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Sample records for glasgow prognostic score

  1. Prognostic Value of the Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score in Patients Undergoing Radical Surgery for Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Ni, Xiao-Chun; Yi, Yong; Fu, Yi-Peng; He, Hong-Wei; Cai, Xiao-Yan; Wang, Jia-Xing; Zhou, Jian; Cheng, Yun-Feng; Jin, Jian-Jun; Fan, Jia; Qiu, Shuang-Jian

    2015-09-01

    There is increasing and consistent evidence concerning the association of systemic inflammation and poor outcome in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study was to identify a superior inflammation-based prognostic scoring system for patients with HCC undergoing hepatectomy.We analyzed two independent cohorts of a total of 723 patients with HCC who underwent radical surgery between 2010 and 2012. The prognostic value of the inflammation scores, including the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), modified GPS (mGPS), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, platelet lymphocyte ratio, prognostic index, and prognostic nutritional index, as well as the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer and Cancer of the Liver Italian Program staging systems was analyzed in a test cohort of 367 patients and validated in a validation cohort of 356 patients.A high score with the mGPS was associated with large tumor size, vascular invasion, and advanced clinical stage. Multivariate analysis showed that the mGPS was independently associated with overall survival and disease-free survival, and had a higher area under the curve value in comparison with other inflammation-based scores.The results of this study demonstrated that the mGPS is an independent marker of poor prognosis in patients with resectable HCC and is superior to other inflammation-based scores. PMID:26356714

  2. Prognostic Role of Glasgow Prognostic Score in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Li, Mu-xing; Bi, Xin-yu; Li, Zhi-yu; Huang, Zhen; Han, Yue; Zhou, Jian-guo; Zhao, Jian-jun; Zhang, Ye-fan; Zhao, Hong; Cai, Jian-qiang

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Conflicting results about the prognostic value of Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients have been reported. We searched the available articles and performed the meta-analysis to clarify the predictive value of GPS in HCC patients’ outcome. A systematic literature search was conducted using PubMed (Medline), Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, ChinaInfo, and Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure for all years up to September 2015. Studies analyzing the relationship of GPS and survival outcome were identified. Hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated to assess the risk. A total of 10 studies were finally enrolled in the meta-analysis. The pooled estimates demonstrated a significant relationship between elevated GPS and inferior overall survival in patients with HCC (HR = 2.156, 95% CI: 1.696–2.740, P < 0.001). Patients with increased GPS had a tendency toward shorter progression-free survival (HR = 1.755, 95% CI: 0.943–3.265, P = 0.076). And elevated GPS was found to be significantly associated with advanced Child–Pugh class (odds ratio = 25.979, 95% CI: 6.159–109.573, P < 0.001). The publication bias analysis revealed that there was publication bias in the meta-analysis. Glasgow Prognostic Score may be an independent prognostic factor in patients with HCC. More well-designed studies with adequate follow-up duration are warranted. PMID:26656342

  3. Prognostic importance of the inflammation-based Glasgow prognostic score in patients with gastric cancer

    PubMed Central

    Jiang, X; Hiki, N; Nunobe, S; Kumagai, K; Kubota, T; Aikou, S; Sano, T; Yamaguchi, T

    2012-01-01

    Background: The inflammation-based Glasgow prognostic score (GPS) has been shown to be a prognostic factor for a variety of tumours. This study investigates the significance of the modified GPS (mGPS) for the prognosis of patients with gastric cancer. Methods: The mGPS (0=C-reactive protein (CRP)⩽10 mg l−1, 1=CRP>10 mg l−1 and 2=CRP>10 mg l−1 and albumin<35 g l−1) was calculated on the basis of preoperative data for 1710 patients with gastric cancer who underwent surgery between January 2000 and December 2007. Patients were given an mGPS of 0, 1 or 2. The prognostic significance was analysed by univariate and multivariate analyses. Results: Increased mGPS was associated with male patient, old age, low body mass index, increased white cell count and neutrophils, elevated carcinoembryonic antigen and CA19-9 and advanced tumour stage. Kaplan–Meier analysis and log-rank test revealed that a higher mGPS predicted a higher risk of postoperative mortality in both relative early-stage (stage I; P<0.001) and advanced-stage cancer (stage II, III and IV; P<0.001). Multivariate analysis demonstrated the mGPS to be a risk factor for postoperative mortality (odds ratio 1.845; 95% confidence interval 1.184–2.875; P=0.007). Conclusion: The preoperative mGPS is a simple and useful prognostic factor for postoperative survival in patients with gastric cancer. PMID:22713657

  4. [Assessment of Cachexia in Head and Neck Cancer Patients Based on a Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score].

    PubMed

    Matsuzuka, Takashi; Suzuki, Masahiro; Saijoh, Satoshi; Ikeda, Masakazu; Imaizumi, Mitsumasa; Nomoto, Yukio; Matsui, Takamichi; Tada, Yasuhiro; Omori, Koichi

    2016-02-01

    We retrospectively analyzed 54 patients who died of head and neck squamous cell caricinoma regarding the process and duration of cachexia using the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS). The patients were classified as having cachexia when the serum albumin level was less than 3.5 mg/dL and the C-reactive protein (CRP) level was more than 0.5 mg/dL. The number of patients with cachexia was eight (8%) at the first visit and 50 (93%) at the time of death. In the 50 patients, the median and average time of having cachexia was 59 and 95 days, respectively. Thirty-two of the 50 patients (64%) died within three months after the presence of cachexia was confirmed. In this study, the time of having cachexia was so short, then the policy of care should be converted from aggressive into supportive in patients classified as having cachexia. mGPS would be an accurate assessment tool for cachexia and ascertain the end stage of head and neck cancer patients. PMID:27149710

  5. Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) can be a useful indicator to determine prognosis of patients with colorectal carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Nozoe, Tadahiro; Matono, Rumi; Ijichi, Hideki; Ohga, Takefumi; Ezaki, Takahiro

    2014-01-01

    The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), an inflammation-based score, has been used to predict the biologic behavior of malignant tumors. The aim of the current study was to elucidate a further significance of GPS in colorectal carcinoma. Correlation of GPS and modified GPS (mGPS), which are composed of combined score provided for serum elevation of C-reactive protein and hypoalbuminemia examined before surgical treatment, with clinicopathologic features was investigated in 272 patients with colorectal carcinoma. Survival of GPS 1 patients was significantly worse than that of GPS 0 patients (P= 0.009), and survival of GPS 2 patients was significantly worse than that of GPS 1 patients (P < 0.0001). Similarly, survival of mGPS 1 patients was significantly worse than that of mGPS 0 patients (P = 0.009), and survival of mGPS 2 patients was significantly worse than that of mGPS 1 patients (P = 0.0006). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that GPS (P < 0.0001) as well as tumor stage (P= 0.004) and venous invasion (P = 0.011) were factors independently associated with worse prognosis. Both GPS and mGPS could classify outcome of patients with a clear stratification, and could be applied as prognostic indicators in colorectal carcinoma.

  6. Procalcitonin Improves the Glasgow Prognostic Score for Outcome Prediction in Emergency Patients with Cancer: A Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Rast, Anna Christina; Kutz, Alexander; Felder, Susan; Faessler, Lukas; Steiner, Deborah; Laukemann, Svenja; Haubitz, Sebastian; Huber, Andreas; Buergi, Ulrich; Conca, Antoinette; Reutlinger, Barbara; Mueller, Beat; Bargetzi, Mario; Schuetz, Philipp

    2015-01-01

    The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) is useful for predicting long-term mortality in cancer patients. Our aim was to validate the GPS in ED patients with different cancer-related urgency and investigate whether biomarkers would improve its accuracy. We followed consecutive medical patients presenting with a cancer-related medical urgency to a tertiary care hospital in Switzerland. Upon admission, we measured procalcitonin (PCT), white blood cell count, urea, 25-hydroxyvitamin D, corrected calcium, C-reactive protein, and albumin and calculated the GPS. Of 341 included patients (median age 68 years, 61% males), 81 (23.8%) died within 30 days after admission. The GPS showed moderate prognostic accuracy (AUC 0.67) for mortality. Among the different biomarkers, PCT provided the highest prognostic accuracy (odds ratio 1.6 (95% confidence interval 1.3 to 1.9), P < 0.001, AUC 0.69) and significantly improved the GPS to a combined AUC of 0.74 (P = 0.007). Considering all investigated biomarkers, the AUC increased to 0.76 (P < 0.001). The GPS performance was significantly improved by the addition of PCT and other biomarkers for risk stratification in ED cancer patients. The benefit of early risk stratification by the GPS in combination with biomarkers from different pathways should be investigated in further interventional trials. PMID:25861154

  7. Towards a simple objective framework for the investigation and treatment of cancer cachexia: the Glasgow Prognostic Score.

    PubMed

    Douglas, Euan; McMillan, Donald C

    2014-07-01

    Progress in the treatment of progressive involuntary weight loss in patients with cancer (cancer cachexia) remains dismally slow. Cancer cachexia and its associated clinical symptoms, including weight loss, altered body composition, poor functional status, poor food intake, and poorer quality of life, have long been recognised as indicators of poorer prognosis in the patient with cancer. In order to make some progress a starting point is to have general agreement on what constitutes cancer cachexia. In recent years a plethora of different definitions and consensus statements have been proposed as a framework for investigation and treatment of this debilitating and terminal condition. However, there are significant differences in the criteria used in these and all include poorly defined or subjective criteria and their prognostic value has not been established. The aim of the present review was to examine the hypothesis that a systemic inflammatory response accounts for most of the effect of cancer cachexia and its associated clinical symptoms on poor outcome in patients with cancer. Furthermore, to put forward the case for the Glasgow Prognostic Score to act a simple objective framework for the investigation and treatment of cancer cachexia.

  8. The relationship between nutritional status and the Glasgow prognostic score in patients with cancer of the esophagus and stomach.

    PubMed

    da Silva, Jacqueline Braga; Maurício, Sílvia Fernandes; Bering, Tatiana; Correia, Maria Isabel T D

    2013-01-01

    A relationship between weight loss and inflammation has been described in patients with cancer. In the present study, the relationship between subjective global assessment (SGA) and the severity of inflammation, as defined by Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), as well as the relationship of both of these measures with the presence of complications and survival time, was assessed. In addition, we compared the diagnosis given by SGA with parameters of nutritional assessment, such as body mass index, triceps skinfold, midarm circumference (MAC), midarm muscle circumference (MAMC), phase angle (PA), adductor pollicis muscle thickness (APMT), and handgrip strength (HGS). According to the SGA, the nutritional status was associated with the GPS (P < 0.05), and both the SGA and GPS were associated with the presence of complications. However, the GPS [area under the curve (AUC): 0.77, P < 0.05, confidence interval (CI) = 0.580, 0.956] seems to be more accurate in identifying complications than the SGA (AUC: 0.679, P < 0.05, CI = 0.426, 0.931). Only GPS was associated with survival time. Comparing the different nutritional assessment methods with the SGA suggested that the MAC, MAMC, APMT, PA, and HGS parameters may be helpful in differentiating between nourished and malnourished patients, if new cutoffs are adopted. PMID:23368910

  9. Pretreatment Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score Predicts Clinical Outcomes After Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Early-Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Kishi, Takahiro; Matsuo, Yukinori Ueki, Nami; Iizuka, Yusuke; Nakamura, Akira; Sakanaka, Katsuyuki; Mizowaki, Takashi; Hiraoka, Masahiro

    2015-07-01

    Purpose: This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic significance of the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who received stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). Methods and Materials: Data from 165 patients who underwent SBRT for stage I NSCLC with histologic confirmation from January 1999 to September 2010 were collected retrospectively. Factors, including age, performance status, histology, Charlson comorbidity index, mGPS, and recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) class based on sex and T stage, were evaluated with regard to overall survival (OS) using the Cox proportional hazards model. The impact of the mGPS on cause of death and failure patterns was also analyzed. Results: The 3-year OS was 57.9%, with a median follow-up time of 3.5 years. A higher mGPS correlated significantly with poor OS (P<.001). The 3-year OS of lower mGPS patients was 66.4%, whereas that of higher mGPS patients was 44.5%. On multivariate analysis, mGPS and RPA class were significant factors for OS. A higher mGPS correlated significantly with lung cancer death (P=.019) and distant metastasis (P=.013). Conclusions: The mGPS was a significant predictor of clinical outcomes for SBRT in NSCLC patients.

  10. Gait and Glasgow Coma Scale scores can predict functional recovery in patients with traumatic brain injury.

    PubMed

    Bilgin, Sevil; Guclu-Gunduz, Arzu; Oruckaptan, Hakan; Kose, Nezire; Celik, Bülent

    2012-09-01

    Fifty-one patients with mild (n = 14), moderate (n = 10) and severe traumatic brain injury (n = 27) received early rehabilitation. Level of consciousness was evaluated using the Glasgow Coma Score. Functional level was determined using the Glasgow Outcome Score, whilst mobility was evaluated using the Mobility Scale for Acute Stroke. Activities of daily living were assessed using the Barthel Index. Following Bobath neurodevelopmental therapy, the level of consciousness was significantly improved in patients with moderate and severe traumatic brain injury, but was not greatly influenced in patients with mild traumatic brain injury. Mobility and functional level were significantly improved in patients with mild, moderate and severe traumatic brain injury. Gait recovery was more obvious in patients with mild traumatic brain injury than in patients with moderate and severe traumatic brain injury. Activities of daily living showed an improvement but this was insignificant except for patients with severe traumatic brain injury. Nevertheless, complete recovery was not acquired at discharge. Multiple regression analysis showed that gait and Glasgow Coma Scale scores can be considered predictors of functional outcomes following traumatic brain injury. PMID:25624828

  11. A Survey of Attitudes towards the Clinical Application of Systemic Inflammation Based Prognostic Scores in Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Watt, David G.; Roxburgh, Campbell S.; White, Mark; Chan, Juen Zhik; Horgan, Paul G.; McMillan, Donald C.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction. The systemic inflammatory response (SIR) plays a key role in determining nutritional status and survival of patients with cancer. A number of objective scoring systems have been shown to have prognostic value; however, their application in routine clinical practice is not clear. The aim of the present survey was to examine the range of opinions internationally on the routine use of these scoring systems. Methods. An online survey was distributed to a target group consisting of individuals worldwide who have reported an interest in systemic inflammation in patients with cancer. Results. Of those invited by the survey (n = 238), 65% routinely measured the SIR, mainly for research and prognostication purposes and clinically for allocation of adjuvant therapy or palliative chemotherapy. 40% reported that they currently used the Glasgow Prognostic Score/modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS/mGPS) and 81% reported that a measure of systemic inflammation should be incorporated into clinical guidelines, such as the definition of cachexia. Conclusions. The majority of respondents routinely measured the SIR in patients with cancer, mainly using the GPS/mGPS for research and prognostication purposes. The majority reported that a measure of the SIR should be adopted into clinical guidelines. PMID:26504363

  12. Glasgow Coma Scores, early opioids, and posttraumatic stress disorder among combat amputees.

    PubMed

    Melcer, Ted; Walker, Jay; Sechriest, V Franklin; Lebedda, Martin; Quinn, Kimberly; Galarneau, Michael

    2014-04-01

    A recent study found that combat amputees had a reduced prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) compared with nonamputees with serious extremity injuries. We hypothesized that an extended period of impaired consciousness or early treatment with morphine could prevent consolidation of traumatic memory and the development of PTSD. To examine this hypothesis, we retrospectively reviewed 258 combat casualty records from the Iraq or Afghanistan conflicts from 2001-2008 in the Expeditionary Medical Encounter Database, including medications and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores recorded at in-theater facilities within hours of the index injury. All patients sustained amputations from injuries. Psychological diagnoses were extracted from medical records for 24 months postinjury. None of 20 patients (0%) with GCS scores of 12 or lower had PTSD compared to 20% of patients with GCS scores of 12 or greater who did have PTSD. For patients with traumatic brain injury, those treated with intravenous morphine within hours of injury had a significantly lower prevalence of PTSD (6.3%) and mood disorders (15.6%) compared to patients treated with fentanyl only (prevalence of PTSD = 41.2%, prevalence of mood disorder = 47.1%). GCS scores and morphine and fentanyl treatments were not significantly associated with adjustment, anxiety, or substance abuse disorders. PMID:24668780

  13. 30-Day Mortality in Acute Pulmonary Embolism: Prognostic Value of Clinical Scores and Anamnestic Features

    PubMed Central

    Bach, Andreas Gunter; Taute, Bettina-Maria; Baasai, Nansalmaa; Wienke, Andreas; Meyer, Hans Jonas; Schramm, Dominik; Surov, Alexey

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Identification of high-risk patients with pulmonary embolism is vital. The aim of the present study was to examine clinical scores, their single items, and anamnestic features in their ability to predict 30-day mortality. Materials and Methods A retrospective, single-center study from 06/2005 to 01/2010 was performed. Inclusion criteria were presence of pulmonary embolism, availability of patient records and 30-day follow-up. The following clinical scores were calculated: Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, original and simplified pulmonary embolism severity index, Glasgow Coma Scale, and euroSCORE II. Results In the study group of 365 patients 39 patients (10.7%) died within 30 days due to pulmonary embolism. From all examined scores and parameters the best predictor of 30-day mortality were the Glasgow Coma scale (≤ 10) and parameters of the circulatory system including presence of mechanical ventilation, arterial pH (< 7.335), and systolic blood pressure (< 99 mm Hg). Conclusions Easy to ascertain circulatory parameters have the same or higher prognostic value than the clinical scores that were applied in this study. From all clinical scores studied the Glasgow Coma Scale was the most time- and cost-efficient one. PMID:26866472

  14. Fuzzy logic-based prognostic score for outcome prediction in esophageal cancer.

    PubMed

    Wang, Chang-Yu; Lee, Tsair-Fwu; Fang, Chun-Hsiung; Chou, Jyh-Horng

    2012-11-01

    Given the poor prognosis of esophageal cancer and the invasiveness of combined modality treatment, improved prognostic scoring systems are needed. We developed a fuzzy logic-based system to improve the predictive performance of a risk score based on the serum concentrations of C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin in a cohort of 271 patients with esophageal cancer before radiotherapy. Univariate and multivariate survival analyses were employed to validate the independent prognostic value of the fuzzy risk score. To further compare the predictive performance of the fuzzy risk score with other prognostic scoring systems, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was used. Application of fuzzy logic to the serum values of CRP and albumin increased predictive performance for 1-year overall survival (AUC=0.773) compared with that of a single marker (AUC=0.743 and 0.700 for CRP and albumin, respectively), where the AUC denotes the area under curve. This fuzzy logic-based approach also performed consistently better than the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) (AUC=0.745). Thus, application of fuzzy logic to the analysis of serum markers can more accurately predict the outcome for patients with esophageal cancer.

  15. Predicting Outcome in Acute Organophosphorus Poisoning with a Poison Severity Score or the Glasgow Coma Scale

    PubMed Central

    Davies, James O. J.; Eddleston, Michael; Buckley, Nick A.

    2008-01-01

    Background: Organophosphorus pesticide poisoning kills around 200,000 people each year, principally due to self poisoning in the Asia-Pacific region. Aim: We wished to assess whether patients at high risk of death could be identified accurately using clinical parameters soon after hospital admission. Design: We evaluated the usefulness of the International Program on Chemical Safety Poison Severity Score (IPCS PSS) and the Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) prospectively for predicting death in patients poisoned by organophosphorus pesticides. Methods: Data were collected as part of a multicentre cohort study in Sri Lanka. Study doctors saw all patients on admission, collecting data on pulse, blood pressure, pupil size, need for intubation, and GCS. Results: 1365 patients with a history of acute organophosphorus poisoning were included. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated for the IPCS PSS and GCS on admission. The IPCS PSS and GCS had similar ROC area under the curves (AUC) and best cut points as determined by Youden's index (AUC/sensitivity/specificity 0.81/0.78/0.79 for IPCS PSS ≥ grade 2 and 0.84/0.79/0.79 for GCS ≤13). The predictive value varied with the pesticide ingested, being more accurate for dimethoate poisoning and less accurate for fenthion poisoning (GCS AUC 0.91 compared to 0.69). Conclusions: GCS and the IPCS PSS were similarly effective at predicting outcome. Patients presenting with a GCS ≤ 13 need intensive monitoring and treatment. However, the identity of the organophosphate must be taken into account since the half of all patients who died from fenthion poisoning only had mild symptoms at presentation. PMID:18319295

  16. The prognostic value of the Glasgow coma scale, serum acetylcholinesterase and leukocyte levels in acute organophosphorus poisoning

    PubMed Central

    Cander, Basar; Dur, Ali; Yildiz, Mesut; Koyuncu, Feridun; Girisgin, Abdullah Sadik; Gul, Mehmet; Okumus, Mehmet

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Organophosphate poisoning (OP) is a serious clinical condition that may sometimes be fatal. The aim of this study was to determine whether the Glasgow coma scale (GCS), and serum acetylcholinesterase and leukocyte levels have prognostic value in acute OP poisoning. DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective review of records of patients admitted to the intensive care unit of Selcuk University, Meram Medical Faculty, Emergency Department, Konya, Turkey, between January 2006 and January 2009. METHODS: We studied acutely OP-poisoned patients admitted within 24 hours after OP exposure. RESULTS: The mean age of the 25 patients was 37 years (range, 20-80 years). Three (12%) of the 25 patients (male-female ratio, 12:13) died. The mean GCS values of the patients who died were significantly lower compared to those of the group that survived (4 vs 11.7, respectively P<.05). While the mean serum acetylcholinesterase levels were lower in the patients who died, the difference in the mean serum acetylcholinesterase levels between the patients who died and the ones who survived was not statistically significant (3841 IU/L vs. 1768 IU/L, respectively). CONCLUSION: Although serum cholinesterase values can be used in the quick diagnosis, their efficiency at predicting outcome in patients with OP poisoning has not been established. It has also been determined that serum leukocyte values have no prognostic value in OP poisoning, but GCS values have been found to be effective in predicting the outcome. PMID:21422653

  17. A new prognostic score based on the systemic inflammatory response in patients with inoperable non-small-cell lung cancer

    PubMed Central

    Zhu, Lizhen; Li, Xiaofen; Shen, Yanwei; Cao, Ying; Fang, Xuefeng; Chen, Jiaqi; Yuan, Ying

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Pretreatment systemic inflammatory response has been confirmed to have prognostic value in patients with inoperable non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Increasing studies show that the modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS), a prognostic score based on C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin, is a prognostic factor in these patients. This study was aimed at recognizing possible prognostic factors and new prognostic scores of inoperable NSCLC based on pretreatment systemic inflammatory response. Patients and methods We retrospectively reviewed the clinicopathological data of 105 patients with inoperable NSCLC who received first-line chemotherapy as initial treatment. Univariate and multivariate analyses of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) for prognostic factors and scores were performed. Results The serum CRP, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), cancer antigen 125 (CA125), and pathological type were independent pretreatment prognostic factors for PFS and OS. A new score was assembled by CRP, LDH, and CA125. In multivariate analysis, when the mGPS and the new score were covariates, only the new score retained independent prognostic value for both PFS (P<0.001; hazard ratio =2.12; 95% confidence interval: 1.60–2.82) and OS (P<0.001; hazard ratio =1.82; 95% confidence interval: 1.33–2.48). Conclusion The new score based on pretreatment serum level of CRP, LDH, and CA125, indicates the prognosis of both PFS and OS in patients with inoperable NSCLC who were treated with first-line systemic chemotherapy, and it was found to be more effective than mGPS. PMID:27540301

  18. A Prognostic Model Using Inflammation- and Nutrition-Based Scores in Patients With Metastatic Gastric Adenocarcinoma Treated With Chemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Hsieh, Meng-Che; Wang, Shih-Hor; Chuah, Seng-Kee; Lin, Yu-Hung; Lan, Jui; Rau, Kun-Ming

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The outcomes of patients with metastatic gastric cancer (mGC) are poor. Recent studies have identified the prognostic impact of inflammatory response and nutritional status on survival for patients with gastric cancer. This study aims to create a prognostic model using inflammatory- and nutrition-based scores to predict survival in patients with mGC treated with chemotherapy. After institutional review board approval, patients who had mGC and were treated with chemotherapy from 2007 to 2012 at Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital were retrospectively reviewed. Significantly predictive factors were identified by multivariate Cox regression analyses. Based on these variables, a prognostic model using inflammatory- and nutrition-based scores was constructed to predict survival. Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted to estimate overall survival. The c-statistic values with 95% confidence interval (CI) were also calculated to access their predicting performances. Our study consisted of 256 patients with a median age of 60 years and a median follow-up visit of 18.5 months. Multivariate analyses showed that neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS), and Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) were independently related to survival. After computing these scores, patients were classified into favorable-, intermediate-, and poor-risk groups. The median overall survival were 27.6 versus 13.2 versus 8.2 months in favorable, intermediate, and poor-risk groups, respectively. The 2-year survival rate was 52% versus 16% versus 3% in favorable-, intermediate-, and poor-risk groups, respectively. (P < 0.001). The c-statistic value of our model at 2 years is 0.8 (95% CI, 0.75–0.86). NLR, mGPS, and PG-SGA were independently related to survival. Our prognostic model using inflammatory- and nutrition-based scores could provide prognostic information to patients and physicians. PMID:27124056

  19. Development of a prognostic scoring system for resectable hepatocellular carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Sposito, Carlo; Di Sandro, Stefano; Brunero, Federica; Buscemi, Vincenzo; Battiston, Carlo; Lauterio, Andrea; Bongini, Marco; De Carlis, Luciano; Mazzaferro, Vincenzo

    2016-01-01

    AIM To develop a prognostic scoring system for overall survival (OS) of patients undergoing liver resection (LR) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). METHODS Consecutive patients who underwent curative LR for HCC between 2000 and 2013 were identified. The series was randomly divided into a training and a validation set. A multivariable Cox model for OS was fitted to the training set. The beta coefficients derived from the Cox model were used to define a prognostic scoring system for OS. The survival stratification was then tested, and the prognostic scoring system was compared with the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL)/American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) surgical criteria by means of Harrell’s C statistics. RESULTS A total of 917 patients were considered. Five variables independently correlated with post-LR survival: Model for End-stage Liver Disease score, hepatitis C virus infection, number of nodules, largest diameter and vascular invasion. Three risk classes were identified, and OS for the three risk classes was significantly different both in the training (P < 0.0001) and the validation set (P = 0.0002). Overall, 69.4% of patients were in the low-risk class, whereas only 37.8% were eligible to surgery according to EASL/AASLD. Survival of patients in the low-risk class was not significantly different compared with surgical indication for EASL/AASLD guidelines (77.2 mo vs 82.5 mo respectively, P = 0.22). Comparison of Harrell’s C statistics revealed no significant difference in predictive power between the two systems (-0.00999, P = 0.667). CONCLUSION This study established a new prognostic scoring system that may stratify HCC patients suitable for surgery, expanding surgical eligibility with respect to EASL/AASLD criteria with no harm on survival. PMID:27688661

  20. Development of a prognostic scoring system for resectable hepatocellular carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Sposito, Carlo; Di Sandro, Stefano; Brunero, Federica; Buscemi, Vincenzo; Battiston, Carlo; Lauterio, Andrea; Bongini, Marco; De Carlis, Luciano; Mazzaferro, Vincenzo

    2016-01-01

    AIM To develop a prognostic scoring system for overall survival (OS) of patients undergoing liver resection (LR) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). METHODS Consecutive patients who underwent curative LR for HCC between 2000 and 2013 were identified. The series was randomly divided into a training and a validation set. A multivariable Cox model for OS was fitted to the training set. The beta coefficients derived from the Cox model were used to define a prognostic scoring system for OS. The survival stratification was then tested, and the prognostic scoring system was compared with the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL)/American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) surgical criteria by means of Harrell’s C statistics. RESULTS A total of 917 patients were considered. Five variables independently correlated with post-LR survival: Model for End-stage Liver Disease score, hepatitis C virus infection, number of nodules, largest diameter and vascular invasion. Three risk classes were identified, and OS for the three risk classes was significantly different both in the training (P < 0.0001) and the validation set (P = 0.0002). Overall, 69.4% of patients were in the low-risk class, whereas only 37.8% were eligible to surgery according to EASL/AASLD. Survival of patients in the low-risk class was not significantly different compared with surgical indication for EASL/AASLD guidelines (77.2 mo vs 82.5 mo respectively, P = 0.22). Comparison of Harrell’s C statistics revealed no significant difference in predictive power between the two systems (-0.00999, P = 0.667). CONCLUSION This study established a new prognostic scoring system that may stratify HCC patients suitable for surgery, expanding surgical eligibility with respect to EASL/AASLD criteria with no harm on survival.

  1. Prognostic Scoring Index for Patients with Metastatic Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Park, Hyung Soon; Lee, Hye Sun; Park, Ji Soo; Park, Joon Seong; Lee, Dong Ki; Lee, Se-Joon; Yoon, Dong Sup; Lee, Min Goo; Jeung, Hei-Cheul

    2016-01-01

    Purpose This study focused on implementation of a prognostic scoring index based on clinico-laboratory parameters measured routinely on admission in metastatic pancreatic cancer patients. Materials and Methods Records from 403 patients of metastatic disease were analyzed retrospectively. Continuous variables were dichotomized according to the normal range or the best cut-off values statistically determined by Contal and O’Quigley method, and then analyzed in association with prognosis—overall survival (OS), using Cox’s proportional hazard model. Scores were calculated by summing the rounded chi-square scores for the factors that emerged in the multivariate analysis. Results Performance status, hemoglobin, leucocyte count, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, and carcinoembryonic antigen were independent factors for OS. When patients were divided into three risk groups according to these factors, median survival was 11.7, 6.2, and 1.3 months for the low, intermediate, and high-risk groups, respectively (p < 0.001). Palliative chemotherapy has a significant survival benefit for low and intermediate-risk patients (median OS; 12.5 months vs. 5.9 months, p < 0.001 and 8.0 months vs. 2.0 months, p < 0.001, respectively). Conclusion We advocate the use of a multivariable approach with continuous variables for prognostic modeling. Our index is helpful in accurate patient risk stratification and may aid in treatment selection. PMID:26875200

  2. A prognostic scoring system for arm exercise stress testing

    PubMed Central

    Xie, Yan; Xian, Hong; Chandiramani, Pooja; Bainter, Emily; Wan, Leping; Martin, Wade H

    2016-01-01

    Objective Arm exercise stress testing may be an equivalent or better predictor of mortality outcome than pharmacological stress imaging for the ≥50% for patients unable to perform leg exercise. Thus, our objective was to develop an arm exercise ECG stress test scoring system, analogous to the Duke Treadmill Score, for predicting outcome in these individuals. Methods In this retrospective observational cohort study, arm exercise ECG stress tests were performed in 443 consecutive veterans aged 64.1 (11.1) years. (mean (SD)) between 1997 and 2002. From multivariate Cox models, arm exercise scores were developed for prediction of 5-year and 12-year all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and 5-year cardiovascular mortality or myocardial infarction (MI). Results Arm exercise capacity in resting metabolic equivalents (METs), 1 min heart rate recovery (HRR) and ST segment depression ≥1 mm were the stress test variables independently associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality by step-wise Cox analysis (all p<0.01). A score based on the relation HRR (bpm)+7.3×METs−10.5×ST depression (0=no; 1=yes) prognosticated 5-year cardiovascular mortality with a C-statistic of 0.81 before and 0.88 after adjustment for significant demographic and clinical covariates. Arm exercise scores for the other outcome end points yielded C-statistic values of 0.77–0.79 before and 0.82–0.86 after adjustment for significant covariates versus 0.64–0.72 for best fit pharmacological myocardial perfusion imaging models in a cohort of 1730 veterans who were evaluated over the same time period. Conclusions Arm exercise scores, analogous to the Duke Treadmill Score, have good power for prediction of mortality or MI in patients who cannot perform leg exercise. PMID:26835142

  3. Prognostic score systems and community-acquired bacteraemic pneumococcal pneumonia.

    PubMed

    Spindler, C; Ortqvist, A

    2006-10-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of three score systems: the pneumonia severity index (PSI); CURB-65 (confusion; urea >7 mM; respiratory rate > or =30 breaths x min(-1); blood pressure <90 mmHg systolic or < or =60 mmHg diastolic; aged > or =65 yrs old); and modified American Thoracic Society rule for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) need and mortality due to bacteraemic pneumococcal pneumonia. All adult patients (n = 114) with invasive pneumococcal pneumonia at the Karolinska University Hospital, Sweden, 1999-2000, were included in the study. Severity scores were calculated and the independent prognostic importance of different variables was analysed by multiple regression analyses. PSI > or = IV, CURB-65 > or = 2, and the presence of one major or more than one minor risk factor in mATS all had a high sensitivity, but somewhat lower specificity for predicting death and ICU need. The death rate was 12% (13 out of 114). Severity score and treatment in departments other than the Dept of Infectious Diseases were the only factors independently correlated to death. Patients treated in other departments more often had severe underlying illnesses and were more severely ill on admission. However, a significant difference in death rates remained after adjustment for severity between the two groups. In conclusion, all score systems were useful for predicting the need for intensive care unit treatment and death due to bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia. The pneumonia severity index was the most sensitive, but CURB-65 was easier to use.

  4. Glasgow Coma Scale and Its Components on Admission: Are They Valuable Prognostic Tools in Acute Mixed Drug Poisoning?

    PubMed Central

    Eizadi Mood, N.; Sabzghabaee, A. M.; Yadegarfar, Gh.; Yaraghi, A.; Ramazani Chaleshtori, M.

    2011-01-01

    Introduction. The verbal, eye, and motor components of Glasgow coma scale (GCS) may be influenced by poisoned patients' behavior in an attempted suicide. So, the values of admission GCS and its components for outcomes prediction in mixed drugs poisoning were investigated. Materials and Methods. A followup study data was performed on patients with mixed drugs poisoning. Outcomes were recorded as without complications and with complications. Discrimination was evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). Results. There was a significant difference between the mean value of each component of GCS as well as the total GCS between patients with and without complication. Discrimination was best for GCS (AUC: 0.933 ± 0.020) and verbal (0.932 ± 0.021), followed by motor (0.911 ± 0.025), then eye (0.89 ± 0.028). Conclusions. Admission GCS and its components seem to be valuable in outcome prediction of patients with mixed drug poisoning. PMID:21559299

  5. Prognostic Value of TIMI Score versus GRACE Score in ST-segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

    PubMed Central

    Correia, Luis C. L.; Garcia, Guilherme; Kalil, Felipe; Ferreira, Felipe; Carvalhal, Manuela; Oliveira, Ruan; Silva, André; Vasconcelos, Isis; Henri, Caio; Noya-Rabelo, Márcia

    2014-01-01

    Background The TIMI Score for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) was created and validated specifically for this clinical scenario, while the GRACE score is generic to any type of acute coronary syndrome. Objective Between TIMI and GRACE scores, identify the one of better prognostic performance in patients with STEMI. Methods We included 152 individuals consecutively admitted for STEMI. The TIMI and GRACE scores were tested for their discriminatory ability (C-statistics) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow) in relation to hospital death. Results The TIMI score showed equal distribution of patients in the ranges of low, intermediate and high risk (39 %, 27 % and 34 %, respectively), as opposed to the GRACE Score that showed predominant distribution at low risk (80 %, 13 % and 7%, respectively). Case-fatality was 11%. The C-statistics of the TIMI score was 0.87 (95%CI = 0.76 to 0.98), similar to GRACE (0.87, 95%CI = 0.75 to 0.99) - p = 0.71. The TIMI score showed satisfactory calibration represented by χ2 = 1.4 (p = 0.92), well above the calibration of the GRACE score, which showed χ2 = 14 (p = 0.08). This calibration is reflected in the expected incidence ranges for low, intermediate and high risk, according to the TIMI score (0 %, 4.9 % and 25 %, respectively), differently to GRACE (2.4%, 25% and 73%), which featured middle range incidence inappropriately. Conclusion Although the scores show similar discriminatory capacity for hospital death, the TIMI score had better calibration than GRACE. These findings need to be validated populations of different risk profiles. PMID:25029471

  6. Short-term prognostic factors in lumbar disc surgery: the low back prognostic score is of predictive value.

    PubMed

    Woertgen, C; Gliese, M; Rothoerl, R D; Holzschuh, M; Schlaier, J; Ullrich, O W; Brawanski, A

    1998-01-01

    In order to determine prognostic factors of lumbar disc surgery, we examined 107 patients who were conventionally operated on in a prospective, consecutive study. We analysed general data, the case history, the neurological examination at admission and all data from imaging examinations and therapy. In addition, all patients received a questionnaire based on the Low Back Outcome Score [9, 10]. The patients were re-examined after 2-8 months (103 days mean). According to their ratings on a pain grading scale, the patients were divided into a group with favorable and another with unfavorable results. These groups were analysed in relation to the patients' initial condition. At follow up, 88% of the patients had either completely recovered or their complaints had been relieved. According to the Low Back Outcome Score (LBOS), 64.5% went well. Used to evaluate the initial condition of the patients on admission the LBOS was able to predict favorable outcome in 68% and unfavorable outcome in 50%. To improve the prognostic value, we combined significant questions of the LBOS with the pain grading scale and significant prognostic factors to form a new prognostic score (Low Back Prognostic Score). With this new score we were able to predict a favorable outcome in 84% of our patients, and an unfavorable outcome in 71%. The Low Back Prognostic score seems to provide a sensitive method for predicting a favorable or unfavorable outcome for patients scheduled to undergo lumbar disc surgery. PMID:9577926

  7. Analysis of blood trace elements and biochemical indexes levels in severe craniocerebral trauma adults with Glasgow Coma Scale and injury severity score.

    PubMed

    Xu, Guangtao; Hu, Bo; Chen, Guiqian; Yu, Xiaojun; Luo, Jianming; Lv, Junyao; Gu, Jiang

    2015-04-01

    We aimed to investigate the correlation between the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), the injury severity score (ISS) and serum levels of trace elements (TE) in severe trauma patients to analyze alteration of the levels of trace elements and serum biochemical indexes in the period of admission from 126 adult cases of severe brain trauma with traffic accidents. Multi-trace elements for patients in the trauma-TE groups were used. The results indicated that all patients presented an acute trace elements deficiency syndrome (ATEDs) after severe trauma, and the correlation between ISS and serum levels of Fe, Zn, and Mg was significant. Compared to the normal control group, levels of the trace elements in serum were significantly decreased after trauma, suggesting that enhancement of immunity to infection and multiple organ failure (MOF) via the monitoring and supplement of trace elements will be a good strategy to severe traumatic patients in clinics.

  8. A prognostic score in histological node negative breast cancer.

    PubMed Central

    Chevallier, B.; Mosseri, V.; Dauce, J. P.; Bastit, P.; Julien, J. P.; Asselain, B.

    1990-01-01

    Between October 1977 and December 1983, 379 consecutive patients have been treated for unilateral, non-metastatic breast cancer, either with conservative (n = 205) or radical surgery (n = 174), with axillary dissection in all the cases. None of them had histologically proved lymph node involvement. Oestrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) levels were measured on each tumour. Levels greater than 5 fmol mg-1 cytosolic protein were considered as positive for both ER and PR. At 5 years, overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) are respectively 88% and 78%. Unifactorial analysis using Kaplan and Meier estimates and the log rank test revealed that OS was significantly related to age (P less than 0.05), tumour size (P less than 0.001), histological grading (SBR) (P less than 0.01), ER (P less than 0.001) and PR (P less than 0.001). DFS was significantly related to the same factors. Menopausal status, number of breast tumour foci and previous familial history of breast cancer were not significant. Multifactorial analysis revealed that DFS was significantly related to age (bad prognosis (b.p.) less than or equal to 37 years old), tumour size and histological grading (b.p. SBR = 3), and that OS was significantly related to tumour size and PR (b.p. PR less than or equal to 5 fmol mg-1 protein). A prognostic score has been constructed for both DFS and OS. These scores divide our patients into three significantly different (P less than 0.0001) groups with good, intermediate and bad prognosis. PMID:2328212

  9. Better Glasgow outcome score, cerebral perfusion pressure and focal brain oxygenation in severely traumatized brain following direct regional brain hypothermia therapy: A prospective randomized study

    PubMed Central

    Idris, Zamzuri; Zenian, Mohd Sofan; Muzaimi, Mustapha; Hamid, Wan Zuraida Wan Abdul

    2014-01-01

    Background: Induced hypothermia for treatment of traumatic brain injury is controversial. Since many pathways involved in the pathophysiology of secondary brain injury are temperature dependent, regional brain hypothermia is thought capable to mitigate those processes. The objectives of this study are to assess the therapeutic effects and complications of regional brain cooling in severe head injury with Glasgow coma scale (GCS) 6-7. Materials and Methods: A prospective randomized controlled pilot study involving patients with severe traumatic brain injury with GCS 6 and 7 who required decompressive craniectomy. Patients were randomized into two groups: Cooling and no cooling. For the cooling group, analysis was made by dividing the group into mild and deep cooling. Brain was cooled by irrigating the brain continuously with cold Hartmann solution for 24-48 h. Main outcome assessments were a dichotomized Glasgow outcome score (GOS) at 6 months posttrauma. Results: A total of 32 patients were recruited. The cooling-treated patients did better than no cooling. There were 63.2% of patients in cooling group attained good GOS at 6 months compared to only 15.4% in noncooling group (P = 0.007). Interestingly, the analysis at 6 months post-trauma disclosed mild-cooling-treated patients did better than no cooling (70% vs. 15.4% attained good GOS, P = 0.013) and apparently, the deep-cooling-treated patients failed to be better than either no cooling (P = 0.074) or mild cooling group (P = 0.650). Conclusion: Data from this pilot study imply direct regional brain hypothermia appears safe, feasible and maybe beneficial in treating severely head-injured patients. PMID:25685201

  10. An international data set for CMML validates prognostic scoring systems and demonstrates a need for novel prognostication strategies.

    PubMed

    Padron, E; Garcia-Manero, G; Patnaik, M M; Itzykson, R; Lasho, T; Nazha, A; Rampal, R K; Sanchez, M E; Jabbour, E; Al Ali, N H; Thompson, Z; Colla, S; Fenaux, P; Kantarjian, H M; Killick, S; Sekeres, M A; List, A F; Onida, F; Komrokji, R S; Tefferi, A; Solary, E

    2015-01-01

    Since its reclassification as a distinct disease entity, clinical research efforts have attempted to establish baseline characteristics and prognostic scoring systems for chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML). Although existing data for baseline characteristics and CMML prognostication have been robustly developed and externally validated, these results have been limited by the small size of single-institution cohorts. We developed an international CMML data set that included 1832 cases across eight centers to establish the frequency of key clinical characteristics. Of note, we found that the majority of CMML patients were classified as World Health Organization CMML-1 and that a 7.5% bone marrow blast cut-point may discriminate prognosis with higher resolution in comparison with the existing 10%. We additionally interrogated existing CMML prognostic models and found that they are all valid and have comparable performance but are vulnerable to upstaging. Using random forest survival analysis for variable discovery, we demonstrated that the prognostic power of clinical variables alone is limited. Last, we confirmed the independent prognostic relevance of ASXL1 gene mutations and identified the novel adverse prognostic impact imparted by CBL mutations. Our data suggest that combinations of clinical and molecular information may be required to improve the accuracy of current CMML prognostication. PMID:26230957

  11. Prognostic significance of CT-emphysema score in patients with advanced squamous cell lung cancer

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Young Saing; Ahn, Hee Kyung; Cho, Eun Kyung; Jeong, Yu Mi; Kim, Jeong Ho

    2016-01-01

    Background Although emphysema is a known independent risk factor of lung cancer, no study has addressed the prognostic impact of computed tomography (CT)-emphysema score in advanced stage lung cancer. Methods For 84 consecutive patients with stage IIIB and IV squamous cell lung cancer that underwent palliative chemotherapy, severity of emphysema was semi-quantitatively scored using baseline chest CT images according to the Goddard scoring system (possible scores range, 0–24). The cutoff of high CT-emphysema score was determined using the maximum chi-squared test and the prognostic significance of the high CT-emphysema score was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards analysis. Results The median CT-emphysema score was 5 (range, 0–22). Patients with a high CT-emphysema score (≥4) tended to have poorer overall survival (OS) (median: 6.3 vs. 13.7 months) than those with a score of <4 (P=0.071). Multivariable analysis revealed that a higher CT-emphysema score was a significant independent prognostic factor for poor OS [hazard ratio (HR) =2.06; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.24–3.41; P=0.005), along with no response to first-line therapy (P=0.009) and no second-line therapy (P<0.001). Conclusions CT-emphysema score is significantly associated with poor prognosis in patients with advanced squamous cell lung cancer. PMID:27621848

  12. A prognostic scoring system for locoregional control in nasopharyngeal carcinoma following conformal radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Cheng, S.H.; Tsai, S.Y.; Horng, C.-F.; Yen, K.L.; Jian, James J.; Chan, Kwan-Yee; Lin, C.-Y.; Terng, S.-D.; Tsou, M.-H.; Chu, N.-M.; Chen, H.-H.; Hsieh, C.-I.; Tan, T.-D.; Chen, P.-L.; Chung, Y.L.; Huang, Andrew T. |

    2006-11-15

    Purpose: This study established a prognostic scoring system for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), which estimates the probability of locoregional (LR) control following definitive conformal radiotherapy. Methods and Materials: Patients with nondisseminated NPC at initial presentation (n = 630) were enrolled in this study. All patients had magnetic resonance imaging of the head and neck and were treated with conformal radiotherapy. Among them, 93% had concurrent chemotherapy, and 76% had postradiation chemotherapy. The extent of the primary tumor, age at diagnosis, primary tumor size, tumor and nodal classification, histology, and serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level before treatment were included in the analysis for building a prognostic scoring system. The end point for this study was LR control. Results: The prognostic score was defined as the number of adverse prognostic factors present at diagnosis. Four factors had similarly independent prognostic effects (hazard ratio, 2.0-2.6): age >40 years, histologic WHO type I-II, serum LDH level {>=}410 U/L, and involvement of two or more sites of the following anatomic structures, i.e., sphenoid floor, clivus marrow, clivus cortex, prevertebral muscles, and petrous bone. The score predicted the 5-year probability of LR control as follows: 0 (15% of the patients), 100%; 1 (42% of the patients), 93%; 2 (29% of the patients), 83%; 3 or higher (13% of the patients), 71%. Conclusion: This scoring system is useful in the decision-making for individual patients and the design of clinical trials to improve LR control for advanced-stage NPC.

  13. A simple prognostic score system predicts the prognosis of solitary large hepatocellular carcinoma following hepatectomy

    PubMed Central

    Shen, Jun-yi; Li, Chuan; Wen, Tian-fu; Yan, Lv-nan; Li, Bo; Wang, Wen-tao; Yang, Jia-yin; Xu, Ming-qing

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Solitary large hepatocellular carcinomas (SLHCC) form a heterogeneous group of patients with different survival probabilities. The aim of our study was to develop a simple prognostic index for identifying prognostic subgroups of SLHCC patients. A retrospective analysis of clinical data from 268 patients with operable SLHCC was conducted to investigate prognostic factors and to construct a score system based on risk factors. A Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to evaluate the variables associated with prognosis. Survival analyses were performed using Kaplan–Meier survival curves. Three variables remained in the final multivariate model: platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR), microvascular invasion (MVI), and tumor size with hazard ratios equal to 1.004 (95% confidence interval: 1.001–1.006), 1.092 (1.044–1.142), and 2.233 (1.125–2.233), respectively. A score of 1 was assigned to each risk factor. Patient scores were determined based on these risk factors; thus, the scores ranged between 0 and 3. Ultimately, three categories (0, 1–2, 3) were defined. Patients with scores of 3 had a 5-year survival rate of 25.4%, whereas patients with a score of 0 had a 5-year survival rate of 52.1%. The prognosis significantly worsened as the score increased. Similar results were found among cirrhotic and noncirrhotic patients. Our simple prognostic index successfully predicts SLHCC survival. PMID:27495033

  14. Prognostic value of lymphocyte/monocyte ratio in advanced Hodgkin lymphoma: correlation with International Prognostic Score and tumor associated macrophages.

    PubMed

    Jakovic, Ljubomir R; Mihaljevic, Biljana S; Andjelic, Bosko M; Bogdanovic, Andrija D; Perunicic Jovanovic, Maja D; Babic, Dragan D; Bumbasirevic, Vladimir Z

    2016-08-01

    We studied the prognostic significance of the absolute lymphocyte/monocyte count ratio (ALC/AMC), its contribution to the prognostic value of the International Prognostic Score (IPS), and evaluated if ALC/AMC could serve as a proxy for the frequency of CD68 + tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) in 101 patients with advanced Hodgkin lymphoma (HL). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve identified best cut-off values of 2.0 for ALC/AMC and 25% for CD68 + TAM. Patients with ALC/AMC < 2, IPS > 2 and > 25% CD68 + TAM had an inferior overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS). Spearman's test also uncovered a significant correlation between the ALC/AMC and TAM. Multivariate analysis identified ALC/AMC < 2, IPS > 2 and > 25% CD68 + TAM as poor prognostic factors of OS and EFS. After evaluating ALC/AMC and IPS, we stratified patients into three progressively-worse-outcome groups (low-risk: 0 risk factors; intermediate: 1 risk factor; high: 2 risk factors). Our study encourages the combination of ALC/AMC with IPS, for refining risk prediction in advanced HL patients.

  15. Evaluation of prognostic scoring systems for bone metastases using single-center data

    PubMed Central

    SHIMADA, HIROFUMI; SETOGUCHI, TAKAO; NAKAMURA, SHUNSUKE; YOKOUCHI, MASAHIRO; ISHIDOU, YASUHIRO; TOMINAGA, HIROYUKI; KAWAMURA, ICHIRO; NAGANO, SATOSHI; KOMIYA, SETSURO

    2015-01-01

    Recent progress in cancer treatment has improved patient survival, but has increased the number of patients with metastatic bone tumors. Data were collected from all bone metastasis patients at Kagoshima University, where almost all patients with metastatic bone tumors who reside in Kagoshima province are treated surgically. The scoring systems used in bone metastasis patients were then evaluated to identify those most suitable for our patients. Clinical data were collected from 145 patients with bone metastases. The patients were assigned prognostic scores based on four scoring systems, namely those described by the Ratasvuori, Mizumoto, Tokuhashi and Katagiri groups. Statistical examinations were performed to assess patient distribution regarding prognostic factors and the four data sets reported in the literature. The patient distributions for all prognostic factors were significantly different between the Scandinavian Sarcoma Group (SSG) and Kagoshima data. The distributions of patients for 3 of 5 and for 5 of 7 prognostic factors were statistically different between the Kagoshima data and the Katagiri and Tokuhashi data, respectively. Additionally, the distribution of patients in each scoring group was statistically different between the Kagoshima data and the Katagiri, Tokuhashi and Mizumoto data. The predictions of prognosis were significantly different between the results of each group and ours. The Tokuhashi scoring system detected the highest survival at 6 months (88.8%) in the Kagoshima data. Patients with a life expectancy of >6 months benefited from tumor excision and reconstruction. These findings suggest that the Tokuhashi scoring system is the most suitable for identifying patients who should be assessed for curative surgical intervention. SSG scoring, however, was suitable for identifying patients expected to survive for <6 months (91.3%). Prior to selecting a scoring system to predict prognosis, it is important to determine which scoring system is

  16. New prognostic factors and scoring system for patients with skeletal metastasis

    PubMed Central

    Katagiri, Hirohisa; Okada, Rieko; Takagi, Tatsuya; Takahashi, Mitsuru; Murata, Hideki; Harada, Hideyuki; Nishimura, Tetsuo; Asakura, Hirofumi; Ogawa, Hirofumi

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to update a previous scoring system for patients with skeletal metastases, that was proposed by Katagiri et al. in 2005, by introducing a new factor (laboratory data) and analyzing a new patient cohort. Between January 2005 and January 2008, we treated 808 patients with symptomatic skeletal metastases. They were prospectively registered regardless of their treatments, and the last follow-up evaluation was performed in 2012. There were 441 male and 367 female patients with a median age of 64 years. Of these patients, 749 were treated nonsurgically while the remaining 59 underwent surgery for skeletal metastasis. A multivariate analysis was conducted using the Cox proportional hazards model. We identified six significant prognostic factors for survival, namely, the primary lesion, visceral or cerebral metastases, abnormal laboratory data, poor performance status, previous chemotherapy, and multiple skeletal metastases. The first three factors had a larger impact than the remaining three. The prognostic score was calculated by adding together all the scores for individual factors. With a prognostic score of ≥7, the survival rate was 27% at 6 months, and only 6% at 1 year. In contrast, patients with a prognostic score of ≤3 had a survival rate of 91% at 1 year, and 78% at 2 years. Comparing the revised system with the previous one, there was a significantly lower number of wrongly predicted patients using the revised system. This revised scoring system was able to predict the survival rates of patients with skeletal metastases more accurately than the previous system and may be useful for selecting an optimal treatment. PMID:25044999

  17. Comparison of Ranson, Glasgow, MOSS, SIRS, BISAP, APACHE-II, CTSI Scores, IL-6, CRP, and Procalcitonin in Predicting Severity, Organ Failure, Pancreatic Necrosis, and Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis.

    PubMed

    Khanna, Ajay K; Meher, Susanta; Prakash, Shashi; Tiwary, Satyendra Kumar; Singh, Usha; Srivastava, Arvind; Dixit, V K

    2013-01-01

    Background. Multifactorial scorings, radiological scores, and biochemical markers may help in early prediction of severity, pancreatic necrosis, and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). Methods. BISAP, APACHE-II, MOSS, and SIRS scores were calculated using data within 24 hrs of admission, whereas Ranson and Glasgow scores after 48 hrs of admission; CTSI was calculated on day 4 whereas IL-6 and CRP values at end of study. Predictive accuracy of scoring systems, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of various markers in prediction of severe acute pancreatitis, organ failure, pancreatic necrosis, admission to intensive care units and mortality were calculated. Results. Of 72 patients, 31 patients had organ failure and local complication classified as severe acute pancreatitis, 17 had pancreatic necrosis, and 9 died (12.5%). Area under curves for Ranson, Glasgow, MOSS, SIRS, APACHE-II, BISAP, CTSI, IL-6, and CRP in predicting SAP were 0.85, 0.75, 0.73, 0.73, 0.88, 0.80, 0.90, and 0.91, respectively, for pancreatic necrosis 0.70, 0.64, 0.61, 0.61, 0.68, 0.61, 0.75, 0.86, and 0.90, respectively, and for mortality 0.84, 0.83, 0.77, 0.76, 0.86, 0.83, 0.57, 0.80, and 0.75, respectively. Conclusion. CRP and IL-6 have shown a promising result in early detection of severity and pancreatic necrosis whereas APACHE-II and Ranson score in predicting AP related mortality in this study.

  18. Prognostic models and risk scores: can we accurately predict postoperative nausea and vomiting in children after craniotomy?

    PubMed

    Neufeld, Susan M; Newburn-Cook, Christine V; Drummond, Jane E

    2008-10-01

    Postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV) is a problem for many children after craniotomy. Prognostic models and risk scores help identify who is at risk for an adverse event such as PONV to help guide clinical care. The purpose of this article is to assess whether an existing prognostic model or risk score can predict PONV in children after craniotomy. The concepts of transportability, calibration, and discrimination are presented to identify what is required to have a valid tool for clinical use. Although previous work may inform clinical practice and guide future research, existing prognostic models and risk scores do not appear to be options for predicting PONV in children undergoing craniotomy. However, until risk factors are further delineated, followed by the development and validation of prognostic models and risk scores that include children after craniotomy, clinical judgment in the context of current research may serve as a guide for clinical care in this population. PMID:18939320

  19. Prognostic variables and scores identifying the last year of life in COPD: a systematic review protocol

    PubMed Central

    Ali, Ifrah; Stone, Patrick; Smeeth, Liam

    2016-01-01

    Introduction People living with advanced chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) suffer from significant morbidity, reduced quality of life and high mortality, and are likely to benefit from many aspects of a palliative care approach. Prognostic estimates are a meaningful part of decision-making and better evidence for such estimates would facilitate advance care planning. We aim to provide quality evidence on known prognostic variables and scores which predict a prognosis in COPD of <12 months for use in the community. Methods and analysis We will conduct a systematic review of randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials, prospective and retrospective longitudinal cohort and case–control studies on prognostic variables, multivariate scores or models for COPD. The search will cover the period up to April 2016. Study selection will follow the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, with data extraction using fields from the Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS) checklist for multivariate models, and study quality will be assessed using a modified version of the Quality In Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool. Ethics and dissemination The results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and national and international conference presentations. Systematic review registration number CRD42016033866. PMID:27633634

  20. Glasgow and the heavens

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roy, Archie E.

    The history of teaching and research in astronomy at Glasgow and its oldest university is described, particularly the massive changes brought about in the past quarter century by theoretical and technological advances in the subject itself. The Macfarlane, Dowanhill, and Garscube observatories are discussed, and biographies of Professors Ludwig Becker, William Smart, and Peter Sweet are provided as they relate to the history of the University of Glasgow, Scotland.

  1. Comparison of outcome predictions by the Glasgow coma scale and the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score in the neurological and neurosurgical patients in the Intensive Care Unit.

    PubMed

    Khanal, Kishor; Bhandari, Sanjeeb Sudarshan; Shrestha, Ninadini; Acharya, Subhash Prasad; Marhatta, Moda Nath

    2016-08-01

    Assessment of level of consciousness is very important in predicting patient's outcome from neurological illness. Glasgow coma scale (GCS) is the most commonly used scale, and Full Outline of UnResponsiveness (FOUR) score is also recently validated as an alternative to GCS in the evaluation of the level of consciousness. We carried out a prospective study in 97 patients aged above 16 years. We measured GCS and FOUR score within 24 h of Intensive Care Unit admission. The mean GCS and the FOUR scores were lower among nonsurvivors than among the survivors and were statistically significant (P < 0.001). Discrimination for GCS and FOUR score was fair with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.79 and 0.82, respectively. The cutoff point with best Youden index for GCS and FOUR score was 6.5 each. Below the cutoff point, mortality was higher in both models (P < 0.001). The Hosmer-Lemeshow Chi-square coefficient test showed better calibration with FOUR score than GCS. A positive correlation was seen between the models with Spearman's correlation coefficient of 0.91 (P < 0.001). PMID:27630460

  2. Comparison of outcome predictions by the Glasgow coma scale and the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score in the neurological and neurosurgical patients in the Intensive Care Unit

    PubMed Central

    Khanal, Kishor; Bhandari, Sanjeeb Sudarshan; Shrestha, Ninadini; Acharya, Subhash Prasad; Marhatta, Moda Nath

    2016-01-01

    Assessment of level of consciousness is very important in predicting patient's outcome from neurological illness. Glasgow coma scale (GCS) is the most commonly used scale, and Full Outline of UnResponsiveness (FOUR) score is also recently validated as an alternative to GCS in the evaluation of the level of consciousness. We carried out a prospective study in 97 patients aged above 16 years. We measured GCS and FOUR score within 24 h of Intensive Care Unit admission. The mean GCS and the FOUR scores were lower among nonsurvivors than among the survivors and were statistically significant (P < 0.001). Discrimination for GCS and FOUR score was fair with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.79 and 0.82, respectively. The cutoff point with best Youden index for GCS and FOUR score was 6.5 each. Below the cutoff point, mortality was higher in both models (P < 0.001). The Hosmer-Lemeshow Chi-square coefficient test showed better calibration with FOUR score than GCS. A positive correlation was seen between the models with Spearman's correlation coefficient of 0.91 (P < 0.001). PMID:27630460

  3. Comparison of outcome predictions by the Glasgow coma scale and the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score in the neurological and neurosurgical patients in the Intensive Care Unit

    PubMed Central

    Khanal, Kishor; Bhandari, Sanjeeb Sudarshan; Shrestha, Ninadini; Acharya, Subhash Prasad; Marhatta, Moda Nath

    2016-01-01

    Assessment of level of consciousness is very important in predicting patient's outcome from neurological illness. Glasgow coma scale (GCS) is the most commonly used scale, and Full Outline of UnResponsiveness (FOUR) score is also recently validated as an alternative to GCS in the evaluation of the level of consciousness. We carried out a prospective study in 97 patients aged above 16 years. We measured GCS and FOUR score within 24 h of Intensive Care Unit admission. The mean GCS and the FOUR scores were lower among nonsurvivors than among the survivors and were statistically significant (P < 0.001). Discrimination for GCS and FOUR score was fair with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.79 and 0.82, respectively. The cutoff point with best Youden index for GCS and FOUR score was 6.5 each. Below the cutoff point, mortality was higher in both models (P < 0.001). The Hosmer-Lemeshow Chi-square coefficient test showed better calibration with FOUR score than GCS. A positive correlation was seen between the models with Spearman's correlation coefficient of 0.91 (P < 0.001).

  4. Male Breast Cancer Prognostic Factors Versus Female Counterparts with Propensity Scores and Matched-Pair Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Stitt, Larry; Vujovic, Olga; Joseph, Kurian; Assouline, Avi; Younus, Jawaid; Perera, Francisco; Tai, Patricia

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To assess the effect of prognostic factors and their impact on survival in male and female breast cancer. Methods: Medical records for men and women diagnosed with breast cancer referred to the cancer center for treatment were reviewed. Patients with distant metastatic diseases were excluded. Data on prognostic factors including age, nodal status, resection margin, use of hormonal therapy, chemotherapy with and without hormone and radiation therapy (RT), survival, and recurrence were analyzed. Survival estimates were obtained using Kaplan-Meier methodology. The Cox regression interaction was used to compare male and female differences in prognostic factors. Male breast cancer (MBC) and female breast cancer (FBC) were matched according to propensity scores and survival compared using Cox regression. Results: From 1963-2006, there were 75 MBC and 1,313 FBC totaling 1,388 breast cancers. The median age of the cohort was 53 (range: 23-90) years. Median follow-up was 90 (range: 0.4-339) months. Prognostic factors of patients were balanced among the groups after adjusting for propensity scores. A Cox model adjusting for propensity scores showed that overall survival (OS) (HR= 2.52 (1.65, 3.86), P<0.001) and distant disease recurrence-free survival (DDRFS) (HR= 2.39 (0.75, 3.04), P=0.003) were significantly different for MBC and FBC. Analyses that stratified by propensity score quintiles had similar findings: OS HR=2.41 (1.67, 3.47), P<0.001); DDRFS HR=2.89 (1.81, 4.60), P<0.001). When MBC and FBC were matched (1:3) by propensity scores, differences between MBC and FBC were again observed in OS (HR=1.94, 95%CI:1.18-3.19, P=0.009) and DDRFS (HR=2.79, 95%CI:1.36-5.75, P=0.005) with MBC at a higher risk of death and  disease recurrence compared to FBC . Conclusion: This large series showed that MBC and FBC survivals are not similar, with MBC having a worse outcome. The finding of this study needs confirmation from a complete prospective database. PMID

  5. A new immunohistochemistry prognostic score (IPS) for recurrence and survival in resected pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PanNET)

    PubMed Central

    Viúdez, Antonio; Carvalho, Filipe L.F.; Maleki, Zahra; Zahurak, Marianna; Laheru, Daniel; Stark, Alejandro; Azad, Nilofer Z.; Wolfgang, Christopher L.; Baylin, Stephen; Herman, James G.; De Jesus-Acosta, Ana

    2016-01-01

    Pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor (PanNET) is a neoplastic entity in which few prognostic factors are well-known. Here, we aimed to evaluate the prognostic significance of N-myc downstream-regulated gen-1 (NDRG-1), O6-methylguanine DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) and Pleckstrin homology-like domain family A member 3 (PHLDA-3) by immunohistochemistry (IHC) and methylation analysis in 92 patients with resected PanNET and follow-up longer than 24 months. In multivariate analyses, ki-67 and our immunohistochemistry prognostic score (IPS-based on MGMT, NDRG-1 and PHLDA-3 IHC expression) were independent prognostic factors for disease-free-survival (DFS), while age and IPS were independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS). Our IPS could be a useful prognostic biomarker for recurrence and survival in patients following resection for PanNET. PMID:26894863

  6. Update on prognostic factors in acromegaly: Is a risk score possible?

    PubMed

    Fernandez-Rodriguez, E; Casanueva, F F; Bernabeu, I

    2015-06-01

    Certain clinical conditions and markers have recently been demonstrated to modify the natural history of acromegaly in affected patients. Thus, some clinical, histological, radiological and molecular factors are associated with more aggressive pituitary tumors that have higher biochemical activity, higher tumor volumes and decreased tumoral and biochemical responses to current therapies. However, these factors do not seem to have an equal influence on the prognosis of patients with acromegaly. We present a review of the factors that influence the clinical course of patients with acromegaly and propose a risk value for each factor that will allow prognostic scoring for affected patients by considering a combination of these factors.

  7. Validation of WHO classification-based Prognostic Scoring System (WPSS) for myelodysplastic syndromes and comparison with the revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R). A study of the International Working Group for Prognosis in Myelodysplasia (IWG-PM).

    PubMed

    Della Porta, M G; Tuechler, H; Malcovati, L; Schanz, J; Sanz, G; Garcia-Manero, G; Solé, F; Bennett, J M; Bowen, D; Fenaux, P; Dreyfus, F; Kantarjian, H; Kuendgen, A; Levis, A; Cermak, J; Fonatsch, C; Le Beau, M M; Slovak, M L; Krieger, O; Luebbert, M; Maciejewski, J; Magalhaes, S M M; Miyazaki, Y; Pfeilstöcker, M; Sekeres, M A; Sperr, W R; Stauder, R; Tauro, S; Valent, P; Vallespi, T; van de Loosdrecht, A A; Germing, U; Haase, D; Greenberg, P L; Cazzola, M

    2015-07-01

    A risk-adapted treatment strategy is mandatory for myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). We refined the World Health Organization (WHO)-classification-based Prognostic Scoring System (WPSS) by determining the impact of the newer clinical and cytogenetic features, and we compared its prognostic power to that of the revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R). A population of 5326 untreated MDS was considered. We analyzed single WPSS parameters and confirmed that the WHO classification and severe anemia provide important prognostic information in MDS. A strong correlation was found between the WPSS including the new cytogenetic risk stratification and WPSS adopting original criteria. We then compared WPSS with the IPSS-R prognostic system. A highly significant correlation was found between the WPSS and IPSS-R risk classifications. Discrepancies did occur among lower-risk patients in whom the number of dysplastic hematopoietic lineages as assessed by morphology did not reflect the severity of peripheral blood cytopenias and/or increased marrow blast count. Moreover, severe anemia has higher prognostic weight in the WPSS versus IPSS-R model. Overall, both systems well represent the prognostic risk of MDS patients defined by WHO morphologic criteria. This study provides relevant in formation for the implementation of risk-adapted strategies in MDS. PMID:25721895

  8. Usefulness of staging systems and prognostic scores for hepatocellular carcinoma treatments

    PubMed Central

    Adhoute, Xavier; Penaranda, Guillaume; Raoul, Jean Luc; Le Treut, Patrice; Bollon, Emilie; Hardwigsen, Jean; Castellani, Paul; Perrier, Hervé; Bourlière, Marc

    2016-01-01

    Therapeutic management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is quite complex owing to the underlying cirrhosis and portal vein hypertension. Different scores or classification systems based on liver function and tumoral stages have been published in the recent years. If none of them is currently “universally” recognized, the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system has become the reference classification system in Western countries. Based on a robust treatment algorithm associated with stage stratification, it relies on a high level of evidence. However, BCLC stage B and C HCC include a broad spectrum of tumors but are only matched with a single therapeutic option. Some experts have thus suggested to extend the indications for surgery or for transarterial chemoembolization. In clinical practice, many patients are already treated beyond the scope of recommendations. Additional alternative prognostic scores that could be applied to any therapeutic modality have been recently proposed. They could represent complementary tools to the BCLC staging system and improve the stratification of HCC patients enrolled in clinical trials, as illustrated by the NIACE score. Prospective studies are needed to compare these scores and refine their role in the decision making process. PMID:27330679

  9. Usefulness of staging systems and prognostic scores for hepatocellular carcinoma treatments.

    PubMed

    Adhoute, Xavier; Penaranda, Guillaume; Raoul, Jean Luc; Le Treut, Patrice; Bollon, Emilie; Hardwigsen, Jean; Castellani, Paul; Perrier, Hervé; Bourlière, Marc

    2016-06-18

    Therapeutic management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is quite complex owing to the underlying cirrhosis and portal vein hypertension. Different scores or classification systems based on liver function and tumoral stages have been published in the recent years. If none of them is currently "universally" recognized, the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system has become the reference classification system in Western countries. Based on a robust treatment algorithm associated with stage stratification, it relies on a high level of evidence. However, BCLC stage B and C HCC include a broad spectrum of tumors but are only matched with a single therapeutic option. Some experts have thus suggested to extend the indications for surgery or for transarterial chemoembolization. In clinical practice, many patients are already treated beyond the scope of recommendations. Additional alternative prognostic scores that could be applied to any therapeutic modality have been recently proposed. They could represent complementary tools to the BCLC staging system and improve the stratification of HCC patients enrolled in clinical trials, as illustrated by the NIACE score. Prospective studies are needed to compare these scores and refine their role in the decision making process. PMID:27330679

  10. Prognostic scoring systems for mortality in intensive care units--the APACHE model.

    PubMed

    Niewiński, Grzegorz; Starczewska, Małgorzata; Kański, Andrzej

    2014-01-01

    The APACHE (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) scoring system is time consuming. The mean time for introducing a patient's data to APACHE IV is 37.3 min. Nevertheless, statisticians have known for years that the higher the number of variables the mathematical model describes, the more accurate the model. Because of the necessity of gathering data over a 24-hour period and of determining one cause for ICU admission, the system is troublesome and prone to mistakes. The evolution of the APACHE scoring system is an example of unfulfilled hopes for accurately estimating the risk of death for patients admitted to the ICU; satisfactory prognostic effects resulting from the use of APACHE II and III have been recently studied in patients undergoing liver transplantations. Because no increase in the predictive properties of successive versions has been observed, the search for other solutions continues. The APACHE IV scoring system is helpful; however, its use without prepared spreadsheets is almost impractical. Therefore, although many years have passed since its original publication, APACHE II or its extension APACHE III is currently used in clinical practice.

  11. Tumor budding score based on 10 high-power fields is a promising basis for a standardized prognostic scoring system in stage II colorectal cancer.

    PubMed

    Horcic, Milo; Koelzer, Viktor H; Karamitopoulou, Eva; Terracciano, Luigi; Puppa, Giacomo; Zlobec, Inti; Lugli, Alessandro

    2013-05-01

    Tumor budding is recognized by the World Health Organization as an additional prognostic factor in colorectal cancer but remains unreported in diagnostic work due to the absence of a standardized scoring method. This study aims to assess the most prognostic and reproducible scoring systems for tumor budding in colorectal cancer. Tumor budding on pancytokeratin-stained whole tissue sections from 105 well-characterized stage II patients was scored by 3 observers using 7 methods: Hase, Nakamura, Ueno, Wang (conventional and rapid method), densest high-power field, and 10 densest high-power fields. The predictive value for clinicopathologic features, the prognostic significance, and interobserver variability of each scoring method was analyzed. Pancytokeratin staining allowed accurate evaluation of tumor buds. Interobserver agreement for 3 observers was excellent for densest high-power field (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.83) and 10 densest high-power fields (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.91). Agreement was moderate to substantial for the conventional Wang method (κ = 0.46-0.62) and moderate for the rapid method (κ = 0.46-0.58). For Nakamura, moderate agreement (κ = 0.41-0.52) was reached, whereas concordance was fair to moderate for Ueno (κ = 0.39-0.56) and Hase (κ = 0.29-0.51). The Hase, Ueno, densest high-power field, and 10 densest high-power field methods identified a significant association of tumor budding with tumor border configuration. In multivariate analysis, only tumor budding as evaluated in densest high-power field and 10 densest high-power fields had significant prognostic effects on patient survival (P < .01), with high prognostic accuracy over the full 10-year follow-up. Scoring tumor buds in 10 densest high-power fields is a promising method to identify stage II patients at high risk for recurrence in daily diagnostics; it is highly reproducible, accounts for heterogeneity, and has a strong predictive value for adverse outcome

  12. Prognostic value of baseline seric Syndecan-1 in initially unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer patients: a simple biological score.

    PubMed

    Jary, Marine; Lecomte, Thierry; Bouché, Olivier; Kim, Stefano; Dobi, Erion; Queiroz, Lise; Ghiringhelli, Francois; Etienne, Hélène; Léger, Julie; Godet, Yann; Balland, Jérémy; Lakkis, Zaher; Adotevi, Olivier; Bonnetain, Franck; Borg, Christophe; Vernerey, Dewi

    2016-11-15

    In first-line metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), baseline prognostic factors allowing death risk and treatment strategy stratification are lacking. Syndecan-1 (CD138) soluble form was never described as a prognostic biomarker in mCRC. We investigated its additional prognostic value for overall survival (OS). mCRC patients with unresectable disease at diagnosis were treated with bevacizumab-based chemotherapy in two independent prospective clinical trials (development set: n = 126, validation set: n = 51, study NCT00489697 and study NCT00544011, respectively). Serums were collected at baseline for CD138 measurement. OS determinants were assessed and, based on the final multivariate model, a prognostic score was proposed. Two independent OS prognostic factors were identified: Lactate Dehydrogenase (LDH) high level (p = 0.0066) and log-CD138 high level (p = 0.0190). The determination of CD138 binary information (cutoff: 75 ng/mL) allowed the assessment of a biological prognostic score with CD138 and LDH values, identifying three risk groups for death (median OS= 38.9, 30.1 and 19.8 months for the low, intermediate and high risk groups, respectively; p < 0.0001). This score had a good discrimination ability (C-index = 0.63). These results were externally confirmed in the validation set. Our study provides robust evidence in favor of the additional baseline soluble CD138 prognostic value for OS, in mCRC patients. A simple biological scoring system is proposed including LDH and CD138 binary status values.

  13. Overview of different scoring systems in Fournier’s Gangrene and assessment of prognostic factors

    PubMed Central

    Doluoğlu, Ömer Gökhan; Karagöz, Mehmet Ali; Kılınç, Muhammet Fatih; Karakan, Tolga; Yücetürk, Cem Nedim; Sarıcı, Haşmet; Özgür, Berat Cem; Eroğlu, Muzaffer

    2016-01-01

    Objective In this study we aimed to evaluate prognostic factors for the survival of patients with Fournier’s gangrene (FG), and overview different validated scoring systems for outcome prediction. Material and methods We retrospectively analyzed the data of 39 patients treated for FG in our clinic. Data were collected on medical history, symptoms, physical examination findings, vital signs, laboratory parameters at admission and at the end of treatment, timing and extent of surgical debridement, and the antibiotic treatment used. The Fournier’s Gangrene Severity Index (FGSI) and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were used to predict outcome. The data were analyzed in relation with the survival of the patients. Mann-Whitney U test, chi -square test, Wilcoxon signed rank test, and Cox regression analysis were used for the statistical analysis. Results Of 39 patients analyzed, 8 (20.5%) died and 31 (79.5%) survived. The median FGSI score on admission was 2 (0–9) for the survivors and 6 (2–14) for the non-survivors (p=0.004). The median CCI scores of the survivors and non-survivors were 2 (0–10) and 6.5 (5–11), respectively (p=0.001). Except for urea, albumin and hematocrit levels, no significant differences were found between survivors and non-survivors for other laboratory parameters on admission. Lower albumin levels and advanced age were found to be associated with mortality. Conclusion High blood urea, low albumin, and low hematocrit levels were associated with poor prognosis. High CCI and FGSI scores could be associated with a poor prognosis in patients with FG.

  14. Overview of different scoring systems in Fournier’s Gangrene and assessment of prognostic factors

    PubMed Central

    Doluoğlu, Ömer Gökhan; Karagöz, Mehmet Ali; Kılınç, Muhammet Fatih; Karakan, Tolga; Yücetürk, Cem Nedim; Sarıcı, Haşmet; Özgür, Berat Cem; Eroğlu, Muzaffer

    2016-01-01

    Objective In this study we aimed to evaluate prognostic factors for the survival of patients with Fournier’s gangrene (FG), and overview different validated scoring systems for outcome prediction. Material and methods We retrospectively analyzed the data of 39 patients treated for FG in our clinic. Data were collected on medical history, symptoms, physical examination findings, vital signs, laboratory parameters at admission and at the end of treatment, timing and extent of surgical debridement, and the antibiotic treatment used. The Fournier’s Gangrene Severity Index (FGSI) and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were used to predict outcome. The data were analyzed in relation with the survival of the patients. Mann-Whitney U test, chi -square test, Wilcoxon signed rank test, and Cox regression analysis were used for the statistical analysis. Results Of 39 patients analyzed, 8 (20.5%) died and 31 (79.5%) survived. The median FGSI score on admission was 2 (0–9) for the survivors and 6 (2–14) for the non-survivors (p=0.004). The median CCI scores of the survivors and non-survivors were 2 (0–10) and 6.5 (5–11), respectively (p=0.001). Except for urea, albumin and hematocrit levels, no significant differences were found between survivors and non-survivors for other laboratory parameters on admission. Lower albumin levels and advanced age were found to be associated with mortality. Conclusion High blood urea, low albumin, and low hematocrit levels were associated with poor prognosis. High CCI and FGSI scores could be associated with a poor prognosis in patients with FG. PMID:27635295

  15. Multiple Brain Abscesses due to Streptococcus anginosus: Prediction of Mortality by an Imaging Severity Index Score.

    PubMed

    Kragha, K O

    2016-01-01

    An elderly patient with altered mental status, brain abscesses, ventriculitis, and empyemas died of septic shock and brain abscesses secondary to Streptococcus anginosus despite aggressive treatment. An imaging severity index score with a better prognostic value than the Glasgow coma scale predicted mortality in this patient. PMID:27034878

  16. Multiple Brain Abscesses due to Streptococcus anginosus: Prediction of Mortality by an Imaging Severity Index Score

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    An elderly patient with altered mental status, brain abscesses, ventriculitis, and empyemas died of septic shock and brain abscesses secondary to Streptococcus anginosus despite aggressive treatment. An imaging severity index score with a better prognostic value than the Glasgow coma scale predicted mortality in this patient. PMID:27034878

  17. Prognostic sub-classification of intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicenter cohort study with propensity score analysis.

    PubMed

    Ramaswami, Ramya; Pinato, David J; Kubota, Keiichi; Ishizuka, Mitsuru; Arizumi, Tadaaki; Kudo, Masatoshi; Jang, Jeong Won; Kim, Young Woon; Pirisi, Mario; Allara, Elias; Sharma, Rohini

    2016-10-01

    There is significant heterogeneity in the clinicopathological characteristics of intermediate hepatocellular carcinoma (IHCC). This also translates to treatment as transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is used as first-line therapy for patients with IHCC; however, in Asia liver resection (LR) is preferred. Prognostic tools are required to help guide clinicians in deciding treatment options. This study evaluates the prognostic impact of the Intermediate Stage Score (ISS) on overall survival (OS) in a large, multicenter cohort study of patients with IHCC treated with TACE or surgery LR. Consecutive patients from centers in Japan, Korea, Italy and the United Kingdom who underwent TACE or LR between 2001 and 2015 were enrolled. Propensity score (PS) adjustment was used to remove residual confounding and applied to LR (n = 162) and TACE (n = 449) to determine the prognostic significance of ISS. Among 611 patients, 75 % were men and 25 % women, with a mean age of 70 years. ISS is a valid prognostic tool in the BCLC-B population with a median OS ISS 1-51, 2-38.3, 3-24.3, 4-15.6, 5-16 months (p < 0.0001). ISS was analyzed within each treatment modality, and this was a valid prognostic score among those treated with TACE and LR (p < 0.001 vs. p = 0.008). In the PS-adjusted model, ISS retained its prognostic utility in TACE and LR groups (p < 0.001 vs. p = 0.007). ISS optimizes prognostic prediction in IHCC, reducing clinical heterogeneity, and is a useful tool for patients treated for TACE or LR. PMID:27601241

  18. A Novel and Validated Inflammation-Based Score (IBS) Predicts Survival in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Following Curative Surgical Resection

    PubMed Central

    Fu, Yi-Peng; Ni, Xiao-Chun; Yi, Yong; Cai, Xiao-Yan; He, Hong-Wei; Wang, Jia-Xing; Lu, Zhu-Feng; Han, Xu; Cao, Ya; Zhou, Jian; Fan, Jia; Qiu, Shuang-Jian

    2016-01-01

    Abstract As chronic inflammation is involved in the pathogenesis and progression of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), we investigated the prognostic accuracy of a cluster of inflammatory scores, including the Glasgow Prognostic Score, modified Glasgow Prognostic Score, platelet to lymphocyte ratio, Prognostic Nutritional Index, Prognostic Index, and a novel Inflammation-Based Score (IBS) integrated preoperative and postoperative neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio in 2 independent cohorts. Further, we aimed to formulate an effective prognostic nomogram for HCC after hepatectomy. Prognostic value of inflammatory scores and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage were studied in a training cohort of 772 patients with HCC underwent hepatectomy. Independent predictors of survival identified in multivariate analysis were validated in an independent set of 349 patients with an overall similar clinical feature. In both training and validation cohorts, IBS, microscopic vascular invasion, and BCLC stage emerged as independent factors of overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). The predictive capacity of the IBS in both OS and RFS appeared superior to that of the other inflammatory scores in terms of C-index. Additionally, the formulated nomogram comprised IBS resulted in more accurate prognostic prediction compared with BCLC stage alone. IBS is a novel and validated prognostic indicator of HCC after curative resection, and a robust HCC nomogram including IBS was developed to predict survival for patients after hepatectomy. PMID:26886627

  19. Validation of a flow cytometric scoring system as a prognostic indicator for posttransplantation outcome in patients with myelodysplastic syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Wells, Denise A.; Loken, Michael R.; Myerson, David; Leisenring, Wendy M.; Deeg, H. Joachim

    2008-01-01

    A total of 152 patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) receiving a first stem cell transplant had marrow cells prospectively analyzed to calculate the flow cytometric scoring system (FCSS) score. The FCSS scores were retrospectively compared with patient outcomes in both univariate and multivariate models. The cumulative incidence of posttransplantation relapse at 3 years was 15%, 10%, and 36% for patients with mild, moderate, and severe FCSS scores, respectively, with the hazard for relapse of 2.8 (P = .02) for severe scores in comparison to patients with mild or normal FCSS scores. In multivariate analyses, the FCSS score was associated with relapse even after accounting for International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) score or for marrow myeloblast percentage. Among patients with intermediate-1 risk by IPSS, severe FCSS scores were associated with an increased hazard of relapse (3.8; P = .02) compared with patients with normal/mild/moderate FCSS scores. Among patients with less than 5% marrow myeloblasts, myeloblast dyspoiesis was associated with an increased hazard of relapse (3.7; P = .02). This analysis confirmed that FCSS scores are predictive of posttransplantation outcomes in patients with MDS even after adjusting for risk factors such as marrow myeloblast percentage and IPSS score. PMID:18606877

  20. Prognostic Utility of Cell Cycle Progression Score in Men With Prostate Cancer After Primary External Beam Radiation Therapy

    SciTech Connect

    Freedland, Stephen J.; Gerber, Leah; Reid, Julia; Welbourn, William; Tikishvili, Eliso; Park, Jimmy; Younus, Adib; Gutin, Alexander; Sangale, Zaina; Lanchbury, Jerry S.; Salama, Joseph K.; Stone, Steven

    2013-08-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the prognostic utility of the cell cycle progression (CCP) score, a RNA signature based on the average expression level of 31 CCP genes, for predicting biochemical recurrence (BCR) in men with prostate cancer treated with external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) as their primary curative therapy. Methods and Materials: The CCP score was derived retrospectively from diagnostic biopsy specimens of men diagnosed with prostate cancer from 1991 to 2006 (n=141). All patients were treated with definitive EBRT; approximately half of the cohort was African American. Outcome was time from EBRT to BCR using the Phoenix definition. Median follow-up for patients without BCR was 4.8 years. Association with outcome was evaluated by Cox proportional hazards survival analysis and likelihood ratio tests. Results: Of 141 patients, 19 (13%) had BCR. The median CCP score for patient samples was 0.12. In univariable analysis, CCP score significantly predicted BCR (P=.0017). The hazard ratio for BCR was 2.55 for 1-unit increase in CCP score (equivalent to a doubling of gene expression). In a multivariable analysis that included Gleason score, prostate-specific antigen, percent positive cores, and androgen deprivation therapy, the hazard ratio for CCP changed only marginally and remained significant (P=.034), indicating that CCP provides prognostic information that is not provided by standard clinical parameters. With 10-year censoring, the CCP score was associated with prostate cancer-specific mortality (P=.013). There was no evidence for interaction between CCP and any clinical variable, including ethnicity. Conclusions: Among men treated with EBRT, the CCP score significantly predicted outcome and provided greater prognostic information than was available with clinical parameters. If validated in a larger cohort, CCP score could identify high-risk men undergoing EBRT who may need more aggressive therapy.

  1. A new Leukemia Prognostic Scoring System for refractory/relapsed adult acute myelogeneous leukaemia patients: a GOELAMS study.

    PubMed

    Chevallier, P; Labopin, M; Turlure, P; Prebet, T; Pigneux, A; Hunault, M; Filanovsky, K; Cornillet-Lefebvre, P; Luquet, I; Lode, L; Richebourg, S; Blanchet, O; Gachard, N; Vey, N; Ifrah, N; Milpied, N; Harousseau, J-L; Bene, M-C; Mohty, M; Delaunay, J

    2011-06-01

    A simplified prognostic score is presented based on the multivariate analysis of 138 refractory/relapsed acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) patients (median age 55 years, range: 19-70) receiving a combination of intensive chemotherapy+Gemtuzumab as salvage regimen. Overall, 2-year event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS) were 29±4% and 36±4%, respectively. Disease status (relapse <12 months, including refractory patients), FLT3-ITD-positive status and high-risk cytogenetics were the three strongest independent adverse prognostic factors for OS and EFS in this series. We then defined three subgroups with striking different outcomes at 2 years: no adverse factor (favourable, N=36): OS 58%, EFS 45%; one adverse factor (intermediate, N=54): OS 37%, EFS 31%; two or three adverse factors (poor, N=43): OS 12%, EFS 12% (P<10(-4), P=0.001). This new simplified Leukemia Prognostic Scoring System was then validated on an independent cohort of 111 refractory/relapsed AML patients. This new simplified prognostic score, using three clinical and biological parameters routinely applied, allow to discriminate around two third of the patients who should benefit from a salvage intensive regimen in the setting of refractory/relapsed AML patients. The other one third of the patients should receive investigational therapy.

  2. A Novel and Validated Inflammation-Based Score (IBS) Predicts Survival in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Following Curative Surgical Resection: A STROBE-Compliant Article.

    PubMed

    Fu, Yi-Peng; Ni, Xiao-Chun; Yi, Yong; Cai, Xiao-Yan; He, Hong-Wei; Wang, Jia-Xing; Lu, Zhu-Feng; Han, Xu; Cao, Ya; Zhou, Jian; Fan, Jia; Qiu, Shuang-Jian

    2016-02-01

    As chronic inflammation is involved in the pathogenesis and progression of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), we investigated the prognostic accuracy of a cluster of inflammatory scores, including the Glasgow Prognostic Score, modified Glasgow Prognostic Score, platelet to lymphocyte ratio, Prognostic Nutritional Index, Prognostic Index, and a novel Inflammation-Based Score (IBS) integrated preoperative and postoperative neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio in 2 independent cohorts. Further, we aimed to formulate an effective prognostic nomogram for HCC after hepatectomy.Prognostic value of inflammatory scores and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage were studied in a training cohort of 772 patients with HCC underwent hepatectomy. Independent predictors of survival identified in multivariate analysis were validated in an independent set of 349 patients with an overall similar clinical feature.In both training and validation cohorts, IBS, microscopic vascular invasion, and BCLC stage emerged as independent factors of overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). The predictive capacity of the IBS in both OS and RFS appeared superior to that of the other inflammatory scores in terms of C-index. Additionally, the formulated nomogram comprised IBS resulted in more accurate prognostic prediction compared with BCLC stage alone.IBS is a novel and validated prognostic indicator of HCC after curative resection, and a robust HCC nomogram including IBS was developed to predict survival for patients after hepatectomy. PMID:26886627

  3. A new extranodal scoring system based on the prognostically relevant extranodal sites in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, not otherwise specified treated with chemoimmunotherapy.

    PubMed

    Hwang, Hee Sang; Yoon, Dok Hyun; Suh, Cheolwon; Huh, Jooryung

    2016-08-01

    Extranodal involvement is a well-known prognostic factor in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphomas (DLBCL). Nevertheless, the prognostic impact of the extranodal scoring system included in the conventional international prognostic index (IPI) has been questioned in an era where rituximab treatment has become widespread. We investigated the prognostic impacts of individual sites of extranodal involvement in 761 patients with DLBCL who received rituximab-based chemoimmunotherapy. Subsequently, we established a new extranodal scoring system based on extranodal sites, showing significant prognostic correlation, and compared this system with conventional scoring systems, such as the IPI and the National Comprehensive Cancer Network-IPI (NCCN-IPI). An internal validation procedure, using bootstrapped samples, was also performed for both univariate and multivariate models. Using multivariate analysis with a backward variable selection, we found nine extranodal sites (the liver, lung, spleen, central nervous system, bone marrow, kidney, skin, adrenal glands, and peritoneum) that remained significant for use in the final model. Our newly established extranodal scoring system, based on these sites, was better correlated with patient survival than standard scoring systems, such as the IPI and the NCCN-IPI. Internal validation by bootstrapping demonstrated an improvement in model performance of our modified extranodal scoring system. Our new extranodal scoring system, based on the prognostically relevant sites, may improve the performance of conventional prognostic models of DLBCL in the rituximab era and warrants further external validation using large study populations. PMID:27167532

  4. Total Plasma Protein in Very Preterm Babies: Prognostic Value and Comparison with Illness Severity Scores

    PubMed Central

    Iacobelli, Silvia; Bonsante, Francesco; Quantin, Catherine; Robillard, Pierre-Yves; Binquet, Christine; Gouyon, Jean-Bernard

    2013-01-01

    Objective We aimed to investigate the predictive value for severe adverse outcome of plasma protein measurements on day one of life in very preterm infants and to compare total plasma protein levels with the validated illness severity scores CRIB, CRIB-II, SNAP-II and SNAPPE-II, regarding their predictive ability for severe adverse outcome. Methods We analyzed a cohort of infants born at 24–31 weeks gestation, admitted to the tertiary intensive care unit of a university hospital over 10.5 years. The outcome measure was “severe adverse outcome” defined as death before discharge or severe neurological injury on cranial ultrasound. The adjusted odd ratio (aOR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) of severe adverse outcome for hypoproteinemia (total plasma protein level <40 g/L) was calculated by univariate and multivariate analyses. Calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit) was performed and the predictive ability for severe adverse outcome was assessed for total plasma protein and compared with CRIB, CRIB-II, SNAP-II and SNAPPE-II, by calculating receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and their associated area under the curve (AUC). Results 761 infants were studied: 14.4% died and 4.1% survived with severe cerebral ultrasound findings. The aOR of severe adverse outcome for hypoproteinemia was 6.1 (95% CI 3.8–9.9). The rank order for variables, as assessed by AUCs and 95% CIs, in predicting outcome was: total plasma protein [0.849 (0.821–0.873)], SNAPPE-II [0.822 (0.792–0.848)], CRIB [0.821 (0.792–0.848)], SNAP-II [0.810 (0.780–0.837)] and CRIB-II [0.803 (0.772–0.830)]. Total plasma protein predicted severe adverse outcome significantly better than CRIB-II and SNAP-II (both p<0.05). Calibration for total plasma protein was very good. Conclusions Early hypoproteinemia has prognostic value for severe adverse outcome in very preterm, sick infants. Total plasma protein has a predictive performance comparable with CRIB and SNAPPE-II and

  5. Scoring Systems to Estimate Intracerebral Control and Survival Rates of Patients Irradiated for Brain Metastases;Brain metastases; Radiation therapy; Local control; Survival; Prognostic scores

    SciTech Connect

    Rades, Dirk; Dziggel, Liesa; Haatanen, Tiina; Veninga, Theo; Lohynska, Radka; Dunst, Juergen; Schild, Steven E.

    2011-07-15

    Purpose: To create and validate scoring systems for intracerebral control (IC) and overall survival (OS) of patients irradiated for brain metastases. Methods and Materials: In this study, 1,797 patients were randomly assigned to the test (n = 1,198) or the validation group (n = 599). Two scoring systems were developed, one for IC and another for OS. The scores included prognostic factors found significant on multivariate analyses. Age, performance status, extracerebral metastases, interval tumor diagnosis to RT, and number of brain metastases were associated with OS. Tumor type, performance status, interval, and number of brain metastases were associated with IC. The score for each factor was determined by dividing the 6-month IC or OS rate (given in percent) by 10. The total score represented the sum of the scores for each factor. The score groups of the test group were compared with the corresponding score groups of the validation group. Results: In the test group, 6-month IC rates were 17% for 14-18 points, 49% for 19-23 points, and 77% for 24-27 points (p < 0.0001). IC rates in the validation group were 19%, 52%, and 77%, respectively (p < 0.0001). In the test group, 6-month OS rates were 9% for 15-19 points, 41% for 20-25 points, and 78% for 26-30 points (p < 0.0001). OS rates in the validation group were 7%, 39%, and 79%, respectively (p < 0.0001). Conclusions: Patients irradiated for brain metastases can be given scores to estimate OS and IC. IC and OS rates of the validation group were similar to the test group demonstrating the validity and reproducibility of both scores.

  6. Prognostics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goebel, Kai; Vachtsevanos, George; Orchard, Marcos E.

    2013-01-01

    Knowledge discovery, statistical learning, and more specifically an understanding of the system evolution in time when it undergoes undesirable fault conditions, are critical for an adequate implementation of successful prognostic systems. Prognosis may be understood as the generation of long-term predictions describing the evolution in time of a particular signal of interest or fault indicator, with the purpose of estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of a failing component/subsystem. Predictions are made using a thorough understanding of the underlying processes and factor in the anticipated future usage.

  7. A Molecular Score by Quantitative PCR as a New Prognostic Tool at Diagnosis for Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia Patients

    PubMed Central

    Stamatopoulos, Basile; Meuleman, Nathalie; De Bruyn, Cécile; Pieters, Karlien; Anthoine, Géraldine; Mineur, Philippe; Bron, Dominique; Lagneaux, Laurence

    2010-01-01

    Background Several markers have been proposed to predict the outcome of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) patients. However, discordances exist between the current prognostic factors, indicating that none of these factors are totally perfect. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we compared the prognostic power of new RNA-based markers in order to construct a quantitative PCR (qPCR) score composed of the most powerful factors. ZAP70, LPL, CLLU1, microRNA-29c and microRNA-223 were measured by real time PCR in a cohort of 170 patients with a median follow-up of 64 months (range3-330). For each patient, cells were obtained at diagnosis and RNA was extracted from purified CD19 cells. The best markers were included in a qPCR score, which was thereafter compared to each individual factor. Statistical analysis showed that all five RNA-based markers can predict treatment-free survival (TFS), but only ZAP70, LPL and microRNA-29c could significantly predict overall survival (OS). These three markers were thus included in a simple qPCR score that was able to significantly predict TFS and OS by dividing patients into three groups (0/3, 1-2/3 and 3/3). Median TFS were >210, 61 and 24 months (P<0.0001) and median OS were >330, 242 and 137 months (P<0.0001), respectively. Interestingly, TFS results were also confirmed in Binet stage A patients (P<0.0001). When compared to other classical factors, this score displays the highest univariate Cox hazard ratio (TFS: HR = 9.45 and OS: HR = 13.88) but also provides additional prognostic information. Conclusions In our hands, this score is the most powerful tool for CLL risk stratification at the time of diagnosis. PMID:20862275

  8. Prognostic Relevance of the Peritoneal Surface Disease Severity Score Compared to the Peritoneal Cancer Index for Colorectal Peritoneal Carcinomatosis

    PubMed Central

    Ng, Jia Lin; Ong, Whee Sze; Chia, Claramae Shulyn; Tan, Grace Hwei Ching; Soo, Khee-Chee; Teo, Melissa Ching Ching

    2016-01-01

    Background. Peritoneal Carcinomatosis Index (PCI) is a widely established scoring system that describes disease burden in isolated colorectal peritoneal carcinomatosis (CPC). Its significance may be diminished with complete cytoreduction. We explore the utility of the recently described Peritoneal Surface Disease Severity Score (PSDSS) and compare its prognostic value against PCI. Methods. The endpoints were overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and survival less than 18 months (18 MS). Results. Fifty patients underwent cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (CRS/HIPEC) for CPC from 2003 to 2014, with 98% achieving complete cytoreduction. Median OS was 28.8 months (95% CI, 18.0–39.1); median PFS was 9.4 months (95% CI, 7.7–13.9). Univariate analysis showed that higher PCI was significantly associated with poorer OS (HR 1.11; 95% CI, 1.03–1.20) and PFS (HR 1.09; 95% CI, 1.03–1.14). Conversely, PSDSS was not associated with either endpoint. Multivariate analysis showed that PCI, but not PSDSS, was predictive of OS and PFS. PCI was also able to discriminate survival outcomes better than PSDSS for both OS and PFS. There was no association between 18 MS and either score. Conclusion. PCI is superior to PSDSS in predicting OS and PFS and remains the prognostic score of choice in CPC patients undergoing CRS/HIPEC. PMID:27006828

  9. Association Between Nutritional Status, Inflammatory Condition, and Prognostic Indexes with Postoperative Complications and Clinical Outcome of Patients with Gastrointestinal Neoplasia.

    PubMed

    Costa, Milena Damasceno de Souza; Vieira de Melo, Camila Yandara Sousa; Amorim, Ana Carolina Ribeiro de; Cipriano Torres, Dilênia de Oliveira; Dos Santos, Ana Célia Oliveira

    2016-10-01

    The aim of this study is to describe and relate nutritional and inflammatory status and prognostic indexes with postoperative complications and clinical outcome of patients with gastrointestinal malignancies. Twenty-nine patients were evaluated; nutritional assessment was carried out by subjective and objective parameters; albumin, pre-albumin, C-reactive protein (CRP), and alpha-1-acid glycoprotein (AGP) were determined. To assess prognosis, the Glasgow scale, the Prognostic Inflammatory Nutritional Index (PINI), and CRP/albumin ratio were used; the clinical outcomes considered were hospital discharge and death. A high Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) score was associated with the occurrence of postoperative complications: 73% of the patients with postoperative complications had the highest SGA score, but only 6% of those without postoperative complications had the highest SGA score (P < 0.001). Greater occurrence of death was observed in patients with a high SGA score, low serum albumin, increased CRP, PINI > 1, and Glasgow score 2. There was a positive correlation between weight loss percentage with serum CRP levels (P = 0.002), CRP/albumin (P = 0.002), PINI (P = 0.002), and Glasgow score (P = 0.000). This study provides evidence that the assessment of the nutritional status and the use of prognostic indexes are good tools for predicting postoperative complications and clinical outcome in patients with gastrointestinal neoplasia.

  10. Validating a Prognostic Scoring System for Postmastectomy Locoregional Recurrence in Breast Cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Cheng, Skye Hung-Chun; Tsai, Stella Y.; Yu, Ben-Long; Horng, Cheng-Fang; Chen, Chii-Ming; Jian, James J.; Chu, Nan-Min; Tsou, Mei-Hua; Liu, Mei-Ching; Huang, Andrew T.; Prosnitz, Leonard R.

    2013-03-15

    Purpose: This study is designed to validate a previously developed locoregional recurrence risk (LRR) scoring system and further define which groups of patients with breast cancer would benefit from postmastectomy radiation therapy (PMRT). Methods and Materials: An LRR risk scoring system was developed previously at our institution using breast cancer patients initially treated with modified radical mastectomy between 1990 and 2001. The LRR score comprised 4 factors: patient age, lymphovascular invasion, estrogen receptor negativity, and number of involved lymph nodes. We sought to validate the original study by examining a new dataset of 1545 patients treated between 2002 and 2007. Results: The 1545 patients were scored according to the previously developed criteria: 920 (59.6%) were low risk (score 0-1), 493 (31.9%) intermediate risk (score 2-3), and 132 (8.5%) were high risk (score ≥4). The 5-year locoregional control rates with and without PMRT in low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups were 98% versus 97% (P=.41), 97% versus 91% (P=.0005), and 89% versus 50% (P=.0002) respectively. Conclusions: This analysis of an additional 1545 patients treated between 2002 and 2007 validates our previously reported LRR scoring system and suggests appropriate patients for whom PMRT will be beneficial. Independent validation of this scoring system by other institutions is recommended.

  11. QT dispersion and prognostication of the outcome in acute cardiotoxicities: A comparison with SAPS II and APACHE II scoring systems.

    PubMed

    Hassanian-Moghaddam, Hossein; Amiri, Hassan; Zamani, Nasim; Rahimi, Mitra; Shadnia, Shahin; Taherkhani, Maryam

    2014-06-01

    We aimed to evaluate the efficacy of QT dispersion (QTD) in determining the outcome of the patients poisoned by cardiotoxic medications and toxins. Patients who referred to our emergency department (ED) due to acute toxicity with any cardiotoxic medication or toxin and were admitted to medical toxicology intensive care unit (MTICU) were enrolled into the study. A questionnaire containing the demographic characteristics, vital signs, laboratory tests, electrocardiographic (ECG) parameters of the first ECG taken on MTICU or ED admission, simplified acute physiology score (SAPS), and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) score was filled for every single patient. QTD was manually calculated. The patients were divided into two groups of survivors and non-survivors and compared. Although QTD was not significantly different between the survivors and non-survivors (P = 0.8), SAPS II and APACHE II score were so. SAPS and APACHE had the highest sensitivity and specificity in determining the patients' mortality, respectively. SAPS had the highest sensitivity, and QTD had the highest specificity in predicting the later development of the complications. SAPS II and APACHE II scoring systems are the best systems for prognostication of death in patients with acute cardiotoxic medication-induced poisonings. QTD can be successfully used for the prediction of complications.

  12. A new simple morphology-based risk score is prognostic in stage I/II colon cancers.

    PubMed

    Märkl, Bruno; Märkl, Maximilian; Schaller, Tina; Mayr, Patrick; Schenkirsch, Gerhard; Kriening, Bernadette; Anthuber, Matthias

    2016-07-01

    A portion of stage I/II colon cancers (10-20%) exhibit an adverse clinical course. The administration of adjuvant chemotherapy is recommended only in certain high-risk situations. However, these risk factors recently failed to predict benefit from adjuvant therapy. We composed a new morphology-based risk score that includes pT1/2 versus 3/4 stage, vascular or lymphovascular invasion, invasion type according to Jass, tumor budding and paucity (less than two) of lymph nodes larger than 5 mm. The occurrence of each of these factors accounts for one point in the score (Range 0-5). This score was evaluated in a retrospective study that included 301 cases. The overall survival differed significantly between the three groups with median survival times of 103, 90, and 48 months, respectively. Multivariable analysis revealed morphology-based risk-high risk and low risk-as the sole independent factors for the prediction of death. Morphology-based risk scoring was superior to microsatellite status and NCCN risk stratification. This method identifies a group of patients that comprises 18% of the stage II cases with an adverse clinical course. Further studies are necessary to confirm its prognostic value and the possible therapeutic consequences. PMID:27167601

  13. Additive prognostic value of the SYNTAX score over GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE, CADILLAC and PAMI risk scores in patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction treated by primary percutaneous coronary intervention.

    PubMed

    Brkovic, Voin; Dobric, Milan; Beleslin, Branko; Giga, Vojislav; Vukcevic, Vladan; Stojkovic, Sinisa; Stankovic, Goran; Nedeljkovic, Milan A; Orlic, Dejan; Tomasevic, Miloje; Stepanovic, Jelena; Ostojic, Miodrag

    2013-08-01

    This study evaluated additive prognostic value of the SYNTAX score over GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE, CADILLAC and PAMI risk scores in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI). All six scores were calculated in 209 consecutive STEMI patients undergoing pPCI. Primary end-point was the major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE--composite of cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction and stroke); secondary end point was cardiovascular mortality. Patients were stratified according to the SYNTAX score tertiles (≤12; between 12 and 19.5; >19.5). The median follow-up was 20 months. Rates of MACE and cardiovascular mortality were highest in the upper tertile of the SYNTAX score (p < 0.001 and p = 0.003, respectively). SYNTAX score was independent multivariable predictor of MACE and cardiovascular mortality when added to GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE, and PAMI risk scores. However, the SYNTAX score did not improve the Cox regression models of MACE and cardiovascular mortality when added to the CADILLAC score. The SYNTAX score has predictive value for MACE and cardiovascular mortality in patients with STEMI undergoing primary PCI. Furthermore, SYNTAX score improves prognostic performance of well-established GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE and PAMI clinical scores, but not the CADILLAC risk score. Therefore, long-term survival in patients after STEMI depends less on detailed angiographical characterization of coronary lesions, but more on clinical characteristics, myocardial function and basic angiographic findings as provided by the CADILLAC score.

  14. MELD Score Kinetics in Decompensated HIV+/HCV+ Patients: A Useful Prognostic Tool (ANRS HC EP 25 PRETHEVIC Cohort Study).

    PubMed

    Gelu-Simeon, Moana; Bayan, Tatiana; Ostos, Maria; Boufassa, Faroudy; Teicher, Elina; Steyaert, Jean-Marc; Bertucci, Inga; Anty, Rodolphe; Pageaux, Georges-Philippe; Meyer, Laurence; Duclos-Vallée, Jean-Charles

    2015-07-01

    To assess prognostic factors for survival and describe Model for End-Stage liver disease (MELD) dynamics in human immunodeficiency virus+/hepatitis C virus+ (HIV+/HCV+) patients after an initial episode of hepatic decompensation.An HIV+/HCV+ cohort of patients experiencing an initial decompensation episode within the year preceding enrollment were followed prospectively. Clinical and biological data were collected every 3 months. Predictors for survival were identified using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox models. A 2-slope-mixed linear model was used to estimate MELD score changes as a function of survival.Sixty seven patients were included in 32 centers between 2009 and 2012 (72% male; median age: 48 years [interquartile ratio (IQR):45-52], median follow-up: 22.4 months [range: 0.5-65.3]). Overall survival rates were 86%, 78%, and 59% at 6, 12, and 24 months, respectively. Under multivariate analysis, the MELD score at initial decompensation was predictive of survival, adjusted for age, type of decompensation, baseline CD4 counts, and further decompensation during follow-up as a time-dependent variable. The adjusted hazard ratio of death was 1.32 for a score 3 points higher (95% CI: [1.06-1.63], P = 0.012). MELD score kinetics within the 6 months after initial decompensation differed significantly between non-deceased and deceased patients, with a decreased (-0.49/month; P = 0.016), versus a flat (+0.06/month, P = 0.753) mean change in score.MELD is an effective tool to predict survival in HIV+/HCV+ patients with decompensated cirrhosis. A non-decreasing MELD score within 6 months following this initial decompensation episode may benefit from privileged access to liver transplantation in this poor prognosis population. PMID:26222860

  15. Prognostic index score and clinical prediction model of local regional recurrence after mastectomy in breast cancer patients

    SciTech Connect

    Cheng, Skye Hongiun . E-mail: skye@mail.kfcc.org.tw; Horng, C.-F.; Clarke, Jennifer L.; Tsou, M.-H.; Tsai, Stella Y.; Chen, C.-M.; Jian, James J.; Liu, M.-C.; West, Mike; Huang, Andrew T.; Prosnitz, Leonard R.

    2006-04-01

    Purpose: To develop clinical prediction models for local regional recurrence (Lr) of breast carcinoma after mastectomy that will be superior to the conventional measures of tumor size and nodal status. Methods and Materials: Clinical information from 1,010 invasive breast cancer patients who had primary modified radical mastectomy formed the database of the training and testing of clinical prognostic and prediction models of LRR. Cox proportional hazards analysis and Bayesian tree analysis were the core methodologies from which these models were built. To generate a prognostic index model, 15 clinical variables were examined for their impact on LRR. Patients were stratified by lymph node involvement (<4 vs. {>=}4) and local regional status (recurrent vs. control) and then, within strata, randomly split into training and test data sets of equal size. To establish prediction tree models, 255 patients were selected by the criteria of having had LRR (53 patients) or no evidence of LRR without postmastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT) (202 patients). Results: With these models, patients can be divided into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups on the basis of axillary nodal status, estrogen receptor status, lymphovascular invasion, and age at diagnosis. In the low-risk group, there is no influence of PMRT on either LRR or survival. For intermediate-risk patients, PMRT improves LR control but not metastases-free or overall survival. For the high-risk patients, however, PMRT improves both LR control and metastasis-free and overall survival. Conclusion: The prognostic score and predictive index are useful methods to estimate the risk of LRR in breast cancer patients after mastectomy and for estimating the potential benefits of PMRT. These models provide additional information criteria for selection of patients for PMRT, compared with the traditional selection criteria of nodal status and tumor size.

  16. Proposal for a New Prognostic Score for Linac-Based Radiosurgery in Cerebral Arteriovenous Malformations

    SciTech Connect

    Milker-Zabel, Stefanie; Kopp-Schneider, Annette; Wiesbauer, Hannah; Schlegel, Wolfgang; Huber, Peter; Debus, Juergen; Zabel-du Bois, Angelika

    2012-06-01

    Purpose: We evaluate patient-, angioma-, and treatment-specific factors for successful obliteration of cerebral arteriovenous malformations (AVM) to develop a new appropriate score to predict patient outcome after linac-based radiosurgery (RS). Methods and Materials: This analysis in based on 293 patients with cerebral AVM. Mean age at treatment was 38.8 years (4-73 years). AVM classification according Spetzler-Martin was 55 patients Grade I (20.5%), 114 Grade II (42.5%), 79 Grade III (29.5%), 19 Grade IV (7.1%), and 1 Grade V (0.4%). Median maximum AVM diameter was 3.0 cm (range, 0.3-10 cm). Median dose prescribed to the 80% isodose was 18 Gy (range, 12-22 Gy). Eighty-five patients (29.1%) had prior partial embolization; 141 patients (51.9%) experienced intracranial hemorrhage before RS. Median follow-up was 4.2 years. Results: Age at treatment, maximum diameter, nidus volume, and applied dose were significant factors for successful obliteration. Under presumption of proportional hazard in the dose range between 12 and 22 Gy/80% isodose, an increase of obliteration rate of approximately 25% per Gy was seen. On the basis of multivariate analysis, a prediction score was calculated including AVM maximum diameter and age at treatment. The prediction error up to the time point 8 years was 0.173 for the Heidelberg score compared with the Kaplan-Meier value of 0.192. An increase of the score of 1 point results in a decrease of obliteration chance by a factor of 0.447. Conclusion: The proposed score is linac-based radiosurgery-specific and easy to handle to predict patient outcome. Further validation on an independent patient cohort is necessary.

  17. Prognostic Utility of Calcium Scoring as an Adjunct to Stress Myocardial Perfusion Scintigraphy in End-Stage Renal Disease

    PubMed Central

    Moody, William E.; Lin, Erica L.S.; Stoodley, Matthew; McNulty, David; Thomson, Louise E.; Berman, Daniel S.; Edwards, Nicola C.; Holloway, Benjamin; Ferro, Charles J.; Townend, Jonathan N.; Steeds, Richard P.

    2016-01-01

    Coronary artery calcium score (CACS) is a strong predictor of adverse cardiovascular events in the general population. Recent data confirm the prognostic utility of single-photon emission computed tomographic (SPECT) imaging in end-stage renal disease, but whether performing CACS as part of hybrid imaging improves risk prediction in this population is unclear. Consecutive patients (n = 284) were identified after referral to a university hospital for cardiovascular risk stratification in assessment for renal transplantation. Participants underwent technetium-99m SPECT imaging after exercise or standard adenosine stress in those unable to achieve 85% maximal heart rate; multislice CACS was also performed (Siemens Symbia T16, Siemens, Erlangen, Germany). Subjects with known coronary artery disease (n = 88) and those who underwent early revascularization (n = 2) were excluded. The primary outcome was a composite of death or first myocardial infarction. An abnormal SPECT perfusion result was seen in 22% (43 of 194) of subjects, whereas 45% (87 of 194) had at least moderate CACS (>100 U). The frequency of abnormal perfusion (summed stress score ≥4) increased with increasing CACS severity (p = 0.049). There were a total of 15 events (8 deaths, and 7 myocardial infarctions) after a median duration of 18 months (maximum follow-up 3.4 years). Univariate analysis showed diabetes mellitus (Hazard ratio [HR] 3.30, 95% CI 1.14 to 9.54; p = 0.028), abnormal perfusion on SPECT (HR 5.32, 95% CI 1.84 to 15.35; p = 0.002), and moderate-to-severe CACS (HR 3.55, 95% CI 1.11 to 11.35; p = 0.032) were all associated with the primary outcome. In a multivariate model, abnormal perfusion on SPECT (HR 4.18, 95% CI 1.43 to 12.27; p = 0.009), but not moderate-to-severe CACS (HR 2.50, 95% CI 0.76 to 8.20; p = 0.130), independently predicted all-cause death or myocardial infarction. The prognostic value of CACS was not incremental to clinical and SPECT perfusion data (global chi

  18. Prognostic Utility of Calcium Scoring as an Adjunct to Stress Myocardial Perfusion Scintigraphy in End-Stage Renal Disease.

    PubMed

    Moody, William E; Lin, Erica L S; Stoodley, Matthew; McNulty, David; Thomson, Louise E; Berman, Daniel S; Edwards, Nicola C; Holloway, Benjamin; Ferro, Charles J; Townend, Jonathan N; Steeds, Richard P

    2016-05-01

    Coronary artery calcium score (CACS) is a strong predictor of adverse cardiovascular events in the general population. Recent data confirm the prognostic utility of single-photon emission computed tomographic (SPECT) imaging in end-stage renal disease, but whether performing CACS as part of hybrid imaging improves risk prediction in this population is unclear. Consecutive patients (n = 284) were identified after referral to a university hospital for cardiovascular risk stratification in assessment for renal transplantation. Participants underwent technetium-99m SPECT imaging after exercise or standard adenosine stress in those unable to achieve 85% maximal heart rate; multislice CACS was also performed (Siemens Symbia T16, Siemens, Erlangen, Germany). Subjects with known coronary artery disease (n = 88) and those who underwent early revascularization (n = 2) were excluded. The primary outcome was a composite of death or first myocardial infarction. An abnormal SPECT perfusion result was seen in 22% (43 of 194) of subjects, whereas 45% (87 of 194) had at least moderate CACS (>100 U). The frequency of abnormal perfusion (summed stress score ≥4) increased with increasing CACS severity (p = 0.049). There were a total of 15 events (8 deaths, and 7 myocardial infarctions) after a median duration of 18 months (maximum follow-up 3.4 years). Univariate analysis showed diabetes mellitus (Hazard ratio [HR] 3.30, 95% CI 1.14 to 9.54; p = 0.028), abnormal perfusion on SPECT (HR 5.32, 95% CI 1.84 to 15.35; p = 0.002), and moderate-to-severe CACS (HR 3.55, 95% CI 1.11 to 11.35; p = 0.032) were all associated with the primary outcome. In a multivariate model, abnormal perfusion on SPECT (HR 4.18, 95% CI 1.43 to 12.27; p = 0.009), but not moderate-to-severe CACS (HR 2.50, 95% CI 0.76 to 8.20; p = 0.130), independently predicted all-cause death or myocardial infarction. The prognostic value of CACS was not incremental to clinical and SPECT perfusion data (global chi-square change

  19. Low Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI) Predicts Unfavorable Distant Metastasis-Free Survival in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: A Propensity Score-Matched Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Hong, Shaodong; Chen, Haiyang; Liang, Shaobo; Peng, Peijian; Chen, Yong

    2016-01-01

    Background Poor nutritional status is associated with progression and advanced disease in patients with cancer. The prognostic nutritional index (PNI) may represent a simple method of assessing host immunonutritional status. This study was designed to investigate the prognostic value of the PNI for distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Methods A training cohort of 1,168 patients with non-metastatic NPC from two institutions was retrospectively analyzed. The optimal PNI cutoff value for DMFS was identified using the online tool “Cutoff Finder”. DMFS was analyzed using stratified and adjusted analysis. Propensity score-matched analysis was performed to balance baseline characteristics between the high and low PNI groups. Subsequently, the prognostic value of the PNI for DMFS was validated in an external validation cohort of 756 patients with NPC. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) was calculated to compare the discriminatory ability of different prognostic scores. Results The optimal PNI cutoff value was determined to be 51. Low PNI was significantly associated with poorer DMFS than high PNI in univariate analysis (P<0.001) as well as multivariate analysis (P<0.001) before propensity score matching. In subgroup analyses, PNI could also stratify different risks of distant metastases. Propensity score-matched analyses confirmed the prognostic value of PNI, excluding other interpretations and selection bias. In the external validation cohort, patients with high PNI also had significantly lower risk of distant metastases than those with low PNI (Hazards Ratios, 0.487; P<0.001). The PNI consistently showed a higher AUC value at 1-year (0.780), 3-year (0.793) and 5-year (0.812) in comparison with other prognostic scores. Conclusion PNI, an inexpensive and easily assessable inflammatory index, could aid clinicians in developing individualized treatment and follow-up strategies for patients

  20. Brain Metastases From Breast Carcinoma: Validation of the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group Recursive Partitioning Analysis Classification and Proposition of a New Prognostic Score

    SciTech Connect

    Le Scodan, Romuald Massard, Christophe; Mouret-Fourme, Emmanuelle; Guinebretierre, Jean Marc; Cohen-Solal, Christine; De Lalande, Brigitte; Moisson, Patricia; Breton-Callu, Christelle; Gardner, Miriam; Goupil, Alain; Renody, Nicole; Floiras, Jean Louis; Labib, Alain

    2007-11-01

    Purpose: To validate the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group Recursive Partitioning Analysis (RTOG RPA) classification and determine independent prognostic factors, to create a simple and specific prognostic score for patients with brain metastases (BM) from breast carcinoma treated with whole-brain radiotherapy (WBRT). Methods and Materials: From January 1998 through December 2003, 132 patients with BM from breast carcinoma were treated with WBRT. We analyzed several potential predictors of survival after WBRT: age, Karnofsky performance status, RTOG-RPA class, number of BM, presence and site of other systemic metastases, interval between primary tumor and BM, tumor hormone receptor (HR) status, lymphocyte count, and HER-2 overexpression. Results: A total of 117 patients received exclusive WBRT and were analyzed. Median survival with BM was 5 months. One-year and 2-year survival rates were 27.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 19.9-36.8%) and 12% (95% CI 6.5-21.2%), respectively. In multivariate analysis, RTOG RPA Class III, lymphopenia ({<=}0.7 x 10{sup 9}/L) and HR negative status were independent prognostic factors for poor survival. We constructed a three-factor prognostic scoring system that predicts 6-month and 1-year rates of overall survival in the range of 76.1-29.5% (p = 0.00033) and 60.9-15.9% (p = 0.0011), respectively, with median survival of 15 months, 5 months, or 3 months for patients with none, one, or more than one adverse prognostic factor(s), respectively. Conclusions: This study confirms the prognostic value of the RTOG RPA classification, lymphopenia, and tumor HR status, which can be used to form a prognostic score for patients with BM from breast carcinoma.

  1. Prognostic factors in patients with intracerebral haematoma.

    PubMed Central

    Franke, C L; van Swieten, J C; Algra, A; van Gijn, J

    1992-01-01

    In a prospective study, the prognostic value of clinical characteristics in 157 consecutive patients with spontaneous supratentorial intracerebral haemorrhage were examined by means of multivariate analysis. Two days after the event 37 (24%) patients had died. Factors independently contributing to the prediction of two day mortality were pineal gland displacement on CT of 3 mm or more (p less than 0.001), blood glucose level on admission of 8.0 mmol/l or more (p = 0.01), eye and motor score on the Glasgow Coma Scale of eight out of 10 or less (p = 0.022) and haematoma volume of 40 cm3 or more (p = 0.037). Between the third day and one year after the event another 46 of the 120 two day survivors had died; the independent prognostic indicators for death during that period were: age 70 years or more (p less than 0.001) and severe handicap (Rankin grade five) on the third day (p less than 0.001). Functional independence (Rankin grade two or less) at one year was most common not only with the converse features of age less than 70 years (p less than 0.01) and Rankin grade four or less on the third day (p = 0.002), but also with an eye and motor score on the Glasgow Coma Scale of nine or 10 on the third day (p less than 0.001). The 120 patients with intracerebral haemorrhage who were still alive two days after the event were matched with 120 patients with cerebral infarction, according to age, level of consciousness on the third day after stroke (Glasgow Coma Scale) and handicap (Rankin grade). Survival and handicap after one year did not differ between these two groups. The conclusion drawn is that it is not the cause (intracerebral haemorrhage or cerebral infarction) but the extent of the brain lesion that determines the outcome in patients who survive the first two days. PMID:1527534

  2. Prognostic Significance of Neuroendocrine Differentiation in Patients With Gleason Score 8-10 Prostate Cancer Treated With Primary Radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Krauss, Daniel J.; Hayek, Sylvia; Amin, Mitual; Ye Hong; Kestin, Larry L.; Zadora, Steven; Vicini, Frank A.; Cotant, Matthew; Brabbins, Donald S.; Ghilezan, Michel I.; Gustafson, Gary S.; Martinez, Alvaro A.

    2011-11-01

    Purpose: To determine the prognostic significance of neuroendocrine differentiation (NED) in Gleason score 8-10 prostate cancer treated with primary radiotherapy (RT). Methods and Materials: Chromogranin A (CgA) staining was performed and overseen by a single pathologist on core biopsies from 176 patients from the William Beaumont prostate cancer database. A total of 143 had evaluable biopsy material. Staining was quantified as 0%, <1%, 1-10%, or >10% of tumor cells. Patients received external beam RT alone or together with high-dose-rate brachytherapy. Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier estimates determined if the presence/frequency of neuroendocrine cells correlated with clinical endpoints. Results: Median follow-up was 5.5 years. Forty patients (28%) had at least focal positive CgA staining (<1% n = 21, 1-10% n = 11, >10% n = 8). No significant differences existed between patients with or without staining in terms of age, pretreatment prostate-specific antigen, tumor stage, hormone therapy administration, % biopsy core involvement, mean Gleason score, or RT dose/modality. CgA staining concentration independently predicted for biochemical and clinical failure, distant metastases (DM), and cause-specific survival (CSS). For patients with <1% vs. >1% staining, 10-year DM rates were 13.4% vs. 55.3%, respectively (p = 0.001), and CSS was 91.7% vs. 58.9% (p < 0.001). As a continuous variable, increasing CgA staining concentration predicted for inferior rates of DM, CSS, biochemical control, and any clinical failure. No differences in outcomes were appreciated for patients with 0% vs. <1% NED. Conclusions: For Gleason score 8-10 prostate cancer, >1% NED is associated with inferior clinical outcomes for patients treated with radiotherapy. This relates most directly to an increase in distant disease failure.

  3. Prognostic Value of Coronary Computed Tomography (CT) Angiography and Coronary Artery Calcium Score Performed Before Revascularization

    PubMed Central

    Fujimoto, Shinichiro; Kondo, Takeshi; Kumamaru, Kanako K; Shinozaki, Tomohiro; Takamura, Kazuhisa; Kawaguchi, Yuko; Matsumori, Rie; Hiki, Makoto; Miyauchi, Katsumi; Daida, Hiroyuki; Rybicki, Frank J

    2015-01-01

    Background Cardiac events after revascularization are equally attributable to recurrence at site of culprit lesions and development of nonculprit lesions. We evaluated the hypothesis that coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography and coronary artery calcium score (CACS) performed before revascularization predicts cardiac events after treatment. Methods and Results Among 2238 consecutive patients without known coronary artery disease who underwent coronary CT angiography and CACS, 359 patients underwent revascularization within 30 days after CT; in 337 of 359 (93.9%) follow-up clinical information was available. In addition to known cardiac risk factors, CT findings were evaluated as predictors of cardiac events after revascularization: CACS and the presence of CT-verified high-risk plaque (CT-HRP). Improvement of predictive accuracy by including CT findings was evaluated from a discrimination (Harrell’s C-statistics) standpoint. During the follow-up period (median: 673, interquartile range: 47 to 1529 days), a total of 98 cardiac events occurred. Cox proportional hazard model revealed that age, diabetes, triglyceride, CACS, and nonculprit CT-HRP were significant predictors of overall cardiac events. Although not statistically significant, discriminatory power was greater for the model with CACS (C-stat: 63.2%) and the model with both CACS and CT-HRP (65.8%) compared to the model including neither CACS nor CT-HRP (60.7%). Conclusions High CACS and the presence of nonculprit CT-HRP performed before revascularization are significant predictors of cardiac events after revascularization. PMID:26296858

  4. Predicting outcome after traumatic brain injury: development of prognostic scores based on the IMPACT and the APACHE II.

    PubMed

    Raj, Rahul; Siironen, Jari; Kivisaari, Riku; Hernesniemi, Juha; Skrifvars, Markus B

    2014-10-15

    Prediction models are important tools for heterogeneity adjustment in clinical trials and for the evaluation of quality of delivered care to patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). We sought to improve the predictive performance of the IMPACT (International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials) prognostic model by combining it with the APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II) for 6-month outcome prediction in patients with TBI treated in the intensive care unit. A total of 890 patients with TBI admitted to a large urban level 1 trauma center in 2009-2012 comprised the study population. The IMPACT and the APACHE II scores were combined using binary logistic regression. A randomized, split-sample technique with secondary bootstrapping was used for model development and internal validation. Model performance was assessed by discrimination (by area under the curve [AUC]), calibration, precision, and net reclassification improvement (NRI). Overall 6-month mortality was 22% and unfavorable neurological outcome 47%. The predictive power of the new combined IMPACT-APACHE II models was significantly superior, compared to the original IMPACT models (AUC, 0.81-0.82 vs. 0.84-0.85; p<0.05) for 6-month mortality prediction, but not for unfavorable outcome prediction (AUC, 0.81-0.82 vs. 0.83; p>0.05). However, NRI showed a significant improvement in risk stratification of patients with unfavorable outcome by the IMPACT-APACHE II models, compared to the original models (NRI, 5.4-23.2%; p<0.05). Internal validation using split-sample and resample bootstrap techniques yielded equivalent results, indicating low grade of overestimation. Our findings show that by combining the APACHE II with the IMPACT, improved 6-month outcome predictive performance is achieved. This may be applicable for heterogeneity adjustment in forthcoming TBI studies.

  5. Validation of the revised International Prognostic Score of Thrombosis for Essential Thrombocythemia (IPSET-thrombosis) in 585 Mayo Clinic patients.

    PubMed

    Haider, Mahnur; Gangat, Naseema; Lasho, Terra; Abou Hussein, Ahmed K; Elala, Yoseph C; Hanson, Curtis; Tefferi, Ayalew

    2016-06-01

    The primary objective of treatment in essential thrombocythemia (ET) is to prevent thromboembolic complications. In this regard, advanced age and thrombosis history have long distinguished "low" from "high" risk patients. More recently, JAK2V617F and cardiovascular (CV) risk factors were identified as additional modifiers, leading to the development of a 3-tiered International Prognostic Score of Thrombosis for ET (IPSET-thrombosis): "low," "intermediate," and "high". The international data set used to develop IPSET-thrombosis was recently re-analyzed in order to quantify the additional pro-thrombotic effect of JAK2V617F and CV risk factors in specific risk subcategories. The revised IPSET-thrombosis identified four risk categories based on three adverse variables (thrombosis history, age >60 years and JAK2V617F): very low (no adverse features), low (presence of JAK2V617F), intermediate (age >60 years) and high (presence of thrombosis history or presence of both advanced age and JAK2V617F). In this study of 585 patients with ET (median age 68 years; 61% female), we validated the revised IPSET-thrombosis by confirming significant differences in thrombosis risk between "very low" and "low" (HR 2.4, 95% CI 1.1 - 5.3) and between "intermediate" and "high" (HR 2.3, 95% CI 1.1 - 5.2) risk patients. Furthermore, in multivariable analysis, only JAK2V617F (HR=1.8, CI= 1.07 - 2.94) and history of thrombosis (HR=2.1, CI= 1.20 - 3.58) were independently predictive of future thrombotic events. The revised IPSET-thrombosis needs confirmation in prospective studies, especially in terms of risk-adapted therapy that includes the need for aspirin therapy in very low risk, twice-daily aspirin therapy for low risk and cytoreductive therapy for low or intermediate risk patients.

  6. Prospective validation of the CLIP score: a new prognostic system for patients with cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. The Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) Investigators.

    PubMed

    2000-04-01

    Prognosis of patients with cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) depends on both residual liver function and tumor extension. The CLIP score includes Child-Pugh stage, tumor morphology and extension, serum alfa-fetoprotein (AFP) levels, and portal vein thrombosis. We externally validated the CLIP score and compared its discriminatory ability and predictive power with that of the Okuda staging system in 196 patients with cirrhosis and HCC prospectively enrolled in a randomized trial. No significant associations were found between the CLIP score and the age, sex, and pattern of viral infection. There was a strong correlation between the CLIP score and the Okuda stage. As of June 1999, 150 patients (76.5%) had died. Median survival time was 11 months, overall, and it was 36, 22, 9, 7, and 3 months for CLIP categories 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 to 6, respectively. In multivariate analysis, the CLIP score had additional explanatory power above that of the Okuda stage. This was true for both patients treated with locoregional therapy or not. A quantitative estimation of 2-year survival predictive power showed that the CLIP score explained 37% of survival variability, compared with 21% explained by Okuda stage. In conclusion, the CLIP score, compared with the Okuda staging system, gives more accurate prognostic information, is statistically more efficient, and has a greater survival predictive power. It could be useful in treatment planning by improving baseline prognostic evaluation of patients with HCC, and could be used in prospective therapeutic trials as a stratification variable, reducing the variability of results owing to patient selection.

  7. Stage IV and age over 45 years are the only prognostic factors of the International Prognostic Score for the outcome of advanced Hodgkin lymphoma in the Spanish Hodgkin Lymphoma Study Group series.

    PubMed

    Guisado-Vasco, Pablo; Arranz-Saez, Reyes; Canales, Miguel; Cánovas, Araceli; Garcia-Laraña, José; García-Sanz, Ramón; Lopez, Andrés; López, José Luis; Llanos, Marta; Moraleda, José Maria; Rodriguez, José; Rayón, Consuelo; Sabin, Pilar; Salar, Antonio; Marín-Niebla, Ana; Morente, Manuel; Sánchez-Godoy, Pedro; Tomás, José Francisco; Muriel, Alfonso; Abraira, Victor; Piris, Miguel A; Garcia, Juán F; Montalban, Carlos

    2012-05-01

    The International Prognostic Score (IPS) is the most widely used system to date for identifying risk groups for the outcome of patients with advanced Hodgkin lymphoma, although important limitations have been recognized. We analyzed the value of the IPS in a series of 311 patients with advanced classical Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) (Ann Arbor stage III, IV or stage II with B symptoms and/or bulky masses) treated with first-line chemotherapy including adriamycin (adriamycin, bleomycin, vinblastine, dacarbazine [ABVD] or equivalent variants). In univariate and multivariate analyses, stage IV disease and age ≥ 45 years were the only factors with independent predictive significance for overall survival (OS) (p = 0.002 and p < 0.001, respectively). Stage IV was still significant for freedom from progression (FFP) (p = 0.001) and age ≥ 45 years was borderline significant (p = 0.058). IPS separates prognostic groups, as in the original publication, but this is mainly due to the high statistical significance of stage IV and age ≥ 45 years. Moreover, the combination of these two factors enables a simpler system to be constructed that separates groups with different FFP and OS. In conclusion, in our series, stage IV and age ≥ 45 years are the key prognostic factors for the outcome of advanced cHL.

  8. Validation of cytogenetic risk groups according to International Prognostic Scoring Systems by peripheral blood CD34+FISH: results from a German diagnostic study in comparison with an international control group

    PubMed Central

    Braulke, Friederike; Platzbecker, Uwe; Müller-Thomas, Catharina; Götze, Katharina; Germing, Ulrich; Brümmendorf, Tim H.; Nolte, Florian; Hofmann, Wolf-Karsten; Giagounidis, Aristoteles A. N.; Lübbert, Michael; Greenberg, Peter L.; Bennett, John M.; Solé, Francesc; Mallo, Mar; Slovak, Marilyn L.; Ohyashiki, Kazuma; Le Beau, Michelle M.; Tüchler, Heinz; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Nösslinger, Thomas; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Shirneshan, Katayoon; Aul, Carlo; Stauder, Reinhard; Sperr, Wolfgang R.; Valent, Peter; Fonatsch, Christa; Trümper, Lorenz; Haase, Detlef; Schanz, Julie

    2015-01-01

    International Prognostic Scoring Systems are used to determine the individual risk profile of myelodysplastic syndrome patients. For the assessment of International Prognostic Scoring Systems, an adequate chromosome banding analysis of the bone marrow is essential. Cytogenetic information is not available for a substantial number of patients (5%–20%) with dry marrow or an insufficient number of metaphase cells. For these patients, a valid risk classification is impossible. In the study presented here, the International Prognostic Scoring Systems were validated based on fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses using extended probe panels applied to cluster of differentiation 34 positive (CD34+) peripheral blood cells of 328 MDS patients of our prospective multicenter German diagnostic study and compared to chromosome banding results of 2902 previously published patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. For cytogenetic risk classification by fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of CD34+ peripheral blood cells, the groups differed significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival by uni- and multivariate analyses without discrepancies between treated and untreated patients. Including cytogenetic data of fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of peripheral CD34+ blood cells (instead of bone marrow banding analysis) into the complete International Prognostic Scoring System assessment, the prognostic risk groups separated significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival. Our data show that a reliable stratification to the risk groups of the International Prognostic Scoring Systems is possible from peripheral blood in patients with missing chromosome banding analysis by using a comprehensive probe panel (clinicaltrials.gov identifier:01355913). PMID:25344522

  9. Validation of cytogenetic risk groups according to International Prognostic Scoring Systems by peripheral blood CD34+FISH: results from a German diagnostic study in comparison with an international control group.

    PubMed

    Braulke, Friederike; Platzbecker, Uwe; Müller-Thomas, Catharina; Götze, Katharina; Germing, Ulrich; Brümmendorf, Tim H; Nolte, Florian; Hofmann, Wolf-Karsten; Giagounidis, Aristoteles A N; Lübbert, Michael; Greenberg, Peter L; Bennett, John M; Solé, Francesc; Mallo, Mar; Slovak, Marilyn L; Ohyashiki, Kazuma; Le Beau, Michelle M; Tüchler, Heinz; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Nösslinger, Thomas; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Shirneshan, Katayoon; Aul, Carlo; Stauder, Reinhard; Sperr, Wolfgang R; Valent, Peter; Fonatsch, Christa; Trümper, Lorenz; Haase, Detlef; Schanz, Julie

    2015-02-01

    International Prognostic Scoring Systems are used to determine the individual risk profile of myelodysplastic syndrome patients. For the assessment of International Prognostic Scoring Systems, an adequate chromosome banding analysis of the bone marrow is essential. Cytogenetic information is not available for a substantial number of patients (5%-20%) with dry marrow or an insufficient number of metaphase cells. For these patients, a valid risk classification is impossible. In the study presented here, the International Prognostic Scoring Systems were validated based on fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses using extended probe panels applied to cluster of differentiation 34 positive (CD34(+)) peripheral blood cells of 328 MDS patients of our prospective multicenter German diagnostic study and compared to chromosome banding results of 2902 previously published patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. For cytogenetic risk classification by fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of CD34(+) peripheral blood cells, the groups differed significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival by uni- and multivariate analyses without discrepancies between treated and untreated patients. Including cytogenetic data of fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of peripheral CD34(+) blood cells (instead of bone marrow banding analysis) into the complete International Prognostic Scoring System assessment, the prognostic risk groups separated significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival. Our data show that a reliable stratification to the risk groups of the International Prognostic Scoring Systems is possible from peripheral blood in patients with missing chromosome banding analysis by using a comprehensive probe panel (clinicaltrials.gov identifier:01355913). PMID:25344522

  10. Nutritional Risk in Major Abdominal Surgery: Protocol of a Prospective Observational Trial to Evaluate the Prognostic Value of Different Nutritional Scores in Pancreatic Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Probst, Pascal; Haller, Sebastian; Dörr-Harim, Colette; Bruckner, Thomas; Ulrich, Alexis; Hackert, Thilo; Diener, Markus K

    2015-01-01

    Background The influence of patients’ preoperative nutritional status on their clinical outcome has already been proven. Therefore, patients with malnutrition are in need of additional therapeutic efforts. However, for pancreatic surgery, evidence suggesting the adequacy of existing nutritional assessment scores to estimate malnutrition associated with postoperative outcome is limited. Objective The aim of the observational trial “Nutritional Risk in Major Abdominal Surgery (NURIMAS) Pancreas” is to prospectively assess and analyze different nutritional assessment scores for their prognostic value on postoperative complications in patients undergoing pancreatic surgery. Methods All patients scheduled to receive elective pancreatic surgery at the University Hospital of Heidelberg will be screened for eligibility. Preoperatively, 12 nutritional assessment scores will be collected and patients will be assigned either at risk or not at risk for malnutrition. The postoperative course will be followed prospectively and complications according to the Clavien-Dindo classification will be recorded. The prognostic value for complications will be evaluated for every score in a univariable and multivariable analysis corrected for known risk factors in pancreatic surgery. Results Final data analysis is expected to be available during Spring 2016. Conclusions The NURIMAS Pancreas trial is a monocentric, prospective, observational trial aiming to find the most predictive clinical nutritional assessment score for postoperative complications. Using the results of this protocol as a knowledge base, it is possible to conduct nutritional risk-guided intervention trials to prevent postoperative complications in the pancreatic surgical population. Trial Registration germanctr.de: DRKS00006340; https://drks-neu.uniklinik-freiburg.de/drks_web/navigate.do?navigationId=trial.HTML&TRIAL_ID=DRKS00006340 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6bzXWSRYZ) PMID:26573991

  11. Coalesced Multicentric Analysis of 2,351 Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndromes Indicates an Underestimation of Poor-Risk Cytogenetics of Myelodysplastic Syndromes in the International Prognostic Scoring System

    PubMed Central

    Schanz, Julie; Steidl, Christian; Fonatsch, Christa; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Nösslinger, Thomas; Tuechler, Heinz; Valent, Peter; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Giagounidis, Aristoteles; Aul, Carlo; Lübbert, Michael; Stauder, Reinhard; Krieger, Otto; Garcia-Manero, Guillermo; Kantarjian, Hagop; Germing, Ulrich; Haase, Detlef; Estey, Elihu

    2011-01-01

    Purpose The International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) remains the most commonly used system for risk classification in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDSs). The IPSS gives more weight to blast count than to cytogenetics. However, previous publications suggested that cytogenetics are underweighted in the IPSS. Here we investigate the prognostic impact of cytogenetic subgroups compared with that of bone marrow blast count in a large, multicentric, international patient cohort. Patients and Methods In total, 2,351 patients with MDS who have records in the German-Austrian and the MD Anderson Cancer Center databases were included and analyzed in univariate and multivariate models regarding overall survival and risk of transformation to acute myeloid leukemia (AML). The data were analyzed separately for patients treated with supportive care without specific therapy, with AML-like chemotherapy, or with other therapy regimens (low-dose chemotherapy, demethylating agents, immune modulating agents, valproic acid, and cyclosporine). Results The prognostic impact of poor-risk cytogenetic findings (as defined by the IPSS classification) on overall survival was as unfavorable as an increased (> 20%) blast count. The hazard ratio (compared with an abnormal karyotype or a bone marrow blast count < 5%) was 3.3 for poor-risk cytogenetics, 4.8 for complex abnormalities harboring chromosomes 5 and/or 7, and 3.1 for a blast count of 21% to 30% (P < .01 for all categories). The predictive power of the IPSS cytogenetic subgroups was unaffected by type of therapy given. Conclusion The independent prognostic impact of poor-risk cytogenetics on overall survival is equivalent to the impact of high blast counts. This finding should be considered in the upcoming revision of the IPSS. PMID:21519021

  12. A clinical prognostic scoring system for resectable gastric cancer to predict survival and benefit from paclitaxel- or oxaliplatin-based adjuvant chemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Qian, Jing; Qian, Yingying; Wang, Jian; Gu, Bing; Pei, Dong; He, Shaohua; Zhu, Fang; Røe, Oluf Dimitri; Xu, Jin; Liu, Lianke; Gu, Yanhong; Guo, Renhua; Yin, Yongmei; Shu, Yongqian; Chen, Xiaofeng

    2016-01-01

    Background Gastrectomy with D2 lymphadenectomy is a standard procedure of curative resection for gastric cancer (GC). The aim of this study was to develop a simple and reliable prognostic scoring system for GC treated with D2 gastrectomy combined with adjuvant chemotherapy. Methods A prognostic scoring system was established based on clinical and laboratory data from 579 patients with localized GC without distant metastasis treated with D2 gastrectomy and adjuvant chemotherapy. Results From the multivariate model for overall survival (OS), five factors were selected for the scoring system: ≥50% metastatic lymph node rate, positive lymphovascular invasion, pathologic TNM Stage II or III, ≥5 ng/mL preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen level, and <110 g/L preoperative hemoglobin. Two models were derived using different methods. Model A identified low- and high-risk patients for OS (P<0.001), while Model B differentiated low-, intermediate-, and high-risk patients for OS (P<0.001). Stage III patients in the low-risk group had higher survival probabilities than Stage II patients. Both Model A (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.74, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.69–0.78) and Model B (AUC: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.72–0.83) were better predictors compared with the pathologic TNM classification (AUC: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.59–0.71, P<0.001). Adjuvant paclitaxel- or oxaliplatin-based or triple chemotherapy showed significantly better outcomes in patients classified as high risk, but not in those with low and intermediate risk. Conclusion A clinical three-tier prognostic risk scoring system was established to predict OS of GC treated with D2 gastrectomy and adjuvant chemotherapy. The potential advantage of this scoring system is that it can identify high-risk patients in Stage II or III who may benefit from paclitaxel- or oxaliplatin-based regimens. Prospective studies are needed to confirm these results before they are applied clinically. PMID:26966350

  13. Incremental prognostic value of the SYNTAX score to late gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance images for patients with stable coronary artery disease.

    PubMed

    Kato, Shingo; Saito, Naka; Kirigaya, Hidekuni; Gyotoku, Daiki; Iinuma, Naoki; Kusakawa, Yuka; Iguchi, Kohei; Nakachi, Tatsuya; Fukui, Kazuki; Futaki, Masaaki; Iwasawa, Tae; Taguri, Masataka; Kimura, Kazuo; Umemura, Satoshi

    2016-06-01

    The prognostic significance of the SYNTAX (Synergy between PCI with Taxus and cardiac surgery) score has recently been demonstrated in patients with stable multivessel or left main coronary artery disease (CAD). The present study determines whether adding the SYNTAX score to Framingham risk score (FRS), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and presence of myocardial infarction (MI) by late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) magnetic resonance imaging can improve the risk stratification in patients with stable CAD. We calculated the SYNTAX score in 161 patients with stable CAD (mean age: 66 ± 10 years old). During a mean follow-up of 2.3 years, 56 (35 %) of 161 patients developed cardiovascular events defined as cardiovascular death, non-fatal MI, cerebral infarction, unstable angina pectoris, hospitalization due to heart failure and revascularization. Multivariate Cox regression analysis selected triglycerides [hazard ratio (HR): 1.005 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.001-1.008), p < 0.008], presence of LGE [HR: 6.329 (95 % CI: 2.662-15.05), p < 0.001] and the SYNTAX score [HR: 1.085 (95 % CI: 1.044-1.127), p < 0.001] as risk factors for future cardiovascular events. Adding the SYNTAX score to FRS, EF and LGE significantly improved the net reclassification index (NRI) [40.4 % (95 % CI: 18.1-54.8 %), p < 0.05] with an increase in C-statistics of 0.089 (from 0.707 to 0.796). An increase in C-statistics and significant improvement of NRI showed that adding the SYNTAX score to the FRS, LVEF and LGE incrementally improved risk stratification in patient with stable CAD.

  14. Evidence-based improvement of the National Trauma Triage Protocol: The Glasgow Coma Scale versus Glasgow Coma Scale motor subscale

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Joshua B.; Forsythe, Raquel M.; Stassen, Nicole A.; Peitzman, Andrew B.; Billiar, Timothy R.; Sperry, Jason L.; Gestring, Mark L.

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND Ideal triage uses simple criteria to identify severely injured patients. Glasgow Coma Scale motor (GCSm) may be easier for field use and was considered for the National Trauma Triage Protocol (NTTP). This study evaluated performance of the NTTP if GCSm is substituted for the current GCS score ≤ 13 criterion. METHODS Subjects in the National Trauma Data Bank undergoing scene transport were included. Presence of NTTP physiologic (Step 1) and anatomic (Step 2) criteria was determined. GCSm score ≤ 5 was defined as a positive criterion. Trauma center need (TCN) was defined as Injury Severity Score (ISS) > 15, intensive care unit admission, urgent operation, or emergency department death. Test characteristics were calculated to predict TCN. Area under the curve was compared between GCSm and GCS scores, individually and within the NTTP. Logistic regression was used to determine the association of GCSm score ≤ 5 and GCS score ≤ 13 with TCN after adjusting for other triage criteria. Predicted versus actual TCN was compared. RESULTS There were 811,143 subjects. Sensitivity was lower (26.7% vs. 30.3%), specificity was higher (95.1% vs. 93.1%), and accuracy was similar (66.1% vs. 66.3%) for GCSm score ≤ 5 compared with GCS score ≤ 13. Incorporated into the NTTP Steps 1 + 2, GCSm score ≤ 5 traded sensitivity (60.4% vs. 62.1%) for specificity (67.1% vs. 65.7%) with similar accuracy (64.2% vs. 64.2%) to GCS score ≤ 13. There was no difference in the area under the curve between GCSm score ≤ 5 and GCS score ≤ 13 when incorporated into the NTTP Steps 1 + 2 (p = 0.10). GCSm score ≤ 5 had a stronger association with TCN (odds ratio, 3.37; 95% confidence interval, 3.27–3.48; p < 0.01) than GCS score ≤ 13 (odds ratio, 3.03; 95% confidence interval, 2.94–3.13; p < 0.01). GCSm had a better fit of predicted versus actual TCN than GCS at the lower end of the scales. CONCLUSION GCSm score ≤ 5 increases specificity at the expense of sensitivity

  15. Usefulness of Cardiac MetaIodobenzylguanidine Imaging to Improve Prognostic Power of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Scoring System in Patients With Mild-to-Moderate Chronic Heart Failure.

    PubMed

    Hakui, Hideyuki; Yamada, Takahisa; Tamaki, Shunsuke; Morita, Takashi; Furukawa, Yoshio; Iwasaki, Yusuke; Kawasaki, Masato; Kikuchi, Atsushi; Kondo, Takumi; Ishimi, Masashi; Sato, Yoshihiro; Seo, Masahiro; Ozaki, Tatsuhisa; Ikeda, Iyo; Fukuhara, Eiji; Sakata, Yasushi; Fukunami, Masatake

    2016-06-15

    Liver dysfunction has a prognostic impact on the outcomes of patients with advanced heart failure (HF). The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is a robust system for rating liver dysfunction, and a high score has been shown to be associated with a poor prognosis in ambulatory patients with HF. In addition, cardiac metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) imaging provides prognostic information in patients with chronic HF (CHF). However, the long-term predictive value of combining the MELD score and cardiac MIBG imaging in patients with CHF has not been elucidated. To prospectively investigate whether cardiac MIBG imaging provides additional prognostic value to the MELD score in patients with mild-to-moderate CHF, we studied 109 CHF outpatients (New York Heart Association: 2.0 ± 0.6) with left ventricular ejection fraction <40%. At enrollment, an MELD score was obtained, and the heart-to-mediastinal ratio on delayed imaging and MIBG washout rate (WR) were measured using cardiac MIBG scintigraphy. During a follow-up period of 7.5 ± 4.2 years, 36 of 109 patients experienced cardiac death (CD). On multivariate Cox analysis, MELD score and WR were significantly independently associated with CD, although heart-to-mediastinal ratio showed an association with CD only on univariate Cox analysis. Patients with abnormal WR (>27%) had a significantly greater risk of CD than those with normal WR in both those with high MELD scores (≥10; hazard ratio 4.0 [1.2 to 13.6]) and with low MELD scores (<10; hazard ratio 6.4 [1.7 to 23.2]). In conclusion, cardiac MIBG imaging would provide additional prognostic information to the MELD score in patients with mild-to-moderate CHF. PMID:27237625

  16. Prognostic value of ICU-acquired hypernatremia in patients with neurological dysfunction.

    PubMed

    Hu, Bei; Han, Qianpeng; Mengke, Nashun; He, Kairan; Zhang, Yiqin; Nie, Zhiqiang; Zeng, Hongke

    2016-08-01

    Many studies have indicated that hypernatremia is associated with increased mortality. In this study, we aimed to explore the relationship between intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired hypernatremia and the prognosis of critically neurological patients.Based on serum sodium level in the ICU, 450 patients were divided into 3 groups: 222 had normal serum sodium, 142 had mild hypernatremia, and 86 had severe hypernatremia. Kaplan-Meier and multivariable binary logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the prognostic value of hypernatremia in critically neurological patients. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed for serum sodium levels to determine their roles in predicting ICU mortality.Hypernatremia was significantly related with age, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, serum sodium, APACHE II score, and serum creatinine. Moreover, the different treatment outcome including mechanical ventilation, the days of stayed in ICU, and Glasgow Outcome Scale score had correlation with serum sodium levels. Old ages, GCS score, therapeutic intervention scoring system (TISS) score, APACHE II score, serum sodium peak, and so on were all associated with the mortality. In addition, hypernatremia was an independent prognostic factor for critically neurological patients by logistic regression analysis (odds ratio = 1.192, 95% confidence interval = 1.135-1.252, P = 0.000). Moreover, we got the sensitivity of 79.4% and specificity of 74.5% in the ROC analysis between peak serum sodium and the mortality. The area under the ROC curve was 0.844, and the optimal cutoff value was 147.55.Our results showed that ICU-acquired hypernatremia may be a potential prognosis marker for critically neurological patients. PMID:27583842

  17. Prognostic value of ICU-acquired hypernatremia in patients with neurological dysfunction

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Bei; Han, Qianpeng; Mengke, Nashun; He, Kairan; Zhang, Yiqin; Nie, Zhiqiang; Zeng, Hongke

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Many studies have indicated that hypernatremia is associated with increased mortality. In this study, we aimed to explore the relationship between intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired hypernatremia and the prognosis of critically neurological patients. Based on serum sodium level in the ICU, 450 patients were divided into 3 groups: 222 had normal serum sodium, 142 had mild hypernatremia, and 86 had severe hypernatremia. Kaplan–Meier and multivariable binary logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the prognostic value of hypernatremia in critically neurological patients. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed for serum sodium levels to determine their roles in predicting ICU mortality. Hypernatremia was significantly related with age, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, serum sodium, APACHE II score, and serum creatinine. Moreover, the different treatment outcome including mechanical ventilation, the days of stayed in ICU, and Glasgow Outcome Scale score had correlation with serum sodium levels. Old ages, GCS score, therapeutic intervention scoring system (TISS) score, APACHE II score, serum sodium peak, and so on were all associated with the mortality. In addition, hypernatremia was an independent prognostic factor for critically neurological patients by logistic regression analysis (odds ratio = 1.192, 95% confidence interval = 1.135–1.252, P = 0.000). Moreover, we got the sensitivity of 79.4% and specificity of 74.5% in the ROC analysis between peak serum sodium and the mortality. The area under the ROC curve was 0.844, and the optimal cutoff value was 147.55. Our results showed that ICU-acquired hypernatremia may be a potential prognosis marker for critically neurological patients. PMID:27583842

  18. [The use of scores in general medicine].

    PubMed

    Huber, Ursula; Rösli, Andreas; Ballmer, Peter E; Rippin, Sarah Jane

    2013-10-01

    Scores are tools to combine complex information into a numerical value. In General Medicine, there are scores to assist in making diagnoses and prognoses, scores to assist therapeutic decision making and to evaluate therapeutic results and scores to help physicians when informing and advising patients. We review six of the scoring systems that have the greatest utility for the General Physician in hospital-based care and in General Practice. The Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS 2002) tool is designed to identify hospital patients in danger of malnutrition. The aim is to improve the nutritional status of these patients. The CURB-65 score predicts 30-day mortality in patients with community acquired pneumonia. Patients with a low score can be considered for home treatment, patients with an elevated score require hospitalisation and those with a high score should be treated as having severe pneumonia; treatment in the intensive care unit should be considered. The IAS-AGLA score of the Working Group on Lipids and Atherosclerosis of the Swiss Society of Cardiology calculates the 10-year risk of a myocardial infarction for people living in Switzerland. The working group makes recommendations for preventative treatment according to the calculated risk status. The Body Mass Index, which is calculated by dividing the body weight in kilograms by the height in meters squared and then divided into weight categories, is used to classify people as underweight, of normal weight, overweight or obese. The prognostic value of this classification is discussed. The Mini-Mental State Examination allows the physician to assess important cognitive functions in a simple and standardised form. The Glasgow Coma Scale is used to classify the level of consciousness in patients with head injury. It can be used for triage and correlates with prognosis.

  19. Prognostic Value of Elevated Homocysteine Levels in Korean Patients with Coronary Artery Disease: A Propensity Score Matched Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Kwon, Sung Woo; Kim, Jong-Youn; Suh, Young Ju; Lee, Dae Hyung; Yoon, Young Won; Lee, Byoung Kwon; Jung, Young-Hak; Choi, Eui-Young; Hong, Bum-Kee; Rim, Se-Joong

    2016-01-01

    Background and Objectives We sought to determine whether an elevated homocysteine (Hcy) level is associated with a worse prognosis in Korean patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). Subjects and Methods A total of 5839 patients (60.4% male, mean age 61.3±11.2 years) with CAD were enrolled from 2000 to 2010 at Gangnam Severance Hospital. CAD was diagnosed by invasive coronary angiography. Laboratory values including Hcy level were obtained on the day of coronary angiography and analyses were performed shortly after sampling. Patients were divided into two groups according to their Hcy levels. Baseline risk factors, coronary angiographic findings, length of follow-up, and composite endpoints including cardiac death (CD) and non-fatal myocardial infarction (NFMI) were recorded. 1:1 propensity score matched analysis was also performed. Results Over a mean follow-up period of 4.4±2.5 years, there were 132 composite endpoints (75 CD and 57 NFMI) with an event rate of 2.3%. Mean Hcy level was 9.9±4.3 µmol/L (normal Hcy 7.9±1.5 µmol/L and elevated Hcy 13.9±5.1 µmol/L). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed an association of elevated Hcy level with worse prognosis (p<0.0001). In addition, a multivariate Cox regression analysis showed an association of elevated Hcy level with worse prognosis for both the entire cohort (hazard ratio [HR] 2.077, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.467-2.941, p<0.0001) and the propensity score matched cohort (HR 1.982, 95% CI 1.305-3.009, p=0.001). Conclusion Elevated Hcy level is associated with worse outcomes in Korean patients with CAD. PMID:27014345

  20. Prospective independent validation of IMPACT modeling as a prognostic tool in severe traumatic brain injury.

    PubMed

    Panczykowski, David M; Puccio, Ava M; Scruggs, Bobby J; Bauer, Joshua S; Hricik, Allison J; Beers, Sue R; Okonkwo, David O

    2012-01-01

    Clinical trials in traumatic brain injury (TBI) have been fraught with failure due in part to heterogeneity in pathology and insensitive outcome measurements. The International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in TBI (IMPACT) prognostic model has been purposed as a means of risk adjustment and outcome prediction for use in trial design and analysis. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of the IMPACT model in predicting 6-month functional outcome and mortality using prospectively collected data at a large, Level 1 neurotrauma center. This population-based cohort study included all TBI patients ≥14 years of age admitted with a Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score of ≤8 (severe TBI) to the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center between July 1994 and May 2009. Clinical data were prospectively collected and linked to 6-month functional outcome (Glasgow Outcome Scale [GOS]) and mortality. The discriminatory power and calibration of the three iterations of the IMPACT model (core, extended, and lab) were assessed using multiple regression analyses and indicated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). A sample of 587 patients was available for analysis; the mean age was 37.8±17 years. The median 6-month GOS was 3 (IQR 3); 6-month mortality was 41%. The prognostic models were composed of age, motor score, and pupillary reactivity (core model), Marshall grade on head CT and secondary insults (extended), and laboratory values (lab); all of these displayed good prediction ability for unfavorable outcome and mortality (unfavorable outcome AUC=0.76, 0.79, 0.76; mortality AUC=0.78, 0.83, 0.83, respectively). All model iterations displayed adequate calibration for predicting unfavorable outcome and mortality. Prospective, independent validation supports the IMPACT prognostic model's prediction of patient 6-month functional status and mortality after severe TBI. The IMPACT prognostic model is an effective

  1. Tyrosine kinase inhibitor usage, treatment outcome, and prognostic scores in CML: report from the population-based Swedish CML registry

    PubMed Central

    Sandin, Fredrik; Hellström, Karin; Björeman, Mats; Björkholm, Magnus; Brune, Mats; Dreimane, Arta; Ekblom, Marja; Lehmann, Sören; Ljungman, Per; Malm, Claes; Markevärn, Berit; Myhr-Eriksson, Kristina; Ohm, Lotta; Olsson-Strömberg, Ulla; Själander, Anders; Wadenvik, Hans; Simonsson, Bengt; Stenke, Leif; Richter, Johan

    2013-01-01

    Clinical management guidelines on malignant disorders are generally based on data from clinical trials with selected patient cohorts. In Sweden, more than 95% of all patients diagnosed with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) are reported to the national CML registry, providing unique possibilities to compile population-based information. This report is based on registry data from 2002 to 2010, when a total of 779 patients (425 men, 354 women; median age, 60 years) were diagnosed with CML (93% chronic, 5% accelerated, and 2% blastic phase) corresponding to an annual incidence of 0.9/100 000. In 2002, approximately half of the patients received a tyrosine kinase inhibitor as initial therapy, a proportion that increased to 94% for younger (<70 years) and 79% for older (>80 years) patients during 2007-2009. With a median follow-up of 61 months, the relative survival at 5 years was close to 1.0 for patients younger than 60 years and 0.9 for those aged 60 to 80 years, but only 0.6 for those older than 80 years. At 12 months, 3% had progressed to accelerated or blastic phase. Sokal, but not European Treatment and Outcome Study, high-risk scores were significantly linked to inferior overall and relative survival. Patients living in university vs nonuniversity catchment areas more often received tyrosine kinase inhibitors up front but showed comparable survival. PMID:23843494

  2. Prognostic Value of Major Cardiac Event Risk Score Estimated With Gated Myocardial Perfusion Imaging in Japanese Patients With Coronary Artery Disease.

    PubMed

    Yoda, Shunichi; Nakanishi, Kanae; Tano, Ayako; Hori, Yusuke; Hayase, Misa; Mineki, Takashi; Suzuki, Yasuyuki; Matsumoto, Naoya; Hirayama, Atsushi

    2016-07-27

    We published a cardiac event risk score (CERS) predicting the risk of major cardiac events (MCEs) within 3 years. The purpose of this study was to verify the prognostic value of the CERS before and after treatment in Japanese patients with coronary artery disease.We retrospectively investigated 612 patients who underwent rest (201)Tl and stress (99m)Tc-tetrofosmin myocardial perfusion single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) between October 2004 and March 2013 and who had a significant stenosis with ≥ 75% narrowing of the arterial diameter detected by coronary angiography performed after confirmation of ≥ 5% ischemia with the SPECT. The patients underwent treatment including revascularization and medication, and thereafter, were re-evaluated with SPECT during a chronic phase and followed-up to confirm prognosis for ≥ 1 year. The endpoint was the onset of MCEs during the follow-up.During the follow-up (36.7 ± 14.5 months), 50 patients (8.7%) experienced MCEs comprising cardiac death (n = 16), non-fatal myocardial infarction (n = 4), and unstable angina pectoris (n = 30). The multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model analysis for the actual occurrence of MCEs showed the summed difference score % and MCE risks estimated with the CERS after treatment to be significant independent variables. Ischemic reduction after treatment contributed significantly to a decrease in the MCE risks. The MCE risks estimated with the CERS after treatment were generally consistent with the incidence of the MCEs actually observed.The CERS after treatment is a valuable formula for predicting prognosis in Japanese patients with coronary artery disease. PMID:27357436

  3. 78 FR 67024 - Establishment of Class E Airspace; Glasgow, MT

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-11-08

    ... Federal Aviation Administration 14 CFR Parts 71 Establishment of Class E Airspace; Glasgow, MT AGENCY... a final rule published in the Federal Register of September 30, 2013, that establishes Class E... aid, Glasgow, MT. A favorable comment from the National Business Aviation Association (NBAA)...

  4. Predicting outcomes in organophosphate poisoning based on APACHE II and modified APACHE II scores.

    PubMed

    Eizadi-Mood, N; Saghaei, M; Jabalameli, M

    2007-07-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the scores of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and a modified APACHE II system (MAS), without parameters of biochemical tests; and to find prognostic value of individual elements of the APACHE II and MAS in predicting outcomes in organophosphate (OP) poisoning. Data were collected from 131 patients. The median (25th-75th percentiles) of APACHE II score for survivors without intubation were found to be lower than those of non survivors or survivors with intubation and ventilation, [4 (1-7); versus 17.5 (7.8-29), and 13.5 (7.8-16.3)]. Logistic regression analysis identified white blood cell (WBC), potassium, Glasgow coma scale (GCS), age and sodium in APACHE II; GCS and mean arterial pressure in MAS system as prognostically valuable. There was no statistically significance difference between APACHE II and MAS scores in terms of area under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve [(0.902, 95% confidence interval: (0.837-0.947) for APACHE II), and (0.892, 95% confidence interval: (0.826-0.940) for MAS); P=0.74) to predict need for intubation. It is concluded usage of MAS facilitates the prognostication of the OP poisoned patients due to simplicity, less time-consuming and effectiveness in an emergency situation.

  5. Body mass index, airflow obstruction and dyspnea and body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnea scores, age and pack years-predictive properties of new multidimensional prognostic indices of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in primary care

    PubMed Central

    Ansari, Khalid; Keaney, Niall; Kay, Andrea; Price, Monica; Munby, Joan; Billett, Andrew; Haggerty, Sharon; Taylor, Ian K.; Al Otaibi, Hajed

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The assessment of the severity of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) should involve a multidimensional approach that is now clearly shown to be better than using spirometric impairment alone. The aim of this study is to validate and compare novel tools without an exercise test and to extend prognostic value to patients with less severe impairment of Forced expiratory volume 1 s. METHODS: A prospective, observational, primary care cohort study identified 458 eligible patients recruited from the primary care clinics in the northeast of England in 1999–2002. A new prognostic indicator – body mass index, airflow obstruction and dyspnea (BOD) together with the conventional prognostic indices age, dyspnea and airflow obstruction (ADO), global initiative for chronic obstructive lung disease (GOLD) and new GOLD matrix were studied. We also sought to improve prognostication of BOD by adding age (A) and smoking history as pack years (S) to validate BODS (BOD with smoking history) and BODAS (BOD with smoking history and age) as prognostic tools and the predictive power of each was analyzed. RESULTS: The survival of the 458 patients was assessed after a median of 10 years when the mortality was found to be 33.6%. The novel indices BOD, BODS, and BODAS were significantly predictive for all-cause mortality in our cohort. Furthermore with ROC analysis the C statistics for BOD, BODS, and BODAS were 0.62, 0.66, and 0.72, respectively (P < 0.001 for each), whereas ADO and GOLD stages had a C statistic of 0.70 (P < 0.001) and 0.56 (P < 0.02), respectively. GOLD Matrix was not significant in this cohort. CONCLUSION: BOD, BODS, and BODAS scores are validated predictors of all-cause mortality in a primary care cohort with COPD. PMID:27803752

  6. A novel prognostic score model incorporating CDGSH iron sulfur domain2 (CISD2) predicts risk of disease progression in laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    He, Zhenyu; Liang, Shaobo; Chen, Haiyang; He, Shasha; Wu, Shu; Song, Libing; Chen, Yong

    2016-01-01

    Background The role of CDGSH iron sulfur domain 2 (CISD2) in laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) remains unclear. Results CISD2 were up-regulated in LSCC tissues compared with adjacent noncancerous tissues both at mRNA and protein levels. CISD2 was significantly correlated with T stage, lymph node metastasis, clinical stage and disease progression. A prognostic model (C-N model) for PFS was subsequently constructed based on independent prognostic factors including CISD2 and N classification. This model significantly divided LSCC patients into three risk subgroups and was more accurate than the prediction efficacy of TNM classification in the training cohort (C-index, 0.710 vs 0.602, P = 0.027) and validation cohort (C-index, 0.719 vs 0.578, P = 0.014). Methods Real-time PCR and Western blotting were employed to examine the expression of CISD2 in eight fresh paired LSCC samples. Immunohistochemistry was performed to assess CISD2 expression in 490 paraffin-embedded archived LSCC samples. A prognostic model for progression-free survival (PFS) was built using independent factors. The concordance index (C-Index) was used to evaluate the prognostic ability of the model. Conclusions CISD2 was up-regulated in LSCC. The novel C-N model, which includes CISD2 levels and N classification, is more accurate than conventional TNM classification for predicting PFS in LSCC. PMID:27007153

  7. Prognostic evaluation by clinical exercise test scores in patients treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention or fibrinolysis for acute myocardial infarction (a Danish Trial in Acute Myocardial Infarction-2 Sub-Study).

    PubMed

    Valeur, Nana; Clemmensen, Peter; Grande, Peer; Saunamäki, Kari

    2007-10-01

    The prognostic accuracy of exercise testing after myocardial infarction is low, and different models have been proposed to enhance the predictive value for subsequent mortality. This study tested a simple score against 3 established scores. Patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarctions were randomized in the Danish Trial in Acute Myocardial Infarction-2 (DANAMI-2) to either primary percutaneous coronary intervention or fibrinolysis with predischarge exercise testing. Clinical and exercise test data were collected prospectively and were available for 1,115 patients. A simple score was derived, awarding 1 point for history or new signs of heart failure, 1 point for a left ventricular ejection fraction <40%, 1 point for age >65 years in men and age >70 years in women, and 1 point for exercise capacity <5 METs in men and exercise capacity <4 METs in women. This DANAMI score was compared with the Veterans Affairs Medical Center score, the Duke treadmill score, and the Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio Della Sopravvivenza nell'Infarto Miocardico-2 (GISSI-2) score in multivariate Cox models and receiver-operating characteristic plots. All scoring systems were predictive of adverse outcomes. The DANAMI score performed better, with greater chi-square values (142 vs 53 to 88 for the prediction of death). Areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves were compared and were larger for the DANAMI score (C-statistic 0.79 vs 0.71 to 0.74 for the other tests regarding mortality). The DANAMI score stratified patients into a small high-risk group (8% of the population with 43% mortality in 6 years), an intermediate-risk group (13% with 16% mortality in 6 years), and a low-risk group (79% with 4% mortality in 6 years). In conclusion, a simple exercise test score composed of age, METs, heart failure, and a left ventricular ejection fraction <40% seems to outperform the Duke treadmill score, Veterans Affairs Medical Center score, and GISSI-2 score in risk stratifying

  8. The Glasgow Coma Scale and prognosis in gunshot wounds to the brain.

    PubMed

    Kennedy, F; Gonzalez, P; Dang, C; Fleming, A; Sterling-Scott, R

    1993-07-01

    To determine which factors predict survival in patients with gunshot wounds to the brain, 192 patients who had intracranial injury demonstrated on computed tomographic (CT) scanning were retrospectively reviewed. Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores on admission seemed to be the most important factor in predicting survival. Age, the presence of extruded brain, and use of a shotgun could not be shown to be factors independent of admission GCS score. Findings on CT scans (single lobe vs. multilobe involvement) helped to predict survival only in patients with GCS scores 5-13. The mortality rate was 35%. Among survivors 18% had brain-related long-term disability, and an additional 27% had long-term disability related to associated eye injury.

  9. The Physical Tourist Physics in Glasgow: A Heritage Tour

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnston, Sean F.

    2006-12-01

    I trace the history of the physical and applied sciences, and particularly physics, in Glasgow. Among the notable individuals I discuss are Joseph Black (1728 1799), James Watt (1736 1819), William John Macquorn Rankine (1820 1872), William Thomson, Lord Kelvin (1824 1907), John Kerr (1824 1907), Frederick Soddy (1877 1956), John Logie Baird (1888 1946), and Ian Donald (1910 1987), as well as physics-related businesses.The locations, centering on the city center and University of Glasgow, include sites both recognizable today and transformed from past usage, as well as museums and archives related to the history and interpretation of physics.

  10. The food retail environment and area deprivation in Glasgow City, UK

    PubMed Central

    Macdonald, Laura; Ellaway, Anne; Macintyre, Sally

    2009-01-01

    It has previously been suggested that deprived neighbourhoods within modern cities have poor access to general amenities, for example, fewer food retail outlets. Here we examine the distribution of food retailers by deprivation in the City of Glasgow, UK. We obtained a list of 934 food retailers in Glasgow, UK, in 2007, and mapped these at address level. We categorised small areas (data zones) into quintiles of area deprivation using the 2006 Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation Income sub-domain score. We computed mean number of retailers per 1000 residents per data zone, and mean network distance to nearest outlet from data zone centroid, for all retailers combined and for each of seven categories of retailer separately (i.e. bakers, butchers, fruit and vegetable sellers, fishmongers, convenience stores, supermarkets and delicatessens). The most deprived quintile (of areas) had the greatest mean number of total food retailers per 1000 residents while quintile 1 (least deprived) had the least, and this difference was statistically significant (Chi-square p < 0.01). The closest mean distance to the nearest food retailer was within quintile 3 while the furthest distance was within quintile 1, and this was also statistically significant (Chi-square p < 0.01). There was variation in the distribution of the seven different types of food retailers, and access to amenities depended upon the type of food retailer studied and whether proximity or density was measured. Overall the findings suggested that deprived neighbourhoods within the City of Glasgow did not necessarily have fewer food retail outlets. PMID:19660114

  11. Jewish Education and Formation in Glasgow: A Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McKinney, Stephen J.

    2004-01-01

    This article explores the formational provision within a faith community when faith schooling ends at the primary stage. A case study, part of a larger multi-faith study, examined the Jewish community in the greater Glasgow area--a small, and shrinking, community with a long history of relatively peaceful integration but increasingly pressurised…

  12. 78 FR 59807 - Establishment of Class E Airspace; Glasgow, MT

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-09-30

    ... Salt Lake City, and Minneapolis Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCCs). This improves the safety... proposed rulemaking (NPRM) to establish controlled airspace at Glasgow, MT (78 FR 41337). Interested... control of Salt Lake City, and Minneapolis ARTCCs by vectoring aircraft from en route airspace to...

  13. Territorialities in Scotland: Perceptions of Young People in Glasgow

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Holligan, Christopher Peter; Deuchar, Ross

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents the results of an exploratory, small-scale qualitative research enquiry into the perceptions and experiences of young people in communities afflicted by deprivation in Glasgow, Scotland's largest city. The context within which we address this focus contains a culture reputed to involve sectarianism, territoriality and gangs.…

  14. 76 FR 45179 - Modification of Class E Airspace; Glasgow, MT

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-07-28

    ... proposed rulemaking to amend Class E controlled airspace at Glasgow, MT (76 FR 30300). Interested parties...), 40103, 40113, 40120; E.O. 10854, 24 FR 9565, 3 CFR, 1959-1963 Comp., p. 389. Sec. 71.1 0 2. The...) is not a ``significant rule'' under DOT Regulatory Policies and Procedures (44 FR 11034; February...

  15. Exploration and Validation of C-Reactive Protein/Albumin Ratio as a Novel Inflammation-Based Prognostic Marker in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yuan; Zhou, Guan-Qun; Liu, Xu; Chen, Lei; Li, Wen-Fei; Tang, Ling-Long; Liu, Qing; Sun, Ying; Ma, Jun

    2016-01-01

    Background: The prognostic value of C-reactive protein/albumin ratio (CRP/Alb), a novel inflammation-based marker, remains unknown in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Methods: We conducted a retrospective review of 1572 consecutive patients with non-metastatic NPC. Patients were randomly divided into a training set (n = 514) and validation set (n = 1058). The prognostic value of the CRP/Alb ratio and the modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS; a well-recognized inflammation-based score) was assessed. Results: Receiver-operating characteristic analysis identified 0.05 as the optimal CRP/Alb cut-off value for disease failure in the training set. Patients with a CRP/Alb > 0.05 had poorer overall survival (OS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in the training set (all P < 0.05). These results were confirmed in the validation set (all P < 0.05) and the whole cohort (all P < 0.001). In multivariate analysis of the entire cohort, the pretreatment CRP/Alb ratio was an independent prognostic factor for OS (HR, 1.394; 95% CI, 1.004-1.937; P = 0.048) and DMFS (HR, 1.545; 95% CI, 1.124-2.122; P = 0.007), but not for DFS (P = 0.083). The mGPS had no significant independent prognostic value for any end-point. Conclusion: CRP/Alb ratio is an useful prognostic indicator in patients with NPC, independent of disease stage. PMID:27471556

  16. Modified Glasgow Coma Scale to predict mortality in febrile unconscious children.

    PubMed

    Chaturvedi, P; Kishore, M

    2001-04-01

    A prospective hospital based study was conducted in the Department of Pediatrics of the Kasturba Hospital, Mahatma Gandhi Institute of Medical Sciences, Sevagram, Wardha to predict the mortality in children admitted with fever and unconsciousness using the Modified Glasgow Coma Scale (MGCS) score. Forty eight children were admitted with fever and unconsciousness; cases of febrile convulsions, epilepsy and cerebral palsy were excluded. MGCS scores were assessed on admission and repeated at 12 hours, 24 hours, 48 hours and 72 hours after admission in each case. Diagnosis in each case was confirmed by history, examinations and investigations. All the cases were regularly followed up till death/discharge. The overall mortality was 29.1% (14/48) out of which 85% (12/14) died within the first 24 hours. Mortality was highest in the toddler age group and in patients with pyogenic meningitis. There was a significant association between death and MGCS scores on admission with a post test probability for discharge being only 10% with a score of less than 5 and 99% with a score of more than 10 respectively. MGCS scores on admission can be used to predict mortality in patients hospitalized with fever and unconsciousness. The scale is simple, easy, can be applied at bed side and does not need any investigations. Its application in developing countries with limited investigative and intensive care facilities can help the treating physician decide regarding referral and counseling the parents regarding the probable clinical outcome.

  17. Prognostic Factors of Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Spontaneous Thalamic Hemorrhage

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Sang-Hoon; Park, Kyung-Jae; Kang, Shin-Hyuk; Jung, Yong-Gu; Park, Jung-Yul; Park, Dong-Hyuk

    2015-01-01

    Background Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is a well-known condition, but ICH restricted to the thalamus is less widely studied. We investigated the prognostic factors of thalamic ICHs. Material/Methods Seventy patients from January 2009 to November 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. Patients who demonstrated spontaneous ICH primarily affecting the thalamus on initial brain computed tomography (CT) were enrolled. Patients were categorized into 2 groups based on their Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) scores. Various presumptive prognostic factors were analyzed to investigate relationships between various clinical characteristics and outcomes. Results Of the enrolled patients, 39 showed a GOS of 4–5, and were categorized as the good outcome group, while another 31 patients showed a GOS of 1–3 and were categorized as the poor outcome group. Initial GCS score, calculated volume of hematoma, presence of intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH), coexisting complications, hydrocephalus, performance of external ventricular drainage, and modified Graeb’s scores of patients with IVH were significantly different between the 2 groups. In multivariate analysis, among the factors above, initial GCS score (P=0.002, Odds ratio [OR]=1.761, Confidence interval [CI]=1.223–2.536) and the existence of systemic complications (P=0.015, OR=0.059, CI=0.006–0.573) were independently associated with clinical outcomes. Calculated hematoma volume showed a borderline relationship with outcomes (P=0.079, OR=0.920, CI=0.839–1.010). Conclusions Initial GCS score and the existence of systemic complications were strong predictive factors for prognosis of thalamic ICH. Calculated hematoma volume also had predictive value for clinical outcomes. PMID:26343784

  18. Prognostic ability of EndoPredict compared to research-based versions of the PAM50 risk of recurrence (ROR) scores in node-positive, estrogen receptor-positive, and HER2-negative breast cancer. A GEICAM/9906 sub-study.

    PubMed

    Martin, Miguel; Brase, Jan C; Ruiz, Amparo; Prat, Aleix; Kronenwett, Ralf; Calvo, Lourdes; Petry, Christoph; Bernard, Philip S; Ruiz-Borrego, Manuel; Weber, Karsten E; Rodriguez, César A; Alvarez, Isabel M; Segui, Miguel A; Perou, Charles M; Casas, Maribel; Carrasco, Eva; Caballero, Rosalía; Rodriguez-Lescure, Alvaro

    2016-02-01

    There are several prognostic multigene-based tests for managing breast cancer (BC), but limited data comparing them in the same cohort. We compared the prognostic performance of the EndoPredict (EP) test (standardized for pathology laboratory) with the research-based PAM50 non-standardized qRT-PCR assay in node-positive estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) and HER2-negative (HER2-) BC patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy followed by endocrine therapy (ET) in the GEICAM/9906 trial. EP and PAM50 risk of recurrence (ROR) scores [based on subtype (ROR-S) and on subtype and proliferation (ROR-P)] were compared in 536 ER+/HER2- patients. Scores combined with clinical information were evaluated: ROR-T (ROR-S, tumor size), ROR-PT (ROR-P, tumor size), and EPclin (EP, tumor size, nodal status). Patients were assigned to risk-categories according to prespecified cutoffs. Distant metastasis-free survival (MFS) was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier. ROR-S, ROR-P, and EP scores identified a low-risk group with a relative better outcome (10-year MFS: ROR-S 87 %; ROR-P 89 %; EP 93 %). There was no significant difference between tests. Predictors including clinical information showed superior prognostic performance compared to molecular scores alone (10-year MFS, low-risk group: ROR-T 88 %; ROR-PT 92 %; EPclin 100 %). The EPclin-based risk stratification achieved a significantly improved prediction of MFS compared to ROR-T, but not ROR-PT. All signatures added prognostic information to common clinical parameters. EPclin provided independent prognostic information beyond ROR-T and ROR-PT. ROR and EP can reliably predict risk of distant metastasis in node-positive ER+/HER2- BC patients treated with chemotherapy and ET. Addition of clinical parameters into risk scores improves their prognostic ability. PMID:26909792

  19. The medical collections at the University of Glasgow.

    PubMed

    Reilly, Maggie; McDonald, Stuart W

    2009-01-01

    The medical and other collections in the University of Glasgow have at their core the generous bequest of Dr William Hunter (1718 - 1783), a local man who rose to become an internationally renowned anatomist and obstetrician. The University does not have a Medical Museum as such but an Anatomy Museum, a Zoology Museum, a Pathology Collection, medical displays in the main halls of the Hunterian Museum in the Gilbert Scott Building and a rich collection of antiquarian medical books and archives as well as contemporary libraries. The Hunterian Collection, since its inauguration at the University of Glasgow in 1807, has engendered a spirit of diversity and scholarship that embraces many disciplines across the campus. The Hunterian Museum was the first public museum in Scotland and service to the local, national and international communities and response to their academic needs is very much at heart of its function today. PMID:20481359

  20. HIV risk behaviours among female prostitute drug injectors in Glasgow.

    PubMed

    Taylor, A; Frischer, M; McKeganey, N; Goldberg, D; Green, S; Platt, S

    1993-11-01

    This paper focuses upon HIV-related risk behaviours of 51 female drug injecting prostitutes, interviewed as part of a serial cross-sectional study of injecting drug users in Glasgow. Forty-five per cent injected with used needles and syringes in the 6 months prior to interview. Condom use in private sexual relations was low with only 9% of those with primary partners and 22% of those with casual partners reporting consistent use of condoms with these partners. In contrast, use of condoms for all commercial sexual encounters was almost universal. Prevalence of HIV was 2.2%. Despite this low prevalence, we conclude that the level of injecting-related and private sexual risk behaviours reported here requires the continuing monitoring of drug injecting prostitutes in Glasgow.

  1. The medical collections at the University of Glasgow.

    PubMed

    Reilly, Maggie; McDonald, Stuart W

    2009-01-01

    The medical and other collections in the University of Glasgow have at their core the generous bequest of Dr William Hunter (1718 - 1783), a local man who rose to become an internationally renowned anatomist and obstetrician. The University does not have a Medical Museum as such but an Anatomy Museum, a Zoology Museum, a Pathology Collection, medical displays in the main halls of the Hunterian Museum in the Gilbert Scott Building and a rich collection of antiquarian medical books and archives as well as contemporary libraries. The Hunterian Collection, since its inauguration at the University of Glasgow in 1807, has engendered a spirit of diversity and scholarship that embraces many disciplines across the campus. The Hunterian Museum was the first public museum in Scotland and service to the local, national and international communities and response to their academic needs is very much at heart of its function today.

  2. Biochemical markers and somatosensory evoked potentials in patients after cardiac arrest: the role of neurological outcome scores.

    PubMed

    Rana, Obaida R; Saygili, Erol; Schiefer, Johannes; Marx, Nikolaus; Schauerte, Patrick

    2011-06-15

    Biochemical markers, e.g. NSE or S100B, and somatosensory evoked potentials (SSEP) are considered promising candidates for neurological prognostic predictors in patients after cardiac arrest (CA). The Utstein Templates recommend the use of the Glasgow-Pittsburgh Cerebral Performance Categories (GP-CPC) to divide patients according to their neurological outcome. However, several studies investigating biochemical markers and SSEP are based on the Glasgow Outcome Score (GOS). We noticed that many studies failed to exclude patients who died without certified brain damage from patients classified as poor outcome, instead including all patients who died into this category. Therefore, we summarized the published NSE cut-off values and the derived sensitivity and specificity to predict poor outcome of those studies which only included patients with certified brain death in GOS-1 or GP-CPC-5 (group A) vs. those studies which did not differentiate between death from any cause or death due to primary brain damage (group B). On average, mean NSE cut-off values and sensitivity were higher (56 ± 35 ng/ml, 56 ± 18%) in group A than in group B (41 ± 17 ng/ml, 44 ± 25%), respectively. The specificity remained equally high in both groups. In analogy, the average sensitivity of SSEP to predict poor outcome was higher in group A (76 ± 11%) than in group B (50 ± 15%), while the specificity was similar in both groups. Conclusively, inclusion of deaths without certified brain damage after CA in neurological outcome studies will lead to underestimation of the prognostic power of biochemical or electrophysiological markers for brain damage. A modified GOS and GP-CPC score might help to avoid this bias.

  3. The 20 item prosopagnosia index (PI20): relationship with the Glasgow face-matching test

    PubMed Central

    Sowden, Sophie; Gaule, Anne; Bird, Geoffrey

    2015-01-01

    The 20 item prosopagnosia index (PI20) was recently developed to identify individuals with developmental prosopagnosia. While the PI20’s principal purpose is to aid researchers and clinicians, it was suggested that it may serve as a useful screening tool to identify people with face recognition difficulties in applied settings where face matching is a critical part of their occupation. Although the PI20 has been validated using behavioural measures of face recognition, it has yet to be validated against a measure of face-matching ability that is more representative of applied settings. In this study, the PI20 was therefore administered with the Glasgow face-matching test (GFMT). A strong correlation was observed between PI20 and GFMT scores, providing further validation for the PI20, indicating that it is likely to be of value in applied settings. PMID:26715995

  4. Assessment of nurse’s knowledge about Glasgow coma scale at a university hospital

    PubMed Central

    Santos, Wesley Cajaíba; Vancini-Campanharo, Cássia Regina; Lopes, Maria Carolina Barbosa Teixeira; Okuno, Meiry Fernanda Pinto; Batista, Ruth Ester Assayag

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Objective To assess knowledge of nurses of emergency services and intensive care units about Glasgow Coma Scale. Methods This cross-sectional analytical study included 127 nurses of critical units of an university hospital. We used structured interview with 12 questions to evaluate their knowledge about the scale. Association of Knowledge with professionals’ sociodemographic variables were verified by the Fisher-test, χ2 and likelihood ratio. Results Most of participants were women mean aged 31.1 years, they had graduated more than 5 years previously, and had 1 to 3 years of work experience. In the assessment of best score possible for Glasgow scale (question 3) nurses who had graduate more than 5 years ago presented a lower percentage success rate (p=0.0476). However, in the question 7, which evaluated what interval of the scale indicated moderate severity of brain trauma injury, those with more years of experience had higher percentage of correct answers (p=0.0251). In addition, nurses from emergency service had more correct answers than nurses from intensive care unit (p=0.0143) in the same question. Nurses graduated for more than 5 years ago had a lower percentage of correct answers in question 7 (p=0.0161). Nurses with more work experience had a better score (p=0.0119) to identify how assessment of motor response should be started. Conclusion Number of year since graduation, experience, and work at critical care units interfered in nurses’ knowledge about the scale, which indicates the need of training. PMID:27462896

  5. Traumatic axonal injury: the prognostic value of lesion load in corpus callosum, brain stem, and thalamus in different magnetic resonance imaging sequences.

    PubMed

    Moen, Kent G; Brezova, Veronika; Skandsen, Toril; Håberg, Asta K; Folvik, Mari; Vik, Anne

    2014-09-01

    The aim of this study was to explore the prognostic value of visible traumatic axonal injury (TAI) loads in different MRI sequences from the early phase after adjusting for established prognostic factors. Likewise, we sought to explore the prognostic role of early apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values in normal-appearing corpus callosum. In this prospective study, 128 patients (mean age, 33.9 years; range, 11-69) with moderate (n = 64) and severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) were examined with MRI at a median of 8 days (range, 0-28) postinjury. TAI lesions in fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR), diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), and T2*-weighted gradient echo (T2*GRE) sequences were counted and FLAIR lesion volumes estimated. In patients and 47 healthy controls, mean ADC values were computed in 10 regions of interests in the normal-appearing corpus callosum. Outcome measure was the Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOS-E) at 12 months. In patients with severe TBI, number of DWI lesions and volume of FLAIR lesions in the corpus callosum, brain stem, and thalamus predicted outcome in analyses with adjustment for age, Glasgow Coma Scale score, and pupillary dilation (odds ratio, 1.3-6.9; p = <0.001-0.017). The addition of Rotterdam CT score and DWI lesions in the corpus callosum yielded the highest R2 (0.24), compared to all other MRI variables, including brain stem lesions. For patients with moderate TBI only the number of cortical contusions (p = 0.089) and Rotterdam CT score (p = 0.065) tended to predict outcome. Numbers of T2*GRE lesions did not affect outcome. Mean ADC values in the normal-appearing corpus callosum did not differ from controls. In conclusion, the loads of visible TAI lesions in the corpus callosum, brain stem, and thalamus in DWI and FLAIR were independent prognostic factors in patients with severe TBI. DWI lesions in the corpus callosum were the most important predictive MRI variable. Interestingly, number of cortical

  6. Learning from history: The Glasgow Airport terrorist attack.

    PubMed

    Crichton, Gillies

    Glasgow Airport was the target of a terrorist attack on 30th June, 2007. Many people within Scotland had come to believe that Scotland was immune from terrorism. This perception was in large part informed by Scotland's experience during the protracted Troubles in Northern Ireland, during which the Provisional Irish Republican Army's mainland bombing campaign focused on targets in England, sparing both Scotland and Wales. While Glasgow Airport did not expect such an attack to take place, meticulous planning, organising and testing of plans had taken place to mitigate the unlikely event of such an attack. The attack stands up as a shining example of robust business continuity management, where the airport reopened for business as usual in less than 24 hours from the time of the attack. Little is known about how the airport handled the situation in conjunction with other responding agencies as people tend to want to focus on high-profile disasters only. Yet countless such incidents are happening worldwide on a daily basis, in which there are excellent learning opportunities, and, taken in the spirit of converting hindsight into foresight, the likelihood of similar incidents could potentially be reduced in the future.

  7. The Glasgow Outcome Scale - 40 years of application and refinement.

    PubMed

    McMillan, Tom; Wilson, Lindsay; Ponsford, Jennie; Levin, Harvey; Teasdale, Graham; Bond, Michael

    2016-08-01

    The Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) was first published in 1975 by Bryan Jennett and Michael Bond. With over 4,000 citations to the original paper, it is the most highly cited outcome measure in studies of brain injury and the second most-cited paper in clinical neurosurgery. The original GOS and the subsequently developed extended GOS (GOSE) are recommended by several national bodies as the outcome measure for major trauma and for head injury. The enduring appeal of the GOS is linked to its simplicity, short administration time, reliability and validity, stability, flexibility of administration (face-to-face, over the telephone and by post), cost-free availability and ease of access. These benefits apply to other derivatives of the scale, including the Glasgow Outcome at Discharge Scale (GODS) and the GOS paediatric revision. The GOS was devised to provide an overview of outcome and to focus on social recovery. Since the initial development of the GOS, there has been an increasing focus on the multidimensional nature of outcome after head injury. This Review charts the development of the GOS, its refinement and usage over the past 40 years, and considers its current and future roles in developing an understanding of brain injury. PMID:27418377

  8. The Glasgow Outcome Scale - 40 years of application and refinement.

    PubMed

    McMillan, Tom; Wilson, Lindsay; Ponsford, Jennie; Levin, Harvey; Teasdale, Graham; Bond, Michael

    2016-08-01

    The Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) was first published in 1975 by Bryan Jennett and Michael Bond. With over 4,000 citations to the original paper, it is the most highly cited outcome measure in studies of brain injury and the second most-cited paper in clinical neurosurgery. The original GOS and the subsequently developed extended GOS (GOSE) are recommended by several national bodies as the outcome measure for major trauma and for head injury. The enduring appeal of the GOS is linked to its simplicity, short administration time, reliability and validity, stability, flexibility of administration (face-to-face, over the telephone and by post), cost-free availability and ease of access. These benefits apply to other derivatives of the scale, including the Glasgow Outcome at Discharge Scale (GODS) and the GOS paediatric revision. The GOS was devised to provide an overview of outcome and to focus on social recovery. Since the initial development of the GOS, there has been an increasing focus on the multidimensional nature of outcome after head injury. This Review charts the development of the GOS, its refinement and usage over the past 40 years, and considers its current and future roles in developing an understanding of brain injury.

  9. Learning from history: The Glasgow Airport terrorist attack.

    PubMed

    Crichton, Gillies

    Glasgow Airport was the target of a terrorist attack on 30th June, 2007. Many people within Scotland had come to believe that Scotland was immune from terrorism. This perception was in large part informed by Scotland's experience during the protracted Troubles in Northern Ireland, during which the Provisional Irish Republican Army's mainland bombing campaign focused on targets in England, sparing both Scotland and Wales. While Glasgow Airport did not expect such an attack to take place, meticulous planning, organising and testing of plans had taken place to mitigate the unlikely event of such an attack. The attack stands up as a shining example of robust business continuity management, where the airport reopened for business as usual in less than 24 hours from the time of the attack. Little is known about how the airport handled the situation in conjunction with other responding agencies as people tend to want to focus on high-profile disasters only. Yet countless such incidents are happening worldwide on a daily basis, in which there are excellent learning opportunities, and, taken in the spirit of converting hindsight into foresight, the likelihood of similar incidents could potentially be reduced in the future. PMID:25416378

  10. The functional intraoral Glasgow scale in floor of mouth carcinoma: longitudinal assessment of 62 consecutive patients.

    PubMed

    Ellabban, Mohamed A; Shoaib, Taimur; Devine, John; McMahon, Jeremy; Morley, Stephen; Adly, Osama A; Farrag, Sherif H; Moati, Taha A; Soutar, David

    2013-03-01

    The functional integrity of the floor of the mouth (FOM) is essential in maintaining tongue mobility, deglutition, and control and disposal of saliva. The present study focused on reporting oral function using functional intraoral Glasgow scale (FIGS) in patients who had surgical ablation and reconstruction of FOM carcinoma with or without chemo-radiotherapy. The study included patients who had surgical treatment of floor of mouth cancer in two regional head and neck units in Glasgow, UK between January 2006 and August 2007. Patients were assessed using FIGS before surgery, 2 months, 6 months and 1 year after surgery. It is a five-point scale self-questionnaire to allow patients to self-assess speech, chewing and swallowing. The maximum total score is 15 points. The influence of socio-demographic parameters, tumour characteristics and surgical parameters was addressed in the study. A total of 62 consecutive patients were included in the study; 41 (66.1 %) were males and 21 (33.9 %) were females. The patients' mean age at the time of diagnosis was 60.6 years. Fifty (80.6 %) patients had unilateral origin of FOM tumours and 10 (19.4 %) had bilateral origin. Peroral approach was the most common approach used in 35 (56.4 %) patients. The mean preoperative FIGS score was 14. Two months after surgery, it droped to 9.4 then started to increase gradually thereafter and recorded 10.1 at 6 months and 11 at 1 year. Unilateral FOM resection recorded better score than bilateral and lateral FOM tumours than anterior at 1 year postoperatively. Furthermore, direct closure showed better functional outcome than loco-regional and free flaps. The FIGS is a simple and comprehensive way of assessing a patient's functional impairment following surgery in the FOM. Tumour site and size, surgical access, surgical resection and method of reconstruction showed significant influence on oral function following surgical resection. A well-designed rehabilitation programme is required to improve

  11. Patients with Glasgow Coma Scale scores 3, 4, 5 after gunshot wounds to the brain.

    PubMed

    Kaufman, H H; Levy, M L; Stone, J L; Masri, L S; Lichtor, T; Lavine, S D; Fitzgerald, L F; Apuzzo, M L

    1995-10-01

    Even this information is only partial. To study fully the effects of treatment would require optimal care at all points from time of injury, including rapid prehospital resuscitation, rapid transport to an optimally equipped and staffed hospital, immediate evaluation and treatment of the initial injury and all complications, rapid and comprehensive rehabilitation, and supportive and flexible home and work settings for the patient on discharge. Patients would need to be stratified for premorbid characteristics, including intelligence, personal traits, and training. Prolonged follow-up, possibly for several years, would be required to determine true outcome. No current study contains sufficient numbers of patients treated optimally and studied for prolonged periods, but this should be done. One way of looking at such patients is to decide that many should be treated to salvage a few. The other way of looking at them is that so many must receive care, at great emotional and economic cost to themselves and others, that such treatment is inappropriate for any of them. Treating all such patients would be a major undertaking. If most of these patients were treated vigorously, a great proportion of them would still die but probably not for a number of days. During this period, their families would be under extreme stress. Once stabilized and receiving ongoing care, some patients would enter a permanent vegetative state and survive for prolonged periods until their prognosis was clear and care was withdrawn, again causing family stress as well as high cost. Some would likely survive although impaired. The charges and real costs of care for all these patients would be tremendous. The question therefore arises as to how to decide what to do about caring for a large group of patients whose maximal care would be costly in emotional and financial terms, particularly at a time when it is recognized that resources for medical care are going to be limited. When discussing such patients as a group with a view toward developing practice guidelines, many considerations must be brought to bear. One consideration is the certainty of the prognosis in both a quantitative and a qualitative sense in an individual case. It is not clear that one can be certain in patients except when there are overwhelmingly unfavorable features. As has been noted, even patients who have been shot through the geographic center of the brain and are posturing can make excellent recoveries. This would push toward aggressive treatment for many patients. Decision making must therefore be considered in terms of bioethics. The major principle-based systems of bioethics are deontologic, arising from accepted principles, and utilitarian, arising from effect on outcome. A virtue-based ethic for physicians arising from "the caring bond and the public trust" is being revived as a balance to analytical ethics. A similar orientation from the point of view of patients is communitarian ethics, that is asking for only what is reasonable and not so much as might harm others. Some of the issues to be considered include the sanctity of life while taking into account the criteria for life--vegetative function versus some level of mental function. One must also review each decision from the viewpoints of all the parties involved--patients, family and friends, physicians, and society--in the context of a heterogeneous society in which individual rights and tolerance enforced by law are primary features. In the patients' terms, there is a desire and right to medical care to maintain a healthy productive life. Even if impaired to some extent, patients may still have an interest in living. Balancing benefits and burdens of life is a complex problem. There is also the right, based on patients' values, to refuse care if there is the wish not to take a chance of having a significantly compromised existence. Such declaration before injury should be honored...

  12. Incidence of mesothelioma in Glasgow 1981-1984.

    PubMed

    Gillis, C R; Hole, D J; Lamont, D W

    1990-01-01

    Considerable public concern exists about the effects of exposure to asbestos both at the workplace and in the general environment. In addition, the recording of mesothelioma in health registers is questionable both in terms of accuracy and completeness. This paper compares nine different sources of data for mesothelioma in an attempt to establish the true incidence of the disease in the geographical area of the Greater Glasgow Health Board between 1981 and 1984. Although 113 cases were identified, no single source identified more than 86 per cent of this total, thus presenting a case for a special mesothelioma register. A questionnaire-based study of the occupational exposures and residential histories of the cases was also carried out. It confirmed the findings of similar studies in that mesothelioma occurs predominantly in those exposed by reason of their occupation. No relationship with place of residence was apparent independent of occupation.

  13. Growing up in Glasgow: the social context of adolescence.

    PubMed

    Levin, K A; Walsh, D; McCartney, G

    2015-06-01

    The adolescent population of Glasgow, the city with the highest mortality in the UK, has a higher prevalence of risk behaviours than elsewhere in Scotland. Previous research has highlighted the importance of social context in interpreting such differences. Contextual variables from the 2010 Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Scotland survey were analysed. Glaswegian adolescents were more likely to live in low socioeconomic status, single-parent or step-families, or with neither parent in employment, less likely to share family meals, more likely to buy lunch outside school, and spend time with friends after school and in the evenings. They also had a poorer perception of their local neighbourhood. Family affluence only partially explained these differences. PMID:25788475

  14. [Value of early acoustic and somatosensory evoked potentials in monitoring and prognostic assessment of coma in barbiturate therapy--comparison with clinical aspects and EEG].

    PubMed

    Reisecker, F; Witzmann, A; Löffler, W; Leblhuber, F; Deisenhammer, E; Valencak, E

    1987-03-01

    25 comatose patients suffering from severe cerebral lesions of different etiology were examined during barbiturate-therapy by Glasgow-Pittsburg-Coma-Scoring-System (GPCS), EEG, somatosensory and brainstem acoustic evoked potentials. The findings were correlated in view of prognostic prediction and importance for monitoring. A modified form of the Glasgow-Outcome-Score (GOS; independent-survival, dependent-survival, dead) was used for evaluating the outcome. In case of an initial GPCS less than 10 points none of the patients survived, in case of GPCS greater than 10 points 11 out of 19 patients survived. The latter relation of survival was also found in patients with improving or impairing scores during the observation period. In case of initial burst-suppression pattern in the EEG 7 out of 11 patients survived, in case of diffuse abnormalities with or with-out additional focal signs - 4 out of 10 patients survived, but in the latter there was none with an outcome of independent survival. All patients with an isoelectric EEG died. In case of bilateral recording of scalp- SEP 7 out of 11 patients survived, in case of unilateral loss of scalp-EP 4 out of 8 patients survived, but in the latter cases none with an outcome of independence. All patients with initial bilateral failure of scalp-SSEP or loss during the observation period died. In case of bilateral registrable BAEP (wave I to V) 11 out of 17 patients survived. All patients with initial uni- or bilateral failure of those potentials or loss during the observation period died.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) PMID:3106004

  15. Outcome and prognostic factors of malaria-associated acute kidney injury requiring hemodialysis: A single center experience

    PubMed Central

    Kute, V. B.; Shah, P. R.; Munjappa, B. C.; Gumber, M. R.; Patel, H. V.; Jain, S. H.; Engineer, D. P.; Naresh, V. V. Sai; Vanikar, A. V.; Trivedi, H. L.

    2012-01-01

    Acute kidney injury (AKI) is one of the most dreaded complications of severe malaria. We carried out prospective study in 2010, to describe clinical characteristics, laboratory parameters, prognostic factors, and outcome in 59 (44 males, 15 females) smear-positive malaria patients with AKI. The severity of illness was assessed using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score (MODS), and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores. All patients received artesunate and hemodialysis (HD). Mean age of patients was 33.63 ± 14 years. Plasmodium falciparum malaria was seen in 76.3% (n = 45), Plasmodium vivax in 16.9% (n = 10), and mixed infection in 6.8% (n = 4) patients. Presenting clinical features were fever (100%), nausea-vomiting (85%), oliguria (61%), abdominal pain/tenderness (50.8%), and jaundice (74.5%). Mean APACHE II, SOFA, MODS, and GCS scores were 18.1 ± 3, 10.16 ± 3.09, 9.71 ± 2.69, and 14.15 ± 1.67, respectively, all were higher among patients who died than among those who survived. APACHE II ≥20, SOFA and MODS scores ≥12 were associated with higher mortality (P < 0.05). 34% patients received blood component transfusion and exchange transfusion was done in 15%. Mean number of HD sessions required was 4.59 ± 3.03. Renal biopsies were performed in five patients (three with patchy cortical necrosis and two with acute tubular necrosis). 81.3% of patients had complete renal recovery and 11.8% succumbed to malaria. Prompt diagnosis, timely HD, and supportive therapy were associated with improved survival and recovery of kidney functions in malarial with AKI. Mortality was associated with higher APACHE II, SOFA, MODS, GCS scores, requirement of inotrope, and ventilator support. PMID:22279340

  16. Gender Differences in Community-acquired Meningitis in Adults: Clinical Presentations and Prognostic Factors

    PubMed Central

    Dharmarajan, Lavanya; Salazar, Lucrecia; Hasbun, Rodrigo

    2016-01-01

    Community-acquired meningitis is a serious disease that is associated with high morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this study was to investigate the gender differences involved with the clinical presentations of and prognostic factors for this disease. We conducted a retrospective study of 619 adults diagnosed with community-acquired meningitis in Houston, Texas, who were hospitalized between 2005 and 2010. Patients were categorized as male or female. Those who were evaluated to have a Glasgow Outcome Scale score of four or less were classified to have an adverse clinical outcome. Males consisted of 47.2% (292/619) of the total cohort, and more often presented with coexisting medical conditions, fever, abnormal microbiology results, and abnormalities on head computed tomography. Females more often presented with nuchal rigidity. On logistic regression, fever, CSF glucose <45 mg/dL, and an abnormal neurological examination were predictors of an adverse outcome in male patients, while age greater than 60 years and an abnormal neurological examination were associated with a poor prognosis in female patients. Thus, community-acquired meningitis in males differs significantly from females in regards to comorbidities, presenting symptoms and signs, abnormal laboratory and imaging analysis, and predictors of adverse clinical outcomes. PMID:27500284

  17. [Biographies following release from mental hospital, Glasgow 1875-1921].

    PubMed

    Gründler, Jens

    2011-01-01

    For a long time mental asylums were seen as hermetically sealed units for the long-term confinement of patients. The broad and excluding nature of these establishments was their most prominent feature. From the end of the last century socio-historical and patient-oriented research has questioned and revised these properties. The present essay is based on that research. Using the example of a pauper asylum in Glasgow between 1875 and 1921 the essay analyses the number of released patients, how they were released and how they lived after being released. The sources used were individual patient files of the asylum and the corresponding files of the pauper administration. Although the number of releases--especially of patients who had been cured--declined in the period of investigation, the rate of successful outcomes remained, at 20 to 30 per cent, clearly above that of comparable institutions of the 1910s. According to the files, the key factor in favour of a release was the ability for social re-inclusion. The files examined reveal three typical biographical patterns: reintegration, psychiatric care and social care. While the first group tended to disappear from the sight of physicians and carers, members of the other groups frequently reappeared in the records. Apparently, social services as well as the asylum were often used to help cope with temporary family crises. Once the situation improved, the patients in question left social care and were taken home by their families.

  18. Clinical characteristics and prognostic factors of patients with mature T-cell lymphoid malignancies: a single-institution study of 225 cases.

    PubMed

    Xue, Wen; Sheng, Yan; Weng, Xiangqin; Zhu, Yongmei; Zhao, Yan; Xu, Pengpeng; Fei, Xiaochun; Chen, Xiaoyan; Wang, Li; Zhao, Weili

    2015-12-01

    Mature T-cell lymphoid malignancies comprise a group of heterogeneous diseases that vary in clinicopathological features, biological behavior, treatment response, and prognosis. Bone marrow (BM) infiltration is more commonly present in mature T-cell lymphoid malignancies compared with their B-cell counterparts and hence important for differential diagnosis. In this study, clinical characteristics and prognostic factors were analyzed in 225 patients with mature T-cell lymphoid malignancies treated in a single institution. These included 29 cases of T-cell lymphoproliferative disorders (T-LPD, all with BM infiltration) and 196 cases of T-/natural-killer-cell lymphoma (T/NKCL, 56 with BM infiltration and 140 without BM infiltration). The estimated 5-year overall survival (OS) rates of T-LPD and T/NKCL were 96.6% and 37.3%, respectively. T-LPD patients were less likely to exhibit poor performance status, advanced disease stage, presence of B symptoms, or abnormal level of serum β-2 microglobulin. With similar pathological characteristics, T/NKCL patients with BM infiltration showed significantly lower response rates and shorter OS than those without BM infiltration (P = 0.0264 and P < 0.0001, respectively). Multivariate analysis indicated that poor performance status, advanced disease stage, elevated serum lactate dehydrogenase level, and BM involvement were independent unfavorable prognostic factors. The Glasgow Prognostic Score may be more efficient than the International Prognostic Index in predicting disease outcome in T/NKCL. In conclusion, clinical characteristics may be useful in more effectively stratifying patients with mature T-cell lymphoid malignancies.

  19. Mark Jameson's physic plants, a sixteenth century garden for gynaecology in Glasgow?

    PubMed

    Dickson, J H; Gauld, W W

    1987-04-01

    Deputy Rector of the University of Glasgow and a vicar choral of Glasgow Cathedral, the physician Mark Jameson made many annotations in his copy of the 1549 edition of Fuchs' herbal. On the back flyleaf are the names of 26 plants, 22 of which were "To be sett & sawin in ye garding". Many of the 26 plants have gynaecological properties; some are even abortifacient, especially the highly dangerous savin, Juniperus sabina. PMID:3299698

  20. An Exploration of Smoking Behavior of African Male Immigrants Living in Glasgow

    PubMed Central

    Ezika, Ejiofor Augustine

    2014-01-01

    INTRODUCTION The aim of this research study was to explore the smoking behavior of adult African male immigrant smokers living in Glasgow to inform and contribute to primary health promotion frameworks. METHODS 25 adult African male immigrant smokers living in Glasgow were recruited via consecutive sampling by soliciting for participation through the use of flyers, posters and word of mouth. Data collection occurred via semi-structured face-to-face interviews. The interviews were audio taped, after which verbatim transcription was carried out and the data analyzed thematically. RESULTS The participants’ smoking habits were influenced by cold weather environment as well as societal norms that appear to make the smoking habit more acceptable in Glasgow than Africa. It appears the more educated the participants were, the fewer cigarettes they smoked. However, there was only a slight difference in the number of cigarettes smoked between participants with a degree and those with a postgraduate degree. CONCLUSION The participants’ smoking habits in Glasgow appear to have increased because of environmental variables associated with living in Glasgow, specifically the cold weather environment and high acceptability of smoking habits in Glasgow. PMID:25741179

  1. Space Radar Image of Missouri River, Glasgow, Missouri

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1994-01-01

    This is a false-color L-band image of an area near Glasgow, Missouri, centered at about 39.2 degrees north latitude and 92.8 degrees west longitude. The image was acquired by the Spaceborne Imaging Radar-C and X-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SIR-C/X-SAR) aboard the space shuttle Endeavour on its 50th orbit on October 3, 1994. The false-color composite was made by displaying the L-band (horizontally transmitted and received) return in red; the L-band (horizontally transmitted and vertically received) return in green; and the sum of the two channels in blue. The area shown is approximately 37 kilometers by 25 kilometers (23 miles by 16 miles). The radar data, coupled with pre-flood aerial photography and satellite data and post-flood topographic and field data, are being used to evaluate changes associated with levee breaks in landforms, where deposits formed during the widespread flooding in 1993 along the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers. The distinct radar scattering properties of farmland, sand fields and scoured areas will be used to inventory floodplains along the Missouri River and determine the processes by which these areas return to preflood conditions. The image shows one such levee break near Glasgow, Missouri. In the upper center of the radar image is a region covered by several meters of sand, shown as blue regions below the bend in the river. West (left) of this dark area, a blue gap in the levee tree canopy can be seen, showing the area where the levee failed. Radar data such as these can help scientists more accurately assess the potential for future flooding in this region and how that might impact surrounding communities. Spaceborne Imaging Radar-C and X-band Synthetic Aperture Radar(SIR-C/X-SAR) is part of NASA's Mission to Planet Earth. The radars illuminate Earth with microwaves, allowing detailed observations at any time, regardless of weather or sunlight conditions. SIR-C/X-SAR uses three microwave wavelengths: L-band (24 cm), C-band (6 cm

  2. Molecular prognostic prediction in liver cirrhosis.

    PubMed

    Goossens, Nicolas; Nakagawa, Shigeki; Hoshida, Yujin

    2015-09-28

    The natural history of cirrhosis varies and therefore prognostic prediction is critical given the sizable patient population. A variety of clinical prognostic indicators have been developed and enable patient risk stratification although their performance is somewhat limited especially within relatively earlier stage of disease. Molecular prognostic indicators are expected to refine the prediction, and potentially link a subset of patients with molecular targeted interventions that counteract poor prognosis. Here we overview clinical and molecular prognostic indicators in the literature, and discuss critical issues to successfully define, evaluate, and deploy prognostic indicators as clinical scores or tests. The use of liver biopsy has been diminishing due to sampling variability on fibrosis assessment and emergence of imaging- or lab test-based fibrosis assessment methods. However, recent rapid developments of genomics technologies and selective molecular targeted agents has highlighted the need for biopsy tissue specimen to explore and establish molecular information-guided personalized/stratified clinical care, and eventually achieve "precision medicine".

  3. Evaluation of 5 Prognostic Scores for Prediction of Stroke, Thromboembolic and Coronary Events, All-Cause Mortality, and Major Adverse Cardiac Events in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation and Coronary Stenting.

    PubMed

    Fauchier, Laurent; Lecoq, Coralie; Ancedy, Yann; Stamboul, Karim; Saint Etienne, Christophe; Ivanes, Fabrice; Angoulvant, Denis; Babuty, Dominique; Cottin, Yves; Lip, Gregory Y H

    2016-09-01

    Management of antithrombotic therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and coronary stenting remains challenging, and there is a need for efficient tools to predict their risk of different types of cardiovascular events and death. Several scores exist such as the CHA2DS2-VASc score, the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score, the Synergy between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention with Taxus and Cardiac Surgery (SYNTAX) score, the Anatomical and Clinical Syntax II Score and the Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health score. These 5 scores were investigated in patients with AF with coronary stenting with the aim of determining which was most predictive for stroke/thromboembolic (TE) events, nonlethal coronary events, all-cause mortality, and major adverse cardiac events (MACE). Among 845 patients with AF with coronary stenting seen from 2000 to 2014, 440 (52%) were admitted for acute coronary syndrome and 405 (48%) for elective percutaneous coronary intervention. The rate of cardiovascular complication was at 14.1% per year, and nonlethal coronary events were the most frequent complications with a yearly rate of 6.5%. CHA2DS2-VASc score was the best predictor of stroke/TE events with a c-statistic of 0.604 (95% CI 0.567 to 0.639) and a best cut-off point of 5. SYNTAX score was better to predict nonlethal coronary events and MACE with c-statistics of 0.634 (95% CI 0.598 to 0.669) and 0.612 (95% CI 0.575 to 0.647), respectively, with a best cut-off point of 9. GRACE score appeared to be the best to predict all-cause mortality with a c-statistic of 0.682 (95% CI 0.646 to 0.717) and a best cut-off point of 153. In conclusions, among validated scores, none is currently robust enough to simultaneously predict stroke/TE events, nonlethal coronary events, death, and MACE in patients with AF with stents. The CHA2DS2-VASc score remained the best score to assess stroke/TE risk, as was the SYNTAX score for nonlethal coronary events and MACE

  4. Orthodoxy and reform: differing medical practices in a Glasgow Jewish Victorian family.

    PubMed

    Collins, K

    1995-01-01

    Medical botanists formed a major and growing element in the delivery of medical care in Victorian Britain, supplementing the provision made by qualified physicians. Medical reform, introduced into Britain from the United States in the middle of the nineteenth century, combined botanical treatment, including a strong emphasis on the use of lobelia, with physiotherapy. The Levenston family in Glasgow was represented among both qualified orthodox medical practitioners and unqualified practitioners of medical botany. Samuel Levenston graduated M.D. at the University of Glasgow in 1859 and had a long career in medical practice in Glasgow after years of work as an unqualified practitioner. His father and brothers were active in medical botany in Glasgow, Edinburgh and Dublin, often posing as doctors but without appropriate qualifications. This paper examines the history of the Levenstons and contrasts the practices of the different members of the family, showing the relationships between a university-trained physician and medical chemists. The surviving Glasgow pharmacopeia of Solomon (Alexander) Levenston illustrates the style of his medical treatments, setting the practice of his medical botany into context.

  5. The sequential trauma score - a new instrument for the sequential mortality prediction in major trauma*

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background There are several well established scores for the assessment of the prognosis of major trauma patients that all have in common that they can be calculated at the earliest during intensive care unit stay. We intended to develop a sequential trauma score (STS) that allows prognosis at several early stages based on the information that is available at a particular time. Study design In a retrospective, multicenter study using data derived from the Trauma Registry of the German Trauma Society (2002-2006), we identified the most relevant prognostic factors from the patients basic data (P), prehospital phase (A), early (B1), and late (B2) trauma room phase. Univariate and logistic regression models as well as score quality criteria and the explanatory power have been calculated. Results A total of 2,354 patients with complete data were identified. From the patients basic data (P), logistic regression showed that age was a significant predictor of survival (AUCmodel p, area under the curve = 0.63). Logistic regression of the prehospital data (A) showed that blood pressure, pulse rate, Glasgow coma scale (GCS), and anisocoria were significant predictors (AUCmodel A = 0.76; AUCmodel P + A = 0.82). Logistic regression of the early trauma room phase (B1) showed that peripheral oxygen saturation, GCS, anisocoria, base excess, and thromboplastin time to be significant predictors of survival (AUCmodel B1 = 0.78; AUCmodel P +A + B1 = 0.85). Multivariate analysis of the late trauma room phase (B2) detected cardiac massage, abbreviated injury score (AIS) of the head ≥ 3, the maximum AIS, the need for transfusion or massive blood transfusion, to be the most important predictors (AUCmodel B2 = 0.84; AUCfinal model P + A + B1 + B2 = 0.90). The explanatory power - a tool for the assessment of the relative impact of each segment to mortality - is 25% for P, 7% for A, 17% for B1 and 51% for B2. A spreadsheet for the easy calculation of the sequential trauma score is

  6. Apgar score

    MedlinePlus

    ... the baby's: Breathing effort Heart rate Muscle tone Reflexes Skin color Each category is scored with 0, ... scores 2 for muscle tone. Grimace response or reflex irritability is a term describing response to stimulation, ...

  7. S100b as a Prognostic Biomarker in Outcome Prediction for Patients with Severe Traumatic Brain Injury

    PubMed Central

    Goyal, Akash; Failla, Michelle D.; Niyonkuru, Christian; Amin, Krutika; Fabio, Anthony; Berger, Rachel P.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract As an astrocytic protein specific to the central nervous system, S100b is a potentially useful marker in outcome prediction after traumatic brain injury (TBI). Some studies have questioned the validity of S100b, citing the extracerebral origins of the protein as reducing the specificity of the marker. This study evaluated S100b as a prognostic biomarker in adult subjects with severe TBI (sTBI) by comparing outcomes with S100b temporal profiles generated from both cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) (n=138 subjects) and serum (n=80 subjects) samples across a 6-day time course. Long-bone fracture, Injury Severity Score (ISS), and isolated head injury status were variables used to assess extracerebral sources of S100b in serum. After TBI, CSF and serum S100b levels were increased over healthy controls across the first 6 days post-TBI (p≤0.005 and p≤0.031). Though CSF and serum levels were highly correlated during early time points post-TBI, this association diminished over time. Bivariate analysis showed that subjects who had temporal CSF profiles with higher S100b concentrations had higher acute mortality (p<0.001) and worse Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS; p=0.002) and Disability Rating Scale (DRS) scores (p=0.039) 6 months post-injury. Possibly as a result of extracerebral sources of S100b in serum, as represented by high ISS scores (p=0.032), temporal serum profiles were associated with acute mortality (p=0.015). High CSF S100b levels were observed in women (p=0.022) and older subjects (p=0.004). Multivariate logistic regression confirmed CSF S100b profiles in predicting GOS and DRS and showed mean and peak serum S100b as acute mortality predictors after sTBI. PMID:23190274

  8. Drug Issues Affecting Chinese, Indian and Pakistani People Living in Greater Glasgow

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ross, A. J.; Heim, D.; Bakshi, N.; Davies, J. B.; Flatley, K. J.; Hunter, S. C.

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes research on drug issues affecting Chinese, Indian and Pakistani people living in Greater Glasgow. There were two strands: (i) a questionnaire-based survey of young people and focus groups; (ii) interviews with young people and adults. The primary aims were to gather prevalence data and to investigate perceptions about current…

  9. The Use of Electronic Information Services and Information Literacy: A Glasgow Caledonian University Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crawford, John

    2006-01-01

    The study was undertaken as part of the LIRG/SCONUL Value and Impact study and sought to establish direct evidence of the impact of electronic information services (EIS) on Glasgow Caledonian University students, both past and present. Evidence of the spread of information literacy among students and alumni was also sought. An electronic…

  10. Contested Urban Spaces: Exploring the Analytics of Young Persons' Experiences of Living in Glasgow's Deprived Zones

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Holligan, Chris; Deuchar, Ross

    2011-01-01

    This paper reports findings from an exploratory study of mainly young people's verbally articulated perceptions of urban life in Glasgow, Scotland. The focus is upon areas of deprivation where territory and social capital is contested and whose meanings are possibly only partially grasped by our informants. Their personal knowledge of violence and…

  11. 78 FR 67218 - CSX Transportation, Inc.-Trackage Rights Exemption-Glasgow Railway Company

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-11-08

    ... Surface Transportation Board CSX Transportation, Inc.--Trackage Rights Exemption--Glasgow Railway Company..., referring to Docket No. FD 35778, must be filed with the Surface Transportation Board, 395 E Street SW... notices are available on our Web site at ``WWW.STB.DOT.GOV.'' Decided: November 4, 2013. By the...

  12. Perspectives on differing health outcomes by city: accounting for Glasgow's excess mortality.

    PubMed

    Fraser, Simon Ds; George, Steve

    2015-01-01

    Several health outcomes (including mortality) and health-related behaviors are known to be worse in Scotland than in comparable areas of Europe and the United Kingdom. Within Scotland, Greater Glasgow (in West Central Scotland) experiences disproportionately poorer outcomes independent of measurable variation in socioeconomic status and other important determinants. Many reasons for this have been proposed, particularly related to deprivation, inequalities, and variation in health behaviors. The use of models (such as the application of Bradford Hill's viewpoints on causality to the different hypotheses) has provided useful insights on potentially causal mechanisms, with health behaviors and inequalities likely to represent the strongest individual candidates. This review describes the evolution of our understanding of Glasgow's excess mortality, summarizes some of the key work in this area, and provides some suggestions for future areas of exploration. In the context of demographic change, the experience in Glasgow is an important example of the complexity that frequently lies behind observed variations in health outcomes within and between populations. A comprehensive explanation of Glasgow's excess mortality may continue to remain elusive, but is likely to lie in a complex and difficult-to-measure interplay of health determinants acting at different levels in society throughout the life course. Lessons learned from the detailed examination of different potentially causative determinants in Scotland may provide useful methodological insights that may be applied in other settings. Ongoing efforts to unravel the causal mechanisms are needed to inform public health efforts to reduce health inequalities and improve outcomes in Scotland.

  13. Scoring Package

    National Institute of Standards and Technology Data Gateway

    NIST Scoring Package (PC database for purchase)   The NIST Scoring Package (Special Database 1) is a reference implementation of the draft Standard Method for Evaluating the Performance of Systems Intended to Recognize Hand-printed Characters from Image Data Scanned from Forms.

  14. Scored Discussions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zola, John

    1992-01-01

    Suggests a classroom strategy to help students learn to analyze and discuss significant issues from history and current policy debates. Describes scored discussions in which small groups of students receive points for participation. Provides an example of a discussion on gold mining. Includes an agenda. Explores uses of scored discussions and…

  15. 24-Hour ICH Score Is a Better Predictor of Outcome than Admission ICH Score

    PubMed Central

    Aysenne, Aimee M.; Albright, Karen C.; Mathias, Tiffany; Chang, Tiffany R.; Boehme, Amelia K.; Beasley, T. Mark; Martin-Schild, Sheryl

    2016-01-01

    Background The ICH score is a validated tool for predicting 30-day morbidity and mortality in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage. Aims and/or Hypothesis The aim of this study is to determine if the ICH score calculated 24 hours after admission is a better predictor of mortality than the ICH score calculated on admission. Methods Patients presenting to our center with ICH from 7/08-12/10 were retrospectively identified from our prospective stroke registry. ICH scores were calculated based on initial Glasgow coma scale (GCS) and emergent head computed tomography (CT) on initial presentation and were recalculated after 24 hours. Results A total of 91 patients out of 121 had complete data for admission and 24-hour ICH score. The ICH score changed in 38% from baseline to 24 hours. After adjusting for age, NIHSS on admission, and glucose, ICH score at 24 hours was a significant, independent predictor of mortality (OR = 2.71, 95% CI 1–19–6.20, and P = 0.018), but ICH score on admission was not (OR = 2.14, 95% CI 0.88-5.24, and P = 0.095). Conclusion Early determination of the ICH score may incorrectly estimate the severity and expected outcome after ICH. Calculations of the ICH score 24 hours after admission will better predict early outcomes.

  16. SCORING IN ACUTE PANCREATITIS: WHEN IMAGING IS APPROPRIATE?.

    PubMed

    Cucuteanu, B; Prelipcean, Cristina Cijevschi; Mihai, Cătălina; Dranga, Mihaela; Negru, D

    2016-01-01

    Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a frequent presentation to the emergency departments with a rising incidence and a great variability in clinical severity and outcome. The aim of this review is to offer a succinct presentation on acute pancreatitis scoring systems and the use of different imaging methods in severity prediction: Ranson criteria, Glasgow criteria, Hong Kong Score, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), computed tomography scoring systems, Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score, Panc 3, Japanese Severity Score (JSS), Harmless Acute Pancreatitis Score (HAPS), Pancreatitis Outcome Prediction (POP), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA). This article also describes the Revised Atlanta Classification of AP (2012) and the correlation with computed tomography.

  17. Prognostics for Microgrid Components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saxena, Abhinav

    2012-01-01

    Prognostics is the science of predicting future performance and potential failures based on targeted condition monitoring. Moving away from the traditional reliability centric view, prognostics aims at detecting and quantifying the time to impending failures. This advance warning provides the opportunity to take actions that can preserve uptime, reduce cost of damage, or extend the life of the component. The talk will focus on the concepts and basics of prognostics from the viewpoint of condition-based systems health management. Differences with other techniques used in systems health management and philosophies of prognostics used in other domains will be shown. Examples relevant to micro grid systems and subsystems will be used to illustrate various types of prediction scenarios and the resources it take to set up a desired prognostic system. Specifically, the implementation results for power storage and power semiconductor components will demonstrate specific solution approaches of prognostics. The role of constituent elements of prognostics, such as model, prediction algorithms, failure threshold, run-to-failure data, requirements and specifications, and post-prognostic reasoning will be explained. A discussion on performance evaluation and performance metrics will conclude the technical discussion followed by general comments on open research problems and challenges in prognostics.

  18. The state of radiological protection; views of the radiation protection profession: IRPA13, Glasgow, May 2012.

    PubMed

    Lazo, Edward; Smith, Rachel; Coates, Roger; Andersen, Ralph; Asano, Yoshihiro; Chapple, Claire-Louise; Faulkner, Keith; Hefner, Alfred; Hill, Marion; Jones, Rick; Larsson, Carl-Magnus; Liebenberg, Gert; Liland, Astrid; McKinlay, Alastair; Menzel, Hans-Georg; Perks, Christopher; Rodriguez, Manuel; Schieber, Caroline; Shaw, Peter; Visage, Abrie; Wakeford, Richard; Ye, Sung-Joon

    2012-12-01

    The IRPA13 Congress took place from 14-18 May 2012 in Glasgow, Scotland, UK, and was attended by almost 1500 radiological protection professionals. The scientific programme of the Congress was designed to capture a snapshot of the profession's views of the current state of knowledge, and of the challenges seen for the coming years. This paper provides a summary of these results of the Congress in twelve key scientific areas that served as the structural backbone of IRPA13.

  19. Good in parts: the Gay Men's Task Force in Glasgow--a response to Kelly.

    PubMed

    Hart, G J; Williamson, L M; Flowers, P

    2004-02-01

    We know that peer education, or the use of popular opinion leaders (POLs), works in terms of reducing reported risk behaviour for HIV infection amongst gay men. The work of Jeffrey Kelly and his colleagues provides some of the best scientific evidence in support of this approach. Influenced by this work, we undertook a peer education intervention amongst gay men in bars in Glasgow--the Gay Men's Task Force (GMTF)--but failed to demonstrate any reduction in sexual risk behaviour for HIV infection. In this paper we describe why we were unable to repeat in Scotland the success in small cities in the USA of the POL model. Our explanations include: failure to replicate the 'core elements' of POL; spatial and temporal differences between the original POL settings and the bars of Glasgow; and the currency of ideas such as 'peer education' beyond the protocols designed for their implementation. However, we also describe some of the successful features of the GMTF in Glasgow, and the continued value of peer education in contributing to reductions in sexual risk behaviour for HIV infection. PMID:14676022

  20. Circulating Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor Has Diagnostic and Prognostic Value in Traumatic Brain Injury.

    PubMed

    Korley, Frederick K; Diaz-Arrastia, Ramon; Wu, Alan H B; Yue, John K; Manley, Geoffrey T; Sair, Haris I; Van Eyk, Jennifer; Everett, Allen D; Okonkwo, David O; Valadka, Alex B; Gordon, Wayne A; Maas, Andrew I R; Mukherjee, Pratik; Yuh, Esther L; Lingsma, Hester F; Puccio, Ava M; Schnyer, David M

    2016-01-15

    Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) is important for neuronal survival and regeneration. We investigated the diagnostic and prognostic values of serum BDNF in traumatic brain injury (TBI). We examined serum BDNF in two independent cohorts of TBI cases presenting to the emergency departments (EDs) of the Johns Hopkins Hospital (JHH; n = 76) and San Francisco General Hospital (SFGH, n = 80), and a control group of JHH ED patients without TBI (n = 150). Findings were subsequently validated in the prospective, multi-center Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in TBI (TRACK-TBI) Pilot study (n = 159). We investigated the association between BDNF, glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), and ubiquitin C-terminal hydrolase-L1 (UCH-L1) and recovery from TBI at 6 months in the TRACK-TBI Pilot cohort. Incomplete recovery was defined as having either post-concussive syndrome or a Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended score <8 at 6 months. Median day-of-injury BDNF concentrations (ng/mL) were lower among TBI cases (JHH TBI, 17.5 and SFGH TBI, 13.8) than in JHH controls (60.3; p = 0.0001). Among TRACK-TBI Pilot subjects, median BDNF concentrations (ng/mL) were higher in mild (8.3) than in moderate (4.3) or severe TBI (4.0; p = 0.004. In the TRACK-TBI cohort, the 75 (71.4%) subjects with very low BDNF values (i.e., prognostic information regarding recovery from TBI. Thus, day

  1. The Unseen Founders Of Quaternary Science - The Men Of Glasgow, Scotland (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rose, J.

    2010-12-01

    Louis Agassiz (1807-1873) and Charles Lyell (1797-1875) are widely regarded as the founders of Quaternary Science, and there is no doubt that they played their part: Agassiz in 1840 presented and promoted his case for the wide-scale fluctuations of glaciers, and Lyell, through his books and contacts, did much to introduce the subject which we now know as climate change. However there are a number of individuals who contributed to the founding of Quaternary Science who are not so readily recognised and a remarkable fact is that a significant proportion were men without academic training or background who come from, or worked in Glasgow or the adjacent region of central Scotland. First amongst the Glaswegians was James Smith (1782-1867) who, in 1836 presented a paper to the Geological Society of London (where it was duly ignored) in which he suggested, on the basis of fossils dredged from the bed of the Clyde and experience of sailing around Iceland, that the climate of Scotland had been as cold as that of Iceland in the recent past. In 1841, Charles Maclaren (1782-1866) a journalist from Edinburgh, but using information based on raised shorelines near Glasgow proposed what we now know as the glacio-eustatic theory in which the variations in glacier extent control the level of the sea. Perhaps the most important of all was James Croll (1821- 1890) who worked on the theory of ice ages, based on orbital forcing, while janitor at the Andersonian Institute and Museum in Glasgow between 1859-1867. This work was the true precursor to the Milankovitch theory which provides the explanation for the major predictable elements of climate change. Robert Jack (1845-1921) from Irvine, southwest of Glasgow, while doing fieldwork for the British Geological Survey near Loch Lomond close to Glasgow, described in 1874 evidence for non-glacial conditions between tills and clearly recognised that climate could change from glacial to temperate and then glacial climate, before returning to

  2. Prognostic modeling in pediatric acute liver failure.

    PubMed

    Jain, Vandana; Dhawan, Anil

    2016-10-01

    Liver transplantation (LT) is the only proven treatment for pediatric acute liver failure (PALF). However, over a period of time, spontaneous native liver survival is increasingly reported, making us wonder if we are overtransplanting children with acute liver failure (ALF). An effective prognostic model for PALF would help direct appropriate organ allocation. Only patients who would die would undergo LT, and those who would spontaneously recover would avoid unnecessary LT. Deriving and validating such a model for PALF, however, encompasses numerous challenges. In particular, the heterogeneity of age and etiology in PALF, as well as a lack of understanding of the natural history of the disease, contributed by the availability of LT has led to difficulties in prognostic model development. Several prognostic laboratory variables have been identified, and the incorporation of these variables into scoring systems has been attempted. A reliable targeted prognostic model for ALF in Wilson's disease has been established and externally validated. The roles of physiological, immunological, and metabolomic parameters in prognosis are being investigated. This review discusses the challenges with prognostic modeling in PALF and describes predictive methods that are currently available and in development for the future. Liver Transplantation 22 1418-1430 2016 AASLD. PMID:27343006

  3. [Prognostic factors of localised, locally advanced or metastatic prostate cancer].

    PubMed

    Joly, Florence; Henry-Amar, Michel

    2007-07-01

    In prostate cancer, whatever the stage of the disease, the selection of a treatment strategy is based on prognostic factors. Clinical stage, serum PSA concentration and Gleason score are among the most recognised factors. A combination of these three parameters leads to a score used to define prognostic groups that are routinely used in daily practice. More recently, predictive statistical models have been developed that were associated with nomograms. The objective of nomograms is, for a given patient, to calculate his probability to develop disease extension or relapse based on clinical, biological, histological and therapeutic (radiotherapy, hormonotherapy) data. Such nomograms are not all validated and their application in daily practice is more difficult than that of classical prognostic classifications. Nowadays, the progress and accessibility to novel technologies applied to biology will make possible in the near future the assessment of new prognostic profiles based on genetic and/or proteomic tumour characteristics.

  4. Vascular grading of angiogenesis: prognostic significance in breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, S; Grabau, D A; Sørensen, F B; Bak, M; Vach, W; Rose, C

    2000-01-01

    The study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of angiogenesis by vascular grading of primary breast tumours, and to evaluate the prognostic impact of adding the vascular grade to the Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI). The investigation included 836 patients. The median follow-up time was 11 years and 4 months. The microvessels were immunohistochemically stained by antibodies against CD34. Angiogenesis was graded semiquantitatively by subjective scoring into three groups according to the expected number of microvessels in the most vascular tumour area. The vascular grading between observers was moderately reproduced (κ = 0.59). Vascular grade was significantly associated with axillary node involvement, tumour size, malignancy grade, oestrogen receptor status and histological type. In univariate analyses vascular grade significantly predicted recurrence free survival and overall survival for all patients (P< 0.0001), node-negative patients (P< 0.0001) and node-positive patients (P< 0.0001). Cox multivariate regression analysis showed that vascular grading contributed with independent prognostic value in all patients (P< 0.0001). A prognostic index including the vascular grade had clinical impact for 24% of the patients, who had a shift in prognostic group, as compared to NPI, and implied a better prognostic dissemination. We concluded that the angiogenesis determined by vascular grading has independent prognostic value of clinical relevance for patients with breast cancer. © 2000 Cancer Research Campaign PMID:10646886

  5. Palliative medicine review: prognostication.

    PubMed

    Glare, Paul A; Sinclair, Christian T

    2008-01-01

    Prognostication, along with diagnosis and treatment, is a traditional core clinical skill of the physician. Many patients and families receiving palliative care want information about life expectancy to help plan realistically for their futures. Although underappreciated, prognosis is, or at least should be, part of every clinical decision. Despite this crucial role, expertise in the art and science of prognostication diminished during the twentieth century, due largely to the ascendancy of accurate diagnostic tests and effective therapies. Consequently, "Doctor, how long do I have?" is a question most physicians find unprepared to answer effectively. As we focus on palliative care in the twenty-first century, prognostication will need to be restored as a core clinical proficiency. The discipline of palliative medicine can provide leadership in this direction. This paper begins by discussing a framework for understanding prognosis and how its different domains might be applied to all patients with life limiting illness, although the main focus of the paper is predicting survival in patients with cancer. Examples of prognostic tools are provided, although the subjective assessment of prognosis remains important in the terminally ill. Other issues addressed include: the importance of prognostication in terms of clinical decision-making, discharge planning, and care planning; the impact of prognosis on hospice referrals and patient/family satisfaction; and physicians' willingness to prognosticate. PMID:18370898

  6. The importance of empathy in the enablement of patients attending the Glasgow Homoeopathic Hospital.

    PubMed Central

    Mercer, Stewart W; Reilly, David; Watt, Graham C M

    2002-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Patient enablement in general practice is known to be limited by consultation length. However, the processes within the consultation that lead to enablement are not well understood. AIMS: To investigate patient enablement in a setting where time is less of a constraint than in primary care, in order to determine the importance of other factors in enablement. DESIGN OF STUDY: Exploratory questionnaire-based study. SETTING: Two hundred consecutive outpatients attending four doctors at the Glasgow Homoeopathic Hospital, an NHS-funded integrated complementary and orthodox medicine unit. METHOD: Information was collected on enablement and a range of other factors, including the patients expectations, their perception of the doctors empathy, and the doctors own confidence in the doctor-patient relationship. RESULTS: Although there were many factors that correlated with enablement, multi-regression analysis showed patients expectation, doctor's empathy (as perceived by the patient), and doctor's own confidence in the therapeutic relationship to be the three key factors. Together they accounted for 41% of the variation in enablement, with empathy being the single most important factor (66% of the explained variation in enablement). CONCLUSION: Patient enablement at the Glasgow Homoeopathic Hospital is mainly related to the patients perception of the doctor's empathy. PMID:12434958

  7. Dr. Auzoux's botanical teaching models and medical education at the universities of Glasgow and Aberdeen.

    PubMed

    Olszewski, Margaret Maria

    2011-09-01

    In the 1860s, Dr. Louis Thomas Jérôme Auzoux introduced a set of papier-mâché teaching models intended for use in the botanical classroom. These botanical models quickly made their way into the educational curricula of institutions around the world. Within these institutions, Auzoux's models were principally used to fulfil educational goals, but their incorporation into diverse curricula also suggests they were used to implement agendas beyond botanical instruction. This essay examines the various uses and meanings of Dr. Auzoux's botanical teaching models at the universities of Glasgow and Aberdeen in the nineteenth century. The two main conclusions of this analysis are: (1) investing in prestigious scientific collections was a way for these universities to attract fee-paying students so that better medical accommodation could be provided and (2) models were used to transmit different kinds of botanical knowledge at both universities. The style of botany at the University of Glasgow was offensive and the department there actively embraced and incorporated ideas of the emerging new botany. At Aberdeen, the style of botany was defensive and there was some hesitancy when confronting new botanical ideas.

  8. Health lifestyle behaviour and socio-demographic characteristics. A study of Varna, Glasgow and Edinburgh.

    PubMed

    Uitenbroek, D G; Kerekovska, A; Festchieva, N

    1996-08-01

    In this paper a lifestyle perspective is taken to study the various influences on four health related behaviours, i.e. cigarette smoking, diet behaviour, alcohol use and exercise. Of interest is how these behaviours are distributed over four socio-demographic indicators, i.e. the respondents gender, educational level, employment status and age. As a third factor the respondent's city of residence, Varna in Bulgaria and Glasgow and Edinburgh in Scotland, is taken into consideration. Data collected by telephone from 268 respondents from Varna, 827 respondents from Glasgow and 275 respondents from Edinburgh are considered. Large differences in the prevalence of health behaviours are found, with respondents in Varna behaving least healthily and respondents in Edinburgh behaving most healthily, and this is also true at sub-group level. Alcohol use is the exception, and here the opposite relationship between health behaviour and city of residence is found. Females generally behave more healthily than males, however, this pattern is not consistent for all health behaviours. Better educated and employed respondents behave in a more healthy way compared with less well educated and unemployed respondents and this is true in all three cities, with the difference being particularly large in Scotland. An 'economic' and a 'self-care' explanation are put forward to explain the patterns observed but both explanations are found wanting. It is proposed that integrating various theoretical models is necessary to further develop our understanding of health lifestyle behaviour.

  9. Selling sex: female street prostitution and HIV risk behaviour in Glasgow.

    PubMed

    McKeganey, N; Barnard, M

    1992-01-01

    Female prostitutes have often been seen as a major source of HIV infection. In this paper we report on a study of HIV-related risk behaviour among street prostitutes in Glasgow. This paper is based on street interviews using a standardized schedule with 68 women. We focus on the extent of HIV testing amongst the women, travel, the sexual services provided, the use of condoms with clients and private partners, and the extent of drug injecting and equipment sharing by the women. It is shown that female street prostitution within Glasgow is, at present, unlikely to be associated with significant heterosexual spread of HIV as most commercial sex is with a condom. However, some risk activities are continuing. Additionally, prostitutes report worrying rates of condom failure with clients. It is suggested that attention should switch away from an exclusive focus on women selling sexual services to target the men who purchase sex. These data indicate that much of the pressure for these women to provide unprotected sex comes from their clients.

  10. Prognostics of Power MOSFET

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Celaya, Jose Ramon; Saxena, Abhinav; Vashchenko, Vladislay; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai Frank

    2011-01-01

    This paper demonstrates how to apply prognostics to power MOSFETs (metal oxide field effect transistor). The methodology uses thermal cycling to age devices and Gaussian process regression to perform prognostics. The approach is validated with experiments on 100V power MOSFETs. The failure mechanism for the stress conditions is determined to be die-attachment degradation. Change in ON-state resistance is used as a precursor of failure due to its dependence on junction temperature. The experimental data is augmented with a finite element analysis simulation that is based on a two-transistor model. The simulation assists in the interpretation of the degradation phenomena and SOA (safe operation area) change.

  11. Prognostic Factors in Cholinesterase Inhibitor Poisoning

    PubMed Central

    Sun, In O; Yoon, Hyun Ju; Lee, Kwang Young

    2015-01-01

    Background Organophosphates and carbamates are insecticides that are associated with high human mortality. The purpose of this study is to investigate the prognostic factors affecting survival in patients with cholinesterase inhibitor (CI) poisoning. Material/Methods This study included 92 patients with CI poisoning in the period from January 2005 to August 2013. We divided these patients into 2 groups (survivors vs. non-survivors), compared their clinical characteristics, and analyzed the predictors of survival. Results The mean age of the included patients was 56 years (range, 16–88). The patients included 57 (62%) men and 35 (38%) women. When we compared clinical characteristics between the survivor group (n=81, 88%) and non-survivor group (n=11, 12%), there were no differences in renal function, pancreatic enzymes, or serum cholinesterase level, except for serum bicarbonate level and APACHE II score. The serum bicarbonate level was lower in non-survivors than in survivors (12.45±2.84 vs. 18.36±4.73, P<0.01). The serum APACHE II score was higher in non-survivors than in survivors (24.36±5.22 vs. 12.07±6.67, P<0.01). The development of pneumonia during hospitalization was higher in non-survivors than in survivors (n=9, 82% vs. n=31, 38%, P<0.01). In multiple logistic regression analysis, serum bicarbonate concentration, APACHE II score, and pneumonia during hospitalization were the important prognostic factors in patients with CI poisoning. Conclusions Serum bicarbonate and APACHE II score are useful prognostic factors in patients with CI poisoning. Furthermore, pneumonia during hospitalization was also important in predicting prognosis in patients with CI poisoning. Therefore, prevention and active treatment of pneumonia is important in the management of patients with CI poisoning. PMID:26411989

  12. Do obesity-promoting food environments cluster around socially disadvantaged schools in Glasgow, Scotland?

    PubMed

    Ellaway, Anne; Macdonald, Laura; Lamb, Karen; Thornton, Lukar; Day, Peter; Pearce, Jamie

    2012-11-01

    Increase in the consumption of food and drinks outside the home by adolescents and young people and associations with rising levels of obesity is a significant concern worldwide and it has been suggested that the food environment around schools may be a contributory factor. As few studies have explored this issue in a UK setting, we examined whether different types of food outlets are clustered around public secondary schools in Glasgow, and whether this pattern differed by social disadvantage. We found evidence of clustering of food outlets around schools but a more complex picture in relation to deprivation was observed. Across all schools there were numerous opportunities for pupils to purchase energy dense foods locally and the implications for policy are discussed.

  13. Prognostic Indexes for Brain Metastases: Which Is the Most Powerful?

    SciTech Connect

    Arruda Viani, Gustavo; Bernardes da Silva, Lucas Godoi; Stefano, Eduardo Jose

    2012-07-01

    Purpose: The purpose of the present study was to compare the prognostic indexes (PIs) of patients with brain metastases (BMs) treated with whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) using an artificial neural network. This analysis is important, because it evaluates the prognostic power of each PI to guide clinical decision-making and outcomes research. Methods and Materials: A retrospective prognostic study was conducted of 412 patients with BMs who underwent WBRT between April 1998 and March 2010. The eligibility criteria for patients included having undergone WBRT or WBRT plus neurosurgery. The data were analyzed using the artificial neural network. The input neural data consisted of all prognostic factors included in the 5 PIs (recursive partitioning analysis, graded prognostic assessment [GPA], basic score for BMs, Rotterdam score, and Germany score). The data set was randomly divided into 300 training and 112 testing examples for survival prediction. All 5 PIs were compared using our database of 412 patients with BMs. The sensibility of the 5 indexes to predict survival according to their input variables was determined statistically using receiver operating characteristic curves. The importance of each variable from each PI was subsequently evaluated. Results: The overall 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival rate was 22%, 10.2%, and 5.1%, respectively. All classes of PIs were significantly associated with survival (recursive partitioning analysis, P < .0001; GPA, P < .0001; basic score for BMs, P = .002; Rotterdam score, P = .001; and Germany score, P < .0001). Comparing the areas under the curves, the GPA was statistically most sensitive in predicting survival (GPA, 86%; recursive partitioning analysis, 81%; basic score for BMs, 79%; Rotterdam, 73%; and Germany score, 77%; P < .001). Among the variables included in each PI, the performance status and presence of extracranial metastases were the most important factors. Conclusion: A variety of prognostic models describe the

  14. Asbestos and lung cancer in Glasgow and the west of Scotland.

    PubMed Central

    De Vos Irvine, H; Lamont, D W; Hole, D J; Gillis, C R

    1993-01-01

    OBJECTIVE--To quantify the relation between lung cancer and exposure to asbestos in men in west Scotland and to estimate the proportion of lung cancer which may be attributed to exposure to asbestos. DESIGN--An ecological correlation study of the incidence of lung cancer in men and past asbestos exposure. The unit of analysis was the postcode sector. Correction was made for past cigarette smoking, air pollution, and deprivation. SETTING--The region covered by the west of Scotland cancer registry, containing 2.72 million people and including Glasgow and the lower reaches of the River Clyde, where shipbuilding was once a major industry. SUBJECTS--All men diagnosed with lung cancer between 1975 and 1984 whose residence at the time of registration was within the west of Scotland. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--The population attributable risk for asbestos related lung cancer. RESULTS--An estimated 5.7% (95% confidence interval 2.3 to 9.1%) of all lung cancers in men registered in the west of Scotland during the period 1975-84 were asbestos related, amounting to 1081 cases. CONCLUSIONS--A considerable proportion of cases of lung cancer in men in Glasgow and the west of Scotland from 1975 to 1984 were asbestos related. Most of these may not have been considered for compensation by the Department of Social Security. Given the very small annual number of recorded cases of asbestosis this condition is probably not a prerequisite for the development of asbestos related lung cancer. A heightened awareness of the increasing incidence of asbestos related neoplasms and their more thorough investigation are recommended. PMID:8518676

  15. Out-of-home food outlets and area deprivation: case study in Glasgow, UK

    PubMed Central

    Macintyre, Sally; McKay, Laura; Cummins, Steven; Burns, Cate

    2005-01-01

    Background There is a popular belief that out-of-home eating outlets, which typically serve energy dense food, may be more commonly found in more deprived areas and that this may contribute to higher rates of obesity and related diseases in such areas. Methods We obtained a list of all 1301 out-of-home eating outlets in Glasgow, UK, in 2003 and mapped these at unit postcode level. We categorised them into quintiles of area deprivation using the 2004 Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation and computed mean density of types of outlet (restaurants, fast food restaurants, cafes and takeaways), and all types combined, per 1000 population. We also estimated odds ratios for the presence of any outlets in small areas within the quintiles. Results The density of outlets, and the likelihood of having any outlets, was highest in the second most affluent quintile (Q2) and lowest in the second most deprived quintile (Q4). Mean outlets per 1,000 were 4.02 in Q2, 1.20 in Q4 and 2.03 in Q5. With Q2 as the reference, Odds Ratios for having any outlets were 0.52 (CI 0.32–0.84) in Q1, 0.50 (CI 0.31 – 0.80) in Q4 and 0.61 (CI 0.38 – 0.98) in Q5. Outlets were located in the City Centre, West End, and along arterial roads. Conclusion In Glasgow those living in poorer areas are not more likely to be exposed to out-of-home eating outlets in their neighbourhoods. Health improvement policies need to be based on empirical evidence about the location of fast food outlets in specific national and local contexts, rather than on popular 'factoids'. PMID:16248898

  16. Case Study: A Distance Education Contribution to a Social Strategy To Combat Poverty: Open University Community Education Courses in Glasgow.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Farnes, N. C.

    This project located in Glasgow, Scotland, is concerned with the use of distance teaching for a non-formal community education program that is a component of a social change strategy to combat poverty. The study shows that the use of distance learning courses in non-formal community education is successful in attracting, at a reasonable cost per…

  17. Hegel in Glasgow: Idealists and the Emergence of Adult Education in the West of Scotland, 1866-1927

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hamilton, Robert; Turner, Robert

    2006-01-01

    This paper considers how Hegel's philosophical idealism influenced the thinking and practical activities of four successive holders of the Chair of Moral Philosophy in the University of Glasgow between 1866 and 1927. It argues that their activities were shaped by Hegelian concepts of citizenship, which engendered a commitment to encouraging the…

  18. From Hawaii to Glasgow: The International Network for Learning and Teaching Geography in Higher Education (INLT) Five Years On

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Healey, Mick

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines and reflects on the activities of the International Network for Learning and Teaching Geography in Higher Education (INLT) from its founding at the Association of American Geographers' Annual Conference in Hawaii in 1999 to the post-International Geographical Congress workshop in Glasgow five years later. It provides a context…

  19. Integrating electronic information resources for NHS Glasgow staff at the point of need: a model of interlibrary collaboration and resource sharing.

    PubMed

    Davies, S; Wales, A

    2001-12-01

    The Glasgow NHS Libraries Consortium has harnessed the political imperative of collaboration and the capability of electronic information resources to address inequalities in access to the knowledge base across NHS Glasgow. They have negotiated consortium arrangements to an extensive range of electronic databases and journals which no single Glasgow NHS library could afford independently. A Project Officer was appointed to undertake the administration, technical work and promotion required to build a Web-based electronic library to deliver resources to all NHS Glasgow staff on an equitable basis. Close partnership with online content providers enabled the Project Officer to find solutions to problems caused by authentication systems and license restrictions. These efforts have culminated in the production of a fully integrated virtual library--the NHS Glasgow e-Library--delivering 11 major electronic databases, 440 full-text electronic journals, 48 electronic textbooks and over 5000 journal contents pages. The NHS Glasgow e-Library is without precedent within the NHS in terms of its wealth of resources, and it provides a model for Scotland-wide access to the knowledge base. The sustainability and transferability of the resource is dependent on a number of key areas-maintenance, user training, evaluation, IT infrastructure and ongoing collaboration and unification. Ongoing research will monitor how far the NHS Glasgow e-Library has strengthened the connection between research evidence and clinical practice.

  20. Severe acute pancreatitis: Pathogenetic aspects and prognostic factors

    PubMed Central

    Mofleh, Ibrahim A Al

    2008-01-01

    Approximately 20% of patients with acute pancreatitis develop a severe disease associated with complications and high risk of mortality. The purpose of this study is to review pathogenesis and prognostic factors of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). An extensive medline search was undertaken with focusing on pathogenesis, complications and prognostic evaluation of SAP. Cytokines and other inflammatory markers play a major role in the pathogenesis and course of SAP and can be used as prognostic markers in its early phase. Other markers such as simple prognostic scores have been found to be as effective as multifactorial scoring systems (MFSS) at 48 h with the advantage of simplicity, efficacy, low cost, accuracy and early prediction of SAP. Recently, several laboratory markers including hematocrit, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), creatinine, matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) and serum amyloid A (SAA) have been used as early predictors of severity within the first 24 h. The last few years have witnessed a tremendous progress in understanding the pathogenesis and predicting the outcome of SAP. In this review we classified the prognostic markers into predictors of severity, pancreatic necrosis (PN), infected PN (IPN) and mortality. PMID:18205255

  1. Item-Level Psychometrics of the Glasgow Outcome Scale: Extended Structured Interviews.

    PubMed

    Hong, Ickpyo; Li, Chih-Ying; Velozo, Craig A

    2016-04-01

    The Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOSE) structured interview captures critical components of activities and participation, including home, shopping, work, leisure, and family/friend relationships. Eighty-nine community dwelling adults with mild-moderate traumatic brain injury (TBI) were recruited (average = 2.7 year post injury). Nine items of the 19 items were used for the psychometrics analysis purpose. Factor analysis and item-level psychometrics were investigated using the Rasch partial-credit model. Although the principal components analysis of residuals suggests that a single measurement factor dominates the measure, the instrument did not meet the factor analysis criteria. Five items met the rating scale criteria. Eight items fit the Rasch model. The instrument demonstrated low person reliability (0.63), low person strata (2.07), and a slight ceiling effect. The GOSE demonstrated limitations in precisely measuring activities/participation for individuals after TBI. Future studies should examine the impact of the low precision of the GOSE on effect size. PMID:27504879

  2. Application of a water quality model in the White Cart water catchment, Glasgow, UK.

    PubMed

    Liu, S; Tucker, P; Mansell, M; Hursthouse, A

    2003-03-01

    Water quality models of urban systems have previously focused on point source (sewerage system) inputs. Little attention has been given to diffuse inputs and research into diffuse pollution has been largely confined to agriculture sources. This paper reports on new research that is aimed at integrating diffuse inputs into an urban water quality model. An integrated model is introduced that is made up of four modules: hydrology, contaminant point sources, nutrient cycling and leaching. The hydrology module, T&T consists of a TOPMODEL (a TOPography-based hydrological MODEL), which simulates runoff from pervious areas and a two-tank model, which simulates runoff from impervious urban areas. Linked into the two-tank model, the contaminant point source module simulates the overflow from the sewerage system in heavy rain. The widely known SOILN (SOIL Nitrate model) is the basis of nitrogen cycle module. Finally, the leaching module consists of two functions: the production function and the transfer function. The production function is based on SLIM (Solute Leaching Intermediate Model) while the transfer function is based on the 'flushing hypothesis' which postulates a relationship between contaminant concentrations in the receiving water course and the extent to which the catchment is saturated. This paper outlines the modelling methodology and the model structures that have been developed. An application of this model in the White Cart catchment (Glasgow) is also included.

  3. Drug therapy in HIV infection--fourth international congress. 8-12 November 1998, Glasgow, Scotland.

    PubMed

    Wainberg, M A

    1999-01-01

    This meeting was one of a series which is held in Glasgow on a biannual basis. The major themes of the conference were the use of combination therapy to reduce viral replication in HIV infected individuals and the successes and failures of various treatment regimens; the issue of viral sequestration in sanctuary sites over long periods in the context of non-susceptibility to antiviral therapy due to viral latency and other considerations; drug resistance to antiviral therapy and how to prevent this problem from occurring; immune-based therapeutic approaches in the treatment of HIV disease; and, the development of treatment strategies for individuals who have failed on their initial antiviral regimens. The majority of delegates at this conference were HIV clinicians involved in direct patient contact. The meeting also included the participation of HIV community workers, representatives of the pharmaceutical industry, as well as research scientists concerned with basic mechanisms of HIV pathogenesis, drug resistance and other issues. Most of the presentations were from academic physicians involved in a variety of HIV clinical trials, although pharmaceutical scientists, who specialize in the development of techniques to monitor drug resistance, also featured prominently in the program. Both oral papers and poster sessions were featured.

  4. Clinical features and epidemiology of malignant pleural mesothelioma in west Glasgow 1987-1992.

    PubMed

    McLean, A N; Patel, K R

    1997-04-01

    Malignant pleural mesothelioma is almost exclusively caused by exposure to asbestos dust. Recent epidemiological studies have suggested that the national incidence of disease may continue to rise until 2020 and that asbestos exposure in the building trade may be replacing shipyard related exposure as the main source of disease. The objective of the study was to determine if the incidence of malignant pleural mesothelioma was rising in the west of Glasgow from 1987-1992 and whether there had been a change in clinical features compared to previous studies from the same population. Case notes identified from coded returns and the local cancer registry were retrospectively examined: 144 cases were identified. This is an increase in incidence of over 50% compared to the previous study but the yearly incidence did not rise over the period studied. The clinical features and survival times have not changed since previous studies: median survival remains 30 weeks. Only three patients were given definitive treatment reflecting the lack of effective therapy. We suggest that the incidence of mesothelioma in the population studied may already have peaked resulting from the decline in the local shipyard industry over 20 years ago. Non-shipyard sources of asbestos exposure may be less important in this area.

  5. Drug therapy in HIV infection--fourth international congress. 8-12 November 1998, Glasgow, Scotland.

    PubMed

    Wainberg, M A

    1999-01-01

    This meeting was one of a series which is held in Glasgow on a biannual basis. The major themes of the conference were the use of combination therapy to reduce viral replication in HIV infected individuals and the successes and failures of various treatment regimens; the issue of viral sequestration in sanctuary sites over long periods in the context of non-susceptibility to antiviral therapy due to viral latency and other considerations; drug resistance to antiviral therapy and how to prevent this problem from occurring; immune-based therapeutic approaches in the treatment of HIV disease; and, the development of treatment strategies for individuals who have failed on their initial antiviral regimens. The majority of delegates at this conference were HIV clinicians involved in direct patient contact. The meeting also included the participation of HIV community workers, representatives of the pharmaceutical industry, as well as research scientists concerned with basic mechanisms of HIV pathogenesis, drug resistance and other issues. Most of the presentations were from academic physicians involved in a variety of HIV clinical trials, although pharmaceutical scientists, who specialize in the development of techniques to monitor drug resistance, also featured prominently in the program. Both oral papers and poster sessions were featured. PMID:16180161

  6. A health impact assessment of the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow

    PubMed Central

    McCartney, G.; Palmer, S.; Winterbottom, J.; Jones, R.; Kendall, R.; Booker, D.

    2010-01-01

    Summary Objective To influence the planning of the 2014 Commonwealth Games such that the positive impacts are maximized and the negative impacts are mitigated. Study design Participatory health impact assessment (HIA). Methods A participatory HIA was performed using standard World Health Organization methods. A scoping event was held to involve decision makers in the process and to identify the key areas for consideration. A large community engagement exercise and a systematic review were conducted as part of the evidence-gathering phase. The results of the HIA were reported to the key decision makers involved in the Glasgow City Council legacy strategy. Results The likely net health impact of hosting the Commonwealth Games was uncertain. It was suggested that the main mechanisms through which impacts were likely to be felt were: the economy; civic pride; engagement in decision making; the provision of new infrastructure; and participation in cultural events. A series of recommendations was produced in order to maximize positive health benefits and mitigate negative impacts. Conclusions HIA is a useful tool for engaging communities and decision makers in the public health agenda. HIAs of major multi-sport events are limited by a lack of quality evidence and the inability to predict impacts reliably. PMID:20630546

  7. Updates from the British Association of Dermatologists 89th Annual Meeting, 7-10 July 2009, Glasgow, U.K.

    PubMed

    Alexandroff, A B; Flohr, C; Johnston, G A

    2010-07-01

    This is a synopsis of the significant research and clinical papers presented at the British Association of Dermatologists meeting held during 7-10 July 2009 in Glasgow, U.K. The conference and satellite symposia highlighted the recent biological, epidemiological and therapeutic advances in dermatology. This report is not meant as a substitute for reading the conference proceedings and related references quoted in this article.

  8. Role of decompressive surgery in the management of severe head injuries: prognostic factors and patient selection.

    PubMed

    Ucar, Tanju; Akyuz, Mahmut; Kazan, Saim; Tuncer, Recai

    2005-11-01

    Decompressive surgery or craniectomy (DC) is a treatment option, which should be considered when the intracranial pressure (ICP) cannot be treated by conservative methods. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the benefits of decompressive craniectomy in patients with intractable posttraumatic intracranial hypertension and to evaluate the patient selection criteria for this management protocol. In this study, 100 patients with severe head injuries were involved. All patients were treated according to the European Brain Injury Consortium (EBIC) guidelines for severe head injuries and were assessed based on individual initial Glasgow Coma Scores (GCS), age, Glasgow Outcome Score (GOS), presence of systemic injury, changes in ICP, presence of mass lesion and the right timing for DC. All patients presented with a GCS of 8 or below. Based on their initial GCS, the patients were divided in two groups of 60 (group I with GCS 4-5) and 40 (group II with GCS 6-8) in each, respectively. Prognosis was evaluated according to the (GOS). After treatment with DC, 84 of the patients (84%) showed unfavorable and 16 (16%) showed favorable outcomes. In group I, 58 patients (96.6%) showed unfavorable and two (3.4%) showed favorable outcomes. In group II, 26 (65%) patients showed unfavorable and 14 (25%) showed favorable outcomes. The importance of initial GCS and age in patient outcomes were statistically significant. The presence of systemic injuries or mass lesions in outcomes were not statistically significant. Based on our findings, we conclude that patients with Glasgow Coma Scores of 6-8 are the best candidates for DC treatment.

  9. Effects of Glasgow Outcome Scale Misclassification on Traumatic Brain Injury Clinical Trials

    PubMed Central

    Lu, Juan; Murray, Gordon D.; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; Butcher, Isabella; Mchugh, Gillian S.; Lingsma, Hester; Mushkudiani, Nino; Choi, Sung; Maas, Andrew I.R.

    2008-01-01

    Abstract The Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) is the primary endpoint for efficacy analysis of clinical trials in traumatic brain injury (TBI). Accurate and consistent assessment of outcome after TBI is essential to the evaluation of treatment results, particularly in the context of multicenter studies and trials. The inconsistent measurement or interobserver variation on GOS outcome, or for that matter, on any outcome scales, may adversely affect the sensitivity to detect treatment effects in clinical trial. The objective of this study is to examine effects of nondifferential misclassification of the widely used five-category GOS outcome scale and in particular to assess the impact of this misclassification on detecting a treatment effect and statistical power. We followed two approaches. First, outcome differences were analyzed before and after correction for misclassification using a dataset of 860 patients with severe brain injury randomly sampled from two TBI trials with known differences in outcome. Second, the effects of misclassification on outcome distribution and statistical power were analyzed in simulation studies on a hypothetical 800-patient dataset. Three potential patterns of nondifferential misclassification (random, upward and downward) on the dichotomous GOS outcome were analyzed, and the power of finding treatments differences was investigated in detail. All three patterns of misclassification reduce the power of detecting the true treatment effect and therefore lead to a reduced estimation of the true efficacy. The magnitude of such influence not only depends on the size of the misclassification, but also on the magnitude of the treatment effect. In conclusion, nondifferential misclassification directly reduces the power of finding the true treatment effect. An awareness of this procedural error and methods to reduce misclassification should be incorporated in TBI clinical trials. PMID:18578634

  10. Quaternary geologic map of the Glasgow 1° x 2° quadrangle, Montana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fullerton, David S.; Colton, Roger B.; Bush, Charles A.

    2012-01-01

    The Glasgow quadrangle encompasses approximately 16,084 km2 (6,210 mi2). The northern boundary is the Montana/Saskatchewan (U.S./Canada) boundary. The quadrangle is in the Northern Plains physiographic province and it includes the Boundary Plateau, Peerless Plateau, and Larb Hills. The primary river is the Milk River. The map units are surficial deposits and materials, not landforms. Deposits that comprise some constructional landforms (for example, ground-moraine deposits, end-moraine deposits, and stagnation-moraine deposits, all composed of till) are distinguished for purposes of reconstruction of glacial history. Surficial deposits and materials are assigned to 23 map units on the basis of genesis, age, lithology or composition, texture or particle size, and other physical, chemical, and engineering characteristics. It is not a map of soils that are recognized in pedology or agronomy. Rather, it is a generalized map of soils recognized in engineering geology, or of substrata or parent materials in which pedologic or agronomic soils are formed. Glaciotectonic (ice-thrust) structures and deposits are mapped separately, represented by a symbol. The surficial deposits are glacial, ice-contact, glaciofluvial, alluvial, lacustrine, eolian, colluvial, and mass-movement deposits. Residuum, a surficial material, also is mapped. Till of late Wisconsin age is represented by three map units. Till of Illinoian age is also represented locally but is widespread in the subsurface. This map was prepared to serve as a database for compilation of a Quaternary geologic map of the United States and Canada (scale 1:1,000,000). Letter symbols for the map units are those used for the same units in the Quaternary Geologic Atlas of the United States map series.

  11. A lead isotopic study of the human bioaccessibility of lead in urban soils from Glasgow, Scotland.

    PubMed

    Farmer, John G; Broadway, Andrew; Cave, Mark R; Wragg, Joanna; Fordyce, Fiona M; Graham, Margaret C; Ngwenya, Bryne T; Bewley, Richard J F

    2011-11-01

    The human bioaccessibility of lead (Pb) in Pb-contaminated soils from the Glasgow area was determined by the Unified Bioaccessibility Research Group of Europe (BARGE) Method (UBM), an in vitro physiologically based extraction scheme that mimics the chemical environment of the human gastrointestinal system and contains both stomach and intestine compartments. For 27 soils ranging in total Pb concentration from 126 to 2160 mg kg(-1) (median 539 mg kg(-1)), bioaccessibility as determined by the 'stomach' simulation (pH ~1.5) was 46-1580 mg kg(-1), equivalent to 23-77% (mean 52%) of soil total Pb concentration. The corresponding bioaccessibility data for the 'stomach+intestine' simulation (pH ~6.3) were 6-623 mg kg(-1) and 2-42% (mean 22%) of soil Pb concentration. The soil (206)Pb/(207)Pb ratios ranged from 1.057 to 1.175. Three-isotope plots of (208)Pb/(206)Pb against (206)Pb/(207)Pb demonstrated that (206)Pb/(207)Pb ratios were intermediate between values for source end-member extremes of imported Australian Pb ore (1.04)--used in the manufacture of alkyl Pb compounds (1.06-1.10) formerly added to petrol--and indigenous Pb ores/coal (1.17-1.19). The (206)Pb/(207)Pb ratios of the UBM 'stomach' extracts were similar (<0.01 difference) to those of the soil for 26 of the 27 samples (r=0.993, p<0.001) and lower in 24 of them. A slight preference for lower (206)Pb/(207)Pb ratio was discernible in the UBM. However, the source of Pb appeared to be less important in determining the extent of UBM-bioaccessible Pb than the overall soil total Pb concentration and the soil phases with which the Pb was associated. The significant phases identified in a subset of samples were carbonates, manganese oxides, iron-aluminium oxyhydroxides and clays.

  12. Prognostic factors and risk stratification in chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

    PubMed

    Parikh, Sameer A; Shanafelt, Tait D

    2016-04-01

    There is considerable heterogeneity in the clinical outcome of patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). While some patients live for decades without any therapy, others die within years of diagnosis despite multiple treatments. To better counsel newly diagnosed CLL patients about their disease course, the Rai and Binet staging systems were developed four decades ago. A deeper understanding of the biologic and molecular aberrations contributing to the pathogenesis of CLL led to identification of novel prognostic markers such as immunoglobulin heavy-chain variable gene (IGHV) mutation status, leukemia-cell expression of CD38, ZAP-70, and CD49d, and cytogenetic abnormalities detected by fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH). The advent of next-generation sequencing has provided unprecedented insights into the subclonal architecture of CLL and its impact on disease progression and survival. More recently, integrated prognostic scoring systems that incorporate clinical, biologic and genetic characteristics into a single risk score have been developed and appear to improve the accuracy of prognostication for individual patients. This review summarizes the state-of-the-art prognostic factors and will guide the practicing clinician in their care of patients with CLL. PMID:27040701

  13. In early returns scoring scores big.

    PubMed

    Butman, Samuel M

    2016-07-01

    A scoring or cutting balloon is always useful in preventing slippage during therapy of in-stent restenosis. A drug-coated scoring balloon for in-stent restenosis may be an alternative to a drug-coated balloon Definitive comparison trials are needed and likely to help define their exact role in patients with in-stent restenosis. PMID:27400636

  14. A Multi-Marker Prognostic Assay for Primary Cutaneous Melanoma

    PubMed Central

    Kashani-Sabet, Mohammed; Venna, Suraj; Nosrati, Mehdi; Rangel, Javier; Sucker, Antje; Egberts, Friederike; Baehner, Frederick L.; Simko, Jeff; Leong, Stanley P.L.; Haqq, Chris; Hauschild, Axel; Schadendorf, Dirk; Miller, James R.; Sagebiel, Richard W.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose To determine the prognostic significance of a multi-marker assay incorporating expression levels of three molecular markers in primary cutaneous melanoma. Experimental Design We assessed expression levels of NCOA3, SPP1, and RGS1 using immunohistochemical analysis in a tissue microarray cohort of 395 patients. For each marker, we identified optimal cut-points for expression intensity to predict disease-specific survival (DSS) and, as a secondary endpoint, sentinel lymph node (SLN) status. The cumulative over-expression of all three markers was embodied in a multi-marker index, and its prognostic impact on DSS and SLN status was assessed using Cox regression, Kaplan-Meier analysis, and logistic regression. The prognostic impact of this multi-marker assay on DSS was assessed in an independent cohort of 141 patients, in which marker expression levels were scored using immunohistochemical analysis of stained tissue sections. Results Increasing multi-marker index scores were significantly predictive of reduced DSS and increased SLN metastasis in the 395-patient cohort. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed multi-marker expression scores as an independent predictor of SLN status (P=0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed the independent impact of the multi-marker index on DSS (P<0.001). The multi-marker index was the most significant factor predicting DSS, when compared to other clinical and histological factors, including SLN status (P=0.002). Multi-marker expression scores were also the most significantly predictive of DSS in the independent cohort (P=0.01). Conclusions These results describe a multi-marker assay with independent prognostic impact on the prediction of survival associated with melanoma in two distinct cohorts. PMID:19887476

  15. ED disposition of the Glasgow Coma Scale 13 to 15 traumatic brain injury patient: analysis of the Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in TBI study☆,☆☆

    PubMed Central

    Adeoye, Opeolu; Lindsell, Christopher J.; Hart, Kimberly W.; Pancioli, Arthur; McMullan, Jason T.; Yue, John K.; Nishijima, Daniel K.; Gordon, Wayne A.; Valadka, Alex B.; Okonkwo, David O.; Lingsma, Hester F.; Maas, Andrew I.R.

    2014-01-01

    Objective Mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) patients are frequently admitted to high levels of care despite limited evidence suggesting benefit. Such decisions may contribute to the significant cost of caring for mTBI patients. Understanding the factors that drive disposition decision making and how disposition is associated with outcomes is necessary for developing an evidence-base supporting disposition decisions. We evaluated factors associated with emergency department triage of mTBI patients to 1 of 3 levels of care: home, inpatient floor, or intensive care unit (ICU). Methods This multicenter, prospective, cohort study included patients with isolated head trauma, a cranial computed tomography as part of routine care, and a Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score of 13 to 15. Data analysis was performed using multinomial logistic regression. Results Of the 304 patients included, 167 (55%) were discharged home, 76 (25%) were admitted to the inpatient floor, and 61 (20%) were admitted to the ICU. In the multivariable model, admission to the ICU, compared with floor admission, varied by study site, odds ratio (OR) 0.18 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.06–0.57); antiplatelet/anticoagulation therapy, OR 7.46 (95% CI, 1.79–31.13); skull fracture, OR 7.60 (95% CI, 2.44–23.73); and lower GCS, OR 2.36 (95% CI, 1.05–5.30). No difference in outcome was observed between the 3 levels of care. Conclusion Clinical characteristics and local practice patterns contribute to mTBI disposition decisions. Level of care was not associated with outcomes. Intracranial hemorrhage, GCS 13 to 14, skull fracture, and current antiplatelet/anticoagulant therapy influenced disposition decisions. PMID:24857248

  16. Neighbourhood demolition, relocation and health. A qualitative longitudinal study of housing-led urban regeneration in Glasgow, UK

    PubMed Central

    Egan, Matt; Lawson, Louise; Kearns, Ade; Conway, Ellie; Neary, Joanne

    2015-01-01

    We conducted a qualitative longitudinal study to explore how adult residents of disadvantaged urban neighbourhoods (Glasgow, UK) experienced neighbourhood demolition and relocation. Data from 23 households was collected in 2011 and 2012. Some participants described moves to new or improved homes in different neighbourhoods as beneficial to their and their families’ wellbeing. Others suggested that longstanding illnesses and problems with the new home and/or neighbourhood led to more negative experiences. Individual-level contextual differences, home and neighbourhood-level factors and variations in intervention implementation influence the experiences of residents involved in relocation programmes. PMID:25814338

  17. Multigene prognostic tests in breast cancer: past, present, future.

    PubMed

    Győrffy, Balázs; Hatzis, Christos; Sanft, Tara; Hofstatter, Erin; Aktas, Bilge; Pusztai, Lajos

    2015-01-27

    There is growing consensus that multigene prognostic tests provide useful complementary information to tumor size and grade in estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers. The tests primarily rely on quantification of ER and proliferation-related genes and combine these into multivariate prediction models. Since ER-negative cancers tend to have higher proliferation rates, the prognostic value of current multigene tests in these cancers is limited. First-generation prognostic signatures (Oncotype DX, MammaPrint, Genomic Grade Index) are substantially more accurate to predict recurrence within the first 5 years than in later years. This has become a limitation with the availability of effective extended adjuvant endocrine therapies. Newer tests (Prosigna, EndoPredict, Breast Cancer Index) appear to possess better prognostic value for late recurrences while also remaining predictive of early relapse. Some clinical prediction problems are more difficult to solve than others: there are no clinically useful prognostic signatures for ER-negative cancers, and drug-specific treatment response predictors also remain elusive. Emerging areas of research involve the development of immune gene signatures that carry modest but significant prognostic value independent of proliferation and ER status and represent candidate predictive markers for immune-targeted therapies. Overall metrics of tumor heterogeneity and genome integrity (for example, homologue recombination deficiency score) are emerging as potential new predictive markers for platinum agents. The recent expansion of high-throughput technology platforms including low-cost sequencing of circulating and tumor-derived DNA and RNA and rapid reliable quantification of microRNA offers new opportunities to build extended prediction models across multiplatform data.

  18. Unravelling the Glasgow effect: The relationship between accumulative bio- psychosocial stress, stress reactivity and Scotland's health problems.

    PubMed

    Cowley, Joe; Kiely, John; Collins, Dave

    2016-12-01

    To date, multiple hypotheses have been proposed for the Scottish effect and, more specifically, Glasgow's high mortality rate and the associated Glasgow effect. Previous authors have highlighted the improbability of a single factor as responsible for this effect with seventeen possible hypotheses presented. These have ranged from socio-economic factors, lifestyle and cultural factors such as sectarianism, and political and economic factors. Although these may all be contributory factors to this paradox, the underpinning reasons for the observed effect remain relatively unexplained. In this paper, we suggest that the compounding effect of a unique blend of accumulating life stressors may predispose Scots, and particularly socially-disadvantaged Glaswegians, to a wide-range of health disorders. In short, a confluence of social, environmental, attitudinal and cultural stressors perhaps combine to negatively influence biological health. Future directions should consider the stress remediating role of physical activity, and the problems presented by barriers to participation in physical activity and exercise during key transitional stages of life.

  19. Unravelling the Glasgow effect: The relationship between accumulative bio- psychosocial stress, stress reactivity and Scotland's health problems.

    PubMed

    Cowley, Joe; Kiely, John; Collins, Dave

    2016-12-01

    To date, multiple hypotheses have been proposed for the Scottish effect and, more specifically, Glasgow's high mortality rate and the associated Glasgow effect. Previous authors have highlighted the improbability of a single factor as responsible for this effect with seventeen possible hypotheses presented. These have ranged from socio-economic factors, lifestyle and cultural factors such as sectarianism, and political and economic factors. Although these may all be contributory factors to this paradox, the underpinning reasons for the observed effect remain relatively unexplained. In this paper, we suggest that the compounding effect of a unique blend of accumulating life stressors may predispose Scots, and particularly socially-disadvantaged Glaswegians, to a wide-range of health disorders. In short, a confluence of social, environmental, attitudinal and cultural stressors perhaps combine to negatively influence biological health. Future directions should consider the stress remediating role of physical activity, and the problems presented by barriers to participation in physical activity and exercise during key transitional stages of life. PMID:27512652

  20. The Apgar Score.

    PubMed

    2015-10-01

    The Apgar score provides an accepted and convenient method for reporting the status of the newborn infant immediately after birth and the response to resuscitation if needed. The Apgar score alone cannot be considered as evidence of, or a consequence of, asphyxia; does not predict individual neonatal mortality or neurologic outcome; and should not be used for that purpose. An Apgar score assigned during resuscitation is not equivalent to a score assigned to a spontaneously breathing infant. The American Academy of Pediatrics and the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists encourage use of an expanded Apgar score reporting form that accounts for concurrent resuscitative interventions.

  1. Prognostic factors in ovarian cancer.

    PubMed

    Friedlander, M L

    1998-06-01

    There is obvious merit in being able to accurately predict outcome and tailor treatment according to individual risk and potential for benefit. Epithelial ovarian cancers are characterized by a broad spectrum of biological behavior ranging from tumors that have an excellent prognosis and high likelihood of cure to those that progress rapidly and have a very poor prognosis. This wide clinical spectrum is partly reflected by a number of clinicopathological prognostic variables which include International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage, histologic subtype and grade, volume of residual tumor remaining after surgical resection, performance status, and age. There has been increasing interest by many groups to incorporate the independent prognostic variables into multivariate models that could better predict outcome. This approach does appear to allow the identification of different prognostic subsets and requires confirmation in prospective studies. There has been, and there continues to be a lot of effort in identifying new prognostic factors that have a biologic rationale and these will be discussed. Most of these new prognostic factors have not been subjected to rigorous testing and this will be clearly necessary before they find clinical application. This is an area that is rapidly evolving with the increased understanding of the molecular basis for ovarian carcinogenesis and progression coupled with technological advances such as DNA arrays and automated polymerase chain reaction. We are at the threshold of developing a new and more objective as well as rational approach to predict prognosis and response to therapy.

  2. Predicting outcome after traumatic brain injury: practical prognostic models based on large cohort of international patients

    PubMed Central

    2008-01-01

    Objective To develop and validate practical prognostic models for death at 14 days and for death or severe disability six months after traumatic brain injury. Design Multivariable logistic regression to select variables that were independently associated with two patient outcomes. Two models designed: “basic” model (demographic and clinical variables only) and “CT” model (basic model plus results of computed tomography). The models were subsequently developed for high and low-middle income countries separately. Setting Medical Research Council (MRC) CRASH Trial. Subjects 10 008 patients with traumatic brain injury. Models externally validated in a cohort of 8509. Results The basic model included four predictors: age, Glasgow coma scale, pupil reactivity, and the presence of major extracranial injury. The CT model also included the presence of petechial haemorrhages, obliteration of the third ventricle or basal cisterns, subarachnoid bleeding, midline shift, and non-evacuated haematoma. In the derivation sample the models showed excellent discrimination (C statistic above 0.80). The models showed good calibration graphically. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test also indicated good calibration, except for the CT model in low-middle income countries. External validation for unfavourable outcome at six months in high income countries showed that basic and CT models had good discrimination (C statistic 0.77 for both models) but poorer calibration. Conclusion Simple prognostic models can be used to obtain valid predictions of relevant outcomes in patients with traumatic brain injury. PMID:18270239

  3. Heart failure prognostic model.

    PubMed

    Axente, L; Sinescu, C; Bazacliu, G

    2011-05-15

    Heart failure (HF) is a common, costly, disabling and deadly syndrome. Heart failure is a progressive disease characterized by high prevalence in society, significantly reducing physical and mental health, frequent hospitalization and high mortality (50% of the patients survive up to 4 years after the diagnosis, the annual mortality varying from 5% to 75%). The purpose of this study is to develop a prognostic model with easily obtainable variables for patients with heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS. Our lot included 101 non-consecutive hospitalized patients with heart failure diagnosis. It included 49.5% women having the average age of 71.23 years (starting from 40 up to 91 years old) and the roughly estimated period for monitoring was 35.1 months (5-65 months). Survival data were available for all patients and the median survival duration was of 44.0 months. A large number of variables (demographic, etiologic, co morbidity, clinical, echocardiograph, ECG, laboratory and medication) were evaluated. We performed a complex statistical analysis, studying: survival curve, cumulative hazard, hazard function, lifetime distribution and density function, meaning residual life time, Ln S (t) vs. t and Ln(H) t vs. Ln (t). The Cox multiple regression model was used in order to determine the major factors that allow the forecasting survival and their regression coefficients: age (0.0369), systolic blood pressure (-0.0219), potassium (0.0570), sex (-0.3124) and the acute myocardial infarction (0.2662). DISCUSSION. Our model easily incorporates obtainable variables that may be available in any hospital, accurately predicting survival of the heart failure patients and enables risk stratification in a few hours after the patients' presentation. Our model is derived from a sample of patients hospitalized in an emergency department of cardiology, some with major life-altering co morbidities. The benefit of being aware of the prognosis of these patients with high risk is extremely

  4. Towards Prognostics of Electrolytic Capacitors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Celaya, Jose R.; Kulkarni, Chetan; Biswas, Gautam; Goegel, Kai

    2011-01-01

    A remaining useful life prediction algorithm and degradation model for electrolytic capacitors is presented. Electrolytic capacitors are used in several applications ranging from power supplies on critical avionics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. These devices are known for their low reliability and given their criticality in electronics subsystems they are a good candidate for component level prognostics and health management research. Prognostics provides a way to assess remaining useful life of a capacitor based on its current state of health and its anticipated future usage and operational conditions. In particular, experimental results of an accelerated aging test under electrical stresses are presented. The capacitors used in this test form the basis for a remaining life prediction algorithm where a model of the degradation process is suggested. This preliminary remaining life prediction algorithm serves as a demonstration of how prognostics methodologies could be used for electrolytic capacitors.

  5. Development and Validation of a New Prognostic System for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Spolverato, Gaya; Pawlik, Timothy M.; Huo, Teh-la; Lee, Yun-Hsuan; Frigo, Anna Chiara; Giacomin, Anna; Giannini, Edoardo G.; Ciccarese, Francesca; Piscaglia, Fabio; Rapaccini, Gian Lodovico; Caturelli, Eugenio; Zoli, Marco; Borzio, Franco; Cabibbo, Giuseppe; Sacco, Rodolfo; Morisco, Filomena; Biasini, Elisabetta; Foschi, Francesco Giuseppe; Gasbarrini, Antonio; Svegliati Baroni, Gianluca; Virdone, Roberto; Trevisani, Franco; Cillo, Umberto

    2016-01-01

    Background Prognostic assessment in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains controversial. Using the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database as a training set, we sought to develop and validate a new prognostic system for patients with HCC. Methods and Findings Prospective collected databases from Italy (training cohort, n = 3,628; internal validation cohort, n = 1,555) and Taiwan (external validation cohort, n = 2,651) were used to develop the ITA.LI.CA prognostic system. We first defined ITA.LI.CA stages (0, A, B1, B2, B3, C) using only tumor characteristics (largest tumor diameter, number of nodules, intra- and extrahepatic macroscopic vascular invasion, extrahepatic metastases). A parametric multivariable survival model was then used to calculate the relative prognostic value of ITA.LI.CA tumor stage, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, Child–Pugh score (CPS), and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in predicting individual survival. Based on the model results, an ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score (from 0 to 13 points) was constructed, and its prognostic power compared with that of other integrated systems (BCLC, HKLC, MESIAH, CLIP, JIS). Median follow-up was 58 mo for Italian patients (interquartile range, 26–106 mo) and 39 mo for Taiwanese patients (interquartile range, 12–61 mo). The ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score showed optimal discrimination and calibration abilities in Italian patients. Observed median survival in the training and internal validation sets was 57 and 61 mo, respectively, in quartile 1 (ITA.LI.CA score ≤ 1), 43 and 38 mo in quartile 2 (ITA.LI.CA score 2–3), 23 and 23 mo in quartile 3 (ITA.LI.CA score 4–5), and 9 and 8 mo in quartile 4 (ITA.LI.CA score > 5). Observed and predicted median survival in the training and internal validation sets largely coincided. Although observed and predicted survival estimations were significantly lower (log-rank test, p < 0.001) in Italian than in Taiwanese

  6. Stability of emotionality scores.

    PubMed

    Campos, A; Sueiro, E

    1991-12-01

    We hypothesized the stability of scores on emotionality given by 111 young adults, whose mean age was 16.6 yr, 132 adults, whose mean age was 29.9 yr., and 48 older adults, whose mean age was 53.3 yr. Significant correlations were obtained between scores given to 210 words across age and sex groups. Pearson correlations were calculated over words and not over subjects. The correlations between scores of young people and adults were .90, between young and older people .80, and between adults and older people .87. Men's and women's scores correlated .89.

  7. Interleukin-6 as a Prognostic Biomarker in Ruptured Intracranial Aneurysms

    PubMed Central

    Kao, Hung-Wen; Kuo, Chen-Ling; Huang, Ching-Shan; Tseng, Wan-Min; Lin, Ching-Po

    2015-01-01

    Background Interleukin-6 (IL-6), a proinflammatory cytokine, was found to surge in the cerebral spinal fluid after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). We hypothesized that the plasma level of IL-6 could be an independent biomarker in predicting clinical outcome of patients with ruptured intracranial aneurysm. Methods We prospectively included 53 consecutive patients treated with platinum coil embolization of the ruptured intracranial aneurysm. Plasma IL-6 levels were measured in the blood samples at the orifices of the aneurysms and from peripheral veins. The outcome measure was the modified Rankin Scale one month after SAH. Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the associations between the plasma IL-6 levels and the neurological outcome. Results Significant risk factors for the poor outcome were old age, low Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) on day 0, high Fisher grades, and high aneurysmal and venous IL-6 levels in univariate analyses. Aneurysmal IL-6 levels showed modest to moderate correlations with GCS on day 0, vasospasm grade and Fisher grade. A strong correlation was found between the aneurysmal and the corresponding venous IL-6 levels (ρ = 0.721; P<0.001). In the multiple logistic regression models, the poor 30-day mRS was significantly associated with high aneurysmal IL-6 level (OR, 17.97; 95% CI, 1.51–214.33; P = 0.022) and marginally associated with high venous IL-6 level (OR, 12.71; 95% CI, 0.90–180.35; P = 0.022) after adjusting for dichotomized age, GCS on day 0, and vasospasm and Fisher grades. Conclusions The plasma level of IL-6 is an independent prognostic biomarker that could be used to aid in the identification of patients at high-risk of poor neurological outcome after rupture of the intracranial aneurysm. PMID:26176774

  8. [Scoring systems in intensive care medicine : principles, models, application and limits].

    PubMed

    Fleig, V; Brenck, F; Wolff, M; Weigand, M A

    2011-10-01

    Scoring systems are used in all diagnostic areas of medicine. Several parameters are evaluated and rated with points according to their value in order to simplify a complex clinical situation with a score. The application ranges from the classification of disease severity through determining the number of staff for the intensive care unit (ICU) to the evaluation of new therapies under study conditions. Since the introduction of scoring systems in the 1980's a variety of different score models has been developed. The scoring systems that are employed in intensive care and are discussed in this article can be categorized into prognostic scores, expenses scores and disease-specific scores. Since the introduction of compulsory recording of two scoring systems for accounting in the German diagnosis-related groups (DRG) system, these tools have gained more importance for all intensive care physicians. Problems remain in the valid calculation of scores and interpretation of the results.

  9. Deploying a culture change programme management approach in support of information and communication technology developments in Greater Glasgow NHS Board.

    PubMed

    Frame, Joanne; Watson, Janice; Thomson, Katie

    2008-06-01

    This article reports on the project management and Culture Change Programme adopted by the NHS Greater Glasgow Health Board to deliver an electronic patient record (EPR) to support cardiology and stroke clinical services. To achieve its vision for the EPR (;to "really make a difference" to patient care by providing to the right person, the right information, under the right safeguards') the Board recognized that attending to social and organizational issues is at least of equal importance to addressing strictly technical concerns. Consequently, an ICT Culture Change Programme (ICT CCP) was devised and implemented to assist in the management of change, and in particular to facilitate a visionary clinical and cultural environment operating in conjunction with the evolving technical environment. In this article we describe the key components of this approach, outline the benefits we believe have accrued, and describe the steps being taken to build upon lessons learned. PMID:18477599

  10. WHEN CONSCIENCE ISN'T CLEAR: GREATER GLASGOW HEALTH BOARD v DOOGAN AND ANOTHER [2014] UKSC 68.

    PubMed

    Neal, Mary

    2015-01-01

    The Supreme Court's judgment in Doogan is a judicial review of a decision by Greater Glasgow Health Board regarding the scope of the conscience-based exemption in section 4(1) of the Abortion Act 1967. The case progressed through the Outer and Inner Houses of the Court of Session in Edinburgh before final judgment was delivered in the Supreme Court by Baroness Hale on December 17 2014. The Supreme Court eschewed consideration of the human rights dimension of the case (which had featured in the Outer House decision) and approached its judgment as 'a pure question of statutory construction'. This commentary engages with the judgment on its own terms, assessing it as an exercise in statutory interpretation, and leaves it to others who may wish to do so to comment on the human rights aspects of the case.

  11. Women's work in offices and the preservation of men's "breadwinning" jobs in early twentieth-century Glasgow.

    PubMed

    Wilson, R G

    2001-01-01

    As Britain's industrial economy matured and the volume of administrative work increased, different kinds of clerical jobs and clerical careers became possible. Using examples from a variety of small- to medium-sized enterprises in Glasgow, this article will describe how the main functions of administrative work - financial, secretarial and managerial - were divided both horizontally and vertically in order to preserve secure, well-paid, "breadwinning" jobs for men, leaving routine secretarial work for women. The isolation of women in all-women enclaves carrying out shorthand and typing work and the subsequent devaluation of these as kinds of work were of primary importance in the creation of office work that was explicitly women's work.

  12. Risk of suicide for individuals reporting asthma and atopy in young adulthood: findings from the Glasgow Alumni study.

    PubMed

    Crawford, Andrew A; Galobardes, Bruna; Jeffreys, Mona; Smith, George Davey; Gunnell, David

    2015-02-28

    There is emerging evidence that asthma and atopy may be associated with a higher risk of suicide. We investigated the association of asthma and atopy with mortality from suicide (n=32) in the Glasgow Alumni cohort, adjusting for the key confounders of socioeconomic position and smoking. We found no evidence of an association in our a priori atopy phenotypes with suicide, and there were insufficient suicides in the asthma phenotypes to draw any conclusions. In additional analyses, individuals reporting both eczema-urticaria and hay fever and those with family history of atopy were at higher risk of suicide. As these were secondary analyses and based on small numbers of events we cannot rule out chance findings. The lack of evidence in our main hypothesis may be due to the small number of suicides or reported associations between asthma and atopy may be confounded.

  13. Seeking to Institutionally Embed Lessons from a Funded Project: Experiences from the Digital Libraries in the Classroom Spoken Word Project at Glasgow Caledonian University

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Donald, David; Wallace, Iain

    2007-01-01

    The Joint Information Systems Committee and the National Science Foundation programme, Digital Libraries in the Classroom (DLiC), addresses implications for the learning of the revolution in scholarly communication. What are the obstacles to undergraduates "'writing' on and for the Internet"? Glasgow Caledonian University (GCU) is a partner in one…

  14. Reliability and Validity of the Dutch Version of the Glasgow Anxiety Scale for People with an Intellectual Disability (GAS-ID)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hermans, H.; Wieland, J.; Jelluma, N.; Van der Pas, F.; Evenhuis, H.

    2013-01-01

    Background: In the Netherlands, no self-report screening questionnaire for anxiety in people with intellectual disabilities (ID) was available yet. Therefore, we have translated the Glasgow Anxiety Scale for people with an Intellectual Disability (GAS-ID) into Dutch and studied its reliability and validity in adults with borderline, mild or…

  15. Libraries for Life: Democracy, Diversity, Delivery. IFLA Council and General Conference: Conference Programme and Proceedings (68th, Glasgow, Scotland, August 18-24, 2002).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    International Federation of Library Associations and Institutions, The Hague (Netherlands).

    This document presents the program and proceedings from the 68th International Federation of Library Associations and Institutions (IFLA) Conference held in Glasgow, Scotland, August 18-24, 2002. Topics of presentations include: library services for parliaments; needs assessment; the effects of September 11th on information provision and privacy;…

  16. "And afterwards your body to be given for public dissection": a history of the murderers dissected in Glasgow and the west of Scotland.

    PubMed

    Kennedy, S S; McLeod, K J; McDonald, S W

    2001-02-01

    Between 1752 and 1832, the bodies of hanged murderers were dissected or gibbeted. During this period, 38 murderers were executed in the West of Scotland. The bodies of at least 23 were dissected in Glasgow. The stories of these murders are recounted. Insight is also given into the attitudes of the public and the anatomists to dissection of executed murderers.

  17. Procalcitonin kinetics – prognostic and diagnostic significance in septic patients

    PubMed Central

    Mierzchała-Pasierb, Magdalena; Durek, Grażyna

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Severe sepsis and septic shock are advanced clinical conditions representing the patient's response to infection and having a variable but high mortality rate. Early evaluation of sepsis stage and choice of adequate treatment are key factors for survival. Some study results suggest the necessity of daily procalcitonin (PCT) monitoring because of its prognostic and discriminative value. Material and methods An observational and prospective study was conducted to evaluate the prognostic and discriminative value of PCT kinetics in comparison to PCT absolute value measurements. In a group of 50 intensive care unit patients with diagnosis of severe sepsis or septic shock, serum PCT measurements were performed on admission, and on the 2nd, 3rd and 5th day of therapy. The level of PCT was determined with a commercially available test according to the manufacturer's protocol. Results The kinetics of PCT assessed by ΔPCT was statistically significant in the survivors vs. the non-survivors subgroup (ΔPCT3/1, p = 0.022; ΔPCT5/1, p = 0.021). ΔPCT has no statistical significance in the severe sepsis and septic shock subgroups for all analyzed days. Only the 5th day PCT level was significantly higher in the non-survivors vs. survivors group (p = 0.008). The 1st day PCT level in the severe sepsis vs. septic shock group has a discriminative impact (p = 0.009). Conclusions According to the results, single serum PCT measurement, regardless of absolute value, has a discriminative impact but no prognostic significance, during the first 2 days of therapy. The PCT kinetics is of prognostic value from the 3rd day and is of earlier prognostic significance in comparison to changes in the patient's clinical condition evaluated by SOFA score kinetics. PMID:26925126

  18. Beyond the SYNTAX score--advantages and limitations of other risk assessment systems in left main percutaneous coronary intervention.

    PubMed

    Capodanno, Davide

    2013-01-01

    Risk stratification is an emerging topic in the modern management of patients with left main disease referred for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Recent years have witnessed an explosive multiplication of risk models for prognostic stratification in complex PCI. Many of this models deal with modification of the angiographic SYNTAX score, or seek to overcome its known pitfalls and limitations, including lack of clinical and functional information, inter- and intra-observer variabilities, and poor calibration. Risk scoring systems beyond the SYNTAX score may be classified into angiographic (residual SYNTAX score, coronary artery bypass grafting SYNTAX score), clinical (EuroSCORE I and II, ACEF score and modified ACEF scores), combined clinical and angiographic (Global Risk Classification, Clinical SYNTAX score, logistic Clinical SYNTAX score, SYNTAX score II) and functional (Functional SYNTAX score). This article reviews current concepts in risk modeling and explores the advantages and limitations of the alternatives to the SYNTAX score in patients undergoing left main PCI. 

  19. SCORE - A DESCRIPTION.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    SLACK, CHARLES W.

    REINFORCEMENT AND ROLE-REVERSAL TECHNIQUES ARE USED IN THE SCORE PROJECT, A LOW-COST PROGRAM OF DELINQUENCY PREVENTION FOR HARD-CORE TEENAGE STREET CORNER BOYS. COMMITTED TO THE BELIEF THAT THE BOYS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ETHICAL BEHAVIOR, THE SCORE WORKER FOLLOWS B.F. SKINNER'S THEORY OF OPERANT CONDITIONING AND REINFORCES THE DELINQUENT'S GOOD…

  20. Home Energy Score

    SciTech Connect

    2011-12-16

    The Home Energy Score allows a homeowner to compare her or his home's energy consumption to that of other homes, similar to a vehicle's mile-per-gallon rating. A home energy assessor will collect energy information during a brief home walk-through and then score that home on a scale of 1 to 10.

  1. Phase Synchronization in Electroencephalographic Recordings Prognosticates Outcome in Paediatric Coma

    PubMed Central

    Nenadovic, Vera; Perez Velazquez, Jose Luis; Hutchison, James Saunders

    2014-01-01

    Brain injury from trauma, cardiac arrest or stroke is the most important cause of death and acquired disability in the paediatric population. Due to the lifetime impact of brain injury, there is a need for methods to stratify patient risk and ultimately predict outcome. Early prognosis is fundamental to the implementation of interventions to improve recovery, but no clinical model as yet exists. Healthy physiology is associated with a relative high variability of physiologic signals in organ systems. This was first evaluated in heart rate variability research. Brain variability can be quantified through electroencephalographic (EEG) phase synchrony. We hypothesised that variability in brain signals from EEG recordings would correlate with patient outcome after brain injury. Lower variability in EEG phase synchronization, would be associated with poor patient prognosis. A retrospective study, spanning 10 years (2000–2010) analysed the scalp EEGs of children aged 1 month to 17 years in coma (Glasgow Coma Scale, GCS, <8) admitted to the paediatric critical care unit (PCCU) following brain injury from TBI, cardiac arrest or stroke. Phase synchrony of the EEGs was evaluated using the Hilbert transform and the variability of the phase synchrony calculated. Outcome was evaluated using the 6 point Paediatric Performance Category Score (PCPC) based on chart review at the time of hospital discharge. Outcome was dichotomized to good outcome (PCPC score 1 to 3) and poor outcome (PCPC score 4 to 6). Children who had a poor outcome following brain injury secondary to cardiac arrest, TBI or stroke, had a higher magnitude of synchrony (R index), a lower spatial complexity of the synchrony patterns and a lower temporal variability of the synchrony index values at 15 Hz when compared to those patients with a good outcome. PMID:24752289

  2. Prognostic factors in prostate cancer.

    PubMed

    Braeckman, Johan; Michielsen, Dirk

    2007-01-01

    In the nineteenth century the main goal of medicine was predictive: diagnose the disease and achieve a satisfying prognosis of the patient's chances. Today the effort has shifted to cure the disease. Since the twentieth century, the word prognosis has also been used in nonmedical contexts, for example in corporate finance or elections. The most accurate form of prognosis is achieved statistically. Based on different prognostic factors it should be possible to tell patients how they are expected to do after prostate cancer has been diagnosed and how different treatments may change this outcome. A prognosis is a prediction. The word prognosis comes from the Greek word (see text) and means foreknowing. In the nineteenth century this was the main goal of medicine: diagnose the disease and achieve a satisfying prognosis of the patient's chances. Today the effort has shifted towards seeking a cure. Prognostic factors in (prostate) cancer are defined as "variables that can account for some of the heterogeneity associated with the expected course and outcome of a disease". Bailey defined prognosis as "a reasoned forecast concerning the course, pattern, progression, duration, and end of the disease. Prognostic factors are not only essential to understand the natural history and the course of the disease, but also to predict possible different outcomes of different treatments or perhaps no treatment at all. This is extremely important in a disease like prostate cancer where there is clear evidence that a substantial number of cases discovered by prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing are unlikely ever to become clinically significant, not to mention mortal. Furthermore, prognostic factors are of paramount importance for correct interpretation of clinical trials and for the construction of future trials. Finally, according to WHO national screening committee criteria for implementing a national screening programme, widely accepted prognostic factors must be defined before

  3. Monoclonal antibody BrE-3 participation in a multivariate prognostic model for infiltrating ductal carcinoma of the breast.

    PubMed

    Chan, C M; Baratta, F S; Ozzello, L; Ceriani, R L

    1994-01-01

    Monoclonal antibody (MoAb) BrE-3, an anti-human milk fat globule (HMFG) MoAb, is used here as a novel prognostic indicator for survival and relapse time in patients with infiltrating ductal carcinoma of the breast. A scoring system (4-Score method) was developed to this effect that measured, in a statistically reliable fashion, the level of expression of the epitope for MoAb BrE-3 in the cytoplasm and membranes of breast carcinoma cells in paraffin-embedded sections. In univariate analysis, data obtained by the 4-Score Method as well as data from traditional prognostic indicators (tumor size, axillary node status, and grade of differentiation) were found to be associated with patient survival and relapse. In multivariate analysis, using a Cox proportional hazards regression model, levels of expression of BrE-3 epitope plus tumor size and axillary node status were weighted and combined in an Individual Linear Composite Prognostic Score (ILCPS) that had a high level of association with survival and relapse time in this sample model of patients with infiltrating ductal carcinoma of the breast. This level of association was found to be higher than the level of association for any other combination of traditional or 4-Score method variables. The level of expression of BrE-3 significantly adds to the prognostic capacity of traditional prognostic markers for infiltrating ductal carcinoma of the breast. PMID:7981443

  4. Reporting Valid and Reliable Overall Scores and Domain Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yao, Lihua

    2010-01-01

    In educational assessment, overall scores obtained by simply averaging a number of domain scores are sometimes reported. However, simply averaging the domain scores ignores the fact that different domains have different score points, that scores from those domains are related, and that at different score points the relationship between overall…

  5. Factor Structure of the Rorschach Prognostic Rating Scale and Its Relation to Therapeutic Outcome

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Auerbach, Stephen M.; Edinger, Jack D.

    1976-01-01

    This study evaluated the factor structure of the Rorschach Prognostic Rating Scale (RPRS) in order to: (a) test the assumption that the RPRS represents a unitary response system and (b) determine the efficacy of employing population specific factor scores as predictors of therapy outcome. (Author/NG)

  6. The Youth Throwing Score

    PubMed Central

    Ahmad, Christopher S.; Padaki, Ajay S.; Noticewala, Manish Suresh; Makhni, Eric Chugh; Popkin, Charles Aaron

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Epidemic levels of shoulder and elbow injuries have been reported in youth and adolescent baseball players. Despite the concerning frequency of these injuries, no instrument has been validated to assess upper extremity injury in this patient population. The purpose of this study was to validate an upper extremity assessment tool specifically designed for youth baseball players. We hypothesize this tool will be reliable, responsive and valid. Methods: The Youth Throwing Score (YTS) was constructed by a multidisciplinary healthcare provider team in addition to baseball coaches as a tool to assess upper extremity injury in 10 to 18 year old baseball players. The instrument was comprised of a demographics section and a 14 item assessment of pain, fatigue and psychosocial health. The 14 items were scored from 1 to 5 and weighted equally, with higher scores reflecting fewer symptoms and less functional disability. The psychometric properties, including the test-retest reliability, internal consistency, and responsiveness were calculated. Additionally, the Pearson correlation coefficient to 4 validated outcomes was determined. Results: A pilot form of the instrument was administered to 25 players to assess comprehension and mean item importance. Pilot analysis resulted in none of the 14 items receiving less than a 3 out of 5 mean athlete importance rating and the final instrument read at a Flesch-Kincaid level of 4.1, appropriate for patients age 9 and older. A total of 223 players completed the Youth Throwing Score, with an average player age of 14.3 ± 2.7 years old. The players self-assigned injury status, resulting in an average survey score of 59.7 ± 8.4 for the 148 players ‘playing without pain,’ 42.0 ± 11.5 for the 60 players ‘playing with pain,’ and 40.4 ± 10.5 for the 15 players ‘not playing due to pain.’ Players playing without pain scored significantly higher than those playing with pain (p < .001). The scoring tiers of the Youth

  7. Volleyball Scoring Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Calhoun, William; Dargahi-Noubary, G. R.; Shi, Yixun

    2002-01-01

    The widespread interest in sports in our culture provides an excellent opportunity to catch students' attention in mathematics and statistics classes. One mathematically interesting aspect of volleyball, which can be used to motivate students, is the scoring system. (MM)

  8. Nutrient Density Scores.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dickinson, Annette; Thompson, William T.

    1979-01-01

    Announces a nutrient density food scoring system called the Index of Nutritional Quality (INQ). It expresses the ratio between the percent RDA of a nutrient and the percent daily allowance of calories in a food. (Author/SA)

  9. Novel immunological and nutritional-based prognostic index for gastric cancer

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Kai-Yu; Xu, Jian-Bo; Chen, Shu-Ling; Yuan, Yu-Jie; Wu, Hui; Peng, Jian-Jun; Chen, Chuang-Qi; Guo, Pi; Hao, Yuan-Tao; He, Yu-Long

    2015-01-01

    AIM: To assess the prognostic significance of immunological and nutritional-based indices, including the prognostic nutritional index (PNI), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and platelet-lymphocyte ratio in gastric cancer. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed 632 gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy between 1998 and 2008. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were calculated to compare the predictive ability of the indices, together with estimating the sensitivity, specificity and agreement rate. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify risk factors for overall survival (OS). Propensity score analysis was performed to adjust variables to control for selection bias. RESULTS: Each index could predict OS in gastric cancer patients in univariate analysis, but only PNI had independent prognostic significance in multivariate analysis before and after adjustment with propensity scoring (hazard ratio, 1.668; 95% confidence interval: 1.368-2.035). In subgroup analysis, a low PNI predicted a significantly shorter OS in patients with stage II-III disease (P = 0.019, P < 0.001), T3-T4 tumors (P < 0.001), or lymph node metastasis (P < 0.001). Canton score, a combination of PNI, NLR, and platelet, was a better indicator for OS than PNI, with the largest area under the curve for 12-, 36-, 60-mo OS and overall OS (P = 0.022, P = 0.030, P < 0.001, and P = 0.024, respectively). The maximum sensitivity, specificity, and agreement rate of Canton score for predicting prognosis were 84.6%, 34.9%, and 70.1%, respectively. CONCLUSION: PNI is an independent prognostic factor for OS in gastric cancer. Canton score can be a novel preoperative prognostic index in gastric cancer. PMID:26019461

  10. Towards Prognostics for Electronics Components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saha, Bhaskar; Celaya, Jose R.; Wysocki, Philip F.; Goebel, Kai F.

    2013-01-01

    Electronics components have an increasingly critical role in avionics systems and in the development of future aircraft systems. Prognostics of such components is becoming a very important research field as a result of the need to provide aircraft systems with system level health management information. This paper focuses on a prognostics application for electronics components within avionics systems, and in particular its application to an Isolated Gate Bipolar Transistor (IGBT). This application utilizes the remaining useful life prediction, accomplished by employing the particle filter framework, leveraging data from accelerated aging tests on IGBTs. These tests induced thermal-electrical overstresses by applying thermal cycling to the IGBT devices. In-situ state monitoring, including measurements of steady-state voltages and currents, electrical transients, and thermal transients are recorded and used as potential precursors of failure.

  11. Neurological prognostication after cardiac arrest

    PubMed Central

    Sandroni, Claudio; Geocadin, Romergryko G.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose of review Prediction of neurological prognosis in patients who are comatose after successful resuscitation from cardiac arrest remains difficult. Previous guidelines recommended ocular reflexes, somatosensory evoked potentials and serum biomarkers for predicting poor outcome within 72h from cardiac arrest. However, these guidelines were based on patients not treated with targeted temperature management and did not appropriately address important biases in literature. Recent findings Recent evidence reviews detected important limitations in prognostication studies, such as low precision and, most importantly, lack of blinding, which may have caused a self-fulfilling prophecy and overestimated the specificity of index tests. Maintenance of targeted temperature using sedatives and muscle relaxants may interfere with clinical examination, making assessment of neurological status before 72 h or more after cardiac arrest unreliable. Summary No index predicts poor neurological outcome after cardiac arrest with absolute certainty. Prognostic evaluation should start not earlier than 72 h after ROSC and only after major confounders have been excluded so that reliable clinical examination can be made. Multimodality appears to be the most reasonable approach for prognostication after cardiac arrest. PMID:25922894

  12. Modelling shallow urban geology using reservoir modelling techniques: voxel-based lithology and physical properties of the greater Glasgow area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kingdon, Andrew; Williams, John D. O.; Williamson, J. Paul; Lark, R. Murray; Dobbs, Marcus R.; Kearsey, Timothy; Finlayson, Andrew; Campbell, S. Diarmad G.

    2013-04-01

    Conventional 3D geological models of lithostratigraphy undertaken by BGS have facilitated a significant step forward in understanding of the 3D sedimentological and structural controls in the subsurface of the UK. However, when lithostratigraphic units are mapped or modelled in 3D, intra-unit variability is often not recognized and may be substantial, particularly in sedimentologically heterogeneous successions. Because of this BGS has been testing voxel grid-based approaches in urban areas with high borehole density. A city-scale lithology model of shallow, unconsolidated sediments in Glasgow, Scotland has been developed as a test of the applicability of these techniques to aid geological understanding and possible future applications. This is of particular significance in this location due to the complex fluvial and glacial history of the superficial geology which alternates between inter-fingering sedimentary packages and short-scale variability of subsurface materials. The model has been created by developing a stochastic model of clastic geology on a voxel support, based on upscaling of observed borehole lithology, independent of lithostratigraphy. Multiple realisations of lithology were generated, each honouring the borehole observations. Lithology information has therefore been used to both develop a model of the distribution of lithology throughout the grid, but also to develop an understanding of the associated uncertainty by providing estimates of the probability with which a particular lithology occurs at a given node. This lithological model compares well with 'traditional' deterministic lithostratigraphic 3D models created in the same area, and with field-based geological maps. This lithological voxel model has been used as a matrix through which physical property data can be attributed within the grid by stochastic modelling and simulation of the variability of properties within the lithological units. Several different property datasets have been

  13. Angle Closure Scoring System (ACSS)-A Scoring System for Stratification of Angle Closure Disease

    PubMed Central

    Rao, Aparna; Padhy, Debananda; Sarangi, Sarada; Das, Gopinath

    2016-01-01

    Purpose To evaluate the angle closure scoring system (ACSS) for stratifying primary angle course disease. Methods This observational cross sectional institutional study included patients with primary open angle glaucoma suspects (n = 21) and primary angle closure disease (primary angle closure, PAC, n = 63 and primary angle course glaucoma, PACG, n = 58 (defined by International society of Geographical and Epidemiological Ophthalmology, ISGEO). Two independent examiners blinded to clinical details, graded good quality pre-laser goniophotographs of the patients incorporating quadrants of peripheral anterior synechieae (PAS), non-visibility of posterior trabecular meshwork (PTM) and blotchy pigments (ranging from 1–4 quadrants), iris configuration, angle recess (sum of above depicting ACSSg) and lens thickness/axial length ratio (LT/AL), cup disc ratio and baseline intraocular pressure (IOP) to give total score (ACSSt). Result There were significant differences in ACSSg scores within the same ISGEO stage of PAC and PACG between eyes that required nil or >1medicines after laser iridotomy, p<0.001. The ACSSg was associated with need for >1 medicines in both PAC and PACG eyes, p<0.001. An ACSSg score>12 and 14 in PAC (odds ratio = 2.7(95% CI-1.7–5.9) and PACG (Odds ratio = 1.6(95%CI-1.19–2.2) predicted need for single medicines while ACSSg scores >14 and 19 predicted need for ≥2 medicines in PAC and PACG eyes, respectively. The LT/Al ratio, IOP score or cup disc score did not influence the need for medical treatment independently. Conclusion The ACSS can be a useful clinical adjunct to the ISGEO system to predict need for medicines and prognosticate each stage more accurately. PMID:27788183

  14. Procalcitonin as a Diagnostic and Prognostic Factor for Tuberculosis Meningitis

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Jinseung; Kim, Si Eun; Park, Bong Soo; Shin, Kyong Jin; Ha, Sam Yeol; Park, JinSe; Kim, Sung Eun

    2016-01-01

    Background and Purpose We investigated the potential role of serum procalcitonin in differentiating tuberculosis meningitis from bacterial and viral meningitis, and in predicting the prognosis of tuberculosis meningitis. Methods This was a retrospective study of 26 patients with tuberculosis meningitis. In addition, 70 patients with bacterial meningitis and 49 patients with viral meningitis were included as the disease control groups for comparison. The serum procalcitonin level was measured in all patients at admission. Differences in demographic and laboratory data, including the procalcitonin level, were analyzed among the three groups. In addition, we analyzed the predictive factors for a prognosis of tuberculosis meningitis using the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) at discharge, and the correlation between the level of procalcitonin and the GCS score at discharge. Results Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that a low level of procalcitonin (≤1.27 ng/mL) independently distinguished tuberculosis meningitis from bacterial meningitis. The sensitivity and specificity for distinguishing tuberculosis meningitis from bacterial meningitis were 96.2% and 62.9%, respectively. However, the level of procalcitonin in patients with tuberculosis meningitis did not differ significantly from that in patients with viral meningitis. In patients with tuberculosis meningitis, a high level of procalcitonin (>0.4 ng/mL) was a predictor of a poor prognosis, and the level of procalcitonin was negatively correlated with the GCS score at discharge (r=-0.437, p=0.026). Conclusions We found that serum procalcitonin is a useful marker for differentiating tuberculosis meningitis from bacterial meningitis and is also valuable for predicting the prognosis of tuberculosis meningitis. PMID:27165424

  15. Sarcopenia in the prognosis of cirrhosis: Going beyond the MELD score.

    PubMed

    Kim, Hee Yeon; Jang, Jeong Won

    2015-07-01

    Estimating the prognosis of patients with cirrhosis remains challenging, because the natural history of cirrhosis varies according to the cause, presence of portal hypertension, liver synthetic function, and the reversibility of underlying disease. Conventional prognostic scoring systems, including the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score or model for end-stage liver diseases are widely used; however, revised models have been introduced to improve prognostic performance. Although sarcopenia is one of the most common complications related to survival of patients with cirrhosis, the newly proposed prognostic models lack a nutritional status evaluation of patients. This is reflected by the lack of an optimal index for sarcopenia in terms of objectivity, reproducibility, practicality, and prognostic performance, and of a consensus definition for sarcopenia in patients with cirrhosis in whom ascites and edema may interfere with body composition analysis. Quantifying skeletal muscle mass using cross-sectional abdominal imaging is a promising tool for assessing sarcopenia. As radiological imaging provides direct visualization of body composition, it is useful to evaluate sarcopenia in patients with cirrhosis whose body mass index, anthropometric measurements, or biochemical markers are inaccurate on a nutritional assessment. Sarcopenia defined by cross-sectional imaging-based muscular assessment is prevalent and predicts mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Sarcopenia alone or in combination with conventional prognostic systems shows promise for a cirrhosis prognosis. Including an objective assessment of sarcopenia with conventional scores to optimize the outcome prediction for patients with cirrhosis needs further research.

  16. A novel scoring system predicts adjuvant chemolipiodolization benefit for hepatocellular carcinoma patients after hepatectomy

    PubMed Central

    Xia, Yong; Li, Jun; Wang, Kui; Yan, Zhen-lin; Wan, Xu-ying; Shi, Le-hua; Yang, Tian; Lau, Wan Yee; Wu, Meng-chao; Shen, Feng

    2016-01-01

    Our aim in this study was to develop a prognostic scoring system with which to identify patients most likely to benefit from adjuvant chemolipiodolization (ACL) after liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Data from 1150 HCC patients who underwent liver resection between 2002 and 2008 at the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital were used to develop the scoring system. Patients were stratified into prognostic subgroups using the new scoring system, and the outcomes of patients who received ACL and those who did not were compared in each subgroup. Using data from 379 patients operated on between 2008 and 2010 for validation, the scoring system had a concordance index (C-index) of 0.75 for predicting post-resectional overall survival (OS). It optimally stratified patients into three prognostic subgroups with scores of 0–5, 6–9 and ≥ 10, having better, medium and worse survival outcomes, respectively. A difference in OS between ACL and non-ACL patients was only detected in the subgroup with scores ≥ 10 (1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates: 63.9%, 22.6%, and 9.0% vs. 33.8%, 5.6%, and 2.8%, p = 0.001). Our proposed scoring system provides an effective tool for selecting the patients most likely to benefit from ACL. PMID:27027439

  17. Constructing Patient Stories: 'Dynamic' Case Notes and Clinical Encounters at Glasgow's Gartnavel Mental Hospital, 1921-32.

    PubMed

    Morrison, Hazel

    2016-01-01

    This article contextualises the production of patient records at Glasgow's Gartnavel Mental Hospital between 1921 and 1932. Following his appointment as asylum superintendent in 1921, psychiatrist David Kennedy Henderson sought to introduce a so-called dynamic approach to mental health care. He did so, primarily, by encouraging patients to reveal their inner lives through their own language and own understanding of their illness. To this effect, Henderson implemented several techniques devised to gather as much information as possible about patients. He notably established routine 'staff meetings' in which a psychiatrist directed questions towards a patient while a stenographer recorded word-for-word the conversation that passed between the two parties. As a result, the records compiled at Gartnavel under Henderson's guidance offer a unique window into the various strategies deployed by patients, but also allow physicians and hospital staff to negotiate their place amidst these clinical encounters. In this paper, I analyse the production of patient narratives in these materials. The article begins with Henderson's articulation of his 'dynamic' psychotherapeutic method, before proceeding to an in-depth hermeneutic investigation into samples of Gartnavel's case notes and staff meeting transcripts. In the process, patient-psychiatrist relationships are revealed to be mutually dependent and interrelated subjects of historical enquiry rather than as distinct entities. This study highlights the multi-vocal nature of the construction of stories 'from below' and interrogates their subsequent appropriation by historians.

  18. Case notes, case histories, and the patient's experience of insanity at Gartnavel Royal Asylum, Glasgow, in the nineteenth century.

    PubMed

    Andrews, J

    1998-08-01

    This article is concerned primarily with questions as to how and why case notes were produced and utilized, and how they may (or may not) be used by historians. More specifically, it discusses how the Glasgow Royal Asylum's case notes may be deployed to access patients' experiences of madness and confinement. The deficiencies and biases of the case record are also explored. So too is the relationship of case notes with other asylum based records, including reception order questionnaires, with a separate section on patient writings as part of the case history corpus. This leads into an analysis of how the Asylum's case notes became case histories and for what purposes. These subjects are related to changes and continuities in medical ideologies about insanity, social attitudes to the insane and the nature of medical practice in asylums. Some fundamental shifts in emphasis in the use of the case note and case history occurred in this period. These shifts were associated with an increased emphasis on organic interpretations of mental disease and on clinical approaches to insanity; with the medicalization of asylum records and the wider discourse on insanity, and with declining deference to the public at large in the presentation of cases. The survey concludes by analysing the changing place of patient testimony within the case record.

  19. Case notes, case histories, and the patient's experience of insanity at Gartnavel Royal Asylum, Glasgow, in the nineteenth century.

    PubMed

    Andrews, J

    1998-08-01

    This article is concerned primarily with questions as to how and why case notes were produced and utilized, and how they may (or may not) be used by historians. More specifically, it discusses how the Glasgow Royal Asylum's case notes may be deployed to access patients' experiences of madness and confinement. The deficiencies and biases of the case record are also explored. So too is the relationship of case notes with other asylum based records, including reception order questionnaires, with a separate section on patient writings as part of the case history corpus. This leads into an analysis of how the Asylum's case notes became case histories and for what purposes. These subjects are related to changes and continuities in medical ideologies about insanity, social attitudes to the insane and the nature of medical practice in asylums. Some fundamental shifts in emphasis in the use of the case note and case history occurred in this period. These shifts were associated with an increased emphasis on organic interpretations of mental disease and on clinical approaches to insanity; with the medicalization of asylum records and the wider discourse on insanity, and with declining deference to the public at large in the presentation of cases. The survey concludes by analysing the changing place of patient testimony within the case record. PMID:11620430

  20. Melanoma Prognostic Model Using Tissue Microarrays and Genetic Algorithms

    PubMed Central

    Gould Rothberg, Bonnie E.; Berger, Aaron J.; Molinaro, Annette M.; Subtil, Antonio; Krauthammer, Michael O.; Camp, Robert L.; Bradley, William R.; Ariyan, Stephan; Kluger, Harriet M.; Rimm, David L.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose As a result of the questionable risk-to-benefit ratio of adjuvant therapies, stage II melanoma is currently managed by observation because available clinicopathologic parameters cannot identify the 20% to 60% of such patients likely to develop metastatic disease. Here, we propose a multimarker molecular prognostic assay that can help triage patients at increased risk of recurrence. Methods Protein expression for 38 candidates relevant to melanoma oncogenesis was evaluated using the automated quantitative analysis (AQUA) method for immunofluorescence-based immunohistochemistry in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded specimens from a cohort of 192 primary melanomas collected during 1959 to 1994. The prognostic assay was built using a genetic algorithm and validated on an independent cohort of 246 serial primary melanomas collected from 1997 to 2004. Results Multiple iterations of the genetic algorithm yielded a consistent five-marker solution. A favorable prognosis was predicted by ATF2 ln(non-nuclear/nuclear AQUA score ratio) of more than –0.052, p21WAF1 nuclear compartment AQUA score of more than 12.98, p16INK4A ln(non-nuclear/nuclear AQUA score ratio) of ≤ −0.083, β-catenin total AQUA score of more than 38.68, and fibronectin total AQUA score of ≤ 57.93. Primary tumors that met at least four of these five conditions were considered a low-risk group, and those that met three or fewer conditions formed a high-risk group (log-rank P < .0001). Multivariable proportional hazards analysis adjusting for clinicopathologic parameters shows that the high-risk group has significantly reduced survival on both the discovery (hazard ratio = 2.84; 95% CI, 1.46 to 5.49; P = .002) and validation (hazard ratio = 2.72; 95% CI, 1.12 to 6.58; P = .027) cohorts. Conclusion This multimarker prognostic assay, an independent determinant of melanoma survival, might be beneficial in improving the selection of stage II patients for adjuvant therapy. PMID:19884546

  1. Distilling the Verification Process for Prognostics Algorithms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Roychoudhury, Indranil; Saxena, Abhinav; Celaya, Jose R.; Goebel, Kai

    2013-01-01

    The goal of prognostics and health management (PHM) systems is to ensure system safety, and reduce downtime and maintenance costs. It is important that a PHM system is verified and validated before it can be successfully deployed. Prognostics algorithms are integral parts of PHM systems. This paper investigates a systematic process of verification of such prognostics algorithms. To this end, first, this paper distinguishes between technology maturation and product development. Then, the paper describes the verification process for a prognostics algorithm as it moves up to higher maturity levels. This process is shown to be an iterative process where verification activities are interleaved with validation activities at each maturation level. In this work, we adopt the concept of technology readiness levels (TRLs) to represent the different maturity levels of a prognostics algorithm. It is shown that at each TRL, the verification of a prognostics algorithm depends on verifying the different components of the algorithm according to the requirements laid out by the PHM system that adopts this prognostics algorithm. Finally, using simplified examples, the systematic process for verifying a prognostics algorithm is demonstrated as the prognostics algorithm moves up TRLs.

  2. Development of a Score Predicting Survival after Palliative Reirradiation

    PubMed Central

    Haukland, Ellinor; Grosu, Anca L.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose. To develop a prognostic model for predicting survival after palliative reirradiation (PR). Methods and Materials. We analyzed all 87 PR courses administered at a dedicated palliative radiotherapy facility between 20.06.2007 (opening) and 31.12.2009. Uni- and multivariate survival analyses were performed, the previously published survival prediction score (SPS) was evaluated, and a PR-specific prognostic score was calculated. Results. In multivariate analysis, four parameters significantly influenced survival: performance status, use of steroids, presence of liver metastases, and pleural effusion. Based on these parameters, a 4-tiered score was developed. Median survival was 24.5 months for the favorable group, 9.7 and 2.8 months for the two intermediate groups, and 1.1 months for the unfavorable group (P = 0.019 for comparison between the two favorable groups and P ≤ 0.002 for all other pair-wise comparisons). All patients in the unfavorable group died within 2 months. Conclusion. The performance of PR-specific score was promising and might facilitate identification of patients who survive long enough to benefit from PR. It should be validated in independent patient groups, ideally from several institutions and countries. PMID:25332718

  3. Developing a simple preinterventional score to predict hospital mortality in adult venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation: A pilot study.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Yu-Ting; Wu, Meng-Yu; Chang, Yu-Sheng; Huang, Chung-Chi; Lin, Pyng-Jing

    2016-07-01

    Despite gaining popularity, venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV-ECMO) remains a controversial therapy for acute respiratory failure (ARF) in adult patients due to its equivocal survival benefits. The study was aimed at identifying the preinterventional prognostic predictors of hospital mortality in adult VV-ECMO patients and developing a practical mortality prediction score to facilitate clinical decision-making.This retrospective study included 116 adult patients who received VV-ECMO for severe ARF in a tertiary referral center, from 2007 to 2015. The definition of severe ARF was PaO2/ FiO2 ratio < 70 mm Hg under advanced mechanical ventilation (MV). Preinterventional variables including demographic characteristics, ventilatory parameters, and severity of organ dysfunction were collected for analysis. The prognostic predictors of hospital mortality were generated with multivariate logistic regression and transformed into a scoring system. The discriminative power on hospital mortality of the scoring system was presented as the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).The overall hospital mortality rate was 47% (n = 54). Pre-ECMO MV day > 4 (OR: 4.71; 95% CI: 1.98-11.23; P < 0.001), pre-ECMO sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score >9 (OR: 3.16; 95% CI: 1.36-7.36; P = 0.01), and immunocompromised status (OR: 2.91; 95% CI: 1.07-7.89; P = 0.04) were independent predictors of hospital mortality of adult VV-ECMO. A mortality prediction score comprising of the 3 binary predictors was developed and named VV-ECMO mortality score. The total score was estimated as follows: VV-ECMO mortality score = 2 × (Pre-ECMO MV day > 4) + 1 × (Pre-ECMO SOFA score >9) + 1 × (immunocompromised status). The AUROC of VV-ECMO mortality score was 0.76 (95% CI: 0.67-0.85; P < 0.001). The corresponding hospital mortality rates to VV-ECMO mortality scores were 18% (Score 0), 35% (Score 1), 56% (Score 2), 75% (Score

  4. Developing Scoring Algorithms

    Cancer.gov

    We developed scoring procedures to convert screener responses to estimates of individual dietary intake for fruits and vegetables, dairy, added sugars, whole grains, fiber, and calcium using the What We Eat in America 24-hour dietary recall data from the 2003-2006 NHANES.

  5. Scoring from Contests

    PubMed Central

    Penn, Elizabeth Maggie

    2014-01-01

    This article presents a new model for scoring alternatives from “contest” outcomes. The model is a generalization of the method of paired comparison to accommodate comparisons between arbitrarily sized sets of alternatives in which outcomes are any division of a fixed prize. Our approach is also applicable to contests between varying quantities of alternatives. We prove that under a reasonable condition on the comparability of alternatives, there exists a unique collection of scores that produces accurate estimates of the overall performance of each alternative and satisfies a well-known axiom regarding choice probabilities. We apply the method to several problems in which varying choice sets and continuous outcomes may create problems for standard scoring methods. These problems include measuring centrality in network data and the scoring of political candidates via a “feeling thermometer.” In the latter case, we also use the method to uncover and solve a potential difficulty with common methods of rescaling thermometer data to account for issues of interpersonal comparability. PMID:24748759

  6. Automated Essay Scoring

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dikli, Semire

    2006-01-01

    The impacts of computers on writing have been widely studied for three decades. Even basic computers functions, i.e. word processing, have been of great assistance to writers in modifying their essays. The research on Automated Essay Scoring (AES) has revealed that computers have the capacity to function as a more effective cognitive tool (Attali,…

  7. Prognostic Factors in Patients Hospitalized with Diabetic Ketoacidosis

    PubMed Central

    Agarwal, Avinash; Yadav, Ambuj; Consul, Shuchi; Kumar, Sukriti; Prakash, Ved; Gupta, Anil Kumar; Bhattacharjee, Annesh

    2016-01-01

    Background Diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) is characterized by a biochemical triad of hyperglycemia, acidosis, and ketonemia. This condition is life-threatening despite improvements in diabetic care. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the clinical and biochemical prognostic markers of DKA. We assessed correlations in prognostic markers with DKA-associated morbidity and mortality. Methods Two hundred and seventy patients that were hospitalized with DKA over a period of 2 years were evaluated clinically and by laboratory tests. Serial assays of serum electrolytes, glucose, and blood pH were performed, and clinical outcome was noted as either discharged to home or death. Results The analysis indicated that significant predictors included sex, history of type 1 diabetes mellitus or type 2 diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, total leukocyte count, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, blood urea nitrogen, serum creatinine, serum magnesium, serum phosphate, serum osmolality, serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminases, serum glutamic pyruvic transaminases, serum albumin, which were further regressed and subjected to multivariate logistic regression (MLR) analysis. The MLR analysis indicated that males were 7.93 times more likely to have favorable outcome compared with female patients (odds ratio, 7.93; 95% confidence interval, 3.99 to 13.51), while decreases in mean APACHE II score (14.83) and serum phosphate (4.38) at presentation may lead to 2.86- and 2.71-fold better outcomes, respectively, compared with higher levels (APACHE II score, 25.00; serum phosphate, 6.04). Conclusion Sex, baseline biochemical parameters such as APACHE II score, and phosphate level were important predictors of the DKA-associated mortality. PMID:27586452

  8. Prognostic factors for stereopsis in refractive accommodative esotropia

    PubMed Central

    Guclu, Hande; Gurlu, Vuslat Pelitli; Ozal, Sadik Altan; Ozkurt, Zeynep Gursel

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To determine the prognostic factors affecting stereoacuity in patients with refractive accommodative esotropia (RAE) according to the results of long follow- up period. Methods: We reviewed the charts of 70 patients with RAE between the years 1985-2014. Patients were classified into three groups. G-1: Stereoacuity score 40 second/arc. G-2: Stereoacuity score >40 second/arc (50-3000). G-3: No binocular vision. Initiation age of RAE, duration of deviation, refractive error, amblyopia, amblyopia treatment, anisometropia, visual acuity, family history, angle of deviation for distance and near at each group and the prognostic factors affecting stereoacuity were analyzed. Results: The mean initiation age of RAE was 2.7±1.5 years, the mean age at first visit was 6.4±4.2 years. The mean follow up time was 7.3±4.4 years. Seven patients had 40 second/arc, 48 patients had 50 to 3000 second/arc stereoacuity, 15 patients had no binocular vision. Mean deviation for near was statistically higher in group 2 and 3. Visual acuity levels were higher in group 1 and 2 and was statistically significant. Low visual acuity (p=0.001, 0.008), higher angle of deviation at near (p=0.01), increased duration of deviation (p=0.01), presence of amblyopia (p=0.001) and irregularity of amblyopia treatment (p=0.01) were significantly related with poor stereoacuity. Conclusion: According to the prognostic factors low stereoacuity was mostly related with amblyopia as a result the late presentation of the patients in seeking care. Appropriate treatment as full refractive correction and amblyopia treatment during the RAE is important for development of good stereopsis. Also angle of deviation at near and duration of deviation can be a useful predictor for poor stereoacuity levels. PMID:26430408

  9. Syncopation and the Score

    PubMed Central

    Song, Chunyang; Simpson, Andrew J. R.; Harte, Christopher A.; Pearce, Marcus T.; Sandler, Mark B.

    2013-01-01

    The score is a symbolic encoding that describes a piece of music, written according to the conventions of music theory, which must be rendered as sound (e.g., by a performer) before it may be perceived as music by the listener. In this paper we provide a step towards unifying music theory with music perception in terms of the relationship between notated rhythm (i.e., the score) and perceived syncopation. In our experiments we evaluated this relationship by manipulating the score, rendering it as sound and eliciting subjective judgments of syncopation. We used a metronome to provide explicit cues to the prevailing rhythmic structure (as defined in the time signature). Three-bar scores with time signatures of 4/4 and 6/8 were constructed using repeated one-bar rhythm-patterns, with each pattern built from basic half-bar rhythm-components. Our manipulations gave rise to various rhythmic structures, including polyrhythms and rhythms with missing strong- and/or down-beats. Listeners (N = 10) were asked to rate the degree of syncopation they perceived in response to a rendering of each score. We observed higher degrees of syncopation in time signatures of 6/8, for polyrhythms, and for rhythms featuring a missing down-beat. We also found that the location of a rhythm-component within the bar has a significant effect on perceived syncopation. Our findings provide new insight into models of syncopation and point the way towards areas in which the models may be improved. PMID:24040323

  10. Hybrid Bearing Prognostic Test Rig

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dempsey, Paula J.; Certo, Joseph M.; Handschuh, Robert F.; Dimofte, Florin

    2005-01-01

    The NASA Glenn Research Center has developed a new Hybrid Bearing Prognostic Test Rig to evaluate the performance of sensors and algorithms in predicting failures of rolling element bearings for aeronautics and space applications. The failure progression of both conventional and hybrid (ceramic rolling elements, metal races) bearings can be tested from fault initiation to total failure. The effects of different lubricants on bearing life can also be evaluated. Test conditions monitored and recorded during the test include load, oil temperature, vibration, and oil debris. New diagnostic research instrumentation will also be evaluated for hybrid bearing damage detection. This paper summarizes the capabilities of this new test rig.

  11. Evaluation of Model Specification, Variable Selection, and Adjustment Methods in Relation to Propensity Scores and Prognostic Scores in Multilevel Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yu, Bing; Hong, Guanglei

    2012-01-01

    This study uses simulation examples representing three types of treatment assignment mechanisms in data generation (the random intercept and slopes setting, the random intercept setting, and a third setting with a cluster-level treatment and an individual-level outcome) in order to determine optimal procedures for reducing bias and improving…

  12. Prediction of 18-month survival in patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome. A regression model and scoring system based on the combination of chromosome findings and the Bournemouth score.

    PubMed

    Parlier, V; van Melle, G; Beris, P; Schmidt, P M; Tobler, A; Haller, E; Bellomo, M J

    1995-06-01

    The predictive potential of six selected factors was assessed in 72 patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis of survival at 18 months. Factors were age (above median of 69 years), dysplastic features in the three myeloid bone marrow cell lineages, presence of chromosome defects, all metaphases abnormal, double or complex chromosome defects (C23), and a Bournemouth score of 2, 3, or 4 (B234). In the multivariate approach, B234 and C23 proved to be significantly associated with a reduction in the survival probability. The similarity of the regression coefficients associated with these two factors means that they have about the same weight. Consequently, the model was simplified by counting the number of factors (0, 1, or 2) present in each patient, thus generating a scoring system called the Lausanne-Bournemouth score (LB score). The LB score combines the well-recognized and easy-to-use Bournemouth score (B score) with the chromosome defect complexity, C23 constituting an additional indicator of patient outcome. The predicted risk of death within 18 months calculated from the model is as follows: 7.1% (confidence interval: 1.7-24.8) for patients with an LB score of 0, 60.1% (44.7-73.8) for an LB score of 1, and 96.8% (84.5-99.4) for an LB score of 2. The scoring system presented here has several interesting features. The LB score may improve the predictive value of the B score, as it is able to recognize two prognostic groups in the intermediate risk category of patients with B scores of 2 or 3. It has also the ability to identify two distinct prognostic subclasses among RAEB and possibly CMML patients. In addition to its above-described usefulness in the prognostic evaluation, the LB score may bring new insights into the understanding of evolution patterns in MDS. We used the combination of the B score and chromosome complexity to define four classes which may be considered four possible states of

  13. The Relation between Factor Score Estimates, Image Scores, and Principal Component Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Velicer, Wayne F.

    1976-01-01

    Investigates the relation between factor score estimates, principal component scores, and image scores. The three methods compared are maximum likelihood factor analysis, principal component analysis, and a variant of rescaled image analysis. (RC)

  14. Validation of EORTC Prognostic Factors for Adults With Low-Grade Glioma: A Report Using Intergroup 86-72-51

    SciTech Connect

    Daniels, Thomas B.; Brown, Paul D.; Felten, Sara J.; Wu, Wenting; Buckner, Jan C.; Arusell, Robert M.; Curran, Walter J.; Abrams, Ross A.; Schiff, David; Shaw, Edward G.

    2011-09-01

    Purpose: A prognostic index for survival was constructed and validated from patient data from two European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) radiation trials for low-grade glioma (LGG). We sought to independently validate this prognostic index with a separate prospectively collected data set (Intergroup 86-72-51). Methods and Materials: Two hundred three patients were treated in a North Central Cancer Treatment Group-led trial that randomized patients with supratentorial LGG to 50.4 or 64.8 Gy. Risk factors from the EORTC prognostic index were analyzed for prognostic value: histology, tumor size, neurologic deficit, age, and tumor crossing the midline. The high-risk group was defined as patients with more than two risk factors. In addition, the Mini Mental Status Examination (MMSE) score, extent of surgical resection, and 1p19q status were also analyzed for prognostic value. Results: On univariate analysis, the following were statistically significant (p < 0.05) detrimental factors for both progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS): astrocytoma histology, tumor size, and less than total resection. A Mini Mental Status Examination score of more than 26 was a favorable prognostic factor. Multivariate analysis showed that tumor size and MMSE score were significant predictors of OS whereas tumor size, astrocytoma histology, and MMSE score were significant predictors of PFS. Analyzing by the EORTC risk groups, we found that the low-risk group had significantly better median OS (10.8 years vs. 3.9 years, p < 0.0001) and PFS (6.2 years vs. 1.9 years, p < 0.0001) than the high-risk group. The 1p19q status was available in 66 patients. Co-deletion of 1p19q was a favorable prognostic factor for OS vs. one or no deletion (median OS, 12.6 years vs. 7.2 years; p = 0.03). Conclusions: Although the low-risk group as defined by EORTC criteria had a superior PFS and OS to the high-risk group, this is primarily because of the influence of

  15. Distributed Prognostics based on Structural Model Decomposition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew J.; Bregon, Anibal; Roychoudhury, I.

    2014-01-01

    Within systems health management, prognostics focuses on predicting the remaining useful life of a system. In the model-based prognostics paradigm, physics-based models are constructed that describe the operation of a system and how it fails. Such approaches consist of an estimation phase, in which the health state of the system is first identified, and a prediction phase, in which the health state is projected forward in time to determine the end of life. Centralized solutions to these problems are often computationally expensive, do not scale well as the size of the system grows, and introduce a single point of failure. In this paper, we propose a novel distributed model-based prognostics scheme that formally describes how to decompose both the estimation and prediction problems into independent local subproblems whose solutions may be easily composed into a global solution. The decomposition of the prognostics problem is achieved through structural decomposition of the underlying models. The decomposition algorithm creates from the global system model a set of local submodels suitable for prognostics. Independent local estimation and prediction problems are formed based on these local submodels, resulting in a scalable distributed prognostics approach that allows the local subproblems to be solved in parallel, thus offering increases in computational efficiency. Using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we perform a number of simulation-based experiments to demonstrate the distributed approach, compare the performance with a centralized approach, and establish its scalability. Index Terms-model-based prognostics, distributed prognostics, structural model decomposition ABBREVIATIONS

  16. Prognostic Analysis System and Methods of Operation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    MacKey, Ryan M. E. (Inventor); Sneddon, Robert (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    A prognostic analysis system and methods of operating the system are provided. In particular, a prognostic analysis system for the analysis of physical system health applicable to mechanical, electrical, chemical and optical systems and methods of operating the system are described herein.

  17. Acute pancreatitis: prognostic value of CT

    SciTech Connect

    Balthazar, E.J.; Ranson, J.H.C.; Naidich, D.P.; Megibow, A.J.; Caccavale, R.; Cooper, M.M.

    1985-09-01

    In 83 patients with acute pancreatitis, the initial computed tomographic (CT) examinations were classified by degree of disease severity (grades A-E) and were correlated with the clinical follow-up, objective prognostic signs, and complications and death. The length of hospitalization correlated well with the severity of the initial CT findings. Abscesses occurred in 21.6% of the entire group, compared with 60.0% of grade E patients. Pleural effusions were also more common in grade E patients. Abscesses were seen in 80.0% of patients with six to eight prognostic signs, compared with 12.5% of those with zero to two. The use of prognostic signs with initial CT findings results in improved prognostic accuracy. Early CT examination of patients with acute pancreatitis is a useful prognostic indicator of morbidity and mortality.

  18. Model-Based Prognostics of Hybrid Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Bregon, Anibal

    2015-01-01

    Model-based prognostics has become a popular approach to solving the prognostics problem. However, almost all work has focused on prognostics of systems with continuous dynamics. In this paper, we extend the model-based prognostics framework to hybrid systems models that combine both continuous and discrete dynamics. In general, most systems are hybrid in nature, including those that combine physical processes with software. We generalize the model-based prognostics formulation to hybrid systems, and describe the challenges involved. We present a general approach for modeling hybrid systems, and overview methods for solving estimation and prediction in hybrid systems. As a case study, we consider the problem of conflict (i.e., loss of separation) prediction in the National Airspace System, in which the aircraft models are hybrid dynamical systems.

  19. Identifying prognostic factors for drug rash with eosinophilia and systemic symptoms (DRESS).

    PubMed

    Wei, Chia-Hung; Chung-Yee Hui, Rosaline; Chang, Chee-Jen; Ho, Hsin-Chun; Yang, Chih-Hsun; Lin, Yu-Jr; Chung, Wen-Hung

    2011-01-01

    Drug rash with eosinophilia and systemic symptoms (DRESS) is a severe cutaneous drug reaction. Although the severity-of-illness score (SCORTEN) has been proposed for toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN) for 10 years, a prognostic score for DRESS is still lacking. To identify prognostic factors of DRESS patients during hospitalization in one medical health system in Taiwan. We retrospectively reviewed all patients with DRESS diagnosed by dermatologists in Chang Gung Memorial Hospital (CMGH) Health System from 2001 to 2010. To study prognostic factors, we collected data at early disease and maximal disease stages. 91 individuals, including 13 dead patients, were evaluated. Five independent prognostic factors of death were found: heart rate > 90/min, white blood cells >12,000/mm(3) and respiratory rate >20/min (at early disease stage), coagulopathy and gastrointestinal bleeding (at maximal disease stage). In addition, systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) occurred at a much higher percentage among non-survivors throughout hospitalization. We found tachycardia, leukocytosis, tachypnea, coagulopathy, gastrointestinal bleeding and SIRS were associated with a poor outcome in DRESS patients. DRESS patients with persistent SIRS during hospitalization were also associated with a higher mortality risk. Early recognition and prompt intervention in these factors may improve outcome.

  20. Dyspnea as a Prognostic Factor in Patients with Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Ban, Wooho; Lee, Jong Min; Ha, Jick Hwan; Yeo, Chang Dong; Kang, Hyeon Hui; Rhee, Chin Kook; Moon, Hwa Sik

    2016-01-01

    Purpose To investigate associations between dyspnea and clinical outcomes in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Materials and Methods From 2001 to 2014, we retrospectively reviewed the prospective lung cancer database of St. Paul's Hospital at the Catholic University of Korea. We enrolled patients with NSCLC and evaluated symptoms of dyspnea using modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) scores. Also, we estimated pulmonary functions and analyzed survival data. Results In total, 457 NSCLC patients were enrolled, and 259 (56.7%) had dyspnea. Among those with dyspnea and whose mMRC scores were available (109 patients had no mMRC score), 85 (56.6%) patients had an mMRC score <2, while 65 (43.3%) had an mMRC score ≥2. Significant decreased pulmonary functions were observed in patients with dyspnea. In multivariate analysis, aging, poor performance status, advanced stage, low forced expiratory volume in 1 second (%), and an mMRC score ≥2 were found to be significant prognostic factors for patient survival. Conclusion Dyspnea could be a significant prognostic factor in patients with NSCLC. PMID:27401635

  1. An Integrated Approach for Gear Health Prognostics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    He, David; Bechhoefer, Eric; Dempsey, Paula; Ma, Jinghua

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, an integrated approach for gear health prognostics using particle filters is presented. The presented method effectively addresses the issues in applying particle filters to gear health prognostics by integrating several new components into a particle filter: (1) data mining based techniques to effectively define the degradation state transition and measurement functions using a one-dimensional health index obtained by whitening transform; (2) an unbiased l-step ahead RUL estimator updated with measurement errors. The feasibility of the presented prognostics method is validated using data from a spiral bevel gear case study.

  2. An initial assessment of spatial relationships between respiratory cases, soil metal content, air quality and deprivation indicators in Glasgow, Scotland, UK: relevance to the environmental justice agenda.

    PubMed

    Morrison, S; Fordyce, F M; Scott, E Marian

    2014-04-01

    There is growing interest in links between poor health and socio-environmental inequalities (e.g. inferior housing, crime and industrial emissions) under the environmental justice agenda. The current project assessed associations between soil metal content, air pollution (NO2/PM10) and deprivation and health (respiratory case incidence) across Glasgow. This is the first time that both chemical land quality and air pollution have been assessed citywide in the context of deprivation and health for a major UK conurbation. Based on the dataset 'averages' for intermediate geography areas, generalised linear modelling of respiratory cases showed significant associations with overall soil metal concentration (p = 0.0367) and with deprivation (p < 0.0448). Of the individual soil metals, only nickel showed a significant relationship with respiratory cases (p = 0.0056). Whilst these associations could simply represent concordant lower soil metal concentrations and fewer respiratory cases in the rural versus the urban environment, they are interesting given (1) possible contributions from soil to air particulate loading and (2) known associations between airborne metals like nickel and health. This study also demonstrated a statistically significant correlation (-0.213; p < 0.05) between soil metal concentration and deprivation across Glasgow. This highlights the fact that despite numerous regeneration programmes, the legacy of environmental pollution remains in post-industrial areas of Glasgow many decades after heavy industry has declined. Further epidemiological investigations would be required to determine whether there are any causal links between soil quality and population health/well-being. However, the results of this study suggest that poor soil quality warrants greater consideration in future health and socio-environmental inequality assessments.

  3. Serum-tryptase at diagnosis: a novel biomarker improving prognostication in Ph+ CML

    PubMed Central

    Sperr, Wolfgang R; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Hoermann, Gregor; Herndlhofer, Susanne; Sillaber, Christian; Mannhalter, Christine; Kundi, Michael; Valent, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Basophilia is an established prognostic variable in Ph-chromosome+ chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). However, in CML, basophils are often immature and thus escape microscopic quantification. We have previously shown that tryptase is produced and secreted by immature CML basophils. In the current study, serum samples of 79 CML patients (chronic phase=CP, n=69; accelerated/blast phase=AP/BP, n=10) treated with BCR/ABL inhibitors, were analyzed for their tryptase content. Serum-tryptase levels at diagnosis were found to correlate with basophil counts and were higher in AP/BP patients (median tryptase: 29.9 ng/mL) compared to patients with CP (11.7 ng/mL; p<0.05). In 20/69 patients with CP, progression occurred. The progression-rate was higher in patients with tryptase >15 ng/mL (31%) compared to those with normal tryptase levels (9%, p<0.05). To validate tryptase as new prognostic variable, we replaced basophils by tryptase levels in the EUTOS score. This modified EUTOS-T score was found to predict progression-free and event-free survival significantly better, with p values of 0.000064 and 0.00369, respectively, compared to the original EUTOS score (progression-free survival: p=0.019; event-free survival: p=0.156). In conclusion, our data show that the serum-tryptase level at diagnosis is a powerful prognostic biomarker in CML. Inclusion of tryptase in prognostic CML scores may improve their predictive value. PMID:25628944

  4. Fingerprinting of music scores

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irons, Jonathan; Schmucker, Martin

    2004-06-01

    Publishers of sheet music are generally reluctant in distributing their content via the Internet. Although online sheet music distribution's advantages are numerous the potential risk of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) infringement, e.g. illegal online distributions, disables any innovation propensity. While active protection techniques only deter external risk factors, additional technology is necessary to adequately treat further risk factors. For several media types including music scores watermarking technology has been developed, which ebeds information in data by suitable data modifications. Furthermore, fingerprinting or perceptual hasing methods have been developed and are being applied especially for audio. These methods allow the identification of content without prior modifications. In this article we motivate the development of watermarking and fingerprinting technologies for sheet music. Outgoing from potential limitations of watermarking methods we explain why fingerprinting methods are important for sheet music and address potential applications. Finally we introduce a condept for fingerprinting of sheet music.

  5. Relationship of Apgar Scores and Bayley Mental and Motor Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Serunian, Sally A.; Broman, Sarah H.

    1975-01-01

    Examined the relationship of newborns' 1-minute Apgar scores to their 8-month Bayley mental and motor scores and to 8-month classifications of their development as normal, suspect, or abnormal. Also investigated relationships between Apgar scores and race, longevity, and birth weight. (JMB)

  6. Automated Essay Scoring versus Human Scoring: A Comparative Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Jinhao; Brown, Michelle Stallone

    2007-01-01

    The current research was conducted to investigate the validity of automated essay scoring (AES) by comparing group mean scores assigned by an AES tool, IntelliMetric [TM] and human raters. Data collection included administering the Texas version of the WriterPlacer "Plus" test and obtaining scores assigned by IntelliMetric [TM] and by human…

  7. Plasma peptidases as prognostic biomarkers in patients with first-episode psychosis.

    PubMed

    Fernández-Atucha, Ainhoa; Echevarría, Enrique; Larrinaga, Gorka; Gil, Javier; Martínez-Cengotitabengoa, Mónica; González-Pinto, Ana M; Irazusta, Jon; Seco, Jesús

    2015-08-15

    The plasma activity of nine aminopeptidases was monitored over a year in first-episode psychotic patients. We observed significant differences in aminopeptidase B (APB), aminopeptidase N (APN) and dipeptidyl peptidase IV (DPPIV), but not in puromycin-sensitive aminopeptidase (PSA), prolyl endopeptidase (PEP), cysteine aminopeptidase (Cys-AP), aspartate aminopeptidase (Asp-AP), glutamate aminopeptidase (Glu) or piroglutamate aminopeptidase (PGI) in these patients compared to controls, and also a progressive increase in plasma activity, correlated to changes in scores on clinical scales, Global Assessment of Functioning scale (GAF) and Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS), at 1 month of follow-up. At 1 month after diagnosis, the median score obtained by patients on the GAF was negatively associated with the plasma activity of APB and PEP measured at the beginning of the psychotic episode, indicating a role as a negative prognostic factor that can predict psychiatric symptomatology. In the case of HDRS, scores at 1 month after diagnosis were found to be positively associated with the initial plasma activity of DPPIV, APN and PSA, indicating that their initial elevation is a negative prognostic factor that can predict subsequent depressive symptomatology. Taken together, these results suggest a pathophysiological involvement of plasma peptidases and indicate that aminopeptidase activity can predict the course of first-episode psychosis patients, acting as a prognostic indicator.

  8. Prognostic Value of Epicardial Fat Volume Measurements by Computed Tomography: A Systematic Review of the Literature

    PubMed Central

    Spearman, James V.; Renker, Matthias; Schoepf, U. Joseph; Krazinski, Aleksander W.; Herbert, Teri L.; De Cecco, Carlo N.; Nietert, Paul J.; Meinel, Felix G.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To perform a systematic review of the growing body of literature evaluating the prognostic value of epicardial fat volume (EFV) quantified by cross-sectional imaging for adverse clinical outcomes. Methods Two independent reviewers performed systematic searches on both PubMed and Scopus using search terms developed with a medical librarian. Peer-reviewed articles were selected based on the inclusion of outcome data, utilization of epicardial fat volume and sufficient reporting for analysis. Results A total of 411 studies were evaluated with 9 studies meeting the inclusion criteria. In all, the studies evaluated 10,252 patients. All 9 studies were based on CT measurements. Seven studies evaluated the prognostic value of EFV unadjusted for calcium score, and 6 of these studies found a significant association between EFV and clinical outcomes. Seven studies evaluated the incremental value of EFV beyond calcium scoring, and 6 of these studies found a significant association. Conclusions The majority of studies suggest that EFV quantification is significantly associated with clinical outcomes and provides incremental prognostic value over coronary artery calcium scoring. Future research should use a binary cut-off of 125mL for evaluation of EFV to provide consistency with other research. PMID:25925354

  9. Prognostic value of PTEN loss in men with conservatively managed localised prostate cancer

    PubMed Central

    Cuzick, J; Yang, Z H; Fisher, G; Tikishvili, E; Stone, S; Lanchbury, J S; Camacho, N; Merson, S; Brewer, D; Cooper, C S; Clark, J; Berney, D M; Møller, H; Scardino, P; Sangale, Z

    2013-01-01

    Background: The natural history of prostate cancer is highly variable and difficult to predict. We report on the prognostic value of phosphatase and tensin homologue (PTEN) loss in a cohort of 675 men with conservatively managed prostate cancer diagnosed by transurethral resection of the prostate. Methods: The PTEN status was assayed by immunohistochemistry (PTEN IHC) and fluorescent in situ hybridisation (PTEN FISH). The primary end point was death from prostate cancer. Results: The PTEN IHC loss was observed in 18% cases. This was significantly associated with prostate cancer death in univariate analysis (hazard ratio (HR)=3.51; 95% CI 2.60–4.73; P=3.1 × 10−14). It was highly predictive of prostate cancer death in the 50% of patients with a low risk score based on Gleason score, PSA, Ki-67 and extent of disease (HR=7.4; 95% CI 2.2–24.6; P=0.012) ), but had no prognostic value in the higher risk patients. The PTEN FISH loss was only weakly associated with PTEN IHC loss (κ=0.5). Both PTEN FISH loss and amplification were univariately predictive of death from prostate cancer, but this was not maintained in the multivariate analyses. Conclusion: In low-risk patients, PTEN IHC loss adds prognostic value to Gleason score, PSA, Ki-67 and extent of disease. PMID:23695019

  10. Olympic Scoring of English Compositions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Follman, John; Panther, Edward

    1974-01-01

    Examines empirically the efficacy of utilizing Olympic diving and gymnastic scoring systems for grading graduate students' English compositions. Results indicated that such scoring rules do not produce ratings different in reliability or in level from conventional letter grades. (ED)

  11. Prognostic Factors for Visual Outcome in Traumatic Cataract Patients

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yan F.; Zhu, Yu; Wan, Ming G.; Du, Shan S.; Yue, Zhen Z.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose. To investigate the prognostic factors for visual outcome in traumatic cataract patients. Methods. The demographic features of traumatic cataract patients in Central China were studied. The factors that might influence the visual outcome were analyzed. The sensitivity and specificity of OTS (ocular trauma score) in predicting VA were calculated. Results. The study enrolled 480 cases. 65.5% of patients achieved VA at >20/60. The factors associated with the final VA were initial VA, injury type, wound location, the way of cataract removal, and IOL implantation. The sensitivities of OTS in predicting the VA at NLP (nonlight perception), LP/HM (light perception/hand motion), and ≥20/40 were 100%. The specificity of OTS to predict the final VA at 1/200-19/200 and 20/200-20/50 was 100%. Conclusion. The prognostic factors were initial VA, injury type, wound location, cataract removal procedure, and the way of IOL implantation. The OTS has good sensitivity and specificity in predicting visual outcome in traumatic cataract patients in long follow-up.

  12. Prognostic Factors for Visual Outcome in Traumatic Cataract Patients.

    PubMed

    Qi, Ying; Zhang, Yan F; Zhu, Yu; Wan, Ming G; Du, Shan S; Yue, Zhen Z

    2016-01-01

    Purpose. To investigate the prognostic factors for visual outcome in traumatic cataract patients. Methods. The demographic features of traumatic cataract patients in Central China were studied. The factors that might influence the visual outcome were analyzed. The sensitivity and specificity of OTS (ocular trauma score) in predicting VA were calculated. Results. The study enrolled 480 cases. 65.5% of patients achieved VA at >20/60. The factors associated with the final VA were initial VA, injury type, wound location, the way of cataract removal, and IOL implantation. The sensitivities of OTS in predicting the VA at NLP (nonlight perception), LP/HM (light perception/hand motion), and ≥20/40 were 100%. The specificity of OTS to predict the final VA at 1/200-19/200 and 20/200-20/50 was 100%. Conclusion. The prognostic factors were initial VA, injury type, wound location, cataract removal procedure, and the way of IOL implantation. The OTS has good sensitivity and specificity in predicting visual outcome in traumatic cataract patients in long follow-up. PMID:27595014

  13. Prognostic Factors for Visual Outcome in Traumatic Cataract Patients

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yan F.; Zhu, Yu; Wan, Ming G.; Du, Shan S.; Yue, Zhen Z.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose. To investigate the prognostic factors for visual outcome in traumatic cataract patients. Methods. The demographic features of traumatic cataract patients in Central China were studied. The factors that might influence the visual outcome were analyzed. The sensitivity and specificity of OTS (ocular trauma score) in predicting VA were calculated. Results. The study enrolled 480 cases. 65.5% of patients achieved VA at >20/60. The factors associated with the final VA were initial VA, injury type, wound location, the way of cataract removal, and IOL implantation. The sensitivities of OTS in predicting the VA at NLP (nonlight perception), LP/HM (light perception/hand motion), and ≥20/40 were 100%. The specificity of OTS to predict the final VA at 1/200-19/200 and 20/200-20/50 was 100%. Conclusion. The prognostic factors were initial VA, injury type, wound location, cataract removal procedure, and the way of IOL implantation. The OTS has good sensitivity and specificity in predicting visual outcome in traumatic cataract patients in long follow-up. PMID:27595014

  14. Local dynamics of heart rate: detection and prognostic implications.

    PubMed

    Moss, Travis J; Lake, Douglas E; Moorman, J Randall

    2014-10-01

    The original observation that reduced heart rate variability (HRV) confers poor prognosis after myocardial infarction has been followed by many studies of heart rate dynamics. We tested the hypothesis that an entropy-based local dynamics measure gave prognostic information in ambulatory patients undergoing 24-h electrocardiography. In this context, entropy is the probability that short templates will find matches in the time series. We studied RR interval time series from 24-h Holter monitors of 1564 consecutive patients over age 39. We generated histograms of the count of templates as a function of the number of templates matches in short RR interval time series, and found characteristic appearance of histograms for atrial fibrillation, sinus rhythm with normal HRV, and sinus rhythm with reduced HRV and premature ventricular contractions (PVCs). We developed statistical models to detect the abnormal dynamic phenotype of reduced HRV with PVCs and fashioned a local dynamics score (LDs) that, after controlling for age, added more prognostic information than other standard risk factors and common HRV metrics, including, to our surprise, the PVC count and the HRV of normal-to-normal intervals. Addition of the LDs to a predictive model using standard risk factors significantly increased the ROC area and the net reclassification improvement was 27%. We conclude that abnormal local dynamics of heart rate confer adverse prognosis in patients undergoing 24-h ambulatory electrocardiography.

  15. Ki67 index is an independent prognostic factor in epithelioid but not in non-epithelioid malignant pleural mesothelioma: a multicenter study

    PubMed Central

    Ghanim, B; Klikovits, T; Hoda, M A; Lang, G; Szirtes, I; Setinek, U; Rozsas, A; Renyi-Vamos, F; Laszlo, V; Grusch, M; Filipits, M; Scheed, A; Jakopovic, M; Samarzija, M; Brcic, L; Stancic–Rokotov, D; Kern, I; Rozman, A; Dekan, G; Klepetko, W; Berger, W; Glasz, T; Dome, B; Hegedus, B

    2015-01-01

    Background: Estimating the prognosis in malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) remains challenging. Thus, the prognostic relevance of Ki67 was studied in MPM. Methods: Ki67 index was determined in a test cohort of 187 cases from three centres. The percentage of Ki67-positive tumour cells was correlated with clinical variables and overall survival (OS). The prognostic power of Ki67 index was compared with other prognostic factors and re-evaluated in an independent cohort (n=98). Results: Patients with Ki67 higher than median (>15%) had significantly (P<0.001) shorter median OS (7.5 months) than those with low Ki67 (19.1 months). After multivariate survival analyses, Ki67 proved to be—beside histology and treatment—an independent prognostic marker in MPM (hazard ratio (HR): 2.1, P<0.001). Interestingly, Ki67 was prognostic exclusively in epithelioid (P<0.001) but not in non-epithelioid subtype. Furthermore, Ki67 index was significantly lower in post-chemotherapy samples when compared with chemo-naive cases. The prognostic power was comparable to other recently published prognostic factors (CRP, fibrinogen, neutrophil-to-leukocyte ratio (NLR) and nuclear grading score) and was recapitulated in the validation cohort (P=0.048). Conclusion: This multicentre study demonstrates that Ki67 is an independent and reproducible prognostic factor in epithelioid but not in non-epithelioid MPM and suggests that induction chemotherapy decreases the proliferative capacity of MPM. PMID:25633038

  16. Line Lengths and Starch Scores.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moriarty, Sandra E.

    1986-01-01

    Investigates readability of different line lengths in advertising body copy, hypothesizing a normal curve with lower scores for shorter and longer lines, and scores above the mean for lines in the middle of the distribution. Finds support for lower scores for short lines and some evidence of two optimum line lengths rather than one. (SKC)

  17. Prognostic factors for clinical outcomes after rotator cuff repair

    PubMed Central

    Pécora, José Otávio Reggi; Malavolta, Eduardo Angeli; Assunção, Jorge Henrique; Gracitelli, Mauro Emílio Conforto; Martins, João Paulo Sobreiro; Ferreira, Arnaldo Amado

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To identify prognostic factors of postoperative functional outcomes. METHODS: Retrospective case series evaluating patients undergoing rotator cuff repair, analyzed by the UCLA score (pre and 12-month postoperative) and Magnetic Resonance Imaging (preoperative). Patients' intrinsic variables related to the injury and intervention were evaluated. Multivariate linear regression analysis was performed to determine variables impact on postoperative functional assessment. RESULTS: 131 patients were included. The mean UCLA score increased from 13.17 ± 3.77 to 28.73 ± 6.09 (p<0,001). We obtained 65.7% of good and excellent results. Age (r= 0.232, p= 0.004) and reparability of posterosuperior injuries (r= 0.151, p= 0.043) correlated with the functional assessment at 12 months. After multivariate linear regression analysis, only age was associated (p = 0.008). CONCLUSIONS: The surgical treatment of rotator cuff tears lead to good and excellent results in 65.6% of patients. Age was an independent predictor factor with better clinical outcomes by UCLA score in older patients. Level of Evidence IV, Case Series. PMID:26207092

  18. Genome-wide profiling of transfer RNAs and their role as novel prognostic markers for breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Krishnan, Preethi; Ghosh, Sunita; Wang, Bo; Heyns, Mieke; Li, Dongping; Mackey, John R.; Kovalchuk, Olga; Damaraju, Sambasivarao

    2016-01-01

    Transfer RNAs (tRNAs, key molecules in protein synthesis) have not been investigated as potential prognostic markers in breast cancer (BC), despite early findings of their dysregulation and diagnostic potential. We aim to comprehensively profile tRNAs from breast tissues and to evaluate their role as prognostic markers (Overall Survival, OS and Recurrence Free Survival, RFS). tRNAs were profiled from 11 normal breast and 104 breast tumor tissues using next generation sequencing. We adopted a Case-control (CC) and Case-Only (CO) association study designs. Risk scores constructed from tRNAs were subjected to univariate and multivariate Cox-proportional hazards regression to investigate their prognostic value. Of the 571 tRNAs profiled, 76 were differentially expressed (DE) and three were significant for OS in the CC approach. We identified an additional 11 tRNAs associated with OS and 14 tRNAs as significant for RFS in the CO approach, indicating that CC alone may not capture all discriminatory tRNAs in prognoses. In both the approaches, the risk scores were significant in the multivariate analysis as independent prognostic factors, and patients belonging to high-risk group were associated with poor prognosis. Our results confirmed global up-regulation of tRNAs in BC and identified tRNAs as potential novel prognostic markers for BC. PMID:27604545

  19. Genome-wide profiling of transfer RNAs and their role as novel prognostic markers for breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Krishnan, Preethi; Ghosh, Sunita; Wang, Bo; Heyns, Mieke; Li, Dongping; Mackey, John R; Kovalchuk, Olga; Damaraju, Sambasivarao

    2016-01-01

    Transfer RNAs (tRNAs, key molecules in protein synthesis) have not been investigated as potential prognostic markers in breast cancer (BC), despite early findings of their dysregulation and diagnostic potential. We aim to comprehensively profile tRNAs from breast tissues and to evaluate their role as prognostic markers (Overall Survival, OS and Recurrence Free Survival, RFS). tRNAs were profiled from 11 normal breast and 104 breast tumor tissues using next generation sequencing. We adopted a Case-control (CC) and Case-Only (CO) association study designs. Risk scores constructed from tRNAs were subjected to univariate and multivariate Cox-proportional hazards regression to investigate their prognostic value. Of the 571 tRNAs profiled, 76 were differentially expressed (DE) and three were significant for OS in the CC approach. We identified an additional 11 tRNAs associated with OS and 14 tRNAs as significant for RFS in the CO approach, indicating that CC alone may not capture all discriminatory tRNAs in prognoses. In both the approaches, the risk scores were significant in the multivariate analysis as independent prognostic factors, and patients belonging to high-risk group were associated with poor prognosis. Our results confirmed global up-regulation of tRNAs in BC and identified tRNAs as potential novel prognostic markers for BC. PMID:27604545

  20. Vehicle Integrated Prognostic Reasoner (VIPR) Metric Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cornhill, Dennis; Bharadwaj, Raj; Mylaraswamy, Dinkar

    2013-01-01

    This document outlines a set of metrics for evaluating the diagnostic and prognostic schemes developed for the Vehicle Integrated Prognostic Reasoner (VIPR), a system-level reasoner that encompasses the multiple levels of large, complex systems such as those for aircraft and spacecraft. VIPR health managers are organized hierarchically and operate together to derive diagnostic and prognostic inferences from symptoms and conditions reported by a set of diagnostic and prognostic monitors. For layered reasoners such as VIPR, the overall performance cannot be evaluated by metrics solely directed toward timely detection and accuracy of estimation of the faults in individual components. Among other factors, overall vehicle reasoner performance is governed by the effectiveness of the communication schemes between monitors and reasoners in the architecture, and the ability to propagate and fuse relevant information to make accurate, consistent, and timely predictions at different levels of the reasoner hierarchy. We outline an extended set of diagnostic and prognostics metrics that can be broadly categorized as evaluation measures for diagnostic coverage, prognostic coverage, accuracy of inferences, latency in making inferences, computational cost, and sensitivity to different fault and degradation conditions. We report metrics from Monte Carlo experiments using two variations of an aircraft reference model that supported both flat and hierarchical reasoning.

  1. Metrics for Offline Evaluation of Prognostic Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saxena, Abhinav; Celaya, Jose; Saha, Bhaskar; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai

    2010-01-01

    Prognostic performance evaluation has gained significant attention in the past few years. Currently, prognostics concepts lack standard definitions and suffer from ambiguous and inconsistent interpretations. This lack of standards is in part due to the varied end-user requirements for different applications, time scales, available information, domain dynamics, etc. to name a few. The research community has used a variety of metrics largely based on convenience and their respective requirements. Very little attention has been focused on establishing a standardized approach to compare different efforts. This paper presents several new evaluation metrics tailored for prognostics that were recently introduced and were shown to effectively evaluate various algorithms as compared to other conventional metrics. Specifically, this paper presents a detailed discussion on how these metrics should be interpreted and used. These metrics have the capability of incorporating probabilistic uncertainty estimates from prognostic algorithms. In addition to quantitative assessment they also offer a comprehensive visual perspective that can be used in designing the prognostic system. Several methods are suggested to customize these metrics for different applications. Guidelines are provided to help choose one method over another based on distribution characteristics. Various issues faced by prognostics and its performance evaluation are discussed followed by a formal notational framework to help standardize subsequent developments.

  2. On Applying the Prognostic Performance Metrics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saxena, Abhinav; Celaya, Jose; Saha, Bhaskar; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai

    2009-01-01

    Prognostics performance evaluation has gained significant attention in the past few years. As prognostics technology matures and more sophisticated methods for prognostic uncertainty management are developed, a standardized methodology for performance evaluation becomes extremely important to guide improvement efforts in a constructive manner. This paper is in continuation of previous efforts where several new evaluation metrics tailored for prognostics were introduced and were shown to effectively evaluate various algorithms as compared to other conventional metrics. Specifically, this paper presents a detailed discussion on how these metrics should be interpreted and used. Several shortcomings identified, while applying these metrics to a variety of real applications, are also summarized along with discussions that attempt to alleviate these problems. Further, these metrics have been enhanced to include the capability of incorporating probability distribution information from prognostic algorithms as opposed to evaluation based on point estimates only. Several methods have been suggested and guidelines have been provided to help choose one method over another based on probability distribution characteristics. These approaches also offer a convenient and intuitive visualization of algorithm performance with respect to some of these new metrics like prognostic horizon and alpha-lambda performance, and also quantify the corresponding performance while incorporating the uncertainty information.

  3. A prospective study on MRI findings and prognostic factors in athletes with MTSS.

    PubMed

    Moen, M H; Schmikli, S L; Weir, A; Steeneken, V; Stapper, G; de Slegte, R; Tol, J L; Backx, F J G

    2014-02-01

    In medial tibial stress syndrome (MTSS) bone marrow and periosteal edema of the tibia on the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is frequently reported. The relationship between these MRI findings and recovery has not been previously studied. This prospective study describes MRI findings of 52 athletes with MTSS. Baseline characteristics were recorded and recovery was related to these parameters and MRI findings to examine for prognostic factors. Results showed that 43.5% of the symptomatic legs showed bone marrow or periosteal edema. Absence of periosteal and bone marrow edema on MRI was associated with longer recovery (P = 0.033 and P = 0.013). A clinical scoring system for sports activity (SARS score) was significantly higher in the presence of bone marrow edema (P = 0.027). When clinical scoring systems (SARS score and the Lower Extremity Functional Scale) were combined in a model, time to recovery could be predicted substantially (explaining 54% of variance, P = 0.006). In conclusion, in athletes with MTSS, bone marrow or periosteal edema is seen on MRI in 43,5% of the symptomatic legs. Furthermore, periosteal and bone marrow edema on MRI and clinical scoring systems are prognostic factors. Future studies should focus on MRI findings in symptomatic MTSS and compare these with a matched control group.

  4. Prognostic and Predictive Model for Stage II Colon Cancer Patients With Nonemergent Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Chun-Dong; Wang, Ji-Nan; Sui, Bai-Qiang; Zeng, Yong-Ji; Chen, Jun-Qing; Dai, Dong-Qiu

    2016-01-01

    Abstract No ideal prognostic model has been applied to clearly identify which suitable high-risk stage II colon cancer patients with negative margins undergoing nonemergent surgery should receive adjuvant chemotherapy routinely. Clinicopathologic and prognostic data of 333 stage II colon cancer patients who underwent D2 or D3 lymphadenectomy during nonemergent surgery were retrospectively analyzed. Four pathologically determined factors, including adjacent organ involvement (RR 2.831, P = 0.001), histologic differentiation (RR 2.151, P = 0.009), lymphovascular invasion (RR 4.043, P < 0.001), and number of lymph nodes retrieved (RR 2.161, P = 0.011), were identified as independent prognostic factors on multivariate analysis. Importantly, a simple cumulative scoring system clearly categorizing prognostic risk groups was generated: risk score = ∑ coefficient’ × status (AOI + histological differentiated + lymphovascular invasion + LNs retrieved). Our new prognostic model may provide valuable information on the impact of lymphovascular invasion, as well as powerfully and reliably predicting prognosis and recurrence for this particular cohort of patients. This model may identify suitable patients with an R0 resection who should receive routine postoperative adjuvant therapy and may help clinicians to facilitate individualized treatment. In this study, we aim to provide an ideal and quantifiable method for clinical decision making in the nonemergent surgical treatment of stage II colon cancer. Our prognostic and predictive model should be applied in multicenter, prospective studies with large sample sizes, in order to obtain a more reliable clinical recommendation. PMID:26735527

  5. Prognostication in Acutely Admitted Older Patients by Nurses and Physicians

    PubMed Central

    Buurman, Bianca M.; van Munster, Barbara C.; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Levi, Marcel; de Rooij, Sophia E.

    2008-01-01

    Background The process of prognostication has not been described for acutely hospitalized older patients. Objective To investigate (1) which factors are associated with 90-day mortality risk in a group of acutely hospitalized older medical patients, and (2) whether adding a clinical impression score of nurses or physicians improves the discriminatory ability of mortality prediction. Design Prospective cohort study. Participants Four hundred and sixty-three medical patients 65 years or older acutely admitted from November 1, 2002, through July 1, 2005, to a 1024-bed tertiary university teaching hospital. Measurements At admission, the attending nurse and physician were asked to give a clinical impression score for the illness the patient was admitted for. This score ranged from 1 (high possibility of a good outcome) until 10 (high possibility of a bad outcome, including mortality). Of all patients baseline characteristics and clinical parameters were collected. Mortality was registered up to 90 days after admission. Main Results In total, 23.8% ( = 110) of patients died within 90 days of admission. Four parameters were significantly associated with mortality risk: functional impairment, diagnosis malignancy, co-morbidities and high urea nitrogen serum levels. The AUC for the baseline model which included these risk factors (model 1) was 0.76 (95% CI 0.71 to 0.82). The AUC for the model using the risk factors and the clinical impression score of the physician (model 2) was 0.77 (0.71 to 0.82). The AUC for the model using the risk factors and the clinical impression score of the nurse (model 3) was 0.76 (0.71 to 0.82) and the AUC for the model, including the baseline covariates and the clinical impression score of both nurses and physicians was 0.77 (0.72 to 0.82). Adding clinical impression scores to model 1 did not significantly improve its accuracy. Conclusion A set of four clinical variables predicted mortality risk in acutely hospitalized older patients

  6. ‘At-risk’ places: inequities in the distribution of environmental stressors and prescription rates of mental health medications in Glasgow, Scotland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maantay, Juliana; Maroko, Andrew

    2015-11-01

    Using geospatial analytical methods, this study examines the association between one aspect of the built environment, namely, the concentration of vacant and derelict land (VDL), and the prevalence of mental health disorders (using the proxy variable of mental health medication prescription rates) in Glasgow, Scotland. This study builds on our previous research, which demonstrated the spatial correspondence between the locations of VDL in Glasgow and several physical health outcomes. Numerous studies of other locales have found similar correspondence between different elements of the built environment and various health outcomes. This is the first study of its kind to look at the spatial concentration of vacant and derelict land in relation to mental health, socio-economic indicators, environmental justice, and health inequities. The findings of this study demonstrate an inequity with respect to the distribution of vacant and derelict land, as confirmed by Pearson correlations between VDL density and deprivation (r = .521, p < .001). This suggests that many deprived communities are disproportionately burdened with environmental impacts and psycho-social stressors associated with this land use. Regression analyses show a significant positive association between the proportion of the population who were prescribed medication for anxiety, depression, or psychosis and the density of vacant and derelict land while adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics. This indicates that areas with higher VDL densities tend to exhibit higher rates of mental health issues. Based on these findings, strategies for constructive re-use of VDL are proposed.

  7. A New Injury Severity Score for Predicting the Length of Hospital Stay in Multiple Trauma Patients

    PubMed Central

    Salehi, Oveis; Tabibzadeh Dezfuli, Seyed Ashkan; Namazi, Seyed Shojaeddin; Dehghan Khalili, Maryam; Saeedi, Morteza

    2016-01-01

    Background: Trauma is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among individuals under 40 and is the third main cause for death throughout the world. Objectives: This study was designed to compare our modified injury scoring systems with the current injury severity score (ISS) from the viewpoint of its predictive value to estimate the duration of hospitalization in trauma patients. Patients and Methods: This analytical cross-sectional study was performed at the general referral trauma center of Bandar-Abbas in southern Iran from March 2009 to March 2010. The study population consisted of all the trauma patients referred to the emergency department (ED). Demographic data, type and severity of injury, duration of admission, Glasgow coma scale (GCS), and revised trauma score (RTS) were recorded. The injury severity score (ISS) and NISS were calculated. The length of hospital stay was recorded during the patients follow-up and compared with ISS, NISS and modified injury scoring systems. Results: Five hundred eleven patients (446 males (87.3%) and 65 females (12.7%)) were enrolled in the study. The mean age was 22 ± 4.2 for males and 29.15 ± 3.8 for females. The modified NISS had a relatively strong correlation with the length of hospitalization (r = 0.79). The formula below explains the length of hospitalization according to MNISS score. Duration of hospitalization was 0.415 + (2.991) MNISS. Duration of hospitalization had a strong correlation with MISS (r = 0.805, R2: 0.65). Duration of hospitalization was 0.113 + (7.915) MISS. Conclusions: This new suggested scale shows a better value to predict patients’ length of hospital stay compared to ISS and NISS. However, future studies with larger sample sizes and more confounding factors such as prehospital procedures, intubation and other procedures during admission, should be designed to examine these scoring systems and confirm the results of our study. PMID:27218048

  8. Making sense of scoring systems in community acquired pneumonia.

    PubMed

    Niederman, Michael S

    2009-04-01

    The site of care decision is one of the most important in the management of patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Several scoring systems have been developed to predict mortality risk in CAP, and these have been applied to guide physicians about whether patients should be admitted to the hospital or to the intensive care unit (ICU). However, these tools were initially developed to predict mortality risk, and studies have demonstrated that the risk for death does not always equate with need for hospitalization or ICU care. The most widely studied scoring systems are the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) and the CURB-65 (a modification of the British Thoracic Society rule). Each has advantages and limitations, with the more-complex PSI developed to identify low-mortality risk patients, and the CURB-65, which is simpler, being developed to easily identify more severely ill individuals. No scoring system can replace clinical judgement about the admission decision, and prospective studies have shown that physicians still admit at least 30-60% of low mortality risk patients when using the PSI to guide this decision. Limitations of these prognostic tools include their variable utility in the elderly, and their failure to include certain comorbidities (COPD, immune suppression) and social factors, in their calculations. The need for ICU care is also not well-defined by measuring the PSI or CURB-65, and other tools such as those developed by the Infectious Diseases Society of America/American Thoracic Society (IDSA/ATS) guideline committee and the SMART-COP rule may have greater utility for this purpose. In the future, measurements of serum biomarkers, such as procalcitonin, may augment the information provided by prognostic scoring tools for patients with CAP.

  9. Prognostic Disclosures to Children: A Historical Perspective.

    PubMed

    Sisk, Bryan A; Bluebond-Langner, Myra; Wiener, Lori; Mack, Jennifer; Wolfe, Joanne

    2016-09-01

    Prognostic disclosure to children has perpetually challenged clinicians and parents. In this article, we review the historical literature on prognostic disclosure to children in the United States using cancer as an illness model. Before 1948, there was virtually no literature focused on prognostic disclosure to children. As articles began to be published in the 1950s and 1960s, many clinicians and researchers initially recommended a "protective" approach to disclosure, where children were shielded from the harms of bad news. We identified 4 main arguments in the literature at this time supporting this "protective" approach. By the late 1960s, however, a growing number of clinicians and researchers were recommending a more "open" approach, where children were included in discussions of diagnosis, which at the time was often synonymous with a terminal prognosis. Four different arguments in the literature were used at this time supporting this "open" approach. Then, by the late 1980s, the recommended approach to prognostic disclosure in pediatrics shifted largely from "never tell" to "always tell." In recent years, however, there has been a growing appreciation for the complexity of prognostic disclosure in pediatrics. Current understanding of pediatric disclosure does not lead to simple "black-and-white" recommendations for disclosure practices. As with most difficult questions, we are left to balance competing factors on a case-by-case basis. We highlight 4 categories of current considerations related to prognostic disclosure in pediatrics, and we offer several approaches to prognostic disclosure for clinicians who care for these young patients and their families. PMID:27561728

  10. Prognostic Disclosures to Children: A Historical Perspective

    PubMed Central

    Sisk, Bryan A.; Bluebond-Langner, Myra; Wiener, Lori; Mack, Jennifer; Wolfe, Joanne

    2016-01-01

    Prognostic disclosure to children has perpetually challenged clinicians and parents. In this article, we review the historical literature on prognostic disclosure to children in the United States using cancer as an illness model. Prior to 1948, there was virtually no literature focused on prognostic disclosure to children. As articles began to be published in the 1950s and 1960s, many clinicians and researchers initially recommended a “protective” approach to disclosure, where children were shielded from the harms of bad news. We identified four main arguments in the literature at this time supporting this “protective” approach. By the late 1960s, however, a growing number of clinicians and researchers were recommending a more “open” approach, where children were included in discussions of diagnosis, which at the time was often synonymous with a terminal prognosis. Four different arguments in the literature were used at this time supporting this “open” approach. Then by the late 1980s, the recommended approach to prognostic disclosure in pediatrics shifted largely from “never tell” to “always tell”. In recent years, however, there has been a growing appreciation for the complexity of prognostic disclosure in pediatrics. Current understanding of pediatric disclosure does not lead to simple “black and white” recommendations for disclosure practices. As with most difficult questions, we are left to balance competing factors on a case-by-case basis. We highlight four categories of current considerations related to prognostic disclosure in pediatrics, and we offer several approaches to prognostic disclosure for clinicians who care for these young patients and their families. PMID:27561728

  11. Acute physiology, age, and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) III score is an alternative efficient predictor of mortality in burn patients.

    PubMed

    Tanaka, Yohei; Shimizu, Mikio; Hirabayashi, Hidemitsu

    2007-05-01

    The present study was performed to evaluate the prognostic value of the acute physiology, age, chronic health evaluation (APACHE) III score in burn patients. We hypothesised that APACHE III score efficiently predicts mortality of burn patients as it reflects the physiological changes in the acute phase and the severity of the underlying illness. Data such as age, gender, inhalation injury, total burn surface area (TBSA), burn index (BI), prognostic burn index (PBI), APACHE III score and outcome of 105 hospitalised patients were analysed retrospectively. TBSA, BI, PBI, and APACHE III score in the mortality group were significantly higher than those of surviving group. The mean scores of surviving versus mortality groups were as follows: TBSA, 19.2+/-17.8% versus 69.1+/-28.4%, p<0.0001; BI, 12.8+/-13.1% versus 66.8+/-28.6%, p<0.0001; PBI, 68.8+/-26.0% versus 124.4+/-33.6%, p<0.0001; APACHE III score, 28.4+/-22.2% versus 71.3+/-32.1%, p<0.0001. PBI and APACHE III score showed marked associations between higher scores and higher mortality. APACHE III score showed a significant correlation with PBI (p<0.0001). The present study suggested that APACHE III score could be used as an alternative efficient predictor of mortality in burn patients.

  12. Retrospective analysis of molecular scores for the prediction of distant recurrence according to baseline risk factors.

    PubMed

    Sestak, Ivana; Dowsett, Mitch; Ferree, Sean; Baehner, Frederick L; Cuzick, Jack

    2016-08-01

    Clinical variables and several gene signature profiles have been investigated for the prediction of (distant) recurrence in several trials. These molecular markers are significantly correlated with overall and late distant recurrences. Here, we retrospectively explore whether age and body mass index (BMI) affect the prediction of these molecular scores for distant recurrence in postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer in the transATAC trial. 940 postmenopausal women for whom the Clinical Treatment Score (CTS), immunohistochemical markers (IHC4), Oncotype Recurrence Score (RS), and the Prosigna Risk of Recurrence Score (ROR) were available were included in this retrospective analysis. Conventional BMI groups were used (N = 865), and age was split into equal tertiles (N = 940). Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine the effect of a molecular score for the prediction of distant recurrence according to BMI and age groups. In both the univariate and bivariate analyses, the effect size of the IHC4 and RS was strongest in women aged 59.8 years or younger. Trends tests for age were significant for the IHC4 and RS, but not for the CTS and ROR, for which most prognostic information was added in women aged 60 years or older. The CTS and ROR scores added significant prognostic information in all three BMI groups. In both the univariate and bivariate analyses, the IHC4 provided the most prognostic information in women with a BMI lower than 25 kg/m(2), whereas the RS did not add prognostic information for distant recurrence in women with a BMI of 30 kg/m(2) or above. Molecular scores are increasingly used in women with breast cancer to assess recurrence risk. We have shown that the effect size of the molecular scores is significantly different across age groups, but not across BMI groups. The results from this retrospective analysis may be incorporated in the identification of women who may benefit most from the use of these

  13. Joint NCCTG and NABTC prognostic factors analysis for high-grade recurrent glioma

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Wenting; Lamborn, Kathleen R.; Buckner, Jan C.; Novotny, Paul J.; Chang, Susan M.; O'Fallon, Judith R.; Jaeckle, Kurt A.; Prados, Michael D.

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine prognostic factors in patients with high-grade recurrent glioma for 3 outcome variables (overall survival, progression-free survival [PFS], and PFS rate 6 months after study registration [PFS6]). Data from 15 North Central Cancer Treatment Group (NCCTG) trials (n = 469, 1980–2004) and 12 North American Brain Tumor Consortium (NABTC) trials (n = 596, 1998–2002) were included. Eighteen prognostic variables were considered including type of treatment center (community/academic) and initial low-grade histology (yes/no). Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA), Cox proportional hazards, and logistic regression models with bootstrap resampling were used to identify prognostic variables. Longer survival was associated with last known grade (Grade) of III, younger age, ECOG performance score (PS) of 0, shorter time from initial diagnosis (DxTime), and no baseline steroid use. Factors associated with longer PFS were Grade III and shorter DxTime. For patients without temozolomide as part of the treatment regimen, the only factor associated with better PFS6 was Grade III, although DxTime was important in RPA and PS was important in logistic regression. Grade was the most important prognostic factor for all three endpoints regardless of the statistical method used. Other important variables for one or more endpoints included age, PS, and DxTime. Neither type of treatment center nor initial low-grade histology was identified as a major predictor for any endpoint. PMID:20150383

  14. A Distributed Prognostic Health Management Architecture

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bhaskar, Saha; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces a generic distributed prognostic health management (PHM) architecture with specific application to the electrical power systems domain. Current state-of-the-art PHM systems are mostly centralized in nature, where all the processing is reliant on a single processor. This can lead to loss of functionality in case of a crash of the central processor or monitor. Furthermore, with increases in the volume of sensor data as well as the complexity of algorithms, traditional centralized systems become unsuitable for successful deployment, and efficient distributed architectures are required. A distributed architecture though, is not effective unless there is an algorithmic framework to take advantage of its unique abilities. The health management paradigm envisaged here incorporates a heterogeneous set of system components monitored by a varied suite of sensors and a particle filtering (PF) framework that has the power and the flexibility to adapt to the different diagnostic and prognostic needs. Both the diagnostic and prognostic tasks are formulated as a particle filtering problem in order to explicitly represent and manage uncertainties; however, typically the complexity of the prognostic routine is higher than the computational power of one computational element ( CE). Individual CEs run diagnostic routines until the system variable being monitored crosses beyond a nominal threshold, upon which it coordinates with other networked CEs to run the prognostic routine in a distributed fashion. Implementation results from a network of distributed embedded devices monitoring a prototypical aircraft electrical power system are presented, where the CEs are Sun Microsystems Small Programmable Object Technology (SPOT) devices.

  15. Prognostic factors in patients with jaw sarcomas.

    PubMed

    Vadillo, Rafael Morales; Contreras, Sonia Julia Sacsaquispe; Canales, Janet Ofelia Guevara

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study was to identify the prognostic factors related to the survival of patients with sarcomas of the jaw treated in the Dr. Eduardo Caceres Graziani National Institute for Neoplastic Diseases, Lima, Peru. Age, gender, delay in consultation, diagnostic delay, therapeutic delay, tumor size, tumor location, facial asymmetry, pain, treatment type, and histopathological diagnosis were all evaluated as possible prognostic factors that would influence survival in those with jaw sarcomas. In the analysis, the following was used: mortality tables, Kaplan-Meier's product-limit method, log-rank, and Breslow and Tarone-Ware tests; for the prognostic factors, Cox's Regression Model was used. The overall survival rate, with the patient being free from disease at two years, was 55%, and that at five years was 45%. In the independent analysis of the prognostic factors, four variables were statistically significant in influencing survival: gender (p = 0.043), histopathologic diagnosis (p = 0.019), tumor location (p = 0.019), and treatment type (p = 0.030). According to Cox's Regression Model for the multivariate analysis, statistically significant prognostic factors were: gender (p = 0.086), tumor location (p = 0.020), and treatment type (p = 0.092). Thus, the variables of gender, tumor location, and treatment type were determined to be predictive factors for prognosis of survival.

  16. Evaluating Algorithm Performance Metrics Tailored for Prognostics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saxena, Abhinav; Celaya, Jose; Saha, Bhaskar; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai

    2009-01-01

    Prognostics has taken a center stage in Condition Based Maintenance (CBM) where it is desired to estimate Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of the system so that remedial measures may be taken in advance to avoid catastrophic events or unwanted downtimes. Validation of such predictions is an important but difficult proposition and a lack of appropriate evaluation methods renders prognostics meaningless. Evaluation methods currently used in the research community are not standardized and in many cases do not sufficiently assess key performance aspects expected out of a prognostics algorithm. In this paper we introduce several new evaluation metrics tailored for prognostics and show that they can effectively evaluate various algorithms as compared to other conventional metrics. Specifically four algorithms namely; Relevance Vector Machine (RVM), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Polynomial Regression (PR) are compared. These algorithms vary in complexity and their ability to manage uncertainty around predicted estimates. Results show that the new metrics rank these algorithms in different manner and depending on the requirements and constraints suitable metrics may be chosen. Beyond these results, these metrics offer ideas about how metrics suitable to prognostics may be designed so that the evaluation procedure can be standardized. 1

  17. Tissue prognostic biomarkers in primary cutaneous melanoma.

    PubMed

    Mandalà, Mario; Massi, Daniela

    2014-03-01

    Cutaneous melanoma (CM) causes the greatest number of skin cancer-related deaths worldwide. Predicting CM prognosis is important to determine the need for further investigation, counseling of patients, to guide appropriate management (particularly the need for postoperative adjuvant therapy), and for assignment of risk status in groups of patients entering clinical trials. Since recurrence rate is largely independent from stages defined by morphological and morphometric criteria, there is a strong need for identification of additional robust prognostic factors to support decision-making processes. Most data on prognostic biomarkers in melanoma have been evaluated in tumor tissue samples by conventional morphology and immunohistochemistry (IHC) as well as DNA and RNA analyses. In the present review, we critically summarize main high-quality studies investigating IHC-based protein biomarkers of melanoma outcome according to Reporting Recommendations for Tumor Marker Prognostic Studies (REMARK)-derived criteria. Pathways have been classified and conveyed in the "biologic road" previously described by Hanahan and Weinberg. Data derived from genomic and transcriptomic technologies have been critically reviewed to better understand if any of investigated proteins or gene signatures should be incorporated into clinical practice or still remain a field of melanoma research. Despite a wide body of research, no molecular prognostic biomarker has yet been translated into clinical practice. Conventional tissue biomarkers, such as Breslow thickness, ulceration, mitotic rate and lymph node positivity, remain the backbone prognostic indicators in melanoma.

  18. Automated Essay Scoring versus Human Scoring: A Correlational Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Jinhao; Brown, Michelle Stallone

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of the current study was to analyze the relationship between automated essay scoring (AES) and human scoring in order to determine the validity and usefulness of AES for large-scale placement tests. Specifically, a correlational research design was used to examine the correlations between AES performance and human raters' performance.…

  19. Scoring systems for outcome prediction in patients with perforated peptic ulcer

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Patients with perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) often present with acute, severe illness that carries a high risk for morbidity and mortality. Mortality ranges from 3-40% and several prognostic scoring systems have been suggested. The aim of this study was to review the available scoring systems for PPU patients, and to assert if there is evidence to prefer one to the other. Material and methods We searched PubMed for the mesh terms “perforated peptic ulcer”, “scoring systems”, “risk factors”, ”outcome prediction”, “mortality”, ”morbidity” and the combinations of these terms. In addition to relevant scores introduced in the past (e.g. Boey score), we included recent studies published between January 2000 and December 2012) that reported on scoring systems for prediction of morbidity and mortality in PPU patients. Results A total of ten different scoring systems used to predict outcome in PPU patients were identified; the Boey score, the Hacettepe score, the Jabalpur score the peptic ulcer perforation (PULP) score, the ASA score, the Charlson comorbidity index, the sepsis score, the Mannheim Peritonitis Index (MPI), the Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), the simplified acute physiology score II (SAPS II), the Mortality probability models II (MPM II), the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity physical sub-score (POSSUM-phys score). Only four of the scores were specifically constructed for PPU patients. In five studies the accuracy of outcome prediction of different scoring systems was evaluated by receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) analysis, and the corresponding area under the curve (AUC) among studies compared. Considerable variation in performance both between different scores and between different studies was found, with the lowest and highest AUC reported between 0.63 and 0.98, respectively. Conclusion While the Boey score and the ASA score

  20. The prognostic value of histopathologic grading parameters and microvessel density in patients with early squamous cell carcinoma of the uterine cervix.

    PubMed

    Graflund, Marianne; Sorbe, B; Hussein, A; Bryne, M; Karlsson, M

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the prognostic importance of clinical and histopathologic factors, including malignancy grading systems (MGS), partial index (PI), invasive front grading (IFG), and microvessel density. A complete geographic series of 172 early stage (FIGO I-II) cervical carcinomas treated by Wertheim-Meigs surgery during the period 1965-1990 was studied. The patients were followed up for at least 10 years. Significant prognostic factors for disease-free survival were lymph node status (P < 0.0000001), radical surgical margins (P = 0.00003), and tumor size (P = 0.008). In a multivariate Cox analysis it was shown that lymph node status was the single most important prognostic factor with regard to disease-free survival. The total MGS and the PI scores were highly significantly (P = 0.0001) associated with pelvic lymph node metastases and disease-free survival rate in squamous cell carcinomas. The MGS and the PI systems were superior to the IFG system in predicting lymph node metastases. The total IFG score was also a statistically highly significant (P = 0.003) prognostic factor with regard to disease-free survival in both univariate and multivariate analyses. Microvessel density was a nonsignificant prognostic factor. There was a highly significant (P = 0.002) association between vascular space invasion of tumor cells and the presence of lymph node metastases. In conclusion, histopathologic malignancy grading systems provide valuable prognostic information in patients with early stage squamous cell carcinomas of the uterine cervix. PMID:11860534

  1. Venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in adult respiratory failure: Scores for mortality prediction.

    PubMed

    Hsin, Chun-Hsien; Wu, Meng-Yu; Huang, Chung-Chi; Kao, Kuo-Chin; Lin, Pyng-Jing

    2016-06-01

    × (immunocompromised status). Compared with the 3 scores, the institutional model had a significantly higher AUROC (0.779; P < 0.001). The 3 published scores provide valuable information about the poor prognostic factors for adult respiratory ECMO. Among the score parameters, duration of mechanical ventilation, immunocompromised status, and severity of organ dysfunction may be the most important prognostic factors of VV-ECMO used for adult respiratory failure. PMID:27336901

  2. Prognostic factors in pediatric cases of drowning and near-drowning.

    PubMed

    Orlowski, J P

    1979-05-01

    Ninety-three cases of drowning or near-drowning in the pediatric age group between 1972 and 1976 were reviewed. A scoring system for prognostic factors was developed using one point for each of five unfavorable factors involved in the drowning or near-drowning of each patient. The prognostic factors were 1) age less than three years; 2) maximum submersion time estimated longer than five minutes; 3) resuscitation not attempted for at least ten minutes after rescue; 4) patient in coma on admission to hospital, and 5) arterial blood pH of less than or equal to 7.10. This scoring system significantly predicted the eventual outcome of patients who had experienced the postsubmersion syndrome. Patients with scores of less than or equal to 2 had a 90% chance of full recovery; those with scores of greater than or equal to 3 had only a 5% probability of survival. The early institution of resuscitative efforts was the single most important factor influencing survival.

  3. Prospective Cohort Study Evaluating the Prognostic Value of Simple EEG Parameters in Postanoxic Coma.

    PubMed

    Azabou, Eric; Fischer, Catherine; Mauguiere, François; Vaugier, Isabelle; Annane, Djillali; Sharshar, Tarek; Lofaso, Fréderic

    2016-01-01

    We prospectively studied early bedside standard EEG characteristics in 61 acute postanoxic coma patients. Five simple EEG features, namely, isoelectric, discontinuous, nonreactive to intense auditory and nociceptive stimuli, dominant delta frequency, and occurrence of paroxysms were classified yes or no. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of each of these variables for predicting an unfavorable outcome, defined as death, persistent vegetative state, minimally conscious state, or severe neurological disability, as assessed 1 year after coma onset were computed as well as Synek's score. The outcome was unfavorable in 56 (91.8%) patients. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and AUC of nonreactive EEG for predicting an unfavorable outcome were 84%, 80%, 98%, 31%, and 0.82, respectively; and were all very close to the ones of Synek score>3, which were 82%, 80%, 98%, 29%, and 0.81, respectively. Specificities for predicting an unfavorable outcome were 100% for isoelectric, discontinuous, or dominant delta activity EEG. These 3 last features were constantly associated to unfavorable outcome. Absent EEG reactivity strongly predicted an unfavorable outcome in postanoxic coma, and performed as accurate as a Synek score>3. Analyzing characteristics of some simple EEG features may easily help nonneurophysiologist physicians to investigate prognostic issue of postanoxic coma patient. In this study (a) discontinuous, isoelectric, or delta-dominant EEG were constantly associated with unfavorable outcome and (b) nonreactive EEG performed prognostic as accurate as a Synek score>3.

  4. Usefulness of Aquaporin 1 as a Prognostic Marker in a Prospective Cohort of Malignant Mesotheliomas

    PubMed Central

    Driml, Jack; Pulford, Emily; Moffat, David; Karapetis, Christos; Kao, Steven; Griggs, Kim; Henderson, Douglas Warrington; Klebe, Sonja

    2016-01-01

    (1) Background: Malignant mesothelioma (MM) is an aggressive tumour of the serosal membranes, associated with exposure to asbestos. Survival is generally poor, but prognostication for individual patients is difficult. We recently described Aquaporin 1 (AQP1) as independent prognostic factor in two separate retrospective cohorts of MM patients. Here we assess the usefulness of AQP1 prospectively, and determine the inter-observer agreement in assessing AQP1 scores; (2) Methods: A total of 104 consecutive cases of MM were included. Sufficient tissue for immunohistochemistry was available for 100 cases, and these cases were labelled for AQP1. Labelling was assessed by two pathologists. Complete clinical information and follow up was available for 91 cases; (3) Results: Labelling of ≥50% of tumour cells for AQP indicated improved prognosis in a univariate model (median survival 13 versus 8 months, p = 0.008), but the significance was decreased in a multivariate analysis. Scoring for AQP1 was robust, with an inter-observer kappa value of 0.722, indicating substantial agreement between observers; (4) Conclusion: AQP1 is a useful prognostic marker that can be easily incorporated in existing diagnostic immunohistochemical panels and which can be reliably interpreted by different pathologists. PMID:27376267

  5. Usefulness of Aquaporin 1 as a Prognostic Marker in a Prospective Cohort of Malignant Mesotheliomas.

    PubMed

    Driml, Jack; Pulford, Emily; Moffat, David; Karapetis, Christos; Kao, Steven; Griggs, Kim; Henderson, Douglas Warrington; Klebe, Sonja

    2016-01-01

    (1) BACKGROUND: Malignant mesothelioma (MM) is an aggressive tumour of the serosal membranes, associated with exposure to asbestos. Survival is generally poor, but prognostication for individual patients is difficult. We recently described Aquaporin 1 (AQP1) as independent prognostic factor in two separate retrospective cohorts of MM patients. Here we assess the usefulness of AQP1 prospectively, and determine the inter-observer agreement in assessing AQP1 scores; (2) METHODS: A total of 104 consecutive cases of MM were included. Sufficient tissue for immunohistochemistry was available for 100 cases, and these cases were labelled for AQP1. Labelling was assessed by two pathologists. Complete clinical information and follow up was available for 91 cases; (3) RESULTS: Labelling of ≥50% of tumour cells for AQP indicated improved prognosis in a univariate model (median survival 13 versus 8 months, p = 0.008), but the significance was decreased in a multivariate analysis. Scoring for AQP1 was robust, with an inter-observer kappa value of 0.722, indicating substantial agreement between observers; (4) CONCLUSION: AQP1 is a useful prognostic marker that can be easily incorporated in existing diagnostic immunohistochemical panels and which can be reliably interpreted by different pathologists. PMID:27376267

  6. Prognostic utility of coronary computed tomographic angiography

    PubMed Central

    Otaki, Yuka; Berman, Daniel S.; Min, James K.

    2013-01-01

    Coronary computed tomographic angiography (CCTA) employing CT scanners of 64-detector rows or greater represents a noninvasive method that enables accurate detection and exclusion of anatomically obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD), providing excellent diagnostic information when compared to invasive angiography. There are numerous potential advantages of CCTA beyond simply luminal stenosis assessment including quantification of atherosclerotic plaque volume as well as assessment of plaque composition, extent, location and distribution. In recent years, an array of studies has evaluated the prognostic utility of CCTA findings of CAD for the prediction of major adverse cardiac events, all-cause death and plaque instability. This prognostic information enhances risk stratification and, if properly acted upon, may improve medical therapy and/or behavioral changes that may enhance event-free survival. The goal of the present article is to summarize the current status of the prognostic utility of CCTA findings of CAD. PMID:23809386

  7. Classification of current scoring functions.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jie; Wang, Renxiao

    2015-03-23

    Scoring functions are a class of computational methods widely applied in structure-based drug design for evaluating protein-ligand interactions. Dozens of scoring functions have been published since the early 1990s. In literature, scoring functions are typically classified as force-field-based, empirical, and knowledge-based. This classification scheme has been quoted for more than a decade and is still repeatedly quoted by some recent publications. Unfortunately, it does not reflect the recent progress in this field. Besides, the naming convention used for describing different types of scoring functions has been somewhat jumbled in literature, which could be confusing for newcomers to this field. Here, we express our viewpoint on an up-to-date classification scheme and appropriate naming convention for current scoring functions. We propose that they can be classified into physics-based methods, empirical scoring functions, knowledge-based potentials, and descriptor-based scoring functions. We also outline the major difference and connections between different categories of scoring functions. PMID:25647463

  8. The Machine Scoring of Writing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCurry, Doug

    2010-01-01

    This article provides an introduction to the kind of computer software that is used to score student writing in some high stakes testing programs, and that is being promoted as a teaching and learning tool to schools. It sketches the state of play with machines for the scoring of writing, and describes how these machines work and what they do.…

  9. Trends in Classroom Observation Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Casabianca, Jodi M.; Lockwood, J. R.; McCaffrey, Daniel F.

    2015-01-01

    Observations and ratings of classroom teaching and interactions collected over time are susceptible to trends in both the quality of instruction and rater behavior. These trends have potential implications for inferences about teaching and for study design. We use scores on the Classroom Assessment Scoring System-Secondary (CLASS-S) protocol from…

  10. High Scores but Low Skills

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Liqun; Neilson, William S.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper college admissions are based on test scores and students can exert two types of effort: real learning and exam preparation. The former improves skills but the latter is more effective in raising test scores. In this setting the students with the lowest skills are no longer the ones with the lowest aptitude, but instead are the ones…

  11. Skyrocketing Scores: An Urban Legend

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Krashen, Stephen

    2005-01-01

    A new urban legend claims, "As a result of the state dropping bilingual education, test scores in California skyrocketed." Krashen disputes this theory, pointing out that other factors offer more logical explanations of California's recent improvements in SAT-9 scores. He discusses research on the effects of California's Proposition 227, which…

  12. Optimum Reliability of Gain Scores.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharma, K. K.; Gupta, J. K.

    1986-01-01

    This paper gives a mathematical treatment to findings of Zimmerman and Williams and establishes a minimum reliability for gain scores when the pretest and posttest have equal reliabilities and equal standard deviations. It discusses the behavior of the reliability of gain scores in terms of variations in other test parameters. (Author/LMO)

  13. More than Just Test Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levin, Henry M.

    2012-01-01

    Around the world we hear considerable talk about creating world-class schools. Usually the term refers to schools whose students get very high scores on the international comparisons of student achievement such as PISA or TIMSS. The practice of restricting the meaning of exemplary schools to the narrow criterion of achievement scores is usually…

  14. Interpreting Linked Psychomotor Performance Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Looney, Marilyn A.

    2013-01-01

    Given that equating/linking applications are now appearing in kinesiology literature, this article provides an overview of the different types of linked test scores: equated, concordant, and predicted. It also addresses the different types of evidence required to determine whether the scores from two different field tests (measuring the same…

  15. Classification of current scoring functions.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jie; Wang, Renxiao

    2015-03-23

    Scoring functions are a class of computational methods widely applied in structure-based drug design for evaluating protein-ligand interactions. Dozens of scoring functions have been published since the early 1990s. In literature, scoring functions are typically classified as force-field-based, empirical, and knowledge-based. This classification scheme has been quoted for more than a decade and is still repeatedly quoted by some recent publications. Unfortunately, it does not reflect the recent progress in this field. Besides, the naming convention used for describing different types of scoring functions has been somewhat jumbled in literature, which could be confusing for newcomers to this field. Here, we express our viewpoint on an up-to-date classification scheme and appropriate naming convention for current scoring functions. We propose that they can be classified into physics-based methods, empirical scoring functions, knowledge-based potentials, and descriptor-based scoring functions. We also outline the major difference and connections between different categories of scoring functions.

  16. [Prognostic factors in Guillain-Barré syndrome].

    PubMed

    Kaida, Kenichi

    2013-01-01

    The prognosis of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is not as good as might be expected. Among GBS patients, 30% do not respond to intravenous immunoglobulin therapy (IVIg) and 10% may worsen after initial treatment (treatment-related fluctuation). Recent prospective trials show that 16% of GBS patients are unable to walk independently a year after onset of the disease. The prognosis of GBS is influenced by clinical, electrophysiological and biological factors, of which the clinical factors are most important. The Erasmus GBS Respiratory Insufficiency Score (EGRIS) and the modified EGOS (Erasmus GBS Outcome Score) are very useful for prediction of mechanical ventilation or aided walking. A small increase in serum IgG (delta IgG) two weeks after IVIg treatment is useful as a biological prognostic marker that is significantly associated with slow recovery and aided walking at 6 months. Use of these factors makes it possible to predict the prognosis of GBS patients, and to identify patients with a poor prognosis in the early phase of the disease and provide these patients with intensive treatment. An accurate prediction of the level of disability is important for improvement of the prognosis of GBS.

  17. D-score: a search engine independent MD-score.

    PubMed

    Vaudel, Marc; Breiter, Daniela; Beck, Florian; Rahnenführer, Jörg; Martens, Lennart; Zahedi, René P

    2013-03-01

    While peptides carrying PTMs are routinely identified in gel-free MS, the localization of the PTMs onto the peptide sequences remains challenging. Search engine scores of secondary peptide matches have been used in different approaches in order to infer the quality of site inference, by penalizing the localization whenever the search engine similarly scored two candidate peptides with different site assignments. In the present work, we show how the estimation of posterior error probabilities for peptide candidates allows the estimation of a PTM score called the D-score, for multiple search engine studies. We demonstrate the applicability of this score to three popular search engines: Mascot, OMSSA, and X!Tandem, and evaluate its performance using an already published high resolution data set of synthetic phosphopeptides. For those peptides with phosphorylation site inference uncertainty, the number of spectrum matches with correctly localized phosphorylation increased by up to 25.7% when compared to using Mascot alone, although the actual increase depended on the fragmentation method used. Since this method relies only on search engine scores, it can be readily applied to the scoring of the localization of virtually any modification at no additional experimental or in silico cost.

  18. Prognostic Factors in Childhood Leukemia (ALL or AML)

    MedlinePlus

    ... for childhood leukemias Prognostic factors in childhood leukemia (ALL or AML) Certain factors that can affect a ... myelogenous leukemia (AML). Prognostic factors for children with ALL Children with ALL are often divided into risk ...

  19. [Power and everyday life in a lunatic asylum environment - a case example from Glasgow at the beginning of the 20th century].

    PubMed

    Gründler, Jens

    In this article the focus of analysis lies on power relations in everyday life in one of Glasgow's Pauper Lunatic Asylums at the turn of the twentieth century. Taking a sample of patient case files I examine the daily processes of negotiation between inmates and their relatives, physicians, attendants and nurses as well as the poor law administration. Some cases especially exemplify the complex relationships between the actors. They show which opportunities and boundaries existed for "power brokering" for the more powerless. At the same time these cases illustrate the formal and practical limits of enforcement by doctors and nursing staff. Without turning a blind eve to hierarchies and power imbalances the analysis shows that even in settings like "total institutions" power remains volatile. Even there the more powerful actors have to actualize, seize and prevail on a regular basis.

  20. [Power and everyday life in a lunatic asylum environment - a case example from Glasgow at the beginning of the 20th century].

    PubMed

    Gründler, Jens

    In this article the focus of analysis lies on power relations in everyday life in one of Glasgow's Pauper Lunatic Asylums at the turn of the twentieth century. Taking a sample of patient case files I examine the daily processes of negotiation between inmates and their relatives, physicians, attendants and nurses as well as the poor law administration. Some cases especially exemplify the complex relationships between the actors. They show which opportunities and boundaries existed for "power brokering" for the more powerless. At the same time these cases illustrate the formal and practical limits of enforcement by doctors and nursing staff. Without turning a blind eve to hierarchies and power imbalances the analysis shows that even in settings like "total institutions" power remains volatile. Even there the more powerful actors have to actualize, seize and prevail on a regular basis. PMID:27501547

  1. Molecular epidemiology of human rotaviruses. Analysis of outbreaks of acute gastroenteritis in Glasgow and the west of Scotland 1981/82 and 1982/83.

    PubMed

    Follett, E A; Sanders, R C; Beards, G M; Hundley, F; Desselberger, U

    1984-04-01

    The molecular epidemiology of rotavirus infections in Glasgow and the west of Scotland during 1981/82 and 1982/83 was investigated by electron microscopy, ELISA testing and RNA migration pattern analysis. In 1981/82, rotaviruses of both the 'long' and the 'short' electropherotype (in different variants) co-circulated from the onset throughout the winter peak of the outbreak. Approximately 80% of the children were infected during the first year of life. No differences in incidence were found between sexes. In 1982/83 the isolated rotaviruses were almost exclusively of the 'long' electropherotype (in different variants) and 36% of the children were infected beyond the first year of life. Rotaviruses of the 'long' electropherotype serologically were of subgroup II and serotype 1 and those of the 'short' electropherotype of subgroup I and serotype 2.

  2. An ethnographic study of HIV-related risk practices among Glasgow rent boys and their clients: report of a pilot study.

    PubMed

    Bloor, M; McKeganey, N; Barnard, M

    1990-01-01

    This paper provides an early report of a continuing ethnographic study of male prostitution in Glasgow. Pilot work indicates that rent boy activity may be of considerable importance for the spread of HIV infection. Although there is little evidence of an association between rent boy activity and injecting drug use, rent boys may well be implicated in epidemic spread because many (but not all) of them report unsafe sexual practices. Some boys reported that they engaged in unprotected anal sex both actively (insertor) and passively (insertee). Although the majority of the boys' clients were covert bisexuals--married men seeking occasional, anonymous, male sexual contact--a substantial minority of clients were gay-identified. PMID:2083256

  3. Does the Surgical Apgar Score Measure Intraoperative Performance?

    PubMed Central

    Regenbogen, Scott E.; Lancaster, R. Todd; Lipsitz, Stuart R.; Greenberg, Caprice C.; Hutter, Matthew M.; Gawande, Atul A.

    2008-01-01

    Objective To evaluate whether Surgical Apgar Scores measure the relationship between intraoperative care and surgical outcomes. Summary Background Data With preoperative risk-adjustment now well-developed, the role of intraoperative performance in surgical outcomes may be considered. We previously derived and validated a ten-point Surgical Apgar Score—based on intraoperative blood loss, heart rate, and blood pressure—that effectively predicts major postoperative complications within 30 days of general and vascular surgery. This study evaluates whether the predictive value of this score comes solely from patients’ preoperative risk, or also measures care in the operating room. Methods Among a systematic sample of 4,119 general and vascular surgery patients at a major academic hospital, we constructed a detailed risk-prediction model including 27 patient-comorbidity and procedure-complexity variables, and computed patients’ propensity to suffer a major postoperative complication. We evaluated the prognostic value of patients’ Surgical Apgar Scores before and after adjustment for this preoperative risk. Results After risk-adjustment, the Surgical Apgar Score remained strongly correlated with postoperative outcomes (p<0.0001). Odds of major complications among average-scoring patients (scores 7–8) were equivalent to preoperative predictions (likelihood ratio (LR) 1.05, 95%CI 0.78–1.41), significantly decreased for those who achieved the best scores of 9–10 (LR 0.52, 95%CI 0.35–0.78), and were significantly poorer for those with low scores—LRs 1.60 (1.12–2.28) for scores 5–6, and 2.80 (1.50–5.21) for scores 0–4. Conclusions Even after accounting for fixed preoperative risk—due to patients’ acute condition, comorbidities and/or operative complexity—the Surgical Apgar Score appears to detect differences in intraoperative management that reduce odds of major complications by half, or increase them by nearly three-fold. PMID:18650644

  4. Prognostic Predictors for Ambulation in Thai Children With Cerebral Palsy Aged 2 to 18 Years.

    PubMed

    Keeratisiroj, Orawan; Thawinchai, Nuanlaor; Siritaratiwat, Wantana; Buntragulpoontawee, Montana

    2015-11-01

    The objectives of this study were to determine prognostic predictors for ambulation among Thai children with cerebral palsy and identify their ambulatory status. A retrospective cohort study was performed at 6 special schools or hospitals for children with physical disabilities. The prognostic predictors for ambulation were analyzed by multivariable ordinal continuation ratio logistic regression. The 533 participants aged 2 to 18 years were divided into 3 groups: 186 with independent ambulation (Gross Motor Function Classification System [GMFCS I-II]), 71 with assisted ambulation (Gross Motor Function Classification System III), and 276 with nonambulation (Gross Motor Function Classification System IV-V). The significant positive predictors for ambulation were type of cerebral palsy (spastic diplegia, spastic hemiplegia, dyskinesia, ataxia, hypotonia, and mixed type), sitting independently at age 2 years, and eating independently. These predictors were used to develop clinical scoring for predicting the future ability to walk among Thai children with cerebral palsy.

  5. Nottingham prognostic index plus (NPI+) predicts risk of distant metastases in primary breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Green, Andrew R; Soria, D; Powe, D G; Nolan, C C; Aleskandarany, M; Szász, M A; Tőkés, A M; Ball, G R; Garibaldi, J M; Rakha, E A; Kulka, J; Ellis, I O

    2016-05-01

    The Nottingham prognostic index plus (NPI+) is based on the assessment of biological class combined with established clinicopathologic prognostic variables providing improved patient outcome stratification for breast cancer superior to the traditional NPI. This study aimed to determine prognostic capability of the NPI+ in predicting risk of development of distant disease. A well-characterised series of 1073 primary early-stage BC cases treated in Nottingham and 251 cases from Budapest were immunohistochemically assessed for cytokeratin (Ck)5/6, Ck18, EGFR, oestrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor, HER2, HER3, HER4, Mucin 1 and p53 expression. NPI+ biological class and prognostic scores were assigned using individual algorithms for each biological class incorporating clinicopathologic parameters and investigated in terms of prediction of distant metastases-free survival (MFS). The NPI+ identified distinct prognostic groups (PG) within each molecular class which were predictive of MFS providing improved patient outcome stratification superior to the traditional NPI. NPI+ PGs, between series, were comparable in predicting patient outcome between series in luminal A, basal p53 altered and HER2+/ER+ (p > 0.01) tumours. The low-risk groups were similarly validated in luminal B, luminal N, basal p53 normal tumours (p > 0.01). Due to small patient numbers the remaining PGs could not be validated. NPI+ was additionally able to predict a higher risk of metastases at certain distant sites. This study may indicate the NPI+ as a useful tool in predicting the risk of metastases. The NPI+ provides accurate risk stratification allowing improved individualised clinical decision making for breast cancer. PMID:27116185

  6. An individualized prognostic signature and multi-omics distinction for early stage hepatocellular carcinoma patients with surgical resection

    PubMed Central

    Ao, Lu; Song, Xuekun; Li, Xiangyu; Tong, Mengsha; Guo, You; Li, Jing; Li, Hongdong; Cai, Hao; Li, Mengyao; Guan, Qingzhou; Yan, Haidan; Guo, Zheng

    2016-01-01

    Previously reported prognostic signatures for predicting the prognoses of postsurgical hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients are commonly based on predefined risk scores, which are hardly applicable to samples measured by different laboratories. To solve this problem, using gene expression profiles of 170 stage I/II HCC samples, we identified a prognostic signature consisting of 20 gene pairs whose within-sample relative expression orderings (REOs) could robustly predict the disease-free survival and overall survival of HCC patients. This REOs-based prognostic signature was validated in two independent datasets. Functional enrichment analysis showed that the patients with high-risk of recurrence were characterized by the activations of pathways related to cell proliferation and tumor microenvironment, whereas the low-risk patients were characterized by the activations of various metabolism pathways. We further investigated the distinct epigenomic and genomic characteristics of the two prognostic groups using The Cancer Genome Atlas samples with multi-omics data. Epigenetic analysis showed that the transcriptional differences between the two prognostic groups were significantly concordant with DNA methylation alternations. The signaling network analysis identified several key genes (e.g. TP53, MYC) with epigenomic or genomic alternations driving poor prognoses of HCC patients. These results help us understand the multi-omics mechanisms determining the outcomes of HCC patients. PMID:27006471

  7. TP53 Mutational Analysis Enhances the Prognostic Accuracy of IHC4 and PAM50 Assays

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Ching-Hung; Chen, I-Chiun; Huang, Chiun-Sheng; Hu, Fu-Chang; Kuo, Wen-Hung; Kuo, Kuan-Ting; Wang, Chung-Chieh; Wu, Pei-Fang; Chang, Dwan-Ying; Wang, Ming-Yang; Chang, Chin-Hao; Chen, Wei-Wu; Lu, Yen-Shen; Cheng, Ann-Lii

    2015-01-01

    IHC4 and PAM50 assays have been shown to provide additional prognostic information for patients with early breast cancer. We evaluated whether incorporating TP53 mutation analysis can further enhance their prognostic accuracy. We examined TP53 mutation and the IHC4 score in tumors of 605 patients diagnosed with stage I–III breast cancer at National Taiwan University Hospital (the NTUH cohort). We obtained information regarding TP53 mutation and PAM50 subtypes in 699 tumors from the Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) cohort. We found that TP53 mutation was significantly associated with high-risk IHC4 group and with luminal B, HER2-enriched, and basal-like subtypes. Despite the strong associations, TP53 mutation independently predicted shorter relapse-free survival (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.63, P = 0.007) in the NTUH cohort and shorter breast cancer-specific survival (HR = 2.35, P = <0.001) in the METABRIC cohort. TP53 mutational analysis added significant prognostic information in addition to the IHC4 score (∆ LR-χ2 = 8.61, P = 0.002) in the NTUH cohort and the PAM50 subtypes (∆ LR-χ2 = 18.9, P = <0.001) in the METABRIC cohort. We conclude that incorporating TP53 mutation analysis can enhance the prognostic accuracy of the IHC4 and PAM50 assays. PMID:26671300

  8. Prognostic Analysis of the Tactical Quiet Generator

    SciTech Connect

    Hively, Lee M

    2008-09-01

    The U.S. Army needs prognostic analysis of mission-critical equipment to enable condition-based maintenance before failure. ORNL has developed and patented prognostic technology that quantifies condition change from noisy, multi-channel, time-serial data. This report describes an initial application of ORNL's prognostic technology to the Army's Tactical Quiet Generator (TQG), which is designed to operate continuously at 10 kW. Less-than-full power operation causes unburned fuel to accumulate on internal components, thereby degrading operation and eventually leading to failure. The first objective of this work was identification of easily-acquired, process-indicative data. Two types of appropriate data were identified, namely output-electrical current and voltage, plus tri-axial acceleration (vibration). The second objective of this work was data quality analysis to avoid the garbage-in-garbage-out syndrome. Quality analysis identified more than 10% of the current data as having consecutive values that are constant, or that saturate at an extreme value. Consequently, the electrical data were not analyzed further. The third objective was condition-change analysis to indicate operational stress under non-ideal operation and machine degradation in proportion to the operational stress. Application of ORNL's novel phase-space dissimilarity measures to the vibration power quantified the rising operational stress in direct proportion to the less-than-full-load power. We conclude that ORNL's technology is an excellent candidate to meet the U.S. Army's need for equipment prognostication.

  9. Requirements Flowdown for Prognostics and Health Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goebel, Kai; Saxena, Abhinav; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Celaya, Jose R.; Saha, Bhaskar; Saha, Sankalita

    2012-01-01

    Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) principles have considerable promise to change the game of lifecycle cost of engineering systems at high safety levels by providing a reliable estimate of future system states. This estimate is a key for planning and decision making in an operational setting. While technology solutions have made considerable advances, the tie-in into the systems engineering process is lagging behind, which delays fielding of PHM-enabled systems. The derivation of specifications from high level requirements for algorithm performance to ensure quality predictions is not well developed. From an engineering perspective some key parameters driving the requirements for prognostics performance include: (1) maximum allowable Probability of Failure (PoF) of the prognostic system to bound the risk of losing an asset, (2) tolerable limits on proactive maintenance to minimize missed opportunity of asset usage, (3) lead time to specify the amount of advanced warning needed for actionable decisions, and (4) required confidence to specify when prognosis is sufficiently good to be used. This paper takes a systems engineering view towards the requirements specification process and presents a method for the flowdown process. A case study based on an electric Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (e-UAV) scenario demonstrates how top level requirements for performance, cost, and safety flow down to the health management level and specify quantitative requirements for prognostic algorithm performance.

  10. Advanced Ground Systems Maintenance Prognostics Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harp, Janicce Leshay

    2014-01-01

    The project implements prognostics capabilities to predict when a component, system or subsystem will no longer meet desired functional or performance criteria, called the "end of life." The capability also provides an assessment of the "remaining useful life" of a hardware component.

  11. Prognostic value of health-related quality of life for death risk stratification in patients with unresectable glioblastoma.

    PubMed

    Paquette, Brice; Vernerey, Dewi; Chauffert, Bruno; Dabakuyo, Sandrine; Feuvret, Loic; Taillandier, Luc; Frappaz, Didier; Taillia, Hervé; Schott, Roland; Ducray, François; Fabbro, Michel; Tennevet, Isabelle; Ghiringhelli, François; Guillamo, Jean-Sébastien; Durando, Xavier; Castera, Daniel; Frenay, Marc; Campello, Chantal; Dalban, Cécile; Skrzypski, Jérome; Chinot, Olivier; Anota, Amélie; Bonnetain, Franck

    2016-08-01

    Glioblastoma is the most common malignant brain tumor in adults. Baseline health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is a major subject of concern for these patients. We aimed to assess the independent prognostic value of HRQoL in unresectable glioblastoma (UGB) patients for death risk stratification. One hundred and thirty-four patients with UGB were enrolled from the TEMAVIR trial. HRQoL was evaluated at baseline using the EORTC QLQ-C30 and BN20 brain cancer module. Clinical and HRQoL parameters were evaluated in univariable and multivariable Cox analysis as prognostic factors for overall survival (OS). Performance assessment and internal validation of the final model were evaluated with Harrel's C-index, calibration plot, and bootstrap sample procedure. Two OS independent predictors were identified: future uncertainty and sensitivity deficit. The final model exhibited good calibration and acceptable discrimination (C statistic = 0.63). The internal validity of the model was verified with robust uncertainties around the hazard ratio. The prognostic score identified three groups of patients with distinctly different risk profiles with median OS estimated at 16.2, 9.2, and 4.5 months. We demonstrated the additional prognostic value of HRQoL in UGB for death risk stratification and provided a score that may help to guide clinical management and stratification in future clinical trials.

  12. A Derivation and Validation Study of an Early Blood Transfusion Needs Score for Severe Trauma Patients

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Hao; Umejiego, Johnbosco; Robinson, Richard D.; Schrader, Chet D.; Leuck, JoAnna; Barra, Michael; Buca, Stefan; Shedd, Andrew; Bui, Andrew; Zenarosa, Nestor R.

    2016-01-01

    Background There is no existing adequate blood transfusion needs determination tool that Emergency Medical Services (EMS) personnel can use for prehospital blood transfusion initiation. In this study, a simple and pragmatic prehospital blood transfusion needs scoring system was derived and validated. Methods Local trauma registry data were reviewed retrospectively from 2004 through 2013. Patients were randomly assigned to derivation and validation cohorts. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify the independent approachable risks associated with early blood transfusion needs in the derivation cohort in which a scoring system was derived. Sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operational characteristic (AUC) were calculated and compared using both the derivation and validation data. Results A total of 24,303 patients were included with 12,151 patients in the derivation and 12,152 patients in the validation cohorts. Age, penetrating injury, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, and Glasgow coma scale (GCS) were risks predictive of early blood transfusion needs. An early blood transfusion needs score was derived. A score > 5 indicated risk of early blood transfusion need with a sensitivity of 83% and a specificity of 80%. A sensitivity of 82% and a specificity of 80% were also found in the validation study and their AUC showed no statistically significant difference (AUC of the derivation = 0.87 versus AUC of the validation = 0.86, P > 0.05). Conclusions An early blood transfusion scoring system was derived and internally validated to predict severe trauma patients requiring blood transfusion during prehospital or initial emergency department resuscitation. PMID:27429680

  13. Comparison of contemporary risk scores for predicting outcomes after surgery for active infective endocarditis.

    PubMed

    Wang, Tom Kai Ming; Oh, Timothy; Voss, Jamie; Gamble, Greg; Kang, Nicholas; Pemberton, James

    2015-03-01

    Decision making regarding surgery for acute bacterial endocarditis is complex given its heterogeneity and often fatal course. Few studies have investigated the utility of operative risk scores in this setting. Endocarditis-specific scores have recently been developed. We assessed the prognostic utility of contemporary risk scores for mortality and morbidity after endocarditis surgery. Additive and logistic EuroSCORE I, EuroSCORE II, additive Society of Thoracic Surgeon's (STS) Endocarditis Score and additive De Feo-Cotrufo Score were retrospectively calculated for patients undergoing surgery for endocarditis during 2005-2011. Pre-specified primary outcomes were operative mortality, composite morbidity and mortality during follow-up. A total of 146 patients were included with an operative mortality of 6.8 % followed for 4.1 ± 2.4 years. Mean scores were additive EuroSCORE I: 8.0 ± 2.5, logistic EuroSCORE I: 13.2 ± 10.1 %, EuroSCORE II: 9.1 % ± 9.4 %, STS Score: 32.2 ± 13.5 and De Feo-Cotrufo Score: 14.6 ± 9.2. Corresponding areas under curve (AUC) for operative mortality 0.653, 0.645, 0.656, 0.699 and 0.744; for composite morbidity were 0.623, 0.625, 0.720, 0.714 and 0.774; and long-term mortality 0.588, 0.579, 0.686, 0.735 and 0.751. The best tool for post-operative stroke was EuroSCORE II: AUC 0.837; for ventilation >24 h and return to theatre the De Feo-Cotrufo Scores were: AUC 0.821 and 0.712. Pre-operative inotrope or intra-aortic balloon pump treatment, previous coronary bypass grafting and dialysis were independent predictors of operative and long-term mortality. In conclusion, risk models developed specifically from endocarditis surgeries and incorporating endocarditis variables have improved prognostic ability of outcomes, and can play an important role in the decision making towards surgery for endocarditis.

  14. Prognostic features of renal sarcomas (Review)

    PubMed Central

    ÖZTÜRK, HAKAN

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the present review was to evaluate the prognostic features of primary sarcomas of the kidney. A literature review was conducted using a number of databases, including Medline (PubMed) and Scopus, for studies published between January 1992 and December 2013. Of the studies published in English, those describing the prognostic features of primary sarcomas of the kidney were recorded. The electronic search was limited to the following keywords: Sarcoma, renal sarcoma, prognosis, diagnosis, immunohistochemistry, genetic and survey. Subsequent to the search, no review articles and/or meta-analyses associated with the prognosis of primary sarcomas of the kidney were identified. In total, 31 studies, which consisted of case studies, case series and studies concerned with the overall prognosis of urological soft-tissue sarcomas, were reviewed. Primary sarcoma of the kidney has a poor prognosis compared with other sarcomas of the urogenital system. In addition to the surgical excision of renal sarcomas, pathological, molecular and genetic prognostic factors are also considered. Due to the small number of cases, previous studies have not randomized the prognostic features of primary sarcomas of the kidney. The elucidation of the so-called ‘chaotic’ genetic and molecular basis of renal sarcomas will help to predict patient prognoses. Surgical excision is the most significant parameter for determining the prognosis of sarcomas of the kidney. However, sarcomas also exhibit prognostic features that are based upon pathological, genetic and molecular factors. The present review suggests that additional factors may be important in predicting the prognosis of patients with renal sarcomas, and that clinicians should plan treatment and follow-up regimens according to these factors. PMID:25663853

  15. An Evidenced Based Scoring System To Determine The Periodontal Prognosis On Molars

    PubMed Central

    Miller, Preston D.; McEntire, Mark L.; Marlow, Nicole M.; Gellin, Robert G.

    2014-01-01

    Background This retrospective study evaluated and assigned scores to six prognostic factors and derived a quantitative scoring system used to determine the periodontal prognosis on molar teeth. Methods Data were gathered on 816 molars in 102 patients with moderate to severe periodontitis. The six factors evaluated, age, probing depth, mobility, furcation involvement, smoking, and molar type, were assigned a numerical score based on statistical analysis. The sum of the scores for all factors was used to determine the prognosis score for each molar. Only patients with all first and second molars at the initial examination qualified for the study. All patients were a minimum of 15 years post treatment. Results The post treatment time ranged from 15 to 40 years and averaged 24 years. When the study was completed, 639 molars survived (78%), and of those surviving molars, 566 survived in health (89%). In molars with lower scores (1,2,and 3) the 15-year survival rates ranged from 99% to 96%. For scores 4, 5, 6 the 15 year survival rates ranged was 95% to 90% and for molars with scores of 7, 8, 9, and 10 the survival rates ranged from 86% to 67%. Conclusions Our results indicate that the periodontal prognosis on molars diagnosed with moderate to severe periodontitis can be calculated using an evidence-based scoring system. PMID:23725028

  16. Novel Pretreatment Scoring Incorporating C-reactive Protein to Predict Overall Survival in Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma with Sorafenib Treatment

    PubMed Central

    Nakanishi, Hiroyuki; Kurosaki, Masayuki; Tsuchiya, Kaoru; Yasui, Yutaka; Higuchi, Mayu; Yoshida, Tsubasa; Komiyama, Yasuyuki; Takaura, Kenta; Hayashi, Tsuguru; Kuwabara, Konomi; Nakakuki, Natsuko; Takada, Hitomi; Ueda, Masako; Tamaki, Nobuharu; Suzuki, Shoko; Itakura, Jun; Takahashi, Yuka; Izumi, Namiki

    2016-01-01

    Objectives This study aimed to build a prediction score of prognosis for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after sorafenib treatment. Methods A total of 165 patients with advanced HCC who were treated with sorafenib were analyzed. Readily available baseline factors were used to establish a scoring system for the prediction of survival. Results The median survival time (MST) was 14.2 months. The independent prognostic factors were C-reactive protein (CRP) <1.0 mg/dL [hazard ratio (HR) =0.51], albumin >3.5 g/dL (HR =0.55), alpha-fetoprotein <200 ng/mL (HR =0.45), and a lack of major vascular invasion (HR =0.39). Each of these factors had a score of 1, and after classifying the patients into five groups, the total scores ranged from 0 to 4. Higher scores were linked to significantly longer survival (p<0.0001). Twenty-nine patients (17.6%) with a score of 4 had a MST as long as 36.5 months, whereas MST was as short as 2.4 and 3.7 months for seven (4.2%) and 22 (13.3%) patients with scores of 0 and 1, respectively. Conclusions A novel prognostic scoring system, which includes the CRP level, has the ability to stratify the prognosis of patients with advanced stage HCC after treatment with sorafenib. PMID:27781198

  17. Speed Reading Scores in Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Brenda Golembesky

    1975-01-01

    Cites the factors that influence reading rates and comprehension scores on timed speed reading tests, concluding that the reading speed achieved for any particular test or timed reading is the speed for that situation only. (RB)

  18. Obstetrical disseminated intravascular coagulation score.

    PubMed

    Kobayashi, Takao

    2014-06-01

    Obstetrical disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) is usually a very acute, serious complication of pregnancy. The obstetrical DIC score helps with making a prompt diagnosis and starting treatment early. This DIC score, in which higher scores are given for clinical parameters rather than for laboratory parameters, has three components: (i) the underlying diseases; (ii) the clinical symptoms; and (iii) the laboratory findings (coagulation tests). It is justifiably appropriate to initiate therapy for DIC when the obstetrical DIC score reaches 8 points or more before obtaining the results of coagulation tests. Improvement of blood coagulation tests and clinical symptoms are essential to the efficacy evaluation for treatment after a diagnosis of obstetrical DIC. Therefore, the efficacy evaluation criteria for obstetrical DIC are also defined to enable follow-up of the clinical efficacy of DIC therapy.

  19. Formulas for Image Factor Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hakstian, A. Ralph

    1973-01-01

    Formulas are presented in this paper for computing scores associated with factors of G, the image covariance matrix, under three conditions. The subject of the paper is restricted to "pure" image analysis. (Author/NE)

  20. Prognostic significance of pleural or pericardial effusion and the implication of optimal treatment in primary mediastinal large B-cell lymphoma: a multicenter retrospective study in Japan

    PubMed Central

    Aoki, Tomohiro; Izutsu, Koji; Suzuki, Ritsuro; Nakaseko, Chiaki; Arima, Hiroshi; Shimada, Kazuyuki; Tomita, Akihiro; Sasaki, Makoto; Takizawa, Jun; Mitani, Kinuko; Igarashi, Tadahiko; Maeda, Yoshinobu; Fukuhara, Noriko; Ishida, Fumihiro; Niitsu, Nozomi; Ohmachi, Ken; Takasaki, Hirotaka; Nakamura, Naoya; Kinoshita, Tomohiro; Nakamura, Shigeo; Ogura, Michinori

    2014-01-01

    The prognosis of patients with primary mediastinal large B-cell lymphoma has improved over recent years. However, the optimal treatment strategy including the role of radiotherapy remains unknown. We retrospectively analyzed the clinical outcomes of 345 patients with newly diagnosed primary mediastinal large B-cell lymphoma in Japan. With a median follow up of 48 months, the overall survival at four years for patients treated with R-CHOP (n=187), CHOP (n=44), DA-EPOCH-R (n=9), 2nd- or 3rd-generation regimens, and chemotherapy followed by autologous stem cell transplantation were 90%, 67%, 100%, 91% and 92%, respectively. Focusing on patients treated with R-CHOP, a higher International Prognostic Index score and the presence of pleural or pericardial effusion were identified as adverse prognostic factors for overall survival in patients treated with R-CHOP without consolidative radiotherapy (IPI: hazard ratio 4.23, 95% confidence interval 1.48–12.13, P=0.007; effusion: hazard ratio 4.93, 95% confidence interval 1.37–17.69, P=0.015). Combined with the International Prognostic Index score and the presence of pleural or pericardial effusion for the stratification of patients treated with R-CHOP without radiotherapy, patients with lower International Prognostic Index score and the absence of effusion comprised approximately one-half of these patients and could be identified as curable patients (95% overall survival at 4 years). The DA-EPOCH-R regimen might overcome the effect of these adverse prognostic factors. Our simple indicators of International Prognostic Index score and the presence of pleural or pericardial effusion could stratify patients with primary mediastinal large B-cell lymphoma and help guide selection of treatment. PMID:25216682

  1. Distributed Prognostic Health Management with Gaussian Process Regression

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saha, Sankalita; Saha, Bhaskar; Saxena, Abhinav; Goebel, Kai Frank

    2010-01-01

    Distributed prognostics architecture design is an enabling step for efficient implementation of health management systems. A major challenge encountered in such design is formulation of optimal distributed prognostics algorithms. In this paper. we present a distributed GPR based prognostics algorithm whose target platform is a wireless sensor network. In addition to challenges encountered in a distributed implementation, a wireless network poses constraints on communication patterns, thereby making the problem more challenging. The prognostics application that was used to demonstrate our new algorithms is battery prognostics. In order to present trade-offs within different prognostic approaches, we present comparison with the distributed implementation of a particle filter based prognostics for the same battery data.

  2. Complex karyotype in mantle cell lymphoma is a strong prognostic factor for the time to treatment and overall survival, independent of the MCL international prognostic index.

    PubMed

    Sarkozy, Clémentine; Terré, Christine; Jardin, Fabrice; Radford, Isabelle; Roche-Lestienne, Catherine; Penther, Dominique; Bastard, Christian; Rigaudeau, Sophie; Pilorge, Sylvain; Morschhauser, Franck; Bouscary, Didier; Delarue, Richard; Farhat, Hassan; Rousselot, Philippe; Hermine, Olivier; Tilly, Hervé; Chevret, Sylvie; Castaigne, Sylvie

    2014-01-01

    Mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) is usually an aggressive disease. However, a few patients do have an "indolent" evolution (iMCL) defined by a long survival time without intensive therapy. Many studies highlight the prognostic role of additional genetic abnormalities, but these abnormalities are not routinely tested for and do not yet influence the treatment decision. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic impact of these additional abnormalities detected by conventional cytogenetic testing, as well as their relationships with the clinical characteristics and their value in identifying iMCL. All consecutive MCL cases diagnosed between 1995 and 2011 at four institutions were retrospectively selected on the basis of an informative karyotype with a t(11;14) translocation at the time of diagnosis. A total of 125 patients were included and followed for an actual median time of 35 months. The median overall survival (OS) and survival without treatment (TFS) were 73.7 and 1.3 months, respectively. In multivariable Cox models, a high mantle cell lymphoma international prognostic index score, a complex karyotype, and blastoid morphology were independently associated with a shortened OS. Spleen enlargement, nodal presentation, extra-hematological involvement, and complex karyotypes were associated with shorter TFS. A score based on these factors allowed for the identification of "indolent" patients (median TFS 107 months) from other patients (median TFS: 1 month). In conclusion, in this multicentric cohort of MCL patients, a complex karyotype was associated with a shorter survival time and allowed for the identification of iMCL at the time of diagnosis. PMID:24249260

  3. Clinical scoring systems in predicting health-related quality of life of children with injuries.

    PubMed

    Mestrović, Julije; Mestrović, Marija; Polić, Branka; Markić, Josko; Kardum, Goran; Gunjaca, Grgo; Matas, Anita; Catipović, Tatjana; Radonić, Marija

    2013-06-01

    The aim of the study was to explore the association between Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), Paediatric Index of Mortality (PIM2) and Injury Severity Score (ISS), and the long-term outcome of children with injuries. The health related quality of life (HRQL) was assessed by using the Royal Alexandra Hospital for children Measure of Function (RAHC MOF), 12 months post discharge. Out of 118 children with injuries (9% of all patients), 75 had injury of the head as the leading injury. There were no significant differences at admission in the severity of clinical condition, as expressed by PIM2 and ISS, between patients with head injuries and patients with other injured leading body regions. Children with head injuries had significantly worse HRQOL than children with other leading injured body region (p < 0.045), and children from road traffic accidents had significantly worse HRQL (p = 0.004), compared to other mechanisms of injury. HRQL correlated significantly with GCS (p = 0.027), but not with ISS and PIM2. As the conclusion, among all scoring systems applied, only GCS, which demonstrates severity of head injury, showed significant impact on long-term outcome of injured children. PMID:23940977

  4. Validity of the Graded Prognostic Assessment-Derived Index to Predict Brain-Metastatic Patients' Survival After Gamma Knife Radiosurgery

    SciTech Connect

    Chiou, Shang-Ming

    2010-11-15

    Purpose: To appraise whether the graded prognostic assessment (GPA)-derived index is valid for selecting patients with brain metastases for Gamma Knife (GK) radiosurgery. Methods and Materials: A total of 56 consecutive patients in recursive partioning analysis (RPA) Class I (n = 19, 34%) and II (n = 37, 66%) formed the basis of this retrospective study. Their mean age was of 57 years with mean Karnofsky performance score of 77. Primary cancers stemmed mainly from the lungs (59%). A total of 45 patients (80%) harbored multiple tumors. The mean clinical follow-up period was 9 months. Results: Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that the overall median survival time (MST) for the whole series was 11.5 months: 16.5 vs. 6.5 months for RPA class I and II (p = 0.017). Multivariate Cox analysis revealed that female patients and a pre-GK good functional state were favorable prognostic factors. The favorable MST was in patients with a GPA score of 3 to 4 (17 months) followed by a GPA score of 2 to 2.5 (11 months) and GPA score 0 to 1.5 (6.5 months), but without statistical differences (p = 0.413) in between. A modified index (MGPA) is proposed with gender as a cofactor, then there existed a distinct survival differences (p = 0.028) between patients with an MGPA score of 3.5 to 5 (15 months) and with an MGPA score of 0 to 3 (7 months). In addition, the original GPA index failed to imply the difference of MST in patients with lung origin. Conclusions: The GPA-derived index is not applicable to our set of patients for comparing their survival after GK radiosurgery. The gender of the patients is a suggested cofactor to further refine the greater prognostic accuracy of the GPA index.

  5. Ligand Identification Scoring Algorithm (LISA)

    PubMed Central

    Zheng, Zheng; Merz, Kenneth M.

    2011-01-01

    A central problem in de novo drug design is determining the binding affinity of a ligand with a receptor. A new scoring algorithm is presented that estimates the binding affinity of a protein-ligand complex given a three-dimensional structure. The method, LISA (Ligand Identification Scoring Algorithm), uses an empirical scoring function to describe the binding free energy. Interaction terms have been designed to account for van der Waals (VDW) contacts, hydrogen bonding, desolvation effects and metal chelation to model the dissociation equilibrium constants using a linear model. Atom types have been introduced to differentiate the parameters for VDW, H-bonding interactions and metal chelation between different atom pairs. A training set of 492 protein-ligand complexes was selected for the fitting process. Different test sets have been examined to evaluate its ability to predict experimentally measured binding affinities. By comparing with other well known scoring functions, the results show that LISA has advantages over many existing scoring functions in simulating protein-ligand binding affinity, especially metalloprotein-ligand binding affinity. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was also used in order to demonstrate that the energy terms in LISA are well designed and do not require extra cross terms. PMID:21561101

  6. Gene expression-based risk score in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Bret, Caroline; Klein, Bernard; Moreaux, Jérôme

    2012-12-01

    Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is the most common type of non-Hodgkin lymphoma and displays heterogeneous clinical and molecular characteristics. In this study, high throughput gene expression profiling of DLBCL tumor samples was used to design a 12-gene expression-based risk score (GERS) predictive for patient's overall survival. GERS allowed identifying a high-risk group comprising 46,4% of the DLBCL patients in two independent cohorts (n=414 and n=69). GERS was shown to be an independent predictor of survival when compared to the previously published prognostic factors, including the International Prognostic Index (IPI). GERS displayed a prognostic value in germinal-center B-cell-like subgroup (GCB) and activated B cell-like (ABC) molecular subgroups of patients as well as in DLBCL patients treated with cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine and prednisone (CHOP) or rituximab-CHOP (R-CHOP) regimens. Combination of GERS and IPI lead to a potent prognostic classification of DLBCL patients. Finally, a genomic instability gene signature was highlighted in gene expression profiles of patients belonging to the high-risk GERS-defined group. PMID:23482333

  7. Value of the "TAVI2-SCORe" versus surgical risk scores for prediction of one year mortality in 511 patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve implantation.

    PubMed

    Debonnaire, Philippe; Fusini, Laura; Wolterbeek, Ron; Kamperidis, Vasileios; van Rosendael, Philippe; van der Kley, Frank; Katsanos, Spyridon; Joyce, Emer; Tamborini, Gloria; Muratori, Manuela; Gripari, Paola; Bax, Jeroen J; Marsan, Nina Ajmone; Pepi, Mauro; Delgado, Victoria

    2015-01-15

    A bedside-available transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI)-dedicated prognostic risk score is an unmet clinical need. We aimed to develop such a risk score predicting 1-year mortality post-TAVI and to compare it with the performance of the logistic EuroSCORE (LES) I and LES-II and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons' (STS) score. Baseline variables of 511 consecutive patients who underwent TAVI that were independently associated with 1-year mortality post-TAVI were included in the "TAVI2-SCORe." Discrimination and calibration abilities of the novel score were assessed and compared with surgical risk scores. One-year mortality was 17.0% (n = 80 of 471). Porcelain thoracic aorta (hazard ratio [HR] 2.56), anemia (HR 2.03), left ventricular dysfunction (HR 1.98), recent myocardial infarction (HR 3.78), male sex (HR 1.81), critical aortic valve stenosis (HR 2.46), old age (HR 1.68), and renal dysfunction (HR 1.76) formed the TAVI2-SCORe (all p <0.05). According to the number of points assigned (1 for each variable and 2 for infarction), patients were stratified into 5 risk categories: 0, 1 (HR 2.6), 2 (HR 3.6), 3 (HR 10.5), and ≥4 (HR 17.6). TAVI2-SCORe showed better discrimination ability (Harrells' C statistic 0.715) compared with LES-I, LES-II, and STS score (0.609, 0.633, and 0.50, respectively). Cumulative 1-year survival rate was 54% versus 88% for patients with TAVI2-SCORE ≥3 versus <3 points, respectively (p <0.001). Contrary to surgical risk scores, there was no significant difference between observed and expected 1-year mortality for all TAVI2-SCORe risk strata (all p >0.05, Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic 0.304), suggesting superior calibration performance. In conclusion, the TAVI2-SCORe is an accurate, simple, and bedside-available score predicting 1-year mortality post-TAVI, outperforming conventional surgical risk scores for this end point. PMID:25432413

  8. Diagnostic and prognostic epigenetic biomarkers in cancer.

    PubMed

    Costa-Pinheiro, Pedro; Montezuma, Diana; Henrique, Rui; Jerónimo, Carmen

    2015-01-01

    Growing cancer incidence and mortality worldwide demands development of accurate biomarkers to perfect detection, diagnosis, prognostication and monitoring. Urologic (prostate, bladder, kidney), lung, breast and colorectal cancers are the most common and despite major advances in their characterization, this has seldom translated into biomarkers amenable for clinical practice. Epigenetic alterations are innovative cancer biomarkers owing to stability, frequency, reversibility and accessibility in body fluids, entailing great potential of assay development to assist in patient management. Several studies identified putative epigenetic cancer biomarkers, some of which have been commercialized. However, large multicenter validation studies are required to foster translation to the clinics. Herein we review the most promising epigenetic detection, diagnostic, prognostic and predictive biomarkers for the most common cancers.

  9. [Prognostic factors of early breast cancer].

    PubMed

    Almagro, Elena; González, Cynthia S; Espinosa, Enrique

    2016-02-19

    Decision about the administration of adjuvant therapy for early breast cancer depends on the evaluation of prognostic factors. Lymph node status, tumor size and grade of differentiation are classical variables in this regard, and can be complemented by hormonal receptor status and HER2 expression. These factors can be combined into prognostic indexes to better estimate the risk of relapse or death. Other factors are less important. Gene profiles have emerged in recent years to identify low-risk patients who can forgo adjuvant chemotherapy. A number of profiles are available and can be used in selected cases. In the future, gene profiling will be used to select patients for treatment with new targeted therapies.

  10. [Prognostic factors of early breast cancer].

    PubMed

    Almagro, Elena; González, Cynthia S; Espinosa, Enrique

    2016-02-19

    Decision about the administration of adjuvant therapy for early breast cancer depends on the evaluation of prognostic factors. Lymph node status, tumor size and grade of differentiation are classical variables in this regard, and can be complemented by hormonal receptor status and HER2 expression. These factors can be combined into prognostic indexes to better estimate the risk of relapse or death. Other factors are less important. Gene profiles have emerged in recent years to identify low-risk patients who can forgo adjuvant chemotherapy. A number of profiles are available and can be used in selected cases. In the future, gene profiling will be used to select patients for treatment with new targeted therapies. PMID:25726309

  11. Prognostics for Electronics Components of Avionics Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Celaya, Jose R.; Saha, Bhaskar; Wysocki, Philip F.; Goebel, Kai F.

    2009-01-01

    Electronics components have and increasingly critical role in avionics systems and for the development of future aircraft systems. Prognostics of such components is becoming a very important research filed as a result of the need to provide aircraft systems with system level health management. This paper reports on a prognostics application for electronics components of avionics systems, in particular, its application to the Isolated Gate Bipolar Transistor (IGBT). The remaining useful life prediction for the IGBT is based on the particle filter framework, leveraging data from an accelerated aging tests on IGBTs. The accelerated aging test provided thermal-electrical overstress by applying thermal cycling to the device. In-situ state monitoring, including measurements of the steady-state voltages and currents, electrical transients, and thermal transients are recorded and used as potential precursors of failure.

  12. Interpreting Force Concept Inventory Scores: Normalized Gain and SAT Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coletta, Vincent P.; Phillips, Jeffrey A.; Steinert, Jeffrey J.

    2007-01-01

    Preinstruction SAT scores and normalized gains (G) on the force concept inventory (FCI) were examined for individual students in interactive engagement (IE) courses in introductory mechanics at one high school (N=335) and one university (N=292), and strong, positive correlations were found for both populations (r=0.57 and r=0.46, respectively).…

  13. SAPS 3, APACHE IV or GRACE: which score to choose for acute coronary syndrome patients in intensive care units?

    PubMed

    Nassar Junior, Antonio Paulo; Mocelin, Amilcar Oshiro; Andrade, Fabio Moreira; Brauer, Leonardo; Giannini, Fabio Poianas; Nunes, Andre Luiz Baptiston; Dias, Carlos Augusto

    2013-01-01

    CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE Acute coronary syndromes (ACS) are a common cause of intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Specific prognostic scores have been developed and validated for ACS patients and, among them, GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) has had the best performance. However, intensive care clinicians generally use prognostic scores developed from heterogeneous populations of critically ill patients, such as APACHE IV (Acute Physiologic and Chronic Health Evaluation IV) and SAPS 3 (Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3). The aim of this study was to evaluate and compare the performance of these three scores in a non-selected population of ACS cases. DESIGN AND SETTING Retrospective observational study to evaluate three prognostic scores in a population of ACS patients admitted to three general ICUs in private hospitals in São Paulo. METHODS All patients with ACS admitted from July 2008 to December 2009 were considered for inclusion in the study. Score calibration and discrimination were evaluated in relation to predicting hospital mortality. RESULTS A total of 1065 patients were included. The calibration was appropriate for APACHE IV and GRACE but not for SAPS 3. The discrimination was very good for all scores (area under curve of 0.862 for GRACE, 0.860 for APACHE IV and 0.804 for SAPS 3). CONCLUSIONS In this population of ACS patients admitted to ICUs, GRACE and APACHE IV were adequately calibrated, but SAPS 3 was not. All three scores had very good discrimination. GRACE and APACHE IV may be used for predicting mortality risk among ACS patients.

  14. Utility of the Shock Index and Other Risk-Scoring Tools in Patients with Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

    PubMed

    Ratra, Atul; Rassameehiran, Supannee; Parupudi, Sreeram; Nugent, Kenneth

    2016-03-01

    Patients with upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding frequently require hospitalization and have a mortality rate that ranges from 6% to 14%. These patients need rapid clinical assessment to determine the urgency of endoscopy and the need for endoscopic treatment. Risk-scoring tools, such as the Rockall score and the Glasgow-Blatchford score, are commonly used in this assessment. These tools clearly help identify high-risk patients but do not necessarily have good predictive value in identifying important outcomes. Their diagnostic accuracy in identifying rebleeding and mortality ranges from poor to fair. The shock index (heart rate divided by systolic blood pressure) provides an integrated assessment of the cardiovascular status. It can be easily calculated during the initial evaluation of patients and monitoring after treatment. The shock index has been used in a few studies in patients with acute GI bleeding, including studies to determine which patients need emergency endoscopy, to predict complications after corrosive ingestions, to identify delayed hemorrhage following pancreatic surgery, and to evaluate the utility of angiograms to identify sites of GI bleeding. Not all studies have found the shock index to be useful in patients with GI bleeding, however. This may reflect the unpredictable natural history of various etiologies of GI bleeding, comorbidity that may influence blood pressure and/or heart rate, and inadequate data acquisition. The shock index needs more formal study in patients with GI bleeding admitted to medical intensive care units. Important considerations include the initial response to resuscitation, persistent bleeding following initial treatment, and rebleeding following a period of stabilization. In addition, it needs correlation with other risk-scoring tools. PMID:26954657

  15. Evaluating efficacy of various operative procedures done in anterior urethral stricture using urethral stricture score

    PubMed Central

    Mathur, Rajkumar; Patil, Lukesh A.; Khan, Fareed

    2016-01-01

    Context: Scoring systems have been an important tool of clinical decision making in medicine. As scoring systems like Glasgow Coma scale have made a revolutionary change in stratifying the patient, in particular, clinical scenario. Wiegand et al. in 2012 proposed UREThRAL Score a novel method to quantify anterior urethral stricture. Aims: The aim was to validate urethral stricture score (USS) for evaluating the efficacy of operative procedures. Settings and Design: Study was done in a retrospective manner and includes patients operated for anterior urethral stricture by a single surgeon in tertiary care center over the period of 2008–2014. Subjects and Methods: A total of 57 cases were included in this study who met the inclusion criteria, of these cases 7 underwent excision and primary anastomosis (EPA), 20 underwent preputial flap urethroplasty (PFUP), 22 underwent tunica albuginea urethroplasty (TAU), and rest 8 underwent scrotal flap urethroplasty (SFUP). Procedures were assigned different complexity level, and USS was compared with the particular procedure to see the relation between both. Statistical Analysis Used: Data were analyzed using ANOVA on SPSS software. Results: Mean USS for EPA, PFUP, TAU, and SFUP in our study group was found to be 6.57, 8.95, 9.00, and 10.00, respectively, with an overall USS of 9.03, with a standard deviation of 1.56. USS was significantly associated with complexity. Conclusions: Mean USS increased with increase in surgical complexity indicating that higher USS correlates with more complex surgery. Strongest association between complexity and the individual parameter was found with location and length. PMID:26834400

  16. Vehicle Integrated Prognostic Reasoner (VIPR) Final Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bharadwaj, Raj; Mylaraswamy, Dinkar; Cornhill, Dennis; Biswas, Gautam; Koutsoukos, Xenofon; Mack, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    A systems view is necessary to detect, diagnose, predict, and mitigate adverse events during the flight of an aircraft. While most aircraft subsystems look for simple threshold exceedances and report them to a central maintenance computer, the vehicle integrated prognostic reasoner (VIPR) proactively generates evidence and takes an active role in aircraft-level health assessment. Establishing the technical feasibility and a design trade-space for this next-generation vehicle-level reasoning system (VLRS) is the focus of our work.

  17. A Distributed Approach to System-Level Prognostics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew J.; Bregon, Anibal; Roychoudhury, Indranil

    2012-01-01

    Prognostics, which deals with predicting remaining useful life of components, subsystems, and systems, is a key technology for systems health management that leads to improved safety and reliability with reduced costs. The prognostics problem is often approached from a component-centric view. However, in most cases, it is not specifically component lifetimes that are important, but, rather, the lifetimes of the systems in which these components reside. The system-level prognostics problem can be quite difficult due to the increased scale and scope of the prognostics problem and the relative Jack of scalability and efficiency of typical prognostics approaches. In order to address these is ues, we develop a distributed solution to the system-level prognostics problem, based on the concept of structural model decomposition. The system model is decomposed into independent submodels. Independent local prognostics subproblems are then formed based on these local submodels, resul ting in a scalable, efficient, and flexible distributed approach to the system-level prognostics problem. We provide a formulation of the system-level prognostics problem and demonstrate the approach on a four-wheeled rover simulation testbed. The results show that the system-level prognostics problem can be accurately and efficiently solved in a distributed fashion.

  18. EDUCATION AND PSYCHOLOGICAL TEST SCORES

    PubMed Central

    Pershad, Dwarka; Verma, S. K.

    1980-01-01

    Education, a long neglected variable affecting psychological test score, is in search of reemphasis. Some evidence for this has accumulated on the psychological tests constructed and standardized here at the department of Psychiatry, P.G.I., Chandigarh. Tentative norms prepared education wise on WAIS-Verbal section, PGI-Memory Scale, Proverb and Similarity Tests, Psychoticism Questionnaire, and PGI MQN 2, for adults, in the age range of 16-50, are reported. The results showed marked difference in the mean scores of different educational categories and thus stressed the need for reporting norms separately for different educational levels. PMID:22064617

  19. Education and psychological test scores.

    PubMed

    Pershad, D; Verma, S K

    1980-04-01

    Education, a long neglected variable affecting psychological test score, is in search of reemphasis. Some evidence for this has accumulated on the psychological tests constructed and standardized here at the department of Psychiatry, P.G.I., Chandigarh. Tentative norms prepared education wise on WAIS-Verbal section, PGI-Memory Scale, Proverb and Similarity Tests, Psychoticism Questionnaire, and PGI MQN 2, for adults, in the age range of 16-50, are reported. The results showed marked difference in the mean scores of different educational categories and thus stressed the need for reporting norms separately for different educational levels. PMID:22064617

  20. Prognostic significance of QRS duration and morphology.

    PubMed

    Brenyo, Andrew; Zaręba, Wojciech

    2011-01-01

    QRS duration and morphology, evaluated via a standard 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG), represent an opportunity to derive useful prognostic information regarding the risk of subsequent cardiac events or therapeutic outcomes. Prolonged QRS duration, and the presence of intraventricular conduction abnormalities, usually indicate the presence of changes in the myocardium due to underlying heart disease. Prolonged QRS duration is often associated with depressed ejection fraction or enlarged left ventricular volumes, but several studies have demonstrated that this simple ECG measure provides independent prognostic value, after adjusting for relevant clinical covariates. Post-infarction patients with prolonged QRS duration have a significantly increased risk of mortality, although data associating QRS prolongation specifically with sudden death is less supportive. In non-ischemic cardiomyopathy, there is no evidence that QRS duration has prognostic significance in predicting mortality or sudden death. Prolonged QRS duration, and especially presence of left bundle branch block, seems to predict a benefit from cardiac resynchronization therapy in both ischemic and non-ischemic cardiomyopathy patients. Therefore, QRS duration and morphology should not only be considered a predictor of death or sudden death in patients after myocardial infarction, and in those suspected of coronary artery disease, but also as a predictor of benefit from cardiac resynchronization therapy in patients with heart failure, whether of an ischemic or non-ischemic origin. PMID:21305480

  1. New prognostic biomarkers in multiple myeloma.

    PubMed

    Szudy-Szczyrek, Aneta; Szczyrek, Michał; Soroka-Wojtaszko, Maria; Hus, Marek

    2016-01-01

    Multiple myeloma is a malignant neoplastic disease, characterized by uncontrolled proliferation and accumulation of plasma cells in the bone marrow, which is usually connected with production of a monoclonal protein. It is the second most common hematologic malignancy. It constitutes approximately 1% of all cancers and 10% of hematological malignancies. Despite the huge progress that has been made in the treatment of multiple myeloma in the past 30 years including the introduction of new immunomodulatory drugs and proteasome inhibitors, it is still an incurable disease. According to current data, the five-year survival rate is 45%. Multiple myeloma is a very heterogeneous disease with a very diverse clinical course, which is expressed by differences in effectiveness of therapeutic strategies and ability to develop chemoresistance. This diversity implies the need to define risk stratification factors that would help to create personalized and optimized therapy and thereby improve treatment outcomes. Prognostic markers that aim to objectively evaluate the risk of a poor outcome, relapse and the patient's overall outcome are useful for this purpose. The existing, widely used prognostic classifications, such as the Salmon-Durie classification or ISS, do not allow for individualization of treatment. As a result of the development of diagnostic techniques, especially cytogenetics and molecular biology, we were able to discover a lot of new, more sensitive and specific prognostic factors. The paper presents recent reports on the role of molecular, cytogenetic and biochemical alterations in pathogenesis and prognosis of the disease. PMID:27463592

  2. Estimating Decision Indices Based on Composite Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Knupp, Tawnya Lee

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop an IRT model that would enable the estimation of decision indices based on composite scores. The composite scores, defined as a combination of unidimensional test scores, were either a total raw score or an average scale score. Additionally, estimation methods for the normal and compound multinomial models…

  3. A Bootstrap Procedure of Propensity Score Estimation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bai, Haiyan

    2013-01-01

    Propensity score estimation plays a fundamental role in propensity score matching for reducing group selection bias in observational data. To increase the accuracy of propensity score estimation, the author developed a bootstrap propensity score. The commonly used propensity score matching methods: nearest neighbor matching, caliper matching, and…

  4. The evolution and clinical relevance of prognostic classification systems in myelofibrosis.

    PubMed

    Bose, Prithviraj; Verstovsek, Srdan

    2016-03-01

    Primary myelofibrosis, the most aggressive of the classic Philadelphia chromosome-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs), is a clonal disorder characterized by often debilitating constitutional symptoms and splenomegaly, bone marrow fibrosis and resultant cytopenias, extramedullary hematopoiesis, risk of leukemic transformation, and shortened survival. Post-polycythemia vera and post-essential thrombocythemia myelofibrosis represent similar entities, although some differences are being recognized. Attempts to classify patients with myelofibrosis into prognostic categories have been made since the late 1980s, and these scoring systems continue to evolve as new information becomes available. Over the last decade, the molecular pathogenesis of MPNs has been elucidated considerably, and the Janus kinase (JAK) 1/2 inhibitor ruxolitinib is the first drug specifically approved by the US Food and Drug Administration to treat patients with intermediate-risk and high-risk myelofibrosis. This article reviews the evolution of prognostic criteria in myelofibrosis, emphasizing the major systems widely in use today, as well as recently described, novel systems that incorporate emerging data regarding somatic mutations. Risk factors for thrombosis and conversion to MPN blast phase also are discussed. Finally, the practical usefulness of the current prognostic classification systems in terms of clinical decision making is discussed, particularly within the context of some of their inherent weaknesses. Cancer 2016;122:681-692. © 2015 American Cancer Society. PMID:26717494

  5. Serum ferritin as prognostic marker in classical Hodgkin lymphoma treated with ABVD-based therapy.

    PubMed

    Fernandez-Alvarez, Ruben; Gonzalez-Rodriguez, Ana P; Gonzalez, M Esther; Rubio-Castro, Arturo; Dominguez-Iglesias, Francisco; Solano, Jackeline; Alonso-Nogues, Eva; Fernandez-Alvarez, Carmen; Zanabili, Yahya; Alonso, Jose Manuel; Payer, Angel Ramirez; Vicente, Jose Maria; Medina, Jesus; Sancho, Juan M

    2015-01-01

    Ferritin levels might correlate with disease activity in classical Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL). We analyzed the prognostic significance of the ferritin value at diagnosis in 173 cHL patients treated with ABVD between 2003 and 2013. The 5-year overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) probabilities were 80% and 64%, respectively. Patients with ferritin ≥ 350 μg/l [high ferritin group (HF), n = 62] were more likely to have advanced stage disease, B-symptoms and higher International Prognostic Score (IPS) compared with patients with ferritin < 350 μg/l [low ferritin group (LF), n = 111]. The complete remission (CR) rate and 5-year PFS and OS probabilities were lower in HF vs. LF patients (69% vs. 89%, p = 0.025; 40% vs. 78%, p < 0.001; 61% vs. 90%, p = 0.001; respectively). Multivariate analysis revealed that advanced stage (p = 0.001) and ferritin levels ≥ 350 μg/l (p = 0.002) were independent predictors for PFS. In conclusion, the ferritin level at diagnosis is a useful prognostic marker for cHL.

  6. Prognostic Impact of PHIP Copy Number in Melanoma: Linkage to Ulceration

    PubMed Central

    Nosrati, Mehdi; Tong, Schuyler; Wu, Clayton; Thummala, Suresh; Dar, Altaf A.; Leong, Stanley P.L.; Cleaver, James E.; Sagebiel, Richard W.; Miller, James R.; Kashani-Sabet, Mohammed

    2013-01-01

    Ulceration is an important prognostic factor in melanoma whose biologic basis is poorly understood. Here we assessed the prognostic impact of pleckstrin homology domain-interacting protein (PHIP) copy number and its relationship to ulceration. PHIP copy number was determined using fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) in a tissue microarray cohort of 238 melanomas. Elevated PHIP copy number was associated with significantly reduced DMFS (P = 0.01) and DSS (P = 0.009) by Kaplan-Meier analyses. PHIP FISH scores were independently predictive of DMFS (P = 0.03) and DSS (P = 0.03). Increased PHIP copy number was an independent predictor of ulceration status (P = 0.04). The combined impact of increased PHIP copy number and tumor vascularity on ulceration status was highly significant (P< 0.0001). Stable suppression of PHIP in human melanoma cells resulted in significantly reduced glycolytic activity in vitro, with lower expression of LDH5, HIF1A, and VEGF, and was accompanied by reduced microvessel density in vivo. These results provide further support for PHIP as a molecular prognostic marker of melanoma, and reveal a significant linkage between PHIP levels and ulceration. Moreover, they suggest that ulceration may be driven by increased glycolysis and angiogenesis. PMID:24005052

  7. Prognostic impact of PHIP copy number in melanoma: linkage to ulceration.

    PubMed

    Bezrookove, Vladimir; De Semir, David; Nosrati, Mehdi; Tong, Schuyler; Wu, Clayton; Thummala, Suresh; Dar, Altaf A; Leong, Stanley P L; Cleaver, James E; Sagebiel, Richard W; Miller, James R; Kashani-Sabet, Mohammed

    2014-03-01

    Ulceration is an important prognostic factor in melanoma whose biologic basis is poorly understood. Here we assessed the prognostic impact of pleckstrin homology domain-interacting protein (PHIP) copy number and its relationship to ulceration. PHIP copy number was determined using fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) in a tissue microarray cohort of 238 melanomas. Elevated PHIP copy number was associated with significantly reduced distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS; P=0.01) and disease-specific survival (DSS; P=0.009) by Kaplan-Meier analyses. PHIP FISH scores were independently predictive of DMFS (P=0.03) and DSS (P=0.03). Increased PHIP copy number was an independent predictor of ulceration status (P=0.04). The combined impact of increased PHIP copy number and tumor vascularity on ulceration status was highly significant (P<0.0001). Stable suppression of PHIP in human melanoma cells resulted in significantly reduced glycolytic activity in vitro, with lower expression of lactate dehydrogenase 5, hypoxia-inducible factor 1 alpha subunit, and vascular endothelial growth factor, and was accompanied by reduced microvessel density in vivo. These results provide further support for PHIP as a molecular prognostic marker of melanoma, and reveal a significant linkage between PHIP levels and ulceration. Moreover, they suggest that ulceration may be driven by increased glycolysis and angiogenesis. PMID:24005052

  8. The Prognostic Value of Amplitude-Integrated EEG in Full-Term Neonates with Seizures

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Lili; Hou, Xinlin; Sun, Guoyu; Li, Lei; Liu, Yunzhe; Zhou, Congle; Gu, Ruolei; Luo, Yuejia

    2013-01-01

    Neonatal seizures pose a high risk for adverse outcome in survived infants. While the prognostic value of amplitude-integrated electroencephalogram (aEEG) is well established in neonates with encephalopathy and asphyxia, neonatal seizure studies focusing on the direct correlation between early aEEG measurement and subsequent neurologic outcome are scarce. In this study, the prognostic value of aEEG features was systematically analyzed in 143 full-term neonates to identify prognostic indicators of neurodevelopmental outcome. Neonatal aEEG features of background pattern, cyclicity, and seizure activity, as well as the etiology of neonatal seizures, were significantly associated with neurodevelopmental outcome at one year of age. aEEG background pattern was highly associated with neurologic outcomes (χ2 = 116.9), followed by aEEG cyclicity (χ2 = 87.2) and seizure etiology (χ2 = 79.3). Multiple linear regression showed that the four predictors explained 71.2% of the variation in neurological outcome, with standardized β coefficients of 0.44, 0.24, 0.22, and 0.14 for the predictors of aEEG background pattern, cyclicity, etiology, and aEEG seizure activity, respectively. This clinically applicable scoring system based on etiology and three aEEG indices would allow pediatricians to assess the risk for neurodevelopmental impairment and facilitate an early intervention in newborns developing seizures. PMID:24236076

  9. Systematic review of prognostic models for recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) post-treatment of first unprovoked VTE

    PubMed Central

    Ensor, Joie; Riley, Richard D; Moore, David; Bayliss, Susan; Fitzmaurice, David

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To review studies developing or validating a prognostic model for individual venous thromboembolism (VTE) recurrence risk following cessation of therapy for a first unprovoked VTE. Prediction of recurrence risk is crucial to informing patient prognosis and treatment decisions. The review aims to determine whether reliable prognostic models exist and, if not, what further research is needed within the field. Design Bibliographic databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library) were searched using index terms relating to the clinical field and prognosis. Screening of titles, abstracts and subsequently full texts was conducted by 2 reviewers independently using predefined criteria. Quality assessment and critical appraisal of included full texts was based on an early version of the PROBAST (Prediction study Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool) for risk of bias and applicability in prognostic model studies. Setting Studies in any setting were included. Primary and secondary outcome measures The primary outcome for the review was the predictive accuracy of identified prognostic models in relation to VTE recurrence risk. Results 3 unique prognostic models were identified including the HERDOO2 score, Vienna prediction model and DASH score. Quality assessment highlighted the Vienna, and DASH models were developed with generally strong methodology, but the HERDOO2 model had many methodological concerns. Further, all models were considered at least at moderate risk of bias, primarily due to the need for further external validation before use in practice. Conclusions Although the Vienna model shows the most promise (based on strong development methodology, applicability and having some external validation), none of the models can be considered ready for use until further, external and robust validation is performed in new data. Any new models should consider the inclusion of predictors found to be consistently important in existing models (sex, site of index

  10. Prostate cancer genes associated with TMPRSS2–ERG gene fusion and prognostic of biochemical recurrence in multiple cohorts

    PubMed Central

    Barwick, B G; Abramovitz, M; Kodani, M; Moreno, C S; Nam, R; Tang, W; Bouzyk, M; Seth, A; Leyland-Jones, B

    2010-01-01

    Background: Recent studies have indicated that prostate cancer patients with the TMPRSS2–ERG gene fusion have a higher risk of recurrence. To identify markers associated with TMPRSS2–ERG fusion and prognostic of biochemical recurrence, we analysed a cohort of 139 men with prostate cancer for 502 molecular markers. Methods: RNA from radical prostatectomy tumour specimens was analysed using cDNA-mediated, annealing, selection, extension and ligation (DASL) to determine mRNAs associated with TMPRSS2–ERG T1/E4 fusion and prognostic of biochemical recurrence. Differentially expressed mRNAs in T1/E4-positive tumours were determined using significance analysis of microarrays (false discovery rate (FDR) <5%). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression determined genes, gene signatures and clinical factors prognostic of recurrence (P-value <0.05, log–rank test). Analysis of two prostate microarray studies (GSE1065 and GSE8402) validated the findings. Results: In the 139 patients from this study and from a 455-patient Swedish cohort, 15 genes in common were differentially regulated in T1/E4 fusion-positive tumours (FDR <0.05). The most significant mRNAs in both cohorts coded ERG. Nine genes were found prognostic of recurrence in this study and in a 596-patient Minnesota cohort. A molecular recurrence score was significant in prognosticating recurrence (P-value 0.000167) and remained significant in multivariate analysis of a mixed clinical model considering Gleason score and TMPRSS2–ERG fusion status. Conclusions: TMPRSS2–ERG T1/E4 fusion-positive tumours had differentially regulated mRNAs observed in multiple studies, the most significant one coded for ERG. Several mRNAs were consistently associated with biochemical recurrence and have potential clinical utility but will require further validation for successful translation. PMID:20068566

  11. Poisoning severity score, APACHE II and GCS: effective clinical indices for estimating severity and predicting outcome of acute organophosphorus and carbamate poisoning.

    PubMed

    Sam, Kishore Gnana; Kondabolu, Krishnakanth; Pati, Dipanwita; Kamath, Asha; Pradeep Kumar, G; Rao, Padma G M

    2009-07-01

    Self-poisoning with organophosphorus (OP) compounds is a major cause of morbidity and mortality across South Asian countries. To develop uniform and effective management guidelines, the severity of acute OP poisoning should be assessed through scientific methods and a clinical database should be maintained. A prospective descriptive survey was carried out to assess the utility of severity scales in predicting the outcome of 71 organophosphate (OP) and carbamate poisoning patients admitted during a one year period at the Kasturba Hospital, Manipal, India. The Glasgow coma scale (GCS) scores, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) scores, predicted mortality rate (PMR) and Poisoning severity score (PSS) were estimated within 24h of admission. Significant correlation (P<0.05) between PSS and GCS and APACHE II and PMR scores were observed with the PSS scores predicting mortality significantly (P< or =0.001). A total of 84.5% patients improved after treatment while 8.5% of the patients were discharged with severe morbidity. The mortality rate was 7.0%. Suicidal poisoning was observed to be the major cause (80.2%), while other reasons attributed were occupational (9.1%), accidental (6.6%), homicidal (1.6%) and unknown (2.5%) reasons. This study highlights the application of clinical indices like GCS, APACHE, PMR and severity scores in predicting mortality and may be considered for planning standard treatment guidelines.

  12. Sun exposure and melanoma prognostic factors

    PubMed Central

    GANDINI, SARA; MONTELLA, MAURIZIO; AYALA, FABRIZIO; BENEDETTO, LUCIA; ROSSI, CARLO RICCARDO; VECCHIATO, ANTONELLA; CORRADIN, MARIA TERESA; DE GIORGI, VINCENZO; QUEIROLO, PAOLA; ZANNETTI, GUIDO; GIUDICE, GIUSEPPE; BORRONI, GIOVANNI; FORCIGNANÒ, ROSACHIARA; PERIS, KETTY; TOSTI, GIULIO; TESTORI, ALESSANDRO; TREVISAN, GIUSTO; SPAGNOLO, FRANCESCO; ASCIERTO, PAOLO A.

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies have reported an association between sun exposure and the increased survival of patients with cutaneous melanoma (CM). The present study analyzed the association between ultraviolet (UV) light exposure and various prognostic factors in the Italian Clinical National Melanoma Registry. Clinical and sociodemographic features were collected, as well as information concerning sunbed exposure and holidays with sun exposure. Analyses were performed to investigate the association between exposure to UV and melanoma prognostic factors. Between December 2010 and December 2013, information was obtained on 2,738 melanoma patients from 38 geographically representative Italian sites. A total of 49% of the patients were >55 years old, 51% were men, 50% lived in the north of Italy and 57% possessed a high level of education (at least high school). A total of 8 patients had a family history of melanoma and 56% had a fair phenotype (Fitzpatrick skin type I or II). Of the total patients, 29% had been diagnosed with melanoma by a dermatologist; 29% of patients presented with a very thick melanoma (Breslow thickness, >2 mm) and 25% with an ulcerated melanoma. In total, 1% of patients had distant metastases and 13% exhibited lymph node involvement. Holidays with sun exposure 5 years prior to CM diagnosis were significantly associated with positive prognostic factors, including lower Breslow thickness (P<0.001) and absence of ulceration (P=0.009), following multiple adjustments for factors such as sociodemographic status, speciality of doctor performing the diagnosis and season of diagnosis. Sunbed exposure and sun exposure during peak hours of sunlight were not significantly associated with Breslow thickness and ulceration. Holidays with sun exposure were associated with favorable CM prognostic factors, whereas no association was identified between sunbed use and sun exposure during peak hours of sunlight with favorable CM prognostic factors. However, the results of the

  13. Weighting Regressions by Propensity Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Freedman, David A.; Berk, Richard A.

    2008-01-01

    Regressions can be weighted by propensity scores in order to reduce bias. However, weighting is likely to increase random error in the estimates, and to bias the estimated standard errors downward, even when selection mechanisms are well understood. Moreover, in some cases, weighting will increase the bias in estimated causal parameters. If…

  14. Seniors Increase Scores on NAEP

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gewertz, Catherine

    2010-01-01

    The latest administration of the assessment provides state-by-state results for 12th graders for the first time. Twelfth graders' reading and mathematics scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress have improved only modestly in the past four years, according to results from the latest administration, prompting renewed recognition…

  15. Validation of the new graded prognostic assessment scale for brain metastases: a multicenter prospective study

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Prognostic indexes are useful to guide tailored treatment strategies for cancer patients with brain metastasis (BM). We evaluated the new Graded Prognostic Assessment (GPA) scale in a prospective validation study to compare it with two published prognostic indexes. Methods A total of 285 newly diagnosed BM (n = 85 with synchronous BM) patients, accrued prospectively between 2000 and 2009, were included in this analysis. Mean age was 62 ± 12.0 years. The median KPS and number of BM was 70 (range, 20-100) and 3 (range, 1-50), respectively. The majority of primary tumours were lung (53%), or breast (17%) cancers. Treatment was administered to 255 (89.5%) patients. Only a minority of patients could be classified prospectively in a favourable prognostic class: GPA 3.5-4: 3.9%; recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) 1, 8.4% and Basic Score for BM (BSBM) 3, 9.1%. Mean follow-up (FU) time was 5.2 ± 4.7 months. Results During the period of FU, 225 (78.9%) patients died. The 6 months- and 1 year-OS was 36.9% and 17.6%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, performance status (P < 0.001), BSBM (P < 0.001), Center (P = 0.007), RPA (P = 0.02) and GPA (P = 0.03) were statistically significant for OS. The survival prediction performances' of all indexes were identical. Noteworthy, the significant OS difference observed within 3 months of diagnosis between the BSBM, RPA and GPA classes/groups was not observed after this cut-off time point. Harrell's concordance indexes C were 0.58, 0.61 and 0.58 for the GPA, BSBM and RPA, respectively. Conclusions Our data suggest that the new GPA index is a valid prognostic index. In this prospective study, the prediction performance was as good as the BSBM or RPA systems. These published indexes may however have limited long term prognostication capability. PMID:21366924

  16. Particle filter-based prognostics: Review, discussion and perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jouin, Marine; Gouriveau, Rafael; Hissel, Daniel; Péra, Marie-Cécile; Zerhouni, Noureddine

    2016-05-01

    Particle filters are of great concern in a large variety of engineering fields such as robotics, statistics or automatics. Recently, it has developed among Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) applications for diagnostics and prognostics. According to some authors, it has ever become a state-of-the-art technique for prognostics. Nowadays, around 50 papers dealing with prognostics based on particle filters can be found in the literature. However, no comprehensive review has been proposed on the subject until now. This paper aims at analyzing the way particle filters are used in that context. The development of the tool in the prognostics' field is discussed before entering the details of its practical use and implementation. Current issues are identified, analyzed and some solutions or work trails are proposed. All this aims at highlighting future perspectives as well as helping new users to start with particle filters in the goal of prognostics.

  17. A primary health care service for Glasgow street sex workers--6 years experience of the "drop-in centre', 1989-1994.

    PubMed

    Carr, S; Goldberg, D J; Elliott, L; Green, S; Mackie, C; Gruer, L

    1996-08-01

    In Glasgow, a health and social care centre opened in 1988 principally to facilitate HIV prevention among street prostitutes, most of whom are injecting drug users. During 1992 to 1994, 551 women made 17,554 visits to the medical room which is functional 5 nights per week. The mean age of the sex workers was 26 years (range 15 to 62) and 89% injected drugs. Fifty-five per cent of the attendances were for needle/syringe exchange only whilst the remainder involved other health care provision. Common presenting problems included abscesses, burns and venous thromboses, reflecting the high proportion of sex workers who injected drugs. Most women always used condoms for penetrative commercial sex and symptomatic sexually transmitted disease was seen infrequently. In addition to the provision of injecting equipment and condoms, other key prevention activities included Hepatitis B vaccination and cervical screening. The prevalence of HIV infection amongst the women remains under 5% and most seropositives were known to be infected before the Centre opened. This initiative shows that if multidisciplinary health and social services are provided to street sex workers at a time and place convenient to their work, the benefits are considerable.

  18. Methyl-CpG-binding domain sequencing reveals a prognostic methylation signature in neuroblastoma

    PubMed Central

    Decock, Anneleen; Ongenaert, Maté; Cannoodt, Robrecht; Verniers, Kimberly; De Wilde, Bram; Laureys, Geneviève; Van Roy, Nadine; Berbegall, Ana P.; Bienertova-Vasku, Julie; Bown, Nick; Clément, Nathalie; Combaret, Valérie; Haber, Michelle; Hoyoux, Claire; Murray, Jayne; Noguera, Rosa; Pierron, Gaelle; Schleiermacher, Gudrun; Schulte, Johannes H.; Stallings, Ray L.; Tweddle, Deborah A.; De Preter, Katleen; Speleman, Frank; Vandesompele, Jo

    2016-01-01

    Accurate assessment of neuroblastoma outcome prediction remains challenging. Therefore, this study aims at establishing novel prognostic tumor DNA methylation biomarkers. In total, 396 low- and high-risk primary tumors were analyzed, of which 87 were profiled using methyl-CpG-binding domain (MBD) sequencing for differential methylation analysis between prognostic patient groups. Subsequently, methylation-specific PCR (MSP) assays were developed for 78 top-ranking differentially methylated regions and tested on two independent cohorts of 132 and 177 samples, respectively. Further, a new statistical framework was used to identify a robust set of MSP assays of which the methylation score (i.e. the percentage of methylated assays) allows accurate outcome prediction. Survival analyses were performed on the individual target level, as well as on the combined multimarker signature. As a result of the differential DNA methylation assessment by MBD sequencing, 58 of the 78 MSP assays were designed in regions previously unexplored in neuroblastoma, and 36 are located in non-promoter or non-coding regions. In total, 5 individual MSP assays (located in CCDC177, NXPH1, lnc-MRPL3-2, lnc-TREX1-1 and one on a region from chromosome 8 with no further annotation) predict event-free survival and 4 additional assays (located in SPRED3, TNFAIP2, NPM2 and CYYR1) also predict overall survival. Furthermore, a robust 58-marker methylation signature predicting overall and event-free survival was established. In conclusion, this study encompasses the largest DNA methylation biomarker study in neuroblastoma so far. We identified and independently validated several novel prognostic biomarkers, as well as a prognostic 58-marker methylation signature. PMID:26646589

  19. Reproducibility of Residual Cancer Burden For Prognostic Assessment of Breast Cancer After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Peintinger, Florentia; Sinn, Bruno; Hatzis, Christos; Albarracin, Constance; Downs-Kelly, Erinn; Morkowski, Jerzy; Gould, Rebekah; Symmans, W. Fraser

    2016-01-01

    The residual cancer burden index was developed as a method to quantify residual disease ranging from pathological complete response to extensive residual disease. The aim of this study was to evaluate the inter-pathologist reproducibility in the residual cancer burden index score and category, and in their long-term prognostic utility. Pathology slides and pathology reports from 100 cases selected at random from patients treated in a randomized neoadjuvant trial were reviewed independently by five pathologists at M.D Anderson Cancer Center without prior coaching. Size of tumor bed, average percent overall tumor cellularity, average percent of the in situ cancer within the tumor bed, size of largest axillary metastasis and number of involved nodes were assessed separately by each pathologist and residual cancer burden categories were assigned to each case following calculation of the numerical residual cancer burden index score. Inter-pathologist agreement in the assessment of the continuous residual cancer burden score and its components and agreement in the residual cancer burden category assignments were evaluated and analyzed. The overall concordance correlation coefficient for the agreement in residual cancer burden score among all five pathologists was 0.931 (95% Confidence Interval 0.908 – 0.949). Overall accuracy of the residual cancer burden score determination was 0.989. The kappa coefficient for overall agreement in the residual cancer burden category assignments was 0.583 (95% Confidence Interval 0.539 – 0.626), indicating good overall inter-pathologist agreement. The metastatic component of the residual cancer burden index showed stronger concordance between pathologists (overall concordance correlation coefficient = 0.980; 95% Confidence Interval 0.954 – 0.992), than the primary component (overall concordance correlation coefficient = 0.795; 95% Confidence Interval 0.716 – 0.853). At a median follow-up of 12 years residual cancer burden

  20. Comparison of two simplified severity scores (SAPS and APACHE II) for patients with acute myocardial infarction.

    PubMed

    Moreau, R; Soupison, T; Vauquelin, P; Derrida, S; Beaucour, H; Sicot, C

    1989-05-01

    The Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS), the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), the Acute Physiology Score (APS), and the Coronary Prognostic Index (CPI), calculated within the first 24 h of ICU admission, were compared in 76 patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Sixteen (21%) patients subsequently died in the ICU. The nonsurvivors had significantly higher SAPS, APACHE II, and CPI scores than the survivors. ROC curves drawn for each severity index were in a discriminating position. There were no significant differences either between the areas under the ROC curves drawn for SAPS, APACHE II, and CPI, or between the overall accuracies of these indices. APS provided less homogeneous information. We conclude that SAPS and APACHE II, two severity indices which are easy to use, assess accurately the short-term prognosis, i.e., the ICU outcome, of patients with AMI. PMID:2707010

  1. Implant-Related Gingival Recession: Pilot Case Series Presents Novel Technique and Scoring Template.

    PubMed

    El Askary, Abd El Salam; Ghallab, Noha A; Tan, Shuh-Chern; Rosen, Paul S; Shawkat, Ahmad

    2016-07-01

    This article introduces a novel protocol for the predictable treatment of Class II division 2 implantrelated gingival recession and presents an innovative acrylic template for scoring the peri-implant soft-tissue gain, used before and after treatment. Ten patients with Class II division 2 single-implant-related gingival recession received combined double-papillary flap approximation and rotated subepithelial connective tissue grafting from the palate, along with any preferred optimal grafting technique that suits the type of preexisting defect. Clinical gingival recession was recorded using a scoring template at 4, 6, and 9 months postoperatively. At the end of the 9-month follow-up period, 80% of the cases showed improved soft-tissue coverage; two patients showed significant wound complications that were related to poor home-care measures. The scoring method used can be considered a diagnostic and prognostic tool for better understanding of implant-related gingival recession. PMID:27548399

  2. Intratumoral expression of cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) is a negative prognostic marker for patients with cutaneous melanoma.

    PubMed

    Kuźbicki, Łukasz; Lange, Dariusz; Stanek-Widera, Agata; Chwirot, Barbara W

    2016-10-01

    Because of the well-known heterogeneity of melanomas, prognosis of the disease is often difficult to assess even for lesions classified in similar stages. The aim of this study was to assess the usefulness of COX-2 as a melanoma prognostic marker and to establish an optimum algorithm for analysis of COX-2 expression levels in lesions of interest. Expression of COX-2 was detected immunohistochemically in standard sections of formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue samples of 85 primary melanomas, 36 lymph node metastases, and five skin metastases including 39 cases of paired primary and metastatic lesions obtained from the same patient. Enhanced expression of COX-2 in primary melanomas is an indicator of poorer prognosis. A significant correlation was found between high expression of COX-2 in primary lesions and shorter survival. The enhancement of COX-2 expression is also positively correlated with other prognostic factors such as tumor thickness and infiltration level, ulceration, high mitotic index, more invasive histologic type, vertical growth phase, and lymph node metastasis. On the whole, the results suggest that intratumoral expression of COX-2 is a strong negative prognostic marker for patients with melanoma. Moreover, our work shows that a simple and objective immunohistochemical scoring algorithm involving the determination of only a percentage fraction of positively stained cells is sufficient to obtain the prognostic information.

  3. Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) expression is a prognostic factor for radiotherapy outcome in advanced carcinoma of the cervix

    PubMed Central

    Loncaster, J A; Cooper, R A; Logue, J P; Davidson, S E; Hunter, R D; West, C M L

    2000-01-01

    The aim of the study was to evaluate VEGF expression in tumour biopsies as a prognostic factor for radiotherapy outcome in advanced carcinoma of the cervix. A retrospective study was carried out on 100 patients. Pre-treatment tumour VEGF expression was examined immunohistochemically in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded biopsies using a widely available commercial antibody. A semi-quantitative analysis was made using a scoring system of 0, 1, 2, and 3, for increasing intensity of staining. High VEGF expression was associated with a poor prognosis. A univariate log rank analysis found a significant relationship with overall survival (P = 0.0008) and metastasis-free survival (P = 0.0062), but not local control (P = 0.23). There was no correlation between VEGF expression and disease stage, tumour differentiation, patient age, or tumour radiosensitivity (SF2). In a Cox multivariate analysis of survival VEGF expression was the most significant independent prognostic factor (P = 0.001). After allowing for VEGF only SF2 was a significant prognostic factor (P = 0.003). In conclusion, immunohistochemical analysis of VEGF expression is a highly significant and independent prognostic indicator of overall and metastasis-free survival for patients treated with radiotherapy for advanced carcinoma of the cervix. It is also a rapid and easy method that could be used in the clinical setting, to identify patients at high risk of failure with conventional radiotherapy who may benefit from novel approaches or chemoradiotherapy. © 2000 Cancer Research Campaign PMID:10944602

  4. Glutamate Decarboxylase 1 Overexpression as a Poor Prognostic Factor in Patients with Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Yi-Ying; Chao, Tung-Bo; Sheu, Ming-Jen; Tian, Yu-Feng; Chen, Tzu-Ju; Lee, Sung-Wei; He, Hong-Lin; Chang, I-Wei; Hsing, Chung-Hsi; Lin, Ching-Yih; Li, Chien-Feng

    2016-01-01

    Background: Glutamate decarboxylase 1 (GAD1) which serves as a rate-limiting enzyme involving in the production of γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA), exists in the GABAergic neurons in the central nervous system (CNS). Little is known about the relevance of GAD1 to nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Through data mining on a data set derived from a published transcriptome database, this study first identified GAD1 as a differentially upregulated gene in NPC. We aimed to evaluate GAD1 expression and its prognostic effect on patients with early and locoregionally advanced NPC. Methods: We evaluated GAD1 immunohistochemistry and performed an H-score analysis on biopsy specimens from 124 patients with nonmetastasized NPC receiving treatment. GAD1 overexpression was defined as an H score higher than the median value. The findings of such an analysis are correlated with clinicopathological behaviors and survival rates, namely disease-specific survival (DSS), distant-metastasis-free survival (DMeFS), and local recurrence-free survival (LRFS) rates. Results: GAD1 overexpression was significantly associated with an increase in the primary tumor status (p < 0.001) and American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stages III-IV (p = 0.002) and was a univariate predictor of adverse outcomes of DSS (p = 0.002), DMeFS (p < 0.0001), and LRFS (p = 0.001). In the multivariate comparison, in addition to advanced AJCC stages III-IV, GAD1 overexpression remained an independent prognosticator of short DSS (p = 0.004, hazard ratio = 2.234), DMeFS (p < 0.001, hazard ratio = 4.218), and LRFS (p = 0.013, hazard ratio = 2.441) rates. Conclusions: Our data reveal that GAD1 overexpression was correlated with advanced disease status and may thus be a critical prognostic indicator of poor outcomes in NPC and a potential therapeutic target to facilitate the development of effective treatment modalities. PMID:27698909

  5. Prognostic evaluation in obese patients using a dedicated multipinhole cadmium-zinc telluride SPECT camera.

    PubMed

    De Lorenzo, Andrea; Peclat, Thais; Amaral, Ana Carolina; Lima, Ronaldo S L

    2016-02-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the prognostic value of myocardial perfusion SPECT obtained in CZT cameras (CZT-SPECT) with multipinhole collimation in obese patients. CZT-SPECT may be technically challenging in the obese, and its prognostic value remains largely unknown. Patients underwent single-day, rest/stress (supine and prone) imaging. Images were visually inspected and graded as poor, fair or good/excellent. Summed stress and difference scores (SSS and SDS, respectively) were converted into percentages of total perfusion defect and of ischemic defect by division by the maximum possible score. Obesity was defined as a body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30 kg/m(2) and classified as class I (BMI 30-34.9 kg/m(2)), II (BMI 35-39.9 kg/m(2)), or III (BMI ≥ 40 kg/m(2)). Patients were followed-up by telephone interview for the occurrence of all-cause death, myocardial infarction or revascularization. A Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to assess the independent predictors of death. Among 1396 patients, 365 (26.1 %) were obese (mean BMI 33.9 ± 3.6; 17.5 % class I, 3.4 % class II, and 3.4 % class III). Image quality was good/excellent in 94.5 % of the obese patients. The annualized mortality rates were not significantly different among obese and non-obese patients, being <1 % with normal CZT-SPECT, and increased with the degree of scan abnormality in both obese and non-obese patients. Age, the use of pharmacologic stress and an abnormal CZT-SPECT, but not obesity, were independent predictors of death. In obese patients, single-day rest/stress CZT-SPECT with a multipinhole camera provides prognostic discrimination with high image quality. PMID:26424491

  6. Glutamate Decarboxylase 1 Overexpression as a Poor Prognostic Factor in Patients with Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Yi-Ying; Chao, Tung-Bo; Sheu, Ming-Jen; Tian, Yu-Feng; Chen, Tzu-Ju; Lee, Sung-Wei; He, Hong-Lin; Chang, I-Wei; Hsing, Chung-Hsi; Lin, Ching-Yih; Li, Chien-Feng

    2016-01-01

    Background: Glutamate decarboxylase 1 (GAD1) which serves as a rate-limiting enzyme involving in the production of γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA), exists in the GABAergic neurons in the central nervous system (CNS). Little is known about the relevance of GAD1 to nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Through data mining on a data set derived from a published transcriptome database, this study first identified GAD1 as a differentially upregulated gene in NPC. We aimed to evaluate GAD1 expression and its prognostic effect on patients with early and locoregionally advanced NPC. Methods: We evaluated GAD1 immunohistochemistry and performed an H-score analysis on biopsy specimens from 124 patients with nonmetastasized NPC receiving treatment. GAD1 overexpression was defined as an H score higher than the median value. The findings of such an analysis are correlated with clinicopathological behaviors and survival rates, namely disease-specific survival (DSS), distant-metastasis-free survival (DMeFS), and local recurrence-free survival (LRFS) rates. Results: GAD1 overexpression was significantly associated with an increase in the primary tumor status (p < 0.001) and American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stages III-IV (p = 0.002) and was a univariate predictor of adverse outcomes of DSS (p = 0.002), DMeFS (p < 0.0001), and LRFS (p = 0.001). In the multivariate comparison, in addition to advanced AJCC stages III-IV, GAD1 overexpression remained an independent prognosticator of short DSS (p = 0.004, hazard ratio = 2.234), DMeFS (p < 0.001, hazard ratio = 4.218), and LRFS (p = 0.013, hazard ratio = 2.441) rates. Conclusions: Our data reveal that GAD1 overexpression was correlated with advanced disease status and may thus be a critical prognostic indicator of poor outcomes in NPC and a potential therapeutic target to facilitate the development of effective treatment modalities.

  7. Gene profiling and circulating tumor cells as biomarker to prognostic of patients with locoregional breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Kuniyoshi, Renata K; Gehrke, Flávia de Sousa; Alves, Beatriz C A; Vilas-Bôas, Viviane; Coló, Anna E; Sousa, Naiara; Nunes, João; Fonseca, Fernando L A; Del Giglio, Auro

    2015-09-01

    The gene profile of primary tumors, as well as the identification of circulating tumor cells (CTCs), can provide important prognostic and predictive information. In this study, our objective was to perform tumor gene profiling (TGP) in combination with CTC characterization in women with nonmetastatic breast cancer. Biological samples (from peripheral blood and tumors) from 167 patients diagnosed with stage I, II, and III mammary carcinoma, who were also referred for adjuvant/neoadjuvant chemotherapy, were assessed for the following parameters: (a) the presence of CTCs identified by the expression of CK-19 and c-erbB-2 in the peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) fraction by quantitative reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR) and (b) the TGP, which was determined by analyzing the expression of 21 genes in paraffin-embedded tissue samples by quantitative multiplex RT-PCR with the Plexor® system. We observed a statistically significant correlation between the progression-free interval (PFI) and the clinical stage (p = 0.000701), the TGP score (p = 0.006538), and the presence of hormone receptors in the tumor (p = 0.0432). We observed no correlation between the PFI and the presence or absence of CK-19 or HER2 expression in the PBMC fraction prior to the start of treatment or in the two following readouts. Multivariate analysis revealed that only the TGP score significantly correlated with the PFI (p = 0.029247). The TGP is an important prognostic variable for patients with locoregional breast cancer. The presence of CTCs adds no prognostic value to the information already provided by the TGP. PMID:25976504

  8. Applicability of different scoring systems in outcome prediction of patients with mixed drug poisoning-induced coma

    PubMed Central

    Eizadi Mood, Nastaran; Sabzghabaee, Ali Mohammad; Khalili-Dehkordi, Zahra

    2011-01-01

    Background: Mixed drugs poisoning (MDP) is common in the emergency departments. Because of the limited number of intensive care unit beds, recognition of risk factors to divide the patients into different survival groups is necessary. Poisoning due to ingestion of different medications may have additive or antagonistic effects on different parameters included in the scoring systems; therefore, the aim of the study was to compare applicability of the different scoring systems in outcomes prediction of patients admitted with MDP-induced coma. Methods: This prospective, observational study included 93 patients with MDP-induced coma. Clinical and laboratory data conforming to the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II), Modified APACHE II Score (MAS), Mainz Emergency Evaluation Scores (MEES) and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) were recorded for all patients on admission (time0) and 24 h later (time24). The outcome was recorded in two categories: Survived with or without complication and non-survived. Discrimination was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the ROC curve (AUC). Results: The mortality rate was 9.7%. Mean of each scoring system was statistically significant between time0 and time24 in the survivors. However, it was not significant in non-survivors. Discrimination was excellent for GCS24 (0.90±0.05), APACHE II24 (0.89±0.01), MAS24 (0.86±0.10), and APACHE II0 (0.83±0.11) AUC. Conclusion: The GCS24, APACHE II24, MAS24, and APACHE II0 scoring systems seem to predict the outcome in comatose patients due to MDP more accurately. GCS and MAS may have superiority over the others in being easy to perform and not requiring laboratory data. PMID:22223905

  9. Reduced expression and prognostic implication of inhibitor of growth 4 in human osteosarcoma

    PubMed Central

    ZHAO, DAHANG; LIU, XIANGJIE; ZHANG, YUNGE; DING, ZHAOMING; DONG, FENG; XU, HONGWEI; WANG, BAOXIN; WANG, WENBO

    2016-01-01

    Osteosarcoma is the most prevalent type of primary malignant bone tumor. Inhibitor of growth 4 (ING4) has been demonstrated to function as a tumor suppressor through multiple pathways, and is its expression is understood to be suppressed or reduced in various malignancies. The present study aimed to investigate the expression of ING4 and to determine its prognostic value in osteosarcoma tissue. Formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue microarrays were analyzed, and contained 41 osteosarcoma specimens and 11 normal bone tissue specimens with duplicate cores. ING4 expression was evaluated by immunohistochemical staining. The association between ING4 expression in the osteosarcoma and normal bone tissues was analyzed, in addition to the association between ING4 expression and Enneking classification of the osteosarcoma tissues. A significant statistical difference was observed in the ING4 immunohistochemical staining score between the osteosarcoma and normal bone tissues (P<0.001). Furthermore, a significant negative correlation was detected between the ING4 immunohistochemical staining scores and the Enneking classification results of the 41 osteosarcoma tissues (P=0.002). Low expression of ING4 was observed in the osteosarcoma specimens, and this reduced expression of ING4 was negatively correlated with Enneking classification. Thus, the results of the present study indicate that ING4 may serve as a promising prognostic marker in osteosarcoma. PMID:27073567

  10. [Serum Erythropoietin as Prognostic Marker in Myelodysplastic Syndromes].

    PubMed

    Cortesão, Emília; Tenreiro, Rita; Ramos, Sofia; Pereira, Marta; César, Paula; Carda, José P; Gomes, Marília; Rito, Luís; Magalhães, Emília; Gonçalves, Ana C; Silva, Nuno C E; Geraldes, Catarina; Pereira, Amélia; Ribeiro, Letícia; Nascimento Costa, José M; Ribeiro, Ana B Sarmento

    2015-01-01

    Introdução: A síndrome mielodisplásica é uma doença heterogénea caracterizada por displasia, medula hipercelular, citopenias e risco de evolução para leucemia aguda. Outros factores de prognóstico, nomeadamente, fibrose medular, elevação da enzima desidrogenase do lactato e 2-microglobulina têm sido descritos, contudo, a decisão terapêutica baseia-se no score do International Prognostic Scoring System. Material e Métodos: Este trabalho teve como objectivo analisar a relevãncia da eritropoietina sérica ao diagnóstico, em doentes com síndrome mielodisplásica de novo, avaliando o seu impacto na sobrevivência global e a sua implementação como factor de prognóstico. Recolhemos dados clínicos e laboratoriais de 102 doentes com síndrome mielodisplásica de novo diagnosticada entre outubro/2009 e março/2014. A análise de sobrevivência foi efectuada recorrendo à metodologia de Kaplan-Meier, de acordo com os valores de eritropoietina. Resultados: A amostra, de 102 doentes, apresenta uma mediana de idades de 74 anos e relação masculino/feminino igual a 0,8. Os doentes com o subtipo citopenia refratária com displasia unilinha apresentam, em média, valores de eritropoietina significativamente mais baixos, em oposição aos doentes com o subtipo 5q- que apresentam a média de eritropoietina sérica mais elevada (p < 0,05). Onze doentes evoluíram para leucemia aguda; estes têm, em média, eritropoietina sérica superior (p < 0,05). Adicionalmente, a eritropoietina sérica acima do limite superior da normalidade associa-se a menor sobrevivência (p = 0,0336). Após ajuste do modelo de regressão de Cox, o valor preditivo da eritropoietina para a sobrevivência global manteve-se (p < 0,001). Em análise multivariada, a eritropoietina sérica demonstrou ser um factor de prognóstico independente (p < 0,001). Discussão: A eritropoietina sérica é um factor preditivo de resposta à terapêutica com eritropoietina subcut'nea, sendo que os doentes

  11. Multiple comparisons for survival data with propensity score adjustment

    PubMed Central

    Zhu, Hong; Lu, Bo

    2015-01-01

    This article considers the practical problem in clinical and observational studies where multiple treatment or prognostic groups are compared and the observed survival data are subject to right censoring. Two possible formulations of multiple comparisons are suggested. Multiple Comparisons with a Control (MCC) compare every other group to a control group with respect to survival outcomes, for determining which groups are associated with lower risk than the control. Multiple Comparisons with the Best (MCB) compare each group to the truly minimum risk group and identify the groups that are either with the minimum risk or the practically minimum risk. To make a causal statement, potential confounding effects need to be adjusted in the comparisons. Propensity score based adjustment is popular in causal inference and can effectively reduce the confounding bias. Based on a propensity-score-stratified Cox proportional hazards model, the approaches of MCC test and MCB simultaneous confidence intervals for general linear models with normal error outcome are extended to survival outcome. This paper specifies the assumptions for causal inference on survival outcomes within a potential outcome framework, develops testing procedures for multiple comparisons and provides simultaneous confidence intervals. The proposed methods are applied to two real data sets from cancer studies for illustration, and a simulation study is also presented. PMID:25663729

  12. Clinical characteristics and prognostic factors of primary gastric lymphoma

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yi-Gao; Zhao, Lin-Yong; Liu, Chuan-Qi; Pan, Si-Cheng; Chen, Xiao-Long; Liu, Kai; Zhang, Wei-Han; Yang, Kun; Chen, Xin-Zu; Zhang, Bo; Chen, Zhi-Xin; Chen, Jia-Ping; Zhou, Zong-Guang; Hu, Jian-Kun

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Primary gastric lymphoma (PGL) is the most common extranodal non-Hodgkin lymphoma. This retrospective study aimed to analyze the clinical characteristics, prognostic factors, and roles of different treatment modalities in patients with PGL. From January 2003 to November 2014, 165 patients who were diagnosed with PGL at West China Hospital were enrolled in this study. The clinical features, treatment, and follow-up information were analyzed. In this study, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) (108, 65.5%) and mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue (MALT) lymphoma (52, 31.5%) were two predominant histological subtypes. One-year and 5-year overall survival (OS) rates of all patients were 95.2% and 79.5%, respectively; in whom 110 (66.7%) underwent surgery, 110 (66.7%) received chemotherapy, 12 (7.3%) received radiotherapy, and 10 (6.1%) received Helicobacter pylori eradication. And 75 patients (45.5%) were treated with at least 2 different types of therapies. Elevated lactic dehydrogenase (LDH) levels, poor performance status (PS), advanced stage, International Prognostic Index (IPI) score ≥3, conservative treatment, and high-grade histological subtype were associated with worse prognosis in univariate analysis. Cox regression analysis showed that LDH levels, PS, staging, and histological subtype were independent predictors of survival outcomes. In the DLBCL type, 5-year OS was significantly better in the surgically treated group (80.1%) than that of patients conservatively treated (49.8%) (P = 0.001). Surgical treatment had almost no impact on OS in the MALT type than conservative treatment (P = 0.597). The proportion of patients received conservative treatment increased from 4.5% in period 1 to 51.7% in period 4. High LDH levels, poor PS, advanced staging, and malignant pathological type at diagnosis are significantly associated with poor OS. Our data suggest that surgery is superior in prognosis over conservative treatment in the DLBCL type, but not

  13. Prognostic Factors After Extraneural Metastasis of Medulloblastoma

    SciTech Connect

    Mazloom, Ali; Zangeneh, Azy H.; Paulino, Arnold C.

    2010-09-01

    Purpose: To review the existing literature regarding the characteristics, prognostic factors, treatment, and survival of patients with medulloblastoma, who develop extraneural metastasis (ENM). Methods and Materials: A PubMed search of English language articles from 1961 to 2007 was performed, yielding 47 articles reporting on 119 patients. Factors analyzed included age, time interval to development of ENM, ENM location, central nervous system (CNS) involvement, treatment, and outcome. Results: Sites of ENM included bone in 84% of patients, bone marrow in 27% of patients, lymph nodes in 15% of patients, lung in 6% of patients, and liver in 6% of patients. Median survival was 8 months after diagnosis of ENM. The 1-, 2-, and 5-year overall survival (OS) rates after diagnosis of ENM were 41.9%, 31.0%, and 26.0%, respectively. The 1-, 2-, and 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) rates after diagnosis of ENM were 34.5%, 23.2%, and 13.4%, respectively. For patients without CNS involvement at the time of ENM diagnosis, the 1-, 2-, and 5-year OS rates for those treated with and without radiotherapy (RT) were 82.4%, 64.8%, and 64.8% vs. 51.0%, 36.6%, and 30.5%, respectively (p = 0.03, log-rank test). RT did not significantly improve OS or PFS rates for those with CNS involvement. Concurrent CNS involvement, ENM in the lung or liver, a time interval of <18 months to development of ENM, and a patient age of <16 years at ENM diagnosis were found to be negative prognostic factors for both OS and PFS. Conclusions: Several prognostic factors were identified for patients with ENM from medulloblastoma. Patients without concurrent CNS involvement, who received RT after ENM diagnosis had an OS and PFS benefit compared to those who did not receive RT.

  14. Do Examinees Understand Score Reports for Alternate Methods of Scoring Computer Based Tests?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Whittaker, Tiffany A.; Williams, Natasha J.; Dodd, Barbara G.

    2011-01-01

    This study assessed the interpretability of scaled scores based on either number correct (NC) scoring for a paper-and-pencil test or one of two methods of scoring computer-based tests: an item pattern (IP) scoring method and a method based on equated NC scoring. The equated NC scoring method for computer-based tests was proposed as an alternative…

  15. Interpreting force concept inventory scores: Normalized gain and SAT scores

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coletta, Vincent P.; Phillips, Jeffrey A.; Steinert, Jeffrey J.

    2007-06-01

    Preinstruction SAT scores and normalized gains (G) on the force concept inventory (FCI) were examined for individual students in interactive engagement (IE) courses in introductory mechanics at one high school (N=335) and one university (N=292) , and strong, positive correlations were found for both populations ( r=0.57 and r=0.46 , respectively). These correlations are likely due to the importance of cognitive skills and abstract reasoning in learning physics. The larger correlation coefficient for the high school population may be a result of the much shorter time interval between taking the SAT and studying mechanics, because the SAT may provide a more current measure of abilities when high school students begin the study of mechanics than it does for college students, who begin mechanics years after the test is taken. In prior research a strong correlation between FCI G and scores on Lawson’s Classroom Test of Scientific Reasoning for students from the same two schools was observed. Our results suggest that, when interpreting class average normalized FCI gains and comparing different classes, it is important to take into account the variation of students’ cognitive skills, as measured either by the SAT or by Lawson’s test. While Lawson’s test is not commonly given to students in most introductory mechanics courses, SAT scores provide a readily available alternative means of taking account of students’ reasoning abilities. Knowing the students’ cognitive level before instruction also allows one to alter instruction or to use an intervention designed to improve students’ cognitive level.

  16. Prognostic Factors in Sudden Sensorineural Hearing Loss

    PubMed Central

    Atay, Gamze; Kayahan, Bahar; çınar, Betül çiçek; Saraç, Sarp; Sennaroğlu, Levent

    2016-01-01

    Background: Sudden sensorineural hearing loss (SSNHL) is still a complex and challenging process which requires clinical evidence regarding its etiology, treatment and prognostic factors. Therefore, determination of prognostic factors might aid in the selection of proper treatment modality. Aims: The aim of this study is to analyze whether there is correlation between SSNHL outcomes and (1) systemic steroid therapy, (2) time gap between onset of symptoms and initiation of therapy and (3) audiological pattern of hearing loss. Study Design: Retrospective chart review. Methods: Patients diagnosed at our clinic with SSNHL between May 2005 and December 2011 were reviewed. A detailed history of demographic features, side of hearing loss, previous SSNHL and/or ear surgery, recent upper respiratory tract infection, season of admission, duration of symptoms before admission and the presence of co-morbid diseases was obtained. Radiological and audiological evaluations were recorded and treatment protocol was assessed to determine whether systemic steroids were administered or not. Treatment started ≤5 days was regarded as “early” and >5 days as “delayed”. Initial audiological configurations were grouped as “upward sloping”, “downward sloping”, “flat” and “profound” hearing loss. Significant recovery was defined as thresholds improved to the same level with the unaffected ear or improved ≥30 dB on average. Slight recovery was hearing improvement between 10–30dB on average. Hearing recovery less than 10 dB was accepted as unchanged. Results: Among the 181 patients who met the inclusion criteria, systemic steroid was administered to 122 patients (67.4%), whereas 59 (32.6%) patients did not have steroids. It was found that steroid administration did not have any statistically significant effect in either recovered or unchanged hearing groups. Early treatment was achieved in 105 patients (58%) and 76 patients (42%) had delayed treatment. Recovery

  17. Molecular predictive and prognostic factors in ependymoma.

    PubMed

    Benson, Rony; Mallick, Supriya; Julka, Pramod K; Rath, Goura K

    2016-01-01

    An ependymoma is an uncommon glial tumor, which arises from different parts of the neuroaxis. Considerable variation in presentation and survival in tumors in different locations after an optimum treatment indicates inherent molecular and genetic differences in tumorigenesis between them. A number of genetic aberrations have been identified to distinctly characterize different subgroups of ependymomas that include a posterior fossa tumor, a supratentorial tumor, and a pediatric tumor. These different groups have substantial genetic alterations, and also distinct demography, clinical characteristics, and prognosis. This article is intended to review the diverse molecular and genetic aberrations that may be helpful in prognostication and prediction of survival in patients suffering from an ependymoma. PMID:26954807

  18. Immunohistochemical diagnostic and prognostic markers for melanoma.

    PubMed

    Nosrati, Mehdi; Kashani-Sabet, Mohammed

    2014-01-01

    Recent studies in our laboratory have identified novel molecular diagnostic and prognostic markers based on analyses in large cohorts of melanoma patients. These markers were initially derived from gene expression profiling analyses of distinct stages of melanoma progression. Immunohistochemical analyses confirmed the differential expression of these markers, and immunohistochemistry-based multimarker assays were developed to assess melanoma diagnosis and prognosis at the molecular level. In this chapter we review the development of these assays and the methodologies used to assess marker expression in both nevi and primary melanomas. PMID:24258983

  19. Scoring systems predict the prognosis of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure: an evidence-based review.

    PubMed

    Wu, Fa-Ling; Shi, Ke-Qing; Chen, Yong-Ping; Braddock, Martin; Zou, Hai; Zheng, Ming-Hua

    2014-08-01

    Acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure is a devastating condition that is associated with mortality rates of over 50% and is consequent to acute exacerbation of chronic hepatitis B in patients with previously diagnosed or undiagnosed chronic liver disease. Liver transplantation is the definitive treatment to lower mortality rate, but there is a great imbalance between donation and potential recipients. An early and accurate prognostic system based on the integration of laboratory indicators, clinical events and some mathematic logistic equations is needed to optimize treatment for patients. As parts of the scoring systems, the MELD was the most common and the donor-MELD was the most innovative for patients on the waiting list for liver transplantation. This review aims to highlight the various features and prognostic capabilities of these scoring systems. PMID:24762209

  20. Sequential organ failure assessment scoring and prediction of patient's outcome in Intensive Care Unit of a tertiary care hospital

    PubMed Central

    Jain, Aditi; Palta, Sanjeev; Saroa, Richa; Palta, Anshu; Sama, Sonu; Gombar, Satinder

    2016-01-01

    Background and Aims: The objective was to determine the accuracy of sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score in predicting outcome of patients in Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Material and Methods: Forty-four consecutive patients between 15 and 80 years admitted to ICU over 8 weeks period were studied prospectively. Three patients were excluded. SOFA score was determined 24 h postadmission to ICU and subsequently every 48 h for the first 10 days. Patients were followed till discharge/death/transfer from the ICU. Initial SOFA score, highest and mean SOFA scores were calculated and correlated with mortality and duration of stay in ICU. Results: The mortality rate was 39% and the mean duration of stay in the ICU was 9 days. The maximum score in survivors (3.92 ± 2.17) was significantly lower than nonsurvivors (8.9 ± 3.45). The initial SOFA score had a strong statistical correlation with mortality. Cardiovascular score on day 1 and 3, respiratory score on day 7, and coagulation profile on day 3 correlated significantly with the outcome. Duration of the stay did not correlate with the survival (P = 0.461). Conclusion: SOFA score is a simple, but effective prognostic indicator and evaluator for patient progress in ICU. Day 1 SOFA can triage the patients into risk categories. For further management, mean and maximum score help determine the severity of illness and can act as a guide for the intensity of therapy required for each patient. PMID:27625487

  1. Scoring and Standard Setting with Standardized Patients.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Norcini, John J.; And Others

    1993-01-01

    The continuous method of scoring a performance test composed of standardized patients was compared with a derivative method that assigned each of the 131 examinees (medical residents) a dichotomous score, and use of Angoff's method with these scoring methods was studied. Both methods produce reasonable means and distributions of scores. (SLD)

  2. Item Response Modeling with Sum Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Timothy R.

    2013-01-01

    One of the distinctions between classical test theory and item response theory is that the former focuses on sum scores and their relationship to true scores, whereas the latter concerns item responses and their relationship to latent scores. Although item response theory is often viewed as the richer of the two theories, sum scores are still…

  3. An Optimizing Weight For Wrong Scores.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Donlon, Thomas F.

    This study empirically determined the optimizing weight to be applied to the Wrongs Total Score in scoring rubrics of the general form = R - kW, where S is the Score, R the Rights Total, k the weight and W the Wrongs Total, if reliability is to be maximized. As is well known, the traditional formula score rests on a theoretical framework which is…

  4. A flexible alternative to the Cox proportional hazards model for assessing the prognostic accuracy of hospice patient survival.

    PubMed

    Miladinovic, Branko; Kumar, Ambuj; Mhaskar, Rahul; Kim, Sehwan; Schonwetter, Ronald; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

    2012-01-01

    Prognostic models are often used to estimate the length of patient survival. The Cox proportional hazards model has traditionally been applied to assess the accuracy of prognostic models. However, it may be suboptimal due to the inflexibility to model the baseline survival function and when the proportional hazards assumption is violated. The aim of this study was to use internal validation to compare the predictive power of a flexible Royston-Parmar family of survival functions with the Cox proportional hazards model. We applied the Palliative Performance Scale on a dataset of 590 hospice patients at the time of hospice admission. The retrospective data were obtained from the Lifepath Hospice and Palliative Care center in Hillsborough County, Florida, USA. The criteria used to evaluate and compare the models' predictive performance were the explained variation statistic R(2), scaled Brier score, and the discrimination slope. The explained variation statistic demonstrated that overall the Royston-Parmar family of survival functions provided a better fit (R(2) =0.298; 95% CI: 0.236-0.358) than the Cox model (R(2) =0.156; 95% CI: 0.111-0.203). The scaled Brier scores and discrimination slopes were consistently higher under the Royston-Parmar model. Researchers involved in prognosticating patient survival are encouraged to consider the Royston-Parmar model as an alternative to Cox. PMID:23082220

  5. WPSS is a strong prognostic indicator for clinical outcome of allogeneic transplant for myelodysplastic syndrome in Southeast Asian patients.

    PubMed

    Ma, Liyuan; Hao, Siguo; Diong, Colin; Goh, Yeow-Tee; Gopalakrishnan, Sathish; Ho, Aloysius; Hwang, William; Koh, Liang-Piu; Koh, Mickey; Lim, Zi-Yi; Loh, Yvonne; Poon, Michelle; Tan, Lip-Kun; Tan, Patrick; Linn, Yeh-Ching

    2015-05-01

    To better understand the predictive factors and improve clinical outcome of allogeneic transplant for patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), we retrospectively analyzed the post-transplant outcome of 60 Southeast Asian patients with MDS. Multivariate analysis showed that WHO classification-based Prognostic Scoring System (WPSS) significantly affect overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), cumulative incidence of relapse (CIR), and cumulative incidence of non-relapse mortality (CINRM). Stratified by WPSS into very low/low, intermediate, high, and very high-risk categories, 3-year OS was 100, 61, 37, and 18% (p = 0.02); PFS was 100, 55, 32, and 18% (p = 0.014); CIR was 12, 24, 38, and 59% (p = 0.024); CINRM was 0, 6, 12, and 26% (p = 0.037), respectively. WHO classification, Revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R), IPSS-R-defined cytogenetic risk groups, donor gender, and acute and chronic graft vs host disease (GVHD) also influenced different aspects of transplant outcome. We found that WPSS is a powerful predictor of post-transplant outcome. WPSS provides an important model not only for prognostication but also for exploration of further post-transplant measures such as immunological maneuvers or novel therapy to improve the poor outcome of high-risk patients.

  6. A Score Predicting Posttreatment Ambulatory Status in Patients Irradiated for Metastatic Spinal Cord Compression

    SciTech Connect

    Rades, Dirk Rudat, Volker; Veninga, Theo; Stalpers, Lukas J.A.; Basic, Hiba; Karstens, Johann H.; Hoskin, Peter J.; Schild, Steven E.

    2008-11-01

    Purpose: To create a scoring system to predict ambulatory status after radiotherapy (RT) for metastatic spinal cord compression (MSCC). Methods and Materials: On the basis of a multivariate analysis of 2096 MSCC patients, a scoring system was developed. This included the five prognostic factors significantly associated with post-RT ambulatory status: primary tumor type, interval between tumor diagnosis and MSCC, visceral metastases, motor function before RT, and time developing motor deficits before RT. The score for each factor was determined by dividing the post-RT ambulatory rate (as a percentage) by 10. Total scores represented the sum of the scores for each factor and ranged between 21 and 44 points. Patients were divided into five groups according to this score. Results: The post-RT ambulatory rates were 6% (24 of 389) for patients with scores of {<=}28 points, 44% (121 of 278) for those with 29-31 points, 70% (212 of 303) for those with 32-34 points, 86% (315 of 266) for those with 35-37 points, and 99% (750 of 760) for those with {>=}38 points. The 3-month survival rates were 29%, 62%, 77%, 84%, and 98%, respectively. The 6-months survival rates were 6%, 31%, 42%, 61%, and 93%, respectively. Conclusions: Because patients with scores of {<=}28 points had poor functional outcome after RT and extraordinarily poor survival rates, short-course RT to decrease pain or best supportive care may be considered. Patients with scores of 29-37 points should be considered surgical candidates, because RT-alone results were not optimal. Patients with scores of {>=}38 points seem to have excellent results with RT alone.

  7. Prognostic value of circulating VEGFR2+ bone marrow-derived progenitor cells in patients with advanced cancer.

    PubMed

    Massard, Christophe; Borget, Isabelle; Le Deley, Marie Cécile; Taylor, Melissa; Gomez-Roca, Carlos; Soria, Jean Charles; Farace, Françoise

    2012-06-01

    We hypothesised that host-related markers, possibly reflecting tumour aggressiveness, such as circulating endothelial cells (CEC) and circulating VEGFR2(+) bone marrow-derived (BMD) progenitor cells, could have prognostic value in patients with advanced cancer enrolled in early anticancer drug development trials. Baseline CECs (CD45(-)CD31(+)CD146(+)7AAD(-) cells) and circulating VEGFR2(+)-BMD progenitor cells (defined as CD45(dim)CD34(+)VEGFR2(+)7AAD(-) cells) were measured by flow-cytometry in 71 and 58 patients included in phase 1 trials testing novel anti-vascular or anti-angiogenic agents. Correlations between levels of CECs, circulating VEGFR2(+)-BMD progenitor cells, clinical and biological prognostic factors (i.e. the Royal Marsden Hospital (RMH) score), and overall survival (OS) were studied. The median value of CECs was 12 CEC/ml (range 0-154/ml). The median level of VEGFR2(+)-BMD progenitor cells was 1.3% (range 0-32.5%) of circulating BMD-CD34(+) progenitors. While OS was not correlated with CEC levels, it was significantly worse in patients with high VEGFR2(+)-BMD progenitor levels (>1%) (median OS 9.0 versus 17.0 months), and with a RMH prognostic score >0 (median OS 9.0 versus 24.2 months). The prognostic value of VEGFR2(+)-BMD progenitor levels remained significant (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.3, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.1-4.6, p = 0.02) after multivariate analysis. A composite VEGFR2(+)-BMD progenitor level/RHM score ≥ 2 was significantly associated with an increased risk of death compared to scores of 0 or 1 (median OS 9.0 versus 18.4 months, HR = 2.6 (95%CI, 1.2-5.8, p = 0.02)). High circulating VEGFR2(+)-BMD progenitor levels are associated with poor prognostics and when combined to classical clinical and biological parameters could provide a new tool for patient selection in early anticancer drug trials. PMID:22370181

  8. Nutritional and prognostic significance of insulin-like growth factor 1 in patients with liver cirrhosis.

    PubMed

    Caregaro, L; Alberino, F; Amodio, P; Merkel, C; Angeli, P; Plebani, M; Bolognesi, M; Gatta, A

    1997-03-01

    Most of the traditional parameters for nutrition assessment have important limitations in patients with chronic liver disease. Insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) has been found to be regulated by nutrition and proposed as a nutritional marker. Its nutritional significance in patients with liver cirrhosis, however, has not been investigated. Serum IGF-1 as well as traditional anthropometric, visceral, and immunologic parameters were evaluated in 64 hospitalized cirrhotics, followed up clinically for 2 y. IGF-1Z-score averaged -2.16 +/- 1.08 and inversely correlated with Child-Pugh score (P < 0.01), the most reliable composite score reflecting the severity of liver disease. IGF-1Z-score was not different in patients with or without signs of energy malnutrition, as defined by values of midarm muscle circumference (MAMC) and/or triceps skinfold (TSF) < 5th percentile. Moreover, IGF-1Z-score did not correlate with MAMC or TSF. Despite its correlation with all visceral proteins, the reduction of IGF-1 was much greater and more frequent than that of visceral proteins. Patients with IGF-1Z-score < median values (-2.5) showed lower long-term survival rates compared with patients with IGF-1Z-score > -2.5 (P < 0.01). These data indicate that serum IGF-1 is not related to energy malnutrition in cirrhotic patients, while it appears to be a good predictor of survival and an early marker of liver dysfunction. Multiple factors, most of which are related to the severity of the liver disease, may contribute to the reduction of IGF-1. This multifactorial pathogenesis probably accounts for its prognostic significance. PMID:9131676

  9. Validation of an RNA cell cycle progression score for predicting death from prostate cancer in a conservatively managed needle biopsy cohort

    PubMed Central

    Cuzick, J; Stone, S; Fisher, G; Yang, Z H; North, B V; Berney, D M; Beltran, L; Greenberg, D; Møller, H; Reid, J E; Gutin, A; Lanchbury, J S; Brawer, M; Scardino, P

    2015-01-01

    Background: The natural history of prostate cancer is highly variable and difficult to predict accurately. Better markers are needed to guide management and avoid unnecessary treatment. In this study, we validate the prognostic value of a cell cycle progression score (CCP score) independently and in a prespecified linear combination with standard clinical variables, that is, a clinical-cell-cycle-risk (CCR) score. Methods: Paraffin sections from 761 men with clinically localized prostate cancer diagnosed by needle biopsy and managed conservatively in the United Kingdom, mostly between 2000 and 2003. The primary end point was prostate cancer death. Clinical variables consisted of centrally reviewed Gleason score, baseline PSA level, age, clinical stage, and extent of disease; these were combined into a single predefined risk assessment (CAPRA) score. Full data were available for 585 men who formed a fully independent validation cohort. Results: In univariate analysis, the CCP score hazard ratio was 2.08 (95% CI (1.76, 2.46), P<10−13) for one unit change of the score. In multivariate analysis including CAPRA, the CCP score hazard ratio was 1.76 (95% CI (1.44, 2.14), P<10−6). The predefined CCR score was highly predictive, hazard ratio 2.17 (95% CI (1.83, 2.57), χ2=89.0, P<10−20) and captured virtually all available prognostic information. Conclusions: The CCP score provides significant pretreatment prognostic information that cannot be provided by clinical variables and is useful for determining which patients can be safely managed conservatively, avoiding radical treatment. PMID:26103570

  10. Cell cycle progression score is a marker for five-year lung cancer-specific mortality risk in patients with resected stage I lung adenocarcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Eguchi, Takashi; Kadota, Kyuichi; Chaft, Jamie; Evans, Brent; Kidd, John; Tan, Kay See; Dycoco, Joe; Kolquist, Kathryn; Davis, Thaylon; Hamilton, Stephanie A.; Yager, Kraig; Jones, Joshua T.; Travis, William D.; Jones, David R.; Hartman, Anne-Renee; Adusumilli, Prasad S.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose The goals of our study were (a) to validate a molecular expression signature (cell cycle progression [CCP] score and molecular prognostic score [mPS; combination of CCP and pathological stage {IA or IB}]) that identifies stage I lung adenocarcinoma (ADC) patients with a higher risk of cancer-specific death following curative-intent surgical resection, and (b) to determine whether mPS stratifies prognosis within stage I lung ADC histological subtypes. Methods Formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded stage I lung ADC tumor samples from 1200 patients were analyzed for 31 proliferation genes by quantitative RT-PCR. Prognostic discrimination of CCP score and mPS was assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression, using 5-year lung cancer–specific mortality as the primary outcome. Results In multivariable analysis, CCP score was a prognostic marker for 5-year lung cancer–specific mortality (HR=1.6 per interquartile range; 95% CI, 1.14–2.24; P=0.006). In a multivariable model that included mPS instead of CCP, mPS was a significant prognostic marker for 5-year lung cancer–specific mortality (HR=1.77; 95% CI, 1.18–2.66; P=0.006). Five-year lung cancer–specific survival differed between low-risk and high-risk mPS groups (96% vs 81%; P<0.001). In patients with intermediate-grade lung ADC of acinar and papillary subtypes, high mPS was associated with worse 5-year lung cancer–specific survival (P<0.001 and 0.015, respectively), compared with low mPS. Conclusion This study validates CCP score and mPS as independent prognostic markers for lung cancer–specific mortality and provides quantitative risk assessment, independent of known high-risk features, for stage I lung ADC patients treated with surgery alone. PMID:27153551

  11. Damage Mechanics Approach for Bearing Lifetime Prognostics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qiu, Jing; Seth, Brij B.; Liang, Steven Y.; Zhang, Cheng

    2002-09-01

    The ability to achieve accurate bearing prognostics is critical to the optimal maintenance of rotating machinery in the interest of cost and productivity. However, techniques to real time predict the lifetime of a bearing under practical operating conditions have not been well developed. In this paper, a stiffness-based prognostic model for bearing systems based on vibration response analysis and damage mechanics is discussed. As the bearing system is considered as a single-degree-of-freedom vibratory system, its natural frequency and its acceleration amplitude at the natural frequency can be related to the system stiffness. On the other hand, the relationship between failure lifetime, running time and stiffness variation can be established from the damage mechanics. Combining the above two, the natural frequency and the acceleration amplitude of a bearing system can be related to its running time and failure lifetime. Thus, the failure lifetime of a bearing system can be predicted on-line based on vibration measurement. Experiments have been performed on a tapered roller bearing life testing stand under various operation conditions to calibrate and to validate the proposed model. The comparison between model-calculated data and experimental results indicates that this model can be used to effectively predict the failure lifetime and the remaining life of a bearing system.

  12. [Significance of prognostic parameters in acute pancreatitis].

    PubMed

    Guastella, T; Scuderi, M; Di Stefano, A; Scala, R; Rapisarda, D; Succi, L; Russello, D

    1993-07-01

    The diagnostic and therapeutic approach to Acute Pancreatitis (A.P.) is directly related to the clinical presentation. The Authors reviewed the data of 66 patients, hospitalized between October 1989 and December 1991, to verify the effectiveness of the prognostic criteria suggested by Ranson (1974), Mercadier (1977) and Imrie (1978). A.P. was of biliary origin in the majority of the patients (63.5%); five patients (7.5%) had an acute alcoholic pancreatitis, while the aetiology was traumatic or unknown in the remaining cases. A complicated clinical course was defined by the development of pseudocyst, pancreatic abscess, digestive haemorrhage, death or prolonged hospitalization (more than 20 days). The 28.8% of the patients developed complications during hospitalization. There were seven pancreatic pseudocysts, six pulmonary complications, three renal insufficiencies, two vascular complications, two sepsies and a gastrointestinal haemorrhage. The mean hospitalization period was 15.1 days (range 1-112). The Authors conclude that the three different prognostic criteria are equally useful to test the severity of A.P. attacks allowing to identify patients with the higher risk to develop complications during hospitalization.

  13. Prognostics Applied to Electric Propulsion UAV

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goebel, Kai; Saha, Bhaskar

    2013-01-01

    Health management plays an important role in operations of UAV. If there is equipment malfunction on critical components, safe operation of the UAV might possibly be compromised. A technology with particular promise in this arena is equipment prognostics. This technology provides a state assessment of the health of components of interest and, if a degraded state has been found, it estimates how long it will take before the equipment will reach a failure threshold, conditional on assumptions about future operating conditions and future environmental conditions. This chapter explores the technical underpinnings of how to perform prognostics and shows an implementation on the propulsion of an electric UAV. A particle filter is shown as the method of choice in performing state assessment and predicting future degradation. The method is then applied to the batteries that provide power to the propeller motors. An accurate run-time battery life prediction algorithm is of critical importance to ensure the safe operation of the vehicle if one wants to maximize in-air time. Current reliability based techniques turn out to be insufficient to manage the use of such batteries where loads vary frequently in uncertain environments.

  14. Prognostic molecular markers in early breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Esteva, Francisco J; Hortobagyi, Gabriel N

    2004-01-01

    A multitude of molecules involved in breast cancer biology have been studied as potential prognostic markers. In the present review we discuss the role of established molecular markers, as well as potential applications of emerging new technologies. Those molecules used routinely to make treatment decisions in patients with early-stage breast cancer include markers of proliferation (e.g. Ki-67), hormone receptors, and the human epidermal growth factor receptor 2. Tumor markers shown to have prognostic value but not used routinely include cyclin D1 and cyclin E, urokinase-like plasminogen activator/plasminogen activator inhibitor, and cathepsin D. The level of evidence for other molecular markers is lower, in part because most studies were retrospective and not adequately powered, making their findings unsuitable for choosing treatments for individual patients. Gene microarrays have been successfuly used to classify breast cancers into subtypes with specific gene expression profiles and to evaluate prognosis. RT-PCR has also been used to evaluate expression of multiple genes in archival tissue. Proteomics technologies are in development. PMID:15084231

  15. Advanced Ground Systems Maintenance Prognostics Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perotti, Jose M.

    2015-01-01

    The project implements prognostics capabilities to predict when a component system or subsystem will no longer meet desired functional or performance criteria, called the end of life. The capability also provides an assessment of the remaining useful life of a hardware component. The project enables the delivery of system health advisories to ground system operators. This project will use modeling techniques and algorithms to assess components' health andpredict remaining life for such components. The prognostics capability being developed will beused:during the design phase and during pre/post operations to conduct planning and analysis ofsystem design, maintenance & logistics plans, and system/mission operations plansduring real-time operations to monitor changes to components' health and assess their impacton operations.This capability will be interfaced to Ground Operations' command and control system as a part ofthe AGSM project to help assure system availability and mission success. The initial modelingeffort for this capability will be developed for Liquid Oxygen ground loading applications.

  16. Epidemiologic and Molecular Prognostic Review of Glioblastoma

    PubMed Central

    Thakkar, Jigisha P.; Dolecek, Therese A.; Horbinski, Craig; Ostrom, Quinn T.; Lightner, Donita D.; Barnholtz-Sloan, Jill S.; Villano, John L.

    2014-01-01

    Glioblastoma (GBM) is the most common and aggressive primary CNS malignancy with a median survival of 15 months. The average incidence rate (IR) of GBM is 3.19/100,000 population and the median age of diagnosis is 64 years. Incidence is higher in men and individuals of white race and non-Hispanic ethnicity. Many genetic and environmental factors have been studied in GBM but the majority are sporadic and no risk factor accounting for a large proportion of GBMs has been identified. However, several favorable clinical prognostic factors are identified including, younger age at diagnosis, cerebellar location, high performance status and maximal tumor resection. GBMs comprise of primary and secondary subtypes which evolve through different genetic pathways, affect patients at different ages and have differences in outcomes. We report the current epidemiology of GBM with new data from the Central Brain Tumor Registry of the United States (CBTRUS) 2006–2010 as well as demonstrate and discuss trends in incidence and survival. We also provide a concise review on molecular markers in GBM that have helped distinguish biologically similar subtypes of GBM and have prognostic and predictive value. PMID:25053711

  17. Do poorer people have poorer access to local resources and facilities? The distribution of local resources by area deprivation in Glasgow, Scotland.

    PubMed

    Macintyre, Sally; Macdonald, Laura; Ellaway, Anne

    2008-09-01

    It has commonly been suggested that in modern cities individual or household deprivation (for example, low income or education) is amplified by area level deprivation (for example, lack of jobs or good schools), in ways which damage the health of the poorest and increase health inequalities. The aim of this study was to determine the location of a range of resources and exposures by deprivation in a UK city. We examined the location of 42 resources in Glasgow City, Scotland, in 2005-2006, by quintile of small area deprivation. Measures included number per 1000 population, network distance to nearest resource, and percentage of data zones containing at least one of each type of resource. Twelve resources had higher density in, and/or were closer to or more common in, more deprived neighbourhoods: public nurseries, public primary schools, police stations, pharmacies, credit unions, post offices, bus stops, bingo halls, public swimming pools, public sports centres, outdoor play areas, and vacant and derelict land/buildings. Sixteen had higher density in, and/or were closer to, or more common in, more affluent neighbourhoods: public secondary schools, private schools, banks, building societies, museums/art galleries, railway stations, subway stations, tennis courts, bowling greens, private health clubs, private swimming pools, colleges, A & E hospitals, parks, waste disposal sites, and tourist attractions. Private nurseries, Universities, fire stations, general, dental and ophthalmic practices, pawn brokers, ATMs, supermarkets, fast food chains, cafes, public libraries, golf courses, and cinemas showed no clear pattern by deprivation. Thus it appears that in the early 21st century access to resources does not always disadvantage poorer neighbourhoods in the UK. We conclude that we need to ensure that theories and policies are based on up-to-date and context-specific empirical evidence on the distribution of neighbourhood resources, and to engage in further research on

  18. Do poorer people have poorer access to local resources and facilities? The distribution of local resources by area deprivation in Glasgow, Scotland☆

    PubMed Central

    Macintyre, Sally; Macdonald, Laura; Ellaway, Anne

    2008-01-01

    It has commonly been suggested that in modern cities individual or household deprivation (for example, low income or education) is amplified by area level deprivation (for example, lack of jobs or good schools), in ways which damage the health of the poorest and increase health inequalities. The aim of this study was to determine the location of a range of resources and exposures by deprivation in a UK city. We examined the location of 42 resources in Glasgow City, Scotland, in 2005–2006, by quintile of small area deprivation. Measures included number per 1000 population, network distance to nearest resource, and percentage of data zones containing at least one of each type of resource. Twelve resources had higher density in, and/or were closer to or more common in, more deprived neighbourhoods: public nurseries, public primary schools, police stations, pharmacies, credit unions, post offices, bus stops, bingo halls, public swimming pools, public sports centres, outdoor play areas, and vacant and derelict land/buildings. Sixteen had higher density in, and/or were closer to, or more common in, more affluent neighbourhoods: public secondary schools, private schools, banks, building societies, museums/art galleries, railway stations, subway stations, tennis courts, bowling greens, private health clubs, private swimming pools, colleges, A & E hospitals, parks, waste disposal sites, and tourist attractions. Private nurseries, Universities, fire stations, general, dental and ophthalmic practices, pawn brokers, ATMs, supermarkets, fast food chains, cafes, public libraries, golf courses, and cinemas showed no clear pattern by deprivation. Thus it appears that in the early 21st century access to resources does not always disadvantage poorer neighbourhoods in the UK. We conclude that we need to ensure that theories and policies are based on up-to-date and context-specific empirical evidence on the distribution of neighbourhood resources, and to engage in further research

  19. Do poorer people have poorer access to local resources and facilities? The distribution of local resources by area deprivation in Glasgow, Scotland.

    PubMed

    Macintyre, Sally; Macdonald, Laura; Ellaway, Anne

    2008-09-01

    It has commonly been suggested that in modern cities individual or household deprivation (for example, low income or education) is amplified by area level deprivation (for example, lack of jobs or good schools), in ways which damage the health of the poorest and increase health inequalities. The aim of this study was to determine the location of a range of resources and exposures by deprivation in a UK city. We examined the location of 42 resources in Glasgow City, Scotland, in 2005-2006, by quintile of small area deprivation. Measures included number per 1000 population, network distance to nearest resource, and percentage of data zones containing at least one of each type of resource. Twelve resources had higher density in, and/or were closer to or more common in, more deprived neighbourhoods: public nurseries, public primary schools, police stations, pharmacies, credit unions, post offices, bus stops, bingo halls, public swimming pools, public sports centres, outdoor play areas, and vacant and derelict land/buildings. Sixteen had higher density in, and/or were closer to, or more common in, more affluent neighbourhoods: public secondary schools, private schools, banks, building societies, museums/art galleries, railway stations, subway stations, tennis courts, bowling greens, private health clubs, private swimming pools, colleges, A & E hospitals, parks, waste disposal sites, and tourist attractions. Private nurseries, Universities, fire stations, general, dental and ophthalmic practices, pawn brokers, ATMs, supermarkets, fast food chains, cafes, public libraries, golf courses, and cinemas showed no clear pattern by deprivation. Thus it appears that in the early 21st century access to resources does not always disadvantage poorer neighbourhoods in the UK. We conclude that we need to ensure that theories and policies are based on up-to-date and context-specific empirical evidence on the distribution of neighbourhood resources, and to engage in further research on

  20. Survival and prognostic factors of early ovarian cancer.

    PubMed Central

    Villa, A.; Parazzini, F.; Acerboni, S.; Guarnerio, P.; Bolis, G.

    1998-01-01

    Survival and prognostic factors were analysed in 150 patients with histologically confirmed epithelial ovarian cancer stage IA-IIA. The relapse-free and overall survival rates were, respectively, 81% and 88% after 3 and 74% and 84% after 5 years. The analysis of various prognostic factors indicates as the main factor the grade differentiation of the tumour. PMID:9459156

  1. Early Prognostication Markers in Cardiac Arrest Patients Treated with Hypothermia

    PubMed Central

    Karapetkova, Maria; Koenig, Matthew A.; Jia, Xiaofeng

    2015-01-01

    Background and purpose Established prognostication markers, such as clinical findings, electroencephalography (EEG), and biochemical markers, used by clinicians to predict neurologic outcome after cardiac arrest (CA) are altered under therapeutic hypothermia (TH) conditions and their validity remains uncertain. Methods MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for evidence on the current standards for neurologic outcome prediction for out-of-hospital CA patients treated with TH and the validity of a wide range of prognostication markers. Relevant studies that suggested one or several established biomarkers, and multimodal approaches for prognostication were included and reviewed. Results While the prognostic accuracy of various tests has been questioned after TH, pupillary light reflexes and somatosensory evoked potentials (SSEP) are still strongly associated with negative outcome for early prognostication. Increasingly, EEG background activity has also been identified as a valid predictor for outcome after 72 hours after CA and a preferred prognostic method in clinical settings. Neuroimaging techniques, such as MRI and CT, can identify functional and structural brain injury, but are not readily available at the patient’s bedside because of limited availability and high costs. Conclusions A multimodal algorithm composed of neurological examination, EEG-based quantitative testing, and SSEP, in conjunction with newer MRI sequences, if available, holds promise for accurate prognostication in CA patients treated with TH. In order to avoid premature withdrawal of care, prognostication should be performed later than 72 hours after CA. PMID:26228521

  2. Prognostic factors of sciatica in the Canon of Avicenna.

    PubMed

    Minaee, Bagher; Abbassian, Alireza; Nasrabadi, Alireza Nikbakht; Rostamian, Abdorrahman

    2013-12-01

    Prognosis studies are fast developing and very practical types of medical research. Sciatica is one of the common types of low back pain and identifying prognostic factors of the illness can help physicians and patients to choose best method of practice. The prognostic factors of sciatica are presented from the Canon of Avicenna, one of the most famous physicians in the history of medicine.

  3. The Thoracolumbar AOSpine Injury Score.

    PubMed

    Kepler, Christopher K; Vaccaro, Alexander R; Schroeder, Gregory D; Koerner, John D; Vialle, Luiz R; Aarabi, Bizhan; Rajasekaran, Shanmuganathan; Bellabarba, Carlo; Chapman, Jens R; Kandziora, Frank; Schnake, Klaus J; Dvorak, Marcel F; Reinhold, Max; Oner, F Cumhur

    2016-06-01

    Study Design Survey of 100 worldwide spine surgeons. Objective To develop a spine injury score for the AOSpine Thoracolumbar Spine Injury Classification System. Methods Each respondent was asked to numerically grade the severity of each variable of the AOSpine Thoracolumbar Spine Injury Classification System. Using the results, as well as limited input from the AOSpine Trauma Knowledge Forum, the Thoracolumbar AOSpine Injury Score was developed. Results Beginning with 1 point for A1, groups A, B, and C were consecutively awarded an additional point (A1, 1 point; A2, 2 points; A3, 3 points); however, because of a significant increase in the severity between A3 and A4 and because the severity of A4 and B1 was similar, both A4 and B1 were awarded 5 points. An uneven stepwise increase in severity moving from N0 to N4, with a substantial increase in severity between N2 (nerve root injury with radicular symptoms) and N3 (incomplete spinal cord injury) injuries, was identified. Hence, each grade of neurologic injury was progressively given an additional point starting with 0 points for N0, and the substantial difference in severity between N2 and N3 injuries was recognized by elevating N3 to 4 points. Finally, 1 point was awarded to the M1 modifier (indeterminate posterolateral ligamentous complex injury). Conclusion The Thoracolumbar AOSpine Injury Score is an easy-to-use, data-driven metric that will allow for the development of a surgical algorithm to accompany the AOSpine Thoracolumbar Spine Injury Classification System. PMID:27190734

  4. The Thoracolumbar AOSpine Injury Score

    PubMed Central

    Kepler, Christopher K.; Vaccaro, Alexander R.; Schroeder, Gregory D.; Koerner, John D.; Vialle, Luiz R.; Aarabi, Bizhan; Rajasekaran, Shanmuganathan; Bellabarba, Carlo; Chapman, Jens R.; Kandziora, Frank; Schnake, Klaus J.; Dvorak, Marcel F.; Reinhold, Max; Oner, F. Cumhur

    2015-01-01

    Study Design Survey of 100 worldwide spine surgeons. Objective To develop a spine injury score for the AOSpine Thoracolumbar Spine Injury Classification System. Methods Each respondent was asked to numerically grade the severity of each variable of the AOSpine Thoracolumbar Spine Injury Classification System. Using the results, as well as limited input from the AOSpine Trauma Knowledge Forum, the Thoracolumbar AOSpine Injury Score was developed. Results Beginning with 1 point for A1, groups A, B, and C were consecutively awarded an additional point (A1, 1 point; A2, 2 points; A3, 3 points); however, because of a significant increase in the severity between A3 and A4 and because the severity of A4 and B1 was similar, both A4 and B1 were awarded 5 points. An uneven stepwise increase in severity moving from N0 to N4, with a substantial increase in severity between N2 (nerve root injury with radicular symptoms) and N3 (incomplete spinal cord injury) injuries, was identified. Hence, each grade of neurologic injury was progressively given an additional point starting with 0 points for N0, and the substantial difference in severity between N2 and N3 injuries was recognized by elevating N3 to 4 points. Finally, 1 point was awarded to the M1 modifier (indeterminate posterolateral ligamentous complex injury). Conclusion The Thoracolumbar AOSpine Injury Score is an easy-to-use, data-driven metric that will allow for the development of a surgical algorithm to accompany the AOSpine Thoracolumbar Spine Injury Classification System. PMID:27190734

  5. Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage in elderly patients: long-term outcome and prognostic factors in an interdisciplinary treatment approach.

    PubMed

    Schöller, Karsten; Massmann, Maike; Markl, Gertraud; Kunz, Mathias; Fesl, Gunther; Brückmann, Hartmut; Pfefferkorn, Thomas; Tonn, Jörg-Christian; Schichor, Christian

    2013-04-01

    The number of elderly patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is increasing with the aging of the population. However, management recommendations based on long-term outcome data and analyses of prognostic factors are scarce. Our study focused exclusively on elderly patients aged ≥ 60 years at the onset of SAH. Patients were selected from an in-house database and compared in cohorts of age 60-69, 70-79, and ≥ 80, regarding pre-existing medical conditions, treatment, clinical course including complications, and outcome. A multivariate analysis was conducted to identify prognostic factors for death and disability. A total of 256 patients (138 aged 60-69, 93 aged 70-79, 25 aged ≥ 80) with putative aneurysmal SAH who had been admitted to our hospital between January 1, 1996 and June 30, 2007 were extracted. The median follow-up of our total cohort was 35.5 months (range <1-154 months). Endovascular or conservative aneurysm treatment was applied more often with increasing age (p < 0.006). The 1-year survival rate was 78, 65, and 38 % in the three age groups, respectively (p = 0.0002); most of the patients died from the initial hemorrhage or from medical complications. Patients aged <70 with an initial World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (WFNS) score of I-III showed the best clinical recovery. WFNS score, age, and clipping/coiling were extracted as prognostic factors from the Cox model. Elderly patients who get admitted with a good WFNS score (I-III) seem to benefit from aggressive treatment whereas caution seems to be warranted particularly in patients ≥ 70 years of age who get admitted in a WFNS score of IV and V because of their limited short- and long-term prognosis.

  6. The influence of objective prognostic information on the likelihood of informed consent for decompressive craniectomy: a study of Australian anaesthetists.

    PubMed

    Honeybul, S; O'Hanlon, S; Ho, K M; Gillett, G

    2011-07-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the influence of detailed prognostic information on the likelihood of informed consent for decompressive craniectomy for severe traumatic brain injury. The study was a simulation exercise, asking anaesthetists to give opinions as if they themselves were the injured party. Anaesthetists were chosen as they represent a distinct group likely to be familiar with the procedure and the decision-making process, but not necessarily aware of the longer-term outcomes. A two-part structured interview was used. Seventy-five anaesthetists were shown three cases of differing severity of traumatic brain injury. A visual analogue scale (1 to 10) was used to assess the strengths of their opinion. Initially they were asked their opinion with no predictive outcome data. They were then shown the prediction of an unfavourable outcome (Glasgow Outcome Scale severely disabled, vegetative state or dead) and the observed outcome at 18-month follow-up from a cohort of 147 patients (who had had a decompressive craniectomy for severe traumatic brain injury in Perth, Western Australia between the years 2004 and 2008). The opinions of the participants before and after seeing the prediction outcome data were compared. The participants' preferences to consent to the procedure changed after being informed of the predicted risks of unfavourable outcomes (P values < 0.01). The changes in attitude appeared to be independent of age group, amount of experience in caring for similar patients and religious background. These findings suggest that access to objective information on risks of unfavourable outcomes may influence opinions in relation to consent for decompressive craniectomy for traumatic brain injury. PMID:21823386

  7. Scoring of precision spur gears

    SciTech Connect

    Budinski, K.G. )

    1994-09-01

    A group of manufacturing machines employed precision spur gears as the timing mechanism for machine operations. These machines had worked successfully for about ten years with little or no problems with gear wear or deterioration. When new machines were brought on line with recently made gears there were immediate problems with gear tooth scoring. A laboratory study was conducted to determine if metallurgical conditions were related to the gear scoring. Recent gears were made from a modification of the alloy used in early gears. The new alloy has been modified to make it more resistant to softening in coating operations. Reciprocating wear tests and galling tests were conducted to compare the tribological characteristics of the old and new gear steels. It was determined that the threshold galling stress of the gear steels was strongly dependent on the hardness. The reciprocating wear tests indicated that the wear resistance was affected by the volume fraction of hard phases in the steels. The recommended short-term solution was to alter the tempering procedure for the steel to keep Rockwell C hardness above 60; the long-term solution was to change the gear material and lubrication.

  8. [The prognostic value of liver function tests--clinical aspects, laboratory chemical parameters and quantitative function tests].

    PubMed

    Wahlländer, A; Beuers, U

    1990-05-01

    In view of increasing therapeutic possibilities interest focuses on prognosis of liver cirrhosis. Until nowadays studies on prognosis revealed significant importance only for some parameters: Ascites, encephalopathy and portal hypertension as signs of decompensation, bilirubin, albumin and prothrombin time as laboratory indices of decreasing liver function. The commonly used Child-Pugh-score is based on these parameters and allows a reasonable classification of diseased patients. Cholestasis and inflammation seem to be of minor prognostic importance. Assessment of liver function by quantitative tests is desirable (e.g. aminopyrine breath test, bile acids). The prognostic value, however, has not yet been proven in large studies. Use of these tests should therefore be restricted to studies (prognosis, therapy, indication to liver transplantation).

  9. MAGE-A3 expression is an adverse prognostic factor in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Olarte, Irma; Martinez, Adolfo; Ramos-Peñafiel, Christian; Castellanos-Sinco, Humberto; Zamora, Jorge; Collazo-Jaloma, Juan; Gutiérrez, Mario; Gutiérrez-Kobeh, Laila; Chavez-Olmos, Pedro; Manzanilla, Hugo; Garrido-Guerrero, Efraín; Ordoñez-Razo, Rosa M; Miranda, Enrique I

    2011-11-01

    This study evaluates the prognostic value of MAGE-A3 expression in 28 diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) patients. A significant association was observed between MAGE-A3 expressions, assessed by quantitative real-time RT-polymerase chain reaction (PCR), with advanced stages of disease (P < 0.05). Elevated serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels and International Prognostic Index (IPI) score were significantly higher in MAGE-A3-positive patients (P = 0.025 and P = 0.004, respectively). Expression of MAGE-A3 was associated with poor response to treatment and a significantly shorter overall survival (P < 0.001). Our data address new information in the association of MAGE-A3 expression and poor prognosis in DLBCL patients. PMID:22183072

  10. Prediction of stroke-related diagnostic and prognostic measures using robot-based evaluation.

    PubMed

    Mostafavi, Sayyed Mostafa; Glasgow, Janice I; Dukelow, Sean P; Scott, Stephen H; Mousavi, Parvin

    2013-06-01

    Traditional clinical scores for assessment of impairments resulting from stroke are inherently subjective and limited by inter-rater and intra-rater reliability. In contrast, robotic technologies provide objective, highly repeatable tools for quantification of motor performance of stroke subjects. Although use of robotic technologies has been widely suggested in the literature, they are not an established tool and their relationship to traditional clinical scales for stroke diagnosis and prognosis is mostly unknown. In this study we propose the application of two non-linear system identification methods, Parallel Cascade Identification and Fast Orthogonal Search, for prediction of stroke-related clinical scores using robot-based metrics. We show the suitability of these two methods for prediction of both diagnostic and prognostic scores. We compare our results with a previously applied approach based on linear regression and show the superiority of our modeling approach. Our results also underscore the importance of quantifying proprioceptive deficits in the prediction of motor-related prognosis scores.

  11. Robust Prognostic Gene Expression Signatures in Bladder Cancer and Lung Adenocarcinoma Depend on Cell Cycle Related Genes

    PubMed Central

    Dancik, Garrett M.; Theodorescu, Dan

    2014-01-01

    Few prognostic biomarkers are approved for clinical use primarily because their initial performance cannot be repeated in independent datasets. We posited that robust biomarkers could be obtained by identifying deregulated biological processes shared among tumor types having a common etiology. We performed a gene set enrichment analysis in 20 publicly available gene expression datasets comprising 1968 patients having one of the three most common tobacco-related cancers (lung, bladder, head and neck) and identified cell cycle related genes as the most consistently prognostic class of biomarkers in bladder (BL) and lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD). We also found the prognostic value of 13 of 14 published BL and LUAD signatures were dependent on cell cycle related genes, supporting the importance of cell cycle related biomarkers for prognosis. Interestingly, no prognostic gene classes were identified in squamous cell lung carcinoma or head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. Next, a specific 31 gene cell cycle proliferation (CCP) signature, previously derived in prostate tumors was evaluated and found predictive of outcome in BL and LUAD cohorts in univariate and multivariate analyses. Specifically, CCP score significantly enhanced the predictive ability of multivariate models based on standard clinical variables for progression in BL patients and survival in LUAD patients in multiple cohorts. We then generated random CCP signatures of various sizes and found sets of 10–15 genes had robust performance in these BL and LUAD cohorts, a finding that was confirmed in an independent cohort. Our work characterizes the importance of cell cycle related genes in prognostic signatures for BL and LUAD patients and identifies a specific signature likely to survive additional validation. PMID:24465512

  12. CTLA-4 in mesothelioma patients: tissue expression, body fluid levels and possible relevance as a prognostic factor.

    PubMed

    Roncella, Silvio; Laurent, Stefania; Fontana, Vincenzo; Ferro, Paola; Franceschini, Maria Cristiana; Salvi, Sandra; Varesano, Serena; Boccardo, Simona; Vigani, Antonella; Morabito, Anna; Canessa, Pier Aldo; Giannoni, Ugo; Rosenberg, Ilan; Valentino, Alessandro; Fedeli, Franco; Merlo, Domenico Franco; Ceppi, Marcello; Riggio, Salvatore; Romani, Massimo; Saverino, Daniele; Poggi, Alessandro; Pistillo, Maria Pia

    2016-08-01

    CTLA-4 function as a negative regulator of T cell-mediated immune response is well established, whereas much less is known about the immunoregulatory role of its soluble isoform (sCTLA-4). No data are available on CTLA-4 expression and prognostic impact in malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM). We investigated, by immunohistochemistry, CTLA-4 expression in tumor tissues and, by ELISA, sCTLA-4 levels in sera and matched pleural effusions from 45 MPM patients. Prognostic effect of CTLA-4 expression on overall survival (OS) was assessed through Cox regression and prognostic significance expressed as death rate ratio (HR). We found that 56.0 % of MPM tissues expressed CTLA-4 with variable intensity and percentage of positive cells estimated by the immunoreactive score. sCTLA-4 levels were significantly higher in sera (S-sCTLA-4) than in pleural effusions (PE-sCTLA-4) (geometric mean ratio = 2.70, P value = 0.020). CTLA-4 expression at the tissue level was higher in the epithelioid histological subtype than in the sarcomatoid, whereas at the serum level, it was higher in the sarcomatoid subtype. A homogeneous favorable prognostic effect was found for CTLA-4 overexpression in tissue, serum and pleural effusion. Interestingly, only the PE-sCTLA-4 was found to be a statistically significant positive prognostic factor (HR = 0.37, 95 % CI = 0.18-0.77, P value = 0.007). Indeed, PE-sCTLA-4 correlated with CTLA-4 expression in tissues, whereas this latter expression showed a weak association with OS. To confirm our findings, further experimental evidences obtained from a larger cohort of MPM patients are required. However, our results would indicate a positive correlation of PE-sCTLA-4 levels and OS in MPM patients.

  13. Developing a multivariable prognostic model for pancreatic endocrine tumors using the clinical data warehouse resources of a single institution.

    PubMed

    Botsis, Taxiarchis; Anagnostou, Valsamo K; Hartvigsen, Gunnar; Hripcsak, George; Weng, Chunhua

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Current staging systems are not accurate for classifying pancreatic endocrine tumors (PETs) by risk. Here, we developed a prognostic model for PETs and compared it to the WHO classification system. METHODS: We identified 98 patients diagnosed with PET at NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital/Columbia University Medical Center (1999 to 2009). Tumor and clinical characteristics were retrieved and associations with survival were assessed by univariate Cox analysis. A multivariable model was constructed and a risk score was calculated; the prognostic strength of our model was assessed with the concordance index. RESULTS: Our cohort had median age of 60 years and consisted of 61.2% women; median follow-up time was 10.4 months (range: 0.1-99.6) with a 5-year survival of 61.5%. The majority of PETs were non-functional and no difference was observed between functional and non-functional tumors with respect to WHO stage, age, pathologic characteristics or survival. Distant metastases, aspartate aminotransferase-AST and surgical resection (HR=3.39, 95% CI: 1.38-8.35, p=0.008, HR=3.73, 95% CI: 1.20-11.57, p=0.023 and HR=0.20, 95% CI: 0.08-0.51, p<0.001 respectively) were the strongest predictors in the univariate analysis. Age, perineural and/or lymphovascular invasion, distant metastases and AST were the independent prognostic factors in the final multivariable model; a risk score was calculated and classified patients into low (n=40), intermediate (n=48) and high risk (n=10) groups. The concordance index of our model was 0.93 compared to 0.72 for the WHO system. CONCLUSION: Our prognostic model was highly accurate in stratifying patients by risk; novel approaches as such could thus be incorporated into clinical decisions.

  14. Obstructive Jaundice in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Response after Percutaneous Transhepatic Biliary Drainage and Prognostic Factors

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, Joon Woo; Han, Joon Koo; Kim, Tae Kyoung; Choi, Byung Ihn; Park, Seong Ho; Ko, Young Hwan; Yoon, Chang Jin; Yeon, Kyung-Mo

    2002-06-15

    Purpose: To evaluate the therapeutic effect of percutaneous transhepatic biliary drainage (PTBD) in patients with obstructive jaundice caused by biliary involvement of hepatocellular carcinomas (HCC) and to determine the prognostic factors. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the data of 22 consecutive patients (M:F = 20:2, mean age 52.8 years).Inclusion criteria were the patient having obstructive jaundice caused by HCC that invaded the bile ducts and having at least 4 weeks of follow-up data after the PTBD. We defined 'good response' and 'poor response' as whether the level of total bilirubin decreased more than 50% in 4 weeks or not. Total bilirubin level (T-bil),Child-Pugh score and the location of biliary obstruction for the two groups were compared. In addition, the interval between clinical onset of jaundice and PTBD, the degree of parenchymal atrophy and the size of the primary tumor were compared. Results: Of the 22 patients, 13 (59.1%) showed good response. T-bil was significantly lower in the good response group than in the poor (14.2 {+-} 6 mg/dlvs 25.9 {+-} 13.8 mg/dl, p = .017). In the five patients with T-bil <10 mg/dl, four (80%) showed good response,while in nine patients with T-bil > 20 mg/dl, only three (33%)showed good response. Although statistically not significant, patients with Child score <10 showed better results [good response rate of 66.7% (12/18)] than patients with Child score ?10 [good response rate of 25% (1/4)]. Involvement of secondary confluence of the bile duct also served as a poor prognostic factor (p =0.235). The interval between clinical onset of jaundice and PTBD, the presence of parenchymal atrophy and the size of the tumor did not show significant effect. Conclusion: Early and effective biliary drainage might be necessary in this group of patients with limited hepatic function.

  15. Cerebrospinal Fluid Cortisol and Progesterone Profiles and Outcomes Prognostication after Severe Traumatic Brain Injury

    PubMed Central

    Santarsieri, Martina; Niyonkuru, Christian; McCullough, Emily H.; Dobos, Julie A.; Dixon, C. Edward; Berga, Sarah L.

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Despite significant advances in the management of head trauma, there remains a lack of pharmacological treatment options for traumatic brain injury (TBI). While progesterone clinical trials have shown promise, corticosteroid trials have failed. The purpose of this study was to (1) characterize endogenous cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) progesterone and cortisol levels after TBI, (2) determine relationships between CSF and serum profiles, and (3) assess the utility of these hormones as predictors of long-term outcomes. We evaluated 130 adults with severe TBI. Serum samples (n=538) and CSF samples (n=746) were collected for 6 days post-injury, analyzed for cortisol and progesterone, and compared with healthy controls (n=13). Hormone data were linked with clinical data, including Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) scores at 6 and 12 months. Group based trajectory (TRAJ) analysis was used to develop temporal hormone profiles delineating distinct subpopulations. Compared with controls, CSF cortisol levels were significantly and persistently elevated during the first week after TBI, and high CSF cortisol levels were associated with poor outcome. As a precursor to cortisol, progesterone mediated these effects. Serum and CSF levels for both cortisol and progesterone were strongly correlated after TBI relative to controls, possibly because of blood–brain barrier disruption. Also, differentially impaired hormone transport and metabolism mechanisms after TBI, potential de novo synthesis of steroids within the brain, and the complex interplay of cortisol and pro-inflammatory cytokines may explain these acute hormone profiles and, when taken together, may help shed light on why corticosteroid trials have previously failed and why progesterone treatment after TBI may be beneficial. PMID:24354775

  16. Angiogenin and gestational trophoblastic tumors, a promising prognostic marker.

    PubMed

    Shaarawy, Mohamed; El-Mallah, Samira Y; Sheiba, Mamdouh

    2003-03-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic and prognostic values of serum angiogenin concentration in cases with gestational trophoblastic diseases (GTDs). Seventy-two patients with GTDs and 20 first trimester healthy pregnant women (controls) participated in this study. According to the WHO scoring system, GTDs were subgrouped into 24 hydatiform mole spontaneous regression (HMSR), 18 postmolar gestational trophoblastic tumors of high risk (PMHR), 16 low-risk choriocarcinoma, and 14 high-risk choriocarcinoma. Before treatment, a blood sample from each case was assayed for human chorionic gonadotrophin , subunit (hCGb) by radioimmunoassay and angiogenin by enzyme immunoassay. Follow-up hCGb and angiogenin assays were carried out for 1 year after treatment. Pretreatment of abnormal values of serum angiogenin (> 711 ng/ml, upper 95% confidence interval of controls) was encountered in 100% of PMHR cases compared to no single case of HMSR. Serum angiogenin levels in low- and high-risk cases with choriocarcinoma were significantly higher than in controls. Abnormal high values were encountered in 25% and 86% of cases, respectively. None of the low-risk cases exceeded 920 ng/ml, while 72% of high-risk cases exceeded this value. Serial angiogenin assays were correlated with disease progression and were positively correlated with serum hCGb (r = 0.75, p < 0.01). In conclusion, serum angiogenin may be a valuable marker of differential diagnosis of GTDs and its serial measurements are suggestive of remission and effective therapeutic intervention or disease progression.

  17. MCT4 surpasses the prognostic relevance of the ancillary protein CD147 in clear cell renal cell carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Winter, Stefan; Rausch, Steffen; Hennenlotter, Jörg; Nies, Anne T.; Stenzl, Arnulf; Scharpf, Marcus; Fend, Falko; Kruck, Stephan; Schwab, Matthias; Schaeffeler, Elke

    2015-01-01

    Cluster of differentiation 147 (CD147/BSG) is a transmembrane glycoprotein mediating oncogenic processes partly through its role as binding partner for monocarboxylate transporter MCT4/SLC16A3. As demonstrated for MCT4, CD147 is proposed to be associated with progression in clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC). In this study, we evaluated the prognostic relevance of CD147 in comparison to MCT4/SLC16A3 expression and DNA methylation. Methods CD147 protein expression was assessed in two independent ccRCC-cohorts (n = 186, n = 59) by immunohistochemical staining of tissue microarrays and subsequent manual as well as automated software-supported scoring (Tissue Studio, Definien sAG). Epigenetic regulation of CD147 was investigated using RNAseq and DNA methylation data of The Cancer Genome Atlas. These results were validated in our cohort. Relevance of prognostic models for cancer-specific survival, comprising CD147 and MCT4 expression or SLC16A3 DNA methylation, was compared using chi-square statistics. Results CD147 protein expression generated with Tissue Studio correlated significantly with those from manual scoring (P < 0.0001, rS = 0.85), indicating feasibility of software-based evaluation exemplarily for the membrane protein CD147 in ccRCC. Association of CD147 expression with patient outcome differed between cohorts. DNA methylation in the CD147/BSG promoter was not associated with expression. Comparison of prognostic relevance of CD147/BSG and MCT4/SLC16A3, showed higher significance for MCT4 expression and superior prognostic power for DNA methylation at specific CpG-sites in the SLC16A3 promoter (e.g. CD147 protein: P = 0.7780, Harrell's c-index = 53.7% vs. DNA methylation: P = 0.0076, Harrell's c-index = 80.0%). Conclusions Prognostic significance of CD147 protein expression could not surpass that of MCT4, especially of SLC16A3 DNA methylation, corroborating the role of MCT4 as prognostic biomarker for ccRCC. PMID:26384346

  18. Scoring with the Computer: Alternative Procedures for Improving the Reliability of Holistic Essay Scoring

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Attali, Yigal; Lewis, Will; Steier, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Automated essay scoring can produce reliable scores that are highly correlated with human scores, but is limited in its evaluation of content and other higher-order aspects of writing. The increased use of automated essay scoring in high-stakes testing underscores the need for human scoring that is focused on higher-order aspects of writing. This…

  19. Adaptive Prognostics for Rolling Element Bearing Condition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Y.; Billington, S.; Zhang, C.; Kurfess, T.; Danyluk, S.; Liang, S.

    1999-01-01

    Rolling element bearing failure is one of the foremost causes of breakdown in rotating machinery. This paper proposes a remaining life adaptation methodology based on mechanistic modeling and parameter tuning. Vibration measurement is used to estimate defect severity by monitoring the signals generated from rotating bearings. Through a defect propagation model and defect diagnostic model, an adaptive algorithm is developed to fine tune the parameters involved in the propagation model by comparing predicted and measured defect sizes. In this manner, the instantaneous rate of defect propagation can be captured despite defect growth behavior variation. Therefore, a precise estimation of the remaining life can be determined. Simulations and experimental results are presented to illustrate the implementation principles and to verify the applicability of the adaptive prognostic methodology.

  20. Sensor Systems for Prognostics and Health Management

    PubMed Central

    Cheng, Shunfeng; Azarian, Michael H.; Pecht, Michael G.

    2010-01-01

    Prognostics and health management (PHM) is an enabling discipline consisting of technologies and methods to assess the reliability of a product in its actual life cycle conditions to determine the advent of failure and mitigate system risk. Sensor systems are needed for PHM to monitor environmental, operational, and performance-related characteristics. The gathered data can be analyzed to assess product health and predict remaining life. In this paper, the considerations for sensor system selection for PHM applications, including the parameters to be measured, the performance needs, the electrical and physical attributes, reliability, and cost of the sensor system, are discussed. The state-of-the-art sensor systems for PHM and the emerging trends in technologies of sensor systems for PHM are presented. PMID:22219686

  1. Staging and prognostication of multiple myeloma

    PubMed Central

    Fonseca, Rafael; Monge, Jorge; Dimopoulos, Meletios A

    2014-01-01

    Multiple myeloma (MM) is a heterogeneous disease that, over the past 15 years, has seen an increased understanding of its biology and of novel therapeutic options. Distinctive subtypes of the disease have been described, each with different outcomes and clinic-pathological features. Even though a detailed classification of MM into at least seven or eight major subtypes is possible, a more practical clinical approach can classify the disease into high-risk and non-high-risk MM. Such classification has permitted a more personalized approach to the management of the disease. Additionally, risk stratification should be included in outcome discussions with patients, as survival differs significantly by high-risk status. Nowadays, test for risk stratification are widely available and can be routinely used in the clinic. A greater understanding of the genetic abnormalities underlying the biology of MM will allow for the development of novel targeted therapies and better prognostic markers of the disease. PMID:24483346

  2. Prognostic Significance of Imaging Myocardial Sympathetic Innervation.

    PubMed

    Malhotra, Saurabh; Fernandez, Stanley F; Fallavollita, James A; Canty, John M

    2015-08-01

    There has been a longstanding interest in understanding whether the presence of inhomogeneity in myocardial sympathetic innervation can predict patients at risk of sudden cardiac arrest from lethal ventricular arrhythmias. The advent of radiolabeled norepinephrine analogs has allowed this to be imaged in patients with ischemic and non-ischemic cardiomyopathy using single, photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and positron emission tomography (PET). Several observational studies have demonstrated that globally elevated myocardial sympathetic tone (as reflected by reduced myocardial norepinephrine analog uptake) can predict composite cardiac end-points including total cardiovascular mortality. More recent studies have indicated that quantifying the extent of regional denervation can predict the risk of lethal ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. This review will summarize our current understanding of the prognostic significance of altered myocardial sympathetic innervation. PMID:26087899

  3. Prognostic Significance of p16 Expression in Advanced Cervical Cancer Treated With Definitive Radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Schwarz, Julie K.; Lewis, James S.; Pfeifer, John; Huettner, Phyllis; Grigsby, Perry

    2012-09-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prognostic significance of p16 immunohistochemistry (IHC) in patients with advanced cervical cancer treated with radiation therapy. Materials and Methods: This was a retrospective study of 126 patients with International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics Stages Ib1-IVb cervical cancer treated with radiation. Concurrent cisplatin chemotherapy was given to 108 patients. A tissue microarray (TMA) was constructed from the paraffin-embedded diagnostic biopsy specimens. Immunoperoxidase staining was performed on the TMA and a p16 monoclonal antibody was utilized. IHC p16 extent was evaluated and scored in quartiles: 0 = no staining, 1 = 1-25% of cells staining, 2 = 26 to 50%, 3 = 51 to 75%, and 4 = 76 to 100%. Results: The p16 IHC score was 4 in 115 cases, 3 in 1, 2 in 3 and 0 in 7. There was no relationship between p16 score and tumor histology. Patients with p16-negative tumors were older (mean age at diagnosis 65 vs. 52 years for p16-positive tumors; p = 0.01). The 5-year cause-specific survivals were 33% for p16-negative cases (score = 0) compared with 63% for p16-positive cases (scores 1, 2, 3 or 4; p = 0.07). The 5-year recurrence-free survivals were 34% for those who were p16-negative vs. 57% for those who were p16-positive (p = 0.09). In addition, patients with p16-positive tumors (score > 0) were more likely to be complete metabolic responders as assessed by the 3-month posttherapy 18 [F]-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET)/computed tomograph compared with patients with p16-negative tumors (p = 0.03). Conclusion: p16 expression is predictive of improved survival outcome after chemoradiation therapy for advanced-stage invasive cervical carcinoma. Further testing will be needed to evaluate p16-negative cervical tumors.

  4. Prognostic factors and classification in multiple myeloma.

    PubMed Central

    San Miguel, J. F.; Sànchez, J.; Gonzalez, M.

    1989-01-01

    Analyses of prognostic factors have allowed the design of staging systems in different haematological disorders. In a series of 220 patients with multiple myeloma, univariate analysis showed that nine parameters had a significant adverse effect on survival; poor performance status (Karnowsky scaling system less than 70%), infections before diagnosis, renal impairment (assessed either by creatinine clearance greater than 2 mg dl-1 or urea greater than 40 mg dl-1), serum calcium (greater than 10 mg dl-1), severe anaemia (less than 8.5 g dl-1), the presence of Bence-Jones proteinuria, failure to achieve complete remission, more than 40% plasma cells in bone marrow and a low paraprotein index (monoclonal component/% plasma cells: P less than 0.09). In addition, this index correlated significantly with all the other prognostic factors except performance status. The best combination of disease characteristics selected by means of the Cox regression proportional hazards method were performance status and creatinine levels. Additionally, by factor analysis of principal components we obtained a regression equation that included creatinine levels, haemoglobin, performance status and paraprotein index. Using this it was possible to separate the series of patients into three risk categories: A (65 patients), B (69 patients) and C (65 patients) with a median survival of 41, 24 and 12 months, respectively. The model provided similar results to those of the British Medical Research Council, whereas the staging systems proposed by Durie and Salmon, Merlin et al. and Carbone et al. had a lower discriminant value in our series. PMID:2757917

  5. Accelerated Aging in Electrolytic Capacitors for Prognostics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Celaya, Jose R.; Kulkarni, Chetan; Saha, Sankalita; Biswas, Gautam; Goebel, Kai Frank

    2012-01-01

    The focus of this work is the analysis of different degradation phenomena based on thermal overstress and electrical overstress accelerated aging systems and the use of accelerated aging techniques for prognostics algorithm development. Results on thermal overstress and electrical overstress experiments are presented. In addition, preliminary results toward the development of physics-based degradation models are presented focusing on the electrolyte evaporation failure mechanism. An empirical degradation model based on percentage capacitance loss under electrical overstress is presented and used in: (i) a Bayesian-based implementation of model-based prognostics using a discrete Kalman filter for health state estimation, and (ii) a dynamic system representation of the degradation model for forecasting and remaining useful life (RUL) estimation. A leave-one-out validation methodology is used to assess the validity of the methodology under the small sample size constrain. The results observed on the RUL estimation are consistent through the validation tests comparing relative accuracy and prediction error. It has been observed that the inaccuracy of the model to represent the change in degradation behavior observed at the end of the test data is consistent throughout the validation tests, indicating the need of a more detailed degradation model or the use of an algorithm that could estimate model parameters on-line. Based on the observed degradation process under different stress intensity with rest periods, the need for more sophisticated degradation models is further supported. The current degradation model does not represent the capacitance recovery over rest periods following an accelerated aging stress period.

  6. Clinical and Histopathological Prognostic Factors in Chondrosarcomas

    PubMed Central

    Myhre-Jensen, Olaf; Schiødt, Torben; Jurik, Anne G.; Keller, Johnny; Mouridsen, Henning T.; Lund, Bjarne

    1997-01-01

    Purpose. In an attempt to identify clinical and histopathological factors of prognostic importance in chondrosarcomas, 115 cases of malignant and borderline chondromatous tumours were reviewed. Patients/methods. Histopathological features tested for prognostic information as well as reproducibility included cellularity, nuclear pleomorphism, multinucleated cells, mitotic activity and grade. Eleven patients had a biopsy only, and a short survival (median 2.0 years); these were excluded from further analysis. The remaining 104 patients who had received intended curative treatment had a median survival of 14.7 years. Results. In univariate analysis, tumour size, extra-compartmental growth, surgical margin and sex were significantly correlated to recurrence-free survival (RFS); sex was marginally significant while age, site and pathological parameters were not significant. Overall survival (OAS) was likewise found to be independent of pathological features as well as site, size and surgical margin; but age, sex and extra-compartmental growth were statistically significant. However, when the same parameters were entered into a stepwise Cox (multivariate) analysis, only surgical margin, cellularity and pleomorphism were significantly related to RFS; margin, grade, pleomorphism and age to OAS. Overall inter-observer agreement on grade was relatively low: 0.54, with a Kappa value of 0.32. It was not better for the other histological parameters, with the exception of the mitotic count. However, acceptable values were achieved when the material was divided into low-grade (grade I and below) vs high-grade (grade II and III) lesions: overall agreement 0.79, Kappa 0.56. Discussion. Although the grading of chondrosarcomas is in need of improvement, its replacement by semiquantitative evaluation of individual histopathological parameters as performed in this study offers no advantage. Among the clinical parameters, only the adequacy of the surgical treatment and the patient's age

  7. Renal tumors: diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers.

    PubMed

    Tan, Puay Hoon; Cheng, Liang; Rioux-Leclercq, Nathalie; Merino, Maria J; Netto, George; Reuter, Victor E; Shen, Steven S; Grignon, David J; Montironi, Rodolfo; Egevad, Lars; Srigley, John R; Delahunt, Brett; Moch, Holger

    2013-10-01

    The International Society of Urological Pathology convened a consensus conference on renal cancer, preceded by an online survey, to address issues relating to the diagnosis and reporting of renal neoplasia. In this report, the role of biomarkers in the diagnosis and assessment of prognosis of renal tumors is addressed. In particular we focused upon the use of immunohistochemical markers and the approach to specific differential diagnostic scenarios. We enquired whether cytogenetic and molecular tools were applied in practice and asked for views on the perceived prognostic role of biomarkers. Both the survey and conference voting results demonstrated a high degree of consensus in participants' responses regarding prognostic/predictive markers and molecular techniques, whereas it was apparent that biomarkers for these purposes remained outside the diagnostic realm pending clinical validation. Although no individual antibody or panel of antibodies reached consensus for classifying renal tumors, or for confirming renal metastatic disease, it was noted from the online survey that 87% of respondents used immunohistochemistry to subtype renal tumors sometimes or occasionally, and a majority (87%) used immunohistochemical markers (Pax 2 or Pax 8, renal cell carcinoma [RCC] marker, panel of pan-CK, CK7, vimentin, and CD10) in confirming the diagnosis of metastatic RCC. There was consensus that immunohistochemistry should be used for histologic subtyping and applied before reaching a diagnosis of unclassified RCC. At the conference, there was consensus that TFE3 and TFEB analysis ought to be requested when RCC was diagnosed in a young patient or when histologic appearances were suggestive of the translocation subtype; whereas Pax 2 and/or Pax 8 were considered to be the most useful markers in the diagnosis of a renal primary. PMID:24025522

  8. Prognostic impact of stress testing in coronary artery disease

    SciTech Connect

    Severi, S.; Michelassi, C. )

    1991-05-01

    Observational data prospectively collected permit the examination of a complex set of decisions, including the decision not to perform any stress testing. Patients with or without previous myocardial infarction admitted for coronary evaluation and not submitted to any stress testing because of clinical reasons are at a higher risk for subsequent death. For prognostication, no test has been better validated than exercise electrocardiography: it can identify patients at low and high risk for future cardiac events among those without symptoms, with typical chest pain, and with previous myocardial infarction. In patients with triple-vessel disease, the results of exercise also allow those at low and high risk to be recognized. Both exercise radionuclide angiography and {sup 201}Tl scintigraphy (the latter in larger patient populations) have also demonstrated significant prognostic value on patients with or without previous myocardial infarction. Neither one has shown superiority to the other in prognostication. So far, they have been considered the only viable alternatives to exercise electrocardiography stress testing for diagnosis and prognostication. However, their costs limit their extensive application. Preliminary data suggest that intravenous dipyridamole echocardiography can be used for both diagnosis and prognostication of coronary artery disease; moreover, the prognostic information derived from dipyridamole echocardiography testing seems independent of and additive to that provided by exercise electrocardiography. Further prospective studies on larger patient populations are needed to better define the prognostic value of dipyridamole echocardiography testing.47 references.

  9. Institutional, Retrospective Analysis of 777 Patients With Brain Metastases: Treatment Outcomes and Diagnosis-Specific Prognostic Factors

    SciTech Connect

    Antoni, Delphine; Clavier, Jean-Baptiste; Pop, Marius; Schumacher, Catherine; Lefebvre, François; Noël, Georges

    2013-07-15

    Purpose: To retrospectively evaluate the prognostic factors and survival of a series of 777 patients with brain metastases (BM) from a single institution. Methods and Materials: Patients were treated with surgery followed by whole-brain radiation therapy (WBRT) or with WBRT alone in 16.3% and 83.7% of the cases, respectively. The patients were RPA (recursive partitioning analysis) class I, II, and III in 11.2%, 69.6%, and 18.4% of the cases, respectively; RPA class II-a, II-b, and II-c in 8.3%, 24.8%, and 66.9% of the cases, respectively; and with GPA (graded prognostic assessment) scores of 0-1.0, 1.5-2.0, 2.5-3.0, and 3.5-4.0 in 35%, 27.5%, 18.2%, and 8.6% of the cases, respectively. Results: The median overall survival (OS) times according to RPA class I, II, and III were 20.1, 5.1, and 1.3 months, respectively (P<.0001); according to RPA class II-a, II-b, II-c: 9.1, 8.9, and 4.0 months, respectively (P<.0001); and according to GPA score 0-1.0, 1.5-2.0, 2.5-3.0, and 3.5-4.0: 2.5, 4.4, 9.0, and 19.1 months, respectively (P<.0001). By multivariate analysis, the favorable independent prognostic factors for survival were as follows: for gastrointestinal tumor, a high Karnofsky performance status (KPS) (P=.0003) and an absence of extracranial metastases (ECM) (P=.003); for kidney cancer, few BM (P=.002); for melanoma, few BM (P=.01), an absence of ECM (P=.002), and few ECM (P=.0002); for lung cancer, age (P=.007), a high KPS (P<.0001), an absence of ECM (P<.0001), few ECM and BM (P<.0001 and P=.0006, respectively), and control of the primary tumor (P=.004); and for breast cancer, age (P=.001), a high KPS (P=.007), control of the primary tumor (P=.05), and few ECM and BM (P=.01 and P=.0002, respectively). The triple-negative subtype was a significant unfavorable factor (P=.007). Conclusion: Prognostic factors varied by pathology. Our analysis confirms the strength of prognostic factors used to determine the GPA score, including the genetic subtype for breast cancer.

  10. Cormack Research Project: Glasgow University

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Skinner, Susan; Ryan, James M.

    1998-01-01

    The aim of this project was to investigate and improve upon existing methods of analysing data from COMITEL on the Gamma Ray Observatory for neutrons emitted during solar flares. In particular, a strategy for placing confidence intervals on neutron energy distributions, due to uncertainties on the response matrix has been developed. We have also been able to demonstrate the superior performance of one of a range of possible statistical regularization strategies. A method of generating likely models of neutron energy distributions has also been developed as a tool to this end. The project involved solving an inverse problem with noise being added to the data in various ways. To achieve this pre-existing C code was used to run Fortran subroutines which performed statistical regularization on the data.

  11. Does the choice of neighbourhood supermarket access measure influence associations with individual-level fruit and vegetable consumption? A case study from Glasgow

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Previous studies have provided mixed evidence with regards to associations between food store access and dietary outcomes. This study examines the most commonly applied measures of locational access to assess whether associations between supermarket access and fruit and vegetable consumption are affected by the choice of access measure and scale. Method Supermarket location data from Glasgow, UK (n = 119), and fruit and vegetable intake data from the ‘Health and Well-Being’ Survey (n = 1041) were used to compare various measures of locational access. These exposure variables included proximity estimates (with different points-of-origin used to vary levels of aggregation) and density measures using three approaches (Euclidean and road network buffers and Kernel density estimation) at distances ranging from 0.4 km to 5 km. Further analysis was conducted to assess the impact of using smaller buffer sizes for individuals who did not own a car. Associations between these multiple access measures and fruit and vegetable consumption were estimated using linear regression models. Results Levels of spatial aggregation did not impact on the proximity estimates. Counts of supermarkets within Euclidean buffers were associated with fruit and vegetable consumption at 1 km, 2 km and 3 km, and for our road network buffers at 2 km, 3 km, and 4 km. Kernel density estimates provided the strongest associations and were significant at a distance of 2 km, 3 km, 4 km and 5 km. Presence of a supermarket within 0.4 km of road network distance from where people lived was positively associated with fruit consumption amongst those without a car (coef. 0.657; s.e. 0.247; p0.008). Conclusions The associations between locational access to supermarkets and individual-level dietary behaviour are sensitive to the method by which the food environment variable is captured. Care needs to be taken to ensure robust and conceptually appropriate measures of

  12. The Scoring of Writing Portfolios: Phase 2

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    White, Edward M.

    2005-01-01

    Although most portfolio evaluation currently uses some adaptation of holistic scoring, the problems with scoring portfolios holistically are many, much more than for essays, and the problems are not readily resolvable. Indeed, many aspects of holistic scoring work against the principles behind portfolio assessment. We have from the start needed a…

  13. Local Linear Observed-Score Equating

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wiberg, Marie; van der Linden, Wim J.

    2011-01-01

    Two methods of local linear observed-score equating for use with anchor-test and single-group designs are introduced. In an empirical study, the two methods were compared with the current traditional linear methods for observed-score equating. As a criterion, the bias in the equated scores relative to true equating based on Lord's (1980)…

  14. Validation of Automated Scoring of Science Assessments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Ou Lydia; Rios, Joseph A.; Heilman, Michael; Gerard, Libby; Linn, Marcia C.

    2016-01-01

    Constructed response items can both measure the coherence of student ideas and serve as reflective experiences to strengthen instruction. We report on new automated scoring technologies that can reduce the cost and complexity of scoring constructed-response items. This study explored the accuracy of c-rater-ML, an automated scoring engine…

  15. "Score Choice": A Tempest in a Teapot?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoover, Eric

    2009-01-01

    A new option that allows students to choose which of their test scores to send to colleges has generated renewed criticism of the College Board. College Board officials tout the option, called Score Choice, as a way to ease test taker anxiety. Some prominent admissions officials have publicly described Score Choice as a sales tactic that will…

  16. Smoothing Methods for Estimating Test Score Distributions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kolen, Michael J.

    1991-01-01

    Estimation/smoothing methods that are flexible enough to fit a wide variety of test score distributions are reviewed: kernel method, strong true-score model-based method, and method that uses polynomial log-linear models. Applications of these methods include describing/comparing test score distributions, estimating norms, and estimating…

  17. Developing Score Reports for Cognitive Diagnostic Assessments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roberts, Mary Roduta; Gierl, Mark J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a framework to provide a structured approach for developing score reports for cognitive diagnostic assessments ("CDAs"). Guidelines for reporting and presenting diagnostic scores are based on a review of current educational test score reporting practices and literature from the area of information design. A sample diagnostic…

  18. Credit Scores, Race, and Residential Sorting

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nelson, Ashlyn Aiko

    2010-01-01

    Credit scores have a profound impact on home purchasing power and mortgage pricing, yet little is known about how credit scores influence households' residential location decisions. This study estimates the effects of credit scores on residential sorting behavior using a novel mortgage industry data set combining household demographic, credit, and…

  19. Developmental Sentence Scoring for Japanese (DSSJ)

    PubMed Central

    Miyata, Susanne; MacWhinney, Brian; Otomo, Kiyoshi; Sirai, Hidetosi; Oshima-Takane, Yuriko; Hirakawa, Makiko; Shirai, Yasuhiro; Sugiura, Masatoshi; Itoh, Keiko

    2014-01-01

    This paper reports on the development and use of the Developmental Sentence Scoring for Japanese (DSSJ), a new morpho-syntactical measure for Japanese constructed after the model of the English Developmental Sentence Scoring model (Lee, 1974). Using this measure, we calculated DSSJ scores for 84 children divided into six age groups between 2;8 and 5;2 on the basis of 100-sentence samples collected from free-play child-adult conversations. The analysis showed a high correlation of the DSSJ overall score with the Mean Length of Utterance. The analysis of the DSSJ subarea scores revealed large variations between these subarea scores for children with similar overall DSSJ scores. When investigating the high-scoring children (over 1 SD over group average), most children scored high in three to five subareas, but the combination of scores for these subareas varied from child to child. It is concluded that DSSJ is a valuable tool especially for the language acquisition research. The overall DSSJ score reliably reflects the overall morpho-syntactic development of Japanese children, and the subarea scores provide specific information on individual acquisition patterns. PMID:25414535

  20. A comparison of Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III scoring system in predicting mortality and length of stay at surgical intensive care unit

    PubMed Central

    Gilani, Mahryar Taghavi; Razavi, Majid; Azad, Azadeh Mokhtari

    2014-01-01

    Background: In critically ill patients, several scoring systems have been developed over the last three decades. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) are the most widely used scoring systems in the intensive care unit (ICU). The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic accuracy of SAPS II and APACHE II and APACHE III scoring systems in predicting short-term hospital mortality of surgical ICU patients. Materials and Methods: Prospectively collected data from 202 patients admitted to Mashhad University Hospital postoperative ICU were analyzed. Calibration was estimated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Discrimination was evaluated by using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under a ROC curve (AUC). Result: Two hundred and two patients admitted on post-surgical ICU were evaluated. The mean SAPS II, APACHE II, and APACHE III scores for survivors were found to be significantly lower than of non-survivors. The calibration was best for APACHE II score. Discrimination was excellent for APACHE II (AUC: 0.828) score and acceptable for APACHE III (AUC: 0.782) and SAPS II (AUC: 0.778) scores. Conclusion: APACHE II provided better discrimination than APACHE III and SAPS II calibration was good at APACHE II and poor at APACHE III and SAPS II. Use of APACHE II was excellent in this post-surgical ICU. PMID:24791049

  1. Prognostic Molecular Subtypes of Low-Grade Cancer of the Appendix

    PubMed Central

    Levine, Edward A; Votanopoulos, Konstantinos I; Qasem, Shadi A; Philip, John; Cummins, Kathleen A; Chou, Jeff W; Ruiz, Jimmy; D’Agostino, Ralph; Shen, Perry; Miller, Lance D

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND Appendiceal cancer (AC) patients treated with cytoreductive surgery (CRS) and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) often demonstrate an unpredictable variability in their survival outcomes. Biomarkers predictive of CRS/HIPEC efficacy could better guide treatment decisions. We hypothesized that variation in the transcriptional programming of AC tumors might distinguish molecular subtypes with differential outcomes after CRS/HIPEC. STUDY DESIGN Gene expression profiles of 2 AC cohorts were analyzed using Affymetrix whole-genome expression microarrays. Hierarchical clustering methods, Kaplan-Meier analysis, and Cox regression models were used to discover and validate prognostic molecular subtypes of AC. Gene set enrichment analysis was used to infer pathologic attributes of the molecular subtypes. RESULTS Unsupervised hierarchical clustering analysis of tumor expression profiles revealed a 139-gene cassette that distinguished 2 molecular subtypes (based on low vs high expression of the gene cassette) with statistically significant survival differences (disease-specific survival, p = 0.0075; progression-free survival, p = 0.0072). In a second AC cohort, the 139-gene cassette reproducibly partitioned tumors into subtypes with significant survival differences. Tumors showing high relative expression of the genes comprising the cassette associated with poor survival outcomes (disease-specific survival, p = 0.047; progression-free survival, p = 0.0079), and exhibited gene expression patterns enriched for oncogenic processes and pathways. The prognostic value of the molecular subtypes was specific for low-grade appendiceal tumors (disease-specific survival, p = 0.028; progression-free survival, p = 0.0016), and remained significant in the presence of conventional prognostic markers, including grade, surgical resection score, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group status, and age. CONCLUSIONS The 139-gene cassette can have actionable clinical utility for

  2. Value of quantitative pathological variables as prognostic factors in advanced ovarian carcinoma.

    PubMed Central

    Brinkhuis, M; Baak, J P; Meijer, G A; van Diest, P J; Mogensen, O; Bichel, P; Neijt, J P

    1996-01-01

    AIMS: To evaluate correlations among clinical, pathological, morphometric, stereological, and DNA flow cytometric variables and their prognostic value in advanced ovarian cancer. METHODS: Tissue was collected from 180 patients with advanced ovarian cancer. All 180 had undergone debulking surgery and were being treated with cisplatin. Long term follow up was available for all patients. The mitotic activity index (MAI), volume % of epithelium (VPE), mean nuclear area (MNA), standard deviation of the nuclear area (SDNA), estimates of volume weighted mean nuclear volume (nu v), and variables obtained from minimum spanning tree (MST) analysis were assessed in the least differentiated tumour section in each case. DNA flow cytometry was also performed. RESULTS: Quantitative pathological features differed significantly with respect to histological grade. The MAI, MNA, SDNA, and the number of points connected to three neighbours differed significantly among the different DNA ploidy groups. The VPE and number of points connected to two or three neighbours differed significantly between FIGO stages III and IV. Fifty two (29%) patients survived. FIGO stage, residual disease and SDNA had prognostic significance on both univariate and multivariate survival analysis. In patients with FIGO III stage disease and residual tumour nodes < or = 2 cm in diameter (67 patients, 29 (43%) survivors) a prognostic index was established based on SDNA and of the line length of the MST. The median survival time was not reached in a subgroup of patients with favourable prognosis (overall survival 57%). Median survival was 32 months for patients with an unfavourable index score (overall survival 28%). CONCLUSION: Morphometric variables have important additional value in predicting prognosis in patients with advanced ovarian cancer. PMID:8655681

  3. Treatment, Outcome and Prognostic Factors in Renal Cell Carcinoma - A Single Center Study (2000-2010)

    PubMed Central

    Achermann, Christof; Stenner, Frank; Rothschild, Sacha I.

    2016-01-01

    In Switzerland efficient availability of novel drugs for renal cell cancer (RCC) has been granted early. Since the advent of the targeted agents for RCC the usage of these drugs has been reported to improve progression free survival. Here, we find that patients who are able to receive sequential targeted therapy, including tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) and mTOR inhibitors (mTORi), have a largely better outcome than those who have less exposure to these agents. The value of the prognostic scores developed by Motzer and Heng is fully reflected by the outcomes according to prognostic risk groups in our unselected patient cohort. Also, the use of surgical intervention appears to be an important prognostic factor, however with a somehow diminished effect by novel systemic therapies. The importance of multiple lines of targeted therapies is underlined by this retrospective analysis. For patients with metastatic RCC not receiving targeted therapy the median OS was 22.6 months compared to those with one TKI 25.4 months. Patients receiving a second-line therapy (median overall survival 27.6 months) and those patients with three or more lines of therapy (43.8 months) have the greatest benefit. Also, exposure to a mTORi improves survival versus non-exposure to mTORi (63.3 vs. 22.3 months, p=0.038). In conclusion a trend towards improved survival is confirmed for an unselected population when the full variety of therapeutic options is available and can be used for the individual patient. PMID:27313782

  4. Severe muscle depletion in patients on the liver transplant wait list: its prevalence and independent prognostic value.

    PubMed

    Tandon, Puneeta; Ney, Michael; Irwin, Ivana; Ma, Mang M; Gramlich, Leah; Bain, Vincent G; Esfandiari, Nina; Baracos, Vickie; Montano-Loza, Aldo J; Myers, Robert P

    2012-10-01

    As detected by cross-sectional imaging, severe muscle depletion, which is termed sarcopenia, holds promise for prognostication in patients with cirrhosis. Our aims were to describe the prevalence and predictors of sarcopenia in patients with cirrhosis listed for liver transplantation (LT) and to determine its independent prognostic significance for the prediction of waiting-list mortality. Adults listed for LT who underwent abdominal computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging within 6 weeks of activation were retrospectively identified. The exclusions were hepatocellular carcinoma, acute liver failure, prior LT, and listing for multivisceral transplantation or living related LT. Sixty percent of the 142 eligible patients were male, the median age was 53 years, and the median Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score at listing was 15. Forty-one percent were sarcopenic; sarcopenia was more prevalent in males versus females (54% versus 21%, P < 0.001) and increased with the Child-Pugh class (10% for class A, 34% for class B, and 54% for class C, P = 0.007). Male sex, the dry-weight body mass index (BMI), and Child-Pugh class C cirrhosis (but not the MELD score) were independent predictors of sarcopenia. Sarcopenia was an independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio = 2.36, 95% confidence interval = 1.23-4.53) after adjustments for age and MELD scores. In conclusion, sarcopenia is associated with increased waiting-list mortality and is poorly predicted by subjective nutritional assessment tools such as BMI and subjective global assessment. If this is validated in larger studies, the objective assessment of sarcopenia holds promise for prognostication in this patient population. PMID:22740290

  5. Relative prognostic value of rest thallium-201 imaging, radionuclide ventriculography and 24 hour ambulatory electrocardiographic monitoring after acute myocardial infarction

    SciTech Connect

    Hakki, A.H.; Nestico, P.F.; Heo, J.; Unwala, A.A.; Iskandrian, A.S.

    1987-07-01

    Rest thallium-201 scintigraphy, radionuclide ventriculography and 24 hour Holter monitoring are acceptable methods to assess myocardial necrosis, performance and electrical instability. This study examined the relative value of the three tests, when obtained a mean of 7 days after acute myocardial infarction, in predicting 1 year mortality in 93 patients. Planar thallium-201 images were obtained in three projections and were scored on a scale of 0 to 4 in 15 segments (normal score = 60). Patients were classified as having high risk test results as follows: thallium score less than or equal to 45 (33 patients), left ventricular ejection fraction less than or equal to 40% (51 patients) and complex ventricular arrhythmias on Holter monitoring (36 patients). During the follow-up of 6.4 +/- 3.4 months (mean +/- SD), 15 patients died of cardiac causes. All three tests were important predictors of survival by univariate Cox survival analysis; the thallium score, however, was the only important predictor by multivariate analysis. The predictive power of the thallium score was comparable with that of combined ejection fraction and Holter monitoring (chi-square = 21 versus chi-square = 22). Thus, rest thallium-201 imaging performed before hospital discharge provides important prognostic information in survivors of acute myocardial infarction which is comparable with that provided by left ventricular ejection fraction and Holter monitoring. Patients with a lower thallium score (large perfusion defects) are at high risk of cardiac death during the first year after infarction.

  6. Biologic score and mortality based on a 30-year mortality follow-up: radiation effects research foundation adult health study.

    PubMed

    Kasagi, Fumiyoshi; Yamada, Michiko; Sasaki, Hideo; Fujita, Shoichiro

    2009-08-01

    This study aimed to test whether scored biologic functions can predict individual life expectancies and to investigate the disease-related and time-related differences in evaluated associations. A biologic score was defined as the first principal component score of the five physiological tests. Study participants were 4,871 people aged 35-74 years at baseline examination in 1970-1972 and followed until the end of 1999. We evaluated the prognostic value of the biologic score by Cox proportional hazard analysis. In all age and sex groups, increasing trends of mortality for all diseases by increment of biologic score were observed after adjustment for potential risk factors. The validity of the biologic score was significant throughout the entire study period. Each disease except cancer showed a significant association with biologic score at baseline examination. In conclusion, the biologic score is a valid predictor of life span in this large-scale prospective study of middle-aged and elderly Japanese.

  7. Committee Opinion No. 644: The Apgar Score.

    PubMed

    2015-10-01

    The Apgar score provides an accepted and convenient method for reporting the status of the newborn infant immediately after birth and the response to resuscitation if needed. The Apgar score alone cannot be considered to be evidence of or a consequence of asphyxia, does not predict individual neonatal mortality or neurologic outcome, and should not be used for that purpose. An Apgar score assigned during a resuscitation is not equivalent to a score assigned to a spontaneously breathing infant. The American Academy of Pediatrics and the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists encourage use of an expanded Apgar score reporting form that accounts for concurrent resuscitative interventions.

  8. Role of Histomorphology and Chronic Inflammation Score in Chronic Dacryocystitis

    PubMed Central

    Chakrabarti, Sudipta; Banerjee, Manas; Pal, Debashis

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Diseases of lacrimal drainage system account for nearly 3% of visits to eye clinic. Chronic dacryocystitis is a frequently encountered disorder among these patients. Histomorphology of specimens obtained after Dacryocystorhinostomy (DCR) is a pertinent indicator of prognostic outcome. Aim The aim of the study was to evaluate histopathology of specimens obtained after DCR and to elucidate patterns and score of chronic inflammation encountered. Materials and Methods The study was conducted for a period of one year. Total of 50 patients who were clinically diagnosed as Chronic Dacryocystitis and underwent DCR were included. Following DCR, specimens of lacrimal sac, nasal mucous membrane and nasal bone were collected. Histopathological slides were examined for chronic inflammatory cell infiltration, fibrosis and capillary proliferation and were graded according to severity, in each specimen. A Chronic Inflammation Score (CIS) was recorded for each case. Results The average age of patients was 39.04±14.22 years and their age ranged between 13 and 62 years. There were 28 (56%) females and 22 (44%) males in the study group. The nasal bone did not reveal any abnormality in any case. The nasal mucous membrane showed mild chronic inflammatory cell infiltration in 46 (92%) cases and moderate degree in 4 (8%) patients. Chronic inflammation with granulation tissue formation was noted in lacrimal sacs of all patients. The CIS revealed that 14 (28%) cases belonged to “mild” group, 26 (52%) to “moderate” group and 10 (20%) to “severe” category. Conclusion The inclusion of CIS in histomorphological evaluation of DCR specimens is recommended since it is one of the parameters that influence course of the disease. PMID:27630848

  9. Role of Histomorphology and Chronic Inflammation Score in Chronic Dacryocystitis

    PubMed Central

    Chakrabarti, Sudipta; Banerjee, Manas; Pal, Debashis

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Diseases of lacrimal drainage system account for nearly 3% of visits to eye clinic. Chronic dacryocystitis is a frequently encountered disorder among these patients. Histomorphology of specimens obtained after Dacryocystorhinostomy (DCR) is a pertinent indicator of prognostic outcome. Aim The aim of the study was to evaluate histopathology of specimens obtained after DCR and to elucidate patterns and score of chronic inflammation encountered. Materials and Methods The study was conducted for a period of one year. Total of 50 patients who were clinically diagnosed as Chronic Dacryocystitis and underwent DCR were included. Following DCR, specimens of lacrimal sac, nasal mucous membrane and nasal bone were collected. Histopathological slides were examined for chronic inflammatory cell infiltration, fibrosis and capillary proliferation and were graded according to severity, in each specimen. A Chronic Inflammation Score (CIS) was recorded for each case. Results The average age of patients was 39.04±14.22 years and their age ranged between 13 and 62 years. There were 28 (56%) females and 22 (44%) males in the study group. The nasal bone did not reveal any abnormality in any case. The nasal mucous membrane showed mild chronic inflammatory cell infiltration in 46 (92%) cases and moderate degree in 4 (8%) patients. Chronic inflammation with granulation tissue formation was noted in lacrimal sacs of all patients. The CIS revealed that 14 (28%) cases belonged to “mild” group, 26 (52%) to “moderate” group and 10 (20%) to “severe” category. Conclusion The inclusion of CIS in histomorphological evaluation of DCR specimens is recommended since it is one of the parameters that influence course of the disease.

  10. THBS2 is a Potential Prognostic Biomarker in Colorectal Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Xue; Zhang, Lei; Li, Hui; Sun, WenJie; Zhang, Honghe; Lai, Maode

    2016-01-01

    Colorectal cancer is one of the most common leading causes of death worldwide. Prognostic at an early stage is a useful way that decrease and avoid mortality. Although remarkable progress has been made to investigate the underlying mechanism, the understanding of the complicated carcinogenesis process was enormously hindered by large-scale tumor heterogeneity. Here we proposed that the prognosis-related gene THBS2, responsible for cooperativity disorientation, probably contain untapped prognostic resource of colorectal cancer. We originally established Spearman correlation transition, Kaplan–Meier survival analysis and meta-analysis that combine public dataset and clinical samples to quantify the prognostic value of THBS2. THBS2 could be considered as a novel prognostic marker in colorectal cancer. PMID:27632935

  11. Accelerated Aging with Electrical Overstress and Prognostics for Power MOSFETs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saha, Sankalita; Celaya, Jose Ramon; Vashchenko, Vladislav; Mahiuddin, Shompa; Goebel, Kai F.

    2011-01-01

    Power electronics play an increasingly important role in energy applications as part of their power converter circuits. Understanding the behavior of these devices, especially their failure modes as they age with nominal usage or sudden fault development is critical in ensuring efficiency. In this paper, a prognostics based health management of power MOSFETs undergoing accelerated aging through electrical overstress at the gate area is presented. Details of the accelerated aging methodology, modeling of the degradation process of the device and prognostics algorithm for prediction of the future state of health of the device are presented. Experiments with multiple devices demonstrate the performance of the model and the prognostics algorithm as well as the scope of application. Index Terms Power MOSFET, accelerated aging, prognostics

  12. THBS2 is a Potential Prognostic Biomarker in Colorectal Cancer.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xue; Zhang, Lei; Li, Hui; Sun, WenJie; Zhang, Honghe; Lai, Maode

    2016-01-01

    Colorectal cancer is one of the most common leading causes of death worldwide. Prognostic at an early stage is a useful way that decrease and avoid mortality. Although remarkable progress has been made to investigate the underlying mechanism, the understanding of the complicated carcinogenesis process was enormously hindered by large-scale tumor heterogeneity. Here we proposed that the prognosis-related gene THBS2, responsible for cooperativity disorientation, probably contain untapped prognostic resource of colorectal cancer. We originally established Spearman correlation transition, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and meta-analysis that combine public dataset and clinical samples to quantify the prognostic value of THBS2. THBS2 could be considered as a novel prognostic marker in colorectal cancer. PMID:27632935

  13. The prognostic significance of postnatal growth in very low--birth weight infants.

    PubMed

    Hack, M; Merkatz, I R; Gordon, D; Jones, P K; Fanaroff, A A

    1982-07-15

    To examine the relative importance of intrauterine growth failure, extrauterine growth failure before or after term, and the prognostic significance of catch-up growth, 192 very low--birth weight infants (less than 1.5 kg) were followed prospectively to 8 months corrected age. One hundred fifty-four appropriate--for--gestational age (AGA) and 38 small--for--gestational age (SGA) infants were categorized into normal and subnormal (less than -2 SD) weight for age groups at term (40 weeks) and at 8 months corrected age. By term, 71 AGA infants had subnormal weight; 41 of these caught up by 8 months, and an additional 13 AGA infants failed to thrive between term and 8 months. Of the SGA infants, three caught up in weight by term, and an additional 16 caught up by 8 months. Significant correlates of subnormal weight included neonatal risk score, incidence of chronic disease, and extended hospitalization. The AGA and SGA infants who failed to thrive or failed to catch up in weight by 8 months had lower mean Bayley developmental quotients (p less than 0.005), smaller head circumferences (p less than 0.005), and a higher rate of neurosensory impairment (p less than 0.01) than the AGA infants with normal fetal and postnatal growth. Intrauterine and/or postnatal growth failure prior to term was not of sinister prognostic significance if catch up occurred thereafter.

  14. Antibody response to BK polyomavirus as a prognostic biomarker and potential therapeutic target in prostate cancer

    PubMed Central

    Keller, Xavier Etienne; Kardas, Piotr; Acevedo, Claudio; Sais, Giovanni; Poyet, Cédric; Banzola, Irina; Mortezavi, Ashkan; Seifert, Burkhardt; Sulser, Tullio

    2015-01-01

    Infectious agents, including the BK polyomavirus (BKPyV), have been proposed as important inflammatory pathogens in prostate cancer. Here, we evaluated whether the preoperative antibody response to BKPyV large T antigen (LTag) and viral capsid protein 1 (VP1) was associated with the risk of biochemical recurrence in 226 patients undergoing radical prostatectomy for primary prostate cancer. Essentially, the multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that preoperative seropositivity to BKPyV LTag significantly reduced the risk of biochemical recurrence, independently of established predictors of biochemical recurrence such as tumor stage, Gleason score and surgical margin status. The predictive accuracy of the regression model was denotatively increased by the inclusion of the BKPyV LTag serostatus. In contrast, the VP1 serostatus was of no prognostic value. Finally, the BKPyV LTag serostatus was associated with a peculiar cytokine gene expression profile upon assessment of the cellular immune response elicited by LTag. Taken together, our findings suggest that the BKPyV LTag serology may serve as a prognostic factor in prostate cancer. If validated in additional studies, this biomarker may allow for better treatment decisions after radical prostatectomy. Finally, the favorable outcome of LTag seropositive patients may provide a potential opportunity for novel therapeutic approaches targeting a viral antigen. PMID:25749042

  15. Validation and Recalibration of Two Multivariable Prognostic Models for Survival and Independence in Acute Stroke

    PubMed Central

    Teece, Lucy; Dennis, Martin S.; Roffe, Christine

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Various prognostic models have been developed for acute stroke, including one based on age and five binary variables (‘six simple variables’ model; SSVMod) and one based on age plus scores on the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSSMod). The aims of this study were to externally validate and recalibrate these models, and to compare their predictive ability in relation to both survival and independence. Methods Data from a large clinical trial of oxygen therapy (n = 8003) were used to determine the discrimination and calibration of the models, using C-statistics, calibration plots, and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics. Methods of recalibration in the large and logistic recalibration were used to update the models. Results For discrimination, both models functioned better for survival (C-statistics between .802 and .837) than for independence (C-statistics between .725 and .735). Both models showed slight shortcomings with regard to calibration, over-predicting survival and under-predicting independence; the NIHSSMod performed slightly better than the SSVMod. For the most part, there were only minor differences between ischaemic and haemorrhagic strokes. Logistic recalibration successfully updated the models for a clinical trial population. Conclusions Both prognostic models performed well overall in a clinical trial population. The choice between them is probably better based on clinical and practical considerations than on statistical considerations. PMID:27227988

  16. The Expression Level and Prognostic Value of Y-Box Binding Protein-1 in Rectal Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yu; Zhao, Ping-Wu; Feng, Gang; Xie, Gang; Wang, An-Qun; Yang, Yong-Hong; Wang, Dong; Du, Xiao-Bo

    2015-01-01

    The aims of this study were to simultaneously evaluate the expression of Y-box binding protein-1 (YB-1) in non-neoplastic rectal tissue and rectal cancer tissue, and to collect clinical follow-up data for individual patients. Additionally, we aimed to investigate the developmental functions and prognostic value of YB-1 in rectal cancer. We performed immunohistochemical studies to examine YB-1 expression in tissue samples from 80 patients with rectal cancer, 30 patients with rectal tubular adenoma, and 30 patients with rectitis. The mean YB-1 histological scores for rectal cancer, rectal tubular adenoma, and rectitis tissue specimens were 205.5, 164.3, and 137.7, respectively. Shorter disease-free and overall survival times were found in patients with rectal cancer who had higher YB-1 expression than in those with lower expression (38.2 months vs. 52.4 months, P = 0.013; and 44.4 months vs. 57.3 months, P = 0.008, respectively). Our results indicate that YB-1 expression is higher in rectal cancer tissue than in rectal tubular adenoma and rectitis tissue and that it may be an independent prognostic factor for rectal cancer. PMID:25790262

  17. Clinical and prognostic role of annexin A2 in multiple myeloma.

    PubMed

    Seckinger, Anja; Meissner, Tobias; Moreaux, Jérôme; Depeweg, Daniela; Hillengass, Jens; Hose, Katja; Rème, Thierry; Rösen-Wolff, Angela; Jauch, Anna; Schnettler, Reinhard; Ewerbeck, Volker; Goldschmidt, Hartmut; Klein, Bernard; Hose, Dirk

    2012-08-01

    Annexin A2 (ANXA2) promotes myeloma cell growth, reduces apoptosis in myeloma cell lines, and increases osteoclast formation. ANXA2 has been described in small cohorts of samples as expressed by myeloma cells and cells of the BM microenvironment. To investigate its clinical role, we assessed 1148 samples including independent cohorts of 332 and 701 CD138-purified myeloma cell samples from previously untreated patients together with clinical prognostic factors, chromosomal aberrations, and gene expression-based high-risk scores, along with expression of ANXA2 in whole BM samples, stromal cells, osteoblasts, osteoclasts, and BM sera. ANXA2 is expressed in all normal and malignant plasma cell samples. Higher ANXA2 expression in myeloma cells is associated with significantly inferior event-free and overall survival independently of conventional prognostic factors and is associated with gene expression-determined high risk and high proliferation. Within the BM, all cell populations, including osteoblasts, osteoclasts, and stromal cells, express ANXA2. ANXA2 expression is increased significantly in myelomatous versus normal BM serum. ANXA2 exemplifies an interesting class of targetable bone-remodeling factors expressed by normal and malignant plasma cells and the BM microenvironment that have a significant impact on survival of myeloma patients.

  18. Prognostic and diagnostic value of procalcitonin in the post-transplant setting after liver transplantation

    PubMed Central

    Stirkat, Falk; Croner, Roland S.; Vassos, Nikolaos; Raptis, Dimitrios; Yedibela, Süleyman; Hohenberger, Werner; Müller, Volker

    2016-01-01

    Introduction The aim of the study was to assess the diagnostic accuracy of procalcitonin (PCT) as a marker for complications and as a prognostic factor for mortality after liver transplantation. Material and methods Liver transplant patients between January 2007 and April 2011 were prospectively included in the study. Procalcitonin serum concentration was recorded before, 6 h after reperfusion and then daily. Postoperative clinical course was prospectively analyzed from admission to discharge. Main surgical data such as operating procedure, type of reperfusion, operating and ischemic times, high urgency (HU) status and MELD score at the time of transplantation were also recorded. Results Sixteen patients with initial PCT > 5 ng/ml suffered ≥ 1 complication (p = 0.03). However, there was no association between the level of the 1st peak PCT and the further postoperative course or the occurrence of complications. Patients in whom a 2nd PCT peak occurred had a significantly higher risk for a complicated course, for a complicated sepsis course and for mortality (p < 0.0001). Warm ischemic time over 58 min, operating time over 389 min and HU status were significant independent factors for a complicated postoperative course (p < 0.001, p < 0.001 and p = 0.03 respectively). Conclusions Based on our results, we believe that PCT course and the occurrence of a 2nd peak seem to possess important diagnostic and prognostic power in the post-transplant setting after liver transplantation. PMID:27186183

  19. Equations for Scoring Rules When Data Are Missing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    James, Mark

    2006-01-01

    A document presents equations for scoring rules in a diagnostic and/or prognostic artificial-intelligence software system of the rule-based inference-engine type. The equations define a set of metrics that characterize the evaluation of a rule when data required for the antecedence clause(s) of the rule are missing. The metrics include a primary measure denoted the rule completeness metric (RCM) plus a number of subsidiary measures that contribute to the RCM. The RCM is derived from an analysis of a rule with respect to its truth and a measure of the completeness of its input data. The derivation is such that the truth value of an antecedent is independent of the measure of its completeness. The RCM can be used to compare the degree of completeness of two or more rules with respect to a given set of data. Hence, the RCM can be used as a guide to choosing among rules during the rule-selection phase of operation of the artificial-intelligence system..

  20. Validation of the DECAF score to predict hospital mortality in acute exacerbations of COPD

    PubMed Central

    Echevarria, C; Steer, J; Heslop-Marshall, K; Stenton, SC; Hickey, PM; Hughes, R; Wijesinghe, M; Harrison, RN; Steen, N; Simpson, AJ; Gibson, GJ; Bourke, SC

    2016-01-01

    Background Hospitalisation due to acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) is common, and subsequent mortality high. The DECAF score was derived for accurate prediction of mortality and risk stratification to inform patient care. We aimed to validate the DECAF score, internally and externally, and to compare its performance to other predictive tools. Methods The study took place in the two hospitals within the derivation study (internal validation) and in four additional hospitals (external validation) between January 2012 and May 2014. Consecutive admissions were identified by screening admissions and searching coding records. Admission clinical data, including DECAF indices, and mortality were recorded. The prognostic value of DECAF and other scores were assessed by the area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curve. Results In the internal and external validation cohorts, 880 and 845 patients were recruited. Mean age was 73.1 (SD 10.3) years, 54.3% were female, and mean (SD) FEV1 45.5 (18.3) per cent predicted. Overall mortality was 7.7%. The DECAF AUROC curve for inhospital mortality was 0.83 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.87) in the internal cohort and 0.82 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.87) in the external cohort, and was superior to other prognostic scores for inhospital or 30-day mortality. Conclusions DECAF is a robust predictor of mortality, using indices routinely available on admission. Its generalisability is supported by consistent strong performance; it can identify low-risk patients (DECAF 0–1) potentially suitable for Hospital at Home or early supported discharge services, and high-risk patients (DECAF 3–6) for escalation planning or appropriate early palliation. Trial registration number UKCRN ID 14214. PMID:26769015

  1. Gastrointestinal sarcomas. Analysis of prognostic factors.

    PubMed Central

    McGrath, P C; Neifeld, J P; Lawrence, W; Kay, S; Horsley, J S; Parker, G A

    1987-01-01

    Clinical and pathologic data from 51 patients with primary sarcomas of the gastrointestinal tract treated from 1951 through 1984 were reviewed to determine clinical presentation, histologic features, treatment, and prognostic factors. The most common signs and symptoms were abdominal pain (62%), gastrointestinal bleeding (40%), and/or abdominal mass (38%). The primary site was stomach in 50%, small bowel in 30%, colorectum in 15%, and esophagus in 5%. Virtually all the sarcomas were leiomyosarcomas. Distribution was uniform among the three histologic grades; although 88% of Grade 1 tumors could be completely excised, only 35% of Grade 3 tumors could be completely resected. The 5-year survival rate was 75% for Grade 1 tumors, 16% for Grade 2 tumors, and 28% for Grade 3 tumors (p = 0.0013, Grade 1 vs. 2 and 3). Thirty of the 51 patients (59%) had curative resection with an operative morbidity rate of 24% and an operative mortality rate of 12%; at 5 years the disease-free survival rate was 58% and the overall survival rate was 63% (48% at 10 years). Eleven patients (42%) had recurrent disease develop at a median interval of 2 years after complete tumor excision. Twenty-one patients (41%) had partial excision or biopsy only of their tumors with an operative morbidity rate of 28%, o