A Statistical Learning Framework for Materials Science: Application to Elastic Moduli of k-nary Inorganic Polycrystalline Compounds

PubMed Central

de Jong, Maarten; Chen, Wei; Notestine, Randy; Persson, Kristin; Ceder, Gerbrand; Jain, Anubhav; Asta, Mark; Gamst, Anthony

2016-01-01

Materials scientists increasingly employ machine or statistical learning (SL) techniques to accelerate materials discovery and design. Such pursuits benefit from pooling training data across, and thus being able to generalize predictions over, k-nary compounds of diverse chemistries and structures. This work presents a SL framework that addresses challenges in materials science applications, where datasets are diverse but of modest size, and extreme values are often of interest. Our advances include the application of power or Hölder means to construct descriptors that generalize over chemistry and crystal structure, and the incorporation of multivariate local regression within a gradient boosting framework. The approach is demonstrated by developing SL models to predict bulk and shear moduli (K and G, respectively) for polycrystalline inorganic compounds, using 1,940 compounds from a growing database of calculated elastic moduli for metals, semiconductors and insulators. The usefulness of the models is illustrated by screening for superhard materials. PMID:27694824

A Statistical Learning Framework for Materials Science: Application to Elastic Moduli of k-nary Inorganic Polycrystalline Compounds

DOE PAGES

de Jong, Maarten; Chen, Wei; Notestine, Randy; ...

2016-10-03

Materials scientists increasingly employ machine or statistical learning (SL) techniques to accelerate materials discovery and design. Such pursuits benefit from pooling training data across, and thus being able to generalize predictions over, k-nary compounds of diverse chemistries and structures. This work presents a SL framework that addresses challenges in materials science applications, where datasets are diverse but of modest size, and extreme values are often of interest. Our advances include the application of power or Hölder means to construct descriptors that generalize over chemistry and crystal structure, and the incorporation of multivariate local regression within a gradient boosting framework. Themore » approach is demonstrated by developing SL models to predict bulk and shear moduli (K and G, respectively) for polycrystalline inorganic compounds, using 1,940 compounds from a growing database of calculated elastic moduli for metals, semiconductors and insulators. The usefulness of the models is illustrated by screening for superhard materials.« less

Combining statistical inference and decisions in ecology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Perry J.; Hooten, Mevin B.

2016-01-01

Statistical decision theory (SDT) is a sub-field of decision theory that formally incorporates statistical investigation into a decision-theoretic framework to account for uncertainties in a decision problem. SDT provides a unifying analysis of three types of information: statistical results from a data set, knowledge of the consequences of potential choices (i.e., loss), and prior beliefs about a system. SDT links the theoretical development of a large body of statistical methods including point estimation, hypothesis testing, and confidence interval estimation. The theory and application of SDT have mainly been developed and published in the fields of mathematics, statistics, operations research, and other decision sciences, but have had limited exposure in ecology. Thus, we provide an introduction to SDT for ecologists and describe its utility for linking the conventionally separate tasks of statistical investigation and decision making in a single framework. We describe the basic framework of both Bayesian and frequentist SDT, its traditional use in statistics, and discuss its application to decision problems that occur in ecology. We demonstrate SDT with two types of decisions: Bayesian point estimation, and an applied management problem of selecting a prescribed fire rotation for managing a grassland bird species. Central to SDT, and decision theory in general, are loss functions. Thus, we also provide basic guidance and references for constructing loss functions for an SDT problem.

A weighted generalized score statistic for comparison of predictive values of diagnostic tests

PubMed Central

Kosinski, Andrzej S.

2013-01-01

Positive and negative predictive values are important measures of a medical diagnostic test performance. We consider testing equality of two positive or two negative predictive values within a paired design in which all patients receive two diagnostic tests. The existing statistical tests for testing equality of predictive values are either Wald tests based on the multinomial distribution or the empirical Wald and generalized score tests within the generalized estimating equations (GEE) framework. As presented in the literature, these test statistics have considerably complex formulas without clear intuitive insight. We propose their re-formulations which are mathematically equivalent but algebraically simple and intuitive. As is clearly seen with a new re-formulation we present, the generalized score statistic does not always reduce to the commonly used score statistic in the independent samples case. To alleviate this, we introduce a weighted generalized score (WGS) test statistic which incorporates empirical covariance matrix with newly proposed weights. This statistic is simple to compute, it always reduces to the score statistic in the independent samples situation, and it preserves type I error better than the other statistics as demonstrated by simulations. Thus, we believe the proposed WGS statistic is the preferred statistic for testing equality of two predictive values and for corresponding sample size computations. The new formulas of the Wald statistics may be useful for easy computation of confidence intervals for difference of predictive values. The introduced concepts have potential to lead to development of the weighted generalized score test statistic in a general GEE setting. PMID:22912343

A General Approach to Causal Mediation Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Imai, Kosuke; Keele, Luke; Tingley, Dustin

2010-01-01

Traditionally in the social sciences, causal mediation analysis has been formulated, understood, and implemented within the framework of linear structural equation models. We argue and demonstrate that this is problematic for 3 reasons: the lack of a general definition of causal mediation effects independent of a particular statistical model, the…

A general science-based framework for dynamical spatio-temporal models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wikle, C.K.; Hooten, M.B.

2010-01-01

Spatio-temporal statistical models are increasingly being used across a wide variety of scientific disciplines to describe and predict spatially-explicit processes that evolve over time. Correspondingly, in recent years there has been a significant amount of research on new statistical methodology for such models. Although descriptive models that approach the problem from the second-order (covariance) perspective are important, and innovative work is being done in this regard, many real-world processes are dynamic, and it can be more efficient in some cases to characterize the associated spatio-temporal dependence by the use of dynamical models. The chief challenge with the specification of such dynamical models has been related to the curse of dimensionality. Even in fairly simple linear, first-order Markovian, Gaussian error settings, statistical models are often over parameterized. Hierarchical models have proven invaluable in their ability to deal to some extent with this issue by allowing dependency among groups of parameters. In addition, this framework has allowed for the specification of science based parameterizations (and associated prior distributions) in which classes of deterministic dynamical models (e. g., partial differential equations (PDEs), integro-difference equations (IDEs), matrix models, and agent-based models) are used to guide specific parameterizations. Most of the focus for the application of such models in statistics has been in the linear case. The problems mentioned above with linear dynamic models are compounded in the case of nonlinear models. In this sense, the need for coherent and sensible model parameterizations is not only helpful, it is essential. Here, we present an overview of a framework for incorporating scientific information to motivate dynamical spatio-temporal models. First, we illustrate the methodology with the linear case. We then develop a general nonlinear spatio-temporal framework that we call general quadratic nonlinearity and demonstrate that it accommodates many different classes of scientific-based parameterizations as special cases. The model is presented in a hierarchical Bayesian framework and is illustrated with examples from ecology and oceanography. ?? 2010 Sociedad de Estad??stica e Investigaci??n Operativa.

PREFACE: Mathematical Aspects of Generalized Entropies and their Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suyari, Hiroki; Ohara, Atsumi; Wada, Tatsuaki

2010-01-01

In the recent increasing interests in power-law behaviors beyond the usual exponential ones, there have been some concrete attempts in statistical physics to generalize the standard Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics. Among such generalizations, nonextensive statistical mechanics has been well studied for about the last two decades with many modifications and refinements. The generalization has provided not only a theoretical framework but also many applications such as chaos, multi-fractal, complex systems, nonequilibrium statistical mechanics, biophysics, econophysics, information theory and so on. At the same time as the developments in the generalization of statistical mechanics, the corresponding mathematical structures have also been required and uncovered. In particular, some deep connections to mathematical sciences such as q-analysis, information geometry, information theory and quantum probability theory have been revealed recently. These results obviously indicate an existence of the generalized mathematical structure including the mathematical framework for the exponential family as a special case, but the whole structure is still unclear. In order to make an opportunity to discuss the mathematical structure induced from generalized entropies by scientists in many fields, the international workshop 'Mathematical Aspects of Generalized Entropies and their Applications' was held on 7-9 July 2009 at Kyoto TERRSA, Kyoto, Japan. This volume is the proceedings of the workshop which consisted of 6 invited speakers, 14 oral presenters, 7 poster presenters and 63 other participants. The topics of the workshop cover the nonextensive statistical mechanics, chaos, cosmology, information geometry, divergence theory, econophysics, materials engineering, molecular dynamics and entropy theory, information theory and so on. The workshop was organized as the first attempt to discuss these mathematical aspects with leading experts in each area. We would like to express special thanks to all the invited speakers, the contributors and the participants at the workshop. We are also grateful to RIMS (Research Institute for Mathematical Science) in Kyoto University and the Ministry of Education, Science, Sports and Culture, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), 18300003, 2009 for their support. Organizing Committee Editors of the Proceedings Hiroki Suyari (Chiba University, Japan) Atsumi Ohara (Osaka University, Japan) Tatsuaki Wada (Ibaraki University, Japan) Conference photograph

Nonequilibrium Statistical Operator Method and Generalized Kinetic Equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuzemsky, A. L.

2018-01-01

We consider some principal problems of nonequilibrium statistical thermodynamics in the framework of the Zubarev nonequilibrium statistical operator approach. We present a brief comparative analysis of some approaches to describing irreversible processes based on the concept of nonequilibrium Gibbs ensembles and their applicability to describing nonequilibrium processes. We discuss the derivation of generalized kinetic equations for a system in a heat bath. We obtain and analyze a damped Schrödinger-type equation for a dynamical system in a heat bath. We study the dynamical behavior of a particle in a medium taking the dissipation effects into account. We consider the scattering problem for neutrons in a nonequilibrium medium and derive a generalized Van Hove formula. We show that the nonequilibrium statistical operator method is an effective, convenient tool for describing irreversible processes in condensed matter.

A weighted generalized score statistic for comparison of predictive values of diagnostic tests.

PubMed

Kosinski, Andrzej S

2013-03-15

Positive and negative predictive values are important measures of a medical diagnostic test performance. We consider testing equality of two positive or two negative predictive values within a paired design in which all patients receive two diagnostic tests. The existing statistical tests for testing equality of predictive values are either Wald tests based on the multinomial distribution or the empirical Wald and generalized score tests within the generalized estimating equations (GEE) framework. As presented in the literature, these test statistics have considerably complex formulas without clear intuitive insight. We propose their re-formulations that are mathematically equivalent but algebraically simple and intuitive. As is clearly seen with a new re-formulation we presented, the generalized score statistic does not always reduce to the commonly used score statistic in the independent samples case. To alleviate this, we introduce a weighted generalized score (WGS) test statistic that incorporates empirical covariance matrix with newly proposed weights. This statistic is simple to compute, always reduces to the score statistic in the independent samples situation, and preserves type I error better than the other statistics as demonstrated by simulations. Thus, we believe that the proposed WGS statistic is the preferred statistic for testing equality of two predictive values and for corresponding sample size computations. The new formulas of the Wald statistics may be useful for easy computation of confidence intervals for difference of predictive values. The introduced concepts have potential to lead to development of the WGS test statistic in a general GEE setting. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Combining statistical inference and decisions in ecology.

PubMed

Williams, Perry J; Hooten, Mevin B

2016-09-01

Statistical decision theory (SDT) is a sub-field of decision theory that formally incorporates statistical investigation into a decision-theoretic framework to account for uncertainties in a decision problem. SDT provides a unifying analysis of three types of information: statistical results from a data set, knowledge of the consequences of potential choices (i.e., loss), and prior beliefs about a system. SDT links the theoretical development of a large body of statistical methods, including point estimation, hypothesis testing, and confidence interval estimation. The theory and application of SDT have mainly been developed and published in the fields of mathematics, statistics, operations research, and other decision sciences, but have had limited exposure in ecology. Thus, we provide an introduction to SDT for ecologists and describe its utility for linking the conventionally separate tasks of statistical investigation and decision making in a single framework. We describe the basic framework of both Bayesian and frequentist SDT, its traditional use in statistics, and discuss its application to decision problems that occur in ecology. We demonstrate SDT with two types of decisions: Bayesian point estimation and an applied management problem of selecting a prescribed fire rotation for managing a grassland bird species. Central to SDT, and decision theory in general, are loss functions. Thus, we also provide basic guidance and references for constructing loss functions for an SDT problem. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

GeoSegmenter: A statistically learned Chinese word segmenter for the geoscience domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Lan; Du, Youfu; Chen, Gongyang

2015-03-01

Unlike English, the Chinese language has no space between words. Segmenting texts into words, known as the Chinese word segmentation (CWS) problem, thus becomes a fundamental issue for processing Chinese documents and the first step in many text mining applications, including information retrieval, machine translation and knowledge acquisition. However, for the geoscience subject domain, the CWS problem remains unsolved. Although a generic segmenter can be applied to process geoscience documents, they lack the domain specific knowledge and consequently their segmentation accuracy drops dramatically. This motivated us to develop a segmenter specifically for the geoscience subject domain: the GeoSegmenter. We first proposed a generic two-step framework for domain specific CWS. Following this framework, we built GeoSegmenter using conditional random fields, a principled statistical framework for sequence learning. Specifically, GeoSegmenter first identifies general terms by using a generic baseline segmenter. Then it recognises geoscience terms by learning and applying a model that can transform the initial segmentation into the goal segmentation. Empirical experimental results on geoscience documents and benchmark datasets showed that GeoSegmenter could effectively recognise both geoscience terms and general terms.

Phonological outcome of laryngeal framework surgery by different anesthesia protocols: a single-surgeon experience.

PubMed

Kanazawa, Takeharu; Watanabe, Yusuke; Komazawa, Daigo; Indo, Kanako; Misawa, Kiyoshi; Nagatomo, Takafumi; Shimada, Mari; Iino, Yukiko; Ichimura, Keiichi

2014-02-01

Similar to combined arytenoid adduction and medialization laryngoplasty (i.e. combined surgery) under local anesthesia, general anesthesia by intubation or by the laryngeal mask airway (LMA) method significantly improves phonological outcome. Thus, laryngeal framework surgery under general anesthesia is a promising surgical approach for selected patients with unilateral vocal cord paralysis (UVCP). The advantages of laryngeal framework surgery under local anesthesia have been described, but no studies exist concerning the difference in phonological outcome of laryngeal framework surgery performed under general anesthesia. To add new information, we retrospectively investigated the phonological outcome of the combined surgery performed under three different anesthesia protocols. Thirty-nine consecutive patients with severe UVCP underwent the combined surgery under three anesthesia protocols performed by a single surgeon: (1) under general anesthesia by intubation, (2) under general anesthesia using LMA, and (3) under local anesthesia. Under all anesthesia protocols, the vocal cords of most patients could be positioned such that the best vocal outcome could be expected. Statistical analyses demonstrated improved maximum phonation time and mean airflow rate, and grade, roughness, breathiness, asthenia, and strain (GRBAS) scale in all patients, regardless of their anesthesia protocol. Furthermore, of the three protocols, local anesthesia had the shortest operation time.

A mechanistic spatio-temporal framework for modelling individual-to-individual transmission—With an application to the 2014-2015 West Africa Ebola outbreak

PubMed Central

McClelland, Amanda; Zelner, Jon; Streftaris, George; Funk, Sebastian; Metcalf, Jessica; Dalziel, Benjamin D.; Grenfell, Bryan T.

2017-01-01

In recent years there has been growing availability of individual-level spatio-temporal disease data, particularly due to the use of modern communicating devices with GPS tracking functionality. These detailed data have been proven useful for inferring disease transmission to a more refined level than previously. However, there remains a lack of statistically sound frameworks to model the underlying transmission dynamic in a mechanistic manner. Such a development is particularly crucial for enabling a general epidemic predictive framework at the individual level. In this paper we propose a new statistical framework for mechanistically modelling individual-to-individual disease transmission in a landscape with heterogeneous population density. Our methodology is first tested using simulated datasets, validating our inferential machinery. The methodology is subsequently applied to data that describes a regional Ebola outbreak in Western Africa (2014-2015). Our results show that the methods are able to obtain estimates of key epidemiological parameters that are broadly consistent with the literature, while revealing a significantly shorter distance of transmission. More importantly, in contrast to existing approaches, we are able to perform a more general model prediction that takes into account the susceptible population. Finally, our results show that, given reasonable scenarios, the framework can be an effective surrogate for susceptible-explicit individual models which are often computationally challenging. PMID:29084216

A mechanistic spatio-temporal framework for modelling individual-to-individual transmission-With an application to the 2014-2015 West Africa Ebola outbreak.

PubMed

Lau, Max S Y; Gibson, Gavin J; Adrakey, Hola; McClelland, Amanda; Riley, Steven; Zelner, Jon; Streftaris, George; Funk, Sebastian; Metcalf, Jessica; Dalziel, Benjamin D; Grenfell, Bryan T

2017-10-01

In recent years there has been growing availability of individual-level spatio-temporal disease data, particularly due to the use of modern communicating devices with GPS tracking functionality. These detailed data have been proven useful for inferring disease transmission to a more refined level than previously. However, there remains a lack of statistically sound frameworks to model the underlying transmission dynamic in a mechanistic manner. Such a development is particularly crucial for enabling a general epidemic predictive framework at the individual level. In this paper we propose a new statistical framework for mechanistically modelling individual-to-individual disease transmission in a landscape with heterogeneous population density. Our methodology is first tested using simulated datasets, validating our inferential machinery. The methodology is subsequently applied to data that describes a regional Ebola outbreak in Western Africa (2014-2015). Our results show that the methods are able to obtain estimates of key epidemiological parameters that are broadly consistent with the literature, while revealing a significantly shorter distance of transmission. More importantly, in contrast to existing approaches, we are able to perform a more general model prediction that takes into account the susceptible population. Finally, our results show that, given reasonable scenarios, the framework can be an effective surrogate for susceptible-explicit individual models which are often computationally challenging.

A κ-generalized statistical mechanics approach to income analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clementi, F.; Gallegati, M.; Kaniadakis, G.

2009-02-01

This paper proposes a statistical mechanics approach to the analysis of income distribution and inequality. A new distribution function, having its roots in the framework of κ-generalized statistics, is derived that is particularly suitable for describing the whole spectrum of incomes, from the low-middle income region up to the high income Pareto power-law regime. Analytical expressions for the shape, moments and some other basic statistical properties are given. Furthermore, several well-known econometric tools for measuring inequality, which all exist in a closed form, are considered. A method for parameter estimation is also discussed. The model is shown to fit remarkably well the data on personal income for the United States, and the analysis of inequality performed in terms of its parameters is revealed as very powerful.

The l z ( p ) * Person-Fit Statistic in an Unfolding Model Context.

PubMed

Tendeiro, Jorge N

2017-01-01

Although person-fit analysis has a long-standing tradition within item response theory, it has been applied in combination with dominance response models almost exclusively. In this article, a popular log likelihood-based parametric person-fit statistic under the framework of the generalized graded unfolding model is used. Results from a simulation study indicate that the person-fit statistic performed relatively well in detecting midpoint response style patterns and not so well in detecting extreme response style patterns.

Statistics of Smoothed Cosmic Fields in Perturbation Theory. I. Formulation and Useful Formulae in Second-Order Perturbation Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsubara, Takahiko

2003-02-01

We formulate a general method for perturbative evaluations of statistics of smoothed cosmic fields and provide useful formulae for application of the perturbation theory to various statistics. This formalism is an extensive generalization of the method used by Matsubara, who derived a weakly nonlinear formula of the genus statistic in a three-dimensional density field. After describing the general method, we apply the formalism to a series of statistics, including genus statistics, level-crossing statistics, Minkowski functionals, and a density extrema statistic, regardless of the dimensions in which each statistic is defined. The relation between the Minkowski functionals and other geometrical statistics is clarified. These statistics can be applied to several cosmic fields, including three-dimensional density field, three-dimensional velocity field, two-dimensional projected density field, and so forth. The results are detailed for second-order theory of the formalism. The effect of the bias is discussed. The statistics of smoothed cosmic fields as functions of rescaled threshold by volume fraction are discussed in the framework of second-order perturbation theory. In CDM-like models, their functional deviations from linear predictions plotted against the rescaled threshold are generally much smaller than that plotted against the direct threshold. There is still a slight meatball shift against rescaled threshold, which is characterized by asymmetry in depths of troughs in the genus curve. A theory-motivated asymmetry factor in the genus curve is proposed.

Statistical Inference for Data Adaptive Target Parameters.

PubMed

Hubbard, Alan E; Kherad-Pajouh, Sara; van der Laan, Mark J

2016-05-01

Consider one observes n i.i.d. copies of a random variable with a probability distribution that is known to be an element of a particular statistical model. In order to define our statistical target we partition the sample in V equal size sub-samples, and use this partitioning to define V splits in an estimation sample (one of the V subsamples) and corresponding complementary parameter-generating sample. For each of the V parameter-generating samples, we apply an algorithm that maps the sample to a statistical target parameter. We define our sample-split data adaptive statistical target parameter as the average of these V-sample specific target parameters. We present an estimator (and corresponding central limit theorem) of this type of data adaptive target parameter. This general methodology for generating data adaptive target parameters is demonstrated with a number of practical examples that highlight new opportunities for statistical learning from data. This new framework provides a rigorous statistical methodology for both exploratory and confirmatory analysis within the same data. Given that more research is becoming "data-driven", the theory developed within this paper provides a new impetus for a greater involvement of statistical inference into problems that are being increasingly addressed by clever, yet ad hoc pattern finding methods. To suggest such potential, and to verify the predictions of the theory, extensive simulation studies, along with a data analysis based on adaptively determined intervention rules are shown and give insight into how to structure such an approach. The results show that the data adaptive target parameter approach provides a general framework and resulting methodology for data-driven science.

A statistical framework for neuroimaging data analysis based on mutual information estimated via a gaussian copula

PubMed Central

Giordano, Bruno L.; Kayser, Christoph; Rousselet, Guillaume A.; Gross, Joachim; Schyns, Philippe G.

2016-01-01

Abstract We begin by reviewing the statistical framework of information theory as applicable to neuroimaging data analysis. A major factor hindering wider adoption of this framework in neuroimaging is the difficulty of estimating information theoretic quantities in practice. We present a novel estimation technique that combines the statistical theory of copulas with the closed form solution for the entropy of Gaussian variables. This results in a general, computationally efficient, flexible, and robust multivariate statistical framework that provides effect sizes on a common meaningful scale, allows for unified treatment of discrete, continuous, unidimensional and multidimensional variables, and enables direct comparisons of representations from behavioral and brain responses across any recording modality. We validate the use of this estimate as a statistical test within a neuroimaging context, considering both discrete stimulus classes and continuous stimulus features. We also present examples of analyses facilitated by these developments, including application of multivariate analyses to MEG planar magnetic field gradients, and pairwise temporal interactions in evoked EEG responses. We show the benefit of considering the instantaneous temporal derivative together with the raw values of M/EEG signals as a multivariate response, how we can separately quantify modulations of amplitude and direction for vector quantities, and how we can measure the emergence of novel information over time in evoked responses. Open‐source Matlab and Python code implementing the new methods accompanies this article. Hum Brain Mapp 38:1541–1573, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:27860095

The Statistics of Urban Scaling and Their Connection to Zipf’s Law

PubMed Central

Gomez-Lievano, Andres; Youn, HyeJin; Bettencourt, Luís M. A.

2012-01-01

Urban scaling relations characterizing how diverse properties of cities vary on average with their population size have recently been shown to be a general quantitative property of many urban systems around the world. However, in previous studies the statistics of urban indicators were not analyzed in detail, raising important questions about the full characterization of urban properties and how scaling relations may emerge in these larger contexts. Here, we build a self-consistent statistical framework that characterizes the joint probability distributions of urban indicators and city population sizes across an urban system. To develop this framework empirically we use one of the most granular and stochastic urban indicators available, specifically measuring homicides in cities of Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, three nations with high and fast changing rates of violent crime. We use these data to derive the conditional probability of the number of homicides per year given the population size of a city. To do this we use Bayes’ rule together with the estimated conditional probability of city size given their number of homicides and the distribution of total homicides. We then show that scaling laws emerge as expectation values of these conditional statistics. Knowledge of these distributions implies, in turn, a relationship between scaling and population size distribution exponents that can be used to predict Zipf’s exponent from urban indicator statistics. Our results also suggest how a general statistical theory of urban indicators may be constructed from the stochastic dynamics of social interaction processes in cities. PMID:22815745

A framework for grouping nanoparticles based on their measurable characteristics.

PubMed

Sayes, Christie M; Smith, P Alex; Ivanov, Ivan V

2013-01-01

There is a need to take a broader look at nanotoxicological studies. Eventually, the field will demand that some generalizations be made. To begin to address this issue, we posed a question: are metal colloids on the nanometer-size scale a homogeneous group? In general, most people can agree that the physicochemical properties of nanomaterials can be linked and related to their induced toxicological responses. The focus of this study was to determine how a set of selected physicochemical properties of five specific metal-based colloidal materials on the nanometer-size scale - silver, copper, nickel, iron, and zinc - could be used as nanodescriptors that facilitate the grouping of these metal-based colloids. The example of the framework pipeline processing provided in this paper shows the utility of specific statistical and pattern recognition techniques in grouping nanoparticles based on experimental data about their physicochemical properties. Interestingly, the results of the analyses suggest that a seemingly homogeneous group of nanoparticles could be separated into sub-groups depending on interdependencies observed in their nanodescriptors. These particles represent an important category of nanomaterials that are currently mass produced. Each has been reputed to induce toxicological and/or cytotoxicological effects. Here, we propose an experimental methodology coupled with mathematical and statistical modeling that can serve as a prototype for a rigorous framework that aids in the ability to group nanomaterials together and to facilitate the subsequent analysis of trends in data based on quantitative modeling of nanoparticle-specific structure-activity relationships. The computational part of the proposed framework is rather general and can be applied to other groups of nanomaterials as well.

General Framework for Meta-analysis of Rare Variants in Sequencing Association Studies

PubMed Central

Lee, Seunggeun; Teslovich, Tanya M.; Boehnke, Michael; Lin, Xihong

2013-01-01

We propose a general statistical framework for meta-analysis of gene- or region-based multimarker rare variant association tests in sequencing association studies. In genome-wide association studies, single-marker meta-analysis has been widely used to increase statistical power by combining results via regression coefficients and standard errors from different studies. In analysis of rare variants in sequencing studies, region-based multimarker tests are often used to increase power. We propose meta-analysis methods for commonly used gene- or region-based rare variants tests, such as burden tests and variance component tests. Because estimation of regression coefficients of individual rare variants is often unstable or not feasible, the proposed method avoids this difficulty by calculating score statistics instead that only require fitting the null model for each study and then aggregating these score statistics across studies. Our proposed meta-analysis rare variant association tests are conducted based on study-specific summary statistics, specifically score statistics for each variant and between-variant covariance-type (linkage disequilibrium) relationship statistics for each gene or region. The proposed methods are able to incorporate different levels of heterogeneity of genetic effects across studies and are applicable to meta-analysis of multiple ancestry groups. We show that the proposed methods are essentially as powerful as joint analysis by directly pooling individual level genotype data. We conduct extensive simulations to evaluate the performance of our methods by varying levels of heterogeneity across studies, and we apply the proposed methods to meta-analysis of rare variant effects in a multicohort study of the genetics of blood lipid levels. PMID:23768515

Prospective elementary teachers' conceptions of multidigit number: exemplifying a replication framework for mathematics education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobson, Erik; Simpson, Amber

2018-04-01

Replication studies play a critical role in scientific accumulation of knowledge, yet replication studies in mathematics education are rare. In this study, the authors replicated Thanheiser's (Educational Studies in Mathematics 75:241-251, 2010) study of prospective elementary teachers' conceptions of multidigit number and examined the main claim that most elementary pre-service teachers think about digits incorrectly at least some of the time. Results indicated no statistically significant difference in the distribution of conceptions between the original and replication samples and, moreover, no statistically significant differences in the distribution of sub-conceptions among prospective teachers with the most common conception. These results suggest confidence is warranted both in the generality of the main claim and in the utility of the conceptions framework for describing prospective elementary teachers' conceptions of multidigit number. The report further contributes a framework for replication of mathematics education research adapted from the field of psychology.

Manifold parametrization of the left ventricle for a statistical modelling of its complete anatomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gil, D.; Garcia-Barnes, J.; Hernández-Sabate, A.; Marti, E.

2010-03-01

Distortion of Left Ventricle (LV) external anatomy is related to some dysfunctions, such as hypertrophy. The architecture of myocardial fibers determines LV electromechanical activation patterns as well as mechanics. Thus, their joined modelling would allow the design of specific interventions (such as peacemaker implantation and LV remodelling) and therapies (such as resynchronization). On one hand, accurate modelling of external anatomy requires either a dense sampling or a continuous infinite dimensional approach, which requires non-Euclidean statistics. On the other hand, computation of fiber models requires statistics on Riemannian spaces. Most approaches compute separate statistical models for external anatomy and fibers architecture. In this work we propose a general mathematical framework based on differential geometry concepts for computing a statistical model including, both, external and fiber anatomy. Our framework provides a continuous approach to external anatomy supporting standard statistics. We also provide a straightforward formula for the computation of the Riemannian fiber statistics. We have applied our methodology to the computation of complete anatomical atlas of canine hearts from diffusion tensor studies. The orientation of fibers over the average external geometry agrees with the segmental description of orientations reported in the literature.

A Framework for Assessing High School Students' Statistical Reasoning.

PubMed

Chan, Shiau Wei; Ismail, Zaleha; Sumintono, Bambang

2016-01-01

Based on a synthesis of literature, earlier studies, analyses and observations on high school students, this study developed an initial framework for assessing students' statistical reasoning about descriptive statistics. Framework descriptors were established across five levels of statistical reasoning and four key constructs. The former consisted of idiosyncratic reasoning, verbal reasoning, transitional reasoning, procedural reasoning, and integrated process reasoning. The latter include describing data, organizing and reducing data, representing data, and analyzing and interpreting data. In contrast to earlier studies, this initial framework formulated a complete and coherent statistical reasoning framework. A statistical reasoning assessment tool was then constructed from this initial framework. The tool was administered to 10 tenth-grade students in a task-based interview. The initial framework was refined, and the statistical reasoning assessment tool was revised. The ten students then participated in the second task-based interview, and the data obtained were used to validate the framework. The findings showed that the students' statistical reasoning levels were consistent across the four constructs, and this result confirmed the framework's cohesion. Developed to contribute to statistics education, this newly developed statistical reasoning framework provides a guide for planning learning goals and designing instruction and assessments.

Event coincidence analysis for quantifying statistical interrelationships between event time series. On the role of flood events as triggers of epidemic outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donges, J. F.; Schleussner, C.-F.; Siegmund, J. F.; Donner, R. V.

2016-05-01

Studying event time series is a powerful approach for analyzing the dynamics of complex dynamical systems in many fields of science. In this paper, we describe the method of event coincidence analysis to provide a framework for quantifying the strength, directionality and time lag of statistical interrelationships between event series. Event coincidence analysis allows to formulate and test null hypotheses on the origin of the observed interrelationships including tests based on Poisson processes or, more generally, stochastic point processes with a prescribed inter-event time distribution and other higher-order properties. Applying the framework to country-level observational data yields evidence that flood events have acted as triggers of epidemic outbreaks globally since the 1950s. Facing projected future changes in the statistics of climatic extreme events, statistical techniques such as event coincidence analysis will be relevant for investigating the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on human societies and ecosystems worldwide.

Environmental statistics and optimal regulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivak, David; Thomson, Matt

2015-03-01

The precision with which an organism can detect its environment, and the timescale for and statistics of environmental change, will affect the suitability of different strategies for regulating protein levels in response to environmental inputs. We propose a general framework--here applied to the enzymatic regulation of metabolism in response to changing nutrient concentrations--to predict the optimal regulatory strategy given the statistics of fluctuations in the environment and measurement apparatus, and the costs associated with enzyme production. We find: (i) relative convexity of enzyme expression cost and benefit influences the fitness of thresholding or graded responses; (ii) intermediate levels of measurement uncertainty call for a sophisticated Bayesian decision rule; and (iii) in dynamic contexts, intermediate levels of uncertainty call for retaining memory of the past. Statistical properties of the environment, such as variability and correlation times, set optimal biochemical parameters, such as thresholds and decay rates in signaling pathways. Our framework provides a theoretical basis for interpreting molecular signal processing algorithms and a classification scheme that organizes known regulatory strategies and may help conceptualize heretofore unknown ones.

A statistical framework for neuroimaging data analysis based on mutual information estimated via a gaussian copula.

PubMed

Ince, Robin A A; Giordano, Bruno L; Kayser, Christoph; Rousselet, Guillaume A; Gross, Joachim; Schyns, Philippe G

2017-03-01

We begin by reviewing the statistical framework of information theory as applicable to neuroimaging data analysis. A major factor hindering wider adoption of this framework in neuroimaging is the difficulty of estimating information theoretic quantities in practice. We present a novel estimation technique that combines the statistical theory of copulas with the closed form solution for the entropy of Gaussian variables. This results in a general, computationally efficient, flexible, and robust multivariate statistical framework that provides effect sizes on a common meaningful scale, allows for unified treatment of discrete, continuous, unidimensional and multidimensional variables, and enables direct comparisons of representations from behavioral and brain responses across any recording modality. We validate the use of this estimate as a statistical test within a neuroimaging context, considering both discrete stimulus classes and continuous stimulus features. We also present examples of analyses facilitated by these developments, including application of multivariate analyses to MEG planar magnetic field gradients, and pairwise temporal interactions in evoked EEG responses. We show the benefit of considering the instantaneous temporal derivative together with the raw values of M/EEG signals as a multivariate response, how we can separately quantify modulations of amplitude and direction for vector quantities, and how we can measure the emergence of novel information over time in evoked responses. Open-source Matlab and Python code implementing the new methods accompanies this article. Hum Brain Mapp 38:1541-1573, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. 2016 The Authors Human Brain Mapping Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

On extracting design principles from biology: I. Method-General answers to high-level design questions for bioinspired robots.

PubMed

Haberland, M; Kim, S

2015-02-02

When millions of years of evolution suggest a particular design solution, we may be tempted to abandon traditional design methods and copy the biological example. However, biological solutions do not often translate directly into the engineering domain, and even when they do, copying eliminates the opportunity to improve. A better approach is to extract design principles relevant to the task of interest, incorporate them in engineering designs, and vet these candidates against others. This paper presents the first general framework for determining whether biologically inspired relationships between design input variables and output objectives and constraints are applicable to a variety of engineering systems. Using optimization and statistics to generalize the results beyond a particular system, the framework overcomes shortcomings observed of ad hoc methods, particularly those used in the challenging study of legged locomotion. The utility of the framework is demonstrated in a case study of the relative running efficiency of rotary-kneed and telescoping-legged robots.

Selection vector filter framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lukac, Rastislav; Plataniotis, Konstantinos N.; Smolka, Bogdan; Venetsanopoulos, Anastasios N.

2003-10-01

We provide a unified framework of nonlinear vector techniques outputting the lowest ranked vector. The proposed framework constitutes a generalized filter class for multichannel signal processing. A new class of nonlinear selection filters are based on the robust order-statistic theory and the minimization of the weighted distance function to other input samples. The proposed method can be designed to perform a variety of filtering operations including previously developed filtering techniques such as vector median, basic vector directional filter, directional distance filter, weighted vector median filters and weighted directional filters. A wide range of filtering operations is guaranteed by the filter structure with two independent weight vectors for angular and distance domains of the vector space. In order to adapt the filter parameters to varying signal and noise statistics, we provide also the generalized optimization algorithms taking the advantage of the weighted median filters and the relationship between standard median filter and vector median filter. Thus, we can deal with both statistical and deterministic aspects of the filter design process. It will be shown that the proposed method holds the required properties such as the capability of modelling the underlying system in the application at hand, the robustness with respect to errors in the model of underlying system, the availability of the training procedure and finally, the simplicity of filter representation, analysis, design and implementation. Simulation studies also indicate that the new filters are computationally attractive and have excellent performance in environments corrupted by bit errors and impulsive noise.

A Framework for Assessing High School Students' Statistical Reasoning

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Based on a synthesis of literature, earlier studies, analyses and observations on high school students, this study developed an initial framework for assessing students’ statistical reasoning about descriptive statistics. Framework descriptors were established across five levels of statistical reasoning and four key constructs. The former consisted of idiosyncratic reasoning, verbal reasoning, transitional reasoning, procedural reasoning, and integrated process reasoning. The latter include describing data, organizing and reducing data, representing data, and analyzing and interpreting data. In contrast to earlier studies, this initial framework formulated a complete and coherent statistical reasoning framework. A statistical reasoning assessment tool was then constructed from this initial framework. The tool was administered to 10 tenth-grade students in a task-based interview. The initial framework was refined, and the statistical reasoning assessment tool was revised. The ten students then participated in the second task-based interview, and the data obtained were used to validate the framework. The findings showed that the students’ statistical reasoning levels were consistent across the four constructs, and this result confirmed the framework’s cohesion. Developed to contribute to statistics education, this newly developed statistical reasoning framework provides a guide for planning learning goals and designing instruction and assessments. PMID:27812091

A new statistical method for transfer coefficient calculations in the framework of the general multiple-compartment model of transport for radionuclides in biological systems.

PubMed

Garcia, F; Arruda-Neto, J D; Manso, M V; Helene, O M; Vanin, V R; Rodriguez, O; Mesa, J; Likhachev, V P; Filho, J W; Deppman, A; Perez, G; Guzman, F; de Camargo, S P

1999-10-01

A new and simple statistical procedure (STATFLUX) for the calculation of transfer coefficients of radionuclide transport to animals and plants is proposed. The method is based on the general multiple-compartment model, which uses a system of linear equations involving geometrical volume considerations. By using experimentally available curves of radionuclide concentrations versus time, for each animal compartment (organs), flow parameters were estimated by employing a least-squares procedure, whose consistency is tested. Some numerical results are presented in order to compare the STATFLUX transfer coefficients with those from other works and experimental data.

Generalized Full-Information Item Bifactor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cai, Li; Yang, Ji Seung; Hansen, Mark

2011-01-01

Full-information item bifactor analysis is an important statistical method in psychological and educational measurement. Current methods are limited to single-group analysis and inflexible in the types of item response models supported. We propose a flexible multiple-group item bifactor analysis framework that supports a variety of…

Genomic similarity and kernel methods I: advancements by building on mathematical and statistical foundations.

PubMed

Schaid, Daniel J

2010-01-01

Measures of genomic similarity are the basis of many statistical analytic methods. We review the mathematical and statistical basis of similarity methods, particularly based on kernel methods. A kernel function converts information for a pair of subjects to a quantitative value representing either similarity (larger values meaning more similar) or distance (smaller values meaning more similar), with the requirement that it must create a positive semidefinite matrix when applied to all pairs of subjects. This review emphasizes the wide range of statistical methods and software that can be used when similarity is based on kernel methods, such as nonparametric regression, linear mixed models and generalized linear mixed models, hierarchical models, score statistics, and support vector machines. The mathematical rigor for these methods is summarized, as is the mathematical framework for making kernels. This review provides a framework to move from intuitive and heuristic approaches to define genomic similarities to more rigorous methods that can take advantage of powerful statistical modeling and existing software. A companion paper reviews novel approaches to creating kernels that might be useful for genomic analyses, providing insights with examples [1]. Copyright © 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

A generalized statistical model for the size distribution of wealth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clementi, F.; Gallegati, M.; Kaniadakis, G.

2012-12-01

In a recent paper in this journal (Clementi et al 2009 J. Stat. Mech. P02037), we proposed a new, physically motivated, distribution function for modeling individual incomes, having its roots in the framework of the κ-generalized statistical mechanics. The performance of the κ-generalized distribution was checked against real data on personal income for the United States in 2003. In this paper we extend our previous model so as to be able to account for the distribution of wealth. Probabilistic functions and inequality measures of this generalized model for wealth distribution are obtained in closed form. In order to check the validity of the proposed model, we analyze the US household wealth distributions from 1984 to 2009 and conclude an excellent agreement with the data that is superior to any other model already known in the literature.

Steepest entropy ascent model for far-nonequilibrium thermodynamics: Unified implementation of the maximum entropy production principle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beretta, Gian Paolo

2014-10-01

By suitable reformulations, we cast the mathematical frameworks of several well-known different approaches to the description of nonequilibrium dynamics into a unified formulation valid in all these contexts, which extends to such frameworks the concept of steepest entropy ascent (SEA) dynamics introduced by the present author in previous works on quantum thermodynamics. Actually, the present formulation constitutes a generalization also for the quantum thermodynamics framework. The analysis emphasizes that in the SEA modeling principle a key role is played by the geometrical metric with respect to which to measure the length of a trajectory in state space. In the near-thermodynamic-equilibrium limit, the metric tensor is directly related to the Onsager's generalized resistivity tensor. Therefore, through the identification of a suitable metric field which generalizes the Onsager generalized resistance to the arbitrarily far-nonequilibrium domain, most of the existing theories of nonequilibrium thermodynamics can be cast in such a way that the state exhibits the spontaneous tendency to evolve in state space along the path of SEA compatible with the conservation constraints and the boundary conditions. The resulting unified family of SEA dynamical models is intrinsically and strongly consistent with the second law of thermodynamics. The non-negativity of the entropy production is a general and readily proved feature of SEA dynamics. In several of the different approaches to nonequilibrium description we consider here, the SEA concept has not been investigated before. We believe it defines the precise meaning and the domain of general validity of the so-called maximum entropy production principle. Therefore, it is hoped that the present unifying approach may prove useful in providing a fresh basis for effective, thermodynamically consistent, numerical models and theoretical treatments of irreversible conservative relaxation towards equilibrium from far nonequilibrium states. The mathematical frameworks we consider are the following: (A) statistical or information-theoretic models of relaxation; (B) small-scale and rarefied gas dynamics (i.e., kinetic models for the Boltzmann equation); (C) rational extended thermodynamics, macroscopic nonequilibrium thermodynamics, and chemical kinetics; (D) mesoscopic nonequilibrium thermodynamics, continuum mechanics with fluctuations; and (E) quantum statistical mechanics, quantum thermodynamics, mesoscopic nonequilibrium quantum thermodynamics, and intrinsic quantum thermodynamics.

VALUE - A Framework to Validate Downscaling Approaches for Climate Change Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maraun, Douglas; Widmann, Martin; Gutiérrez, José M.; Kotlarski, Sven; Chandler, Richard E.; Hertig, Elke; Wibig, Joanna; Huth, Radan; Wilke, Renate A. I.

2015-04-01

VALUE is an open European network to validate and compare downscaling methods for climate change research. VALUE aims to foster collaboration and knowledge exchange between climatologists, impact modellers, statisticians, and stakeholders to establish an interdisciplinary downscaling community. A key deliverable of VALUE is the development of a systematic validation framework to enable the assessment and comparison of both dynamical and statistical downscaling methods. Here, we present the key ingredients of this framework. VALUE's main approach to validation is user-focused: starting from a specific user problem, a validation tree guides the selection of relevant validation indices and performance measures. Several experiments have been designed to isolate specific points in the downscaling procedure where problems may occur: what is the isolated downscaling skill? How do statistical and dynamical methods compare? How do methods perform at different spatial scales? Do methods fail in representing regional climate change? How is the overall representation of regional climate, including errors inherited from global climate models? The framework will be the basis for a comprehensive community-open downscaling intercomparison study, but is intended also to provide general guidance for other validation studies.

VALUE: A framework to validate downscaling approaches for climate change studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maraun, Douglas; Widmann, Martin; Gutiérrez, José M.; Kotlarski, Sven; Chandler, Richard E.; Hertig, Elke; Wibig, Joanna; Huth, Radan; Wilcke, Renate A. I.

2015-01-01

VALUE is an open European network to validate and compare downscaling methods for climate change research. VALUE aims to foster collaboration and knowledge exchange between climatologists, impact modellers, statisticians, and stakeholders to establish an interdisciplinary downscaling community. A key deliverable of VALUE is the development of a systematic validation framework to enable the assessment and comparison of both dynamical and statistical downscaling methods. In this paper, we present the key ingredients of this framework. VALUE's main approach to validation is user- focused: starting from a specific user problem, a validation tree guides the selection of relevant validation indices and performance measures. Several experiments have been designed to isolate specific points in the downscaling procedure where problems may occur: what is the isolated downscaling skill? How do statistical and dynamical methods compare? How do methods perform at different spatial scales? Do methods fail in representing regional climate change? How is the overall representation of regional climate, including errors inherited from global climate models? The framework will be the basis for a comprehensive community-open downscaling intercomparison study, but is intended also to provide general guidance for other validation studies.

Quantum generalized observables framework for psychological data: a case of preference reversals in US elections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khrennikova, Polina; Haven, Emmanuel

2017-10-01

Politics is regarded as a vital area of public choice theory, and it is strongly relying on the assumptions of voters' rationality and as such, stability of preferences. However, recent opinion polls and real election outcomes in the USA have shown that voters often engage in `ticket splitting', by exhibiting contrasting party support in Congressional and Presidential elections (cf. Khrennikova 2014 Phys. Scripta T163, 014010 (doi:10.1088/0031-8949/2014/T163/014010); Khrennikova & Haven 2016 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 374, 20150106 (doi:10.1098/rsta.2015.0106); Smith et al. 1999 Am. J. Polit. Sci. 43, 737-764 (doi:10.2307/2991833)). Such types of preference reversals cannot be mathematically captured via the formula of total probability, thus showing that voters' decision making is at variance with the classical probabilistic information processing framework. In recent work, we have shown that quantum probability describes well the violation of Bayesian rationality in statistical data of voting in US elections, through the so-called interference effects of probability amplitudes. This paper is proposing a novel generalized observables framework of voting behaviour, by using the statistical data collected and analysed in previous studies by Khrennikova (Khrennikova 2015 Lect. Notes Comput. Sci. 8951, 196-209) and Khrennikova & Haven (Khrennikova & Haven 2016 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 374, 20150106 (doi:10.1098/rsta.2015.0106)). This framework aims to overcome the main problems associated with the quantum probabilistic representation of psychological data, namely the non-double stochasticity of transition probability matrices. We develop a simplified construction of generalized positive operator valued measures by formulating special non-orthonormal bases with respect to these operators. This article is part of the themed issue `Second quantum revolution: foundational questions'.

Whose statistical reasoning is facilitated by a causal structure intervention?

PubMed

McNair, Simon; Feeney, Aidan

2015-02-01

People often struggle when making Bayesian probabilistic estimates on the basis of competing sources of statistical evidence. Recently, Krynski and Tenenbaum (Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 136, 430-450, 2007) proposed that a causal Bayesian framework accounts for peoples' errors in Bayesian reasoning and showed that, by clarifying the causal relations among the pieces of evidence, judgments on a classic statistical reasoning problem could be significantly improved. We aimed to understand whose statistical reasoning is facilitated by the causal structure intervention. In Experiment 1, although we observed causal facilitation effects overall, the effect was confined to participants high in numeracy. We did not find an overall facilitation effect in Experiment 2 but did replicate the earlier interaction between numerical ability and the presence or absence of causal content. This effect held when we controlled for general cognitive ability and thinking disposition. Our results suggest that clarifying causal structure facilitates Bayesian judgments, but only for participants with sufficient understanding of basic concepts in probability and statistics.

Statistical tests for detecting associations with groups of genetic variants: generalization, evaluation, and implementation

PubMed Central

Ferguson, John; Wheeler, William; Fu, YiPing; Prokunina-Olsson, Ludmila; Zhao, Hongyu; Sampson, Joshua

2013-01-01

With recent advances in sequencing, genotyping arrays, and imputation, GWAS now aim to identify associations with rare and uncommon genetic variants. Here, we describe and evaluate a class of statistics, generalized score statistics (GSS), that can test for an association between a group of genetic variants and a phenotype. GSS are a simple weighted sum of single-variant statistics and their cross-products. We show that the majority of statistics currently used to detect associations with rare variants are equivalent to choosing a specific set of weights within this framework. We then evaluate the power of various weighting schemes as a function of variant characteristics, such as MAF, the proportion associated with the phenotype, and the direction of effect. Ultimately, we find that two classical tests are robust and powerful, but details are provided as to when other GSS may perform favorably. The software package CRaVe is available at our website (http://dceg.cancer.gov/bb/tools/crave). PMID:23092956

A general framework for parametric survival analysis.

PubMed

Crowther, Michael J; Lambert, Paul C

2014-12-30

Parametric survival models are being increasingly used as an alternative to the Cox model in biomedical research. Through direct modelling of the baseline hazard function, we can gain greater understanding of the risk profile of patients over time, obtaining absolute measures of risk. Commonly used parametric survival models, such as the Weibull, make restrictive assumptions of the baseline hazard function, such as monotonicity, which is often violated in clinical datasets. In this article, we extend the general framework of parametric survival models proposed by Crowther and Lambert (Journal of Statistical Software 53:12, 2013), to incorporate relative survival, and robust and cluster robust standard errors. We describe the general framework through three applications to clinical datasets, in particular, illustrating the use of restricted cubic splines, modelled on the log hazard scale, to provide a highly flexible survival modelling framework. Through the use of restricted cubic splines, we can derive the cumulative hazard function analytically beyond the boundary knots, resulting in a combined analytic/numerical approach, which substantially improves the estimation process compared with only using numerical integration. User-friendly Stata software is provided, which significantly extends parametric survival models available in standard software. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Stochastic modeling of sunshine number data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brabec, Marek; Paulescu, Marius; Badescu, Viorel

2013-11-01

In this paper, we will present a unified statistical modeling framework for estimation and forecasting sunshine number (SSN) data. Sunshine number has been proposed earlier to describe sunshine time series in qualitative terms (Theor Appl Climatol 72 (2002) 127-136) and since then, it was shown to be useful not only for theoretical purposes but also for practical considerations, e.g. those related to the development of photovoltaic energy production. Statistical modeling and prediction of SSN as a binary time series has been challenging problem, however. Our statistical model for SSN time series is based on an underlying stochastic process formulation of Markov chain type. We will show how its transition probabilities can be efficiently estimated within logistic regression framework. In fact, our logistic Markovian model can be relatively easily fitted via maximum likelihood approach. This is optimal in many respects and it also enables us to use formalized statistical inference theory to obtain not only the point estimates of transition probabilities and their functions of interest, but also related uncertainties, as well as to test of various hypotheses of practical interest, etc. It is straightforward to deal with non-homogeneous transition probabilities in this framework. Very importantly from both physical and practical points of view, logistic Markov model class allows us to test hypotheses about how SSN dependents on various external covariates (e.g. elevation angle, solar time, etc.) and about details of the dynamic model (order and functional shape of the Markov kernel, etc.). Therefore, using generalized additive model approach (GAM), we can fit and compare models of various complexity which insist on keeping physical interpretation of the statistical model and its parts. After introducing the Markovian model and general approach for identification of its parameters, we will illustrate its use and performance on high resolution SSN data from the Solar Radiation Monitoring Station of the West University of Timisoara.

Stochastic modeling of sunshine number data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brabec, Marek, E-mail: mbrabec@cs.cas.cz; Paulescu, Marius; Badescu, Viorel

2013-11-13

In this paper, we will present a unified statistical modeling framework for estimation and forecasting sunshine number (SSN) data. Sunshine number has been proposed earlier to describe sunshine time series in qualitative terms (Theor Appl Climatol 72 (2002) 127-136) and since then, it was shown to be useful not only for theoretical purposes but also for practical considerations, e.g. those related to the development of photovoltaic energy production. Statistical modeling and prediction of SSN as a binary time series has been challenging problem, however. Our statistical model for SSN time series is based on an underlying stochastic process formulation ofmore » Markov chain type. We will show how its transition probabilities can be efficiently estimated within logistic regression framework. In fact, our logistic Markovian model can be relatively easily fitted via maximum likelihood approach. This is optimal in many respects and it also enables us to use formalized statistical inference theory to obtain not only the point estimates of transition probabilities and their functions of interest, but also related uncertainties, as well as to test of various hypotheses of practical interest, etc. It is straightforward to deal with non-homogeneous transition probabilities in this framework. Very importantly from both physical and practical points of view, logistic Markov model class allows us to test hypotheses about how SSN dependents on various external covariates (e.g. elevation angle, solar time, etc.) and about details of the dynamic model (order and functional shape of the Markov kernel, etc.). Therefore, using generalized additive model approach (GAM), we can fit and compare models of various complexity which insist on keeping physical interpretation of the statistical model and its parts. After introducing the Markovian model and general approach for identification of its parameters, we will illustrate its use and performance on high resolution SSN data from the Solar Radiation Monitoring Station of the West University of Timisoara.« less

Validation of surrogate endpoints in advanced solid tumors: systematic review of statistical methods, results, and implications for policy makers.

PubMed

Ciani, Oriana; Davis, Sarah; Tappenden, Paul; Garside, Ruth; Stein, Ken; Cantrell, Anna; Saad, Everardo D; Buyse, Marc; Taylor, Rod S

2014-07-01

Licensing of, and coverage decisions on, new therapies should rely on evidence from patient-relevant endpoints such as overall survival (OS). Nevertheless, evidence from surrogate endpoints may also be useful, as it may not only expedite the regulatory approval of new therapies but also inform coverage decisions. It is, therefore, essential that candidate surrogate endpoints be properly validated. However, there is no consensus on statistical methods for such validation and on how the evidence thus derived should be applied by policy makers. We review current statistical approaches to surrogate-endpoint validation based on meta-analysis in various advanced-tumor settings. We assessed the suitability of two surrogates (progression-free survival [PFS] and time-to-progression [TTP]) using three current validation frameworks: Elston and Taylor's framework, the German Institute of Quality and Efficiency in Health Care's (IQWiG) framework and the Biomarker-Surrogacy Evaluation Schema (BSES3). A wide variety of statistical methods have been used to assess surrogacy. The strength of the association between the two surrogates and OS was generally low. The level of evidence (observation-level versus treatment-level) available varied considerably by cancer type, by evaluation tools and was not always consistent even within one specific cancer type. Not in all solid tumors the treatment-level association between PFS or TTP and OS has been investigated. According to IQWiG's framework, only PFS achieved acceptable evidence of surrogacy in metastatic colorectal and ovarian cancer treated with cytotoxic agents. Our study emphasizes the challenges of surrogate-endpoint validation and the importance of building consensus on the development of evaluation frameworks.

Why environmental scientists are becoming Bayesians

Treesearch

James S. Clark

2005-01-01

Advances in computational statistics provide a general framework for the high dimensional models typically needed for ecological inference and prediction. Hierarchical Bayes (HB) represents a modelling structure with capacity to exploit diverse sources of information, to accommodate influences that are unknown (or unknowable), and to draw inference on large numbers of...

A Bayesian Missing Data Framework for Generalized Multiple Outcome Mixed Treatment Comparisons

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hong, Hwanhee; Chu, Haitao; Zhang, Jing; Carlin, Bradley P.

2016-01-01

Bayesian statistical approaches to mixed treatment comparisons (MTCs) are becoming more popular because of their flexibility and interpretability. Many randomized clinical trials report multiple outcomes with possible inherent correlations. Moreover, MTC data are typically sparse (although richer than standard meta-analysis, comparing only two…

A Framework to Learn Physics from Atomically Resolved Images

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vlcek, L.; Maksov, A.; Pan, M.

Here, we present a generalized framework for physics extraction, i.e., knowledge, from atomically resolved images, and show its utility by applying it to a model system of segregation of chalcogen atoms in an FeSe 0.45Te 0.55 superconductor system. We emphasize that the framework can be used for any imaging data for which a generative physical model exists. Consider that a generative physical model can produce a very large number of configurations, not all of which are observable. By applying a microscope function to a sub-set of this generated data, we form a simulated dataset on which statistics can be computed.

Incorporating geologic information into hydraulic tomography: A general framework based on geostatistical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zha, Yuanyuan; Yeh, Tian-Chyi J.; Illman, Walter A.; Onoe, Hironori; Mok, Chin Man W.; Wen, Jet-Chau; Huang, Shao-Yang; Wang, Wenke

2017-04-01

Hydraulic tomography (HT) has become a mature aquifer test technology over the last two decades. It collects nonredundant information of aquifer heterogeneity by sequentially stressing the aquifer at different wells and collecting aquifer responses at other wells during each stress. The collected information is then interpreted by inverse models. Among these models, the geostatistical approaches, built upon the Bayesian framework, first conceptualize hydraulic properties to be estimated as random fields, which are characterized by means and covariance functions. They then use the spatial statistics as prior information with the aquifer response data to estimate the spatial distribution of the hydraulic properties at a site. Since the spatial statistics describe the generic spatial structures of the geologic media at the site rather than site-specific ones (e.g., known spatial distributions of facies, faults, or paleochannels), the estimates are often not optimal. To improve the estimates, we introduce a general statistical framework, which allows the inclusion of site-specific spatial patterns of geologic features. Subsequently, we test this approach with synthetic numerical experiments. Results show that this approach, using conditional mean and covariance that reflect site-specific large-scale geologic features, indeed improves the HT estimates. Afterward, this approach is applied to HT surveys at a kilometer-scale-fractured granite field site with a distinct fault zone. We find that by including fault information from outcrops and boreholes for HT analysis, the estimated hydraulic properties are improved. The improved estimates subsequently lead to better prediction of flow during a different pumping test at the site.

Modeling Error Distributions of Growth Curve Models through Bayesian Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Zhiyong

2016-01-01

Growth curve models are widely used in social and behavioral sciences. However, typical growth curve models often assume that the errors are normally distributed although non-normal data may be even more common than normal data. In order to avoid possible statistical inference problems in blindly assuming normality, a general Bayesian framework is…

Power Analysis for Complex Mediational Designs Using Monte Carlo Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thoemmes, Felix; MacKinnon, David P.; Reiser, Mark R.

2010-01-01

Applied researchers often include mediation effects in applications of advanced methods such as latent variable models and linear growth curve models. Guidance on how to estimate statistical power to detect mediation for these models has not yet been addressed in the literature. We describe a general framework for power analyses for complex…

Perceptions of Financial Aid: Black Students at a Predominantly White Institution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tichavakunda, Antar A.

2017-01-01

This study provides qualitative context for statistics concerning Black college students and financial aid. Using the financial nexus model as a framework, this research draws upon interviews with 29 Black juniors and seniors at a selective, -private, and predominantly White university. The data suggest that students -generally exhibited high…

Initial Systematic Investigations of the Weakly Coupled Free Fermionic Heterotic String Landscape Statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renner, Timothy

2011-12-01

A C++ framework was constructed with the explicit purpose of systematically generating string models using the Weakly Coupled Free Fermionic Heterotic String (WCFFHS) method. The software, optimized for speed, generality, and ease of use, has been used to conduct preliminary systematic investigations of WCFFHS vacua. Documentation for this framework is provided in the Appendix. After an introduction to theoretical and computational aspects of WCFFHS model building, a study of ten-dimensional WCFFHS models is presented. Degeneracies among equivalent expressions of each of the known models are investigated and classified. A study of more phenomenologically realistic four-dimensional models based on the well known "NAHE" set is then presented, with statistics being reported on gauge content, matter representations, and space-time supersymmetries. The final study is a parallel to the NAHE study in which a variation of the NAHE set is systematically extended and examined statistically. Special attention is paid to models with "mirroring"---identical observable and hidden sector gauge groups and matter representations.

Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions: Setting the scene

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guisan, Antoine; Edwards, T.C.; Hastie, T.

2002-01-01

An important statistical development of the last 30 years has been the advance in regression analysis provided by generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs). Here we introduce a series of papers prepared within the framework of an international workshop entitled: Advances in GLMs/GAMs modeling: from species distribution to environmental management, held in Riederalp, Switzerland, 6-11 August 2001. We first discuss some general uses of statistical models in ecology, as well as provide a short review of several key examples of the use of GLMs and GAMs in ecological modeling efforts. We next present an overview of GLMs and GAMs, and discuss some of their related statistics used for predictor selection, model diagnostics, and evaluation. Included is a discussion of several new approaches applicable to GLMs and GAMs, such as ridge regression, an alternative to stepwise selection of predictors, and methods for the identification of interactions by a combined use of regression trees and several other approaches. We close with an overview of the papers and how we feel they advance our understanding of their application to ecological modeling. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A Framework for the Optimization of Discrete-Event Simulation Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joshi, B. D.; Unal, R.; White, N. H.; Morris, W. D.

1996-01-01

With the growing use of computer modeling and simulation, in all aspects of engineering, the scope of traditional optimization has to be extended to include simulation models. Some unique aspects have to be addressed while optimizing via stochastic simulation models. The optimization procedure has to explicitly account for the randomness inherent in the stochastic measures predicted by the model. This paper outlines a general purpose framework for optimization of terminating discrete-event simulation models. The methodology combines a chance constraint approach for problem formulation, together with standard statistical estimation and analyses techniques. The applicability of the optimization framework is illustrated by minimizing the operation and support resources of a launch vehicle, through a simulation model.

Computational Approaches to the Chemical Equilibrium Constant in Protein-ligand Binding.

PubMed

Montalvo-Acosta, Joel José; Cecchini, Marco

2016-12-01

The physiological role played by protein-ligand recognition has motivated the development of several computational approaches to the ligand binding affinity. Some of them, termed rigorous, have a strong theoretical foundation but involve too much computation to be generally useful. Some others alleviate the computational burden by introducing strong approximations and/or empirical calibrations, which also limit their general use. Most importantly, there is no straightforward correlation between the predictive power and the level of approximation introduced. Here, we present a general framework for the quantitative interpretation of protein-ligand binding based on statistical mechanics. Within this framework, we re-derive self-consistently the fundamental equations of some popular approaches to the binding constant and pinpoint the inherent approximations. Our analysis represents a first step towards the development of variants with optimum accuracy/efficiency ratio for each stage of the drug discovery pipeline. © 2016 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

On the stability and dynamics of stochastic spiking neuron models: Nonlinear Hawkes process and point process GLMs

PubMed Central

Truccolo, Wilson

2017-01-01

Point process generalized linear models (PP-GLMs) provide an important statistical framework for modeling spiking activity in single-neurons and neuronal networks. Stochastic stability is essential when sampling from these models, as done in computational neuroscience to analyze statistical properties of neuronal dynamics and in neuro-engineering to implement closed-loop applications. Here we show, however, that despite passing common goodness-of-fit tests, PP-GLMs estimated from data are often unstable, leading to divergent firing rates. The inclusion of absolute refractory periods is not a satisfactory solution since the activity then typically settles into unphysiological rates. To address these issues, we derive a framework for determining the existence and stability of fixed points of the expected conditional intensity function (CIF) for general PP-GLMs. Specifically, in nonlinear Hawkes PP-GLMs, the CIF is expressed as a function of the previous spike history and exogenous inputs. We use a mean-field quasi-renewal (QR) approximation that decomposes spike history effects into the contribution of the last spike and an average of the CIF over all spike histories prior to the last spike. Fixed points for stationary rates are derived as self-consistent solutions of integral equations. Bifurcation analysis and the number of fixed points predict that the original models can show stable, divergent, and metastable (fragile) dynamics. For fragile models, fluctuations of the single-neuron dynamics predict expected divergence times after which rates approach unphysiologically high values. This metric can be used to estimate the probability of rates to remain physiological for given time periods, e.g., for simulation purposes. We demonstrate the use of the stability framework using simulated single-neuron examples and neurophysiological recordings. Finally, we show how to adapt PP-GLM estimation procedures to guarantee model stability. Overall, our results provide a stability framework for data-driven PP-GLMs and shed new light on the stochastic dynamics of state-of-the-art statistical models of neuronal spiking activity. PMID:28234899

On the stability and dynamics of stochastic spiking neuron models: Nonlinear Hawkes process and point process GLMs.

PubMed

Gerhard, Felipe; Deger, Moritz; Truccolo, Wilson

2017-02-01

Point process generalized linear models (PP-GLMs) provide an important statistical framework for modeling spiking activity in single-neurons and neuronal networks. Stochastic stability is essential when sampling from these models, as done in computational neuroscience to analyze statistical properties of neuronal dynamics and in neuro-engineering to implement closed-loop applications. Here we show, however, that despite passing common goodness-of-fit tests, PP-GLMs estimated from data are often unstable, leading to divergent firing rates. The inclusion of absolute refractory periods is not a satisfactory solution since the activity then typically settles into unphysiological rates. To address these issues, we derive a framework for determining the existence and stability of fixed points of the expected conditional intensity function (CIF) for general PP-GLMs. Specifically, in nonlinear Hawkes PP-GLMs, the CIF is expressed as a function of the previous spike history and exogenous inputs. We use a mean-field quasi-renewal (QR) approximation that decomposes spike history effects into the contribution of the last spike and an average of the CIF over all spike histories prior to the last spike. Fixed points for stationary rates are derived as self-consistent solutions of integral equations. Bifurcation analysis and the number of fixed points predict that the original models can show stable, divergent, and metastable (fragile) dynamics. For fragile models, fluctuations of the single-neuron dynamics predict expected divergence times after which rates approach unphysiologically high values. This metric can be used to estimate the probability of rates to remain physiological for given time periods, e.g., for simulation purposes. We demonstrate the use of the stability framework using simulated single-neuron examples and neurophysiological recordings. Finally, we show how to adapt PP-GLM estimation procedures to guarantee model stability. Overall, our results provide a stability framework for data-driven PP-GLMs and shed new light on the stochastic dynamics of state-of-the-art statistical models of neuronal spiking activity.

General cognitive principles for learning structure in time and space.

PubMed

Goldstein, Michael H; Waterfall, Heidi R; Lotem, Arnon; Halpern, Joseph Y; Schwade, Jennifer A; Onnis, Luca; Edelman, Shimon

2010-06-01

How are hierarchically structured sequences of objects, events or actions learned from experience and represented in the brain? When several streams of regularities present themselves, which will be learned and which ignored? Can statistical regularities take effect on their own, or are additional factors such as behavioral outcomes expected to influence statistical learning? Answers to these questions are starting to emerge through a convergence of findings from naturalistic observations, behavioral experiments, neurobiological studies, and computational analyses and simulations. We propose that a small set of principles are at work in every situation that involves learning of structure from patterns of experience and outline a general framework that accounts for such learning. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probing the Fluctuations of Optical Properties in Time-Resolved Spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randi, Francesco; Esposito, Martina; Giusti, Francesca; Misochko, Oleg; Parmigiani, Fulvio; Fausti, Daniele; Eckstein, Martin

2017-11-01

We show that, in optical pump-probe experiments on bulk samples, the statistical distribution of the intensity of ultrashort light pulses after interaction with a nonequilibrium complex material can be used to measure the time-dependent noise of the current in the system. We illustrate the general arguments for a photoexcited Peierls material. The transient noise spectroscopy allows us to measure to what extent electronic degrees of freedom dynamically obey the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, and how well they thermalize during the coherent lattice vibrations. The proposed statistical measurement developed here provides a new general framework to retrieve dynamical information on the excited distributions in nonequilibrium experiments, which could be extended to other degrees of freedom of magnetic or vibrational origin.

Theory-based Bayesian models of inductive learning and reasoning.

PubMed

Tenenbaum, Joshua B; Griffiths, Thomas L; Kemp, Charles

2006-07-01

Inductive inference allows humans to make powerful generalizations from sparse data when learning about word meanings, unobserved properties, causal relationships, and many other aspects of the world. Traditional accounts of induction emphasize either the power of statistical learning, or the importance of strong constraints from structured domain knowledge, intuitive theories or schemas. We argue that both components are necessary to explain the nature, use and acquisition of human knowledge, and we introduce a theory-based Bayesian framework for modeling inductive learning and reasoning as statistical inferences over structured knowledge representations.

Generalized Dynamic Equations Related to Condensation and Freezing Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xingrong; Huang, Yong

2018-01-01

The generalized thermodynamic equation related to condensation and freezing processes was derived by introducing the condensation and freezing probability function into the dynamic framework based on the statistical thermodynamic fluctuation theory. As a result, the physical mechanism of some weather phenomena covered by using δ(0,1) can in turn be studied and uncovered. From the generalized dynamic equations, the tendency equation of the generalized potential vorticity (GPV) is derived. From the discussion of tendency equation of GPV, in some very thin transitional areas, GPV is found nonconserved because of the introduction of the condensation and freezing probability function, even in frictionless and moist adiabatic air motion.

Coalescent: an open-science framework for importance sampling in coalescent theory.

PubMed

Tewari, Susanta; Spouge, John L

2015-01-01

Background. In coalescent theory, computer programs often use importance sampling to calculate likelihoods and other statistical quantities. An importance sampling scheme can exploit human intuition to improve statistical efficiency of computations, but unfortunately, in the absence of general computer frameworks on importance sampling, researchers often struggle to translate new sampling schemes computationally or benchmark against different schemes, in a manner that is reliable and maintainable. Moreover, most studies use computer programs lacking a convenient user interface or the flexibility to meet the current demands of open science. In particular, current computer frameworks can only evaluate the efficiency of a single importance sampling scheme or compare the efficiencies of different schemes in an ad hoc manner. Results. We have designed a general framework (http://coalescent.sourceforge.net; language: Java; License: GPLv3) for importance sampling that computes likelihoods under the standard neutral coalescent model of a single, well-mixed population of constant size over time following infinite sites model of mutation. The framework models the necessary core concepts, comes integrated with several data sets of varying size, implements the standard competing proposals, and integrates tightly with our previous framework for calculating exact probabilities. For a given dataset, it computes the likelihood and provides the maximum likelihood estimate of the mutation parameter. Well-known benchmarks in the coalescent literature validate the accuracy of the framework. The framework provides an intuitive user interface with minimal clutter. For performance, the framework switches automatically to modern multicore hardware, if available. It runs on three major platforms (Windows, Mac and Linux). Extensive tests and coverage make the framework reliable and maintainable. Conclusions. In coalescent theory, many studies of computational efficiency consider only effective sample size. Here, we evaluate proposals in the coalescent literature, to discover that the order of efficiency among the three importance sampling schemes changes when one considers running time as well as effective sample size. We also describe a computational technique called "just-in-time delegation" available to improve the trade-off between running time and precision by constructing improved importance sampling schemes from existing ones. Thus, our systems approach is a potential solution to the "2(8) programs problem" highlighted by Felsenstein, because it provides the flexibility to include or exclude various features of similar coalescent models or importance sampling schemes.

Selective gas capture via kinetic trapping

DOE PAGES

Kundu, Joyjit; Pascal, Tod; Prendergast, David; ...

2016-07-13

Conventional approaches to the capture of CO 2 by metal-organic frameworks focus on equilibrium conditions, and frameworks that contain little CO 2 in equilibrium are often rejected as carbon-capture materials. Here we use a statistical mechanical model, parameterized by quantum mechanical data, to suggest that metal-organic frameworks can be used to separate CO 2 from a typical flue gas mixture when used under nonequilibrium conditions. The origin of this selectivity is an emergent gas-separation mechanism that results from the acquisition by different gas types of different mobilities within a crowded framework. The resulting distribution of gas types within the frameworkmore » is in general spatially and dynamically heterogeneous. Our results suggest that relaxing the requirement of equilibrium can substantially increase the parameter space of conditions and materials for which selective gas capture can be effected.« less

Detecting and characterizing high-frequency oscillations in epilepsy: a case study of big data analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Liang; Ni, Xuan; Ditto, William L.; Spano, Mark; Carney, Paul R.; Lai, Ying-Cheng

2017-01-01

We develop a framework to uncover and analyse dynamical anomalies from massive, nonlinear and non-stationary time series data. The framework consists of three steps: preprocessing of massive datasets to eliminate erroneous data segments, application of the empirical mode decomposition and Hilbert transform paradigm to obtain the fundamental components embedded in the time series at distinct time scales, and statistical/scaling analysis of the components. As a case study, we apply our framework to detecting and characterizing high-frequency oscillations (HFOs) from a big database of rat electroencephalogram recordings. We find a striking phenomenon: HFOs exhibit on-off intermittency that can be quantified by algebraic scaling laws. Our framework can be generalized to big data-related problems in other fields such as large-scale sensor data and seismic data analysis.

A unified statistical approach to non-negative matrix factorization and probabilistic latent semantic indexing

PubMed Central

Wang, Guoli; Ebrahimi, Nader

2014-01-01

Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is a powerful machine learning method for decomposing a high-dimensional nonnegative matrix V into the product of two nonnegative matrices, W and H, such that V ∼ W H. It has been shown to have a parts-based, sparse representation of the data. NMF has been successfully applied in a variety of areas such as natural language processing, neuroscience, information retrieval, image processing, speech recognition and computational biology for the analysis and interpretation of large-scale data. There has also been simultaneous development of a related statistical latent class modeling approach, namely, probabilistic latent semantic indexing (PLSI), for analyzing and interpreting co-occurrence count data arising in natural language processing. In this paper, we present a generalized statistical approach to NMF and PLSI based on Renyi's divergence between two non-negative matrices, stemming from the Poisson likelihood. Our approach unifies various competing models and provides a unique theoretical framework for these methods. We propose a unified algorithm for NMF and provide a rigorous proof of monotonicity of multiplicative updates for W and H. In addition, we generalize the relationship between NMF and PLSI within this framework. We demonstrate the applicability and utility of our approach as well as its superior performance relative to existing methods using real-life and simulated document clustering data. PMID:25821345

A unified statistical approach to non-negative matrix factorization and probabilistic latent semantic indexing.

PubMed

Devarajan, Karthik; Wang, Guoli; Ebrahimi, Nader

2015-04-01

Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is a powerful machine learning method for decomposing a high-dimensional nonnegative matrix V into the product of two nonnegative matrices, W and H , such that V ∼ W H . It has been shown to have a parts-based, sparse representation of the data. NMF has been successfully applied in a variety of areas such as natural language processing, neuroscience, information retrieval, image processing, speech recognition and computational biology for the analysis and interpretation of large-scale data. There has also been simultaneous development of a related statistical latent class modeling approach, namely, probabilistic latent semantic indexing (PLSI), for analyzing and interpreting co-occurrence count data arising in natural language processing. In this paper, we present a generalized statistical approach to NMF and PLSI based on Renyi's divergence between two non-negative matrices, stemming from the Poisson likelihood. Our approach unifies various competing models and provides a unique theoretical framework for these methods. We propose a unified algorithm for NMF and provide a rigorous proof of monotonicity of multiplicative updates for W and H . In addition, we generalize the relationship between NMF and PLSI within this framework. We demonstrate the applicability and utility of our approach as well as its superior performance relative to existing methods using real-life and simulated document clustering data.

The extraction and integration framework: a two-process account of statistical learning.

PubMed

Thiessen, Erik D; Kronstein, Alexandra T; Hufnagle, Daniel G

2013-07-01

The term statistical learning in infancy research originally referred to sensitivity to transitional probabilities. Subsequent research has demonstrated that statistical learning contributes to infant development in a wide array of domains. The range of statistical learning phenomena necessitates a broader view of the processes underlying statistical learning. Learners are sensitive to a much wider range of statistical information than the conditional relations indexed by transitional probabilities, including distributional and cue-based statistics. We propose a novel framework that unifies learning about all of these kinds of statistical structure. From our perspective, learning about conditional relations outputs discrete representations (such as words). Integration across these discrete representations yields sensitivity to cues and distributional information. To achieve sensitivity to all of these kinds of statistical structure, our framework combines processes that extract segments of the input with processes that compare across these extracted items. In this framework, the items extracted from the input serve as exemplars in long-term memory. The similarity structure of those exemplars in long-term memory leads to the discovery of cues and categorical structure, which guides subsequent extraction. The extraction and integration framework provides a way to explain sensitivity to both conditional statistical structure (such as transitional probabilities) and distributional statistical structure (such as item frequency and variability), and also a framework for thinking about how these different aspects of statistical learning influence each other. 2013 APA, all rights reserved

Statistics of dislocation pinning at localized obstacles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dutta, A.; Bhattacharya, M., E-mail: mishreyee@vecc.gov.in; Barat, P.

2014-10-14

Pinning of dislocations at nanosized obstacles like precipitates, voids, and bubbles is a crucial mechanism in the context of phenomena like hardening and creep. The interaction between such an obstacle and a dislocation is often studied at fundamental level by means of analytical tools, atomistic simulations, and finite element methods. Nevertheless, the information extracted from such studies cannot be utilized to its maximum extent on account of insufficient information about the underlying statistics of this process comprising a large number of dislocations and obstacles in a system. Here, we propose a new statistical approach, where the statistics of pinning ofmore » dislocations by idealized spherical obstacles is explored by taking into account the generalized size-distribution of the obstacles along with the dislocation density within a three-dimensional framework. Starting with a minimal set of material parameters, the framework employs the method of geometrical statistics with a few simple assumptions compatible with the real physical scenario. The application of this approach, in combination with the knowledge of fundamental dislocation-obstacle interactions, has successfully been demonstrated for dislocation pinning at nanovoids in neutron irradiated type 316-stainless steel in regard to the non-conservative motion of dislocations. An interesting phenomenon of transition from rare pinning to multiple pinning regimes with increasing irradiation temperature is revealed.« less

Introduction to the special section on mixture modeling in personality assessment.

PubMed

Wright, Aidan G C; Hallquist, Michael N

2014-01-01

Latent variable models offer a conceptual and statistical framework for evaluating the underlying structure of psychological constructs, including personality and psychopathology. Complex structures that combine or compare categorical and dimensional latent variables can be accommodated using mixture modeling approaches, which provide a powerful framework for testing nuanced theories about psychological structure. This special series includes introductory primers on cross-sectional and longitudinal mixture modeling, in addition to empirical examples applying these techniques to real-world data collected in clinical settings. This group of articles is designed to introduce personality assessment scientists and practitioners to a general latent variable framework that we hope will stimulate new research and application of mixture models to the assessment of personality and its pathology.

Active learning methods for interactive image retrieval.

PubMed

Gosselin, Philippe Henri; Cord, Matthieu

2008-07-01

Active learning methods have been considered with increased interest in the statistical learning community. Initially developed within a classification framework, a lot of extensions are now being proposed to handle multimedia applications. This paper provides algorithms within a statistical framework to extend active learning for online content-based image retrieval (CBIR). The classification framework is presented with experiments to compare several powerful classification techniques in this information retrieval context. Focusing on interactive methods, active learning strategy is then described. The limitations of this approach for CBIR are emphasized before presenting our new active selection process RETIN. First, as any active method is sensitive to the boundary estimation between classes, the RETIN strategy carries out a boundary correction to make the retrieval process more robust. Second, the criterion of generalization error to optimize the active learning selection is modified to better represent the CBIR objective of database ranking. Third, a batch processing of images is proposed. Our strategy leads to a fast and efficient active learning scheme to retrieve sets of online images (query concept). Experiments on large databases show that the RETIN method performs well in comparison to several other active strategies.

Environmental statistics and optimal regulation.

PubMed

Sivak, David A; Thomson, Matt

2014-09-01

Any organism is embedded in an environment that changes over time. The timescale for and statistics of environmental change, the precision with which the organism can detect its environment, and the costs and benefits of particular protein expression levels all will affect the suitability of different strategies--such as constitutive expression or graded response--for regulating protein levels in response to environmental inputs. We propose a general framework-here specifically applied to the enzymatic regulation of metabolism in response to changing concentrations of a basic nutrient-to predict the optimal regulatory strategy given the statistics of fluctuations in the environment and measurement apparatus, respectively, and the costs associated with enzyme production. We use this framework to address three fundamental questions: (i) when a cell should prefer thresholding to a graded response; (ii) when there is a fitness advantage to implementing a Bayesian decision rule; and (iii) when retaining memory of the past provides a selective advantage. We specifically find that: (i) relative convexity of enzyme expression cost and benefit influences the fitness of thresholding or graded responses; (ii) intermediate levels of measurement uncertainty call for a sophisticated Bayesian decision rule; and (iii) in dynamic contexts, intermediate levels of uncertainty call for retaining memory of the past. Statistical properties of the environment, such as variability and correlation times, set optimal biochemical parameters, such as thresholds and decay rates in signaling pathways. Our framework provides a theoretical basis for interpreting molecular signal processing algorithms and a classification scheme that organizes known regulatory strategies and may help conceptualize heretofore unknown ones.

Density profiles in the Scrape-Off Layer interpreted through filament dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Militello, Fulvio

2017-10-01

We developed a new theoretical framework to clarify the relation between radial Scrape-Off Layer density profiles and the fluctuations that generate them. The framework provides an interpretation of the experimental features of the profiles and of the turbulence statistics on the basis of simple properties of the filaments, such as their radial motion and their draining towards the divertor. L-mode and inter-ELM filaments are described as a Poisson process in which each event is independent and modelled with a wave function of amplitude and width statistically distributed according to experimental observations and evolving according to fluid equations. We will rigorously show that radially accelerating filaments, less efficient parallel exhaust and also a statistical distribution of their radial velocity can contribute to induce flatter profiles in the far SOL and therefore enhance plasma-wall interactions. A quite general result of our analysis is the resiliency of this non-exponential nature of the profiles and the increase of the relative fluctuation amplitude towards the wall, as experimentally observed. According to the framework, profile broadening at high fueling rates can be caused by interactions with neutrals (e.g. charge exchange) in the divertor or by a significant radial acceleration of the filaments. The framework assumptions were tested with 3D numerical simulations of seeded SOL filaments based on a two fluid model. In particular, filaments interact through the electrostatic field they generate only when they are in close proximity (separation comparable to their width in the drift plane), thus justifying our independence hypothesis. In addition, we will discuss how isolated filament motion responds to variations in the plasma conditions, and specifically divertor conditions. Finally, using the theoretical framework we will reproduce and interpret experimental results obtained on JET, MAST and HL-2A.

Fully Bayesian Estimation of Data from Single Case Designs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rindskopf, David

2013-01-01

Single case designs (SCDs) generally consist of a small number of short time series in two or more phases. The analysis of SCDs statistically fits in the framework of a multilevel model, or hierarchical model. The usual analysis does not take into account the uncertainty in the estimation of the random effects. This not only has an effect on the…

Modeling exposure–lag–response associations with distributed lag non-linear models

PubMed Central

Gasparrini, Antonio

2014-01-01

In biomedical research, a health effect is frequently associated with protracted exposures of varying intensity sustained in the past. The main complexity of modeling and interpreting such phenomena lies in the additional temporal dimension needed to express the association, as the risk depends on both intensity and timing of past exposures. This type of dependency is defined here as exposure–lag–response association. In this contribution, I illustrate a general statistical framework for such associations, established through the extension of distributed lag non-linear models, originally developed in time series analysis. This modeling class is based on the definition of a cross-basis, obtained by the combination of two functions to flexibly model linear or nonlinear exposure-responses and the lag structure of the relationship, respectively. The methodology is illustrated with an example application to cohort data and validated through a simulation study. This modeling framework generalizes to various study designs and regression models, and can be applied to study the health effects of protracted exposures to environmental factors, drugs or carcinogenic agents, among others. © 2013 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:24027094

Machine Learning-based discovery of closures for reduced models of dynamical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Shaowu; Duraisamy, Karthik

2017-11-01

Despite the successful application of machine learning (ML) in fields such as image processing and speech recognition, only a few attempts has been made toward employing ML to represent the dynamics of complex physical systems. Previous attempts mostly focus on parameter calibration or data-driven augmentation of existing models. In this work we present a ML framework to discover closure terms in reduced models of dynamical systems and provide insights into potential problems associated with data-driven modeling. Based on exact closure models for linear system, we propose a general linear closure framework from viewpoint of optimization. The framework is based on trapezoidal approximation of convolution term. Hyperparameters that need to be determined include temporal length of memory effect, number of sampling points, and dimensions of hidden states. To circumvent the explicit specification of memory effect, a general framework inspired from neural networks is also proposed. We conduct both a priori and posteriori evaluations of the resulting model on a number of non-linear dynamical systems. This work was supported in part by AFOSR under the project ``LES Modeling of Non-local effects using Statistical Coarse-graining'' with Dr. Jean-Luc Cambier as the technical monitor.

A general CFD framework for fault-resilient simulations based on multi-resolution information fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Seungjoon; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G.; Karniadakis, George Em

2017-10-01

We develop a general CFD framework for multi-resolution simulations to target multiscale problems but also resilience in exascale simulations, where faulty processors may lead to gappy, in space-time, simulated fields. We combine approximation theory and domain decomposition together with statistical learning techniques, e.g. coKriging, to estimate boundary conditions and minimize communications by performing independent parallel runs. To demonstrate this new simulation approach, we consider two benchmark problems. First, we solve the heat equation (a) on a small number of spatial "patches" distributed across the domain, simulated by finite differences at fine resolution and (b) on the entire domain simulated at very low resolution, thus fusing multi-resolution models to obtain the final answer. Second, we simulate the flow in a lid-driven cavity in an analogous fashion, by fusing finite difference solutions obtained with fine and low resolution assuming gappy data sets. We investigate the influence of various parameters for this framework, including the correlation kernel, the size of a buffer employed in estimating boundary conditions, the coarseness of the resolution of auxiliary data, and the communication frequency across different patches in fusing the information at different resolution levels. In addition to its robustness and resilience, the new framework can be employed to generalize previous multiscale approaches involving heterogeneous discretizations or even fundamentally different flow descriptions, e.g. in continuum-atomistic simulations.

Interaction with Machine Improvisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Assayag, Gerard; Bloch, George; Cont, Arshia; Dubnov, Shlomo

We describe two multi-agent architectures for an improvisation oriented musician-machine interaction systems that learn in real time from human performers. The improvisation kernel is based on sequence modeling and statistical learning. We present two frameworks of interaction with this kernel. In the first, the stylistic interaction is guided by a human operator in front of an interactive computer environment. In the second framework, the stylistic interaction is delegated to machine intelligence and therefore, knowledge propagation and decision are taken care of by the computer alone. The first framework involves a hybrid architecture using two popular composition/performance environments, Max and OpenMusic, that are put to work and communicate together, each one handling the process at a different time/memory scale. The second framework shares the same representational schemes with the first but uses an Active Learning architecture based on collaborative, competitive and memory-based learning to handle stylistic interactions. Both systems are capable of processing real-time audio/video as well as MIDI. After discussing the general cognitive background of improvisation practices, the statistical modelling tools and the concurrent agent architecture are presented. Then, an Active Learning scheme is described and considered in terms of using different improvisation regimes for improvisation planning. Finally, we provide more details about the different system implementations and describe several performances with the system.

Generalized Stefan-Boltzmann Law

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montambaux, Gilles

2018-03-01

We reconsider the thermodynamic derivation by L. Boltzmann of the Stefan law and we generalize it for various different physical systems whose chemical potential vanishes. Being only based on classical arguments, therefore independent of the quantum statistics, this derivation applies as well to the saturated Bose gas in various geometries as to "compensated" Fermi gas near a neutrality point, such as a gas of Weyl Fermions. It unifies in the same framework the thermodynamics of many different bosonic or fermionic non-interacting gases which were until now described in completely different contexts.

Random matrices and condensation into multiple states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadeghi, Sina; Engel, Andreas

2018-03-01

In the present work, we employ methods from statistical mechanics of disordered systems to investigate static properties of condensation into multiple states in a general framework. We aim at showing how typical properties of random interaction matrices play a vital role in manifesting the statistics of condensate states. In particular, an analytical expression for the fraction of condensate states in the thermodynamic limit is provided that confirms the result of the mean number of coexisting species in a random tournament game. We also study the interplay between the condensation problem and zero-sum games with correlated random payoff matrices.

Probabilistic arithmetic automata and their applications.

PubMed

Marschall, Tobias; Herms, Inke; Kaltenbach, Hans-Michael; Rahmann, Sven

2012-01-01

We present a comprehensive review on probabilistic arithmetic automata (PAAs), a general model to describe chains of operations whose operands depend on chance, along with two algorithms to numerically compute the distribution of the results of such probabilistic calculations. PAAs provide a unifying framework to approach many problems arising in computational biology and elsewhere. We present five different applications, namely 1) pattern matching statistics on random texts, including the computation of the distribution of occurrence counts, waiting times, and clump sizes under hidden Markov background models; 2) exact analysis of window-based pattern matching algorithms; 3) sensitivity of filtration seeds used to detect candidate sequence alignments; 4) length and mass statistics of peptide fragments resulting from enzymatic cleavage reactions; and 5) read length statistics of 454 and IonTorrent sequencing reads. The diversity of these applications indicates the flexibility and unifying character of the presented framework. While the construction of a PAA depends on the particular application, we single out a frequently applicable construction method: We introduce deterministic arithmetic automata (DAAs) to model deterministic calculations on sequences, and demonstrate how to construct a PAA from a given DAA and a finite-memory random text model. This procedure is used for all five discussed applications and greatly simplifies the construction of PAAs. Implementations are available as part of the MoSDi package. Its application programming interface facilitates the rapid development of new applications based on the PAA framework.

Dynamics of moment neuronal networks.

PubMed

Feng, Jianfeng; Deng, Yingchun; Rossoni, Enrico

2006-04-01

A theoretical framework is developed for moment neuronal networks (MNNs). Within this framework, the behavior of the system of spiking neurons is specified in terms of the first- and second-order statistics of their interspike intervals, i.e., the mean, the variance, and the cross correlations of spike activity. Since neurons emit and receive spike trains which can be described by renewal--but generally non-Poisson--processes, we first derive a suitable diffusion-type approximation of such processes. Two approximation schemes are introduced: the usual approximation scheme (UAS) and the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck scheme. It is found that both schemes approximate well the input-output characteristics of spiking models such as the IF and the Hodgkin-Huxley models. The MNN framework is then developed according to the UAS scheme, and its predictions are tested on a few examples.

Implication of Tsallis entropy in the Thomas–Fermi model for self-gravitating fermions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ourabah, Kamel; Tribeche, Mouloud, E-mail: mouloudtribeche@yahoo.fr

The Thomas–Fermi approach for self-gravitating fermions is revisited within the theoretical framework of the q-statistics. Starting from the q-deformation of the Fermi–Dirac distribution function, a generalized Thomas–Fermi equation is derived. It is shown that the Tsallis entropy preserves a scaling property of this equation. The q-statistical approach to Jeans’ instability in a system of self-gravitating fermions is also addressed. The dependence of the Jeans’ wavenumber (or the Jeans length) on the parameter q is traced. It is found that the q-statistics makes the Fermionic system unstable at scales shorter than the standard Jeans length. -- Highlights: •Thomas–Fermi approach for self-gravitatingmore » fermions. •A generalized Thomas–Fermi equation is derived. •Nonextensivity preserves a scaling property of this equation. •Nonextensive approach to Jeans’ instability of self-gravitating fermions. •It is found that nonextensivity makes the Fermionic system unstable at shorter scales.« less

MIDAS: Regionally linear multivariate discriminative statistical mapping.

PubMed

Varol, Erdem; Sotiras, Aristeidis; Davatzikos, Christos

2018-07-01

Statistical parametric maps formed via voxel-wise mass-univariate tests, such as the general linear model, are commonly used to test hypotheses about regionally specific effects in neuroimaging cross-sectional studies where each subject is represented by a single image. Despite being informative, these techniques remain limited as they ignore multivariate relationships in the data. Most importantly, the commonly employed local Gaussian smoothing, which is important for accounting for registration errors and making the data follow Gaussian distributions, is usually chosen in an ad hoc fashion. Thus, it is often suboptimal for the task of detecting group differences and correlations with non-imaging variables. Information mapping techniques, such as searchlight, which use pattern classifiers to exploit multivariate information and obtain more powerful statistical maps, have become increasingly popular in recent years. However, existing methods may lead to important interpretation errors in practice (i.e., misidentifying a cluster as informative, or failing to detect truly informative voxels), while often being computationally expensive. To address these issues, we introduce a novel efficient multivariate statistical framework for cross-sectional studies, termed MIDAS, seeking highly sensitive and specific voxel-wise brain maps, while leveraging the power of regional discriminant analysis. In MIDAS, locally linear discriminative learning is applied to estimate the pattern that best discriminates between two groups, or predicts a variable of interest. This pattern is equivalent to local filtering by an optimal kernel whose coefficients are the weights of the linear discriminant. By composing information from all neighborhoods that contain a given voxel, MIDAS produces a statistic that collectively reflects the contribution of the voxel to the regional classifiers as well as the discriminative power of the classifiers. Critically, MIDAS efficiently assesses the statistical significance of the derived statistic by analytically approximating its null distribution without the need for computationally expensive permutation tests. The proposed framework was extensively validated using simulated atrophy in structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and further tested using data from a task-based functional MRI study as well as a structural MRI study of cognitive performance. The performance of the proposed framework was evaluated against standard voxel-wise general linear models and other information mapping methods. The experimental results showed that MIDAS achieves relatively higher sensitivity and specificity in detecting group differences. Together, our results demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach to efficiently map effects of interest in both structural and functional data. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Statistical ecology comes of age.

PubMed

Gimenez, Olivier; Buckland, Stephen T; Morgan, Byron J T; Bez, Nicolas; Bertrand, Sophie; Choquet, Rémi; Dray, Stéphane; Etienne, Marie-Pierre; Fewster, Rachel; Gosselin, Frédéric; Mérigot, Bastien; Monestiez, Pascal; Morales, Juan M; Mortier, Frédéric; Munoz, François; Ovaskainen, Otso; Pavoine, Sandrine; Pradel, Roger; Schurr, Frank M; Thomas, Len; Thuiller, Wilfried; Trenkel, Verena; de Valpine, Perry; Rexstad, Eric

2014-12-01

The desire to predict the consequences of global environmental change has been the driver towards more realistic models embracing the variability and uncertainties inherent in ecology. Statistical ecology has gelled over the past decade as a discipline that moves away from describing patterns towards modelling the ecological processes that generate these patterns. Following the fourth International Statistical Ecology Conference (1-4 July 2014) in Montpellier, France, we analyse current trends in statistical ecology. Important advances in the analysis of individual movement, and in the modelling of population dynamics and species distributions, are made possible by the increasing use of hierarchical and hidden process models. Exciting research perspectives include the development of methods to interpret citizen science data and of efficient, flexible computational algorithms for model fitting. Statistical ecology has come of age: it now provides a general and mathematically rigorous framework linking ecological theory and empirical data.

Statistical ecology comes of age

PubMed Central

Gimenez, Olivier; Buckland, Stephen T.; Morgan, Byron J. T.; Bez, Nicolas; Bertrand, Sophie; Choquet, Rémi; Dray, Stéphane; Etienne, Marie-Pierre; Fewster, Rachel; Gosselin, Frédéric; Mérigot, Bastien; Monestiez, Pascal; Morales, Juan M.; Mortier, Frédéric; Munoz, François; Ovaskainen, Otso; Pavoine, Sandrine; Pradel, Roger; Schurr, Frank M.; Thomas, Len; Thuiller, Wilfried; Trenkel, Verena; de Valpine, Perry; Rexstad, Eric

2014-01-01

The desire to predict the consequences of global environmental change has been the driver towards more realistic models embracing the variability and uncertainties inherent in ecology. Statistical ecology has gelled over the past decade as a discipline that moves away from describing patterns towards modelling the ecological processes that generate these patterns. Following the fourth International Statistical Ecology Conference (1–4 July 2014) in Montpellier, France, we analyse current trends in statistical ecology. Important advances in the analysis of individual movement, and in the modelling of population dynamics and species distributions, are made possible by the increasing use of hierarchical and hidden process models. Exciting research perspectives include the development of methods to interpret citizen science data and of efficient, flexible computational algorithms for model fitting. Statistical ecology has come of age: it now provides a general and mathematically rigorous framework linking ecological theory and empirical data. PMID:25540151

skelesim: an extensible, general framework for population genetic simulation in R.

PubMed

Parobek, Christian M; Archer, Frederick I; DePrenger-Levin, Michelle E; Hoban, Sean M; Liggins, Libby; Strand, Allan E

2017-01-01

Simulations are a key tool in molecular ecology for inference and forecasting, as well as for evaluating new methods. Due to growing computational power and a diversity of software with different capabilities, simulations are becoming increasingly powerful and useful. However, the widespread use of simulations by geneticists and ecologists is hindered by difficulties in understanding these softwares' complex capabilities, composing code and input files, a daunting bioinformatics barrier and a steep conceptual learning curve. skelesim (an R package) guides users in choosing appropriate simulations, setting parameters, calculating genetic summary statistics and organizing data output, in a reproducible pipeline within the R environment. skelesim is designed to be an extensible framework that can 'wrap' around any simulation software (inside or outside the R environment) and be extended to calculate and graph any genetic summary statistics. Currently, skelesim implements coalescent and forward-time models available in the fastsimcoal2 and rmetasim simulation engines to produce null distributions for multiple population genetic statistics and marker types, under a variety of demographic conditions. skelesim is intended to make simulations easier while still allowing full model complexity to ensure that simulations play a fundamental role in molecular ecology investigations. skelesim can also serve as a teaching tool: demonstrating the outcomes of stochastic population genetic processes; teaching general concepts of simulations; and providing an introduction to the R environment with a user-friendly graphical user interface (using shiny). © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

skeleSim: an extensible, general framework for population genetic simulation in R

PubMed Central

Parobek, Christian M.; Archer, Frederick I.; DePrenger-Levin, Michelle E.; Hoban, Sean M.; Liggins, Libby; Strand, Allan E.

2016-01-01

Simulations are a key tool in molecular ecology for inference and forecasting, as well as for evaluating new methods. Due to growing computational power and a diversity of software with different capabilities, simulations are becoming increasingly powerful and useful. However, the widespread use of simulations by geneticists and ecologists is hindered by difficulties in understanding these softwares’ complex capabilities, composing code and input files, a daunting bioinformatics barrier, and a steep conceptual learning curve. skeleSim (an R package) guides users in choosing appropriate simulations, setting parameters, calculating genetic summary statistics, and organizing data output, in a reproducible pipeline within the R environment. skeleSim is designed to be an extensible framework that can ‘wrap’ around any simulation software (inside or outside the R environment) and be extended to calculate and graph any genetic summary statistics. Currently, skeleSim implements coalescent and forward-time models available in the fastsimcoal2 and rmetasim simulation engines to produce null distributions for multiple population genetic statistics and marker types, under a variety of demographic conditions. skeleSim is intended to make simulations easier while still allowing full model complexity to ensure that simulations play a fundamental role in molecular ecology investigations. skeleSim can also serve as a teaching tool: demonstrating the outcomes of stochastic population genetic processes; teaching general concepts of simulations; and providing an introduction to the R environment with a user-friendly graphical user interface (using shiny). PMID:27736016

Crossing statistics of laser light scattered through a nanofluid.

PubMed

Arshadi Pirlar, M; Movahed, S M S; Razzaghi, D; Karimzadeh, R

2017-09-01

In this paper, we investigate the crossing statistics of speckle patterns formed in the Fresnel diffraction region by a laser beam scattering through a nanofluid. We extend zero-crossing statistics to assess the dynamical properties of the nanofluid. According to the joint probability density function of laser beam fluctuation and its time derivative, the theoretical frameworks for Gaussian and non-Gaussian regimes are revisited. We count the number of crossings not only at zero level but also for all available thresholds to determine the average speed of moving particles. Using a probabilistic framework in determining crossing statistics, a priori Gaussianity is not essentially considered; therefore, even in the presence of deviation from Gaussian fluctuation, this modified approach is capable of computing relevant quantities, such as mean value of speed, more precisely. Generalized total crossing, which represents the weighted summation of crossings for all thresholds to quantify small deviation from Gaussian statistics, is introduced. This criterion can also manipulate the contribution of noises and trends to infer reliable physical quantities. The characteristic time scale for having successive crossings at a given threshold is defined. In our experimental setup, we find that increasing sample temperature leads to more consistency between Gaussian and perturbative non-Gaussian predictions. The maximum number of crossings does not necessarily occur at mean level, indicating that we should take into account other levels in addition to zero level to achieve more accurate assessments.

Constructing and Modifying Sequence Statistics for relevent Using informR in 𝖱

PubMed Central

Marcum, Christopher Steven; Butts, Carter T.

2015-01-01

The informR package greatly simplifies the analysis of complex event histories in 𝖱 by providing user friendly tools to build sufficient statistics for the relevent package. Historically, building sufficient statistics to model event sequences (of the form a→b) using the egocentric generalization of Butts’ (2008) relational event framework for modeling social action has been cumbersome. The informR package simplifies the construction of the complex list of arrays needed by the rem() model fitting for a variety of cases involving egocentric event data, multiple event types, and/or support constraints. This paper introduces these tools using examples from real data extracted from the American Time Use Survey. PMID:26185488

PET image reconstruction: a robust state space approach.

PubMed

Liu, Huafeng; Tian, Yi; Shi, Pengcheng

2005-01-01

Statistical iterative reconstruction algorithms have shown improved image quality over conventional nonstatistical methods in PET by using accurate system response models and measurement noise models. Strictly speaking, however, PET measurements, pre-corrected for accidental coincidences, are neither Poisson nor Gaussian distributed and thus do not meet basic assumptions of these algorithms. In addition, the difficulty in determining the proper system response model also greatly affects the quality of the reconstructed images. In this paper, we explore the usage of state space principles for the estimation of activity map in tomographic PET imaging. The proposed strategy formulates the organ activity distribution through tracer kinetics models, and the photon-counting measurements through observation equations, thus makes it possible to unify the dynamic reconstruction problem and static reconstruction problem into a general framework. Further, it coherently treats the uncertainties of the statistical model of the imaging system and the noisy nature of measurement data. Since H(infinity) filter seeks minimummaximum-error estimates without any assumptions on the system and data noise statistics, it is particular suited for PET image reconstruction where the statistical properties of measurement data and the system model are very complicated. The performance of the proposed framework is evaluated using Shepp-Logan simulated phantom data and real phantom data with favorable results.

Acquiring and processing verb argument structure: distributional learning in a miniature language.

PubMed

Wonnacott, Elizabeth; Newport, Elissa L; Tanenhaus, Michael K

2008-05-01

Adult knowledge of a language involves correctly balancing lexically-based and more language-general patterns. For example, verb argument structures may sometimes readily generalize to new verbs, yet with particular verbs may resist generalization. From the perspective of acquisition, this creates significant learnability problems, with some researchers claiming a crucial role for verb semantics in the determination of when generalization may and may not occur. Similarly, there has been debate regarding how verb-specific and more generalized constraints interact in sentence processing and on the role of semantics in this process. The current work explores these issues using artificial language learning. In three experiments using languages without semantic cues to verb distribution, we demonstrate that learners can acquire both verb-specific and verb-general patterns, based on distributional information in the linguistic input regarding each of the verbs as well as across the language as a whole. As with natural languages, these factors are shown to affect production, judgments and real-time processing. We demonstrate that learners apply a rational procedure in determining their usage of these different input statistics and conclude by suggesting that a Bayesian perspective on statistical learning may be an appropriate framework for capturing our findings.

Statistical Analysis of Zebrafish Locomotor Response.

PubMed

Liu, Yiwen; Carmer, Robert; Zhang, Gaonan; Venkatraman, Prahatha; Brown, Skye Ashton; Pang, Chi-Pui; Zhang, Mingzhi; Ma, Ping; Leung, Yuk Fai

2015-01-01

Zebrafish larvae display rich locomotor behaviour upon external stimulation. The movement can be simultaneously tracked from many larvae arranged in multi-well plates. The resulting time-series locomotor data have been used to reveal new insights into neurobiology and pharmacology. However, the data are of large scale, and the corresponding locomotor behavior is affected by multiple factors. These issues pose a statistical challenge for comparing larval activities. To address this gap, this study has analyzed a visually-driven locomotor behaviour named the visual motor response (VMR) by the Hotelling's T-squared test. This test is congruent with comparing locomotor profiles from a time period. Different wild-type (WT) strains were compared using the test, which shows that they responded differently to light change at different developmental stages. The performance of this test was evaluated by a power analysis, which shows that the test was sensitive for detecting differences between experimental groups with sample numbers that were commonly used in various studies. In addition, this study investigated the effects of various factors that might affect the VMR by multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA). The results indicate that the larval activity was generally affected by stage, light stimulus, their interaction, and location in the plate. Nonetheless, different factors affected larval activity differently over time, as indicated by a dynamical analysis of the activity at each second. Intriguingly, this analysis also shows that biological and technical repeats had negligible effect on larval activity. This finding is consistent with that from the Hotelling's T-squared test, and suggests that experimental repeats can be combined to enhance statistical power. Together, these investigations have established a statistical framework for analyzing VMR data, a framework that should be generally applicable to other locomotor data with similar structure.

Statistical Analysis of Zebrafish Locomotor Response

PubMed Central

Zhang, Gaonan; Venkatraman, Prahatha; Brown, Skye Ashton; Pang, Chi-Pui; Zhang, Mingzhi; Ma, Ping; Leung, Yuk Fai

2015-01-01

Zebrafish larvae display rich locomotor behaviour upon external stimulation. The movement can be simultaneously tracked from many larvae arranged in multi-well plates. The resulting time-series locomotor data have been used to reveal new insights into neurobiology and pharmacology. However, the data are of large scale, and the corresponding locomotor behavior is affected by multiple factors. These issues pose a statistical challenge for comparing larval activities. To address this gap, this study has analyzed a visually-driven locomotor behaviour named the visual motor response (VMR) by the Hotelling’s T-squared test. This test is congruent with comparing locomotor profiles from a time period. Different wild-type (WT) strains were compared using the test, which shows that they responded differently to light change at different developmental stages. The performance of this test was evaluated by a power analysis, which shows that the test was sensitive for detecting differences between experimental groups with sample numbers that were commonly used in various studies. In addition, this study investigated the effects of various factors that might affect the VMR by multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA). The results indicate that the larval activity was generally affected by stage, light stimulus, their interaction, and location in the plate. Nonetheless, different factors affected larval activity differently over time, as indicated by a dynamical analysis of the activity at each second. Intriguingly, this analysis also shows that biological and technical repeats had negligible effect on larval activity. This finding is consistent with that from the Hotelling’s T-squared test, and suggests that experimental repeats can be combined to enhance statistical power. Together, these investigations have established a statistical framework for analyzing VMR data, a framework that should be generally applicable to other locomotor data with similar structure. PMID:26437184

Multiplicative Multitask Feature Learning

PubMed Central

Wang, Xin; Bi, Jinbo; Yu, Shipeng; Sun, Jiangwen; Song, Minghu

2016-01-01

We investigate a general framework of multiplicative multitask feature learning which decomposes individual task’s model parameters into a multiplication of two components. One of the components is used across all tasks and the other component is task-specific. Several previous methods can be proved to be special cases of our framework. We study the theoretical properties of this framework when different regularization conditions are applied to the two decomposed components. We prove that this framework is mathematically equivalent to the widely used multitask feature learning methods that are based on a joint regularization of all model parameters, but with a more general form of regularizers. Further, an analytical formula is derived for the across-task component as related to the task-specific component for all these regularizers, leading to a better understanding of the shrinkage effects of different regularizers. Study of this framework motivates new multitask learning algorithms. We propose two new learning formulations by varying the parameters in the proposed framework. An efficient blockwise coordinate descent algorithm is developed suitable for solving the entire family of formulations with rigorous convergence analysis. Simulation studies have identified the statistical properties of data that would be in favor of the new formulations. Extensive empirical studies on various classification and regression benchmark data sets have revealed the relative advantages of the two new formulations by comparing with the state of the art, which provides instructive insights into the feature learning problem with multiple tasks. PMID:28428735

Temperature in and out of equilibrium: A review of concepts, tools and attempts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puglisi, A.; Sarracino, A.; Vulpiani, A.

2017-11-01

We review the general aspects of the concept of temperature in equilibrium and non-equilibrium statistical mechanics. Although temperature is an old and well-established notion, it still presents controversial facets. After a short historical survey of the key role of temperature in thermodynamics and statistical mechanics, we tackle a series of issues which have been recently reconsidered. In particular, we discuss different definitions and their relevance for energy fluctuations. The interest in such a topic has been triggered by the recent observation of negative temperatures in condensed matter experiments. Moreover, the ability to manipulate systems at the micro and nano-scale urges to understand and clarify some aspects related to the statistical properties of small systems (as the issue of temperature's ;fluctuations;). We also discuss the notion of temperature in a dynamical context, within the theory of linear response for Hamiltonian systems at equilibrium and stochastic models with detailed balance, and the generalized fluctuation-response relations, which provide a hint for an extension of the definition of temperature in far-from-equilibrium systems. To conclude we consider non-Hamiltonian systems, such as granular materials, turbulence and active matter, where a general theoretical framework is still lacking.

Estimating the palliative effect of percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy in an observational registry using principal stratification and generalized propensity scores

PubMed Central

Mishra-Kalyani, Pallavi S.; Johnson, Brent A.; Glass, Jonathan D.; Long, Qi

2016-01-01

Clinical disease registries offer a rich collection of valuable patient information but also pose challenges that require special care and attention in statistical analyses. The goal of this paper is to propose a statistical framework that allows for estimating the effect of surgical insertion of a percutaneous endogastrostomy (PEG) tube for patients living with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) using data from a clinical registry. Although all ALS patients are informed about PEG, only some patients agree to the procedure which, leads to the potential for selection bias. Assessing the effect of PEG is further complicated by the aggressively fatal disease, such that time to death competes directly with both the opportunity to receive PEG and clinical outcome measurements. Our proposed methodology handles the “censoring by death” phenomenon through principal stratification and selection bias for PEG treatment through generalized propensity scores. We develop a fully Bayesian modeling approach to estimate the survivor average causal effect (SACE) of PEG on BMI, a surrogate outcome measure of nutrition and quality of life. The use of propensity score methods within the principal stratification framework demonstrates a significant and positive effect of PEG treatment, particularly when time of treatment is included in the treatment definition. PMID:27640365

Estimating the palliative effect of percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy in an observational registry using principal stratification and generalized propensity scores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra-Kalyani, Pallavi S.; Johnson, Brent A.; Glass, Jonathan D.; Long, Qi

2016-09-01

Clinical disease registries offer a rich collection of valuable patient information but also pose challenges that require special care and attention in statistical analyses. The goal of this paper is to propose a statistical framework that allows for estimating the effect of surgical insertion of a percutaneous endogastrostomy (PEG) tube for patients living with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) using data from a clinical registry. Although all ALS patients are informed about PEG, only some patients agree to the procedure which, leads to the potential for selection bias. Assessing the effect of PEG is further complicated by the aggressively fatal disease, such that time to death competes directly with both the opportunity to receive PEG and clinical outcome measurements. Our proposed methodology handles the “censoring by death” phenomenon through principal stratification and selection bias for PEG treatment through generalized propensity scores. We develop a fully Bayesian modeling approach to estimate the survivor average causal effect (SACE) of PEG on BMI, a surrogate outcome measure of nutrition and quality of life. The use of propensity score methods within the principal stratification framework demonstrates a significant and positive effect of PEG treatment, particularly when time of treatment is included in the treatment definition.

Optimal moment determination in POME-copula based hydrometeorological dependence modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Dengfeng; Wang, Dong; Singh, Vijay P.; Wang, Yuankun; Wu, Jichun; Wang, Lachun; Zou, Xinqing; Chen, Yuanfang; Chen, Xi

2017-07-01

Copula has been commonly applied in multivariate modelling in various fields where marginal distribution inference is a key element. To develop a flexible, unbiased mathematical inference framework in hydrometeorological multivariate applications, the principle of maximum entropy (POME) is being increasingly coupled with copula. However, in previous POME-based studies, determination of optimal moment constraints has generally not been considered. The main contribution of this study is the determination of optimal moments for POME for developing a coupled optimal moment-POME-copula framework to model hydrometeorological multivariate events. In this framework, margins (marginals, or marginal distributions) are derived with the use of POME, subject to optimal moment constraints. Then, various candidate copulas are constructed according to the derived margins, and finally the most probable one is determined, based on goodness-of-fit statistics. This optimal moment-POME-copula framework is applied to model the dependence patterns of three types of hydrometeorological events: (i) single-site streamflow-water level; (ii) multi-site streamflow; and (iii) multi-site precipitation, with data collected from Yichang and Hankou in the Yangtze River basin, China. Results indicate that the optimal-moment POME is more accurate in margin fitting and the corresponding copulas reflect a good statistical performance in correlation simulation. Also, the derived copulas, capturing more patterns which traditional correlation coefficients cannot reflect, provide an efficient way in other applied scenarios concerning hydrometeorological multivariate modelling.

Using structural equation modeling for network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tu, Yu-Kang; Wu, Yun-Chun

2017-07-14

Network meta-analysis overcomes the limitations of traditional pair-wise meta-analysis by incorporating all available evidence into a general statistical framework for simultaneous comparisons of several treatments. Currently, network meta-analyses are undertaken either within the Bayesian hierarchical linear models or frequentist generalized linear mixed models. Structural equation modeling (SEM) is a statistical method originally developed for modeling causal relations among observed and latent variables. As random effect is explicitly modeled as a latent variable in SEM, it is very flexible for analysts to specify complex random effect structure and to make linear and nonlinear constraints on parameters. The aim of this article is to show how to undertake a network meta-analysis within the statistical framework of SEM. We used an example dataset to demonstrate the standard fixed and random effect network meta-analysis models can be easily implemented in SEM. It contains results of 26 studies that directly compared three treatment groups A, B and C for prevention of first bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis. We also showed that a new approach to network meta-analysis based on the technique of unrestricted weighted least squares (UWLS) method can also be undertaken using SEM. For both the fixed and random effect network meta-analysis, SEM yielded similar coefficients and confidence intervals to those reported in the previous literature. The point estimates of two UWLS models were identical to those in the fixed effect model but the confidence intervals were greater. This is consistent with results from the traditional pairwise meta-analyses. Comparing to UWLS model with common variance adjusted factor, UWLS model with unique variance adjusted factor has greater confidence intervals when the heterogeneity was larger in the pairwise comparison. The UWLS model with unique variance adjusted factor reflects the difference in heterogeneity within each comparison. SEM provides a very flexible framework for univariate and multivariate meta-analysis, and its potential as a powerful tool for advanced meta-analysis is still to be explored.

RGG: A general GUI Framework for R scripts

PubMed Central

Visne, Ilhami; Dilaveroglu, Erkan; Vierlinger, Klemens; Lauss, Martin; Yildiz, Ahmet; Weinhaeusel, Andreas; Noehammer, Christa; Leisch, Friedrich; Kriegner, Albert

2009-01-01

Background R is the leading open source statistics software with a vast number of biostatistical and bioinformatical analysis packages. To exploit the advantages of R, extensive scripting/programming skills are required. Results We have developed a software tool called R GUI Generator (RGG) which enables the easy generation of Graphical User Interfaces (GUIs) for the programming language R by adding a few Extensible Markup Language (XML) – tags. RGG consists of an XML-based GUI definition language and a Java-based GUI engine. GUIs are generated in runtime from defined GUI tags that are embedded into the R script. User-GUI input is returned to the R code and replaces the XML-tags. RGG files can be developed using any text editor. The current version of RGG is available as a stand-alone software (RGGRunner) and as a plug-in for JGR. Conclusion RGG is a general GUI framework for R that has the potential to introduce R statistics (R packages, built-in functions and scripts) to users with limited programming skills and helps to bridge the gap between R developers and GUI-dependent users. RGG aims to abstract the GUI development from individual GUI toolkits by using an XML-based GUI definition language. Thus RGG can be easily integrated in any software. The RGG project further includes the development of a web-based repository for RGG-GUIs. RGG is an open source project licensed under the Lesser General Public License (LGPL) and can be downloaded freely at PMID:19254356

Toward Global Comparability of Sexual Orientation Data in Official Statistics: A Conceptual Framework of Sexual Orientation for Health Data Collection in New Zealand's Official Statistics System

PubMed Central

Gray, Alistair; Veale, Jaimie F.; Binson, Diane; Sell, Randell L.

2013-01-01

Objective. Effectively addressing health disparities experienced by sexual minority populations requires high-quality official data on sexual orientation. We developed a conceptual framework of sexual orientation to improve the quality of sexual orientation data in New Zealand's Official Statistics System. Methods. We reviewed conceptual and methodological literature, culminating in a draft framework. To improve the framework, we held focus groups and key-informant interviews with sexual minority stakeholders and producers and consumers of official statistics. An advisory board of experts provided additional guidance. Results. The framework proposes working definitions of the sexual orientation topic and measurement concepts, describes dimensions of the measurement concepts, discusses variables framing the measurement concepts, and outlines conceptual grey areas. Conclusion. The framework proposes standard definitions and concepts for the collection of official sexual orientation data in New Zealand. It presents a model for producers of official statistics in other countries, who wish to improve the quality of health data on their citizens. PMID:23840231

Tropical geometry of statistical models.

PubMed

Pachter, Lior; Sturmfels, Bernd

2004-11-16

This article presents a unified mathematical framework for inference in graphical models, building on the observation that graphical models are algebraic varieties. From this geometric viewpoint, observations generated from a model are coordinates of a point in the variety, and the sum-product algorithm is an efficient tool for evaluating specific coordinates. Here, we address the question of how the solutions to various inference problems depend on the model parameters. The proposed answer is expressed in terms of tropical algebraic geometry. The Newton polytope of a statistical model plays a key role. Our results are applied to the hidden Markov model and the general Markov model on a binary tree.

A quantum framework for likelihood ratios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond, Rachael L.; He, Yang-Hui; Ormerod, Thomas C.

The ability to calculate precise likelihood ratios is fundamental to science, from Quantum Information Theory through to Quantum State Estimation. However, there is no assumption-free statistical methodology to achieve this. For instance, in the absence of data relating to covariate overlap, the widely used Bayes’ theorem either defaults to the marginal probability driven “naive Bayes’ classifier”, or requires the use of compensatory expectation-maximization techniques. This paper takes an information-theoretic approach in developing a new statistical formula for the calculation of likelihood ratios based on the principles of quantum entanglement, and demonstrates that Bayes’ theorem is a special case of a more general quantum mechanical expression.

Statistical measures of Planck scale signal correlations in interferometers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hogan, Craig J.; Kwon, Ohkyung

2015-06-22

A model-independent statistical framework is presented to interpret data from systems where the mean time derivative of positional cross correlation between world lines, a measure of spreading in a quantum geometrical wave function, is measured with a precision smaller than the Planck time. The framework provides a general way to constrain possible departures from perfect independence of classical world lines, associated with Planck scale bounds on positional information. A parametrized candidate set of possible correlation functions is shown to be consistent with the known causal structure of the classical geometry measured by an apparatus, and the holographic scaling of informationmore » suggested by gravity. Frequency-domain power spectra are derived that can be compared with interferometer data. As a result, simple projections of sensitivity for specific experimental set-ups suggests that measurements will directly yield constraints on a universal time derivative of the correlation function, and thereby confirm or rule out a class of Planck scale departures from classical geometry.« less

A Statistical Framework for Analyzing Cyber Threats

DTIC Science & Technology

defender cares most about the attacks against certain ports or services). The grey-box statistical framework formulates a new methodology of Cybersecurity ...the design of prediction models. Our research showed that the grey-box framework is effective in predicting cybersecurity situational awareness.

Neurophysiological Markers of Statistical Learning in Music and Language: Hierarchy, Entropy, and Uncertainty.

PubMed

Daikoku, Tatsuya

2018-06-19

Statistical learning (SL) is a method of learning based on the transitional probabilities embedded in sequential phenomena such as music and language. It has been considered an implicit and domain-general mechanism that is innate in the human brain and that functions independently of intention to learn and awareness of what has been learned. SL is an interdisciplinary notion that incorporates information technology, artificial intelligence, musicology, and linguistics, as well as psychology and neuroscience. A body of recent study has suggested that SL can be reflected in neurophysiological responses based on the framework of information theory. This paper reviews a range of work on SL in adults and children that suggests overlapping and independent neural correlations in music and language, and that indicates disability of SL. Furthermore, this article discusses the relationships between the order of transitional probabilities (TPs) (i.e., hierarchy of local statistics) and entropy (i.e., global statistics) regarding SL strategies in human's brains; claims importance of information-theoretical approaches to understand domain-general, higher-order, and global SL covering both real-world music and language; and proposes promising approaches for the application of therapy and pedagogy from various perspectives of psychology, neuroscience, computational studies, musicology, and linguistics.

The forecasting of menstruation based on a state-space modeling of basal body temperature time series.

PubMed

Fukaya, Keiichi; Kawamori, Ai; Osada, Yutaka; Kitazawa, Masumi; Ishiguro, Makio

2017-09-20

Women's basal body temperature (BBT) shows a periodic pattern that associates with menstrual cycle. Although this fact suggests a possibility that daily BBT time series can be useful for estimating the underlying phase state as well as for predicting the length of current menstrual cycle, little attention has been paid to model BBT time series. In this study, we propose a state-space model that involves the menstrual phase as a latent state variable to explain the daily fluctuation of BBT and the menstruation cycle length. Conditional distributions of the phase are obtained by using sequential Bayesian filtering techniques. A predictive distribution of the next menstruation day can be derived based on this conditional distribution and the model, leading to a novel statistical framework that provides a sequentially updated prediction for upcoming menstruation day. We applied this framework to a real data set of women's BBT and menstruation days and compared prediction accuracy of the proposed method with that of previous methods, showing that the proposed method generally provides a better prediction. Because BBT can be obtained with relatively small cost and effort, the proposed method can be useful for women's health management. Potential extensions of this framework as the basis of modeling and predicting events that are associated with the menstrual cycles are discussed. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A quasi-likelihood approach to non-negative matrix factorization

PubMed Central

Devarajan, Karthik; Cheung, Vincent C.K.

2017-01-01

A unified approach to non-negative matrix factorization based on the theory of generalized linear models is proposed. This approach embeds a variety of statistical models, including the exponential family, within a single theoretical framework and provides a unified view of such factorizations from the perspective of quasi-likelihood. Using this framework, a family of algorithms for handling signal-dependent noise is developed and its convergence proven using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm. In addition, a measure to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the resulting factorization is described. The proposed methods allow modeling of non-linear effects via appropriate link functions and are illustrated using an application in biomedical signal processing. PMID:27348511

Maximum entropy models as a tool for building precise neural controls.

PubMed

Savin, Cristina; Tkačik, Gašper

2017-10-01

Neural responses are highly structured, with population activity restricted to a small subset of the astronomical range of possible activity patterns. Characterizing these statistical regularities is important for understanding circuit computation, but challenging in practice. Here we review recent approaches based on the maximum entropy principle used for quantifying collective behavior in neural activity. We highlight recent models that capture population-level statistics of neural data, yielding insights into the organization of the neural code and its biological substrate. Furthermore, the MaxEnt framework provides a general recipe for constructing surrogate ensembles that preserve aspects of the data, but are otherwise maximally unstructured. This idea can be used to generate a hierarchy of controls against which rigorous statistical tests are possible. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

2-Point microstructure archetypes for improved elastic properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, Brent L.; Gao, Xiang

2004-01-01

Rectangular models of material microstructure are described by their 1- and 2-point (spatial) correlation statistics of placement of local state. In the procedure described here the local state space is described in discrete form; and the focus is on placement of local state within a finite number of cells comprising rectangular models. It is illustrated that effective elastic properties (generalized Hashin Shtrikman bounds) can be obtained that are linear in components of the correlation statistics. Within this framework the concept of an eigen-microstructure within the microstructure hull is useful. Given the practical innumerability of the microstructure hull, however, we introduce a method for generating a sequence of archetypes of eigen-microstructure, from the 2-point correlation statistics of local state, assuming that the 1-point statistics are stationary. The method is illustrated by obtaining an archetype for an imaginary two-phase material where the objective is to maximize the combination C_{xxxx}^{*} + C_{xyxy}^{*}

Conceptualizing a Framework for Advanced Placement Statistics Teaching Knowledge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haines, Brenna

2015-01-01

The purpose of this article is to sketch a conceptualization of a framework for Advanced Placement (AP) Statistics Teaching Knowledge. Recent research continues to problematize the lack of knowledge and preparation among secondary level statistics teachers. The College Board's AP Statistics course continues to grow and gain popularity, but is a…

Complex Quantum Network Manifolds in Dimension d > 2 are Scale-Free

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bianconi, Ginestra; Rahmede, Christoph

2015-09-01

In quantum gravity, several approaches have been proposed until now for the quantum description of discrete geometries. These theoretical frameworks include loop quantum gravity, causal dynamical triangulations, causal sets, quantum graphity, and energetic spin networks. Most of these approaches describe discrete spaces as homogeneous network manifolds. Here we define Complex Quantum Network Manifolds (CQNM) describing the evolution of quantum network states, and constructed from growing simplicial complexes of dimension . We show that in d = 2 CQNM are homogeneous networks while for d > 2 they are scale-free i.e. they are characterized by large inhomogeneities of degrees like most complex networks. From the self-organized evolution of CQNM quantum statistics emerge spontaneously. Here we define the generalized degrees associated with the -faces of the -dimensional CQNMs, and we show that the statistics of these generalized degrees can either follow Fermi-Dirac, Boltzmann or Bose-Einstein distributions depending on the dimension of the -faces.

Unifying Complexity and Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ke, Da-Guan

2013-04-01

Complex systems, arising in many contexts in the computer, life, social, and physical sciences, have not shared a generally-accepted complexity measure playing a fundamental role as the Shannon entropy H in statistical mechanics. Superficially-conflicting criteria of complexity measurement, i.e. complexity-randomness (C-R) relations, have given rise to a special measure intrinsically adaptable to more than one criterion. However, deep causes of the conflict and the adaptability are not much clear. Here I trace the root of each representative or adaptable measure to its particular universal data-generating or -regenerating model (UDGM or UDRM). A representative measure for deterministic dynamical systems is found as a counterpart of the H for random process, clearly redefining the boundary of different criteria. And a specific UDRM achieving the intrinsic adaptability enables a general information measure that ultimately solves all major disputes. This work encourages a single framework coving deterministic systems, statistical mechanics and real-world living organisms.

Wavelet neural networks: a practical guide.

PubMed

Alexandridis, Antonios K; Zapranis, Achilleas D

2013-06-01

Wavelet networks (WNs) are a new class of networks which have been used with great success in a wide range of applications. However a general accepted framework for applying WNs is missing from the literature. In this study, we present a complete statistical model identification framework in order to apply WNs in various applications. The following subjects were thoroughly examined: the structure of a WN, training methods, initialization algorithms, variable significance and variable selection algorithms, model selection methods and finally methods to construct confidence and prediction intervals. In addition the complexity of each algorithm is discussed. Our proposed framework was tested in two simulated cases, in one chaotic time series described by the Mackey-Glass equation and in three real datasets described by daily temperatures in Berlin, daily wind speeds in New York and breast cancer classification. Our results have shown that the proposed algorithms produce stable and robust results indicating that our proposed framework can be applied in various applications. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing the significance of pedobarographic signals using random field theory.

PubMed

Pataky, Todd C

2008-08-07

Traditional pedobarographic statistical analyses are conducted over discrete regions. Recent studies have demonstrated that regionalization can corrupt pedobarographic field data through conflation when arbitrary dividing lines inappropriately delineate smooth field processes. An alternative is to register images such that homologous structures optimally overlap and then conduct statistical tests at each pixel to generate statistical parametric maps (SPMs). The significance of SPM processes may be assessed within the framework of random field theory (RFT). RFT is ideally suited to pedobarographic image analysis because its fundamental data unit is a lattice sampling of a smooth and continuous spatial field. To correct for the vast number of multiple comparisons inherent in such data, recent pedobarographic studies have employed a Bonferroni correction to retain a constant family-wise error rate. This approach unfortunately neglects the spatial correlation of neighbouring pixels, so provides an overly conservative (albeit valid) statistical threshold. RFT generally relaxes the threshold depending on field smoothness and on the geometry of the search area, but it also provides a framework for assigning p values to suprathreshold clusters based on their spatial extent. The current paper provides an overview of basic RFT concepts and uses simulated and experimental data to validate both RFT-relevant field smoothness estimations and RFT predictions regarding the topological characteristics of random pedobarographic fields. Finally, previously published experimental data are re-analysed using RFT inference procedures to demonstrate how RFT yields easily understandable statistical results that may be incorporated into routine clinical and laboratory analyses.

Nonlinear Relaxation in Population Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cirone, Markus A.; de Pasquale, Ferdinando; Spagnolo, Bernardo

We analyze the nonlinear relaxation of a complex ecosystem composed of many interacting species. The ecological system is described by generalized Lotka-Volterra equations with a multiplicative noise. The transient dynamics is studied in the framework of the mean field theory and with random interaction between the species. We focus on the statistical properties of the asymptotic behaviour of the time integral of the ith population and on the distribution of the population and of the local field.

Applying Bayesian statistics to the study of psychological trauma: A suggestion for future research.

PubMed

Yalch, Matthew M

2016-03-01

Several contemporary researchers have noted the virtues of Bayesian methods of data analysis. Although debates continue about whether conventional or Bayesian statistics is the "better" approach for researchers in general, there are reasons why Bayesian methods may be well suited to the study of psychological trauma in particular. This article describes how Bayesian statistics offers practical solutions to the problems of data non-normality, small sample size, and missing data common in research on psychological trauma. After a discussion of these problems and the effects they have on trauma research, this article explains the basic philosophical and statistical foundations of Bayesian statistics and how it provides solutions to these problems using an applied example. Results of the literature review and the accompanying example indicates the utility of Bayesian statistics in addressing problems common in trauma research. Bayesian statistics provides a set of methodological tools and a broader philosophical framework that is useful for trauma researchers. Methodological resources are also provided so that interested readers can learn more. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Adding statistical regularity results in a global slowdown in visual search.

PubMed

Vaskevich, Anna; Luria, Roy

2018-05-01

Current statistical learning theories predict that embedding implicit regularities within a task should further improve online performance, beyond general practice. We challenged this assumption by contrasting performance in a visual search task containing either a consistent-mapping (regularity) condition, a random-mapping condition, or both conditions, mixed. Surprisingly, performance in a random visual search, without any regularity, was better than performance in a mixed design search that contained a beneficial regularity. This result was replicated using different stimuli and different regularities, suggesting that mixing consistent and random conditions leads to an overall slowing down of performance. Relying on the predictive-processing framework, we suggest that this global detrimental effect depends on the validity of the regularity: when its predictive value is low, as it is in the case of a mixed design, reliance on all prior information is reduced, resulting in a general slowdown. Our results suggest that our cognitive system does not maximize speed, but rather continues to gather and implement statistical information at the expense of a possible slowdown in performance. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exact results in nonequilibrium statistical mechanics: Formalism and applications in chemical kinetics and single-molecule free energy estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adib, Artur B.

In the last two decades or so, a collection of results in nonequilibrium statistical mechanics that departs from the traditional near-equilibrium framework introduced by Lars Onsager in 1931 has been derived, yielding new fundamental insights into far-from-equilibrium processes in general. Apart from offering a more quantitative statement of the second law of thermodynamics, some of these results---typified by the so-called "Jarzynski equality"---have also offered novel means of estimating equilibrium quantities from nonequilibrium processes, such as free energy differences from single-molecule "pulling" experiments. This thesis contributes to such efforts by offering three novel results in nonequilibrium statistical mechanics: (a) The entropic analog of the Jarzynski equality; (b) A methodology for estimating free energies from "clamp-and-release" nonequilibrium processes; and (c) A directly measurable symmetry relation in chemical kinetics similar to (but more general than) chemical detailed balance. These results share in common the feature of remaining valid outside Onsager's near-equilibrium regime, and bear direct applicability in protein folding kinetics as well as in single-molecule free energy estimation.

The Development of Web-based Graphical User Interface for Unified Modeling Data with Multi (Correlated) Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Made Tirta, I.; Anggraeni, Dian

2018-04-01

Statistical models have been developed rapidly into various directions to accommodate various types of data. Data collected from longitudinal, repeated measured, clustered data (either continuous, binary, count, or ordinal), are more likely to be correlated. Therefore statistical model for independent responses, such as Generalized Linear Model (GLM), Generalized Additive Model (GAM) are not appropriate. There are several models available to apply for correlated responses including GEEs (Generalized Estimating Equations), for marginal model and various mixed effect model such as GLMM (Generalized Linear Mixed Models) and HGLM (Hierarchical Generalized Linear Models) for subject spesific models. These models are available on free open source software R, but they can only be accessed through command line interface (using scrit). On the othe hand, most practical researchers very much rely on menu based or Graphical User Interface (GUI). We develop, using Shiny framework, standard pull down menu Web-GUI that unifies most models for correlated responses. The Web-GUI has accomodated almost all needed features. It enables users to do and compare various modeling for repeated measure data (GEE, GLMM, HGLM, GEE for nominal responses) much more easily trough online menus. This paper discusses the features of the Web-GUI and illustrates the use of them. In General we find that GEE, GLMM, HGLM gave very closed results.

Toward a unified approach to dose-response modeling in ecotoxicology.

PubMed

Ritz, Christian

2010-01-01

This study reviews dose-response models that are used in ecotoxicology. The focus lies on clarification of differences and similarities between models, and as a side effect, their different guises in ecotoxicology are unravelled. A look at frequently used dose-response models reveals major discrepancies, among other things in naming conventions. Therefore, there is a need for a unified view on dose-response modeling in order to improve the understanding of it and to facilitate communication and comparison of findings across studies, thus realizing its full potential. This study attempts to establish a general framework that encompasses most dose-response models that are of interest to ecotoxicologists in practice. The framework includes commonly used models such as the log-logistic and Weibull models, but also features entire suites of models as found in various guidance documents. An outline on how the proposed framework can be implemented in statistical software systems is also provided.

Particle acceleration in solar active regions being in the state of self-organized criticality.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vlahos, Loukas

We review the recent observational results on flare initiation and particle acceleration in solar active regions. Elaborating a statistical approach to describe the spatiotemporally intermittent electric field structures formed inside a flaring solar active region, we investigate the efficiency of such structures in accelerating charged particles (electrons and protons). The large-scale magnetic configuration in the solar atmosphere responds to the strong turbulent flows that convey perturbations across the active region by initiating avalanche-type processes. The resulting unstable structures correspond to small-scale dissipation regions hosting strong electric fields. Previous research on particle acceleration in strongly turbulent plasmas provides a general framework for addressing such a problem. This framework combines various electromagnetic field configurations obtained by magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) or cellular automata (CA) simulations, or by employing a statistical description of the field’s strength and configuration with test particle simulations. We work on data-driven 3D magnetic field extrapolations, based on a self-organized criticality models (SOC). A relativistic test-particle simulation traces each particle’s guiding center within these configurations. Using the simulated particle-energy distributions we test our results against observations, in the framework of the collisional thick target model (CTTM) of solar hard X-ray (HXR) emission and compare our results with the current observations.

Improved Bayesian Infrasonic Source Localization for regional infrasound

DOE PAGES

Blom, Philip S.; Marcillo, Omar; Arrowsmith, Stephen J.

2015-10-20

The Bayesian Infrasonic Source Localization (BISL) methodology is examined and simplified providing a generalized method of estimating the source location and time for an infrasonic event and the mathematical framework is used therein. The likelihood function describing an infrasonic detection used in BISL has been redefined to include the von Mises distribution developed in directional statistics and propagation-based, physically derived celerity-range and azimuth deviation models. Frameworks for constructing propagation-based celerity-range and azimuth deviation statistics are presented to demonstrate how stochastic propagation modelling methods can be used to improve the precision and accuracy of the posterior probability density function describing themore » source localization. Infrasonic signals recorded at a number of arrays in the western United States produced by rocket motor detonations at the Utah Test and Training Range are used to demonstrate the application of the new mathematical framework and to quantify the improvement obtained by using the stochastic propagation modelling methods. Moreover, using propagation-based priors, the spatial and temporal confidence bounds of the source decreased by more than 40 per cent in all cases and by as much as 80 per cent in one case. Further, the accuracy of the estimates remained high, keeping the ground truth within the 99 per cent confidence bounds for all cases.« less

Statistical Teleodynamics: Toward a Theory of Emergence.

PubMed

Venkatasubramanian, Venkat

2017-10-24

The central scientific challenge of the 21st century is developing a mathematical theory of emergence that can explain and predict phenomena such as consciousness and self-awareness. The most successful research program of the 20th century, reductionism, which goes from the whole to parts, seems unable to address this challenge. This is because addressing this challenge inherently requires an opposite approach, going from parts to the whole. In addition, reductionism, by the very nature of its inquiry, typically does not concern itself with teleology or purposeful behavior. Modeling emergence, in contrast, requires the addressing of teleology. Together, these two requirements present a formidable challenge in developing a successful mathematical theory of emergence. In this article, I describe a new theory of emergence, called statistical teleodynamics, that addresses certain aspects of the general problem. Statistical teleodynamics is a mathematical framework that unifies three seemingly disparate domains-purpose-free entities in statistical mechanics, human engineered teleological systems in systems engineering, and nature-evolved teleological systems in biology and sociology-within the same conceptual formalism. This theory rests on several key conceptual insights, the most important one being the recognition that entropy mathematically models the concept of fairness in economics and philosophy and, equivalently, the concept of robustness in systems engineering. These insights help prove that the fairest inequality of income is a log-normal distribution, which will emerge naturally at equilibrium in an ideal free market society. Similarly, the theory predicts the emergence of the three classes of network organization-exponential, scale-free, and Poisson-seen widely in a variety of domains. Statistical teleodynamics is the natural generalization of statistical thermodynamics, the most successful parts-to-whole systems theory to date, but this generalization is only a modest step toward a more comprehensive mathematical theory of emergence.

The APA Task Force on Statistical Inference (TFSI) Report as a Framework for Teaching and Evaluating Students' Understandings of Study Validity.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thompson, Bruce

Web-based statistical instruction, like all statistical instruction, ought to focus on teaching the essence of the research endeavor: the exercise of reflective judgment. Using the framework of the recent report of the American Psychological Association (APA) Task Force on Statistical Inference (Wilkinson and the APA Task Force on Statistical…

Transformation of general binary MRF minimization to the first-order case.

PubMed

Ishikawa, Hiroshi

2011-06-01

We introduce a transformation of general higher-order Markov random field with binary labels into a first-order one that has the same minima as the original. Moreover, we formalize a framework for approximately minimizing higher-order multi-label MRF energies that combines the new reduction with the fusion-move and QPBO algorithms. While many computer vision problems today are formulated as energy minimization problems, they have mostly been limited to using first-order energies, which consist of unary and pairwise clique potentials, with a few exceptions that consider triples. This is because of the lack of efficient algorithms to optimize energies with higher-order interactions. Our algorithm challenges this restriction that limits the representational power of the models so that higher-order energies can be used to capture the rich statistics of natural scenes. We also show that some minimization methods can be considered special cases of the present framework, as well as comparing the new method experimentally with other such techniques.

A unified framework for weighted parametric multiple test procedures.

PubMed

Xi, Dong; Glimm, Ekkehard; Maurer, Willi; Bretz, Frank

2017-09-01

We describe a general framework for weighted parametric multiple test procedures based on the closure principle. We utilize general weighting strategies that can reflect complex study objectives and include many procedures in the literature as special cases. The proposed weighted parametric tests bridge the gap between rejection rules using either adjusted significance levels or adjusted p-values. This connection is made by allowing intersection hypotheses of the underlying closed test procedure to be tested at level smaller than α. This may be also necessary to take certain study situations into account. For such cases we introduce a subclass of exact α-level parametric tests that satisfy the consonance property. When the correlation is known only for certain subsets of the test statistics, a new procedure is proposed to fully utilize this knowledge within each subset. We illustrate the proposed weighted parametric tests using a clinical trial example and conduct a simulation study to investigate its operating characteristics. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

PGT: A Statistical Approach to Prediction and Mechanism Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolpert, David H.; Bono, James W.

One of the biggest challenges facing behavioral economics is the lack of a single theoretical framework that is capable of directly utilizing all types of behavioral data. One of the biggest challenges of game theory is the lack of a framework for making predictions and designing markets in a manner that is consistent with the axioms of decision theory. An approach in which solution concepts are distribution-valued rather than set-valued (i.e. equilibrium theory) has both capabilities. We call this approach Predictive Game Theory (or PGT). This paper outlines a general Bayesian approach to PGT. It also presents one simple example to illustrate the way in which this approach differs from equilibrium approaches in both prediction and mechanism design settings.

Tatool: a Java-based open-source programming framework for psychological studies.

PubMed

von Bastian, Claudia C; Locher, André; Ruflin, Michael

2013-03-01

Tatool (Training and Testing Tool) was developed to assist researchers with programming training software, experiments, and questionnaires. Tatool is Java-based, and thus is a platform-independent and object-oriented framework. The architecture was designed to meet the requirements of experimental designs and provides a large number of predefined functions that are useful in psychological studies. Tatool comprises features crucial for training studies (e.g., configurable training schedules, adaptive training algorithms, and individual training statistics) and allows for running studies online via Java Web Start. The accompanying "Tatool Online" platform provides the possibility to manage studies and participants' data easily with a Web-based interface. Tatool is published open source under the GNU Lesser General Public License, and is available at www.tatool.ch.

Particle Acceleration in a Statistically Modeled Solar Active-Region Corona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toutounzi, A.; Vlahos, L.; Isliker, H.; Dimitropoulou, M.; Anastasiadis, A.; Georgoulis, M.

2013-09-01

Elaborating a statistical approach to describe the spatiotemporally intermittent electric field structures formed inside a flaring solar active region, we investigate the efficiency of such structures in accelerating charged particles (electrons). The large-scale magnetic configuration in the solar atmosphere responds to the strong turbulent flows that convey perturbations across the active region by initiating avalanche-type processes. The resulting unstable structures correspond to small-scale dissipation regions hosting strong electric fields. Previous research on particle acceleration in strongly turbulent plasmas provides a general framework for addressing such a problem. This framework combines various electromagnetic field configurations obtained by magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) or cellular automata (CA) simulations, or by employing a statistical description of the field's strength and configuration with test particle simulations. Our objective is to complement previous work done on the subject. As in previous efforts, a set of three probability distribution functions describes our ad-hoc electromagnetic field configurations. In addition, we work on data-driven 3D magnetic field extrapolations. A collisional relativistic test-particle simulation traces each particle's guiding center within these configurations. We also find that an interplay between different electron populations (thermal/non-thermal, ambient/injected) in our simulations may also address, via a re-acceleration mechanism, the so called `number problem'. Using the simulated particle-energy distributions at different heights of the cylinder we test our results against observations, in the framework of the collisional thick target model (CTTM) of solar hard X-ray (HXR) emission. The above work is supported by the Hellenic National Space Weather Research Network (HNSWRN) via the THALIS Programme.

The non-equilibrium allele frequency spectrum in a Poisson random field framework.

PubMed

Kaj, Ingemar; Mugal, Carina F

2016-10-01

In population genetic studies, the allele frequency spectrum (AFS) efficiently summarizes genome-wide polymorphism data and shapes a variety of allele frequency-based summary statistics. While existing theory typically features equilibrium conditions, emerging methodology requires an analytical understanding of the build-up of the allele frequencies over time. In this work, we use the framework of Poisson random fields to derive new representations of the non-equilibrium AFS for the case of a Wright-Fisher population model with selection. In our approach, the AFS is a scaling-limit of the expectation of a Poisson stochastic integral and the representation of the non-equilibrium AFS arises in terms of a fixation time probability distribution. The known duality between the Wright-Fisher diffusion process and a birth and death process generalizing Kingman's coalescent yields an additional representation. The results carry over to the setting of a random sample drawn from the population and provide the non-equilibrium behavior of sample statistics. Our findings are consistent with and extend a previous approach where the non-equilibrium AFS solves a partial differential forward equation with a non-traditional boundary condition. Moreover, we provide a bridge to previous coalescent-based work, and hence tie several frameworks together. Since frequency-based summary statistics are widely used in population genetics, for example, to identify candidate loci of adaptive evolution, to infer the demographic history of a population, or to improve our understanding of the underlying mechanics of speciation events, the presented results are potentially useful for a broad range of topics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Characterizing and Addressing the Need for Statistical Adjustment of Global Climate Model Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, K. D.; Baker, B.; Mueller, C.; Villarini, G.; Foley, P.; Friedman, D.

2017-12-01

As part of its mission to research and measure the effects of the changing climate, the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) regularly uses the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model dataset. However, these data are generated at a global level and are not fine-tuned for specific watersheds. This often causes CMIP5 output to vary from locally observed patterns in the climate. Several downscaling methods have been developed to increase the resolution of the CMIP5 data and decrease systemic differences to support decision-makers as they evaluate results at the watershed scale. Evaluating preliminary comparisons of observed and projected flow frequency curves over the US revealed a simple framework for water resources decision makers to plan and design water resources management measures under changing conditions using standard tools. Using this framework as a basis, USACE has begun to explore to use of statistical adjustment to alter global climate model data to better match the locally observed patterns while preserving the general structure and behavior of the model data. When paired with careful measurement and hypothesis testing, statistical adjustment can be particularly effective at navigating the compromise between the locally observed patterns and the global climate model structures for decision makers.

Statistical framework and noise sensitivity of the amplitude radial correlation contrast method.

PubMed

Kipervaser, Zeev Gideon; Pelled, Galit; Goelman, Gadi

2007-09-01

A statistical framework for the amplitude radial correlation contrast (RCC) method, which integrates a conventional pixel threshold approach with cluster-size statistics, is presented. The RCC method uses functional MRI (fMRI) data to group neighboring voxels in terms of their degree of temporal cross correlation and compares coherences in different brain states (e.g., stimulation OFF vs. ON). By defining the RCC correlation map as the difference between two RCC images, the map distribution of two OFF states is shown to be normal, enabling the definition of the pixel cutoff. The empirical cluster-size null distribution obtained after the application of the pixel cutoff is used to define a cluster-size cutoff that allows 5% false positives. Assuming that the fMRI signal equals the task-induced response plus noise, an analytical expression of amplitude-RCC dependency on noise is obtained and used to define the pixel threshold. In vivo and ex vivo data obtained during rat forepaw electric stimulation are used to fine-tune this threshold. Calculating the spatial coherences within in vivo and ex vivo images shows enhanced coherence in the in vivo data, but no dependency on the anesthesia method, magnetic field strength, or depth of anesthesia, strengthening the generality of the proposed cutoffs. Copyright (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Low-complexity stochastic modeling of wall-bounded shear flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zare, Armin

Turbulent flows are ubiquitous in nature and they appear in many engineering applications. Transition to turbulence, in general, increases skin-friction drag in air/water vehicles compromising their fuel-efficiency and reduces the efficiency and longevity of wind turbines. While traditional flow control techniques combine physical intuition with costly experiments, their effectiveness can be significantly enhanced by control design based on low-complexity models and optimization. In this dissertation, we develop a theoretical and computational framework for the low-complexity stochastic modeling of wall-bounded shear flows. Part I of the dissertation is devoted to the development of a modeling framework which incorporates data-driven techniques to refine physics-based models. We consider the problem of completing partially known sample statistics in a way that is consistent with underlying stochastically driven linear dynamics. Neither the statistics nor the dynamics are precisely known. Thus, our objective is to reconcile the two in a parsimonious manner. To this end, we formulate optimization problems to identify the dynamics and directionality of input excitation in order to explain and complete available covariance data. For problem sizes that general-purpose solvers cannot handle, we develop customized optimization algorithms based on alternating direction methods. The solution to the optimization problem provides information about critical directions that have maximal effect in bringing model and statistics in agreement. In Part II, we employ our modeling framework to account for statistical signatures of turbulent channel flow using low-complexity stochastic dynamical models. We demonstrate that white-in-time stochastic forcing is not sufficient to explain turbulent flow statistics and develop models for colored-in-time forcing of the linearized Navier-Stokes equations. We also examine the efficacy of stochastically forced linearized NS equations and their parabolized equivalents in the receptivity analysis of velocity fluctuations to external sources of excitation as well as capturing the effect of the slowly-varying base flow on streamwise streaks and Tollmien-Schlichting waves. In Part III, we develop a model-based approach to design surface actuation of turbulent channel flow in the form of streamwise traveling waves. This approach is capable of identifying the drag reducing trends of traveling waves in a simulation-free manner. We also use the stochastically forced linearized NS equations to examine the Reynolds number independent effects of spanwise wall oscillations on drag reduction in turbulent channel flows. This allows us to extend the predictive capability of our simulation-free approach to high Reynolds numbers.

Item Analysis Appropriate for Domain-Referenced Classroom Testing. (Project Technical Report Number 1).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nitko, Anthony J.; Hsu, Tse-chi

Item analysis procedures appropriate for domain-referenced classroom testing are described. A conceptual framework within which item statistics can be considered and promising statistics in light of this framework are presented. The sampling fluctuations of the more promising item statistics for sample sizes comparable to the typical classroom…

Beyond lognormal inequality: The Lorenz Flow Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliazar, Iddo

2016-11-01

Observed from a socioeconomic perspective, the intrinsic inequality of the lognormal law happens to manifest a flow generated by an underlying ordinary differential equation. In this paper we extend this feature of the lognormal law to a general ;Lorenz Flow Structure; of Lorenz curves-objects that quantify socioeconomic inequality. The Lorenz Flow Structure establishes a general framework of size distributions that span continuous spectra of socioeconomic states ranging from the pure-communism extreme to the absolute-monarchy extreme. This study introduces and explores the Lorenz Flow Structure, analyzes its statistical properties and its inequality properties, unveils the unique role of the lognormal law within this general structure, and presents various examples of this general structure. Beyond the lognormal law, the examples include the inverse-Pareto and Pareto laws-which often govern the tails of composite size distributions.

Reuse, Recycle, Reweigh: Combating Influenza through Efficient Sequential Bayesian Computation for Massive Data.

PubMed

Tom, Jennifer A; Sinsheimer, Janet S; Suchard, Marc A

Massive datasets in the gigabyte and terabyte range combined with the availability of increasingly sophisticated statistical tools yield analyses at the boundary of what is computationally feasible. Compromising in the face of this computational burden by partitioning the dataset into more tractable sizes results in stratified analyses, removed from the context that justified the initial data collection. In a Bayesian framework, these stratified analyses generate intermediate realizations, often compared using point estimates that fail to account for the variability within and correlation between the distributions these realizations approximate. However, although the initial concession to stratify generally precludes the more sensible analysis using a single joint hierarchical model, we can circumvent this outcome and capitalize on the intermediate realizations by extending the dynamic iterative reweighting MCMC algorithm. In doing so, we reuse the available realizations by reweighting them with importance weights, recycling them into a now tractable joint hierarchical model. We apply this technique to intermediate realizations generated from stratified analyses of 687 influenza A genomes spanning 13 years allowing us to revisit hypotheses regarding the evolutionary history of influenza within a hierarchical statistical framework.

Reuse, Recycle, Reweigh: Combating Influenza through Efficient Sequential Bayesian Computation for Massive Data

PubMed Central

Tom, Jennifer A.; Sinsheimer, Janet S.; Suchard, Marc A.

2015-01-01

Massive datasets in the gigabyte and terabyte range combined with the availability of increasingly sophisticated statistical tools yield analyses at the boundary of what is computationally feasible. Compromising in the face of this computational burden by partitioning the dataset into more tractable sizes results in stratified analyses, removed from the context that justified the initial data collection. In a Bayesian framework, these stratified analyses generate intermediate realizations, often compared using point estimates that fail to account for the variability within and correlation between the distributions these realizations approximate. However, although the initial concession to stratify generally precludes the more sensible analysis using a single joint hierarchical model, we can circumvent this outcome and capitalize on the intermediate realizations by extending the dynamic iterative reweighting MCMC algorithm. In doing so, we reuse the available realizations by reweighting them with importance weights, recycling them into a now tractable joint hierarchical model. We apply this technique to intermediate realizations generated from stratified analyses of 687 influenza A genomes spanning 13 years allowing us to revisit hypotheses regarding the evolutionary history of influenza within a hierarchical statistical framework. PMID:26681992

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Kandler; Shi, Ying; Santhanagopalan, Shriram

Predictive models of Li-ion battery lifetime must consider a multiplicity of electrochemical, thermal, and mechanical degradation modes experienced by batteries in application environments. To complicate matters, Li-ion batteries can experience different degradation trajectories that depend on storage and cycling history of the application environment. Rates of degradation are controlled by factors such as temperature history, electrochemical operating window, and charge/discharge rate. We present a generalized battery life prognostic model framework for battery systems design and control. The model framework consists of trial functions that are statistically regressed to Li-ion cell life datasets wherein the cells have been aged under differentmore » levels of stress. Degradation mechanisms and rate laws dependent on temperature, storage, and cycling condition are regressed to the data, with multiple model hypotheses evaluated and the best model down-selected based on statistics. The resulting life prognostic model, implemented in state variable form, is extensible to arbitrary real-world scenarios. The model is applicable in real-time control algorithms to maximize battery life and performance. We discuss efforts to reduce lifetime prediction error and accommodate its inevitable impact in controller design.« less

Risk assessment of vector-borne diseases for public health governance.

PubMed

Sedda, L; Morley, D W; Braks, M A H; De Simone, L; Benz, D; Rogers, D J

2014-12-01

In the context of public health, risk governance (or risk analysis) is a framework for the assessment and subsequent management and/or control of the danger posed by an identified disease threat. Generic frameworks in which to carry out risk assessment have been developed by various agencies. These include monitoring, data collection, statistical analysis and dissemination. Due to the inherent complexity of disease systems, however, the generic approach must be modified for individual, disease-specific risk assessment frameworks. The analysis was based on the review of the current risk assessments of vector-borne diseases adopted by the main Public Health organisations (OIE, WHO, ECDC, FAO, CDC etc…). Literature, legislation and statistical assessment of the risk analysis frameworks. This review outlines the need for the development of a general public health risk assessment method for vector-borne diseases, in order to guarantee that sufficient information is gathered to apply robust models of risk assessment. Stochastic (especially spatial) methods, often in Bayesian frameworks are now gaining prominence in standard risk assessment procedures because of their ability to assess accurately model uncertainties. Risk assessment needs to be addressed quantitatively wherever possible, and submitted with its quality assessment in order to enable successful public health measures to be adopted. In terms of current practice, often a series of different models and analyses are applied to the same problem, with results and outcomes that are difficult to compare because of the unknown model and data uncertainties. Therefore, the risk assessment areas in need of further research are identified in this article. Copyright © 2014 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sequential-Optimization-Based Framework for Robust Modeling and Design of Heterogeneous Catalytic Systems

DOE PAGES

Rangarajan, Srinivas; Maravelias, Christos T.; Mavrikakis, Manos

2017-11-09

Here, we present a general optimization-based framework for (i) ab initio and experimental data driven mechanistic modeling and (ii) optimal catalyst design of heterogeneous catalytic systems. Both cases are formulated as a nonlinear optimization problem that is subject to a mean-field microkinetic model and thermodynamic consistency requirements as constraints, for which we seek sparse solutions through a ridge (L 2 regularization) penalty. The solution procedure involves an iterative sequence of forward simulation of the differential algebraic equations pertaining to the microkinetic model using a numerical tool capable of handling stiff systems, sensitivity calculations using linear algebra, and gradient-based nonlinear optimization.more » A multistart approach is used to explore the solution space, and a hierarchical clustering procedure is implemented for statistically classifying potentially competing solutions. An example of methanol synthesis through hydrogenation of CO and CO 2 on a Cu-based catalyst is used to illustrate the framework. The framework is fast, is robust, and can be used to comprehensively explore the model solution and design space of any heterogeneous catalytic system.« less

A Robust State Estimation Framework Considering Measurement Correlations and Imperfect Synchronization

DOE PAGES

Zhao, Junbo; Wang, Shaobu; Mili, Lamine; ...

2018-01-08

Here, this paper develops a robust power system state estimation framework with the consideration of measurement correlations and imperfect synchronization. In the framework, correlations of SCADA and Phasor Measurements (PMUs) are calculated separately through unscented transformation and a Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) model. In particular, PMU measurements during the waiting period of two SCADA measurement scans are buffered to develop the VAR model with robustly estimated parameters using projection statistics approach. The latter takes into account the temporal and spatial correlations of PMU measurements and provides redundant measurements to suppress bad data and mitigate imperfect synchronization. In case where the SCADAmore » and PMU measurements are not time synchronized, either the forecasted PMU measurements or the prior SCADA measurements from the last estimation run are leveraged to restore system observability. Then, a robust generalized maximum-likelihood (GM)-estimator is extended to integrate measurement error correlations and to handle the outliers in the SCADA and PMU measurements. Simulation results that stem from a comprehensive comparison with other alternatives under various conditions demonstrate the benefits of the proposed framework.« less

A Robust State Estimation Framework Considering Measurement Correlations and Imperfect Synchronization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Junbo; Wang, Shaobu; Mili, Lamine

Here, this paper develops a robust power system state estimation framework with the consideration of measurement correlations and imperfect synchronization. In the framework, correlations of SCADA and Phasor Measurements (PMUs) are calculated separately through unscented transformation and a Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) model. In particular, PMU measurements during the waiting period of two SCADA measurement scans are buffered to develop the VAR model with robustly estimated parameters using projection statistics approach. The latter takes into account the temporal and spatial correlations of PMU measurements and provides redundant measurements to suppress bad data and mitigate imperfect synchronization. In case where the SCADAmore » and PMU measurements are not time synchronized, either the forecasted PMU measurements or the prior SCADA measurements from the last estimation run are leveraged to restore system observability. Then, a robust generalized maximum-likelihood (GM)-estimator is extended to integrate measurement error correlations and to handle the outliers in the SCADA and PMU measurements. Simulation results that stem from a comprehensive comparison with other alternatives under various conditions demonstrate the benefits of the proposed framework.« less

Sequential-Optimization-Based Framework for Robust Modeling and Design of Heterogeneous Catalytic Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rangarajan, Srinivas; Maravelias, Christos T.; Mavrikakis, Manos

Here, we present a general optimization-based framework for (i) ab initio and experimental data driven mechanistic modeling and (ii) optimal catalyst design of heterogeneous catalytic systems. Both cases are formulated as a nonlinear optimization problem that is subject to a mean-field microkinetic model and thermodynamic consistency requirements as constraints, for which we seek sparse solutions through a ridge (L 2 regularization) penalty. The solution procedure involves an iterative sequence of forward simulation of the differential algebraic equations pertaining to the microkinetic model using a numerical tool capable of handling stiff systems, sensitivity calculations using linear algebra, and gradient-based nonlinear optimization.more » A multistart approach is used to explore the solution space, and a hierarchical clustering procedure is implemented for statistically classifying potentially competing solutions. An example of methanol synthesis through hydrogenation of CO and CO 2 on a Cu-based catalyst is used to illustrate the framework. The framework is fast, is robust, and can be used to comprehensively explore the model solution and design space of any heterogeneous catalytic system.« less

Quantifying and Generalizing Hydrologic Responses to Dam Regulation using a Statistical Modeling Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McManamay, Ryan A

2014-01-01

Despite the ubiquitous existence of dams within riverscapes, much of our knowledge about dams and their environmental effects remains context-specific. Hydrology, more than any other environmental variable, has been studied in great detail with regard to dam regulation. While much progress has been made in generalizing the hydrologic effects of regulation by large dams, many aspects of hydrology show site-specific fidelity to dam operations, small dams (including diversions), and regional hydrologic regimes. A statistical modeling framework is presented to quantify and generalize hydrologic responses to varying degrees of dam regulation. Specifically, the objectives were to 1) compare the effects ofmore » local versus cumulative dam regulation, 2) determine the importance of different regional hydrologic regimes in influencing hydrologic responses to dams, and 3) evaluate how different regulation contexts lead to error in predicting hydrologic responses to dams. Overall, model performance was poor in quantifying the magnitude of hydrologic responses, but performance was sufficient in classifying hydrologic responses as negative or positive. Responses of some hydrologic indices to dam regulation were highly dependent upon hydrologic class membership and the purpose of the dam. The opposing coefficients between local and cumulative-dam predictors suggested that hydrologic responses to cumulative dam regulation are complex, and predicting the hydrology downstream of individual dams, as opposed to multiple dams, may be more easy accomplished using statistical approaches. Results also suggested that particular contexts, including multipurpose dams, high cumulative regulation by multiple dams, diversions, close proximity to dams, and certain hydrologic classes are all sources of increased error when predicting hydrologic responses to dams. Statistical models, such as the ones presented herein, show promise in their ability to model the effects of dam regulation effects at large spatial scales as to generalize the directionality of hydrologic responses.« less

PharmML in Action: an Interoperable Language for Modeling and Simulation

PubMed Central

Bizzotto, R; Smith, G; Yvon, F; Kristensen, NR; Swat, MJ

2017-01-01

PharmML1 is an XML‐based exchange format2, 3, 4 created with a focus on nonlinear mixed‐effect (NLME) models used in pharmacometrics,5, 6 but providing a very general framework that also allows describing mathematical and statistical models such as single‐subject or nonlinear and multivariate regression models. This tutorial provides an overview of the structure of this language, brief suggestions on how to work with it, and use cases demonstrating its power and flexibility. PMID:28575551

Rigorous Statistical Bounds in Uncertainty Quantification for One-Layer Turbulent Geophysical Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Di; Majda, Andrew J.

2018-04-01

Statistical bounds controlling the total fluctuations in mean and variance about a basic steady-state solution are developed for the truncated barotropic flow over topography. Statistical ensemble prediction is an important topic in weather and climate research. Here, the evolution of an ensemble of trajectories is considered using statistical instability analysis and is compared and contrasted with the classical deterministic instability for the growth of perturbations in one pointwise trajectory. The maximum growth of the total statistics in fluctuations is derived relying on the statistical conservation principle of the pseudo-energy. The saturation bound of the statistical mean fluctuation and variance in the unstable regimes with non-positive-definite pseudo-energy is achieved by linking with a class of stable reference states and minimizing the stable statistical energy. Two cases with dependence on initial statistical uncertainty and on external forcing and dissipation are compared and unified under a consistent statistical stability framework. The flow structures and statistical stability bounds are illustrated and verified by numerical simulations among a wide range of dynamical regimes, where subtle transient statistical instability exists in general with positive short-time exponential growth in the covariance even when the pseudo-energy is positive-definite. Among the various scenarios in this paper, there exist strong forward and backward energy exchanges between different scales which are estimated by the rigorous statistical bounds.

Reconciling statistical and systems science approaches to public health.

PubMed

Ip, Edward H; Rahmandad, Hazhir; Shoham, David A; Hammond, Ross; Huang, Terry T-K; Wang, Youfa; Mabry, Patricia L

2013-10-01

Although systems science has emerged as a set of innovative approaches to study complex phenomena, many topically focused researchers including clinicians and scientists working in public health are somewhat befuddled by this methodology that at times appears to be radically different from analytic methods, such as statistical modeling, to which the researchers are accustomed. There also appears to be conflicts between complex systems approaches and traditional statistical methodologies, both in terms of their underlying strategies and the languages they use. We argue that the conflicts are resolvable, and the sooner the better for the field. In this article, we show how statistical and systems science approaches can be reconciled, and how together they can advance solutions to complex problems. We do this by comparing the methods within a theoretical framework based on the work of population biologist Richard Levins. We present different types of models as representing different tradeoffs among the four desiderata of generality, realism, fit, and precision.

Reconciling Statistical and Systems Science Approaches to Public Health

PubMed Central

Ip, Edward H.; Rahmandad, Hazhir; Shoham, David A.; Hammond, Ross; Huang, Terry T.-K.; Wang, Youfa; Mabry, Patricia L.

2016-01-01

Although systems science has emerged as a set of innovative approaches to study complex phenomena, many topically focused researchers including clinicians and scientists working in public health are somewhat befuddled by this methodology that at times appears to be radically different from analytic methods, such as statistical modeling, to which the researchers are accustomed. There also appears to be conflicts between complex systems approaches and traditional statistical methodologies, both in terms of their underlying strategies and the languages they use. We argue that the conflicts are resolvable, and the sooner the better for the field. In this article, we show how statistical and systems science approaches can be reconciled, and how together they can advance solutions to complex problems. We do this by comparing the methods within a theoretical framework based on the work of population biologist Richard Levins. We present different types of models as representing different tradeoffs among the four desiderata of generality, realism, fit, and precision. PMID:24084395

Admixture, Population Structure, and F-Statistics.

PubMed

Peter, Benjamin M

2016-04-01

Many questions about human genetic history can be addressed by examining the patterns of shared genetic variation between sets of populations. A useful methodological framework for this purpose isF-statistics that measure shared genetic drift between sets of two, three, and four populations and can be used to test simple and complex hypotheses about admixture between populations. This article provides context from phylogenetic and population genetic theory. I review how F-statistics can be interpreted as branch lengths or paths and derive new interpretations, using coalescent theory. I further show that the admixture tests can be interpreted as testing general properties of phylogenies, allowing extension of some ideas applications to arbitrary phylogenetic trees. The new results are used to investigate the behavior of the statistics under different models of population structure and show how population substructure complicates inference. The results lead to simplified estimators in many cases, and I recommend to replace F3 with the average number of pairwise differences for estimating population divergence. Copyright © 2016 by the Genetics Society of America.

Statistics of Macroturbulence from Flow Equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marston, Brad; Iadecola, Thomas; Qi, Wanming

2012-02-01

Probability distribution functions of stochastically-driven and frictionally-damped fluids are governed by a linear framework that resembles quantum many-body theory. Besides the Fokker-Planck approach, there is a closely related Hopf functional methodfootnotetextOokie Ma and J. B. Marston, J. Stat. Phys. Th. Exp. P10007 (2005).; in both formalisms, zero modes of linear operators describe the stationary non-equilibrium statistics. To access the statistics, we generalize the flow equation approachfootnotetextF. Wegner, Ann. Phys. 3, 77 (1994). (also known as the method of continuous unitary transformationsfootnotetextS. D. Glazek and K. G. Wilson, Phys. Rev. D 48, 5863 (1993); Phys. Rev. D 49, 4214 (1994).) to find the zero mode. We test the approach using a prototypical model of geophysical and astrophysical flows on a rotating sphere that spontaneously organizes into a coherent jet. Good agreement is found with low-order equal-time statistics accumulated by direct numerical simulation, the traditional method. Different choices for the generators of the continuous transformations, and for closure approximations of the operator algebra, are discussed.

UNITY: Confronting Supernova Cosmology's Statistical and Systematic Uncertainties in a Unified Bayesian Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubin, D.; Aldering, G.; Barbary, K.; Boone, K.; Chappell, G.; Currie, M.; Deustua, S.; Fagrelius, P.; Fruchter, A.; Hayden, B.; Lidman, C.; Nordin, J.; Perlmutter, S.; Saunders, C.; Sofiatti, C.; Supernova Cosmology Project, The

2015-11-01

While recent supernova (SN) cosmology research has benefited from improved measurements, current analysis approaches are not statistically optimal and will prove insufficient for future surveys. This paper discusses the limitations of current SN cosmological analyses in treating outliers, selection effects, shape- and color-standardization relations, unexplained dispersion, and heterogeneous observations. We present a new Bayesian framework, called UNITY (Unified Nonlinear Inference for Type-Ia cosmologY), that incorporates significant improvements in our ability to confront these effects. We apply the framework to real SN observations and demonstrate smaller statistical and systematic uncertainties. We verify earlier results that SNe Ia require nonlinear shape and color standardizations, but we now include these nonlinear relations in a statistically well-justified way. This analysis was primarily performed blinded, in that the basic framework was first validated on simulated data before transitioning to real data. We also discuss possible extensions of the method.

Method to characterize directional changes in Arctic sea ice drift and associated deformation due to synoptic atmospheric variations using Lagrangian dispersion statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lukovich, Jennifer V.; Geiger, Cathleen A.; Barber, David G.

2017-07-01

A framework is developed to assess the directional changes in sea ice drift paths and associated deformation processes in response to atmospheric forcing. The framework is based on Lagrangian statistical analyses leveraging particle dispersion theory which tells us whether ice drift is in a subdiffusive, diffusive, ballistic, or superdiffusive dynamical regime using single-particle (absolute) dispersion statistics. In terms of sea ice deformation, the framework uses two- and three-particle dispersion to characterize along- and across-shear transport as well as differential kinematic parameters. The approach is tested with GPS beacons deployed in triplets on sea ice in the southern Beaufort Sea at varying distances from the coastline in fall of 2009 with eight individual events characterized. One transition in particular follows the sea level pressure (SLP) high on 8 October in 2009 while the sea ice drift was in a superdiffusive dynamic regime. In this case, the dispersion scaling exponent (which is a slope between single-particle absolute dispersion of sea ice drift and elapsed time) changed from superdiffusive (α ˜ 3) to ballistic (α ˜ 2) as the SLP was rounding its maximum pressure value. Following this shift between regimes, there was a loss in synchronicity between sea ice drift and atmospheric motion patterns. While this is only one case study, the outcomes suggest similar studies be conducted on more buoy arrays to test momentum transfer linkages between storms and sea ice responses as a function of dispersion regime states using scaling exponents. The tools and framework developed in this study provide a unique characterization technique to evaluate these states with respect to sea ice processes in general. Application of these techniques can aid ice hazard assessments and weather forecasting in support of marine transportation and indigenous use of near-shore Arctic areas.

A novel bi-level meta-analysis approach: applied to biological pathway analysis.

PubMed

Nguyen, Tin; Tagett, Rebecca; Donato, Michele; Mitrea, Cristina; Draghici, Sorin

2016-02-01

The accumulation of high-throughput data in public repositories creates a pressing need for integrative analysis of multiple datasets from independent experiments. However, study heterogeneity, study bias, outliers and the lack of power of available methods present real challenge in integrating genomic data. One practical drawback of many P-value-based meta-analysis methods, including Fisher's, Stouffer's, minP and maxP, is that they are sensitive to outliers. Another drawback is that, because they perform just one statistical test for each individual experiment, they may not fully exploit the potentially large number of samples within each study. We propose a novel bi-level meta-analysis approach that employs the additive method and the Central Limit Theorem within each individual experiment and also across multiple experiments. We prove that the bi-level framework is robust against bias, less sensitive to outliers than other methods, and more sensitive to small changes in signal. For comparative analysis, we demonstrate that the intra-experiment analysis has more power than the equivalent statistical test performed on a single large experiment. For pathway analysis, we compare the proposed framework versus classical meta-analysis approaches (Fisher's, Stouffer's and the additive method) as well as against a dedicated pathway meta-analysis package (MetaPath), using 1252 samples from 21 datasets related to three human diseases, acute myeloid leukemia (9 datasets), type II diabetes (5 datasets) and Alzheimer's disease (7 datasets). Our framework outperforms its competitors to correctly identify pathways relevant to the phenotypes. The framework is sufficiently general to be applied to any type of statistical meta-analysis. The R scripts are available on demand from the authors. sorin@wayne.edu Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Scaling and stochastic cascade properties of NEMO oceanic simulations and their potential value for GCM evaluation and downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verrier, Sébastien; Crépon, Michel; Thiria, Sylvie

2014-09-01

Spectral scaling properties have already been evidenced on oceanic numerical simulations and have been subject to several interpretations. They can be used to evaluate classical turbulence theories that predict scaling with specific exponents and to evaluate the quality of GCM outputs from a statistical and multiscale point of view. However, a more complete framework based on multifractal cascades is able to generalize the classical but restrictive second-order spectral framework to other moment orders, providing an accurate description of probability distributions of the fields at multiple scales. The predictions of this formalism still needed systematic verification in oceanic GCM while they have been confirmed recently for their atmospheric counterparts by several papers. The present paper is devoted to a systematic analysis of several oceanic fields produced by the NEMO oceanic GCM. Attention is focused to regional, idealized configurations that permit to evaluate the NEMO engine core from a scaling point of view regardless of limitations involved by land masks. Based on classical multifractal analysis tools, multifractal properties were evidenced for several oceanic state variables (sea surface temperature and salinity, velocity components, etc.). While first-order structure functions estimated a different nonconservativity parameter H in two scaling ranges, the multiorder statistics of turbulent fluxes were scaling over almost the whole available scaling range. This multifractal scaling was then parameterized with the help of the universal multifractal framework, providing parameters that are coherent with existing empirical literature. Finally, we argue that the knowledge of these properties may be useful for oceanographers. The framework seems very well suited for the statistical evaluation of OGCM outputs. Moreover, it also provides practical solutions to simulate subpixel variability stochastically for GCM downscaling purposes. As an independent perspective, the existence of multifractal properties in oceanic flows seems also interesting for investigating scale dependencies in remote sensing inversion algorithms.

An advanced kinetic theory for morphing continuum with inner structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, James

2017-12-01

Advanced kinetic theory with the Boltzmann-Curtiss equation provides a promising tool for polyatomic gas flows, especially for fluid flows containing inner structures, such as turbulence, polyatomic gas flows and others. Although a Hamiltonian-based distribution function was proposed for diatomic gas flow, a general distribution function for the generalized Boltzmann-Curtiss equations and polyatomic gas flow is still out of reach. With assistance from Boltzmann's entropy principle, a generalized Boltzmann-Curtiss distribution for polyatomic gas flow is introduced. The corresponding governing equations at equilibrium state are derived and compared with Eringen's morphing (micropolar) continuum theory derived under the framework of rational continuum thermomechanics. Although rational continuum thermomechanics has the advantages of mathematical rigor and simplicity, the presented statistical kinetic theory approach provides a clear physical picture for what the governing equations represent.

Complex Quantum Network Manifolds in Dimension d > 2 are Scale-Free

PubMed Central

Bianconi, Ginestra; Rahmede, Christoph

2015-01-01

In quantum gravity, several approaches have been proposed until now for the quantum description of discrete geometries. These theoretical frameworks include loop quantum gravity, causal dynamical triangulations, causal sets, quantum graphity, and energetic spin networks. Most of these approaches describe discrete spaces as homogeneous network manifolds. Here we define Complex Quantum Network Manifolds (CQNM) describing the evolution of quantum network states, and constructed from growing simplicial complexes of dimension . We show that in d = 2 CQNM are homogeneous networks while for d > 2 they are scale-free i.e. they are characterized by large inhomogeneities of degrees like most complex networks. From the self-organized evolution of CQNM quantum statistics emerge spontaneously. Here we define the generalized degrees associated with the -faces of the -dimensional CQNMs, and we show that the statistics of these generalized degrees can either follow Fermi-Dirac, Boltzmann or Bose-Einstein distributions depending on the dimension of the -faces. PMID:26356079

Complex Quantum Network Manifolds in Dimension d > 2 are Scale-Free.

PubMed

Bianconi, Ginestra; Rahmede, Christoph

2015-09-10

In quantum gravity, several approaches have been proposed until now for the quantum description of discrete geometries. These theoretical frameworks include loop quantum gravity, causal dynamical triangulations, causal sets, quantum graphity, and energetic spin networks. Most of these approaches describe discrete spaces as homogeneous network manifolds. Here we define Complex Quantum Network Manifolds (CQNM) describing the evolution of quantum network states, and constructed from growing simplicial complexes of dimension d. We show that in d = 2 CQNM are homogeneous networks while for d > 2 they are scale-free i.e. they are characterized by large inhomogeneities of degrees like most complex networks. From the self-organized evolution of CQNM quantum statistics emerge spontaneously. Here we define the generalized degrees associated with the δ-faces of the d-dimensional CQNMs, and we show that the statistics of these generalized degrees can either follow Fermi-Dirac, Boltzmann or Bose-Einstein distributions depending on the dimension of the δ-faces.

Estimation of integral curves from high angular resolution diffusion imaging (HARDI) data.

PubMed

Carmichael, Owen; Sakhanenko, Lyudmila

2015-05-15

We develop statistical methodology for a popular brain imaging technique HARDI based on the high order tensor model by Özarslan and Mareci [10]. We investigate how uncertainty in the imaging procedure propagates through all levels of the model: signals, tensor fields, vector fields, and fibers. We construct asymptotically normal estimators of the integral curves or fibers which allow us to trace the fibers together with confidence ellipsoids. The procedure is computationally intense as it blends linear algebra concepts from high order tensors with asymptotical statistical analysis. The theoretical results are illustrated on simulated and real datasets. This work generalizes the statistical methodology proposed for low angular resolution diffusion tensor imaging by Carmichael and Sakhanenko [3], to several fibers per voxel. It is also a pioneering statistical work on tractography from HARDI data. It avoids all the typical limitations of the deterministic tractography methods and it delivers the same information as probabilistic tractography methods. Our method is computationally cheap and it provides well-founded mathematical and statistical framework where diverse functionals on fibers, directions and tensors can be studied in a systematic and rigorous way.

Estimation of integral curves from high angular resolution diffusion imaging (HARDI) data

PubMed Central

Carmichael, Owen; Sakhanenko, Lyudmila

2015-01-01

We develop statistical methodology for a popular brain imaging technique HARDI based on the high order tensor model by Özarslan and Mareci [10]. We investigate how uncertainty in the imaging procedure propagates through all levels of the model: signals, tensor fields, vector fields, and fibers. We construct asymptotically normal estimators of the integral curves or fibers which allow us to trace the fibers together with confidence ellipsoids. The procedure is computationally intense as it blends linear algebra concepts from high order tensors with asymptotical statistical analysis. The theoretical results are illustrated on simulated and real datasets. This work generalizes the statistical methodology proposed for low angular resolution diffusion tensor imaging by Carmichael and Sakhanenko [3], to several fibers per voxel. It is also a pioneering statistical work on tractography from HARDI data. It avoids all the typical limitations of the deterministic tractography methods and it delivers the same information as probabilistic tractography methods. Our method is computationally cheap and it provides well-founded mathematical and statistical framework where diverse functionals on fibers, directions and tensors can be studied in a systematic and rigorous way. PMID:25937674

Unitary n -designs via random quenches in atomic Hubbard and spin models: Application to the measurement of Rényi entropies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vermersch, B.; Elben, A.; Dalmonte, M.; Cirac, J. I.; Zoller, P.

2018-02-01

We present a general framework for the generation of random unitaries based on random quenches in atomic Hubbard and spin models, forming approximate unitary n -designs, and their application to the measurement of Rényi entropies. We generalize our protocol presented in Elben et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 120, 050406 (2018), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.120.050406] to a broad class of atomic and spin-lattice models. We further present an in-depth numerical and analytical study of experimental imperfections, including the effect of decoherence and statistical errors, and discuss connections of our approach with many-body quantum chaos.

Joint Clustering and Component Analysis of Correspondenceless Point Sets: Application to Cardiac Statistical Modeling.

PubMed

Gooya, Ali; Lekadir, Karim; Alba, Xenia; Swift, Andrew J; Wild, Jim M; Frangi, Alejandro F

2015-01-01

Construction of Statistical Shape Models (SSMs) from arbitrary point sets is a challenging problem due to significant shape variation and lack of explicit point correspondence across the training data set. In medical imaging, point sets can generally represent different shape classes that span healthy and pathological exemplars. In such cases, the constructed SSM may not generalize well, largely because the probability density function (pdf) of the point sets deviates from the underlying assumption of Gaussian statistics. To this end, we propose a generative model for unsupervised learning of the pdf of point sets as a mixture of distinctive classes. A Variational Bayesian (VB) method is proposed for making joint inferences on the labels of point sets, and the principal modes of variations in each cluster. The method provides a flexible framework to handle point sets with no explicit point-to-point correspondences. We also show that by maximizing the marginalized likelihood of the model, the optimal number of clusters of point sets can be determined. We illustrate this work in the context of understanding the anatomical phenotype of the left and right ventricles in heart. To this end, we use a database containing hearts of healthy subjects, patients with Pulmonary Hypertension (PH), and patients with Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (HCM). We demonstrate that our method can outperform traditional PCA in both generalization and specificity measures.

Vulnerability and cosusceptibility determine the size of network cascades

DOE PAGES

Yang, Yang; Nishikawa, Takashi; Motter, Adilson E.

2017-01-27

In a network, a local disturbance can propagate and eventually cause a substantial part of the system to fail in cascade events that are easy to conceptualize but extraordinarily difficult to predict. Furthermore, we develop a statistical framework that can predict cascade size distributions by incorporating two ingredients only: the vulnerability of individual components and the cosusceptibility of groups of components (i.e., their tendency to fail together). Using cascades in power grids as a representative example, we show that correlations between component failures define structured and often surprisingly large groups of cosusceptible components. Aside from their implications for blackout studies,more » these results provide insights and a new modeling framework for understanding cascades in financial systems, food webs, and complex networks in general.« less

Sequential Inverse Problems Bayesian Principles and the Logistic Map Example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Lian; Farmer, Chris L.; Moroz, Irene M.

2010-09-01

Bayesian statistics provides a general framework for solving inverse problems, but is not without interpretation and implementation problems. This paper discusses difficulties arising from the fact that forward models are always in error to some extent. Using a simple example based on the one-dimensional logistic map, we argue that, when implementation problems are minimal, the Bayesian framework is quite adequate. In this paper the Bayesian Filter is shown to be able to recover excellent state estimates in the perfect model scenario (PMS) and to distinguish the PMS from the imperfect model scenario (IMS). Through a quantitative comparison of the way in which the observations are assimilated in both the PMS and the IMS scenarios, we suggest that one can, sometimes, measure the degree of imperfection.

A two-dimensional statistical framework connecting thermodynamic profiles with filaments in the scrape off layer and application to experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Militello, F.; Farley, T.; Mukhi, K.; Walkden, N.; Omotani, J. T.

2018-05-01

A statistical framework was introduced in Militello and Omotani [Nucl. Fusion 56, 104004 (2016)] to correlate the dynamics and statistics of L-mode and inter-ELM plasma filaments with the radial profiles of thermodynamic quantities they generate in the Scrape Off Layer. This paper extends the framework to cases in which the filaments are emitted from the separatrix at different toroidal positions and with a finite toroidal velocity. It is found that the toroidal velocity does not affect the profiles, while the toroidal distribution of filament emission renormalises the waiting time between two events. Experimental data collected by visual camera imaging are used to evaluate the statistics of the fluctuations, to inform the choice of the probability distribution functions used in the application of the framework. It is found that the toroidal separation of the filaments is exponentially distributed, thus suggesting the lack of a toroidal modal structure. Finally, using these measurements, the framework is applied to an experimental case and good agreement is found.

A Framework for Performing Multiscale Stochastic Progressive Failure Analysis of Composite Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Arnold, Steven M.

2006-01-01

A framework is presented that enables coupled multiscale analysis of composite structures. The recently developed, free, Finite Element Analysis - Micromechanics Analysis Code (FEAMAC) software couples the Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) with ABAQUS to perform micromechanics based FEA such that the nonlinear composite material response at each integration point is modeled at each increment by MAC/GMC. As a result, the stochastic nature of fiber breakage in composites can be simulated through incorporation of an appropriate damage and failure model that operates within MAC/GMC on the level of the fiber. Results are presented for the progressive failure analysis of a titanium matrix composite tensile specimen that illustrate the power and utility of the framework and address the techniques needed to model the statistical nature of the problem properly. In particular, it is shown that incorporating fiber strength randomness on multiple scales improves the quality of the simulation by enabling failure at locations other than those associated with structural level stress risers.

A Framework for Performing Multiscale Stochastic Progressive Failure Analysis of Composite Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Arnold, Steven M.

2007-01-01

A framework is presented that enables coupled multiscale analysis of composite structures. The recently developed, free, Finite Element Analysis-Micromechanics Analysis Code (FEAMAC) software couples the Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) with ABAQUS to perform micromechanics based FEA such that the nonlinear composite material response at each integration point is modeled at each increment by MAC/GMC. As a result, the stochastic nature of fiber breakage in composites can be simulated through incorporation of an appropriate damage and failure model that operates within MAC/GMC on the level of the fiber. Results are presented for the progressive failure analysis of a titanium matrix composite tensile specimen that illustrate the power and utility of the framework and address the techniques needed to model the statistical nature of the problem properly. In particular, it is shown that incorporating fiber strength randomness on multiple scales improves the quality of the simulation by enabling failure at locations other than those associated with structural level stress risers.

Data Analysis with Graphical Models: Software Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buntine, Wray L.

1994-01-01

Probabilistic graphical models (directed and undirected Markov fields, and combined in chain graphs) are used widely in expert systems, image processing and other areas as a framework for representing and reasoning with probabilities. They come with corresponding algorithms for performing probabilistic inference. This paper discusses an extension to these models by Spiegelhalter and Gilks, plates, used to graphically model the notion of a sample. This offers a graphical specification language for representing data analysis problems. When combined with general methods for statistical inference, this also offers a unifying framework for prototyping and/or generating data analysis algorithms from graphical specifications. This paper outlines the framework and then presents some basic tools for the task: a graphical version of the Pitman-Koopman Theorem for the exponential family, problem decomposition, and the calculation of exact Bayes factors. Other tools already developed, such as automatic differentiation, Gibbs sampling, and use of the EM algorithm, make this a broad basis for the generation of data analysis software.

An Argument Framework for the Application of Null Hypothesis Statistical Testing in Support of Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

LeMire, Steven D.

2010-01-01

This paper proposes an argument framework for the teaching of null hypothesis statistical testing and its application in support of research. Elements of the Toulmin (1958) model of argument are used to illustrate the use of p values and Type I and Type II error rates in support of claims about statistical parameters and subject matter research…

Statistical analysis of water-quality data containing multiple detection limits II: S-language software for nonparametric distribution modeling and hypothesis testing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, L.; Helsel, D.

2007-01-01

Analysis of low concentrations of trace contaminants in environmental media often results in left-censored data that are below some limit of analytical precision. Interpretation of values becomes complicated when there are multiple detection limits in the data-perhaps as a result of changing analytical precision over time. Parametric and semi-parametric methods, such as maximum likelihood estimation and robust regression on order statistics, can be employed to model distributions of multiply censored data and provide estimates of summary statistics. However, these methods are based on assumptions about the underlying distribution of data. Nonparametric methods provide an alternative that does not require such assumptions. A standard nonparametric method for estimating summary statistics of multiply-censored data is the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) method. This method has seen widespread usage in the medical sciences within a general framework termed "survival analysis" where it is employed with right-censored time-to-failure data. However, K-M methods are equally valid for the left-censored data common in the geosciences. Our S-language software provides an analytical framework based on K-M methods that is tailored to the needs of the earth and environmental sciences community. This includes routines for the generation of empirical cumulative distribution functions, prediction or exceedance probabilities, and related confidence limits computation. Additionally, our software contains K-M-based routines for nonparametric hypothesis testing among an unlimited number of grouping variables. A primary characteristic of K-M methods is that they do not perform extrapolation and interpolation. Thus, these routines cannot be used to model statistics beyond the observed data range or when linear interpolation is desired. For such applications, the aforementioned parametric and semi-parametric methods must be used.

Repulsive particles under a general external potential: Thermodynamics by neglecting thermal noise.

PubMed

Ribeiro, Mauricio S; Nobre, Fernando D

2016-08-01

A recent proposal of an effective temperature θ, conjugated to a generalized entropy s_{q}, typical of nonextensive statistical mechanics, has led to a consistent thermodynamic framework in the case q=2. The proposal was explored for repulsively interacting vortices, currently used for modeling type-II superconductors. In these systems, the variable θ presents values much higher than those of typical room temperatures T, so that the thermal noise can be neglected (T/θ≃0). The whole procedure was developed for an equilibrium state obtained after a sufficiently long-time evolution, associated with a nonlinear Fokker-Planck equation and approached due to a confining external harmonic potential, ϕ(x)=αx^{2}/2 (α>0). Herein, the thermodynamic framework is extended to a quite general confining potential, namely ϕ(x)=α|x|^{z}/z (z>1). It is shown that the main results of the previous analyses hold for any z>1: (i) The definition of the effective temperature θ conjugated to the entropy s_{2}. (ii) The construction of a Carnot cycle, whose efficiency is shown to be η=1-(θ_{2}/θ_{1}), where θ_{1} and θ_{2} are the effective temperatures associated with two isothermal transformations, with θ_{1}>θ_{2}. The special character of the Carnot cycle is indicated by analyzing another cycle that presents an efficiency depending on z. (iii) Applying Legendre transformations for a distinct pair of variables, different thermodynamic potentials are obtained, and furthermore, Maxwell relations and response functions are derived. The present approach shows a consistent thermodynamic framework, suggesting that these results should hold for a general confining potential ϕ(x), increasing the possibility of experimental verifications.

Statistical Irreversible Thermodynamics in the Framework of Zubarev's Nonequilibrium Statistical Operator Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luzzi, R.; Vasconcellos, A. R.; Ramos, J. G.; Rodrigues, C. G.

2018-01-01

We describe the formalism of statistical irreversible thermodynamics constructed based on Zubarev's nonequilibrium statistical operator (NSO) method, which is a powerful and universal tool for investigating the most varied physical phenomena. We present brief overviews of the statistical ensemble formalism and statistical irreversible thermodynamics. The first can be constructed either based on a heuristic approach or in the framework of information theory in the Jeffreys-Jaynes scheme of scientific inference; Zubarev and his school used both approaches in formulating the NSO method. We describe the main characteristics of statistical irreversible thermodynamics and discuss some particular considerations of several authors. We briefly describe how Rosenfeld, Bohr, and Prigogine proposed to derive a thermodynamic uncertainty principle.

Class imbalance in unsupervised change detection - A diagnostic analysis from urban remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leichtle, Tobias; Geiß, Christian; Lakes, Tobia; Taubenböck, Hannes

2017-08-01

Automatic monitoring of changes on the Earth's surface is an intrinsic capability and simultaneously a persistent methodological challenge in remote sensing, especially regarding imagery with very-high spatial resolution (VHR) and complex urban environments. In order to enable a high level of automatization, the change detection problem is solved in an unsupervised way to alleviate efforts associated with collection of properly encoded prior knowledge. In this context, this paper systematically investigates the nature and effects of class distribution and class imbalance in an unsupervised binary change detection application based on VHR imagery over urban areas. For this purpose, a diagnostic framework for sensitivity analysis of a large range of possible degrees of class imbalance is presented, which is of particular importance with respect to unsupervised approaches where the content of images and thus the occurrence and the distribution of classes are generally unknown a priori. Furthermore, this framework can serve as a general technique to evaluate model transferability in any two-class classification problem. The applied change detection approach is based on object-based difference features calculated from VHR imagery and subsequent unsupervised two-class clustering using k-means, genetic k-means and self-organizing map (SOM) clustering. The results from two test sites with different structural characteristics of the built environment demonstrated that classification performance is generally worse in imbalanced class distribution settings while best results were reached in balanced or close to balanced situations. Regarding suitable accuracy measures for evaluating model performance in imbalanced settings, this study revealed that the Kappa statistics show significant response to class distribution while the true skill statistic was widely insensitive to imbalanced classes. In general, the genetic k-means clustering algorithm achieved the most robust results with respect to class imbalance while the SOM clustering exhibited a distinct optimization towards a balanced distribution of classes.

Phase Transitions in Finite Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chomaz, Philippe; Gulminelli, Francesca

In this series of lectures we will first review the general theory of phase transition in the framework of information theory and briefly address some of the well known mean field solutions of three dimensional problems. The theory of phase transitions in finite systems will then be discussed, with a special emphasis to the conceptual problems linked to a thermodynamical description for small, short-lived, open systems as metal clusters and data samples coming from nuclear collisions. The concept of negative heat capacity developed in the early seventies in the context of self-gravitating systems will be reinterpreted in the general framework of convexity anomalies of thermostatistical potentials. The connection with the distribution of the order parameter will lead us to a definition of first order phase transitions in finite systems based on topology anomalies of the event distribution in the space of observations. Finally a careful study of the thermodynamical limit will provide a bridge with the standard theory of phase transitions and show that in a wide class of physical situations the different statistical ensembles are irreducibly inequivalent.

The Gtr-Model a Universal Framework for Quantum-Like Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aerts, Diederik; Bianchi, Massimiliano Sassoli De

We present a very general geometrico-dynamical description of physical or more abstract entities, called the general tension-reduction (GTR) model, where not only states, but also measurement-interactions can be represented, and the associated outcome probabilities calculated. Underlying the model is the hypothesis that indeterminism manifests as a consequence of unavoidable uctuations in the experimental context, in accordance with the hidden-measurements interpretation of quantum mechanics. When the structure of the state space is Hilbertian, and measurements are of the universal kind, i.e., are the result of an average over all possible ways of selecting an outcome, the GTR-model provides the same predictions of the Born rule, and therefore provides a natural completed version of quantum mechanics. However, when the structure of the state space is non-Hilbertian and/or not all possible ways of selecting an outcome are available to be actualized, the predictions of the model generally differ from the quantum ones, especially when sequential measurements are considered. Some paradigmatic examples will be discussed, taken from physics and human cognition. Particular attention will be given to some known psychological effects, like question order effects and response replicability, which we show are able to generate non-Hilbertian statistics. We also suggest a realistic interpretation of the GTR-model, when applied to human cognition and decision, which we think could become the generally adopted interpretative framework in quantum cognition research.

Statistics of extreme waves in the framework of one-dimensional Nonlinear Schrodinger Equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agafontsev, Dmitry; Zakharov, Vladimir

2013-04-01

We examine the statistics of extreme waves for one-dimensional classical focusing Nonlinear Schrodinger (NLS) equation, iΨt + Ψxx + |Ψ |2Ψ = 0, (1) as well as the influence of the first nonlinear term beyond Eq. (1) - the six-wave interactions - on the statistics of waves in the framework of generalized NLS equation accounting for six-wave interactions, dumping (linear dissipation, two- and three-photon absorption) and pumping terms, We solve these equations numerically in the box with periodically boundary conditions starting from the initial data Ψt=0 = F(x) + ?(x), where F(x) is an exact modulationally unstable solution of Eq. (1) seeded by stochastic noise ?(x) with fixed statistical properties. We examine two types of initial conditions F(x): (a) condensate state F(x) = 1 for Eq. (1)-(2) and (b) cnoidal wave for Eq. (1). The development of modulation instability in Eq. (1)-(2) leads to formation of one-dimensional wave turbulence. In the integrable case the turbulence is called integrable and relaxes to one of infinite possible stationary states. Addition of six-wave interactions term leads to appearance of collapses that eventually are regularized by the dumping terms. The energy lost during regularization of collapses in (2) is restored by the pumping term. In the latter case the system does not demonstrate relaxation-like behavior. We measure evolution of spectra Ik =< |Ψk|2 >, spatial correlation functions and the PDFs for waves amplitudes |Ψ|, concentrating special attention on formation of "fat tails" on the PDFs. For the classical integrable NLS equation (1) with condensate initial condition we observe Rayleigh tails for extremely large waves and a "breathing region" for middle waves with oscillations of the frequency of waves appearance with time, while nonintegrable NLS equation with dumping and pumping terms (2) with the absence of six-wave interactions α = 0 demonstrates perfectly Rayleigh PDFs without any oscillations with time. In case of the cnoidal wave initial condition we observe severely non-Rayleigh PDFs for the classical NLS equation (1) with the regions corresponding to 2-, 3- and so on soliton collisions clearly seen of the PDFs. Addition of six-wave interactions in Eq. (2) for condensate initial condition results in appearance of non-Rayleigh addition to the PDFs that increase with six-wave interaction constant α and disappears with the absence of six-wave interactions α = 0. References: [1] D.S. Agafontsev, V.E. Zakharov, Rogue waves statistics in the framework of one-dimensional Generalized Nonlinear Schrodinger Equation, arXiv:1202.5763v3.

Evidence of non-extensivity and complexity in the seismicity observed during 2011-2012 at the Santorini volcanic complex, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallianatos, F.; Tzanis, A.; Michas, G.; Papadakis, G.

2012-04-01

Since the middle of summer 2011, an increase in the seismicity rates of the volcanic complex system of Santorini Island, Greece, was observed. In the present work, the temporal distribution of seismicity, as well as the magnitude distribution of earthquakes, have been studied using the concept of Non-Extensive Statistical Physics (NESP; Tsallis, 2009) along with the evolution of Shanon entropy H (also called information entropy). The analysis is based on the earthquake catalogue of the Geodynamic Institute of the National Observatory of Athens for the period July 2011-January 2012 (http://www.gein.noa.gr/). Non-Extensive Statistical Physics, which is a generalization of Boltzmann-Gibbs statistical physics, seems a suitable framework for studying complex systems. The observed distributions of seismicity rates at Santorini can be described (fitted) with NESP models to exceptionally well. This implies the inherent complexity of the Santorini volcanic seismicity, the applicability of NESP concepts to volcanic earthquake activity and the usefulness of NESP in investigating phenomena exhibiting multifractality and long-range coupling effects. Acknowledgments. This work was supported in part by the THALES Program of the Ministry of Education of Greece and the European Union in the framework of the project entitled "Integrated understanding of Seismicity, using innovative Methodologies of Fracture mechanics along with Earthquake and non extensive statistical physics - Application to the geodynamic system of the Hellenic Arc. SEISMO FEAR HELLARC". GM and GP wish to acknowledge the partial support of the Greek State Scholarships Foundation (ΙΚΥ).

Environmental Statistics and Optimal Regulation

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Any organism is embedded in an environment that changes over time. The timescale for and statistics of environmental change, the precision with which the organism can detect its environment, and the costs and benefits of particular protein expression levels all will affect the suitability of different strategies–such as constitutive expression or graded response–for regulating protein levels in response to environmental inputs. We propose a general framework–here specifically applied to the enzymatic regulation of metabolism in response to changing concentrations of a basic nutrient–to predict the optimal regulatory strategy given the statistics of fluctuations in the environment and measurement apparatus, respectively, and the costs associated with enzyme production. We use this framework to address three fundamental questions: (i) when a cell should prefer thresholding to a graded response; (ii) when there is a fitness advantage to implementing a Bayesian decision rule; and (iii) when retaining memory of the past provides a selective advantage. We specifically find that: (i) relative convexity of enzyme expression cost and benefit influences the fitness of thresholding or graded responses; (ii) intermediate levels of measurement uncertainty call for a sophisticated Bayesian decision rule; and (iii) in dynamic contexts, intermediate levels of uncertainty call for retaining memory of the past. Statistical properties of the environment, such as variability and correlation times, set optimal biochemical parameters, such as thresholds and decay rates in signaling pathways. Our framework provides a theoretical basis for interpreting molecular signal processing algorithms and a classification scheme that organizes known regulatory strategies and may help conceptualize heretofore unknown ones. PMID:25254493

An extensive study of Bose-Einstein condensation in liquid helium using Tsallis statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guha, Atanu; Das, Prasanta Kumar

2018-05-01

Realistic scenario can be represented by general canonical ensemble way better than the ideal one, with proper parameter sets involved. We study the Bose-Einstein condensation phenomena of liquid helium within the framework of Tsallis statistics. With a comparatively high value of the deformation parameter q(∼ 1 . 4) , the theoretically calculated value of the critical temperature (Tc) of the phase transition of liquid helium is found to agree with the experimentally determined value (Tc = 2 . 17 K), although they differs from each other for q = 1 (undeformed scenario). This throws a light on the understanding of the phenomenon and connects temperature fluctuation(non-equilibrium conditions) with the interactions between atoms qualitatively. More interactions between atoms give rise to more non-equilibrium conditions which is as expected.

Rectifying full-counting statistics in a spin Seebeck engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Gaomin; Chen, Xiaobin; Ren, Jie; Wang, Jian

2018-02-01

In terms of the nonequilibrium Green's function framework, we formulate the full-counting statistics of conjugate thermal spin transport in a spin Seebeck engine, which is made by a metal-ferromagnet insulator interface driven by a temperature bias. We obtain general expressions of scaled cumulant generating functions of both heat and spin currents that hold special fluctuation symmetry relations, and demonstrate intriguing properties, such as rectification and negative differential effects of high-order fluctuations of thermal excited spin current, maximum output spin power, and efficiency. The transport and noise depend on the strongly fluctuating electron density of states at the interface. The results are relevant for designing an efficient spin Seebeck engine and can broaden our view in nonequilibrium thermodynamics and the nonlinear phenomenon in quantum transport systems.

Non-technical skills evaluation in the critical care air ambulance environment: introduction of an adapted rating instrument--an observational study.

PubMed

Myers, Julia A; Powell, David M C; Psirides, Alex; Hathaway, Karyn; Aldington, Sarah; Haney, Michael F

2016-03-08

In the isolated and dynamic health-care setting of critical care air ambulance transport, the quality of clinical care is strongly influenced by non-technical skills such as anticipating, recognising and understanding, decision making, and teamwork. However there are no published reports identifying or applying a non-technical skills framework specific to an intensive care air ambulance setting. The objective of this study was to adapt and evaluate a non-technical skills rating framework for the air ambulance clinical environment. In the first phase of the project the anaesthetists' non-technical skills (ANTS) framework was adapted to the air ambulance setting, using data collected directly from clinician groups, published literature, and field observation. In the second phase experienced and inexperienced inter-hospital transport clinicians completed a simulated critical care air transport scenario, and their non-technical skills performance was independently rated by two blinded assessors. Observed and self-rated general clinical performance ratings were also collected. Rank-based statistical tests were used to examine differences in the performance of experienced and inexperienced clinicians, and relationships between different assessment approaches and assessors. The framework developed during phase one was referred to as an aeromedical non-technical skills framework, or AeroNOTS. During phase two 16 physicians from speciality training programmes in intensive care, emergency medicine and anaesthesia took part in the clinical simulation study. Clinicians with inter-hospital transport experience performed more highly than those without experience, according to both AeroNOTS non-technical skills ratings (p = 0.001) and general performance ratings (p = 0.003). Self-ratings did not distinguish experienced from inexperienced transport clinicians (p = 0.32) and were not strongly associated with either observed general performance (r(s) = 0.4, p = 0.11) or observed non-technical skills performance (r(s) = 0.4, p = 0.1). This study describes a framework which characterises the non-technical skills required by critical care air ambulance clinicians, and distinguishes higher and lower levels of performance. The AeroNOTS framework could be used to facilitate education and training in non-technical skills for air ambulance clinicians, and further evaluation of this rating system is merited.

A Sensor Driven Probabilistic Method for Enabling Hyper Resolution Flood Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fries, K. J.; Salas, F.; Kerkez, B.

2016-12-01

A reduction in the cost of sensors and wireless communications is now enabling researchers and local governments to make flow, stage and rain measurements at locations that are not covered by existing USGS or state networks. We ask the question: how should these new sources of densified, street-level sensor measurements be used to make improved forecasts using the National Water Model (NWM)? Assimilating these data "into" the NWM can be challenging due to computational complexity, as well as heterogeneity of sensor and other input data. Instead, we introduce a machine learning and statistical framework that layers these data "on top" of the NWM outputs to improve high-resolution hydrologic and hydraulic forecasting. By generalizing our approach into a post-processing framework, a rapidly repeatable blueprint is generated for for decision makers who want to improve local forecasts by coupling sensor data with the NWM. We present preliminary results based on case studies in highly instrumented watersheds in the US. Through the use of statistical learning tools and hydrologic routing schemes, we demonstrate the ability of our approach to improve forecasts while simultaneously characterizing bias and uncertainty in the NWM.

The importance of coherence in inverse problems in optics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferwerda, H. A.; Baltes, H. P.; Glass, A. S.; Steinle, B.

1981-12-01

Current inverse problems of statistical optics are presented with a guide to relevant literature. The inverse problems are categorized into four groups, and the Van Cittert-Zernike theorem and its generalization are discussed. The retrieval of structural information from the far-zone degree of coherence and the time-averaged intensity distribution of radiation scattered by a superposition of random and periodic scatterers are also discussed. In addition, formulas for the calculation of far-zone properties are derived within the framework of scalar optics, and results are applied to two examples.

A generalized Levene's scale test for variance heterogeneity in the presence of sample correlation and group uncertainty.

PubMed

Soave, David; Sun, Lei

2017-09-01

We generalize Levene's test for variance (scale) heterogeneity between k groups for more complex data, when there are sample correlation and group membership uncertainty. Following a two-stage regression framework, we show that least absolute deviation regression must be used in the stage 1 analysis to ensure a correct asymptotic χk-12/(k-1) distribution of the generalized scale (gS) test statistic. We then show that the proposed gS test is independent of the generalized location test, under the joint null hypothesis of no mean and no variance heterogeneity. Consequently, we generalize the recently proposed joint location-scale (gJLS) test, valuable in settings where there is an interaction effect but one interacting variable is not available. We evaluate the proposed method via an extensive simulation study and two genetic association application studies. © 2017 The Authors Biometrics published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Biometric Society.

Framework for adaptive multiscale analysis of nonhomogeneous point processes.

PubMed

Helgason, Hannes; Bartroff, Jay; Abry, Patrice

2011-01-01

We develop the methodology for hypothesis testing and model selection in nonhomogeneous Poisson processes, with an eye toward the application of modeling and variability detection in heart beat data. Modeling the process' non-constant rate function using templates of simple basis functions, we develop the generalized likelihood ratio statistic for a given template and a multiple testing scheme to model-select from a family of templates. A dynamic programming algorithm inspired by network flows is used to compute the maximum likelihood template in a multiscale manner. In a numerical example, the proposed procedure is nearly as powerful as the super-optimal procedures that know the true template size and true partition, respectively. Extensions to general history-dependent point processes is discussed.

Structure-Specific Statistical Mapping of White Matter Tracts

PubMed Central

Yushkevich, Paul A.; Zhang, Hui; Simon, Tony; Gee, James C.

2008-01-01

We present a new model-based framework for the statistical analysis of diffusion imaging data associated with specific white matter tracts. The framework takes advantage of the fact that several of the major white matter tracts are thin sheet-like structures that can be effectively modeled by medial representations. The approach involves segmenting major tracts and fitting them with deformable geometric medial models. The medial representation makes it possible to average and combine tensor-based features along directions locally perpendicular to the tracts, thus reducing data dimensionality and accounting for errors in normalization. The framework enables the analysis of individual white matter structures, and provides a range of possibilities for computing statistics and visualizing differences between cohorts. The framework is demonstrated in a study of white matter differences in pediatric chromosome 22q11.2 deletion syndrome. PMID:18407524

A Survey of Statistical Models for Reverse Engineering Gene Regulatory Networks

PubMed Central

Huang, Yufei; Tienda-Luna, Isabel M.; Wang, Yufeng

2009-01-01

Statistical models for reverse engineering gene regulatory networks are surveyed in this article. To provide readers with a system-level view of the modeling issues in this research, a graphical modeling framework is proposed. This framework serves as the scaffolding on which the review of different models can be systematically assembled. Based on the framework, we review many existing models for many aspects of gene regulation; the pros and cons of each model are discussed. In addition, network inference algorithms are also surveyed under the graphical modeling framework by the categories of point solutions and probabilistic solutions and the connections and differences among the algorithms are provided. This survey has the potential to elucidate the development and future of reverse engineering GRNs and bring statistical signal processing closer to the core of this research. PMID:20046885

A unifying framework for quantifying the nature of animal interactions.

PubMed

Potts, Jonathan R; Mokross, Karl; Lewis, Mark A

2014-07-06

Collective phenomena, whereby agent-agent interactions determine spatial patterns, are ubiquitous in the animal kingdom. On the other hand, movement and space use are also greatly influenced by the interactions between animals and their environment. Despite both types of interaction fundamentally influencing animal behaviour, there has hitherto been no unifying framework for the models proposed in both areas. Here, we construct a general method for inferring population-level spatial patterns from underlying individual movement and interaction processes, a key ingredient in building a statistical mechanics for ecological systems. We show that resource selection functions, as well as several examples of collective motion models, arise as special cases of our framework, thus bringing together resource selection analysis and collective animal behaviour into a single theory. In particular, we focus on combining the various mechanistic models of territorial interactions in the literature with step selection functions, by incorporating interactions into the step selection framework and demonstrating how to derive territorial patterns from the resulting models. We demonstrate the efficacy of our model by application to a population of insectivore birds in the Amazon rainforest. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Geovisualization to support the exploration of large health and demographic survey data

PubMed Central

Koua, Etien L; Kraak, Menno-Jan

2004-01-01

Background Survey data are increasingly abundant from many international projects and national statistics. They are generally comprehensive and cover local, regional as well as national levels census in many domains including health, demography, human development, and economy. These surveys result in several hundred indicators. Geographical analysis of such large amount of data is often a difficult task and searching for patterns is particularly a difficult challenge. Geovisualization research is increasingly dealing with the exploration of patterns and relationships in such large datasets for understanding underlying geographical processes. One of the attempts has been to use Artificial Neural Networks as a technology especially useful in situations where the numbers are vast and the relationships are often unclear or even hidden. Results We investigate ways to integrate computational analysis based on a Self-Organizing Map neural network, with visual representations of derived structures and patterns in a framework for exploratory visualization to support visual data mining and knowledge discovery. The framework suggests ways to explore the general structure of the dataset in its multidimensional space in order to provide clues for further exploration of correlations and relationships. Conclusion In this paper, the proposed framework is used to explore a demographic and health survey data. Several graphical representations (information spaces) are used to depict the general structure and clustering of the data and get insight about the relationships among the different variables. Detail exploration of correlations and relationships among the attributes is provided. Results of the analysis are also presented in maps and other graphics. PMID:15180898

Comparison and Contrast of Two General Functional Regression Modeling Frameworks

PubMed Central

Morris, Jeffrey S.

2017-01-01

In this article, Greven and Scheipl describe an impressively general framework for performing functional regression that builds upon the generalized additive modeling framework. Over the past number of years, my collaborators and I have also been developing a general framework for functional regression, functional mixed models, which shares many similarities with this framework, but has many differences as well. In this discussion, I compare and contrast these two frameworks, to hopefully illuminate characteristics of each, highlighting their respecitve strengths and weaknesses, and providing recommendations regarding the settings in which each approach might be preferable. PMID:28736502

Comparison and Contrast of Two General Functional Regression Modeling Frameworks.

PubMed

Morris, Jeffrey S

2017-02-01

In this article, Greven and Scheipl describe an impressively general framework for performing functional regression that builds upon the generalized additive modeling framework. Over the past number of years, my collaborators and I have also been developing a general framework for functional regression, functional mixed models, which shares many similarities with this framework, but has many differences as well. In this discussion, I compare and contrast these two frameworks, to hopefully illuminate characteristics of each, highlighting their respecitve strengths and weaknesses, and providing recommendations regarding the settings in which each approach might be preferable.

History-dependent friction and slow slip from time-dependent microscopic junction laws studied in a statistical framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thøgersen, Kjetil; Trømborg, Jørgen Kjoshagen; Sveinsson, Henrik Andersen; Malthe-Sørenssen, Anders; Scheibert, Julien

2014-05-01

To study how macroscopic friction phenomena originate from microscopic junction laws, we introduce a general statistical framework describing the collective behavior of a large number of individual microjunctions forming a macroscopic frictional interface. Each microjunction can switch in time between two states: a pinned state characterized by a displacement-dependent force and a slipping state characterized by a time-dependent force. Instead of tracking each microjunction individually, the state of the interface is described by two coupled distributions for (i) the stretching of pinned junctions and (ii) the time spent in the slipping state. This framework allows for a whole family of microjunction behavior laws, and we show how it represents an overarching structure for many existing models found in the friction literature. We then use this framework to pinpoint the effects of the time scale that controls the duration of the slipping state. First, we show that the model reproduces a series of friction phenomena already observed experimentally. The macroscopic steady-state friction force is velocity dependent, either monotonic (strengthening or weakening) or nonmonotonic (weakening-strengthening), depending on the microscopic behavior of individual junctions. In addition, slow slip, which has been reported in a wide variety of systems, spontaneously occurs in the model if the friction contribution from junctions in the slipping state is time weakening. Next, we show that the model predicts a nontrivial history dependence of the macroscopic static friction force. In particular, the static friction coefficient at the onset of sliding is shown to increase with increasing deceleration during the final phases of the preceding sliding event. We suggest that this form of history dependence of static friction should be investigated in experiments, and we provide the acceleration range in which this effect is expected to be experimentally observable.

History-dependent friction and slow slip from time-dependent microscopic junction laws studied in a statistical framework.

PubMed

Thøgersen, Kjetil; Trømborg, Jørgen Kjoshagen; Sveinsson, Henrik Andersen; Malthe-Sørenssen, Anders; Scheibert, Julien

2014-05-01

To study how macroscopic friction phenomena originate from microscopic junction laws, we introduce a general statistical framework describing the collective behavior of a large number of individual microjunctions forming a macroscopic frictional interface. Each microjunction can switch in time between two states: a pinned state characterized by a displacement-dependent force and a slipping state characterized by a time-dependent force. Instead of tracking each microjunction individually, the state of the interface is described by two coupled distributions for (i) the stretching of pinned junctions and (ii) the time spent in the slipping state. This framework allows for a whole family of microjunction behavior laws, and we show how it represents an overarching structure for many existing models found in the friction literature. We then use this framework to pinpoint the effects of the time scale that controls the duration of the slipping state. First, we show that the model reproduces a series of friction phenomena already observed experimentally. The macroscopic steady-state friction force is velocity dependent, either monotonic (strengthening or weakening) or nonmonotonic (weakening-strengthening), depending on the microscopic behavior of individual junctions. In addition, slow slip, which has been reported in a wide variety of systems, spontaneously occurs in the model if the friction contribution from junctions in the slipping state is time weakening. Next, we show that the model predicts a nontrivial history dependence of the macroscopic static friction force. In particular, the static friction coefficient at the onset of sliding is shown to increase with increasing deceleration during the final phases of the preceding sliding event. We suggest that this form of history dependence of static friction should be investigated in experiments, and we provide the acceleration range in which this effect is expected to be experimentally observable.

Product plots.

PubMed

Wickham, Hadley; Hofmann, Heike

2011-12-01

We propose a new framework for visualising tables of counts, proportions and probabilities. We call our framework product plots, alluding to the computation of area as a product of height and width, and the statistical concept of generating a joint distribution from the product of conditional and marginal distributions. The framework, with extensions, is sufficient to encompass over 20 visualisations previously described in fields of statistical graphics and infovis, including bar charts, mosaic plots, treemaps, equal area plots and fluctuation diagrams. © 2011 IEEE

Framework for Evaluating Water Quality of the New England Crystalline Rock Aquifers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harte, Philip T.; Robinson, Gilpin R.; Ayotte, Joseph D.; Flanagan, Sarah M.

2008-01-01

Little information exists on regional ground-water-quality patterns for the New England crystalline rock aquifers (NECRA). A systematic approach to facilitate regional evaluation is needed for several reasons. First, the NECRA are vulnerable to anthropogenic and natural contaminants such as methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE), arsenic, and radon gas. Second, the physical characteristics of the aquifers, termed 'intrinsic susceptibility', can lead to variable and degraded water quality. A framework approach for characterizing the aquifer region into areas of similar hydrogeology is described in this report and is based on hypothesized relevant physical features and chemical conditions (collectively termed 'variables') that affect regional patterns of ground-water quality. A framework for comparison of water quality across the NECRA consists of a group of spatial variables related to aquifer properties, hydrologic conditions, and contaminant sources. These spatial variables are grouped under four general categories (features) that can be mapped across the aquifers: (1) geologic, (2) hydrophysiographic, (3) land-use land-cover, and (4) geochemical. On a regional scale, these variables represent indicators of natural and anthropogenic sources of contaminants, as well as generalized physical and chemical characteristics of the aquifer system that influence ground-water chemistry and flow. These variables can be used in varying combinations (depending on the contaminant) to categorize the aquifer into areas of similar hydrogeologic characteristics to evaluate variation in regional water quality through statistical testing.

A voting-based statistical cylinder detection framework applied to fallen tree mapping in terrestrial laser scanning point clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polewski, Przemyslaw; Yao, Wei; Heurich, Marco; Krzystek, Peter; Stilla, Uwe

2017-07-01

This paper introduces a statistical framework for detecting cylindrical shapes in dense point clouds. We target the application of mapping fallen trees in datasets obtained through terrestrial laser scanning. This is a challenging task due to the presence of ground vegetation, standing trees, DTM artifacts, as well as the fragmentation of dead trees into non-collinear segments. Our method shares the concept of voting in parameter space with the generalized Hough transform, however two of its significant drawbacks are improved upon. First, the need to generate samples on the shape's surface is eliminated. Instead, pairs of nearby input points lying on the surface cast a vote for the cylinder's parameters based on the intrinsic geometric properties of cylindrical shapes. Second, no discretization of the parameter space is required: the voting is carried out in continuous space by means of constructing a kernel density estimator and obtaining its local maxima, using automatic, data-driven kernel bandwidth selection. Furthermore, we show how the detected cylindrical primitives can be efficiently merged to obtain object-level (entire tree) semantic information using graph-cut segmentation and a tailored dynamic algorithm for eliminating cylinder redundancy. Experiments were performed on 3 plots from the Bavarian Forest National Park, with ground truth obtained through visual inspection of the point clouds. It was found that relative to sample consensus (SAC) cylinder fitting, the proposed voting framework can improve the detection completeness by up to 10 percentage points while maintaining the correctness rate.

Improving UWB-Based Localization in IoT Scenarios with Statistical Models of Distance Error.

PubMed

Monica, Stefania; Ferrari, Gianluigi

2018-05-17

Interest in the Internet of Things (IoT) is rapidly increasing, as the number of connected devices is exponentially growing. One of the application scenarios envisaged for IoT technologies involves indoor localization and context awareness. In this paper, we focus on a localization approach that relies on a particular type of communication technology, namely Ultra Wide Band (UWB). UWB technology is an attractive choice for indoor localization, owing to its high accuracy. Since localization algorithms typically rely on estimated inter-node distances, the goal of this paper is to evaluate the improvement brought by a simple (linear) statistical model of the distance error. On the basis of an extensive experimental measurement campaign, we propose a general analytical framework, based on a Least Square (LS) method, to derive a novel statistical model for the range estimation error between a pair of UWB nodes. The proposed statistical model is then applied to improve the performance of a few illustrative localization algorithms in various realistic scenarios. The obtained experimental results show that the use of the proposed statistical model improves the accuracy of the considered localization algorithms with a reduction of the localization error up to 66%.

Functional annotation of regulatory pathways.

PubMed

Pandey, Jayesh; Koyutürk, Mehmet; Kim, Yohan; Szpankowski, Wojciech; Subramaniam, Shankar; Grama, Ananth

2007-07-01

Standardized annotations of biomolecules in interaction networks (e.g. Gene Ontology) provide comprehensive understanding of the function of individual molecules. Extending such annotations to pathways is a critical component of functional characterization of cellular signaling at the systems level. We propose a framework for projecting gene regulatory networks onto the space of functional attributes using multigraph models, with the objective of deriving statistically significant pathway annotations. We first demonstrate that annotations of pairwise interactions do not generalize to indirect relationships between processes. Motivated by this result, we formalize the problem of identifying statistically overrepresented pathways of functional attributes. We establish the hardness of this problem by demonstrating the non-monotonicity of common statistical significance measures. We propose a statistical model that emphasizes the modularity of a pathway, evaluating its significance based on the coupling of its building blocks. We complement the statistical model by an efficient algorithm and software, Narada, for computing significant pathways in large regulatory networks. Comprehensive results from our methods applied to the Escherichia coli transcription network demonstrate that our approach is effective in identifying known, as well as novel biological pathway annotations. Narada is implemented in Java and is available at http://www.cs.purdue.edu/homes/jpandey/narada/.

SOCR Analyses - an Instructional Java Web-based Statistical Analysis Toolkit.

PubMed

Chu, Annie; Cui, Jenny; Dinov, Ivo D

2009-03-01

The Statistical Online Computational Resource (SOCR) designs web-based tools for educational use in a variety of undergraduate courses (Dinov 2006). Several studies have demonstrated that these resources significantly improve students' motivation and learning experiences (Dinov et al. 2008). SOCR Analyses is a new component that concentrates on data modeling and analysis using parametric and non-parametric techniques supported with graphical model diagnostics. Currently implemented analyses include commonly used models in undergraduate statistics courses like linear models (Simple Linear Regression, Multiple Linear Regression, One-Way and Two-Way ANOVA). In addition, we implemented tests for sample comparisons, such as t-test in the parametric category; and Wilcoxon rank sum test, Kruskal-Wallis test, Friedman's test, in the non-parametric category. SOCR Analyses also include several hypothesis test models, such as Contingency tables, Friedman's test and Fisher's exact test.The code itself is open source (http://socr.googlecode.com/), hoping to contribute to the efforts of the statistical computing community. The code includes functionality for each specific analysis model and it has general utilities that can be applied in various statistical computing tasks. For example, concrete methods with API (Application Programming Interface) have been implemented in statistical summary, least square solutions of general linear models, rank calculations, etc. HTML interfaces, tutorials, source code, activities, and data are freely available via the web (www.SOCR.ucla.edu). Code examples for developers and demos for educators are provided on the SOCR Wiki website.In this article, the pedagogical utilization of the SOCR Analyses is discussed, as well as the underlying design framework. As the SOCR project is on-going and more functions and tools are being added to it, these resources are constantly improved. The reader is strongly encouraged to check the SOCR site for most updated information and newly added models.

Markov Logic Networks in the Analysis of Genetic Data

PubMed Central

Sakhanenko, Nikita A.

2010-01-01

Abstract Complex, non-additive genetic interactions are common and can be critical in determining phenotypes. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and similar statistical studies of linkage data, however, assume additive models of gene interactions in looking for genotype-phenotype associations. These statistical methods view the compound effects of multiple genes on a phenotype as a sum of influences of each gene and often miss a substantial part of the heritable effect. Such methods do not use any biological knowledge about underlying mechanisms. Modeling approaches from the artificial intelligence (AI) field that incorporate deterministic knowledge into models to perform statistical analysis can be applied to include prior knowledge in genetic analysis. We chose to use the most general such approach, Markov Logic Networks (MLNs), for combining deterministic knowledge with statistical analysis. Using simple, logistic regression-type MLNs we can replicate the results of traditional statistical methods, but we also show that we are able to go beyond finding independent markers linked to a phenotype by using joint inference without an independence assumption. The method is applied to genetic data on yeast sporulation, a complex phenotype with gene interactions. In addition to detecting all of the previously identified loci associated with sporulation, our method identifies four loci with smaller effects. Since their effect on sporulation is small, these four loci were not detected with methods that do not account for dependence between markers due to gene interactions. We show how gene interactions can be detected using more complex models, which can be used as a general framework for incorporating systems biology with genetics. PMID:20958249

Evidence of the non-extensive character of Earth's ambient noise.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutalonis, Ioannis; Vallianatos, Filippos

2017-04-01

Investigation of dynamical features of ambient seismic noise is one of the important scientific and practical research challenges. In the same time there isgrowing interest concerning an approach to study Earth Physics based on thescience of complex systems and non extensive statistical mechanics which is a generalization of Boltzmann-Gibbs statistical physics (Vallianatos et al., 2016).This seems to be a promising framework for studying complex systems exhibitingphenomena such as, long-range interactions, and memory effects. Inthis work we use non-extensive statistical mechanics and signal analysis methodsto explore the nature of ambient noise as measured in the stations of the HSNC in South Aegean (Chatzopoulos et al., 2016). In the present work we analyzed the de-trended increments time series of ambient seismic noise X(t), in time windows of 20 minutes to 10 seconds within "calm time zones" where the human-induced noise presents a minimum. Following the non extensive statistical physics approach, the probability distribution function of the increments of ambient noise is investigated. Analyzing the probability density function (PDF)p(X), normalized to zero mean and unit varianceresults that the fluctuations of Earth's ambient noise follows a q-Gaussian distribution asdefined in the frame of non-extensive statisticalmechanics indicated the possible existence of memory effects in Earth's ambient noise. References: F. Vallianatos, G. Papadakis, G. Michas, Generalized statistical mechanics approaches to earthquakes and tectonics. Proc. R. Soc. A, 472, 20160497, 2016. G. Chatzopoulos, I.Papadopoulos, F.Vallianatos, The Hellenic Seismological Network of Crete (HSNC): Validation and results of the 2013 aftershock,Advances in Geosciences, 41, 65-72, 2016.

The distribution of density in supersonic turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Squire, Jonathan; Hopkins, Philip F.

2017-11-01

We propose a model for the statistics of the mass density in supersonic turbulence, which plays a crucial role in star formation and the physics of the interstellar medium (ISM). The model is derived by considering the density to be arranged as a collection of strong shocks of width ˜ M^{-2}, where M is the turbulent Mach number. With two physically motivated parameters, the model predicts all density statistics for M>1 turbulence: the density probability distribution and its intermittency (deviation from lognormality), the density variance-Mach number relation, power spectra and structure functions. For the proposed model parameters, reasonable agreement is seen between model predictions and numerical simulations, albeit within the large uncertainties associated with current simulation results. More generally, the model could provide a useful framework for more detailed analysis of future simulations and observational data. Due to the simple physical motivations for the model in terms of shocks, it is straightforward to generalize to more complex physical processes, which will be helpful in future more detailed applications to the ISM. We see good qualitative agreement between such extensions and recent simulations of non-isothermal turbulence.

Parameter estimation for the 4-parameter Asymmetric Exponential Power distribution by the method of L-moments using R

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.

2014-01-01

The implementation characteristics of two method of L-moments (MLM) algorithms for parameter estimation of the 4-parameter Asymmetric Exponential Power (AEP4) distribution are studied using the R environment for statistical computing. The objective is to validate the algorithms for general application of the AEP4 using R. An algorithm was introduced in the original study of the L-moments for the AEP4. A second or alternative algorithm is shown to have a larger L-moment-parameter domain than the original. The alternative algorithm is shown to provide reliable parameter production and recovery of L-moments from fitted parameters. A proposal is made for AEP4 implementation in conjunction with the 4-parameter Kappa distribution to create a mixed-distribution framework encompassing the joint L-skew and L-kurtosis domains. The example application provides a demonstration of pertinent algorithms with L-moment statistics and two 4-parameter distributions (AEP4 and the Generalized Lambda) for MLM fitting to a modestly asymmetric and heavy-tailed dataset using R.

Non-extensive Statistics to the Cosmological Lithium Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, S. Q.; He, J. J.; Parikh, A.; Kahl, D.; Bertulani, C. A.; Kajino, T.; Mathews, G. J.; Zhao, G.

2017-01-01

Big Bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) theory predicts the abundances of the light elements D, 3He, 4He, and 7Li produced in the early universe. The primordial abundances of D and 4He inferred from observational data are in good agreement with predictions, however, BBN theory overestimates the primordial 7Li abundance by about a factor of three. This is the so-called “cosmological lithium problem.” Solutions to this problem using conventional astrophysics and nuclear physics have not been successful over the past few decades, probably indicating the presence of new physics during the era of BBN. We have investigated the impact on BBN predictions of adopting a generalized distribution to describe the velocities of nucleons in the framework of Tsallis non-extensive statistics. This generalized velocity distribution is characterized by a parameter q, and reduces to the usually assumed Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution for q = 1. We find excellent agreement between predicted and observed primordial abundances of D, 4He, and 7Li for 1.069 ≤ q ≤ 1.082, suggesting a possible new solution to the cosmological lithium problem.

Inferring the Mode of Selection from the Transient Response to Demographic Perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balick, Daniel; Do, Ron; Reich, David; Sunyaev, Shamil

2014-03-01

Despite substantial recent progress in theoretical population genetics, most models work under the assumption of a constant population size. Deviations from fixed population sizes are ubiquitous in natural populations, many of which experience population bottlenecks and re-expansions. The non-equilibrium dynamics introduced by a large perturbation in population size are generally viewed as a confounding factor. In the present work, we take advantage of the transient response to a population bottleneck to infer features of the mode of selection and the distribution of selective effects. We develop an analytic framework and a corresponding statistical test that qualitatively differentiates between alleles under additive and those under recessive or more general epistatic selection. This statistic can be used to bound the joint distribution of selective effects and dominance effects in any diploid sexual organism. We apply this technique to human population genetic data, and severely restrict the space of allowed selective coefficients in humans. Additionally, one can test a set of functionally or medically relevant alleles for the primary mode of selection, or determine the local regional variation in dominance coefficients along the genome.

Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium - Part 1: Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sundberg, R.; Moberg, A.; Hind, A.

2012-08-01

A statistical framework for comparing the output of ensemble simulations from global climate models with networks of climate proxy and instrumental records has been developed, focusing on near-surface temperatures for the last millennium. This framework includes the formulation of a joint statistical model for proxy data, instrumental data and simulation data, which is used to optimize a quadratic distance measure for ranking climate model simulations. An essential underlying assumption is that the simulations and the proxy/instrumental series have a shared component of variability that is due to temporal changes in external forcing, such as volcanic aerosol load, solar irradiance or greenhouse gas concentrations. Two statistical tests have been formulated. Firstly, a preliminary test establishes whether a significant temporal correlation exists between instrumental/proxy and simulation data. Secondly, the distance measure is expressed in the form of a test statistic of whether a forced simulation is closer to the instrumental/proxy series than unforced simulations. The proposed framework allows any number of proxy locations to be used jointly, with different seasons, record lengths and statistical precision. The goal is to objectively rank several competing climate model simulations (e.g. with alternative model parameterizations or alternative forcing histories) by means of their goodness of fit to the unobservable true past climate variations, as estimated from noisy proxy data and instrumental observations.

Improved analyses using function datasets and statistical modeling

Treesearch

John S. Hogland; Nathaniel M. Anderson

2014-01-01

Raster modeling is an integral component of spatial analysis. However, conventional raster modeling techniques can require a substantial amount of processing time and storage space and have limited statistical functionality and machine learning algorithms. To address this issue, we developed a new modeling framework using C# and ArcObjects and integrated that framework...

How Does Teacher Knowledge in Statistics Impact on Teacher Listening?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burgess, Tim

2012-01-01

For teaching statistics investigations at primary school level, teacher knowledge has been identified using a framework developed from a classroom based study. Through development of the framework, three types of teacher listening problems were identified, each of which had potential impact on the students' learning. The three types of problems…

Accurate landmarking of three-dimensional facial data in the presence of facial expressions and occlusions using a three-dimensional statistical facial feature model.

PubMed

Zhao, Xi; Dellandréa, Emmanuel; Chen, Liming; Kakadiaris, Ioannis A

2011-10-01

Three-dimensional face landmarking aims at automatically localizing facial landmarks and has a wide range of applications (e.g., face recognition, face tracking, and facial expression analysis). Existing methods assume neutral facial expressions and unoccluded faces. In this paper, we propose a general learning-based framework for reliable landmark localization on 3-D facial data under challenging conditions (i.e., facial expressions and occlusions). Our approach relies on a statistical model, called 3-D statistical facial feature model, which learns both the global variations in configurational relationships between landmarks and the local variations of texture and geometry around each landmark. Based on this model, we further propose an occlusion classifier and a fitting algorithm. Results from experiments on three publicly available 3-D face databases (FRGC, BU-3-DFE, and Bosphorus) demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, in terms of landmarking accuracy and robustness, in the presence of expressions and occlusions.

Hybrid regulatory models: a statistically tractable approach to model regulatory network dynamics.

PubMed

Ocone, Andrea; Millar, Andrew J; Sanguinetti, Guido

2013-04-01

Computational modelling of the dynamics of gene regulatory networks is a central task of systems biology. For networks of small/medium scale, the dominant paradigm is represented by systems of coupled non-linear ordinary differential equations (ODEs). ODEs afford great mechanistic detail and flexibility, but calibrating these models to data is often an extremely difficult statistical problem. Here, we develop a general statistical inference framework for stochastic transcription-translation networks. We use a coarse-grained approach, which represents the system as a network of stochastic (binary) promoter and (continuous) protein variables. We derive an exact inference algorithm and an efficient variational approximation that allows scalable inference and learning of the model parameters. We demonstrate the power of the approach on two biological case studies, showing that the method allows a high degree of flexibility and is capable of testable novel biological predictions. http://homepages.inf.ed.ac.uk/gsanguin/software.html. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Flow Equation Approach to the Statistics of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marston, J. B.; Hastings, M. B.

2005-03-01

The probability distribution function of non-linear dynamical systems is governed by a linear framework that resembles quantum many-body theory, in which stochastic forcing and/or averaging over initial conditions play the role of non-zero . Besides the well-known Fokker-Planck approach, there is a related Hopf functional methodootnotetextUriel Frisch, Turbulence: The Legacy of A. N. Kolmogorov (Cambridge University Press, 1995) chapter 9.5.; in both formalisms, zero modes of linear operators describe the stationary non-equilibrium statistics. To access the statistics, we investigate the method of continuous unitary transformationsootnotetextS. D. Glazek and K. G. Wilson, Phys. Rev. D 48, 5863 (1993); Phys. Rev. D 49, 4214 (1994). (also known as the flow equation approachootnotetextF. Wegner, Ann. Phys. 3, 77 (1994).), suitably generalized to the diagonalization of non-Hermitian matrices. Comparison to the more traditional cumulant expansion method is illustrated with low-dimensional attractors. The treatment of high-dimensional dynamical systems is also discussed.

A Flexible Approach for the Statistical Visualization of Ensemble Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Potter, K.; Wilson, A.; Bremer, P.

2009-09-29

Scientists are increasingly moving towards ensemble data sets to explore relationships present in dynamic systems. Ensemble data sets combine spatio-temporal simulation results generated using multiple numerical models, sampled input conditions and perturbed parameters. While ensemble data sets are a powerful tool for mitigating uncertainty, they pose significant visualization and analysis challenges due to their complexity. We present a collection of overview and statistical displays linked through a high level of interactivity to provide a framework for gaining key scientific insight into the distribution of the simulation results as well as the uncertainty associated with the data. In contrast to methodsmore » that present large amounts of diverse information in a single display, we argue that combining multiple linked statistical displays yields a clearer presentation of the data and facilitates a greater level of visual data analysis. We demonstrate this approach using driving problems from climate modeling and meteorology and discuss generalizations to other fields.« less

Distinguishing Mediational Models and Analyses in Clinical Psychology: Atemporal Associations Do Not Imply Causation.

PubMed

Winer, E Samuel; Cervone, Daniel; Bryant, Jessica; McKinney, Cliff; Liu, Richard T; Nadorff, Michael R

2016-09-01

A popular way to attempt to discern causality in clinical psychology is through mediation analysis. However, mediation analysis is sometimes applied to research questions in clinical psychology when inferring causality is impossible. This practice may soon increase with new, readily available, and easy-to-use statistical advances. Thus, we here provide a heuristic to remind clinical psychological scientists of the assumptions of mediation analyses. We describe recent statistical advances and unpack assumptions of causality in mediation, underscoring the importance of time in understanding mediational hypotheses and analyses in clinical psychology. Example analyses demonstrate that statistical mediation can occur despite theoretical mediation being improbable. We propose a delineation of mediational effects derived from cross-sectional designs into the terms temporal and atemporal associations to emphasize time in conceptualizing process models in clinical psychology. The general implications for mediational hypotheses and the temporal frameworks from within which they may be drawn are discussed. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effect of geometry on deformation of anterior implant-supported zirconia frameworks: An in vitro study using digital image correlation.

PubMed

Calha, Nuno; Messias, Ana; Guerra, Fernando; Martinho, Beatriz; Neto, Maria Augusta; Nicolau, Pedro

2017-04-01

To evaluate the effect of geometry on the displacement and the strain distribution of anterior implant-supported zirconia frameworks under static load using the 3D digital image correlation method. Two groups (n=5) of 4-unit zirconia frameworks were produced by CAD/CAM for the implant-abutment assembly. Group 1 comprised five straight configuration frameworks and group 2 consisted of five curved configuration frameworks. Specimens were cemented and submitted to static load up to 200N. Displacements were captured with two high-speed photographic cameras and analyzed with video correlation system in three spacial axes U, V, W. Statistical analysis was made using the nonparametric Mann-Whitney test. Up to 150N loads, the vertical displacements (V axis) were statistically higher for curved frameworks (-267.83±23.76μm), when compared to the straight frameworks (-120.73±36.17μm) (p=0.008), as well as anterior displacements in the W transformed axis (589.55±64.51μm vs 224.29±50.38μm for the curved and straight frameworks), respectively (p=0.008). The mean von Mises strains over the surface frameworks were statistically higher for the curved frameworks under any load. Within the limitations of this in vitro study, it is possible to conclude that the geometric configuration influences the deformation of 4-unit anterior frameworks under static load. The higher strain distribution and micro-movements of the curved frameworks reflect less rigidity and increased risk of fractures associated to FPDs. Copyright © 2016 Japan Prosthodontic Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Flavoured tobacco products and the public's health: lessons from the TPSAC menthol report.

PubMed

Samet, Jonathan M; Pentz, Mary Ann; Unger, Jennifer B

2016-11-01

The menthol report developed by the Tobacco Products Scientific Advisory Committee (TPSAC) of the Center for Tobacco Products elaborated a methodology for considering the public health impact of menthol in cigarettes that has relevance to flavourings generally. The TPSAC report was based on a conceptual framework on how menthol in cigarettes has public health impact results of evidence from related systematic reviews, and an evidence-based statistical model. In extending this approach to flavourings generally, consideration will need to be given to the existence of multiple flavourings, a very dynamic market place and regulatory interventions and industry activities. Now is the time to begin to develop the research strategies and models needed to extend the TPSAC approach to flavoured tobacco products generally. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

HYPOTHESIS SETTING AND ORDER STATISTIC FOR ROBUST GENOMIC META-ANALYSIS.

PubMed

Song, Chi; Tseng, George C

2014-01-01

Meta-analysis techniques have been widely developed and applied in genomic applications, especially for combining multiple transcriptomic studies. In this paper, we propose an order statistic of p-values ( r th ordered p-value, rOP) across combined studies as the test statistic. We illustrate different hypothesis settings that detect gene markers differentially expressed (DE) "in all studies", "in the majority of studies", or "in one or more studies", and specify rOP as a suitable method for detecting DE genes "in the majority of studies". We develop methods to estimate the parameter r in rOP for real applications. Statistical properties such as its asymptotic behavior and a one-sided testing correction for detecting markers of concordant expression changes are explored. Power calculation and simulation show better performance of rOP compared to classical Fisher's method, Stouffer's method, minimum p-value method and maximum p-value method under the focused hypothesis setting. Theoretically, rOP is found connected to the naïve vote counting method and can be viewed as a generalized form of vote counting with better statistical properties. The method is applied to three microarray meta-analysis examples including major depressive disorder, brain cancer and diabetes. The results demonstrate rOP as a more generalizable, robust and sensitive statistical framework to detect disease-related markers.

A statistical shape model of the human second cervical vertebra.

PubMed

Clogenson, Marine; Duff, John M; Luethi, Marcel; Levivier, Marc; Meuli, Reto; Baur, Charles; Henein, Simon

2015-07-01

Statistical shape and appearance models play an important role in reducing the segmentation processing time of a vertebra and in improving results for 3D model development. Here, we describe the different steps in generating a statistical shape model (SSM) of the second cervical vertebra (C2) and provide the shape model for general use by the scientific community. The main difficulties in its construction are the morphological complexity of the C2 and its variability in the population. The input dataset is composed of manually segmented anonymized patient computerized tomography (CT) scans. The alignment of the different datasets is done with the procrustes alignment on surface models, and then, the registration is cast as a model-fitting problem using a Gaussian process. A principal component analysis (PCA)-based model is generated which includes the variability of the C2. The SSM was generated using 92 CT scans. The resulting SSM was evaluated for specificity, compactness and generalization ability. The SSM of the C2 is freely available to the scientific community in Slicer (an open source software for image analysis and scientific visualization) with a module created to visualize the SSM using Statismo, a framework for statistical shape modeling. The SSM of the vertebra allows the shape variability of the C2 to be represented. Moreover, the SSM will enable semi-automatic segmentation and 3D model generation of the vertebra, which would greatly benefit surgery planning.

Markov modulated Poisson process models incorporating covariates for rainfall intensity.

PubMed

Thayakaran, R; Ramesh, N I

2013-01-01

Time series of rainfall bucket tip times at the Beaufort Park station, Bracknell, in the UK are modelled by a class of Markov modulated Poisson processes (MMPP) which may be thought of as a generalization of the Poisson process. Our main focus in this paper is to investigate the effects of including covariate information into the MMPP model framework on statistical properties. In particular, we look at three types of time-varying covariates namely temperature, sea level pressure, and relative humidity that are thought to be affecting the rainfall arrival process. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to obtain the parameter estimates, and likelihood ratio tests are employed in model comparison. Simulated data from the fitted model are used to make statistical inferences about the accumulated rainfall in the discrete time interval. Variability of the daily Poisson arrival rates is studied.

An Evaluation of the Generalized Intelligent Framework for Tutoring (GIFT) from a Researcher’s or Analyst’s Perspective

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-12-01

An Evaluation of the Generalized Intelligent Framework for Tutoring (GIFT) from a Researcher’s or Analyst’s Perspective by Robert A...Generalized Intelligent Framework for Tutoring (GIFT) from a Researcher’s or Analyst’s Perspective Robert A Sottilare and Anne M Sinatra Human...2014 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE An Evaluation of the Generalized Intelligent Framework for Tutoring (GIFT) from a Researcher’s or Analyst’s Perspective

Automatic classification of animal vocalizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clemins, Patrick J.

2005-11-01

Bioacoustics, the study of animal vocalizations, has begun to use increasingly sophisticated analysis techniques in recent years. Some common tasks in bioacoustics are repertoire determination, call detection, individual identification, stress detection, and behavior correlation. Each research study, however, uses a wide variety of different measured variables, called features, and classification systems to accomplish these tasks. The well-established field of human speech processing has developed a number of different techniques to perform many of the aforementioned bioacoustics tasks. Melfrequency cepstral coefficients (MFCCs) and perceptual linear prediction (PLP) coefficients are two popular feature sets. The hidden Markov model (HMM), a statistical model similar to a finite autonoma machine, is the most commonly used supervised classification model and is capable of modeling both temporal and spectral variations. This research designs a framework that applies models from human speech processing for bioacoustic analysis tasks. The development of the generalized perceptual linear prediction (gPLP) feature extraction model is one of the more important novel contributions of the framework. Perceptual information from the species under study can be incorporated into the gPLP feature extraction model to represent the vocalizations as the animals might perceive them. By including this perceptual information and modifying parameters of the HMM classification system, this framework can be applied to a wide range of species. The effectiveness of the framework is shown by analyzing African elephant and beluga whale vocalizations. The features extracted from the African elephant data are used as input to a supervised classification system and compared to results from traditional statistical tests. The gPLP features extracted from the beluga whale data are used in an unsupervised classification system and the results are compared to labels assigned by experts. The development of a framework from which to build animal vocalization classifiers will provide bioacoustics researchers with a consistent platform to analyze and classify vocalizations. A common framework will also allow studies to compare results across species and institutions. In addition, the use of automated classification techniques can speed analysis and uncover behavioral correlations not readily apparent using traditional techniques.

QTest: Quantitative Testing of Theories of Binary Choice.

PubMed

Regenwetter, Michel; Davis-Stober, Clintin P; Lim, Shiau Hong; Guo, Ying; Popova, Anna; Zwilling, Chris; Cha, Yun-Shil; Messner, William

2014-01-01

The goal of this paper is to make modeling and quantitative testing accessible to behavioral decision researchers interested in substantive questions. We provide a novel, rigorous, yet very general, quantitative diagnostic framework for testing theories of binary choice. This permits the nontechnical scholar to proceed far beyond traditionally rather superficial methods of analysis, and it permits the quantitatively savvy scholar to triage theoretical proposals before investing effort into complex and specialized quantitative analyses. Our theoretical framework links static algebraic decision theory with observed variability in behavioral binary choice data. The paper is supplemented with a custom-designed public-domain statistical analysis package, the QTest software. We illustrate our approach with a quantitative analysis using published laboratory data, including tests of novel versions of "Random Cumulative Prospect Theory." A major asset of the approach is the potential to distinguish decision makers who have a fixed preference and commit errors in observed choices from decision makers who waver in their preferences.

Bayesian Group Bridge for Bi-level Variable Selection.

PubMed

Mallick, Himel; Yi, Nengjun

2017-06-01

A Bayesian bi-level variable selection method (BAGB: Bayesian Analysis of Group Bridge) is developed for regularized regression and classification. This new development is motivated by grouped data, where generic variables can be divided into multiple groups, with variables in the same group being mechanistically related or statistically correlated. As an alternative to frequentist group variable selection methods, BAGB incorporates structural information among predictors through a group-wise shrinkage prior. Posterior computation proceeds via an efficient MCMC algorithm. In addition to the usual ease-of-interpretation of hierarchical linear models, the Bayesian formulation produces valid standard errors, a feature that is notably absent in the frequentist framework. Empirical evidence of the attractiveness of the method is illustrated by extensive Monte Carlo simulations and real data analysis. Finally, several extensions of this new approach are presented, providing a unified framework for bi-level variable selection in general models with flexible penalties.

An Uncertainty Quantification Framework for Remote Sensing Retrievals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braverman, A. J.; Hobbs, J.

2017-12-01

Remote sensing data sets produced by NASA and other space agencies are the result of complex algorithms that infer geophysical state from observed radiances using retrieval algorithms. The processing must keep up with the downlinked data flow, and this necessitates computational compromises that affect the accuracies of retrieved estimates. The algorithms are also limited by imperfect knowledge of physics and of ancillary inputs that are required. All of this contributes to uncertainties that are generally not rigorously quantified by stepping outside the assumptions that underlie the retrieval methodology. In this talk we discuss a practical framework for uncertainty quantification that can be applied to a variety of remote sensing retrieval algorithms. Ours is a statistical approach that uses Monte Carlo simulation to approximate the sampling distribution of the retrieved estimates. We will discuss the strengths and weaknesses of this approach, and provide a case-study example from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 mission.

Quasi-local holographic dualities in non-perturbative 3D quantum gravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dittrich, Bianca; Goeller, Christophe; Livine, Etera R.; Riello, Aldo

2018-07-01

We present a line of research aimed at investigating holographic dualities in the context of three dimensional quantum gravity within finite bounded regions. The bulk quantum geometrodynamics is provided by the Ponzano–Regge state-sum model, which defines 3D quantum gravity as a discrete topological quantum field theory (TQFT). This formulation provides an explicit and detailed definition of the quantum boundary states, which allows a rich correspondence between quantum boundary conditions and boundary theories, thereby leading to holographic dualities between 3D quantum gravity and 2D statistical models as used in condensed matter. After presenting the general framework, we focus on the concrete example of the coherent twisted torus boundary, which allows for a direct comparison with other approaches to 3D/2D holography at asymptotic infinity. We conclude with the most interesting questions to pursue in this framework.

Supervised Learning for Dynamical System Learning.

PubMed

Hefny, Ahmed; Downey, Carlton; Gordon, Geoffrey J

2015-01-01

Recently there has been substantial interest in spectral methods for learning dynamical systems. These methods are popular since they often offer a good tradeoff between computational and statistical efficiency. Unfortunately, they can be difficult to use and extend in practice: e.g., they can make it difficult to incorporate prior information such as sparsity or structure. To address this problem, we present a new view of dynamical system learning: we show how to learn dynamical systems by solving a sequence of ordinary supervised learning problems, thereby allowing users to incorporate prior knowledge via standard techniques such as L 1 regularization. Many existing spectral methods are special cases of this new framework, using linear regression as the supervised learner. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework by showing examples where nonlinear regression or lasso let us learn better state representations than plain linear regression does; the correctness of these instances follows directly from our general analysis.

A framework for risk assessment and decision-making strategies in dangerous good transportation.

PubMed

Fabiano, B; Currò, F; Palazzi, E; Pastorino, R

2002-07-01

The risk from dangerous goods transport by road and strategies for selecting road load/routes are faced in this paper, by developing an original site-oriented framework of general applicability at local level. A realistic evaluation of the frequency must take into account on one side inherent factors (e.g. tunnels, rail bridges, bend radii, slope, characteristics of neighborhood, etc.) on the other side factors correlated to the traffic conditions (e.g. dangerous goods trucks, etc.). Field data were collected on the selected highway, by systematic investigation, providing input data for a database reporting tendencies and intrinsic parameter/site-oriented statistics. The developed technique was applied to a pilot area, considering both the individual risk and societal risk and making reference to flammable and explosive scenarios. In this way, a risk assessment, sensitive to route features and population exposed, is proposed, so that the overall uncertainties in risk analysis can be lowered.

Functional Path Analysis as a Multivariate Technique in Developing a Theory of Participation in Adult Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin, James L.

This paper reports on attempts by the author to construct a theoretical framework of adult education participation using a theory development process and the corresponding multivariate statistical techniques. Two problems are identified: the lack of theoretical framework in studying problems, and the limiting of statistical analysis to univariate…

Teaching Introductory Business Statistics Using the DCOVA Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levine, David M.; Stephan, David F.

2011-01-01

Introductory business statistics students often receive little guidance on how to apply the methods they learn to further business objectives they may one day face. And those students may fail to see the continuity among the topics taught in an introductory course if they learn those methods outside a context that provides a unifying framework.…

The history of generalized anxiety disorder as a diagnostic category.

PubMed

Crocq, Marc-Antoine

2017-06-01

From the 19th century into the 20th century, the terms used to diagnose generalized anxiety included "pantophobia" and "anxiety neurosis." Such terms designated paroxysmal manifestations (panic attacks) as well as interparoxysmal phenomenology (the apprehensive mental state). Also, generalized anxiety was considered one of numerous symptoms of neurasthenia, a vaguely defined illness. Generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) appeared as a diagnostic category in the third edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders ( DSM-III ) in 1980, when anxiety neurosis was split into GAD and panic disorder. The distinct responses these two disorders had to imipramine therapy was one reason to distinguish between the two. Since the revised DSM-III ( DSM-III-R ), worry about a number of life circumstances has been gradually emphasized as the distinctive symptom of GAD. Thus, a cognitive aspect of anxiety has become the core criterion of GAD. The validity of GAD as an independent category has been questioned from DSM-III up to preparation of DSM-5 . Areas of concern have included the difficulty to establish clear boundaries between GAD and (i) personality dimensions, (ii) other anxiety-spectrum disorders, and (iii) nonbipolar depression. The National Institute of Mental Health has recently proposed the Research Domain Criteria (RDoC), a framework destined to facilitate biological research into the etiology of mental symptoms. Within the RDoC framework, generalized anxiety might be studied as a dimension denominated "anxious apprehension" that would typically fit into the research domain called "negative valence systems" and the more specific construct termed "potential threat."

The history of generalized anxiety disorder as a diagnostic category

PubMed Central

Crocq, Marc-Antoine

2017-01-01

From the 19th century into the 20th century, the terms used to diagnose generalized anxiety included “pantophobia” and “anxiety neurosis.” Such terms designated paroxysmal manifestations (panic attacks) as well as interparoxysmal phenomenology (the apprehensive mental state). Also, generalized anxiety was considered one of numerous symptoms of neurasthenia, a vaguely defined illness. Generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) appeared as a diagnostic category in the third edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-III) in 1980, when anxiety neurosis was split into GAD and panic disorder. The distinct responses these two disorders had to imipramine therapy was one reason to distinguish between the two. Since the revised DSM-III (DSM-III-R), worry about a number of life circumstances has been gradually emphasized as the distinctive symptom of GAD. Thus, a cognitive aspect of anxiety has become the core criterion of GAD. The validity of GAD as an independent category has been questioned from DSM-III up to preparation of DSM-5. Areas of concern have included the difficulty to establish clear boundaries between GAD and (i) personality dimensions, (ii) other anxiety-spectrum disorders, and (iii) nonbipolar depression. The National Institute of Mental Health has recently proposed the Research Domain Criteria (RDoC), a framework destined to facilitate biological research into the etiology of mental symptoms. Within the RDoC framework, generalized anxiety might be studied as a dimension denominated “anxious apprehension” that would typically fit into the research domain called “negative valence systems” and the more specific construct termed “potential threat.” PMID:28867935

A powerful approach for association analysis incorporating imprinting effects

PubMed Central

Xia, Fan; Zhou, Ji-Yuan; Fung, Wing Kam

2011-01-01

Motivation: For a diallelic marker locus, the transmission disequilibrium test (TDT) is a simple and powerful design for genetic studies. The TDT was originally proposed for use in families with both parents available (complete nuclear families) and has further been extended to 1-TDT for use in families with only one of the parents available (incomplete nuclear families). Currently, the increasing interest of the influence of parental imprinting on heritability indicates the importance of incorporating imprinting effects into the mapping of association variants. Results: In this article, we extend the TDT-type statistics to incorporate imprinting effects and develop a series of new test statistics in a general two-stage framework for association studies. Our test statistics enjoy the nature of family-based designs that need no assumption of Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium. Also, the proposed methods accommodate complete and incomplete nuclear families with one or more affected children. In the simulation study, we verify the validity of the proposed test statistics under various scenarios, and compare the powers of the proposed statistics with some existing test statistics. It is shown that our methods greatly improve the power for detecting association in the presence of imprinting effects. We further demonstrate the advantage of our methods by the application of the proposed test statistics to a rheumatoid arthritis dataset. Contact: wingfung@hku.hk Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:21798962

A powerful approach for association analysis incorporating imprinting effects.

PubMed

Xia, Fan; Zhou, Ji-Yuan; Fung, Wing Kam

2011-09-15

For a diallelic marker locus, the transmission disequilibrium test (TDT) is a simple and powerful design for genetic studies. The TDT was originally proposed for use in families with both parents available (complete nuclear families) and has further been extended to 1-TDT for use in families with only one of the parents available (incomplete nuclear families). Currently, the increasing interest of the influence of parental imprinting on heritability indicates the importance of incorporating imprinting effects into the mapping of association variants. In this article, we extend the TDT-type statistics to incorporate imprinting effects and develop a series of new test statistics in a general two-stage framework for association studies. Our test statistics enjoy the nature of family-based designs that need no assumption of Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Also, the proposed methods accommodate complete and incomplete nuclear families with one or more affected children. In the simulation study, we verify the validity of the proposed test statistics under various scenarios, and compare the powers of the proposed statistics with some existing test statistics. It is shown that our methods greatly improve the power for detecting association in the presence of imprinting effects. We further demonstrate the advantage of our methods by the application of the proposed test statistics to a rheumatoid arthritis dataset. wingfung@hku.hk Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Entropy of network ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bianconi, Ginestra

2009-03-01

In this paper we generalize the concept of random networks to describe network ensembles with nontrivial features by a statistical mechanics approach. This framework is able to describe undirected and directed network ensembles as well as weighted network ensembles. These networks might have nontrivial community structure or, in the case of networks embedded in a given space, they might have a link probability with a nontrivial dependence on the distance between the nodes. These ensembles are characterized by their entropy, which evaluates the cardinality of networks in the ensemble. In particular, in this paper we define and evaluate the structural entropy, i.e., the entropy of the ensembles of undirected uncorrelated simple networks with given degree sequence. We stress the apparent paradox that scale-free degree distributions are characterized by having small structural entropy while they are so widely encountered in natural, social, and technological complex systems. We propose a solution to the paradox by proving that scale-free degree distributions are the most likely degree distribution with the corresponding value of the structural entropy. Finally, the general framework we present in this paper is able to describe microcanonical ensembles of networks as well as canonical or hidden-variable network ensembles with significant implications for the formulation of network-constructing algorithms.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Del Pozzo, Walter; Nikhef National Institute for Subatomic Physics, Science Park 105, 1098 XG Amsterdam; Veitch, John

Second-generation interferometric gravitational-wave detectors, such as Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo, are expected to begin operation by 2015. Such instruments plan to reach sensitivities that will offer the unique possibility to test general relativity in the dynamical, strong-field regime and investigate departures from its predictions, in particular, using the signal from coalescing binary systems. We introduce a statistical framework based on Bayesian model selection in which the Bayes factor between two competing hypotheses measures which theory is favored by the data. Probability density functions of the model parameters are then used to quantify the inference on individual parameters. We alsomore » develop a method to combine the information coming from multiple independent observations of gravitational waves, and show how much stronger inference could be. As an introduction and illustration of this framework-and a practical numerical implementation through the Monte Carlo integration technique of nested sampling-we apply it to gravitational waves from the inspiral phase of coalescing binary systems as predicted by general relativity and a very simple alternative theory in which the graviton has a nonzero mass. This method can (and should) be extended to more realistic and physically motivated theories.« less

Quantification of causal couplings via dynamical effects: A unifying perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smirnov, Dmitry A.

2014-12-01

Quantitative characterization of causal couplings from time series is crucial in studies of complex systems of different origin. Various statistical tools for that exist and new ones are still being developed with a tendency to creating a single, universal, model-free quantifier of coupling strength. However, a clear and generally applicable way of interpreting such universal characteristics is lacking. This work suggests a general conceptual framework for causal coupling quantification, which is based on state space models and extends the concepts of virtual interventions and dynamical causal effects. Namely, two basic kinds of interventions (state space and parametric) and effects (orbital or transient and stationary or limit) are introduced, giving four families of coupling characteristics. The framework provides a unifying view of apparently different well-established measures and allows us to introduce new characteristics, always with a definite "intervention-effect" interpretation. It is shown that diverse characteristics cannot be reduced to any single coupling strength quantifier and their interpretation is inevitably model based. The proposed set of dynamical causal effect measures quantifies different aspects of "how the coupling manifests itself in the dynamics," reformulating the very question about the "causal coupling strength."

Children facing a family member's acute illness: a review of intervention studies.

PubMed

Spath, Mary L

2007-07-01

A review of psycho-educational intervention studies to benefit children adapting to a close (parent, sibling, or grandparent) family member's serious illness was conducted. To review the literature on studies addressing this topic, critique research methods, describe clinical outcomes, and make recommendations for future research efforts. Research citations from 1990 to 2005 from Medline, CINAHL, Health Source: Nursing/Academic Edition, PsycARTICLES, and PsycINFO databases were identified. Citations were reviewed and evaluated for sample, design, theoretical framework, intervention, threats to validity, and outcomes. Reviewed studies were limited to those that included statistical analysis to evaluate interventions and outcomes. Six studies were reviewed. Positive outcomes were reported for all of the interventional strategies used in the studies. Reviewed studies generally lacked a theoretical framework and a control group, were generally composed of small convenience samples, and primarily used non-tested investigator instruments. They were diverse in terms of intervention length and intensity, and measured short-term outcomes related to participant program satisfaction, rather than participant cognitive and behavioral change. The paucity of interventional studies and lack of systematic empirical precision to evaluate intervention effectiveness necessitates future studies that are methodologically rigorous.

Application of optimal data assimilation techniques in oceanography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, R.N.

Application of optimal data assimilation methods in oceanography is, if anything, more important than it is in numerical weather prediction, due to the sparsity of data. Here, a general framework is presented and practical examples taken from the author`s work are described, with the purpose of conveying to the reader some idea of the state of the art of data assimilation in oceanography. While no attempt is made to be exhaustive, references to other lines of research are included. Major challenges to the community include design of statistical error models and handling of strong nonlinearity.

Stochastic modelling of non-stationary financial assets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estevens, Joana; Rocha, Paulo; Boto, João P.; Lind, Pedro G.

2017-11-01

We model non-stationary volume-price distributions with a log-normal distribution and collect the time series of its two parameters. The time series of the two parameters are shown to be stationary and Markov-like and consequently can be modelled with Langevin equations, which are derived directly from their series of values. Having the evolution equations of the log-normal parameters, we reconstruct the statistics of the first moments of volume-price distributions which fit well the empirical data. Finally, the proposed framework is general enough to study other non-stationary stochastic variables in other research fields, namely, biology, medicine, and geology.

Resonance decay dynamics and their effects on pT spectra of pions in heavy-ion collisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, Pok Man

2018-03-01

The influence of resonance decay dynamics on the momentum spectra of pions in heavy-ion collisions is examined. Taking the decay processes ω →3 π and ρ →2 π as examples, I demonstrate how the resonance width and details of decay dynamics (via the decay matrix element) can modify the physical observables. The latter effect is commonly neglected in statistical models. To remedy the situation, a theoretical framework for incorporating hadron dynamics into the analysis is formulated, which can be straightforwardly extended to describe general N -body decays.

Quantum work statistics of charged Dirac particles in time-dependent fields

DOE PAGES

Deffner, Sebastian; Saxena, Avadh

2015-09-28

The quantum Jarzynski equality is an important theorem of modern quantum thermodynamics. We show that the Jarzynski equality readily generalizes to relativistic quantum mechanics described by the Dirac equation. After establishing the conceptual framework we solve a pedagogical, yet experimentally relevant, system analytically. As a main result we obtain the exact quantum work distributions for charged particles traveling through a time-dependent vector potential evolving under Schrödinger as well as under Dirac dynamics, and for which the Jarzynski equality is verified. Thus, special emphasis is put on the conceptual and technical subtleties arising from relativistic quantum mechanics.

PharmML in Action: an Interoperable Language for Modeling and Simulation.

PubMed

Bizzotto, R; Comets, E; Smith, G; Yvon, F; Kristensen, N R; Swat, M J

2017-10-01

PharmML is an XML-based exchange format created with a focus on nonlinear mixed-effect (NLME) models used in pharmacometrics, but providing a very general framework that also allows describing mathematical and statistical models such as single-subject or nonlinear and multivariate regression models. This tutorial provides an overview of the structure of this language, brief suggestions on how to work with it, and use cases demonstrating its power and flexibility. © 2017 The Authors CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Zonal flow as pattern formation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parker, Jeffrey B.; Krommes, John A.

2013-10-15

Zonal flows are well known to arise spontaneously out of turbulence. We show that for statistically averaged equations of the stochastically forced generalized Hasegawa-Mima model, steady-state zonal flows, and inhomogeneous turbulence fit into the framework of pattern formation. There are many implications. First, the wavelength of the zonal flows is not unique. Indeed, in an idealized, infinite system, any wavelength within a certain continuous band corresponds to a solution. Second, of these wavelengths, only those within a smaller subband are linearly stable. Unstable wavelengths must evolve to reach a stable wavelength; this process manifests as merging jets.

Assessing Fire Weather Index using statistical downscaling and spatial interpolation techniques in Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karali, Anna; Giannakopoulos, Christos; Frias, Maria Dolores; Hatzaki, Maria; Roussos, Anargyros; Casanueva, Ana

2013-04-01

Forest fires have always been present in the Mediterranean ecosystems, thus they constitute a major ecological and socio-economic issue. The last few decades though, the number of forest fires has significantly increased, as well as their severity and impact on the environment. Local fire danger projections are often required when dealing with wild fire research. In the present study the application of statistical downscaling and spatial interpolation methods was performed to the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), in order to assess forest fire risk in Greece. The FWI is used worldwide (including the Mediterranean basin) to estimate the fire danger in a generalized fuel type, based solely on weather observations. The meteorological inputs to the FWI System are noon values of dry-bulb temperature, air relative humidity, 10m wind speed and precipitation during the previous 24 hours. The statistical downscaling methods are based on a statistical model that takes into account empirical relationships between large scale variables (used as predictors) and local scale variables. In the framework of the current study the statistical downscaling portal developed by the Santander Meteorology Group (https://www.meteo.unican.es/downscaling) in the framework of the EU project CLIMRUN (www.climrun.eu) was used to downscale non standard parameters related to forest fire risk. In this study, two different approaches were adopted. Firstly, the analogue downscaling technique was directly performed to the FWI index values and secondly the same downscaling technique was performed indirectly through the meteorological inputs of the index. In both cases, the statistical downscaling portal was used considering the ERA-Interim reanalysis as predictands due to the lack of observations at noon. Additionally, a three-dimensional (3D) interpolation method of position and elevation, based on Thin Plate Splines (TPS) was used, to interpolate the ERA-Interim data used to calculate the index. Results from this method were compared with the statistical downscaling results obtained from the portal. Finally, FWI was computed using weather observations obtained from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service, mainly in the south continental part of Greece and a comparison with the previous results was performed.

Equilibrium Fluctuation Relations for Voltage Coupling in Membrane Proteins

PubMed Central

Kim, Ilsoo; Warshel, Arieh

2015-01-01

A general theoretical framework is developed to account for the effects of an external potential on the energetics of membrane proteins. The framework is based on the free energy relation between two (forward/backward) probability densities, which was recently generalized to non-equilibrium processes, culminating in the work-fluctuation theorem. Starting from the probability densities of the conformational states along the reaction coordinate of “voltage coupling”, we investigate several interconnected free energy relations between these two conformational states, considering voltage activation of ion channels. The free energy difference at zero membrane potential (i.e., between the two “non-equilibrium” conformational states) is shown to be equivalent to the free energy difference between the two “equilibrium” conformational states along the one-dimensional reaction coordinate of voltage coupling. Furthermore, the requirement that the application of linear response approximation to the free energy functions (free energies) of voltage coupling should satisfy the general free energy relations, yields a novel expression for the gating charge in terms of other experimentally measurable quantities. This connection is familiar in statistical mechanics, known as the equilibrium fluctuation-response relation. The theory is illustrated by considering the movement of a unit charge within the membrane under the influence of an external potential, using a coarse-graining (CG) model of membrane proteins, which includes the membrane, the electrolytes and the electrodes. The CG model yields Marcus–type voltage dependent free energy parabolas for the two conformational states, which allow for quantitative estimations of an equilibrium free energy difference, a free energy of barrier, and the voltage dependency of channel activation (Q-V curve) for the unit charge movement. In addition, our analysis offers a quantitative rationale for the correlation between the free energy landscapes (parabolas) and the Q-V curve, upon site-directed mutagenesis or drug binding. Taken together, by introducing the voltage coupling as a reaction coordinate of energy gab, the present theory offers a firm physical foundation from the equilibrium theory of statistical mechanics for the thermodynamic models of voltage activation in voltage-sensitive membrane proteins. This formulation also provides a powerful bridge between the CG model and the conventional macroscopic treatments, offering an intuitive and quantitative framework for a better understating of the structure-function correlations of voltage gating in ion channels as well as electrogenic phenomena in ion pumps and transporters. PMID:26290960

Reducing Anxiety and Increasing Self-Efficacy within an Advanced Graduate Psychology Statistics Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGrath, April L.; Ferns, Alyssa; Greiner, Leigh; Wanamaker, Kayla; Brown, Shelley

2015-01-01

In this study we assessed the usefulness of a multifaceted teaching framework in an advanced statistics course. We sought to expand on past findings by using this framework to assess changes in anxiety and self-efficacy, and we collected focus group data to ascertain whether students attribute such changes to a multifaceted teaching approach.…

Assessment of Surface Air Temperature over China Using Multi-criterion Model Ensemble Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Zhu, Q.; Su, L.; He, X.; Zhang, X.

2017-12-01

The General Circulation Models (GCMs) are designed to simulate the present climate and project future trends. It has been noticed that the performances of GCMs are not always in agreement with each other over different regions. Model ensemble techniques have been developed to post-process the GCMs' outputs and improve their prediction reliabilities. To evaluate the performances of GCMs, root-mean-square error, correlation coefficient, and uncertainty are commonly used statistical measures. However, the simultaneous achievements of these satisfactory statistics cannot be guaranteed when using many model ensemble techniques. Meanwhile, uncertainties and future scenarios are critical for Water-Energy management and operation. In this study, a new multi-model ensemble framework was proposed. It uses a state-of-art evolutionary multi-objective optimization algorithm, termed Multi-Objective Complex Evolution Global Optimization with Principle Component Analysis and Crowding Distance (MOSPD), to derive optimal GCM ensembles and demonstrate the trade-offs among various solutions. Such trade-off information was further analyzed with a robust Pareto front with respect to different statistical measures. A case study was conducted to optimize the surface air temperature (SAT) ensemble solutions over seven geographical regions of China for the historical period (1900-2005) and future projection (2006-2100). The results showed that the ensemble solutions derived with MOSPD algorithm are superior over the simple model average and any single model output during the historical simulation period. For the future prediction, the proposed ensemble framework identified that the largest SAT change would occur in the South Central China under RCP 2.6 scenario, North Eastern China under RCP 4.5 scenario, and North Western China under RCP 8.5 scenario, while the smallest SAT change would occur in the Inner Mongolia under RCP 2.6 scenario, South Central China under RCP 4.5 scenario, and South Central China under RCP 8.5 scenario.

Synthetic data sets for the identification of key ingredients for RNA-seq differential analysis.

PubMed

Rigaill, Guillem; Balzergue, Sandrine; Brunaud, Véronique; Blondet, Eddy; Rau, Andrea; Rogier, Odile; Caius, José; Maugis-Rabusseau, Cathy; Soubigou-Taconnat, Ludivine; Aubourg, Sébastien; Lurin, Claire; Martin-Magniette, Marie-Laure; Delannoy, Etienne

2018-01-01

Numerous statistical pipelines are now available for the differential analysis of gene expression measured with RNA-sequencing technology. Most of them are based on similar statistical frameworks after normalization, differing primarily in the choice of data distribution, mean and variance estimation strategy and data filtering. We propose an evaluation of the impact of these choices when few biological replicates are available through the use of synthetic data sets. This framework is based on real data sets and allows the exploration of various scenarios differing in the proportion of non-differentially expressed genes. Hence, it provides an evaluation of the key ingredients of the differential analysis, free of the biases associated with the simulation of data using parametric models. Our results show the relevance of a proper modeling of the mean by using linear or generalized linear modeling. Once the mean is properly modeled, the impact of the other parameters on the performance of the test is much less important. Finally, we propose to use the simple visualization of the raw P-value histogram as a practical evaluation criterion of the performance of differential analysis methods on real data sets. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Stability estimation of autoregulated genes under Michaelis-Menten-type kinetics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arani, Babak M. S.; Mahmoudi, Mahdi; Lahti, Leo; González, Javier; Wit, Ernst C.

2018-06-01

Feedback loops are typical motifs appearing in gene regulatory networks. In some well-studied model organisms, including Escherichia coli, autoregulated genes, i.e., genes that activate or repress themselves through their protein products, are the only feedback interactions. For these types of interactions, the Michaelis-Menten (MM) formulation is a suitable and widely used approach, which always leads to stable steady-state solutions representative of homeostatic regulation. However, in many other biological phenomena, such as cell differentiation, cancer progression, and catastrophes in ecosystems, one might expect to observe bistable switchlike dynamics in the case of strong positive autoregulation. To capture this complex behavior we use the generalized family of MM kinetic models. We give a full analysis regarding the stability of autoregulated genes. We show that the autoregulation mechanism has the capability to exhibit diverse cellular dynamics including hysteresis, a typical characteristic of bistable systems, as well as irreversible transitions between bistable states. We also introduce a statistical framework to estimate the kinetics parameters and probability of different stability regimes given observational data. Empirical data for the autoregulated gene SCO3217 in the SOS system in Streptomyces coelicolor are analyzed. The coupling of a statistical framework and the mathematical model can give further insight into understanding the evolutionary mechanisms toward different cell fates in various systems.

A Unified Framework Integrating Parent-of-Origin Effects for Association Study

PubMed Central

Xiao, Feifei; Ma, Jianzhong; Amos, Christopher I.

2013-01-01

Genetic imprinting is the most well-known cause for parent-of-origin effect (POE) whereby a gene is differentially expressed depending on the parental origin of the same alleles. Genetic imprinting is related to several human disorders, including diabetes, breast cancer, alcoholism, and obesity. This phenomenon has been shown to be important for normal embryonic development in mammals. Traditional association approaches ignore this important genetic phenomenon. In this study, we generalize the natural and orthogonal interactions (NOIA) framework to allow for estimation of both main allelic effects and POEs. We develop a statistical (Stat-POE) model that has the orthogonal estimates of parameters including the POEs. We conducted simulation studies for both quantitative and qualitative traits to evaluate the performance of the statistical and functional models with different levels of POEs. Our results showed that the newly proposed Stat-POE model, which ensures orthogonality of variance components if Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) or equal minor and major allele frequencies is satisfied, had greater power for detecting the main allelic additive effect than a Func-POE model, which codes according to allelic substitutions, for both quantitative and qualitative traits. The power for detecting the POE was the same for the Stat-POE and Func-POE models under HWE for quantitative traits. PMID:23991061

Statistical Physics of Complex Substitutive Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Qing

Diffusion processes are central to human interactions. Despite extensive studies that span multiple disciplines, our knowledge is limited to spreading processes in non-substitutive systems. Yet, a considerable number of ideas, products, and behaviors spread by substitution; to adopt a new one, agents must give up an existing one. This captures the spread of scientific constructs--forcing scientists to choose, for example, a deterministic or probabilistic worldview, as well as the adoption of durable items, such as mobile phones, cars, or homes. In this dissertation, I develop a statistical physics framework to describe, quantify, and understand substitutive systems. By empirically exploring three collected high-resolution datasets pertaining to such systems, I build a mechanistic model describing substitutions, which not only analytically predicts the universal macroscopic phenomenon discovered in the collected datasets, but also accurately captures the trajectories of individual items in a complex substitutive system, demonstrating a high degree of regularity and universality in substitutive systems. I also discuss the origins and insights of the parameters in the substitution model and possible generalization form of the mathematical framework. The systematical study of substitutive systems presented in this dissertation could potentially guide the understanding and prediction of all spreading phenomena driven by substitutions, from electric cars to scientific paradigms, and from renewable energy to new healthy habits.

Detection and attribution of climate change at regional scale: case study of Karkheh river basin in the west of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zohrabi, Narges; Goodarzi, Elahe; Massah Bavani, Alireza; Najafi, Husain

2017-11-01

This research aims at providing a statistical framework for detection and attribution of climate variability and change at regional scale when at least 30 years of observation data are available. While extensive research has been done on detecting significant observed trends in hydroclimate variables and attribution to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in large continents, less attention has been paid for regional scale analysis. The latter is mainly important for adaptation to climate change in different sectors including but not limited to energy, agriculture, and water resources planning and management, and it is still an open discussion in many countries including the West Asian ones. In the absence of regional climate models, an informative framework is suggested providing useful insights for policymakers. It benefits from general flexibility, not being computationally expensive, and applying several trend tests to analyze temporal variations in temperature and precipitation (gradual and step changes). The framework is implemented for a very important river basin in the west of Iran. In general, some increasing and decreasing trends of the interannual precipitation and temperature have been detected. For precipitation annual time series, a reducing step was seen around 1996 compared with the gradual change in most of the stations, which have not experience a dramatical change. The range of natural forcing is found to be ±76 % for precipitation and ±1.4 °C for temperature considering a two-dimensional diagram of precipitation and temperature anomalies from 1000-year control run of global climate model (GCM). Findings out of applying the proposed framework may provide useful insights into how to approach structural and non-structural climate change adaptation strategies from central governments.

The Nature Index: a general framework for synthesizing knowledge on the state of biodiversity.

PubMed

Certain, Grégoire; Skarpaas, Olav; Bjerke, Jarle-Werner; Framstad, Erik; Lindholm, Markus; Nilsen, Jan-Erik; Norderhaug, Ann; Oug, Eivind; Pedersen, Hans-Christian; Schartau, Ann-Kristin; van der Meeren, Gro I; Aslaksen, Iulie; Engen, Steinar; Garnåsjordet, Per-Arild; Kvaløy, Pål; Lillegård, Magnar; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Nybø, Signe

2011-04-22

The magnitude and urgency of the biodiversity crisis is widely recognized within scientific and political organizations. However, a lack of integrated measures for biodiversity has greatly constrained the national and international response to the biodiversity crisis. Thus, integrated biodiversity indexes will greatly facilitate information transfer from science toward other areas of human society. The Nature Index framework samples scientific information on biodiversity from a variety of sources, synthesizes this information, and then transmits it in a simplified form to environmental managers, policymakers, and the public. The Nature Index optimizes information use by incorporating expert judgment, monitoring-based estimates, and model-based estimates. The index relies on a network of scientific experts, each of whom is responsible for one or more biodiversity indicators. The resulting set of indicators is supposed to represent the best available knowledge on the state of biodiversity and ecosystems in any given area. The value of each indicator is scaled relative to a reference state, i.e., a predicted value assessed by each expert for a hypothetical undisturbed or sustainably managed ecosystem. Scaled indicator values can be aggregated or disaggregated over different axes representing spatiotemporal dimensions or thematic groups. A range of scaling models can be applied to allow for different ways of interpreting the reference states, e.g., optimal situations or minimum sustainable levels. Statistical testing for differences in space or time can be implemented using Monte-Carlo simulations. This study presents the Nature Index framework and details its implementation in Norway. The results suggest that the framework is a functional, efficient, and pragmatic approach for gathering and synthesizing scientific knowledge on the state of biodiversity in any marine or terrestrial ecosystem and has general applicability worldwide.

The Nature Index: A General Framework for Synthesizing Knowledge on the State of Biodiversity

PubMed Central

Certain, Grégoire; Skarpaas, Olav; Bjerke, Jarle-Werner; Framstad, Erik; Lindholm, Markus; Nilsen, Jan-Erik; Norderhaug, Ann; Oug, Eivind; Pedersen, Hans-Christian; Schartau, Ann-Kristin; van der Meeren, Gro I.; Aslaksen, Iulie; Engen, Steinar; Garnåsjordet, Per-Arild; Kvaløy, Pål; Lillegård, Magnar; Yoccoz, Nigel G.; Nybø, Signe

2011-01-01

The magnitude and urgency of the biodiversity crisis is widely recognized within scientific and political organizations. However, a lack of integrated measures for biodiversity has greatly constrained the national and international response to the biodiversity crisis. Thus, integrated biodiversity indexes will greatly facilitate information transfer from science toward other areas of human society. The Nature Index framework samples scientific information on biodiversity from a variety of sources, synthesizes this information, and then transmits it in a simplified form to environmental managers, policymakers, and the public. The Nature Index optimizes information use by incorporating expert judgment, monitoring-based estimates, and model-based estimates. The index relies on a network of scientific experts, each of whom is responsible for one or more biodiversity indicators. The resulting set of indicators is supposed to represent the best available knowledge on the state of biodiversity and ecosystems in any given area. The value of each indicator is scaled relative to a reference state, i.e., a predicted value assessed by each expert for a hypothetical undisturbed or sustainably managed ecosystem. Scaled indicator values can be aggregated or disaggregated over different axes representing spatiotemporal dimensions or thematic groups. A range of scaling models can be applied to allow for different ways of interpreting the reference states, e.g., optimal situations or minimum sustainable levels. Statistical testing for differences in space or time can be implemented using Monte-Carlo simulations. This study presents the Nature Index framework and details its implementation in Norway. The results suggest that the framework is a functional, efficient, and pragmatic approach for gathering and synthesizing scientific knowledge on the state of biodiversity in any marine or terrestrial ecosystem and has general applicability worldwide. PMID:21526118

A Penalized Likelihood Framework For High-Dimensional Phylogenetic Comparative Methods And An Application To New-World Monkeys Brain Evolution.

PubMed

Julien, Clavel; Leandro, Aristide; Hélène, Morlon

2018-06-19

Working with high-dimensional phylogenetic comparative datasets is challenging because likelihood-based multivariate methods suffer from low statistical performances as the number of traits p approaches the number of species n and because some computational complications occur when p exceeds n. Alternative phylogenetic comparative methods have recently been proposed to deal with the large p small n scenario but their use and performances are limited. Here we develop a penalized likelihood framework to deal with high-dimensional comparative datasets. We propose various penalizations and methods for selecting the intensity of the penalties. We apply this general framework to the estimation of parameters (the evolutionary trait covariance matrix and parameters of the evolutionary model) and model comparison for the high-dimensional multivariate Brownian (BM), Early-burst (EB), Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) and Pagel's lambda models. We show using simulations that our penalized likelihood approach dramatically improves the estimation of evolutionary trait covariance matrices and model parameters when p approaches n, and allows for their accurate estimation when p equals or exceeds n. In addition, we show that penalized likelihood models can be efficiently compared using Generalized Information Criterion (GIC). We implement these methods, as well as the related estimation of ancestral states and the computation of phylogenetic PCA in the R package RPANDA and mvMORPH. Finally, we illustrate the utility of the new proposed framework by evaluating evolutionary models fit, analyzing integration patterns, and reconstructing evolutionary trajectories for a high-dimensional 3-D dataset of brain shape in the New World monkeys. We find a clear support for an Early-burst model suggesting an early diversification of brain morphology during the ecological radiation of the clade. Penalized likelihood offers an efficient way to deal with high-dimensional multivariate comparative data.

A data fusion framework for meta-evaluation of intelligent transportation system effectiveness

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

This study presents a framework for the meta-evaluation of Intelligent Transportation System effectiveness. The framework is based on data fusion approaches that adjust for data biases and violations of other standard statistical assumptions. Operati...

A model for AGN variability on multiple time-scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sartori, Lia F.; Schawinski, Kevin; Trakhtenbrot, Benny; Caplar, Neven; Treister, Ezequiel; Koss, Michael J.; Urry, C. Megan; Zhang, C. E.

2018-05-01

We present a framework to link and describe active galactic nuclei (AGN) variability on a wide range of time-scales, from days to billions of years. In particular, we concentrate on the AGN variability features related to changes in black hole fuelling and accretion rate. In our framework, the variability features observed in different AGN at different time-scales may be explained as realisations of the same underlying statistical properties. In this context, we propose a model to simulate the evolution of AGN light curves with time based on the probability density function (PDF) and power spectral density (PSD) of the Eddington ratio (L/LEdd) distribution. Motivated by general galaxy population properties, we propose that the PDF may be inspired by the L/LEdd distribution function (ERDF), and that a single (or limited number of) ERDF+PSD set may explain all observed variability features. After outlining the framework and the model, we compile a set of variability measurements in terms of structure function (SF) and magnitude difference. We then combine the variability measurements on a SF plot ranging from days to Gyr. The proposed framework enables constraints on the underlying PSD and the ability to link AGN variability on different time-scales, therefore providing new insights into AGN variability and black hole growth phenomena.

Applications of statistics to medical science (1) Fundamental concepts.

PubMed

Watanabe, Hiroshi

2011-01-01

The conceptual framework of statistical tests and statistical inferences are discussed, and the epidemiological background of statistics is briefly reviewed. This study is one of a series in which we survey the basics of statistics and practical methods used in medical statistics. Arguments related to actual statistical analysis procedures will be made in subsequent papers.

Generalized reduced rank latent factor regression for high dimensional tensor fields, and neuroimaging-genetic applications

PubMed Central

Tao, Chenyang; Nichols, Thomas E.; Hua, Xue; Ching, Christopher R.K.; Rolls, Edmund T.; Thompson, Paul M.; Feng, Jianfeng

2017-01-01

We propose a generalized reduced rank latent factor regression model (GRRLF) for the analysis of tensor field responses and high dimensional covariates. The model is motivated by the need from imaging-genetic studies to identify genetic variants that are associated with brain imaging phenotypes, often in the form of high dimensional tensor fields. GRRLF identifies from the structure in the data the effective dimensionality of the data, and then jointly performs dimension reduction of the covariates, dynamic identification of latent factors, and nonparametric estimation of both covariate and latent response fields. After accounting for the latent and covariate effects, GRLLF performs a nonparametric test on the remaining factor of interest. GRRLF provides a better factorization of the signals compared with common solutions, and is less susceptible to overfitting because it exploits the effective dimensionality. The generality and the flexibility of GRRLF also allow various statistical models to be handled in a unified framework and solutions can be efficiently computed. Within the field of neuroimaging, it improves the sensitivity for weak signals and is a promising alternative to existing approaches. The operation of the framework is demonstrated with both synthetic datasets and a real-world neuroimaging example in which the effects of a set of genes on the structure of the brain at the voxel level were measured, and the results compared favorably with those from existing approaches. PMID:27666385

Unified theory for stochastic modelling of hydroclimatic processes: Preserving marginal distributions, correlation structures, and intermittency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papalexiou, Simon Michael

2018-05-01

Hydroclimatic processes come in all "shapes and sizes". They are characterized by different spatiotemporal correlation structures and probability distributions that can be continuous, mixed-type, discrete or even binary. Simulating such processes by reproducing precisely their marginal distribution and linear correlation structure, including features like intermittency, can greatly improve hydrological analysis and design. Traditionally, modelling schemes are case specific and typically attempt to preserve few statistical moments providing inadequate and potentially risky distribution approximations. Here, a single framework is proposed that unifies, extends, and improves a general-purpose modelling strategy, based on the assumption that any process can emerge by transforming a specific "parent" Gaussian process. A novel mathematical representation of this scheme, introducing parametric correlation transformation functions, enables straightforward estimation of the parent-Gaussian process yielding the target process after the marginal back transformation, while it provides a general description that supersedes previous specific parameterizations, offering a simple, fast and efficient simulation procedure for every stationary process at any spatiotemporal scale. This framework, also applicable for cyclostationary and multivariate modelling, is augmented with flexible parametric correlation structures that parsimoniously describe observed correlations. Real-world simulations of various hydroclimatic processes with different correlation structures and marginals, such as precipitation, river discharge, wind speed, humidity, extreme events per year, etc., as well as a multivariate example, highlight the flexibility, advantages, and complete generality of the method.

A mathematical framework for combining decisions of multiple experts toward accurate and remote diagnosis of malaria using tele-microscopy.

PubMed

Mavandadi, Sam; Feng, Steve; Yu, Frank; Dimitrov, Stoyan; Nielsen-Saines, Karin; Prescott, William R; Ozcan, Aydogan

2012-01-01

We propose a methodology for digitally fusing diagnostic decisions made by multiple medical experts in order to improve accuracy of diagnosis. Toward this goal, we report an experimental study involving nine experts, where each one was given more than 8,000 digital microscopic images of individual human red blood cells and asked to identify malaria infected cells. The results of this experiment reveal that even highly trained medical experts are not always self-consistent in their diagnostic decisions and that there exists a fair level of disagreement among experts, even for binary decisions (i.e., infected vs. uninfected). To tackle this general medical diagnosis problem, we propose a probabilistic algorithm to fuse the decisions made by trained medical experts to robustly achieve higher levels of accuracy when compared to individual experts making such decisions. By modelling the decisions of experts as a three component mixture model and solving for the underlying parameters using the Expectation Maximisation algorithm, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach which significantly improves the overall diagnostic accuracy of malaria infected cells. Additionally, we present a mathematical framework for performing 'slide-level' diagnosis by using individual 'cell-level' diagnosis data, shedding more light on the statistical rules that should govern the routine practice in examination of e.g., thin blood smear samples. This framework could be generalized for various other tele-pathology needs, and can be used by trained experts within an efficient tele-medicine platform.

A general Bayesian framework for calibrating and evaluating stochastic models of annual multi-site hydrological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frost, Andrew J.; Thyer, Mark A.; Srikanthan, R.; Kuczera, George

2007-07-01

SummaryMulti-site simulation of hydrological data are required for drought risk assessment of large multi-reservoir water supply systems. In this paper, a general Bayesian framework is presented for the calibration and evaluation of multi-site hydrological data at annual timescales. Models included within this framework are the hidden Markov model (HMM) and the widely used lag-1 autoregressive (AR(1)) model. These models are extended by the inclusion of a Box-Cox transformation and a spatial correlation function in a multi-site setting. Parameter uncertainty is evaluated using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Models are evaluated by their ability to reproduce a range of important extreme statistics and compared using Bayesian model selection techniques which evaluate model probabilities. The case study, using multi-site annual rainfall data situated within catchments which contribute to Sydney's main water supply, provided the following results: Firstly, in terms of model probabilities and diagnostics, the inclusion of the Box-Cox transformation was preferred. Secondly the AR(1) and HMM performed similarly, while some other proposed AR(1)/HMM models with regionally pooled parameters had greater posterior probability than these two models. The practical significance of parameter and model uncertainty was illustrated using a case study involving drought security analysis for urban water supply. It was shown that ignoring parameter uncertainty resulted in a significant overestimate of reservoir yield and an underestimation of system vulnerability to severe drought.

Epidemiology Characteristics, Methodological Assessment and Reporting of Statistical Analysis of Network Meta-Analyses in the Field of Cancer

PubMed Central

Ge, Long; Tian, Jin-hui; Li, Xiu-xia; Song, Fujian; Li, Lun; Zhang, Jun; Li, Ge; Pei, Gai-qin; Qiu, Xia; Yang, Ke-hu

2016-01-01

Because of the methodological complexity of network meta-analyses (NMAs), NMAs may be more vulnerable to methodological risks than conventional pair-wise meta-analysis. Our study aims to investigate epidemiology characteristics, conduction of literature search, methodological quality and reporting of statistical analysis process in the field of cancer based on PRISMA extension statement and modified AMSTAR checklist. We identified and included 102 NMAs in the field of cancer. 61 NMAs were conducted using a Bayesian framework. Of them, more than half of NMAs did not report assessment of convergence (60.66%). Inconsistency was assessed in 27.87% of NMAs. Assessment of heterogeneity in traditional meta-analyses was more common (42.62%) than in NMAs (6.56%). Most of NMAs did not report assessment of similarity (86.89%) and did not used GRADE tool to assess quality of evidence (95.08%). 43 NMAs were adjusted indirect comparisons, the methods used were described in 53.49% NMAs. Only 4.65% NMAs described the details of handling of multi group trials and 6.98% described the methods of similarity assessment. The median total AMSTAR-score was 8.00 (IQR: 6.00–8.25). Methodological quality and reporting of statistical analysis did not substantially differ by selected general characteristics. Overall, the quality of NMAs in the field of cancer was generally acceptable. PMID:27848997

Right-Sizing Statistical Models for Longitudinal Data

PubMed Central

Wood, Phillip K.; Steinley, Douglas; Jackson, Kristina M.

2015-01-01

Arguments are proposed that researchers using longitudinal data should consider more and less complex statistical model alternatives to their initially chosen techniques in an effort to “right-size” the model to the data at hand. Such model comparisons may alert researchers who use poorly fitting overly parsimonious models to more complex better fitting alternatives, and, alternatively, may identify more parsimonious alternatives to overly complex (and perhaps empirically under-identified and/or less powerful) statistical models. A general framework is proposed for considering (often nested) relationships between a variety of psychometric and growth curve models. A three-step approach is proposed in which models are evaluated based on the number and patterning of variance components prior to selection of better-fitting growth models that explain both mean and variation/covariation patterns. The orthogonal, free-curve slope-intercept (FCSI) growth model is considered as a general model which includes, as special cases, many models including the Factor Mean model (FM, McArdle & Epstein, 1987), McDonald's (1967) linearly constrained factor model, Hierarchical Linear Models (HLM), Repeated Measures MANOVA, and the Linear Slope Intercept (LinearSI) Growth Model. The FCSI model, in turn, is nested within the Tuckerized factor model. The approach is illustrated by comparing alternative models in a longitudinal study of children's vocabulary and by comparison of several candidate parametric growth and chronometric models in a Monte Carlo study. PMID:26237507

Right-sizing statistical models for longitudinal data.

PubMed

Wood, Phillip K; Steinley, Douglas; Jackson, Kristina M

2015-12-01

Arguments are proposed that researchers using longitudinal data should consider more and less complex statistical model alternatives to their initially chosen techniques in an effort to "right-size" the model to the data at hand. Such model comparisons may alert researchers who use poorly fitting, overly parsimonious models to more complex, better-fitting alternatives and, alternatively, may identify more parsimonious alternatives to overly complex (and perhaps empirically underidentified and/or less powerful) statistical models. A general framework is proposed for considering (often nested) relationships between a variety of psychometric and growth curve models. A 3-step approach is proposed in which models are evaluated based on the number and patterning of variance components prior to selection of better-fitting growth models that explain both mean and variation-covariation patterns. The orthogonal free curve slope intercept (FCSI) growth model is considered a general model that includes, as special cases, many models, including the factor mean (FM) model (McArdle & Epstein, 1987), McDonald's (1967) linearly constrained factor model, hierarchical linear models (HLMs), repeated-measures multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA), and the linear slope intercept (linearSI) growth model. The FCSI model, in turn, is nested within the Tuckerized factor model. The approach is illustrated by comparing alternative models in a longitudinal study of children's vocabulary and by comparing several candidate parametric growth and chronometric models in a Monte Carlo study. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

A Classification of Statistics Courses (A Framework for Studying Statistical Education)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Turner, J. C.

1976-01-01

A classification of statistics courses in presented, with main categories of "course type,""methods of presentation,""objectives," and "syllabus." Examples and suggestions for uses of the classification are given. (DT)

Generalized statistical mechanics approaches to earthquakes and tectonics.

PubMed

Vallianatos, Filippos; Papadakis, Giorgos; Michas, Georgios

2016-12-01

Despite the extreme complexity that characterizes the mechanism of the earthquake generation process, simple empirical scaling relations apply to the collective properties of earthquakes and faults in a variety of tectonic environments and scales. The physical characterization of those properties and the scaling relations that describe them attract a wide scientific interest and are incorporated in the probabilistic forecasting of seismicity in local, regional and planetary scales. Considerable progress has been made in the analysis of the statistical mechanics of earthquakes, which, based on the principle of entropy, can provide a physical rationale to the macroscopic properties frequently observed. The scale-invariant properties, the (multi) fractal structures and the long-range interactions that have been found to characterize fault and earthquake populations have recently led to the consideration of non-extensive statistical mechanics (NESM) as a consistent statistical mechanics framework for the description of seismicity. The consistency between NESM and observations has been demonstrated in a series of publications on seismicity, faulting, rock physics and other fields of geosciences. The aim of this review is to present in a concise manner the fundamental macroscopic properties of earthquakes and faulting and how these can be derived by using the notions of statistical mechanics and NESM, providing further insights into earthquake physics and fault growth processes.

Generalized statistical mechanics approaches to earthquakes and tectonics

PubMed Central

Papadakis, Giorgos; Michas, Georgios

2016-01-01

Despite the extreme complexity that characterizes the mechanism of the earthquake generation process, simple empirical scaling relations apply to the collective properties of earthquakes and faults in a variety of tectonic environments and scales. The physical characterization of those properties and the scaling relations that describe them attract a wide scientific interest and are incorporated in the probabilistic forecasting of seismicity in local, regional and planetary scales. Considerable progress has been made in the analysis of the statistical mechanics of earthquakes, which, based on the principle of entropy, can provide a physical rationale to the macroscopic properties frequently observed. The scale-invariant properties, the (multi) fractal structures and the long-range interactions that have been found to characterize fault and earthquake populations have recently led to the consideration of non-extensive statistical mechanics (NESM) as a consistent statistical mechanics framework for the description of seismicity. The consistency between NESM and observations has been demonstrated in a series of publications on seismicity, faulting, rock physics and other fields of geosciences. The aim of this review is to present in a concise manner the fundamental macroscopic properties of earthquakes and faulting and how these can be derived by using the notions of statistical mechanics and NESM, providing further insights into earthquake physics and fault growth processes. PMID:28119548

Comparative analysis of the fit of 3-unit implant-supported frameworks cast in nickel-chromium and cobalt-chromium alloys and commercially pure titanium after casting, laser welding, and simulated porcelain firings.

PubMed

Tiossi, Rodrigo; Rodrigues, Renata Cristina Silveira; de Mattos, Maria da Glória Chiarello; Ribeiro, Ricardo Faria

2008-01-01

This study compared the vertical misfit of 3-unit implant-supported nickel-chromium (Ni-Cr) and cobalt-chromium (Co-Cr) alloy and commercially pure titanium (cpTi) frameworks after casting as 1 piece, after sectioning and laser welding, and after simulated porcelain firings. The results on the tightened side showed no statistically significant differences. On the opposite side, statistically significant differences were found for Co-Cr alloy (118.64 microm [SD: 91.48] to 39.90 microm [SD: 27.13]) and cpTi (118.56 microm [51.35] to 27.87 microm [12.71]) when comparing 1-piece to laser-welded frameworks. With both sides tightened, only Co-Cr alloy showed statistically significant differences after laser welding. Ni-Cr alloy showed the lowest misfit values, though the differences were not statistically significantly different. Simulated porcelain firings revealed no significant differences.

Stochastic cycle selection in active flow networks.

PubMed

Woodhouse, Francis G; Forrow, Aden; Fawcett, Joanna B; Dunkel, Jörn

2016-07-19

Active biological flow networks pervade nature and span a wide range of scales, from arterial blood vessels and bronchial mucus transport in humans to bacterial flow through porous media or plasmodial shuttle streaming in slime molds. Despite their ubiquity, little is known about the self-organization principles that govern flow statistics in such nonequilibrium networks. Here we connect concepts from lattice field theory, graph theory, and transition rate theory to understand how topology controls dynamics in a generic model for actively driven flow on a network. Our combined theoretical and numerical analysis identifies symmetry-based rules that make it possible to classify and predict the selection statistics of complex flow cycles from the network topology. The conceptual framework developed here is applicable to a broad class of biological and nonbiological far-from-equilibrium networks, including actively controlled information flows, and establishes a correspondence between active flow networks and generalized ice-type models.

Stochastic cycle selection in active flow networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodhouse, Francis; Forrow, Aden; Fawcett, Joanna; Dunkel, Jorn

2016-11-01

Active biological flow networks pervade nature and span a wide range of scales, from arterial blood vessels and bronchial mucus transport in humans to bacterial flow through porous media or plasmodial shuttle streaming in slime molds. Despite their ubiquity, little is known about the self-organization principles that govern flow statistics in such non-equilibrium networks. By connecting concepts from lattice field theory, graph theory and transition rate theory, we show how topology controls dynamics in a generic model for actively driven flow on a network. Through theoretical and numerical analysis we identify symmetry-based rules to classify and predict the selection statistics of complex flow cycles from the network topology. Our conceptual framework is applicable to a broad class of biological and non-biological far-from-equilibrium networks, including actively controlled information flows, and establishes a new correspondence between active flow networks and generalized ice-type models.

Roger's pattern manifestations and health in adolescents.

PubMed

Yarcheski, A; Mahon, N E

1995-08-01

The purpose of this exploratory study was to examine four manifestations of human-environmental field patterning--human field motion, human field rhythms, creativity, and sentience--in relation to perceived health status in 106 early, 111 middle, and 113 late adolescents. Participants responded to the Perceived Field Motion Instrument (a measure of human field motion), the Human Field Rhythms Scale, the Sentience Scale, the General Health Rating Index (a measure of perceived health status), and a brief demographic data sheet in classroom settings. Data were analyzed using Pearson correlations. Statistically significant positive correlations were found between perceived field motion and perceived health status in early, middle, and late adolescents, between human field rhythms and perceived health status in late adolescents only, and between creativity and perceived health status in late adolescents only. The inverse relationship found between sentience and perceived health status in early, middle, and late adolescents was not statistically significant. The findings are interpreted within a Rogerian framework.

Precision Cosmology: The First Half Million Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Bernard J. T.

2017-06-01

Cosmology seeks to characterise our Universe in terms of models based on well-understood and tested physics. Today we know our Universe with a precision that once would have been unthinkable. This book develops the entire mathematical, physical and statistical framework within which this has been achieved. It tells the story of how we arrive at our profound conclusions, starting from the early twentieth century and following developments up to the latest data analysis of big astronomical datasets. It provides an enlightening description of the mathematical, physical and statistical basis for understanding and interpreting the results of key space- and ground-based data. Subjects covered include general relativity, cosmological models, the inhomogeneous Universe, physics of the cosmic background radiation, and methods and results of data analysis. Extensive online supplementary notes, exercises, teaching materials, and exercises in Python make this the perfect companion for researchers, teachers and students in physics, mathematics, and astrophysics.

Stochastic cycle selection in active flow networks

PubMed Central

Woodhouse, Francis G.; Forrow, Aden; Fawcett, Joanna B.; Dunkel, Jörn

2016-01-01

Active biological flow networks pervade nature and span a wide range of scales, from arterial blood vessels and bronchial mucus transport in humans to bacterial flow through porous media or plasmodial shuttle streaming in slime molds. Despite their ubiquity, little is known about the self-organization principles that govern flow statistics in such nonequilibrium networks. Here we connect concepts from lattice field theory, graph theory, and transition rate theory to understand how topology controls dynamics in a generic model for actively driven flow on a network. Our combined theoretical and numerical analysis identifies symmetry-based rules that make it possible to classify and predict the selection statistics of complex flow cycles from the network topology. The conceptual framework developed here is applicable to a broad class of biological and nonbiological far-from-equilibrium networks, including actively controlled information flows, and establishes a correspondence between active flow networks and generalized ice-type models. PMID:27382186

Statistical Modeling of Fire Occurrence Using Data from the Tōhoku, Japan Earthquake and Tsunami.

PubMed

Anderson, Dana; Davidson, Rachel A; Himoto, Keisuke; Scawthorn, Charles

2016-02-01

In this article, we develop statistical models to predict the number and geographic distribution of fires caused by earthquake ground motion and tsunami inundation in Japan. Using new, uniquely large, and consistent data sets from the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, we fitted three types of models-generalized linear models (GLMs), generalized additive models (GAMs), and boosted regression trees (BRTs). This is the first time the latter two have been used in this application. A simple conceptual framework guided identification of candidate covariates. Models were then compared based on their out-of-sample predictive power, goodness of fit to the data, ease of implementation, and relative importance of the framework concepts. For the ground motion data set, we recommend a Poisson GAM; for the tsunami data set, a negative binomial (NB) GLM or NB GAM. The best models generate out-of-sample predictions of the total number of ignitions in the region within one or two. Prefecture-level prediction errors average approximately three. All models demonstrate predictive power far superior to four from the literature that were also tested. A nonlinear relationship is apparent between ignitions and ground motion, so for GLMs, which assume a linear response-covariate relationship, instrumental intensity was the preferred ground motion covariate because it captures part of that nonlinearity. Measures of commercial exposure were preferred over measures of residential exposure for both ground motion and tsunami ignition models. This may vary in other regions, but nevertheless highlights the value of testing alternative measures for each concept. Models with the best predictive power included two or three covariates. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Retrofitting Non-Cognitive-Diagnostic Reading Assessment under the Generalized DINA Model Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Huilin; Chen, Jinsong

2016-01-01

Cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) are psychometric models developed mainly to assess examinees' specific strengths and weaknesses in a set of skills or attributes within a domain. By adopting the Generalized-DINA model framework, the recently developed general modeling framework, we attempted to retrofit the PISA reading assessments, a…

Response to traumatic brain injury neurorehabilitation through an artificial intelligence and statistics hybrid knowledge discovery from databases methodology.

PubMed

Gibert, Karina; García-Rudolph, Alejandro; García-Molina, Alberto; Roig-Rovira, Teresa; Bernabeu, Montse; Tormos, José María

2008-01-01

Develop a classificatory tool to identify different populations of patients with Traumatic Brain Injury based on the characteristics of deficit and response to treatment. A KDD framework where first, descriptive statistics of every variable was done, data cleaning and selection of relevant variables. Then data was mined using a generalization of Clustering based on rules (CIBR), an hybrid AI and Statistics technique which combines inductive learning (AI) and clustering (Statistics). A prior Knowledge Base (KB) is considered to properly bias the clustering; semantic constraints implied by the KB hold in final clusters, guaranteeing interpretability of the resultis. A generalization (Exogenous Clustering based on rules, ECIBR) is presented, allowing to define the KB in terms of variables which will not be considered in the clustering process itself, to get more flexibility. Several tools as Class panel graph are introduced in the methodology to assist final interpretation. A set of 5 classes was recommended by the system and interpretation permitted profiles labeling. From the medical point of view, composition of classes is well corresponding with different patterns of increasing level of response to rehabilitation treatments. All the patients initially assessable conform a single group. Severe impaired patients are subdivided in four profiles which clearly distinct response patterns. Particularly interesting the partial response profile, where patients could not improve executive functions. Meaningful classes were obtained and, from a semantics point of view, the results were sensibly improved regarding classical clustering, according to our opinion that hybrid AI & Stats techniques are more powerful for KDD than pure ones.

Statistical mechanics and scaling of fault populations with increasing strain in the Corinth Rift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michas, Georgios; Vallianatos, Filippos; Sammonds, Peter

2015-12-01

Scaling properties of fracture/fault systems are studied in order to characterize the mechanical properties of rocks and to provide insight into the mechanisms that govern fault growth. A comprehensive image of the fault network in the Corinth Rift, Greece, obtained through numerous field studies and marine geophysical surveys, allows for the first time such a study over the entire area of the Rift. We compile a detailed fault map of the area and analyze the scaling properties of fault trace-lengths by using a statistical mechanics model, derived in the framework of generalized statistical mechanics and associated maximum entropy principle. By using this framework, a range of asymptotic power-law to exponential-like distributions are derived that can well describe the observed scaling patterns of fault trace-lengths in the Rift. Systematic variations and in particular a transition from asymptotic power-law to exponential-like scaling are observed to be a function of increasing strain in distinct strain regimes in the Rift, providing quantitative evidence for such crustal processes in a single tectonic setting. These results indicate the organization of the fault system as a function of brittle strain in the Earth's crust and suggest there are different mechanisms for fault growth in the distinct parts of the Rift. In addition, other factors such as fault interactions and the thickness of the brittle layer affect how the fault system evolves in time. The results suggest that regional strain, fault interactions and the boundary condition of the brittle layer may control fault growth and the fault network evolution in the Corinth Rift.

Understanding Statistical Concepts and Terms in Context: The GovStat Ontology and the Statistical Interactive Glossary.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haas, Stephanie W.; Pattuelli, Maria Cristina; Brown, Ron T.

2003-01-01

Describes the Statistical Interactive Glossary (SIG), an enhanced glossary of statistical terms supported by the GovStat ontology of statistical concepts. Presents a conceptual framework whose components articulate different aspects of a term's basic explanation that can be manipulated to produce a variety of presentations. The overarching…

Active contours on statistical manifolds and texture segmentation

Treesearch

Sang-Mook Lee; A. Lynn Abbott; Neil A. Clark; Philip A. Araman

2005-01-01

A new approach to active contours on statistical manifolds is presented. The statistical manifolds are 2- dimensional Riemannian manifolds that are statistically defined by maps that transform a parameter domain onto a set of probability density functions. In this novel framework, color or texture features are measured at each image point and their statistical...

Active contours on statistical manifolds and texture segmentaiton

Treesearch

Sang-Mook Lee; A. Lynn Abbott; Neil A. Clark; Philip A. Araman

2005-01-01

A new approach to active contours on statistical manifolds is presented. The statistical manifolds are 2- dimensional Riemannian manifolds that are statistically defined by maps that transform a parameter domain onto-a set of probability density functions. In this novel framework, color or texture features are measured at each Image point and their statistical...

SOCR: Statistics Online Computational Resource

PubMed Central

Dinov, Ivo D.

2011-01-01

The need for hands-on computer laboratory experience in undergraduate and graduate statistics education has been firmly established in the past decade. As a result a number of attempts have been undertaken to develop novel approaches for problem-driven statistical thinking, data analysis and result interpretation. In this paper we describe an integrated educational web-based framework for: interactive distribution modeling, virtual online probability experimentation, statistical data analysis, visualization and integration. Following years of experience in statistical teaching at all college levels using established licensed statistical software packages, like STATA, S-PLUS, R, SPSS, SAS, Systat, etc., we have attempted to engineer a new statistics education environment, the Statistics Online Computational Resource (SOCR). This resource performs many of the standard types of statistical analysis, much like other classical tools. In addition, it is designed in a plug-in object-oriented architecture and is completely platform independent, web-based, interactive, extensible and secure. Over the past 4 years we have tested, fine-tuned and reanalyzed the SOCR framework in many of our undergraduate and graduate probability and statistics courses and have evidence that SOCR resources build student’s intuition and enhance their learning. PMID:21451741

Dynamics of non-Markovian exclusion processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khoromskaia, Diana; Harris, Rosemary J.; Grosskinsky, Stefan

2014-12-01

Driven diffusive systems are often used as simple discrete models of collective transport phenomena in physics, biology or social sciences. Restricting attention to one-dimensional geometries, the asymmetric simple exclusion process (ASEP) plays a paradigmatic role to describe noise-activated driven motion of entities subject to an excluded volume interaction and many variants have been studied in recent years. While in the standard ASEP the noise is Poissonian and the process is therefore Markovian, in many applications the statistics of the activating noise has a non-standard distribution with possible memory effects resulting from internal degrees of freedom or external sources. This leads to temporal correlations and can significantly affect the shape of the current-density relation as has been studied recently for a number of scenarios. In this paper we report a general framework to derive the fundamental diagram of ASEPs driven by non-Poissonian noise by using effectively only two simple quantities, viz., the mean residual lifetime of the jump distribution and a suitably defined temporal correlation length. We corroborate our results by detailed numerical studies for various noise statistics under periodic boundary conditions and discuss how our approach can be applied to more general driven diffusive systems.

NON-EXTENSIVE STATISTICS TO THE COSMOLOGICAL LITHIUM PROBLEM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hou, S. Q.; He, J. J.; Parikh, A.

Big Bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) theory predicts the abundances of the light elements D, {sup 3}He, {sup 4}He, and {sup 7}Li produced in the early universe. The primordial abundances of D and {sup 4}He inferred from observational data are in good agreement with predictions, however, BBN theory overestimates the primordial {sup 7}Li abundance by about a factor of three. This is the so-called “cosmological lithium problem.” Solutions to this problem using conventional astrophysics and nuclear physics have not been successful over the past few decades, probably indicating the presence of new physics during the era of BBN. We have investigated themore » impact on BBN predictions of adopting a generalized distribution to describe the velocities of nucleons in the framework of Tsallis non-extensive statistics. This generalized velocity distribution is characterized by a parameter q , and reduces to the usually assumed Maxwell–Boltzmann distribution for q  = 1. We find excellent agreement between predicted and observed primordial abundances of D, {sup 4}He, and {sup 7}Li for 1.069 ≤  q  ≤ 1.082, suggesting a possible new solution to the cosmological lithium problem.« less

Cave acoustics in prehistory: Exploring the association of Palaeolithic visual motifs and acoustic response.

PubMed

Fazenda, Bruno; Scarre, Chris; Till, Rupert; Pasalodos, Raquel Jiménez; Guerra, Manuel Rojo; Tejedor, Cristina; Peredo, Roberto Ontañón; Watson, Aaron; Wyatt, Simon; Benito, Carlos García; Drinkall, Helen; Foulds, Frederick

2017-09-01

During the 1980 s, acoustic studies of Upper Palaeolithic imagery in French caves-using the technology then available-suggested a relationship between acoustic response and the location of visual motifs. This paper presents an investigation, using modern acoustic measurement techniques, into such relationships within the caves of La Garma, Las Chimeneas, La Pasiega, El Castillo, and Tito Bustillo in Northern Spain. It addresses methodological issues concerning acoustic measurement at enclosed archaeological sites and outlines a general framework for extraction of acoustic features that may be used to support archaeological hypotheses. The analysis explores possible associations between the position of visual motifs (which may be up to 40 000 yrs old) and localized acoustic responses. Results suggest that motifs, in general, and lines and dots, in particular, are statistically more likely to be found in places where reverberation is moderate and where the low frequency acoustic response has evidence of resonant behavior. The work presented suggests that an association of the location of Palaeolithic motifs with acoustic features is a statistically weak but tenable hypothesis, and that an appreciation of sound could have influenced behavior among Palaeolithic societies of this region.

Structured statistical models of inductive reasoning.

PubMed

Kemp, Charles; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

2009-01-01

Everyday inductive inferences are often guided by rich background knowledge. Formal models of induction should aim to incorporate this knowledge and should explain how different kinds of knowledge lead to the distinctive patterns of reasoning found in different inductive contexts. This article presents a Bayesian framework that attempts to meet both goals and describes [corrected] 4 applications of the framework: a taxonomic model, a spatial model, a threshold model, and a causal model. Each model makes probabilistic inferences about the extensions of novel properties, but the priors for the 4 models are defined over different kinds of structures that capture different relationships between the categories in a domain. The framework therefore shows how statistical inference can operate over structured background knowledge, and the authors argue that this interaction between structure and statistics is critical for explaining the power and flexibility of human reasoning.

Multiresolution multiscale active mask segmentation of fluorescence microscope images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivasa, Gowri; Fickus, Matthew; Kovačević, Jelena

2009-08-01

We propose an active mask segmentation framework that combines the advantages of statistical modeling, smoothing, speed and flexibility offered by the traditional methods of region-growing, multiscale, multiresolution and active contours respectively. At the crux of this framework is a paradigm shift from evolving contours in the continuous domain to evolving multiple masks in the discrete domain. Thus, the active mask framework is particularly suited to segment digital images. We demonstrate the use of the framework in practice through the segmentation of punctate patterns in fluorescence microscope images. Experiments reveal that statistical modeling helps the multiple masks converge from a random initial configuration to a meaningful one. This obviates the need for an involved initialization procedure germane to most of the traditional methods used to segment fluorescence microscope images. While we provide the mathematical details of the functions used to segment fluorescence microscope images, this is only an instantiation of the active mask framework. We suggest some other instantiations of the framework to segment different types of images.

Time, frequency, and time-varying Granger-causality measures in neuroscience.

PubMed

Cekic, Sezen; Grandjean, Didier; Renaud, Olivier

2018-05-20

This article proposes a systematic methodological review and an objective criticism of existing methods enabling the derivation of time, frequency, and time-varying Granger-causality statistics in neuroscience. The capacity to describe the causal links between signals recorded at different brain locations during a neuroscience experiment is indeed of primary interest for neuroscientists, who often have very precise prior hypotheses about the relationships between recorded brain signals. The increasing interest and the huge number of publications related to this topic calls for this systematic review, which describes the very complex methodological aspects underlying the derivation of these statistics. In this article, we first present a general framework that allows us to review and compare Granger-causality statistics in the time domain, and the link with transfer entropy. Then, the spectral and the time-varying extensions are exposed and discussed together with their estimation and distributional properties. Although not the focus of this article, partial and conditional Granger causality, dynamical causal modelling, directed transfer function, directed coherence, partial directed coherence, and their variant are also mentioned. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Complementary Note to 'A Lag-1 Smoother Approach to System-Error Estimation': The Intrinsic Limitations of Residual Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Todling, Ricardo

2015-01-01

Recently, this author studied an approach to the estimation of system error based on combining observation residuals derived from a sequential filter and fixed lag-1 smoother. While extending the methodology to a variational formulation, experimenting with simple models and making sure consistency was found between the sequential and variational formulations, the limitations of the residual-based approach came clearly to the surface. This note uses the sequential assimilation application to simple nonlinear dynamics to highlight the issue. Only when some of the underlying error statistics are assumed known is it possible to estimate the unknown component. In general, when considerable uncertainties exist in the underlying statistics as a whole, attempts to obtain separate estimates of the various error covariances are bound to lead to misrepresentation of errors. The conclusions are particularly relevant to present-day attempts to estimate observation-error correlations from observation residual statistics. A brief illustration of the issue is also provided by comparing estimates of error correlations derived from a quasi-operational assimilation system and a corresponding Observing System Simulation Experiments framework.

2D Affine and Projective Shape Analysis.

PubMed

Bryner, Darshan; Klassen, Eric; Huiling Le; Srivastava, Anuj

2014-05-01

Current techniques for shape analysis tend to seek invariance to similarity transformations (rotation, translation, and scale), but certain imaging situations require invariance to larger groups, such as affine or projective groups. Here we present a general Riemannian framework for shape analysis of planar objects where metrics and related quantities are invariant to affine and projective groups. Highlighting two possibilities for representing object boundaries-ordered points (or landmarks) and parameterized curves-we study different combinations of these representations (points and curves) and transformations (affine and projective). Specifically, we provide solutions to three out of four situations and develop algorithms for computing geodesics and intrinsic sample statistics, leading up to Gaussian-type statistical models, and classifying test shapes using such models learned from training data. In the case of parameterized curves, we also achieve the desired goal of invariance to re-parameterizations. The geodesics are constructed by particularizing the path-straightening algorithm to geometries of current manifolds and are used, in turn, to compute shape statistics and Gaussian-type shape models. We demonstrate these ideas using a number of examples from shape and activity recognition.

Directions for new developments on statistical design and analysis of small population group trials.

PubMed

Hilgers, Ralf-Dieter; Roes, Kit; Stallard, Nigel

2016-06-14

Most statistical design and analysis methods for clinical trials have been developed and evaluated where at least several hundreds of patients could be recruited. These methods may not be suitable to evaluate therapies if the sample size is unavoidably small, which is usually termed by small populations. The specific sample size cut off, where the standard methods fail, needs to be investigated. In this paper, the authors present their view on new developments for design and analysis of clinical trials in small population groups, where conventional statistical methods may be inappropriate, e.g., because of lack of power or poor adherence to asymptotic approximations due to sample size restrictions. Following the EMA/CHMP guideline on clinical trials in small populations, we consider directions for new developments in the area of statistical methodology for design and analysis of small population clinical trials. We relate the findings to the research activities of three projects, Asterix, IDeAl, and InSPiRe, which have received funding since 2013 within the FP7-HEALTH-2013-INNOVATION-1 framework of the EU. As not all aspects of the wide research area of small population clinical trials can be addressed, we focus on areas where we feel advances are needed and feasible. The general framework of the EMA/CHMP guideline on small population clinical trials stimulates a number of research areas. These serve as the basis for the three projects, Asterix, IDeAl, and InSPiRe, which use various approaches to develop new statistical methodology for design and analysis of small population clinical trials. Small population clinical trials refer to trials with a limited number of patients. Small populations may result form rare diseases or specific subtypes of more common diseases. New statistical methodology needs to be tailored to these specific situations. The main results from the three projects will constitute a useful toolbox for improved design and analysis of small population clinical trials. They address various challenges presented by the EMA/CHMP guideline as well as recent discussions about extrapolation. There is a need for involvement of the patients' perspective in the planning and conduct of small population clinical trials for a successful therapy evaluation.

Studying Weather and Climate Extremes in a Non-stationary Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Z.

2010-12-01

The study of weather and climate extremes often uses the theory of extreme values. Such a detection method has a major problem: to obtain the probability distribution of extremes, one has to implicitly assume the Earth’s climate is stationary over a long period within which the climatology is defined. While such detection makes some sense in a purely statistical view of stationary processes, it can lead to misleading statistical properties of weather and climate extremes caused by long term climate variability and change, and may also cause enormous difficulty in attributing and predicting these extremes. To alleviate this problem, here we report a novel non-stationary framework for studying weather and climate extremes in a non-stationary framework. In this new framework, the weather and climate extremes will be defined as timescale-dependent quantities derived from the anomalies with respect to non-stationary climatologies of different timescales. With this non-stationary framework, the non-stationary and nonlinear nature of climate system will be taken into account; and the attribution and the prediction of weather and climate extremes can then be separated into 1) the change of the statistical properties of the weather and climate extremes themselves and 2) the background climate variability and change. The new non-stationary framework will use the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method, which is a recent major improvement of the Hilbert-Huang Transform for time-frequency analysis. Using this tool, we will adaptively decompose various weather and climate data from observation and climate models in terms of the components of the various natural timescales contained in the data. With such decompositions, the non-stationary statistical properties (both spatial and temporal) of weather and climate anomalies and of their corresponding climatologies will be analyzed and documented.

To b or not to b ?? A nonextensive view of b-value in the Gutenberg-Richter law.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallianatos, Filippos

2014-05-01

The Gutenberg-Richter (GR) (Gutenberg and Richter, 1944) law one of the cornerstones of modern seismology has been considered as a paradigm of manifestation of self-organized criticality since the dependence of the cumulative number of earthquakes with energy, i.e., the number of earthquakes with energy greater than E, behaves as a power law with the b value related to the critical exponent. A great number of seismic hazard studies have been originated as a result of this law. The Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law is an empirical relationship, which recent efforts relate it with general physical principles (Kagan and Knopoff, 1981; Wesnousky, 1999; Sarlis et al., 2010; Telesca, 2012; Vallianatos and Sammonds, 2013). Nonextensive statistical mechanics pioneered by Tsallis (Tsallis, 2009) provides a consistent theoretical framework for the studies of complex systems in their nonequilibrium stationary states, systems with multi fractal and self-similar structures, long-range interacting systems, etc. Earth is such system. In the present work we analyze the different pathways (originated in Sotolongo-Costa, A. Posadas , 2004; Silva et al., 2006) to extract the generalization of the G-R law as obtained in the frame of non extensive statistical physics. We estimate the b-value and we discuss its underline physics. This research has been funded by the European Union (European Social Fund) and Greek national resources under the framework of the "THALES Program: SEISMO FEAR HELLARC" project of the "Education & Lifelong Learning" Operational Programme. References Gutenberg, B. and C. F. Richter (1944). Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 34, 185-188. Kagan, Y. Y. and L. Knopoff (1981). J. Geophys. Res. 86, 2853-2862. Sarlis, N., E. Skordas and P. Varotsos (2010). Physical Review E - Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics 82 (2) , 021110. Silva, R., G. Franca, C. Vilar and J. Alcaniz (2006). Phys. Rev. E, 73, 026102 Sotolongo-Costa, O. and A. Posadas (2004). Phys. Rev. Lett., 92, 048501 Telesca, L. (2012). Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 102,886-891. Tsallis, C. (2009). Introduction to Nonextensive Statistical Mechanics, Approaching a Complex World Springer, New York Vallianatos, F. and P. Sammonds, (2013). Tectonophysics 590, 52-58 Wesnousky, S. G. (1999). Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 89, 1131-1137.

Statistical Modeling of Daily Stream Temperature for Mitigating Fish Mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldwell, R. J.; Rajagopalan, B.

2011-12-01

Water allocations in the Central Valley Project (CVP) of California require the consideration of short- and long-term needs of many socioeconomic factors including, but not limited to, agriculture, urban use, flood mitigation/control, and environmental concerns. The Endangered Species Act (ESA) ensures that the decision-making process provides sufficient water to limit the impact on protected species, such as salmon, in the Sacramento River Valley. Current decision support tools in the CVP were deemed inadequate by the National Marine Fisheries Service due to the limited temporal resolution of forecasts for monthly stream temperature and fish mortality. Finer scale temporal resolution is necessary to account for the stream temperature variations critical to salmon survival and reproduction. In addition, complementary, long-range tools are needed for monthly and seasonal management of water resources. We will present a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) framework of maximum daily stream temperatures and related attributes, such as: daily stream temperature range, exceedance/non-exceedance of critical threshold temperatures, and the number of hours of exceedance. A suite of predictors that impact stream temperatures are included in the models, including current and prior day values of streamflow, water temperatures of upstream releases from Shasta Dam, air temperature, and precipitation. Monthly models are developed for each stream temperature attribute at the Balls Ferry gauge, an EPA compliance point for meeting temperature criteria. The statistical framework is also coupled with seasonal climate forecasts using a stochastic weather generator to provide ensembles of stream temperature scenarios that can be used for seasonal scale water allocation planning and decisions. Short-term weather forecasts can also be used in the framework to provide near-term scenarios useful for making water release decisions on a daily basis. The framework can be easily translated to other locations and is intended to be a complement to the physical stream temperature modeling efforts that are underway on the river.

A general observatory control software framework design for existing small and mid-size telescopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Liang; Lu, Xiao-Meng; Jiang, Xiao-Jun

2015-07-01

A general framework for observatory control software would help to improve the efficiency of observation and operation of telescopes, and would also be advantageous for remote and joint observations. We describe a general framework for observatory control software, which considers principles of flexibility and inheritance to meet the expectations from observers and technical personnel. This framework includes observation scheduling, device control and data storage. The design is based on a finite state machine that controls the whole process.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vrugt, Jasper A; Robinson, Bruce A; Ter Braak, Cajo J F

In recent years, a strong debate has emerged in the hydrologic literature regarding what constitutes an appropriate framework for uncertainty estimation. Particularly, there is strong disagreement whether an uncertainty framework should have its roots within a proper statistical (Bayesian) context, or whether such a framework should be based on a different philosophy and implement informal measures and weaker inference to summarize parameter and predictive distributions. In this paper, we compare a formal Bayesian approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) for assessing uncertainty in conceptual watershed modeling. Our formal Bayesian approach is implemented usingmore » the recently developed differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) MCMC scheme with a likelihood function that explicitly considers model structural, input and parameter uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that DREAM and GLUE can generate very similar estimates of total streamflow uncertainty. This suggests that formal and informal Bayesian approaches have more common ground than the hydrologic literature and ongoing debate might suggest. The main advantage of formal approaches is, however, that they attempt to disentangle the effect of forcing, parameter and model structural error on total predictive uncertainty. This is key to improving hydrologic theory and to better understand and predict the flow of water through catchments.« less

Entropy Production and Fluctuation Theorems for Active Matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandal, Dibyendu; Klymko, Katherine; DeWeese, Michael R.

2017-12-01

Active biological systems reside far from equilibrium, dissipating heat even in their steady state, thus requiring an extension of conventional equilibrium thermodynamics and statistical mechanics. In this Letter, we have extended the emerging framework of stochastic thermodynamics to active matter. In particular, for the active Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model, we have provided consistent definitions of thermodynamic quantities such as work, energy, heat, entropy, and entropy production at the level of single, stochastic trajectories and derived related fluctuation relations. We have developed a generalization of the Clausius inequality, which is valid even in the presence of the non-Hamiltonian dynamics underlying active matter systems. We have illustrated our results with explicit numerical studies.

Relationships among Classical Test Theory and Item Response Theory Frameworks via Factor Analytic Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kohli, Nidhi; Koran, Jennifer; Henn, Lisa

2015-01-01

There are well-defined theoretical differences between the classical test theory (CTT) and item response theory (IRT) frameworks. It is understood that in the CTT framework, person and item statistics are test- and sample-dependent. This is not the perception with IRT. For this reason, the IRT framework is considered to be theoretically superior…

Beyond heat baths II: framework for generalized thermodynamic resource theories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yunger Halpern, Nicole

2018-03-01

Thermodynamics, which describes vast systems, has been reconciled with small scales, relevant to single-molecule experiments, in resource theories. Resource theories have been used to model exchanges of energy and information. Recently, particle exchanges were modeled; and an umbrella family of thermodynamic resource theories was proposed to model diverse baths, interactions, and free energies. This paper motivates and details the family’s structure and prospective applications. How to model electrochemical, gravitational, magnetic, and other thermodynamic systems is explained. Szilárd’s engine and Landauer’s Principle are generalized, as resourcefulness is shown to be convertible not only between information and gravitational energy, but also among diverse degrees of freedom. Extensive variables are associated with quantum operators that might fail to commute, introducing extra nonclassicality into thermodynamic resource theories. An early version of this paper partially motivated the later development of noncommutative thermalization. This generalization expands the theories’ potential for modeling realistic systems with which small-scale statistical mechanics might be tested experimentally.

Generalized Entanglement Entropy and Holography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obregón, O.

2018-04-01

A nonextensive statistical mechanics entropy that depends only on the probability distribution is proposed in the framework of superstatistics. It is based on a Γ(χ 2) distribution that depends on β and also on pl . The corresponding modified von Neumann entropy is constructed; it is shown that it can also be obtained from a generalized Replica trick. We address the question whether the generalized entanglement entropy can play a role in the gauge/gravity duality. We pay attention to 2dCFT and their gravity duals. The correction terms to the von Neumann entropy result more relevant than the usual UV (for c = 1) ones and also than those due to the area dependent AdS 3 entropy which result comparable to the UV ones. Then the correction terms due to the new entropy would modify the Ryu-Takayanagi identification between the CFT entanglement entropy and the AdS entropy in a different manner than the UV ones or than the corrections to the AdS 3 area dependent entropy.

Quality Evaluation of Zirconium Dioxide Frameworks Produced in Five Dental Laboratories from Different Countries.

PubMed

Schneebeli, Esther; Brägger, Urs; Scherrer, Susanne S; Keller, Andrea; Wittneben, Julia G; Hicklin, Stefan P

2017-07-01

The aim of this study was to assess and compare quality as well as economic aspects of CAD/CAM high strength ceramic three-unit FDP frameworks ordered from dental laboratories located in emerging countries and Switzerland. The master casts of six cases were sent to five dental laboratories located in Thailand (Bangkok), China (Peking and Shenzhen), Turkey (Izmir), and Switzerland (Bern). Each laboratory was using a different CAD/CAM system. The clinical fit of the frameworks was qualitatively assessed, and the thickness of the framework material, the connector height, the width, and the diameter were evaluated using a measuring sensor. The analysis of the internal fit of the frameworks was performed by means of a replica technique, whereas the inner and outer surfaces of the frameworks were evaluated for traces of postprocessing and damage to the intaglio surface with light and electronic microscopes. Groups (dental laboratories and cases) were compared for statistically significant differences using Mann-Whitney U-tests after Bonferroni correction. An acceptable clinical fit was found at 97.9% of the margins produced in laboratory E, 87.5% in B, 93.7% in C, 79.2% in A, and 62.5% in D. The mean framework thicknesses were not statistically significantly different for the premolar regions; however, for the molar area 4/8 of the evaluated sites were statistically significantly different. Circumference, surface, and width of the connectors produced in the different laboratories were statistically significantly different but not the height. There were great differences in the designs for the pontic and connector regions, and some of the frameworks would not be recommended for clinical use. Traces of heavy postprocessing were found in frameworks from some of the laboratories. The prices per framework ranged from US$177 to US$896. By ordering laboratory work in developing countries, a considerable price reduction was obtained compared to the price level in Switzerland. Despite the use of the standardized CAD/CAM chains of production in all laboratories, a large variability in the quality aspects, such as clinical marginal fit, connector and pontic design, as well as postprocessing traces was noted. Recommended sound handling of postprocessing was not applied in all laboratories. Dentists should be aware of the true and factitious advantages of CAD/CAM production chains and not lose control over the process. © 2015 by the American College of Prosthodontists.

Crime Scenes and Mystery Players! Using Driving Questions to Support the Development of Statistical Literacy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leavy, Aisling; Hourigan, Mairead

2016-01-01

We argue that the development of statistical literacy is greatly supported by engaging students in carrying out statistical investigations. We describe the use of driving questions and interesting contexts to motivate two statistical investigations. The PPDAC cycle is use as an organizing framework to support the process statistical investigation.

SOCR Analyses – an Instructional Java Web-based Statistical Analysis Toolkit

PubMed Central

Chu, Annie; Cui, Jenny; Dinov, Ivo D.

2011-01-01

The Statistical Online Computational Resource (SOCR) designs web-based tools for educational use in a variety of undergraduate courses (Dinov 2006). Several studies have demonstrated that these resources significantly improve students' motivation and learning experiences (Dinov et al. 2008). SOCR Analyses is a new component that concentrates on data modeling and analysis using parametric and non-parametric techniques supported with graphical model diagnostics. Currently implemented analyses include commonly used models in undergraduate statistics courses like linear models (Simple Linear Regression, Multiple Linear Regression, One-Way and Two-Way ANOVA). In addition, we implemented tests for sample comparisons, such as t-test in the parametric category; and Wilcoxon rank sum test, Kruskal-Wallis test, Friedman's test, in the non-parametric category. SOCR Analyses also include several hypothesis test models, such as Contingency tables, Friedman's test and Fisher's exact test. The code itself is open source (http://socr.googlecode.com/), hoping to contribute to the efforts of the statistical computing community. The code includes functionality for each specific analysis model and it has general utilities that can be applied in various statistical computing tasks. For example, concrete methods with API (Application Programming Interface) have been implemented in statistical summary, least square solutions of general linear models, rank calculations, etc. HTML interfaces, tutorials, source code, activities, and data are freely available via the web (www.SOCR.ucla.edu). Code examples for developers and demos for educators are provided on the SOCR Wiki website. In this article, the pedagogical utilization of the SOCR Analyses is discussed, as well as the underlying design framework. As the SOCR project is on-going and more functions and tools are being added to it, these resources are constantly improved. The reader is strongly encouraged to check the SOCR site for most updated information and newly added models. PMID:21546994

Strategies for Reduced-Order Models in Uncertainty Quantification of Complex Turbulent Dynamical Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Di

Turbulent dynamical systems are ubiquitous in science and engineering. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in turbulent dynamical systems is a grand challenge where the goal is to obtain statistical estimates for key physical quantities. In the development of a proper UQ scheme for systems characterized by both a high-dimensional phase space and a large number of instabilities, significant model errors compared with the true natural signal are always unavoidable due to both the imperfect understanding of the underlying physical processes and the limited computational resources available. One central issue in contemporary research is the development of a systematic methodology for reduced order models that can recover the crucial features both with model fidelity in statistical equilibrium and with model sensitivity in response to perturbations. In the first part, we discuss a general mathematical framework to construct statistically accurate reduced-order models that have skill in capturing the statistical variability in the principal directions of a general class of complex systems with quadratic nonlinearity. A systematic hierarchy of simple statistical closure schemes, which are built through new global statistical energy conservation principles combined with statistical equilibrium fidelity, are designed and tested for UQ of these problems. Second, the capacity of imperfect low-order stochastic approximations to model extreme events in a passive scalar field advected by turbulent flows is investigated. The effects in complicated flow systems are considered including strong nonlinear and non-Gaussian interactions, and much simpler and cheaper imperfect models with model error are constructed to capture the crucial statistical features in the stationary tracer field. Several mathematical ideas are introduced to improve the prediction skill of the imperfect reduced-order models. Most importantly, empirical information theory and statistical linear response theory are applied in the training phase for calibrating model errors to achieve optimal imperfect model parameters; and total statistical energy dynamics are introduced to improve the model sensitivity in the prediction phase especially when strong external perturbations are exerted. The validity of reduced-order models for predicting statistical responses and intermittency is demonstrated on a series of instructive models with increasing complexity, including the stochastic triad model, the Lorenz '96 model, and models for barotropic and baroclinic turbulence. The skillful low-order modeling methods developed here should also be useful for other applications such as efficient algorithms for data assimilation.

Mapping the Energy Cascade in the North Atlantic Ocean: The Coarse-graining Approach

DOE PAGES

Aluie, Hussein; Hecht, Matthew; Vallis, Geoffrey K.

2017-11-14

A coarse-graining framework is implemented to analyze nonlinear processes, measure energy transfer rates and map out the energy pathways from simulated global ocean data. Traditional tools to measure the energy cascade from turbulence theory, such as spectral flux or spectral transfer rely on the assumption of statistical homogeneity, or at least a large separation between the scales of motion and the scales of statistical inhomogeneity. The coarse-graining framework allows for probing the fully nonlinear dynamics simultaneously in scale and in space, and is not restricted by those assumptions. This study describes how the framework can be applied to ocean flows.

Mapping the Energy Cascade in the North Atlantic Ocean: The Coarse-graining Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aluie, Hussein; Hecht, Matthew; Vallis, Geoffrey K.

A coarse-graining framework is implemented to analyze nonlinear processes, measure energy transfer rates and map out the energy pathways from simulated global ocean data. Traditional tools to measure the energy cascade from turbulence theory, such as spectral flux or spectral transfer rely on the assumption of statistical homogeneity, or at least a large separation between the scales of motion and the scales of statistical inhomogeneity. The coarse-graining framework allows for probing the fully nonlinear dynamics simultaneously in scale and in space, and is not restricted by those assumptions. This study describes how the framework can be applied to ocean flows.

Software for Data Analysis with Graphical Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buntine, Wray L.; Roy, H. Scott

1994-01-01

Probabilistic graphical models are being used widely in artificial intelligence and statistics, for instance, in diagnosis and expert systems, as a framework for representing and reasoning with probabilities and independencies. They come with corresponding algorithms for performing statistical inference. This offers a unifying framework for prototyping and/or generating data analysis algorithms from graphical specifications. This paper illustrates the framework with an example and then presents some basic techniques for the task: problem decomposition and the calculation of exact Bayes factors. Other tools already developed, such as automatic differentiation, Gibbs sampling, and use of the EM algorithm, make this a broad basis for the generation of data analysis software.

A general framework for multicharacter segmentation and its application in recognizing multilingual Asian documents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Di; Ding, Xiaoqing

2003-12-01

In this paper we propose a general framework for character segmentation in complex multilingual documents, which is an endeavor to combine the traditionally separated segmentation and recognition processes into a cooperative system. The framework contains three basic steps: Dissection, Local Optimization and Global Optimization, which are designed to fuse various properties of the segmentation hypotheses hierarchically into a composite evaluation to decide the final recognition results. Experimental results show that this framework is general enough to be applied in variety of documents. A sample system based on this framework to recognize Chinese, Japanese and Korean documents and experimental performance is reported finally.

Metrics and Mappings: A Framework for Understanding Real-World Quantitative Estimation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Norman R.; Siegler, Robert S.

1993-01-01

A metrics and mapping framework is proposed to account for how heuristics, domain-specific reasoning, and intuitive statistical induction processes are integrated to generate estimates. Results of 4 experiments involving 188 undergraduates illustrate framework usefulness and suggest when people use heuristics and when they emphasize…

scoringRules - A software package for probabilistic model evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lerch, Sebastian; Jordan, Alexander; Krüger, Fabian

2016-04-01

Models in the geosciences are generally surrounded by uncertainty, and being able to quantify this uncertainty is key to good decision making. Accordingly, probabilistic forecasts in the form of predictive distributions have become popular over the last decades. With the proliferation of probabilistic models arises the need for decision theoretically principled tools to evaluate the appropriateness of models and forecasts in a generalized way. Various scoring rules have been developed over the past decades to address this demand. Proper scoring rules are functions S(F,y) which evaluate the accuracy of a forecast distribution F , given that an outcome y was observed. As such, they allow to compare alternative models, a crucial ability given the variety of theories, data sources and statistical specifications that is available in many situations. This poster presents the software package scoringRules for the statistical programming language R, which contains functions to compute popular scoring rules such as the continuous ranked probability score for a variety of distributions F that come up in applied work. Two main classes are parametric distributions like normal, t, or gamma distributions, and distributions that are not known analytically, but are indirectly described through a sample of simulation draws. For example, Bayesian forecasts produced via Markov Chain Monte Carlo take this form. Thereby, the scoringRules package provides a framework for generalized model evaluation that both includes Bayesian as well as classical parametric models. The scoringRules package aims to be a convenient dictionary-like reference for computing scoring rules. We offer state of the art implementations of several known (but not routinely applied) formulas, and implement closed-form expressions that were previously unavailable. Whenever more than one implementation variant exists, we offer statistically principled default choices.

A Statistical Framework for the Functional Analysis of Metagenomes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sharon, Itai; Pati, Amrita; Markowitz, Victor

2008-10-01

Metagenomic studies consider the genetic makeup of microbial communities as a whole, rather than their individual member organisms. The functional and metabolic potential of microbial communities can be analyzed by comparing the relative abundance of gene families in their collective genomic sequences (metagenome) under different conditions. Such comparisons require accurate estimation of gene family frequencies. They present a statistical framework for assessing these frequencies based on the Lander-Waterman theory developed originally for Whole Genome Shotgun (WGS) sequencing projects. They also provide a novel method for assessing the reliability of the estimations which can be used for removing seemingly unreliable measurements.more » They tested their method on a wide range of datasets, including simulated genomes and real WGS data from sequencing projects of whole genomes. Results suggest that their framework corrects inherent biases in accepted methods and provides a good approximation to the true statistics of gene families in WGS projects.« less

Quantum mechanics as classical statistical mechanics with an ontic extension and an epistemic restriction.

PubMed

Budiyono, Agung; Rohrlich, Daniel

2017-11-03

Where does quantum mechanics part ways with classical mechanics? How does quantum randomness differ fundamentally from classical randomness? We cannot fully explain how the theories differ until we can derive them within a single axiomatic framework, allowing an unambiguous account of how one theory is the limit of the other. Here we derive non-relativistic quantum mechanics and classical statistical mechanics within a common framework. The common axioms include conservation of average energy and conservation of probability current. But two axioms distinguish quantum mechanics from classical statistical mechanics: an "ontic extension" defines a nonseparable (global) random variable that generates physical correlations, and an "epistemic restriction" constrains allowed phase space distributions. The ontic extension and epistemic restriction, with strength on the order of Planck's constant, imply quantum entanglement and uncertainty relations. This framework suggests that the wave function is epistemic, yet it does not provide an ontic dynamics for individual systems.

Foundational Principles for Large-Scale Inference: Illustrations Through Correlation Mining.

PubMed

Hero, Alfred O; Rajaratnam, Bala

2016-01-01

When can reliable inference be drawn in fue "Big Data" context? This paper presents a framework for answering this fundamental question in the context of correlation mining, wifu implications for general large scale inference. In large scale data applications like genomics, connectomics, and eco-informatics fue dataset is often variable-rich but sample-starved: a regime where the number n of acquired samples (statistical replicates) is far fewer than fue number p of observed variables (genes, neurons, voxels, or chemical constituents). Much of recent work has focused on understanding the computational complexity of proposed methods for "Big Data". Sample complexity however has received relatively less attention, especially in the setting when the sample size n is fixed, and the dimension p grows without bound. To address fuis gap, we develop a unified statistical framework that explicitly quantifies the sample complexity of various inferential tasks. Sampling regimes can be divided into several categories: 1) the classical asymptotic regime where fue variable dimension is fixed and fue sample size goes to infinity; 2) the mixed asymptotic regime where both variable dimension and sample size go to infinity at comparable rates; 3) the purely high dimensional asymptotic regime where the variable dimension goes to infinity and the sample size is fixed. Each regime has its niche but only the latter regime applies to exa cale data dimension. We illustrate this high dimensional framework for the problem of correlation mining, where it is the matrix of pairwise and partial correlations among the variables fua t are of interest. Correlation mining arises in numerous applications and subsumes the regression context as a special case. we demonstrate various regimes of correlation mining based on the unifying perspective of high dimensional learning rates and sample complexity for different structured covariance models and different inference tasks.

A theoretical Gaussian framework for anomalous change detection in hyperspectral images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acito, Nicola; Diani, Marco; Corsini, Giovanni

2017-10-01

Exploitation of temporal series of hyperspectral images is a relatively new discipline that has a wide variety of possible applications in fields like remote sensing, area surveillance, defense and security, search and rescue and so on. In this work, we discuss how images taken at two different times can be processed to detect changes caused by insertion, deletion or displacement of small objects in the monitored scene. This problem is known in the literature as anomalous change detection (ACD) and it can be viewed as the extension, to the multitemporal case, of the well-known anomaly detection problem in a single image. In fact, in both cases, the hyperspectral images are processed blindly in an unsupervised manner and without a-priori knowledge about the target spectrum. We introduce the ACD problem using an approach based on the statistical decision theory and we derive a common framework including different ACD approaches. Particularly, we clearly define the observation space, the data statistical distribution conditioned to the two competing hypotheses and the procedure followed to come with the solution. The proposed overview places emphasis on techniques based on the multivariate Gaussian model that allows a formal presentation of the ACD problem and the rigorous derivation of the possible solutions in a way that is both mathematically more tractable and easier to interpret. We also discuss practical problems related to the application of the detectors in the real world and present affordable solutions. Namely, we describe the ACD processing chain including the strategies that are commonly adopted to compensate pervasive radiometric changes, caused by the different illumination/atmospheric conditions, and to mitigate the residual geometric image co-registration errors. Results obtained on real freely available data are discussed in order to test and compare the methods within the proposed general framework.

When is Chemical Similarity Significant? The Statistical Distribution of Chemical Similarity Scores and Its Extreme Values

PubMed Central

Baldi, Pierre

2010-01-01

As repositories of chemical molecules continue to expand and become more open, it becomes increasingly important to develop tools to search them efficiently and assess the statistical significance of chemical similarity scores. Here we develop a general framework for understanding, modeling, predicting, and approximating the distribution of chemical similarity scores and its extreme values in large databases. The framework can be applied to different chemical representations and similarity measures but is demonstrated here using the most common binary fingerprints with the Tanimoto similarity measure. After introducing several probabilistic models of fingerprints, including the Conditional Gaussian Uniform model, we show that the distribution of Tanimoto scores can be approximated by the distribution of the ratio of two correlated Normal random variables associated with the corresponding unions and intersections. This remains true also when the distribution of similarity scores is conditioned on the size of the query molecules in order to derive more fine-grained results and improve chemical retrieval. The corresponding extreme value distributions for the maximum scores are approximated by Weibull distributions. From these various distributions and their analytical forms, Z-scores, E-values, and p-values are derived to assess the significance of similarity scores. In addition, the framework allows one to predict also the value of standard chemical retrieval metrics, such as Sensitivity and Specificity at fixed thresholds, or ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curves at multiple thresholds, and to detect outliers in the form of atypical molecules. Numerous and diverse experiments carried in part with large sets of molecules from the ChemDB show remarkable agreement between theory and empirical results. PMID:20540577

A Query Expansion Framework in Image Retrieval Domain Based on Local and Global Analysis

PubMed Central

Rahman, M. M.; Antani, S. K.; Thoma, G. R.

2011-01-01

We present an image retrieval framework based on automatic query expansion in a concept feature space by generalizing the vector space model of information retrieval. In this framework, images are represented by vectors of weighted concepts similar to the keyword-based representation used in text retrieval. To generate the concept vocabularies, a statistical model is built by utilizing Support Vector Machine (SVM)-based classification techniques. The images are represented as “bag of concepts” that comprise perceptually and/or semantically distinguishable color and texture patches from local image regions in a multi-dimensional feature space. To explore the correlation between the concepts and overcome the assumption of feature independence in this model, we propose query expansion techniques in the image domain from a new perspective based on both local and global analysis. For the local analysis, the correlations between the concepts based on the co-occurrence pattern, and the metrical constraints based on the neighborhood proximity between the concepts in encoded images, are analyzed by considering local feedback information. We also analyze the concept similarities in the collection as a whole in the form of a similarity thesaurus and propose an efficient query expansion based on the global analysis. The experimental results on a photographic collection of natural scenes and a biomedical database of different imaging modalities demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework in terms of precision and recall. PMID:21822350

Quantifying heterogeneity attributable to polythetic diagnostic criteria: theoretical framework and empirical application.

PubMed

Olbert, Charles M; Gala, Gary J; Tupler, Larry A

2014-05-01

Heterogeneity within psychiatric disorders is both theoretically and practically problematic: For many disorders, it is possible for 2 individuals to share very few or even no symptoms in common yet share the same diagnosis. Polythetic diagnostic criteria have long been recognized to contribute to this heterogeneity, yet no unified theoretical understanding of the coherence of symptom criteria sets currently exists. A general framework for analyzing the logical and mathematical structure, coherence, and diversity of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual diagnostic categories (DSM-5 and DSM-IV-TR) is proposed, drawing from combinatorial mathematics, set theory, and information theory. Theoretical application of this framework to 18 diagnostic categories indicates that in most categories, 2 individuals with the same diagnosis may share no symptoms in common, and that any 2 theoretically possible symptom combinations will share on average less than half their symptoms. Application of this framework to 2 large empirical datasets indicates that patients who meet symptom criteria for major depressive disorder and posttraumatic stress disorder tend to share approximately three-fifths of symptoms in common. For both disorders in each of the datasets, pairs of individuals who shared no common symptoms were observed. Any 2 individuals with either diagnosis were unlikely to exhibit identical symptomatology. The theoretical and empirical results stemming from this approach have substantive implications for etiological research into, and measurement of, psychiatric disorders.

Research in image management and access

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vondran, Raymond F.; Barron, Billy J.

1993-01-01

Presently, the problem of over-all library system design has been compounded by the accretion of both function and structure to a basic framework of requirements. While more device power has led to increased functionality, opportunities for reducing system complexity at the user interface level have not always been pursued with equal zeal. The purpose of this book is therefore to set forth and examine these opportunities, within the general framework of human factors research in man-machine interfaces. Human factors may be viewed as a series of trade-off decisions among four polarized objectives: machine resources and user specifications; functionality and user requirements. In the past, a limiting factor was the availability of systems. However, in the last two years, over one hundred libraries supported by many different software configurations have been added to the Internet. This document includes a statistical analysis of human responses to five Internet library systems by key features, development of the ideal online catalog system, and ideal online catalog systems for libraries and information centers.

Inequality reversal: Effects of the savings propensity and correlated returns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakrabarti, Anindya S.; Chakrabarti, Bikas K.

2010-09-01

In the last decade, a large body of literature has been developed to explain the universal features of inequality in terms of income and wealth. By now, it is established that the distributions of income and wealth in various economies show a number of statistical regularities. There are several models to explain such static features of inequality in a unifying framework, and the kinetic exchange models in particular provide one such framework. Here we focus on the dynamic features of inequality. In the process of development and growth, inequality in an economy in terms of income and wealth follows a particular pattern of rising in the initial stage followed by an eventual fall. This inverted U-shaped curve is known as the Kuznets Curve. We examine the possibilities of such behavior of an economy in the context of a generalized kinetic exchange model. It is shown that under some specific conditions, our model economy indeed shows inequality reversal.

A permutation testing framework to compare groups of brain networks.

PubMed

Simpson, Sean L; Lyday, Robert G; Hayasaka, Satoru; Marsh, Anthony P; Laurienti, Paul J

2013-01-01

Brain network analyses have moved to the forefront of neuroimaging research over the last decade. However, methods for statistically comparing groups of networks have lagged behind. These comparisons have great appeal for researchers interested in gaining further insight into complex brain function and how it changes across different mental states and disease conditions. Current comparison approaches generally either rely on a summary metric or on mass-univariate nodal or edge-based comparisons that ignore the inherent topological properties of the network, yielding little power and failing to make network level comparisons. Gleaning deeper insights into normal and abnormal changes in complex brain function demands methods that take advantage of the wealth of data present in an entire brain network. Here we propose a permutation testing framework that allows comparing groups of networks while incorporating topological features inherent in each individual network. We validate our approach using simulated data with known group differences. We then apply the method to functional brain networks derived from fMRI data.

Nemo: an evolutionary and population genetics programming framework.

PubMed

Guillaume, Frédéric; Rougemont, Jacques

2006-10-15

Nemo is an individual-based, genetically explicit and stochastic population computer program for the simulation of population genetics and life-history trait evolution in a metapopulation context. It comes as both a C++ programming framework and an executable program file. Its object-oriented programming design gives it the flexibility and extensibility needed to implement a large variety of forward-time evolutionary models. It provides developers with abstract models allowing them to implement their own life-history traits and life-cycle events. Nemo offers a large panel of population models, from the Island model to lattice models with demographic or environmental stochasticity and a variety of already implemented traits (deleterious mutations, neutral markers and more), life-cycle events (mating, dispersal, aging, selection, etc.) and output operators for saving data and statistics. It runs on all major computer platforms including parallel computing environments. The source code, binaries and documentation are available under the GNU General Public License at http://nemo2.sourceforge.net.

QTest: Quantitative Testing of Theories of Binary Choice

PubMed Central

Regenwetter, Michel; Davis-Stober, Clintin P.; Lim, Shiau Hong; Guo, Ying; Popova, Anna; Zwilling, Chris; Cha, Yun-Shil; Messner, William

2014-01-01

The goal of this paper is to make modeling and quantitative testing accessible to behavioral decision researchers interested in substantive questions. We provide a novel, rigorous, yet very general, quantitative diagnostic framework for testing theories of binary choice. This permits the nontechnical scholar to proceed far beyond traditionally rather superficial methods of analysis, and it permits the quantitatively savvy scholar to triage theoretical proposals before investing effort into complex and specialized quantitative analyses. Our theoretical framework links static algebraic decision theory with observed variability in behavioral binary choice data. The paper is supplemented with a custom-designed public-domain statistical analysis package, the QTest software. We illustrate our approach with a quantitative analysis using published laboratory data, including tests of novel versions of “Random Cumulative Prospect Theory.” A major asset of the approach is the potential to distinguish decision makers who have a fixed preference and commit errors in observed choices from decision makers who waver in their preferences. PMID:24999495

Structural Equation Modeling: A Framework for Ocular and Other Medical Sciences Research

PubMed Central

Christ, Sharon L.; Lee, David J.; Lam, Byron L.; Diane, Zheng D.

2017-01-01

Structural equation modeling (SEM) is a modeling framework that encompasses many types of statistical models and can accommodate a variety of estimation and testing methods. SEM has been used primarily in social sciences but is increasingly used in epidemiology, public health, and the medical sciences. SEM provides many advantages for the analysis of survey and clinical data, including the ability to model latent constructs that may not be directly observable. Another major feature is simultaneous estimation of parameters in systems of equations that may include mediated relationships, correlated dependent variables, and in some instances feedback relationships. SEM allows for the specification of theoretically holistic models because multiple and varied relationships may be estimated together in the same model. SEM has recently expanded by adding generalized linear modeling capabilities that include the simultaneous estimation of parameters of different functional form for outcomes with different distributions in the same model. Therefore, mortality modeling and other relevant health outcomes may be evaluated. Random effects estimation using latent variables has been advanced in the SEM literature and software. In addition, SEM software has increased estimation options. Therefore, modern SEM is quite general and includes model types frequently used by health researchers, including generalized linear modeling, mixed effects linear modeling, and population average modeling. This article does not present any new information. It is meant as an introduction to SEM and its uses in ocular and other health research. PMID:24467557

A Discrete Approximation Framework for Hereditary Systems.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-05-01

schemes which are included in the general framework and which may be implemented directly on high-speed computing machines are developed. A numerical...an appropriately chosen Hilbert space. We then proceed to develop general approximation schemes for the solutions to the homogeneous AEE which in turn...rich classes of these schemes . In addition, two particular families of approximation schemes included in the general framework are developed and

Control of Distributed Parameter Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-08-01

vari- ant of the general Lotka - Volterra model for interspecific competition. The variant described the emergence of one subpopulation from another as a...distribut ion unlimited. I&. ARSTRACT (MAUMUnw2O1 A unified arioroximation framework for Parameter estimation In general linear POE models has been completed...unified approximation framework for parameter estimation in general linear PDE models. This framework has provided the theoretical basis for a number of

Bayesian Reconstruction of Disease Outbreaks by Combining Epidemiologic and Genomic Data

PubMed Central

Jombart, Thibaut; Cori, Anne; Didelot, Xavier; Cauchemez, Simon; Fraser, Christophe; Ferguson, Neil

2014-01-01

Recent years have seen progress in the development of statistically rigorous frameworks to infer outbreak transmission trees (“who infected whom”) from epidemiological and genetic data. Making use of pathogen genome sequences in such analyses remains a challenge, however, with a variety of heuristic approaches having been explored to date. We introduce a statistical method exploiting both pathogen sequences and collection dates to unravel the dynamics of densely sampled outbreaks. Our approach identifies likely transmission events and infers dates of infections, unobserved cases and separate introductions of the disease. It also proves useful for inferring numbers of secondary infections and identifying heterogeneous infectivity and super-spreaders. After testing our approach using simulations, we illustrate the method with the analysis of the beginning of the 2003 Singaporean outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), providing new insights into the early stage of this epidemic. Our approach is the first tool for disease outbreak reconstruction from genetic data widely available as free software, the R package outbreaker. It is applicable to various densely sampled epidemics, and improves previous approaches by detecting unobserved and imported cases, as well as allowing multiple introductions of the pathogen. Because of its generality, we believe this method will become a tool of choice for the analysis of densely sampled disease outbreaks, and will form a rigorous framework for subsequent methodological developments. PMID:24465202

Stochastic reduced order models for inverse problems under uncertainty

PubMed Central

Warner, James E.; Aquino, Wilkins; Grigoriu, Mircea D.

2014-01-01

This work presents a novel methodology for solving inverse problems under uncertainty using stochastic reduced order models (SROMs). Given statistical information about an observed state variable in a system, unknown parameters are estimated probabilistically through the solution of a model-constrained, stochastic optimization problem. The point of departure and crux of the proposed framework is the representation of a random quantity using a SROM - a low dimensional, discrete approximation to a continuous random element that permits e cient and non-intrusive stochastic computations. Characterizing the uncertainties with SROMs transforms the stochastic optimization problem into a deterministic one. The non-intrusive nature of SROMs facilitates e cient gradient computations for random vector unknowns and relies entirely on calls to existing deterministic solvers. Furthermore, the method is naturally extended to handle multiple sources of uncertainty in cases where state variable data, system parameters, and boundary conditions are all considered random. The new and widely-applicable SROM framework is formulated for a general stochastic optimization problem in terms of an abstract objective function and constraining model. For demonstration purposes, however, we study its performance in the specific case of inverse identification of random material parameters in elastodynamics. We demonstrate the ability to efficiently recover random shear moduli given material displacement statistics as input data. We also show that the approach remains effective for the case where the loading in the problem is random as well. PMID:25558115

A Unifying Framework for Teaching Nonparametric Statistical Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bargagliotti, Anna E.; Orrison, Michael E.

2014-01-01

Increased importance is being placed on statistics at both the K-12 and undergraduate level. Research divulging effective methods to teach specific statistical concepts is still widely sought after. In this paper, we focus on best practices for teaching topics in nonparametric statistics at the undergraduate level. To motivate the work, we…

Survey of Native English Speakers and Spanish-Speaking English Language Learners in Tertiary Introductory Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lesser, Lawrence M.; Wagler, Amy E.; Esquinca, Alberto; Valenzuela, M. Guadalupe

2013-01-01

The framework of linguistic register and case study research on Spanish-speaking English language learners (ELLs) learning statistics informed the construction of a quantitative instrument, the Communication, Language, And Statistics Survey (CLASS). CLASS aims to assess whether ELLs and non-ELLs approach the learning of statistics differently with…

Using GAISE and NCTM Standards as Frameworks for Teaching Probability and Statistics to Pre-Service Elementary and Middle School Mathematics Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Metz, Mary Louise

2010-01-01

Statistics education has become an increasingly important component of the mathematics education of today's citizens. In part to address the call for a more statistically literate citizenship, The "Guidelines for Assessment and Instruction in Statistics Education (GAISE)" were developed in 2005 by the American Statistical Association. These…

Inferring Demographic History Using Two-Locus Statistics.

PubMed

Ragsdale, Aaron P; Gutenkunst, Ryan N

2017-06-01

Population demographic history may be learned from contemporary genetic variation data. Methods based on aggregating the statistics of many single loci into an allele frequency spectrum (AFS) have proven powerful, but such methods ignore potentially informative patterns of linkage disequilibrium (LD) between neighboring loci. To leverage such patterns, we developed a composite-likelihood framework for inferring demographic history from aggregated statistics of pairs of loci. Using this framework, we show that two-locus statistics are more sensitive to demographic history than single-locus statistics such as the AFS. In particular, two-locus statistics escape the notorious confounding of depth and duration of a bottleneck, and they provide a means to estimate effective population size based on the recombination rather than mutation rate. We applied our approach to a Zambian population of Drosophila melanogaster Notably, using both single- and two-locus statistics, we inferred a substantially lower ancestral effective population size than previous works and did not infer a bottleneck history. Together, our results demonstrate the broad potential for two-locus statistics to enable powerful population genetic inference. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

Corra: Computational framework and tools for LC-MS discovery and targeted mass spectrometry-based proteomics

PubMed Central

Brusniak, Mi-Youn; Bodenmiller, Bernd; Campbell, David; Cooke, Kelly; Eddes, James; Garbutt, Andrew; Lau, Hollis; Letarte, Simon; Mueller, Lukas N; Sharma, Vagisha; Vitek, Olga; Zhang, Ning; Aebersold, Ruedi; Watts, Julian D

2008-01-01

Background Quantitative proteomics holds great promise for identifying proteins that are differentially abundant between populations representing different physiological or disease states. A range of computational tools is now available for both isotopically labeled and label-free liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (LC-MS) based quantitative proteomics. However, they are generally not comparable to each other in terms of functionality, user interfaces, information input/output, and do not readily facilitate appropriate statistical data analysis. These limitations, along with the array of choices, present a daunting prospect for biologists, and other researchers not trained in bioinformatics, who wish to use LC-MS-based quantitative proteomics. Results We have developed Corra, a computational framework and tools for discovery-based LC-MS proteomics. Corra extends and adapts existing algorithms used for LC-MS-based proteomics, and statistical algorithms, originally developed for microarray data analyses, appropriate for LC-MS data analysis. Corra also adapts software engineering technologies (e.g. Google Web Toolkit, distributed processing) so that computationally intense data processing and statistical analyses can run on a remote server, while the user controls and manages the process from their own computer via a simple web interface. Corra also allows the user to output significantly differentially abundant LC-MS-detected peptide features in a form compatible with subsequent sequence identification via tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS). We present two case studies to illustrate the application of Corra to commonly performed LC-MS-based biological workflows: a pilot biomarker discovery study of glycoproteins isolated from human plasma samples relevant to type 2 diabetes, and a study in yeast to identify in vivo targets of the protein kinase Ark1 via phosphopeptide profiling. Conclusion The Corra computational framework leverages computational innovation to enable biologists or other researchers to process, analyze and visualize LC-MS data with what would otherwise be a complex and not user-friendly suite of tools. Corra enables appropriate statistical analyses, with controlled false-discovery rates, ultimately to inform subsequent targeted identification of differentially abundant peptides by MS/MS. For the user not trained in bioinformatics, Corra represents a complete, customizable, free and open source computational platform enabling LC-MS-based proteomic workflows, and as such, addresses an unmet need in the LC-MS proteomics field. PMID:19087345

The Entropy of Non-Ergodic Complex Systems — a Derivation from First Principles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thurner, Stefan; Hanel, Rudolf

In information theory the 4 Shannon-Khinchin1,2 (SK) axioms determine Boltzmann Gibbs entropy, S -∑i pilog pi, as the unique entropy. Physics is different from information in the sense that physical systems can be non-ergodic or non-Markovian. To characterize such strongly interacting, statistical systems - complex systems in particular - within a thermodynamical framework it might be necessary to introduce generalized entropies. A series of such entropies have been proposed in the past decades. Until now the understanding of their fundamental origin and their deeper relations to complex systems remains unclear. To clarify the situation we note that non-ergodicity explicitly violates the fourth SK axiom. We show that by relaxing this axiom the entropy generalizes to, S ∑i Γ(d + 1, 1 - c log pi), where Γ is the incomplete Gamma function, and c and d are scaling exponents. All recently proposed entropies compatible with the first 3 SK axioms appear to be special cases. We prove that each statistical system is uniquely characterized by the pair of the two scaling exponents (c, d), which defines equivalence classes for all systems. The corresponding distribution functions are special forms of Lambert-W exponentials containing, as special cases, Boltzmann, stretched exponential and Tsallis distributions (power-laws) - all widely abundant in nature. This derivation is the first ab initio justification for generalized entropies. We next show how the phasespace volume of a system is related to its generalized entropy, and provide a concise criterion when it is not of Boltzmann-Gibbs type but assumes a generalized form. We show that generalized entropies only become relevant when the dynamically (statistically) relevant fraction of degrees of freedom in a system vanishes in the thermodynamic limit. These are systems where the bulk of the degrees of freedom is frozen. Systems governed by generalized entropies are therefore systems whose phasespace volume effectively collapses to a lower-dimensional 'surface'. We explicitly illustrate the situation for accelerating random walks, and a spin system on a constant-conectancy network. We argue that generalized entropies should be relevant for self-organized critical systems such as sand piles, for spin systems which form meta-structures such as vortices, domains, instantons, etc., and for problems associated with anomalous diffusion.

Spatio-Chromatic Adaptation via Higher-Order Canonical Correlation Analysis of Natural Images

PubMed Central

Gutmann, Michael U.; Laparra, Valero; Hyvärinen, Aapo; Malo, Jesús

2014-01-01

Independent component and canonical correlation analysis are two general-purpose statistical methods with wide applicability. In neuroscience, independent component analysis of chromatic natural images explains the spatio-chromatic structure of primary cortical receptive fields in terms of properties of the visual environment. Canonical correlation analysis explains similarly chromatic adaptation to different illuminations. But, as we show in this paper, neither of the two methods generalizes well to explain both spatio-chromatic processing and adaptation at the same time. We propose a statistical method which combines the desirable properties of independent component and canonical correlation analysis: It finds independent components in each data set which, across the two data sets, are related to each other via linear or higher-order correlations. The new method is as widely applicable as canonical correlation analysis, and also to more than two data sets. We call it higher-order canonical correlation analysis. When applied to chromatic natural images, we found that it provides a single (unified) statistical framework which accounts for both spatio-chromatic processing and adaptation. Filters with spatio-chromatic tuning properties as in the primary visual cortex emerged and corresponding-colors psychophysics was reproduced reasonably well. We used the new method to make a theory-driven testable prediction on how the neural response to colored patterns should change when the illumination changes. We predict shifts in the responses which are comparable to the shifts reported for chromatic contrast habituation. PMID:24533049

Spatio-chromatic adaptation via higher-order canonical correlation analysis of natural images.

PubMed

Gutmann, Michael U; Laparra, Valero; Hyvärinen, Aapo; Malo, Jesús

2014-01-01

Independent component and canonical correlation analysis are two general-purpose statistical methods with wide applicability. In neuroscience, independent component analysis of chromatic natural images explains the spatio-chromatic structure of primary cortical receptive fields in terms of properties of the visual environment. Canonical correlation analysis explains similarly chromatic adaptation to different illuminations. But, as we show in this paper, neither of the two methods generalizes well to explain both spatio-chromatic processing and adaptation at the same time. We propose a statistical method which combines the desirable properties of independent component and canonical correlation analysis: It finds independent components in each data set which, across the two data sets, are related to each other via linear or higher-order correlations. The new method is as widely applicable as canonical correlation analysis, and also to more than two data sets. We call it higher-order canonical correlation analysis. When applied to chromatic natural images, we found that it provides a single (unified) statistical framework which accounts for both spatio-chromatic processing and adaptation. Filters with spatio-chromatic tuning properties as in the primary visual cortex emerged and corresponding-colors psychophysics was reproduced reasonably well. We used the new method to make a theory-driven testable prediction on how the neural response to colored patterns should change when the illumination changes. We predict shifts in the responses which are comparable to the shifts reported for chromatic contrast habituation.

Computational statistics using the Bayesian Inference Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weinberg, Martin D.

2013-09-01

This paper introduces the Bayesian Inference Engine (BIE), a general parallel, optimized software package for parameter inference and model selection. This package is motivated by the analysis needs of modern astronomical surveys and the need to organize and reuse expensive derived data. The BIE is the first platform for computational statistics designed explicitly to enable Bayesian update and model comparison for astronomical problems. Bayesian update is based on the representation of high-dimensional posterior distributions using metric-ball-tree based kernel density estimation. Among its algorithmic offerings, the BIE emphasizes hybrid tempered Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes that robustly sample multimodal posterior distributions in high-dimensional parameter spaces. Moreover, the BIE implements a full persistence or serialization system that stores the full byte-level image of the running inference and previously characterized posterior distributions for later use. Two new algorithms to compute the marginal likelihood from the posterior distribution, developed for and implemented in the BIE, enable model comparison for complex models and data sets. Finally, the BIE was designed to be a collaborative platform for applying Bayesian methodology to astronomy. It includes an extensible object-oriented and easily extended framework that implements every aspect of the Bayesian inference. By providing a variety of statistical algorithms for all phases of the inference problem, a scientist may explore a variety of approaches with a single model and data implementation. Additional technical details and download details are available from http://www.astro.umass.edu/bie. The BIE is distributed under the GNU General Public License.

The Jarzynski identity derived from general Hamiltonian or non-Hamiltonian dynamics reproducing NVT or NPT ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuendet, Michel A.

2006-10-01

The Jarzynski identity (JI) relates nonequilibrium work averages to thermodynamic free energy differences. It was shown in a recent contribution [M. A. Cuendet, Phys. Rev. Lett. 96, 120602 (2006)] that the JI can, in particular, be derived directly from the Nosé-Hoover thermostated dynamics. This statistical mechanical derivation is particularly relevant in the framework of molecular dynamics simulation, because it is based solely on the equations of motion considered and is free of any additional assumptions on system size or bath coupling. Here, this result is generalized to a variety of dynamics, along two directions. On the one hand, specific improved thermostating schemes used in practical applications are treated. These include Nosé-Hoover chains, higher moment thermostats, as well as an isothermal-isobaric scheme yielding the JI in the NPT ensemble. On the other hand, the theoretical generality of the new derivation is explored. Generic dynamics with arbitrary coupling terms and an arbitrary number of thermostating variables, both non-Hamiltonian and Hamiltonian, are shown to imply the JI. In particular, a nonautonomous formulation of the generalized Nosé-Poincaré thermostat is proposed. Finally, general conditions required for the JI derivation are briefly discussed.

Generalized Multilevel Structural Equation Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia; Skrondal, Anders; Pickles, Andrew

2004-01-01

A unifying framework for generalized multilevel structural equation modeling is introduced. The models in the framework, called generalized linear latent and mixed models (GLLAMM), combine features of generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) and structural equation models (SEM) and consist of a response model and a structural model for the latent…

The origin of risk aversion

PubMed Central

Zhang, Ruixun; Brennan, Thomas J.; Lo, Andrew W.

2014-01-01

Risk aversion is one of the most basic assumptions of economic behavior, but few studies have addressed the question of where risk preferences come from and why they differ from one individual to the next. Here, we propose an evolutionary explanation for the origin of risk aversion. In the context of a simple binary-choice model, we show that risk aversion emerges by natural selection if reproductive risk is systematic (i.e., correlated across individuals in a given generation). In contrast, risk neutrality emerges if reproductive risk is idiosyncratic (i.e., uncorrelated across each given generation). More generally, our framework implies that the degree of risk aversion is determined by the stochastic nature of reproductive rates, and we show that different statistical properties lead to different utility functions. The simplicity and generality of our model suggest that these implications are primitive and cut across species, physiology, and genetic origins. PMID:25453072

General purpose graphic processing unit implementation of adaptive pulse compression algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Jingxiao; Zhang, Yan

2017-07-01

This study introduces a practical approach to implement real-time signal processing algorithms for general surveillance radar based on NVIDIA graphical processing units (GPUs). The pulse compression algorithms are implemented using compute unified device architecture (CUDA) libraries such as CUDA basic linear algebra subroutines and CUDA fast Fourier transform library, which are adopted from open source libraries and optimized for the NVIDIA GPUs. For more advanced, adaptive processing algorithms such as adaptive pulse compression, customized kernel optimization is needed and investigated. A statistical optimization approach is developed for this purpose without needing much knowledge of the physical configurations of the kernels. It was found that the kernel optimization approach can significantly improve the performance. Benchmark performance is compared with the CPU performance in terms of processing accelerations. The proposed implementation framework can be used in various radar systems including ground-based phased array radar, airborne sense and avoid radar, and aerospace surveillance radar.

Stochastic foundations of undulatory transport phenomena: generalized Poisson-Kac processes—part III extensions and applications to kinetic theory and transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giona, Massimiliano; Brasiello, Antonio; Crescitelli, Silvestro

2017-08-01

This third part extends the theory of Generalized Poisson-Kac (GPK) processes to nonlinear stochastic models and to a continuum of states. Nonlinearity is treated in two ways: (i) as a dependence of the parameters (intensity of the stochastic velocity, transition rates) of the stochastic perturbation on the state variable, similarly to the case of nonlinear Langevin equations, and (ii) as the dependence of the stochastic microdynamic equations of motion on the statistical description of the process itself (nonlinear Fokker-Planck-Kac models). Several numerical and physical examples illustrate the theory. Gathering nonlinearity and a continuum of states, GPK theory provides a stochastic derivation of the nonlinear Boltzmann equation, furnishing a positive answer to the Kac’s program in kinetic theory. The transition from stochastic microdynamics to transport theory within the framework of the GPK paradigm is also addressed.

Retrieving Mesoscale Vertical Velocities along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current from a Combination of Satellite and In Situ Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buongiorno Nardelli, B.; Iudicone, D.; Cotroneo, Y.; Zambianchi, E.; Rio, M. H.

2016-02-01

In the framework of the Italian National Program on Antarctic Research (PNRA), an analysis of the mesoscale dynamics along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current has been carried out starting from a combination of satellite and in situ observations. More specifically, state-of-the-art statistical techniques have been used to combine remotely-sensed sea surface temperature, salinity and absolute dynamical topography with in situ Argo data, providing mesoscale-resolving 3D tracers and geostrophic velocity fields. The 3D reconstruction has been validated with independent data collected during PNRA surveys. These data are then used to diagnose the vertical exchanges in the Southern Ocean through a generalized version of the Omega equation. Intense vertical motion (O(100 m/day)) is found along the ACC, upstream/downstream of its meanders, and within mesoscale eddies, where multipolar vertical velocity patterns are generally observed.

The origin of risk aversion.

PubMed

Zhang, Ruixun; Brennan, Thomas J; Lo, Andrew W

2014-12-16

Risk aversion is one of the most basic assumptions of economic behavior, but few studies have addressed the question of where risk preferences come from and why they differ from one individual to the next. Here, we propose an evolutionary explanation for the origin of risk aversion. In the context of a simple binary-choice model, we show that risk aversion emerges by natural selection if reproductive risk is systematic (i.e., correlated across individuals in a given generation). In contrast, risk neutrality emerges if reproductive risk is idiosyncratic (i.e., uncorrelated across each given generation). More generally, our framework implies that the degree of risk aversion is determined by the stochastic nature of reproductive rates, and we show that different statistical properties lead to different utility functions. The simplicity and generality of our model suggest that these implications are primitive and cut across species, physiology, and genetic origins.

A Framework for Authenticity in the Mathematics and Statistics Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garrett, Lauretta; Huang, Li; Charleton, Maria Calhoun

2016-01-01

Authenticity is a term commonly used in reference to pedagogical and curricular qualities of mathematics teaching and learning, but its use lacks a coherent framework. The work of researchers in engineering education provides such a framework. Authentic qualities of mathematics teaching and learning are fit within a model described by Strobel,…

Statistical testing of association between menstruation and migraine.

PubMed

Barra, Mathias; Dahl, Fredrik A; Vetvik, Kjersti G

2015-02-01

To repair and refine a previously proposed method for statistical analysis of association between migraine and menstruation. Menstrually related migraine (MRM) affects about 20% of female migraineurs in the general population. The exact pathophysiological link from menstruation to migraine is hypothesized to be through fluctuations in female reproductive hormones, but the exact mechanisms remain unknown. Therefore, the main diagnostic criterion today is concurrency of migraine attacks with menstruation. Methods aiming to exclude spurious associations are wanted, so that further research into these mechanisms can be performed on a population with a true association. The statistical method is based on a simple two-parameter null model of MRM (which allows for simulation modeling), and Fisher's exact test (with mid-p correction) applied to standard 2 × 2 contingency tables derived from the patients' headache diaries. Our method is a corrected version of a previously published flawed framework. To our best knowledge, no other published methods for establishing a menstruation-migraine association by statistical means exist today. The probabilistic methodology shows good performance when subjected to receiver operator characteristic curve analysis. Quick reference cutoff values for the clinical setting were tabulated for assessing association given a patient's headache history. In this paper, we correct a proposed method for establishing association between menstruation and migraine by statistical methods. We conclude that the proposed standard of 3-cycle observations prior to setting an MRM diagnosis should be extended with at least one perimenstrual window to obtain sufficient information for statistical processing. © 2014 American Headache Society.

Polygenic scores via penalized regression on summary statistics.

PubMed

Mak, Timothy Shin Heng; Porsch, Robert Milan; Choi, Shing Wan; Zhou, Xueya; Sham, Pak Chung

2017-09-01

Polygenic scores (PGS) summarize the genetic contribution of a person's genotype to a disease or phenotype. They can be used to group participants into different risk categories for diseases, and are also used as covariates in epidemiological analyses. A number of possible ways of calculating PGS have been proposed, and recently there is much interest in methods that incorporate information available in published summary statistics. As there is no inherent information on linkage disequilibrium (LD) in summary statistics, a pertinent question is how we can use LD information available elsewhere to supplement such analyses. To answer this question, we propose a method for constructing PGS using summary statistics and a reference panel in a penalized regression framework, which we call lassosum. We also propose a general method for choosing the value of the tuning parameter in the absence of validation data. In our simulations, we showed that pseudovalidation often resulted in prediction accuracy that is comparable to using a dataset with validation phenotype and was clearly superior to the conservative option of setting the tuning parameter of lassosum to its lowest value. We also showed that lassosum achieved better prediction accuracy than simple clumping and P-value thresholding in almost all scenarios. It was also substantially faster and more accurate than the recently proposed LDpred. © 2017 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

Branch length estimation and divergence dating: estimates of error in Bayesian and maximum likelihood frameworks.

PubMed

Schwartz, Rachel S; Mueller, Rachel L

2010-01-11

Estimates of divergence dates between species improve our understanding of processes ranging from nucleotide substitution to speciation. Such estimates are frequently based on molecular genetic differences between species; therefore, they rely on accurate estimates of the number of such differences (i.e. substitutions per site, measured as branch length on phylogenies). We used simulations to determine the effects of dataset size, branch length heterogeneity, branch depth, and analytical framework on branch length estimation across a range of branch lengths. We then reanalyzed an empirical dataset for plethodontid salamanders to determine how inaccurate branch length estimation can affect estimates of divergence dates. The accuracy of branch length estimation varied with branch length, dataset size (both number of taxa and sites), branch length heterogeneity, branch depth, dataset complexity, and analytical framework. For simple phylogenies analyzed in a Bayesian framework, branches were increasingly underestimated as branch length increased; in a maximum likelihood framework, longer branch lengths were somewhat overestimated. Longer datasets improved estimates in both frameworks; however, when the number of taxa was increased, estimation accuracy for deeper branches was less than for tip branches. Increasing the complexity of the dataset produced more misestimated branches in a Bayesian framework; however, in an ML framework, more branches were estimated more accurately. Using ML branch length estimates to re-estimate plethodontid salamander divergence dates generally resulted in an increase in the estimated age of older nodes and a decrease in the estimated age of younger nodes. Branch lengths are misestimated in both statistical frameworks for simulations of simple datasets. However, for complex datasets, length estimates are quite accurate in ML (even for short datasets), whereas few branches are estimated accurately in a Bayesian framework. Our reanalysis of empirical data demonstrates the magnitude of effects of Bayesian branch length misestimation on divergence date estimates. Because the length of branches for empirical datasets can be estimated most reliably in an ML framework when branches are <1 substitution/site and datasets are > or =1 kb, we suggest that divergence date estimates using datasets, branch lengths, and/or analytical techniques that fall outside of these parameters should be interpreted with caution.

Understanding general practice: a conceptual framework developed from case studies in the UK NHS.

PubMed

Checkland, Kath

2007-01-01

General practice in the UK is undergoing a period of rapid and profound change. Traditionally, research into the effects of change on general practice has tended to regard GPs as individuals or as members of a professional group. To understand the impact of change, general practices should also be considered as organisations. To use the organisational studies literature to build a conceptual framework of general practice organisations, and to test and develop this empirically using case studies of change in practice. This study used the implementation of National Service Frameworks (NSFs) and the new General Medical Services (GMS) contract as incidents of change. In-depth, qualitative case studies. The design was iterative: each case study was followed by a review of the theoretical ideas. The final conceptual framework was the result of the dynamic interplay between theory and empirical evidence. Five general practices in England, selected using purposeful sampling. Semi-structured interviews with all clinical and managerial personnel in each practice, participant and nonparticipant observation, and examination of documents. A conceptual framework was developed that can be used to understand how and why practices respond to change. This framework enabled understanding of observed reactions to the introduction of NSFs and the new GMS contract. Important factors for generating responses to change included the story that the practice members told about their practice, beliefs about what counted as legitimate work, the role played by the manager, and previous experiences of change. Viewing general practices as small organisations has generated insights into factors that influence responses to change. Change tends to occur from the bottom up and is determined by beliefs about organisational reality. The conceptual framework suggests some questions that can be asked of practices to explain this internal reality.

Predicting Statistical Response and Extreme Events in Uncertainty Quantification through Reduced-Order Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, D.; Majda, A.

2017-12-01

A low-dimensional reduced-order statistical closure model is developed for quantifying the uncertainty in statistical sensitivity and intermittency in principal model directions with largest variability in high-dimensional turbulent system and turbulent transport models. Imperfect model sensitivity is improved through a recent mathematical strategy for calibrating model errors in a training phase, where information theory and linear statistical response theory are combined in a systematic fashion to achieve the optimal model performance. The idea in the reduced-order method is from a self-consistent mathematical framework for general systems with quadratic nonlinearity, where crucial high-order statistics are approximated by a systematic model calibration procedure. Model efficiency is improved through additional damping and noise corrections to replace the expensive energy-conserving nonlinear interactions. Model errors due to the imperfect nonlinear approximation are corrected by tuning the model parameters using linear response theory with an information metric in a training phase before prediction. A statistical energy principle is adopted to introduce a global scaling factor in characterizing the higher-order moments in a consistent way to improve model sensitivity. Stringent models of barotropic and baroclinic turbulence are used to display the feasibility of the reduced-order methods. Principal statistical responses in mean and variance can be captured by the reduced-order models with accuracy and efficiency. Besides, the reduced-order models are also used to capture crucial passive tracer field that is advected by the baroclinic turbulent flow. It is demonstrated that crucial principal statistical quantities like the tracer spectrum and fat-tails in the tracer probability density functions in the most important large scales can be captured efficiently with accuracy using the reduced-order tracer model in various dynamical regimes of the flow field with distinct statistical structures.

[Cause-of-death statistics and ICD, quo vadis?

PubMed

Eckert, Olaf; Vogel, Ulrich

2018-07-01

The International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD) is the worldwide binding standard for generating underlying cause-of-death statistics. What are the effects of former revisions of the ICD on underlying cause-of-death statistics and which opportunities and challenges are becoming apparent in a possible transition process from ICD-10 to ICD-11?This article presents the calculation of the exploitation grade of ICD-9 and ICD-10 in the German cause-of-death statistics and quality of documentation. Approximately 67,000 anonymized German death certificates are processed by Iris/MUSE and official German cause-of-death statistics are analyzed.In addition to substantial changes in the exploitation grade in the transition from ICD-9 to ICD-10, regional effects become visible. The rate of so-called "ill-defined" conditions exceeds 10%.Despite substantial improvement of ICD revisions there are long-known deficits in the coroner's inquest, filling death certificates and quality of coding. To make better use of the ICD as a methodological framework for mortality statistics and health reporting in Germany, the following measures are necessary: 1. General use of Iris/MUSE, 2. Establishing multiple underlying cause-of-death statistics, 3. Introduction of an electronic death certificate, 4. Improvement of the medical assessment of cause of death.Within short time the WHO will release the 11th revision of the ICD that will provide additional opportunities for the development of underlying cause-of-death statistics and their use in science, public health and politics. A coordinated effort including participants in the process and users is necessary to meet the related challenges.

Statistical physics approach to earthquake occurrence and forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Arcangelis, Lucilla; Godano, Cataldo; Grasso, Jean Robert; Lippiello, Eugenio

2016-04-01

There is striking evidence that the dynamics of the Earth crust is controlled by a wide variety of mutually dependent mechanisms acting at different spatial and temporal scales. The interplay of these mechanisms produces instabilities in the stress field, leading to abrupt energy releases, i.e., earthquakes. As a consequence, the evolution towards instability before a single event is very difficult to monitor. On the other hand, collective behavior in stress transfer and relaxation within the Earth crust leads to emergent properties described by stable phenomenological laws for a population of many earthquakes in size, time and space domains. This observation has stimulated a statistical mechanics approach to earthquake occurrence, applying ideas and methods as scaling laws, universality, fractal dimension, renormalization group, to characterize the physics of earthquakes. In this review we first present a description of the phenomenological laws of earthquake occurrence which represent the frame of reference for a variety of statistical mechanical models, ranging from the spring-block to more complex fault models. Next, we discuss the problem of seismic forecasting in the general framework of stochastic processes, where seismic occurrence can be described as a branching process implementing space-time-energy correlations between earthquakes. In this context we show how correlations originate from dynamical scaling relations between time and energy, able to account for universality and provide a unifying description for the phenomenological power laws. Then we discuss how branching models can be implemented to forecast the temporal evolution of the earthquake occurrence probability and allow to discriminate among different physical mechanisms responsible for earthquake triggering. In particular, the forecasting problem will be presented in a rigorous mathematical framework, discussing the relevance of the processes acting at different temporal scales for different levels of prediction. In this review we also briefly discuss how the statistical mechanics approach can be applied to non-tectonic earthquakes and to other natural stochastic processes, such as volcanic eruptions and solar flares.

Statistical Learning and Language: An Individual Differences Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Misyak, Jennifer B.; Christiansen, Morten H.

2012-01-01

Although statistical learning and language have been assumed to be intertwined, this theoretical presupposition has rarely been tested empirically. The present study investigates the relationship between statistical learning and language using a within-subject design embedded in an individual-differences framework. Participants were administered…

A Statistical Test for Comparing Nonnested Covariance Structure Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levy, Roy; Hancock, Gregory R.

While statistical procedures are well known for comparing hierarchically related (nested) covariance structure models, statistical tests for comparing nonhierarchically related (nonnested) models have proven more elusive. While isolated attempts have been made, none exists within the commonly used maximum likelihood estimation framework, thereby…

Climate Projections from the NARCliM Project: Bayesian Model Averaging of Maximum Temperature Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, R.; Evans, J. P.; Fan, Y.

2015-12-01

NARCliM (NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling Project) is a regional climate project for Australia and the surrounding region. It dynamically downscales 4 General Circulation Models (GCMs) using three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to provide climate projections for the CORDEX-AustralAsia region at 50 km resolution, and for south-east Australia at 10 km resolution. The project differs from previous work in the level of sophistication of model selection. Specifically, the selection process for GCMs included (i) conducting literature review to evaluate model performance, (ii) analysing model independence, and (iii) selecting models that span future temperature and precipitation change space. RCMs for downscaling the GCMs were chosen based on their performance for several precipitation events over South-East Australia, and on model independence.Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) provides a statistically consistent framework for weighing the models based on their likelihood given the available observations. These weights are used to provide probability distribution functions (pdfs) for model projections. We develop a BMA framework for constructing probabilistic climate projections for spatially-averaged variables from the NARCliM project. The first step in the procedure is smoothing model output in order to exclude the influence of internal climate variability. Our statistical model for model-observations residuals is a homoskedastic iid process. Comparing RCMs with Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) observations is used to determine model weights through Monte Carlo integration. Posterior pdfs of statistical parameters of model-data residuals are obtained using Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The uncertainty in the properties of the model-data residuals is fully accounted for when constructing the projections. We present the preliminary results of the BMA analysis for yearly maximum temperature for New South Wales state planning regions for the period 2060-2079.

Meta-analysis of haplotype-association studies: comparison of methods and empirical evaluation of the literature

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Meta-analysis is a popular methodology in several fields of medical research, including genetic association studies. However, the methods used for meta-analysis of association studies that report haplotypes have not been studied in detail. In this work, methods for performing meta-analysis of haplotype association studies are summarized, compared and presented in a unified framework along with an empirical evaluation of the literature. Results We present multivariate methods that use summary-based data as well as methods that use binary and count data in a generalized linear mixed model framework (logistic regression, multinomial regression and Poisson regression). The methods presented here avoid the inflation of the type I error rate that could be the result of the traditional approach of comparing a haplotype against the remaining ones, whereas, they can be fitted using standard software. Moreover, formal global tests are presented for assessing the statistical significance of the overall association. Although the methods presented here assume that the haplotypes are directly observed, they can be easily extended to allow for such an uncertainty by weighting the haplotypes by their probability. Conclusions An empirical evaluation of the published literature and a comparison against the meta-analyses that use single nucleotide polymorphisms, suggests that the studies reporting meta-analysis of haplotypes contain approximately half of the included studies and produce significant results twice more often. We show that this excess of statistically significant results, stems from the sub-optimal method of analysis used and, in approximately half of the cases, the statistical significance is refuted if the data are properly re-analyzed. Illustrative examples of code are given in Stata and it is anticipated that the methods developed in this work will be widely applied in the meta-analysis of haplotype association studies. PMID:21247440

Packet Randomized Experiments for Eliminating Classes of Confounders

PubMed Central

Pavela, Greg; Wiener, Howard; Fontaine, Kevin R.; Fields, David A.; Voss, Jameson D.; Allison, David B.

2014-01-01

Background Although randomization is considered essential for causal inference, it is often not possible to randomize in nutrition and obesity research. To address this, we develop a framework for an experimental design—packet randomized experiments (PREs), which improves causal inferences when randomization on a single treatment variable is not possible. This situation arises when subjects are randomly assigned to a condition (such as a new roommate) which varies in one characteristic of interest (such as weight), but also varies across many others. There has been no general discussion of this experimental design, including its strengths, limitations, and statistical properties. As such, researchers are left to develop and apply PREs on an ad hoc basis, limiting its potential to improve causal inferences among nutrition and obesity researchers. Methods We introduce PREs as an intermediary design between randomized controlled trials and observational studies. We review previous research that used the PRE design and describe its application in obesity-related research, including random roommate assignments, heterochronic parabiosis, and the quasi-random assignment of subjects to geographic areas. We then provide a statistical framework to control for potential packet-level confounders not accounted for by randomization. Results PREs have successfully been used to improve causal estimates of the effect of roommates, altitude, and breastfeeding on weight outcomes. When certain assumptions are met, PREs can asymptotically control for packet-level characteristics. This has the potential to statistically estimate the effect of a single treatment even when randomization to a single treatment did not occur. Conclusions Applying PREs to obesity-related research will improve decisions about clinical, public health, and policy actions insofar as it offers researchers new insight into cause and effect relationships among variables. PMID:25444088

A theoretical framework for analyzing coupled neuronal networks: Application to the olfactory system.

PubMed

Barreiro, Andrea K; Gautam, Shree Hari; Shew, Woodrow L; Ly, Cheng

2017-10-01

Determining how synaptic coupling within and between regions is modulated during sensory processing is an important topic in neuroscience. Electrophysiological recordings provide detailed information about neural spiking but have traditionally been confined to a particular region or layer of cortex. Here we develop new theoretical methods to study interactions between and within two brain regions, based on experimental measurements of spiking activity simultaneously recorded from the two regions. By systematically comparing experimentally-obtained spiking statistics to (efficiently computed) model spike rate statistics, we identify regions in model parameter space that are consistent with the experimental data. We apply our new technique to dual micro-electrode array in vivo recordings from two distinct regions: olfactory bulb (OB) and anterior piriform cortex (PC). Our analysis predicts that: i) inhibition within the afferent region (OB) has to be weaker than the inhibition within PC, ii) excitation from PC to OB is generally stronger than excitation from OB to PC, iii) excitation from PC to OB and inhibition within PC have to both be relatively strong compared to presynaptic inputs from OB. These predictions are validated in a spiking neural network model of the OB-PC pathway that satisfies the many constraints from our experimental data. We find when the derived relationships are violated, the spiking statistics no longer satisfy the constraints from the data. In principle this modeling framework can be adapted to other systems and be used to investigate relationships between other neural attributes besides network connection strengths. Thus, this work can serve as a guide to further investigations into the relationships of various neural attributes within and across different regions during sensory processing.

Incorporating Budget Impact Analysis in the Implementation of Complex Interventions: A Case of an Integrated Intervention for Multimorbid Patients within the CareWell Study.

PubMed

Soto-Gordoa, Myriam; Arrospide, Arantzazu; Merino Hernández, Marisa; Mora Amengual, Joana; Fullaondo Zabala, Ane; Larrañaga, Igor; de Manuel, Esteban; Mar, Javier

2017-01-01

To develop a framework for the management of complex health care interventions within the Deming continuous improvement cycle and to test the framework in the case of an integrated intervention for multimorbid patients in the Basque Country within the CareWell project. Statistical analysis alone, although necessary, may not always represent the practical significance of the intervention. Thus, to ascertain the true economic impact of the intervention, the statistical results can be integrated into the budget impact analysis. The intervention of the case study consisted of a comprehensive approach that integrated new provider roles and new technological infrastructure for multimorbid patients, with the aim of reducing patient decompensations by 10% over 5 years. The study period was 2012 to 2020. Given the aging of the general population, the conventional scenario predicts an increase of 21% in the health care budget for care of multimorbid patients during the study period. With a successful intervention, this figure should drop to 18%. The statistical analysis, however, showed no significant differences in costs either in primary care or in hospital care between 2012 and 2014. The real costs in 2014 were by far closer to those in the conventional scenario than to the reductions expected in the objective scenario. The present implementation should be reappraised, because the present expenditure did not move closer to the objective budget. This work demonstrates the capacity of budget impact analysis to enhance the implementation of complex interventions. Its integration in the context of the continuous improvement cycle is transferable to other contexts in which implementation depth and time are important. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A new statistical framework to assess structural alignment quality using information compression

PubMed Central

Collier, James H.; Allison, Lloyd; Lesk, Arthur M.; Garcia de la Banda, Maria; Konagurthu, Arun S.

2014-01-01

Motivation: Progress in protein biology depends on the reliability of results from a handful of computational techniques, structural alignments being one. Recent reviews have highlighted substantial inconsistencies and differences between alignment results generated by the ever-growing stock of structural alignment programs. The lack of consensus on how the quality of structural alignments must be assessed has been identified as the main cause for the observed differences. Current methods assess structural alignment quality by constructing a scoring function that attempts to balance conflicting criteria, mainly alignment coverage and fidelity of structures under superposition. This traditional approach to measuring alignment quality, the subject of considerable literature, has failed to solve the problem. Further development along the same lines is unlikely to rectify the current deficiencies in the field. Results: This paper proposes a new statistical framework to assess structural alignment quality and significance based on lossless information compression. This is a radical departure from the traditional approach of formulating scoring functions. It links the structural alignment problem to the general class of statistical inductive inference problems, solved using the information-theoretic criterion of minimum message length. Based on this, we developed an efficient and reliable measure of structural alignment quality, I-value. The performance of I-value is demonstrated in comparison with a number of popular scoring functions, on a large collection of competing alignments. Our analysis shows that I-value provides a rigorous and reliable quantification of structural alignment quality, addressing a major gap in the field. Availability: http://lcb.infotech.monash.edu.au/I-value Contact: arun.konagurthu@monash.edu Supplementary information: Online supplementary data are available at http://lcb.infotech.monash.edu.au/I-value/suppl.html PMID:25161241

Exploring the squeezed three-point galaxy correlation function with generalized halo occupation distribution models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Sihan; Eisenstein, Daniel J.; Garrison, Lehman H.

2018-04-01

We present the GeneRalized ANd Differentiable Halo Occupation Distribution (GRAND-HOD) routine that generalizes the standard 5 parameter halo occupation distribution model (HOD) with various halo-scale physics and assembly bias. We describe the methodology of 4 different generalizations: satellite distribution generalization, velocity bias, closest approach distance generalization, and assembly bias. We showcase the signatures of these generalizations in the 2-point correlation function (2PCF) and the squeezed 3-point correlation function (squeezed 3PCF). We identify generalized HOD prescriptions that are nearly degenerate in the projected 2PCF and demonstrate that these degeneracies are broken in the redshift-space anisotropic 2PCF and the squeezed 3PCF. We also discuss the possibility of identifying degeneracies in the anisotropic 2PCF and further demonstrate the extra constraining power of the squeezed 3PCF on galaxy-halo connection models. We find that within our current HOD framework, the anisotropic 2PCF can predict the squeezed 3PCF better than its statistical error. This implies that a discordant squeezed 3PCF measurement could falsify the particular HOD model space. Alternatively, it is possible that further generalizations of the HOD model would open opportunities for the squeezed 3PCF to provide novel parameter measurements. The GRAND-HOD Python package is publicly available at https://github.com/SandyYuan/GRAND-HOD.

Applying Sociocultural Theory to Teaching Statistics for Doctoral Social Work Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mogro-Wilson, Cristina; Reeves, Michael G.; Charter, Mollie Lazar

2015-01-01

This article describes the development of two doctoral-level multivariate statistics courses utilizing sociocultural theory, an integrative pedagogical framework. In the first course, the implementation of sociocultural theory helps to support the students through a rigorous introduction to statistics. The second course involves students…

A statistical learning framework for groundwater nitrate models of the Central Valley, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nolan, Bernard T.; Fienen, Michael N.; Lorenz, David L.

2015-01-01

We used a statistical learning framework to evaluate the ability of three machine-learning methods to predict nitrate concentration in shallow groundwater of the Central Valley, California: boosted regression trees (BRT), artificial neural networks (ANN), and Bayesian networks (BN). Machine learning methods can learn complex patterns in the data but because of overfitting may not generalize well to new data. The statistical learning framework involves cross-validation (CV) training and testing data and a separate hold-out data set for model evaluation, with the goal of optimizing predictive performance by controlling for model overfit. The order of prediction performance according to both CV testing R2 and that for the hold-out data set was BRT > BN > ANN. For each method we identified two models based on CV testing results: that with maximum testing R2 and a version with R2 within one standard error of the maximum (the 1SE model). The former yielded CV training R2 values of 0.94–1.0. Cross-validation testing R2 values indicate predictive performance, and these were 0.22–0.39 for the maximum R2 models and 0.19–0.36 for the 1SE models. Evaluation with hold-out data suggested that the 1SE BRT and ANN models predicted better for an independent data set compared with the maximum R2 versions, which is relevant to extrapolation by mapping. Scatterplots of predicted vs. observed hold-out data obtained for final models helped identify prediction bias, which was fairly pronounced for ANN and BN. Lastly, the models were compared with multiple linear regression (MLR) and a previous random forest regression (RFR) model. Whereas BRT results were comparable to RFR, MLR had low hold-out R2 (0.07) and explained less than half the variation in the training data. Spatial patterns of predictions by the final, 1SE BRT model agreed reasonably well with previously observed patterns of nitrate occurrence in groundwater of the Central Valley.

A Nonrigid Kernel-Based Framework for 2D-3D Pose Estimation and 2D Image Segmentation

PubMed Central

Sandhu, Romeil; Dambreville, Samuel; Yezzi, Anthony; Tannenbaum, Allen

2013-01-01

In this work, we present a nonrigid approach to jointly solving the tasks of 2D-3D pose estimation and 2D image segmentation. In general, most frameworks that couple both pose estimation and segmentation assume that one has exact knowledge of the 3D object. However, under nonideal conditions, this assumption may be violated if only a general class to which a given shape belongs is given (e.g., cars, boats, or planes). Thus, we propose to solve the 2D-3D pose estimation and 2D image segmentation via nonlinear manifold learning of 3D embedded shapes for a general class of objects or deformations for which one may not be able to associate a skeleton model. Thus, the novelty of our method is threefold: First, we present and derive a gradient flow for the task of nonrigid pose estimation and segmentation. Second, due to the possible nonlinear structures of one’s training set, we evolve the preimage obtained through kernel PCA for the task of shape analysis. Third, we show that the derivation for shape weights is general. This allows us to use various kernels, as well as other statistical learning methodologies, with only minimal changes needing to be made to the overall shape evolution scheme. In contrast with other techniques, we approach the nonrigid problem, which is an infinite-dimensional task, with a finite-dimensional optimization scheme. More importantly, we do not explicitly need to know the interaction between various shapes such as that needed for skeleton models as this is done implicitly through shape learning. We provide experimental results on several challenging pose estimation and segmentation scenarios. PMID:20733218

Edwards statistical mechanics for jammed granular matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baule, Adrian; Morone, Flaviano; Herrmann, Hans J.; Makse, Hernán A.

2018-01-01

In 1989, Sir Sam Edwards made the visionary proposition to treat jammed granular materials using a volume ensemble of equiprobable jammed states in analogy to thermal equilibrium statistical mechanics, despite their inherent athermal features. Since then, the statistical mechanics approach for jammed matter—one of the very few generalizations of Gibbs-Boltzmann statistical mechanics to out-of-equilibrium matter—has garnered an extraordinary amount of attention by both theorists and experimentalists. Its importance stems from the fact that jammed states of matter are ubiquitous in nature appearing in a broad range of granular and soft materials such as colloids, emulsions, glasses, and biomatter. Indeed, despite being one of the simplest states of matter—primarily governed by the steric interactions between the constitutive particles—a theoretical understanding based on first principles has proved exceedingly challenging. Here a systematic approach to jammed matter based on the Edwards statistical mechanical ensemble is reviewed. The construction of microcanonical and canonical ensembles based on the volume function, which replaces the Hamiltonian in jammed systems, is discussed. The importance of approximation schemes at various levels is emphasized leading to quantitative predictions for ensemble averaged quantities such as packing fractions and contact force distributions. An overview of the phenomenology of jammed states and experiments, simulations, and theoretical models scrutinizing the strong assumptions underlying Edwards approach is given including recent results suggesting the validity of Edwards ergodic hypothesis for jammed states. A theoretical framework for packings whose constitutive particles range from spherical to nonspherical shapes such as dimers, polymers, ellipsoids, spherocylinders or tetrahedra, hard and soft, frictional, frictionless and adhesive, monodisperse, and polydisperse particles in any dimensions is discussed providing insight into a unifying phase diagram for all jammed matter. Furthermore, the connection between the Edwards ensemble of metastable jammed states and metastability in spin glasses is established. This highlights the fact that the packing problem can be understood as a constraint satisfaction problem for excluded volume and force and torque balance leading to a unifying framework between the Edwards ensemble of equiprobable jammed states and out-of-equilibrium spin glasses.

Conducting Human Research

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-08-05

Socio-cultural data acquisition, extraction, and management.??? First the idea of a theoretical framework will be very briefly discussed as well as...SUBJECT TERMS human behavior, theoretical framework , hypothesis development, experimental design, ethical research, statistical power, human laboratory...who throw rocks? • How can we make them stay too far away to throw rocks? UNCLASSIFIED – Approved for Public Release Theoretical Framework / Conceptual

A Modeling Framework for Optimal Computational Resource Allocation Estimation: Considering the Trade-offs between Physical Resolutions, Uncertainty and Computational Costs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moslehi, M.; de Barros, F.; Rajagopal, R.

2014-12-01

Hydrogeological models that represent flow and transport in subsurface domains are usually large-scale with excessive computational complexity and uncertain characteristics. Uncertainty quantification for predicting flow and transport in heterogeneous formations often entails utilizing a numerical Monte Carlo framework, which repeatedly simulates the model according to a random field representing hydrogeological characteristics of the field. The physical resolution (e.g. grid resolution associated with the physical space) for the simulation is customarily chosen based on recommendations in the literature, independent of the number of Monte Carlo realizations. This practice may lead to either excessive computational burden or inaccurate solutions. We propose an optimization-based methodology that considers the trade-off between the following conflicting objectives: time associated with computational costs, statistical convergence of the model predictions and physical errors corresponding to numerical grid resolution. In this research, we optimally allocate computational resources by developing a modeling framework for the overall error based on a joint statistical and numerical analysis and optimizing the error model subject to a given computational constraint. The derived expression for the overall error explicitly takes into account the joint dependence between the discretization error of the physical space and the statistical error associated with Monte Carlo realizations. The accuracy of the proposed framework is verified in this study by applying it to several computationally extensive examples. Having this framework at hand aims hydrogeologists to achieve the optimum physical and statistical resolutions to minimize the error with a given computational budget. Moreover, the influence of the available computational resources and the geometric properties of the contaminant source zone on the optimum resolutions are investigated. We conclude that the computational cost associated with optimal allocation can be substantially reduced compared with prevalent recommendations in the literature.

What contribution can international relations make to the evolving global health agenda?

PubMed

Davies, Sara E

2010-01-01

This article presents two approaches that have dominated International Relations in their approach to the international politics of health. The statist approach, which is primarily security-focused, seeks to link health initiatives to a foreign or defence policy remit. The globalist approach, in contrast, seeks to advance health not because of its intrinsic security value but because it advances the well-being and rights of individuals. This article charts the evolution of these approaches and demonstrates why both have the potential to shape our understanding of the evolving global health agenda. It examines how the statist and globalist perspectives have helped shape contemporary initiatives in global health governance and suggests that there is evidence of an emerging convergence between the two perspectives. This convergence is particularly clear in the articulation of a number of UN initiatives in this area - especially the One World, One Health Strategic Framework and the Oslo Ministerial Declaration (2007) which inspired the first UN General Assembly resolution on global health and foreign policy in 2009 and the UN Secretary-General's note "Global health and foreign policy: strategic opportunities and challenges". What remains to be seen is whether this convergence will deliver on securing states' interest long enough to promote the interests of the individuals who require global efforts to deliver local health improvements.

Use of the Rasch model for initial testing of fit statistics and rating scale diagnosis for a general anesthesia satisfaction questionnaire.

PubMed

Hawkins, Robert J; Kremer, Michael J; Swanson, Barbara; Fogg, Lou; Pierce, Penny; Pearson, Julie

2014-01-01

The level of patient satisfaction is a result of a complex set of interactions between the patient and the health care provider. It is important to quantify satisfaction with care because it involves the patient in the care experience and decreases the potential gap between expected and actual care delivered. We tested a preliminary 23-item instrument to measure patient satisfaction with general anesthesia care. The rating scale Rasch model was chosen as the framework. There were 10 items found to have sufficient evidence of stable fit statistics. Items included 2 questions related to information provided, 2 questions related to concern and kindness of the provider, and 1 question each for interpersonal skills of the provider, attention by the provider, feeling safe, well-being, privacy, and overall anesthesia satisfaction. Such actions as providing enough time to understand the anesthesia plan, answering questions related to the anesthetic, showing kindness and concern for the patient, displaying good interpersonal skills, providing adequate attention to the patient, providing a safe environment that maintains privacy and provides a sense of well-being are important actions that are well within the control of individual anesthesia providers and may lead to improved care from the perception of the patient.

Consistent integration of experimental and ab initio data into molecular and coarse-grained models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vlcek, Lukas

As computer simulations are increasingly used to complement or replace experiments, highly accurate descriptions of physical systems at different time and length scales are required to achieve realistic predictions. The questions of how to objectively measure model quality in relation to reference experimental or ab initio data, and how to transition seamlessly between different levels of resolution are therefore of prime interest. To address these issues, we use the concept of statistical distance to define a measure of similarity between statistical mechanical systems, i.e., a model and its target, and show that its minimization leads to general convergence of the systems' measurable properties. Through systematic coarse-graining, we arrive at appropriate expressions for optimization loss functions consistently incorporating microscopic ab initio data as well as macroscopic experimental data. The design of coarse-grained and multiscale models is then based on factoring the model system partition function into terms describing the system at different resolution levels. The optimization algorithm takes advantage of thermodynamic perturbation expressions for fast exploration of the model parameter space, enabling us to scan millions of parameter combinations per hour on a single CPU. The robustness and generality of the new model optimization framework and its efficient implementation are illustrated on selected examples including aqueous solutions, magnetic systems, and metal alloys.

General Multivariate Linear Modeling of Surface Shapes Using SurfStat

PubMed Central

Chung, Moo K.; Worsley, Keith J.; Nacewicz, Brendon, M.; Dalton, Kim M.; Davidson, Richard J.

2010-01-01

Although there are many imaging studies on traditional ROI-based amygdala volumetry, there are very few studies on modeling amygdala shape variations. This paper present a unified computational and statistical framework for modeling amygdala shape variations in a clinical population. The weighted spherical harmonic representation is used as to parameterize, to smooth out, and to normalize amygdala surfaces. The representation is subsequently used as an input for multivariate linear models accounting for nuisance covariates such as age and brain size difference using SurfStat package that completely avoids the complexity of specifying design matrices. The methodology has been applied for quantifying abnormal local amygdala shape variations in 22 high functioning autistic subjects. PMID:20620211

International GPS Service for Geodynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zumberge, J. F. (Editor); Urban, M. P. (Editor); Liu, R. (Editor); Neilan, R. E. (Editor)

1996-01-01

This 1995 annual report of the IGS International GPS (Global Positioning System) Service for Geodynamics - describes the second operational year of the service. It provides the many IGS contributing agencies and the rapidly growing user community with essential information on current organizational and technical matters promoting the IGS standards and products (including organizational framework, data processing strategies, and statistics showing the remarkable expansion of the GPS monitoring network, the improvement of IGS performance, and product quality). It also introduces important practical concepts for network densification by integration of regional stations and the combination of station coordinate solutions. There are groups of articles describing general aspects of the IGS, the Associate Analysis Centers (AACs), Data Centers, and IGS stations.

Pressure calculation in hybrid particle-field simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milano, Giuseppe; Kawakatsu, Toshihiro

2010-12-01

In the framework of a recently developed scheme for a hybrid particle-field simulation techniques where self-consistent field (SCF) theory and particle models (molecular dynamics) are combined [J. Chem. Phys. 130, 214106 (2009)], we developed a general formulation for the calculation of instantaneous pressure and stress tensor. The expressions have been derived from statistical mechanical definition of the pressure starting from the expression for the free energy functional in the SCF theory. An implementation of the derived formulation suitable for hybrid particle-field molecular dynamics-self-consistent field simulations is described. A series of test simulations on model systems are reported comparing the calculated pressure with those obtained from standard molecular dynamics simulations based on pair potentials.

Two competing species in super-diffusive dynamical regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Cognata, A.; Valenti, D.; Spagnolo, B.; Dubkov, A. A.

2010-09-01

The dynamics of two competing species within the framework of the generalized Lotka-Volterra equations, in the presence of multiplicative α-stable Lévy noise sources and a random time dependent interaction parameter, is studied. The species dynamics is characterized by two different dynamical regimes, exclusion of one species and coexistence of both, depending on the values of the interaction parameter, which obeys a Langevin equation with a periodically fluctuating bistable potential and an additive α-stable Lévy noise. The stochastic resonance phenomenon is analyzed for noise sources asymmetrically distributed. Finally, the effects of statistical dependence between multiplicative noise and additive noise on the dynamics of the two species are studied.

SHARE: system design and case studies for statistical health information release

PubMed Central

Gardner, James; Xiong, Li; Xiao, Yonghui; Gao, Jingjing; Post, Andrew R; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Ohno-Machado, Lucila

2013-01-01

Objectives We present SHARE, a new system for statistical health information release with differential privacy. We present two case studies that evaluate the software on real medical datasets and demonstrate the feasibility and utility of applying the differential privacy framework on biomedical data. Materials and Methods SHARE releases statistical information in electronic health records with differential privacy, a strong privacy framework for statistical data release. It includes a number of state-of-the-art methods for releasing multidimensional histograms and longitudinal patterns. We performed a variety of experiments on two real datasets, the surveillance, epidemiology and end results (SEER) breast cancer dataset and the Emory electronic medical record (EeMR) dataset, to demonstrate the feasibility and utility of SHARE. Results Experimental results indicate that SHARE can deal with heterogeneous data present in medical data, and that the released statistics are useful. The Kullback–Leibler divergence between the released multidimensional histograms and the original data distribution is below 0.5 and 0.01 for seven-dimensional and three-dimensional data cubes generated from the SEER dataset, respectively. The relative error for longitudinal pattern queries on the EeMR dataset varies between 0 and 0.3. While the results are promising, they also suggest that challenges remain in applying statistical data release using the differential privacy framework for higher dimensional data. Conclusions SHARE is one of the first systems to provide a mechanism for custodians to release differentially private aggregate statistics for a variety of use cases in the medical domain. This proof-of-concept system is intended to be applied to large-scale medical data warehouses. PMID:23059729

Neglected Issues and Possible Strategies for the Iraqi Economy After the 2003 Invasion

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-12-01

7 F . GENERAL FRAMEWORK...22 F . THREE NEGLECTED PROBLEMATIC ISSUES............................... 24 1. The Informal Economy...Ibid., 73. 11 F . GENERAL FRAMEWORK Today, the general situation in Iraq is uncertain in every facet of life, including the economic, social

Phenomenology of small violations of Fermi and Bose statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenberg, O. W.; Mohapatra, Rabindra N.

1989-04-01

In a recent paper, we proposed a ``paronic'' field-theory framework for possible small deviations from the Pauli exclusion principle. This theory cannot be represented in a positive-metric (Hilbert) space. Nonetheless, the issue of possible small violations of the exclusion principle can be addressed in the framework of quantum mechanics, without being connected with a local quantum field theory. In this paper, we discuss the phenomenology of small violations of both Fermi and Bose statistics. We consider the implications of such violations in atomic, nuclear, particle, and condensed-matter physics and in astrophysics and cosmology. We also discuss experiments that can detect small violations of Fermi and Bose statistics or place stringent bounds on their validity.

Convolutionless Nakajima-Zwanzig equations for stochastic analysis in nonlinear dynamical systems.

PubMed

Venturi, D; Karniadakis, G E

2014-06-08

Determining the statistical properties of stochastic nonlinear systems is of major interest across many disciplines. Currently, there are no general efficient methods to deal with this challenging problem that involves high dimensionality, low regularity and random frequencies. We propose a framework for stochastic analysis in nonlinear dynamical systems based on goal-oriented probability density function (PDF) methods. The key idea stems from techniques of irreversible statistical mechanics, and it relies on deriving evolution equations for the PDF of quantities of interest, e.g. functionals of the solution to systems of stochastic ordinary and partial differential equations. Such quantities could be low-dimensional objects in infinite dimensional phase spaces. We develop the goal-oriented PDF method in the context of the time-convolutionless Nakajima-Zwanzig-Mori formalism. We address the question of approximation of reduced-order density equations by multi-level coarse graining, perturbation series and operator cumulant resummation. Numerical examples are presented for stochastic resonance and stochastic advection-reaction problems.

Inference in the brain: Statistics flowing in redundant population codes

PubMed Central

Pitkow, Xaq; Angelaki, Dora E

2017-01-01

It is widely believed that the brain performs approximate probabilistic inference to estimate causal variables in the world from ambiguous sensory data. To understand these computations, we need to analyze how information is represented and transformed by the actions of nonlinear recurrent neural networks. We propose that these probabilistic computations function by a message-passing algorithm operating at the level of redundant neural populations. To explain this framework, we review its underlying concepts, including graphical models, sufficient statistics, and message-passing, and then describe how these concepts could be implemented by recurrently connected probabilistic population codes. The relevant information flow in these networks will be most interpretable at the population level, particularly for redundant neural codes. We therefore outline a general approach to identify the essential features of a neural message-passing algorithm. Finally, we argue that to reveal the most important aspects of these neural computations, we must study large-scale activity patterns during moderately complex, naturalistic behaviors. PMID:28595050

Self-affirmation model for football goal distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bittner, E.; Nußbaumer, A.; Janke, W.; Weigel, M.

2007-06-01

Analyzing football score data with statistical techniques, we investigate how the highly co-operative nature of the game is reflected in averaged properties such as the distributions of scored goals for the home and away teams. It turns out that in particular the tails of the distributions are not well described by independent Bernoulli trials, but rather well modeled by negative binomial or generalized extreme value distributions. To understand this behavior from first principles, we suggest to modify the Bernoulli random process to include a simple component of self-affirmation which seems to describe the data surprisingly well and allows to interpret the observed deviation from Gaussian statistics. The phenomenological distributions used before can be understood as special cases within this framework. We analyzed historical football score data from many leagues in Europe as well as from international tournaments and found the proposed models to be applicable rather universally. In particular, here we compare men's and women's leagues and the separate German leagues during the cold war times and find some remarkable differences.

A statistical estimation of Snow Water Equivalent coupling ground data and MODIS images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bavera, D.; Bocchiola, D.; de Michele, C.

2007-12-01

The Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) is an important component of the hydrologic balance of mountain basins and snow fed areas in general. The total cumulated snow water equivalent at the end of the accumulation season represents the water availability at melt. Here, a statistical methodology to estimate the Snow Water Equivalent, at April 1st, is developed coupling ground data (snow depth and snow density measurements) and MODIS images. The methodology is applied to the Mallero river basin (about 320 km²) located in the Central Alps, northern Italy, where are available 11 snow gauges and a lot of sparse snow density measurements. The application covers 7 years from 2001 to 2007. The analysis has identified some problems in the MODIS information due to the cloud cover and misclassification for orographic shadow. The study is performed in the framework of AWARE (A tool for monitoring and forecasting Available WAter REsource in mountain environment) EU-project, a STREP Project in the VI F.P., GMES Initiative.

Theory for controlling individual self-propelled micro-swimmers by photon nudging I: directed transport.

PubMed

Selmke, Markus; Khadka, Utsab; Bregulla, Andreas P; Cichos, Frank; Yang, Haw

2018-04-18

Photon nudging is a new experimental method which enables the force-free manipulation and localization of individual self-propelled artificial micro-swimmers in fluidic environments. It uses a weak laser to stochastically and adaptively turn on and off the swimmer's propulsion when the swimmer, through rotational diffusion, points towards or away from its target, respectively. This contribution presents a theoretical framework for the statistics of both 2D and 3D controls. The main results are: the on- and off-time distributions for the controlling laser, the arrival time statistics for the swimmer to reach a remote target, and how the experimentally accessible control parameters influence the control, e.g., the optimal acceptance angle for directed transport. The results are general in that they are independent of the propulsion or the actuation mechanisms. They provide a concrete physical picture for how a single artificial micro-swimmer could be navigated under thermal fluctuations-insights that could also be useful for understanding biological micro-swimmers.

Performance metrics for the assessment of satellite data products: an ocean color case study

PubMed Central

Seegers, Bridget N.; Stumpf, Richard P.; Schaeffer, Blake A.; Loftin, Keith A.; Werdell, P. Jeremy

2018-01-01

Performance assessment of ocean color satellite data has generally relied on statistical metrics chosen for their common usage and the rationale for selecting certain metrics is infrequently explained. Commonly reported statistics based on mean squared errors, such as the coefficient of determination (r2), root mean square error, and regression slopes, are most appropriate for Gaussian distributions without outliers and, therefore, are often not ideal for ocean color algorithm performance assessment, which is often limited by sample availability. In contrast, metrics based on simple deviations, such as bias and mean absolute error, as well as pair-wise comparisons, often provide more robust and straightforward quantities for evaluating ocean color algorithms with non-Gaussian distributions and outliers. This study uses a SeaWiFS chlorophyll-a validation data set to demonstrate a framework for satellite data product assessment and recommends a multi-metric and user-dependent approach that can be applied within science, modeling, and resource management communities. PMID:29609296

Convolutionless Nakajima–Zwanzig equations for stochastic analysis in nonlinear dynamical systems

PubMed Central

Venturi, D.; Karniadakis, G. E.

2014-01-01

Determining the statistical properties of stochastic nonlinear systems is of major interest across many disciplines. Currently, there are no general efficient methods to deal with this challenging problem that involves high dimensionality, low regularity and random frequencies. We propose a framework for stochastic analysis in nonlinear dynamical systems based on goal-oriented probability density function (PDF) methods. The key idea stems from techniques of irreversible statistical mechanics, and it relies on deriving evolution equations for the PDF of quantities of interest, e.g. functionals of the solution to systems of stochastic ordinary and partial differential equations. Such quantities could be low-dimensional objects in infinite dimensional phase spaces. We develop the goal-oriented PDF method in the context of the time-convolutionless Nakajima–Zwanzig–Mori formalism. We address the question of approximation of reduced-order density equations by multi-level coarse graining, perturbation series and operator cumulant resummation. Numerical examples are presented for stochastic resonance and stochastic advection–reaction problems. PMID:24910519

The Development of a Professional Statistics Teaching Identity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whitaker, Douglas

2016-01-01

Motivated by the increased statistics expectations for students and their teachers because of the widespread adoption of the Common Core State Standards for Mathematics, this study explores exemplary, in-service statistics teachers' professional identities using a theoretical framework informed by Gee (2000) and communities of practice (Lave &…

Quantifying spatial and temporal trends in beach-dune volumetric changes using spatial statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eamer, Jordan B. R.; Walker, Ian J.

2013-06-01

Spatial statistics are generally underutilized in coastal geomorphology, despite offering great potential for identifying and quantifying spatial-temporal trends in landscape morphodynamics. In particular, local Moran's Ii provides a statistical framework for detecting clusters of significant change in an attribute (e.g., surface erosion or deposition) and quantifying how this changes over space and time. This study analyzes and interprets spatial-temporal patterns in sediment volume changes in a beach-foredune-transgressive dune complex following removal of invasive marram grass (Ammophila spp.). Results are derived by detecting significant changes in post-removal repeat DEMs derived from topographic surveys and airborne LiDAR. The study site was separated into discrete, linked geomorphic units (beach, foredune, transgressive dune complex) to facilitate sub-landscape scale analysis of volumetric change and sediment budget responses. Difference surfaces derived from a pixel-subtraction algorithm between interval DEMs and the LiDAR baseline DEM were filtered using the local Moran's Ii method and two different spatial weights (1.5 and 5 m) to detect statistically significant change. Moran's Ii results were compared with those derived from a more spatially uniform statistical method that uses a simpler student's t distribution threshold for change detection. Morphodynamic patterns and volumetric estimates were similar between the uniform geostatistical method and Moran's Ii at a spatial weight of 5 m while the smaller spatial weight (1.5 m) consistently indicated volumetric changes of less magnitude. The larger 5 m spatial weight was most representative of broader site morphodynamics and spatial patterns while the smaller spatial weight provided volumetric changes consistent with field observations. All methods showed foredune deflation immediately following removal with increased sediment volumes into the spring via deposition at the crest and on lobes in the lee, despite erosion on the stoss slope and dune toe. Generally, the foredune became wider by landward extension and the seaward slope recovered from erosion to a similar height and form to that of pre-restoration despite remaining essentially free of vegetation.

Zonal flows and turbulence in fluids and plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, Jeffrey Bok-Cheung

In geophysical and plasma contexts, zonal flows are well known to arise out of turbulence. We elucidate the transition from statistically homogeneous turbulence without zonal flows to statistically inhomogeneous turbulence with steady zonal flows. Starting from the Hasegawa--Mima equation, we employ both the quasilinear approximation and a statistical average, which retains a great deal of the qualitative behavior of the full system. Within the resulting framework known as CE2, we extend recent understanding of the symmetry-breaking 'zonostrophic instability'. Zonostrophic instability can be understood in a very general way as the instability of some turbulent background spectrum to a zonally symmetric coherent mode. As a special case, the background spectrum can consist of only a single mode. We find that in this case the dispersion relation of zonostrophic instability from the CE2 formalism reduces exactly to that of the 4-mode truncation of generalized modulational instability. We then show that zonal flows constitute pattern formation amid a turbulent bath. Zonostrophic instability is an example of a Type I s instability of pattern-forming systems. The broken symmetry is statistical homogeneity. Near the bifurcation point, the slow dynamics of CE2 are governed by a well-known amplitude equation, the real Ginzburg-Landau equation. The important features of this amplitude equation, and therefore of the CE2 system, are multiple. First, the zonal flow wavelength is not unique. In an idealized, infinite system, there is a continuous band of zonal flow wavelengths that allow a nonlinear equilibrium. Second, of these wavelengths, only those within a smaller subband are stable. Unstable wavelengths must evolve to reach a stable wavelength; this process manifests as merging jets. These behaviors are shown numerically to hold in the CE2 system, and we calculate a stability diagram. The stability diagram is in agreement with direct numerical simulations of the quasilinear system. The use of statistically-averaged equations and the pattern formation methodology provide a path forward for further systematic investigations of zonal flows and their interactions with turbulence.

Statistical mechanics framework for static granular matter.

PubMed

Henkes, Silke; Chakraborty, Bulbul

2009-06-01

The physical properties of granular materials have been extensively studied in recent years. So far, however, there exists no theoretical framework which can explain the observations in a unified manner beyond the phenomenological jamming diagram. This work focuses on the case of static granular matter, where we have constructed a statistical ensemble which mirrors equilibrium statistical mechanics. This ensemble, which is based on the conservation properties of the stress tensor, is distinct from the original Edwards ensemble and applies to packings of deformable grains. We combine it with a field theoretical analysis of the packings, where the field is the Airy stress function derived from the force and torque balance conditions. In this framework, Point J characterized by a diverging stiffness of the pressure fluctuations. Separately, we present a phenomenological mean-field theory of the jamming transition, which incorporates the mean contact number as a variable. We link both approaches in the context of the marginal rigidity picture proposed by Wyart and others.

Mourning dove hunting regulation strategy based on annual harvest statistics and banding data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Otis, D.L.

2006-01-01

Although managers should strive to base game bird harvest management strategies on mechanistic population models, monitoring programs required to build and continuously update these models may not be in place. Alternatively, If estimates of total harvest and harvest rates are available, then population estimates derived from these harvest data can serve as the basis for making hunting regulation decisions based on population growth rates derived from these estimates. I present a statistically rigorous approach for regulation decision-making using a hypothesis-testing framework and an assumed framework of 3 hunting regulation alternatives. I illustrate and evaluate the technique with historical data on the mid-continent mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) population. I evaluate the statistical properties of the hypothesis-testing framework using the best available data on mourning doves (Zenaida macroura). I use these results to discuss practical implementation of the technique as an interim harvest strategy for mourning doves until reliable mechanistic population models and associated monitoring programs are developed.

A Framework for Establishing Standard Reference Scale of Texture by Multivariate Statistical Analysis Based on Instrumental Measurement and Sensory Evaluation.

PubMed

Zhi, Ruicong; Zhao, Lei; Xie, Nan; Wang, Houyin; Shi, Bolin; Shi, Jingye

2016-01-13

A framework of establishing standard reference scale (texture) is proposed by multivariate statistical analysis according to instrumental measurement and sensory evaluation. Multivariate statistical analysis is conducted to rapidly select typical reference samples with characteristics of universality, representativeness, stability, substitutability, and traceability. The reasonableness of the framework method is verified by establishing standard reference scale of texture attribute (hardness) with Chinese well-known food. More than 100 food products in 16 categories were tested using instrumental measurement (TPA test), and the result was analyzed with clustering analysis, principal component analysis, relative standard deviation, and analysis of variance. As a result, nine kinds of foods were determined to construct the hardness standard reference scale. The results indicate that the regression coefficient between the estimated sensory value and the instrumentally measured value is significant (R(2) = 0.9765), which fits well with Stevens's theory. The research provides reliable a theoretical basis and practical guide for quantitative standard reference scale establishment on food texture characteristics.

The role of ensemble-based statistics in variational assimilation of cloud-affected observations from infrared imagers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hacker, Joshua; Vandenberghe, Francois; Jung, Byoung-Jo; Snyder, Chris

2017-04-01

Effective assimilation of cloud-affected radiance observations from space-borne imagers, with the aim of improving cloud analysis and forecasting, has proven to be difficult. Large observation biases, nonlinear observation operators, and non-Gaussian innovation statistics present many challenges. Ensemble-variational data assimilation (EnVar) systems offer the benefits of flow-dependent background error statistics from an ensemble, and the ability of variational minimization to handle nonlinearity. The specific benefits of ensemble statistics, relative to static background errors more commonly used in variational systems, have not been quantified for the problem of assimilating cloudy radiances. A simple experiment framework is constructed with a regional NWP model and operational variational data assimilation system, to provide the basis understanding the importance of ensemble statistics in cloudy radiance assimilation. Restricting the observations to those corresponding to clouds in the background forecast leads to innovations that are more Gaussian. The number of large innovations is reduced compared to the more general case of all observations, but not eliminated. The Huber norm is investigated to handle the fat tails of the distributions, and allow more observations to be assimilated without the need for strict background checks that eliminate them. Comparing assimilation using only ensemble background error statistics with assimilation using only static background error statistics elucidates the importance of the ensemble statistics. Although the cost functions in both experiments converge to similar values after sufficient outer-loop iterations, the resulting cloud water, ice, and snow content are greater in the ensemble-based analysis. The subsequent forecasts from the ensemble-based analysis also retain more condensed water species, indicating that the local environment is more supportive of clouds. In this presentation we provide details that explain the apparent benefit from using ensembles for cloudy radiance assimilation in an EnVar context.

Quantitative trait nucleotide analysis using Bayesian model selection.

PubMed

Blangero, John; Goring, Harald H H; Kent, Jack W; Williams, Jeff T; Peterson, Charles P; Almasy, Laura; Dyer, Thomas D

2005-10-01

Although much attention has been given to statistical genetic methods for the initial localization and fine mapping of quantitative trait loci (QTLs), little methodological work has been done to date on the problem of statistically identifying the most likely functional polymorphisms using sequence data. In this paper we provide a general statistical genetic framework, called Bayesian quantitative trait nucleotide (BQTN) analysis, for assessing the likely functional status of genetic variants. The approach requires the initial enumeration of all genetic variants in a set of resequenced individuals. These polymorphisms are then typed in a large number of individuals (potentially in families), and marker variation is related to quantitative phenotypic variation using Bayesian model selection and averaging. For each sequence variant a posterior probability of effect is obtained and can be used to prioritize additional molecular functional experiments. An example of this quantitative nucleotide analysis is provided using the GAW12 simulated data. The results show that the BQTN method may be useful for choosing the most likely functional variants within a gene (or set of genes). We also include instructions on how to use our computer program, SOLAR, for association analysis and BQTN analysis.

Best practices for evaluating the capability of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) and structural health monitoring (SHM) techniques for damage characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aldrin, John C.; Annis, Charles; Sabbagh, Harold A.; Lindgren, Eric A.

2016-02-01

A comprehensive approach to NDE and SHM characterization error (CE) evaluation is presented that follows the framework of the `ahat-versus-a' regression analysis for POD assessment. Characterization capability evaluation is typically more complex with respect to current POD evaluations and thus requires engineering and statistical expertise in the model-building process to ensure all key effects and interactions are addressed. Justifying the statistical model choice with underlying assumptions is key. Several sizing case studies are presented with detailed evaluations of the most appropriate statistical model for each data set. The use of a model-assisted approach is introduced to help assess the reliability of NDE and SHM characterization capability under a wide range of part, environmental and damage conditions. Best practices of using models are presented for both an eddy current NDE sizing and vibration-based SHM case studies. The results of these studies highlight the general protocol feasibility, emphasize the importance of evaluating key application characteristics prior to the study, and demonstrate an approach to quantify the role of varying SHM sensor durability and environmental conditions on characterization performance.

A General Exponential Framework for Dimensionality Reduction.

PubMed

Wang, Su-Jing; Yan, Shuicheng; Yang, Jian; Zhou, Chun-Guang; Fu, Xiaolan

2014-02-01

As a general framework, Laplacian embedding, based on a pairwise similarity matrix, infers low dimensional representations from high dimensional data. However, it generally suffers from three issues: 1) algorithmic performance is sensitive to the size of neighbors; 2) the algorithm encounters the well known small sample size (SSS) problem; and 3) the algorithm de-emphasizes small distance pairs. To address these issues, here we propose exponential embedding using matrix exponential and provide a general framework for dimensionality reduction. In the framework, the matrix exponential can be roughly interpreted by the random walk over the feature similarity matrix, and thus is more robust. The positive definite property of matrix exponential deals with the SSS problem. The behavior of the decay function of exponential embedding is more significant in emphasizing small distance pairs. Under this framework, we apply matrix exponential to extend many popular Laplacian embedding algorithms, e.g., locality preserving projections, unsupervised discriminant projections, and marginal fisher analysis. Experiments conducted on the synthesized data, UCI, and the Georgia Tech face database show that the proposed new framework can well address the issues mentioned above.

A framework for quantification and physical modeling of cell mixing applied to oscillator synchronization in vertebrate somitogenesis.

PubMed

Uriu, Koichiro; Bhavna, Rajasekaran; Oates, Andrew C; Morelli, Luis G

2017-08-15

In development and disease, cells move as they exchange signals. One example is found in vertebrate development, during which the timing of segment formation is set by a 'segmentation clock', in which oscillating gene expression is synchronized across a population of cells by Delta-Notch signaling. Delta-Notch signaling requires local cell-cell contact, but in the zebrafish embryonic tailbud, oscillating cells move rapidly, exchanging neighbors. Previous theoretical studies proposed that this relative movement or cell mixing might alter signaling and thereby enhance synchronization. However, it remains unclear whether the mixing timescale in the tissue is in the right range for this effect, because a framework to reliably measure the mixing timescale and compare it with signaling timescale is lacking. Here, we develop such a framework using a quantitative description of cell mixing without the need for an external reference frame and constructing a physical model of cell movement based on the data. Numerical simulations show that mixing with experimentally observed statistics enhances synchronization of coupled phase oscillators, suggesting that mixing in the tailbud is fast enough to affect the coherence of rhythmic gene expression. Our approach will find general application in analyzing the relative movements of communicating cells during development and disease. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

A framework for quantification and physical modeling of cell mixing applied to oscillator synchronization in vertebrate somitogenesis

PubMed Central

Bhavna, Rajasekaran; Oates, Andrew C.; Morelli, Luis G.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT In development and disease, cells move as they exchange signals. One example is found in vertebrate development, during which the timing of segment formation is set by a ‘segmentation clock’, in which oscillating gene expression is synchronized across a population of cells by Delta-Notch signaling. Delta-Notch signaling requires local cell-cell contact, but in the zebrafish embryonic tailbud, oscillating cells move rapidly, exchanging neighbors. Previous theoretical studies proposed that this relative movement or cell mixing might alter signaling and thereby enhance synchronization. However, it remains unclear whether the mixing timescale in the tissue is in the right range for this effect, because a framework to reliably measure the mixing timescale and compare it with signaling timescale is lacking. Here, we develop such a framework using a quantitative description of cell mixing without the need for an external reference frame and constructing a physical model of cell movement based on the data. Numerical simulations show that mixing with experimentally observed statistics enhances synchronization of coupled phase oscillators, suggesting that mixing in the tailbud is fast enough to affect the coherence of rhythmic gene expression. Our approach will find general application in analyzing the relative movements of communicating cells during development and disease. PMID:28652318

Rate-distortion theory and human perception.

PubMed

Sims, Chris R

2016-07-01

The fundamental goal of perception is to aid in the achievement of behavioral objectives. This requires extracting and communicating useful information from noisy and uncertain sensory signals. At the same time, given the complexity of sensory information and the limitations of biological information processing, it is necessary that some information must be lost or discarded in the act of perception. Under these circumstances, what constitutes an 'optimal' perceptual system? This paper describes the mathematical framework of rate-distortion theory as the optimal solution to the problem of minimizing the costs of perceptual error subject to strong constraints on the ability to communicate or transmit information. Rate-distortion theory offers a general and principled theoretical framework for developing computational-level models of human perception (Marr, 1982). Models developed in this framework are capable of producing quantitatively precise explanations for human perceptual performance, while yielding new insights regarding the nature and goals of perception. This paper demonstrates the application of rate-distortion theory to two benchmark domains where capacity limits are especially salient in human perception: discrete categorization of stimuli (also known as absolute identification) and visual working memory. A software package written for the R statistical programming language is described that aids in the development of models based on rate-distortion theory. Copyright © 2016 The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

General flat four-dimensional world pictures and clock systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hsu, J. P.; Underwood, J. A.

1978-01-01

We explore the mathematical structure and the physical implications of a general four-dimensional symmetry framework which is consistent with the Poincare-Einstein principle of relativity for physical laws and with experiments. In particular, we discuss a four-dimensional framework in which all observers in different frames use one and the same grid of clocks. The general framework includes special relativity and a recently proposed new four-dimensional symmetry with a nonuniversal light speed as two special simple cases. The connection between the properties of light propagation and the convention concerning clock systems is also discussed, and is seen to be nonunique within the four-dimensional framework.

FORESEE: Fully Outsourced secuRe gEnome Study basEd on homomorphic Encryption

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Background The increasing availability of genome data motivates massive research studies in personalized treatment and precision medicine. Public cloud services provide a flexible way to mitigate the storage and computation burden in conducting genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, data privacy has been widely concerned when sharing the sensitive information in a cloud environment. Methods We presented a novel framework (FORESEE: Fully Outsourced secuRe gEnome Study basEd on homomorphic Encryption) to fully outsource GWAS (i.e., chi-square statistic computation) using homomorphic encryption. The proposed framework enables secure divisions over encrypted data. We introduced two division protocols (i.e., secure errorless division and secure approximation division) with a trade-off between complexity and accuracy in computing chi-square statistics. Results The proposed framework was evaluated for the task of chi-square statistic computation with two case-control datasets from the 2015 iDASH genome privacy protection challenge. Experimental results show that the performance of FORESEE can be significantly improved through algorithmic optimization and parallel computation. Remarkably, the secure approximation division provides significant performance gain, but without missing any significance SNPs in the chi-square association test using the aforementioned datasets. Conclusions Unlike many existing HME based studies, in which final results need to be computed by the data owner due to the lack of the secure division operation, the proposed FORESEE framework support complete outsourcing to the cloud and output the final encrypted chi-square statistics. PMID:26733391

FORESEE: Fully Outsourced secuRe gEnome Study basEd on homomorphic Encryption.

PubMed

Zhang, Yuchen; Dai, Wenrui; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Xiong, Hongkai; Wang, Shuang

2015-01-01

The increasing availability of genome data motivates massive research studies in personalized treatment and precision medicine. Public cloud services provide a flexible way to mitigate the storage and computation burden in conducting genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, data privacy has been widely concerned when sharing the sensitive information in a cloud environment. We presented a novel framework (FORESEE: Fully Outsourced secuRe gEnome Study basEd on homomorphic Encryption) to fully outsource GWAS (i.e., chi-square statistic computation) using homomorphic encryption. The proposed framework enables secure divisions over encrypted data. We introduced two division protocols (i.e., secure errorless division and secure approximation division) with a trade-off between complexity and accuracy in computing chi-square statistics. The proposed framework was evaluated for the task of chi-square statistic computation with two case-control datasets from the 2015 iDASH genome privacy protection challenge. Experimental results show that the performance of FORESEE can be significantly improved through algorithmic optimization and parallel computation. Remarkably, the secure approximation division provides significant performance gain, but without missing any significance SNPs in the chi-square association test using the aforementioned datasets. Unlike many existing HME based studies, in which final results need to be computed by the data owner due to the lack of the secure division operation, the proposed FORESEE framework support complete outsourcing to the cloud and output the final encrypted chi-square statistics.

A real-world approach to Evidence-Based Medicine in general practice: a competency framework derived from a systematic review and Delphi process.

PubMed

Galbraith, Kevin; Ward, Alison; Heneghan, Carl

2017-05-03

Evidence-Based Medicine (EBM) skills have been included in general practice curricula and competency frameworks. However, GPs experience numerous barriers to developing and maintaining EBM skills, and some GPs feel the EBM movement misunderstands, and threatens their traditional role. We therefore need a new approach that acknowledges the constraints encountered in real-world general practice. The aim of this study was to synthesise from empirical research a real-world EBM competency framework for general practice, which could be applied in training, in the individual pursuit of continuing professional development, and in routine care. We sought to integrate evidence from the literature with evidence derived from the opinions of experts in the fields of general practice and EBM. We synthesised two sets of themes describing the meaning of EBM in general practice. One set of themes was derived from a mixed-methods systematic review of the literature; the other set was derived from the further development of those themes using a Delphi process among a panel of EBM and general practice experts. From these two sets of themes we constructed a real-world EBM competency framework for general practice. A simple competency framework was constructed, that acknowledges the constraints of real-world general practice: (1) mindfulness - in one's approach towards EBM itself, and to the influences on decision-making; (2) pragmatism - in one's approach to finding and evaluating evidence; and (3) knowledge of the patient - as the most useful resource in effective communication of evidence. We present a clinical scenario to illustrate how a GP might demonstrate these competencies in their routine daily work. We have proposed a real-world EBM competency framework for general practice, derived from empirical research, which acknowledges the constraints encountered in modern general practice. Further validation of these competencies is required, both as an educational resource and as a strategy for actual practice.

A UNIFIED FRAMEWORK FOR VARIANCE COMPONENT ESTIMATION WITH SUMMARY STATISTICS IN GENOME-WIDE ASSOCIATION STUDIES.

PubMed

Zhou, Xiang

2017-12-01

Linear mixed models (LMMs) are among the most commonly used tools for genetic association studies. However, the standard method for estimating variance components in LMMs-the restricted maximum likelihood estimation method (REML)-suffers from several important drawbacks: REML requires individual-level genotypes and phenotypes from all samples in the study, is computationally slow, and produces downward-biased estimates in case control studies. To remedy these drawbacks, we present an alternative framework for variance component estimation, which we refer to as MQS. MQS is based on the method of moments (MoM) and the minimal norm quadratic unbiased estimation (MINQUE) criterion, and brings two seemingly unrelated methods-the renowned Haseman-Elston (HE) regression and the recent LD score regression (LDSC)-into the same unified statistical framework. With this new framework, we provide an alternative but mathematically equivalent form of HE that allows for the use of summary statistics. We provide an exact estimation form of LDSC to yield unbiased and statistically more efficient estimates. A key feature of our method is its ability to pair marginal z -scores computed using all samples with SNP correlation information computed using a small random subset of individuals (or individuals from a proper reference panel), while capable of producing estimates that can be almost as accurate as if both quantities are computed using the full data. As a result, our method produces unbiased and statistically efficient estimates, and makes use of summary statistics, while it is computationally efficient for large data sets. Using simulations and applications to 37 phenotypes from 8 real data sets, we illustrate the benefits of our method for estimating and partitioning SNP heritability in population studies as well as for heritability estimation in family studies. Our method is implemented in the GEMMA software package, freely available at www.xzlab.org/software.html.

Using the ECD Framework to Support Evidentiary Reasoning in the Context of a Simulation Study for Detecting Learner Differences in Epistemic Games

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sweet, Shauna J.; Rupp, Andre A.

2012-01-01

The "evidence-centered design" (ECD) framework is a powerful tool that supports careful and critical thinking about the identification and accumulation of evidence in assessment contexts. In this paper, we demonstrate how the ECD framework provides critical support for designing simulation studies to investigate statistical methods…

Influence of laser-welding and electroerosion on passive fit of implant-supported prosthesis.

PubMed

Silva, Tatiana Bernardon; De Arruda Nobilo, Mauro Antonio; Pessanha Henriques, Guilherme Elias; Mesquita, Marcelo Ferraz; Guimaraes, Magali Beck

2008-01-01

This study investigated the influence of laser welding and electroerosion procedure on the passive fit of interim fixed implant-supported titanium frameworks. Twenty frameworks were made from a master model, with five parallel placed implants in the inter foramen region, and cast in commercially pure titanium. The frameworks were divided into 4 groups: 10 samples were tested before (G1) and after (G2) electroerosion application; and another 10 were sectioned into five pieces and laser welded before (G3) and after (G4) electroerosion application. The passive fit between the UCLA abutment of the framework and the implant was evaluated using an optical microscope Olympus STM (Olympus Optical Co., Tokyo, Japan) with 0.0005mm of accuracy. Statistical analyses showed significant differences between G1 and G2, G1 and G3, G1 and G4, G2 and G4. However, no statistical difference was observed when comparing G2 and G3. These results indicate that frameworks may show a more precise adaptation if they are sectioned and laser welded. In the same way, electroerosion improves the precision in the framework adaptation.

General Criteria for Evaluating Social Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shipman, Stephanie

1989-01-01

A framework of general evaluation criteria for ensuring the comprehensiveness of program reviews and appropriate and fair comparison of children's programs is outlined. It has two components: (1) descriptive; and (2) evaluative. The framework was developed by researchers at the General Accounting Office for evaluation of federal programs. (TJH)

A general framework for multivariate multi-index drought prediction based on Multivariate Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (MESP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Zengchao; Hao, Fanghua; Singh, Vijay P.

2016-08-01

Drought is among the costliest natural hazards worldwide and extreme drought events in recent years have caused huge losses to various sectors. Drought prediction is therefore critically important for providing early warning information to aid decision making to cope with drought. Due to the complicated nature of drought, it has been recognized that the univariate drought indicator may not be sufficient for drought characterization and hence multivariate drought indices have been developed for drought monitoring. Alongside the substantial effort in drought monitoring with multivariate drought indices, it is of equal importance to develop a drought prediction method with multivariate drought indices to integrate drought information from various sources. This study proposes a general framework for multivariate multi-index drought prediction that is capable of integrating complementary prediction skills from multiple drought indices. The Multivariate Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (MESP) is employed to sample from historical records for obtaining statistical prediction of multiple variables, which is then used as inputs to achieve multivariate prediction. The framework is illustrated with a linearly combined drought index (LDI), which is a commonly used multivariate drought index, based on climate division data in California and New York in the United States with different seasonality of precipitation. The predictive skill of LDI (represented with persistence) is assessed by comparison with the univariate drought index and results show that the LDI prediction skill is less affected by seasonality than the meteorological drought prediction based on SPI. Prediction results from the case study show that the proposed multivariate drought prediction outperforms the persistence prediction, implying a satisfactory performance of multivariate drought prediction. The proposed method would be useful for drought prediction to integrate drought information from various sources for early drought warning.

Understanding general practice: a conceptual framework developed from case studies in the UK NHS

PubMed Central

Checkland, Kath

2007-01-01

Background General practice in the UK is undergoing a period of rapid and profound change. Traditionally, research into the effects of change on general practice has tended to regard GPs as individuals or as members of a professional group. To understand the impact of change, general practices should also be considered as organisations. Aim To use the organisational studies literature to build a conceptual framework of general practice organisations, and to test and develop this empirically using case studies of change in practice. This study used the implementation of National Service Frameworks (NSFs) and the new General Medical Services (GMS) contract as incidents of change. Design of study In-depth, qualitative case studies. The design was iterative: each case study was followed by a review of the theoretical ideas. The final conceptual framework was the result of the dynamic interplay between theory and empirical evidence. Setting Five general practices in England, selected using purposeful sampling. Method Semi-structured interviews with all clinical and managerial personnel in each practice, participant and non-participant observation, and examination of documents. Results A conceptual framework was developed that can be used to understand how and why practices respond to change. This framework enabled understanding of observed reactions to the introduction of NSFs and the new GMS contract. Important factors for generating responses to change included the story that the practice members told about their practice, beliefs about what counted as legitimate work, the role played by the manager, and previous experiences of change. Conclusion Viewing general practices as small organisations has generated insights into factors that influence responses to change. Change tends to occur from the bottom up and is determined by beliefs about organisational reality. The conceptual framework suggests some questions that can be asked of practices to explain this internal reality. PMID:17244426

Towards a framework for testing general relativity with extreme-mass-ratio-inspiral observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chua, A. J. K.; Hee, S.; Handley, W. J.; Higson, E.; Moore, C. J.; Gair, J. R.; Hobson, M. P.; Lasenby, A. N.

2018-07-01

Extreme-mass-ratio-inspiral observations from future space-based gravitational-wave detectors such as LISA will enable strong-field tests of general relativity with unprecedented precision, but at prohibitive computational cost if existing statistical techniques are used. In one such test that is currently employed for LIGO black hole binary mergers, generic deviations from relativity are represented by N deformation parameters in a generalized waveform model; the Bayesian evidence for each of its 2N combinatorial submodels is then combined into a posterior odds ratio for modified gravity over relativity in a null-hypothesis test. We adapt and apply this test to a generalized model for extreme-mass-ratio inspirals constructed on deformed black hole spacetimes, and focus our investigation on how computational efficiency can be increased through an evidence-free method of model selection. This method is akin to the algorithm known as product-space Markov chain Monte Carlo, but uses nested sampling and improved error estimates from a rethreading technique. We perform benchmarking and robustness checks for the method, and find order-of-magnitude computational gains over regular nested sampling in the case of synthetic data generated from the null model.

Cusping, transport and variance of solutions to generalized Fokker-Planck equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carnaffan, Sean; Kawai, Reiichiro

2017-06-01

We study properties of solutions to generalized Fokker-Planck equations through the lens of the probability density functions of anomalous diffusion processes. In particular, we examine solutions in terms of their cusping, travelling wave behaviours, and variance, within the framework of stochastic representations of generalized Fokker-Planck equations. We give our analysis in the cases of anomalous diffusion driven by the inverses of the stable, tempered stable and gamma subordinators, demonstrating the impact of changing the distribution of waiting times in the underlying anomalous diffusion model. We also analyse the cases where the underlying anomalous diffusion contains a Lévy jump component in the parent process, and when a diffusion process is time changed by an uninverted Lévy subordinator. On the whole, we present a combination of four criteria which serve as a theoretical basis for model selection, statistical inference and predictions for physical experiments on anomalously diffusing systems. We discuss possible applications in physical experiments, including, with reference to specific examples, the potential for model misclassification and how combinations of our four criteria may be used to overcome this issue.

Stress Transmission and Failure in Disordered Porous Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laubie, Hadrien; Radjai, Farhang; Pellenq, Roland; Ulm, Franz-Josef

2017-08-01

By means of extensive lattice-element simulations, we investigate stress transmission and its relation with failure properties in increasingly disordered porous systems. We observe a non-Gaussian broadening of stress probability density functions under tensile loading with increasing porosity and disorder, revealing a gradual transition from a state governed by single-pore stress concentration to a state controlled by multipore interactions and metric disorder. This effect is captured by the excess kurtosis of stress distributions and shown to be nicely correlated with the second moment of local porosity fluctuations, which appears thus as a (dis)order parameter for the system. By generating statistical ensembles of porous textures with varying porosity and disorder, we derive a general expression for the fracture stress as a decreasing function of porosity and disorder. Focusing on critical sites where the local stress is above the global fracture threshold, we also analyze the transition to failure in terms of a coarse-graining length. These findings provide a general framework which can also be more generally applied to multiphase and structural heterogeneous materials.

Evaluating the Generalization Value of Process-based Models in a Deep-in-time Machine Learning framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, C.; Fang, K.

2017-12-01

Deep Learning (DL) methods have made revolutionary strides in recent years. A core value proposition of DL is that abstract notions and patterns can be extracted purely from data, without the need for domain expertise. Process-based models (PBM), on the other hand, can be regarded as repositories of human knowledge or hypotheses about how systems function. Here, through computational examples, we argue that there is merit in integrating PBMs with DL due to the imbalance and lack of data in many situations, especially in hydrology. We trained a deep-in-time neural network, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), to learn soil moisture dynamics from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level 3 product. We show that when PBM solutions are integrated into LSTM, the network is able to better generalize across regions. LSTM is able to better utilize PBM solutions than simpler statistical methods. Our results suggest PBMs have generalization value which should be carefully assessed and utilized. We also emphasize that when properly regularized, the deep network is robust and is of superior testing performance compared to simpler methods.

Teaching Statistics with Technology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prodromou, Theodosia

2015-01-01

The Technological Pedagogical Content Knowledge (TPACK) conceptual framework for teaching mathematics, developed by Mishra and Koehler (2006), emphasises the importance of developing integrated and interdependent understanding of three primary forms of knowledge: technology, pedagogy, and content. The TPACK conceptual framework is based upon the…

Stressed and overworked? A cross-sectional study of the working situation of urban and rural general practitioners in Austria in the framework of the QUALICOPC project

PubMed Central

Hoffmann, Kathryn; Wojczewski, Silvia; George, Aaron; Schäfer, Willemijn L. A.; Maier, Manfred

2015-01-01

Aim To assess the workload of general practitioners (GPs) in Austria, with a focus on identifying the differences between GPs working in urban and rural areas. Methods Within the framework of the Quality and Costs of Primary Care in Europe (QUALICOPC) study, data were collected from a stratified sample of GPs using a standardized questionnaire between November 2011 and May 2012. Data analysis included descriptive statistics and regression analysis. Results The analysis included data from 173 GPs. GPs in rural areas reported an average of 49.3 working hours per week, plus 23.7 on-call duties per 3 months and 26.2 out-of-office care services per week. Compared to GPs working in urban areas, even in the fully adjusted regression model, rural GPs had significantly more working hours (B 7.00; P = 0.002) and on-call duties (B 18.91; P < 0.001). 65.8% of all GPs perceived their level of stress as high and 84.6% felt they were required to do unnecessary administrative work. Conclusion Our findings show a high workload among Austrian GPs, particularly those working in rural areas. Since physicians show a diminishing interest to work as GPs, there is an imperative to improve this situation. PMID:26321030

Rational temporal predictions can underlie apparent failures to delay gratification.

PubMed

McGuire, Joseph T; Kable, Joseph W

2013-04-01

An important category of seemingly maladaptive decisions involves failure to postpone gratification. A person pursuing a desirable long-run outcome may abandon it in favor of a short-run alternative that has been available all along. Here we present a theoretical framework in which this seemingly irrational behavior emerges from stable preferences and veridical judgments. Our account recognizes that decision makers generally face uncertainty regarding the time at which future outcomes will materialize. When timing is uncertain, the value of persistence depends crucially on the nature of a decision maker's prior temporal beliefs. Certain forms of temporal beliefs imply that a delay's predicted remaining length increases as a function of time already waited. In this type of situation, the rational, utility-maximizing strategy is to persist for a limited amount of time and then give up. We show empirically that people's explicit predictions of remaining delay lengths indeed increase as a function of elapsed time in several relevant domains, implying that temporal judgments offer a rational basis for limiting persistence. We then develop our framework into a simple working model and show how it accounts for individual differences in a laboratory task (the well-known "marshmallow test"). We conclude that delay-of-gratification failure, generally viewed as a manifestation of limited self-control capacity, can instead arise as an adaptive response to the perceived statistics of one's environment.

Carnot cycle for interacting particles in the absence of thermal noise.

PubMed

Curado, Evaldo M F; Souza, Andre M C; Nobre, Fernando D; Andrade, Roberto F S

2014-02-01

A thermodynamic formalism is developed for a system of interacting particles under overdamped motion, which has been recently analyzed within the framework of nonextensive statistical mechanics. It amounts to expressing the interaction energy of the system in terms of a temperature θ, conjugated to a generalized entropy s(q), with q = 2. Since θ assumes much higher values than those of typical room temperatures T ≪ θ, the thermal noise can be neglected for this system (T/θ ≃ 0). This framework is now extended by the introduction of a work term δW which, together with the formerly defined heat contribution (δ Q = θ ds(q)), allows for the statement of a proper energy conservation law that is analogous to the first law of thermodynamics. These definitions lead to the derivation of an equation of state and to the characterization of s(q) adiabatic and θ isothermic transformations. On this basis, a Carnot cycle is constructed, whose efficiency is shown to be η = 1-(θ(2)/θ(1)), where θ(1) and θ(2) are the effective temperatures of the two isothermic transformations, with θ(1)>θ(2). The results for a generalized thermodynamic description of this system open the possibility for further physical consequences, like the realization of a thermal engine based on energy exchanges gauged by the temperature θ.

Rational temporal predictions can underlie apparent failures to delay gratification

PubMed Central

McGuire, Joseph T.; Kable, Joseph W.

2013-01-01

An important category of seemingly maladaptive decisions involves failure to postpone gratification. A person pursuing a desirable long-run outcome may abandon it in favor of a short-run alternative that has been available all along. Here we present a theoretical framework in which this seemingly irrational behavior emerges from stable preferences and veridical judgments. Our account recognizes that decision makers generally face uncertainty regarding the time at which future outcomes will materialize. When timing is uncertain, the value of persistence depends crucially on the nature of a decision-maker’s prior temporal beliefs. Certain forms of temporal beliefs imply that a delay’s predicted remaining length increases as a function of time already waited. In this type of situation, the rational, utility-maximizing strategy is to persist for a limited amount of time and then give up. We show empirically that people’s explicit predictions of remaining delay lengths indeed increase as a function of elapsed time in several relevant domains, implying that temporal judgments offer a rational basis for limiting persistence. We then develop our framework into a simple working model and show how it accounts for individual differences in a laboratory task (the well-known “marshmallow test”). We conclude that delay-of-gratification failure, generally viewed as a manifestation of limited self-control capacity, can instead arise as an adaptive response to the perceived statistics of one’s environment. PMID:23458085

Statistical Research of Investment Development of Russian Regions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burtseva, Tatiana A.; Aleshnikova, Vera I.; Dubovik, Mayya V.; Naidenkova, Ksenya V.; Kovalchuk, Nadezda B.; Repetskaya, Natalia V.; Kuzmina, Oksana G.; Surkov, Anton A.; Bershadskaya, Olga I.; Smirennikova, Anna V.

2016-01-01

This article the article is concerned with a substantiation of procedures ensuring the implementation of statistical research and monitoring of investment development of the Russian regions, which would be pertinent for modern development of the state statistics. The aim of the study is to develop the methodological framework in order to estimate…

Long-term strategy for the statistical design of a forest health monitoring system

Treesearch

Hans T. Schreuder; Raymond L. Czaplewski

1993-01-01

A conceptual framework is given for a broad-scale survey of forest health that accomplishes three objectives: generate descriptive statistics; detect changes in such statistics; and simplify analytical inferences that identify, and possibly establish cause-effect relationships. Our paper discusses the development of sampling schemes to satisfy these three objectives,...

Optimal population prediction of sandhill crane recruitment based on climate-mediated habitat limitations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Dubovsky, James A.; Drewien, Roderick C.

2015-01-01

Prediction is fundamental to scientific enquiry and application; however, ecologists tend to favour explanatory modelling. We discuss a predictive modelling framework to evaluate ecological hypotheses and to explore novel/unobserved environmental scenarios to assist conservation and management decision-makers. We apply this framework to develop an optimal predictive model for juvenile (<1 year old) sandhill crane Grus canadensis recruitment of the Rocky Mountain Population (RMP). We consider spatial climate predictors motivated by hypotheses of how drought across multiple time-scales and spring/summer weather affects recruitment.Our predictive modelling framework focuses on developing a single model that includes all relevant predictor variables, regardless of collinearity. This model is then optimized for prediction by controlling model complexity using a data-driven approach that marginalizes or removes irrelevant predictors from the model. Specifically, we highlight two approaches of statistical regularization, Bayesian least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and ridge regression.Our optimal predictive Bayesian LASSO and ridge regression models were similar and on average 37% superior in predictive accuracy to an explanatory modelling approach. Our predictive models confirmed a priori hypotheses that drought and cold summers negatively affect juvenile recruitment in the RMP. The effects of long-term drought can be alleviated by short-term wet spring–summer months; however, the alleviation of long-term drought has a much greater positive effect on juvenile recruitment. The number of freezing days and snowpack during the summer months can also negatively affect recruitment, while spring snowpack has a positive effect.Breeding habitat, mediated through climate, is a limiting factor on population growth of sandhill cranes in the RMP, which could become more limiting with a changing climate (i.e. increased drought). These effects are likely not unique to cranes. The alteration of hydrological patterns and water levels by drought may impact many migratory, wetland nesting birds in the Rocky Mountains and beyond.Generalizable predictive models (trained by out-of-sample fit and based on ecological hypotheses) are needed by conservation and management decision-makers. Statistical regularization improves predictions and provides a general framework for fitting models with a large number of predictors, even those with collinearity, to simultaneously identify an optimal predictive model while conducting rigorous Bayesian model selection. Our framework is important for understanding population dynamics under a changing climate and has direct applications for making harvest and habitat management decisions.

Fit reduced GUTS models online: From theory to practice.

PubMed

Baudrot, Virgile; Veber, Philippe; Gence, Guillaume; Charles, Sandrine

2018-05-20

Mechanistic modeling approaches, such as the toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) framework, are promoted by international institutions such as the European Food Safety Authority and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development to assess the environmental risk of chemical products generated by human activities. TKTD models can encompass a large set of mechanisms describing the kinetics of compounds inside organisms (e.g., uptake and elimination) and their effect at the level of individuals (e.g., damage accrual, recovery, and death mechanism). Compared to classical dose-response models, TKTD approaches have many advantages, including accounting for temporal aspects of exposure and toxicity, considering data points all along the experiment and not only at the end, and making predictions for untested situations as realistic exposure scenarios. Among TKTD models, the general unified threshold model of survival (GUTS) is within the most recent and innovative framework but is still underused in practice, especially by risk assessors, because specialist programming and statistical skills are necessary to run it. Making GUTS models easier to use through a new module freely available from the web platform MOSAIC (standing for MOdeling and StAtistical tools for ecotoxIClogy) should promote GUTS operability in support of the daily work of environmental risk assessors. This paper presents the main features of MOSAIC_GUTS: uploading of the experimental data, GUTS fitting analysis, and LCx estimates with their uncertainty. These features will be exemplified from literature data. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;00:000-000. © 2018 SETAC. © 2018 SETAC.

Injectivity Evaluation for Offshore CO 2 Sequestration in Marine Sediments

DOE PAGES

Dai, Zhenxue; Zhang, Ye; Stauffer, Philip; ...

2017-08-18

Global and regional climate change caused by greenhouse gases emissions has stimulated interest in developing various technologies (such as carbon dioxide (CO 2) geologic sequestration in brine reservoirs) to reduce the concentrations of CO 2 in the atmosphere. Our study develops a statistical framework to identify gravitational CO 2 trapping processes and to quantitatively evaluate both CO 2 injectivity (or storage capacity) and leakage potential from marine sediments which exhibit heterogeneous permeability and variable thicknesses. Here, we focus on sets of geostatistically-based heterogeneous models populated with fluid flow parameters from several reservoir sites in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (GOM).more » A computationally efficient uncertainty quantification study was conducted with results suggesting that permeability heterogeneity and anisotropy, seawater depth, and sediment thickness can all significantly impact CO 2 flow and trapping. Large permeability/porosity heterogeneity can enhance gravitational, capillary, and dissolution trapping, which acts to deter CO 2 upward migration and subsequent leakage onto the seafloor. When log permeability variance is 5, self-sealing with heterogeneity-enhanced gravitation trapping can be achieved even when water depth is 1.2 km. This extends the previously identified self-sealing condition that water depth be greater than 2.7 km. Our results have yielded valuable insight into the conditions under which safe storage of CO 2 can be achieved in offshore environments. The developed statistical framework is general and can be adapted to study other offshore sites worldwide.« less

Injectivity Evaluation for Offshore CO 2 Sequestration in Marine Sediments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dai, Zhenxue; Zhang, Ye; Stauffer, Philip

Global and regional climate change caused by greenhouse gases emissions has stimulated interest in developing various technologies (such as carbon dioxide (CO 2) geologic sequestration in brine reservoirs) to reduce the concentrations of CO 2 in the atmosphere. Our study develops a statistical framework to identify gravitational CO 2 trapping processes and to quantitatively evaluate both CO 2 injectivity (or storage capacity) and leakage potential from marine sediments which exhibit heterogeneous permeability and variable thicknesses. Here, we focus on sets of geostatistically-based heterogeneous models populated with fluid flow parameters from several reservoir sites in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (GOM).more » A computationally efficient uncertainty quantification study was conducted with results suggesting that permeability heterogeneity and anisotropy, seawater depth, and sediment thickness can all significantly impact CO 2 flow and trapping. Large permeability/porosity heterogeneity can enhance gravitational, capillary, and dissolution trapping, which acts to deter CO 2 upward migration and subsequent leakage onto the seafloor. When log permeability variance is 5, self-sealing with heterogeneity-enhanced gravitation trapping can be achieved even when water depth is 1.2 km. This extends the previously identified self-sealing condition that water depth be greater than 2.7 km. Our results have yielded valuable insight into the conditions under which safe storage of CO 2 can be achieved in offshore environments. The developed statistical framework is general and can be adapted to study other offshore sites worldwide.« less

Path Integrals for Electronic Densities, Reactivity Indices, and Localization Functions in Quantum Systems

PubMed Central

Putz, Mihai V.

2009-01-01

The density matrix theory, the ancestor of density functional theory, provides the immediate framework for Path Integral (PI) development, allowing the canonical density be extended for the many-electronic systems through the density functional closure relationship. Yet, the use of path integral formalism for electronic density prescription presents several advantages: assures the inner quantum mechanical description of the system by parameterized paths; averages the quantum fluctuations; behaves as the propagator for time-space evolution of quantum information; resembles Schrödinger equation; allows quantum statistical description of the system through partition function computing. In this framework, four levels of path integral formalism were presented: the Feynman quantum mechanical, the semiclassical, the Feynman-Kleinert effective classical, and the Fokker-Planck non-equilibrium ones. In each case the density matrix or/and the canonical density were rigorously defined and presented. The practical specializations for quantum free and harmonic motions, for statistical high and low temperature limits, the smearing justification for the Bohr’s quantum stability postulate with the paradigmatic Hydrogen atomic excursion, along the quantum chemical calculation of semiclassical electronegativity and hardness, of chemical action and Mulliken electronegativity, as well as by the Markovian generalizations of Becke-Edgecombe electronic focalization functions – all advocate for the reliability of assuming PI formalism of quantum mechanics as a versatile one, suited for analytically and/or computationally modeling of a variety of fundamental physical and chemical reactivity concepts characterizing the (density driving) many-electronic systems. PMID:20087467

Path integrals for electronic densities, reactivity indices, and localization functions in quantum systems.

PubMed

Putz, Mihai V

2009-11-10

The density matrix theory, the ancestor of density functional theory, provides the immediate framework for Path Integral (PI) development, allowing the canonical density be extended for the many-electronic systems through the density functional closure relationship. Yet, the use of path integral formalism for electronic density prescription presents several advantages: assures the inner quantum mechanical description of the system by parameterized paths; averages the quantum fluctuations; behaves as the propagator for time-space evolution of quantum information; resembles Schrödinger equation; allows quantum statistical description of the system through partition function computing. In this framework, four levels of path integral formalism were presented: the Feynman quantum mechanical, the semiclassical, the Feynman-Kleinert effective classical, and the Fokker-Planck non-equilibrium ones. In each case the density matrix or/and the canonical density were rigorously defined and presented. The practical specializations for quantum free and harmonic motions, for statistical high and low temperature limits, the smearing justification for the Bohr's quantum stability postulate with the paradigmatic Hydrogen atomic excursion, along the quantum chemical calculation of semiclassical electronegativity and hardness, of chemical action and Mulliken electronegativity, as well as by the Markovian generalizations of Becke-Edgecombe electronic focalization functions - all advocate for the reliability of assuming PI formalism of quantum mechanics as a versatile one, suited for analytically and/or computationally modeling of a variety of fundamental physical and chemical reactivity concepts characterizing the (density driving) many-electronic systems.

Differential gene expression detection and sample classification using penalized linear regression models.

PubMed

Wu, Baolin

2006-02-15

Differential gene expression detection and sample classification using microarray data have received much research interest recently. Owing to the large number of genes p and small number of samples n (p > n), microarray data analysis poses big challenges for statistical analysis. An obvious problem owing to the 'large p small n' is over-fitting. Just by chance, we are likely to find some non-differentially expressed genes that can classify the samples very well. The idea of shrinkage is to regularize the model parameters to reduce the effects of noise and produce reliable inferences. Shrinkage has been successfully applied in the microarray data analysis. The SAM statistics proposed by Tusher et al. and the 'nearest shrunken centroid' proposed by Tibshirani et al. are ad hoc shrinkage methods. Both methods are simple, intuitive and prove to be useful in empirical studies. Recently Wu proposed the penalized t/F-statistics with shrinkage by formally using the (1) penalized linear regression models for two-class microarray data, showing good performance. In this paper we systematically discussed the use of penalized regression models for analyzing microarray data. We generalize the two-class penalized t/F-statistics proposed by Wu to multi-class microarray data. We formally derive the ad hoc shrunken centroid used by Tibshirani et al. using the (1) penalized regression models. And we show that the penalized linear regression models provide a rigorous and unified statistical framework for sample classification and differential gene expression detection.

Compiling mortality statistics from civil registration systems in Viet Nam: the long road ahead.

PubMed

Rao, Chalapati; Osterberger, Brigitta; Anh, Tran Dam; MacDonald, Malcolm; Chúc, Nguyen Thi Kim; Hill, Peter S

2010-01-01

Accurate mortality statistics, needed for population health assessment, health policy and research, are best derived from data in vital registration systems. However, mortality statistics from vital registration systems are not available for several countries including Viet Nam. We used a mixed methods case study approach to assess vital registration operations in 2006 in three provinces in Viet Nam (Hòa Bình, Thùa Thiên-Hué and Bình Duong), and provide recommendations to strengthen vital registration systems in the country. For each province we developed life tables from population and mortality data compiled by sex and age group. Demographic methods were used to estimate completeness of death registration as an indicator of vital registration performance. Qualitative methods (document review, key informant interviews and focus group discussions) were used to assess administrative, technical and societal aspects of vital registration systems. Completeness of death registration was low in all three provinces. Problems were identified with the legal framework for registration of early neonatal deaths and deaths of temporary residents or migrants. The system does not conform to international standards for reporting cause of death or for recording detailed statistics by age, sex and cause of death. Capacity-building along with an intersectoral coordination committee involving the Ministries of Justice and Health and the General Statistics Office would improve the vital registration system, especially with regard to procedures for death registration. There appears to be strong political support for sentinel surveillance systems to generate reliable mortality statistics in Viet Nam.

New statistical scission-point model to predict fission fragment observables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemaître, Jean-François; Panebianco, Stefano; Sida, Jean-Luc; Hilaire, Stéphane; Heinrich, Sophie

2015-09-01

The development of high performance computing facilities makes possible a massive production of nuclear data in a full microscopic framework. Taking advantage of the individual potential calculations of more than 7000 nuclei, a new statistical scission-point model, called SPY, has been developed. It gives access to the absolute available energy at the scission point, which allows the use of a parameter-free microcanonical statistical description to calculate the distributions and the mean values of all fission observables. SPY uses the richness of microscopy in a rather simple theoretical framework, without any parameter except the scission-point definition, to draw clear answers based on perfect knowledge of the ingredients involved in the model, with very limited computing cost.

A trajectory generation framework for modeling spacecraft entry in MDAO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D`Souza, Sarah N.; Sarigul-Klijn, Nesrin

2016-04-01

In this paper a novel trajectory generation framework was developed that optimizes trajectory event conditions for use in a Generalized Entry Guidance algorithm. The framework was developed to be adaptable via the use of high fidelity equations of motion and drag based analytical bank profiles. Within this framework, a novel technique was implemented that resolved the sensitivity of the bank profile to atmospheric non-linearities. The framework's adaptability was established by running two different entry bank conditions. Each case yielded a reference trajectory and set of transition event conditions that are flight feasible and implementable in a Generalized Entry Guidance algorithm.

PRECISE:PRivacy-prEserving Cloud-assisted quality Improvement Service in hEalthcare

PubMed Central

Chen, Feng; Wang, Shuang; Mohammed, Noman; Cheng, Samuel; Jiang, Xiaoqian

2015-01-01

Quality improvement (QI) requires systematic and continuous efforts to enhance healthcare services. A healthcare provider might wish to compare local statistics with those from other institutions in order to identify problems and develop intervention to improve the quality of care. However, the sharing of institution information may be deterred by institutional privacy as publicizing such statistics could lead to embarrassment and even financial damage. In this article, we propose a PRivacy-prEserving Cloud-assisted quality Improvement Service in hEalthcare (PRECISE), which aims at enabling cross-institution comparison of healthcare statistics while protecting privacy. The proposed framework relies on a set of state-of-the-art cryptographic protocols including homomorphic encryption and Yao’s garbled circuit schemes. By securely pooling data from different institutions, PRECISE can rank the encrypted statistics to facilitate QI among participating institutes. We conducted experiments using MIMIC II database and demonstrated the feasibility of the proposed PRECISE framework. PMID:26146645

Steganalysis based on reducing the differences of image statistical characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ran; Niu, Shaozhang; Ping, Xijian; Zhang, Tao

2018-04-01

Compared with the process of embedding, the image contents make a more significant impact on the differences of image statistical characteristics. This makes the image steganalysis to be a classification problem with bigger withinclass scatter distances and smaller between-class scatter distances. As a result, the steganalysis features will be inseparate caused by the differences of image statistical characteristics. In this paper, a new steganalysis framework which can reduce the differences of image statistical characteristics caused by various content and processing methods is proposed. The given images are segmented to several sub-images according to the texture complexity. Steganalysis features are separately extracted from each subset with the same or close texture complexity to build a classifier. The final steganalysis result is figured out through a weighted fusing process. The theoretical analysis and experimental results can demonstrate the validity of the framework.

PRECISE:PRivacy-prEserving Cloud-assisted quality Improvement Service in hEalthcare.

PubMed

Chen, Feng; Wang, Shuang; Mohammed, Noman; Cheng, Samuel; Jiang, Xiaoqian

2014-10-01

Quality improvement (QI) requires systematic and continuous efforts to enhance healthcare services. A healthcare provider might wish to compare local statistics with those from other institutions in order to identify problems and develop intervention to improve the quality of care. However, the sharing of institution information may be deterred by institutional privacy as publicizing such statistics could lead to embarrassment and even financial damage. In this article, we propose a PRivacy-prEserving Cloud-assisted quality Improvement Service in hEalthcare (PRECISE), which aims at enabling cross-institution comparison of healthcare statistics while protecting privacy. The proposed framework relies on a set of state-of-the-art cryptographic protocols including homomorphic encryption and Yao's garbled circuit schemes. By securely pooling data from different institutions, PRECISE can rank the encrypted statistics to facilitate QI among participating institutes. We conducted experiments using MIMIC II database and demonstrated the feasibility of the proposed PRECISE framework.

Generating action descriptions from statistically integrated representations of human motions and sentences.

PubMed

Takano, Wataru; Kusajima, Ikuo; Nakamura, Yoshihiko

2016-08-01

It is desirable for robots to be able to linguistically understand human actions during human-robot interactions. Previous research has developed frameworks for encoding human full body motion into model parameters and for classifying motion into specific categories. For full understanding, the motion categories need to be connected to the natural language such that the robots can interpret human motions as linguistic expressions. This paper proposes a novel framework for integrating observation of human motion with that of natural language. This framework consists of two models; the first model statistically learns the relations between motions and their relevant words, and the second statistically learns sentence structures as word n-grams. Integration of these two models allows robots to generate sentences from human motions by searching for words relevant to the motion using the first model and then arranging these words in appropriate order using the second model. This allows making sentences that are the most likely to be generated from the motion. The proposed framework was tested on human full body motion measured by an optical motion capture system. In this, descriptive sentences were manually attached to the motions, and the validity of the system was demonstrated. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Something old, something new, something borrowed, something blue: a framework for the marriage of health econometrics and cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Hoch, Jeffrey S; Briggs, Andrew H; Willan, Andrew R

2002-07-01

Economic evaluation is often seen as a branch of health economics divorced from mainstream econometric techniques. Instead, it is perceived as relying on statistical methods for clinical trials. Furthermore, the statistic of interest in cost-effectiveness analysis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is not amenable to regression-based methods, hence the traditional reliance on comparing aggregate measures across the arms of a clinical trial. In this paper, we explore the potential for health economists undertaking cost-effectiveness analysis to exploit the plethora of established econometric techniques through the use of the net-benefit framework - a recently suggested reformulation of the cost-effectiveness problem that avoids the reliance on cost-effectiveness ratios and their associated statistical problems. This allows the formulation of the cost-effectiveness problem within a standard regression type framework. We provide an example with empirical data to illustrate how a regression type framework can enhance the net-benefit method. We go on to suggest that practical advantages of the net-benefit regression approach include being able to use established econometric techniques, adjust for imperfect randomisation, and identify important subgroups in order to estimate the marginal cost-effectiveness of an intervention. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Translating Extreme Precipitation Data from Climate Change Projections into Resilient Engineering Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, L. M.; Samaras, C.; Anderson, C.

2016-12-01

Engineers generally use historical precipitation trends to inform assumptions and parameters for long-lived infrastructure designs. However, resilient design calls for the adjustment of current engineering practice to incorporate a range of future climate conditions that are likely to be different than the past. Despite the availability of future projections from downscaled climate models, there remains a considerable mismatch between climate model outputs and the inputs needed in the engineering community to incorporate climate resiliency. These factors include differences in temporal and spatial scales, model uncertainties, and a lack of criteria for selection of an ensemble of models. This research addresses the limitations to working with climate data by providing a framework for the use of publicly available downscaled climate projections to inform engineering resiliency. The framework consists of five steps: 1) selecting the data source based on the engineering application, 2) extracting the data at a specific location, 3) validating for performance against observed data, 4) post-processing for bias or scale, and 5) selecting the ensemble and calculating statistics. The framework is illustrated with an example application to extreme precipitation-frequency statistics, the 25-year daily precipitation depth, using four publically available climate data sources: NARCCAP, USGS, Reclamation, and MACA. The attached figure presents the results for step 5 from the framework, analyzing how the 24H25Y depth changes when the model ensemble is culled based on model performance against observed data, for both post-processing techniques: bias-correction and change factor. Culling the model ensemble increases both the mean and median values for all data sources, and reduces range for NARCCAP and MACA ensembles due to elimination of poorer performing models, and in some cases, those that predict a decrease in future 24H25Y precipitation volumes. This result is especially relevant to engineers who wish to reduce the range of the ensemble and remove contradicting models; however, this result is not generalizable for all cases. Finally, this research highlights the need for the formation of an intermediate entity that is able to translate climate projections into relevant engineering information.

Marginal discrepancy of CAD-CAM complete-arch fixed implant-supported frameworks.

PubMed

Yilmaz, Burak; Kale, Ediz; Johnston, William M

2018-02-21

Computer-aided design and computer-aided manufacturing (CAD-CAM) high-density polymers (HDPs) have recently been marketed for the fabrication of long-term interim implant-supported fixed prostheses. However, information regarding the precision of fit of CAD-CAM HDP implant-supported complete-arch screw-retained prostheses is scarce. The purpose of this in vitro study was to evaluate the marginal discrepancy of CAD-CAM HDP complete-arch implant-supported screw-retained fixed prosthesis frameworks and compare them with conventional titanium (Ti) and zirconia (Zir) frameworks. A screw-retained complete-arch acrylic resin prototype with multiunit abutments was fabricated on a typodont model with 2 straight implants in the anterior region and 2 implants with a 30-degree distal tilt in the posterior region. A 3-dimensional (3D) laboratory laser scanner was used to digitize the typodont model with scan bodies and the resin prototype to generate a virtual 3D CAD framework. A CAM milling unit was used to fabricate 5 frameworks from HDP, Ti, and Zir blocks. The 1-screw test was performed by tightening the prosthetic screw in the maxillary left first molar abutment (terminal location) when the frameworks were on the typodont model, and the marginal discrepancy of frameworks was evaluated using an industrial computed tomographic scanner and a 3D volumetric software. The 3D marginal discrepancy at the abutment-framework interface of the maxillary left canine (L1), right canine (L2), and right first molar (L3) sites was measured. The mean values for 3D marginal discrepancy were calculated for each location in a group with 95% confidence limits. The results were analyzed by repeated-measures 2-way ANOVA using the restricted maximum likelihood estimation and the Satterthwaite degrees of freedom methods, which do not require normality and homoscedasticity in the data. The between-subjects factor was material, the within-subjects factor was location, and the interaction was included in the model. Tukey tests were applied to resolve any statistically significant source of variation (overall α=.05). The 3D marginal discrepancy measurement was possible only for L2 and L3 because the L1 values were too small to detect. The mean discrepancy values at L2 were 60 μm for HDP, 74 μm for Ti, and 84 μm for Zir. At the L3 location, the mean discrepancy values were 55 μm for HDP, 102 μm for Ti, and 94 μm for Zir. The ANOVA did not find a statistically significant overall effect for implant location (P=.072) or a statistically significant interaction of location and material (P=.078), but it did find a statistically significant overall effect of material (P=.019). Statistical differences were found overall between HDP and the other 2 materials (P≤.037). When the tested materials were used with the CAD-CAM system, the 3D marginal discrepancy of CAD-CAM HDP frameworks was smaller than that of titanium or zirconia frameworks. Copyright © 2017 Editorial Council for the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Framework for Restructuring the Military Retirement System

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-07-01

Associate Professor of Economics in the Social Sciences Department at West Point where he teaches econometrics and labor economics. His areas of...others worth considering, but each should be carefully benchmarked against our proposed framework. 25 ENDNOTES 1. Office of the Actuary , Statistical

Notes on a General Framework for Observed Score Equating. Research Report. ETS RR-08-59

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moses, Tim; Holland, Paul

2008-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to extend von Davier, Holland, and Thayer's (2004b) framework of kernel equating so that it can incorporate raw data and traditional equipercentile equating methods. One result of this more general framework is that previous equating methodology research can be viewed more comprehensively. Another result is that the…

Combination of statistical and physically based methods to assess shallow slide susceptibility at the basin scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliveira, Sérgio C.; Zêzere, José L.; Lajas, Sara; Melo, Raquel

2017-07-01

Approaches used to assess shallow slide susceptibility at the basin scale are conceptually different depending on the use of statistical or physically based methods. The former are based on the assumption that the same causes are more likely to produce the same effects, whereas the latter are based on the comparison between forces which tend to promote movement along the slope and the counteracting forces that are resistant to motion. Within this general framework, this work tests two hypotheses: (i) although conceptually and methodologically distinct, the statistical and deterministic methods generate similar shallow slide susceptibility results regarding the model's predictive capacity and spatial agreement; and (ii) the combination of shallow slide susceptibility maps obtained with statistical and physically based methods, for the same study area, generate a more reliable susceptibility model for shallow slide occurrence. These hypotheses were tested at a small test site (13.9 km2) located north of Lisbon (Portugal), using a statistical method (the information value method, IV) and a physically based method (the infinite slope method, IS). The landslide susceptibility maps produced with the statistical and deterministic methods were combined into a new landslide susceptibility map. The latter was based on a set of integration rules defined by the cross tabulation of the susceptibility classes of both maps and analysis of the corresponding contingency tables. The results demonstrate a higher predictive capacity of the new shallow slide susceptibility map, which combines the independent results obtained with statistical and physically based models. Moreover, the combination of the two models allowed the identification of areas where the results of the information value and the infinite slope methods are contradictory. Thus, these areas were classified as uncertain and deserve additional investigation at a more detailed scale.

From Interaction to Co-Association —A Fisher r-To-z Transformation-Based Simple Statistic for Real World Genome-Wide Association Study

PubMed Central

Yuan, Zhongshang; Liu, Hong; Zhang, Xiaoshuai; Li, Fangyu; Zhao, Jinghua; Zhang, Furen; Xue, Fuzhong

2013-01-01

Currently, the genetic variants identified by genome wide association study (GWAS) generally only account for a small proportion of the total heritability for complex disease. One crucial reason is the underutilization of gene-gene joint effects commonly encountered in GWAS, which includes their main effects and co-association. However, gene-gene co-association is often customarily put into the framework of gene-gene interaction vaguely. From the causal graph perspective, we elucidate in detail the concept and rationality of gene-gene co-association as well as its relationship with traditional gene-gene interaction, and propose two Fisher r-to-z transformation-based simple statistics to detect it. Three series of simulations further highlight that gene-gene co-association refers to the extent to which the joint effects of two genes differs from the main effects, not only due to the traditional interaction under the nearly independent condition but the correlation between two genes. The proposed statistics are more powerful than logistic regression under various situations, cannot be affected by linkage disequilibrium and can have acceptable false positive rate as long as strictly following the reasonable GWAS data analysis roadmap. Furthermore, an application to gene pathway analysis associated with leprosy confirms in practice that our proposed gene-gene co-association concepts as well as the correspondingly proposed statistics are strongly in line with reality. PMID:23923021

A statistical parts-based appearance model of inter-subject variability.

PubMed

Toews, Matthew; Collins, D Louis; Arbel, Tal

2006-01-01

In this article, we present a general statistical parts-based model for representing the appearance of an image set, applied to the problem of inter-subject MR brain image matching. In contrast with global image representations such as active appearance models, the parts-based model consists of a collection of localized image parts whose appearance, geometry and occurrence frequency are quantified statistically. The parts-based approach explicitly addresses the case where one-to-one correspondence does not exist between subjects due to anatomical differences, as parts are not expected to occur in all subjects. The model can be learned automatically, discovering structures that appear with statistical regularity in a large set of subject images, and can be robustly fit to new images, all in the presence of significant inter-subject variability. As parts are derived from generic scale-invariant features, the framework can be applied in a wide variety of image contexts, in order to study the commonality of anatomical parts or to group subjects according to the parts they share. Experimentation shows that a parts-based model can be learned from a large set of MR brain images, and used to determine parts that are common within the group of subjects. Preliminary results indicate that the model can be used to automatically identify distinctive features for inter-subject image registration despite large changes in appearance.

Linear and Order Statistics Combiners for Pattern Classification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tumer, Kagan; Ghosh, Joydeep; Lau, Sonie (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Several researchers have experimentally shown that substantial improvements can be obtained in difficult pattern recognition problems by combining or integrating the outputs of multiple classifiers. This chapter provides an analytical framework to quantify the improvements in classification results due to combining. The results apply to both linear combiners and order statistics combiners. We first show that to a first order approximation, the error rate obtained over and above the Bayes error rate, is directly proportional to the variance of the actual decision boundaries around the Bayes optimum boundary. Combining classifiers in output space reduces this variance, and hence reduces the 'added' error. If N unbiased classifiers are combined by simple averaging. the added error rate can be reduced by a factor of N if the individual errors in approximating the decision boundaries are uncorrelated. Expressions are then derived for linear combiners which are biased or correlated, and the effect of output correlations on ensemble performance is quantified. For order statistics based non-linear combiners, we derive expressions that indicate how much the median, the maximum and in general the i-th order statistic can improve classifier performance. The analysis presented here facilitates the understanding of the relationships among error rates, classifier boundary distributions, and combining in output space. Experimental results on several public domain data sets are provided to illustrate the benefits of combining and to support the analytical results.

Simulating statistics of lightning-induced and man made fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krenn, R.; Hergarten, S.

2009-04-01

The frequency-area distributions of forest fires show power-law behavior with scaling exponents α in a quite narrow range, relating wildfire research to the theoretical framework of self-organized criticality. Examples of self-organized critical behavior can be found in computer simulations of simple cellular automata. The established self-organized critical Drossel-Schwabl forest fire model (DS-FFM) is one of the most widespread models in this context. Despite its qualitative agreement with event-size statistics from nature, its applicability is still questioned. Apart from general concerns that the DS-FFM apparently oversimplifies the complex nature of forest dynamics, it significantly overestimates the frequency of large fires. We present a straightforward modification of the model rules that increases the scaling exponent α by approximately 1•3 and brings the simulated event-size statistics close to those observed in nature. In addition, combined simulations of both the original and the modified model predict a dependence of the overall distribution on the ratio of lightning induced and man made fires as well as a difference between their respective event-size statistics. The increase of the scaling exponent with decreasing lightning probability as well as the splitting of the partial distributions are confirmed by the analysis of the Canadian Large Fire Database. As a consequence, lightning induced and man made forest fires cannot be treated separately in wildfire modeling, hazard assessment and forest management.

Toward improved analysis of concentration data: Embracing nondetects.

PubMed

Shoari, Niloofar; Dubé, Jean-Sébastien

2018-03-01

Various statistical tests on concentration data serve to support decision-making regarding characterization and monitoring of contaminated media, assessing exposure to a chemical, and quantifying the associated risks. However, the routine statistical protocols cannot be directly applied because of challenges arising from nondetects or left-censored observations, which are concentration measurements below the detection limit of measuring instruments. Despite the existence of techniques based on survival analysis that can adjust for nondetects, these are seldom taken into account properly. A comprehensive review of the literature showed that managing policies regarding analysis of censored data do not always agree and that guidance from regulatory agencies may be outdated. Therefore, researchers and practitioners commonly resort to the most convenient way of tackling the censored data problem by substituting nondetects with arbitrary constants prior to data analysis, although this is generally regarded as a bias-prone approach. Hoping to improve the interpretation of concentration data, the present article aims to familiarize researchers in different disciplines with the significance of left-censored observations and provides theoretical and computational recommendations (under both frequentist and Bayesian frameworks) for adequate analysis of censored data. In particular, the present article synthesizes key findings from previous research with respect to 3 noteworthy aspects of inferential statistics: estimation of descriptive statistics, hypothesis testing, and regression analysis. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:643-656. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Probabilistic Graphical Model Representation in Phylogenetics

PubMed Central

Höhna, Sebastian; Heath, Tracy A.; Boussau, Bastien; Landis, Michael J.; Ronquist, Fredrik; Huelsenbeck, John P.

2014-01-01

Recent years have seen a rapid expansion of the model space explored in statistical phylogenetics, emphasizing the need for new approaches to statistical model representation and software development. Clear communication and representation of the chosen model is crucial for: (i) reproducibility of an analysis, (ii) model development, and (iii) software design. Moreover, a unified, clear and understandable framework for model representation lowers the barrier for beginners and nonspecialists to grasp complex phylogenetic models, including their assumptions and parameter/variable dependencies. Graphical modeling is a unifying framework that has gained in popularity in the statistical literature in recent years. The core idea is to break complex models into conditionally independent distributions. The strength lies in the comprehensibility, flexibility, and adaptability of this formalism, and the large body of computational work based on it. Graphical models are well-suited to teach statistical models, to facilitate communication among phylogeneticists and in the development of generic software for simulation and statistical inference. Here, we provide an introduction to graphical models for phylogeneticists and extend the standard graphical model representation to the realm of phylogenetics. We introduce a new graphical model component, tree plates, to capture the changing structure of the subgraph corresponding to a phylogenetic tree. We describe a range of phylogenetic models using the graphical model framework and introduce modules to simplify the representation of standard components in large and complex models. Phylogenetic model graphs can be readily used in simulation, maximum likelihood inference, and Bayesian inference using, for example, Metropolis–Hastings or Gibbs sampling of the posterior distribution. [Computation; graphical models; inference; modularization; statistical phylogenetics; tree plate.] PMID:24951559

Quantum Behavior of an Autonomous Maxwell Demon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, Adrian; Miyake, Akimasa

2015-03-01

A Maxwell Demon is an agent that can exploit knowledge of a system's microstate to perform useful work. The second law of thermodynamics is only recovered upon taking into account the work required to irreversibly update the demon's memory, bringing information theoretic concepts into a thermodynamic framework. Recently, there has been interest in modeling a classical Maxwell demon as an autonomous physical system to study this information-work tradeoff explicitly. Motivated by the idea that states with non-local entanglement structure can be used as a computational resource, we ask whether these states have thermodynamic resource quality as well by generalizing a particular classical autonomous Maxwell demon to the quantum regime. We treat the full quantum description using a matrix product operator formalism, which allows us to handle quantum and classical correlations in a unified framework. Applying this, together with techniques from statistical mechanics, we are able to approximate nonlocal quantities such as the erasure performed on the demon's memory register when correlations are present. Finally, we examine how the demon may use these correlations as a resource to outperform its classical counterpart.

Towards a general framework for predicting threat status of data-deficient species from phylogenetic, spatial and environmental information.

PubMed

Jetz, Walter; Freckleton, Robert P

2015-02-19

In taxon-wide assessments of threat status many species remain not included owing to lack of data. Here, we present a novel spatial-phylogenetic statistical framework that uses a small set of readily available or derivable characteristics, including phylogenetically imputed body mass and remotely sensed human encroachment, to provide initial baseline predictions of threat status for data-deficient species. Applied to assessed mammal species worldwide, the approach effectively identifies threatened species and predicts the geographical variation in threat. For the 483 data-deficient species, the models predict highly elevated threat, with 69% 'at-risk' species in this set, compared with 22% among assessed species. This results in 331 additional potentially threatened mammals, with elevated conservation importance in rodents, bats and shrews, and countries like Colombia, Sulawesi and the Philippines. These findings demonstrate the future potential for combining phylogenies and remotely sensed data with species distributions to identify species and regions of conservation concern. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Continuum mesoscopic framework for multiple interacting species and processes on multiple site types and/or crystallographic planes.

PubMed

Chatterjee, Abhijit; Vlachos, Dionisios G

2007-07-21

While recently derived continuum mesoscopic equations successfully bridge the gap between microscopic and macroscopic physics, so far they have been derived only for simple lattice models. In this paper, general deterministic continuum mesoscopic equations are derived rigorously via nonequilibrium statistical mechanics to account for multiple interacting surface species and multiple processes on multiple site types and/or different crystallographic planes. Adsorption, desorption, reaction, and surface diffusion are modeled. It is demonstrated that contrary to conventional phenomenological continuum models, microscopic physics, such as the interaction potential, determines the final form of the mesoscopic equation. Models of single component diffusion and binary diffusion of interacting particles on single-type site lattice and of single component diffusion on complex microporous materials' lattices consisting of two types of sites are derived, as illustrations of the mesoscopic framework. Simplification of the diffusion mesoscopic model illustrates the relation to phenomenological models, such as the Fickian and Maxwell-Stefan transport models. It is demonstrated that the mesoscopic equations are in good agreement with lattice kinetic Monte Carlo simulations for several prototype examples studied.

Digital Alchemy for Materials Design: Colloids and Beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Anders, Greg; Klotsa, Daphne; Karas, Andrew; Dodd, Paul; Glotzer, Sharon

Starting with the early alchemists, a holy grail of science has been to make desired materials by manipulating basic building blocks. Building blocks that show promise for assembling new complex materials can be synthesized at the nanoscale with attributes that would astonish the ancient alchemists in their versatility. However, this versatility means that connecting building-block attributes to bulk structure is both necessary for rationally engineering materials and difficult because building block attributes can be altered in many ways. We show how to exploit the malleability of colloidal nanoparticle ``elements'' to quantitatively link building-block attributes to bulk structure through a statistical thermodynamic framework we term ``digital alchemy''. We use this framework to optimize building blocks for a given target structure and to determine which building-block attributes are most important to control for self-assembly, through a set of novel thermodynamic response functions. We thereby establish direct links between the attributes of colloidal building blocks and the bulk structures they form. Moreover, our results give concrete solutions to the more general conceptual challenge of optimizing emergent behaviors in nature and can be applied to other types of matter.

Detection and mapping of delays in early cortical folding derived from in utero MRI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habas, Piotr A.; Rajagopalan, Vidya; Scott, Julia A.; Kim, Kio; Roosta, Ahmad; Rousseau, Francois; Barkovich, A. James; Glenn, Orit A.; Studholme, Colin

2011-03-01

Understanding human brain development in utero and detecting cortical abnormalities related to specific clinical conditions is an important area of research. In this paper, we describe and evaluate methodology for detection and mapping of delays in early cortical folding from population-based studies of fetal brain anatomies imaged in utero. We use a general linear modeling framework to describe spatiotemporal changes in curvature of the developing brain and explore the ability to detect and localize delays in cortical folding in the presence of uncertainty in estimation of the fetal age. We apply permutation testing to examine which regions of the brain surface provide the most statistical power to detect a given folding delay at a given developmental stage. The presented methodology is evaluated using MR scans of fetuses with normal brain development and gestational ages ranging from 20.57 to 27.86 weeks. This period is critical in early cortical folding and the formation of the primary and secondary sulci. Finally, we demonstrate a clinical application of the framework for detection and localization of folding delays in fetuses with isolated mild ventriculomegaly.

Development of an audit method to assess the prevalence of the ACGME's general competencies in an undergraduate medical education curriculum.

PubMed

Mooney, Christopher J; Lurie, Stephen J; Lyness, Jeffrey M; Lambert, David R; Guzick, David S

2010-10-01

Despite the use of competency-based frameworks to evaluate physicians, the role of competency-based objectives in undergraduate medical education remains uncertain. By use of an audit methodology, we sought to determine how the six Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) competencies, conceptualized as educational domains, would map onto an undergraduate medical curriculum. Standardized audit forms listing required activities were provided to course directors, who were then asked to indicate which of the domains were represented in each activity. Descriptive statistics were calculated. Of 1,500 activities, there was a mean of 2.13 domains per activity. Medical Knowledge was the most prevalent (44%), followed by Patient Care (20%), Interpersonal and Communication Skills (12%), Professionalism (9%), Systems-Based Practice (8%), and Practice-Based Learning and Improvement (7%). There was considerable variation by year and course. The domains provide a useful framework for organizing didactic components. Faculty can also consider activities in light of the domains, providing a vocabulary for instituting curricular change and innovation.

Charting molecular free-energy landscapes with an atlas of collective variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashemian, Behrooz; Millán, Daniel; Arroyo, Marino

2016-11-01

Collective variables (CVs) are a fundamental tool to understand molecular flexibility, to compute free energy landscapes, and to enhance sampling in molecular dynamics simulations. However, identifying suitable CVs is challenging, and is increasingly addressed with systematic data-driven manifold learning techniques. Here, we provide a flexible framework to model molecular systems in terms of a collection of locally valid and partially overlapping CVs: an atlas of CVs. The specific motivation for such a framework is to enhance the applicability and robustness of CVs based on manifold learning methods, which fail in the presence of periodicities in the underlying conformational manifold. More generally, using an atlas of CVs rather than a single chart may help us better describe different regions of conformational space. We develop the statistical mechanics foundation for our multi-chart description and propose an algorithmic implementation. The resulting atlas of data-based CVs are then used to enhance sampling and compute free energy surfaces in two model systems, alanine dipeptide and β-D-glucopyranose, whose conformational manifolds have toroidal and spherical topologies.

Probabilistic Common Spatial Patterns for Multichannel EEG Analysis

PubMed Central

Chen, Zhe; Gao, Xiaorong; Li, Yuanqing; Brown, Emery N.; Gao, Shangkai

2015-01-01

Common spatial patterns (CSP) is a well-known spatial filtering algorithm for multichannel electroencephalogram (EEG) analysis. In this paper, we cast the CSP algorithm in a probabilistic modeling setting. Specifically, probabilistic CSP (P-CSP) is proposed as a generic EEG spatio-temporal modeling framework that subsumes the CSP and regularized CSP algorithms. The proposed framework enables us to resolve the overfitting issue of CSP in a principled manner. We derive statistical inference algorithms that can alleviate the issue of local optima. In particular, an efficient algorithm based on eigendecomposition is developed for maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation in the case of isotropic noise. For more general cases, a variational algorithm is developed for group-wise sparse Bayesian learning for the P-CSP model and for automatically determining the model size. The two proposed algorithms are validated on a simulated data set. Their practical efficacy is also demonstrated by successful applications to single-trial classifications of three motor imagery EEG data sets and by the spatio-temporal pattern analysis of one EEG data set recorded in a Stroop color naming task. PMID:26005228

Putting Cognitive Science behind a Statistics Teacher's Intuition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Karrie A.; Jones, Jennifer L.; Vermette, Paul J.

2011-01-01

Recent advances in cognitive science have led to an enriched understanding of how people learn. Using a framework presented by Willingham, this article examines instructional best practice from the perspective of conceptual understanding and its implications on statistics education.

A general framework of automorphic inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schimmrigk, Rolf

2016-05-01

Automorphic inflation is an application of the framework of automorphic scalar field theory, based on the theory of automorphic forms and representations. In this paper the general framework of automorphic and modular inflation is described in some detail, with emphasis on the resulting stratification of the space of scalar field theories in terms of the group theoretic data associated to the shift symmetry, as well as the automorphic data that specifies the potential. The class of theories based on Eisenstein series provides a natural generalization of the model of j-inflation considered previously.

Improved statistical power with a sparse shape model in detecting an aging effect in the hippocampus and amygdala

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chung, Moo K.; Kim, Seung-Goo; Schaefer, Stacey M.; van Reekum, Carien M.; Peschke-Schmitz, Lara; Sutterer, Matthew J.; Davidson, Richard J.

2014-03-01

The sparse regression framework has been widely used in medical image processing and analysis. However, it has been rarely used in anatomical studies. We present a sparse shape modeling framework using the Laplace- Beltrami (LB) eigenfunctions of the underlying shape and show its improvement of statistical power. Tradition- ally, the LB-eigenfunctions are used as a basis for intrinsically representing surface shapes as a form of Fourier descriptors. To reduce high frequency noise, only the first few terms are used in the expansion and higher frequency terms are simply thrown away. However, some lower frequency terms may not necessarily contribute significantly in reconstructing the surfaces. Motivated by this idea, we present a LB-based method to filter out only the significant eigenfunctions by imposing a sparse penalty. For dense anatomical data such as deformation fields on a surface mesh, the sparse regression behaves like a smoothing process, which will reduce the error of incorrectly detecting false negatives. Hence the statistical power improves. The sparse shape model is then applied in investigating the influence of age on amygdala and hippocampus shapes in the normal population. The advantage of the LB sparse framework is demonstrated by showing the increased statistical power.

Assessing Cultural Competence in Graduating Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kohli, Hermeet K.; Kohli, Amarpreet S.; Huber, Ruth; Faul, Anna C.

2010-01-01

Twofold purpose of this study was to develop a framework to understand cultural competence in graduating social work students, and test that framework for appropriateness and predictability using multivariate statistics. Scale and predictor variables were collected using an online instrument from a nationwide convenience sample of graduating…

Statistical framework for detection of genetically modified organisms based on Next Generation Sequencing.

PubMed

Willems, Sander; Fraiture, Marie-Alice; Deforce, Dieter; De Keersmaecker, Sigrid C J; De Loose, Marc; Ruttink, Tom; Herman, Philippe; Van Nieuwerburgh, Filip; Roosens, Nancy

2016-02-01

Because the number and diversity of genetically modified (GM) crops has significantly increased, their analysis based on real-time PCR (qPCR) methods is becoming increasingly complex and laborious. While several pioneers already investigated Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) as an alternative to qPCR, its practical use has not been assessed for routine analysis. In this study a statistical framework was developed to predict the number of NGS reads needed to detect transgene sequences, to prove their integration into the host genome and to identify the specific transgene event in a sample with known composition. This framework was validated by applying it to experimental data from food matrices composed of pure GM rice, processed GM rice (noodles) or a 10% GM/non-GM rice mixture, revealing some influential factors. Finally, feasibility of NGS for routine analysis of GM crops was investigated by applying the framework to samples commonly encountered in routine analysis of GM crops. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Quantum approach to classical statistical mechanics.

PubMed

Somma, R D; Batista, C D; Ortiz, G

2007-07-20

We present a new approach to study the thermodynamic properties of d-dimensional classical systems by reducing the problem to the computation of ground state properties of a d-dimensional quantum model. This classical-to-quantum mapping allows us to extend the scope of standard optimization methods by unifying them under a general framework. The quantum annealing method is naturally extended to simulate classical systems at finite temperatures. We derive the rates to assure convergence to the optimal thermodynamic state using the adiabatic theorem of quantum mechanics. For simulated and quantum annealing, we obtain the asymptotic rates of T(t) approximately (pN)/(k(B)logt) and gamma(t) approximately (Nt)(-c/N), for the temperature and magnetic field, respectively. Other annealing strategies are also discussed.

GENOPT 2016: Design of a generalization-based challenge in global optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battiti, Roberto; Sergeyev, Yaroslav; Brunato, Mauro; Kvasov, Dmitri

2016-10-01

While comparing results on benchmark functions is a widely used practice to demonstrate the competitiveness of global optimization algorithms, fixed benchmarks can lead to a negative data mining process. To avoid this negative effect, the GENOPT contest benchmarks can be used which are based on randomized function generators, designed for scientific experiments, with fixed statistical characteristics but individual variation of the generated instances. The generators are available to participants for off-line tests and online tuning schemes, but the final competition is based on random seeds communicated in the last phase through a cooperative process. A brief presentation and discussion of the methods and results obtained in the framework of the GENOPT contest are given in this contribution.

Tissue multifractality and hidden Markov model based integrated framework for optimum precancer detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhopadhyay, Sabyasachi; Das, Nandan K.; Kurmi, Indrajit; Pradhan, Asima; Ghosh, Nirmalya; Panigrahi, Prasanta K.

2017-10-01

We report the application of a hidden Markov model (HMM) on multifractal tissue optical properties derived via the Born approximation-based inverse light scattering method for effective discrimination of precancerous human cervical tissue sites from the normal ones. Two global fractal parameters, generalized Hurst exponent and the corresponding singularity spectrum width, computed by multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA), are used here as potential biomarkers. We develop a methodology that makes use of these multifractal parameters by integrating with different statistical classifiers like the HMM and support vector machine (SVM). It is shown that the MFDFA-HMM integrated model achieves significantly better discrimination between normal and different grades of cancer as compared to the MFDFA-SVM integrated model.

Validity criteria for Fermi's golden rule scattering rates applied to metallic nanowires.

PubMed

Moors, Kristof; Sorée, Bart; Magnus, Wim

2016-09-14

Fermi's golden rule underpins the investigation of mobile carriers propagating through various solids, being a standard tool to calculate their scattering rates. As such, it provides a perturbative estimate under the implicit assumption that the effect of the interaction Hamiltonian which causes the scattering events is sufficiently small. To check the validity of this assumption, we present a general framework to derive simple validity criteria in order to assess whether the scattering rates can be trusted for the system under consideration, given its statistical properties such as average size, electron density, impurity density et cetera. We derive concrete validity criteria for metallic nanowires with conduction electrons populating a single parabolic band subjected to different elastic scattering mechanisms: impurities, grain boundaries and surface roughness.

The death spiral: predicting death in Drosophila cohorts.

PubMed

Mueller, Laurence D; Shahrestani, Parvin; Rauser, Casandra L; Rose, Michael R

2016-11-01

Drosophila research has identified a new feature of aging that has been called the death spiral. The death spiral is a period prior to death during which there is a decline in life-history characters, such as fecundity, as well as physiological characters. First, we review the data from the Drosophila and medfly literature that suggest the existence of death spirals. Second, we re-analyze five cases with such data from four laboratories using a generalized statistical framework, a re-analysis that strengthens the case for the salience of the death spiral phenomenon. Third, we raise the issue whether death spirals need to be taken into account in the analysis of functional characters over age, in aging research with model species as well as human data.

Higher-order correlations for fluctuations in the presence of fields.

PubMed

Boer, A; Dumitru, S

2002-10-01

The higher-order moments of the fluctuations for thermodynamic systems in the presence of fields are investigated in the framework of a theoretical method. The method uses a generalized statistical ensemble consistent with an adequate expression for the internal energy. The applications refer to the case of a system in a magnetoquasistatic field. In the case of linear magnetic media, one finds that, for the description of the magnetic induction fluctuations, the Gaussian approximation is satisfactory. For nonlinear media, the corresponding fluctuations are non-Gaussian, having a non-null asymmetry. Furthermore, the respective fluctuations have characteristics of leptokurtic, mesokurtic and platykurtic type, depending on the value of the magnetic field strength as compared with a scaling factor of the magnetization curve.

Granger-causality maps of diffusion processes.

PubMed

Wahl, Benjamin; Feudel, Ulrike; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Wächter, Matthias; Peinke, Joachim; Freund, Jan A

2016-02-01

Granger causality is a statistical concept devised to reconstruct and quantify predictive information flow between stochastic processes. Although the general concept can be formulated model-free it is often considered in the framework of linear stochastic processes. Here we show how local linear model descriptions can be employed to extend Granger causality into the realm of nonlinear systems. This novel treatment results in maps that resolve Granger causality in regions of state space. Through examples we provide a proof of concept and illustrate the utility of these maps. Moreover, by integration we convert the local Granger causality into a global measure that yields a consistent picture for a global Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Finally, we recover invariance transformations known from the theory of autoregressive processes.

Visitor experience and resource protection framework in the National Park System: rationale, current status, and future direction

Treesearch

Marilyn Hof; David W. Lime

1997-01-01

The Visitor Experience and Resource Protection (VERP) framework was developed by the National Park Service to address carrying capacity questions associated with visitation-related resource impacts and impacts to the quality of visitor experiences. The framework can be applied as part of a park’s general management planning process (general management plans, GMPs), to...

PARTONS: PARtonic Tomography Of Nucleon Software. A computing framework for the phenomenology of Generalized Parton Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berthou, B.; Binosi, D.; Chouika, N.; Colaneri, L.; Guidal, M.; Mezrag, C.; Moutarde, H.; Rodríguez-Quintero, J.; Sabatié, F.; Sznajder, P.; Wagner, J.

2018-06-01

We describe the architecture and functionalities of a C++ software framework, coined PARTONS, dedicated to the phenomenology of Generalized Parton Distributions. These distributions describe the three-dimensional structure of hadrons in terms of quarks and gluons, and can be accessed in deeply exclusive lepto- or photo-production of mesons or photons. PARTONS provides a necessary bridge between models of Generalized Parton Distributions and experimental data collected in various exclusive production channels. We outline the specification of the PARTONS framework in terms of practical needs, physical content and numerical capacity. This framework will be useful for physicists - theorists or experimentalists - not only to develop new models, but also to interpret existing measurements and even design new experiments.

Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Atmospheric Predictors: Improved Assessment of Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonis; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino

2015-04-01

To improve the level skill of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistics of rainfall at a basin level and at hydrologically relevant temporal scales (e.g. daily), two types of statistical approaches have been suggested. One is the statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs using historical series of precipitation. The other is the use of stochastic models of rainfall to conditionally simulate precipitation series, based on large-scale atmospheric predictors produced by climate models (e.g. geopotential height, relative vorticity, divergence, mean sea level pressure). The latter approach, usually referred to as statistical rainfall downscaling, aims at reproducing the statistical character of rainfall, while accounting for the effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation (and, therefore, climate forcing) on rainfall statistics. While promising, statistical rainfall downscaling has not attracted much attention in recent years, since the suggested approaches involved complex (i.e. subjective or computationally intense) identification procedures of the local weather, in addition to demonstrating limited success in reproducing several statistical features of rainfall, such as seasonal variations, the distributions of dry and wet spell lengths, the distribution of the mean rainfall intensity inside wet periods, and the distribution of rainfall extremes. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings, Langousis and Kaleris (2014) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables, which accurately reproduces the statistical character of rainfall at multiple time-scales. Here, we study the relative performance of: a) quantile-quantile (Q-Q) correction of climate model rainfall products, and b) the statistical downscaling scheme of Langousis and Kaleris (2014), in reproducing the statistical structure of rainfall, as well as rainfall extremes, at a regional level. This is done for an intermediate-sized catchment in Italy, i.e. the Flumendosa catchment, using climate model rainfall and atmospheric data from the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensembleseu.metoffice.com). In doing so, we split the historical rainfall record of mean areal precipitation (MAP) in 15-year calibration and 45-year validation periods, and compare the historical rainfall statistics to those obtained from: a) Q-Q corrected climate model rainfall products, and b) synthetic rainfall series generated by the suggested downscaling scheme. To our knowledge, this is the first time that climate model rainfall and statistically downscaled precipitation are compared to catchment-averaged MAP at a daily resolution. The obtained results are promising, since the proposed downscaling scheme is more accurate and robust in reproducing a number of historical rainfall statistics, independent of the climate model used and the length of the calibration period. This is particularly the case for the yearly rainfall maxima, where direct statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs shows increased sensitivity to the length of the calibration period and the climate model used. The robustness of the suggested downscaling scheme in modeling rainfall extremes at a daily resolution, is a notable feature that can effectively be used to assess hydrologic risk at a regional level under changing climatic conditions. Acknowledgments The research project is implemented within the framework of the Action «Supporting Postdoctoral Researchers» of the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" (Action's Beneficiary: General Secretariat for Research and Technology), and is co-financed by the European Social Fund (ESF) and the Greek State. CRS4 highly acknowledges the contribution of the Sardinian regional authorities.

Statistical Analysis of CFD Solutions from the Drag Prediction Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hemsch, Michael J.

2002-01-01

A simple, graphical framework is presented for robust statistical evaluation of results obtained from N-Version testing of a series of RANS CFD codes. The solutions were obtained by a variety of code developers and users for the June 2001 Drag Prediction Workshop sponsored by the AIAA Applied Aerodynamics Technical Committee. The aerodynamic configuration used for the computational tests is the DLR-F4 wing-body combination previously tested in several European wind tunnels and for which a previous N-Version test had been conducted. The statistical framework is used to evaluate code results for (1) a single cruise design point, (2) drag polars and (3) drag rise. The paper concludes with a discussion of the meaning of the results, especially with respect to predictability, Validation, and reporting of solutions.

EFFECTS-BASED CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT IN A LOW-INCOME URBAN COMMUNITY NEAR A SUPERFUND SITE

EPA Science Inventory

We will introduce into the cumulative risk assessment framework novel methods for non-cancer risk assessment, techniques for dose-response modeling that extend insights from chemical mixtures frameworks to non-chemical stressors, multilevel statistical methods used to address ...

Liaison psychiatry for older adults in the general hospital: service activity, development and outcomes.

PubMed

Mujic, Fedza; Cairns, Ruth; Mak, Vivienne; Squire, Clare; Wells, Andrew; Al-Harrasi, Ahmed; Prince, Martin

2018-02-01

Aims and method This study used data collected to describe the activity, case-load characteristics and outcome measures for all patients seen during a 6-year period. The service reviewed 2153 patients over 6 years with referral rates and case-load characteristics comparable to those described in a previous study period. The team saw 82% of patients on the day they were referred. Data and outcome measures collected showed significant complexity in the cases seen and statistically significant improvement in Health of the Nation Outcome Scales (HoNOS) scores following service input. Clinical implications The outcome measures used were limited, but the study supports the need for specialist liaison psychiatry for older adults (LPOA) services in the general hospital. The Framework of Outcome Measures - Liaison Psychiatry has now been introduced, but it remains unclear how valid this is in LPOA. It is of note that cost-effectiveness secondary to service input and training activities are not adequately monitored. Declaration of interest None.

Approximated adjusted fractional Bayes factors: A general method for testing informative hypotheses.

PubMed

Gu, Xin; Mulder, Joris; Hoijtink, Herbert

2018-05-01

Informative hypotheses are increasingly being used in psychological sciences because they adequately capture researchers' theories and expectations. In the Bayesian framework, the evaluation of informative hypotheses often makes use of default Bayes factors such as the fractional Bayes factor. This paper approximates and adjusts the fractional Bayes factor such that it can be used to evaluate informative hypotheses in general statistical models. In the fractional Bayes factor a fraction parameter must be specified which controls the amount of information in the data used for specifying an implicit prior. The remaining fraction is used for testing the informative hypotheses. We discuss different choices of this parameter and present a scheme for setting it. Furthermore, a software package is described which computes the approximated adjusted fractional Bayes factor. Using this software package, psychological researchers can evaluate informative hypotheses by means of Bayes factors in an easy manner. Two empirical examples are used to illustrate the procedure. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Does Context Matter? Examining PRISM as a Guiding Framework for Context-Specific Health Risk Information Seeking Among Young Adults.

PubMed

Willoughby, Jessica Fitts; Myrick, Jessica Gall

2016-06-01

Research indicates that when people seek health information, they typically look for information about a specific symptom, preventive measure, disease, or treatment. It is unclear, however, whether general or disease-specific theoretical models best predict how people search for health information. We surveyed undergraduates (N = 963) at a large public southeastern university to examine health information seeking in two incongruent health contexts (sexual health and cancer) to test whether a general model would hold for specific topics that differed in their immediate personal relevance for the target population. We found that the planned risk information seeking model was statistically a good fit for the data. Yet multiple predicted paths were not supported in either data set. Certain variables, such as attitudes, norms, and affect, appear to be strong predictors of intentions to seek information across health contexts. Implications for theory building, research methodology, and applied work in health-related risk information seeking are discussed.

Gyrofluid modeling and phenomenology of low-βe Alfvén wave turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passot, T.; Sulem, P. L.; Tassi, E.

2018-04-01

A two-field reduced gyrofluid model including electron inertia, ion finite Larmor radius corrections, and parallel magnetic field fluctuations is derived from the model of Brizard [Brizard, Phys. Fluids B 4, 1213 (1992)]. It assumes low βe, where βe indicates the ratio between the equilibrium electron pressure and the magnetic pressure exerted by a strong uniform magnetic guide field, but permits an arbitrary ion-to-electron equilibrium temperature ratio. It is shown to have a noncanonical Hamiltonian structure and provides a convenient framework for studying kinetic Alfvén wave turbulence, from magnetohydrodynamics to sub-de scales (where de holds for the electron skin depth). Magnetic energy spectra are phenomenologically determined within energy and generalized cross-helicity cascades in the perpendicular spectral plane. Arguments based on absolute statistical equilibria are used to predict the direction of the transfers, pointing out that, within the sub-ion range, the generalized cross-helicity could display an inverse cascade if injected at small scales, for example by reconnection processes.

Personality assessment and model comparison with behavioral data: A statistical framework and empirical demonstration with bonobos (Pan paniscus).

PubMed

Martin, Jordan S; Suarez, Scott A

2017-08-01

Interest in quantifying consistent among-individual variation in primate behavior, also known as personality, has grown rapidly in recent decades. Although behavioral coding is the most frequently utilized method for assessing primate personality, limitations in current statistical practice prevent researchers' from utilizing the full potential of their coding datasets. These limitations include the use of extensive data aggregation, not modeling biologically relevant sources of individual variance during repeatability estimation, not partitioning between-individual (co)variance prior to modeling personality structure, the misuse of principal component analysis, and an over-reliance upon exploratory statistical techniques to compare personality models across populations, species, and data collection methods. In this paper, we propose a statistical framework for primate personality research designed to address these limitations. Our framework synthesizes recently developed mixed-effects modeling approaches for quantifying behavioral variation with an information-theoretic model selection paradigm for confirmatory personality research. After detailing a multi-step analytic procedure for personality assessment and model comparison, we employ this framework to evaluate seven models of personality structure in zoo-housed bonobos (Pan paniscus). We find that differences between sexes, ages, zoos, time of observation, and social group composition contributed to significant behavioral variance. Independently of these factors, however, personality nonetheless accounted for a moderate to high proportion of variance in average behavior across observational periods. A personality structure derived from past rating research receives the strongest support relative to our model set. This model suggests that personality variation across the measured behavioral traits is best described by two correlated but distinct dimensions reflecting individual differences in affiliation and sociability (Agreeableness) as well as activity level, social play, and neophilia toward non-threatening stimuli (Openness). These results underscore the utility of our framework for quantifying personality in primates and facilitating greater integration between the behavioral ecological and comparative psychological approaches to personality research. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Foundational Principles for Large-Scale Inference: Illustrations Through Correlation Mining

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hero, Alfred O.; Rajaratnam, Bala

When can reliable inference be drawn in the ‘‘Big Data’’ context? This article presents a framework for answering this fundamental question in the context of correlation mining, with implications for general large-scale inference. In large-scale data applications like genomics, connectomics, and eco-informatics, the data set is often variable rich but sample starved: a regime where the number n of acquired samples (statistical replicates) is far fewer than the number p of observed variables (genes, neurons, voxels, or chemical constituents). Much of recent work has focused on understanding the computational complexity of proposed methods for ‘‘Big Data.’’ Sample complexity, however, hasmore » received relatively less attention, especially in the setting when the sample size n is fixed, and the dimension p grows without bound. To address this gap, we develop a unified statistical framework that explicitly quantifies the sample complexity of various inferential tasks. Sampling regimes can be divided into several categories: 1) the classical asymptotic regime where the variable dimension is fixed and the sample size goes to infinity; 2) the mixed asymptotic regime where both variable dimension and sample size go to infinity at comparable rates; and 3) the purely high-dimensional asymptotic regime where the variable dimension goes to infinity and the sample size is fixed. Each regime has its niche but only the latter regime applies to exa-scale data dimension. We illustrate this high-dimensional framework for the problem of correlation mining, where it is the matrix of pairwise and partial correlations among the variables that are of interest. Correlation mining arises in numerous applications and subsumes the regression context as a special case. We demonstrate various regimes of correlation mining based on the unifying perspective of high-dimensional learning rates and sample complexity for different structured covariance models and different inference tasks.« less

Foundational Principles for Large-Scale Inference: Illustrations Through Correlation Mining

PubMed Central

Hero, Alfred O.; Rajaratnam, Bala

2015-01-01

When can reliable inference be drawn in fue “Big Data” context? This paper presents a framework for answering this fundamental question in the context of correlation mining, wifu implications for general large scale inference. In large scale data applications like genomics, connectomics, and eco-informatics fue dataset is often variable-rich but sample-starved: a regime where the number n of acquired samples (statistical replicates) is far fewer than fue number p of observed variables (genes, neurons, voxels, or chemical constituents). Much of recent work has focused on understanding the computational complexity of proposed methods for “Big Data”. Sample complexity however has received relatively less attention, especially in the setting when the sample size n is fixed, and the dimension p grows without bound. To address fuis gap, we develop a unified statistical framework that explicitly quantifies the sample complexity of various inferential tasks. Sampling regimes can be divided into several categories: 1) the classical asymptotic regime where fue variable dimension is fixed and fue sample size goes to infinity; 2) the mixed asymptotic regime where both variable dimension and sample size go to infinity at comparable rates; 3) the purely high dimensional asymptotic regime where the variable dimension goes to infinity and the sample size is fixed. Each regime has its niche but only the latter regime applies to exa cale data dimension. We illustrate this high dimensional framework for the problem of correlation mining, where it is the matrix of pairwise and partial correlations among the variables fua t are of interest. Correlation mining arises in numerous applications and subsumes the regression context as a special case. we demonstrate various regimes of correlation mining based on the unifying perspective of high dimensional learning rates and sample complexity for different structured covariance models and different inference tasks. PMID:27087700

Foundational Principles for Large-Scale Inference: Illustrations Through Correlation Mining

DOE PAGES

Hero, Alfred O.; Rajaratnam, Bala

2015-12-09

When can reliable inference be drawn in the ‘‘Big Data’’ context? This article presents a framework for answering this fundamental question in the context of correlation mining, with implications for general large-scale inference. In large-scale data applications like genomics, connectomics, and eco-informatics, the data set is often variable rich but sample starved: a regime where the number n of acquired samples (statistical replicates) is far fewer than the number p of observed variables (genes, neurons, voxels, or chemical constituents). Much of recent work has focused on understanding the computational complexity of proposed methods for ‘‘Big Data.’’ Sample complexity, however, hasmore » received relatively less attention, especially in the setting when the sample size n is fixed, and the dimension p grows without bound. To address this gap, we develop a unified statistical framework that explicitly quantifies the sample complexity of various inferential tasks. Sampling regimes can be divided into several categories: 1) the classical asymptotic regime where the variable dimension is fixed and the sample size goes to infinity; 2) the mixed asymptotic regime where both variable dimension and sample size go to infinity at comparable rates; and 3) the purely high-dimensional asymptotic regime where the variable dimension goes to infinity and the sample size is fixed. Each regime has its niche but only the latter regime applies to exa-scale data dimension. We illustrate this high-dimensional framework for the problem of correlation mining, where it is the matrix of pairwise and partial correlations among the variables that are of interest. Correlation mining arises in numerous applications and subsumes the regression context as a special case. We demonstrate various regimes of correlation mining based on the unifying perspective of high-dimensional learning rates and sample complexity for different structured covariance models and different inference tasks.« less

A framework for developing rural academic general practices: a qualitative case study in rural Victoria.

PubMed

Brown, J B; Morrison, Tracy; Bryant, Melanie; Kassell, Lisa; Nestel, Debra

2015-01-01

There is increasing pressure for Australian rural general practices to engage in educational delivery as a means of addressing workforce issues and accommodating substantial increases in learners. For practices that have now developed a strong focus on education, there is the challenge to complement this by engaging in research activity. This study develops a rural academic general practice framework to assist rural practices in developing both comprehensive educational activity and a strong research focus thus moving towards functioning as mature academic units. A case study research design was used with the unit of analysis at the level of the rural general practice. Purposively sampled practices were recruited and individual interviews conducted with staff (supervisors, practice managers, nurses), learners (medical students, interns and registrars) and patients. Three practices hosted 'multi-level learners', two practices hosted one learner group and one had no learners. Forty-four individual interviews were conducted with staff, learners and patients. Audio recordings were transcribed for thematic analysis. After initial inductive coding, deductive analysis was undertaken with reference to recent literature and the expertise of the research team resulting in the rural academic general practice framework. Three key themes emerged with embedded subthemes. For the first theme, organisational considerations, subthemes were values/vision/culture, patient population and clinical services, staffing, physical infrastructure/equipment, funding streams and governance. For the second theme, educational considerations, subthemes were processes, clinical supervision, educational networks and learner presence. Third, for research considerations, there were the subthemes of attitude to research and research activity. The framework maps the development of a rural academic practice across these themes in four progressive stages: beginning, emerging, consolidating and established. The data enabled a framework to be constructed to map rural general practice activity with respect to activity characteristic of an academic general practice. The framework offers guidance to practices seeking to transition towards becoming a mature academic practice. The framework also offers guidance to educational institutions and funding bodies to support the development of academic activity in rural general practices. The strengths and limitations of the study design are outlined.

Quantum Mechanics and the Principle of Least Radix Economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Morales, Vladimir

2015-03-01

A new variational method, the principle of least radix economy, is formulated. The mathematical and physical relevance of the radix economy, also called digit capacity, is established, showing how physical laws can be derived from this concept in a unified way. The principle reinterprets and generalizes the principle of least action yielding two classes of physical solutions: least action paths and quantum wavefunctions. A new physical foundation of the Hilbert space of quantum mechanics is then accomplished and it is used to derive the Schrödinger and Dirac equations and the breaking of the commutativity of spacetime geometry. The formulation provides an explanation of how determinism and random statistical behavior coexist in spacetime and a framework is developed that allows dynamical processes to be formulated in terms of chains of digits. These methods lead to a new (pre-geometrical) foundation for Lorentz transformations and special relativity. The Parker-Rhodes combinatorial hierarchy is encompassed within our approach and this leads to an estimate of the interaction strength of the electromagnetic and gravitational forces that agrees with the experimental values to an error of less than one thousandth. Finally, it is shown how the principle of least-radix economy naturally gives rise to Boltzmann's principle of classical statistical thermodynamics. A new expression for a general (path-dependent) nonequilibrium entropy is proposed satisfying the Second Law of Thermodynamics.

Cross-frequency and band-averaged response variance prediction in the hybrid deterministic-statistical energy analysis method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynders, Edwin P. B.; Langley, Robin S.

2018-08-01

The hybrid deterministic-statistical energy analysis method has proven to be a versatile framework for modeling built-up vibro-acoustic systems. The stiff system components are modeled deterministically, e.g., using the finite element method, while the wave fields in the flexible components are modeled as diffuse. In the present paper, the hybrid method is extended such that not only the ensemble mean and variance of the harmonic system response can be computed, but also of the band-averaged system response. This variance represents the uncertainty that is due to the assumption of a diffuse field in the flexible components of the hybrid system. The developments start with a cross-frequency generalization of the reciprocity relationship between the total energy in a diffuse field and the cross spectrum of the blocked reverberant loading at the boundaries of that field. By making extensive use of this generalization in a first-order perturbation analysis, explicit expressions are derived for the cross-frequency and band-averaged variance of the vibrational energies in the diffuse components and for the cross-frequency and band-averaged variance of the cross spectrum of the vibro-acoustic field response of the deterministic components. These expressions are extensively validated against detailed Monte Carlo analyses of coupled plate systems in which diffuse fields are simulated by randomly distributing small point masses across the flexible components, and good agreement is found.

Pairwise Maximum Entropy Models for Studying Large Biological Systems: When They Can Work and When They Can't

PubMed Central

Roudi, Yasser; Nirenberg, Sheila; Latham, Peter E.

2009-01-01

One of the most critical problems we face in the study of biological systems is building accurate statistical descriptions of them. This problem has been particularly challenging because biological systems typically contain large numbers of interacting elements, which precludes the use of standard brute force approaches. Recently, though, several groups have reported that there may be an alternate strategy. The reports show that reliable statistical models can be built without knowledge of all the interactions in a system; instead, pairwise interactions can suffice. These findings, however, are based on the analysis of small subsystems. Here, we ask whether the observations will generalize to systems of realistic size, that is, whether pairwise models will provide reliable descriptions of true biological systems. Our results show that, in most cases, they will not. The reason is that there is a crossover in the predictive power of pairwise models: If the size of the subsystem is below the crossover point, then the results have no predictive power for large systems. If the size is above the crossover point, then the results may have predictive power. This work thus provides a general framework for determining the extent to which pairwise models can be used to predict the behavior of large biological systems. Applied to neural data, the size of most systems studied so far is below the crossover point. PMID:19424487