Global Summary MGS TES Data and Mars-Gram Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C.; Johnson, D.; Parker, Nelson C. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2001) is an engineering-level Mars atmosphere model widely used for many Mars mission applications. From 0-80 km, it is based on NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM), while above 80 km it is based on University of Arizona Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model. Mars-GRAM 2001 and MGCM use surface topograph$ from Mars Global Surveyor Mars Orbiting Laser Altimeter (MOLA). Validation studies are described comparing Mars-GRAM with a global summary data set of Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) data. TES averages and standard deviations were assembled from binned TES data which covered surface to approx. 40 km, over more than a full Mars year (February, 1999 - June, 2001, just before start of a Mars global dust storm). TES data were binned in 10-by-10 degree latitude-longitude bins (i.e. 36 longitude bins by 19 latitude bins), 12 seasonal bins (based on 30 degree increments of Ls angle). Bin averages and standard deviations were assembled at 23 data levels (temperature at 21 pressure levels, plus surface temperature and surface pressure). Two time-of day bins were used: local time near 2 or 14 hours local time). Two dust optical depth bins wereused: infrared optical depth either less than or greater than 0.25 (which corresponds to visible optical depth either less than or greater than about 0.5). For interests in aerocapture and precision entry and landing, comparisons focused on atmospheric density. TES densities versus height were computed from TES temperature versus pressure, using assumptions of perfect gas law and hydrostatics. Mars-GRAM validation studies used density ratio (TES/Mars-GRAM) evaluated at data bin center points in space and time. Observed average TES/Mars-GRAM density ratios were generally 1+/-0.05, except at high altitudes (15-30 km, depending on season) and high latitudes (> 45 deg N), or at most altitudes in the southern hemisphere at Ls approx. 90 and 180deg). Compared to TES averages for a given latitude and season, TES data had average density standard deviation about the mean of approx. 65-10.5% (varying with height) for all data, or approx. 5-12%, depending on time of day and dust optical depth. Average standard deviation of TES/Mars-GRAM density ratio was 8.9% for local time 2 hours and 7.1% for local time 14 hours. Thus standard deviation of observed TES/Mars-GRAM density ratio, evaluated at matching positions and times, is about the same as the standard deviation of TES data about the TES mean value at a given position and season.

Physical and Chemical Processes in Turbulent Flames

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-23

positive aerodynamics stretch, into a multitude of wrinkled flamelets possessing either positive or negative stretch, such that the intensified...flame surface, such as the flame surface area ratio, build up this global measure. The turbulent flame surface is typically highly wrinkled and folded...consider a filtered/average location of the flame positions to represent a smooth surface. The information contained in the wrinkled surface if

Impact of fire on global land carbon, water, and energy budgets and climate during the 20th century through changing ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, F.; Lawrence, D. M.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Levis, S.

2016-12-01

Fire is an integral Earth system process and the primary form of terrestrial ecosystem disturbance on a global scale. Here we provide the first quantitative assessment and understanding on fire's impact on global land carbon, water, and energy budgets and climate through changing ecosystems. This is done by quantifying the difference between 20th century fire-on and fire-off simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2). Results show that fire decreases the net carbon gain of global terrestrial ecosystems by 1.0 Pg C/yr averaged across the 20th century, as a result of biomass and peat burning (1.9 Pg C/yr) partly offset by changing gross primary productivity, respiration, and land-use carbon loss (-0.9 Pg C/yr). In addition, fire's effect on global carbon budget intensifies with time. Fire significantly reduces land evapotranspiration (ET) by 600 km3/yr and increases runoff, but has limited impact on precipitation. The impact on ET and runoff is most clearly seen in the tropical savannas, African rainforest, and some boreal and Southern Asian forests mainly due to fire-induced reduction in the vegetation canopy. It also weakens both the significant upward trend in global land ET prior to the 1950s and the downward trend from 1950 to 1985 by 35%. Fire-induced changes in land ecosystems affects global energy budgets by significantly reducing latent heating and surface net radiation. Fire changes surface radiative budget dominantly by raising surface upward longwave radiation and net longwave radiation. It also increases the global land average surface air temperature (Tas) by 0.04°C, and significantly increases wind speed and decreases surface relative humidity. The fire-induced change in wind speed, Tas, and relative humidity implies a positive feedback loop between fire and climate. Moreover, fire-induced changes in land ecosystems contribute 20% of strong global land warming during 1910-1940, which provides a new mechanism for the early 20th century global land warming. The results emphasize the importance of fire disturbance in the Earth's carbon, water, and energy cycles and climate by changing terrestrial ecosystems.

Warmest Global Temperature on Record on This Week @NASA – January 20, 2017

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-01-20

NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced on Jan. 18, that global surface temperatures in 2016 were the warmest since modern record keeping began in 1880. The finding was based on results of independent analyses by both agencies. According to analysis by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York, 2016 is the third year in a row to set a new record for global average surface temperatures, further demonstrating a long-term warming trend. Also, Cygnus Cargo Module Arrives at KSC, Up in 30 Seconds, and Remembering Gene Cernan.

Global Intercomparison of 12 Land Surface Heat Flux Estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jimenez, C.; Prigent, C.; Mueller, B.; Seneviratne, S. I.; McCabe, M. F.; Wood, E. F.; Rossow, W. B.; Balsamo, G.; Betts, A. K.; Dirmeyer, P. A.;

Monthly mean forecast experiments with the GISS model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Atlas, R. M.; Kuo, E.

1976-01-01

The GISS general circulation model was used to compute global monthly mean forecasts for January 1973, 1974, and 1975 from initial conditions on the first day of each month and constant sea surface temperatures. Forecasts were evaluated in terms of global and hemispheric energetics, zonally averaged meridional and vertical profiles, forecast error statistics, and monthly mean synoptic fields. Although it generated a realistic mean meridional structure, the model did not adequately reproduce the observed interannual variations in the large scale monthly mean energetics and zonally averaged circulation. The monthly mean sea level pressure field was not predicted satisfactorily, but annual changes in the Icelandic low were simulated. The impact of temporal sea surface temperature variations on the forecasts was investigated by comparing two parallel forecasts for January 1974, one using climatological ocean temperatures and the other observed daily ocean temperatures. The use of daily updated sea surface temperatures produced no discernible beneficial effect.

Global surface-based cloud observation for ISCCP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

Visual observations of cloud cover are hindered at night due to inadequate illumination of the clouds. This usually leads to an underestimation of the average cloud cover at night, especially for the amounts of middle and high clouds, in climatologies on surface observations. The diurnal cycles of cloud amounts, if based on all the surface observations, are therefore in error, but they can be obtained more accurately if the nighttime observations are screened to select those made under sufficient moonlight. Ten years of nighttime weather observations from the northern hemisphere in December were classified according to the illuminance of moonlight or twilight on the cloud tops, and a threshold level of illuminance was determined, above which the clouds are apparently detected adequately. This threshold corresponds to light from a full moon at an elevation angle of 6 degrees or from a partial moon at higher elevation, or twilight from the sun less than 9 degrees below the horizon. It permits the use of about 38% of the observations made with the sun below the horizon. The computed diurnal cycles of total cloud cover are altered considerably when this moonlight criterion is imposed. Maximum cloud cover over much of the ocean is now found to be at night or in the morning, whereas computations obtained without benefit of the moonlight criterion, as in our published atlases, showed the time of maximum to be noon or early afternoon in many regions. Cloud cover is greater at night than during the day over the open oceans far from the continents, particularly in summer. However, near noon maxima are still evident in the coastal regions, so that the global annual average oceanic cloud cover is still slightly greater during the day than at night, by 0.3%. Over land, where daytime maxima are still obtained but with reduced amplitude, average cloud cover is 3.3% greater during the daytime. The diurnal cycles of total cloud cover we obtain are compared with those of ISCCP for a few regions; they are generally in better agreement if the moonlight criterion is imposed on the surface observations. Using the moonlight criterion, we have analyzed ten years (1982-1991) of surface weather observations over land and ocean, worldwide, for total cloud cover and for the frequency of occurrence of clear sky, fog and precipitation The global average cloud cover (average of day and night) is about 2% higher if we impose the moonlight criterion than if we use all observations. The difference is greater in winter than in summer, because of the fewer hours of darkness in the summer. The amplitude of the annual cycle of total cloud cover over the Arctic Ocean and at the South Pole is diminished by a few percent when the moonlight criterion is imposed. The average cloud cover for 1982-1991 is found to be 55% for northern hemisphere land, 53% for southern hemisphere land, 66% for northern hemisphere ocean, and 70% for southern hemisphere ocean, giving a global average of 64%. The global average for daytime is 64.6% for nighttime 63.3%.

The Impact of Sea Ice Concentration Accuracies on Climate Model Simulations with the GISS GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.; Rind, David; Healy, Richard J.; Martinson, Douglas G.; Zukor, Dorothy J. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model (GISS GCM) is used to examine the sensitivity of the simulated climate to sea ice concentration specifications in the type of simulation done in the Atmospheric Modeling Intercomparison Project (AMIP), with specified oceanic boundary conditions. Results show that sea ice concentration uncertainties of +/- 7% can affect simulated regional temperatures by more than 6 C, and biases in sea ice concentrations of +7% and -7% alter simulated annually averaged global surface air temperatures by -0.10 C and +0.17 C, respectively, over those in the control simulation. The resulting 0.27 C difference in simulated annual global surface air temperatures is reduced by a third, to 0.18 C, when considering instead biases of +4% and -4%. More broadly, least-squares fits through the temperature results of 17 simulations with ice concentration input changes ranging from increases of 50% versus the control simulation to decreases of 50% yield a yearly average global impact of 0.0107 C warming for every 1% ice concentration decrease, i.e., 1.07 C warming for the full +50% to -50% range. Regionally and on a monthly average basis, the differences can be far greater, especially in the polar regions, where wintertime contrasts between the +50% and -50% cases can exceed 30 C. However, few statistically significant effects are found outside the polar latitudes, and temperature effects over the non-polar oceans tend to be under 1 C, due in part to the specification of an unvarying annual cycle of sea surface temperatures. The +/- 7% and 14% results provide bounds on the impact (on GISS GCM simulations making use of satellite data) of satellite-derived ice concentration inaccuracies, +/- 7% being the current estimated average accuracy of satellite retrievals and +/- 4% being the anticipated improved average accuracy for upcoming satellite instruments. Results show that the impact on simulated temperatures of imposed ice concentration changes is least in summer, encouragingly the same season in which the satellite accuracies are thought to be worst. Hence the impact of satellite inaccuracies is probably less than the use of an annually averaged satellite inaccuracy would suggest.

Time-series modeling and prediction of global monthly absolute temperature for environmental decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Liming; Yang, Guixia; Van Ranst, Eric; Tang, Huajun

2013-03-01

A generalized, structural, time series modeling framework was developed to analyze the monthly records of absolute surface temperature, one of the most important environmental parameters, using a deterministicstochastic combined (DSC) approach. Although the development of the framework was based on the characterization of the variation patterns of a global dataset, the methodology could be applied to any monthly absolute temperature record. Deterministic processes were used to characterize the variation patterns of the global trend and the cyclic oscillations of the temperature signal, involving polynomial functions and the Fourier method, respectively, while stochastic processes were employed to account for any remaining patterns in the temperature signal, involving seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models. A prediction of the monthly global surface temperature during the second decade of the 21st century using the DSC model shows that the global temperature will likely continue to rise at twice the average rate of the past 150 years. The evaluation of prediction accuracy shows that DSC models perform systematically well against selected models of other authors, suggesting that DSC models, when coupled with other ecoenvironmental models, can be used as a supplemental tool for short-term (˜10-year) environmental planning and decision making.

Linkages Between Multiscale Global Sea Surface Temperature Change and Precipitation Variabilities in the US

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Weng, Heng-Yi

1999-01-01

A growing number of evidence indicates that there are coherent patterns of variability in sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly not only at interannual timescales, but also at decadal-to-inter-decadal timescale and beyond. The multi-scale variabilities of SST anomaly have shown great impacts on climate. In this work, we analyze multiple timescales contained in the globally averaged SST anomaly with and their possible relationship with the summer and winter rainfall in the United States over the past four decades.

Global Warming: If You Can't Stand the Heat

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baird, Stephen L.

2005-01-01

Global warming is the progressive, gradual rise of the earth's average surface temperature, thought to be caused in part by increased concentrations of "greenhouse" gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. According to the National Academy of Sciences, the Earth's temperature has risen by about one degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated…

Multi-Decadal Aerosol Variations from 1980 to 2009: A Perspective from Observations and a Global Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian; Diehl, T.; Tan, Q.; Prospero, J. M.; Kahn, R. A.; Remer, L. A.; Yu, H.; Sayer, A. M.; Bian, H.; Geogdzhayev, I. V.;

The effects of spatial heterogeneity and subsurface lateral transfer on evapotranspiration estimates in large scale Earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouholahnejad, E.; Fan, Y.; Kirchner, J. W.; Miralles, D. G.

2017-12-01

Most Earth system models (ESM) average over considerable sub-grid heterogeneity in land surface properties, and overlook subsurface lateral flow. This could potentially bias evapotranspiration (ET) estimates and has implications for future temperature predictions, since overestimations in ET imply greater latent heat fluxes and potential underestimation of dry and warm conditions in the context of climate change. Here we quantify the bias in evaporation estimates that may arise from the fact that ESMs average over considerable heterogeneity in surface properties, and also neglect lateral transfer of water across the heterogeneous landscapes at global scale. We use a Budyko framework to express ET as a function of P and PET to derive simple sub-grid closure relations that quantify how spatial heterogeneity and lateral transfer could affect average ET as seen from the atmosphere. We show that averaging over sub-grid heterogeneity in P and PET, as typical Earth system models do, leads to overestimation of average ET. Our analysis at global scale shows that the effects of sub-grid heterogeneity will be most pronounced in steep mountainous areas where the topographic gradient is high and where P is inversely correlated with PET across the landscape. In addition, we use the Total Water Storage (TWS) anomaly estimates from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) remote sensing product and assimilate it into the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) to correct for existing free drainage lower boundary condition in GLEAM and quantify whether, and how much, accounting for changes in terrestrial storage can improve the simulation of soil moisture and regional ET fluxes at global scale.

Surface Ozone Background in the United States: Canadian and Mexican Pollution Influences

EPA Science Inventory

We use a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) with 1° x 1° horizontal resolution to quantify the effects of anthropogenic emissions from Canada, Mexico, and outside North America on daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentrations in U.S.surface air.

Climate Impacts of CALIPSO-Guided Corrections to Black Carbon Aerosol Vertical Distributions in a Global Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovilakam, Mahesh; Mahajan, Salil; Saravanan, R.; Chang, Ping

2017-10-01

We alleviate the bias in the tropospheric vertical distribution of black carbon aerosols (BC) in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) using the Cloud-Aerosol and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO)-derived vertical profiles. A suite of sensitivity experiments are conducted with 1x, 5x, and 10x the present-day model estimated BC concentration climatology, with (corrected, CC) and without (uncorrected, UC) CALIPSO-corrected BC vertical distribution. The globally averaged top of the atmosphere radiative flux perturbation of CC experiments is ˜8-50% smaller compared to uncorrected (UC) BC experiments largely due to an increase in low-level clouds. The global average surface temperature increases, the global average precipitation decreases, and the ITCZ moves northward with the increase in BC radiative forcing, irrespective of the vertical distribution of BC. Further, tropical expansion metrics for the poleward extent of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley cell (HC) indicate that simulated HC expansion is not sensitive to existing model biases in BC vertical distribution.

Correcting surface solar radiation of two data assimilation systems against FLUXNET observations in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Lei; Lee, Xuhui; Liu, Shoudong

2013-09-01

Solar radiation at the Earth's surface is an important driver of meteorological and ecological processes. The objective of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of the reanalysis solar radiation produced by NARR (North American Regional Reanalysis) and MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) against the FLUXNET measurements in North America. We found that both assimilation systems systematically overestimated the surface solar radiation flux on the monthly and annual scale, with an average bias error of +37.2 Wm-2 for NARR and of +20.2 Wm-2 for MERRA. The bias errors were larger under cloudy skies than under clear skies. A postreanalysis algorithm consisting of empirical relationships between model bias, a clearness index, and site elevation was proposed to correct the model errors. Results show that the algorithm can remove the systematic bias errors for both FLUXNET calibration sites (sites used to establish the algorithm) and independent validation sites. After correction, the average annual mean bias errors were reduced to +1.3 Wm-2 for NARR and +2.7 Wm-2 for MERRA. Applying the correction algorithm to the global domain of MERRA brought the global mean surface incoming shortwave radiation down by 17.3 W m-2 to 175.5 W m-2. Under the constraint of the energy balance, other radiation and energy balance terms at the Earth's surface, estimated from independent global data products, also support the need for a downward adjustment of the MERRA surface solar radiation.

Impact of anthropogenic aerosols from global, East Asian, and non-East Asian sources on East Asian summer monsoon system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qiuyan; Wang, Zhili; Zhang, Hua

2017-01-01

The impact of the total effects due to anthropogenic aerosols from global, East Asian, and non-East Asian sources on East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) system is studied using an aerosol-climate online model BCC_AGCM2.0.1_CUACE/Aero. The results show that the summer mean net all-sky shortwave fluxes averaged over East Asian monsoon region (EAMR) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and surface reduce by 4.8 and 5.0 W m- 2, respectively, due to the increases of global aerosol emissions in 2000 relative to 1850. Changes in radiations and their resulting changes in heat and water transport and cloud fraction contribute together to the surface cooling over EAMR in summer. The increases in global anthropogenic aerosols lead to a decrease of 2.1 K in summer mean surface temperature and an increase of 0.4 hPa in summer mean surface pressure averaged over EAMR, respectively. It is shown that the changes in surface temperature and pressure are significantly larger over land than ocean, thus decreasing the contrast of land-sea surface temperature and pressure. This results in the marked anomalies of north and northeast winds over eastern and southern China and the surrounding oceans in summer, thereby weakening the EASM. The summer mean precipitation averaged over the EAMR reduces by 12%. The changes in non-East Asian aerosol emissions play a more important role in inducing the changes of local temperature and pressure, and thus significantly exacerbate the weakness of the EASM circulation due to local aerosol changes. The weakening of circulation due to both is comparable, and even the effect of non-local aerosols is larger in individual regions. The changes of local and non-local aerosols contribute comparably to the reductions in precipitation over oceans, whereas cause opposite changes over eastern China. Our results highlight the importance of aerosol changes outside East Asia in the impact of the changes of anthropogenic aerosols on EASM.

Comparisons of Radiative Flux Distributions from Satellite Observations and Global Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raschke, Ehrhard; Kinne, Stefan; Wild, Martin; Stackhouse, Paul; Rossow, Bill

2014-05-01

Radiative flux distributions at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and at the surface are compared between typical data from satellite observations and from global modeling. Averages of CERES, ISCCP and SRB data-products (for the same 4-year period) represent satellite observations. Central values of IPCC-4AR output (over a 12-year period) represent global modeling. At TOA, differences are dominated by differences for cloud-effects, which are extracted from the differences between all-sky and clear-sky radiative flux products. As satellite data are considered as TOA reference, these differences document the poor representation of clouds in global modeling, especially for low altitude clouds over oceans. At the surface the differences, caused by the different cloud treatment are overlaid by a general offset. Satellite products suggest a ca 15Wm-2 stronger surface net-imbalance (and with it stronger precipitation). Since surface products of satellite and modeling are based on simulations and many assumptions, this difference has remained an open issue. BSRN surface monitoring is too short and too sparsely distributed for clear answers to provide a reliable basis for validation.

Spatial correlations of interdecadal variation in global surface temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mann, Michael E.; Park, Jeffrey

1993-01-01

We have analyzed spatial correlation patterns of interdecadal global surface temperature variability from an empirical perspective. Using multitaper coherence estimates from 140-yr records, we find that correlations between hemispheres are significant at about 95 percent confidence for nonrandomness for most of the frequency band in the 0.06-0.24 cyc/yr range. Coherence estimates of pairs of 100-yr grid-point temperature data series near 5-yr period reveal teleconnection patterns consistent with known patterns of ENSO variability. Significant correlated variability is observed near 15 year period, with the dominant teleconnection pattern largely confined to the Northern Hemisphere. Peak-to-peak Delta-T is at about 0.5 deg, with simultaneous warming and cooling of discrete patches on the earth's surface. A global average of this pattern would largely cancel.

The global distribution and dynamics of surface soil moisture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McColl, Kaighin A.; Alemohammad, Seyed Hamed; Akbar, Ruzbeh; Konings, Alexandra G.; Yueh, Simon; Entekhabi, Dara

2017-01-01

Surface soil moisture has a direct impact on food security, human health and ecosystem function. It also plays a key role in the climate system, and the development and persistence of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods and heatwaves. However, sparse and uneven observations have made it difficult to quantify the global distribution and dynamics of surface soil moisture. Here we introduce a metric of soil moisture memory and use a full year of global observations from NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive mission to show that surface soil moisture--a storage believed to make up less than 0.001% of the global freshwater budget by volume, and equivalent to an, on average, 8-mm thin layer of water covering all land surfaces--plays a significant role in the water cycle. Specifically, we find that surface soil moisture retains a median 14% of precipitation falling on land after three days. Furthermore, the retained fraction of the surface soil moisture storage after three days is highest over arid regions, and in regions where drainage to groundwater storage is lowest. We conclude that lower groundwater storage in these regions is due not only to lower precipitation, but also to the complex partitioning of the water cycle by the surface soil moisture storage layer at the land surface.

The timescales of global surface-ocean connectivity.

PubMed

Jönsson, Bror F; Watson, James R

2016-04-19

Planktonic communities are shaped through a balance of local evolutionary adaptation and ecological succession driven in large part by migration. The timescales over which these processes operate are still largely unresolved. Here we use Lagrangian particle tracking and network theory to quantify the timescale over which surface currents connect different regions of the global ocean. We find that the fastest path between two patches--each randomly located anywhere in the surface ocean--is, on average, less than a decade. These results suggest that marine planktonic communities may keep pace with climate change--increasing temperatures, ocean acidification and changes in stratification over decadal timescales--through the advection of resilient types.

The timescales of global surface-ocean connectivity

PubMed Central

Jönsson, Bror F.; Watson, James R.

2016-01-01

Planktonic communities are shaped through a balance of local evolutionary adaptation and ecological succession driven in large part by migration. The timescales over which these processes operate are still largely unresolved. Here we use Lagrangian particle tracking and network theory to quantify the timescale over which surface currents connect different regions of the global ocean. We find that the fastest path between two patches—each randomly located anywhere in the surface ocean—is, on average, less than a decade. These results suggest that marine planktonic communities may keep pace with climate change—increasing temperatures, ocean acidification and changes in stratification over decadal timescales—through the advection of resilient types. PMID:27093522

Effect of cloud cover and surface type on earth's radiation budget derived from the first year of ERBE data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gibson, G. G.; Denn, F. M.; Young, D. F.; Harrison, E. F.; Minnis, P.; Barkstrom, B. R.

1990-01-01

One year of ERBE data is analyzed for variations in outgoing LW and absorbed solar flux. Differences in land and ocean radiation budgets as well as differences between clear-sky and total scenes, including clouds, are studied. The variation of monthly average radiative parameters is examined for February 1985 through January 1986 for selected study regions and on zonal and global scales. ERBE results show significant seasonal variations in both outgoing LW and absorbed SW flux, and a pronounced difference between oceanic and continental surfaces. The main factors determining cloud radiative forcing in a given region are solar insolation, cloud amount, cloud type, and surface properties. The strongest effects of clouds are found in the midlatitude storm tracks over the oceans. Over much of the globe, LW warming is balanced by SW cooling. The annual-global average net cloud forcing shows that clouds have a net cooling effect on the earth for the year.

Global lunar crust - Electrical conductivity and thermoelectric origin of remanent magnetism

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dyal, P.; Parkin, C. W.; Daily, W. D.

1977-01-01

An upper limit is placed on the average crustal conductivity from an investigation of toroidal (V x B) induction in the moon, using ten-minute data intervals of simultaneous lunar orbiting and surface magnetometer data. Crustal conductivity is determined as a function of crust thickness. For an average global crust thickness of about 80 km, the crust surface electrical conductivity is of the order of 1 hundred millionth mho/m. The toroidal-induction results lower the surface-conductivity limit obtained from poloidal-induction results by approximately four orders of magnitude. In addition, a thermoelectric (Seebeck effect) generator model is presented as a magnetic-field source for thermoremanent magnetization of the lunar crust during its solidification and cooling. Magnetic fields from 1000 to 10,000 gammas are calculated for various crater and crustal geometries. Solidified crustal material cooling through the iron Curie temperature in the presence of such ancient lunar fields could have received thermoremanent magnetization consistent with that measured in most returned lunar samples.

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) and Database for Mission Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; Duvall, Aleta; Johnson, D. L.

2003-01-01

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2001) is an engineering-level Mars atmosphere model widely used for many Mars mission applications. From 0-80 km, it is based on NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model, while above 80 km it is based on Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model. Mars-GRAM 2001 and MGCM use surface topography from Mars Global Surveyor Mars Orbiting Laser Altimeter. Validation studies are described comparing Mars-GRAM with Mars Global Surveyor Radio Science and Thermal Emission Spectrometer data. RS data from 2480 profiles were used, covering latitudes 75 deg S to 72 deg N, surface to approximately 40 km, for seasons ranging from areocentric longitude of Sun (Ls) = 70-160 deg and 265-310 deg. RS data spanned a range of local times, mostly 0-9 hours and 18-24 hours. For interests in aerocapture and precision landing, comparisons concentrated on atmospheric density. At a fixed height of 20 km, RS density varied by about a factor of 2.5 over ranges of latitudes and Ls values observed. Evaluated at matching positions and times, these figures show average RSMars-GRAM density ratios were generally 1+/-)0.05, except at heights above approximately 25 km and latitudes above approximately 50 deg N. Average standard deviation of RSMars-GRAM density ratio was 6%. TES data were used covering surface to approximately 40 km, over more than a full Mars year (February, 1999 - June, 2001, just before start of a Mars global dust storm). Depending on season, TES data covered latitudes 85 deg S to 85 deg N. Most TES data were concentrated near local times 2 hours and 14 hours. Observed average TES/Mars-GRAM density ratios were generally 1+/-0.05, except at high altitudes (15-30 km, depending on season) and high latitudes (greater than 45 deg N), or at most altitudes in the southern hemisphere at Ls approximately 90 and 180 deg. Compared to TES averages for a given latitude and season, TES data had average density standard deviation about the mean of approximately 2.5% for all data, or approximately 1-4%, depending on time of day and dust optical depth. Average standard deviation of TES/Mars-GRAM density ratio was 8.9% for local time 2 hours and 7.1% for local time 14 hours. Thus standard deviation of observed TES/Mars-GRAM density ratio, evaluated at matching positions and times, is about three times the standard deviation of TES data about the TES mean value at a given position and season.

Estimating Global Impervious Surface based on Social-economic Data and Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Z.; Zhang, K.; Xue, X.; Hong, Y.

2016-12-01

Impervious surface areas around the globe are expanding and significantly altering the surface energy balance, hydrology cycle and ecosystem services. Many studies have underlined the importance of impervious surface, r from hydrological modeling to contaminant transport monitoring and urban development estimation. Therefore accurate estimation of the global impervious surface is important for both physical and social sciences. Given the limited coverage of high spatial resolution imagery and ground survey, using satellite remote sensing and geospatial data to estimate global impervious areas is a practical approach. Based on the previous work of area-weighted imperviousness for north branch of the Chicago River provided by HDR, this study developed a method to determine the percentage of impervious surface using latest global land cover categories from multi-source satellite observations, population density and gross domestic product (GDP) data. Percent impervious surface at 30-meter resolution were mapped. We found that 1.33% of the CONUS (105,814 km2) and 0.475% of the land surface (640,370km2) are impervious surfaces. To test the utility and practicality of the proposed method, National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2011 percent developed imperviousness for the conterminous United States was used to evaluate our results. The average difference between the derived imperviousness from our method and the NLCD data across CONUS is 1.14%, while difference between our results and the NLCD data are within ±1% over 81.63% of the CONUS. The distribution of global impervious surface map indicates that impervious surfaces are primarily concentrated in China, India, Japan, USA and Europe where are highly populated and/or developed. This study proposes a straightforward way of mapping global imperviousness, which can provide useful information for hydrologic modeling and other applications.

Amplification of warming due to intensification of zonal circulation in the mid-latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, Genrikh; Ivanov, Nikolai; Kharlanenkova, Natalia; Kuzmina, Svetlana

2015-04-01

We propose a new index to evaluate the impact of atmospheric zonal transport oscillations on inter-annual variability and trends of average air temperature in mid-latitudes, Northern Hemisphere and globe. A simple model of mid-latitude channel "ocean-land-atmosphere" was used to produce the analytic relationship between the zonal circulation and the land-ocean temperature contrast which was used as a basis for index. An inverse relationship was found between indexes and average mid-latitude, hemisphere and global temperatures during the cold half of year and opposite one in summer. These relationships keep under 400 mb height. In winter relationship describes up to 70, 50 and 40 % of surface air temperature inter-annual variability of these averages, respectively. The contribution of zonal circulation to the increase in the average surface air temperature during warming period 1969-2008 reaches 75% in the mid-latitudes and 40% in the Northern Hemisphere. Proposed mid-latitude index correlates negatively with surface air temperature in the Arctic except summer. ECHAM4 projections with the A1B scenario show that increase of zonal circulation defines more than 74% of the warming in the Northern Hemisphere for 2001-2100. Our analysis confirms that the proposed index is an effective indicator of the climate change caused by variations of the zonal circulation that arise due to anthropogenic and/or natural global forcing mechanisms.

Impact of fire on global land surface air temperature and energy budget for the 20th century due to changes within ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Fang; Lawrence, David M.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben

2017-04-01

Fire is a global phenomenon and tightly interacts with the biosphere and climate. This study provides the first quantitative assessment and understanding of fire’s influence on the global annual land surface air temperature and energy budget through its impact on terrestrial ecosystems. Fire impacts are quantified by comparing fire-on and fire-off simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Results show that, for the 20th century average, fire-induced changes in terrestrial ecosystems significantly increase global land annual mean surface air temperature by 0.18 °C, decrease surface net radiation and latent heat flux by 1.08 W m-2 and 0.99 W m-2, respectively, and have limited influence on sensible heat flux (-0.11 W m-2) and ground heat flux (+0.02 W m-2). Fire impacts are most clearly seen in the tropical savannas. Our analyses suggest that fire increases surface air temperature predominantly by reducing latent heat flux, mainly due to fire-induced damage to the vegetation canopy, and decreases net radiation primarily because fire-induced surface warming significantly increases upward surface longwave radiation. This study provides an integrated estimate of fire and induced changes in ecosystems, climate, and energy budget at a global scale, and emphasizes the importance of a consistent and integrated understanding of fire effects.

Normal age-related brain morphometric changes: nonuniformity across cortical thickness, surface area and gray matter volume?

PubMed

Lemaitre, Herve; Goldman, Aaron L; Sambataro, Fabio; Verchinski, Beth A; Meyer-Lindenberg, Andreas; Weinberger, Daniel R; Mattay, Venkata S

2012-03-01

Normal aging is accompanied by global as well as regional structural changes. While these age-related changes in gray matter volume have been extensively studied, less has been done using newer morphological indexes, such as cortical thickness and surface area. To this end, we analyzed structural images of 216 healthy volunteers, ranging from 18 to 87 years of age, using a surface-based automated parcellation approach. Linear regressions of age revealed a concomitant global age-related reduction in cortical thickness, surface area and volume. Cortical thickness and volume collectively confirmed the vulnerability of the prefrontal cortex, whereas in other cortical regions, such as in the parietal cortex, thickness was the only measure sensitive to the pronounced age-related atrophy. No cortical regions showed more surface area reduction than the global average. The distinction between these morphological measures may provide valuable information to dissect age-related structural changes of the brain, with each of these indexes probably reflecting specific histological changes occurring during aging. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Global lake response to the recent warming hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winslow, Luke A.; Leach, Taylor H.; Rose, Kevin C.

2018-05-01

Understanding temporal variability in lake warming rates over decadal scales is important for understanding observed change in aquatic systems. We analyzed a global dataset of lake surface water temperature observations (1985‑2009) to examine how lake temperatures responded to a recent global air temperature warming hiatus (1998‑2012). Prior to the hiatus (1985‑1998), surface water temperatures significantly increased at an average rate of 0.532 °C decade‑1 (±0.214). In contrast, water temperatures did not change significantly during the hiatus (average rate ‑0.087 °C decade‑1 ±0.223). Overall, 83% of lakes in our dataset (129 of 155) had faster warming rates during the pre-hiatus period than during the hiatus period. These results demonstrate that lakes have exhibited decadal-scale variability in warming rates coherent with global air temperatures and represent an independent line of evidence for the recent warming hiatus. Our analyses provide evidence that lakes are sentinels of broader climatological processes and indicate that warming rates based on datasets where a large proportion of observations were collected during the hiatus period may underestimate longer-term trends.

Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change.

PubMed

Gregory, J M; Huybrechts, P

2006-07-15

Accurate simulation of ice-sheet surface mass balance requires higher spatial resolution than is afforded by typical atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), owing, in particular, to the need to resolve the narrow and steep margins where the majority of precipitation and ablation occurs. We have developed a method for calculating mass-balance changes by combining ice-sheet average time-series from AOGCM projections for future centuries, both with information from high-resolution climate models run for short periods and with a 20km ice-sheet mass-balance model. Antarctica contributes negatively to sea level on account of increased accumulation, while Greenland contributes positively because ablation increases more rapidly. The uncertainty in the results is about 20% for Antarctica and 35% for Greenland. Changes in ice-sheet topography and dynamics are not included, but we discuss their possible effects. For an annual- and area-average warming exceeding 4.5+/-0.9K in Greenland and 3.1+/-0.8K in the global average, the net surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet becomes negative, in which case it is likely that the ice sheet would eventually be eliminated, raising global-average sea level by 7m.

Earth radiation budget measurements from satellites and their interpretation for climate modeling and studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vonderhaar, T. H.; Stephens, G. L.; Campbell, G. G.

1980-01-01

The annual and seasonal averaged Earth atmosphere radiation budgets derived from the most complete set of satellite observations available are presented. The budgets were derived from a composite of 48 monthly mean radiation budget maps. Annually and seasonally averaged radiation budgets are presented as global averages and zonal averages. The geographic distribution of the various radiation budget quantities is described. The annual cycle of the radiation budget was analyzed and the annual variability of net flux was shown to be largely dominated by the regular semi and annual cycles forced by external Earth-Sun geometry variations. Radiative transfer calculations were compared to the observed budget quantities and surface budgets were additionally computed with particular emphasis on discrepancies that exist between the present computations and previous surface budget estimates.

Inter-annual Variability in Global Suspended Particulate Inorganic Carbon Inventory Using Space-based Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopkins, J.; Balch, W. M.; Henson, S.; Poulton, A. J.; Drapeau, D.; Bowler, B.; Lubelczyk, L.

2016-02-01

Coccolithophores, the single celled phytoplankton that produce an outer covering of calcium carbonate coccoliths, are considered to be the greatest contributors to the global oceanic particulate inorganic carbon (PIC) pool. The reflective coccoliths scatter light back out from the ocean surface, enabling PIC concentration to be quantitatively estimated from ocean color satellites. Here we use datasets of AQUA MODIS PIC concentration from 2003-2014 (using the recently-revised PIC algorithm), as well as statistics on coccolithophore vertical distribution derived from cruises throughout the world ocean, to estimate the average global (surface and integrated) PIC standing stock and its associated inter-annual variability. In addition, we divide the global ocean into Longhurst biogeochemical provinces, update the PIC biomass statistics and identify those regions that have the greatest inter-annual variability and thus may exert the greatest influence on global PIC standing stock and the alkalinity pump.

Climate responses to SATIRE and SIM-based spectral solar forcing in a 3D atmosphere-ocean coupled GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Guoyong; Cahalan, Robert F.; Rind, David; Jonas, Jeffrey; Pilewskie, Peter; Wu, Dong L.; Krivova, Natalie A.

2017-03-01

We apply two reconstructed spectral solar forcing scenarios, one SIM (Spectral Irradiance Monitor) based, the other the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction) modeled, as inputs to the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) GCMAM (Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model) to examine climate responses on decadal to centennial time scales, focusing on quantifying the difference of climate response between the two solar forcing scenarios. We run the GCMAM for about 400 years with present day trace gas and aerosol for the two solar forcing inputs. We find that the SIM-based solar forcing induces much larger long-term response and 11-year variation in global averaged stratospheric temperature and column ozone. We find significant decreasing trends of planetary albedo for both forcing scenarios in the 400-year model runs. However the mechanisms for the decrease are very different. For SATIRE solar forcing, the decreasing trend of planetary albedo is associated with changes in cloud cover. For SIM-based solar forcing, without significant change in cloud cover on centennial and longer time scales, the apparent decreasing trend of planetary albedo is mainly due to out-of-phase variation in shortwave radiative forcing proxy (downwelling flux for wavelength >330 nm) and total solar irradiance (TSI). From the Maunder Minimum to present, global averaged annual mean surface air temperature has a response of 0.1 °C to SATIRE solar forcing compared to 0.04 °C to SIM-based solar forcing. For 11-year solar cycle, the global surface air temperature response has 3-year lagged response to either forcing scenario. The global surface air 11-year temperature response to SATIRE forcing is about 0.12 °C, similar to recent multi-model estimates, and comparable to the observational-based evidence. However, the global surface air temperature response to 11-year SIM-based solar forcing is insignificant and inconsistent with observation-based evidence.

Geophysical Global Modeling for Extreme Crop Production Using Photosynthesis Models Coupled to Ocean SST Dipoles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaneko, D.

2016-12-01

Climate change appears to have manifested itself along with abnormal meteorological disasters. Instability caused by drought and flood disasters is producing poor harvests because of poor photosynthesis and pollination. Fluctuations of extreme phenomena are increasing rapidly because amplitudes of change are much greater than average trends. A fundamental cause of these phenomena derives from increased stored energy inside ocean waters. Geophysical and biochemical modeling of crop production can elucidate complex mechanisms under seasonal climate anomalies. The models have progressed through their combination with global climate reanalysis, environmental satellite data, and harvest data on the ground. This study examined adaptation of crop production to advancing abnormal phenomena related to global climate change. Global environmental surface conditions, i.e., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. Basic streams of the concepts of modeling rely upon continental energy flow and carbon circulation among crop vegetation, land surface atmosphere combining energy advection from ocean surface anomalies. Global environmental surface conditions, e.g., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. The method of validating the modeling relies upon carbon partitioning in biomass and grains through carbon flow by photosynthesis using carbon dioxide unit in photosynthesis. Results of computations done for this study show global distributions of actual evaporation, stomata opening, and photosynthesis, presenting mechanisms related to advection effects from SST anomalies in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans on global and continental croplands. For North America, climate effects appear clearly in severe atmospheric phenomena, which have caused drought and forest fires through seasonal advection thermal effects on potential evaporation by winds blowing eastward over California, the Grand Canyon, Monument Valley, and into the Great Plains. These coupled SST photosynthesis models constitute an advanced approach for crop modeling in the era of recent new climate.

Recent Global Warming As Depicted by AIRS, GISSTEMP, and MERRA-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susskind, J.; Iredell, L. F.; Lee, J. N.

2017-12-01

We observed anomalously warm global mean surface temperatures since 2015. The year 2016 represents the warmest annual mean surface skin and surface air temperatures in the AIRS observational period, September 2002 through August 2017. Additionally, AIRS monthly mean surface skin temperature, from January 2016 through September 2016, and November 2016, were the warmest observed for each month of the year. Continuing this trend, the AIRS global surface temperatures of 2017 February and April show the second greatest positive anomalies from average. This recent warming is particularly significant over the Arctic where the snow and sea ice melt is closely tied to the spring and summer surface temperatures. In this paper, we show the global distribution of surface temperature anomalies as observed by AIRS over the period September 2002 through August 2017 and compare them with those from the GISSTEMP and MERRA-2 surface temperatures. The spatial patterns of warm and cold anomalies for a given month show reasonably good agreement in all three data set. AIRS anomalies, which do not have the benefit of in-situ measurements, are in almost perfect agreement with those of MERRA-2, which does use in-situ surface measurements. GISSTEMP anomaly patterns for the most part look similar to those of AIRS and MERRA-2, but are more spread out spatially, and consequently are also weaker.

Human-experienced temperature changes exceed global average climate changes for all income groups

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsiang, S. M.; Parshall, L.

2009-12-01

Global climate change alters local climates everywhere. Many climate change impacts, such as those affecting health, agriculture and labor productivity, depend on these local climatic changes, not global mean change. Traditional, spatially averaged climate change estimates are strongly influenced by the response of icecaps and oceans, providing limited information on human-experienced climatic changes. If used improperly by decision-makers, these estimates distort estimated costs of climate change. We overlay the IPCC’s 20 GCM simulations on the global population distribution to estimate local climatic changes experienced by the world population in the 21st century. The A1B scenario leads to a well-known rise in global average surface temperature of +2.0°C between the periods 2011-2030 and 2080-2099. Projected on the global population distribution in 2000, the median human will experience an annual average rise of +2.3°C (4.1°F) and the average human will experience a rise of +2.4°C (4.3°F). Less than 1% of the population will experience changes smaller than +1.0°C (1.8°F), while 25% and 10% of the population will experience changes greater than +2.9°C (5.2°F) and +3.5°C (6.2°F) respectively. 67% of the world population experiences temperature changes greater than the area-weighted average change of +2.0°C (3.6°F). Using two approaches to characterize the spatial distribution of income, we show that the wealthiest, middle and poorest thirds of the global population experience similar changes, with no group dominating the global average. Calculations for precipitation indicate that there is little change in average precipitation, but redistributions of precipitation occur in all income groups. These results suggest that economists and policy-makers using spatially averaged estimates of climate change to approximate local changes will systematically and significantly underestimate the impacts of climate change on the 21st century population. Top: The distribution of temperature changes experienced by the world population between 2011-2030 and 2080-2099. Lower 3 panels: Temperatures experienced 2011-2030 (dashed, circle = mean) and 2080-2099 (solid, cross = mean) by income tercile. The poor do not experience larger changes than the wealthy. However, the poor begin the 21st century at higher temperatures.

A global low order spectral model designed for climate sensitivity studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hanna, A. F.; Stevens, D. E.

1984-01-01

A two level, global, spectral model using pressure as a vertical coordinate is developed. The system of equations describing the model is nonlinear and quasi-geostrophic. A moisture budget is calculated in the lower layer only with moist convective adjustment between the two layers. The mechanical forcing of topography is introduced as a lower boundary vertical velocity. Solar forcing is specified assuming a daily mean zenith angle. On land and sea ice surfaces a steady state thermal energy equation is solved to calculate the surface temperature. Over the oceans the sea surface temperatures are prescribed from the climatological average of January. The model is integrated to simulate the January climate.

Large-scale Modeling of Nitrous Oxide Production: Issues of Representing Spatial Heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morris, C. K.; Knighton, J.

2017-12-01

Nitrous oxide is produced from the biological processes of nitrification and denitrification in terrestrial environments and contributes to the greenhouse effect that warms Earth's climate. Large scale modeling can be used to determine how global rate of nitrous oxide production and consumption will shift under future climates. However, accurate modeling of nitrification and denitrification is made difficult by highly parameterized, nonlinear equations. Here we show that the representation of spatial heterogeneity in inputs, specifically soil moisture, causes inaccuracies in estimating the average nitrous oxide production in soils. We demonstrate that when soil moisture is averaged from a spatially heterogeneous surface, net nitrous oxide production is under predicted. We apply this general result in a test of a widely-used global land surface model, the Community Land Model v4.5. The challenges presented by nonlinear controls on nitrous oxide are highlighted here to provide a wider context to the problem of extraordinary denitrification losses in CLM. We hope that these findings will inform future researchers on the possibilities for model improvement of the global nitrogen cycle.

Terrestrial basking sea turtles are responding to spatio-temporal sea surface temperature patterns.

PubMed

Van Houtan, Kyle S; Halley, John M; Marks, Wendy

2015-01-01

Naturalists as early as Darwin observed terrestrial basking in green turtles (Chelonia mydas), but the distribution and environmental influences of this behaviour are poorly understood. Here, we examined 6 years of daily basking surveys in Hawaii and compared them with the phenology of local sea surface temperatures (SST). Data and models indicated basking peaks when SST is coolest, and we found this timeline consistent with bone stress markings. Next, we assessed the decadal SST profiles for the 11 global green turtle populations. Basking generally occurs when winter SST falls below 23°C. From 1990 to 2014, the SST for these populations warmed an average 0.04°C yr(-1) (range 0.01-0.09°C yr(-1)); roughly three times the observed global average over this period. Owing to projected future warming at basking sites, we estimated terrestrial basking in green turtles may cease globally by 2100. To predict and manage for future climate change, we encourage a more detailed understanding for how climate influences organismal biology. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Terrestrial basking sea turtles are responding to spatio-temporal sea surface temperature patterns

PubMed Central

Van Houtan, Kyle S.; Halley, John M.; Marks, Wendy

2015-01-01

Naturalists as early as Darwin observed terrestrial basking in green turtles (Chelonia mydas), but the distribution and environmental influences of this behaviour are poorly understood. Here, we examined 6 years of daily basking surveys in Hawaii and compared them with the phenology of local sea surface temperatures (SST). Data and models indicated basking peaks when SST is coolest, and we found this timeline consistent with bone stress markings. Next, we assessed the decadal SST profiles for the 11 global green turtle populations. Basking generally occurs when winter SST falls below 23°C. From 1990 to 2014, the SST for these populations warmed an average 0.04°C yr−1 (range 0.01–0.09°C yr−1); roughly three times the observed global average over this period. Owing to projected future warming at basking sites, we estimated terrestrial basking in green turtles may cease globally by 2100. To predict and manage for future climate change, we encourage a more detailed understanding for how climate influences organismal biology. PMID:25589483

Characterizing extrasolar terrestrial planets with reflected, emitted and transmitted spectra.

PubMed

Tinetti, Giovanna

2006-12-01

NASA and ESA are planning missions to directly detect and characterize terrestrial planets outside our solar system (nominally NASA-Terrestrial Planet Finder and ESA-DARWIN missions). These missions will provide our first opportunity to spectroscopically study the global characteristics of those planets, and search for signs of habitability and life. We have used spatially and spectrally-resolved models to explore the observational sensitivity to changes in atmospheric and surface properties, and the detectability of surface biosignatures, in the globally averaged spectra and light-curves of the Earth. Atmospheric signatures of Earth-size exoplanets might be detected, in a near future, by stellar occultation as well. Detectability depends on planet's size, atmospheric composition, cloud cover and stellar type. According to our simulations, Earth's land vegetation signature (red-edge) is potentially visible in the disk-averaged spectra, even with cloud cover, and when the signal is averaged over the daily time scale. Marine vegetation is far more difficult to detect. We explored also the detectability of an exo-vegetation responsible for producing a signature that is red-shifted with respect to the Earth vegetation's one.

Evaluating the Regional Impact of Aircraft Emissions on Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Khodayari, A.

2017-12-01

Unlike other transportation sectors where pollutant emissions usually occur only near the Earth's surface, aviation emissions happen primarily at altitudes of 8-12 km above the surface, impacting the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere (UTLS). At these altitudes, the pollutants can contribute significantly to greenhouse gas (GHGs) concentration and to the formation of secondary aerosols, which can have an impact on climate change. This study examines the regional effects on climate forcing resulting from aviation emissions. Most previous studies have focused on aviation effects on climate using globally-averaged metric values, which do not give information about the spatial variability of the effects. While aviation emissions have significant spatial variability in the sign and magnitude of response, the strength of regional effects is hidden due to the global averaging of climate change effects. In this study, the chemistry-climate Community Atmosphere Model (CAM-chem5) is used in analyses to examine the regional climate effects based on 4 different latitude bands (90oS-28oS, 28oS-28oN, 28oN-60oN, 60oN-90oN) and 3 regions (contiguous United States, Europe and East Asia). The most regionally important aviation emissions are short-lived species, such as black carbon (BC) and sulfates, emitted from aircraft directly, and O3-short induced by NOx emission indirectly. The regionality of these short-lived impacts are explored and compared to the globally-averaged effects. The results indicate that BC and sulfates have more regionality than O3. The radiative forcings for short-lived agents over the United States, Europe and East Asia are around 2-4 times of their corresponding global values. The results also suggest that the climate forcings will be the most underestimated over the United States when using globally-averaged values without considering regional heterogeneity.

An improved empirical dynamic control system model of global mean sea level rise and surface temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qing; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tkalich, Pavel; Chen, Ge

2018-04-01

Having great impacts on human lives, global warming and associated sea level rise are believed to be strongly linked to anthropogenic causes. Statistical approach offers a simple and yet conceptually verifiable combination of remotely connected climate variables and indices, including sea level and surface temperature. We propose an improved statistical reconstruction model based on the empirical dynamic control system by taking into account the climate variability and deriving parameters from Monte Carlo cross-validation random experiments. For the historic data from 1880 to 2001, we yielded higher correlation results compared to those from other dynamic empirical models. The averaged root mean square errors are reduced in both reconstructed fields, namely, the global mean surface temperature (by 24-37%) and the global mean sea level (by 5-25%). Our model is also more robust as it notably diminished the unstable problem associated with varying initial values. Such results suggest that the model not only enhances significantly the global mean reconstructions of temperature and sea level but also may have a potential to improve future projections.

AQUARIUS: A Passive/Active Microwave Sensor to Monitor Sea Surface Salinity Globally from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

LeVine, David; Lagerloef, Gary S. E.; Colomb, F. Raul; Chao, Yi

2004-01-01

Salinity is important for understanding ocean dynamics, energy exchange with the atmosphere and the global water cycle. Existing data is limited and much of the ocean has never even been sampled. Sea surface salinity can be measured remotely by satellite and a three year mission for this purpose called AquariudSAC-D has recently been selected by NASA's Earth System Science Pathfinder (ESSP) program. The objective is to map the salinity field globally with a spatial resolution of 100 km and a monthly average accuracy of 0.2 psu. The mission, scheduled for launch in 2008, is a partnership of the United States National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA) and the Argentine Comision National de Actividades Epaciales (CONAE).

Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, Mark; Cowtan, Kevin; Millar, Richard J.

2018-05-01

The Paris Agreement on climate change aims to limit ‘global average temperature’ rise to ‘well below 2 °C’ but reported temperature depends on choices about how to blend air and water temperature data, handle changes in sea ice and account for regions with missing data. Here we use CMIP5 climate model simulations to estimate how these choices affect reported warming and carbon budgets consistent with the Paris Agreement. By the 2090s, under a low-emissions scenario, modelled global near-surface air temperature rise is 15% higher (5%–95% range 6%–21%) than that estimated by an approach similar to the HadCRUT4 observational record. The difference reduces to 8% with global data coverage, or 4% with additional removal of a bias associated with changing sea-ice cover. Comparison of observational datasets with different data sources or infilling techniques supports our model results regarding incomplete coverage. From high-emission simulations, we find that a HadCRUT4 like definition means higher carbon budgets and later exceedance of temperature thresholds, relative to global near-surface air temperature. 2 °C warming is delayed by seven years on average, to 2048 (2035–2060), and CO2 emissions budget for a >50% chance of <2 °C warming increases by 67 GtC (246 GtCO2).

Seasat scatterometer versus scanning multichannel microwave radiometer wind speeds: A comparison on a global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boutin, J.; Etcheto, J.

1990-12-01

The wind speeds obtained from the Seasat A scatterometer system (SASS) and scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) using two different algorithms were compared on a global scale. The temperature dependence of the sea surface emissivity was shown to be incorrectly modelled. After correcting this effect, regional differences up to ± 3 m s-1 are still observed between both instruments, even though they balance in global averaging, resulting in no bias between the global data sets. Validation experiments of satellite wind speeds should take into account this possibility of regional biases and insure the validity of the measurements everywhere in the global ocean.

Microplastic distribution in global marine surface waters: results of an extensive citizen science study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrows, A.; Petersen, C.

2017-12-01

Plastic is a major pollutant throughout the world. The majority of the 322 million tons produced annually is used for single-use packaging. What makes plastic an attractive packaging material: cheap, light-weight and durable are also the features that help make it a common and persistent pollutant. There is a growing body of research on microplastic, particles less than 5 mm in size. Microfibers are the most common microplastic in the marine environment. Global estimates of marine microplastic surface concentrations are based on relatively small sample sizes when compared to the vast geographic scale of the ocean. Microplastic residence time and movement along the coast and sea surface outside of the gyres is still not well researched. This five-year project utilized global citizen scientists to collect 1,628 1-liter surface grab samples in every major ocean. The Artic and Southern oceans contained highest average of particles per liter of surface water. Open ocean samples (further than 12 nm from land, n = 686) contained a higher particle average (17 pieces L-1) than coastal samples (n = 723) 6 pieces L-1. Particles were predominantly 100 µm- 1.5 mm in length (77%), smaller than what has been captured in the majority of surface studies. Utilization of citizen scientists to collect data both in fairly accessible regions of the world as well as from areas hard to reach and therefore under sampled, provides us with a wider perspective of global microplastics occurrence. Our findings confirm global microplastic accumulation zone model predictions. The open ocean and poles have sequestered and trapped plastic for over half a century, and show that not only plastics, but anthropogenic fibers are polluting the environment. Continuing to fill knowledge gaps on microplastic shape, size and color in remote ocean areas will drive more accurate oceanographic models of plastic accumulation zones. Incorporation of smaller-sized particles in these models, which has previously been lacking, will help to better understand potential fate and transformation microplastic and anthropogenic particles in the marine environment.

Mars-Gram Validation with Mars Global Surveyor Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; Johnson, D.; Parker, Nelson C. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2001) is an engineering-level Mars atmosphere model widely used for many b4ars mission applications. From 0-80 km, it is based on NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM), while above 80 km it is based on University of Arizona Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model. Mars-GRAM 2001 and MGCM use surface topography from Mars Global Surveyor Mars Orbiting Laser Altimeter (MOLA). Validation studies are described comparing Mars-GRAM with Mars Global Surveyor Radio Science (RS) and Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) data. RS data from 2480 profiles were used, covering latitudes 75deg S to 72deg N, surface to approx. 40 km, for seasons ranging from areocentric longitude of Sun (Ls) = 70-160deg and 265-310deg. RS data spanned a range of local times, mostly 0-9 hours and 18-24 hours. For interests in aerocapture and precision landing, comparisons concentrated on atmospheric density. At a fixed height of 20 km, measured RS density varied by about a factor of 2.5 over the range of latitudes and Ls values observed. Evaluated at matching positions and times, average RS/Mars-GRAM density ratios were generally lf0.05, except at heights above approx. 25 km and latitudes above approx.50deg N. Average standard deviation of RS/Mars-GRAM density ratio was 6%. TES data were used covering surface to approx. 40 km, over more than a full Mars year (February, 1999 - June, 2001, just before start of Mars global dust storm). Depending on season, TES data covered latitudes 85deg S to 85deg N. Most TES data were concentrated near local times 2 hours and 14 hours. Observed average TES/Mars-GRAM density ratios were generally 1+/-0.05, except at high altitudes (15-30 km, depending on season) and high latitudes (> 45deg N), or at most altitudes in the southern hemisphere at Ls approx. 90 and 180deg). Compared to TES averages for a given latitude and season, TES data had average density standard deviation about the mean of approx. 6.5-10.5% (varying with height) for all data, or approx. 5- 12%, depending on time of day and dust optical depth. Average standard deviation of TES/Mars-GRAM density ratio was 8.9% for local time 2 hours and 7.1% for 1o:al time 14 hours. Thus standard deviation of observed TES/Mars-GRAM density ratio, evaluated at matching positions and times, is about the same as the standard deviation of TES data about the TES mean value at a given position and season.

Tracking the complete revolution of Surface Westerlies over Northern Hemisphere using radionuclides emitted from Fukushima.

PubMed

Hernández-Ceballos, M A; Hong, G H; Lozano, R L; Kim, Y I; Lee, H M; Kim, S H; Yeh, S-W; Bolívar, J P; Baskaran, M

2012-11-01

Massive amounts of anthropogenic radionuclides were released from the nuclear reactors located in Fukushima (northeastern Japan) between 12 and 16 March 2011 following the earthquake and tsunami. Ground level air radioactivity was monitored around the globe immediately after the Fukushima accident. This global effort provided a unique opportunity to trace the surface air mass movement at different sites in the Northern Hemisphere. Based on surface air radioactivity measurements around the globe and the air mass backward trajectory analysis of the Fukushima radioactive plume at various places in the Northern Hemisphere by employing the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model, we show for the first time, that the uninterrupted complete revolution of the mid-latitude Surface Westerlies took place in less than 21 days, with an average zonal velocity of>60 km/h. The position and circulation time scale of Surface Westerlies are of wide interest to a large number of global researchers including meteorologists, atmospheric researchers and global climate modellers. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonal water chemistry variability in the Pangani River basin, Tanzania.

PubMed

Selemani, Juma R; Zhang, Jing; Muzuka, Alfred N N; Njau, Karoli N; Zhang, Guosen; Maggid, Arafa; Mzuza, Maureen K; Jin, Jie; Pradhan, Sonali

2017-11-01

The stable isotopes of δ 18 O, δ 2 H, and 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and dissolved major ions were used to assess spatial and seasonal water chemistry variability, chemical weathering, and hydrological cycle in the Pangani River Basin (PRB), Tanzania. Water in PRB was NaHCO 3 type dominated by carbonate weathering with moderate total dissolved solids. Major ions varied greatly, increasing from upstream to downstream. In some stations, content of fluoride and sodium was higher than the recommended drinking water standards. Natural and anthropogenic factors contributed to the lowering rate of chemical weathering; the rate was lower than most of tropical rivers. The rate of weathering was higher in Precambrian than volcanic rocks. 87 Sr/ 86 Sr was lower than global average whereas concentration of strontium was higher than global average with mean annual flux of 0.13 × 10 6  mol year -1 . Evaporation and altitude effects have caused enrichment of δ 18 O and δ 2 H in dry season and downstream of the river. Higher d-excess value than global average suggests that most of the stations were supplied by recycled moisture. Rainfall and groundwater were the major sources of surface flowing water in PRB; nevertheless, glacier from Mt. Kilimanjaro has insignificant contribution to the surface water. We recommend measures to be taken to reduce the level of fluoride and sodium before domestic use.

Role of Stratospheric Water Vapor in Global Warming from GCM Simulations Constrained by MLS Observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Stek, P. C.; Su, H.; Jiang, J. H.; Livesey, N. J.; Santee, M. L.

2014-12-01

Over the past century, global average surface temperature has warmed by about 0.16°C/decade, largely due to anthropogenic increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases. However, the trend in global surface temperatures has been nearly flat since 2000, raising a question regarding the exploration of the drivers of climate change. Water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Previous studies suggested that the sudden decrease of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) around 2000 may have contributed to the stall of global warming. Since 2004, the SWV observed by Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on Aura satellite has shown a slow recovery. The role of recent SWV variations in global warming has not been quantified. We employ a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model, the NCAR CESM, to address this issue. It is found that the CESM underestimates the stratospheric water vapor by about 1 ppmv due to limited representations of the stratospheric dynamic and chemical processes important for water vapor variabilities. By nudging the modeled SWV to the MLS observation, we find that increasing SWV by 1 ppmv produces a robust surface warming about 0.2°C in global-mean when the model reaches equilibrium. Conversely, the sudden drop of SWV from 2000 to 2004 would cause a surface cooling about -0.08°C in global-mean. On the other hand, imposing the observed linear trend of SWV based on the 10-year observation of MLS in the CESM yields a rather slow surface warming, about 0.04°C/decade. Our model experiments suggest that SWV contributes positively to the global surface temperature variation, although it may not be the dominant factor that drives the recent global warming hiatus. Additional sensitivity experiments show that the impact of SWV on surface climate is mostly governed by the SWV amount at 100 hPa in the tropics. Furthermore, the atmospheric model simulations driven by observed sea surface temperature (SST) show that the inter-annual variation of SWV follows that of SST, suggesting a close coupling between surface temperature and SWV.

Mapping global surface water inundation dynamics using synergistic information from SMAP, AMSR2 and Landsat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, J.; Kimball, J. S.; Galantowicz, J. F.; Kim, S.; Chan, S.; Reichle, R. H.; Jones, L. A.; Watts, J. D.

2017-12-01

A method to monitor global land surface water (fw) inundation dynamics was developed by exploiting the enhanced fw sensitivity of L-band (1.4 GHz) passive microwave observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission. The L-band fw (fwLBand) retrievals were derived using SMAP H-polarization brightness temperature (Tb) observations and predefined L-band reference microwave emissivities for water and land endmembers. Potential soil moisture and vegetation contributions to the microwave signal were represented from overlapping higher frequency Tb observations from AMSR2. The resulting fwLBand global record has high temporal sampling (1-3 days) and 36-km spatial resolution. The fwLBand annual averages corresponded favourably (R=0.84, p<0.001) with a 250-m resolution static global water map (MOD44W) aggregated at the same spatial scale, while capturing significant inundation variations worldwide. The monthly fwLBand averages also showed seasonal inundation changes consistent with river discharge records within six major US river basins. An uncertainty analysis indicated generally reliable fwLBand performance for major land cover areas and under low to moderate vegetation cover, but with lower accuracy for detecting water bodies covered by dense vegetation. Finer resolution (30-m) fwLBand results were obtained for three sub-regions in North America using an empirical downscaling approach and ancillary global Water Occurrence Dataset (WOD) derived from the historical Landsat record. The resulting 30-m fwLBand retrievals showed favourable classification accuracy for water (commission error 31.84%; omission error 28.08%) and land (commission error 0.82%; omission error 0.99%) and seasonal wet and dry periods when compared to independent water maps derived from Landsat-8 imagery. The new fwLBand algorithms and continuing SMAP and AMSR2 operations provide for near real-time, multi-scale monitoring of global surface water inundation dynamics, potentially benefiting hydrological monitoring, flood assessments, and global climate and carbon modeling.

CERES Monthly TOA and SRB Averages (SRBAVG) data in HDF-EOS Grid (CER_SRBAVG_Terra-FM2-MODIS_Edition2C)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A. (Principal Investigator)

The Monthly TOA/Surface Averages (SRBAVG) product contains a month of space and time averaged Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The SRBAVG is also produced for combinations of scanner instruments. The monthly average regional flux is estimated using diurnal models and the 1-degree regional fluxes at the hour of observation from the CERES SFC product. A second set of monthly average fluxes are estimated using concurrent diurnal information from geostationary satellites. These fluxes are given for both clear-sky and total-sky scenes and are spatially averaged from 1-degree regions to 1-degree zonal averages and a global average. For each region, the SRBAVG also contains hourly average fluxes for the month and an overall monthly average. The cloud properties from SFC are column averaged and are included on the SRBAVG. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-02-01; Stop_Date=2003-02-28] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1 degree; Longitude_Resolution=1 degree; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=100 km - < 250 km or approximately 1 degree - < 2.5 degrees; Temporal_Resolution=1 month; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Monthly - < Annual].

CERES Monthly TOA and SRB Averages (SRBAVG) data in HDF-EOS Grid (CER_SRBAVG_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Edition2B)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A. (Principal Investigator)

The Monthly TOA/Surface Averages (SRBAVG) product contains a month of space and time averaged Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The SRBAVG is also produced for combinations of scanner instruments. The monthly average regional flux is estimated using diurnal models and the 1-degree regional fluxes at the hour of observation from the CERES SFC product. A second set of monthly average fluxes are estimated using concurrent diurnal information from geostationary satellites. These fluxes are given for both clear-sky and total-sky scenes and are spatially averaged from 1-degree regions to 1-degree zonal averages and a global average. For each region, the SRBAVG also contains hourly average fluxes for the month and an overall monthly average. The cloud properties from SFC are column averaged and are included on the SRBAVG. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-02-01; Stop_Date=2000-03-31] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1 degree; Longitude_Resolution=1 degree; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=100 km - < 250 km or approximately 1 degree - < 2.5 degrees; Temporal_Resolution=1 month; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Monthly - < Annual].

CERES Monthly TOA and SRB Averages (SRBAVG) data in HDF-EOS Grid (CER_SRBAVG_Terra-FM1-MODIS_Edition2C)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A. (Principal Investigator)

The Monthly TOA/Surface Averages (SRBAVG) product contains a month of space and time averaged Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The SRBAVG is also produced for combinations of scanner instruments. The monthly average regional flux is estimated using diurnal models and the 1-degree regional fluxes at the hour of observation from the CERES SFC product. A second set of monthly average fluxes are estimated using concurrent diurnal information from geostationary satellites. These fluxes are given for both clear-sky and total-sky scenes and are spatially averaged from 1-degree regions to 1-degree zonal averages and a global average. For each region, the SRBAVG also contains hourly average fluxes for the month and an overall monthly average. The cloud properties from SFC are column averaged and are included on the SRBAVG. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-02-01; Stop_Date=2003-02-28] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1 degree; Longitude_Resolution=1 degree; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=100 km - < 250 km or approximately 1 degree - < 2.5 degrees; Temporal_Resolution=1 month; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Monthly - < Annual].

CERES Monthly TOA and SRB Averages (SRBAVG) data in HDF-EOS Grid (CER_SRBAVG_Terra-FM1-MODIS_Edition2D)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A. (Principal Investigator)

The Monthly TOA/Surface Averages (SRBAVG) product contains a month of space and time averaged Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The SRBAVG is also produced for combinations of scanner instruments. The monthly average regional flux is estimated using diurnal models and the 1-degree regional fluxes at the hour of observation from the CERES SFC product. A second set of monthly average fluxes are estimated using concurrent diurnal information from geostationary satellites. These fluxes are given for both clear-sky and total-sky scenes and are spatially averaged from 1-degree regions to 1-degree zonal averages and a global average. For each region, the SRBAVG also contains hourly average fluxes for the month and an overall monthly average. The cloud properties from SFC are column averaged and are included on the SRBAVG. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-02-01; Stop_Date=2004-05-31] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1 degree; Longitude_Resolution=1 degree; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=100 km - < 250 km or approximately 1 degree - < 2.5 degrees; Temporal_Resolution=1 month; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Monthly - < Annual].

Was There a Significantly Negative Anomaly of Global Land Surface Net Radiation from 2001-2006?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, S.; Jia, A.; Jiang, B.

2016-12-01

Surface net radiation, which characterizes surface energy budget, can be estimated from in-situ measurements, satellite products, model simulations, and reanalysis. Satellite products are usually validated using ground measurements to characterize their uncertainties. The surface net radiation product from the CERES (Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System) has been widely used. After validating it using extensive ground measurements, we also verified that the CERES surface net radiation product is highly accurate. When we evaluated the temporal variations of the averaged global land surface net radiation from the CERES product, we found a significantly negative anomaly starting from 2001, reaching the maximum in 2004, and gradually coming back to normal in 2006. The valley has the magnitude of approximately 3 Wm-2 centered at 2004. After comparing with the high-resolution GLASS (Global LAnd Surface Satellite) net radiation product developed at Beijing Normal University, the CMIP5 model simulations, and the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset, we concluded that the significant decreasing pattern of land surface net radiation from 2001-2006 is an artifact mainly due to inaccurate longwave net radiation of the CERES surface net radiation product. The current ground measurement networks are not spatially dense enough to capture the false negative anomaly from the CERES product, which calls for more ground measurements.

Global warming related transient albedo feedback in the Arctic and its relation to the seasonality of sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andry, Olivier; Bintanja, Richard; Hazeleger, Wilco

2015-04-01

The Arctic is warming two to three times faster than the global average. Arctic sea ice cover is very sensitive to this warming and has reached historic minima in late summer in recent years (i.e. 2007, 2012). Considering that the Arctic Ocean is mainly ice-covered and that the albedo of sea ice is very high compared to that of open water, the change in sea ice cover is very likely to have a strong impact on the local surface albedo feedback. Here we quantify the temporal changes in surface albedo feedback in response to global warming. Usually feedbacks are evaluated as being representative and constant for long time periods, but we show here that the strength of climate feedbacks in fact varies strongly with time. For instance, time series of the amplitude of the surface albedo feedback, derived from future climate simulations (CIMP5, RCP8.5 up to year 2300) using a kernel method, peaks around the year 2100. This maximum is likely caused by an increased seasonality in sea-ice cover that is inherently associated with sea ice retreat. We demonstrate that the Arctic average surface albedo has a strong seasonal signature with a maximum in spring and a minimum in late summer/autumn. In winter when incoming solar radiation is minimal the surface albedo doesn't have an important effect on the energy balance of the climate system. The annual mean surface albedo is thus determined by the seasonality of both downwelling shortwave radiation and sea ice cover. As sea ice cover reduces the seasonal signature is modified, the transient part from maximum sea ice cover to its minimum is shortened and sharpened. The sea ice cover is reduced when downwelling shortwave radiation is maximum and thus the annual surface albedo is drastically smaller. Consequently the change in annual surface albedo with time will become larger and so will the surface albedo feedback. We conclude that a stronger seasonality in sea ice leads to a stronger surface albedo feedback, which accelerates melting of sea ice. Hence, the change in seasonality and the associated change in feedback strength is an integral part of the positive surface albedo feedback leading to Arctic amplification and diminishing sea ice cover in the next century when global climate warms.

Space-based Swath Imaging Laser Altimeter for Cryospheric Topographic and Surface Property Mapping

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abshire, James; Harding, David; Shuman, Chris; Sun, Xiaoli; Dabney, Phil; Krainak, Michael; Scambos, Ted

2005-01-01

Uncertainties in the response of the Greenland and Antarctic polar ice sheets to global climatic change inspired the development of ICESat/GLAS as part of NASA's Earth Observing System. ICESat's primary purpose is the measurement of ice sheet surface elevation profiles with sufficient accuracy, spatial density, and temporal coverage so that elevation changes can be derived with an accuracy of <1.5 cm/year for averages of measurements over the ice sheets with areas of 100 x 100 km. The primary means to achieve this elevation change detection is spatial averaging of elevation differences at cross-overs between ascending and descending profiles in areas of low ice surface slope. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Effects of stratospheric ozone recovery on photochemistry and ozone air quality in the troposphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, H.; Wu, S.; Huang, Y.; Wang, Y.

2014-04-01

There has been significant stratospheric ozone depletion since the late 1970s due to ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). With the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments and adjustments, stratospheric ozone is expected to recover towards its pre-1980 level in the coming decades. In this study, we examine the implications of stratospheric ozone recovery for the tropospheric chemistry and ozone air quality with a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). With a full recovery of the stratospheric ozone, the projected increases in ozone column range from 1% over the low latitudes to more than 10% over the polar regions. The sensitivity factor of troposphere ozone photolysis rate, defined as the percentage changes in surface ozone photolysis rate for 1% increase in stratospheric ozone column, shows significant seasonal variation but is always negative with absolute value larger than one. The expected stratospheric ozone recovery is found to affect the tropospheric ozone destruction rates much more than the ozone production rates. Significant decreases in surface ozone photolysis rates due to stratospheric ozone recovery are simulated. The global average tropospheric OH decreases by 1.7%, and the global average lifetime of tropospheric ozone increases by 1.5%. The perturbations to tropospheric ozone and surface ozone show large seasonal and spatial variations. General increases in surface ozone are calculated for each season, with increases by up to 0.8 ppbv in the remote areas. Increases in ozone lifetime by up to 13% are found in the troposphere. The increased lifetimes of tropospheric ozone in response to stratospheric ozone recovery enhance the intercontinental transport of ozone and global pollution, in particular for the summertime. The global background ozone attributable to Asian emissions is calculated to increase by up to 15% or 0.3 ppbv in the Northern Hemisphere in response to the projected stratospheric ozone recovery.

Automatic 3D liver segmentation based on deep learning and globally optimized surface evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Peijun; Wu, Fa; Peng, Jialin; Liang, Ping; Kong, Dexing

2016-12-01

The detection and delineation of the liver from abdominal 3D computed tomography (CT) images are fundamental tasks in computer-assisted liver surgery planning. However, automatic and accurate segmentation, especially liver detection, remains challenging due to complex backgrounds, ambiguous boundaries, heterogeneous appearances and highly varied shapes of the liver. To address these difficulties, we propose an automatic segmentation framework based on 3D convolutional neural network (CNN) and globally optimized surface evolution. First, a deep 3D CNN is trained to learn a subject-specific probability map of the liver, which gives the initial surface and acts as a shape prior in the following segmentation step. Then, both global and local appearance information from the prior segmentation are adaptively incorporated into a segmentation model, which is globally optimized in a surface evolution way. The proposed method has been validated on 42 CT images from the public Sliver07 database and local hospitals. On the Sliver07 online testing set, the proposed method can achieve an overall score of 80.3+/- 4.5 , yielding a mean Dice similarity coefficient of 97.25+/- 0.65 % , and an average symmetric surface distance of 0.84+/- 0.25 mm. The quantitative validations and comparisons show that the proposed method is accurate and effective for clinical application.

Geometric stabilization of the electrostatic ion-temperature-gradient driven instability. I. Nearly axisymmetric systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zocco, A.; Plunk, G. G.; Xanthopoulos, P.

The effects of a non-axisymmetric (3D) equilibrium magnetic field on the linear ion-temperature-gradient (ITG) driven mode are investigated. We consider the strongly driven, toroidal branch of the instability in a global (on the magnetic surface) setting. Previous studies have focused on particular features of non-axisymmetric systems, such as strong local shear or magnetic ripple, that introduce inhomogeneity in the coordinate along the magnetic field. In contrast, here we include non-axisymmetry explicitly via the dependence of the magnetic drift on the field line label α, i.e., across the magnetic field, but within the magnetic flux surface. We consider the limit wheremore » this variation occurs on a scale much larger than that of the ITG mode, and also the case where these scales are similar. Close to axisymmetry, we find that an averaging effect of the magnetic drift on the flux surface causes global (on the surface) stabilization, as compared to the most unstable local mode. In the absence of scale separation, we find destabilization is also possible, but only if a particular resonance occurs between the magnetic drift and the mode, and finite Larmor radius effects are neglected. We discuss the relative importance of surface global effects and known radially global effects.« less

Modeling Climate Dynamically

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walsh, Jim; McGehee, Richard

2013-01-01

A dynamical systems approach to energy balance models of climate is presented, focusing on low order, or conceptual, models. Included are global average and latitude-dependent, surface temperature models. The development and analysis of the differential equations and corresponding bifurcation diagrams provides a host of appropriate material for…

Processing vertical size disparities in distinct depth planes.

PubMed

Duke, Philip A; Howard, Ian P

2012-08-17

A textured surface appears slanted about a vertical axis when the image in one eye is horizontally enlarged relative to the image in the other eye. The surface appears slanted in the opposite direction when the same image is vertically enlarged. Two superimposed textured surfaces with different horizontal size disparities appear as two surfaces that differ in slant. Superimposed textured surfaces with equal and opposite vertical size disparities appear as a single frontal surface. The vertical disparities are averaged. We investigated whether vertical size disparities are averaged across two superimposed textured surfaces in different depth planes or whether they induce distinct slants in the two depth planes. In Experiment 1, two superimposed textured surfaces with different vertical size disparities were presented in two depth planes defined by horizontal disparity. The surfaces induced distinct slants when the horizontal disparity was more than ±5 arcmin. Thus, vertical size disparities are not averaged over surfaces with different horizontal disparities. In Experiment 2 we confirmed that vertical size disparities are processed in surfaces away from the horopter, so the results of Experiment 1 cannot be explained by the processing of vertical size disparities in a fixated surface only. Together, these results show that vertical size disparities are processed separately in distinct depth planes. The results also suggest that vertical size disparities are not used to register slant globally by their effect on the registration of binocular direction of gaze.

Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) algorithm theoretical basis document. volume 4; Determination of surface and atmosphere fluxes and temporally and spatially averaged products (subsystems 5-12); Determination of surface and atmosphere fluxes and temporally and spatially averaged products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A. (Principal Investigator); Barkstrom, Bruce R. (Principal Investigator); Baum, Bryan A.; Charlock, Thomas P.; Green, Richard N.; Lee, Robert B., III; Minnis, Patrick; Smith, G. Louis; Coakley, J. A.; Randall, David R.

1995-01-01

The theoretical bases for the Release 1 algorithms that will be used to process satellite data for investigation of the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) are described. The architecture for software implementation of the methodologies is outlined. Volume 4 details the advanced CERES techniques for computing surface and atmospheric radiative fluxes (using the coincident CERES cloud property and top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) flux products) and for averaging the cloud properties and TOA, atmospheric, and surface radiative fluxes over various temporal and spatial scales. CERES attempts to match the observed TOA fluxes with radiative transfer calculations that use as input the CERES cloud products and NOAA National Meteorological Center analyses of temperature and humidity. Slight adjustments in the cloud products are made to obtain agreement of the calculated and observed TOA fluxes. The computed products include shortwave and longwave fluxes from the surface to the TOA. The CERES instantaneous products are averaged on a 1.25-deg latitude-longitude grid, then interpolated to produce global, synoptic maps to TOA fluxes and cloud properties by using 3-hourly, normalized radiances from geostationary meteorological satellites. Surface and atmospheric fluxes are computed by using these interpolated quantities. Clear-sky and total fluxes and cloud properties are then averaged over various scales.

Estimating moisture transport over oceans using space-based observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, W. Timothy; Wenqing, Tang

2005-01-01

The moisture transport integrated over the depth of the atmosphere (0) is estimated over oceans using satellite data. The transport is the product of the precipitable water and an equivalent velocity (ue), which, by definition, is the depth-averaged wind velocity weighted by humidity. An artificial neural network is employed to construct a relation between the surface wind velocity measured by the spaceborne scatterometer and coincident ue derived using humidity and wind profiles measured by rawinsondes and produced by reanalysis of operational numerical weather prediction (NWP). On the basis of this relation, 0 fields are produced over global tropical and subtropical oceans (40_N- 40_S) at 0.25_ latitude-longitude and twice daily resolutions from August 1999 to December 2003 using surface wind vector from QuikSCAT and precipitable water from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission. The derived ue were found to capture the major temporal variability when compared with radiosonde measurements. The average error over global oceans, when compared with NWP data, was comparable with the instrument accuracy specification of space-based scatterometers. The global distribution exhibits the known characteristics of, and reveals more detailed variability than in, previous data.

Data-based estimates of the ocean carbon sink variability - results of the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rödenbeck, Christian; Bakker, Dorothee; Gruber, Nicolas; Iida, Yosuke; Jacobson, Andy; Jones, Steve; Landschützer, Peter; Metzl, Nicolas; Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro; Olsen, Are; Park, Geun-Ha; Peylin, Philippe; Rodgers, Keith; Sasse, Tristan; Schuster, Ute; Shutler, James; Valsala, Vinu; Wanninkhof, Rik; Zeng, Jiye

2016-04-01

Using measurements of the surface-ocean COtwo partial pressure (pCOtwo) from the SOCAT and LDEO data bases and 14 different pCOtwo mapping methods recently collated by the Surface Ocean pCOtwo Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM) initiative, variations in regional and global sea-air COtwo fluxes are investigated. Though the available mapping methods use widely different approaches, we find relatively consistent estimates of regional pCOtwo seasonality, in line with previous estimates. In terms of interannual variability (IAV), all mapping methods estimate the largest variations to occur in the Eastern equatorial Pacific. Despite considerable spread in the detailed variations, mapping methods that fit the data more closely also tend to agree more closely with each other in regional averages. Encouragingly, this includes mapping methods belonging to complementary types - taking variability either directly from the pCOtwo data or indirectly from driver data via regression. From a weighted ensemble average, we find an IAV amplitude of the global sea-air COtwo flux of IAVampl (standard deviation over AnalysisPeriod), which is larger than simulated by biogeochemical process models. On a decadal perspective, the global ocean COtwo uptake is estimated to have gradually increased since about 2000, with little decadal change prior to that. The weighted mean net global ocean COtwo sink estimated by the SOCOM ensemble is -1.75 UPgCyr (AnalysisPeriod), consistent within uncertainties with estimates from ocean-interior carbon data or atmospheric oxygen trends. Using data-based sea-air COtwo fluxes in atmospheric COtwo inversions also helps to better constrain land-atmosphere COtwo fluxes.

Data-based estimates of the ocean carbon sink variability - first results of the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rödenbeck, C.; Bakker, D. C. E.; Gruber, N.; Iida, Y.; Jacobson, A. R.; Jones, S.; Landschützer, P.; Metzl, N.; Nakaoka, S.; Olsen, A.; Park, G.-H.; Peylin, P.; Rodgers, K. B.; Sasse, T. P.; Schuster, U.; Shutler, J. D.; Valsala, V.; Wanninkhof, R.; Zeng, J.

2015-12-01

Using measurements of the surface-ocean CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) and 14 different pCO2 mapping methods recently collated by the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM) initiative, variations in regional and global sea-air CO2 fluxes are investigated. Though the available mapping methods use widely different approaches, we find relatively consistent estimates of regional pCO2 seasonality, in line with previous estimates. In terms of interannual variability (IAV), all mapping methods estimate the largest variations to occur in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Despite considerable spread in the detailed variations, mapping methods that fit the data more closely also tend to agree more closely with each other in regional averages. Encouragingly, this includes mapping methods belonging to complementary types - taking variability either directly from the pCO2 data or indirectly from driver data via regression. From a weighted ensemble average, we find an IAV amplitude of the global sea-air CO2 flux of 0.31 PgC yr-1 (standard deviation over 1992-2009), which is larger than simulated by biogeochemical process models. From a decadal perspective, the global ocean CO2 uptake is estimated to have gradually increased since about 2000, with little decadal change prior to that. The weighted mean net global ocean CO2 sink estimated by the SOCOM ensemble is -1.75 PgC yr-1 (1992-2009), consistent within uncertainties with estimates from ocean-interior carbon data or atmospheric oxygen trends.

The role of land surface fluxes in Saudi-KAU AGCM: Temperature climatology over the Arabian Peninsula for the period 1981-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashfaqur Rahman, M.; Almazroui, Mansour; Nazrul Islam, M.; O'Brien, Enda; Yousef, Ahmed Elsayed

2018-02-01

A new version of the Community Land Model (CLM) was introduced to the Saudi King Abdulaziz University Atmospheric Global Climate Model (Saudi-KAU AGCM) for better land surface component representation, and so to enhance climate simulation. CLM replaced the original land surface model (LSM) in Saudi-KAU AGCM, with the aim of simulating more accurate land surface fluxes globally, but especially over the Arabian Peninsula. To evaluate the performance of Saudi-KAU AGCM, simulations were completed with CLM and LSM for the period 1981-2010. In comparison with LSM, CLM generates surface air temperature values that are closer to National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) observations. The global annual averages of land surface air temperature are 9.51, 9.52, and 9.57 °C for NCEP, CLM, and LSM respectively, although the same atmospheric radiative and surface forcing from Saudi-KAU AGCM are provided to both LSM and CLM at every time step. The better temperature simulations when using CLM can be attributed to the more comprehensive plant functional type and hierarchical tile approach to the land cover type in CLM, along with better parameterization of upward land surface fluxes compared to LSM. At global scale, CLM exhibits smaller annual and seasonal mean biases of temperature with respect to NCEP data. Moreover, at regional scale, CLM demonstrates reasonable seasonal and annual mean temperature over the Arabian Peninsula as compared to the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data. Finally, CLM generated better matches to single point-wise observations of surface air temperature and surface fluxes for some case studies.

Modern average global sea-surface temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schweitzer, Peter N.

1993-01-01

The data contained in this data set are derived from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Multichannel Sea Surface Temperature data (AVHRR MCSST), which are obtainable from the Distributed Active Archive Center at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, Calif. The JPL tapes contain weekly images of SST from October 1981 through December 1990 in nine regions of the world ocean: North Atlantic, Eastern North Atlantic, South Atlantic, Agulhas, Indian, Southeast Pacific, Southwest Pacific, Northeast Pacific, and Northwest Pacific. This data set represents the results of calculations carried out on the NOAA data and also contains the source code of the programs that made the calculations. The objective was to derive the average sea-surface temperature of each month and week throughout the whole 10-year series, meaning, for example, that data from January of each year would be averaged together. The result is 12 monthly and 52 weekly images for each of the oceanic regions. Averaging the images in this way tends to reduce the number of grid cells that lack valid data and to suppress interannual variability.

Assessing the Monthly Averaged Variability of TOA Fluxes from CERES using EBAF, ERBE-like and FLASHFlux Data From 2001 to Present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stackhouse, Paul; Wong, Takmeng; Kratz, David; Gupta, Shashi; Wiber, Anne; Edwards, Anne

2010-05-01

The FLASHFlux (Fast Longwave and Shortwave radiative Fluxes from CERES and MODIS) project derives daily averaged gridded top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiative fluxes within one week of observation. Production of CERES based TOA and surface fluxes is achieved by using the latest CERES calibration that is assumed constant in time and by making simplifying assumptions in the computation of time and space averaged quantities. Together these assumptions result in approximately a 1% increase in the uncertainty for FLASHFlux products over CERES. Analysis has clearly demonstrated that the global-annual mean outgoing longwave radiation shows a decrease of ~0.75 Wm-2, from 2007 to 2008, while the global-annual mean reflected shortwave radiation shows a decrease of 0.14 Wm-2 over that same period. Thus, the combined longwave and shortwave changes have resulted in an increase of ~0.89 Wm-2 in net radiation into the Earth climate system in 2008. A time series of TOA fluxes was constructed from CERES EBAF, CERES ERBE-like and FLASHFLUX. Relative to this multi-dataset average from 2001 to 2008, the 2008 global-annual mean anomalies are -0.54/-0.26/+0.80 Wm-2, respectively, for the longwave/shortwave/net radiation. These flux values, which were published in the NOAA 2008 State of the Climate Report, are within their corresponding 2-sigma interannual variabilities for this period. This paper extends these results through 2009, where the net flux is observed to recover. The TOA LW variability is also compared to AIRS OLR showing excellent agreement in the anomalies. The variability appears very well correlated to the to the 2007-2009 La Nina/El Nino cycles, which altered the global distribution of clouds, total column water vapor and temperature. Reassessments of these results are expected when newer Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data are released.

Global Distribution of Outbreaks of Water-Associated Infectious Diseases

PubMed Central

Yang, Kun; LeJeune, Jeffrey; Alsdorf, Doug; Lu, Bo; Shum, C. K.; Liang, Song

2012-01-01

Background Water plays an important role in the transmission of many infectious diseases, which pose a great burden on global public health. However, the global distribution of these water-associated infectious diseases and underlying factors remain largely unexplored. Methods and Findings Based on the Global Infectious Disease and Epidemiology Network (GIDEON), a global database including water-associated pathogens and diseases was developed. In this study, reported outbreak events associated with corresponding water-associated infectious diseases from 1991 to 2008 were extracted from the database. The location of each reported outbreak event was identified and geocoded into a GIS database. Also collected in the GIS database included geo-referenced socio-environmental information including population density (2000), annual accumulated temperature, surface water area, and average annual precipitation. Poisson models with Bayesian inference were developed to explore the association between these socio-environmental factors and distribution of the reported outbreak events. Based on model predictions a global relative risk map was generated. A total of 1,428 reported outbreak events were retrieved from the database. The analysis suggested that outbreaks of water-associated diseases are significantly correlated with socio-environmental factors. Population density is a significant risk factor for all categories of reported outbreaks of water-associated diseases; water-related diseases (e.g., vector-borne diseases) are associated with accumulated temperature; water-washed diseases (e.g., conjunctivitis) are inversely related to surface water area; both water-borne and water-related diseases are inversely related to average annual rainfall. Based on the model predictions, “hotspots” of risks for all categories of water-associated diseases were explored. Conclusions At the global scale, water-associated infectious diseases are significantly correlated with socio-environmental factors, impacting all regions which are affected disproportionately by different categories of water-associated infectious diseases. PMID:22348158

The regional and global significance of nitrogen removal in lakes and reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harrison, J.A.; Maranger, R.J.; Alexander, Richard B.; Giblin, A.E.; Jacinthe, P.-A.; Mayorga, Emilio; Seitzinger, S.P.; Sobota, D.J.; Wollheim, W.M.

2009-01-01

Human activities have greatly increased the transport of biologically available nitrogen (N) through watersheds to potentially sensitive coastal ecosystems. Lentic water bodies (lakes and reservoirs) have the potential to act as important sinks for this reactive N as it is transported across the landscape because they offer ideal conditions for N burial in sediments or permanent loss via denitrification. However, the patterns and controls on lentic N removal have not been explored in great detail at large regional to global scales. In this paper we describe, evaluate, and apply a new, spatially explicit, annual-scale, global model of lentic N removal called NiRReLa (Nitrogen Retention in Reservoirs and Lakes). The NiRReLa model incorporates small lakes and reservoirs than have been included in previous global analyses, and also allows for separate treatment and analysis of reservoirs and natural lakes. Model runs for the mid-1990s indicate that lentic systems are indeed important sinks for N and are conservatively estimated to remove 19.7 Tg N year-1 from watersheds globally. Small lakes (<50 km2) were critical in the analysis, retaining almost half (9.3 Tg N year -1) of the global total. In model runs, capacity of lakes and reservoirs to remove watershed N varied substantially at the half-degree scale (0-100%) both as a function of climate and the density of lentic systems. Although reservoirs occupy just 6% of the global lentic surface area, we estimate they retain ~33% of the total N removed by lentic systems, due to a combination of higher drainage ratios (catchment surface area:lake or reservoir surface area), higher apparent settling velocities for N, and greater average N loading rates in reservoirs than in lakes. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of NiRReLa suggests that, on-average, N removal within lentic systems will respond more strongly to changes in land use and N loading than to changes in climate at the global scale. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Understanding recent climate change.

PubMed

Serreze, Mark C

2010-02-01

The Earth's atmosphere has a natural greenhouse effect, without which the global mean surface temperature would be about 33 degrees C lower and life would not be possible. Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases in trace amounts. This has enhanced the greenhouse effect, resulting in surface warming. Were it not for the partly offsetting effects of increased aerosol concentrations, the increase in global mean surface temperature over the past 100 years would be larger than observed. Continued surface warming through the 21st century is inevitable and will likely have widespread ecological impacts. The magnitude and rate of warming for the global average will be largely dictated by the strength and direction of climate feedbacks, thermal inertia of the oceans, the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, and aerosol concentrations. Because of regional expressions of climate feedbacks, changes in atmospheric circulation, and a suite of other factors, the magnitude and rate of warming and changes in other key climate elements, such as precipitation, will not be uniform across the planet. For example, due to loss of its floating sea-ice cover, the Arctic will warm the most.

Dimethyl Sulfide in the Surface Ocean and the Marine Atmosphere: A Global View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreae, Meinrat O.; Raemdonck, Hans

1983-08-01

Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) has been identified as the major volatile sulfur compound in 628 samples of surface seawater representing most of the major oceanic ecozones. In at least three respects, its vertical distribution, its local patchiness, and its distribution in oceanic ecozones, the concentration of DMS in the sea exhibits a pattern similar to that of primary production. The global weighted-average concentration of DMS in surface seawater is 102 nanograms of sulfur (DMS) per liter, corresponding to a global sea-to-air flux of 39 × 1012 grams of sulfur per year. When the biogenic sulfur contributions from the land surface are added, the biogenic sulfur gas flux is approximately equal to the anthropogenic flux of sulfur dioxide. The DMS concentration in air over the equatorial Pacific varies diurnally between 120 and 200 nanograms of sulfur (DMS) per cubic meter, in agreement with the predictions of photochemical models. The estimated source flux of DMS from the oceans to the marine atmosphere is in agreement with independently obtained estimates of the removal fluxes of DMS and its oxidation products from the atmosphere.

Climate Impacts of CALIPSO-Guided Corrections to Black Carbon Aerosol Vertical Distributions in a Global Climate Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kovilakam, Mahesh; Mahajan, Salil; Saravanan, R.

Here, we alleviate the bias in the tropospheric vertical distribution of black carbon aerosols (BC) in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) using the Cloud-Aerosol and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO)-derived vertical profiles. A suite of sensitivity experiments are conducted with 1x, 5x, and 10x the present-day model estimated BC concentration climatology, with (corrected, CC) and without (uncorrected, UC) CALIPSO-corrected BC vertical distribution. The globally averaged top of the atmosphere radiative flux perturbation of CC experiments is ~8–50% smaller compared to uncorrected (UC) BC experiments largely due to an increase in low-level clouds. The global average surface temperature increases, the globalmore » average precipitation decreases, and the ITCZ moves northward with the increase in BC radiative forcing, irrespective of the vertical distribution of BC. Further, tropical expansion metrics for the poleward extent of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley cell (HC) indicate that simulated HC expansion is not sensitive to existing model biases in BC vertical distribution.« less

Climate Impacts of CALIPSO-Guided Corrections to Black Carbon Aerosol Vertical Distributions in a Global Climate Model

DOE PAGES

Kovilakam, Mahesh; Mahajan, Salil; Saravanan, R.; ...

2017-09-13

Here, we alleviate the bias in the tropospheric vertical distribution of black carbon aerosols (BC) in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) using the Cloud-Aerosol and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO)-derived vertical profiles. A suite of sensitivity experiments are conducted with 1x, 5x, and 10x the present-day model estimated BC concentration climatology, with (corrected, CC) and without (uncorrected, UC) CALIPSO-corrected BC vertical distribution. The globally averaged top of the atmosphere radiative flux perturbation of CC experiments is ~8–50% smaller compared to uncorrected (UC) BC experiments largely due to an increase in low-level clouds. The global average surface temperature increases, the globalmore » average precipitation decreases, and the ITCZ moves northward with the increase in BC radiative forcing, irrespective of the vertical distribution of BC. Further, tropical expansion metrics for the poleward extent of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley cell (HC) indicate that simulated HC expansion is not sensitive to existing model biases in BC vertical distribution.« less

Global average concentration and trend for hydroxyl radicals deduced from ALE/GAGE trichloroethane (methyl chloroform) data for 1978-1990

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prinn, R.; Cunnold, D.; Simmonds, P.; Alyea, F.; Boldi, R.; Crawford, A.; Fraser, P.; Gutzler, D.; Hartley, D.; Rosen, R.

1992-01-01

An optimal estimation inversion scheme is utilized with atmospheric data and emission estimates to determined the globally averaged CH3CCl3 tropospheric lifetime and OH concentration. The data are taken from atmospheric measurements from surface stations of 1,1,1-trichloroethane and show an annual increase of 4.4 +/- 0.2 percent. Industrial emission estimates and a small oceanic loss rate are included, and the OH concentration for the same period (1978-1990) are incorporated at 1.0 +/- 0.8 percent/yr. The positive OH trend is consistent with theories regarding OH and ozone trends with respect to land use and global warming. Attention is given to the effects of the ENSO on the CH3CCl3 data and the assumption of continuing current industrial anthropogenic emissions. A novel tropical atmospheric tracer-transport mechanism is noted with respect to the CH3CCl3 data.

Characterizing Urban Heat Islands of Global Settlements Using MODIS and Nighttime Lights Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Ping; Imhoff, Marc L.; Wolfe, Robert E.; Bounoua, Lahouari

2010-01-01

Impervious surface area (ISA) from the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and land surface temperature (LST) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) averaged over three annual cycles (2003-2005) are used in a spatial analysis to assess the urban heat island (UHI) signature on LST amplitude and its relationship with development intensity, size, and ecological setting for more than 3000 urban settlements globally. Development intensity zones based on fractional ISA are defined for each urban area emanating outward from the urban core to the nearby nonurban rural areas and used to stratify sampling for LST. Sampling is further constrained by biome type and elevation data to ensure objective intercomparisons between zones and between cities in different biomes. We find that the ecological context and settlement size significantly influence the amplitude of summer daytime UHI. Globally, an average of 3.8 C UHI is found in cities built in biomes dominated by forests; 1.9 C UHI in cities embedded in grass shrubs biomes; and only a weak UHI or sometimes an urban heat sink (UHS) in cities in arid and semi-arid biomes. Overall, the amplitude of the UHI is negatively correlated (R = -0.66) with the difference in vegetation density between urban and rural zones represented by the MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Globally averaged, the daytime UHI amplitude for all settlements is 2.6 C in summer and 1.4 C in winter. Globally, the average summer daytime UHI is 4.7 C for settlements larger than 500 square kilometers compared with 2.5 C for settlements smaller than 50 square kilometers and larger than 10 square kilometers. The stratification of cities by size indicates that the aggregated amount of ISA is the primary driver of UHI amplitude, with variations between ecological contexts and latitudinal zones. More than 60% of the total LST variance is explained by ISA for urban settlements within forests at mid to high latitudes. This percentage will increase to more than 80% when only settlements in the US are examined.

An analysis of the global spatial variability of column-averaged CO2 from SCIAMACHY and its implications for CO2 sources and sinks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, Zhen; Jiang, Hong; Liu, Jinxun; Zhang, Xiuying; Huang, Chunlin; Lu, Xuehe; Jin, Jiaxin; Zhou, Guomo

2014-01-01

Satellite observations of carbon dioxide (CO2) are important because of their potential for improving the scientific understanding of global carbon cycle processes and budgets. We present an analysis of the column-averaged dry air mole fractions of CO2 (denoted XCO2) of the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY) retrievals, which were derived from a satellite instrument with relatively long-term records (2003–2009) and with measurements sensitive to the near surface. The spatial-temporal distributions of remotely sensed XCO2 have significant spatial heterogeneity with about 6–8% variations (367–397 ppm) during 2003–2009, challenging the traditional view that the spatial heterogeneity of atmospheric CO2 is not significant enough (2 and surface CO2 were found for major ecosystems, with the exception of tropical forest. In addition, when compared with a simulated terrestrial carbon uptake from the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) and the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) carbon emission inventory, the latitudinal gradient of XCO2 seasonal amplitude was influenced by the combined effect of terrestrial carbon uptake, carbon emission, and atmospheric transport, suggesting no direct implications for terrestrial carbon sinks. From the investigation of the growth rate of XCO2 we found that the increase of CO2 concentration was dominated by temperature in the northern hemisphere (20–90°N) and by precipitation in the southern hemisphere (20–90°S), with the major contribution to global average occurring in the northern hemisphere. These findings indicated that the satellite measurements of atmospheric CO2 improve not only the estimations of atmospheric inversion, but also the understanding of the terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics and its feedback to atmospheric CO2.

The relationship between interannual and long-term cloud feedbacks

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Dessler, Andrew E.; ...

2015-12-11

The analyses of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations suggest that climate models with more positive cloud feedback in response to interannual climate fluctuations also have more positive cloud feedback in response to long-term global warming. Ensemble mean vertical profiles of cloud change in response to interannual and long-term surface warming are similar, and the ensemble mean cloud feedback is positive on both timescales. However, the average long-term cloud feedback is smaller than the interannual cloud feedback, likely due to differences in surface warming pattern on the two timescales. Low cloud cover (LCC) change in response to interannual andmore » long-term global surface warming is found to be well correlated across models and explains over half of the covariance between interannual and long-term cloud feedback. In conclusion, the intermodel correlation of LCC across timescales likely results from model-specific sensitivities of LCC to sea surface warming.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Dessler, Andrew E.

The analyses of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations suggest that climate models with more positive cloud feedback in response to interannual climate fluctuations also have more positive cloud feedback in response to long-term global warming. Ensemble mean vertical profiles of cloud change in response to interannual and long-term surface warming are similar, and the ensemble mean cloud feedback is positive on both timescales. However, the average long-term cloud feedback is smaller than the interannual cloud feedback, likely due to differences in surface warming pattern on the two timescales. Low cloud cover (LCC) change in response to interannual andmore » long-term global surface warming is found to be well correlated across models and explains over half of the covariance between interannual and long-term cloud feedback. In conclusion, the intermodel correlation of LCC across timescales likely results from model-specific sensitivities of LCC to sea surface warming.« less

Global tectonics and space geodesy.

PubMed

Gordon, R G; Stein, S

1992-04-17

Much of the success of plate tectonics can be attributed to the near rigidity of tectonic plates and the availability of data that describe the rates and directions of motion across narrow plate boundaries \\m=~\\1 to 60 kilometers wide. Nonetheless, many plate boundaries in both continental and oceanic lithosphere are not narrow but are hundreds to thousands of kilometers wide. Wide plate boundary zones cover \\m=~\\15 percent of Earth's surface area. Space geodesy, which includes very long baseline radio interferometry, satellite laser ranging, and the global positioning system, is providing the accurate long-distance measurements needed to estimate the present motion across and within wide plate boundary zones. Space geodetic data show that plate velocities averaged over years are remarkably similar to velocities averaged over millions of years.

Influence of wind speed averaging on estimates of dimethylsulfide emission fluxes

DOE PAGES

Chapman, E. G.; Shaw, W. J.; Easter, R. C.; ...

2002-12-03

The effect of various wind-speed-averaging periods on calculated DMS emission fluxes is quantitatively assessed. Here, a global climate model and an emission flux module were run in stand-alone mode for a full year. Twenty-minute instantaneous surface wind speeds and related variables generated by the climate model were archived, and corresponding 1-hour-, 6-hour-, daily-, and monthly-averaged quantities calculated. These various time-averaged, model-derived quantities were used as inputs in the emission flux module, and DMS emissions were calculated using two expressions for the mass transfer velocity commonly used in atmospheric models. Results indicate that the time period selected for averaging wind speedsmore » can affect the magnitude of calculated DMS emission fluxes. A number of individual marine cells within the global grid show DMS emissions fluxes that are 10-60% higher when emissions are calculated using 20-minute instantaneous model time step winds rather than monthly-averaged wind speeds, and at some locations the differences exceed 200%. Many of these cells are located in the southern hemisphere where anthropogenic sulfur emissions are low and changes in oceanic DMS emissions may significantly affect calculated aerosol concentrations and aerosol radiative forcing.« less

The water footprint of humanity.

PubMed

Hoekstra, Arjen Y; Mekonnen, Mesfin M

2012-02-28

This study quantifies and maps the water footprint (WF) of humanity at a high spatial resolution. It reports on consumptive use of rainwater (green WF) and ground and surface water (blue WF) and volumes of water polluted (gray WF). Water footprints are estimated per nation from both a production and consumption perspective. International virtual water flows are estimated based on trade in agricultural and industrial commodities. The global annual average WF in the period 1996-2005 was 9,087 Gm(3)/y (74% green, 11% blue, 15% gray). Agricultural production contributes 92%. About one-fifth of the global WF relates to production for export. The total volume of international virtual water flows related to trade in agricultural and industrial products was 2,320 Gm(3)/y (68% green, 13% blue, 19% gray). The WF of the global average consumer was 1,385 m(3)/y. The average consumer in the United States has a WF of 2,842 m(3)/y, whereas the average citizens in China and India have WFs of 1,071 and 1,089 m(3)/y, respectively. Consumption of cereal products gives the largest contribution to the WF of the average consumer (27%), followed by meat (22%) and milk products (7%). The volume and pattern of consumption and the WF per ton of product of the products consumed are the main factors determining the WF of a consumer. The study illustrates the global dimension of water consumption and pollution by showing that several countries heavily rely on foreign water resources and that many countries have significant impacts on water consumption and pollution elsewhere.

Northwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperatures.

PubMed

Mei, Wei; Xie, Shang-Ping; Primeau, François; McWilliams, James C; Pasquero, Claudia

2015-05-01

Dominant climatic factors controlling the lifetime peak intensity of typhoons are determined from six decades of Pacific typhoon data. We find that upper ocean temperatures in the low-latitude northwestern Pacific (LLNWP) and sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific control the seasonal average lifetime peak intensity by setting the rate and duration of typhoon intensification, respectively. An anomalously strong LLNWP upper ocean warming has favored increased intensification rates and led to unprecedentedly high average typhoon intensity during the recent global warming hiatus period, despite a reduction in intensification duration tied to the central equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Continued LLNWP upper ocean warming as predicted under a moderate [that is, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5] climate change scenario is expected to further increase the average typhoon intensity by an additional 14% by 2100.

Overview of surface ozone variability in East Asia-North Pacific region during IGAC/APARE (1994--1996).

PubMed

Lam, K S; Wang, T J; Wang, T; Tang, J; Kajii, Y; Liu, C M; Shim, S G

2004-01-01

Surface ozone (O3) was measured at Oki Island (Japan), Cheju Island (South Korea), Lanyu Island (Taiwan Province, China), Cape D'Aguilar (Hong Kong SAR) and Lin'an, Longfenshan, Waliguan (China mainland) during January 1994--December 1996 as a component of IGAC/APARE (International Global Atmospheric Chemistry/East Asia-North Pacific Regional Experiment). This paper gave a joint discussion on the observational results at these stations over the study region. Investigations showed that the average of surface O3 mixing ratios at the seven sites are 47.9+/-15.8, 48.1+/-17.9, 30.2+/-16.4, 31.6+/-17.5, 36.3+/-17.5, 34.8+/-11.5 and 48.2+/-9.5 ppbv, respectively. Significant diurnal variations of surface O3 have been observed at Oki, Cheju, D'Aguilar, Lin'an and Longfenshan. Their annual averaged diurnal differences range from 8 to 23 ppbv and differ in each season. Surface O3 at Lanyu and Waliguan do not show strong diurnal variability. Seasonal cycles of surface O3 showed difference at the temperate and the subtropical remote sites. Oki has a summer minimum-spring maximum, while Lanyu has a summer minimum-autumn maximum. The suburban sites at D'Aguilar and Lin'an report high-level O3 in autumn and low level O3 in summer. Surface O3 remains-high in autumn and low in winter at the rural site Longfenshan. For the global background station Waliguan, surface O3 exhibits a broad spring-summer maximum and autumn-winter minimum. The backward air trajectories to these sites have shown different pathways of long-range transport of air pollution from East Asia Continent to North Pacific Ocean. Surface O3 was found to be strongly and positively correlated with CO at Oki and Lanyu, especially in spring and autumn, reflecting the substantial photochemical buildup of O3 on a regional scale. It is believed that the regional sources of pollution in East Asia have enhanced the average surface O3 concentrations in the background atmosphere of North Pacific.

A Hiatus of the Greenhouse Effect.

PubMed

Song, Jinjie; Wang, Yuan; Tang, Jianping

2016-09-12

The rate at which the global average surface temperature is increasing has slowed down since the end of the last century. This study investigates whether this warming hiatus results from a change in the well-known greenhouse effect. Using long-term, reliable, and consistent observational data from the Earth's surface and the top of the atmosphere (TOA), two monthly gridded atmospheric and surface greenhouse effect parameters (Ga and Gs) are estimated to represent the radiative warming effects of the atmosphere and the surface in the infrared range from 1979 to 2014. The atmospheric and surface greenhouse effect over the tropical monsoon-prone regions is found to contribute substantially to the global total. Furthermore, the downward tendency of cloud activity leads to a greenhouse effect hiatus after the early 1990 s, prior to the warming pause. Additionally, this pause in the greenhouse effect is mostly caused by the high number of La Niña events between 1991 and 2014. A strong La Niña indicates suppressed convection in the tropical central Pacific that reduces atmospheric water vapor content and cloud volume. This significantly weakened regional greenhouse effect offsets the enhanced warming influence in other places and decelerates the rising global greenhouse effect. This work suggests that the greenhouse effect hiatus can be served as an additional factor to cause the recent global warming slowdown.

A Hiatus of the Greenhouse Effect

PubMed Central

Song, Jinjie; Wang, Yuan; Tang, Jianping

2016-01-01

The rate at which the global average surface temperature is increasing has slowed down since the end of the last century. This study investigates whether this warming hiatus results from a change in the well-known greenhouse effect. Using long-term, reliable, and consistent observational data from the Earth’s surface and the top of the atmosphere (TOA), two monthly gridded atmospheric and surface greenhouse effect parameters (Ga and Gs) are estimated to represent the radiative warming effects of the atmosphere and the surface in the infrared range from 1979 to 2014. The atmospheric and surface greenhouse effect over the tropical monsoon-prone regions is found to contribute substantially to the global total. Furthermore, the downward tendency of cloud activity leads to a greenhouse effect hiatus after the early 1990 s, prior to the warming pause. Additionally, this pause in the greenhouse effect is mostly caused by the high number of La Niña events between 1991 and 2014. A strong La Niña indicates suppressed convection in the tropical central Pacific that reduces atmospheric water vapor content and cloud volume. This significantly weakened regional greenhouse effect offsets the enhanced warming influence in other places and decelerates the rising global greenhouse effect. This work suggests that the greenhouse effect hiatus can be served as an additional factor to cause the recent global warming slowdown. PMID:27616203

A Hiatus of the Greenhouse Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jinjie; Wang, Yuan; Tang, Jianping

2016-09-01

The rate at which the global average surface temperature is increasing has slowed down since the end of the last century. This study investigates whether this warming hiatus results from a change in the well-known greenhouse effect. Using long-term, reliable, and consistent observational data from the Earth’s surface and the top of the atmosphere (TOA), two monthly gridded atmospheric and surface greenhouse effect parameters (Ga and Gs) are estimated to represent the radiative warming effects of the atmosphere and the surface in the infrared range from 1979 to 2014. The atmospheric and surface greenhouse effect over the tropical monsoon-prone regions is found to contribute substantially to the global total. Furthermore, the downward tendency of cloud activity leads to a greenhouse effect hiatus after the early 1990 s, prior to the warming pause. Additionally, this pause in the greenhouse effect is mostly caused by the high number of La Niña events between 1991 and 2014. A strong La Niña indicates suppressed convection in the tropical central Pacific that reduces atmospheric water vapor content and cloud volume. This significantly weakened regional greenhouse effect offsets the enhanced warming influence in other places and decelerates the rising global greenhouse effect. This work suggests that the greenhouse effect hiatus can be served as an additional factor to cause the recent global warming slowdown.

Impacts of the large increase in international ship traffic 2000-2007 on tropospheric ozone and methane.

PubMed

Dalsøren, Stig B; Eide, Magnus S; Myhre, Gunnar; Endresen, Oyvind; Isaksen, Ivar S A; Fuglestvedt, Jan S

2010-04-01

The increase in civil world fleet ship emissions during the period 2000-2007 and the effects on key tropospheric oxidants are quantified using a global Chemical Transport Model (CTM). We estimate a substantial increase of 33% in global ship emissions over this period. The impact of ship emissions on tropospheric oxidants is mainly caused by the relatively large fraction of NOx in ship exhaust. Typical increases in yearly average surface ozone concentrations in the most impacted areas are 0.5-2.5 ppbv. The global annual mean radiative forcing due to ozone increases in the troposphere is 10 mWm(-2) over the period 2000-2007. We find global average tropospheric OH increase of 1.03% over the same period. As a result of this the global average tropospheric methane concentration is reduced by approximately 2.2% over a period corresponding to the turnover time. The resulting methane radiative forcing is -14 mWm(-2) with an additional contribution of -6 mWm(-2) from methane induced reduction in ozone. The net forcing of the ozone and methane changes due to ship emissions changes between 2000 and 2007 is -10 mWm(-2). This is significant compared to the net forcing of these components in 2000. Our findings support earlier observational studies indicating that ship traffic may be a major contributor to recent enhancement of background ozone at some coastal stations. Furthermore, by reducing global mean tropospheric methane by 40 ppbv over its turnover time it is likely to contribute to the recent observed leveling off in global mean methane concentration.

Seasonal Surface Loading Helps Constrain Short-Term Viscosity of the Asthenosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, Peter J.

2018-03-01

Earth materials may display a range of rheological behaviors at different depths and over different timescales. The situation is particularly complex for postseismic relaxation in the uppermost mantle and lower crust, where it can be difficult to distinguish widespread viscous behavior from earthquake afterslip or localized deformation in shear zones over timescales of weeks to decades. By analyzing geodetic observations of seasonal surface mass loads and Earth's surface deformation in response, Chanard et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076451) have established a globally averaged lower bound of 5 × 1017 Pa s for the transient viscosity of a Burgers-rheology asthenosphere. This implies that lower viscosities inferred by some studies of postseismic relaxation must result from local departures from this global value, or be an artifact of additional afterslip or shear zone deformation.

The tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

2016-09-01

Global mean surface temperature change over the past 120 years resembles a rising staircase: the overall warming trend was interrupted by the mid-twentieth-century big hiatus and the warming slowdown since about 1998. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation has been implicated in modulations of global mean surface temperatures, but which part of the mode drives the variability in warming rates is unclear. Here we present a successful simulation of the global warming staircase since 1900 with a global ocean-atmosphere coupled model where tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are forced to follow the observed evolution. Without prescribed tropical Pacific variability, the same model, on average, produces a continual warming trend that accelerates after the 1960s. We identify four events where the tropical Pacific decadal cooling markedly slowed down the warming trend. Matching the observed spatial and seasonal fingerprints we identify the tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the warming staircase, with radiative forcing driving the overall warming trend. Specifically, tropical Pacific variability amplifies the first warming epoch of the 1910s-1940s and determines the timing when the big hiatus starts and ends. Our method of removing internal variability from the observed record can be used for real-time monitoring of anthropogenic warming.

Global baseline data on phosphorus pollution of large lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fink, Gabriel; Flörke, Martina; Alcamo, Joseph

2016-04-01

Lakes are exposed to harmful eutrophication which is the most concerning water quality issue on global scale. Eutrophication is caused by phosphorous pollution in most lakes. Hence, global consistent base line data on phosphorus loadings are needed to assess future sustainable development. We used the modeling framework WaterGAP3 to calculate present total phosphorus loadings to the world's largest lakes. Estimates of modeled total phosphorus (TP) loadings as well as the contributions of different sectors were successfully validated against measured data. Based on these findings, annual total phosphorus loadings to lakes were calculated for diffuse and point sources according to the different sectors domestic, manufacturing, urban surface runoff, agriculture and background for the time period 1990 to 2010. Our results show high phosphorus loadings into lakes in southern latitudes. On global average, industrial fertilizer is the main anthropogenic source while background loadings are low in comparison. Nevertheless, both features indicate a high potential to reduce the exposure to eutrophication in lakes which are faced with high phosphor inputs. The global average of TP loadings was 7% higher in the time period 2005-2010 than in the period 1990-1995. The global average in 2005-2010 results from an increase in TP loadings of 79% in South America, which was dampened by a decrease in Europe, North America, and Asia. Chinese lakes were exposed to massive increasing phosphorus loadings, too. Both increasing and decreasing trends are caused primarily by changing industrial fertilizer application rates. In conclusion, this study provides a consistent and model based synopsis of global trends and sources of phosphorus loadings to large lakes. The estimates of phosphorus pollution of lakes present a basis for assessing and managing the global eutrophication problem.

An Assessment of Hydrogen as a Means to Implement the United States Navy’s Renewable Energy Initiative

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

pH of Household Items and Associated Effect on Fish , after [5] 5 As the world’s average surface temperature increases and continues to negatively... Effect on Fish , after [5] ........... 4  Figure 4.  Historical and Predicted Sea Level Change, after [10] ......................... 6  Figure 5...IPCC states in a 2014 climate change report [4] that, “[t]he global average consumption of fish and other products from fisheries and aquaculture in

Simulated responses of terrestrial aridity to black carbon and sulfate aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, L.; Gettelman, A.; Xu, Y.; Fu, Q.

2016-01-01

Aridity index (AI), defined as the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (PET), is a measure of the dryness of terrestrial climate. Global climate models generally project future decreases of AI (drying) associated with global warming scenarios driven by increasing greenhouse gas and declining aerosols. Given their different effects in the climate system, scattering and absorbing aerosols may affect AI differently. Here we explore the terrestrial aridity responses to anthropogenic black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO4) aerosols with Community Earth System Model simulations. Positive BC radiative forcing decreases precipitation averaged over global land at a rate of 0.9%/°C of global mean surface temperature increase (moderate drying), while BC radiative forcing increases PET by 1.0%/°C (also drying). BC leads to a global decrease of 1.9%/°C in AI (drying). SO4 forcing is negative and causes precipitation a decrease at a rate of 6.7%/°C cooling (strong drying). PET also decreases in response to SO4 aerosol cooling by 6.3%/°C cooling (contributing to moistening). Thus, SO4 cooling leads to a small decrease in AI (drying) by 0.4%/°C cooling. Despite the opposite effects on global mean temperature, BC and SO4 both contribute to the twentieth century drying (AI decrease). Sensitivity test indicates that surface temperature and surface available energy changes dominate BC- and SO4-induced PET changes.

Consistency of Estimated Global Water Cycle Variations Over the Satellite Era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, F. R.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Roberts, J. B.; Reichle, R. H.; Adler, R.; Ricciardulli, L.; Berg, W.; Huffman, G. J.

2013-01-01

Motivated by the question of whether recent indications of decadal climate variability and a possible "climate shift" may have affected the global water balance, we examine evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) variability integrated over the global oceans and global land from three points of view-remotely sensed retrievals / objective analyses over the oceans, reanalysis vertically-integrated moisture convergence (MFC) over land, and land surface models forced with observations-based precipitation, radiation and near-surface meteorology. Because monthly variations in area-averaged atmospheric moisture storage are small and the global integral of moisture convergence must approach zero, area-integrated E-P over ocean should essentially equal precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET) over land (after adjusting for ocean and land areas). Our analysis reveals considerable uncertainty in the decadal variations of ocean evaporation when integrated to global scales. This is due to differences among datasets in 10m wind speed and near-surface atmospheric specific humidity (2m qa) used in bulk aerodynamic retrievals. Precipitation variations, all relying substantially on passive microwave retrievals over ocean, still have uncertainties in decadal variability, but not to the degree present with ocean evaporation estimates. Reanalysis MFC and P-ET over land from several observationally forced diagnostic and land surface models agree best on interannual variations. However, upward MFC (i.e. P-ET) reanalysis trends are likely related in part to observing system changes affecting atmospheric assimilation models. While some evidence for a low-frequency E-P maximum near 2000 is found, consistent with a recent apparent pause in sea-surface temperature (SST) rise, uncertainties in the datasets used here remain significant. Prospects for further reducing uncertainties are discussed. The results are interpreted in the context of recent climate variability (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Overturning), and efforts to distinguish these modes from longer-term trends.

Surface Freshwater Storage and Variability in the Amazon Basin from Multi-Satellite Observations, 1993-2007

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Papa, Fabrice; Frappart, Frederic; Guntner, Andreas; Prigent, Catherine; Aires, Filipe; Getirana, Augusto; Maurer, Raffael

2013-01-01

The amount of water stored and moving through the surface water bodies of large river basins (river, floodplains, wetlands) plays a major role in the global water and biochemical cycles and is a critical parameter for water resources management. However, the spatio-temporal variations of these freshwater reservoirs are still widely unknown at the global scale. Here, we propose a hypsographic curve approach to estimate surface freshwater storage variations over the Amazon basin combining surface water extent from a multi-satellite-technique with topographic data from the Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) from Advance Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER). Monthly surface water storage variations for 1993-2007 are presented, showing a strong seasonal and interannual variability, and are evaluated against in situ river discharge and precipitation. The basin-scale mean annual amplitude of approx. 1200 cu km is in the range of previous estimates and contributes to about half of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) total water storage variations. For the first time, we map the surface water volume anomaly during the extreme droughts of 1997 (October-November) and 2005 (September-October) and found that during these dry events the water stored in the river and flood-plains of the Amazon basin was, respectively, approx. 230 (approx. 40%) and 210 (approx. 50%) cu km below the 1993-2007 average. This new 15year data set of surface water volume represents an unprecedented source of information for future hydrological or climate modeling of the Amazon. It is also a first step toward the development of such database at the global scale.

Constraints on Transient Viscoelastic Rheology of the Asthenosphere From Seasonal Deformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chanard, Kristel; Fleitout, Luce; Calais, Eric; Barbot, Sylvain; Avouac, Jean-Philippe

2018-03-01

We discuss the constraints on short-term asthenospheric viscosity provided by seasonal deformation of the Earth. We use data from 195 globally distributed continuous Global Navigation Satellite System stations. Surface loading is derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and used as an input to predict geodetic displacements. We compute Green's functions for surface displacements for a purely elastic spherical reference Earth model and for viscoelastic Earth models. We show that a range of transient viscoelastic rheologies derived to explain the early phase of postseismic deformation may induce a detectable effect on the phase and amplitude of horizontal displacements induced by seasonal loading at long wavelengths (1,300-4,000 km). By comparing predicted and observed seasonal horizontal motion, we conclude that transient asthenospheric viscosity cannot be lower than 5 × 1017 Pa.s, suggesting that low values of transient asthenospheric viscosities reported in some postseismic studies cannot hold for the seasonal deformation global average.

The Contribution of Reservoirs to Global Land Surface Water Storage Variations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Tian; Nijssen, Bart; Gao, Huilin

Man-made reservoirs play a key role in the terrestrial water system. They alter water fluxes at the land surface and impact surface water storage through water management regulations for diverse purposes such as irrigation, municipal water supply, hydropower generation, and flood control. Although most developed countries have established sophisticated observing systems for many variables in the land surface water cycle, long-term and consistent records of reservoir storage are much more limited and not always shared. Furthermore, most land surface hydrological models do not represent the effects of water management activities. Here, the contribution of reservoirs to seasonal water storage variationsmore » is investigated using a large-scale water management model to simulate the effects of reservoir management at basin and continental scales. The model was run from 1948 to 2010 at a spatial resolution of 0.258 latitude–longitude. A total of 166 of the largest reservoirs in the world with a total capacity of about 3900 km3 (nearly 60%of the globally integrated reservoir capacity) were simulated. The global reservoir storage time series reflects the massive expansion of global reservoir capacity; over 30 000 reservoirs have been constructed during the past half century, with a mean absolute interannual storage variation of 89 km3. The results indicate that the average reservoir-induced seasonal storage variation is nearly 700 km3 or about 10%of the global reservoir storage. For some river basins, such as the Yellow River, seasonal reservoir storage variations can be as large as 72%of combined snow water equivalent and soil moisture storage.« less

Aquarius Instrument Science Calibration During the Risk Reduction Phase

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruf, Christopher S.

2004-01-01

This final report presents the results of work performed under NASA Grant NAG512726 during the period 15 January 2003 through 30 June 2004. An analysis was performed of a possible vicarious calibration method for use by Aquarius to monitor and stabilize the absolute and relative calibration of its microwave radiometer. Stationary statistical properties of the brightness temperature (T(sub B)) measured by a low Earth orbiting radiometer operating at 1.4135 GHz are considered as a means of validating its absolute calibration. The global minimum, maximum, and average T(sub B) are considered, together with a vicarious cold reference method that detects the presence of a sharp lower bound on naturally occurring values for T(sub B). Of particular interest is the reliability with which these statistics can be extracted from a realistic distribution of T(sub B) measurements that would be observed by a typical sensor. Simulations of measurements are performed that include the effects of instrument noise and variable environmental factors such as the global water vapor and ocean surface temperature, salinity and wind distributions. Global minima can vary widely due to instrument noise and are not a reliable calibration reference. Global maxima are strongly influenced by several environmental factors as well as instrument noise and are even less stationary. Global averages are largely insensitive to instrument noise and, in most cases, to environmental conditions as well. The global average T(sub B) varies at only the 0.1 K RMS level except in cases of anomalously high winds, when it can increase considerably more. The vicarious cold reference is similarly insensitive to instrument effects and most environmental factors. It is not significantly affected by high wind conditions. The stability of the vicarious reference is, however, found to be somewhat sensitive (at the several tenths of Kelvins level) to variations in the background cold space brightness, T(sub c). The global average is much less sensitive to this parameter and so using two approaches together can be mutually beneficial.

Evaluation of the Reanalysis Surface Incident Shortwave Radiation Products from NCEP, ECMWF, GSFC, and JMA using Satellite and Surface Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Liang, S.; Wang, G.; Yao, Y.; Jiang, B.; Cheng, J.

2016-12-01

Solar radiation incident at the Earth's surface (Rs) is an essential component of the total energy exchange between the atmosphere and the surface. Reanalysis data have been widely used, but a comprehensive validation using surface measurements is still highly needed. In this study, we evaluated the Rs estimates from six current representative global reanalyses [NCEP-NCAR, NCEP-DOE; CFSR; ERA-Interim; MERRA; and JRA-55] using surface measurements from different observation networks [GEBA; BSRN; GC-NET; Buoy; and CMA] (674 sites in total) and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) EBAF product from 2001 to 2009. The global mean biases between the reanalysis Rs and surface measurements at all sites ranged from 11.25 W/m2 to 49.80 W/m2. Comparing with the CERES-EBAF Rs product, all the reanalyses overestimate Rs, except for ERA-Interim, with the biases ranging from -2.98 W/m2 to 21.97 W/m2 over the globe. It was also found that the biases of cloud fraction (CF) in the reanalyses caused the overestimation of Rs. After removing the averaged bias of CERES-EBAF, weighted by the area of the latitudinal band, a global annual mean Rs values of 184.6 W/m2, 180.0 W/m2, and 182.9 W/m2 was obtained over land, ocean, and the globe, respectively.

Global-scale modeling of groundwater recharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Döll, P.; Fiedler, K.

2008-05-01

Long-term average groundwater recharge, which is equivalent to renewable groundwater resources, is the major limiting factor for the sustainable use of groundwater. Compared to surface water resources, groundwater resources are more protected from pollution, and their use is less restricted by seasonal and inter-annual flow variations. To support water management in a globalized world, it is necessary to estimate groundwater recharge at the global scale. Here, we present a best estimate of global-scale long-term average diffuse groundwater recharge (i.e. renewable groundwater resources) that has been calculated by the most recent version of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model WGHM (spatial resolution of 0.5° by 0.5°, daily time steps). The estimate was obtained using two state-of-the-art global data sets of gridded observed precipitation that we corrected for measurement errors, which also allowed to quantify the uncertainty due to these equally uncertain data sets. The standard WGHM groundwater recharge algorithm was modified for semi-arid and arid regions, based on independent estimates of diffuse groundwater recharge, which lead to an unbiased estimation of groundwater recharge in these regions. WGHM was tuned against observed long-term average river discharge at 1235 gauging stations by adjusting, individually for each basin, the partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration and total runoff. We estimate that global groundwater recharge was 12 666 km3/yr for the climate normal 1961-1990, i.e. 32% of total renewable water resources. In semi-arid and arid regions, mountainous regions, permafrost regions and in the Asian Monsoon region, groundwater recharge accounts for a lower fraction of total runoff, which makes these regions particularly vulnerable to seasonal and inter-annual precipitation variability and water pollution. Average per-capita renewable groundwater resources of countries vary between 8 m3/(capita yr) for Egypt to more than 1 million m3/(capita yr) for the Falkland Islands, the global average in the year 2000 being 2091 m3/(capita yr). Regarding the uncertainty of estimated groundwater resources due to the two precipitation data sets, deviation from the mean is 1.1% for the global value, and less than 1% for 50 out of the 165 countries considered, between 1 and 5% for 62, between 5 and 20% for 43 and between 20 and 80% for 10 countries. Deviations at the grid scale can be much larger, ranging between 0 and 186 mm/yr.

RCCM2-BATS model over tropical South America: Applications to tropical deforestation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hahmann, A.N.; Dickinson, R.E.

A multiyear simulation of the global climate uses a revised version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model Version 2 (CCM2) coupled to the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). It is compared with global and rain gauge precipitation climatologies to evaluate precipitation fields and European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts analyses to evaluate the atmospheric circulation. The near-surface climate is compared with data from Amazonian field campaigns. The model simulation of the South American climate agrees closely with the observational record and is much improved from past simulations with previous versions of the NCAR Community Climate model overmore » this portion of the Tropics. The model is then used to study the local and regional response to tropical deforestation over Amazonia. In addition to the standard deforestation forcing, consisting mainly of increased albedo and decreased roughness length, two additional sensitivity experiments were conducted to assess the individual contributions from these forcings to the deforestation changes. The standard deforestation simulation shows slight increases in annually averaged surface temperature (+1{degrees}C) and reductions in annually averaged precipitation and evaporation (-363 and -149 mm yr{sup -1}, respectively). As expected, increases in surface albedo over Amazonia produce a reduction in net downward solar radiation at the surface and consequently a reduction in net surface radiation and surface latent heat flux. The roughness decrease, on the other hand, reduces the surface latent heat fluxes through decreases in the surface drag coefficient. The regional changes in moisture convergence and precipitation during the Amazonian wet season display a shift in the area of maximum precipitation rather than an overall decrease over the deforested area. 45 refs., 16 figs., 4 tabs.« less

Modeling and Evaluation of the Global Sea-Salt Aerosol Distribution: Sensitivity to Emission Schemes and Resolution Effects at Coastal/Orographic Sites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spada, M.; Jorba, O.; Perez Garcia-Pando, C.; Janjic, Z.; Baldasano, J. M.

2013-01-01

One of the major sources of uncertainty in model estimates of the global sea-salt aerosol distribution is the emission parameterization. We evaluate a new sea-salt aerosol life cycle module coupled to the online multi-scale chemical transport model NMMB/BSC-CTM. We compare 5 year global simulations using five state-of-the-art sea-salt open-ocean emission schemes with monthly averaged coarse aerosol optical depth (AOD) from selected AERONET sun photometers, surface concentration measurements from the University of Miami's Ocean Aerosol Network, and measurements from two NOAA/PMEL cruises (AEROINDOEX and ACE1). Model results are highly sensitive to the introduction of sea-surface-temperature (SST)-dependent emissions and to the accounting of spume particles production. Emission ranges from 3888 teragrams per year to 8114 teragrams per year, lifetime varies between 7.3 hours and 11.3 hours, and the average column mass load is between 5.0 teragrams and 7.2 teragrams. Coarse AOD is reproduced with an overall correlation of around 0.5 and with normalized biases ranging from +8.8 percent to +38.8 percent. Surface concentration is simulated with normalized biases ranging from minus 9.5 percent to plus 28 percent and the overall correlation is around 0.5. Our results indicate that SST-dependent emission schemes improve the overall model performance in reproducing surface concentrations. On the other hand, they lead to an overestimation of the coarse AOD at tropical latitudes, although it may be affected by uncertainties in the comparison due to the use of all-sky model AOD, the treatment of water uptake, deposition and optical properties in the model and/or an inaccurate size distribution at emission.

Global Estimates of Average Ground-Level Fine Particulate Matter Concentrations from Satellite-Based Aerosol Optical Depth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Van Donkelaar, A.; Martin, R. V.; Brauer, M.; Kahn, R.; Levy, R.; Verduzco, C.; Villeneuve, P.

2010-01-01

Exposure to airborne particles can cause acute or chronic respiratory disease and can exacerbate heart disease, some cancers, and other conditions in susceptible populations. Ground stations that monitor fine particulate matter in the air (smaller than 2.5 microns, called PM2.5) are positioned primarily to observe severe pollution events in areas of high population density; coverage is very limited, even in developed countries, and is not well designed to capture long-term, lower-level exposure that is increasingly linked to chronic health effects. In many parts of the developing world, air quality observation is absent entirely. Instruments aboard NASA Earth Observing System satellites, such as the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR), monitor aerosols from space, providing once daily and about once-weekly coverage, respectively. However, these data are only rarely used for health applications, in part because the can retrieve the amount of aerosols only summed over the entire atmospheric column, rather than focusing just on the near-surface component, in the airspace humans actually breathe. In addition, air quality monitoring often includes detailed analysis of particle chemical composition, impossible from space. In this paper, near-surface aerosol concentrations are derived globally from the total-column aerosol amounts retrieved by MODIS and MISR. Here a computer aerosol simulation is used to determine how much of the satellite-retrieved total column aerosol amount is near the surface. The five-year average (2001-2006) global near-surface aerosol concentration shows that World Health Organization Air Quality standards are exceeded over parts of central and eastern Asia for nearly half the year.

Understanding and improving global crop response to ozone pollution

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Concentrations of ground-level ozone ([O3]) over much of the Earth’s land surface have more than doubled since pre-industrial times. The air pollutant is highly variable over time and space, which makes it difficult to assess the average agronomic and economic impacts of the pollutant as well as to ...

The water footprint of humanity

PubMed Central

Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Mekonnen, Mesfin M.

2012-01-01

This study quantifies and maps the water footprint (WF) of humanity at a high spatial resolution. It reports on consumptive use of rainwater (green WF) and ground and surface water (blue WF) and volumes of water polluted (gray WF). Water footprints are estimated per nation from both a production and consumption perspective. International virtual water flows are estimated based on trade in agricultural and industrial commodities. The global annual average WF in the period 1996–2005 was 9,087 Gm3/y (74% green, 11% blue, 15% gray). Agricultural production contributes 92%. About one-fifth of the global WF relates to production for export. The total volume of international virtual water flows related to trade in agricultural and industrial products was 2,320 Gm3/y (68% green, 13% blue, 19% gray). The WF of the global average consumer was 1,385 m3/y. The average consumer in the United States has a WF of 2,842 m3/y, whereas the average citizens in China and India have WFs of 1,071 and 1,089 m3/y, respectively. Consumption of cereal products gives the largest contribution to the WF of the average consumer (27%), followed by meat (22%) and milk products (7%). The volume and pattern of consumption and the WF per ton of product of the products consumed are the main factors determining the WF of a consumer. The study illustrates the global dimension of water consumption and pollution by showing that several countries heavily rely on foreign water resources and that many countries have significant impacts on water consumption and pollution elsewhere. PMID:22331890

Characterization of self-affinity in the global regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neimark, Alexander V.

1994-11-01

Methods for characterization of self-affine surfaces and measurements of their roughness exponents H are developed. It is shown that for smoothed surfaces, which underwent particular coarse graining or averaging of the small-scale fluctuations, the excess surface area Sex and the mean square root radius of curvature ac are related by two distinct asymptotic power laws if ac is well below or well above a certain crossover scale acr. In the local regime of self-affinity, when ac<>acr, Sex~(ac/acr)-2(1-H)/(2-H). The former scaling relationship is consistent with the well known definition of local fractal dimensions dloc=dtop+1-H. The latter scaling relationship offers alternatives for characterization of self-affinity over large scales by means of excess dimensions defined as dex=dtop+2(1-H)/(2-H) and can be used for determination of roughness exponents from the measurements provided in the global regime. The thermodynamic method of fractal analysis, proposed earlier for self-similar surfaces (A.V. Neimark, Pis'ma Zh. Eksp. Teor. Fiz. 51, 535 (1990) [JETP Lett. 51, 607 (1990)]; Physica A 191, 258 (1992)), is extended for self-affine surfaces for determination of fractal dimensions and roughness exponents from adsorption and capillary experimental data.

Evaluation of black carbon estimations in global aerosol models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koch, D.; Schulz, M.; Kinne, S.; McNaughton, C.; Spackman, J. R.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S.; Berntsen, T.; Bond, T. C.; Boucher, O.; Chin, M.; Clarke, A.; de Luca, N.; Dentener, F.; Diehl, T.; Dubovik, O.; Easter, R.; Fahey, D. W.; Feichter, J.; Fillmore, D.; Freitag, S.; Ghan, S.; Ginoux, P.; Gong, S.; Horowitz, L.; Iversen, T.; Kirkevåg, A.; Klimont, Z.; Kondo, Y.; Krol, M.; Liu, X.; Miller, R.; Montanaro, V.; Moteki, N.; Myhre, G.; Penner, J. E.; Perlwitz, J.; Pitari, G.; Reddy, S.; Sahu, L.; Sakamoto, H.; Schuster, G.; Schwarz, J. P.; Seland, Ø.; Stier, P.; Takegawa, N.; Takemura, T.; Textor, C.; van Aardenne, J. A.; Zhao, Y.

2009-11-01

We evaluate black carbon (BC) model predictions from the AeroCom model intercomparison project by considering the diversity among year 2000 model simulations and comparing model predictions with available measurements. These model-measurement intercomparisons include BC surface and aircraft concentrations, aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) retrievals from AERONET and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and BC column estimations based on AERONET. In regions other than Asia, most models are biased high compared to surface concentration measurements. However compared with (column) AAOD or BC burden retreivals, the models are generally biased low. The average ratio of model to retrieved AAOD is less than 0.7 in South American and 0.6 in African biomass burning regions; both of these regions lack surface concentration measurements. In Asia the average model to observed ratio is 0.7 for AAOD and 0.5 for BC surface concentrations. Compared with aircraft measurements over the Americas at latitudes between 0 and 50N, the average model is a factor of 8 larger than observed, and most models exceed the measured BC standard deviation in the mid to upper troposphere. At higher latitudes the average model to aircraft BC ratio is 0.4 and models underestimate the observed BC loading in the lower and middle troposphere associated with springtime Arctic haze. Low model bias for AAOD but overestimation of surface and upper atmospheric BC concentrations at lower latitudes suggests that most models are underestimating BC absorption and should improve estimates for refractive index, particle size, and optical effects of BC coating. Retrieval uncertainties and/or differences with model diagnostic treatment may also contribute to the model-measurement disparity. Largest AeroCom model diversity occurred in northern Eurasia and the remote Arctic, regions influenced by anthropogenic sources. Changing emissions, aging, removal, or optical properties within a single model generated a smaller change in model predictions than the range represented by the full set of AeroCom models. Upper tropospheric concentrations of BC mass from the aircraft measurements are suggested to provide a unique new benchmark to test scavenging and vertical dispersion of BC in global models.

An Improved Approach for Estimating Daily Net Radiation over the Heihe River Basin

PubMed Central

Wu, Bingfang; Liu, Shufu; Zhu, Weiwei; Yan, Nana; Xing, Qiang; Tan, Shen

2017-01-01

Net radiation plays an essential role in determining the thermal conditions of the Earth’s surface and is an important parameter for the study of land-surface processes and global climate change. In this paper, an improved satellite-based approach to estimate the daily net radiation is presented, in which sunshine duration were derived from the geostationary meteorological satellite (FY-2D) cloud classification product, the monthly empirical as and bs Angstrom coefficients for net shortwave radiation were calibrated by spatial fitting of the ground data from 1997 to 2006, and the daily net longwave radiation was calibrated with ground data from 2007 to 2010 over the Heihe River Basin in China. The estimated daily net radiation values were validated against ground data for 12 months in 2008 at four stations with different underlying surface types. The average coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.8489, and the averaged Nash-Sutcliffe equation (NSE) was 0.8356. The close agreement between the estimated daily net radiation and observations indicates that the proposed method is promising, especially given the comparison between the spatial distribution and the interpolation of sunshine duration. Potential applications include climate research, energy balance studies and the estimation of global evapotranspiration. PMID:28054976

An Improved Approach for Estimating Daily Net Radiation over the Heihe River Basin.

PubMed

Wu, Bingfang; Liu, Shufu; Zhu, Weiwei; Yan, Nana; Xing, Qiang; Tan, Shen

2017-01-04

Net radiation plays an essential role in determining the thermal conditions of the Earth's surface and is an important parameter for the study of land-surface processes and global climate change. In this paper, an improved satellite-based approach to estimate the daily net radiation is presented, in which sunshine duration were derived from the geostationary meteorological satellite (FY-2D) cloud classification product, the monthly empirical a s and b s Angstrom coefficients for net shortwave radiation were calibrated by spatial fitting of the ground data from 1997 to 2006, and the daily net longwave radiation was calibrated with ground data from 2007 to 2010 over the Heihe River Basin in China. The estimated daily net radiation values were validated against ground data for 12 months in 2008 at four stations with different underlying surface types. The average coefficient of determination ( R ²) was 0.8489, and the averaged Nash-Sutcliffe equation ( NSE ) was 0.8356. The close agreement between the estimated daily net radiation and observations indicates that the proposed method is promising, especially given the comparison between the spatial distribution and the interpolation of sunshine duration. Potential applications include climate research, energy balance studies and the estimation of global evapotranspiration.

Downwelling Longwave Fluxes at Continental Surfaces-A Comparison of Observations with GCM Simulations and Implications for the Global Land-Surface Radiation Budget.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garratt, J. R.; Prata, A. J.

1996-03-01

Previous work suggests that general circulation (global climate) models have excess net radiation at land surfaces, apparently due to overestimates in downwelling shortwave flux and underestimates in upwelling long-wave flux. Part of this excess, however, may be compensated for by an underestimate in downwelling longwave flux. Long term observations of the downwelling longwave component at several land stations in Europe, the United States, Australia, and Antarctica suggest that climate models (four are used, as in previous studies) underestimate this flux component on an annual basis by up to 10 W m2, yet with low statistical significance. It is probable that the known underestimate in boundary-layer air temperature contributes to this, as would low model cloudiness and neglect of minor gases such as methane, nitrogen oxide, and the freons. The bias in downwelling longwave flux, together with those found earlier for downwelling shortwave and upwlling long-wave fluxes, are consistent with the model bias found previously for net radiation. All annually averaged fluxes and biases are deduced for global land as a whole.

A statistical examination of Nimbus 7 SMMR data and remote sensing of sea surface temperature, liquid water content in the atmosphere and surfaces wind speed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prabhakara, C.; Wang, I.; Chang, A. T. C.; Gloersen, P.

1982-01-01

Nimbus 7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) brightness temperature measurements over the global oceans have been examined with the help of statistical and empirical techniques. Such analyses show that zonal averages of brightness temperature measured by SMMR, over the oceans, on a large scale are primarily influenced by the water vapor in the atmosphere. Liquid water in the clouds and rain, which has a much smaller spatial and temporal scale, contributes substantially to the variability of the SMMR measurements within the latitudinal zones. The surface wind not only increases the surface emissivity but through its interactions with the atmosphere produces correlations, in the SMMR brightness temperature data, that have significant meteorological implications. It is found that a simple meteorological model can explain the general characteristics of the SMMR data. With the help of this model methods to infer over the global oceans, the surface temperature, liquid water content in the atmosphere, and surface wind speed are developed. Monthly mean estimates of the sea surface temperature and surface winds are compared with the ship measurements. Estimates of liquid water content in the atmosphere are consistent with earlier satellite measurements.

Return to Mercury: a global perspective on MESSENGER's first Mercury flyby.

PubMed

Solomon, Sean C; McNutt, Ralph L; Watters, Thomas R; Lawrence, David J; Feldman, William C; Head, James W; Krimigis, Stamatios M; Murchie, Scott L; Phillips, Roger J; Slavin, James A; Zuber, Maria T

2008-07-04

In January 2008, the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft became the first probe to fly past the planet Mercury in 33 years. The encounter revealed that Mercury is a dynamic system; its liquid iron-rich outer core is coupled through a dominantly dipolar magnetic field to the surface, exosphere, and magnetosphere, all of which interact with the solar wind. MESSENGER images confirm that lobate scarps are the dominant tectonic landform and record global contraction associated with cooling of the planet. The history of contraction can be related to the history of volcanism and cratering, and the total contractional strain is at least one-third greater than inferred from Mariner 10 images. On the basis of measurements of thermal neutrons made during the flyby, the average abundance of iron in Mercury's surface material is less than 6% by weight.

Do initial conditions matter? A comparison of model climatologies generated from different initial states

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Cohen, C.; Wu, P.

1981-01-01

A coarse mesh (8 by 10) 7 layer global climate model was used to compute 15 months of meteorological history in two perpetual January experiments on a water planet (without continents) with a zonally symmetric climatological January sea surface temperature field. In the first of the two water planet experiments the initial atmospheric state was a set of zonal mean values of specific humidity, temperature, and wind at each latitude. In the second experiment the model was initialized with globally uniform mean values of specific humidity and temperature on each sigma level surface, constant surface pressure (1010 mb), and zero wind everywhere. A comparison was made of the mean January climatic states generated by the two water planet experiments. The first two months of each 15 January run were discarded, and 13 month averages were computed from months 3 through 15.

A technique for global monitoring of net solar irradiance at the ocean surface. I - Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frouin, Robert; Chertock, Beth

1992-01-01

An accurate long-term (84-month) climatology of net surface solar irradiance over the global oceans from Nimbus-7 earth radiation budget (ERB) wide-field-of-view planetary-albedo data is generated via an algorithm based on radiative transfer theory. Net surface solar irradiance is computed as the difference between the top-of-atmosphere incident solar irradiance (known) and the sum of the solar irradiance reflected back to space by the earth-atmosphere system (observed) and the solar irradiance absorbed by atmospheric constituents (modeled). It is shown that the effects of clouds and clear-atmosphere constituents can be decoupled on a monthly time scale, which makes it possible to directly apply the algorithm with monthly averages of ERB planetary-albedo data. Compared theoretically with the algorithm of Gautier et al. (1980), the present algorithm yields higher solar irradiance values in clear and thin cloud conditions and lower values in thick cloud conditions.

Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

2016-08-01

The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 μg m-3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere's near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth's surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m-2. This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR's CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed treatments. This study indicates that effective climate mitigation and emission control strategies are needed to prevent future health impact and ecosystem stress. Further, studies that are used to develop these strategies should use fully coupled models with sophisticated chemical and aerosol-interaction treatments that can provide a more realistic representation of the atmosphere.

Estimating the Mean Annual Surface Air Temperature at Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, and the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for Sunspot Cycle 24, the Current Ongoing Sunspot Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2013-01-01

As noted by Gray et al., Sir William Herschel was the first to suggest a possible close connection between the Sun and the Earth’s climate. The Sun, being the source of energy that impacts and drives the Earth’s climate system, displays a variety of changes over both short and long term time scales, the most obvious examples being the somewhat regular waxing and waning of sunspots with time (i.e., the sunspot cycle (SC)), first described by Samuel Heinrich Schwabe, a German apothecary and amateur astronomer who observed the Sun from Dessau, Germany, and the now well established variation of the Sun’s irradiance over the SC. Other factors related to the SC have been linked to changes in climate as well. Some of these other factors include the role of cosmic rays and the solar wind (i.e., the geomagnetic cycle) on climate, as well as the apparent close association between trends in global and northern hemispheric temperature and the length of the SC, although some investigators have described the inferred association between climate and, in particular, SC length as now being weak. More recently, Solheim et al. have reported on the relation between SC length and the average temperature in the same and immediately following SC for a number of meteorological stations in Norway and in the North Atlantic region. They noted that while they found no significant trend (correlation) between SC length and the average temperature when measured for the same cycle, in contrast, they found a significant negative trend when SC length was compared with the following cycle’s average temperature. From this observation, they suggested that average northern hemispheric temperature during the present ongoing SC (SC24) will be lower by about 0.9 °C than was seen in SC23 (spanning 1996–2007, based on yearly averages of sunspot number (SSN), and onset for SC24 occurring in 2008). The purpose of this Technical Publication (TP) is to examine the annual variations of the Armagh surface air temperature (ASAT) and the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GLOTI) in relation to SSN and the SC in order to determine their likely values during SC24. Hence, it may provide insight as to whether solar forcing of global temperature is now lessening as a contributor to global warming, thereby indicating a possible cooling in the near term immediate future that potentially could ameliorate the effect of increased anthropogenic warming.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash

The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality ismore » projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O 3 level and of 0.3 mg m 3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO 2, H 2O 2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O 3, and increases in CH 4 and VOCs. Increasing NO x and O 3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O 3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m 2 . This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed treatments. This study indicates that effective climate mitigation and emission control strategies are needed to prevent future health impact and ecosystem stress. Further, studies that are used to develop these strategies should use fully coupled models with sophisticated chemical and aerosol-interaction treatments that can provide a more realistic representation of the atmosphere.« less

Assessment of the water and energy budget simulation of three land surface models: CLM4.5, CoLM2014, and CoLM2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, C.; Lu, H.; Wen, X.

2015-12-01

Land surface model (LSM), which simulates energy, water and momentum exchanges between land and atmosphere, is an important component of Earth System Models (ESM). As shown in CMIP5, different ESMs usually use different LSMs and represent various land surface status. In order to select a land surface model which could be embedded into the ESM developed in Tsinghua University, we firstly evaluate the performance of three LSMs: Community Land Model (CLM4.5) and two different versions of Common Land Model (CoLM2005 and CoLM2014). All of three models were driven by CRUNCEP data and simulation results from 1980 to 2010 were used in this study. Diagnostic data provided by NCAR, global latent and sensible heat flux map estimated by Jung, net radiation from SRB, and in situ observation collected from FluxNet were used as reference data. Two variables, surface runoff and snow depth, were used for evaluating the model performance in water budget simulation, while three variables including net radiation, sensible heat, and latent heat were used for assessing energy budget simulation. For 30 years averaged runoff, global average value of Colm2014 is 0.44mm/day and close to the diagnostic value of 0.75 mm/day, while that of Colm2005 is 0.44mm/day and that of CLM is 0.20mm/day. For snow depth simulation, three models all have overestimation in the Northern Hemisphere and underestimation in the Southern Hemisphere compare to diagnostic data. For 30 years energy budget simulation, at global scale, CoLM2005 performs best in latent heat estimation, CoLM2014 performs best in sensible heat simulation, and CoLM2005 and CoLM2014 make similar performance in net radiation estimation but is still better than CLM. At regional and local scale, comparing to the four years average of flux tower observation, RMSE of CoLM2005 is the smallest for latent heat (9.717 W/m2) , and for sensible heat simulation, RMSE of CoLM2005 (13.048 W/m2) is slightly greater than CLM(10.767 W/m2) but still better than CoLM2014(30.085 W/m2). Our analysis shows that both CoLM 2005 and CoLM 2014 are able to reproduce comparable land surface water and energy fluxes. It implies that the ESM developed in Tsinghua University may use CoLM, a LSM developed and maintained in China, as the land surface component. .

A framework for global diurnally-resolved observations of Land Surface Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghent, Darren; Remedios, John

2014-05-01

Land surface temperature (LST) is the radiative skin temperature of the land, and is one of the key parameters in the physics of land-surface processes on regional and global scales. Being a key boundary condition in land surface models, which determine the surface to atmosphere fluxes of heat, water and carbon; thus influencing cloud cover, precipitation and atmospheric chemistry predictions within Global models, the requirement for global diurnal observations of LST is well founded. Earth Observation satellites offer an opportunity to obtain global coverage of LST, with the appropriate exploitation of data from multiple instruments providing a capacity to resolve the diurnal cycle on a global scale. Here we present a framework for the production of global, diurnally resolved, data sets for LST which is a key request from users of LST data. We will show how the sampling of both geostationary and low earth orbit data sets could conceptually be employed to build combined, multi-sensor, pole-to-pole data sets. Although global averages already exist for individual instruments and merging of geostationary based LST is already being addressed operationally (Freitas, et al., 2013), there are still a number of important challenges to overcome. In this presentation, we will consider three of the issues still open in LST remote sensing: 1) the consistency amongst retrievals; 2) the clear-sky bias and its quantification; and 3) merging methods and the propagation of uncertainties. For example, the combined use of both geostationary earth orbit (GEO) and low earth orbit (LEO) data, and both infra-red and microwave data are relatively unexplored but are necessary to make the most progress. Hence this study will suggest what is state-of-the-art and how considerable advances can be made, accounting also for recent improvements in techniques and data quality. The GlobTemperature initiative under the Data User Element of ESA's 4th Earth Observation Envelope Programme (2013-2017), which aims to support the wider uptake of global-scale satellite LST by the research and operational user communities, will be a particularly important element in the development and subsequent provision of global diurnal LST. References Freitas, S.C., Trigo, I.F., Macedo, J., Barroso, C., Silva, R., & Perdigao, R., 2013, Land surface temperature from multiple geostationary satellites, International Journal of Remote Sensing, 34, 3051-3068.

Transient Climate Effects of Large Impacts on Titan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zahnle, Kevin J.; Korycansky, Donald; Nixon, Conor A.

2013-01-01

Titan's thick atmosphere and volatile-rich surface cause it to respond to big impacts in a somewhat Earth-like manner. Here we construct a simple globally-averaged model that tracks the flow of energy through the environment in the weeks, years, and millenia after a big comet strikes Titan. The model Titan is endowed with 1.4 bars of N2 and 0.07 bars of CH4, methane lakes, a water ice crust, and enough methane underground to saturate the regolith to the surface. We find that a nominal Menrva impact is big enough to raise the surface temperature by approx. 80 K and to double the amount of methane in the atmosphere. The extra methane drizzles out of the atmosphere over hundreds of years. An upper-limit Menrva is just big enough to raise the surface to water's melting point. The putative Hotei impact (a possible 800-1200 km diameter basin, Soderblom et al., 2009) is big enough to raise the surface temperature to 350-400 K. Water rain must fall and global meltwaters might range between 50 m to more than a kilometer deep, depending on the details. Global meltwater oceans do not last more than a few decades or centuries at most, but are interesting to consider given Titan's organic wealth. Significant near-surface clathrate formation is possible as Titan cools but faces major kinetic barriers.

Characterizing Urban Heat Islands of Global Settlements Using MODIS and Nighttime Lights Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Ping; Imhoff, Marc L.; Wolfe, Robert E.; Bounoua, Lahouari

2010-01-01

Impervious surface area (ISA) from the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and land surface temperature (LST) from MODIS averaged over three annual cycles (2003-2005) are used in a spatial analysis to assess the urban heat island (UHI) signature on LST amplitude and its relationship to development intensity, size, and ecological setting for more than 3000 urban settlements over the globe. Development intensity zones based on fractional ISA are defined for each urban area emanating outward from the urban core to the nearby non-urban rural areas and used to stratify sampling for LST. Sampling is further constrained by biome type and elevation data to insure objective inter-comparisons between zones and between cities in different biomes. We find that the ecological context and settlement size significantly influence the amplitude of summer daytime UHI. Globally, an average of 3.8 C UHI is found in cities built in biomes dominated by forests; 1.9 C UHI in cities embedded in grass/shrub biomes, and only a weak UHI or sometimes an Urban Heat Sink (UHS) in cities in and and semi-arid biomes. Overall, the amplitude of the UHI is negatively correlated (R = -0.66) to the difference in vegetation density between urban and rural zones represented by MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Globally averaged, the daytime UHI amplitude for all settlement is 2.6 C in summer and 1.4 C in winter. Globally, the average summer daytime UHI is 4.7 C for settlements larger than 500 square kilometers, compared to 2.5 C for settlements smaller than 50 square kilometers and larger than 10 square kilometers. The stratification of cities by size indicates that the aggregated amount of ISA is the primary driver of UHI amplitude with variations between ecological contexts and latitudinal zones. More than 60% of the total LST variances is explained by ISA for urban settlements within forests at mid-to-high latitudes. This percentage will increase to more than 80% when only USA settlements are examined.

Global-scale modeling of groundwater recharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Döll, P.; Fiedler, K.

2007-11-01

Long-term average groundwater recharge, which is equivalent to renewable groundwater resources, is the major limiting factor for the sustainable use of groundwater. Compared to surface water resources, groundwater resources are more protected from pollution, and their use is less restricted by seasonal and inter-annual flow variations. To support water management in a globalized world, it is necessary to estimate groundwater recharge at the global scale. Here, we present a best estimate of global-scale long-term average diffuse groundwater recharge (i.e. renewable groundwater resources) that has been calculated by the most recent version of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model WGHM (spatial resolution of 0.5° by 0.5°, daily time steps). The estimate was obtained using two state-of-the art global data sets of gridded observed precipitation that we corrected for measurement errors, which also allowed to quantify the uncertainty due to these equally uncertain data sets. The standard WGHM groundwater recharge algorithm was modified for semi-arid and arid regions, based on independent estimates of diffuse groundwater recharge, which lead to an unbiased estimation of groundwater recharge in these regions. WGHM was tuned against observed long-term average river discharge at 1235 gauging stations by adjusting, individually for each basin, the partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration and total runoff. We estimate that global groundwater recharge was 12 666 km3/yr for the climate normal 1961-1990, i.e. 32% of total renewable water resources. In semi-arid and arid regions, mountainous regions, permafrost regions and in the Asian Monsoon region, groundwater recharge accounts for a lower fraction of total runoff, which makes these regions particularly vulnerable to seasonal and inter-annual precipitation variability and water pollution. Average per-capita renewable groundwater resources of countries vary between 8 m3/(capita yr) for Egypt to more than 1 million m3/(capita yr) for the Falkland Islands, the global average in the year 2000 being 2091 m3/(capita yr). Regarding the uncertainty of estimated groundwater resources due to the two precipitation data sets, deviation from the mean is less than 1% for 50 out of the 165 countries considered, between 1 and 5% for 62, between 5 and 20% for 43 and between 20 and 80% for 10 countries. Deviations at the grid scale can be much larger, ranging between 0 and 186 mm/yr.

Frequency content of sea surface height variability from internal gravity waves to mesoscale eddies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savage, Anna C.; Arbic, Brian K.; Richman, James G.; Shriver, Jay F.; Alford, Matthew H.; Buijsman, Maarten C.; Thomas Farrar, J.; Sharma, Hari; Voet, Gunnar; Wallcraft, Alan J.; Zamudio, Luis

2017-03-01

High horizontal-resolution (1/12.5° and 1/25°) 41-layer global simulations of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), forced by both atmospheric fields and the astronomical tidal potential, are used to construct global maps of sea surface height (SSH) variability. The HYCOM output is separated into steric and nonsteric and into subtidal, diurnal, semidiurnal, and supertidal frequency bands. The model SSH output is compared to two data sets that offer some geographical coverage and that also cover a wide range of frequencies—a set of 351 tide gauges that measure full SSH and a set of 14 in situ vertical profilers from which steric SSH can be calculated. Three of the global maps are of interest in planning for the upcoming Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) two-dimensional swath altimeter mission: (1) maps of the total and (2) nonstationary internal tidal signal (the latter calculated after removing the stationary internal tidal signal via harmonic analysis), with an average variance of 1.05 and 0.43 cm2, respectively, for the semidiurnal band, and (3) a map of the steric supertidal contributions, which are dominated by the internal gravity wave continuum, with an average variance of 0.15 cm2. Stationary internal tides (which are predictable), nonstationary internal tides (which will be harder to predict), and nontidal internal gravity waves (which will be very difficult to predict) may all be important sources of high-frequency "noise" that could mask lower frequency phenomena in SSH measurements made by the SWOT mission.

Assessing recent air-sea freshwater flux changes using a surface temperature-salinity space framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grist, Jeremy P.; Josey, Simon A.; Zika, Jan D.; Evans, Dafydd Gwyn; Skliris, Nikolaos

2016-12-01

A novel assessment of recent changes in air-sea freshwater fluxes has been conducted using a surface temperature-salinity framework applied to four atmospheric reanalyses. Viewed in the T-S space of the ocean surface, the complex pattern of the longitude-latitude space mean global Precipitation minus Evaporation (PME) reduces to three distinct regions. The analysis is conducted for the period 1979-2007 for which there is most evidence for a broadening of the (atmospheric) tropical belt. All four of the reanalyses display an increase in strength of the water cycle. The range of increase is between 2% and 30% over the period analyzed, with an average of 14%. Considering the average across the reanalyses, the water cycle changes are dominated by changes in tropical as opposed to mid-high latitude precipitation. The increases in the water cycle strength, are consistent in sign, but larger than in a 1% greenhouse gas run of the HadGEM3 climate model. In the model a shift of the precipitation/evaporation cells to higher temperatures is more evident, due to the much stronger global warming signal. The observed changes in freshwater fluxes appear to be reflected in changes in the T-S distribution of the Global Ocean. Specifically, across the diverse range of atmospheric reanalyses considered here, there was an acceleration of the hydrological cycle during 1979-2007 which led to a broadening of the ocean's salinity distribution. Finally, although the reanalyses indicate that the warm temperature tropical precipitation dominated water cycle change, ocean observations suggest that ocean processes redistributed the freshening to lower ocean temperatures.

Model predictions and visualization of the particle flux on the surface of Mars.

PubMed

Cucinotta, Francis A; Saganti, Premkumar B; Wilson, John W; Simonsen, Lisa C

2002-12-01

Model calculations of the particle flux on the surface of Mars due to the Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) can provide guidance on radiobiological research and shielding design studies in support of Mars exploration science objectives. Particle flux calculations for protons, helium ions, and heavy ions are reported for solar minimum and solar maximum conditions. These flux calculations include a description of the altitude variations on the Martian surface using the data obtained by the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) mission with its Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) instrument. These particle flux calculations are then used to estimate the average particle hits per cell at various organ depths of a human body in a conceptual shelter vehicle. The estimated particle hits by protons for an average location at skin depth on the Martian surface are about 10 to 100 particle-hits/cell/year and the particle hits by heavy ions are estimated to be 0.001 to 0.01 particle-hits/cell/year.

Our contaminated atmosphere: The danger of climate change, phases 1 and 2. [effect of atmospheric particulate matter on surface temperature and earth's radiation budget

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cimorelli, A. J.; House, F. B.

1974-01-01

The effects of increased concentrations of atmospheric particulate matter on average surface temperature and on the components of the earth's radiation budget are studied. An atmospheric model which couples particulate loading to surface temperature and to changes in the earth's radiation budget was used. A determination of the feasibility of using satellites to monitor the effect of increased atmospheric particulate concentrations is performed. It was found that: (1) a change in man-made particulate loading of a factor of 4 is sufficient to initiate an ice age; (2) variations in the global and hemispheric weighted averages of surface temperature, reflected radiant fluz and emitted radiant flux are nonlinear functions of particulate loading; and (3) a black satellite sphere meets the requirement of night time measurement sensitivity, but not the required day time sensitivity. A nonblack, spherical radiometer whose external optical properties are sensitive to either the reflected radiant fluz or the emitted radiant flux meets the observational sensitivity requirements.

Measurement of global oceanic winds from Seasat-SMMR and its comparison with Seasat-SASS and ALT derived winds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pandey, Prem C.

1987-01-01

The retrieval of ocean-surface wind speed from different channel combinations of Seasat SMMR measurements is demonstrated. Wind speeds derived using the best two channel subsets (10.6 H and 18.0 V) were compared with in situ data collected during the Joint Air-Sea Interaction (JASIN) experiment and an rms difference of 1.5 m/s was found. Global maps of wind speed generated with the present algorithm show that the averaged winds are arranged in well-ordered belts.

Modeling large-scale human alteration of land surface hydrology and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokhrel, Yadu N.; Felfelani, Farshid; Shin, Sanghoon; Yamada, Tomohito J.; Satoh, Yusuke

2017-12-01

Rapidly expanding human activities have profoundly affected various biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system over a broad range of scales, and freshwater systems are now amongst the most extensively altered ecosystems. In this study, we examine the human-induced changes in land surface water and energy balances and the associated climate impacts using a coupled hydrological-climate model framework which also simulates the impacts of human activities on the water cycle. We present three sets of analyses using the results from two model versions—one with and the other without considering human activities; both versions are run in offline and coupled mode resulting in a series of four experiments in total. First, we examine climate and human-induced changes in regional water balance focusing on the widely debated issue of the desiccation of the Aral Sea in central Asia. Then, we discuss the changes in surface temperature as a result of changes in land surface energy balance due to irrigation over global and regional scales. Finally, we examine the global and regional climate impacts of increased atmospheric water vapor content due to irrigation. Results indicate that the direct anthropogenic alteration of river flow in the Aral Sea basin resulted in the loss of 510 km3 of water during the latter half of the twentieth century which explains about half of the total loss of water from the sea. Results of irrigation-induced changes in surface energy balance suggest a significant surface cooling of up to 3.3 K over 1° grids in highly irrigated areas but a negligible change in land surface temperature when averaged over sufficiently large global regions. Results from the coupled model indicate a substantial change in 2 m air temperature and outgoing longwave radiation due to irrigation, highlighting the non-local (regional and global) implications of irrigation. These results provide important insights on the direct human alteration of land surface water and energy balances, highlighting the need to incorporate human activities such as irrigation into the framework of global climate models and Earth system models for better prediction of future changes under increasing human influence and continuing global climate change.

The water footprint of humanity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mekonnen, M. M.; Hoekstra, A. Y.

2011-12-01

This study quantifies and maps the water footprint (WF) of humanity at a high spatial resolution level. It reports on consumptive use of rainwater (green WF) and ground and surface water (blue WF) and volumes of water polluted (grey WF). Water footprints are estimated per nation from both a production and consumption perspective. International virtual water flows are estimated based on trade in agricultural and industrial commodities. The global WF in the period 1996-2005 was 9087 Gm3/yr (74% green, 11% blue, 15% grey). Agricultural production contributes 92%. About one fifth of the global WF relates to production for export. The total volume of international virtual water flows related to trade in agricultural and industrial products was 2320 Gm3/yr (68% green, 13% blue, 19% grey). The WF of the global average consumer was 1385 m3/yr. The average consumer in the US has a WF of 2842 m3/yr, while the average citizens in China and India have WFs of 1071 m3/yr and 1089 m3/yr, respectively. Consumption of cereal products gives the largest contribution to the WF of the average consumer (27%), followed by meat (22%) and milk products (7%). The volume and pattern of consumption and the WF per ton of product of the products consumed are the main factors determining the WF of a consumer. The study illustrates the global dimension of water consumption and pollution by showing that several countries heavily rely on foreign water resources and that many countries have significant impacts on water consumption and pollution elsewhere.

On the wintertime low bias of Northern Hemisphere carbon monoxide in global model studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stein, O.; Schultz, M. G.; Bouarar, I.; Clark, H.; Huijnen, V.; Gaudel, A.; George, M.; Clerbaux, C.

2014-01-01

The uncertainties in the global budget of carbon monoxide (CO) are assessed to explain causes for the long-standing issue of Northern Hemispheric wintertime underestimation of CO concentrations in global models. With a series of MOZART sensitivity simulations for the year 2008, the impacts from changing a variety of surface sources and sinks were analyzed. The model results were evaluated with monthly averages of surface station observations from the global CO monitoring network as well as with total columns observed from satellites and with vertical profiles from measurements on passenger aircraft. Our basic simulation using MACCity anthropogenic emissions underestimated Northern Hemispheric near-surface CO concentrations on average by more than 20 ppb from December to April with the largest bias over Europe of up to 75 ppb in January. An increase in global biomass burning or biogenic emissions of CO or volatile organic compounds (VOC) is not able to reduce the annual course of the model bias and yields too high concentrations over the Southern Hemisphere. Raising global annual anthropogenic emissions results in overestimations of surface concentrations in most regions all-year-round. Instead, our results indicate that anthropogenic emissions in the MACCity inventory are too low for the industrialized countries during winter and spring. Thus we found it necessary to adjust emissions seasonally with regionally varying scaling factors. Moreover, exchanging the original resistance-type dry deposition scheme with a parameterization for CO uptake by oxidation from soil bacteria and microbes reduced the boreal winter dry deposition fluxes and could partly correct for the model bias. When combining the modified dry deposition scheme with increased wintertime road traffic emissions over Europe and North America (factors up to 4.5 and 2, respectively) we were able to optimize the match to surface observations and to reduce the model bias significantly with respect to the satellite and aircraft observations. A reason for the apparent underestimation of emissions may be an exaggerated downward trend in the RCP8.5 scenario in these regions between 2000 and 2010, as this scenario was used to extrapolate the MACCity emissions from their base year 2000. This factor is potentially amplified by a lack of knowledge about the seasonality of emissions. A methane lifetime of 9.7 yr for our basic model and 9.8 yr for the optimized simulation agrees well with current estimates of global OH, but we cannot exclude a potential effect from errors in the geographical and seasonal distribution of OH concentrations. Finally, underestimated emissions from anthropogenic VOCs can also account for a small part of the missing CO concentrations.

Simulated responses of terrestrial aridity to black carbon and sulfate aerosols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lin, L.; Gettelman, A.; Xu, Y.

Aridity index (AI), defined as the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (PET), is a measure of the dryness of terrestrial climate. Global climate models generally project future decreases of AI (drying) associated with global warming scenarios driven by increasing greenhouse gas and declining aerosols. Given their different effects in the climate system, scattering and absorbing aerosols may affect AI differently. In this work, we explore the terrestrial aridity responses to anthropogenic black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO 4) aerosols with Community Earth System Model simulations. Positive BC radiative forcing decreases precipitation averaged over global land at a rate ofmore » 0.9%/°C of global mean surface temperature increase (moderate drying), while BC radiative forcing increases PET by 1.0%/°C (also drying). BC leads to a global decrease of 1.9%/°C in AI (drying). SO 4 forcing is negative and causes precipitation a decrease at a rate of 6.7%/°C cooling (strong drying). PET also decreases in response to SO 4 aerosol cooling by 6.3%/°C cooling (contributing to moistening). Thus, SO 4 cooling leads to a small decrease in AI (drying) by 0.4%/°C cooling. Despite the opposite effects on global mean temperature, BC and SO 4 both contribute to the twentieth century drying (AI decrease). Sensitivity test indicates that surface temperature and surface available energy changes dominate BC- and SO 4-induced PET changes.« less

Simulated responses of terrestrial aridity to black carbon and sulfate aerosols

DOE PAGES

Lin, L.; Gettelman, A.; Xu, Y.; ...

2016-01-27

Aridity index (AI), defined as the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (PET), is a measure of the dryness of terrestrial climate. Global climate models generally project future decreases of AI (drying) associated with global warming scenarios driven by increasing greenhouse gas and declining aerosols. Given their different effects in the climate system, scattering and absorbing aerosols may affect AI differently. In this work, we explore the terrestrial aridity responses to anthropogenic black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO 4) aerosols with Community Earth System Model simulations. Positive BC radiative forcing decreases precipitation averaged over global land at a rate ofmore » 0.9%/°C of global mean surface temperature increase (moderate drying), while BC radiative forcing increases PET by 1.0%/°C (also drying). BC leads to a global decrease of 1.9%/°C in AI (drying). SO 4 forcing is negative and causes precipitation a decrease at a rate of 6.7%/°C cooling (strong drying). PET also decreases in response to SO 4 aerosol cooling by 6.3%/°C cooling (contributing to moistening). Thus, SO 4 cooling leads to a small decrease in AI (drying) by 0.4%/°C cooling. Despite the opposite effects on global mean temperature, BC and SO 4 both contribute to the twentieth century drying (AI decrease). Sensitivity test indicates that surface temperature and surface available energy changes dominate BC- and SO 4-induced PET changes.« less

Satellite-based climate data records of surface solar radiation from the CM SAF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trentmann, Jörg; Cremer, Roswitha; Kothe, Steffen; Müller, Richard; Pfeifroth, Uwe

2017-04-01

The incoming surface solar radiation has been defined as an essential climate variable by GCOS. Long term monitoring of this part of the earth's energy budget is required to gain insights on the state and variability of the climate system. In addition, climate data sets of surface solar radiation have received increased attention over the recent years as an important source of information for solar energy assessments, for crop modeling, and for the validation of climate and weather models. The EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) is deriving climate data records (CDRs) from geostationary and polar-orbiting satellite instruments. Within the CM SAF these CDRs are accompanied by operational data at a short time latency to be used for climate monitoring. All data from the CM SAF is freely available via www.cmsaf.eu. Here we present the regional and the global climate data records of surface solar radiation from the CM SAF. The regional climate data record SARAH (Surface Solar Radiation Dataset - Heliosat, doi: 10.5676/EUM_SAF_CM/SARAH/V002) is based on observations from the series of Meteosat satellites. SARAH provides 30-min, daily- and monthly-averaged data of the effective cloud albedo, the solar irradiance (incl. spectral information), the direct solar radiation (horizontal and normal), and the sunshine duration from 1983 to 2015 for the full view of the Meteosat satellite (i.e, Europe, Africa, parts of South America, and the Atlantic ocean). The data sets are generated with a high spatial resolution of 0.05° allowing for detailed regional studies. The global climate data record CLARA (CM SAF Clouds, Albedo and Radiation dataset from AVHRR data, doi: 10.5676/EUM_SAF_CM/CLARA_AVHRR/V002) is based on observations from the series of AVHRR satellite instruments. CLARA provides daily- and monthly-averaged global data of the solar irradiance (SIS) from 1982 to 2015 with a spatial resolution of 0.25°. In addition to the solar surface radiation also the longwave surface radiation as well as surface albedo and numerous cloud properties are provided in CLARA. Here we provide an overview of the climate data records of the surface solar radiation and present the results of the quality assessment of both climate data records against available surface reference observations, e.g., from the BSRN and the GEBA data archive.

A Possible Strategy for the Use of Solar Climate Engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ackerman, T. P.; Russotto, R. D.; Kravitz, B.

2016-12-01

The Paris accord signals an international effort to hold global temperature change below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, raising the question of what role solar climate engineering (SCE) might play in meeting this objective. However, avoiding continuing, long-term application of SCE with an ever increasing magnitude requires an "exit strategy", i. e., a plan to phase out SCE by removing stabilizing and removing CO2. Here we present results from a series of climate model runs that combine both CO2 and SCE transient forcings over a 200-year period (2000 to 2200). Our results confirm past results that maintaining both global surface air temperature (TA) and precipitation (P) at baseline levels is not feasible. They also demonstrate a quasi-linear relationship between changes in SCE and changes in P. Zonally-averaged changes in TA show, as expected, polar amplification of warming, but that enhancement scales uniformly with the change in global TA. We draw several conclusions from our results: (1) There are plausible scenarios in which SCE can be part of an integrated strategy to meet the temperature goals of the Paris accord. (2) Applying transient forcings can be used to maintain some, but not all, globally-averaged climate system variables (such as TA or P) at a prescribed baseline level. That globally-averaged stability, however, is achieved by averaging over changes in spatial distributions. These spatial changes create difficult issues regarding prediction of regional climate changes due to SCE and potential impacts on regional societies. (3) Our inability to predict interannual climate variability on the annual-to-decadal time scale suggests that it may take a decade or more to provide reliable detection and attribution of the global climate impacts of SCE following its inception (the so-called time of emergence). Furthermore, it will take much longer to determine regional impacts.

The Leicester AATSR Global Analyser (LAGA) - Giving Young Students the Opportunity to Examine Space Observations of Global Climate-Related Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llewellyn-Jones, David; Good, Simon; Corlett, Gary

A pc-based analysis package has been developed, for the dual purposes of, firstly, providing ‘quick-look' capability to research workers inspecting long time-series of global satellite datasets of Sea-surface Temperature (SST); and, secondly, providing an introduction for students, either undergraduates, or advanced high-school students to the characteristics of commonly used analysis techniques for large geophysical data-sets from satellites. Students can also gain insight into the behaviour of some basic climate-related large-scale or global processes. The package gives students immediate access to up to 16 years of continuous global SST data, mainly from the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer, currently flying on ESA's Envisat satellite. The data are available and are presented in the form of monthly averages and spatial averaged to half-degree or one-sixth degree longitude-latitude grids. There are simple button-operated facilities for defining and calculating box-averages; producing time-series of such averages; defining and displaying transects and their evolution over time; and the examination anomalous behaviour by displaying the difference between observed values and values derived from climatological means. By using these facilities a student rapidly gains familiarity with such processes as annual variability, the El Nĩo effect, as well as major current systems n such as the Gulf Stream and other climatically important phenomena. In fact, the student is given immediate insights into the basic methods of examining geophysical data in a research context, without needing to acquire special analysis skills are go trough lengthy data retrieval and preparation procedures which are more generally required, as precursors to serious investigation, in the research laboratory. This software package, called the Leicester AAATSR Global Analyser (LAGA), is written in a well-known and widely used analysis language and the package can be run by using software that is readily available free-of-charge.

Performance assessment of different day-of-the-year-based models for estimating global solar radiation - Case study: Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan, Gasser E.; Youssef, M. Elsayed; Ali, Mohamed A.; Mohamed, Zahraa E.; Shehata, Ali I.

2016-11-01

Different models are introduced to predict the daily global solar radiation in different locations but there is no specific model based on the day of the year is proposed for many locations around the world. In this study, more than 20 years of measured data for daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface are used to develop and validate seven models to estimate the daily global solar radiation by day of the year for ten cities around Egypt as a case study. Moreover, the generalization capability for the best models is examined all over the country. The regression analysis is employed to calculate the coefficients of different suggested models. The statistical indicators namely, RMSE, MABE, MAPE, r and R2 are calculated to evaluate the performance of the developed models. Based on the validation with the available data, the results show that the hybrid sine and cosine wave model and 4th order polynomial model have the best performance among other suggested models. Consequently, these two models coupled with suitable coefficients can be used for estimating the daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface for each city, and also for all the locations around the studied region. It is believed that the established models in this work are applicable and significant for quick estimation for the average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface with higher accuracy. The values of global solar radiation generated by this approach can be utilized in the design and estimation of the performance of different solar applications.

Climatic Consequences and Agricultural Impact of Regional Nuclear Conflict

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toon, O. B.; Robock, A.; Mills, M. J.; Xia, L.

2013-05-01

A nuclear war between India and Pakistan, with each country using 50 Hiroshima-sized atom bombs as airbursts on urban areas, would inject smoke from the resulting fires into the stratosphere.This could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history and global-scale ozone depletion, with enhanced ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching the surface.Simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), run at higher vertical and horizontal resolution than a previous simulation with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE, and incorporating ozone chemistry for the first time, show a longer stratospheric residence time for smoke and hence a longer-lasting climate response, with global average surface air temperatures still 1.1 K below normal and global average precipitation 4% below normal after a decade.The erythemal dose from the enhanced UV radiation would greatly increase, in spite of enhanced absorption by the remaining smoke, with the UV index more than 3 units higher in the summer midlatitudes, even after a decade. Scenarios of changes in temperature, precipitation, and downward shortwave radiation from the ModelE and WACCM simulations, applied to the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop model for winter wheat, rice, soybeans, and maize by perturbing observed time series with anomalies from the regional nuclear war simulations, produce decreases of 10-50% in yield averaged over a decade, with larger decreases in the first several years, over the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The impact of the nuclear war simulated here, using much less than 1% of the global nuclear arsenal, would be devastating to world agricultural production and trade, possibly sentencing a billion people now living marginal existences to starvation.The continued environmental threat of the use of even a small number of nuclear weapons must be considered in nuclear policy deliberations in Russia, the U.S., and the rest of the world.

Climatic Consequences and Agricultural Impact of Regional Nuclear Conflict

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robock, Alan; Mills, Michael; Toon, Owen Brian; Xia, Lili

2013-04-01

A nuclear war between India and Pakistan, with each country using 50 Hiroshima-sized atom bombs as airbursts on urban areas, would inject smoke from the resulting fires into the stratosphere. This could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history and global-scale ozone depletion, with enhanced ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching the surface. Simulations with the NCAR Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), run at higher vertical and horizontal resolution than a previous simulation with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE, and incorporating ozone chemistry for the first time, show a longer stratospheric residence time for smoke and hence a longer-lasting climate response, with global average surface air temperatures still 1.1 K below normal and global average precipitation 4% below normal after a decade. The erythemal dose from the enhanced UV radiation would greatly increase, in spite of enhanced absorption by the remaining smoke, with the UV index more than 3 units higher in the summer midlatitudes, even after a decade. Scenarios of changes in temperature, precipitation, and downward shortwave radiation from the ModelE and WACCM simulations, applied to the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop model for winter wheat, rice, soybeans, and maize by perturbing observed time series with anomalies from the regional nuclear war simulations, produce decreases of 10-50% in yield averaged over a decade, with larger decreases in the first several years, over several regions in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The impact of the nuclear war simulated here, using much less than 1% of the global nuclear arsenal, would be devastating to world agricultural production and trade, possibly sentencing a billion people now living marginal existences to starvation. The continued environmental threat of the use of even a small number of nuclear weapons must be considered in nuclear policy deliberations in Russia, the U.S., and the rest of the world

Melting in Martian Snowbanks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zent, A. P.; Sutter, B.

2005-01-01

Precipitation as snow is an emerging paradigm for understanding water flow on Mars, which gracefully resolves many outstanding uncertainties in climatic and geomorphic interpretation. Snowfall does not require a powerful global greenhouse to effect global precipitation. It has long been assumed that global average temperatures greater than 273K are required to sustain liquid water at the surface via rainfall and runoff. Unfortunately, the best greenhouse models to date predict global mean surface temperatures early in Mars' history that differ little from today's, unless exceptional conditions are invoked. Snowfall however, can occur at temperatures less than 273K; all that is required is saturation of the atmosphere. At global temperatures lower than 273K, H2O would have been injected into the atmosphere by impacts and volcanic eruptions during the Noachian, and by obliquity-driven climate oscillations more recently. Snow cover can accumulate for a considerable period, and be available for melting during local spring and summer, unless sublimation rates are sufficient to remove the entire snowpack. We decided to explore the physics that controls the melting of snow in the high-latitude regions of Mars to understand the frequency and drainage of snowmelt in the high martian latitudes.

COMBINED ANALYSIS OF THORIUM AND FAST NEUTRON DATA AT THE LUNAR SURFACE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O. GASNAULT; W. FELDMAN; ET AL

2001-01-01

The global distribution of the radioactive elements (U, K, Th) at the lunar surface is an important parameter for an understanding of lunar evolution, because they have provided continuous heat over the lifetime of the Moon. Today, only the thorium distribution is available for the whole lunar surface [1]. Another key parameter that characterize the surface of the Moon is the presence of mare basalts. These basalts are concentrated on the nearside and are represented by materials with high-Fe content, sometimes associated with high-Ti. We demonstrated elsewhere that the fast neutron measurement made by Lunar Prospector is representative of themore » average soil atomic mass [2]. is primarily dominated by Fe and Ti in basaltic terranes, and therefore the map of the fast neutrons provides a good delineation of mare basalts. We focus here on the correlated variations of thorium abundances and fast neutron fluxes averaged over areas of 360 km in diameter, in an attempt to provide a better understanding of the thorium emplacement on the surface of the Moon.« less

Global Radiative Forcing of Coupled Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols in a Unified General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liao, Hong; Seinfeld, John H.; Adams, Peter J.; Mickley, Loretta J.

2008-01-01

Global simulations of sea salt and mineral dust aerosols are integrated into a previously developed unified general circulation model (GCM), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM II', that simulates coupled tropospheric ozone-NOx-hydrocarbon chemistry and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, and secondary organic carbon aerosols. The fully coupled gas-aerosol unified GCM allows one to evaluate the extent to which global burdens, radiative forcing, and eventually climate feedbacks of ozone and aerosols are influenced by gas-aerosol chemical interactions. Estimated present-day global burdens of sea salt and mineral dust are 6.93 and 18.1 Tg with lifetimes of 0.4 and 3.9 days, respectively. The GCM is applied to estimate current top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiative forcing by tropospheric ozone and all natural and anthropogenic aerosol components. The global annual mean value of the radiative forcing by tropospheric ozone is estimated to be +0.53 W m(sup -2) at TOA and +0.07 W m(sup -2) at the Earth's surface. Global, annual average TOA and surface radiative forcing by all aerosols are estimated as -0.72 and -4.04 W m(sup -2), respectively. While the predicted highest aerosol cooling and heating at TOA are -10 and +12 W m(sup -2) respectively, surface forcing can reach values as high as -30 W m(sup -2), mainly caused by the absorption by black carbon, mineral dust, and OC. We also estimate the effects of chemistry-aerosol coupling on forcing estimates based on currently available understanding of heterogeneous reactions on aerosols. Through altering the burdens of sulfate, nitrate, and ozone, heterogeneous reactions are predicted to change the global mean TOA forcing of aerosols by 17% and influence global mean TOA forcing of tropospheric ozone by 15%.

Aerosol-Induced Radiative Flux Changes Off the United States Mid-Atlantic Coast: Comparison of Values Calculated from Sunphotometer and In Situ Data with Those Measured by Airborne Pyranometer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, P. B.; Livingston, J. M.; Hignett, P.; Kinne, S.; Wong, J.; Chien, A.; Bergstrom, R.; Durkee, P.; Hobbs, P. V.

2000-01-01

The Tropospheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing Observational Experiment (TARFOX) measured a variety of aerosol radiative effects (including flux changes) while simultaneously measuring the chemical, physical, and optical properties of the responsible aerosol particles. Here we use TARFOX-determined aerosol and surface properties to compute shortwave radiative flux changes for a variety of aerosol situations, with midvisible optical depths ranging from 0.06 to 0.55. We calculate flux changes by several techniques with varying degrees of sophistication, in part to investigate the sensitivity of results to computational approach. We then compare computed flux changes to those determined from aircraft measurements. Calculations using several approaches yield downward and upward flux changes that agree with measurements. The agreement demonstrates closure (i.e. consistency) among the TARFOX-derived aerosol properties, modeling techniques, and radiative flux measurements. Agreement between calculated and measured downward flux changes is best when the aerosols are modeled as moderately absorbing (midvisible single-scattering albedos between about 0.89 and 0.93), in accord with independent measurements of the TARPOX aerosol. The calculated values for instantaneous daytime upwelling flux changes are in the range +14 to +48 W/sq m for midvisible optical depths between 0.2 and 0.55. These values are about 30 to 100 times the global-average direct forcing expected for the global-average sulfate aerosol optical depth of 0.04. The reasons for the larger flux changes in TARFOX include the relatively large optical depths and the focus on cloud-free, daytime conditions over the dark ocean surface. These are the conditions that produce major aerosol radiative forcing events and contribute to any global-average climate effect.

Global health benefits of mitigating ozone pollution with methane emission controls.

PubMed

West, J Jason; Fiore, Arlene M; Horowitz, Larry W; Mauzerall, Denise L

2006-03-14

Methane (CH(4)) contributes to the growing global background concentration of tropospheric ozone (O(3)), an air pollutant associated with premature mortality. Methane and ozone are also important greenhouse gases. Reducing methane emissions therefore decreases surface ozone everywhere while slowing climate warming, but although methane mitigation has been considered to address climate change, it has not for air quality. Here we show that global decreases in surface ozone concentrations, due to methane mitigation, result in substantial and widespread decreases in premature human mortality. Reducing global anthropogenic methane emissions by 20% beginning in 2010 would decrease the average daily maximum 8-h surface ozone by approximately 1 part per billion by volume globally. By using epidemiologic ozone-mortality relationships, this ozone reduction is estimated to prevent approximately 30,000 premature all-cause mortalities globally in 2030, and approximately 370,000 between 2010 and 2030. If only cardiovascular and respiratory mortalities are considered, approximately 17,000 global mortalities can be avoided in 2030. The marginal cost-effectiveness of this 20% methane reduction is estimated to be approximately 420,000 US dollars per avoided mortality. If avoided mortalities are valued at 1 US dollars million each, the benefit is approximately 240 US dollars per tone of CH(4) ( approximately 12 US dollars per tone of CO(2) equivalent), which exceeds the marginal cost of the methane reduction. These estimated air pollution ancillary benefits of climate-motivated methane emission reductions are comparable with those estimated previously for CO(2). Methane mitigation offers a unique opportunity to improve air quality globally and can be a cost-effective component of international ozone management, bringing multiple benefits for air quality, public health, agriculture, climate, and energy.

Shortwave radiative forcing, rapid adjustment, and feedback to the surface by sulfate geoengineering: analysis of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project G4 scenario

DOE PAGES

Kashimura, Hiroki; Abe, Manabu; Watanabe, Shingo; ...

2017-03-08

This paper evaluates the forcing, rapid adjustment, and feedback of net shortwave radiation at the surface in the G4 experiment of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project by analysing outputs from six participating models. G4 involves injection of 5 Tg yr -1 of SO 2, a sulfate aerosol precursor, into the lower stratosphere from year 2020 to 2069 against a background scenario of RCP4.5. A single-layer atmospheric model for shortwave radiative transfer is used to estimate the direct forcing of solar radiation management (SRM), and rapid adjustment and feedbacks from changes in the water vapour amount, cloud amount, and surface albedo (compared with RCP4.5). The analysismore » shows that the globally and temporally averaged SRM forcing ranges from -3.6 to -1.6 W m -2, depending on the model. The sum of the rapid adjustments and feedback effects due to changes in the water vapour and cloud amounts increase the downwelling shortwave radiation at the surface by approximately 0.4 to 1.5 W m -2 and hence weaken the effect of SRM by around 50 %. The surface albedo changes decrease the net shortwave radiation at the surface; it is locally strong (~-4 W m -2) in snow and sea ice melting regions, but minor for the global average. The analyses show that the results of the G4 experiment, which simulates sulfate geoengineering, include large inter-model variability both in the direct SRM forcing and the shortwave rapid adjustment from change in the cloud amount, and imply a high uncertainty in modelled processes of sulfate aerosols and clouds.« less

Comparison of Radiative Energy Flows in Observational Datasets and Climate Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raschke, Ehrhard; Kinne, Stefan; Rossow, William B.; Stackhouse, Paul W. Jr.; Wild, Martin

2016-01-01

This study examines radiative flux distributions and local spread of values from three major observational datasets (CERES, ISCCP, and SRB) and compares them with results from climate modeling (CMIP3). Examinations of the spread and differences also differentiate among contributions from cloudy and clear-sky conditions. The spread among observational datasets is in large part caused by noncloud ancillary data. Average differences of at least 10Wm(exp -2) each for clear-sky downward solar, upward solar, and upward infrared fluxes at the surface demonstrate via spatial difference patterns major differences in assumptions for atmospheric aerosol, solar surface albedo and surface temperature, and/or emittance in observational datasets. At the top of the atmosphere (TOA), observational datasets are less influenced by the ancillary data errors than at the surface. Comparisons of spatial radiative flux distributions at the TOA between observations and climate modeling indicate large deficiencies in the strength and distribution of model-simulated cloud radiative effects. Differences are largest for lower-altitude clouds over low-latitude oceans. Global modeling simulates stronger cloud radiative effects (CRE) by +30Wmexp -2) over trade wind cumulus regions, yet smaller CRE by about -30Wm(exp -2) over (smaller in area) stratocumulus regions. At the surface, climate modeling simulates on average about 15Wm(exp -2) smaller radiative net flux imbalances, as if climate modeling underestimates latent heat release (and precipitation). Relative to observational datasets, simulated surface net fluxes are particularly lower over oceanic trade wind regions (where global modeling tends to overestimate the radiative impact of clouds). Still, with the uncertainty in noncloud ancillary data, observational data do not establish a reliable reference.

Improved simulation of group averaged CO2 surface concentrations using GEOS-Chem and fluxes from VEGAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Z. H.; Zhu, J.; Zeng, N.

2013-01-01

CO2 measurements have been combined with simulated CO2 distributions from a transport model in order to produce the optimal estimates of CO2 surface fluxes in inverse modeling. However one persistent problem in using model-observation comparisons for this goal relates to the issue of compatibility. Observations at a single site reflect all underlying processes of various scales that usually cannot be fully resolved by model simulations at the grid points nearest the site due to lack of spatial or temporal resolution or missing processes in models. In this article we group site observations of multiple stations according to atmospheric mixing regimes and surface characteristics. The group averaged values of CO2 concentration from model simulations and observations are used to evaluate the regional model results. Using the group averaged measurements of CO2 reduces the noise of individual stations. The difference of group averaged values between observation and modeled results reflects the uncertainties of the large scale flux in the region where the grouped stations are. We compared the group averaged values between model results with two biospheric fluxes from the model Carnegie-Ames-Stanford-Approach (CASA) and VEgetation-Global-Atmosphere-Soil (VEGAS) and observations to evaluate the regional model results. Results show that the modeling group averaged values of CO2 concentrations in all regions with fluxes from VEGAS have significant improvements for most regions. There is still large difference between two model results and observations for grouped average values in North Atlantic, Indian Ocean, and South Pacific Tropics. This implies possible large uncertainties in the fluxes there.

Global and local skin friction diagnostics from TSP surface patterns on an underwater cylinder in crossflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miozzi, Massimo; Capone, Alessandro; Di Felice, Fabio; Klein, Christian; Liu, Tianshu

2016-12-01

A systematical method is formulated for extracting skin-friction fields from Temperature Sensitive Paint (TSP) images in the sense of time-averaging and phase-averaging. The method is applied to an underwater cylinder in crossflow at two subcritical regimes (Re = 72 000 and 144 000). TSP maps are decomposed in a time-averaged, a phase-averaged, and a random component. The asymptotic form of the energy equation at the wall provides an Euler-Lagrange equation set that is solved numerically to gain the relative skin friction time- and phase-averaged fields from the TSP surface temperature maps. The comparison of the time averaged relative skin-friction profiles with the literature data shows an excellent agreement on the whole laminar boundary layer up to the laminar separation line. Downstream of separation, time averaged results identify the secondary reattachment/separation events, which are lost in the available literature data. The periodic behavior of the skin-friction is taken, describing how the laminar separation bubble evolves by providing the time history of the laminar separation line and of the secondary reattachment/separation over the entire vortex shedding period. Instantaneous skin friction maps reveal the existence of coherent structures by capturing their footprint on the cylinder's surface. An array of Π-shaped traces marks the existence of counter-rotating, streamwise-oriented vortices just before the laminar separation line. Their interaction with the laminar boundary layer and with the separation line is briefly described. An example of the intermittent excerpt of their influence through the laminar separation line is reported.

The impact of reforestation in the northeast United States on precipitation and surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Allyson

Since the 1920s, forest coverage in the northeastern United States has recovered from disease, clearing for agricultural and urban development, and the demands of the timber industry. Such a dramatic change in ground cover can influence heat and moisture fluxes to the atmosphere, as measured in altered landscapes in Australia, Israel, and the Amazon. In this study, the impacts of recent reforestation in the northeastern United States on summertime precipitation and surface temperature were quantified by comparing average modern values to 1950s values. Weak positive (negative) relationships between reforestation and average monthly precipitation and daily minimum temperatures (average daily maximum surface temperature) were found. There was no relationship between reforestation and average surface temperature. Results of the observational analysis were compared with results obtained from reforestation scenarios simulated with the BUGS5 global climate model. The single difference between the model runs was the amount of forest coverage in the northeast United States; three levels of forest were defined - a grassland state, with 0% forest coverage, a completely forested state, with approximately 100% forest coverage, and a control state, with forest coverage closely resembling modern forest coverage. The three simulations were compared, and had larger magnitude average changes in precipitation and in all temperature variables. The difference in magnitudes between the model simulations observations was much larger than the difference in the amount of reforestation in each case. Additionally, unlike in observations, a negative relationship was found between average daily minimum temperature and amount of forest coverage, implying that additional factors influence temperature and precipitation in the real world that are not accounted for in the model.

Linkages Between Global Vegetation and Climate: An Analysis Based on NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Data. Degree awarded by Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Los, Sietse Oene

1998-01-01

A monthly global 1 degree by 1 degree data set from 1982 until 1990 was derived from data collected by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer on board the NOAA 7, 9, and 11 satellites. This data set was used to study the interactions between variations in climate and variations in the "greenness" of vegetation. Studies with the Colorado State University atmospheric general circulation model coupled to the Simple Biosphere model showed a large sensitivity of the hydrological balance to changes in vegetation at low latitudes. The depletion of soil moisture as a result of increased vegetation density provided a negative feedback in an otherwise positive association between increased vegetation, increased evaporation, and increased precipitation proposed by Charney and coworkers. Analysis of climate data showed, at temperate to high latitudes, a positive association between variation in land surface temperature, sea surface temperature and vegetation greenness. At low latitudes the data indicated a positive association between variations in sea surface temperature, rainfall and vegetation greenness. The variations in mid- to high latitude temperatures affected the global average greenness and this could provide an explanation for the increased carbon uptake by the terrestrial surface over the past couple of decades.

Mechanisms Controlling Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature Determined From a State Estimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponte, R. M.; Piecuch, C. G.

2018-04-01

Global mean sea surface temperature (T¯) is a variable of primary interest in studies of climate variability and change. The temporal evolution of T¯ can be influenced by surface heat fluxes (F¯) and by diffusion (D¯) and advection (A¯) processes internal to the ocean, but quantifying the contribution of these different factors from data alone is prone to substantial uncertainties. Here we derive a closed T¯ budget for the period 1993-2015 based on a global ocean state estimate, which is an exact solution of a general circulation model constrained to most extant ocean observations through advanced optimization methods. The estimated average temperature of the top (10-m thick) level in the model, taken to represent T¯, shows relatively small variability at most time scales compared to F¯, D¯, or A¯, reflecting the tendency for largely balancing effects from all the latter terms. The seasonal cycle in T¯ is mostly determined by small imbalances between F¯ and D¯, with negligible contributions from A¯. While D¯ seems to simply damp F¯ at the annual period, a different dynamical role for D¯ at semiannual period is suggested by it being larger than F¯. At periods longer than annual, A¯ contributes importantly to T¯ variability, pointing to the direct influence of the variable ocean circulation on T¯ and mean surface climate.

Global Estimates of Ambient Fine Particulate Matter Concentrations from Satellite-Based Aerosol Optical Depth: Development and Application

PubMed Central

van Donkelaar, Aaron; Martin, Randall V.; Brauer, Michael; Kahn, Ralph; Levy, Robert; Verduzco, Carolyn; Villeneuve, Paul J.

2010-01-01

Background Epidemiologic and health impact studies of fine particulate matter with diameter < 2.5 μm (PM2.5) are limited by the lack of monitoring data, especially in developing countries. Satellite observations offer valuable global information about PM2.5 concentrations. Objective In this study, we developed a technique for estimating surface PM2.5 concentrations from satellite observations. Methods We mapped global ground-level PM2.5 concentrations using total column aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and MISR (Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite instruments and coincident aerosol vertical profiles from the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model. Results We determined that global estimates of long-term average (1 January 2001 to 31 December 2006) PM2.5 concentrations at approximately 10 km × 10 km resolution indicate a global population-weighted geometric mean PM2.5 concentration of 20 μg/m3. The World Health Organization Air Quality PM2.5 Interim Target-1 (35 μg/m3 annual average) is exceeded over central and eastern Asia for 38% and for 50% of the population, respectively. Annual mean PM2.5 concentrations exceed 80 μg/m3 over eastern China. Our evaluation of the satellite-derived estimate with ground-based in situ measurements indicates significant spatial agreement with North American measurements (r = 0.77; slope = 1.07; n = 1057) and with noncoincident measurements elsewhere (r = 0.83; slope = 0.86; n = 244). The 1 SD of uncertainty in the satellite-derived PM2.5 is 25%, which is inferred from the AOD retrieval and from aerosol vertical profile errors and sampling. The global population-weighted mean uncertainty is 6.7 μg/m3. Conclusions Satellite-derived total-column AOD, when combined with a chemical transport model, provides estimates of global long-term average PM2.5 concentrations. PMID:20519161

Comparison between assimilated and non-assimilated experiments of the MACCii global reanalysis near surface ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsikerdekis, Athanasios; Katragou, Eleni; Zanis, Prodromos; Melas, Dimitrios; Eskes, Henk; Flemming, Johannes; Huijnen, Vincent; Inness, Antje; Kapsomenakis, Ioannis; Schultz, Martin; Stein, Olaf; Zerefos, Christos

2014-05-01

In this work we evaluate near surface ozone concentrations of the MACCii global reanalysis using measurements from the EMEP and AIRBASE database. The eight-year long reanalysis of atmospheric composition data covering the period 2003-2010 was constructed as part of the FP7-funded Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate project by assimilating satellite data into a global model and data assimilation system (Inness et al., 2013). The study mainly focuses in the differences between the assimilated and the non-assimilated experiments and aims to identify and quantify any improvements achieved by adding data assimilation to the system. Results are analyzed in eight European sub-regions and region-specific Taylor plots illustrate the evaluation and the overall predictive skill of each experiment. The diurnal and annual cycles of near surface ozone are evaluated for both experiments. Furthermore ozone exposure indices for crop growth (AOT40), human health (SOMO35) and the number of days that 8-hour ozone averages exceeded 60ppb and 90ppb have been calculated for each station based on both observed and simulated data. Results indicate mostly improvement of the assimilated experiment with respect to the high near surface ozone concentrations, the diurnal cycle and range and the bias in comparison to the non-assimilated experiment. The limitations of the comparison between assimilated and non-assimilated experiments for near surface ozone are also discussed.

Comparison of land surface humidity between observations and CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunn, Robert J. H.; Willett, Kate M.; Ciavarella, Andrew; Stott, Peter A.

2017-08-01

We compare the latest observational land surface humidity dataset, HadISDH, with the latest generation of climate models extracted from the CMIP5 archive and the ERA-Interim reanalysis over the period 1973 to present. The globally averaged behaviour of HadISDH and ERA-Interim are very similar in both humidity measures and air temperature, on decadal and interannual timescales. The global average relative humidity shows a gradual increase from 1973 to 2000, followed by a steep decline in recent years. The observed specific humidity shows a steady increase in the global average during the early period but in the later period it remains approximately constant. None of the CMIP5 models or experiments capture the observed behaviour of the relative or specific humidity over the entire study period. When using an atmosphere-only model, driven by observed sea surface temperatures and radiative forcing changes, the behaviour of regional average temperature and specific humidity are better captured, but there is little improvement in the relative humidity. Comparing the observed climatologies with those from historical model runs shows that the models are generally cooler everywhere, are drier and less saturated in the tropics and extra-tropics, and have comparable moisture levels but are more saturated in the high latitudes. The spatial pattern of linear trends is relatively similar between the models and HadISDH for temperature and specific humidity, but there are large differences for relative humidity, with less moistening shown in the models over the tropics and very little at high latitudes. The observed drying in mid-latitudes is present at a much lower magnitude in the CMIP5 models. Relationships between temperature and humidity anomalies (T-q and T-rh) show good agreement for specific humidity between models and observations, and between the models themselves, but much poorer for relative humidity. The T-q correlation from the models is more steeply positive than the observations in all regions, and this over-correlation may be due to missing processes in the models. The observed temporal behaviour appears to be a robust climate feature rather than observational error. It has been previously documented and is theoretically consistent with faster warming rates over land compared to oceans. Thus, the poor replication in the models, especially in the atmosphere-only model, leads to questions over future projections of impacts related to changes in surface relative humidity. It also precludes any formal detection and attribution assessment.

The effects of aircraft on climate and pollution. Part II: 20-year impacts of exhaust from all commercial aircraft worldwide treated individually at the subgrid scale.

PubMed

Jacobson, M Z; Wilkerson, J T; Naiman, A D; Lele, S K

2013-01-01

This study examines the 20-year impacts of emissions from all commercial aircraft flights worldwide on climate, cloudiness, and atmospheric composition. Aircraft emissions from each individual flight worldwide were modeled to evolve from the subgrid to grid scale with the global model described and evaluated in Part I of this study. Simulations with and without aircraft emissions were run for 20 years. Aircraft emissions were found to be responsible for -6% of Arctic surface global warming to date, -1.3% of total surface global warming, and -4% of global upper tropospheric warming. Arctic warming due to aircraft slightly decreased Arctic sea ice area. Longer simulations should result in more warming due to the further increase in CO2. Aircraft increased atmospheric stability below cruise altitude and decreased it above cruise altitude. The increase in stability decreased cumulus convection in favor of increased stratiform cloudiness. Aircraft increased total cloud fraction on average. Aircraft increased surface and upper tropospheric ozone by -0.4% and -2.5%, respectively and surface and upper-tropospheric peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) by -0.1% and -5%, respectively. Aircraft emissions increased tropospheric OH, decreasing column CO and CH4 by -1.7% and -0.9%, respectively. Aircraft emissions increased human mortality worldwide by -620 (-240 to 4770) deaths per year, with half due to ozone and the rest to particulate matter less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter (PM2.5).

An Economical Analytical Equation for the Integrated Vertical Overlap of Cumulus and Stratus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Sungsu

2018-03-01

By extending the previously proposed heuristic parameterization, the author derived an analytical equation computing the overlap areas between the precipitation (or radiation) areas and the cloud areas in a cloud system consisting of cumulus and stratus. The new analytical equation is accurate and much more efficient than the previous heuristic equation, which suffers from the truncation error in association with the digitalization of the overlap areas. Global test simulations with the new analytical formula in an offline mode showed that the maximum cumulus overlap simulates more surface precipitation flux than the random cumulus overlap. On the other hand, the maximum stratus overlap simulates less surface precipitation flux than random stratus overlap, which is due to the increase in the evaporation rate of convective precipitation from the random to maximum stratus overlap. The independent precipitation approximation (IPA) marginally decreases the surface precipitation flux, implying that IPA works well with other parameterizations. In contrast to the net production rate of precipitation and surface precipitation flux that increase when the cumulus and stratus are maximally and randomly overlapped, respectively, the global mean net radiative cooling and longwave cloud radiative forcing (LWCF) increase when the cumulus and stratus are randomly overlapped. On the global average, the vertical cloud overlap exerts larger impacts on the precipitation flux than on the radiation flux. The radiation scheme taking the subgrid variability of water vapor between the cloud and clear portions into account substantially increases the global mean LWCF in tropical deep convection and midlatitude storm track regions.

Spatial distribution and source apportionment of PFASs in surface sediments from five lake regions, China.

PubMed

Qi, Yanjie; Huo, Shouliang; Xi, Beidou; Hu, Shibin; Zhang, Jingtian; He, Zhuoshi

2016-03-07

Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) have been found in environment globally. However, studies on PFAS occurrence in sediments of lakes or reservoirs remain relatively scarce. In this study, two hundred and sixty-two surface sediment samples were collected from forty-eight lakes and two reservoirs all over China. Average PFAS concentrations in surface sediments from each lake or reservoir varied from 0.086 ng/g dw to 5.79 ng/g dw with an average of 1.15 ng/g dw. Among five lake regions, average PFAS concentrations for the lakes from Eastern Plain Region were the highest. Perfluorooctanoic acid, perfluoroundecanoic acid and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) were the predominant PFASs in surface sediments. The significant positive correlations between PFAS concentrations and total organic carbon, total nitrogen and total phosphorus contents in sediments revealed the influences of sedimentary characteristics on PFAS occurrence. A two-dimensional hierarchical cluster analysis heat map was depicted to analyze the possible origins of sediments and individual PFAS. The food-packaging, textile, electroplating, firefighting and semiconductor industry emission sources and the precious metals and coating industry emission sources were identified as the main sources by two receptor models, with contributions of 77.7 and 22.3% to the total concentrations of C4-C14- perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids and PFOS, respectively.

Spatial distribution and source apportionment of PFASs in surface sediments from five lake regions, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Yanjie; Huo, Shouliang; Xi, Beidou; Hu, Shibin; Zhang, Jingtian; He, Zhuoshi

2016-03-01

Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) have been found in environment globally. However, studies on PFAS occurrence in sediments of lakes or reservoirs remain relatively scarce. In this study, two hundred and sixty-two surface sediment samples were collected from forty-eight lakes and two reservoirs all over China. Average PFAS concentrations in surface sediments from each lake or reservoir varied from 0.086 ng/g dw to 5.79 ng/g dw with an average of 1.15 ng/g dw. Among five lake regions, average PFAS concentrations for the lakes from Eastern Plain Region were the highest. Perfluorooctanoic acid, perfluoroundecanoic acid and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) were the predominant PFASs in surface sediments. The significant positive correlations between PFAS concentrations and total organic carbon, total nitrogen and total phosphorus contents in sediments revealed the influences of sedimentary characteristics on PFAS occurrence. A two-dimensional hierarchical cluster analysis heat map was depicted to analyze the possible origins of sediments and individual PFAS. The food-packaging, textile, electroplating, firefighting and semiconductor industry emission sources and the precious metals and coating industry emission sources were identified as the main sources by two receptor models, with contributions of 77.7 and 22.3% to the total concentrations of C4-C14- perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids and PFOS, respectively.

Evidence for non-synchronous rotation of Europa. Galileo Imaging Team.

PubMed

Geissler, P E; Greenberg, R; Hoppa, G; Helfenstein, P; McEwen, A; Pappalardo, R; Tufts, R; Ockert-Bell, M; Sullivan, R; Greeley, R; Belton, M J; Denk, T; Clark, B; Burns, J; Veverka, J

1998-01-22

Non-synchronous rotation of Europa was predicted on theoretical grounds, by considering the orbitally averaged torque exerted by Jupiter on the satellite's tidal bulges. If Europa's orbit were circular, or the satellite were comprised of a frictionless fluid without tidal dissipation, this torque would average to zero. However, Europa has a small forced eccentricity e approximately 0.01 , generated by its dynamical interaction with Io and Ganymede, which should cause the equilibrium spin rate of the satellite to be slightly faster than synchronous. Recent gravity data suggest that there may be a permanent asymmetry in Europa's interior mass distribution which is large enough to offset the tidal torque; hence, if non-synchronous rotation is observed, the surface is probably decoupled from the interior by a subsurface layer of liquid or ductile ice. Non-synchronous rotation was invoked to explain Europa's global system of lineaments and an equatorial region of rifting seen in Voyager images. Here we report an analysis of the orientation and distribution of these surface features, based on initial observations made by the Galileo spacecraft. We find evidence that Europa spins faster than the synchronous rate (or did so in the past), consistent with the possibility of a global subsurface ocean.

Assessment of Satellite Surface Radiation Products in Highland Regions with Tibet Instrumental Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Kun; Koike, Toshio; Stackhouse, Paul; Mikovitz, Colleen

2006-01-01

This study presents results of comparisons between instrumental radiation data in the elevated Tibetan Plateau and two global satellite products: the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment - Surface Radiation Budget (GEWEX-SRB) and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project - Flux Data (ISCCP-FD). In general, shortwave radiation (SW) is estimated better by ISCCP-FD while longwave radiation (LW) is estimated better by GEWEX-SRB, but all the radiation components in both products are under-estimated. Severe and systematic errors were found in monthly-mean SRB SW (on plateau-average, -48 W/sq m for downward SW and -18 W/sq m for upward SW) and FD LW (on plateau-average, -37 W/sq m for downward LW and -62 W/sq m for upward LW) for radiation. Errors in monthly-mean diurnal variations are even larger than the monthly mean errors. Though the LW errors can be reduced about 10 W/sq m after a correction for altitude difference between the site and SRB and FD grids, these errors are still higher than that for other regions. The large errors in SRB SW was mainly due to a processing mistake for elevation effect, but the errors in SRB LW was mainly due to significant errors in input data. We suggest reprocessing satellite surface radiation budget data, at least for highland areas like Tibet.

Assessing the Impact of Different Measurement Time Intervals on Observed Long-Term Wind Speed Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azorin-Molina, C.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; McVicar, T.; Jerez, S.; Revuelto, J.; López Moreno, J. I.

2014-12-01

During the last two decades climate studies have reported a tendency toward a decline in measured near-surface wind speed in some regions of Europe, North America, Asia and Australia. This weakening in observed wind speed has been recently termed "global stilling", showing a worldwide average trend of -0.140 m s-1 dec-1 during last 50-years. The precise cause of the "global stilling" remains largely uncertain and has been hypothetically attributed to several factors, mainly related to: (i) an increasing surface roughness (i.e. forest growth, land use changes, and urbanization); (ii) a slowdown in large-scale atmospheric circulation; (iii) instrumental drifts and technological improvements, maintenance, and shifts in measurements sites and calibration issues; (iv) sunlight dimming due to air pollution; and (v) astronomical changes. This study proposed a novel investigation aimed at analyzing how different measurement time intervals used to calculate a wind speed series can affect the sign and magnitude of long-term wind speed trends. For instance, National Weather Services across the globe estimate daily average wind speed using different time intervals and formulae that may affect the trend results. Firstly, we carried out a comprehensive review of wind studies reporting the sign and magnitude of wind speed trend and the sampling intervals used. Secondly, we analyzed near-surface wind speed trends recorded at 59 land-based stations across Spain comparing monthly mean wind speed series obtained from: (a) daily mean wind speed data averaged from standard 10-min mean observations at 0000, 0700, 1300 and 1800 UTC; and (b) average wind speed of 24 hourly measurements (i.e., wind run measurements) from 0000 to 2400 UTC. Thirdly and finally, we quantified the impact of anemometer drift (i.e. bearing malfunction) by presenting preliminary results (1-year of paired measurements) from a comparison of one new anemometer sensor against one malfunctioned anenometer sensor due to old bearings.

Updating the lake-atmosphere gas transfer velocity with impacts on the role of lake ecosystems in global carbon cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heiskanen, J. J.; Mammarella, I.; Haapanala, S.; Vesala, T.; Pumpanen, J. S.; Ojala, A.

2013-12-01

Currently, the global estimate for the amount of carbon bound in terrestrial ecosystems is 3.0 × 0.9 Pg C y-1 [Le Quéré et al., 2009]. Lakes are not explicitly included in currently used global carbon models [Randall et al., 2007] but it has been estimated that the global net CO2 flux from lakes to the atmosphere range from 0.07 to 0.15 Pg C y-1 [Cole et al., 2007], corresponding to 2.3-5.0% of the total average terrestrial net uptake of carbon. These lake flux estimates may be considerably biased [MacIntyre et al., 2010], since although the data pertain to about 5000 lakes throughout the world [Sobek and Tranvik, 2005], the estimates are not from direct flux measurements. Instead, they are based on surface-water CO2 partial pressure in combination with the gas transfer velocity, k. The uncertainty in the global net CO2 flux is mostly due to the uncertainties in k, which can vary considerably. Cole and Caraco (1998) measured a range of 1.4 to 4.8 cm h-1 for k, but again, these values are not based on direct flux measurements of CO2. The most widely used empirical models of k have wind speed as the only explaining variable. However, the gas transfer velocity is also known to depend on turbulence in the surface water [MacIntyre et al., 2010], which in turn depends mostly on penetrative water convection at low wind conditions [MacIntyre et al., 2010; MacIntyre et al., 2001] - the conditions often prevailing in lakes [Schladow et al., 2002]. We formulated an improved model for k with heat flux parameterization in addition to a wind-speed parameter, determined from an analysis of 4 months (August - November 2011) of continuous high-frequency data in a typical small boreal lake in southern Finland. The CO2 flux from the lake to the atmosphere, atmospheric partial pressure of CO2, and latent and sensible heat were measured with the EC technique installed on a platform. Ancillary measurements included surface-water CO2 concentration and temperature, and net longwave and shortwave radiation. The modeled average k for the whole period, 9.5 cm h-1, was near to the measured average, 8.7 cm h-1. We used 24-hour averages when comparing the results. The new model for k had an R2 value of 0.66 when its performance was compared to the measured gas transfer velocity. Even though this is a lot higher value than when comparing the measured k with a widely used model for k (Cole and Caraco 1998, R2=0.29), the new model could not predict all the sudden changes in k and still roughly one third of the variation was left unexplained. This might be due to the environmental factors omitted by the model, e.g. surfactants. As a result, we showed that the current estimate of the global net CO2 flux from lakes to the atmosphere triples from 0.07-0.15 Pg C y-1 to 0.23-0.48 Pg C y-1 when the average k by Cole and Caraco (1998) is replaced with the new k. This corresponds to 7.5-16.0% of the total CO2 bound in terrestrial ecosystems compared with the current estimates of 2.3-5.0%. The new parameterization of k, assuming that it represents lakes in general, thus shows that the role of lakes in the global carbon cycle has been heavily underestimated and emphasizes the explicit inclusion of lakes in global carbon models.

Mercury's helium exosphere after Mariner 10's third encounter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, S. A.; Hartle, R. E.

1977-01-01

From Mariner 10 third encounter UV data, a value of .00045 was calculated as the fraction of the solar wind He++ flux intercepted and captured by Mercury's magnetosphere if the observed He atmosphere is maintained by the solar wind. If an internal source for He prevails, the corresponding upper bound for the global outgassing rate is estimated to be 4.5 x 10 to the 22nd power per sec. A surface temperature distribution was used which satisfies the heat equation over Mercury's entire surface using Mariner 10 determined mean surface thermal characteristics. The means stand off distance of Mercury's magnetopause averaged over Mercury's orbit was also used.

Multidecadal global cooling and unprecedented ozone loss following a regional nuclear conflict

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, Michael J.; Toon, Owen B.; Lee-Taylor, Julia; Robock, Alan

2014-04-01

We present the first study of the global impacts of a regional nuclear war with an Earth system model including atmospheric chemistry, ocean dynamics, and interactive sea ice and land components. A limited, regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan in which each side detonates 50 15 kt weapons could produce about 5 Tg of black carbon (BC). This would self-loft to the stratosphere, where it would spread globally, producing a sudden drop in surface temperatures and intense heating of the stratosphere. Using the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, we calculate an e-folding time of 8.7 years for stratospheric BC compared to 4-6.5 years for previous studies. Our calculations show that global ozone losses of 20%-50% over populated areas, levels unprecedented in human history, would accompany the coldest average surface temperatures in the last 1000 years. We calculate summer enhancements in UV indices of 30%-80% over midlatitudes, suggesting widespread damage to human health, agriculture, and terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Killing frosts would reduce growing seasons by 10-40 days per year for 5 years. Surface temperatures would be reduced for more than 25 years due to thermal inertia and albedo effects in the ocean and expanded sea ice. The combined cooling and enhanced UV would put significant pressures on global food supplies and could trigger a global nuclear famine. Knowledge of the impacts of 100 small nuclear weapons should motivate the elimination of more than 17,000 nuclear weapons that exist today.

Climatology and natural variability of the global hydrologic cycle in the GLA atmospheric general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K.-M.; Mehta, V. M.; Sud, Y. C.; Walker, G. K.

1994-01-01

Time average climatology and low-frequency variabilities of the global hydrologic cycle (GHC) in the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) general circulation model (GCM) were investigated in the present work. A 730-day experiment was conducted with the GLA GCM forced by insolation, sea surface temperature, and ice-snow undergoing climatological annual cycles. Ifluences of interactive soil moisture on time average climatology and natural variability of the GHC were also investigated by conducting 365-day experiments with and without interactive soil moisture. Insolation, sea surface temperature, and ice-snow were fixed at their July levels in the latter two experiments. Results show that the model's time average hydrologic cycle variables for July in all three experiments agree reasonably well with observations. Except in the case of precipitable water, the zonal average climates of the annual cycle experiment and the two perpetual July experiments are alike, i.e., their differences are within limits of the natural variability of the model's climate. Statistics of various components of the GHC, i.e., water vapor, evaporation, and precipitation, are significantly affected by the presence of interactive soil moisture. A long-term trend is found in the principal empirical modes of variability of ground wetness, evaporation, and sensible heat. Dominant modes of variability of these quantities over land are physically consistent with one another and with land surface energy balance requirements. The dominant mode of precipitation variability is found to be closely related to organized convection over the tropical western Pacific Ocean. The precipitation variability has timescales in the range of 2 to 3 months and can be identified with the stationary component of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The precipitation mode is not sensitive to the presence of interactive soil moisture but is closely linked to both the rotational and divergent components of atmospheric moisture transport. The present results indicate that globally coherent natural variability of the GHC in the GLA GCM has two basic timescales in the absence of annual cycles of external forcings: a long-term trend associated with atmosphere-soil moisture interaction which affects the model atmosphere mostly over midlatitude continental regions and a large-scale 2- to 3-month variability associated with atmospheric moist processes over the western Pacific Ocean.

Characteristics and Future Changes of Great Mississippi Flood Events in a Global Coupled Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Wiel, K.; Kapnick, S. B.; Vecchi, G.; Smith, J. A.

2017-12-01

The Mississippi-Missouri river catchment houses millions of people and much of the U.S. national agricultural production. Severe flooding events can therefore have large negative societal, natural and economic impacts. GFDL FLOR, a global coupled climate model (atmosphere, ocean, land, sea ice with integrated river routing module) is used to investigate the characteristics of great Mississippi floods with an average return period of 100 years. Model experiments under pre-industrial greenhouse gas forcing were conducted for 3400 years, such that the most extreme flooding events were explicitly modeled and the land and/or atmospheric causes could be investigated. It is shown that melt of snow pack and frozen sub-surface water in the Missouri and Upper Mississippi basins prime the river system, subsequently sensitizing it to above average precipitation in the Ohio and Tennessee basins. The months preceding the greatest flooding events are above average wet, leading to moist sub-surface conditions. Anomalous melt depends on the availability of frozen water in the catchment, therefore anomalous amounts of sub-surface frozen water and anomalous large snow pack in winter (Nov-Feb) make the river system susceptible for these great flooding events in spring (Feb-Apr). An additional experiment of 1200 years under transient greenhouse gas forcing (RCP4.5, 5 members) was done to investigate potential future change in flood risk. Based on a peak-over-threshold method, it is found that the number of great flooding events decreases in a warmer future. This decrease coincides with decreasing occurrence of large melt events, but is despite increasing numbers of large precipitation events. Though the model results indicate a decreasing risk for the greatest flooding events, the predictability of events might decrease in a warmer future given the changing characters of melt and precipitation.

Unveiling the role and life strategies of viruses from the surface to the dark ocean

PubMed Central

Lara, Elena; Vaqué, Dolors; Sà, Elisabet Laia; Boras, Julia A.; Gomes, Ana; Borrull, Encarna; Díez-Vives, Cristina; Teira, Eva; Pernice, Massimo C.; Garcia, Francisca C.; Forn, Irene; Castillo, Yaiza M.; Peiró, Aida; Salazar, Guillem; Morán, Xosé Anxelu G.; Massana, Ramon; Catalá, Teresa S.; Luna, Gian Marco; Agustí, Susana; Estrada, Marta; Gasol, Josep M.; Duarte, Carlos M.

2017-01-01

Viruses are a key component of marine ecosystems, but the assessment of their global role in regulating microbial communities and the flux of carbon is precluded by a paucity of data, particularly in the deep ocean. We assessed patterns in viral abundance and production and the role of viral lysis as a driver of prokaryote mortality, from surface to bathypelagic layers, across the tropical and subtropical oceans. Viral abundance showed significant differences between oceans in the epipelagic and mesopelagic, but not in the bathypelagic, and decreased with depth, with an average power-law scaling exponent of −1.03 km−1 from an average of 7.76 × 106 viruses ml−1 in the epipelagic to 0.62 × 106 viruses ml−1 in the bathypelagic layer with an average integrated (0 to 4000 m) viral stock of about 0.004 to 0.044 g C m−2, half of which is found below 775 m. Lysogenic viral production was higher than lytic viral production in surface waters, whereas the opposite was found in the bathypelagic, where prokaryotic mortality due to viruses was estimated to be 60 times higher than grazing. Free viruses had turnover times of 0.1 days in the bathypelagic, revealing that viruses in the bathypelagic are highly dynamic. On the basis of the rates of lysed prokaryotic cells, we estimated that viruses release 145 Gt C year−1 in the global tropical and subtropical oceans. The active viral processes reported here demonstrate the importance of viruses in the production of dissolved organic carbon in the dark ocean, a major pathway in carbon cycling. PMID:28913418

Simulated responses of terrestrial aridity to black carbon and sulfate aerosols: LIN: SIMULATED RESPONSES ARIDITY

DOE PAGES

Lin, L.; Gettelman, A.; Xu, Y.; ...

2016-01-27

Aridity index (AI), defined as the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (PET), is a measure of the dryness of terrestrial climate. Global climate models generally project future decreases of AI (drying) associated with global warming scenarios driven by increasing greenhouse gas and declining aerosols. Given their different effects in the climate system, scattering and absorbing aerosols may affect AI differently. Here we explore the terrestrial aridity responses to anthropogenic black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO4) aerosols with Community Earth System Model simulations. Positive BC radiative forcing decreases precipitation averaged over global land at a rate of 0.9%/°C of globalmore » mean surface temperature increase (moderate drying), while BC radiative forcing increases PET by 1.0%/°C (also drying). BC leads to a global decrease of 1.9%/°C in AI (drying). SO4 forcing is negative and causes precipitation a decrease at a rate of 6.7%/°C cooling (strong drying). PET also decreases in response to SO4 aerosol cooling by 6.3%/°C cooling (contributing to moistening). Thus, SO4 cooling leads to a small decrease in AI (drying) by 0.4%/°C cooling. Despite the opposite effects on global mean temperature, BC and SO4 both contribute to the twentieth century drying (AI decrease). Sensitivity test indicates that surface temperature and surface available energy changes dominate BC- and SO4-induced PET changes.« less

Picophytoplankton biomass distribution in the global ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buitenhuis, E. T.; Li, W. K. W.; Vaulot, D.; Lomas, M. W.; Landry, M.; Partensky, F.; Karl, D. M.; Ulloa, O.; Campbell, L.; Jacquet, S.; Lantoine, F.; Chavez, F.; Macias, D.; Gosselin, M.; McManus, G. B.

2012-04-01

The smallest marine phytoplankton, collectively termed picophytoplankton, have been routinely enumerated by flow cytometry since the late 1980s, during cruises throughout most of the world ocean. We compiled a database of 40 946 data points, with separate abundance entries for Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus and picoeukaryotes. We use average conversion factors for each of the three groups to convert the abundance data to carbon biomass. After gridding with 1° spacing, the database covers 2.4% of the ocean surface area, with the best data coverage in the North Atlantic, the South Pacific and North Indian basins. The average picophytoplankton biomass is 12 ± 22 μg C l-1 or 1.9 g C m-2. We estimate a total global picophytoplankton biomass of 0.53-0.74 Pg C (17-39% Prochlorococcus, 12-15% Synechococcus and 49-69% picoeukaryotes). Future efforts in this area of research should focus on reporting calibrated cell size, and collecting data in undersampled regions.

Land surface temperature over global deserts: Means, variability, and trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Chunlüe; Wang, Kaicun

2016-12-01

Land surface air temperature (LSAT) has been a widely used metric to study climate change. Weather observations of LSAT are the fundamental data for climate change studies and provide key evidence of global warming. However, there are very few meteorological observations over deserts due to their uninhabitable environment. This study fills this gap and provides independent evidence using satellite-derived land surface temperatures (LSTs), benefiting from their global coverage. The frequency of clear sky from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST data over global deserts was found to be greater than 94% for the 2002-2015 period. Our results show that MODIS LST has a bias of 1.36°C compared to ground-based observations collected at 31 U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) stations, with a standard deviation of 1.83°C. After bias correction, MODIS LST was used to evaluate existing reanalyses, including ERA-Interim, Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), MERRA-land, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-R1, and NCEP-R2. The reanalyses accurately reproduce the seasonal cycle and interannual variability of the LSTs, but their multiyear means and trends of LSTs exhibit large uncertainties. The multiyear averaged LST over global deserts is 23.5°C from MODIS and varies from 20.8°C to 24.5°C in different reanalyses. The MODIS LST over global deserts increased by 0.25°C/decade from 2002 to 2015, whereas the reanalyses estimated a trend varying from -0.14 to 0.10°C/decade. The underestimation of the LST trend by the reanalyses occurs for approximately 70% of the global deserts, likely due to the imperfect performance of the reanalyses in reproducing natural climate variability.

Water on the surface of the Moon as seen by the Moon Mineralogy Mapper: Distribution, abundance, and origins

PubMed Central

Li, Shuai; Milliken, Ralph E.

2017-01-01

A new thermal correction model and experimentally validated relationships between absorption strength and water content have been used to construct the first global quantitative maps of lunar surface water derived from the Moon Mineralogy Mapper near-infrared reflectance data. We find that OH abundance increases as a function of latitude, approaching values of ~500 to 750 parts per million (ppm). Water content also increases with the degree of space weathering, consistent with the preferential retention of water originating from solar wind implantation during agglutinate formation. Anomalously high water contents indicative of interior magmatic sources are observed in several locations, but there is no global correlation between surface composition and water content. Surface water abundance can vary by ~200 ppm over a lunar day, and the upper meter of regolith may contain a total of ~1.2 × 1014 g of water averaged over the globe. Formation and migration of water toward cold traps may thus be a continuous process on the Moon and other airless bodies. PMID:28924612

Changes in Land Surface Water Dynamics since the 1990s and Relation to Population Pressure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prigent, C.; Papa, F.; Aires, F.; Jimenez, C.; Rossow, W. B.; Matthews, E.

2012-01-01

We developed a remote sensing approach based on multi-satellite observations, which provides an unprecedented estimate of monthly distribution and area of land-surface open water over the whole globe. Results for 1993 to 2007 exhibit a large seasonal and inter-annual variability of the inundation extent with an overall decline in global average maximum inundated area of 6% during the fifteen-year period, primarily in tropical and subtropical South America and South Asia. The largest declines of open water are found where large increases in population have occurred over the last two decades, suggesting a global scale effect of human activities on continental surface freshwater: denser population can impact local hydrology by reducing freshwater extent, by draining marshes and wetlands, and by increasing water withdrawals. Citation: Prigent, C., F. Papa, F. Aires, C. Jimenez, W. B. Rossow, and E. Matthews (2012), Changes in land surface water dynamics since the 1990s and relation to population pressure, in section 4, insisting on the potential applications of the wetland dataset.

Development and Testing of the New Surface LER Climatology for OMI UV Aerosol Retrievals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, Pawan; Torres, Omar; Jethva, Hiren; Ahn, Changwoo

2014-01-01

Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard Aura satellite retrieved aerosols properties using UV part of solar spectrum. The OMI near UV aerosol algorithm (OMAERUV) is a global inversion scheme which retrieves aerosol properties both over ocean and land. The current version of the algorithm makes use of TOMS derived Lambertian Equivalent Reflectance (LER) climatology. A new monthly climatology of surface LER at 354 and 388 nm have been developed. This will replace TOMS LER (380 nm and 354nm) climatology in OMI near UV aerosol retrieval algorithm. The main objectives of this study is to produce high resolution (quarter degree) surface LER sets as compared to existing one degree TOMS surface LERs, to product instrument and wavelength consistent surface climatology. Nine years of OMI observations have been used to derive monthly climatology of surface LER. MODIS derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) have been used to make aerosol corrections on OMI wavelengths. MODIS derived BRDF adjusted reflectance product has been also used to capture seasonal changes in the surface characteristics. Finally spatial and temporal averaging techniques have been used to fill the gaps around the globes, especially in the regions with consistent cloud cover such as Amazon. After implementation of new surface data in the research version of algorithm, comparisons of AOD and single scattering albedo (SSA) have been performed over global AERONET sites for year 2007. Preliminary results shows improvements in AOD retrievals globally but more significance improvement were observed over desert and bright locations. We will present methodology of deriving surface data sets and will discuss the observed changes in retrieved aerosol properties with respect to reference AERONET measurements.

The global mean energy balance under cloud-free conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Martin; Hakuba, Maria; Folini, Dois; Ott, Patricia; Long, Charles

2017-04-01

A long standing problem of climate models is their overestimation of surface solar radiation not only under all-sky, but also under clear-sky conditions (Wild et al. 1995, Wild et al. 2006). This overestimation reduced over time in consecutive model generations due to the simulation of stronger atmospheric absorption. Here we analyze the clear sky fluxes of the latest climate model generation from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) against an expanded and updated set of direct observations from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN). Clear sky climatologies from these sites have been composed based on the Long and Ackermann (2000) clear sky detection algorithm (Hakuba et al. 2017), and sampling issues when comparing with model simulated clear sky fluxes have been analyzed in Ott (2017). Overall, the overestimation of clear sky insolation in the CMIP5 models is now merely 1-2 Wm-2 in the multimodel mean, compared to 4 Wm-2 in CMIP3 and 6 Wm-2 in AMIPII (Wild et al. 2006). Still a considerable spread in the individual model biases is apparent, ranging from -2 Wm-2 to 10 Wm-2 when averaged over 53 globally distributed BSRN sites. This bias structure is used to infer best estimates for present day global mean clear sky insolation, following an approach developped in Wild et al. (2013, 2015, Clim. Dyn.) for all sky fluxes. Thereby the flux biases in the various models are linearly related to their respective global means. A best estimate can then be inferred from the linear regression at the intersect where the bias against the surface observations becomes zero. This way we obtain a best estimate of 247 Wm-2 for the global mean insolation at the Earth surface under cloud free conditions, and a global mean absorbed solar radiation of 214 Wm-2 in the cloud-free atmosphere, assuming a global mean surface albedo of 13.5%. Combined with a best estimate for the net influx of solar radiation at the Top of Atmosphere under cloud free conditions from CERES EBAF of 286 Wm-2, this leaves an amount of 72 Wm-2 absorbed solar radiation in the cloud free atmosphere. The 72 Wm-2 closely match our best estimate for the global mean cloud-free atmospheric absorption in Wild et al. JGR (2006) based on older models and their biases against much fewer direct observation. This indicates that the estimate of global mean solar absorption in the cloud free atmosphere slightly above 70 Wm-2 is fairly robust. In comparison, the global mean solar absorption under all sky conditions was estimated in Wild et al. (2015) at 80 Wm-2 based on the same approach. The difference between the all- and clear-sky absorption represents the cloud radiative effect on the atmospheric absorption, and is thus estimated here to be around 8 Wm-2. This is similar in magnitude to the 11 Wm-2 derived by Hakuba et al. (2017) when averaged over the atmospheric cloud effect determined at 36 BSRN station. We applied the same methodology also for the longwave fluxes. Thereby we obtained a best estimate for the global mean clear sky downward longwave flux at the Earth surface of 214 Wm-2. Together with a surface and TOA upward longwave flux of 398 Wm-2 and 266 Wm-2, respectively, this leaves an atmospheric longwave divergence under clear sky conditions of 182 Wm-2. Selected related references: Hakuba, M. Z., Folini, D., Wild, M., Long, C. N., Schaepman-Strub, G., and Stephens, G.L., 2017: Cloud Effects on Atmospheric Solar Absorption in Light of Most Recent Surface and Satellite Measurements. AIP Conf. Proc. (in press). Ott, P., 2017: Master Thesis at ETH Zurich (in prep.). Wild, M., Ohmura, A., Gilgen, H., and Roeckner, E., 1995: Validation of GCM simulated radiative fluxes using surface observations. J. Climate, 8, 1309-1324. Wild, M., Long, C.N., and Ohmura, A., 2006: Evaluation of clear-sky solar fluxes in GCMs participating in AMIP and IPCC-AR4 from a surface perspective. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D01104, doi:10.1029/2005JD006118. Wild, M., Folini, D., Schär, C., Loeb, N., Dutton, E.G., and König-Langlo, G., 2013: The global energy balance from a surface perspective. Climate Dynamics, 40, 3107-3134. Wild, M., Folini, D., Hakuba, M., Schär, C., Seneviratne, S.I., Kato, S., Rutan, D., Ammann, C., Wood, E.F., and König-Langlo, G., 2015: The energy balance over land and oceans: An assessment based on direct observations and CMIP5 climate models, Climate Dynamics, 3393-3429, 44, DOI 10.1007/s00382-014-2430-z.

CERES Monthly Gridded Single Satellite TOA and Surfaces/Clouds (SFC) data in HDF (CER_SFC_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Beta4)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A. (Principal Investigator)

The Monthly Gridded TOA/Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SFC) product contains a month of space and time averaged Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The SFC is also produced for combinations of scanner instruments. All instantaneous shortwave, longwave, and window fluxes at the Top-of-the-Atmosphere (TOA) and surface from the CERES SSF product for a month are sorted by 1-degree spatial regions and by the local hour of observation. The mean of the instantaneous fluxes for a given region-hour bin is determined and recorded on the SFC along with other flux statistics and scene information. These average fluxes are given for both clear-sky and total-sky scenes. The regional cloud properties are column averaged and are included on the SFC. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-01-01; Stop_Date=2000-03-31] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=100] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1 degree; Longitude_Resolution=1 degree; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=100 km - < 250 km or approximately 1 degree - < 2.5 degrees; Temporal_Resolution=1 hour; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Hourly - < Daily].

Climatological Data For Clouds Over the Globe From Surface Observations, 1982-1991: The Total Cloud Edition (1994) (NDP-026a)

DOE Data Explorer

Hahn, Carole J. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES); Warren, Stephen G. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; London, Julius [Department of Astrophysical, Planetary, and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO

1994-01-01

Routine, synoptic surface weather reports from ships and land stations over the entire globe, for the10-year period December 1981 through November 1991, were processed for total cloud cover and the frequencies of occurrence of clear sky, sky-obscured due to precipitation, and sky-obscured due to fog. Archived data, consisting of various annual, seasonal and monthly averages, are provided in grid boxes that are typically 2.5° × 2.5° for land and 5° × 5° for ocean. Day and nighttime averages are also given separately for each season. Several derived quantities, such as interannual variations and annual and diurnal harmonics, are provided as well. This data set incorporates an improved representation of nighttime cloudiness by utilizing only those nighttime observations for which the illuminance due to moonlight exceeds a specified threshold. This reduction in the night-detection bias increases the computed global average total cloud cover by about 2%. The impact on computed diurnal cycles is even greater, particularly over the oceans where it is found (in contrast to previous surface-based climatologies), that cloudiness is often greater at night than during the day.

Permutation invariant polynomial neural network approach to fitting potential energy surfaces. II. Four-atom systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Jun; Jiang, Bin; Guo, Hua, E-mail: hguo@unm.edu

2013-11-28

A rigorous, general, and simple method to fit global and permutation invariant potential energy surfaces (PESs) using neural networks (NNs) is discussed. This so-called permutation invariant polynomial neural network (PIP-NN) method imposes permutation symmetry by using in its input a set of symmetry functions based on PIPs. For systems with more than three atoms, it is shown that the number of symmetry functions in the input vector needs to be larger than the number of internal coordinates in order to include both the primary and secondary invariant polynomials. This PIP-NN method is successfully demonstrated in three atom-triatomic reactive systems, resultingmore » in full-dimensional global PESs with average errors on the order of meV. These PESs are used in full-dimensional quantum dynamical calculations.« less

Globally Averaged Atmospheric CFC-11 Concentrations: Monthly and Annual Data for the Period 1975-1992 (DB1010)

DOE Data Explorer

Khalil, M. A.K. [Oregon Graduate Institute of Science and Technology Portland, Oregon (USA); Rasmussen, R. A. [Oregon Graduate Institute of Science and Technology Portland, Oregon

1996-01-01

This data set presents globally averaged atmospheric concentrations of chlorofluorocarbon 11, known also as CFC-11 or F-11 (chemical name: trichlorofluoromethane; formula: CCl3F). The monthly global average data are derived from flask air samples collected at eight sites in six locations over the period August 1980-July 1992. The sites are Barrow (Alaska), Cape Meares (Oregon), Cape Kumukahi and Mauna Loa (Hawaii), Cape Matatula (American Samoa), Cape Grim (Tasmania), Palmer Station, and the South Pole (Antarctica). At each collection site, monthly averages were obtained from three flask samples collected every week. In addition to the monthly global averages available for 1980-992, this data set also contains annual global average data for 1975-1985. These annual global averages were derived from January measurements at the South Pole and in the Pacific Northwest of the United States (specifically, Washington state and the Oregon coast).

Seven-Year SSM/I-Derived Global Ocean Surface Turbulent Fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Shu-Hsien; Shie, Chung-Lin; Atlas, Robert M.; Ardizzone, Joe

2000-01-01

A 7.5-year (July 1987-December 1994) dataset of daily surface specific humidity and turbulent fluxes (momentum, latent heat, and sensible heat) over global oceans has been retrieved from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data and other data. It has a spatial resolution of 2.0 deg.x 2.5 deg. latitude-longitude. The retrieved surface specific humidity is generally accurate over global oceans as validated against the collocated radiosonde observations. The retrieved daily wind stresses and latent heat fluxes show useful accuracy as verified by those measured by the RV Moana Wave and IMET buoy in the western equatorial Pacific. The derived turbulent fluxes and input variables are also found to agree generally with the global distributions of annual-and seasonal-means of those based on 4-year (1990-93) comprehensive ocean-atmosphere data set (COADS) with adjustment in wind speeds and other climatological studies. The COADS has collected the most complete surface marine observations, mainly from merchant ships. However, ship measurements generally have poor accuracy, and variable spatial coverages. Significant differences between the retrieved and COADS-based are found in some areas of the tropical and southern extratropical oceans, reflecting the paucity of ship observations outside the northern extratropical oceans. Averaged over the global oceans, the retrieved wind stress is smaller but the latent heat flux is larger than those based on COADS. The former is suggested to be mainly due to overestimation of the adjusted ship-estimated wind speeds (depending on sea states), while the latter is suggested to be mainly due to overestimation of ship-measured dew point temperatures. The study suggests that the SSM/I-derived turbulent fluxes can be used for climate studies and coupled model validations.

Biophysical effects on temperature and precipitation due to land cover change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perugini, Lucia; Caporaso, Luca; Marconi, Sergio; Cescatti, Alessandro; Quesada, Benjamin; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie; House, Johanna I.; Arneth, Almut

2017-05-01

Anthropogenic land cover changes (LCC) affect regional and global climate through biophysical variations of the surface energy budget mediated by albedo, evapotranspiration, and roughness. This change in surface energy budget may exacerbate or counteract biogeochemical greenhouse gas effects of LCC, with a large body of emerging assessments being produced, sometimes apparently contradictory. We reviewed the existing scientific literature with the objective to provide an overview of the state-of-the-knowledge of the biophysical LCC climate effects, in support of the assessment of mitigation/adaptation land policies. Out of the published studies that were analyzed, 28 papers fulfilled the eligibility criteria, providing surface air temperature and/or precipitation change with respect to LCC regionally and/or globally. We provide a synthesis of the signal, magnitude and uncertainty of temperature and precipitation changes in response to LCC biophysical effects by climate region (boreal/temperate/tropical) and by key land cover transitions. Model results indicate that a modification of biophysical processes at the land surface has a strong regional climate effect, and non-negligible global impact on temperature. Simulations experiments of large-scale (i.e. complete) regional deforestation lead to a mean reduction in precipitation in all regions, while air surface temperature increases in the tropics and decreases in boreal regions. The net global climate effects of regional deforestation are less certain. There is an overall consensus in the model experiments that the average global biophysical climate response to complete global deforestation is atmospheric cooling and drying. Observed estimates of temperature change following deforestation indicate a smaller effect than model-based regional estimates in boreal regions, comparable results in the tropics, and contrasting results in temperate regions. Regional/local biophysical effects following LCC are important for local climate, water cycle, ecosystems, their productivity and biodiversity, and thus important to consider in the formulation of adaptation policy. However before considering the inclusion of biophysical climate effects of LCC under the UNFCCC, science has to provide robust tools and methods for estimation of both country and global level effects.

Surface radiation fluxes in transient climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garratt, J. R.; O'Brien, D. M.; Dix, M. R.; Murphy, J. M.; Stephens, G. L.; Wild, M.

1999-01-01

Transient CO 2 experiments from five coupled climate models, in which the CO 2 concentration increases at rates of 0.6-1.1% per annum for periods of 75-200 years, are used to document the responses of surface radiation fluxes, and associated atmospheric properties, to the CO 2 increase. In all five models, the responses of global surface temperature and column water vapour are non-linear and fairly tightly constrained. Thus, global warming lies between 1.9 and 2.7 K at doubled, and between 3.1 and 4.1 K at tripled, CO 2, whilst column water vapour increases by between 3.5 and 4.5 mm at doubled, and between 7 and 8 mm at tripled, CO 2. Global cloud fraction tends to decrease by 1-2% out to tripled CO 2, mainly the result of decreases in low cloud. Global increases in column water, and differences in these increases between models, are mainly determined by the warming of the tropical oceans relative to the middle and high latitudes; these links are emphasised in the zonal profiles of warming and column water vapour increase, with strong water vapour maxima in the tropics. In all models the all-sky shortwave flux to the surface S↓ (global, annual average) changes by less than 5 W m -2 out to tripled CO 2, in some cases being essentially invariant in time. In contrast, the longwave flux to the surface L↓ increases significantly, by 25 W m -2 typically at tripled CO 2. The variations of S↓ and L↓ (clear-sky and all-sky fluxes) with increase in CO 2 concentration are generally non-linear, reflecting the effects of ocean thermal inertia, but as functions of global warming are close to linear in all five models. This is best illustrated for the clear-sky downwelling fluxes, and the net radiation. Regionally, as illustrated in zonal profiles and global distributions, greatest changes in both S↓ and L↓ are the result primarily of local maxima in warming and column water vapour increases.

Evaluation of Global Photosynthesis and BVOC Emission Covariance with Climate in NASA ModelE2-Y

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unger, N.

2012-12-01

Terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP), a measure of the total amount of CO2 removed from the atmosphere every year to fuel photosynthesis, is the largest global carbon flux. GPP is vital for human welfare as the basis for food and fiber, and provides the crucial ecosystem service of reducing the accumulation of fossil fuel CO2 in the atmosphere. Land plants emit a significant fraction of the assimilated carbon back to the atmosphere in the form of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). Isoprene is the dominant BVOC emission with an estimated global source of 200-660 TgC/yr. Global monoterpene emission estimates range from 30-130 TgC/yr. BVOC photochemical oxidation exerts a profound impact on the distribution and variability of the short-lived climate forcers: ozone, biogenic secondary organic aerosol and methane. Here, we apply multiple observational datasets from a suite of platforms to evaluate an updated global chemistry-climate model that is coupled to a new vegetation biophysics scheme incorporating photosynthesis-dependent BVOC emissions (NASA ModelE2-Y). A fixed vegetation structure dataset based on 8 plant functional types and prescribed phenology including crop planting and harvesting gives GPP of 128 PgC/yr and a global isoprene source of 200TgC/yr. The model GPP captures 85% of the annual average zonal mean variability in a FLUXNET-derived global dataset that was generated by data orientated diagnostic upscaling. We assess model BVOC emission climatology against a comprehensive database of campaign-average above canopy flux measurements and surface concentrations of isoprene and monoterpene collected between 1995-2010 across a wide range of ecosystem types, regions and seasons (> 25 flux estimates; > 22 surface concentration values). We evaluate the diurnal, seasonal and interannual integrity of the model BVOC variability against 9 sites for isoprene and 4 sites for monoterpene. The model captures ~60% of the variability in the time-dependent fluxes across a broad range of different ecosystem types. In tropical ecosystems, the model simulates the campaign-average diurnal cycle with remarkable fidelity (root-mean-square error = 0.20 mgC/m2/hr; normalized mean bias = -5%). The model underpredicts in broadleaf deciduous ecosystems in the United States and Europe. We probe the GPP and BVOC emission covariance with climate in tropical, temperate and boreal ecosystems, and the GPP-HCHO correlation using fire-free HCHO columns from OMI and SCIAMACHY 2005-2008.

Impact of Future Emissions and Climate Change on Surface Ozone over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, C. T.; Westervelt, D. M.; Fiore, A. M.; Rieder, H. E.; Kinney, P.; Wang, S.; Correa, G. J. P.

2017-12-01

China's immense ambient air pollution problem and world-leading greenhouse gas emissions place it at the forefront of global efforts to address these related environmental concerns. Here, we analyze the impact of ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) future emissions scenarios representative of current legislation (CLE) and maximum technically feasible emissions reductions (MFR) on surface ozone (O3) concentrations over China in the 2030s and 2050s, in the context of a changing climate. We use a suite of simulations performed with the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's AM3 global chemistry-climate model. To estimate the impact of climate change in isolation on Chinese air quality, we hold emissions of air pollutants including O3 precursors fixed at 2015 levels but allow climate (global sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover) to change according to decadal averages for the years 2026-2035 and 2046-2055 from a three-member ensemble of GFDL-CM3 simulations under the RCP8.5 high warming scenario. Evaluation of the present-day simulation (2015 CLE) with observations from 1497 chiefly urban air quality monitoring stations shows that simulated surface O3 is positively biased by 26 ppb on average over the domain of China. Previous studies, however, have shown that the modeled ozone response to changes in NOx emissions over the Eastern United States mirrors the magnitude and structure of observed changes in maximum daily average 8-hour (MDA8) O3 distributions. Therefore, we use the model's simulated changes for the 2030s and 2050s to project changes in policy-relevant MDA8 O3 concentrations. We find an overall increase in MDA8 O3 for CLE scenarios in which emissions of NOx precursors are projected to increase, and under MFR scenarios, an overall decrease, with the highest changes occurring in summertime for both 2030 and 2050 MFR. Under climate change alone, the model simulates a mean summertime decrease of 1.3 ppb and wintertime increase of 3.3 ppb by 2050. Adjustment of the observed site-level MDA8 O3 distribution to reflect regionally interpolated projected changes from AM3 allows us to examine changes in the number of days in exceedance of MDA8 O3 Level I (50 ppb) and Level II (80 ppb) Chinese national ambient air quality standards.

Impact of future climate policy scenarios on air quality and aerosol-cloud interactions using an advanced version of CESM/CAM5: Part II. Future trend analysis and impacts of projected anthropogenic emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang

2017-03-01

Following a comprehensive evaluation of the Community Earth System Model modified at the North Carolina State University (CESM-NCSU), Part II describes the projected changes in the future state of the atmosphere under the representative concentration partway scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5) by 2100 for the 2050 time frame and examine the impact of climate change on future air quality under both scenarios, and the impact of projected emission changes under the RCP4.5 scenario on future climate through aerosol direct and indirect effects. Both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations predict similar changes in air quality by the 2050 period due to declining emissions under both scenarios. The largest differences occur in O3, which decreases by global mean of 1.4 ppb under RCP4.5 but increases by global mean of 2.3 ppb under RCP8.5 due to differences in methane levels, and PM10, which decreases by global mean of 1.2 μg m-3 under RCP4.5 and increases by global mean of 0.2 μg m-3 under RCP8.5 due to differences in dust and sea-salt emissions under both scenarios. Enhancements in cloud formation in the Arctic and Southern Ocean and increases of aerosol optical depth (AOD) in central Africa and South Asia dominate the change in surface radiation in both scenarios, leading to global average dimming of 1.1 W m-2 and 2.0 W m-2 in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Declines in AOD, cloud formation, and cloud optical thickness from reductions of emissions of primary aerosols and aerosol precursors under RCP4.5 result in near surface warming of 0.2 °C from a global average increase of 0.7 W m-2 in surface downwelling solar radiation. This warming leads to a weakening of the Walker Circulation in the tropics, leading to significant changes in cloud and precipitation that mirror a shift in climate towards the negative phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation.

Swimming Motility Reduces Deposition to Silica Surfaces

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Nanxi; Massoudieh, Arash; Liang, Xiaomeng

The role of swimming motility on bacterial transport and fate in porous media was evaluated. We present microscopic evidence showing that strong swimming motility reduces attachment of Azotobacter vinelandii cells to silica surfaces. Applying global and cluster statistical analyses to microscopic videos taken under non-flow conditions, wild type, flagellated A. vinelandii strain DJ showed strong swimming ability with an average speed of 13.1 μm/s, DJ77 showed impaired swimming averaged at 8.7 μm/s, and both the non-flagellated JZ52 and chemically treated DJ cells were non-motile. Quantitative analyses of trajectories observed at different distances above the collector of a radial stagnation pointmore » flow cell (RSPF) revealed that both swimming and non-swimming cells moved with the flow when at a distance of at least 20 μm from the collector surface. Near the surface, DJ cells showed both horizontal and vertical movement diverging them from reaching surfaces, while chemically treated DJ cells moved with the flow to reach surfaces, suggesting that strong swimming reduced attachment. In agreement with the RSPF results, the deposition rates obtained for two-dimensional multiple-collector micromodels were also lowest for DJ, while DJ77 and JZ52 showed similar values. Strong swimming specifically reduced deposition on the upstream surfaces of the micromodel collectors.« less

Investigation of newly discovered lobate scarps: Implications for the tectonic and thermal evolution of the Moon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Jaclyn D.; Hurtado, José M.; Hiesinger, Harald; van der Bogert, Carolyn H.; Bernhardt, Hannes

2017-12-01

Using observations of lunar scarps in Apollo Panoramic Camera photos, Binder and Gunga (1985) tested competing models for the initial thermal state of the Moon, i.e., whether it was initially completely molten or if the molten portion was limited to a global magma ocean. Binder and Gunga (1985) favored the concept of an initially molten Moon that had entered into a late-stage epoch of global tectonism. Since the start of the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter mission, thousands of new small lobate scarps have been identified across the lunar surface with high-resolution images from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC). As such, we selected spatially random scarps and reevaluated the fault dynamical calculations presented by Binder and Gunga (1985). Additionally, we examined the geometry and properties of these fault scarps and place better constraints on the amount of scarp-related crustal shortening. We found that these low angle thrust faults (∼23˚) have an average relief of ∼40 m and average depths of 951 m. Using crater size-frequency distribution (CSFD) measurements, we derived absolute model ages for the scarp surfaces proximal to the trace of the fault and found that the last slip event occurred in the last ∼132 Ma. Along with young model ages, lunar lobate scarps exhibit a youthful appearance with their crisp morphologies which is indicative of late-stage horizontal shortening. In conclusion, interior secular cooling and tidal stresses cause global contraction of the Moon.

Radiative Forcing and Temperature Response to Changes in Urban Albedos and Associated CO2 Offsets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Menon, Surabi; Akbari, Hashem; Mahanama, Sarith; Sednev, Igor; Levinson, Ronnen

2009-01-01

The two main forcings that can counteract to some extent the positive forcings from greenhouse gases from pre-industrial times to present-day are the aerosol and related aerosol-cloud forcings, and the radiative response to changes in surface albedo. Here, we quantify the change in radiative forcing and surface temperature that may be obtained by increasing the albedos of roofs and pavements in urban areas in temperate and tropical regions of the globe. Using the catchment land surface model (the land model coupled to the GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model), we quantify the response of the total outgoing (outgoing shortwave+longwave) radiation to urban albedo changes. Globally, the total outgoing radiation increased by 0.5 W/square m and temperature decreased by -0.008 K for an average 0.003 increase in albedo. For the U.S. the total outgoing total radiation increased by 2.3 W/square meter, and temperature decreased by approximately 0.03 K for an average 0.01 increase in albedo. These values are for the boreal summer (Tune-July-August). Based on these forcings, the expected emitted CO2 offset for a plausible 0.25 and 0.15 increase in albedos of roofs and pavements, respectively, for all global urban areas, was found to be approximately 57 Gt CO2 . A more meaningful evaluation of the impacts of urban albedo increases on climate and the expected CO2 offsets would require simulations which better characterizes urban surfaces and represents the full annual cycle.

Land Subsidence and Aquifer-System Compaction in the Tucson Active Management Area, South-Central Arizona, 1987-2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carruth, Rob; Flynn, Pool; Donald, R.; Anderson, Carl E.

2007-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey monitors land subsidence and aquifer-system compaction caused by ground-water depletion in Tucson Basin and Avra Valley - two of the three alluvial basins within the Tucson Active Management Area. In spring 1987, the Global Positioning System was used to measure horizontal and vertical positions for bench marks at 43 sites to establish a network for monitoring land subsidence in Tucson Basin and Avra Valley. Between 1987 and 2005, the original number of subsidence monitoring stations was gradually increased to more than 100 stations to meet the need for information in the growing metropolitan area. Data from approximately 60 stations common to the Global Positioning System surveys done after an initial survey in 1987 are used to document land subsidence. For the periods of comparison, average land-surface deformation generally is less than the maximum subsidence at an individual station and takes into account land-surface recovery from elastic aquifer-system compaction. Between 1987 and 1998, as much as 3.2 inches of subsidence occurred in Tucson Basin and as much as 4 inches of subsidence occurred in Avra Valley. For the 31 stations that are common to both the 1987 and 1998 Global Positioning System surveys, the average subsidence during the 11-year period was about 0.5 inch in Tucson Basin and about 1.2 inches in Avra Valley. For the approximately 60 stations that are common to both the 1998 and 2002 Global Positioning System surveys, the data indicate that as much as 3.5 inches of subsidence occurred in Tucson Basin and as much as 1.1 inches of subsidence occurred in Avra Valley. The average subsidence for the 4-year period is about 0.4 inch in Tucson Basin and 0.6 inch in Avra Valley. Between the 2002 and the 2005 Global Positioning System surveys, the data indicate that as much as 0.2 inch of subsidence occurred in Tucson Basin and as much as 2.2 inches of subsidence occurred in Avra Valley. The average subsidence for the 3-year period is about 0.7 inch in Avra Valley. Between 1987 and 2004-05, land subsidence was greater in Avra Valley than in Tucson Basin on the basis of the average cumulative subsidence for the stations that were common to the original Global Positioning System survey in 1987. The average total subsidence during the 17- to 18-year period was about 1.3 inches in Tucson Basin and about 2.8 inches in Avra Valley. Three stations in Tucson Basin showed subsidence greater than 4 inches for the period - 5 inches at stations C45 and X419 and 4.1 inches at station PA4. In Avra Valley, two stations showed subsidence for the 17- to 18-year period greater than 4 inches - 4.3 inches at station AV25 and 4.8 inches at station SA105. In 1983, fourteen wells were fitted with borehole extensometers to monitor water-level fluctuations and aquifer-system compaction. Continuous records of water level and aquifer-system compaction indicate that as much as 45 feet of water-level decline and 4 inches of aquifer-system compaction occurred in Tucson Basin from January 1989 through December, 2005. In Avra Valley, extensometer data indicate that as much as 55 feet of water-level decline and 1.7 inches of aquifer-system compaction occurred during the same time period. Rates of compaction vary throughout the extensometer network, with the greater rates of compaction being associated with areas of greater water-level decline and more compressible sediments. In Avra Valley, data from the Global Positioning System surveys indicate that more than half of the total subsidence of the land surface may be the result of aquifer-system compaction below the portion of the aquifer instrumented with the vertical extensometers. For the area in the northern part of Tucson Basin between the Rillito and Santa Cruz rivers, an Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar interferogram indicates that about 1.65 inches of subsidence occurred between 2003 and 2006. Between 2002 and 2004, the Global Positioning System

Distributions of phytoplankton carbohydrate, protein and lipid in the world oceans from satellite ocean colour.

PubMed

Roy, Shovonlal

2018-06-01

Energy value of phytoplankton regulates the growth of higher trophic species, affecting the tropic balance and sustainability of marine food webs. Therefore, developing our capability to estimate and monitor, on a global scale, the concentrations of macromolecules that determine phytoplankton energy value, would be invaluable. Reported here are the first estimates of carbohydrate, protein, lipid, and overall energy value of phytoplankton in the world oceans, using ocean-colour data from satellites. The estimates are based on a novel bio-optical method that utilises satellite-derived bio-optical fingerprints of living phytoplankton combined with allometric relationships between phytoplankton cells and cellular macromolecular contents. The annually averaged phytoplankton energy value, per cubic metre of sub-surface ocean, varied from less than 0.1 kJ in subtropical gyres, to 0.5-1.0 kJ in parts of the equatorial, northern and southern latitudes, and rising to >10 kJ in certain coastal and optically complex waters. The annually averaged global stocks of carbohydrate, protein and lipid were 0.044, 0.17 and 0.108 gigatonnes, respectively, with monthly stocks highest in September and lowest in June, over 1997-2013. The fractional contributions of phytoplankton size classes e.g., picoplankton, nanoplankton and microplankton to surface concentrations and global stocks of macromolecules varied considerably across marine biomes classified as Longhurst provinces. Among these provinces, the highest annually averaged surface concentrations of carbohydrate, protein, and lipid were in North-East Atlantic Coastal Shelves, whereas, the lowest concentration of carbohydrate or lipid were in North Atlantic Tropical Gyral, and that of protein was in North Pacific Subtropical Gyre West. The regional accuracy of the estimates and their sensitivity to satellite inputs are quantified from the bio-optical model, which show promise for possible operational monitoring of phytoplankton energy value from satellite ocean colour. Adequate in situ measurements of macromolecules and improved retrievals of inherent optical properties from high-resolution satellite images, would be required to validate these estimates at local sites, and to further improve their accuracy in the world oceans.

Global carbon assimilation system using a local ensemble Kalman filter with multiple ecosystem models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Shupeng; Yi, Xue; Zheng, Xiaogu; Chen, Zhuoqi; Dan, Bo; Zhang, Xuanze

2014-11-01

In this paper, a global carbon assimilation system (GCAS) is developed for optimizing the global land surface carbon flux at 1° resolution using multiple ecosystem models. In GCAS, three ecosystem models, Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator, Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach, and Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange, produce the prior fluxes, and an atmospheric transport model, Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers, is used to calculate atmospheric CO2 concentrations resulting from these prior fluxes. A local ensemble Kalman filter is developed to assimilate atmospheric CO2 data observed at 92 stations to optimize the carbon flux for six land regions, and the Bayesian model averaging method is implemented in GCAS to calculate the weighted average of the optimized fluxes based on individual ecosystem models. The weights for the models are found according to the closeness of their forecasted CO2 concentration to observation. Results of this study show that the model weights vary in time and space, allowing for an optimum utilization of different strengths of different ecosystem models. It is also demonstrated that spatial localization is an effective technique to avoid spurious optimization results for regions that are not well constrained by the atmospheric data. Based on the multimodel optimized flux from GCAS, we found that the average global terrestrial carbon sink over the 2002-2008 period is 2.97 ± 1.1 PgC yr-1, and the sinks are 0.88 ± 0.52, 0.27 ± 0.33, 0.67 ± 0.39, 0.90 ± 0.68, 0.21 ± 0.31, and 0.04 ± 0.08 PgC yr-1 for the North America, South America, Africa, Eurasia, Tropical Asia, and Australia, respectively. This multimodel GCAS can be used to improve global carbon cycle estimation.

The gains in life expectancy by ambient PM2.5 pollution reductions in localities in Nigeria.

PubMed

Etchie, Tunde O; Etchie, Ayotunde T; Adewuyi, Gregory O; Pillarisetti, Ajay; Sivanesan, Saravanadevi; Krishnamurthi, Kannan; Arora, Narendra K

2018-05-01

Global burden of disease estimates reveal that people in Nigeria are living shorter lifespan than the regional or global average life expectancy. Ambient air pollution is a top risk factor responsible for the reduced longevity. But, the magnitude of the loss or the gains in longevity accruing from the pollution reductions, which are capable of driving mitigation interventions in Nigeria, remain unknown. Thus, we estimate the loss, and the gains in longevity resulting from ambient PM 2.5 pollution reductions at the local sub-national level using life table approach. Surface average PM 2.5 concentration datasets covering Nigeria with spatial resolution of ∼1 km were obtained from the global gridded concentration fields, and combined with ∼1 km gridded population of the world (GPWv4), and global administrative unit layers (GAUL) for territorial boundaries classification. We estimate the loss or gains in longevity using population-weighted average pollution level and baseline mortality data for cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer in adults ≥25 years and for respiratory infection in children under 5. As at 2015, there are six "highly polluted", thirty "polluted" and one "moderately polluted" States in Nigeria. People residing in these States lose ∼3.8-4.0, 3.0-3.6 and 2.7 years of life expectancy, respectively, due to the pollution exposure. But, assuming interventions achieve global air quality guideline of 10 μg/m 3 , longevity would increase by 2.6-2.9, 1.9-2.5 and 1.6 years for people in the State-categories, respectively. The longevity gains are indeed high, but to achieve them, mitigation interventions should target emission sources having the highest population exposures. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the Global Multi-Resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010 (GMTED2010) using ICESat geodetic control

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carabajal, C.C.; Harding, D.J.; Boy, J.-P.; Danielson, Jeffrey J.; Gesch, D.B.; Suchdeo, V.P.

2011-01-01

Supported by NASA's Earth Surface and Interior (ESI) Program, we are producing a global set of Ground Control Points (GCPs) derived from the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) altimetry data. From February of 2003, to October of 2009, ICESat obtained nearly global measurements of land topography (?? 86?? latitudes) with unprecedented accuracy, sampling the Earth's surface at discrete ???50 m diameter laser footprints spaced 170 m along the altimetry profiles. We apply stringent editing to select the highest quality elevations, and use these GCPs to characterize and quantify spatially varying elevation biases in Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). In this paper, we present an evaluation of the soon to be released Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010 (GMTED2010). Elevation biases and error statistics have been analyzed as a function of land cover and relief. The GMTED2010 products are a large improvement over previous sources of elevation data at comparable resolutions. RMSEs for all products and terrain conditions are below 7 m and typically are about 4 m. The GMTED2010 products are biased upward with respect to the ICESat GCPs on average by approximately 3 m. ?? 2011 Copyright Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE).

Evaluation of the Global Multi-Resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010 (GMTED2010) Using ICESat Geodetic Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carabajal, Claudia C.; Harding, David J.; Boy, Jean-Paul; Danielson, Jeffrey J.; Gesch, Dean B.; Suchdeo, Vijay P.

2011-01-01

Supported by NASA's Earth Surface and Interior (ESI) Program, we are producing a global set of Ground Control Points (GCPs) derived from the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) altimetry data. From February of 2003, to October of 2009, ICESat obtained nearly global measurements of land topography (+/- 86deg latitudes) with unprecedented accuracy, sampling the Earth's surface at discrete approx.50 m diameter laser footprints spaced 170 m along the altimetry profiles. We apply stringent editing to select the highest quality elevations, and use these GCPs to characterize and quantify spatially varying elevation biases in Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). In this paper, we present an evaluation of the soon to be released Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010 (GMTED2010). Elevation biases and error statistics have been analyzed as a function of land cover and relief. The GMTED2010 products are a large improvement over previous sources of elevation data at comparable resolutions. RMSEs for all products and terrain conditions are below 7 m and typically are about 4 m. The GMTED2010 products are biased upward with respect to the ICESat GCPs on average by approximately 3 m.

A gridded global data set of soil, intact regolith, and sedimentary deposit thicknesses for regional and global land surface modeling

DOE PAGES

Pelletier, Jon D.; Broxton, Patrick D.; Hazenberg, Pieter; ...

2016-01-22

Earth’s terrestrial near-subsurface environment can be divided into relatively porous layers of soil, intact regolith, and sedimentary deposits above unweathered bedrock. Variations in the thicknesses of these layers control the hydrologic and biogeochemical responses of landscapes. Currently, Earth System Models approximate the thickness of these relatively permeable layers above bedrock as uniform globally, despite the fact that their thicknesses vary systematically with topography, climate, and geology. To meet the need for more realistic input data for models, we developed a high-resolution gridded global data set of the average thicknesses of soil, intact regolith, and sedimentary deposits within each 30 arcsecmore » (~ 1 km) pixel using the best available data for topography, climate, and geology as input. Our data set partitions the global land surface into upland hillslope, upland valley bottom, and lowland landscape components and uses models optimized for each landform type to estimate the thicknesses of each subsurface layer. On hillslopes, the data set is calibrated and validated using independent data sets of measured soil thicknesses from the U.S. and Europe and on lowlands using depth to bedrock observations from groundwater wells in the U.S. As a result, we anticipate that the data set will prove useful as an input to regional and global hydrological and ecosystems models.« less

A gridded global data set of soil, intact regolith, and sedimentary deposit thicknesses for regional and global land surface modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelletier, Jon D.; Broxton, Patrick D.; Hazenberg, Pieter; Zeng, Xubin; Troch, Peter A.; Niu, Guo-Yue; Williams, Zachary; Brunke, Michael A.; Gochis, David

2016-03-01

Earth's terrestrial near-subsurface environment can be divided into relatively porous layers of soil, intact regolith, and sedimentary deposits above unweathered bedrock. Variations in the thicknesses of these layers control the hydrologic and biogeochemical responses of landscapes. Currently, Earth System Models approximate the thickness of these relatively permeable layers above bedrock as uniform globally, despite the fact that their thicknesses vary systematically with topography, climate, and geology. To meet the need for more realistic input data for models, we developed a high-resolution gridded global data set of the average thicknesses of soil, intact regolith, and sedimentary deposits within each 30 arcsec (˜1 km) pixel using the best available data for topography, climate, and geology as input. Our data set partitions the global land surface into upland hillslope, upland valley bottom, and lowland landscape components and uses models optimized for each landform type to estimate the thicknesses of each subsurface layer. On hillslopes, the data set is calibrated and validated using independent data sets of measured soil thicknesses from the U.S. and Europe and on lowlands using depth to bedrock observations from groundwater wells in the U.S. We anticipate that the data set will prove useful as an input to regional and global hydrological and ecosystems models. This article was corrected on 2 FEB 2016. See the end of the full text for details.

High-Resolution Thermal Inertia Mapping from the Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mellon, M.T.; Jakosky, B.M.; Kieffer, H.H.; Christensen, P.R.

2000-01-01

High-resolution thermal inertia mapping results are presented, derived from Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) observations of the surface temperature of Mars obtained during the early portion of the MGS mapping mission. Thermal inertia is the key property controlling the diurnal surface temperature variations, and is dependent on the physical character of the top few centimeters of the surface. It represents a complex combination of particle size, rock abundance, exposures of bedrock, and degree of induration. In this work we describe the derivation of thermal inertia from TES data, present global scale analysis, and place these results into context with earlier work. A global map of nighttime thermal-bolometer-based thermal inertia is presented at 14?? per pixel resolution, with approximately 63% coverage between 50??S and 70??N latitude. Global analysis shows a similar pattern of high and low thermal inertia as seen in previous Viking low-resolution mapping. Significantly more detail is present in the high-resolution TES thermal inertia. This detail represents horizontal small-scale variability in the nature of the surface. Correlation with albedo indicates the presence of a previously undiscovered surface unit of moderate-to-high thermal inertia and intermediate albedo. This new unit has a modal peak thermal inertia of 180-250 J m-2 K-1 s-12 and a narrow range of albedo near 0.24. The unit, covering a significant fraction of the surface, typically surrounds the low thermal inertia regions and may comprise a deposit of indurated fine material. Local 3-km-resolution maps are also presented as examples of eolian, fluvial, and volcanic geology. Some impact crater rims and intracrater dunes show higher thermal inertias than the surrounding terrain; thermal inertia of aeolian deposits such as intracrater dunes may be related to average particle size. Outflow channels and valleys consistently show higher thermal inertias than the surrounding terrain. Generally, correlations between spatial variations in thermal inertia and geologic features suggest a relationship between the hundred-meter-scale morphology and the centimeter-scale surface layer. ?? 2000 Academic Press.

Using Historical Precipitation, Temperature, and Runoff Observations to Evaluate Evaporation Formulations in Land Surface Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; Mahanama, P. P.

2012-01-01

Key to translating soil moisture memory into subseasonal precipitation and air temperature forecast skill is a realistic treatment of evaporation in the forecast system used - in particular, a realistic treatment of how evaporation responds to variations in soil moisture. The inherent soil moisture-evaporation relationships used in today's land surface models (LSMs), however, arguably reflect little more than guesswork given the lack of evaporation and soil moisture data at the spatial scales represented by regional and global models. Here we present a new approach for evaluating this critical aspect of LSMs. Seasonally averaged precipitation is used as a proxy for seasonally-averaged soil moisture, and seasonally-averaged air temperature is used as a proxy for seasonally-averaged evaporation (e.g., more evaporative cooling leads to cooler temperatures) the relationship between historical precipitation and temperature measurements accordingly mimics in certain important ways nature's relationship between soil moisture and evaporation. Additional information on the relationship is gleaned from joint analysis of precipitation and streamflow measurements. An experimental framework that utilizes these ideas to guide the development of an improved soil moisture-evaporation relationship is described and demonstrated.

A second-order Budkyo-type parameterization of landsurface hydrology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andreou, S. A.; Eagleson, P. S.

1982-01-01

A simple, second order parameterization of the water fluxes at a land surface for use as the appropriate boundary condition in general circulation models of the global atmosphere was developed. The derived parameterization incorporates the high nonlinearities in the relationship between the near surface soil moisture and the evaporation, runoff and percolation fluxes. Based on the one dimensional statistical dynamic derivation of the annual water balance, it makes the transition to short term prediction of the moisture fluxes, through a Taylor expansion around the average annual soil moisture. A comparison of the suggested parameterization is made with other existing techniques and available measurements. A thermodynamic coupling is applied in order to obtain estimations of the surface ground temperature.

Hiatus on the upward staircase of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, S. P.; Kosaka, Y.

2016-12-01

Since the 19th century, global-mean surface temperature (GMST) has risen in staircase-like stages due to contributions from both radiative forcing and internal variability. Our earlier study showed that tropical Pacific variability, specifically the La Nina-like cooling, caused the current hiatus of global warming. We have extended the Pacific Ocean-Global Atmosphere (POGA) pacemaker experiment back to the late 19th century, by restoring tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies towards the observed history. POGA reproduces annual-mean GMST variability with high correlation. We quantify relative contributions from the radiative forcing and tropical Pacific variability for various epochs of the staircase. Beyond the global mean, POGA also captures observed regional trends of surface temperature for these periods, especially over the tropical Indian Ocean, Indian subcontinent, North and South Pacific and North America. The POGA effect for the recent hiatus is comparable in magnitude with that at the beginning of the 20th century, but lasts the longest in duration over the past 150 years. The attendant strengthening of the Pacific trade winds since the 1990s is unprecedented on the instrumental record. To the extent that POGA captures much of the internal variability in GMST, we can infer radiatively forced GMST response. This method has the advantage of being independent of the model's radiative forcing and climate sensitivity. While raw data show a warming of 0.9 degree C for the recent five-year period of 2010-2014 relative to 1900, our new calculation yields a much higher anthropogenic warming of 1.2 C after correcting for the internal variability effect. This indicates that the task is more challenging than thought to implement the Paris consensus of limiting global average temperature change to below 2 C above preindustrial levels.

Quantitative Assessment of the Integrated Response in Global Heat and Moisture Budgets to Changing Solar Irradiance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, Warren B.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Michael; Sharber, James (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Earlier, we found time sequences of basin- and global-average upper ocean temperature (that is, diabatic heat storage above the main pycnocline) for 40 years from 1955-1994 and of sea surface temperature for 95 years from 1900-1994 associated with changes in the Sun's radiative forcing on decadal and interdecadal timescales, lagging by 10 deg.- 30 deg. of phase and confined to the upper 60-120 m. Yet, the observed changes in upper ocean temperature (approx. 0.1 K) were approximately twice those expected from the Stefan-Boltzmann black-body radiation law for the Earth's surface, with phase lags (0 deg. to 30 deg. of phase) much shorter than the 90 deg. phase shift expected as well. Moreover, White et al. (1997, 1998) found the Earth's global decadal mode in covarying SST and SLP anomalies phase locked to the decadal signal in the Sun's irradiance. Yet, Allan (2000) found this decadal signal also characterized by patterns similar to those observed on biennial and interannual time scales; that is, the Troposphere Biennial Oscillation (TBO) and the El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This suggested that small changes in the Sun's total irradiance could excite this global decadal mode in the Earth's ocean-atmosphere-terrestrial system similar to those excited internally on biennial and interannual period scales. This is a significant finding, proving that energy budget models (that is, models based on globally-averaged radiation balances) yield unrealistic responses. Thus, the true response must include positive and negative feedbacks in the Earth's ocean-atmosphere-terrestrial system as its internal mode (that is, the natural mode of the system) respond in damped resonance to quasi-periodic decadal changes in the Sun's irradiance. Moreover, these responses are not much different from those occurring internally on biennial and interannual period scales.

Spatial distribution and source apportionment of PFASs in surface sediments from five lake regions, China

PubMed Central

Qi, Yanjie; Huo, Shouliang; Xi, Beidou; Hu, Shibin; Zhang, Jingtian; He, Zhuoshi

2016-01-01

Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) have been found in environment globally. However, studies on PFAS occurrence in sediments of lakes or reservoirs remain relatively scarce. In this study, two hundred and sixty-two surface sediment samples were collected from forty-eight lakes and two reservoirs all over China. Average PFAS concentrations in surface sediments from each lake or reservoir varied from 0.086 ng/g dw to 5.79 ng/g dw with an average of 1.15 ng/g dw. Among five lake regions, average PFAS concentrations for the lakes from Eastern Plain Region were the highest. Perfluorooctanoic acid, perfluoroundecanoic acid and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) were the predominant PFASs in surface sediments. The significant positive correlations between PFAS concentrations and total organic carbon, total nitrogen and total phosphorus contents in sediments revealed the influences of sedimentary characteristics on PFAS occurrence. A two-dimensional hierarchical cluster analysis heat map was depicted to analyze the possible origins of sediments and individual PFAS. The food-packaging, textile, electroplating, firefighting and semiconductor industry emission sources and the precious metals and coating industry emission sources were identified as the main sources by two receptor models, with contributions of 77.7 and 22.3% to the total concentrations of C4-C14- perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids and PFOS, respectively. PMID:26947748

Synchronization Experiments With A Global Coupled Model of Intermediate Complexity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selten, Frank; Hiemstra, Paul; Shen, Mao-Lin

2013-04-01

In the super modeling approach an ensemble of imperfect models are connected through nudging terms that nudge the solution of each model to the solution of all other models in the ensemble. The goal is to obtain a synchronized state through a proper choice of connection strengths that closely tracks the trajectory of the true system. For the super modeling approach to be successful, the connections should be dense and strong enough for synchronization to occur. In this study we analyze the behavior of an ensemble of connected global atmosphere-ocean models of intermediate complexity. All atmosphere models are connected to the same ocean model through the surface fluxes of heat, water and momentum, the ocean is integrated using weighted averaged surface fluxes. In particular we analyze the degree of synchronization between the atmosphere models and the characteristics of the ensemble mean solution. The results are interpreted using a low order atmosphere-ocean toy model.

Measurement of solar radiation at the Earth's surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bartman, F. L.

1982-01-01

The characteristics of solar energy arriving at the surface of the Earth are defined and the history of solar measurements in the United States presented. Radiation and meteorological measurements being made at solar energy meteorological research and training sites and calibration procedures used there are outlined. Data illustrating the annual variation in daily solar radiation at Ann Arbor, Michigan and the diurnal variation in radiation at Albuquerque, New Mexico are presented. Direct normal solar radiation received at Albuquerque is contrasted with that received at Maynard, Massachusetts. Average measured global radiation for a period of one year for four locations under clear skies, 50% cloud cover, and 100% cloud cover is given and compared with the solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere. The May distribution of mean daily direct solar radiation and mean daily global solar radiation over the United States is presented. The effects of turbidity on the direct and circumsolar radiation are shown.

The influence of sea surface temperature anomalies on low-frequency variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manganello, Julia V.

2008-05-01

The influence of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) on multi-year persistence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the second half of the twentieth century is investigated using the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) Atmospheric GCM (AGCM) with an emphasis on isolating the geographic location of the SSTA that produce this influence. The present study focuses on calculating the atmospheric response to the SSTA averaged over 1988 1995 (1961 1968) corresponding to the observed period of strong persistence of the positive (negative) phase of the decadal NAO. The model response to the global 1988 1995 average SSTA shows a statistically significant large-scale pattern characteristic of the positive phase of the NAO. Forcing with the global 1961 1968 average SSTA generates a NAO of the opposite polarity compared to observations. However, all large-scale features both in the model and observations during this period are weaker in magnitude and less significant compared to 1988 1995. Additional idealized experiments show that over the northern center of the NAO the non-linear component of the forced response appears to be quite important and acts to enhance the positive NAO signal. On the other hand, over the southern center where the model response is the strongest, it is also essentially linear. The 1988 1995 average SSTA restricted to the western tropical Pacific region produce a positive NAO remarkably similar in structure but stronger in magnitude than the model response to the global and tropical Indo-Pacific 1988 1995 forcing. A 200-hPa geopotential height response in these experiments shows a positive anomaly over the southern center of the NAO embedded in the Rossby wave trains propagating from the western tropical Pacific. Indian Ocean SSTA lead to much weaker positive NAO primarily through the effect on its northern center. SST forcing confined to the North Atlantic north of equator does not produce a response statistically different from the control simulation, suggesting that it is not strong enough to significantly affect the phase of the decadal NAO. Inclusion of the South Atlantic north of 45° south does not change this result.

Methane emissions to the troposphere from the Amazon floodplain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Devol, Allen H.; Richey, Jeffrey E.; Clark, Wayne A.; King, Stagg L.; Martinelli, Luiz A.

1988-01-01

The magnitudes of CH4 emissions to the troposphere from the Amazon River floodplain and the mechanism of these emissions were investigated using the data of 94 individual flux measurements made along a 1700-km stretch of the river during July/August 1985. The overall average rate of CH4 emission from wetlands was found to be 390 mg CH4/sq m per day, with the highest emissions (590 mg CH4/sq m per day) attributed to the water surfaces covered by aquatic macrophytes. Ebullition was the dominant mechanism of emission, accounting for 85 percent of the total. Surface-water CH4 concentrations were highly supersaturated, averaging 6.4 micromolar. The annual emission of CH4 from the Amazon Basin to the troposphere, estimated from the area and the known emission rate, is about 10 CH4 Tg/yr, indicating the importance of the area in the global atmospheric CH4 cycle.

Shear velocity profiles in the crust and lithospheric mantle across Tibet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agius, M. R.; Lebedev, S.

2010-12-01

We constrain variations in the crustal and lithospheric structure across Tibet, using phase velocities of seismic surface waves. The data are seismograms recorded by broadband instruments of permanent and temporary networks within and around the plateau. Phase-velocity measurements are performed in broad period ranges using an elaborate recent implementation of the 2-station method. A combination of the cross-correlation and multimode-waveform-inversion measurements using tens to hundreds of seismograms per station pair produces robust, accurate phase-velocity curves for Rayleigh and Love waves. We use our new measurements to infer phase-velocity variations and to constrain S-velocity profiles in different parts of the plateau, including radial anisotropy and depths of lithospheric discontinuities. We observe a mid-crustal low-velocity zone (LVZ) in the 20-45 km depth range across the plateau, with S-velocities within a 3.2-3.5 km/s range. This LVZ coincides with a low-resistivity layer inferred from magnetotelluric studies, interpreted as evidence for partial melting in the middle crust. Surface-wave data are also consistent with radial anisotropy in this layer, indicative of horizontal flow. At the north-eastern boundary of the plateau, past the Kunlun Fault, the mid-crustal LVZ, in the sense of an S-velocity decrease with depth in the 15-25 km depth range, is not required by the surface-wave data although the velocity is still relatively low. The mantle-lithosphere structure shows a pronounced contrast between the south-western and central-northern parts of the plateau. The south-west is underlain by a thick, high-velocity, craton-like lithospheric mantle. Below central Lhasa the uppermost mantle appears to be close to global average with an increase in velocity between 150 - 250 km depth. Beneath central and northern Tibet, the average S velocity between the Moho and 200 km depth is close to the global continental average (4.5 km/s). In order to investigate the finer detail of the lithosphere in the North we perform an extensive series of test inversions. We find that surface-wave dispersion measurements alone are consistent both with models that have low S velocity just beneath the Moho, increasing with depth below, and with models that display a thin high-velocity mantle lid underlain by a low-velocity zone (asthenosphere). To resolve this non-uniqueness from the inversion model, we combine our surface-wave measurements in the Qiangtang Block with receiver-function constraints on the Moho depth, and Sn constraints on the uppermost mantle S velocities. We show that the data is matched significantly better with models that contain a thin, high-velocity lithosphere (up to 90 km thick) underlain by a low-velocity zone than by models with no wave-speed decrease between the Moho and ~100 km depth. In the deeper upper mantle (below ~150 km depth), S velocity increases and is likely to exceed the global average value.

Do mitigation strategies reduce global warming potential in the northern U.S. corn belt?

PubMed

Johnson, Jane M-F; Archer, David W; Weyers, Sharon L; Barbour, Nancy W

2011-01-01

Agricultural management practices that enhance C sequestration, reduce greenhouse gas emission (nitrous oxide [N₂O], methane [CH₄], and carbon dioxide [CO₂]), and promote productivity are needed to mitigate global warming without sacrificing food production. The objectives of the study were to compare productivity, greenhouse gas emission, and change in soil C over time and to assess whether global warming potential and global warming potential per unit biomass produced were reduced through combined mitigation strategies when implemented in the northern U.S. Corn Belt. The systems compared were (i) business as usual (BAU); (ii) maximum C sequestration (MAXC); and (iii) optimum greenhouse gas benefit (OGGB). Biomass production, greenhouse gas flux change in total and organic soil C, and global warming potential were compared among the three systems. Soil organic C accumulated only in the surface 0 to 5 cm. Three-year average emission of N₂O and CH was similar among all management systems. When integrated from planting to planting, N₂O emission was similar for MAXC and OGGB systems, although only MAXC was fertilized. Overall, the three systems had similar global warming potential based on 4-yr changes in soil organic C, but average rotation biomass was less in the OGGB systems. Global warming potential per dry crop yield was the least for the MAXC system and the most for OGGB system. This suggests management practices designed to reduce global warming potential can be achieved without a loss of productivity. For example, MAXC systems over time may provide sufficient soil C sequestration to offset associated greenhouse gas emission. by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

The effect of moonlight on observation of cloud cover at night, and application to cloud climatology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hahn, Carole J.; Warren, Stephen G.; London, Julius

1995-01-01

Ten years of nighttime weather observations from the Northern Hemisphere in December were classified according to the illuminance of moonlight or twilight on the cloud tops, and a threshold level of illuminance was determined, above which the clouds are apparently detected adequately. This threshold corresponds to light from a full moon at an elevation angle of 6 deg, light from a partial moon at higher elevation, or twilight from the sun less than 9 deg bvelow the horizon. It permits the use of about 38% of the observations made with the sun below the horizon. The computed diurnal cycles of total cloud cover are altered considerably when this moonlight criterion is imposed. Maximum cloud cover over much of the ocean is now found to be at night or in the morning, whereas computations obtained without benefit of the moonlight criterion, as in our published atlases, showed the time of maximum to be noon or early afternoon in many regions. The diurnal cycles of total cloud cover we obtain are compared with those of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) for a few regions; they are generally in better agreement if the moonlight criterion is imposed on the surface observations. Using the moonlight criterion, we have analyzed 10 years (1982-91) of surface weather observations over land and ocean, worldwide, for total cloud cover and for the frequency of occurrence of clear sky, fog, and precipitation. The global average cloud cover (average of day and night) is about 2% higher if the moonlight criterion is imposed than if all observations are used. The difference is greater in winter than in summer, because of the fewer hours of darkness in summer. The amplitude of the annual cycle of total cloud cover over the Arctic Ocean and at the South Pole is diminished by a few percent when the moonlight criterion is imposed. The average cloud cover for 1982-91 is found to be 55% for Northern Hemisphere land, 53% for Southern Hemisphere land, 66% for Northern Hemisphere ocean, and 70% for Southern Hemisphere ocean, giving a global average of 64%. The global average for daytime is 64.6%; for nighttime 63.3%.

A framework for global diurnally-resolved observations of Land Surface Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghent, D.; Remedios, J.; Pinnock, S.

2013-12-01

Land surface temperature (LST) is the radiative skin temperature of the land, and is one of the key parameters in the physics of land-surface processes on regional and global scales. Being a key boundary condition in land surface models, which determine the surface to atmosphere fluxes of heat, water and carbon; thus influencing cloud cover, precipitation and atmospheric chemistry predictions within Global models, the requirement for global diurnal observations of LST is well founded. Earth Observation satellites offer an opportunity to obtain global coverage of LST, with the appropriate exploitation of data from multiple instruments providing a capacity to resolve the diurnal cycle on a global scale. Here we present a framework for the production of global, diurnally resolved, data sets for LST which is a key request from users of LST data. We will show how the sampling of both geostationary and low earth orbit data sets could conceptually be employed to build combined, multi-sensor, pole-to-pole data sets. Although global averages already exist for individual instruments and merging of geostationary based LST is already being addressed operationally (Freitas, et al., 2013), there are still a number of important challenges to overcome. In this presentation, we will consider three of the issues still open in LST remote sensing: 1) the consistency amongst retrievals; 2) the clear-sky bias and its quantification; and 3) merging methods and the propagation of uncertainties. For example, the combined use of both geostationary earth orbit (GEO) and low earth orbit (LEO) data, and both infra-red and microwave data are relatively unexplored but are necessary to make the most progress. Hence this study will suggest what is state-of-the-art and how considerable advances can be made, accounting also for recent improvements in techniques and data quality. The GlobTemperature initiative under the Data User Element of ESA's 4th Earth Observation Envelope Programme (2013-2017), which aims to support the wider uptake of global-scale satellite LST by the research and operational user communities, will be a particularly important element in the development and subsequent provision of global diurnal LST. This new project, with its emphasis on promoting the coherence and openness of interactions within the LST and user communities, will be well placed to deliver appropriate data, engage a wide audience and hence be a key promoter of LST research and development for the LST community. References Freitas, S.C., Trigo, I.F., Macedo, J., Barroso, C., Silva, R., & Perdigao, R., 2013, Land surface temperature from multiple geostationary satellites, International Journal of Remote Sensing, 34, 3051-3068.

Global volcanic aerosol properties derived from emissions, 1990-2015, using CESM1(WACCM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, Michael; Schmidt, Anja; Easter, Richard; Solomon, Susan; Kinnison, Douglas; Ghan, Steven; Neely, Ryan; Marsh, Daniel; Conley, Andrew; Bardeen, Charles; Gettelman, Andrew

2016-04-01

Accurate representation of global stratospheric aerosols from volcanic and non-volcanic sulfur emissions is key to understanding the cooling effects and ozone-losses that may be linked to volcanic activity. Attribution of climate variability to volcanic activity is of particular interest in relation to the post-2000 slowing in the rate of global average temperature increases. We have compiled a database of volcanic SO2 emissions and plume altitudes for eruptions from 1990 to 2015, and developed a new prognostic capability for simulating stratospheric sulfate aerosols in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We combined these with other non-volcanic emissions of sulfur sources to reconstruct global aerosol properties from 1990 to 2015. Our calculations show remarkable agreement with ground-based lidar observations of stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD), and with in situ measurements of stratospheric aerosol surface area density (SAD). These properties are key parameters in calculating the radiative and chemical effects of stratospheric aerosols. Our SAOD calculations represent a clear improvement over available satellite-based analyses, which generally ignore aerosol extinction below 15 km, a region that can contain the vast majority of stratospheric aerosol extinction at mid- and high-latitudes. Our SAD calculations greatly improve on that provided for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative, which misses about 60% of the SAD measured in situ on average during both volcanically active and volcanically quiescent periods. The stark differences in SAOD and SAD compared to other data sets will have significant effects on calculations of the radiative forcing of climate and global stratospheric chemistry over the period 2005-2015. In light of these results, the impact of volcanic aerosols in reducing the rate of global average temperature increases since the year 2000 should be revisited. We have made our calculated aerosol properties from January 1990 to November 2015 available for public download.

Irrigation as an Historical Climate Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cook, Benjamin I.; Shukla, Sonali P.; Puma, Michael J.; Nazarenko, Larissa S.

2014-01-01

Irrigation is the single largest anthropogenic water use, a modification of the land surface that significantly affects surface energy budgets, the water cycle, and climate. Irrigation, however, is typically not included in standard historical general circulation model (GCM) simulations along with other anthropogenic and natural forcings. To investigate the importance of irrigation as an anthropogenic climate forcing, we conduct two 5-member ensemble GCM experiments. Both are setup identical to the historical forced (anthropogenic plus natural) scenario used in version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, but in one experiment we also add water to the land surface using a dataset of historically estimated irrigation rates. Irrigation has a negligible effect on the global average radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere, but causes significant cooling of global average surface air temperatures over land and dampens regional warming trends. This cooling is regionally focused and is especially strong in Western North America, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Asia. Irrigation enhances cloud cover and precipitation in these same regions, except for summer in parts of Monsoon Asia, where irrigation causes a reduction in monsoon season precipitation. Irrigation cools the surface, reducing upward fluxes of longwave radiation (increasing net longwave), and increases cloud cover, enhancing shortwave reflection (reducing net shortwave). The relative magnitude of these two processes causes regional increases (northern India) or decreases (Central Asia, China) in energy availability at the surface and top of the atmosphere. Despite these changes in net radiation, however, climate responses are due primarily to larger magnitude shifts in the Bowen ratio from sensible to latent heating. Irrigation impacts on temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables are regionally significant, even while other anthropogenic forcings (anthropogenic aerosols, greenhouse gases, etc.) dominate the long term climate evolution in the simulations. To better constrain the magnitude and uncertainties of irrigation-forced climate anomalies, irrigation should therefore be considered as another important anthropogenic climate forcing in the next generation of historical climate simulations and multimodel assessments.

Comparison of Near-Surface Air Temperatures and MODIS Ice-Surface Temperatures at Summit, Greenland (2008-2013)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shuman, Christopher A.; Hall, Dorothy K.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.; Mefford, Thomas K.; Schnaubelt, Michael J.

2014-01-01

We have investigated the stability of the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) infrared-derived ice surface temperature (IST) data from Terra for use as a climate quality data record. The availability of climate quality air temperature data (TA) from a NOAA Global Monitoring Division observatory at Greenlands Summit station has enabled this high temporal resolution study of MODIS ISTs. During a 5 year period (July 2008 to August 2013), more than 2500 IST values were compared with 3-minute average TA values derived from the 1-minute data from NOAAs primary 2 m air temperature sensor. These data enabled an expected small offset between air and surface temperatures at this the ice sheet location to be investigated over multiple annual cycles.

Fluxes by eddy correlation over heterogeneous landscape: How shall we apply the Reynolds average?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobosy, R.

2007-12-01

Top-down estimates of carbon exchange across the earth's surface are implicitly an integral scheme, deriving bulk exchanges over large areas. Bottom-up estimates explicitly integrate the individual components of exchange to derive a bulk value. If these approaches are to be properly compared, their estimates should represent the same quantity. Over heterogeneous landscape, eddy-covariance flux computations from towers or aircraft intended for comparison with top-down approach face a question of the proper definition of the mean or base state, the departures from which yield the fluxes by Reynolds averaging. 1)≠Use a global base state derived over a representative sample of the surface, insensitive to land use. The departure quantities then fail to sum to zero over any subsample representing an individual surface type, violating Reynolds criteria. Yet fluxes derived from such subsamples can be directly composed into a bulk flux, globally satisfying Reynolds criteria. 2)≠Use a different base state for each surface type. satisfying Reynolds criteria individually. Then some of the flux may get missed if a surface's characteristics significantly bias its base state. Base state≠(2) is natural for tower samples. Base state≠(1) is natural for airborne samples over heterogeneous landscape, especially in patches smaller than an appropriate averaging length. It appears (1) incorporates a more realistic sample of the flux, though desirably there would be no practical difference between the two schemes. The schemes are related by the expression w¯*a*)C - w¯'a¯')C = w¯'ã¯)C+ wtilde ¯a¯')C+ wtilde ¯ã¯)C Here w is vertical motion, and a is some scalar, such as CO2. The star denotes departure from the global base state≠(1), and the prime from the base state≠(2), defined only over surface class≠C. The overbar with round bracket denotes average over samples drawn from class≠C, determined by footprint model. Thus a¯')C = 0 but a¯*)C ≠ 0 in general. The tilde denotes the departure of base-state≠(2) from base-state≠(1). It represents surface≠C's characteristic bias. The equation is defined only over class≠C. A similar equation applies to each surface class. The first and second righthand terms express interaction of the departure quantities with surface≠C's characteristic bias. These terms are zero if the base states are simple means. The third term becomes important if class C has a significant bias both in vertical motion and in its characteristic values of a. A practical example from 2005 June 18 at 1015 LST in Illinois is illustrative. Turbulence measurements were made by aircraft at 20≠m above ground along a 50≠km track approximately evenly divided between corn and soybean. Corn (type≠C) was growing quickly, increasing the mixing ratio of moisture (r) and reducing that of CO2 (a), relative to soybean. Soybean characteristically heated the air and favored updrafts. These biases were evident in r¯*)C, a¯*)C, θ¯*)C, and w¯*)C relative to their corresponding averages over soybean. In particular the bias in CO2 mixing ratio, negative over corn and positive over soybean, was about 20% of the standard deviation of a*. Nevertheless, neither surface type strongly favored vertical motion, giving the encouraging result that the two approaches do not differ by more than an insignificant few per cent. The theoretical analysis indicates care, however, where extensive areas of both bare soil and vegetated land may enhance the bias in vertical motion between different components of the landscape.

CERES Monthly Gridded Single Satellite TOA and Surfaces/Clouds (SFC) data in HDF (CER_SFC_Terra-FM2-MODIS_Edition2A)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A. (Principal Investigator)

The Monthly Gridded TOA/Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SFC) product contains a month of space and time averaged Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The SFC is also produced for combinations of scanner instruments. All instantaneous shortwave, longwave, and window fluxes at the Top-of-the-Atmosphere (TOA) and surface from the CERES SSF product for a month are sorted by 1-degree spatial regions and by the local hour of observation. The mean of the instantaneous fluxes for a given region-hour bin is determined and recorded on the SFC along with other flux statistics and scene information. These average fluxes are given for both clear-sky and total-sky scenes. The regional cloud properties are column averaged and are included on the SFC. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-01-01; Stop_Date=2003-12-31] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=100] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1 degree; Longitude_Resolution=1 degree; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=100 km - < 250 km or approximately 1 degree - < 2.5 degrees; Temporal_Resolution=1 hour; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Hourly - < Daily].

CERES Monthly Gridded Single Satellite TOA and Surfaces/Clouds (SFC) data in HDF (CER_SFC_Terra-FM2-MODIS_Edition2C)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A. (Principal Investigator)

The Monthly Gridded TOA/Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SFC) product contains a month of space and time averaged Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The SFC is also produced for combinations of scanner instruments. All instantaneous shortwave, longwave, and window fluxes at the Top-of-the-Atmosphere (TOA) and surface from the CERES SSF product for a month are sorted by 1-degree spatial regions and by the local hour of observation. The mean of the instantaneous fluxes for a given region-hour bin is determined and recorded on the SFC along with other flux statistics and scene information. These average fluxes are given for both clear-sky and total-sky scenes. The regional cloud properties are column averaged and are included on the SFC. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-01-01; Stop_Date=2005-12-31] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=100] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1 degree; Longitude_Resolution=1 degree; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=100 km - < 250 km or approximately 1 degree - < 2.5 degrees; Temporal_Resolution=1 hour; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Hourly - < Daily].

CERES Monthly Gridded Single Satellite TOA and Surfaces/Clouds (SFC) data in HDF (CER_SFC_Terra-FM1-MODIS_Edition2B)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A. (Principal Investigator)

The Monthly Gridded TOA/Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SFC) product contains a month of space and time averaged Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The SFC is also produced for combinations of scanner instruments. All instantaneous shortwave, longwave, and window fluxes at the Top-of-the-Atmosphere (TOA) and surface from the CERES SSF product for a month are sorted by 1-degree spatial regions and by the local hour of observation. The mean of the instantaneous fluxes for a given region-hour bin is determined and recorded on the SFC along with other flux statistics and scene information. These average fluxes are given for both clear-sky and total-sky scenes. The regional cloud properties are column averaged and are included on the SFC. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-01-01; Stop_Date=2003-10-31] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=100] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1 degree; Longitude_Resolution=1 degree; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=100 km - < 250 km or approximately 1 degree - < 2.5 degrees; Temporal_Resolution=1 hour; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Hourly - < Daily].

CERES Monthly Gridded Single Satellite TOA and Surfaces/Clouds (SFC) data in HDF (CER_SFC_Aqua-FM3-MODIS_Edition2A)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A. (Principal Investigator)

The Monthly Gridded TOA/Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SFC) product contains a month of space and time averaged Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The SFC is also produced for combinations of scanner instruments. All instantaneous shortwave, longwave, and window fluxes at the Top-of-the-Atmosphere (TOA) and surface from the CERES SSF product for a month are sorted by 1-degree spatial regions and by the local hour of observation. The mean of the instantaneous fluxes for a given region-hour bin is determined and recorded on the SFC along with other flux statistics and scene information. These average fluxes are given for both clear-sky and total-sky scenes. The regional cloud properties are column averaged and are included on the SFC. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-01-01; Stop_Date=2005-12-31] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=100] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1 degree; Longitude_Resolution=1 degree; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=100 km - < 250 km or approximately 1 degree - < 2.5 degrees; Temporal_Resolution=1 hour; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Hourly - < Daily].

Modeling falling groundwater tables in major cities of the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutanudjaja, E.; Erkens, G.

2015-12-01

Groundwater use and its over-consumption are one of the major drivers in the hydrology of many major cities in the world, particularly in delta regions. Yet, a global assessment to identify cities with declining groundwater table problems has not been done yet. In this study we used the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (10 km resolution, for 1960-2010). Using this model, we globally calculated groundwater recharge and river discharge/surface water levels, as well as global water demand and abstraction from ground- and surface water resources. The output of PCR-GLOBWB model was then used to force a groundwater MODFLOW-based model simulating spatio-temporal groundwater head dynamics, including groundwater head declines in all major cities - mainly in delta regions - due to escalation in abstraction of groundwater to meet increasing water demand. Using these coupled models, we managed to identify a number of critical cities having groundwater table falling rates above 50 cm/year (average in 2000-2010), such as Barcelona, Houston, Los Angeles, Mexico City, New York, Rome and many large cities in China, Libya, India and Pakistan, as well as in Middle East and Central Asia regions. However, our simulation results overestimate the depletion rates in San Jose, Tokyo, Venice, and other cities where groundwater usages have been aggressively managed and replaced by importing surface water from other places. Moreover, our simulation might underestimate the declining groundwater head trends in some familiar cases, such as Bangkok (12 cm/year), Ho Chi Minh City (34 cm/year), and Jakarta (26 cm/year). The underestimation was due to an over-optimistic model assumption in allocating surface water for satisfying urban water needs. In reality, many big cities, although they are located in wet regions and have abundant surface water availability, still strongly rely on groundwater sources due to inadequate facilities to treat and distribute surface water resources.

Modeling falling groundwater tables in major cities of the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutanudjaja, Edwin; Erkens, Gilles

2016-04-01

Groundwater use and its over-consumption are one of the major drivers in the hydrology of many major cities in the world, particularly in delta regions. Yet, a global assessment to identify cities with declining groundwater table problems has not been done yet. In this study we used the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (10 km resolution, for 1960-2010). Using this model, we globally calculated groundwater recharge and river discharge/surface water levels, as well as global water demand and abstraction from ground- and surface water resources. The output of PCR-GLOBWB model was then used to force a groundwater MODFLOW-based model simulating spatio-temporal groundwater head dynamics, including groundwater head declines in all major cities - mainly in delta regions - due to escalation in abstraction of groundwater to meet increasing water demand. Using these coupled models, we managed to identify a number of critical cities having groundwater table falling rates above 50 cm/year (average in 2000-2010), such as Barcelona, Houston, Los Angeles, Mexico City, New York, Rome and many large cities in China, Libya, India and Pakistan, as well as in Middle East and Central Asia regions. However, our simulation results overestimate the depletion rates in San Jose, Tokyo, Venice, and other cities where groundwater usages have been aggressively managed and replaced by importing surface water from other places. Moreover, our simulation might underestimate the declining groundwater head trends in some familiar cases, such as Bangkok (12 cm/year), Ho Chi Minh City (34 cm/year), and Jakarta (26 cm/year). The underestimation was due to an over-optimistic model assumption in allocating surface water for satisfying urban water needs. In reality, many big cities, although they are located in wet regions and have abundant surface water availability, still strongly rely on groundwater sources due to inadequate facilities to treat and distribute surface water resources.

A Comparison of Two Methods for Initiating Air Mass Back Trajectories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putman, A.; Posmentier, E. S.; Faiia, A. M.; Sonder, L. J.; Feng, X.

2014-12-01

Lagrangian air mass tracking programs in back cast mode are a powerful tool for estimating the water vapor source of precipitation events. The altitudes above the precipitation site where particle's back trajectories begin influences the source estimation. We assume that precipitation comes from water vapor in condensing regions of the air column, so particles are placed in proportion to an estimated condensation profile. We compare two methods for estimating where condensation occurs and the resulting evaporation sites for 63 events at Barrow, AK. The first method (M1) uses measurements from a 35 GHz vertically resolved cloud radar (MMCR), and algorithms developed by Zhao and Garrett1 to calculate precipitation rate. The second method (M2) uses the Global Data Assimilation System reanalysis data in a lofting model. We assess how accurately M2, developed for global coverage, will perform in absence of direct cloud observations. Results from the two methods are statistically similar. The mean particle height estimated by M2 is, on average, 695 m (s.d. = 1800 m) higher than M1. The corresponding average vapor source estimated by M2 is 1.5⁰ (s.d. = 5.4⁰) south of M1. In addition, vapor sources for M2 relative to M1 have ocean surface temperatures averaging 1.1⁰C (s.d. = 3.5⁰C) warmer, and reported ocean surface relative humidities 0.31% (s.d. = 6.1%) drier. All biases except the latter are statistically significant (p = 0.02 for each). Results were skewed by events where M2 estimated very high altitudes of condensation. When M2 produced an average particle height less than 5000 m (89% of events), M2 estimated mean particle heights 76 m (s.d. = 741 m) higher than M1, corresponding to a vapor source 0.54⁰ (s.d. = 4.2⁰) south of M1. The ocean surface at the vapor source was an average of 0.35⁰C (s.d. = 2.35⁰C) warmer and ocean surface relative humidities were 0.02% (s.d. = 5.5%) wetter. None of the biases was statistically significant. If the vapor source meteorology estimated by M2 is used to determine vapor isotopic properties it would produce results similar to M1 in all cases except the occasional very high cloud. The methods strive to balance a sufficient number of tracked air masses for meaningful vapor source estimation with minimal computational time. Zhao, C and Garrett, T.J. 2008, J. Geophys. Res.

Estimating Long Term Surface Soil Moisture in the GCIP Area From Satellite Microwave Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Owe, Manfred; deJeu, Vrije; VandeGriend, Adriaan A.

2000-01-01

Soil moisture is an important component of the water and energy balances of the Earth's surface. Furthermore, it has been identified as a parameter of significant potential for improving the accuracy of large-scale land surface-atmosphere interaction models. However, accurate estimates of surface soil moisture are often difficult to make, especially at large spatial scales. Soil moisture is a highly variable land surface parameter, and while point measurements are usually accurate, they are representative only of the immediate site which was sampled. Simple averaging of point values to obtain spatial means often leads to substantial errors. Since remotely sensed observations are already a spatially averaged or areally integrated value, they are ideally suited for measuring land surface parameters, and as such, are a logical input to regional or larger scale land process models. A nine-year database of surface soil moisture is being developed for the Central United States from satellite microwave observations. This region forms much of the GCIP study area, and contains most of the Mississippi, Rio Grande, and Red River drainages. Daytime and nighttime microwave brightness temperatures were observed at a frequency of 6.6 GHz, by the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR), onboard the Nimbus 7 satellite. The life of the SMMR instrument spanned from Nov. 1978 to Aug. 1987. At 6.6 GHz, the instrument provided a spatial resolution of approximately 150 km, and an orbital frequency over any pixel-sized area of about 2 daytime and 2 nighttime passes per week. Ground measurements of surface soil moisture from various locations throughout the study area are used to calibrate the microwave observations. Because ground measurements are usually only single point values, and since the time of satellite coverage does not always coincide with the ground measurements, the soil moisture data were used to calibrate a regional water balance for the top 1, 5, and 10 cm surface layers in order to interpolate daily surface moisture values. Such a climate-based approach is often more appropriate for estimating large-area spatially averaged soil moisture because meteorological data are generally more spatially representative than isolated point measurements of soil moisture. Vegetation radiative transfer characteristics, such as the canopy transmissivity, were estimated from vegetation indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the 37 GHz Microwave Polarization Difference Index (MPDI). Passive microwave remote sensing presents the greatest potential for providing regular spatially representative estimates of surface soil moisture at global scales. Real time estimates should improve weather and climate modelling efforts, while the development of historical data sets will provide necessary information for simulation and validation of long-term climate and global change studies.

Seasonal and temporal CO2 dynamics in three tropical mangrove creeks - A revision of global mangrove CO2 emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosentreter, Judith A.; Maher, D. T.; Erler, D. V.; Murray, R.; Eyre, B. D.

2018-02-01

Continuous high-resolution surface water pCO2 and δ13C-CO2 and 222Rn (dry season only) were measured over two tidal cycles in the wet and dry season in three tropical tidal mangrove creeks on the north-eastern coast of Queensland, Australia. Mangrove surface water pCO2 followed a clear tidal pattern (ranging from 387 to 13,031 μatm) with higher pCO2-values in the wet season than in the dry season. The δ13C-CO2 in the mangrove waters ranged from -21.7 to -8.8‰ and was rather indicative of a mixed source than a distinct mangrove signature. Surface water CO2 was likely driven by a combination of mangrove and external carbon sources, e.g. exchange with groundwater/pore water enriched in 13C, or terrestrial carbon inputs with a significant contribution of C4-vegetation (sugar cane) source. The kinetic and equilibrium fractionation during the gas exchange at the water-atmosphere interface may have further caused a 13C-enrichment of the CO2 pool in the mangrove surface waters. Average CO2 evasion rates (58.7-277.6 mmol m-2 d-1) were calculated using different empirical gas transfer velocity models. Using our high-resolution time series data and previously published data, the average CO2 flux rate in mangrove ecosystems was estimated to be 56.5 ± 8.9 mmol m-2 d-1, which corresponds to a revised global mangrove CO2 emission of 34.1 ± 5.4 Tg C per year.

The OceanFlux Greenhouse Gases methodology for deriving a sea surface climatology of CO2 fugacity in support of air-sea gas flux studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goddijn-Murphy, L. M.; Woolf, D. K.; Land, P. E.; Shutler, J. D.; Donlon, C.

2015-07-01

Climatologies, or long-term averages, of essential climate variables are useful for evaluating models and providing a baseline for studying anomalies. The Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) has made millions of global underway sea surface measurements of CO2 publicly available, all in a uniform format and presented as fugacity, fCO2. As fCO2 is highly sensitive to temperature, the measurements are only valid for the instantaneous sea surface temperature (SST) that is measured concurrently with the in-water CO2 measurement. To create a climatology of fCO2 data suitable for calculating air-sea CO2 fluxes, it is therefore desirable to calculate fCO2 valid for a more consistent and averaged SST. This paper presents the OceanFlux Greenhouse Gases methodology for creating such a climatology. We recomputed SOCAT's fCO2 values for their respective measurement month and year using monthly composite SST data on a 1° × 1° grid from satellite Earth observation and then extrapolated the resulting fCO2 values to reference year 2010. The data were then spatially interpolated onto a 1° × 1° grid of the global oceans to produce 12 monthly fCO2 distributions for 2010, including the prediction errors of fCO2 produced by the spatial interpolation technique. The partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is also provided for those who prefer to use pCO2. The CO2 concentration difference between ocean and atmosphere is the thermodynamic driving force of the air-sea CO2 flux, and hence the presented fCO2 distributions can be used in air-sea gas flux calculations together with climatologies of other climate variables.

Quantifying spatially and temporally explicit CO 2 fertilization effects on global terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Shaoqing; Zhuang, Qianlai; Chen, Min

Current terrestrial ecosystem models are usually driven with global average annual atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) concentration data at the global scale. However, high-precision CO 2 measurement from eddy flux towers showed that seasonal, spatial surface atmospheric CO 2 concentration differences were as large as 35 ppmv and the site-level tests indicated that the CO 2 variation exhibited different effects on plant photosynthesis. Here we used a process-based ecosystem model driven with two spatially and temporally explicit CO 2 data sets to analyze the atmospheric CO 2 fertilization effects on the global carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems from 2003 tomore » 2010. Our results demonstrated that CO 2 seasonal variation had a negative effect on plant carbon assimilation, while CO2 spatial variation exhibited a positive impact. When both CO 2 seasonal and spatial effects were considered, global gross primary production and net ecosystem production were 1.7 Pg C•yr –1 and 0.08 Pg C•yr –1 higher than the simulation using uniformly distributed CO 2 data set and the difference was significant in tropical and temperate evergreen broadleaf forest regions. Moreover, this study suggests that the CO 2 observation network should be expanded so that the realistic CO 2 variation can be incorporated into the land surface models to adequately account for CO 2 fertilization effects on global terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics.« less

Quantifying spatially and temporally explicit CO 2 fertilization effects on global terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics

DOE PAGES

Liu, Shaoqing; Zhuang, Qianlai; Chen, Min; ...

2016-07-25

Current terrestrial ecosystem models are usually driven with global average annual atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) concentration data at the global scale. However, high-precision CO 2 measurement from eddy flux towers showed that seasonal, spatial surface atmospheric CO 2 concentration differences were as large as 35 ppmv and the site-level tests indicated that the CO 2 variation exhibited different effects on plant photosynthesis. Here we used a process-based ecosystem model driven with two spatially and temporally explicit CO 2 data sets to analyze the atmospheric CO 2 fertilization effects on the global carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems from 2003 tomore » 2010. Our results demonstrated that CO 2 seasonal variation had a negative effect on plant carbon assimilation, while CO2 spatial variation exhibited a positive impact. When both CO 2 seasonal and spatial effects were considered, global gross primary production and net ecosystem production were 1.7 Pg C•yr –1 and 0.08 Pg C•yr –1 higher than the simulation using uniformly distributed CO 2 data set and the difference was significant in tropical and temperate evergreen broadleaf forest regions. Moreover, this study suggests that the CO 2 observation network should be expanded so that the realistic CO 2 variation can be incorporated into the land surface models to adequately account for CO 2 fertilization effects on global terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics.« less

Geologic Mapping of the Beta-Atla-Themis (BAT) Region of Venus: A Progress Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bleamaster, Leslie F., III

2009-01-01

The BAT province is of particular interest with respect to evaluating Venus geologic, tectonic, and volcanic history and provides tests of global paradigms regarding her thermal evolution. The BAT is "ringed" by volcano-tectonic troughs (Parga, Hecate, and Devana Chasmata), has an anomalously high-density of volcanic features with concentrations 2-4 times the global average [1], and is spatially coincident with "young terrain" as illustrated by Average Surface Model Ages [2, 3]. The BAT province is key to understanding Venus current volcanic and tectonic modes, which may provide insight for evaluating Venus historical record. Several quadrangles, two 1:5,000,000 scale - Isabella (V-50) Quadrangle and Devana Chasma (V-29) Quadrangle and two 1:10,000,000 scale - Helen Planitia (I-2477) and Guinevere Planitia (I-2457), are in various stages of production (Figure 1). This abstract will report on their levels of completion as well as highlight some current results and outstanding issues.

Carbon on Mercury's Surface - Origin, Distribution, and Concentration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klima, Rachel L.; Blewett, David T.; Denevi, Brett W.; Ernst, Carolyn M.; Murchie, Scott L.; Peplowski, Patrick N.; Perera, Virange; Vander Kaaden, Kathleen

2018-01-01

Distinctive low-reflectance material (LRM) was first observed on Mercury in Mariner 10 flyby images. Visible to near-infrared reflectance spectra of LRM are flatter than the average reflectance spectrum of Mercury, which is strongly red sloped (increasing in reflectance with wavelength). From Mariner 10 and early MErcury, Surface, Space, ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) flyby observations, it was suggested that a higher content of ilmenite, ulvospinel, carbon, or iron metal could cause both the characteristic dark, flat spectrum of LRM and the globally low reflectance of Mercury. Once MESSENGER entered orbit, low Fe and Ti abundances measured by the X-Ray and Gamma-Ray Spectrometers ruled out ilmenite, and ulvospinel as important surface constituents and implied that LRM was darkened by a different phase, such as carbon or small amounts of micro- or nanophase iron or iron sulfide dispersed in a silicate matrix. Low-altitude thermal neutron measurements of three LRM-rich regions confirmed an enhancement of 1-3 weight-percent carbon over the global abundance, supporting the hypothesis that LRM is darkened by carbon.

Retrieval of tropospheric aerosol properties over land from visible and near-infrared spectral reflectance: Application over Maryland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levy, Robert Carroll

Aerosols are major components of the Earth's global climate system, affecting the radiation budget and cloud processes of the atmosphere. When located near the surface, high concentrations lead to lowered visibility, increased health problems and generally reduced quality of life for the human population. Over the United States mid-Atlantic region, aerosol pollution is a problem mainly during the summer. Satellites, such as the MODerate Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS), from their vantage point above the atmosphere, provide unprecedented coverage of global and regional aerosols over land. During MODIS' eight-year operation, exhaustive data validation and analyses have shown how the algorithm should be improved. This dissertation describes the development of the 'second-generation' operational algorithm for retrieval of global tropospheric aerosol properties over dark land surfaces, from MODIS-observed spectral reflectance. New understanding about global aerosol properties, land surface reflectance characteristics, and radiative transfer properties were learned in the process. This new operational algorithm performs a simultaneous inversion of reflectance in two visible channels (0.47 and 0.66 mum) and one shortwave infrared channel (2.12 mum), thereby having increased sensitivity to coarse aerosol. Inversion of the three channels retrieves the aerosol optical depth (tau) at 0.55 mum, the percentage of non-dust (fine model) aerosol (eta) and the surface reflectance. This algorithm is applied globally, and retrieves tau that is highly correlated (y = 0.02 + 1.0x, R=0.9) with ground-based sunphotometer measurements. The new algorithm estimates the global, over-land, long-term averaged tau ˜ 0.21, a 25% reduction from previous MODIS estimates. This leads to reducing estimates of global, non-desert, over-land aerosol direct radiative effect (all aerosols) by 1.7 W·m-2 (0.5 W·m-2 over the entire globe), which significantly impacts assessment of aerosol direct radiative forcing (contribution from anthropogenic aerosols only). Over the U.S. mid-Atlantic region, validated retrievals of tau (an integrated column property) can help to estimate surface PM2.5 concentration, a monitored criteria air quality property. The 3-dimensional aerosol loading in the region is characterized using aircraft measurements and the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) model, leading to some convergence of observed quantities and modeled processes.

Decadal slowdown in global air temperature rise triggered by variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

England, Matthew H.

2015-04-01

Various explanations have been proposed for the recent slowdown in global surface air temperature (SAT) rise, either involving enhanced ocean heat uptake or reduced radiation reaching Earth's surface. Among the mechanisms postulated involving enhanced ocean heat uptake, past work has argued for both a Pacific and Atlantic origin, with additional contributions from the Southern Ocean. Here we examine the mechanisms driving 'hiatus' periods originating out of the Atlantic Ocean. We show that while Atlantic-driven hiatuses are entirely plausible and consistent with known climate feedbacks associated with variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the present climate state is configured to enhance global-average SAT, not reduce it. We show that Atlantic hiatuses are instead characterised by anomalously cool fresh oceanic conditions in the North Atlantic, with the atmosphere advecting the cool temperature signature zonally. Compared to the 1980s and 1990s, however, the mean climate since 2001 has been characterised by a warm saline North Atlantic, suggesting the AMOC cannot be implicated as a direct driver of the current hiatus. We further discuss the impacts of a warm tropical Atlantic on the unprecedented trade wind acceleration in the Pacific Ocean, and propose that this is the main way that the Atlantic has contributed to the present "false pause" in global warming.

Global Mapping of Underwater UV Irradiances and DNA-Weighted Exposures using TOMS and SeaWiFS Data Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vasilkov, Alexander; Krotkov, Nickolay; Herman, Jay; McClain, Charles; Arrigo, Kevin; Robinson, Wayne

1999-01-01

The global stratospheric ozone-layer depletion results In an increase in biologically harmful ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching the surface and penetrating to ecologically significant depths in natural waters. Such an increase can be estimated on a global scale by combining satellite estimates of UV irradiance at the ocean surface from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) satellite instrument with the SeaWIFS satellite ocean-color measurements in the visible spectral region. In this paper we propose a model of seawater optical properties in the UV spectral region based on the Case I water model in the visible range. The inputs to the model are standard monthly SeaWiFS products: chlorophyll concentration and the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 490nm. Penetration of solar UV radiation to different depths in open ocean waters is calculated using the RT (radiative transfer) quasi-single scattering approximation (QSSA). The accuracy of the QSSA approximation in the water is tested using more accurate codes. The sensitivity study of the underwater UV irradiance to atmospheric and oceanic optical properties have shown that the main environmental parameters controlling the absolute levels of the UVB (280-320nm) and DNA-weighted irradiance underwater are: solar-zenith angle, cloud transmittance, water optical properties, and total ozone. Weekly maps of underwater UV irradiance and DNA-weighted exposure are calculated using monthly-mean SeaWiFS chlorophyll and diffuse attenuation coefficient products, daily SeaWiFS cloud fraction data, and the TOMS-derived surface UV irradiance daily maps. The final products include global maps of weekly-average UVB irradiance and DNA-weighted daily exposures at 3m and 10m, and depths where the UVB irradiance and DNA-weighted dose rate at local noon are equal to 10% of their surface values.

Shifting relative importance of climatic constraints on land surface phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garonna, Irene; de Jong, Rogier; Stöckli, Reto; Schmid, Bernhard; Schenkel, David; Schimel, David; Schaepman, Michael E.

2018-02-01

Land surface phenology (LSP), the study of seasonal dynamics of vegetated land surfaces from remote sensing, is a key indicator of global change, that both responds to and influences weather and climate. The effects of climatic changes on LSP depend on the relative importance of climatic constraints in specific regions—which are not well understood at global scale. Understanding the climatic constraints that underlie LSP is crucial for explaining climate change effects on global vegetation phenology. We used a combination of modelled and remotely-sensed vegetation activity records to quantify the interplay of three climatic constraints on land surface phenology (namely minimum temperature, moisture availability, and photoperiod), as well as the dynamic nature of these constraints. Our study examined trends and the relative importance of the three constrains at the start and the end of the growing season over eight global environmental zones, for the past three decades. Our analysis revealed widespread shifts in the relative importance of climatic constraints in the temperate and boreal biomes during the 1982-2011 period. These changes in the relative importance of the three climatic constraints, which ranged up to 8% since 1982 levels, varied with latitude and between start and end of the growing season. We found a reduced influence of minimum temperature on start and end of season in all environmental zones considered, with a biome-dependent effect on moisture and photoperiod constraints. For the end of season, we report that the influence of moisture has on average increased for both the temperate and boreal biomes over 8.99 million km2. A shifting relative importance of climatic constraints on LSP has implications both for understanding changes and for improving how they may be modelled at large scales.

Carbon emission from global hydroelectric reservoirs revisited.

PubMed

Li, Siyue; Zhang, Quanfa

2014-12-01

Substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from hydropower reservoirs have been of great concerns recently, yet the significant carbon emitters of drawdown area and reservoir downstream (including spillways and turbines as well as river reaches below dams) have not been included in global carbon budget. Here, we revisit GHG emission from hydropower reservoirs by considering reservoir surface area, drawdown zone and reservoir downstream. Our estimates demonstrate around 301.3 Tg carbon dioxide (CO2)/year and 18.7 Tg methane (CH4)/year from global hydroelectric reservoirs, which are much higher than recent observations. The sum of drawdown and downstream emission, which is generally overlooked, represents 42 % CO2 and 67 % CH4 of the total emissions from hydropower reservoirs. Accordingly, the global average emissions from hydropower are estimated to be 92 g CO2/kWh and 5.7 g CH4/kWh. Nonetheless, global hydroelectricity could currently reduce approximate 2,351 Tg CO2eq/year with respect to fuel fossil plant alternative. The new findings show a substantial revision of carbon emission from the global hydropower reservoirs.

Multi-year global climatic effects of atmospheric dust from large bolide impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, Starley L.

1988-01-01

The global climatic effects of dust generated by the impact of a 10 km-diameter bolide was simulated using a one-dimensional (vertical only) globally-averaged climate model by Pollack et al. The goal of the simulation is to examine the regional climate effects, including the possibility of coastal refugia, generated by a global dust cloud in a model having realistic geographic resolution. The climate model assumes the instantaneous appearance of a global stratospheric dust cloud with initial optical depth of 10,000. The time history of optical depth decreases according to the detailed calculations of Pollack et al., reaching an optical depth of unity at day 160, and subsequently decreasing with an e-folding time of 1 year. The simulation is carried out for three years in order to examine the atmospheric effects and recovery over several seasons. The simulation does not include any effects of NOx, CO2, or wildfire smoke injections that may accompany the creation of the dust cloud. The global distribution of surface temperature changes, freezing events, precipitation and soil moisture effects and sea ice increases will be discussed.

Brown carbon aerosols from burning of boreal peatlands: microphysical properties, emission factors, and implications for direct radiative forcing

Treesearch

Rajan K. Chakrabarty; Madhu Gyawali; Reddy L. N. Yatavelli; Apoorva Pandey; Adam C. Watts; Joseph Knue; Lung-Wen A. Chen; Robert R. Pattison; Anna Tsibart; Vera Samburova; Hans Moosmuller

2016-01-01

The surface air warming over the Arctic has been almost twice as much as the global average in recent decades. In this region, unprecedented amounts of smoldering peat fires have been identified as a major emission source of climate-warming agents. While much is known about greenhouse gas emissions from these fires, there is a knowledge gap on the nature of particulate...

Global Land Surface Temperature From the Along-Track Scanning Radiometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghent, D. J.; Corlett, G. K.; Göttsche, F.-M.; Remedios, J. J.

2017-11-01

The Leicester Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) and Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR) Processor for LAnd Surface Temperature (LASPLAST) provides global land surface temperature (LST) products from thermal infrared radiance data. In this paper, the state-of-the-art version of LASPLAST, as deployed in the GlobTemperature project, is described and applied to data from the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR). The LASPLAST retrieval formulation for LST is a nadir-only, two-channel, split-window algorithm, based on biome classification, fractional vegetation, and across-track water vapor dependences. It incorporates globally robust retrieval coefficients derived using highly sampled atmosphere profiles. LASPLAST benefits from appropriate spatial resolution auxiliary information and a new probabilistic-based cloud flagging algorithm. For the first time for a satellite-derived LST product, pixel-level uncertainties characterized in terms of random, locally correlated, and systematic components are provided. The new GlobTemperature GT_ATS_2P Version 1.0 product has been validated for 1 year of AATSR data (2009) against in situ measurements acquired from "gold standard reference" stations: Gobabeb, Namibia, and Evora, Portugal; seven Surface Radiation Budget stations, and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement station at Southern Great Plains. These data show average absolute biases for the GT_ATS_2P Version 1.0 product of 1.00 K in the daytime and 1.08 K in the nighttime. The improvements in data provenance including better accuracy, fully traceable retrieval coefficients, quantified uncertainty, and more detailed information in the new harmonized format of the GT_ATS_2P product will allow for more significant exploitation of the historical LST data record from the ATSRs and a valuable near-real-time service from the Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometers (SLSTRs).

The Polar Regions and Martian Climate: Studies with a Global Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, R. J.; Richardson, M. I.; Smith, M. D.

2003-01-01

Much of the interest in the polar regions centers on the fact that they likely contain the best record of Martian climate change on time scales from years to eons. This expectation is based upon the observed occurrence of weathering product deposits and volatile reservoirs that are coupled to the climate. Interpretation and understanding of these records requires understanding of the mechanisms that involve the exchange of dust, water, and carbon dioxide between the surface and atmosphere, and the atmospheric redistribution of these species. We will summarize our use of the GFDL Mars general circulation model (MGCM), to exploration aspects of the interaction between the global climate and the polar regions. For example, our studies have shown that while the northern polar cap is the dominant seasonal source for water, it can act as a net annual source or sink for water, depending upon the cap temperatures and the bulk humidity of the atmosphere. This behavior regulates the annual and global average humidity of the atmosphere, as the cap acts as a sink if the atmosphere is too wet and a source if it is too dry. We will then focus our presentation on the ability of the MGCM to simulate the observed diurnal variations of surface temperature. We are particularly interested in assessing the influence of dust aerosol and water ice clouds on simulated surface temperature and the comparison with observations. Surface thermal inertia and albedo are critical boundary inputs for MGCM simulations. Thermal inertia is also of intrinsic interest as it may be related to properties of the surface such as particle size and surface character.

Multi-Decadal Global Cooling and Unprecedented Ozone Loss Following a Regional Nuclear Conflict

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, M. J.; Toon, O. B.; Lee-Taylor, J. M.; Robock, A.

2014-12-01

We present the first study of the global impacts of a regional nuclear war with an Earth system model including atmospheric chemistry, ocean dynamics, and interactive sea-ice and land models (Mills et al., 2014). A limited, regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan in which each side detonates 50 15-kt weapons could produce about 5 Tg of black carbon. This would self-loft to the stratosphere, where it would spread globally, producing a sudden drop in surface temperatures and intense heating of the stratosphere. Using the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM1(WACCM)), we calculate an e-folding time of 8.7 years for stratospheric black carbon, compared to 4-6.5 years for previous studies (figure panel a). Our calculations show that global ozone losses of 20-50% over populated areas, levels unprecedented in human history, would accompany the coldest average surface temperatures in the last 1000 years (figure panel c). We calculate summer enhancements in UV indices of 30-80% over Mid-Latitudes, suggesting widespread damage to human health, agriculture, and terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Killing frosts would reduce growing seasons by 10-40 days per year for 5 years. Surface temperatures would be reduced for more than 25 years, due to thermal inertia and albedo effects in the ocean and expanded sea ice. The combined cooling and enhanced UV would put significant pressures on global food supplies and could trigger a global nuclear famine. Knowledge of the impacts of 100 small nuclear weapons should motivate the elimination of the more than 17,000 nuclear weapons that exist today. Mills, M. J., O. B. Toon, J. Lee-Taylor, and A. Robock (2014), Multidecadal global cooling and unprecedented ozone loss following a regional nuclear conflict, Earth's Future, 2(4), 161-176, doi:10.1002/2013EF000205.

Multisource Estimation of Long-term Global Terrestrial Surface Radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, L.; Sheffield, J.

2017-12-01

Land surface net radiation is the essential energy source at the earth's surface. It determines the surface energy budget and its partitioning, drives the hydrological cycle by providing available energy, and offers heat, light, and energy for biological processes. Individual components in net radiation have changed historically due to natural and anthropogenic climate change and land use change. Decadal variations in radiation such as global dimming or brightening have important implications for hydrological and carbon cycles. In order to assess the trends and variability of net radiation and evapotranspiration, there is a need for accurate estimates of long-term terrestrial surface radiation. While large progress in measuring top of atmosphere energy budget has been made, huge discrepancies exist among ground observations, satellite retrievals, and reanalysis fields of surface radiation, due to the lack of observational networks, the difficulty in measuring from space, and the uncertainty in algorithm parameters. To overcome the weakness of single source datasets, we propose a multi-source merging approach to fully utilize and combine multiple datasets of radiation components separately, as they are complementary in space and time. First, we conduct diagnostic analysis of multiple satellite and reanalysis datasets based on in-situ measurements such as Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA), existing validation studies, and other information such as network density and consistency with other meteorological variables. Then, we calculate the optimal weighted average of multiple datasets by minimizing the variance of error between in-situ measurements and other observations. Finally, we quantify the uncertainties in the estimates of surface net radiation and employ physical constraints based on the surface energy balance to reduce these uncertainties. The final dataset is evaluated in terms of the long-term variability and its attribution to changes in individual components. The goal of this study is to provide a merged observational benchmark for large-scale diagnostic analyses, remote sensing and land surface modeling.

Impacts of stratospheric sulfate geoengineering on tropospheric ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Lili; Nowack, Peer J.; Tilmes, Simone; Robock, Alan

2017-10-01

A range of solar radiation management (SRM) techniques has been proposed to counter anthropogenic climate change. Here, we examine the potential effects of stratospheric sulfate aerosols and solar insolation reduction on tropospheric ozone and ozone at Earth's surface. Ozone is a key air pollutant, which can produce respiratory diseases and crop damage. Using a version of the Community Earth System Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research that includes comprehensive tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, we model both stratospheric sulfur injection and solar irradiance reduction schemes, with the aim of achieving equal levels of surface cooling relative to the Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 scenario. This allows us to compare the impacts of sulfate aerosols and solar dimming on atmospheric ozone concentrations. Despite nearly identical global mean surface temperatures for the two SRM approaches, solar insolation reduction increases global average surface ozone concentrations, while sulfate injection decreases it. A fundamental difference between the two geoengineering schemes is the importance of heterogeneous reactions in the photochemical ozone balance with larger stratospheric sulfate abundance, resulting in increased ozone depletion in mid- and high latitudes. This reduces the net transport of stratospheric ozone into the troposphere and thus is a key driver of the overall decrease in surface ozone. At the same time, the change in stratospheric ozone alters the tropospheric photochemical environment due to enhanced ultraviolet radiation. A shared factor among both SRM scenarios is decreased chemical ozone loss due to reduced tropospheric humidity. Under insolation reduction, this is the dominant factor giving rise to the global surface ozone increase. Regionally, both surface ozone increases and decreases are found for both scenarios; that is, SRM would affect regions of the world differently in terms of air pollution. In conclusion, surface ozone and tropospheric chemistry would likely be affected by SRM, but the overall effect is strongly dependent on the SRM scheme. Due to the health and economic impacts of surface ozone, all these impacts should be taken into account in evaluations of possible consequences of SRM.

Global observation-based diagnosis of soil moisture control on land surface flux partition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallego-Elvira, Belen; Taylor, Christopher M.; Harris, Phil P.; Ghent, Darren; Veal, Karen L.; Folwell, Sonja S.

2016-04-01

Soil moisture plays a central role in the partition of available energy at the land surface between sensible and latent heat flux to the atmosphere. As soils dry out, evapotranspiration becomes water-limited ("stressed"), and both land surface temperature (LST) and sensible heat flux rise as a result. This change in surface behaviour during dry spells directly affects critical processes in both the land and the atmosphere. Soil water deficits are often a precursor in heat waves, and they control where feedbacks on precipitation become significant. State-of-the-art global climate model (GCM) simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) disagree on where and how strongly the surface energy budget is limited by soil moisture. Evaluation of GCM simulations at global scale is still a major challenge owing to the scarcity and uncertainty of observational datasets of land surface fluxes and soil moisture at the appropriate scale. Earth observation offers the potential to test how well GCM land schemes simulate hydrological controls on surface fluxes. In particular, satellite observations of LST provide indirect information about the surface energy partition at 1km resolution globally. Here, we present a potentially powerful methodology to evaluate soil moisture stress on surface fluxes within GCMs. Our diagnostic, Relative Warming Rate (RWR), is a measure of how rapidly the land warms relative to the overlying atmosphere during dry spells lasting at least 10 days. Under clear skies, this is a proxy for the change in sensible heat flux as soil dries out. We derived RWR from MODIS Terra and Aqua LST observations, meteorological re-analyses and satellite rainfall datasets. Globally we found that on average, the land warmed up during dry spells for 97% of the observed surface between 60S and 60N. For 73% of the area, the land warmed faster than the atmosphere (positive RWR), indicating water stressed conditions and increases in sensible heat flux. Higher RWRs were observed for shorter vegetation and bare soil compared to tall, deep-rooted vegetation due to differences in both aerodynamic and hydrological properties. The variation of RWR with antecedent rainfall provides information on which evaporation regime a particular region lies in climatologically. Different drying stages for a given antecedent rainfall can thus be observed depending on land cover type. For instance, our results suggest that forests in a continental climate remain unstressed during a 10 day dry spell provided the previous month saw at least 95 mm of rain. Conversely, RWR values indicate that under similar conditions regions of grass/crop cover are water-stressed.

Dielectric and thermal modeling of Vesta's surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmer, E. M.; Heggy, E.; Capria, M. T.; Tosi, F.; Russell, C. T.

2013-09-01

We generate a dielectric model for the surface of Vesta from thermal observations by Dawn's Visible and Infrared (VIR) mapping spectrometer. After retrieving surface temperatures from VIR data, we model thermal inertia, and derive a theoretical temperature map of Vesta's surface at a given UTC. To calculate the real part of the dielectric constant (ɛ') and the loss tangent (tg δ) we use the dielectric properties of basaltic lunar regolith as a first-order analog, assuming surface density and composition consistent with fine basaltic lunar dust. First results indicate that for the majority of the surface, ɛ' ranges from 2.0 to 2.1 from the night to day side respectively, and tg δ ranges from 1.05E-2 to 1.40E-2. While these regions are consistent with a basaltic, desiccated ~55% porous surface, we also find anomalies in the thermal inertia that may correspond to a variation in local surface density relative to the global average, and a consequent variation in the local dielectric properties.

Impact of aerosol microphysics on cloud optical properties and implications to atmospheric oxidation capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, G.; Yu, F.

2016-12-01

GEOS-Chem, presently used by many research groups, is a state-of-the-art global 3-D model of atmospheric composition driven by assimilated meteorology from the Goddard Earth Observing System. Our comparisons of GEOS-5 cloud properties, used in photolysis rate calculation, with MODIS retrievals show that GEOS-5 underestimates cloud optical depth (COD) by a factor of more than 2 over most regions. Our further analysis indicates that the COD underestimation in the released GEOS-5 meteorology products is likely to be associated with the fact that the GEOS-5 doesn't take into account the impact of aerosol on cloud microphysics and optical properties. A new COD parameterization (called NewC thereafter), which re-calculates COD from GEOS-5 water content and GEOS-Chem simulated size-resolved particle properties, cloud condensation nuclei abundance, and cloud droplet number concentration, has been developed and incorporated into GEOS-Chem. The NewC increases the GEOS-5 derived annual mean CODs averaged between 60ºS and 60ºN from 2.0 to 4.3, in much better agreement with corresponding MODIS value of 4.3. The enhanced COD based on NewC scheme reduces global average boundary layer OH concentration by 9.8%. Zonal averaged OH is increased 3-7% above clouds due to backscattering and decreased 10-15% below clouds due to the attenuation of solar radiation. The global mean OH concentration simulated by GEOS-Chem driven by GEOS-5 COD and NewC COD are respectively12.9 × 105molec cm-3 and 12.2 × 105molec cm-3, with the latter closer to the ACCMIP multi-model estimation (11.7±1 105molec cm-3). Surface OH concentrations over major anthropogenic regions such as Eastern US, Europe, and East Asia decrease by up to -18.6%, -14.4%, and -19.9%, respectively. The relative change of surface OH concentration appears to be the largest over the Amazon rainforest, reaching up to -30%. After switching from old COD to NewC COD, GEOS-Chem simulated column HCHO and surface isoprene over Amazon region are enhanced 12% and 20%, respectively. At the Eastern United States, column HCHO and surface isoprene are enhanced 5% and 15%, respectively. Seasonal variation and regional characteristics of the impact of aerosol microphysics on cloud properties and implications to atmospheric oxidation capacity and tropospheric compositions will be discussed.

Global volcanic aerosol properties derived from emissions, 1990-2014, using CESM1(WACCM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, Michael J.; Schmidt, Anja; Easter, Richard; Solomon, Susan; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Ghan, Steven J.; Neely, Ryan R.; Marsh, Daniel R.; Conley, Andrew; Bardeen, Charles G.; Gettelman, Andrew

2016-03-01

Accurate representation of global stratospheric aerosols from volcanic and nonvolcanic sulfur emissions is key to understanding the cooling effects and ozone losses that may be linked to volcanic activity. Attribution of climate variability to volcanic activity is of particular interest in relation to the post-2000 slowing in the rate of global average temperature increases. We have compiled a database of volcanic SO2 emissions and plume altitudes for eruptions from 1990 to 2014 and developed a new prognostic capability for simulating stratospheric sulfate aerosols in the Community Earth System Model. We used these combined with other nonvolcanic emissions of sulfur sources to reconstruct global aerosol properties from 1990 to 2014. Our calculations show remarkable agreement with ground-based lidar observations of stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) and with in situ measurements of stratospheric aerosol surface area density (SAD). These properties are key parameters in calculating the radiative and chemical effects of stratospheric aerosols. Our SAOD calculations represent a clear improvement over available satellite-based analyses, which generally ignore aerosol extinction below 15 km, a region that can contain the vast majority of stratospheric aerosol extinction at middle and high latitudes. Our SAD calculations greatly improve on that provided for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative, which misses about 60% of the SAD measured in situ on average during both volcanically active and volcanically quiescent periods.

Global accuracy estimates of point and mean undulation differences obtained from gravity disturbances, gravity anomalies and potential coefficients

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jekeli, C.

1979-01-01

Through the method of truncation functions, the oceanic geoid undulation is divided into two constituents: an inner zone contribution expressed as an integral of surface gravity disturbances over a spherical cap; and an outer zone contribution derived from a finite set of potential harmonic coefficients. Global, average error estimates are formulated for undulation differences, thereby providing accuracies for a relative geoid. The error analysis focuses on the outer zone contribution for which the potential coefficient errors are modeled. The method of computing undulations based on gravity disturbance data for the inner zone is compared to the similar, conventional method which presupposes gravity anomaly data within this zone.

Estimating regional CO2 and CH4 fluxes using GOSAT XCO2 and XCH4 observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, A. C.; Palmer, P. I.; Feng, L.; Parker, R.; Boesch, H.; Cogan, A. J.

2012-12-01

We infer regional monthly surface flux estimates for CO2 and CH4, June 2009-December 2010, from proxy dry-air column-averaged mole fractions of CO2 and CH4 from the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) using an ensemble Kalman Filter combined with the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model. We compare these flux estimates with estimates inferred from in situ surface mole fraction measurements and from combining in situ and GOSAT measurements in order to quantify the added value of GOSAT data above the conventional surface measurement network. We find that the error reduction, a measure of how much the posterior fluxes are being informed by the assimilated data, at least doubles when GOSAT measurements are used versus the surface only inversions, with the exception of regions that are well covered by the surface network at the spatial and temporal resolution of our flux estimation calculation. We have incorporated a new online bias correction scheme to account for GOSAT biases. We report global and regional flux estimates inferred from GOSAT and/or in situ measurements. While the global posterior fluxes from GOSAT and in situ measurements agree, we find significant differences in the regional fluxes, particularly over the tropics. We evaluate the posterior fluxes by comparing them against independent surface mole fraction, column, and aircraft measurements using the GEOS-Chem model as an intermediary.

Multimodel Surface Temperature Responses to Removal of U.S. Sulfur Dioxide Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conley, A. J.; Westervelt, D. M.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Fiore, A. M.; Shindell, D.; Correa, G.; Faluvegi, G.; Horowitz, L. W.

2018-03-01

Three Earth System models are used to derive surface temperature responses to removal of U.S. anthropogenic SO2 emissions. Using multicentury perturbation runs with and without U.S. anthropogenic SO2 emissions, the local and remote surface temperature changes are estimated. In spite of a temperature drift in the control and large internal variability, 200 year simulations yield statistically significant regional surface temperature responses to the removal of U.S. SO2 emissions. Both local and remote surface temperature changes occur in all models, and the patterns of changes are similar between models for northern hemisphere land regions. We find a global average temperature sensitivity to U.S. SO2 emissions of 0.0055 K per Tg(SO2) per year with a range of (0.0036, 0.0078). We examine global and regional responses in SO4 burdens, aerosol optical depths (AODs), and effective radiative forcing (ERF). While changes in AOD and ERF are concentrated near the source region (United States), the temperature response is spread over the northern hemisphere with amplification of the temperature increase toward the Arctic. In all models, we find a significant response of dust concentrations, which affects the AOD but has no obvious effect on surface temperature. Temperature sensitivity to the ERF of U.S. SO2 emissions is found to differ from the models' sensitivity to radiative forcing of doubled CO2.

Potential sensitivity of photosynthesis and isoprene emission to direct radiative effects of atmospheric aerosol pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strada, Susanna; Unger, Nadine

2016-04-01

A global Earth system model is applied to quantify the impacts of direct anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing on gross primary productivity (GPP) and isoprene emission. The impacts of different pollution aerosol sources (anthropogenic, biomass burning, and non-biomass burning) are investigated by performing sensitivity experiments. The model framework includes all known light and meteorological responses of photosynthesis, but uses fixed canopy structures and phenology. On a global scale, our results show that global land carbon fluxes (GPP and isoprene emission) are not sensitive to pollution aerosols, even under a global decline in surface solar radiation (direct + diffuse) by ˜ 9 %. At a regional scale, GPP and isoprene emission show a robust but opposite sensitivity to pollution aerosols in regions where forested canopies dominate. In eastern North America and Eurasia, anthropogenic pollution aerosols (mainly from non-biomass burning sources) enhance GPP by +5-8 % on an annual average. In the northwestern Amazon Basin and central Africa, biomass burning aerosols increase GPP by +2-5 % on an annual average, with a peak in the northwestern Amazon Basin during the dry-fire season (+5-8 %). The prevailing mechanism varies across regions: light scattering dominates in eastern North America, while a reduction in direct radiation dominates in Europe and China. Aerosol-induced GPP productivity increases in the Amazon and central Africa include an additional positive feedback from reduced canopy temperatures in response to increases in canopy conductance. In Eurasia and northeastern China, anthropogenic pollution aerosols drive a decrease in isoprene emission of -2 to -12 % on an annual average. Future research needs to incorporate the indirect effects of aerosols and possible feedbacks from dynamic carbon allocation and phenology.

Sources of global warming in upper ocean temperature during El Niño

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Warren B.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Mike; Auad, Guillermo

2001-01-01

Global average sea surface temperature (SST) from 40°S to 60°N fluctuates ±0.3°C on interannual period scales, with global warming (cooling) during El Niño (La Niña). About 90% of the global warming during El Niño occurs in the tropical global ocean from 20°S to 20°N, half because of large SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific associated with El Niño and the other half because of warm SST anomalies occurring over ∼80% of the tropical global ocean. From examination of National Centers for Environmental Prediction [Kalnay et al., 1996] and Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set [Woodruff et al., 1993] reanalyses, tropical global warming during El Niño is associated with higher troposphere moisture content and cloud cover, with reduced trade wind intensity occurring during the onset phase of El Niño. During this onset phase the tropical global average diabatic heat storage tendency in the layer above the main pycnocline is 1–3 W m−2above normal. Its principal source is a reduction in the poleward Ekman heat flux out of the tropical ocean of 2–5 W m−2. Subsequently, peak tropical global warming during El Niño is dissipated by an increase in the flux of latent heat to the troposphere of 2–5 W m−2, with reduced shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes in response to increased cloud cover tending to cancel each other. In the extratropical global ocean the reduction in poleward Ekman heat flux out of the tropics during the onset of El Niño tends to be balanced by reduction in the flux of latent heat to the troposphere. Thus global warming and cooling during Earth's internal mode of interannual climate variability arise from fluctuations in the global hydrological balance, not the global radiation balance. Since it occurs in the absence of extraterrestrial and anthropogenic forcing, global warming on decadal, interdecadal, and centennial period scales may also occur in association with Earth's internal modes of climate variability on those scales.

Water World Artist Concept

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-04-12

This artist's concept shows a hypothetical planet covered in water around the binary star system of Kepler-35A and B. In a 2017 study in the journal Nature Communications, researchers investigating the climates of exoplanets determined that this hypothetical planet could be habitable, depending on its distance from the two stars. On the far edge of the habitable zone, the hypothetical water-covered planet would have a lot of variation in its surface temperatures. But closer to the stars, near the inner edge of the habitable zone, the global average surface temperatures on the same planet would stay almost constant. https://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA21470

Global land-surface primary productivity based upon Nimbus-7 37 GHz data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choudhury, B. J.

1988-01-01

Accumulation and renewal of organic matter as quantified through net primary productivity (NPP) is considered a very major function of the biosphere, and its estimation is crucial in understanding the carbon cycle. A physically-based model relating NPP to the difference of vertically and horizontally polarized brightness temperatures (Delta T) observed at 37 GHz frequency of the scanning multichannel microwave radiometer on board the Nimbus-7 satellite is used for fitting areally averaged values of NPP and Delta T for five biomes. The land-surface NPP within 80 deg N to 55 deg S is then calculated using the Delta T data and compared with other estimates.

How well do we understand the Earth's radiation budget and the role of clouds? Selected results of the GEWEX radiation flux assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raschke, E.; Kinne, S.

2013-05-01

Multi-year average radiative flux maps of three satellite data-sets (CERES, ISSCP and GEWEX-SRB) are compared to each other and to typical values by global modeling (median values of results of 20 climate models of the 4th IPCC Assessment). Diversity assessments address radiative flux products and at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and the surface, with particular attention to impacts by clouds. Involving both data from surface and TOA special attention is given to the vertical radiation flux divergence and on the infrared Greenhouse effect, which are rarely shown in literature.

Rapid recipe formulation for plasma etching of new materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chopra, Meghali; Zhang, Zizhuo; Ekerdt, John; Bonnecaze, Roger T.

2016-03-01

A fast and inexpensive scheme for etch rate prediction using flexible continuum models and Bayesian statistics is demonstrated. Bulk etch rates of MgO are predicted using a steady-state model with volume-averaged plasma parameters and classical Langmuir surface kinetics. Plasma particle and surface kinetics are modeled within a global plasma framework using single component Metropolis Hastings methods and limited data. The accuracy of these predictions is evaluated with synthetic and experimental etch rate data for magnesium oxide in an ICP-RIE system. This approach is compared and superior to factorial models generated from JMP, a software package frequently employed for recipe creation and optimization.

The impacts of intense moisture transport on the deep and marginal sea-ice zones of the Arctic during winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, Cian; Caballero, Rodrigo

2015-04-01

Over the past few decades observations have shown that the Arctic is warming at a much faster rate than the global average; a phenomenon know as polar amplification. This tendency for the high latitudes to warm at a disproportionate rate compared to the global average is also a robust feature of global climate model simulations and highlights the importance of climate research in this region. The most often cited mechanism explaining polar amplification is the ice-albedo feed-back; a mechanism by which the surface albedo decreases as sea ice retreats in response to a warming climate. This in turn leads to a higher absorption of insolation and the melting of more ice. In recent years the role of the ice-albedo feedback mechanism as the main cause of polar amplification has been brought into question. GCM studies show a slight reduction of the total poleward energy transport in a warming climate; with the dry static component decreasing at a much faster rate than the moist component. This repartitioning of the poleward energy transport has implications for the formation of clouds in the Arctic, which induce a secondary warming by trapping escaping OLR. These cloud processes in the atmosphere can explain at least part of the recent temperature amplification in the Arctic; and indeed even aquaplanet model studies with zero sea-ice reproduce the polar amplification phenomenon. Directionally, the ice-albedo feedback is a "bottom-up" process; inducing warming in the atmosphere from an increasing surface heat source i.e. more open ocean. The opening of more ocean surface is also consistent with the bottom amplified structure of warming in the Arctic. Here we present evidence for a mechanism in the atmosphere that matches with observations, but in fact acts the opposite direction i.e. "top-down", whereby moist air masses from lower latitudes, termed "moisture intrusions", travelling over the sea-ice increase the longwave down radiation and in turn induce a bottom amplified warming at the surface. There are an average of 14 such events that enter the polar cap each winter, driving about 50% of the seasonal variation in surface temperature over the deep Arctic. We show that, over the last 30 years, the marginal ice-zones in the Barents, Labrador and Chukchi Seas have experienced roughly a doubling in the frequency of these intense moisture intrusion events during winter. Interestingly, these are the regions that have experienced the most rapid wintertime ice loss in the Arctic, raising the question: to what extent has the recent Arctic warming been driven by local vs. interannual/remote processes?

Integration of coastal inundation modeling from storm tides to individual waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ning; Roeber, Volker; Yamazaki, Yoshiki; Heitmann, Troy W.; Bai, Yefei; Cheung, Kwok Fai

2014-11-01

Modeling of storm-induced coastal inundation has primarily focused on the surge generated by atmospheric pressure and surface winds with phase-averaged effects of the waves as setup. Through an interoperable model package, we investigate the role of phase-resolving wave processes in simulation of coastal flood hazards. A spectral ocean wave model describes generation and propagation of storm waves from deep to intermediate water, while a non-hydrostatic storm-tide model has the option to couple with a spectral coastal wave model for computation of phase-averaged processes in a near-shore region. The ocean wave and storm-tide models can alternatively provide the wave spectrum and the surface elevation as the boundary and initial conditions for a nested Boussinesq model. Additional surface-gradient terms in the Boussinesq equations maintain the quasi-steady, non-uniform storm tide for modeling of phase-resolving surf and swash-zone processes as well as combined tide, surge, and wave inundation. The two nesting schemes are demonstrated through a case study of Hurricane Iniki, which made landfall on the Hawaiian Island of Kauai in 1992. With input from a parametric hurricane model and global reanalysis and tidal datasets, the two approaches produce comparable significant wave heights and phase-averaged surface elevations in the surf zone. The nesting of the Boussinesq model provides a seamless approach to augment the inundation due to the individual waves in matching the recorded debris line along the coast.

Assessing the Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Change on Global Water Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batra, N.; Yang, Y. E.; Choi, H. I.; Islam, A.; Charlotte, D. F.; Cai, X.; Kumar, P.

2007-12-01

Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) significantly modify the hydrological regime of the watersheds, affecting water resources and environment from regional to global scale. This study seeks to advance and integrate water and energy cycle observation, scientific understanding, and human impacts to assess future water availability. To achieve the research objective, we integrate and interpret past and current space based and in situ observations into a global hydrologic model (GHM). GHM is developed with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution, physical complexity, hydrologic theory and processes to quantify the impact of LULCC on physical variables: surface runoff, subsurface flow, groundwater, infiltration, ET, soil moisture, etc. Coupled with the common land model (CLM), a 3-dimensional volume averaged soil-moisture transport (VAST) model is expanded to incorporate the lateral flow and subgrid heterogeneity. The model consists of 11 soil-hydrology layers to predict lateral as well as vertical moisture flux transport based on Richard's equations. The primary surface boundary conditions (SBCs) include surface elevation and its derivatives, land cover category, sand and clay fraction profiles, bedrock depth and fractional vegetation cover. A consistent global GIS-based dataset is constructed for the SBCs of the model from existing observational datasets comprising of various resolutions, map projections and data formats. Global ECMWF data at 6-hour time steps for the period 1971 through 2000 is processed to get the forcing data which includes incoming longwave and shortwave radiation, precipitation, air temperature, pressure, wind components, boundary layer height and specific humidity. Land use land cover data, generated using IPCC scenarios for every 10 years from 2000 to 2100 is used for future assessment on water resources. Alterations due to LULCC on surface water balance components: ET, groundwater recharge and runoff are then addressed in the study. Land use change disrupts the hydrological cycle through increasing the water yield at some places leading to floods while diminishing, or even eliminating the low flow at other places.

Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply.

PubMed

Jung, Martin; Reichstein, Markus; Ciais, Philippe; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Sheffield, Justin; Goulden, Michael L; Bonan, Gordon; Cescatti, Alessandro; Chen, Jiquan; de Jeu, Richard; Dolman, A Johannes; Eugster, Werner; Gerten, Dieter; Gianelle, Damiano; Gobron, Nadine; Heinke, Jens; Kimball, John; Law, Beverly E; Montagnani, Leonardo; Mu, Qiaozhen; Mueller, Brigitte; Oleson, Keith; Papale, Dario; Richardson, Andrew D; Roupsard, Olivier; Running, Steve; Tomelleri, Enrico; Viovy, Nicolas; Weber, Ulrich; Williams, Christopher; Wood, Eric; Zaehle, Sönke; Zhang, Ke

2010-10-21

More than half of the solar energy absorbed by land surfaces is currently used to evaporate water. Climate change is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle and to alter evapotranspiration, with implications for ecosystem services and feedback to regional and global climate. Evapotranspiration changes may already be under way, but direct observational constraints are lacking at the global scale. Until such evidence is available, changes in the water cycle on land−a key diagnostic criterion of the effects of climate change and variability−remain uncertain. Here we provide a data-driven estimate of global land evapotranspiration from 1982 to 2008, compiled using a global monitoring network, meteorological and remote-sensing observations, and a machine-learning algorithm. In addition, we have assessed evapotranspiration variations over the same time period using an ensemble of process-based land-surface models. Our results suggest that global annual evapotranspiration increased on average by 7.1 ± 1.0 millimetres per year per decade from 1982 to 1997. After that, coincident with the last major El Niño event in 1998, the global evapotranspiration increase seems to have ceased until 2008. This change was driven primarily by moisture limitation in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly Africa and Australia. In these regions, microwave satellite observations indicate that soil moisture decreased from 1998 to 2008. Hence, increasing soil-moisture limitations on evapotranspiration largely explain the recent decline of the global land-evapotranspiration trend. Whether the changing behaviour of evapotranspiration is representative of natural climate variability or reflects a more permanent reorganization of the land water cycle is a key question for earth system science.

Thermal inertia and surface heterogeneity on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putzig, Nathaniel E.

Thermal inertia derived from temperature observations is critical for understanding surface geology and assessing potential landing sites on Mars. Derivation methods generally assume uniform surface properties for any given observation. Consequently, horizontal heterogeneity and near-surface layering may yield apparent thermal inertia that varies with time of day and season. To evaluate the effects of horizontal heterogeneity, I modeled the thermal behavior of surfaces containing idealized material mixtures (dust, sand, duricrust, and rocks) and differing slope facets. These surfaces exhibit diurnal and seasonal variability in apparent thermal inertia of several 100 tiu, 1 even for components with moderately contrasting thermal properties. To isolate surface effects on the derived thermal inertia of Mars, I mapped inter- annual and seasonal changes in albedo and atmospheric dust opacity, accounting for their effects in a modified derivation algorithm. Global analysis of three Mars years of MGS-TES 2 data reveals diurnal and seasonal variations of ~200 tiu in the mid-latitudes and 600 tiu or greater in the polar regions. Correlation of TES results and modeled apparent thermal inertia of heterogeneous surfaces indicates pervasive surface heterogeneity on Mars. At TES resolution, the near-surface thermal response is broadly dominated by layering and is consistent with the presence of duricrusts over fines in the mid-latitudes and dry soils over ground ice in the polar regions. Horizontal surface mixtures also play a role and may dominate at higher resolution. In general, thermal inertia obtained from single observations or annually averaged maps may misrepresent surface properties. In lieu of a robust heterogeneous- surface derivation technique, repeat coverage can be used together with forward-modeling results to constrain the near-surface heterogeneity of Mars. 1 tiu == J m -2 K -1 s - 2 Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer

microclim: Global estimates of hourly microclimate based on long-term monthly climate averages

PubMed Central

Kearney, Michael R; Isaac, Andrew P; Porter, Warren P

2014-01-01

The mechanistic links between climate and the environmental sensitivities of organisms occur through the microclimatic conditions that organisms experience. Here we present a dataset of gridded hourly estimates of typical microclimatic conditions (air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, solar radiation, sky radiation and substrate temperatures from the surface to 1 m depth) at high resolution (~15 km) for the globe. The estimates are for the middle day of each month, based on long-term average macroclimates, and include six shade levels and three generic substrates (soil, rock and sand) per pixel. These data are suitable for deriving biophysical estimates of the heat, water and activity budgets of terrestrial organisms. PMID:25977764

Microclim: Global estimates of hourly microclimate based on long-term monthly climate averages.

PubMed

Kearney, Michael R; Isaac, Andrew P; Porter, Warren P

2014-01-01

The mechanistic links between climate and the environmental sensitivities of organisms occur through the microclimatic conditions that organisms experience. Here we present a dataset of gridded hourly estimates of typical microclimatic conditions (air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, solar radiation, sky radiation and substrate temperatures from the surface to 1 m depth) at high resolution (~15 km) for the globe. The estimates are for the middle day of each month, based on long-term average macroclimates, and include six shade levels and three generic substrates (soil, rock and sand) per pixel. These data are suitable for deriving biophysical estimates of the heat, water and activity budgets of terrestrial organisms.

How well can regional fluxes be derived from smaller-scale estimates?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, Kathleen E.; Fitzjarrald, David R.; Ritter, John A.

1992-01-01

Regional surface fluxes are essential lower boundary conditions for large scale numerical weather and climate models and are the elements of global budgets of important trace gases. Surface properties affecting the exchange of heat, moisture, momentum and trace gases vary with length scales from one meter to hundreds of km. A classical difficulty is that fluxes have been measured directly only at points or along lines. The process of scaling up observations limited in space and/or time to represent larger areas was done by assigning properties to surface classes and combining estimated or calculated fluxes using an area weighted average. It is not clear that a simple area weighted average is sufficient to produce the large scale from the small scale, chiefly due to the effect of internal boundary layers, nor is it known how important the uncertainty is to large scale model outcomes. Simultaneous aircraft and tower data obtained in the relatively simple terrain of the western Alaska tundra were used to determine the extent to which surface type variation can be related to fluxes of heat, moisture, and other properties. Surface type was classified as lake or land with aircraft borne infrared thermometer, and flight level heat and moisture fluxes were related to surface type. The magnitude and variety of sampling errors inherent in eddy correlation flux estimation place limits on how well any flux can be known even in simple geometries.

Understanding Arctic surface temperature differences in reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cullather, R. I.; Zhao, B.; Shuman, C. A.; Nowicki, S.

2017-12-01

Reanalyses in the Arctic are widely used for model evaluation and for understanding contemporary climate change. Nevertheless, differences among reanalyses in fundamental meteorological variables including surface air temperature are large. For example, the 1980-2009 mean surface air temperature for the north polar cap (70°N-90°N) among global reanalyses span a range of 2.4 K, which approximates the average warming trend from these reanalyses over the 30-year period of 2.1 K. Understanding these differences requires evaluation over the three principal surface domains of the Arctic: glaciated land, the unglaciated terrestrial surface, and sea ice/ocean. An examination is conducted of contemporary global reanalyses of the ECMWF Interim project, NASA MERRA, MERRA-2, JRA-55, and NOAA CFSR using available in situ data and assessments of the surface energy budget. Overly-simplistic representations of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface are found to be associated with local warm air temperature biases in winter. A review of progress made in the development of the MERRA-2 land-ice representation is presented. Large uncertainty is also found in temperatures over the Arctic tundra and boreal forest zone. But a key focus of temperature differences for northern high latitudes is the Arctic Ocean. Near-surface air temperature differences over the Arctic Ocean are found to be related to discrepancies in sea ice and sea surface temperature boundary data, which are severely compromised in current reanalyses. Issues with the modeled representation of sea ice cover are an additional factor in reanalysis temperature trends. Differences in the representation of the surface energy budget among the various reanalyses are also reviewed.

Understanding Arctic Surface Temperature Differences in Reanalyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cullather, Richard; Zhao, Bin; Shuman, Christopher; Nowicki, Sophie

2017-01-01

Reanalyses in the Arctic are widely used for model evaluation and for understanding contemporary climate change. Nevertheless, differences among reanalyses in fundamental meteorological variables including surface air temperature are large. For example, the 1980-2009 mean surface air temperature for the north polar cap (70ÂdegN-90ÂdegN) among global reanalyses span a range of 2.4 K, which approximates the average warming trend from these reanalyses over the 30-year period of 2.1 K. Understanding these differences requires evaluation over the three principal surface domains of the Arctic: glaciated land, the unglaciated terrestrial surface, and sea ice/ocean. An examination is conducted of contemporary global reanalyses of the ECMWF Interim project, NASA MERRA, MERRA-2, JRA-55, and NOAA CFSR using available in situ data and assessments of the surface energy budget. Overly-simplistic representations of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface are found to be associated with local warm air temperature biases in winter. A review of progress made in the development of the MERRA-2 land-ice representation is presented. Large uncertainty is also found in temperatures over the Arctic tundra and boreal forest zone. But a key focus of temperature differences for northern high latitudes is the Arctic Ocean. Near-surface air temperature differences over the Arctic Ocean are found to be related to discrepancies in sea ice and sea surface temperature boundary data, which are severely compromised in current reanalyses. Issues with the modeled representation of sea ice cover are an additional factor in reanalysis temperature trends. Differences in the representation of the surface energy budget among the various reanalyses are also reviewed.

ISCCP Cloud Properties Associated with Standard Cloud Types Identified in Individual Surface Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hahn, Carole J.; Rossow, William B.; Warren, Stephen G.

1999-01-01

Individual surface weather observations from land stations and ships are compared with individual cloud retrievals of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), Stage C1, for an 8-year period (1983-1991) to relate cloud optical thicknesses and cloud-top pressures obtained from satellite data to the standard cloud types reported in visual observations from the surface. Each surface report is matched to the corresponding ISCCP-C1 report for the time of observation for the 280x280-km grid-box containing that observation. Classes of the surface reports are identified in which a particular cloud type was reported present, either alone or in combination with other clouds. For each class, cloud amounts from both surface and C1 data, base heights from surface data, and the frequency-distributions of cloud-top pressure (p(sub c) and optical thickness (tau) from C1 data are averaged over 15-degree latitude zones, for land and ocean separately, for 3-month seasons. The frequency distribution of p(sub c) and tau is plotted for each of the surface-defined cloud types occurring both alone and with other clouds. The average cloud-top pressures within a grid-box do not always correspond well with values expected for a reported cloud type, particularly for the higher clouds Ci, Ac, and Cb. In many cases this is because the satellites also detect clouds within the grid-box that are outside the field of view of the surface observer. The highest average cloud tops are found for the most extensive cloud type, Ns, averaging 7 km globally and reaching 9 km in the ITCZ. Ns also has the greatest average retrieved optical thickness, tau approximately equal 20. Cumulonimbus clouds may actually attain far greater heights and depths, but do not fill the grid-box. The tau-p(sub c) distributions show features that distinguish the high, middle, and low clouds reported by the surface observers. However, the distribution patterns for the individual low cloud types (Cu, Sc, St) occurring alone overlap to such an extent that it is not possible to distinguish these cloud types from each other on the basis of tau-p(sub c) values alone. Other cloud types whose tau-p(sub c) distributions are indistinguishable are Cb, Ns, and thick As. However, the tau-p(sub c) distribution patterns for the different low cloud types are nevertheless distinguishable when all occurrences of a low cloud type are included, indicating that the different low types differ in their probabilities of co-occurrence with middle and high clouds.

Evaluating Surface Flux Results from CERES-FLASHFlux

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilber, A. C.; Stackhouse, P. W., Jr.; Kratz, D. P.; Gupta, S. K.; Sawaengphokhai, P.

2016-12-01

The Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) mission provides TOA (Top-of-Atmosphere) and surface radiative flux products for each CERES footprint (Single Scanner Footprint) and also time integrated and spatially averaged (TISA) to provide 1ox1o fluxes at various temporal averages. The CERES TISA products are available to the public within 3-6 months of observation. The CERES Fast Longwave and SHortwave radiative Flux (FLASHFlux) data products were developed to provide a rapid release version of the CERES data products. FLASHFlux data products are made available to the research and applications communities within one week of the satellite observations. Over the last several years, the CERES team has contributed to a section on the variability of radiation budget at the Top-of-Atmosphere in the annual "State of the Climate Report" published in BAMS using CERES TISA and FLASHFlux data products. Recently, the FLASHFlux data were used to investigate the radiative impacts of the intense 2015-2016 El Nino event. In addition FLASHFlux date are routinely used by applied science in energy related and agricultural sectors. The current version of FLASHFlux is being upgraded to FLASHFlux Version4A to improve consistency with the climate quality Edition 4 CERES data products. This presentation will describe the planned changes including the change to the latest meteorological product from Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), GEOS FP-IT (5.12.4). GEOS 5.12.4 is an assimilation that is consistent with MERRA-2. We present comparisons of global and regional changes in the TOA and surface radiative fluxes as a result of the upgrade for both longwave (LW) and shortwave (SW) surface fluxes. We also compare the data products against ground measurements using data from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) - including NOAA SURFRAD, Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) and Ocean buoy measurements from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute (WHOI).

Deriving Global Discharge Records from SWOT Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, M.; Fisher, C. K.; Wood, E. F.

2017-12-01

River flows are poorly monitored in many regions of the world, hindering our ability to accurately estimate water global water usage, and thus estimate global water and energy budgets or the variability in the global water cycle. Recent developments in satellite remote sensing, such as water surface elevations from radar altimetry or surface water extents from visible/infrared imagery, aim to fill this void; however, the streamflow estimates derived from these are inherently intermittent in both space and time. There is then a need for new methods that are able to derive spatially and temporally continuous records of discharge from the many available data sources. One particular application of this will be the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, which is designed to provide global observations of water surface elevation and slope from which river discharge can be estimated. Within the 21-day repeat cycle, a river reach will be observed 2-4 times on average. Due to the relationship between the basin orientation and the orbit, these observations are not evenly distributed in time or space. In this study, we investigate how SWOT will observe global river basins and how the temporal and spatial sampling impacts our ability to reconstruct discharge records.River flows can be estimated throughout a basin by assimilating SWOT observations using the Inverse Streamflow Routing (ISR) model of Pan and Wood [2013]. This method is applied to 32 global basins with different geometries and crossing patterns for the future orbit, assimilating theoretical SWOT-retrieved "gauges". Results show that the model is able to reconstruct basin-wide discharge from SWOT observations alone; however, the performance varies significantly across basins and is driven by the orientation, flow distance, and travel time in each, as well as the sensitivity of the reconstruction method to errors in the satellite retrieval. These properties are combined to estimate the "observability" of each basin. We then apply this metric globally and relate it to the discharge reconstruction performance to gain a better understanding of the impact that spatially and temporally sparse observations, such as those from SWOT, may have in basins with limited in-situ observations. Pan, M; Wood, E F 2013 Inverse streamflow routing, HESS 17(11):4577-4588

Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jianbin; Zhang, Xiangdong; Zhang, Qiyi; Lin, Yanluan; Hao, Mingju; Luo, Yong; Zhao, Zongci; Yao, Yao; Chen, Xin; Wang, Lei; Nie, Suping; Yin, Yizhou; Xu, Ying; Zhang, Jiansong

2017-12-01

The existence and magnitude of the recently suggested global warming hiatus, or slowdown, have been strongly debated1-3. Although various physical processes4-8 have been examined to elucidate this phenomenon, the accuracy and completeness of observational data that comprise global average surface air temperature (SAT) datasets is a concern9,10. In particular, these datasets lack either complete geographic coverage or in situ observations over the Arctic, owing to the sparse observational network in this area9. As a consequence, the contribution of Arctic warming to global SAT changes may have been underestimated, leading to an uncertainty in the hiatus debate. Here, we constructed a new Arctic SAT dataset using the most recently updated global SATs2 and a drifting buoys based Arctic SAT dataset11 through employing the `data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions' method12. Our estimate of global SAT rate of increase is around 0.112 °C per decade, instead of 0.05 °C per decade from IPCC AR51, for 1998-2012. Analysis of this dataset shows that the amplified Arctic warming over the past decade has significantly contributed to a continual global warming trend, rather than a hiatus or slowdown.

Minimizing the Standard Deviation of Spatially Averaged Surface Cross-Sectional Data from the Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meneghini, Robert; Kim, Hyokyung

2016-01-01

For an airborne or spaceborne radar, the precipitation-induced path attenuation can be estimated from the measurements of the normalized surface cross section, sigma 0, in the presence and absence of precipitation. In one implementation, the mean rain-free estimate and its variability are found from a lookup table (LUT) derived from previously measured data. For the dual-frequency precipitation radar aboard the global precipitation measurement satellite, the nominal table consists of the statistics of the rain-free 0 over a 0.5 deg x 0.5 deg latitude-longitude grid using a three-month set of input data. However, a problem with the LUT is an insufficient number of samples in many cells. An alternative table is constructed by a stepwise procedure that begins with the statistics over a 0.25 deg x 0.25 deg grid. If the number of samples at a cell is too few, the area is expanded, cell by cell, choosing at each step that cell that minimizes the variance of the data. The question arises, however, as to whether the selected region corresponds to the smallest variance. To address this question, a second type of variable-averaging grid is constructed using all possible spatial configurations and computing the variance of the data within each region. Comparisons of the standard deviations for the fixed and variable-averaged grids are given as a function of incidence angle and surface type using a three-month set of data. The advantage of variable spatial averaging is that the average standard deviation can be reduced relative to the fixed grid while satisfying the minimum sample requirement.

From the chlorophyll a in the surface layer to its vertical profile: a Greenland Sea relationship for satellite applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cherkasheva, A.; Nöthig, E.-M.; Bauerfeind, E.; Melsheimer, C.; Bracher, A.

2013-04-01

Current estimates of global marine primary production range over a factor of two. Improving these estimates requires an accurate knowledge of the chlorophyll vertical profiles, since they are the basis for most primary production models. At high latitudes, the uncertainty in primary production estimates is larger than globally, because here phytoplankton absorption shows specific characteristics due to the low-light adaptation, and in situ data and ocean colour observations are scarce. To date, studies describing the typical chlorophyll profile based on the chlorophyll in the surface layer have not included the Arctic region, or, if it was included, the dependence of the profile shape on surface concentration was neglected. The goal of our study was to derive and describe the typical Greenland Sea chlorophyll profiles, categorized according to the chlorophyll concentration in the surface layer and further monthly resolved profiles. The Greenland Sea was chosen because it is known to be one of the most productive regions of the Arctic and is among the regions in the Arctic where most chlorophyll field data are available. Our database contained 1199 chlorophyll profiles from R/Vs Polarstern and Maria S. Merian cruises combined with data from the ARCSS-PP database (Arctic primary production in situ database) for the years 1957-2010. The profiles were categorized according to their mean concentration in the surface layer, and then monthly median profiles within each category were calculated. The category with the surface layer chlorophyll (CHL) exceeding 0.7 mg C m-3 showed values gradually decreasing from April to August. A similar seasonal pattern was observed when monthly profiles were averaged over all the surface CHL concentrations. The maxima of all chlorophyll profiles moved from the greater depths to the surface from spring to late summer respectively. The profiles with the smallest surface values always showed a subsurface chlorophyll maximum with its median magnitude reaching up to three times the surface concentration. While the variability of the Greenland Sea season in April, May and June followed the global non-monthly resolved relationship of the chlorophyll profile to surface chlorophyll concentrations described by the model of Morel and Berthon (1989), it deviated significantly from the model in the other months (July-September), when the maxima of the chlorophyll are at quite different depths. The Greenland Sea dimensionless monthly median profiles intersected roughly at one common depth within each category. By applying a Gaussian fit with 0.1 mg C m-3 surface chlorophyll steps to the median monthly resolved chlorophyll profiles of the defined categories, mathematical approximations were determined. They generally reproduce the magnitude and position of the CHL maximum, resulting in an average 4% underestimation in Ctot (and 2% in rough primary production estimates) when compared to in situ estimates. These mathematical approximations can be used as the input to the satellite-based primary production models that estimate primary production in the Arctic regions.

Photometric properties of Triton hazes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hillier, J.; Veverka, J.

1994-01-01

Voyager imaging observations of Triton have been used to investigate the characteristics of the atmospheric hazes on Triton at three wavelengths: violet (0.41 micrometers), blue (0.48 micrometers), and green (0.56 micrometers). The globally averaged optical depth is wavelength dependent, varying from 0.034 in green to 0.063 in violet. These photometric results are dominated by the properties of localized discrete clouds rather than by those of the thinner, more widespread haze known to occur on Triton. The cloud particles are bright, with single-scattering albedos near unity at all three wavelengths, suggestive of a transparent icy condensate. The asymmetry parameter (+0.6) and the wavelength dependence of the optical depth both indicate cloud particles 0.2-0.4 micrometers in radius. The clouds are concentrated at 50-60 deg S latitude, where opacities up to three times the global average are observed. This is the same latitude region where most of the evidence for current surface activity is found, suggesting that the clouds may be related to the plumes or at least to some process connected with the sublimation of the south polar cap. The effects of possible temporal variations in the haze opacity are examined. Increases in the haze opacity tend to redden Triton. However, the degree of reddening is not sufficient to explain the full range of observed changed in Triton over the past decade; variations in the surface properties appear to be necessary.

Water circulation and global mantle dynamics: Insight from numerical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakagawa, Takashi; Nakakuki, Tomoeki; Iwamori, Hikaru

2015-05-01

We investigate water circulation and its dynamical effects on global-scale mantle dynamics in numerical thermochemical mantle convection simulations. Both dehydration-hydration processes and dehydration melting are included. We also assume the rheological properties of hydrous minerals and density reduction caused by hydrous minerals. Heat transfer due to mantle convection seems to be enhanced more effectively than water cycling in the mantle convection system when reasonable water dependence of viscosity is assumed, due to effective slab dehydration at shallow depths. Water still affects significantly the global dynamics by weakening the near-surface oceanic crust and lithosphere, enhancing the activity of surface plate motion compared to dry mantle case. As a result, including hydrous minerals, the more viscous mantle is expected with several orders of magnitude compared to the dry mantle. The average water content in the whole mantle is regulated by the dehydration-hydration process. The large-scale thermochemical anomalies, as is observed in the deep mantle, is found when a large density contrast between basaltic material and ambient mantle is assumed (4-5%), comparable to mineral physics measurements. Through this study, the effects of hydrous minerals in mantle dynamics are very important for interpreting the observational constraints on mantle convection.

Sensitivity of a global climate model to the critical Richardson number in the boundary layer parameterization

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Ning; Liu, Yangang; Gao, Zhiqiu; ...

2015-04-27

The critical bulk Richardson number (Ri cr) is an important parameter in planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes used in many climate models. This paper examines the sensitivity of a Global Climate Model, the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model, BCC_AGCM to Ri cr. The results show that the simulated global average of PBL height increases nearly linearly with Ri cr, with a change of about 114 m for a change of 0.5 in Ri cr. The surface sensible (latent) heat flux decreases (increases) as Ri cr increases. The influence of Ri cr on surface air temperature and specificmore » humidity is not significant. The increasing Ri cr may affect the location of the Westerly Belt in the Southern Hemisphere. Further diagnosis reveals that changes in Ri cr affect stratiform and convective precipitations differently. Increasing Ri cr leads to an increase in the stratiform precipitation but a decrease in the convective precipitation. Significant changes of convective precipitation occur over the inter-tropical convergence zone, while changes of stratiform precipitation mostly appear over arid land such as North Africa and Middle East.« less

Projections of Rapidly Rising Temperatures over Africa Under Low Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Engelbrecht, Francois; Adegoke, Jimmy; Bopape, Mary-Jane; Naidoo, Mogesh; Garland, Rebecca; Thatcher, Marcus; McGregor, John; Katzfe, Jack; Werner, Micha; Ichoku, Charles;

An investigation of the Archean climate using the NCAR CCm

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jenkins, G.S.

1991-01-01

The Archean (2.5 to 3.8 billion years ago) is of interest climatically, because of the 'Faint-Young Sun Paradox', which can be characterized by the Sun's reduced energy output. This lower energy output leads to a frozen planet if the climate existed as it does today. But, the geologic record shows that water was flowing at the earth's surface 3.8 billion years ago. Energy Balance Models (EBMs) and one-dimensional radiative-convective (1DRC) models predict a frozen planet for this time period, unless large carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations exist in the Archean atmosphere. The goal is to explore the Archean climate with themore » National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Community Climate Model (CCM). The search for negative feedbacks to explain the 'Faint-Young Sun Paradox' is the thrust of this study. This study undertakes a series of sensitivity simulations which first explores individual factors that may be important for the Archean. They include rotation rate, lower solar luminosity, and land fraction. Then, these climatic factors along with higher CO2 concentrations are combined into a set of experiments. A faster rotation rate may have existed in the Archean. The faster rotation rate simulations show warmer globally averaged surface temperatures that are caused by a 20 percent decrease in the total cloud fraction. The smaller cloud fraction is brought about by dynamical changes. A global ocean is a possibility for the Archean. A global ocean simulation predicts 4 K increase in global mean surface temperatures compared to the present-day climate control.« less

Response of the global climate to changes in atmospheric chemical composition due to fossil fuel burning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cess, R. D.; Hameed, S.; Hogan, J. S.

1980-01-01

Tropospheric ozone and methane might increase in the future as the result of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO, NOx and CH4 due to fossil fuel burning. Since O3 and CH4 are both greenhouse gases, increases in their concentrations could augment global warming due to larger future amounts of atmospheric CO2. To test this possible climatic impact, a zonal energy-balance climate model has been combined with a vertically-averaged tropospheric chemical model. The latter model includes all relevant chemical reactions which affect species derived from H2O, O2, CH4 and NOx. The climate model correspondingly incorporates changes in the infrared heating of the surface-troposphere system resulting from chemically induced changes in tropospheric ozone and methane. This coupled climate-chemical model indicates that global climate is sensitive to changes in emissions of CO, NOx and CH4, and that future increases in these emissions could enhance global warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2.

Dynamical amplification of Arctic and global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, Genrikh; Ivanov, Nikolai; Kharlanenkova, Natalia; Kuzmina, Svetlana; Bobylev, Leonid; Gnatiuk, Natalia; Urazgildeeva, Aleksandra

2015-04-01

The Arctic is coupled with global climate system by the atmosphere and ocean circulation that provides a major contribution to the Arctic energy budget. Therefore increase of meridional heat transport under global warming can impact on its Arctic amplification. Contribution of heat transport to the recent warming in the Arctic, Northern Hemisphere and the globe are estimated on base of reanalysis data, global climate model data and proposed special index. It is shown that significant part of linear trend during last four decades in average surface air temperature in these areas can be attributed to dynamical amplification. This attribution keeps until 400 mb height with progressive decreasing. The Arctic warming is amplified also due to an increase of humidity and cloudiness in the Arctic atmosphere that follow meridional transport gain. From October to January the Arctic warming trends are amplified as a result of ice edge retreat from the Siberian and Alaska coast and the heating of expanded volume of sea water. This investigation is supported with RFBR project 15-05-03512.

The tectonics of Titan: Global structural mapping from Cassini RADAR

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liu, Zac Yung-Chun; Radebaugh, Jani; Harris, Ron A.; Christiansen, Eric H.; Neish, Catherine D.; Kirk, Randolph L.; Lorenz, Ralph D.; ,

2016-01-01

The Cassini RADAR mapper has imaged elevated mountain ridge belts on Titan with a linear-to-arcuate morphology indicative of a tectonic origin. Systematic geomorphologic mapping of the ridges in Synthetic Aperture RADAR (SAR) images reveals that the orientation of ridges is globally E–W and the ridges are more common near the equator than the poles. Comparison with a global topographic map reveals the equatorial ridges are found to lie preferentially at higher-than-average elevations. We conclude the most reasonable formation scenario for Titan’s ridges is that contractional tectonism built the ridges and thickened the icy lithosphere near the equator, causing regional uplift. The combination of global and regional tectonic events, likely contractional in nature, followed by erosion, aeolian activity, and enhanced sedimentation at mid-to-high latitudes, would have led to regional infilling and perhaps covering of some mountain features, thus shaping Titan’s tectonic landforms and surface morphology into what we see today.

Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Teng, Haiyan

The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. Here, a proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Nino/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Nino3.4 SSTs thatmore » have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015-2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013-2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase.« less

Climate warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2 - Simulations with a multilayer coupled atmosphere-ocean seasonal energy balance model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Peng; Chou, Ming-Dah; Arking, Albert

1987-01-01

The transient response of the climate to increasing CO2 is studied using a modified version of the multilayer energy balance model of Peng et al. (1982). The main characteristics of the model are described. Latitudinal and seasonal distributions of planetary albedo, latitude-time distributions of zonal mean temperatures, and latitudinal distributions of evaporation, water vapor transport, and snow cover generated from the model and derived from actual observations are analyzed and compared. It is observed that in response to an atmospheric doubling of CO2, the model reaches within 1/e of the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature in 9-35 years for the probable range of vertical heat diffusivity in the ocean. For CO2 increases projected by the National Research Council (1983), the model's transient response in annually and globally averaged surface temperatures is 60-75 percent of the corresponding equilibrium response, and the disequilibrium increases with increasing heat diffusivity of the ocean.

Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

DOE PAGES

Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Teng, Haiyan

2016-06-02

The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. Here, a proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Nino/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Nino3.4 SSTs thatmore » have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015-2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013-2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase.« less

A remarkable climate warming hiatus over Northeast China since 1998

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xiubao; Ren, Guoyu; Ren, Yuyu; Fang, Yihe; Liu, Yulian; Xue, Xiaoying; Zhang, Panfeng

2017-07-01

Characteristics and causes of global warming hiatus (GWH) phenomenon have received much attention in recent years. Monthly mean data of land surface air maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), and mean temperature (Tmean) of 118 national stations since 1951 in Northeast China are used in this paper to analyze the changes of land surface air temperature in recent 64 years with an emphasis on the GWH period. The results show that (1) from 1951 to 2014, the warming trends of Tmax, Tmin, and Tmean are 0.20, 0.42, and 0.34 °C/decade respectively for the whole area, with the warming rate of Tmin about two times of Tmax, and the upward trend of Tmean obviously higher than mainland China and global averages; (2) in the period 1998-2014, the annual mean temperature consistently exhibits a cooling phenomenon in Northeast China, and the trends of Tmax, Tmin, and Tmean are -0.36, -0.14, and -0.28 °C/decade respectively; (3) in the GWH period, seasonal mean cooling mainly occurs in northern winter (DJF) and spring (MAM), but northern summer (JJA) and autumn (SON) still experience a warming, implying that the annual mean temperature decrease is controlled by the remarkable cooling of winter and spring; (4) compared to the global and mainland China averages, the hiatus phenomenon is more evident in Northeast China, and the cooling trends are more obvious in the cold season; (5) the Northeast China cooling trend occurs under the circulation background of the negative phase Arctic Oscillation (AO), and it is also closely related to strengthening of the Siberia High (SH) and the East Asian Trough (EAT), and the stronger East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) over the GWH period.

Multidecadal climate variability of global lands and oceans

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Palecki, M.A.

2006-01-01

Principal components analysis (PCA) and singular value decomposition (SVD) are used to identify the primary modes of decadal and multidecadal variability in annual global Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) values and sea-surface temperature (SSTs). The PDSI and SST data for 1925-2003 were detrended and smoothed (with a 10-year moving average) to isolate the decadal and multidecadal variability. The first two principal components (PCs) of the PDSI PCA explained almost 38% of the decadal and multidecadal variance in the detrended and smoothed global annual PDSI data. The first two PCs of detrended and smoothed global annual SSTs explained nearly 56% of the decadal variability in global SSTs. The PDSI PCs and the SST PCs are directly correlated in a pairwise fashion. The first PDSI and SST PCs reflect variability of the detrended and smoothed annual Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as well as detrended and smoothed annual Indian Ocean SSTs. The second set of PCs is strongly associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The SVD analysis of the cross-covariance of the PDSI and SST data confirmed the close link between the PDSI and SST modes of decadal and multidecadal variation and provided a verification of the PCA results. These findings indicate that the major modes of multidecadal variations in SSTs and land-surface climate conditions are highly interrelated through a small number of spatially complex but slowly varying teleconnections. Therefore, these relations may be adaptable to providing improved baseline conditions for seasonal climate forecasting. Published in 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Global discrimination of land cover types from metrics derived from AVHRR pathfinder data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeFries, R.; Hansen, M.; Townshend, J.

1995-12-01

Global data sets of land cover are a significant requirement for global biogeochemical and climate models. Remotely sensed satellite data is an increasingly attractive source for deriving these data sets due to the resulting internal consistency, reproducibility, and coverage in locations where ground knowledge is sparse. Seasonal changes in the greenness of vegetation, described in remotely sensed data as changes in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) throughout the year, have been the basis for discriminating between cover types in previous attempts to derive land cover from AVHRR data at global and continental scales. This study examines the use ofmore » metrics derived from the NDVI temporal profile, as well as metrics derived from observations in red, infrared, and thermal bands, to improve discrimination between 12 cover types on a global scale. According to separability measures calculated from Bhattacharya distances, average separabilities improved by using 12 of the 16 metrics tested (1.97) compared to separabilities using 12 monthly NDVI values alone (1.88). Overall, the most robust metrics for discriminating between cover types were: mean NDVI, maximum NDVI, NDVI amplitude, AVHRR Band 2 (near-infrared reflectance) and Band 1 (red reflectance) corresponding to the time of maximum NDVI, and maximum land surface temperature. Deciduous and evergreen vegetation can be distinguished by mean NDVI, maximum NDVI, NDVI amplitude, and maximum land surface temperature. Needleleaf and broadleaf vegetation can be distinguished by either mean NDVI and NDVI amplitude or maximum NDVI and NDVI amplitude.« less

Fraction of the global water cycle observed by SMAP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mccoll, K. A.; Entekhabi, D.; Alemohammad, S. H.; Akbar, R.; Konings, A. G.; Yueh, S. H.

2016-12-01

Sparse and uneven observations have made it difficult to quantify the global distribution and dynamics of surface soil moisture (SSM). Using a full year of global observations from NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, we show here that SSM - a storage believed to make up less than 0.001% of the global freshwater budget by volume, and equivalent to an, on average, 8-mm thin layer of water covering all land surfaces - plays a very significant role in the water cycle, retaining a median 16% of precipitation falling on land after 3 days. Furthermore, the retained fraction of the SSM storage after 3 days is highest (lowest) over arid (wet) regions, and in regions where drainage to groundwater storage is lowest (highest). The retained fraction decreases monotonically with increasing mean SSM. Regions of low retained fraction broadly correspond spatially with regions where groundwater recharge and groundwater storage are both largest. These analyses are the first global estimates - derived from measurements rather than models - of both the mean magnitude and memory time scales of the SSM storage. Beyond the fundamental importance of characterizing the magnitude and response time scales of Earth's water storages, a key application of these results is in identifying regions with strong land-atmosphere coupling. Significant soil moisture memory is a necessary condition for land-atmosphere feedbacks. These results may therefore have particularly important implications for short-term weather forecasting of extreme precipitation events and floods.

Satellite-Derived Sea Surface Temperature: Workshop-2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Njoku, E. G.

1984-01-01

Global accuracies and error characteristics of presently orbiting satellite sensors are examined. The workshops are intended to lead to a better understanding of present capabilities for sea surface temperature measurement and to improve measurement concepts for the future. Data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer AVHRR and Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer is emphasized. Some data from the High Resolution Infrared Sounder HIRS and AVHRR are also examined. Comparisons of satellite data with ship and eXpendable BathyThermograph XBT measurement show standard deviations in the range 0.5 to 1.3 C with biases of less than 0.4 C, depending on the sensor, ocean region, and spatial/temporal averaging. The Sea Surface Temperature SST anomaly maps show good agreement in some cases, but a number of sensor related problems are identified.

A new formation control of multiple underactuated surface vessels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Wenjing; Ma, Baoli; Fernando, Tyrone; Iu, Herbert Ho-Ching

2018-05-01

This work investigates a new formation control problem of multiple underactuated surface vessels. The controller design is based on input-output linearisation technique, graph theory, consensus idea and some nonlinear tools. The proposed smooth time-varying distributed control law guarantees that the multiple underactuated surface vessels globally exponentially converge to some desired geometric shape, which is especially centred at the initial average position of vessels. Furthermore, the stability analysis of zero dynamics proves that the orientations of vessels tend to some constants that are dependent on the initial values of vessels, and the velocities and control inputs of the vessels decay to zero. All the results are obtained under the communication scenarios of static directed balanced graph with a spanning tree. Effectiveness of the proposed distributed control scheme is demonstrated using a simulation example.

Small change, big difference: Sea surface temperature distributions for tropical coral reef ecosystems, 1950-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lough, J. M.

2012-09-01

Changes in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) are examined over the period 1950-2011 during which global average temperature warmed by 0.4°C. Average tropical SST is warming about 70% of the global average rate. Spatially, significant warming between the two time periods, 1950-1980 and 1981-2011, has occurred across 65% of the tropical oceans. Coral reef ecosystems occupy 10% of the tropical oceans, typically in regions of warmer (+1.8°C) and less variable SST (80% of months within 3.3°C range) compared to non-reef areas (80% of months within 7.0°C range). SST is a primary controlling factor of coral reef distribution and coral reef organisms have already shown their sensitivity to the relatively small amount of warming observed so far through, for example, more frequent coral bleaching events and outbreaks of coral disease. Experimental evidence is also emerging of possible thermal thresholds in the range 30°C-32°C for some physiological processes of coral reef organisms. Relatively small changes in SST have already resulted in quite large differences in SST distribution with a maximum ‘hot spot’ of change in the near-equatorial Indo-Pacific which encompasses both the Indo-Pacific warm pools and the center of coral reef biodiversity. Identification of this hot spot of SST change is not new but this study highlights its significance with respect to tropical coral reef ecosystems. Given the modest amount of warming to date, changes in SST distribution are of particular concern for coral reefs given additional local anthropogenic stresses on many reefs and ongoing ocean acidification likely to increasingly compromise coral reef processes.

Io's Heat Flow: A Model Including "Warm" Polar Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veeder, G. J.; Matson, D. L.; Johnson, T. V.; Davies, A. G.; Blaney, D. L.

2002-12-01

Some 90 percent of Io's surface is thermally "passive" material. It is separate from the sites of active volcanic eruptions. Though "passive", its thermal behavior continues to be a challenge for modelers. The usual approach is to take albedo, average daytime temperature, temperature as a function of time of day, etc., and attempt to match these constraints with a uniform surface with a single value of thermal inertia. Io is a case where even globally averaged observations are inconsistent with a single-thermal-inertia model approach. The Veeder et al. (1994) model for "passive" thermal emission addressed seven constraints derived from a decade of ground-based, global observations - average albedo plus infrared fluxes at three separate wavelengths (4.8, 8.7, and 20 microns) for both daytime and eclipsed conditions. This model has only two components - a unit of infinite thermal inertia and a unit of zero thermal inertia. The free parameters are the areal coverage ratio of the two units and their relative albedos (constrained to match the known average albedo). This two-parameter model agreed with the global radiometric data and also predicted significantly higher non-volcanic nighttime temperatures than traditional ("lunar-like") single thermal inertia models. Recent observations from the Galileo infrared radiometer show relatively uniform minimum-night-time temperatures. In particular, they show little variation with either latitude or time of night (Spencer et al., 2000; Rathbun et al., 2002). Additionally, detailed analyses of Io's scattering properties and reflectance variations have led to the interesting conclusion that Io's albedo at regional scales varies little with latitude (Simonelli, et al., 2001). This effectively adds four new observational constraints - lack of albedo variation with latitude, average minimum nighttime temperature and lack of variation of temperature with either latitude or longitude. We have made the fewest modifications necessary for the Veeder et al. model to match these new constrains - we added two model parameters to characterize the volcanically heated high-latitude units. These are the latitude above which the unit exists and its nighttime temperature. The resulting four-parameter model is the first that encompasses all of the available observations of Io's thermal emission and that quantitatively satisfies all eleven observational constraints. While no model is unique, this model is significant because it is the first to accommodate widespread polar regions that are relatively "warm". This work was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract to NASA.

Amplification of global warming through pH dependence of DMS production simulated with a fully coupled Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwinger, Jörg; Tjiputra, Jerry; Goris, Nadine; Six, Katharina D.; Kirkevåg, Alf; Seland, Øyvind; Heinze, Christoph; Ilyina, Tatiana

2017-08-01

We estimate the additional transient surface warming ΔTs caused by a potential reduction of marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS) production due to ocean acidification under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 until the year 2200. Since we use a fully coupled Earth system model, our results include a range of feedbacks, such as the response of marine DMS production to the additional changes in temperature and sea ice cover. Our results are broadly consistent with the findings of a previous study that employed an offline model set-up. Assuming a medium (strong) sensitivity of DMS production to pH, we find an additional transient global warming of 0.30 K (0.47 K) towards the end of the 22nd century when DMS emissions are reduced by 7.3 Tg S yr-1 or 31 % (11.5 Tg S yr-1 or 48 %). The main mechanism behind the additional warming is a reduction of cloud albedo, but a change in shortwave radiative fluxes under clear-sky conditions due to reduced sulfate aerosol load also contributes significantly. We find an approximately linear relationship between reduction of DMS emissions and changes in top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes as well as changes in surface temperature for the range of DMS emissions considered here. For example, global average Ts changes by -0. 041 K per 1 Tg S yr-1 change in sea-air DMS fluxes. The additional warming in our model has a pronounced asymmetry between northern and southern high latitudes. It is largest over the Antarctic continent, where the additional temperature increase of 0.56 K (0.89 K) is almost twice the global average. We find that feedbacks are small on the global scale due to opposing regional contributions. The most pronounced feedback is found for the Southern Ocean, where we estimate that the additional climate change enhances sea-air DMS fluxes by about 9 % (15 %), which counteracts the reduction due to ocean acidification.

Climatic Effects of Medium-Sized Asteroid Impacts on Land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bardeen, C.; Garcia, R. R.; Toon, O. B.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Wolf, E. T.

2015-12-01

Using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), a three-dimensional coupled climate model with interactive chemistry, we have simulated the climate response to a medium-sized (1 km) asteroid impact on the land. An impact of this size would cause local fires and may also generate submicron dust particles. Dust aerosols are injected into the upper atmosphere where they persist for ~3 years. Soot aerosols from fires are injected into the troposphere and absorb solar radiation heating the air which helps loft the soot into the stratosphere where it persists for ~10 years. Initially, these aerosols cause a heating of over 240 K in the stratosphere and up to a 70% reduction in downwelling solar radiation at the surface. Global average surface temperature cools by as much as -8.5 K, ocean temperature cools by -4.5 K, precipitation is reduced by 50%, and the ozone column is reduced by 55%. The surface UV Index exceeds 20 in the tropics for several years. These changes represent a significant hazard to life on a global scale. These results extend the work of Pierazzo et al. (2010), also using CESM, which found a significant impact on stratospheric ozone, but little change in surface temperature or precipitation, from a 1 km asteroid impact in the ocean.

Quantum and classical dynamics of water dissociation on Ni(111): A test of the site-averaging model in dissociative chemisorption of polyatomic molecules

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Bin; Department of Chemical Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026; Guo, Hua, E-mail: hguo@unm.edu

Recently, we reported the first highly accurate nine-dimensional global potential energy surface (PES) for water interacting with a rigid Ni(111) surface, built on a large number of density functional theory points [B. Jiang and H. Guo, Phys. Rev. Lett. 114, 166101 (2015)]. Here, we investigate site-specific reaction probabilities on this PES using a quasi-seven-dimensional quantum dynamical model. It is shown that the site-specific reactivity is largely controlled by the topography of the PES instead of the barrier height alone, underscoring the importance of multidimensional dynamics. In addition, the full-dimensional dissociation probability is estimated by averaging fixed-site reaction probabilities with appropriatemore » weights. To validate this model and gain insights into the dynamics, additional quasi-classical trajectory calculations in both full and reduced dimensions have also been performed and important dynamical factors such as the steering effect are discussed.« less

MESSENGER at Mercury: Early Orbital Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McNutt, Ralph L., Jr; Solomon, Sean C.; Bedini, Peter D.; Anderson, Brian J.; Blewett, David T.; Evans, Larry G.; Gold, Robert E.; Krimigis, Stamatios M.; Murchie, Scott L.; Nittler, Larry R.;

MESSENGER at Mercury: Early Orbital Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McNutt, Ralph L., Jr.; Solomon, Sean C.; Bedini, Peter D.; Anderson, Brian J.; Blewett, David T.; Evans, Larry G.; Gold, Robert E.; Krimigis, Stamatios M.; Murchie, Scott L.; Nittler, Larry R.;

Three-dimensional elliptic grid generation for an F-16

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sorenson, Reese L.

1988-01-01

A case history depicting the effort to generate a computational grid for the simulation of transonic flow about an F-16 aircraft at realistic flight conditions is presented. The flow solver for which this grid is designed is a zonal one, using the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equations near the surface of the aircraft, and the Euler equations in regions removed from the aircraft. A body conforming global grid, suitable for the Euler equation, is first generated using 3-D Poisson equations having inhomogeneous terms modeled after the 2-D GRAPE code. Regions of the global grid are then designated for zonal refinement as appropriate to accurately model the flow physics. Grid spacing suitable for solution of the Navier-Stokes equations is generated in the refinement zones by simple subdivision of the given coarse grid intervals. That grid generation project is described, with particular emphasis on the global coarse grid.

Potential climate impact of black carbon emitted by rockets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, Martin; Mills, Michael; Toohey, Darin

2010-12-01

A new type of hydrocarbon rocket engine is expected to power a fleet of suborbital rockets for commercial and scientific purposes in coming decades. A global climate model predicts that emissions from a fleet of 1000 launches per year of suborbital rockets would create a persistent layer of black carbon particles in the northern stratosphere that could cause potentially significant changes in the global atmospheric circulation and distributions of ozone and temperature. Tropical stratospheric ozone abundances are predicted to change as much as 1%, while polar ozone changes by up to 6%. Polar surface temperatures change as much as one degree K regionally with significant impacts on polar sea ice fractions. After one decade of continuous launches, globally averaged radiative forcing from the black carbon would exceed the forcing from the emitted CO2 by a factor of about 105 and would be comparable to the radiative forcing estimated from current subsonic aviation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vallis, Geoffrey K.

The project had two main components. The first concerns estimating the climate sensitivity in the presence of forcing uncertainty and natural variability. Climate sensitivity is the increase in the average surface temperature for a given increase in greenhouse gases, for example a doubling of carbon dioxide. We have provided new, probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity using a simple climate model an the observed warming in the 20th century, in conjunction with ideas in data assimilation and parameter estimation developed in the engineering community. The estimates combine the uncertainty in the anthropogenic aerosols with the uncertainty arising because of natural variability.more » The second component concerns how the atmospheric circulation itself might change with anthropogenic global warming. We have shown that GCMs robustly predict an increase in the length scale of eddies, and we have also explored the dynamical mechanisms whereby there might be a shift in the latitude of the jet stream associated with anthropogenic warming. Such shifts in the jet might cause large changes in regional climate, potentially larger than the globally-averaged signal itself. We have also shown that the tropopause robustly increases in height with global warming, and that the Hadley Cell expands, and that the expansion of the Hadley Cell is correlated with the polewards movement of the mid-latitude jet.« less

Solar Activity and the Sea-surface Temperature Record-evidence of a Long-period Variation in Solar Total Irradiance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reid, George C.

1990-01-01

There have been many suggestions over the years of a connection between solar activity and the Earth's climate on time scales long compared to the 11-year sunspot cycle. They have remained little more than suggestions largely because of the major uncertainties in the climate record itself, and the difficulty in trying to compile a global average from an assembly of measurements that are uneven in both quality and distribution. Different climate time response to solar activity, some suggesting a positive correlation, some a negative correlation, and some no correlation at all. The only excuse for making yet another such suggestion is that much effort has been devoted in recent years to compiling climate records for the past century or more that are internally consistent and believable, and that a decadal-scale record of solar total irradiance is emerging from spacecraft measurements, and can be used to set limits on the variation that is likely to have occurred on these time scales. The work described here was originally inspired by the observation that the time series of globally averaged sea-surface temperatures over the past 120 years or so, as compiled by the British Meteorological Office group (Folland and Kates, 1984), bore a resonable similarity to the long-term average sunspot number, which is an indicator of the secular variability of solar activity. The two time series are shown where the sunspot number is shown as the 135-month running mean, and the SST variation is shown as the departure from an arbitrary average value. The simplest explanation of the similarity, if one accepts it as other than coincidental, is that the sun's luminosity may have been varying more or less in step with the level of solar activity, or in other words that there is a close coupling between the sun's magnetic condition and its radiative output on time scales longer than the 11-year cycle. Such an idea is not new, and in fact the time series shown can be regarded as a modern extension of the proposal put forward by Eddy (1977) to explain the covariance between various global climate indicators and solar activity as revealed by the C-14 record over the past millenium.

CERES Fast Longwave And SHortwave Radiative Flux (FLASHFlux) Version4A.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawaengphokhai, P.; Stackhouse, P. W., Jr.; Kratz, D. P.; Gupta, S. K.

2017-12-01

The agricultural, renewable energy management, and science communities need global surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes on a low latency basis. The Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) FLASHFlux (Fast Longwave and SHortwave radiative Flux) data products address this need by enhancing the speed of CERES processing using simplified calibration and parameterized model of surface fluxes to provide a daily global radiative fluxes data set within one week of satellite observations. The CERES FLASHFlux provides two data products: 1) an overpass swath Level 2 Single Scanner Footprint (SSF) data products separately for both Aqua and Terra observations, and 2) a daily Level 3 Time Interpolated and Spatially Averaged (TISA) 1o x 1o gridded data that combines Aqua and Terra observations. The CERES FLASHFlux data product is being promoted to Version4A. Updates to FLASHFlux Version4A include a new cloud retrieval algorithm and an improved shortwave surface flux parameterization. We inter-compared FLASHFlux Version4A, FLASHFlux Version3C, CERES Edition 4 Syn1Deg and at the monthly scale CERES Edition4 EBAF (Energy Balanced and Filled) Top-of-Atmosphere and Edition 4 Surface EBAF fluxes to evaluate these improvements. We also analyze the impact of the new inputs and cloud algorithm to the surface shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes using ground sites measurement provided by CAVE (CERES/ARM Validation Experiment).

Fifty Years of Water Cycle Change expressed in Ocean Salinity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durack, P. J.; Wijffels, S.

2010-12-01

Using over 1.6 million profiles of salinity, potential temperature and density from historical archives and Argo, we derive the global field of linear change for ocean state properties over the period 1950-2008, taking care to minimise aliasing associated with seasonal and El Nino Southern Oscillation modes. We find large, robust and spatially coherent multi-decadal linear trends in ocean surface salinities. Increases are found in evaporation-dominated regions and freshening in precipitation-dominated regions. The spatial patterns of surface change strongly resemble the climatological mean surface salinity field, consistent with an amplification of the global water cycle. A robust amplification of the mean salinity pattern of 8% (to 200m depth) is found globally and 5-9% is found in each of the 3 key ocean basins. 20th century runs from the CMIP3 model suite support the relationship between amplified patterns of freshwater flux driving an amplified pattern of ocean surface salinity only in models that warm substantially. Models with volcanic aerosols show a diminished warming response and a corresponding weak response in ocean surface salinity change, which implies dampened changes to the global water cycle. The warming response represented in realistic (when compared to observations) 20th century simulations appear quite similar in their broad zonal patterns to those of the projected 21st century simulations, these projected runs being strongly forced by greenhouse gases. This pattern amplification is mostly absent from 20th century simulations which include volcanic forcing. While we confirm that global mean precipitation only weakly change with surface warming (2-3% K-1), the pattern amplification rate in both the freshwater flux and ocean salinity fields indicate larger responses. Our new observed salinity estimates suggest a change of between 8-16% K-1, close to, or greater than, the theoretical response described by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. The underestimation of change patterns by the CMIP3 model suite is well documented in recent literature describing changes to the atmospheric and terrestrial arms of the global water cycle. These new observational ocean results add emphasis to the conclusion that the rate of observed changes in the 20th century are larger than CMIP3 models, and simplified physical theories predict. A) The 50-year linear surface salinity trend (pss/50-years). Contours every 0.25 pss are plotted in white. B) Ocean-atmosphere freshwater flux (m3 yr-1) averaged over 1980-1993 (Josey et al., 1998). Contours every 1 m3 yr-1 are in white. On both panels, the 1975 surface mean salinity is contoured black (contour interval 0.5 pss for thin lines, 1 for thick lines).

The Effect of Bond Albedo on Venus' Atmospheric and Surface Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bullock, M. A.; Limaye, S. S.; Grinspoon, D. H.; Way, M.

2017-12-01

In spite of Venus' high planetary albedo, sufficient solar energy reaches the surface to drive a powerful greenhouse effect. The surface temperature is three times higher than it would be without an atmosphere. However, the details of the energy balance within Venus' atmosphere are poorly understood. Half of the solar energy absorbed within the clouds, where most of the solar energy is absorbed, is due to an unknown agent. One of the challenges of modeling Venus' atmosphere has been to account for all the sources of opacity sufficient to generate a globally averaged surface temperature of 735 K, when only 2% of the incoming solar energy is deposited at the surface. The wavelength and spherically integrated albedo, or Bond albedo, has typically been cited as between 0.7 and 0.82 (Colin 1983). Yet, recent photometry of Venus at extended phase angles between 2 and 179° indicate a Bond albedo of 0.90 (Mallama et al., 2006). The authors note an increase in cloud top brightness at phase angles < 2°, which effectively increases the spherically integrated albedo. They suggest that forward scattering by the H2SO4/H2O aerosols of the upper cloud is responsible for Venus' high albedo at very low phase angles. The present work investigates the implications of such a high albedo for understanding and modeling the energy balance of Venus' atmosphere. Using the successful 1D radiative transfer model SimVenus that incorporates the opacity due to 9 major gases in Venus' atmosphere, as well as multiple scattering calculations of radiation within the clouds, the sensitivity of surface temperature was studied as a function of Bond albedo. Results of these model calculations are shown in Fig. 1. Figure 1a (left). Venus' atmospheric temperature profile for different values of Bond albedo. The structure and radiative effects of the clouds are fixed. Figure 1b (right). Venus surface temperature as Bond Albedo changes. Radiative-convective equilibrium models predict the correct globally averaged surface temperature at a=0.81. Calculations here show that a Bond albedo of a=0.9 would yield a surface temperature of 666.4 K, about 70 K too low, unless there is additional thermal absorption within the atmosphere that is not understood. Colin, L.,, Venus, University of Arizona Press, Tucson, 1983, pp 10-26. Mallama, A., et al., 2006. Icarus. 182, 10-22.

Comparison of MODIS Land Surface Temperature and Air Temperature over the Continental USA Meteorological Stations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Ping; Bounoua, Lahouari; Imhoff, Marc L.; Wolfe, Robert E.; Thome, Kurtis

2014-01-01

The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) Impervious Surface Area (ISA) and MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) are used in a spatial analysis to assess the surface-temperature-based urban heat island's (UHIS) signature on LST amplitude over the continental USA and to make comparisons to local air temperatures. Air-temperature-based UHIs (UHIA), calculated using the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) daily air temperatures, are compared with UHIS for urban areas in different biomes during different seasons. NLCD ISA is used to define urban and rural temperatures and to stratify the sampling for LST and air temperatures. We find that the MODIS LST agrees well with observed air temperature during the nighttime, but tends to overestimate it during the daytime, especially during summer and in nonforested areas. The minimum air temperature analyses show that UHIs in forests have an average UHIA of 1 C during the summer. The UHIS, calculated from nighttime LST, has similar magnitude of 1-2 C. By contrast, the LSTs show a midday summer UHIS of 3-4 C for cities in forests, whereas the average summer UHIA calculated from maximum air temperature is close to 0 C. In addition, the LSTs and air temperatures difference between 2006 and 2011 are in agreement, albeit with different magnitude.

Detection, causes and projection of climate change over China: An overview of recent progress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Yihui; Ren, Guoyu; Zhao, Zongci; Xu, Ying; Luo, Yong; Li, Qiaoping; Zhang, Jin

2007-11-01

This article summarizes the main results and findings of studies conducted by Chinese scientists in the past five years. It is shown that observed climate change in China bears a strong similarity with the global average. The country-averaged annual mean surface air temperature has increased by 1.1°C over the past 50 years and 0.5-0.8°C over the past 100 years, slightly higher than the global temperature increase for the same periods. Northern China and winter have experienced the greatest increases in surface air temperature. Although no significant trend has been found in country-averaged annual precipitation, interdecadal variability and obvious trends on regional scales are detectable, with northwestern China and the mid and lower Yangtze River basin having undergone an obvious increase, and North China a severe drought. Some analyses show that frequency and magnitude of extreme weather and climate events have also undergone significant changes in the past 50 years or so. Studies of the causes of regional climate change through the use of climate models and consideration of various forcings, show that the warming of the last 50 years could possibly be attributed to an increased atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, while the temperature change of the first half of the 20th century may be due to solar activity, volcanic eruptions and sea surface temperature change. A significant decline in sunshine duration and solar radiation at the surface in eastern China has been attributed to the increased emission of pollutants. Projections of future climate by models of the NCC (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration) and the IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences), as well as 40 models developed overseas, indicate a potential significant warming in China in the 21st century, with the largest warming set to occur in winter months and in northern China. Under varied emission scenarios, the country-averaged annual mean temperature is projected to increase by 1.5-2.1°C by 2020, 2.3-3.3°C by 2050, and by 3.9-6.0°C by 2100, in comparison to the 30-year average of 1961-1990. Most models project a 10%-12% increase in annual precipitation in China by 2100, with the trend being particularly evident in Northeast and Northwest China, but with parts of central China probably undergoing a drying trend. Large uncertainty exists in the projection of precipitation, and further studies are needed. Furthermore, anthropogenic climate change will probably lead to a weaker winter monsoon and a stronger summer monsoon in eastern Asia.

Global projections and climate stabilisation targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedlingstein, Pierre

2014-05-01

The Summary for policy makers of the 5th Assessment Report of the Working Group 1 of IPCC has a figure that has no equivalent in previous IPCC assessment reports. This new figure shows the change in global average surface temperature as a function of cumulative anthropogenic emissions of CO2. In this talk I will describe how the concept of transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) that supports that figure emerged from the literature over the recent years and what are the fundamental physical and biogeochemical processes that explain this relationship and its linearity. I will also explore the implication of TCRE for long-term climate change and mitigation strategies as well as the limitations of the concept of TCRE.

Global tectonics and space geodesy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gordon, Richard G.; Stein, Seth

1992-01-01

Much of the success of plate tectonics can be attributed to the near rigidity of tectonic plates and the availability of data that describe the rates and directions of motion across narrow plate boundaries of about 1 to 60 kilometers. Nonetheless, many plate boundaries in both continental and oceanic lithosphere are not narrow but are hundreds to thousands of kilometers wide. Wide plate boundary zones cover approximately 15 percent of earth's surface area. Space geodesy, which includes very long baseline radio interferometry, satellite laser ranging, and the global positioning system, provides the accurate long-distance measurements needed to estimate the present motion across and within wide plate boundary zones. Space geodetic data show that plate velocities averaged over years are remarkably similar to velocities avaraged over millions of years.

Methane emissions from tundra environments in the Yukon-Kuskokwin Delta, Alaska

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bartlett, Karen B.; Crill, Patrick M.; Sass, Ronald L.; Harriss, Robert C.; Dise, Nancy B.

1992-01-01

This paper reports CH4 flux to the atmosphere from a variety of tundra environments near Bethel, Alaska during the summer months of 1988. Emissions from wet meadow tundra averaged 144 +/- 31 mg/sq m/d and ranged from 15.6 to 426 mg/sq m/d varying with soil moisture and temperature. Flux from the drier upland tundra was about two orders of magnitude lower and averaged 2.3 +/- 1.1 mg/sq m/d. Tundra lakes emit CH4 from the open water surface as well as from fringing aquatic vegetation; the presence of vegetation significantly enhanced flux over open water rates. Calculated diffusive fluxes from open water varied with lake size, the large lakes emitting 3.8 mg/sq m/d and small lakes emitting an average of 77 mg/sq m/d. An updated estimate of global emissions from tundra indicates an annual fluxes of approximately 11 +/- 3 Tg CH4.

File Specification for the 7-km GEOS-5 Nature Run, Ganymed Release Non-Hydrostatic 7-km Global Mesoscale Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

da Silva, Arlindo M.; Putman, William; Nattala, J.

2014-01-01

This document describes the gridded output files produced by a two-year global, non-hydrostatic mesoscale simulation for the period 2005-2006 produced with the non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5 Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM). In addition to standard meteorological parameters (wind, temperature, moisture, surface pressure), this simulation includes 15 aerosol tracers (dust, sea-salt, sulfate, black and organic carbon), O3, CO and CO2. This model simulation is driven by prescribed sea-surface temperature and sea-ice, daily volcanic and biomass burning emissions, as well as high-resolution inventories of anthropogenic sources. A description of the GEOS-5 model configuration used for this simulation can be found in Putman et al. (2014). The simulation is performed at a horizontal resolution of 7 km using a cubed-sphere horizontal grid with 72 vertical levels, extending up to to 0.01 hPa (approximately 80 km). For user convenience, all data products are generated on two logically rectangular longitude-latitude grids: a full-resolution 0.0625 deg grid that approximately matches the native cubed-sphere resolution, and another 0.5 deg reduced-resolution grid. The majority of the full-resolution data products are instantaneous with some fields being time-averaged. The reduced-resolution datasets are mostly time-averaged, with some fields being instantaneous. Hourly data intervals are used for the reduced-resolution datasets, while 30-minute intervals are used for the full-resolution products. All full-resolution output is on the model's native 72-layer hybrid sigma-pressure vertical grid, while the reduced-resolution output is given on native vertical levels and on 48 pressure surfaces extending up to 0.02 hPa. Section 4 presents additional details on horizontal and vertical grids. Information of the model surface representation can be found in Appendix B. The GEOS-5 product is organized into file collections that are described in detail in Appendix C. Additional details about variables listed in this file specification can be found in a separate document, the GEOS-5 File Specification Variable Definition Glossary. Documentation about the current access methods for products described in this document can be found on the GEOS-5 Nature Run portal: http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/projects/G5NR. Information on the scientific quality of this simulation will appear in a forthcoming NASA Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation to be available from http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/pubs/tm/.

The Impact of Dielectric Constant Model and Surface Reference on Differences Between SMOS and Aquarius Sea Surface Salinity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dinnat, E. P.; Boutin, J.; Yin, X.; LeVine, D. M.

2014-01-01

Two ongoing space missions share the scientific objective of mapping the global Sea Surface Salinity (SSS), yet their observations show significant discrepancies. ESA's Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and NASA's Aquarius use L-band (1.4 GHz) radiometers to measure emission from the sea surface and retrieve SSS. Significant differences in SSS retrieved by both sensors are observed, with SMOS SSS being generally lower than Aquarius SSS, except for very cold waters where SMOS SSS is the highest overall. Figure 1 is an example of the difference between the SSS retrieved by SMOS and Aquarius averaged over one month and 1 degree in longitude and latitude. Differences are mostly between -1 psu and +1 psu (psu, practical salinity unit), with a significant regional and latitudinal dependence. We investigate the impact of the vicarious calibration and retrieval algorithm used by both mission on these differences.

3D Topology Preserving Flows for Viewpoint-Based Cortical Unfolding

PubMed Central

Rocha, Kelvin R.; Sundaramoorthi, Ganesh; Yezzi, Anthony J.; Prince, Jerry L.

2009-01-01

We present a variational method for unfolding of the cortex based on a user-chosen point of view as an alternative to more traditional global flattening methods, which incur more distortion around the region of interest. Our approach involves three novel contributions. The first is an energy function and its corresponding gradient flow to measure the average visibility of a region of interest of a surface with respect to a given viewpoint. The second is an additional energy function and flow designed to preserve the 3D topology of the evolving surface. The third is a method that dramatically improves the computational speed of the 3D topology preservation approach by creating a tree structure of the 3D surface and using a recursion technique. Experiments results show that the proposed approach can successfully unfold highly convoluted surfaces such as the cortex while preserving their topology. PMID:19960105

A satellite snow depth multi-year average derived from SSM/I for the high latitude regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Biancamaria, S.; Mognard, N.M.; Boone, A.; Grippa, M.; Josberger, E.G.

2008-01-01

The hydrological cycle for high latitude regions is inherently linked with the seasonal snowpack. Thus, accurately monitoring the snow depth and the associated aerial coverage are critical issues for monitoring the global climate system. Passive microwave satellite measurements provide an optimal means to monitor the snowpack over the arctic region. While the temporal evolution of snow extent can be observed globally from microwave radiometers, the determination of the corresponding snow depth is more difficult. A dynamic algorithm that accounts for the dependence of the microwave scattering on the snow grain size has been developed to estimate snow depth from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) brightness temperatures and was validated over the U.S. Great Plains and Western Siberia. The purpose of this study is to assess the dynamic algorithm performance over the entire high latitude (land) region by computing a snow depth multi-year field for the time period 1987-1995. This multi-year average is compared to the Global Soil Wetness Project-Phase2 (GSWP2) snow depth computed from several state-of-the-art land surface schemes and averaged over the same time period. The multi-year average obtained by the dynamic algorithm is in good agreement with the GSWP2 snow depth field (the correlation coefficient for January is 0.55). The static algorithm, which assumes a constant snow grain size in space and time does not correlate with the GSWP2 snow depth field (the correlation coefficient with GSWP2 data for January is - 0.03), but exhibits a very high anti-correlation with the NCEP average January air temperature field (correlation coefficient - 0.77), the deepest satellite snow pack being located in the coldest regions, where the snow grain size may be significantly larger than the average value used in the static algorithm. The dynamic algorithm performs better over Eurasia (with a correlation coefficient with GSWP2 snow depth equal to 0.65) than over North America (where the correlation coefficient decreases to 0.29). ?? 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A drifting GPS buoy for retrieving effective riverbed bathymetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hostache, R.; Matgen, P.; Giustarini, L.; Teferle, F. N.; Tailliez, C.; Iffly, J.-F.; Corato, G.

2015-01-01

Spatially distributed riverbed bathymetry information are rarely available but mandatory for accurate hydrodynamic modeling. This study aims at evaluating the potential of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), like for instance Global Positioning System (GPS), for retrieving such data. Drifting buoys equipped with navigation systems such as GPS enable the quasi-continuous measurement of water surface elevation, from virtually any point in the world. The present study investigates the potential of assimilating GNSS-derived water surface elevation measurements into hydraulic models in order to retrieve effective riverbed bathymetry. First tests with a GPS dual-frequency receiver show that the root mean squared error (RMSE) on the elevation measurement equals 30 cm provided that a differential post processing is performed. Next, synthetic observations of a drifting buoy were generated assuming a 30 cm average error of Water Surface Elevation (WSE) measurements. By assimilating the synthetic observation into a 1D-Hydrodynamic model, we show that the riverbed bathymetry can be retrieved with an accuracy of 36 cm. Moreover, the WSEs simulated by the hydrodynamic model using the retrieved bathymetry are in good agreement with the synthetic "truth", exhibiting an RMSE of 27 cm.

Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) Products from NASA Hydrology Data and Information Services Center (HDISC)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fang, Hongliang; Hrubiak, Patricia; Kato, Hiroko; Rodell, Matthew; Teng, William L.; Vollmer, Bruce E.

2008-01-01

The Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) is generating a series of land surface state (e.g., soil moisture and surface temperature) and flux (e.g., evaporation and sensible heat flux) products simulated by four land surface models (CLM, Mosaic, Noah and VIC). These products are now accessible at the Hydrology Data and Information Services Center (HDISC), a component of the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). Current data holdings include a set of 1.0 degree resolution data products from the four models, covering 1979 to the present; and a 0.25 degree data product from the Noah model, covering 2000 to the present. The products are in Gridded Binary (GRIB) format and can be accessed through a number of interfaces. New data formats (e.g., netCDF), temporal averaging and spatial subsetting will be available in the future. The HDISC has the capability to support more hydrology data products and more advanced analysis tools. The goal is to develop HDISC as a data and services portal that supports weather and climate forecast, and water and energy cycle research.

Analysis of the Effects of Surface Pitting and Wear on the Vibrations of a Gear Transmission System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choy, F. K.; Polyshchuk, V.; Zakrajsek, J. J.; Handschuh, R. F.; Townsend, D. P.

1994-01-01

A comprehensive procedure to simulate and analyze the vibrations in a gear transmission system with surface pitting, 'wear' and partial tooth fracture of the gear teeth is presented. An analytical model was developed where the effects of surface pitting and wear of the gear tooth were simulated by phase and magnitude changes in the gear mesh stiffness. Changes in the gear mesh stiffness were incorporated into each gear-shaft model during the global dynamic simulation of the system. The overall dynamics of the system were evaluated by solving for the transient dynamics of each shaft system simultaneously with the vibration of the gearbox structure. In order to reduce the number of degrees-of-freedom in the system, a modal synthesis procedure was used in the global transient dynamic analysis of the overall transmission system. An FFT procedure was used to transform the averaged time signal into the frequency domain for signature analysis. In addition, the Wigner-Ville distribution was also introduced to examine the gear vibration in the joint time frequency domain for vibration pattern recognition. Experimental results obtained from a gear fatigue test rig at NASA Lewis Research Center were used to evaluate the analytical model.

Observational Evidence for Enhanced Greenhouse Effect Reinforcing Wintertime Arctic Amplification and Sea Ice Melting Onset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Y.; Liang, S.

2017-12-01

Despite an apparent hiatus in global warming, the Arctic climate continues to experience unprecedented changes. Summer sea ice is retreating at an accelerated rate, and surface temperatures in this region are rising at a rate double that of the global average, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. Although a lot of efforts have been made, the causes this unprecedented phenomenon remain unclear and are subjects of considerable debate. In this study, we report strong observational evidence, for the first time from long-term (1984-2014) spatially complete satellite records, that increased cloudiness and atmospheric water vapor in winter and spring have caused an extraordinary downward longwave radiative flux to the ice surface, which may then amplify the Arctic wintertime ice-surface warming. In addition, we also provide observed evidence that it is quite likely the enhancement of the wintertime greenhouse effect caused by water vapor and cloudiness has advanced the time of onset of ice melting in mid-May through inhibiting sea-ice refreezing in the winter and accelerating the pre-melting process in the spring, and in turn triggered the positive sea-ice albedo feedback process and accelerated the sea ice melting in the summer.

The Pliocene paradox (mechanisms for a permanent El Niño).

PubMed

Fedorov, A V; Dekens, P S; McCarthy, M; Ravelo, A C; deMenocal, P B; Barreiro, M; Pacanowski, R C; Philander, S G

2006-06-09

During the early Pliocene, 5 to 3 million years ago, globally averaged temperatures were substantially higher than they are today, even though the external factors that determine climate were essentially the same. In the tropics, El Niño was continual (or "permanent") rather than intermittent. The appearance of northern continental glaciers, and of cold surface waters in oceanic upwelling zones in low latitudes (both coastal and equatorial), signaled the termination of those warm climate conditions and the end of permanent El Niño. This led to the amplification of obliquity (but not precession) cycles in equatorial sea surface temperatures and in global ice volume, with the former leading the latter by several thousand years. A possible explanation is that the gradual shoaling of the oceanic thermocline reached a threshold around 3 million years ago, when the winds started bringing cold waters to the surface in low latitudes. This introduced feedbacks involving ocean-atmosphere interactions that, along with ice-albedo feedbacks, amplified obliquity cycles. A future melting of glaciers, changes in the hydrological cycle, and a deepening of the thermocline could restore the warm conditions of the early Pliocene.

Surface Meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) Data Release 5.1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stackhouse, Paul W. (Principal Investigator)

The Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) data set contains over 200 parameters formulated for assessing and designing renewable energy systems.The SSE data set is formulated from NASA satellite- and reanalysis-derived insolation and meteorological data for the 10-year period July 1983 through June 1993. Results are provided for 1 degree latitude by 1 degree longitude grid cells over the globe. Average daily and monthly measurements for 1195 World Radiation Data Centre ground sites are also available. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1983-07-01; Stop_Date=1993-06-30] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1 degree; Longitude_Resolution=1 degree].

SVD analysis of Aura TES spectral residuals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beer, Reinhard; Kulawik, Susan S.; Rodgers, Clive D.; Bowman, Kevin W.

2005-01-01

Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis is both a powerful diagnostic tool and an effective method of noise filtering. We present the results of an SVD analysis of an ensemble of spectral residuals acquired in September 2004 from a 16-orbit Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) Global Survey and compare them to alternative methods such as zonal averages. In particular, the technique highlights issues such as the orbital variation of instrument response and incompletely modeled effects of surface emissivity and atmospheric composition.

Hydrological simulations in the Rhine basin.

PubMed

van den Hurk, B; Beersma, J; Lenderink, G

2005-01-01

Simulations with regional climate models (RCMs), carried out for the Rhine basin, have been analyzed in the context of implications of the possible future discharge of the Rhine river. In a first analysis, the runoff generated by the RCMs is compared to observations, in order to detect the way the RCMs treat anomalies in precipitation in their land surface component. A second analysis is devoted to the frequency distribution of area averaged precipitation, and the impact of selection of various driving global climate models.

Radiative Forcing Due to Enhancements in Tropospheric Ozone and Carbonaceous Aerosols Caused by Asian Fires During Spring 2008

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Natarajan, Murali; Pierce, R. Bradley; Lenzen, Allen J.; Al-Saadi, Jassim A.; Soja, Amber J.; Charlock, Thomas P.; Rose, Fred G.; Winker, David M.; Worden, John R.

2012-01-01

Simulations of tropospheric ozone and carbonaceous aerosol distributions, conducted with the Real-time Air Quality Modeling System (RAQMS), are used to study the effects of major outbreaks of fires that occurred in three regions of Asia, namely Thailand, Kazakhstan, and Siberia, during spring 2008. RAQMS is a global scale meteorological and chemical modeling system. Results from these simulations, averaged over April 2008, indicate that tropospheric ozone column increases by more than 10 Dobson units (DU) near the Thailand region, and by lesser amounts in the other regions due to the fires. Widespread increases in the optical depths of organic and black carbon aerosols are also noted. We have used an off-line radiative transfer model to evaluate the direct radiative forcing due to the fire-induced changes in atmospheric composition. For clear sky, the monthly averaged radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is mostly negative with peak values less than -12 W/sq m occurring near the fire regions. The negative forcing represents the increased outgoing shortwave radiation caused by scattering due to carbonaceous aerosols. At high latitudes, the radiative forcing is positive due to the presence of absorbing aerosols over regions of high surface albedo. Regions of positive forcing at TOA are more pronounced under total sky conditions. The monthly averaged radiative forcing at the surface is mostly negative, and peak values of less than -30 W/sq m occur near the fire regions. Persistently large negative forcing at the surface could alter the surface energy budget and potentially weaken the hydrological cycle.

ENSO Weather and Coral Bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGowan, Hamish; Theobald, Alison

2017-10-01

The most devastating mass coral bleaching has occurred during El Niño events, with bleaching reported to be a direct result of increased sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, El Niño itself does not cause SSTs to rise in all regions that experience bleaching. Nor is the upper ocean warming trend of 0.11°C per decade since 1971, attributed to global warming, sufficient alone to exceed the thermal tolerance of corals. Here we show that weather patterns during El Niño that result in reduced cloud cover, higher than average air temperatures and higher than average atmospheric pressures, play a crucial role in determining the extent and location of coral bleaching on the world's largest coral reef system, the World Heritage Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Accordingly, synoptic-scale weather patterns and local atmosphere-ocean feedbacks related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and not large-scale SST warming due to El Niño alone and/or global warming are often the cause of coral bleaching on the GBR.

Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to calibrate probabilistic surface temperature forecasts over Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soltanzadeh, I.; Azadi, M.; Vakili, G. A.

2011-07-01

Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), an attempt was made to obtain calibrated probabilistic numerical forecasts of 2-m temperature over Iran. The ensemble employs three limited area models (WRF, MM5 and HRM), with WRF used with five different configurations. Initial and boundary conditions for MM5 and WRF are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) and for HRM the initial and boundary conditions come from analysis of Global Model Europe (GME) of the German Weather Service. The resulting ensemble of seven members was run for a period of 6 months (from December 2008 to May 2009) over Iran. The 48-h raw ensemble outputs were calibrated using BMA technique for 120 days using a 40 days training sample of forecasts and relative verification data. The calibrated probabilistic forecasts were assessed using rank histogram and attribute diagrams. Results showed that application of BMA improved the reliability of the raw ensemble. Using the weighted ensemble mean forecast as a deterministic forecast it was found that the deterministic-style BMA forecasts performed usually better than the best member's deterministic forecast.

Variations and controls on crustal thermal regimes in Southeastern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mather, Ben; McLaren, Sandra; Taylor, David; Roy, Sukanta; Moresi, Louis

2018-01-01

The surface heat flow field in Australia has for many years been poorly constrained compared to continental regions elsewhere. 182 recent heat flow determinations and 66 new heat production measurements for Southeastern Australia significantly increase our understanding of local and regional lithospheric thermal regimes and allow for detailed thermal modelling. The new data give a mean surface heat flow for Victoria of 71 ± 15 mW m- 2 which fits within the 61-77 mW m- 2 range reported for Phanerozoic-aged crust globally. These data reveal three new thermally and compositionally distinct heat flow sub-provinces within the previously defined Eastern Heat Flow Province: the Delamerian heat flow sub-province (average surface heat flow 60 ± 9 mW m- 2); the Lachlan heat flow sub-province (average surface heat flow 74 ± 13 mW m- 2); and the Newer Volcanics heat flow sub-province (average surface heat flow 72 ± 16 mW m- 2) which includes extreme values that locally exceed 100 mW m- 2. Inversions of reduced heat flow and crustal differentiation find that the Delamerian sub-province has experienced significant crustal reworking compared to the Lachlan and Newer Volcanics sub-provinces. The latter has experienced volcanism within the last 8 Ma and the degree of variability observed in surface heat flow points (up to 8 mW m- 2 per kilometre laterally) cannot be replicated with steady-state thermal models through this sub-province. In the absence of a strong palaeoclimate signal, aquifer disturbances, or highly enriched granites, we suggest that this high variability arises from localised transient perturbations to the upper crust associated with recent intraplate volcanism. This is supported by a strong spatial correlation of high surface heat flow and known eruption points within the Newer Volcanics heat flow sub-province.

The structure of the NO(X (2)Pi)-N(2) complex: A joint experimental-theoretical study.

PubMed

Wen, B; Meyer, H; Kłos, J

2010-04-21

We report the first measurement of the spectrum of the NO-N(2) complex in the region of the first vibrational NO overtone transition. The origin band of the complex is blueshifted by 0.30 cm(-1) from the corresponding NO monomer frequency. The observed spectrum consists of three bands assigned to the origin band, the excitation of one quantum of z-axis rotation and one associated hot band. The spacing of the bands and the rotational structure indicate a T-shaped vibrationally averaged structure with the NO molecule forming the top of the T. These findings are confirmed by high level ab initio calculations of the potential energy surfaces in planar symmetry. The deepest minimum is found for a T-shaped geometry on the A(")-surface. As a result the sum potential also has the global minimum for this structure. The different potential surfaces show several additional local minima at slightly higher energies indicating that the complex most likely will perform large amplitude motion even in its ground vibrational state. Nevertheless, as suggested by the measured spectra, the complex must, on average, spend a substantial amount of time near the T-shaped configuration.

Climate pattern-scaling set for an ensemble of 22 GCMs - adding uncertainty to the IMOGEN version 2.0 impact system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zelazowski, Przemyslaw; Huntingford, Chris; Mercado, Lina M.; Schaller, Nathalie

2018-02-01

Global circulation models (GCMs) are the best tool to understand climate change, as they attempt to represent all the important Earth system processes, including anthropogenic perturbation through fossil fuel burning. However, GCMs are computationally very expensive, which limits the number of simulations that can be made. Pattern scaling is an emulation technique that takes advantage of the fact that local and seasonal changes in surface climate are often approximately linear in the rate of warming over land and across the globe. This allows interpolation away from a limited number of available GCM simulations, to assess alternative future emissions scenarios. In this paper, we present a climate pattern-scaling set consisting of spatial climate change patterns along with parameters for an energy-balance model that calculates the amount of global warming. The set, available for download, is derived from 22 GCMs of the WCRP CMIP3 database, setting the basis for similar eventual pattern development for the CMIP5 and forthcoming CMIP6 ensemble. Critically, it extends the use of the IMOGEN (Integrated Model Of Global Effects of climatic aNomalies) framework to enable scanning across full uncertainty in GCMs for impact studies. Across models, the presented climate patterns represent consistent global mean trends, with a maximum of 4 (out of 22) GCMs exhibiting the opposite sign to the global trend per variable (relative humidity). The described new climate regimes are generally warmer, wetter (but with less snowfall), cloudier and windier, and have decreased relative humidity. Overall, when averaging individual performance across all variables, and without considering co-variance, the patterns explain one-third of regional change in decadal averages (mean percentage variance explained, PVE, 34.25 ± 5.21), but the signal in some models exhibits much more linearity (e.g. MIROC3.2(hires): 41.53) than in others (GISS_ER: 22.67). The two most often considered variables, near-surface temperature and precipitation, have a PVE of 85.44 ± 4.37 and 14.98 ± 4.61, respectively. We also provide an example assessment of a terrestrial impact (changes in mean runoff) and compare projections by the IMOGEN system, which has one land surface model, against direct GCM outputs, which all have alternative representations of land functioning. The latter is noted as an additional source of uncertainty. Finally, current and potential future applications of the IMOGEN version 2.0 modelling system in the areas of ecosystem modelling and climate change impact assessment are presented and discussed.

Resolved spectrophotometric properties of the Ceres surface from Dawn Framing Camera images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröder, S. E.; Mottola, S.; Carsenty, U.; Ciarniello, M.; Jaumann, R.; Li, J.-Y.; Longobardo, A.; Palmer, E.; Pieters, C.; Preusker, F.; Raymond, C. A.; Russell, C. T.

2017-05-01

We present a global spectrophotometric characterization of the Ceres surface using Dawn Framing Camera (FC) images. We identify the photometric model that yields the best results for photometrically correcting images. Corrected FC images acquired on approach to Ceres were assembled into global maps of albedo and color. Generally, albedo and color variations on Ceres are muted. The albedo map is dominated by a large, circular feature in Vendimia Planitia, known from HST images (Li et al., 2006), and dotted by smaller bright features mostly associated with fresh-looking craters. The dominant color variation over the surface is represented by the presence of "blue" material in and around such craters, which has a negative spectral slope over the visible wavelength range when compared to average terrain. We also mapped variations of the phase curve by employing an exponential photometric model, a technique previously applied to asteroid Vesta (Schröder et al., 2013b). The surface of Ceres scatters light differently from Vesta in the sense that the ejecta of several fresh-looking craters may be physically smooth rather than rough. High albedo, blue color, and physical smoothness all appear to be indicators of youth. The blue color may result from the desiccation of ejected material that is similar to the phyllosilicates/water ice mixtures in the experiments of Poch et al. (2016). The physical smoothness of some blue terrains would be consistent with an initially liquid condition, perhaps as a consequence of impact melting of subsurface water ice. We find red terrain (positive spectral slope) near Ernutet crater, where De Sanctis et al. (2017) detected organic material. The spectrophotometric properties of the large Vendimia Planitia feature suggest it is a palimpsest, consistent with the Marchi et al. (2016) impact basin hypothesis. The central bright area in Occator crater, Cerealia Facula, is the brightest on Ceres with an average visual normal albedo of about 0.6 at a resolution of 1.3 km per pixel (six times Ceres average). The albedo of fresh, bright material seen inside this area in the highest resolution images (35 m per pixel) is probably around unity. Cerealia Facula has an unusually steep phase function, which may be due to unresolved topography, high surface roughness, or large average particle size. It has a strongly red spectrum whereas the neighboring, less-bright, Vinalia Faculae are neutral in color. We find no evidence for a diurnal ground fog-type haze in Occator as described by Nathues et al. (2015). We can neither reproduce their findings using the same images, nor confirm them using higher resolution images. FC images have not yet offered direct evidence for present sublimation in Occator.

Disk-averaged synthetic spectra of Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tinetti, Giovanna; Meadows, Victoria S.; Crisp, David; Fong, William; Velusamy, Thangasamy; Snively, Heather

2005-01-01

The principal goal of the NASA Terrestrial Planet Finder (TPF) and European Space Agency's Darwin mission concepts is to directly detect and characterize extrasolar terrestrial (Earthsized) planets. This first generation of instruments is expected to provide disk-averaged spectra with modest spectral resolution and signal-to-noise. Here we use a spatially and spectrally resolved model of a Mars-like planet to study the detectability of a planet's surface and atmospheric properties from disk-averaged spectra. We explore the detectability as a function of spectral resolution and wavelength range, for both the proposed visible coronograph (TPFC) and mid-infrared interferometer (TPF-I/Darwin) architectures. At the core of our model is a spectrum-resolving (line-by-line) atmospheric/surface radiative transfer model. This model uses observational data as input to generate a database of spatially resolved synthetic spectra for a range of illumination conditions and viewing geometries. The model was validated against spectra recorded by the Mars Global Surveyor-Thermal Emission Spectrometer and the Mariner 9-Infrared Interferometer Spectrometer. Results presented here include disk-averaged synthetic spectra, light curves, and the spectral variability at visible and mid-infrared wavelengths for Mars as a function of viewing angle, illumination, and season. We also considered the differences in the spectral appearance of an increasingly ice-covered Mars, as a function of spectral resolution, signal-to-noise and integration time for both TPF-C and TPFI/ Darwin.

Disk-averaged synthetic spectra of Mars.

PubMed

Tinetti, Giovanna; Meadows, Victoria S; Crisp, David; Fong, William; Velusamy, Thangasamy; Snively, Heather

2005-08-01

The principal goal of the NASA Terrestrial Planet Finder (TPF) and European Space Agency's Darwin mission concepts is to directly detect and characterize extrasolar terrestrial (Earthsized) planets. This first generation of instruments is expected to provide disk-averaged spectra with modest spectral resolution and signal-to-noise. Here we use a spatially and spectrally resolved model of a Mars-like planet to study the detectability of a planet's surface and atmospheric properties from disk-averaged spectra. We explore the detectability as a function of spectral resolution and wavelength range, for both the proposed visible coronograph (TPFC) and mid-infrared interferometer (TPF-I/Darwin) architectures. At the core of our model is a spectrum-resolving (line-by-line) atmospheric/surface radiative transfer model. This model uses observational data as input to generate a database of spatially resolved synthetic spectra for a range of illumination conditions and viewing geometries. The model was validated against spectra recorded by the Mars Global Surveyor-Thermal Emission Spectrometer and the Mariner 9-Infrared Interferometer Spectrometer. Results presented here include disk-averaged synthetic spectra, light curves, and the spectral variability at visible and mid-infrared wavelengths for Mars as a function of viewing angle, illumination, and season. We also considered the differences in the spectral appearance of an increasingly ice-covered Mars, as a function of spectral resolution, signal-to-noise and integration time for both TPF-C and TPFI/ Darwin.

The global star formation law of galaxies revisited in the radio continuum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, LiJie; Gao, Yu

2012-02-01

We study the global star formation law, the relation between the gas and star formation rate (SFR) in a sample of 130 local galaxies with infrared (IR) luminosities spanning over three orders of magnitude (109-1012 L⊙), which includes 91 normal spiral galaxies and 39 (ultra)luminous IR galaxies [(U)LIRGs]. We derive their total (atomic and molecular) gas and dense molecular gas masses using newly available HI, CO and HCN data from the literature. The SFR of galaxies is determined from total IR (8-1000 μm) and 1.4 GHz radio continuum (RC) luminosities. The galaxy disk sizes are defined by the de-convolved elliptical Gaussian FWHM of the RC maps. We derive the galaxy disk-averaged SFRs and various gas surface densities, and investigate their relationships. We find that the galaxy disk-averaged surface density of dense molecular gas mass has the tightest correlation with that of SFR (scatter ˜0.26 dex), and is linear in log-log space (power-law slope of N=1.03±0.02) across the full galaxy sample. The correlation between the total gas and SFR surface densities for the full sample has a somewhat larger scatter (˜0.48 dex), and is best fit by a power-law with slope 1.45±0.02. However, the slope changes from ˜1 when only normal spirals are considered, to ˜1.5 when more and more (U)LIRGs are included in the fitting. When different CO-to-H2 conversion factors are used to infer molecular gas masses for normal galaxies and (U)LIRGs, the bi-modal relations claimed recently in CO observations of high-redshift galaxies appear to also exist in local populations of star-forming galaxies.

A carbon dioxide/methane greenhouse atmosphere on early Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, L. L.; Kasting, J. F.

1993-01-01

One explanation for the formation of fluvial surface features on early Mars is that the global average surface temperature was maintained at or above the freezing point of water by the greenhouse warming of a dense CO2 atmosphere; however, Kasting has shown that CO2 alone is insufficient because the formation of CO2 clouds reduces the magnitude of the greenhouse effect. It is possible that other gases, such as NH3 and CH4, were present in the early atmosphere of Mars and contributed to the greenhouse effect. Kasting et al. investigated the effect of NH3 in a CO2 atmosphere and calculated that an NH3 mixing ratio of approximately 5 x 10 (exp -4) by volume, combined with a CO2 partial pressure of 4-5 bar, could generate a global average surface temperature of 273 K near 3.8 b.y. ago when the fluvial features are believed to have formed. Atmospheric NH3 is photochemically converted to N2 by ultraviolet radiation at wavelengths shortward of 230 nm; maintenance of sufficient NH3 concentrations would therefore require a source of NH3 to balance the photolytic destruction. We have used a one-dimensional photochemical model to estimate the magnitude of the NH3 source required to maintain a given NH3 concentration in a dense CO2 atmosphere. We calculate that an NH3 mixing ratio of 10(exp -4) requires a flux of NH3 on the order of 10(exp 12) molecules /cm-s. This figure is several orders of magnitude greater than estimates of the NH3 flux on early Mars; thus it appears that NH3 with CO2 is not enough to keep early Mars warm.

40 Years of Glacier Change across the Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, J. M.; Schaefer, J. M.; Rupper, S.

2017-12-01

Himalayan glaciers are central to societies, ecologies, and landscapes in South Asia. Retreating glaciers have been observed in the Himalayas from in-situ and satellite remote sensing measurements, yet different approaches provide a wide range of mass budget estimates. As glaciers respond dynamically to climate over decades and centuries, more observations of past glacier states are needed to gain perspective on existing shorter-timespan ice loss estimates, minimize effects of interannual variability, and to robustly evaluate glacier dynamics. Here we use a new suite of DEMs (digital elevation models) to estimate geodetic mass balance for over 1000 Himalayan glaciers spanning a 2000 km transect, during the years 1975-2000 and 2001-2016. Recent advances in DEM extraction from declassified Hexagon filmstrips, along with new public access to the global ASTER database have allowed for this large-scale analysis of regional ice loss. An average trendline (using a 30-glacier moving-window) reveals a spatially coherent ice loss signal across the entire transect during both periods, consistent with atmospheric warming as the primary Himalaya-wide driver of change. Our estimate of mean annual ice losses during the more recent period is approximately twice as negative (-0.39 ± 0.1 m.w.e. a-1) compared to the 1975-2000 baseline (-0.18 ± 0.1 m.w.e. a-1). This two-fold acceleration of ice loss during the 21st century agrees with the global average, parallel with recent observations of increasing rates of sea level rise. These surface-integrated geodetic mass balances are negligibly influenced by ice flow dynamics, thus are indicative of climate-driven glacier responses. Further analyses utilizing satellite-derived ice surface velocities will afford deconvolution of the surface mass balance and ice fluxes, providing additional insights into the dynamic responses of the glaciers.

The effect of sugar and processed food imports on the prevalence of overweight and obesity in 172 countries.

PubMed

Lin, Tracy Kuo; Teymourian, Yasmin; Tursini, Maitri Shila

2018-04-14

Studies find that economic, political, and social globalization - as well as trade liberalization specifically - influence the prevalence of overweight and obesity in countries through increasing the availability and affordability of unhealthful food. However, what are the mechanisms that connect globalization, trade liberalization, and rising average body mass index (BMI)? We suggest that the various sub-components of globalization interact, leading individuals in countries that experience higher levels of globalization to prefer, import, and consume more imported sugar and processed food products than individuals in countries that experience lower levels of globalization. This study codes the amount of sugar and processed food imports in 172 countries from 1995 to 2010 using the United Nations Comtrade dataset. We employ country-specific fixed effects (FE) models, with robust standard errors, to examine the relationship between sugar and processed foods imports, globalization, and average BMI. To highlight further the relationship between the sugar and processed food import and average BMI, we employ a synthetic control method to calculate a counterfactual average BMI in Fiji. We find that sugar and processed food imports are part of the explanation to increasing average BMI in countries; after controlling for globalization and general imports and exports, sugar and processed food imports have a statistically and substantively significant effect in increasing average BMI. In the case of Fiji, the increased prevalence of obesity is associated with trade agreements and increased imports of sugar and processed food. The counterfactual estimates suggest that sugar and processed food imports are associated with a 0.5 increase in average BMI in Fiji.

Factors Controlling Summertime Surface Ozone In The Western U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Mei

In this dissertation we investigate different factors controlling summertime surface ozone (O3) in the western U.S., including the impacts from increased wildfire emissions, the modulation by North American summer monsoon as well as long-range transport of O3 and its precursors from outside of North America. We first analyze the surface ozone observations from the Clean Air Status and Trend Network (CASTNet) using a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to investigate the impact of biomass burning on surface O3 in the western U.S. (WUS) mountain ranges during the June--October fire season of 2007, one of the stronger fire years in the WUS in the past decade. GEOS-Chem O3 captures the observed seasonal, synoptic and daily variations. Model daily afternoon average surface O3 concentrations at the CASTNet sites are within 2 ppb of the observations, with correlation coefficients of 0.51--0.83 and Taylor scores of 0.64--0.92. Observed maximum daily 8-hour (MAD8) surface O3 concentrations are 37--8 ppb at the sites, while the corresponding model results are higher by 6 ppb on average. Model results show July--September maximum surface O3 enhancement of ~9 ppb on average because of biomass burning. Peaks in fire-contributed surface O3 correspond broadly with high levels of potassium (K), reaffirming a strong fire influence. We find a policy relevant background (PRB) O3 of 45.6 ppb on average during July--September. Fire-contributed O3 accounts for up to 30% of the PRB O3, highest in the intense fire region (Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming) with maxima in August and September. We also examine an unexpected summertime surface O3 minimum (~30--5 ppb) in July--August 2007 observed throughout the Southwestern U.S. (SWUS) by interpreting observations of O3 and rainfall from the Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNet) with a global chemical transport model. The O3 minimum reflects competing chemical and dynamic factors as well as anthropogenic and natural influences. Its reoccurrence annually in 2000--11 corresponds to the seasonal rainfall maximum during the North American summer monsoon (NASM) (negative O3 and positive rainfall anomalies at the CASTNet sites, (r = -0.5 to -0.7, p < 0.05). Relative to June 15--July 15, 2007 (pre-onset of the NASM), increased cloudiness in July 15--August 15 (post-onset) weakens photochemistry, reduces O3 production from anthropogenic emissions, thereby depresses O3 throughout the lower troposphere and at the surface (-5 ppb at Chiricahua, AZ and -3 ppb on average across the SWUS). The resulting changes are largest at rainfall maxima, particularly in the core of the Great Plains low-level jet. Enhanced lightning NOx emissions post-onset augments O3 production in the middle troposphere followed by downward mixing in convective downdrafts, thereby increases O3 significantly throughout the tropospheric column and non-negligibly at the surface (+2 ppb at Chiricahua and +1 ppb averaged over the SWUS). The resulting DeltaO 3 changes is largest (+8 ppb) in the middle troposphere in the anti-cyclonic circulation associated with the reoccurring summertime high over the Southern U.S. Weaker photochemistry post-onset dominates the overall DeltaO 3 change near the surface, while enhanced lightning dominates in much of the free troposphere. Additionally, we find that transport leads to a net export of O3 throughout the tropospheric column and the influence from stratospheric intrusion is vanishingly small. These competing effects suppress O3 in the lower troposphere (DeltaO3 change up to -5 ppb) while enhance O3 at higher altitudes (DeltaO 3 change up to +7 ppb) across the SWUS during the monsoon. Better understanding of these effects is critical to estimate present and predict future background O3 in the U.S. Southwest as the NASM changes under a changing climate. Lastly we use the GEOS-Chem 3-D global tropospheric chemical transport model and its adjoint to quantify the source contributions to O3 pollution observed at Mt. Bachelor Observatory (MBO) during the summer of 2008. We found that MBO experienced distinct O3 pollution episodes from Siberia wildfire emissions. We also used the adjoint of GEOS-Chem to show the model O3 at MBO is largely sensitive to NOx emissions from biomass burning sources in Siberia and northern California, lightning sources over southwestern U.S. and Mexico, and anthropogenic sources in western U.S. and eastern Asia. For the CO emissions, the largest O 3 sensitivity is to the biomass burning sources in northern California and Siberia. The peak sensitivity to biomass burning CO emissions is comparable to the peak O3 sensitivity to anthropogenic NOx emissions. (Abstract shortened by UMI.).

Projection of actual evapotranspiration using the COSMO-CLM regional climate model under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C in the Tarim River basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Buda; Jian, Dongnan; Li, Xiucang; Wang, Yanjun; Wang, Anqian; Wen, Shanshan; Tao, Hui; Hartmann, Heike

2017-11-01

Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is an important component of the water cycle. The goals for limiting global warming to below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and aspiring to 1.5 °C were negotiated in the Paris Agreement in 2015. In this study, outputs from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) for the Tarim River basin (TRB) were used to calculate ETa with an advection-aridity model, and changes in ETa under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C (2020 to 2039) and 2.0 °C (2040 to 2059) were analyzed. Comparison of warming at the global and regional scale showed that regional 1.5 °C warming would occur later than the global average, while regional 2.0 °C warming would occur earlier than the global average. For global warming of 1.5 °C, the average ETa in the TRB is about 222.7 mm annually, which represents an increase of 6.9 mm relative to the reference period (1986-2005), with obvious increases projected for spring and summer. The greatest increases in ETa were projected for the northeast and southwest. The increment in the annual ETa across the TRB considering a warming of 1.5 °C was 4.3 mm less than that for a warming of 2.0 °C, and the reduction between the two levels of warming was most pronounced in the summer, when ETa was 3.4 mm smaller. The reduction in the increment of annual ETa for warming of 1.5 °C relative to warming of 2.0 °C was most pronounced in the southwest and northeast, where it was projected to be 8.2 mm and 9.3 mm smaller, respectively. It is suggested that the higher ETa under a warming of 2.0 °C mainly results from an increase in the sunshine duration (net radiation) in the southwestern basin and an increase in precipitation in the northeastern basin. Vapor is removed from the limited surface water supplies by ETa. The results of this study are therefore particularly relevant for water resource planning in the TRB.

Data-based estimates of the ocean carbon sink variability - first results of the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rödenbeck, C.; Bakker, D. C. E.; Gruber, N.; Iida, Y.; Jacobson, A. R.; Jones, S.; Landschützer, P.; Metzl, N.; Nakaoka, S.; Olsen, A.; Park, G.-H.; Peylin, P.; Rodgers, K. B.; Sasse, T. P.; Schuster, U.; Shutler, J. D.; Valsala, V.; Wanninkhof, R.; Zeng, J.

2015-08-01

Using measurements of the surface-ocean CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) and 14 different pCO2 mapping methods recently collated by the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM) initiative, variations in regional and global sea-air CO2 fluxes have been investigated. Though the available mapping methods use widely different approaches, we find relatively consistent estimates of regional pCO2 seasonality, in line with previous estimates. In terms of interannual variability (IAV), all mapping methods estimate the largest variations to occur in the Eastern equatorial Pacific. Despite considerable spead in the detailed variations, mapping methods with closer match to the data also tend to be more consistent with each other. Encouragingly, this includes mapping methods belonging to complementary types - taking variability either directly from the pCO2 data or indirectly from driver data via regression. From a weighted ensemble average, we find an IAV amplitude of the global sea-air CO2 flux of 0.31 PgC yr-1 (standard deviation over 1992-2009), which is larger than simulated by biogeochemical process models. On a decadal perspective, the global CO2 uptake is estimated to have gradually increased since about 2000, with little decadal change prior to 2000. The weighted mean total ocean CO2 sink estimated by the SOCOM ensemble is consistent within uncertainties with estimates from ocean-interior carbon data or atmospheric oxygen trends.

Water, Energy, and Carbon with Artificial Neural Networks (WECANN): A statistically-based estimate of global surface turbulent fluxes and gross primary productivity using solar-induced fluorescence.

PubMed

Alemohammad, Seyed Hamed; Fang, Bin; Konings, Alexandra G; Aires, Filipe; Green, Julia K; Kolassa, Jana; Miralles, Diego; Prigent, Catherine; Gentine, Pierre

2017-01-01

A new global estimate of surface turbulent fluxes, latent heat flux (LE) and sensible heat flux (H), and gross primary production (GPP) is developed using a machine learning approach informed by novel remotely sensed Solar-Induced Fluorescence (SIF) and other radiative and meteorological variables. This is the first study to jointly retrieve LE, H and GPP using SIF observations. The approach uses an artificial neural network (ANN) with a target dataset generated from three independent data sources, weighted based on triple collocation (TC) algorithm. The new retrieval, named Water, Energy, and Carbon with Artificial Neural Networks (WECANN), provides estimates of LE, H and GPP from 2007 to 2015 at 1° × 1° spatial resolution and on monthly time resolution. The quality of ANN training is assessed using the target data, and the WECANN retrievals are evaluated using eddy covariance tower estimates from FLUXNET network across various climates and conditions. When compared to eddy covariance estimates, WECANN typically outperforms other products, particularly for sensible and latent heat fluxes. Analysing WECANN retrievals across three extreme drought and heatwave events demonstrates the capability of the retrievals in capturing the extent of these events. Uncertainty estimates of the retrievals are analysed and the inter-annual variability in average global and regional fluxes show the impact of distinct climatic events - such as the 2015 El Niño - on surface turbulent fluxes and GPP.

Water, Energy, and Carbon with Artificial Neural Networks (WECANN): a statistically based estimate of global surface turbulent fluxes and gross primary productivity using solar-induced fluorescence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamed Alemohammad, Seyed; Fang, Bin; Konings, Alexandra G.; Aires, Filipe; Green, Julia K.; Kolassa, Jana; Miralles, Diego; Prigent, Catherine; Gentine, Pierre

2017-09-01

A new global estimate of surface turbulent fluxes, latent heat flux (LE) and sensible heat flux (H), and gross primary production (GPP) is developed using a machine learning approach informed by novel remotely sensed solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) and other radiative and meteorological variables. This is the first study to jointly retrieve LE, H, and GPP using SIF observations. The approach uses an artificial neural network (ANN) with a target dataset generated from three independent data sources, weighted based on a triple collocation (TC) algorithm. The new retrieval, named Water, Energy, and Carbon with Artificial Neural Networks (WECANN), provides estimates of LE, H, and GPP from 2007 to 2015 at 1° × 1° spatial resolution and at monthly time resolution. The quality of ANN training is assessed using the target data, and the WECANN retrievals are evaluated using eddy covariance tower estimates from the FLUXNET network across various climates and conditions. When compared to eddy covariance estimates, WECANN typically outperforms other products, particularly for sensible and latent heat fluxes. Analyzing WECANN retrievals across three extreme drought and heat wave events demonstrates the capability of the retrievals to capture the extent of these events. Uncertainty estimates of the retrievals are analyzed and the interannual variability in average global and regional fluxes shows the impact of distinct climatic events - such as the 2015 El Niño - on surface turbulent fluxes and GPP.

Transient climate and ambient health impacts due to national solid fuel cookstove emissions

PubMed Central

Lacey, Forrest G.; Henze, Daven K.; Lee, Colin J.; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Martin, Randall V.

2017-01-01

Residential solid fuel use contributes to degraded indoor and ambient air quality and may affect global surface temperature. However, the potential for national-scale cookstove intervention programs to mitigate the latter issues is not yet well known, owing to the spatial heterogeneity of aerosol emissions and impacts, along with coemitted species. Here we use a combination of atmospheric modeling, remote sensing, and adjoint sensitivity analysis to individually evaluate consequences of a 20-y linear phase-out of cookstove emissions in each country with greater than 5% of the population using solid fuel for cooking. Emissions reductions in China, India, and Ethiopia contribute to the largest global surface temperature change in 2050 [combined impact of −37 mK (11 mK to −85 mK)], whereas interventions in countries less commonly targeted for cookstove mitigation such as Azerbaijan, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan have the largest per cookstove climate benefits. Abatement in China, India, and Bangladesh contributes to the largest reduction of premature deaths from ambient air pollution, preventing 198,000 (102,000–204,000) of the 260,000 (137,000–268,000) global annual avoided deaths in 2050, whereas again emissions in Ukraine and Azerbaijan have the largest per cookstove impacts, along with Romania. Global cookstove emissions abatement results in an average surface temperature cooling of −77 mK (20 mK to −278 mK) in 2050, which increases to −118 mK (−11 mK to −335 mK) by 2100 due to delayed CO2 response. Health impacts owing to changes in ambient particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less (PM2.5) amount to ∼22.5 million premature deaths prevented between 2000 and 2100. PMID:28115698

Global Regolith Thermophysical Properties of the Moon From the Diviner Lunar Radiometer Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayne, Paul O.; Bandfield, Joshua L.; Siegler, Matthew A.; Vasavada, Ashwin R.; Ghent, Rebecca R.; Williams, Jean-Pierre; Greenhagen, Benjamin T.; Aharonson, Oded; Elder, Catherine M.; Lucey, Paul G.; Paige, David A.

2017-12-01

We used infrared data from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Diviner Lunar Radiometer Experiment to globally map thermophysical properties of the Moon's regolith fines layer. Thermal conductivity varies from 7.4 × 10-4 W m-1 K-1 at the surface to 3.4 × 10-3 W m-1 K-1 at depths of 1 m, given density values of 1,100 kg m-3 at the surface to 1,800 kg m-3 at 1 m depth. On average, the scale height of these profiles is 7 cm, corresponding to a thermal inertia of 55 ± 2 J m-2 K-1 s-1/2 at 273 K, relevant to the diurnally active near-surface layer, 4-7 cm. The temperature dependence of thermal conductivity and heat capacity leads to an 2 times diurnal variation in thermal inertia at the equator. On global scales, the regolith fines are remarkably uniform, implying rapid homogenization by impact gardening of this layer on timescales <1 Gyr. Regional- and local-scale variations show prominent impact features <1 Gyr old, including higher thermal inertia (> 100 J m-2 K-1 s-1/2) in the interiors and ejecta of Copernican-aged impact craters and lower thermal inertia (< 50 J m-2 K-1 s-1/2) within the lunar cold spots identified by Bandfield et al. (2014). Observed trends in ejecta thermal inertia provide a potential tool for age dating craters of previously unknown age, complementary to the approach suggested by Ghent et al. (2014). Several anomalous regions are identified in the global 128 pixels per degree maps presented here, including a high-thermal inertia deposit near the antipode of Tycho crater.

Global Evolution of an Accretion Disk with a Net Vertical Field: Coronal Accretion, Flux Transport, and Disk Winds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Zhaohuan; Stone, James M.

2018-04-01

We report results from global ideal MHD simulations that study thin accretion disks (with thermal scale height H/R = 0.1 and 0.05) threaded by net vertical magnetic fields. Our computations span three orders of magnitude in radius, extend all the way to the pole, and are evolved for more than 1000 innermost orbits. We find that (1) inward accretion occurs mostly in the upper magnetically dominated regions of the disk at z ∼ R, similar to predictions from some previous analytical work and the “coronal accretion” flows found in GRMHD simulations. (2) A quasi-static global field geometry is established in which flux transport by inflows at the surface is balanced by turbulent diffusion. The resulting field is strongly pinched inwards at the surface. A steady-state advection–diffusion model, with a turbulent magnetic Prandtl number of order unity, reproduces this geometry well. (3) Weak unsteady disk winds are launched beyond the disk corona with the Alfvén radius R A /R 0 ∼ 3. Although the surface inflow is filamentary and the wind is episodic, we show that the time-averaged properties are well-described by steady-wind theory. Even with strong fields, β 0 = 103 at the midplane initially, only 5% of the angular momentum transport is driven by the wind, and the wind mass flux from the inner decade of the radius is only ∼0.4% of the mass accretion rate. (4) Within the disk, most of the accretion is driven by the Rϕ stress from the MRI and global magnetic fields. Our simulations have many applications to astrophysical accretion systems.

Coccolithophorid blooms in the global ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Christopher W.; Yoder, James A.

1994-01-01

The global distribution pattern of coccolithophrid blooms was mapped in order to ascertain the prevalence of these blooms in the world's oceans and to estimate their worldwide production of CaCO3 and dimethyl sulfide (DMS). Mapping was accomplished by classifying pixels of 5-day global composites of coastal zone color scanner imagery into bloom and nonbloom classes using a supervised, multispectral classification scheme. Surface waters with the spectral signature of coccolithophorid blooms annually covered an average of 1.4 x 10(exp 6) sq km in the world oceans from 1979 to 1985, with the subpolar latitudes accounting for 71% of this surface area. Classified blooms were most extensive in the Subartic North Atlantic. Large expanses of the bloom signal were also detected in the North Pacific, on the Argentine shelf and slope, and in numerous lower latitude marginal seas and shelf regions. The greatest spatial extent of classified blooms in subpolar oceanic regions occurred in the months from summer to early autumn, while those in lower latitude marginal seas occurred in midwinter to early spring. Though the classification scheme was effcient in separating bloom and nonbloom classes during test simulations, and biogeographical literature generally confirms the resulting distribution pattern of blooms in the subpolar regions, the cause of the bloom signal is equivocal in some geographic areas, particularly on shelf regions at lower latitudes. Standing stock estimates suggest that the presumed Emiliania huxleyi blooms act as a significant source of calcite carbon and DMS sulfur on a regional scale. On a global scale, however, the satellite-detected coccolithophorid blooms are estimated to play only a minor role in the annual production of these two compounds and their flux from the surface mixed layer.

Near Global Mosaic of Mercury

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, K. J.; Robinson, M. S.; Becker, T. L.; Weller, L. A.; Turner, S.; Nguyen, L.; Selby, C.; Denevi, B. W.; Murchie, S. L.; McNutt, R. L.; Solomon, S. C.

2009-12-01

In 2008 the MESSENGER spacecraft made two close flybys (M1 and M2) of Mercury and imaged about 74% of the planet at a resolution of 1 km per pixel, and at higher resolution for smaller portions of the planet. The Mariner 10 spacecraft imaged about 42% of Mercury’s surface more than 30 years ago. Combining image data collected by the two missions yields coverage of about 83% of Mercury’s surface. MESSENGER will perform its third and final flyby of Mercury (M3) on 29 September 2009. This will yield approximately 86% coverage of Mercury, leaving only the north and south polar regions yet to be imaged by MESSENGER after orbit insertion in March 2011. A new global mosaic of Mercury was constructed using 325 images containing 3566 control points (8110 measures) from M1 and 225 images containing 1465 control points (3506 measures) from M2. The M3 flyby is shifted in subsolar longitude only by 4° from M2, so the added coverage is very small. However, this small slice of Mercury fills a gore in the mosaic between the M1 and M2 data and allows a complete cartographic tie around the equator. We will run a new bundle block adjustment with the additional images acquired from M3. This new edition of the MESSENGER Mercury Dual Imaging System (MDIS) Narrow Angle Camera (NAC) global mosaic of Mercury includes many improvements since the M2 flyby in October 2008. A new distortion model for the NAC camera greatly improves the image-to-image registration. Optical distortion correction is independent of pointing error correction, and both are required for a mosaic of high quality. The new distortion model alone reduced residual pointing errors for both flybys significantly; residual pixel error improved from 0.71 average (3.7 max) to 0.13 average (1.7 max) for M1 and from 0.72 average (4.8 max.) to 0.17 average (3.5 max) for M2. Analysis quantifying pivot motor position has led to development of a new model that improves accuracy of the pivot platform attitude. This model improves the accuracy of pointing knowledge and reduces overall registration errors between adjacent images. The net effect of these improvements is an overall offset of up to 10 km in some locations across the mosaic. In addition, the radiometric calibration process for the NAC has been improved to yield a better dynamic range across the mosaic by 20%. The new global mosaic of Mercury will be used in scientific analysis and aid in planning observation sequences leading up to and including orbit insertion of the MESSENGER spacecraft in 2011.

Interbasin effects of the Indian Ocean on Pacific decadal climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mochizuki, Takashi; Kimoto, Masahide; Watanabe, Masahiro; Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Ishii, Masayoshi

2016-07-01

We demonstrate the significant impact of the Indian Ocean on the Pacific climate on decadal timescales by comparing two sets of data assimilation experiments (pacemaker experiments) conducted over recent decades. For the Indian Ocean of an atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate model, we assimilate ocean temperature and salinity anomalies defined as deviations from climatology or as anomalies with the area-averaged changes for the Indian Ocean subtracted. When decadal sea surface temperature (SST) trends are observed to be strong over the Indian Ocean, the equatorial thermocline uniformly deepens, and the model simulates the eastward tendencies of surface wind aloft. Surface winds strongly converge around the maritime continent, and the associated strengthening of the Walker circulation suppresses an increasing trend in the equatorial Pacific SST through ocean thermocline shoaling, similar to common changes associated with seasonal Indian Ocean warming.

Short-term climatic fluctuations forced by thermal anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hanna, A. F.

1982-01-01

A two level, global, spectral model using pressure as a vertical coordinate was developed. The system of equations describing the model is nonlinear and quasi-geostrophic (linear balance). Static stability is variable in the model. A moisture budget is calculated in the lower layer only. Convective adjustment is used to avoid supercritical temperature lapse rates. The mechanical forcing of topography is introduced as a vertical velocity at the lower boundary. Solar forcing is specified assuming a daily mean zenith angle. The differential diabatic heating between land and sea is paramterized. On land and sea ice surfaces, a steady state thermal energy equation is solved to calculate the surface temperature. On the oceans, the sea surface temperature is specified as the climatological average for January. The model is used to simulate the January, February and March circulations.

Imaging domain walls between nematic quantum Hall phases on the surface of bismuth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Hao; Randeria, Mallika T.; Feldman, Benjamin E.; Ji, Huiwen; Cava, Robert J.; Yazdani, Ali

The sensitivity of nematic electronic phases to disorder results in short range ordering and the formation of domains. Local probes are required to investigate the character of these domains and the boundaries between them, which remain hidden in global measurements that average over microscopic configurations. In this talk, I will describe measurements performed with a scanning tunneling microscope to study local nematic order on the surface of bismuth at high magnetic field. By imaging individual anisotropic cyclotron orbit wavefunctions that are pinned to atomic-scale surface defects, we directly resolve local nematic behavior and study the evolution of nematic states across a domain wall. Through spectroscopic mapping, we explore how the broken-symmetry Landau levels disperse across the domain wall, the influence of exchange interactions at such a boundary, and the formation of one-dimensional edge states.

Forming Ganymede's grooves at smaller strain: Toward a self-consistent local and global strain history for Ganymede

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bland, Michael T.; McKinnon, William B.

2015-01-01

The ubiquity of tectonic features formed in extension, and the apparent absence of ones formed in contraction, has led to the hypothesis that Ganymede has undergone global expansion in its past. Determining the magnitude of such expansion is challenging however, and extrapolation of locally or regionally inferred strains to global scales often results in strain estimates that exceed those based on global constraints. Here we use numerical simulations of groove terrain formation to develop a strain history for Ganymede that is generally consistent at local, regional, and global scales. These simulations reproduce groove-like amplitudes, wavelengths, and average slopes at modest regional extensions (10-15%). The modest strains are more consistent with global constraints on Ganymede's expansion. Yet locally, we also find that surface strains can be much larger (30-60%) in the same simulations, consistent with observations of highly-extended impact craters. Thus our simulations satisfy both the smallest-scale and largest-scale inferences of strain on Ganymede. The growth rate of the topography is consistent with (or exceeds) predictions of analytical models, and results from the use of a non-associated plastic rheology that naturally permits localization of brittle failure (plastic strain) into linear fault-like shear zones. These fault-like zones are organized into periodically-spaced graben-like structures with stepped, steeply-dipping faults. As in previous work, groove amplitudes and wavelengths depend on both the imposed heat flux and surface temperature, but because our brittle strength increases with depth, we find (for the parameters explored) that the growth rate of topography is initially faster for lower heat flows. We observe a transition to narrow rifting for higher heat flows and larger strains, which is a potential pathway for breakaway margin or band formation.

Forming Ganymede’s grooves at smaller strain: Toward a self-consistent local and global strain history for Ganymede

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bland, Michael T.; McKinnon, W. B.

2015-01-01

The ubiquity of tectonic features formed in extension, and the apparent absence of ones formed in contraction, has led to the hypothesis that Ganymede has undergone global expansion in its past. Determining the magnitude of such expansion is challenging however, and extrapolation of locally or regionally inferred strains to global scales often results in strain estimates that exceed those based on global constraints. Here we use numerical simulations of groove terrain formation to develop a strain history for Ganymede that is generally consistent at local, regional, and global scales. These simulations reproduce groove-like amplitudes, wavelengths, and average slopes at modest regional extensions (10–15%). The modest strains are more consistent with global constraints on Ganymede’s expansion. Yet locally, we also find that surface strains can be much larger (30–60%) in the same simulations, consistent with observations of highly-extended impact craters. Thus our simulations satisfy both the smallest-scale and largest-scale inferences of strain on Ganymede. The growth rate of the topography is consistent with (or exceeds) predictions of analytical models, and results from the use of a non-associated plastic rheology that naturally permits localization of brittle failure (plastic strain) into linear fault-like shear zones. These fault-like zones are organized into periodically-spaced graben-like structures with stepped, steeply-dipping faults. As in previous work, groove amplitudes and wavelengths depend on both the imposed heat flux and surface temperature, but because our brittle strength increases with depth, we find (for the parameters explored) that the growth rate of topography is initially faster for lower heat flows. We observe a transition to narrow rifting for higher heat flows and larger strains, which is a potential pathway for breakaway margin or band formation.

Characteristics of Nitrogen Loss through Surface-Subsurface Flow on Red Soil Slopes of Southeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Haijin; Liu, Zhao; Zuo, Jichao; Wang, Lingyun; Nie, Xiaofei

2017-12-01

Soil nitrogen (N) loss related to surface flow and subsurface flow (including interflow and groundwater flow) from slope lands is a global issue. A lysimetric experiment with three types of land cover (grass cover, GC; litter cover, LC; and bare land, BL) were carried out on a red soil slope land in southeast China. Total Nitrogen (TN) loss through surface flow, interflow and groundwater flow was observed under 28 natural precipitation events from 2015 to 2016. TN concentrations from subsurface flow on BL and LC plots were, on average, 2.7-8.2 and 1.5-4.4 times greater than TN concentrations from surface flow, respectively; the average concentration of TN from subsurface flow on GC was about 36-56% of that recorded from surface flow. Surface flow, interflow and groundwater flow contributed 0-15, 2-9 and 76-96%, respectively, of loss load of TN. Compared with BL, GC and LC intercepted 83-86% of TN loss through surface runoff; GC intercepted 95% of TN loss through subsurface flow while TN loss through subsurface flow on LC is 2.3 times larger than that on BL. In conclusion, subsurface flow especially groundwater flow is the dominant hydrological rout for N loss that is usually underestimated. Grass cover has the high retention of N runoff loss while litter mulch will increase N leaching loss. These findings provide scientific support to control N runoff loss from the red soil slope lands by using suitable vegetation cover and mulching techniques.

Projected near-future levels of temperature and pCO2 reduce coral fertilization success.

PubMed

Albright, Rebecca; Mason, Benjamin

2013-01-01

Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) are projected to contribute to a 1.1-6.4°C rise in global average surface temperatures and a 0.14-0.35 reduction in the average pH of the global surface ocean by 2100. If realized, these changes are expected to have negative consequences for reef-building corals including increased frequency and severity of coral bleaching and reduced rates of calcification and reef accretion. Much less is known regarding the independent and combined effects of temperature and pCO2 on critical early life history processes such as fertilization. Here we show that increases in temperature (+3°C) and pCO2 (+400 µatm) projected for this century negatively impact fertilization success of a common Indo-Pacific coral species, Acropora tenuis. While maximum fertilization did not differ among treatments, the sperm concentration required to obtain 50% of maximum fertilization increased 6- to 8- fold with the addition of a single factor (temperature or CO2) and nearly 50- fold when both factors interact. Our results indicate that near-future changes in temperature and pCO2 narrow the range of sperm concentrations that are capable of yielding high fertilization success in A. tenuis. Increased sperm limitation, in conjunction with adult population decline, may have severe consequences for coral reproductive success. Impaired sexual reproduction will further challenge corals by inhibiting population recovery and adaptation potential.

Projected Near-Future Levels of Temperature and pCO2 Reduce Coral Fertilization Success

PubMed Central

Albright, Rebecca; Mason, Benjamin

2013-01-01

Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) are projected to contribute to a 1.1–6.4°C rise in global average surface temperatures and a 0.14–0.35 reduction in the average pH of the global surface ocean by 2100. If realized, these changes are expected to have negative consequences for reef-building corals including increased frequency and severity of coral bleaching and reduced rates of calcification and reef accretion. Much less is known regarding the independent and combined effects of temperature and pCO2 on critical early life history processes such as fertilization. Here we show that increases in temperature (+3°C) and pCO2 (+400 µatm) projected for this century negatively impact fertilization success of a common Indo-Pacific coral species, Acropora tenuis. While maximum fertilization did not differ among treatments, the sperm concentration required to obtain 50% of maximum fertilization increased 6- to 8- fold with the addition of a single factor (temperature or CO2) and nearly 50- fold when both factors interact. Our results indicate that near-future changes in temperature and pCO2 narrow the range of sperm concentrations that are capable of yielding high fertilization success in A. tenuis. Increased sperm limitation, in conjunction with adult population decline, may have severe consequences for coral reproductive success. Impaired sexual reproduction will further challenge corals by inhibiting population recovery and adaptation potential. PMID:23457572

Navier-Stokes Computations of a Wing-Flap Model With Blowing Normal to the Flap Surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyd, D. Douglas, Jr.

2005-01-01

A computational study of a generic wing with a half span flap shows the mean flow effects of several blown flap configurations. The effort compares and contrasts the thin-layer, Reynolds averaged, Navier-Stokes solutions of a baseline wing-flap configuration with configurations that have blowing normal to the flap surface through small slits near the flap side edge. Vorticity contours reveal a dual vortex structure at the flap side edge for all cases. The dual vortex merges into a single vortex at approximately the mid-flap chord location. Upper surface blowing reduces the strength of the merged vortex and moves the vortex away from the upper edge. Lower surface blowing thickens the lower shear layer and weakens the merged vortex, but not as much as upper surface blowing. Side surface blowing forces the lower surface vortex farther outboard of the flap edge by effectively increasing the aerodynamic span of the flap. It is seen that there is no global aerodynamic penalty or benefit from the particular blowing configurations examined.

Mass balance, meteorology, area altitude distribution, glacier-surface altitude, ice motion, terminus position, and runoff at Gulkana Glacier, Alaska, 1996 balance year

USGS Publications Warehouse

March, Rod S.

2003-01-01

The 1996 measured winter snow, maximum winter snow, net, and annual balances in the Gulkana Glacier Basin were evaluated on the basis of meteorological, hydrological, and glaciological data. Averaged over the glacier, the measured winter snow balance was 0.87 meter on April 18, 1996, 1.1 standard deviation below the long-term average; the maximum winter snow balance, 1.06 meters, was reached on May 28, 1996; and the net balance (from August 30, 1995, to August 24, 1996) was -0.53 meter, 0.53 standard deviation below the long-term average. The annual balance (October 1, 1995, to September 30, 1996) was -0.37 meter. Area-averaged balances were reported using both the 1967 and 1993 area altitude distributions (the numbers previously given in this abstract use the 1993 area altitude distribution). Net balance was about 25 percent less negative using the 1993 area altitude distribution than the 1967 distribution. Annual average air temperature was 0.9 degree Celsius warmer than that recorded with the analog sensor used since 1966. Total precipitation catch for the year was 0.78 meter, 0.8 standard deviations below normal. The annual average wind speed was 3.5 meters per second in the first year of measuring wind speed. Annual runoff averaged 1.50 meters over the basin, 1.0 standard deviation below the long-term average. Glacier-surface altitude and ice-motion changes measured at three index sites document seasonal ice-speed and glacier-thickness changes. Both showed a continuation of a slowing and thinning trend present in the 1990s. The glacier terminus and lower ablation area were defined for 1996 with a handheld Global Positioning System survey of 126 locations spread out over about 4 kilometers on the lower glacier margin. From 1949 to 1996, the terminus retreated about 1,650 meters for an average retreat rate of 35 meters per year.

Land surface dynamics monitoring using microwave passive satellite sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guijarro, Lizbeth Noemi

Soil moisture, surface temperature and vegetation are variables that play an important role in our environment. There is growing demand for accurate estimation of these geophysical parameters for the research of global climate models (GCMs), weather, hydrological and flooding models, and for the application to agricultural assessment, land cover change, and a wide variety of other uses that meet the needs for the study of our environment. The different studies covered in this dissertation evaluate the capabilities and limitations of microwave passive sensors to monitor land surface dynamics. The first study evaluates the 19 GHz channel of the SSM/I instrument with a radiative transfer model and in situ datasets from the Illinois stations and the Oklahoma Mesonet to retrieve land surface temperature and surface soil moisture. The surface temperatures were retrieved with an average error of 5 K and the soil moisture with an average error of 6%. The results show that the 19 GHz channel can be used to qualitatively predict the spatial and temporal variability of surface soil moisture and surface temperature at regional scales. In the second study, in situ observations were compared with sensor observations to evaluate aspects of low and high spatial resolution at multiple frequencies with data collected from the Southern Great Plains Experiment (SGP99). The results showed that the sensitivity to soil moisture at each frequency is a function of wavelength and amount of vegetation. The results confirmed that L-band is more optimal for soil moisture, but each sensor can provide soil moisture information if the vegetation water content is low. The spatial variability of the emissivities reveals that resolution suffers considerably at higher frequencies. The third study evaluates C- and X-bands of the AMSR-E instrument. In situ datasets from the Soil Moisture Experiments (SMEX03) in South Central Georgia were utilized to validate the AMSR-E soil moisture product and to derive surface soil moisture with a radiative transfer model. The soil moisture was retrieved with an average error of 2.7% at X-band and 6.7% at C-band. The AMSR-E demonstrated its ability to successfully infer soil moisture during the SMEX03 experiment.

Assessing the influence of watershed characteristics on chlorophyll a in waterbodies at global and regional scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woelmer, Whitney; Kao, Yu-Chun; Bunnell, David B.; Deines, Andrew M.; Bennion, David; Rogers, Mark W.; Brooks, Colin N.; Sayers, Michael J.; Banach, David M.; Grimm, Amanda G.; Shuchman, Robert A.

2016-01-01

Prediction of primary production of lentic water bodies (i.e., lakes and reservoirs) is valuable to researchers and resource managers alike, but is very rarely done at the global scale. With the development of remote sensing technologies, it is now feasible to gather large amounts of data across the world, including understudied and remote regions. To determine which factors were most important in explaining the variation of chlorophyll a (Chl-a), an indicator of primary production in water bodies, at global and regional scales, we first developed a geospatial database of 227 water bodies and watersheds with corresponding Chl-a, nutrient, hydrogeomorphic, and climate data. Then we used a generalized additive modeling approach and developed model selection criteria to select models that most parsimoniously related Chl-a to predictor variables for all 227 water bodies and for 51 lakes in the Laurentian Great Lakes region in the data set. Our best global model contained two hydrogeomorphic variables (water body surface area and the ratio of watershed to water body surface area) and a climate variable (average temperature in the warmest model selection criteria to select models that most parsimoniously related Chl-a to predictor variables quarter) and explained ~ 30% of variation in Chl-a. Our regional model contained one hydrogeomorphic variable (flow accumulation) and the same climate variable, but explained substantially more variation (58%). Our results indicate that a regional approach to watershed modeling may be more informative to predicting Chl-a, and that nearly a third of global variability in Chl-a may be explained using hydrogeomorphic and climate variables.

Enhancing SMAP Soil Moisture Retrievals via Superresolution Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beale, K. D.; Ebtehaj, A. M.; Romberg, J. K.; Bras, R. L.

2017-12-01

Soil moisture is a key state variable that modulates land-atmosphere interactions and its high-resolution global scale estimates are essential for improved weather forecasting, drought prediction, crop management, and the safety of troop mobility. Currently, NASA's Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) satellite provides a global picture of soil moisture variability at a resolution of 36 km, which is prohibitive for some hydrologic applications. The goal of this research is to enhance the resolution of SMAP passive microwave retrievals by a factor of 2 to 4 using modern superresolution techniques that rely on the knowledge of high-resolution land surface models. In this work, we explore several super-resolution techniques including an empirical dictionary method, a learned dictionary method, and a three-layer convolutional neural network. Using a year of global high-resolution land surface model simulations as training set, we found that we are able to produce high-resolution soil moisture maps that outperform the original low-resolution observations both qualitatively and quantitatively. In particular, on a patch-by-patch basis we are able to produce estimates of high-resolution soil moisture maps that improve on the original low-resolution patches by on average 6% in terms of mean-squared error, and 14% in terms of the structural similarity index.

Quantifying the causes of differences in tropospheric OH within global models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicely, Julie M.; Salawitch, Ross J.; Canty, Timothy; Anderson, Daniel C.; Arnold, Steve R.; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Emmons, Louisa K.; Flemming, Johannes; Huijnen, Vincent; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Lamarque, Jean-François; Mao, Jingqiu; Monks, Sarah A.; Steenrod, Stephen D.; Tilmes, Simone; Turquety, Solene

2017-02-01

The hydroxyl radical (OH) is the primary daytime oxidant in the troposphere and provides the main loss mechanism for many pollutants and greenhouse gases, including methane (CH4). Global mean tropospheric OH differs by as much as 80% among various global models, for reasons that are not well understood. We use neural networks (NNs), trained using archived output from eight chemical transport models (CTMs) that participated in the Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements and Models, of Climate, Chemistry, Aerosols and Transport Model Intercomparison Project (POLMIP), to quantify the factors responsible for differences in tropospheric OH and resulting CH4 lifetime (τCH4) between these models. Annual average τCH4, for loss by OH only, ranges from 8.0 to 11.6 years for the eight POLMIP CTMs. The factors driving these differences were quantified by inputting 3-D chemical fields from one CTM into the trained NN of another CTM. Across all CTMs, the largest mean differences in τCH4 (ΔτCH4) result from variations in chemical mechanisms (ΔτCH4 = 0.46 years), the photolysis frequency (J) of O3 → O(1D) (0.31 years), local O3 (0.30 years), and CO (0.23 years). The ΔτCH4 due to CTM differences in NOx (NO + NO2) is relatively low (0.17 years), although large regional variation in OH between the CTMs is attributed to NOx. Differences in isoprene and J(NO2) have negligible overall effect on globally averaged tropospheric OH, although the extent of OH variations due to each factor depends on the model being examined. This study demonstrates that NNs can serve as a useful tool for quantifying why tropospheric OH varies between global models, provided that essential chemical fields are archived.

Climate Change: Integrating Science and Economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prinn, R. G.

2008-12-01

The world is facing an ever-growing conflict between environment and development. Climate change is a century-scale threat requiring a century-long effort in science, technology and policy analysis, and institutions that can sustain this effort over generations. To inform policy development and implementation there is urgent need for better integration of the diverse components of the problem. Motivated by this challenge, we have developed the Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) at MIT. It comprises coupled sub- models of economic development, atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics and ecosystems. The results of a recent uncertainty analysis involving hundreds of runs of the IGSM imply that, without mitigation policies, the global average surface temperature may rise much faster than previously estimated. Polar temperatures are projected to rise even faster than the average rate with obvious great risks for high latitude ecosystems and ice sheets at the high end of this range. Analysis of policies for climate mitigation, show that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes as opposed to lowering the medians. Faced with the above estimated impacts, the long lifetimes of most greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the long delay in ultimate warming due to ocean heat uptake, and the capital-intensive global energy infrastructure, the case is strong for concerted action now. Results of runs of the IGSM indicate the need for transformation of the global energy industry on a very large scale to mitigate climate change. Carbon sequestration, renewable energy sources, and nuclear present new economic, technological, and environmental challenges when implemented at the needed scales. Economic analyses using the IGSM indicate that global implementation of efficient policies could allow the needed transformations at bearable costs.

Towards a physical understanding of stratospheric cooling under global warming through a process-based decomposition method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yang; Ren, R.-C.; Cai, Ming

2016-12-01

The stratosphere has been cooling under global warming, the causes of which are not yet well understood. This study applied a process-based decomposition method (CFRAM; Coupled Surface-Atmosphere Climate Feedback Response Analysis Method) to the simulation results of a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) model (CCSM4; Community Climate System Model, version 4), to demonstrate the responsible radiative and non-radiative processes involved in the stratospheric cooling. By focusing on the long-term stratospheric temperature changes between the "historical run" and the 8.5 W m-2 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) scenario, this study demonstrates that the changes of radiative radiation due to CO2, ozone and water vapor are the main divers of stratospheric cooling in both winter and summer. They contribute to the cooling changes by reducing the net radiative energy (mainly downward radiation) received by the stratospheric layer. In terms of the global average, their contributions are around -5, -1.5, and -1 K, respectively. However, the observed stratospheric cooling is much weaker than the cooling by radiative processes. It is because changes in atmospheric dynamic processes act to strongly mitigate the radiative cooling by yielding a roughly 4 K warming on the global average base. In particular, the much stronger/weaker dynamic warming in the northern/southern winter extratropics is associated with an increase of the planetary-wave activity in the northern winter, but a slight decrease in the southern winter hemisphere, under global warming. More importantly, although radiative processes dominate the stratospheric cooling, the spatial patterns are largely determined by the non-radiative effects of dynamic processes.

Distribution and Emission of Methane in Nakdong Estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, J.; An, S.

2014-12-01

Despite a small area, coastal areas contribute most to the oceanic methane flux. A wide range of methane fluxes have been reported in the coastal areas, but limited data were presented for Korean coastal areas. The air and surface water was sampled in Nakdong Estuary where the barrage had been constructed, and methane concentrations were measured using Gas Chromatography. To see the influence of the barrage, surface water was sampled outside and inside the barrage respectively. In the expectation that methane distribution would be different depending on the tides, surface water outside the barrage was collected at high and low tide respectively. Headspace technique and Membrane Inlet Mass Spectrometry were also used. The average atmospheric concentration (1.82ppm) was lower than the global average concentration expected from the IPCC scenario. The concentrations of water inside the barrage (average 173nM) were similar to those measured in other rivers but in the lower side. The average concentrations outside the barrage (52nM at high tide, 85nM at low tide) were lower than those measured in other coastal areas, but of the same order of magnitude as the European tidal estuaries. Methane concentrations in Nakdong estuary were higher than the methane concentration equilibrated with the atmosphere. The spatial variability of methane concentration in Nakdong estuary seems to be the result of the fresh (high methane) and sea (low methane) water mixing. Meanwhile large tidal flat area in Nakdong estuary should play a major role in methane dynamics and methane flux measurements during sediment incubation were conducted to evaluate the immersion/emersion cycle and photosynthesis by MPB (micro phyto benthos) effect.

Distributions and seasonal variations of dissolved carbohydrates in the Jiaozhou Bay, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Gui-Peng; Zhang, Yan-Ping; Lu, Xiao-Lan; Ding, Hai-Bing

2010-06-01

Surface seawater samples were collected in the Jiaozhou Bay, a typical semi-closed basin located at the western part of the Shandong Peninsula, China, during four cruises. Concentrations of monosaccharides (MCHO), polysaccharides (PCHO) and total dissolved carbohydrates (TCHO) were measured with the 2,4,6-tripyridyl- s-triazine spectroscopic method. Concentrations of TCHO varied from 10.8 to 276.1 μM C for all samples and the ratios of TCHO to dissolved organic carbon (DOC) ranged from 1.1 to 67.9% with an average of 10.1%. This result indicated that dissolved carbohydrates were an important constituent of DOC in the surface seawater of the Jiaozhou Bay. In all samples, the concentrations of MCHO ranged from 2.9 to 65.9 μM C, comprising 46.1 ± 16.6% of TCHO on average, while PCHO ranged from 0.3 to 210.2 μM C, comprising 53.9 ± 16.6% of TCHO on average. As a major part of dissolved carbohydrates, the concentrations of PCHO were higher than those of MCHO. MCHO and PCHO accumulated in January and July, with minimum average concentration in April. The seasonal variation in the ratios of TCHO to DOC was related to water temperature, with high values in January and low values in July and October. The concentrations of dissolved carbohydrates displayed a decreasing trend from the coastal to the central areas. Negative correlations between concentrations of TCHO and salinity in July suggested that riverine input around the Jiaozhou Bay had an important effect on the concentrations of dissolved carbohydrates in surface seawater. The pattern of distributions of MCHO and PCHO reported in this study added to the global picture of dissolved carbohydrates distribution.

Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

DOE PAGES

Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; ...

2015-02-24

We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmosphericmore » version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5° C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5° C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO₂, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2-R climate model produces a complete shutdown of deep water formation in the North Atlantic.« less

Analysis of Surface Fluxes at Eureka Climate Observatory in Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grachev, Andrey; Albee, Robert; Fairall, Christopher; Hare, Jeffrey; Persson, Ola; Uttal, Taneil

2010-05-01

The Arctic region is experiencing unprecedented changes associated with increasing average temperatures (faster than the pace of the globally-averaged increase) and significant decreases in both the areal extent and thickness of the Arctic pack ice. These changes are early warning signs of shifts in the global climate system that justifies increased scientific focus on this region. The increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide has raised concerns worldwide about future climate change. Recent studies suggest that huge stores of carbon dioxide (and other climate relevant compounds) locked up in Arctic soils could be unexpectedly released due to global warming. Observational evidence suggests that atmospheric energy fluxes are a major contributor to the decrease of the Arctic pack ice, seasonal land snow cover and the warming of the surrounding land areas and permafrost layers. To better understand the atmosphere-surface exchange mechanisms, improve models, and to diagnose climate variability in the Arctic, accurate measurements are required of all components of the net surface energy budget and the carbon dioxide cycle over representative areas and over multiple years. In this study we analyze variability of turbulent fluxes including water vapor and carbon dioxide transfer based on long-term measurements made at Eureka observatory (80.0 N, 85.9 W) located near the coast of the Arctic Ocean (Canadian territory of Nunavut). Turbulent fluxes and mean meteorological data are continuously measured and reported hourly at various levels on a 10-m flux tower. Sonic anemometers are located at 3 and 8 m heights while high-speed Licor 7500 infrared gas analyzer (water moisture and carbon dioxide measurements) at 7.5 m height. According to our data, that the sensible heat flux, carbon dioxide and water vapor fluxes exhibited clear diurnal cycles in Arctic summer. This behavior is similar to the diurnal variation of the fluxes in mid-latitudes during the plants growing season, with carbon dioxide uptake from the atmosphere during the day due to photosynthesis, and carbon dioxide loss to the atmosphere due to vegetation respiration during the night. However, at Eureka vegetation was a source of carbon dioxide during sunlit periods. Thus the sign of carbon dioxide flux was controlled by air temperature even during Arctic summer.

Global petrologic variations on the moon: a ternary-diagram approach.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, P.A.; Spudis, P.D.

1987-01-01

A ternary-diagram approach for determination of global petrologic variations on the lunar surface is presented that incorporates valuable improvements in our previous method of using geochemical variation diagrams. Our results are as follows: 1) the highlands contain large areas of relatively pure ferroan anorthosite; 2) the average composition of the upper lunar crust is represented by an 'anorthositic gabbro' composition; 3) KREEP/Mg-suite rocks are a minor fraction of the upper lunar crust; 4) within the farside highlands, areas of KREEP/Mg-suite rocks coincide mostly with areas of crustal thinning; 5) portions of the E limb and farside highlands have considerable amounts of a mafic, chondritic Th/Ti component (like mare basalt) whose occurrences coincide with mapped concentrations of light plains that display dark-halo craters.- from Authors

Sensitivity studies for a space-based methane lidar mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiemle, C.; Quatrevalet, M.; Ehret, G.; Amediek, A.; Fix, A.; Wirth, M.

2011-10-01

Methane is the third most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere after water vapour and carbon dioxide. A major handicap to quantify the emissions at the Earth's surface in order to better understand biosphere-atmosphere exchange processes and potential climate feedbacks is the lack of accurate and global observations of methane. Space-based integrated path differential absorption (IPDA) lidar has potential to fill this gap, and a Methane Remote Lidar Mission (MERLIN) on a small satellite in polar orbit was proposed by DLR and CNES in the frame of a German-French climate monitoring initiative. System simulations are used to identify key performance parameters and to find an advantageous instrument configuration, given the environmental, technological, and budget constraints. The sensitivity studies use representative averages of the atmospheric and surface state to estimate the measurement precision, i.e. the random uncertainty due to instrument noise. Key performance parameters for MERLIN are average laser power, telescope size, orbit height, surface reflectance, and detector noise. A modest-size lidar instrument with 0.45 W average laser power and 0.55 m telescope diameter on a 506 km orbit could provide 50-km averaged methane column measurement along the sub-satellite track with a precision of about 1% over vegetation. The use of a methane absorption trough at 1.65 μm improves the near-surface measurement sensitivity and vastly relaxes the wavelength stability requirement that was identified as one of the major technological risks in the pre-phase A studies for A-SCOPE, a space-based IPDA lidar for carbon dioxide at the European Space Agency. Minimal humidity and temperature sensitivity at this wavelength position will enable accurate measurements in tropical wetlands, key regions with largely uncertain methane emissions. In contrast to actual passive remote sensors, measurements in Polar Regions will be possible and biases due to aerosol layers and thin ice clouds will be minimised.

Sensitivity studies for a space-based methane lidar mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiemle, C.; Quatrevalet, M.; Ehret, G.; Amediek, A.; Fix, A.; Wirth, M.

2011-06-01

Methane is the third most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere after water vapour and carbon dioxide. A major handicap to quantify the emissions at the Earth's surface in order to better understand biosphere-atmosphere exchange processes and potential climate feedbacks is the lack of accurate and global observations of methane. Space-based integrated path differential absorption (IPDA) lidar has potential to fill this gap, and a Methane Remote Lidar Mission (MERLIN) on a small satellite in Polar orbit was proposed by DLR and CNES in the frame of a German-French climate monitoring initiative. System simulations are used to identify key performance parameters and to find an advantageous instrument configuration, given the environmental, technological, and budget constraints. The sensitivity studies use representative averages of the atmospheric and surface state to estimate the measurement precision, i.e. the random uncertainty due to instrument noise. Key performance parameters for MERLIN are average laser power, telescope size, orbit height, surface reflectance, and detector noise. A modest-size lidar instrument with 0.45 W average laser power and 0.55 m telescope diameter on a 506 km orbit could provide 50-km averaged methane column measurement along the sub-satellite track with a precision of about 1 % over vegetation. The use of a methane absorption trough at 1.65 μm improves the near-surface measurement sensitivity and vastly relaxes the wavelength stability requirement that was identified as one of the major technological risks in the pre-phase A studies for A-SCOPE, a space-based IPDA lidar for carbon dioxide at the European Space Agency. Minimal humidity and temperature sensitivity at this wavelength position will enable accurate measurements in tropical wetlands, key regions with largely uncertain methane emissions. In contrast to actual passive remote sensors, measurements in Polar Regions will be possible and biases due to aerosol layers and thin ice clouds will be minimised.

GloFAS-Seasonal: Operational Seasonal Ensemble River Flow Forecasts at the Global Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emerton, Rebecca; Zsoter, Ervin; Smith, Paul; Salamon, Peter

2017-04-01

Seasonal hydrological forecasting has potential benefits for many sectors, including agriculture, water resources management and humanitarian aid. At present, no global scale seasonal hydrological forecasting system exists operationally; although smaller scale systems have begun to emerge around the globe over the past decade, a system providing consistent global scale seasonal forecasts would be of great benefit in regions where no other forecasting system exists, and to organisations operating at the global scale, such as disaster relief. We present here a new operational global ensemble seasonal hydrological forecast, currently under development at ECMWF as part of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The proposed system, which builds upon the current version of GloFAS, takes the long-range forecasts from the ECMWF System4 ensemble seasonal forecast system (which incorporates the HTESSEL land surface scheme) and uses this runoff as input to the Lisflood routing model, producing a seasonal river flow forecast out to 4 months lead time, for the global river network. The seasonal forecasts will be evaluated using the global river discharge reanalysis, and observations where available, to determine the potential value of the forecasts across the globe. The seasonal forecasts will be presented as a new layer in the GloFAS interface, which will provide a global map of river catchments, indicating whether the catchment-averaged discharge forecast is showing abnormally high or low flows during the 4-month lead time. Each catchment will display the corresponding forecast as an ensemble hydrograph of the weekly-averaged discharge forecast out to 4 months, with percentile thresholds shown for comparison with the discharge climatology. The forecast visualisation is based on a combination of the current medium-range GloFAS forecasts and the operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal outlook, and aims to effectively communicate the nature of a seasonal outlook while providing useful information to users and partners. We demonstrate the first version of an operational GloFAS seasonal outlook, outlining the model set-up and presenting a first look at the seasonal forecasts that will be displayed in the GloFAS interface, and discuss the initial results of the forecast evaluation.

Radiative Effect of Clouds on Tropospheric Chemistry in a Global Three-Dimensional Chemical Transport Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Hongyu; Crawford, James H.; Pierce, Robert B.; Norris, Peter; Platnick, Steven E.; Chen, Gao; Logan, Jennifer A.; Yantosca, Robert M.; Evans, Mat J.; Kittaka, Chieko;

Influence of Ice Particle Surface Roughening on the Global Cloud Radiative Effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yi, Bingqi; Yang, Ping; Baum, Bryan A.; LEcuyer, Tristan; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Mlawer, Eli J.; Heymsfield, Andrew J.; Liou, Kuo-Nan

2013-01-01

Ice clouds influence the climate system by changing the radiation budget and large-scale circulation. Therefore, climate models need to have an accurate representation of ice clouds and their radiative effects. In this paper, new broadband parameterizations for ice cloud bulk scattering properties are developed for severely roughened ice particles. The parameterizations are based on a general habit mixture that includes nine habits (droxtals, hollow/solid columns, plates, solid/hollow bullet rosettes, aggregate of solid columns, and small/large aggregates of plates). The scattering properties for these individual habits incorporate recent advances in light-scattering computations. The influence of ice particle surface roughness on the ice cloud radiative effect is determined through simulations with the Fu-Liou and the GCM version of the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTMG) codes and the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model (CAM, version 5.1). The differences in shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative effect at both the top of the atmosphere and the surface are determined for smooth and severely roughened ice particles. While the influence of particle roughening on the single-scattering properties is negligible in the LW, the results indicate that ice crystal roughness can change the SW forcing locally by more than 10 W m(exp -2) over a range of effective diameters. The global-averaged SW cloud radiative effect due to ice particle surface roughness is estimated to be roughly 1-2 W m(exp -2). The CAM results indicate that ice particle roughening can result in a large regional SW radiative effect and a small but nonnegligible increase in the global LW cloud radiative effect.

Global surface pressure measurements of static and dynamic stall on a wind turbine airfoil at low Reynolds number

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Disotell, Kevin J.; Nikoueeyan, Pourya; Naughton, Jonathan W.; Gregory, James W.

2016-05-01

Recognizing the need for global surface measurement techniques to characterize the time-varying, three-dimensional loading encountered on rotating wind turbine blades, fast-responding pressure-sensitive paint (PSP) has been evaluated for resolving unsteady aerodynamic effects in incompressible flow. Results of a study aimed at demonstrating the laser-based, single-shot PSP technique on a low Reynolds number wind turbine airfoil in static and dynamic stall are reported. PSP was applied to the suction side of a Delft DU97-W-300 airfoil (maximum thickness-to-chord ratio of 30 %) at a chord Reynolds number of 225,000 in the University of Wyoming open-return wind tunnel. Static and dynamic stall behaviors are presented using instantaneous and phase-averaged global pressure maps. In particular, a three-dimensional pressure topology driven by a stall cell pattern is detected near the maximum lift condition on the steady airfoil. Trends in the PSP-measured pressure topology on the steady airfoil were confirmed using surface oil visualization. The dynamic stall case was characterized by a sinusoidal pitching motion with mean angle of 15.7°, amplitude of 11.2°, and reduced frequency of 0.106 based on semichord. PSP images were acquired at selected phase positions, capturing the breakdown of nominally two-dimensional flow near lift stall, development of post-stall suction near the trailing edge, and a highly three-dimensional topology as the flow reattaches. Structural patterns in the surface pressure topologies are considered from the analysis of the individual PSP snapshots, enabled by a laser-based excitation system that achieves sufficient signal-to-noise ratio in the single-shot images. The PSP results are found to be in general agreement with observations about the steady and unsteady stall characteristics expected for the airfoil.

Future heat waves and surface ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meehl, Gerald A.; Tebaldi, Claudia; Tilmes, Simone; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Bates, Susan; Pendergrass, Angeline; Lombardozzi, Danica

2018-06-01

A global Earth system model is used to study the relationship between heat waves and surface ozone levels over land areas around the world that could experience either large decreases or little change in future ozone precursor emissions. The model is driven by emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors from a medium-high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0–RCP6.0) and is compared to an experiment with anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions fixed at 2005 levels. With ongoing increases in greenhouse gases and corresponding increases in average temperature in both experiments, heat waves are projected to become more intense over most global land areas (greater maximum temperatures during heat waves). However, surface ozone concentrations on future heat wave days decrease proportionately more than on non-heat wave days in areas where ozone precursors are prescribed to decrease in RCP6.0 (e.g. most of North America and Europe), while surface ozone concentrations in heat waves increase in areas where ozone precursors either increase or have little change (e.g. central Asia, the Mideast, northern Africa). In the stabilized ozone precursor experiment, surface ozone concentrations increase on future heat wave days compared to non-heat wave days in most regions except in areas where there is ozone suppression that contributes to decreases in ozone in future heat waves. This is likely associated with effects of changes in isoprene emissions at high temperatures (e.g. west coast and southeastern North America, eastern Europe).

Towards a better understanding of flood generation and surface water inundation mechanisms using NASA remote sensing data products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucey, J.; Reager, J. T., II; Lopez, S. R.

2017-12-01

Floods annually cause several weather-related fatalities and financial losses. According to NOAA and FEMA, there were 43 deaths and 18 billion dollars paid out in flood insurance policies during 2005. The goal of this work is to improve flood prediction and flood risk assessment by creating a general model of predictability of extreme runoff generation using various NASA products. Using satellite-based flood inundation observations, we can relate surface water formation processes to changes in other hydrological variables, such as precipitation, storage and soil moisture, and understand how runoff generation response to these forcings is modulated by local topography and land cover. Since it is known that a flood event would cause an abnormal increase in surface water, we examine these underlying physical relationships in comparison with the Dartmouth Flood Observatory archive of historic flood events globally. Using ground water storage observations (GRACE), precipitation (TRMM or GPCP), land use (MODIS), elevation (SRTM) and surface inundation levels (SWAMPS), an assessment of geological and climate conditions can be performed for any location around the world. This project utilizes multiple linear regression analysis evaluating the relationship between surface water inundation, total water storage anomalies and precipitation values, grouped by average slope or land use, to determine their statistical relationships and influences on inundation data. This research demonstrates the potential benefits of using global data products for early flood prediction and will improve our understanding of runoff generation processes.

Seasonal Phytoplankton Dynamics in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Monger, Bruce; McClain, Charles; Murtugudde, Ragu

1997-01-01

The coastal zone color scanner (CZCS) that operated aboard the Nimbus 7 satellite provided extensive coverage of phytoplankton pigment concentrations in the surface waters of the eastern tropical Atlantic (ETA) from March 1979 to February 1980 and coincided with four major research cruises to this region. Total primary production within the ETA (5 deg N-10 deg S, 25 deg W-10 deg E) was determined from CZCS pigment estimates and an empirical algorithm derived from concurrent in situ data taken along 4 deg W that relates near-surface chlorophyll concentration and integrated primary production. We estimated an average annual production for the ETA of 2.3 Gt C/yr with an associated 3.5-fold seasonal variation in the magnitude of this production. We describe the principal physical mechanisms controlling seasonal phytoplankton dynamics within the ETA and propose that in addition to seasonal change in the thermocline depth, one must also consider changes in the depth of the equatorial under current. An extensive validation effort indicates that the standard CZCS global products are a conservative estimate of pigment concentrations in ETA surface waters. Significant underestimates by the CZCS global products were observed in June and July which we attributed, in part, to aerosol correction errors and, more importantly, to errors caused by a significant reduction in the concentration of near-surface dissolved organic matter that resulted from strong equatorial upwelling.

Interannual Variability of Tropical Ocean Evaporation: A Comparison of Microwave Satellite and Assimilation Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Wick, Gary; Bosilovich, Michael G.

2005-01-01

Remote sensing methodologies for turbulent heat fluxes over oceans depend on driving bulk formulations of fluxes with measured surface winds and estimated near surface thermodynamics from microwave sensors of the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) heritage. We will review recent work with a number of SSM/I-based algorithms and investigate the ability of current data sets to document global, tropical ocean-averaged evaporation changes in association with El Nino and La Nina SST changes. We show that in addition to interannual signals, latent heat flux increases over the period since late 1987 range from approx. .1 to .6 mm/ day are present; these represent trends 2 to 3 times larger than the NCEP Reanalysis. Since atmospheric storage cannot account for the difference, and since compensating evapotranspiration changes over land are highly unlikely to be this large, these evaporation estimates cannot be reconciled with ocean precipitation records such as those produced by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project, GPCP. The reasons for the disagreement include less than adequate intercalibration between SSM/I sensors providing winds and water vapor for driving the algorithms, biases due to the assumption that column integrated water vapor mirrors near surface water vapor variations, and other factors as well. The reanalyses have their own problems with spin-up during assimilation, lack of constraining input data at the ocean surface, and amplitude of synoptic transients.

Spatial variation in energy exchange across coastal environments in Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lund, M.; Abermann, J.; Citterio, M.; Hansen, B. U.; Larsen, S. H.; Stiegler, C.; Sørensen, L. L.; van As, D.

2015-12-01

The surface energy partitioning in Arctic terrestrial and marine areas is a crucial process, regulating snow, glacier ice and sea ice melt, and permafrost thaw, as well as modulating Earth's climate on both local, regional, and eventually, global scales. The Arctic region has warmed approximately twice as much as the global average, due to a number of feedback mechanisms related to energy partitioning, most importantly the snow and ice-albedo feedback. However, direct measurements of surface energy budgets in the Arctic are scarce, especially for the cold and dark winter period and over transects going from the ice sheet and glaciers to the sea. This study aims to describe annual cycles of the surface energy budget from various surface types in Arctic Greenland; e.g. glacier, snow, wet and dry tundra and sea ice, based on data from a number of measurement locations across coastal Greenland related to the Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring (GEM) program, including Station Nord/Kronprins Christians Land, Zackenberg/Daneborg, Disko, Qaanaq, Nuuk/Kobbefjord and Upernaviarsuk. Based on the available time series, we will analyze the sensitivity of the energy balance partitioning to variations in meteorological conditions (temperature, cloudiness, precipitation). Such analysis would allow for a quantification of the spatial variation in the energy exchange in aforementioned Arctic environments. Furthermore, this study will identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps in Arctic energy budgets and related climate feedback effects.

Long-Term Planetary Habitability and the Carbonate-Silicate Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rushby, Andrew J.; Johnson, Martin; Mills, Benjamin J. W.; Watson, Andrew J.; Claire, Mark W.

2018-05-01

The potential habitability of an exoplanet is traditionally assessed by determining if its orbit falls within the circumstellar `habitable zone' of its star, defined as the distance at which water could be liquid on the surface of a planet (Kopparapu et al., 2013). Traditionally, these limits are determined by radiative-convective climate models, which are used to predict surface temperatures at user-specified levels of greenhouse gases. This approach ignores the vital question of the (bio)geochemical plausibility of the proposed chemical abundances. Carbon dioxide is the most important greenhouse gas in Earth's atmosphere in terms of regulating planetary temperature, with the long term concentration controlled by the balance between volcanic outgassing and the sequestration of CO2 via chemical weathering and sedimentation, as modulated by ocean chemistry, circulation and biological (microbial) productivity. We develop a model incorporating key aspects of Earth's short and long-term biogeochemical carbon cycle to explore the potential changes in the CO2 greenhouse due to variance in planet size and stellar insolation. We find that proposed changes in global topography, tectonics, and the hydrological cycle on larger planets results in proportionally greater surface temperatures for a given incident flux. For planets between 0.5 to 2 R_earth the effect of these changes results in average global surface temperature deviations of up to 20 K, which suggests that these relationships must be considered in future studies of planetary habitability.

Globally-Gridded Interpolated Night-Time Marine Air Temperatures 1900-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Junod, R.; Christy, J. R.

2016-12-01

Over the past century, climate records have pointed to an increase in global near-surface average temperature. Near-surface air temperature over the oceans is a relatively unused parameter in understanding the current state of climate, but is useful as an independent temperature metric over the oceans and serves as a geographical and physical complement to near-surface air temperature over land. Though versions of this dataset exist (i.e. HadMAT1 and HadNMAT2), it has been strongly recommended that various groups generate climate records independently. This University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) study began with the construction of monthly night-time marine air temperature (UAHNMAT) values from the early-twentieth century through to the present era. Data from the International Comprehensive Ocean and Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) were used to compile a time series of gridded UAHNMAT, (20S-70N). This time series was homogenized to correct for the many biases such as increasing ship height, solar deck heating, etc. The time series of UAHNMAT, once adjusted to a standard reference height, is gridded to 1.25° pentad grid boxes and interpolated using the kriging interpolation technique. This study will present results which quantify the variability and trends and compare to current trends of other related datasets that include HadNMAT2 and sea-surface temperatures (HadISST & ERSSTv4).

Significant Climate Changes Caused by Soot Emitted From Rockets in the Stratosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, M. J.; Ross, M.; Toohey, D. W.

2010-12-01

A new type of hydrocarbon rocket engine with a larger soot emission index than current kerosene rockets is expected to power a fleet of suborbital rockets for commercial and scientific purposes in coming decades. At projected launch rates, emissions from these rockets will create a persistent soot layer in the northern middle stratosphere that would disproportionally affect the Earth’s atmosphere and cryosphere. A global climate model predicts that thermal forcing in the rocket soot layer will cause significant changes in the global atmospheric circulation and distributions of ozone and temperature. Tropical ozone columns decline as much as 1%, while polar ozone columns increase by up to 6%. Polar surface temperatures rise one Kelvin regionally and polar summer sea ice fractions shrink between 5 - 15%. After 20 years of suborbital rocket fleet operation, globally averaged radiative forcing (RF) from rocket soot exceeds the RF from rocket CO_{2} by six orders of magnitude, but remains small, comparable to the global RF from aviation. The response of the climate system is surprising given the small forcing, and should be investigated further with different climate models.

FliPer: checking the reliability of global seismic parameters from automatic pipelines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bugnet, L.; García, R. A.; Davies, G. R.; Mathur, S.; Corsaro, E.

2017-12-01

Our understanding of stars through asteroseismic data analysis is limited by our ability to take advantage of the huge amount of observed stars provided by space missions such as CoRoT, \\keplerp, \\ktop, and soon TESS and PLATO. Global seismic pipelines provide global stellar parameters such as mass and radius using the mean seismic parameters, as well as the effective temperature. These pipelines are commonly used automatically on thousands of stars observed by K2 for 3 months (and soon TESS for at least ˜ 1 month). However, pipelines are not immune from misidentifying noise peaks and stellar oscillations. Therefore, new validation techniques are required to assess the quality of these results. We present a new metric called FliPer (Flicker in Power), which takes into account the average variability at all measured time scales. The proper calibration of \\powvar enables us to obtain good estimations of global stellar parameters such as surface gravity that are robust against the influence of noise peaks and hence are an excellent way to find faults in asteroseismic pipelines.

On the role of atmosphere-ocean interactions in the expected long-term changes of the Earth's ozone layer caused by greenhouse gases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zadorozhny, Alexander; Dyominov, Igor

It is well known that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere produce a global warming of the troposphere and a global cooling of the stratosphere. The expected stratospheric cooling essentially influences the ozone layer via increased polar stratospheric cloud formation and via temperature dependences of the gas phase reaction rates. One more mechanism of how greenhouse gases influences the ozone layer is enhanced water evaporation from the oceans into the atmosphere because of increasing temperatures of the ocean surface due to greenhouse effect. The subject of this paper is a study of the influence of anthropogenic pollution of the atmosphere by the greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, N2O and ozone-depleting chlorine and bromine compounds on the expected long-term changes of the ozone layer with taking into account an increase of water vapour content in the atmosphere due to greenhouse effect. The study based on 2-D zonally averaged interactive dynamical radiative-photochemical model of the troposphere and stratosphere. The model allows to self-consistently calculating diabatic circulation, temperature, gaseous composition of the troposphere and stratosphere at latitudes from the South to North Poles, as well as distribution of sulphate aerosol particles and polar stratospheric clouds of two types. It was supposed in the model that an increase of the ocean surface temperature caused by greenhouse effect is similar to calculated increase of atmospheric surface temperature. Evaporation rate from the ocean surface was computed in dependence of latitude. The model time-dependent runs were made for the period from 1975 to 2100 using two IPCC scenarios depicting maximum and average expected increases of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The model calculations show that anthropogenic increasing of water vapour abundance in the atmosphere due to heating of the ocean surface caused by greenhouse effect gives a sensible contribution to the expected ozone changes. The enhanced evaporation from the ocean increases noticeably a water vapour abundance in the stratosphere that decreases global total ozone and retards the expected recovery of the ozone layer. In polar latitudes, additional stratospheric water vapour increase due to greenhouse effect noticeably strengthens the impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gases on ozone through modification of polar stratospheric clouds and retards the expected recovery of the ozone, too. In the Northern hemisphere, the delay of the ozone recovery is about 5 years, in the Southern hemisphere the delay is about 2 years.

Long-memory and the sea level-temperature relationship: a fractional cointegration approach.

PubMed

Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel; Heres, David R; Martínez-Hernández, L Catalina

2014-01-01

Through thermal expansion of oceans and melting of land-based ice, global warming is very likely contributing to the sea level rise observed during the 20th century. The amount by which further increases in global average temperature could affect sea level is only known with large uncertainties due to the limited capacity of physics-based models to predict sea levels from global surface temperatures. Semi-empirical approaches have been implemented to estimate the statistical relationship between these two variables providing an alternative measure on which to base potentially disrupting impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems. However, only a few of these semi-empirical applications had addressed the spurious inference that is likely to be drawn when one nonstationary process is regressed on another. Furthermore, it has been shown that spurious effects are not eliminated by stationary processes when these possess strong long memory. Our results indicate that both global temperature and sea level indeed present the characteristics of long memory processes. Nevertheless, we find that these variables are fractionally cointegrated when sea-ice extent is incorporated as an instrumental variable for temperature which in our estimations has a statistically significant positive impact on global sea level.

January and July global distributions of atmospheric heating for 1986, 1987, and 1988

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schaack, Todd K.; Johnson, Donald R.

1994-01-01

Three-dimensional global distributions of atmospheric heating are estimated for January and July of the 3-year period 1986-88 from the European Center for Medium Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) assimilated datasets. Emphasis is placed on the interseasonal and interannual variability of heating both locally and regionally. Large fluctuations in the magnitude of heating and the disposition of maxima/minima in the Tropics occur over the 3-year period. This variability, which is largely in accord with anomalous precipitation expected during the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, appears realistic. In both January and July, interannual differences of 1.0-1.5 K/day in the vertically averaged heating occur over the tropical Pacific. These interannual regional differences are substantial in comparison with maximum monthly averaged heating rates of 2.0-2.5 K/day. In the extratropics, the most prominent interannual variability occurs along the wintertime North Atlantic cyclone track. Vertical profiles of heating from selected regions also reveal large interannual variability. Clearly evident is the modulation of the heating within tropical regions of deep moist convection associated with the evolution of the ENSO cycle. The heating integrated over continental and oceanic basins emphasizes the impact of land and ocean surfaces on atmospheric energy balance and depicts marked interseasonal and interannual large-scale variability.

Fighting global warming by greenhouse gas removal: destroying atmospheric nitrous oxide thanks to synergies between two breakthrough technologies.

PubMed

Ming, Tingzhen; de Richter, Renaud; Shen, Sheng; Caillol, Sylvain

2016-04-01

Even if humans stop discharging CO2 into the atmosphere, the average global temperature will still increase during this century. A lot of research has been devoted to prevent and reduce the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the atmosphere, in order to mitigate the effects of climate change. Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is one of the technologies that might help to limit emissions. In complement, direct CO2 removal from the atmosphere has been proposed after the emissions have occurred. But, the removal of all the excess anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 will not be enough, due to the fact that CO2 outgases from the ocean as its solubility is dependent of its atmospheric partial pressure. Bringing back the Earth average surface temperature to pre-industrial levels would require the removal of all previously emitted CO2. Thus, the atmospheric removal of other greenhouse gases is necessary. This article proposes a combination of disrupting techniques to transform nitrous oxide (N2O), the third most important greenhouse gas (GHG) in terms of current radiative forcing, which is harmful for the ozone layer and possesses quite high global warming potential. Although several scientific publications cite "greenhouse gas removal," to our knowledge, it is the first time innovative solutions are proposed to effectively remove N2O or other GHGs from the atmosphere other than CO2.

Global warming and the possible globalization of vector-borne diseases: a call for increased awareness and action.

PubMed

Balogun, Emmanuel O; Nok, Andrew J; Kita, Kiyoshi

2016-01-01

Human activities such as burning of fossil fuels play a role in upsetting a previously more balanced and harmonious ecosystem. Climate change-a significant variation in the usual pattern of Earth's average weather conditions is a product of this ecosystem imbalance, and the rise in the Earth's average temperature (global warming) is a prominent evidence. There is a correlation between global warming and the ease of transmission of infectious diseases. Therefore, with global health in focus, we herein opine a stepping-up of research activities regarding global warming and infectious diseases globally.

The Correlation Between Atmospheric Dust Deposition to the Surface Ocean and SeaWiFS Ocean Color: A Global Satellite-Based Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Erickson, D. J., III; Hernandez, J.; Ginoux, P.; Gregg, W.; Kawa, R.; Behrenfeld, M.; Esaias, W.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Since the atmospheric deposition of iron has been linked to primary productivity in various oceanic regions, we have conducted an objective study of the correlation of dust deposition and satellite remotely sensed surface ocean chlorophyll concentrations. We present a global analysis of the correlation between atmospheric dust deposition derived from a satellite-based 3-D atmospheric transport model and SeaWiFs estimates of ocean color. We use the monthly mean dust deposition fields of Ginoux et al. which are based on a global model of dust generation and transport. This model is driven by atmospheric circulation from the Data Assimilation Office (DAO) for the period 1995-1998. This global dust model is constrained by several satellite estimates of standard circulation characteristics. We then perform an analysis of the correlation between the dust deposition and the 1998 SeaWIFS ocean color data for each 2.0 deg x 2.5 deg lat/long grid point, for each month of the year. The results are surprisingly robust. The region between 40 S and 60 S has correlation coefficients from 0.6 to 0.95, statistically significant at the 0.05 level. There are swaths of high correlation at the edges of some major ocean current systems. We interpret these correlations as reflecting areas that have shear related turbulence bringing nitrogen and phosphorus from depth into the surface ocean, and the atmospheric supply of iron provides the limiting nutrient and the correlation between iron deposition and surface ocean chlorophyll is high. There is a region in the western North Pacific with high correlation, reflecting the input of Asian dust to that region. The southern hemisphere has an average correlation coefficient of 0.72 compared that in the northern hemisphere of 0.42 consistent with present conceptual models of where atmospheric iron deposition may play a role in surface ocean biogeochemical cycles. The spatial structure of the correlation fields will be discussed within the context of guiding the design of field programs.

From Paris to Iowa and Back: Global Temperature Targets, Agricultural Impacts, and Producer Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, C.; Hayhoe, K.; Terando, A. J.

2016-12-01

Traditionally, assessments such as those produced by IPCC and USGCRP have been structured to provide a one-way flow of information from scientists to national and international policy makers. Because the Paris Agreement will ultimately require corresponding domestic policies, the traditional one-way information flow could be inadequate, since it lacks both direct participation and informed feedback from many of the important entities that influence domestic policy. We have engaged Iowa row crop producers in identifying impacts and feasibility of adaptation under global warming of 1.0 and 2.0OC. Our engagement seeks to create within climate impacts assessment a decision-maker feedback loop. We have engaged an expert panel by using yield data modeling as a first step to communicate vividly the potential yield impacts of global average temperature targets. This engagement included validation with historical global average temperature before presenting yield impact under global mean surface temperature increase of 1.0 and 2.0OC. The expert panel requested further analysis of targets at 0.25 and 0.50OC increase and of possible impacts should they pursue adaptation by increasing maize plant population density and soil moisture storage. Several clear messages have emerged that can be voiced by Iowa agribusiness leaders to national and international decision-makers. While Iowa soybean agriculture may remain robust for the foreseeable future, the Paris Agreement is insufficient to protect Iowa maize production from substantial changes in productivity and volatility. These effects could be largely (though not entirely) mitigated by moving from the current +2OC to the "high ambition" +1.5OC target. The projected spring rainfall increase of 10% under +1OC would increase the cost of spring planting. The data model predicts a 5-day reduction in average number of fieldwork days, which requires the addition of one half-time person or larger planting equipment. The current annual rate of increase in maize plant density will maintain historical yield increase through +1OC but by +2OC is substantially reduced and results in unprecedented yield volatility. By increasing soil moisture during July, Iowa maize production can reduce markedly the impacts of +2OC.

Carbon, land, and water footprint accounts for the European Union: consumption, production, and displacements through international trade.

PubMed

Steen-Olsen, Kjartan; Weinzettel, Jan; Cranston, Gemma; Ercin, A Ertug; Hertwich, Edgar G

2012-10-16

A nation's consumption of goods and services causes various environmental pressures all over the world due to international trade. We use a multiregional input-output model to assess three kinds of environmental footprints for the member states of the European Union. Footprints are indicators that take the consumer responsibility approach to account for the total direct and indirect effects of a product or consumption activity. We quantify the total environmental pressures (greenhouse gas emissions: carbon footprint; appropriation of biologically productive land and water area: land footprint; and freshwater consumption: water footprint) caused by consumption in the EU. We find that the consumption activities by an average EU citizen in 2004 led to 13.3 tCO(2)e of induced greenhouse gas emissions, appropriation of 2.53 gha (hectares of land with global-average biological productivity), and consumption of 179 m(3) of blue water (ground and surface water). By comparison, the global averages were 5.7 tCO(2)e, 1.23 gha, and 163 m(3) blue water, respectively. Overall, the EU displaced all three types of environmental pressures to the rest of the world, through imports of products with embodied pressures. Looking at intra-EU displacements only, the UK was the most important displacer overall, while the largest net exporters of embodied environmental pressures were Poland (greenhouse gases), France (land), and Spain (freshwater).

Variability in modeled cloud feedback tied to differences in the climatological spatial pattern of clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siler, Nicholas; Po-Chedley, Stephen; Bretherton, Christopher S.

2018-02-01

Despite the increasing sophistication of climate models, the amount of surface warming expected from a doubling of atmospheric CO_2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity) remains stubbornly uncertain, in part because of differences in how models simulate the change in global albedo due to clouds (the shortwave cloud feedback). Here, model differences in the shortwave cloud feedback are found to be closely related to the spatial pattern of the cloud contribution to albedo (α) in simulations of the current climate: high-feedback models exhibit lower (higher) α in regions of warm (cool) sea-surface temperatures, and therefore predict a larger reduction in global-mean α as temperatures rise and warm regions expand. The spatial pattern of α is found to be strongly predictive (r=0.84) of a model's global cloud feedback, with satellite observations indicating a most-likely value of 0.58± 0.31 Wm^{-2} K^{-1} (90% confidence). This estimate is higher than the model-average cloud feedback of 0.43 Wm^{-2} K^{-1}, with half the range of uncertainty. The observational constraint on climate sensitivity is weaker but still significant, suggesting a likely value of 3.68 ± 1.30 K (90% confidence), which also favors the upper range of model estimates. These results suggest that uncertainty in model estimates of the global cloud feedback may be substantially reduced by ensuring a realistic distribution of clouds between regions of warm and cool SSTs in simulations of the current climate.

Impact-Induced Climate Change on Titan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zahnle, Kevin; Korycansky, Donald

2012-01-01

Titan's thick atmosphere and volatile surface cause it to respond to big impacts like the one that produced the prominent Menrva impact basin in a somewhat Earth-like manner. Menrva was big enough to raise the surface temperature by 100 K. If methane in the regolith is generally as abundant as it was at the Huygens landing site, Menrva would have been big enough to double the amount of methane in the atmosphere. The extra methane would have drizzled out of the atmosphere over hundreds of years. Conditions may have been favorable for clathrating volatiles such as ethane. Impacts can also create local crater lakes set in warm ice but these quickly sink below the warm ice; whether the cryptic waters quickly freeze by mixing with the ice crust or whether they long endure under the ice remains a open question. Bigger impacts can create shallow liquid water oceans at the surface. If Titan's crust is made of water ice, the putative Hotei impact (a possible 800-1200 km diameter basin, Soderblom et al 2009) would have raised the average surface temperature to 350-400 K. Water rain would have fallen and global meltwaters would have averaged 50 m to as much as 500 m deep. The meltwaters may not have lasted more than a few decades or centuries at most, but are interesting to consider given Titan's organic wealth.

Comparison of CFD Predictions with Shuttle Global Flight Thermal Imagery and Discrete Surface Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, William A.; Kleb, William L.; Tang, chun Y.; Palmer, Grant E.; Hyatt, Andrew J.; Wise, Adam J.; McCloud, Peter L.

2010-01-01

Surface temperature measurements from the STS-119 boundary-layer transition experiment on the space shuttle orbiter Discovery provide a rare opportunity to assess turbulent CFD models at hypersonic flight conditions. This flight data was acquired by on-board thermocouples and by infrared images taken off-board by the Hypersonic Thermodynamic Infrared Measurements (HYTHIRM) team, and is suitable for hypersonic CFD turbulence assessment between Mach 6 and 14. The primary assessment is for the Baldwin-Lomax and Cebeci-Smith algebraic turbulence models in the DPLR and LAURA CFD codes, respectively. A secondary assessment is made of the Shear-Stress Transport (SST) two-equation turbulence model in the DPLR code. Based upon surface temperature comparisons at eleven thermocouple locations, the algebraic-model turbulent CFD results average 4% lower than the measurements for Mach numbers less than 11. For Mach numbers greater than 11, the algebraic-model turbulent CFD results average 5% higher than the three available thermocouple measurements. Surface temperature predictions from the two SST cases were consistently 3 4% higher than the algebraic-model results. The thermocouple temperatures exhibit a change in trend with Mach number at about Mach 11; this trend is not reflected in the CFD results. Because the temperature trends from the turbulent CFD simulations and the flight data diverge above Mach 11, extrapolation of the turbulent CFD accuracy to higher Mach numbers is not recommended.

Bacteriological assessment of the hospital environment in two referral hospitals in Yaoundé-Cameroon.

PubMed

Gonsu, Kamga Hortense; Guenou, Etienne; Toukam, Michel; Ndze, Valantine Ngum; Mbakop, Calixte Didier; Tankeu, Dongmo Norbert; Mbopi-Keou, Francois Xavier; Takongmo, Samuel

2015-01-01

Many studies still show significant numbers of surgical patients contracting nosocomial infections each year globally with high morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to identify potential bacteria reservoirs that may be responsible for nosocomial infection in surgical services in the Yaoundé University Teaching Hospital (YUTH) and the Central Hospital Yaoundé (CHY). A cross sectional descriptive study was conducted from June to August 2012. Air, water, and surface samples were collected from two surgical services and subjected to standard bacteriological analysis. A total of 143 surface samples were collected. Bacteria were isolated in all surfaces except from one trolley sample and a surgical cabinet sample. The predominant species in all services was coagulase negative Staphylococcus (CNS). The average number of colonies was 132. 82 CFU/25 cm(2). The bacteria isolated in the air were similar to those isolated from surfaces. From the 16 water samples cultured, an average of 50.93 CFU/100ml bacteria were isolated. The distribution of isolated species showed a predominance of Burkholderia cepacia. These results showed the importance of the hospital environment as a potential reservoir and source of nosocomial infections amongst surgical patient at YUTH and CHY, thus we suggest that Public health policy makers in Cameroon must define, publish guidelines and recommendations for monitoring environmental microbiota in health facilities.

Comparison of land-surface humidity between observations and CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunn, Robert; Willett, Kate; Ciavarella, Andrew; Stott, Peter; Jones, Gareth

2017-04-01

We compare the latest observational land-surface humidity dataset, HadISDH, with the CMIP5 model archive spatially and temporally over the period 1973-2015. None of the CMIP5 models or experiments capture the observed temporal behaviour of the globally averaged relative or specific humidity over the entire study period. When using an atmosphere-only model, driven by observed sea-surface temperatures and radiative forcing changes, the behaviour of regional average temperature and specific humidity are better captured, but there is little improvement in the relative humidity. Comparing the observed and historical model climatologies show that the models are generally cooler everywhere, are drier and less saturated in the tropics and extra tropics, and have comparable moisture levels but are more saturated in the high latitudes. The spatial pattern of linear trends are relatively similar between the models and HadISDH for temperature and specific humidity, but there are large differences for relative humidity, with less moistening shown in the models over the Tropics, and very little at high atitudes. The observed temporal behaviour appears to be a robust climate feature rather than observational error. It has been previously documented and is theoretically consistent with faster warming rates over land compared to oceans. Thus, the poor replication in the models, especially in the atmosphere only model, leads to questions over future projections of impacts related to changes in surface relative humidity.

EDITORIAL: The Earth radiation balance as driver of the global hydrological cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Martin; Liepert, Beate

2010-06-01

Variations in the intensity of the global hydrological cycle can have far-reaching effects on living conditions on our planet. While climate change discussions often revolve around possible consequences of future temperature changes, the adaptation to changes in the hydrological cycle may pose a bigger challenge to societies and ecosystems. Floods and droughts are already today amongst the most damaging natural hazards, with floods being globally the most significant disaster type in terms of loss of human life (Jonkman 2005). From an economic perspective, changes in the hydrological cycle can impose great pressures and damages on a variety of industrial sectors, such as water management, urban planning, agricultural production and tourism. Despite their obvious environmental and societal importance, our understanding of the causes and magnitude of the variations of the hydrological cycle is still unsatisfactory (e.g., Ramanathan et al 2001, Ohmura and Wild 2002, Allen and Ingram 2002, Allan 2007, Wild et al 2008, Liepert and Previdi 2009). The link between radiation balance and hydrological cycle Globally, precipitation can be approximated by surface evaporation, since the variability of the atmospheric moisture storage is negligible. This is the case because the fluxes are an order of magnitude larger than the atmospheric storage (423 x 1012 m3 year-1 versus 13 x 1012 m3 according to Baumgartner and Reichel (1975)), the latter being determined by temperature (Clausius-Clapeyron). Hence the residence time of evaporated water in the atmosphere is not more than a few days, before it condenses and falls back to Earth in the form of precipitation. Any change in the globally averaged surface evaporation therefore implies an equivalent change in precipitation, and thus in the intensity of the global hydrological cycle. The process of evaporation requires energy, which it obtains from the surface radiation balance (also known as surface net radiation), composed of the absorbed solar and net thermal radiative exchanges at the Earth's surface. Globally averaged, this surface radiation balance is positive, since radiative absorption, scattering and emission in the climate system act to generate an energy surplus at the surface and an energy deficit in the atmosphere (Liepert 2010). Evaporation, or more precisely its energy equivalent, the latent heat flux, is the main process that compensates for this imbalance between surface and atmosphere, since the latent heat dominates the convective energy flux over sensible heating. The radiative energy surplus at the surface is thus mainly consumed by evaporation and moist convection and subsequently released in the atmosphere through condensation. This implies that any alterations in the available radiative energy will induce changes in the water fluxes. Our focus in this editorial is therefore on the surface radiation balance as the principal driver of the global hydrological cycle. Note that this energetic view is in agreement with that of Richter and Xie (2008) who argue that the spatial and temporal behaviour of the process of evaporation is controlled by surface and atmospheric properties such as atmospheric stability, wind speed, moisture deficit and moisture availability. From radiation theory it is expected that with increasing radiative absorption due to abundance of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and consequent warming, the emission of thermal energy from the atmosphere towards the surface is increasing (known as downward thermal radiation). This enhances the radiative energy surplus at the surface, and, where surface water is not limited, fuels evaporation besides warming the Earth's surface. The enhanced greenhouse effect therefore tends to accelerate the hydrological cycle, as also shown in many climate model simulations with increasing levels of greenhouse gases (e.g., IPCC 2007, but also see Yang et al 2003, Andrews et al 2009). We can assume that the increase in greenhouse gases since preindustrial times had already led to a substantial increase of downward thermal radiation during the 20th century, even though direct observational evidence is sparse and restricted to the latter part of the century (Philipona et al 2004, Wild et al 2008). Precipitation records averaged over global land surfaces indicate an overall, albeit not significant, increase in precipitation and intensification of the hydrological cycle over the 20th century (Trenberth et al 2007), in line with the aforementioned surface energy gain from the increased greenhouse gases and related downward thermal radiation. However, the observations show also that precipitation has not simply followed the increasing greenhouse gas forcing, but has undergone strong decadal variations, with extended periods of both increases and decreases. This is evident in figure 1(a), which shows global land precipitation over the 20th century as determined from the Global Historic Climate Network (GHCN; Peterson and Vose 1997, see also Trenberth et al 2007, figure 3.12). An increase in precipitation can be noted in the 1940s, followed by an overall decrease until the mid-1980s, and a renewed increase more recently. Figure 1 Figure 1. Observed terrestrial precipitation anomalies (a) and the longest observational surface solar radiation record measured in Stockholm (b) covering the period 1923-2000 (annual means). The 11-year running means are given in blue. Precipitation data from GHCN, radiation data from GEBA. However, not only greenhouse-gas-induced thermal radiation changes, but also solar radiation, as a result of changes in the atmospheric transmission, can alter the surface radiation balance and thus the amount of energy available to drive the hydrological cycle. Solar forcings may be even more efficient in modifying the intensity of the hydrological cycle than thermal forcings, as indicated by a higher hydrological sensitivity (e.g., Allen and Ingram 2002, Liepert et al 2004). The hydrological sensitivity, defined as change of precipitation per unit temperature change, is found to be 2-3 times larger under solar forcings than under thermal forcings (Liepert et al 2004, Andrews et al 2009). This is related to the fact that solar forcings apply at the surface directly because of the high solar transparency of the atmosphere compared to thermal radiation. Solar forcings thus effectively alter the surface radiation balance and the associated imbalance between the surface and atmospheric energy contents, which needs to be compensated for by convective fluxes and related evaporation/precipitation. Greenhouse-gas-induced thermal forcings, on the other hand, heat the atmosphere directly through radiative absorption and the surface indirectly through downward thermal radiation. Thermal forcings are therefore less effective in strengthening the imbalance between the surface and atmospheric energy contents. Hence the required changes in the compensational convective fluxes and associated evaporation/precipitation are smaller (equation (4) in Liepert and Previdi 2009). The different effects of solar and thermal forcings become particularly evident in the direct (fast) response of the hydrological cycle to them, while the subsequent longer-term response of the hydrological cycle, including all feedbacks induced by these forcings, is similar between the two forcing mechanisms (Andrews et al 2009, Lambert and Webb 2008). The direct effect of doubling of CO2 concentration reduces the precipitation increase in climate models by about 25% (Lambert and Webb 2008), while such compensational effects do not apply with solar forcings. Recent evidence suggests that the amount of solar radiation incident at the Earth's surface (hereafter referred to as downward solar radiation) has indeed not been stable over time but has undergone significant variations on decadal timescales. This evidence comes from the networks of surface radiation measurements taken around the globe which became operational on a widespread basis during the 1950s. Specifically, the measurements show a predominant decrease in downward solar radiation from the 1950s up to the 1980s (known as 'global dimming') and a partial recovery thereafter at many of the sites (known as 'brightening') (e.g., Gilgen et al 1998, Stanhill and Cohen 2001, Liepert 2002, Wild et al 2005, Wild 2009a). The consecutive downward and upward trends have at least to some extent been attributed to increasing and decreasing air pollution, respectively (Streets et al 2009), apart from the natural inter-decadal variability of cloudiness and volcanic eruptions. The longest observational records show in addition a tendency for an increase in downward solar radiation in the first part of the 20th century ('early brightening'). An illustrative example is given in figure 1(b), which depicts the longest continuous record of downward solar radiation measured in Stockholm. This series, starting in 1923, shows an increase in the 1930s and 1940s, an overall decrease from the 1950s up to the 1980s and a more recent recovery. This evolution is, surprisingly, at least qualitatively similar to the global land precipitation record shown in figure 1(a). Although a comparison of a radiation time series measured at a single station with a global land-averaged precipitation time series is by no means representative, it may illustrate the above point of a potential close link between decadal variations of surface radiation and precipitation. Attempts have been made to infer decadal changes in the surface radiation balance based on both modelling and observational approaches. Liepert et al (2004) analyzed equilibrium experiments with a climate model with greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations representative for mid-1880s and mid-1980s conditions, respectively. They noted a decrease in absorbed solar radiation at the surface of 3.8 Wm-2 globally, mainly due to the aerosol direct and indirect effects, which are larger than the increased greenhouse effect of 1.9 Wm-2. This resulted in a reduction of net surface radiation of 1.9 Wm-2 globally, and a related spin down of the simulated hydrological cycle. Wild et al (2004), based on observational evidence, estimated that the decrease in downward solar radiation between the 1950s and 1980s may have overcompensated the increase in the greenhouse-gas-induced downward thermal radiation during the same period, thus implying a decrease in the surface radiation balance over this period. This fits well with the overall decrease in global terrestrial precipitation between the 1950s and 1980s seen in figure 1(a). This decrease is on the order of 30-40 mm, which corresponds to roughly 3 Wm-2 latent heat equivalent, and which would imply a similar decrease in surface net radiation. Assuming further a decreasing net surface thermal cooling of -1 Wm-2 over this period (Wild et al 2004), this would require an overall decline of about 4 Wm-2 in surface solar radiation to balance it, which is not unrealistic. Since the 1980s, however, there are indications that downward solar radiation overall has recovered and contributed to the increase in the radiative imbalance at the surface, which had increased already due to the increasing downward thermal radiation (Wild et al 2008, see also figure 1(b). This increase in the surface radiation balance, estimated at 2 Wm-2 decade-1 in Wild et al (2008), fits the observational evidence for a recent increase in terrestrial precipitation and associated intensification of the hydrological cycle (figure 1(a)). Improved knowledge of variations of the components of the surface radiation balance is therefore a key to our understanding of past, present and future variations in the intensity of the hydrological cycle. Surface radiation balance and the hydrological cycle in climate models A number of recent studies have pointed out that climate models driven with all known historical forcings simulate smaller changes in precipitation than observed over recent decades (Zhang et al 2007, Wentz et al 2007, Allan and Soden 2007, Liepert and Previdi 2009, Wild et al 2008, Wild 2009a), and may underestimate the increase in precipitation extremes with global warming (Allan and Soden 2008). For the present study, in figure 2 we compare precipitation changes during the 20th century over land surfaces as observed (blue lines, equivalent to figure 1(a)) and simulated by 18 individual coupled atmosphere-ocean models (CMIP3 models) used in the IPCC-AR4 report (in red). Shown are annual anomalies with respect to the 20th century means (dashed lines) as well as superimposed 11-year running means (solid lines) that highlight the decadal variations in both models and observations. None of the models captures the observed decadal variations during the 20th century. Particularly, none of the models qualitatively reproduces the sequence of increase in the 1930s/1940s, decrease from 1950s to the 1980s and renewed increase to 2000, and the correlations between observations and models are insignificant. Standard deviations of the 11-year running means, indicative of the amplitude of decadal variations in the 20th century annual precipitation, amount to 10.7 mm in the GHNC observations and 5.0 mm on average in the models (with a range from 2.6 mm to 10.6 mm). The closest standard deviation to the observations with 10.6 mm is found in the miroc_medres model simulation; however this simulation does not reproduce the main temporal characteristics of the observed time series either (figure 2). Thus, none of the models is capable of simulating the full extent and temporal evolution of decadal variations in 20th century terrestrial precipitation (see also Liepert and Previdi 2009). Here we argue that, among other possibilities, inadequacies in the simulation of surface radiation balance may contribute to the poor simulation of decadal variations in precipitation during the 20th century seen in figure 2. A closer lookat the simulated evolution of the radiation balance over land surfaces during the 20th century seems to confirm this. Specifically, only half of the models qualitatively reproduce the decrease in the terrestrial surface radiation balance between the 1950s and 1980s and the subsequent recovery as indicated in estimates based on observations. Quantitatively, from 1950 to 1985, the linear change in the model-calculated surface radiation balance is on average almost zero, as opposed to the observational evidence for declining surface radiation balance over this period (Wild et al 2004). Over the period 1985-2000, the multi-model mean amounts to an increase of 0.22 Wm-2 decade-1 (with a range from -0.10 to 0.57 Wm-2 decade-1, which is an order of magnitude smaller than for example the estimate given in Wild et al (2008). Figure 2 Figure 2. Terrestrial precipitation anomalies during the 20th century as observed (in blue) and simulated by various models used in the IPCC 4th assessment report and in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) (in red). Annual mean time series given as dashed lines, 11-year running means as solid lines. Reference period is the entire 20th century. Annual precipitation observations from GHCN (Peterson and Vose 1997), units mm. Truly global observational estimates of precipitation changes (covering both land and oceans) exist only since 1987 with the advent of satellite data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I). Based on these observations, Wentz et al (2007) determined an increase in global mean precipitation of 13.2 +/- 4.8 mm yr-1 decade-1 over the period 1987-2006. To induce such an increase, which corresponds to a latent heat release of approximately 1 Wm-2 per decade, an increase in the globally averaged surface radiation balance of at least the same amount would be required accordingly. We obtained this estimate under the assumption of (1) an unchanged sensible heat flux and (2) an unchanged top of atmosphere radiation balance and corresponding surface heat uptake by the ocean and landmasses, so that globally the change in surface net radiation is balanced by the change in latent heat flux. Regarding assumption (1), the global mean sensible heat flux is an order of magnitude smaller than the latent heat flux, and therefore even large relative changes in sensible heating would be small in absolute terms. Assumption (2) is a conservative assumption and can be considered an upper limit because ocean and land heat uptake has likely subtracted a portion of the radiative energy available for evaporation (see, e.g., Hansen et al 2005) over recent decades. Therefore, if the Wentz et al (2007) estimated precipitation increase is unbiased, this would likely require a global mean surface radiation increase of more than 1 Wm-2 per decade (cf also the estimated 2 Wm-2 per decade increase in surface net radiation over land surfaces in Wild et al (2008)). Current climate models, on the other hand, show a much smaller average increase of less than 0.3 Wm-2 per decade. The underestimation of decadal scale variations in downward solar radiation and a lack of dimming and brightening in the models (Romanou et al 2007, Bodas-Salcedo et al 2008, Wild 2009b, Ruckstuhl and Norris 2009) could have affected the simulations of the surface radiation balance. While the response to the gradually increasing greenhouse gases in the thermal component of the surface energy balance is well understood and adequately simulated, much more uncertainties are apparent in the solar component. Since the hydrological cycle may respond particularly sensitive to non-homogeneous short-living types of solar forcings such as aerosols (see discussion above), the identification of the origins of the uncertainties in the solar forcings is of primary importance for predicting future changes. Uncertainties may be related to weaknesses in three areas: (1) Deficiencies in the parameterization of the relevant processes: aerosol-cloud interactions are still poorly understood and related model representations are subject to considerable uncertainties or entirely neglected. Note that only few models include the effects of aerosols on clouds, which dominate the hydrological response as shown in Romanou et al (2007). Furthermore, many models only consider the temporal variations in scattering sulphur aerosol and neglect changes in other aerosol types such as absorbing black carbon or desert dust, which would enhance the degree of freedom of aerosol-cloud interactions and change the stability of the atmosphere. (2) Uncertainties in the highly variable spatial and temporal distributions of global aerosol fields used in the 20th century simulations as e.g. shown by Ruckstuhl and Norris (2009). Also, most models still prescribe fixed spatial aerosol burdens in the atmosphere, rather than aerosol and aerosol precursor emission fields, which could enhance the degree of freedom of the global aerosol system. (3) Shortcomings in the representation of the natural variability in atmosphere/ocean exchanges of energy and water that result in variations of convection and consequently in cloudiness and humidity. For example state-of-the-art climate models do not realistically reproduce decadal variations in the ocean atmosphere system such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) or El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that may have significant effects. Conclusions To summarize, we emphasize the prominent role of the surface radiation balance as a key determinant of the intensity of the global hydrological cycle. There are indications that the surface radiation balance underwent significant decadal variations during the 20th century, which are reflected in the variations of the intensity of the global hydrological cycle. The current generation of climate models does not show such strong variability in either of these quantities. Here we point to the inadequate representation of surface solar dimming and brightening as a potential cause of these model deficiencies. This is further supported by the recent evidence that solar forcings are more effective in altering the intensity of the global hydrological cycle than their thermal (greenhouse-gas-forced) counterparts. Improved knowledge of variations of the components of the surface radiation balance as well as their underlying forcing factors are therefore key to our understanding of past, present and future variations in the intensity of the hydrological cycle. The recent implementation of advanced space-borne and surface-based monitoring systems should allow for more rigorous constraints of the radiative drivers behind the hydrological cycle. Together with improved modelling capabilities, including sophisticated interactive aerosol and cloud microphysics schemes, these advances should result in more realistic simulations and predictions of the intensity of the hydrological cycle in the near future. Acknowledgements Particular thanks go to Professor Christoph Schär for his valuable input to the manuscript and for his support. Richard Allan's comments on the manuscript were highly appreciated. This study is part of the National Centre for Competence in Climate Research (NCCR Climate) project HYCLIM (Intensification of the water cycle: scenarios, processes and extremes) supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation, and was further sponsored by National Aeronautics and Space Agency Modeling Analysis and Prediction Program NASA-MAP grant NNX09AV16G. We acknowledge the international modeling groups for providing their data for analysis, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) for collecting and archiving the model data, the JSC/CLIVAR Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) and their Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and Climate Simulation Panel for organizing the model data analysis activity, and the IPCC WG1 TSU for technical support. The IPCC Data Archive at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is supported by the Office of Science, US Department of Energy. References Allan R P 2007 Improved simulation of water vapour and clear-sky radiation using 24-hour forecasts from ERA40 Tellus A 59 336-43 Allan R P and Soden B J 2007 Large discrepancy between observed and simulated precipitation trends Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 L18705 Allan R P and Soden B J 2008 Precipitation extremes and the amplification of atmospheric warming Science 321 1481-4 Allen M R and Ingram W 2002 Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle Nature 419 224-32 Andrews T, Forster P M and Gregory J M 2009 A surface energy perspective on climate change J. Climate 22 2557-70 Baumgartner A and Reichel E 1975 The World Water Balance: Mean Annual Global, Continental and Maritime Precipitation, Evaporation and Runoff (Amsterdam: Elsevier) 179 pp Bodas-Salcedo A, Ringer M A and Jones A 2008 Evaluation of the surface radiation budget in the atmospheric component of the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1) J. Climate 21 4723-48 Gilgen H, Wild M and Ohmura A 1998 Means and trends of shortwave irradiance at the surface estimated from GEBA J. Climate 11 2042-61 Hansen J et al 2005 Earth's energy imbalance: confirmation and implications Science 308 1431-5 IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed S Solomon, D Qin, M Manning, Z Chen, M Marquis, K B Averyt, M Tignor and H L Miller (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) 996 pp Jonkman S N 2005 Global perspectives on loss of human life caused by floods Natural Hazards 34 151-75 Lambert F H and Webb M J 2008 Dependency of global mean precipitation on surface temperature Geophys. Res. Lett. 35 L16706 Liepert B G 2002 Observed reductions of surface solar radiation at sites in the United States and worldwide from 1961 to 1990 Geophy. Res. Lett. 29 1421 Liepert B G 2010 The physical concept of climate forcing Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews—Climate Change submitted Liepert B G, Feichter J, Lohmann U and Roeckner E 2004 Can aerosols spin down the water cycle in a warmer and moister world? Geophys. Res. Lett. 31 L06207 Liepert B G and Previdi M 2009 Do models and observations disagree on the rainfall response to global warming? J. Climate 22 3156-66 Ohmura A and Wild M 2002 Is the hydrological cycle accelerating? Science 298 1345-6 Ramanathan V, Crutzen P J, Kiehl J T and Rosenfeld D 2001 Aerosol, climate and the hydrological cycle Science 294 2119-24 Romanou A, Liepert B, Schmidt G A, Rossow W B, Ruedy R A and Zhang Y 2007 20th century changes in surface solar irradiance in simulations and observations Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 L05713 Peterson T C and Vose R S 1997 An overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network temperature database Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 78 2837-49 Philipona R, Dürr B, Marty C, Ohmura A and Wild M 2004 Radiative forcing—measured at Earth's surface—corroborate the increasing greenhouse effect Geophys. Res. Lett. 31 L03202 Richter I and Xie S-P 2008 Muted precipitation increase in global warming simulations: a surface evaporation perspective J. Geophys. Res. 113 D24118 Ruckstuhl C and Norris J 2009 How do aerosol histories affect solar 'dimming' and 'brightening' over Europe? IPCC-AR4 models versus observations J. Geophys. Res. 114 D00D04 Stanhill G and Cohen S 2001 Global dimming: a review of the evidence for a widespread and significant reduction in global radiation Agri. Forest Meteorol. 107 255-78 Streets D G, Yan F, Chin M, Diehl T, Mahowald N, Schultz M, Wild M, Wu Y and Yu C 2009 Discerning human and natural signatures in regional aerosol trends, 1980-2006 J. Geophys. Res. 114 D00D18 Trenberth K E et al 2007 Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed S Solomon, D Qin, M Manning, Z Chen, M Marquis, K B Averyt, M Tignor and H L Miller (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Wentz F J, Ricciardulli L, Hilburn K and Mears C 2007 How much more rain will global warming bring? Science 317 233-35 Wild M 2009a Global dimming and brightening: a review J. Geophys. Res. 114 D00D16 Wild M 2009b How well do IPCC-AR4/CMIP3 climate models simulate global dimming/brightening and twentieth- century daytime and nighttime warming? J. Geophys. Res. 114 D00D11 Wild M, Grieser J and Schär C 2008 Combined surface solar brightening and increasing greenhouse effect support recent intensification of the global land-based hydrological cycle Geophys. Res. Lett. 35 L17706 Wild M, Ohmura A, Gilgen H and Rosenfeld D 2004 On the consistency of trends in radiation and temperature records and implications for the global hydrological cycle Geophys. Res. Lett. 31 L11201 Wild M et al 2005 From dimming to brightening: decadal changes in surface solar radiation Science 308 847-50 Yang F, Kumar A, Schlesinger M E and Wang W 2003 Intensity of hydrological cycles in warmer climates J. Climate 16 2419-23 Zhang X et al 2007 Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends Nature 448 461-5

Widespread land surface wind decline in the Northern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vautard, R.; Cattiaux, J.; Yiou, P.; Thépaut, J.-N.; Ciais, P.

2010-09-01

The decline of surface wind observed in many regions of the world is a potential source of concern for wind power electricity generation. It is also suggested as the main cause of decreasing pan evaporation. In China, a persistent and significant decrease of monsoon winds was observed in all seasons. Surface wind declines were also evidenced in several regions of the world (U.S., Australia, several European countries). Except over China, no clear explanation was given for the wind decrease in the regions studied. Whether surface winds decrease is due to changes in the global atmospheric circulation or its variability, in surface processes or to observational trends has therefore not been elucidated. The identification of the drivers of such a decline requires a global investigation of available surface and upper-air wind data, which has not been conducted so far. Here we use global datasets of in-situ wind measurements that contain surface weather stations wind data (hourly or three-hourly data acquisition time step) and rawinsonde vertical wind data profiles (monthly time step) prepared by the NCAR. A set of 822 worldwide surface stations with continuous wind records was selected after a careful elimination of stations with obvious breaks and large gaps. This dataset mostly covers the Northern mid latitudes over the period 1979-2008. Using this data set, we found that annual mean wind speeds have declined at 73% of the surface stations over the past 30 years. In the Northern Hemisphere, positive wind trends are found only in a few places. In Europe, Central Asia, Eastern Asia and in North America the annual mean surface wind speed has decreased on average at a rate of -2.9, -5.9, -4.2, and -1.8 %/decade respectively, i.e. a decrease of about 10% in 30 years and up to about 20% in Central Asia. These results are robust to changes in the station selection method and parameters. By contrast, upper-air winds observed from rawinsondes, geostrophic winds deduced from pressure gradients, and modeled winds from weather re-analyses do not exhibit any comparable stilling trends than at surface stations. For instance, large-scale circulation changes captured in the most recent European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast re-analysis (ERA-interim) can only explain only up to 30% of the Eurasian wind stilling. In addition, a significant amount of the slow-down could originate from a generalized increase in surface roughness, due for instance to forest growth and expansion, and urbanization. This hypothesis is supported by theoretical calculations combined with meso-scale model simulations. For future wind power energy resource, the part of wind decline due to land cover changes is easier to cope with than that due to global atmospheric circulation slow down.

Marine Cloud Brightening: regional applications to the weakening of hurricanes and reduction in coral bleaching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gadian, A.; Hauser, R.; Kleypas, J. A.; Latham, J.; Parkes, B.; Salter, S.

2013-12-01

This study examines the potential to cool ocean surface waters in regions of hurricane genesis and early development. This would be achieved by seeding, with copious quantities of seawater cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), low-level maritime stratocumulus clouds covering these regions or those at the source of incoming currents. Higher cloud droplet density would increase these clouds' reflectivity to incoming sunlight, and possibly their longevity. This approach is a more localized application of the Marine Cloud Brightening (MCB) geoengineering technique promoting global cooling. By utilizing a climate ocean/atmosphere coupled model, HadGEM1, and by judicious seeding of maritime stratocumulus clouds, we demonstrate that we may be able to significantly reduce sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in hurricane development regions. Thus artificial seeding may reduce hurricane intensity; but how well the magnitude of this effect is yet to be determined. Increases in coral bleaching events over the last few decades have been largely caused by rising SSTs, and continued warming is expected to cause even greater increases through this century. Using thr same Global Climate Model to examine the potential of MCB to cool oceanic surface waters in three coral reef provinces. Our simulations indicate that under doubled CO2 conditions, the substantial increases in coral bleaching conditions from current values in three reef regions (Caribbean, French Polynesia, and the Great Barrier Reef) were eliminated when MCB was applied, which reduced the SSTs at these sites roughly to their original values. In this study we also illustrate how even regional application of MCB can affect the planetary meridional heat flux and the reduction in poleward heat transfer. (a) Change in annual average sea surface temperature, Celsius, between the 2xCO2 and CONTROL simulations. (b) Change in annual average sea surface temperature, Celsius, between the CONTROL and 2xCO2+MCB simulations. The dashed black boxes in both panels represent the three coral reef regions. In the Southern north Atlantic, the warmer SSTs in (a) is reduced to the current "control" temperatures, weakening hurricane formation.

Recent changes in solar irradiance and infrared irradiance related with air temperature and cloudiness at the King Sejong Station, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Y.; Kim, J.; Cho, H.; Lee, B.

2006-12-01

The polar region play a critical role in the surface energy balance and the climate system of the Earth. The important question in the region is that what is the role of the Antarctic atmospheric heat sink of global climate. Thus, this study shows the trends of global solar irradiance, infrared irradiance, air temperature and cloudiness measured at the King Sejong station, Antarctica, during the period of 1996-2004 and determines their relationship and variability of the surface energy balance. Annual average of solar radiation and cloudiness is 81.8 Wm-2 and 6.8 oktas and their trends show the decrease of -0.24 Wm-2yr-1(-0.30 %yr-1) and 0.02 oktas yr-1(0.30 %yr-1). The change of solar irradiance is directly related to change of cloudiness and decrease of solar irradiance presents radiative cooling at the surface. Monthly mean infrared irradiance, air temperature and specific humidity shows the decrease of -2.11 Wm^{- 2}yr-1(-0.75 %yr-1), -0.07 'Cyr-1(-5.15 %yr-1) and -0.044 gkg-1yr-1(-1.42 %yr-1), respectively. Annual average of the infrared irradiance is 279.9 Wm-2 and correlated with the air temperature, specific humidity and cloudiness. A multiple regression model for estimation of the infrared irradiance using the components has been developed. Effects of the components on the infrared irradiance changes show 52 %, 19 % and 10 % for air temperature, specific humidity and cloudiness, respectively. Among the components, air temperature has a great influence on infrared irradiance. Despite the increase of cloudiness, the decrease in the infrared irradiance is due to the decrease of air temperature and specific humidity which have a cooling effect. Therefore, the net radiation of the surface energy balance shows radiative cooling of negative 11-24 Wm^{- 2} during winter and radiative warming of positive 32-83 Wm-2 during the summer. Thus, the amount of shortage and surplus at the surface is mostly balanced by turbulent flux of sensible and latent heat.

A method for estimating direct normal solar irradiation from satellite data for a tropical environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Janjai, Serm

In order to investigate a potential use of concentrating solar power technologies and select an optimum site for these technologies, it is necessary to obtain information on the geographical distribution of direct normal solar irradiation over an area of interest. In this work, we have developed a method for estimating direct normal irradiation from satellite data for a tropical environment. The method starts with the estimation of global irradiation on a horizontal surface from MTSAT-1R satellite data and other ground-based ancillary data. Then a satellite-based diffuse fraction model was developed and used to estimate the diffuse component of the satellite-derivedmore » global irradiation. Based on this estimated global and diffuse irradiation and the solar radiation incident angle, the direct normal irradiation was finally calculated. To evaluate its performance, the method was used to estimate the monthly average hourly direct normal irradiation at seven pyrheliometer stations in Thailand. It was found that values of monthly average hourly direct normal irradiation from the measurements and those estimated from the proposed method are in reasonable agreement, with a root mean square difference of 16% and a mean bias of -1.6%, with respect to mean measured values. After the validation, this method was used to estimate the monthly average hourly direct normal irradiation over Thailand by using MTSAT-1R satellite data for the period from June 2005 to December 2008. Results from the calculation were displayed as hourly and yearly irradiation maps. These maps reveal that the direct normal irradiation in Thailand was strongly affected by the tropical monsoons and local topography of the country. (author)« less

The Special Sensor Microwave Imager Wind Dataset: A Source of Quantitative Information for the Ocean-to-Land Advection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, J.; Ardizzone, J.; Atlas, R.; Demaree, G.; Huth, R.; Jaagus, J.; Koslowsky, D.; Przybylak, R.; Wos, A.; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)

1999-01-01

It is well recognized that advection from the North Atlantic has a profound effect on the climatic conditions in central Europe. A new dataset of the ocean-surface winds, derived from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager, SSM/1, is now available. This satellite instrument measures the wind speed, but not the direction. However, variational analysis developed at the Data Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, by combining the SSM/I measurements with wind vectors measured from ships, etc., produced global maps of the ocean surface winds suitable for climate analysis. From this SSM/I dataset, a specific index I(sub na) of the North Atlantic surface winds has been developed, which pertinently quantifies the low-level advection into central Europe. For a selected time-period, the index I(sub na) reports the average of the amplitude of the wind, averaging only the speed when the direction is from the southwest (when the wind is from another direction, the contribution counts to the average as zero speed). Strong correlations were found between February I(sub na) and the surface air temperatures in Europe 50-60 deg N. In the present study, we present the correlations between I(sub na) and temperature I(sub s), and also the sensitivity of T(sub s), to an increase in I(sub na), in various seasons and various regions. We specifically analyze the flow of maritime-air from the North Atlantic that produced two extraordinary warm periods: February 1990, and early-winter 2000/2001. The very cold December 2001 was clearly due to a northerly flow. Our conclusion is that the SSM/I dataset is very useful for providing insight to the forcing of climatic fluctuations in Europe.

Methanethiol Concentrations and Sea-Air Fluxes in the Subarctic NE Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiene, R. P.; Williams, T. E.; Esson, K.; Tortell, P. D.; Dacey, J. W. H.

2017-12-01

Exchange of volatile organic sulfur from the ocean to the atmosphere impacts the global sulfur cycle and the climate system and is thought to occur mainly via the gas dimethylsulfide (DMS). DMS is produced during degradation of the abundant phytoplankton osmolyte dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) but bacteria can also convert dissolved DMSP into the sulfur gas methanethiol (MeSH). MeSH has been difficult to measure in seawater because of its high chemical and biological reactivity and, thus, information on MeSH concentrations, distribution and sea-air fluxes is limited. We measured MeSH in the northeast subarctic Pacific Ocean in July 2016, along transects with strong phytoplankton abundance gradients. Water samples obtained with Niskin bottles were analyzed for MeSH by purge-and-trap gas chromatography. Depth profiles showed that MeSH concentrations were high near the surface and declined with depth. Surface waters (5 m depth) had an average MeSH concentration of 0.75 nM with concentrations reaching up to 3nM. MeSH concentrations were correlated (r = 0.47) with microbial turnover of dissolved DMSP which ranged up to 236 nM per day. MeSH was also correlated with total DMSP (r = 0.93) and dissolved DMS (r = 0.63), supporting the conclusion that DMSP was a major precursor of MeSH. Surface water MeSH:DMS concentration ratios averaged 0.19 and ranged up to 0.50 indicating that MeSH was a significant fraction of the volatile sulfur pool in surface waters. Sea-air fluxes of MeSH averaged 15% of the combined DMS+MeSH flux, therefore MeSH contributed an important fraction of the sulfur emitted to the atmosphere from the subarctic NE Pacific Ocean.

Energy, volatile production, and climatic effects of the Chicxulub Cretaceous/Tertiary impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pope, K. O.; Baines, K. H.; Ocampo, A. C.; Ivanov, B. A.

1997-01-01

A comprehensive analysis of volatiles in the Chicxulub impact strongly supports the hypothesis that impact-generated sulfate aerosols caused over a decade of global cooling, acid rain, and disruption of ocean circulation, which contributed to the mass extinction at the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary. The crater size, meteoritic content of the K/T boundary clay, and impact models indicate that the Chicxulub crater was formed by a short period comet or an asteroid impact that released 0.7-3.4 x 10(31) ergs of energy. Impact models and experiments combined with estimates of volatiles in the projectile and target rocks predict that over 200 gigatons (Gt) each of SO2 and water vapor, and over 500 Gt of CO2, were globally distributed in the stratosphere by the impact. Additional volatiles may have been produced on a global or regional scale that formed sulfate aerosols rapidly in cooler parts of the vapor plume, causing an early, intense pulse of sulfuric acid rain. Estimates of the conversion rate of stratospheric SO2 and water vapor to sulfate aerosol, based on volcanic production of sulfate aerosols, coupled with calculations of diffusion, coagulation, and sedimentation, demonstrate that the 200 Gt stratospheric SO2 and water vapor reservoir would produce sulfate aerosols for 12 years. These sulfate aerosols caused a second pulse of acid rain that was global. Radiative transfer modeling of the aerosol clouds demonstrates (1) that if the initial rapid pulse of sulfate aerosols was global, photosynthesis may have been shut down for 6 months and (2) that for the second prolonged aerosol cloud, solar transmission dropped 80% by the end of first year and remained 50% below normal for 9 years. As a result, global average surface temperatures probably dropped between 5 degrees and 31 degrees K, suggesting that global near-freezing conditions may have been reached. Impact-generated CO2 caused less than 1 degree K greenhouse warming and therefore was insignificant compare to the sulfate cooling. The magnitude of sulfate cooling depends largely upon the rate of ocean mixing as surface waters cool, sink, and are replaced by upwelling of deep ocean water. This upwelling apparently drastically altered ocean stratification and circulation, which may explain the global collapse of the delta 13C gradient between surface and deep ocean waters at the K/T boundary.

Improving the representation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) in the MOZART-4 global chemical transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmud, A.; Barsanti, K. C.

2012-12-01

The secondary organic aerosol (SOA) module in the Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4) has been updated by replacing existing two-product (2p) parameters with those obtained from two-product volatility basis set (2p-VBS) fits, and by treating SOA formation from the following volatile organic compounds (VOCs): isoprene, propene and lumped alkenes. Strong seasonal and spatial variations in global SOA distributions were demonstrated, with significant differences in the predicted concentrations between the base-case and updated model versions. The base-case MOZART-4 predicted annual average SOA of 0.36 ± 0.50 μg m-3 in South America, 0.31 ± 0.38 μg m-3 in Indonesia, 0.09 ± 0.05 μg m-3 in the USA, and 0.12 ± 0.07 μg m-3 in Europe. Concentrations from the updated versions of the model showed a~marked increase in annual average SOA. Using the updated set of parameters alone (MZ4-v1) increased annual average SOA by ~8%, ~16%, ~56%, and ~108% from the base-case in South America, Indonesia, USA, and Europe, respectively. Treatment of additional parent VOCs (MZ4-v2) resulted in an even more dramatic increase of ~178-406% in annual average SOA for these regions over the base-case. The increases in predicted SOA concentrations further resulted in increases in corresponding SOA contributions to annual average total aerosol optical depth (AOD) by <1% for MZ4-v1 and ~1-6% for MZ4-v2. Estimated global SOA production was ~6.6 Tg yr-1 and ~19.1 Tg yr-1 with corresponding burdens of ~0.24 Tg and ~0.59 Tg using MZ4-v1 and MZ4-v2, respectively. The SOA budgets predicted in the current study fall well within reported ranges for similar modeling studies, 6.7 to 96 Tg yr-1, but are lower than recently reported observationally-constrained values, 50 to 380 Tg yr-1. With MZ4-v2, simulated SOA concentrations at the surface were also in reasonable agreement with comparable modeling studies and observations. Concentrations of estimated organic aerosol (OA) at the surface, however, showed under-prediction in Europe and over-prediction in the Amazonian regions and Malaysian Borneo during certain months of the year. Overall, the updated version of MOZART-4, MZ4-v2, showed consistently better skill in predicting SOA and OA levels and spatial distributions as compared with unmodified MOZART-4. The MZ4-v2 updates may be particularly important when MOZART-4 output is used to generate boundary conditions for regional air quality simulations that require more accurate representation of SOA concentrations and distributions.

Analysis of weather changes in the region of Surabaya in 2015 and 2016 using water vapor data from GPS and Terra MODIS satellite image

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahyadi, M. N.; Audah, S.; Mutia, N.; Aliyan, S. A.

2017-07-01

Sea surface temperature conditions in the territorial waters of Indonesia can be used as one indicator of a lot or least the content of water vapor in the atmosphere. It is closely related to the process of cloud formation in the region of Indonesia. Surabaya is the capital of the Indonesia's second largest potential for the occurrence of global warming due to climate change around the region. Global warming has the consequence of occurrence of climate variability, with marked by changes in temperature, and rainfall, as well as runoff of water. Monitoring the space-based Global Positioning System (GPS) and remote sensing satellite data such as Terra MODIS can be used in the field of meteorology. That is to measured the level of water vapor globally, with the approach of the amount of precipitable water vapor (PWV) in the atmosphere layer. It can be seen humidity conditions and the potential occurrence of rainfall in an area. The PWV value obtained from GPS processing had range 25.13 mm - 32.87 mm; average value is 27.38 mm and standard deviation is 2.018 mm. Based on the diurnal variation of the PWV GPS indicates that the climatic conditions in the area of Surabaya in 2015 showed the dry season, this is because the average values of PWV pretty low that occurred in July-September. But in September 2015 the PWV value occurrence an increase in water vapor and can be estimated that in the next month will be approaching rainy season.

A reduction in the asymmetry of ENSO amplitude due to global warming: The role of atmospheric feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun

2017-08-01

This study analyzes a reduction in the asymmetry of El Niño Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude due to global warming in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. The multimodel-averaged Niño3 skewness during December-February season decreased approximately 40% in the RCP4.5 scenario compared to that in the historical simulation. The change in the nonlinear relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation is a key factor for understanding the reduction in ENSO asymmetry due to global warming. In the historical simulations, the background SST leading to the greatest precipitation sensitivity (SST for Maximum Precipitation Sensitivity, SST_MPS) occurs when the positive SST anomaly is located over the equatorial central Pacific. Therefore, an increase in climatological SST due to global warming weakens the atmospheric response during El Niño over the central Pacific. However, the climatological SST over this region in the historical simulation is still lower than the SST_MPS for the negative SST anomaly; therefore, a background SST increase due to global warming can further increase precipitation sensitivity. The atmospheric feedbacks during La Niña are enhanced and increase the La Niña amplitude due to global warming.

The significance of cloud-radiative forcing to the general circulation on climate time scales - A satellite interpretation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sohn, Byung-Ju; Smith, Eric A.

1992-01-01

This paper focuses on the role of cloud- and surface-atmosphere forcing on the net radiation balance and their potential impact on the general circulation at climate time scales. The globally averaged cloud-forcing estimates and cloud sensitivity values taken from various recent studies are summarized. It is shown that the net radiative heating over the tropics is principally due to high clouds, while the net cooling in mid- and high latitudes is dominated by low and middle clouds.

Evaluation of Greenland near surface air temperature datasets

DOE PAGES

Reeves Eyre, J. E. Jack; Zeng, Xubin

2017-07-05

Near-surface air temperature (SAT) over Greenland has important effects on mass balance of the ice sheet, but it is unclear which SAT datasets are reliable in the region. Here extensive in situ SAT measurements ( ∼  1400 station-years) are used to assess monthly mean SAT from seven global reanalysis datasets, five gridded SAT analyses, one satellite retrieval and three dynamically downscaled reanalyses. Strengths and weaknesses of these products are identified, and their biases are found to vary by season and glaciological regime. MERRA2 reanalysis overall performs best with mean absolute error less than 2 °C in all months. Ice sheet-average annual mean SAT frommore » different datasets are highly correlated in recent decades, but their 1901–2000 trends differ even in sign. Compared with the MERRA2 climatology combined with gridded SAT analysis anomalies, thirty-one earth system model historical runs from the CMIP5 archive reach  ∼  5 °C for the 1901–2000 average bias and have opposite trends for a number of sub-periods.« less

Evaluation of Greenland near surface air temperature datasets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reeves Eyre, J. E. Jack; Zeng, Xubin

Near-surface air temperature (SAT) over Greenland has important effects on mass balance of the ice sheet, but it is unclear which SAT datasets are reliable in the region. Here extensive in situ SAT measurements ( ∼  1400 station-years) are used to assess monthly mean SAT from seven global reanalysis datasets, five gridded SAT analyses, one satellite retrieval and three dynamically downscaled reanalyses. Strengths and weaknesses of these products are identified, and their biases are found to vary by season and glaciological regime. MERRA2 reanalysis overall performs best with mean absolute error less than 2 °C in all months. Ice sheet-average annual mean SAT frommore » different datasets are highly correlated in recent decades, but their 1901–2000 trends differ even in sign. Compared with the MERRA2 climatology combined with gridded SAT analysis anomalies, thirty-one earth system model historical runs from the CMIP5 archive reach  ∼  5 °C for the 1901–2000 average bias and have opposite trends for a number of sub-periods.« less

Analysis of linear electrode array EMG for assessment of hemiparetic biceps brachii muscles.

PubMed

Yao, Bo; Zhang, Xu; Li, Sheng; Li, Xiaoyan; Chen, Xiang; Klein, Cliff S; Zhou, Ping

2015-01-01

This study presents a frequency analysis of surface electromyogram (EMG) signals acquired by a linear electrode array from the biceps brachii muscles bilaterally in 14 hemiparetic stroke subjects. For different levels of isometric contraction ranging from 10 to 80% of the maximum voluntary contraction (MVC), the power spectra of 19 bipolar surface EMG channels arranged proximally to distally along the muscle fibers were examined in both paretic and contralateral muscles. It was found that across all stroke subjects, the median frequency (MF) and the mean power frequency (MPF), averaged from different surface EMG channels, were significantly smaller in the paretic muscle compared to the contralateral muscle at each of the matched percent MVC contractions. The muscle fiber conduction velocity (MFCV) was significantly slower in the paretic muscle than in the contralateral muscle. No significant correlation between the averaged MF, MPF, or MFCV vs. torque was found in both paretic and contralateral muscles. However, there was a significant positive correlation between the global MFCV and MF. Examination of individual EMG channels showed that electrodes closest to the estimated muscle innervation zones produced surface EMG signals with significantly higher MF and MPF than more proximal or distal locations in both paretic and contralateral sides. These findings suggest complex central and peripheral neuromuscular alterations (such as selective loss of large motor units, disordered control of motor units, increased motor unit synchronization, and atrophy of muscle fibers, etc.) which can collectively influence the surface EMG signals. The frequency difference with regard to the innervation zone also confirms the relevance of electrode position in surface EMG analysis.

Atmospheric Residence Times of Continental Aerosols.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balkanski, Yves Jacques

The global atmospheric distributions of ^{222}Rn and ^{210 }Pb are simulated with a three-dimensional model of atmospheric transport based on the meteorology of the NASA GISS^1>=neral circulation model. The short-lived radioactive gas ^ {222}Rn (half-life = 3.8d) is emitted almost exclusively from land, at a relatively uniform rate; hence it is an excellent tracer of continental influences. Lead -210 is produced by decay of ^{222} Rn and immediately condenses to preexisting aerosol surfaces. It provides an excellent measure of aerosol residence times in the atmosphere because its source is accurately defined by the ^{222} Rn distribution. Results from the three-dimensional model are compared to measurements of ^ {222}Rn and ^{210 }Pb atmospheric concentrations to evaluate model's long-range transport over oceanic regions and to study the deposition mechanisms of atmospheric aerosols. Model results for ^{222} Rn are used to examine the long-range transport of continental air over two selected oceanic regions, the subantartic Indian Ocean and the North Pacific. It is shown that fast transport of air from southern Africa causes substantial continental pollution at southern mid-latitudes, a region usually regarded as pristine. Air over the North Pacific is heavily impacted by continental influences year round, but the altitude at which the transport occurs varies seasonally. Observations of aerosols at island sites, which are commonly used as diagnostics of continental influences, may be misleading because they do not account for influences at high altitude and because aerosols are efficiently scavenged by deposition during transport. The study of ^{210}Pb focuses on defining the residence times of submicron aerosols in the troposphere. Scavenging in wet convective updrafts is found to provide the dominant sink on a global scale. The globally averaged residence time for ^{210 }Pb-containing aerosols in the troposphere is 7 days. The average increase in residence time with altitude is from 4 days near the surface to 25 days near the tropopause. Hence, aerosols produced in the upper troposphere can be transported on a global scale. Residence times averaged over the tropospheric column vary geographically from less than 2 days in rainy regions to more than 30 days in dry regions. In particular, aerosols produced by biomass burning over central Africa during the dry season might affect large areas over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, with possible implications for weather and climate. ftn ^1GISS: Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York.

Soil Moisture Sensing Using Spaceborne GNSS Reflections: Comparison of CYGNSS Reflectivity to SMAP Soil Moisture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chew, C. C.; Small, E. E.

2018-05-01

This paper quantifies the relationship between forward scattered L-band Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals, recorded by the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) constellation and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) soil moisture (SM). Although designed for tropical ocean surface wind sensing, the CYGNSS receivers also record GNSS reflections over land. The CYGNSS observations of reflection power are compared to SMAP SM between March 2017 and February 2018. A strong, positive linear relationship exists between changes in CYGNSS reflectivity and changes in SMAP SM, but not between the absolute magnitudes of the two observations. The sensitivity of CYGNSS reflectivity to SM varies spatially and can be used to convert reflectivity to estimates of SM. The unbiased root-mean-square difference between daily averaged CYGNSS-derived SM and SMAP SM is 0.045 cm3/cm3 and is similarly low between CYGNSS and in situ SM. These results show that CYGNSS, and future GNSS reflection missions, could provide global SM observations.

The surface of the ice-age Earth.

PubMed

1976-03-19

In the Northern Hemisphere the 18,000 B.P. world differed strikingly from the present in the huge land-based ice sheets, reaching approximately 3 km in thickness, and in a dramatic increase in the extent of pack ice and marine-based ice sheets. In the Southern Hemisphere the most striking contrast was the greater extent of sea ice. On land, grasslands, steppes, and deserts spread at the expense of forests. This change in vegetation, together with extensive areas of permanent ice and sandy outwash plains, caused an increase in global surface albedo over modern values. Sea level was lower by at least 85 m. The 18,000 B.P. oceans were characterized by: (i) marked steepening of thermal gradients along polar frontal systems, particularly in the North Atlantic and Antarctic; (ii) an equatorward displacement of polar frontal systems; (iii) general cooling of most surface waters, with a global average of -2.3 degrees C; (iv) increased cooling and up-welling along equatorial divergences in the Pacific and Atlantic; (v) low temperatures extending equatorward along the western coast of Africa, Australia, and South America, indicating increased upwelling and advection of cool waters; and (vi) nearly stable positions and temperatures of the central gyres in the subtropical Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans.

Terrestrial ozone depletion due to a Milky Way gamma-ray burst

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Brian C.

Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRBs) are short, incredibly powerful astrophysical events which produce a flux of radiation detectable across the observable universe. A GRB within our own galaxy could cause major damage to the Earth's biosphere. Rate estimates suggest that at least one GRB has occurred within a dangerous range (about 2 kpc) in the last billion years. The gamma radiation from such a burst would quickly deplete much of the Earth's protective ozone layer, allowing an increase in solar UVB radiation reaching the surface. This radiation is harmful to life, causing sunburn and damaging DNA. In addition, NO 2 produced in the atmosphere would cause a decrease in visible sunlight reaching the surface and could cause global cooling. Nitric acid rain could stress portions of the biosphere, but the increased nitrate deposition could be helpful to land plants. We have used a two-dimensional atmospheric model to investigate the effects on the Earth's atmosphere of a GRB. We have simulated bursts delivering a range of fluences, at various latitudes, at the equinoxes and solstices, and at different times of day. We have computed DNA damage caused by increased solar UVB radiation, reduction in solar visible light due to NO 2 opacity; and deposition of nitrates through rainout of HNO 3 . For a "typical" burst in the last billion years, we find globally averaged ozone depletion up to 38%. Localized depletion reaches as much as 74%. Significant global depletion (at least 10%) persists up to about 7 years after the burst. Our results depend strongly on time of year and latitude over which the burst occurs. We find DNA damage of up to 16 times the normal annual global average, with greatest damage occurring at low to mid latitudes. We find reductions in visible sunlight of a few percent, primarily in the polar regions. Nitrate deposition similar to or slightly greater than that currently caused by lightning is also observed. We find support in our results for the hypothesis that the Late Ordovician mass extinction may have been initiated by a GRB and this connection is briefly discussed.

Gamma-Ray Bursts and the Earth: Exploration of Atmospheric, Biological, Climatic, and Biogeochemical Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Brian C.; Melott, Adrian L.; Jackman, Charles H.; Laird, Claude M.; Medvedev, Mikhail V.; Stolarski, Richard S.; Gehrels, Neil; Cannizzo, John K.; Hogan, Daniel P.; Ejzak, Larissa M.

2005-11-01

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are likely to have made a number of significant impacts on the Earth during the last billion years. The gamma radiation from a burst within a few kiloparsecs would quickly deplete much of the Earth's protective ozone layer, allowing an increase in solar UVB radiation reaching the surface. This radiation is harmful to life, damaging DNA and causing sunburn. In addition, NO2 produced in the atmosphere would cause a decrease in visible sunlight reaching the surface and could cause global cooling. Nitric acid rain could stress portions of the biosphere, but the increased nitrate deposition could be helpful to land plants. We have used a two-dimensional atmospheric model to investigate the effects on the Earth's atmosphere of GRBs delivering a range of fluences, at various latitudes, at the equinoxes and solstices, and at different times of day. We have estimated DNA damage levels caused by increased solar UVB radiation, reduction in solar visible light due to NO2 opacity, and deposition of nitrates through rainout of HNO3. For the ``typical'' nearest burst in the last billion years, we find globally averaged ozone depletion up to 38%. Localized depletion reaches as much as 74%. Significant global depletion (at least 10%) persists up to about 7 yr after the burst. Our results depend strongly on time of year and latitude over which the burst occurs. The impact scales with the total fluence of the GRB at the Earth but is insensitive to the time of day of the burst and its duration (1-1000 s). We find DNA damage of up to 16 times the normal annual global average, well above lethal levels for simple life forms such as phytoplankton. The greatest damage occurs at mid- to low latitudes. We find reductions in visible sunlight of a few percent, primarily in the polar regions. Nitrate deposition similar to or slightly greater than that currently caused by lightning is also observed, lasting several years. We discuss how these results support the hypothesis that the Late Ordovician mass extinction may have been initiated by a GRB.

Bacterial diversity in a glacier foreland of the high Arctic.

PubMed

Schütte, Ursel M E; Abdo, Zaid; Foster, James; Ravel, Jacques; Bunge, John; Solheim, Bjørn; Forney, Larry J

2010-03-01

Over the past 100 years, Arctic temperatures have increased at almost twice the global average rate. One consequence is the acceleration of glacier retreat, exposing new habitats that are colonized by microorganisms whose diversity and function are unknown. Here, we characterized bacterial diversity along two approximately parallel chronosequences in an Arctic glacier forefield that span six time points following glacier retreat. We assessed changes in phylotype richness, evenness and turnover rate through the analysis of 16S rRNA gene sequences recovered from 52 samples taken from surface layers along the chronosequences. An average of 4500 sequences was obtained from each sample by 454 pyrosequencing. Using parametric methods, it was estimated that bacterial phylotype richness was high, and that it increased significantly from an average of 4000 (at a threshold of 97% sequence similarity) at locations exposed for 5 years to an average of 7050 phylotypes per 0.5 g of soil at sites that had been exposed for 150 years. Phylotype evenness also increased over time, with an evenness of 0.74 for 150 years since glacier retreat reflecting large proportions of rare phylotypes. The bacterial species turnover rate was especially high between sites exposed for 5 and 19 years. The level of bacterial diversity present in this High Arctic glacier foreland was comparable with that found in temperate and tropical soils, raising the question whether global patterns of bacterial species diversity parallel that of plants and animals, which have been found to form a latitudinal gradient and be lower in polar regions compared with the tropics.

Abrupt Climate Change Caused by Global Fires from a Large Meteor Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bardeen, C.; Toon, O. B.; Garcia, R. R.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Wolf, E. T.

2015-12-01

Global or near-global fires like those that are thought to have occurred after the Chicxulub asteroid impact are associated with abrupt climate change and the K-Pg mass extinction event. Using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), a three-dimensional coupled climate model with interactive chemistry, we have simulated the climate response to global fires assuming a burden of 70,000 Tg, as estimated from the K-Pg layer sediments by Wolbach et al. (1988). Soot aerosols are lofted by solar heating and remain in the atmosphere for about 6 years, warming the stratosphere by more than 240 K and suppressing completely solar radiation at the surface for 2 years. Global average land surface temperatures cool by -28 K after 3 years and ocean temperatures by -11 K after 4 years. Precipitation is reduced by 80 % for 5 years, and the ozone column is reduced by 80 % for 4 years. The tropical tropopause cold point disappears for a few years, leading to water vapor mixing ratios of > 1000 ppmv in the stratosphere. There is a rapid recovery around year 6, when the soot is removed by wet deposition as stratospheric water condenses and precipitates, but this is followed by a peak in the UV Index in the tropics of over 40 before stratospheric ozone recovers. Ocean temperature cools by more than -2 K to a depth of 300 m, and sea ice develops in the Black Sea, Caspian Sea, and Baltic Sea. Global fires, two years of darkness, extreme surface cooling, significant ocean cooling, increases in sea ice extent and a large short-term increase in UV Index would have been catastrophic for many life forms. This work is the first step in an effort to simulate the climatic effects of all of the aerosols and gases that may have been generated by the Chicxulub impact in a model that has been configured for late-Cretaceous conditions to help assess the role of the Chicxulub impact in the K-Pg extinction.

Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing: Calculations and Measurements from the Tropospheric

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, P. B.; Hignett, P.; Stowe, L. L.; Livingston, J. M.; Kinne, S.; Wong, J.; Chan, K. Roland (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

Radiative forcing is defined as the change in the net (downwelling minus upwelling) radiative flux at a given level in the atmosphere. This net flux is the radiative power density available to drive climatic processes in the earth-atmosphere system below that level. Recent research shows that radiative forcing by aerosol particles is a major source of uncertainty in climate predictions. To reduce those uncertainties, TARFOX was designed to determine direct (cloud-free) radiative forcing by the aerosols in one of the world's major industrial pollution plumes--that flowing from the east coast of the US over the Atlantic Ocean. TARFOX measured a variety of aerosol radiative effects (including direct forcing) while simultaneously measuring the chemical, physical, and optical properties of the aerosol particles causing those effects. The resulting data sets permit a wide variety of tests of the consistency, or closure, among the measurements and the models that link them. Because climate predictions use the same or similar model components, closure tests help to assess and reduce prediction uncertainties. In this work we use the TARFOX-determined aerosol, gas, and surface properties to compute radiative forcing for a variety of aerosol episodes, with inadvisable optical depths ranging from 0.07 to 0.6. We calculate forcing by several techniques with varying degrees of sophistication, in part to test the range of applicability of simplified techniques--which are often the only ones feasible in climate predictions by general circulation models (GCMs). We then compare computed forcing to that determined from: (1) Upwelling and downwelling fluxes (0.3-0.7 mm and 0.7-3.0 mm) measured by radiometers on the UK MRF C-130. and (2) Daily average cloud-free absorbed solar and emitted thermal radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere derived from the AVHRR radiometer on the NOAA- 14 satellite. The calculations and measurements all yield aerosol direct radiative forcing in the range -50 to -190 W sq m per unit inadvisable optical depth. The magnitudes are about 15 to 100 times larger than the global-average direct forcing expected for the global-average sulfate aerosol optical depth of 0.04. The reasons for the larger forcing in TARFOX include the relatively large optical depths and the focus on cloud-free, daytime conditions over the dark ocean surface. These are the conditions that produce the actual major radiative forcing events that contribute to any global-average climate effect. Detailed comparisons of calculated and measured forcings for specific events are used for more refined tests of closure.

Comparison of SMOS and Aquarius Sea Surface Salinity and Analysis of Possible Causes for the Differences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dinnat, E. P.; Boutin, J.; Yin, X.; Le Vine, D. M.; Waldteufel, P.; Vergely, J. -L.

2014-01-01

Two ongoing space missions share the scientific objective of mapping the global Sea Surface Salinity (SSS), yet their observations show significant discrepancies. ESA's Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and NASA's Aquarius use L-band (1.4 GHz) radiometers to measure emission from the sea surface and retrieve SSS. Significant differences in SSS retrieved by both sensors are observed, with SMOS SSS being generally lower than Aquarius SSS, except for very cold waters where SMOS SSS is the highest overall. Figure 1 is an example of the difference between the SSS retrieved by SMOS and Aquarius averaged over one month and 1 degree in longitude and latitude. Differences are mostly between -1 psu and +1 psu (psu, practical salinity unit), with a significant regional and latitudinal dependence. We investigate the impact of the vicarious calibration and some components of the retrieval algorithm used by both mission on these differences.

Simulations of the general circulation of the Martian atmosphere. II - Seasonal pressure variations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pollack, James B.; Haberle, Robert M.; Murphy, James R.; Schaeffer, James; Lee, Hilda

1993-01-01

The CO2 seasonal cycle of the Martian atmosphere and surface is simulated with a hybrid energy balance model that incorporates dynamical and radiation information from a large number of general circulation model runs. This information includes: heating due to atmospheric heat advection, the seasonally varying ratio of the surface pressure at the two Viking landing sites to the globally averaged pressure, the rate of CO2 condensation in the atmosphere, and solar heating of the atmosphere and surface. The predictions of the energy balance model are compared with the seasonal pressure variations measured at the two Viking landing sites and the springtime retreat of the seasonal polar cap boundaries. The following quantities are found to have a strong influence on the seasonal pressures at the Viking landing sites: albedo of the seasonal CO2 ice deposits, emissivity of this deposit, atmospheric heat advection, and the pressure ratio.

Mariner 10 data analysis. 1: Scarps, ridges, troughs, and other lineaments on Mercury. 2: Geologic significance of photometric variations on Mercury. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dzurisin, D.

1977-01-01

Volcanic and tectonic implications of the surface morphology of Mercury are discussed. Mercurian scarps, ridges, troughs, and other lineaments are described and classified as planimetrically linear, arcuate, lobate, or irregular. A global pattern of lineaments is interpreted to reflect modification of linear crustal joints formed in response to stresses induced by tidal spindown. Large arcuate scarps on Mercury most likely record a period of compressional tectonism near the end of heavy bombardment. Shrinkage owing to planetary cooling is the mechanism preferred for their production. Measurements of local normal albedo are combined with computer-generated photometric maps of Mercury to provide constraints on the nature of surface materials and processes. If the mercurian surface obeys the average lunar photometric function, its normal albedo at 554 nm is .16 + or - .03.

Surface Modification and Surface - Subsurface Exchange Processes on Europa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, Cynthia B.; Molaro, Jamie; Hand, Kevin P.

2017-10-01

The surface of Jupiter’s moon Europa is modified by exogenic processes such as sputtering, gardening, radiolysis, sulfur ion implantation, and thermal processing, as well as endogenic processes including tidal shaking, mass wasting, and the effects of subsurface tectonic and perhaps cryovolcanic activity. New materials are created or deposited on the surface (radiolysis, micrometeorite impacts, sulfur ion implantation, cryovolcanic plume deposits), modified in place (thermal segregation, sintering), transported either vertically or horizontally (sputtering, gardening, mass wasting, tectonic and cryovolcanic activity), or lost from Europa completely (sputtering, plumes, larger impacts). Some of these processes vary spatially, as visible in Europa’s leading-trailing hemisphere brightness asymmetry.Endogenic geologic processes also vary spatially, depending on terrain type. The surface can be classified into general landform categories that include tectonic features (ridges, bands, cracks); disrupted “chaos-type” terrain (chaos blocks, matrix, domes, pits, spots); and impact craters (simple, complex, multi-ring). The spatial distribution of these terrain types is relatively random, with some differences in apex-antiapex cratering rates and latitudinal variation in chaos vs. tectonic features.In this work, we extrapolate surface processes and rates from the top meter of the surface in conjunction with global estimates of transport and resurfacing rates. We combine near-surface modification with an estimate of surface-subsurface (and vice versa) transport rates for various geologic terrains based on an average of proposed formation mechanisms, and a spatial distribution of each landform type over Europa’s surface area.Understanding the rates and mass balance for each of these processes, as well as their spatial and temporal variability, allows us to estimate surface - subsurface exchange rates over the average surface age (~50myr) of Europa. Quantifying the timescale and volume of transported material will yield insight on whether such a process may provide fuel to sustain a biosphere in Europa’s subsurface ocean, which is relevant to searches for life by a future mission such as a potential Europa Lander.

Surface Modification and Surface - Subsurface Exchange Processes on Europa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, C. B.; Molaro, J.; Hand, K. P.

2017-12-01

The surface of Jupiter's moon Europa is modified by exogenic processes such as sputtering, gardening, radiolysis, sulfur ion implantation, and thermal processing, as well as endogenic processes including tidal shaking, mass wasting, and the effects of subsurface tectonic and perhaps cryovolcanic activity. New materials are created or deposited on the surface (radiolysis, micrometeorite impacts, sulfur ion implantation, cryovolcanic plume deposits), modified in place (thermal segregation, sintering), transported either vertically or horizontally (sputtering, gardening, mass wasting, tectonic and cryovolcanic activity), or lost from Europa completely (sputtering, plumes, larger impacts). Some of these processes vary spatially, as visible in Europa's leading-trailing hemisphere brightness asymmetry. Endogenic geologic processes also vary spatially, depending on terrain type. The surface can be classified into general landform categories that include tectonic features (ridges, bands, cracks); disrupted "chaos-type" terrain (chaos blocks, matrix, domes, pits, spots); and impact craters (simple, complex, multi-ring). The spatial distribution of these terrain types is relatively random, with some differences in apex-antiapex cratering rates and latitudinal variation in chaos vs. tectonic features. In this work, we extrapolate surface processes and rates from the top meter of the surface in conjunction with global estimates of transport and resurfacing rates. We combine near-surface modification with an estimate of surface-subsurface (and vice versa) transport rates for various geologic terrains based on an average of proposed formation mechanisms, and a spatial distribution of each landform type over Europa's surface area. Understanding the rates and mass balance for each of these processes, as well as their spatial and temporal variability, allows us to estimate surface - subsurface exchange rates over the average surface age ( 50myr) of Europa. Quantifying the timescale and volume of transported material will yield insight on whether such a process may provide fuel to sustain a biosphere in Europa's subsurface ocean, which is relevant to searches for life by a future mission such as a potential Europa Lander.

Fire-induced albedo change and surface radiative forcing in sub-Saharan Africa savanna ecosystems: Implications for the energy balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dintwe, Kebonye; Okin, Gregory S.; Xue, Yongkang

2017-06-01

Surface albedo is a critical parameter that controls surface energy balance. In dryland ecosystems, fires play a significant role in decreasing surface albedo, resulting in positive radiative forcing. Here we investigate the long-term effect of fire on surface albedo. We devised a method to calculate short-, medium-, and long-term effect of fire-induced radiative forcing and their relative effects on energy balance. We used Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data in our analysis, covering different vegetation classes in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Our analysis indicated that mean short-term fire-induced albedo change in SSA was -0.022, -0.035, and -0.041 for savannas, shrubland, and grasslands, respectively. At regional scale, mean fire-induced albedo change in savannas was -0.018 and -0.024 for northern sub-Saharan of Africa and the southern hemisphere Africa, respectively. The short-term mean fire-induced radiative forcing in burned areas in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) was 5.41 W m-2, which contributed continental and global radiative forcings of 0.25 and 0.058 W m-2, respectively. The impact of fire in surface albedo has long-lasting effects that varies with vegetation type. The long-term energetic effects of fire-induced albedo change and associated radiative forcing were, on average, more than 19 times greater across SSA than the short-term effects, suggesting that fires exerted far more radiative forcing than previously thought. Taking into account the actual duration of fire's effect on surface albedo, we conclude that the contribution of SSA fires, globally and throughout the year, is 0.12 W m-2. These findings provide crucial information on possible impact of fire on regional climate variability.

Contribution of fungi to primary biogenic aerosols in the atmosphere: wet and dry discharged spores, carbohydrates, and inorganic ions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elbert, W.; Taylor, P. E.; Andreae, M. O.; Pöschl, U.

2007-09-01

Biogenic aerosols play important roles in atmospheric chemistry physics, the biosphere, climate, and public health. Here, we show that fungi which actively discharge their spores with liquids into the air, in particular actively wet spore discharging Ascomycota (AAM) and actively wet spore discharging Basidiomycota (ABM), are a major source of primary biogenic aerosol particles and components. We present the first estimates for the global average emission rates of fungal spores. Measurement results and budget calculations based on investigations in Amazonia (Balbina, Brazil, July 2001) indicate that the spores of AAM and ABM may account for a large proportion of coarse particulate matter in tropical rainforest regions during the wet season (0.7-2.3 μg m-3). For the particle diameter range of 1-10 μm, the estimated proportions are ~25% during day-time, ~45% at night, and ~35% on average. For the sugar alcohol mannitol, the budget calculations indicate that it is suitable for use as a molecular tracer for actively wet discharged basidiospores (ABS). ABM emissions seem to account for most of the atmospheric abundance of mannitol (10-68 ng m-3), and can explain the observed diurnal cycle (higher abundance at night). ABM emissions of hexose carbohydrates might also account for a significant proportion of glucose and fructose in air particulate matter (7-49 ng m-3), but the literature-derived ratios are not consistent with the observed diurnal cycle (lower abundance at night). AAM emissions appear to account for a large proportion of potassium in air particulate matter over tropical rainforest regions during the wet season (17-43 ng m-3), and they can also explain the observed diurnal cycle (higher abundance at night). The results of our investigations and budget calculations for tropical rainforest aerosols are consistent with measurements performed at other locations. Based on the average abundance of mannitol reported for extratropical continental boundary layer air (~25 ng m-3), we have also calculated a value of ~17 Tg yr-1 as a first estimate for the global average emission rate of ABS over land surfaces, which is consistent with the typically observed concentrations of ABS (~10³-104 m-3; ~0.1-1 μg m-3). The global average atmospheric abundance and emission rate of total fungal spores, including wet and dry discharged species, are estimated to be higher by a factor of about three, i.e. 1 μg m-3 and ~50 Tg yr-1. Comparisons with estimated rates of emission and formation of other major types of organic aerosol (~47 Tg yr-1 of anthropogenic primary organic aerosol; 12-70 Tg yr-1 of secondary organic aerosol) indicate that emissions from fungi should be taken into account as a significant global source of organic aerosol. The effects of fungal spores and related chemical components might be particularly important in tropical regions, where both physicochemical processes in the atmosphere and biological activity at the Earth's surface are particularly intense, and where the abundance of fungal spores and related chemical compounds are typically higher than in extratropical regions.

Surface deformations as indicators of deep ebullition fluxes in a large northern peatland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Glaser, P.H.; Chanton, J.P.; Morin, P.; Rosenberry, D.O.; Siegel, D.I.; Ruud, O.; Chasar, L.I.; Reeve, A.S.

2004-01-01

Peatlands deform elastically during precipitation cycles by small (??3 cm) oscillations in surface elevation. In contrast, we used a Global Positioning System network to measure larger oscillations that exceeded 20 cm over periods of 4-12 hours during two seasonal droughts at a bog and fen site in northern Minnesota. The second summer drought also triggered 19 depressuring cycles in an overpressured stratum under the bog site. The synchronicity between the largest surface deformations and the depressuring cycles indicates that both phenomena are produced by the episodic release of large volumes of gas from deep semi-elastic compartments confined by dense wood layers. We calculate that the three largest surface deformations were associated with the release of 136 g CH4 m-2, which exceeds by an order of magnitude the annual average chamber fluxes measured at this site. Ebullition of gas from the deep peat may therefore be a large and previously unrecognized source of radiocarbon depleted methane emissions from northern peatlands. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Impacts of global, regional, and sectoral black carbon emission reductions on surface air quality and human mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anenberg, S. C.; Talgo, K.; Arunachalam, S.; Dolwick, P.; Jang, C.; West, J. J.

2011-04-01

As a component of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), black carbon (BC) is associated with premature human mortality. BC also affects climate by absorbing solar radiation and reducing planetary albedo. Several studies have examined the climate impacts of BC emissions, but the associated health impacts have been studied less extensively. Here, we examine the surface PM2.5 and premature mortality impacts of halving anthropogenic BC emissions globally, from eight world regions, and from three major economic sectors. We use a global chemical transport model, MOZART-4, to simulate PM2.5 concentrations and a health impact function to calculate premature cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths. We estimate that halving global anthropogenic BC emissions reduces outdoor population-weighted average PM2.5 by 542 ng m-3 (1.8%) and avoids 157 000 (95% confidence interval, 120 000-194 000) annual premature deaths globally, with the vast majority occurring within the source region. While most of these avoided deaths can be achieved by halving East Asian emissions (54%), followed by South Asian emissions (31%), South Asian emissions have 50% greater mortality impacts per unit BC emitted than East Asian emissions. Globally, the contribution of residential, industrial, and transportation BC emissions to PM2.5-related mortality is 1.3, 1.2, and 0.6 times each sector's contribution to anthropogenic BC emissions, owing to the degree of co-location with population. Impacts of residential BC emissions are underestimated since indoor PM2.5 exposure is excluded. We estimate ~8 times more avoided deaths when BC and organic carbon (OC) emissions are halved together, suggesting that these results greatly underestimate the full air pollution-related mortality benefits of BC mitigation strategies which generally decrease both BC and OC. Confidence in our results would be strengthened by reducing uncertainties in emissions, model parameterization of aerosol processes, grid resolution, and PM2.5 concentration-mortality relationships globally.

Increasing importance of precipitation variability on global livestock grazing lands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sloat, Lindsey L.; Gerber, James S.; Samberg, Leah H.; Smith, William K.; Herrero, Mario; Ferreira, Laerte G.; Godde, Cécile M.; West, Paul C.

2018-03-01

Pastures and rangelands underpin global meat and milk production and are a critical resource for millions of people dependent on livestock for food security1,2. Forage growth, which is highly climate dependent3,4, is potentially vulnerable to climate change, although precisely where and to what extent remains relatively unexplored. In this study, we assess climate-based threats to global pastures, with a specific focus on changes in within- and between-year precipitation variability (precipitation concentration index (PCI) and coefficient of variation of precipitation (CVP), respectively). Relating global satellite measures of vegetation greenness (such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) to key climatic factors reveals that CVP is a significant, yet often overlooked, constraint on vegetation productivity across global pastures. Using independent stocking data, we found that areas with high CVP support lower livestock densities than less-variable regions. Globally, pastures experience about a 25% greater year-to-year precipitation variation (CVP = 0.27) than the average global land surface area (0.21). Over the past century, CVP has generally increased across pasture areas, although both positive (49% of pasture area) and negative (31% of pasture area) trends exist. We identify regions in which livestock grazing is important for local food access and economies, and discuss the potential for pasture intensification in the context of long-term regional trends in precipitation variability.

Estimating regional methane surface fluxes: the relative importance of surface and GOSAT mole fraction measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, A.; Palmer, P. I.; Feng, L.; Boesch, H.; Cogan, A.; Parker, R.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Fraser, P. J.; Krummel, P. B.; Langenfelds, R. L.; O'Doherty, S.; Prinn, R. G.; Steele, L. P.; van der Schoot, M.; Weiss, R. F.

2013-06-01

We use an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), together with the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model, to estimate regional monthly methane (CH4) fluxes for the period June 2009-December 2010 using proxy dry-air column-averaged mole fractions of methane (XCH4) from GOSAT (Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite) and/or NOAA ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) and CSIRO GASLAB (Global Atmospheric Sampling Laboratory) CH4 surface mole fraction measurements. Global posterior estimates using GOSAT and/or surface measurements are between 510-516 Tg yr-1, which is less than, though within the uncertainty of, the prior global flux of 529 ± 25 Tg yr-1. We find larger differences between regional prior and posterior fluxes, with the largest changes in monthly emissions (75 Tg yr-1) occurring in Temperate Eurasia. In non-boreal regions the error reductions for inversions using the GOSAT data are at least three times larger (up to 45%) than if only surface data are assimilated, a reflection of the greater spatial coverage of GOSAT, with the two exceptions of latitudes >60° associated with a data filter and over Europe where the surface network adequately describes fluxes on our model spatial and temporal grid. We use CarbonTracker and GEOS-Chem XCO2 model output to investigate model error on quantifying proxy GOSAT XCH4 (involving model XCO2) and inferring methane flux estimates from surface mole fraction data and show similar resulting fluxes, with differences reflecting initial differences in the proxy value. Using a series of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) we characterize the posterior flux error introduced by non-uniform atmospheric sampling by GOSAT. We show that clear-sky measurements can theoretically reproduce fluxes within 10% of true values, with the exception of tropical regions where, due to a large seasonal cycle in the number of measurements because of clouds and aerosols, fluxes are within 15% of true fluxes. We evaluate our posterior methane fluxes by incorporating them into GEOS-Chem and sampling the model at the location and time of surface CH4 measurements from the AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment) network and column XCH4 measurements from TCCON (Total Carbon Column Observing Network). The posterior fluxes modestly improve the model agreement with AGAGE and TCCON data relative to prior fluxes, with the correlation coefficients (r2) increasing by a mean of 0.04 (range: -0.17 to 0.23) and the biases decreasing by a mean of 0.4 ppb (range: -8.9 to 8.4 ppb).

Estimating regional methane surface fluxes: the relative importance of surface and GOSAT mole fraction measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, A.; Palmer, P. I.; Feng, L.; Boesch, H.; Cogan, A.; Parker, R.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Fraser, P. J.; Krummel, P. B.; Langenfelds, R. L.; O'Doherty, S.; Prinn, R. G.; Steele, L. P.; van der Schoot, M.; Weiss, R. F.

2012-12-01

We use an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), together with the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model, to estimate regional monthly methane (CH4) fluxes for the period June 2009-December 2010 using proxy dry-air column-averaged mole fractions of methane (XCH4) from GOSAT (Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite) and/or NOAA ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) and CSIRO GASLAB (Global Atmospheric Sampling Laboratory) CH4 surface mole fraction measurements. Global posterior estimates using GOSAT and/or surface measurements are between 510-516 Tg yr-1, which is less than, though within the uncertainty of, the prior global flux of 529 ± 25 Tg yr-1. We find larger differences between regional prior and posterior fluxes, with the largest changes (75 Tg yr-1) occurring in Temperate Eurasia. In non-boreal regions the error reductions for inversions using the GOSAT data are at least three times larger (up to 45%) than if only surface data are assimilated, a reflection of the greater spatial coverage of GOSAT, with the two exceptions of latitudes > 60° associated with a data filter and over Europe where the surface network adequately describes fluxes on our model spatial and temporal grid. We use CarbonTracker and GEOS-Chem XCO2 model output to investigate model error on quantifying proxy GOSAT XCH4 (involving model XCO2) and inferring methane flux estimates from surface mole fraction data and show similar resulting fluxes, with differences reflecting initial differences in the proxy value. Using a series of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) we characterize the posterior flux error introduced by non-uniform atmospheric sampling by GOSAT. We show that clear-sky measurements can theoretically reproduce fluxes within 5% of true values, with the exception of South Africa and Tropical South America where, due to a large seasonal cycle in the number of measurements because of clouds and aerosols, fluxes are within 17% and 19% of true fluxes, respectively. We evaluate our posterior methane fluxes by incorporating them into GEOS-Chem and sampling the model at the location and time of independent surface CH4 measurements from the AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment) network and column XCH4 measurements from TCCON (Total Carbon Column Observing Network). The posterior fluxes modestly improve the model agreement with AGAGE and TCCON data relative to prior fluxes, with the correlation coefficients (r2) increasing by a mean of 0.04 (range: -0.17, 0.23) and the biases decreasing by a mean of 0.4 ppb (range: -8.9, 8.4 ppb).

Global ozone and air quality: a multi-model assessment of risks to human health and crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellingsen, K.; Gauss, M.; van Dingenen, R.; Dentener, F. J.; Emberson, L.; Fiore, A. M.; Schultz, M. G.; Stevenson, D. S.; Ashmore, M. R.; Atherton, C. S.; Bergmann, D. J.; Bey, I.; Butler, T.; Drevet, J.; Eskes, H.; Hauglustaine, D. A.; Isaksen, I. S. A.; Horowitz, L. W.; Krol, M.; Lamarque, J. F.; Lawrence, M. G.; van Noije, T.; Pyle, J.; Rast, S.; Rodriguez, J.; Savage, N.; Strahan, S.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Wild, O.

2008-02-01

Within ACCENT, a European Network of Excellence, eighteen atmospheric models from the U.S., Europe, and Japan calculated present (2000) and future (2030) concentrations of ozone at the Earth's surface with hourly temporal resolution. Comparison of model results with surface ozone measurements in 14 world regions indicates that levels and seasonality of surface ozone in North America and Europe are characterized well by global models, with annual average biases typically within 5-10 nmol/mol. However, comparison with rather sparse observations over some regions suggest that most models overestimate annual ozone by 15-20 nmol/mol in some locations. Two scenarios from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and one from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) have been implemented in the models. This study focuses on changes in near-surface ozone and their effects on human health and vegetation. Different indices and air quality standards are used to characterise air quality. We show that often the calculated changes in the different indices are closely inter-related. Indices using lower thresholds are more consistent between the models, and are recommended for global model analysis. Our analysis indicates that currently about two-thirds of the regions considered do not meet health air quality standards, whereas only 2-4 regions remain below the threshold. Calculated air quality exceedances show moderate deterioration by 2030 if current emissions legislation is followed and slight improvements if current emissions reduction technology is used optimally. For the "business as usual" scenario severe air quality problems are predicted. We show that model simulations of air quality indices are particularly sensitive to how well ozone is represented, and improved accuracy is needed for future projections. Additional measurements are needed to allow a more quantitative assessment of the risks to human health and vegetation from changing levels of surface ozone.

Picophytoplankton biomass distribution in the global ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buitenhuis, E. T.; Li, W. K. W.; Vaulot, D.; Lomas, M. W.; Landry, M. R.; Partensky, F.; Karl, D. M.; Ulloa, O.; Campbell, L.; Jacquet, S.; Lantoine, F.; Chavez, F.; Macias, D.; Gosselin, M.; McManus, G. B.

2012-08-01

The smallest marine phytoplankton, collectively termed picophytoplankton, have been routinely enumerated by flow cytometry since the late 1980s during cruises throughout most of the world ocean. We compiled a database of 40 946 data points, with separate abundance entries for Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus and picoeukaryotes. We use average conversion factors for each of the three groups to convert the abundance data to carbon biomass. After gridding with 1° spacing, the database covers 2.4% of the ocean surface area, with the best data coverage in the North Atlantic, the South Pacific and North Indian basins, and at least some data in all other basins. The average picophytoplankton biomass is 12 ± 22 μg C l-1 or 1.9 g C m-2. We estimate a total global picophytoplankton biomass of 0.53-1.32 Pg C (17-39% Prochlorococcus, 12-15% Synechococcus and 49-69% picoeukaryotes), with an intermediate/best estimate of 0.74 Pg C. Future efforts in this area of research should focus on reporting calibrated cell size and collecting data in undersampled regions. http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.777385

Water, Energy, and Carbon with Artificial Neural Networks (WECANN): a statistically based estimate of global surface turbulent fluxes and gross primary productivity using solar-induced fluorescence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alemohammad, Seyed Hamed; Fang, Bin; Konings, Alexandra G.

A new global estimate of surface turbulent fluxes, latent heat flux (LE) and sensible heat flux ( H), and gross primary production (GPP) is developed using a machine learning approach informed by novel remotely sensed solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) and other radiative and meteorological variables. This is the first study to jointly retrieve LE, H, and GPP using SIF observations. The approach uses an artificial neural network (ANN) with a target dataset generated from three independent data sources, weighted based on a triple collocation (TC) algorithm. The new retrieval, named Water, Energy, and Carbon with Artificial Neural Networks (WECANN), provides estimatesmore » of LE, H, and GPP from 2007 to 2015 at 1° × 1° spatial resolution and at monthly time resolution. The quality of ANN training is assessed using the target data, and the WECANN retrievals are evaluated using eddy covariance tower estimates from the FLUXNET network across various climates and conditions. When compared to eddy covariance estimates, WECANN typically outperforms other products, particularly for sensible and latent heat fluxes. Analyzing WECANN retrievals across three extreme drought and heat wave events demonstrates the capability of the retrievals to capture the extent of these events. Uncertainty estimates of the retrievals are analyzed and the interannual variability in average global and regional fluxes shows the impact of distinct climatic events – such as the 2015 El Niño – on surface turbulent fluxes and GPP.« less

Water, Energy, and Carbon with Artificial Neural Networks (WECANN): a statistically based estimate of global surface turbulent fluxes and gross primary productivity using solar-induced fluorescence

DOE PAGES

Alemohammad, Seyed Hamed; Fang, Bin; Konings, Alexandra G.; ...

2017-09-20

A new global estimate of surface turbulent fluxes, latent heat flux (LE) and sensible heat flux ( H), and gross primary production (GPP) is developed using a machine learning approach informed by novel remotely sensed solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) and other radiative and meteorological variables. This is the first study to jointly retrieve LE, H, and GPP using SIF observations. The approach uses an artificial neural network (ANN) with a target dataset generated from three independent data sources, weighted based on a triple collocation (TC) algorithm. The new retrieval, named Water, Energy, and Carbon with Artificial Neural Networks (WECANN), provides estimatesmore » of LE, H, and GPP from 2007 to 2015 at 1° × 1° spatial resolution and at monthly time resolution. The quality of ANN training is assessed using the target data, and the WECANN retrievals are evaluated using eddy covariance tower estimates from the FLUXNET network across various climates and conditions. When compared to eddy covariance estimates, WECANN typically outperforms other products, particularly for sensible and latent heat fluxes. Analyzing WECANN retrievals across three extreme drought and heat wave events demonstrates the capability of the retrievals to capture the extent of these events. Uncertainty estimates of the retrievals are analyzed and the interannual variability in average global and regional fluxes shows the impact of distinct climatic events – such as the 2015 El Niño – on surface turbulent fluxes and GPP.« less

Global radiative effects of solid fuel cookstove aerosol emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Yaoxian; Unger, Nadine; Storelvmo, Trude; Harper, Kandice; Zheng, Yiqi; Heyes, Chris

2018-04-01

We apply the NCAR CAM5-Chem global aerosol-climate model to quantify the net global radiative effects of black and organic carbon aerosols from global and Indian solid fuel cookstove emissions for the year 2010. Our assessment accounts for the direct radiative effects, changes to cloud albedo and lifetime (aerosol indirect effect, AIE), impacts on clouds via the vertical temperature profile (semi-direct effect, SDE) and changes in the surface albedo of snow and ice (surface albedo effect). In addition, we provide the first estimate of household solid fuel black carbon emission effects on ice clouds. Anthropogenic emissions are from the IIASA GAINS ECLIPSE V5a inventory. A global dataset of black carbon (BC) and organic aerosol (OA) measurements from surface sites and aerosol optical depth (AOD) from AERONET is used to evaluate the model skill. Compared with observations, the model successfully reproduces the spatial patterns of atmospheric BC and OA concentrations, and agrees with measurements to within a factor of 2. Globally, the simulated AOD agrees well with observations, with a normalized mean bias close to zero. However, the model tends to underestimate AOD over India and China by ˜ 19 ± 4 % but overestimate it over Africa by ˜ 25 ± 11 % (± represents modeled temporal standard deviations for n = 5 run years). Without BC serving as ice nuclei (IN), global and Indian solid fuel cookstove aerosol emissions have net global cooling radiative effects of -141 ± 4 mW m-2 and -12 ± 4 mW m-2, respectively (± represents modeled temporal standard deviations for n = 5 run years). The net radiative impacts are dominated by the AIE and SDE mechanisms, which originate from enhanced cloud condensation nuclei concentrations for the formation of liquid and mixed-phase clouds, and a suppression of convective transport of water vapor from the lower troposphere to the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere that in turn leads to reduced ice cloud formation. When BC is allowed to behave as a source of IN, the net global radiative impacts of the global and Indian solid fuel cookstove emissions range from -275 to +154 mW m-2 and -33 to +24 mW m-2, with globally averaged values of -59 ± 215 and 0.3 ± 29 mW m-2, respectively. Here, the uncertainty range is based on sensitivity simulations that alter the maximum freezing efficiency of BC across a plausible range: 0.01, 0.05 and 0.1. BC-ice cloud interactions lead to substantial increases in high cloud (< 500 hPa) fractions. Thus, the net sign of the impacts of carbonaceous aerosols from solid fuel cookstoves on global climate (warming or cooling) remains ambiguous until improved constraints on BC interactions with mixed-phase and ice clouds are available.

Climate-driven uncertainties in modeling terrestrial gross primary production: a site level to global-scale analysis.

PubMed

Barman, Rahul; Jain, Atul K; Liang, Miaoling

2014-05-01

We used a land surface model to quantify the causes and extents of biases in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) due to the use of meteorological reanalysis datasets. We first calibrated the model using meteorology and eddy covariance data from 25 flux tower sites ranging from the tropics to the northern high latitudes and subsequently repeated the site simulations using two reanalysis datasets: NCEP/NCAR and CRUNCEP. The results show that at most sites, the reanalysis-driven GPP bias was significantly positive with respect to the observed meteorology-driven simulations. Notably, the absolute GPP bias was highest at the tropical evergreen tree sites, averaging up to ca. 0.45 kg C m(-2)  yr(-1) across sites (ca. 15% of site level GPP). At the northern mid-/high-latitude broadleaf deciduous and the needleleaf evergreen tree sites, the corresponding annual GPP biases were up to 20%. For the nontree sites, average annual biases of up to ca. 20-30% were simulated within savanna, grassland, and shrubland vegetation types. At the tree sites, the biases in short-wave radiation and humidity strongly influenced the GPP biases, while the nontree sites were more affected by biases in factors controlling water stress (precipitation, humidity, and air temperature). In this study, we also discuss the influence of seasonal patterns of meteorological biases on GPP. Finally, using model simulations for the global land surface, we discuss the potential impacts of site-level reanalysis-driven biases on the global estimates of GPP. In a broader context, our results can have important consequences on other terrestrial ecosystem fluxes (e.g., net primary production, net ecosystem production, energy/water fluxes) and reservoirs (e.g., soil carbon stocks). In a complementary study (Barman et al., ), we extend the present analysis for latent and sensible heat fluxes, thus consistently integrating the analysis of climate-driven uncertainties in carbon, energy, and water fluxes using a single modeling framework. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Air pollution and associated human mortality: the role of air pollutant emissions, climate change and methane concentration increases from the preindustrial period to present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Y.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L. W.; Mauzerall, D. L.

2013-02-01

Increases in surface ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (≤2.5 μm aerodynamic diameter, PM2.5) are associated with excess premature human mortalities. We estimate changes in surface O3 and PM2.5 from pre-industrial (1860) to present (2000) and the global present-day (2000) premature human mortalities associated with these changes. We extend previous work to differentiate the contribution of changes in three factors: emissions of short-lived air pollutants, climate change, and increased methane (CH4) concentrations, to air pollution levels and associated premature mortalities. We use a coupled chemistry-climate model in conjunction with global population distributions in 2000 to estimate exposure attributable to concentration changes since 1860 from each factor. Attributable mortalities are estimated using health impact functions of long-term relative risk estimates for O3 and PM2.5 from the epidemiology literature. We find global mean surface PM2.5 and health-relevant O3 (defined as the maximum 6-month mean of 1-h daily maximum O3 in a year) have increased by 8 ± 0.16 μg m-3 and 30 ± 0.16 ppbv (results reported as annual average ±standard deviation of 10-yr model simulations), respectively, over this industrial period as a result of combined changes in emissions of air pollutants (EMIS), climate (CLIM) and CH4 concentrations (TCH4). EMIS, CLIM and TCH4 cause global population-weighted average PM2.5 (O35) to change by +7.5 ± 0.19 μg m-3 (+25 ± 0.30 ppbv), +0.4 ± 0.17 μg m-3 (+0.5 ± 0.28 ppbv), and 0.04 ± 0.24 μg m-3 (+4.3 ± 0.33 ppbv), respectively. Total global changes in PM2.5 are associated with 1.5 (95% confidence interval, CI, 1.2-1.8) million cardiopulmonary mortalities and 95 (95% CI, 44-144) thousand lung cancer mortalities annually and changes in O3 are associated with 375 (95% CI, 129-592) thousand respiratory mortalities annually. Most air pollution mortality is driven by changes in emissions of short-lived air pollutants and their precursors (95% and 85% of mortalities from PM2.5 and O3 respectively). However, changing climate and increasing CH4 concentrations also contribute to premature mortality associated with air pollution globally (by up to 5% and 15%, respectively). In some regions, the contribution of climate change and increased CH4 together are responsible for more than 20% of the respiratory mortality associated with O3 exposure. We find the interaction between climate change and atmospheric chemistry has influenced atmospheric composition and human mortality associated with industrial air pollution. Our study highlights the benefits to air quality and human health of CH4 mitigation as a component of future air pollution control policy.

Atmospheric Diabatic Heating in Different Weather States and the General Circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rossow, William B.; Zhang, Yuanchong; Tselioudis, George

2016-01-01

Analysis of multiple global satellite products identifies distinctive weather states of the atmosphere from the mesoscale pattern of cloud properties and quantifies the associated diabatic heating/cooling by radiative flux divergence, precipitation, and surface sensible heat flux. The results show that the forcing for the atmospheric general circulation is a very dynamic process, varying strongly at weather space-time scales, comprising relatively infrequent, strong heating events by ''stormy'' weather and more nearly continuous, weak cooling by ''fair'' weather. Such behavior undercuts the value of analyses of time-averaged energy exchanges in observations or numerical models. It is proposed that an analysis of the joint time-related variations of the global weather states and the general circulation on weather space-time scales might be used to establish useful ''feedback like'' relationships between cloud processes and the large-scale circulation.

Limits on modes of lithospheric heat transport on Venus from impact crater density

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grimm, Robert E.; Solomon, Sean C.

1987-01-01

Based on the observed density of impact craters on the Venus surface obtained from Venera 15-16 radar images, a formalism to estimate the upper bounds on the contributions made to lithospheric heat transport by volcanism and lithospheric recycling is presented. The Venera 15-16 data, if representative of the entire planet, limit the average rate of volcanic resurfacing on Venus to less than 2 cu km/yr (corresponding to less than 1 percent of the global heat loss), and limit the rate of lithospheric recycling to less than 1.5 sq km/yr (and probably to less than 0.5 sq km/yr), corresponding to 25 percent (and to 9 percent) of the global heat loss. The present results indicate that heat loss at lithospheric levels in Venus is dominated by conduction.

Sources of springtime surface black carbon in the Arctic: an adjoint analysis for April 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Ling; Li, Qinbin; Henze, Daven K.; Tseng, Hsien-Liang; He, Cenlin

2017-08-01

We quantify source contributions to springtime (April 2008) surface black carbon (BC) in the Arctic by interpreting surface observations of BC at five receptor sites (Denali, Barrow, Alert, Zeppelin, and Summit) using a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) and its adjoint. Contributions to BC at Barrow, Alert, and Zeppelin are dominated by Asian anthropogenic sources (40-43 %) before 18 April and by Siberian open biomass burning emissions (29-41 %) afterward. In contrast, Summit, a mostly free tropospheric site, has predominantly an Asian anthropogenic source contribution (24-68 %, with an average of 45 %). We compute the adjoint sensitivity of BC concentrations at the five sites during a pollution episode (20-25 April) to global emissions from 1 March to 25 April. The associated contributions are the combined results of these sensitivities and BC emissions. Local and regional anthropogenic sources in Alaska are the largest anthropogenic sources of BC at Denali (63 % of total anthropogenic contributions), and natural gas flaring emissions in the western extreme north of Russia (WENR) are the largest anthropogenic sources of BC at Zeppelin (26 %) and Alert (13 %). We find that long-range transport of emissions from Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (also known as Jing-Jin-Ji), the biggest urbanized region in northern China, contribute significantly (˜ 10 %) to surface BC across the Arctic. On average, it takes ˜ 12 days for Asian anthropogenic emissions and Siberian biomass burning emissions to reach the Arctic lower troposphere, supporting earlier studies. Natural gas flaring emissions from the WENR reach Zeppelin in about a week. We find that episodic transport events dominate BC at Denali (87 %), a site outside the Arctic front, which is a strong transport barrier. The relative contribution of these events to surface BC within the polar dome is much smaller (˜ 50 % at Barrow and Zeppelin and ˜ 10 % at Alert). The large contributions from Asian anthropogenic sources are predominately in the form of chronic pollution (˜ 40 % at Barrow, 65 % at Alert, and 57 % at Zeppelin) on about a 1-month timescale. As such, it is likely that previous studies using 5- or 10-day trajectory analyses strongly underestimated the contribution from Asia to surface BC in the Arctic.

Pleistocene tropical Pacific temperature sensitivity to radiative greenhouse gas forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dyck, K. A.; Ravelo, A. C.

2011-12-01

How high will Earth's global average surface temperature ultimately rise as greenhouse gas concentrations increase in the future? One way to tackle this question is to compare contemporaneous temperature and greenhouse gas concentration data from paleoclimate records, while considering that other radiative forcing mechanisms (e.g. changes in the amount and distribution of incoming solar radiation associated with changes in the Earth's orbital configuration) also contribute to surface temperature change. Since the sensitivity of surface temperature varies with location and latitude, here we choose a central location representative of the west Pacific warm pool, far from upwelling regions or surface temperature gradients in order to minimize climate feedbacks associated with high-latitude regions or oceanic dynamics. The 'steady-state' or long-term temperature change associated with greenhouse gas radiative forcing is often labeled as equilibrium (or 'Earth system') climate sensitivity to the doubling of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. Climate models suggest that Earth system sensitivity does not change dramatically over times when CO2 was lower or higher than the modern atmospheric value. Thus, in our investigation of the changes in tropical SST, from the glacial to interglacial states when greenhouse gas forcing nearly doubled, we use Late Pleistocene paleoclimate records to constrain earth system sensitivity for the tropics. Here we use Mg/Ca-paleothermometry using the foraminifera G. ruber from ODP Site 871 from the past 500 kyr in the western Pacific warm pool to estimate tropical Pacific equilibrium climate sensitivity to a doubling of greenhouse gas concentrations to be ~4°C. This tropical SST sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing is ~1-2°C higher than that predicted by climate models of past glacial periods or future warming for the tropical Pacific. Equatorial Pacific SST sensitivity may be higher than predicted by models for a number of reasons. First, models may not be adequately representing long-term deep ocean feedbacks. Second, models may incorrectly parameterize tropical cloud (or other short-term) feedback processes. Lastly, either paleo-temperature or radiative forcing may have been incorrectly estimated (e.g. through calibration of paleoclimate evidence for temperature change). Since theory suggests that surface temperature in the high latitudes is more sensitive to radiative forcing changes than surface temperature in the tropics, the results of this study also imply that globally averaged Earth system sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations may be higher than most climate models predict.

On the Meaning of Feedback Parameter, Transient Climate Response, and the Greenhouse Effect: Basic Considerations and the Discussion of Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kramm, Gerhard

2010-07-01

In this paper we discuss the meaning of feedback parameter, greenhouse effect and transient climate response usually related to the globally averaged energy balance model of Schneider and Mass. After scrutinizing this model and the corresponding planetary radiation balance we state that (a) the this globally averaged energy balance model is flawed by unsuitable physical considerations, (b) the planetary radiation balance for an Earth in the absence of an atmosphere is fraught by the inappropriate assumption of a uniform surface temperature, the so-called radiative equilibrium temperature of about 255 K, and (c) the effect of the radiative anthropogenic forcing, considered as a perturbation to the natural system, is much smaller than the uncertainty involved in the solution of the model of Schneider and Mass. This uncertainty is mainly related to the empirical constants suggested by various authors and used for predicting the emission of infrared radiation by the Earth's skin. Furthermore, after inserting the absorption of solar radiation by atmospheric constituents and the exchange of sensible and latent heat between the Earth and the atmosphere into the model of Schneider and Mass the surface temperatures become appreciably lesser than the radiative equilibrium temperature. Moreover, neither the model of Schneider and Mass nor the Dines-type two-layer energy balance model for the Earth-atmosphere system, both contain the planetary radiation balance for an Earth in the absence of an atmosphere as an asymptotic solution, do not provide evidence for the existence of the so-called atmospheric greenhouse effect if realistic empirical data are used.

Multi-decadal to centennial scale variations in sea surface temperature off southeast Korea over the last 2000 yr

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K. E.; Park, W.; Bae, S. W.; Nam, S. I.

2016-12-01

We have reconstructed variations in sea surface temperature (SST) for the last 2000 yr by using the alkenone unsaturation index of marine sediments of cores TY2010 PC4 and ARA/ES 03-01 GC01 recovered from the southwestern part of the East Sea. The core site is chracterized by very high sedimentation rate so that a new high-resolution continuous SST record can be reconstructed with an average temporal resolution of 2-7 years. The core top alkenone temperature (20.5°C) is higher than the annual averaged in situ SST (18 °C) and it corresponds to those of summer to autumn. During the last 2000 yr, the alkenone temperatures exhibited fluctuations on multi-decadal to centennial time scales. The temperatures were relatively warm fluctuating between 19.6°C and 21°C on centennial time scale during the period of AD 0- 1200. There were two evident cold periods: AD 1200-1400 and AD 1600-1800. The lowest temperature (approximately 18°C) occurred at AD 1290 and AD 1650. The temperatures increased toward 20 centry, which is consistent with anthropogenic global warming. Results of singular spectrum analysis of the last 2000 yr SST record suggest that there is characteristic periodicity of 100 yr and 160 yr and 50-60 yr, which can be natural variability of climate system. In addition, a comparison of the SST record with global volcanic forcing data shows that volcanic events also can be correlated to the distinct cooling events.

Impacts of peatland forestation on regional climate conditions in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Yao; Markkanen, Tiina; Backman, Leif; Henttonen, Helena M.; Pietikäinen, Joni-Pekka; Laaksonen, Ari

2014-05-01

Climate response to anthropogenic land cover change happens more locally and occurs on a shorter time scale than the global warming due to increased GHGs. Over the second half of last Century, peatlands were vastly drained in Finland to stimulate forest growth for timber production. In this study, we investigate the biophysical effects of peatland forestation on near-surface climate conditions in Finland. For this, the regional climate model REMO, developed in Max Plank Institute (currently in Climate Service Center, Germany), provides an effective way. Two sets of 15-year climate simulations were done by REMO, using the historic (1920s; The 1st Finnish National Forest Inventory) and present-day (2000s; the 10th Finnish National Forest Inventory) land cover maps, respectively. The simulated surface air temperature and precipitation were then analyzed. In the most intensive peatland forestation area in Finland, the differences in monthly averaged daily mean surface air temperature show a warming effect around 0.2 to 0.3 K in February and March and reach to 0.5 K in April, whereas a slight cooling effect, less than 0.2 K, is found from May till October. Consequently, the selected snow clearance dates in model gridboxes over that area are advanced 0.5 to 4 days in the mean of 15 years. The monthly averaged precipitation only shows small differences, less than 10 mm/month, in a varied pattern in Finland from April to September. Furthermore, a more detailed analysis was conducted on the peatland forestation area with a 23% decrease in peatland and a 15% increase in forest types. 11 day running means of simulated temperature and energy balance terms, as well as snow depth were averaged over 15 years. Results show a positive feedback induced by peatland forestation between the surface air temperature and snow depth in snow melting period. This is because the warmer temperature caused by lower surface albedo due to more forest in snow cover period leads to a quicker and earlier snow melting. Meanwhile, surface albedo is reduced and consequently surface air temperature is increased. Additionally, the maximum difference from individual gridboxes in this area over 15 years of 11 day running means of daily mean surface air temperature reaches 2 K, which is four times as much as the maximum difference of 15-year regional average of that. This illustrates that the spring warming effect from peatland forestation in Finland is highly heterogeneous spatially and temporally.

Mercury compositional units inferred by MDIS. A comparison with the geology in support to the BepiColombo mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zambon, Francesca; Carli, Cristian; Galluzzi, Valentina; Capaccioni, Fabrizio; Filacchione, Gianrico; Giacomini, Lorenza; Massirioni, Matteo; Palumbo, Pasquale

2016-04-01

Mercury has been explored by two spatial missions. Mariner 10 acquired 45% of the surface during three Hermean flybys in 1974, giving a first close view of the planet. The recent MESSENGER mission globally mapped the planet and contributed to understand many unsolved issues about Mercury (Solomon et al., 2007). Nevertheless, even after MESSENGER, Mercury surface composition remains still unclear, and the correlation between morphology and compositional heterogeneity is not yet well understood. Thanks to the Mercury Dual Imaging System (MDIS), onboard MESSENGER, a global coverage of Mercury surface with variable spatial resolution has been done. MDIS is equipped with a Narrow Angle Camera (NAC), dedicated to the high-resolution study of the surface morphology and a Wide Angle Camera (WAC) with 12 filters useful to investigate the surface composition (Hawkins et al., 2007). Several works were focused on the different terrains present on Mercury, in particular, Denevi et al. (2013) observes that ~27% of Hermean surface is covered by volcanic origin smooth plains. These plains show differences in composition associated to spectral slope variation. High-reflectance red plains (HRP), with spectral slope greater than the average and low-reflectance blue plains (LBP), with spectral slope lesser than the average has been identified. This spectral variations could be correlated with different chemical composition. The X-Ray Spectrometer (XRS) data show that HRP-type areas are associated with a low-Fe basalt-like composition, while the LBP are also Fe poor but are rich in Mg/Si and Ca/Si and with lower Al/Si and are interpreted as more ultramafic (Nittler et al., 2011; Weider et al., 2012; Denevi at al., 2013, Weider et al., 2014). In these work we produce high resolution multicolor mosaic to found a possible link between morphology and composition. The spectral properties have been used to define the principal units of Mercury's surface or to characterize other globally distributed distinct spectral units. Therefore, integrating the spectral variability to a well defined morpho-stratigraphic (photo-interpreted) map will permit to improve the geologic map itself, defining sub-units, and associating spectral properties to analogue deposits. We are working to produce quadrangles color mosaics and high resolution color mosaics of smaller areas to define color products (common planetary geologic map) and obtain an "advanced" geologic map. The mapping process permits integration of different geological surface information to better understand the planet crust formation and evolution. Merging data from different instruments provides additional information about lithological composition, contributing to the construction of a more complete geological map (e.g., Giacomini et al., 2012). These work has been done in support of the BepiColombo Mission, which has an innovative Spectrometer and Imagers Integrated Observatory SYStem (SIMBIO-SYS). SIMBIO-SYS is composed by three instruments, the visible-near-infrared imaging spectrometer (VIHI), the high-resolution imager (HRIC) and the stereo imaging system (STC) which will be albe to improve the knowledge of Mercury surface form the geological and compositional point of view. This research was supported by the Italian Space Agency (ASI) within the SIMBIOSYS project (ASI-INAF agreement no. I/022/10/0)

A Quasi-Global Approach to Improve Day-Time Satellite Surface Soil Moisture Anomalies through the Land Surface Temperature Input

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parinussa, Robert M.; de Jeu, Richard A. M.; van Der Schalie, Robin; Crow, Wade T.; Lei, Fangni; Holmes, Thomas R. H.

2016-01-01

Passive microwave observations from various spaceborne sensors have been linked to the soil moisture of the Earth's surface layer. A new generation of passive microwave sensors are dedicated to retrieving this variable and make observations in the single theoretically optimal L-band frequency (1-2 GHz). Previous generations of passive microwave sensors made observations in a range of higher frequencies, allowing for simultaneous estimation of additional variables required for solving the radiative transfer equation. One of these additional variables is land surface temperature, which plays a unique role in the radiative transfer equation and has an influence on the final quality of retrieved soil moisture anomalies. This study presents an optimization procedure for soil moisture retrievals through a quasi-global precipitation-based verification technique, the so-called Rvalue metric. Various land surface temperature scenarios were evaluated in which biases were added to an existing linear regression, specifically focusing on improving the skills to capture the temporal variability of soil moisture. We focus on the relative quality of the day-time (01:30 pm) observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), as these are theoretically most challenging due to the thermal equilibrium theory, and existing studies indicate that larger improvements are possible for these observations compared to their night-time (01:30 am) equivalent. Soil moisture data used in this study were retrieved through the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM), and in line with theory, both satellite paths show a unique and distinct degradation as a function of vegetation density. Both the ascending (01:30 pm) and descending (01:30 am) paths of the publicly available and widely used AMSR-E LPRM soil moisture products were used for benchmarking purposes. Several scenarios were employed in which the land surface temperature input for the radiative transfer was varied by imposing a bias on an existing regression. These scenarios were evaluated through the Rvalue technique, resulting in optimal bias values on top of this regression. In a next step, these optimal bias values were incorporated in order to re-calibrate the existing linear regression, resulting in a quasi-global uniform LST relation for day-time observations. In a final step, day-time soil moisture retrievals using the re-calibrated land surface temperature relation were again validated through the Rvalue technique. Results indicate an average increasing Rvalue of 16.5%, which indicates a better performance obtained through the re-calibration. This number was confirmed through an independent Triple Collocation verification over the same domain, demonstrating an average root mean square error reduction of 15.3%. Furthermore, a comparison against an extensive in situ database (679 stations) also indicates a generally higher quality for the re-calibrated dataset. Besides the improved day-time dataset, this study furthermore provides insights on the relative quality of soil moisture retrieved from AMSR-E's day- and night-time observations.

Medium range flood forecasts at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voisin, N.; Wood, A. W.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Wood, E. F.

2006-12-01

While weather and climate forecast methods have advanced greatly over the last two decades, this capability has yet to be evidenced in mitigation of water-related natural hazards (primarily floods and droughts), especially in the developing world. Examples abound of extreme property damage and loss of life due to floods in the underdeveloped world. For instance, more than 4.5 million people were affected by the July 2000 flooding of the Mekong River and its tributaries in Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos and Thailand. The February- March 2000 floods in the Limpopo River of Mozambique caused extreme disruption to that country's fledgling economy. Mitigation of these events through advance warning has typically been modest at best. Despite the above noted improvement in weather and climate forecasts, there is at present no system for forecasting of floods globally, notwithstanding that the potential clearly exists. We describe a methodology that is eventually intended to generate global flood predictions routinely. It draws heavily from the experimental North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and the companion Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) for development of nowcasts, and the University of Washington Experimental Hydrologic Prediction System to develop ensemble hydrologic forecasts based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models which serve both as nowcasts (and hence reduce the need for in situ precipitation and other observations in parts of the world where surface networks are critically deficient) and provide forecasts for lead times as long as fifteen days. The heart of the hydrologic modeling system is the University of Washington/Princeton University Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model. In the prototype (tested using retrospective data), VIC is driven globally up to the time of forecast with daily ERA40 precipitation (rescaled on a monthly basis to a station-based global climatology), ERA40 wind, and ERA40 average surface air temperature (with temperature ranges adjusted to a station-based climatology). In the retrospective forecasting mode, VIC is driven by global NCEP ensemble 15-day reforecasts provided by Tom Hamill (NOAA/ERL), bias corrected with respect to the adjusted ERA40 data and further downscaled spatially using higher spatial resolution Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) 1dd daily precipitation. Downward solar and longwave radiation, surface relative humidity, and other model forcings are derived from relationships with the daily temperature range during both the retrospective (spinup) and forecast period. The initial system is implemented globally at one-half degree spatial resolution. We evaluate model performance retrospectively for predictions of major floods for the Oder River in 1997, the Mekong River in 2000 and the Limpopo River in 2000.

A parametric study of Io’s thermophysical surface properties and subsequent numerical atmospheric simulations based on the best fit parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, Andrew C.; Moore, Chris H.; Goldstein, David B.; Varghese, Philip L.; Trafton, Laurence M.

2012-07-01

Io’s sublimation atmosphere is inextricably linked to the SO2 surface frost temperature distribution which is poorly constrained by observations. We constrain Io’s surface thermal distribution by a parametric study of its thermophysical properties in an attempt to better model the morphology of Io’s sublimation atmosphere. Io’s surface thermal distribution is represented by three thermal units: sulfur dioxide (SO2) frosts/ices, non-frosts (probably sulfur allotropes and/or pyroclastic dusts), and hot spots. The hot spots included in our thermal model are static high temperature surfaces with areas and temperatures based on Keck infrared observations. Elsewhere, over frosts and non-frosts, our thermal model solves the one-dimensional heat conduction equation in depth into Io’s surface and includes the effects of eclipse by Jupiter, radiation from Jupiter, and latent heat of sublimation and condensation. The best fit parameters for the SO2 frost and non-frost units are found by using a least-squares method and fitting to observations of the Hubble Space Telescope’s Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (HST STIS) mid- to near-UV reflectance spectra and Galileo PPR brightness temperature. The thermophysical parameters are the frost Bond albedo, αF, and thermal inertia, ΓF, as well as the non-frost surface Bond albedo, αNF, and thermal inertia, ΓNF. The best fit parameters are found to be αF ≈ 0.55 ± 0.02 and ΓF ≈ 200 ± 50 J m-2 K-1 s-1/2 for the SO2 frost surface and αNF ≈ 0.49 ± 0.02 and ΓNF ≈ 20 ± 10 J m-2 K-1 s-1/2 for the non-frost surface. These surface thermophysical parameters are then used as boundary conditions in global atmospheric simulations of Io’s sublimation-driven atmosphere using the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method. These simulations are unsteady, three-dimensional, parallelized across 360 processors, and include the following physical effects: inhomogeneous surface frosts, plasma heating, and a temperature-dependent residence time on the non-frost surface. The DSMC simulations show that the sub-jovian hemisphere is significantly affected by the daily solar eclipse. The simulated SO2 surface frost temperature is found to drop only ∼5 K during eclipse due to the high thermal inertia of SO2 surface frosts but the SO2 gas column density falls by a factor of 20 compared to the pre-eclipse column due to the exponential dependence of the SO2 vapor pressure on the SO2 surface frost temperature. Supersonic winds exist prior to eclipse but become subsonic during eclipse because the collapse of the atmosphere significantly decreases the day-to-night pressure gradient that drives the winds. Prior to eclipse, the supersonic winds condense on and near the cold nightside and form a highly non-equilibrium oblique shock near the dawn terminator. In eclipse, no shock exists since the gas is subsonic and the shock only reestablishes itself an hour or more after egress from eclipse. Furthermore, the excess gas that condenses on the non-frost surface during eclipse leads to an enhancement of the atmosphere near dawn. The dawn atmospheric enhancement drives winds that oppose those that are driven away from the peak pressure region above the warmest area of the SO2 frost surface. These opposing winds meet and are collisional enough to form stagnation point flow. The simulations are compared to Lyman-α observations in an attempt to explain the asymmetry between the dayside atmospheres of the anti-jovian and sub-jovian hemispheres. Lyman-α observations indicate that the anti-jovian hemisphere has higher column densities than the sub-jovian hemisphere and also has a larger latitudinal extent. A composite “average dayside atmosphere” is formed from a collisionless simulation of Io’s atmosphere throughout an entire orbit. This composite “average dayside” atmosphere without the effect of global winds indicates that the sub-jovian hemisphere has lower average column densities than the anti-jovian hemisphere (with the strongest effect at the sub-jovian point) due primarily to the diurnally averaged effect of eclipse. This is in qualitative agreement with the sub-jovian/anti-jovian asymmetry in the Lyman-α observations which were alternatively explained by the bias of volcanic centers on the anti-jovian hemisphere. Lastly, the column densities in the simulated average dayside atmosphere agree with those inferred from Lyman-α observations despite the thermophysical parameters being constrained by mid- to near UV observations which show much higher instantaneous SO2 gas column densities. This may resolve the apparent discrepancy between the lower “average dayside” column densities observed in the Lyman-α and the higher instantaneous column densities observed in the mid- to near UV.

Monthly mean simulation experiments with a course-mesh global atmospheric model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Klugman, R.; Lutz, R. J.; Notario, J. J.

1978-01-01

Substitution of observed monthly mean sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) as lower boundary conditions, in place of climatological SSTs, failed to improve the model simulations. While the impact of SST anomalies on the model output is greater at sea level than at upper levels the impact on the monthly mean simulations is not beneficial at any level. Shifts of one and two days in initialization time produced small, but non-trivial, changes in the model-generated monthly mean synoptic fields. No improvements in the mean simulations resulted from the use of either time-averaged initial data or re-initialization with time-averaged early model output. The noise level of the model, as determined from a multiple initial state perturbation experiment, was found to be generally low, but with a noisier response to initial state errors in high latitudes than the tropics.

Average Tropical Relative Humidity from AIRS, Dec-Feb 2002-2005

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2007-01-01

The average tropospheric relative humidity from AIRS for the four December-February periods during 2002 through 2005.

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder Experiment, with its visible, infrared, and microwave detectors, provides a three-dimensional look at Earth's weather. Working in tandem, the three instruments can make simultaneous observations all the way down to the Earth's surface, even in the presence of heavy clouds. With more than 2,000 channels sensing different regions of the atmosphere, the system creates a global, 3-D map of atmospheric temperature and humidity and provides information on clouds, greenhouse gases, and many other atmospheric phenomena. The AIRS Infrared Sounder Experiment flies onboard NASA's Aqua spacecraft and is managed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., under contract to NASA. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

Widespread land surface wind decline in the Northern Hemisphere partly attributed to land surface changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thepaut, J.; Vautard, R.; Cattiaux, J.; Yiou, P.; Ciais, P.

2010-12-01

The decline of surface wind observed in many regions of the world is a potential source of concern for wind power electricity generation. It is also suggested as the main cause of decreasing pan evaporation. In China, a persistent and significant decrease of monsoon winds was observed in all seasons. Surface wind declines were also evidenced in several regions of the world (U.S., Australia, several European countries). Except over China, no clear explanation was given for the wind decrease in the regions studied. Whether surface winds decrease is due to changes in the global atmospheric circulation or its variability, in surface processes or to observational trends has therefore not been elucidated. The identification of the drivers of such a decline requires a global investigation of available surface and upper-air wind data, which has not been conducted so far. Here we use global datasets of in-situ wind measurements that contain surface weather stations wind data (hourly or three-hourly data acquisition time step) and rawinsonde vertical wind data profiles (monthly time step) prepared by the NCAR. A set of 822 worldwide surface stations with continuous wind records was selected after a careful elimination of stations with obvious breaks and large gaps. This dataset mostly covers the Northern mid latitudes over the period 1979-2008. Using this data set, we found that annual mean wind speeds have declined at 73% of the surface stations over the past 30 years. In the Northern Hemisphere, positive wind trends are found only in a few places. In Europe, Central Asia, Eastern Asia and in North America the annual mean surface wind speed has decreased on average at a rate of -2.9, -5.9, -4.2, and -1.8 %/decade respectively, i.e. a decrease of about 10% in 30 years and up to about 20% in Central Asia. These results are robust to changes in the station selection method and parameters. By contrast, upper-air winds observed from rawinsondes, geostrophic winds deduced from pressure gradients, and modeled winds from weather re-analyses do not exhibit any comparable stilling trends than at surface stations. For instance, large-scale circulation changes captured in the most recent European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast re-analysis (ERA-interim) can only explain only up to 10-50% of the wind stilling, depending on the region. In addition, a significant amount of the slow-down could originate from a generalized increase in surface roughness, due for instance to forest growth and expansion, and urbanization. This hypothesis, which could explain up to 60% of the decline, is supported by remote sensing observations and theoretical calculations combined with meso-scale model simulations. For future wind power energy resource, the part of wind decline due to land cover changes is easier to cope with than that due to global atmospheric circulation slow down.

Atmospheric methane from organic carbon mobilization in sedimentary basins — The sleeping giant?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroeger, K. F.; di Primio, R.; Horsfield, B.

2011-08-01

The mass of organic carbon in sedimentary basins amounts to a staggering 10 16 t, dwarfing the mass contained in coal, oil, gas and all living systems by ten thousand-fold. The evolution of this giant mass during subsidence and uplift, via chemical, physical and biological processes, not only controls fossil energy resource occurrence worldwide, but also has the capacity for driving global climate: only a tiny change in the degree of leakage, particularly if focused through the hydrate cycle, can result in globally significant greenhouse gas emissions. To date, neither climate models nor atmospheric CO 2 budget estimates have quantitatively included methane from thermal or microbial cracking of sedimentary organic matter deep in sedimentary basins. Recent estimates of average low latitude Eocene surface temperatures beyond 30 °C require extreme levels of atmospheric CO 2. Methane degassing from sedimentary basins may be a mechanism to explain increases of atmospheric CO 2 to values as much as 20 times higher than pre-industrial values. Increased natural gas emission could have been set in motion either by global tectonic processes such as pulses of activity in the global alpine fold belt, leading to increased basin subsidence and maturation rates in the prolific Jurassic and Cretaceous organic-rich sediments, or by increased magmatic activity such as observed in the northern Atlantic around the Paleocene-Eocene boundary. Increased natural gas emission would have led to global warming that was accentuated by long lasting positive feedback effects through temperature transfer from the surface into sedimentary basins. Massive gas hydrate dissociation may have been an additional positive feedback factor during hyperthermals superimposed on long term warming, such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). As geologic sources may have contributed over one third of global atmospheric methane in pre-industrial time, variability in methane flux from sedimentary basins may have driven global climate not only at time scales of millions of years, but also over geologically short periods of time. Earth system models linking atmospheric, ocean and earth surface processes at different timescales with the sedimentary organic carbon cycle are the tools that need to be developed in order to investigate the role of methane from sedimentary basins in earth's climate.

Coherent changes of wintertime surface air temperatures over North Asia and North America.

PubMed

Yu, Bin; Lin, Hai

2018-03-29

The surface temperature variance and its potential change with global warming are most prominent in winter over Northern Hemisphere mid-high latitudes. Consistent wintertime surface temperature variability has been observed over large areas in Eurasia and North America on a broad range of time scales. However, it remains a challenge to quantify where and how the coherent change of temperature anomalies occur over the two continents. Here we demonstrate the coherent change of wintertime surface temperature anomalies over North Asia and the central-eastern parts of North America for the period from 1951 to 2015. This is supported by the results from the empirical orthogonal function analysis of surface temperature and temperature trend anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere extratropical lands and the timeseries analysis of the regional averaged temperature anomalies over North Asia and the Great Plains and Great Lakes. The Asian-Bering-North American (ABNA) teleconnection provides a pathway to connect the regional temperature anomalies over the two continents. The ABNA is also responsible for the decadal variation of the temperature relationship between North Asia and North America.

Global patterns and predictions of seafloor biomass using random forests.

PubMed

Wei, Chih-Lin; Rowe, Gilbert T; Escobar-Briones, Elva; Boetius, Antje; Soltwedel, Thomas; Caley, M Julian; Soliman, Yousria; Huettmann, Falk; Qu, Fangyuan; Yu, Zishan; Pitcher, C Roland; Haedrich, Richard L; Wicksten, Mary K; Rex, Michael A; Baguley, Jeffrey G; Sharma, Jyotsna; Danovaro, Roberto; MacDonald, Ian R; Nunnally, Clifton C; Deming, Jody W; Montagna, Paul; Lévesque, Mélanie; Weslawski, Jan Marcin; Wlodarska-Kowalczuk, Maria; Ingole, Baban S; Bett, Brian J; Billett, David S M; Yool, Andrew; Bluhm, Bodil A; Iken, Katrin; Narayanaswamy, Bhavani E

2010-12-30

A comprehensive seafloor biomass and abundance database has been constructed from 24 oceanographic institutions worldwide within the Census of Marine Life (CoML) field projects. The machine-learning algorithm, Random Forests, was employed to model and predict seafloor standing stocks from surface primary production, water-column integrated and export particulate organic matter (POM), seafloor relief, and bottom water properties. The predictive models explain 63% to 88% of stock variance among the major size groups. Individual and composite maps of predicted global seafloor biomass and abundance are generated for bacteria, meiofauna, macrofauna, and megafauna (invertebrates and fishes). Patterns of benthic standing stocks were positive functions of surface primary production and delivery of the particulate organic carbon (POC) flux to the seafloor. At a regional scale, the census maps illustrate that integrated biomass is highest at the poles, on continental margins associated with coastal upwelling and with broad zones associated with equatorial divergence. Lowest values are consistently encountered on the central abyssal plains of major ocean basins The shift of biomass dominance groups with depth is shown to be affected by the decrease in average body size rather than abundance, presumably due to decrease in quantity and quality of food supply. This biomass census and associated maps are vital components of mechanistic deep-sea food web models and global carbon cycling, and as such provide fundamental information that can be incorporated into evidence-based management.

Global Patterns and Predictions of Seafloor Biomass Using Random Forests

PubMed Central

Wei, Chih-Lin; Rowe, Gilbert T.; Escobar-Briones, Elva; Boetius, Antje; Soltwedel, Thomas; Caley, M. Julian; Soliman, Yousria; Huettmann, Falk; Qu, Fangyuan; Yu, Zishan; Pitcher, C. Roland; Haedrich, Richard L.; Wicksten, Mary K.; Rex, Michael A.; Baguley, Jeffrey G.; Sharma, Jyotsna; Danovaro, Roberto; MacDonald, Ian R.; Nunnally, Clifton C.; Deming, Jody W.; Montagna, Paul; Lévesque, Mélanie; Weslawski, Jan Marcin; Wlodarska-Kowalczuk, Maria; Ingole, Baban S.; Bett, Brian J.; Billett, David S. M.; Yool, Andrew; Bluhm, Bodil A.; Iken, Katrin; Narayanaswamy, Bhavani E.

2010-01-01

A comprehensive seafloor biomass and abundance database has been constructed from 24 oceanographic institutions worldwide within the Census of Marine Life (CoML) field projects. The machine-learning algorithm, Random Forests, was employed to model and predict seafloor standing stocks from surface primary production, water-column integrated and export particulate organic matter (POM), seafloor relief, and bottom water properties. The predictive models explain 63% to 88% of stock variance among the major size groups. Individual and composite maps of predicted global seafloor biomass and abundance are generated for bacteria, meiofauna, macrofauna, and megafauna (invertebrates and fishes). Patterns of benthic standing stocks were positive functions of surface primary production and delivery of the particulate organic carbon (POC) flux to the seafloor. At a regional scale, the census maps illustrate that integrated biomass is highest at the poles, on continental margins associated with coastal upwelling and with broad zones associated with equatorial divergence. Lowest values are consistently encountered on the central abyssal plains of major ocean basins The shift of biomass dominance groups with depth is shown to be affected by the decrease in average body size rather than abundance, presumably due to decrease in quantity and quality of food supply. This biomass census and associated maps are vital components of mechanistic deep-sea food web models and global carbon cycling, and as such provide fundamental information that can be incorporated into evidence-based management. PMID:21209928

Climate Prediction Center global monthly soil moisture data set at 0.5° resolution for 1948 to present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Yun; van den Dool, Huug

2004-05-01

We have produced a 0.5° × 0.5° monthly global soil moisture data set for the period from 1948 to the present. The land model is a one-layer "bucket" water balance model, while the driving input fields are Climate Prediction Center monthly global precipitation over land, which uses over 17,000 gauges worldwide, and monthly global temperature from global Reanalysis. The output consists of global monthly soil moisture, evaporation, and runoff, starting from January 1948. A distinguishing feature of this data set is that all fields are updated monthly, which greatly enhances utility for near-real-time purposes. Data validation shows that the land model does well; both the simulated annual cycle and interannual variability of soil moisture are reasonably good against the limited observations in different regions. A data analysis reveals that, on average, the land surface water balance components have a stronger annual cycle in the Southern Hemisphere than those in the Northern Hemisphere. From the point of view of soil moisture, climates can be characterized into two types, monsoonal and midlatitude climates, with the monsoonal ones covering most of the low-latitude land areas and showing a more prominent annual variation. A global soil moisture empirical orthogonal function analysis and time series of hemisphere means reveal some interesting patterns (like El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and long-term trends in both regional and global scales.

Surface albedo observations at Gusev Crater and Meridiani Planum, Mars

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bell, J.F.; Rice, M.S.; Johnson, J. R.; Hare, T.M.

2008-01-01

During the Mars Exploration Rover mission, the Pancam instrument has periodically acquired large-scale panoramic images with its broadband (739??338 nm) filter in order to estimate the Lambert bolometric albedo of the surface along each rover's traverse. In this work we present the full suite of such estimated albedo values measured to date by the Spirit and Opportunity rovers along their traverses in Gusev Crater and Meridiani Planum, respectively. We include estimated bolometric albedo values of individual surface features (e.g., outcrops, dusty plains, aeolian bed forms, wheel tracks, light-toned soils, and crater walls) as well as overall surface averages of the 43 total panoramic albedo data sets acquired to date. We also present comparisons to estimated Lambert albedo values taken from the Mars Global Surveyor Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) along the rovers' traverses, and to the large-scale bolometric albedos of the sites from the Viking Orbiter Infrared Thermal Mapper (IRTM) and Mars Global Surveyor/Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES). The ranges of Pancam-derived albedos at Gusev Crater (0.14 to 0.25) and in Meridiani Planum. (0.10 to 0.18) are in good agreement with IRTM, TES, and MOC orbital measurements. These data sets will be a useful tool and benchmark for future investigations of albodo variations with time, including measurements from orbital instruments like the Context Camera and High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. Long-term, accurate albedo measurements could also be important for future efforts in climate modeling as well as for studies of active surface processes. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Surface albedo observations at Gusev Crater and Meridiani Planum, Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, J. F.; Rice, M. S.; Johnson, J. R.; Hare, T. M.

2008-05-01

During the Mars Exploration Rover mission, the Pancam instrument has periodically acquired large-scale panoramic images with its broadband (739 +/- 338 nm) filter in order to estimate the Lambert bolometric albedo of the surface along each rover's traverse. In this work we present the full suite of such estimated albedo values measured to date by the Spirit and Opportunity rovers along their traverses in Gusev Crater and Meridiani Planum, respectively. We include estimated bolometric albedo values of individual surface features (e.g., outcrops, dusty plains, aeolian bed forms, wheel tracks, light-toned soils, and crater walls) as well as overall surface averages of the 43 total panoramic albedo data sets acquired to date. We also present comparisons to estimated Lambert albedo values taken from the Mars Global Surveyor Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) along the rovers' traverses, and to the large-scale bolometric albedos of the sites from the Viking Orbiter Infrared Thermal Mapper (IRTM) and Mars Global Surveyor/Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES). The ranges of Pancam-derived albedos at Gusev Crater (0.14 to 0.25) and in Meridiani Planum (0.10 to 0.18) are in good agreement with IRTM, TES, and MOC orbital measurements. These data sets will be a useful tool and benchmark for future investigations of albedo variations with time, including measurements from orbital instruments like the Context Camera and High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. Long-term, accurate albedo measurements could also be important for future efforts in climate modeling as well as for studies of active surface processes.

Visualization tool for the world ocean surface currents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasyanov, S.; Nikitin, O.

2003-04-01

Fortran-based software for the world ocean surface currents visualization functioning on the Windows platform (95 and higher) has been developed. The software works with the global interpolated drifting buoys data set (1979-2002) from the WOCE Surface Velocity Program and the global bottom relief five-minute resolution data set (ETOPO5). These data sets loaded in binary form into operative memory of a PC (256 Mb or better more), together with the software compose the world ocean surface currents visualization tool. The tool allows researches to process data on-line in any region of the world ocean, display data in different visualization forms, calculate currents velocity statistics and save chosen images as graphic files. It provides displays of buoy movement (animation), maps of buoy trajectories, averaged (by prescribed time and space grid intervals) current vector and modulus fields, fields of current mean and eddy kinetic energies and their ratio, current steadiness coefficient and sea surface temperature. Any trajectory may be selected simply by clicking it on any summary map of trajectories (or by given buoy number). It may then be viewed and analyzed in detail, while graphs of velocity (components, module and vector) and water temperature variations along this trajectory may be displayed. The description of the previous version of the tool and some screen shots are available at http://zhurnal.ape.relarn.ru/articles/2001/154.pdf(in Russian) and will be available (in English) at http://csit.ugatu.ac.ru (CSIT '2001, Proceedings, v.2, p. 32-41, Nikitin O.P. et al).

Use of North American and European air quality networks to evaluate global chemistry-climate modeling of surface ozone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schnell, J. L.; Prather, M. J.; Josse, B.

Here we test the current generation of global chemistry–climate models in their ability to simulate observed, present-day surface ozone. Models are evaluated against hourly surface ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1° × 1° grid cells, allowing commensurate model–measurement comparison. Models are generally biased high during all hours of the day and in all regions. Most models simulate the shape of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles well, correctly matching the timing of hourly (~ 15:00 local time (LT)) and monthly (mid-June) peak surface ozone abundance. The amplitude of these cycles is lessmore » successfully matched. The observed summertime diurnal range (~ 25 ppb) is underestimated in all regions by about 7 ppb, and the observed seasonal range (~ 21 ppb) is underestimated by about 5 ppb except in the most polluted regions, where it is overestimated by about 5 ppb. The models generally match the pattern of the observed summertime ozone enhancement, but they overestimate its magnitude in most regions. Most models capture the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes, correctly showing that about 80 % of individual extreme events occur in large-scale, multi-day episodes of more than 100 grid cells. The models also match the observed linear relationship between episode size and a measure of episode intensity, which shows increases in ozone abundance by up to 6 ppb for larger-sized episodes. Lastly, we conclude that the skill of the models evaluated here provides confidence in their projections of future surface ozone.« less

Global environmental effects of impact-generated aerosols: Results from a general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Covey, C.; Ghan, S. J.; Weissman, Paul R.

1988-01-01

Cooling and darkening at Earth's surface are expected to result from the interception of sunlight by the high altitude worldwide dust cloud generated by impact of a large asteroid or comet, according to the one-dimensional radioactive-convective atmospheric model (RCM) of Pollack et al. An analogous three-dimensional general circulation model (GCM) simulation obtains the same basic result as the RCM but there are important differences in detail. In the GCM simulation the heat capacity of the oceans, not included in the RCM, substantially mitigates land surface cooling. On the other hand, the GCM's low heat capacity surface allows surface temperatures to drop much more rapidly than reported by Pollack et al. These two differences between RCM and GCM simulations were noted previously in studies of nuclear winter; GCM results for comet/asteroid winter, however, are much more severe than for nuclear winter because the assumed aerosol amount is large enough to intercept all sunlight falling on Earth. In the simulation the global average of land surface temperature drops to the freezing point in just 4.5 days, one-tenth the time required in the Pollack et al. simulation. In addition to the standard case of Pollack et al., which represents the collision of a 10-km diameter asteroid with Earth, additional scenarios are considered ranging from the statistically more frequent impacts of smaller asteroids to the collision of Halley's comet with Earth. In the latter case the kinetic energy of impact is extremely large due to the head-on collision resulting from Halley's retrograde orbit.

Use of North American and European air quality networks to evaluate global chemistry-climate modeling of surface ozone

DOE PAGES

Schnell, J. L.; Prather, M. J.; Josse, B.; ...

2015-09-25

Here we test the current generation of global chemistry–climate models in their ability to simulate observed, present-day surface ozone. Models are evaluated against hourly surface ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1° × 1° grid cells, allowing commensurate model–measurement comparison. Models are generally biased high during all hours of the day and in all regions. Most models simulate the shape of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles well, correctly matching the timing of hourly (~ 15:00 local time (LT)) and monthly (mid-June) peak surface ozone abundance. The amplitude of these cycles is lessmore » successfully matched. The observed summertime diurnal range (~ 25 ppb) is underestimated in all regions by about 7 ppb, and the observed seasonal range (~ 21 ppb) is underestimated by about 5 ppb except in the most polluted regions, where it is overestimated by about 5 ppb. The models generally match the pattern of the observed summertime ozone enhancement, but they overestimate its magnitude in most regions. Most models capture the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes, correctly showing that about 80 % of individual extreme events occur in large-scale, multi-day episodes of more than 100 grid cells. The models also match the observed linear relationship between episode size and a measure of episode intensity, which shows increases in ozone abundance by up to 6 ppb for larger-sized episodes. Lastly, we conclude that the skill of the models evaluated here provides confidence in their projections of future surface ozone.« less

Dynamical significance of tides over the Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhagawati, Chirantan; Pandey, Suchita; Dandapat, Sumit; Chakraborty, Arun

2018-06-01

Tides play a significant role in the ocean surface circulations and vertical mixing thereby influencing the Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) as well. This, in turn, plays an important role in the global circulation when used as a lower boundary condition in a global atmospheric general circulation model. Therefore in the present study, the dynamics of tides over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is investigated through numerical simulations using a high resolution (1/12°) Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Based on statistical analysis it is observed that incorporation of explicit tidal forcing improves the model performance in simulating the basin averaged monthly surface circulation features by 64% compared to the simulation without tides. The model simulates also Mixed Layer Depth (MLD) and SST realistically. The energy exchange between tidal oscillations and eddies leads to redistribution of surface kinetic energy density with a net decrease of 0.012 J m-3 in the western Bay and a net increase of 0.007 J m-3 in the eastern Bay. The tidal forcing also affects the potential energy anomaly and vertical mixing thereby leading to a fall in monthly MLD over the BoB. The mixing due to tides leads to a subsequent reduction in monthly SST and a corresponding reduction in surface heat exchange. These results from the numerical simulation using ROMS reveal that tides have a significant influence over the air-sea heat exchange which is the most important parameter for prediction of Tropical Cyclone frequency and its future variability over the BoB.

Global Pattern of Potential Evaporation Calculated from the Penman-Monteith Equation Using Satellite and Assimilated Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choudhury, Bhaskar J.

1997-01-01

Potential evaporation (E(0)) has been found to be useful in many practical applications and in research for setting a reference level for actual evaporation. All previous estimates of regional or global E(0) are based upon empirical formulae using climatologic meteorologic measurements at isolated stations (i.e., point data). However, the Penman-Monteith equation provides a physically based approach for computing E(0), and by comparing 20 different methods of estimating E(0), Jensen et al. (1990) showed that the Penman-Monteith equation provides the most accurate estimate of monthly E(0) from well-watered grass or alfalfa. In the present study, monthly total E(0) for 24 months (January 1987 to December 1988) was calculated from the Penman-Monteith equation, with prescribed albedo of 0.23 and surface resistance of 70 s/m, which are considered to be representative of actively growing well-watered grass covering the ground. These calculations have been done using spatially representative data derived from satellite observations and data assimilation results. Satellite observations were used to obtain solar radiation, fractional cloud cover, air temperature, and vapor pressure, while four-dimensional data assimilation results were used to calculate the aerodynamic resistance. Meteorologic data derived from satellite observations were compared with the surface measurements to provide a measure of accuracy. The accuracy of the calculated E(0) values was assessed by comparing with lysimeter observations for evaporation from well-watered grass at 35 widely distributed locations, while recognizing that the period of present calculations was not concurrent with the lysimeter measurements and the spatial scales of these measurements and calculations are vastly different. These comparisons suggest that the error in the calculated E(0) values may not be exceeded, on average, 20% for any month or location, but are more likely to be about 15%. These uncertainties are difficult to quantify for mountainous areas or locations close to extensive water bodies. The difference between the calculated and observed E(0) is about 5% when all month and locations were considered. Errors are expected to be less than 15% for averages of E(0) over large areas or several months. Further comparisons with lysimeter observations could provide a better appraisal of the calculated values. Global pattern of E(0) was presented, together with zonal average values.

Long-Term Planetary Habitability and the Carbonate-Silicate Cycle.

PubMed

Rushby, Andrew J; Johnson, Martin; Mills, Benjamin J W; Watson, Andrew J; Claire, Mark W

2018-05-01

The potential habitability of an exoplanet is traditionally assessed by determining whether its orbit falls within the circumstellar "habitable zone" of its star, defined as the distance at which water could be liquid on the surface of a planet (Kopparapu et al., 2013 ). Traditionally, these limits are determined by radiative-convective climate models, which are used to predict surface temperatures at user-specified levels of greenhouse gases. This approach ignores the vital question of the (bio)geochemical plausibility of the proposed chemical abundances. Carbon dioxide is the most important greenhouse gas in Earth's atmosphere in terms of regulating planetary temperature, with the long-term concentration controlled by the balance between volcanic outgassing and the sequestration of CO 2 via chemical weathering and sedimentation, as modulated by ocean chemistry, circulation, and biological (microbial) productivity. We developed a model that incorporates key aspects of Earth's short- and long-term biogeochemical carbon cycle to explore the potential changes in the CO 2 greenhouse due to variance in planet size and stellar insolation. We find that proposed changes in global topography, tectonics, and the hydrological cycle on larger planets result in proportionally greater surface temperatures for a given incident flux. For planets between 0.5 and 2 R ⊕ , the effect of these changes results in average global surface temperature deviations of up to 20 K, which suggests that these relationships must be considered in future studies of planetary habitability. Key Words: Planets-Atmospheres-Carbon dioxide-Biogeochemistry. Astrobiology 18, 469-480.

Impacts of Ozone-vegetation Interactions and Biogeochemical Feedbacks on Atmospheric Composition and Air Quality Under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadeke, M.; Tai, A. P. K.; Lombardozzi, D.; Val Martin, M.

2015-12-01

Surface ozone pollution is one of the major environmental concerns due to its damaging effects on human and vegetation. One of the largest uncertainties of future surface ozone prediction comes from its interaction with vegetation under a changing climate. Ozone can be modulated by vegetation through, e.g., biogenic emissions, dry deposition and transpiration. These processes are in turn affected by chronic exposure to ozone via lowered photosynthesis rate and stomatal conductance. Both ozone and vegetation growth are expected to be altered by climate change. To better understand these climate-ozone-vegetation interactions and possible feedbacks on ozone itself via vegetation, we implement an online ozone-vegetation scheme [Lombardozzi et al., 2015] into the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with active atmospheric chemistry, climate and land surface components. Previous overestimation of surface ozone in eastern US, Canada and Europe is shown to be reduced by >8 ppb, reflecting improved model-observation comparison. Simulated surface ozone is lower by 3.7 ppb on average globally. Such reductions (and improvements) in simulated ozone are caused mainly by lower isoprene emission arising from reduced leaf area index in response to chronic ozone exposure. Effects via transpiration are also potentially significant but require better characterization. Such findings suggest that ozone-vegetation interaction may substantially alter future ozone simulations, especially under changing climate and ambient CO2 levels, which would further modulate ozone-vegetation interactions. Inclusion of such interactions in Earth system models is thus necessary to give more realistic estimation and prediction of surface ozone. This is crucial for better policy formulation regarding air quality, land use and climate change mitigation. Reference list: Lombardozzi, D., et al. "The Influence of Chronic Ozone Exposure on Global Carbon and Water Cycles." Journal of Climate 28.1 (2015): 292-305.

Observing climate change trends in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where.

PubMed

Henson, Stephanie A; Beaulieu, Claudie; Lampitt, Richard

2016-04-01

Understanding the influence of anthropogenic forcing on the marine biosphere is a high priority. Climate change-driven trends need to be accurately assessed and detected in a timely manner. As part of the effort towards detection of long-term trends, a network of ocean observatories and time series stations provide high quality data for a number of key parameters, such as pH, oxygen concentration or primary production (PP). Here, we use an ensemble of global coupled climate models to assess the temporal and spatial scales over which observations of eight biogeochemically relevant variables must be made to robustly detect a long-term trend. We find that, as a global average, continuous time series are required for between 14 (pH) and 32 (PP) years to distinguish a climate change trend from natural variability. Regional differences are extensive, with low latitudes and the Arctic generally needing shorter time series (<~30 years) to detect trends than other areas. In addition, we quantify the 'footprint' of existing and planned time series stations, that is the area over which a station is representative of a broader region. Footprints are generally largest for pH and sea surface temperature, but nevertheless the existing network of observatories only represents 9-15% of the global ocean surface. Our results present a quantitative framework for assessing the adequacy of current and future ocean observing networks for detection and monitoring of climate change-driven responses in the marine ecosystem. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Delayed detection of climate mitigation benefits due to climate inertia and variability.

PubMed

Tebaldi, Claudia; Friedlingstein, Pierre

2013-10-22

Climate change mitigation acts by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and thus curbing, or even reversing, the increase in their atmospheric concentration. This reduces the associated anthropogenic radiative forcing, and hence the size of the warming. Because of the inertia and internal variability affecting the climate system and the global carbon cycle, it is unlikely that a reduction in warming would be immediately discernible. Here we use 21st century simulations from the latest ensemble of Earth System Model experiments to investigate and quantify when mitigation becomes clearly discernible. We use one of the scenarios as a reference for a strong mitigation strategy, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and compare its outcome with either RCP4.5 or RCP8.5, both of which are less severe mitigation pathways. We analyze global mean atmospheric CO2, and changes in annually and seasonally averaged surface temperature at global and regional scales. For global mean surface temperature, the median detection time of mitigation is about 25-30 y after RCP2.6 emissions depart from the higher emission trajectories. This translates into detection of a mitigation signal by 2035 or 2045, depending on whether the comparison is with RCP8.5 or RCP4.5, respectively. The detection of climate benefits of emission mitigation occurs later at regional scales, with a median detection time between 30 and 45 y after emission paths separate. Requiring a 95% confidence level induces a delay of several decades, bringing detection time toward the end of the 21st century.

Characteristic mega-basin water storage behavior using GRACE.

PubMed

Reager, J T; Famiglietti, James S

2013-06-01

[1] A long-standing challenge for hydrologists has been a lack of observational data on global-scale basin hydrological behavior. With observations from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, hydrologists are now able to study terrestrial water storage for large river basins (>200,000 km 2 ), with monthly time resolution. Here we provide results of a time series model of basin-averaged GRACE terrestrial water storage anomaly and Global Precipitation Climatology Project precipitation for the world's largest basins. We address the short (10 year) length of the GRACE record by adopting a parametric spectral method to calculate frequency-domain transfer functions of storage response to precipitation forcing and then generalize these transfer functions based on large-scale basin characteristics, such as percent forest cover and basin temperature. Among the parameters tested, results show that temperature, soil water-holding capacity, and percent forest cover are important controls on relative storage variability, while basin area and mean terrain slope are less important. The derived empirical relationships were accurate (0.54 ≤  E f  ≤ 0.84) in modeling global-scale water storage anomaly time series for the study basins using only precipitation, average basin temperature, and two land-surface variables, offering the potential for synthesis of basin storage time series beyond the GRACE observational period. Such an approach could be applied toward gap filling between current and future GRACE missions and for predicting basin storage given predictions of future precipitation.

Characteristic mega-basin water storage behavior using GRACE

PubMed Central

Reager, J T; Famiglietti, James S

2013-01-01

[1] A long-standing challenge for hydrologists has been a lack of observational data on global-scale basin hydrological behavior. With observations from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, hydrologists are now able to study terrestrial water storage for large river basins (>200,000 km2), with monthly time resolution. Here we provide results of a time series model of basin-averaged GRACE terrestrial water storage anomaly and Global Precipitation Climatology Project precipitation for the world’s largest basins. We address the short (10 year) length of the GRACE record by adopting a parametric spectral method to calculate frequency-domain transfer functions of storage response to precipitation forcing and then generalize these transfer functions based on large-scale basin characteristics, such as percent forest cover and basin temperature. Among the parameters tested, results show that temperature, soil water-holding capacity, and percent forest cover are important controls on relative storage variability, while basin area and mean terrain slope are less important. The derived empirical relationships were accurate (0.54 ≤ Ef ≤ 0.84) in modeling global-scale water storage anomaly time series for the study basins using only precipitation, average basin temperature, and two land-surface variables, offering the potential for synthesis of basin storage time series beyond the GRACE observational period. Such an approach could be applied toward gap filling between current and future GRACE missions and for predicting basin storage given predictions of future precipitation. PMID:24563556

A global catalogue of Ceres impact craters ≥ 1 km and preliminary analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gou, Sheng; Yue, Zongyu; Di, Kaichang; Liu, Zhaoqin

2018-03-01

The orbital data products of Ceres, including global LAMO image mosaic and global HAMO DTM with a resolution of 35 m/pixel and 135 m/pixel respectively, are utilized in this research to create a global catalogue of impact craters with diameter ≥ 1 km, and their morphometric parameters are calculated. Statistics shows: (1) There are 29,219 craters in the catalogue, and the craters have a various morphologies, e.g., polygonal crater, floor fractured crater, complex crater with central peak, etc.; (2) The identifiable smallest crater size is extended to 1 km and the crater numbers have been updated when compared with the crater catalogue (D ≥ 20 km) released by the Dawn Science Team; (3) The d/D ratios for fresh simple craters, obviously degraded simple crater and polygonal simple crater are 0.11 ± 0.04, 0.05 ± 0.04 and 0.14 ± 0.02 respectively. (4) The d/D ratios for non-polygonal complex crater and polygonal complex crater are 0.08 ± 0.04 and 0.09 ± 0.03. The global crater catalogue created in this work can be further applied to many other scientific researches, such as comparing d/D with other bodies, inferring subsurface properties, determining surface age, and estimating average erosion rate.

Rapid emergence of subaerial landmasses and onset of a modern hydrologic cycle 2.5 billion years ago.

PubMed

Bindeman, I N; Zakharov, D O; Palandri, J; Greber, N D; Dauphas, N; Retallack, G J; Hofmann, A; Lackey, J S; Bekker, A

2018-05-01

The history of the growth of continental crust is uncertain, and several different models that involve a gradual, decelerating, or stepwise process have been proposed 1-4 . Even more uncertain is the timing and the secular trend of the emergence of most landmasses above the sea (subaerial landmasses), with estimates ranging from about one billion to three billion years ago 5-7 . The area of emerged crust influences global climate feedbacks and the supply of nutrients to the oceans 8 , and therefore connects Earth's crustal evolution to surface environmental conditions 9-11 . Here we use the triple-oxygen-isotope composition of shales from all continents, spanning 3.7 billion years, to provide constraints on the emergence of continents over time. Our measurements show a stepwise total decrease of 0.08 per mille in the average triple-oxygen-isotope value of shales across the Archaean-Proterozoic boundary. We suggest that our data are best explained by a shift in the nature of water-rock interactions, from near-coastal in the Archaean era to predominantly continental in the Proterozoic, accompanied by a decrease in average surface temperatures. We propose that this shift may have coincided with the onset of a modern hydrological cycle owing to the rapid emergence of continental crust with near-modern average elevation and aerial extent roughly 2.5 billion years ago.

Importance of ocean mesoscale variability for air-sea interactions in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putrasahan, D. A.; Kamenkovich, I.; Le Hénaff, M.; Kirtman, B. P.

2017-06-01

Mesoscale variability of currents in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) can affect oceanic heat advection and air-sea heat exchanges, which can influence climate extremes over North America. This study is aimed at understanding the influence of the oceanic mesoscale variability on the lower atmosphere and air-sea heat exchanges. The study contrasts global climate model (GCM) with 0.1° ocean resolution (high resolution; HR) with its low-resolution counterpart (1° ocean resolution with the same 0.5° atmosphere resolution; LR). The LR simulation is relevant to current generation of GCMs that are still unable to resolve the oceanic mesoscale. Similar to observations, HR exhibits positive correlation between sea surface temperature (SST) and surface turbulent heat flux anomalies, while LR has negative correlation. For HR, we decompose lateral advective heat fluxes in the upper ocean into mean (slowly varying) and mesoscale-eddy (fast fluctuations) components. We find that the eddy flux divergence/convergence dominates the lateral advection and correlates well with the SST anomalies and air-sea latent heat exchanges. This result suggests that oceanic mesoscale advection supports warm SST anomalies that in turn feed surface heat flux. We identify anticyclonic warm-core circulation patterns (associated Loop Current and rings) which have an average diameter of 350 km. These warm anomalies are sustained by eddy heat flux convergence at submonthly time scales and have an identifiable imprint on surface turbulent heat flux, atmospheric circulation, and convective precipitation in the northwest portion of an averaged anticyclone.

What FIREs Up Star Formation: the Emergence of the Kennicutt-Schmidt Law from Feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orr, Matthew E.; Hayward, Christopher C.; Hopkins, Philip F.; Chan, T. K.; Faucher-Giguère, Claude-André; Feldmann, Robert; Kereš, Dušan; Murray, Norman; Quataert, Eliot

2018-05-01

We present an analysis of the global and spatially-resolved Kennicutt-Schmidt (KS) star formation relation in the FIRE (Feedback In Realistic Environments) suite of cosmological simulations, including halos with z = 0 masses ranging from 1010 - 1013 M⊙. We show that the KS relation emerges and is robustly maintained due to the effects of feedback on local scales regulating star-forming gas, independent of the particular small-scale star formation prescriptions employed. We demonstrate that the time-averaged KS relation is relatively independent of redshift and spatial averaging scale, and that the star formation rate surface density is weakly dependent on metallicity and inversely dependent on orbital dynamical time. At constant star formation rate surface density, the `Cold & Dense' gas surface density (gas with T < 300 K and n > 10 cm-3, used as a proxy for the molecular gas surface density) of the simulated galaxies is ˜0.5 dex less than observed at ˜kpc scales. This discrepancy may arise from underestimates of the local column density at the particle-scale for the purposes of shielding in the simulations. Finally, we show that on scales larger than individual giant molecular clouds, the primary condition that determines whether star formation occurs is whether a patch of the galactic disk is thermally Toomre-unstable (not whether it is self-shielding): once a patch can no longer be thermally stabilized against fragmentation, it collapses, becomes self-shielding, cools, and forms stars, regardless of epoch or environment.

Efficient Reformulation of the Thermoelastic Higher-order Theory for Fgms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bansal, Yogesh; Pindera, Marek-Jerzy; Arnold, Steven M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Functionally graded materials (FGMs) are characterized by spatially variable microstructures which are introduced to satisfy given performance requirements. The microstructural gradation gives rise to continuously or discretely changing material properties which complicate FGM analysis. Various techniques have been developed during the past several decades for analyzing traditional composites and many of these have been adapted for the analysis of FGMs. Most of the available techniques use the so-called uncoupled approach in order to analyze graded structures. These techniques ignore the effect of microstructural gradation by employing specific spatial material property variations that are either assumed or obtained by local homogenization. The higher-order theory for functionally graded materials (HOTFGM) is a coupled approach developed by Aboudi et al. (1999) which takes the effect of microstructural gradation into consideration and does not ignore the local-global interaction of the spatially variable inclusion phase(s). Despite its demonstrated utility, however, the original formulation of the higher-order theory is computationally intensive. Herein, an efficient reformulation of the original higher-order theory for two-dimensional elastic problems is developed and validated. The use of the local-global conductivity and local-global stiffness matrix approach is made in order to reduce the number of equations involved. In this approach, surface-averaged quantities are the primary variables which replace volume-averaged quantities employed in the original formulation. The reformulation decreases the size of the global conductivity and stiffness matrices by approximately sixty percent. Various thermal, mechanical, and combined thermomechanical problems are analyzed in order to validate the accuracy of the reformulated theory through comparison with analytical and finite-element solutions. The presented results illustrate the efficiency of the reformulation and its advantages in analyzing functionally graded materials.

Insights from a Regime Decomposition Approach on CERES and CloudSat-inferred Cloud Radiative Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oreopoulos, L.; Cho, N.; Lee, D.

2015-12-01

Our knowledge of the Cloud Radiative Effect (CRE) not only at the Top-of-the-Atmosphere (TOA), but also (with the help of some modeling) at the surface (SFC) and within the atmospheric column (ATM) has been steadily growing in recent years. Not only do we have global values for these CREs, but we can now also plot global maps of their geographical distribution. The next step in our effort to advance our knowledge of CRE is to systematically assess the contributions of prevailing cloud systems to the global values. The presentation addresses this issue directly. We identify the world's prevailing cloud systems, which we call "Cloud Regimes" (CRs) via clustering analysis of MODIS (Aqua-Terra) daily joint histograms of Cloud Top Pressure and Cloud Optical Thickness (TAU) at 1 degree scales. We then composite CERES diurnal values of CRE (TOA, SFC, ATM) separately for each CR by averaging these values for each CR occurrence, and thus find the contribution of each CR to the global value of CRE. But we can do more. We can actually decompose vertical profiles of inferred instantaneous CRE from CloudSat/CALIPSO (2B-FLXHR-LIDAR product) by averaging over Aqua CR occurrences (since A-Train formation flying allows collocation). Such an analysis greatly enhances our understanding of the radiative importance of prevailing cloud mixtures at different atmospheric levels. We can, for example, in addition to examining whether the CERES findings on which CRs contribute to radiative cooling and warming of the atmospheric column are consistent with CloudSat, also gain insight on why and where exactly this happens from the shape of the full instantaneous CRE vertical profiles.

Range of monthly mean hourly land surface air temperature diurnal cycle over high northern latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Aihui; Zeng, Xubin

2014-05-01

Daily maximum and minimum temperatures over global land are fundamental climate variables, and their difference represents the diurnal temperature range (DTR). While the differences between the monthly averaged DTR (MDTR) and the range of monthly averaged hourly temperature diurnal cycle (RMDT) are easy to understand qualitatively, their differences have not been quantified over global land areas. Based on our newly developed in situ data (Climatic Research Unit) reanalysis (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) merged hourly temperature data from 1979 to 2009, RMDT in January is found to be much smaller than that in July over high northern latitudes, as it is much more affected by the diurnal radiative forcing than by the horizontal advection of temperature. In contrast, MDTR in January is comparable to that in July over high northern latitudes, but it is much larger than January RMDT, as it primarily reflects the movement of lower frequency synoptic weather systems. The area-averaged RMDT trends north of 40°N are near zero in November, December, and January, while the trends of MDTR are negative. These results suggest the need to use both the traditional MDTR and RMDT suggested here in future observational and modeling studies. Furthermore, MDTR and its trend are more sensitive to the starting hour of a 24 h day used in the calculations than those for RMDT, and this factor also needs to be considered in model evaluations using observational data.

Response of the global climate to changes in atmospheric chemical composition due to fossil fuel burning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hameed, S.; Cess, R. D.; Hogan, J. S.

1980-01-01

Recent modeling of atmospheric chemical processes (Logan et al, 1978; Hameed et al, 1979) suggests that tropospheric ozone and methane might significantly increase in the future as the result of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO(x), and CH4 due to fossil fuel burning. Since O3 and CH4 are both greenhouse gases, increases in their concentrations could augment global warming due to larger future amounts of atmospheric CO2. To test the possible climatic impact of changes in tropospheric chemical composition, a zonal energy-balance climate model has been combined with a vertically averaged tropospheric chemical model. The latter model includes all relevant chemical reactions which affect species derived from H2O, O2, CH4, and NO(x). The climate model correspondingly incorporates changes in the infrared heating of the surface-troposphere system resulting from chemically induced changes in tropospheric ozone and methane. This coupled climate-chemical model indicates that global climate is sensitive to changes in emissions of CO, NO(x) and CH4, and that future increases in these emissions could augment global warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2.

Sampling biases in datasets of historical mean air temperature over land.

PubMed

Wang, Kaicun

2014-04-10

Global mean surface air temperature (Ta) has been reported to have risen by 0.74°C over the last 100 years. However, the definition of mean Ta is still a subject of debate. The most defensible definition might be the integral of the continuous temperature measurements over a day (Td0). However, for technological and historical reasons, mean Ta over land have been taken to be the average of the daily maximum and minimum temperature measurements (Td1). All existing principal global temperature analyses over land rely heavily on Td1. Here, I make a first quantitative assessment of the bias in the use of Td1 to estimate trends of mean Ta using hourly Ta observations at 5600 globally distributed weather stations from the 1970s to 2013. I find that the use of Td1 has a negligible impact on the global mean warming rate. However, the trend of Td1 has a substantial bias at regional and local scales, with a root mean square error of over 25% at 5° × 5° grids. Therefore, caution should be taken when using mean Ta datasets based on Td1 to examine high resolution details of warming trends.

Consistency of Aquarius version-4 sea surface salinity with Argo products on various spatial and temporal scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Tong

2017-04-01

Understanding the accuracies of satellite-derived sea surface salinity (SSS) measurements in depicting temporal changes and the dependence of the accuracies on spatiotemporal scales are important to capability assessment, future mission design, and applications to study oceanic phenomena of different spatiotemporal scales. This study quantifies the consistency between Aquarius Version-4 monthly gridded SSS (released in late 2015) with two widely used Argo monthly gridded near-surface salinity products. The analysis focused on their consistency in depicting temporal changes (including seasonal and non-seasonal) on various spatial scales: 1˚ x1˚ , 3˚ x3˚ , and 10˚ x10˚ . Globally averaged standard deviation (STD) values for Aquarius-Argo salinity differences on these three spatial scales are 0.16, 0.14, 0.09 psu, compared to those between the two Argo products of 0.10, 0.09, and 0.04 psu. Aquarius SSS compare better with Argo data on non-seasonal (e.g., interannual and intraseasonal) than for seasonal time scales. The seasonal Aquarius-Argo SSS differences are mostly concentrated at high latitudes. The Aquarius team is making active efforts to further reduce these high-latitude seasonal biases. The consistency between Aquarius and Argo salinity is similar to that between the two Argo products in the tropics and subtropics for non-seasonal signals, and in the tropics for seasonal signals. Therefore, the representativeness errors of the Argo products for various spatial scales (related to sampling and gridding) need to be taken into account when estimating the uncertainty of Aquarius SSS. The globally averaged uncertainty of large-scale (10˚ x10˚ ) non-seasonal Aquarius SSS is approximately 0.04 psu. These estimates reflect the significant improvements of Aquarius Version-4 SSS over the previous versions. The estimates can be used as baseline requirements for future ocean salinity missions from space. The spatial distribution of the uncertainty estimates is also useful for assimilation of Aquarius SSS.

Consistency of Aquarius version-4 sea surface salinity with Argo products on various spatial and temporal scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, T.

2016-12-01

Understanding the accuracies of satellite-derived sea surface salinity (SSS) measurements in depicting temporal changes and the dependence of the accuracies on spatio-temporal scales are important to applications, capability assessment, and future mission design. This study quantifies the consistency between Aquarius Version-4 monthly gridded SSS (released in October 2015) with two widely used Argo monthly gridded near-surface salinity products. The analysis focused on their consistency in depicting temporal changes (including seasonal and non-seasonal) on various spatial scales: 1°x1°, 3°x3°, and 10°x10°. Globally averaged standard deviation (STD) values for Aquarius-Argo salinity differences on these three spatial scales are 0.16, 0.14, 0.09 psu, compared to those between the two Argo products of 0.10, 0.09, and 0.04 psu. Aquarius SSS compare better with Argo data on non-seasonal (e.g., interannual and intraseasonal) than for seasonal time scales. The seasonal Aquarius-Argo SSS differences are mostly concentrated at high latitudes. The Aquarius team is making active efforts to further reduce these high-latitude seasonal biases. The consistency between Aquarius and Argo salinity is similar to that between the two Argo products in the tropics and subtropics for non-seasonal signals, and in the tropics for seasonal signals. Therefore, the representativeness errors of the Argo products for various spatial scales (related to sampling and gridding) need to be taken into account when estimating the uncertainty of Aquarius SSS. The globally averaged uncertainty of large-scale (10°x10°) non-seasonal Aquarius SSS is approximately 0.04 psu. These estimates reflect the significant improvements of Aquarius Version-4 SSS over the previous versions. The estimates can be used as baseline requirements for future ocean salinity missions from space.

Long Term Planetary Habitability and the Carbonate-Silicate Cycle: The Effect of Planet Size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rushby, A. J.; Johnson, M.; Mills, B.; Watson, A. J.; Claire, M.

2017-12-01

The potential habitability of exoplanets is traditionally assessed by determining whether or not its orbit falls within the circumstellar `habitable zone' of its star [1]. However, this metric does not readily account readily for changes in the abundance of greenhouse gases and their associated radiative forcing as a result of the action of the carbonate-silicate cycle. We develop a model of the carbon cycle on Earth, coupled with a stellar evolution model and a 1-D radiative-convective climate model with an Earth-like atmospheric water vapour profile [1], to explore the potential changes in the CO2 greenhouse under conditions of varying planet size (0.5 - 2 R⊕) and stellar flux (0.75 to 1.25 S⊕).We find that likely changes in global topography, tectonic outgassing and uplift, and the hydrological cycle on larger planets results in proportionally greater surface temperatures and pCO2 for a given incident flux. For planets between 0.5 and 2 R⊕ the effect of these changes results in average global surface temperature deviations of up to 15 K, which suggests that these relationships be considered in future studies of planetary habitability.Furthermore, by coupling this model with the stellar evolution scheme presented in [2] and setting an upper temperature limit of 343 K, the habitable period of the Earth-sized world around the Sun can be quantified. For a 1 R⊕ planet, this limit is approximately 6.35 Gyr after planet formation, or 1.81 Gyr from present day. Additionally, atmospheric CO2 falls below the limit at which C3 and C4 plants can effectively photosynthesize after 5.38 Gyr and 6.1 Gyr respectively, which may initiate a significant reorganization of the biosphere of the planet well before average surface temperatures render it uninhabitable.References: [1] Kopparapu et al. (2013) The Astrophysical Journal 765(2) [2] Rushby et al. (2013) Astrobiology, 13(9), 833-849.

Chemical Mapping of Vesta

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prettyman, Thomas H.; Mittlefehldt, D. W.; Yamashita, N.; Lawrence, D. J.; Beck, A. W.; McSween, H. Y.; Feldman, W. C.; McCoy, T. J.; Titus, T. N.; Toplis, M. J.;

Developing a confidence metric for the Landsat land surface temperature product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laraby, Kelly G.; Schott, John R.; Raqueno, Nina

2016-05-01

Land Surface Temperature (LST) is an important Earth system data record that is useful to fields such as change detection, climate research, environmental monitoring, and smaller scale applications such as agriculture. Certain Earth-observing satellites can be used to derive this metric, and it would be extremely useful if such imagery could be used to develop a global product. Through the support of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS), a LST product for the Landsat series of satellites has been developed. Currently, it has been validated for scenes in North America, with plans to expand to a trusted global product. For ideal atmospheric conditions (e.g. stable atmosphere with no clouds nearby), the LST product underestimates the surface temperature by an average of 0.26 K. When clouds are directly above or near the pixel of interest, however, errors can extend to several Kelvin. As the product approaches public release, our major goal is to develop a quality metric that will provide the user with a per-pixel map of estimated LST errors. There are several sources of error that are involved in the LST calculation process, but performing standard error propagation is a difficult task due to the complexity of the atmospheric propagation component. To circumvent this difficulty, we propose to utilize the relationship between cloud proximity and the error seen in the LST process to help develop a quality metric. This method involves calculating the distance to the nearest cloud from a pixel of interest in a scene, and recording the LST error at that location. Performing this calculation for hundreds of scenes allows us to observe the average LST error for different ranges of distances to the nearest cloud. This paper describes this process in full, and presents results for a large set of Landsat scenes.