DE2 and DE3 but differences in the migrating DW1 tide.

Methodological challenges to bridge the gap between regional climate and hydrology models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bozhinova, Denica; José Gómez-Navarro, Juan; Raible, Christoph; Felder, Guido

2017-04-01

The frequency and severity of floods worldwide, together with their impacts, are expected to increase under climate change scenarios. It is therefore very important to gain insight into the physical mechanisms responsible for such events in order to constrain the associated uncertainties. Model simulations of the climate and hydrological processes are important tools that can provide insight in the underlying physical processes and thus enable an accurate assessment of the risks. Coupled together, they can provide a physically consistent picture that allows to assess the phenomenon in a comprehensive way. However, climate and hydrological models work at different temporal and spatial scales, so there are a number of methodological challenges that need to be carefully addressed. An important issue pertains the presence of biases in the simulation of precipitation. Climate models in general, and Regional Climate models (RCMs) in particular, are affected by a number of systematic biases that limit their reliability. In many studies, prominently the assessment of changes due to climate change, such biases are minimised by applying the so-called delta approach, which focuses on changes disregarding absolute values that are more affected by biases. However, this approach is not suitable in this scenario, as the absolute value of precipitation, rather than the change, is fed into the hydrological model. Therefore, bias has to be previously removed, being this a complex matter where various methodologies have been proposed. In this study, we apply and discuss the advantages and caveats of two different methodologies that correct the simulated precipitation to minimise differences with respect an observational dataset: a linear fit (FIT) of the accumulated distributions and Quantile Mapping (QM). The target region is Switzerland, and therefore the observational dataset is provided by MeteoSwiss. The RCM is the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), driven at the boundaries by the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The raw simulation driven by CESM exhibit prominent biases that stand out in the evolution of the annual cycle and demonstrate that the correction of biases is mandatory in this type of studies, rather than a minor correction that might be neglected. The simulation spans the period 1976 - 2005, although the application of the correction is carried out on a daily basis. Both methods lead to a corrected field of precipitation that respects the temporal evolution of the simulated precipitation, at the same time that mimics the distribution of precipitation according to the one in the observations. Due to the nature of the two methodologies, there are important differences between the products of both corrections, that lead to dataset with different properties. FIT is generally more accurate regarding the reproduction of the tails of the distribution, i.e. extreme events, whereas the nature of QM renders it a general-purpose correction whose skill is equally distributed across the full distribution of precipitation, including central values.

Hydrologic response of catchments to precipitation: Quantification of mechanical carriers and origins of water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Y.-J.; Sudicky, E. A.; Brookfield, A. E.; Jones, J. P.

2011-12-01

Precipitation-induced overland and groundwater flow and mixing processes are quantified to analyze the temporal (event and pre-event water) and spatial (groundwater discharge and overland runoff) origins of water entering a stream. Using a distributed-parameter control volume finite-element simulator that can simultaneously solve the fully coupled partial differential equations describing 2-D Manning and 3-D Darcian flow and advective-dispersive transport, mechanical flow (driven by hydraulic potential) and tracer-based hydrograph separation (driven by dispersive mixing as well as mechanical flow) are simulated in response to precipitation events in two cross sections oriented parallel and perpendicular to a stream. The results indicate that as precipitation becomes more intense, the subsurface mechanical flow contributions tend to become less significant relative to the total pre-event stream discharge. Hydrodynamic mixing can play an important role in enhancing pre-event tracer signals in the stream. This implies that temporally tagged chemical signals introduced into surface-subsurface flow systems from precipitation may not be strong enough to detect the changes in the subsurface flow system. It is concluded that diffusive/dispersive mixing, capillary fringe groundwater ridging, and macropore flow can influence the temporal sources of water in the stream, but any sole mechanism may not fully explain the strong pre-event water discharge. Further investigations of the influence of heterogeneity, residence time, geomorphology, and root zone processes are required to confirm the conclusions of this study.

Hydrologic response of catchments to precipitation: Quantification of mechanical carriers and origins of water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Park, Y.-J.; Sudicky, E.A.; Brookfield, A.E.; Jones, J.P.

2011-01-01

Precipitation-induced overland and groundwater flow and mixing processes are quantified to analyze the temporal (event and pre-event water) and spatial (groundwater discharge and overland runoff) origins of water entering a stream. Using a distributed-parameter control volume finite-element simulator that can simultaneously solve the fully coupled partial differential equations describing 2-D Manning and 3-D Darcian flow and advective-dispersive transport, mechanical flow (driven by hydraulic potential) and tracer-based hydrograph separation (driven by dispersive mixing as well as mechanical flow) are simulated in response to precipitation events in two cross sections oriented parallel and perpendicular to a stream. The results indicate that as precipitation becomes more intense, the subsurface mechanical flow contributions tend to become less significant relative to the total pre-event stream discharge. Hydrodynamic mixing can play an important role in enhancing pre-event tracer signals in the stream. This implies that temporally tagged chemical signals introduced into surface-subsurface flow systems from precipitation may not be strong enough to detect the changes in the subsurface flow system. It is concluded that diffusive/dispersive mixing, capillary fringe groundwater ridging, and macropore flow can influence the temporal sources of water in the stream, but any sole mechanism may not fully explain the strong pre-event water discharge. Further investigations of the influence of heterogeneity, residence time, geomorphology, and root zone processes are required to confirm the conclusions of this study. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Is Slow Slip a Cause or a Result of Tremor?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Y.; Ampuero, J. P.

2017-12-01

While various modeling efforts have been conducted to reproduce subsets of observations of tremor and slow-slip events (SSE), a fundamental but yet unanswered question is whether slow slip is a cause or a result of tremor. Tremor is commonly regarded as driven by SSE. This view is mainly based on observations of SSE without detected tremors and on (frequency-limited) estimates of total tremor seismic moment being lower than 1% of their concomitant SSE moment. In previous studies we showed that models of heterogeneous faults, composed of seismic asperities embedded in an aseismic fault zone matrix, reproduce quantitatively the hierarchical patterns of tremor migration observed in Cascadia and Shikoku. To address the title question, we design two end-member models of a heterogeneous fault. In the SSE-driven-tremor model, slow slip events are spontaneously generated by the matrix (even in the absence of seismic asperities) and drive tremor. In the Tremor-driven-SSE model the matrix is stable (it slips steadily in the absence of asperities) and slow slip events result from the collective behavior of tremor asperities interacting via transient creep (local afterslip fronts). We study these two end-member models through 2D quasi-dynamic multi-cycle simulations of faults governed by rate-and-state friction with heterogeneous frictional properties and effective normal stress, using the earthquake simulation software QDYN (https://zenodo.org/record/322459). We find that both models reproduce first-order observations of SSE and tremor and have very low seismic to aseismic moment ratio. However, the Tremor-driven-SSE model assumes a simpler rheology than the SSE-driven-tremor model and matches key observations better and without fine tuning, including the ratio of propagation speeds of forward SSE and rapid tremor reversals and the decay of inter-event times of Low Frequency Earthquakes. These modeling results indicate that, in contrast to a common view, SSE could be a result of tremor activity. We also find that, despite important interactions between asperities, tremor activity rates are proportional to the underlying aseismic slip rate, supporting an approach to estimate SSE properties with high spatial-temporal resolutions via tremor activity.

El Niño and coral larval dispersal across the eastern Pacific marine barrier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, S.; Baums, I. B.; Paris, C. B.; Ridgwell, A.; Kessler, W. S.; Hendy, E. J.

2016-08-01

More than 5,000 km separates the frequently disturbed coral reefs of the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) from western sources of population replenishment. It has been hypothesized that El Niño events facilitate eastward dispersal across this East Pacific Barrier (EPB). Here we present a biophysical coral larval dispersal model driven by 14.5 years of high-resolution surface ocean current data including the extreme 1997-1998 El Niño. We find no eastward cross-EPB connections over this period, which implies that ETP coral populations decimated by the 1998 bleaching event can only have recovered from eastern Pacific sources, in congruence with genetic data. Instead, rare connections between eastern and central Pacific reefs are simulated in a westward direction. Significant complexity and variability in the surface flows transporting larvae mean that generalized upper-ocean circulation patterns are poor descriptors of inter-regional connectivity, complicating the assessment of how climate change will impact coral gene flow Pacific wide.

El Niño and coral larval dispersal across the eastern Pacific marine barrier

PubMed Central

Wood, S.; Baums, I. B.; Paris, C. B.; Ridgwell, A.; Kessler, W. S.; Hendy, E. J.

2016-01-01

More than 5,000 km separates the frequently disturbed coral reefs of the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) from western sources of population replenishment. It has been hypothesized that El Niño events facilitate eastward dispersal across this East Pacific Barrier (EPB). Here we present a biophysical coral larval dispersal model driven by 14.5 years of high-resolution surface ocean current data including the extreme 1997–1998 El Niño. We find no eastward cross-EPB connections over this period, which implies that ETP coral populations decimated by the 1998 bleaching event can only have recovered from eastern Pacific sources, in congruence with genetic data. Instead, rare connections between eastern and central Pacific reefs are simulated in a westward direction. Significant complexity and variability in the surface flows transporting larvae mean that generalized upper-ocean circulation patterns are poor descriptors of inter-regional connectivity, complicating the assessment of how climate change will impact coral gene flow Pacific wide. PMID:27550393

Risk and dynamics of unprecedented hot months in South East China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, Vikki; Dunstone, Nick J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Smith, Doug M.; Hardiman, Steven C.; Ren, Hong-Li; Lu, Bo; Belcher, Stephen E.

2018-06-01

The Yangtze region of South East China has experienced several extreme hot summer months in recent years. Such events can have devastating socio-economic impacts. We use a large ensemble of initialised climate simulations to assess the current chance of unprecedented hot summer months in the Yangtze River region. We find a 10% chance of an unprecedented hot summer month each year. Our simulations suggest that monthly mean temperatures up to 3 °C hotter than the current record are possible. The dynamics of these unprecedented extremes highlights the occurrence of a stationary atmospheric wave, the Silk Road Pattern, in a significant number of extreme hot events. We present evidence that this atmospheric wave is driven by variability in the Indian summer monsoon. Other extreme events are associated with a westward shift in the western North Pacific subtropical high. The most extreme simulated events exhibit combined characteristics of both the Silk Road Pattern and the shifted western North Pacific subtropical high.

A parallel algorithm for switch-level timing simulation on a hypercube multiprocessor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rao, Hariprasad Nannapaneni

1989-01-01

The parallel approach to speeding up simulation is studied, specifically the simulation of digital LSI MOS circuitry on the Intel iPSC/2 hypercube. The simulation algorithm is based on RSIM, an event driven switch-level simulator that incorporates a linear transistor model for simulating digital MOS circuits. Parallel processing techniques based on the concepts of Virtual Time and rollback are utilized so that portions of the circuit may be simulated on separate processors, in parallel for as large an increase in speed as possible. A partitioning algorithm is also developed in order to subdivide the circuit for parallel processing.

Simulations of cloud-radiation interaction using large-scale forcing derived from the CINDY/DYNAMO northern sounding array

DOE PAGES

Wang, Shuguang; Sobel, Adam H.; Fridlind, Ann; ...

2015-09-25

The recently completed CINDY/DYNAMO field campaign observed two Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) events in the equatorial Indian Ocean from October to December 2011. Prior work has indicated that the moist static energy anomalies in these events grew and were sustained to a significant extent by radiative feedbacks. We present here a study of radiative fluxes and clouds in a set of cloud-resolving simulations of these MJO events. The simulations are driven by the large scale forcing dataset derived from the DYNAMO northern sounding array observations, and carried out in a doubly-periodic domain using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. simulatedmore » cloud properties and radiative fluxes are compared to those derived from the S-Polka radar and satellite observations. Furthermore, to accommodate the uncertainty in simulated cloud microphysics, a number of single moment (1M) and double moment (2M) microphysical schemes in the WRF model are tested.« less

Hierarchical Engine for Large-scale Infrastructure Co-Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

2017-04-24

HELICS is designed to support very-large-scale (100,000+ federates) cosimulations with off-the-shelf power-system, communication, market, and end-use tools. Other key features include cross platform operating system support, the integration of both event driven (e.g., packetized communication) and time-series (e.g., power flow) simulations, and the ability to co-iterate among federates to ensure physical model convergence at each time step.

Evaluation of Probable Maximum Precipitation and Flood under Climate Change in the 21st Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gangrade, S.; Kao, S. C.; Rastogi, D.; Ashfaq, M.; Naz, B. S.; Kabela, E.; Anantharaj, V. G.; Singh, N.; Preston, B. L.; Mei, R.

2016-12-01

Critical infrastructures are potentially vulnerable to extreme hydro-climatic events. Under a warming environment, the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation and flood are likely to increase enhancing the needs to more accurately quantify the risks due to climate change. In this study, we utilized an integrated modeling framework that includes the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model and a high resolution distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM) to simulate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and flood (PMF) events over Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin. A total of 120 storms were selected to simulate moisture maximized PMP under different meteorological forcings, including historical storms driven by Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and baseline (1981-2010), near term future (2021-2050) and long term future (2071-2100) storms driven by Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) under Representative Concentrations Pathway 8.5 emission scenario. We also analyzed the sensitivity of PMF to various antecedent hydrologic conditions such as initial soil moisture conditions and tested different compulsive approaches. Overall, a statistical significant increase is projected for future PMP and PMF, mainly attributed to the increase of background air temperature. The ensemble of simulated PMP and PMF along with their sensitivity allows us to better quantify the potential risks associated with hydro-climatic extreme events on critical energy-water infrastructures such as major hydropower dams and nuclear power plants.

A generalized linear integrate-and-fire neural model produces diverse spiking behaviors.

PubMed

Mihalaş, Stefan; Niebur, Ernst

2009-03-01

For simulations of neural networks, there is a trade-off between the size of the network that can be simulated and the complexity of the model used for individual neurons. In this study, we describe a generalization of the leaky integrate-and-fire model that produces a wide variety of spiking behaviors while still being analytically solvable between firings. For different parameter values, the model produces spiking or bursting, tonic, phasic or adapting responses, depolarizing or hyperpolarizing after potentials and so forth. The model consists of a diagonalizable set of linear differential equations describing the time evolution of membrane potential, a variable threshold, and an arbitrary number of firing-induced currents. Each of these variables is modified by an update rule when the potential reaches threshold. The variables used are intuitive and have biological significance. The model's rich behavior does not come from the differential equations, which are linear, but rather from complex update rules. This single-neuron model can be implemented using algorithms similar to the standard integrate-and-fire model. It is a natural match with event-driven algorithms for which the firing times are obtained as a solution of a polynomial equation.

A Generalized Linear Integrate-and-Fire Neural Model Produces Diverse Spiking Behaviors

PubMed Central

Mihalaş, Ştefan; Niebur, Ernst

2010-01-01

For simulations of neural networks, there is a trade-off between the size of the network that can be simulated and the complexity of the model used for individual neurons. In this study, we describe a generalization of the leaky integrate-and-fire model that produces a wide variety of spiking behaviors while still being analytically solvable between firings. For different parameter values, the model produces spiking or bursting, tonic, phasic or adapting responses, depolarizing or hyperpolarizing after potentials and so forth. The model consists of a diagonalizable set of linear differential equations describing the time evolution of membrane potential, a variable threshold, and an arbitrary number of firing-induced currents. Each of these variables is modified by an update rule when the potential reaches threshold. The variables used are intuitive and have biological significance. The model’s rich behavior does not come from the differential equations, which are linear, but rather from complex update rules. This single-neuron model can be implemented using algorithms similar to the standard integrate-and-fire model. It is a natural match with event-driven algorithms for which the firing times are obtained as a solution of a polynomial equation. PMID:18928368

Simulation of metals transport and toxicity at a mine-impacted watershed: California Gulch, Colorado.

PubMed

Velleux, Mark L; Julien, Pierre Y; Rojas-Sanchez, Rosalia; Clements, William H; England, John F

2006-11-15

The transport and toxicity of metals at the California Gulch, Colorado mine-impacted watershed were simulated with a spatially distributed watershed model. Using a database of observations for the period 1984-2004, hydrology, sediment transport, and metals transport were simulated for a June 2003 calibration event and a September 2003 validation event. Simulated flow volumes were within approximately 10% of observed conditions. Observed ranges of total suspended solids, cadmium, copper, and zinc concentrations were also successfully simulated. The model was then used to simulate the potential impacts of a 1-in-100-year rainfall event. Driven by large flows and corresponding soil and sediment erosion for the 1-in-100-year event, estimated solids and metals export from the watershed is 10,000 metric tons for solids, 215 kg for Cu, 520 kg for Cu, and 15,300 kg for Zn. As expressed by the cumulative criterion unit (CCU) index, metals concentrations far exceed toxic effects thresholds, suggesting a high probability of toxic effects downstream of the gulch. More detailed Zn source analyses suggest that much of the Zn exported from the gulch originates from slag piles adjacent to the lower gulch floodplain and an old mining site located near the head of the lower gulch.

Driven fragmentation of granular gases.

PubMed

Cruz Hidalgo, Raúl; Pagonabarraga, Ignacio

2008-06-01

The dynamics of homogeneously heated granular gases which fragment due to particle collisions is analyzed. We introduce a kinetic model which accounts for correlations induced at the grain collisions and analyze both the kinetics and relevant distribution functions these systems develop. The work combines analytical and numerical studies based on direct simulation Monte Carlo calculations. A broad family of fragmentation probabilities is considered, and its implications for the system kinetics are discussed. We show that generically these driven materials evolve asymptotically into a dynamical scaling regime. If the fragmentation probability tends to a constant, the grain number diverges at a finite time, leading to a shattering singularity. If the fragmentation probability vanishes, then the number of grains grows monotonously as a power law. We consider different homogeneous thermostats and show that the kinetics of these systems depends weakly on both the grain inelasticity and driving. We observe that fragmentation plays a relevant role in the shape of the velocity distribution of the particles. When the fragmentation is driven by local stochastic events, the long velocity tail is essentially exponential independently of the heating frequency and the breaking rule. However, for a Lowe-Andersen thermostat, numerical evidence strongly supports the conjecture that the scaled velocity distribution follows a generalized exponential behavior f(c) approximately exp(-cn) , with n approximately 1.2 , regarding less the fragmentation mechanisms.

A 300-mV 220-nW event-driven ADC with real-time QRS detection for wearable ECG sensors.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiaoyang; Lian, Yong

2014-12-01

This paper presents an ultra-low-power event-driven analog-to-digital converter (ADC) with real-time QRS detection for wearable electrocardiogram (ECG) sensors in wireless body sensor network (WBSN) applications. Two QRS detection algorithms, pulse-triggered (PUT) and time-assisted PUT (t-PUT), are proposed based on the level-crossing events generated from the ADC. The PUT detector achieves 97.63% sensitivity and 97.33% positive prediction in simulation on the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia Database. The t-PUT improves the sensitivity and positive prediction to 97.76% and 98.59% respectively. Fabricated in 0.13 μm CMOS technology, the ADC with QRS detector consumes only 220 nW measured under 300 mV power supply, making it the first nanoWatt compact analog-to-information (A2I) converter with embedded QRS detector.

Real-time monitoring of Lévy flights in a single quantum system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Issler, M.; Höller, J.; Imamoǧlu, A.

2016-02-01

Lévy flights are random walks where the dynamics is dominated by rare events. Even though they have been studied in vastly different physical systems, their observation in a single quantum system has remained elusive. Here we analyze a periodically driven open central spin system and demonstrate theoretically that the dynamics of the spin environment exhibits Lévy flights. For the particular realization in a single-electron charged quantum dot driven by periodic resonant laser pulses, we use Monte Carlo simulations to confirm that the long waiting times between successive nuclear spin-flip events are governed by a power-law distribution; the corresponding exponent η =-3 /2 can be directly measured in real time by observing the waiting time distribution of successive photon emission events. Remarkably, the dominant intrinsic limitation of the scheme arising from nuclear quadrupole coupling can be minimized by adjusting the magnetic field or by implementing spin echo.

A Hybrid Adaptive Routing Algorithm for Event-Driven Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Figueiredo, Carlos M. S.; Nakamura, Eduardo F.; Loureiro, Antonio A. F.

2009-01-01

Routing is a basic function in wireless sensor networks (WSNs). For these networks, routing algorithms depend on the characteristics of the applications and, consequently, there is no self-contained algorithm suitable for every case. In some scenarios, the network behavior (traffic load) may vary a lot, such as an event-driven application, favoring different algorithms at different instants. This work presents a hybrid and adaptive algorithm for routing in WSNs, called Multi-MAF, that adapts its behavior autonomously in response to the variation of network conditions. In particular, the proposed algorithm applies both reactive and proactive strategies for routing infrastructure creation, and uses an event-detection estimation model to change between the strategies and save energy. To show the advantages of the proposed approach, it is evaluated through simulations. Comparisons with independent reactive and proactive algorithms show improvements on energy consumption. PMID:22423207

A hybrid adaptive routing algorithm for event-driven wireless sensor networks.

PubMed

Figueiredo, Carlos M S; Nakamura, Eduardo F; Loureiro, Antonio A F

2009-01-01

Routing is a basic function in wireless sensor networks (WSNs). For these networks, routing algorithms depend on the characteristics of the applications and, consequently, there is no self-contained algorithm suitable for every case. In some scenarios, the network behavior (traffic load) may vary a lot, such as an event-driven application, favoring different algorithms at different instants. This work presents a hybrid and adaptive algorithm for routing in WSNs, called Multi-MAF, that adapts its behavior autonomously in response to the variation of network conditions. In particular, the proposed algorithm applies both reactive and proactive strategies for routing infrastructure creation, and uses an event-detection estimation model to change between the strategies and save energy. To show the advantages of the proposed approach, it is evaluated through simulations. Comparisons with independent reactive and proactive algorithms show improvements on energy consumption.

Flexible Programmes in Higher Professional Education: Expert Validation of a Flexible Educational Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schellekens, Ad; Paas, Fred; Verbraeck, Alexander; van Merrienboer, Jeroen J. G.

2010-01-01

In a preceding case study, a process-focused demand-driven approach for organising flexible educational programmes in higher professional education (HPE) was developed. Operations management and instructional design contributed to designing a flexible educational model by means of discrete-event simulation. Educational experts validated the model…

Magnetic Flyer Facility Correlation and UGT Simulation

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-05-01

AND UGT SIMULATION (U) Kaman Sciences Corporation L ~ P.O. Box 7463 I Colorado Springs, Colcerado 80933 ý4 May 1978DC Final Report CONTRACT No. DNA O01...selected underground test ( UGT ) environment on 3DQP; and, (2) To correlate the magnetically driven flyer plate facilities of VKSC with those of the...tailored to matcb the pressure vs. time anid total impulse measurements obtained on UGT events. This matching of experi- mental data required considerable

Assessing regional climate simulations of the last 30 years (1982-2012) over Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khandu; Awange, Joseph L.; Anyah, Richard; Kuhn, Michael; Fukuda, Yoichi

2017-10-01

The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) River Basin presents a spatially diverse hydrological regime due to it's complex topography and escalating demand for freshwater resources. This presents a big challenge in applying the current state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs) for climate change impact studies in the GBM River Basin. In this study, several RCM simulations generated by RegCM4.4 and PRECIS are assessed for their seasonal and interannual variations, onset/withdrawal of the Indian monsoon, and long-term trends in precipitation and temperature from 1982 to 2012. The results indicate that in general, RegCM4.4 and PRECIS simulations appear to reasonably reproduce the mean seasonal distribution of precipitation and temperature across the GBM River Basin, although the two RCMs are integrated over a different domain size. On average, the RegCM4.4 simulations overestimate monsoon precipitation by {˜ }26 and {˜ }5% in the Ganges and Brahmaputra-Meghna River Basin, respectively, while PRECIS simulations underestimate (overestimate) the same by {˜ }7% ({˜ }16%). Both RegCM4.4 and PRECIS simulations indicate an intense cold bias (up to 10° C) in the Himalayas, and are generally stronger in the RegCM4.4 simulations. Additionally, they tend to produce high precipitation between April and May in the Ganges (RegCM4.4 simulations) and Brahmaputra-Meghna (PRECIS simulations) River Basins, resulting in early onset of the Indian monsoon in the Ganges River Basin. PRECIS simulations exhibit a delayed monsoon withdrawal in the Brahmaputra-Meghna River Basin. Despite large spatial variations in onset and withdrawal periods across the GBM River Basin, the basin-averaged results agree reasonably well with the observed periods. Although global climate model (GCM) driven simulations are generally poor in representing the interannual variability of precipitation and winter temperature variations, they tend to agree well with observed precipitation anomalies when driven by perfect boundary conditions. It is also seen that all GCM driven simulations feature significant positive surface temperature trends consistent with the observed datasets.

The Application of SNiPER to the JUNO Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Tao; Zou, Jiaheng; Li, Weidong; Deng, Ziyan; Fang, Xiao; Cao, Guofu; Huang, Xingtao; You, Zhengyun; JUNO Collaboration

2017-10-01

The JUNO (Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory) is a multipurpose neutrino experiment which is designed to determine neutrino mass hierarchy and precisely measure oscillation parameters. As one of the important systems, the JUNO offline software is being developed using the SNiPER software. In this proceeding, we focus on the requirements of JUNO simulation and present the working solution based on the SNiPER. The JUNO simulation framework is in charge of managing event data, detector geometries and materials, physics processes, simulation truth information etc. It glues physics generator, detector simulation and electronics simulation modules together to achieve a full simulation chain. In the implementation of the framework, many attractive characteristics of the SNiPER have been used, such as dynamic loading, flexible flow control, multiple event management and Python binding. Furthermore, additional efforts have been made to make both detector and electronics simulation flexible enough to accommodate and optimize different detector designs. For the Geant4-based detector simulation, each sub-detector component is implemented as a SNiPER tool which is a dynamically loadable and configurable plugin. So it is possible to select the detector configuration at runtime. The framework provides the event loop to drive the detector simulation and interacts with the Geant4 which is implemented as a passive service. All levels of user actions are wrapped into different customizable tools, so that user functions can be easily extended by just adding new tools. The electronics simulation has been implemented by following an event driven scheme. The SNiPER task component is used to simulate data processing steps in the electronics modules. The electronics and trigger are synchronized by triggered events containing possible physics signals. The JUNO simulation software has been released and is being used by the JUNO collaboration to do detector design optimization, event reconstruction algorithm development and physics sensitivity studies.

Event-Driven Simulation and Analysis of an Underwater Acoustic Local Area Network

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

Successful number of data packets % b. PSUP = Successful number of Utility packets % c. PSB = Successful number of byte Tx. % d. PSPRT = Number of sub...g. PFU = Number of failed utilities Tx failures with time log of failure % h. PTO = Number of Time-outs 55 function [PSDP,PSUP, PSB ,PSPRT,PFP,PFSP...transmitted PSB = 0 ; % Number of Bytes transmitted PSPRT = 0; % Number of sub-packets retransmitted PFP = 0; % Number of failed packets event PFSP

Global Response to Local Ionospheric Mass Ejection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, T. E.; Fok, M.-C.; Delcourt, D. C.; Slinker, S. P.; Fedder, J. A.

2010-01-01

We revisit a reported "Ionospheric Mass Ejection" using prior event observations to guide a global simulation of local ionospheric outflows, global magnetospheric circulation, and plasma sheet pressurization, and comparing our results with the observed global response. Our simulation framework is based on test particle motions in the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) global circulation model electromagnetic fields. The inner magnetosphere is simulated with the Comprehensive Ring Current Model (CRCM) of Fok and Wolf, driven by the transpolar potential developed by the LFM magnetosphere, and includes an embedded plasmaspheric simulation. Global circulation is stimulated using the observed solar wind conditions for the period 24-25 Sept 1998. This period begins with the arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection, initially with northward, but later with southward interplanetary magnetic field. Test particles are launched from the ionosphere with fluxes specified by local empirical relationships of outflow to electrodynamic and particle precipitation imposed by the MIlD simulation. Particles are tracked until they are lost from the system downstream or into the atmosphere, using the full equations of motion. Results are compared with the observed ring current and a simulation of polar and auroral wind outflows driven globally by solar wind dynamic pressure. We find good quantitative agreement with the observed ring current, and reasonable qualitative agreement with earlier simulation results, suggesting that the solar wind driven global simulation generates realistic energy dissipation in the ionosphere and that the Strangeway relations provide a realistic local outflow description.

Convection- and SASI-driven flows in parametrized models of core-collapse supernova explosions

DOE PAGES

Endeve, E.; Cardall, C. Y.; Budiardja, R. D.; ...

2016-01-21

We present initial results from three-dimensional simulations of parametrized core-collapse supernova (CCSN) explosions obtained with our astrophysical simulation code General Astrophysical Simulation System (GenASIS). We are interested in nonlinear flows resulting from neutrino-driven convection and the standing accretion shock instability (SASI) in the CCSN environment prior to and during the explosion. By varying parameters in our model that control neutrino heating and shock dissociation, our simulations result in convection-dominated and SASI-dominated evolution. We describe this initial set of simulation results in some detail. To characterize the turbulent flows in the simulations, we compute and compare velocity power spectra from convection-dominatedmore » and SASI-dominated (both non-exploding and exploding) models. When compared to SASI-dominated models, convection-dominated models exhibit significantly more power on small spatial scales.« less

Risk analysis based on hazards interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Trasforini, Eva; De Angeli, Silvia; Becker, Joost

2017-04-01

Despite an increasing need for open, transparent, and credible multi-hazard risk assessment methods, models, and tools, the availability of comprehensive risk information needed to inform disaster risk reduction is limited, and the level of interaction across hazards is not systematically analysed. Risk assessment methodologies for different hazards often produce risk metrics that are not comparable. Hazard interactions (consecutive occurrence two or more different events) are generally neglected, resulting in strongly underestimated risk assessment in the most exposed areas. This study presents cases of interaction between different hazards, showing how subsidence can affect coastal and river flood risk (Jakarta and Bandung, Indonesia) or how flood risk is modified after a seismic event (Italy). The analysis of well documented real study cases, based on a combination between Earth Observation and in-situ data, would serve as basis the formalisation of a multi-hazard methodology, identifying gaps and research frontiers. Multi-hazard risk analysis is performed through the RASOR platform (Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation Of Risk). A scenario-driven query system allow users to simulate future scenarios based on existing and assumed conditions, to compare with historical scenarios, and to model multi-hazard risk both before and during an event (www.rasor.eu).

Pseudo-global warming controls on the intensity and morphology of extreme convective storm events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trapp, R. J.

2015-12-01

This research seeks to answer the basic question of how current-day extreme convective storm events might be represented under future anthropogenic climate change. We adapt the "pseudo-global warming" (PGW) methodology employed by Lackmann (2013, 2015) and others, who have investigated flooding and tropical cyclone events under climate change. Here, we exploit coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM data contributed to the CMIP5 archive, and take the mean 3D atmospheric state simulated during May 1990-1999 and subtract it from that simulated during May 2090-2099. Such 3D changes in temperature, humidity, geopotential height, and winds are added to synoptic/meso-scale analyses (NAM-ANL) of specific events, and this modified atmospheric state is then used for initial and boundary conditions for real-data WRF model simulations of the events at high resolution. Comparison of an ensemble of these simulations with control (CTRL) simulations facilitates assessment of PGW effects. In contrast to the robust development of supercellular convection in our CTRL simulations, the combined effects of increased CIN and decreased forcing under PGW led to a failure of convection initiation in many of our ensemble members. Those members that had sufficient matching between the CIN and forcing tended to generate stronger convective updrafts than in the CTRL simulations, because of the relatively higher CAPE under PGW. And, the members with enhanced updrafts also tended to have enhanced vertical rotation. In fact, such mesocyclonic rotation and attendant supercellular morphology were even found in simulations that were driven with PGW-reduced environmental wind shear.

Recharge heterogeneity and high intensity rainfall events increase contamination risk for Mediterranean groundwater resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Andreas; Jasechko, Scott; Gleeson, Tom; Wada, Yoshihide; Andreo, Bartolomé; Barberá, Juan Antonio; Brielmann, Heike; Charlier, Jean-Baptiste; Darling, George; Filippini, Maria; Garvelmann, Jakob; Goldscheider, Nico; Kralik, Martin; Kunstmann, Harald; Ladouche, Bernard; Lange, Jens; Mudarra, Matías; Francisco Martín, José; Rimmer, Alon; Sanchez, Damián; Stumpp, Christine; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-04-01

Karst develops through the dissolution of carbonate rock and results in pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity of hydrological processes. Karst groundwater in Europe is a major source of fresh water contributing up to half of the total drinking water supply in some countries like Austria or Slovenia. Previous work showed that karstic recharge processes enhance and alter the sensitivity of recharge to climate variability. The enhanced preferential flow from the surface to the aquifer may be followed by enhanced risk of groundwater contamination. In this study we assess the contamination risk of karst aquifers over Europe and the Mediterranean using simulated transit time distributions. Using a new type of semi-distributed model that considers the spatial heterogeneity of karst hydraulic properties, we were able to simulate karstic groundwater recharge including its heterogeneous spatiotemporal dynamics. The model is driven by gridded daily climate data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Transit time distributions are calculated using virtual tracer experiments. We evaluated our simulations by independent information on transit times derived from observed time series of water isotopes of >70 karst springs over Europe. The simulations indicate that, compared to humid, mountain and desert regions, the Mediterranean region shows a stronger risk of contamination in Europe because preferential flow processes are most pronounced given thin soil layers and the seasonal abundance of high intensity rainfall events in autumn and winter. Our modelling approach includes strong simplifications and its results cannot easily be generalized but it still highlights that the combined effects of variable climate and heterogeneous catchment properties constitute a strong risk on water quality.

Feedforward Categorization on AER Motion Events Using Cortex-Like Features in a Spiking Neural Network.

PubMed

Zhao, Bo; Ding, Ruoxi; Chen, Shoushun; Linares-Barranco, Bernabe; Tang, Huajin

2015-09-01

This paper introduces an event-driven feedforward categorization system, which takes data from a temporal contrast address event representation (AER) sensor. The proposed system extracts bio-inspired cortex-like features and discriminates different patterns using an AER based tempotron classifier (a network of leaky integrate-and-fire spiking neurons). One of the system's most appealing characteristics is its event-driven processing, with both input and features taking the form of address events (spikes). The system was evaluated on an AER posture dataset and compared with two recently developed bio-inspired models. Experimental results have shown that it consumes much less simulation time while still maintaining comparable performance. In addition, experiments on the Mixed National Institute of Standards and Technology (MNIST) image dataset have demonstrated that the proposed system can work not only on raw AER data but also on images (with a preprocessing step to convert images into AER events) and that it can maintain competitive accuracy even when noise is added. The system was further evaluated on the MNIST dynamic vision sensor dataset (in which data is recorded using an AER dynamic vision sensor), with testing accuracy of 88.14%.

Tidal Disruption Events from Eccentric Nuclear Disks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wernke, Heather N.; Madigan, Ann-Marie

2018-04-01

Stars that get too close to a supermassive black hole are in danger of being tidally disrupted. Stellar two-body relaxation is commonly assumed to be the main driver of these events. Recent work has shown, however, that secular gravitational torques from eccentric nuclear disks can push stars to extreme eccentricities at much higher rates than predicted by two-body relaxation. This work did not include the effects of general relativity, however, which could quench secular torques via rapid apsidal precession. Here we show that, for a star in danger of disruption, general relativity acts on a timescale of less than an orbital period. This short timescale means that general relativity does not have enough time to have a major effect on the orbit. When driven by secular torques from eccentric nuclear disks, tidal disruption event rates are not affected by general relativity.

Input-driven versus turnover-driven controls of simulated changes in soil carbon due to land-use change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyawira, S. S.; Nabel, J. E. M. S.; Brovkin, V.; Pongratz, J.

2017-08-01

Historical changes in soil carbon associated with land-use change (LUC) result mainly from the changes in the quantity of litter inputs to the soil and the turnover of carbon in soils. We use a factor separation technique to assess how the input-driven and turnover-driven controls, as well as their synergies, have contributed to historical changes in soil carbon associated with LUC. We apply this approach to equilibrium simulations of present-day and pre-industrial land use performed using the dynamic global vegetation model JSBACH. Our results show that both the input-driven and turnover-driven changes generally contribute to a gain in soil carbon in afforested regions and a loss in deforested regions. However, in regions where grasslands have been converted to croplands, we find an input-driven loss that is partly offset by a turnover-driven gain, which stems from a decrease in the fire-related carbon losses. Omitting land management through crop and wood harvest substantially reduces the global losses through the input-driven changes. Our study thus suggests that the dominating control of soil carbon losses is via the input-driven changes, which are more directly accessible to human management than the turnover-driven ones.

Global ionospheric and thermospheric response to the 5 April 2010 geomagnetic storm: An integrated data-model investigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, G.; Hagan, M. E.; Häusler, K.; Doornbos, E.; Bruinsma, S.; Anderson, B. J.; Korth, H.

2014-12-01

We present a case study of the 5 April 2010 geomagnetic storm using observations and numerical simulations. The event was driven by a fast-moving coronal mass ejection and despite being a moderate storm with a minimum Dst near -50 nT, the event exhibited elevated thermospheric density and surges of traveling atmospheric disturbances (TADs) more typically seen during major storms. The Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIMEGCM) was used to assess how these features were generated and developed during the storm. The model simulations gave rise to TADs that were highly nonuniform with strong latitude and longitude/local time dependence. The TAD phase speeds ranged from 640 m/s to 780 m/s at 400 km and were ~5% lower at 300 km and approximately 10-15% lower at 200 km. In the lower thermosphere around 100 km, the TAD signatures were nearly unrecognizable due to much stronger influence of upward propagating atmospheric tides. The thermosphere simulation results were compared to observations available from the Gravity Field and Steady-State Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE), CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites. Comparison with GOCE data shows that the TIMEGCM reproduced the cross-track winds over the polar region very well. The model-data comparison also revealed some differences, specifically, the simulations underestimated neutral mass density in the upper thermosphere above ~300 km and overestimated the storm recovery tome by 6 h. These discrepancies indicate that some heating or circulation dynamics and potentially cooling processes are not fully represented in the simulations, and also that updates to some parameterization schemes in the TIMEGCM are warranted.

Elucidating the electron transport in semiconductors via Monte Carlo simulations: an inquiry-driven learning path for engineering undergraduates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persano Adorno, Dominique; Pizzolato, Nicola; Fazio, Claudio

2015-09-01

Within the context of higher education for science or engineering undergraduates, we present an inquiry-driven learning path aimed at developing a more meaningful conceptual understanding of the electron dynamics in semiconductors in the presence of applied electric fields. The electron transport in a nondegenerate n-type indium phosphide bulk semiconductor is modelled using a multivalley Monte Carlo approach. The main characteristics of the electron dynamics are explored under different values of the driving electric field, lattice temperature and impurity density. Simulation results are presented by following a question-driven path of exploration, starting from the validation of the model and moving up to reasoned inquiries about the observed characteristics of electron dynamics. Our inquiry-driven learning path, based on numerical simulations, represents a viable example of how to integrate a traditional lecture-based teaching approach with effective learning strategies, providing science or engineering undergraduates with practical opportunities to enhance their comprehension of the physics governing the electron dynamics in semiconductors. Finally, we present a general discussion about the advantages and disadvantages of using an inquiry-based teaching approach within a learning environment based on semiconductor simulations.

Laboratory Study on Disconnection Events in Comets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yan-Fei; Li, Yu-Tong; Wang, Wei-Min; Yuan, Da-Wei; et al.

2018-01-01

When comets interacting with solar wind, straight and narrow plasma tails will be often formed. The most remarkable phenomenon of the plasma tails is the disconnection event, in which a plasma tail is uprooted from the comet's head and moves away from the comet. In this paper, the interaction process between a comet and solar wind is simulated by using a laser-driven plasma cloud to hit a cylinder obstacle. A disconnected plasma tail is observed behind the obstacle by optical shadowgraphy and interferometry. Our particle-in-cell simulations show that the diference in thermal velocity between ions and electrons induces an electrostatic field behind the obstacle. This field can lead to the convergence of ions to the central region, resulting in a disconnected plasma tail. This electrostatic field-induced model may be a possible explanation for the disconnection events of cometary tails.

SIMULATING SUB-DECADAL CHANNEL MORPHOLOGIC CHANGE IN EPHEMERAL STREAM NETWORKS

EPA Science Inventory

A distributed watershed model was modified to simulate cumulative channel morphologic
change from multiple runoff events in ephemeral stream networks. The model incorporates the general design of the event-based Kinematic Runoff and" Erosion Model (KINEROS), which describes t...

Numerical investigations with WRF about atmospheric features leading to heavy precipitation and flood events over the Central Andes' complex topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamuriano, Marcelo; Brönnimann, Stefan

2017-04-01

It's known that some extremes such as heavy rainfalls, flood events, heatwaves and droughts depend largely on the atmospheric circulation and local features. Bolivia is no exception and while the large scale dynamics over the Amazon has been largely investigated, the local features driven by the Andes Cordillera and the Altiplano is still poorly documented. New insights on the regional atmospheric dynamics preceding heavy precipitation and flood events over the complex topography of the Andes-Amazon interface are added through numerical investigations of several case events: flash flood episodes over La Paz city and the extreme 2014 flood in south-western Amazon basin. Large scale atmospheric water transport is dynamically downscaled in order to take into account the complex topography forcing and local features as modulators of these events. For this purpose, a series of high resolution numerical experiments with the WRF-ARW model is conducted using various global datasets and parameterizations. While several mechanisms have been suggested to explain the dynamics of these episodes, they have not been tested yet through numerical modelling experiments. The simulations captures realistically the local water transport and the terrain influence over atmospheric circulation, even though the precipitation intensity is in general unrealistic. Nevertheless, the results show that Dynamical Downscaling over the tropical Andes' complex terrain provides useful meteorological data for a variety of studies and contributes to a better understanding of physical processes involved in the configuration of these events.

Origin of coronal mass ejection and magnetic cloud: Thermal or magnetic driven?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Gong-Liang; Wang, Chi; He, Shuang-Hua

1995-01-01

A fundamental problem in Solar-Terrestrial Physics is the origin of the solar transient plasma output, which includes the coronal mass ejection and its interplanetary manifestation, e.g. the magnetic cloud. The traditional blast wave model resulted from solar thermal pressure impulse has faced with challenge during recent years. In the MHD numerical simulation study of CME, the authors find that the basic feature of the asymmetrical event on 18 August 1980 can be reproduced neither by a thermal pressure nor by a speed increment. Also, the thermal pressure model fails in simulating the interplanetary structure with low thermal pressure and strong magnetic field strength, representative of a typical magnetic cloud. Instead, the numerical simulation results are in favor of the magnetic field expansion as the likely mechanism for both the asymmetrical CME event and magnetic cloud.

Future equivalent of 2010 Russian heatwave intensified by weakening soil moisture constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmijn, L. M.; van der Schrier, G.; Bintanja, R.; Barkmeijer, J.; Sterl, A.; Hazeleger, W.

2018-05-01

The 2010 heatwave in eastern Europe and Russia ranks among the hottest events ever recorded in the region1,2. The excessive summer warmth was related to an anomalously widespread and intense quasi-stationary anticyclonic circulation anomaly over western Russia, reinforced by depletion of spring soil moisture1,3-5. At present, high soil moisture levels and strong surface evaporation generally tend to cap maximum summer temperatures6-8, but these constraints may weaken under future warming9,10. Here, we use a data assimilation technique in which future climate model simulations are nudged to realistically represent the persistence and strength of the 2010 blocked atmospheric flow. In the future, synoptically driven extreme warming under favourable large-scale atmospheric conditions will no longer be suppressed by abundant soil moisture, leading to a disproportional intensification of future heatwaves. This implies that future mid-latitude heatwaves analogous to the 2010 event will become even more extreme than previously thought, with temperature extremes increasing by 8.4 °C over western Russia. Thus, the socioeconomic impacts of future heatwaves will probably be amplified beyond current estimates.

A predictive model of nuclear power plant crew decision-making and performance in a dynamic simulation environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coyne, Kevin Anthony

The safe operation of complex systems such as nuclear power plants requires close coordination between the human operators and plant systems. In order to maintain an adequate level of safety following an accident or other off-normal event, the operators often are called upon to perform complex tasks during dynamic situations with incomplete information. The safety of such complex systems can be greatly improved if the conditions that could lead operators to make poor decisions and commit erroneous actions during these situations can be predicted and mitigated. The primary goal of this research project was the development and validation of a cognitive model capable of simulating nuclear plant operator decision-making during accident conditions. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment methods can improve the prediction of human error events by providing rich contextual information and an explicit consideration of feedback arising from man-machine interactions. The Accident Dynamics Simulator paired with the Information, Decision, and Action in a Crew context cognitive model (ADS-IDAC) shows promise for predicting situational contexts that might lead to human error events, particularly knowledge driven errors of commission. ADS-IDAC generates a discrete dynamic event tree (DDET) by applying simple branching rules that reflect variations in crew responses to plant events and system status changes. Branches can be generated to simulate slow or fast procedure execution speed, skipping of procedure steps, reliance on memorized information, activation of mental beliefs, variations in control inputs, and equipment failures. Complex operator mental models of plant behavior that guide crew actions can be represented within the ADS-IDAC mental belief framework and used to identify situational contexts that may lead to human error events. This research increased the capabilities of ADS-IDAC in several key areas. The ADS-IDAC computer code was improved to support additional branching events and provide a better representation of the IDAC cognitive model. An operator decision-making engine capable of responding to dynamic changes in situational context was implemented. The IDAC human performance model was fully integrated with a detailed nuclear plant model in order to realistically simulate plant accident scenarios. Finally, the improved ADS-IDAC model was calibrated, validated, and updated using actual nuclear plant crew performance data. This research led to the following general conclusions: (1) A relatively small number of branching rules are capable of efficiently capturing a wide spectrum of crew-to-crew variabilities. (2) Compared to traditional static risk assessment methods, ADS-IDAC can provide a more realistic and integrated assessment of human error events by directly determining the effect of operator behaviors on plant thermal hydraulic parameters. (3) The ADS-IDAC approach provides an efficient framework for capturing actual operator performance data such as timing of operator actions, mental models, and decision-making activities.

A Comparative Study of Shock Structures for the Halloween 2003 and the 23 July 2012 CME Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, C. C.; Liou, K.

2015-12-01

Interplanetary (IP) shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) play an important role in space weather. For example, solar energetic particles are accelerated at the shock and storm sudden commencements are produced by the impingement of the Earth by the shocks. Here, we study shocks associated with two major CME events - the Halloween 2003 and the 23 July 2012 CME events, using a three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamics model (H3DMHD). The H3DMHD (Wu et al. 2007, JGR) combines the kinematic solar wind model (HAF) for regions near the solar surface (2.5-18 Rs) and a 3D magnetohydrodynamics model (Han et al. 1988), which takes output from HAF at 18 Rs and propagates outward up to 1.7 AU. The H3DMHD code has been fully tested and is capable of simulating disturbances propagating in the solar wind. We will focus on the temporal and spatial structure of the CME-driven shocks, including the shock type and strength.

Laboratory simulation of volcano seismicity.

PubMed

Benson, Philip M; Vinciguerra, Sergio; Meredith, Philip G; Young, R Paul

2008-10-10

The physical processes generating seismicity within volcanic edifices are highly complex and not fully understood. We report results from a laboratory experiment in which basalt from Mount Etna volcano (Italy) was deformed and fractured. The experiment was monitored with an array of transducers around the sample to permit full-waveform capture, location, and analysis of microseismic events. Rapid post-failure decompression of the water-filled pore volume and damage zone triggered many low-frequency events, analogous to volcanic long-period seismicity. The low frequencies were associated with pore fluid decompression and were located in the damage zone in the fractured sample; these events exhibited a weak component of shear (double-couple) slip, consistent with fluid-driven events occurring beneath active volcanoes.

The impact of user- and system-initiated personalization on the user experience at large sports events.

PubMed

Sun, Xu; May, Andrew; Wang, Qingfeng

2016-05-01

This article describes an experimental study investigating the impact on user experience of two approaches of personalization of content provided on a mobile device, for spectators at large sports events. A lab-based experiment showed that a system-driven approach to personalization was generally preferable, but that there were advantages to retaining some user control over the process. Usability implications for a hybrid approach, and design implications are discussed, with general support for countermeasures designed to overcome recognised limitations of adaptive systems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Drift wave turbulence simulations in LAPD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popovich, P.; Umansky, M.; Carter, T. A.; Auerbach, D. W.; Friedman, B.; Schaffner, D.; Vincena, S.

2009-11-01

We present numerical simulations of turbulence in LAPD plasmas using the 3D electromagnetic code BOUT (BOUndary Turbulence). BOUT solves a system of fluid moment equations in a general toroidal equlibrium geometry near the plasma boundary. The underlying assumptions for the validity of the fluid model are well satisfied for drift waves in LAPD plasmas (typical plasma parameters ne˜1x10^12cm-3, Te˜10eV, and B ˜1kG), which makes BOUT a perfect tool for simulating LAPD. We have adapted BOUT for the cylindrical geometry of LAPD and have extended the model to include the background flows required for simulations of recent bias-driven rotation experiments. We have successfully verified the code for several linear instabilities, including resistive drift waves, Kelvin-Helmholtz and rotation-driven interchange. We will discuss first non-linear simulations and quasi-stationary solutions with self-consistent plasma flows and saturated density profiles.

Mechanisms of Diurnal Precipitation over the United States Great Plains: A Cloud-Resolving Model Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, M.-I.; Choi, I.; Tao, W.-K.; Schubert, S. D.; Kang, I.-K.

2010-01-01

The mechanisms of summertime diurnal precipitation in the US Great Plains were examined with the two-dimensional (2D) Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud-resolving model (CRM). The model was constrained by the observed large-scale background state and surface flux derived from the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program s Intensive Observing Period (IOP) data at the Southern Great Plains (SGP). The model, when continuously-forced by realistic surface flux and large-scale advection, simulates reasonably well the temporal evolution of the observed rainfall episodes, particularly for the strongly forced precipitation events. However, the model exhibits a deficiency for the weakly forced events driven by diurnal convection. Additional tests were run with the GCE model in order to discriminate between the mechanisms that determine daytime and nighttime convection. In these tests, the model was constrained with the same repeating diurnal variation in the large-scale advection and/or surface flux. The results indicate that it is primarily the surface heat and moisture flux that is responsible for the development of deep convection in the afternoon, whereas the large-scale upward motion and associated moisture advection play an important role in preconditioning nocturnal convection. In the nighttime, high clouds are continuously built up through their interaction and feedback with long-wave radiation, eventually initiating deep convection from the boundary layer. Without these upper-level destabilization processes, the model tends to produce only daytime convection in response to boundary layer heating. This study suggests that the correct simulation of the diurnal variation in precipitation requires that the free-atmospheric destabilization mechanisms resolved in the CRM simulation must be adequately parameterized in current general circulation models (GCMs) many of which are overly sensitive to the parameterized boundary layer heating.

Episodic Future Thinking in Generalized Anxiety Disorder

PubMed Central

Wu, Jade Q.; Szpunar, Karl K.; Godovich, Sheina A.; Schacter, Daniel L.; Hofmann, Stefan G.

2015-01-01

Research on future-oriented cognition in generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) has primarily focused on worry, while less is known about the role of episodic future thinking (EFT), an imagery-based cognitive process. To characterize EFT in this disorder, we used the experimental recombination procedure, in which 21 GAD and 19 healthy participants simulated positive, neutral and negative novel future events either once or repeatedly, and rated their phenomenological experience of EFT. Results showed that healthy controls spontaneously generated more detailed EFT over repeated simulations. Both groups found EFT easier to generate after repeated simulations, except when GAD participants simulated positive events. They also perceived higher plausibility of negative—not positive or neutral—future events than did controls. These results demonstrate a negativity bias in GAD individuals’ episodic future cognition, and suggest their relative deficit in generating vivid EFT. We discuss implications for the theory and treatment of GAD. PMID:26398003

NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF KELVIN–HELMHOLTZ INSTABILITY: A TWO-DIMENSIONAL PARAMETRIC STUDY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tian, Chunlin; Chen, Yao, E-mail: chunlin.tian@sdu.edu.cn

2016-06-10

Using two-dimensional simulations, we numerically explore the dependences of Kelvin–Helmholtz (KH) instability upon various physical parameters, including viscosity, the width of the sheared layer, flow speed, and magnetic field strength. In most cases, a multi-vortex phase exists between the initial growth phase and the final single-vortex phase. The parametric study shows that the evolutionary properties, such as phase duration and vortex dynamics, are generally sensitive to these parameters, except in certain regimes. An interesting result is that for supersonic flows, the phase durations and saturation of velocity growth approach constant values asymptotically as the sonic Mach number increases. We confirmmore » that the linear coupling between magnetic field and KH modes is negligible if the magnetic field is weak enough. The morphological behavior suggests that the multi-vortex coalescence might be driven by the underlying wave–wave interaction. Based on these results, we present a preliminary discussion of several events observed in the solar corona. The numerical models need to be further improved to perform a practical diagnostic of the coronal plasma properties.« less

El Nino - La Nina events simulated with Cane and Zebiak`s model and observed with satellite or in situ data. Part I: Model data comparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perigaud C.; Dewitte, B.

The Zebiak and Cane model is used in its {open_quotes}uncoupled mode,{close_quotes} meaning that the oceanic model component is driven by the Florida State University (FSU) wind stress anomalies over 1980-93 to simulate sea surface temperature anomalies, and these are used in the atmospheric model component to generate wind anomalies. Simulations are compared with data derived from FSU winds, International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project cloud convection, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer SST, Geosat sea level, 20{degrees}C isotherm depth derived from an expendable bathythermograph, and current velocities estimated from drifters or current-meter moorings. Forced by the simulated SST, the atmospheric model ismore » fairly successful in reproducing the observed westerlies during El Nino events. The model fails to simulate the easterlies during La Nina 1988. The simulated forcing of the atmosphere is in very poor agreement with the heating derived from cloud convection data. Similarly, the model is fairly successful in reproducing the warm anomalies during El Nino events. However, it fails to simulate the observed cold anomalies. Simulated variations of thermocline depth agree reasonably well with observations. The model simulates zonal current anomalies that are reversing at a dominant 9-month frequency. Projecting altimetric observations on Kelvin and Rossby waves provides an estimate of zonal current anomalies, which is consistent with the ones derived from drifters or from current meter moorings. Unlike the simulated ones, the observed zonal current anomalies reverse from eastward during El Nino events to westward during La Nina events. The simulated 9-month oscillations correspond to a resonant mode of the basin. They can be suppressed by cancelling the wave reflection at the boundaries, or they can be attenuated by increasing the friction in the ocean model. 58 refs., 14 figs., 6 tabs.« less

Predicting analysis time in events-driven clinical trials using accumulating time-to-event surrogate information.

PubMed

Wang, Jianming; Ke, Chunlei; Yu, Zhinuan; Fu, Lei; Dornseif, Bruce

2016-05-01

For clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints, predicting the accrual of the events of interest with precision is critical in determining the timing of interim and final analyses. For example, overall survival (OS) is often chosen as the primary efficacy endpoint in oncology studies, with planned interim and final analyses at a pre-specified number of deaths. Often, correlated surrogate information, such as time-to-progression (TTP) and progression-free survival, are also collected as secondary efficacy endpoints. It would be appealing to borrow strength from the surrogate information to improve the precision of the analysis time prediction. Currently available methods in the literature for predicting analysis timings do not consider utilizing the surrogate information. In this article, using OS and TTP as an example, a general parametric model for OS and TTP is proposed, with the assumption that disease progression could change the course of the overall survival. Progression-free survival, related both to OS and TTP, will be handled separately, as it can be derived from OS and TTP. The authors seek to develop a prediction procedure using a Bayesian method and provide detailed implementation strategies under certain assumptions. Simulations are performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. An application to a real study is also provided. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bottom currents and sediment transport in Long Island Sound: A modeling study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Signell, R.P.; List, J.H.; Farris, A.S.

2000-01-01

A high resolution (300-400 m grid spacing), process oriented modeling study was undertaken to elucidate the physical processes affecting the characteristics and distribution of sea-floor sedimentary environments in Long Island Sound. Simulations using idealized forcing and high-resolution bathymetry were performed using a three-dimensional circulation model ECOM (Blumberg and Mellor, 1987) and a stationary shallow water wave model HISWA (Holthuijsen et al., 1989). The relative contributions of tide-, density-, wind- and wave-driven bottom currents are assessed and related to observed characteristics of the sea-floor environments, and simple bedload sediment transport simulations are performed. The fine grid spacing allows features with scales of several kilometers to be resolved. The simulations clearly show physical processes that affect the observed sea-floor characteristics at both regional and local scales. Simulations of near-bottom tidal currents reveal a strong gradient in the funnel-shaped eastern part of the Sound, which parallels an observed gradient in sedimentary environments from erosion or nondeposition, through bedload transport and sediment sorting, to fine-grained deposition. A simulation of estuarine flow driven by the along-axis gradient in salinity shows generally westward bottom currents of 2-4 cm/s that are locally enhanced to 6-8 cm/s along the axial depression of the Sound. Bottom wind-driven currents flow downwind along the shallow margins of the basin, but flow against the wind in the deeper regions. These bottom flows (in opposition to the wind) are strongest in the axial depression and add to the estuarine flow when winds are from the west. The combination of enhanced bottom currents due to both estuarine circulation and the prevailing westerly winds provide an explanation for the relatively coarse sediments found along parts of the axial depression. Climatological simulations of wave-driven bottom currents show that frequent high-energy events occur along the shallow margins of the Sound, explaining the occurrence of relatively coarse sediments in these regions. Bedload sediment transport calculations show that the estuarine circulation coupled with the oscillatory tidal currents result in a net westward transport of sand in much of the eastern Sound. Local departures from this regional westward trend occur around topographic and shoreline irregularities, and there is strong predicted convergence of bedload transport over most of the large, linear sand ridges in the eastern Sound, providing a mechanism which prevents their decay. The strong correlation between the near-bottom current intensity based on the model results and the sediment response, as indicated by the distribution of sedimentary environments, provides a framework for predicting the long-term effects of anthropogenic activities.

Projected changes to rain-on-snow events over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, Dae Il; Sushama, Laxmi

2016-04-01

Rain-on-snow (ROS) events have significant impacts on cold region ecosystems and water-related natural hazards, and therefore it is very important to assess how this hydro-meteorological phenomenon will evolve in a changing climate. This study evaluates the changes in ROS characteristics (i.e., frequency, amounts, and runoff) for the future 2041-2070 period with respect to the current 1976-2005 period over North America using six simulations, based on two Canadian RCMs, driven by two driving GCMs for RCP4.5 and 8.5 emission pathways. Projected changes to extreme runoff caused by the changes of the ROS characteristics are also evaluated. All simulations suggest general increases in ROS days in late autumn, winter, and early spring periods for most Canadian regions and northwestern USA for the future period, due to an increase in rain days in a warmer climate. Increases in the future ROS amounts are projected mainly due to an increase in ROS days, although increases in precipitation intensity also contributes to the future increases. Future ROS runoff is expected to increase more than future ROS amounts during snowmelt months as ROS events usually enhance runoff, given the land state and asociated reduced soil infiltration rate and also due to the faster snowmelt rate occuring during these events. The simulations also show that ROS events usually lead to extreme runoff over most of Canada and north-western and -central USA in the January-May snowmelt months for the current period and these show no significant changes in the future climate. However, the future ROS to total runoff ratio will significantly decrease for western and eastern Canada as well as north-western USA for these months, due to an overall increase of the fraction of direct snowmelt and rainfall generated runoff in a warmer climate. These results indicate the difficulties of flood risk and water resource managements in the future, particularly in Canada and north-western and -central USA, requiring more in depth studies for these regions to facilitate appropriate adaptation measures.

Application of Petri Nets in Bone Remodeling

PubMed Central

Li, Lingxi; Yokota, Hiroki

2009-01-01

Understanding a mechanism of bone remodeling is a challenging task for both life scientists and model builders, since this highly interactive and nonlinear process can seldom be grasped by simple intuition. A set of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) have been built for simulating bone formation as well as bone resorption. Although solving ODEs numerically can provide useful predictions for dynamical behaviors in a continuous time frame, an actual bone remodeling process in living tissues is driven by discrete events of molecular and cellular interactions. Thus, an event-driven tool such as Petri nets (PNs), which may dynamically and graphically mimic individual molecular collisions or cellular interactions, seems to augment the existing ODE-based systems analysis. Here, we applied PNs to expand the ODE-based approach and examined discrete, dynamical behaviors of key regulatory molecules and bone cells. PNs have been used in many engineering areas, but their application to biological systems needs to be explored. Our PN model was based on 8 ODEs that described an osteoprotegerin linked molecular pathway consisting of 4 types of bone cells. The models allowed us to conduct both qualitative and quantitative evaluations and evaluate homeostatic equilibrium states. The results support that application of PN models assists understanding of an event-driven bone remodeling mechanism using PN-specific procedures such as places, transitions, and firings. PMID:19838338

The Multi-dimensional Character of Core-collapse Supernovae

DOE PAGES

Hix, W. R.; Lentz, E. J.; Bruenn, S. W.; ...

2016-03-01

Core-collapse supernovae, the culmination of massive stellar evolution, are spectacular astronomical events and the principle actors in the story of our elemental origins. Our understanding of these events, while still incomplete, centers around a neutrino-driven central engine that is highly hydrodynamically unstable. Increasingly sophisticated simulations reveal a shock that stalls for hundreds of milliseconds before reviving. Though brought back to life by neutrino heating, the development of the supernova explosion is inextricably linked to multi-dimensional fluid flows. In this paper, the outcomes of three-dimensional simulations that include sophisticated nuclear physics and spectral neutrino transport are juxtaposed to learn about themore » nature of the three-dimensional fluid flow that shapes the explosion. Comparison is also made between the results of simulations in spherical symmetry from several groups, to give ourselves confidence in the understanding derived from this juxtaposition.« less

Sensitivity of the WRF model to the lower boundary in an extreme precipitation event - Madeira island case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teixeira, J. C.; Carvalho, A. C.; Carvalho, M. J.; Luna, T.; Rocha, A.

2014-08-01

The advances in satellite technology in recent years have made feasible the acquisition of high-resolution information on the Earth's surface. Examples of such information include elevation and land use, which have become more detailed. Including this information in numerical atmospheric models can improve their results in simulating lower boundary forced events, by providing detailed information on their characteristics. Consequently, this work aims to study the sensitivity of the weather research and forecast (WRF) model to different topography as well as land-use simulations in an extreme precipitation event. The test case focused on a topographically driven precipitation event over the island of Madeira, which triggered flash floods and mudslides in the southern parts of the island. Difference fields between simulations were computed, showing that the change in the data sets produced statistically significant changes to the flow, the planetary boundary layer structure and precipitation patterns. Moreover, model results show an improvement in model skill in the windward region for precipitation and in the leeward region for wind, in spite of the non-significant enhancement in the overall results with higher-resolution data sets of topography and land use.

Input-driven versus turnover-driven controls of simulated changes in soil carbon due to land-use change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyawira, Sylvia; Nabel, Julia; Brovkin, Victor; Pongratz, Julia

2017-04-01

Modelling studies estimate a global loss in soil carbon caused by land-use changes (LUCs) over the last century. Although it is known that this loss stems from the changes in quantity of litter inputs from the vegetation to the soil (input-driven) and the changes in turnover of carbon in the soil (turnover-driven) associated with LUC, the individual contribution of these two controls to the total changes have not been assessed. Using the dynamic global vegetation model JSBACH, we apply a factor separation approach to isolate the contribution of the input-driven and turnover-driven changes, as well as their synergies, to the total changes in soil carbon from LUC. To assess how land management through crop and wood harvest influences the controls, we compare our results for simulations with and without land management. Our results reveal that for the afforested regions both the input-driven and turnover-driven changes generally result in soil carbon gain, whereas deforested regions exhibit a loss. However, for regions where croplands have increased at the expense of grasslands and pastures, the input-driven changes result in a loss that is partly offset by a gain via the turnover-driven changes. This gain stems from a decrease in the fire-related carbon losses when grasslands or pastures are replaced with croplands. Omitting land management reduces the carbon losses in regions where natural vegetation has been converted to croplands and enhances the gain in afforested regions. The global simulated losses are substantially reduced from 54.0 Pg C to 22.0 Pg C, with the input-driven losses reducing from 54.7 Pg C to 24.9 Pg C. Our study shows that the dominating control of soil carbon losses is through the input-driven changes, which are more directly influenced by human management than the turnover-driven ones.

Stochastically-forced Decadal Variability in Australian Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taschetto, A.

2015-12-01

Iconic Australian dry and wet periods were driven by anomalous conditions in the tropical oceans, such as the worst short-term drought in the southeast in 1982 associated with the strong El Niño and the widespread "Big Wet" in 1974 linked with a La Niña event. The association with oceanic conditions makes droughts predictable to some extent. However, prediction can be difficult when there is no clear external forcing such as El Niños. Can dry spells be triggered and maintained with no ocean memory? In this study, we investigate the potential role of internal multi-century atmospheric variability in controlling the frequency, duration and intensity of long-term dry and wet spells over Australia. Two multi-century-scale simulations were performed with the NCAR CESM: (1) a fully-coupled simulation (CPLD) and (2) an atmospheric simulation forced by a seasonal SST climatology derived from the coupled experiment (ACGM). Results reveal that droughts and wet spells can indeed be generated by internal variability of the atmosphere. Those internally generated events are less severe than those forced by oceanic variability, however the duration of dry and wet spells longer than 3 years is comparable with and without the ocean memory. Large-scale ocean modes of variability seem to play an important role in producing continental-scale rainfall impacts over Australia. While the Pacific Decadal Oscillation plays an important role in generating droughts in the fully coupled model, perturbations of monsoonal winds seem to be the main trigger of dry spells in the AGCM case. Droughts in the mid-latitude regions such as Tasmania can be driven by perturbations in the Southern Annular Mode, not necessarily linked to oceanic conditions even in the fully-coupled model. The mechanisms behind internally-driven mega-droughts and mega-wets will be discussed.

Effect of Technology Driven Agricultural Land Use Change on Regional Hydroclimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arritt, R. W.; Sines, T. R.; Groisman, P. Y.; Gelder, B. K.

2017-12-01

During the mid-20th century motorized equipment replaced work animals in the central U.S. This led to a 95% decrease in farmland for producing oats, which had mostly been used as feed for horses. Much of this land was converted to more profitable crops such as soybeans and maize. The same period also saw a strong shift of the central U.S. precipitation intensity spectrum toward heavier events. Was this a coincidence, or is there a causal relationship? We investigate possible connections between this technology-driven land use change and regional hydroclimate by performing multi-decadal simulations over the central U.S. using the WRF-ARW regional climate model coupled with the Community Land Model (CLM 4.5). Cropland planted in maize, soybean, winter wheat, small grains (which includes oats and spring wheat), and other C3 and C4 crops were reconstructed on a decade by decade basis from 1940-2010 using county-level crop data. These crop distributions were used as land surface boundary conditions for two multi-decadal regional climate simulations, one with 1940s land use and another with modern (circa 2010) land use. Modern land use produced a shift in the simulated daily precipitation intensity spectrum toward heavy events, with higher frequencies of heavy precipitation amounts and lower frequencies of light amounts compared to 1940s land use. The results suggest that replacement of work animals by mechanized transport led to land use changes that produced about 10-30% of the observed trend toward more intense precipitation over the central United States. We therefore recommend that policy- and technology-driven changes in crop type be taken into account when projecting future climate and water resources.

An Open-Source Arduino-based Controller for Mechanical Rain Simulators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cantilina, K. K.

2017-12-01

Many commercial rain simulators currently used in hydrology rely on inflexible and outdated controller designs. These analog controllers typically only allow a handful of discrete parameter options, and do not support internal timing functions or continuously-changing parameters. A desire for finer control of rain simulation events necessitated the design and construction of a microcontroller-based controller, using widely available off-the-shelf components. A menu driven interface allows users to fine-tune simulation parameters without the need for training or experience with microcontrollers, and the accessibility of the Arduino IDE allows users with a minimum of programming and hardware experience to modify the controller program to suit the needs of individual experiments.

Design of 3D simulation engine for oilfield safety training

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hua-Ming; Kang, Bao-Sheng

2015-03-01

Aiming at the demand for rapid custom development of 3D simulation system for oilfield safety training, this paper designs and implements a 3D simulation engine based on script-driven method, multi-layer structure, pre-defined entity objects and high-level tools such as scene editor, script editor, program loader. A scripting language been defined to control the system's progress, events and operating results. Training teacher can use this engine to edit 3D virtual scenes, set the properties of entity objects, define the logic script of task, and produce a 3D simulation training system without any skills of programming. Through expanding entity class, this engine can be quickly applied to other virtual training areas.

Variance Estimation, Design Effects, and Sample Size Calculations for Respondent-Driven Sampling

PubMed Central

2006-01-01

Hidden populations, such as injection drug users and sex workers, are central to a number of public health problems. However, because of the nature of these groups, it is difficult to collect accurate information about them, and this difficulty complicates disease prevention efforts. A recently developed statistical approach called respondent-driven sampling improves our ability to study hidden populations by allowing researchers to make unbiased estimates of the prevalence of certain traits in these populations. Yet, not enough is known about the sample-to-sample variability of these prevalence estimates. In this paper, we present a bootstrap method for constructing confidence intervals around respondent-driven sampling estimates and demonstrate in simulations that it outperforms the naive method currently in use. We also use simulations and real data to estimate the design effects for respondent-driven sampling in a number of situations. We conclude with practical advice about the power calculations that are needed to determine the appropriate sample size for a study using respondent-driven sampling. In general, we recommend a sample size twice as large as would be needed under simple random sampling. PMID:16937083

Quantifying the Contribution of Wind-Driven Linear Response to the Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Amoc Volume Transports Across 26.5ºN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimizu, K.; von Storch, J. S.; Haak, H.; Nakayama, K.; Marotzke, J.

2014-12-01

Surface wind stress is considered to be an important forcing of the seasonal and interannual variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) volume transports. A recent study showed that even linear response to wind forcing captures observed features of the mean seasonal cycle. However, the study did not assess the contribution of wind-driven linear response in realistic conditions against the RAPID/MOCHA array observation or Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) simulations, because it applied a linear two-layer model to the Atlantic assuming constant upper layer thickness and density difference across the interface. Here, we quantify the contribution of wind-driven linear response to the seasonal and interannual variability of AMOC transports by comparing wind-driven linear simulations under realistic continuous stratification against the RAPID observation and OCGM (MPI-OM) simulations with 0.4º resolution (TP04) and 0.1º resolution (STORM). All the linear and MPI-OM simulations capture more than 60% of the variance in the observed mean seasonal cycle of the Upper Mid-Ocean (UMO) and Florida Strait (FS) transports, two components of the upper branch of the AMOC. The linear and TP04 simulations also capture 25-40% of the variance in the observed transport time series between Apr 2004 and Oct 2012; the STORM simulation does not capture the observed variance because of the stochastic signal in both datasets. Comparison of half-overlapping 12-month-long segments reveals some periods when the linear and TP04 simulations capture 40-60% of the observed variance, as well as other periods when the simulations capture only 0-20% of the variance. These results show that wind-driven linear response is a major contributor to the seasonal and interannual variability of the UMO and FS transports, and that its contribution varies in an interannual timescale, probably due to the variability of stochastic processes.

Sensitivity of polar ozone recovery predictions of the GMI 3D CTM to GCM and DAS dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Considine, D.; Connell, P.; Strahan, S.; Douglass, A.; Rotman, D.

2003-04-01

The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) 3-D chemistry and transport model has been used to generate 2 simulations of the 1995-2030 time period. The 36-year simulations both used the source gas and aerosol boundary conditions of the 2002 World Meteorological Organization assessment exercise MA2. The first simulation was based on a single year of meteorological data (winds, temperatures) generated by the new Goddard Space Flight Center "Finite Volume" General Circulation Model (FVGCM), repeated for each year of the simulation. The second simulation used a year of meteorological data generated by a new data assimilation system based on the FVGCM (FVDAS), using observations for July 1, 1999 - June 30, 2000. All other aspects of the two simulations were identical. The increase in vortex-averaged south polar springtime ozone concentrations in the lower stratosphere over the course of the simulations is more robust in the simulation driven by the GCM meteorological data than in the simulation driven by DAS winds. At the same time, the decrease in estimated chemical springtime ozone loss is similar. We thus attribute the differences between the two simulations to differences in the representations of polar dynamics which reduce the sensitivity of the simulation driven by DAS winds to changes in vortex chemistry. We also evaluate the representations in the two simulations of trace constituent distributions in the current polar lower stratosphere using various observations. In these comparisons the GCM-based simulation often is in better agreement with the observations than the DAS-based simulation.

An experimental, theoretical and event-driven computational study of narrow vibrofluidised granular materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, Anthony; Windows-Yule, Kit; Parker, David; Luding, Stefan

2017-06-01

We review simulations, experiments and a theoretical treatment of vertically vibrated granular media. The systems considered are confined in narrow quasi-two-dimensional and quasi-one-dimensional (column) geometries, where the vertical extension of the container is much larger than one or both horizontal lengths. The additional geometric constraint present in the column setup frustrates the convection state that is normally observed in wider geometries. We start by showing that the Event Driven (ED) simulation method is able to accurately reproduce the previously experimentally determined phase-diagram for vibrofludised granular materials. We then review two papers that used ED simulations to study narrow quasi-one-dimensional systems revealing a new phenomenon: collective oscillations of the grains with a characteristic frequency that is much lower than the frequency of energy injection. Theoretical work was then undertaken that is able to accurately predict the frequency of such an oscillation and Positron Emission Particle Tracking (PEPT) experiments were undertaken to provide the first experimental evidence of this new phenomenon. Finally, we briefly discuss ongoing work to create an open-source version of this ED via its integration in the existing open-source package MercuryDPM (http://MercuryDPM.org); which has many advanced features that are not found in other codes.

Design of the HELICS High-Performance Transmission-Distribution-Communication-Market Co-Simulation Framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Palmintier, Bryan S; Krishnamurthy, Dheepak; Top, Philip

This paper describes the design rationale for a new cyber-physical-energy co-simulation framework for electric power systems. This new framework will support very large-scale (100,000+ federates) co-simulations with off-the-shelf power-systems, communication, and end-use models. Other key features include cross-platform operating system support, integration of both event-driven (e.g. packetized communication) and time-series (e.g. power flow) simulation, and the ability to co-iterate among federates to ensure model convergence at each time step. After describing requirements, we begin by evaluating existing co-simulation frameworks, including HLA and FMI, and conclude that none provide the required features. Then we describe the design for the new layeredmore » co-simulation architecture.« less

Design of the HELICS High-Performance Transmission-Distribution-Communication-Market Co-Simulation Framework: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Palmintier, Bryan S; Krishnamurthy, Dheepak; Top, Philip

This paper describes the design rationale for a new cyber-physical-energy co-simulation framework for electric power systems. This new framework will support very large-scale (100,000+ federates) co-simulations with off-the-shelf power-systems, communication, and end-use models. Other key features include cross-platform operating system support, integration of both event-driven (e.g. packetized communication) and time-series (e.g. power flow) simulation, and the ability to co-iterate among federates to ensure model convergence at each time step. After describing requirements, we begin by evaluating existing co-simulation frameworks, including HLA and FMI, and conclude that none provide the required features. Then we describe the design for the new layeredmore » co-simulation architecture.« less

Teaching sexual history-taking skills using the Sexual Events Classification System.

PubMed

Fidler, Donald C; Petri, Justin Daniel; Chapman, Mark

2010-01-01

The authors review the literature about educational programs for teaching sexual history-taking skills and describe novel techniques for teaching these skills. Psychiatric residents enrolled in a brief sexual history-taking course that included instruction on the Sexual Events Classification System, feedback on residents' video-recorded interviews with simulated patients, discussion of videos that simulated bad interviews, simulated patients, and a competency scoring form to score a video of a simulated interview. After the course, residents completed an anonymous survey to assess the usefulness of the experience. After the course, most residents felt more comfortable taking sexual histories. They described the Sexual Events Classification System and simulated interviews as practical methods for teaching sexual history-taking skills. The Sexual Events Classification System and simulated patient experiences may serve as a practical model for teaching sexual history-taking skills to general psychiatric residents.

Flight deck disturbance management: a simulator study of diagnosis and recovery from breakdowns in pilot-automation coordination.

PubMed

Nikolic, Mark I; Sarter, Nadine B

2007-08-01

To examine operator strategies for diagnosing and recovering from errors and disturbances as well as the impact of automation design and time pressure on these processes. Considerable efforts have been directed at error prevention through training and design. However, because errors cannot be eliminated completely, their detection, diagnosis, and recovery must also be supported. Research has focused almost exclusively on error detection. Little is known about error diagnosis and recovery, especially in the context of event-driven tasks and domains. With a confederate pilot, 12 airline pilots flew a 1-hr simulator scenario that involved three challenging automation-related tasks and events that were likely to produce erroneous actions or assessments. Behavioral data were compared with a canonical path to examine pilots' error and disturbance management strategies. Debriefings were conducted to probe pilots' system knowledge. Pilots seldom followed the canonical path to cope with the scenario events. Detection of a disturbance was often delayed. Diagnostic episodes were rare because of pilots' knowledge gaps and time criticality. In many cases, generic inefficient recovery strategies were observed, and pilots relied on high levels of automation to manage the consequences of an error. Our findings describe and explain the nature and shortcomings of pilots' error management activities. They highlight the need for improved automation training and design to achieve more timely detection, accurate explanation, and effective recovery from errors and disturbances. Our findings can inform the design of tools and techniques that support disturbance management in various complex, event-driven environments.

Simulations of Cloud-Radiation Interaction Using Large-Scale Forcing Derived from the CINDY/DYNAMO Northern Sounding Array

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Shuguang; Sobel, Adam H.; Fridlind, Ann; Feng, Zhe; Comstock, Jennifer M.; Minnis, Patrick; Nordeen, Michele L.

2015-01-01

The recently completed CINDY/DYNAMO field campaign observed two Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) events in the equatorial Indian Ocean from October to December 2011. Prior work has indicated that the moist static energy anomalies in these events grew and were sustained to a significant extent by radiative feedbacks. We present here a study of radiative fluxes and clouds in a set of cloud-resolving simulations of these MJO events. The simulations are driven by the large-scale forcing data set derived from the DYNAMO northern sounding array observations, and carried out in a doubly periodic domain using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Simulated cloud properties and radiative fluxes are compared to those derived from the S-PolKa radar and satellite observations. To accommodate the uncertainty in simulated cloud microphysics, a number of single-moment (1M) and double-moment (2M) microphysical schemes in the WRF model are tested. The 1M schemes tend to underestimate radiative flux anomalies in the active phases of the MJO events, while the 2M schemes perform better, but can overestimate radiative flux anomalies. All the tested microphysics schemes exhibit biases in the shapes of the histograms of radiative fluxes and radar reflectivity. Histograms of radiative fluxes and brightness temperature indicate that radiative biases are not evenly distributed; the most significant bias occurs in rainy areas with OLR less than 150 W/ cu sq in the 2M schemes. Analysis of simulated radar reflectivities indicates that this radiative flux uncertainty is closely related to the simulated stratiform cloud coverage. Single-moment schemes underestimate stratiform cloudiness by a factor of 2, whereas 2M schemes simulate much more stratiform cloud.

Aspect ratio effects on limited scrape-off layer plasma turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jolliet, Sébastien; Halpern, Federico D.; Loizu, Joaquim; Mosetto, Annamaria; Ricci, Paolo

2014-02-01

The drift-reduced Braginskii model describing turbulence in the tokamak scrape-off layer is written for a general magnetic configuration with a limiter. The equilibrium is then specified for a circular concentric magnetic geometry retaining aspect ratio effects. Simulations are then carried out with the help of the global, flux-driven fluid three-dimensional code GBS [Ricci et al., Plasma Phys. Controlled Fusion 54, 124047 (2012)]. Linearly, both simulations and simplified analytical models reveal a stabilization of ballooning modes. Nonlinearly, flux-driven nonlinear simulations give a pressure characteristic length whose trends are correctly captured by the gradient removal theory [Ricci and Rogers, Phys. Plasmas 20, 010702 (2013)], that assumes the profile flattening from the linear modes as the saturation mechanism. More specifically, the linear stabilization of ballooning modes is reflected by a 15% increase in the steady-state pressure gradient obtained from GBS nonlinear simulations when going from an infinite to a realistic aspect ratio.

Characterizing rare-event property distributions via replicate molecular dynamics simulations of proteins.

PubMed

Krishnan, Ranjani; Walton, Emily B; Van Vliet, Krystyn J

2009-11-01

As computational resources increase, molecular dynamics simulations of biomolecules are becoming an increasingly informative complement to experimental studies. In particular, it has now become feasible to use multiple initial molecular configurations to generate an ensemble of replicate production-run simulations that allows for more complete characterization of rare events such as ligand-receptor unbinding. However, there are currently no explicit guidelines for selecting an ensemble of initial configurations for replicate simulations. Here, we use clustering analysis and steered molecular dynamics simulations to demonstrate that the configurational changes accessible in molecular dynamics simulations of biomolecules do not necessarily correlate with observed rare-event properties. This informs selection of a representative set of initial configurations. We also employ statistical analysis to identify the minimum number of replicate simulations required to sufficiently sample a given biomolecular property distribution. Together, these results suggest a general procedure for generating an ensemble of replicate simulations that will maximize accurate characterization of rare-event property distributions in biomolecules.

Complete event simulations of nuclear fission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogt, Ramona

2015-10-01

For many years, the state of the art for treating fission in radiation transport codes has involved sampling from average distributions. In these average fission models energy is not explicitly conserved and everything is uncorrelated because all particles are emitted independently. However, in a true fission event, the energies, momenta and multiplicities of the emitted particles are correlated. Such correlations are interesting for many modern applications. Event-by-event generation of complete fission events makes it possible to retain the kinematic information for all particles emitted: the fission products as well as prompt neutrons and photons. It is therefore possible to extract any desired correlation observables. Complete event simulations can be included in general Monte Carlo transport codes. We describe the general functionality of currently available fission event generators and compare results for several important observables. This work was performed under the auspices of the US DOE by LLNL, Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. We acknowledge support of the Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development in DOE/NNSA.

Modeling the Pineapple Express phenomenon via Multivariate Extreme Value Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, G.; Cooley, D. S.

2011-12-01

The pineapple express (PE) phenomenon is responsible for producing extreme winter precipitation events in the coastal and mountainous regions of the western United States. Because the PE phenomenon is also associated with warm temperatures, the heavy precipitation and associated snowmelt can cause destructive flooding. In order to study impacts, it is important that regional climate models from NARCCAP are able to reproduce extreme precipitation events produced by PE. We define a daily precipitation quantity which captures the spatial extent and intensity of precipitation events produced by the PE phenomenon. We then use statistical extreme value theory to model the tail dependence of this quantity as seen in an observational data set and each of the six NARCCAP regional models driven by NCEP reanalysis. We find that most NCEP-driven NARCCAP models do exhibit tail dependence between daily model output and observations. Furthermore, we find that not all extreme precipitation events are pineapple express events, as identified by Dettinger et al. (2011). The synoptic-scale atmospheric processes that drive extreme precipitation events produced by PE have only recently begun to be examined. Much of the current work has focused on pattern recognition, rather than quantitative analysis. We use daily mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) fields from NCEP to develop a "pineapple express index" for extreme precipitation, which exhibits tail dependence with our observed precipitation quantity for pineapple express events. We build a statistical model that connects daily precipitation output from the WRFG model, daily MSLP fields from NCEP, and daily observed precipitation in the western US. Finally, we use this model to simulate future observed precipitation based on WRFG output driven by the CCSM model, and our pineapple express index derived from future CCSM output. Our aim is to use this model to develop a better understanding of the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events produced by PE under climate change.

Large-scale and Long-duration Simulation of a Multi-stage Eruptive Solar Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, chaowei; Hu, Qiang; Wu, S. T.

2015-04-01

We employ a data-driven 3D MHD active region evolution model by using the Conservation Element and Solution Element (CESE) numerical method. This newly developed model retains the full MHD effects, allowing time-dependent boundary conditions and time evolution studies. The time-dependent simulation is driven by measured vector magnetograms and the method of MHD characteristics on the bottom boundary. We have applied the model to investigate the coronal magnetic field evolution of AR11283 which was characterized by a pre-existing sigmoid structure in the core region and multiple eruptions, both in relatively small and large scales. We have succeeded in producing the core magnetic field structure and the subsequent eruptions of flux-rope structures (see https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/96898685/large.mp4 for an animation) as the measured vector magnetograms on the bottom boundary evolve in time with constant flux emergence. The whole process, lasting for about an hour in real time, compares well with the corresponding SDO/AIA and coronagraph imaging observations. From these results, we show the capability of the model, largely data-driven, that is able to simulate complex, topological, and highly dynamic active region evolutions. (We acknowledge partial support of NSF grants AGS 1153323 and AGS 1062050, and data support from SDO/HMI and AIA teams).

Agent-Based Simulations of Malaria Transmissions with Applications to a Study Site in Thailand

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiang, Richard K.; Adimi, Farida; Zollner, Gabriela E.; Coleman, Russell E.

2006-01-01

The dynamics of malaria transmission are driven by environmental, biotic and socioeconomic factors. Because of the geographic dependency of these factors and the complex interactions among them, it is difficult to generalize the key factors that perpetuate or intensify malaria transmission. Methods: Discrete event simulations were used for modeling the detailed interactions among the vector life cycle, sporogonic cycle and human infection cycle, under the explicit influences of selected extrinsic and intrinsic factors. Meteorological and environmental parameters may be derived from satellite data. The output of the model includes the individual infection status and the quantities normally observed in field studies, such as mosquito biting rates, sporozoite infection rates, gametocyte prevalence and incidence. Results were compared with mosquito vector and human malaria data acquired over 4.5 years (June 1999 - January 2004) in Kong Mong Tha, a remote village in Kanchanaburi Province, western Thailand. Results: Three years of transmissions of vivax and falciparum malaria were simulated for a hypothetical hamlet with approximately 1/7 of the study site population. The model generated results for a number of scenarios, including applications of larvicide and insecticide, asymptomatic cases receiving or not receiving treatment, blocking malaria transmission in mosquito vectors, and increasing the density of farm (host) animals in the hamlet. Transmission characteristics and trends in the simulated results are comparable to actual data collected at the study site.

Exploring the content and quality of episodic future simulations in semantic dementia.

PubMed

Irish, Muireann; Addis, Donna Rose; Hodges, John R; Piguet, Olivier

2012-12-01

Semantic dementia (SD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder characterised by the amodal loss of semantic knowledge in the context of relatively preserved recent episodic memory. Recent studies have demonstrated that despite relatively intact episodic memory the capacity for future simulation in SD is profoundly impaired, resulting in an asymmetric profile where past retrieval is significantly better than future simulation (referred to as a past>future effect). Here, we sought to identify the origins of this asymmetric profile by conducting a fine-grained analysis of the contextual details provided during past retrieval and future simulation in SD. Participants with SD (n=14), Alzheimer's disease (n=11), and healthy controls (n=14) had previously completed an experimental past-future interview in which they generated three past events from the previous year, and three future events in the next year, and provided subjective qualitative ratings of vividness, emotional valence, emotional intensity, task difficulty, and personal significance for each event described. Our results confirmed the striking impairment for future simulation in SD, despite a relative preservation of past episodic retrieval. Examination of the contextual details provided for past memories and future simulations revealed significant impairments irrespective of contextual detail type for future simulations in SD, and demonstrated that the future thinking deficit in this cohort was driven by a marked decline in the provision of internal (episodic) event details. In contrast with this past>future effect for internal event details, SD patients displayed a future>past effect for external (non-episodic) event details. Analyses of the qualitative ratings provided for past and future events indicated that SD patients' phenomenological experience did not differ between temporal conditions. Our findings underscore the fact that successful extraction of episodic elements from the past is not sufficient for the generation of novel future simulations in SD. The notable disconnect between objective task performance and patients' subjective experience during future simulation likely reflects the tendency of SD patients to recast entire past events into the future condition. Accordingly, the familiarity of the recapitulated details results in similar ratings of vividness and emotionality across temporal conditions, despite marked differences in the richness of contextual details as the patient moves from the past to the future. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling CO2 air dispersion from gas driven lake eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiodini, Giovanni; Costa, Antonio; Rouwet, Dmitri; Tassi, Franco

2016-04-01

The most tragic event of gas driven lake eruption occurred at Lake Nyos (Cameroon) on 21 August 1986, when a dense cloud of CO2 suffocated more than 1700 people and an uncounted number of animals in just one night. The event stimulated a series of researches aimed to understand gas origins, gas release mechanisms and strategies for gas hazard mitigation. Very few studies have been carried out for describing the transport of dense CO2 clouds in the atmosphere. Although from a theoretical point of view, gas dispersion can be fully studied by solving the complete equations system for mass, momentum and energy transport, in actual practice, different simplified models able to describe only specific phases or aspects have to be used. In order to simulate dispersion of a heavy gas and to assess the consequent hazard we used a model based on a shallow layer approach (TWODEE2). This technique which uses depth-averaged variables to describe the flow behavior of dense gas over complex topography represents a good compromise between the complexity of computational fluid dynamic models and the simpler integral models. Recently the model has been applied for simulating CO2 dispersion from natural gas emissions in Central Italy. The results have shown how the dispersion pattern is strongly affected by the intensity of gas release, the topography and the ambient wind speed. Here for the first time we applied TWODEE2 code to simulate the dispersion of the large CO2 clouds released by limnic eruptions. An application concerns the case of the 1986 event at lake Nyos. Some difficulties for the simulations were related to the lack of quantitative information: gas flux estimations are not well constrained, meteorological conditions are only qualitatively known, the digital model of the terrain is of poor quality. Different scenarios were taken into account in order to reproduce the qualitative observations available for such episode. The observations regard mainly the effects of gas on the people living in the surrounding areas. Simulation results are in good agreement with these observations. Another application is focused on a hypothetical gas release from lake Albano (Italy), a volcanic lake that probably degassed on the past as reported in historical chronicles by the Roman historian Titus Livius. At the present time the lake is far from saturation conditions and the occurrence of such an event is impossible. However a recent re-interpretation of literature data clearly show the presence of anomalous CO2 enrichment of the lake waters during the last seismic crisis which affected the area. For these reasons a future limnic eruption can not be ruled out completely. The simulations we present show the potential effect of a gas driven eruption from lake Albano in this densely populated area located 20 km south-east from the centre of Rome.

Good vibrations: tactile feedback in support of attention allocation and human-automation coordination in event-driven domains.

PubMed

Sklar, A E; Sarter, N B

1999-12-01

Observed breakdowns in human-machine communication can be explained, in part, by the nature of current automation feedback, which relies heavily on focal visual attention. Such feedback is not well suited for capturing attention in case of unexpected changes and events or for supporting the parallel processing of large amounts of data in complex domains. As suggested by multiple-resource theory, one possible solution to this problem is to distribute information across various sensory modalities. A simulator study was conducted to compare the effectiveness of visual, tactile, and redundant visual and tactile cues for indicating unexpected changes in the status of an automated cockpit system. Both tactile conditions resulted in higher detection rates for, and faster response times to, uncommanded mode transitions. Tactile feedback did not interfere with, nor was its effectiveness affected by, the performance of concurrent visual tasks. The observed improvement in task-sharing performance indicates that the introduction of tactile feedback is a promising avenue toward better supporting human-machine communication in event-driven, information-rich domains.

Observations and predictability of gap winds in a steep, narrow, fire-prone canyon in central Idaho, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagenbrenner, N. S.; Forthofer, J.; Gibson, C.; Lamb, B. K.

2017-12-01

Frequent strong gap winds were measured in a deep, steep, wildfire-prone river canyon of central Idaho, USA during July-September 2013. Analysis of archived surface pressure data indicate that the gap wind events were driven by regional scale surface pressure gradients. The events always occurred between 0400 and 1200 LT and typically lasted 3-4 hours. The timing makes these events particularly hazardous for wildland firefighting applications since the morning is typically a period of reduced fire activity and unsuspecting firefighters could be easily endangered by the onset of strong downcanyon winds. The gap wind events were not explicitly forecast by operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models due to the small spatial scale of the canyon ( 1-2 km wide) compared to the horizontal resolution of operational NWP models (3 km or greater). Custom WRF simulations initialized with NARR data were run at 1 km horizontal resolution to assess whether higher resolution NWP could accurately simulate the observed gap winds. Here, we show that the 1 km WRF simulations captured many of the observed gap wind events, although the strength of the events was underpredicted. We also present evidence from these WRF simulations which suggests that the Salmon River Canyon is near the threshold of WRF-resolvable terrain features when the standard WRF coordinate system and discretization schemes are used. Finally, we show that the strength of the gap wind events can be predicted reasonably well as a function of the surface pressure gradient across the gap, which could be useful in the absence of high-resolution NWP. These are important findings for wildland firefighting applications in narrow gaps where routine forecasts may not provide warning for wind effects induced by high-resolution terrain features.

Universal versus platelet reactivity assay-driven use of P2Y12 inhibitors in acute coronary syndrome patients: cost-effectiveness analyses for six European perspectives.

PubMed

Coleman, Craig I; Limone, Brendan L

2014-01-01

Platelet reactivity assays (PRAs) can predict patients' likely response to clopidogrel. As ticagrelor and prasugrel are typically considered first-line agents for acute coronary syndrome in Europe, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of universal compared to PRA-driven selection of these agents. A Markov model was used to calculate five-year costs (2013£/€), quality-adjusted life-years and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for one-year of universal ticagrelor or prasugrel (given to all) compared to each agents' corresponding PRA-driven strategy (ticagrelor/prasugrel in those with high platelet reactivity [HPR, >208 on the VerifyNow P2Y12 assay], others given generic clopidogrel). We assumed patients had their index event at 65-70 years of age and had a 42.7% incidence of HPR 24-48 hours post-revascularisation. The analysis was conducted from the perspective of six countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and United Kingdom) and used a one-year cycle length. Event data for P2Y12 inhibitors were taken from multinational randomised trials and adjusted using country-specific epidemiologic data. Neither universal ticagrelor nor prasugrel were found to be cost-effective (all ICERs >40,250€ or £36,600/QALY) compared to their corresponding PRA-driven strategies in any of the countries evaluated. Results were sensitive to differences in P2Y12 Inhibitors costs and drug-specific relative risks of major adverse cardiac events. Monte Carlo simulation suggested universal ticagrelor or prasugrel were cost-effective in only 25-44% and 11-17% of 10,000 iterations compared to their respective PRA-driven strategies, when applying a willingness-to-pay threshold = €30,000 or £20,000/QALY. In conclusion, the universal use of newer P2Y12 inhibitors is not likely cost-effective compared to PRA-driven strategies.

The Laser-Driven X-ray Big Area Backlighter (BABL): Design, Optimization, and Evolution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Flippo, Kirk Adler; DeVolder, Barbara Gloria; Doss, Forrest William

The Big Area BackLigher (BABL) has been developed for large area laser-driven x-ray backlighting on the National Ignition Facility (NIF), which can be used for general High Energy Density (HED) experiments. The BABL has been optimized via hydrodynamic simulations to produce laser-to-x-ray conversion efficiencies of up to nearly 5%. Lastly, four BABL foil materials, Zn, Fe, V, and Cu, have been used for He-α x ray production.

Oceanic link between abrupt changes in the North Atlantic Ocean and the African monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Ping; Zhang, Rong; Hazeleger, Wilco; Wen, Caihong; Wan, Xiuquan; Ji, Link; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Breugem, Wim-Paul; Seidel, Howard

2008-07-01

Abrupt changes in the African monsoon can have pronounced socioeconomic impacts on many West African countries. Evidence for both prolonged humid periods and monsoon failures have been identified throughout the late Pleistocene and early Holocene epochs. In particular, drought conditions in West Africa have occurred during periods of reduced North Atlantic thermohaline circulation, such as the Younger Dryas cold event. Here, we use an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model to examine the link between oceanographic changes in the North Atlantic Ocean and changes in the strength of the African monsoon. Our simulations show that when North Atlantic thermohaline circulation is substantially weakened, the flow of the subsurface North Brazil Current reverses. This leads to decreased upper tropical ocean stratification and warmer sea surface temperatures in the equatorial South Atlantic Ocean, and consequently reduces African summer monsoonal winds and rainfall over West Africa. This mechanism is in agreement with reconstructions of past climate. We therefore suggest that the interaction between thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean and wind-driven currents in the tropical Atlantic Ocean contributes to the rapidity of African monsoon transitions during abrupt climate change events.

Multi-day activity scheduling reactions to planned activities and future events in a dynamic model of activity-travel behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijland, Linda; Arentze, Theo; Timmermans, Harry

2014-01-01

Modeling multi-day planning has received scarce attention in activity-based transport demand modeling so far. However, new dynamic activity-based approaches are being developed at the current moment. The frequency and inflexibility of planned activities and events in activity schedules of individuals indicate the importance of incorporating those pre-planned activities in the new generation of dynamic travel demand models. Elaborating and combining previous work on event-driven activity generation, the aim of this paper is to develop and illustrate an extension of a need-based model of activity generation that takes into account possible influences of pre-planned activities and events. This paper describes the theory and shows the results of simulations of the extension. The simulation was conducted for six different activities, and the parameter values used were consistent with an earlier estimation study. The results show that the model works well and that the influences of the parameters are consistent, logical, and have clear interpretations. These findings offer further evidence of face and construct validity to the suggested modeling approach.

Prehistoric land use and Neolithisation in Europe in the context of regional climate events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemmen, C.; Wirtz, K. W.; Gronenborn, D.

2009-04-01

We present a simple, adaptation-driven, spatially explicit model of pre-Bronze age socio-technological change, called the Global Land Use and Technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES). The socio-technological realm is described by three characteristic traits: available technology, subsistence style ratio, and economic diversity. Human population and culture develop in the context of global paleoclimate and regional paleoclimate events. Global paleoclimate is derived from CLIMBER-2 Earth System Model anomalies superimposed on the IIASA temperature and precipitation database. Regional a forcing is provided by abrupt climate deteriorations from a compilation of 138 long-term high-resolution climate proxy time series from mostly terrestrial and near-shore archives. The GLUES simulator provides for a novel way to explore the interplay between climate, climate change, and cultural evolution both on the Holocene timescale as well as for short-term extreme event periods. We sucessfully simulate the migration of people and the diffusion of Neolithic technology from the Near East into Europe in the period 12000-4000 a BP. We find good agreement with recent archeological compilations of Western Eurasian Neolithic sites. No causal relationship between climate events and cultural evolution could be identified, but the speed of cultural development is found to be modulated by the frequency of climate events. From the demographic evolution and regional ressource consumption, we estimate regional land use change and prehistoric greenhouse gas emissions.

Effects of episodic rainfall on a subterranean estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Xiayang; Xin, Pei; Lu, Chunhui; Robinson, Clare; Li, Ling; Barry, D. A.

2017-07-01

Numerical simulations were conducted to examine the effect of episodic rainfall on nearshore groundwater dynamics in a tidally influenced unconfined coastal aquifer, with a focus on both long-term (yearly) and short-term (daily) behavior of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) and seawater intrusion (SWI). The results showed nonlinear interactions among the processes driven by rainfall, tides, and density gradients. Rainfall-induced infiltration increased the yearly averaged fresh groundwater discharge to the ocean but reduced the extents of the saltwater wedge and upper saline plume as well as the total rate of seawater circulation through both zones. Overall, the net effect of the interactions led to an increase of the SGD. The nearshore groundwater responded to individual rainfall events in a delayed and cumulative fashion, as evident in the variations of daily averaged SGD and salt stored in the saltwater wedge (quantifying the extent of SWI). A generalized linear model (GLM) along with a Gamma distribution function was developed to describe the delayed and prolonged effect of rainfall events on short-term groundwater behavior. This model validated with results of daily averaged SGD and SWI from the simulations of groundwater and solute transport using independent rainfall data sets, performed well in predicting the behavior of the nearshore groundwater system under the combined influence of episodic rainfall, tides, and density gradients. The findings and developed GLM form a basis for evaluating and predicting SGD, SWI, and associated mass fluxes from unconfined coastal aquifers under natural conditions, including episodic rainfall.

Knowledge Integration to Make Decisions About Complex Systems: Sustainability of Energy Production from Agriculture

ScienceCinema

Danuso, Francesco

2017-12-22

A major bottleneck for improving the governance of complex systems, rely on our ability to integrate different forms of knowledge into a decision support system (DSS). Preliminary aspects are the classification of different types of knowledge (a priori or general, a posteriori or specific, with uncertainty, numerical, textual, algorithmic, complete/incomplete, etc.), the definition of ontologies for knowledge management and the availability of proper tools like continuous simulation models, event driven models, statistical approaches, computational methods (neural networks, evolutionary optimization, rule based systems etc.) and procedure for textual documentation. Following these views at University of Udine, a computer language (SEMoLa, Simple, Easy Modelling Language) for knowledge integration has been developed.  SEMoLa can handle models, data, metadata and textual knowledge; it implements and extends the system dynamics ontology (Forrester, 1968; Jørgensen, 1994) in which systems are modelled by the concepts of material, group, state, rate, parameter, internal and external events and driving variables. As an example, a SEMoLa model to improve management and sustainability (economical, energetic, environmental) of the agricultural farms is presented. The model (X-Farm) simulates a farm in which cereal and forage yield, oil seeds, milk, calves and wastes can be sold or reused. X-Farm is composed by integrated modules describing fields (crop and soil), feeds and materials storage, machinery management, manpower  management, animal husbandry, economic and energetic balances, seed oil extraction, manure and wastes management, biogas production from animal wastes and biomasses.

Intensification of convective extremes driven by cloud-cloud interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moseley, Christopher; Hohenegger, Cathy; Berg, Peter; Haerter, Jan O.

2016-10-01

In a changing climate, a key role may be played by the response of convective-type cloud and precipitation to temperature changes. Yet, it is unclear if convective precipitation intensities will increase mainly due to thermodynamic or dynamical processes. Here we perform large eddy simulations of convection by imposing a realistic diurnal cycle of surface temperature. We find convective events to gradually self-organize into larger cloud clusters and those events occurring late in the day to produce the highest precipitation intensities. Tracking rain cells throughout their life cycles, we show that events which result from collisions respond strongly to changes in boundary conditions, such as temperature changes. Conversely, events not resulting from collisions remain largely unaffected by the boundary conditions. Increased surface temperature indeed leads to more interaction between events and stronger precipitation extremes. However, comparable intensification occurs when leaving temperature unchanged but simply granting more time for self-organization. These findings imply that the convective field as a whole acquires a memory of past precipitation and inter-cloud dynamics, driving extremes. For global climate model projections, our results suggest that the interaction between convective clouds must be incorporated to simulate convective extremes and the diurnal cycle more realistically.

Relative sea-level data from southwest Scotland constrain meltwater-driven sea-level jumps prior to the 8.2 kyr BP event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, Thomas; Long, Antony J.; Gehrels, W. Roland; Jackson, Luke P.; Smith, David E.

2016-11-01

The most significant climate cooling of the Holocene is centred on 8.2 kyr BP (the '8.2 event'). Its cause is widely attributed to an abrupt slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) associated with the sudden drainage of Laurentide proglacial Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway, but model simulations have difficulty reproducing the event with a single-pulse scenario of freshwater input. Several lines of evidence point to multiple episodes of freshwater release from the decaying Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) between ∼8900 and ∼8200 cal yr BP, yet the precise number, timing and magnitude of these events - critical constraints for AMOC simulations - are far from resolved. Here we present a high-resolution relative sea level (RSL) record for the period 8800 to 7800 cal yr BP developed from estuarine and salt-marsh deposits in SW Scotland. We find that RSL rose abruptly in three steps by 0.35 m, 0.7 m and 0.4 m (mean) at 8760-8640, 8595-8465, 8323-8218 cal yr BP respectively. The timing of these RSL steps correlate closely with short-lived events expressed in North Atlantic proxy climate and oceanographic records, providing evidence of at least three distinct episodes of enhanced meltwater discharge from the decaying LIS prior to the 8.2 event. Our observations can be used to test the fidelity of both climate and ice-sheet models in simulating abrupt change during the early Holocene.

Exploration Supply Chain Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2008-01-01

The Exploration Supply Chain Simulation project was chartered by the NASA Exploration Systems Mission Directorate to develop a software tool, with proper data, to quantitatively analyze supply chains for future program planning. This tool is a discrete-event simulation that uses the basic supply chain concepts of planning, sourcing, making, delivering, and returning. This supply chain perspective is combined with other discrete or continuous simulation factors. Discrete resource events (such as launch or delivery reviews) are represented as organizational functional units. Continuous resources (such as civil service or contractor program functions) are defined as enabling functional units. Concepts of fixed and variable costs are included in the model to allow the discrete events to interact with cost calculations. The definition file is intrinsic to the model, but a blank start can be initiated at any time. The current definition file is an Orion Ares I crew launch vehicle. Parameters stretch from Kennedy Space Center across and into other program entities (Michaud Assembly Facility, Aliant Techsystems, Stennis Space Center, Johnson Space Center, etc.) though these will only gain detail as the file continues to evolve. The Orion Ares I file definition in the tool continues to evolve, and analysis from this tool is expected in 2008. This is the first application of such business-driven modeling to a NASA/government-- aerospace contractor endeavor.

Influence of the Sun on the Space Weather Conditions: Cycle 24 Observations from 1 AU to Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Christina

2016-10-01

Motivated by future crewed missions to Mars, there is a growing need to advance our knowledge of the heliospheric conditions between the Earth ( 1 AU) orbit and Mars ( 1.5 AU) orbit locations. Comparative conditions at these locations are of special interest since they are separated by the interplanetary region where most solar wind stream interaction regions develop. These regions alter the propagation of solar-heliospheric disturbances, including the interplanetary CME-driven shocks that create the space radiation (via solar energetic particles) that are hazardous to humans. Although the deep Cycle 23 minimum and the modestly active Cycle 24 maximum have produced generally weaker solar events and heliospheric conditions, observations from solar and planetary missions during the SDO era provide a unique opportunity to study how and to what extent the solar eruptive events impact the local space environments at Earth (and/or STEREO-A) and Mars, and for a given solar-heliospheric event period how the geospace and near-Mars space conditions compare and contrast with one another. Such observations include those from SDO, L1 observers (ACE,WIND,SOHO) and STEREO-A at 1 AU, and Mars Express, MSL, and MAVEN at 1.5 AU. Using these observations, we will highlight a number of Cycle 24 space weather events observed along the 1-AU orbit (at Earth and/or STEREO-A) and Mars that are triggered by CMEs, SEPs, flares, and/or CIRs. Numerical 3D simulations from WSA-Enlil-cone will also be presented to provide global context to the events discussed.

Mechanisms of diurnal precipitation over the US Great Plains: a cloud resolving model perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Myong-In; Choi, Ildae; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Kang, In-Sik

2010-02-01

The mechanisms of summertime diurnal precipitation in the US Great Plains were examined with the two-dimensional (2D) Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud-resolving model (CRM). The model was constrained by the observed large-scale background state and surface flux derived from the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program’s Intensive Observing Period (IOP) data at the Southern Great Plains (SGP). The model, when continuously-forced by realistic surface flux and large-scale advection, simulates reasonably well the temporal evolution of the observed rainfall episodes, particularly for the strongly forced precipitation events. However, the model exhibits a deficiency for the weakly forced events driven by diurnal convection. Additional tests were run with the GCE model in order to discriminate between the mechanisms that determine daytime and nighttime convection. In these tests, the model was constrained with the same repeating diurnal variation in the large-scale advection and/or surface flux. The results indicate that it is primarily the surface heat and moisture flux that is responsible for the development of deep convection in the afternoon, whereas the large-scale upward motion and associated moisture advection play an important role in preconditioning nocturnal convection. In the nighttime, high clouds are continuously built up through their interaction and feedback with long-wave radiation, eventually initiating deep convection from the boundary layer. Without these upper-level destabilization processes, the model tends to produce only daytime convection in response to boundary layer heating. This study suggests that the correct simulation of the diurnal variation in precipitation requires that the free-atmospheric destabilization mechanisms resolved in the CRM simulation must be adequately parameterized in current general circulation models (GCMs) many of which are overly sensitive to the parameterized boundary layer heating.

Simulation of Physical Experiments in Immersive Virtual Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, Ahmed K.; Wasfy, Tamer M.

2001-01-01

An object-oriented event-driven immersive Virtual environment is described for the creation of virtual labs (VLs) for simulating physical experiments. Discussion focuses on a number of aspects of the VLs, including interface devices, software objects, and various applications. The VLs interface with output devices, including immersive stereoscopic screed(s) and stereo speakers; and a variety of input devices, including body tracking (head and hands), haptic gloves, wand, joystick, mouse, microphone, and keyboard. The VL incorporates the following types of primitive software objects: interface objects, support objects, geometric entities, and finite elements. Each object encapsulates a set of properties, methods, and events that define its behavior, appearance, and functions. A container object allows grouping of several objects. Applications of the VLs include viewing the results of the physical experiment, viewing a computer simulation of the physical experiment, simulation of the experiments procedure, computational steering, and remote control of the physical experiment. In addition, the VL can be used as a risk-free (safe) environment for training. The implementation of virtual structures testing machines, virtual wind tunnels, and a virtual acoustic testing facility is described.

Event-driven simulation of the state institution activity for the service provision based on business processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kataev, M. Yu.; Loseva, N. V.; Mitsel, A. A.; Bulysheva, L. A.; Kozlov, S. V.

2017-01-01

The paper presents an approach, based on business processes, assessment and control of the state of the state institution, the social insurance Fund. The paper describes the application of business processes, such as items with clear measurable parameters that need to be determined, controlled and changed for management. The example of one of the business processes of the state institutions, which shows the ability to solve management tasks, is given. The authors of the paper demonstrate the possibility of applying the mathematical apparatus of imitative simulation for solving management tasks.

Off-equatorial current-driven instabilities ahead of approaching dipolarization fronts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xu; Angelopoulos, V.; Pritchett, P. L.; Liu, Jiang

2017-05-01

Recent kinetic simulations have revealed that electromagnetic instabilities near the ion gyrofrequency and slightly away from the equatorial plane can be driven by a current parallel to the magnetic field prior to the arrival of dipolarization fronts. Such instabilities are important because of their potential contribution to global electromagnetic energy conversion near dipolarization fronts. Of the several instabilities that may be consistent with such waves, the most notable are the current-driven electromagnetic ion cyclotron instability and the current-driven kink-like instability. To confirm the existence and characteristics of these instabilities, we used observations by two Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms satellites, one near the neutral sheet observing dipolarization fronts and the other at the boundary layer observing precursor waves and currents. We found that such instabilities with monochromatic signatures are rare, but one of the few cases was selected for further study. Two different instabilities, one at about 0.3 Hz and the other at a much lower frequency, 0.02 Hz, were seen in the data from the off-equatorial spacecraft. A parallel current attributed to an electron beam coexisted with the waves. Our instability analysis attributes the higher-frequency instability to a current-driven ion cyclotron instability and the lower frequency instability to a kink-like instability. The current-driven kink-like instability we observed is consistent with the instabilities observed in the simulation. We suggest that the currents needed to excite these low-frequency instabilities are so intense that the associated electron beams are easily thermalized and hence difficult to observe.

Relativistic magnetic reconnection driven by a moderately intense laser interacting with a micro-plasma-slab

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Longqing; Shen, Baifei; Pukhov, Alexander; Fülöp, Tünde

2017-10-01

Magnetic reconnection (MR) in the relativistic regime is generally thought to be responsible for powering rapid bursts of non-thermal radiation in astrophysical events. It is therefore of significant importance to study how the field energy is transferred to the plasma to power the observed emission. However, due to the difficulty in making direct measurements in astrophysical systems or achieving relativistic MR in laboratory environments, the particle acceleration is usually studied using fully kinetic PIC simulations. Here we present a numerical study of a readily available (TW-mJ-class) laser interacting with a micro-scale plasma slab. The simulations show when the electron beams excited on both sides of the slab approach the end of the plasma structure, ultrafast relativistic MR occurs. As the field topology changes, the explosive release of magnetic energy results in emission of relativistic electron jets with cut-off energy 12 MeV. The proposed novel scenario can be straightforwardly implemented in experiments, and might significantly improve the understanding of fundamental questions such as field dissipation and particle acceleration in relativistic MR. This work is supported by the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation and the European Research Council (ERC-2014-CoG Grant 64712).

Modeling the energy performance of event-driven wireless sensor network by using static sink and mobile sink.

PubMed

Chen, Jiehui; Salim, Mariam B; Matsumoto, Mitsuji

2010-01-01

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) designed for mission-critical applications suffer from limited sensing capacities, particularly fast energy depletion. Regarding this, mobile sinks can be used to balance the energy consumption in WSNs, but the frequent location updates of the mobile sinks can lead to data collisions and rapid energy consumption for some specific sensors. This paper explores an optimal barrier coverage based sensor deployment for event driven WSNs where a dual-sink model was designed to evaluate the energy performance of not only static sensors, but Static Sink (SS) and Mobile Sinks (MSs) simultaneously, based on parameters such as sensor transmission range r and the velocity of the mobile sink v, etc. Moreover, a MS mobility model was developed to enable SS and MSs to effectively collaborate, while achieving spatiotemporal energy performance efficiency by using the knowledge of the cumulative density function (cdf), Poisson process and M/G/1 queue. The simulation results verified that the improved energy performance of the whole network was demonstrated clearly and our eDSA algorithm is more efficient than the static-sink model, reducing energy consumption approximately in half. Moreover, we demonstrate that our results are robust to realistic sensing models and also validate the correctness of our results through extensive simulations.

Modeling the Energy Performance of Event-Driven Wireless Sensor Network by Using Static Sink and Mobile Sink

PubMed Central

Chen, Jiehui; Salim, Mariam B.; Matsumoto, Mitsuji

2010-01-01

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) designed for mission-critical applications suffer from limited sensing capacities, particularly fast energy depletion. Regarding this, mobile sinks can be used to balance the energy consumption in WSNs, but the frequent location updates of the mobile sinks can lead to data collisions and rapid energy consumption for some specific sensors. This paper explores an optimal barrier coverage based sensor deployment for event driven WSNs where a dual-sink model was designed to evaluate the energy performance of not only static sensors, but Static Sink (SS) and Mobile Sinks (MSs) simultaneously, based on parameters such as sensor transmission range r and the velocity of the mobile sink v, etc. Moreover, a MS mobility model was developed to enable SS and MSs to effectively collaborate, while achieving spatiotemporal energy performance efficiency by using the knowledge of the cumulative density function (cdf), Poisson process and M/G/1 queue. The simulation results verified that the improved energy performance of the whole network was demonstrated clearly and our eDSA algorithm is more efficient than the static-sink model, reducing energy consumption approximately in half. Moreover, we demonstrate that our results are robust to realistic sensing models and also validate the correctness of our results through extensive simulations. PMID:22163503

Simulating Roll Clouds associated with Low-Level Convergence.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasad, A. A.; Sherwood, S. C.

2015-12-01

Convective initiation often takes place when features such as fronts and/or rolls collide, merge or otherwise meet. Rolls indicate boundary layer convergence and may initiate thunderstorms. These are often seen in satellite and radar imagery prior to the onset of deep convection. However, links between convergence driven rolls and convection are poor in global models. The poor representation of convection is the source of many model biases, especially over the Maritime Continent in the Tropics. We simulate low-level convergence lines over north-eastern Australia using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (version 3.7). The simulations are events from September-October 2002 driven by sea breeze circulations. Cloud lines associated with bore-waves that form along the low-level convergence lines are thoroughly investigated in this study with comparisons from satellite and surface observations. Initial simulations for a series of cloud lines observed on 4th October, 2002 over the Gulf of Carpentaria showed greater agreement in the timing and propagation of the disturbance and the low-level convergence, however the cloud lines or streets of roll clouds were not properly captured by the model. Results from a number of WRF simulations with different microphysics, cumulus and planetary boundary layer schemes, resolution and boundary conditions will also be discussed.

Consistent simulation of direct-photon production in hadron collisions including associated two-jet production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odaka, Shigeru; Kurihara, Yoshimasa

2016-05-01

We have developed an event generator for direct-photon production in hadron collisions, including associated 2-jet production in the framework of the GR@PPA event generator. The event generator consistently combines γ + 2-jet production processes with the lowest-order γ + jet and photon-radiation (fragmentation) processes from quantum chromodynamics (QCD) 2-jet production using a subtraction method. The generated events can be fed to general-purpose event generators to facilitate the addition of hadronization and decay simulations. Using the obtained event information, we can simulate photon isolation and hadron-jet reconstruction at the particle (hadron) level. The simulation reasonably reproduces measurement data obtained at the large hadron collider (LHC) concerning not only the inclusive photon spectrum, but also the correlation between the photon and jet. The simulation implies that the contribution of the γ + 2-jet is very large, especially in low photon-pT ( ≲ 50 GeV) regions. Discrepancies observed at low pT, although marginal, may indicate the necessity for the consideration of further higher-order processes. Unambiguous particle-level definition of the photon-isolation condition for the signal events is desired to be given explicitly in future measurements.

Properties of Neutrino-driven Ejecta from the Remnant of a Binary Neutron Star Merger: Pure Radiation Hydrodynamics Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujibayashi, Sho; Sekiguchi, Yuichiro; Kiuchi, Kenta; Shibata, Masaru

2017-09-01

We performed general relativistic, long-term, axisymmetric neutrino radiation hydrodynamics simulations for the remnant formed after a binary neutron star merger, which consists of a massive neutron star and a torus surrounding it. As an initial condition, we employ the result derived in a three-dimensional, numerical relativity simulation for the binary neutron star merger. We investigate the properties of neutrino-driven ejecta. Due to the pair-annihilation heating, the dynamics of the neutrino-driven ejecta are significantly modified. The kinetic energy of the ejecta is about two times larger than that in the absence of pair-annihilation heating. This suggests that the pair-annihilation heating plays an important role in the evolution of merger remnants. The relativistic outflow, which is required for driving gamma-ray bursts, is not observed because the specific heating rate around the rotational axis is not sufficiently high, due to the baryon loading caused by the neutrino-driven ejecta from the massive neutron star. We discuss the condition for launching the relativistic outflow and the nucleosynthesis in the ejecta.

Data driven CAN node reliability assessment for manufacturing system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Leiming; Yuan, Yong; Lei, Yong

2017-01-01

The reliability of the Controller Area Network(CAN) is critical to the performance and safety of the system. However, direct bus-off time assessment tools are lacking in practice due to inaccessibility of the node information and the complexity of the node interactions upon errors. In order to measure the mean time to bus-off(MTTB) of all the nodes, a novel data driven node bus-off time assessment method for CAN network is proposed by directly using network error information. First, the corresponding network error event sequence for each node is constructed using multiple-layer network error information. Then, the generalized zero inflated Poisson process(GZIP) model is established for each node based on the error event sequence. Finally, the stochastic model is constructed to predict the MTTB of the node. The accelerated case studies with different error injection rates are conducted on a laboratory network to demonstrate the proposed method, where the network errors are generated by a computer controlled error injection system. Experiment results show that the MTTB of nodes predicted by the proposed method agree well with observations in the case studies. The proposed data driven node time to bus-off assessment method for CAN networks can successfully predict the MTTB of nodes by directly using network error event data.

Impact of climate change on runoff pollution in urban environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coutu, S.; Kramer, S.; Barry, D. A.; Roudier, P.

2012-12-01

Runoff from urban environments is generally contaminated. These contaminants mostly originate from road traffic and building envelopes. Facade envelopes generate lead, zinc and even biocides, which are used for facade protection. Road traffic produces particles from tires and brakes. The transport of these pollutants to the environment is controlled by rainfall. The interval, duration and intensity of rainfall events are important as the dynamics of the pollutants are often modeled with non-linear buildup/washoff functions. Buildup occurs during dry weather when pollution accumulates, and is subsequently washed-off at the time of the following rainfall, contaminating surface runoff. Climate predictions include modified rainfall distributions, with changes in both number and intensity of events, even if the expected annual rainfall varies little. Consequently, pollutant concentrations in urban runoff driven by buildup/washoff processes will be affected by these changes in rainfall distributions. We investigated to what extent modifications in future rainfall distributions will impact the concentrations of pollutants present in urban surface runoff. The study used the example of Lausanne, Switzerland (temperate climate zone). Three emission scenarios (time horizon 2090), multiple combinations of RCM/GCM and modifications in rain event frequency were used to simulate future rainfall distributions with various characteristics. Simulated rainfall events were used as inputs for four pairs of buildup/washoff models, in order to compare future pollution concentrations in surface runoff. In this way, uncertainty in model structure was also investigated. Future concentrations were estimated to be between ±40% of today's concentrations depending on the season and, importantly, on the choice of the RCM/GCM model. Overall, however, the dominant factor was the uncertainty inherent in buildup/washoff models, which dominated over the uncertainty in future rainfall distributions. Consequently, the choice of a proper buildup/washoff model, with calibrated site-specific coefficients, is a major factor in modeling future runoff concentrations from contaminated urban surfaces.

The effect of existing turbulence on stratified shear instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaminski, Alexis; Smyth, William

2017-11-01

Ocean turbulence is an essential process governing, for example, heat uptake by the ocean. In the stably-stratified ocean interior, this turbulence occurs in discrete events driven by vertical variations of the horizontal velocity. Typically, these events have been modelled by assuming an initially laminar stratified shear flow which develops wavelike instabilities, becomes fully turbulent, and then relaminarizes into a stable state. However, in the real ocean there is always some level of turbulence left over from previous events, and it is not yet understood how this turbulence impacts the evolution of future mixing events. Here, we perform a series of direct numerical simulations of turbulent events developing in stratified shear flows that are already at least weakly turbulent. We do so by varying the amplitude of the initial perturbations, and examine the subsequent development of the instability and the impact on the resulting turbulent fluxes. This work is supported by NSF Grant OCE1537173.

Extreme flood estimation by the SCHADEX method in a snow-driven catchment: application to Atnasjø (Norway)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paquet, Emmanuel; Lawrence, Deborah

2013-04-01

The SCHADEX method for extreme flood estimation was developed by Paquet et al. (2006, 2013), and since 2008, it is the reference method used by Electricité de France (EDF) for dam spillway design. SCHADEX is a so-called "semi-continuous" stochastic simulation method in that flood events are simulated on an event basis and are superimposed on a continuous simulation of the catchment saturation hazard usingrainfall-runoff modelling. The MORDOR hydrological model (Garçon, 1999) has thus far been used for the rainfall-runoff modelling. MORDOR is a conceptual, lumped, reservoir model with daily areal rainfall and air temperature as the driving input data. The principal hydrological processes represented are evapotranspiration, direct and indirect runoff, ground water, snow accumulation and melt, and routing. The model has been intensively used at EDF for more than 15 years, in particular for inflow forecasts for French mountainous catchments. SCHADEX has now also been applied to the Atnasjø catchment (463 km²), a well-documented inland catchment in south-central Norway, dominated by snowmelt flooding during spring/early summer. To support this application, a weather pattern classification based on extreme rainfall was first established for Norway (Fleig, 2012). This classification scheme was then used to build a Multi-Exponential Weather Pattern distribution (MEWP), as introduced by Garavaglia et al. (2010) for extreme rainfall estimation. The MORDOR model was then calibrated relative to daily discharge data for Atnasjø. Finally, a SCHADEX simulation was run to build a daily discharge distribution with a sufficient number of simulations for assessing the extreme quantiles. Detailed results are used to illustrate how SCHADEX handles the complex and interacting hydrological processes driving flood generation in this snow driven catchment. Seasonal and monthly distributions, as well as statistics for several thousand simulated events reaching a 1000 years return level value and assessment of snowmelt role in extreme floods are presented. This study illustrates the complexity of the extreme flood estimation in snow driven catchments, and the need for a good representation of snow accumulation and melting processes in simulations for design flood estimations. In particular, the SCHADEX method is able to represent a range of possible catchment conditions (representing both soil moisture and snowmelt) in which extreme flood events can occur. This study is part of a collaboration between NVE and EDF, initiated within the FloodFreq COST Action (http://www.cost-floodfreq.eu/). References: Fleig, A., Scientific Report of the Short Term Scientific Mission Anne Fleig visiting Électricité de France, FloodFreq COST action - STSM report, 2012 Garavaglia, F., Gailhard, J., Paquet, E., Lang, M., Garçon, R., and Bernardara, P., Introducing a rainfall compound distribution model based on weather patterns sub-sampling, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 951-964, doi:10.5194/hess-14-951-2010, 2010 Garçon, R. Modèle global pluie-débit pour la prévision et la prédétermination des crues, La Houille Blanche, 7-8, 88-95. doi: 10.1051/lhb/1999088 Paquet, E., Gailhard, J. and Garçon, R. (2006), Evolution of the GRADEX method: improvement by atmospheric circulation classification and hydrological modeling, La Houille Blanche, 5, 80-90. doi: 10.1051/lhb/2006091 Paquet, E., Garavaglia, F., Garçon, R. and Gailhard, J. (2012), The SCHADEX method: a semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation for extreme food estimation, Journal of Hydrology, under revision

Event-based simulation of networks with pulse delayed coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klinshov, Vladimir; Nekorkin, Vladimir

2017-10-01

Pulse-mediated interactions are common in networks of different nature. Here we develop a general framework for simulation of networks with pulse delayed coupling. We introduce the discrete map governing the dynamics of such networks and describe the computation algorithm for its numerical simulation.

A Model Independent General Search for new physics in ATLAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amoroso, S.; ATLAS Collaboration

2016-04-01

We present results of a model-independent general search for new phenomena in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The data set corresponds to a total integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb-1. Event topologies involving isolated electrons, photons and muons, as well as jets, including those identified as originating from b-quarks (b-jets) and missing transverse momentum are investigated. The events are subdivided according to their final states into exclusive event classes. For the 697 classes with a Standard Model expectation greater than 0.1 events, a search algorithm tests the compatibility of data against the Monte Carlo simulated background in three kinematic variables sensitive to new physics effects. No significant deviation is found in data. The number and size of the observed deviations follow the Standard Model expectation obtained from simulated pseudo-experiments.

Extreme Landfalling Atmospheric River Events in Arizona: Possible Future Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, I.; Dominguez, F.

2016-12-01

Changing climate could impact the frequency and intensity of extreme atmospheric river events. This can have important consequences for regions like the Southwestern United Sates that rely upon AR-related precipitation for meeting their water demand and are prone to AR-related flooding. This study investigates the effects of climate change on extreme AR events in the Salt and Verde river basins in Central Arizona using a pseudo global warming method (PGW). First, the five most extreme events that affected the region were selected. High-resolution control simulations of these events using the Weather Research and Forecasting model realistically captured the magnitude and spatial distribution of precipitation. Subsequently, following the PGW approach, the WRF initial and lateral boundary conditions were perturbed. The perturbation signals were obtained from an ensemble of 9 General Circulation Models for two warming scenarios - Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5. Several simulations were conducted changing the temperature and relative humidity fields. PGW simulations reveal that while the overall dynamics of the storms did not change significantly, there was marked strengthening of associated Integrated Vertical Transport (IVT) plumes. There was a general increase in the precipitation over the basins due to increased moisture availability, but heterogeneous spatial changes. Additionally, no significant changes in the strength of the pre-cold frontal low-level jet in the future simulations were observed.

Steady flow of smooth, inelastic particles on a bumpy inclined plane: Hard and soft particle simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tripathi, Anurag; Khakhar, D. V.

2010-04-01

We study smooth, slightly inelastic particles flowing under gravity on a bumpy inclined plane using event-driven and discrete-element simulations. Shallow layers (ten particle diameters) are used to enable simulation using the event-driven method within reasonable computational times. Steady flows are obtained in a narrow range of angles (13°-14.5°) ; lower angles result in stopping of the flow and higher angles in continuous acceleration. The flow is relatively dense with the solid volume fraction, ν≈0.5 , and significant layering of particles is observed. We derive expressions for the stress, heat flux, and dissipation for the hard and soft particle models from first principles. The computed mean velocity, temperature, stress, dissipation, and heat flux profiles of hard particles are compared to soft particle results for different values of stiffness constant (k) . The value of stiffness constant for which results for hard and soft particles are identical is found to be k≥2×106mg/d , where m is the mass of a particle, g is the acceleration due to gravity, and d is the particle diameter. We compare the simulation results to constitutive relations obtained from the kinetic theory of Jenkins and Richman [J. T. Jenkins and M. W. Richman, Arch. Ration. Mech. Anal. 87, 355 (1985)] for pressure, dissipation, viscosity, and thermal conductivity. We find that all the quantities are very well predicted by kinetic theory for volume fractions ν<0.5 . At higher densities, obtained for thicker layers ( H=15d and H=20d ), the kinetic theory does not give accurate prediction. Deviations of the kinetic theory predictions from simulation results are relatively small for dissipation and heat flux and most significant deviations are observed for shear viscosity and pressure. The results indicate the range of applicability of soft particle simulations and kinetic theory for dense flows.

Super- and sub-critical regions in shocks driven by radio-loud and radio-quiet CMEs

PubMed Central

Bemporad, Alessandro; Mancuso, Salvatore

2012-01-01

White-light coronagraphic images of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed by SOHO/LASCO C2 have been used to estimate the density jump along the whole front of two CME-driven shocks. The two events are different in that the first one was a “radio-loud” fast CME, while the second one was a “radio quiet” slow CME. From the compression ratios inferred along the shock fronts, we estimated the Alfvén Mach numbers for the general case of an oblique shock. It turns out that the “radio-loud” CME shock is initially super-critical around the shock center, while later on the whole shock becomes sub-critical. On the contrary, the shock associated with the “radio-quiet” CME is sub-critical at all times. This suggests that CME-driven shocks could be efficient particle accelerators at the shock nose only at the initiation phases of the event, if and when the shock is super-critical, while at later times they lose their energy and the capability to accelerate high energetic particles. PMID:25685431

Resistive pulse sensing of magnetic beads and supraparticle structures using tunable pores

PubMed Central

Willmott, Geoff R.; Platt, Mark; Lee, Gil U.

2012-01-01

Tunable pores (TPs) have been used for resistive pulse sensing of 1 μm superparamagnetic beads, both dispersed and within a magnetic field. Upon application of this field, magnetic supraparticle structures (SPSs) were observed. Onset of aggregation was most effectively indicated by an increase in the mean event magnitude, with data collected using an automated thresholding method. Simulations enabled discrimination between resistive pulses caused by dimers and individual particles. Distinct but time-correlated peaks were often observed, suggesting that SPSs became separated in pressure-driven flow focused at the pore constriction. The distinct properties of magnetophoretic and pressure-driven transport mechanisms can explain variations in the event rate when particles move through an asymmetric pore in either direction, with or without a magnetic field applied. Use of TPs for resistive pulse sensing holds potential for efficient, versatile analysis and measurement of nano- and microparticles, while magnetic beads and particle aggregation play important roles in many prospective biosensing applications. PMID:22662090

Reproducing the observed energy-dependent structure of Earth's electron radiation belts during storm recovery with an event-specific diffusion model

DOE PAGES

Ripoll, J. -F.; Reeves, Geoffrey D.; Cunningham, Gregory Scott; ...

2016-06-11

Here, we present dynamic simulations of energy-dependent losses in the radiation belt “slot region” and the formation of the two-belt structure for the quiet days after the 1 March storm. The simulations combine radial diffusion with a realistic scattering model, based data-driven spatially and temporally resolved whistler-mode hiss wave observations from the Van Allen Probes satellites. The simulations reproduce Van Allen Probes observations for all energies and L shells (2–6) including (a) the strong energy dependence to the radiation belt dynamics (b) an energy-dependent outer boundary to the inner zone that extends to higher L shells at lower energies andmore » (c) an “S-shaped” energy-dependent inner boundary to the outer zone that results from the competition between diffusive radial transport and losses. We find that the characteristic energy-dependent structure of the radiation belts and slot region is dynamic and can be formed gradually in ~15 days, although the “S shape” can also be reproduced by assuming equilibrium conditions. The highest-energy electrons (E > 300 keV) of the inner region of the outer belt (L ~ 4–5) also constantly decay, demonstrating that hiss wave scattering affects the outer belt during times of extended plasmasphere. Through these simulations, we explain the full structure in energy and L shell of the belts and the slot formation by hiss scattering during storm recovery. We show the power and complexity of looking dynamically at the effects over all energies and L shells and the need for using data-driven and event-specific conditions.« less

A Framework for the Optimization of Discrete-Event Simulation Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joshi, B. D.; Unal, R.; White, N. H.; Morris, W. D.

1996-01-01

With the growing use of computer modeling and simulation, in all aspects of engineering, the scope of traditional optimization has to be extended to include simulation models. Some unique aspects have to be addressed while optimizing via stochastic simulation models. The optimization procedure has to explicitly account for the randomness inherent in the stochastic measures predicted by the model. This paper outlines a general purpose framework for optimization of terminating discrete-event simulation models. The methodology combines a chance constraint approach for problem formulation, together with standard statistical estimation and analyses techniques. The applicability of the optimization framework is illustrated by minimizing the operation and support resources of a launch vehicle, through a simulation model.

Comparison of ground motions from hybrid simulations to nga prediction equations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Star, L.M.; Stewart, J.P.; Graves, R.W.

2011-01-01

We compare simulated motions for a Mw 7.8 rupture scenario on the San Andreas Fault known as the ShakeOut event, two permutations with different hypocenter locations, and a Mw 7.15 Puente Hills blind thrust scenario, to median and dispersion predictions from empirical NGA ground motion prediction equations. We find the simulated motions attenuate faster with distance than is predicted by the NGA models for periods less than about 5.0 s After removing this distance attenuation bias, the average residuals of the simulated events (i.e., event terms) are generally within the scatter of empirical event terms, although the ShakeOut simulation appears to be a high static stress drop event. The intraevent dispersion in the simulations is lower than NGA values at short periods and abruptly increases at 1.0 s due to different simulation procedures at short and long periods. The simulated motions have a depth-dependent basin response similar to the NGA models, and also show complex effects in which stronger basin response occurs when the fault rupture transmits energy into a basin at low angle, which is not predicted by the NGA models. Rupture directivity effects are found to scale with the isochrone parameter ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Simulation of Orographically-Driven Precipitation in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carpenter, T. M.; Georgakakos, K. P.

2008-12-01

The proximity of the Pacific Ocean to the Transverse and Peninsular Mountain Ranges of coastal Southern California may lead to significant, orographically-enhanced precipitation in the region. With abundant moisture, such as evidenced in Pineapple Express events or atmospheric rivers, this precipitation may lead to other hydrologic hazards as flash flooding, landslides or debris flows. Available precipitation observation networks are relatively sparse in the mountainous regions and often do not capture the spatial variation of these events with high resolution. This study aims to simulate the topographically-driven precipitation over Southern California with high spatial resolution using a simplified orographic precipitation model. The model employs potential theory flow to estimate steady state three-dimensional wind fields for given free stream velocity forcing winds, atmospheric moisture advection, and cloud and precipitation microphysics proposed by Kessler (1969). The advantage of this modeling set-up is the computational efficiency as compared to regional mesoscale models such as the MM5. For this application, the Southern California region, comprised of the counties of Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego, and portions of San Bernardino and Riverside counties, are modeled at a 3-km resolution. The orographic precipitation model is forced by free stream wind velocities given by the 700mb winds from the NCEP Reanalysis I dataset. Atmospheric moisture initial conditions are defined also by the NCEP Reanalysis I dataset, and updated 4x- daily with the available 6-hourly NCEP Reanalysis forcing. This paper presents a comparison of the simulated precipitation to observations for over a variety of spatial scales and over the historical wet season periods from October 2000 to April 2005. The comparison is made over several performance measurements including (a) the occurrence/non-occurrence of precipitation, (b) overall bias and correlation, (c) bias and correlation for precipitation exceeding given thresholds, and (d) the frequency distributions of non-zero precipitation. The results of simulation performance are compared to reported results of other orographically-driven precipitation and regional mesoscale model studies within the Western U.S.

Improving Aircraft Refueling Procedures at Naval Air Station Oceana

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-01

Station (NAS) Oceana, VA, using aircraft waiting time for fuel as a measure of performance. We develop a computer-assisted discrete-event simulation to...Station (NAS) Oceana, VA, using aircraft waiting time for fuel as a measure of performance. We develop a computer-assisted discrete-event simulation...server queue, with general interarrival and service time distributions gpm Gallons per minute JDK Java development kit M/M/1 Single-server queue

Signatures of quiet Sun reconnection events in Ca II, Hα and Fe I

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shetye, J.; Shelyag, S.; Reid, A. L.; Scullion, E.; Doyle, J. G.; Arber, T. D.

2018-06-01

We use observations of quiet Sun (QS) regions in the Hα 6563 Å, Ca II 8542 Å and Fe I 6302 Å lines. We observe brightenings in the wings of the Hα and Ca II combined with observations of the interacting magnetic concentrations observed in the Stokes signals of Fe I. These brightenings are similar to Ellerman bombs (EBs), i.e. impulsive bursts in the wings of the Balmer lines which leave the line cores unaffected. Such enhancements suggest that these events have similar formation mechanisms to the classical EBs found in active regions, with the reduced intensity enhancements found in the QS regions due to a weaker feeding magnetic flux. The observations also show that the quiet Sun Ellerman bombs (QSEBs) are formed at a higher height in the upper photosphere than the photospheric continuum level. Using simulations, we investigate the formation mechanism associated with the events and suggest that these events are driven by the interaction of magnetic field-lines in the upper photospheric regions. The results of the simulation are in agreement with observations when comparing the light-curves, and in most cases we found that the peak in the Ca II 8542 Å wing occurred before the peak in Hα wing. Moreover, in some cases, the line profiles observed in Ca II are asymmetrical with a raised core profile. The source of heating in these events is shown by the MURaM simulations and is suggested to occur 430 km above the photosphere.

Climatological Impact of Atmospheric River Based on NARCCAP and DRI-RCM Datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mejia, J. F.; Perryman, N. M.

2012-12-01

This study evaluates spatial responses of extreme precipitation environments, typically associated with Atmospheric River events, using Regional Climate Model (RCM) output from NARCCAP dataset (50km grid size) and the Desert Research Institute-RCM simulations (36 and 12 km grid size). For this study, a pattern-detection algorithm was developed to characterize Atmospheric Rivers (ARs)-like features from climate models. Topological analysis of the enhanced elongated moisture flux (500-300hPa; daily means) cores is used to objectively characterize such AR features in two distinct groups: (i) zonal, north Pacific ARs, and (ii) subtropical ARs, also known as "Pineapple Express" events. We computed the climatological responses of the different RCMs upon these two AR groups, from which intricate differences among RCMs stand out. This study presents these climatological responses from historical and scenario driven simulations, as well as implications for precipitation extreme-value analyses.

Generalized ISAR--part I: an optimal method for imaging large naval vessels.

PubMed

Given, James A; Schmidt, William R

2005-11-01

We describe a generalized inverse synthetic aperture radar (ISAR) process that performs well under a wide variety of conditions common to the naval ISAR tests of large vessels. In particular, the generalized ISAR process performs well in the presence of moderate intensity ship roll. The process maps localized scatterers onto peaks on the ISAR plot. However, in a generalized ISAR plot, each of the two coordinates of a peak is a fixed linear combination of the three ship coordinates of the scatterer causing the peak. Combining this process with interferometry will then provide high-accuracy three-dimensional location of the important scatterers on a ship. We show that ISAR can be performed in the presence of simultaneous roll and aspect change, provided the two Doppler rates are not too close in magnitude. We derive the equations needed for generalized ISAR, both roll driven and aspect driven, and test them against simulations performed in a variety of conditions, including large roll amplitudes.

Uncertainty based modeling of rainfall-runoff: Combined differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) and K-means clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahmatkesh, Zahra; Karamouz, Mohammad; Nazif, Sara

2015-09-01

Simulation of rainfall-runoff process in urban areas is of great importance considering the consequences and damages of extreme runoff events and floods. The first issue in flood hazard analysis is rainfall simulation. Large scale climate signals have been proved to be effective in rainfall simulation and prediction. In this study, an integrated scheme is developed for rainfall-runoff modeling considering different sources of uncertainty. This scheme includes three main steps of rainfall forecasting, rainfall-runoff simulation and future runoff prediction. In the first step, data driven models are developed and used to forecast rainfall using large scale climate signals as rainfall predictors. Due to high effect of different sources of uncertainty on the output of hydrologic models, in the second step uncertainty associated with input data, model parameters and model structure is incorporated in rainfall-runoff modeling and simulation. Three rainfall-runoff simulation models are developed for consideration of model conceptual (structural) uncertainty in real time runoff forecasting. To analyze the uncertainty of the model structure, streamflows generated by alternative rainfall-runoff models are combined, through developing a weighting method based on K-means clustering. Model parameters and input uncertainty are investigated using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. Finally, calibrated rainfall-runoff models are driven using the forecasted rainfall to predict future runoff for the watershed. The proposed scheme is employed in the case study of the Bronx River watershed, New York City. Results of uncertainty analysis of rainfall-runoff modeling reveal that simultaneous estimation of model parameters and input uncertainty significantly changes the probability distribution of the model parameters. It is also observed that by combining the outputs of the hydrological models using the proposed clustering scheme, the accuracy of runoff simulation in the watershed is remarkably improved up to 50% in comparison to the simulations by the individual models. Results indicate that the developed methodology not only provides reliable tools for rainfall and runoff modeling, but also adequate time for incorporating required mitigation measures in dealing with potentially extreme runoff events and flood hazard. Results of this study can be used in identification of the main factors affecting flood hazard analysis.

A current-driven resistive instability and its nonlinear effects in simulations of coaxial helicity injection in a tokamak

DOE PAGES

Hooper, E. B.; Sovinec, C. R.

2016-10-06

An instability observed in whole-device, resistive magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the driven phase of coaxial helicity injection in the National Spherical Torus eXperiment is identified as a current-driven resistive mode in an unusual geometry that transiently generates a current sheet. The mode consists of plasma flow velocity and magnetic field eddies in a tube aligned with the magnetic field at the surface of the injected magnetic flux. At low plasma temperatures (~10–20 eV), the mode is benign, but at high temperatures (~100 eV) its amplitude undergoes relaxation oscillations, broadening the layer of injected current and flow at the surface of themore » injected toroidal flux and background plasma. The poloidal-field structure is affected and the magnetic surface closure is generally prevented while the mode undergoes relaxation oscillations during injection. Furthermore, this study describes the mode and uses linearized numerical computations and an analytic slab model to identify the unstable mode.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fujibayashi, Sho; Sekiguchi, Yuichiro; Kiuchi, Kenta

We performed general relativistic, long-term, axisymmetric neutrino radiation hydrodynamics simulations for the remnant formed after a binary neutron star merger, which consists of a massive neutron star and a torus surrounding it. As an initial condition, we employ the result derived in a three-dimensional, numerical relativity simulation for the binary neutron star merger. We investigate the properties of neutrino-driven ejecta. Due to the pair-annihilation heating, the dynamics of the neutrino-driven ejecta are significantly modified. The kinetic energy of the ejecta is about two times larger than that in the absence of pair-annihilation heating. This suggests that the pair-annihilation heating playsmore » an important role in the evolution of merger remnants. The relativistic outflow, which is required for driving gamma-ray bursts, is not observed because the specific heating rate around the rotational axis is not sufficiently high, due to the baryon loading caused by the neutrino-driven ejecta from the massive neutron star. We discuss the condition for launching the relativistic outflow and the nucleosynthesis in the ejecta.« less

Three-dimensional virtual acoustic displays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wenzel, Elizabeth M.

1991-01-01

The development of an alternative medium for displaying information in complex human-machine interfaces is described. The 3-D virtual acoustic display is a means for accurately transferring information to a human operator using the auditory modality; it combines directional and semantic characteristics to form naturalistic representations of dynamic objects and events in remotely sensed or simulated environments. Although the technology can stand alone, it is envisioned as a component of a larger multisensory environment and will no doubt find its greatest utility in that context. The general philosophy in the design of the display has been that the development of advanced computer interfaces should be driven first by an understanding of human perceptual requirements, and later by technological capabilities or constraints. In expanding on this view, current and potential uses are addressed of virtual acoustic displays, such displays are characterized, and recent approaches to their implementation and application are reviewed, the research project at NASA-Ames is described in detail, and finally some critical research issues for the future are outlined.

EMIR: a configurable hierarchical system for event monitoring and incident response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deich, William T. S.

2014-07-01

The Event Monitor and Incident Response system (emir) is a flexible, general-purpose system for monitoring and responding to all aspects of instrument, telescope, and general facility operations, and has been in use at the Automated Planet Finder telescope for two years. Responses to problems can include both passive actions (e.g. generating alerts) and active actions (e.g. modifying system settings). Emir includes a monitor-and-response daemon, plus graphical user interfaces and text-based clients that automatically configure themselves from data supplied at runtime by the daemon. The daemon is driven by a configuration file that describes each condition to be monitored, the actions to take when the condition is triggered, and how the conditions are aggregated into hierarchical groups of conditions. Emir has been implemented for the Keck Task Library (KTL) keyword-based systems used at Keck and Lick Observatories, but can be readily adapted to many event-driven architectures. This paper discusses the design and implementation of Emir , and the challenges in balancing the competing demands for simplicity, flexibility, power, and extensibility. Emir 's design lends itself well to multiple purposes, and in addition to its core monitor and response functions, it provides an effective framework for computing running statistics, aggregate values, and summary state values from the primitive state data generated by other subsystems, and even for creating quick-and-dirty control loops for simple systems.

Using in-situ observations of atmospheric water vapor isotopes to benchmark and isotope-enabled General Circulation Models and improve ice core paleo-climate reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steen-Larsen, Hans Christian; Sveinbjörnsdottir, Arny; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Werner, Martin; Risi, Camille; Yoshimura, Kei

2016-04-01

We have since 2010 carried out in-situ continuous water vapor isotope observations on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet (3 seasons at NEEM), in Svalbard (1 year), in Iceland (4 years), in Bermuda (4 years). The expansive dataset containing high accuracy and precision measurements of δ18O, δD, and the d-excess allow us to validate and benchmark the treatment of the atmospheric hydrological cycle's processes in General Circulation Models using simulations nudged to reanalysis products. Recent findings from both Antarctica and Greenland have documented strong interaction between the snow surface isotopes and the near surface atmospheric water vapor isotopes on diurnal to synoptic time scales. In fact, it has been shown that the snow surface isotopes take up the synoptic driven atmospheric water vapor isotopic signal in-between precipitation events, erasing the precipitation isotope signal in the surface snow. This highlights the importance of using General or Regional Climate Models, which accurately are able to simulate the atmospheric water vapor isotopic composition, to understand and interpret the ice core isotope signal. With this in mind we have used three isotope-enabled General Circulation Models (isoGSM, ECHAM5-wiso, and LMDZiso) nudged to reanalysis products. We have compared the simulations of daily mean isotope values directly with our in-situ observations. This has allowed us to characterize the variability of the isotopic composition in the models and compared it to our observations. We have specifically focused on the d-excess in order to characterize why both the mean and the variability is significantly lower than our observations. We argue that using water vapor isotopes to benchmark General Circulation Models offers an excellent tool for improving the treatment and parameterization of the atmospheric hydrological cycle. Recent studies have documented a very large inter-model dispersion in the treatment of the Arctic water cycle under a future global warming and greenhouse gas emission scenario. Our results call for action to create an international pan-Arctic monitoring water vapor isotope network in order to improve future projections of Arctic climate.

Coupled Leidenfrost states as a monodisperse granular clock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Rui; Yang, Mingcheng; Chen, Ke; Hou, Meiying; To, Kiwing

2016-08-01

Using an event-driven molecular dynamics simulation, we show that simple monodisperse granular beads confined in coupled columns may oscillate as a different type of granular clock. To trigger this oscillation, the system needs to be driven against gravity into a density-inverted state, with a high-density clustering phase supported from below by a gaslike low-density phase (Leidenfrost effect) in each column. Our analysis reveals that the density-inverted structure and the relaxation dynamics between the phases can amplify any small asymmetry between the columns, and lead to a giant oscillation. The oscillation occurs only for an intermediate range of the coupling strength, and the corresponding phase diagram can be universally described with a characteristic height of the density-inverted structure. A minimal two-phase model is proposed and a linear stability analysis shows that the triggering mechanism of the oscillation can be explained as a switchable two-parameter Andronov-Hopf bifurcation. Numerical solutions of the model also reproduce similar oscillatory dynamics to the simulation results.

Data-driven magnetohydrodynamic modelling of a flux-emerging active region leading to solar eruption

PubMed Central

Jiang, Chaowei; Wu, S. T.; Feng, Xuesheng; Hu, Qiang

2016-01-01

Solar eruptions are well-recognized as major drivers of space weather but what causes them remains an open question. Here we show how an eruption is initiated in a non-potential magnetic flux-emerging region using magnetohydrodynamic modelling driven directly by solar magnetograms. Our model simulates the coronal magnetic field following a long-duration quasi-static evolution to its fast eruption. The field morphology resembles a set of extreme ultraviolet images for the whole process. Study of the magnetic field suggests that in this event, the key transition from the pre-eruptive to eruptive state is due to the establishment of a positive feedback between the upward expansion of internal stressed magnetic arcades of new emergence and an external magnetic reconnection which triggers the eruption. Such a nearly realistic simulation of a solar eruption from origin to onset can provide important insight into its cause, and also has the potential for improving space weather modelling. PMID:27181846

Do strategic processes contribute to the specificity of future simulation in depression?

PubMed

Addis, Donna Rose; Hach, Sylvia; Tippett, Lynette J

2016-06-01

The tendency to generate overgeneral past or future events is characteristic of individuals with a history of depression. Although much research has investigated the contribution of rumination and avoidance to the reduced specificity of past events, comparatively little research has examined (1) whether the specificity of future events is differentially reduced in depression and (2) the role of executive functions in this phenomenon. Our study aimed to redress this imbalance. Participants with either current or past experience of depressive symptoms ('depressive group'; N = 24) and matched controls ('control group'; N = 24) completed tests of avoidance, rumination, and executive functions. A modified Autobiographical Memory Test was administered to assess the specificity of past and future events. The depressive group were more ruminative and avoidant than controls, but did not exhibit deficits in executive function. Although overall the depressive group generated significantly fewer specific events than controls, this reduction was driven by a significant group difference in future event specificity. Strategic retrieval processes were correlated with both past and future specificity, and predictive of the future specificity, whereas avoidance and rumination were not. Our findings demonstrate that future simulation appears to be particularly vulnerable to disruption in individuals with current or past experience of depressive symptoms, consistent with the notion that future simulation is more cognitively demanding than autobiographical memory retrieval. Moreover, our findings suggest that even subtle changes in executive functions such as strategic processes may impact the ability to imagine specific future events. Future simulation may be particularly vulnerable to executive dysfunction in individuals with current/previous depressive symptoms, with evidence of a differential reduction in the specificity of future events. Strategic retrieval abilities were associated with the degree of future event specificity whereas levels of rumination and avoidance were not. Given that the ability to generate specific simulations of the future is associated with enhanced psychological wellbeing, problem solving and coping behaviours, understanding how to increase the specificity of future simulations in depression is an important direction for future research and clinical practice. Interventions focusing on improving the ability to engage strategic processes may be a fruitful avenue for increasing the ability to imagine specific future events in depression. The autobiographical event tasks have somewhat limited ecological validity as they do not account for the many social and environmental cues present in everyday life; the development of more clinically-relevant tasks may be of benefit to this area of study. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

An Event-Based Approach to Design a Teamwork Training Scenario and Assessment Tool in Surgery.

PubMed

Nguyen, Ngan; Watson, William D; Dominguez, Edward

2016-01-01

Simulation is a technique recommended for teaching and measuring teamwork, but few published methodologies are available on how best to design simulation for teamwork training in surgery and health care in general. The purpose of this article is to describe a general methodology, called event-based approach to training (EBAT), to guide the design of simulation for teamwork training and discuss its application to surgery. The EBAT methodology draws on the science of training by systematically introducing training exercise events that are linked to training requirements (i.e., competencies being trained and learning objectives) and performance assessment. The EBAT process involves: Of the 4 teamwork competencies endorsed by the Agency for Healthcare Research Quality and Department of Defense, "communication" was chosen to be the focus of our training efforts. A total of 5 learning objectives were defined based on 5 validated teamwork and communication techniques. Diagnostic laparoscopy was chosen as the clinical context to frame the training scenario, and 29 KSAs were defined based on review of published literature on patient safety and input from subject matter experts. Critical events included those that correspond to a specific phase in the normal flow of a surgical procedure as well as clinical events that may occur when performing the operation. Similar to the targeted KSAs, targeted responses to the critical events were developed based on existing literature and gathering input from content experts. Finally, a 29-item EBAT-derived checklist was created to assess communication performance. Like any instructional tool, simulation is only effective if it is designed and implemented appropriately. It is recognized that the effectiveness of simulation depends on whether (1) it is built upon a theoretical framework, (2) it uses preplanned structured exercises or events to allow learners the opportunity to exhibit the targeted KSAs, (3) it assesses performance, and (4) it provides formative and constructive feedback to bridge the gap between the learners' KSAs and the targeted KSAs. The EBAT methodology guides the design of simulation that incorporates these 4 features and, thus, enhances training effectiveness with simulation. Copyright © 2015 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A formal language for the specification and verification of synchronous and asynchronous circuits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russinoff, David M.

1993-01-01

A formal hardware description language for the intended application of verifiable asynchronous communication is described. The language is developed within the logical framework of the Nqthm system of Boyer and Moore and is based on the event-driven behavioral model of VHDL, including the basic VHDL signal propagation mechanisms, the notion of simulation deltas, and the VHDL simulation cycle. A core subset of the language corresponds closely with a subset of VHDL and is adequate for the realistic gate-level modeling of both combinational and sequential circuits. Various extensions to this subset provide means for convenient expression of behavioral circuit specifications.

Ion Acceleration by Flux Transfer Events in the Terrestrial Magnetosheath

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarvinen, R.; Vainio, R.; Palmroth, M.; Juusola, L.; Hoilijoki, S.; Pfau-Kempf, Y.; Ganse, U.; Turc, L.; von Alfthan, S.

2018-02-01

We report ion acceleration by flux transfer events in the terrestrial magnetosheath in a global two-dimensional hybrid-Vlasov polar plane simulation of Earth's solar wind interaction. In the model we find that propagating flux transfer events created in magnetic reconnection at the dayside magnetopause drive fast-mode bow waves in the magnetosheath, which accelerate ions in the shocked solar wind flow. The acceleration at the bow waves is caused by a shock drift-like acceleration process under stationary solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field upstream conditions. Thus, the energization is not externally driven but results from plasma dynamics within the magnetosheath. Energetic proton populations reach the energy of 30 keV, and their velocity distributions resemble time-energy dispersive ion injections observed by the Cluster spacecraft in the magnetosheath.

Calculation of wind-driven surface currents in the North Atlantic Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rees, T. H.; Turner, R. E.

1976-01-01

Calculations to simulate the wind driven near surface currents of the North Atlantic Ocean are described. The primitive equations were integrated on a finite difference grid with a horizontal resolution of 2.5 deg in longitude and latitude. The model ocean was homogeneous with a uniform depth of 100 m and with five levels in the vertical direction. A form of the rigid-lid approximation was applied. Generally, the computed surface current patterns agreed with observed currents. The development of a subsurface equatorial countercurrent was observed.

Hydrologic response to multimodel climate output using a physically based model of groundwater/surface water interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulis, M.; Paniconi, C.; Marrocu, M.; Huard, D.; Chaumont, D.

2012-12-01

General circulation models (GCMs) are the primary instruments for obtaining projections of future global climate change. Outputs from GCMs, aided by dynamical and/or statistical downscaling techniques, have long been used to simulate changes in regional climate systems over wide spatiotemporal scales. Numerous studies have acknowledged the disagreements between the various GCMs and between the different downscaling methods designed to compensate for the mismatch between climate model output and the spatial scale at which hydrological models are applied. Very little is known, however, about the importance of these differences once they have been input or assimilated by a nonlinear hydrological model. This issue is investigated here at the catchment scale using a process-based model of integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic response driven by outputs from 12 members of a multimodel climate ensemble. The data set consists of daily values of precipitation and min/max temperatures obtained by combining four regional climate models and five GCMs. The regional scenarios were downscaled using a quantile scaling bias-correction technique. The hydrologic response was simulated for the 690 km2des Anglais catchment in southwestern Quebec, Canada. The results show that different hydrological components (river discharge, aquifer recharge, and soil moisture storage) respond differently to precipitation and temperature anomalies in the multimodel climate output, with greater variability for annual discharge compared to recharge and soil moisture storage. We also find that runoff generation and extreme event-driven peak hydrograph flows are highly sensitive to any uncertainty in climate data. Finally, the results show the significant impact of changing sequences of rainy days on groundwater recharge fluxes and the influence of longer dry spells in modifying soil moisture spatial variability.

Basic Concepts and Definitions for Privacy and Confidentiality in Student Education Records. SLDS Technical Brief 1. NCES 2011-601

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Center for Education Statistics, 2010

2010-01-01

The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is launching a new series of Technical Briefs on various aspects of the protection of personally identifiable information in students' education records. While driven by recent events, the principles and practices that are outlined in this series can be applied more generally to personally…

Symmetry breaking, phase separation and anomalous fluctuations in driven granular gas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meerson, Baruch; Pöschel, Thorsten; Sasorov, Pavel V.; Schwager, Thomas

2003-03-01

What is the role of noise, caused by the discrete nature of particles, in granular dynamics? We address this question by considering a simple driven granular system: an ensemble of nearly elastically colliding hard spheres in a rectangular box, driven by a rapidly vibrating side wall at zero gravity. The elementary state of this system is a strip of enhanced particle density away from the driving wall. Granular hydrodynamics (GHD) predicts a symmetry breaking instability of this state, when the aspect ratio of the confining box exceeds a threshold value, while the average density of the gas is within a ``spinodal interval". At large aspect ratios this instability leads to phase separation similar to that in van der Waals gas. In the present work (see cond-mat/0208286) we focus on the system behavior around the threshold of the symmetry-breaking instability. We put GHD into a quantitative test by performing extensive event-driven molecular dynamic simulations in 2D. Please watch the movies of the simulations at http://summa.physik.hu-berlin.de/ kies/HD/. We found that the supercritical bifurcation curve, predicted by GHD, agrees with the simulations well below and well above the instability threshold. In a wide region of aspect ratios around the threshold the system is dominated by fluctuations. We checked that the fluctuation strength goes down when the number of particles increases. However, fluctuations remain strong (and the critical region wide) even for as many as 4 ot 10^4 particles. We conclude by suggesting that fluctuations may put a severe limitation on the validity of continuum theories of granular flow in systems with a moderately large number of particles.

The first super geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 24: "The St. Patrick day (17 March 2015)" event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, C. C.; Liou, K.; Socker, D. G.; Howard, R.; Jackson, B. V.; Yu, H. S.; Hutting, L.; Plunkett, S. P.

2015-12-01

The first super geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 24 occurred on the "St. Patrick's day" (17 March 2015). Notably, it was a two-step storm. The source of the storm can be traced back to the solar event on March 15, 2015. At ~2:10 UT on that day, SOHO/LASCO C3 recorded a partial halo corona mass ejection (CME) which was associated with a C9.1/1F flare (S22W25) and a series of type II/IV radio bursts. The propagation speed of this CME is estimated to be ~668 km/s during 02:10 - 06:20 UT (Figure 1). An interplanetary (IP) shock, likely driven by the CME, arrived at the Wind spacecraft at 03:59 UT on 17 March (Figure 2). The arrival of the IP shock at the Earth may have caused a sudden storm commencement (SSC) at 04:45 UT on March 17. The storm intensified (Dst dropped to -80 nT at ~10:00 UT) during the crossing of the CME sheath. Later, the storm recovered slightly (Dst ~ -50 nT) after the IMF turned northward. At 11:01 UT, IMF started turning southward again due to the large magnetic cloud (MC) field itself and caused the second storm intensification, reaching Dst = - 228 nT on March 18. We conclude that the St. Patrick day event is a two-step storm. The first step is associated with the sheath, whereas the second step is associated with the MC. Here, we employ a numerical simulation using the global, three-dimensional (3D), time-dependent, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model (H3DMHD, Wu et al. 2007) to study the CME propagation from the Sun to the Earth. The H3DMHD model has been modified so that it can be driven by (solar wind) data at the inner boundary of the computational domain. In this study, we use time varying, 3D solar wind velocity and density reconstructed from STELab, Japan interplanetary scintillation (IPS) data by the University of California, San Diego, and magnetic field at the IPS inner boundary provided by CSSS model closed-loop propagation (Jackson et a., 2015). The simulation result matches well with the in situ solar wind plasma and field data at Wind, in terms of the peak values of the IP shock and its arrival time (Figure 3). The simulation not only helps us to identify the driver of the IP shock, but also demonstrates that the modified H3DMHD model is capable of realistic simulations of large solar event. In this presentation, we will discuss the CME/storm event with detailed data from observations (Wind and SOHO) and our numerical simulation.

Data-driven event-by-event respiratory motion correction using TOF PET list-mode centroid of distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Silin; Jin, Xiao; Chan, Chung; Jian, Yiqiang; Mulnix, Tim; Liu, Chi; E Carson, Richard

2017-06-01

Data-driven respiratory gating techniques were developed to correct for respiratory motion in PET studies, without the help of external motion tracking systems. Due to the greatly increased image noise in gated reconstructions, it is desirable to develop a data-driven event-by-event respiratory motion correction method. In this study, using the Centroid-of-distribution (COD) algorithm, we established a data-driven event-by-event respiratory motion correction technique using TOF PET list-mode data, and investigated its performance by comparing with an external system-based correction method. Ten human scans with the pancreatic β-cell tracer 18F-FP-(+)-DTBZ were employed. Data-driven respiratory motions in superior-inferior (SI) and anterior-posterior (AP) directions were first determined by computing the centroid of all radioactive events during each short time frame with further processing. The Anzai belt system was employed to record respiratory motion in all studies. COD traces in both SI and AP directions were first compared with Anzai traces by computing the Pearson correlation coefficients. Then, respiratory gated reconstructions based on either COD or Anzai traces were performed to evaluate their relative performance in capturing respiratory motion. Finally, based on correlations of displacements of organ locations in all directions and COD information, continuous 3D internal organ motion in SI and AP directions was calculated based on COD traces to guide event-by-event respiratory motion correction in the MOLAR reconstruction framework. Continuous respiratory correction results based on COD were compared with that based on Anzai, and without motion correction. Data-driven COD traces showed a good correlation with Anzai in both SI and AP directions for the majority of studies, with correlation coefficients ranging from 63% to 89%. Based on the determined respiratory displacements of pancreas between end-expiration and end-inspiration from gated reconstructions, there was no significant difference between COD-based and Anzai-based methods. Finally, data-driven COD-based event-by-event respiratory motion correction yielded comparable results to that based on Anzai respiratory traces, in terms of contrast recovery and reduced motion-induced blur. Data-driven event-by-event respiratory motion correction using COD showed significant image quality improvement compared with reconstructions with no motion correction, and gave comparable results to the Anzai-based method.

Data-driven event-by-event respiratory motion correction using TOF PET list-mode centroid of distribution.

PubMed

Ren, Silin; Jin, Xiao; Chan, Chung; Jian, Yiqiang; Mulnix, Tim; Liu, Chi; Carson, Richard E

2017-06-21

Data-driven respiratory gating techniques were developed to correct for respiratory motion in PET studies, without the help of external motion tracking systems. Due to the greatly increased image noise in gated reconstructions, it is desirable to develop a data-driven event-by-event respiratory motion correction method. In this study, using the Centroid-of-distribution (COD) algorithm, we established a data-driven event-by-event respiratory motion correction technique using TOF PET list-mode data, and investigated its performance by comparing with an external system-based correction method. Ten human scans with the pancreatic β-cell tracer 18 F-FP-(+)-DTBZ were employed. Data-driven respiratory motions in superior-inferior (SI) and anterior-posterior (AP) directions were first determined by computing the centroid of all radioactive events during each short time frame with further processing. The Anzai belt system was employed to record respiratory motion in all studies. COD traces in both SI and AP directions were first compared with Anzai traces by computing the Pearson correlation coefficients. Then, respiratory gated reconstructions based on either COD or Anzai traces were performed to evaluate their relative performance in capturing respiratory motion. Finally, based on correlations of displacements of organ locations in all directions and COD information, continuous 3D internal organ motion in SI and AP directions was calculated based on COD traces to guide event-by-event respiratory motion correction in the MOLAR reconstruction framework. Continuous respiratory correction results based on COD were compared with that based on Anzai, and without motion correction. Data-driven COD traces showed a good correlation with Anzai in both SI and AP directions for the majority of studies, with correlation coefficients ranging from 63% to 89%. Based on the determined respiratory displacements of pancreas between end-expiration and end-inspiration from gated reconstructions, there was no significant difference between COD-based and Anzai-based methods. Finally, data-driven COD-based event-by-event respiratory motion correction yielded comparable results to that based on Anzai respiratory traces, in terms of contrast recovery and reduced motion-induced blur. Data-driven event-by-event respiratory motion correction using COD showed significant image quality improvement compared with reconstructions with no motion correction, and gave comparable results to the Anzai-based method.

Smackdown: Adventures in Simulation Standards and Interoperability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elfrey, Priscilla R.; Zacharewicz, Gregory; Ni, marcus

2011-01-01

The paucity of existing employer-driven simulation education and the need for workers broadly trained in Modeling & Simulation (M&S) poses a critical need that the simulation community as a whole must address. This paper will describe how this need became an impetus for a new inter-university activity that allows students to learn about simulation by doing it. The event, called Smackdown, was demonstrated for the first time in April at the Spring Simulation Multi-conference. Smackdown is an adventure in international cooperation. Students and faculty took part from the US and Europe supported by IEEE/SISO standards, industry software and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) content of are supply mission to the Moon. The developers see Smackdown providing all participants with a memorable, interactive, problem-solving experience, which can contribute, importantly to the workforce of the future. This is part of the larger need to increase undergraduate education in simulation and could be a prime candidate for senior design projects.

Numerical Relativity Simulations for Black Hole Merger Astrophysics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, John G.

2010-01-01

Massive black hole mergers are perhaps the most energetic astronomical events, establishing their importance as gravitational wave sources for LISA, and also possibly leading to observable influences on their local environments. Advances in numerical relativity over the last five years have fueled the development of a rich physical understanding of general relativity's predictions for these events. Z will overview the understanding of these event emerging from numerical simulation studies. These simulations elucidate the pre-merger dynamics of the black hole binaries, the consequent gravitational waveform signatures ' and the resulting state, including its kick velocity, for the final black hole produced by the merger. Scenarios are now being considered for observing each of these aspects of the merger, involving both gravitational-wave and electromagnetic astronomy.

Distributed convex optimisation with event-triggered communication in networked systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiayun; Chen, Weisheng

2016-12-01

This paper studies the distributed convex optimisation problem over directed networks. Motivated by practical considerations, we propose a novel distributed zero-gradient-sum optimisation algorithm with event-triggered communication. Therefore, communication and control updates just occur at discrete instants when some predefined condition satisfies. Thus, compared with the time-driven distributed optimisation algorithms, the proposed algorithm has the advantages of less energy consumption and less communication cost. Based on Lyapunov approaches, we show that the proposed algorithm makes the system states asymptotically converge to the solution of the problem exponentially fast and the Zeno behaviour is excluded. Finally, simulation example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Modelled glacier dynamics over the last quarter of a century at Jakobshavn Isbræ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muresan, Ioana S.; Khan, Shfaqat A.; Aschwanden, Andy; Khroulev, Constantine; Van Dam, Tonie; Bamber, Jonathan; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Wouters, Bert; Kuipers Munneke, Peter; Kjær, Kurt H.

2016-03-01

Observations over the past 2 decades show substantial ice loss associated with the speed-up of marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland. Here we use a regional three-dimensional outlet glacier model to simulate the behaviour of Jakobshavn Isbræ (JI) located in western Greenland. Our approach is to model and understand the recent behaviour of JI with a physical process-based model. Using atmospheric forcing and an ocean parametrization we tune our model to reproduce observed frontal changes of JI during 1990-2014. In our simulations, most of the JI retreat during 1990-2014 is driven by the ocean parametrization used and the glacier's subsequent response, which is largely governed by bed geometry. In general, the study shows significant progress in modelling the temporal variability of the flow at JI. Our results suggest that the overall variability in modelled horizontal velocities is a response to variations in terminus position. The model simulates two major accelerations that are consistent with observations of changes in glacier terminus. The first event occurred in 1998 and was triggered by a retreat of the front and moderate thinning of JI prior to 1998. The second event, which started in 2003 and peaked in the summer 2004, was triggered by the final break-up of the floating tongue. This break-up reduced the buttressing at the JI terminus that resulted in further thinning. As the terminus retreated over a reverse bed slope into deeper water, sustained high velocities over the last decade have been observed at JI. Our model provides evidence that the 1998 and 2003 flow accelerations are most likely initiated by the ocean parametrization used but JI's subsequent dynamic response was governed by its own bed geometry. We are unable to reproduce the observed 2010-2012 terminus retreat in our simulations. We attribute this limitation to either inaccuracies in basal topography or to misrepresentations of the climatic forcings that were applied. Nevertheless, the model is able to simulate the previously observed increase in mass loss through 2014.

The TRIDEC Virtual Tsunami Atlas - customized value-added simulation data products for Tsunami Early Warning generated on compute clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löwe, P.; Hammitzsch, M.; Babeyko, A.; Wächter, J.

2012-04-01

The development of new Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) requires the modelling of spatio-temporal spreading of tsunami waves both recorded from past events and hypothetical future cases. The model results are maintained in digital repositories for use in TEWS command and control units for situation assessment once a real tsunami occurs. Thus the simulation results must be absolutely trustworthy, in a sense that the quality of these datasets is assured. This is a prerequisite as solid decision making during a crisis event and the dissemination of dependable warning messages to communities under risk will be based on them. This requires data format validity, but even more the integrity and information value of the content, being a derived value-added product derived from raw tsunami model output. Quality checking of simulation result products can be done in multiple ways, yet the visual verification of both temporal and spatial spreading characteristics for each simulation remains important. The eye of the human observer still remains an unmatched tool for the detection of irregularities. This requires the availability of convenient, human-accessible mappings of each simulation. The improvement of tsunami models necessitates the changes in many variables, including simulation end-parameters. Whenever new improved iterations of the general models or underlying spatial data are evaluated, hundreds to thousands of tsunami model results must be generated for each model iteration, each one having distinct initial parameter settings. The use of a Compute Cluster Environment (CCE) of sufficient size allows the automated generation of all tsunami-results within model iterations in little time. This is a significant improvement to linear processing on dedicated desktop machines or servers. This allows for accelerated/improved visual quality checking iterations, which in turn can provide a positive feedback into the overall model improvement iteratively. An approach to set-up and utilize the CCE has been implemented by the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC) funded under the European Union's FP7. TRIDEC focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management. The addressed challenges include the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources with accelerated generation of large volumes of data. These include sensor systems, geo-information repositories, simulations and data fusion tools. Additionally, TRIDEC adopts enhancements of Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) principles in terms of Event Driven Architecture (EDA) design. As a next step the implemented CCE's services to generate derived and customized simulation products are foreseen to be provided via an EDA service for on-demand processing for specific threat-parameters and to accommodate for model improvements.

Biomass burning aerosols and the low-visibility events in Southeast Asia

DOE PAGES

Lee, Hsiang-He; Bar-Or, Rotem Z.; Wang, Chien

2017-01-23

Fires including peatland burning in Southeast Asia have become a major concern to the general public as well as governments in the region. This is because aerosols emitted from such fires can cause persistent haze events under certain weather conditions in downwind locations, degrading visibility and causing human health issues. In order to improve our understanding of the spatiotemporal coverage and influence of biomass burning aerosols in Southeast Asia, we have used surface visibility and particulate matter concentration observations, supplemented by decade-long (2003 to 2014) simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a fire aerosol module, driven bymore » high-resolution biomass burning emission inventories. We find that in the past decade, fire aerosols are responsible for nearly all events with very low visibility (< 7 km). Fire aerosols alone are also responsible for a substantial fraction of low-visibility events (visibility  < 10 km) in the major metropolitan areas of Southeast Asia: up to 39 % in Bangkok, 36 % in Kuala Lumpur, and 34 % in Singapore. Biomass burning in mainland Southeast Asia accounts for the largest contribution to total fire-produced PM 2.5 in Bangkok (99 %), while biomass burning in Sumatra is a major contributor to fire-produced PM 2.5 in Kuala Lumpur (50 %) and Singapore (41 %). To examine the general situation across the region, we have further defined and derived a new integrated metric for 50 cities of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN): the haze exposure day (HED), which measures the annual exposure days of these cities to low visibility (< 10 km) caused by particulate matter pollution. It is shown that HEDs have increased steadily in the past decade across cities with both high and low populations. Fire events alone are found to be responsible for up to about half of the total HEDs. Our results suggest that in order to improve the overall air quality in Southeast Asia, mitigation policies targeting both biomass burning and fossil fuel burning sources need to be implemented.« less

Biomass burning aerosols and the low-visibility events in Southeast Asia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Hsiang-He; Bar-Or, Rotem Z.; Wang, Chien

Fires including peatland burning in Southeast Asia have become a major concern to the general public as well as governments in the region. This is because aerosols emitted from such fires can cause persistent haze events under certain weather conditions in downwind locations, degrading visibility and causing human health issues. In order to improve our understanding of the spatiotemporal coverage and influence of biomass burning aerosols in Southeast Asia, we have used surface visibility and particulate matter concentration observations, supplemented by decade-long (2003 to 2014) simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a fire aerosol module, driven bymore » high-resolution biomass burning emission inventories. We find that in the past decade, fire aerosols are responsible for nearly all events with very low visibility (< 7 km). Fire aerosols alone are also responsible for a substantial fraction of low-visibility events (visibility  < 10 km) in the major metropolitan areas of Southeast Asia: up to 39 % in Bangkok, 36 % in Kuala Lumpur, and 34 % in Singapore. Biomass burning in mainland Southeast Asia accounts for the largest contribution to total fire-produced PM 2.5 in Bangkok (99 %), while biomass burning in Sumatra is a major contributor to fire-produced PM 2.5 in Kuala Lumpur (50 %) and Singapore (41 %). To examine the general situation across the region, we have further defined and derived a new integrated metric for 50 cities of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN): the haze exposure day (HED), which measures the annual exposure days of these cities to low visibility (< 10 km) caused by particulate matter pollution. It is shown that HEDs have increased steadily in the past decade across cities with both high and low populations. Fire events alone are found to be responsible for up to about half of the total HEDs. Our results suggest that in order to improve the overall air quality in Southeast Asia, mitigation policies targeting both biomass burning and fossil fuel burning sources need to be implemented.« less

Simultaneous Modeling of Gradual SEP Events at the Earth and the Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, J.; Li, G.

2017-12-01

Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) event is the number one space hazard for spacecraft instruments and astronauts' safety. Recent studies have shown that both longitudinal and radial extent of SEP events can be very significant. In this work, we use the improved Particle Acceleration and Transport in the Heliosphere (iPATH) model to simulate gradual SEP events that have impacts upon both the Earth and the Mars. We follow the propagation of a 2D CME-driven shock. Particles are accelerated at the shock via the diffusive shock acceleration (DSA) mechanism. Transport of the escaped particles to the Earth and the Mars is then followed using a backward stochastic differential equation method. Perpendicular diffusion is considered in both the DSA and the transport process. Model results such as time intensity profile and energetic particle spectrum at the two locations are compared to understand the spatial extent of an SEP event. Observational data at the Earth and the Mars are also studied to validate the model.

Asymptotic Dynamics of Self-driven Vehicles in a Closed Boundary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Chi-Lun; Huang, Chia-Ling

2011-08-01

We study the asymptotic dynamics of self-driven vehicles in a loop using a car-following model with the consideration of volume exclusions. In particular, we derive the dynamical steady states for the single-cluster case and obtain the corresponding fundamental diagrams, exhibiting two branches representative of entering and leaving the jam, respectively. By simulations we find that the speed average over all vehicles eventually reaches the same value, regardless of final clustering states. The autocorrelation functions for overall speed average and single-vehicle speed are studied, each revealing a unique time scale. We also discuss the role of noises in vehicular accelerations. Based on our observations we give trial definitions about the degree of chaoticity for general self-driven many-body systems.

Heinrich events simulated across the glacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziemen, F. A.; Mikolajewicz, U.

2015-12-01

Heinrich events are among the most prominent climate change events recorded in proxies across the northern hemisphere. They are the archetype of ice sheet — climate interactions on millennial time scales. Nevertheless, the exact mechanisms that cause Heinrich events are still under discussion, and their climatic consequences are far from being fully understood. We contribute to answering the open questions by studying Heinrich events in a coupled ice sheet model (ISM) atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM) framework, where this variability occurs as part of the model generated internal variability. The setup consists of a northern hemisphere setup of the modified Parallel Ice Sheet Model (mPISM) coupled to the global AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ. The simulations were performed fully coupled and with transient orbital and greenhouse gas forcing. They span from several millennia before the last glacial maximum into the deglaciation. We analyze simulations where the ISM is coupled asynchronously to the AOVGCM and simulations where the ISM and the ocean model are coupled synchronously and the atmosphere model is coupled asynchronously to them. The modeled Heinrich events show a marked influence of the ice discharge on the Atlantic circulation and heat transport.

Adjusting skewness and maximum 0.5 hour intensity in CLIGEN to improve extreme event and sub-daily intensity generation for assessing climate change impacts

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Both measured data and GCM/RCM projections show an general increasing trend in extreme rainfall events as temperature rises in US. Proper simulation of extreme events is particularly important for assessing climate change impacts on soil erosion and hydrology. The objective of this paper is to fin...

Simulation of quantum dynamics based on the quantum stochastic differential equation.

PubMed

Li, Ming

2013-01-01

The quantum stochastic differential equation derived from the Lindblad form quantum master equation is investigated. The general formulation in terms of environment operators representing the quantum state diffusion is given. The numerical simulation algorithm of stochastic process of direct photodetection of a driven two-level system for the predictions of the dynamical behavior is proposed. The effectiveness and superiority of the algorithm are verified by the performance analysis of the accuracy and the computational cost in comparison with the classical Runge-Kutta algorithm.

Event-chain Monte Carlo algorithms for three- and many-particle interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harland, J.; Michel, M.; Kampmann, T. A.; Kierfeld, J.

2017-02-01

We generalize the rejection-free event-chain Monte Carlo algorithm from many-particle systems with pairwise interactions to systems with arbitrary three- or many-particle interactions. We introduce generalized lifting probabilities between particles and obtain a general set of equations for lifting probabilities, the solution of which guarantees maximal global balance. We validate the resulting three-particle event-chain Monte Carlo algorithms on three different systems by comparison with conventional local Monte Carlo simulations: i) a test system of three particles with a three-particle interaction that depends on the enclosed triangle area; ii) a hard-needle system in two dimensions, where needle interactions constitute three-particle interactions of the needle end points; iii) a semiflexible polymer chain with a bending energy, which constitutes a three-particle interaction of neighboring chain beads. The examples demonstrate that the generalization to many-particle interactions broadens the applicability of event-chain algorithms considerably.

Simulation of seasonal US precipitation and temperature by the nested CWRF-ECHAM system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ligang; Liang, Xin-Zhong; DeWitt, David; Samel, Arthur N.; Wang, Julian X. L.

2016-02-01

This study investigates the refined simulation skill that results when the regional Climate extension of the Weather Research and Forecasting (CWRF) model is nested in the ECMWF Hamburg version 4.5 (ECHAM) atmospheric general circulation model over the United States during 1980-2009, where observed sea surface temperatures are used in both models. Over the contiguous US, for each of the four seasons from winter to fall, CWRF reduces the root mean square error of the ECHAM seasonal mean surface air temperature simulation by 0.19, 0.82, 2.02 and 1.85 °C, and increases the equitable threat score of seasonal mean precipitation by 0.18, 0.11, 0.09 and 0.12. CWRF also simulates much more realistically daily precipitation frequency and heavy precipitation events, typically over the Central Great Plains, Cascade Mountains and Gulf Coast States. These CWRF skill enhancements are attributed to the increased spatial resolution and physics refinements in representing orographic, terrestrial hydrology, convection, and cloud-aerosol-radiation effects and their interactions. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of seasonal mean precipitation and surface air temperature interannual variability shows that, in general, CWRF substantially improves the spatial distribution of both quantities, while temporal evolution (i.e. interannual variability) of the first 3 primary patterns is highly correlated with that of the driving ECHAM (except for summer precipitation), and they both have low temporal correlations against observations. During winter, when large-scale forcing dominates, both models also have similar responses to strong ENSO signals where they successfully capture observed precipitation composite anomalies but substantially fail to reproduce surface air temperature anomalies. When driven by the ECMWF Reanalysis Interim, CWRF produces a very realistic interannual evolution of large-scale precipitation and surface air temperature patterns where the temporal correlations with observations are significant. These results indicate that CWRF can greatly improve mesoscale regional climate structures but it cannot change interannual variations of the large-scale patterns, which are determined by the driving lateral boundary conditions.

Ocean Chlorophyll as a Precursor of ENSO: An Earth System Modeling Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Jong-Yeon; Dunne, John P.; Stock, Charles A.

2018-02-01

Ocean chlorophyll concentration, a proxy for phytoplankton, is strongly influenced by internal ocean dynamics such as those associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Observations show that ocean chlorophyll responses to ENSO generally lead sea surface temperature (SST) responses in the equatorial Pacific. A long-term global Earth system model simulation incorporating marine biogeochemical processes also exhibits a preceding chlorophyll response. In contrast to simulated SST anomalies, which significantly lag the wind-driven subsurface heat response to ENSO, chlorophyll anomalies respond rapidly. Iron was found to be the key factor connecting the simulated surface chlorophyll anomalies to the subsurface ocean response. Westerly wind bursts decrease central Pacific chlorophyll by reducing iron supply through wind-driven thermocline deepening but increase western Pacific chlorophyll by enhancing the influx of coastal iron from the maritime continent. Our results mechanistically support the potential for chlorophyll-based indices to inform seasonal ENSO forecasts beyond previously identified SST-based indices.

Extreme events and event size fluctuations in biased random walks on networks.

PubMed

Kishore, Vimal; Santhanam, M S; Amritkar, R E

2012-05-01

Random walk on discrete lattice models is important to understand various types of transport processes. The extreme events, defined as exceedences of the flux of walkers above a prescribed threshold, have been studied recently in the context of complex networks. This was motivated by the occurrence of rare events such as traffic jams, floods, and power blackouts which take place on networks. In this work, we study extreme events in a generalized random walk model in which the walk is preferentially biased by the network topology. The walkers preferentially choose to hop toward the hubs or small degree nodes. In this setting, we show that extremely large fluctuations in event sizes are possible on small degree nodes when the walkers are biased toward the hubs. In particular, we obtain the distribution of event sizes on the network. Further, the probability for the occurrence of extreme events on any node in the network depends on its "generalized strength," a measure of the ability of a node to attract walkers. The generalized strength is a function of the degree of the node and that of its nearest neighbors. We obtain analytical and simulation results for the probability of occurrence of extreme events on the nodes of a network using a generalized random walk model. The result reveals that the nodes with a larger value of generalized strength, on average, display lower probability for the occurrence of extreme events compared to the nodes with lower values of generalized strength.

Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics-based Wind Representation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prescott, Steven; Smith, Curtis; Hess, Stephen

2016-12-01

As a result of the 2011 accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP and other operational NPP experience, there is an identified need to better characterize and evaluate the potential impacts of externally generated hazards on NPP safety. Due to the ubiquitous occurrence of high winds around the world and the possible extreme magnitude of the hazard that has been observed, the assessment of the impact of the high-winds hazard has been identified as an important activity by both NPP owner-operators and regulatory authorities. However, recent experience obtained from the conduct of high-winds risk assessments indicates that such activities have beenmore » both labor-intensive and expensive to perform. Additionally, the existing suite of methods and tools to conduct such assessments (which were developed decades ago) do not make use of modern computational architectures (e.g., parallel processing, object-oriented programming techniques, or simple user interfaces) or methods (e.g., efficient and robust numerical-solution schemes). As a result, the current suite of methods and tools will rapidly become obsolete. Physics-based 3D simulation methods can provide information to assist in the RISMC PRA methodology. This research is intended to determine what benefits SPH methods could bring to high-winds simulations for the purposes of assessing their potential impact on NPP safety. The initial investigation has determined that SPH can simulate key areas of high-wind events with reasonable accuracy, compared to other methods. Some problems, such as simulation voids, need to be addressed, but possible solutions have been identified and will be tested with continued work. This work also demonstrated that SPH simulations can provide a means for simulating debris movement; however, further investigations into the capability to determine the impact of high winds and the impacts of wind-driven debris that lead to SSC failures need to be done. SPH simulations alone would be limited in size and computation time. An advanced method of combing results from grid-based methods with SPH through a data-driven model is proposed. This method could allow for more accurate simulation of particle movement near rigid bodies even with larger SPH particle sizes. If successful, the data-driven model would eliminate the need for a SPH turbulence model and increase the simulation domain size. Continued research beyond the scope of this project will be needed in order to determine the viability of a data-driven model.« less

Analysis of Voyager Observed High-Energy Electron Fluxes in the Heliosheath Using MHD Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Washimi, Haruichi; Webber, W. R.; Zank, Gary P.; Hu, Qiang; Florinski, Vladimir; Adams, James; Kubo, Yuki

2011-01-01

The Voyager spacecraft (V1 and V2) observed electrons of 6-14 MeV in the heliosheath which showed several incidences of flux variation relative to a background of gradually increasing flux with distance from the Sun. The increasing flux of background electrons is thought to result from inward radial diffusion. We compare the temporal electron flux variation with dynamical phenomena in the heliosheath that are obtained from our MHD simulations. Because our simulation is based on V2 observed plasma data before V2 crossed the termination shock, this analysis is effective up to late 2008, i.e., about a year after the V2-crossing, during which disturbances, driven prior to the crossing time, survived in the heliosheath. Several electron flux variations correspond to times directly associated with interplanetary shock events. One noteworthy example corresponds to various times associated with the March 2006 interplanetary shock, these being the collision with the termination shock, the passage past the V1 spacecraft, and the collision with the region near the heliopause, as identified by W.R. Webber et al. for proton/helium of 7-200 MeV. Our simulations indicate that all other electron flux variations, except one, correspond well to the times when a shock-driven magneto-sonic pulse and its reflection in the heliosheath either passed across V1/V2, or collided with the termination shock or with the plasma sheet near the heliopause. This result suggests that variation in the electron flux should be due to either direct or indirect effects of magnetosonic pulses in the heliosheath driven by interplanetary shocks

Synchrony between reanalysis-driven RCM simulations and observations: variation with time scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Elía, Ramón; Laprise, René; Biner, Sébastien; Merleau, James

2017-04-01

Unlike coupled global climate models (CGCMs) that run in a stand-alone mode, nested regional climate models (RCMs) are driven by either a CGCM or a reanalysis dataset. This feature makes high correlations between the RCM simulation and its driver possible. When the driving dataset is a reanalysis, time correlations between RCM output and observations are also common and to be expected. In certain situations time correlation between driver and driven RCM is of particular interest and techniques have been developed to increase it (e.g. large-scale spectral nudging). For such cases, a question that remains open is whether aggregating in time increases the correlation between RCM output and observations. That is, although the RCM may be unable to reproduce a given daily event, whether it will still be able to satisfactorily simulate an anomaly on a monthly or annual basis. This is a preconception that the authors of this work and others in the community have held, perhaps as a natural extension of the properties of upscaling or aggregating other statistics such as the mean squared error. Here we explore analytically four particular cases that help us partially answer this question. In addition, we use observations datasets and RCM-simulated data to illustrate our findings. Results indicate that time upscaling does not necessarily increase time correlations, and that those interested in achieving high monthly or annual time correlations between RCM output and observations may have to do so by increasing correlation as much as possible at the shortest time scale. This may indicate that even when only concerned with time correlations at large temporal scale, large-scale spectral nudging acting at the time-step level may have to be used.

Reducing usage of the computational resources by event driven approach to model predictive control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misik, Stefan; Bradac, Zdenek; Cela, Arben

2017-08-01

This paper deals with a real-time and optimal control of dynamic systems while also considers the constraints which these systems might be subject to. Main objective of this work is to propose a simple modification of the existing Model Predictive Control approach to better suit needs of computational resource-constrained real-time systems. An example using model of a mechanical system is presented and the performance of the proposed method is evaluated in a simulated environment.

Fast Low-to-High Confinement Mode Bifurcation Dynamics in a Tokamak Edge Plasma Gyrokinetic Simulation.

PubMed

Chang, C S; Ku, S; Tynan, G R; Hager, R; Churchill, R M; Cziegler, I; Greenwald, M; Hubbard, A E; Hughes, J W

2017-04-28

Transport barrier formation and its relation to sheared flows in fluids and plasmas are of fundamental interest in various natural and laboratory observations and of critical importance in achieving an economical energy production in a magnetic fusion device. Here we report the first observation of an edge transport barrier formation event in an electrostatic gyrokinetic simulation carried out in a realistic diverted tokamak edge geometry under strong forcing by a high rate of heat deposition. The results show that turbulent Reynolds-stress-driven sheared E×B flows act in concert with neoclassical orbit loss to quench turbulent transport and form a transport barrier just inside the last closed magnetic flux surface.

Modeling the Impact of Stream Discharge Events on Riparian Solute Dynamics.

PubMed

Mahmood, Muhammad Nasir; Schmidt, Christian; Fleckenstein, Jan H; Trauth, Nico

2018-03-22

The biogeochemical composition of stream water and the surrounding riparian water is mainly defined by the exchange of water and solutes between the stream and the riparian zone. Short-term fluctuations in near stream hydraulic head gradients (e.g., during stream flow events) can significantly influence the extent and rate of exchange processes. In this study, we simulate exchanges between streams and their riparian zone driven by stream stage fluctuations during single stream discharge events of varying peak height and duration. Simulated results show that strong stream flow events can trigger solute mobilization in riparian soils and subsequent export to the stream. The timing and amount of solute export is linked to the shape of the discharge event. Higher peaks and increased durations significantly enhance solute export, however, peak height is found to be the dominant control for overall mass export. Mobilized solutes are transported to the stream in two stages (1) by return flow of stream water that was stored in the riparian zone during the event and (2) by vertical movement to the groundwater under gravity drainage from the unsaturated parts of the riparian zone, which lasts for significantly longer time (> 400 days) resulting in long tailing of bank outflows and solute mass outfluxes. We conclude that strong stream discharge events can mobilize and transport solutes from near stream riparian soils into the stream. The impact of short-term stream discharge variations on solute exchange may last for long times after the flow event. © 2018, National Ground Water Association.

Evaluation of regional climate simulations for air quality modelling purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menut, Laurent; Tripathi, Om P.; Colette, Augustin; Vautard, Robert; Flaounas, Emmanouil; Bessagnet, Bertrand

2013-05-01

In order to evaluate the future potential benefits of emission regulation on regional air quality, while taking into account the effects of climate change, off-line air quality projection simulations are driven using weather forcing taken from regional climate models. These regional models are themselves driven by simulations carried out using global climate models (GCM) and economical scenarios. Uncertainties and biases in climate models introduce an additional "climate modeling" source of uncertainty that is to be added to all other types of uncertainties in air quality modeling for policy evaluation. In this article we evaluate the changes in air quality-related weather variables induced by replacing reanalyses-forced by GCM-forced regional climate simulations. As an example we use GCM simulations carried out in the framework of the ERA-interim programme and of the CMIP5 project using the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace climate model (IPSLcm), driving regional simulations performed in the framework of the EURO-CORDEX programme. In summer, we found compensating deficiencies acting on photochemistry: an overestimation by GCM-driven weather due to a positive bias in short-wave radiation, a negative bias in wind speed, too many stagnant episodes, and a negative temperature bias. In winter, air quality is mostly driven by dispersion, and we could not identify significant differences in either wind or planetary boundary layer height statistics between GCM-driven and reanalyses-driven regional simulations. However, precipitation appears largely overestimated in GCM-driven simulations, which could significantly affect the simulation of aerosol concentrations. The identification of these biases will help interpreting results of future air quality simulations using these data. Despite these, we conclude that the identified differences should not lead to major difficulties in using GCM-driven regional climate simulations for air quality projections.

Effective production planning for purchased part under long lead time and uncertain demand: MRP Vs demand-driven MRP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shofa, M. J.; Moeis, A. O.; Restiana, N.

2018-04-01

MRP as a production planning system is appropriate for the deterministic environment. Unfortunately, most production systems such as customer demands are stochastic, so that MRP is inappropriate at the time. Demand-Driven MRP (DDMRP) is new approach for production planning system dealing with demand uncertainty. The objective of this paper is to compare the MRP and DDMRP for purchased part under long lead time and uncertain demand in terms of average inventory levels. The evaluation is conducted through a discrete event simulation with the long lead time and uncertain demand scenarios. The next step is evaluating the performance of DDMRP by comparing the inventory level of DDMRP with MRP. As result, DDMRP is more effective production planning than MRP in terms of average inventory levels.

The Dynamics of Small-Scale Turbulence Driven Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beer, M. A.; Hammett, G. W.

1997-11-01

The dynamics of small-scale fluctuation driven flows are of great interest for micro-instability driven turbulence, since nonlinear toroidal simulations have shown that these flows play an important role in the regulation of the turbulence and transport levels. The gyrofluid treatment of these flows was shown to be accurate for times shorter than a bounce time.(Beer, M. A., Ph. D. thesis, Princeton University (1995).) Since the decorrelation times of the turbulence are generally shorter than a bounce time, our original hypothesis was that this description was adequate. Recent work(Hinton, F. L., Rosenbluth, M. N., and Waltz, R. E., International Sherwood Fusion Theory Conference (1997).) pointed out possible problems with this hypothesis, emphasizing the existence of a linearly undamped component of the flow which could build up in time and lower the final turbulence level. While our original gyrofluid model reproduces some aspects of the linear flow, there are differences between the long time gyrofluid and kinetic linear results in some cases. On the other hand, if the long time behavior of these flows is dominated by nonlinear damping (which seems reasonable), then the existing nonlinear gyrofluid simulations may be sufficiently accurate. We test these possibilities by modifying the gyrofluid description of these flows and diagnosing the flow evolution in nonlinear simulations.

The Statistical Studies of 0.5-100 keV Electrons Near The ICME-drivens At 1 AU

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, L.; Wang, W.; Wang, L.; Li, G.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.; He, J.; Tu, C. Y.; Bale, S. D.

2017-12-01

We present a statistical survey of the 0.5 - 100 keV electrons near the ICME-driven shocks at 1 AU, using the WIND/3DP electron measurements from 1995 to 2014. We select 74 good ICME-driven shocks, and use the "Rankine-Hugoniot" shock fitting technique to obtain the shock normal, θBn, magnetic compression ratio rB, and magnetosonic Mach number Ms. After averaging the electron data in the 10-minute interval immediately after the shock to obtain the sheath electron fluxes, Jsheath, and in the 2-hour quiet-time interval before the shock to obtain the pre-event electron fluxes, Jpre-event, we calculate the flux ratio, α, of Jsheath over Jpre-event. We find that, in the 59 quasi-perpendicular shocks, both Jsheath and Jpre-event are positively correlated with Ms and α is positively correlated with rB. In the 15 quasi-parallel cases, α is positively correlated with Ms, while neither Jsheath nor Jpre-event has any correlation with the shock parameters. Furthermore, we find that both the pre-event and sheath electron fluxes generally fit well to a double power-law spectrum, . At 0.5 - 2 keV, the fitted spectral index β1 ranges from 2.1 to 5.9, and it becomes larger in the sheah than in the pre-event in nearly a half of the 74 cases and remains the same in the other half of the cases. At 2 - 100 keV, the fitted index β2 ranges from 1.9 to 3.4, similar to the spectral indexes of solar wind superhalo electrons at quiet times (Wang et al., 2015). And β2 becomes larger in the sheah than in the pre-event in over half of the cases. In addition, neither β1 nor β2 is consistent with the diffusive shock theoretical predication. These results suggest that the shock drift acceleration may play a more important role in electron acceleration than the diffusive shock acceleration near 1 AU, and the interplanetary shock acceleration can contribute to the production of solar wind superhalo electrons.

A general CFD framework for fault-resilient simulations based on multi-resolution information fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Seungjoon; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G.; Karniadakis, George Em

2017-10-01

We develop a general CFD framework for multi-resolution simulations to target multiscale problems but also resilience in exascale simulations, where faulty processors may lead to gappy, in space-time, simulated fields. We combine approximation theory and domain decomposition together with statistical learning techniques, e.g. coKriging, to estimate boundary conditions and minimize communications by performing independent parallel runs. To demonstrate this new simulation approach, we consider two benchmark problems. First, we solve the heat equation (a) on a small number of spatial "patches" distributed across the domain, simulated by finite differences at fine resolution and (b) on the entire domain simulated at very low resolution, thus fusing multi-resolution models to obtain the final answer. Second, we simulate the flow in a lid-driven cavity in an analogous fashion, by fusing finite difference solutions obtained with fine and low resolution assuming gappy data sets. We investigate the influence of various parameters for this framework, including the correlation kernel, the size of a buffer employed in estimating boundary conditions, the coarseness of the resolution of auxiliary data, and the communication frequency across different patches in fusing the information at different resolution levels. In addition to its robustness and resilience, the new framework can be employed to generalize previous multiscale approaches involving heterogeneous discretizations or even fundamentally different flow descriptions, e.g. in continuum-atomistic simulations.

A Physics-driven Neural Networks-based Simulation System (PhyNNeSS) for multimodal interactive virtual environments involving nonlinear deformable objects

PubMed Central

De, Suvranu; Deo, Dhannanjay; Sankaranarayanan, Ganesh; Arikatla, Venkata S.

2012-01-01

Background While an update rate of 30 Hz is considered adequate for real time graphics, a much higher update rate of about 1 kHz is necessary for haptics. Physics-based modeling of deformable objects, especially when large nonlinear deformations and complex nonlinear material properties are involved, at these very high rates is one of the most challenging tasks in the development of real time simulation systems. While some specialized solutions exist, there is no general solution for arbitrary nonlinearities. Methods In this work we present PhyNNeSS - a Physics-driven Neural Networks-based Simulation System - to address this long-standing technical challenge. The first step is an off-line pre-computation step in which a database is generated by applying carefully prescribed displacements to each node of the finite element models of the deformable objects. In the next step, the data is condensed into a set of coefficients describing neurons of a Radial Basis Function network (RBFN). During real-time computation, these neural networks are used to reconstruct the deformation fields as well as the interaction forces. Results We present realistic simulation examples from interactive surgical simulation with real time force feedback. As an example, we have developed a deformable human stomach model and a Penrose-drain model used in the Fundamentals of Laparoscopic Surgery (FLS) training tool box. Conclusions A unique computational modeling system has been developed that is capable of simulating the response of nonlinear deformable objects in real time. The method distinguishes itself from previous efforts in that a systematic physics-based pre-computational step allows training of neural networks which may be used in real time simulations. We show, through careful error analysis, that the scheme is scalable, with the accuracy being controlled by the number of neurons used in the simulation. PhyNNeSS has been integrated into SoFMIS (Software Framework for Multimodal Interactive Simulation) for general use. PMID:22629108

Attribution of Disturbances Causing Tree Mortality for the Continental U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Xu, C.; Allen, C. D.; McDowell, N. G.

2016-12-01

Broad-scale tree mortality has been frequently reported and documented to increase with warming climate and human activities. However, there is so far no general method to quantify the relative contributions of different disturbances on observed broad-scale tree mortality. In this study, we presented a framework to investigate the contribution of various disturbances causing tree mortality for 2000-2014 in the continental US. Our work is based on the high-resolution forest-loss data developed by Hansen et al. (2013). Firstly, fire-driven mortality was determined using the data from Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) project. Secondly, a landscape-pattern-recognition approach focusing on the differences of boundary complexity caused by natural and anthropogenic disturbances was developed to attribute harvest-driven mortality patches. Then, a drought threshold was determined through conducting an intensive literature survey for attribution of drought-driven mortality. Our results showed that we can correctly attribute 85% harvest-driven mortality as compared to Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data. Based on Evaporative Stress Index (ESI), our literature survey suggests that most mortality events happened at extreme drought (37.7%), then severe (31.4%) and moderate (23.4%) drought. In total, 92.6% of drought-induced mortality events observed during 2000-2014 occurred at drought conditions of moderate or worse with corresponding ESI values ranging from -0.9 -2.49. Therefore, -0.9 will be used as the threshold to attribute drought-driven tree mortality. Overall, these results imply a great potential for using these methods to identify and attribute disturbances driving tree death at broad spatial scales.

Conformity-driven agents support ordered phases in the spatial public goods game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Javarone, Marco Alberto; Antonioni, Alberto; Caravelli, Francesco

2016-05-01

We investigate the spatial Public Goods Game in the presence of fitness-driven and conformity-driven agents. This framework usually considers only the former type of agents, i.e., agents that tend to imitate the strategy of their fittest neighbors. However, whenever we study social systems, the evolution of a population might be affected also by social behaviors as conformism, stubbornness, altruism, and selfishness. Although the term evolution can assume different meanings depending on the considered domain, here it corresponds to the set of processes that lead a system towards an equilibrium or a steady state. We map fitness to the agents' payoff so that richer agents are those most imitated by fitness-driven agents, while conformity-driven agents tend to imitate the strategy assumed by the majority of their neighbors. Numerical simulations aim to identify the nature of the transition, on varying the amount of the relative density of conformity-driven agents in the population, and to study the nature of related equilibria. Remarkably, we find that conformism generally fosters ordered cooperative phases and may also lead to bistable behaviors.

Pickup Protons: Comparisons using the Three-Dimensional MHD HHMS-PI model and Ulysses SWICS Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Intriligator, Devrie S.; Detman, Thomas; Gloecker, George; Gloeckler, Christine; Dryer, Murray; Sun, Wei; Intriligator, James; Deehr, Charles

2012-01-01

We report the first comparisons of pickup proton simulation results with in situ measurements of pickup protons obtained by the SWICS instrument on Ulysses. Simulations were run using the three dimensional (3D) time-dependent Hybrid Heliospheric Modeling System with Pickup Protons (HHMS-PI). HHMS-PI is an MHD solar wind model, expanded to include the basic physics of pickup protons from neutral hydrogen that drifts into the heliosphere from the local interstellar medium. We use the same model and input data developed by Detman et al. (2011) to now investigate the pickup protons. The simulated interval of 82 days in 2003 2004, includes both quiet solar wind (SW) and also the October November 2003 solar events (the Halloween 2003 solar storms). The HHMS-PI pickup proton simulations generally agree with the SWICS measurements and the HHMS-PI simulated solar wind generally agrees with SWOOPS (also on Ulysses) measurements. Many specific features in the observations are well represented by the model. We simulated twenty specific solar events associated with the Halloween 2003 storm. We give the specific values of the solar input parameters for the HHMS-PI simulations that provide the best combined agreement in the times of arrival of the solar-generated shocks at both ACE and Ulysses. We show graphical comparisons of simulated and observed parameters, and we give quantitative measures of the agreement of simulated with observed parameters. We suggest that some of the variations in the pickup proton density during the Halloween 2003 solar events may be attributed to depletion of the inflowing local interstellar medium (LISM) neutral hydrogen (H) caused by its increased conversion to pickup protons in the immediately preceding shock.

How much are Chevrolet Volts in The EV Project driven in EV Mode?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smart, John

2013-08-01

This report summarizes key conclusions from analysis of data collected from Chevrolet Volts participating in The EV Project. Topics include how many miles are driven in EV mode, how far vehicles are driven between charging events, and how much energy is charged from the electric grid per charging event.

The impact of a simulated grand tour on sleep, mood, and well-being of competitive cyclists.

PubMed

Lastella, M; Roach, G D; Halson, S L; Martin, D T; West, N P; Sargent, C

2015-12-01

Professional cycling is considered one of the most demanding of all endurance sports. The three major professional cycling stages races (i.e. Tour de France, Giro d'Italia and Vuelta a España) require cyclists to compete daily covering between ~150-200 km for three consecutive weeks. Anecdotal evidence indicates that such an event has a significant effect on the sleep, mood, and general well-being of cyclists, particularly during the latter stages of the event. The primary aim of this study was to simulate a grand tour and determine the impact a grand tour has on the sleep, mood, and general well-being of competitive cyclists. Twenty-one male cyclists (M±SD, age 22.2±2.7 years) were examined for 39 days across three phases (i.e. baseline, simulated grand tour, and recovery). Sleep was assessed using sleep diaries and wrist activity monitors. Mood and general well-being were assessed using the Brunel Mood Scale (BRUMS) and Visual Analogue Scales (VAS). The amount and quality of sleep as assessed by the wrist activity monitors declined during the simulated grand tour. In contrast, self-reported sleep quality improved throughout the study. Cyclists' mood and general well-being as indicated by vigour, motivation, physical and mental state declined during the simulated tour. Future investigations should examine sleep, mood and well-being during an actual grand tour. Such data could prove instrumental toward understanding the sleep and psychological changes that occur during a grand tour.

Simulations of the Montréal urban heat island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberge, François; Sushama, Laxmi; Fanta, Gemechu

2017-04-01

The current population of Montreal is around 3.8 million and this number is projected to go up in the coming years to decades, which will lead to vast expansion of urban areas. It is well known that urban morphology impacts weather and climate, and therefore should be taken into consideration in urban planning. This is particularly important in the context of a changing climate, as the intensity and frequency of temperature extremes such as hot spells are projected to increase in future climate, and Urban Heat Island (UHI) can potentially raise already stressful temperatures during such events, which can have significant effects on human health and energy consumption. High-resolution regional climate model simulations can be utilized to understand better urban-weather/climate interactions in current and future climates, particularly the spatio-temporal characteristics of the Urban Heat Island and its impact on other weather/climate characteristics such as urban flows, precipitation etc. This paper will focus on two high-resolution (250 m) simulations performed with (1) the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) and (2) CLASS and TEB (Town Energy Balance) model; TEB is a single layer urban canopy model and is used to model the urban fractions. The two simulations are performed over a domain covering Montreal for the 1960-2015 period, driven by atmospheric forcing data coming from a high-resolution Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) simulation, driven by ERA-Interim. The two simulations are compared to assess the impact of urban regions on selected surface fields and the simulation with both CLASS and TEB is then used to study the spatio-temporal characteristics of the UHI over the study domain. Some preliminary results from a coupled simulation, i.e. CRCM5+CLASS+TEB, for selected years, including extreme warm years, will also be presented.

Impacts of Particulate Pollution from Fossil Fuel and Biomass Burnings on the Air Quality and Human Health in Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H. H.; Iraqui, O.; Gu, Y.; Yim, S. H. L.; Wang, C.

2017-12-01

Severe haze events in Southeast Asia have attracted the attention of governments and the general public in recent years, due to their impact on local economies, air quality and public health. Widespread biomass burning activities are a major source of severe haze events in Southeast Asia. On the other hand, particulate pollutants from human activities other than biomass burning also play an important role in degrading air quality in Southeast Asia. These pollutants can be locally produced or brought in from neighboring regions by long-range transport. A better understanding of the respective contributions of fossil fuel and biomass burning aerosols to air quality degradation becomes an urgent task in forming effective air pollution mitigation policies in Southeast Asia. In this study, to examine and quantify the contributions of fossil fuel and biomass burning aerosols to air quality and visibility degradation over Southeast Asia, we conducted three numerical simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a chemistry component (WRF-Chem). These simulations were driven by different aerosol emissions from: (a) fossil fuel burning only, (b) biomass burning only, and (c) both fossil fuel and biomass burning. By comparing the simulation results, we examined the corresponding impacts of fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions, separately and combined, on the air quality and visibility of the region. The results also showed that the major contributors to low visibility days (LVDs) among 50 ASEAN cities are fossil fuel burning aerosols (59%), while biomass burning aerosols provided an additional 13% of LVDs in Southeast Asia. In addition, the number of premature mortalities among ASEAN cities has increased from 4110 in 2002 to 6540 in 2008, caused primarily by fossil fuel burning aerosols. This study suggests that reductions in both fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions are necessary to improve the air quality in Southeast Asia.

Perfect Detection of Spikes in the Linear Sub-threshold Dynamics of Point Neurons

PubMed Central

Krishnan, Jeyashree; Porta Mana, PierGianLuca; Helias, Moritz; Diesmann, Markus; Di Napoli, Edoardo

2018-01-01

Spiking neuronal networks are usually simulated with one of three main schemes: the classical time-driven and event-driven schemes, and the more recent hybrid scheme. All three schemes evolve the state of a neuron through a series of checkpoints: equally spaced in the first scheme and determined neuron-wise by spike events in the latter two. The time-driven and the hybrid scheme determine whether the membrane potential of a neuron crosses a threshold at the end of the time interval between consecutive checkpoints. Threshold crossing can, however, occur within the interval even if this test is negative. Spikes can therefore be missed. The present work offers an alternative geometric point of view on neuronal dynamics, and derives, implements, and benchmarks a method for perfect retrospective spike detection. This method can be applied to neuron models with affine or linear subthreshold dynamics. The idea behind the method is to propagate the threshold with a time-inverted dynamics, testing whether the threshold crosses the neuron state to be evolved, rather than vice versa. Algebraically this translates into a set of inequalities necessary and sufficient for threshold crossing. This test is slower than the imperfect one, but can be optimized in several ways. Comparison confirms earlier results that the imperfect tests rarely miss spikes (less than a fraction 1/108 of missed spikes) in biologically relevant settings. PMID:29379430

Thermonuclear Bursts with Short Recurrence Times from Neutron Stars Explained by Opacity-Driven Convection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keek, L.; Heger, A.

2017-01-01

Thermonuclear flashes of hydrogen and helium accreted onto neutron stars produce the frequently observed Type I X-ray bursts. It is the current paradigm that almost all material burns in a burst, after which it takes hours to accumulate fresh fuel for the next burst. In rare cases, however, bursts are observed with recurrence times as short as minutes. We present the first one-dimensional multi-zone simulations that reproduce this phenomenon. Bursts that ignite in a relatively hot neutron star envelope leave a substantial fraction of the fuel unburned at shallow depths. In the wake of the burst, convective mixing events driven by opacity bring this fuel down to the ignition depth on the observed timescale of minutes. There, unburned hydrogen mixes with the metal-rich ashes, igniting to produce a subsequent burst. We find burst pairs and triplets, similar to the observed instances. Our simulations reproduce the observed fraction of bursts with short waiting times of approximately 30%, and demonstrate that short recurrence time bursts are typically less bright and of shorter duration.

Analyzing Electric Field Morphology Through Data-Model Comparisons of the GEM IM/S Assessment Challenge Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liemohn, Michael W.; Ridley, Aaron J.; Kozyra, Janet U.; Gallagher, Dennis L.; Thomsen, Michelle F.; Henderson, Michael G.; Denton, Michael H.; Brandt, Pontus C.; Goldstein, Jerry

2006-01-01

The storm-time inner magnetospheric electric field morphology and dynamics are assessed by comparing numerical modeling results of the plasmasphere and ring current with many in situ and remote sensing data sets. Two magnetic storms are analyzed, April 22,2001 and October 21-23,2001, which are the events selected for the Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM) Inner Magnetosphere/Storms (IM/S) Assessment Challenge (IMSAC). The IMSAC seeks to quantify the accuracy of inner magnetospheric models as well as synthesize our understanding of this region. For each storm, the ring current-atmosphere interaction model (RAM) and the dynamic global core plasma model (DGCPM) were run together with various settings for the large-scale convection electric field and the nightside ionospheric conductance. DGCPM plasmaspheric parameters were compared with IMAGE-EUV plasmapause extractions and LANL-MPA plume locations and velocities. RAM parameters were compared with Dst*, LANL-MPA fluxes and moments, IMAGE-MENA images, and IMAGE-HENA images. Both qualitative and quantitative comparisons were made to determine the electric field morphology that allows the model results to best fit the plasma data at various times during these events. The simulations with self-consistent electric fields were, in general, better than those with prescribed field choices. This indicates that the time-dependent modulation of the inner magnetospheric electric fields by the nightside ionosphere is quite significant for accurate determination of these fields (and their effects). It was determined that a shielded Volland-Stern field description driven by the 3-hour Kp index yields accurate results much of the time, but can be quite inconsistent. The modified Mcllwain field description clearly lagged in overall accuracy compared to the other fields, but matched some data sets (like Dst*) quite well. The rankings between the simulations varied depending on the storm and the individual data sets, indicating that each field description did well for some place, time, and energy range during the events, as well as doing less well in other places, times, and energies. Several unresolved issues regarding the storm-time inner magnetospheric electric field are discussed.

Analysis of the variability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream in CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iqbal, Waheed; Leung, Wai-Nang; Hannachi, Abdel

2017-09-01

The North Atlantic eddy-driven jet is a dominant feature of extratropical climate and its variability is associated with the large-scale changes in the surface climate of midlatitudes. Variability of this jet is analysed in a set of General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5) over the North Atlantic region. The CMIP5 simulations for the 20th century climate (Historical) are compared with the ERA40 reanalysis data. The jet latitude index, wind speed and jet persistence are analysed in order to evaluate 11 CMIP5 GCMs and to compare them with those from CMIP3 integrations. The phase of mean seasonal cycle of jet latitude and wind speed from historical runs of CMIP5 GCMs are comparable to ERA40. The wind speed mean seasonal cycle by CMIP5 GCMs is overestimated in winter months. A positive (negative) jet latitude anomaly in historical simulations relative to ERA40 is observed in summer (winter). The ensemble mean of jet latitude biases in historical simulations of CMIP3 and CMIP5 with respect to ERA40 are -2.43° and -1.79° respectively. Thus indicating improvements in CMIP5 in comparison to the CMIP3 GCMs. The comparison of historical and future simulations of CMIP5 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the period 2076-2099, shows positive anomalies in the jet latitude implying a poleward shifted jet. The results from the analysed models offer no specific improvements in simulating the trimodality of the eddy-driven jet.

Simulation of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer for Wind Energy Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marjanovic, Nikola

Energy production from wind is an increasingly important component of overall global power generation, and will likely continue to gain an even greater share of electricity production as world governments attempt to mitigate climate change and wind energy production costs decrease. Wind energy generation depends on wind speed, which is greatly influenced by local and synoptic environmental forcings. Synoptic forcing, such as a cold frontal passage, exists on a large spatial scale while local forcing manifests itself on a much smaller scale and could result from topographic effects or land-surface heat fluxes. Synoptic forcing, if strong enough, may suppress the effects of generally weaker local forcing. At the even smaller scale of a wind farm, upstream turbines generate wakes that decrease the wind speed and increase the atmospheric turbulence at the downwind turbines, thereby reducing power production and increasing fatigue loading that may damage turbine components, respectively. Simulation of atmospheric processes that span a considerable range of spatial and temporal scales is essential to improve wind energy forecasting, wind turbine siting, turbine maintenance scheduling, and wind turbine design. Mesoscale atmospheric models predict atmospheric conditions using observed data, for a wide range of meteorological applications across scales from thousands of kilometers to hundreds of meters. Mesoscale models include parameterizations for the major atmospheric physical processes that modulate wind speed and turbulence dynamics, such as cloud evolution and surface-atmosphere interactions. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used in this dissertation to investigate the effects of model parameters on wind energy forecasting. WRF is used for case study simulations at two West Coast North American wind farms, one with simple and one with complex terrain, during both synoptically and locally-driven weather events. The model's performance with different grid nesting configurations, turbulence closures, and grid resolutions is evaluated by comparison to observation data. Improvement to simulation results from the use of more computationally expensive high resolution simulations is only found for the complex terrain simulation during the locally-driven event. Physical parameters, such as soil moisture, have a large effect on locally-forced events, and prognostic turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) schemes are found to perform better than non-local eddy viscosity turbulence closure schemes. Mesoscale models, however, do not resolve turbulence directly, which is important at finer grid resolutions capable of resolving wind turbine components and their interactions with atmospheric turbulence. Large-eddy simulation (LES) is a numerical approach that resolves the largest scales of turbulence directly by separating large-scale, energetically important eddies from smaller scales with the application of a spatial filter. LES allows higher fidelity representation of the wind speed and turbulence intensity at the scale of a wind turbine which parameterizations have difficulty representing. Use of high-resolution LES enables the implementation of more sophisticated wind turbine parameterizations to create a robust model for wind energy applications using grid spacing small enough to resolve individual elements of a turbine such as its rotor blades or rotation area. Generalized actuator disk (GAD) and line (GAL) parameterizations are integrated into WRF to complement its real-world weather modeling capabilities and better represent wind turbine airflow interactions, including wake effects. The GAD parameterization represents the wind turbine as a two-dimensional disk resulting from the rotation of the turbine blades. Forces on the atmosphere are computed along each blade and distributed over rotating, annular rings intersecting the disk. While typical LES resolution (10-20 m) is normally sufficient to resolve the GAD, the GAL parameterization requires significantly higher resolution (1-3 m) as it does not distribute the forces from the blades over annular elements, but applies them along lines representing individual blades. In this dissertation, the GAL is implemented into WRF and evaluated against the GAD parameterization from two field campaigns that measured the inflow and near-wake regions of a single turbine. The data-sets are chosen to allow validation under the weakly convective and weakly stable conditions characterizing most turbine operations. The parameterizations are evaluated with respect to their ability to represent wake wind speed, variance, and vorticity by comparing fine-resolution GAD and GAL simulations along with coarse-resolution GAD simulations. Coarse-resolution GAD simulations produce aggregated wake characteristics similar to both GAD and GAL simulations (saving on computational cost), while the GAL parameterization enables resolution of near wake physics (such as vorticity shedding and wake expansion) for high fidelity applications. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).

Non-daily pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention

PubMed Central

Anderson, Peter L.; García-Lerma, J. Gerardo; Heneine, Walid

2015-01-01

Purpose of review To discuss non-daily pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) modalities that may provide advantages compared with daily PrEP in cost and cumulative toxicity, but may have lower adherence forgiveness. Recent Findings Animal models have informed our understanding of early viral transmission events, which help guide event-driven PrEP dosing strategies. These models indicate early establishment of viral replication in rectal or cervicovaginal tissues, so event-driven PrEP should rapidly deliver high mucosal drug concentrations within hours of the potential exposure event. Macaque models have demonstrated the high biological efficacy for event-driven dosing of oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) and emtricitabine (FTC) against both vaginal and rectal virus transmission. In humans, the IPERGAY study demonstrated 86% efficacy for event-driven oral TDF/FTC dosing among men who have sex with men (MSM), while no similar efficacy data are available on women or heterosexual men. The HPTN 067 study showed that certain MSM populations adhere well to non-daily PrEP while other populations of women adhere more poorly to non-daily versus daily regimens. Pharmacokinetic studies following oral TDF/FTC dosing in humans, indicate that TFV-diphosphate (the active form of TFV) accumulates to higher concentrations in rectal versus cervicovaginal tissue but non-adherence in trials complicates the interpretation of differential mucosal drug concentrations. Summary Event-driven dosing for TFV-based PrEP has promise for HIV prevention in MSM. Future research of event-driven PrEP in women and heterosexual men should be guided by a better understanding of the importance of mucosal drug concentrations for PrEP efficacy and its sensitivity to adherence. PMID:26633641

Cross-diffusion-driven hydrodynamic instabilities in a double-layer system: General classification and nonlinear simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budroni, M. A.

2015-12-01

Cross diffusion, whereby a flux of a given species entrains the diffusive transport of another species, can trigger buoyancy-driven hydrodynamic instabilities at the interface of initially stable stratifications. Starting from a simple three-component case, we introduce a theoretical framework to classify cross-diffusion-induced hydrodynamic phenomena in two-layer stratifications under the action of the gravitational field. A cross-diffusion-convection (CDC) model is derived by coupling the fickian diffusion formalism to Stokes equations. In order to isolate the effect of cross-diffusion in the convective destabilization of a double-layer system, we impose a starting concentration jump of one species in the bottom layer while the other one is homogeneously distributed over the spatial domain. This initial configuration avoids the concurrence of classic Rayleigh-Taylor or differential-diffusion convective instabilities, and it also allows us to activate selectively the cross-diffusion feedback by which the heterogeneously distributed species influences the diffusive transport of the other species. We identify two types of hydrodynamic modes [the negative cross-diffusion-driven convection (NCC) and the positive cross-diffusion-driven convection (PCC)], corresponding to the sign of this operational cross-diffusion term. By studying the space-time density profiles along the gravitational axis we obtain analytical conditions for the onset of convection in terms of two important parameters only: the operational cross-diffusivity and the buoyancy ratio, giving the relative contribution of the two species to the global density. The general classification of the NCC and PCC scenarios in such parameter space is supported by numerical simulations of the fully nonlinear CDC problem. The resulting convective patterns compare favorably with recent experimental results found in microemulsion systems.

Why did this happen to me? Religious believers' and non-believers' teleological reasoning about life events.

PubMed

Banerjee, Konika; Bloom, Paul

2014-10-01

People often believe that significant life events happen for a reason. In three studies, we examined evidence for the view that teleological beliefs reflect a general cognitive bias to view the world in terms of agency, purpose, and design. Consistent with this hypothesis, we found that individual differences in mentalizing ability predicted both the tendency to believe in fate (Study 1) and to infer purposeful causes of one's own life events (Study 2). In addition, people's perception of purpose in life events was correlated with their teleological beliefs about nature, but this relationship was driven primarily by individuals' explicit religious and paranormal beliefs (Study 3). Across all three studies, we found that while people who believe in God hold stronger teleological beliefs than those who do not, there is nonetheless evidence of teleological beliefs among non-believers, confirming that the perception of purpose in life events does not rely on theistic belief. These findings suggest that the tendency to perceive design and purpose in life events-while moderated by theistic belief-is not solely a consequence of culturally transmitted religious ideas. Rather, this teleological bias has its roots in certain more general social propensities. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Accretion dynamics in pre-main sequence binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tofflemire, B.; Mathieu, R.; Herczeg, G.; Ardila, D.; Akeson, R.; Ciardi, D.; Johns-Krull, C.

Binary stars are a common outcome of star formation. Orbital resonances, especially in short-period systems, are capable of reshaping the distribution and flows of circumstellar material. Simulations of the binary-disk interaction predict a dynamically cleared gap around the central binary, accompanied by periodic ``pulsed'' accretion events that are driven by orbital motion. To place observational constraints on the binary-disk interaction, we have conducted a long-term monitoring program tracing the time-variable accretion behavior of 9 short-period binaries. In this proceeding we present two results from our campaign: 1) the detection of periodic pulsed accretion events in DQ Tau and TWA 3A, and 2) evidence that the TWA 3A primary is the dominant accretor in the system.

Tsunamigenic Gravity Waves in the Thermosphere-Ionosphere System: Challenges and Opportunities (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hickey, M. P.

2010-12-01

There has been a recent resurgence of interest in the association between tsunamis and traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs), fueled in part by the use of GPS satellite technologies to remotely monitor the ionosphere. The TID observations have also triggered a renewed interest in the modeling of such events. Up to this point in time the various model simulations have incorporated various simplifications, some of which are briefly described. A future challenge is to bring together suites of models that each realistically describes one of the subsystems. In this talk I will describe the results of using a linear spectral full-wave model to simulate the propagation of a gravity wave disturbance from the sea surface to the thermosphere. In the model this disturbance is driven by a lower boundary perturbation that mimics a tsunami. A linear model describing the response of the ionosphere to neutral atmosphere perturbations, and airglow perturbations driven by ionosphere and neutral atmosphere fluctuations are also described. Additionally, the gravity wave disturbances carries wave momentum, which will be deposited in the thermosphere accompanying the viscous dissipation of wave energy and lead to accelerations of the mean state. In spite of the simplicity of these models, much can be learned from them. It is suggested that these rare events offer a fairly unique opportunity to test models describing such processes. Model predictions of total electron content (TEC) fluctuations are also briefly compared with TEC measurements obtained following some recent major tsunamis.

Model simulations of the impact of energetic particle precipitation onto the upper and middle atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wieters, Nadine; Sinnhuber, Miriam; Winkler, Holger; Berger, Uwe; Maik Wissing, Jan; Stiller, Gabriele; Funke, Bernd; Notholt, Justus

Solar eruptions and geomagnetic storms can produce fluxes of high-energy protons and elec-trons, so-called Solar Energetic Particle Events, which can enter the Earth's atmosphere espe-cially in polar regions. These particle fluxes primarily cause ionisation and excitation in the upper atmosphere, and thereby the production of HOx and NOx species, which are catalysts for the reduction of ozone. To simulate such particle events, ionisation rates, calculated by the Atmospheric Ionization Module Osnabrück AIMOS (University of Osnabrück), have been implemented into the Bremen 3D Chemistry and Transport Model. To cover altitudes up to the mesopause, the model is driven by meteorological data, provided by the Leibniz-Institute Middle Atmosphere Model LIMA (IAP Kühlungsborn). For several electron and proton events during the highly solar-active period 2003/2004, model calculations have been carried out. To investigate the accordance of modeled to observed changes for atmospheric constituents like NO, NO2 , HNO3 , N2 O5 , ClO, and O3 , results of these calculations will be compared to measurements by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding MIPAS (ENVISAT) instrument. Computed model results and comparisons with measurements will be presented.

Modeling and evaluation of urban pollution events of atmospheric heavy metals from a large Cu-smelter.

PubMed

Chen, Bing; Stein, Ariel F; Castell, Nuria; Gonzalez-Castanedo, Yolanda; Sanchez de la Campa, A M; de la Rosa, J D

2016-01-01

Metal smelting and processing are highly polluting activities that have a strong influence on the levels of heavy metals in air, soil, and crops. We employ an atmospheric transport and dispersion model to predict the pollution levels originated from the second largest Cu-smelter in Europe. The model predicts that the concentrations of copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), and arsenic (As) in an urban area close to the Cu-smelter can reach 170, 70, and 30 ng m−3, respectively. The model captures all the observed urban pollution events, but the magnitude of the elemental concentrations is predicted to be lower than that of the observed values; ~300, ~500, and ~100 ng m−3 for Cu, Zn, and As, respectively. The comparison between model and observations showed an average correlation coefficient of 0.62 ± 0.13. The simulation shows that the transport of heavy metals reaches a peak in the afternoon over the urban area. The under-prediction in the peak is explained by the simulated stronger winds compared with monitoring data. The stronger simulated winds enhance the transport and dispersion of heavy metals to the regional area, diminishing the impact of pollution events in the urban area. This model, driven by high resolution meteorology (2 km in horizontal), predicts the hourly-interval evolutions of atmospheric heavy metal pollutions in the close by urban area of industrial hotspot.

The effects of neutral inertia on ionospheric currents in the high-latitude thermosphere following a geomagnetic storm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deng, W.; Killeen, T. L.; Burns, A. G.; Roble, R. G.; Slavin, J. A.; Wharton, L. E.

1993-01-01

Neutral flywheel effects are investigated in NCAR-TIGCM simulation of geomagnetic storms that occurred in November 23, 1982 and December 7-8, 1982. Theoretical calculations from the latter storm are compared with measurements of currents form instruments on the Dynamics Explorer 2 satellite. It is concluded that neutral flywheel effects can make a contribution to high latitude electrodynamics for a few hours after the main phase of a geomagnetic storm. The Hall currents that are driven by neutral winds during B(Z) northward conditions are generally in the opposite direction to those that occur during B(Z) southward conditions, when they are driven primarily by ion winds. The morphology of the field-aligned current system calculated by the NCAR-TIGCM during southward B(Z) conditions is in general agreement with observations.

Exact simulation of integrate-and-fire models with exponential currents.

PubMed

Brette, Romain

2007-10-01

Neural networks can be simulated exactly using event-driven strategies, in which the algorithm advances directly from one spike to the next spike. It applies to neuron models for which we have (1) an explicit expression for the evolution of the state variables between spikes and (2) an explicit test on the state variables that predicts whether and when a spike will be emitted. In a previous work, we proposed a method that allows exact simulation of an integrate-and-fire model with exponential conductances, with the constraint of a single synaptic time constant. In this note, we propose a method, based on polynomial root finding, that applies to integrate-and-fire models with exponential currents, with possibly many different synaptic time constants. Models can include biexponential synaptic currents and spike-triggered adaptation currents.

Diagnosing Possible Anthropogenic Contributions to Heavy Colorado Rainfall in September 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pall, Pardeep; Patricola, Christina; Wehner, Michael; Stone, Dáithí; Paciorek, Christopher; Collins, William

2015-04-01

Unusually heavy rainfall occurred over the Colorado Front Range during early September 2013, with record or near-record totals recorded in several locations. It was associated predominantly with a stationary large-scale weather pattern (akin to the North American Monsoon, which occurs earlier in the year) that drove a strong plume of deep moisture inland from the Gulf of Mexico against the Front Range foothills. The resulting floods across the South Platte River basin impacted several thousands of people and many homes, roads, and businesses. To diagnose possible anthropogenic contributions to the odds of such heavy rainfall, we adapt an existing event attribution paradigm of modelling an 'event that was' for September 2013 and comparing it to a modelled 'event that might have been' for that same time but for the absence of historical anthropogenic drivers of climate. Specifically, we first perform 'event that was' simulations with the regional Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 12 km resolution over North America, driven by NCEP2 re-analysis. We then re-simulate, having adjusted the re-analysis to 'event that might have been conditions' by modifying atmospheric greenhouse gas and other pollutant concentrations, temperature, humidity, and winds, as well as sea ice coverage, and sea-surface temperatures - all according to estimates from global climate model simulations. Thus our findings are highly conditional on the driving re-analysis and adjustments therein, but the setup allows us to elucidate possible mechanisms responsible for heavy Colorado rainfall in September 2013. Our model results suggests that, given an insignificant change in the pattern of large-scale driving weather, there is an increase in atmospheric water vapour under anthropogenic climate warming leading to a substantial increase in the probability of heavy rainfall occurring over the South Platte River basin in September 2013.

Drivers of Arctic Ocean warming in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burgard, Clara; Notz, Dirk

2017-05-01

We investigate changes in the Arctic Ocean energy budget simulated by 26 general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 framework. Our goal is to understand whether the Arctic Ocean warming between 1961 and 2099 is primarily driven by changes in the net atmospheric surface flux or by changes in the meridional oceanic heat flux. We find that the simulated Arctic Ocean warming is driven by positive anomalies in the net atmospheric surface flux in 11 models, by positive anomalies in the meridional oceanic heat flux in 11 models, and by positive anomalies in both energy fluxes in four models. The different behaviors are mainly characterized by the different changes in meridional oceanic heat flux that lead to different changes in the turbulent heat loss to the atmosphere. The multimodel ensemble mean is hence not representative of a consensus across the models in Arctic climate projections.

Elastically driven intermittent microscopic dynamics in soft solids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouzid, Mehdi; Colombo, Jader; Barbosa, Lucas Vieira; Del Gado, Emanuela

2017-06-01

Soft solids with tunable mechanical response are at the core of new material technologies, but a crucial limit for applications is their progressive aging over time, which dramatically affects their functionalities. The generally accepted paradigm is that such aging is gradual and its origin is in slower than exponential microscopic dynamics, akin to the ones in supercooled liquids or glasses. Nevertheless, time- and space-resolved measurements have provided contrasting evidence: dynamics faster than exponential, intermittency and abrupt structural changes. Here we use 3D computer simulations of a microscopic model to reveal that the timescales governing stress relaxation, respectively, through thermal fluctuations and elastic recovery are key for the aging dynamics. When thermal fluctuations are too weak, stress heterogeneities frozen-in upon solidification can still partially relax through elastically driven fluctuations. Such fluctuations are intermittent, because of strong correlations that persist over the timescale of experiments or simulations, leading to faster than exponential dynamics.

Evaluation of high-resolution GRAMM-GRAL (v15.12/v14.8) NOx simulations over the city of Zürich, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berchet, Antoine; Zink, Katrin; Oettl, Dietmar; Brunner, Jürg; Emmenegger, Lukas; Brunner, Dominik

2017-09-01

Hourly NOx concentrations were simulated for the city of Zürich, Switzerland, at 10 m resolution for the years 2013-2014. The simulations were generated with the nested mesoscale meteorology and micro-scale dispersion model system GRAMM-GRAL (versions v15.12 and v14.8) by applying a catalogue-based approach. This approach was specifically designed to enable long-term city-wide building-resolving simulations with affordable computation costs. It relies on a discrete set of possible weather situations and corresponding steady-state flow and dispersion patterns that are pre-computed and then matched hourly with actual meteorological observations. The modelling system was comprehensively evaluated using eight sites continuously monitoring NOx concentrations and 65 passive samplers measuring NO2 concentrations on a 2-weekly basis all over the city. The system was demonstrated to fulfil the European Commission standards for air pollution modelling at nearly all sites. The average spatial distribution was very well represented, despite a general tendency to overestimate the observed concentrations, possibly due to a crude representation of traffic-induced turbulence and to underestimated dispersion in the vicinity of buildings. The temporal variability of concentrations explained by varying emissions and weather situations was accurately reproduced on different timescales. The seasonal cycle of concentrations, mostly driven by stronger vertical dispersion in summer than in winter, was very well captured in the 2-year simulation period. Short-term events, such as episodes of particularly high and low concentrations, were detected in most cases by the system, although some unrealistic pollution peaks were occasionally generated, pointing at some limitations of the steady-state approximation. The different patterns of the diurnal cycle of concentrations observed in the city were generally well captured as well. The evaluation confirmed the adequacy of the catalogue-based approach in the context of city-scale air pollution modelling. The ability to reproduce not only the spatial gradients but also the hourly temporal variability over multiple years makes the model system particularly suitable for investigating individualized air pollution exposure in the city.

Lightning-driven electric and magnetic fields measured in the stratosphere: Implications for sprites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Jeremy Norman

A well accepted model for sprite production involves quasi-electrostatic fields (QSF) driven by large positive cloud-to-ground (+CG) strokes that can cause electrical breakdown in the middle atmosphere. A new high voltage, high impedance, double Langmuir probe instrument is designed specifically for measuring these large lightning-driven electric field changes at altitudes above 30 km. This High Voltage (HV) Electric Field Detector measured 200 nearby (<75 km) lightning-driven electric field changes, up to 140 V/m in magnitude, during the Brazil Sprite Balloon Campaign 2002--03. A numerical QSF model is developed and compared to the in situ measurements. It is found that the amplitudes and relaxation times of the electric fields driven by these nearby lightning events generally agree with the numerical QSF model, which suggests that the QSF approach is valid for modeling lightning-driven fields. Using the best fit parameters of this comparison, it is predicted that the electric fields at sprite altitudes (60--90 km) never surpass conventional breakdown in the mesosphere for each of these 200 nearby lightning events. Lightning-driven ELF to VLF (25 Hz--8 kHz) electric field changes were measured for each of the 2467 cloud-to-ground lightning (CGs) detected by the Brazilian Integrated Lightning Network (BIN) at distances of 75--600 km, and magnetic field changes (300 Hz--8 kHz) above the background noise were measured for about 35% (858) of these CGs. ELF pulses that occur 4--12 ms after the retarded time of the lightning sferic, which have been previously attributed to sprites, were found for 1.4% of 934 CGs examined with a strong bias towards +CGs (4.9% or 9/184) compared to -CGs (0.5% or 4/750). These results disagree with results from the Sprites99 Balloon Campaign [Bering et al., 2004b], in which the lightning-driven electric and magnetic field changes were rare, while the CG delayed ELF pulses were frequent. The Brazil Campaign results thus suggest that mesospheric currents are likely the result of the QSF driven by large charge moment strokes, which are usually +CG strokes, initiating breakdown in the middle atmosphere.

Rotation in a gravitational billiard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peraza-Mues, G. G.; Carvente, Osvaldo; Moukarzel, Cristian F.

Gravitational billiards composed of a viscoelastic frictional disk bouncing on a vibrating wedge have been studied previously, but only from the point of view of their translational behavior. In this work, the average rotational velocity of the disk is studied under various circumstances. First, an experimental realization is briefly presented, which shows sustained rotation when the wedge is tilted. Next, this phenomenon is scrutinized in close detail using a precise numerical implementation of frictional forces. We show that the bouncing disk acquires a spontaneous rotational velocity whenever the wedge angle is not bisected by the direction of gravity. Our molecular dynamics (MD) results are well reproduced by event-driven (ED) simulations. When the wedge aperture angle θW>π/2, the average tangential velocity Rω¯ of the disk scales with the typical wedge vibration velocity vb, and is in general a nonmonotonic function of the overall tilt angle θT of the wedge. The present work focuses on wedges with θW=2π/3, which are relevant for the problem of spontaneous rotation in vibrated disk packings. This study makes part of the PhD Thesis of G. G. Peraza-Mues.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Omelchenko, Yuri A.

Global interactions of energetic ions with magnetoplasmas and neutral gases lie at the core of many space and laboratory plasma phenomena ranging from solar wind entry into and transport within planetary magnetospheres and exospheres to fast-ion driven instabilities in fusion devices to astrophysics-in-lab experiments. The ability of computational models to properly account for physical effects that underlie such interactions, namely ion kinetic, ion cyclotron, Hall, collisional and ionization processes is important for the success and planning of experimental research in plasma physics. Understanding the physics of energetic ions, in particular their nonlinear resonance interactions with Alfvén waves, is central tomore » improving the heating performance of magnetically confined plasmas for future energy generation. Fluid models are not adequate for high-beta plasmas as they cannot fully capture ion kinetic and cyclotron physics (e.g., ion behavior in the presence of magnetic nulls, shock structures, plasma interpenetration, etc.). Recent results from global reconnection simulations show that even in a MHD-like regime there may be significant differences between kinetic and MHD simulations. Therefore, kinetic modeling becomes essential for meeting modern day challenges in plasma physics. The hybrid approximation is an intermediate approximation between the fluid and fully kinetic approximations. It eliminates light waves, removes the electron inertial temporal and spatial scales from the problem and enables full-orbit ion kinetics. As a result, hybrid codes have become effective tools for exploring ion-scale driven phenomena associated with ion beams, shocks, reconnection and turbulence that control the large-scale behavior of laboratory and space magnetoplasmas. A number of numerical issues, however, make three-dimensional (3D) large-scale hybrid simulations of inhomogeneous magnetized plasmas prohibitively expensive or even impossible. To resolve these difficulties we have developed a novel Event-driven Multiscale Asynchronous Parallel Simulation (EMAPS) technology that replaces time stepping with self-adaptive update events. Local calculations are carried out only on an “as needed basis”. EMAPS (i) guarantees accurate and stable processing of physical variables in time accurate simulations, and (ii) eliminates unnecessary computation. Applying EMAPS to the hybrid model has resulted in the development of a unique parallel code, dimension-independent (compile-time-configurable) HYPERS (Hybrid Parallel Event-Resolved Simulator) that scales to hundreds of thousands of parallel processors. HYPERS advances electromagnetic fields and particles asynchronously on time scales determined by local physical laws and mesh properties. To achieve high computational accuracy in complex device geometries, HYPERS employs high-fidelity Cartesian grids with masked conductive cells. The HYPERS model includes multiple ion species, energy and momentum conserving ion-ion collisions, and provides a number of approximations for plasma resistivity and vacuum regions. Both local and periodic boundary conditions are allowed. The HYPERS solver preserves zero divergence of magnetic field. The project has demonstrated HYPERS capabilities on a number of applications of interest to fusion and astrophysical plasma physics applications listed below. 1. Theta-pinch formation of FRCs The formation, spontaneous spin-up, and stability of theta-pinch formed field-reversed configurations have been studied self-consistently in 3D. The end-to-end hybrid simulations reveal poloidal profiles of implosion-driven fast toroidal plasma rotation and demonstrate three discharge regimes as a function of experimental parameters: the decaying stable configuration, the tilt unstable configuration, and the nonlinear evolution of a fast growing tearing mode. 2. FRC collisions with magnetic mirrors Interactions of fast plasma streams and objects with magnetic obstacles (dipoles, mirrors, etc) lie at the core of many space and laboratory plasma phenomena ranging from magnetoshells and solar wind interactions with planetary magnetospheres to compact fusion plasmas. HYPERS simulations are compared with data from the MSX experiment (LANL) that focuses on the physics of magnetized collisionless shocks through the acceleration and subsequent stagnation of FRC plasmoids against a strong magnetic mirrors and flux-conserving boundaries. 3. Exploding magnetoplasmas Results from hybrid simulations of two experiments at the LAPD and Nevada Terawatt Facility are discussed where short-pulse lasers are used to ablate solid targets to produce plasmas that expand across external magnetic fields. The first simulation recreates flutelike density striations observed at the leading edge of a carbon plasma and predicts an early destruction of the magnetic cavity in agreement with experimental evidence. In the second simulation a polyethylene target is ablated into a mixture of protons and carbon ions. A mechanism is demonstrated that allows protons to penetrate the magnetic field in the form of a collimated flow. The results are compared to experimental data and single-fluid MHD simulations. The EMAPS framework has the potential for wide application in many other engineering and scientific fields, such as climate models, biological systems, electronic devices, seismic events, oil reservation simulators that all involve advancing solutions of partial differential equations in time where the rate of activity can be adapted widely over the spatial domain depending on locally space/time phenomena (“events”).« less

The oceanic boundary layer driven by wave breaking with stochastic variability. Part 1. Direct numerical simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sullivan, Peter P.; McWilliams, James C.; Melville, W. Kendall

2004-05-01

We devise a stochastic model for the effects of breaking waves and fit its distribution functions to laboratory and field data. This is used to represent the space time structure of momentum and energy forcing of the oceanic boundary layer in turbulence-resolving simulations. The aptness of this breaker model is evaluated in a direct numerical simulation (DNS) of an otherwise quiescent fluid driven by an isolated breaking wave, and the results are in good agreement with laboratory measurements. The breaker model faithfully reproduces the bulk features of a breaking event: the mean kinetic energy decays at a rate approaching t(-1) , and a long-lived vortex (eddy) is generated close to the water surface. The long lifetime of this vortex (more than 50 wave periods) makes it effective in energizing the surface region of oceanic boundary layers. Next, a comparison of several different DNS of idealized oceanic boundary layers driven by different surface forcing (i.e. constant current (as in Couette flow), constant stress, or a mixture of constant stress plus stochastic breakers) elucidates the importance of intermittent stress transmission to the underlying currents. A small amount of active breaking, about 1.6% of the total water surface area at any instant in time, significantly alters the instantaneous flow patterns as well as the ensemble statistics. Near the water surface a vigorous downwelling upwelling pattern develops at the head and tail of each three-dimensional breaker. This enhances the vertical velocity variance and generates both negative- and positive-signed vertical momentum flux. Analysis of the mean velocity and scalar profiles shows that breaking effectively increases the surface roughness z_o by more than a factor of 30; for our simulations z_o/lambda {≈} 0.04 to 0.06, where lambda is the wavelength of the breaking wave. Compared to a flow driven by a constant current, the extra mixing from breakers increases the mean eddy viscosity by more than a factor of 10 near the water surface. Breaking waves alter the usual balance of production and dissipation in the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budget; turbulent and pressure transports and breaker work are important sources and sinks in the budget. We also show that turbulent boundary layers driven by constant current and constant stress (i.e. with no breaking) differ in fundamental ways. The additional freedom provided by a constant-stress boundary condition permits finite velocity variances at the water surface, so that flows driven by constant stress mimic flows with weakly and statistically homogeneous breaking waves.

A New Path-Constrained Rendezvous Planning Approach for Large-Scale Event-Driven Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Zhang, Gongxuan; Wang, Yongli; Wang, Tianshu

2018-01-01

We study the problem of employing a mobile-sink into a large-scale Event-Driven Wireless Sensor Networks (EWSNs) for the purpose of data harvesting from sensor-nodes. Generally, this employment improves the main weakness of WSNs that is about energy-consumption in battery-driven sensor-nodes. The main motivation of our work is to address challenges which are related to a network’s topology by adopting a mobile-sink that moves in a predefined trajectory in the environment. Since, in this fashion, it is not possible to gather data from sensor-nodes individually, we adopt the approach of defining some of the sensor-nodes as Rendezvous Points (RPs) in the network. We argue that RP-planning in this case is a tradeoff between minimizing the number of RPs while decreasing the number of hops for a sensor-node that needs data transformation to the related RP which leads to minimizing average energy consumption in the network. We address the problem by formulating the challenges and expectations as a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). Henceforth, by proving the NP-hardness of the problem, we propose three effective and distributed heuristics for RP-planning, identifying sojourn locations, and constructing routing trees. Finally, experimental results prove the effectiveness of our approach. PMID:29734718

A New Path-Constrained Rendezvous Planning Approach for Large-Scale Event-Driven Wireless Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Vajdi, Ahmadreza; Zhang, Gongxuan; Zhou, Junlong; Wei, Tongquan; Wang, Yongli; Wang, Tianshu

2018-05-04

We study the problem of employing a mobile-sink into a large-scale Event-Driven Wireless Sensor Networks (EWSNs) for the purpose of data harvesting from sensor-nodes. Generally, this employment improves the main weakness of WSNs that is about energy-consumption in battery-driven sensor-nodes. The main motivation of our work is to address challenges which are related to a network’s topology by adopting a mobile-sink that moves in a predefined trajectory in the environment. Since, in this fashion, it is not possible to gather data from sensor-nodes individually, we adopt the approach of defining some of the sensor-nodes as Rendezvous Points (RPs) in the network. We argue that RP-planning in this case is a tradeoff between minimizing the number of RPs while decreasing the number of hops for a sensor-node that needs data transformation to the related RP which leads to minimizing average energy consumption in the network. We address the problem by formulating the challenges and expectations as a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). Henceforth, by proving the NP-hardness of the problem, we propose three effective and distributed heuristics for RP-planning, identifying sojourn locations, and constructing routing trees. Finally, experimental results prove the effectiveness of our approach.

Simulation of local convective rainfall over metropolitan area on 16 August 2015 using high resolution model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Y. H.; Min, K. H.

2017-12-01

We investigated the ability of high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model (nested grid spacing at 500 m) in simulating convective precipitation event over the Seoul metropolitan area on 16 August 2015. Intense rainfall occurred from 0930 UTC to 1030 UTC and subsequent trailing precipitation lasted until 1400 UTC. The synoptic condition for the convective event was characterized by a large value of convective available potential energy (CAPE) at the outer edge of a meso-high pressure system. Observational analysis showed that triggering mechanism for convective rainfall was provided by the convergence of northeasterly wind which was driven by a cold pool in the northeastern Kyonggi province. The cold pool formed after heavy rain occurred in northeastern Kyonggi province at 0500UTC. Several experiments were performed in order to evaluate the sensitivity of different initial conditions (IC12, IC18, IC00, IC06) and the impact of data assimilation (IC06A) on simulating the convective event. The quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) appeared to vary widely among the experiments, depending on the timing of ICs that were chosen. QPF amount was underestimated in all experiments when data assimilation was not performed. Among the four experiments, QPF amounts and locations were better simulated in the 1200 UTC 15 August (IC12) run due to large values of CAPE in late afternoon and the presence of low-level convergence zone in the metropolitan area. Although 0600 UTC 16 August (IC06) run simulated the largest CAPE in late afternoon, the location and amount of heavy rainfall were significantly different from observations. IC06 did not simulate the convergence of low-level wind associated with the mesoscale cold pool. However, when assimilation of surface observations and radar data at 0600 UTC was performed (IC06A), the simulation reproduced the location and amount of rainfall reasonably well, indicating that high-resolution NWP model with data assimilation can predict the local convective precipitation event with a short-life time (1 3 hours) effectively within 6 hours.

High-performance computational fluid dynamics: a custom-code approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fannon, James; Loiseau, Jean-Christophe; Valluri, Prashant; Bethune, Iain; Náraigh, Lennon Ó.

2016-07-01

We introduce a modified and simplified version of the pre-existing fully parallelized three-dimensional Navier-Stokes flow solver known as TPLS. We demonstrate how the simplified version can be used as a pedagogical tool for the study of computational fluid dynamics (CFDs) and parallel computing. TPLS is at its heart a two-phase flow solver, and uses calls to a range of external libraries to accelerate its performance. However, in the present context we narrow the focus of the study to basic hydrodynamics and parallel computing techniques, and the code is therefore simplified and modified to simulate pressure-driven single-phase flow in a channel, using only relatively simple Fortran 90 code with MPI parallelization, but no calls to any other external libraries. The modified code is analysed in order to both validate its accuracy and investigate its scalability up to 1000 CPU cores. Simulations are performed for several benchmark cases in pressure-driven channel flow, including a turbulent simulation, wherein the turbulence is incorporated via the large-eddy simulation technique. The work may be of use to advanced undergraduate and graduate students as an introductory study in CFDs, while also providing insight for those interested in more general aspects of high-performance computing.

Specialization and generalization in the diversification of phytophagous insects: tests of the musical chairs and oscillation hypotheses

PubMed Central

Hardy, Nate B.; Otto, Sarah P.

2014-01-01

Evolutionary biologists have often assumed that ecological generalism comes at the expense of less intense exploitation of specific resources and that this trade-off will promote the evolution of ecologically specialized daughter species. Using a phylogenetic comparative approach with butterflies as a model system, we test hypotheses that incorporate changes in niche breadth and location into explanations of the taxonomic diversification of insect herbivores. Specifically, we compare the oscillation hypothesis, where speciation is driven by host-plant generalists giving rise to specialist daughter species, to the musical chairs hypothesis, where speciation is driven by host-plant switching, without changes in niche breadth. Contrary to the predictions of the oscillation hypothesis, we recover a negative relationship between host-plant breadth and diversification rate and find that changes in host breadth are seldom coupled to speciation events. By contrast, we present evidence for a positive relationship between rates of host switching and butterfly diversification, consonant with the musical chairs hypothesis. These results suggest that the costs of trophic generalism in plant-feeding insects may have been overvalued and that transitions from generalists to ecological specialists may not be an important driver of speciation in general. PMID:25274368

Evaluation of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with temperature extremes in the NARCCAP regional climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, Paul C.; Waliser, Duane E.; Lee, Huikyo; Neelin, J. David; Lintner, Benjamin R.; McGinnis, Seth; Mearns, Linda O.; Kim, Jinwon

2015-12-01

Large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) associated with temperature extremes are evaluated in a suite of regional climate model (RCM) simulations contributing to the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. LSMPs are characterized through composites of surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies concurrent with extreme temperature days. Six of the seventeen RCM simulations are driven by boundary conditions from reanalysis while the other eleven are driven by one of four global climate models (GCMs). Four illustrative case studies are analyzed in detail. Model fidelity in LSMP spatial representation is high for cold winter extremes near Chicago. Winter warm extremes are captured by most RCMs in northern California, with some notable exceptions. Model fidelity is lower for cool summer days near Houston and extreme summer heat events in the Ohio Valley. Physical interpretation of these patterns and identification of well-simulated cases, such as for Chicago, boosts confidence in the ability of these models to simulate days in the tails of the temperature distribution. Results appear consistent with the expectation that the ability of an RCM to reproduce a realistically shaped frequency distribution for temperature, especially at the tails, is related to its fidelity in simulating LMSPs. Each ensemble member is ranked for its ability to reproduce LSMPs associated with observed warm and cold extremes, identifying systematically high performing RCMs and the GCMs that provide superior boundary forcing. The methodology developed here provides a framework for identifying regions where further process-based evaluation would improve the understanding of simulation error and help guide future model improvement and downscaling efforts.

Toward a detailed description of the pathways of allosteric communication in the GroEL chaperonin through atomistic simulation.

PubMed

Piggot, Thomas J; Sessions, Richard B; Burston, Steven G

2012-02-28

GroEL, along with its coprotein GroES, is essential for ensuring the correct folding of unfolded or newly synthesized proteins in bacteria. GroEL is a complex, allosteric molecule, composed of two heptameric rings stacked back to back, that undergoes large structural changes during its reaction cycle. These structural changes are driven by the cooperative binding and subsequent hydrolysis of ATP, by GroEL. Despite numerous previous studies, the precise mechanisms of allosteric communication and the associated structural changes remain elusive. In this paper, we describe a series of all-atom, unbiased, molecular dynamics simulations over relatively long (50-100 ns) time scales of a single, isolated GroEL subunit and also a heptameric GroEL ring, in the presence and absence of ATP. Combined with results from a distance restraint-biased simulation of the single ring, the atomistic details of the earliest stages of ATP-driven structural changes within this complex molecule are illuminated. Our results are in broad agreement with previous modeling studies of isolated subunits and with a coarse-grained, forcing simulation of the single ring. These are the first reported all-atom simulations of the GroEL single-ring complex and provide a unique insight into the role of charged residues K80, K277, R284, R285, and E388 at the subunit interface in transmission of the allosteric signal. These simulations also demonstrate the feasibility of performing all-atom simulations of very large systems on sufficiently long time scales on typical high performance computing facilities to show the origins of the earliest events in biologically relevant processes.

High-resolution dynamical downscaling of the future Alpine climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bozhinova, Denica; José Gómez-Navarro, Juan; Raible, Christoph

2017-04-01

The Alpine region and Switzerland is a challenging area for simulating and analysing Global Climate Model (GCM) results. This is mostly due to the combination of a very complex topography and the still rather coarse horizontal resolution of current GCMs, in which not all of the many-scale processes that drive the local weather and climate can be resolved. In our study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to dynamically downscale a GCM simulation to a resolution as high as 2 km x 2 km. WRF is driven by initial and boundary conditions produced with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for the recent past (control run) and until 2100 using the RCP8.5 climate scenario (future run). The control run downscaled with WRF covers the period 1976-2005, while the future run investigates a 20-year-slice simulated for the 2080-2099. We compare the control WRF-CESM simulations to an observational product provided by MeteoSwiss and an additional WRF simulation driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis, to estimate the bias that is introduced by the extra modelling step of our framework. Several bias-correction methods are evaluated, including a quantile mapping technique, to ameliorate the bias in the control WRF-CESM simulation. In the next step of our study these corrections are applied to our future WRF-CESM run. The resulting downscaled and bias-corrected data is analysed for the properties of precipitation and wind speed in the future climate. Our special interest focuses on the absolute quantities simulated for these meteorological variables as these are used to identify extreme events, such as wind storms and situations that can lead to floods.

The extratropical 40-day oscillation in the UCLA general circulation model. Part 1: Atmospheric angular momentum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marcus, S. L.; Ghil, M.; Dickey, J. O.

1994-01-01

Variations in atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) are examined in a three-year simulation of the large-scale atmosphere with perpetual January forcing. The simulation is performed with a version of the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA) general circulation model that contains no tropical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). In addition, the results of three shorter experiments with no topography are analyzed. The three-year standard topography run contains no significant intraseasonal AAM periodicity in the tropics, consistent with the lack of the MJO, but produces a robust, 42-day AAM oscillation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics. The model tropics undergoes a barotropic, zonally symmetric oscillation, driven by an exchange of mass with the NH extratropics. No intraseasonal periodicity is found in the average tropical latent heating field, indicating that the model oscillation is dynamically rather than thermodynamically driven. The no-mountain runs fail to produce an intraseasonal AAM oscillation, consistent with a topographic origin for the NH extratropical oscillation in the standard model. The spatial patterns of the oscillation in the 500-mb height field, and the relationship of the extratropical oscillation to intraseasonal variations in the tropics, will be discussed in Part 2 of this study.

Precipitation event tracking reveals that precipitation characteristics respond differently under seasonal, interannual, and anthropogenic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, C.; Chang, W.; Kong, W.; Wang, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Stein, M.; Moyer, E. J.

2017-12-01

Change in precipitation characteristics is an especially concerning potential impact of climate change, and both model and observational studies suggest that increases in precipitation intensity are likely. However, studies to date have focused on mean accumulated precipitation rather than on the characteristics of individual events. We report here on a study using a novel rainstorm identification tracking algorithm (Chang et al. 2016) that allows evaluating changes in spatio-temporal characteristics of events. We analyze high-resolution precipitation from dynamically downscaled regional climate simulations over the continental U.S. (WRF driven by CCSM4) of present and future climate conditions. We show that precipitation events show distinct characteristic changes for natural seasonal and interannual variations and for anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing. In all cases, wetter seasons/years/future climate states are associated with increased precipitation intensity, but other precipitation characteristics respond differently to the different drivers. For example, under anthropogenic forcing, future wetter climate states involve smaller individual event sizes (partially offsetting their increased intensity). Under natural variability, however, wetter years involve larger mean event sizes. Event identification and tracking algorithms thus allow distinguishing drivers of different types of precipitation changes, and in relating those changes to large-scale processes.

Behavior coordination of mobile robotics using supervisory control of fuzzy discrete event systems.

PubMed

Jayasiri, Awantha; Mann, George K I; Gosine, Raymond G

2011-10-01

In order to incorporate the uncertainty and impreciseness present in real-world event-driven asynchronous systems, fuzzy discrete event systems (DESs) (FDESs) have been proposed as an extension to crisp DESs. In this paper, first, we propose an extension to the supervisory control theory of FDES by redefining fuzzy controllable and uncontrollable events. The proposed supervisor is capable of enabling feasible uncontrollable and controllable events with different possibilities. Then, the extended supervisory control framework of FDES is employed to model and control several navigational tasks of a mobile robot using the behavior-based approach. The robot has limited sensory capabilities, and the navigations have been performed in several unmodeled environments. The reactive and deliberative behaviors of the mobile robotic system are weighted through fuzzy uncontrollable and controllable events, respectively. By employing the proposed supervisory controller, a command-fusion-type behavior coordination is achieved. The observability of fuzzy events is incorporated to represent the sensory imprecision. As a systematic analysis of the system, a fuzzy-state-based controllability measure is introduced. The approach is implemented in both simulation and real time. A performance evaluation is performed to quantitatively estimate the validity of the proposed approach over its counterparts.

A transferable coarse-grained model for diphenylalanine: How to represent an environment driven conformational transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalgicdir, Cahit; Sensoy, Ozge; Peter, Christine; Sayar, Mehmet

2013-12-01

One of the major challenges in the development of coarse grained (CG) simulation models that aim at biomolecular structure formation processes is the correct representation of an environment-driven conformational change, for example, a folding/unfolding event upon interaction with an interface or upon aggregation. In the present study, we investigate this transferability challenge for a CG model using the example of diphenylalanine. This dipeptide displays a transition from a trans-like to a cis-like conformation upon aggregation as well as upon transfer from bulk water to the cyclohexane/water interface. Here, we show that one can construct a single CG model that can reproduce both the bulk and interface conformational behavior and the segregation between hydrophobic/hydrophilic medium. While the general strategy to obtain nonbonded interactions in the present CG model is to reproduce solvation free energies of small molecules representing the CG beads in the respective solvents, the success of the model strongly depends on nontrivial decisions one has to make to capture the delicate balance between the bonded and nonbonded interactions. In particular, we found that the peptide's conformational behavior is qualitatively affected by the cyclohexane/water interaction potential, an interaction that does not directly involve the peptide at all but merely influences the properties of the hydrophobic/hydrophilic interface. Furthermore, we show that a small modification to improve the structural/conformational properties of the CG model could dramatically alter the thermodynamic properties.

MM/PBSA analysis of molecular dynamics simulations of bovine beta-lactoglobulin: free energy gradients in conformational transitions?

PubMed

Fogolari, Federico; Moroni, Elisabetta; Wojciechowski, Marcin; Baginski, Maciej; Ragona, Laura; Molinari, Henriette

2005-04-01

The pH-driven opening and closure of beta-lactoglobulin EF loop, acting as a lid and closing the internal cavity of the protein, has been studied by molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and free energy calculations based on molecular mechanics/Poisson-Boltzmann (PB) solvent-accessible surface area (MM/PBSA) methodology. The forms above and below the transition pH differ presumably only in the protonation state of residue Glu89. MM/PBSA calculations are able to reproduce qualitatively the thermodynamics of the transition. The analysis of MD simulations using a combination of MM/PBSA methodology and the colony energy approach is able to highlight the driving forces implied in the transition. The analysis suggests that global rearrangements take place before the equilibrium local conformation is reached. This conclusion may bear general relevance to conformational transitions in all lipocalins and proteins in general. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Regional Evaluation of the Severity-Based Stroke Triage Algorithm for Emergency Medical Services Using Discrete Event Simulation.

PubMed

Bogle, Brittany M; Asimos, Andrew W; Rosamond, Wayne D

2017-10-01

The Severity-Based Stroke Triage Algorithm for Emergency Medical Services endorses routing patients with suspected large vessel occlusion acute ischemic strokes directly to endovascular stroke centers (ESCs). We sought to evaluate different specifications of this algorithm within a region. We developed a discrete event simulation environment to model patients with suspected stroke transported according to algorithm specifications, which varied by stroke severity screen and permissible additional transport time for routing patients to ESCs. We simulated King County, Washington, and Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, distributing patients geographically into census tracts. Transport time to the nearest hospital and ESC was estimated using traffic-based travel times. We assessed undertriage, overtriage, transport time, and the number-needed-to-route, defined as the number of patients enduring additional transport to route one large vessel occlusion patient to an ESC. Undertriage was higher and overtriage was lower in King County compared with Mecklenburg County for each specification. Overtriage variation was primarily driven by screen (eg, 13%-55% in Mecklenburg County and 10%-40% in King County). Transportation time specifications beyond 20 minutes increased overtriage and decreased undertriage in King County but not Mecklenburg County. A low- versus high-specificity screen routed 3.7× more patients to ESCs. Emergency medical services spent nearly twice the time routing patients to ESCs in King County compared with Mecklenburg County. Our results demonstrate how discrete event simulation can facilitate informed decision making to optimize emergency medical services stroke severity-based triage algorithms. This is the first step toward developing a mature simulation to predict patient outcomes. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Intermittency in flux driven kinetic simulations of trapped ion turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darmet, G.; Ghendrih, Ph.; Sarazin, Y.; Garbet, X.; Grandgirard, V.

2008-02-01

Flux driven kinetic transport is analysed for deeply trapped ion turbulence with the code GYSELA. The main observation is the existence of a steady state situation with respect to the statistics, in particular the balance between the injected energy and the time averaged energy flowing out through the outer edge boundary layer. The temperature is characterised by a very bursty behaviour with a skewed PDF. Superimposed to these short time scale fluctuations, one finds a regime with a strong increase of the zonal flows and a quenching of the turbulent energy. During this phase of such a predator-prey cycle, the core temperature rapidly increases while the edge temperature gradually decreases. The end of this reduced transport regime is governed by the onset of turbulence that governs large relaxation events, and a strong modification of the zonal flow pattern.

Direct observation of two-step crystallization in nanoparticle superlattice formation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Park, Jungwon; Zheng, Haimei; Lee, Won Chul

2011-10-06

Direct imaging of nanoparticle solutions by liquid phase transmission electron microscopy has enabled unique in-situ studies of nanoparticle motion and growth. In the present work, we report on real-time formation of two-dimensional nanoparticle arrays in the very low diffusive limit, where nanoparticles are mainly driven by capillary forces and solvent fluctuations. We find that superlattice formation appears to be segregated into multiple regimes. Initially, the solvent front drags the nanoparticles, condensing them into an amorphous agglomerate. Subsequently, the nanoparticle crystallization into an array is driven by local fluctuations. Following the crystallization event, superlattice growth can also occur via the additionmore » of individual nanoparticles drawn from outlying regions by different solvent fronts. The dragging mechanism is consistent with simulations based on a coarse-grained lattice gas model at the same limit.« less

Probing the magnetic field structure in Sgr A* on Black Hole Horizon Scales with Polarized Radiative Transfer Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gold, Roman; McKinney, Jonathan; Johnson, Michael; Doeleman, Sheperd; Event Horizon Telescope Collaboration

2016-03-01

Accreting black holes (BHs) are at the core of relativistic astrophysics as messengers of the strong-field regime of General Relativity and prime targets of several observational campaigns, including imaging the black hole shadow in SagA* and M87 with the Event Horizon Telescope. I will present results from general-relativistic, polarized radiatiative transfer models for the inner accretion flow in Sgr A*. The models use time dependent, global GRMHD simulations of hot accretion flows including standard-and-normal-evolution (SANE) and magnetically arrested disks (MAD). I present comparisons of these synthetic data sets to the most recent observations with the Event Horizon Telescope and show how the data distinguishes the models and probes the magnetic field structure.

Fast low-to-high confinement mode bifurcation dynamics in a tokamak edge plasma gyrokinetic simulation

DOE PAGES

Chang, C. S.; Ku, S.; Tynan, G. R.; ...

2017-04-25

Transport barrier formation and its relation to sheared flows in fluids and plasmas are of fundamental interest in various natural and laboratory observations and of critical importance in achieving an economical energy production in a magnetic fusion device. Here we report the first observation of an edge transport barrier formation event in an electrostatic gyrokinetic simulation carried out in a realistic diverted tokamak edge geometry under strong forcing by a high rate of heat deposition. Here, the results show that turbulent Reynolds-stress-driven sheared E x B flows act in concert with neoclassical orbit loss to quench turbulent transport and formmore » a transport barrier just inside the last closed magnetic flux surface.« less

Case Studies of Forecasting Ionospheric Total Electron Content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mannucci, A. J.; Meng, X.; Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Tsurutani, B.; McGranaghan, R. M.

2017-12-01

We report on medium-range forecast-mode runs of ionosphere-thermosphere coupled models that calculate ionospheric total electron content (TEC), focusing on low-latitude daytime conditions. A medium-range forecast-mode run refers to simulations that are driven by inputs that can be predicted 2-3 days in advance, for example based on simulations of the solar wind. We will present results from a weak geomagnetic storm caused by a high-speed solar wind stream on June 29, 2012. Simulations based on the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (GITM) and the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Model (TIEGCM) significantly over-estimate TEC in certain low latitude daytime regions, compared to TEC maps based on observations. We will present the results from a more intense coronal mass ejection (CME) driven storm where the simulations are closer to observations. We compare high latitude data sets to model inputs, such as auroral boundary and convection patterns, to assess the degree to which poorly estimated high latitude drivers may be the largest cause of discrepancy between simulations and observations. Our results reveal many factors that can affect the accuracy of forecasts, including the fidelity of empirical models used to estimate high latitude precipitation patterns, or observation proxies for solar EUV spectra, such as the F10.7 index. Implications for forecasts with few-day lead times are discussed

Simulations of carbon fiber composite delamination tests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kay, G

2007-10-25

Simulations of mode I interlaminar fracture toughness tests of a carbon-reinforced composite material (BMS 8-212) were conducted with LSDYNA. The fracture toughness tests were performed by U.C. Berkeley. The simulations were performed to investigate the validity and practicality of employing decohesive elements to represent interlaminar bond failures that are prevalent in carbon-fiber composite structure penetration events. The simulations employed a decohesive element formulation that was verified on a simple two element model before being employed to perform the full model simulations. Care was required during the simulations to ensure that the explicit time integration of LSDYNA duplicate the near steady-statemore » testing conditions. In general, this study validated the use of employing decohesive elements to represent the interlaminar bond failures seen in carbon-fiber composite structures, but the practicality of employing the elements to represent the bond failures seen in carbon-fiber composite structures during penetration events was not established.« less

Generality in nanotechnologies and its relationship to economic performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomez Baquero, Fernando

In the history if economic analysis there is perhaps no more important question than the one of how economic development is achieved. For more than a century, economists have explored the role of technology in economic growth but there is still much to be learned about the effect that technologies, in particular emerging ones, have on economic growth and productivity. The objective of this research is to understand the relationship between nanotechnologies and economic growth and productivity, using the theory of General Purpose Technology (GPT)-driven economic growth. To do so, the Generality Index (calculated from patent data) was used to understand the relative pervasiveness of nanotechnologies. The analysis of trends and patterns of Generality Index, using the largest group of patents since the publication of the NBER Patent Database, indicates that nanotechnologies possess a higher average Generality than other technological groups. Next, the relationship between the Generality Index and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) was studied using econometric analysis. Model estimates indicate that the variation in Generality for the group of nanotechnologies can explain a large proportion of the variation in TFP. However, the explanatory power of the entire set of patents (not just nanotechnologies) is larger and corresponds better to the expected theoretical models. Additionally, there is a negative short-run relationship between Generality and TFP, conflicting with part of the theoretical GPT-models. Finally, the relationship between the Generality of nanotechnologies and policy-driven investment events, such as R&D investments and grant awards, was studied using econometric methods. The statistical evidence suggests that NSF awards are related to technologies with higher Generality, while NIH awards and NNI investments are related to a lower average Generality. Overall, results of this research work indicate that the introduction of pervasive technologies into an economic system sets in motion an interesting series of events that can both increase and decrease productivity and therefore economic growth. The metrics and methods developed in this work emphasize the importance of developing and using new metrics for strategic decision making, both in the private sector and in the public sector.

Solar Occultation Retrieval Algorithm Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lumpe, Jerry D.

2004-01-01

This effort addresses the comparison and validation of currently operational solar occultation retrieval algorithms, and the development of generalized algorithms for future application to multiple platforms. initial development of generalized forward model algorithms capable of simulating transmission data from of the POAM II/III and SAGE II/III instruments. Work in the 2" quarter will focus on: completion of forward model algorithms, including accurate spectral characteristics for all instruments, and comparison of simulated transmission data with actual level 1 instrument data for specific occultation events.

Variance stabilization and normalization for one-color microarray data using a data-driven multiscale approach.

PubMed

Motakis, E S; Nason, G P; Fryzlewicz, P; Rutter, G A

2006-10-15

Many standard statistical techniques are effective on data that are normally distributed with constant variance. Microarray data typically violate these assumptions since they come from non-Gaussian distributions with a non-trivial mean-variance relationship. Several methods have been proposed that transform microarray data to stabilize variance and draw its distribution towards the Gaussian. Some methods, such as log or generalized log, rely on an underlying model for the data. Others, such as the spread-versus-level plot, do not. We propose an alternative data-driven multiscale approach, called the Data-Driven Haar-Fisz for microarrays (DDHFm) with replicates. DDHFm has the advantage of being 'distribution-free' in the sense that no parametric model for the underlying microarray data is required to be specified or estimated; hence, DDHFm can be applied very generally, not just to microarray data. DDHFm achieves very good variance stabilization of microarray data with replicates and produces transformed intensities that are approximately normally distributed. Simulation studies show that it performs better than other existing methods. Application of DDHFm to real one-color cDNA data validates these results. The R package of the Data-Driven Haar-Fisz transform (DDHFm) for microarrays is available in Bioconductor and CRAN.

Vacancy-stabilized crystalline order in hard cubes

PubMed Central

Smallenburg, Frank; Filion, Laura; Marechal, Matthieu; Dijkstra, Marjolein

2012-01-01

We examine the effect of vacancies on the phase behavior and structure of systems consisting of hard cubes using event-driven molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations. We find a first-order phase transition between a fluid and a simple cubic crystal phase that is stabilized by a surprisingly large number of vacancies, reaching a net vacancy concentration of approximately 6.4% near bulk coexistence. Remarkably, we find that vacancies increase the positional order in the system. Finally, we show that the vacancies are delocalized and therefore hard to detect. PMID:23012241

Are Brazil nuts attractive?

PubMed

Sanders, Duncan A; Swift, Michael R; Bowley, R M; King, P J

2004-11-12

We present event-driven simulation results for single and multiple intruders in a vertically vibrated granular bed. Under our vibratory conditions, the mean vertical position of a single intruder is governed primarily by a buoyancylike effect. Multiple intruders also exhibit buoyancy governed behavior; however, multiple neutrally buoyant intruders cluster spontaneously and undergo horizontal segregation. These effects can be understood by considering the dynamics of two neutrally buoyant intruders. We have measured an attractive force between such intruders which has a range of five intruder diameters, and we provide a mechanistic explanation for the origins of this force.

Evolution of Precipitation Structure During the November DYNAMO MJO Event: Cloud-Resolving Model Intercomparison and Cross Validation Using Radar Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiaowen; Janiga, Matthew A.; Wang, Shuguang; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Rowe, Angela; Xu, Weixin; Liu, Chuntao; Matsui, Toshihisa; Zhang, Chidong

2018-04-01

Evolution of precipitation structures are simulated and compared with radar observations for the November Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event during the DYNAmics of the MJO (DYNAMO) field campaign. Three ground-based, ship-borne, and spaceborne precipitation radars and three cloud-resolving models (CRMs) driven by observed large-scale forcing are used to study precipitation structures at different locations over the central equatorial Indian Ocean. Convective strength is represented by 0-dBZ echo-top heights, and convective organization by contiguous 17-dBZ areas. The multi-radar and multi-model framework allows for more stringent model validations. The emphasis is on testing models' ability to simulate subtle differences observed at different radar sites when the MJO event passed through. The results show that CRMs forced by site-specific large-scale forcing can reproduce not only common features in cloud populations but also subtle variations observed by different radars. The comparisons also revealed common deficiencies in CRM simulations where they underestimate radar echo-top heights for the strongest convection within large, organized precipitation features. Cross validations with multiple radars and models also enable quantitative comparisons in CRM sensitivity studies using different large-scale forcing, microphysical schemes and parameters, resolutions, and domain sizes. In terms of radar echo-top height temporal variations, many model sensitivity tests have better correlations than radar/model comparisons, indicating robustness in model performance on this aspect. It is further shown that well-validated model simulations could be used to constrain uncertainties in observed echo-top heights when the low-resolution surveillance scanning strategy is used.

Atmospheric River Frequency and Intensity Changes in CMIP5 Climate Model Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, M.; Mass, C.; Salathe, E. P., Jr.

2012-12-01

Most extreme precipitation events that occur along the North American west coast are associated with narrow plumes of above-average water vapor concentration that stretch from the tropics or subtropics to the West Coast. These events generally occur during the wet season (October-March) and are referred to as atmospheric rivers (AR). ARs can cause major river management problems, damage from flooding or landslides, and loss of life. It is currently unclear how these events will change in frequency and intensity as a result of climate change in the coming century. While climate model global mean precipitation match observations reasonably well in historical runs, precipitation frequency and intensity is generally poorly represented at local scales; however, synoptic-scale features are more realistically simulated by climate models, and AR events can be identified by extremely high values of integrated water vapor flux at points near the West Coast. There have been many recent studies indicating changes in synoptic-scale features under climate change that could have meaningful impacts on the frequency and intensity of ARs. In this study, a suite of CMIP5 models are used to analyze predicted changes in frequency and intensity of AR events impacting the West Coast from the contemporary period (1970-1999) to the end of this century (2070-2099). Generally, integrated water vapor is predicted to increase in these models (both the mean and extremes) while low-level wind decreases and upper-level wind increases. This study aims to determine the influence of these changes on precipitation intensity in AR events in future climate simulations.

A Multi-mission Event-Driven Component-Based System for Support of Flight Software Development, ATLO, and Operations first used by the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dehghani, Navid; Tankenson, Michael

2006-01-01

This paper details an architectural description of the Mission Data Processing and Control System (MPCS), an event-driven, multi-mission ground data processing components providing uplink, downlink, and data management capabilities which will support the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) project as its first target mission. MPCS is developed based on a set of small reusable components, implemented in Java, each designed with a specific function and well-defined interfaces. An industry standard messaging bus is used to transfer information among system components. Components generate standard messages which are used to capture system information, as well as triggers to support the event-driven architecture of the system. Event-driven systems are highly desirable for processing high-rate telemetry (science and engineering) data, and for supporting automation for many mission operations processes.

Creating a driving profile for older adults using GPS devices and naturalistic driving methodology.

PubMed

Babulal, Ganesh M; Traub, Cindy M; Webb, Mollie; Stout, Sarah H; Addison, Aaron; Carr, David B; Ott, Brian R; Morris, John C; Roe, Catherine M

2016-01-01

Background/Objectives : Road tests and driving simulators are most commonly used in research studies and clinical evaluations of older drivers. Our objective was to describe the process and associated challenges in adapting an existing, commercial, off-the-shelf (COTS), in-vehicle device for naturalistic, longitudinal research to better understand daily driving behavior in older drivers. Design : The Azuga G2 Tracking Device TM was installed in each participant's vehicle, and we collected data over 5 months (speed, latitude/longitude) every 30-seconds when the vehicle was driven.  Setting : The Knight Alzheimer's Disease Research Center at Washington University School of Medicine. Participants : Five individuals enrolled in a larger, longitudinal study assessing preclinical Alzheimer disease and driving performance.  Participants were aged 65+ years and had normal cognition. Measurements :  Spatial components included Primary Location(s), Driving Areas, Mean Centers and Unique Destinations.  Temporal components included number of trips taken during different times of the day.  Behavioral components included number of hard braking, speeding and sudden acceleration events. Methods :  Individual 30-second observations, each comprising one breadcrumb, and trip-level data were collected and analyzed in R and ArcGIS.  Results : Primary locations were confirmed to be 100% accurate when compared to known addresses.  Based on the locations of the breadcrumbs, we were able to successfully identify frequently visited locations and general travel patterns.  Based on the reported time from the breadcrumbs, we could assess number of trips driven in daylight vs. night.  Data on additional events while driving allowed us to compute the number of adverse driving alerts over the course of the 5-month period. Conclusions : Compared to cameras and highly instrumented vehicle in other naturalistic studies, the compact COTS device was quickly installed and transmitted high volumes of data. Driving Profiles for older adults can be created and compared month-to-month or year-to-year, allowing researchers to identify changes in driving patterns that are unavailable in controlled conditions.

WIFIRE: A Scalable Data-Driven Monitoring, Dynamic Prediction and Resilience Cyberinfrastructure for Wildfires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altintas, I.; Block, J.; Braun, H.; de Callafon, R. A.; Gollner, M. J.; Smarr, L.; Trouve, A.

2013-12-01

Recent studies confirm that climate change will cause wildfires to increase in frequency and severity in the coming decades especially for California and in much of the North American West. The most critical sustainability issue in the midst of these ever-changing dynamics is how to achieve a new social-ecological equilibrium of this fire ecology. Wildfire wind speeds and directions change in an instant, and first responders can only be effective when they take action as quickly as the conditions change. To deliver information needed for sustainable policy and management in this dynamically changing fire regime, we must capture these details to understand the environmental processes. We are building an end-to-end cyberinfrastructure (CI), called WIFIRE, for real-time and data-driven simulation, prediction and visualization of wildfire behavior. The WIFIRE integrated CI system supports social-ecological resilience to the changing fire ecology regime in the face of urban dynamics and climate change. Networked observations, e.g., heterogeneous satellite data and real-time remote sensor data is integrated with computational techniques in signal processing, visualization, modeling and data assimilation to provide a scalable, technological, and educational solution to monitor weather patterns to predict a wildfire's Rate of Spread. Our collaborative WIFIRE team of scientists, engineers, technologists, government policy managers, private industry, and firefighters architects implement CI pathways that enable joint innovation for wildfire management. Scientific workflows are used as an integrative distributed programming model and simplify the implementation of engineering modules for data-driven simulation, prediction and visualization while allowing integration with large-scale computing facilities. WIFIRE will be scalable to users with different skill-levels via specialized web interfaces and user-specified alerts for environmental events broadcasted to receivers before, during and after a wildfire. Scalability of the WIFIRE approach allows many sensors to be subjected to user-specified data processing algorithms to generate threshold alerts within seconds. Integration of this sensor data into both rapidly available fire image data and models will better enable situational awareness, responses and decision support at local, state, national, and international levels. The products of WIFIRE will be initially disseminated to our collaborators (SDG&E, CAL FIRE, USFS), covering academic, private, and government laboratories while generating values to emergency officials, and consequently to the general public. WIFIRE may be used by government agencies in the future to save lives and property during wildfire events, test the effectiveness of response and evacuation scenarios before they occur and assess the effectiveness of high-density sensor networks in improving fire and weather predictions. WIFIRE's high-density network, therefore, will serve as a testbed for future applications worldwide.

Uncertainty estimation of simulated water levels for the Mitch flood event in Tegucigalpa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuentes Andino, Diana Carolina; Halldin, Sven; Keith, Beven; Chong-Yu, Xu

2013-04-01

Hurricane Mitch in 1998 left a devastating flood in Tegucigalpa, the capital city of Honduras. Due to the extremely large magnitude of the Mitch flood, hydrometric measurements were not taken during the event. However, post-event indirect measurements of the discharge were obtained by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and post-event surveyed high water marks were obtained by the Japan International Cooperation agency (JICA). This work proposes a methodology to simulate the water level during the Mitch event when the available data is associated with large uncertainty. The results of the two-dimensional hydrodynamic model LISFLOOD-FP will be evaluated using the Generalized Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework. The main challenge in the proposed methodology is to formulate an approach to evaluate the model results when there are large uncertainties coming from both the model parameters and the evaluation data.

The Connection Between the Longitudinal Extent of SEP Events and the Properties of Coronal Shocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raouafi, N. E.; Lario, D.; Kwon, R. Y.; Riley, P.

2016-12-01

Under the paradigm that the acceleration of solar energetic particles (SEPs) is mainly due to shocks initially driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), the observation of a SEP event (generated by a single solar eruption) from distant heliospheric locations poses the question of whether shocks are at the origin of the wide-longitudinal spread of the SEP events. The combination of remote-sensing observations of the corona in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and white-light (WL) images obtained from multiple vantage points allows us to reconstruct the 3D large-scale structure of the coronal shocks formed around CMEs, and hence estimate the speed of their fronts. On the other hand, coronal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations allow us to estimate the characteristics of the medium where the shocks propagate and expand. The extent of the shocks and their capability to accelerate SEPs depend on the properties of this medium. We analyze, for the well-studied SEP events of 11 Apr 2013 and 25 Feb 2014 observed by the two STEREO spacecraft and near-Earth observers [Lario et al., 2014, 2016], whether (1) the extent of the shocks as seen in EUV and WL images are determined by the pre-event medium background provided by the MHD simulations, and (2) the properties of the associated shocks at different longitudes are consistent with the thesis that the SEPs observed by the different spacecraft are accelerated and injected by the expanding shocks.

The Effect of Model Grid Resolution on the Distributed Hydrologic Simulations for Forecasting Stream Flows and Reservoir Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turnbull, S. J.

2017-12-01

Within the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), reservoirs are typically operated according to a rule curve that specifies target water levels based on the time of year. The rule curve is intended to maximize flood protection by specifying releases of water before the dominant rainfall period for a region. While some operating allowances are permissible, generally the rule curve elevations must be maintained. While this operational approach provides for the required flood control purpose, it may not result in optimal reservoir operations for multi-use impoundments. In the Russian River Valley of California a multi-agency research effort called Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) is assessing the application of forecast weather and streamflow predictions to potentially enhance the operation of reservoirs in the watershed. The focus of the study has been on Lake Mendocino, a USACE project important for flood control, water supply, power generation and ecological flows. As part of this effort the Engineer Research and Development Center is assessing the ability of utilizing the physics based, distributed watershed model Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model to simulate stream flows, reservoir stages, and discharges while being driven by weather forecast products. A key question in this application is the effect of watershed model resolution on forecasted stream flows. To help resolve this question, GSSHA models of multiple grid resolutions, 30, 50, and 270m, were developed for the upper Russian River, which includes Lake Mendocino. The models were derived from common inputs: DEM, soils, land use, stream network, reservoir characteristics, and specified inflows and discharges. All the models were calibrated in both event and continuous simulation mode using measured precipitation gages and then driven with the West-WRF atmospheric model in prediction mode to assess the ability of the model to function in short term, less than one week, forecasting mode. In this presentation we will discuss the effect the grid resolution has model development, parameter assignment, streamflow prediction and forecasting capability utilizing the West-WRF forecast hydro-meteorology.

General Relativistic Simulations of Magnetized Plasmas Around Merging Supermassive Black Holes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Giacomazzo, Bruno; Baker, John G.; Miller, M. Coleman; Reynolds, Christopher S.; van Meter, James R.

2012-01-01

Coalescing supermassive black hole binaries are produced by the mergers of galaxies and are the most powerful sources of gravitational waves accessible to space-based gravitational observatories. Some such mergers may occur in the presence of matter and magnetic fields and hence generate an electromagnetic counterpart. In this paper we present the first general relativistic simulations of magnetized plasma around merging supermassive black holes using the general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic code Whisky. By considering different magnetic field strengths, going from non-magnetically dominated to magnetically dominated regimes, we explore how magnetic fields affect the dynamics of the plasma and the possible emission of electromagnetic signals. In particular we observe, total amplification of the magnetic field of approx 2 orders of magnitude which is driven by the accretion onto the binary and that leads to stronger electromagnetic signals than in the force-free regime where such amplifications are not possible.

Influence of reanalysis datasets on dynamically downscaling the recent past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moalafhi, Ditiro B.; Evans, Jason P.; Sharma, Ashish

2017-08-01

Multiple reanalysis datasets currently exist that can provide boundary conditions for dynamic downscaling and simulating local hydro-climatic processes at finer spatial and temporal resolutions. Previous work has suggested that there are two reanalyses alternatives that provide the best lateral boundary conditions for downscaling over southern Africa. This study dynamically downscales these reanalyses (ERA-I and MERRA) over southern Africa to a high resolution (10 km) grid using the WRF model. Simulations cover the period 1981-2010. Multiple observation datasets were used for both surface temperature and precipitation to account for observational uncertainty when assessing results. Generally, temperature is simulated quite well, except over the Namibian coastal plain where the simulations show anomalous warm temperature related to the failure to propagate the influence of the cold Benguela current inland. Precipitation tends to be overestimated in high altitude areas, and most of southern Mozambique. This could be attributed to challenges in handling complex topography and capturing large-scale circulation patterns. While MERRA driven WRF exhibits slightly less bias in temperature especially for La Nina years, ERA-I driven simulations are on average superior in terms of RMSE. When considering multiple variables and metrics, ERA-I is found to produce the best simulation of the climate over the domain. The influence of the regional model appears to be large enough to overcome the small difference in relative errors present in the lateral boundary conditions derived from these two reanalyses.

Brain-wave measures of workload in advanced cockpits: The transition of technology from laboratory to cockpit simulator, phase 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horst, Richard L.; Mahaffey, David L.; Munson, Robert C.

1989-01-01

The present Phase 2 small business innovation research study was designed to address issues related to scalp-recorded event-related potential (ERP) indices of mental workload and to transition this technology from the laboratory to cockpit simulator environments for use as a systems engineering tool. The project involved five main tasks: (1) Two laboratory studies confirmed the generality of the ERP indices of workload obtained in the Phase 1 study and revealed two additional ERP components related to workload. (2) A task analysis' of flight scenarios and pilot tasks in the Advanced Concepts Flight Simulator (ACFS) defined cockpit events (i.e., displays, messages, alarms) that would be expected to elicit ERPs related to workload. (3) Software was developed to support ERP data analysis. An existing ARD-proprietary package of ERP data analysis routines was upgraded, new graphics routines were developed to enhance interactive data analysis, and routines were developed to compare alternative single-trial analysis techniques using simulated ERP data. (4) Working in conjunction with NASA Langley research scientists and simulator engineers, preparations were made for an ACFS validation study of ERP measures of workload. (5) A design specification was developed for a general purpose, computerized, workload assessment system that can function in simulators such as the ACFS.

The adaptation rate of a quantitative trait in an environmental gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hermsen, R.

2016-12-01

The spatial range of a species habitat is generally determined by the ability of the species to cope with biotic and abiotic variables that vary in space. Therefore, the species range is itself an evolvable property. Indeed, environmental gradients permit a mode of evolution in which range expansion and adaptation go hand in hand. This process can contribute to rapid evolution of drug resistant bacteria and viruses, because drug concentrations in humans and livestock treated with antibiotics are far from uniform. Here, we use a minimal stochastic model of discrete, interacting organisms evolving in continuous space to study how the rate of adaptation of a quantitative trait depends on the steepness of the gradient and various population parameters. We discuss analytical results for the mean-field limit as well as extensive stochastic simulations. These simulations were performed using an exact, event-driven simulation scheme that can deal with continuous time-, density- and coordinate-dependent reaction rates and could be used for a wide variety of stochastic systems. The results reveal two qualitative regimes. If the gradient is shallow, the rate of adaptation is limited by dispersion and increases linearly with the gradient slope. If the gradient is steep, the adaptation rate is limited by mutation. In this regime, the mean-field result is highly misleading: it predicts that the adaptation rate continues to increase with the gradient slope, whereas stochastic simulations show that it in fact decreases with the square root of the slope. This discrepancy underscores the importance of discreteness and stochasticity even at high population densities; mean-field results, including those routinely used in quantitative genetics, should be interpreted with care.

The adaptation rate of a quantitative trait in an environmental gradient.

PubMed

Hermsen, R

2016-11-30

The spatial range of a species habitat is generally determined by the ability of the species to cope with biotic and abiotic variables that vary in space. Therefore, the species range is itself an evolvable property. Indeed, environmental gradients permit a mode of evolution in which range expansion and adaptation go hand in hand. This process can contribute to rapid evolution of drug resistant bacteria and viruses, because drug concentrations in humans and livestock treated with antibiotics are far from uniform. Here, we use a minimal stochastic model of discrete, interacting organisms evolving in continuous space to study how the rate of adaptation of a quantitative trait depends on the steepness of the gradient and various population parameters. We discuss analytical results for the mean-field limit as well as extensive stochastic simulations. These simulations were performed using an exact, event-driven simulation scheme that can deal with continuous time-, density- and coordinate-dependent reaction rates and could be used for a wide variety of stochastic systems. The results reveal two qualitative regimes. If the gradient is shallow, the rate of adaptation is limited by dispersion and increases linearly with the gradient slope. If the gradient is steep, the adaptation rate is limited by mutation. In this regime, the mean-field result is highly misleading: it predicts that the adaptation rate continues to increase with the gradient slope, whereas stochastic simulations show that it in fact decreases with the square root of the slope. This discrepancy underscores the importance of discreteness and stochasticity even at high population densities; mean-field results, including those routinely used in quantitative genetics, should be interpreted with care.

State transitions and feedback mechanisms control hydrology in the constructed catchment ´Chicken Creeḱ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaaf, Wolfgang; Gerwin, Werner; Hinz, Christoph; Zaplata, Markus

2016-04-01

Landscapes and ecosystems are complex systems with many feedback mechanisms acting between the various abiotic and biotic components. The knowledge about these interacting processes is mainly derived from mature ecosystems. The initial development of ecosystem complexity may involve state transitions following catastrophic shifts, disturbances or transgression of thresholds. The Chicken Creek catchment was constructed in 2005 in the mining area of Lusatia/Germany to study processes and feedback mechanisms during ecosystem evolution. The hillslope-shaped 6 ha site has defined boundary conditions and well-documented inner structures. The dominating substrate above the underlying clay layer is Pleistocene sandy material representing mainly the lower C horizon of the former landscape. Since 2005, the unrestricted, unmanaged development of the catchment was intensively monitored. During the ten years since then, we observed characteristic state transitions in catchment functioning driven by feedbacks between original substrate properties, surface structures, soil development and vegetation succession. Whereas surface runoff induced by surface crusting and infiltration dominated catchment hydrology in the first years, the impact of vegetation on hydrological pathways and groundwater levels became more and more evident during the last years. Discharge from the catchment changed from episodic events driven by precipitation and surface runoff to groundwater driven. This general picture is overlain by spatial patterns and single episodic events of external drivers. The scientific value of the Chicken Creek site with known boundary conditions and structure information could help in disentangling general feedback mechanisms between hydrologic, pedogenic, biological and geomorphological processes as well as a in gaining a more integrative view of succession and its drivers during the transition from initial, less complex systems to more mature ecosystems. Long-term time series of data are a key for a better understanding of these processes and the effects on ecosystem resilience and self-organization.

A thermostatted kinetic theory model for event-driven pedestrian dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bianca, Carlo; Mogno, Caterina

2018-06-01

This paper is devoted to the modeling of the pedestrian dynamics by means of the thermostatted kinetic theory. Specifically the microscopic interactions among pedestrians and an external force field are modeled for simulating the evacuation of pedestrians from a metro station. The fundamentals of the stochastic game theory and the thermostatted kinetic theory are coupled for the derivation of a specific mathematical model which depicts the time evolution of the distribution of pedestrians at different exits of a metro station. The perturbation theory is employed in order to establish the stability analysis of the nonequilibrium stationary states in the case of a metro station consisting of two exits. A general sensitivity analysis on the initial conditions, the magnitude of the external force field and the number of exits is presented by means of numerical simulations which, in particular, show how the asymptotic distribution and the convergence time are affected by the presence of an external force field. The results show how, in evacuation conditions, the interaction dynamics among pedestrians can be negligible with respect to the external force. The important role of the thermostat term in allowing the reaching of the nonequilibrium stationary state is stressed out. Research perspectives are underlined at the end of paper, in particular for what concerns the derivation of frameworks that take into account the definition of local external actions and the introduction of the space and velocity dynamics.

A New Gravitational-wave Signature from Standing Accretion Shock Instability in Supernovae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuroda, Takami; Kotake, Kei; Takiwaki, Tomoya

2016-09-01

We present results from fully relativistic three-dimensional core-collapse supernova simulations of a non-rotating 15{M}⊙ star using three different nuclear equations of state (EoSs). From our simulations covering up to ˜350 ms after bounce, we show that the development of the standing accretion shock instability (SASI) differs significantly depending on the stiffness of nuclear EoS. Generally, the SASI activity occurs more vigorously in models with softer EoS. By evaluating the gravitational-wave (GW) emission, we find a new GW signature on top of the previously identified one, in which the typical GW frequency increases with time due to an accumulating accretion to the proto-neutron star (PNS). The newly observed quasi-periodic signal appears in the frequency range from ˜100 to 200 Hz and persists for ˜150 ms before neutrino-driven convection dominates over the SASI. By analyzing the cycle frequency of the SASI sloshing and spiral modes as well as the mass accretion rate to the emission region, we show that the SASI frequency is correlated with the GW frequency. This is because the SASI-induced temporary perturbed mass accretion strikes the PNS surface, leading to the quasi-periodic GW emission. Our results show that the GW signal, which could be a smoking-gun signature of the SASI, is within the detection limits of LIGO, advanced Virgo, and KAGRA for Galactic events.

DATA-CONSTRAINED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS IN A GLOBAL MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMICS MODEL

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, M.; Manchester, W. B.; Van der Holst, B.

We present a first-principles-based coronal mass ejection (CME) model suitable for both scientific and operational purposes by combining a global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) solar wind model with a flux-rope-driven CME model. Realistic CME events are simulated self-consistently with high fidelity and forecasting capability by constraining initial flux rope parameters with observational data from GONG, SOHO /LASCO, and STEREO /COR. We automate this process so that minimum manual intervention is required in specifying the CME initial state. With the newly developed data-driven Eruptive Event Generator using Gibson–Low configuration, we present a method to derive Gibson–Low flux rope parameters through a handful ofmore » observational quantities so that the modeled CMEs can propagate with the desired CME speeds near the Sun. A test result with CMEs launched with different Carrington rotation magnetograms is shown. Our study shows a promising result for using the first-principles-based MHD global model as a forecasting tool, which is capable of predicting the CME direction of propagation, arrival time, and ICME magnetic field at 1 au (see the companion paper by Jin et al. 2016a).« less

Event-driven management algorithm of an Engineering documents circulation system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuzenkov, V.; Zebzeev, A.; Gromakov, E.

2015-04-01

Development methodology of an engineering documents circulation system in the design company is reviewed. Discrete event-driven automatic models using description algorithms of project management is offered. Petri net use for dynamic design of projects is offered.

Phase and vacancy behaviour of hard "slanted" cubes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Damme, R.; van der Meer, B.; van den Broeke, J. J.; Smallenburg, F.; Filion, L.

2017-09-01

We use computer simulations to study the phase behaviour for hard, right rhombic prisms as a function of the angle of their rhombic face (the "slant" angle). More specifically, using a combination of event-driven molecular dynamics simulations, Monte Carlo simulations, and free-energy calculations, we determine and characterize the equilibrium phases formed by these particles for various slant angles and densities. Surprisingly, we find that the equilibrium crystal structure for a large range of slant angles and densities is the simple cubic crystal—despite the fact that the particles do not have cubic symmetry. Moreover, we find that the equilibrium vacancy concentration in this simple cubic phase is extremely high and depends only on the packing fraction and not the particle shape. At higher densities, a rhombic crystal appears as the equilibrium phase. We summarize the phase behaviour of this system by drawing a phase diagram in the slant angle-packing fraction plane.

Circuit design tool. User's manual, revision 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miyake, Keith M.; Smith, Donald E.

1992-01-01

The CAM chip design was produced in a UNIX software environment using a design tool that supports definition of digital electronic modules, composition of these modules into higher level circuits, and event-driven simulation of these circuits. Our design tool provides an interface whose goals include straightforward but flexible primitive module definition and circuit composition, efficient simulation, and a debugging environment that facilitates design verification and alteration. The tool provides a set of primitive modules which can be composed into higher level circuits. Each module is a C-language subroutine that uses a set of interface protocols understood by the design tool. Primitives can be altered simply by recoding their C-code image; in addition new primitives can be added allowing higher level circuits to be described in C-code rather than as a composition of primitive modules--this feature can greatly enhance the speed of simulation.

Integrating LMINET with TAAM and SIMMOD: A Feasibility Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Long, Dou; Stouffer-Coston, Virginia; Kostiuk, Peter; Kula, Richard; Yackovetsky, Robert (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

LMINET is a queuing network air traffic simulation model implemented at 64 large airports and the entire National Airspace System in the United States. TAAM and SIMMOD are two widely used air traffic event-driven simulation models mostly for airports. Based on our proposed Progressive Augmented window approach, TAAM and SIMMOD are integrated with LMINET though flight schedules. In the integration, the flight schedules are modified through the flight delays reported by the other models. The benefit to the local simulation study is to let TAAM or SIMMOD take the modified schedule from LMINET, which takes into account of the air traffic congestion and flight delays at the national network level. We demonstrate the value of the integrated models by the case studies at Chicago O'Hare International Airport and Washington Dulles International Airport. Details of the integration are reported and future work for a full-blown integration is identified.

Brownian escape and force-driven transport through entropic barriers: Particle size effect.

PubMed

Cheng, Kuang-Ling; Sheng, Yu-Jane; Tsao, Heng-Kwong

2008-11-14

Brownian escape from a spherical cavity through small holes and force-driven transport through periodic spherical cavities for finite-size particles have been investigated by Brownian dynamic simulations and scaling analysis. The mean first passage time and force-driven mobility are obtained as a function of particle diameter a, hole radius R(H), cavity radius R(C), and external field strength. In the absence of external field, the escape rate is proportional to the exit effect, (R(H)R(C))(1-a2R(H))(32). In weak fields, Brownian diffusion is still dominant and the migration is controlled by the exit effect. Therefore, smaller particles migrate faster than larger ones. In this limit the relation between Brownian escape and force-driven transport can be established by the generalized Einstein-Smoluchowski relation. As the field strength is strong enough, the mobility becomes field dependent and grows with increasing field strength. As a result, the size selectivity diminishes.

The influence of bed friction variability due to land cover on storm-driven barrier island morphodynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Passeri, Davina L.; Long, Joseph W.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Bilskie, Matthew V.; Hagen, Scott C.

2018-01-01

Variations in bed friction due to land cover type have the potential to influence morphologic change during storm events; the importance of these variations can be studied through numerical simulation and experimentation at locations with sufficient observational data to initialize realistic scenarios, evaluate model accuracy and guide interpretations. Two-dimensional in the horizontal plane (2DH) morphodynamic (XBeach) simulations were conducted to assess morphodynamic sensitivity to spatially varying bed friction at Dauphin Island, AL using hurricanes Ivan (2004) and Katrina (2005) as experimental test cases. For each storm, three bed friction scenarios were simulated: (1) a constant Chezy coefficient across land and water, (2) a constant Chezy coefficient across land and depth-dependent Chezy coefficients across water, and (3) spatially varying Chezy coefficients across land based on land use/land cover (LULC) data and depth-dependent Chezy coefficients across water. Modeled post-storm bed elevations were compared qualitatively and quantitatively with post-storm lidar data. Results showed that implementing spatially varying bed friction influenced the ability of XBeach to accurately simulate morphologic change during both storms. Accounting for frictional effects due to large-scale variations in vegetation and development reduced cross-barrier sediment transport and captured overwash and breaching more accurately. Model output from the spatially varying friction scenarios was used to examine the need for an existing sediment transport limiter, the influence of pre-storm topography and the effects of water level gradients on storm-driven morphodynamics.

Water Hammer Simulations of MMH Propellant - New Capability Demonstration of the Generalized Fluid Flow Simulation Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burkhardt, Z.; Ramachandran, N.; Majumdar, A.

2017-01-01

Fluid Transient analysis is important for the design of spacecraft propulsion system to ensure structural stability of the system in the event of sudden closing or opening of the valve. Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP), a general purpose flow network code developed at NASA/MSFC is capable of simulating pressure surge due to sudden opening or closing of valve when thermodynamic properties of real fluid are available for the entire range of simulation. Specifically GFSSP needs an accurate representation of pressure-density relationship in order to predict pressure surge during a fluid transient. Unfortunately, the available thermodynamic property programs such as REFPROP, GASP or GASPAK does not provide the thermodynamic properties of Monomethylhydrazine (MMH). This paper will illustrate the process used for building a customized table of properties of state variables from available properties and speed of sound that is required by GFSSP for simulation. Good agreement was found between the simulations and measured data. This method can be adopted for modeling flow networks and systems with other fluids whose properties are not known in detail in order to obtain general technical insight. Rigorous code validation of this approach will be done and reported at a future date.

Limits on the Efficiency of Event-Based Algorithms for Monte Carlo Neutron Transport

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Romano, Paul K.; Siegel, Andrew R.

The traditional form of parallelism in Monte Carlo particle transport simulations, wherein each individual particle history is considered a unit of work, does not lend itself well to data-level parallelism. Event-based algorithms, which were originally used for simulations on vector processors, may offer a path toward better utilizing data-level parallelism in modern computer architectures. In this study, a simple model is developed for estimating the efficiency of the event-based particle transport algorithm under two sets of assumptions. Data collected from simulations of four reactor problems using OpenMC was then used in conjunction with the models to calculate the speedup duemore » to vectorization as a function of the size of the particle bank and the vector width. When each event type is assumed to have constant execution time, the achievable speedup is directly related to the particle bank size. We observed that the bank size generally needs to be at least 20 times greater than vector size to achieve vector efficiency greater than 90%. Lastly, when the execution times for events are allowed to vary, the vector speedup is also limited by differences in execution time for events being carried out in a single event-iteration.« less

Limits on the Efficiency of Event-Based Algorithms for Monte Carlo Neutron Transport

DOE PAGES

Romano, Paul K.; Siegel, Andrew R.

2017-07-01

The traditional form of parallelism in Monte Carlo particle transport simulations, wherein each individual particle history is considered a unit of work, does not lend itself well to data-level parallelism. Event-based algorithms, which were originally used for simulations on vector processors, may offer a path toward better utilizing data-level parallelism in modern computer architectures. In this study, a simple model is developed for estimating the efficiency of the event-based particle transport algorithm under two sets of assumptions. Data collected from simulations of four reactor problems using OpenMC was then used in conjunction with the models to calculate the speedup duemore » to vectorization as a function of the size of the particle bank and the vector width. When each event type is assumed to have constant execution time, the achievable speedup is directly related to the particle bank size. We observed that the bank size generally needs to be at least 20 times greater than vector size to achieve vector efficiency greater than 90%. Lastly, when the execution times for events are allowed to vary, the vector speedup is also limited by differences in execution time for events being carried out in a single event-iteration.« less

Notification Event Architecture for Traveler Screening: Predictive Traveler Screening Using Event Driven Business Process Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lynch, John Kenneth

2013-01-01

Using an exploratory model of the 9/11 terrorists, this research investigates the linkages between Event Driven Business Process Management (edBPM) and decision making. Although the literature on the role of technology in efficient and effective decision making is extensive, research has yet to quantify the benefit of using edBPM to aid the…

New variational principles for locating periodic orbits of differential equations.

PubMed

Boghosian, Bruce M; Fazendeiro, Luis M; Lätt, Jonas; Tang, Hui; Coveney, Peter V

2011-06-13

We present new methods for the determination of periodic orbits of general dynamical systems. Iterative algorithms for finding solutions by these methods, for both the exact continuum case, and for approximate discrete representations suitable for numerical implementation, are discussed. Finally, we describe our approach to the computation of unstable periodic orbits of the driven Navier-Stokes equations, simulated using the lattice Boltzmann equation.

Event-Driven X-Ray CCD Detectors for High Energy Astrophysics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ricker, George R.

2004-01-01

A viewgraph presentation describing the Event-Driven X- Ray CCD (EDCCD) detector system for high energy astrophysics is presented. The topics include: 1) EDCCD: Description and Advantages; 2) Summary of Grant Activity Carried Out; and 3) EDCCD Test System.

Feasibility of performing high resolution cloud-resolving simulations of historic extreme events: The San Fruttuoso (Liguria, italy) case of 1915.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parodi, Antonio; Boni, Giorgio; Ferraris, Luca; Gallus, William; Maugeri, Maurizio; Molini, Luca; Siccardi, Franco

2017-04-01

Recent studies show that highly localized and persistent back-building mesoscale convective systems represent one of the most dangerous flash-flood producing storms in the north-western Mediterranean area. Substantial warming of the Mediterranean Sea in recent decades raises concerns over possible increases in frequency or intensity of these types of events as increased atmospheric temperatures generally support increases in water vapor content. Analyses of available historical records do not provide a univocal answer, since these may be likely affected by a lack of detailed observations for older events. In the present study, 20th Century Reanalysis Project initial and boundary condition data in ensemble mode are used to address the feasibility of performing cloud-resolving simulations with 1 km horizontal grid spacing of a historic extreme event that occurred over Liguria (Italy): The San Fruttuoso case of 1915. The proposed approach focuses on the ensemble Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model runs, as they are the ones most likely to best simulate the event. It is found that these WRF runs generally do show wind and precipitation fields that are consistent with the occurrence of highly localized and persistent back-building mesoscale convective systems, although precipitation peak amounts are underestimated. Systematic small north-westward position errors with regard to the heaviest rain and strongest convergence areas imply that the Reanalysis members may not be adequately representing the amount of cool air over the Po Plain outflowing into the Liguria Sea through the Apennines gap. Regarding the role of historical data sources, this study shows that in addition to Reanalysis products, unconventional data, such as historical meteorological bulletins, newspapers and even photographs can be very valuable sources of knowledge in the reconstruction of past extreme events.

Microscopic origin and macroscopic implications of lane formation in mixtures of oppositely driven particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klymko, Katherine; Geissler, Phillip L.; Whitelam, Stephen

2016-08-01

Colloidal particles of two types, driven in opposite directions, can segregate into lanes [Vissers et al., Soft Matter 7, 2352 (2011), 10.1039/c0sm01343a]. This phenomenon can be reproduced by two-dimensional Brownian dynamics simulations of model particles [Dzubiella et al., Phys. Rev. E 65, 021402 (2002), 10.1103/PhysRevE.65.021402]. Here we use computer simulation to assess the generality of lane formation with respect to variation of particle type and dynamical protocol. We find that laning results from rectification of diffusion on the scale of a particle diameter: oppositely driven particles must, in the time taken to encounter each other in the direction of the drive, diffuse in the perpendicular direction by about one particle diameter. This geometric constraint implies that the diffusion constant of a particle, in the presence of those of the opposite type, grows approximately linearly with the Péclet number, a prediction confirmed by our numerics over a range of model parameters. Such environment-dependent diffusion is statistically similar to an effective interparticle attraction; consistent with this observation, we find that oppositely driven nonattractive colloids display features characteristic of the simplest model system possessing both interparticle attractions and persistent motion, the driven Ising lattice gas [Katz, Leibowitz, and Spohn, J. Stat. Phys. 34, 497 (1984), 10.1007/BF01018556]. These features include long-ranged correlations in the disordered regime, a critical regime characterized by a change in slope of the particle current with the Péclet number, and fluctuations that grow with system size. By analogy, we suggest that lane formation in the driven colloid system is a phase transition in the macroscopic limit, but that macroscopic phase separation would not occur in finite time upon starting from disordered initial conditions.

Magnetic Roots and the Driving of Extended Coronal Heating

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Porter, Jason G.; Falconer, D. A.; Moore, Ronald L.; Harvey, Karen L.; Rabin, Douglas M.; Shimizu, T.

1998-01-01

We report results from a continuation of a previous study, in which we found large bright coronal loops within active regions and extending from active regions that have one end rooted near an island of included magnetic polarity that is a site of enhanced coronal heating and microflares. This suggested that magnetic activity such as microflaring results in enhanced heating in both the compact core field around the island and in the large loops extending from it. We might expect that the intensity variations due to enhanced heating in the compact and extended structures would be correlated. However, although some ex- tended loops do respond to the largest events taking place in the core fields near their feet, they do not show a clear response to most smaller individual events nor to the overall envelope of coronal heating activity in the core fields at their feet as determined from longer-term observations. Thus, while it is clear that the extended loops' heating is being driven from their ends at the magnetic islands, much of this heating is apparently by some form of footpoint activity that is not strongly coupled to the heating in the footpoint core fields. One possibility is that the remote heating in the extended loops is driven by reconnection at the magnetic null over the island, and that this reconnection is driven mainly by core-field activity that produces little coronal heating within the core field itself, perhaps in the manner of the numerical simulations by Karpen, Antiochos, and DeVore.

Statistical error in simulations of Poisson processes: Example of diffusion in solids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilsson, Johan O.; Leetmaa, Mikael; Vekilova, Olga Yu.; Simak, Sergei I.; Skorodumova, Natalia V.

2016-08-01

Simulations of diffusion in solids often produce poor statistics of diffusion events. We present an analytical expression for the statistical error in ion conductivity obtained in such simulations. The error expression is not restricted to any computational method in particular, but valid in the context of simulation of Poisson processes in general. This analytical error expression is verified numerically for the case of Gd-doped ceria by running a large number of kinetic Monte Carlo calculations.

Viscous Overstability in Saturn's B-Ring. II. Hydrodynamic Theory and Comparison to Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Jürgen; Salo, Heikki; Spahn, Frank; Petzschmann, Olaf

2001-10-01

We investigate the viscous oscillatory instability (overstability) of an unperturbed dense planetary ring, an instability that might play a role in the formation of radial structure in Saturn's B-ring. We generalize existing hydrodynamic models by including the heat flow equation in the analysis and compare our results to the development of overstable modes in local particle simulations. With the heat flow, in addition to the balance equations for mass and momentum, we take into account the balance law for the energy of the random motion; i.e., we allow for a thermal mode in a stability analysis of the stationary Keplerian flow. We also incorporate the effects of nonlocal transport of momentum and energy on the stability of the ring. In a companion paper (Salo, H., J. Schmidt, and F. Spahn 2001. Icarus, doi:10.1006/icar.2001.6680) we describe the determination of the local and nonlocal parts of the viscosity, the heat conductivity, the pressure, as well as the collisional cooling, together with their dependences on temperature and density, in local event-driven simulations of a planetary ring. The ring's self-gravity is taken into account in these simulations by an enhancement of the frequency of vertical oscillations Ω z>Ω. We use these values as parameters in our hydrodynamic model for the comparison to overstability in simulated rings of meter-sized inelastic particles of large optical depth with Ω z/Ω=3.6. We find that the inclusion of the energy-balance equation has a stabilizing influence on the overstable modes, shifting the stability boundary to higher optical depths, and moderating the growth rates of the instability, as compared to a purely isothermal treatment. The non-isothermal model predicts correctly the growth rates and oscillation frequencies of overstable modes in the simulations, as well as the phase shifts and relative amplitudes of the perturbations in density and radial and tangential velocity.

ETARA PC version 3.3 user's guide: Reliability, availability, maintainability simulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, David J.; Viterna, Larry A.

1991-01-01

A user's manual describing an interactive, menu-driven, personal computer based Monte Carlo reliability, availability, and maintainability simulation program called event time availability reliability (ETARA) is discussed. Given a reliability block diagram representation of a system, ETARA simulates the behavior of the system over a specified period of time using Monte Carlo methods to generate block failure and repair intervals as a function of exponential and/or Weibull distributions. Availability parameters such as equivalent availability, state availability (percentage of time as a particular output state capability), continuous state duration and number of state occurrences can be calculated. Initial spares allotment and spares replenishment on a resupply cycle can be simulated. The number of block failures are tabulated both individually and by block type, as well as total downtime, repair time, and time waiting for spares. Also, maintenance man-hours per year and system reliability, with or without repair, at or above a particular output capability can be calculated over a cumulative period of time or at specific points in time.

A plasma source driven predator-prey like mechanism as a potential cause of spiraling intermittencies in linear plasma devices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reiser, D.; Ohno, N.; Tanaka, H.

2014-03-15

Three-dimensional global drift fluid simulations are carried out to analyze coherent plasma structures appearing in the NAGDIS-II linear device (nagoya divertor plasma Simulator-II). The numerical simulations reproduce several features of the intermittent spiraling structures observed, for instance, statistical properties, rotation frequency, and the frequency of plasma expulsion. The detailed inspection of the three-dimensional plasma dynamics allows to identify the key mechanism behind the formation of these intermittent events. The resistive coupling between electron pressure and parallel electric field in the plasma source region gives rise to a quasilinear predator-prey like dynamics where the axisymmetric mode represents the prey and themore » spiraling structure with low azimuthal mode number represents the predator. This interpretation is confirmed by a reduced one-dimensional quasilinear model derived on the basis of the findings in the full three-dimensional simulations. The dominant dynamics reveals certain similarities to the classical Lotka-Volterra cycle.« less

Simulating care: technology-mediated learning in twenty-first century nursing education.

PubMed

Diener, Elizabeth; Hobbs, Nelda

2012-01-01

The increased reliance on simulation classrooms has proven successful in learning skills. Questions persist concerning the ability of technology-driven robotic devices to form and cultivate caring behaviors, or sufficiently develop interactive nurse-client communication necessary in the context of nursing. This article examines the disconnects created by use of simulation technology in nursing education, raising the question: "Can learning of caring-as-being, be facilitated in simulation classrooms?" We propose that unless time is spent with human beings in the earliest stages of nursing education, transpersonal caring relationships do not have space to develop. Learning, crafting, and maturation of caring behaviors threatens to become a serendipitous event or is no longer perceived as an essential characteristic of nursing. Technology does not negate caring-the isolation it fosters makes transpersonal caring all the more important. We are called to create a new paradigm for nursing education that merges Nightingale's vision with technology's promise. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perkins, Casey J.; Brigantic, Robert T.; Keating, Douglas H.

There is a need to develop and demonstrate technical approaches for verifying potential future agreements to limit and reduce total warhead stockpiles. To facilitate this aim, warhead monitoring systems employ both concepts of operations (CONOPS) and technologies. A systems evaluation approach can be used to assess the relative performance of CONOPS and technologies in their ability to achieve monitoring system objectives which include: 1) confidence that a treaty accountable item (TAI) initialized by the monitoring system is as declared; 2) confidence that there is no undetected diversion from the monitoring system; and 3) confidence that a TAI is dismantled asmore » declared. Although there are many quantitative methods that can be used to assess system performance for the above objectives, this paper focuses on a simulation perspective primarily for the ability to support analysis of the probabilities that are used to define operating characteristics of CONOPS and technologies. This paper describes a discrete event simulation (DES) model, comprised of three major sub-models: including TAI lifecycle flow, monitoring activities, and declaration behavior. The DES model seeks to capture all processes and decision points associated with the progressions of virtual TAIs, with notional characteristics, through the monitoring system from initialization through dismantlement. The simulation updates TAI progression (i.e., whether the generated test objects are accepted and rejected at the appropriate points) all the way through dismantlement. Evaluation of TAI lifecycles primarily serves to assess how the order, frequency, and combination of functions in the CONOPS affect system performance as a whole. It is important, however, to note that discrete event simulation is also capable (at a basic level) of addressing vulnerabilities in the CONOPS and interdependencies between individual functions as well. This approach is beneficial because it does not rely on complex mathematical models, but instead attempts to recreate the real world system as a decision and event driven simulation. Finally, because the simulation addresses warhead confirmation, chain of custody, and warhead dismantlement in a modular fashion, a discrete-event model could be easily adapted to multiple CONOPS for the exploration of a large number of “what if” scenarios.« less

Lifting Events in RDF from Interactions with Annotated Web Pages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stühmer, Roland; Anicic, Darko; Sen, Sinan; Ma, Jun; Schmidt, Kay-Uwe; Stojanovic, Nenad

In this paper we present a method and an implementation for creating and processing semantic events from interaction with Web pages which opens possibilities to build event-driven applications for the (Semantic) Web. Events, simple or complex, are models for things that happen e.g., when a user interacts with a Web page. Events are consumed in some meaningful way e.g., for monitoring reasons or to trigger actions such as responses. In order for receiving parties to understand events e.g., comprehend what has led to an event, we propose a general event schema using RDFS. In this schema we cover the composition of complex events and event-to-event relationships. These events can then be used to route semantic information about an occurrence to different recipients helping in making the Semantic Web active. Additionally, we present an architecture for detecting and composing events in Web clients. For the contents of events we show a way of how they are enriched with semantic information about the context in which they occurred. The paper is presented in conjunction with the use case of Semantic Advertising, which extends traditional clickstream analysis by introducing semantic short-term profiling, enabling discovery of the current interest of a Web user and therefore supporting advertisement providers in responding with more relevant advertisements.

Predictability of the 1997 and 1998 South Asian Summer Monsoons on the Intraseasonal Time Scale Based on 10 AMIP2 Model Runs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Man Li C.; Schubert, Siegfried; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Predictability of the 1997 and 1998 South Asian summer monsoons is examined using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalyses, and 100 two-year simulations with ten different Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST). We focus on the intraseasonal variations of the south Asian summer monsoon associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis shows a clear coupling between SST anomalies and upper level velocity potential anomalies associated with the MJO. We analyze several MJO events that developed during the 1997 and 1998 focusing of the coupling with the SST. The same analysis is carried out for the model simulations. Remarkably, the ensemble mean of the two-year AGCM simulations show a signature of the observed MJO events. The ensemble mean simulated MJO events are approximately in phase with the observed events, although they are weaker, the period of oscillation is somewhat longer, and their onset is delayed by about ten days compared with the observations. Details of the analysis and comparisons among the ten AMIP2 (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) models will be presented in the conference.

Modeling biogeochemical responses of vegetation to ENSO: comparison and analysis on subgrid PFT patches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, M.; Hoffman, F. M.

2016-12-01

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important interannual climate variability and has significant consequences and impacts on the global biosphere. The responses of vegetation to ENSO are highly heterogeneous and generally depend on the biophysical and biochemical characteristics associated with model plant functional types (PFTs). The modeled biogeochemical variables from Earth System Models (ESMs) are generally grid averages consisting of several PFTs within a gridcell, which will lead to difficulties in directly comparing them with site observations and large uncertainties in studying their responses to large scale climate variability. In this study, we conducted a transient ENSO simulation for the previoustwo decades from 1995 to 2020 using the DOE ACME v0.3 model. It has a comprehensive terrestrial biogeochemistry model that is fully coupled with a sophisticated atmospheric model with an advanced spectral element dynamical core. The model was driven by the NOAA optimum interpolation sea surface temperature (SST) for contemporary years and CFS v2 nine-month seasonal predicted and reconstructed SST for future years till to 2020. We saved the key biogeochemical variables in the subgrid PFT patches and compared them with site observations directly. Furthermore, we studied the biogeochemical responses of terrestrial vegetation to two largest ENSO events (1997-1998 and 2015-2016) for different PFTs. Our results show that it is useful and meaningful to compare and analyze model simulations in subgrid patches. The comparison and analysis not only gave us the details of responses of terrestrial ecosystem to global climate variability under changing climate, but also the insightful view on the model performance on the PFT level.

Large-Eddy Simulation of Shallow Cumulus over Land: A Composite Case Based on ARM Long-Term Observations at Its Southern Great Plains Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Yunyan; Klein, Stephen A.; Fan, Jiwen

Based on long-term observations by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program at its Southern Great Plains site, a new composite case of continental shallow cumulus (ShCu) convection is constructed for large-eddy simulations (LES) and single-column models. The case represents a typical daytime nonprecipitating ShCu whose formation and dissipation are driven by the local atmospheric conditions and land surface forcing and are not influenced by synoptic weather events. The case includes early morning initial profiles of temperature and moisture with a residual layer; diurnally varying sensible and latent heat fluxes, which represent a domain average over different land surface types; simplified large-scalemore » horizontal advective tendencies and subsidence; and horizontal winds with prevailing direction and average speed. Observed composite cloud statistics are provided for model evaluation. The observed diurnal cycle is well reproduced by LES; however, the cloud amount, liquid water path, and shortwave radiative effect are generally underestimated. LES are compared between simulations with an all-or-nothing bulk microphysics and a spectral bin microphysics. The latter shows improved agreement with observations in the total cloud cover and the amount of clouds with depths greater than 300 m. When compared with radar retrievals of in-cloud air motion, LES produce comparable downdraft vertical velocities, but a larger updraft area, velocity, and updraft mass flux. Both observations and LES show a significantly larger in-cloud downdraft fraction and downdraft mass flux than marine ShCu.« less

Large-Eddy Simulation of Shallow Cumulus over Land: A Composite Case Based on ARM Long-Term Observations at Its Southern Great Plains Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Yunyan; Klein, Stephen A.; Fan, Jiwen

Based on long-term observations by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program at its Southern Great Plains site, a new composite case of continental shallow cumulus (ShCu) convection is constructed for large-eddy simulations (LES) and single-column models. The case represents a typical daytime non-precipitating ShCu whose formation and dissipation are driven by the local atmospheric conditions and land-surface forcing, and are not influenced by synoptic weather events. The case includes: early-morning initial profiles of temperature and moisture with a residual layer; diurnally-varying sensible and latent heat fluxes which represent a domain average over different land-surface types; simplified large-scale horizontal advective tendencies andmore » subsidence; and horizontal winds with prevailing direction and average speed. Observed composite cloud statistics are provided for model evaluation. The observed diurnal cycle is well-reproduced by LES, however the cloud amount, liquid water path, and shortwave radiative effect are generally underestimated. LES are compared between simulations with an all-or-nothing bulk microphysics and a spectral bin microphysics. The latter shows improved agreement with observations in the total cloud cover and the amount of clouds with depths greater than 300 meters. When compared with radar retrievals of in-cloud air motion, LES produce comparable downdraft vertical velocities, but a larger updraft area, velocity and updraft mass flux. Finally, both observation and LES show a significantly larger in-cloud downdraft fraction and downdraft mass flux than marine ShCu.« less

Large-Eddy Simulation of Shallow Cumulus over Land: A Composite Case Based on ARM Long-Term Observations at Its Southern Great Plains Site

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Yunyan; Klein, Stephen A.; Fan, Jiwen; ...

2017-09-19

Based on long-term observations by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program at its Southern Great Plains site, a new composite case of continental shallow cumulus (ShCu) convection is constructed for large-eddy simulations (LES) and single-column models. The case represents a typical daytime non-precipitating ShCu whose formation and dissipation are driven by the local atmospheric conditions and land-surface forcing, and are not influenced by synoptic weather events. The case includes: early-morning initial profiles of temperature and moisture with a residual layer; diurnally-varying sensible and latent heat fluxes which represent a domain average over different land-surface types; simplified large-scale horizontal advective tendencies andmore » subsidence; and horizontal winds with prevailing direction and average speed. Observed composite cloud statistics are provided for model evaluation. The observed diurnal cycle is well-reproduced by LES, however the cloud amount, liquid water path, and shortwave radiative effect are generally underestimated. LES are compared between simulations with an all-or-nothing bulk microphysics and a spectral bin microphysics. The latter shows improved agreement with observations in the total cloud cover and the amount of clouds with depths greater than 300 meters. When compared with radar retrievals of in-cloud air motion, LES produce comparable downdraft vertical velocities, but a larger updraft area, velocity and updraft mass flux. Finally, both observation and LES show a significantly larger in-cloud downdraft fraction and downdraft mass flux than marine ShCu.« less

Wave inhibition by sea ice enables trans-Atlantic ice rafting of debris during Heinrich Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, T. J. W.; Dell, R.; Eisenman, I.; Keeling, R. F.; Padman, L.; Severinghaus, J. P.

2017-12-01

The thickness of the ice-rafted debris (IRD) layers that signal Heinrich Events declines far more gradually with distance from the iceberg sources than would be expected based on present-day iceberg trajectories. Here we model icebergs as passive Lagrangian tracers driven by ocean currents, winds, and sea surface temperatures. The icebergs are released in a comprehensive climate model simulation of the last glacial maximum (LGM), as well as a simulation of the modern climate. The two simulated climates result in qualitatively similar distributions of iceberg meltwater and hence debris, with the colder temperatures of the LGM having only a relatively small effect on meltwater spread. In both scenarios, meltwater flux falls off rapidly with zonal distance from the source, in contrast with the more uniform spread of IRD in sediment cores. In order to address this discrepancy, we propose a physical mechanism that could have prolonged the lifetime of icebergs during Heinrich events. The mechanism involves a surface layer of cold and fresh meltwater formed from, and retained around, densely packed armadas of icebergs. This leads to wintertime sea ice formation even in relatively low latitudes. The sea ice in turn shields the icebergs from wave erosion, which is the main source of iceberg ablation. We find that allowing sea ice to form around all icebergs during four months each winter causes the model to approximately agree with the distribution of IRD in sediment cores.

Ionospheric response to infrasonic-acoustic waves generated by natural hazard events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zettergren, M. D.; Snively, J. B.

2015-09-01

Recent measurements of GPS-derived total electron content (TEC) reveal acoustic wave periods of ˜1-4 min in the F region ionosphere following natural hazard events, such as earthquakes, severe weather, and volcanoes. Here we simulate the ionospheric responses to infrasonic-acoustic waves, generated by vertical accelerations at the Earth's surface or within the lower atmosphere, using a compressible atmospheric dynamics model to perturb a multifluid ionospheric model. Response dependencies on wave source geometry and spectrum are investigated at middle, low, and equatorial latitudes. Results suggest constraints on wave amplitudes that are consistent with observations and that provide insight on the geographical variability of TEC signatures and their dependence on the geometry of wave velocity field perturbations relative to the ambient geomagnetic field. Asymmetries of responses poleward and equatorward from the wave sources indicate that electron perturbations are enhanced on the equatorward side while field aligned currents are driven principally on the poleward side, due to alignments of acoustic wave velocities parallel and perpendicular to field lines, respectively. Acoustic-wave-driven TEC perturbations are shown to have periods of ˜3-4 min, which are consistent with the fraction of the spectrum that remains following strong dissipation throughout the thermosphere. Furthermore, thermospheric acoustic waves couple with ion sound waves throughout the F region and topside ionosphere, driving plasma disturbances with similar periods and faster phase speeds. The associated magnetic perturbations of the simulated waves are calculated to be observable and may provide new observational insight in addition to that provided by GPS TEC measurements.

Climate change is projected to have severe impacts on the frequency and intensity of peak electricity demand across the United States.

PubMed

Auffhammer, Maximilian; Baylis, Patrick; Hausman, Catherine H

2017-02-21

It has been suggested that climate change impacts on the electric sector will account for the majority of global economic damages by the end of the current century and beyond [Rose S, et al. (2014) Understanding the Social Cost of Carbon: A Technical Assessment ]. The empirical literature has shown significant increases in climate-driven impacts on overall consumption, yet has not focused on the cost implications of the increased intensity and frequency of extreme events driving peak demand, which is the highest load observed in a period. We use comprehensive, high-frequency data at the level of load balancing authorities to parameterize the relationship between average or peak electricity demand and temperature for a major economy. Using statistical models, we analyze multiyear data from 166 load balancing authorities in the United States. We couple the estimated temperature response functions for total daily consumption and daily peak load with 18 downscaled global climate models (GCMs) to simulate climate change-driven impacts on both outcomes. We show moderate and heterogeneous changes in consumption, with an average increase of 2.8% by end of century. The results of our peak load simulations, however, suggest significant increases in the intensity and frequency of peak events throughout the United States, assuming today's technology and electricity market fundamentals. As the electricity grid is built to endure maximum load, our findings have significant implications for the construction of costly peak generating capacity, suggesting additional peak capacity costs of up to 180 billion dollars by the end of the century under business-as-usual.

System on chip module configured for event-driven architecture

DOEpatents

Robbins, Kevin; Brady, Charles E.; Ashlock, Tad A.

2017-10-17

A system on chip (SoC) module is described herein, wherein the SoC modules comprise a processor subsystem and a hardware logic subsystem. The processor subsystem and hardware logic subsystem are in communication with one another, and transmit event messages between one another. The processor subsystem executes software actors, while the hardware logic subsystem includes hardware actors, the software actors and hardware actors conform to an event-driven architecture, such that the software actors receive and generate event messages and the hardware actors receive and generate event messages.

Exploring transmembrane transport through alpha-hemolysin with grid-steered molecular dynamics.

PubMed

Wells, David B; Abramkina, Volha; Aksimentiev, Aleksei

2007-09-28

The transport of biomolecules across cell boundaries is central to cellular function. While structures of many membrane channels are known, the permeation mechanism is known only for a select few. Molecular dynamics (MD) is a computational method that can provide an accurate description of permeation events at the atomic level, which is required for understanding the transport mechanism. However, due to the relatively short time scales accessible to this method, it is of limited utility. Here, we present a method for all-atom simulation of electric field-driven transport of large solutes through membrane channels, which in tens of nanoseconds can provide a realistic account of a permeation event that would require a millisecond simulation using conventional MD. In this method, the average distribution of the electrostatic potential in a membrane channel under a transmembrane bias of interest is determined first from an all-atom MD simulation. This electrostatic potential, defined on a grid, is subsequently applied to a charged solute to steer its permeation through the membrane channel. We apply this method to investigate permeation of DNA strands, DNA hairpins, and alpha-helical peptides through alpha-hemolysin. To test the accuracy of the method, we computed the relative permeation rates of DNA strands having different sequences and global orientations. The results of the G-SMD simulations were found to be in good agreement in experiment.

Energetic Electrons in Dipolarization Events: Spatial Properties and Anisotropy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Birn, J.; Runov, A.; Hesse, M.

2014-01-01

Using the electromagnetic fields of an MHD simulation of magnetotail reconnection, flow bursts, and dipolarization, we further investigate the acceleration of electrons to suprathermal energies. Particular emphasis is on spatial properties and anisotropies as functions of energy and time. The simulation results are compared with Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms observations. The test particle approach successfully reproduces several observed injection features and puts them into a context of spatial maps of the injection region(s): a dominance of perpendicular anisotropies farther down the tail and closer to the equatorial plane, an increasing importance of parallel anisotropy closer to Earth and at higher latitudes, a drop in energy fluxes at energies below approximately 10 keV, coinciding with the plasma density drop, together with increases at higher energy, a triple peak structure of flux increases near 0 deg, 90 deg, and 180 deg, and a tendency of flux increases to extend to higher energy closer to Earth and at lower latitudes. We identified the plasma sheet boundary layers and adjacent lobes as a main source region for both increased and decreased energetic electron fluxes, related to the different effects of adiabatic acceleration at high and low energies. The simulated anisotropies tend to exceed the observed ones, particularly for perpendicular fluxes at high energies. The most plausible reason is that the MHD simulation lacks the effects of anisotropy-driven microinstabilities and waves, which would reduce anisotropies.

Evolutionary Inference across Eukaryotes Identifies Specific Pressures Favoring Mitochondrial Gene Retention.

PubMed

Johnston, Iain G; Williams, Ben P

2016-02-24

Since their endosymbiotic origin, mitochondria have lost most of their genes. Although many selective mechanisms underlying the evolution of mitochondrial genomes have been proposed, a data-driven exploration of these hypotheses is lacking, and a quantitatively supported consensus remains absent. We developed HyperTraPS, a methodology coupling stochastic modeling with Bayesian inference, to identify the ordering of evolutionary events and suggest their causes. Using 2015 complete mitochondrial genomes, we inferred evolutionary trajectories of mtDNA gene loss across the eukaryotic tree of life. We find that proteins comprising the structural cores of the electron transport chain are preferentially encoded within mitochondrial genomes across eukaryotes. A combination of high GC content and high protein hydrophobicity is required to explain patterns of mtDNA gene retention; a model that accounts for these selective pressures can also predict the success of artificial gene transfer experiments in vivo. This work provides a general method for data-driven inference of the ordering of evolutionary and progressive events, here identifying the distinct features shaping mitochondrial genomes of present-day species. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Plate tectonics and biogeographical patterns of the Pseudophoxinus (Pisces: Cypriniformes) species complex of central Anatolia, Turkey.

PubMed

Hrbek, Tomas; Stölting, Kai N; Bardakci, Fevzi; Küçük, Fahrettin; Wildekamp, Rudolf H; Meyer, Axel

2004-07-01

We investigated the phylogenetic relationships of Pseudophoxinus (Cyprinidae: Leuciscinae) species from central Anatolia, Turkey to test the hypothesis of geographic speciation driven by early Pliocene orogenic events. We analyzed 1141 aligned base pairs of the complete cytochrome b mitochondrial gene. Phylogenetic relationships reconstructed by maximum likelihood, Bayesian likelihood, and maximum parsimony methods are identical, and generally well supported. Species and clades are restricted to geologically well-defined units, and are deeply divergent from each other. The basal diversification of central Anatolian Pseudophoxinus is estimated to have occurred approximately 15 million years ago. Our results are in agreement with a previous study of the Anatolian fish genus Aphanius that also shows a diversification pattern driven by the Pliocene orogenic events. The distribution of clades of Aphanius and Pseudophoxinus overlap, and areas of distribution comprise the same geological units. The geological history of Anatolia is likely to have had a major impact on the diversification history of many taxa occupying central Anatolia; many of these taxa are likely to be still unrecognized as distinct. Copyright 2004 Elsevier Inc.

Daily and Nondaily Oral Preexposure Prophylaxis in Men and Transgender Women Who Have Sex With Men: The Human Immunodeficiency Virus Prevention Trials Network 067/ADAPT Study.

PubMed

Grant, Robert M; Mannheimer, Sharon; Hughes, James P; Hirsch-Moverman, Yael; Loquere, Avelino; Chitwarakorn, Anupong; Curlin, Marcel E; Li, Maoji; Amico, K Rivet; Hendrix, Craig W; Anderson, Peter L; Dye, Bonnie J; Marzinke, Mark A; Piwowar-Manning, Estelle; McKinstry, Laura; Elharrar, Vanessa; Stirratt, Michael; Rooney, James F; Eshleman, Susan H; McNicholl, Janet M; van Griensven, Frits; Holtz, Timothy H

2018-05-17

Nondaily dosing of oral preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) may provide equivalent coverage of sex events compared with daily dosing. At-risk men and transgender women who have sex with men were randomly assigned to 1 of 3 dosing regimens: 1 tablet daily, 1 tablet twice weekly with a postsex dose (time-driven), or 1 tablet before and after sex (event-driven), and were followed for coverage of sex events with pre- and postsex dosing measured by weekly self-report, drug concentrations, and electronic drug monitoring. From July 2012 to May 2014, 357 participants were randomized. In Bangkok, the coverage of sex events was 85% for the daily arm compared with 84% for the time-driven arm (P = .79) and 74% for the event-driven arm (P = .02). In Harlem, coverage was 66%, 47% (P = .01), and 52% (P = .01) for these groups. In Bangkok, PrEP medication concentrations in blood were consistent with use of ≥2 tablets per week in >95% of visits when sex was reported in the prior week, while in Harlem, such medication concentrations occurred in 48.5% in the daily arm, 30.9% in the time-driven arm, and 16.7% in the event-driven arm (P < .0001). Creatinine elevations were more common in the daily arm (P = .050), although they were not dose limiting. Daily dosing recommendations increased coverage and protective drug concentrations in the Harlem cohort, while daily and nondaily regimens led to comparably favorable outcomes in Bangkok, where participants had higher levels of education and employment. NCT01327651.

Numerical modeling of the solar wind flow with observational boundary conditions

DOE PAGES

Pogorelov, N. V.; Borovikov, S. N.; Burlaga, L. F.; ...

2012-11-20

In this paper we describe our group efforts to develop a self-consistent, data-driven model of the solar wind (SW) interaction with the local interstellar medium. The motion of plasma in this model is described with the MHD approach, while the transport of neutral atoms is addressed by either kinetic or multi-fluid equations. The model and its implementation in the Multi-Scale Fluid-Kinetic Simulation Suite (MS-FLUKSS) are continuously tested and validated by comparing our results with other models and spacecraft measurements. In particular, it was successfully applied to explain an unusual SW behavior discovered by the Voyager 1 spacecraft, i.e., the developmentmore » of a substantial negative radial velocity component, flow turning in the transverse direction, while the latitudinal velocity component goes to very small values. We explain recent SW velocity measurements at Voyager 1 in the context of our 3-D, MHD modeling. We also present a comparison of different turbulence models in their ability to reproduce the SW temperature profile from Voyager 2 measurements. Lastly, the boundary conditions obtained at 50 solar radii from data-driven numerical simulations are used to model a CME event throughout the heliosphere.« less

Tidally driven pore water exchange within offshore intertidal sandbanks: Part II numerical simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibbes, B.; Robinson, C.; Li, L.; Lockington, D.; Li, H.

2008-12-01

Field measurements presented by [Gibbes, B., Robinson, C., Li, L., Lockington, D.A., Carey, H., 2008. Tidally driven pore water exchange within offshore intertidal sandbanks: Part I Field measurements. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 79, pp. 121-132.] revealed a tidally driven pore water flow system within an offshore intertidal sandbank in Moreton Bay, Australia. The field data suggested that this flow system might be capable of delivering nutrients, and in particular bio-available iron, across the sediment-water interface. Bio-available iron has been implicated as a key nutrient in the growth of the toxic marine cyanobacteria Lyngbya majuscula and therefore this pore water exchange process is of interest at sites where L. majuscula blooms have been observed. In this study two-dimensional numerical simulations were used in conjunction with hydraulic data from field measurements to further investigate the tidally induced pore water flow patterns. Simulation results generally showed good agreement with the field data and revealed a more complex residual pore water flow system in the sandbank than shown by the field data. The flow system, strongly influenced by the geometry of the sandbank, was characterized by two circulation cells which resulted in pore water discharge at the bank edge and also to a permanently ponded area within the sandbank interior. Simulated discharge volumes in these two zones were in the order of 0.813 m 3 and 0.143 m 3 per meter width (along shore) of sandbank per tidal cycle at the bank edge and sandbank interior respectively. Transit times of pore water circulating through these cells were found to range from ≈ 17 days to > 60 years with an average time of 780 days. The results suggest that the tidally driven flow systems might provide a mechanism for transport of bio-available iron across the sediment-water interface. This flow could constitute a previously unrecognized source of bio-available iron for L. majuscula blooms in the Bay.

Advanced software development workstation. Comparison of two object-oriented development methodologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Izygon, Michel E.

1992-01-01

This report is an attempt to clarify some of the concerns raised about the OMT method, specifically that OMT is weaker than the Booch method in a few key areas. This interim report specifically addresses the following issues: (1) is OMT object-oriented or only data-driven?; (2) can OMT be used as a front-end to implementation in C++?; (3) the inheritance concept in OMT is in contradiction with the 'pure and real' inheritance concept found in object-oriented (OO) design; (4) low support for software life-cycle issues, for project and risk management; (5) uselessness of functional modeling for the ROSE project; and (6) problems with event-driven and simulation systems. The conclusion of this report is that both Booch's method and Rumbaugh's method are good OO methods, each with strengths and weaknesses in different areas of the development process.

Novel Hybrid Scheduling Technique for Sensor Nodes with Mixed Criticality Tasks.

PubMed

Micea, Mihai-Victor; Stangaciu, Cristina-Sorina; Stangaciu, Valentin; Curiac, Daniel-Ioan

2017-06-26

Sensor networks become increasingly a key technology for complex control applications. Their potential use in safety- and time-critical domains has raised the need for task scheduling mechanisms specially adapted to sensor node specific requirements, often materialized in predictable jitter-less execution of tasks characterized by different criticality levels. This paper offers an efficient scheduling solution, named Hybrid Hard Real-Time Scheduling (H²RTS), which combines a static, clock driven method with a dynamic, event driven scheduling technique, in order to provide high execution predictability, while keeping a high node Central Processing Unit (CPU) utilization factor. From the detailed, integrated schedulability analysis of the H²RTS, a set of sufficiency tests are introduced and demonstrated based on the processor demand and linear upper bound metrics. The performance and correct behavior of the proposed hybrid scheduling technique have been extensively evaluated and validated both on a simulator and on a sensor mote equipped with ARM7 microcontroller.

Simulating Heinrich events in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice sheet model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Ziemen, Florian

2016-04-01

Heinrich events are among the most prominent events of long-term climate variability recorded in proxies across the northern hemisphere. They are the archetype of ice sheet - climate interactions on millennial time scales. Nevertheless, the exact mechanisms that cause Heinrich events are still under discussion, and their climatic consequences are far from being fully understood. We contribute to answering the open questions by studying Heinrich events in a coupled ice sheet model (ISM) atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM) framework, where this variability occurs as part of the model generated internal variability without the need to prescribe external perturbations, as was the standard approach in almost all model studies so far. The setup consists of a northern hemisphere setup of the modified Parallel Ice Sheet Model (mPISM) coupled to the global coarse resolution AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ. The simulations used for this analysis were an ensemble covering substantial parts of the late Glacial forced with transient insolation and prescribed atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The modeled Heinrich events show a marked influence of the ice discharge on the Atlantic circulation and heat transport, but none of the Heinrich events during the Glacial did show a complete collapse of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The simulated main consequences of the Heinrich events are a freshening and cooling over the North Atlantic and a drying over northern Europe.

The August 1975 Flood over Central China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Long; Smith, James; Liu, Maofeng; Baeck, MaryLynn

2016-04-01

The August 1975 flood in Central China was one of the most destructive floods in history, resulting in 26 000 fatalities, leaving about 10 million people with insufficient shelter, and producing long-lasting famine and disease. Extreme rainfall responsible for this flood event was associated with typhoon Nina during 5-7 August 1975. Despite the prominence of the August 1975 flood, analyses of the storms producing the flood and the resulting flood are sparse. Even fewer attempts were made from the perspective of numerical simulations. We examine details of extreme rainfall for the August 1975 flood based on downscaling simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by 20th Century Reanalysis fields. We further placed key hydrometeorological features for the flood event in a climatological context through the analyses of the 20th Century Reanalysis fields. Results indicate interrelated roles of multiple mesoscale ingredients for deep, moist convection in producing extreme rainfall for the August 1975 flood, superimposed over an anomalous synoptic environment. Attribution analyses on the source of water vapor for this flood event will be conducted based on a Lagrangian parcel tracking algorithm LAGRANTO. Analytical framework developed in this study aims to explore utilization of hydrometeorological approach in flood-control engineering designs by providing details on key elements of flood-producing storms.

Modelling Z→TT processes in ATLAS with T-embedded Z →μμ data

DOE PAGES

Aad, G.

2015-09-15

We describe the concept, technical realisation and validation of a largely data-driven method to model events with Z→ττ decays. In Z→μμ events selected from proton-proton collision data recorded at √s=8 TeV with the ATLAS experiment at the LHC in 2012, the Z decay muons are replaced by τ leptons from simulated Z →ττ decays at the level of reconstructed tracks and calorimeter cells. The τ lepton kinematics are derived from the kinematics of the original muons. Thus, only the well-understood decays of the Z boson and τ leptons as well as the detector response to the τ decay products aremore » obtained from simulation. All other aspects of the event, such as the Z boson and jet kinematics as well as effects from multiple interactions, are given by the actual data. This so-called τ-embedding method is particularly relevant for Higgs boson searches and analyses in ττ final states, where Z→ττ decays constitute a large irreducible background that cannot be obtained directly from data control samples. In this paper, we discuss the relevant concepts based on the implementation used in the ATLAS Standard Model H→ττ analysis of the full datataset recorded during 2011 and 2012.« less

Data-driven Model of the ICME Propagation through the Solar Corona and Inner Heliosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yalim, M. S.; Pogorelov, N.; Singh, T.; Liu, Y.

2017-12-01

The solar wind (SW) emerging from the Sun is the main driving mechanism of solar events which may lead to geomagnetic storms that are the primary causes of space weather disturbances that affect the magnetic environment of Earth and may have hazardous effects on the space-borne and ground-based technological systems as well as human health. Therefore, accurate modeling of the SW is very important to understand the underlying mechanisms of such storms.Getting ready for the Parker Solar Probe mission, we have developed a data-driven magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of the global solar corona which utilizes characteristic boundary conditions implemented within the Multi-Scale Fluid-Kinetic Simulation Suite (MS-FLUKSS) - a collection of problem oriented routines incorporated into the Chombo adaptive mesh refinement framework developed at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Our global solar corona model can be driven by both synoptic and synchronic vector magnetogram data obtained by the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (SDO/HMI) and the horizontal velocity data on the photosphere obtained by applying the Differential Affine Velocity Estimatorfor Vector Magnetograms (DAVE4VM) method on the HMI-observed vector magnetic fields.Our CME generation model is based on Gibson-Low-type flux ropes the parameters of which are determined from analysis of observational data from STEREO/SECCHI, SDO/AIA and SOHO/LASCO, and by applying the Graduate Cylindrical Shell model for the flux rope reconstruction.In this study, we will present the results of three-dimensional global simulations of ICME propagation through our characteristically-consistent MHD model of the background SW from the Sun to Earth driven by HMI-observed vector magnetic fields and validate our results using multiple spacecraft data at 1 AU.

Widespread, Very Heavy Precipitation Events in Contemporary and Scenario Summer Climates from NARCCAP Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawazoe, S.; Gutowski, W. J., Jr.

2015-12-01

We analyze the ability of regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate very heavy daily precipitation and supporting processes for both contemporary and future-scenario simulations during summer (JJA). RCM output comes from North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) simulations, which are all run at a spatial resolution of 50 km. Analysis focuses on the upper Mississippi basin for summer, between 1982-1998 for the contemporary climate, and 2052-2068 during the scenario climate. We also compare simulated precipitation and supporting processes with those obtained from observed precipitation and reanalysis atmospheric states. Precipitation observations are from the University of Washington (UW) and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) gridded dataset. Utilizing two observational datasets helps determine if any uncertainties arise from differences in precipitation gridding schemes. Reanalysis fields come from the North American Regional Reanalysis. The NARCCAP models generally reproduce well the precipitation-vs.-intensity spectrum seen in observations, while producing overly strong precipitation at high intensity thresholds. In the future-scenario climate, there is a decrease in frequency for light to moderate precipitation intensities, while an increase in frequency is seen for the higher intensity events. Further analysis focuses on precipitation events exceeding the 99.5 percentile that occur simultaneously at several points in the region, yielding so-called "widespread events". For widespread events, we analyze local and large scale environmental parameters, such as 2-m temperature and specific humidity, 500-hPa geopotential heights, Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), vertically integrated moisture flux convergence, among others, to compare atmospheric states and processes leading to such events in the models and observations. The results suggest that an analysis of atmospheric states supporting very heavy precipitation events is a more fruitful path for understanding and detecting changes than simply looking at precipitation itself.

Why continuous simulation? The role of antecedent moisture in design flood estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathiraja, S.; Westra, S.; Sharma, A.

2012-06-01

Continuous simulation for design flood estimation is increasingly becoming a viable alternative to traditional event-based methods. The advantage of continuous simulation approaches is that the catchment moisture state prior to the flood-producing rainfall event is implicitly incorporated within the modeling framework, provided the model has been calibrated and validated to produce reasonable simulations. This contrasts with event-based models in which both information about the expected sequence of rainfall and evaporation preceding the flood-producing rainfall event, as well as catchment storage and infiltration properties, are commonly pooled together into a single set of "loss" parameters which require adjustment through the process of calibration. To identify the importance of accounting for antecedent moisture in flood modeling, this paper uses a continuous rainfall-runoff model calibrated to 45 catchments in the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia. Flood peaks derived using the historical daily rainfall record are compared with those derived using resampled daily rainfall, for which the sequencing of wet and dry days preceding the heavy rainfall event is removed. The analysis shows that there is a consistent underestimation of the design flood events when antecedent moisture is not properly simulated, which can be as much as 30% when only 1 or 2 days of antecedent rainfall are considered, compared to 5% when this is extended to 60 days of prior rainfall. These results show that, in general, it is necessary to consider both short-term memory in rainfall associated with synoptic scale dependence, as well as longer-term memory at seasonal or longer time scale variability in order to obtain accurate design flood estimates.

Water Network Tool for Resilience v. 1.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

2015-12-09

WNTR is a python package designed to simulate and analyze resilience of water distribution networks. The software includes: - Pressure driven and demand driven hydraulic simulation - Water quality simulation to track concentration, trace, and water age - Conditional controls to simulate power outages - Models to simulate pipe breaks - A wide range of resilience metrics - Analysis and visualization tools

Multi-dimensional simulations of core-collapse supernova explosions with CHIMERA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messer, O. E. B.; Harris, J. A.; Hix, W. R.; Lentz, E. J.; Bruenn, S. W.; Mezzacappa, A.

2018-04-01

Unraveling the core-collapse supernova (CCSN) mechanism is a problem that remains essentially unsolved despite more than four decades of effort. Spherically symmetric models with otherwise high physical fidelity generally fail to produce explosions, and it is widely accepted that CCSNe are inherently multi-dimensional. Progress in realistic modeling has occurred recently through the availability of petascale platforms and the increasing sophistication of supernova codes. We will discuss our most recent work on understanding neutrino-driven CCSN explosions employing multi-dimensional neutrino-radiation hydrodynamics simulations with the Chimera code. We discuss the inputs and resulting outputs from these simulations, the role of neutrino radiation transport, and the importance of multi-dimensional fluid flows in shaping the explosions. We also highlight the production of 48Ca in long-running Chimera simulations.

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

2012-09-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon cycle range. These high end simulations can be linked to sampling a number of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and to sampling climate sensitivities above 4.5 K. This latter aspect highlights the priority in identifying real world climate sensitivity constraints which, if achieved, would lead to reductions on the uppper bound of projected global mean temperature change. The ensembles of simulations presented here provides a framework to explore relationships between present day observables and future changes while the large spread of future projected changes, highlights the ongoing need for such work.

Experimentally observed evolution between dynamic patterns and intrinsic localized modes in a driven nonlinear electrical cyclic lattice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shige, S.; Miyasaka, K.; Shi, W.; Soga, Y.; Sato, M.; Sievers, A. J.

2018-02-01

Locked intrinsic localized modes (ILMs) and large amplitude lattice spatial modes (LSMs) have been experimentally measured for a driven 1-D nonlinear cyclic electric transmission line, where the nonlinear element is a saturable capacitor. Depending on the number of cells and electrical lattice damping an LSM of fixed shape can be tuned across the modal spectrum. Interestingly, by tuning the driver frequency away from this spectrum the LSM can be continuously converted into ILMs and vice versa. The differences in pattern formation between simulations and experimental findings are due to a low concentration of impurities. Through this novel nonlinear excitation and switching channel in cyclic lattices either energy balanced or unbalanced LSMs and ILMs may occur. Because of the general nature of these dynamical results for nonintegrable lattices applications are to be expected. The ultimate stability of driven aero machinery containing nonlinear periodic structures may be one example.

Simulation and animation of sensor-driven robots.

PubMed

Chen, C; Trivedi, M M; Bidlack, C R

1994-10-01

Most simulation and animation systems utilized in robotics are concerned with simulation of the robot and its environment without simulation of sensors. These systems have difficulty in handling robots that utilize sensory feedback in their operation. In this paper, a new design of an environment for simulation, animation, and visualization of sensor-driven robots is presented. As sensor technology advances, increasing numbers of robots are equipped with various types of sophisticated sensors. The main goal of creating the visualization environment is to aid the automatic robot programming and off-line programming capabilities of sensor-driven robots. The software system will help the users visualize the motion and reaction of the sensor-driven robot under their control program. Therefore, the efficiency of the software development is increased, the reliability of the software and the operation safety of the robot are ensured, and the cost of new software development is reduced. Conventional computer-graphics-based robot simulation and animation software packages lack of capabilities for robot sensing simulation. This paper describes a system designed to overcome this deficiency.

CHARYBDIS: a black hole event generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, Christopher M.; Richardson, Peter; Webber, Bryan R.

2003-08-01

CHARYBDIS is an event generator which simulates the production and decay of miniature black holes at hadronic colliders as might be possible in certain extra dimension models. It interfaces via the Les Houches accord to general purpose Monte Carlo programs like HERWIG and PYTHIA which then perform the parton evolution and hadronization. The event generator includes the extra-dimensional `grey-body' effects as well as the change in the temperature of the black hole as the decay progresses. Various options for modelling the Planck-scale terminal decay are provided.

The potential impact of media reporting in syndromic surveillance: an example using a possible Cryptosporidium exposure in North West England, August to September 2015

PubMed Central

Elliot, Alex J; Hughes, Helen E; Astbury, John; Nixon, Grainne; Brierley, Kate; Vivancos, Roberto; Inns, Thomas; Decraene, Valerie; Platt, Katherine; Lake, Iain; O’Brien, Sarah J; Smith, Gillian E

2016-01-01

During August 2015, a boil water notice (BWN) was issued across parts of North West England following the detection of Cryptosporidium oocysts in the public water supply. Using prospective syndromic surveillance, we detected statistically significant increases in the presentation of cases of gastroenteritis and diarrhoea to general practitioner services and related calls to the national health telephone advice service in those areas affected by the BWN. In the affected areas, average in-hours general practitioner consultations for gastroenteritis increased by 24.8% (from 13.49 to 16.84) during the BWN period; average diarrhoea consultations increased by 28.5% (from 8.33 to 10.71). Local public health investigations revealed no laboratory reported cases confirmed as being associated with the water supply. These findings suggest that the increases reported by syndromic surveillance of cases of gastroenteritis and diarrhoea likely resulted from changes in healthcare seeking behaviour driven by the intense local and national media coverage of the potential health risks during the event. This study has further highlighted the potential for media-driven bias in syndromic surveillance, and the challenges in disentangling true increases in community infection from those driven by media reporting. PMID:27762208

Feedback processing in adolescence: an event-related potential study of age and gender differences.

PubMed

Grose-Fifer, Jillian; Migliaccio, Renee; Zottoli, Tina M

2014-01-01

Adolescence has frequently been characterized as a period of increased risk taking, which may be largely driven by maturational changes in neural areas that process incentives. To investigate age- and gender-related differences in reward processing, we recorded event-related potentials (ERPs) from 80 participants in a gambling game, in which monetary wins and losses were either large or small. We measured two ERP components: the feedback-related negativity (FRN) and the feedback P3 (fP3). The FRN was sensitive to the size of a win in both adult (aged 23-35 years) and adolescent (aged 13-17 years) males, but not in females. Small wins appeared to be less rewarding for males than for females, which may in part explain more approach-driven behavior in males in general. Furthermore, adolescent boys showed both delayed FRNs to high losses and less differentiation in FRN amplitude between wins and losses in comparison to girls. The fP3, which is thought to index the salience of the feedback at a more conscious level than the FRN, was also larger in boys than in girls. Taken together, these results imply that higher levels of risk taking that are commonly reported in adolescent males may be driven both by hypersensitivity to high rewards and insensitivity to punishment or losses. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Data-Driven Correlation Analysis Between Observed 3D Fatigue-Crack Path and Computed Fields from High-Fidelity, Crystal-Plasticity, Finite-Element Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierson, Kyle D.; Hochhalter, Jacob D.; Spear, Ashley D.

2018-05-01

Systematic correlation analysis was performed between simulated micromechanical fields in an uncracked polycrystal and the known path of an eventual fatigue-crack surface based on experimental observation. Concurrent multiscale finite-element simulation of cyclic loading was performed using a high-fidelity representation of grain structure obtained from near-field high-energy x-ray diffraction microscopy measurements. An algorithm was developed to parameterize and systematically correlate the three-dimensional (3D) micromechanical fields from simulation with the 3D fatigue-failure surface from experiment. For comparison, correlation coefficients were also computed between the micromechanical fields and hypothetical, alternative surfaces. The correlation of the fields with hypothetical surfaces was found to be consistently weaker than that with the known crack surface, suggesting that the micromechanical fields of the cyclically loaded, uncracked microstructure might provide some degree of predictiveness for microstructurally small fatigue-crack paths, although the extent of such predictiveness remains to be tested. In general, gradients of the field variables exhibit stronger correlations with crack path than the field variables themselves. Results from the data-driven approach implemented here can be leveraged in future model development for prediction of fatigue-failure surfaces (for example, to facilitate univariate feature selection required by convolution-based models).

No Evidence That Gratitude Enhances Neural Performance Monitoring or Conflict-Driven Control

PubMed Central

Saunders, Blair; He, Frank F. H.; Inzlicht, Michael

2015-01-01

It has recently been suggested that gratitude can benefit self-regulation by reducing impulsivity during economic decision making. We tested if comparable benefits of gratitude are observed for neural performance monitoring and conflict-driven self-control. In a pre-post design, 61 participants were randomly assigned to either a gratitude or happiness condition, and then performed a pre-induction flanker task. Subsequently, participants recalled an autobiographical event where they had felt grateful or happy, followed by a post-induction flanker task. Despite closely following existing protocols, participants in the gratitude condition did not report elevated gratefulness compared to the happy group. In regard to self-control, we found no association between gratitude—operationalized by experimental condition or as a continuous predictor—and any control metric, including flanker interference, post-error adjustments, or neural monitoring (the error-related negativity, ERN). Thus, while gratitude might increase economic patience, such benefits may not generalize to conflict-driven control processes. PMID:26633830

No Evidence That Gratitude Enhances Neural Performance Monitoring or Conflict-Driven Control.

PubMed

Saunders, Blair; He, Frank F H; Inzlicht, Michael

2015-01-01

It has recently been suggested that gratitude can benefit self-regulation by reducing impulsivity during economic decision making. We tested if comparable benefits of gratitude are observed for neural performance monitoring and conflict-driven self-control. In a pre-post design, 61 participants were randomly assigned to either a gratitude or happiness condition, and then performed a pre-induction flanker task. Subsequently, participants recalled an autobiographical event where they had felt grateful or happy, followed by a post-induction flanker task. Despite closely following existing protocols, participants in the gratitude condition did not report elevated gratefulness compared to the happy group. In regard to self-control, we found no association between gratitude--operationalized by experimental condition or as a continuous predictor--and any control metric, including flanker interference, post-error adjustments, or neural monitoring (the error-related negativity, ERN). Thus, while gratitude might increase economic patience, such benefits may not generalize to conflict-driven control processes.

Sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice to the Southern Annular Mode in coupled climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holland, Marika M.; Landrum, Laura; Kostov, Yavor; Marshall, John

2017-09-01

We assess the sea ice response to Southern Annular Mode (SAM) anomalies for pre-industrial control simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Consistent with work by Ferreira et al. (J Clim 28:1206-1226, 2015. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00313.1), the models generally simulate a two-timescale response to positive SAM anomalies, with an initial increase in ice followed by an eventual sea ice decline. However, the models differ in the cross-over time at which the change in ice response occurs, in the overall magnitude of the response, and in the spatial distribution of the response. Late twentieth century Antarctic sea ice trends in CMIP5 simulations are related in part to different modeled responses to SAM variability acting on different time-varying transient SAM conditions. This explains a significant fraction of the spread in simulated late twentieth century southern hemisphere sea ice extent trends across the model simulations. Applying the modeled sea ice response to SAM variability but driven by the observed record of SAM suggests that variations in the austral summer SAM, which has exhibited a significant positive trend, have driven a modest sea ice decrease. However, additional work is needed to narrow the considerable model uncertainty in the climate response to SAM variability and its implications for 20th-21st century trends.

Modelling soil erosion in rainfed vineyards of northeast of Spain under climate change: effects of increasing rainfall intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Concepción Ramos, Maria

2017-04-01

This aim of the research was to analyse the effect of rainfall distribution and intensity on soil erosion in vines cultivated in the Mediterranean under the projected climate change scenario. The simulations were done at plot scale using the WEPP model. Climatic data for the period 1996-2014 were obtained from a meteorological station located 6km far from the plot. Soil characteristics such as texture, organic matter content, water retention capacity and infiltration were analysed. Runoff and soil losses were measured at four locations within the plot during 4 years and used to calibrate and validate the model. According to evidences recorded in the area, changes of rainfall intensities of 10 and 20% were considered for different rainfall distributions. The simulations were extended to the predicted changes for 2030, 2050 and 2070 based on the HadGEM2-CC under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 scenario. WEPP model provided a suitable prediction of the seasonal runoff and erosion as simulated relatively well the runoff and erosion of the most important events although some deficiencies were found for those events that produced low runoff. The simulation confirmed the contribution of the extreme events to annual erosion rates in 70%, on average. The model responded to changes in precipitation predicted under a climate change scenario with a decrease of runoff and erosion, and with higher erosion rates for an increase in rainfall intensity. A 10% increase may imply erosion rates up to 22% greater for the scenario 2030, and despite the predicted decrease in precipitation for the scenario 2050, soil losses may be up to 40% greater than at present for some rainfall distributions and intensity rainfall increases of 20%. These findings show the need of considering rainfall intensity as one of the main driven factors when soil erosion rates under climate change are predicted. Keywords: extreme events, rainfall distribution, runoff, soil losses, wines, WEPP.

A generalized two-fluid picture of non-driven collisionless reconnection and its relation to whistler waves

DOE PAGES

None, None

2017-05-05

A generalized, intuitive two-fluid picture of 2D non-driven collisionless magnetic reconnection is described using results from a full-3D numerical simulation. The relevant two-fluid equations simplify to the condition that the flux associated with canonical circulation Q=m e∇×u e+q eB is perfectly frozen into the electron fluid. In the reconnection geometry, flux tubes defined by Q are convected with the central electron current, effectively stretching the tubes and increasing the magnitude of Q exponentially. This, coupled with the fact that Q is a sum of two quantities, explains how the magnetic fields in the reconnection region reconnect and give rise tomore » strong electron acceleration. The Q motion provides an interpretation for other phenomena as well, such as spiked central electron current filaments. The simulated reconnection rate was found to agree with a previous analytical calculation having the same geometry. Energy analysis shows that the magnetic energy is converted and propagated mainly in the form of the Poynting flux, and helicity analysis shows that the canonical helicity ∫P·Q dV as a whole must be considered when analyzing reconnection. A mechanism for whistler wave generation and propagation is also described, with comparisons to recent spacecraft observations.« less

Multiple mechanisms of Amazonian forest biomass losses in three dynamic global vegetation models under climate change.

PubMed

Galbraith, David; Levy, Peter E; Sitch, Stephen; Huntingford, Chris; Cox, Peter; Williams, Mathew; Meir, Patrick

2010-08-01

*The large-scale loss of Amazonian rainforest under some future climate scenarios has generally been considered to be driven by increased drying over Amazonia predicted by some general circulation models (GCMs). However, the importance of rainfall relative to other drivers has never been formally examined. *Here, we conducted factorial simulations to ascertain the contributions of four environmental drivers (precipitation, temperature, humidity and CO(2)) to simulated changes in Amazonian vegetation carbon (C(veg)), in three dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) forced with climate data based on HadCM3 for four SRES scenarios. *Increased temperature was found to be more important than precipitation reduction in causing losses of Amazonian C(veg) in two DGVMs (Hyland and TRIFFID), and as important as precipitation reduction in a third DGVM (LPJ). Increases in plant respiration, direct declines in photosynthesis and increases in vapour pressure deficit (VPD) all contributed to reduce C(veg) under high temperature, but the contribution of each mechanism varied greatly across models. Rising CO(2) mitigated much of the climate-driven biomass losses in the models. *Additional work is required to constrain model behaviour with experimental data under conditions of high temperature and drought. Current models may be overly sensitive to long-term elevated temperatures as they do not account for physiological acclimation.

Unexpected extreme events drive the inter-annual variabilty in carbon exchange at the Pine forest in Netherlands.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sethi, Sanjna; Moors, Eddy; Jamir, Chubamenla

2017-04-01

The carbon exchange between vegetation and the atmosphere tends to vary on an annual basis. This change is a continuous process its trend emerging over a period of years can be analysed. In any such trend over a prolonged period, some years stand out more than the others on account of extreme events. Explaining deviations from the expected average emissions may help to understand the drivers behind these interannual deviations. Such noticeable deviations in trend maybe on account of extreme events and need to be analysed in overall context of the ecosystem. This research's focus is to identify the main drivers responsible for the deviations, and how extreme events impact the variability over a prolonged period of time. The hypothesis being that extreme events are driving these deviations. Carbon flux data done for multiple years (1997-2015) for a site at the Loobos Pine Forest is used and compared with an ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) to understand if the deviation of measured data from the simulated data is on account of extreme events on a monthly and daily basis. A Principal Component Analysis is performed on the identified deviations between measured and simulated carbon exchange to pin point the main cause behind their occurrence.​

High resolution simulations of orographic flow over a complex terrain on the Southeast coast of Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, S. C.; Zolino, M. M.; Gomes, J. L.; Bustamante, J. F.; Lima-e-Silva, P. P.

2012-04-01

The Eta Model is used operationally by CPTEC to produce weather forecasts over South America since 1997. The model has gone through upgrades. In order to prepare the model for operational higher resolution forecasts, the model is configured and tested over a region of complex topography located near the coast of Southeast Brazil. The Eta Model was configured, with 2-km horizontal resolution and 50 layers. The Eta-2km is a second nesting, it is driven by Eta-15km, which in its turn is driven by Era-Interim reanalyses. The model domain includes the two Brazilians cities, Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, urban areas, preserved tropical forest, pasture fields, and complex terrain and coastline. Mountains can rise up to about 700m. The region suffers frequent events of floods and landslides. The objective of this work is to evaluate high resolution simulations of wind and temperature in this complex area. Verification of model runs uses observations taken from the nuclear power plant. Accurate near-surface wind direction and magnitude are needed for the plant emergency plan and winds are highly sensitive to model spatial resolution and atmospheric stability. Verification of two cases during summer shows that model has clear diurnal cycle signal for wind in that region. The area is characterized by weak winds which makes the simulation more difficult. The simulated wind magnitude is about 1.5m/s, which is close to observations of about 2m/s; however, the observed change of wind direction of the sea breeze is fast whereas it is slow in the simulations. Nighttime katabatic flow is captured by the simulations. Comparison against Eta-5km runs show that the valley circulation is better described in the 2-km resolution run. Simulated temperatures follow closely the observed diurnal cycle. Experiments improving some surface conditions such as the surface temperature and land cover show simulation error reduction and improved diurnal cycle.

The Progenitor Dependence of Core-collapse Supernovae from Three-dimensional Simulations with Progenitor Models of 12–40 M ⊙

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ott, Christian D.; Roberts, Luke F.; da Silva Schneider, André; Fedrow, Joseph M.; Haas, Roland; Schnetter, Erik

2018-03-01

We present a first study of the progenitor star dependence of the three-dimensional (3D) neutrino mechanism of core-collapse supernovae. We employ full 3D general-relativistic multi-group neutrino radiation-hydrodynamics and simulate the postbounce evolutions of progenitors with zero-age main sequence masses of 12, 15, 20, 27, and 40 M ⊙. All progenitors, with the exception of the 12 M ⊙ star, experience shock runaway by the end of their simulations. In most cases, a strongly asymmetric explosion will result. We find three qualitatively distinct evolutions that suggest a complex dependence of explosion dynamics on progenitor density structure, neutrino heating, and 3D flow. (1) Progenitors with massive cores, shallow density profiles, and high post-core-bounce accretion rates experience very strong neutrino heating and neutrino-driven turbulent convection, leading to early shock runaway. Accretion continues at a high rate, likely leading to black hole formation. (2) Intermediate progenitors experience neutrino-driven, turbulence-aided explosions triggered by the arrival of density discontinuities at the shock. These occur typically at the silicon/silicon–oxygen shell boundary. (3) Progenitors with small cores and density profiles without strong discontinuities experience shock recession and develop the 3D standing-accretion shock instability (SASI). Shock runaway ensues late, once declining accretion rate, SASI, and neutrino-driven convection create favorable conditions. These differences in explosion times and dynamics result in a non-monotonic relationship between progenitor and compact remnant mass.

Flow-driven rotor simulation of vertical axis tidal turbines: A comparison of helical and straight blades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, Tuyen Quang; Lee, Kwang-Soo; Park, Jin-Soon; Ko, Jin Hwan

2014-06-01

In this study, flow-driven rotor simulations with a given load are conducted to analyze the operational characteristics of a vertical-axis Darrieus turbine, specifically its self-starting capability and fluctuations in its torque as well as the RPM. These characteristics are typically observed in experiments, though they cannot be acquired in simulations with a given tip speed ratio (TSR). First, it is shown that a flow-driven rotor simulation with a two-dimensional (2D) turbine model obtains power coefficients with curves similar to those obtained in a simulation with a given TSR. 3D flowdriven rotor simulations with an optimal geometry then show that a helical-bladed turbine has the following prominent advantages over a straight-bladed turbine of the same size: an improvement of its self-starting capabilities and reduced fluctuations in its torque and RPM curves as well as an increase in its power coefficient from 33% to 42%. Therefore, it is clear that a flow-driven rotor simulation provides more information for the design of a Darrieus turbine than a simulation with a given TSR before experiments.

Real-time spatio-temporal coherence estimation for autonomous mode identification and invariance tracking

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Park, Han G. (Inventor); Zak, Michail (Inventor); James, Mark L. (Inventor); Mackey, Ryan M. E. (Inventor)

2003-01-01

A general method of anomaly detection from time-correlated sensor data is disclosed. Multiple time-correlated signals are received. Their cross-signal behavior is compared against a fixed library of invariants. The library is constructed during a training process, which is itself data-driven using the same time-correlated signals. The method is applicable to a broad class of problems and is designed to respond to any departure from normal operation, including faults or events that lie outside the training envelope.

Model of mobile agents for sexual interactions networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, M. C.; Lind, P. G.; Herrmann, H. J.

2006-02-01

We present a novel model to simulate real social networks of complex interactions, based in a system of colliding particles (agents). The network is build by keeping track of the collisions and evolves in time with correlations which emerge due to the mobility of the agents. Therefore, statistical features are a consequence only of local collisions among its individual agents. Agent dynamics is realized by an event-driven algorithm of collisions where energy is gained as opposed to physical systems which have dissipation. The model reproduces empirical data from networks of sexual interactions, not previously obtained with other approaches.

NORDA’s Pattern Analysis Laboratory: Current Contributions to Naval Mapping, Charting, and Geodesy

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-04-01

magnetic observatories (McLeod, 1988). Using system integrates a suite of sensors and control devices the PAL’s VAX 11/780, spherical harmonic models to...DJAO:[FPS]*.OLB 5. Miscellaneous Utilities CALENDAR (NORDA events) 780 $ CALENDAR (menu-driven) DIALER modem controller 780 $ R AUTO DIAL:DIALER DTC...Utilities CALENDAR (NORDA events) 780 CALENDAR (menu-driven) DIALER modem controller 780 $ R AUTO DIAL:DIALER DTC Desk Top Calendar 780 $ DTC (menu-driven

Three-Dimensional General-Relativistic Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations of Remnant Accretion Disks from Neutron Star Mergers: Outflows and r -Process Nucleosynthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siegel, Daniel M.; Metzger, Brian D.

2017-12-01

The merger of binary neutron stars, or of a neutron star and a stellar-mass black hole, can result in the formation of a massive rotating torus around a spinning black hole. In addition to providing collimating media for γ -ray burst jets, unbound outflows from these disks are an important source of mass ejection and rapid neutron capture (r -process) nucleosynthesis. We present the first three-dimensional general-relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations of neutrino-cooled accretion disks in neutron star mergers, including a realistic equation of state valid at low densities and temperatures, self-consistent evolution of the electron fraction, and neutrino cooling through an approximate leakage scheme. After initial magnetic field amplification by magnetic winding, we witness the vigorous onset of turbulence driven by the magnetorotational instability (MRI). The disk quickly reaches a balance between heating from MRI-driven turbulence and neutrino cooling, which regulates the midplane electron fraction to a low equilibrium value Ye≈0.1 . Over the 380-ms duration of the simulation, we find that a fraction ≈20 % of the initial torus mass is unbound in powerful outflows with asymptotic velocities v ≈0.1 c and electron fractions Ye≈0.1 - 0.25 . Postprocessing the outflows through a nuclear reaction network shows the production of a robust second- and third-peak r process. Though broadly consistent with the results of previous axisymmetric hydrodynamical simulations, extrapolation of our results to late times suggests that the total ejecta mass from GRMHD disks is significantly higher. Our results provide strong evidence that postmerger disk outflows are an important site for the r process.

Three-Dimensional General-Relativistic Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations of Remnant Accretion Disks from Neutron Star Mergers: Outflows and r-Process Nucleosynthesis.

PubMed

Siegel, Daniel M; Metzger, Brian D

2017-12-08

The merger of binary neutron stars, or of a neutron star and a stellar-mass black hole, can result in the formation of a massive rotating torus around a spinning black hole. In addition to providing collimating media for γ-ray burst jets, unbound outflows from these disks are an important source of mass ejection and rapid neutron capture (r-process) nucleosynthesis. We present the first three-dimensional general-relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations of neutrino-cooled accretion disks in neutron star mergers, including a realistic equation of state valid at low densities and temperatures, self-consistent evolution of the electron fraction, and neutrino cooling through an approximate leakage scheme. After initial magnetic field amplification by magnetic winding, we witness the vigorous onset of turbulence driven by the magnetorotational instability (MRI). The disk quickly reaches a balance between heating from MRI-driven turbulence and neutrino cooling, which regulates the midplane electron fraction to a low equilibrium value Y_{e}≈0.1. Over the 380-ms duration of the simulation, we find that a fraction ≈20% of the initial torus mass is unbound in powerful outflows with asymptotic velocities v≈0.1c and electron fractions Y_{e}≈0.1-0.25. Postprocessing the outflows through a nuclear reaction network shows the production of a robust second- and third-peak r process. Though broadly consistent with the results of previous axisymmetric hydrodynamical simulations, extrapolation of our results to late times suggests that the total ejecta mass from GRMHD disks is significantly higher. Our results provide strong evidence that postmerger disk outflows are an important site for the r process.

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

2013-04-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon cycle range. These high-end simulations can be linked to sampling a number of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and to sampling climate sensitivities above 4.5 K. This latter aspect highlights the priority in identifying real-world climate-sensitivity constraints which, if achieved, would lead to reductions on the upper bound of projected global mean temperature change. The ensembles of simulations presented here provides a framework to explore relationships between present-day observables and future changes, while the large spread of future-projected changes highlights the ongoing need for such work.

A comparison of moment-based methods of estimation for the log Pearson type 3 distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutrouvelis, I. A.; Canavos, G. C.

2000-06-01

The log Pearson type 3 distribution is a very important model in statistical hydrology, especially for modeling annual flood series. In this paper we compare the various methods based on moments for estimating quantiles of this distribution. Besides the methods of direct and mixed moments which were found most successful in previous studies and the well-known indirect method of moments, we develop generalized direct moments and generalized mixed moments methods and a new method of adaptive mixed moments. The last method chooses the orders of two moments for the original observations by utilizing information contained in the sample itself. The results of Monte Carlo experiments demonstrated the superiority of this method in estimating flood events of high return periods when a large sample is available and in estimating flood events of low return periods regardless of the sample size. In addition, a comparison of simulation and asymptotic results shows that the adaptive method may be used for the construction of meaningful confidence intervals for design events based on the asymptotic theory even with small samples. The simulation results also point to the specific members of the class of generalized moments estimates which maintain small values for bias and/or mean square error.

Supervised dictionary learning for inferring concurrent brain networks.

PubMed

Zhao, Shijie; Han, Junwei; Lv, Jinglei; Jiang, Xi; Hu, Xintao; Zhao, Yu; Ge, Bao; Guo, Lei; Liu, Tianming

2015-10-01

Task-based fMRI (tfMRI) has been widely used to explore functional brain networks via predefined stimulus paradigm in the fMRI scan. Traditionally, the general linear model (GLM) has been a dominant approach to detect task-evoked networks. However, GLM focuses on task-evoked or event-evoked brain responses and possibly ignores the intrinsic brain functions. In comparison, dictionary learning and sparse coding methods have attracted much attention recently, and these methods have shown the promise of automatically and systematically decomposing fMRI signals into meaningful task-evoked and intrinsic concurrent networks. Nevertheless, two notable limitations of current data-driven dictionary learning method are that the prior knowledge of task paradigm is not sufficiently utilized and that the establishment of correspondences among dictionary atoms in different brains have been challenging. In this paper, we propose a novel supervised dictionary learning and sparse coding method for inferring functional networks from tfMRI data, which takes both of the advantages of model-driven method and data-driven method. The basic idea is to fix the task stimulus curves as predefined model-driven dictionary atoms and only optimize the other portion of data-driven dictionary atoms. Application of this novel methodology on the publicly available human connectome project (HCP) tfMRI datasets has achieved promising results.

Water Hammer Simulations of Monomethylhydrazine Propellant

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burkhardt, Zachary; Ramachandran, N.; Majumdar, A.

2017-01-01

Fluid Transient analysis is important for the design of spacecraft propulsion system to ensure structural stability of the system in the event of sudden closing or opening of the valve. Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP), a general purpose flow network code developed at NASA/MSFC is capable of simulating pressure surge due to sudden opening or closing of valve when thermodynamic properties of real fluid are available for the entire range of simulation. Specifically GFSSP needs an accurate representation of pressure density relationship in order to predict pressure surge during a fluid transient. Unfortunately, the available thermodynamic property programs such as REFPROP, GASP or GASPAK do not provide the thermodynamic properties of Monomethylhydrazine(MMH). This work illustrates the process used for building a customized table of properties of state variables from available properties and speed of sound that is required by GFSSP for simulation. Good agreement was found between the simulations and measured data. This method can be adopted for modeling flow networks and systems with other fluids whose properties are not known in detail in order to obtain general technical insight.

Thermally activated creep and fluidization in flowing disordered materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merabia, Samy; Detcheverry, François

2016-11-01

When submitted to a constant mechanical load, many materials display power law creep followed by fluidization. A fundamental understanding of these processes is still far from being achieved. Here, we characterize creep and fluidization on the basis of a mesoscopic viscoplastic model that includes thermally activated yielding events and a broad distribution of energy barriers, which may be lowered under the effect of a local deformation. We relate the creep exponent observed before fluidization to the width of barrier distribution and to the specific form of stress redistribution following yielding events. We show that Andrade creep is accompanied by local strain hardening driven by stress redistribution and find that the fluidization time depends exponentially on the applied stress. The simulation results are interpreted in the light of a mean-field analysis, and should help in rationalizing the creep phenomenology in disordered materials.

Crisis checklists for in-hospital emergencies: expert consensus, simulation testing and recommendations for a template determined by a multi-institutional and multi-disciplinary learning collaborative.

PubMed

Subbe, Christian P; Kellett, John; Barach, Paul; Chaloner, Catriona; Cleaver, Hayley; Cooksley, Tim; Korsten, Erik; Croke, Eilish; Davis, Elinor; De Bie, Ashley Jr; Durham, Lesley; Hancock, Chris; Hartin, Jilian; Savijn, Tracy; Welch, John

2017-05-08

'Failure to rescue' of hospitalized patients with deteriorating physiology on general wards is caused by a complex array of organisational, technical and cultural failures including a lack of standardized team and individual expected responses and actions. The aim of this study using a learning collaborative method was to develop consensus recomendations on the utility and effectiveness of checklists as training and operational tools to assist in improving the skills of general ward staff on the effective rescue of patients with abnormal physiology. A scoping study of the literature was followed by a multi-institutional and multi-disciplinary international learning collaborative. We sought to achieve a consensus on procedures and clinical simulation technology to determine the requirements, develop and test a safe using a checklist template that is rapidly accessible to assist in emergency management of common events for general ward use. Safety considerations about deteriorating patients were agreed upon and summarized. A consensus was achieved among an international group of experts on currently available checklist formats performing poorly in simulation testing as first responders in general ward clinical crises. The Crisis Checklist Collaborative ratified a consensus template for a general ward checklist that provides a list of issues for first responders to address (i.e. 'Check In'), a list of prompts regarding common omissions (i.e. 'Stop & Think'), and, a list of items required for the safe "handover" of patients that remain on the general ward (i.e. 'Check Out'). Simulation usability assessment of the template demonstrated feasibility for clinical management of deteriorating patients. Emergency checklists custom-designed for general ward patients have the potential to guide the treatment speed and reliability of responses for emergency management of patients with abnormal physiology while minimizing the risk of adverse events. Interventional trials are needed.

Future Drought Projections over the Iberian Peninsula using Drought Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Valdecasas Ojeda, M.; Yeste Donaire, P.; Góngora García, T. M.; Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.; Castro-Diez, Y.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.

2017-12-01

Currently, drought events are the cause of numerous annual economic losses. In a context of climate change, it is expected an increase in the severity and the frequency of drought occurrences, especially in areas such as the Mediterranean region. This study makes use of two drought indices in order to analyze the potential changes on future drought events and their effects at different time scales over a vulnerable region, the Iberian Peninsula. The indices selected were the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which takes into account the global warming through the temperature, and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), based solely on precipitation data, at a spatial resolution of 0.088º ( 10 km). For their computation, current (1980-2014) and future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) high resolution simulations were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over a domain centered in the Iberian Peninsula, and nested in the 0.44 EUROCORDEX region. WRF simulations were driven by two different global bias-corrected climate models: the version 1 of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1) and the Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR), and under two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Future projections were analyzed regarding to changes in mean, median and variance of drought indices with respect to the historical distribution, as well as changes in the frequency and duration of moderate and severe drought events. In general, results suggest an increase in frequency and severity of drought, especially for 2071-2100 period in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Results also shown an increase of drought phenomena more evident using the SPEI. Conclusions from this study could provide a valuable contribution to the understanding of how the increase of the temperature would affect the drought variability in the Mediterranean regions which is necessary for a suitable decision making.Keywords: Drought, SPEI, SPI, Climatic change, Regional projections, WRF.ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER). This analysis was carried out in the ALHAMBRA computer infrastructure at the University of Granada.

Predictive Capability of the Compressible MRG Equation for an Explosively Driven Particle with Validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garno, Joshua; Ouellet, Frederick; Koneru, Rahul; Balachandar, Sivaramakrishnan; Rollin, Bertrand

2017-11-01

An analytic model to describe the hydrodynamic forces on an explosively driven particle is not currently available. The Maxey-Riley-Gatignol (MRG) particle force equation generalized for compressible flows is well-studied in shock-tube applications, and captures the evolution of particle force extracted from controlled shock-tube experiments. In these experiments only the shock-particle interaction was examined, and the effects of the contact line were not investigated. In the present work, the predictive capability of this model is considered for the case where a particle is explosively ejected from a rigid barrel into ambient air. Particle trajectory information extracted from simulations is compared with experimental data. This configuration ensures that both the shock and contact produced by the detonation will influence the motion of the particle. The simulations are carried out using a finite volume, Euler-Lagrange code using the JWL equation of state to handle the explosive products. This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration, Advanced Simulation and Computing Program, as a Cooperative Agreement under the Predictive Science Academic Alliance Program,under Contract No. DE-NA0002378.

Effect of Schmidt number on mass transfer across a sheared gas-liquid interface in a wind-driven turbulence.

PubMed

Takagaki, Naohisa; Kurose, Ryoichi; Kimura, Atsushi; Komori, Satoru

2016-11-14

The mass transfer across a sheared gas-liquid interface strongly depends on the Schmidt number. Here we investigate the relationship between mass transfer coefficient on the liquid side, k L , and Schmidt number, Sc, in the wide range of 0.7 ≤ Sc ≤ 1000. We apply a three-dimensional semi direct numerical simulation (SEMI-DNS), in which the mass transfer is solved based on an approximated deconvolution model (ADM) scheme, to wind-driven turbulence with mass transfer across a sheared wind-driven wavy gas-liquid interface. In order to capture the deforming gas-liquid interface, an arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) method is employed. Our results show that similar to the case for flat gas-liquid interfaces, k L for the wind-driven wavy gas-liquid interface is generally proportional to Sc -0.5 , and can be roughly estimated by the surface divergence model. This trend is endorsed by the fact that the mass transfer across the gas-liquid interface is controlled mainly by streamwise vortices on the liquid side even for the wind-driven turbulence under the conditions of low wind velocities without wave breaking.

Effect of Schmidt number on mass transfer across a sheared gas-liquid interface in a wind-driven turbulence

PubMed Central

Takagaki, Naohisa; Kurose, Ryoichi; Kimura, Atsushi; Komori, Satoru

2016-01-01

The mass transfer across a sheared gas-liquid interface strongly depends on the Schmidt number. Here we investigate the relationship between mass transfer coefficient on the liquid side, kL, and Schmidt number, Sc, in the wide range of 0.7 ≤ Sc ≤ 1000. We apply a three-dimensional semi direct numerical simulation (SEMI-DNS), in which the mass transfer is solved based on an approximated deconvolution model (ADM) scheme, to wind-driven turbulence with mass transfer across a sheared wind-driven wavy gas-liquid interface. In order to capture the deforming gas-liquid interface, an arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) method is employed. Our results show that similar to the case for flat gas-liquid interfaces, kL for the wind-driven wavy gas-liquid interface is generally proportional to Sc−0.5, and can be roughly estimated by the surface divergence model. This trend is endorsed by the fact that the mass transfer across the gas-liquid interface is controlled mainly by streamwise vortices on the liquid side even for the wind-driven turbulence under the conditions of low wind velocities without wave breaking. PMID:27841325

General-relativistic Large-eddy Simulations of Binary Neutron Star Mergers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Radice, David, E-mail: dradice@astro.princeton.edu

The flow inside remnants of binary neutron star (NS) mergers is expected to be turbulent, because of magnetohydrodynamics instability activated at scales too small to be resolved in simulations. To study the large-scale impact of these instabilities, we develop a new formalism, based on the large-eddy simulation technique, for the modeling of subgrid-scale turbulent transport in general relativity. We apply it, for the first time, to the simulation of the late-inspiral and merger of two NSs. We find that turbulence can significantly affect the structure and survival time of the merger remnant, as well as its gravitational-wave (GW) and neutrinomore » emissions. The former will be relevant for GW observation of merging NSs. The latter will affect the composition of the outflow driven by the merger and might influence its nucleosynthetic yields. The accretion rate after black hole formation is also affected. Nevertheless, we find that, for the most likely values of the turbulence mixing efficiency, these effects are relatively small and the GW signal will be affected only weakly by the turbulence. Thus, our simulations provide a first validation of all existing post-merger GW models.« less

Prescribed journeys through life: Cultural differences in mental time travel between Middle Easterners and Scandinavians.

PubMed

Ottsen, Christina Lundsgaard; Berntsen, Dorthe

2015-12-01

Mental time travel is the ability to remember past events and imagine future events. Here, 124 Middle Easterners and 128 Scandinavians generated important past and future events. These different societies present a unique opportunity to examine effects of culture. Findings indicate stronger influence of normative schemas and greater use of mental time travel to teach, inform and direct behaviour in the Middle East compared with Scandinavia. The Middle Easterners generated more events that corresponded to their cultural life script and that contained religious words, whereas the Scandinavians reported events with a more positive mood impact. Effects of gender were mainly found in the Middle East. Main effects of time orientation largely replicated recent findings showing that simulation of future and past events are not necessarily parallel processes. In accordance with the notion that future simulations rely on schema-based construction, important future events showed a higher overlap with life script events than past events in both cultures. In general, cross-cultural discrepancies were larger in future compared with past events. Notably, the high focus in the Middle East on sharing future events to give cultural guidance is consistent with the increased adherence to normative scripts found in this culture. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Discrete event simulation modelling of patient service management with Arena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guseva, Elena; Varfolomeyeva, Tatyana; Efimova, Irina; Movchan, Irina

2018-05-01

This paper describes the simulation modeling methodology aimed to aid in solving the practical problems of the research and analysing the complex systems. The paper gives the review of a simulation platform sand example of simulation model development with Arena 15.0 (Rockwell Automation).The provided example of the simulation model for the patient service management helps to evaluate the workload of the clinic doctors, determine the number of the general practitioners, surgeons, traumatologists and other specialized doctors required for the patient service and develop recommendations to ensure timely delivery of medical care and improve the efficiency of the clinic operation.

Evaluation of cool season precipitation event characteristics over the Northeast US in a suite of downscaled climate model hindcasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, Paul C.; Waliser, Duane E.; Kim, Jinwon; Ferraro, Robert

2017-08-01

Cool season precipitation event characteristics are evaluated across a suite of downscaled climate models over the northeastern US. Downscaled hindcast simulations are produced by dynamically downscaling the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA2) using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model (RCM) and the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) global climate model. NU-WRF RCM simulations are produced at 24, 12, and 4-km horizontal resolutions using a range of spectral nudging schemes while the MERRA2 global downscaled run is provided at 12.5-km. All model runs are evaluated using four metrics designed to capture key features of precipitation events: event frequency, event intensity, even total, and event duration. Overall, the downscaling approaches result in a reasonable representation of many of the key features of precipitation events over the region, however considerable biases exist in the magnitude of each metric. Based on this evaluation there is no clear indication that higher resolution simulations result in more realistic results in general, however many small-scale features such as orographic enhancement of precipitation are only captured at higher resolutions suggesting some added value over coarser resolution. While the differences between simulations produced using nudging and no nudging are small, there is some improvement in model fidelity when nudging is introduced, especially at a cutoff wavelength of 600 km compared to 2000 km. Based on the results of this evaluation, dynamical regional downscaling using NU-WRF results in a more realistic representation of precipitation event climatology than the global downscaling of MERRA2 using GEOS-5.

NEUTRINO-DRIVEN TURBULENT CONVECTION AND STANDING ACCRETION SHOCK INSTABILITY IN THREE-DIMENSIONAL CORE-COLLAPSE SUPERNOVAE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abdikamalov, Ernazar; Ott, Christian D.; Radice, David

2015-07-20

We conduct a series of numerical experiments into the nature of three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamics in the postbounce stalled-shock phase of core-collapse supernovae using 3D general-relativistic hydrodynamic simulations of a 27 M{sub ⊙} progenitor star with a neutrino leakage/heating scheme. We vary the strength of neutrino heating and find three cases of 3D dynamics: (1) neutrino-driven convection, (2) initially neutrino-driven convection and subsequent development of the standing accretion shock instability (SASI), and (3) SASI-dominated evolution. This confirms previous 3D results of Hanke et al. and Couch and Connor. We carry out simulations with resolutions differing by up to a factor ofmore » ∼4 and demonstrate that low resolution is artificially favorable for explosion in the 3D convection-dominated case since it decreases the efficiency of energy transport to small scales. Low resolution results in higher radial convective fluxes of energy and enthalpy, more fully buoyant mass, and stronger neutrino heating. In the SASI-dominated case, lower resolution damps SASI oscillations. In the convection-dominated case, a quasi-stationary angular kinetic energy spectrum E(ℓ) develops in the heating layer. Like other 3D studies, we find E(ℓ) ∝ℓ{sup −1} in the “inertial range,” while theory and local simulations argue for E(ℓ) ∝ ℓ{sup −5/3}. We argue that current 3D simulations do not resolve the inertial range of turbulence and are affected by numerical viscosity up to the energy-containing scale, creating a “bottleneck” that prevents an efficient turbulent cascade.« less

WHATCH’EM: A Weather-Driven Energy Balance Model for Determining Water Height and Temperature in Container Habitats for Aedes aegypti

PubMed Central

Steinhoff, Daniel F.; Monaghan, Andrew J.; Eisen, Lars; Barlage, Michael J.; Hopson, Thomas M.; Tarakidzwa, Isaac; Ortiz-Rosario, Karielys; Lozano-Fuentes, Saul; Hayden, Mary H.; Bieringer, Paul E.; Welsh Rodríguez, Carlos M.

2017-01-01

The mosquito virus vector Aedes (Ae.) aegypti exploits a wide range of containers as sites for egg laying and development of the immature life stages, yet the approaches for modeling meteorologically sensitive container water dynamics have been limited. This study introduces the Water Height and Temperature in Container Habitats Energy Model (WHATCH’EM), a state-of-the-science, physically based energy balance model of water height and temperature in containers that may serve as development sites for mosquitoes. The authors employ WHATCH’EM to model container water dynamics in three cities along a climatic gradient in México ranging from sea level, where Ae. aegypti is highly abundant, to ~2100 m, where Ae. aegypti is rarely found. When compared with measurements from a 1-month field experiment in two of these cities during summer 2013, WHATCH’EM realistically simulates the daily mean and range of water temperature for a variety of containers. To examine container dynamics for an entire season, WHATCH’EM is also driven with field-derived meteorological data from May to September 2011 and evaluated for three commonly encountered container types. WHATCH’EM simulates the highly nonlinear manner in which air temperature, humidity, rainfall, clouds, and container characteristics (shape, size, and color) determine water temperature and height. Sunlight exposure, modulated by clouds and shading from nearby objects, plays a first-order role. In general, simulated water temperatures are higher for containers that are larger, darker, and receive more sunlight. WHATCH’EM simulations will be helpful in understanding the limiting meteorological and container-related factors for proliferation of Ae. aegypti and may be useful for informing weather-driven early warning systems for viruses transmitted by Ae. aegypti. PMID:29123363

Simulation on the Performance of a Driven Fan Made by Polyester/Epoxy interpenetrate polymer network (IPN)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fahrul Hassan, Mohd; Jamri, Azmil; Nawawi, Azli; Zaini Yunos, Muhamad; Fauzi Ahmad, Md; Adzila, Sharifah; Nasrull Abdol Rahman, Mohd

2017-08-01

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the performance of a driven fan design made by Polyester/Epoxy interpenetrate polymer network (IPN) material that specifically used for turbocharger compressor. Polyester/Epoxy IPN is polymer plastics that was used as replacements for traditional polymers and has been widely used in a variety of applications because of their limitless conformations. Simulation based on several parameters which are air pressure, air velocity and air temperature have been carried out for a driven fan design performance of two different materials, aluminum alloy (existing driven fan design) and Polyester/Epoxy IPN using SolidWorks Flow Simulation software. Results from both simulations were analyzed and compared where both materials show similar performance in terms of air pressure and air velocity due to similar geometric and dimension, but Polyester/Epoxy IPN produces lower air temperature than aluminum alloy. This study shows a preliminary result of the potential Polyester/Epoxy IPN to be used as a driven fan design material. In the future, further studies will be conducted on detail simulation and experimental analysis.

Projecting Future Changes in Extreme Weather During the North American Monsoon in the Southwest with High Resolution, Convective-Permitting Regional Atmospheric Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, H. I.; Castro, C. L.; Luong, T. M.; Lahmers, T.; Jares, M.; Carrillo, C. M.

2014-12-01

Most severe weather during the North American monsoon in the Southwest U.S. occurs in association with organized convection, including microbursts, dust storms, flash flooding and lightning. Our objective is to project how monsoon severe weather is changing due to anthropogenic global warming. We first consider a dynamically downscaled reanalysis (35 km grid spacing), generated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model during the period 1948-2010. Individual severe weather events, identified by favorable thermodynamic conditions of instability and precipitable water, are then simulated for short-term, numerical weather prediction-type simulations of 24h at a convective-permitting scale (2 km grid spacing). Changes in the character of severe weather events within this period likely reflect long-term climate change driven by anthropogenic forcing. Next, we apply the identical model simulation and analysis procedures to several dynamically downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 models for the period 1950-2100, to assess how monsoon severe weather may change in the future and if these changes correspond with what is already occurring per the downscaled renalaysis and available observational data. The CMIP5 models we are downscaling (HadGEM and MPI-ECHAM6) will be included as part of North American CORDEX. The regional model experimental design for severe weather event projection reasonably accounts for the known operational forecast prerequisites for severe monsoon weather. The convective-permitting simulations show that monsoon convection appears to be reasonably well captured with the use of the dynamically downscaled reanalysis, in comparison to Stage IV precipitation data. The regional model tends to initiate convection too early, though correctly simulates the diurnal maximum in convection in the afternoon and subsequent westward propagation of thunderstorms. Projected changes in extreme event precipitation will be described in relation to the long-term changes in thermodynamic and dynamic forcing mechanisms for severe weather. Results from this project will be used for climate change impacts assessment for U.S. military installations in the region.

Assessing respondent-driven sampling.

PubMed

Goel, Sharad; Salganik, Matthew J

2010-04-13

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a network-based technique for estimating traits in hard-to-reach populations, for example, the prevalence of HIV among drug injectors. In recent years RDS has been used in more than 120 studies in more than 20 countries and by leading public health organizations, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States. Despite the widespread use and growing popularity of RDS, there has been little empirical validation of the methodology. Here we investigate the performance of RDS by simulating sampling from 85 known, network populations. Across a variety of traits we find that RDS is substantially less accurate than generally acknowledged and that reported RDS confidence intervals are misleadingly narrow. Moreover, because we model a best-case scenario in which the theoretical RDS sampling assumptions hold exactly, it is unlikely that RDS performs any better in practice than in our simulations. Notably, the poor performance of RDS is driven not by the bias but by the high variance of estimates, a possibility that had been largely overlooked in the RDS literature. Given the consistency of our results across networks and our generous sampling conditions, we conclude that RDS as currently practiced may not be suitable for key aspects of public health surveillance where it is now extensively applied.

Assessing respondent-driven sampling

PubMed Central

Goel, Sharad; Salganik, Matthew J.

2010-01-01

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a network-based technique for estimating traits in hard-to-reach populations, for example, the prevalence of HIV among drug injectors. In recent years RDS has been used in more than 120 studies in more than 20 countries and by leading public health organizations, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States. Despite the widespread use and growing popularity of RDS, there has been little empirical validation of the methodology. Here we investigate the performance of RDS by simulating sampling from 85 known, network populations. Across a variety of traits we find that RDS is substantially less accurate than generally acknowledged and that reported RDS confidence intervals are misleadingly narrow. Moreover, because we model a best-case scenario in which the theoretical RDS sampling assumptions hold exactly, it is unlikely that RDS performs any better in practice than in our simulations. Notably, the poor performance of RDS is driven not by the bias but by the high variance of estimates, a possibility that had been largely overlooked in the RDS literature. Given the consistency of our results across networks and our generous sampling conditions, we conclude that RDS as currently practiced may not be suitable for key aspects of public health surveillance where it is now extensively applied. PMID:20351258

3D SPH numerical simulation of the wave generated by the Vajont rockslide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vacondio, R.; Mignosa, P.; Pagani, S.

2013-09-01

A 3D numerical modeling of the wave generated by the Vajont slide, one of the most destructive ever occurred, is presented in this paper. A meshless Lagrangian Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) technique was adopted to simulate the highly fragmented violent flow generated by the falling slide in the artificial reservoir. The speed-up achievable via General Purpose Graphic Processing Units (GP-GPU) allowed to adopt the adequate resolution to describe the phenomenon. The comparison with the data available in literature showed that the results of the numerical simulation reproduce satisfactorily the maximum run-up, also the water surface elevation in the residual lake after the event. Moreover, the 3D velocity field of the flow during the event and the discharge hydrograph which overtopped the dam, were obtained.

Start-to-end simulation of the shot-noise driven microbunching instability experiment at the Linac Coherent Light Source

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qiang, J.; Ding, Y.; Emma, P.

The shot-noise driven microbunching instability can significantly degrade electron beam quality in x-ray free electron laser light sources. Experiments were carried out at the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) to study this instability. Here in this paper, we present start-to-end simulations of the shot-noise driven microbunching instability experiment at the LCLS using the real number of electrons. The simulation results reproduce the measurements quite well. A microbunching self-heating mechanism is also illustrated in the simulation, which helps explain the experimental observation.

Start-to-end simulation of the shot-noise driven microbunching instability experiment at the Linac Coherent Light Source

DOE PAGES

Qiang, J.; Ding, Y.; Emma, P.; ...

2017-05-23

The shot-noise driven microbunching instability can significantly degrade electron beam quality in x-ray free electron laser light sources. Experiments were carried out at the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) to study this instability. Here in this paper, we present start-to-end simulations of the shot-noise driven microbunching instability experiment at the LCLS using the real number of electrons. The simulation results reproduce the measurements quite well. A microbunching self-heating mechanism is also illustrated in the simulation, which helps explain the experimental observation.

Simulation and animation of sensor-driven robots

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, C.; Trivedi, M.M.; Bidlack, C.R.

1994-10-01

Most simulation and animation systems utilized in robotics are concerned with simulation of the robot and its environment without simulation of sensors. These systems have difficulty in handling robots that utilize sensory feedback in their operation. In this paper, a new design of an environment for simulation, animation, and visualization of sensor-driven robots is presented. As sensor technology advances, increasing numbers of robots are equipped with various types of sophisticated sensors. The main goal of creating the visualization environment is to aide the automatic robot programming and off-line programming capabilities of sensor-driven robots. The software system will help the usersmore » visualize the motion and reaction of the sensor-driven robot under their control program. Therefore, the efficiency of the software development is increased, the reliability of the software and the operation safety of the robot are ensured, and the cost of new software development is reduced. Conventional computer-graphics-based robot simulation and animation software packages lack of capabilities for robot sensing simulation. This paper describes a system designed to overcome this deficiency.« less

VEEP - Vehicle Economy, Emissions, and Performance program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heimburger, D. A.; Metcalfe, M. A.

1977-01-01

VEEP is a general-purpose discrete event simulation program being developed to study the performance, fuel economy, and exhaust emissions of a vehicle modeled as a collection of its separate components. It is written in SIMSCRIPT II.5. The purpose of this paper is to present the design methodology, describe the simulation model and its components, and summarize the preliminary results. Topics include chief programmer team concepts, the SDDL design language, program portability, user-oriented design, the program's user command syntax, the simulation procedure, and model validation.

The Scattering Outcomes of Kepler Circumbinary Planets: Planet Mass Ratio

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gong, Yan-Xiang; Ji, Jianghui, E-mail: yxgong@pmo.ac.cn, E-mail: jijh@pmo.ac.cn

Recent studies reveal that the free eccentricities of Kepler-34b and Kepler-413b are much larger than their forced eccentricities, implying that scattering events may take place in their formation. The observed orbital configuration of Kepler-34b cannot be well reproduced in disk-driven migration models, whereas a two-planet scattering scenario can play a significant role of shaping the planetary configuration. These studies indicate that circumbinary planets discovered by Kepler may have experienced scattering process. In this work, we extensively investigate the scattering outcomes of circumbinary planets focusing on the effects of planet mass ratio . We find that the planetary mass ratio andmore » the the initial relative locations of planets act as two important parameters that affect the eccentricity distribution of the surviving planets. As an application of our model, we discuss the observed orbital configurations of Kepler-34b and Kepler-413b. We first adopt the results from the disk-driven models as the initial conditions, then simulate the scattering process that occurs in the late evolution stage of circumbinary planets. We show that the present orbital configurations of Kepler-34b and Kepler-413b can be well reproduced when considering a two unequal-mass planet ejection model. Our work further suggests that some of the currently discovered circumbinary single-planet systems may be survivors of original multiple-planet systems. The disk-driven migration and scattering events occurring in the late stage both play an irreplaceable role in sculpting the final systems.« less

Active Learning with Rationales for Identifying Operationally Significant Anomalies in Aviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sharma, Manali; Das, Kamalika; Bilgic, Mustafa; Matthews, Bryan; Nielsen, David Lynn; Oza, Nikunj C.

2016-01-01

A major focus of the commercial aviation community is discovery of unknown safety events in flight operations data. Data-driven unsupervised anomaly detection methods are better at capturing unknown safety events compared to rule-based methods which only look for known violations. However, not all statistical anomalies that are discovered by these unsupervised anomaly detection methods are operationally significant (e.g., represent a safety concern). Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) have to spend significant time reviewing these statistical anomalies individually to identify a few operationally significant ones. In this paper we propose an active learning algorithm that incorporates SME feedback in the form of rationales to build a classifier that can distinguish between uninteresting and operationally significant anomalies. Experimental evaluation on real aviation data shows that our approach improves detection of operationally significant events by as much as 75% compared to the state-of-the-art. The learnt classifier also generalizes well to additional validation data sets.

Multi-dimensional simulations of core-collapse supernova explosions with CHIMERA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Messer, Bronson; Harris, James Austin; Hix, William Raphael

Unraveling the core-collapse supernova (CCSN) mechanism is a problem that remains essentially unsolved despite more than four decades of effort. Spherically symmetric models with otherwise high physical fidelity generally fail to produce explosions, and it is widely accepted that CCSNe are inherently multi-dimensional. Progress in realistic modeling has occurred recently through the availability of petascale platforms and the increasing sophistication of supernova codes. We will discuss our most recent work on understanding neutrino-driven CCSN explosions employing multi-dimensional neutrino-radiation hydrodynamics simulations with the Chimera code. We discuss the inputs and resulting outputs from these simulations, the role of neutrino radiation transport,more » and the importance of multi-dimensional fluid flows in shaping the explosions. We also highlight the production of 48Ca in long-running Chimera simulations.« less

Identifying Seizure Onset Zone From the Causal Connectivity Inferred Using Directed Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malladi, Rakesh; Kalamangalam, Giridhar; Tandon, Nitin; Aazhang, Behnaam

2016-10-01

In this paper, we developed a model-based and a data-driven estimator for directed information (DI) to infer the causal connectivity graph between electrocorticographic (ECoG) signals recorded from brain and to identify the seizure onset zone (SOZ) in epileptic patients. Directed information, an information theoretic quantity, is a general metric to infer causal connectivity between time-series and is not restricted to a particular class of models unlike the popular metrics based on Granger causality or transfer entropy. The proposed estimators are shown to be almost surely convergent. Causal connectivity between ECoG electrodes in five epileptic patients is inferred using the proposed DI estimators, after validating their performance on simulated data. We then proposed a model-based and a data-driven SOZ identification algorithm to identify SOZ from the causal connectivity inferred using model-based and data-driven DI estimators respectively. The data-driven SOZ identification outperforms the model-based SOZ identification algorithm when benchmarked against visual analysis by neurologist, the current clinical gold standard. The causal connectivity analysis presented here is the first step towards developing novel non-surgical treatments for epilepsy.

Patterns of precipitation and soil moisture extremes in Texas, US: A complex network analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Alexander Y.; Xia, Youlong; Caldwell, Todd G.; Hao, Zengchao

2018-02-01

Understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of extreme precipitation not only improves prediction skills, but also helps to prioritize hazard mitigation efforts. This study seeks to enhance the understanding of spatiotemporal covariation patterns embedded in precipitation (P) and soil moisture (SM) by using an event-based, complex-network-theoretic approach. Events concurrences are quantified using a nonparametric event synchronization measure, and spatial patterns of hydroclimate variables are analyzed by using several network measures and a community detection algorithm. SM-P coupling is examined using a directional event coincidence analysis measure that takes the order of event occurrences into account. The complex network approach is demonstrated for Texas, US, a region possessing a rich set of hydroclimate features and is frequented by catastrophic flooding. Gridded daily observed P data and simulated SM data are used to create complex networks of P and SM extremes. The uncovered high degree centrality regions and community structures are qualitatively in agreement with the overall existing knowledge of hydroclimate extremes in the study region. Our analyses provide new visual insights on the propagation, connectivity, and synchronicity of P extremes, as well as the SM-P coupling, in this flood-prone region, and can be readily used as a basis for event-driven predictive analytics for other regions.

Simulating adverse event spontaneous reporting systems as preferential attachment networks: application to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System.

PubMed

Scott, J; Botsis, T; Ball, R

2014-01-01

Spontaneous Reporting Systems [SRS] are critical tools in the post-licensure evaluation of medical product safety. Regulatory authorities use a variety of data mining techniques to detect potential safety signals in SRS databases. Assessing the performance of such signal detection procedures requires simulated SRS databases, but simulation strategies proposed to date each have limitations. We sought to develop a novel SRS simulation strategy based on plausible mechanisms for the growth of databases over time. We developed a simulation strategy based on the network principle of preferential attachment. We demonstrated how this strategy can be used to create simulations based on specific databases of interest, and provided an example of using such simulations to compare signal detection thresholds for a popular data mining algorithm. The preferential attachment simulations were generally structurally similar to our targeted SRS database, although they had fewer nodes of very high degree. The approach was able to generate signal-free SRS simulations, as well as mimicking specific known true signals. Explorations of different reporting thresholds for the FDA Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System suggested that using proportional reporting ratio [PRR] > 3.0 may yield better signal detection operating characteristics than the more commonly used PRR > 2.0 threshold. The network analytic approach to SRS simulation based on the principle of preferential attachment provides an attractive framework for exploring the performance of safety signal detection algorithms. This approach is potentially more principled and versatile than existing simulation approaches. The utility of network-based SRS simulations needs to be further explored by evaluating other types of simulated signals with a broader range of data mining approaches, and comparing network-based simulations with other simulation strategies where applicable.

Seismic source parameters of the induced seismicity at The Geysers geothermal area, California, by a generalized inversion approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Picozzi, Matteo; Oth, Adrien; Parolai, Stefano; Bindi, Dino; De Landro, Grazia; Amoroso, Ortensia

2017-04-01

The accurate determination of stress drop, seismic efficiency and how source parameters scale with earthquake size is an important for seismic hazard assessment of induced seismicity. We propose an improved non-parametric, data-driven strategy suitable for monitoring induced seismicity, which combines the generalized inversion technique together with genetic algorithms. In the first step of the analysis the generalized inversion technique allows for an effective correction of waveforms for the attenuation and site contributions. Then, the retrieved source spectra are inverted by a non-linear sensitivity-driven inversion scheme that allows accurate estimation of source parameters. We therefore investigate the earthquake source characteristics of 633 induced earthquakes (ML 2-4.5) recorded at The Geysers geothermal field (California) by a dense seismic network (i.e., 32 stations of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Geysers/Calpine surface seismic network, more than 17.000 velocity records). We find for most of the events a non-selfsimilar behavior, empirical source spectra that requires ωγ source model with γ > 2 to be well fitted and small radiation efficiency ηSW. All these findings suggest different dynamic rupture processes for smaller and larger earthquakes, and that the proportion of high frequency energy radiation and the amount of energy required to overcome the friction or for the creation of new fractures surface changes with the earthquake size. Furthermore, we observe also two distinct families of events with peculiar source parameters that, in one case suggests the reactivation of deep structures linked to the regional tectonics, while in the other supports the idea of an important role of steeply dipping fault in the fluid pressure diffusion.

Impact of soil moisture initialization on boreal summer subseasonal forecasts: mid-latitude surface air temperature and heat wave events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Eunkyo; Lee, Myong-In; Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Koster, Randal D.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Kim, Hye-Mi; Kim, Daehyun; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Kim, Hyun-Kyung; MacLachlan, Craig; Scaife, Adam A.

2018-05-01

This study uses a global land-atmosphere coupled model, the land-atmosphere component of the Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5, to quantify the degree to which soil moisture initialization could potentially enhance boreal summer surface air temperature forecast skill. Two sets of hindcast experiments are performed by prescribing the observed sea surface temperature as the boundary condition for a 15-year period (1996-2010). In one set of the hindcast experiments (noINIT), the initial soil moisture conditions are randomly taken from a long-term simulation. In the other set (INIT), the initial soil moisture conditions are taken from an observation-driven offline Land Surface Model (LSM) simulation. The soil moisture conditions from the offline LSM simulation are calibrated using the forecast model statistics to minimize the inconsistency between the LSM and the land-atmosphere coupled model in their mean and variability. Results show a higher boreal summer surface air temperature prediction skill in INIT than in noINIT, demonstrating the potential benefit from an accurate soil moisture initialization. The forecast skill enhancement appears especially in the areas in which the evaporative fraction—the ratio of surface latent heat flux to net surface incoming radiation—is sensitive to soil moisture amount. These areas lie in the transitional regime between humid and arid climates. Examination of the extreme 2003 European and 2010 Russian heat wave events reveal that the regionally anomalous soil moisture conditions during the events played an important role in maintaining the stationary circulation anomalies, especially those near the surface.

Climatological simulations of ozone and atmospheric aerosols in the Greater Cairo region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steiner, A. L.; Tawfik, A. B.; Shalaby, A.

An integrated chemistry-climate model (RegCM4-CHEM) simulates present-day climate, ozone and tropospheric aerosols over Egypt with a focus on Greater Cairo (GC) region. The densley populated GC region is known for its severe air quality issues driven by high levels of anthropogenic pollution in conjuction with natural sources such as dust and agricultural burning events. We find that current global emission inventories underestimate key pollutants such as nitrogen oxides and anthropogenic aerosol species. In the GC region, average-ground-based NO2 observations of 40-60 ppb are substantially higher than modeled estimates (5-10 ppb), likely due to model grid resolution, improper boundary layer representation,more » and poor emissions inventories. Observed ozone concentrations range from 35 ppb (winter) to 80 ppb (summer). The model reproduces the seasonal cycle fairly well, but modeled summer ozone is understimated by approximately 15 ppb and exhibits little interannual variability. For aerosols, springtime dust events dominate the seasonal aerosol cycle. The chemistry-climate model captures the springtime peak aerosol optical depth (AOD) of 0.7-1 but is slightly greater than satellite-derived AOD. Observed AOD decreases in the summer and increases again in the fall due to agricultural burning events in the Nile Delta, yet the model underestimates this fall observed AOD peak, as standard emissions inventories underestimate this burning and the resulting aerosol emissions. Our comparison of modeled gas and particulate phase atmospheric chemistry in the GC region indicates that improved emissions inventories of mobile sources and other anthropogenic activities are needed to improve air quality simulations in this region.« less

Post-merger evolution of a neutron star-black hole binary with neutrino transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foucart, Francois; O'Connor, Evan; Roberts, Luke; Duez, Matthew D.; Haas, Roland; Kidder, Lawrence E.; Ott, Christian D.; Pfeiffer, Harald P.; Scheel, Mark A.; Szilagyi, Bela

2015-06-01

We present a first simulation of the post-merger evolution of a black hole-neutron star binary in full general relativity using an energy-integrated general-relativistic truncated moment formalism for neutrino transport. We describe our implementation of the moment formalism and important tests of our code, before studying the formation phase of an accretion disk after a black hole-neutron star merger. We use as initial data an existing general-relativistic simulation of the merger of a neutron star of mass 1.4 M⊙ with a black hole of mass 7 M⊙ and dimensionless spin χBH=0.8 . Comparing with a simpler leakage scheme for the treatment of the neutrinos, we find noticeable differences in the neutron-to-proton ratio in and around the disk, and in the neutrino luminosity. We find that the electron neutrino luminosity is much lower in the transport simulations, and that both the disk and the disk outflows are less neutron rich. The spatial distribution of the neutrinos is significantly affected by relativistic effects, due to large velocities and curvature in the regions of strongest emission. Over the short time scale evolved, we do not observe purely neutrino-driven outflows. However, a small amount of material (3 ×10-4M⊙ ) is ejected in the polar region during the circularization of the disk. Most of that material is ejected early in the formation of the disk, and is fairly neutron rich (electron fraction Ye˜0.15 - 0.25 ). Through r-process nucleosynthesis, that material should produce high-opacity lanthanides in the polar region, and could thus affect the light curve of radioactively powered electromagnetic transients. We also show that by the end of the simulation, while the bulk of the disk remains neutron rich (Ye˜0.15 - 0.2 and decreasing), its outer layers have a higher electron fraction: 10% of the remaining mass has Ye>0.3 . As that material would be the first to be unbound by disk outflows on longer time scales, and as composition evolution is slower at later times, the changes in Ye experienced during the formation phase of the disk could have an impact on nucleosynthesis outputs from neutrino-driven and viscously driven outflows. Finally, we find that the effective viscosity due to momentum transport by neutrinos is unlikely to have a strong effect on the growth of the magnetorotational instability in the post-merger accretion disk.

Climate change is projected to have severe impacts on the frequency and intensity of peak electricity demand across the United States

PubMed Central

Auffhammer, Maximilian; Baylis, Patrick; Hausman, Catherine H.

2017-01-01

It has been suggested that climate change impacts on the electric sector will account for the majority of global economic damages by the end of the current century and beyond [Rose S, et al. (2014) Understanding the Social Cost of Carbon: A Technical Assessment]. The empirical literature has shown significant increases in climate-driven impacts on overall consumption, yet has not focused on the cost implications of the increased intensity and frequency of extreme events driving peak demand, which is the highest load observed in a period. We use comprehensive, high-frequency data at the level of load balancing authorities to parameterize the relationship between average or peak electricity demand and temperature for a major economy. Using statistical models, we analyze multiyear data from 166 load balancing authorities in the United States. We couple the estimated temperature response functions for total daily consumption and daily peak load with 18 downscaled global climate models (GCMs) to simulate climate change-driven impacts on both outcomes. We show moderate and heterogeneous changes in consumption, with an average increase of 2.8% by end of century. The results of our peak load simulations, however, suggest significant increases in the intensity and frequency of peak events throughout the United States, assuming today’s technology and electricity market fundamentals. As the electricity grid is built to endure maximum load, our findings have significant implications for the construction of costly peak generating capacity, suggesting additional peak capacity costs of up to 180 billion dollars by the end of the century under business-as-usual. PMID:28167756

An equation-free approach to agent-based computation: Bifurcation analysis and control of stationary states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siettos, C. I.; Gear, C. W.; Kevrekidis, I. G.

2012-08-01

We show how the equation-free approach can be exploited to enable agent-based simulators to perform system-level computations such as bifurcation, stability analysis and controller design. We illustrate these tasks through an event-driven agent-based model describing the dynamic behaviour of many interacting investors in the presence of mimesis. Using short bursts of appropriately initialized runs of the detailed, agent-based simulator, we construct the coarse-grained bifurcation diagram of the (expected) density of agents and investigate the stability of its multiple solution branches. When the mimetic coupling between agents becomes strong enough, the stable stationary state loses its stability at a coarse turning point bifurcation. We also demonstrate how the framework can be used to design a wash-out dynamic controller that stabilizes open-loop unstable stationary states even under model uncertainty.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blackwell, Matt; Rodger, Arthur; Kennedy, Tom

When the California Academy of Sciences created the "Earthquake: Evidence of a Restless Planet" exhibit, they called on Lawrence Livermore to help combine seismic research with the latest data-driven visualization techniques. The outcome is a series of striking visualizations of earthquakes, tsunamis and tectonic plate evolution. Seismic-wave research is a core competency at Livermore. While most often associated with earthquakes, the research has many other applications of national interest, such as nuclear explosion monitoring, explosion forensics, energy exploration, and seismic acoustics. For the Academy effort, Livermore researchers simulated the San Andreas and Hayward fault events at high resolutions. Such calculationsmore » require significant computational resources. To simulate the 1906 earthquake, for instance, visualizing 125 seconds of ground motion required over 1 billion grid points, 10,000 time steps, and 7.5 hours of processor time on 2,048 cores of Livermore's Sierra machine.« less

Supercomputing meets seismology in earthquake exhibit

ScienceCinema

Blackwell, Matt; Rodger, Arthur; Kennedy, Tom

2018-02-14

When the California Academy of Sciences created the "Earthquake: Evidence of a Restless Planet" exhibit, they called on Lawrence Livermore to help combine seismic research with the latest data-driven visualization techniques. The outcome is a series of striking visualizations of earthquakes, tsunamis and tectonic plate evolution. Seismic-wave research is a core competency at Livermore. While most often associated with earthquakes, the research has many other applications of national interest, such as nuclear explosion monitoring, explosion forensics, energy exploration, and seismic acoustics. For the Academy effort, Livermore researchers simulated the San Andreas and Hayward fault events at high resolutions. Such calculations require significant computational resources. To simulate the 1906 earthquake, for instance, visualizing 125 seconds of ground motion required over 1 billion grid points, 10,000 time steps, and 7.5 hours of processor time on 2,048 cores of Livermore's Sierra machine.

Epidemic spreading on activity-driven networks with attractiveness.

PubMed

Pozzana, Iacopo; Sun, Kaiyuan; Perra, Nicola

2017-10-01

We study SIS epidemic spreading processes unfolding on a recent generalization of the activity-driven modeling framework. In this model of time-varying networks, each node is described by two variables: activity and attractiveness. The first describes the propensity to form connections, while the second defines the propensity to attract them. We derive analytically the epidemic threshold considering the time scale driving the evolution of contacts and the contagion as comparable. The solutions are general and hold for any joint distribution of activity and attractiveness. The theoretical picture is confirmed via large-scale numerical simulations performed considering heterogeneous distributions and different correlations between the two variables. We find that heterogeneous distributions of attractiveness alter the contagion process. In particular, in the case of uncorrelated and positive correlations between the two variables, heterogeneous attractiveness facilitates the spreading. On the contrary, negative correlations between activity and attractiveness hamper the spreading. The results presented contribute to the understanding of the dynamical properties of time-varying networks and their effects on contagion phenomena unfolding on their fabric.

Ultrafast hydrogen exchange reveals specific structural events during the initial stages of folding of cytochrome c.

PubMed

Fazelinia, Hossein; Xu, Ming; Cheng, Hong; Roder, Heinrich

2014-01-15

Many proteins undergo a sharp decrease in chain dimensions during early stages of folding, prior to the rate-limiting step in folding. However, it remains unclear whether compact states are the result of specific folding events or a general hydrophobic collapse of the poly peptide chain driven by the change in solvent conditions. To address this fundamental question, we extended the temporal resolution of NMR-detected H/D exchange labeling experiments into the microsecond regime by adopting a microfluidics approach. By observing the competition between H/D exchange and folding as a function of labeling pH, coupled with direct measurement of exchange rates in the unfolded state, we were able to monitor hydrogen-bond formation for over 50 individual backbone NH groups within the initial 140 microseconds of folding of horse cytochrome c. Clusters of solvent-shielded amide protons were observed in two α-helical segments in the C-terminal half of the protein, while the N-terminal helix remained largely unstructured, suggesting that proximity in the primary structure is a major factor in promoting helix formation and association at early stages of folding, while the entropically more costly long-range contacts between the N- and C-terminal helices are established only during later stages. Our findings clearly indicate that the initial chain condensation in cytochrome c is driven by specific interactions among a subset of α-helical segments rather than a general hydrophobic collapse.

Simulation studies of vestibular macular afferent-discharge patterns using a new, quasi-3-D finite volume method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ross, M. D.; Linton, S. W.; Parnas, B. R.

2000-01-01

A quasi-three-dimensional finite-volume numerical simulator was developed to study passive voltage spread in vestibular macular afferents. The method, borrowed from computational fluid dynamics, discretizes events transpiring in small volumes over time. The afferent simulated had three calyces with processes. The number of processes and synapses, and direction and timing of synapse activation, were varied. Simultaneous synapse activation resulted in shortest latency, while directional activation (proximal to distal and distal to proximal) yielded most regular discharges. Color-coded visualizations showed that the simulator discretized events and demonstrated that discharge produced a distal spread of voltage from the spike initiator into the ending. The simulations indicate that directional input, morphology, and timing of synapse activation can affect discharge properties, as must also distal spread of voltage from the spike initiator. The finite volume method has generality and can be applied to more complex neurons to explore discrete synaptic effects in four dimensions.

Scalable File Systems for High Performance Computing Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brandt, S A

2007-10-03

Simulations of mode I interlaminar fracture toughness tests of a carbon-reinforced composite material (BMS 8-212) were conducted with LSDYNA. The fracture toughness tests were performed by U.C. Berkeley. The simulations were performed to investigate the validity and practicality of employing decohesive elements to represent interlaminar bond failures that are prevalent in carbon-fiber composite structure penetration events. The simulations employed a decohesive element formulation that was verified on a simple two element model before being employed to perform the full model simulations. Care was required during the simulations to ensure that the explicit time integration of LSDYNA duplicate the near steady-statemore » testing conditions. In general, this study validated the use of employing decohesive elements to represent the interlaminar bond failures seen in carbon-fiber composite structures, but the practicality of employing the elements to represent the bond failures seen in carbon-fiber composite structures during penetration events was not established.« less

Improving outpatient phlebotomy service efficiency and patient experience using discrete-event simulation.

PubMed

Yip, Kenneth; Pang, Suk-King; Chan, Kui-Tim; Chan, Chi-Kuen; Lee, Tsz-Leung

2016-08-08

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to present a simulation modeling application to reconfigure the outpatient phlebotomy service of an acute regional and teaching hospital in Hong Kong, with an aim to improve service efficiency, shorten patient queuing time and enhance workforce utilization. Design/methodology/approach - The system was modeled as an inhomogeneous Poisson process and a discrete-event simulation model was developed to simulate the current setting, and to evaluate how various performance metrics would change if switched from a decentralized to a centralized model. Variations were then made to the model to test different workforce arrangements for the centralized service, so that managers could decide on the service's final configuration via an evidence-based and data-driven approach. Findings - This paper provides empirical insights about the relationship between staffing arrangement and system performance via a detailed scenario analysis. One particular staffing scenario was chosen by manages as it was considered to strike the best balance between performance and workforce scheduled. The resulting centralized phlebotomy service was successfully commissioned. Practical implications - This paper demonstrates how analytics could be used for operational planning at the hospital level. The authors show that a transparent and evidence-based scenario analysis, made available through analytics and simulation, greatly facilitates management and clinical stakeholders to arrive at the ideal service configuration. Originality/value - The authors provide a robust method in evaluating the relationship between workforce investment, queuing reduction and workforce utilization, which is crucial for managers when deciding the delivery model for any outpatient-related service.

Nearshore hydrodynamics as loading and forcing factors for Escherichia coli contamination at an embayed beach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ge, Zhongfu; Whitman, Richard L.; Nevers, Meredith B.; Phanikumar, Mantha S.; Byappanahalli, Muruleedhara N.

2012-01-01

Numerical simulations of the transport and fate of Escherichia coli were conducted at Chicago’s 63rd Street Beach, an embayed beach that had the highest mean E. coli concentration among 23 similar Lake Michigan beaches during summer months of 2000-2005, in order to find the cause for the high bacterial contamination. The numerical model was based on the transport of E. coli by current circulation patterns in the embayment driven by longshore main currents and the loss of E. coli in the water column, taking settling as well as bacterial dark- and solar-related decay into account. Two E. coli loading scenarios were considered: one from the open boundary north of the embayment and the other from the shallow water near the beachfront. Simulations showed that the embayed beach behaves as a sink for E. coli in that it generally receives E. coli more efficiently than it releases them. This is a result of the significantly different hydrodynamic forcing factors between the inside of the embayment and the main coastal flow outside. The settled E. coli inside the embayment can be a potential source of contamination during subsequent sediment resuspension events, suggesting that deposition-resuspension cycles of E. coli have resulted in excessive bacterial contamination of beach water. A further hypothetical case with a breakwater shortened to half its original length, which was anticipated to enhance the current circulation in the embayment, showed a reduction in E. coli concentrations of nearly 20%.

Nearshore hydrodynamics as loading and forcing factors for Escherichia coli contamination at an embayed beach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ge, Zhongfu; Whitman, Richard L.; Nevers, Meredith B.; Phanikumar, Mantha S.; Byappanahalli, Muruleedhara N.

2012-01-01

Numerical simulations of the transport and fate of Escherichia coli were conducted at Chicago's 63rd Street Beach, an embayed beach that had the highest mean E. coli concentration among 23 similar Lake Michigan beaches during summer months of 2000-2005, in order to find the cause for the high bacterial contamination. The numerical model was based on the transport of E. coli by current circulation patterns in the embayment driven by longshore main currents and the loss of E. coli in the water column, taking settling as well as bacterial dark- and solar-related decay into account. Two E. coli loading scenarios were considered: one from the open boundary north of the embayment and the other from the shallow water near the beachfront. Simulations showed that the embayed beach behaves as a sink for E. coli in that it generally receives E. coli more efficiently than it releases them. This is a result of the significantly different hydrodynamic forcing factors between the inside of the embayment and the main coastal flow outside. The settled E. coli inside the embayment can be a potential source of contamination during subsequent sediment resuspension events, suggesting that deposition-resuspension cycles of E. coli have resulted in excessive bacterial contamination of beach water. A further hypothetical case with a breakwater shortened to half its original length, which was anticipated to enhance the current circulation in the embayment, showed a reduction in E. coli concentrations of nearly 20%.

NEUTRON-STAR MERGER EJECTA AS OBSTACLES TO NEUTRINO-POWERED JETS OF GAMMA-RAY BURSTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Just, O.; Janka, H.-T.; Schwarz, N.

2016-01-10

We present the first special relativistic, axisymmetric hydrodynamic simulations of black hole-torus systems (approximating general relativistic gravity) as remnants of binary-neutron star (NS–NS) and neutron star–black hole (NS–BH) mergers, in which the viscously driven evolution of the accretion torus is followed with self-consistent energy-dependent neutrino transport and the interaction with the cloud of dynamical ejecta expelled during the NS–NS merging is taken into account. The modeled torus masses, BH masses and spins, and the ejecta masses, velocities, and spatial distributions are adopted from relativistic merger simulations. We find that energy deposition by neutrino annihilation can accelerate outflows with initially highmore » Lorentz factors along polar low-density funnels, but only in mergers with extremely low baryon pollution in the polar regions. NS–BH mergers, where polar mass ejection during the merging phase is absent, provide sufficiently baryon-poor environments to enable neutrino-powered, ultrarelativistic jets with terminal Lorentz factors above 100 and considerable dynamical collimation, favoring short gamma-ray bursts (sGRBs), although their typical energies and durations might be too small to explain the majority of events. In the case of NS–NS mergers, however, neutrino emission of the accreting and viscously spreading torus is too short and too weak to yield enough energy for the outflows to break out from the surrounding ejecta shell as highly relativistic jets. We conclude that neutrino annihilation alone cannot power sGRBs from NS–NS mergers.« less

Floquet–Magnus theory and generic transient dynamics in periodically driven many-body quantum systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuwahara, Tomotaka, E-mail: tomotaka.phys@gmail.com; WPI, Advanced Institute for Materials Research, Tohoku University, Sendai 980-8577; Mori, Takashi

2016-04-15

This work explores a fundamental dynamical structure for a wide range of many-body quantum systems under periodic driving. Generically, in the thermodynamic limit, such systems are known to heat up to infinite temperature states in the long-time limit irrespective of dynamical details, which kills all the specific properties of the system. In the present study, instead of considering infinitely long-time scale, we aim to provide a general framework to understand the long but finite time behavior, namely the transient dynamics. In our analysis, we focus on the Floquet–Magnus (FM) expansion that gives a formal expression of the effective Hamiltonian onmore » the system. Although in general the full series expansion is not convergent in the thermodynamics limit, we give a clear relationship between the FM expansion and the transient dynamics. More precisely, we rigorously show that a truncated version of the FM expansion accurately describes the exact dynamics for a certain time-scale. Our theory reveals an experimental time-scale for which non-trivial dynamical phenomena can be reliably observed. We discuss several dynamical phenomena, such as the effect of small integrability breaking, efficient numerical simulation of periodically driven systems, dynamical localization and thermalization. Especially on thermalization, we discuss a generic scenario on the prethermalization phenomenon in periodically driven systems. -- Highlights: •A general framework to describe transient dynamics for periodically driven systems. •The theory is applicable to generic quantum many-body systems including long-range interacting systems. •Physical meaning of the truncation of the Floquet–Magnus expansion is rigorously established. •New mechanism of the prethermalization is proposed. •Revealing an experimental time-scale for which non-trivial dynamical phenomena can be reliably observed.« less

Power and Scour: Laboratory simulations of tsunami-induced scour

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todd, David; McGovern, David; Whitehouse, Richard; Harris, John; Rossetto, Tiziana

2017-04-01

The world's coastal regions are becoming increasingly urbanised and densely populated. Recent major tsunami events in regions such as Samoa (2007), Indonesia (2004, 2006, 2010), and Japan (2011) have starkly highlighted this effect, resulting in catastrophic loss of both life and property, with much of the damage to buildings being reported in EEFIT mission reports following each of these events. The URBANWAVES project, led by UCL in collaboration with HR Wallingford, brings the power of the tsunami to the laboratory for the first time. The Pneumatic Tsunami Simulator is capable of tsimulating both idealised and real-world tsunami traces at a scale of 1:50. Experiments undertaken in the Fast Flow Facility at HR Wallingford using square and rectangular buildings placed on a sediment bed have allow us to measure, for the first time under laboratory conditions, the variations in the flow field around buildings produced by tsunami waves as a result of the scour process. The results of these tests are presented, providing insight into the process of scour development under different types of tsunami, giving a glimpse into the power of tsunamis that have already occurred, and helping us to inform the designs of future buildings so that we can be better prepared to analyse and design against these failure modes in the future. Additional supporting abstracts include Foster et al., on tsunami induced building loads; Chandler et al., on the tsunami simulation concept and McGovern et al., on the simulation of tsunami-driven scour and flow fields.

Gyrokinetic Particle Simulations of Neoclassical Transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Zhihong

A time varying weighting (delta f) scheme based on the small gyro-radius ordering is developed and applied to a steady state, multi-species gyrokinetic particle simulation of neoclassical transport. Accurate collision operators conserving momentum and energy are developed and implemented. Benchmark simulation results using these operators are found to agree very well with neoclassical theory. For example, it is dynamically demonstrated that like-particle collisions produce no particle flux and that the neoclassical fluxes are ambipolar for an ion -electron plasma. An important physics feature of the present scheme is the introduction of toroidal flow to the simulations. In agreement with the existing analytical neoclassical theory, ion energy flux is enhanced by the toroidal mass flow and the neoclassical viscosity is a Pfirsch-Schluter factor times the classical viscosity in the banana regime. In addition, the poloidal electric field associated with toroidal mass flow is found to enhance density gradient driven electron particle flux and the bootstrap current while reducing temperature gradient driven flux and current. Modifications of the neoclassical transport by the orbit squeezing effects due to the radial electric field associated with sheared toroidal flow are studied. Simulation results indicate a reduction of both ion thermal flux and neoclassical toroidal rotation. Neoclassical theory in the steep gradient profile regime, where conventional neoclassical theory fails, is examined by taking into account finite banana width effects. The relevance of these studies to interesting experimental conditions in tokamaks is discussed. Finally, the present numerical scheme is extended to general geometry equilibrium. This new formulation will be valuable for the development of new capabilities to address complex equilibria such as advanced stellarator configurations and possibly other alternate concepts for the magnetic confinement of plasmas. In general, the present work demonstrates a valuable new capability for studying important aspects of neoclassical transport inaccessible by conventional analytical calculation processes.

Is the "sterile cockpit" concept applicable to cardiovascular surgery critical intervals or critical events? The impact of protocol-driven communication during cardiopulmonary bypass.

PubMed

Wadhera, Rishi K; Parker, Sarah Henrickson; Burkhart, Harold M; Greason, Kevin L; Neal, James R; Levenick, Katherine M; Wiegmann, Douglas A; Sundt, Thoralf M

2010-02-01

There is general enthusiasm for applying strategies from aviation directly to medical care; the application of the "sterile cockpit" rule to surgery has accordingly been suggested. An implicit prerequisite to the evidence-based transfer of such a concept to the clinical domain, however, is definition of periods of high mental workload analogous to takeoff and landing. We measured cognitive demands among operating room staff, mapped critical events, and evaluated protocol-driven communication. With the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Task Load Index and semistructured focus groups, we identified common critical stages of cardiac surgical cases. Intraoperative communication was assessed before (n = 18) and after (n = 16) introduction of a structured communication protocol. Cognitive workload measures demonstrated high temporal diversity among caregivers in various roles. Eight critical events during cardiopulmonary bypass were then defined. A structured, unambiguous verbal communication protocol for these events was then implemented. Observations of 18 cases before implementation including 29.6 hours of cardiopulmonary bypass with 632 total communication exchanges (average 35.1 exchanges/case) were compared with observations of 16 cases after implementation including 23.9 hours of cardiopulmonary bypass with 748 exchanges (average 46.8 exchanges/case, P = .06). Frequency of communication breakdowns per case decreased significantly after implementation (11.5 vs 7.3 breakdowns/case, P = .008). Because of wide variations is cognitive workload among caregivers, effective communication can be structured around critical events rather than defined intervals analogous to the sterile cockpit, with reduction in communication breakdowns. 2010 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Diffuse Interplanetary Radio Emission (DIRE) Accompanying Type II Radio Bursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teklu, T. B.; Gopalswamy, N.; Makela, P. A.; Yashiro, S.; Akiyama, S.; Xie, H.

2015-12-01

We report on an unusual drifting feature in the radio dynamic spectra at frequencies below 14 MHz observed by the Radio and Plasma Wave (WAVES) experiment on board the Wind spacecraft. We call this feature as "Diffuse Interplanetary Radio Emission (DIRE)". The DIRE events are generally associated with intense interplanetary type II radio bursts produced by shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). DIREs drift like type II bursts in the dynamic spectra, but the drifting feature consist of a series of short-duration spikes (similar to a type I chain). DIREs occur at higher frequencies than the associated type II bursts, with no harmonic relationship with the type II burst. The onset of DIREs is delayed by several hours from the onset of the eruption. Comparing the radio dynamic spectra with white-light observations from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission, we find that the CMEs are generally very energetic (fast and mostly halos). We suggest that the DIRE source is typically located at the flanks of the CME-driven shock that is still at lower heliocentric distances.

Men who have sex with men more often chose daily than event-driven use of pre-exposure prophylaxis: baseline analysis of a demonstration study in Amsterdam.

PubMed

Hoornenborg, Elske; Achterbergh, Roel Ca; van der Loeff, Maarten F Schim; Davidovich, Udi; van der Helm, Jannie J; Hogewoning, Arjan; van Duijnhoven, Yvonne Thp; Sonder, Gerard Jb; de Vries, Henry Jc; Prins, Maria

2018-03-01

The Amsterdam PrEP project is a prospective, open-label demonstration study at a large sexually transmitted infection (STI) clinic. We examined the uptake of PrEP; the baseline characteristics of men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender persons initiating PrEP; their choices of daily versus event-driven PrEP and the determinants of these choices. From August 2015 through May 2016, enrolment took place at the STI clinic of the Public Health Service of Amsterdam, the Netherlands. MSM or transgender persons were eligible if they had at least one risk factor for HIV infection within the preceding six months. Participants were offered a choice between daily or event-driven use of tenofovir/emtricitabine. Baseline data were analysed using descriptive statistics and multivariable analysis was employed to determine variables associated with daily versus event-driven PrEP. Online applications were submitted by 870 persons, of whom 587 were invited for a screening visit. Of them, 415 were screened for eligibility and 376 initiated PrEP. One quarter (103/376, 27%) chose event-driven PrEP. Prevalence of bacterial STI was 19.0% and mean condomless anal sex (CAS) episodes in the preceding three months were 11. In multivariable analysis, older age (≥45 vs. ≤34, aOR 2.1, 95% CI 1.2 to 3.9), being involved in a steady relationship (aOR 1.7, 95% CI 1.0 to 2.7), no other daily medication use (aOR 0.6, 95% CI 0.3 to 0.9), and fewer episodes of CAS (per log increase aOR 0.7, 95% CI 0.6 to 0.9) were determinants for choosing event-driven PrEP. PrEP programmes are becoming one of the more important intervention strategies with the goal of reducing incident HIV-infection and we were unable to accommodate many of the persons applying for this study. Offering a choice of dosing regimen to PrEP users may enable further personalization of HIV prevention strategies and enhance up-take, adherence and cost-effectiveness. The majority of participants preferred daily versus event-driven use. Within this majority, a high number of CAS episodes before PrEP initiation was reported and we observed a high prevalence of STI. Determinants of choosing event-driven PrEP were older age, fewer CAS episodes, no other daily medication use, and involved in a steady relationship. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of the International AIDS Society published by John Wiley & sons Ltd on behalf of the International AIDS Society.

Nowcasting, forecasting and hindcasting Harvey and Irma inundation in near-real time using a continental 2D hydrodynamic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampson, C. C.; Wing, O.; Quinn, N.; Smith, A.; Neal, J. C.; Schumann, G.; Bates, P.

2017-12-01

During an ongoing natural disaster data are required on: (1) the current situation (nowcast); (2) its likely immediate evolution (forecast); and (3) a consistent view post-event of what actually happened (hindcast or reanalysis). We describe methods used to achieve all three tasks for flood inundation during the Harvey and Irma events using a continental scale 2D hydrodynamic model (Wing et al., 2017). The model solves the local inertial form of the Shallow Water equations over a regular grid of 1 arcsecond ( 30m). Terrain data are taken from the USGS National Elevation Dataset with known flood defences represented using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers National Levee Dataset. Channels are treated as sub-grid scale features using the HydroSHEDS global hydrography data set. The model is driven using river flows, rainfall and coastal water levels. It simulates river flooding in basins > 50 km2, and fluvial and coastal flooding everywhere. Previous wide area validation tests show this model to be capable of matching FEMA maps and USGS local models built with bespoke data with hit rates of 86% and 92% respectively (Wing et al., 2017). Boundary conditions were taken from NOAA QPS data to produce nowcast and forecast simulations in near real time, before updating with NOAA observations to produce the hindcast. During the event simulation results were supplied to major insurers and multi-nationals who used them to estimate their likely capital exposure and to mitigate flood damage to their infrastructure whilst the event was underway. Simulations were validated against modelled flood footprints computed by FEMA and USACE, and composite satellite imagery produced by the Dartmouth Flood Observatory. For the Harvey event, hit rates ranged from 60-84% against these data sources, but a lack of metadata meant it was difficult to perform like-for-like comparisons. The satellite data also appeared to miss known flooding in urban areas that was picked up in the models. Despite these limitations, the validation was able to pick our areas, notably along the Colorado River near Houston, where our model under-performed and identify areas for future development. The study shows that high resolution near real-time inundation predictions over very large areas during complex events with multiple flood drivers are now a reality.

Boulder Dislodgment Reloaded: New insights from boulder transport and dislodgement by tsunamis and storms from three-dimensional numerical simulations with GPUSPH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiss, R.; Zainali, A.

2014-12-01

Boulders can be found on many coastlines around the globe. They are generally thought to be moved either during coastal storms or tsunamis because they are too heavy to be moved by more common marine or coastal processes. To understand storm and tsunami risk at given coastline, the event histories of both events need to be separated to produce a robust event statistics for quantitative risk analyses. Because boulders are most likely only moved by coastal storms or tsunamis, they are very suitable to produce the data basis for such event statistics. Boulder transport problem has been approached by comparing the driving with resisting forces acting on a boulder. However, we argue that this approach is not sufficient because the comparison of resisting and driving forces only constitutes boulder motion, but not for boulder dislodgment. Boulder motion means that the boulder starts to move out of its pocket. However, this motion does not guarantee that the boulder will reach the critical dislodgment position. Boulder dislodgment is a necessary condition to identify whether or not a boulder has moved. For boulder dislodgement, an equation of motion is needed, and that equation is Newtons Second Law of Motion (NSL). We perform fully coupled three-dimensional numerical simulation of boulders moved by waves where the boulders move according to NSL. Our numerical simulations are the first of their kind applied to tsunami and storm boulder motion. They show how storm and tsunami waves interact with boulders in a more realistic physical setting, and highlight the importance of submergence. Based on our simulations we perform a dimensional analysis that identifies the Froude number as important parameter, which can be considered large only in the front of tsunami waves, but small in the rest of tsunami wave and also generally small in storm waves. From a general point of view, our results indicate that the boulder transport problem is more complex than recently considered, and more variables need to be considered in inversions of the wave characteristics from moved boulders. However, numerical simulations are an incredible powerful and flexible tool with which more robust and more correct techniques to invert wave characteristics from moved boulders can be developed. Our analyses of the Froude number and submergence are positive indicators.

A Deep Space Orbit Determination Software: Overview and Event Prediction Capability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Youngkwang; Park, Sang-Young; Lee, Eunji; Kim, Minsik

2017-06-01

This paper presents an overview of deep space orbit determination software (DSODS), as well as validation and verification results on its event prediction capabilities. DSODS was developed in the MATLAB object-oriented programming environment to support the Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO) mission. DSODS has three major capabilities: celestial event prediction for spacecraft, orbit determination with deep space network (DSN) tracking data, and DSN tracking data simulation. To achieve its functionality requirements, DSODS consists of four modules: orbit propagation (OP), event prediction (EP), data simulation (DS), and orbit determination (OD) modules. This paper explains the highest-level data flows between modules in event prediction, orbit determination, and tracking data simulation processes. Furthermore, to address the event prediction capability of DSODS, this paper introduces OP and EP modules. The role of the OP module is to handle time and coordinate system conversions, to propagate spacecraft trajectories, and to handle the ephemerides of spacecraft and celestial bodies. Currently, the OP module utilizes the General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) as a third-party software component for highfidelity deep space propagation, as well as time and coordinate system conversions. The role of the EP module is to predict celestial events, including eclipses, and ground station visibilities, and this paper presents the functionality requirements of the EP module. The validation and verification results show that, for most cases, event prediction errors were less than 10 millisec when compared with flight proven mission analysis tools such as GMAT and Systems Tool Kit (STK). Thus, we conclude that DSODS is capable of predicting events for the KPLO in real mission applications.

Simulation of tropospheric chemistry and aerosols with the climate model EC-Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Noije, T. P. C.; Le Sager, P.; Segers, A. J.; van Velthoven, P. F. J.; Krol, M. C.; Hazeleger, W.

2014-03-01

We have integrated the atmospheric chemistry and transport model TM5 into the global climate model EC-Earth version 2.4. We present an overview of the TM5 model and the two-way data exchange between TM5 and the integrated forecasting system (IFS) model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the atmospheric general circulation model of EC-Earth. In this paper we evaluate the simulation of tropospheric chemistry and aerosols in a one-way coupled configuration. We have carried out a decadal simulation for present-day conditions and calculated chemical budgets and climatologies of tracer concentrations and aerosol optical depth. For comparison we have also performed offline simulations driven by meteorological fields from ECMWF's ERA-Interim reanalysis and output from the EC-Earth model itself. Compared to the offline simulations, the online-coupled system produces more efficient vertical mixing in the troposphere, which likely reflects an improvement of the treatment of cumulus convection. The chemistry in the EC-Earth simulations is affected by the fact that the current version of EC-Earth produces a cold bias with too dry air in large parts of the troposphere. Compared to the ERA-Interim driven simulation, the oxidizing capacity in EC-Earth is lower in the tropics and higher in the extratropics. The methane lifetime is 7% higher in EC-Earth, but remains well within the range reported in the literature. We evaluate the model by comparing the simulated climatologies of surface carbon monoxide, tropospheric and surface ozone, and aerosol optical depth against observational data. The work presented in this study is the first step in the development of EC-Earth into an Earth system model with fully interactive atmospheric chemistry and aerosols.

On simulating large earthquakes by Green's-function addition of smaller earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joyner, William B.; Boore, David M.

Simulation of ground motion from large earthquakes has been attempted by a number of authors using small earthquakes (subevents) as Green's functions and summing them, generally in a random way. We present a simple model for the random summation of subevents to illustrate how seismic scaling relations can be used to constrain methods of summation. In the model η identical subevents are added together with their start times randomly distributed over the source duration T and their waveforms scaled by a factor κ. The subevents can be considered to be distributed on a fault with later start times at progressively greater distances from the focus, simulating the irregular propagation of a coherent rupture front. For simplicity the distance between source and observer is assumed large compared to the source dimensions of the simulated event. By proper choice of η and κ the spectrum of the simulated event deduced from these assumptions can be made to conform at both low- and high-frequency limits to any arbitrary seismic scaling law. For the ω -squared model with similarity (that is, with constant Moƒ3o scaling, where ƒo is the corner frequency), the required values are η = (Mo/Moe)4/3 and κ = (Mo/Moe)-1/3, where Mo is moment of the simulated event and Moe is the moment of the subevent. The spectra resulting from other choices of η and κ, will not conform at both high and low frequency. If η is determined by the ratio of the rupture area of the simulated event to that of the subevent and κ = 1, the simulated spectrum will conform at high frequency to the ω-squared model with similarity, but not at low frequency. Because the high-frequency part of the spectrum is generally the important part for engineering applications, however, this choice of values for η and κ may be satisfactory in many cases. If η is determined by the ratio of the moment of the simulated event to that of the subevent and κ = 1, the simulated spectrum will conform at low frequency to the ω-squared model with similarity, but not at high frequency. Interestingly, the high-frequency scaling implied by this latter choice of η and κ corresponds to an ω-squared model with constant Moƒ4o—a scaling law proposed by Nuttli, although questioned recently by Haar and others. Simple scaling with κ equal to unity and η equal to the moment ratio would work if the high-frequency spectral decay were ω-1.5 instead of ω-2. Just the required decay is exhibited by the stochastic source model recently proposed by Joynet, if the dislocation-time function is deconvolved out of the spectrum. Simulated motions derived from such source models could be used as subevents rather than recorded motions as is usually done. This strategy is a promising approach to simulation of ground motion from an extended rupture.

Quantum interference and Monte Carlo simulations of multiparticle production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bialas, A.; Krzywicki, A.

1995-02-01

We show that the effects of quantum interference can be implemented in Monte Carlo generators by modelling the generalized Wigner functions. A specific prescription for an appropriate modification of the weights of events produced by standard generators is proposed.

Cybersim: geographic, temporal, and organizational dynamics of malware propagation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Santhi, Nandakishore; Yan, Guanhua; Eidenbenz, Stephan

2010-01-01

Cyber-infractions into a nation's strategic security envelope pose a constant and daunting challenge. We present the modular CyberSim tool which has been developed in response to the need to realistically simulate at a national level, software vulnerabilities and resulting mal ware propagation in online social networks. CyberSim suite (a) can generate realistic scale-free networks from a database of geocoordinated computers to closely model social networks arising from personal and business email contacts and online communities; (b) maintains for each,bost a list of installed software, along with the latest published vulnerabilities; (d) allows designated initial nodes where malware gets introduced; (e)more » simulates, using distributed discrete event-driven technology, the spread of malware exploiting a specific vulnerability, with packet delay and user online behavior models; (f) provides a graphical visualization of spread of infection, its severity, businesses affected etc to the analyst. We present sample simulations on a national level network with millions of computers.« less

Continental-scale temperature covariance in proxy reconstructions and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartl-Meier, Claudia; Büntgen, Ulf; Smerdon, Jason; Zorita, Eduardo; Krusic, Paul; Ljungqvist, Fredrik; Schneider, Lea; Esper, Jan

2017-04-01

Inter-continental temperature variability over the past millennium has been reported to be more coherent in climate model simulations than in multi-proxy-based reconstructions, a finding that undermines the representation of spatial variability in either of these approaches. We assess the covariance of summer temperatures among Northern Hemisphere continents by comparing tree-ring based temperature reconstructions with state-of-the-art climate model simulations over the past millennium. We find inter-continental temperature covariance to be larger in tree-ring-only reconstructions compared to those derived from multi-proxy networks, thus enhancing the agreement between proxy- and model-based spatial representations. A detailed comparison of simulated temperatures, however, reveals substantial spread among the models. Over the past millennium, inter-continental temperature correlations are driven by the cooling after major volcanic eruptions in 1257, 1452, 1601, and 1815. The coherence of these synchronizing events appears to be elevated in several climate simulations relative to their own covariance baselines and the proxy reconstructions, suggesting these models overestimate the amplitude of cooling in response to volcanic forcing at large spatial scales.

A generalized framework for nucleosynthesis calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sprouse, Trevor; Mumpower, Matthew; Aprahamian, Ani

2014-09-01

Simulating astrophysical events is a difficult process, requiring a detailed pairing of knowledge from both astrophysics and nuclear physics. Astrophysics guides the thermodynamic evolution of an astrophysical event. We present a nucleosynthesis framework written in Fortran that combines as inputs a thermodynamic evolution and nuclear data to time evolve the abundances of nuclear species. Through our coding practices, we have emphasized the applicability of our framework to any astrophysical event, including those involving nuclear fission. Because these calculations are often very complicated, our framework dynamically optimizes itself based on the conditions at each time step in order to greatly minimize total computation time. To highlight the power of this new approach, we demonstrate the use of our framework to simulate both Big Bang nucleosynthesis and r-process nucleosynthesis with speeds competitive with current solutions dedicated to either process alone.

Clustering of European winter storms: A multi-model perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renggli, Dominik; Buettner, Annemarie; Scherb, Anke; Straub, Daniel; Zimmerli, Peter

2016-04-01

The storm series over Europe in 1990 (Daria, Vivian, Wiebke, Herta) and 1999 (Anatol, Lothar, Martin) are very well known. Such clusters of severe events strongly affect the seasonally accumulated damage statistics. The (re)insurance industry has quantified clustering by using distribution assumptions deduced from the historical storm activity of the last 30 to 40 years. The use of storm series simulated by climate models has only started recently. Climate model runs can potentially represent 100s to 1000s of years, allowing a more detailed quantification of clustering than the history of the last few decades. However, it is unknown how sensitive the representation of clustering is to systematic biases. Using a multi-model ensemble allows quantifying that uncertainty. This work uses CMIP5 decadal ensemble hindcasts to study clustering of European winter storms from a multi-model perspective. An objective identification algorithm extracts winter storms (September to April) in the gridded 6-hourly wind data. Since the skill of European storm predictions is very limited on the decadal scale, the different hindcast runs are interpreted as independent realizations. As a consequence, the available hindcast ensemble represents several 1000 simulated storm seasons. The seasonal clustering of winter storms is quantified using the dispersion coefficient. The benchmark for the decadal prediction models is the 20th Century Reanalysis. The decadal prediction models are able to reproduce typical features of the clustering characteristics observed in the reanalysis data. Clustering occurs in all analyzed models over the North Atlantic and European region, in particular over Great Britain and Scandinavia as well as over Iberia (i.e. the exit regions of the North Atlantic storm track). Clustering is generally weaker in the models compared to reanalysis, although the differences between different models are substantial. In contrast to existing studies, clustering is driven by weak and moderate events, and not by extreme storms. Thus, the decision which climate model to use to quantify clustering can have a substantial impact on the risk assessment in the (re)insurance business.

Atmospheric river influence on the intensification of extreme hydrologic events over the Western United States under climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagán, Brianna; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Nayak, Munir; Rastogi, Deeksha; Margulis, Steven; Pal, Jeremy

2017-04-01

The Western United States shares limited snowmelt driven water supplies amongst millions of people, a multi-billion dollar agriculture industry and fragile ecosystems. The climatology of the region is highly variable, characterized by the frequent occurrences of both flood and drought conditions that cause increasingly challenging water management issues. Although variable year to year, up to half of California's total precipitation can be linked to atmospheric rivers (ARs). Most notably, ARs have been connected to nearly every major historic flood in the region, establishing its critical role to water supply. Numerous prior studies have considered potential climate change impacts over the Western United States and have generally concluded that warmer temperatures will reduce snowpack and shift runoff timing, causing reductions to water supply. Here we examine the role of ARs as one mechanism for explaining projected increases in flood and drought frequency and intensity under climate change scenarios, vital information for water resource managers. A hierarchical modeling framework to downscale 11 coupled global climate models from CMIP5 is used to form an ensemble of high-resolution dynamically downscaled regional climate model (via RegCM4) simulations at 18-km and hydrological (via VIC) simulations at a 4-km resolution for baseline (1965-2005) and future (2010-2050) periods under RCP 8.5. Each ensemble member's ability to capture observational AR climatology over the baseline period is evaluated. Baseline to future period changes to AR size, duration, seasonal timing, trajectory, magnitude and frequency are presented. These changes to the characterizations of ARs in the region are used to determine if any links exist to changes in snowpack volume, runoff timing, and the occurrence of daily and annual cumulative extreme precipitation and runoff events. Shifts in extreme AR frequency and magnitude are expected to increase flood risks, which without adequate multi-year reservoir storage solutions could further strain water supply resources.

Impacts of Non-Stationarity in Climate on Flood Intensity-Duration-Frequency: Case Studies in Mountainous Areas with Snowmelt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Z.; Ren, H.; Sun, N.; Leung, L. R.; Liu, Y.; Coleman, A. M.; Skaggs, R.; Wigmosta, M. S.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic engineering design usually involves intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) analysis for calculating runoff from a design storm of specified precipitation frequency and duration using event-based hydrologic rainfall-runoff models. Traditionally, the procedure assumes climate stationarity and neglects snowmelt-driven runoff contribution to floods. In this study, we used high resolution climate simulations to provide inputs to the physics-based Distributed Hydrology Soil and Vegetation Model (DHSVM) to determine the spatially distributed precipitation and snowmelt available for runoff. Climate model outputs were extracted around different mountainous field sites in Colorado and California. IDF curves were generated at each numerical grid of DHSVM based on the simulated precipitation, temperature, and available water for runoff. Quantitative evaluation of trending and stationarity tests were conducted to identify (quasi-)stationary time periods for reliable IDF analysis. The impact of stationarity was evaluated by comparing the derived IDF attributes with respect to time windows of different length and level of stationarity. Spatial mapping of event return-period was performed for various design storms, and spatial mapping of event intensity was performed for given duration and return periods. IDF characteristics were systematically compared (historical vs RCP4.5 vs RCP8.5) using annual maximum series vs partial duration series data with the goal of providing reliable IDF analyses to support hydrologic engineering design.

Radial Diffusion study of the 1 June 2013 CME event using MHD simulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patel, M.; Hudson, M.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Li, Z.; Boyd, A. J.

2016-12-01

The June 1, 2013 storm was a CME-shock driven geomagnetic storm (Dst = -119 nT) that caused a dropout affecting all radiation belt electron energies measured by the Energetic Particle, Composition and Thermal Plasma Suite (ECT) instrument on Van Allen Probes at higher L-shells following dynamic pressure enhancement in the solar wind. Lower energies (up to about 700 keV) were enhanced by the storm while MeV electrons were depleted throughout the belt. We focus on depletion through radial diffusion caused by the enhanced ULF wave activity due to the CME-shock. This study utilities the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) model, a 3D global magnetospheric simulation code based on the ideal MHD equations, coupled with the Magnetosphere Ionosphere Coupler (MIX) and Rice Convection Model (RCM). The MHD electric and magnetic fields with equations described by Fei et al. [JGR, 2006] are used to calculate radial diffusion coefficients (DLL). These DLL values are input into a radial diffusion code to recreate the dropouts observed by the Van Allen Probes. The importance of understanding the complex role that ULF waves play in radial transport and the effects of CME-driven storms on the relativistic energy electrons in the radiation belts can be accomplished using MHD simulations to obtain diffusion coefficients, initial phase space density and the outer boundary condition from the ECT instrument suite and a radial diffusion model to reproduce observed fluxes which compare favorably with Van Allen Probes ECT measurements.

Modeling of damage driven fracture failure of fiber post-restored teeth.

PubMed

Xu, Binting; Wang, Yining; Li, Qing

2015-09-01

Mechanical failure of biomaterials, which can be initiated by either violent force, or progressive stress fatigue, is a serious issue. Great efforts have been made to improve the mechanical performances of dental restorations. Virtual simulation is a promising approach for biomechanical investigations, which presents significant advantages in improving efficiency than traditional in vivo/in vitro studies. Over the past few decades, a number of virtual studies have been conducted to investigate the biomechanical issues concerning dental biomaterials, but only with limited incorporation of brittle failure phenomena. Motivated by the contradictory findings between several finite element analyses and common clinical observations on the fracture resistance of post-restored teeth, this study aimed to provide an approach using numerical simulations for investigating the fracture failure process through a non-linear fracture mechanics model. The ability of this approach to predict fracture initiation and propagation in a complex biomechanical status based on the intrinsic material properties was investigated. Results of the virtual simulations matched the findings of experimental tests, in terms of the ultimate fracture failure strengths and predictive areas under risk of clinical failure. This study revealed that the failure of dental post-restored restorations is a typical damage-driven continuum-to-discrete process. This approach is anticipated to have ramifications not only for modeling fracture events, but also for the design and optimization of the mechanical properties of biomaterials for specific clinically determined requirements. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Angular momentum transport by heat-driven g-modes in slowly pulsating B stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Townsend, R. H. D.; Goldstein, J.; Zweibel, E. G.

2018-03-01

Motivated by recent interest in the phenomenon of waves transport in massive stars, we examine whether the heat-driven gravity (g) modes excited in slowly pulsating B (SPB) stars can significantly modify the stars' internal rotation. We develop a formalism for the differential torque exerted by g modes, and implement this formalism using the GYRE oscillation code and the MESASTAR stellar evolution code. Focusing first on a 4.21M⊙ model, we simulate 1 000 yr of stellar evolution under the combined effects of the torque due to a single unstable prograde g mode (with an amplitude chosen on the basis of observational constraints), and diffusive angular momentum transport due to convection, overshooting, and rotational instabilities. We find that the g mode rapidly extracts angular momentum from the surface layers, depositing it deeper in the stellar interior. The angular momentum transport is so efficient that by the end of the simulation, the initially non-rotating surface layers are spun in the retrograde direction to ≈ 30 per cent of the critical rate. However, the additional inclusion of magnetic stresses in our simulations almost completely inhibits this spin-up. Expanding our simulations to cover the whole instability strip, we show that the same general behaviour is seen in all SPB stars. After providing some caveats to contextualize our results, we hypothesize that the observed slower surface rotation of SPB stars (as compared to other B-type stars) may be the direct consequence of the angular momentum transport that our simulations demonstrate.

A role for land surface forcing of North Atlantic climate and isotope signals during the 8.2kyr event?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopcroft, Peter; Valdes, Paul

2014-05-01

An important example of abrupt climate change occurred 8200 years ago in the North Atlantic and is generally known as the 8.2kyr event. This abrupt ~160 year cooling appears to coincide with the final drainage of the ice-dammed Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway. The resultant influx of meltwater to the North Atlantic is assumed to have perturbed the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation, reducing northward heat transport and causing widespread cooling. Numerous lines of evidence support this theory, with reconstructions showing changes in deep water formation, reductions in salinity and evidence of sea-level rise. Coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulations driven with realistic estimates of the meltwater flux show a regional cooling but fail to replicate the duration or the magnitude of this event in comparison with proxy archives. Meltwater injection was not the only rapid climate forcing in operation at this time. Drainage of the pro-glacial lakes would have had a profound effect on the boundary layer heat fluxes over North America, with potential teleconnections further afield. In this work we use an isotope-enabled version of the coupled GCM HadCM3 with boundary conditions appropriate for the time period of 9kyr (including ice sheets, greenhouse gases and orbital parameters). This model tracks oxygen isotopes throughout the hydrological cycle allowing more robust comparison with proxy archives. We analyse the impact of the removal of a lake area corresponding to Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway at this time and present sensitivity tests designed to analyse the contributions from lake removal, orographic change and the assumed isotopic content of the pro-glacial lakes. The results show a distinct pattern of cooling across North America (in the annual mean) with an apparent teleconnection to the Barents Sea, where there is warming associated with sea-ice reduction. The isotopic implications depend on the initial isotopic content of the pro-glacial lake. Assuming a uniform value of -30 permille, the δ18O of precipitation anomaly shows reasonably strong deviations across different parts of the North Atlantic region implying a possible contribution to signals detected in proxy archives. These results raise the possibility that land surface changes associated with abrupt climate change events might be more important than previously assumed.

MDR/Omni-band Reconfigurable Terminal: Design Concept

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-09-01

tasks, data bases and major communications flows. Global issues relevant to most of the blocks are then covered. Finally the planned sequence of...and event logger that are detailed in later paragraphs. The BITE(built-in test equipment)/Debugger detail can be found separately in the Global Issues paragraphs...conditions. Every part of the simulator has a BITE/Debugger component, the general description of which is given in Global Issues . Simulator control

Where Tori Fear to Tread: Hypermassive Neutron Star Remnants and Absolute Event Horizons or Topics in Computational General Relativity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaplan, Jeffrey Daniel

2014-01-01

Computational general relativity is a field of study which has reached maturity only within the last decade. This thesis details several studies that elucidate phenomena related to the coalescence of compact object binaries. Chapters 2 and 3 recounts work towards developing new analytical tools for visualizing and reasoning about dynamics in strongly curved spacetimes. In both studies, the results employ analogies with the classical theory of electricity and magnetism, first (Ch. 2) in the post-Newtonian approximation to general relativity and then (Ch. 3) in full general relativity though in the absence of matter sources. In Chapter 4, we examine the topological structure of absolute event horizons during binary black hole merger simulations conducted with the SpEC code. Chapter 6 reports on the progress of the SpEC code in simulating the coalescence of neutron star-neutron star binaries, while Chapter 7 tests the effects of various numerical gauge conditions on the robustness of black hole formation from stellar collapse in SpEC. In Chapter 5, we examine the nature of pseudospectral expansions of non-smooth functions motivated by the need to simulate the stellar surface in Chapters 6 and 7. In Chapter 8, we study how thermal effects in the nuclear equation of state effect the equilibria and stability of hypermassive neutron stars. Chapter 9 presents supplements to the work in Chapter 8, including an examination of the stability question raised in Chapter 8 in greater mathematical detail.

Consistent data-driven computational mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, D.; Chinesta, F.; Cueto, E.

2018-05-01

We present a novel method, within the realm of data-driven computational mechanics, to obtain reliable and thermodynamically sound simulation from experimental data. We thus avoid the need to fit any phenomenological model in the construction of the simulation model. This kind of techniques opens unprecedented possibilities in the framework of data-driven application systems and, particularly, in the paradigm of industry 4.0.

HEPPA-II model-measurement intercomparison project: EPP indirect effects during the dynamically perturbed NH winter 2008-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funke, Bernd; Ball, William; Bender, Stefan; Gardini, Angela; Harvey, V. Lynn; Lambert, Alyn; López-Puertas, Manuel; Marsh, Daniel R.; Meraner, Katharina; Nieder, Holger; Päivärinta, Sanna-Mari; Pérot, Kristell; Randall, Cora E.; Reddmann, Thomas; Rozanov, Eugene; Schmidt, Hauke; Seppälä, Annika; Sinnhuber, Miriam; Sukhodolov, Timofei; Stiller, Gabriele P.; Tsvetkova, Natalia D.; Verronen, Pekka T.; Versick, Stefan; von Clarmann, Thomas; Walker, Kaley A.; Yushkov, Vladimir

2017-03-01

We compare simulations from three high-top (with upper lid above 120 km) and five medium-top (with upper lid around 80 km) atmospheric models with observations of odd nitrogen (NOx = NO + NO2), temperature, and carbon monoxide from seven satellite instruments (ACE-FTS on SciSat, GOMOS, MIPAS, and SCIAMACHY on Envisat, MLS on Aura, SABER on TIMED, and SMR on Odin) during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar winter 2008/2009. The models included in the comparison are the 3-D chemistry transport model 3dCTM, the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, FinROSE, the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA), the Karlsruhe Simulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere (KASIMA), the modelling tools for SOlar Climate Ozone Links studies (SOCOL and CAO-SOCOL), and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). The comparison focuses on the energetic particle precipitation (EPP) indirect effect, that is, the polar winter descent of NOx largely produced by EPP in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. A particular emphasis is given to the impact of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2009 and the subsequent elevated stratopause (ES) event associated with enhanced descent of mesospheric air. The chemistry climate model simulations have been nudged toward reanalysis data in the troposphere and stratosphere while being unconstrained above. An odd nitrogen upper boundary condition obtained from MIPAS observations has further been applied to medium-top models. Most models provide a good representation of the mesospheric tracer descent in general, and the EPP indirect effect in particular, during the unperturbed (pre-SSW) period of the NH winter 2008/2009. The observed NOx descent into the lower mesosphere and stratosphere is generally reproduced within 20 %. Larger discrepancies of a few model simulations could be traced back either to the impact of the models' gravity wave drag scheme on the polar wintertime meridional circulation or to a combination of prescribed NOx mixing ratio at the uppermost model layer and low vertical resolution. In March-April, after the ES event, however, modelled mesospheric and stratospheric NOx distributions deviate significantly from the observations. The too-fast and early downward propagation of the NOx tongue, encountered in most simulations, coincides with a temperature high bias in the lower mesosphere (0.2-0.05 hPa), likely caused by an overestimation of descent velocities. In contrast, upper-mesospheric temperatures (at 0.05-0.001 hPa) are generally underestimated by the high-top models after the onset of the ES event, being indicative for too-slow descent and hence too-low NOx fluxes. As a consequence, the magnitude of the simulated NOx tongue is generally underestimated by these models. Descending NOx amounts simulated with medium-top models are on average closer to the observations but show a large spread of up to several hundred percent. This is primarily attributed to the different vertical model domains in which the NOx upper boundary condition is applied. In general, the intercomparison demonstrates the ability of state-of-the-art atmospheric models to reproduce the EPP indirect effect in dynamically and geomagnetically quiescent NH winter conditions. The encountered differences between observed and simulated NOx, CO, and temperature distributions during the perturbed phase of the 2009 NH winter, however, emphasize the need for model improvements in the dynamical representation of elevated stratopause events in order to allow for a better description of the EPP indirect effect under these particular conditions.

Climate Change Impacts on Peak Electricity Consumption: US vs. Europe.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auffhammer, M.

2016-12-01

It has been suggested that climate change impacts on the electric sector will account for the majority of global economic damages by the end of the current century and beyond. This finding is at odds with the relatively modest increase in climate driven impacts on consumption. Comprehensive high frequency load balancing authority level data have not been used previously to parameterize the relationship between electric demand and temperature for any major economy. Using statistical models we analyze multi-year data from load balancing authorities in the United States of America and the European Union, which are responsible for more than 90% of the electricity delivered to residential, industrial, commercial and agricultural customers. We couple the estimated response functions between total daily consumption and daily peak load with an ensemble of downscaled GCMs from the CMIP5 archive to simulate climate change driven impacts on both outcomes. We show moderate and highly spatially heterogeneous changes in consumption. The results of our peak load simulations, however, suggest significant changes in the intensity and frequency of peak events throughout the United States and Europe. As the electricity grid is built to endure maximum load, which usually occurs on the hottest day of the year, our findings have significant implications for the construction of costly peak generating and transmission capacity.

Sirepo - Warp

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nagler, Robert; Moeller, Paul

Sirepo is an open source framework for cloud computing. The graphical user interface (GUI) for Sirepo, also known as the client, executes in any HTML5 compliant web browser on any computing platform, including tablets. The client is built in JavaScript, making use of the following open source libraries: Bootstrap, which is fundamental for cross-platform web applications; AngularJS, which provides a model–view–controller (MVC) architecture and GUI components; and D3.js, which provides interactive plots and data-driven transformations. The Sirepo server is built on the following Python technologies: Flask, which is a lightweight framework for web development; Jin-ja, which is a secure andmore » widely used templating language; and Werkzeug, a utility library that is compliant with the WSGI standard. We use Nginx as the HTTP server and proxy, which provides a scalable event-driven architecture. The physics codes supported by Sirepo execute inside a Docker container. One of the codes supported by Sirepo is Warp. Warp is a particle-in-cell (PIC) code de-signed to simulate high-intensity charged particle beams and plasmas in both the electrostatic and electromagnetic regimes, with a wide variety of integrated physics models and diagnostics. At pre-sent, Sirepo supports a small subset of Warp’s capabilities. Warp is open source and is part of the Berkeley Lab Accelerator Simulation Toolkit.« less

Numerical simulation of diurnally varying thermal environment in a street canyon under haze-fog conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Zijing; Dong, Jingliang; Xiao, Yimin; Tu, Jiyuan

2015-10-01

The impact of haze-fog on surface temperature, flow pattern, pollutant dispersion and pedestrian thermal comfort are investigated using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach based on a three-dimensional street canyon model under different haze-fog conditions. In this study, light extinction coefficient (Kex) is adopted to represent haze-fog pollution level. Numerical simulations are performed for different Kex values at four representative time events (1000 LST, 1300 LST, 1600 LST and 2000 LST). The numerical results suggest that the surface temperature is strongly affected by the haze-fog condition. Surface heating induced by the solar radiation is enhanced by haze-fog, as higher surface temperature is observed under thicker haze-fog condition. Moreover, the temperature difference between sunlit and shadow surfaces is reduced, while that for the two shadow surfaces is slightly increased. Therefore, the surface temperature among street canyon facets becomes more evenly distributed under heavy haze-fog conditions. In addition, flow patterns are considerably altered by different haze-fog conditions, especially for the afternoon (1600 LST) case, in which thermal-driven flow has opposite direction as that of the wind-driven flow direction. Consequently, pollutants such as vehicular emissions will accumulate at pedestrian level, and pedestrian thermal comfort may lower under thicker haze-fog condition.

UBIQUITOUS SOLAR ERUPTIONS DRIVEN BY MAGNETIZED VORTEX TUBES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kitiashvili, I. N.; Kosovichev, A. G.; Lele, S. K.

2013-06-10

The solar surface is covered by high-speed jets transporting mass and energy into the solar corona and feeding the solar wind. The most prominent of these jets have been known as spicules. However, the mechanism initiating these eruption events is still unknown. Using realistic numerical simulations we find that small-scale eruptions are produced by ubiquitous magnetized vortex tubes generated by the Sun's turbulent convection in subsurface layers. The swirling vortex tubes (resembling tornadoes) penetrate into the solar atmosphere, capture and stretch background magnetic field, and push the surrounding material up, generating shocks. Our simulations reveal complicated high-speed flow patterns andmore » thermodynamic and magnetic structure in the erupting vortex tubes. The main new results are: (1) the eruptions are initiated in the subsurface layers and are driven by high-pressure gradients in the subphotosphere and photosphere and by the Lorentz force in the higher atmosphere layers; (2) the fluctuations in the vortex tubes penetrating into the chromosphere are quasi-periodic with a characteristic period of 2-5 minutes; and (3) the eruptions are highly non-uniform: the flows are predominantly downward in the vortex tube cores and upward in their surroundings; the plasma density and temperature vary significantly across the eruptions.« less

Remembering the past and imagining the future: Identifying and enhancing the contribution of episodic memory

PubMed Central

Schacter, Daniel L; Madore, Kevin P

2016-01-01

Recent studies have shown that imagining or simulating future events relies on many of the same cognitive and neural processes as remembering past events. According to the constructive episodic simulation hypothesis (Schacter and Addis, 2007), such overlap indicates that both remembered past and imagined future events rely heavily on episodic memory: future simulations are built on retrieved details of specific past experiences that are recombined into novel events. An alternative possibility is that commonalities between remembering and imagining reflect the influence of more general, non-episodic factors such as narrative style or communicative goals that shape the expression of both memory and imagination. We consider recent studies that distinguish the contributions of episodic and non-episodic processes in remembering the past and imagining the future by using an episodic specificity induction – brief training in recollecting the details of a past experience – and also extend this approach to the domains of problem solving and creative thinking. We conclude by suggesting that the specificity induction may target a process of scene construction that contributes to episodic memory as well as to imagination, problem solving, and creative thinking. PMID:28163775

Simulating flaring events in complex active regions driven by observed magnetograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimitropoulou, M.; Isliker, H.; Vlahos, L.; Georgoulis, M. K.

2011-05-01

Context. We interpret solar flares as events originating in active regions that have reached the self organized critical state, by using a refined cellular automaton model with initial conditions derived from observations. Aims: We investigate whether the system, with its imposed physical elements, reaches a self organized critical state and whether well-known statistical properties of flares, such as scaling laws observed in the distribution functions of characteristic parameters, are reproduced after this state has been reached. Methods: To investigate whether the distribution functions of total energy, peak energy and event duration follow the expected scaling laws, we first applied a nonlinear force-free extrapolation that reconstructs the three-dimensional magnetic fields from two-dimensional vector magnetograms. We then locate magnetic discontinuities exceeding a threshold in the Laplacian of the magnetic field. These discontinuities are relaxed in local diffusion events, implemented in the form of cellular automaton evolution rules. Subsequent loading and relaxation steps lead the system to self organized criticality, after which the statistical properties of the simulated events are examined. Physical requirements, such as the divergence-free condition for the magnetic field vector, are approximately imposed on all elements of the model. Results: Our results show that self organized criticality is indeed reached when applying specific loading and relaxation rules. Power-law indices obtained from the distribution functions of the modeled flaring events are in good agreement with observations. Single power laws (peak and total flare energy) are obtained, as are power laws with exponential cutoff and double power laws (flare duration). The results are also compared with observational X-ray data from the GOES satellite for our active-region sample. Conclusions: We conclude that well-known statistical properties of flares are reproduced after the system has reached self organized criticality. A significant enhancement of our refined cellular automaton model is that it commences the simulation from observed vector magnetograms, thus facilitating energy calculation in physical units. The model described in this study remains consistent with fundamental physical requirements, and imposes physically meaningful driving and redistribution rules.

Ocean Mixed Layer responses to intense meteorological events during HyMeX-SOP1 from a high-resolution ocean simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebeaupin Brossier, Cindy; Arsouze, Thomas; Béranger, Karine; Bouin, Marie-Noëlle; Bresson, Emilie; Ducrocq, Véronique; Giordani, Hervé; Nuret, Mathieu; Rainaud, Romain; Taupier-Letage, Isabelle

2014-12-01

The western Mediterranean Sea is a source of heat and humidity for the atmospheric low-levels in autumn. Large exchanges take place at the air-sea interface, especially during intense meteorological events, such as heavy precipitation and/or strong winds. The Ocean Mixed Layer (OML), which is quite thin at this time of year (∼ 20 m-depth), evolves rapidly under such intense fluxes. This study investigates the ocean responses under intense meteorological events that occurred during HyMeX SOP1 (5 September-6 November 2012). The OML conditions and tendencies are derived from a high-resolution ocean simulation using the sub-regional eddy-resolving NEMO-WMED36 model (1/36°-resolution), driven at the surface by hourly air-sea fluxes from the AROME-WMED forecasts (2.5 km-resolution). The high space-time resolution of the atmospheric forcing allows the highly variable surface fluxes, which induce rapid changes in the OML, to be well represented and linked to small-scale atmospheric processes. First, the simulation results are compared to ocean profiles from several platforms obtained during the campaign. Then, this study focuses on the short-term OML evolution during three events. In particular, we examine the OML cooling and mixing under strong wind events, potentially associated with upwelling, as well as the surface freshening under heavy precipitation events, producing low-salinity lenses. Tendencies demonstrate the major role of the surface forcing in the temperature and/or salinity anomaly formation. At the same time, mixing [restratification] rapidly occurs. As expected, the sign of this tendency term is very dependent on the local vertical stratification which varies at fine scale in the Mediterranean. It also controls [disables] the vertical propagation. In the Alboran Sea, the strong dynamics redistribute the OML anomalies, sometimes up to 7 days after their formation. Elsewhere, despite local amplitude modulations due to internal wave excitation by strong winds, the integrated effect of the horizontal advection is almost null on the anomalies' spread and decay. Finally, diffusion has a small contribution.

Data-Driven Anomaly Detection Performance for the Ares I-X Ground Diagnostic Prototype

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, Rodney A.; Schwabacher, Mark A.; Matthews, Bryan L.

2010-01-01

In this paper, we will assess the performance of a data-driven anomaly detection algorithm, the Inductive Monitoring System (IMS), which can be used to detect simulated Thrust Vector Control (TVC) system failures. However, the ability of IMS to detect these failures in a true operational setting may be related to the realistic nature of how they are simulated. As such, we will investigate both a low fidelity and high fidelity approach to simulating such failures, with the latter based upon the underlying physics. Furthermore, the ability of IMS to detect anomalies that were previously unknown and not previously simulated will be studied in earnest, as well as apparent deficiencies or misapplications that result from using the data-driven paradigm. Our conclusions indicate that robust detection performance of simulated failures using IMS is not appreciably affected by the use of a high fidelity simulation. However, we have found that the inclusion of a data-driven algorithm such as IMS into a suite of deployable health management technologies does add significant value.

A post-processing method to simulate the generalized RF sheath boundary condition

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Myra, James R.; Kohno, Haruhiko

For applications of ICRF power in fusion devices, control of RF sheath interactions is of great importance. A sheath boundary condition (SBC) was previously developed to provide an effective surface impedance for the interaction of the RF sheath with the waves. The SBC enables the surface power flux and rectified potential energy available for sputtering to be calculated. For legacy codes which cannot easily implement the SBC, or to speed convergence in codes which do implement it, we consider here an approximate method to simulate SBCs by post-processing results obtained using other, e.g. conducting wall, boundary conditions. The basic approximationmore » is that the modifications resulting from the generalized SBC are driven by a fixed incoming wave which could be either a fast wave or a slow wave. Finally, the method is illustrated in slab geometry and compared with exact numerical solutions; it is shown to work very well.« less

A post-processing method to simulate the generalized RF sheath boundary condition

DOE PAGES

Myra, James R.; Kohno, Haruhiko

2017-10-23

For applications of ICRF power in fusion devices, control of RF sheath interactions is of great importance. A sheath boundary condition (SBC) was previously developed to provide an effective surface impedance for the interaction of the RF sheath with the waves. The SBC enables the surface power flux and rectified potential energy available for sputtering to be calculated. For legacy codes which cannot easily implement the SBC, or to speed convergence in codes which do implement it, we consider here an approximate method to simulate SBCs by post-processing results obtained using other, e.g. conducting wall, boundary conditions. The basic approximationmore » is that the modifications resulting from the generalized SBC are driven by a fixed incoming wave which could be either a fast wave or a slow wave. Finally, the method is illustrated in slab geometry and compared with exact numerical solutions; it is shown to work very well.« less

Parameterization of synoptic weather systems in the South Atlantic Bight for modeling applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Xiaodong; Voulgaris, George; Kumar, Nirnimesh

2017-10-01

An event based, long-term, climatological analysis is presented that allows the creation of coastal ocean atmospheric forcing on the coastal ocean that preserves both frequency of occurrence and event time history. An algorithm is developed that identifies individual storm event (cold fronts, warm fronts, and tropical storms) from meteorological records. The algorithm has been applied to a location along the South Atlantic Bight, off South Carolina, an area prone to cyclogenesis occurrence and passages of atmospheric fronts. Comparison against daily weather maps confirms that the algorithm is efficient in identifying cold fronts and warm fronts, while the identification of tropical storms is less successful. The average state of the storm events and their variability are represented by the temporal evolution of atmospheric pressure, air temperature, wind velocity, and wave directional spectral energy. The use of uncorrected algorithm-detected events provides climatologies that show a little deviation from those derived using corrected events. The effectiveness of this analysis method is further verified by numerically simulating the wave conditions driven by the characteristic wind forcing and comparing the results with the wave climatology that corresponds to each storm type. A high level of consistency found in the comparison indicates that this analysis method can be used for accurately characterizing event-based oceanic processes and long-term storm-induced morphodynamic processes on wind-dominated coasts.

N-body simulations of collective effects in spiral and barred galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.

2016-10-01

We present gravitational N-body simulations of the secular morphological evolution of disk galaxies induced by density wave modes. In particular, we address the demands collective effects place on the choice of simulation parameters, and show that the common practice of the use of a large gravity softening parameter was responsible for the failure of past simulations to correctly model the secular evolution process in galaxies, even for those simulations where the choice of basic state allows an unstable mode to emerge, a prerequisite for obtaining the coordinated radial mass flow pattern needed for secular evolution of galaxies along the Hubble sequence. We also demonstrate that the secular evolution rates measured in our improved simulations agree to an impressive degree with the corresponding rates predicted by the recently-advanced theories of dynamically-driven secular evolution of galaxies. The results of the current work, besides having direct implications on the cosmological evolution of galaxies, also shed light on the general question of how irreversibility emerges from a nominally reversible physical system.

Sensitivity analysis of an optimization-based trajectory planner for autonomous vehicles in urban environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardy, Jason; Campbell, Mark; Miller, Isaac; Schimpf, Brian

2008-10-01

The local path planner implemented on Cornell's 2007 DARPA Urban Challenge entry vehicle Skynet utilizes a novel mixture of discrete and continuous path planning steps to facilitate a safe, smooth, and human-like driving behavior. The planner first solves for a feasible path through the local obstacle map using a grid based search algorithm. The resulting path is then refined using a cost-based nonlinear optimization routine with both hard and soft constraints. The behavior of this optimization is influenced by tunable weighting parameters which govern the relative cost contributions assigned to different path characteristics. This paper studies the sensitivity of the vehicle's performance to these path planner weighting parameters using a data driven simulation based on logged data from the National Qualifying Event. The performance of the path planner in both the National Qualifying Event and in the Urban Challenge is also presented and analyzed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saide, Pablo E.; Peterson, David A.; de Silva, Arlindo

We couple airborne, ground-based, and satellite observations; conduct regional simulations; and develop and apply an inversion technique to constrain hourly smoke emissions from the Rim Fire, the third largest observed in California, USA. Emissions constrained with multiplatform data show notable nocturnal enhancements (sometimes over a factor of 20), correlate better with daily burned area data, and are a factor of 2–4 higher than a priori estimates, highlighting the need for improved characterization of diurnal profiles and day-to-day variability when modeling extreme fires. Constraining only with satellite data results in smaller enhancements mainly due to missing retrievals near the emissions source,more » suggesting that top-down emission estimates for these events could be underestimated and a multiplatform approach is required to resolve them. Predictions driven by emissions constrained with multiplatform data present significant variations in downwind air quality and in aerosol feedback on meteorology, emphasizing the need for improved emissions estimates during exceptional events.« less

Meteorological Controls on Biomass Burning During Santa Ana Events in Southern California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veraverbeke, Sander; Capps, Scott; Hook, Simon J.; Randerson, James T.; Jin, Yufang; Hall, Alex

2013-01-01

Fires occurring during Santa Ana (SA) events in southern California are driven by extreme fire weather characterized by high temperatures, low humidities, and high wind speeds. We studied the controls on burned area and carbon emissions during two intensive SA burning periods in 2003 and 2007. We therefore used remote sensing data in parallel with fire weather simulations of the Weather and Regional Forecast model. Total carbon emissions were approximately 1800 gigagrams in 2003 and 900 gigagrams in 2007, based on a daily burned area and a fire emission model that accounted for spatial variability in fuel loads and combustion completeness. On a regional scale, relatively strong positive correlations were found between the daily Fosberg fire weather index and burned area/emissions (probability is less than 0.01). Our analysis provides a quantitative assessment of relationships between fire activity and weather during severe SA fires in southern California.

Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

PubMed

McMichael, Anthony J

2015-01-01

Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

Using Real and Simulated TNOs to Constrain the Outer Solar System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaib, Nathan

2018-04-01

Over the past 2-3 decades our understanding of the outer solar system’s history and current state has evolved dramatically. An explosion in the number of detected trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) coupled with simultaneous advances in numerical models of orbital dynamics has driven this rapid evolution. However, successfully constraining the orbital architecture and evolution of the outer solar system requires accurately comparing simulation results with observational datasets. This process is challenging because observed datasets are influenced by orbital discovery biases as well as TNO size and albedo distributions. Meanwhile, such influences are generally absent from numerical results. Here I will review recent work I and others have undertaken using numerical simulations in concert with catalogs of observed TNOs to constrain the outer solar system’s current orbital architecture and past evolution.

Shock-driven fluid-structure interaction for civil design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, Stephen L; Deiterding, Ralf

The multiphysics fluid-structure interaction simulation of shock-loaded structures requires the dynamic coupling of a shock-capturing flow solver to a solid mechanics solver for large deformations. The Virtual Test Facility combines a Cartesian embedded boundary approach with dynamic mesh adaptation in a generic software framework of flow solvers using hydrodynamic finite volume upwind schemes that are coupled to various explicit finite element solid dynamics solvers (Deiterding et al., 2006). This paper gives a brief overview of the computational approach and presents first simulations that utilize the general purpose solid dynamics code DYNA3D for complex 3D structures of interest in civil engineering.more » Results from simulations of a reinforced column, highway bridge, multistory building, and nuclear reactor building are presented.« less

Radial dependence of solar energetic particles derived from the 15 March 2013 solar energetic particle event and global MHD simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Chin-Chun, E-mail: chin-chun.wu@nrl.navy.mil; Plunkett, Simon, E-mail: simon.plunkett@nrl.navy.mil; Liou, Kan, E-mail: kan.liou@jhuapl.edu

2016-03-25

We study an unusual solar energetic particle (SEP) event that was associated with the coronal mass ejection (CME) on March 15, 2013. Enhancements of the SEP fluxes were first detected by the ACE spacecraft at 14:00 UT, ∼7 hours after the onset of the CME (07:00 UT), and the SEP’s peak intensities were recorded ∼36 hours after the onset of the CME. Our recent study showed that the CME-driven shock Mach number, based on a global three-dimensional (3-D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation, is well correlated with the time-intensity of 10-30 MeV and 30-80 MeV protons. Here we focus on the radial dependence (r{supmore » −α}) of {sup 4}He (3.43-41.2 MeV/n) and O (7.30-89.8 MeV/n) energetic particles from ACE/SIS. It is found that the scaling factor (α) ranges between 2 and 4 for most of the energy channels. We also found that the correlation coefficients tend to increase with SEP energies.« less

Role of Laboratory Plasma Experiments in exploring the Physics of Solar Eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tripathi, S.

2017-12-01

Solar eruptive events are triggered over a broad range of spatio-temporal scales by a variety of fundamental processes (e.g., force-imbalance, magnetic-reconnection, electrical-current driven instabilities) associated with arched magnetoplasma structures in the solar atmosphere. Contemporary research on solar eruptive events is at the forefront of solar and heliospheric physics due to its relevance to space weather. Details on the formation of magnetized plasma structures on the Sun, storage of magnetic energy in such structures over a long period (several Alfven transit times), and their impulsive eruptions have been recorded in numerous observations and simulated in computer models. Inherent limitations of space observations and uncontrolled nature of solar eruptions pose significant challenges in testing theoretical models and developing the predictive capability for space-weather. The pace of scientific progress in this area can be significantly boosted by tapping the potential of appropriately scaled laboratory plasma experiments to compliment solar observations, theoretical models, and computer simulations. To give an example, recent results from a laboratory plasma experiment on arched magnetic flux ropes will be presented and future challenges will be discussed. (Work supported by National Science Foundation, USA under award number 1619551)

Molecular modeling of field-driven ion emission from ionic liquids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fei; He, Yadong; Qiao, Rui

2017-11-01

Traditionally, operating electrosprays in the purely ionic mode is challenging, but recent experiments confirmed that such operation can be achieved using room-temperature ionic liquids as working electrolytes. Such electrosprays have shown promise in applications including chemical analysis, nanomanufacturing, and space propulsion. The mechanistic and quantitative understanding of such electrosprays at the molecular level, however, remain limited at present. In this work, we simulated ion emission from EMIM-PF6 ionic liquid films using the molecular dynamics method. We show that, when the surface electric field is smaller than 1.5V/nm, the ion emission current predicted using coarse-grained ionic liquid model observes the classical scaling law by J. V. Iribarne and B. A. Thomson, i.e., ln(Je/ σ) En1/2. These simulations, however, cannot capture the co-emission of cations and anions from ionic liquid surface observed in some experiments. Such co-emission was successfully captured when united-atom models were adopted for the ionic liquids. By examining the co-emission events with picosecond, sub-angstrom resolution, we clarified the origins of the co-emission phenomenon and delineate the molecular events leading to ion emission.

Analysis of the present and future winter Pacific-North American teleconnection in the ECHAM5 global and RegCM3 regional climate models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allan, Andrea M.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Alder, Jay R.

2014-01-01

We use the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NCEP) and the MPI/ECHAM5 general circulation model to drive the RegCM3 regional climate model to assess the ability of the models to reproduce the spatiotemporal aspects of the Pacific-North American teleconnection (PNA) pattern. Composite anomalies of the NCEP-driven RegCM3 simulations for 1982–2000 indicate that the regional model is capable of accurately simulating the key features (500-hPa heights, surface temperature, and precipitation) of the positive and negative phases of the PNA with little loss of information in the downscaling process. The basic structure of the PNA is captured in both the ECHAM5 global and ECHAM5-driven RegCM3 simulations. The 1950–2000 ECHAM5 simulation displays similar temporal and spatial variability in the PNA index as that of NCEP; however, the magnitudes of the positive and negative phases are weaker than those of NCEP. The RegCM3 simulations clearly differentiate the climatology and associated anomalies of snow water equivalent and soil moisture of the positive and negative PNA phases. In the RegCM3 simulations of the future (2050–2100), changes in the location and extent of the Aleutian low and the continental high over North America alter the dominant flow patterns associated with positive and negative PNA modes. The future projections display a shift in the patterns of the relationship between the PNA and surface climate variables, which suggest the potential for changes in the PNA-related surface hydrology of North America.

On the long-term memory of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogozhina, I.; Martinec, Z.; Hagedoorn, J. M.; Thomas, M.; Fleming, K.

2011-03-01

In this study, the memory of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) with respect to its past states is analyzed. According to ice core reconstructions, the present-day GIS reflects former climatic conditions dating back to at least 250 thousand years before the present (kyr BP). This fact must be considered when initializing an ice sheet model. The common initialization techniques are paleoclimatic simulations driven by atmospheric forcing inferred from ice core records and steady state simulations driven by the present-day or past climatic conditions. When paleoclimatic simulations are used, the information about the past climatic conditions is partly reflected in the resulting present-day state of the GIS. However, there are several important questions that need to be clarified. First, for how long does the model remember its initial state? Second, it is generally acknowledged that, prior to 100 kyr BP, the longest Greenland ice core record (GRIP) is distorted by ice-flow irregularities. The question arises as to what extent do the uncertainties inherent in the GRIP-based forcing influence the resulting GIS? Finally, how is the modeled thermodynamic state affected by the choice of initialization technique (paleo or steady state)? To answer these questions, a series of paleoclimatic and steady state simulations is carried out. We conclude that (1) the choice of an ice-covered initial configuration shortens the initialization simulation time to 100 kyr, (2) the uncertainties in the GRIP-based forcing affect present-day modeled ice-surface topographies and temperatures only slightly, and (3) the GIS forced by present-day climatic conditions is overall warmer than that resulting from a paleoclimatic simulation.

VERSE - Virtual Equivalent Real-time Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zheng, Yang; Martin, Bryan J.; Villaume, Nathaniel

2005-01-01

Distributed real-time simulations provide important timing validation and hardware in the- loop results for the spacecraft flight software development cycle. Occasionally, the need for higher fidelity modeling and more comprehensive debugging capabilities - combined with a limited amount of computational resources - calls for a non real-time simulation environment that mimics the real-time environment. By creating a non real-time environment that accommodates simulations and flight software designed for a multi-CPU real-time system, we can save development time, cut mission costs, and reduce the likelihood of errors. This paper presents such a solution: Virtual Equivalent Real-time Simulation Environment (VERSE). VERSE turns the real-time operating system RTAI (Real-time Application Interface) into an event driven simulator that runs in virtual real time. Designed to keep the original RTAI architecture as intact as possible, and therefore inheriting RTAI's many capabilities, VERSE was implemented with remarkably little change to the RTAI source code. This small footprint together with use of the same API allows users to easily run the same application in both real-time and virtual time environments. VERSE has been used to build a workstation testbed for NASA's Space Interferometry Mission (SIM PlanetQuest) instrument flight software. With its flexible simulation controls and inexpensive setup and replication costs, VERSE will become an invaluable tool in future mission development.

The vertical structure of convectively-driven cloud microphysics and its dependency on atmospheric conditions: An investigation through observations and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Diedenhoven, B.; Fridlind, A. M.; Sinclair, K.; Ackerman, A. S.

2016-12-01

It is generally observed that ice crystal sizes decrease as a function of altitude within clouds. This dependency is often explained as resulting from size sorting owing to the greater fall speeds of larger particles, but may also be related to dependence of ice diffusional growth on available water vapor and temperature, or other factors. Furthermore, the vertical variation of ice sizes is expected to be affected by the glaciation temperature of convectively-driven clouds. Realistic modeling of ice formation, growth and sedimentation is crucial to reliably represent vertical structures of ice clouds and cloud evolution in general. In this presentation we use remote sensing observations of glaciation temperature and ice effective radius obtained with airborne instruments to explore how their vertical dependencies vary with atmospheric conditions, such as humidity and wind profiles. Our focus will be on convectively-driven clouds. Subsequently, we test the ability of a quasi-idealized cloud permitting model to reproduce these dependencies of ice formation and size to atmospheric conditions, applying various ice growth and multiplication assumptions. The goal of this study is to identify variables that determine the vertical structure of cold clouds that can be used to evaluate model simulations.

Floquet-Magnus theory and generic transient dynamics in periodically driven many-body quantum systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuwahara, Tomotaka; Mori, Takashi; Saito, Keiji

2016-04-01

This work explores a fundamental dynamical structure for a wide range of many-body quantum systems under periodic driving. Generically, in the thermodynamic limit, such systems are known to heat up to infinite temperature states in the long-time limit irrespective of dynamical details, which kills all the specific properties of the system. In the present study, instead of considering infinitely long-time scale, we aim to provide a general framework to understand the long but finite time behavior, namely the transient dynamics. In our analysis, we focus on the Floquet-Magnus (FM) expansion that gives a formal expression of the effective Hamiltonian on the system. Although in general the full series expansion is not convergent in the thermodynamics limit, we give a clear relationship between the FM expansion and the transient dynamics. More precisely, we rigorously show that a truncated version of the FM expansion accurately describes the exact dynamics for a certain time-scale. Our theory reveals an experimental time-scale for which non-trivial dynamical phenomena can be reliably observed. We discuss several dynamical phenomena, such as the effect of small integrability breaking, efficient numerical simulation of periodically driven systems, dynamical localization and thermalization. Especially on thermalization, we discuss a generic scenario on the prethermalization phenomenon in periodically driven systems.

Integrated hydraulic and organophosphate pesticide injection simulations for enhancing event detection in water distribution systems.

PubMed

Schwartz, Rafi; Lahav, Ori; Ostfeld, Avi

2014-10-15

As a complementary step towards solving the general event detection problem of water distribution systems, injection of the organophosphate pesticides, chlorpyrifos (CP) and parathion (PA), were simulated at various locations within example networks and hydraulic parameters were calculated over 24-h duration. The uniqueness of this study is that the chemical reactions and byproducts of the contaminants' oxidation were also simulated, as well as other indicative water quality parameters such as alkalinity, acidity, pH and the total concentration of free chlorine species. The information on the change in water quality parameters induced by the contaminant injection may facilitate on-line detection of an actual event involving this specific substance and pave the way to development of a generic methodology for detecting events involving introduction of pesticides into water distribution systems. Simulation of the contaminant injection was performed at several nodes within two different networks. For each injection, concentrations of the relevant contaminants' mother and daughter species, free chlorine species and water quality parameters, were simulated at nodes downstream of the injection location. The results indicate that injection of these substances can be detected at certain conditions by a very rapid drop in Cl2, functioning as the indicative parameter, as well as a drop in alkalinity concentration and a small decrease in pH, both functioning as supporting parameters, whose usage may reduce false positive alarms. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Event and Cost Offsets of Switching 20% of the Type 1 Diabetes Population in Germany From Multiple Daily Injections to Continuous Subcutaneous Insulin Infusion: A 4-Year Simulation Model.

PubMed

Zöllner, York Francis; Ziegler, Ralph; Stüve, Magnus; Krumreich, Julia; Schauf, Marion

2016-09-01

Most patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D) administer insulin by multiple daily injections (MDI). However, continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) therapy has been shown to improve glycemic control compared with MDI. The objective was to determine the key medical event and cost offsets generated over a 4-year period by introducing CSII to T1D patients who have inadequately controlled glucose metabolism on MDI in Germany. A decision-analytic budget impact model, simulating a treatment switch scenario, was developed. In the base case, all T1D patients received MDI, while in the switch scenario, 20% of the eligible T1D population, randomly selected, moved to CSII. The model focused on 2 medical endpoints and their corresponding cost offsets: severe hypoglycemic events requiring hospitalization (SHEH) and complication-borne diabetic events (CDEs) avoided. Event rates and costs were taken from the literature and official sources, adopting a health insurance perspective. Compared with the base case, treating 20% of patients with CSII in the switch scenario resulted in 47 864 fewer SHEH and 5543 fewer CDEs. This led to total cost offsets of €183 085 281 within the 4-year time horizon. Of these, 92% were driven by avoided SHEH. Compared to an expected budget impact (cost increase) of 83%, only treatment costs considered, the total impact of the switch scenario amounted merely to a 24.5% increase in costs (reduction by 58.5% points; a factor of 3.4). The use of CSII resulted in fewer SHEH and CDEs compared to MDI. The incurred CSII implementation costs are hence offset to a substantial degree by cost savings in complication treatment. © 2016 Diabetes Technology Society.

CFD Analyses of Air-Ingress Accident for VHTRs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ham, Tae Kyu

The Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR) is one of six proposed Generation-IV concepts for the next generation of nuclear powered plants. The VHTR is advantageous because it is able to operate at very high temperatures, thus producing highly efficient electrical generation and hydrogen production. A critical safety event of the VHTR is a loss-of-coolant accident. This accident is initiated, in its worst-case scenario, by a double-ended guillotine break of the cross vessel that connects the reactor vessel and the power conversion unit. Following the depressurization process, the air (i.e., the air and helium mixture) in the reactor cavity could enter the reactor core causing an air-ingress event. In the event of air-ingress into the reactor core, the high-temperature in-core graphite structures will chemically react with the air and could lose their structural integrity. We designed a 1/8th scaled-down test facility to develop an experimental database for studying the mechanisms involved in the air-ingress phenomenon. The current research focuses on the analysis of the air-ingress phenomenon using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tool ANSYS FLUENT for better understanding of the air-ingress phenomenon. The anticipated key steps in the air-ingress scenario for guillotine break of VHTR cross vessel are: 1) depressurization; 2) density-driven stratified flow; 3) local hot plenum natural circulation; 4) diffusion into the reactor core; and 5) global natural circulation. However, the OSU air-ingress test facility covers the time from depressurization to local hot plenum natural circulation. Prior to beginning the CFD simulations for the OSU air-ingress test facility, benchmark studies for the mechanisms which are related to the air-ingress accident, were performed to decide the appropriate physical models for the accident analysis. In addition, preliminary experiments were performed with a simplified 1/30th scaled down acrylic set-up to understand the air-ingress mechanism and to utilize the CFD simulation in the analysis of the phenomenon. Previous air-ingress studies simulated the depressurization process using simple assumptions or 1-D system code results. However, recent studies found flow oscillations near the end of the depressurization which could influence the next stage of the air-ingress accident. Therefore, CFD simulations were performed to examine the air-ingress mechanisms from the depressurization through the establishment of local natural circulation initiate. In addition to the double-guillotine break scenario, there are other scenarios that can lead to an air-ingress event such as a partial break were in the cross vessel with various break locations, orientations, and shapes. These additional situations were also investigated. The simulation results for the OSU test facility showed that the discharged helium coolant from a reactor vessel during the depressurization process will be mixed with the air in the containment. This process makes the density of the gas mixture in the containment lower and the density-driven air-ingress flow slower because the density-driven flow is established by the density difference of the gas species between the reactor vessel and the containment. In addition, for the simulations with various initial and boundary conditions, the simulation results showed that the total accumulated air in the containment collapsed within 10% standard deviation by: 1. multiplying the density ratio and viscosity ratio of the gas species between the containment and the reactor vessel and 2. multiplying the ratio of the air mole fraction and gas temperature to the reference value. By replacing the gas mixture in the reactor cavity with a gas heavier than the air, the air-ingress speed slowed down. Based on the understanding of the air-ingress phenomena for the GT-MHR air-ingress scenario, several mitigation measures of air-ingress accident are proposed. The CFD results are utilized to plan experimental strategy and apparatus installation to obtain the best results when conducting an experiment. The validation of the generated CFD solutions will be performed with the OSU air-ingress experimental results. (Abstract shortened by UMI.).

Fuzzy inductive reasoning: a consolidated approach to data-driven construction of complex dynamical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nebot, Àngela; Mugica, Francisco

2012-10-01

Fuzzy inductive reasoning (FIR) is a modelling and simulation methodology derived from the General Systems Problem Solver. It compares favourably with other soft computing methodologies, such as neural networks, genetic or neuro-fuzzy systems, and with hard computing methodologies, such as AR, ARIMA, or NARMAX, when it is used to predict future behaviour of different kinds of systems. This paper contains an overview of the FIR methodology, its historical background, and its evolution.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ku, S.; Chang, C. S.; Hager, R.

Here, a fast edge turbulence suppression event has been simulated in the electrostatic version of the gyrokinetic particle-in-cell code XGC1 in a realistic diverted tokamak edge geometry under neutral particle recycling. The results show that the sequence of turbulent Reynolds stress followed by neoclassical ion orbit-loss driven together conspire to form the sustaining radial electric field shear and to quench turbulent transport just inside the last closed magnetic flux surface. As a result, the main suppression action is located in a thin radial layer around ψ N≃0.96–0.98, where ψ N is the normalized poloidal flux, with the time scale ~0.1more » ms.« less

Rogue waves in a multistable system.

PubMed

Pisarchik, Alexander N; Jaimes-Reátegui, Rider; Sevilla-Escoboza, Ricardo; Huerta-Cuellar, G; Taki, Majid

2011-12-30

Clear evidence of rogue waves in a multistable system is revealed by experiments with an erbium-doped fiber laser driven by harmonic pump modulation. The mechanism for the rogue wave formation lies in the interplay of stochastic processes with multistable deterministic dynamics. Low-frequency noise applied to a diode pump current induces rare jumps to coexisting subharmonic states with high-amplitude pulses perceived as rogue waves. The probability of these events depends on the noise filtered frequency and grows up when the noise amplitude increases. The probability distribution of spike amplitudes confirms the rogue wave character of the observed phenomenon. The results of numerical simulations are in good agreement with experiments.

Fluid pressure responses for a Devil's Slide-like system: problem formulation and simulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, Matthew A.; Loague, Keith; Voss, Clifford I.

2015-01-01

This study employs a hydrogeologic simulation approach to investigate subsurface fluid pressures for a landslide-prone section of the central California, USA, coast known as Devil's Slide. Understanding the relative changes in subsurface fluid pressures is important for systems, such as Devil's Slide, where slope creep can be interrupted by episodic slip events. Surface mapping, exploratory core, tunnel excavation records, and dip meter data were leveraged to conceptualize the parameter space for three-dimensional (3D) Devil's Slide-like simulations. Field observations (i.e. seepage meter, water retention, and infiltration experiments; well records; and piezometric data) and groundwater flow simulation (i.e. one-dimensional vertical, transient, and variably saturated) were used to design the boundary conditions for 3D Devil's Slide-like problems. Twenty-four simulations of steady-state saturated subsurface flow were conducted in a concept-development mode. Recharge, heterogeneity, and anisotropy are shown to increase fluid pressures for failure-prone locations by up to 18.1, 4.5, and 1.8% respectively. Previous estimates of slope stability, driven by simple water balances, are significantly improved upon with the fluid pressures reported here. The results, for a Devil's Slide-like system, provide a foundation for future investigations

MuSim, a Graphical User Interface for Multiple Simulation Programs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roberts, Thomas; Cummings, Mary Anne; Johnson, Rolland

2016-06-01

MuSim is a new user-friendly program designed to interface to many different particle simulation codes, regardless of their data formats or geometry descriptions. It presents the user with a compelling graphical user interface that includes a flexible 3-D view of the simulated world plus powerful editing and drag-and-drop capabilities. All aspects of the design can be parametrized so that parameter scans and optimizations are easy. It is simple to create plots and display events in the 3-D viewer (with a slider to vary the transparency of solids), allowing for an effortless comparison of different simulation codes. Simulation codes: G4beamline, MAD-X,more » and MCNP; more coming. Many accelerator design tools and beam optics codes were written long ago, with primitive user interfaces by today's standards. MuSim is specifically designed to make it easy to interface to such codes, providing a common user experience for all, and permitting the construction and exploration of models with very little overhead. For today's technology-driven students, graphical interfaces meet their expectations far better than text-based tools, and education in accelerator physics is one of our primary goals.« less

Generalized Synchronization in AN Array of Nonlinear Dynamic Systems with Applications to Chaotic Cnn

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Min, Lequan; Chen, Guanrong

This paper establishes some generalized synchronization (GS) theorems for a coupled discrete array of difference systems (CDADS) and a coupled continuous array of differential systems (CCADS). These constructive theorems provide general representations of GS in CDADS and CCADS. Based on these theorems, one can design GS-driven CDADS and CCADS via appropriate (invertible) transformations. As applications, the results are applied to autonomous and nonautonomous coupled Chen cellular neural network (CNN) CDADS and CCADS, discrete bidirectional Lorenz CNN CDADS, nonautonomous bidirectional Chua CNN CCADS, and nonautonomously bidirectional Chen CNN CDADS and CCADS, respectively. Extensive numerical simulations show their complex dynamic behaviors. These theorems provide new means for understanding the GS phenomena of complex discrete and continuously differentiable networks.

Limits on the Efficiency of Event-Based Algorithms for Monte Carlo Neutron Transport

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Romano, Paul K.; Siegel, Andrew R.

The traditional form of parallelism in Monte Carlo particle transport simulations, wherein each individual particle history is considered a unit of work, does not lend itself well to data-level parallelism. Event-based algorithms, which were originally used for simulations on vector processors, may offer a path toward better utilizing data-level parallelism in modern computer architectures. In this study, a simple model is developed for estimating the efficiency of the event-based particle transport algorithm under two sets of assumptions. Data collected from simulations of four reactor problems using OpenMC was then used in conjunction with the models to calculate the speedup duemore » to vectorization as a function of two parameters: the size of the particle bank and the vector width. When each event type is assumed to have constant execution time, the achievable speedup is directly related to the particle bank size. We observed that the bank size generally needs to be at least 20 times greater than vector size in order to achieve vector efficiency greater than 90%. When the execution times for events are allowed to vary, however, the vector speedup is also limited by differences in execution time for events being carried out in a single event-iteration. For some problems, this implies that vector effciencies over 50% may not be attainable. While there are many factors impacting performance of an event-based algorithm that are not captured by our model, it nevertheless provides insights into factors that may be limiting in a real implementation.« less

Improving dynamic performances of PWM-driven servo-pneumatic systems via a novel pneumatic circuit.

PubMed

Taghizadeh, Mostafa; Ghaffari, Ali; Najafi, Farid

2009-10-01

In this paper, the effect of pneumatic circuit design on the input-output behavior of PWM-driven servo-pneumatic systems is investigated and their control performances are improved using linear controllers instead of complex and costly nonlinear ones. Generally, servo-pneumatic systems are well known for their nonlinear behavior. However, PWM-driven servo-pneumatic systems have the advantage of flexibility in the design of pneumatic circuits which affects the input-output linearity of the whole system. A simple pneumatic circuit with only one fast switching valve is designed which leads to a quasi-linear input-output relation. The quasi-linear behavior of the proposed circuit is verified both experimentally and by simulations. Closed loop position control experiments are then carried out using linear P- and PD-controllers. Since the output position is noisy and cannot be directly differentiated, a Kalman filter is designed to estimate the velocity of the cylinder. Highly improved tracking performances are obtained using these linear controllers, compared to previous works with nonlinear controllers.