The Leicester AATSR Global Analyser (LAGA) - Giving Young Students the Opportunity to Examine Space Observations of Global Climate-Related Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llewellyn-Jones, David; Good, Simon; Corlett, Gary

A pc-based analysis package has been developed, for the dual purposes of, firstly, providing ‘quick-look' capability to research workers inspecting long time-series of global satellite datasets of Sea-surface Temperature (SST); and, secondly, providing an introduction for students, either undergraduates, or advanced high-school students to the characteristics of commonly used analysis techniques for large geophysical data-sets from satellites. Students can also gain insight into the behaviour of some basic climate-related large-scale or global processes. The package gives students immediate access to up to 16 years of continuous global SST data, mainly from the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer, currently flying on ESA's Envisat satellite. The data are available and are presented in the form of monthly averages and spatial averaged to half-degree or one-sixth degree longitude-latitude grids. There are simple button-operated facilities for defining and calculating box-averages; producing time-series of such averages; defining and displaying transects and their evolution over time; and the examination anomalous behaviour by displaying the difference between observed values and values derived from climatological means. By using these facilities a student rapidly gains familiarity with such processes as annual variability, the El Nĩo effect, as well as major current systems n such as the Gulf Stream and other climatically important phenomena. In fact, the student is given immediate insights into the basic methods of examining geophysical data in a research context, without needing to acquire special analysis skills are go trough lengthy data retrieval and preparation procedures which are more generally required, as precursors to serious investigation, in the research laboratory. This software package, called the Leicester AAATSR Global Analyser (LAGA), is written in a well-known and widely used analysis language and the package can be run by using software that is readily available free-of-charge.

Global pattern and controls of soil microbial metabolic quotient

DOE PAGES

Xu, Xiaofeng; Schimel, Joshua P.; Janssens, Ivan A.; ...

2017-05-02

The microbial metabolic quotient (MMQ), microbial respiration per unit of biomass, is a fundamental factor controlling heterotrophic respiration, the largest carbon flux in soils. The magnitude and controls of MMQ at regional scale remain uncertain. We compiled a comprehensive data set of MMQ to investigate the global patterns and controls of MMQ in top 30 cm soils. Published MMQ values, generally measured in laboratory microcosms, were adjusted on ambient soil temperature using long-term (30 yr) average site soil temperature and a Q10 = 2. The area-weighted global average of MMQ_Soil is estimated as 1.8 (1.5–2.2) (95% confidence interval) lmol C•hmore » -1•mmol -1 microbial biomass carbon (MBC) with substantial variations across biomes and between cropland and natural ecosystems. Variation was most closely associated with biological factors, followed by edaphic and meteorological parameters. MMQ_Soil was greatest in sandy clay and sandy clay loam and showed a pH maximum of 6.7 - 0.1 (mean ± se). At large scale, MMQ_Soil varied with latitude and mean annual temperature (MAT), and was negatively correlated with microbial N:P ratio, supporting growth rate theory. These trends led to large differences in MMQ_Soil between natural ecosystems and cropland. When MMQ was adjusted to 11°C (MMQ_Ref), the global MAT in the top 30 cm of soils, the area-weighted global averages of MMQ_Ref was 1.5 (1.3–1.8) lmol C•mmol MBC -1•h -1. The values, trends, and controls of MMQ_Soil add to our understanding of soil microbial influences on soil carbon cycling and could be used to represent microbial activity in global carbon models.« less

Global pattern and controls of soil microbial metabolic quotient

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Xiaofeng; Schimel, Joshua P.; Janssens, Ivan A.

The microbial metabolic quotient (MMQ), microbial respiration per unit of biomass, is a fundamental factor controlling heterotrophic respiration, the largest carbon flux in soils. The magnitude and controls of MMQ at regional scale remain uncertain. We compiled a comprehensive data set of MMQ to investigate the global patterns and controls of MMQ in top 30 cm soils. Published MMQ values, generally measured in laboratory microcosms, were adjusted on ambient soil temperature using long-term (30 yr) average site soil temperature and a Q10 = 2. The area-weighted global average of MMQ_Soil is estimated as 1.8 (1.5–2.2) (95% confidence interval) lmol C•hmore » -1•mmol -1 microbial biomass carbon (MBC) with substantial variations across biomes and between cropland and natural ecosystems. Variation was most closely associated with biological factors, followed by edaphic and meteorological parameters. MMQ_Soil was greatest in sandy clay and sandy clay loam and showed a pH maximum of 6.7 - 0.1 (mean ± se). At large scale, MMQ_Soil varied with latitude and mean annual temperature (MAT), and was negatively correlated with microbial N:P ratio, supporting growth rate theory. These trends led to large differences in MMQ_Soil between natural ecosystems and cropland. When MMQ was adjusted to 11°C (MMQ_Ref), the global MAT in the top 30 cm of soils, the area-weighted global averages of MMQ_Ref was 1.5 (1.3–1.8) lmol C•mmol MBC -1•h -1. The values, trends, and controls of MMQ_Soil add to our understanding of soil microbial influences on soil carbon cycling and could be used to represent microbial activity in global carbon models.« less

Seasonal comparison of two spatially distributed evapotranspiration mapping methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kisfaludi, Balázs; Csáki, Péter; Péterfalvi, József; Primusz, Péter

2017-04-01

More rainfall is disposed of through evapotranspiration (ET) on a global scale than through runoff and storage combined. In Hungary, about 90% of the precipitation evapotranspirates from the land and only 10% goes to surface runoff and groundwater recharge. Therefore, evapotranspiration is a very important element of the water balance, so it is a suitable parameter for the calibration of hydrological models. Monthly ET values of two MODIS-data based ET products were compared for the area of Hungary and for the vegetation period of the year 2008. The differences were assessed by land cover types and by elevation zones. One ET map was the MOD16, aiming at global coverage and provided by the MODIS Global Evaporation Project. The other method is called CREMAP, it was developed at the Budapest University of Technology and Economics for regional scale ET mapping. CREMAP was validated for the area of Hungary with good results, but ET maps were produced only for the period of 2000-2008. The aim of this research was to evaluate the performance of the MOD16 product compared to the CREMAP method. The average difference between the two products was the highest during summer, CREMAP estimating higher ET values by about 25 mm/month. In the spring and autumn, MOD16 ET values were higher by an average of 6 mm/month. The differences by land cover types showed a similar seasonal pattern to the average differences, and they correlated strongly with each other. Practically the same difference values could be calculated for arable lands and forests that together cover nearly 75% of the area of the country. Therefore, it can be said that the seasonal changes had the same effect on the two method's ET estimations in each land cover type areas. The analysis by elevation zones showed that on elevations lower than 200 m AMSL the trends of the difference values were similar to the average differences. The correlation between the values of these elevation zones was also strong. However weaker correlation was found between the values of the elevation zones under and above 200 m AMSL. Therefore, elevation has some effect on the differences between the ET values of the CREMAP and the MOD16 method. This research was supported by the "Agroclimate.2" (VKSZ_12-1-2013-0034) EU-national joint funded research project.

Role of spatial averaging in multicellular gradient sensing.

PubMed

Smith, Tyler; Fancher, Sean; Levchenko, Andre; Nemenman, Ilya; Mugler, Andrew

2016-05-20

Gradient sensing underlies important biological processes including morphogenesis, polarization, and cell migration. The precision of gradient sensing increases with the length of a detector (a cell or group of cells) in the gradient direction, since a longer detector spans a larger range of concentration values. Intuition from studies of concentration sensing suggests that precision should also increase with detector length in the direction transverse to the gradient, since then spatial averaging should reduce the noise. However, here we show that, unlike for concentration sensing, the precision of gradient sensing decreases with transverse length for the simplest gradient sensing model, local excitation-global inhibition. The reason is that gradient sensing ultimately relies on a subtraction of measured concentration values. While spatial averaging indeed reduces the noise in these measurements, which increases precision, it also reduces the covariance between the measurements, which results in the net decrease in precision. We demonstrate how a recently introduced gradient sensing mechanism, regional excitation-global inhibition (REGI), overcomes this effect and recovers the benefit of transverse averaging. Using a REGI-based model, we compute the optimal two- and three-dimensional detector shapes, and argue that they are consistent with the shapes of naturally occurring gradient-sensing cell populations.

Role of spatial averaging in multicellular gradient sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Tyler; Fancher, Sean; Levchenko, Andre; Nemenman, Ilya; Mugler, Andrew

2016-06-01

Gradient sensing underlies important biological processes including morphogenesis, polarization, and cell migration. The precision of gradient sensing increases with the length of a detector (a cell or group of cells) in the gradient direction, since a longer detector spans a larger range of concentration values. Intuition from studies of concentration sensing suggests that precision should also increase with detector length in the direction transverse to the gradient, since then spatial averaging should reduce the noise. However, here we show that, unlike for concentration sensing, the precision of gradient sensing decreases with transverse length for the simplest gradient sensing model, local excitation-global inhibition. The reason is that gradient sensing ultimately relies on a subtraction of measured concentration values. While spatial averaging indeed reduces the noise in these measurements, which increases precision, it also reduces the covariance between the measurements, which results in the net decrease in precision. We demonstrate how a recently introduced gradient sensing mechanism, regional excitation-global inhibition (REGI), overcomes this effect and recovers the benefit of transverse averaging. Using a REGI-based model, we compute the optimal two- and three-dimensional detector shapes, and argue that they are consistent with the shapes of naturally occurring gradient-sensing cell populations.

Insights from a Regime Decomposition Approach on CERES and CloudSat-inferred Cloud Radiative Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oreopoulos, L.; Cho, N.; Lee, D.

2015-12-01

Our knowledge of the Cloud Radiative Effect (CRE) not only at the Top-of-the-Atmosphere (TOA), but also (with the help of some modeling) at the surface (SFC) and within the atmospheric column (ATM) has been steadily growing in recent years. Not only do we have global values for these CREs, but we can now also plot global maps of their geographical distribution. The next step in our effort to advance our knowledge of CRE is to systematically assess the contributions of prevailing cloud systems to the global values. The presentation addresses this issue directly. We identify the world's prevailing cloud systems, which we call "Cloud Regimes" (CRs) via clustering analysis of MODIS (Aqua-Terra) daily joint histograms of Cloud Top Pressure and Cloud Optical Thickness (TAU) at 1 degree scales. We then composite CERES diurnal values of CRE (TOA, SFC, ATM) separately for each CR by averaging these values for each CR occurrence, and thus find the contribution of each CR to the global value of CRE. But we can do more. We can actually decompose vertical profiles of inferred instantaneous CRE from CloudSat/CALIPSO (2B-FLXHR-LIDAR product) by averaging over Aqua CR occurrences (since A-Train formation flying allows collocation). Such an analysis greatly enhances our understanding of the radiative importance of prevailing cloud mixtures at different atmospheric levels. We can, for example, in addition to examining whether the CERES findings on which CRs contribute to radiative cooling and warming of the atmospheric column are consistent with CloudSat, also gain insight on why and where exactly this happens from the shape of the full instantaneous CRE vertical profiles.

Analysis of weather changes in the region of Surabaya in 2015 and 2016 using water vapor data from GPS and Terra MODIS satellite image

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahyadi, M. N.; Audah, S.; Mutia, N.; Aliyan, S. A.

2017-07-01

Sea surface temperature conditions in the territorial waters of Indonesia can be used as one indicator of a lot or least the content of water vapor in the atmosphere. It is closely related to the process of cloud formation in the region of Indonesia. Surabaya is the capital of the Indonesia's second largest potential for the occurrence of global warming due to climate change around the region. Global warming has the consequence of occurrence of climate variability, with marked by changes in temperature, and rainfall, as well as runoff of water. Monitoring the space-based Global Positioning System (GPS) and remote sensing satellite data such as Terra MODIS can be used in the field of meteorology. That is to measured the level of water vapor globally, with the approach of the amount of precipitable water vapor (PWV) in the atmosphere layer. It can be seen humidity conditions and the potential occurrence of rainfall in an area. The PWV value obtained from GPS processing had range 25.13 mm - 32.87 mm; average value is 27.38 mm and standard deviation is 2.018 mm. Based on the diurnal variation of the PWV GPS indicates that the climatic conditions in the area of Surabaya in 2015 showed the dry season, this is because the average values of PWV pretty low that occurred in July-September. But in September 2015 the PWV value occurrence an increase in water vapor and can be estimated that in the next month will be approaching rainy season.

Re-evaluation of forest biomass carbon stocks and lessons from the world's most carbon-dense forests.

PubMed

Keith, Heather; Mackey, Brendan G; Lindenmayer, David B

2009-07-14

From analysis of published global site biomass data (n = 136) from primary forests, we discovered (i) the world's highest known total biomass carbon density (living plus dead) of 1,867 tonnes carbon per ha (average value from 13 sites) occurs in Australian temperate moist Eucalyptus regnans forests, and (ii) average values of the global site biomass data were higher for sampled temperate moist forests (n = 44) than for sampled tropical (n = 36) and boreal (n = 52) forests (n is number of sites per forest biome). Spatially averaged Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change biome default values are lower than our average site values for temperate moist forests, because the temperate biome contains a diversity of forest ecosystem types that support a range of mature carbon stocks or have a long land-use history with reduced carbon stocks. We describe a framework for identifying forests important for carbon storage based on the factors that account for high biomass carbon densities, including (i) relatively cool temperatures and moderately high precipitation producing rates of fast growth but slow decomposition, and (ii) older forests that are often multiaged and multilayered and have experienced minimal human disturbance. Our results are relevant to negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change regarding forest conservation, management, and restoration. Conserving forests with large stocks of biomass from deforestation and degradation avoids significant carbon emissions to the atmosphere, irrespective of the source country, and should be among allowable mitigation activities. Similarly, management that allows restoration of a forest's carbon sequestration potential also should be recognized.

Re-evaluation of forest biomass carbon stocks and lessons from the world's most carbon-dense forests

PubMed Central

Keith, Heather; Mackey, Brendan G.; Lindenmayer, David B.

2009-01-01

From analysis of published global site biomass data (n = 136) from primary forests, we discovered (i) the world's highest known total biomass carbon density (living plus dead) of 1,867 tonnes carbon per ha (average value from 13 sites) occurs in Australian temperate moist Eucalyptus regnans forests, and (ii) average values of the global site biomass data were higher for sampled temperate moist forests (n = 44) than for sampled tropical (n = 36) and boreal (n = 52) forests (n is number of sites per forest biome). Spatially averaged Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change biome default values are lower than our average site values for temperate moist forests, because the temperate biome contains a diversity of forest ecosystem types that support a range of mature carbon stocks or have a long land-use history with reduced carbon stocks. We describe a framework for identifying forests important for carbon storage based on the factors that account for high biomass carbon densities, including (i) relatively cool temperatures and moderately high precipitation producing rates of fast growth but slow decomposition, and (ii) older forests that are often multiaged and multilayered and have experienced minimal human disturbance. Our results are relevant to negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change regarding forest conservation, management, and restoration. Conserving forests with large stocks of biomass from deforestation and degradation avoids significant carbon emissions to the atmosphere, irrespective of the source country, and should be among allowable mitigation activities. Similarly, management that allows restoration of a forest's carbon sequestration potential also should be recognized. PMID:19553199

Cloud Inhomogeneity from MODIS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Cahalan, Robert F.

2004-01-01

Two full months (July 2003 and January 2004) of MODIS Atmosphere Level-3 data from the Terra and Aqua satellites are analyzed in order to characterize the horizontal variability of cloud optical thickness and water path at global scales. Various options to derive cloud variability parameters are discussed. The climatology of cloud inhomogeneity is built by first calculating daily parameter values at spatial scales of l degree x 1 degree, and then at zonal and global scales, followed by averaging over monthly time scales. Geographical, diurnal, and seasonal changes of inhomogeneity parameters are examined separately for the two cloud phases, and separately over land and ocean. We find that cloud inhomogeneity is weaker in summer than in winter, weaker over land than ocean for liquid clouds, weaker for local morning than local afternoon, about the same for liquid and ice clouds on a global scale, but with wider probability distribution functions (PDFs) and larger latitudinal variations for ice, and relatively insensitive to whether water path or optical thickness products are used. Typical mean values at hemispheric and global scales of the inhomogeneity parameter nu (roughly the mean over the standard deviation of water path or optical thickness), range from approximately 2.5 to 3, while for the inhomogeneity parameter chi (the ratio of the logarithmic to linear mean) from approximately 0.7 to 0.8. Values of chi for zonal averages can occasionally fall below 0.6 and for individual gridpoints below 0.5. Our results demonstrate that MODIS is capable of revealing significant fluctuations in cloud horizontal inhomogenity and stress the need to model their global radiative effect in future studies.

The Impact of Different Sources of Fluctuations on Mutual Information in Biochemical Networks

PubMed Central

Chevalier, Michael; Venturelli, Ophelia; El-Samad, Hana

2015-01-01

Stochastic fluctuations in signaling and gene expression limit the ability of cells to sense the state of their environment, transfer this information along cellular pathways, and respond to it with high precision. Mutual information is now often used to quantify the fidelity with which information is transmitted along a cellular pathway. Mutual information calculations from experimental data have mostly generated low values, suggesting that cells might have relatively low signal transmission fidelity. In this work, we demonstrate that mutual information calculations might be artificially lowered by cell-to-cell variability in both initial conditions and slowly fluctuating global factors across the population. We carry out our analysis computationally using a simple signaling pathway and demonstrate that in the presence of slow global fluctuations, every cell might have its own high information transmission capacity but that population averaging underestimates this value. We also construct a simple synthetic transcriptional network and demonstrate using experimental measurements coupled to computational modeling that its operation is dominated by slow global variability, and hence that its mutual information is underestimated by a population averaged calculation. PMID:26484538

An ensemble-based dynamic Bayesian averaging approach for discharge simulations using multiple global precipitation products and hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo; Yang, Hong; Sweetapple, Chris

2018-03-01

Global precipitation products are very important datasets in flow simulations, especially in poorly gauged regions. Uncertainties resulting from precipitation products, hydrological models and their combinations vary with time and data magnitude, and undermine their application to flow simulations. However, previous studies have not quantified these uncertainties individually and explicitly. This study developed an ensemble-based dynamic Bayesian averaging approach (e-Bay) for deterministic discharge simulations using multiple global precipitation products and hydrological models. In this approach, the joint probability of precipitation products and hydrological models being correct is quantified based on uncertainties in maximum and mean estimation, posterior probability is quantified as functions of the magnitude and timing of discharges, and the law of total probability is implemented to calculate expected discharges. Six global fine-resolution precipitation products and two hydrological models of different complexities are included in an illustrative application. e-Bay can effectively quantify uncertainties and therefore generate better deterministic discharges than traditional approaches (weighted average methods with equal and varying weights and maximum likelihood approach). The mean Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values of e-Bay are up to 0.97 and 0.85 in training and validation periods respectively, which are at least 0.06 and 0.13 higher than traditional approaches. In addition, with increased training data, assessment criteria values of e-Bay show smaller fluctuations than traditional approaches and its performance becomes outstanding. The proposed e-Bay approach bridges the gap between global precipitation products and their pragmatic applications to discharge simulations, and is beneficial to water resources management in ungauged or poorly gauged regions across the world.

Positive biodiversity-productivity relationship predominant in global forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liang, Jingjing; Crowther, Thomas W.; Picard, Nicolas; Wiser, Susan; Zhou, Mo; Alberti, Giorgio; Schulze, Ernst-Detlef; McGuire, Anthony David; ,

2016-01-01

The relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem productivity has been explored in detail in herbaceous vegetation, but patterns in forests are far less well understood. Liang et al. have amassed a global forest data set from >770,000 sample plots in 44 countries. A positive and consistent relationship can be discerned between tree diversity and ecosystem productivity at landscape, country, and ecoregion scales. On average, a 10% loss in biodiversity leads to a 3% loss in productivity. This means that the economic value of maintaining biodiversity for the sake of global forest productivity is more than fivefold greater than global conservation costs.

Seasonal Forecasting of Fire Weather Based on a New Global Fire Weather Database

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dowdy, Andrew J.; Field, Robert D.; Spessa, Allan C.

2016-01-01

Seasonal forecasting of fire weather is examined based on a recently produced global database of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) system beginning in 1980. Seasonal average values of the FWI are examined in relation to measures of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The results are used to examine seasonal forecasts of fire weather conditions throughout the world.

Palaeomagnetism of the Upper Miocene- Lower Pliocene lavas from the East Carpathians: contribution to the paleosecular variation of geomagnetic field

PubMed Central

Vişan, Mădălina; Panaiotu, Cristian G.; Necula, Cristian; Dumitru, Anca

2016-01-01

Investigations of the paleosecular variation of the geomagnetic field on geological timescales depend on globally distributed data sets from lava flows. We report new paleomagnetic results from lava flows of the East Carpathian Mountains (23.6°E, 46.4°N) erupted between 4 and 6 Ma. The average virtual geomagnetic pole position (76 sites) includes the North Geographic Pole and the dispersion of virtual geomagnetic poles is in general agreement with the data of the Time Averaged geomagnetic Field Initiative. Based on this study and previous results from the East Carpathians obtained from 0.04–4 Ma old lava flows, we show that high value of dispersion are characteristic only for 1.5–2.8 Ma old lava flows. High values of dispersion during the Matuyama chron are also reported around 50°N, in the global paleosecular variation data set. More data are needed at a global level to determine if these high dispersions reflect the behaviour of the geomagnetic field or an artefact of inadequate number of sites. This study of the East Carpathians volcanic rocks brings new data from southeastern Europe and which can contribute to the databases for time averaged field and paleosecular variation from lavas in the last 6 Ma. PMID:26997549

The storage capacity of Potts models for semantic memory retrieval

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kropff, Emilio; Treves, Alessandro

2005-08-01

We introduce and analyse a minimal network model of semantic memory in the human brain. The model is a global associative memory structured as a collection of N local modules, each coding a feature, which can take S possible values, with a global sparseness a (the average fraction of features describing a concept). We show that, under optimal conditions, the number cM of modules connected on average to a module can range widely between very sparse connectivity (high dilution, c_{M}/N\\to 0 ) and full connectivity (c_{M}\\to N ), maintaining a global network storage capacity (the maximum number pc of stored and retrievable concepts) that scales like pc~cMS2/a, with logarithmic corrections consistent with the constraint that each synapse may store up to a fraction of a bit.

The Effect of Spatial and Spectral Resolution in Determining NDVI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boelman, N. T.

2003-12-01

We explore the impact that varying spatial and spectral resolutions of several sensors (a field portable spectroradiometer, Landsat, MODIS and AVHRR) has in determining the average Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at Imnavait Creek, a small arctic tundra watershed located on the north slope of Alaska. We found that at the field-of-views (FOVs) of less than 20 m2 that were sampled, the average NDVI value for this watershed is 0.65, compared to 0.77 at FOVs equal to and greater than 20 m2. In addition, we found that at FOVs less than 20 m2, the average NDVI value calculated according to each of Landsat, MODIS and AVHRR band definitions (controlled by spectral resolution) was similar. However, at FOVs equal to and greater than 20 m2, the average NDVI value calculated according to AVHRR's broad-band definitions was significantly and consistently higher than that from both Landsat and MODIS's narrow-band NDVI values. We speculate that these differences in NDVI exist because high leaf-area-index vegetation communities associated with watertracks are commonly spaced between 10 and 20 m apart in arctic tundra landscapes and are often only included when spectral sampling is conducted at FOVs greater than tens of square meters. These results suggest that both spatial resolution alone and its interaction with spectral resolution have to be considered when interpreting commonly used global-scale NDVI datasets. This is because traditionally, the fundamental relationships established between NDVI and ecosystem parameters, such as CO2 fluxes, aboveground biomass and net primary productivity, have been established at scales less than 20 m2. Other ecosystems, such as landscapes with isolated tree islands in boreal forest-tundra ecotones, may exhibit similar scaling patterns that need to be considered when interpreting global-scale NDVI datasets.

Critical Elements in Fly Ash from the Combustion of Bituminous Coal in Major Polish Power Plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bielowicz, Barbara; Botor, Dariusz; Misiak, Jacek; Wagner, Marian

2018-03-01

The concentration of critical elements, including such REE as Fe, Co, W, Zn, Cr, Ni, V, Mn, Ti, Ag, Ga, Ta, Sr, Li, and Cu, in the so-called fly ash obtained from the 9 Polish power plants and 1 thermal power station has been determined. The obtained values, compared with the global average concentration in bituminous coal ash and sedimentary rocks (Clarke values), have shown that the enrichment of fly ash in the specified elements takes place in only a few bituminous coal processing sites in Poland. The enrichment factor (EF) is only slightly higher (the same order of magnitude) than the Clarke values. The enrichment factor in relation to the Clarke value in the Earth's crust reached values above 10 in all of the examined ashes for the following elements: Cr, Ni, V, W, and, in some ash samples, also Cu and Zn. The obtained values are low, only slightly higher than the global average concentrations in sedimentary rocks and bituminous coal ashes. The ferromagnetic grains (microspheres) found in bituminous coal fly ashes seem to be the most economically prospective in recovery of selected critical elements. The microanalysis has shown that iron cenospheres and plerospheres in fly ash contain, in addition to enamel and iron oxides (magnetite and hematite), iron spinels enriched in Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, W, and Zn.

A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22: Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, K. H.; Hedin, A. E.

1986-01-01

Using the dynamo theory method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

Estimating direct, diffuse, and global solar radiation for various cities in Iran by two methods and their comparison with the measured data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ashjaee, M.; Roomina, M.R.; Ghafouri-Azar, R.

1993-05-01

Two computational methods for calculating hourly, daily, and monthly average values of direct, diffuse, and global solar radiation on horizontal collectors have been presented in this article for location with different latitude, altitude, and atmospheric conditions in Iran. These methods were developed using two different independent sets of measured data from the Iranian Meteorological Organization (IMO) for two cities in Iran (Tehran and Isfahan) during 14 years of measurement for Tehran and 4 years of measurement for Isfahan. Comparison of calculated monthly average global solar radiation, using the two models for Tehran and Isfahan with measured data from the IMO,more » has indicated a good agreement between them. Then these developed methods were extended to another location (city of Bandar-Abbas), where measured data are not available. But the work of Daneshyar predicts its monthly global radiation. The maximum discrepancy of 7% between the developed models and the work of Daneshyar was observed.« less

Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands

PubMed Central

Gao, Qingzhu; Zhu, Wenquan; Schwartz, Mark W.; Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Williamson, Matthew A.; Li, Yue

2016-01-01

Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2–71.2% during 1982–2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms. PMID:27243565

Aerosol-Induced Radiative Flux Changes Off the United States Mid-Atlantic Coast: Comparison of Values Calculated from Sunphotometer and In Situ Data with Those Measured by Airborne Pyranometer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, P. B.; Livingston, J. M.; Hignett, P.; Kinne, S.; Wong, J.; Chien, A.; Bergstrom, R.; Durkee, P.; Hobbs, P. V.

2000-01-01

The Tropospheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing Observational Experiment (TARFOX) measured a variety of aerosol radiative effects (including flux changes) while simultaneously measuring the chemical, physical, and optical properties of the responsible aerosol particles. Here we use TARFOX-determined aerosol and surface properties to compute shortwave radiative flux changes for a variety of aerosol situations, with midvisible optical depths ranging from 0.06 to 0.55. We calculate flux changes by several techniques with varying degrees of sophistication, in part to investigate the sensitivity of results to computational approach. We then compare computed flux changes to those determined from aircraft measurements. Calculations using several approaches yield downward and upward flux changes that agree with measurements. The agreement demonstrates closure (i.e. consistency) among the TARFOX-derived aerosol properties, modeling techniques, and radiative flux measurements. Agreement between calculated and measured downward flux changes is best when the aerosols are modeled as moderately absorbing (midvisible single-scattering albedos between about 0.89 and 0.93), in accord with independent measurements of the TARPOX aerosol. The calculated values for instantaneous daytime upwelling flux changes are in the range +14 to +48 W/sq m for midvisible optical depths between 0.2 and 0.55. These values are about 30 to 100 times the global-average direct forcing expected for the global-average sulfate aerosol optical depth of 0.04. The reasons for the larger flux changes in TARFOX include the relatively large optical depths and the focus on cloud-free, daytime conditions over the dark ocean surface. These are the conditions that produce major aerosol radiative forcing events and contribute to any global-average climate effect.

The radiation balance of the earth-atmosphere system from Nimbus 3 radiation measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raschke, E.; Vonderhaar, T. H.; Pasternak, M.; Bandeen, W. R.

1973-01-01

The radiation balance of the earth-atmosphere system and its components was computed from global measurements of radiation reflected and emitted from the earth to space. These measurements were made from the meteorological satellite Nimbus 3 during the periods from April 16 to August 15, 1969; October 3 to 17, 1969; and January 21 to February 3, 1970. Primarily the method of evaluation, its inherent assumptions, and possible error sources were discussed. Results are presented by various methods: (1) global, hemispherical, and zonal averages obtained from measurements in all semimonthly periods and (2) global maps of the absorbed solar radiation, the albedo, the outgoing longwave radiation, and the radiation balance obtained from measurements during semimonthly periods in each season (May 1 to 15, July 16 to 31, and October 3 to 17, 1969, and January 21 to February 3, 1970). Annual global averages of the albedo and of the outgoing longwave radiation were determined. These values balance to within 1 percent the annual global energy input by solar radiation that was computed for a solar constant.

An Estimation of the Likelihood of Significant Eruptions During 2000-2009 Using Poisson Statistics on Two-Point Moving Averages of the Volcanic Time Series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2001-01-01

Since 1750, the number of cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (volcanic explosivity index (VEI)>=4) per decade spans 2-11, with 96 percent located in the tropics and extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere. A two-point moving average of the volcanic time series has higher values since the 1860's than before, being 8.00 in the 1910's (the highest value) and 6.50 in the 1980's, the highest since the 1910's peak. Because of the usual behavior of the first difference of the two-point moving averages, one infers that its value for the 1990's will measure approximately 6.50 +/- 1, implying that approximately 7 +/- 4 cataclysmic volcanic eruptions should be expected during the present decade (2000-2009). Because cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (especially those having VEI>=5) nearly always have been associated with short-term episodes of global cooling, the occurrence of even one might confuse our ability to assess the effects of global warming. Poisson probability distributions reveal that the probability of one or more events with a VEI>=4 within the next ten years is >99 percent. It is approximately 49 percent for an event with a VEI>=5, and 18 percent for an event with a VEI>=6. Hence, the likelihood that a climatically significant volcanic eruption will occur within the next ten years appears reasonably high.

Improved simulation of group averaged CO2 surface concentrations using GEOS-Chem and fluxes from VEGAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Z. H.; Zhu, J.; Zeng, N.

2013-01-01

CO2 measurements have been combined with simulated CO2 distributions from a transport model in order to produce the optimal estimates of CO2 surface fluxes in inverse modeling. However one persistent problem in using model-observation comparisons for this goal relates to the issue of compatibility. Observations at a single site reflect all underlying processes of various scales that usually cannot be fully resolved by model simulations at the grid points nearest the site due to lack of spatial or temporal resolution or missing processes in models. In this article we group site observations of multiple stations according to atmospheric mixing regimes and surface characteristics. The group averaged values of CO2 concentration from model simulations and observations are used to evaluate the regional model results. Using the group averaged measurements of CO2 reduces the noise of individual stations. The difference of group averaged values between observation and modeled results reflects the uncertainties of the large scale flux in the region where the grouped stations are. We compared the group averaged values between model results with two biospheric fluxes from the model Carnegie-Ames-Stanford-Approach (CASA) and VEgetation-Global-Atmosphere-Soil (VEGAS) and observations to evaluate the regional model results. Results show that the modeling group averaged values of CO2 concentrations in all regions with fluxes from VEGAS have significant improvements for most regions. There is still large difference between two model results and observations for grouped average values in North Atlantic, Indian Ocean, and South Pacific Tropics. This implies possible large uncertainties in the fluxes there.

Global atmospheric circulation statistics: Four year averages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, M. F.; Geller, M. A.; Nash, E. R.; Gelman, M. E.

1987-01-01

Four year averages of the monthly mean global structure of the general circulation of the atmosphere are presented in the form of latitude-altitude, time-altitude, and time-latitude cross sections. The numerical values are given in tables. Basic parameters utilized include daily global maps of temperature and geopotential height for 18 pressure levels between 1000 and 0.4 mb for the period December 1, 1978 through November 30, 1982 supplied by NOAA/NMC. Geopotential heights and geostrophic winds are constructed using hydrostatic and geostrophic formulae. Meridional and vertical velocities are calculated using thermodynamic and continuity equations. Fields presented in this report are zonally averaged temperature, zonal, meridional, and vertical winds, and amplitude of the planetary waves in geopotential height with zonal wave numbers 1-3. The northward fluxes of sensible heat and eastward momentum by the standing and transient eddies along with their wavenumber decomposition and Eliassen-Palm flux propagation vectors and divergences by the standing and transient eddies along with their wavenumber decomposition are also given. Large interhemispheric differences and year-to-year variations are found to originate in the changes in the planetary wave activity.

Rainfall extremes from TRMM data and the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zorzetto, Enrico; Marani, Marco

2017-04-01

A reliable quantification of the probability of weather extremes occurrence is essential for designing resilient water infrastructures and hazard mitigation measures. However, it is increasingly clear that the presence of inter-annual climatic fluctuations determines a substantial long-term variability in the frequency of occurrence of extreme events. This circumstance questions the foundation of the traditional extreme value theory, hinged on stationary Poisson processes or on asymptotic assumptions to derive the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. We illustrate here, with application to daily rainfall, a new approach to extreme value analysis, the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD). The MEVD relaxes the above assumptions and is based on the whole distribution of daily rainfall events, thus allowing optimal use of all available observations. Using a global dataset of rain gauge observations, we show that the MEVD significantly outperforms the Generalized Extreme Value distribution, particularly for long average recurrence intervals and when small samples are available. The latter property suggests MEVD to be particularly suited for applications to satellite rainfall estimates, which only cover two decades, thus making extreme value estimation extremely challenging. Here we apply MEVD to the TRMM TMPA 3B42 product, an 18-year dataset of remotely-sensed daily rainfall providing a quasi-global coverage. Our analyses yield a global scale mapping of daily rainfall extremes and of their distributional tail properties, bridging the existing large gaps in ground-based networks. Finally, we illustrate how our global-scale analysis can provide insight into how properties of local rainfall regimes affect tail estimation uncertainty when using the GEV or MEVD approach. We find a dependence of the estimation uncertainty, for both the GEV- and MEV-based approaches, on the average annual number and on the inter-annual variability of rainy days. In particular, estimation uncertainty decreases 1) as the mean annual number of wet days increases, and 2) as the variability in the number of rainy days, expressed by its coefficient of variation, decreases. We tentatively explain this behavior in terms of the assumptions underlying the two approaches.

Some characteristic differences in the earth's radiation budget over land and ocean derived from the Nimbus-7 ERB experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kyle, H. L.; Vasanth, K. L.

1986-01-01

Broad spectral band data derived from the Nimbus-7 Earth Radiation Budget experiment are analyzed for the top-of-the-atmosphere noon vs. midnight variations in the exitant longwave flux density, spectral variations in the regional albedos, and differences in land and ocean net radiation budgets. The data were studied for a year (June 1979 to May 1980) on a global scale and for five selected study areas. The annual global total, near-UV visible, and near-IR albedo values, obtained were 30.2, 34.6, and 25.9, respectively, with marked differences in behavior between oceanic and continental regions. Over the continents, clouds and snow sharply decreased the near-IR albedo. The over-the-continent noon-emitted flux density averages were 15-25 W/sq m larger than the midnight values, with large regional and seasonal variations. Over the oceans, the average noon and midnight outgoing longwave-flux densities were nearly identical, with regional aqnd seasonal differences of several watts per square meter.

Global Distributions of Temperature Variances At Different Stratospheric Altitudes From Gps/met Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavrilov, N. M.; Karpova, N. V.; Jacobi, Ch.

The GPS/MET measurements at altitudes 5 - 35 km are used to obtain global distribu- tions of small-scale temperature variances at different stratospheric altitudes. Individ- ual temperature profiles are smoothed using second order polynomial approximations in 5 - 7 km thick layers centered at 10, 20 and 30 km. Temperature inclinations from the averaged values and their variances obtained for each profile are averaged for each month of year during the GPS/MET experiment. Global distributions of temperature variances have inhomogeneous structure. Locations and latitude distributions of the maxima and minima of the variances depend on altitudes and season. One of the rea- sons for the small-scale temperature perturbations in the stratosphere could be internal gravity waves (IGWs). Some assumptions are made about peculiarities of IGW gener- ation and propagation in the tropo-stratosphere based on the results of GPS/MET data analysis.

On the Relationship Between Global Land-Ocean Temperature and Various Descriptors of Solar-Geomagnetic Activity and Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2014-01-01

Examined are sunspot cycle- (SC-) length averages of the annual January-December values of the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index () in relation to SC-length averages of annual values of various descriptors of solar-geomagnetic activity and climate, incorporating lags of 0-5 yr. For the overall interval SC12-SC23, the is inferred to correlate best against the parameter incorporating lag = 5 yr, where the parameter refers to the resultant aa value having removed that portion of the annual aa average value due to the yearly variation of sunspot number (SSN). The inferred correlation between the and is statistically important at confidence level cl > 99.9%, having a coefficient of linear correlation r = 0.865 and standard error of estimate se = 0.149 degC. Excluding the most recent cycles SC22 and SC23, the inferred correlation is stronger, having r = 0.969 and se = 0.048 degC. With respect to the overall trend in the , which has been upwards towards warmer temperatures since SC12 (1878-1888), solar-geomagnetic activity parameters are now trending downwards (since SC19). For SC20-SC23, in contrast, comparison of the against SC-length averages of the annual value of the Mauna Loa carbon dioxide () index is found to be highly statistically important (cl >> 99.9%), having r = 0.9994 and se = 0.012 degC for lag = 2 yr. On the basis of the inferred preferential linear correlation between the and , the current ongoing SC24 is inferred to have warmer than was seen in SC23 (i.e., >0.526 degC), probably in excess of 0.68 degC (relative to the 1951-1980 base period).

Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Exbrayat, Jean-François; Bloom, A. Anthony; Falloon, Pete; Ito, Akihiko; Smallman, T. Luke; Williams, Mathew

2018-02-01

Multi-model averaging techniques provide opportunities to extract additional information from large ensembles of simulations. In particular, present-day model skill can be used to evaluate their potential performance in future climate simulations. Multi-model averaging methods have been used extensively in climate and hydrological sciences, but they have not been used to constrain projected plant productivity responses to climate change, which is a major uncertainty in Earth system modelling. Here, we use three global observationally orientated estimates of current net primary productivity (NPP) to perform a reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method using 30 global simulations of the 21st century change in NPP based on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) business as usual emissions scenario. We find that the three REA methods support an increase in global NPP by the end of the 21st century (2095-2099) compared to 2001-2005, which is 2-3 % stronger than the ensemble ISIMIP mean value of 24.2 Pg C y-1. Using REA also leads to a 45-68 % reduction in the global uncertainty of 21st century NPP projection, which strengthens confidence in the resilience of the CO2 fertilization effect to climate change. This reduction in uncertainty is especially clear for boreal ecosystems although it may be an artefact due to the lack of representation of nutrient limitations on NPP in most models. Conversely, the large uncertainty that remains on the sign of the response of NPP in semi-arid regions points to the need for better observations and model development in these regions.

Global Sensitivity Analysis and Parameter Calibration for an Ecosystem Carbon Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safta, C.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Sargsyan, K.; Najm, H. N.; Debusschere, B.; Thornton, P. E.

2013-12-01

We present uncertainty quantification results for a process-based ecosystem carbon model. The model employs 18 parameters and is driven by meteorological data corresponding to years 1992-2006 at the Harvard Forest site. Daily Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) observations were available to calibrate the model parameters and test the performance of the model. Posterior distributions show good predictive capabilities for the calibrated model. A global sensitivity analysis was first performed to determine the important model parameters based on their contribution to the variance of NEE. We then proceed to calibrate the model parameters in a Bayesian framework. The daily discrepancies between measured and predicted NEE values were modeled as independent and identically distributed Gaussians with prescribed daily variance according to the recorded instrument error. All model parameters were assumed to have uninformative priors with bounds set according to expert opinion. The global sensitivity results show that the rate of leaf fall (LEAFALL) is responsible for approximately 25% of the total variance in the average NEE for 1992-2005. A set of 4 other parameters, Nitrogen use efficiency (NUE), base rate for maintenance respiration (BR_MR), growth respiration fraction (RG_FRAC), and allocation to plant stem pool (ASTEM) contribute between 5% and 12% to the variance in average NEE, while the rest of the parameters have smaller contributions. The posterior distributions, sampled with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, exhibit significant correlations between model parameters. However LEAFALL, the most important parameter for the average NEE, is not informed by the observational data, while less important parameters show significant updates between their prior and posterior densities. The Fisher information matrix values, indicating which parameters are most informed by the experimental observations, are examined to augment the comparison between the calibration and global sensitivity analysis results.

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) and Database for Mission Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; Duvall, Aleta; Johnson, D. L.

2003-01-01

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2001) is an engineering-level Mars atmosphere model widely used for many Mars mission applications. From 0-80 km, it is based on NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model, while above 80 km it is based on Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model. Mars-GRAM 2001 and MGCM use surface topography from Mars Global Surveyor Mars Orbiting Laser Altimeter. Validation studies are described comparing Mars-GRAM with Mars Global Surveyor Radio Science and Thermal Emission Spectrometer data. RS data from 2480 profiles were used, covering latitudes 75 deg S to 72 deg N, surface to approximately 40 km, for seasons ranging from areocentric longitude of Sun (Ls) = 70-160 deg and 265-310 deg. RS data spanned a range of local times, mostly 0-9 hours and 18-24 hours. For interests in aerocapture and precision landing, comparisons concentrated on atmospheric density. At a fixed height of 20 km, RS density varied by about a factor of 2.5 over ranges of latitudes and Ls values observed. Evaluated at matching positions and times, these figures show average RSMars-GRAM density ratios were generally 1+/-)0.05, except at heights above approximately 25 km and latitudes above approximately 50 deg N. Average standard deviation of RSMars-GRAM density ratio was 6%. TES data were used covering surface to approximately 40 km, over more than a full Mars year (February, 1999 - June, 2001, just before start of a Mars global dust storm). Depending on season, TES data covered latitudes 85 deg S to 85 deg N. Most TES data were concentrated near local times 2 hours and 14 hours. Observed average TES/Mars-GRAM density ratios were generally 1+/-0.05, except at high altitudes (15-30 km, depending on season) and high latitudes (greater than 45 deg N), or at most altitudes in the southern hemisphere at Ls approximately 90 and 180 deg. Compared to TES averages for a given latitude and season, TES data had average density standard deviation about the mean of approximately 2.5% for all data, or approximately 1-4%, depending on time of day and dust optical depth. Average standard deviation of TES/Mars-GRAM density ratio was 8.9% for local time 2 hours and 7.1% for local time 14 hours. Thus standard deviation of observed TES/Mars-GRAM density ratio, evaluated at matching positions and times, is about three times the standard deviation of TES data about the TES mean value at a given position and season.

Distributions of phytoplankton carbohydrate, protein and lipid in the world oceans from satellite ocean colour.

PubMed

Roy, Shovonlal

2018-06-01

Energy value of phytoplankton regulates the growth of higher trophic species, affecting the tropic balance and sustainability of marine food webs. Therefore, developing our capability to estimate and monitor, on a global scale, the concentrations of macromolecules that determine phytoplankton energy value, would be invaluable. Reported here are the first estimates of carbohydrate, protein, lipid, and overall energy value of phytoplankton in the world oceans, using ocean-colour data from satellites. The estimates are based on a novel bio-optical method that utilises satellite-derived bio-optical fingerprints of living phytoplankton combined with allometric relationships between phytoplankton cells and cellular macromolecular contents. The annually averaged phytoplankton energy value, per cubic metre of sub-surface ocean, varied from less than 0.1 kJ in subtropical gyres, to 0.5-1.0 kJ in parts of the equatorial, northern and southern latitudes, and rising to >10 kJ in certain coastal and optically complex waters. The annually averaged global stocks of carbohydrate, protein and lipid were 0.044, 0.17 and 0.108 gigatonnes, respectively, with monthly stocks highest in September and lowest in June, over 1997-2013. The fractional contributions of phytoplankton size classes e.g., picoplankton, nanoplankton and microplankton to surface concentrations and global stocks of macromolecules varied considerably across marine biomes classified as Longhurst provinces. Among these provinces, the highest annually averaged surface concentrations of carbohydrate, protein, and lipid were in North-East Atlantic Coastal Shelves, whereas, the lowest concentration of carbohydrate or lipid were in North Atlantic Tropical Gyral, and that of protein was in North Pacific Subtropical Gyre West. The regional accuracy of the estimates and their sensitivity to satellite inputs are quantified from the bio-optical model, which show promise for possible operational monitoring of phytoplankton energy value from satellite ocean colour. Adequate in situ measurements of macromolecules and improved retrievals of inherent optical properties from high-resolution satellite images, would be required to validate these estimates at local sites, and to further improve their accuracy in the world oceans.

Global Intraurban Intake Fractions for Primary Air Pollutants from Vehicles and Other Distributed Sources

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

We model intraurban intake fraction (iF) values for distributed ground-level emissions in all 3646 global cities with more than 100 000 inhabitants, encompassing a total population of 2.0 billion. For conserved primary pollutants, population-weighted median, mean, and interquartile range iF values are 26, 39, and 14–52 ppm, respectively, where 1 ppm signifies 1 g inhaled/t emitted. The global mean urban iF reported here is roughly twice as large as previous estimates for cities in the United States and Europe. Intake fractions vary among cities owing to differences in population size, population density, and meteorology. Sorting by size, population-weighted mean iF values are 65, 35, and 15 ppm, respectively, for cities with populations larger than 3, 0.6–3, and 0.1–0.6 million. The 20 worldwide megacities (each >10 million people) have a population-weighted mean iF of 83 ppm. Mean intraurban iF values are greatest in Asia and lowest in land-rich high-income regions. Country-average iF values vary by a factor of 3 among the 10 nations with the largest urban populations. PMID:22332712

Ozone and its projection in regard to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melkonyan, Ani; Wagner, Patrick

2013-03-01

In this paper, the dependence of ozone-forming potential on temperature was analysed based on data from two stations (with an industrial and rural background, respectively) in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, for the period of 1983-2007. After examining the interrelations between ozone, NOx and temperature, a projection of the days with ozone exceedance (over a limit value of a daily maximum 8-h average ≥ 120 μg m-3 for 25 days per year averaged for 3 years) in terms of global climate change was made using probability theory and an autoregression integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The results show that with a temperature increase of 3 K, the frequency of days when ozone exceeds its limit value will increase by 135% at the industrial station and by 87% at the rural background station.

Retrieval of Mid-tropospheric CO2 Directly from AIRS Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olsen, Edward T.; Chahine, Moustafa T.; Chen, Luke L.; Pagano, Thomas S.

2008-01-01

We apply the method of Vanishing Partial Derivatives (VPD) to AIRS spectra to retrieve daily the global distribution of CO2 at a nadir geospatial resolution of 90 km x 90 km without requiring a first-guess input beyond the global average. Our retrievals utilize the 15 (micro)m band radiances, a complex spectral region. This method may be of value in other applications, in which spectral signatures of multiple species are not well isolated spectrally from one another.

Global-scale modeling of groundwater recharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Döll, P.; Fiedler, K.

2008-05-01

Long-term average groundwater recharge, which is equivalent to renewable groundwater resources, is the major limiting factor for the sustainable use of groundwater. Compared to surface water resources, groundwater resources are more protected from pollution, and their use is less restricted by seasonal and inter-annual flow variations. To support water management in a globalized world, it is necessary to estimate groundwater recharge at the global scale. Here, we present a best estimate of global-scale long-term average diffuse groundwater recharge (i.e. renewable groundwater resources) that has been calculated by the most recent version of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model WGHM (spatial resolution of 0.5° by 0.5°, daily time steps). The estimate was obtained using two state-of-the-art global data sets of gridded observed precipitation that we corrected for measurement errors, which also allowed to quantify the uncertainty due to these equally uncertain data sets. The standard WGHM groundwater recharge algorithm was modified for semi-arid and arid regions, based on independent estimates of diffuse groundwater recharge, which lead to an unbiased estimation of groundwater recharge in these regions. WGHM was tuned against observed long-term average river discharge at 1235 gauging stations by adjusting, individually for each basin, the partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration and total runoff. We estimate that global groundwater recharge was 12 666 km3/yr for the climate normal 1961-1990, i.e. 32% of total renewable water resources. In semi-arid and arid regions, mountainous regions, permafrost regions and in the Asian Monsoon region, groundwater recharge accounts for a lower fraction of total runoff, which makes these regions particularly vulnerable to seasonal and inter-annual precipitation variability and water pollution. Average per-capita renewable groundwater resources of countries vary between 8 m3/(capita yr) for Egypt to more than 1 million m3/(capita yr) for the Falkland Islands, the global average in the year 2000 being 2091 m3/(capita yr). Regarding the uncertainty of estimated groundwater resources due to the two precipitation data sets, deviation from the mean is 1.1% for the global value, and less than 1% for 50 out of the 165 countries considered, between 1 and 5% for 62, between 5 and 20% for 43 and between 20 and 80% for 10 countries. Deviations at the grid scale can be much larger, ranging between 0 and 186 mm/yr.

Improved modelling of ship SO 2 emissions—a fuel-based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endresen, Øyvind; Bakke, Joachim; Sørgård, Eirik; Flatlandsmo Berglen, Tore; Holmvang, Per

Significant variations are apparent between the various reported regional and global ship SO 2 emission inventories. Important parameters for SO 2 emission modelling are sulphur contents and marine fuel consumption. Since 1993, the global average sulphur content for heavy fuel has shown an overall downward trend, while the bunker sale has increased. We present an improved bottom up approach to estimate marine sulphur emissions from ship transportation, including the geographical distribution. More than 53,000 individual bunker samples are used to establish regionally and globally (volume) weighted average sulphur contents for heavy and distillate marine fuels. We find that the year 2002 sulphur content in heavy fuels varies regionally from 1.90% (South America) to 3.07% (Asia), with a globally weighted average of 2.68% sulphur. The calculated globally weighted average content for heavy fuels is found to be 5% higher than the average (arithmetic mean) sulphur content commonly used. The reason for this is likely that larger bunker stems are mainly of high-viscosity heavy fuel, which tends to have higher sulphur values compared to lower viscosity fuels. The uncertainties in SO 2 inventories are significantly reduced using our updated SO 2 emission factors (volume-weighted sulphur content). Regional marine bunker sales figures are combined with volume-weighted sulphur contents for each region to give a global SO 2 emission estimate in the range of 5.9-7.2 Tg (SO 2) for international marine transportation. Also taking into account the domestic sales, the total emissions from all ocean-going transportation is estimated to be 7.0-8.5 Tg (SO 2). Our estimate is significantly lower than recent global estimate reported by Corbett and Koehler [2003. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 108] (6.49 Tg S or about 13.0 Tg SO 2). Endresen et al. [2004. Journal of Geophysical Research 109, D23302] claim that uncertainties in input data for the activity-based method will give too high emission estimates. We also indicate that this higher estimate will almost give doubling of regional emissions, compared to detailed movement-based estimates. The paper presents an alternative approach to estimate present overall SO 2 ship emissions with improved accuracy.

Aquarius Instrument Science Calibration During the Risk Reduction Phase

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruf, Christopher S.

2004-01-01

This final report presents the results of work performed under NASA Grant NAG512726 during the period 15 January 2003 through 30 June 2004. An analysis was performed of a possible vicarious calibration method for use by Aquarius to monitor and stabilize the absolute and relative calibration of its microwave radiometer. Stationary statistical properties of the brightness temperature (T(sub B)) measured by a low Earth orbiting radiometer operating at 1.4135 GHz are considered as a means of validating its absolute calibration. The global minimum, maximum, and average T(sub B) are considered, together with a vicarious cold reference method that detects the presence of a sharp lower bound on naturally occurring values for T(sub B). Of particular interest is the reliability with which these statistics can be extracted from a realistic distribution of T(sub B) measurements that would be observed by a typical sensor. Simulations of measurements are performed that include the effects of instrument noise and variable environmental factors such as the global water vapor and ocean surface temperature, salinity and wind distributions. Global minima can vary widely due to instrument noise and are not a reliable calibration reference. Global maxima are strongly influenced by several environmental factors as well as instrument noise and are even less stationary. Global averages are largely insensitive to instrument noise and, in most cases, to environmental conditions as well. The global average T(sub B) varies at only the 0.1 K RMS level except in cases of anomalously high winds, when it can increase considerably more. The vicarious cold reference is similarly insensitive to instrument effects and most environmental factors. It is not significantly affected by high wind conditions. The stability of the vicarious reference is, however, found to be somewhat sensitive (at the several tenths of Kelvins level) to variations in the background cold space brightness, T(sub c). The global average is much less sensitive to this parameter and so using two approaches together can be mutually beneficial.

Cultural Value Orientations and Alcohol Consumption in 74 Countries: A Societal-Level Analysis

PubMed Central

Inman, Richard A.; da Silva, Sara M. G.; Bayoumi, Rasha R.; Hanel, Paul H. P.

2017-01-01

A significant proportion of all deaths globally can be attributed to alcohol consumption. Although a range of correlates of alcohol consumption have already been identified at the individual level, less is understood about correlates at the macro level, such as cultural values. As a development in this understanding may prove useful for global health organizations aiming to tackle the problems associated with excessive drinking, our aim was to investigate the association between encultured alcohol consumption and Cultural Value Orientations. We obtained data describing average alcohol consumption and Cultural Value Orientations, for 74 countries, from an online data repository. To assess whether Cultural Value Orientations are associated with alcohol consumption we calculated partial correlations and performed a ridge regression analysis. Our analyses revealed that Cultural Value Orientations were significantly associated with alcohol consumption, even after controlling for average income and education level. A profile emerged in which values of autonomy and harmony were shown to be positively associated with alcohol consumption, and hierarchy and embeddedness negatively associated with alcohol consumption. The effect was modified by gender. Changes in cultural Harmony, Mastery, Autonomy and Egalitarianism were associated with increases in alcohol consumption in males, but not females, while changes in cultural Embeddedness and Hierarchy were associated with decreases in consumption in females, but no change in males. Finally, we demonstrate that latitude, and by extension its covariates such as climatic demands, partially accounted for the effect of harmony and affective autonomy on alcohol consumption. This research highlights that cultural values, and their interaction with gender, should be an important consideration for international public health organizations aiming to tackle the problems associated with alcohol consumption, but that future research is required to fully understand the link between cultural values and alcohol. PMID:29209246

Estimating the power of Mars’ greenhouse effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haberle, Robert M.

2013-03-01

Extensive modeling of Mars in conjunction with in situ observations suggests that the annual average global mean surface temperature is Tsbar∼202 K. Yet its effective temperature, i.e., the temperature at which a blackbody radiates away the energy it absorbs, is Te ∼ 208 K. How can a planet with a CO2 atmosphere have a mean annual surface temperature that is actually less than its effective temperature? We use the Ames General Circulation Model explain why this is the case and point out that the correct comparison of the effective temperature is with the effective surface temperature Tse, which is the fourth root of the annual and globally averaged value of Ts4. This may seem obvious, but the distinction is often not recognized in the literature.

Global-scale assessment and combination of SMAP with ASCAT (active) and AMSR2 (passive) soil moisture products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Hyunglok; Parinussa, Robert; Konings, Alexandra G.; Wagner, Wolfgang; Cosh, Michael H.; Lakshmi, Venkat; Zohaib, Muhammad; Choi, Minha

2018-01-01

Global-scale surface soil moisture (SSM) products retrieved from active and passive microwave remote sensing provide an effective method for monitoring near-real-time SSM content with nearly daily temporal resolution. In the present study, we first inter-compared global-scale error patterns and combined the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) SSM products using a triple collocation (TC) analysis and the maximized Pearson correlation coefficient (R) method from April 2015 to December 2016. The Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) and global in situ observations were utilized to investigate and to compare the quality of satellite-based SSM products. The average R-values of SMAP, ASCAT, and AMSR2 were 0.74, 0.64, and 0.65 when they compared with in situ networks, respectively. The ubRMSD values were (0.0411, 0.0625, and 0.0708) m3 m- 3; and the bias values were (- 0.0460, 0.0010, and 0.0418) m3 m- 3 for SMAP, ASCAT, and AMSR2, respectively. The highest average R-values from SMAP against the in situ results are very encouraging; only SMAP showed higher R-values than GLDAS in several in situ networks with low ubRMSD (0.0438 m3 m- 3). Overall, SMAP showed a dry bias (- 0.0460 m3 m- 3) and AMSR2 had a wet bias (0.0418 m3 m- 3); while ASCAT showed the least bias (0.0010 m3 m- 3) among all the products. Each product was evaluated using TC metrics with respect to the different ranges of vegetation optical depth (VOD). Under vegetation scarce conditions (VOD < 0.10), such as desert and semi-desert regions, all products have difficulty obtaining SSM information. In regions with moderately vegetated areas (0.10 < VOD < 0.40), SMAP showed the highest Signal-to-Noise Ratio. Over highly vegetated regions (VOD > 0.40) ASCAT showed comparatively better performance than did the other products. Using the maximized R method, SMAP, ASCAT, and AMSR2 products were combined one by one using the GLDAS dataset for reference SSM values. When the satellite products were combined, R-values of the combined products were improved or degraded depending on the VOD ranges produced, when compared with the results from the original products alone. The results of this study provide an overview of SMAP, ASCAT, and AMSR2 reliability and the performance of their combined products on a global scale. This study is the first to show the advantages of the recently available SMAP dataset for effective merging of different satellite products and of their application to various hydro-meteorological problems.

[Reference values of energy for the Venezuelan population].

PubMed

Landaeta-Jiménez, Maritza; Aliaga, Carla; Sifontes, Yaritza; Vásquez, Maura; Ramírez, Guillermo; Falque Madrid, Luís; Herrera, Marianella; María Reyes, Ana; Emilia, Elzakem; Herrera, Ctor; Bernal, Jennifer

2013-12-01

The project of updating the Venezuelan energy reference values respond to the recommendations made by an FAO experts committee, several decades ago for the countries assuming this work. Because of the dramatic changes experienced globally regarding energy intake/expenditure and particularly variations on the Venezuelan nutritional scenario with the presence of "the double burden of malnutrition" it a review of Energy Reference Values (VRE) from a more integral approach is pertinent. This report follows the methodology proposed by FAO/WHO/UNU 2004 experts committee and energy reference values were established by group of age and gender, also average energy values for Venezuelan population were obtained. For calculation of these requirements, the energy expenditure was included by taking into account Basal Metabolic Rate and physical activity level for some specific groups. The score average values updated in 2012 of 2.200 kcal/dia reported to be lower than those of 2000 at all ages for masculine gender except for the 16-17 age group and for feminine gender just until ages 10-12 years and from there are slightly above the values obtained in 2000.

A Comparative Evaluation of Anomaly Detection Algorithms for Maritime Video Surveillance

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

of k-means clustering and the k- NN Localized p-value Estimator ( KNN -LPE). K-means is a popular distance-based clustering algorithm while KNN -LPE...implemented the sparse cluster identification rule we described in Section 3.1. 2. k-NN Localized p-value Estimator ( KNN -LPE): We implemented this using...Average Density ( KNN -NAD): This was implemented as described in Section 3.4. Algorithm Parameter Settings The global and local density-based anomaly

Analytical Assessment of the Relationship between 100MWp Large-scale Grid-connected Photovoltaic Plant Performance and Meteorological Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, Jie; Zhu, Qiaoming; Cao, Shijie; You, Yang

2017-05-01

This paper helps in study of the relationship between the photovoltaic power generation of large scale “fishing and PV complementary” grid-tied photovoltaic system and meteorological parameters, with multi-time scale power data from the photovoltaic power station and meteorological data over the same period of a whole year. The result indicates that, the PV power generation has the most significant correlation with global solar irradiation, followed by diurnal temperature range, sunshine hours, daily maximum temperature and daily average temperature. In different months, the maximum monthly average power generation appears in August, which related to the more global solar irradiation and longer sunshine hours in this month. However, the maximum daily average power generation appears in October, this is due to the drop in temperature brings about the improvement of the efficiency of PV panels. Through the contrast of monthly average performance ratio (PR) and monthly average temperature, it is shown that, the larger values of monthly average PR appears in April and October, while it is smaller in summer with higher temperature. The results concluded that temperature has a great influence on the performance ratio of large scale grid-tied PV power system, and it is important to adopt effective measures to decrease the temperature of PV plant properly.

Self-Organisation and Intermittent Coherent Oscillations in the EXTRAP T2 Reversed Field Pinch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cecconello, M.; Malmberg, J.-A.; Sallander, E.; Drake, J. R.

Many reversed-field pinch (RFP) experiments exhibit a coherent oscillatory behaviour that is characteristic of discrete dynamo events and is associated with intermittent current profile self-organisation phenomena. However, in the vast majority of the discharges in the resistive shell RFP experiment EXTRAP T2, the dynamo activity does not show global, coherent oscillatory behaviour. The internally resonant tearing modes are phase-aligned and wall-locked resulting in a large localised magnetic perturbation. Equilibrium and plasma parameters have a level of high frequency fluctuations but the average values are quasi-steady. For some discharges, however, the equilibrium parameters exhibit the oscillatory behaviour characteristic of the discrete dynamo events. For these discharges, the trend observed in the tearing mode spectra, associated with the onset of the discrete relaxation event behaviour, is a relative higher amplitude of m = 0 mode activity and relative lower amplitude of the m = 1 mode activity compared with their average values. Global plasma parameters and model profile calculations for sample discharges representing the two types of relaxation dynamics are presented.

How much might additional half a degree from a global warming of 1.5°C affects the extreme precipitation change in China?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, W.; Jiang, Z.

2017-12-01

In order to strengthen the global respond to the dangerous of global warming, Paris Agreement sets out two long-term warming goals: limiting global warming to well below 2˚C and purse effort to below 1.5˚C above pre-industrial levels. However, future climate change risks in those two warming targets show significant regional differences. This article aims to study the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation change over China under those two global warming targets by using CMIP5 models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario. Focus is put on the effects of the additional half degree in changing the extreme precipitation. Results show that the changes of extreme precipitation are independent of the RCP scenarios when global warming reaches the same threshold. Intensity of extreme precipitation averaged over China increase by around 6% and 11% when global warming reaches 1.5˚C and 2˚C, respectively. The additional half a degree increase makes the intensity of extreme precipitation averaged over China to increase by 4.5%, which translates to an increase close to the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. Return period decreases by 5 years for the extra half degree warming when the 20-year return values are considered at the reference level.

Mars-Gram Validation with Mars Global Surveyor Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; Johnson, D.; Parker, Nelson C. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2001) is an engineering-level Mars atmosphere model widely used for many b4ars mission applications. From 0-80 km, it is based on NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM), while above 80 km it is based on University of Arizona Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model. Mars-GRAM 2001 and MGCM use surface topography from Mars Global Surveyor Mars Orbiting Laser Altimeter (MOLA). Validation studies are described comparing Mars-GRAM with Mars Global Surveyor Radio Science (RS) and Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) data. RS data from 2480 profiles were used, covering latitudes 75deg S to 72deg N, surface to approx. 40 km, for seasons ranging from areocentric longitude of Sun (Ls) = 70-160deg and 265-310deg. RS data spanned a range of local times, mostly 0-9 hours and 18-24 hours. For interests in aerocapture and precision landing, comparisons concentrated on atmospheric density. At a fixed height of 20 km, measured RS density varied by about a factor of 2.5 over the range of latitudes and Ls values observed. Evaluated at matching positions and times, average RS/Mars-GRAM density ratios were generally lf0.05, except at heights above approx. 25 km and latitudes above approx.50deg N. Average standard deviation of RS/Mars-GRAM density ratio was 6%. TES data were used covering surface to approx. 40 km, over more than a full Mars year (February, 1999 - June, 2001, just before start of Mars global dust storm). Depending on season, TES data covered latitudes 85deg S to 85deg N. Most TES data were concentrated near local times 2 hours and 14 hours. Observed average TES/Mars-GRAM density ratios were generally 1+/-0.05, except at high altitudes (15-30 km, depending on season) and high latitudes (> 45deg N), or at most altitudes in the southern hemisphere at Ls approx. 90 and 180deg). Compared to TES averages for a given latitude and season, TES data had average density standard deviation about the mean of approx. 6.5-10.5% (varying with height) for all data, or approx. 5- 12%, depending on time of day and dust optical depth. Average standard deviation of TES/Mars-GRAM density ratio was 8.9% for local time 2 hours and 7.1% for 1o:al time 14 hours. Thus standard deviation of observed TES/Mars-GRAM density ratio, evaluated at matching positions and times, is about the same as the standard deviation of TES data about the TES mean value at a given position and season.

Aged Riverine Particulate Organic Carbon in Four UK Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, Jessica; Tipping, Edward; Bryant, Charlotte; Helliwell, Rachel; Toberman, Hannah; Quinton, John

2016-04-01

The riverine transport of particulate organic matter (POM) is a significant flux in the carbon cycle, and affects macronutrients and contaminants. We used radiocarbon to characterise POM at 9 riverine sites of four UK catchments (Avon, Conwy, Dee, Ribble) over a one-year period. High-discharge samples were collected on three or four occasions at each site. Suspended particulate matter (SPM) was obtained by centrifugation, and the samples were analysed for carbon isotopes. Concentrations of SPM and SPM organic carbon (OC) contents were also determined, and were found to have a significant negative correlation. For the 7 rivers draining predominantly rural catchments, PO14C values, expressed as percent modern carbon absolute (pMC), varied little among samplings at each site, and there was no significant difference in the average values among the sites. The overall average PO14C value for the 7 sites of 91.2 pMC corresponded to an average age of 680 14C years, but this value arises from the mixing of differently-aged components, and therefore significant amounts of organic matter older than the average value are present in the samples. Although topsoil erosion is probably the major source of the riverine POM, the average PO14C value is appreciably lower than topsoil values (which are typically 100 pMC). This is most likely explained by inputs of older subsoil OC from bank erosion, or the preferential loss of high-14C topsoil organic matter by mineralisation during riverine transport. The significantly lower average PO14C of samples from the River Calder (76.6 pMC), can be ascribed to components containing little or no radiocarbon, derived either from industrial sources or historical coal mining, and this effect is also seen in the River Ribble, downstream of its confluence with the Calder. At the global scale, the results significantly expand available information for PO14C in rivers draining catchments with low erosion rates.

Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2014

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2016-01-01

This Technical Publication (TP) represents an extension of previous work concerning the tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin during the weather satellite era, 1960-2014, in particular, that of an article published in The Journal of the Alabama Academy of Science. With the launch of the TIROS-1 polar-orbiting satellite in April 1960, a new era of global weather observation and monitoring began. Prior to this, the conditions of the North Atlantic basin were determined only from ship reports, island reports, and long-range aircraft reconnaissance. Consequently, storms that formed far from land, away from shipping lanes, and beyond the reach of aircraft possibly could be missed altogether, thereby leading to an underestimate of the true number of tropical cyclones forming in the basin. Additionally, new analysis techniques have come into use which sometimes has led to the inclusion of one or more storms at the end of a nominal hurricane season that otherwise would not have been included. In this TP, examined are the yearly (or seasonal) and 10-year moving average (10-year moving average) values of the (1) first storm day (FSD), last storm day (LSD), and length of season (LOS); (2) frequencies of tropical cyclones (by class); (3) average peak 1-minute sustained wind speed () and average lowest pressure (); (4) average genesis location in terms of north latitudinal () and west longitudinal () positions; (5) sum and average power dissipation index (); (6) sum and average accumulated cyclone energy (); (7) sum and average number of storm days (); (8) sum of the number of hurricane days (NHD) and number of major hurricane days (NMHD); (9) net tropical cyclone activity index (NTCA); (10) largest individual storm (LIS) PWS, LP, PDI, ACE, NSD, NHD, NMHD; and (11) number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes (N4/5). Also examined are the December-May (D-M) and June-November (J-N) averages and 10-year moving average values of several climatic factors, including the (1) oceanic Nino index (); (2) Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation () index; (3) Atlantic meridional mode () index; (4) global land-ocean temperature index (); and (5) quasi-biennial oscillation () index. Lastly, the associational aspects (using both linear and nonparametric statistical tests) between selected tropical cyclone parameters and the climatic factors are examined based on their 10-year moving average trend values.

Accuracy Assessment of Global Barotropic Ocean Tide Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-08-07

with our models (with values 182.7◦, 182.0◦, 181.8◦, 183.7◦, 181.8◦, 182.3◦, and 182.2◦). The cause of this problem has not been resolved, but...some- times on both sides of the island—see Figure 4. While these problem stations skew the global RMS statistics, they are nonetheless instructive...DTU10), the mean RMS difference amounts to 16% of the M2 average amplitude and more than 30% for S2, K1, and O1. This illustrates the problem that

Causes of Glacier Melt Extremes in the Alps Since 1949

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thibert, E.; Dkengne Sielenou, P.; Vionnet, V.; Eckert, N.; Vincent, C.

2018-01-01

Recent record-breaking glacier melt values are attributable to peculiar extreme events and long-term warming trends that shift averages upward. Analyzing one of the world's longest mass balance series with extreme value statistics, we show that detrending melt anomalies makes it possible to disentangle these effects, leading to a fairer evaluation of the return period of melt extreme values such as 2003, and to characterize them by a more realistic bounded behavior. Using surface energy balance simulations, we show that three independent drivers control melt: global radiation, latent heat, and the amount of snow at the beginning of the melting season. Extremes are governed by large deviations in global radiation combined with sensible heat. Long-term trends are driven by the lengthening of melt duration due to earlier and longer-lasting melting of ice along with melt intensification caused by trends in long-wave irradiance and latent heat due to higher air moisture.

Capital death in the world market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avakian, Adam; Podobnik, Boris; Piskor, Manuela; Stanley, H. Eugene

2014-03-01

We study the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita together with the market capitalization (MCAP) per capita as two indicators of the effect of globalization. We find that g, the GDP per capita, as a function of m, the MCAP per capita, follows a power law with average exponent close to 1/3. In addition, the Zipf ranking approach confirms that the m for countries with initially lower values of m tends to grow more rapidly than for countries with initially larger values of m. If the trends over the past 20 years continue to hold in the future, then the Zipf ranking approach leads to the prediction that in about 50 years, all countries participating in globalization will have comparable values of their MCAP per capita. We call this economic state "capital death," in analogy to the physics state of "heat death" predicted by thermodynamic arguments.

Assessment and self-assessment of the pharmacists' competencies using the global competency framework (GbCF) in Serbia.

PubMed

Stojkov, Svetlana; Tadić, Ivana; Crnjanski, Tatjana; Krajnović, Dušanka

2016-09-01

Pharmacists' competence represents a dynamic framework of knowledge, skills and abilities to carry out tasks, and it reflects on improving the quality of life and on patients’ health. One of the documents for the Evaluation and Competency Development of Pharmacists is the Global Competency Framework (GbCF). The aim of this study was to implement the GBCF document into Serbian pharmacies, to perform assessment and self assessment of the competencies. The assessment and self-assessment of pharmacists’ competencies were performed during the period 2012−13 year in eight community pharmacy chains, in seven cities in Serbia. For assessment and self-assessment of pharmacists competencies the GbCF model was applied, which was adjusted to pharmaceutical practice and legislation in Serbia. External assessment was conducted by teams of pharmacists using the structured observation of the work of pharmacists during regular working hours. Evaluated pharmacists filled out the questionnaire about demographic indicators about the pharmacist and the pharmacy where they work. A total of 123 pharmacists were evaluated. Pharmacists’ Professional Competency Cluster (KK1) had the lowest score (average value 2.98), while the cluster Management and Organizational Competency (KK2) had the highest score (average value 3.15). The competence Recognition of the Diagnosis and Patient Counseling (K8), which belonged to the cluster KK1, had the lowest score (average value for assessment and self-assessment were 2.09, and 2.34, respectively) among the all evaluated competencies. GbCF might be considered as an instrument for the competencies' evaluation/selfevaluation and their improvement, accordingly.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parkin, E. R.; Bicknell, G. V., E-mail: parkin@mso.anu.edu.au

Global three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of turbulent accretion disks are presented which start from fully equilibrium initial conditions in which the magnetic forces are accounted for and the induction equation is satisfied. The local linear theory of the magnetorotational instability (MRI) is used as a predictor of the growth of magnetic field perturbations in the global simulations. The linear growth estimates and global simulations diverge when nonlinear motions-perhaps triggered by the onset of turbulence-upset the velocity perturbations used to excite the MRI. The saturated state is found to be independent of the initially excited MRI mode, showing that once themore » disk has expelled the initially net flux field and settled into quasi-periodic oscillations in the toroidal magnetic flux, the dynamo cycle regulates the global saturation stress level. Furthermore, time-averaged measures of converged turbulence, such as the ratio of magnetic energies, are found to be in agreement with previous works. In particular, the globally averaged stress normalized to the gas pressure <{alpha}{sub P}>bar = 0.034, with notably higher values achieved for simulations with higher azimuthal resolution. Supplementary tests are performed using different numerical algorithms and resolutions. Convergence with resolution during the initial linear MRI growth phase is found for 23-35 cells per scale height (in the vertical direction).« less

Mercury contamination, a potential threat to the globally endangered aquatic warbler Acrocephalus paludicola.

PubMed

Pacyna, Aneta Dorota; Martínez, Carlos Zumalacárregui; Miguélez, David; Jiguet, Frédéric; Polkowska, Żaneta; Wojczulanis-Jakubas, Katarzyna

2017-12-01

Mercury (Hg) contamination is considered a global concern for humans and wildlife, and although the number of studies dealing with that issue continues to increase, some taxonomic groups such as small passerine birds are largely understudied. In this paper, concentration of mercury in the aquatic warbler (Acrocephalus paludicola) feathers, a globally threatened passerine species, was examined. The concentration differences between two ages and sexes were investigated. The comparison of feathers taken on autumn migrants of two age categories act as a comparison of the species' exposure within the two different areas (European breeding or African wintering grounds). The average Hg concentration for all sampled individuals [2.32 μg/g dw (range 0.38-12.76)] is relatively high, compared with values found in other passerine species. An age difference was found, with first-year individuals displaying higher mercury concentrations than adults. This indicates that birds are exposed to mercury pollution during the breeding season, i.e., in the continental floodplains of eastern Europe. The average Hg concentration in feathers grown on the breeding grounds was 3.88 ± 2.59 μg/g dw, closer to the critical value of 5 μg/g dw, which is considered to impair the health of individuals. The findings suggest that mercury pollution may constitute a threat so far neglected for the endangered aquatic warbler.

Reducing Noise in the MSU Daily Lower-Tropospheric Global Temperature Dataset

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christy, John R.; Spencer, Roy W.; McNider, Richard T.

1996-01-01

The daily global-mean values of the lower-tropospheric temperature determined from microwave emissions measured by satellites are examined in terms of their signal, noise, and signal-to-noise ratio. Daily and 30-day average noise estimates are reduced by almost 50% and 35%. respectively, by analyzing and adjusting (if necessary) for errors due to 1) missing data, 2) residual harmonics of the annual cycle unique to particular satellites, 3) lack of filtering, and 4) spurious trends. After adjustments, the decadal trend of the lower-tropospheric global temperature from January 1979 through February 1994 becomes -0.058 C. or about 0.03 C per decade cooler than previously calculated.

Reducing Noise in the MSU Daily Lower-Tropospheric Global Temperature Dataset

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christy, John R.; Spencer, Roy W.; McNider, Richard T.

1995-01-01

The daily global-mean values of the lower-tropospheric temperature determined from microwave emissions measured by satellites are examined in terms of their signal, noise, and signal-to-noise ratio. Daily and 30-day average noise estimates are reduced by, almost 50% and 35%, respectively, by analyzing and adjusting (if necessary) for errors due to (1) missing data, (2) residual harmonics of the annual cycle unique to particular satellites, (3) lack of filtering, and (4) spurious trends. After adjustments, the decadal trend of the lower-tropospheric global temperature from January 1979 through February 1994 becomes -0.058 C, or about 0.03 C per decade cooler than previously calculated.

The Relationship Between Tropical Cyclone Frequency and 'Climate Change'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolton, M.; Mogil, M.

2013-12-01

Please note: there have been minor updates to this work since the main author, Matt Bolton, graduated high school, but the majority of the research was compiled by him while he was a high school junior in 2011. Abstract: In recent years, there has been a growing trend by many, in the meteorological community (media and scientist) to predict expected seasonal tropical cyclone frequency in the Atlantic and Pacific Basins. Typically, the numbers are related to seasonal averages. However, these predictions often show a large positive bias (i.e., there are more years in which the expected number of storms exceeds or far exceeds average). Further, observed numbers often come close to bearing out the forecasts (actually a good thing). From a public perspective (and based on extrapolations performed by media and some scientific groups), this peaking of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is observed globally. In an attempt to determine if such a global trend exists, we set out to collect data from weather agencies around the world and present it in a way that was as unbiased as possible. While there were inconsistencies across the various datasets, especially in regard to wind data, we were still able to construct a realistic global cyclone database. We have concluded that high activity levels in one basin are often balanced by areas of low activity in others. The Atlantic - Eastern Pacific couplet is one such example. This paper will serve as an update to our previous 2011 paper, which introduced our efforts. At that time, we found, on average, 70 named tropical cyclones worldwide. In both this and our original study, we did not address the issue of naming short-lived tropical systems, which was found to be inconsistent across worldwide ocean basins. Our results suggest, that from a global climate change perspective, a growing NUMBER of tropical cyclones is NOT being observed. In the current iteration of our study, we are examining, at least preliminarily, global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) values. As these values are computed more widely in the coming months, we also hope to include a breakdown of worldwide tropical systems by category and duration.

Analysis of diffuse radiation data for Beer Sheva: Measured (shadow ring) versus calculated (global-horizontal beam) values

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kudish, A.I.; Ianetz, A.

1993-12-01

The authors have utilized concurrently measured global, normal incidence beam, and diffuse radiation data, the latter measured by means of a shadow ring pyranometer to study the relative magnitude of the anisotropic contribution (circumsolar region and nonuniform sky conditions) to the diffuse radiation. In the case of Beer Sheva, the monthly average hourly anisotropic correction factor varies from 2.9 to 20.9%, whereas the [open quotes]standard[close quotes] geometric correction factor varies from 5.6 to 14.0%. The monthly average hourly overall correction factor (combined anisotropic and geometric factors) varies from 8.9 to 37.7%. The data have also been analyzed using a simplemore » model of sky radiance developed by Steven in 1984. His anisotropic correction factor is a function of the relative strength and angular width of the circumsolar radiation region. The results of this analysis are in agreement with those previously reported for Quidron on the Dead Sea, viz. the anisotropy and relative strength of the circumsolar radiation are significantly greater than at any of the sites analyzed by Steven. In addition, the data have been utilized to validate a model developed by LeBaron et al. in 1990 for correcting shadow ring diffuse radiation data. The monthly average deviation between the corrected and true diffuse radiation values varies from 4.55 to 7.92%.« less

A method for estimating direct normal solar irradiation from satellite data for a tropical environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Janjai, Serm

In order to investigate a potential use of concentrating solar power technologies and select an optimum site for these technologies, it is necessary to obtain information on the geographical distribution of direct normal solar irradiation over an area of interest. In this work, we have developed a method for estimating direct normal irradiation from satellite data for a tropical environment. The method starts with the estimation of global irradiation on a horizontal surface from MTSAT-1R satellite data and other ground-based ancillary data. Then a satellite-based diffuse fraction model was developed and used to estimate the diffuse component of the satellite-derivedmore » global irradiation. Based on this estimated global and diffuse irradiation and the solar radiation incident angle, the direct normal irradiation was finally calculated. To evaluate its performance, the method was used to estimate the monthly average hourly direct normal irradiation at seven pyrheliometer stations in Thailand. It was found that values of monthly average hourly direct normal irradiation from the measurements and those estimated from the proposed method are in reasonable agreement, with a root mean square difference of 16% and a mean bias of -1.6%, with respect to mean measured values. After the validation, this method was used to estimate the monthly average hourly direct normal irradiation over Thailand by using MTSAT-1R satellite data for the period from June 2005 to December 2008. Results from the calculation were displayed as hourly and yearly irradiation maps. These maps reveal that the direct normal irradiation in Thailand was strongly affected by the tropical monsoons and local topography of the country. (author)« less

Globally Averaged Atmospheric CFC-11 Concentrations: Monthly and Annual Data for the Period 1975-1992 (DB1010)

DOE Data Explorer

Khalil, M. A.K. [Oregon Graduate Institute of Science and Technology Portland, Oregon (USA); Rasmussen, R. A. [Oregon Graduate Institute of Science and Technology Portland, Oregon

1996-01-01

This data set presents globally averaged atmospheric concentrations of chlorofluorocarbon 11, known also as CFC-11 or F-11 (chemical name: trichlorofluoromethane; formula: CCl3F). The monthly global average data are derived from flask air samples collected at eight sites in six locations over the period August 1980-July 1992. The sites are Barrow (Alaska), Cape Meares (Oregon), Cape Kumukahi and Mauna Loa (Hawaii), Cape Matatula (American Samoa), Cape Grim (Tasmania), Palmer Station, and the South Pole (Antarctica). At each collection site, monthly averages were obtained from three flask samples collected every week. In addition to the monthly global averages available for 1980-992, this data set also contains annual global average data for 1975-1985. These annual global averages were derived from January measurements at the South Pole and in the Pacific Northwest of the United States (specifically, Washington state and the Oregon coast).

A cohort study evaluating the implications of biology, weight status and socioeconomic level on global self-esteem competence among female African-American adolescents.

PubMed

Powell-Young, Yolanda M; Zabaleta, Jovanny; Velasco-Gonzalez, Cruz; Sothern, Melinda S

2013-07-01

The link between obesity and self-esteem among minority youth has received minimal empirical evaluation. This study aims to describe the magnitude of risk that body mass index, household income, and transitional age have on global self-esteem levels among African-American adolescents. These analyses were conducted on cross-sectional data obtained from 264 urban-dwelling African-American females between 14 and 18 years of age. Survey data on global self-esteem levels, transitory age, and socioeconomic levels were collected using self-administered questionnaires. Measured height and weight values were used to calculate and categorize weight status according to body mass index. Logistic regression models examined the probability of reporting less than average levels of global self-esteem. Adolescent African-American females residing in low-income households were 10 times more likely to report lower global self-esteem scores than those individuals from more affluent households (95% CI: 1.94, 60.19, p < .001). Neither weight status (95% CI: 0.81, 2.55; p = .26) nor age (95% CI: 0.05, 1.87; p = .82) were significant risk indicators for lower than average levels of global self-esteem among participants in this study. Household income appears to be the greatest predictor of global self-esteem levels. Further research in this area is needed to fully elucidate precursors for psychological health vulnerability and facilitate intervention development.

A Cohort Study Evaluating the Implications of Biology, Weight Status and Socioeconomic Level on Global Self-Esteem Competence Among Female African-American Adolescents

PubMed Central

Powell-Young, Yolanda M.; Zabaleta, Jovanny; Velasco-Gonzalez, Cruz; Sothern, Melinda S.

2014-01-01

The link between obesity and self-esteem among minority youth has received minimal empirical evaluation. This study aims to describe the magnitude of risk that body mass index, household income, and transitional age have on global self-esteem levels among African-American adolescents. These analyses were conducted on cross-sectional data obtained from 264 urban-dwelling African-American females between 14 and 18 years of age. Survey data on global self-esteem levels, transitory age, and socioeconomic levels were collected using self-administered questionnaires. Measured height and weight values were used to calculate and categorize weight status according to body mass index. Logistic regression models examined the probability of reporting less than average levels of global self-esteem. Adolescent African-American females residing in low-income households were 10 times more likely to report lower global self-esteem scores than those individuals from more affluent households (95% CI: 1.94, 60.19, p < .001). Neither weight status (95% CI: 0.81, 2.55; p = .26) nor age (95% CI: 0.05, 1.87; p = .82) were significant risk indicators for lower than average levels of global self-esteem among participants in this study. Household income appears to be the greatest predictor of global self-esteem levels. Further research in this area is needed to fully elucidate precursors for psychological health vulnerability and facilitate intervention development. PMID:24218867

Largest global shark biomass found in the northern Galápagos Islands of Darwin and Wolf.

PubMed

Salinas-de-León, Pelayo; Acuña-Marrero, David; Rastoin, Etienne; Friedlander, Alan M; Donovan, Mary K; Sala, Enric

2016-01-01

Overfishing has dramatically depleted sharks and other large predatory fishes worldwide except for a few remote and/or well-protected areas. The islands of Darwin and Wolf in the far north of the Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR) are known for their large shark abundance, making them a global scuba diving and conservation hotspot. Here we report quantitative estimates of fish abundance at Darwin and Wolf over two consecutive years using stereo-video surveys, which reveal the largest reef fish biomass ever reported (17.5 t [Formula: see text] on average), consisting largely of sharks. Despite this, the abundance of reef fishes around the GMR, such as groupers, has been severely reduced because of unsustainable fishing practices. Although Darwin and Wolf are within the GMR, they were not fully protected from fishing until March 2016. Given the ecological value and the economic importance of Darwin and Wolf for the dive tourism industry, the current protection should ensure the long-term conservation of this hotspot of unique global value.

Updating the lake-atmosphere gas transfer velocity with impacts on the role of lake ecosystems in global carbon cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heiskanen, J. J.; Mammarella, I.; Haapanala, S.; Vesala, T.; Pumpanen, J. S.; Ojala, A.

2013-12-01

Currently, the global estimate for the amount of carbon bound in terrestrial ecosystems is 3.0 × 0.9 Pg C y-1 [Le Quéré et al., 2009]. Lakes are not explicitly included in currently used global carbon models [Randall et al., 2007] but it has been estimated that the global net CO2 flux from lakes to the atmosphere range from 0.07 to 0.15 Pg C y-1 [Cole et al., 2007], corresponding to 2.3-5.0% of the total average terrestrial net uptake of carbon. These lake flux estimates may be considerably biased [MacIntyre et al., 2010], since although the data pertain to about 5000 lakes throughout the world [Sobek and Tranvik, 2005], the estimates are not from direct flux measurements. Instead, they are based on surface-water CO2 partial pressure in combination with the gas transfer velocity, k. The uncertainty in the global net CO2 flux is mostly due to the uncertainties in k, which can vary considerably. Cole and Caraco (1998) measured a range of 1.4 to 4.8 cm h-1 for k, but again, these values are not based on direct flux measurements of CO2. The most widely used empirical models of k have wind speed as the only explaining variable. However, the gas transfer velocity is also known to depend on turbulence in the surface water [MacIntyre et al., 2010], which in turn depends mostly on penetrative water convection at low wind conditions [MacIntyre et al., 2010; MacIntyre et al., 2001] - the conditions often prevailing in lakes [Schladow et al., 2002]. We formulated an improved model for k with heat flux parameterization in addition to a wind-speed parameter, determined from an analysis of 4 months (August - November 2011) of continuous high-frequency data in a typical small boreal lake in southern Finland. The CO2 flux from the lake to the atmosphere, atmospheric partial pressure of CO2, and latent and sensible heat were measured with the EC technique installed on a platform. Ancillary measurements included surface-water CO2 concentration and temperature, and net longwave and shortwave radiation. The modeled average k for the whole period, 9.5 cm h-1, was near to the measured average, 8.7 cm h-1. We used 24-hour averages when comparing the results. The new model for k had an R2 value of 0.66 when its performance was compared to the measured gas transfer velocity. Even though this is a lot higher value than when comparing the measured k with a widely used model for k (Cole and Caraco 1998, R2=0.29), the new model could not predict all the sudden changes in k and still roughly one third of the variation was left unexplained. This might be due to the environmental factors omitted by the model, e.g. surfactants. As a result, we showed that the current estimate of the global net CO2 flux from lakes to the atmosphere triples from 0.07-0.15 Pg C y-1 to 0.23-0.48 Pg C y-1 when the average k by Cole and Caraco (1998) is replaced with the new k. This corresponds to 7.5-16.0% of the total CO2 bound in terrestrial ecosystems compared with the current estimates of 2.3-5.0%. The new parameterization of k, assuming that it represents lakes in general, thus shows that the role of lakes in the global carbon cycle has been heavily underestimated and emphasizes the explicit inclusion of lakes in global carbon models.

Quantification of the "global" authigenic carbonate δ13C value and implications for carbon cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loyd, S. J.

2017-12-01

Relationships among early Earth ocean chemistry, atmospheric chemistry and the evolution/radiation of life have been inferred from carbon isotope compositions (δ13C) of marine carbonates. Under steady-state conditions, the isotope compositions of marine carbonates reflect both the amount and δ13C of carbon entering and leaving the oceans. Recently the traditional "two-output" (marine carbonate and organic matter) mass-balance equation has been modified to include a third, authigenic carbonate output term. However, the formation mechanisms of authigenic carbonates remain poorly understood, particularly from a global prospective. The utility of the new mass-balance approach will be limited until authigenic carbonates are better characterized (e.g., through δ13C analyses). Authigenic carbonates form largely as a result of 1) the respiratory degradation of organic matter (e.g., sulfate reduction), 2) the oxidation of methane and 3) the production of methane. These major reaction pathways can produce authigenic carbonates with highly variable δ13C compositions (δ13Cac). Spatiotemporal variation in the extent and prevalence of different pathways therefore exert a first order control on "global" δ13Cac. Here, values are compiled from new and existing data sets and a modern, global δ13Cac is calculated. When calculated as an average of all data or an averaged mean of individual sites, this value is very similar to normal marine sedimentary organic matter. This finding suggests that marine sediments behave largely as closed systems in the context of organic matter degradation and carbonate authigenesis. In addition, the lack of significant difference between authigenic and organic δ13C implies that these two mass-balance output terms can be considered collectively in more recent time intervals. It may be appropriate to separate these two terms when characterizing more ancient settings when redox characteristics promoted more reducing organic matter degradation pathways.

Financial states of world financial and commodities markets around sovereign debt crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobi, Ashadun; Lee, Jae Woo

2017-11-01

We applied a threshold method to construct a complex network from cross-correlations coefficients of 46 daily time series comprised of 23 global indices and 23 commodity futures from 2010 - 2014. We identify financial states of both global indices and commodity futures based on the change of the network structure. The trend of the average correlation is decreasing except sharp peak during crises during the study period. The threshold networks are generated at a threshold value of θ = 0.1 and the change of degrees of each node over time is used to identify the financial state for each index. We observe that commodity futures, such as EU CO2 emission, live cattle, natural gas as well as the financial indices of Jakarta and Indonesia stock exchange (JKSE) and Kuala Lumpur stock exchange (KLSE) change states frequently. By the average change in links we identify the indices which are more reactive to crises.

Parameterization of daily solar global ultraviolet irradiation.

PubMed

Feister, U; Jäkel, E; Gericke, K

2002-09-01

Daily values of solar global ultraviolet (UV) B and UVA irradiation as well as erythemal irradiation have been parameterized to be estimated from pyranometer measurements of daily global and diffuse irradiation as well as from atmospheric column ozone. Data recorded at the Meteorological Observatory Potsdam (52 degrees N, 107 m asl) in Germany over the time period 1997-2000 have been used to derive sets of regression coefficients. The validation of the method against independent data sets of measured UV irradiation shows that the parameterization provides a gain of information for UVB, UVA and erythemal irradiation referring to their averages. A comparison between parameterized daily UV irradiation and independent values of UV irradiation measured at a mountain station in southern Germany (Meteorological Observatory Hohenpeissenberg at 48 degrees N, 977 m asl) indicates that the parameterization also holds even under completely different climatic conditions. On a long-term average (1953-2000), parameterized annual UV irradiation values are 15% and 21% higher for UVA and UVB, respectively, at Hohenpeissenberg than they are at Potsdam. Daily global and diffuse irradiation measured at 28 weather stations of the Deutscher Wetterdienst German Radiation Network and grid values of column ozone from the EPTOMS satellite experiment served as inputs to calculate the estimates of the spatial distribution of daily and annual values of UV irradiation across Germany. Using daily values of global and diffuse irradiation recorded at Potsdam since 1937 as well as atmospheric column ozone measured since 1964 at the same site, estimates of daily and annual UV irradiation have been derived for this site over the period from 1937 through 2000, which include the effects of changes in cloudiness, in aerosols and, at least for the period of ozone measurements from 1964 to 2000, in atmospheric ozone. It is shown that the extremely low ozone values observed mainly after the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991 have substantially enhanced UVB irradiation in the first half of the 1990s. According to the measurements and calculations, the nonlinear long-term changes observed between 1968 and 2000 amount to +4%, ..., +5% for annual global irradiation and UVA irradiation mainly because of changing cloudiness and + 14%, ..., +15% for UVB and erythemal irradiation because of both changing cloudiness and decreasing column ozone. At the mountain site, Hohenpeissenberg, measured global irradiation and parameterized UVA irradiation decreased during the same time period by -3%, ..., -4%, probably because of the enhanced occurrence and increasing optical thickness of clouds, whereas UVB and erythemal irradiation derived by the parameterization have increased by +3%, ..., +4% because of the combined effect of clouds and decreasing ozone. The parameterizations described here should be applicable to other regions with similar atmospheric and geographic conditions, whereas for regions with significantly different climatic conditions, such as high mountainous areas and arctic or tropical regions, the representativeness of the regression coefficients would have to be approved. It is emphasized here that parameterizations, as the one described in this article, cannot replace measurements of solar UV radiation, but they can use existing measurements of solar global and diffuse radiation as well as data on atmospheric ozone to provide estimates of UV irradiation in regions and over time periods for which UV measurements are not available.

A general circulation model study of atmospheric carbon monoxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pinto, J. P.; Rind, D.; Russell, G. L.; Lerner, J. A.; Hansen, J. E.; Yung, Y. L.; Hameed, S.

1983-01-01

The carbon monoxide cycle is studied by incorporating the known and hypothetical sources and sinks in a tracer model that uses the winds generated by a general circulation model. Photochemical production and loss terms, which depend on OH radical concentrations, are calculated in an interactive fashion. The computed global distribution and seasonal variations of CO are compared with observations to obtain constraints on the distribution and magnitude of the sources and sinks of CO, and on the tropospheric abundance of OH. The simplest model that accounts for available observations requires a low latitude plant source of about 1.3 x 10 to the 15th g/yr, in addition to sources from incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and oxidation of methane. The globally averaged OH concentration calculated in the model is 750,000/cu cm. Models that calculate globally averaged OH concentrations much lower than this nominal value are not consistent with the observed variability of CO. Such models are also inconsistent with measurements of CO isotopic abundances, which imply the existence of plant sources.

Spatial variability of nutrients (N, P) in a deep, temperate lake with a low trophic level supported by global navigation satellite systems, geographic information system and geostatistics.

PubMed

Łopata, Michał; Popielarczyk, Dariusz; Templin, Tomasz; Dunalska, Julita; Wiśniewski, Grzegorz; Bigaj, Izabela; Szymański, Daniel

2014-01-01

We investigated changes in the spatial distribution of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) in the deep, mesotrophic Lake Hańcza. The raw data collection, supported by global navigation satellite system (GNSS) positioning, was conducted on 79 sampling points. A geostatistical method (kriging) was applied in spatial interpolation. Despite the relatively small area of the lake (3.04 km(2)), compact shape (shore development index of 2.04) and low horizontal exchange of water (retention time 11.4 years), chemical gradients in the surface waters were found. The largest variation concerns the main biogenic element - phosphorus. The average value was 0.032 at the extreme values of 0.019 to 0.265 mg L(-1) (coefficient of variation 87%). Smaller differences are related to nitrogen compounds (0.452-1.424 mg L(-1) with an average value of 0.583 mg L(-1), the coefficient of variation 20%). The parts of the lake which are fed with tributaries are the richest in phosphorus. The water quality of the oligo-mesotrophic Lake Hańcza has been deteriorating in recent years. Our results indicate that inferences about trends in the evolution of examined lake trophic status should be based on an analysis of the data, taking into account the local variation in water chemistry.

Effects of vertical distribution of water vapor and temperature on total column water vapor retrieval error

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sun, Jielun

1993-01-01

Results are presented of a test of the physically based total column water vapor retrieval algorithm of Wentz (1992) for sensitivity to realistic vertical distributions of temperature and water vapor. The ECMWF monthly averaged temperature and humidity fields are used to simulate the spatial pattern of systematic retrieval error of total column water vapor due to this sensitivity. The estimated systematic error is within 0.1 g/sq cm over about 70 percent of the global ocean area; systematic errors greater than 0.3 g/sq cm are expected to exist only over a few well-defined regions, about 3 percent of the global oceans, assuming that the global mean value is unbiased.

Delta13C values of grasses as a novel indicator of pollution by fossil-fuel-derived greenhouse gas CO2 in urban areas.

PubMed

Lichtfouse, Eric; Lichtfouse, Michel; Jaffrézic, Anne

2003-01-01

A novel fossil fuel pollution indicator based on the 13C/12C isotopic composition of plants has been designed. This bioindicator is a promising tool for future mapping of the sequestration of fossil fuel CO2 into urban vegetation. Theoretically, plants growing in fossil-fuel-CO2-contaminated areas, such as major cities, industrial centers, and highway borders, should assimilate a mixture of global atmospheric CO2 of delta13C value of -8.02 per thousand and of fossil fuel CO2 of average delta13C value of -27.28 per thousand. This isotopic difference should, thus, be recorded in plant carbon. Indeed, this study reveals that grasses growing near a major highway in Paris, France, have strikingly depleted delta13C values, averaging at -35.08 per thousand, versus rural grasses that show an average delta13C value of -30.59 per thousand. A simple mixing model was used to calculate the contributions of fossil-fuel-derived CO2 to the plant tissue. Calculation based on contaminated and noncontaminated isotopic end members shows that urban grasses assimilate up to 29.1% of fossil-fuel-CO2-derived carbon in their tissues. The 13C isotopic composition of grasses thus represents a promising new tool for the study of the impact of fossil fuel CO2 in major cities.

Prognostic Value of Strain by Tissue Tracking Cardiac Magnetic Resonance After ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction.

PubMed

Gavara, Jose; Rodriguez-Palomares, Jose F; Valente, Filipa; Monmeneu, Jose V; Lopez-Lereu, Maria P; Bonanad, Clara; Ferreira-Gonzalez, Ignacio; Garcia Del Blanco, Bruno; Rodriguez-Garcia, Julian; Mutuberria, Maria; de Dios, Elena; Rios-Navarro, Cesar; Perez-Sole, Nerea; Racugno, Paolo; Paya, Ana; Minana, Gema; Canoves, Joaquim; Pellicer, Mauricio; Lopez-Fornas, Francisco J; Barrabes, Jose; Evangelista, Arturo; Nunez, Julio; Chorro, Francisco J; Garcia-Dorado, David; Bodi, Vicente

2017-12-08

The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of strain as assessed by tissue tracking (TT) cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) soon after ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The prognostic value of myocardial strain as assessed post-STEMI by TT-CMR is unknown. The authors studied the prognostic value of TT-CMR in 323 patients who underwent CMR 1 week post-STEMI. Global (average of peak segmental values [%]) and segmental (number of altered segments) longitudinal (LS), circumferential, and radial strain were assessed using TT-CMR. Global and segmental strain cutoff values were derived from 32 control patients. CMR-derived left ventricular ejection fraction, microvascular obstruction, and infarct size were determined. Results were validated in an external cohort of 190 STEMI patients. During a median follow-up of 1,085 days, 54 first major adverse cardiac events (MACE), which included 10 cardiac deaths, 25 readmissions for heart failure, and 19 readmissions for reinfarction were documented. MACE was associated with more severe abnormalities in all strain indexes (p < 0.001), although only global LS was an independent predictor (p < 0.001). The MACE rate was higher in patients with a global LS of ≥-11% (22% vs. 9%; p = 0.001). After adjustment for baseline and CMR variables, global LS (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.21; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.11 to 1.32; p < 0.001) was associated with MACE. In the external validation cohort, a global LS ≥-11% was seen in a higher proportion of patients with MACE (34% vs. 9%; p < 0.001). Global LS predicted MACE after adjustment for baseline and CMR variables (HR: 1.18; 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.33; p = 0.008). The addition of global LS to the multivariate models, including baseline and CMR variables, did not significantly improve the categorical net reclassification improvement index in either the study group (-0.015; p = 0.7) or in the external validation cohort (-0.019; p = 0.9). TT-CMR provided prognostic information soon after STEMI. However, it did not substantially improve risk reclassification beyond traditional CMR indexes. Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Knowledge and Adherence to Medications among Palestinian Geriatrics Living with Chronic Diseases in the West Bank and East Jerusalem

PubMed Central

Najjar, Anas; Amro, Yazan; Kitaneh, Islam; Abu-Sharar, Salam; Sawalha, Maryam; Jamous, Abrar; Qiq, Muhannad; Makharzeh, Enas; Subb Laban, Bayan; Amro, Wafa; Amro, Ahmad

2015-01-01

Background Adequate patient knowledge about medications is essential for appropriate drug taking behavior and patient adherence. This study aims to assess and quantify the level of knowledge and adherence to medications among Palestinian geriatrics living with chronic diseases and to investigate possible associated socio-demographic characteristics. Methods and Findings We conducted a cross-sectional study during June 2013 and January 2014 among Palestinian geriatrics ≥60 years old living with chronic disease in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. A stratified random sample was selected and a questionnaire-assisted interview was applied for data collection. T-test was applied for bivariate analyzing and one-way ANOVA test was applied for multivariate analyses. Results A total of 1192 Palestinian geriatrics were studied. The average age was 70.3 (SD=8.58) years and ranged from 60-110 years. The sample comprised 659 (55.3%) females and 533 (44.7%) males. The global knowledge and global adherence scores were (67.57%) and (89.29%), respectively. Adequate levels of knowledge were 71.4%, and of adherence 75%, which were recorded for 705 (59.1%) and 1088 (91.3%) participants, respectively. Significant higher levels of global knowledge and global adherence were recorded for males, and for participants who hold a Bachelor’s degree, those who live on their own, and did physical activity for more than 40 hours/week (p-value <0.05). Furthermore, workers, participants with a higher monthly income, and non-smokers have a higher knowledge level with (p-value <0.05). We found positive correlation between participants’ global adherence and global knowledge (r=0.487 and p-value <0.001). Negative correlation was found between participants’ global knowledge and adherence with age (r= -0.236, p-value <0.001 and r= -0.211 and p-value <0.001, respectively. Negative correlation between global knowledge and the number of drugs taken (r= -0.130, p-value <0.001) was predicted. Conclusion We concluded that patients with a higher level of knowledge are more adherent to their medications and that better understanding of socio-demographic factors has a clear influence on the level of knowledge and adherence to medications and thus contributes to the development of guidelines for treatment and may consequently lead to favourable clinical outcomes and savings of health care costs. PMID:26046771

Proxy-based reconstruction of erythemal UV doses over Estonia for 1955 2004

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eerme, K.; Veismann, U.; Lätt, S.

2006-08-01

A proxy-based reconstruction of the erythemally-weighted UV doses for 1955-2004 has been performed for the Tartu-Tõravere Meteorological Station (58°16' N, 26°28' E, 70 m a.s.l.) site. The pyrheliometer-measured daily sum of direct irradiance on partly cloudy and clear days, and the pyranometer-measured daily sum of global irradiance on overcast days were used as the cloudiness influence related proxies. The TOMS ozone data have been used for detecting the daily deviations from the climatic value (averaged annual cycle). In 1998-2004, the biases between the measured and reconstructed daily doses in 55.5% of the cases were within ±10% and in 83.5% of the cases within ±20%, on average. In the summer half-year these amounts were 62% and 88%, respectively. In most years the results for longer intervals did not differ significantly, if no correction was made for the daily deviations of total ozone from its climatic value. The annual and summer half-yearly erythemal doses (contributing, on average, 89% of the annual value) agreed within ±2%, except for the years after major volcanic eruptions and one extremely fine weather year (2002). Using the daily relative sunshine duration as a proxy without detailed correction for atmospheric turbidity results in biases of 2-4% in the summer half-yearly dose in the years after major volcanic eruptions and a few other years of high atmospheric turbidity. The year-to-year variations of the summer half-yearly erythemal dose in 1955-2004 were found to be within 92-111% relative to their average value. Exclusion of eight extreme years reduces this range for the remaining to 95-105.5%. Due to the quasi-periodic alternation of wet and dry periods, the interval of cloudy summers 1976-1993 regularly manifests summer half-yearly erythemal dose values lower than the 1955-2004 average. Since 1996/1997 midwinters have been darker than on average.

A confluence of contexts: asymmetric versus global failures of selective attention to stroop dimensions.

PubMed

Sabri, M; Melara, R D; Algom, D

2001-06-01

In 6 experiments probing selective attention through Stroop classification, 4 factors of context were manipulated: (a) psychophysical context, the distinctiveness of values along the color and word dimensions; (b) set size context, the number of stimulus values tested; (c) production context, the mode used to respond; and (d) covariate context, the correlation between the dimensions. The psychophysical and production contexts mainly caused an asymmetry in selective attention failure between colors and words, whereas the set size and covariate contexts contributed primarily to the average or global magnitudes of attentional disruption across dimensions. The results suggest that (a) Stroop dimensions are perceptually separable, (b) J.R. Stroop's (1935) classic findings arose from his particular combination of contexts, and (c) stimulus uncertainty and dimensional imbalance are the primary sources of task and congruity effects in the Stroop paradigm.

Educational quality of YouTube videos on knee arthrocentesis.

PubMed

Fischer, Jonas; Geurts, Jeroen; Valderrabano, Victor; Hügle, Thomas

2013-10-01

Knee arthrocentesis is a commonly performed diagnostic and therapeutic procedure in rheumatology and orthopedic surgery. Classic teaching of arthrocentesis skills relies on hands-on practice under supervision. Video-based online teaching is an increasingly utilized educational tool in higher and clinical education. YouTube is a popular video-sharing Web site that can be accessed as a teaching source. The objective of this study was to assess the educational value of YouTube videos on knee arthrocentesis posted by health professionals and institutions during the period from 2008 to 2012. The YouTube video database was systematically searched using 5 search terms related to knee arthrocentesis. Two independent clinical reviewers assessed videos for procedural technique and educational value using a 5-point global score, ranging from 1 = poor quality to 5 = excellent educational quality. As validated international guidelines are lacking, we used the guidelines of the Swiss Society of Rheumatology as criterion standard for the procedure. Of more than thousand findings, 13 videos met the inclusion criteria. Of those, 2 contained additional animated video material: one was purely animated, and one was a check list. The average length was 3.31 ± 2.28 minutes. The most popular video had 1388 hits per month. Our mean global score for educational value was 3.1 ± 1.0. Eight videos (62 %) were considered useful for teaching purposes. Use of a "no-touch" procedure, meaning that once disinfected the skin remains untouched before needle penetration, was present in all videos. Six videos (46%) demonstrated full sterile conditions. There was no clear preference of a medial (n = 8) versus lateral (n = 5) approach. A discreet number of YouTube videos on knee arthrocentesis appeared to be suitable for application in a Web-based format for medical students, fellows, and residents. The low-average mean global score for overall educational value suggests an improvement of future video-based instructional materials on YouTube would be necessary before regular use for teaching could be recommended.

Global economic burden of Chagas disease: a computational simulation model.

PubMed

Lee, Bruce Y; Bacon, Kristina M; Bottazzi, Maria Elena; Hotez, Peter J

2013-04-01

As Chagas disease continues to expand beyond tropical and subtropical zones, a growing need exists to better understand its resulting economic burden to help guide stakeholders such as policy makers, funders, and product developers. We developed a Markov simulation model to estimate the global and regional health and economic burden of Chagas disease from the societal perspective. Our Markov model structure had a 1 year cycle length and consisted of five states: acute disease, indeterminate disease, cardiomyopathy with or without congestive heart failure, megaviscera, and death. Major model parameter inputs, including the annual probabilities of transitioning from one state to another, and present case estimates for Chagas disease came from various sources, including WHO and other epidemiological and disease-surveillance-based reports. We calculated annual and lifetime health-care costs and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for individuals, countries, and regions. We used a discount rate of 3% to adjust all costs and DALYs to present-day values. On average, an infected individual incurs US$474 in health-care costs and 0·51 DALYs annually. Over his or her lifetime, an infected individual accrues an average net present value of $3456 and 3·57 DALYs. Globally, the annual burden is $627·46 million in health-care costs and 806,170 DALYs. The global net present value of currently infected individuals is $24·73 billion in health-care costs and 29,385,250 DALYs. Conversion of this burden into costs results in annual per-person costs of $4660 and lifetime per-person costs of $27,684. Global costs are $7·19 billion per year and $188·80 billion per lifetime. More than 10% of these costs emanate from the USA and Canada, where Chagas disease has not been traditionally endemic. A substantial proportion of the burden emerges from lost productivity from cardiovascular disease-induced early mortality. The economic burden of Chagas disease is similar to or exceeds those of other prominent diseases globally (eg, rotavirus $2·0 billion, cervical cancer $4·7 billion) even in the USA (Lyme disease $2·5 billion), where Chagas disease has not been traditionally endemic, suggesting an economic argument for more attention and efforts towards control of Chagas disease. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of General Medical Sciences Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global Pattern of Potential Evaporation Calculated from the Penman-Monteith Equation Using Satellite and Assimilated Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choudhury, Bhaskar J.

1997-01-01

Potential evaporation (E(0)) has been found to be useful in many practical applications and in research for setting a reference level for actual evaporation. All previous estimates of regional or global E(0) are based upon empirical formulae using climatologic meteorologic measurements at isolated stations (i.e., point data). However, the Penman-Monteith equation provides a physically based approach for computing E(0), and by comparing 20 different methods of estimating E(0), Jensen et al. (1990) showed that the Penman-Monteith equation provides the most accurate estimate of monthly E(0) from well-watered grass or alfalfa. In the present study, monthly total E(0) for 24 months (January 1987 to December 1988) was calculated from the Penman-Monteith equation, with prescribed albedo of 0.23 and surface resistance of 70 s/m, which are considered to be representative of actively growing well-watered grass covering the ground. These calculations have been done using spatially representative data derived from satellite observations and data assimilation results. Satellite observations were used to obtain solar radiation, fractional cloud cover, air temperature, and vapor pressure, while four-dimensional data assimilation results were used to calculate the aerodynamic resistance. Meteorologic data derived from satellite observations were compared with the surface measurements to provide a measure of accuracy. The accuracy of the calculated E(0) values was assessed by comparing with lysimeter observations for evaporation from well-watered grass at 35 widely distributed locations, while recognizing that the period of present calculations was not concurrent with the lysimeter measurements and the spatial scales of these measurements and calculations are vastly different. These comparisons suggest that the error in the calculated E(0) values may not be exceeded, on average, 20% for any month or location, but are more likely to be about 15%. These uncertainties are difficult to quantify for mountainous areas or locations close to extensive water bodies. The difference between the calculated and observed E(0) is about 5% when all month and locations were considered. Errors are expected to be less than 15% for averages of E(0) over large areas or several months. Further comparisons with lysimeter observations could provide a better appraisal of the calculated values. Global pattern of E(0) was presented, together with zonal average values.

An Estimate of the Likelihood for a Climatically Significant Volcanic Eruption Within the Present Decade (2000-2009)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Franklin, M. Rose (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Since 1750, the number of cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (i.e., those having a volcanic explosivity index, or VEI, equal to 4 or larger) per decade is found to span 2-11, with 96% located in the tropics and extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere, A two-point moving average of the time series has higher values since the 1860s than before, measuring 8.00 in the 1910s (the highest value) and measuring 6.50 in the 1980s, the highest since the 18 1 0s' peak. On the basis of the usual behavior of the first difference of the two-point moving averages, one infers that the two-point moving average for the 1990s will measure about 6.50 +/- 1.00, implying that about 7 +/- 4 cataclysmic volcanic eruptions should be expected during the present decade (2000-2009). Because cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (especially, those having VEI equal to 5 or larger) nearly always have been associated with episodes of short-term global cooling, the occurrence of even one could ameliorate the effects of global warming. Poisson probability distributions reveal that the probability of one or more VEI equal to 4 or larger events occurring within the next ten years is >99%, while it is about 49% for VEI equal to 5 or larger events and 18% for VEI equal to 6 or larger events. Hence, the likelihood that a, climatically significant volcanic eruption will occur within the next 10 years appears reasonably high.

Ensemble Downscaling of Winter Seasonal Forecasts: The MRED Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arritt, R. W.; Mred Team

2010-12-01

The Multi-Regional climate model Ensemble Downscaling (MRED) project is a multi-institutional project that is producing large ensembles of downscaled winter seasonal forecasts from coupled atmosphere-ocean seasonal prediction models. Eight regional climate models each are downscaling 15-member ensembles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) and the new NASA seasonal forecast system based on the GEOS5 atmospheric model coupled with the MOM4 ocean model. This produces 240-member ensembles, i.e., 8 regional models x 15 global ensemble members x 2 global models, for each winter season (December-April) of 1982-2003. Results to date show that combined global-regional downscaled forecasts have greatest skill for seasonal precipitation anomalies during strong El Niño events such as 1982-83 and 1997-98. Ensemble means of area-averaged seasonal precipitation for the regional models generally track the corresponding results for the global model, though there is considerable inter-model variability amongst the regional models. For seasons and regions where area mean precipitation is accurately simulated the regional models bring added value by extracting greater spatial detail from the global forecasts, mainly due to better resolution of terrain in the regional models. Our results also emphasize that an ensemble approach is essential to realizing the added value from the combined global-regional modeling system.

Measuring global monopole velocities, one by one

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lopez-Eiguren, Asier; Urrestilla, Jon; Achúcarro, Ana, E-mail: asier.lopez@ehu.eus, E-mail: jon.urrestilla@ehu.eus, E-mail: achucar@lorentz.leidenuniv.nl

We present an estimation of the average velocity of a network of global monopoles in a cosmological setting using large numerical simulations. In order to obtain the value of the velocity, we improve some already known methods, and present a new one. This new method estimates individual global monopole velocities in a network, by means of detecting each monopole position in the lattice and following the path described by each one of them. Using our new estimate we can settle an open question previously posed in the literature: velocity-dependent one-scale (VOS) models for global monopoles predict two branches of scalingmore » solutions, one with monopoles moving at subluminal speeds and one with monopoles moving at luminal speeds. Previous attempts to estimate monopole velocities had large uncertainties and were not able to settle that question. Our simulations find no evidence of a luminal branch. We also estimate the values of the parameters of the VOS model. With our new method we can also study the microphysics of the complicated dynamics of individual monopoles. Finally we use our large simulation volume to compare the results from the different estimator methods, as well as to asses the validity of the numerical approximations made.« less

Seasonal water chemistry variability in the Pangani River basin, Tanzania.

PubMed

Selemani, Juma R; Zhang, Jing; Muzuka, Alfred N N; Njau, Karoli N; Zhang, Guosen; Maggid, Arafa; Mzuza, Maureen K; Jin, Jie; Pradhan, Sonali

2017-11-01

The stable isotopes of δ 18 O, δ 2 H, and 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and dissolved major ions were used to assess spatial and seasonal water chemistry variability, chemical weathering, and hydrological cycle in the Pangani River Basin (PRB), Tanzania. Water in PRB was NaHCO 3 type dominated by carbonate weathering with moderate total dissolved solids. Major ions varied greatly, increasing from upstream to downstream. In some stations, content of fluoride and sodium was higher than the recommended drinking water standards. Natural and anthropogenic factors contributed to the lowering rate of chemical weathering; the rate was lower than most of tropical rivers. The rate of weathering was higher in Precambrian than volcanic rocks. 87 Sr/ 86 Sr was lower than global average whereas concentration of strontium was higher than global average with mean annual flux of 0.13 × 10 6  mol year -1 . Evaporation and altitude effects have caused enrichment of δ 18 O and δ 2 H in dry season and downstream of the river. Higher d-excess value than global average suggests that most of the stations were supplied by recycled moisture. Rainfall and groundwater were the major sources of surface flowing water in PRB; nevertheless, glacier from Mt. Kilimanjaro has insignificant contribution to the surface water. We recommend measures to be taken to reduce the level of fluoride and sodium before domestic use.

Multi-Decadal Aerosol Variations from 1980 to 2009: A Perspective from Observations and a Global Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian; Diehl, T.; Tan, Q.; Prospero, J. M.; Kahn, R. A.; Remer, L. A.; Yu, H.; Sayer, A. M.; Bian, H.; Geogdzhayev, I. V.;

Assessment of indoor radon, thoron concentrations, and their relationship with seasonal variation and geology of Udhampur district, Jammu & Kashmir, India.

PubMed

Kumar, Ajay; Sharma, Sumit; Mehra, Rohit; Narang, Saurabh; Mishra, Rosaline

2017-07-01

Background The inhalation doses resulting from the exposure to radon, thoron, and their progeny are important quantities in estimating the radiation risk for epidemiological studies as the average global annual effective dose due to radon and its progeny is 1.3 mSv as compared to that of 2.4 mSv due to all other natural sources of ionizing radiation. Objectives The annual inhalation dose has been assessed with an aim of investigating the health risk to the inhabitants of the studied region. Methods Time integrated deposition based 222 Rn/ 220 Rn sensors have been used to measure concentrations in 146 dwellings of Udhampur district, Jammu and Kashmir. An active smart RnDuo monitor has also been used for comparison purposes. Results The range of indoor radon/thoron concentrations is found to vary from 11 to 58 Bqm -3 with an average value of 29 ± 9 Bqm -3 and from 25 to 185 Bqm -3 with an average value of 83 ± 32 Bqm -3 , respectively. About 10.7% dwellings have higher values than world average of 40 Bqm -3 prescribed by UNSCEAR. The relationship of indoor radon and thoron levels with different seasons, ventilation conditions, and different geological formations have been discussed. Conclusions The observed values of concentrations and average annual effective dose due to radon, thoron, and its progeny in the study area have been found to be below the recommended level of ICRP. The observed concentrations of 222 Rn and 220 Rn measured with active and passive techniques are found to be in good agreement.

Indoor 222Rn measurement and hazards indices in houses of Al-Najaf province - Iraq

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebrahiem, Sameera A.; Falih, Esraa H.; Mahdi, Hind Abdul Majeed; Shaban, Auday H.

2018-05-01

In this paper, the measurement the 222Rn concentrations for different houses in ten reigns for Al-Najaf province, 222Rn concentrations were measurement by using RAD-7 detector. The results indicate that, the less value of 222Rn concentrations was found in Al-Motanaby region which was (88 Bq/m3), while the highest value of 222Rn concentrations was found in Al-Forat region which was (193 Bq/m3), with average value of (143.4±27.6 Bq/m3), all the results are less than the recommended range from value of (200-300 Bq/m3). The radiation hazard indices [PAEC, EP, AED and CPPP] also found to be less than the global limit

Ruminant Methane δ (13C/12C) - Values: Relation to Atmospheric Methane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rust, Fleet

1981-03-01

The δ (13C/12C) - values of methane produced by fistulated steers, dairy cattle, and wethers, and dairy and beef cattle herds show a bimodal distribution that appears to be correlated with the plant type (C3 or C4, that is, producing either a three- or a four-carbon acid in the first step of photosynthesis) consumed by the animals. These results indicate that cattle and sheep, on a global basis, release methane with an average δ (13C/12C) value of -60 and -63 per mil, respectively. Together they are a source of atmospheric methane whose δ (13C/12C) is similar to published values for marsh gas and cannot explain the 20 per mil higher values for atmospheric methane.

Sea level variation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglas, Bruce C.

1992-01-01

Published values for the long-term, global mean sea level rise determined from tide gauge records range from about one to three mm per year. The scatter of the estimates appears to arise largely from the use of data from gauges located at convergent tectonic plate boundaries where changes of land elevation give fictitious sea level trends, and the effects of large interdecadal and longer sea level variations on short (less than 50+ years) or sappy records. In addition, virtually all gauges undergo subsidence or uplift due to isostatic rebound from the last deglaciation at a rate comparable to or greater than the secular rise of sea level. Modeling rebound by the ICE-3G model of Tushingham and Peltier (1990) and avoiding tide gauge records in areas of converging tectonic plates produces a highly consistent set of long sea level records. A global set of 21 such stations in nine oceanic regions with an average record length of 76 years during the period 1880-1980 yields the global sea level rise value 1.8 mm/year +/- 0.1. Greenhouse warming scenarios commonly forecast an additional acceleration of global sea level in the next 5 or 6+ decades in the range 0.1-0.2 mm/yr2. Because of the large power at low frequencies in the sea level spectrum, very long tide gauge records (75 years minimum) have been examined for past apparent sea level acceleration. For the 80-year period 1905-1985, 23 essentially complete tide gauge records in 10 geographic groups are available for analysis. These yielded the apparent global acceleration -0.011 (+/- 0.012) mm/yr2. A larger, less uniform set of 37 records in the same 10 groups with 92 years average length covering the 141 years from 1850-1991 gave 0.001 (+/- 0.008) mm/yr2. Thus there is no evidence for an apparent acceleration in the past 100+ years that is significant either statistically, or in comparison to values associated with global warming. Unfortunately, the large interdecadal fluctuations of sea level severely affect estimates of global sea level acceleration for time spans of less than about 50 years. This means that tide gauges alone cannot serve as a reliable leading indicator of climate change in less than many decades. This time required can be significantly reduced if the interdecadal fluctuations of sea level can be understood in terms of their forcing mechanisms, and then removed from the tide gauge records.

Dealing with uncertainty in water scarcity footprints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherer, Laura; Pfister, Stephan

2016-05-01

Water scarcity adversely affects ecosystems, human well-being and the economy. It can be described by water scarcity indices (WSIs) which we calculated globally for the decades 1981-1990 and 2001-2010. Based on a model ensemble, we calculated the WSI for both decades including uncertainties. While there is a slight tendency of increased water scarcity in 2001-2010, the likelihood of the increase is rather low (53%). Climate change played only a minor role, but increased water consumption is more decisive. In the last decade, a large share of the global population already lived under highly water scarce conditions with a global average monthly WSI of 0.51 (on a scale from 0 to 1). Considering that globally there are enough water resources to satisfy all our needs, this highlights the need for regional optimization of water consumption. In addition, crop choices within a food group can help reduce humanity’s water scarcity footprint without reducing its nutritional value.

Comparison of clinical tools for measurements of regional stress and rest myocardial blood flow assessed with 13N-ammonia PET/CT.

PubMed

Slomka, Piotr J; Alexanderson, Erick; Jácome, Rodrigo; Jiménez, Moises; Romero, Edgar; Meave, Aloha; Le Meunier, Ludovic; Dalhbom, Magnus; Berman, Daniel S; Germano, Guido; Schelbert, Heinrich

2012-02-01

Several models for the quantitative analysis of myocardial blood flow (MBF) at stress and rest and myocardial flow reserve (MFR) with (13)N-ammonia myocardial perfusion PET have been implemented for clinical use. We aimed to compare quantitative results obtained from 3 software tools (QPET, syngo MBF, and PMOD), which perform PET MBF quantification with either a 2-compartment model (QPET and syngo MBF) or a 1-compartment model (PMOD). We considered 33 adenosine stress and rest (13)N-ammonia studies (22 men and 11 women). Average age was 54.5 ± 15 y, and average body mass index was 26 ± 4.2. Eighteen patients had a very low likelihood of disease, with no chest pain, normal relative perfusion results, and normal function. All data were obtained on a PET/CT scanner in list mode with CT attenuation maps. Sixteen dynamic frames were reconstructed (twelve 10-s, two 30-s, one 1-min, and one 6-min frames). Global and regional stress and rest MBF and MFR values were obtained with each tool. Left ventricular contours and input function region were obtained automatically in system QPET and syngo MBF and manually in PMOD. The flow values and MFR values were highly correlated among the 3 packages (R(2) ranging from 0.88 to 0.92 for global values and from 0.78 to 0.94 for regional values. Mean reference MFR values were similar for QPET, syngo MBF, and PMOD (3.39 ± 1.22, 3.41 ± 0.76, and 3.66 ± 1.19, respectively) by 1-way ANOVA (P = 0.74). The lowest MFR in very low likelihood patients in any given vascular territory was 2.25 for QPET, 2.13 for syngo MBF, and 2.23 for PMOD. Different implementations of 1- and 2-compartment models demonstrate an excellent correlation in MFR for each vascular territory, with similar mean MFR values.

A mechanics framework for a progressive failure methodology for laminated composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, Charles E.; Allen, David H.; Lo, David C.

1989-01-01

A laminate strength and life prediction methodology has been postulated for laminated composites which accounts for the progressive development of microstructural damage to structural failure. A damage dependent constitutive model predicts the stress redistribution in an average sense that accompanies damage development in laminates. Each mode of microstructural damage is represented by a second-order tensor valued internal state variable which is a strain like quantity. The mechanics framework together with the global-local strategy for predicting laminate strength and life is presented in the paper. The kinematic effects of damage are represented by effective engineering moduli in the global analysis and the results of the global analysis provide the boundary conditions for the local ply level stress analysis. Damage evolution laws are based on experimental results.

Local versus global knowledge in the Barabási-Albert scale-free network model.

PubMed

Gómez-Gardeñes, Jesús; Moreno, Yamir

2004-03-01

The scale-free model of Barabási and Albert (BA) gave rise to a burst of activity in the field of complex networks. In this paper, we revisit one of the main assumptions of the model, the preferential attachment (PA) rule. We study a model in which the PA rule is applied to a neighborhood of newly created nodes and thus no global knowledge of the network is assumed. We numerically show that global properties of the BA model such as the connectivity distribution and the average shortest path length are quite robust when there is some degree of local knowledge. In contrast, other properties such as the clustering coefficient and degree-degree correlations differ and approach the values measured for real-world networks.

Interpretation of lunar heat flow data. [for estimating bulk uranium abundance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Conel, J. E.; Morton, J. B.

1975-01-01

Lunar heat flow observations at the Apollo 15 and 17 sites can be interpreted to imply bulk U concentrations for the moon of 5 to 8 times those of normal chondrites and 2 to 4 times terrestrial values inferred from the earth's heat flow and the assumption of thermal steady state between surface heat flow and heat production. A simple model of nearsurface structure that takes into account the large difference in (highly insulating) regolith thickness between mare and highland provinces is considered. This model predicts atypically high local values of heat flow near the margins of mare regions - possibly a factor of 10 or so higher than the global average. A test of the proposed model using multifrequency microwave techniques appears possible wherein heat flow traverse measurements are made across mare-highland contacts. The theoretical considerations discussed here urge caution in attributing global significance to point heat-flow measurements on the moon.

Do initial conditions matter? A comparison of model climatologies generated from different initial states

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Cohen, C.; Wu, P.

1981-01-01

A coarse mesh (8 by 10) 7 layer global climate model was used to compute 15 months of meteorological history in two perpetual January experiments on a water planet (without continents) with a zonally symmetric climatological January sea surface temperature field. In the first of the two water planet experiments the initial atmospheric state was a set of zonal mean values of specific humidity, temperature, and wind at each latitude. In the second experiment the model was initialized with globally uniform mean values of specific humidity and temperature on each sigma level surface, constant surface pressure (1010 mb), and zero wind everywhere. A comparison was made of the mean January climatic states generated by the two water planet experiments. The first two months of each 15 January run were discarded, and 13 month averages were computed from months 3 through 15.

A technique for global monitoring of net solar irradiance at the ocean surface. I - Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frouin, Robert; Chertock, Beth

1992-01-01

An accurate long-term (84-month) climatology of net surface solar irradiance over the global oceans from Nimbus-7 earth radiation budget (ERB) wide-field-of-view planetary-albedo data is generated via an algorithm based on radiative transfer theory. Net surface solar irradiance is computed as the difference between the top-of-atmosphere incident solar irradiance (known) and the sum of the solar irradiance reflected back to space by the earth-atmosphere system (observed) and the solar irradiance absorbed by atmospheric constituents (modeled). It is shown that the effects of clouds and clear-atmosphere constituents can be decoupled on a monthly time scale, which makes it possible to directly apply the algorithm with monthly averages of ERB planetary-albedo data. Compared theoretically with the algorithm of Gautier et al. (1980), the present algorithm yields higher solar irradiance values in clear and thin cloud conditions and lower values in thick cloud conditions.

Aster Global dem Version 3, and New Aster Water Body Dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abrams, M.

2016-06-01

In 2016, the US/Japan ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) project released Version 3 of the Global DEM (GDEM). This 30 m DEM covers the earth's surface from 82N to 82S, and improves on two earlier versions by correcting some artefacts and filling in areas of missing DEMs by the acquisition of additional data. The GDEM was produced by stereocorrelation of 2 million ASTER scenes and operation on a pixel-by-pixel basis: cloud screening; stacking data from overlapping scenes; removing outlier values, and averaging elevation values. As previously, the GDEM is packaged in ~ 23,000 1 x 1 degree tiles. Each tile has a DEM file, and a NUM file reporting the number of scenes used for each pixel, and identifying the source for fill-in data (where persistent clouds prevented computation of an elevation value). An additional data set was concurrently produced and released: the ASTER Water Body Dataset (AWBD). This is a 30 m raster product, which encodes every pixel as either lake, river, or ocean; thus providing a global inland and shore-line water body mask. Water was identified through spectral analysis algorithms and manual editing. This product was evaluated against the Shuttle Water Body Dataset (SWBD), and the Landsat-based Global Inland Water (GIW) product. The SWBD only covers the earth between about 60 degrees north and south, so it is not a global product. The GIW only delineates inland water bodies, and does not deal with ocean coastlines. All products are at 30 m postings.

Life cycle impact assessment of ammonia production in Algeria: A comparison with previous studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Makhlouf, Ali, E-mail: almakhsme@gmail.com; Serradj, Tayeb; Cheniti, Hamza

In this paper, a Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) from “cradle to gate” of one anhydrous ton of ammonia with a purity of 99% was achieved. Particularly, the energy and environmental performance of the product (ammonia) were evaluated. The eco-profile of the product and the share of each stage of the Life Cycle on the whole environmental impacts have been evaluated. The flows of material and energy for each phase of the life cycle were counted and the associated environmental problems were identified. Evaluation of the impact was achieved using GEMIS 4.7 software. The primary data collection was executed at themore » production installations located in Algeria (Annaba locality). The analysis was conducted according to the LCA standards ISO 14040 series. The results show that Cumulative Energy Requirement (CER) is of 51.945 × 10{sup 3} MJ/t of ammonia, which is higher than the global average. Global Warming Potential (GWP) is of 1.44 t CO{sub 2} eq/t of ammonia; this value is lower than the world average. Tropospheric ozone precursor and Acidification are also studied in this article, their values are: 549.3 × 10{sup −6} t NMVOC eq and 259.3 × 10{sup −6} t SO{sub 2} eq respectively.« less

Sediment Carbon Accumulation in Southern Latitude Saltmarsh Communities of Tasmania, Australia.

PubMed

Ellison, Joanna C; Beasy, Kim M

2018-05-02

Carbon sequestration values of wetlands are greatest in their sediments. Northern hemisphere research dominates the earlier saltmarsh carbon sequestration literature, recently augmented by analyses across mainland Australia where species assemblages, catchment histories and environmental settings differ. No previous assessment has been made for Tasmania. Carbon stores and accumulation rates in saltmarsh sediments of the Rubicon estuary, Tasmania, were investigated. Carbon was determined from sediment cores by Elemental Analyser, combined with analysis of organic content and bulk density. Carbon accumulation was determined using short-term and long-term sediment accretion indicators. Results showed carbon densities to be lower than global averages, with variation found between carbon stores of native and introduced species zones. Cores from introduced Spartina anglica indicated a trend of higher sediment carbon percentages relative to cores from native saltmarsh Juncus kraussii and Sarcocornia quinqueflora , and in finer grain sizes. Sediment carbon stock of 30 cm depths was 49.5 Mg C ha −1 for native saltmarsh and 55.5 Mg C ha −1 for Spartina . Carbon percentages were low owing to high catchment inorganic sediment yields, however carbon accumulation rates were similar to global averages, particularly under Spartina . Covering 85% of saltmarsh area in the estuary, Spartina contributes the majority to carbon stores, potentially indicating a previously unrecognized value for this invasive species in Australia.

Influence of water stress on the carbon isotopic composition of modern plants: Implications for C4 plant appearance in Indian subcontinent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, S.; Ghosh, S.; Sanyal, P.

2016-12-01

The carbon isotopic composition (d13C) of modern terrestrial plants (C3 and C4) provides the baseline to understand past vegetation composition, paleodietary changes and animal migration etc. Accuracy of past environment reconstruction is dependent on the end-member d13C values of plants which found to vary in regional scale. For instance, the d13C values of Indian C3 plants (d13CC3) are 1 to 2‰ more negative compared to global mean. As observed, most of the previous database is devoid of samples from tropical monsoon realm (like India) and the difference between global and regional mean may introduce errors in vegetation reconstruction. To constrain end-member d13CC3 value, published and newly generated results from wide range of mean annual precipitation (MAP: 1-11,700 mm) are compiled which is ca. 1.5 higher in sample size (n=2440) compared to previous database. Using logarithmic function, new relationship between d13C value and MAP (d13CC3 (‰) =20.1585(0.3061)-1.1276(0.0489)ln(MAP+700)) is proposed. The modeled mean d13CC3 value (-28.9‰) is close to average d13CC3 value for Indian plants (-29.1‰) and suggests the importance of vegetation from low-latitudinal tropical region in global compilation. It was observed that C3 plants, on a global scale, are less sensitive to wet climate relative to dry condition. This inference is in agreement with the paleoclimatic data from Indian subcontinent for the late Quaternary period. Despite well established correlation between d13CC3 value and MAP, previous investigation from Indian subcontinent used fixed end-member values to reconstruct past vegetation and total change in the d13C value of proxies was attributed to changes in relative abundance of C3 and C4 plants. Using region-specific mean d13C value of plants, after correcting for changing MAP and error propagation, existence of C4 before ca. 11 Ma plant is observed; earlier to previous reported timing.

The global financial crisis and Australian general practice.

PubMed

McRae, Ian S; Paolucci, Francesco

2011-02-01

To explore the potential effects of the global financial crisis (GFC) on the market for general practitioner (GP) services in Australia. We estimate the impact of changes in unemployment rates on demand for GP services and the impact of lost asset values on GP retirement plans and work patterns. Combining these supply and demand effects, we estimate the potential effect of the GFC on the market for GP services under various scenarios. If deferral of retirement increases GP availability by 2%, and historic trends to reduce GP working hours are halved, at the current level of ~5.2% unemployment average fees would decline by $0.23 per GP consultation and volumes of GP services would rise by 2.53% with almost no change in average GP gross earnings over what would otherwise have occurred. With 8.5% unemployment, as initially predicted by Treasury, GP fees would increase by $0.91 and GP income by nearly 3%. The GFC is likely to increase activity in the GP market and potentially to reduce fee levels relative to the pre-GFC trends. Net effects on average GP incomes are likely to be small at current unemployment levels.

Assessing the Monthly Averaged Variability of TOA Fluxes from CERES using EBAF, ERBE-like and FLASHFlux Data From 2001 to Present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stackhouse, Paul; Wong, Takmeng; Kratz, David; Gupta, Shashi; Wiber, Anne; Edwards, Anne

2010-05-01

The FLASHFlux (Fast Longwave and Shortwave radiative Fluxes from CERES and MODIS) project derives daily averaged gridded top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiative fluxes within one week of observation. Production of CERES based TOA and surface fluxes is achieved by using the latest CERES calibration that is assumed constant in time and by making simplifying assumptions in the computation of time and space averaged quantities. Together these assumptions result in approximately a 1% increase in the uncertainty for FLASHFlux products over CERES. Analysis has clearly demonstrated that the global-annual mean outgoing longwave radiation shows a decrease of ~0.75 Wm-2, from 2007 to 2008, while the global-annual mean reflected shortwave radiation shows a decrease of 0.14 Wm-2 over that same period. Thus, the combined longwave and shortwave changes have resulted in an increase of ~0.89 Wm-2 in net radiation into the Earth climate system in 2008. A time series of TOA fluxes was constructed from CERES EBAF, CERES ERBE-like and FLASHFLUX. Relative to this multi-dataset average from 2001 to 2008, the 2008 global-annual mean anomalies are -0.54/-0.26/+0.80 Wm-2, respectively, for the longwave/shortwave/net radiation. These flux values, which were published in the NOAA 2008 State of the Climate Report, are within their corresponding 2-sigma interannual variabilities for this period. This paper extends these results through 2009, where the net flux is observed to recover. The TOA LW variability is also compared to AIRS OLR showing excellent agreement in the anomalies. The variability appears very well correlated to the to the 2007-2009 La Nina/El Nino cycles, which altered the global distribution of clouds, total column water vapor and temperature. Reassessments of these results are expected when newer Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data are released.

Greenhouse effect in the atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smirnov, B. M.

2016-04-01

Average optical atmospheric parameters for the infrared spectrum range are evaluated on the basis of the Earth energetic balance and parameters of the standard atmosphere. The average optical thickness of the atmosphere is u ≈ 2.5 and this atmospheric emission is originated at altitudes below 10 km. Variations of atmospheric radiative fluxes towards the Earth and outward are calculated as a function of the concentration of \\text{CO}2 molecules for the regular model of molecular spectrum. As a result of doubling of the \\text{CO}2 concentration the change of the global Earth temperature is (0.4 +/- 0.2) \\text{K} if other atmospheric parameters are conserved compared to the value (3.0 +/- 1.5) \\text{K} under real atmospheric conditions with the variation of the amount of atmospheric water. An observed variation of the global Earth temperature during the last century (0.8 ^\\circ \\text{C}) follows from an increase of the mass of atmospheric water by 7% or by conversion of 1% of atmospheric water in aerosols.

Suitable Environmental Ranges for Potential Coral Reef Habitats in the Tropical Ocean

PubMed Central

Guan, Yi; Hohn, Sönke; Merico, Agostino

2015-01-01

Coral reefs are found within a limited range of environmental conditions or tolerance limits. Estimating these limits is a critical prerequisite for understanding the impacts of climate change on the biogeography of coral reefs. Here we used the diagnostic model ReefHab to determine the current environmental tolerance limits for coral reefs and the global distribution of potential coral reef habitats as a function of six factors: temperature, salinity, nitrate, phosphate, aragonite saturation state, and light. To determine these tolerance limits, we extracted maximum and minimum values of all environmental variables in corresponding locations where coral reefs are present. We found that the global, annually averaged tolerance limits for coral reefs are 21.7—29.6 °C for temperature, 28.7—40.4 psu for salinity, 4.51 μmol L-1 for nitrate, 0.63 μmol L-1 for phosphate, and 2.82 for aragonite saturation state. The averaged minimum light intensity in coral reefs is 450 μmol photons m-2 s-1. The global area of potential reef habitats calculated by the model is 330.5 × 103 km2. Compared with previous studies, the tolerance limits for temperature, salinity, and nutrients have not changed much, whereas the minimum value of aragonite saturation in coral reef waters has decreased from 3.28 to 2.82. The potential reef habitat area calculated with ReefHab is about 121×103 km2 larger than the area estimated from the charted reefs, suggesting that the growth potential of coral reefs is higher than currently observed. PMID:26030287

Suitable environmental ranges for potential coral reef habitats in the tropical ocean.

PubMed

Guan, Yi; Hohn, Sönke; Merico, Agostino

2015-01-01

Coral reefs are found within a limited range of environmental conditions or tolerance limits. Estimating these limits is a critical prerequisite for understanding the impacts of climate change on the biogeography of coral reefs. Here we used the diagnostic model ReefHab to determine the current environmental tolerance limits for coral reefs and the global distribution of potential coral reef habitats as a function of six factors: temperature, salinity, nitrate, phosphate, aragonite saturation state, and light. To determine these tolerance limits, we extracted maximum and minimum values of all environmental variables in corresponding locations where coral reefs are present. We found that the global, annually averaged tolerance limits for coral reefs are 21.7-29.6 °C for temperature, 28.7-40.4 psu for salinity, 4.51 μmol L-1 for nitrate, 0.63 μmol L-1 for phosphate, and 2.82 for aragonite saturation state. The averaged minimum light intensity in coral reefs is 450 μmol photons m-2 s-1. The global area of potential reef habitats calculated by the model is 330.5 × 103 km2. Compared with previous studies, the tolerance limits for temperature, salinity, and nutrients have not changed much, whereas the minimum value of aragonite saturation in coral reef waters has decreased from 3.28 to 2.82. The potential reef habitat area calculated with ReefHab is about 121×103 km2 larger than the area estimated from the charted reefs, suggesting that the growth potential of coral reefs is higher than currently observed.

Global Summary MGS TES Data and Mars-Gram Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C.; Johnson, D.; Parker, Nelson C. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2001) is an engineering-level Mars atmosphere model widely used for many Mars mission applications. From 0-80 km, it is based on NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM), while above 80 km it is based on University of Arizona Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model. Mars-GRAM 2001 and MGCM use surface topograph$ from Mars Global Surveyor Mars Orbiting Laser Altimeter (MOLA). Validation studies are described comparing Mars-GRAM with a global summary data set of Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) data. TES averages and standard deviations were assembled from binned TES data which covered surface to approx. 40 km, over more than a full Mars year (February, 1999 - June, 2001, just before start of a Mars global dust storm). TES data were binned in 10-by-10 degree latitude-longitude bins (i.e. 36 longitude bins by 19 latitude bins), 12 seasonal bins (based on 30 degree increments of Ls angle). Bin averages and standard deviations were assembled at 23 data levels (temperature at 21 pressure levels, plus surface temperature and surface pressure). Two time-of day bins were used: local time near 2 or 14 hours local time). Two dust optical depth bins wereused: infrared optical depth either less than or greater than 0.25 (which corresponds to visible optical depth either less than or greater than about 0.5). For interests in aerocapture and precision entry and landing, comparisons focused on atmospheric density. TES densities versus height were computed from TES temperature versus pressure, using assumptions of perfect gas law and hydrostatics. Mars-GRAM validation studies used density ratio (TES/Mars-GRAM) evaluated at data bin center points in space and time. Observed average TES/Mars-GRAM density ratios were generally 1+/-0.05, except at high altitudes (15-30 km, depending on season) and high latitudes (> 45 deg N), or at most altitudes in the southern hemisphere at Ls approx. 90 and 180deg). Compared to TES averages for a given latitude and season, TES data had average density standard deviation about the mean of approx. 65-10.5% (varying with height) for all data, or approx. 5-12%, depending on time of day and dust optical depth. Average standard deviation of TES/Mars-GRAM density ratio was 8.9% for local time 2 hours and 7.1% for local time 14 hours. Thus standard deviation of observed TES/Mars-GRAM density ratio, evaluated at matching positions and times, is about the same as the standard deviation of TES data about the TES mean value at a given position and season.

Stability of the Martian atmosphere: Is heterogeneous catalysis essential?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atreya, Sushil K.; Gu, Zhen Gang

1994-01-01

A comprehensive homogeneous gas phase photochemical model is developed to study the problem of stability of the Martian atmosphere. The one-dimensional model extends from the ground up to 220 km, passing through the homopause at 125 km. The model thus couples the lower (neutral) atmosphere to the ionosphere above which provides significant downward flux of carbon monoxide and oxygen atoms. It is concluded on the basic of currently accepted values for globally and seasonally averaged water vapor abundance, dust opacity and the middle atmospheric eddy mixing coefficient, as well as the relevant laboratory data (particularly the temperature dependence of CO2 absorption cross section and the rate constant for CO+OH reaction), that the rate of re-formation of carbon dioxide exceeds its photolytic destruction rate by about 40%. Furthermore, it is found that this result is virtually independent of the choice of eddy mixing coefficient, unless its value in the middle atmosphere exceeds 10(exp 8) sq cm/sec or is far smaller than 10(exp 5)sq cm/sec, or the dust opacity, unless it exceeds unity, or the water vapor mixing ratio at the surface, unless it is far smaller (less than or = 1 ppm) or far greater (greater than or = 500 ppm) than the average value (approximately 150 ppm). Since none of these extremes represent globally and seasonally averaged conditions on Mars, we propose that the present model requires existence of a mechanism to throttle down the recycling rate of carbon dioxide on Mars. Therefore, it is suggested that a heterogeneous process which provides a sink to the species that participate in the recycling of CO2, i.e., H2O, H2O2, OH, CO or O, in particular, may be necessary to bring about the balance between the CO2 recycling rate and its photolytic destruction rate. Aerosols of dust or ice (pure or doped water or carbon dioxide ice present in the atmosphere of Mars) can provide the appropriate adsorption sites for the above heterogeneous process. Despite our conclusion that some heterogeneous process may be needed, it is important to recognize that one-dimensional models can only provide first-order results which, most likely, represent globally and seasonally averaged conditions. However, it is only after actual temporal, latitudinal and longitudinal variations of relevant atmospheric parameters are included in the model that one can determine fuly whether the problem of atmospheric stabiltiy still continues to persist and whether some heterogeneous process is required to correct it.

Estimates of N2O, NO and NH3 Emissions From Croplands in East, Southeast and South Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, X.; Ohara, T.; Akimoto, H.

2002-12-01

Agricultural activities have greatly altered the global nitrogen cycle and produced nitrogenous gases of environmentally significance. More than half of the global chemical nitrogen fertilizer is used for crop production in East, Southeast and South Asia where rice the center of nutrition. Emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), nitric oxide (NO) and ammonia (NH3) from croplands in this region were estimated by considering both background emission and emissions resulted from nitrogen added to croplands, including chemical nitrogen, animal manure used as fertilizer, biological fixed nitrogen and nitrogen in crop residue returned to field. Background emission fluxes of N2O and NO from croplands were estimated at 1.16 and 0.52 kg N ha-1yr-1, respectively. A fertilizer-induced N2O emission factor of 1.25% for upland was adopted from IPCC guidelines, and a factor of 0.25% was derived for paddy field from measurements. Total N2O emission from croplands in the region was estimated at 1.16 Tg N yr-1, with 41% contributed by background emission which was not considered in previous global estimates. However, the average fertilizer-induced N2O emission is only 0.93%, lower than the default IPCC value of 1.25% due to the low emission factor from paddy field. A fertilizer-induced NO emission factor of 0.66% for upland was derived from field measurements, and a factor of 0.13% was assumed for paddy field. Total NO emission was 572 Gg N yr-1 in the region, with 38% due to background emission. Average fertilizer-induce NO emission factor was 0.48%. Extrapolating this estimate to global scale will result in a global NO emission from cropland of 1.6 Tg N yr-1, smaller than other global estimates. Total NH3 emission was estimated at 11.8 Tg N yr-1. The use of urea and ammonium bicarbonate and the cultivation of rice lead to a high average NH3 loss rate of chemical fertilizer in the region. Emissions were distributed at 0.5° grid by using a global landuse database.

Seasonality, interannual variability, and linear tendency of wind speeds in the northeast Brazil from 1986 to 2011.

PubMed

Torres Silva dos Santos, Alexandre; Moisés Santos e Silva, Cláudio

2013-01-01

Wind speed analyses are currently being employed in several fields, especially in wind power generation. In this study, we used wind speed data from records of Universal Fuess anemographs at an altitude of 10 m from 47 weather stations of the National Institute of Meteorology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia-INMET) from January 1986 to December 2011. The objective of the study was to investigate climatological aspects and wind speed trends. To this end, the following methods were used: filling of missing data, descriptive statistical calculations, boxplots, cluster analysis, and trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall statistical method. The seasonal variability of the average wind speeds of each group presented higher values for winter and spring and lower values in the summer and fall. The groups G1, G2, and G5 showed higher annual averages in the interannual variability of wind speeds. These observed peaks were attributed to the El Niño and La Niña events, which change the behavior of global wind circulation and influence wind speeds over the region. Trend analysis showed more significant negative values for the G3, G4, and G5 groups for all seasons of the year and in the annual average for the period under study.

Seasonality, Interannual Variability, and Linear Tendency of Wind Speeds in the Northeast Brazil from 1986 to 2011

PubMed Central

Santos e Silva, Cláudio Moisés

2013-01-01

Wind speed analyses are currently being employed in several fields, especially in wind power generation. In this study, we used wind speed data from records of Universal Fuess anemographs at an altitude of 10 m from 47 weather stations of the National Institute of Meteorology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia-INMET) from January 1986 to December 2011. The objective of the study was to investigate climatological aspects and wind speed trends. To this end, the following methods were used: filling of missing data, descriptive statistical calculations, boxplots, cluster analysis, and trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall statistical method. The seasonal variability of the average wind speeds of each group presented higher values for winter and spring and lower values in the summer and fall. The groups G1, G2, and G5 showed higher annual averages in the interannual variability of wind speeds. These observed peaks were attributed to the El Niño and La Niña events, which change the behavior of global wind circulation and influence wind speeds over the region. Trend analysis showed more significant negative values for the G3, G4, and G5 groups for all seasons of the year and in the annual average for the period under study. PMID:24250267

Probabilistic Change of Wheat Productivity and Water Use in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yujie; Chen, Qiaomin

2017-04-01

Impacts of climate change on agriculture are a major concern worldwide, but uncertainties of climate models and emission scenarios may hamper efforts to adapt to climate change. In this paper, a probabilistic approach is used to estimate the uncertainties and simulate impacts of global warming on wheat production and water use in the main wheat cultivation regions of China, with a global mean temperature (GMT) increase scale relative to 1961-90 values. From output of 20 climate scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Data Distribution Centre, median values of projected changes in monthly mean climate variables for representative stations are adapted. These are used to drive the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-Wheat model to simulate wheat production and water use under baseline and global warming scenarios, with and without consideration of carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effects. Results show that, because of temperature increase, projected wheat-growing periods for GMT changes of 18, 28, and 38C would shorten, with averaged median values of 3.94%, 6.90%, and 9.67%, respectively. There is a high probability of decreasing (increasing) changes in yield and water-use efficiency under higher temperature scenarios without (with) consideration of CO2 fertilization effects. Elevated CO2 concentration generally compensates for the negative effects of warming temperatures on production. Moreover, positive effects of elevated CO2 concentration on grain yield increase with warming temperatures. The findings could be critical for climate-change-driven agricultural production that ensures global food security.

Hydrological Validation of The Lpj Dynamic Global Vegetation Model - First Results and Required Actions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haberlandt, U.; Gerten, D.; Schaphoff, S.; Lucht, W.

Dynamic global vegetation models are developed with the main purpose to describe the spatio-temporal dynamics of vegetation at the global scale. Increasing concern about climate change impacts has put the focus of recent applications on the sim- ulation of the global carbon cycle. Water is a prime driver of biogeochemical and biophysical processes, thus an appropriate representation of the water cycle is crucial for their proper simulation. However, these models usually lack thorough validation of the water balance they produce. Here we present a hydrological validation of the current version of the LPJ (Lund- Potsdam-Jena) model, a dynamic global vegetation model operating at daily time steps. Long-term simulated runoff and evapotranspiration are compared to literature values, results from three global hydrological models, and discharge observations from various macroscale river basins. It was found that the seasonal and spatial patterns of the LPJ-simulated average values correspond well both with the measurements and the results from the stand-alone hy- drological models. However, a general underestimation of runoff occurs, which may be attributable to the low input dynamics of precipitation (equal distribution within a month), to the simulated vegetation pattern (potential vegetation without anthro- pogenic influence), and to some generalizations of the hydrological components in LPJ. Future research will focus on a better representation of the temporal variability of climate forcing, improved description of hydrological processes, and on the consider- ation of anthropogenic land use.

Intercomparison of global, ultraviolet B and A radiation measurements in the Dead Sea region (Ein Bokek) and Beer Sheva.

PubMed

Kushelevsky, A P; Kudish, A I

1996-07-01

Thousands of patients suffering from psoriasis have been treated successfully in the Dead Sea area by climatological methods, without medication. This high rate of success, measured in terms of partial to complete plaque clearance and reported to exceed 85% after 3-4 weeks of treatment, has been assumed to be associated with a unique ultraviolet (UV) radiation environment present in the Dead Sea region. In order to broaden our knowledge of the UV radiation environment at the Dead Sea, continuous monitoring of UV (both B and A) and global radiation has recently been initiated at two sites--Ein Bokek (located in the vicinity of the Dead Sea 375 m below mean sea level) and Beer Sheva (315 m above mean sea level)--to facilitate an intercomparison of their respective radiation intensities. The results of the first year of a detailed study of the global, UVB and UVA radiation intensities measured at both sites are summarized and reported in terms of the monthly average daily, average midday (11:00-13:00) and the corresponding maximum values. The radiation data for clear days (based upon the absolute magnitude of the global radiation) were also analyzed to perform an intercomparison between Ein Bokek and Beer Sheva for a winter month and a summer month for which all three types of radiation data were available at both sites.

The use of Meteonorm weather generator for climate change studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remund, J.; Müller, S. C.; Schilter, C.; Rihm, B.

2010-09-01

The global climatological database Meteonorm (www.meteonorm.com) is widely used as meteorological input for simulation of solar applications and buildings. It's a combination of a climate database, a spatial interpolation tool and a stochastic weather generator. Like this typical years with hourly or minute time resolution can be calculated for any site. The input of Meteonorm for global radiation is the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA, http://proto-geba.ethz.ch). All other meteorological parameters are taken from databases of WMO and NCDC (periods 1961-90 and 1996-2005). The stochastic generation of global radiation is based on a Markov chain model for daily values and an autoregressive model for hourly and minute values (Aguiar and Collares-Pereira, 1988 and 1992). The generation of temperature is based on global radiation and measured distribution of daily temperature values of approx. 5000 sites. Meteonorm generates also additional parameters like precipitation, wind speed or radiation parameters like diffuse and direct normal irradiance. Meteonorm can also be used for climate change studies. Instead of climate values, the results of IPCC AR4 results are used as input. From all 18 public models an average has been made at a resolution of 1°. The anomalies of the parameters temperature, precipitation and global radiation and the three scenarios B1, A1B and A2 have been included. With the combination of Meteonorm's current database 1961-90, the interpolation algorithms and the stochastic generation typical years can be calculated for any site, for different scenarios and for any period between 2010 and 2200. From the analysis of variations of year to year and month to month variations of temperature, precipitation and global radiation of the past ten years as well of climate model forecasts (from project prudence, http://prudence.dmi.dk) a simple autoregressive model has been formed which is used to generate realistic monthly time series of future periods. Meteonorm can therefore be used as a relatively simple method to enhance the spatial and temporal resolution instead of using complicated and time consuming downscaling methods based on regional climate models. The combination of Meteonorm, gridded historical (based on work of Luterbach et al.) and IPCC results has been used for studies of vegetation simulation between 1660 and 2600 (publication of first version based on IS92a scenario and limited time period 1950 - 2100: http://www.pbl.nl/images/H5_Part2_van%20CCE_opmaak%28def%29_tcm61-46625.pdf). It's also applicable for other adaptation studies for e.g. road surfaces or building simulation. In Meteonorm 6.1 one scenario (IS92a) and one climate model has been included (Hadley CM3). In the new Meteonorm 7 (coming spring 2011) the model averages of the three above mentioned scenarios of the IPCC AR4 will be included.

Local and global perspectives on the virtual water trade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamea, S.; Allamano, P.; Carr, J. A.; Claps, P.; Laio, F.; Ridolfi, L.

2012-11-01

Recent studies on fluxes of virtual water are showing how the global food and goods trade interconnects the water resources of different and distant countries, conditioning the local water balances. This paper presents and discusses the assessment of virtual water fluxes between a single country and its network of trading partners, delineating a country's virtual water budget in space and time (years 1986-2010). The fluxes between the country under study and its importing/exporting partners are visualized with a geographical representation shaping the trade network as a virtual river/delta. Time variations of exchanged fluxes are quantified to show possible trends in the virtual water balance, while characterizing the time evolution of the trade network and its composition in terms of product categories (plant-based, animal-based, luxury and non-edible). The average distance traveled by virtual water to arrive to the place of consumption is also introduced as a new measure for the analysis of globalization of the virtual water trade. Using Italy as an example, we find that food trade has a steadily growing importance compared to domestic production, with a major component represented by plan-based products, and luxury products taking an increasingly larger share (26% in 2010). In 2010 Italy had an average net import of 55 km3 of virtual water (38 km3 in 1986), a value which poses the country among the top net importers in the world. On average each cubic meter of virtual water travels nearly 4000 km before entering Italy, while export goes to relatively closer countries (average distance: 2600 km), with increasing trends in time which are almost unique among the world countries. Analyses proposed for Italy are replicated for 10 other world countries, triggering similar investigations on different socio-economic actualities.

Local and global perspectives on the virtual water trade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamea, S.; Allamano, P.; Carr, J. A.; Claps, P.; Laio, F.; Ridolfi, L.

2013-03-01

Recent studies on fluxes of virtual water are showing how the global food and goods trade interconnects the water resources of different and distant countries, conditioning the local water balances. This paper presents and discusses the assessment of virtual water fluxes between a single country and its network of trading partners, delineating a country's virtual water budget in space and time (years 1986-2010). The fluxes between the country under study and its importing/exporting partners are visualized with a geographical representation shaping the trade network as a virtual river/delta. Time variations of exchanged fluxes are quantified to show possible trends in the virtual water balance, while characterizing the time evolution of the trade network and its composition in terms of product categories (plant-based, animal-based, luxury food, and non-edible). The average distance traveled by virtual water to arrive to the place of consumption is also introduced as a new measure for the analysis of globalization of the virtual water trade. Using Italy as an example, we find that food trade has a steadily growing importance compared to domestic production, with a major component represented by plant-based products, and luxury products taking an increasingly larger share (26% in 2010). In 2010 Italy had an average net import of 55 km3 of virtual water (38 km3 in 1986), a value which poses the country among the top net importers in the world. On average each cubic meter of virtual water travels nearly 4000 km before entering Italy, while export goes to relatively closer countries (average distance: 2600 km), with increasing trends in time which are almost unique among the world countries. Analyses proposed for Italy are replicated for 10 other world countries, triggering similar investigations on different socio-economic actualities.

The feasibility of a regional CTDI{sub vol} to estimate organ dose from tube current modulated CT exams

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khatonabadi, Maryam; Kim, Hyun J.; Lu, Peiyun

Purpose: In AAPM Task Group 204, the size-specific dose estimate (SSDE) was developed by providing size adjustment factors which are applied to the Computed Tomography (CT) standardized dose metric, CTDI{sub vol}. However, that work focused on fixed tube current scans and did not specifically address tube current modulation (TCM) scans, which are currently the majority of clinical scans performed. The purpose of this study was to extend the SSDE concept to account for TCM by investigating the feasibility of using anatomic and organ specific regions of scanner output to improve accuracy of dose estimates. Methods: Thirty-nine adult abdomen/pelvis and 32more » chest scans from clinically indicated CT exams acquired on a multidetector CT using TCM were obtained with Institutional Review Board approval for generating voxelized models. Along with image data, raw projection data were obtained to extract TCM functions for use in Monte Carlo simulations. Patient size was calculated using the effective diameter described in TG 204. In addition, the scanner-reported CTDI{sub vol} (CTDI{sub vol,global}) was obtained for each patient, which is based on the average tube current across the entire scan. For the abdomen/pelvis scans, liver, spleen, and kidneys were manually segmented from the patient datasets; for the chest scans, lungs and for female models only, glandular breast tissue were segmented. For each patient organ doses were estimated using Monte Carlo Methods. To investigate the utility of regional measures of scanner output, regional and organ anatomic boundaries were identified from image data and used to calculate regional and organ-specific average tube current values. From these regional and organ-specific averages, CTDI{sub vol} values, referred to as regional and organ-specific CTDI{sub vol}, were calculated for each patient. Using an approach similar to TG 204, all CTDI{sub vol} values were used to normalize simulated organ doses; and the ability of each normalized dose to correlate with patient size was investigated. Results: For all five organs, the correlations with patient size increased when organ doses were normalized by regional and organ-specific CTDI{sub vol} values. For example, when estimating dose to the liver, CTDI{sub vol,global} yielded a R{sup 2} value of 0.26, which improved to 0.77 and 0.86, when using the regional and organ-specific CTDI{sub vol} for abdomen and liver, respectively. For breast dose, the global CTDI{sub vol} yielded a R{sup 2} value of 0.08, which improved to 0.58 and 0.83, when using the regional and organ-specific CTDI{sub vol} for chest and breasts, respectively. The R{sup 2} values also increased once the thoracic models were separated for the analysis into females and males, indicating differences between genders in this region not explained by a simple measure of effective diameter. Conclusions: This work demonstrated the utility of regional and organ-specific CTDI{sub vol} as normalization factors when using TCM. It was demonstrated that CTDI{sub vol,global} is not an effective normalization factor in TCM exams where attenuation (and therefore tube current) varies considerably throughout the scan, such as abdomen/pelvis and even thorax. These exams can be more accurately assessed for dose using regional CTDI{sub vol} descriptors that account for local variations in scanner output present when TCM is employed.« less

Uranium isotopes as a potential global-ocean redox proxy: a test from the Upper Pennsylvanian Hushpuckney Shale (Kansas, U.S.A.)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrmann, A. D.; Algeo, T. J.; Gordon, G. W.; Anbar, A. D.

2015-12-01

Uranium (U) isotope variation in marine sediments has been proposed as a proxy for changes in average global-ocean redox conditions. Here, we investigate U isotope variation in the black shale (BS) member of the Hushpuckney Shale (Swope Formation) at two sites ~400 km apart within the Late Paleozoic Midcontinent Sea (LPMS) of North America, with the goal of testing whether sediment δ238U records a global-ocean redox signal or local environmental influences. Our results document a spatial gradient of at least 0.25‰ in δ238U within the LPMS, demonstrating that local (probably redox) controls have overprinted any global U-isotope signal. Furthermore, the pattern of stratigraphic variation in δ238U in both study cores, with low values (‒0.4 to ‒0.2‰) at the base and top and peak values (+0.4 to +0.65‰) in the middle of the BS, is inconsistent with dominance of a global-ocean redox signal because (1) the middle of the BS was deposited at maximum eustatic highstand when euxinic conditions existed most widely within the LPMS and coeval epicontinental seas, and (2) more extensive euxinia should have shifted global-ocean seawater δ238U to lower values based on mass-balance principles. On the other hand, the observed δ238U pattern is consistent with a dominant local redox control, with larger U-isotope fractionations associated with more reducing bottom waters. We therefore conclude that U was not removed quantitatively to euxinic facies of the LPMS, and that sediment U-isotope compositions were controlled mainly by local redox and hydrographic factors. Our results imply that U-isotope signals from epicontinental-sea sections must be vetted carefully through analysis of high-resolution datasets at multiple sites in order to validate their potential use as a global-seawater redox proxy.

An assessment of the natural radioactivity distribution and radiation hazard in soil samples from Qatar using high-resolution gamma-ray spectrometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Sulaiti, Huda; Al Mugren, K. S.; Bradley, D. A.; Regan, P. H.; Santawamaitre, T.; Malain, D.; Habib, A.; Nasir, Tabassum; Alkhomashi, N.; Al-Dahan, N.; Al-Dosari, M.; Bukhari, S.

2017-11-01

We establish baseline measurements for radioactivity concentration in the soil samples collected from the Qatarian peninsula. The work focused on the naturally occurring and technically enhanced levels of radiation associated with 235,8U and 232Th natural decay chains and the long-lived naturally occurring radionuclide 40K in 129 soil samples collected across the landscape of the State of Qatar. Three radiological distribution maps showing the activity concentrations of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K were constructed. Two soil samples were found to be elevated to the favour of 226Ra concentration and significantly above the average and global values. Notably, these samples were collected from an area within an oil field (NW Dukhan). The mean values of activity concentrations of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K for the full cohort of samples were found to be 17.2±1.6, 6.38±0.26 and 169±5 Bq/kg, respectively. These values lie within the expected range relative to the world average values in soil samples of 30, 35 and 400 Bq/kg, respectively.

[Quantitative estimation of evapotranspiration from Tahe forest ecosystem, Northeast China].

PubMed

Qu, Di; Fan, Wen-Yi; Yang, Jin-Ming; Wang, Xu-Peng

2014-06-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important parameter of agriculture, meteorology and hydrology research, and also an important part of the global hydrological cycle. This paper applied the improved DHSVM distributed hydrological model to estimate daily ET of Tahe area in 2007 using leaf area index and other surface data extracted TM remote sensing data, and slope, aspect and other topographic indices obtained by using the digital elevation model. The relationship between daily ET and daily watershed outlet flow was built by the BP neural network, and a water balance equation was established for the studied watershed, together to test the accuracy of the estimation. The results showed that the model could be applied in the study area. The annual total ET of Tahe watershed was 234.01 mm. ET had a significant seasonal variation. The ET had the highest value in summer and the average daily ET value was 1.56 mm. The average daily ET in autumn and spring were 0.30, 0.29 mm, respectively, and winter had the lowest ET value. Land cover type had a great effect on ET value, and the broadleaf forest had a higher ET ability than the mixed forest, followed by the needle leaf forest.

Franchise medicine: how I avoid being a commodity in a global market.

PubMed

Constantinides, Minas

2010-02-01

As facial plastic surgery becomes more global, pressures for practices to become commoditized will increase. Commoditized practices are those in which price drives the quality of the product. Franchised surgical practices have also recently increased within the United States and abroad. These are always commoditized by their corporate philosophies. There are better ways to create value than to lower price to compete with a neighboring practice. By establishing a Transcendent Relationship of growth, both the surgeon and the patient are more satisfied with their facial plastic surgical experiences. Key tools helpful in predicting future directions for a practice, the Four Compass Points and the Average Best Patient, will be introduced. Thieme Medical Publishers.

Geoengineering by cloud seeding: influence on sea ice and climate system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rasch, Philip J.; Latham, John; Chen, Chih-Chieh

2009-12-18

GCM computations using a fully coupled ocean atmosphere model indicate that increasing cloud reflectivity by seeding maritime boundary layer clouds with particles made from seawater may compensate for some of the effects on climate of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The chosen seeding strategy (one of many possible scenarios) can restore global averages of temperature, precipitation and sea ice to present day values, but not simultaneously. The response varies nonlinearly with extent of the seeding, and geoengineering generates local changes to important climatic features. The global tradeoffs of restoring ice cover and cooling the planet must be assessed alongside the localmore » changes to climate features.« less

Natural variability of bio-optical properties in an ultra-oligotrophic region: backscattering, attenuation and absorption coefficients as observed in the Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kheireddine, M.; Jones, B. H.

2016-02-01

Until recently, satellite-derived ocean color observations have been the only means of evaluating optical variability of the Red Sea. The optical properties of the Red Sea have been empirically related to the chlorophyll concentration, [Chl], historically used as an index of the trophic state and of the abundance of the biological materials. The natural variability around the mean statistical relationships is here examined by comparing the optical properties as a function of [Chl] in different area of the Red Sea: the North Red Sea (NRS), the North Central Red Sea (NCRS) and the South Central Red Sea (SCRS) waters. The systematic deviations, with respect to the average laws provided for the global ocean, mainly result from the differing contents in non-algal particles, phytoplankton communities and dissolved colored substance for a given [Chl] level. These optical anomalies relate to the specific biological and environmental conditions occurring in the Red Sea ecosystem, showing the peculiar character of the Red Sea. Specifically, absorption's values of colored dissolved organic matter are lower than the values predicted from the global relationships, the surface specific phytoplankton absorption coefficients are lower than the values predicted from the global relationships due to a high proportion of relatively large sized phytoplankton. Conversely, bbp values are much higher than the mean standard values for a given [Chl] concentration. This presumably results from the influence of highly refractive submicrometer particles of Saharan or Arabian origin in the surface layer of the water column.

Cretaceous shales from the western interior of North America: sulfur/carbon ratios and sulfur-isotope composition.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gautier, D.L.

1986-01-01

Sulphur/carbon ratios in cores of selected Cretaceous marine shales average 0.67, a value greater than that observed in recent marine sediments and much higher than global values calculated for the Cretaceous. This may be ascribed to generally low levels of bioturbation and enhanced efficiency of sulphate reduction due to low oxygen levels in Cretaceous seaways. Isotopic compositions of pyrite sulphur vary systematically with level of oxygenation of the depositional environment and therefore with organic carbon abundance and type of organic matter. Samples with >4% organic carbon are extremely depleted in 34S (mean delta 34S -31per mille) and contain hydrogen-rich organic matter. Samples containing <1.5% organic carbon display relatively 'heavy' but wide-ranging delta 34S values (-34.6 to +16.8per mille) and contain hydrogen-poor organic matter. Samples with intermediate amounts of organic carbon have average delta 34S of -25.9per mille and contain both types of organic matter. Relations between the nature of these shales, and their sedimentation rate and depositional environment are discussed.-L.C.H.

The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation (CHIRP) with Stations (CHIRPS): Development and Validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, P.; Funk, C. C.; Husak, G. J.; Pedreros, D. H.; Landsfeld, M.; Verdin, J. P.; Shukla, S.

2013-12-01

CHIRP and CHIRPS are new quasi-global precipitation products with daily to seasonal time scales, a 0.05° resolution, and a 1981 to near real-time period of record. Developed by the Climate Hazards Group at UCSB and scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Center specifically for drought early warning and environmental monitoring, CHIRPS provides moderate latency precipitation estimates that place observed hydrologic extremes in their historic context. Three main types of information are used in the CHIRPS: (1) global 0.05° precipitation climatologies, (2) time-varying grids of satellite-based precipitation estimates, and (3) in situ precipitation observations. CHIRP: The global grids of long-term (1980-2009) average precipitation were estimated for each month based on station data, averaged satellite observations, and physiographic parameters. 1981-present time-varying grids of satellite precipitation were derived from spatially varying regression models based on pentadal cold cloud duration (CCD) values and TRMM V7 training data. The CCD time-series were derived from the CPC and NOAA B1 datasets. Pentadal CCD-percent anomaly values were multiplied by pentadal climatology fields to produce low bias pentadal precipitation estimates. CHIRPS: The CHG station blending procedure uses the satellite-observed spatial covariance structure to assign relative weights to neighboring stations and the CHIRP values. The CHIRPS blending procedure is based on the expected correlation between precipitation at a given target location and precipitation at the locations of the neighboring observation stations. These correlations are estimated using the CHIRP fields. The CHG has developed an extensive archive of in situ daily, pentadal and monthly precipitation totals. The CHG database has over half a billion daily rainfall observations since 1980 and another half billion before 1980. Most of these observations come from four sets of global climate observations: the monthly Global Historical Climate Network version 2 archive, the daily Global Historical Climate Network archive, the Global Summary of the Day dataset (GSOD), and the daily Global Telecommunication System (GTS) archive provided by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC). A screening procedure was developed to flag and remove potential false zeros from the daily data, since these potentially spurious data can artificially suppress rainfall totals. Validation: Our validation focused on precipitation products with global coverage, long periods of record and near real-time availability: CHIRP, CHIRPS, CPC-Unified, CFS Reanalysis and ECMWF datasets were compared to GPCC and high quality datasets from Uganda, Colombia and the Sahel. The CHIRP and CHIRPS are shown to have low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. Analyses in Uganda, Colombia and the Sahel indicate that the ECMWF, CPC-Unified and CFS-Reanalysis have large inhomogeneities, making them unsuitable for drought monitoring. The CHIRPS performance appears quite similar to research quality products like the GPCC and GPCP, but with higher resolution and lower latency.

Latitudinal and Longitudinal Basin-scale Surface Salinity Contrasts and Freshwater Transport by Ocean Thermohaline Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seidov, D.; Haupt, B. J.

2003-12-01

The role of sea surface salinity (SSS) contrasts in maintaining vigorous global ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) is revisited. Relative importance of different generalizations of sea surface conditions in climate studies is explored. In numerical experiments using an ocean general circulation model, we have aggregated the observed sea surface temperature (SST) and SSS in several different ways: we used observed unchanged SST with SSS taken as constant (34.25 psu) everywhere; SST unchanged, and SSS zonally averaged globally, i.e., in the whole World Ocean; SST averaged globally, and SSS unchanged; SST zonally averaged globally and SSS zonally averaged basin-wide in individual basins, i.e., in the Atlantic, Indian, Pacific, and Southern Oceans separately; and, finally, both SST and SSS zonally averaged in individual basins. Global zonal averaging removes all longitudinal differences in sea surface climatology among ocean basins. However, latitudinal profiles of zonally averaged parameters preserve the main character of large-scale equator-to-pole sea surface variability. Basin-wide zonal averaging does an even better job of preserving latitudinal distributions within each basin. The results of the experiments could hardly be anticipated a priory. Surprisingly, SST could be used as a 2-D field, or as a zonally-averaged field without much difference in the THC dynamics. Moreover, SST could be averaged either globally, or basin-wide, and it also did not change the overall character of THC. At the same time, THC responded vigorously to how the SSS has been changed. It appeared that the THC structure with the globally averaged SST and basin-wide averaged SSS was very close to the one obtained in the control run (control run operates with 2-D observed SST and SSS). Our main conclusion is that ocean-wide inter-basin sea surface salinity contrasts serve as the major controlling element in global thermohaline circulation. Thermal inter-basin contrasts, as well as longitudinal variation in SSS, are less important than latitudinal thermal gradients and inter-basin salinity contrasts. Details of SSS also decrease in importance as soon as its inter-basin contrasts are retained. This is especially important for paleoclimate and future climate simulations, as only the large-scale inter-basin contrasts of the sea surface conditions really matter.

Development of a new global radiation belt model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sicard, Angelica; Boscher, Daniel; Bourdarie, Sébastien; Lazaro, Didier; Maget, Vincent; Ecoffet, Robert; Rolland, Guy; Standarovski, Denis

2017-04-01

The well known AP8 and AE8 NASA models are commonly used in the industry to specify the radiation belt environment. Unfortunately, there are some limitations in the use of these models, first due to the covered energy range, but also because in some regions of space, there are discrepancies between the predicted average values and the measurements. Therefore, our aim is to develop a radiation belt model, covering a large region of space and energy, from LEO altitudes to GEO and above, and from plasma to relativistic particles. The aim for the first version of this new model is to correct the AP8 and AE8 models where they are deficient or not defined. At geostationary, we developed ten years ago for electrons the IGE-2006 model which was proven to be more accurate than AE8, and used commonly in the industry, covering a broad energy range, from 1keV to 5MeV. From then, a proton model for geostationary orbit was also developed for material applications, followed by the OZONE model covering a narrower energy range but the whole outer electron belt, a SLOT model to asses average electron values for 2

Large Scale Crop Classification in Ukraine using Multi-temporal Landsat-8 Images with Missing Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kussul, N.; Skakun, S.; Shelestov, A.; Lavreniuk, M. S.

2014-12-01

At present, there are no globally available Earth observation (EO) derived products on crop maps. This issue is being addressed within the Sentinel-2 for Agriculture initiative where a number of test sites (including from JECAM) participate to provide coherent protocols and best practices for various global agriculture systems, and subsequently crop maps from Sentinel-2. One of the problems in dealing with optical images for large territories (more than 10,000 sq. km) is the presence of clouds and shadows that result in having missing values in data sets. In this abstract, a new approach to classification of multi-temporal optical satellite imagery with missing data due to clouds and shadows is proposed. First, self-organizing Kohonen maps (SOMs) are used to restore missing pixel values in a time series of satellite imagery. SOMs are trained for each spectral band separately using non-missing values. Missing values are restored through a special procedure that substitutes input sample's missing components with neuron's weight coefficients. After missing data restoration, a supervised classification is performed for multi-temporal satellite images. For this, an ensemble of neural networks, in particular multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), is proposed. Ensembling of neural networks is done by the technique of average committee, i.e. to calculate the average class probability over classifiers and select the class with the highest average posterior probability for the given input sample. The proposed approach is applied for large scale crop classification using multi temporal Landsat-8 images for the JECAM test site in Ukraine [1-2]. It is shown that ensemble of MLPs provides better performance than a single neural network in terms of overall classification accuracy and kappa coefficient. The obtained classification map is also validated through estimated crop and forest areas and comparison to official statistics. 1. A.Yu. Shelestov et al., "Geospatial information system for agricultural monitoring," Cybernetics Syst. Anal., vol. 49, no. 1, pp. 124-132, 2013. 2. J. Gallego et al., "Efficiency Assessment of Different Approaches to Crop Classification Based on Satellite and Ground Observations," J. Autom. Inform. Scie., vol. 44, no. 5, pp. 67-80, 2012.

How well do we understand the Earth's radiation budget and the role of clouds? Selected results of the GEWEX radiation flux assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raschke, E.; Kinne, S.

2013-05-01

Multi-year average radiative flux maps of three satellite data-sets (CERES, ISSCP and GEWEX-SRB) are compared to each other and to typical values by global modeling (median values of results of 20 climate models of the 4th IPCC Assessment). Diversity assessments address radiative flux products and at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and the surface, with particular attention to impacts by clouds. Involving both data from surface and TOA special attention is given to the vertical radiation flux divergence and on the infrared Greenhouse effect, which are rarely shown in literature.

First Nuclear DNA Amounts in more than 300 Angiosperms

PubMed Central

ZONNEVELD, B. J. M.; LEITCH, I. J.; BENNETT, M. D.

2005-01-01

• Background and Aims Genome size (DNA C-value) data are key biodiversity characters of fundamental significance used in a wide variety of biological fields. Since 1976, Bennett and colleagues have made scattered published and unpublished genome size data more widely accessible by assembling them into user-friendly compilations. Initially these were published as hard copy lists, but since 1997 they have also been made available electronically (see the Plant DNA C-values database www.kew.org/cval/homepage.html). Nevertheless, at the Second Plant Genome Size Meeting in 2003, Bennett noted that as many as 1000 DNA C-value estimates were still unpublished and hence unavailable. Scientists were strongly encouraged to communicate such unpublished data. The present work combines the databasing experience of the Kew-based authors with the unpublished C-values produced by Zonneveld to make a large body of valuable genome size data available to the scientific community. • Methods C-values for angiosperm species, selected primarily for their horticultural interest, were estimated by flow cytometry using the fluorochrome propidium iodide. The data were compiled into a table whose form is similar to previously published lists of DNA amounts by Bennett and colleagues. • Key Results and Conclusions The present work contains C-values for 411 taxa including first values for 308 species not listed previously by Bennett and colleagues. Based on a recent estimate of the global published output of angiosperm DNA C-value data (i.e. 200 first C-value estimates per annum) the present work equals 1·5 years of average global published output; and constitutes over 12 % of the latest 5-year global target set by the Second Plant Genome Size Workshop (see www.kew.org/cval/workshopreport.html). Hopefully, the present example will encourage others to unveil further valuable data which otherwise may lie forever unpublished and unavailable for comparative analyses. PMID:15905300

Intra-event isotope and raindrop size data of tropical rain reveal effects concealed by event averaged data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Managave, S. R.; Jani, R. A.; Narayana Rao, T.; Sunilkumar, K.; Satheeshkumar, S.; Ramesh, R.

2016-08-01

Evaporation of rain is known to contribute water vapor, a potent greenhouse gas, to the atmosphere. Stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopic compositions (δ18O and, δD, respectively) of precipitation, usually measured/presented as values integrated over rain events or monthly mean values, are important tools for detecting evaporation effects. The slope ~8 of the linear relationship between such time-averaged values of δD and δ18O (called the meteoric water line) is widely accepted as a proof of condensation under isotopic equilibrium and absence of evaporation of rain during atmospheric fall. Here, through a simultaneous investigation of the isotopic and drop size distributions of seventeen rain events sampled on an intra-event scale at Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E), southern India, we demonstrate that the evaporation effects, not evident in the time-averaged data, are significantly manifested in the sub-samples of individual rain events. We detect this through (1) slopes significantly less than 8 for the δD-δ18O relation on intra-event scale and (2) significant positive correlations between deuterium excess ( d-excess = δD - 8*δ18O; lower values in rain indicate evaporation) and the mass-weighted mean diameter of the raindrops ( D m ). An estimated ~44 % of rain is influenced by evaporation. This study also reveals a signature of isotopic equilibration of rain with the cloud base vapor, the processes important for modeling isotopic composition of precipitation. d-excess values of rain are modified by the post-condensation processes and the present approach offers a way to identify the d-excess values least affected by such processes. Isotope-enabled global circulation models could be improved by incorporating intra-event isotopic data and raindrop size dependent isotopic effects.

Current Perspective in the International Trade of Medicinal Plants Material: An Update.

PubMed

Vasisht, Karan; Sharma, Neetika; Karan, Maninder

2016-01-01

The recent years have seen an increased interest in medicinal plants together with the therapeutic use of phytochemicals. Medicinal plants are utilized by the industry for the production of extracts, phytopharmaceuticals, nutraceuticals and cosmeceuticals and their use is expected to grow faster than the conventional drugs. The enormous demand of medicinal plant material has resulted in huge trade both at domestic and international levels. The trade data of medicinal plant material with commodity code HS 1211 (SITC.4, code 292.4) and their derived/related products which are traded under different commodity codes has been acquired from COMTRADE, Trade Map, country reports, technical documents etc for the period 2001 to 2014. The data was analyzed using statistical tools to draw conclusions. The significant features of the global trade; the leading source, consumer, import and export countries; and the striking trends are presented. The trade of the ten key countries and the selected important items is also discussed in detail. The conservative figure of trade of medicinal plants materials and their derived/related products including extracts, essential oils, phytopharmaceuticals, gums, spices used in medicine, tannins for pharmaceutical use, ingredients for cosmetics etc. as calculated from the global export data for the year 2014 is estimated at USD 33 billion. The average global export in medicinal plants under HS 1211 for the fourteen year period was USD 1.92 billion for 601,357 tons per annum and for the year 2014 it stood at 702,813 tons valued at USD 3.60 billion. For the studied period, an annual average growth rate (AAGR) of 2.4% in volumes and 9.2% in values of export was observed. Nearly 30% of the global trade is made up by top two countries of the import and export. China and India from Asia; Egypt and Morocco from Africa; Poland, Bulgaria and Albania from Europe; Chile and Peru from South America are important supply sources. The USA, Japan and Europe are the major consumers of the world.

Changes of global terrestrial carbon budget and major drivers in recent 30 years simulated using the remote sensing driven BEPS model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ju, W.; Chen, J.; Liu, R.; Liu, Y.

2013-12-01

The process-based Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) model was employed in conjunction with spatially distributed leaf area index (LAI), land cover, soil, and climate data to simulate the carbon budget of global terrestrial ecosystems during the period from 1981 to 2008. The BEPS model was first calibrated and validated using gross primary productivity (GPP), net primary productivity (NPP), and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) measured in different ecosystems across the word. Then, four global simulations were conducted at daily time steps and a spatial resolution of 8 km to quantify the global terrestrial carbon budget and to identify the relative contributions of changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and LAI to the global terrestrial carbon sink. The long term LAI data used to drive the model was generated through fusing Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and historical Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data pixel by pixel. The meteorological fields were interpolated from the 0.5° global daily meteorological dataset produced by the land surface hydrological research group at Princeton University. The results show that the BEPS model was able to simulate carbon fluxes in different ecosystems. Simulated GPP, NPP, and NEP values and their temporal trends exhibited distinguishable spatial patterns. During the period from 1981 to 2008, global terrestrial ecosystems acted as a carbon sink. The averaged global totals of GPP NPP, and NEP were 122.70 Pg C yr-1, 56.89 Pg C yr-1, and 2.76 Pg C yr-1, respectively. The global totals of GPP and NPP increased greatly, at rates of 0.43 Pg C yr-2 (R2=0.728) and 0.26 Pg C yr-2 (R2=0.709), respectively. Global total NEP did not show an apparent increasing trend (R2= 0.036), averaged 2.26 Pg C yr-1, 3.21 Pg C yr-1, and 2.72 Pg C yr-1 for the periods from 1981 to 1989, from 1990 to 1999, and from 2000 to 2008, respectively. The magnitude and temporal trend of global terrestrial carbon budget were similar to the values recently reported by the Global Carbon Project. The obvious increases in global GPP and NPP were mainly driven by the enhancement of atmospheric CO2 fertilization. The change of LAI played the secondary role. Climate had a small negative impact on global terrestrial carbon sequestration. The relative importance of changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and LAI in altering the temporal trend of carbon sequestration differed spatially. During the period from 2000 to 2008, terrestrial carbon sinks mainly existed in the northern region of South America, the western region of middle Africa, Southeast Asia, Southeast China, Southeast United States, and some regions of Eurasia.

The effect of sugar and processed food imports on the prevalence of overweight and obesity in 172 countries.

PubMed

Lin, Tracy Kuo; Teymourian, Yasmin; Tursini, Maitri Shila

2018-04-14

Studies find that economic, political, and social globalization - as well as trade liberalization specifically - influence the prevalence of overweight and obesity in countries through increasing the availability and affordability of unhealthful food. However, what are the mechanisms that connect globalization, trade liberalization, and rising average body mass index (BMI)? We suggest that the various sub-components of globalization interact, leading individuals in countries that experience higher levels of globalization to prefer, import, and consume more imported sugar and processed food products than individuals in countries that experience lower levels of globalization. This study codes the amount of sugar and processed food imports in 172 countries from 1995 to 2010 using the United Nations Comtrade dataset. We employ country-specific fixed effects (FE) models, with robust standard errors, to examine the relationship between sugar and processed foods imports, globalization, and average BMI. To highlight further the relationship between the sugar and processed food import and average BMI, we employ a synthetic control method to calculate a counterfactual average BMI in Fiji. We find that sugar and processed food imports are part of the explanation to increasing average BMI in countries; after controlling for globalization and general imports and exports, sugar and processed food imports have a statistically and substantively significant effect in increasing average BMI. In the case of Fiji, the increased prevalence of obesity is associated with trade agreements and increased imports of sugar and processed food. The counterfactual estimates suggest that sugar and processed food imports are associated with a 0.5 increase in average BMI in Fiji.

A Global Meta-Analysis of the Value of Ecosystem Services Provided by Lakes.

PubMed

Reynaud, Arnaud; Lanzanova, Denis

2017-07-01

This study presents the first meta-analysis on the economic value of ecosystem services delivered by lakes. A worldwide data set of 699 observations drawn from 133 studies combines information reported in primary studies with geospatial data. The meta-analysis explores antagonisms and synergies between ecosystem services. This is the first meta-analysis to incorporate simultaneously external geospatial data and ecosystem service interactions. We first show that it is possible to reliably predict the value of ecosystem services provided by lakes based on their physical and geographic characteristics. Second, we demonstrate that interactions between ecosystem services appear to be significant for explaining lake ecosystem service values. Third, we provide an estimation of the average value of ecosystem services provided by lakes: between 106 and 140 USD$2010 per respondent per year for non-hedonic price studies and between 169 and 403 USD$2010 per property per year for hedonic price studies.

Ruminant methane delta(/sup 13/C//sup 12/C) values: relation to atmospheric methane

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rust, F.

1981-03-06

The delta(/sup 13/C//sup 12/C) - values of methane produced by fistulated steers, dairy cattle, and wethers, and dairy and beef cattle herds show a bimodal distribution that appears to be correlated with the plant type (C/sub 3/ or C/sub 4/, that is, producing either a three- or a four-carbon acid in the first step of photosynthesis) consumed by the animals. These results indicate that cattle and sheep, on a global basis, release methane with an average delta(/sup 13/C//sup 12/C) value of -60 and -63 per mil, respectively. Together they are a source of atmospheric methane whose delta(/sup 13/C//sup 12/C) ismore » similar to published values for marsh gas and cannot explain the 20 per mil higher values for atmospheric methane.« less

Automated drug dispensing systems in the intensive care unit: a financial analysis.

PubMed

Chapuis, Claire; Bedouch, Pierrick; Detavernier, Maxime; Durand, Michel; Francony, Gilles; Lavagne, Pierre; Foroni, Luc; Albaladejo, Pierre; Allenet, Benoit; Payen, Jean-Francois

2015-09-09

To evaluate the economic impact of automated-drug dispensing systems (ADS) in surgical intensive care units (ICUs). A financial analysis was conducted in three adult ICUs of one university hospital, where ADS were implemented, one in each unit, to replace the traditional floor stock system. Costs were estimated before and after implementation of the ADS on the basis of floor stock inventories, expired drugs, and time spent by nurses and pharmacy technicians on medication-related work activities. A financial analysis was conducted that included operating cash flows, investment cash flows, global cash flow and net present value. After ADS implementation, nurses spent less time on medication-related activities with an average of 14.7 hours saved per day/33 beds. Pharmacy technicians spent more time on floor-stock activities with an average of 3.5 additional hours per day across the three ICUs. The cost of drug storage was reduced by €44,298 and the cost of expired drugs was reduced by €14,772 per year across the three ICUs. Five years after the initial investment, the global cash flow was €148,229 and the net present value of the project was positive by €510,404. The financial modeling of the ADS implementation in three ICUs showed a high return on investment for the hospital. Medication-related costs and nursing time dedicated to medications are reduced with ADS.

Largest global shark biomass found in the northern Galápagos Islands of Darwin and Wolf

PubMed Central

Acuña-Marrero, David; Rastoin, Etienne; Friedlander, Alan M.; Donovan, Mary K.; Sala, Enric

2016-01-01

Overfishing has dramatically depleted sharks and other large predatory fishes worldwide except for a few remote and/or well-protected areas. The islands of Darwin and Wolf in the far north of the Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR) are known for their large shark abundance, making them a global scuba diving and conservation hotspot. Here we report quantitative estimates of fish abundance at Darwin and Wolf over two consecutive years using stereo-video surveys, which reveal the largest reef fish biomass ever reported (17.5 t \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document} }{}${\\mathrm{ha}}^{-1}$\\end{document}ha−1 on average), consisting largely of sharks. Despite this, the abundance of reef fishes around the GMR, such as groupers, has been severely reduced because of unsustainable fishing practices. Although Darwin and Wolf are within the GMR, they were not fully protected from fishing until March 2016. Given the ecological value and the economic importance of Darwin and Wolf for the dive tourism industry, the current protection should ensure the long-term conservation of this hotspot of unique global value. PMID:27190701

An improved empirical dynamic control system model of global mean sea level rise and surface temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qing; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tkalich, Pavel; Chen, Ge

2018-04-01

Having great impacts on human lives, global warming and associated sea level rise are believed to be strongly linked to anthropogenic causes. Statistical approach offers a simple and yet conceptually verifiable combination of remotely connected climate variables and indices, including sea level and surface temperature. We propose an improved statistical reconstruction model based on the empirical dynamic control system by taking into account the climate variability and deriving parameters from Monte Carlo cross-validation random experiments. For the historic data from 1880 to 2001, we yielded higher correlation results compared to those from other dynamic empirical models. The averaged root mean square errors are reduced in both reconstructed fields, namely, the global mean surface temperature (by 24-37%) and the global mean sea level (by 5-25%). Our model is also more robust as it notably diminished the unstable problem associated with varying initial values. Such results suggest that the model not only enhances significantly the global mean reconstructions of temperature and sea level but also may have a potential to improve future projections.

Application of the gravity search algorithm to multi-reservoir operation optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bozorg-Haddad, Omid; Janbaz, Mahdieh; Loáiciga, Hugo A.

2016-12-01

Complexities in river discharge, variable rainfall regime, and drought severity merit the use of advanced optimization tools in multi-reservoir operation. The gravity search algorithm (GSA) is an evolutionary optimization algorithm based on the law of gravity and mass interactions. This paper explores the GSA's efficacy for solving benchmark functions, single reservoir, and four-reservoir operation optimization problems. The GSA's solutions are compared with those of the well-known genetic algorithm (GA) in three optimization problems. The results show that the GSA's results are closer to the optimal solutions than the GA's results in minimizing the benchmark functions. The average values of the objective function equal 1.218 and 1.746 with the GSA and GA, respectively, in solving the single-reservoir hydropower operation problem. The global solution equals 1.213 for this same problem. The GSA converged to 99.97% of the global solution in its average-performing history, while the GA converged to 97% of the global solution of the four-reservoir problem. Requiring fewer parameters for algorithmic implementation and reaching the optimal solution in fewer number of functional evaluations are additional advantages of the GSA over the GA. The results of the three optimization problems demonstrate a superior performance of the GSA for optimizing general mathematical problems and the operation of reservoir systems.

Variability of Marine Aerosol Fine-Mode Fraction and Estimates of Anthropogenic Aerosol Component Over Cloud-Free Oceans from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yu, Hongbin; Chin, Mian; Remer, Lorraine A.; Kleidman, Richard G.; Bellouin, Nicolas; Bian, Huisheng; Diehl, Thomas

2009-01-01

In this study, we examine seasonal and geographical variability of marine aerosol fine-mode fraction (f(sub m)) and its impacts on deriving the anthropogenic component of aerosol optical depth (tau(sub a)) and direct radiative forcing from multispectral satellite measurements. A proxy of f(sub m), empirically derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 5 data, shows large seasonal and geographical variations that are consistent with the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation Transport (GOCART) and Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) model simulations. The so-derived seasonally and spatially varying f(sub m) is then implemented into a method of estimating tau(sub a) and direct radiative forcing from the MODIS measurements. It is found that the use of a constant value for fm as in previous studies would have overestimated Ta by about 20% over global ocean, with the overestimation up to 45% in some regions and seasons. The 7-year (2001-2007) global ocean average tau(sub a) is 0.035, with yearly average ranging from 0.031 to 0.039. Future improvement in measurements is needed to better separate anthropogenic aerosol from natural ones and to narrow down the wide range of aerosol direct radiative forcing.

Imperfect coupling between northern and southern ionospheres: asymmetry in TEC anomalies before earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jhuang, Hau-Kun; Ho, Yi-Ying; Lee, Lou-Chuang

2016-04-01

The northern ionosphere is coupled to the conjugate southern ionosphere through the highly conducting geomagenetic field lines. The coupling is very strong or "perfect" if the geomagnetic field lines are equipotential (the parallel electric field E||=0) and hence the perpendicular electric field (E⊥) at the conjugate sites of both ionospheres are equal. The coupling is "imperfect" if some of the geomagnetic field lines are non-equipotential (E||≠0). The field-aligned electric field E|| can be associated with electron inertia, pressure gradient and collisions appearing in the form of double layer, kinetic Alfvén waves and finite field-aligned conductivity σ||. We use the Global Ionospheric Maps (GIM) data to examine the conjugate effect of total electron content (TEC) for six significant earthquakes. The anomalous (ΔTEC)source in the source ionosphere and (ΔTEC)conjugate in the conjugate ionosphere are obtained for 85 events before the six earthquakes. The ΔTEC ratio β = (ΔTEC)conjugate / (ΔTEC)source is calculated for each anomaly. For a "perfect" coupling, β=1. There are 85 anomalous events before the six significant earthquakes, with 62 events occurring in the daytime (07-18 LT) and 23 events in the nighttime (19-06 LT). The average value of daytime (07-18 LT) TEC variations in the source ionosphere is |ΔTEC|source =20.13 TECu, while the average value in the nighttime (19-06 LT) ionosphere is |ΔTEC|source=14.43 TECu. The value of ΔTEC ratio β ranges from 0.05 (very weak coupling) to 0.98 (nearly perfect coupling) with an average of 0.52. There are 14 strong coupling cases with β ≥0.8, which take place from 11 LT to 19 LT. The daytime (07-18 LT) β average value is 0.57 and the nighttime (19-06 LT) β average is 0.37. The south-north ionosphere coupling is stronger (weaker) in the daytime (nighttime).

The fully actuated traffic control problem solved by global optimization and complementarity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro, Isabel M.; de Lurdes de Oliveira Simões, Maria

2016-02-01

Global optimization and complementarity are used to determine the signal timing for fully actuated traffic control, regarding effective green and red times on each cycle. The average values of these parameters can be used to estimate the control delay of vehicles. In this article, a two-phase queuing system for a signalized intersection is outlined, based on the principle of minimization of the total waiting time for the vehicles. The underlying model results in a linear program with linear complementarity constraints, solved by a sequential complementarity algorithm. Departure rates of vehicles during green and yellow periods were treated as deterministic, while arrival rates of vehicles were assumed to follow a Poisson distribution. Several traffic scenarios were created and solved. The numerical results reveal that it is possible to use global optimization and complementarity over a reasonable number of cycles and determine with efficiency effective green and red times for a signalized intersection.

Constraints on Transient Viscoelastic Rheology of the Asthenosphere From Seasonal Deformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chanard, Kristel; Fleitout, Luce; Calais, Eric; Barbot, Sylvain; Avouac, Jean-Philippe

2018-03-01

We discuss the constraints on short-term asthenospheric viscosity provided by seasonal deformation of the Earth. We use data from 195 globally distributed continuous Global Navigation Satellite System stations. Surface loading is derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and used as an input to predict geodetic displacements. We compute Green's functions for surface displacements for a purely elastic spherical reference Earth model and for viscoelastic Earth models. We show that a range of transient viscoelastic rheologies derived to explain the early phase of postseismic deformation may induce a detectable effect on the phase and amplitude of horizontal displacements induced by seasonal loading at long wavelengths (1,300-4,000 km). By comparing predicted and observed seasonal horizontal motion, we conclude that transient asthenospheric viscosity cannot be lower than 5 × 1017 Pa.s, suggesting that low values of transient asthenospheric viscosities reported in some postseismic studies cannot hold for the seasonal deformation global average.

A satellite snow depth multi-year average derived from SSM/I for the high latitude regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Biancamaria, S.; Mognard, N.M.; Boone, A.; Grippa, M.; Josberger, E.G.

2008-01-01

The hydrological cycle for high latitude regions is inherently linked with the seasonal snowpack. Thus, accurately monitoring the snow depth and the associated aerial coverage are critical issues for monitoring the global climate system. Passive microwave satellite measurements provide an optimal means to monitor the snowpack over the arctic region. While the temporal evolution of snow extent can be observed globally from microwave radiometers, the determination of the corresponding snow depth is more difficult. A dynamic algorithm that accounts for the dependence of the microwave scattering on the snow grain size has been developed to estimate snow depth from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) brightness temperatures and was validated over the U.S. Great Plains and Western Siberia. The purpose of this study is to assess the dynamic algorithm performance over the entire high latitude (land) region by computing a snow depth multi-year field for the time period 1987-1995. This multi-year average is compared to the Global Soil Wetness Project-Phase2 (GSWP2) snow depth computed from several state-of-the-art land surface schemes and averaged over the same time period. The multi-year average obtained by the dynamic algorithm is in good agreement with the GSWP2 snow depth field (the correlation coefficient for January is 0.55). The static algorithm, which assumes a constant snow grain size in space and time does not correlate with the GSWP2 snow depth field (the correlation coefficient with GSWP2 data for January is - 0.03), but exhibits a very high anti-correlation with the NCEP average January air temperature field (correlation coefficient - 0.77), the deepest satellite snow pack being located in the coldest regions, where the snow grain size may be significantly larger than the average value used in the static algorithm. The dynamic algorithm performs better over Eurasia (with a correlation coefficient with GSWP2 snow depth equal to 0.65) than over North America (where the correlation coefficient decreases to 0.29). ?? 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multidecadal climate variability of global lands and oceans

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Palecki, M.A.

2006-01-01

Principal components analysis (PCA) and singular value decomposition (SVD) are used to identify the primary modes of decadal and multidecadal variability in annual global Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) values and sea-surface temperature (SSTs). The PDSI and SST data for 1925-2003 were detrended and smoothed (with a 10-year moving average) to isolate the decadal and multidecadal variability. The first two principal components (PCs) of the PDSI PCA explained almost 38% of the decadal and multidecadal variance in the detrended and smoothed global annual PDSI data. The first two PCs of detrended and smoothed global annual SSTs explained nearly 56% of the decadal variability in global SSTs. The PDSI PCs and the SST PCs are directly correlated in a pairwise fashion. The first PDSI and SST PCs reflect variability of the detrended and smoothed annual Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as well as detrended and smoothed annual Indian Ocean SSTs. The second set of PCs is strongly associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The SVD analysis of the cross-covariance of the PDSI and SST data confirmed the close link between the PDSI and SST modes of decadal and multidecadal variation and provided a verification of the PCA results. These findings indicate that the major modes of multidecadal variations in SSTs and land-surface climate conditions are highly interrelated through a small number of spatially complex but slowly varying teleconnections. Therefore, these relations may be adaptable to providing improved baseline conditions for seasonal climate forecasting. Published in 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Global Precipitation at One-Degree Daily Resolution From Multi-Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Morrissey, Mark M.; Curtis, Scott; Joyce, Robert; McGavock, Brad; Susskind, Joel

2000-01-01

The One-Degree Daily (1DD) technique is described for producing globally complete daily estimates of precipitation on a 1 deg x 1 deg lat/long grid from currently available observational data. Where possible (40 deg N-40 deg S), the Threshold-Matched Precipitation Index (TMPI) provides precipitation estimates in which the 3-hourly infrared brightness temperatures (IR T(sub b)) are thresholded and all "cold" pixels are given a single precipitation rate. This approach is an adaptation of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Precipitation Index (GPI), but for the TMPI the IR Tb threshold and conditional rain rate are set locally by month from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I)-based precipitation frequency and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite-gauge (SG) combined monthly precipitation estimate, respectively. At higher latitudes the 1DD features a rescaled daily Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) precipitation. The frequency of rain days in the TOVS is scaled down to match that in the TMPI at the data boundaries, and the resulting non-zero TOVS values are scaled locally to sum to the SG (which is a globally complete monthly product). The time series of the daily 1DD global images shows good continuity in time and across the data boundaries. Various examples are shown to illustrate uses. Validation for individual grid -box values shows a very high root-mean-square error but, it improves quickly when users perform time/space averaging according to their own requirements.

Comparison of Globally Complete Versions of GPCP and CMAP Monthly Precipitation Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert; Huffman, George

1998-01-01

In this study two global observational precipitation products, namely the Global Precipitation Climatology Project's (GPCP) community data set and CPC's Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), are compared on global to regional scales in the context of the different satellite and gauge data inputs and merger techniques. The average annual global precipitation rates, calculated from data common in regions/times to both GPCP and CMAP, are similar for the two. However, CMAP is larger than GPCP in the tropics because: (1) CMAP values in the tropics are adjusted month-by month to atoll gauge data in the West Pacific, which are greater than any satellite observations used; and (2) CMAP is produced from a linear combination of data inputs, which tends to give higher values than the microwave emission estimates alone to which the inputs are adjusted in the GPCP merger over the ocean. The CMAP month-to-month adjustment to the atolls also appears to introduce temporal variations throughout the tropics which are not detected by satellite-only products. On the other hand, GPCP is larger than CMAP in the high-latitude oceans, where CMAP includes the scattering based microwave estimates which are consistently smaller than the emission estimates used in both techniques. Also, in the polar regions GPCP transitions from the emission microwave estimates to the larger TOVS-based estimates. Finally, in high-latitude land areas GPCP can be significantly larger than CMAP because GPCP attempts to correct the gauge estimates for errors due to wind loss effects.

Pulmonary Nodule Recognition Based on Multiple Kernel Learning Support Vector Machine-PSO

PubMed Central

Zhu, Zhichuan; Zhao, Qingdong; Liu, Liwei; Zhang, Lijuan

2018-01-01

Pulmonary nodule recognition is the core module of lung CAD. The Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm has been widely used in pulmonary nodule recognition, and the algorithm of Multiple Kernel Learning Support Vector Machine (MKL-SVM) has achieved good results therein. Based on grid search, however, the MKL-SVM algorithm needs long optimization time in course of parameter optimization; also its identification accuracy depends on the fineness of grid. In the paper, swarm intelligence is introduced and the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is combined with MKL-SVM algorithm to be MKL-SVM-PSO algorithm so as to realize global optimization of parameters rapidly. In order to obtain the global optimal solution, different inertia weights such as constant inertia weight, linear inertia weight, and nonlinear inertia weight are applied to pulmonary nodules recognition. The experimental results show that the model training time of the proposed MKL-SVM-PSO algorithm is only 1/7 of the training time of the MKL-SVM grid search algorithm, achieving better recognition effect. Moreover, Euclidean norm of normalized error vector is proposed to measure the proximity between the average fitness curve and the optimal fitness curve after convergence. Through statistical analysis of the average of 20 times operation results with different inertial weights, it can be seen that the dynamic inertial weight is superior to the constant inertia weight in the MKL-SVM-PSO algorithm. In the dynamic inertial weight algorithm, the parameter optimization time of nonlinear inertia weight is shorter; the average fitness value after convergence is much closer to the optimal fitness value, which is better than the linear inertial weight. Besides, a better nonlinear inertial weight is verified. PMID:29853983

Pulmonary Nodule Recognition Based on Multiple Kernel Learning Support Vector Machine-PSO.

PubMed

Li, Yang; Zhu, Zhichuan; Hou, Alin; Zhao, Qingdong; Liu, Liwei; Zhang, Lijuan

2018-01-01

Pulmonary nodule recognition is the core module of lung CAD. The Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm has been widely used in pulmonary nodule recognition, and the algorithm of Multiple Kernel Learning Support Vector Machine (MKL-SVM) has achieved good results therein. Based on grid search, however, the MKL-SVM algorithm needs long optimization time in course of parameter optimization; also its identification accuracy depends on the fineness of grid. In the paper, swarm intelligence is introduced and the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is combined with MKL-SVM algorithm to be MKL-SVM-PSO algorithm so as to realize global optimization of parameters rapidly. In order to obtain the global optimal solution, different inertia weights such as constant inertia weight, linear inertia weight, and nonlinear inertia weight are applied to pulmonary nodules recognition. The experimental results show that the model training time of the proposed MKL-SVM-PSO algorithm is only 1/7 of the training time of the MKL-SVM grid search algorithm, achieving better recognition effect. Moreover, Euclidean norm of normalized error vector is proposed to measure the proximity between the average fitness curve and the optimal fitness curve after convergence. Through statistical analysis of the average of 20 times operation results with different inertial weights, it can be seen that the dynamic inertial weight is superior to the constant inertia weight in the MKL-SVM-PSO algorithm. In the dynamic inertial weight algorithm, the parameter optimization time of nonlinear inertia weight is shorter; the average fitness value after convergence is much closer to the optimal fitness value, which is better than the linear inertial weight. Besides, a better nonlinear inertial weight is verified.

Estimating the Mean Annual Surface Air Temperature at Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, and the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for Sunspot Cycle 24, the Current Ongoing Sunspot Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2013-01-01

As noted by Gray et al., Sir William Herschel was the first to suggest a possible close connection between the Sun and the Earth’s climate. The Sun, being the source of energy that impacts and drives the Earth’s climate system, displays a variety of changes over both short and long term time scales, the most obvious examples being the somewhat regular waxing and waning of sunspots with time (i.e., the sunspot cycle (SC)), first described by Samuel Heinrich Schwabe, a German apothecary and amateur astronomer who observed the Sun from Dessau, Germany, and the now well established variation of the Sun’s irradiance over the SC. Other factors related to the SC have been linked to changes in climate as well. Some of these other factors include the role of cosmic rays and the solar wind (i.e., the geomagnetic cycle) on climate, as well as the apparent close association between trends in global and northern hemispheric temperature and the length of the SC, although some investigators have described the inferred association between climate and, in particular, SC length as now being weak. More recently, Solheim et al. have reported on the relation between SC length and the average temperature in the same and immediately following SC for a number of meteorological stations in Norway and in the North Atlantic region. They noted that while they found no significant trend (correlation) between SC length and the average temperature when measured for the same cycle, in contrast, they found a significant negative trend when SC length was compared with the following cycle’s average temperature. From this observation, they suggested that average northern hemispheric temperature during the present ongoing SC (SC24) will be lower by about 0.9 °C than was seen in SC23 (spanning 1996–2007, based on yearly averages of sunspot number (SSN), and onset for SC24 occurring in 2008). The purpose of this Technical Publication (TP) is to examine the annual variations of the Armagh surface air temperature (ASAT) and the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GLOTI) in relation to SSN and the SC in order to determine their likely values during SC24. Hence, it may provide insight as to whether solar forcing of global temperature is now lessening as a contributor to global warming, thereby indicating a possible cooling in the near term immediate future that potentially could ameliorate the effect of increased anthropogenic warming.

Scaling of confinement and profiles in the EXTRAP T2 reversed-field pinch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welander, A.

1999-01-01

In the EXTRAP T2 reversed-field pinch the diagnostic techniques for the measurement of electron density and temperature include; Thomson scattering which gives values at three radial positions in the core (r/a = 0, 0.28, 0.56), Langmuir probes which give values at the edge (r/a > 0.9) and interferometry which gives a line-averaged density. The empirical scaling of electron density and temperature including profile information with global plasma parameters has been studied. The density profile is subject to large variations, with an average parabolic shape when the density is low and flatter shapes when the density is increased. The change in the profile shape can be attributed to a shift in the penetration length of neutrals from the vicinity of the wall. The temperature scales roughly as I/n1/2 where I is the plasma current and n is the density. The temperature profile is always quite flat with lower variations and there is a tendency for a flatter profile at higher temperatures.

Applications of Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2005) Supporting Mission Site Selection for Mars Science Laboratory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justh, Hilary L.; Justus, Carl G.

2008-01-01

The Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2005) is an engineering level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. An overview is presented of Mars-GRAM 2005 and its new features. One new feature of Mars-GRAM 2005 is the 'auxiliary profile' option. In this option, an input file of temperature and density versus altitude is used to replace mean atmospheric values from Mars-GRAM's conventional (General Circulation Model) climatology. An auxiliary profile can be generated from any source of data or alternate model output. Auxiliary profiles for this study were produced from mesoscale model output (Southwest Research Institute's Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS) model and Oregon State University's Mars mesoscale model (MMM5)model) and a global Thermal Emission Spectrometer(TES) database. The global TES database has been specifically generated for purposes of making Mars-GRAM auxiliary profiles. This data base contains averages and standard deviations of temperature, density, and thermal wind components,averaged over 5-by-5 degree latitude-longitude bins and 15 degree L(s) bins, for each of three Mars years of TES nadir data. Results are presented using auxiliary profiles produced from the mesoscale model output and TES observed data for candidate Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) landing sites. Input parameters rpscale (for density perturbations) and rwscale (for wind perturbations) can be used to "recalibrate" Mars-GRAM perturbation magnitudes to better replicate observed or mesoscale model variability.

Extraction of global 21-cm signal from simulated data for the Dark Ages Radio Explorer (DARE) using an MCMC pipeline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tauscher, Keith A.; Burns, Jack O.; Rapetti, David; Mirocha, Jordan; Monsalve, Raul A.

2017-01-01

The Dark Ages Radio Explorer (DARE) is a mission concept proposed to NASA in which a crossed dipole antenna collects low frequency (40-120 MHz) radio measurements above the farside of the Moon to detect and characterize the global 21-cm signal from the early (z~35-11) Universe's neutral hydrogen. Simulated data for DARE includes: 1) the global signal modeled using the ares code, 2) spectrally smooth Galactic foregrounds with spatial structure taken from multiple radio foreground maps averaged over a large, well characterized beam, 3) systematics introduced in the data by antenna/receiver reflections, and 4) the Moon. This simulated data is fed into a signal extraction pipeline. As the signal is 4-5 orders of magnitude below the Galactic synchrotron contribution, it is best extracted from the data using Bayesian techniques which take full advantage of prior knowledge of the instrument and foregrounds. For the DARE pipeline, we use the affine-invariant MCMC algorithm implemented in the Python package, emcee. The pipeline also employs singular value decomposition to use known spectral features of the antenna and receiver to form a natural basis with which to fit instrumental systematics. Taking advantage of high-fidelity measurements of the antenna beam (to ~20 ppm) and precise calibration of the instrument, the pipeline extracts the global 21-cm signal with an average RMS error of 10-15 mK for multiple signal models.

Contribution of domestic production records, Interbull estimated breeding values, and single nucleotide polymorphism genetic markers to the single-step genomic evaluation of milk production.

PubMed

Přibyl, J; Madsen, P; Bauer, J; Přibylová, J; Simečková, M; Vostrý, L; Zavadilová, L

2013-03-01

Estimated breeding values (EBV) for first-lactation milk production of Holstein cattle in the Czech Republic were calculated using a conventional animal model and by single-step prediction of the genomic enhanced breeding value. Two overlapping data sets of milk production data were evaluated: (1) calving years 1991 to 2006, with 861,429 lactations and 1,918,901 animals in the pedigree and (2) calving years 1991 to 2010, with 1,097,319 lactations and 1,906,576 animals in the pedigree. Global Interbull (Uppsala, Sweden) deregressed proofs of 114,189 bulls were used in the analyses. Reliabilities of Interbull values were equivalent to an average of 8.53 effective records, which were used in a weighted analysis. A total of 1,341 bulls were genotyped using the Illumina BovineSNP50 BeadChip V2 (Illumina Inc., San Diego, CA). Among the genotyped bulls were 332 young bulls with no daughters in the first data set but more than 50 daughters (88.41, on average) with performance records in the second data set. For young bulls, correlations of EBV and genomic enhanced breeding value before and after progeny testing, corresponding average expected reliabilities, and effective daughter contributions (EDC) were calculated. The reliability of prediction pedigree EBV of young bulls was 0.41, corresponding to EDC=10.6. Including Interbull deregressed proofs improved the reliability of prediction by EDC=13.4 and including genotyping improved prediction reliability by EDC=6.2. Total average expected reliability of prediction reached 0.67, corresponding to EDC=30.2. The combination of domestic and Interbull sources for both genotyped and nongenotyped animals is valuable for improving the accuracy of genetic prediction in small populations of dairy cattle. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Water productivity mapping using Landsat 8 satellite together with weather stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franco, Renato A. M.; Hernandez, Fernando B. T.; de C. Teixeira, Antônio H.; Leivas, Janice Freitas; Coaguila, Daniel Noe; Neale, Christopher M.

2016-10-01

The use of remote sensing satellite in conjunction with models and meteorological data enable the mapping of biophysical properties of agroecosystems with satisfactory accuracy. The main goal of this research was to determine the spatial-temporal agro-ecological indicators of water productivity in watersheds with different types of land use and occupation, using Landsat 8 images, agro-meteorological stations and application of Monteith and SAFER (Simple Algorithm for Retrieving Evapotranspiration) models to estimate the production biomass (BIO) and the actual evapotranspiration (ET), respectively. Incident global solar radiation (RS ↓) is observed seasonality of radiation during the year. Higher RS ↓levels happen during the first and the last four months, when the Sun is around its zenith positions in the study region. During the natural dry period in the region, the RS↓ is lower because winter solstice time for the Southern Hemisphere, this condition it is verified the reducing in the values of ET and BIO. Average values of biophysical properties for the study period were 0.54, 0.16 and 301 K for Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, albedo and surface temperature, respectively. The highest value of BIO was 105 kg ha-1d-1 and occurred in July 2013. The lowest value was 15.9 kg ha-1d-1 and occurred in October 2014. ET showed a value of 1.65 mm d-1 in the rainy period and 0.64 during the dry period in the study area. The highest average ET occurred in the irrigated area (June 2014), with a value of 1.89 mm d-1 and a maximum of 2.46 mm d-1. WP average for the evaluated period was 3.06 Kg m-3, with the largest value of 4.91 Kg m-3 in June 2013 and a minimum value of 2.45 Kg m-3 in September 2013.

Spatiotemporal variations in the b-value of earthquake magnitude-frequency distributions: Classification and causes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Isa, Z. H.; Eaton, David W.

2014-03-01

Interpretation of the b-value of earthquake frequency-magnitude distributions has received considerable attention in recent decades. This paper provides a comprehensive review of previous investigations of spatial and temporal variations in b-value, including their classification and possible causes. Based on least-squares regression of seismicity data compiled from the NEIC, IRIS and ISC catalogs, we find an average value of 1.02 ± 0.03 for the whole Earth and its two hemispheres, consistent with the general view that in seismically active regions the long-term average value is close to unity. Nevertheless, wide-ranging b-variations (0.3 ≤ b ≤ 2.5) have been reported in the literature. This variability has been interpreted to arise from one or more of the following factors: prevailing stress state, crustal heterogeneity, focal depth, pore pressure, geothermal gradient, tectonic setting, petrological/environmental/geophysical characteristics, clustering of events, incomplete catalog data, and/or method of calculation. Excluding the latter, all of these factors appear to be linked, directly or indirectly, with the effective state of stress. Although time-dependent changes in b-value are well documented, conflicting observations reveal either a precursory increase or decrease in b value before major earthquakes. Our compilation of published analyses suggests that statistically significant b-variations occur globally on various timescales, including annual, monthly and perhaps diurnal. Taken together, our review suggests that b-variations are most plausibly linked with changes in effective stress.

Global Surface Temperature Change and Uncertainties Since 1861

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Samuel S. P.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The objective of this talk is to analyze the warming trend and its uncertainties of the global and hemi-spheric surface temperatures. By the method of statistical optimal averaging scheme, the land surface air temperature and sea surface temperature observational data are used to compute the spatial average annual mean surface air temperature. The optimal averaging method is derived from the minimization of the mean square error between the true and estimated averages and uses the empirical orthogonal functions. The method can accurately estimate the errors of the spatial average due to observational gaps and random measurement errors. In addition, quantified are three independent uncertainty factors: urbanization, change of the in situ observational practices and sea surface temperature data corrections. Based on these uncertainties, the best linear fit to annual global surface temperature gives an increase of 0.61 +/- 0.16 C between 1861 and 2000. This lecture will also touch the topics on the impact of global change on nature and environment. as well as the latest assessment methods for the attributions of global change.

Role of ocean isopycnal mixing in setting the uptake of anthropogenic carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnanadesikan, A.; Pradal, M. A. S.; Abernathey, R. P.

2014-12-01

The magnitude of the isopycnal stirring coefficient ARedi is poorly constrained from data and varies greatly across Earth System Models. This paper documents the impact of such uncertainty on the oceanic carbon cycle. We compare six spatial representations of ARedi. Four constant values (400, 800, 1200 and 2400 m2/s) are used to explore the difference between using the low values found in many models and the higher values seen in observational estimates. Models are also run with two spatially dependent values of ARedi based on altimetry, one which captures the fully two-dimensional structure of the mixing coefficient, the other of which looks at the zonally averaged structure alone. Under global warming significant changes are seen in the biological pump in convective regions, but these changes are largely locally compensated by changes in preformed DIC. Instead, differences in anthropogenic uptake of carbon are largely centered in the tropics, and can be well described in terms of a relatively simple diffusive approximation. Using ideal age as a tracer can give insight into the expected behavior of the models. The rate of oceanic mixing represents a quantitatively significant uncertainty in future projections of the global carbon cycle, amounting to about 20% of the oceanic uptake.

Seasonal variations in the stable carbon isotopic signature of biogenic methane in a coastal sediment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martens, C. S.; Green, C. D.; Blair, N. E.; Des Marais, D. J.

1986-01-01

Systematic seasonal variations in the stable carbon isotopic signature of methane gas occur in the anoxic sediments of Cape Lookout Bight, a lagoonal basin on North Carolina's Outer Banks. Values for the carbon isotope ratio of methane range from -57.3 per mil during summer to -68.5 per mil during winter in gas bubbles with an average methane content of 95 percent. The variations are hypothesized to result from changes in the pathways of microbial methane production and cycling of key substrates including acetate and hydrogen. The use of stable isotopic signatures to investigate the global methane cycle through mass balance calculations, involving various sediment and soil biogenic sources, appears to require seasonally averaged data from individual sites.

SVD analysis of Aura TES spectral residuals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beer, Reinhard; Kulawik, Susan S.; Rodgers, Clive D.; Bowman, Kevin W.

2005-01-01

Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis is both a powerful diagnostic tool and an effective method of noise filtering. We present the results of an SVD analysis of an ensemble of spectral residuals acquired in September 2004 from a 16-orbit Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) Global Survey and compare them to alternative methods such as zonal averages. In particular, the technique highlights issues such as the orbital variation of instrument response and incompletely modeled effects of surface emissivity and atmospheric composition.

Global and system-specific resting-state fMRI fluctuations are uncorrelated: principal component analysis reveals anti-correlated networks.

PubMed

Carbonell, Felix; Bellec, Pierre; Shmuel, Amir

2011-01-01

The influence of the global average signal (GAS) on functional-magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI)-based resting-state functional connectivity is a matter of ongoing debate. The global average fluctuations increase the correlation between functional systems beyond the correlation that reflects their specific functional connectivity. Hence, removal of the GAS is a common practice for facilitating the observation of network-specific functional connectivity. This strategy relies on the implicit assumption of a linear-additive model according to which global fluctuations, irrespective of their origin, and network-specific fluctuations are super-positioned. However, removal of the GAS introduces spurious negative correlations between functional systems, bringing into question the validity of previous findings of negative correlations between fluctuations in the default-mode and the task-positive networks. Here we present an alternative method for estimating global fluctuations, immune to the complications associated with the GAS. Principal components analysis was applied to resting-state fMRI time-series. A global-signal effect estimator was defined as the principal component (PC) that correlated best with the GAS. The mean correlation coefficient between our proposed PC-based global effect estimator and the GAS was 0.97±0.05, demonstrating that our estimator successfully approximated the GAS. In 66 out of 68 runs, the PC that showed the highest correlation with the GAS was the first PC. Since PCs are orthogonal, our method provides an estimator of the global fluctuations, which is uncorrelated to the remaining, network-specific fluctuations. Moreover, unlike the regression of the GAS, the regression of the PC-based global effect estimator does not introduce spurious anti-correlations beyond the decrease in seed-based correlation values allowed by the assumed additive model. After regressing this PC-based estimator out of the original time-series, we observed robust anti-correlations between resting-state fluctuations in the default-mode and the task-positive networks. We conclude that resting-state global fluctuations and network-specific fluctuations are uncorrelated, supporting a Resting-State Linear-Additive Model. In addition, we conclude that the network-specific resting-state fluctuations of the default-mode and task-positive networks show artifact-free anti-correlations.

Global warming and the possible globalization of vector-borne diseases: a call for increased awareness and action.

PubMed

Balogun, Emmanuel O; Nok, Andrew J; Kita, Kiyoshi

2016-01-01

Human activities such as burning of fossil fuels play a role in upsetting a previously more balanced and harmonious ecosystem. Climate change-a significant variation in the usual pattern of Earth's average weather conditions is a product of this ecosystem imbalance, and the rise in the Earth's average temperature (global warming) is a prominent evidence. There is a correlation between global warming and the ease of transmission of infectious diseases. Therefore, with global health in focus, we herein opine a stepping-up of research activities regarding global warming and infectious diseases globally.

A Web-based tool for UV irradiance data: predictions for European and Southeast Asian sites.

PubMed

Kift, Richard; Webb, Ann R; Page, John; Rimmer, John; Janjai, Serm

2006-01-01

There are a range of UV models available, but one needs significant pre-existing knowledge and experience in order to be able to use them. In this article a comparatively simple Web-based model developed for the SoDa (Integration and Exploitation of Networked Solar Radiation Databases for Environment Monitoring) project is presented. This is a clear-sky model with modifications for cloud effects. To determine if the model produces realistic UV data the output is compared with 1 year sets of hourly measurements at sites in the United Kingdom and Thailand. The accuracy of the output depends on the input, but reasonable results were obtained with the use of the default database inputs and improved when pyranometer instead of modeled data provided the global radiation input needed to estimate the UV. The average modeled values of UV for the UK site were found to be within 10% of measurements. For the tropical sites in Thailand the average modeled values were within 1120% of measurements for the four sites with the use of the default SoDa database values. These results improved when pyranometer data and TOMS ozone data from 2002 replaced the standard SoDa database values, reducing the error range for all four sites to less than 15%.

Importance of disturbance history on net primary productivity in the world's most productive forests and implications for the global carbon cycle.

PubMed

Volkova, Liubov; Roxburgh, Stephen H; Weston, Christopher J; Benyon, Richard G; Sullivan, Andrew L; Polglase, Philip J

2018-05-14

Analysis of growth and biomass turnover in natural forests of Eucalyptus regnans, the world's tallest angiosperm, reveals it is also the world's most productive forest type, with fire disturbance an important mediator of net primary productivity (NPP). A comprehensive empirical database was used to calculate the averaged temporal pattern of NPP from regeneration to 250 years age. NPP peaks at 23.1 ± 3.8 (95% interquantile range) Mg C ha -1  year -1 at age 14 years, and declines gradually to about 9.2 ± 0.8 Mg C ha -1  year -1 at 130 years, with an average NPP over 250 years of 11.4 ± 1.1 Mg C ha -1  year -1 , a value similar to the most productive temperate and tropical forests around the world. We then applied the age-class distribution of E. regnans resulting from relatively recent historical fires to estimate current NPP for the forest estate. Values of NPP were 40% higher (13 Mg C ha -1  year -1 ) than if forests were assumed to be at maturity (9.2 Mg C ha -1  year -1 ). The empirically derived NPP time series for the E. regnans estate was then compared against predictions from 21 global circulation models, showing that none of them had the capacity to simulate a post-disturbance peak in NPP, as found in E. regnans. The potential importance of disturbance impacts on NPP was further tested by applying a similar approach to the temperate forests of conterminous United States and of China. Allowing for the effects of disturbance, NPP summed across both regions was on average 11% (or 194 Tg C/year) greater than if all forests were assumed to be in a mature state. The results illustrate the importance of accounting for past disturbance history and growth stage when estimating forest primary productivity, with implications for carbon balance modelling at local to global scales. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Self Adaptive Differential Evolution Algorithm for Global Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Pravesh; Pant, Millie

This paper presents a new Differential Evolution algorithm based on hybridization of adaptive control parameters and trigonometric mutation. First we propose a self adaptive DE named ADE where choice of control parameter F and Cr is not fixed at some constant value but is taken iteratively. The proposed algorithm is further modified by applying trigonometric mutation in it and the corresponding algorithm is named as ATDE. The performance of ATDE is evaluated on the set of 8 benchmark functions and the results are compared with the classical DE algorithm in terms of average fitness function value, number of function evaluations, convergence time and success rate. The numerical result shows the competence of the proposed algorithm.

Large-scale circulation patterns, instability factors and global precipitation modeling as influenced by external forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bundel, A.; Kulikova, I.; Kruglova, E.; Muravev, A.

2003-04-01

The scope of the study is to estimate the relationship between large-scale circulation regimes, various instability indices and global precipitation with different boundary conditions, considered as external forcing. The experiments were carried out in the ensemble-prediction framework of the dynamic-statistical monthly forecast scheme run in the Hydrometeorological Research Center of Russia every ten days. The extension to seasonal intervals makes it necessary to investigate the role of slowly changing boundary conditions among which the sea surface temperature (SST) may be defined as the most effective factor. Continuous integrations of the global spectral T41L15 model for the whole year 2000 (starting from January 1) were performed with the climatic SST and the Reynolds Archive SSTs. Monthly values of the SST were projected on the year days using spline interpolation technique. First, the global precipitation values in experiments were compared to the GPCP (Global Precipitation Climate Program) daily observation data. Although the global mean precipitation is underestimated by the model, some large-scale regional amounts correspond to the real ones (e.g. for Europe) fairly well. On the whole, however, anomaly phases failed to be reproduced. The precipitation averaged over the whole land revealed a greater sensitivity to the SSTs than that over the oceans. The wavelet analysis was applied to separate the low- and high-frequency signal of the SST influence on the large-scale circulation and precipitation. A derivative of the Wallace-Gutzler teleconnection index for the East-Atlantic oscillation was taken as the circulation characteristic. The daily oscillation index values and precipitation amounts averaged over Europe were decomposed using wavelet approach with different “mother wavelets” up to approximation level 3. It was demonstrated that an increase in the precipitation amount over Europe was associated with the zonal flow intensification over the Northern Atlantic when the real SSTs were used. Blocking structures in the circulation caused decreasing precipitation amounts. The wavelet approach gave a more distinctive discrimination in the modeled circulation and precipitation patterns versus different external forcing than a number of other statistical techniques. Several atmospheric instability indices (e.g. the Phillips like parameters, Richardson number etc) were additionally used in post-processing for a more detailed validation of the modeled large-scale and total precipitation amounts. It was shown that a reasonable variety of instability indices must be used for such validations and for precipitation output corrections. Their statistical stability may be substantiated only on the ensemble modeling basis. This work was performed with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (02-05-64655).

Human-experienced temperature changes exceed global average climate changes for all income groups

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsiang, S. M.; Parshall, L.

2009-12-01

Global climate change alters local climates everywhere. Many climate change impacts, such as those affecting health, agriculture and labor productivity, depend on these local climatic changes, not global mean change. Traditional, spatially averaged climate change estimates are strongly influenced by the response of icecaps and oceans, providing limited information on human-experienced climatic changes. If used improperly by decision-makers, these estimates distort estimated costs of climate change. We overlay the IPCC’s 20 GCM simulations on the global population distribution to estimate local climatic changes experienced by the world population in the 21st century. The A1B scenario leads to a well-known rise in global average surface temperature of +2.0°C between the periods 2011-2030 and 2080-2099. Projected on the global population distribution in 2000, the median human will experience an annual average rise of +2.3°C (4.1°F) and the average human will experience a rise of +2.4°C (4.3°F). Less than 1% of the population will experience changes smaller than +1.0°C (1.8°F), while 25% and 10% of the population will experience changes greater than +2.9°C (5.2°F) and +3.5°C (6.2°F) respectively. 67% of the world population experiences temperature changes greater than the area-weighted average change of +2.0°C (3.6°F). Using two approaches to characterize the spatial distribution of income, we show that the wealthiest, middle and poorest thirds of the global population experience similar changes, with no group dominating the global average. Calculations for precipitation indicate that there is little change in average precipitation, but redistributions of precipitation occur in all income groups. These results suggest that economists and policy-makers using spatially averaged estimates of climate change to approximate local changes will systematically and significantly underestimate the impacts of climate change on the 21st century population. Top: The distribution of temperature changes experienced by the world population between 2011-2030 and 2080-2099. Lower 3 panels: Temperatures experienced 2011-2030 (dashed, circle = mean) and 2080-2099 (solid, cross = mean) by income tercile. The poor do not experience larger changes than the wealthy. However, the poor begin the 21st century at higher temperatures.

GloFAS-Seasonal: Operational Seasonal Ensemble River Flow Forecasts at the Global Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emerton, Rebecca; Zsoter, Ervin; Smith, Paul; Salamon, Peter

2017-04-01

Seasonal hydrological forecasting has potential benefits for many sectors, including agriculture, water resources management and humanitarian aid. At present, no global scale seasonal hydrological forecasting system exists operationally; although smaller scale systems have begun to emerge around the globe over the past decade, a system providing consistent global scale seasonal forecasts would be of great benefit in regions where no other forecasting system exists, and to organisations operating at the global scale, such as disaster relief. We present here a new operational global ensemble seasonal hydrological forecast, currently under development at ECMWF as part of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The proposed system, which builds upon the current version of GloFAS, takes the long-range forecasts from the ECMWF System4 ensemble seasonal forecast system (which incorporates the HTESSEL land surface scheme) and uses this runoff as input to the Lisflood routing model, producing a seasonal river flow forecast out to 4 months lead time, for the global river network. The seasonal forecasts will be evaluated using the global river discharge reanalysis, and observations where available, to determine the potential value of the forecasts across the globe. The seasonal forecasts will be presented as a new layer in the GloFAS interface, which will provide a global map of river catchments, indicating whether the catchment-averaged discharge forecast is showing abnormally high or low flows during the 4-month lead time. Each catchment will display the corresponding forecast as an ensemble hydrograph of the weekly-averaged discharge forecast out to 4 months, with percentile thresholds shown for comparison with the discharge climatology. The forecast visualisation is based on a combination of the current medium-range GloFAS forecasts and the operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal outlook, and aims to effectively communicate the nature of a seasonal outlook while providing useful information to users and partners. We demonstrate the first version of an operational GloFAS seasonal outlook, outlining the model set-up and presenting a first look at the seasonal forecasts that will be displayed in the GloFAS interface, and discuss the initial results of the forecast evaluation.

Radiative Effect of Clouds on Tropospheric Chemistry in a Global Three-Dimensional Chemical Transport Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Hongyu; Crawford, James H.; Pierce, Robert B.; Norris, Peter; Platnick, Steven E.; Chen, Gao; Logan, Jennifer A.; Yantosca, Robert M.; Evans, Mat J.; Kittaka, Chieko;

The potential impacts of 21st century climatic and population changes on human exposure to the virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti.

PubMed

Monaghan, A J; Sampson, K M; Steinhoff, D F; Ernst, K C; Ebi, K L; Jones, B; Hayden, M H

2018-02-01

The mosquito Aedes (Ae). aegypti transmits the viruses that cause dengue and chikungunya, two globally-important vector-borne diseases. We investigate how choosing alternate emissions and/or socioeconomic pathways may modulate future human exposure to Ae. aegypti . Occurrence patterns for Ae. aegypti for 2061-2080 are mapped globally using empirically downscaled air temperature and precipitation projections from the Community Earth System Model, for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Population growth is quantified using gridded global population projections consistent with two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), SSP3 and SSP5. Change scenarios are compared to a 1950-2000 reference period. A global land area of 56.9 M km 2 is climatically suitable for Ae. aegypti during the reference period, and is projected to increase by 8% (RCP4.5) to 13% (RCP8.5) by 2061-2080. The annual average number of people exposed globally to Ae. aegypti for the reference period is 3794 M, a value projected to statistically significantly increase by 298-460 M (8-12%) by 2061-2080 if only climate change is considered, and by 4805-5084 M (127-134%) for SSP3 and 2232-2483 M (59-65%) for SSP5 considering both climate and population change (lower and upper values of each range represent RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively). Thus, taking the lower-emissions RCP4.5 pathway instead of RCP8.5 may mitigate future human exposure to Ae. aegypti globally, but the effect of population growth on exposure will likely be larger. Regionally, Australia, Europe and North America are projected to have the largest percentage increases in human exposure to Ae. aegypti considering only climate change.

Can We Use Regression Modeling to Quantify Mean Annual Streamflow at a Global-Scale?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbarossa, V.; Huijbregts, M. A. J.; Hendriks, J. A.; Beusen, A.; Clavreul, J.; King, H.; Schipper, A.

2016-12-01

Quantifying mean annual flow of rivers (MAF) at ungauged sites is essential for a number of applications, including assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. MAF can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict MAF based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. In this study, we developed a global-scale regression model for MAF using observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from 1,885 catchments worldwide, ranging from 2 to 106 km2 in size. In addition, we compared the performance of the regression model with the predictive ability of the spatially explicit global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB [van Beek et al., 2011] by comparing results from both models to independent measurements. We obtained a regression model explaining 89% of the variance in MAF based on catchment area, mean annual precipitation and air temperature, average slope and elevation. The regression model performed better than PCR-GLOBWB for the prediction of MAF, as root-mean-square error values were lower (0.29 - 0.38 compared to 0.49 - 0.57) and the modified index of agreement was higher (0.80 - 0.83 compared to 0.72 - 0.75). Our regression model can be applied globally at any point of the river network, provided that the input parameters are within the range of values employed in the calibration of the model. The performance is reduced for water scarce regions and further research should focus on improving such an aspect for regression-based global hydrological models.

Paleosecular variation and time-averaged field analysis over the last 10 Ma from a new global dataset (PSV10)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cromwell, G.; Johnson, C. L.; Tauxe, L.; Constable, C.; Jarboe, N.

2015-12-01

Previous paleosecular variation (PSV) and time-averaged field (TAF) models draw on compilations of paleodirectional data that lack equatorial and high latitude sites and use latitudinal virtual geomagnetic pole (VGP) cutoffs designed to remove transitional field directions. We present a new selected global dataset (PSV10) of paleodirectional data spanning the last 10 Ma. We include all results calculated with modern laboratory methods, regardless of site VGP colatitude, that meet statistically derived selection criteria. We exclude studies that target transitional field states or identify significant tectonic effects, and correct for any bias from serial correlation by averaging directions from sequential lava flows. PSV10 has an improved global distribution compared with previous compilations, comprising 1519 sites from 71 studies. VGP dispersion in PSV10 varies with latitude, exhibiting substantially higher values in the southern hemisphere than at corresponding northern latitudes. Inclination anomaly estimates at many latitudes are within error of an expected GAD field, but significant negative anomalies are found at equatorial and mid-northern latitudes. Current PSV models Model G and TK03 do not fit observed PSV or TAF latitudinal behavior in PSV10, or subsets of normal and reverse polarity data, particularly for southern hemisphere sites. Attempts to fit these observations with simple modifications to TK03 showed slight statistical improvements, but still exceed acceptable errors. The root-mean-square misfit of TK03 (and subsequent iterations) is substantially lower for the normal polarity subset of PSV10, compared to reverse polarity data. Two-thirds of data in PSV10 are normal polarity, most which are from the last 5 Ma, so we develop a new TAF model using this subset of data. We use the resulting TAF model to explore whether new statistical PSV models can better describe our new global compilation.

Bison body size and climate change.

PubMed

Martin, Jeff M; Mead, Jim I; Barboza, Perry S

2018-05-01

The relationship between body size and temperature of mammals is poorly resolved, especially for large keystone species such as bison ( Bison bison ). Bison are well represented in the fossil record across North America, which provides an opportunity to relate body size to climate within a species. We measured the length of a leg bone (calcaneal tuber, DstL) in 849 specimens from 60 localities that were dated by stratigraphy and 14 C decay. We estimated body mass ( M ) as M  = (DstL/11.49) 3 . Average annual temperature was estimated from δ 18 O values in the ice cores from Greenland. Calcaneal tuber length of  Bison  declined over the last 40,000 years, that is, average body mass was 37% larger (910 ± 50 kg) than today (665 ± 21 kg). Average annual temperature has warmed by 6°C since the Last Glacial Maximum (~24-18 kya) and is predicted to further increase by 4°C by the end of the 21st century. If body size continues to linearly respond to global temperature, Bison body mass will likely decline by an additional 46%, to 357 ± 54 kg, with an increase of 4°C globally. The rate of mass loss is 41 ± 10 kg per°C increase in global temperature. Changes in body size of Bison may be a result of migration, disease, or human harvest but those effects are likely to be local and short-term and not likely to persist over the long time scale of the fossil record. The strong correspondence between body size of bison and air temperature is more likely the result of persistent effects on the ability to grow and the consequences of sustaining a large body mass in a warming environment. Continuing rises in global temperature will likely depress body sizes of bison, and perhaps other large grazers, without human intervention.

The New 20-Year Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Merged Satellite and Rainguage Monthly Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, Robert; Huffman, George; Xie, Ping Ping; Rudolf, Bruno; Gruber, Arnold; Janowiak, John

1999-01-01

A new 20-year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis has been completed as part of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). This Version 2 of the community generated data set is a result of combining the procedures and data sets as described. The global, monthly, 2.5x 2.5 degree latitude-longitude product utilizes precipitation estimates from low-orbit microwave sensors (SSM/1) and geosynchronous IR sensors and raingauge information over land. The low-orbit microwave estimates are used to adjust or correct the geosynchronous IR estimates, thereby maximizing the utility of the more physically-based microwave estimates and the finer time sampling of the geosynchronous observations. Information from raingauges is blended into the analyses over land. In the 1986-present period TOVS-based precipitation estimates are adjusted to GPCP fields and used in polar regions to produce globally-complete results. The extension back to 1979 utilizes the procedures of Xie and Arkin and their OLR Precipitation Index (OPI). The 20-year climatology of the Version 2 GPCP analysis indicates the expected features of a very strong Pacific Ocean ITCZ and SPCZ with maximum 20-year means approaching 10 mm/day. A similar strength maximum over land is evident over Borneo. Weaker maxima in the tropics occur in the Atlantic ITCZ and over South America and Africa. In mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere the Western Pacific and Western Atlantic maxima have values of approximately 7 mm/day, while in the Southern Hemisphere the mid-latitude maxima are located southeast of Africa, in mid-Pacific as an extension of the SPCZ and southeast of South America. In terms of global totals the GPCP analysis shows 2.7 mm/day (3.0 mm/day over ocean; 2.1 mm/day over land), similar to the Jaeger climatology, but not other climatologies. Zonal averages peak at 6 mm/day at 7*N with mid-latitude peaks of about 3 mm/day at 40-45* latitude. Poleward of 45* the GPCP analysis shows larger zonally-averaged values than most previous satellite-based estimates, although the values are similar to tl,ie Jaeger climatology. Over both ocean areas and at high latitudes the analysis requires additional validation and comparison with special, independent data sets from field experiments and from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) to confirm the absolute magnitude and variations of precipitation seen in the analysis. Interannual and other variations of the global fields will be shown focusing on the recent ('97-'99) ENSO event compared with previous events, including teleconnections at mid and high latitudes. An ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) calculated using the new data set will be described and related to the evolution of the ENSO events during the 20-year period.

In Utero Bisphenol A Concentration, Metabolism, and Global DNA Methylation Across Matched Placenta, Kidney, and Liver in the Human Fetus

PubMed Central

Nahar, Muna S.; Liao, Chunyang; Kannan, Kurunthachalam; Harris, Craig; Dolinoy, Dana C.

2014-01-01

While urine has been an easily accessible and feasible matrix for human biomonitoring, analytical measurements in internal tissues and organs can provide more accurate exposure assessments to understand disease etiology. This is especially important for the endocrine active compound, bisphenol A (BPA), where studies investigating internal doses at sensitive periods of human development are currently lacking. Herein, BPA concentrations, BPA-specific metabolizing enzyme gene expression, and global DNA methylation were characterized across three matched tissues from elective pregnancy terminations of 2nd trimester human fetuses: the placenta, liver, and kidney (N=12 each; N=36 total). Compared to liver (free: 0.54-50.5 ng/g), BPA concentrations were lower in matched placenta (<0.05-25.4 ng/g) and kidney (0.08-11.1 ng/g) specimens. BPA-specific metabolism gene expression of GUSB, UGT2B15, STS, and SULT1A1 differed across each tissue type; however, conjugation and deconjugation expression patterns were similar across the fetus. Average LINE1 and CCGG global methylation were 58.3 and 59.2% in placenta, 79.5 and 66.4% in fetal liver, and 77.9 and 77.0% in fetal kidney, with significant tissue-specific DNA methylation differences in both LINE1 (p-value <0.001) and CCGG content (p-value <0.001). Total BPA concentrations were positively associated with global methylation for the placenta only using the LINE1 assay (p-value: 0.002), suggesting organ-specific biological effects after fetal exposure. Utilizing sensitive human clinical specimens, results are informative for BPA toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics assessment in the developing human fetus. PMID:25434263

Global DNA cytosine methylation as an evolving trait: phylogenetic signal and correlated evolution with genome size in angiosperms

PubMed Central

Alonso, Conchita; Pérez, Ricardo; Bazaga, Pilar; Herrera, Carlos M.

2015-01-01

DNA cytosine methylation is a widespread epigenetic mechanism in eukaryotes, and plant genomes commonly are densely methylated. Genomic methylation can be associated with functional consequences such as mutational events, genomic instability or altered gene expression, but little is known on interspecific variation in global cytosine methylation in plants. In this paper, we compare global cytosine methylation estimates obtained by HPLC and use a phylogenetically-informed analytical approach to test for significance of evolutionary signatures of this trait across 54 angiosperm species in 25 families. We evaluate whether interspecific variation in global cytosine methylation is statistically related to phylogenetic distance and also whether it is evolutionarily correlated with genome size (C-value). Global cytosine methylation varied widely between species, ranging between 5.3% (Arabidopsis) and 39.2% (Narcissus). Differences between species were related to their evolutionary trajectories, as denoted by the strong phylogenetic signal underlying interspecific variation. Global cytosine methylation and genome size were evolutionarily correlated, as revealed by the significant relationship between the corresponding phylogenetically independent contrasts. On average, a ten-fold increase in genome size entailed an increase of about 10% in global cytosine methylation. Results show that global cytosine methylation is an evolving trait in angiosperms whose evolutionary trajectory is significantly linked to changes in genome size, and suggest that the evolutionary implications of epigenetic mechanisms are likely to vary between plant lineages. PMID:25688257

Urban 'Dry Island' in Moscow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lokoshchenko, Mikhail A.

2017-04-01

The urban 'dry island' (UDI) phenomenon over Moscow city has been studied and analyzed for the period since the end of the 19th century till recent years using the data of the ground meteorological network. It concludes into less values of relative humidity in a city in the comparison with surrounding rural zone. The reason of this phenomenon is, firstly, limited areas of forest zones and less number of other water vapor sources inside a city and, besides, indirect influence of the urban heat island (UHI), i.e. higher air temperature T inside a city. Mean-annual water vapor pressure E doesn't demonstrate systematic changes in Moscow during the last 146 years. The linear regression coefficient K of its course is equal to only 0.0015 [hPa/year], thus since 1870 the average water content in the ground air layer above Moscow increased on average only a little: by 0.2 hPa; such a small difference seems to be negligible and statistically non-significant. Unlike this parameter mean-annual relative humidity F demonstrates quick and systematic (steady in time) fall with the average rate of K = -0.06 [%/year] during the last 146 years; in other words, it decreased from 81 % in 1870s to nearly 72 % in recent years. Inside the city it is the result of general T increase due to both global warming and, besides, intensification of Moscow UHI. Long-term changes of the F spatial field in Moscow city have been studied in details for separate periods since 1890s till recent years. As a result the urban 'dry island' is found as a real physical phenomenon which is closely connected with UHI; the absolute value of its intensity as well as for the UHI is increasing in time: from -4 % at the end of the 19th century to -8 ÷-9 % now. During last two decades UDI as well as UHI became much stronger in Moscow than before. For instance, on average of five years from 2010 to 2014 the F value at 'Balchug' station at the city centre (close to Moscow Kremlin) is the lowest among all other stations in the region: 68.0 %; the mean F values in urban and rural areas by the data of 5 urban and 13 rural stations for the same period are 73.2 and 76.6 % accordingly. Hence the maximum intensity of UDI, i.e. a difference between values from central urban station and rural stations, is equal to -8.6 % whereas the spatial-averaged intensity that is a difference between average values from all urban and all rural stations is -3.4 %. Thus, the UDI in recent years is mapped by two isovapores: 70 and 75 %. The difference between values of E inside and outside the city is small. For example, on average of 7 years from 1991 to 1997 it was only 0.1 hPa so it is not statistically significant. Thus, unlike average dryness, average humidity does not demonstrate stable in time local effects such as urban island.

A three-dimensional model of the atmospheric chemistry of E and Z-CF3CH=CHCl (HCFO-1233(zd) (E/Z))

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulbaek Andersen, Mads P.; Schmidt, Johan A.; Volkova, Aleksandra; Wuebbles, Donald J.

2018-04-01

Using a 3-dimensional global atmospheric chemistry and transport model we investigated the atmospheric degradation of HCFO-1233zd(E), E-CF3CH=CHCl, a commercially important, new hydrofluorocarbon replacement compound. Atmospheric degradation of E-CF3CH=CHCl is initiated by reaction with OH radicals, which leads to several chemical oxidation products. Dissemination of these oxidation products to the environment is of concern due to the possible formation of trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) as a degradation product. The model indicates that the average global yield of TFA from atmospheric processing of E-CF3CH=CHCl is approximately 2%. The annually averaged atmospheric lifetime of E-CF3CH=CHCl was found to be approximately 36 days (12 days for Z-CF3CH=CHCl). As E-CF3CH=CHCl is short lived, by far the majority of its Cl atoms will be released and deposited in the lower atmosphere, and the impact on stratospheric ozone is insignificant. An Ozone Depletion Potential of 0.00030 was determined. The Photochemical Ozone Creation Potential was evaluated and a value of 3.6 determined. Finally, we derive a Global Warming Potential for E-CF3CH=CHCl for a 100 year time horizon of <5. For comparison, data for the stereoismeric analogue, Z-CF3CH=CHCl, was also obtained from the model.

Comparisons of Radiative Flux Distributions from Satellite Observations and Global Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raschke, Ehrhard; Kinne, Stefan; Wild, Martin; Stackhouse, Paul; Rossow, Bill

2014-05-01

Radiative flux distributions at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and at the surface are compared between typical data from satellite observations and from global modeling. Averages of CERES, ISCCP and SRB data-products (for the same 4-year period) represent satellite observations. Central values of IPCC-4AR output (over a 12-year period) represent global modeling. At TOA, differences are dominated by differences for cloud-effects, which are extracted from the differences between all-sky and clear-sky radiative flux products. As satellite data are considered as TOA reference, these differences document the poor representation of clouds in global modeling, especially for low altitude clouds over oceans. At the surface the differences, caused by the different cloud treatment are overlaid by a general offset. Satellite products suggest a ca 15Wm-2 stronger surface net-imbalance (and with it stronger precipitation). Since surface products of satellite and modeling are based on simulations and many assumptions, this difference has remained an open issue. BSRN surface monitoring is too short and too sparsely distributed for clear answers to provide a reliable basis for validation.

First archaeomagnetic field intensity data from Ethiopia, Africa (1615 ± 12 AD)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osete, María Luisa; Catanzariti, Gianluca; Chauvin, Annick; Pavón-Carrasco, Francisco Javier; Roperch, Pierrick; Fernández, Víctor M.

2015-05-01

First archaeointensity determinations have been obtained from Ethiopia. Seven bricks (34 specimens) from the Däbsan archaeological remains were subjected to archaeointensity determination by means of classical Thellier-Thellier experiment including tests for magnetic anisotropy and magnetic cooling rate dependency. The age of the Däbsan Palace is well controlled by historical information: between 1603, when land grants were conceded to the Jesuits and the Catholicism was established as the official religion in Ethiopia, and the age of the Palace foundation in 1626-27. Successful archaeointensity determinations were obtained in 27 specimens from five individual bricks revealing an average field value of 33.5 ± 1.1 μT, which is 11-26% lower than expected values from global geomagnetic models based on historical and archaeomagnetic data. Global models for 1615 AD predict a low in central-southern Africa related to past location of the present Southern Atlantic Anomaly (SAA). Our results suggest that the field intensity in central Africa may have been slightly lower than global model predictions. This would indicate that the low could be probably more extended towards central-eastern Africa (or more intense) than previously considered. Further data from this region are especially welcome to delineate the evolution of the SAA.

Global Radiative Forcing of Coupled Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols in a Unified General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liao, Hong; Seinfeld, John H.; Adams, Peter J.; Mickley, Loretta J.

2008-01-01

Global simulations of sea salt and mineral dust aerosols are integrated into a previously developed unified general circulation model (GCM), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM II', that simulates coupled tropospheric ozone-NOx-hydrocarbon chemistry and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, and secondary organic carbon aerosols. The fully coupled gas-aerosol unified GCM allows one to evaluate the extent to which global burdens, radiative forcing, and eventually climate feedbacks of ozone and aerosols are influenced by gas-aerosol chemical interactions. Estimated present-day global burdens of sea salt and mineral dust are 6.93 and 18.1 Tg with lifetimes of 0.4 and 3.9 days, respectively. The GCM is applied to estimate current top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiative forcing by tropospheric ozone and all natural and anthropogenic aerosol components. The global annual mean value of the radiative forcing by tropospheric ozone is estimated to be +0.53 W m(sup -2) at TOA and +0.07 W m(sup -2) at the Earth's surface. Global, annual average TOA and surface radiative forcing by all aerosols are estimated as -0.72 and -4.04 W m(sup -2), respectively. While the predicted highest aerosol cooling and heating at TOA are -10 and +12 W m(sup -2) respectively, surface forcing can reach values as high as -30 W m(sup -2), mainly caused by the absorption by black carbon, mineral dust, and OC. We also estimate the effects of chemistry-aerosol coupling on forcing estimates based on currently available understanding of heterogeneous reactions on aerosols. Through altering the burdens of sulfate, nitrate, and ozone, heterogeneous reactions are predicted to change the global mean TOA forcing of aerosols by 17% and influence global mean TOA forcing of tropospheric ozone by 15%.

GOSAT observations of anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide and methane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janardanan, Rajesh; Maksyutov, Shamil; Oda, Tomohiro; Saito, Makoto; Ito, Akihiko; Kaiser, Johannes W.; Ganshin, Alexander; Yoshida, Yukio; Yokota, Tatsuya; Matsunaga, Tsuneo

2017-04-01

Carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) are the most important greenhouse gases in terms of radiative forcing. Human activities such as combustion of fossil fuel (for CO2), and gas leakage, animal agriculture, rice cultivation and landfill emissions (for CH4), are considered to be major sources of their emissions. Global emissions datasets usually depend on emission estimates reported by countries, which are seldom evaluated in an objective way. Here we present a method for delineating anthropogenic contributions to global atmospheric CO2 and CH4 (2009-2014) concentration fields using GOSAT observations of column-average dry air mole fractions (XCO2 and XCH4) and atmospheric transport model simulations using high-resolution emissions datasets (ODIAC for CO2 and EDGAR for CH4). The XCO2 and XCH4 concentration enhancements due to anthropogenic emissions are estimated at all GOSAT observation locations using the transport model simulation. We calculated threshold values to classify GOSAT observations into two categories: (1) data influenced by the anthropogenic sources and (2) those not influenced. We defined a clean background (averaged concentrations of GOSAT data that are free from contamination) in 10˚ ×10˚ regions over the globe and subtracted the background values from individual GOSAT observations. The anomalies (GOSAT observed values minus background values) were binned and compared to model-based anomalies over continental regions and selected countries. For CO2, we have found global and regional linear relationships between model and observed anomalies especially for Eurasia and North America. The analysis for East Asian region showed a systematic bias that is somewhat comparable in magnitude to the uncertainties in emission inventories in that region, which were reported by recent studies. In the case of CH4, we found a good match between inventory-based estimates and GOSAT observations for continental regions and large countries. The inventory-based estimate over North American region is biased which is in agreement with recent studies. Currently, our method is limited by the numbers of GOSAT observations available. If sufficient numbers of satellite observations are available from a instrument like GOSAT, our method could be a useful tool for monitoring greenhouse gas emissions using the regression slope between modeled and observed anomalies as a correction factor for nationally reported emissions.

Improvement of GPS radio occultation retrieval error of E region electron density: COSMIC measurement and IRI model simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Kang-Hung; Su, Ching-Lun; Chu, Yen-Hsyang

2015-03-01

In this article, we use the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model to simulate temporal and spatial distributions of global E region electron densities retrieved by the FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC satellites by means of GPS radio occultation (RO) technique. Despite regional discrepancies in the magnitudes of the E region electron density, the IRI model simulations can, on the whole, describe the COSMIC measurements in quality and quantity. On the basis of global ionosonde network and the IRI model, the retrieval errors of the global COSMIC-measured E region peak electron density (NmE) from July 2006 to July 2011 are examined and simulated. The COSMIC measurement and the IRI model simulation both reveal that the magnitudes of the percentage error (PE) and root mean-square-error (RMSE) of the relative RO retrieval errors of the NmE values are dependent on local time (LT) and geomagnetic latitude, with minimum in the early morning and at high latitudes and maximum in the afternoon and at middle latitudes. In addition, the seasonal variation of PE and RMSE values seems to be latitude dependent. After removing the IRI model-simulated GPS RO retrieval errors from the original COSMIC measurements, the average values of the annual and monthly mean percentage errors of the RO retrieval errors of the COSMIC-measured E region electron density are, respectively, substantially reduced by a factor of about 2.95 and 3.35, and the corresponding root-mean-square errors show averaged decreases of 15.6% and 15.4%, respectively. It is found that, with this process, the largest reduction in the PE and RMSE of the COSMIC-measured NmE occurs at the equatorial anomaly latitudes 10°N-30°N in the afternoon from 14 to 18 LT, with a factor of 25 and 2, respectively. Statistics show that the residual errors that remained in the corrected COSMIC-measured NmE vary in a range of -20% to 38%, which are comparable to or larger than the percentage errors of the IRI-predicted NmE fluctuating in a range of -6.5% to 20%.

Cloud-to-ground lightning activity in Colombia: A 14-year study using lightning location system data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrera, J.; Younes, C.; Porras, L.

2018-05-01

This paper presents the analysis of 14 years of cloud-to-ground lightning activity observation in Colombia using lightning location systems (LLS) data. The first Colombian LLS operated from 1997 to 2001. After a few years, this system was upgraded and a new LLS has been operating since 2007. Data obtained from these two systems was analyzed in order to obtain lightning parameters used in designing lightning protection systems. The flash detection efficiency was estimated using average peak current maps and some theoretical results previously published. Lightning flash multiplicity was evaluated using a stroke grouping algorithm resulting in average values of about 1.0 and 1.6 for positive and negative flashes respectively and for both LLS. The time variation of this parameter changes slightly for the years considered in this study. The first stroke peak current for negative and positive flashes shows median values close to 29 kA and 17 kA respectively for both networks showing a great dependence on the flash detection efficiency. The average percentage of negative and positive flashes shows a 74.04% and 25.95% of occurrence respectively. The daily variation shows a peak between 23 and 02 h. The monthly variation of this parameter exhibits a bimodal behavior typical of the regions located near The Equator. The lightning flash density was obtained dividing the study area in 3 × 3 km cells and resulting in maximum average values of 25 and 35 flashes km- 2 year- 1 for each network respectively. A comparison of these results with global lightning activity hotspots was performed showing good correlation. Besides, the lightning flash density variation with altitude shows an inverse relation between these two variables.

The influence of corneal astigmatism on retinal nerve fiber layer thickness and optic nerve head parameter measurements by spectral-domain optical coherence tomography.

PubMed

Liu, Lin; Zou, Jun; Huang, Hui; Yang, Jian-guo; Chen, Shao-rong

2012-05-23

To evaluate the influence of corneal astigmatism (CA) on retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness and optic nerve head(ONH) parameters measured with spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (OCT) in high myopes patients before refractive surgery. Seventy eyes of 35 consecutive refractive surgery candidates were included in this study. The mean age of the subjects was 26.42 ± 6.95 years, the average CA was -1.17 diopters (D; SD 0.64; range -0.2 to-3.3D), All subjects in this study were WTR CA. 34 eyes were in the normal CA group with a mean CA was -0.67 ± 0.28D, 36 eyes were in the high CA group with an average CA of -1.65 ± 0.49D. All subjects underwent ophthalmic examination and imaging with the Cirrus HD OCT. No significant difference was noted in the average cup-to-disk ratio, vertical cup-to-disk ratio and cup volume (all P values > 0.05). Compared with the normal CA group, the high CA group had a larger disc area and rim area, thinner RNFL thickness in the temporal quadrant, and the superotemporal and inferotemporal peaks were farther to the temporal horizon (All P values < 0.05). There were no significant differences between the two groups in global average RNFL thickness, as well as superior, nasal and inferior quadrant RNFL thickness (all P values > 0.05). The degree of with-the-rule CA should be considered when interpreting ONH parameters and peripapillary RNFL thickness measured by the Cirrus HD OCT. The virtual slide(s) for this article can be found here: http://www.diagnosticpathology.diagnomx.eu/vs/1148475676881895.

Utilizing Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2005) to Evaluate Entry Probe Mission Sites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justh, Hilary L.; Justus, Carl G.

2008-01-01

The Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2005) is an engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. An overview is presented of Mars-GRAM 2005 and its new features. The "auxiliary profile" option is one new feature of Mars-GRAM 2005. This option uses an input file of temperature and density versus altitude to replace the mean atmospheric values from Mars-GRAM's conventional (General Circulation Model) climatology. Any source of data or alternate model output can be used to generate an auxiliary profile. Auxiliary profiles for this study were produced from mesoscale model output (Southwest Research Institute's Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS) model and Oregon State University's Mars mesoscale model (MMM5) model) and a global Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) database. The global TES database has been specifically generated for purposes of making Mars-GRAM auxiliary profiles. This data base contains averages and standard deviations of temperature, density, and thermal wind components, averaged over 5-by-5 degree latitude-longitude bins and 15 degree Ls bins, for each of three Mars years of TES nadir data. The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) sites are used as a sample of how Mars-GRAM' could be a valuable tool for planning of future Mars entry probe missions. Results are presented using auxiliary profiles produced from the mesoscale model output and TES observed data for candidate MSL landing sites. Input parameters rpscale (for density perturbations) and rwscale (for wind perturbations) can be used to "recalibrate" Mars-GRAM perturbation magnitudes to better replicate observed or mesoscale model variability.

The impact of reforestation in the northeast United States on precipitation and surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Allyson

Since the 1920s, forest coverage in the northeastern United States has recovered from disease, clearing for agricultural and urban development, and the demands of the timber industry. Such a dramatic change in ground cover can influence heat and moisture fluxes to the atmosphere, as measured in altered landscapes in Australia, Israel, and the Amazon. In this study, the impacts of recent reforestation in the northeastern United States on summertime precipitation and surface temperature were quantified by comparing average modern values to 1950s values. Weak positive (negative) relationships between reforestation and average monthly precipitation and daily minimum temperatures (average daily maximum surface temperature) were found. There was no relationship between reforestation and average surface temperature. Results of the observational analysis were compared with results obtained from reforestation scenarios simulated with the BUGS5 global climate model. The single difference between the model runs was the amount of forest coverage in the northeast United States; three levels of forest were defined - a grassland state, with 0% forest coverage, a completely forested state, with approximately 100% forest coverage, and a control state, with forest coverage closely resembling modern forest coverage. The three simulations were compared, and had larger magnitude average changes in precipitation and in all temperature variables. The difference in magnitudes between the model simulations observations was much larger than the difference in the amount of reforestation in each case. Additionally, unlike in observations, a negative relationship was found between average daily minimum temperature and amount of forest coverage, implying that additional factors influence temperature and precipitation in the real world that are not accounted for in the model.

A straightforward frequency-estimation technique for GPS carrier-phase time transfer.

PubMed

Hackman, Christine; Levine, Judah; Parker, Thomas E; Piester, Dirk; Becker, Jürgen

2006-09-01

Although Global Positioning System (GPS) carrier-phase time transfer (GPSCPTT) offers frequency stability approaching 10-15 at averaging times of 1 d, a discontinuity occurs in the time-transfer estimates between the end of one processing batch (1-3 d in length) and the beginning of the next. The average frequency over a multiday analysis period often has been computed by first estimating and removing these discontinuities, i.e., through concatenation. We present a new frequency-estimation technique in which frequencies are computed from the individual batches then averaged to obtain the mean frequency for a multiday period. This allows the frequency to be computed without the uncertainty associated with the removal of the discontinuities and requires fewer computational resources. The new technique was tested by comparing the fractional frequency-difference values it yields to those obtained using a GPSCPTT concatenation method and those obtained using two-way satellite time-and-frequency transfer (TWSTFT). The clocks studied were located in Braunschweig, Germany, and in Boulder, CO. The frequencies obtained from the GPSCPTT measurements using either method agreed with those obtained from TWSTFT at several parts in 1016. The frequency values obtained from the GPSCPTT data by use of the new method agreed with those obtained using the concatenation technique at 1-4 x 10(-16).

Evaluation of the Ganglion Cell Complex and Retinal Nerve Fiber Layer in Low, Moderate, and High Myopia: A Study by RTVue Spectral Domain Optical Coherence Tomography.

PubMed

Sezgin Akcay, Betul Ilkay; Gunay, Betul Onal; Kardes, Esra; Unlu, Cihan; Ergin, Ahmet

2017-01-01

To assess the effect of low, moderate, and high myopia on the thickness of the retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) and Ganglion cell complex (GCC) measured by Spectral Domain Optical Coherence Tomography (SD-OCT) in non-glaucomatous subjects. The subjects were divided into three groups: low (n = 81, 35.6%), moderate (n = 79, 34.8%), and highly myopic eyes (n = 67, 29.5%). The RNFL thickness profile, including the average, superior, nasal, inferior, and temporal quadrant and each of the eight directional thicknesses, was measured. GCC parameters, including the average, superior, and inferior values, the focal loss volume (FLV), and the global loss volume (GLV), were measured. The correlation between the OCT measurements and the axial length was evaluated. The average, superior, inferior, and nasal RNFL thicknesses of low and moderate myopic eyes were found to be significantly higher than those of highly myopic eyes. The temporal RNFL thicknesses were not different among the three groups. The average, superior, and inferior ganglion cell complex values of low and moderate myopic eyes were significantly higher than those of highly myopic eyes. The FLV and GLV of low and moderate myopic eyes were significantly higher than those of highly myopic eyes (p = 0.001 for all). In the moderate and high myopia groups, the average RNFL thickness and GCC thickness were both negatively correlated with the axial length. Highly myopic subjects tend to have thinner RNFL and GCC thicknesses than subjects with low and moderate myopia.

High-resolution global grids of revised Priestley-Taylor and Hargreaves-Samani coefficients for assessing ASCE-standardized reference crop evapotranspiration and solar radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aschonitis, Vassilis G.; Papamichail, Dimitris; Demertzi, Kleoniki; Colombani, Nicolo; Mastrocicco, Micol; Ghirardini, Andrea; Castaldelli, Giuseppe; Fano, Elisa-Anna

2017-08-01

The objective of the study is to provide global grids (0.5°) of revised annual coefficients for the Priestley-Taylor (P-T) and Hargreaves-Samani (H-S) evapotranspiration methods after calibration based on the ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers)-standardized Penman-Monteith method (the ASCE method includes two reference crops: short-clipped grass and tall alfalfa). The analysis also includes the development of a global grid of revised annual coefficients for solar radiation (Rs) estimations using the respective Rs formula of H-S. The analysis was based on global gridded climatic data of the period 1950-2000. The method for deriving annual coefficients of the P-T and H-S methods was based on partial weighted averages (PWAs) of their mean monthly values. This method estimates the annual values considering the amplitude of the parameter under investigation (ETo and Rs) giving more weight to the monthly coefficients of the months with higher ETo values (or Rs values for the case of the H-S radiation formula). The method also eliminates the effect of unreasonably high or low monthly coefficients that may occur during periods where ETo and Rs fall below a specific threshold. The new coefficients were validated based on data from 140 stations located in various climatic zones of the USA and Australia with expanded observations up to 2016. The validation procedure for ETo estimations of the short reference crop showed that the P-T and H-S methods with the new revised coefficients outperformed the standard methods reducing the estimated root mean square error (RMSE) in ETo values by 40 and 25 %, respectively. The estimations of Rs using the H-S formula with revised coefficients reduced the RMSE by 28 % in comparison to the standard H-S formula. Finally, a raster database was built consisting of (a) global maps for the mean monthly ETo values estimated by ASCE-standardized method for both reference crops, (b) global maps for the revised annual coefficients of the P-T and H-S evapotranspiration methods for both reference crops and a global map for the revised annual coefficient of the H-S radiation formula and (c) global maps that indicate the optimum locations for using the standard P-T and H-S methods and their possible annual errors based on reference values. The database can support estimations of ETo and solar radiation for locations where climatic data are limited and it can support studies which require such estimations on larger scales (e.g. country, continent, world). The datasets produced in this study are archived in the PANGAEA database (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.868808) and in the ESRN database (http://www.esrn-database.org or http://esrn-database.weebly.com).

Global methylmercury exposure from seafood consumption and risk of developmental neurotoxicity: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Burke, Thomas A; Navas-Acien, Ana; Breysse, Patrick N; McGready, John; Fox, Mary A

2014-01-01

Abstract Objective To examine biomarkers of methylmercury (MeHg) intake in women and infants from seafood-consuming populations globally and characterize the comparative risk of fetal developmental neurotoxicity. Methods A search was conducted of the published literature reporting total mercury (Hg) in hair and blood in women and infants. These biomarkers are validated proxy measures of MeHg, a neurotoxin found primarily in seafood. Average and high-end biomarkers were extracted, stratified by seafood consumption context, and pooled by category. Medians for average and high-end pooled distributions were compared with the reference level established by a joint expert committee of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Health Organization (WHO). Findings Selection criteria were met by 164 studies of women and infants from 43 countries. Pooled average biomarkers suggest an intake of MeHg several times over the FAO/WHO reference in fish-consuming riparians living near small-scale gold mining and well over the reference in consumers of marine mammals in Arctic regions. In coastal regions of south-eastern Asia, the western Pacific and the Mediterranean, average biomarkers approach the reference. Although the two former groups have a higher risk of neurotoxicity than the latter, coastal regions are home to the largest number at risk. High-end biomarkers across all categories indicate MeHg intake is in excess of the reference value. Conclusion There is a need for policies to reduce Hg exposure among women and infants and for surveillance in high-risk populations, the majority of which live in low-and middle-income countries. PMID:24700993

Global methylmercury exposure from seafood consumption and risk of developmental neurotoxicity: a systematic review.

PubMed

Sheehan, Mary C; Burke, Thomas A; Navas-Acien, Ana; Breysse, Patrick N; McGready, John; Fox, Mary A

2014-04-01

To examine biomarkers of methylmercury (MeHg) intake in women and infants from seafood-consuming populations globally and characterize the comparative risk of fetal developmental neurotoxicity. A search was conducted of the published literature reporting total mercury (Hg) in hair and blood in women and infants. These biomarkers are validated proxy measures of MeHg, a neurotoxin found primarily in seafood. Average and high-end biomarkers were extracted, stratified by seafood consumption context, and pooled by category. Medians for average and high-end pooled distributions were compared with the reference level established by a joint expert committee of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Health Organization (WHO). Selection criteria were met by 164 studies of women and infants from 43 countries. Pooled average biomarkers suggest an intake of MeHg several times over the FAO/WHO reference in fish-consuming riparians living near small-scale gold mining and well over the reference in consumers of marine mammals in Arctic regions. In coastal regions of south-eastern Asia, the western Pacific and the Mediterranean, average biomarkers approach the reference. Although the two former groups have a higher risk of neurotoxicity than the latter, coastal regions are home to the largest number at risk. High-end biomarkers across all categories indicate MeHg intake is in excess of the reference value. There is a need for policies to reduce Hg exposure among women and infants and for surveillance in high-risk populations, the majority of which live in low-and middle-income countries.

Variability in modeled cloud feedback tied to differences in the climatological spatial pattern of clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siler, Nicholas; Po-Chedley, Stephen; Bretherton, Christopher S.

2018-02-01

Despite the increasing sophistication of climate models, the amount of surface warming expected from a doubling of atmospheric CO_2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity) remains stubbornly uncertain, in part because of differences in how models simulate the change in global albedo due to clouds (the shortwave cloud feedback). Here, model differences in the shortwave cloud feedback are found to be closely related to the spatial pattern of the cloud contribution to albedo (α) in simulations of the current climate: high-feedback models exhibit lower (higher) α in regions of warm (cool) sea-surface temperatures, and therefore predict a larger reduction in global-mean α as temperatures rise and warm regions expand. The spatial pattern of α is found to be strongly predictive (r=0.84) of a model's global cloud feedback, with satellite observations indicating a most-likely value of 0.58± 0.31 Wm^{-2} K^{-1} (90% confidence). This estimate is higher than the model-average cloud feedback of 0.43 Wm^{-2} K^{-1}, with half the range of uncertainty. The observational constraint on climate sensitivity is weaker but still significant, suggesting a likely value of 3.68 ± 1.30 K (90% confidence), which also favors the upper range of model estimates. These results suggest that uncertainty in model estimates of the global cloud feedback may be substantially reduced by ensuring a realistic distribution of clouds between regions of warm and cool SSTs in simulations of the current climate.

Effects that different types of sports have on the hearts of children and adolescents and the value of two-dimensional strain-strain-rate echocardiography.

PubMed

Binnetoğlu, Fatih Köksal; Babaoğlu, Kadir; Altun, Gürkan; Kayabey, Özlem

2014-01-01

Whether the hypertrophy found in the hearts of athletes is physiologic or a risk factor for the progression of pathologic hypertrophy remains controversial. The diastolic and systolic functions of athletes with left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy usually are normal when measured by conventional methods. More precise assessment of global and regional myocardial function may be possible using a newly developed two-dimensional (2D) strain echocardiographic method. This study evaluated the effects that different types of sports have on the hearts of children and adolescents and compared the results of 2D strain and strain-rate echocardiographic techniques with conventional methods. Athletes from clubs for five different sports (basketball, swimming, football, wrestling, and tennis) who had practiced regularly at least 3 h per week during at least the previous 2 years were included in the study. The control group consisted of sedentary children and adolescents with no known cardiac or systemic diseases (n = 25). The athletes were grouped according to the type of exercise: dynamic (football, tennis), static (wrestling), or static and dynamic (basketball, swimming). Shortening fraction and ejection fraction values were within normal limits for the athletes in all the sports disciplines. Across all 140 athletes, LV geometry was normal in 58 athletes (41.4 %), whereas 22 athletes (15.7 %) had concentric remodeling, 20 (14.3 %) had concentric hypertrophy, and 40 (28.6 %) had eccentric hypertrophy. Global LV longitudinal strain values obtained from the average of apical four-, two-, and three-chamber global strain values were significantly lower for the basketball players than for all the other groups (p < 0.001).

Variability of ionospheric TEC during solar and geomagnetic minima (2008 and 2009): external high speed stream drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Tsurutani, B. T.; Mannucci, A. J.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Hunt, L. A.; Runge, T.

2013-02-01

We study solar wind-ionosphere coupling through the late declining phase/solar minimum and geomagnetic minimum phases during the last solar cycle (SC23) - 2008 and 2009. This interval was characterized by sequences of high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs). The concomitant geomagnetic response was moderate geomagnetic storms and high-intensity, long-duration continuous auroral activity (HILDCAA) events. The JPL Global Ionospheric Map (GIM) software and the GPS total electron content (TEC) database were used to calculate the vertical TEC (VTEC) and estimate daily averaged values in separate latitude and local time ranges. Our results show distinct low- and mid-latitude VTEC responses to HSSs during this interval, with the low-latitude daytime daily averaged values increasing by up to 33 TECU (annual average of ~20 TECU) near local noon (12:00 to 14:00 LT) in 2008. In 2009 during the minimum geomagnetic activity (MGA) interval, the response to HSSs was a maximum of ~30 TECU increases with a slightly lower average value than in 2008. There was a weak nighttime ionospheric response to the HSSs. A well-studied solar cycle declining phase interval, 10-22 October 2003, was analyzed for comparative purposes, with daytime low-latitude VTEC peak values of up to ~58 TECU (event average of ~55 TECU). The ionospheric VTEC changes during 2008-2009 were similar but ~60% less intense on average. There is an evidence of correlations of filtered daily averaged VTEC data with Ap index and solar wind speed. We use the infrared NO and CO2 emission data obtained with SABER on TIMED as a proxy for the radiation balance of the thermosphere. It is shown that infrared emissions increase during HSS events possibly due to increased energy input into the auroral region associated with HILDCAAs. The 2008-2009 HSS intervals were ~85% less intense than the 2003 early declining phase event, with annual averages of daily infrared NO emission power of ~ 3.3 × 1010 W and 2.7 × 1010 W in 2008 and 2009, respectively. The roles of disturbance dynamos caused by high-latitude winds (due to particle precipitation and Joule heating in the auroral zones) and of prompt penetrating electric fields (PPEFs) in the solar wind-ionosphere coupling during these intervals are discussed. A correlation between geoeffective interplanetary electric field components and HSS intervals is shown. Both PPEF and disturbance dynamo mechanisms could play important roles in solar wind-ionosphere coupling during prolonged (up to days) external driving within HILDCAA intervals.

Global Ocean Integrals and Means, with Trend Implications.

PubMed

Wunsch, Carl

2016-01-01

Understanding the ocean requires determining and explaining global integrals and equivalent average values of temperature (heat), salinity (freshwater and salt content), sea level, energy, and other properties. Attempts to determine means, integrals, and climatologies have been hindered by thinly and poorly distributed historical observations in a system in which both signals and background noise are spatially very inhomogeneous, leading to potentially large temporal bias errors that must be corrected at the 1% level or better. With the exception of the upper ocean in the current altimetric-Argo era, no clear documentation exists on the best methods for estimating means and their changes for quantities such as heat and freshwater at the levels required for anthropogenic signals. Underestimates of trends are as likely as overestimates; for example, recent inferences that multidecadal oceanic heat uptake has been greatly underestimated are plausible. For new or augmented observing systems, calculating the accuracies and precisions of global, multidecadal sampling densities for the full water column is necessary to avoid the irrecoverable loss of scientifically essential information.

Investigation of local evaporation flux and vapor-phase pressure at an evaporative droplet interface.

PubMed

Duan, Fei; Ward, C A

2009-07-07

In the steady-state experiments of water droplet evaporation, when the throat was heating at a stainless steel conical funnel, the interfacial liquid temperature was found to increase parabolically from the center line to the rim of the funnel with the global vapor-phase pressure at around 600 Pa. The energy conservation analysis at the interface indicates that the energy required for evaporation is maintained by thermal conduction to the interface from the liquid and vapor phases, thermocapillary convection at interface, and the viscous dissipation globally and locally. The local evaporation flux increases from the center line to the periphery as a result of multiple effects of energy transport at the interface. The local vapor-phase pressure predicted from statistical rate theory (SRT) is also found to increase monotonically toward the interface edge from the center line. However, the average value of the local vapor-phase pressures is in agreement with the measured global vapor-phase pressure within the measured error bar.

Global Model of Time-Modulated Electronegative Discharges for Neutral Radical and Electron Temperature Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Sungjin; Lieberman, M. A.; Lichtenberg, A. J.

2003-10-01

Control and reduction of neutral radical flux/ion flux ratio and electron temperature Te is required for next generation etching in the microelectronics industry. We investigate time-modulated power for these purposes using a volume-averaged (global) oxygen discharge model, We consider pressures of 10-50 mTorr and plasma densities of 10^10-10^11 cm-3. In this regime, the discharge is found to be weakly electronegative. The modulation period and the duty ratio (on-time/period) are varied to determine the optimum conditions for reduction of FR= O-atom flux/ion flux and T_e. Two chambers with different height/diameter ratios (<< 1, and unity) are examined to determine the influence of the surface-area/volume ratio. At a fixed duty ratio, both FR and Te are found to have minimum values as the pulse period is varied, with the minimum value decreasing as the duty ratio decreases. Significant reductions in FR and Te are found. Support provided by Lam Research, NSF Grant ECS-0139956, California industries, and UC-SMART Contract SM99-10051.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghosh, Subimal; Das, Debasish; Kao, Shih-Chieh

Recent studies disagree on how rainfall extremes over India have changed in space and time over the past half century, as well as on whether the changes observed are due to global warming or regional urbanization. Although a uniform and consistent decrease in moderate rainfall has been reported, a lack of agreement about trends in heavy rainfall may be due in part to differences in the characterization and spatial averaging of extremes. Here we use extreme value theory to examine trends in Indian rainfall over the past half century in the context of long-term, low-frequency variability.We show that when generalizedmore » extreme value theory is applied to annual maximum rainfall over India, no statistically significant spatially uniform trends are observed, in agreement with previous studies using different approaches. Furthermore, our space time regression analysis of the return levels points to increasing spatial variability of rainfall extremes over India. Our findings highlight the need for systematic examination of global versus regional drivers of trends in Indian rainfall extremes, and may help to inform flood hazard preparedness and water resource management in the region.« less

Three-dimensional elastic-plastic finite-element analyses of constraint variations in cracked bodies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, J. C., Jr.; Bigelow, C. A.; Shivakumar, K. N.

1993-01-01

Three-dimensional elastic-plastic (small-strain) finite-element analyses were used to study the stresses, deformations, and constraint variations around a straight-through crack in finite-thickness plates for an elastic-perfectly plastic material under monotonic and cyclic loading. Middle-crack tension specimens were analyzed for thicknesses ranging from 1.25 to 20 mm with various crack lengths. Three local constraint parameters, related to the normal, tangential, and hydrostatic stresses, showed similar variations along the crack front for a given thickness and applied stress level. Numerical analyses indicated that cyclic stress history and crack growth reduced the local constraint parameters in the interior of a plate, especially at high applied stress levels. A global constraint factor alpha(sub g) was defined to simulate three-dimensional effects in two-dimensional crack analyses. The global constraint factor was calculated as an average through-the-thickness value over the crack-front plastic region. Values of alpha(sub g) were found to be nearly independent of crack length and were related to the stress-intensity factor for a given thickness.

Seasonal air and water mass redistribution effects on LAGEOS and Starlette

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gutierrez, Roberto; Wilson, Clark R.

1987-01-01

Zonal geopotential coefficients have been computed from average seasonal variations in global air and water mass distribution. These coefficients are used to predict the seasonal variations of LAGEOS' and Starlette's orbital node, the node residual, and the seasonal variation in the 3rd degree zonal coefficient for Starlette. A comparison of these predictions with the observed values indicates that air pressure and, to a lesser extent, water storage may be responsible for a large portion of the currently unmodeled variation in the earth's gravity field.

The significance of cloud-radiative forcing to the general circulation on climate time scales - A satellite interpretation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sohn, Byung-Ju; Smith, Eric A.

1992-01-01

This paper focuses on the role of cloud- and surface-atmosphere forcing on the net radiation balance and their potential impact on the general circulation at climate time scales. The globally averaged cloud-forcing estimates and cloud sensitivity values taken from various recent studies are summarized. It is shown that the net radiative heating over the tropics is principally due to high clouds, while the net cooling in mid- and high latitudes is dominated by low and middle clouds.

Petrogenesis of low-δ18O quartz porphyry dykes, Koegel Fontein complex, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, Chris; Mulder, Kwenidyn; Sarkar, Saheli; Whitehead, Benjamin; Roopnarain, Sherissa

2018-04-01

This paper investigates the origin of low-δ18O quartz porphyry dykes associated with the 144-133 Ma Koegel Fontein Igneous Complex, which was intruded during the initial phase of breakup of Africa and South America. The 25-km diameter Rietpoort Granite is the largest and youngest phase of activity, and is roofed by a 10-km diameter pendant of gneiss. Quartz porphyry (QP) dykes, up to 15 m in width, strike NW-SE across the complex. The QP dykes that intruded outside the granite have similar quartz phenocryst δ18O values (average 8.0‰, ± 0.7, n = 33) to the granite (average 8.3 ± 1.0, n = 7). The QP dykes that intruded the roof pendant have quartz phenocrysts with more variable δ18O values (average 1.6‰, ± 2.1, n = 55). In some cases quartz phenocrysts have δ18O values as low as - 2.5‰. The variation in δ18O value within the quartz crystal population of individual dykes is small relative to the overall range, and core and rim material from individual quartz phenocrysts in three samples are identical within error. There is no evidence that quartz phenocryst δ18O values have been affected by fluid-rock interaction. Based on a Δquartz-magma value of 0.6‰, magma δ18O values must have been as low as - 3.1‰. Samples collected along the length of the two main QP dykes that traverse the roof pendant have quartz phenocryst δ18O values that range from + 1.1 to + 4.6‰, and - 2.3 to + 5.6‰, respectively. These δ18O values correlate negatively ( r = - 0.96) with initial 87Sr/86Sr, which can be explained by the event that lowered δ18O values of the source being older than the dykes. We suggest that the QP dykes were fed by magma produced by partial melting of gneiss, which had been variably altered at high temperature by 18O-depleted meteoric water during global glaciation at 550 Ma. The early melts had variable δ18O value but as melt pockets interconnected during melting, the δ18O values approached that of average gneiss. Variable quartz phenocryst δ18O values in the same dyke can be explained by vertical emplacement, at variable rates of ascent along the dyke. The lateral variation in quartz, and hence magma δ18O value at a particular point along a single dyke would depend on the rate of ascent of magma at that point along the dyke, and the `age' of the particular magma batch.

Implementation of bayesian model averaging on the weather data forecasting applications utilizing open weather map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmat, R. F.; Nasution, F. R.; Seniman; Syahputra, M. F.; Sitompul, O. S.

2018-02-01

Weather is condition of air in a certain region at a relatively short period of time, measured with various parameters such as; temperature, air preasure, wind velocity, humidity and another phenomenons in the atmosphere. In fact, extreme weather due to global warming would lead to drought, flood, hurricane and other forms of weather occasion, which directly affects social andeconomic activities. Hence, a forecasting technique is to predict weather with distinctive output, particullary mapping process based on GIS with information about current weather status in certain cordinates of each region with capability to forecast for seven days afterward. Data used in this research are retrieved in real time from the server openweathermap and BMKG. In order to obtain a low error rate and high accuracy of forecasting, the authors use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method. The result shows that the BMA method has good accuracy. Forecasting error value is calculated by mean square error shows (MSE). The error value emerges at minumum temperature rated at 0.28 and maximum temperature rated at 0.15. Meanwhile, the error value of minimum humidity rates at 0.38 and the error value of maximum humidity rates at 0.04. Afterall, the forecasting error rate of wind speed is at 0.076. The lower the forecasting error rate, the more optimized the accuracy is.

S-wave attenuation of the shallow sediments in the North China basin based on borehole seismograms of local earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Sheng; Li, Zhiwei

2018-06-01

S-wave velocity and attenuation structures of shallow sediments play important roles in accurate prediction of strong ground motion. However, it is more difficult to investigate the attenuation than velocity structures. In this study, we developed a new approach for estimating frequency-dependent S-wave attenuation (Q_S^{ - 1}) structures of shallow sediments based on multiple time window analysis of borehole seismograms from local earthquakes. Multiple time windows for separating direct and surface-reflected S-waves in local earthquake waveforms at borehole stations are selected with a global optimization scheme. With respect to different time windows, the transfer functions between direct and surface-reflected S-waves are achieved with a weighted averaging scheme, based on which frequency dependent Q_S^{ - 1} values are obtained. Synthetic tests suggest that the proposed method can restore robust and reliableQ_S^{ - 1} values, especially when the dataset of local earthquakes is not abundant. We utilize this method for local earthquake waveforms at 14 borehole seismic stations in the North China basin, and obtain Q_S^{ - 1} values in 2 ˜ 10 Hz frequency band, as well as average {V_P}, {V_S} and {V_P}/{{}}{V_S} ratio for shallow sediments deep to a few hundred meters. Results suggest that Q_S^{ - 1} values are to 0.01˜0.06, and generally decrease with frequency. The average attenuation structure of shallow sediments within the depth of a few hundred meters beneath 14 borehole stations in the North China basin can be modeled as Q_S^{ - 1} = 0.056{f^{ - 0.61}}. It is generally consistent with the attenuation structure of sedimentary basins in other areas, such as Mississippi Embayment sediments in the United States and Sendai basin in Japan.

Evaluation of Global Photosynthesis and BVOC Emission Covariance with Climate in NASA ModelE2-Y

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unger, N.

2012-12-01

Terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP), a measure of the total amount of CO2 removed from the atmosphere every year to fuel photosynthesis, is the largest global carbon flux. GPP is vital for human welfare as the basis for food and fiber, and provides the crucial ecosystem service of reducing the accumulation of fossil fuel CO2 in the atmosphere. Land plants emit a significant fraction of the assimilated carbon back to the atmosphere in the form of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). Isoprene is the dominant BVOC emission with an estimated global source of 200-660 TgC/yr. Global monoterpene emission estimates range from 30-130 TgC/yr. BVOC photochemical oxidation exerts a profound impact on the distribution and variability of the short-lived climate forcers: ozone, biogenic secondary organic aerosol and methane. Here, we apply multiple observational datasets from a suite of platforms to evaluate an updated global chemistry-climate model that is coupled to a new vegetation biophysics scheme incorporating photosynthesis-dependent BVOC emissions (NASA ModelE2-Y). A fixed vegetation structure dataset based on 8 plant functional types and prescribed phenology including crop planting and harvesting gives GPP of 128 PgC/yr and a global isoprene source of 200TgC/yr. The model GPP captures 85% of the annual average zonal mean variability in a FLUXNET-derived global dataset that was generated by data orientated diagnostic upscaling. We assess model BVOC emission climatology against a comprehensive database of campaign-average above canopy flux measurements and surface concentrations of isoprene and monoterpene collected between 1995-2010 across a wide range of ecosystem types, regions and seasons (> 25 flux estimates; > 22 surface concentration values). We evaluate the diurnal, seasonal and interannual integrity of the model BVOC variability against 9 sites for isoprene and 4 sites for monoterpene. The model captures ~60% of the variability in the time-dependent fluxes across a broad range of different ecosystem types. In tropical ecosystems, the model simulates the campaign-average diurnal cycle with remarkable fidelity (root-mean-square error = 0.20 mgC/m2/hr; normalized mean bias = -5%). The model underpredicts in broadleaf deciduous ecosystems in the United States and Europe. We probe the GPP and BVOC emission covariance with climate in tropical, temperate and boreal ecosystems, and the GPP-HCHO correlation using fire-free HCHO columns from OMI and SCIAMACHY 2005-2008.

Forecasting Kp from solar wind data: input parameter study using 3-hour averages and 3-hour range values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wintoft, Peter; Wik, Magnus; Matzka, Jürgen; Shprits, Yuri

2017-11-01

We have developed neural network models that predict Kp from upstream solar wind data. We study the importance of various input parameters, starting with the magnetic component Bz, particle density n, and velocity V and then adding total field B and the By component. As we also notice a seasonal and UT variation in average Kp we include functions of day-of-year and UT. Finally, as Kp is a global representation of the maximum range of geomagnetic variation over 3-hour UT intervals we conclude that sudden changes in the solar wind can have a big effect on Kp, even though it is a 3-hour value. Therefore, 3-hour solar wind averages will not always appropriately represent the solar wind condition, and we introduce 3-hour maxima and minima values to some degree address this problem. We find that introducing total field B and 3-hour maxima and minima, derived from 1-minute solar wind data, have a great influence on the performance. Due to the low number of samples for high Kp values there can be considerable variation in predicted Kp for different networks with similar validation errors. We address this issue by using an ensemble of networks from which we use the median predicted Kp. The models (ensemble of networks) provide prediction lead times in the range 20-90 min given by the time it takes a solar wind structure to travel from L1 to Earth. Two models are implemented that can be run with real time data: (1) IRF-Kp-2017-h3 uses the 3-hour averages of the solar wind data and (2) IRF-Kp-2017 uses in addition to the averages, also the minima and maxima values. The IRF-Kp-2017 model has RMS error of 0.55 and linear correlation of 0.92 based on an independent test set with final Kp covering 2 years using ACE Level 2 data. The IRF-Kp-2017-h3 model has RMSE = 0.63 and correlation = 0.89. We also explore the errors when tested on another two-year period with real-time ACE data which gives RMSE = 0.59 for IRF-Kp-2017 and RMSE = 0.73 for IRF-Kp-2017-h3. The errors as function of Kp and for different years are also studied.

Global and System-Specific Resting-State fMRI Fluctuations Are Uncorrelated: Principal Component Analysis Reveals Anti-Correlated Networks

PubMed Central

Carbonell, Felix; Bellec, Pierre

2011-01-01

Abstract The influence of the global average signal (GAS) on functional-magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI)–based resting-state functional connectivity is a matter of ongoing debate. The global average fluctuations increase the correlation between functional systems beyond the correlation that reflects their specific functional connectivity. Hence, removal of the GAS is a common practice for facilitating the observation of network-specific functional connectivity. This strategy relies on the implicit assumption of a linear-additive model according to which global fluctuations, irrespective of their origin, and network-specific fluctuations are super-positioned. However, removal of the GAS introduces spurious negative correlations between functional systems, bringing into question the validity of previous findings of negative correlations between fluctuations in the default-mode and the task-positive networks. Here we present an alternative method for estimating global fluctuations, immune to the complications associated with the GAS. Principal components analysis was applied to resting-state fMRI time-series. A global-signal effect estimator was defined as the principal component (PC) that correlated best with the GAS. The mean correlation coefficient between our proposed PC-based global effect estimator and the GAS was 0.97±0.05, demonstrating that our estimator successfully approximated the GAS. In 66 out of 68 runs, the PC that showed the highest correlation with the GAS was the first PC. Since PCs are orthogonal, our method provides an estimator of the global fluctuations, which is uncorrelated to the remaining, network-specific fluctuations. Moreover, unlike the regression of the GAS, the regression of the PC-based global effect estimator does not introduce spurious anti-correlations beyond the decrease in seed-based correlation values allowed by the assumed additive model. After regressing this PC-based estimator out of the original time-series, we observed robust anti-correlations between resting-state fluctuations in the default-mode and the task-positive networks. We conclude that resting-state global fluctuations and network-specific fluctuations are uncorrelated, supporting a Resting-State Linear-Additive Model. In addition, we conclude that the network-specific resting-state fluctuations of the default-mode and task-positive networks show artifact-free anti-correlations. PMID:22444074

The Sensitivity of Regional Precipitation to Global Temperature Change and Forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tebaldi, C.; O'Neill, B. C.; Lamarque, J. F.

2016-12-01

Global policies are most commonly formulated in terms of climate targets, like the much talked about 1.5° and 2°C warming thresholds identified as critical by the recent Paris agreements. But what does a target defined in terms of a globally averaged quantity mean in terms of expected regional changes? And, in particular, what should we expect in terms of significant changes in precipitation over specific regional domains for these and other incrementally different global goals? In this talk I will summarize the result of an analysis that aimed at characterizing the sensitivity of regional temperatures and precipitation amounts to changes in global average temperature. The analysis uses results from a multi-model ensemble (CMIP5), which allows us to address structural uncertainty in future projections, a type of uncertainty particularly relevant when considering precipitation changes. I will show what type of changes in global temperature and forcing levels bring about significant and pervasive changes in regional precipitation, contrasting its sensitivity to that of regional temperature changes. Because of the large internal variability of regional precipitation, I will show that significant changes in average regional precipitation can be detected only for fairly large separations (on the order of 2.5° or 3°C) in global average temperature levels, differently from the much higher sensitivity shown by regional temperatures.

Is Global Warming Accelerating?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, J.; Delsole, T. M.; Tippett, M. K.

2009-12-01

A global pattern that fluctuates naturally on decadal time scales is identified in climate simulations and observations. This newly discovered component, called the Global Multidecadal Oscillation (GMO), is related to the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation and shown to account for a substantial fraction of decadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature. IPCC-class climate models generally underestimate the variance of the GMO, and hence underestimate the decadal fluctuations due to this component of natural variability. Decomposing observed sea surface temperature into a component due to anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing plus the GMO, reveals that most multidecadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature can be accounted for by these two components alone. The fact that the GMO varies naturally on multidecadal time scales implies that it can be predicted with some skill on decadal time scales, which provides a scientific rationale for decadal predictions. Furthermore, the GMO is shown to account for about half of the warming in the last 25 years and hence a substantial fraction of the recent acceleration in the rate of increase in global average sea surface temperature. Nevertheless, in terms of the global average “well-observed” sea surface temperature, the GMO can account for only about 0.1° C in transient, decadal-scale fluctuations, not the century-long 1° C warming that has been observed during the twentieth century.

Pore fluids and the LGM ocean salinity-Reconsidered

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wunsch, Carl

2016-03-01

Pore fluid chlorinity/salinity data from deep-sea cores related to the salinity maximum of the last glacial maximum (LGM) are analyzed using estimation methods deriving from linear control theory. With conventional diffusion coefficient values and no vertical advection, results show a very strong dependence upon initial conditions at -100 ky. Earlier inferences that the abyssal Southern Ocean was strongly salt-stratified in the LGM with a relatively fresh North Atlantic Ocean are found to be consistent within uncertainties of the salinity determination, which remain of order ±1 g/kg. However, an LGM Southern Ocean abyss with an important relative excess of salt is an assumption, one not required by existing core data. None of the present results show statistically significant abyssal salinity values above the global average, and results remain consistent, apart from a general increase owing to diminished sea level, with a more conventional salinity distribution having deep values lower than the global mean. The Southern Ocean core does show a higher salinity than the North Atlantic one on the Bermuda Rise at different water depths. Although much more sophisticated models of the pore-fluid salinity can be used, they will only increase the resulting uncertainties, unless considerably more data can be obtained. Results are consistent with complex regional variations in abyssal salinity during deglaciation, but none are statistically significant.

Magnetic resonance imaging DTI-FT study on schizophrenic patients with typical negative first symptoms.

PubMed

Gu, Chengyu; Zhang, Ying; Wei, Fuquan; Cheng, Yougen; Cao, Yulin; Hou, Hongtao

2016-09-01

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with diffusion-tensor imaging (DTI) together with a white matter fiber tracking (FT) technique was used to assess different brain white matter structures and functionalities in schizophrenic patients with typical first negative symptoms. In total, 30 schizophrenic patients with typical first negative symptoms, comprising an observation group were paired 1:1 according to gender, age, right-handedness, and education, with 30 healthy individuals in a control group. Individuals in each group underwent routine MRI and DTI examination of the brain, and diffusion-tensor tractography (DTT) data were obtained through whole brain analysis based on voxel and tractography. The results were expressed by fractional anisotropy (FA) values. The schizophrenic patients were evaluated using a positive and negative symptom scale (PANSS) as well as a Global Assessment Scale (GAS). The results of the study showed that routine MRIs identified no differences between the two groups. However, compared with the control group, the FA values obtained by DTT from the deep left prefrontal cortex, the right deep temporal lobe, the white matter of the inferior frontal gyrus and part of the corpus callosum were significantly lower in the observation group (P<0.05). The PANSS positive scale value in the observation group averaged 7.7±1.5, and the negative scale averaged 46.6±5.9, while the general psychopathology scale averaged 65.4±10.3, and GAS averaged 53.8±19.2. The Pearson statistical analysis, the left deep prefrontal cortex, the right deep temporal lobe, the white matter of the inferior frontal gyrus and the FA value of part of the corpus callosum in the observation group was negatively correlated with the negative scale (P<0.05), and positively correlated with GAS (P<0.05). In conclusion, a decrease in the FA values of the left deep prefrontal cortex, the right deep temporal lobe, the white matter of the inferior frontal gyrus and part of the corpus callosum may be associated with schizophrenia with typical first negative symptoms and the application of MRI DTI-FT can improve diagnostic accuracy.

Global Reference Atmospheric Model and Trace Constituents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C.; Johnson, D.; Parker, Nelson C. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM-99) is an engineering-level model of the Earth's atmosphere. It provides both mean values and perturbations for density, temperature, pressure, and winds, as well as monthly- and geographically-varying trace constituent concentrations. From 0-27 km, thermodynamics and winds are based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Upper Air Climatic Atlas (GUACA) climatology. Above 120 km, GRAM is based on the NASA Marshall Engineering Thermosphere (MET) model. In the intervening altitude region, GRAM is based on Middle Atmosphere Program (MAP) climatology that also forms the basis of the 1986 COSPAR Intemationa1 Reference Atmosphere (CIRA). MAP data in GRAM are augmented by a specially-derived longitude variation climatology. Atmospheric composition is represented in GRAM by concentrations of both major and minor species. Above 120 km, MET provides concentration values for N2, O2, Ar, O, He, and H. Below 120 km, species represented also include H2O, O3, N2O, CO, CH, and CO2. Water vapor in GRAM is based on a combination of GUACA, Air Force Geophysics Laboratory (AFGL), and NASA Langley Research Center climatologies. Other constituents below 120 km are based on a combination of AFGL and h4AP/CIRA climatologies. This report presents results of comparisons between GRAM Constituent concentrations and those provided by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) climatology of Summers (NRL,/MR/7641-93-7416, 1993). GRAM and NRL concentrations were compared for seven species (CH4, CO, CO2, H2O, N2O, O2, and O3) for months January, April, July, and October, over height range 0-115 km, and latitudes -90deg to + 90deg at 10deg increments. Average GRAM-NRL correlations range from 0.878 (for CO) to 0.975 (for O3), with an average over all seven species of 0.936 (standard deviation 0.049).

Global increasing of mean sea level and erroneous treatment of a role of thermal factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkin, Yu. V.

2009-04-01

Satellite methods of studies of the ocean surface - methods of altimetry - have been obtained intensive development in the last decades (since 1993). However, altimetry studies with the help of special satellites such as TOPEX-Poseidon not only have not cleared up understanding of the phenomenon of increase of sea level (SLR), but have even more confused and without that a complex question on the reasons of increase of sea level. Appeared, that classical determinations of average velocity of increase of sea level on coastal observations (1.4-1.7 mm / yr) approximately for 0.8-1.0 mm / yr it is less, rather than by modern satellite determinations of satellites TOPEX - Poseidon etc. (2.5 - 2.8 mm / yr). On the basis of the data of altimetry observations of TOPEX-Poseidon and Jason for the period 1993-2003 for geocentric velocity of increase of sea level (of global ocean) the value 2.8+/-0.4 mm / yr [1] has been obtained. In the given report the full answer is actually is given to a question put by leading experts on research of the sea level: "The TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason satellite altimeter missions provided a 12 year record of sea level change, which show increase of global mean sea level of 2.8+/-0.4 mm/yr, with considerable geographic variation. An important question for climate studies is to determine the cause of this change - specifically how much of the change is due to steric (heating) versus eustatic (runoff, melting ice, etc.) contribution?" [1]. There is, a big value of average velocity of increase of the sea level on the satellite data, it is possible to explain only by kinematical effect in data of observations. The motion of the satellite "is concerned" to the centre of mass of our planet, and its position is determined by a geocentric radius - vector. Therefore northern drift of the centre of mass in the Earth body [2] as though results in reduction of distances from the satellite up to the sea surface in the southern hemisphere and to their reduction in the northern hemisphere. At averaging of measurements over all ocean surface (mainly located in a southern hemisphere where it occupies about 80 % of the areas) there will be an effect of apparent additional increase of the sea level. Therefore this ("apparent") velocity of increase of the sea level accepts the greater value (about 2.4 mm / year) in comparison with coastal determinations of this velocity that is rather close to the data of satellite observations. The additional effect in increase of the sea level is brought by deformation of the ocean bottom. The both mentioned phenomena: the secular drift of the center of mass of the Earth and the secular expansion of southern hemisphere of the Earth have been predicted by author [2], [3] and have obtained confirmations by space geodesy methods. The offered explanation has the extremely - important value for studying a possible role of thermal and climatic factors which can not apply any more for a big component attributed to it in change of the sea level. The account of fictitious component of this velocity results practically in real value of variation of the average sea level about 1.3-1.6 mm / yr, that completely coordinate positions of researchers of ocean by coastal and altimetry (satellite) methods. Moreover, the given work opens a direct opportunity for an explanation of increase of the sea level as result of deformation of the ocean bottom. This deformation is a major factor of change of the average sea level. Water superseded in a southern hemisphere gives the significant contribution to observably value of velocity of sea level rise up to 0.8-1.2 mm / yr [3, 4]. The work fulfilled at financial support of Russian projects of RFBR: N 07-05-00939 and N 06-02-16665. This abstract (without what or changes) has been accepted to EGU GA 2008 Session IS48 "75th Anniversary of the PSML"(Convener: Woodworth P.) but was not included in its program. References. [1] Nerem R.S., Leuliette E.W., Chambers D.P. (2005) An Integrated Study of Sea Level Change Using Altimetry, Gravity, and In Situ Measurements. Geophys. Res. Abstr., Vol. 7, 09831, Sref-ID: 1607-7962/gra/EGU05-A-09831. [2] Barkin, Yu.V. (1995) About Geocenter Motion Due to Global Changes of Its Dynamical Structure and Tidal Deformations. Vestn. Mosk. Un-ta. Fiz., Astron., Vol. 36, № 5, pp. 99-101 (in Russian). [3] Barkin Yu.V. (2007) Mechanisms of increase of mean sea level and solution of "attribution problem". "Geology of seas and oceans: Materials of XVII International scientific conference (scool) on mariner geology". V. IV. M.: GEOS. 2007. p. 21-23. [4] Barkin Yu.V. (2007) Global increase of mean sea level and erroneous treatment of a role of thermal factors. "Geology of seas and oceans: Materials of XVII International scientific conference (scool) on mariner geology". V. IV. M.: GEOS. 2007. p. 18-20.

Evidence That Nitric Acid Increases Relative Humidity in Low-Temperature Cirrus Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gao, R. S.; Popp, P. J.; Fahey, D. W.; Marcy, T. P.; Herman, R. L.; Weinstock, E. M.; Baumgardner, D. G.; Garrett, T. J.; Rosenlof, K. H.; Thompson, T. L.

2004-01-01

In situ measurements of the relative humidity with respect to ice (RH(sub(i)) and of nitric acid (HNO3) were made in both natural and contrail cirrus clouds in the upper troposphere. At temperatures lower than 202 kelvin, RH(sub i) values show a sharp increase to average values of over 130% in both cloud types. These enhanced RH(sub i) values are attributed to the presence of a new class of NHO3- containing ice particles (Delta-ice). We propose that surface HNO3 molecules prevent the ice/vapor system from reaching equilibrium by a mechanism similar to that of freezing point depression by antifreeze proteins. Delta-ice represents a new link between global climate and natural and anthropogenic nitrogen oxide emissions. Including Delta-ice in climate models will alter simulated cirrus properties and the distribution of upper tropospheric water vapor.

Calcium and magnesium isotope systematics in rivers draining the Himalaya-Tibetan-Plateau region: Lithological or fractionation control?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tipper, Edward T.; Galy, Albert; Bickle, Mike J.

2008-02-01

In rivers draining the Himalaya-Tibetan-Plateau region, the 26Mg/ 24Mg ratio has a range of 2‰ and the 44Ca/ 42Ca ratio has a range of 0.6‰. The average δ26Mg values of tributaries from each of the main lithotectonic units (Tethyan Sedimentary Series (TSS), High Himalayan Crystalline Series (HHCS) and Lesser Himalayan Series (LHS)) are within 2 standard deviation analytical uncertainty (0.14‰). The consistency of average riverine δ26Mg values is in contrast to the main rock types (limestone, dolostone and silicate) which range in their average δ26Mg values by more than 2‰. Tributaries draining the dolostones of the LHS differ in their δ44Ca values compared to tributaries from the TSS and HHCS. The chemistry of these river waters is strongly influenced by dolostone (solute Mg/Ca close to unity) and both δ26Mg (-1.31‰) and δ44Ca (0.64‰) values are within analytical uncertainty of the LHS dolostone. These are the most elevated δ44Ca values in rivers and rock reported so far demonstrating that both riverine and bedrock δ44Ca values may show greater variability than previously thought. Although rivers draining TSS limestone have the lowest δ26Mgandδ44Ca values at -1.41 and 0.42‰, respectively, both are offset to higher values compared to bedrock TSS limestone. The average δ26Mg value of rivers draining mainly silicate rock of the HHCS is -1.25‰, lower by 0.63‰ than the average silicate rock. These differences are consistent with a fractionation of δ26Mg values during silicate weathering. Given that the proportion of Mg exported from the Himalaya as solute Mg is small, the difference in 26Mg/ 24Mg ratios between silicate rock and solute Mg reflects the 26Mg/ 24Mg isotopic fractionation factor ( αsilicate-dissolvedMg) between silicate and dissolved Mg during incongruent silicate weathering. The value of αsilicate-dissolvedMg of 0.99937 implies that in the TSS, solute Mg is primarily derived from silicate weathering, whereas the source of Ca is overwhelmingly derived from carbonate weathering. The average δ44Ca value in HHCS rivers is within uncertainty of silicate rock at 0.39‰. The widespread hot springs of the High Himalaya have an average δ26Mg value of -0.46‰ and an average δ44Ca value of 0.5‰, distinct from riverine values for δ26Mg but similar to riverine δ44Ca values. Although rivers draining each major rock type have δ44Ca and δ26Mg values in part inherited from bedrock, there is no correlation with proxies for carbonate or silicate lithology such as Na/Ca ratios, suggesting that Ca and Mg are in part recycled. However, in spite of the vast contrast in vegetation density between the arid Tibetan Plateau and the tropical Lesser Himalaya, the isotopic fractionation factor for Ca and Mg between solute and rocks are not systematically different suggesting that vegetation may only recycle a small amount of Ca and Mg in these catchments. The discrepancy between solute and solid Ca and Mg isotope ratios in these rivers from diverse weathering environments highlight our lack of understanding concerning the origin and subsequent path of Ca and Mg, bound as minerals in rock, and released as cations in rivers. The fractionation of Ca and Mg isotope ratios may prove useful for tracing mechanisms of chemical alteration. Ca isotope ratios of solute riverine Ca show a greater variability than previously acknowledged. The variability of Ca isotope ratios in modern rivers will need to be better quantified and accounted for in future models of global Ca cycling, if past variations in oceanic Ca isotope ratios are to be of use in constraining the past carbon cycle.

Atmospheric Diabatic Heating in Different Weather States and the General Circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rossow, William B.; Zhang, Yuanchong; Tselioudis, George

2016-01-01

Analysis of multiple global satellite products identifies distinctive weather states of the atmosphere from the mesoscale pattern of cloud properties and quantifies the associated diabatic heating/cooling by radiative flux divergence, precipitation, and surface sensible heat flux. The results show that the forcing for the atmospheric general circulation is a very dynamic process, varying strongly at weather space-time scales, comprising relatively infrequent, strong heating events by ''stormy'' weather and more nearly continuous, weak cooling by ''fair'' weather. Such behavior undercuts the value of analyses of time-averaged energy exchanges in observations or numerical models. It is proposed that an analysis of the joint time-related variations of the global weather states and the general circulation on weather space-time scales might be used to establish useful ''feedback like'' relationships between cloud processes and the large-scale circulation.

Effect of local and global geomagnetic activity on human cardiovascular homeostasis.

PubMed

Dimitrova, Svetla; Stoilova, Irina; Yanev, Toni; Cholakov, Ilia

2004-02-01

The authors investigated the effects of local and planetary geomagnetic activity on human physiology. They collected data in Sofia, Bulgaria, from a group of 86 volunteers during the periods of the autumnal and vernal equinoxes. They used the factors local/planetary geomagnetic activity, day of measurement, gender, and medication use to apply a four-factor multiple analysis of variance. They also used a post hoc analysis to establish the statistical significance of the differences between the average values of the measured physiological parameters in the separate factor levels. In addition, the authors performed correlation analysis between the physiological parameters examined and geophysical factors. The results revealed that geomagnetic changes had a statistically significant influence on arterial blood pressure. Participants expressed this reaction with weak local geomagnetic changes and when major and severe global geomagnetic storms took place.

Seasonal Surface Loading Helps Constrain Short-Term Viscosity of the Asthenosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, Peter J.

2018-03-01

Earth materials may display a range of rheological behaviors at different depths and over different timescales. The situation is particularly complex for postseismic relaxation in the uppermost mantle and lower crust, where it can be difficult to distinguish widespread viscous behavior from earthquake afterslip or localized deformation in shear zones over timescales of weeks to decades. By analyzing geodetic observations of seasonal surface mass loads and Earth's surface deformation in response, Chanard et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076451) have established a globally averaged lower bound of 5 × 1017 Pa s for the transient viscosity of a Burgers-rheology asthenosphere. This implies that lower viscosities inferred by some studies of postseismic relaxation must result from local departures from this global value, or be an artifact of additional afterslip or shear zone deformation.

aerosol radiative effects and forcing: spatial and temporal distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinne, Stefan

2014-05-01

A monthly climatology for aerosol optical properties based on a synthesis from global modeling and observational data has been applied to illustrate spatial distributions and global averages of aerosol radiative impacts. With the help of a pre-industrial reference for aerosol optical properties from global modeling, also the aerosol direct forcing (ca -0.35W/m2 globally and annual averaged) and their spatial and seasonal distributions and contributions by individual aerosol components are estimated. Finally, CCN and IN concentrations associated with this climatology are applied to estimate aerosol indirect effects and forcing.

A Relationship Between Visible and Near-IR Global Spectral Reflectance based on DSCOVR/EPIC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, G.; Marshak, A.; Song, W.; Knyazikhin, Y.

2017-12-01

The launch of Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) to the Earth's first Lagrange point (L1) allows us to see a new perspective of the Earth. The Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) on the DSCOVR measures the back scattered radiation of the entire sunlit side of the Earth at 10 narrow band wavelengths ranging from ultraviolet to visible and near-infrared. We analyzed EPIC global averaged reflectance data. We found that the global averaged visible reflectance has a unique non-linear relationship with near infrared (NIR) reflectance. This non-linear relationship was not observed by any other satellite observations due to a limited spatial and temporal coverage of either low earth orbit (LEO) or geostationary satellite. The non-linear relationship is associated with the changing in the coverages of ocean, cloud, land, and vegetation as the Earth rotates. We used Terra and Aqua MODIS daily global radiance data to simulate EPIC observations. Since MODIS samples the Earth in a limited swath (2330km cross track) at a specific local time (10:30 am for Terra, 1:30 pm for Aqua) with approximately 15 orbits per day, the global average reflectance at a given time may be approximated by averaging the reflectance in the MODIS nearest-time swaths in the sunlit hemisphere. We found that MODIS simulated global visible and NIR spectral reflectance captured the major feature of the EPIC observed non-linear relationship with some errors. The difference between the two is mainly due to the sampling limitation of polar satellite. This suggests that that EPIC observations can be used to reconstruct MODIS global average reflectance time series for studying Earth system change in the past decade.

Occurrence of Deoxynivalenol and Zearalenone in Commercial Fish Feed: An Initial Study

PubMed Central

Pietsch, Constanze; Kersten, Susanne; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia; Valenta, Hana; Dänicke, Sven

2013-01-01

The control of mycotoxins is a global challenge not only in human consumption but also in nutrition of farm animals including aquatic species. Fusarium toxins, such as deoxynivalenol (DON) and zearalenone (ZEN), are common contaminants of animal feed but no study reported the occurrence of both mycotoxins in fish feed so far. Here, we report for the first time the occurrence of DON and ZEN in samples of commercial fish feed designed for nutrition of cyprinids collected from central Europe. A maximal DON concentration of 825 μg kg−1 feed was found in one feed whereas average values of 289 μg kg−1 feed were noted. ZEN was the more prevalent mycotoxin but the concentrations were lower showing an average level of 67.9 μg kg−1 feed. PMID:23325300

The natural greenhouse effect of atmospheric oxygen (O2) and nitrogen (N2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höpfner, M.; Milz, M.; Buehler, S.; Orphal, J.; Stiller, G.

2012-05-01

The effect of collision-induced absorption by molecular oxygen (O2) and nitrogen (N2) on the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) of the Earth's atmosphere has been quantified. We have found that on global average under clear-sky conditions the OLR is reduced due to O2 by 0.11 Wm-2 and due to N2 by 0.17 Wm-2. Together this amounts to 15% of the OLR-reduction caused by CH4 at present atmospheric concentrations. Over Antarctica the combined effect of O2 and N2 increases on average to about 38% of CH4 with single values reaching up to 80%. This is explained by less interference of H2O spectral bands on the absorption features of O2 and N2 for dry atmospheric conditions.

Collision and radiative processes in emission of atmospheric carbon dioxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smirnov, B. M.

2018-05-01

The peculiarities of the spectroscopic properties of CO2 molecules in air due to vibration-rotation radiative transitions are analyzed. The absorption coefficient due to atmospheric carbon dioxide and other atmospheric components is constructed within the framework of the standard atmosphere model, on the basis of classical molecular spectroscopy and the regular model for the spectroscopy absorption band. The radiative flux from the atmosphere toward the Earth is represented as that of a blackbody, and the radiative temperature for emission at a given frequency is determined with accounting for the local thermodynamic equilibrium, a small gradient of the tropospheric temperature and a high optical thickness of the troposphere for infrared radiation. The absorption band model with an absorption coefficient averaged over the frequency and line-by-line model are used for evaluating the radiative flux from the atmosphere to the Earth which values are nearby for these models and are equal W m‑2 for the contemporary concentration of atmospheric CO2 molecules and W m‑2 at its doubled value. The absorption band model is not suitable to calculate the radiative flux change at doubling of carbon dioxide concentration because averaging over oscillations decreases the range where the atmospheric optical thickness is of the order of one, and just this range determines this change. The line-by-line method gives the change of the global temperature K as a result of doubling the carbon dioxide concentration. The contribution to the global temperature change due to anthropogenic injection of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, i.e. resulted from combustion of fossil fuels, is approximately 0.02 K now.

The seesaw space, a vector space to identify and characterize large-scale structures at 1 AU

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lara, A.; Niembro, T.

2017-12-01

We introduce the seesaw space, an orthonormal space formed by the local and the global fluctuations of any of the four basic solar parameters: velocity, density, magnetic field and temperature at any heliospheric distance. The fluctuations compare the standard deviation of a moving average of three hours against the running average of the parameter in a month (consider as the local fluctuations) and in a year (global fluctuations) We created this new vectorial spaces to identify the arrival of transients to any spacecraft without the need of an observer. We applied our method to the one-minute resolution data of WIND spacecraft from 1996 to 2016. To study the behavior of the seesaw norms in terms of the solar cycle, we computed annual histograms and fixed piecewise functions formed by two log-normal distributions and observed that one of the distributions is due to large-scale structures while the other to the ambient solar wind. The norm values in which the piecewise functions change vary in terms of the solar cycle. We compared the seesaw norms of each of the basic parameters due to the arrival of coronal mass ejections, co-rotating interaction regions and sector boundaries reported in literature. High seesaw norms are due to large-scale structures. We found three critical values of the norms that can be used to determined the arrival of coronal mass ejections. We present as well general comparisons of the norms during the two maxima and the minimum solar cycle periods and the differences of the norms due to large-scale structures depending on each period.

Mars-GRAM Applications for Mars Science Laboratory Mission Site Selection Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justh, Hilary; Justus, C. G.

2007-01-01

An overview is presented of the Mars-Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2005) and its new features. One important new feature is the "auxiliary profile" option, whereby a simple input file is used to replace mean atmospheric values from Mars-GRAM's conventional (General Circulation Model) climatology. An auxiliary profile can be generated from any source of data or alternate model output. Results are presented using auxiliary profiles produced from mesoscale model output (Southwest Research Institute's Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS) model and Oregon State University's Mars mesoscale model (MMM5) model) for three candidate Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) landing sites (Terby Crater, Melas Chasma, and Gale Crater). A global Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) database has also been generated for purposes of making 'Mars-GRAM auxiliary profiles. This data base contains averages and standard deviations of temperature, density, and thermal wind components, averaged over 5-by-5 degree latitude bins and 15 degree L(sub S) bins, for each of three Mars years of TES nadir data. Comparisons show reasonably good consistency between Mars-GRAM with low dust optical depth and both TES observed and mesoscale model simulated density at the three study sites. Mean winds differ by a more significant degree. Comparisons of mesoscale and TES standard deviations' with conventional Mars-GRAM values, show that Mars-GRAM density perturbations are somewhat conservative (larger than observed variability), while mesoscale-modeled wind variations are larger than Mars-GRAM model estimates. Input parameters rpscale (for density perturbations) and rwscale (for wind perturbations) can be used to "recalibrate" Mars-GRAM perturbation magnitudes to better replicate observed or mesoscale model variability.

Estimating the urban bias of surface shelter temperatures using upper-air and satellite data. Part 2: Estimation of the urban bias

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Epperson, David L.; Davis, Jerry M.; Bloomfield, Peter; Karl, Thomas R.; Mcnab, Alan L.; Gallo, Kevin P.

1995-01-01

A methodology is presented for estimating the urban bias of surface shelter temperatures due to the effect of the urban heat island. Multiple regression techniques were used to predict surface shelter temperatures based on the time period 1986-89 using upper-air data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to represent the background climate, site-specific data to represent the local landscape, and satellite-derived data -- the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) nighttime brightness data -- to represent the urban and rural landscape. Local NDVI and DMSP values were calculated for each station using the mean NDVI and DMSP values from a 3 km x 3 km area centered over the given station. Regional NDVI and DMSP values were calculated to represent a typical rural value for each station using the mean NDVI and DMSP values from a 1 deg x 1 deg latitude-longitude area in which the given station was located. Models for the United States were then developed for monthly maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures using data from over 1000 stations in the U.S. Cooperative (COOP) Network and for monthly mean temperatures with data from over 1150 stations in the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN). Local biases, or the differences between the model predictions using the observed NDVI and DMSP values, and the predictions using the background regional values were calculated and compared with the results of other research. The local or urban bias of U.S. temperatures, as derived from all U.S. stations (urban and rural) used in the models, averaged near 0.40 C for monthly minimum temperatures, near 0.25 C for monthly mean temperatures, and near 0.10 C for monthly maximum temperatures. The biases of monthly minimum temperatures for individual stations ranged from near -1.1 C for rural stations to 2.4 C for stations from the largest urban areas. The results of this study indicate minimal problems for global application once global NDVI and DMSP data become available.

75 FR 41556 - Proposed Collection Renewal; Correction

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-16

... global education in the classroom. Estimated annual number of respondents: 300. Estimated average time to... the annual World Wise Schools Conference. The information is used as a record of attendance. 2. Title... global education in the classroom. Estimated annual number of responses: 300. Estimated average time to...

Selenium Characterization in the Global Rice Supply Chain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Paul N.; Lombi, Enzo; Sun, Guo-Xin

2009-08-13

For up to 1 billion people worldwide, insufficient dietary intake of selenium (Se) is a serious health constraint. Cereals are the dominant Se source for those on low protein diets, as typified by the global malnourished population. With crop Se content constrained largely by underlying geology, regional soil Se variations are often mirrored by their locally grown staples. Despite this, the Se concentrations of much of the world's rice, the mainstay of so many, is poorly characterized, for both total Se content and Se speciation. In this study, 1092 samples of market sourced polished rice were obtained. The sampled ricemore » encompassed dominant rice producing and exporting countries. Rice from the U.S. and India were found to be the most enriched, while mean average levels were lowest in Egyptian rice: {approx}32-fold less than their North American equivalents. By weighting country averages by contribution to either global production or export, modeled baseline values for both were produced. Based on a daily rice consumption of 300 g day{sup -1}, around 75% of the grains from the production and export pools would fail to provide 70% of daily recommended Se intakes. Furthermore, Se localization and speciation characterization using X-ray fluorescence ({mu}-XRF) and X-ray absorption near edge structure ({mu}-XANES) techniques were investigated in a Se-rich sample. The results revealed that the large majority of Se in the endosperm was present in organic forms.« less

Environmental-Impact Assessment of Natural Radioactivity Around a Traditional Mining Area in Al-Ibedia, Sudan.

PubMed

Idriss, Hajo; Salih, Isam; Alaamer, Abdulaziz S; Saleh, Almuaiz; Abdelgali, M Y

2016-05-01

Recently, in the Sudan, traditional gold mining has been growing rapidly and has become a very attractive and popular economic activity. Mining activity is recognized as one of the sources of radioactivity contamination. Hence, the radioactivity concentration and radiological hazard due to exposure of radionuclides (226)Ra, (232)Th, and (40)K were evaluated. The measurements were performed using gamma-ray spectrometry with an NaI (Tl) detector. The results show that (226)Ra, (232)Th, and (40)K activity concentration ranged from 2.66 to 18.47, 9.20 to 51.87, and 0.17 to 419.77 Bq/kg with average values of 7.54 ± 4.91, 20.74 ± 11.29, and 111.87 ± 136.84 Bq/kg, respectively. In contrast, (222)Rn in soil, (222)Rn in air, and (226)Ra in vegetables along with radiation dose were computed and compared with the international recommended levels. Potential radiological effects to miners and the public due to (226)Ra, (232)Th, (40)K, and (222)Rn are insignificant. (226)Ra transferred to vegetables appears to be negligible compared with the allowable limit 1.0 mSv/year set by United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). The average value of the annual gonadal dose equivalent (AGDE) is lower than the global average of 300 µSv/year (UNSCEAR 2000). However, some locations exhibit values >300 µSv/year. To the best of our knowledge, so far there seems to be no data regarding radioactivity monitoring in traditional mining areas in the Sudan.

Random Forests for Global and Regional Crop Yield Predictions.

PubMed

Jeong, Jig Han; Resop, Jonathan P; Mueller, Nathaniel D; Fleisher, David H; Yun, Kyungdahm; Butler, Ethan E; Timlin, Dennis J; Shim, Kyo-Moon; Gerber, James S; Reddy, Vangimalla R; Kim, Soo-Hyung

2016-01-01

Accurate predictions of crop yield are critical for developing effective agricultural and food policies at the regional and global scales. We evaluated a machine-learning method, Random Forests (RF), for its ability to predict crop yield responses to climate and biophysical variables at global and regional scales in wheat, maize, and potato in comparison with multiple linear regressions (MLR) serving as a benchmark. We used crop yield data from various sources and regions for model training and testing: 1) gridded global wheat grain yield, 2) maize grain yield from US counties over thirty years, and 3) potato tuber and maize silage yield from the northeastern seaboard region. RF was found highly capable of predicting crop yields and outperformed MLR benchmarks in all performance statistics that were compared. For example, the root mean square errors (RMSE) ranged between 6 and 14% of the average observed yield with RF models in all test cases whereas these values ranged from 14% to 49% for MLR models. Our results show that RF is an effective and versatile machine-learning method for crop yield predictions at regional and global scales for its high accuracy and precision, ease of use, and utility in data analysis. RF may result in a loss of accuracy when predicting the extreme ends or responses beyond the boundaries of the training data.

Biogeochemical Mg cycle in the Barton Peninsula, King George Island, West Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, H. B.; Ryu, J. S.; Lee, J.; Lim, H. S.; Yoon, H.

2016-12-01

Understanding of biogeochemical Mg cycle is important in terms of plant growth as well as global climate because Mg participates in numerous biogeochemical processes. Here, we collected rock, soil, water and moss samples in the Barton peninsula, King George Island, West Antarctica, and measured their elemental and Mg isotope compositions in order to quantify and understand the biogeochemical processes of the Mg cycle. Elemental results show that the input of seawater derived Mg mainly controls dissolved Mg in meltwater. Mg isotope compositions in rocks and soils are consistent within the error, -0.03 ± 0.15‰ (n=6) and +0.03 ± 0.07‰ (n=8), respectively. However, δ26Mg values of meltwater and moss are -0.69 ± 0.09‰ (n=34) and -0.46 ± 0.19‰ (n=16), respectively, indicating that mosses display higher δ26Mg values compared to meltwater they uptake. This implies an isotope fractionation in favor of heavy isotopes during moss growth. The apparent Mg isotope fractionation between moss and meltwater (Δ26Mgmoss-meltwater) ranges from 0.02‰ to 0.55‰, with an average of +0.29‰ (n=6), which is within the range previously reported during higher plant growth. Our finding suggests that enhanced plant growth in Arctic and Antarctica due to climate change and global warming may play an important role in the biogeochemical Mg cycle globally.

Disaggregating measurement uncertainty from population variability and Bayesian treatment of uncensored results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Strom, Daniel J.; Joyce, Kevin E.; Maclellan, Jay A.

2012-04-17

In making low-level radioactivity measurements of populations, it is commonly observed that a substantial portion of net results are negative. Furthermore, the observed variance of the measurement results arises from a combination of measurement uncertainty and population variability. This paper presents a method for disaggregating measurement uncertainty from population variability to produce a probability density function (PDF) of possibly true results. To do this, simple, justifiable, and reasonable assumptions are made about the relationship of the measurements to the measurands (the 'true values'). The measurements are assumed to be unbiased, that is, that their average value is the average ofmore » the measurands. Using traditional estimates of each measurement's uncertainty to disaggregate population variability from measurement uncertainty, a PDF of measurands for the population is produced. Then, using Bayes's theorem, the same assumptions, and all the data from the population of individuals, a prior PDF is computed for each individual's measurand. These PDFs are non-negative, and their average is equal to the average of the measurement results for the population. The uncertainty in these Bayesian posterior PDFs is all Berkson with no remaining classical component. The methods are applied to baseline bioassay data from the Hanford site. The data include 90Sr urinalysis measurements on 128 people, 137Cs in vivo measurements on 5,337 people, and 239Pu urinalysis measurements on 3,270 people. The method produces excellent results for the 90Sr and 137Cs measurements, since there are nonzero concentrations of these global fallout radionuclides in people who have not been occupationally exposed. The method does not work for the 239Pu measurements in non-occupationally exposed people because the population average is essentially zero.« less

Detection of Coccolithophore Blooms in Ocean Color Satellite Imagery: a Generalized Approach for Use with Multiple Sensors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, Timothy; Dowell, Mark; Franz, Bryan A.

2012-01-01

A generalized coccolithophore bloom classifier has been developed for use with ocean color imagery. The bloom classifier was developed using extracted satellite reflectance data from SeaWiFS images screened by the default bloom detection mask. In the current application, we extend the optical water type (OWT) classification scheme by adding a new coccolithophore bloom class formed from these extracted reflectances. Based on an in situ coccolithophore data set from the North Atlantic, the detection levels with the new scheme were between 1,500 and 1,800 coccolithophore cellsmL and 43,000 and 78,000 lithsmL. The detected bloom area using the OWT method was an average of 1.75 times greater than the default bloom detector based on a collection of SeaWiFS 1 km imagery. The versatility of the scheme is shown with SeaWiFS, MODIS Aqua, CZCS and MERIS imagery at the 1 km scale. The OWT scheme was applied to the daily global SeaWiFS imagery mission data set (years 19972010). Based on our results, average annual coccolithophore bloom area was more than two times greater in the southern hemisphere compared to the northern hemi- sphere with values of 2.00 106 km2 and 0.75 106 km2, respectively. The new algorithm detects larger bloom areas in the Southern Ocean compared to the default algorithm, and our revised global annual average of 2.75106 km2 is dominated by contributions from the Southern Ocean.

Global patterns of kelp forest change over the past half-century.

PubMed

Krumhansl, Kira A; Okamoto, Daniel K; Rassweiler, Andrew; Novak, Mark; Bolton, John J; Cavanaugh, Kyle C; Connell, Sean D; Johnson, Craig R; Konar, Brenda; Ling, Scott D; Micheli, Fiorenza; Norderhaug, Kjell M; Pérez-Matus, Alejandro; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel; Reed, Daniel C; Salomon, Anne K; Shears, Nick T; Wernberg, Thomas; Anderson, Robert J; Barrett, Nevell S; Buschmann, Alejandro H; Carr, Mark H; Caselle, Jennifer E; Derrien-Courtel, Sandrine; Edgar, Graham J; Edwards, Matt; Estes, James A; Goodwin, Claire; Kenner, Michael C; Kushner, David J; Moy, Frithjof E; Nunn, Julia; Steneck, Robert S; Vásquez, Julio; Watson, Jane; Witman, Jon D; Byrnes, Jarrett E K

2016-11-29

Kelp forests (Order Laminariales) form key biogenic habitats in coastal regions of temperate and Arctic seas worldwide, providing ecosystem services valued in the range of billions of dollars annually. Although local evidence suggests that kelp forests are increasingly threatened by a variety of stressors, no comprehensive global analysis of change in kelp abundances currently exists. Here, we build and analyze a global database of kelp time series spanning the past half-century to assess regional and global trends in kelp abundances. We detected a high degree of geographic variation in trends, with regional variability in the direction and magnitude of change far exceeding a small global average decline (instantaneous rate of change = -0.018 y -1 ). Our analysis identified declines in 38% of ecoregions for which there are data (-0.015 to -0.18 y -1 ), increases in 27% of ecoregions (0.015 to 0.11 y -1 ), and no detectable change in 35% of ecoregions. These spatially variable trajectories reflected regional differences in the drivers of change, uncertainty in some regions owing to poor spatial and temporal data coverage, and the dynamic nature of kelp populations. We conclude that although global drivers could be affecting kelp forests at multiple scales, local stressors and regional variation in the effects of these drivers dominate kelp dynamics, in contrast to many other marine and terrestrial foundation species.

Global patterns of kelp forest change over the past half-century

PubMed Central

Krumhansl, Kira A.; Okamoto, Daniel K.; Rassweiler, Andrew; Novak, Mark; Bolton, John J.; Cavanaugh, Kyle C.; Connell, Sean D.; Johnson, Craig R.; Konar, Brenda; Ling, Scott D.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Norderhaug, Kjell M.; Pérez-Matus, Alejandro; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel; Reed, Daniel C.; Salomon, Anne K.; Shears, Nick T.; Wernberg, Thomas; Anderson, Robert J.; Barrett, Nevell S.; Buschmann, Alejandro H.; Carr, Mark H.; Caselle, Jennifer E.; Derrien-Courtel, Sandrine; Edgar, Graham J.; Edwards, Matt; Estes, James A.; Goodwin, Claire; Kenner, Michael C.; Kushner, David J.; Nunn, Julia; Steneck, Robert S.; Vásquez, Julio; Watson, Jane; Witman, Jon D.

2016-01-01

Kelp forests (Order Laminariales) form key biogenic habitats in coastal regions of temperate and Arctic seas worldwide, providing ecosystem services valued in the range of billions of dollars annually. Although local evidence suggests that kelp forests are increasingly threatened by a variety of stressors, no comprehensive global analysis of change in kelp abundances currently exists. Here, we build and analyze a global database of kelp time series spanning the past half-century to assess regional and global trends in kelp abundances. We detected a high degree of geographic variation in trends, with regional variability in the direction and magnitude of change far exceeding a small global average decline (instantaneous rate of change = −0.018 y−1). Our analysis identified declines in 38% of ecoregions for which there are data (−0.015 to −0.18 y−1), increases in 27% of ecoregions (0.015 to 0.11 y−1), and no detectable change in 35% of ecoregions. These spatially variable trajectories reflected regional differences in the drivers of change, uncertainty in some regions owing to poor spatial and temporal data coverage, and the dynamic nature of kelp populations. We conclude that although global drivers could be affecting kelp forests at multiple scales, local stressors and regional variation in the effects of these drivers dominate kelp dynamics, in contrast to many other marine and terrestrial foundation species. PMID:27849580

Comparison of Near-Surface Air Temperatures and MODIS Ice-Surface Temperatures at Summit, Greenland (2008-2013)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shuman, Christopher A.; Hall, Dorothy K.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.; Mefford, Thomas K.; Schnaubelt, Michael J.

2014-01-01

We have investigated the stability of the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) infrared-derived ice surface temperature (IST) data from Terra for use as a climate quality data record. The availability of climate quality air temperature data (TA) from a NOAA Global Monitoring Division observatory at Greenlands Summit station has enabled this high temporal resolution study of MODIS ISTs. During a 5 year period (July 2008 to August 2013), more than 2500 IST values were compared with 3-minute average TA values derived from the 1-minute data from NOAAs primary 2 m air temperature sensor. These data enabled an expected small offset between air and surface temperatures at this the ice sheet location to be investigated over multiple annual cycles.

Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Global Water and Energy Budgets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Chen, Junye

2009-01-01

In the Summer of 2009, NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) will have completed 28 years of global satellite data analyses. Here, we characterize the global water and energy budgets of MERRA, compared with available observations and the latest reanalyses. In this analysis, the climatology of the global average components are studied as well as the separate land and ocean averages. In addition, the time series of the global averages are evaluated. For example, the global difference of precipitation and evaporation generally shows the influence of water vapor observations on the system. Since the observing systems change in time, especially remotely sensed observations of water, significant temporal variations can occur across the 28 year record. These then are also closely connected to changes in the atmospheric energy and water budgets. The net imbalance of the energy budget at the surface can be large and different signs for different reanalyses. In MERRA, the imbalance of energy at the surface tends to improve with time being the smallest during the most recent and abundant satellite observations.

Why different gas flux velocity parameterizations result in so similar flux results in the North Atlantic?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piskozub, Jacek; Wróbel, Iwona

2016-04-01

The North Atlantic is a crucial region for both ocean circulation and the carbon cycle. Most of ocean deep waters are produced in the basin making it a large CO2 sink. The region, close to the major oceanographic centres has been well covered with cruises. This is why we have performed a study of net CO2 flux dependence upon the choice of gas transfer velocity k parameterization for this very region: the North Atlantic including European Arctic Seas. The study has been a part of a ESA funded OceanFlux GHG Evolution project and, at the same time, a PhD thesis (of I.W) funded by Centre of Polar Studies "POLAR-KNOW" (a project of the Polish Ministry of Science). Early results have been presented last year at EGU 2015 as a PICO presentation EGU2015-11206-1. We have used FluxEngine, a tool created within an earlier ESA funded project (OceanFlux Greenhouse Gases) to calculate the North Atlantic and global fluxes with different gas transfer velocity formulas. During the processing of the data, we have noticed that the North Atlantic results for different k formulas are more similar (in the sense of relative error) that global ones. This was true both for parameterizations using the same power of wind speed and when comparing wind squared and wind cubed parameterizations. This result was interesting because North Atlantic winds are stronger than the global average ones. Was the flux result similarity caused by the fact that the parameterizations were tuned to the North Atlantic area where many of the early cruises measuring CO2 fugacities were performed? A closer look at the parameterizations and their history showed that not all of them were based on North Atlantic data. Some of them were tuned to the South Ocean with even stronger winds while some were based on global budgets of 14C. However we have found two reasons, not reported before in the literature, for North Atlantic fluxes being more similar than global ones for different gas transfer velocity parametrizations. The first one is the fact that most of the k functions intersect close to 9 m/s, the typical North Atlantic wind speeds. The squared and cubed function need to intersect in order to have similar global averages. This way the higher values of cubic functions for strong winds are offset by higher values of squared ones for weak ones. The wind speed of the intersection has to be higher than global wind speed average because discrepancies between different parameterizations increase with the wind speed. The North Atlantic region seem to have by chance just the right average wind speeds to make all the parameterizations resulting in similar annual fluxes. However there is a second reason for smaller inter-parameterization discrepancies in the North Atlantic than many other ocean basins. The North Atlantic CO2 fluxes are downward in every month. In many regions of the world, the direction of the flux changes between the winter and summer with wind speeds much stronger in the cold season. We show, using the actual formulas that in such a case the differences between the parameterizations partly cancel out which is not the case when the flux never changes its direction. Both the mechanisms accidentally make the North Atlantic an area where the choice of k parameterizations causes very small flux uncertainty in annual fluxes. On the other hand, it makes the North Atlantic data not very useful for choosing the parameterizations most closely representing real fluxes.

Sensitive study of the climatological SST by using ATSR global SST data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Yong; Lawrence, Sean P.; Llewellyn-Jones, David T.

1995-12-01

Climatological sea surface temperature (SST) is an initial step for global climate processing monitoring. A comparison has been made by using Oberhuber's SST data set and two years monthly averaged SST from ATSR thermal band data to force the OGCM. In the eastern Pacific Ocean, these make only a small difference to model SST. In the western Pacific Ocean, the use of Oberhuber's data set gives higher climatological SST than that using ATSR data. The SSTs were also simulated for 1992 using climatological SSTs from two years monthly averaged ATSR data and Oberhuber data. The forcing with SST from ATSR data was found to give better SST simulation than that from Oberhuber's data. Our study has confirmed that ATSR can provide accurate monthly averaged global SST for global climate processing monitoring.

Motor Function Is Associated With Incident Disability in Older African Americans

PubMed Central

Wilson, Robert S.; Yu, Lei; Boyle, Patricia A.; Bennett, David A.; Barnes, Lisa L.

2016-01-01

Background: Disability in older African American adults is common, but its basis is unclear. We tested the hypothesis that the level of motor function is associated with incident disability in older African Americans after adjusting for cognition. Methods: A prospective observational cohort study of 605 older community-dwelling African American adults without dementia was carried out. Baseline global motor score summarized 11 motor performances, cognition was based on 19 cognitive tests, and self-reported disability was obtained annually. We examined the association of motor function with incident disability (instrumental activities of daily living [IADL], activities of daily living [ADL], and mobility disability) with a series of Cox proportional hazards models which controlled for age, sex, and education. Results: Average follow-up was about 5 years. In proportional hazards models, a 1-SD increase in baseline level of global motor score was associated with about a 50% decrease in the risk of subsequent IADL, ADL, and mobility disability (all p values < .001). These associations were unchanged in analyses controlling for cognition and other covariates. Further, the association of global motor score and incident ADL disability varied with the level of cognition (estimate −5.541, SE 1.634, p < .001), such that higher motor function was more protective at higher levels of cognition. Mobility and dexterity components of global motor score were more strongly associated with incident disability than strength (all p values < .001). Conclusions: Better motor function in older African Americans is associated with a decreased risk of developing disability. Moreover, the association of motor function and disability is stronger in individuals with better cognitive function. PMID:26525087

Abrupt intensification of the SW Indian Ocean monsoon during the last deglaciation: constraints from Th, Pa, and He isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcantonio, Franco; Anderson, Robert F.; Higgins, Sean; Fleisher, Martin Q.; Stute, Martin; Schlosser, Peter

2001-01-01

Sediments from western Arabian Sea core 74KL representing the last 23 ka were analyzed for helium, thorium, and protactinium isotopes. Assuming global average fluxes of extraterrestrial 3He and 230Th, the average 3He-derived sediment mass accumulation rate (MAR) is a factor of 1.8 higher than the average 230Th-derived MAR. 3He- and 230Th-derived MARs converge, however, during the Younger Dryas (YD) and during the peak of the early Holocene humid interval. These features, not seen anywhere else in the world, probably reflect a combination of climate-driven changes in the flux of 230Th and 3He. Ratios of xs 231Pa/xs 230Th, proxies of paleoproductivity, are lowest during the last glacial maximum (LGM), and increase abruptly during the Bolling-Allerod. Later, following a sudden decrease to near-LGM values during the YD, they rise abruptly to maximum values for the entire record in the early Holocene. We hypothesize that low xs 231Pa/xs 230Th ratios reflect low productivity due to the decreased intensity of the SW monsoon, whereas the opposite is true for high ratios. The correlation between Arabian Sea productivity and monsoonal upwelling, on the one hand, and North Atlantic climate variability, on the other, suggests a linkage between high- and low-latitude climates caused by changing patterns of atmospheric circulation.

Economics in "Global Health 2035": a sensitivity analysis of the value of a life year estimates.

PubMed

Chang, Angela Y; Robinson, Lisa A; Hammitt, James K; Resch, Stephen C

2017-06-01

In "Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation," The Lancet Commission on Investing in Health (CIH) adds the value of increased life expectancy to the value of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) when assessing national well-being. To value changes in life expectancy, the CIH relies on several strong assumptions to bridge gaps in the empirical research. It finds that the value of a life year (VLY) averages 2.3 times GDP per capita for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) assuming the changes in life expectancy they experienced from 2000 to 2011 are permanent. The CIH VLY estimate is based on a specific shift in population life expectancy and includes a 50 percent reduction for children ages 0 through 4. We investigate the sensitivity of this estimate to the underlying assumptions, including the effects of income, age, and life expectancy, and the sequencing of the calculations. We find that reasonable alternative assumptions regarding the effects of income, age, and life expectancy may reduce the VLY estimates to 0.2 to 2.1 times GDP per capita for LMICs. Removing the reduction for young children increases the VLY, while reversing the sequencing of the calculations reduces the VLY. Because the VLY is sensitive to the underlying assumptions, analysts interested in applying this approach elsewhere must tailor the estimates to the impacts of the intervention and the characteristics of the affected population. Analysts should test the sensitivity of their conclusions to reasonable alternative assumptions. More work is needed to investigate options for improving the approach.

Effects of stratospheric ozone recovery on photochemistry and ozone air quality in the troposphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, H.; Wu, S.; Huang, Y.; Wang, Y.

2014-04-01

There has been significant stratospheric ozone depletion since the late 1970s due to ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). With the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments and adjustments, stratospheric ozone is expected to recover towards its pre-1980 level in the coming decades. In this study, we examine the implications of stratospheric ozone recovery for the tropospheric chemistry and ozone air quality with a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). With a full recovery of the stratospheric ozone, the projected increases in ozone column range from 1% over the low latitudes to more than 10% over the polar regions. The sensitivity factor of troposphere ozone photolysis rate, defined as the percentage changes in surface ozone photolysis rate for 1% increase in stratospheric ozone column, shows significant seasonal variation but is always negative with absolute value larger than one. The expected stratospheric ozone recovery is found to affect the tropospheric ozone destruction rates much more than the ozone production rates. Significant decreases in surface ozone photolysis rates due to stratospheric ozone recovery are simulated. The global average tropospheric OH decreases by 1.7%, and the global average lifetime of tropospheric ozone increases by 1.5%. The perturbations to tropospheric ozone and surface ozone show large seasonal and spatial variations. General increases in surface ozone are calculated for each season, with increases by up to 0.8 ppbv in the remote areas. Increases in ozone lifetime by up to 13% are found in the troposphere. The increased lifetimes of tropospheric ozone in response to stratospheric ozone recovery enhance the intercontinental transport of ozone and global pollution, in particular for the summertime. The global background ozone attributable to Asian emissions is calculated to increase by up to 15% or 0.3 ppbv in the Northern Hemisphere in response to the projected stratospheric ozone recovery.

Impacts Of Global/Regional Climate Changes On Environment And Health: Need For Integrated Research And Education Collaboration (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuluri, F.

2013-12-01

The realization of long term changes in climate in research community has to go beyond the comfort zone through climate literacy in academics. Higher education on climate change is the platform to bring together the otherwise disconnected factors such as effective discovery, decision making, innovation, interdisciplinary collaboration, Climate change is a complex process that may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system, or to variations in natural or anthropogenic (human-driven) external forcing. Global climate change indicates a change in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for several decades or longer. This includes changes in average weather conditions on Earth, such as a change in average global temperature, as well as changes in how frequently regions experience heat waves, droughts, floods, storms, and other extreme weather. It is important to examine the effects of climate variations on human health and disorders in order to take preventive measures. Similarly, the influence of climate changes on animal management practices, pests and pest management systems, and high value crops such as citrus and vegetables is also equally important for investigation. New genetic agricultural varieties must be explored, and pilot studies should examine biotechnology transfer. Recent climate model improvements have resulted in an enhanced ability to simulate many aspects of climate variability and extremes. However, they are still characterized by systematic errors and limitations in accurately simulating more precisely regional climate conditions. The present situations warrant developing climate literacy on the synergistic impacts of environmental change, and improve development, testing and validation of integrated stress impacts through computer modeling. In the present study we present a detailed study of the current status on the impacts of global/regional climate changes on environment and health with a view to highlighting the need for integrated research and education collaboration at national and global level.

Detection time for global and regional sea level trends and accelerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordà, G.

2014-10-01

Many studies analyze trends on sea level data with the underlying purpose of finding indications of a long-term change that could be interpreted as the signature of anthropogenic climate change. The identification of a long-term trend is a signal-to-noise problem where the natural variability (the "noise") can mask the long-term trend (the "signal"). The signal-to-noise ratio depends on the magnitude of the long-term trend, on the magnitude of the natural variability, and on the length of the record, as the climate noise is larger when averaged over short time scales and becomes smaller over longer averaging periods. In this paper, we evaluate the time required to detect centennial sea level linear trends and accelerations at global and regional scales. Using model results and tide gauge observations, we find that the averaged detection time for a centennial linear trend is 87.9, 76.0, 59.3, 40.3, and 25.2 years for trends of 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, and 10.0 mm/yr, respectively. However, in regions with large decadal variations like the Gulf Stream or the Circumpolar current, these values can increase up to a 50%. The spatial pattern of the detection time for sea level accelerations is almost identical. The main difference is that the length of the records has to be about 40-60 years longer to detect an acceleration than to detect a linear trend leading to an equivalent change after 100 years. Finally, we have used a new sea level reconstruction, which provides a more accurate representation of interannual variability for the last century in order to estimate the detection time for global mean sea level trends and accelerations. Our results suggest that the signature of natural variability in a 30 year global mean sea level record would be less than 1 mm/yr. Therefore, at least 2.2 mm/yr of the recent sea level trend estimated by altimetry cannot be attributed to natural multidecadal variability. This article was corrected on 19 NOV 2014. See the end of the full text for details.

Tropospheric rivers? A pilot study. [of filamentary structures of atmospheric water vapor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newell, Reginald E.; Newell, Nicholas E.; Zhu, Yong; Scott, Courtney

1992-01-01

Computations of daily global tropospheric water vapor flux values show the presence of a filamentary structure. The filaments, here called rivers, have lengths many times their widths and persist for many days while being translated through the atmosphere. They are present in data analyzed for both 1981 and 1991. The water vapor flux maxima coincide quite closely to reflectivity features (averaged from wavelengths of 380 and 360 nm) as revealed by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS). It is suggested that the filamentary structure may also be present in other trace constituents.

Global meta-analysis of leaf area index in wetlands indicates uncertainties in understanding of their ecosystem function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dronova, I.; Taddeo, S.; Foster, K.

2017-12-01

Projecting ecosystem responses to global change relies on the accurate understanding of properties governing their functions in different environments. An important variable in models of ecosystem function is canopy leaf area index (LAI; leaf area per unit ground area) declared as one of the Essential Climate Variables in the Global Climate Observing System and extensively measured in terrestrial landscapes. However, wetlands have been largely under-represented in these efforts, which globally limits understanding of their contribution to carbon sequestration, climate regulation and resilience to natural and anthropogenic disturbances. This study provides a global synthesis of >350 wetland-specific LAI observations from 182 studies and compares LAI among wetland ecosystem and vegetation types, biomes and measurement approaches. Results indicate that most wetland types and even individual locations show a substantial local dispersion of LAI values (average coefficient of variation 65%) due to heterogeneity of environmental properties and vegetation composition. Such variation indicates that mean LAI values may not sufficiently represent complex wetland environments, and the use of this index in ecosystem function models needs to incorporate within-site variation in canopy properties. Mean LAI did not significantly differ between direct and indirect measurement methods on a pooled global sample; however, within some of the specific biomes and wetland types significant contrasts between these approaches were detected. These contrasts highlight unique aspects of wetland vegetation physiology and canopy structure affecting measurement principles that need to be considered in generalizing canopy properties in ecosystem models. Finally, efforts to assess wetland LAI using remote sensing strongly indicate the promise of this technology for cost-effective regional-scale modeling of canopy properties similar to terrestrial systems. However, such efforts urgently require more rigorous corrections for three-dimensional contributions of non-canopy material and non-vegetated surfaces to wetland canopy reflectance.

Statistical Theory of the Ideal MHD Geodynamo

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shebalin, J. V.

2012-01-01

A statistical theory of geodynamo action is developed, using a mathematical model of the geodynamo as a rotating outer core containing an ideal (i.e., no dissipation), incompressible, turbulent, convecting magnetofluid. On the concentric inner and outer spherical bounding surfaces the normal components of the velocity, magnetic field, vorticity and electric current are zero, as is the temperature fluctuation. This allows the use of a set of Galerkin expansion functions that are common to both velocity and magnetic field, as well as vorticity, current and the temperature fluctuation. The resulting dynamical system, based on the Boussinesq form of the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations, represents MHD turbulence in a spherical domain. These basic equations (minus the temperature equation) and boundary conditions have been used previously in numerical simulations of forced, decaying MHD turbulence inside a sphere [1,2]. Here, the ideal case is studied through statistical analysis and leads to a prediction that an ideal coherent structure will be found in the form of a large-scale quasistationary magnetic field that results from broken ergodicity, an effect that has been previously studied both analytically and numerically for homogeneous MHD turbulence [3,4]. The axial dipole component becomes prominent when there is a relatively large magnetic helicity (proportional to the global correlation of magnetic vector potential and magnetic field) and a stationary, nonzero cross helicity (proportional to the global correlation of velocity and magnetic field). The expected angle of the dipole moment vector with respect to the rotation axis is found to decrease to a minimum as the average cross helicity increases for a fixed value of magnetic helicity and then to increase again when average cross helicity approaches its maximum possible value. Only a relatively small value of cross helicity is needed to produce a dipole moment vector that is aligned at approx.10deg with the rotation axis.

Validation and Development of the GPCP Experimental One-Degree Daily (1DD) Global Precipitation Product

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Bolvin, David T.; Einaud, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The One-Degree Daily (1DD) precipitation dataset has been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and is currently in beta test preparatory to release as an official GPCP product. The 1DD provides a globally-complete, observation-only estimate of precipitation on a daily 1 deg. x 1 deg. grid for the period 1997 through early 2000 (by the time of the conference). In the latitude band 40N-40S the 1DD uses the Threshold-Matched Precipitation Index (TMPI), a GPI-like IR product with the pixel-level T(sub b) threshold and (single) conditional rain rate determined locally for each month by the frequency of precipitation in the GPROF SSM/I product and by, the precipitation amount in the GPCP monthly satellite-gauge (SG) combination. Outside 40N-40S the 1DD uses a scaled TOVS precipitation estimate that has month-by-month adjustments based on the TMPI and the SG. Early validation results are encouraging. The 1DD shows relatively large scatter about the daily validation values in individual grid boxes, as expected for a technique that depends on cloud-sensing schemes such as the TMPI and TOVS. On the other hand, the time series of 1DD shows good correlation with validation in individual boxes. For example, the 1997-1998 time series of 1DD and Oklahoma Mesonet values in a grid box in northeastern Oklahoma have the correlation coefficient = 0.73. Looking more carefully at these two time series, the number of raining days for the 1DD is within 7% of the Mesonet value, while the distribution of daily rain values is very similar. Other tests indicate that area- or time-averaging improve the error characteristics, making the data set highly attractive to users interested in stream flow, short-term regional climatology, and model comparisons. The second generation of the 1DD product is currently under development; it is designed to directly incorporate TRMM and other high-quality precipitation estimates. These data are generally sparse because they are observed by low-orbit satellites, so a fair amount of work must be devoted to analyzing the effect of data boundaries. This work is laying, the groundwork for effective use of the NASA Global Precipitation Mission, which will have full Global coverage by low-orbit passive microwave satellites every three hours.

Water use efficiency of net primary production in global terrestrial ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Lei; Wang, Fei; Mu, Xingmin; Jin, Kai; Sun, Wenyi; Gao, Peng; Zhao, Guangju

2015-07-01

The carbon and water cycles of terrestrial ecosystems, which are strongly coupled via water use efficiency (WUE), are influenced by global climate change. To explore the relationship between the carbon and water cycles and predict the effect of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, it is necessary to study the WUE in global terrestrial ecosystems. In this study, the 13-year WUE (i.e., net primary production (NPP)/evapotranspiration (ET)) of global terrestrial ecosystems was calculated based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) NPP (MOD17A3) and ET (MOD16A3) products from 2000 to 2012. The results indicate that the annual average WUE decreased but not significantly, and the 13-year mean value was 868.88 mg C m -2 mm -1. The variation trend of WUE value for each pixel differed greatly across the terrestrial ecosystems. A significant variation ( P<0.05) occurred in about 18.50% of the land surface. WUE was spatially distributed from 0 to 2541 mg C m -2 mm -1, and 58.78% of the WUE values were concentrated in the interval of 600-1200 mg C m -2 mm -1. The WUE increased from north to south in Africa and Oceania and from east to west in Europe and South America. Both latitudinal and longitudinal gradients existed in Asia and North America. The following trends in the WUE of different continents and Köppen-Geiger climates were observed: Europe (1129.71 mg C m -2 mm -1)> Oceania (1084.46 mg C m -2 mm -1)> Africa (893.51 mg C m -2 mm -1)> South America (893.07 mg C m -2 mm -1)> North America (870.79 mg C m -2 mm -1)> Asia (738.98 mg C m -2 mm -1) and warm temperate climates (1094 mg C m -2 mm -1)> snowy climates (862 mg C m -2 mm -1)> arid climates (785 mg C m -2 mm -1)> equatorial climates (732 mg C m -2 mm -1)> polar climates (435 mg C m -2 mm -1). Based on the WUE value and the present or future rainfall, the maximum carbon that fixed in one region may be theoretically calculated. Also, under the background of global climatic change, WUE may be regarded as an important reference for allotting CO 2 emissions offsets and carbon transactions.

Likelihood Ratios for Glaucoma Diagnosis Using Spectral Domain Optical Coherence Tomography

PubMed Central

Lisboa, Renato; Mansouri, Kaweh; Zangwill, Linda M.; Weinreb, Robert N.; Medeiros, Felipe A.

2014-01-01

Purpose To present a methodology for calculating likelihood ratios for glaucoma diagnosis for continuous retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness measurements from spectral domain optical coherence tomography (spectral-domain OCT). Design Observational cohort study. Methods 262 eyes of 187 patients with glaucoma and 190 eyes of 100 control subjects were included in the study. Subjects were recruited from the Diagnostic Innovations Glaucoma Study. Eyes with preperimetric and perimetric glaucomatous damage were included in the glaucoma group. The control group was composed of healthy eyes with normal visual fields from subjects recruited from the general population. All eyes underwent RNFL imaging with Spectralis spectral-domain OCT. Likelihood ratios for glaucoma diagnosis were estimated for specific global RNFL thickness measurements using a methodology based on estimating the tangents to the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. Results Likelihood ratios could be determined for continuous values of average RNFL thickness. Average RNFL thickness values lower than 86μm were associated with positive LRs, i.e., LRs greater than 1; whereas RNFL thickness values higher than 86μm were associated with negative LRs, i.e., LRs smaller than 1. A modified Fagan nomogram was provided to assist calculation of post-test probability of disease from the calculated likelihood ratios and pretest probability of disease. Conclusion The methodology allowed calculation of likelihood ratios for specific RNFL thickness values. By avoiding arbitrary categorization of test results, it potentially allows for an improved integration of test results into diagnostic clinical decision-making. PMID:23972303

The state of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere using global observations through 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarasova, Oksana; Vermeulen, Alex; Ueno, Mikio

2017-04-01

We present results from the twelfth annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/gaw/ghg/GHGbulletin.html) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The results are based on research and observations performed by laboratories contributing to the WMO Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme (www.wmo.int/gaw). The Bulletin presents results of global analyses of observational data collected according to GAW recommended practices and submitted to the World Data Center for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG). Bulletins are prepared by the WMO/GAW Scientific Advisory Group for Greenhouse Gases (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/gaw/ScientificAdvisoryGroups.html) in collaboration with WDCGG. Observations used for global analysis are collected at more than 100 marine and terrestrial sites worldwide for CO2 and CH4 and at a smaller number of sites for other greenhouse gases. Globally averaged dry-air mole fractions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide derived from this network reached new highs in 2015, with CO2 at 400.0±0.1 ppm, CH4 at 1845±2 ppb and N2O at 328.0±0.1 ppb. These values constitute 144%, 256% and 121% of pre-industrial (before 1750) levels, respectively. It is predicted that 2016 will be the first year in which CO2 at the Mauna Loa Observatory remains above 400 ppm all year, and hence for many generations ( Betts et al., 2016). The atmospheric increase of CO2 from 2014 to 2015 was 2.3 ppm, which is larger than the increase from 2013 to 2014 and the average growth rate for the past decade (˜2.08 ppm per year), despite evidence that global anthropogenic emissions remained essentially static between 2014 and 2015. The higher growth rate in 2015 compared with the previous years is due to increased natural emissions of CO2 related to the most recent El Niño event. According to the most recent data, increased growth rates have persisted far into 2016, consistent with the expected lag between CO2 growth and the ENSO index. The average increase in atmospheric CO2 from 2005 to 2014 corresponds to ˜44% of the CO2 emitted by human activity with the remaining ˜56% removed by the oceans and the terrestrial biosphere (La Quéré et al., 2015). For CH4 the increase from 2014 to 2015 was larger than that observed from 2013 to 2014 and the mean growth rate over the past 10 years. The annual increase of N2O globally averaged mole fraction from 2014 to 2015 was similar to that observed from 2013 to 2014 and greater than the average growth rate over the past 10 years. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Annual Greenhouse Gas Index shows that from 1990 to 2015 radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases increased by 37%, with CO2 accounting for about 80% of this increase. The radiative forcing by all long-lived greenhouse gases in 2015 corresponded to a CO2-equivalent mole fraction of 485 ppm (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi). Bulletin cover story explains the connection between CO2 growth rates and El Niño phenomena. Bulletin contains brief introduction of the Integrated Global Greenhouse Gas Information System, which will be presented separately at the other session. References Betts, R.A. et al, 2016: El Niño and a record CO2 rise. Nature Climate Change, 6(9):806-810, doi:10.1038/nclimate3063. Le Quéré, C. et al. 2015: Global carbon budget 2015. Earth System Science Data, 7(2):349-396, doi:10.5194/essd-7-349-2015.

Unifying mechanical and thermodynamic descriptions across the thioredoxin protein family.

PubMed

Mottonen, James M; Xu, Minli; Jacobs, Donald J; Livesay, Dennis R

2009-05-15

We compare various predicted mechanical and thermodynamic properties of nine oxidized thioredoxins (TRX) using a Distance Constraint Model (DCM). The DCM is based on a nonadditive free energy decomposition scheme, where entropic contributions are determined from rigidity and flexibility of structure based on distance constraints. We perform averages over an ensemble of constraint topologies to calculate several thermodynamic and mechanical response functions that together yield quantitative stability/flexibility relationships (QSFR). Applied to the TRX protein family, QSFR metrics display a rich variety of similarities and differences. In particular, backbone flexibility is well conserved across the family, whereas cooperativity correlation describing mechanical and thermodynamic couplings between the residue pairs exhibit distinctive features that readily standout. The diversity in predicted QSFR metrics that describe cooperativity correlation between pairs of residues is largely explained by a global flexibility order parameter describing the amount of intrinsic flexibility within the protein. A free energy landscape is calculated as a function of the flexibility order parameter, and key values are determined where the native-state, transition-state, and unfolded-state are located. Another key value identifies a mechanical transition where the global nature of the protein changes from flexible to rigid. The key values of the flexibility order parameter help characterize how mechanical and thermodynamic response is linked. Variation in QSFR metrics and key characteristics of global flexibility are related to the native state X-ray crystal structure primarily through the hydrogen bond network. Furthermore, comparison of three TRX redox pairs reveals differences in thermodynamic response (i.e., relative melting point) and mechanical properties (i.e., backbone flexibility and cooperativity correlation) that are consistent with experimental data on thermal stabilities and NMR dynamical profiles. The results taken together demonstrate that small-scale structural variations are amplified into discernible global differences by propagating mechanical couplings through the H-bond network.

End-to-end distance and contour length distribution functions of DNA helices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zoli, Marco

2018-06-01

I present a computational method to evaluate the end-to-end and the contour length distribution functions of short DNA molecules described by a mesoscopic Hamiltonian. The method generates a large statistical ensemble of possible configurations for each dimer in the sequence, selects the global equilibrium twist conformation for the molecule, and determines the average base pair distances along the molecule backbone. Integrating over the base pair radial and angular fluctuations, I derive the room temperature distribution functions as a function of the sequence length. The obtained values for the most probable end-to-end distance and contour length distance, providing a measure of the global molecule size, are used to examine the DNA flexibility at short length scales. It is found that, also in molecules with less than ˜60 base pairs, coiled configurations maintain a large statistical weight and, consistently, the persistence lengths may be much smaller than in kilo-base DNA.

The role of earth radiation budget studies in climate and general circulation research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramanathan, V.

1987-01-01

The use of earth radiation budget (ERB) data for climate and general circulation research is studied. ERB measurements obtained in the 1960's and 1970's have provided data on planetary brightness, planetary global energy balances, the greenhouse effect, solar insolation, meridional heat transport by oceans and atmospheres, regional forcing, climate feedback processes, and the computation of albedo values in low latitudes. The role of clouds in governing climate, in influencing the general circulation, and in determining the sensitivity of climate to external perturbations needs to be researched; a procedure for analyzing the ERB data, which will address these problems, is described. The approach involves estimating the clear-sky fluxes from the high spatial resolution scanner measurement and defining a cloud radiative forcing; the global average of the sum of the solar and long-wave cloud forcing yields the net radiative effect of clouds on the climate.

Association mapping of agro-morphological characters among the global collection of finger millet genotypes using genomic SSR markers.

PubMed

Kalyana Babu, B; Agrawal, P K; Pandey, Dinesh; Jaiswal, J P; Kumar, Anil

2014-08-01

Identification of alleles responsible for various agro-morphological characters is a major concern to further improve the finger millet germplasm. Forty-six genomic SSRs were used for genetic analysis and population structure analysis of a global collection of 190 finger millet genotypes and fifteen agro-morphological characters were evaluated. The overall results showed that Asian genotypes were smaller in height, smaller flag leaf length, less basal tiller number, early flowering and early maturity nature, small ear head length, and smaller in length of longest finger. The 46 SSRs yielded 90 scorable alleles and the polymorphism information content values varied from 0.292 to 0.703 at an average of 0.442. The gene diversity was in the range of 0.355 to 0.750 with an average value of 0.528. The 46 genomic SSR loci grouped the 190 finger millet genotypes into two major clusters based on their geographical origin by the both phylogenetic clustering and population structure analysis by STRUCTURE software. Association mapping of QTLs for 15 agro-morphological characters with 46 genomic SSRs resulted in identification of five markers were linked to QTLs of four traits at a significant threshold (P) level of ≤ 0.01 and ≤ 0.001. The QTL for basal tiller number was strongly associated with the locus UGEP81 at a P value of 0.001 by explaining the phenotypic variance (R (2)) of 10.8%. The QTL for days to 50% flowering was linked by two SSR loci UGEP77 and UGEP90, explained 10 and 8.7% of R (2) respectively at a P value of 0.01. The SSR marker, FM9 found to have strong association to two agro-morphological traits, flag leaf width (P-0.001, R(2)-14.1 %) and plant height (P-0.001, R(2)-11.2%). The markers linked to the QTLs for above agro-morphological characters found in the present study can be further used for cloning of the full length gene, fine mapping and their further use in the marker assisted breeding programmes for introgression of alleles into locally well adapted germplasm.

On nonstationarity and antipersistency in global temperature series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

KäRner, O.

2002-10-01

Statistical analysis is carried out for satellite-based global daily tropospheric and stratospheric temperature anomaly and solar irradiance data sets. Behavior of the series appears to be nonstationary with stationary daily increments. Estimating long-range dependence between the increments reveals a remarkable difference between the two temperature series. Global average tropospheric temperature anomaly behaves similarly to the solar irradiance anomaly. Their daily increments show antipersistency for scales longer than 2 months. The property points at a cumulative negative feedback in the Earth climate system governing the tropospheric variability during the last 22 years. The result emphasizes a dominating role of the solar irradiance variability in variations of the tropospheric temperature and gives no support to the theory of anthropogenic climate change. The global average stratospheric temperature anomaly proceeds like a 1-dim random walk at least up to 11 years, allowing good presentation by means of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for monthly series.

Myocardial Performance Index for Patients with Overt and Subclinical Hypothyroidism.

PubMed

Karabulut, Aziz; Doğan, Abdullah; Tuzcu, Alpaslan Kemal

2017-05-25

BACKGROUND Hypothyroid has several effects on the cardiovascular system. Global myocardial performance index (MPI) is used in assessment of both left ventricular (LV) systolic and diastolic function. We compared MPI in hypothyroidism patients vs. normal control subjects. MATERIAL AND METHODS Eighty-two hypothyroid patients were divided into 2 groups: a subclinical hypothyroid (SH) group (n=50), and an overt hypothyroid (OH) group (n=32). The healthy control group (CG) constituted of 37 patients. TSH, FT3, and FT4, anti-TPO, anti-TG, insulin, lipid values, and fasting glucose levels were studied. All patients underwent an echocardiographic examination. Myocardial performance indexes were assessed and standard echocardiographic examinations were investigated. RESULTS MPI averages in OH, SH, and control groups were 0.53±0.06, 0.51±0.05, and 0.44±0.75 mm, respectively. MPI was increased in the OH and SH groups in comparison to CG (p<0.001, p<0.001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS MPI value was significantly higher in hypothyroid patients in comparison to the control group, showing that regression in global left ventricular functions is an important echocardiographic finding. Future studies are required to determine the effects of this finding on long-term cardiovascular outcomes.

Winners and losers in a world where the high seas is closed to fishing

PubMed Central

Sumaila, U. Rashid; Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Miller, Dana D.; Teh, Louise; Watson, Reg A.; Zeller, Dirk; Cheung, William W. L.; Côté, Isabelle M.; Rogers, Alex D.; Roberts, Callum; Sala, Enric; Pauly, Daniel

2015-01-01

Fishing takes place in the high seas and Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of maritime countries. Closing the former to fishing has recently been proposed in the literature and is currently an issue of debate in various international fora. We determine the degree of overlap between fish caught in these two areas of the ocean, examine how global catch might change if catches of straddling species or taxon groups increase within EEZs as a result of protection of adjacent high seas; and identify countries that are likely to gain or lose in total catch quantity and value following high-seas closure. We find that <0.01% of the quantity and value of commercial fish taxa are obtained from catch taken exclusively in the high seas, and if the catch of straddling taxa increases by 18% on average following closure because of spillover, there would be no loss in global catch. The Gini coefficient, which measures income inequality, would decrease from 0.66 to 0.33. Thus, closing the high seas could be catch-neutral while inequality in the distribution of fisheries benefits among the world's maritime countries could be reduced by 50%. PMID:25674681

Global relativistic effects in chaotic scattering.

PubMed

Bernal, Juan D; Seoane, Jesús M; Sanjuán, Miguel A F

2017-03-01

The phenomenon of chaotic scattering is very relevant in different fields of science and engineering. It has been mainly studied in the context of Newtonian mechanics, where the velocities of the particles are low in comparison with the speed of light. Here, we analyze global properties such as the escape time distribution and the decay law of the Hénon-Heiles system in the context of special relativity. Our results show that the average escape time decreases with increasing values of the relativistic factor β. As a matter of fact, we have found a crossover point for which the KAM islands in the phase space are destroyed when β≃0.4. On the other hand, the study of the survival probability of particles in the scattering region shows an algebraic decay for values of β≤0.4, and this law becomes exponential for β>0.4. Surprisingly, a scaling law between the exponent of the decay law and the β factor is uncovered where a quadratic fitting between them is found. The results of our numerical simulations agree faithfully with our qualitative arguments. We expect this work to be useful for a better understanding of both chaotic and relativistic systems.

Quantifying immediate radiative forcing by black carbon and organic matter with the Specific Forcing Pulse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond, T. C.; Zarzycki, C.; Flanner, M. G.; Koch, D. M.

2010-06-01

We propose a measure to quantify climate warming or cooling by pollutants with atmospheric lifetimes of less than one year: the Specific Forcing Pulse (SFP). SFP is the amount of energy added to the Earth system per mass of pollutant emitted. Global average SFP for black carbon, including atmosphere and cryosphere, is 1.12 GJ g-1 and that for organic matter is -0.061 GJ g-1. We provide regional values for black carbon (BC) and organic matter (OM) emitted from 23 source-region combinations, divided between atmosphere and cryosphere impacts and identifying forcing by latitude. Regional SFP varies by about 40% for black carbon. This variation is relatively small because of compensating effects; particles from regions that affect ice albedo typically have shorter atmospheric lifetimes because of lower convection. The ratio between BC and OM SFP implies that, for direct forcing, an OM:BC mass ratio of 15 has a neutral effect on top-of-atmosphere direct forcing for any region, and any lower ratio induces direct warming. However, important processes, particularly cloud changes that tend toward cooling, have not been included here. We demonstrate ensemble adjustment, in which we produce a "best estimate" by combining a suite of diverse but simple models and enhanced models of greater complexity. Adjustments for black carbon internal mixing and for regional variability are discussed; regions with convection are implicated in greater model diversity. SFP expresses scientific uncertainty and separates it from policy uncertainty; the latter is caused by disagreements about the relevant time horizon, impact, or spatial scale of interest. However, metrics used in policy discussions, such as global warming potentials, are easily derived from SFP. Global-average SFP for biofuel and fossil fuel emissions translates to a 100-year GWP of about 760 for black carbon and -40 for organic matter when snow forcing is included. Ensemble-adjusted estimates of atmospheric radiative impact by black and organic matter using year 2000 emissions are +0.46 W m-2 and -0.17 W m-2, respectively; anthropogenic forcing is +0.38 W m-2 and -0.12 W m-2. The black carbon value is only 11% higher than that of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), although this value includes enhanced absorption due to internal mixing.

Natural gas fugitive emissions rates constrained by global atmospheric methane and ethane.

PubMed

Schwietzke, Stefan; Griffin, W Michael; Matthews, H Scott; Bruhwiler, Lori M P

2014-07-15

The amount of methane emissions released by the natural gas (NG) industry is a critical and uncertain value for various industry and policy decisions, such as for determining the climate implications of using NG over coal. Previous studies have estimated fugitive emissions rates (FER)--the fraction of produced NG (mainly methane and ethane) escaped to the atmosphere--between 1 and 9%. Most of these studies rely on few and outdated measurements, and some may represent only temporal/regional NG industry snapshots. This study estimates NG industry representative FER using global atmospheric methane and ethane measurements over three decades, and literature ranges of (i) tracer gas atmospheric lifetimes, (ii) non-NG source estimates, and (iii) fossil fuel fugitive gas hydrocarbon compositions. The modeling suggests an upper bound global average FER of 5% during 2006-2011, and a most likely FER of 2-4% since 2000, trending downward. These results do not account for highly uncertain natural hydrocarbon seepage, which could lower the FER. Further emissions reductions by the NG industry may be needed to ensure climate benefits over coal during the next few decades.

Helium escape from the Earth's atmosphere - The charge exchange mechanism revisited

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lie-Svendsen, O.; Rees, M. H.; Stamnes, K.

1992-01-01

We have studied the escape of neutral helium from the terrestrial atmosphere through exothermic charge exchange reactions between He(+) ions and the major atmospheric constituents N2, O2 and O. Elastic collisions with the neutral background particles were treated quantitatively using a recently developed kinetic theory approach. An interhemispheric plasma transport model was employed to provide a global distribution of He(+) ions as a function of altitude, latitude and local solar time and for different levels of solar ionization. Combining these ion densities with neutral densities from an MSIS model and best estimates for the reaction rate coefficients of the charge exchange reactions, we computed the global distribution of the neutral He escape flux. The escape rates show large diurnal and latitudinal variations, while the global average does not vary by more than a factor of three over a solar cycle. We find that this escape mechanism is potentially important for the overall balance of helium in the Earth's atmosphere. However, more accurate values for the reaction rate coefficients of the charge exchange reactions are required to make a definitive assessment of its importance.

Global Conformational Selection and Local Induced Fit for the Recognition between Intrinsic Disordered p53 and CBP

PubMed Central

Yu, Qingfen; Ye, Wei; Wang, Wei; Chen, Hai-Feng

2013-01-01

The transactivation domain (TAD) of tumor suppressor p53 can bind with the nuclear coactivator binding domain (NCBD) of cyclic-AMP response element binding protein (CBP) and activate transcription. NMR experiments demonstrate that both apo-NCBD and TAD are intrinsic disordered and bound NCBD/TAD undergoes a transition to well folded. The recognition mechanism between intrinsic disordered proteins is still hotly debated. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations in explicit solvent are used to study the recognition mechanism between intrinsic disordered TAD and NCBD. The average RMSD values between bound and corresponding apo states and Kolmogorov-Smirnov P test analysis indicate that TAD and NCBD may follow an induced fit mechanism. Quantitative analysis indicates there is also a global conformational selection. In summary, the recognition of TAD and NCBD might obey a local induced fit and global conformational selection. These conclusions are further supported by high-temperature unbinding kinetics and room temperature landscape analysis. These methods can be used to study the recognition mechanism of other intrinsic disordered proteins. PMID:23555731

Emergence of a fluctuation relation for heat in nonequilibrium Landauer processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taranto, Philip; Modi, Kavan; Pollock, Felix A.

2018-05-01

In a generalized framework for the Landauer erasure protocol, we study bounds on the heat dissipated in typical nonequilibrium quantum processes. In contrast to thermodynamic processes, quantum fluctuations are not suppressed in the nonequilibrium regime and cannot be ignored, making such processes difficult to understand and treat. Here we derive an emergent fluctuation relation that virtually guarantees the average heat produced to be dissipated into the reservoir either when the system or reservoir is large (or both) or when the temperature is high. The implication of our result is that for nonequilibrium processes, heat fluctuations away from its average value are suppressed independently of the underlying dynamics exponentially quickly in the dimension of the larger subsystem and linearly in the inverse temperature. We achieve these results by generalizing a concentration of measure relation for subsystem states to the case where the global state is mixed.

Comparison of two non-convex mixed-integer nonlinear programming algorithms applied to autoregressive moving average model structure and parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uilhoorn, F. E.

2016-10-01

In this article, the stochastic modelling approach proposed by Box and Jenkins is treated as a mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) problem solved with a mesh adaptive direct search and a real-coded genetic class of algorithms. The aim is to estimate the real-valued parameters and non-negative integer, correlated structure of stationary autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes. The maximum likelihood function of the stationary ARMA process is embedded in Akaike's information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion, whereas the estimation procedure is based on Kalman filter recursions. The constraints imposed on the objective function enforce stability and invertibility. The best ARMA model is regarded as the global minimum of the non-convex MINLP problem. The robustness and computational performance of the MINLP solvers are compared with brute-force enumeration. Numerical experiments are done for existing time series and one new data set.

A quarter-million years of paleoenvironmental change at Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kaufman, D.S.; Bright, Jordon; Dean, W.E.; Rosenbaum, J.G.; Moser, K.; Anderson, R. Scott; Colman, Steven M.; Heil, C.W.; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Reheis, M.C.; Simmons, K.R.

2009-01-01

A continuous, 120-m-long core (BL00-1) from Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho, contains evidence of hydrologic and environmental change over the last two glacial-interglacial cycles. The core was taken at 41.95??N, 111.31??W, near the depocenter of the 60-m-deep, spring-fed, alkaline lake, where carbonate-bearing sediment has accumulated continuously. Chronological control is poor but indicates an average sedimentation rate of 0.54 mm yr-1. Analyses have been completed at multi-centennial to millennial scales, including (in order of decreasing temporal resolution) sediment magnetic properties, oxygen and carbon isotopes on bulk-sediment carbonate, organic- and inorganiccarbon contents, palynology; mineralogy (X-ray diffraction), strontium isotopes on bulk carbonate, ostracode taxonomy, oxygen and carbon isotopes on ostracodes, and diatom assemblages. Massive silty clay and marl constitute most of the core, with variable carbonate content (average = 31 ?? 19%) and oxygen-isotopic values (??18O ranging from -18??? to -5??? in bulk carbonate). These variations, as well as fluctuations of biological indicators, reflect changes in the water and sediment discharged from the glaciated headwaters of the dominant tributary, Bear River, and the processes that influenced sediment delivery to the core site, including lake-level changes. Although its influence has varied, Bear River has remained a tributary to Bear Lake during most of the last quarter-million years. The lake disconnected from the river and, except for a few brief excursions, retracted into a topographically closed basin during global interglaciations (during parts of marine isotope stages 7, 5, and 1). These intervals contain up to 80% endogenic aragonite with high ??18O values (average = -5.8 ?? 1.7???), indicative of strongly evaporitic conditions. Interglacial intervals also are dominated by small, benthic/tychoplanktic fragilarioid species indicative of reduced habitat availability associated with low lake levels, and they contain increased high-desert shrub and Juniperus pollen and decreased forest and forest-woodland pollen. The 87Sr 86Sr values (>0.7100) also increase, and the ratio of quartz to dolomite decreases, as expected in the absence of Bear River in flow. The changing paleoenvironments inferred from BL00-1 generally are consistent with other regional and global records of glacialinterglacial fluctuations; the diversity of paleoenvironmental conditions inferred from BL00-1 also reflects the influence of catchment-scale processes. Copyright ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

Solar Resource Assessment for Sri Lanka and Maldives

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Renne, D.; George, R.; Marion, B.

2003-08-01

The countries of Sri Lanka and the Maldives lie within the equatorial belt, a region where substantial solar energy resources exist throughout much of the year in adequate quantities for many applications, including solar water heating, solar electricity, and desalination. The extent of solar resources in Sri Lanka has been estimated in the past based on a study of the daily total direct sunshine hours recorded at a number of weather and agricultural stations throughout the country. These data have been applied to the well-known Angstrom relationship in order to obtain an estimate of the distribution of monthly average dailymore » total solar resources at these stations. This study is an effort in improve on these estimates in two ways: (1) to apply a gridded cloud cover database at a 40-km resolution to produce updated monthly average daily total estimates of all solar resources (global horizontal, DNI, and diffuse) for the country, and (2) to input hourly or three-hourly cloud cover observations made at nine weather stations in Sri Lanka and two in the Maldives into a solar model that produces estimates of hourly solar radiation values of the direct normal, global, and diffuse resource covering the length of the observational period. Details and results of these studies are summarized in this report.« less

An Improved Approach for Estimating Daily Net Radiation over the Heihe River Basin

PubMed Central

Wu, Bingfang; Liu, Shufu; Zhu, Weiwei; Yan, Nana; Xing, Qiang; Tan, Shen

2017-01-01

Net radiation plays an essential role in determining the thermal conditions of the Earth’s surface and is an important parameter for the study of land-surface processes and global climate change. In this paper, an improved satellite-based approach to estimate the daily net radiation is presented, in which sunshine duration were derived from the geostationary meteorological satellite (FY-2D) cloud classification product, the monthly empirical as and bs Angstrom coefficients for net shortwave radiation were calibrated by spatial fitting of the ground data from 1997 to 2006, and the daily net longwave radiation was calibrated with ground data from 2007 to 2010 over the Heihe River Basin in China. The estimated daily net radiation values were validated against ground data for 12 months in 2008 at four stations with different underlying surface types. The average coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.8489, and the averaged Nash-Sutcliffe equation (NSE) was 0.8356. The close agreement between the estimated daily net radiation and observations indicates that the proposed method is promising, especially given the comparison between the spatial distribution and the interpolation of sunshine duration. Potential applications include climate research, energy balance studies and the estimation of global evapotranspiration. PMID:28054976

An Improved Approach for Estimating Daily Net Radiation over the Heihe River Basin.

PubMed

Wu, Bingfang; Liu, Shufu; Zhu, Weiwei; Yan, Nana; Xing, Qiang; Tan, Shen

2017-01-04

Net radiation plays an essential role in determining the thermal conditions of the Earth's surface and is an important parameter for the study of land-surface processes and global climate change. In this paper, an improved satellite-based approach to estimate the daily net radiation is presented, in which sunshine duration were derived from the geostationary meteorological satellite (FY-2D) cloud classification product, the monthly empirical a s and b s Angstrom coefficients for net shortwave radiation were calibrated by spatial fitting of the ground data from 1997 to 2006, and the daily net longwave radiation was calibrated with ground data from 2007 to 2010 over the Heihe River Basin in China. The estimated daily net radiation values were validated against ground data for 12 months in 2008 at four stations with different underlying surface types. The average coefficient of determination ( R ²) was 0.8489, and the averaged Nash-Sutcliffe equation ( NSE ) was 0.8356. The close agreement between the estimated daily net radiation and observations indicates that the proposed method is promising, especially given the comparison between the spatial distribution and the interpolation of sunshine duration. Potential applications include climate research, energy balance studies and the estimation of global evapotranspiration.

SSE Global Data

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-04-12

SSE Global Data Text files of monthly averaged data for the entire ... Version:  V6 Location:  Global Spatial Coverage:  (90N, 90S)(180W,180E) ... File Format:  ASCII Order Data:  SSE Global Data: Order Data SCAR-B Block:  ...

GLASS daytime all-wave net radiation product: Algorithm development and preliminary validation

DOE PAGES

Jiang, Bo; Liang, Shunlin; Ma, Han; ...

2016-03-09

Mapping surface all-wave net radiation (R n) is critically needed for various applications. Several existing R n products from numerical models and satellite observations have coarse spatial resolutions and their accuracies may not meet the requirements of land applications. In this study, we develop the Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) daytime R n product at a 5 km spatial resolution. Its algorithm for converting shortwave radiation to all-wave net radiation using the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) model is determined after comparison with three other algorithms. The validation of the GLASS R n product based on high-quality in situ measurementsmore » in the United States shows a coefficient of determination value of 0.879, an average root mean square error value of 31.61 Wm -2, and an average bias of 17.59 Wm -2. Furthermore, we also compare our product/algorithm with another satellite product (CERES-SYN) and two reanalysis products (MERRA and JRA55), and find that the accuracy of the much higher spatial resolution GLASS R n product is satisfactory. The GLASS R n product from 2000 to the present is operational and freely available to the public.« less

GLASS daytime all-wave net radiation product: Algorithm development and preliminary validation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Bo; Liang, Shunlin; Ma, Han

Mapping surface all-wave net radiation (R n) is critically needed for various applications. Several existing R n products from numerical models and satellite observations have coarse spatial resolutions and their accuracies may not meet the requirements of land applications. In this study, we develop the Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) daytime R n product at a 5 km spatial resolution. Its algorithm for converting shortwave radiation to all-wave net radiation using the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) model is determined after comparison with three other algorithms. The validation of the GLASS R n product based on high-quality in situ measurementsmore » in the United States shows a coefficient of determination value of 0.879, an average root mean square error value of 31.61 Wm -2, and an average bias of 17.59 Wm -2. Furthermore, we also compare our product/algorithm with another satellite product (CERES-SYN) and two reanalysis products (MERRA and JRA55), and find that the accuracy of the much higher spatial resolution GLASS R n product is satisfactory. The GLASS R n product from 2000 to the present is operational and freely available to the public.« less

Revisiting the "thermospheric spoon" mechanism of the thermosphere and ionosphere semiannual oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emmert, J. T.; Jones, M., Jr.; Picone, J. M.; Drob, D. P.; Siskind, D. E.

2017-12-01

The thermosphere-ionosphere (T-I) exhibits a strong ( ±20%) semiannual oscillation (SAO) in globally averaged mass and electron density; the source of the SAO is still unclear. Two prominent proposed mechanisms are: (1) the "thermospheric spoon" mechanism (TSM) [Fuller-Rowell, 1998], which is a resolved-scale, seasonally dependent mixing process that drives an SAO through interhemispheric meridional and vertical transport of constituents and (2) seasonal variations in eddy diffusion (Kzz) associated with breaking gravity waves ("Kzz hypothesis") [Qian et al. 2009]. In this study, we use the National Center for atmospheric Research Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM), to investigate the source of the T-I SAO. We performed numerical experiments over a continuous calendar year assuming constant solar and geomagnetic forcing and several configurations of lower atmospheric tidal forcing, lower atmospheric gravity wave forcing, and the obliquity of Earth's rotational axis with respect to the ecliptic plane. The prominent results are as follows: (1) In the absence of lower atmospheric gravity wave and tidal forcing a 30% SAO in globally averaged mass density (with respect to its global annual average) is simulated in the TIME-GCM, suggesting that seasonally-varying Kzz driven by breaking gravity waves is not the primary driver of the T-I SAO; (2) When the Earth's obliquity is set to zero (i.e., perpetual equinox) the T-I SAO is reduced to 2%; (3) When Earth's obliquity is set to 11.75° (i.e., half its actual value), the mass density SAO is 10%; (4) The meridional and vertical transport patterns in the simulations are consistent with the TSM, except that coupling with the upper mesospheric circulation also contributes to the T-I SAO; and (5) Inclusion of lower atmospheric tidal and gravity wave forcing weakens the TSM and thus damps the T-I SAO. These results suggest that the TSM accurately describes the primary source of the T-I SAO.

Silurian carbonate high-energy deposits of potential tsunami origin: Distinguishing lateral redeposition and time averaging using carbon isotope chemostratigraphy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarochowska, Emilia; Munnecke, Axel

2015-01-01

Stable carbon isotope curves are used as a precise stratigraphic tool in the Paleozoic, even though they are commonly based on shallow-water carbonate record, characterized by low stratigraphic completeness. Identification of episodes of large-scale redeposition and erosion may improve δ13Ccarb-based correlations. Here, a series of at least three episodes of high-energy onshore redeposition are described from the Makarivka Member (new unit) of the Ustya Formation from the Homerian (middle Silurian) of Podolia, Ukraine. The Makarivka Member is emplaced within a tidal flat succession. Its most prominent part is divided into a lower polymictic conglomerate of sand- to boulder-sized clasts representing a range of subtidal facies, and an upper heterolithic unit composed of grainstone and mudstone laminae. The aim of the study is to identify the mechanism of deposition of the allochthonous conglomeratic material in this Member. Based on analogies with recent tsunami deposits, the conglomerate is interpreted to reflect the strongest landward-directed current in the tsunami run-up phase, and the heterolith - alternating high-density landward currents, stagnant intervals allowing mud and land-derived debris to settle, and backwash flows. The tsunamite was deposited during an interval of decreasing isotopic values of the Mulde excursion, a global δ13C excursion reaching + 5.2‰ in the studied sections. Clast redeposition in an interval characterized by rapidly changing δ13Ccarb offers the opportunity to evaluate the degree of temporal and spatial averaging caused by the tsunami. The clasts in the polymictic conglomerate show scattered δ13Ccarb values (- 0.3‰ to + 2.1‰) compared to homogenous (1.3‰ to 1.6‰) values in the matrix. The presence of clasts characterized by low δ13Ccarb values is explained by their decrease with bathymetry rather than erosion of pre-excursion strata, whereas high values characterize material entrained from the sea-floor and strata directly underlying the tsunamite. Close (1.3‰ and 1.5‰) average δ13Ccarb values suggest that the matrix of the conglomerate is potentially a product of clast grinding.

Global upper ocean heat storage response to radiative forcing from changing solar irradiance and increasing greenhouse gas/aerosol concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, Warren B.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Lean, Judith

1998-09-01

We constructed gridded fields of diabatic heat storage changes in the upper ocean from 20°S to 60°N from historical temperature profiles collected from 1955 to 1996. We filtered these 42 year records for periods of 8 to 15 years and 15 to 30 years, producing depth-weighted vertical average temperature (DVT) changes from the sea surface to the top of the main pycnocline. Basin and global averages of these DVT changes reveal decadal and interdecadal variability in phase across the Indian, Pacific, Atlantic, and Global Oceans, each significantly correlated with changing surface solar radiative forcing at a lag of 0+/-2 years. Decadal and interdecadal changes in global average DVT are 0.06°+/-0.01°K and 0.04°K+/-0.01°K, respectively, the same as those expected from consideration of the Stefan-Boltzmann radiation balance (i.e., 0.3°K per Wm-2) in response to 0.1% changes in surface solar radiative forcing of 0.2 Wm-2 and 0.15 Wm-2, respectively. Global spatial patterns of DVT changes are similar to temperature changes simulated in coupled ocean-atmosphere models, suggesting that natural modes of Earth's variability are phase-locked to the solar irradiance cycle. A trend in global average DVT of 0.15°K over this 42 year record cannot be explained by changing surface solar radiative forcing. But when we consider the 0.5 Wm-2 increase in surface radiative forcing estimated from the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas and aerosol (GGA) concentrations over this period [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1995], the Stefan-Boltzmann radiation balance yields this observed change. Moreover, the sum of solar and GGA surface radiative forcing can explain the relatively sharp increase in global and basin average DVT in the late 1970's.

Global projections of extreme sea levels in view of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vousdoukas, M. I.; Feyen, L.; Voukouvalas, E.; Mentaschi, L.; Verlaan, M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Jackson, L. P.

2017-12-01

Global warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world's coasts. The present contribution aims to present global ESL projections obtained by combining dynamic simulations of all the major ESL components during the present century, considering the latest CMIP5 projections for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Baseline values are obtained combining global re-analyses of tides, waves, and storm surges, including the effects of tropical cyclones. The global average RSLR is projected around 20 and 24 cm by the 2050s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively and is projected to reach 46 and 67 cm by the year 2100. The largest increases in MSL are projected along the South Pacific, Australia and West Africa, while the smaller RSLR is projected around East North America, and Europe. Contributions from waves and storm surges show a very weak increasing global trend, which becomes statistically significant only towards the end of the century and under RCP8.5. However, for areas like the East China Sea, Sea of Japan, Alaska, East Bering Sea, as well as the Southern Ocean, climate extremes could increase up to 15%. By the end of this century the 100-year event ESL along the world's coastlines will on average increase by 48 cm for RCP4.5 and 75 cm for RCP8.5. The strongest rise is projected along the Southern Ocean exceeding 1 m under RCP8.5 by the end of the century. Increase exceeding 80 cm is projected for East Asia, West North America, East South America, and the North Indian Ocean. Considering always the business as usual and the year 2100, the lowest increase in ESL100 is projected along the East North America and Europe (below 50 cm). The present findings indicate that, under both RCPs, by the year 2050 the present day 100-year event will occur every 5 years along a large part of the tropics, rendering coastal zones exposed to intermittent flood hazard.

Global health and justice.

PubMed

Dwyer, James

2005-10-01

In Australia, Japan, Sweden, and Switzerland, the average life expectancy is now greater than 80 years. But in Angola, Malawi, Sierra Leone, and Zimbabwe, the average life expectancy is less than 40 years. The situation is even worse than these statistics suggest because average figures tend to mask inequalities within countries. What are we to make of a world with such inequal health prospects? What does justice demand in terms of global health? To address these problems, I characterize justice at the local level, at the domestic or social level, and at the international or global level. Because social conditions, structures, and institutions have such a profound influence on the health of populations, I begin by focusing attention on the relationship between social justice and health prospects. Then I go on to discuss health prospects and the problem of global justice. Here I distinguish two views: a cosmopolitan view and a political view of global justice. In my account of global justice, I modify and use the political view that John Rawls developed in The Law of Peoples. I try to show why an adequate political account must include three duties: a duty not to harm, a duty to reconstruct international arrangements, and a duty to assist.

Multiwavelength Comparison of Modeled and Measured Remote Tropospheric Aerosol Backscatter Over Pacific Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cutten, D. R.; Pueschel, R. F.; Srivastava, V.; Clarke, A. D.; Rothermel, J.; Spinhirne, J. D.; Menzies, R. T.

1996-01-01

Aerosol concentrations and size distributions in the middle and upper troposphere over the remote Pacific Ocean were measured with a forward scattering spectrometer probe (FSSP) on the NASA DC-8 aircraft during NASA's Global Backscatter Experiment (GLOBE) in May-June 1990. The FSSP size channels were recalibrated based on refractive index estimates from flight-level aerosol volatility measurements with a collocated laser optical particle counter (LOPC). The recalibrated FSSP size distributions were averaged over 100-s intervals, fitted with lo-normal distributions and used to calculate aerosol backscatter coefficients at selected wavelengths. The FSSP-derived backscatter estimates were averaged over 300-s intervals to reduce large random fluctuations. The smoothed FSSP aerosol backscatter coefficients were then compared with LOPC-derived backscatter values and with backscatter measured at or near flight level from four lidar systems operating at 0.53, 1.06, 9.11, 9.25, and 10.59 micrometers. Agreement between FSSP-derived and lidar-measured backscatter was generally best at flight level in homogeneous aerosol fields and at high backscatter values. FSSP data often underestimated low backscatter values especially at the longer wavelengths due to poor counting statistics for larger particles (greater than 0.8 micrometers diameter) that usually dominate aerosol backscatter at these wavelengths. FSSP data also underestimated backscatter at shorter wavelengths when particles smaller than the FSSP lower cutoff diameter (0.35 micrometers) made significant contributions to the total backscatter.

Quantification of soil respiration in forest ecosystems across China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Xinzhang; Peng, Changhui; Zhao, Zhengyong; Zhang, Zhiting; Guo, Baohua; Wang, Weifeng; Jiang, Hong; Zhu, Qiuan

2014-09-01

We collected 139 estimates of the annual forest soil CO2 flux and 173 estimates of the Q10 value (the temperature sensitivity) assembled from 90 published studies across Chinese forest ecosystems. We analyzed the annual soil respiration (Rs) rates and the temperature sensitivities of seven forest ecosystems, including evergreen broadleaf forests (EBF), deciduous broadleaf forests (DBF), broadleaf and needleleaf mixed forests (BNMF), evergreen needleleaf forests (ENF), deciduous needleleaf forests (DNF), bamboo forests (BF) and shrubs (SF). The results showed that the mean annual Rs rate was 33.65 t CO2 ha-1 year-1 across Chinese forest ecosystems. Rs rates were significantly different (P < 0.001) among the seven forest types, and were significantly and positively influenced by mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and actual evapotranspiration (AET); but negatively affected by latitude and elevation. The mean Q10 value of 1.28 was lower than the world average (1.4-2.0). The Q10 values derived from the soil temperature at a depth of 5 cm varied among forest ecosystems by an average of 2.46 and significantly decreased with the MAT but increased with elevation and latitude. Moreover, our results suggested that an artificial neural network (ANN) model can effectively predict Rs across Chinese forest ecosystems. This study contributes to better understanding of Rs across Chinese forest ecosystems and their possible responses to global warming.

Interleukin (IL)-1A and IL-6: Applications to the predictive diagnostic testing of radiation pneumonitis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen Yuhchyau; Hyrien, Ollivier; Williams, Jacqueline

2005-05-01

Purpose: To explore the application of interleukin (IL)-1{alpha} and IL-6 measurements in the predictive diagnostic testing for symptomatic radiation pneumonitis (RP). Methods and materials: In a prospective protocol investigating RP and cytokines, IL-1{alpha} and IL-6 values were analyzed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay from serial weekly blood samples of patients receiving chest radiation. We analyzed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) over selected threshold values for both cytokines in the application to diagnostic testing. Results: The average coefficient of variation was 51% of the weekly mean IL-1{alpha} level and 39% of the weekly mean IL-6 value.more » Interleukin 1{alpha} and IL-6 became positively correlated with time. Specificity for both cytokines was better than sensitivity. IL-6 globally outperformed IL-1{alpha} in predicting RP, with higher PPV and NPV. Conclusions: Our data demonstrate the feasibility of applying IL-1{alpha} and IL-6 measurements of blood specimens to predict RP. Interleukin-6 measurements offer stronger positive predictive value than IL-1{alpha}. This application might be further explored in a larger sample of patients.« less

Global and regional annual brain volume loss rates in physiological aging.

PubMed

Schippling, Sven; Ostwaldt, Ann-Christin; Suppa, Per; Spies, Lothar; Manogaran, Praveena; Gocke, Carola; Huppertz, Hans-Jürgen; Opfer, Roland

2017-03-01

The objective is to estimate average global and regional percentage brain volume loss per year (BVL/year) of the physiologically ageing brain. Two independent, cross-sectional single scanner cohorts of healthy subjects were included. The first cohort (n = 248) was acquired at the Medical Prevention Center (MPCH) in Hamburg, Germany. The second cohort (n = 316) was taken from the Open Access Series of Imaging Studies (OASIS). Brain parenchyma (BP), grey matter (GM), white matter (WM), corpus callosum (CC), and thalamus volumes were calculated. A non-parametric technique was applied to fit the resulting age-volume data. For each age, the BVL/year was derived from the age-volume curves. The resulting BVL/year curves were compared between the two cohorts. For the MPCH cohort, the BVL/year curve of the BP was an increasing function starting from 0.20% at the age of 35 years increasing to 0.52% at 70 years (corresponding values for GM ranged from 0.32 to 0.55%, WM from 0.02 to 0.47%, CC from 0.07 to 0.48%, and thalamus from 0.25 to 0.54%). Mean absolute difference between BVL/year trajectories across the age range of 35-70 years was 0.02% for BP, 0.04% for GM, 0.04% for WM, 0.11% for CC, and 0.02% for the thalamus. Physiological BVL/year rates were remarkably consistent between the two cohorts and independent from the scanner applied. Average BVL/year was clearly age and compartment dependent. These results need to be taken into account when defining cut-off values for pathological annual brain volume loss in disease models, such as multiple sclerosis.

An integrated model of water resources optimization allocation based on projection pursuit model - Grey wolf optimization method in a transboundary river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Sen; Lu, Hongwei

2018-04-01

Under the effects of global change, water crisis ranks as the top global risk in the future decade, and water conflict in transboundary river basins as well as the geostrategic competition led by it is most concerned. This study presents an innovative integrated PPMGWO model of water resources optimization allocation in a transboundary river basin, which is integrated through the projection pursuit model (PPM) and Grey wolf optimization (GWO) method. This study uses the Songhua River basin and 25 control units as examples, adopting the PPMGWO model proposed in this study to allocate the water quantity. Using water consumption in all control units in the Songhua River basin in 2015 as reference to compare with optimization allocation results of firefly algorithm (FA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithms as well as the PPMGWO model, results indicate that the average difference between corresponding allocation results and reference values are 0.195 bil m3, 0.151 bil m3, and 0.085 bil m3, respectively. Obviously, the average difference of the PPMGWO model is the lowest and its optimization allocation result is closer to reality, which further confirms the reasonability, feasibility, and accuracy of the PPMGWO model. And then the PPMGWO model is adopted to simulate allocation of available water quantity in Songhua River basin in 2018, 2020, and 2030. The simulation results show water quantity which could be allocated in all controls demonstrates an overall increasing trend with reasonable and equal exploitation and utilization of water resources in the Songhua River basin in future. In addition, this study has a certain reference value and application meaning to comprehensive management and water resources allocation in other transboundary river basins.

Criterion validity and accuracy of global positioning satellite and data logging devices for wheelchair tennis court movement

PubMed Central

Sindall, Paul; Lenton, John P.; Whytock, Katie; Tolfrey, Keith; Oyster, Michelle L.; Cooper, Rory A.; Goosey-Tolfrey, Victoria L.

2013-01-01

Purpose To compare the criterion validity and accuracy of a 1 Hz non-differential global positioning system (GPS) and data logger device (DL) for the measurement of wheelchair tennis court movement variables. Methods Initial validation of the DL device was performed. GPS and DL were fitted to the wheelchair and used to record distance (m) and speed (m/second) during (a) tennis field (b) linear track, and (c) match-play test scenarios. Fifteen participants were monitored at the Wheelchair British Tennis Open. Results Data logging validation showed underestimations for distance in right (DLR) and left (DLL) logging devices at speeds >2.5 m/second. In tennis-field tests, GPS underestimated distance in five drills. DLL was lower than both (a) criterion and (b) DLR in drills moving forward. Reversing drill direction showed that DLR was lower than (a) criterion and (b) DLL. GPS values for distance and average speed for match play were significantly lower than equivalent values obtained by DL (distance: 2816 (844) vs. 3952 (1109) m, P = 0.0001; average speed: 0.7 (0.2) vs. 1.0 (0.2) m/second, P = 0.0001). Higher peak speeds were observed in DL (3.4 (0.4) vs. 3.1 (0.5) m/second, P = 0.004) during tennis match play. Conclusions Sampling frequencies of 1 Hz are too low to accurately measure distance and speed during wheelchair tennis. GPS units with a higher sampling rate should be advocated in further studies. Modifications to existing DL devices may be required to increase measurement precision. Further research into the validity of movement devices during match play will further inform the demands and movement patterns associated with wheelchair tennis. PMID:23820154

The OceanFlux Greenhouse Gases methodology for deriving a sea surface climatology of CO2 fugacity in support of air-sea gas flux studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goddijn-Murphy, L. M.; Woolf, D. K.; Land, P. E.; Shutler, J. D.; Donlon, C.

2015-07-01

Climatologies, or long-term averages, of essential climate variables are useful for evaluating models and providing a baseline for studying anomalies. The Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) has made millions of global underway sea surface measurements of CO2 publicly available, all in a uniform format and presented as fugacity, fCO2. As fCO2 is highly sensitive to temperature, the measurements are only valid for the instantaneous sea surface temperature (SST) that is measured concurrently with the in-water CO2 measurement. To create a climatology of fCO2 data suitable for calculating air-sea CO2 fluxes, it is therefore desirable to calculate fCO2 valid for a more consistent and averaged SST. This paper presents the OceanFlux Greenhouse Gases methodology for creating such a climatology. We recomputed SOCAT's fCO2 values for their respective measurement month and year using monthly composite SST data on a 1° × 1° grid from satellite Earth observation and then extrapolated the resulting fCO2 values to reference year 2010. The data were then spatially interpolated onto a 1° × 1° grid of the global oceans to produce 12 monthly fCO2 distributions for 2010, including the prediction errors of fCO2 produced by the spatial interpolation technique. The partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is also provided for those who prefer to use pCO2. The CO2 concentration difference between ocean and atmosphere is the thermodynamic driving force of the air-sea CO2 flux, and hence the presented fCO2 distributions can be used in air-sea gas flux calculations together with climatologies of other climate variables.

Assessing the urban solar energy resource potential of Davao City, Philippines, using LiDAR Digital Surface Model (DSM) and GRASS GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teves, Justine; Sola, Eula Fae; Pintor, Ben Hur; Ang, Ma. Rosario Concepcion

2016-10-01

Solar energy is emerging as one of the top options for renewable energy sources in the Philippines, with largescale solar photovoltaic (PV) farms being built all over the country. Solar energy resource in the urban environment has great potential in making a city self-sustaining, but has not been fully explored for the country. In order to represent its potential, reliable resource assessment should be done. This study aims to assess the available solar energy resource in Davao City, a trade and commerce hub in southern Philippines. The functions of GRASS GIS, specifically the r.sun module, in modelling incoming solar radiation is discussed, along with the use of a one-meter LiDAR Digital Surface Model (DSM) and Linke Turbidity coefficients as inputs. The average Julian day of each month was used to compute the Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI) values under clear-sky or cloudless conditions. To account for the effects of the clouds in the study area, the clear-sky indices (Kc) were computed using data from solar recording stations of the Bureau of Soils and Water Management (BSWM) found within and around the region. These were multiplied to the modelled clear-sky GHI rasters to get the real-sky GHI. The results show that the city's average GHI potential ranges from 2693.79 Wh/m2 and 4453.13 Wh/m2. Average values are particularly higher around the months of March and April, while lower values are seen in the months of November and January. Areas with higher potential are seen in the southern portion of the city, consistent in built-up areas.

[Genetic structure in five Phlebotominae (Lutzomyia spp.), townsendi series, verrucarum group, in Colombia (Diptera: Prychodidae)].

PubMed

Hernández, Claribel; Ruiz-García, Manuel; Munstermann, Leonard; Ferro, Cristina

2008-12-01

Sixteen isoenzyme patterns were analyzed for five Colombian Lutzomyia species. The average unbiased expected heterozygosity levels ranged from 0.098 (Lu. youngi) to 0.215 (Lu. torrvida). The five species samples, taken all the isoenzymes employed, were significantly deviated from the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium by homozygous excess with classical as well as Markov chain exact tests. Possible causes: (1) Wahlund effect within populations due to subdivision and/or sampling. Endogamy could be discarded because these loci were affected by highly different levels of homozygous excess. (2) Null alleles could be not discarded, at least for some isoenzymes. The hierarchical Wright's F analysis showed high and significant values for each parameter. The average F(IT) value was 0.655 with a conspicous homozygous excess at a global level (all species taken together); the average F(IS) value was significantly positive (0.515) as well, with homozygous excess within each species. The genetic heterogeneity between the fives species was noteworthy (F(ST) 0.288), indicating clear genetic differentiation. The more related species pairs were Lu. longiflocosa-Lu. torvida (0.959) and Lu torvida-Lu. spinicrassa (0.960); while Lu. torvida-Lu. youngi (0.805) and Lu. quasitownsendi-Lu. youngi (0.796) were the most divergent (Nei's genetic identity matrix). UPGMA and Wagner algorithms showed that the most divergent species was Lu. youngi, whereas the most related were Lu. longiflocosa-Lu. torvida and Lu torvida-Lu. spinicrassa. A spatial autocorrelation analysis (Moran's I index) revealed a very weak, or inexistent spatial structure, which means that the speciation events between these species were independent from the geographic distances from where they currently live.

The HMI Magnetic Activity Index for Local-Area Helioseismology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogart, Richard S.; Baldner, Charles

2017-08-01

In order to provide context for the mapping of sub-surface flows and thermal structure by local helioseismic techniques and the study of their relation to local magnetic activity, a local Magnetic Activity Index (MAI) was introduced. The MAI provides an appropriate index value corresponding precisely to the extent in space and time of each region analyzed. It is intended to be a measure of the total magnetic flux in the region. Hemispheric averages of the MAI are very well correlated with independent global measures of solar magnetic activity. Improvements in the determination of the MAI from Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) measurements have revealed statistical anomalies affecting a small but significant number of high-cadence (45-sec) magnetograms. We describe modifications to the MAI being explored, the identification and treatment of anomalous magnetic field values, and explore likely causes.

Analysis of direct solar ultraviolet irradiance measurements in the French Alps. Retrieval of turbidity and ozone column amount.

PubMed

Lenoble, Jacqueline; de la Casinière, Alain; Cabot, Thierry

2004-05-20

Direct ultraviolet spectral solar irradiance is regularly obtained by the difference between global and diffuse irradiances at the French Alpine station of Briançon; the data of years 2001 and 2002 are analyzed in this paper. Comparison with modeled values is used for cloud screening, and an average UV-A aerosol optical depth is used as an index of turbidity; it is found to be around 0.05 for the clear winter days and around 0.2 in summer. Langley plots are used to verify the instrument calibration; they confirm the expected uncertainty smaller than 5%. The ozone total column amount is estimated with an uncertainty between -3 and Dobson units; comparisons with TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) overpass values shows agreement within the expected uncertainties of both instruments.

Space-time description of dengue outbreaks in Cruzeiro, São Paulo, in 2006 and 2011.

PubMed

Carvalho, Renata Marzzano de; Nascimento, Luiz Fernando Costa

2014-01-01

to identify patterns in the spatial and temporal distribution of cases of dengue fever occurring in the city of Cruzeiro, state of São Paulo (SP). an ecological and exploratory study was undertaken using spatial analysis tools and data from dengue cases obtained on the SinanNet. The analysis was carried out by area, using the IBGE census sector as a unit. The months of March to June 2006 and 2011 were assessed, revealing progress of the disease. TerraView 3.3.1 was used to calculate the Global Moran's I, month to month, and the Kernel estimator. in the year 2006, 691 cases of dengue fever (rate of 864.2 cases/100,000 inhabitants) were georeferenced; and the Moran's I and p-values were significant in the months of April and May (IM = 0.28; p = 0.01; IM = 0.20; p = 0.01) with higher densities in the central, north, northeast and south regions. In the year 2011, 654 cases of dengue fever (rate of 886.8 cases/100,000 inhabitants) were georeferenced; and the Moran's I and p-values were significant in the months of April and May (IM = 0.28; p = 0.01; IM = 0.16; p = 0.05) with densities in the same regions as 2006. The Global Moran's I is a global measure of spatial autocorrelation, which indicates the degree of spatial association in the set of information from the product in relation to the average. The I varies between -1 and +1 and can be attributed to a level of significance (p-value). The positive value points to a positive or direct spatial autocorrelation. we were able to identify patterns in the spatial and temporal distribution of dengue cases occurring in the city of Cruzeiro, SP, and locate the census sectors where the outbreak began and how it evolved.

Replacing dark energy by silent virialisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roukema, Boudewijn F.

2018-02-01

Context. Standard cosmological N-body simulations have background scale factor evolution that is decoupled from non-linear structure formation. Prior to gravitational collapse, kinematical backreaction (𝒬𝒟) justifies this approach in a Newtonian context. Aims: However, the final stages of a gravitational collapse event are sudden; a globally imposed smooth expansion rate forces at least one expanding region to suddenly and instantaneously decelerate in compensation for the virialisation event. This is relativistically unrealistic. A more conservative hypothesis is to allow non-collapsed domains to continue their volume evolution according to the 𝒬𝒟 Zel'dovich approximation (QZA). We aim to study the inferred average expansion under this "silent" virialisation hypothesis. Methods: We set standard (MPGRAFIC) EdS 3-torus (T3) cosmological N-body initial conditions. Using RAMSES, we partitioned the volume into domains and called the DTFE library to estimate the per-domain initial values of the three invariants of the extrinsic curvature tensor that determine the QZA. We integrated the Raychaudhuri equation in each domain using the INHOMOG library, and adopted the stable clustering hypothesis to represent virialisation (VQZA). We spatially averaged to obtain the effective global scale factor. We adopted an early-epoch-normalised EdS reference-model Hubble constant H1EdS = 37.7 km s-1 /Mpc and an effective Hubble constant Heff,0 = 67.7 km s-1 /Mpc. Results: From 2000 simulations at resolution 2563, we find that reaching a unity effective scale factor at 13.8 Gyr (16% above EdS), occurs for an averaging scale of L13.813 = 2.5-0.1+0.1 Mpc/heff. Relativistically interpreted, this corresponds to strong average negative curvature evolution, with the mean (median) curvature functional Ωℛ𝒟 growing from zero to about 1.5-2 by the present. Over 100 realisations, the virialisation fraction and super-EdS expansion correlate strongly at fixed cosmological time. Conculsions. Thus, starting from EdS initial conditions and averaging on a typical non-linear structure formation scale, the VQZA dark-energy-free average expansion matches ΛCDM expansion to first order. The software packages used here are free-licensed.

Evaluation of the Simulation of Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Coverages by Eleven Major Global Climate Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parksinson, Claire; Vinnikov, Konstantin Y.; Cavalieri, Donald J.

2005-01-01

Comparison of polar sea ice results from 11 major global climate models and satellite-derived observations for 1979-2004 reveals that each of the models is simulating seasonal cycles that are phased at least approximately correctly in both hemispheres. Each is also simulating various key aspects of the observed ice cover distributions, such as winter ice not only throughout the central Arctic basin but also throughout Hudson Bay, despite its relatively low latitudes. However, some of the models simulate too much ice, others too little ice (in some cases varying depending on hemisphere and/or season), and some match the observations better in one season versus another. Several models do noticeably better in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere, and one does noticeably better in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere all simulate monthly average ice extents to within +/-5.1 x 10(exp 6)sq km of the observed ice extent throughout the year; and in the Southern Hemisphere all except one simulate the monthly averages to within +/-6.3 x 10(exp 6) sq km of the observed values. All the models properly simulate a lack of winter ice to the west of Norway; however, most do not obtain as much absence of ice immediately north of Norway as the observations show, suggesting an under simulation of the North Atlantic Current. The spread in monthly averaged ice extents amongst the 11 model simulations is greater in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere and greatest in the Southern Hemisphere winter and spring.

Global Economic Impact of Dental Diseases.

PubMed

Listl, S; Galloway, J; Mossey, P A; Marcenes, W

2015-10-01

Reporting the economic burden of oral diseases is important to evaluate the societal relevance of preventing and addressing oral diseases. In addition to treatment costs, there are indirect costs to consider, mainly in terms of productivity losses due to absenteeism from work. The purpose of the present study was to estimate the direct and indirect costs of dental diseases worldwide to approximate the global economic impact. Estimation of direct treatment costs was based on a systematic approach. For estimation of indirect costs, an approach suggested by the World Health Organization's Commission on Macroeconomics and Health was employed, which factored in 2010 values of gross domestic product per capita as provided by the International Monetary Fund and oral burden of disease estimates from the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study. Direct treatment costs due to dental diseases worldwide were estimated at US$298 billion yearly, corresponding to an average of 4.6% of global health expenditure. Indirect costs due to dental diseases worldwide amounted to US$144 billion yearly, corresponding to economic losses within the range of the 10 most frequent global causes of death. Within the limitations of currently available data sources and methodologies, these findings suggest that the global economic impact of dental diseases amounted to US$442 billion in 2010. Improvements in population oral health may imply substantial economic benefits not only in terms of reduced treatment costs but also because of fewer productivity losses in the labor market. © International & American Associations for Dental Research 2015.

Enhancing Global Competitiveness: Benchmarking Airline Operational Performance in Highly Regulated Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowen, Brent D.; Headley, Dean E.; Kane, Karisa D.

1998-01-01

Enhancing competitiveness in the global airline industry is at the forefront of attention with airlines, government, and the flying public. The seemingly unchecked growth of major airline alliances is heralded as an enhancement to global competition. However, like many mega-conglomerates, mega-airlines will face complications driven by size regardless of the many recitations of enhanced efficiency. Outlined herein is a conceptual model to serve as a decision tool for policy-makers, managers, and consumers of airline services. This model is developed using public data for the United States (U.S.) major airline industry available from the U/S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Transportation Safety Board, and other public and private sector sources. Data points include number of accidents, pilot deviations, operational performance indicators, flight problems, and other factors. Data from these sources provide opportunity to develop a model based on a complex dot product equation of two vectors. A row vector is weighted for importance by a key informant panel of government, industry, and consumer experts, while a column vector is established with the factor value. The resulting equation, known as the national Airline Quality Rating (AQR), where Q is quality, C is weight, and V is the value of the variables, is stated Q=C[i1-19] x V[i1-19]. Looking at historical patterns of AQR results provides the basis for establishment of an industry benchmark for the purpose of enhancing airline operational performance. A 7 year average of overall operational performance provides the resulting benchmark indicator. Applications from this example can be applied to the many competitive environments of the global industry and assist policy-makers faced with rapidly changing regulatory challenges.

Global, Hemispheric, and Zonal Temperature Deviations Derived From a 63-Station Radiosonde Network

DOE Data Explorer

Angell, J. K. [NOAA, Air Resources Laboratory

2011-01-01

Surface temperatures and thickness-derived temperatures from a 63-station, globally distributed radiosonde network have been used to estimate global, hemispheric, and zonal annual and seasonal temperature deviations. Most of the temperature values used were column-mean temperatures, obtained from the differences in height (thickness) between constant-pressure surfaces at individual radiosonde stations. The pressure-height data before 1980 were obtained from published values in Monthly Climatic Data for the World. Between 1980 and 1990, Angell used data from both the Climatic Data for the World and the Global Telecommunications System (GTS) Network received at the National Meteorological Center. Between 1990 and 1995, the data were obtained only from GTS, and since 1995 the data have been obtained from National Center for Atmospheric Research files. The data are evaluated as deviations from the mean based on the interval 1958-1977. The station deviations have been averaged (with equal weighting) to obtain annual and seasonal temperature deviations for the globe, the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, and the following latitudinal zones: North (60° N-90° N) and South (60° S-90° S) Polar; North (30° N-60° N) and South (30° S-60° S) Temperate; North (10° N-30° N) and South (10° S-30° S) Subtropical; Tropical(30° S-30° N); and Equatorial (10° S-10° N). The seasonal calculations are for the standard meteorological seasons (i.e., winter is defined as December, January, and February; spring is March, April, and May, etc.) and the annual calculations are for December through the following November (i.e., for the four meteorological seasons). For greater details, see Angell and Korshover (1983) and Angell (1988, 1991)

Measuring global water security towards sustainable development goals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gain, Animesh K.; Giupponi, Carlo; Wada, Yoshihide

2016-12-01

Water plays an important role in underpinning equitable, stable and productive societies and ecosystems. Hence, United Nations recognized ensuring water security as one (Goal 6) of the seventeen sustainable development goals (SDGs). Many international river basins are likely to experience ‘low water security’ over the coming decades. Water security is rooted not only in the physical availability of freshwater resources relative to water demand, but also on social and economic factors (e.g. sound water planning and management approaches, institutional capacity to provide water services, sustainable economic policies). Until recently, advanced tools and methods are available for the assessment of water scarcity. However, quantitative and integrated—physical and socio-economic—approaches for spatial analysis of water security at global level are not available yet. In this study, we present a spatial multi-criteria analysis framework to provide a global assessment of water security. The selected indicators are based on Goal 6 of SDGs. The term ‘security’ is conceptualized as a function of ‘availability’, ‘accessibility to services’, ‘safety and quality’, and ‘management’. The proposed global water security index (GWSI) is calculated by aggregating indicator values on a pixel-by-pixel basis, using the ordered weighted average method, which allows for the exploration of the sensitivity of final maps to different attitudes of hypothetical policy makers. Our assessment suggests that countries of Africa, South Asia and Middle East experience very low water security. Other areas of high water scarcity, such as some parts of United States, Australia and Southern Europe, show better GWSI values, due to good performance of management, safety and quality, and accessibility. The GWSI maps show the areas of the world in which integrated strategies are needed to achieve water related targets of the SDGs particularly in the African and Asian continents.

Measuring Global Water Security Towards Sustainable Development Goals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gain, Animesh K.; Giupponi, Carlo; Wada, Yoshihide

2016-01-01

Water plays an important role in underpinning equitable, stable and productive societies and ecosystems. Hence, United Nations recognized ensuring water security as one (Goal 6) of the seventeen sustainable development goals (SDGs). Many international river basins are likely to experience 'low water security' over the coming decades. Water security is rooted not only in the physical availability of freshwater resources relative to water demand, but also on social and economic factors (e.g. sound water planning and management approaches, institutional capacity to provide water services, sustainable economic policies). Until recently, advanced tools and methods are available for the assessment of water scarcity. However, quantitative and integrated-physical and socio-economic-approaches for spatial analysis of water security at global level are not available yet. In this study, we present a spatial multi-criteria analysis framework to provide a global assessment of water security. The selected indicators are based on Goal 6 of SDGs. The term 'security' is conceptualized as a function of 'availability', 'accessibility to services', 'safety and quality', and 'management'. The proposed global water security index (GWSI) is calculated by aggregating indicator values on a pixel-by-pixel basis, using the ordered weighted average method, which allows for the exploration of the sensitivity of final maps to different attitudes of hypothetical policy makers. Our assessment suggests that countries of Africa, South Asia and Middle East experience very low water security. Other areas of high water scarcity, such as some parts of United States, Australia and Southern Europe, show better GWSI values, due to good performance of management, safety and quality, and accessibility. The GWSI maps show the areas of the world in which integrated strategies are needed to achieve water related targets of the SDGs particularly in the African and Asian continents.

Comprehensive theoretical study towards the accurate proton affinity values of naturally occurring amino acids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dinadayalane, T. C.; Sastry, G. Narahari; Leszczynski, Jerzy

Systematic quantum chemical studies of Hartree-Fock (HF) and second-order Møller-Plesset (MP2) methods, and B3LYP functional, with a range of basis sets were employed to evaluate proton affinity values of all naturally occurring amino acids. The B3LYP and MP2 in conjunction with 6-311+G(d,p) basis set provide the proton affinity values that are in very good agreement with the experimental results, with an average deviation of ?1 kcal/mol. The number and the relative strength of intramolecular hydrogen bonding play a key role in the proton affinities of amino acids. The computational exploration of the conformers reveals that the global minima conformations of the neutral and protonated amino acids are different in eight cases. The present study reveals that B3LYP/6-311+G(d,p) is a very good choice of technique to evaluate the proton affinities of amino acids and the compounds derived from them reliably and economically.

ADC biomarker for head and neck tumors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pacheco-Bravo, Irlanda; Hidalgo-Tobon, Silvia; Zaragoza, Kena; Reynoso-Noverón, Nancy; De Celis-Alonso, Benito; Delgado-Hernandez, Rosa

2014-11-01

According to the World Cancer Report, by 2020, global incidence of cancer may increase by 50%, which means 15 million new cases. In 2000, malignant tumors were the cause of 12% of the almost 56 million deaths worldwide due to all causes[1-4]. 18 men and 19 women, with an average age of 53 ± 14 years with diagnosis of head and neck cancer were scanned using a 1.5-T MR imaging unit (Signa HDxt; GE Medical Systems). Echo-planar DW imaging was performed in the transverse plane before the contrast material injection. Three b values were applied: 40, 100, and 800 sec/mm2. Primary tumors and nodes were evaluated, with diameters greater than 43 ± 15mm. In our study, ADC data for b-values of 40 showed correlation for identification of malignancy in primary tumors, and in the case of nodes there is a tendency toward malignancy in sequences in which a b-value of 800 is used.

Analysis of forecasting malaria case with climatic factors as predictor in Mandailing Natal Regency: a time series study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aulia, D.; Ayu, S. F.; Matondang, A.

2018-01-01

Malaria is the most contagious global concern. As a public health problem with outbreaks, affect the quality of life and economy, also could lead to death. Therefore, this research is to forecast malaria cases with climatic factors as predictors in Mandailing Natal Regency. The total number of positive malaria cases on January 2008 to December 2016 were taken from health department of Mandailing Natal Regency. Climates data such as rainfall, humidity, and temperature were taken from Center of Statistic Department of Mandailing Natal Regency. E-views ver. 9 is used to analyze this study. Autoregressive integrated average, ARIMA (0,1,1) (1,0,0)12 is the best model to explain the 67,2% variability data in time series study. Rainfall (P value = 0.0005), temperature (P value = 0,0029) and humidity (P value = 0.0001) are significant predictors for malaria transmission. Seasonal adjusted factor (SAF) in November and March shows peak for malaria cases.

A model of global citizenship: antecedents and outcomes.

PubMed

Reysen, Stephen; Katzarska-Miller, Iva

2013-01-01

As the world becomes increasingly interconnected, exposure to global cultures affords individuals opportunities to develop global identities. In two studies, we examine the antecedents and outcomes of identifying with a superordinate identity--global citizen. Global citizenship is defined as awareness, caring, and embracing cultural diversity while promoting social justice and sustainability, coupled with a sense of responsibility to act. Prior theory and research suggest that being aware of one's connection with others in the world (global awareness) and embedded in settings that value global citizenship (normative environment) lead to greater identification with global citizens. Furthermore, theory and research suggest that when global citizen identity is salient, greater identification is related to adherence to the group's content (i.e., prosocial values and behaviors). Results of the present set of studies showed that global awareness (knowledge and interconnectedness with others) and one's normative environment (friends and family support global citizenship) predicted identification with global citizens, and global citizenship predicted prosocial values of intergroup empathy, valuing diversity, social justice, environmental sustainability, intergroup helping, and a felt responsibility to act for the betterment of the world. The relationship between antecedents (normative environment and global awareness) and outcomes (prosocial values) was mediated by identification with global citizens. We discuss the relationship between the present results and other research findings in psychology, the implications of global citizenship for other academic domains, and future avenues of research. Global citizenship highlights the unique effect of taking a global perspective on a multitude of topics relevant to the psychology of everyday actions, environments, and identity.

CropWatch agroclimatic indicators (CWAIs) for weather impact assessment on global agriculture.

PubMed

Gommes, René; Wu, Bingfang; Zhang, Ning; Feng, Xueliang; Zeng, Hongwei; Li, Zhongyuan; Chen, Bo

2017-02-01

CropWatch agroclimatic indicators (CWAIs) are a monitoring tool developed by the CropWatch global crop monitoring system in the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS; www.cropwatch.com.cn , Wu et al Int J Digital Earth 7(2):113-137, 2014, Wu et al Remote Sens 7:3907-3933, 2015). Contrary to most other environmental and agroclimatic indicators, they are "agronomic value-added", i.e. they are spatial values averaged over agricultural areas only and they include a weighting that enhances the contribution of the areas with the largest production potential. CWAIs can be computed for any time interval (starting from dekads) and yield one synthetic value per variable over a specific area and time interval, for instance a national annual value. Therefore, they are very compatible with socio-economic and other variables that are usually reported at regular time intervals over administrative units, such as national environmental or agricultural statistics. Two of the CWAIs are satellite-based (RAIN and Photosynthetically Active radiation, PAR) while the third is ground based (TEMP, air temperature); capitals are used when specifically referring to CWAIs rather than the climate variables in general. The paper first provides an overview of some common agroclimatic indicators, describing their procedural, systemic and normative features in subsequent sections, following the terminology of Binder et al Environ Impact Assess Rev 30:71-81 (2010). The discussion focuses on the systemic and normative aspects: the CWAIs are assessed in terms of their coherent description of the agroclimatic crop environment, at different spatial scales (systemic). The final section shows that the CWAIs retain key statistical properties of the underlying climate variables and that they can be compared to a reference value and used as monitoring and early warning variables (normative).

Economics in “Global Health 2035”: a sensitivity analysis of the value of a life year estimates

PubMed Central

Chang, Angela Y; Robinson, Lisa A; Hammitt, James K; Resch, Stephen C

2017-01-01

Background In “Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation,” The Lancet Commission on Investing in Health (CIH) adds the value of increased life expectancy to the value of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) when assessing national well–being. To value changes in life expectancy, the CIH relies on several strong assumptions to bridge gaps in the empirical research. It finds that the value of a life year (VLY) averages 2.3 times GDP per capita for low– and middle–income countries (LMICs) assuming the changes in life expectancy they experienced from 2000 to 2011 are permanent. Methods The CIH VLY estimate is based on a specific shift in population life expectancy and includes a 50 percent reduction for children ages 0 through 4. We investigate the sensitivity of this estimate to the underlying assumptions, including the effects of income, age, and life expectancy, and the sequencing of the calculations. Findings We find that reasonable alternative assumptions regarding the effects of income, age, and life expectancy may reduce the VLY estimates to 0.2 to 2.1 times GDP per capita for LMICs. Removing the reduction for young children increases the VLY, while reversing the sequencing of the calculations reduces the VLY. Conclusion Because the VLY is sensitive to the underlying assumptions, analysts interested in applying this approach elsewhere must tailor the estimates to the impacts of the intervention and the characteristics of the affected population. Analysts should test the sensitivity of their conclusions to reasonable alternative assumptions. More work is needed to investigate options for improving the approach. PMID:28400950

CropWatch agroclimatic indicators (CWAIs) for weather impact assessment on global agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gommes, René; Wu, Bingfang; Zhang, Ning; Feng, Xueliang; Zeng, Hongwei; Li, Zhongyuan; Chen, Bo

2017-02-01

CropWatch agroclimatic indicators (CWAIs) are a monitoring tool developed by the CropWatch global crop monitoring system in the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS; http://www.cropwatch.com.cn, Wu et al Int J Digital Earth 7(2):113-137, 2014, Wu et al Remote Sens 7:3907-3933, 2015). Contrary to most other environmental and agroclimatic indicators, they are "agronomic value-added", i.e. they are spatial values averaged over agricultural areas only and they include a weighting that enhances the contribution of the areas with the largest production potential. CWAIs can be computed for any time interval (starting from dekads) and yield one synthetic value per variable over a specific area and time interval, for instance a national annual value. Therefore, they are very compatible with socio-economic and other variables that are usually reported at regular time intervals over administrative units, such as national environmental or agricultural statistics. Two of the CWAIs are satellite-based (RAIN and Photosynthetically Active radiation, PAR) while the third is ground based (TEMP, air temperature); capitals are used when specifically referring to CWAIs rather than the climate variables in general. The paper first provides an overview of some common agroclimatic indicators, describing their procedural, systemic and normative features in subsequent sections, following the terminology of Binder et al Environ Impact Assess Rev 30:71-81 (2010). The discussion focuses on the systemic and normative aspects: the CWAIs are assessed in terms of their coherent description of the agroclimatic crop environment, at different spatial scales (systemic). The final section shows that the CWAIs retain key statistical properties of the underlying climate variables and that they can be compared to a reference value and used as monitoring and early warning variables (normative).

Performance assessment of different day-of-the-year-based models for estimating global solar radiation - Case study: Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan, Gasser E.; Youssef, M. Elsayed; Ali, Mohamed A.; Mohamed, Zahraa E.; Shehata, Ali I.

2016-11-01

Different models are introduced to predict the daily global solar radiation in different locations but there is no specific model based on the day of the year is proposed for many locations around the world. In this study, more than 20 years of measured data for daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface are used to develop and validate seven models to estimate the daily global solar radiation by day of the year for ten cities around Egypt as a case study. Moreover, the generalization capability for the best models is examined all over the country. The regression analysis is employed to calculate the coefficients of different suggested models. The statistical indicators namely, RMSE, MABE, MAPE, r and R2 are calculated to evaluate the performance of the developed models. Based on the validation with the available data, the results show that the hybrid sine and cosine wave model and 4th order polynomial model have the best performance among other suggested models. Consequently, these two models coupled with suitable coefficients can be used for estimating the daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface for each city, and also for all the locations around the studied region. It is believed that the established models in this work are applicable and significant for quick estimation for the average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface with higher accuracy. The values of global solar radiation generated by this approach can be utilized in the design and estimation of the performance of different solar applications.

Quantifying Biodiversity Losses Due to Human Consumption: A Global-Scale Footprint Analysis.

PubMed

Wilting, Harry C; Schipper, Aafke M; Bakkenes, Michel; Meijer, Johan R; Huijbregts, Mark A J

2017-03-21

It is increasingly recognized that human consumption leads to considerable losses of biodiversity. This study is the first to systematically quantify these losses in relation to land use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with the production and consumption of (inter)nationally traded goods and services by presenting consumption-based biodiversity losses, in short biodiversity footprint, for 45 countries and world regions globally. Our results showed that (i) the biodiversity loss per citizen shows large variations among countries, with higher values when per-capita income increases; (ii) the share of biodiversity losses due to GHG emissions in the biodiversity footprint increases with income; (iii) food consumption is the most important driver of biodiversity loss in most of the countries and regions, with a global average of 40%; (iv) more than 50% of the biodiversity loss associated with consumption in developed economies occurs outside their territorial boundaries; and (v) the biodiversity footprint per dollar consumed is lower for wealthier countries. The insights provided by our analysis might support policymakers in developing adequate responses to avert further losses of biodiversity when population and incomes increase. Both the mitigation of GHG emissions and land use related reduction options in production and consumption should be considered in strategies to protect global biodiversity.

Estimating water consumption of potential natural vegetation on global dry lands: building an LCA framework for green water flows.

PubMed

Núñez, Montserrat; Pfister, Stephan; Roux, Philippe; Antón, Assumpció

2013-01-01

This study aimed to provide a framework for assessing direct soil-water consumption, also termed green water in the literature, in life cycle assessment (LCA). This was an issue that LCA had not tackled before. The approach, which is applied during the life cycle inventory phase (LCI), consists of quantifying the net change in the evapo(transpi)ration of the production system compared to the natural reference situation. Potential natural vegetation (PNV) is used as the natural reference situation. In order to apply the method, we estimated PNV evapotranspiration adapted to local biogeographic conditions, on global dry lands, where soil-water consumption impacts can be critical. Values are reported at different spatial aggregation levels: 10-arcmin global grid, ecoregions (501 units), biomes (14 units), countries (124 units), continents, and a global average, to facilitate the assessment for different spatial information detail levels available in the LCI. The method is intended to be used in rain-fed agriculture and rainwater harvesting contexts, which includes direct soil moisture uptake by plants and rainwater harvested and then reused in production systems. The paper provides the necessary LCI method and data for further development of impact assessment models and characterization factors to evaluate the environmental effects of the net change in evapo(transpi)ration.

Learning Curve for Seawater Reverse Osmosis Desalination Plants: Capital Cost Trend of the Past, Present, and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldera, Upeksha; Breyer, Christian

2017-12-01

Seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination is expected to play a pivotal role in helping to secure future global water supply. While the global reliance on SWRO plants for water security increases, there is no consensus on how the capital costs of SWRO plants will vary in the future. The aim of this paper is to analyze the past trends of the SWRO capital expenditures (capex) as the historic global cumulative online SWRO capacity increases, based on the learning curve concept. The SWRO capex learning curve is found based on 4,237 plants that came online from 1977 to 2015. A learning rate of 15% is determined, implying that the SWRO capex reduced by 15% when the cumulative capacity was doubled. Based on SWRO capacity annual growth rates of 10% and 20%, by 2030, the global average capex of SWRO plants is found to fall to 1,580 USD/(m3/d) and 1,340 USD/(m3/d), respectively. A learning curve for SWRO capital costs has not been presented previously. This research highlights the potential for decrease in SWRO capex with the increase in installation of SWRO plants and the value of the learning curve approach to estimate future SWRO capex.

Large Decadal Decline of the Arctic Multiyear Ice Cover

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.

2011-01-01

The perennial ice area was drastically reduced to 38% of its climatological average in 2007 but recovered somewhat in 2008, 2009 and 2010 with the areas being 10%, 24%, and 11% higher than in 2007, respectively. However, the trends in the extent and area remain strongly negative at -12.2% and -13.5 %/decade, respectively. The thick component of the perennial ice, called multiyear ice, as detected by satellite data in the winters of 1979 to 2011 was studied and results reveal that the multiyear ice extent and area are declining at an even more rapid rate of -15.1% and -17.2 % per decade, respectively, with record low value in 2008 followed by higher values in 2009, 2010 and 2011. Such high rate in the decline of the thick component of the Arctic ice cover means a reduction in average ice thickness and an even more vulnerable perennial ice cover. The decline of the multiyear ice area from 2007 to 2008 was not as strong as that of the perennial ice area from 2006 to 2007 suggesting a strong role of second year ice melt in the latter. The sea ice cover is shown to be strongly correlated with surface temperature which is increasing at about three times global average in the Arctic but appears weakly correlated with the AO which controls the dynamics of the region. An 8 to 9-year cycle is apparent in the multiyear ice record which could explain in part the slight recovery in the last three years.

Microwave sounding units and global warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gary, Bruce L.; Keihm, Stephen J.

1991-01-01

A recent work of Spencer and Christy (1990) on precise monitoring of global temperature trends from satellites is critically examined. It is tentatively concluded in the present comment that remote sensing using satellite microwave radiometers can in fact provide a means for the monitoring of troposphere-averaged air temperature. However, for this to be successful more than one decade of data will be required to overcome the apparent inherent variability of global average air temperature. It is argued that the data set reported by Spencer and Christy should be subjected to careful review before it is interpreted as evidence of the presence or absence of global warming. In a reply, Christy provides specific responses to the commenters' objections.

A New Approach for Deep Gray Matter Analysis Using Partial-Volume Estimation.

PubMed

Bonnier, Guillaume; Kober, Tobias; Schluep, Myriam; Du Pasquier, Renaud; Krueger, Gunnar; Meuli, Reto; Granziera, Cristina; Roche, Alexis

2016-01-01

The existence of partial volume effects in brain MR images makes it challenging to understand physio-pathological alterations underlying signal changes due to pathology across groups of healthy subjects and patients. In this study, we implement a new approach to disentangle gray and white matter alterations in the thalamus and the basal ganglia. The proposed method was applied to a cohort of early multiple sclerosis (MS) patients and healthy subjects to evaluate tissue-specific alterations related to diffuse inflammatory or neurodegenerative processes. Forty-three relapsing-remitting MS patients and nineteen healthy controls underwent 3T MRI including: (i) fluid-attenuated inversion recovery, double inversion recovery, magnetization-prepared gradient echo for lesion count, and (ii) T1 relaxometry. We applied a partial volume estimation algorithm to T1 relaxometry maps to gray and white matter local concentrations as well as T1 values characteristic of gray and white matter in the thalamus and the basal ganglia. Statistical tests were performed to compare groups in terms of both global T1 values, tissue characteristic T1 values, and tissue concentrations. Significant increases in global T1 values were observed in the thalamus (p = 0.038) and the putamen (p = 0.026) in RRMS patients compared to HC. In the Thalamus, the T1 increase was associated with a significant increase in gray matter characteristic T1 (p = 0.0016) with no significant effect in white matter. The presented methodology provides additional information to standard MR signal averaging approaches that holds promise to identify the presence and nature of diffuse pathology in neuro-inflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases.

Application of method of volume averaging coupled with time resolved PIV to determine transport characteristics of turbulent flows in porous bed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patil, Vishal; Liburdy, James

2012-11-01

Turbulent porous media flows are encountered in catalytic bed reactors and heat exchangers. Dispersion and mixing properties of these flows play an essential role in efficiency and performance. In an effort to understand these flows, pore scale time resolved PIV measurements in a refractive index matched porous bed were made. Pore Reynolds numbers, based on hydraulic diameter and pore average velocity, were varied from 400-4000. Jet-like flows and recirculation regions associated with large scale structures were found to exist. Coherent vortical structures which convect at approximately 0.8 times the pore average velocity were identified. These different flow regions exhibited different turbulent characteristics and hence contributed unequally to global transport properties of the bed. The heterogeneity present within a pore and also from pore to pore can be accounted for in estimating transport properties using the method of volume averaging. Eddy viscosity maps and mean velocity field maps, both obtained from PIV measurements, along with the method of volume averaging were used to predict the dispersion tensor versus Reynolds number. Asymptotic values of dispersion compare well to existing correlations. The role of molecular diffusion was explored by varying the Schmidt number and molecular diffusion was found to play an important role in tracer transport, especially in recirculation regions. Funding by NSF grant 0933857, Particulate and Multiphase Processing.

Global Changes of the Water Cycle Intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Walker, Gregory K.

2003-01-01

In this study, we evaluate numerical simulations of the twentieth century climate, focusing on the changes in the intensity of the global water cycle. A new diagnostic of atmospheric water vapor cycling rate is developed and employed, that relies on constituent tracers predicted at the model time step. This diagnostic is compared to a simplified traditional calculation of cycling rate, based on monthly averages of precipitation and total water content. The mean sensitivity of both diagnostics to variations in climate forcing is comparable. However, the new diagnostic produces systematically larger values and more variability than the traditional average approach. Climate simulations were performed using SSTs of the early (1902-1921) and late (1979- 1998) twentieth century along with the appropriate C02 forcing. In general, the increase of global precipitation with the increases in SST that occurred between the early and late twentieth century is small. However, an increase of atmospheric temperature leads to a systematic increase in total precipitable water. As a result, the residence time of water in the atmosphere increased, indicating a reduction of the global cycling rate. This result was explored further using a number of 50-year climate simulations from different models forced with observed SST. The anomalies and trends in the cycling rate and hydrologic variables of different GCMs are remarkably similar. The global annual anomalies of precipitation show a significant upward trend related to the upward trend of surface temperature, during the latter half of the twentieth century. While this implies an increase in the hydrologic cycle intensity, a concomitant increase of total precipitable water again leads to a decrease in the calculated global cycling rate. An analysis of the land/sea differences shows that the simulated precipitation over land has a decreasing trend while the oceanic precipitation has an upward trend consistent with previous studies and the available observations. The decreasing continental trend in precipitation is located primarily over tropical land regions, with some other regions, such as North America experiencing an increasing trend. Precipitation trends are diagnosed further using the water tracers to delineate the precipitation that occurs because of continental evaporation, as opposed to oceanic evaporation. These diagnostics show that over global land areas, the recycling of continental moisture is decreasing in time. However, the recycling changes are not spatially uniform so that some regions, most notably over the United States, experience continental recycling of water that increases in time.

Parameter estimation applied to Nimbus 6 wide-angle longwave radiation measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, R. N.; Smith, G. L.

1978-01-01

A parameter estimation technique was used to analyze the August 1975 Nimbus 6 Earth radiation budget data to demonstrate the concept of deconvolution. The longwave radiation field at the top of the atmosphere is defined from satellite data by a fifth degree and fifth order spherical harmonic representation. The variations of the major features of the radiation field are defined by analyzing the data separately for each two-day duty cycle. A table of coefficient values for each spherical harmonic representation is given along with global mean, gradients, degree variances, and contour plots. In addition, the entire data set is analyzed to define the monthly average radiation field.

Global land-surface primary productivity based upon Nimbus-7 37 GHz data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choudhury, B. J.

1988-01-01

Accumulation and renewal of organic matter as quantified through net primary productivity (NPP) is considered a very major function of the biosphere, and its estimation is crucial in understanding the carbon cycle. A physically-based model relating NPP to the difference of vertically and horizontally polarized brightness temperatures (Delta T) observed at 37 GHz frequency of the scanning multichannel microwave radiometer on board the Nimbus-7 satellite is used for fitting areally averaged values of NPP and Delta T for five biomes. The land-surface NPP within 80 deg N to 55 deg S is then calculated using the Delta T data and compared with other estimates.

A GCM simulation of the earth-atmosphere radiation balance for winter and summer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, M. L. C.

1979-01-01

The radiation balance of the earth-atmosphere system simulated by using the general circulation model (GCM) of the Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) is examined in regards to its graphical distribution, zonally-averaged distribution, and global mean. Most of the main features of the radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere are reasonably simulated, with some differences in the detailed structure of the patterns and intensities for both summer and winter in comparison with values as derived from Nimbus and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) satellite observations. Both the capability and defects of the model are discussed.

Mercury's helium exosphere after Mariner 10's third encounter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, S. A.; Hartle, R. E.

1977-01-01

From Mariner 10 third encounter UV data, a value of .00045 was calculated as the fraction of the solar wind He++ flux intercepted and captured by Mercury's magnetosphere if the observed He atmosphere is maintained by the solar wind. If an internal source for He prevails, the corresponding upper bound for the global outgassing rate is estimated to be 4.5 x 10 to the 22nd power per sec. A surface temperature distribution was used which satisfies the heat equation over Mercury's entire surface using Mariner 10 determined mean surface thermal characteristics. The means stand off distance of Mercury's magnetopause averaged over Mercury's orbit was also used.

Analysis of photosynthetically active radiation under various sky conditions in Wuhan, Central China.

PubMed

Wang, Lunche; Gong, Wei; Lin, Aiwen; Hu, Bo

2014-10-01

Observations of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and global solar radiation (G) at Wuhan, Central China during 2005-2012 were first reported to investigate PAR variability at different time scales and its PAR fraction (F(p)) under different sky conditions. Both G irradiances (I(g)) and PAR irradiances (I(p)) showed similar seasonal features that peaked in values at noon during summer and reached their lower values in winter. F(p) reached higher values during either sunrise or sunset; lower values of F p appeared at local noon because of the absorption effects of water vapor and clouds on long-wave radiation. There was an inverse relationship between clearness index (K(t)) and F(p); the maximum I(p) decreased by 22.3 % (39.7 %) when sky conditions changed from overcast to cloudless in summer (winter); solar radiation was more affected by cloudiness than the seasonal variation in cloudy skies when compared with that in clear skies. The maximum daily PAR irradiation (R(p)) was 11.89 MJ m⁻² day⁻¹ with an annual average of 4.85 MJ m⁻² day⁻¹. F p was in the range of 29-61.5 % with annual daily average value being about 42 %. Meanwhile, hourly, daily, and monthly relationships between R p and G irradiation (R g) under different sky conditions were investigated. It was discovered that cloudy skies were the dominated sky condition in this region. Finally, a clear-sky PAR model was developed by analyzing the dependence of PAR irradiances on optical air mass under various sky conditions for the whole study period in Central China, which will lay foundations for ecological process study in the near future.

Climate Impacts of CALIPSO-Guided Corrections to Black Carbon Aerosol Vertical Distributions in a Global Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovilakam, Mahesh; Mahajan, Salil; Saravanan, R.; Chang, Ping

2017-10-01

We alleviate the bias in the tropospheric vertical distribution of black carbon aerosols (BC) in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) using the Cloud-Aerosol and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO)-derived vertical profiles. A suite of sensitivity experiments are conducted with 1x, 5x, and 10x the present-day model estimated BC concentration climatology, with (corrected, CC) and without (uncorrected, UC) CALIPSO-corrected BC vertical distribution. The globally averaged top of the atmosphere radiative flux perturbation of CC experiments is ˜8-50% smaller compared to uncorrected (UC) BC experiments largely due to an increase in low-level clouds. The global average surface temperature increases, the global average precipitation decreases, and the ITCZ moves northward with the increase in BC radiative forcing, irrespective of the vertical distribution of BC. Further, tropical expansion metrics for the poleward extent of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley cell (HC) indicate that simulated HC expansion is not sensitive to existing model biases in BC vertical distribution.

Distributions and seasonal variations of dissolved carbohydrates in the Jiaozhou Bay, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Gui-Peng; Zhang, Yan-Ping; Lu, Xiao-Lan; Ding, Hai-Bing

2010-06-01

Surface seawater samples were collected in the Jiaozhou Bay, a typical semi-closed basin located at the western part of the Shandong Peninsula, China, during four cruises. Concentrations of monosaccharides (MCHO), polysaccharides (PCHO) and total dissolved carbohydrates (TCHO) were measured with the 2,4,6-tripyridyl- s-triazine spectroscopic method. Concentrations of TCHO varied from 10.8 to 276.1 μM C for all samples and the ratios of TCHO to dissolved organic carbon (DOC) ranged from 1.1 to 67.9% with an average of 10.1%. This result indicated that dissolved carbohydrates were an important constituent of DOC in the surface seawater of the Jiaozhou Bay. In all samples, the concentrations of MCHO ranged from 2.9 to 65.9 μM C, comprising 46.1 ± 16.6% of TCHO on average, while PCHO ranged from 0.3 to 210.2 μM C, comprising 53.9 ± 16.6% of TCHO on average. As a major part of dissolved carbohydrates, the concentrations of PCHO were higher than those of MCHO. MCHO and PCHO accumulated in January and July, with minimum average concentration in April. The seasonal variation in the ratios of TCHO to DOC was related to water temperature, with high values in January and low values in July and October. The concentrations of dissolved carbohydrates displayed a decreasing trend from the coastal to the central areas. Negative correlations between concentrations of TCHO and salinity in July suggested that riverine input around the Jiaozhou Bay had an important effect on the concentrations of dissolved carbohydrates in surface seawater. The pattern of distributions of MCHO and PCHO reported in this study added to the global picture of dissolved carbohydrates distribution.

Assessment of the water and energy budget simulation of three land surface models: CLM4.5, CoLM2014, and CoLM2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, C.; Lu, H.; Wen, X.

2015-12-01

Land surface model (LSM), which simulates energy, water and momentum exchanges between land and atmosphere, is an important component of Earth System Models (ESM). As shown in CMIP5, different ESMs usually use different LSMs and represent various land surface status. In order to select a land surface model which could be embedded into the ESM developed in Tsinghua University, we firstly evaluate the performance of three LSMs: Community Land Model (CLM4.5) and two different versions of Common Land Model (CoLM2005 and CoLM2014). All of three models were driven by CRUNCEP data and simulation results from 1980 to 2010 were used in this study. Diagnostic data provided by NCAR, global latent and sensible heat flux map estimated by Jung, net radiation from SRB, and in situ observation collected from FluxNet were used as reference data. Two variables, surface runoff and snow depth, were used for evaluating the model performance in water budget simulation, while three variables including net radiation, sensible heat, and latent heat were used for assessing energy budget simulation. For 30 years averaged runoff, global average value of Colm2014 is 0.44mm/day and close to the diagnostic value of 0.75 mm/day, while that of Colm2005 is 0.44mm/day and that of CLM is 0.20mm/day. For snow depth simulation, three models all have overestimation in the Northern Hemisphere and underestimation in the Southern Hemisphere compare to diagnostic data. For 30 years energy budget simulation, at global scale, CoLM2005 performs best in latent heat estimation, CoLM2014 performs best in sensible heat simulation, and CoLM2005 and CoLM2014 make similar performance in net radiation estimation but is still better than CLM. At regional and local scale, comparing to the four years average of flux tower observation, RMSE of CoLM2005 is the smallest for latent heat (9.717 W/m2) , and for sensible heat simulation, RMSE of CoLM2005 (13.048 W/m2) is slightly greater than CLM(10.767 W/m2) but still better than CoLM2014(30.085 W/m2). Our analysis shows that both CoLM 2005 and CoLM 2014 are able to reproduce comparable land surface water and energy fluxes. It implies that the ESM developed in Tsinghua University may use CoLM, a LSM developed and maintained in China, as the land surface component. .

A further contribution to the seasonal variation of weighted mean temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Maohua; Hu, Wusheng

2017-12-01

The weighted mean temperature Tm is a variable parameter in the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) meteorology and the Askne-Nordius zenith wet delay (ZWD) model. Some parameters about the Tm seasonal variation (e.g. the annual mean value, the annual range, the annual and semi-annual amplitudes, and the long-term trend) were discussed before. In this study, some additional results about the Tm seasonal variation on a global scale were found by using the Tm time series at 309 global radiosonde sites. Periodic signals of the annual and semi-annual variations were detected in these Tm time series by using the Lomb-Scargle periodogram. The annual variation is the main component of the periodic Tm in non-tropical regions, while the annual variation or the semiannual variation can be the main component of the periodic Tm in tropics. The mean annual Tm almost keeps constant with the increasing latitude in tropics, while it decreases with the increasing latitude in non-tropical regions. From a global perspective, Tm has an increasing trend of 0.22 K/decade on average, which may be caused by the global warming effects. The annual phase is almost found in about January for the non-tropical regions of the Southern Hemisphere and in about July for the non-tropical regions of the Northern Hemisphere, but it has no clear symmetry in tropics. Unlike the annual phase, the geographical distributions of semi-annual phase do not follow obvious rules. In non-tropical regions, the maximum and minimum Tm of the seasonal model are usually found in respective summer and winter days while the maximum and minimum Tm are distributed over a whole year but not in any fixed seasons for tropical regions. The seasonal model errors increase with the increasing value of annual amplitude. A primary reason for the irregular seasonal variation in tropics is that Tm has rather small variations in this region.

Likelihood ratios for glaucoma diagnosis using spectral-domain optical coherence tomography.

PubMed

Lisboa, Renato; Mansouri, Kaweh; Zangwill, Linda M; Weinreb, Robert N; Medeiros, Felipe A

2013-11-01

To present a methodology for calculating likelihood ratios for glaucoma diagnosis for continuous retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness measurements from spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (spectral-domain OCT). Observational cohort study. A total of 262 eyes of 187 patients with glaucoma and 190 eyes of 100 control subjects were included in the study. Subjects were recruited from the Diagnostic Innovations Glaucoma Study. Eyes with preperimetric and perimetric glaucomatous damage were included in the glaucoma group. The control group was composed of healthy eyes with normal visual fields from subjects recruited from the general population. All eyes underwent RNFL imaging with Spectralis spectral-domain OCT. Likelihood ratios for glaucoma diagnosis were estimated for specific global RNFL thickness measurements using a methodology based on estimating the tangents to the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Likelihood ratios could be determined for continuous values of average RNFL thickness. Average RNFL thickness values lower than 86 μm were associated with positive likelihood ratios (ie, likelihood ratios greater than 1), whereas RNFL thickness values higher than 86 μm were associated with negative likelihood ratios (ie, likelihood ratios smaller than 1). A modified Fagan nomogram was provided to assist calculation of posttest probability of disease from the calculated likelihood ratios and pretest probability of disease. The methodology allowed calculation of likelihood ratios for specific RNFL thickness values. By avoiding arbitrary categorization of test results, it potentially allows for an improved integration of test results into diagnostic clinical decision making. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Evaluation of scale invariance in physiological signals by means of balanced estimation of diffusion entropy.

PubMed

Zhang, Wenqing; Qiu, Lu; Xiao, Qin; Yang, Huijie; Zhang, Qingjun; Wang, Jianyong

2012-11-01

By means of the concept of the balanced estimation of diffusion entropy, we evaluate the reliable scale invariance embedded in different sleep stages and stride records. Segments corresponding to waking, light sleep, rapid eye movement (REM) sleep, and deep sleep stages are extracted from long-term electroencephalogram signals. For each stage the scaling exponent value is distributed over a considerably wide range, which tell us that the scaling behavior is subject and sleep cycle dependent. The average of the scaling exponent values for waking segments is almost the same as that for REM segments (∼0.8). The waking and REM stages have a significantly higher value of the average scaling exponent than that for light sleep stages (∼0.7). For the stride series, the original diffusion entropy (DE) and the balanced estimation of diffusion entropy (BEDE) give almost the same results for detrended series. The evolutions of local scaling invariance show that the physiological states change abruptly, although in the experiments great efforts have been made to keep conditions unchanged. The global behavior of a single physiological signal may lose rich information on physiological states. Methodologically, the BEDE can evaluate with considerable precision the scale invariance in very short time series (∼10^{2}), while the original DE method sometimes may underestimate scale-invariance exponents or even fail in detecting scale-invariant behavior. The BEDE method is sensitive to trends in time series. The existence of trends may lead to an unreasonably high value of the scaling exponent and consequent mistaken conclusions.

Evaluation of scale invariance in physiological signals by means of balanced estimation of diffusion entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wenqing; Qiu, Lu; Xiao, Qin; Yang, Huijie; Zhang, Qingjun; Wang, Jianyong

2012-11-01

By means of the concept of the balanced estimation of diffusion entropy, we evaluate the reliable scale invariance embedded in different sleep stages and stride records. Segments corresponding to waking, light sleep, rapid eye movement (REM) sleep, and deep sleep stages are extracted from long-term electroencephalogram signals. For each stage the scaling exponent value is distributed over a considerably wide range, which tell us that the scaling behavior is subject and sleep cycle dependent. The average of the scaling exponent values for waking segments is almost the same as that for REM segments (˜0.8). The waking and REM stages have a significantly higher value of the average scaling exponent than that for light sleep stages (˜0.7). For the stride series, the original diffusion entropy (DE) and the balanced estimation of diffusion entropy (BEDE) give almost the same results for detrended series. The evolutions of local scaling invariance show that the physiological states change abruptly, although in the experiments great efforts have been made to keep conditions unchanged. The global behavior of a single physiological signal may lose rich information on physiological states. Methodologically, the BEDE can evaluate with considerable precision the scale invariance in very short time series (˜102), while the original DE method sometimes may underestimate scale-invariance exponents or even fail in detecting scale-invariant behavior. The BEDE method is sensitive to trends in time series. The existence of trends may lead to an unreasonably high value of the scaling exponent and consequent mistaken conclusions.

Will surface winds weaken in response to global warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jian; Foltz, Gregory R.; Soden, Brian J.; Huang, Gang; He, Jie; Dong, Changming

2016-12-01

The surface Walker and tropical tropospheric circulations have been inferred to slow down from historical observations and model projections, yet analysis of large-scale surface wind predictions is lacking. Satellite measurements of surface wind speed indicate strengthening trends averaged over the global and tropical oceans that are supported by precipitation and evaporation changes. Here we use corrected anemometer-based observations to show that the surface wind speed has not decreased in the averaged tropical oceans, despite its reduction in the region of the Walker circulation. Historical simulations and future projections for climate change also suggest a near-zero wind speed trend averaged in space, regardless of the Walker cell change. In the tropics, the sea surface temperature pattern effect acts against the large-scale circulation slow-down. For higher latitudes, the surface winds shift poleward along with the eddy-driven mid-latitude westerlies, resulting in a very small contribution to the global change in surface wind speed. Despite its importance for surface wind speed change, the influence of the SST pattern change on global-mean rainfall is insignificant since it cannot substantially alter the global energy balance. As a result, the precipitation response to global warming remains ‘muted’ relative to atmospheric moisture increase. Our results therefore show consistency between projections and observations of surface winds and precipitation.

Global health benefits of mitigating ozone pollution with methane emission controls.

PubMed

West, J Jason; Fiore, Arlene M; Horowitz, Larry W; Mauzerall, Denise L

2006-03-14

Methane (CH(4)) contributes to the growing global background concentration of tropospheric ozone (O(3)), an air pollutant associated with premature mortality. Methane and ozone are also important greenhouse gases. Reducing methane emissions therefore decreases surface ozone everywhere while slowing climate warming, but although methane mitigation has been considered to address climate change, it has not for air quality. Here we show that global decreases in surface ozone concentrations, due to methane mitigation, result in substantial and widespread decreases in premature human mortality. Reducing global anthropogenic methane emissions by 20% beginning in 2010 would decrease the average daily maximum 8-h surface ozone by approximately 1 part per billion by volume globally. By using epidemiologic ozone-mortality relationships, this ozone reduction is estimated to prevent approximately 30,000 premature all-cause mortalities globally in 2030, and approximately 370,000 between 2010 and 2030. If only cardiovascular and respiratory mortalities are considered, approximately 17,000 global mortalities can be avoided in 2030. The marginal cost-effectiveness of this 20% methane reduction is estimated to be approximately 420,000 US dollars per avoided mortality. If avoided mortalities are valued at 1 US dollars million each, the benefit is approximately 240 US dollars per tone of CH(4) ( approximately 12 US dollars per tone of CO(2) equivalent), which exceeds the marginal cost of the methane reduction. These estimated air pollution ancillary benefits of climate-motivated methane emission reductions are comparable with those estimated previously for CO(2). Methane mitigation offers a unique opportunity to improve air quality globally and can be a cost-effective component of international ozone management, bringing multiple benefits for air quality, public health, agriculture, climate, and energy.

Radionuclide concentrations in soil and lifetime cancer risk due to gamma radioactivity in Kirklareli, Turkey.

PubMed

Taskin, H; Karavus, M; Ay, P; Topuzoglu, A; Hidiroglu, S; Karahan, G

2009-01-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate and map soil radionuclides' activity concentrations and environmental outdoor gamma dose rates (terrestrial and cosmic) in Kirklareli, Turkey. The excess lifetime cancer risks are also calculated. Outdoor gamma dose rates were determined in 230 sampling stations and soil samples were taken from 177 locations. The coordinates of the readings were determined by the Global Positioning System (GPS). The outdoor gamma dose rates were determined by Eberline smart portable device (ESP-2) and measurements were taken in air for two minutes at 1m from the ground. The average outdoor gamma dose rate was 118+/-34nGyh(-1). Annual effective gamma dose of Kirklareli was 144microSv and the excess lifetime cancer risk of 5.0x10(-4). Soil samples were analyzed by gamma spectroscopy. The average 226Ra, 238U, 232Th, 137Cs, and 40K activities were 37+/-18Bqkg(-1), 28+/-13Bqkg(-1), 40+/-18Bqkg(-1), 8+/-5Bqkg(-1) and 667+/-281Bqkg(-1), respectively. The average soil radionuclides' concentrations of Kirklareli were within the worldwide range although some extreme values had been determined. Annual effective gamma doses and the excess lifetime risks of cancer were higher than the world's average.

Quantifying blue and green virtual water contents in global crop production as well as potential production losses without irrigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siebert, Stefan; Döll, Petra

2010-04-01

SummaryCrop production requires large amounts of green and blue water. We developed the new global crop water model GCWM to compute consumptive water use (evapotranspiration) and virtual water content (evapotranspiration per harvested biomass) of crops at a spatial resolution of 5' by 5', distinguishing 26 crop classes, and blue versus green water. GCWM is based on the global land use data set MIRCA2000 that provides monthly growing areas for 26 crop classes under rainfed and irrigated conditions for the period 1998-2002 and represents multi-cropping. By computing daily soil water balances, GCWM determines evapotranspiration of blue and green water for each crop and grid cell. Cell-specific crop production under both rainfed and irrigated conditions is computed by downscaling average crop yields reported for 402 national and sub-national statistical units, relating rainfed and irrigated crop yields reported in census statistics to simulated ratios of actual to potential crop evapotranspiration for rainfed crops. By restricting water use of irrigated crops to green water only, the potential production loss without any irrigation was computed. For the period 1998-2002, the global value of total crop water use was 6685 km 3 yr -1, of which blue water use was 1180 km 3 yr -1, green water use of irrigated crops was 919 km 3 yr -1 and green water use of rainfed crops was 4586 km 3 yr -1. Total crop water use was largest for rice (941 km 3 yr -1), wheat (858 km 3 yr -1) and maize (722 km 3 yr -1). The largest amounts of blue water were used for rice (307 km 3 yr -1) and wheat (208 km 3 yr -1). Blue water use as percentage of total crop water use was highest for date palms (85%), cotton (39%), citrus fruits (33%), rice (33%) and sugar beets (32%), while for cassava, oil palm and cocoa, almost no blue water was used. Average crop yield of irrigated cereals was 442 Mg km -2 while average yield of rainfed cereals was only 266 Mg km -2. Average virtual water content of cereal crops was 1109 m 3 Mg -1 of green water and 291 m 3 Mg -1 of blue water, while average crop water productivity of cereal crops was 714 g m -3. If currently irrigated crops were not irrigated, global production of dates, rice, cotton, citrus and sugar cane would decrease by 60%, 39%, 38%, 32% and 31%, respectively. Forty-three per cent of cereal production was on irrigated land, and without irrigation, cereal production on irrigated land would decrease by 47%, corresponding to a 20% loss of total cereal production. The largest cereal production losses would occur in Northern Africa (66%) and Southern Asia (45%) while losses would be very low for Northern Europe (0.001%), Western Europe (1.2%), Eastern Europe (1.5%) and Middle Africa (1.6%). Uncertainties and limitations are discussed in the manuscript, and a comparison of GCWM results to statistics or results of other studies shows good agreement at the regional scale, but larger differences for specific countries.

High order cell-centered scheme totally based on cell average

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Ze-Yu; Cai, Qing-Dong

2018-05-01

This work clarifies the concept of cell average by pointing out the differences between cell average and cell centroid value, which are averaged cell-centered value and pointwise cell-centered value, respectively. Interpolation based on cell averages is constructed and high order QUICK-like numerical scheme is designed for such interpolation. A new approach of error analysis is introduced in this work, which is similar to Taylor’s expansion.

A comparative study of the adsorption equilibrium of progesterone by a carbon black and a commercial activated carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valenzuela-Calahorro, Cristóbal; Navarrete-Guijosa, Antonio; Stitou, Mostafa; Cuerda-Correa, Eduardo M.

2007-04-01

In this paper the adsorption process of a natural steroid hormone (progesterone) by a carbon black and a commercial activated carbon has been studied. The corresponding equilibrium isotherms have been analyzed according to a previously proposed model which establishes a kinetic law satisfactorily fitting the C versus t isotherms. The analysis of the experimental data points out the existence of two well-defined sections in the equilibrium isotherms. A general equation including these two processes has been proposed, the global adsorption process being fitted to such equation. From the values of the kinetic equilibrium constant so obtained, values of standard average adsorption enthalpy ( ΔH°) and entropy ( ΔS°) have been calculated. Finally, information related to variations of differential adsorption enthalpy ( ΔH) and entropy ( ΔS) with the surface coverage fraction ( θ) was obtained by using the corresponding Clausius-Clapeyron equations.

Io's Heat Flow: A Model Including "Warm" Polar Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veeder, G. J.; Matson, D. L.; Johnson, T. V.; Davies, A. G.; Blaney, D. L.

2002-12-01

Some 90 percent of Io's surface is thermally "passive" material. It is separate from the sites of active volcanic eruptions. Though "passive", its thermal behavior continues to be a challenge for modelers. The usual approach is to take albedo, average daytime temperature, temperature as a function of time of day, etc., and attempt to match these constraints with a uniform surface with a single value of thermal inertia. Io is a case where even globally averaged observations are inconsistent with a single-thermal-inertia model approach. The Veeder et al. (1994) model for "passive" thermal emission addressed seven constraints derived from a decade of ground-based, global observations - average albedo plus infrared fluxes at three separate wavelengths (4.8, 8.7, and 20 microns) for both daytime and eclipsed conditions. This model has only two components - a unit of infinite thermal inertia and a unit of zero thermal inertia. The free parameters are the areal coverage ratio of the two units and their relative albedos (constrained to match the known average albedo). This two-parameter model agreed with the global radiometric data and also predicted significantly higher non-volcanic nighttime temperatures than traditional ("lunar-like") single thermal inertia models. Recent observations from the Galileo infrared radiometer show relatively uniform minimum-night-time temperatures. In particular, they show little variation with either latitude or time of night (Spencer et al., 2000; Rathbun et al., 2002). Additionally, detailed analyses of Io's scattering properties and reflectance variations have led to the interesting conclusion that Io's albedo at regional scales varies little with latitude (Simonelli, et al., 2001). This effectively adds four new observational constraints - lack of albedo variation with latitude, average minimum nighttime temperature and lack of variation of temperature with either latitude or longitude. We have made the fewest modifications necessary for the Veeder et al. model to match these new constrains - we added two model parameters to characterize the volcanically heated high-latitude units. These are the latitude above which the unit exists and its nighttime temperature. The resulting four-parameter model is the first that encompasses all of the available observations of Io's thermal emission and that quantitatively satisfies all eleven observational constraints. While no model is unique, this model is significant because it is the first to accommodate widespread polar regions that are relatively "warm". This work was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract to NASA.

Assessing global carbon burial during Oceanic Anoxic Event 2, Cenomanian-Turonian boundary event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owens, J. D.; Lyons, T. W.; Lowery, C. M.

2017-12-01

Reconstructing the areal extent and total amount of organic carbon burial during ancient events remains elusive even for the best documented oceanic anoxic event (OAE) in Earth history, the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary event ( 93.9 Ma), or OAE 2. Reports from 150 OAE 2 localities provide a wide global distribution. However, despite the large number of sections, the majority are found within the proto-Atlantic and Tethyan oceans and interior seaways. Considering these gaps in spatial coverage, the pervasive increase in organic carbon (OC) burial during OAE2 that drove carbon isotope values more positive (average of 4‰) can provide additional insight. These isotope data allow us to estimate the total global burial of OC, even for unstudied portions of the global ocean. Thus, we can solve for any `missing' OC sinks by comparing our estimates from a forward carbon-isotope box model with the known, mapped distribution of OC for OAE 2 sediments. Using the known OC distribution and reasonably extrapolating to the surrounding regions of analogous depositional conditions accounts for only 13% of the total seafloor, mostly in marginal marine settings. This small geographic area accounts for more OC burial than the entire modern ocean, but significantly less than the amount necessary to produce the observed isotope record. Using modern and OAE 2 average OC rates we extrapolate further to appropriate depositional settings in the unknown portions of seafloor, mostly deep abyssal plains. This addition significantly increases the predicted amount buried but still does not account for total burial. Additional sources, including hydrocarbon migration, lacustrine, and coal also cannot account for the missing OC. This difference points to unknown portions of the open ocean with high TOC contents or exceptionally high TOC in productive marginal marine regions, which are underestimated in our extrapolations. This difference might be explained by highly productive margins within the Pacific.

Effects on surface meteorological parameters and radiation levels of a heavy dust storm occurred in Central Arabian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maghrabi, A. H.; Al-Dosari, A. F.

2016-12-01

On 24 April 2015 a severe dust storm event arrived at Riyadh causing various problems. The quantitative impact of this dusty event on solar ultraviolet radiation UVA and UVB, global solar radiation component, downward and outgoing long-wave radiation, and some meteorological variables, was investigated and presented. The results showed significant changes in all of these parameters due to this event. Shortly after the storm arrived, UVA, UVB, global radiation, and air temperature rapidly decrease by 83%, 86%, 57.5%, and 9.4%, respectively. Atmospheric pressure increased by 4 mbar, relative humidly increased from 8% to 16%, and wind direction became northerly with wind speed increasing to a maximum of 6.3 m/s. Outgoing long-wave radiation decreased by 19 W/m2 and downward long-wave radiation increased by 41 W/m2. The dust storm caused the atmosphere to emit radiation that resembled that of a black body. The daily average of the atmospheric pressure showed no changes compared to a non-dusty day. Apart from the relative humidity (which increased by about 32%), the remainder of the variables have shown significant reduction, with different magnitudes, in their daily values due to the dust event compared to the values of a non-disturbed reference day. For instance, the daily mean values of the UVA radiation, air temperature, and outgoing long-wave radiation, decreased in the dusty day by 15.6%, 30.8% and 11.4%, respectively, as compared to the clear day.

New measurements of D/H on Mars using EXES aboard SOFIA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Encrenaz, T.; DeWitt, C.; Richter, M. J.; Greathouse, T. K.; Fouchet, T.; Montmessin, F.; Lefèvre, F.; Bézard, B.; Atreya, S. K.; Aoki, S.; Sagawa, H.

2018-05-01

The global D/H ratio on Mars is an important measurement for understanding the past history of water on Mars; locally, through condensation and sublimation processes, it is a possible tracer of the sources and sinks of water vapor on Mars. Measuring D/H as a function of longitude, latitude and season is necessary for determining the present averaged value of D/H on Mars. Following an earlier measurement in April 2014, we used the Echelon Cross Echelle Spectrograph (EXES) instrument on board the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA) facility to map D/H on Mars on two occasions, on March 24, 2016 (Ls = 127°), and January 24, 2017 (Ls = 304°), by measuring simultaneously the abundances of H2O and HDO in the 1383-1391 cm-1 range (7.2 μm). The D/H disk-integrated values are 4.0 (+0.8, -0.6) × Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water (VSMOW) and 4.5 (+0.7, -0.6) × VSMOW, respectively, in agreement with our earlier result. The main result of this study is that there is no evidence of strong local variations in the D/H ratio nor for seasonal variations in the global D/H ratio between northern summer and southern summer.

The ozone depletion potentials on halocarbons: Their dependence of calculation assumptions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karol, Igor L.; Kiselev, Andrey A.

1994-01-01

The concept of Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP) is widely used in the evaluation of numerous halocarbons and of their replacement effects on ozone, but the methods, assumptions and conditions used in ODP calculations have not been analyzed adequately. In this paper a model study of effects on ozone of the instantaneous releases of various amounts of CH3CCl3 and of CHF2Cl (HCFC-22) for several compositions of the background atmosphere are presented, aimed at understanding connections of ODP values with the assumptions used in their calculations. To facilitate the ODP computation in numerous versions for the long time periods after their releases, the above rather short-lived gases and the one-dimensional radiative photochemical model of the global annually averaged atmospheric layer up to 50 km height are used. The variation of released gas global mass from 1 Mt to 1 Gt leads to ODP value increase with its stabilization close to the upper bound of this range in the contemporary atmosphere. The same variations are analyzed for conditions of the CFC-free atmosphere of 1960's and for the anthropogenically loaded atmosphere in the 21st century according to the known IPCC 'business as usual' scenario. Recommendations for proper ways of ODP calculations are proposed for practically important cases.

Photovoltaic system derived data for determining the solar resource and for modeling the performance of other photovoltaic systems

DOE PAGES

Marion, Bill; Smith, Benjamin

2017-03-27

Using performance data from some of the millions of installed photovoltaic (PV) modules with micro-inverters may afford the opportunity to provide ground-based solar resource data critical for developing PV projects. Here, a method was developed to back-solve for the direct normal irradiance (DNI) and the diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) from the measured ac power of south-facing PV module/micro-inverter systems. The method was validated using one year of irradiance and PV performance measurements for five PV systems, each with a different tilt/azimuth orientation, and located in Golden, Colorado. Compared to using a measured global horizontal irradiance for PV performance model input,more » using the back-solved values of DNI and DHI only increased the range of mean bias deviations from measured values by 0.6% for the modeled annual averages of the global tilt irradiance and ac power for the five PV systems. Correcting for angle-of-incidence effects is an important feature of the method to prevent underestimating the solar resource and for modeling the performance of PV systems with more dissimilar PV module orientations. The results for the method were also shown more favorable than the results when using an existing power projection method for estimating the ac power.« less

Photovoltaic system derived data for determining the solar resource and for modeling the performance of other photovoltaic systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marion, Bill; Smith, Benjamin

Using performance data from some of the millions of installed photovoltaic (PV) modules with micro-inverters may afford the opportunity to provide ground-based solar resource data critical for developing PV projects. Here, a method was developed to back-solve for the direct normal irradiance (DNI) and the diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) from the measured ac power of south-facing PV module/micro-inverter systems. The method was validated using one year of irradiance and PV performance measurements for five PV systems, each with a different tilt/azimuth orientation, and located in Golden, Colorado. Compared to using a measured global horizontal irradiance for PV performance model input,more » using the back-solved values of DNI and DHI only increased the range of mean bias deviations from measured values by 0.6% for the modeled annual averages of the global tilt irradiance and ac power for the five PV systems. Correcting for angle-of-incidence effects is an important feature of the method to prevent underestimating the solar resource and for modeling the performance of PV systems with more dissimilar PV module orientations. The results for the method were also shown more favorable than the results when using an existing power projection method for estimating the ac power.« less

Intercomparisons of Total Precipitable Water from Satellite and Other Long Term Data Sets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, Fong-Chiau; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Suggs, Ronnie J.; Guillory, Anthony R.

1998-01-01

Global water vapor data sets from satellite (NVAP) and reanalysis (NCEP and DAO) are intercompared for a 5 year period (1988-1992). Global average indicates that the NCEP and DAO reanalyses are dryer than NVAP over much of the period. Spatial patterns of the NCEP/NVAP and DAO/NVAP differences show regional variations in the 60 month climatogical fields. For example, in the Eastern Pacific just south of the equator NVAP is much dryer than the NCEP and more moist than DAO. Rather large discrepancies exist in other regions as well. North Africa, Saudi Arabia, India, and Australia show that NVAP TPW values are more moist than the NCEP and DAO model analyses by 4-8 mm. In general, the NCEP and DAO exhibits a tendency to be dryer than NVAP over the tropical ocean region. Over the Americas little differences exist except over the west coast. The shapes of the differences fields over the Eastern Pacific region are significantly different between NCEP/NVAP and DAO/NVAP differences. Over South America and Central Africa, DAO TPW values are significantly higher than those of NVAP. These difference fields show monthly and seasonal variability as well. These results will be highlighted in the paper and on the poster.

Activities of NASA's Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) in the Assessment of Subsonic Aircraft Impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriquez, J. M.; Logan, J. A.; Rotman, D. A.; Bergmann, D. J.; Baughcum, S. L.; Friedl, R. R.; Anderson, D. E.

2004-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated a peak increase in ozone ranging from 7-12 ppbv (zonal and annual average, and relative to a baseline with no aircraft), due to the subsonic aircraft in the year 2015, corresponding to aircraft emissions of 1.3 TgN/year. This range of values presumably reflects differences in model input (e.g., chemical mechanism, ground emission fluxes, and meteorological fields), and algorithms. The model implemented by the Global Modeling Initiative allows testing the impact of individual model components on the assessment calculations. We present results of the impact of doubling the 1995 aircraft emissions of NOx, corresponding to an extra 0.56 TgN/year, utilizing meteorological data from NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), and the Middle Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 3 (MACCM3). Comparison of results to observations can be used to assess the model performance. Peak ozone perturbations ranging from 1.7 to 2.2 ppbv of ozone are calculated using the different fields. These correspond to increases in total tropospheric ozone ranging from 3.3 to 4.1 Tg/Os. These perturbations are consistent with the IPCC results, due to the difference in aircraft emissions. However, the range of values calculated is much smaller than in IPCC.

Measurements of an Anomalous Global Methane Increase During 1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dlugokencky, E. J.; Walter, B. P.; Masarie, K. A.; Lang, P. M.; Kasischke, E. S.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Measurements of atmospheric methane from a globally distributed network of air sampling sites indicate that the globally averaged CH4 growth rate increased from an average of 3.9 ppb/yr during 1995-1997 to 12.7 +/- 0.6 ppb in 1998. The global growth rate then decreased to 2.6 +/- 0.6 ppb during 1999, indicating that the large increase in 1998 was an anomaly and not a return to the larger growth rates observed during the late 1970s and early 1980s. The increased growth rate represents an anomalous increase in the imbalance between CH4 sources and sinks equal to approximately 24 Tg CH4 during 1998. Wetlands and boreal biomass burning are sources that may have contributed to the anomaly. During 1998, the globally averaged temperature anomaly was +0.67 C, the largest temperature anomaly in the modern record. A regression model based on temperature and precipitation anomalies was used to calculate emission anomalies of 11.6 Tg CH4 from wetlands north of 30 N and 13 Tg CH4 for tropical wetlands during 1998 compared to average emissions calculated for 1982-1993. In 1999, calculated wetland emission anomalies were negative for high northern latitudes and the tropics, contributing to the low growth rate observed in 1999. Also 1998 was a severe fire year in boreal regions where approximately 1.3x10(exp 5) sq km of forest and peat land burned releasing an estimated 5.7 Tg CH4

Occupational exposure to electric fields and induced currents associated with 400 kV substation tasks from different service platforms.

PubMed

Korpinen, Leena H; Elovaara, Jarmo A; Kuisti, Harri A

2011-01-01

The aim of the study was to investigate the occupational exposure to electric fields, average current densities, and average total contact currents at 400 kV substation tasks from different service platforms (main transformer inspection, maintenance of operating device of disconnector, maintenance of operating device of circuit breaker). The average values are calculated over measured periods (about 2.5 min). In many work tasks, the maximum electric field strengths exceeded the action values proposed in the EU Directive 2004/40/EC, but the average electric fields (0.2-24.5 kV/m) were at least 40% lower than the maximum values. The average current densities were 0.1-2.3 mA/m² and the average total contact currents 2.0-143.2 µA, that is, clearly less than the limit values of the EU Directive. The average values of the currents in head and contact currents were 16-68% lower than the maximum values when we compared the average value from all cases in the same substation. In the future it is important to pay attention to the fact that the action and limit values of the EU Directive differ significantly. It is also important to take into account that generally, the workers' exposure to the electric fields, current densities, and total contact currents are obviously lower if we use the average values from a certain measured time period (e.g., 2.5 min) than in the case where exposure is defined with only the help of the maximum values. © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

[Outbreak of Whooping cough in 2016.Écija, Seville, Spain].

PubMed

Porras-Povedano, Miguel; Roldán-Garrido, Ana; Santacruz-Hamer, Virginia

2017-01-18

Whooping cough is a global public health problem, is a highly contagious disease, and despite universal vaccination increased incidence is observed. The aim of this study was to describe the investigation of a population outbreak. A descriptive study of a population outbreak of whooping cough between February and June 2016 in Ecija (Seville). Case and outbreak definitions was taken of Whooping Cough Monitoring Protocol. Information was collected from Health History, Epidemiological Monitoring System and Laboratory. For statistical analysis used the free software R, for measuring quantitative variables were presented, median, standard deviation, minimum and maximum values and percentiles for qualitative variables frequency distribution. 91 suspected cases were identified, ruling 33. Of the remaining 58, 42 cases were confirmed and 16 probable cases. The cases have presented an average age of 10,24 years. 62,1% of cases occurred in women. The incidence during the duration of the outbreak was 148,51 cases/100.000 people globally, and 851,06 cases/100.000 people in under 14 years. All children under 18 years were successfully vaccinated in primary vaccination and only 2 children lacked the fifth dose. The average time between onset of symptoms and diagnosis was 24,86 days. The establishment of monitoring and control measures have managed to limit and resolve the outbreak. It is recommended to enhance the information and coordination between the various levels of care (Primary care/Specialist) and professionals (Clinical/Epidemiology).

An effective parameter optimization with radiation balance constraints in the CAM5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, L.; Zhang, T.; Qin, Y.; Lin, Y.; Xue, W.; Zhang, M.

2017-12-01

Uncertain parameters in physical parameterizations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) greatly impact model performance. Traditional parameter tuning methods are mostly unconstrained optimization, leading to the simulation results with optimal parameters may not meet the conditions that models have to keep. In this study, the radiation balance constraint is taken as an example, which is involved in the automatic parameter optimization procedure. The Lagrangian multiplier method is used to solve this optimization problem with constrains. In our experiment, we use CAM5 atmosphere model under 5-yr AMIP simulation with prescribed seasonal climatology of SST and sea ice. We consider the synthesized metrics using global means of radiation, precipitation, relative humidity, and temperature as the goal of optimization, and simultaneously consider the conditions that FLUT and FSNTOA should satisfy as constraints. The global average of the output variables FLUT and FSNTOA are set to be approximately equal to 240 Wm-2 in CAM5. Experiment results show that the synthesized metrics is 13.6% better than the control run. At the same time, both FLUT and FSNTOA are close to the constrained conditions. The FLUT condition is well satisfied, which is obviously better than the average annual FLUT obtained with the default parameters. The FSNTOA has a slight deviation from the observed value, but the relative error is less than 7.7‰.

Occupational exposure assessment of magnetic fields generated by induction heating equipment-the role of spatial averaging.

PubMed

Kos, Bor; Valič, Blaž; Kotnik, Tadej; Gajšek, Peter

2012-10-07

Induction heating equipment is a source of strong and nonhomogeneous magnetic fields, which can exceed occupational reference levels. We investigated a case of an induction tempering tunnel furnace. Measurements of the emitted magnetic flux density (B) were performed during its operation and used to validate a numerical model of the furnace. This model was used to compute the values of B and the induced in situ electric field (E) for 15 different body positions relative to the source. For each body position, the computed B values were used to determine their maximum and average values, using six spatial averaging schemes (9-285 averaging points) and two averaging algorithms (arithmetic mean and quadratic mean). Maximum and average B values were compared to the ICNIRP reference level, and E values to the ICNIRP basic restriction. Our results show that in nonhomogeneous fields, the maximum B is an overly conservative predictor of overexposure, as it yields many false positives. The average B yielded fewer false positives, but as the number of averaging points increased, false negatives emerged. The most reliable averaging schemes were obtained for averaging over the torso with quadratic averaging, with no false negatives even for the maximum number of averaging points investigated.

A global comparison of the cost of patented cancer drugs in relation to global differences in wealth.

PubMed

Goldstein, Daniel A; Clark, Jonathon; Tu, Yifan; Zhang, Jie; Fang, Fenqi; Goldstein, Robert; Stemmer, Salomon M; Rosenbaum, Eli

2017-09-22

There are major differences in cancer drug prices around the world. However, the patterns of affordability of these drugs are poorly understood. The objective of this study was to compare patterns of affordability of cancer drugs in Australia, China, India, Israel, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Cancer drug prices are highest in the United States. Cancer drugs are the least affordable in India by a large margin. Despite lower prices than in the USA, cancer drugs are less affordable in middle-income countries than in high-income countries. We obtained the prices of a basket of cancer drugs in all 7 countries, and converted the prices to US$ using both foreign exchange rates and purchasing power parity. We assessed international differences in wealth by collecting values for gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in addition to average salaries. We compared patterns of affordability of cancer drugs by dividing the drug prices by the markers of wealth. Cancer drugs are less affordable in middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Differential pricing may be an acceptable policy to ensure global affordability and access to highly active anti-cancer therapies.

Additions to Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (MARS-GRAM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; James, Bonnie

1992-01-01

Three major additions or modifications were made to the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM): (1) in addition to the interactive version, a new batch version is available, which uses NAMELIST input, and is completely modular, so that the main driver program can easily be replaced by any calling program, such as a trajectory simulation program; (2) both the interactive and batch versions now have an option for treating local-scale dust storm effects, rather than just the global-scale dust storms in the original Mars-GRAM; and (3) the Zurek wave perturbation model was added, to simulate the effects of tidal perturbations, in addition to the random (mountain wave) perturbation model of the original Mars-GRAM. A minor modification was also made which allows heights to go 'below' local terrain height and return 'realistic' pressure, density, and temperature, and not the surface values, as returned by the original Mars-GRAM. This feature will allow simulations of Mars rover paths which might go into local 'valley' areas which lie below the average height of the present, rather coarse-resolution, terrain height data used by Mars-GRAM. Sample input and output of both the interactive and batch versions of Mars-GRAM are presented.

Additions to Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.

1991-01-01

Three major additions or modifications were made to the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM): (1) in addition to the interactive version, a new batch version is available, which uses NAMELIST input, and is completely modular, so that the main driver program can easily be replaced by any calling program, such as a trajectory simulation program; (2) both the interactive and batch versions now have an option for treating local-scale dust storm effects, rather than just the global-scale dust storms in the original Mars-GRAM; and (3) the Zurek wave perturbation model was added, to simulate the effects of tidal perturbations, in addition to the random (mountain wave) perturbation model of the original Mars-GRAM. A minor modification has also been made which allows heights to go below local terrain height and return realistic pressure, density, and temperature (not the surface values) as returned by the original Mars-GRAM. This feature will allow simulations of Mars rover paths which might go into local valley areas which lie below the average height of the present, rather coarse-resolution, terrain height data used by Mars-GRAM. Sample input and output of both the interactive and batch version of Mars-GRAM are presented.

An algorithm to estimate aircraft cruise black carbon emissions for use in developing a cruise emissions inventory.

PubMed

Peck, Jay; Oluwole, Oluwayemisi O; Wong, Hsi-Wu; Miake-Lye, Richard C

2013-03-01

To provide accurate input parameters to the large-scale global climate simulation models, an algorithm was developed to estimate the black carbon (BC) mass emission index for engines in the commercial fleet at cruise. Using a high-dimensional model representation (HDMR) global sensitivity analysis, relevant engine specification/operation parameters were ranked, and the most important parameters were selected. Simple algebraic formulas were then constructed based on those important parameters. The algorithm takes the cruise power (alternatively, fuel flow rate), altitude, and Mach number as inputs, and calculates BC emission index for a given engine/airframe combination using the engine property parameters, such as the smoke number, available in the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) engine certification databank. The algorithm can be interfaced with state-of-the-art aircraft emissions inventory development tools, and will greatly improve the global climate simulations that currently use a single fleet average value for all airplanes. An algorithm to estimate the cruise condition black carbon emission index for commercial aircraft engines was developed. Using the ICAO certification data, the algorithm can evaluate the black carbon emission at given cruise altitude and speed.

Solar Activity and the Sea-surface Temperature Record-evidence of a Long-period Variation in Solar Total Irradiance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reid, George C.

1990-01-01

There have been many suggestions over the years of a connection between solar activity and the Earth's climate on time scales long compared to the 11-year sunspot cycle. They have remained little more than suggestions largely because of the major uncertainties in the climate record itself, and the difficulty in trying to compile a global average from an assembly of measurements that are uneven in both quality and distribution. Different climate time response to solar activity, some suggesting a positive correlation, some a negative correlation, and some no correlation at all. The only excuse for making yet another such suggestion is that much effort has been devoted in recent years to compiling climate records for the past century or more that are internally consistent and believable, and that a decadal-scale record of solar total irradiance is emerging from spacecraft measurements, and can be used to set limits on the variation that is likely to have occurred on these time scales. The work described here was originally inspired by the observation that the time series of globally averaged sea-surface temperatures over the past 120 years or so, as compiled by the British Meteorological Office group (Folland and Kates, 1984), bore a resonable similarity to the long-term average sunspot number, which is an indicator of the secular variability of solar activity. The two time series are shown where the sunspot number is shown as the 135-month running mean, and the SST variation is shown as the departure from an arbitrary average value. The simplest explanation of the similarity, if one accepts it as other than coincidental, is that the sun's luminosity may have been varying more or less in step with the level of solar activity, or in other words that there is a close coupling between the sun's magnetic condition and its radiative output on time scales longer than the 11-year cycle. Such an idea is not new, and in fact the time series shown can be regarded as a modern extension of the proposal put forward by Eddy (1977) to explain the covariance between various global climate indicators and solar activity as revealed by the C-14 record over the past millenium.

New Environmentalconditions Responsible for the amount of mg Incorporated in Biogenic Carbonates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuddas, P.; Cherchi, A.; DeGiudici, G. B.; Buosi, C.

2012-12-01

The composition of carbonate minerals formed in past and present oceans is assumed to be significantly controlled by temperature and seawater composition. Several kinetic laboratory investigations have suggested that the temperature is kinetically responsible for the amount of Mg incorporated in both abiotic and biogenic calcites and that variation of kinetic reaction mechanism resulting from the temperature changes are correlated with the variable amount of Mg incorporated in calcites. These results explain why in present-day marine carbonates low-Mg calcite cements are mainly associated with cool water while high-Mg carbonates are dominantly found in warm-water environments. An apparent inverse relationship between the global average paleo-temperature and the Mg/Ca ratio is however observed in the past formed marine carbonate. This apparent contradiction has been interpreted as resulting from a possible changing in the relative seawater geochemical cycles of these cations. Recent monitoring of costal areas in presence of heavy metals and CO2 released from industrial polluted area reveals the presence of porcelanaceous miliolids infested by microscopic boring microflora (cyanobacteria, algae and fungi). Here, benthonic foraminifera have Mg/Ca molar ratio by one order of magnitude higher when compared to the average value of the same genus living under uncontaminated environments. A similar behaviour has been found for Zn, Cd and Pb. In these contaminated environments, temperature and average major seawater composition remain constant, while PCO2 partial pressure (estimated by pH and alkalinity using the ion pairing model) is 3-5 times higher than the average for the open sea nearby. Geochemical models predicts that CO2 increase is affecting carbonate saturation state of surface water in the twenty-first century indicating that calcareous organisms may have difficulty calcifying leading to production of weaker skeletons and greater vulnerability to erosion. The properties of biogenic carbonate reservoirs are affected not only by the CO2 increase but also by metal dispersion process contributing to global CO2 change via a complex ecological process.

Estimating Long Term Surface Soil Moisture in the GCIP Area From Satellite Microwave Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Owe, Manfred; deJeu, Vrije; VandeGriend, Adriaan A.

2000-01-01

Soil moisture is an important component of the water and energy balances of the Earth's surface. Furthermore, it has been identified as a parameter of significant potential for improving the accuracy of large-scale land surface-atmosphere interaction models. However, accurate estimates of surface soil moisture are often difficult to make, especially at large spatial scales. Soil moisture is a highly variable land surface parameter, and while point measurements are usually accurate, they are representative only of the immediate site which was sampled. Simple averaging of point values to obtain spatial means often leads to substantial errors. Since remotely sensed observations are already a spatially averaged or areally integrated value, they are ideally suited for measuring land surface parameters, and as such, are a logical input to regional or larger scale land process models. A nine-year database of surface soil moisture is being developed for the Central United States from satellite microwave observations. This region forms much of the GCIP study area, and contains most of the Mississippi, Rio Grande, and Red River drainages. Daytime and nighttime microwave brightness temperatures were observed at a frequency of 6.6 GHz, by the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR), onboard the Nimbus 7 satellite. The life of the SMMR instrument spanned from Nov. 1978 to Aug. 1987. At 6.6 GHz, the instrument provided a spatial resolution of approximately 150 km, and an orbital frequency over any pixel-sized area of about 2 daytime and 2 nighttime passes per week. Ground measurements of surface soil moisture from various locations throughout the study area are used to calibrate the microwave observations. Because ground measurements are usually only single point values, and since the time of satellite coverage does not always coincide with the ground measurements, the soil moisture data were used to calibrate a regional water balance for the top 1, 5, and 10 cm surface layers in order to interpolate daily surface moisture values. Such a climate-based approach is often more appropriate for estimating large-area spatially averaged soil moisture because meteorological data are generally more spatially representative than isolated point measurements of soil moisture. Vegetation radiative transfer characteristics, such as the canopy transmissivity, were estimated from vegetation indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the 37 GHz Microwave Polarization Difference Index (MPDI). Passive microwave remote sensing presents the greatest potential for providing regular spatially representative estimates of surface soil moisture at global scales. Real time estimates should improve weather and climate modelling efforts, while the development of historical data sets will provide necessary information for simulation and validation of long-term climate and global change studies.

Global-scale modeling of groundwater recharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Döll, P.; Fiedler, K.

2007-11-01

Long-term average groundwater recharge, which is equivalent to renewable groundwater resources, is the major limiting factor for the sustainable use of groundwater. Compared to surface water resources, groundwater resources are more protected from pollution, and their use is less restricted by seasonal and inter-annual flow variations. To support water management in a globalized world, it is necessary to estimate groundwater recharge at the global scale. Here, we present a best estimate of global-scale long-term average diffuse groundwater recharge (i.e. renewable groundwater resources) that has been calculated by the most recent version of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model WGHM (spatial resolution of 0.5° by 0.5°, daily time steps). The estimate was obtained using two state-of-the art global data sets of gridded observed precipitation that we corrected for measurement errors, which also allowed to quantify the uncertainty due to these equally uncertain data sets. The standard WGHM groundwater recharge algorithm was modified for semi-arid and arid regions, based on independent estimates of diffuse groundwater recharge, which lead to an unbiased estimation of groundwater recharge in these regions. WGHM was tuned against observed long-term average river discharge at 1235 gauging stations by adjusting, individually for each basin, the partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration and total runoff. We estimate that global groundwater recharge was 12 666 km3/yr for the climate normal 1961-1990, i.e. 32% of total renewable water resources. In semi-arid and arid regions, mountainous regions, permafrost regions and in the Asian Monsoon region, groundwater recharge accounts for a lower fraction of total runoff, which makes these regions particularly vulnerable to seasonal and inter-annual precipitation variability and water pollution. Average per-capita renewable groundwater resources of countries vary between 8 m3/(capita yr) for Egypt to more than 1 million m3/(capita yr) for the Falkland Islands, the global average in the year 2000 being 2091 m3/(capita yr). Regarding the uncertainty of estimated groundwater resources due to the two precipitation data sets, deviation from the mean is less than 1% for 50 out of the 165 countries considered, between 1 and 5% for 62, between 5 and 20% for 43 and between 20 and 80% for 10 countries. Deviations at the grid scale can be much larger, ranging between 0 and 186 mm/yr.

Appraisal of application possibilities of smoothed splines to designation of the average values of terrain curvatures measured after the termination of hard coal exploitation conducted at medium depth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orwat, J.

2018-01-01

In paper were presented results of average values calculations of terrain curvatures measured after the termination of subsequent exploitation stages in the 338/2 coal bed located at medium depth. The curvatures were measured on the neighbouring segments of measuring line No. 1 established perpendicularly to the runways of four longwalls No. 001, 002, 005 and 007. The average courses of measured curvatures were designated based on average courses of measured inclinations. In turn, the average values of observed inclinations were calculated on the basis of measured subsidence average values. In turn, they were designated on the way of average-square approximation, which was done by the use of smoothed splines, in reference to the theoretical courses determined by the S. Knothe’s and J. Bialek’s formulas. Here were used standard parameters values of a roof rocks subsidence a, an exploitation rim Aobr and an angle of the main influences range β. The values of standard deviations between the average and measured curvatures σC and the variability coefficients of random scattering of curvatures MC were calculated. They were compared with values appearing in the literature and based on this, a possibility appraisal of the use of smooth splines to designation of average course of observed curvatures of mining area was conducted.

Atmospheric histories and global emissions of the anthropogenic hydrofluorocarbons HFC-365mfc, HFC-245fa, HFC-227ea, and HFC-236fa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vollmer, Martin K.; Miller, Benjamin R.; Rigby, Matthew; Reimann, Stefan; Mühle, Jens; Krummel, Paul B.; O'Doherty, Simon; Kim, Jooil; Rhee, Tae Siek; Weiss, Ray F.; Fraser, Paul J.; Simmonds, Peter G.; Salameh, Peter K.; Harth, Christina M.; Wang, Ray H. J.; Steele, L. Paul; Young, Dickon; Lunder, Chris R.; Hermansen, Ove; Ivy, Diane; Arnold, Tim; Schmidbauer, Norbert; Kim, Kyung-Ryul; Greally, Brian R.; Hill, Matthias; Leist, Michael; Wenger, Angelina; Prinn, Ronald G.

2011-04-01

We report on ground-based atmospheric measurements and emission estimates of the four anthropogenic hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) HFC-365mfc (CH3CF2CH2CF3, 1,1,1,3,3-pentafluorobutane), HFC-245fa (CHF2CH2CF3, 1,1,1,3,3-pentafluoropropane), HFC-227ea (CF3CHFCF3, 1,1,1,2,3,3,3-heptafluoropropane), and HFC-236fa (CF3CH2CF3, 1,1,1,3,3,3-hexafluoropropane). In situ measurements are from the global monitoring sites of the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE), the System for Observations of Halogenated Greenhouse Gases in Europe (SOGE), and Gosan (South Korea). We include the first halocarbon flask sample measurements from the Antarctic research stations King Sejong and Troll. We also present measurements of archived air samples from both hemispheres back to the 1970s. We use a two-dimensional atmospheric transport model to simulate global atmospheric abundances and to estimate global emissions. HFC-365mfc and HFC-245fa first appeared in the atmosphere only ˜1 decade ago; they have grown rapidly to globally averaged dry air mole fractions of 0.53 ppt (in parts per trillion, 10-12) and 1.1 ppt, respectively, by the end of 2010. In contrast, HFC-227ea first appeared in the global atmosphere in the 1980s and has since grown to ˜0.58 ppt. We report the first measurements of HFC-236fa in the atmosphere. This long-lived compound was present in the atmosphere at only 0.074 ppt in 2010. All four substances exhibit yearly growth rates of >8% yr-1 at the end of 2010. We find rapidly increasing emissions for the foam-blowing compounds HFC-365mfc and HFC-245fa starting in ˜2002. After peaking in 2006 (HFC-365mfc: 3.2 kt yr-1, HFC-245fa: 6.5 kt yr-1), emissions began to decline. Our results for these two compounds suggest that recent estimates from long-term projections (to the late 21st century) have strongly overestimated emissions for the early years of the projections (˜2005-2010). Global HFC-227ea and HFC-236fa emissions have grown to average values of 2.4 kt yr-1 and 0.18 kt yr-1 over the 2008-2010 period, respectively.

EMC Global Climate And Weather Modeling Branch Personnel

Science.gov Websites

Comparison Statistics which includes: NCEP Raw and Bias-Corrected Ensemble Domain Averaged Bias NCEP Raw and Bias-Corrected Ensemble Domain Averaged Bias Reduction (Percents) CMC Raw and Bias-Corrected Control Forecast Domain Averaged Bias CMC Raw and Bias-Corrected Control Forecast Domain Averaged Bias Reduction

Rainfall Modification by Major Urban Areas: Observations from Spaceborne Rain Radar on the TRMM Satellite.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Pierce, Harold; Negri, Andrew J.

2002-07-01

Data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite's precipitation radar (PR) were employed to identify warm-season rainfall (1998-2000) patterns around Atlanta, Georgia; Montgomery, Alabama; Nashville, Tennessee; and San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas, Texas. Results reveal an average increase of about 28% in monthly rainfall rates within 30-60 km downwind of the metropolis, with a modest increase of 5.6% over the metropolis. Portions of the downwind area exhibit increases as high as 51%. The percentage changes are relative to an upwind control area. It was also found that maximum rainfall rates in the downwind impact area exceeded the mean value in the upwind control area by 48%-116%. The maximum value was generally found at an average distance of 39 km from the edge of the urban center or 64 km from the center of the city. Results are consistent with the Metropolitan Meteorological Experiment (METROMEX) studies of St. Louis, Missouri, almost two decades ago and with more recent studies near Atlanta. The study establishes the possibility of utilizing satellite-based rainfall estimates for examining rainfall modification by urban areas on global scales and over longer time periods. Such research has implications for weather forecasting, urban planning, water resource management, and understanding human impact on the environment and climate.

Unravelling the drastic range retraction of an emblematic songbird of North Africa: potential threats to Afro-Palearctic migratory birds.

PubMed

Khelifa, Rassim; Zebsa, Rabah; Amari, Hichem; Mellal, Mohammed Khalil; Bensouilah, Soufyane; Laouar, Abdeldjalil; Mahdjoub, Hayat

2017-04-24

Understanding how culture may influence biodiversity is fundamental to ensure effective conservation, especially when the practice is local but the implications are global. Despite that, little effort has been devoted to documenting cases of culturally-related biodiversity loss. Here, we investigate the cultural domestication of the European goldfinch (Carduelis carduelis) in western Maghreb (Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia) and the effects of long-term poaching of wild populations (1990-2016) on range distribution, socio-economic value, international trading and potential collateral damage on Afro-Palearctic migratory birds. On average, we found that the European goldfinch lost 56.7% of its distribution range in the region which led to the increase of its economic value and establishment of international trading network in western Maghreb. One goldfinch is currently worth nearly a third of the average monthly income in the region. There has been a major change in poaching method around 2010, where poachers started to use mist nets to capture the species. Nearly a third of the 16 bird species captured as by-catch of the European goldfinch poaching are migratory, of which one became regularly sold as cage-bird. These results suggest that Afro-Palearctic migratory birds could be under serious by-catch threat.

Emissions of Glyoxal and Other Carbonyl Compounds from Agricultural Biomass Burning Plumes Sampled by Aircraft.

PubMed

Zarzana, Kyle J; Min, Kyung-Eun; Washenfelder, Rebecca A; Kaiser, Jennifer; Krawiec-Thayer, Mitchell; Peischl, Jeff; Neuman, J Andrew; Nowak, John B; Wagner, Nicholas L; Dubè, William P; St Clair, Jason M; Wolfe, Glenn M; Hanisco, Thomas F; Keutsch, Frank N; Ryerson, Thomas B; Brown, Steven S

2017-10-17

We report enhancements of glyoxal and methylglyoxal relative to carbon monoxide and formaldehyde in agricultural biomass burning plumes intercepted by the NOAA WP-3D aircraft during the 2013 Southeast Nexus and 2015 Shale Oil and Natural Gas Nexus campaigns. Glyoxal and methylglyoxal were measured using broadband cavity enhanced spectroscopy, which for glyoxal provides a highly selective and sensitive measurement. While enhancement ratios of other species such as methane and formaldehyde were consistent with previous measurements, glyoxal enhancements relative to carbon monoxide averaged 0.0016 ± 0.0009, a factor of 4 lower than values used in global models. Glyoxal enhancements relative to formaldehyde were 30 times lower than previously reported, averaging 0.038 ± 0.02. Several glyoxal loss processes such as photolysis, reactions with hydroxyl radicals, and aerosol uptake were found to be insufficient to explain the lower measured values of glyoxal relative to other biomass burning trace gases, indicating that glyoxal emissions from agricultural biomass burning may be significantly overestimated. Methylglyoxal enhancements were three to six times higher than reported in other recent studies, but spectral interferences from other substituted dicarbyonyls introduce an estimated correction factor of 2 and at least a 25% uncertainty, such that accurate measurements of the enhancements are difficult.

Novel endoscopic delivery modality of infrared coagulation therapy for internal hemorrhoids.

PubMed

McLemore, Elisabeth C; Rai, Rudra; Siddiqui, Junaid; Basu, P Patrick; Tabbaa, Mousab; Epstein, Michael S

2012-11-01

A novel endoscopic delivery system for infrared coagulation therapy (IRC) has been designed recently. IRC is a well-established treatment for symptomatic internal hemorrhoids. Patients frequently undergo lower endoscopy before hemorrhoid treatment to eliminate other sources of bleeding. Current treatment options are difficult to perform without an anal retractor, adequate lighting, and specialized instruments. Endoscopic IRC is an attractive alternative to standard IRC, because it can be performed during the lower endoscopy. Endoscopic IRC utilizes infrared radiation generated by a control box, which is applied to the tissue through a flexible, fiber optic light guide (Precision Endoscopic Infrared Coagulator™). The light guide is placed through the colonoscope or flexible sigmoidoscope in the same chamber as other endoscopic instruments. A retrospective review was performed using a prospectively collected database. A standardized protocol was utilized in all patients. Patients graded their symptoms before and after therapy by using the visual analog symptom severity scoring system (range, 0-10). These results were analyzed by using the nonparametric Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Exact P values were computed by using the R function wilcox.exact. A total of 55 patients underwent endoscopic IRC for predominately grade II and grade III symptomatic internal hemorrhoids (71 %). There were 22 (40 %) female patients. Posttherapy results indicated a significant improvement in global symptoms (pretreatment average global score = 2.24 vs. posttreatment average global score = 0.28; P < 0.0001). There have been no adverse events reported to date. Endoscopic IRC provides improved visibility and efficiency, allowing simultaneous treatment of symptomatic internal hemorrhoids at the time of lower endoscopy. Patients experienced significant improvement in their symptoms after a single session of endoscopic IRC. There are a variety of additional endoscopic IRC therapeutic utilities: endoscopic management of angiodysplasia, inflammation, hemostasis, and NOTES applications.

Introduction to this special issue on ocean acidification: the pathway from science to policy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mathis, Jeremy T.; Cooley, Sarah R.; Yates, Kimberly K.; Williamson, Phillip

2015-01-01

Ocean acidification (OA) is a progressive decrease in the pH of seawater over decades, caused primarily by uptake of excess atmospheric CO2 and accompanied by changes in seawater carbonate chemistry. Scientific studies designed to examine the effects of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions on global carbon fluxes have also led to the detection of OA. During the last decade, this phenomenon has surged to the attention of not only scientists but also policymakers and the public. OA chemistry is well understood and follows first principles of acid-base chemistry (e.g., Gattuso and Hansson, 2011; Box 1 in McLaughlin et al.). Today, total anthropogenic release of CO2 exceeds nine petagrams of carbon annually, with ~85% coming directly from industrial sources and ~15% from changes in land use. The three major sinks for this CO2 are: ~46% of CO2 emitted remains in the atmosphere, ~29% is absorbed by the terrestrial biosphere, and the ocean absorbs the remaining ~26% (Le Quéré et al., 2014), resulting in OA. Since the Industrial Revolution, global average surface ocean pH has dropped 0.1 unit (about a 30% increase in acidity; IPCC, 2013), and it is expected to drop another 0.3 to 0.4 units by 2100 (100-150% increase in acidity) if CO2 emissions continue in a business-as-usual scenario (Orr et al., 2005; IPCC, 2013). Some areas of the ocean, such as coastal regions, upwelling zones, and polar seas, may be subjected to much greater chemical perturbations from OA than indicated by such globally averaged values (e.g., Feely et al., 2008; Mathis et al.).

Simulating phenological shifts in French temperate forests under two climatic change scenarios and four driving global circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebourgeois, François; Pierrat, Jean-Claude; Perez, Vincent; Piedallu, Christian; Cecchini, Sébastien; Ulrich, Erwin

2010-09-01

After modeling the large-scale climate response patterns of leaf unfolding, leaf coloring and growing season length of evergreen and deciduous French temperate trees, we predicted the effects of eight future climate scenarios on phenological events. We used the ground observations from 103 temperate forests (10 species and 3,708 trees) from the French Renecofor Network and for the period 1997-2006. We applied RandomForest algorithms to predict phenological events from climatic and ecological variables. With the resulting models, we drew maps of phenological events throughout France under present climate and under two climatic change scenarios (A2, B2) and four global circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM2, CSIRO2 and PCM). We compared current observations and predicted values for the periods 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. On average, spring development of oaks precedes that of beech, which precedes that of conifers. Annual cycles in budburst and leaf coloring are highly correlated with January, March-April and October-November weather conditions through temperature, global solar radiation or potential evapotranspiration depending on species. At the end of the twenty-first century, each model predicts earlier budburst (mean: 7 days) and later leaf coloring (mean: 13 days) leading to an average increase in the growing season of about 20 days (for oaks and beech stands). The A2-HadCM3 hypothesis leads to an increase of up to 30 days in many areas. As a consequence of higher predicted warming during autumn than during winter or spring, shifts in leaf coloring dates appear greater than trends in leaf unfolding. At a regional scale, highly differing climatic response patterns were observed.

Meridional overturning and large-scale circulation of the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganachaud, Alexandre; Wunsch, Carl; Marotzke, Jochem; Toole, John

2000-11-01

The large scale Indian Ocean circulation is estimated from a global hydrographic inverse geostrophic box model with a focus on the meridional overturning circulation (MOC). The global model is based on selected recent World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) sections which in the Indian Basin consist of zonal sections at 32°S, 20°S and 8°S, and a section between Bali and Australia from the Java-Australia Dynamic Experiment (JADE). The circulation is required to conserve mass, salinity, heat, silica and "PO" (170PO4+O2). Near-conservation is imposed within layers bounded by neutral surfaces, while permitting advective and diffusive exchanges between the layers. Conceptually, the derived circulation is an estimate of the average circulation for the period 1987-1995. A deep inflow into the Indian Basin of 11±4 Sv is found, which is in the lower range of previous estimates, but consistent with conservation requirements and the global data set. The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) is estimated at 15±5 Sv. The flow in the Mozambique Channel is of the same magnitude, implying a weak net flow between Madagascar and Australia. A net evaporation of -0.6±0.4 Sv is found between 32°S and 8°S, consistent with independent estimates. No net heat gain is found over the Indian Basin (0.1 ± 0.2PW north of 32°S) as a consequence of the large warm water influx from the ITF. Through the use of anomaly equations, the average dianeutral upwelling and diffusion between the sections are required and resolved, with values in the range 1-3×10-5 cm s-1 for the upwelling and 2-10 cm2 s-1 for the diffusivity.

Simulating phenological shifts in French temperate forests under two climatic change scenarios and four driving global circulation models.

PubMed

Lebourgeois, François; Pierrat, Jean-Claude; Perez, Vincent; Piedallu, Christian; Cecchini, Sébastien; Ulrich, Erwin

2010-09-01

After modeling the large-scale climate response patterns of leaf unfolding, leaf coloring and growing season length of evergreen and deciduous French temperate trees, we predicted the effects of eight future climate scenarios on phenological events. We used the ground observations from 103 temperate forests (10 species and 3,708 trees) from the French Renecofor Network and for the period 1997-2006. We applied RandomForest algorithms to predict phenological events from climatic and ecological variables. With the resulting models, we drew maps of phenological events throughout France under present climate and under two climatic change scenarios (A2, B2) and four global circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM2, CSIRO2 and PCM). We compared current observations and predicted values for the periods 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. On average, spring development of oaks precedes that of beech, which precedes that of conifers. Annual cycles in budburst and leaf coloring are highly correlated with January, March-April and October-November weather conditions through temperature, global solar radiation or potential evapotranspiration depending on species. At the end of the twenty-first century, each model predicts earlier budburst (mean: 7 days) and later leaf coloring (mean: 13 days) leading to an average increase in the growing season of about 20 days (for oaks and beech stands). The A2-HadCM3 hypothesis leads to an increase of up to 30 days in many areas. As a consequence of higher predicted warming during autumn than during winter or spring, shifts in leaf coloring dates appear greater than trends in leaf unfolding. At a regional scale, highly differing climatic response patterns were observed.

δ44/40Ca variability in shallow water carbonates and the impact of submarine groundwater discharge on Ca-cycling in marine environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmden, C.; Papanastassiou, D. A.; Blanchon, P.; Evans, S.

2012-04-01

Shallow water carbonates from Florida Bay, the Florida Reef Tract, and a Mexican Caribbean fringing reef at Punta Maroma were studied to determine the range of Ca-isotope variation among a cohort of modern carbonate producers and to look for local-scale Ca-cycling effects. The total range of Ca-isotope fractionation is 0.4‰ at Punta Maroma, yielding an allochem-weighted average δ44/40Ca value of -1.12‰ consistent with bulk sediment from the lagoon with a value of -1.09‰. These values are virtually identical to bulk carbonate sediments from the Florida Reef Tract (-1.11‰) and from one location in Florida Bay (-1.09‰) near a tidal inlet in the Florida Keys. No evidence was found for the ∼0.6‰ fractionation between calcite and aragonite which has been observed in laboratory precipitation experiments. Combining these results with carbonate production modes and δ44/40Ca values for pelagic carbonates taken from the literature, we calculate a weighted average value of -1.12 ± 0.11‰ (2σ) for the global-scale Ca-output flux into carbonate sediments. The δ44/40Ca value of the input Ca-flux from rivers and hydrothermal fluids is -1.01 ± 0.04‰ (2σmean), calculated from literature data that have been corrected for inter-laboratory bias. Assuming that the ocean Ca cycle is in steady state, we calculate a δ44/40Ca value of -1.23 ± 0.23‰ (2σ) for submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) on a global scale. The SGD Ca-flux rivals river flows and mid-ocean ridge hydrothermal vent inputs as a source of Ca to the oceans. It has the potential to differ significantly in its isotopic value from these traditional Ca-inputs in the geological past, and to cause small changes in the δ44/40Ca value of oceans through time. In the innermost water circulation restricted region of northeastern Florida Bay, sediments and waters exhibit a 0.7‰ gradient in δ44/40Ca values decreasing towards the Florida Everglades. This lowering of δ44/40Ca is predominantly caused by local-scale Ca-inputs from SGD, which has a high Ca concentration (450 mg/L) and low δ44/40Ca value (-0.96‰). Mixing calculations show that Ca inputs from SGD and surface water runoff from the Florida Everglades contribute between 8% and 60% of the dissolved Ca to the studied waters with salinities between 30 and 14, respectively. Similar degrees of circulation restriction between epeiric seas and oceans in the geological past may have also led to overprinting of sedimentary carbonate δ44/40Ca values in nearshore regions of epeiric seas due to local-scale cycling of seawater through coastal carbonate aquifers. Local Ca-cycling effects may explain some of the scatter in δ44/40Ca values present in the Ca-isotope evolution curve of Phanerozoic oceans.

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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-06-19

... Change Relating to the Accuvest Global Long Short ETF (Formerly the Mars Hill Global Relative Value ETF...) applicable to, the Accuvest Global Long Short ETF (``Fund'') (formerly known as the Mars Hill Global Relative... the Exchange of shares (``Shares'') of the Mars Hill Global Relative Value ETF, a series of Advisor...

Cosmological backreaction within the Szekeres model and emergence of spatial curvature

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolejko, Krzysztof, E-mail: krzysztof.bolejko@sydney.edu.au

This paper discusses the phenomenon of backreaction within the Szekeres model. Cosmological backreaction describes how the mean global evolution of the Universe deviates from the Friedmannian evolution. The analysis is based on models of a single cosmological environment and the global ensemble of the Szekeres models (of the Swiss-Cheese-type and Styrofoam-type). The obtained results show that non-linear growth of cosmic structures is associated with the growth of the spatial curvature Ω{sub R} (in the FLRW limit Ω{sub R} → Ω {sub k} ). If averaged over global scales the result depends on the assumed global model of the Universe. Withinmore » the Swiss-Cheese model, which does have a fixed background, the volume average follows the evolution of the background, and the global spatial curvature averages out to zero (the background model is the ΛCDM model, which is spatially flat). In the Styrofoam-type model, which does not have a fixed background, the mean evolution deviates from the spatially flat ΛCDM model, and the mean spatial curvature evolves from Ω{sub R} =0 at the CMB to Ω{sub R} ∼ 0.1 at 0 z =. If the Styrofoam-type model correctly captures evolutionary features of the real Universe then one should expect that in our Universe, the spatial curvature should build up (local growth of cosmic structures) and its mean global average should deviate from zero (backreaction). As a result, this paper predicts that the low-redshift Universe should not be spatially flat (i.e. Ω {sub k} ≠ 0, even if in the early Universe Ω {sub k} = 0) and therefore when analysing low- z cosmological data one should keep Ω {sub k} as a free parameter and independent from the CMB constraints.« less

Cosmological backreaction within the Szekeres model and emergence of spatial curvature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolejko, Krzysztof

2017-06-01

This paper discusses the phenomenon of backreaction within the Szekeres model. Cosmological backreaction describes how the mean global evolution of the Universe deviates from the Friedmannian evolution. The analysis is based on models of a single cosmological environment and the global ensemble of the Szekeres models (of the Swiss-Cheese-type and Styrofoam-type). The obtained results show that non-linear growth of cosmic structures is associated with the growth of the spatial curvature ΩScript R (in the FLRW limit ΩScript R → Ωk). If averaged over global scales the result depends on the assumed global model of the Universe. Within the Swiss-Cheese model, which does have a fixed background, the volume average follows the evolution of the background, and the global spatial curvature averages out to zero (the background model is the ΛCDM model, which is spatially flat). In the Styrofoam-type model, which does not have a fixed background, the mean evolution deviates from the spatially flat ΛCDM model, and the mean spatial curvature evolves from ΩScript R =0 at the CMB to ΩScript R ~ 0.1 at 0z =. If the Styrofoam-type model correctly captures evolutionary features of the real Universe then one should expect that in our Universe, the spatial curvature should build up (local growth of cosmic structures) and its mean global average should deviate from zero (backreaction). As a result, this paper predicts that the low-redshift Universe should not be spatially flat (i.e. Ωk ≠ 0, even if in the early Universe Ωk = 0) and therefore when analysing low-z cosmological data one should keep Ωk as a free parameter and independent from the CMB constraints.

Contributions of Lower Atmospheric Drivers to the Semiannual Oscillation in Thermospheric Global Mass Density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, M., Jr.; Emmert, J. T.; Drob, D. P.; Siskind, D. E.

2016-12-01

The thermosphere exhibits intra-annual variations (IAV) in globally averaged mass density that noticeably impact the drag environment of satellites in low Earth orbit. Particularly, the annual and semiannual oscillations (AO and SAO) are collectively the second largest component, after solar variability, of thermospheric global mass density variations. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain the oscillations, but they have yet to be reproduced by first-principles modeling simulations. Recent studies have focused on estimating the SAO in eddy diffusion required to explain the thermospheric SAO in mass density. Less attention has been paid to the effect of lower and middle atmospheric drivers on the lower boundary of the thermosphere. In this study, we utilize the National Center for Atmospheric Research Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM), to elucidate how the different lower atmospheric drivers influence IAV, and in particular the SAO of globally-averaged thermospheric mass density. We performed numerical simulations of a continuous calendar year assuming constant solar forcing, manipulating the lower atmospheric tidal forcing and gravity wave parameterization in order to quantify the SAO in thermospheric mass density attributable to different lower atmospheric drivers. The prominent initial results are as follows: (1) The "standard" TIME-GCM is capable of simulating the SAO in globally-averaged mass density at 400 km from first-principles, and its amplitude and phase compare well with empirical models; (2) The simulations suggest that seasonally varying Kzz driven by breaking GWs is not the primary driver of the SAO in upper thermospheric globally averaged mass density; (3) Preliminary analysis suggests that the SAO in the upper thermospheric mass density could be a by-product of dynamical wave transport in the mesopause region.

Theoretical analysis of three methods for calculating thermal insulation of clothing from thermal manikin.

PubMed

Huang, Jianhua

2012-07-01

There are three methods for calculating thermal insulation of clothing measured with a thermal manikin, i.e. the global method, the serial method, and the parallel method. Under the condition of homogeneous clothing insulation, these three methods yield the same insulation values. If the local heat flux is uniform over the manikin body, the global and serial methods provide the same insulation value. In most cases, the serial method gives a higher insulation value than the global method. There is a possibility that the insulation value from the serial method is lower than the value from the global method. The serial method always gives higher insulation value than the parallel method. The insulation value from the parallel method is higher or lower than the value from the global method, depending on the relationship between the heat loss distribution and the surface temperatures. Under the circumstance of uniform surface temperature distribution over the manikin body, the global and parallel methods give the same insulation value. If the constant surface temperature mode is used in the manikin test, the parallel method can be used to calculate the thermal insulation of clothing. If the constant heat flux mode is used in the manikin test, the serial method can be used to calculate the thermal insulation of clothing. The global method should be used for calculating thermal insulation of clothing for all manikin control modes, especially for thermal comfort regulation mode. The global method should be chosen by clothing manufacturers for labelling their products. The serial and parallel methods provide more information with respect to the different parts of clothing.

Developing and testing a global-scale regression model to quantify mean annual streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbarossa, Valerio; Huijbregts, Mark A. J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Clavreul, Julie; King, Henry; Schipper, Aafke M.

2017-01-01

Quantifying mean annual flow of rivers (MAF) at ungauged sites is essential for assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. MAF can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict MAF based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. In this study, we developed a global-scale regression model for MAF based on a dataset unprecedented in size, using observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from 1885 catchments worldwide, measuring between 2 and 106 km2. In addition, we compared the performance of the regression model with the predictive ability of the spatially explicit global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB by comparing results from both models to independent measurements. We obtained a regression model explaining 89% of the variance in MAF based on catchment area and catchment averaged mean annual precipitation and air temperature, slope and elevation. The regression model performed better than PCR-GLOBWB for the prediction of MAF, as root-mean-square error (RMSE) values were lower (0.29-0.38 compared to 0.49-0.57) and the modified index of agreement (d) was higher (0.80-0.83 compared to 0.72-0.75). Our regression model can be applied globally to estimate MAF at any point of the river network, thus providing a feasible alternative to spatially explicit process-based global hydrological models.

Modelling the Evolution of Sea Spray Droplets on a Global Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staniec, A.; Vlahos, P.; Monahan, E. C.

2017-12-01

Sea spray droplets are an important mechanism for the transport of moisture, heat, and organic material between the ocean and the atmosphere. Spume droplets are the largest of the size spectrum and as such have the potential to transport significant amounts of energy and gases despite their generally short residence time in the atmosphere. A model is developed based on the physical parameterizations from Andreas et al. (1995, 2005)and a range of spume generation functions, coupled with a biogeochemical exchange model for gases developed here to examine the equilibrium temperature and gas exchange of spume droplets under representative open ocean conditions. The modelling approach uses micro-physics to simulate the expected changes to the droplet as it equilibrates with the atmospheric temperature and relative humidity. The effect of temperature differentials and relative humidity variations is explored. A global approach is simulated by using average summer and winter values for SST, salinity, and air temperature throughout the various ocean basins.

Detection of smoothly distributed spatial outliers, with applications to identifying the distribution of parenchymal hyperinflation following an airway challenge in asthmatics.

PubMed

Thurman, Andrew L; Choi, Jiwoong; Choi, Sanghun; Lin, Ching-Long; Hoffman, Eric A; Lee, Chang Hyun; Chan, Kung-Sik

2017-05-10

Methacholine challenge tests are used to measure changes in pulmonary function that indicate symptoms of asthma. In addition to pulmonary function tests, which measure global changes in pulmonary function, computed tomography images taken at full inspiration before and after administration of methacholine provide local air volume changes (hyper-inflation post methacholine) at individual acinar units, indicating local airway hyperresponsiveness. Some of the acini may have extreme air volume changes relative to the global average, indicating hyperresponsiveness, and those extreme values may occur in clusters. We propose a Gaussian mixture model with a spatial smoothness penalty to improve prediction of hyperresponsive locations that occur in spatial clusters. A simulation study provides evidence that the spatial smoothness penalty improves prediction under different data-generating mechanisms. We apply this method to computed tomography data from Seoul National University Hospital on five healthy and ten asthmatic subjects. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A New Paradigm for Diagnosing Contributions to Model Aerosol Forcing Error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. L.; Feldman, D. R.; Freidenreich, S.; Paynter, D.; Ramaswamy, V.; Collins, W. D.; Pincus, R.

2017-12-01

A new paradigm in benchmark absorption-scattering radiative transfer is presented that enables both the globally averaged and spatially resolved testing of climate model radiation parameterizations in order to uncover persistent sources of biases in the aerosol instantaneous radiative effect (IRE). A proof of concept is demonstrated with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory AM4 and Community Earth System Model 1.2.2 climate models. Instead of prescribing atmospheric conditions and aerosols, as in prior intercomparisons, native snapshots of the atmospheric state and aerosol optical properties from the participating models are used as inputs to an accurate radiation solver to uncover model-relevant biases. These diagnostic results show that the models' aerosol IRE bias is of the same magnitude as the persistent range cited ( 1 W/m2) and also varies spatially and with intrinsic aerosol optical properties. The findings underscore the significance of native model error analysis and its dispositive ability to diagnose global biases, confirming its fundamental value for the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project.

Black carbon radiative forcing over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Cenlin; Li, Qinbin; Liou, Kuo-Nan; Takano, Yoshi; Gu, Yu; Qi, Ling; Mao, Yuhao; Leung, L. Ruby

2014-11-01

We estimate the snow albedo forcing and direct radiative forcing (DRF) of black carbon (BC) in the Tibetan Plateau using a global chemical transport model in conjunction with a stochastic snow model and a radiative transfer model. The annual mean BC snow albedo forcing is 2.9 W m-2 averaged over snow-covered plateau regions, which is a factor of 3 larger than the value over global land snowpack. BC-snow internal mixing increases the albedo forcing by 40-60% compared with external mixing, and coated BC increases the forcing by 30-50% compared with uncoated BC aggregates, whereas Koch snowflakes reduce the forcing by 20-40% relative to spherical snow grains. The annual BC DRF at the top of the atmosphere is 2.3 W m-2 with uncertainties of -70-85% in the plateau after scaling the modeled BC absorption optical depth to Aerosol Robotic Network observations. The BC forcings are attributed to emissions from different regions.

Northern hemisphere total ozone values from 1989-1993 determined with the NOAA-11 Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV/2) instrument

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Planet, W. G.; Lienesch, J. H.; Miller, A. J.; Nagatani, R.; Mcpeters, R. D.; Hilsenrath, E.; Cebula, R. P.; Deland, M. T.; Wellemeyer, C. G.; Horvath, K.

1994-01-01

Determinations of global total ozone amounts have been made from recently reprocessed measurements with the SBUV/2 on the NOAA-11 environmental satellite since January 1989. This data set employs a new algorithm and an updated calibration. Comparisons with total ozone amounts derived from a significant subset of the global network of Dobson spectrophotometers shows a 0.3% bias between the satellite and ground measurements for the period January 1989-May 1993. Comparisons with the data from individual stations exhibit differing degrees of agreement which could be due to the matchup procedures and also to the uncertainties in the Dobson data. The SBUV/2 data set discussed here traces the Northern Hemisphere total ozone from 1989 to the present, showing a marked decrease from the average of those years starting in the summer of 1992 and continuing into 1993, with an apparent returning to more normal levels in late 1993.

Validation of a Clinical Global Impression Scale for Aggression (CGI-A) in a sample of 558 psychiatric patients.

PubMed

Huber, Christian G; Lambert, Martin; Naber, Dieter; Schacht, Alexander; Hundemer, Hans-Peter; Wagner, Thomas T; Schimmelmann, Benno G

2008-03-01

Clinical management of aggression depends on the availability of easily administrable measurements allowing reliable evaluation. The present study's aim is to validate a Clinical Global Impression-Severity of Aggression scale (CGI-A). 558 inpatients with psychiatric disorders and an agitated-aggressive syndrome at baseline were continuously assessed over 5 days using CGI-A and the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale-Excited Component (PANSS-EC). Equipercentile linking, correlation analyses and linear regression were applied. Relationship between CGI-A and PANSS-EC total score was found to be linear. On a 5-level CGI-A scale, values of 1 to 5 points were found to correspond to PANSS-EC scores of 12.2, 16.7, 21.3, 25.8, and 30.4, respectively (average increase: 4.6). All findings remained stable when only data from patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders were analyzed. The CGI-A is proposed as a quickly administrable scale for the assessment of patients' aggressiveness.

Scientific issues in the design of metrics for inclusion of oxides of nitrogen in global climate agreements

PubMed Central

Shine, K. P.; Berntsen, T. K.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Sausen, R.

2005-01-01

The Kyoto Protocol seeks to limit emissions of various greenhouse gases but excludes short-lived species and their precursors even though they cause a significant climate forcing. We explore the difficulties that are faced when designing metrics to compare the climate impact of emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NOx) with other emissions. There are two dimensions to this difficulty. The first concerns the definition of a metric that satisfactorily accounts for its climate impact. NOx emissions increase tropospheric ozone, but this increase and the resulting climate forcing depend strongly on the location of the emissions, with low-latitude emissions having a larger impact. NOx emissions also decrease methane concentrations, causing a global-mean radiative forcing similar in size but opposite in sign to the ozone forcing. The second dimension of difficulty concerns the intermodel differences in the values of computed metrics. We explore the use of indicators that could lead to metrics that, instead of using global-mean inputs, are computed locally and then averaged globally. These local metrics may depend less on cancellation in the global mean; the possibilities presented here seem more robust to model uncertainty, although their applicability depends on the poorly known relationship between local climate change and its societal/ecological impact. If it becomes a political imperative to include NOx emissions in future climate agreements, policy makers will be faced with difficult choices in selecting an appropriate metric. PMID:16243971

Scientific issues in the design of metrics for inclusion of oxides of nitrogen in global climate agreements.

PubMed

Shine, K P; Berntsen, T K; Fuglestvedt, J S; Sausen, R

2005-11-01

The Kyoto Protocol seeks to limit emissions of various greenhouse gases but excludes short-lived species and their precursors even though they cause a significant climate forcing. We explore the difficulties that are faced when designing metrics to compare the climate impact of emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NO(x)) with other emissions. There are two dimensions to this difficulty. The first concerns the definition of a metric that satisfactorily accounts for its climate impact. NO(x) emissions increase tropospheric ozone, but this increase and the resulting climate forcing depend strongly on the location of the emissions, with low-latitude emissions having a larger impact. NO(x) emissions also decrease methane concentrations, causing a global-mean radiative forcing similar in size but opposite in sign to the ozone forcing. The second dimension of difficulty concerns the intermodel differences in the values of computed metrics. We explore the use of indicators that could lead to metrics that, instead of using global-mean inputs, are computed locally and then averaged globally. These local metrics may depend less on cancellation in the global mean; the possibilities presented here seem more robust to model uncertainty, although their applicability depends on the poorly known relationship between local climate change and its societal/ecological impact. If it becomes a political imperative to include NO(x) emissions in future climate agreements, policy makers will be faced with difficult choices in selecting an appropriate metric.

Global impacts of the meat trade on in-stream organic river pollution: the importance of spatially distributed hydrological conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Yingrong; Schoups, Gerrit; van de Giesen, Nick

2018-01-01

In many regions of the world, intensive livestock farming has become a significant source of organic river pollution. As the international meat trade is growing rapidly, the environmental impacts of meat production within one country can occur either domestically or internationally. The goal of this paper is to quantify the impacts of the international meat trade on global organic river pollution at multiple scales (national, regional and gridded). Using the biological oxygen demand (BOD) as an overall indicator of organic river pollution, we compute the spatially distributed organic pollution in global river networks with and without a meat trade, where the without-trade scenario assumes that meat imports are replaced by local production. Our analysis reveals a reduction in the livestock population and production of organic pollutants at the global scale as a result of the international meat trade. However, the actual environmental impact of trade, as quantified by in-stream BOD concentrations, is negative; i.e. we find a slight increase in polluted river segments. More importantly, our results show large spatial variability in local (grid-scale) impacts that do not correlate with local changes in BOD loading, which illustrates: (1) the significance of accounting for the spatial heterogeneity of hydrological processes along river networks, and (2) the limited value of looking at country-level or global averages when estimating the actual impacts of trade on the environment.

Global discrimination of land cover types from metrics derived from AVHRR pathfinder data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeFries, R.; Hansen, M.; Townshend, J.

1995-12-01

Global data sets of land cover are a significant requirement for global biogeochemical and climate models. Remotely sensed satellite data is an increasingly attractive source for deriving these data sets due to the resulting internal consistency, reproducibility, and coverage in locations where ground knowledge is sparse. Seasonal changes in the greenness of vegetation, described in remotely sensed data as changes in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) throughout the year, have been the basis for discriminating between cover types in previous attempts to derive land cover from AVHRR data at global and continental scales. This study examines the use ofmore » metrics derived from the NDVI temporal profile, as well as metrics derived from observations in red, infrared, and thermal bands, to improve discrimination between 12 cover types on a global scale. According to separability measures calculated from Bhattacharya distances, average separabilities improved by using 12 of the 16 metrics tested (1.97) compared to separabilities using 12 monthly NDVI values alone (1.88). Overall, the most robust metrics for discriminating between cover types were: mean NDVI, maximum NDVI, NDVI amplitude, AVHRR Band 2 (near-infrared reflectance) and Band 1 (red reflectance) corresponding to the time of maximum NDVI, and maximum land surface temperature. Deciduous and evergreen vegetation can be distinguished by mean NDVI, maximum NDVI, NDVI amplitude, and maximum land surface temperature. Needleleaf and broadleaf vegetation can be distinguished by either mean NDVI and NDVI amplitude or maximum NDVI and NDVI amplitude.« less

Random SU(2) invariant tensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Youning; Han, Muxin; Ruan, Dong; Zeng, Bei

2018-04-01

SU(2) invariant tensors are states in the (local) SU(2) tensor product representation but invariant under the global group action. They are of importance in the study of loop quantum gravity. A random tensor is an ensemble of tensor states. An average over the ensemble is carried out when computing any physical quantities. The random tensor exhibits a phenomenon known as ‘concentration of measure’, which states that for any bipartition the average value of entanglement entropy of its reduced density matrix is asymptotically the maximal possible as the local dimensions go to infinity. We show that this phenomenon is also true when the average is over the SU(2) invariant subspace instead of the entire space for rank-n tensors in general. It is shown in our earlier work Li et al (2017 New J. Phys. 19 063029) that the subleading correction of the entanglement entropy has a mild logarithmic divergence when n  =  4. In this paper, we show that for n  >  4 the subleading correction is not divergent but a finite number. In some special situation, the number could be even smaller than 1/2, which is the subleading correction of random state over the entire Hilbert space of tensors.

Spine surgery cost reduction at a specialized treatment center

PubMed Central

Viola, Dan Carai Maia; Lenza, Mario; de Almeida, Suze Luize Ferraz; dos Santos, Oscar Fernando Pavão; Cendoroglo, Miguel; Lottenberg, Claudio Luiz; Ferretti, Mario

2013-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective To compare the estimated cost of treatment of spinal disorders to those of this treatment in a specialized center. Methods An evaluation of average treatment costs of 399 patients referred by a Health Insurance Company for evaluation and treatment at the Spine Treatment Reference Center of Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein. All patients presented with an indication for surgical treatment before being referred for assessment. Of the total number of patients referred, only 54 underwent surgical treatment and 112 received a conservative treatment with motor physical therapy and acupuncture. The costs of both treatments were calculated based on a previously agreed table of values for reimbursement for each phase of treatment. Results Patients treated non-surgically had an average treatment cost of US$ 1,650.00, while patients treated surgically had an average cost of US$ 18,520.00. The total estimated cost of the cohort of patients treated was US$ 1,184,810.00, which represents a 158.5% decrease relative to the total cost projected for these same patients if the initial type of treatment indicated were performed. Conclusion Treatment carried out within a center specialized in treating spine pathologies has global costs lower than those regularly observed. PMID:23579752

Climate Change of 4°C GlobalWarming above Pre-industrial Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiaoxin; Jiang, Dabang; Lang, Xianmei

2018-07-01

Using a set of numerical experiments from 39 CMIP5 climate models, we project the emergence time for 4°C global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels and associated climate changes under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario. Results show that, according to the 39 models, the median year in which 4°C global warming will occur is 2084. Based on the median results of models that project a 4°C global warming by 2100, land areas will generally exhibit stronger warming than the oceans annually and seasonally, and the strongest enhancement occurs in the Arctic, with the exception of the summer season. Change signals for temperature go outside its natural internal variabilities globally, and the signal-tonoise ratio averages 9.6 for the annual mean and ranges from 6.3 to 7.2 for the seasonal mean over the globe, with the greatest values appearing at low latitudes because of low noise. Decreased precipitation generally occurs in the subtropics, whilst increased precipitation mainly appears at high latitudes. The precipitation changes in most of the high latitudes are greater than the background variability, and the global mean signal-to-noise ratio is 0.5 and ranges from 0.2 to 0.4 for the annual and seasonal means, respectively. Attention should be paid to limiting global warming to 1.5°C, in which case temperature and precipitation will experience a far more moderate change than the natural internal variability. Large inter-model disagreement appears at high latitudes for temperature changes and at mid and low latitudes for precipitation changes. Overall, the intermodel consistency is better for temperature than for precipitation.

Assessing energy efficiencies, economy, and global warming potential (GWP) effects of major crop production systems in Iran: a case study in East Azerbaijan province.

PubMed

Mohammadzadeh, Arash; Mahdavi Damghani, Abdolmajid; Vafabakhsh, Javad; Deihimfard, Reza

2017-07-01

Efficient use of energy in farming systems is one of the most important implications for decreasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigating global warming (GW). This paper describes the energy use patterns, analyze the economics, and report global warming potential effects of major crop production systems in East Azerbaijan province, Iran. For this purpose, 110 farmers whose main activity was major crop production in the region, including wheat, barley, carrot, tomato, onion, potato, alfalfa, corn silage, canola, and saffron, were surveyed. Some other data was obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture Jihad of Iran. Results showed that, in terms of total energy input, onion (87,556 Mj ha -1 ) and potato (80,869 Mj ha -1 ) production systems were more energy-intensive than other crops. Among the studied crops, the highest values of net return (6563.8 $ ha -1 ) and benefit/cost ratio (1.95) were related to carrot and corn silage production systems, respectively. Studies have also shown that onion and saffron production systems emit the highest (5332.6 kg CO2eq ha -1 ) and lowest (646.24 kg CO 2 eq ha -1 ) CO 2 eq. emission, respectively. When it was averaged across crops, diesel fuel accounted for the greatest GHG contribution with 43% of the total, followed by electric power (28%) and nitrogen fertilizer (21%). In the present study, eco-efficiency was calculated as a ratio of the gross production value and global warming potential effect for the studied crops. Out of all the studied crops, the highest values of eco-efficiency were calculated to be 8.65 $ kg CO 2 eq -1 for the saffron production system followed by the carrot (3.65 $ kg CO 2 eq -1 ) production. Generally, from the aspect of energy balance and use efficiency, the alfalfa production system was the best; however, from an economical point of view, the carrot production system was better than the other crops.

Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robock, Alan

2015-03-30

The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, conducting climate model experiments with standard stratospheric aerosol injection scenarios, has found that insolation reduction could keep the global average temperature constant, but global average precipitation would reduce, particularly in summer monsoon regions around the world. Temperature changes would also not be uniform; the tropics would cool, but high latitudes would warm, with continuing, but reduced sea ice and ice sheet melting. Temperature extremes would still increase, but not as much as without geoengineering. If geoengineering were halted all at once, there would be rapid temperature and precipitation increases at 5–10 times the rates frommore » gradual global warming. The prospect of geoengineering working may reduce the current drive toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and there are concerns about commercial or military control. Because geoengineering cannot safely address climate change, global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt are crucial to address anthropogenic global warming.« less

Long-Term Precipitation Isotope Ratios (δ18O, δ2H, d-excess) in the Northeast US Reflect Atlantic Ocean Warming and Shifts in Moisture Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puntsag, T.; Welker, J. M.; Mitchell, M. J.; Klein, E. S.; Campbell, J. L.; Likens, G.

2014-12-01

The global water cycle is exhibiting dramatic changes as global temperatures increase resulting in increases in: drought extremes, flooding, alterations in storm track patterns with protracted winter storms, and greater precipitation variability. The mechanisms driving these changes can be difficult to assess, but the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation water isotopes (δ18O, δ2H, d-excess) provide a means to help understand these water cycle changes. However, extended temporal records of isotope ratios in precipitation are infrequent, especially in the US. In our study we analyzed precipitation isotope ratio data from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire that has the longest US precipitation isotope record, to determine: 1) the monthly composited averages and trends from 1967 to 2012 (45 years); ; 2) the relationships between abiotic properties such as local temperatures, precipitation type, storm tracks and isotope ratio changes; and 3) the influence of regional shifts in moisture sources and/or changes in N Atlantic Ocean water conditions on isotope values. The seasonal variability of Hubbard Brook precipitation isotope ratios is consistent with other studies, as average δ18O values are ~ -15‰ in January and ~ -5 ‰ in July. However, over the 45 year record there is a depletion trend in the δ 18O values (becoming isotopically lighter with a greater proportion of 16O), which coupled with less change in δ 2H leads to increases in d-excess values from ~ -10‰ around 1970 to greater than 10‰ in 2009. These changes occurred during a period of warming as opposed to cooling local temperatures indicating other processes besides temperature are controlling long-term water isotope traits in this region. We have evidence that these changes in precipitation isotope traits are controlled in large part by an increases in moisture being sourced from a warming N Atlantic Ocean that is providing evaporated, isotopically-depleted precipitation to the region. Thus, the warming of the N Atlantic Ocean appears to influence the climate and the precipitation isotopes of Northeastern coastal regions and could be a larger water source to watersheds in this North American region.

Lunar mare TiO2 abundances estimated from UV/Vis reflectance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, Hiroyuki; Robinson, Mark S.; Lawrence, Samuel J.; Denevi, Brett W.; Hapke, Bruce; Jolliff, Bradley L.; Hiesinger, Harald

2017-11-01

The visible (400-700 nm) and near-infrared (700-2800 nm) reflectance of the lunar regolith is dominantly controlled by variations in the abundance of plagioclase, iron-bearing silicate minerals, opaque minerals (e.g., ilmenite), and maturation products (e.g., agglutinate glass, radiation-produced rims on soil grains, and Fe-metal). The same materials control reflectance into the near-UV (250-400 nm) with varying degrees of importance. A key difference is that while ilmenite is spectrally neutral in the visible to near-infrared, it exhibits a diagnostic upturn in reflectance in the near-UV, at wavelengths shorter than about 450 nm. The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Wide Angle Camera (WAC) filters were specifically designed to take advantage of this spectral feature to enable more accurate mapping of ilmenite within mare soils than previously possible. Using the reflectance measured at 321 and 415 nm during 62 months of repeated near-global WAC observations, first we found a linear correlation between the TiO2 contents of the lunar soil samples and the 321/415 nm ratio of each sample return site. We then used the coefficients from the linear regression and the near-global WAC multispectral mosaic to derive a new TiO2 map. The average TiO2 content is 3.9 wt% for the 17 major maria. The highest TiO2 values were found in Mare Tranquillitatis (∼12.6 wt%) and Oceanus Procellarum (∼11.6 wt%). Regions contaminated by highland ejecta, lunar swirls, and the low-TiO2 maria (e.g., Mare Frigoris, the northeastern units of Mare Imbrium) exhibit very low TiO2 values (<2 wt%). We find that the Clementine visible to near-infrared based TiO2 maps (Lucey et al., 2000) have systematically higher values relative to the WAC estimates. The Lunar Prospector Gamma-Ray Spectrometer (GRS) TiO2 map is consistent with the WAC TiO2 map, although there are local offsets possibly due to the different depth sensitivities and large pixel scale of the GRS relative to the WAC. We find a wide variation of TiO2 abundances (from 0 to 10 wt%) for early mare volcanism (>2.6 Ga), whereas only medium to high TiO2 values (average = 6.8 wt%, minimum = 4.5 wt%) are found for younger mare units (<2.6 Ga).

How Well Can Aerosol Measurements from the Terra Morning Polar Orbiting Satellite Represent the Daily Aerosol Abundance and Properties?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufman, Y. J.; Holben, B. N.; Tanre, D.; Slutzker, I.; Eck, T. F.; Smirnov, A.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The Terra mission, launched at the dawn of 1999, and Aqua mission to be launched soon, will possess innovative measurements of the aerosol daily spatial distribution, distinguish between dust, smoke and regional pollution and measure aerosol radiative forcing of climate. Their polar orbit gives daily global coverage, however measurements are acquired at specific time of the day. To what degree can present measurements from Terra taken between 10:00 and 11:30 AM local time, represent the daily average aerosol forcing of climate? Here we answer this question using 7 years of data from the distributed ground based 50-70 instrument Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) This (AERONET) half a million measurement data set shows that Terra aerosol measurements represent the daily average values within 5%. The excellent representation is found for large dust particles or small aerosol particles from Fires or regional pollution and for any range of the optical thickness, a measure of the amount of aerosol in the atmosphere.

Prediction of South China sea level using seasonal ARIMA models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, Flerida Regine; Po, Rodolfo; Montero, Neil; Addawe, Rizavel

2017-11-01

Accelerating sea level rise is an indicator of global warming and poses a threat to low-lying places and coastal countries. This study aims to fit a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model to the time series obtained from the TOPEX and Jason series of satellite radar altimetries of the South China Sea from the year 2008 to 2015. With altimetric measurements taken in a 10-day repeat cycle, monthly averages of the satellite altimetry measurements were taken to compose the data set used in the study. SARIMA models were then tried and fitted to the time series in order to find the best-fit model. Results show that the SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 model best fits the time series and was used to forecast the values for January 2016 to December 2016. The 12-month forecast using SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 shows that the sea level gradually increases from January to September 2016, and decreases until December 2016.

Global effects of land use on local terrestrial biodiversity.

PubMed

Newbold, Tim; Hudson, Lawrence N; Hill, Samantha L L; Contu, Sara; Lysenko, Igor; Senior, Rebecca A; Börger, Luca; Bennett, Dominic J; Choimes, Argyrios; Collen, Ben; Day, Julie; De Palma, Adriana; Díaz, Sandra; Echeverria-Londoño, Susy; Edgar, Melanie J; Feldman, Anat; Garon, Morgan; Harrison, Michelle L K; Alhusseini, Tamera; Ingram, Daniel J; Itescu, Yuval; Kattge, Jens; Kemp, Victoria; Kirkpatrick, Lucinda; Kleyer, Michael; Correia, David Laginha Pinto; Martin, Callum D; Meiri, Shai; Novosolov, Maria; Pan, Yuan; Phillips, Helen R P; Purves, Drew W; Robinson, Alexandra; Simpson, Jake; Tuck, Sean L; Weiher, Evan; White, Hannah J; Ewers, Robert M; Mace, Georgina M; Scharlemann, Jörn P W; Purvis, Andy

2015-04-02

Human activities, especially conversion and degradation of habitats, are causing global biodiversity declines. How local ecological assemblages are responding is less clear--a concern given their importance for many ecosystem functions and services. We analysed a terrestrial assemblage database of unprecedented geographic and taxonomic coverage to quantify local biodiversity responses to land use and related changes. Here we show that in the worst-affected habitats, these pressures reduce within-sample species richness by an average of 76.5%, total abundance by 39.5% and rarefaction-based richness by 40.3%. We estimate that, globally, these pressures have already slightly reduced average within-sample richness (by 13.6%), total abundance (10.7%) and rarefaction-based richness (8.1%), with changes showing marked spatial variation. Rapid further losses are predicted under a business-as-usual land-use scenario; within-sample richness is projected to fall by a further 3.4% globally by 2100, with losses concentrated in biodiverse but economically poor countries. Strong mitigation can deliver much more positive biodiversity changes (up to a 1.9% average increase) that are less strongly related to countries' socioeconomic status.

Global effects of land use on local terrestrial biodiversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newbold, Tim; Hudson, Lawrence N.; Hill, Samantha L. L.; Contu, Sara; Lysenko, Igor; Senior, Rebecca A.; Börger, Luca; Bennett, Dominic J.; Choimes, Argyrios; Collen, Ben; Day, Julie; de Palma, Adriana; Díaz, Sandra; Echeverria-Londoño, Susy; Edgar, Melanie J.; Feldman, Anat; Garon, Morgan; Harrison, Michelle L. K.; Alhusseini, Tamera; Ingram, Daniel J.; Itescu, Yuval; Kattge, Jens; Kemp, Victoria; Kirkpatrick, Lucinda; Kleyer, Michael; Correia, David Laginha Pinto; Martin, Callum D.; Meiri, Shai; Novosolov, Maria; Pan, Yuan; Phillips, Helen R. P.; Purves, Drew W.; Robinson, Alexandra; Simpson, Jake; Tuck, Sean L.; Weiher, Evan; White, Hannah J.; Ewers, Robert M.; Mace, Georgina M.; Scharlemann, Jörn P. W.; Purvis, Andy

2015-04-01

Human activities, especially conversion and degradation of habitats, are causing global biodiversity declines. How local ecological assemblages are responding is less clear--a concern given their importance for many ecosystem functions and services. We analysed a terrestrial assemblage database of unprecedented geographic and taxonomic coverage to quantify local biodiversity responses to land use and related changes. Here we show that in the worst-affected habitats, these pressures reduce within-sample species richness by an average of 76.5%, total abundance by 39.5% and rarefaction-based richness by 40.3%. We estimate that, globally, these pressures have already slightly reduced average within-sample richness (by 13.6%), total abundance (10.7%) and rarefaction-based richness (8.1%), with changes showing marked spatial variation. Rapid further losses are predicted under a business-as-usual land-use scenario; within-sample richness is projected to fall by a further 3.4% globally by 2100, with losses concentrated in biodiverse but economically poor countries. Strong mitigation can deliver much more positive biodiversity changes (up to a 1.9% average increase) that are less strongly related to countries' socioeconomic status.

Global Positioning System Use in the Community to Evaluate Improvements in Walking After Revascularization

PubMed Central

Gernigon, Marie; Le Faucheur, Alexis; Fradin, Dominique; Noury-Desvaux, Bénédicte; Landron, Cédric; Mahe, Guillaume; Abraham, Pierre

2015-01-01

Abstract Revascularization aims at improving walking ability in patients with arterial claudication. The highest measured distance between 2 stops (highest-MDCW), the average walking speed (average-WSCW), and the average stop duration (average-DSCW) can be measured by global positioning system, but their evolution after revascularization is unknown. We included 251 peripheral artery diseased patients with self-reported limiting claudication. The patients performed a 1-hour stroll, recorded by a global positioning system receiver. Patients (n = 172) with confirmed limitation (highest-MDCW <2000m) at inclusion were reevaluated after 6 months. Patients revascularized during the follow-up period were compared with reference patients (ie, with unchanged lifestyle medical or surgical status). Other patients (lost to follow-up or treatment change) were excluded (n = 89). We studied 44 revascularized and 39 reference patients. Changes in highest-MDCW (+442 vs. +13 m) and average-WSCW (+0.3 vs. −0.2 km h−1) were greater in revascularized than in reference patients (both P < 0.01). In contrast, no significant difference in average-DSCW changes was found between the groups. Among the revascularized patients, 13 (29.5%) had a change in average-WSCW, but not in highest-MDCW, greater than the mean + 1 standard deviation of the change observed for reference patients. Revascularization may improve highest-MDCW and/or average-WSCW. This first report of changes in community walking ability in revascularized patients suggests that, beyond measuring walking distances, average-WSCW measurement is essential to monitor these changes. Applicability to other surgical populations remains to be evaluated. Registration: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01141361 PMID:25950694

Global positioning system use in the community to evaluate improvements in walking after revascularization: a prospective multicenter study with 6-month follow-up in patients with peripheral arterial disease.

PubMed

Gernigon, Marie; Le Faucheur, Alexis; Fradin, Dominique; Noury-Desvaux, Bénédicte; Landron, Cédric; Mahe, Guillaume; Abraham, Pierre

2015-05-01

Revascularization aims at improving walking ability in patients with arterial claudication. The highest measured distance between 2 stops (highest-MDCW), the average walking speed (average-WSCW), and the average stop duration (average-DSCW) can be measured by global positioning system, but their evolution after revascularization is unknown.We included 251 peripheral artery diseased patients with self-reported limiting claudication. The patients performed a 1-hour stroll, recorded by a global positioning system receiver. Patients (n = 172) with confirmed limitation (highest-MDCW <2000m) at inclusion were reevaluated after 6 months. Patients revascularized during the follow-up period were compared with reference patients (ie, with unchanged lifestyle medical or surgical status). Other patients (lost to follow-up or treatment change) were excluded (n = 89).We studied 44 revascularized and 39 reference patients. Changes in highest-MDCW (+442 vs. +13 m) and average-WSCW (+0.3 vs. -0.2 km h) were greater in revascularized than in reference patients (both P < 0.01). In contrast, no significant difference in average-DSCW changes was found between the groups. Among the revascularized patients, 13 (29.5%) had a change in average-WSCW, but not in highest-MDCW, greater than the mean + 1 standard deviation of the change observed for reference patients.Revascularization may improve highest-MDCW and/or average-WSCW. This first report of changes in community walking ability in revascularized patients suggests that, beyond measuring walking distances, average-WSCW measurement is essential to monitor these changes. Applicability to other surgical populations remains to be evaluated. http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01141361.

Comparing the Rates of Retinal Nerve Fiber Layer and Ganglion Cell-Inner Plexiform Layer Loss in Healthy Eyes and in Glaucoma Eyes.

PubMed

Hammel, Naama; Belghith, Akram; Weinreb, Robert N; Medeiros, Felipe A; Mendoza, Nadia; Zangwill, Linda M

2017-06-01

To compare the rates of circumpapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) and macular retinal ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer (GCIPL) change over time in healthy and glaucoma eyes. Cohort study. The rates of circumpapillary RNFL and macular GCIPL loss in 28 healthy subjects and 97 glaucoma subjects from the Diagnostic Innovations in Glaucoma Study (DIGS) were compared using mixed-effects models. The median follow-up time and number of visits were 1.7 years and 6 visits and 3.2 years and 7 visits for healthy and glaucoma eyes, respectively. Significant rates of loss of both global circumpapillary RNFL and average macular GCIPL thickness were detectable in early and moderate glaucoma eyes; in severe glaucoma eyes, rates of average macular GCIPL loss were significant, but rates of global circumpapillary RNFL loss were not. In glaucoma eyes, mean rates of global circumpapillary RNFL thickness change (-0.98 μm/year [95% confidence interval (CI), -1.20 to -0.76]) and normalized global circumpapillary RNFL change (-1.7%/year [95% CI, -2.1 to -1.3]) were significantly faster than average macular GCIPL change (-0.57 μm/year [(95% CI, -0.73 to -0.41]) and normalized macular GCIPL change (-1.3%/year [95% CI, -1.7 to -0.9]). The rates of global and inferior RNFL change were weakly correlated with global and inferior macular GCIPL change (r ranges from 0.16 to 0.23, all P < .05). In this cohort, the rate of circumpapillary RNFL thickness change was faster than macular GCIPL change for glaucoma eyes. Global circumpapillary RNFL thickness loss was detectable in early and moderate glaucoma, and average macular GCIPL thickness loss was detectable in early, moderate, and severe glaucoma, suggesting that structural changes can be detected in severe glaucoma. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

CERES Monthly TOA and SRB Averages (SRBAVG) data in HDF-EOS Grid (CER_SRBAVG_Terra-FM2-MODIS_Edition2C)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A. (Principal Investigator)

The Monthly TOA/Surface Averages (SRBAVG) product contains a month of space and time averaged Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The SRBAVG is also produced for combinations of scanner instruments. The monthly average regional flux is estimated using diurnal models and the 1-degree regional fluxes at the hour of observation from the CERES SFC product. A second set of monthly average fluxes are estimated using concurrent diurnal information from geostationary satellites. These fluxes are given for both clear-sky and total-sky scenes and are spatially averaged from 1-degree regions to 1-degree zonal averages and a global average. For each region, the SRBAVG also contains hourly average fluxes for the month and an overall monthly average. The cloud properties from SFC are column averaged and are included on the SRBAVG. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-02-01; Stop_Date=2003-02-28] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1 degree; Longitude_Resolution=1 degree; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=100 km - < 250 km or approximately 1 degree - < 2.5 degrees; Temporal_Resolution=1 month; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Monthly - < Annual].

CERES Monthly TOA and SRB Averages (SRBAVG) data in HDF-EOS Grid (CER_SRBAVG_TRMM-PFM-VIRS_Edition2B)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A. (Principal Investigator)

The Monthly TOA/Surface Averages (SRBAVG) product contains a month of space and time averaged Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The SRBAVG is also produced for combinations of scanner instruments. The monthly average regional flux is estimated using diurnal models and the 1-degree regional fluxes at the hour of observation from the CERES SFC product. A second set of monthly average fluxes are estimated using concurrent diurnal information from geostationary satellites. These fluxes are given for both clear-sky and total-sky scenes and are spatially averaged from 1-degree regions to 1-degree zonal averages and a global average. For each region, the SRBAVG also contains hourly average fluxes for the month and an overall monthly average. The cloud properties from SFC are column averaged and are included on the SRBAVG. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-02-01; Stop_Date=2000-03-31] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1 degree; Longitude_Resolution=1 degree; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=100 km - < 250 km or approximately 1 degree - < 2.5 degrees; Temporal_Resolution=1 month; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Monthly - < Annual].

CERES Monthly TOA and SRB Averages (SRBAVG) data in HDF-EOS Grid (CER_SRBAVG_Terra-FM1-MODIS_Edition2C)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A. (Principal Investigator)

The Monthly TOA/Surface Averages (SRBAVG) product contains a month of space and time averaged Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The SRBAVG is also produced for combinations of scanner instruments. The monthly average regional flux is estimated using diurnal models and the 1-degree regional fluxes at the hour of observation from the CERES SFC product. A second set of monthly average fluxes are estimated using concurrent diurnal information from geostationary satellites. These fluxes are given for both clear-sky and total-sky scenes and are spatially averaged from 1-degree regions to 1-degree zonal averages and a global average. For each region, the SRBAVG also contains hourly average fluxes for the month and an overall monthly average. The cloud properties from SFC are column averaged and are included on the SRBAVG. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-02-01; Stop_Date=2003-02-28] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1 degree; Longitude_Resolution=1 degree; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=100 km - < 250 km or approximately 1 degree - < 2.5 degrees; Temporal_Resolution=1 month; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Monthly - < Annual].

CERES Monthly TOA and SRB Averages (SRBAVG) data in HDF-EOS Grid (CER_SRBAVG_Terra-FM1-MODIS_Edition2D)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A. (Principal Investigator)

The Monthly TOA/Surface Averages (SRBAVG) product contains a month of space and time averaged Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The SRBAVG is also produced for combinations of scanner instruments. The monthly average regional flux is estimated using diurnal models and the 1-degree regional fluxes at the hour of observation from the CERES SFC product. A second set of monthly average fluxes are estimated using concurrent diurnal information from geostationary satellites. These fluxes are given for both clear-sky and total-sky scenes and are spatially averaged from 1-degree regions to 1-degree zonal averages and a global average. For each region, the SRBAVG also contains hourly average fluxes for the month and an overall monthly average. The cloud properties from SFC are column averaged and are included on the SRBAVG. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-02-01; Stop_Date=2004-05-31] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1 degree; Longitude_Resolution=1 degree; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=100 km - < 250 km or approximately 1 degree - < 2.5 degrees; Temporal_Resolution=1 month; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Monthly - < Annual].

Defining the minimum temporal and spatial scales available from a new 72-month Nimbus-7 Earth Radiation Budget climate data set

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Randel, D. L.; Campbell, G. G.; Vonder Haar, T. H.; Smith, L.

1986-01-01

Scale factors and assumptions which were applied in calculations of global radiation budget parameters based on ERB data are discussed. The study was performed to examine the relationship between the composite global ERB map that can be generated every six days using all available data and the actual average global ERB. The wide field of view ERB instrument functioned for the first 19 months of the Nimbus-7 life, and furnished sufficient data for calculating actual ERB averages. The composite was most accurate in regions with the least variation in radiation budget.

Effect of intermodular connection on fast sparse synchronization in clustered small-world neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Sang-Yoon; Lim, Woochang

2015-11-01

We consider a clustered network with small-world subnetworks of inhibitory fast spiking interneurons and investigate the effect of intermodular connection on the emergence of fast sparsely synchronized rhythms by varying both the intermodular coupling strength Jinter and the average number of intermodular links per interneuron Msyn(inter ). In contrast to the case of nonclustered networks, two kinds of sparsely synchronized states such as modular and global synchronization are found. For the case of modular sparse synchronization, the population behavior reveals the modular structure, because the intramodular dynamics of subnetworks make some mismatching. On the other hand, in the case of global sparse synchronization, the population behavior is globally identical, independently of the cluster structure, because the intramodular dynamics of subnetworks make perfect matching. We introduce a realistic cross-correlation modularity measure, representing the matching degree between the instantaneous subpopulation spike rates of the subnetworks, and examine whether the sparse synchronization is global or modular. Depending on its magnitude, the intermodular coupling strength Jinter seems to play "dual" roles for the pacing between spikes in each subnetwork. For large Jinter, due to strong inhibition it plays a destructive role to "spoil" the pacing between spikes, while for small Jinter it plays a constructive role to "favor" the pacing between spikes. Through competition between the constructive and the destructive roles of Jinter, there exists an intermediate optimal Jinter at which the pacing degree between spikes becomes maximal. In contrast, the average number of intermodular links per interneuron Msyn(inter ) seems to play a role just to favor the pacing between spikes. With increasing Msyn(inter ), the pacing degree between spikes increases monotonically thanks to the increase in the degree of effectiveness of global communication between spikes. Furthermore, we employ the realistic sub- and whole-population order parameters, based on the instantaneous sub- and whole-population spike rates, to determine the threshold values for the synchronization-unsynchronization transition in the sub- and whole populations, and the degrees of global and modular sparse synchronization are also measured in terms of the realistic sub- and whole-population statistical-mechanical spiking measures defined by considering both the occupation and the pacing degrees of spikes. It is expected that our results could have implications for the role of the brain plasticity in some functional behaviors associated with population synchronization.

Engineering Ethics Education Having Reflected Various Values and a Global Code of Ethics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanemitsu, Hidekazu

At the present day, a movement trying to establish a global code of ethics for science and engineering is in activity. The author overviews the context of this movement, and examines the possibility of engineering ethics education which uses global code of ethics. In this paper, the engineering ethics education which uses code of ethics in general will be considered, and an expected function of global code of ethics will be also. Engineering ethics education in the new century should be aimed to share the values among different countries and cultures. To use global code of ethics as a tool for such education, the code should include various values, especially Asian values which engineering ethics has paid little attention to.

Reduction of Averaging Time for Evaluation of Human Exposure to Radiofrequency Electromagnetic Fields from Cellular Base Stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Byung Chan; Park, Seong-Ook

In order to determine exposure compliance with the electromagnetic fields from a base station's antenna in the far-field region, we should calculate the spatially averaged field value in a defined space. This value is calculated based on the measured value obtained at several points within the restricted space. According to the ICNIRP guidelines, at each point in the space, the reference levels are averaged over any 6min (from 100kHz to 10GHz) for the general public. Therefore, the more points we use, the longer the measurement time becomes. For practical application, it is very advantageous to spend less time for measurement. In this paper, we analyzed the difference of average values between 6min and lesser periods and compared it with the standard uncertainty for measurement drift. Based on the standard deviation from the 6min averaging value, the proposed minimum averaging time is 1min.

Modulation of thyroid hormone receptors by non-thyroidal stimuli

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

ErkenBrack, D.E.; Clemons, G.K.

1988-01-01

The ability of non-thyroidal stimuli to affect the binding affinity and capacity of solubilized nuclear receptors for thyroid hormones was studied in a normal homeostatic system (erythropoiesis) and a pathobiologic one (lung-ozone interaction). No significant effects on affinity were found, as Kd control values for receptors derived from rat bone marrow averaged 57 (+/- 28) pM while experimental (hypoxic) values averaged 89 (+/- 55) pM. Kd control values in rat lung were found to average 142 (+/- 22) pM while average values derived from experimental protocols with ozone and methimazole were 267 (+/- 44) pM and 161 (+/- 35) pMmore » respectively. Finally, Kd control values for receptors derived from cultured MEL cells averaged 19 (+/- 2.6) pM while experimental values during exposure to DMSO or IGF1 were 23 (+/- 3.6) pM and 26 (+/- 11) pM respectively. In contrast, binding capacity (expressed as fmoles of hormone bound per unit protein of solubilized receptor) was markedly perturbed in several tissues by various agents: ozone effects on lung were shown by an average control value of 3.3 (+/- 0.4) as opposed to an experimental average of 28 (+/- 1.9); and hypoxia effects on erythroid tissue were displayed by an average control value of 0.7 (+/- 0.07) as opposed to the experimental figure of 1.8 (+/- 0.03). In cultured MEL cells, binding capacity was seen to be increased from control values of 388 (+/- 15) sites/cell to 1243 (+/- 142) sites/cell after DMSO exposure and 2002 (+/- 10) sites/cell after IGF1 exposure. Parallel experiments done with receptors derived from rat liver yielded values similar to those reported by other investigators and were unaffected by the experimental agents.« less

Design of a pulse oximeter for price sensitive emerging markets.

PubMed

Jones, Z; Woods, E; Nielson, D; Mahadevan, S V

2010-01-01

While the global market for medical devices is located primarily in developed countries, price sensitive emerging markets comprise an attractive, underserved segment in which products need a unique set of value propositions to be competitive. A pulse oximeter was designed expressly for emerging markets, and a novel feature set was implemented to reduce the cost of ownership and improve the usability of the device. Innovations included the ability of the device to generate its own electricity, a built in sensor which cuts down on operating costs, and a graphical, symbolic user interface. These features yield an average reduction of over 75% in the device cost of ownership versus comparable pulse oximeters already on the market.

Forecasting Electric Power Generation of Photovoltaic Power System for Energy Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kudo, Mitsuru; Takeuchi, Akira; Nozaki, Yousuke; Endo, Hisahito; Sumita, Jiro

Recently, there has been an increase in concern about the global environment. Interest is growing in developing an energy network by which new energy systems such as photovoltaic and fuel cells generate power locally and electric power and heat are controlled with a communications network. We developed the power generation forecast method for photovoltaic power systems in an energy network. The method makes use of weather information and regression analysis. We carried out forecasting power output of the photovoltaic power system installed in Expo 2005, Aichi Japan. As a result of comparing measurements with a prediction values, the average prediction error per day was about 26% of the measured power.

Oral azithromycin for treatment of posterior blepharitis.

PubMed

Igami, Thais Zamudio; Holzchuh, Ricardo; Osaki, Tammy Hentona; Santo, Ruth Miyuki; Kara-Jose, Newton; Hida, Richard Y

2011-10-01

To evaluate the effects of oral azithromycin in patients with posterior blepharitis. Twenty-six eyes of 13 patients with posterior blepharitis diagnosed by a qualified ophthalmologist were enrolled in this study. Patients were instructed to use oral azithromycin 500 mg per day for 3 days in 3 cycles with 7-day intervals. Subjective clinical outcomes were graded and scored 1 day before and 30 days after the end of the treatment (53 days after initiating the treatment) based on severity scores of: (1) eyelid debris; (2) eyelid telangiectasia; (3) swelling of the eyelid margin; (4) redness of the eyelid margin; and (5) ocular mucus secretion. For the assessment of global efficacy, patients were asked by the investigator to rate the subjective symptoms (eyelid itching, ocular itching, eyelid hyperemia, ocular hyperemia, ocular mucus secretion, photophobia, foreign body sensation, and dry eye sensation) on a scale of 0 (no symptoms) to 5 (severe symptoms). Break-up time, Schirmer I test, corneal fluorescein staining score, and rose bengal staining score were also performed in all patients. All clinical outcomes scoring showed statistically significant improvement after oral azithromycin, except for eyelid swelling. Average subjective symptom grading improved statistically after treatment with oral azithromycin, except for eyelid hyperemia, photophobia, and foreign body sensation. Average tear film break-up time values showed statistically significant improvement after the treatment with oral azithromycin. No statistically significant improvement was observed on average values of Schirmer I test, corneal fluorescein staining score, and rose bengal staining score. The combination of multiple clinical parameters shown in this study supports the clinical efficacy of pulsed oral azithromycin therapy for the management of posterior blepharitis.

Large Decadal Decline of the Arctic Multiyear Ice Cover

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.

2012-01-01

The perennial ice area was drastically reduced to 38% of its climatological average in 2007 but recovered slightly in 2008, 2009, and 2010 with the areas being 10%, 24%, and 11% higher than in 2007, respectively. However, trends in extent and area remained strongly negative at -12.2% and -13.5% decade (sup -1), respectively. The thick component of the perennial ice, called multiyear ice, as detected by satellite data during the winters of 1979-2011 was studied, and results reveal that the multiyear ice extent and area are declining at an even more rapid rate of -15.1% and -17.2% decade(sup -1), respectively, with a record low value in 2008 followed by higher values in 2009, 2010, and 2011. Such a high rate in the decline of the thick component of the Arctic ice cover means a reduction in the average ice thickness and an even more vulnerable perennial ice cover. The decline of the multiyear ice area from 2007 to 2008 was not as strong as that of the perennial ice area from 2006 to 2007, suggesting a strong role of second-year ice melt in the latter. The sea ice cover is shown to be strongly correlated with surface temperature, which is increasing at about 3 times the global average in the Arctic but appears weakly correlated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which controls the atmospheric circulation in the region. An 8-9-yr cycle is apparent in the multiyear ice record, which could explain, in part, the slight recovery in the last 3 yr.

Radiative Forcing Due to Enhancements in Tropospheric Ozone and Carbonaceous Aerosols Caused by Asian Fires During Spring 2008

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Natarajan, Murali; Pierce, R. Bradley; Lenzen, Allen J.; Al-Saadi, Jassim A.; Soja, Amber J.; Charlock, Thomas P.; Rose, Fred G.; Winker, David M.; Worden, John R.

2012-01-01

Simulations of tropospheric ozone and carbonaceous aerosol distributions, conducted with the Real-time Air Quality Modeling System (RAQMS), are used to study the effects of major outbreaks of fires that occurred in three regions of Asia, namely Thailand, Kazakhstan, and Siberia, during spring 2008. RAQMS is a global scale meteorological and chemical modeling system. Results from these simulations, averaged over April 2008, indicate that tropospheric ozone column increases by more than 10 Dobson units (DU) near the Thailand region, and by lesser amounts in the other regions due to the fires. Widespread increases in the optical depths of organic and black carbon aerosols are also noted. We have used an off-line radiative transfer model to evaluate the direct radiative forcing due to the fire-induced changes in atmospheric composition. For clear sky, the monthly averaged radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is mostly negative with peak values less than -12 W/sq m occurring near the fire regions. The negative forcing represents the increased outgoing shortwave radiation caused by scattering due to carbonaceous aerosols. At high latitudes, the radiative forcing is positive due to the presence of absorbing aerosols over regions of high surface albedo. Regions of positive forcing at TOA are more pronounced under total sky conditions. The monthly averaged radiative forcing at the surface is mostly negative, and peak values of less than -30 W/sq m occur near the fire regions. Persistently large negative forcing at the surface could alter the surface energy budget and potentially weaken the hydrological cycle.

Comparing the structure of an emerging market with a mature one under global perturbation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Namaki, A.; Jafari, G. R.; Raei, R.

2011-09-01

In this paper we investigate the Tehran stock exchange (TSE) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) in terms of perturbed correlation matrices. To perturb a stock market, there are two methods, namely local and global perturbation. In the local method, we replace a correlation coefficient of the cross-correlation matrix with one calculated from two Gaussian-distributed time series, whereas in the global method, we reconstruct the correlation matrix after replacing the original return series with Gaussian-distributed time series. The local perturbation is just a technical study. We analyze these markets through two statistical approaches, random matrix theory (RMT) and the correlation coefficient distribution. By using RMT, we find that the largest eigenvalue is an influence that is common to all stocks and this eigenvalue has a peak during financial shocks. We find there are a few correlated stocks that make the essential robustness of the stock market but we see that by replacing these return time series with Gaussian-distributed time series, the mean values of correlation coefficients, the largest eigenvalues of the stock markets and the fraction of eigenvalues that deviate from the RMT prediction fall sharply in both markets. By comparing these two markets, we can see that the DJIA is more sensitive to global perturbations. These findings are crucial for risk management and portfolio selection.

Channel Response To Global Warming In East-Central North America: Using The Hypsithermal As A Guide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Springer, G. S.; Rowe, H. D.; Cocina, F. G.

2006-12-01

Average global temperatures during the mid-Holocene Hypsithermal Interval were as much as 2° C warmer than present. The Hypsithermal is recorded in sediments of a West Virginia, USA cave as less negative values of &δ13C. The sediments were deposited by floodwaters of the adjacent Greenbrier River. Bat bones and other evidence of subaerial exposure between floods are found throughout silt-dominated sediments, except during the Hypsithermal. Sediments of the Hypsithermal are primarily clays containing occasional marine fossils and insoluble particles liberated from the host limestone during a period of sustained backflooding. Blockage of three widely separated outlets is required for backflooding, which would have occurred if the riverbed aggraded during the Hypsithermal. Warm, dry periods, such as Hypsithermal, are known to produce aggradation of channel beds. The riverbed may have risen as much as 4 m in this case, which is the maximum height of clay above the present bedrock-floored riverbed. Global warming may return the Earth to Hypsithermal conditions and lead to renewed channel infilling. Aggradation of the magnitude inferred here would leave regional floodplains and towns susceptible to frequent flooding. Societal and economic costs associated with living in close association with streams and rivers would significantly increase and channel infrastructure would be disrupted. Global warming has the potential to fundamentally alter society's relationship to the physical properties of river channels in Eastern North America.

Reversible immobilization of free-ranging snow leopards (panthera uncia) with a combination of medetomidine and tiletamine-zolazepam.

PubMed

Johansson, Örjan; Malmsten, Jonas; Mishra, Charudutt; Lkhagvajav, Purevjav; McCarthy, Tom

2013-04-01

Conservation and research of the elusive snow leopard (Panthera uncia) have been hampered by inadequate knowledge about its basic life history. Global positioning system (GPS) collars can provide useful information, but there has been limited information available on safe capture methods, drug doses, and efficacy for effective immobilization of free-ranging snow leopards. We describe a drug protocol using a combination of medetomidine and tiletamine-zolazepam for the chemical immobilization of free-ranging snow leopards. We also describe physiologic responses to immobilization drugs, including rectal temperature, heart rate, respiratory rate, and relative hemoglobin oxygen saturation (SpO2) recorded every 10 min. Our study was carried out in the Tost Mountains adjacent to the Great Gobi Desert, in southern Mongolia, between August 2008 and April 2012. Eighteen snow leopards were captured or recaptured with foot-snares on 42 occasions and anesthetized for marking with GPS collars. The snow leopards received on average (±SD) 0.020±0.04 mg/kg body mass medetomidine and 2.17±0.45 mg/kg tiletamine-zolazepam. The duration of ensuing anesthesia was 69±13 min, including an induction period of 10 (±4) min. Anesthesia was reversed with 4 mg (0.10±0.04 mg/kg) atipamezole administered intramuscularly. The mean value for SpO2 for the 37 captures where we could record physiologic values was 91±4. The SpO2 increased significantly during anesthesia (+0.06±0.02%/min), whereas rectal temperature (average 38.1±0.7 C/min, change -0.04±0.003 C/min), heart rate (average 97±9 beats/min, change -0.20±0.03 beats/min), and respiratory rate (average 26±6 breaths/min, change -0.11±0.03 breaths/min) decreased significantly. A dose of 80 mg tiletamine-zolazepam (2 mg/kg body weight) and 0.72 mg medetomidine (0.02 mg/kg body weight) safely immobilized all adult and subadult snow leopards (weight 25-45 kg) in our study. All measured physiologic values remained within clinically acceptable limits.

Effects of cloud, aerosol, and ozone on surface spectral Ultraviolet and total irradiance observed in Seoul, Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hana; Kim, Jhoon; Kim, Woogyung; Lee, Yun Gon; Cho, Hi Ku

2015-04-01

In recent years, there have been substantial attempts to model the radiative transfer for climatological and biological purposes. However, the incorporation of clouds, aerosols and ozone into the modeling process is one of the difficult tasks due to their variable transmission in both temporal and space domains. In this study we quantify the atmospheric transmissions by clouds, aerosol optical depth (AOD at 320 nm) and total ozone (Ozone) together with all skies in three solar radiation components of the global solar (GS 305-2800nm), total ultraviolet (TUV 290-363nm) and the erythemal weighted ultraviolet (EUV 290-325nm) irradiances with statistical methods using the data at Seoul. The purpose of this study also is to clarify the different characteristics between cloud, AOD and Ozone in the wavelength-dependent solar radiation components. The ozone, EUV and TUV used in this study (March 2003 - February 2014) have been measured with Dobson Spectrophotometer (Beck #124) and Brewer Spectrophotometer (SCI-TEC#148) at Yonsei University, respectively. GS, Cloud Cover (CC) are available from the Korean Meteorological Agency. The measured total (effect of cloud, aerosol, and ozone) transmissions on annual average showed 74%, 76% and 80% of GS, TUV and EUV irradiance, respectively. For the comparison of the measured values with modeled, we have also constructed a multiple linear regression model for the total transmission. The average ratio of measured to modeled total transmission were 0.94, 0.96 and 0.96 with higher measured than modeled value in the three components, respectively, The individual transmission by clouds under the constant AOD and Ozone atmosphere on average showed 68%, 71% and 76% and further the overcast clouds reduced the transmissions to the 45%, 54% and 59% of the clear sky irradiance in the GS, TUV and EUV, respectively. The annual transmissions by AOD showed on average 67%, 70% and 74% and further the high loadings 2.5-4.0 AOD reduced the transmission to 50%, 52% and 55% of clear sky irradiance under the contact cloud and ozone atmosphere in the GS, TUV and EUV, respectively. And annual average EUV transmission by Ozone was 75 % of the clear-sky value under the constant CC and AOD. In future study, we are compare OMI data with ground-based instruments in order to use measured data for scientific studies.

Interpreting the paleo-redox record: Mn enrichment factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chun, C. O.; Delaney, M. L.

2006-12-01

Redox-sensitive metal enrichment factors (EF), have the ability to describe the redox chemistry of the overlying water and marine sediments at time of burial. Manganese (Mn) precipitates as Mn-rich oxyhydroxides in oxic environments, leading to sedimentary EF > 1 calculated relative to average continental crust as the presumed detrital source. Mn EF can also occur from source changes that are unrelated to redox changes. We compared bulk sediment digestions to sample splits treated with a reductive cleaning step prior to sediment digestion, to test whether the Mn EF are from oxyhydroxides. We measured sedimentary Mn EF for the past 30 m.y. for a Nazca Ridge site in the southeast Pacific (ODP Site 1237). The site is marked by a pronounced color change at 162 mcd, within an interval dominated by calcareous-rich lithology, prompting questions of source versus paleo-redox changes. Mn EF were measured across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) at three sites on Walvis Ridge in the southeast Atlantic (ODP Sites 1262, 1266, and 1263). The PETM global warming event leads to questions of redox changes. At Nazca Ridge Mn EF range from 10-70 prior to the change with decrease to crustal averages after the boundary. After two reductive cleanings on sediments exhibiting Mn EF >1, Mn EF were at crustal averages. Mn EF prior to the color change are oxyhydroxides and not a major input of detrital material. We suggest the color change represents a paleo-redox boundary, more oxygenated depositional setting prior to the change and more reducing depositional setting afterwards. Walvis Ridge PETM sections exhibit Mn EF values ranging between 4 and 12 prior to the warming, values at crustal averages during the warming, return to pre-event values in the recovery period. After the reductive cleaning procedure the deep (1262) and intermediate (1266) sites with Mn EF >1 before and after the warming event reduced to crustal averages with no change to Mn EF during the event. Bottom waters at those two sites were most likely oxygenated prior to the event, reducing at the onset of the warming, and returned to pre-event conditions in the recovery. Future studies of Mn EF as a paleo-redox indicator should include the reductive cleaning procedure to verify Mn-oxyhydroxides.

Global spatially explicit CO2 emission metrics at 0.25° horizontal resolution for forest bioenergy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cherubini, F.

2015-12-01

Bioenergy is the most important renewable energy option in studies designed to align with future RCP projections, reaching approximately 250 EJ/yr in RCP2.6, 145 EJ/yr in RCP4.5 and 180 EJ/yr in RCP8.5 by the end of the 21st century. However, many questions enveloping the direct carbon cycle and climate response to bioenergy remain partially unexplored. Bioenergy systems are largely assessed under the default climate neutrality assumption and the time lag between CO2 emissions from biomass combustion and CO2 uptake by vegetation is usually ignored. Emission metrics of CO2 from forest bioenergy are only available on a case-specific basis and their quantification requires processing of a wide spectrum of modelled or observed local climate and forest conditions. On the other hand, emission metrics are widely used to aggregate climate impacts of greenhouse gases to common units such as CO2-equivalents (CO2-eq.), but a spatially explicit analysis of emission metrics with global forest coverage is today lacking. Examples of emission metrics include the global warming potential (GWP), the global temperature change potential (GTP) and the absolute sustained emission temperature (aSET). Here, we couple a global forest model, a heterotrophic respiration model, and a global climate model to produce global spatially explicit emission metrics for CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy. We show their applications to global emissions in 2015 and until 2100 under the different RCP scenarios. We obtain global average values of 0.49 ± 0.03 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2-1 (mean ± standard deviation), 0.05 ± 0.05 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2-1, and 2.14·10-14 ± 0.11·10-14 °C (kg yr-1)-1, and 2.14·10-14 ± 0.11·10-14 °C (kg yr-1)-1 for GWP, GTP and aSET, respectively. We also present results aggregated at a grid, national and continental level. The metrics are found to correlate with the site-specific turnover times and local climate variables like annual mean temperature and precipitation. Simplified equations are derived to infer metric values from the turnover time of the biomass feedstock and the fraction of forest residues left on site after harvest. Our results provide a basis for assessing CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy under different indicators and across various spatial and temporal scales.

Cloudsat tropical cyclone database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tourville, Natalie D.

CloudSat (CS), the first 94 GHz spaceborne cloud profiling radar (CPR), launched in 2006 to study the vertical distribution of clouds. Not only are CS observations revealing inner vertical cloud details of water and ice globally but CS overpasses of tropical cyclones (TC's) are providing a new and exciting opportunity to study the vertical structure of these storm systems. CS TC observations are providing first time vertical views of TC's and demonstrate a unique way to observe TC structure remotely from space. Since December 2009, CS has intersected every globally named TC (within 1000 km of storm center) for a total of 5,278 unique overpasses of tropical systems (disturbance, tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane/typhoon/cyclone (HTC)). In conjunction with the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), each CS TC overpass is processed into a data file containing observational data from the afternoon constellation of satellites (A-TRAIN), Navy's Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System Model (NOGAPS), European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model and best track storm data. This study will describe the components and statistics of the CS TC database, present case studies of CS TC overpasses with complementary A-TRAIN observations and compare average reflectivity stratifications of TC's across different atmospheric regimes (wind shear, SST, latitude, maximum wind speed and basin). Average reflectivity stratifications reveal that characteristics in each basin vary from year to year and are dependent upon eye overpasses of HTC strength storms and ENSO phase. West Pacific (WPAC) basin storms are generally larger in size (horizontally and vertically) and have greater values of reflectivity at a predefined height than all other basins. Storm structure at higher latitudes expands horizontally. Higher vertical wind shear (≥ 9.5 m/s) reduces cloud top height (CTH) and the intensity of precipitation cores, especially in HTC strength storms. Average zero and ten dBZ height thresholds confirm WPAC storms loft precipitation sized particles higher into the atmosphere than in other basins. Two CS eye overpasses (32 hours apart) of a weakening Typhoon Nida in 2009 reveal the collapse of precipitation cores, warm core anomaly and upper tropospheric ice water content (IWC) under steady moderate shear conditions.

Non-adaptive and adaptive hybrid approaches for enhancing water quality management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalwij, Ineke M.; Peralta, Richard C.

2008-09-01

SummaryUsing optimization to help solve groundwater management problems cost-effectively is becoming increasingly important. Hybrid optimization approaches, that combine two or more optimization algorithms, will become valuable and common tools for addressing complex nonlinear hydrologic problems. Hybrid heuristic optimizers have capabilities far beyond those of a simple genetic algorithm (SGA), and are continuously improving. SGAs having only parent selection, crossover, and mutation are inefficient and rarely used for optimizing contaminant transport management. Even an advanced genetic algorithm (AGA) that includes elitism (to emphasize using the best strategies as parents) and healing (to help assure optimal strategy feasibility) is undesirably inefficient. Much more efficient than an AGA is the presented hybrid (AGCT), which adds comprehensive tabu search (TS) features to an AGA. TS mechanisms (TS probability, tabu list size, search coarseness and solution space size, and a TS threshold value) force the optimizer to search portions of the solution space that yield superior pumping strategies, and to avoid reproducing similar or inferior strategies. An AGCT characteristic is that TS control parameters are unchanging during optimization. However, TS parameter values that are ideal for optimization commencement can be undesirable when nearing assumed global optimality. The second presented hybrid, termed global converger (GC), is significantly better than the AGCT. GC includes AGCT plus feedback-driven auto-adaptive control that dynamically changes TS parameters during run-time. Before comparing AGCT and GC, we empirically derived scaled dimensionless TS control parameter guidelines by evaluating 50 sets of parameter values for a hypothetical optimization problem. For the hypothetical area, AGCT optimized both well locations and pumping rates. The parameters are useful starting values because using trial-and-error to identify an ideal combination of control parameter values for a new optimization problem can be time consuming. For comparison, AGA, AGCT, and GC are applied to optimize pumping rates for assumed well locations of a complex large-scale contaminant transport and remediation optimization problem at Blaine Naval Ammunition Depot (NAD). Both hybrid approaches converged more closely to the optimal solution than the non-hybrid AGA. GC averaged 18.79% better convergence than AGCT, and 31.9% than AGA, within the same computation time (12.5 days). AGCT averaged 13.1% better convergence than AGA. The GC can significantly reduce the burden of employing computationally intensive hydrologic simulation models within a limited time period and for real-world optimization problems. Although demonstrated for a groundwater quality problem, it is also applicable to other arenas, such as managing salt water intrusion and surface water contaminant loading.

Plasma Klotho and Cognitive Decline in Older Adults: Findings From the InCHIANTI Study

PubMed Central

Semba, Richard D.; Rosano, Caterina; Kalyani, Rita R.; Bandinelli, Stefania; Chia, Chee W.; Ferrucci, Luigi

2016-01-01

Background. The hormone klotho, encoded by the gene klotho, is primarily expressed in the kidney and choroid plexus of the brain. Higher klotho concentrations and certain genetic variants of klotho have been linked to better cognition; however, it is unknown whether klotho relates prospectively to slower cognitive decline in older adults. Methods: Plasma klotho was measured in 833 participants aged 55 or older without dementia enrolled in InCHIANTI, a prospective cohort study comprising Italian adults. Cognition was measured by Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Trail-Making Tests A and B (Trails A and Trails B) at enrollment and at 3 and 6 years after enrollment. We assessed whether klotho concentrations measured at the 3-year visit related to cognition and cognitive decline. Results: Each additional natural logarithm of klotho (pg/mL) was associated with 35% lower risk of meaningful decline in MMSE, defined as decline exceeding three points (relative risk = 0.65; 95% confidence interval 0.45, 0.95; p value = .02), and 0.75-point smaller average 3-year decline (baseline to 3-year visit) in MMSE (95% confidence interval 0.02, 1.48; p value = .04). No statistically significant associations were found between klotho and declining Trails A (relative risk = 0.99; 95% confidence interval 0.75, 1.32; p value = .97) and B (relative risk = 1.02; 95% confidence interval 0.84, 1.24; p value = .82). Conclusions: Higher plasma klotho concentrations were associated with lower risk of meaningful decline and smaller average decline in MMSE. We did not observe such findings with Trails A and B, perhaps because they test executive function and motor skills, whereas MMSE measures global cognition. Future studies should investigate mechanisms through which klotho may affect domain-specific cognitive changes. PMID:26297657

The water footprint of humanity.

PubMed

Hoekstra, Arjen Y; Mekonnen, Mesfin M

2012-02-28

This study quantifies and maps the water footprint (WF) of humanity at a high spatial resolution. It reports on consumptive use of rainwater (green WF) and ground and surface water (blue WF) and volumes of water polluted (gray WF). Water footprints are estimated per nation from both a production and consumption perspective. International virtual water flows are estimated based on trade in agricultural and industrial commodities. The global annual average WF in the period 1996-2005 was 9,087 Gm(3)/y (74% green, 11% blue, 15% gray). Agricultural production contributes 92%. About one-fifth of the global WF relates to production for export. The total volume of international virtual water flows related to trade in agricultural and industrial products was 2,320 Gm(3)/y (68% green, 13% blue, 19% gray). The WF of the global average consumer was 1,385 m(3)/y. The average consumer in the United States has a WF of 2,842 m(3)/y, whereas the average citizens in China and India have WFs of 1,071 and 1,089 m(3)/y, respectively. Consumption of cereal products gives the largest contribution to the WF of the average consumer (27%), followed by meat (22%) and milk products (7%). The volume and pattern of consumption and the WF per ton of product of the products consumed are the main factors determining the WF of a consumer. The study illustrates the global dimension of water consumption and pollution by showing that several countries heavily rely on foreign water resources and that many countries have significant impacts on water consumption and pollution elsewhere.

Retrieving atmospheric transmissivity for biologically active daily dose, in various european sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de La Casinière, A.; Touré, M. L.; Lenoble, J.; Cabot, T.

2003-04-01

In the frame of the European Project EDUCE, global UV irradiance spectra recorded all along the year in several European sites are stored in a common database located in Finland. From the spectra set of some of these stations, are calculated atmospheric transmissivities for daily doses of four biologically active UV radiation, namely: UV-B, erythema, DNA damage, and plant damage. A transmissivity is defined as the ratio of the ground level value of the daily dose of interest to its corresponding extra-atmospheric value. Multiple linear correlation of the various transmissivities with three predictors (daily sunshine fraction, cosine of the daily minimum SZA, and daily total ozone column) assumed to be independent variables, are done for year 2000. The coefficients obtained from year 2000 correlation in a given site are expected to retrieve, from the local predictors, the daily dose for year 2001 in the same site, the average error being lesser than 10% for monthly mean values, and lesser than 5% for three-monthly mean values, depending on the daily dose type. Comparison of yearly mean daily doses retrieved in a given site from coefficients obtained in other sites is also presented.

Missing data imputation of solar radiation data under different atmospheric conditions.

PubMed

Turrado, Concepción Crespo; López, María Del Carmen Meizoso; Lasheras, Fernando Sánchez; Gómez, Benigno Antonio Rodríguez; Rollé, José Luis Calvo; Juez, Francisco Javier de Cos

2014-10-29

Global solar broadband irradiance on a planar surface is measured at weather stations by pyranometers. In the case of the present research, solar radiation values from nine meteorological stations of the MeteoGalicia real-time observational network, captured and stored every ten minutes, are considered. In this kind of record, the lack of data and/or the presence of wrong values adversely affects any time series study. Consequently, when this occurs, a data imputation process must be performed in order to replace missing data with estimated values. This paper aims to evaluate the multivariate imputation of ten-minute scale data by means of the chained equations method (MICE). This method allows the network itself to impute the missing or wrong data of a solar radiation sensor, by using either all or just a group of the measurements of the remaining sensors. Very good results have been obtained with the MICE method in comparison with other methods employed in this field such as Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). The average RMSE value of the predictions for the MICE algorithm was 13.37% while that for the MLR it was 28.19%, and 31.68% for the IDW.

Missing Data Imputation of Solar Radiation Data under Different Atmospheric Conditions

PubMed Central

Turrado, Concepción Crespo; López, María del Carmen Meizoso; Lasheras, Fernando Sánchez; Gómez, Benigno Antonio Rodríguez; Rollé, José Luis Calvo; de Cos Juez, Francisco Javier

2014-01-01

Global solar broadband irradiance on a planar surface is measured at weather stations by pyranometers. In the case of the present research, solar radiation values from nine meteorological stations of the MeteoGalicia real-time observational network, captured and stored every ten minutes, are considered. In this kind of record, the lack of data and/or the presence of wrong values adversely affects any time series study. Consequently, when this occurs, a data imputation process must be performed in order to replace missing data with estimated values. This paper aims to evaluate the multivariate imputation of ten-minute scale data by means of the chained equations method (MICE). This method allows the network itself to impute the missing or wrong data of a solar radiation sensor, by using either all or just a group of the measurements of the remaining sensors. Very good results have been obtained with the MICE method in comparison with other methods employed in this field such as Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). The average RMSE value of the predictions for the MICE algorithm was 13.37% while that for the MLR it was 28.19%, and 31.68% for the IDW. PMID:25356644

Atmospheric methane from organic carbon mobilization in sedimentary basins — The sleeping giant?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroeger, K. F.; di Primio, R.; Horsfield, B.

2011-08-01

The mass of organic carbon in sedimentary basins amounts to a staggering 10 16 t, dwarfing the mass contained in coal, oil, gas and all living systems by ten thousand-fold. The evolution of this giant mass during subsidence and uplift, via chemical, physical and biological processes, not only controls fossil energy resource occurrence worldwide, but also has the capacity for driving global climate: only a tiny change in the degree of leakage, particularly if focused through the hydrate cycle, can result in globally significant greenhouse gas emissions. To date, neither climate models nor atmospheric CO 2 budget estimates have quantitatively included methane from thermal or microbial cracking of sedimentary organic matter deep in sedimentary basins. Recent estimates of average low latitude Eocene surface temperatures beyond 30 °C require extreme levels of atmospheric CO 2. Methane degassing from sedimentary basins may be a mechanism to explain increases of atmospheric CO 2 to values as much as 20 times higher than pre-industrial values. Increased natural gas emission could have been set in motion either by global tectonic processes such as pulses of activity in the global alpine fold belt, leading to increased basin subsidence and maturation rates in the prolific Jurassic and Cretaceous organic-rich sediments, or by increased magmatic activity such as observed in the northern Atlantic around the Paleocene-Eocene boundary. Increased natural gas emission would have led to global warming that was accentuated by long lasting positive feedback effects through temperature transfer from the surface into sedimentary basins. Massive gas hydrate dissociation may have been an additional positive feedback factor during hyperthermals superimposed on long term warming, such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). As geologic sources may have contributed over one third of global atmospheric methane in pre-industrial time, variability in methane flux from sedimentary basins may have driven global climate not only at time scales of millions of years, but also over geologically short periods of time. Earth system models linking atmospheric, ocean and earth surface processes at different timescales with the sedimentary organic carbon cycle are the tools that need to be developed in order to investigate the role of methane from sedimentary basins in earth's climate.

49 CFR 537.9 - Determination of fuel economy values and average fuel economy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 49 Transportation 6 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Determination of fuel economy values and average fuel economy. 537.9 Section 537.9 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation... ECONOMY REPORTS § 537.9 Determination of fuel economy values and average fuel economy. (a) Vehicle...

49 CFR 537.9 - Determination of fuel economy values and average fuel economy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 49 Transportation 6 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Determination of fuel economy values and average fuel economy. 537.9 Section 537.9 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation... ECONOMY REPORTS § 537.9 Determination of fuel economy values and average fuel economy. (a) Vehicle...

49 CFR 537.9 - Determination of fuel economy values and average fuel economy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 49 Transportation 6 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Determination of fuel economy values and average fuel economy. 537.9 Section 537.9 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation... ECONOMY REPORTS § 537.9 Determination of fuel economy values and average fuel economy. (a) Vehicle...

49 CFR 537.9 - Determination of fuel economy values and average fuel economy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 49 Transportation 6 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Determination of fuel economy values and average fuel economy. 537.9 Section 537.9 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation... ECONOMY REPORTS § 537.9 Determination of fuel economy values and average fuel economy. (a) Vehicle...

Profile of Prospective Physics Teachers on Assessment Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Efendi, R.; Rustaman, N. Y.; Kaniawati, I.

2017-02-01

A study about assessment literacy of prospective Physics teachers was conducted with the involvement of 45 prospective physics teachers. Data collected by using test consisted of seven competencies. The profile of prospective physics teachers on assessment literacy determined in descriptive statistics, in the form of respondent average values. Research finding shows that prospective physics teachers were weak at all competency areas. The average values of the Choosing assessment methods appropriate for instructional decisions is the highest average values and the average values of the communicating assessment results to students, parents, other lay audiences, and other educators is the lowest average values. In depth study to detect the reason underlined the results was still in progress so far, as another aspect was planned to be administered on the next semester.

Global collaborative healthcare: assessing the resource requirements at a leading Academic Medical Center.

PubMed

Rosson, Nicole J; Hassoun, Heitham T

2017-09-20

Academic Medical Centers ("AMCs") have served as a hub of the United States ("US") health system and represented the state-of-the art in American health care for well over a century. Currently, the global healthcare market is both massive and expanding and is being altered by the unprecedented impact of technological advances and globalization. This provides AMCs a platform to enter into trans-national collaborative partnerships with healthcare organizations around the world, thus providing a means to deliver on its promise globally while also expanding and diversifying its resources. A number of leading US AMCs have engaged in global collaborative healthcare, employing different models based on services offered, global distribution, and inclination to assume risk. Engaging in these collaborations requires significant effort from across the health system, and an understanding of the resources required is paramount for effective delivery and to avoid overextension and diversion from the primary mission of these organizations. The goal of this paper is to discuss the role of US AMCs in this current global healthcare landscape and to also investigate our institutional faculty and staff resource requirements to support the operating model. We extracted and retrospectively analyzed data from the JHI Global Services database for a 3-year period (Jan, 2013-Dec, 2015) to determine total utilization (hours and full time equivalent (FTE)), utilization by profession, and clinical and non-clinical areas of expertise. JHI utilized on average 21,940 h annually, or 10.55 FTEs of faculty and staff subject matter experts. The majority of the hours are for work performed by physician faculty members from 23 departments within the School of Medicine, representing 77% percent or on average 16,894 h annually. Clinical and allied health departments had an average annual utilization of 17,642 h or 7.8 FTEs, while non-clinical departments, schools and institutes averaged 4298 h or 1.9 FTEs, representing 80.4% and 19.6% respectively. We found that significant human resources are required within a broad range of AMC subject matter expertise across multiple disciplines, and that with adequate forecasting AMCs can successfully engage in these collaborations while continuing to fulfill their core mission.

From a declaration of values to the creation of value in global health: a report from Harvard University's Global Health Delivery Project.

PubMed

Kim, J Y; Rhatigan, J; Jain, S H; Weintraub, R; Porter, M E

2010-01-01

To make best use of the new dollars available for the treatment of disease in resource-poor settings, global health practice requires a strategic approach that emphasises value for patients. Practitioners and global health academics should seek to identify and elaborate the set of factors that drives value for patients through the detailed study of actual care delivery organisations in multiple settings. Several frameworks can facilitate this study, including the care delivery value chain. We report on our efforts to catalyse the study of health care delivery in resource-limited settings in the hope that this inquiry will lead to insights that can improve the health of the neediest worldwide.

Global baseline data on phosphorus pollution of large lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fink, Gabriel; Flörke, Martina; Alcamo, Joseph

2016-04-01

Lakes are exposed to harmful eutrophication which is the most concerning water quality issue on global scale. Eutrophication is caused by phosphorous pollution in most lakes. Hence, global consistent base line data on phosphorus loadings are needed to assess future sustainable development. We used the modeling framework WaterGAP3 to calculate present total phosphorus loadings to the world's largest lakes. Estimates of modeled total phosphorus (TP) loadings as well as the contributions of different sectors were successfully validated against measured data. Based on these findings, annual total phosphorus loadings to lakes were calculated for diffuse and point sources according to the different sectors domestic, manufacturing, urban surface runoff, agriculture and background for the time period 1990 to 2010. Our results show high phosphorus loadings into lakes in southern latitudes. On global average, industrial fertilizer is the main anthropogenic source while background loadings are low in comparison. Nevertheless, both features indicate a high potential to reduce the exposure to eutrophication in lakes which are faced with high phosphor inputs. The global average of TP loadings was 7% higher in the time period 2005-2010 than in the period 1990-1995. The global average in 2005-2010 results from an increase in TP loadings of 79% in South America, which was dampened by a decrease in Europe, North America, and Asia. Chinese lakes were exposed to massive increasing phosphorus loadings, too. Both increasing and decreasing trends are caused primarily by changing industrial fertilizer application rates. In conclusion, this study provides a consistent and model based synopsis of global trends and sources of phosphorus loadings to large lakes. The estimates of phosphorus pollution of lakes present a basis for assessing and managing the global eutrophication problem.

U.S. Residential Photovoltaic (PV) System Prices, Q4 2013 Benchmarks: Cash Purchase, Fair Market Value, and Prepaid Lease Transaction Prices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davidson, C.; James, T. L.; Margolis, R.

The price of photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States (i.e., the cost to the system owner) has dropped precipitously in recent years, led by substantial reductions in global PV module prices. This report provides a Q4 2013 update for residential PV systems, based on an objective methodology that closely approximates the book value of a PV system. Several cases are benchmarked to represent common variation in business models, labor rates, and module choice. We estimate a weighted-average cash purchase price of $3.29/W for modeled standard-efficiency, polycrystalline-silicon residential PV systems installed in the United States. This is a 46% declinemore » from the 2013-dollar-adjusted price reported in the Q4 2010 benchmark report. In addition, this report frames the cash purchase price in the context of key price metrics relevant to the continually evolving landscape of third-party-owned PV systems by benchmarking the minimum sustainable lease price and the fair market value of residential PV systems.« less

Lightness of an object under two illumination levels.

PubMed

Zdravković, Suncica; Economou, Elias; Gilchrist, Alan

2006-01-01

Anchoring theory (Gilchrist et al, 1999 Psychological Review 106 795-834) predicts a wide range of lightness errors, including failures of constancy in multi-illumination scenes and a long list of well-known lightness illusions seen under homogeneous illumination. Lightness values are computed both locally and globally and then averaged together. Local values are computed within a given region of homogeneous illumination. Thus, for an object that extends through two different illumination levels, anchoring theory produces two values, one for the patch in brighter illumination and one for the patch in dimmer illumination. Observers can give matches for these patches separately, but they can also give a single match for the whole object. Anchoring theory in its current form is unable to predict these object matches. We report eight experiments in which we studied the relationship between patch matches and object matches. The results show that the object match represents a compromise between the match for the patch in the field of highest illumination and the patch in the largest field of illumination. These two principles are parallel to the rules found for anchoring lightness: highest luminance rule and area rule.

Impacts of the large increase in international ship traffic 2000-2007 on tropospheric ozone and methane.

PubMed

Dalsøren, Stig B; Eide, Magnus S; Myhre, Gunnar; Endresen, Oyvind; Isaksen, Ivar S A; Fuglestvedt, Jan S

2010-04-01

The increase in civil world fleet ship emissions during the period 2000-2007 and the effects on key tropospheric oxidants are quantified using a global Chemical Transport Model (CTM). We estimate a substantial increase of 33% in global ship emissions over this period. The impact of ship emissions on tropospheric oxidants is mainly caused by the relatively large fraction of NOx in ship exhaust. Typical increases in yearly average surface ozone concentrations in the most impacted areas are 0.5-2.5 ppbv. The global annual mean radiative forcing due to ozone increases in the troposphere is 10 mWm(-2) over the period 2000-2007. We find global average tropospheric OH increase of 1.03% over the same period. As a result of this the global average tropospheric methane concentration is reduced by approximately 2.2% over a period corresponding to the turnover time. The resulting methane radiative forcing is -14 mWm(-2) with an additional contribution of -6 mWm(-2) from methane induced reduction in ozone. The net forcing of the ozone and methane changes due to ship emissions changes between 2000 and 2007 is -10 mWm(-2). This is significant compared to the net forcing of these components in 2000. Our findings support earlier observational studies indicating that ship traffic may be a major contributor to recent enhancement of background ozone at some coastal stations. Furthermore, by reducing global mean tropospheric methane by 40 ppbv over its turnover time it is likely to contribute to the recent observed leveling off in global mean methane concentration.

The Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index in Relation to Sunspot Number, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index, the Mauna Loa Atmospheric Concentration of CO2, and Anthropogenic Carbon Emissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2013-01-01

Global warming/climate change has been a subject of scientific interest since the early 19th century. In particular, increases in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) have long been thought to account for Earth's increased warming, although the lack of a dependable set of observational data was apparent as late as the mid 1950s. However, beginning in the late 1950s, being associated with the International Geophysical Year, the opportunity arose to begin accurate continuous monitoring of the Earth's atmospheric concentration of CO2. Consequently, it is now well established that the atmospheric concentration of CO2, while varying seasonally within any particular year, has steadily increased over time. Associated with this rising trend in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is a rising trend in the surface-air and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). This Technical Publication (TP) examines the statistical relationships between 10-year moving averages (10-yma) of the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GLOTI), sunspot number (SSN), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index, and the Mauna Loa CO2 (MLCO2) index for the common interval 1964-2006, where the 10-yma values are used to indicate trends in the data. Scatter plots using the 10-yma values between GLOTI and each of the other parameters are determined, both as single-variate and multivariate fits. Scatter plots are also determined for MLCO2 using single-variate and bivariate (BV) fits, based on the GLOTI alone and the GLOTI in combination with the AMO index. On the basis of the inferred preferential fits for MLCO2, estimates for MLCO2 are determined for the interval 1885-1964, thereby yielding an estimate of the preindustrial level of atmospheric concentration of CO2. Lastly, 10-yma values of MLCO2 are compared against 10-yma estimates of the total carbon emissions (TCE) to determine the likelihood that manmade sources of carbon emissions are indeed responsible for the recent warming now being experienced. (Parametric values used in this TP are those available prior to the end of 2012.)

Combining near- and far-field exposure for an organ-specific and whole-body RF-EMF proxy for epidemiological research: a reference case.

PubMed

Lauer, Oliver; Frei, Patrizia; Gosselin, Marie-Christine; Joseph, Wout; Röösli, Martin; Fröhlich, Jürg

2013-07-01

A framework for the combination of near-field (NF) and far-field (FF) radio frequency electromagnetic exposure sources to the average organ and whole-body specific absorption rates (SARs) is presented. As a reference case, values based on numerically derived SARs for whole-body and individual organs and tissues are combined with realistic exposure data, which have been collected using personal exposure meters during the Swiss Qualifex study. The framework presented can be applied to any study region where exposure data is collected by appropriate measurement equipment. Based on results derived from the data for the region of Basel, Switzerland, the relative importance of NF and FF sources to the personal exposure is examined for three different study groups. The results show that a 24-h whole-body averaged exposure of a typical mobile phone user is dominated by the use of his or her own mobile phone when a Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) 900 or GSM 1800 phone is used. If only Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) phones are used, the user would experience a lower exposure level on average caused by the lower average output power of UMTS phones. Data presented clearly indicate the necessity of collecting band-selective exposure data in epidemiological studies related to electromagnetic fields. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Ecological study of road traffic injuries in the eastern Mediterranean region: country economic level, road user category and gender perspectives.

PubMed

Sengoelge, Mathilde; Laflamme, Lucie; El-Khatib, Ziad

2018-02-13

The Eastern Mediterranean region has the second highest number of road traffic injury mortality rates after the African region based on 2013 data, with road traffic injuries accounting for 27% of the total injury mortality in the region. Globally the number of road traffic deaths has plateaued despite an increase in motorization, but it is uncertain whether this applies to the Region. This study investigated the regional trends in both road traffic injury mortality and morbidity and examined country-based differences considering on income level, categories of road users, and gender distribution. Register-based ecological study linking data from Global Burden of Disease Study with the United Nations Statistics Division for population and World Bank definition for country income level. Road traffic injury mortality rates and disability-adjusted life years were compiled for all ages at country level in 1995, 2005, 2015 and combined for a regional average (n = 22) and a global average (n = 122). The data were stratified by country economic level, road user category and gender. Road traffic injury mortality rates in the Region were higher than the global average for all three reference years but suggest a downward trend. In 2015 mortality rates were more than twice as high in low and high income countries compared to global income averages and motor vehicle occupants had a 3-fold greater mortality than the global average. Severe injuries decreased by more than half for high/middle income countries but remained high for low income countries; three times higher for males than females. Despite a potential downward trend, inequalities in road traffic injury mortality and morbidity burden remain high in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Action needs to be intensified and targeted to implement and enforce safety measures that prevent and mitigate severe motor vehicle crashes in high income countries especially and invest in efforts to promote public, active transport for vulnerable road users in the resource poor countries of the Region.

BETR Global - A geographically explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Macleod, M.; Waldow, H. von; Tay, P.

2011-04-01

We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15{sup o} x 15{sup o} grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

The ocean quasi-homogeneous layer model and global cycle of carbon dioxide in system of atmosphere-ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glushkov, Alexander; Glushkov, Alexander; Loboda, Nataliya; Khokhlov, Valery; Serbov, Nikoly; Svinarenko, Andrey

The purpose of this paper is carrying out the detailed model of the CO2 global turnover in system of "atmosphere-ocean" with using the ocean quasi-homogeneous layer model. Practically all carried out models are functioning in the average annual regime and accounting for the carbon distribution in bio-sphere in most general form (Glushkov et al, 2003). We construct a modified model for cycle of the carbon dioxide, which allows to reproduce a season dynamics of carbon turnover in ocean with account of zone ocean structure (up quasi-homogeneous layer, thermocline and deepest layer). It is taken into account dependence of the CO2 transfer through the bounder between atmosphere and ocean upon temperature of water and air, wind velocity, buffer mechanism of the CO2 dissolution. The same program is realized for atmosphere part of whole system. It is obtained a tempo-ral and space distribution for concentration of non-organic carbon in ocean, partial press of dissolute CO2 and value of exchange on the border between atmosphere and ocean. It is estimated a role of the wind intermixing of the up ocean layer. The increasing of this effect leads to increasing the plankton mass and further particles, which are transferred by wind, contribute to more quick immersion of microscopic shells and organic material. It is fulfilled investigation of sen-sibility of the master differential equations system solutions from the model parameters. The master differential equa-tions system, describing a dynamics of the CO2 cycle, is numerically integrated by the four order Runge-Cutt method under given initial values of valuables till output of solution on periodic regime. At first it is indicated on possible real-zation of the chaos scenario in system. On our data, the difference of the average annual values for the non-organic car-bon concentration in the up quasi-homogeneous layer between equator and extreme southern zone is 0.15 mol/m3, be-tween the equator and extreme northern zone is 0.12 mol/m3. the maximum amplitude of season oscillations (40° -50° n.l.) is 0.07 mol/m3. A link between global cycle of carbon dioxide and global climate change is investigated. Refrences: Glushkov A.V., Khokhlov V.N., Prepelitsa G.P., Tsenenko I.A., Optics of atmosphere and ocean.-2004.-Vol.14,N7.-p.219-223; Glushkov A.V., Loboda N.S., Khokhlov V.N., Atmospheric Research (Elseiver).-2005.-Vol.77.-P.100-113;Glushkov A.V., Loboda N.S., Khokhlov V.N., Lovett L. Journal of Hydrology (Elseiver).-2006.-Vol. 322. N1-4.-P.14-24; Glushkov A.V., Khokhlov V.N., Loboda N.S., Quart.J.Royal Meteorol. Soc.-2006.-Vol.132.- pp.447-465; Glushkov A.V., Khokhlov V.N., Loboda N.S., Ponomarenko E.L., Environm. Inf. Arch.-2003.-Vol.1.-P.125-130.

Average Potential Temperature of the Upper Mantle and Excess Temperatures Beneath Regions of Active Upwelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putirka, K. D.

2006-05-01

The question as to whether any particular oceanic island is the result of a thermal mantle plume, is a question of whether volcanism is the result of passive upwelling, as at mid-ocean ridges, or active upwelling, driven by thermally buoyant material. When upwelling is passive, mantle temperatures reflect average or ambient upper mantle values. In contrast, sites of thermally driven active upwellings will have elevated (or excess) mantle temperatures, driven by some source of excess heat. Skeptics of the plume hypothesis suggest that the maximum temperatures at ocean islands are similar to maximum temperatures at mid-ocean ridges (Anderson, 2000; Green et al., 2001). Olivine-liquid thermometry, when applied to Hawaii, Iceland, and global MORB, belie this hypothesis. Olivine-liquid equilibria provide the most accurate means of estimating mantle temperatures, which are highly sensitive to the forsterite (Fo) contents of olivines, and the FeO content of coexisting liquids. Their application shows that mantle temperatures in the MORB source region are less than temperatures at both Hawaii and Iceland. The Siqueiros Transform may provide the most precise estimate of TpMORB because high MgO glass compositions there have been affected only by olivine fractionation, so primitive FeOliq is known; olivine thermometry yields TpSiqueiros = 1430 ±59°C. A global database of 22,000 MORB show that most MORB have slightly higher FeOliq than at Siqueiros, which translates to higher calculated mantle potential temperatures. If the values for Fomax (= 91.5) and KD (Fe-Mg)ol-liq (= 0.29) at Siqueiros apply globally, then upper mantle Tp is closer to 1485 ± 59°C. Averaging this global estimate with that recovered at Siqueiros yields TpMORB = 1458 ± 78°C, which is used to calculate plume excess temperatures, Te. The estimate for TpMORB defines the convective mantle geotherm, and is consistent with estimates from sea floor bathymetry and heat flow (Stein and Stein, 1992), and overlap within 1 sigma estimates from phase transitions at the 410 km (Jeanloz and Thompson, 1983) and 670 km (Hirose, 2002) seismic discontinuities. Variations in MORB FeOliq can be used to calculate the variance of TpMORB. FeOliq variations in global MORB show that 95% of the sub-MORB mantle has a T range of 165°C; 68% of MORB fall within temperature variations of ±30°C. In comparison, Te at Hawaii and Iceland are 1706°C and 1646°C respectively, and hence Te> is 248°C at Hawaii and 188°C at Iceland. Tp estimates at Hawaii and Iceland also exceed maximum Tp estimates at MORs (at 95% level) by 171 and 111°C respectively. These Te are in agreement with estimates derived from excess topography and dynamic models of mantle flow and melt generation (e.g., Sleep, 1990, Schilling, 1991, Ito et al., 1999). A clear result is that Hawaii and Iceland are hot relative to MORB. Rayleigh number calculations further show that for these Te, critical depths (i.e., the depths at which Ra > 1000) are < 130 km. Hawaii and Iceland are thus almost assuredly the result of thermally driven, active upwellings, or mantle plumes.

Measurements of tropospheric NO2 in Romania using a zenith-sky mobile DOAS system and comparisons with satellite observations.

PubMed

Constantin, Daniel-Eduard; Merlaud, Alexis; Van Roozendael, Michel; Voiculescu, Mirela; Fayt, Caroline; Hendrick, François; Pinardi, Gaia; Georgescu, Lucian

2013-03-20

In this paper we present a new method for retrieving tropospheric NO2 Vertical Column Density (VCD) from zenith-sky Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) measurements using mobile observations. This method was used during three days in the summer of 2011 in Romania, being to our knowledge the first mobile DOAS measurements peformed in this country. The measurements were carried out over large and different areas using a mobile DOAS system installed in a car. We present here a step-by-step retrieval of tropospheric VCD using complementary observations from ground and space which take into account the stratospheric contribution, which is a step forward compared to other similar studies. The detailed error budget indicates that the typical uncertainty on the retrieved NO2tropospheric VCD is less than 25%. The resulting ground-based data set is compared to satellite measurements from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2). For instance, on 18 July 2011, in an industrial area located at 47.03°N, 22.45°E, GOME-2 observes a tropospheric VCD value of (3.4 ± 1.9) × 1015 molec./cm2, while average mobile measurements in the same area give a value of (3.4 ± 0.7) × 10(15) molec./cm2. On 22 August 2011, around Ploiesti city (44.99°N, 26.1°E), the tropospheric VCD observed by satellites is (3.3 ± 1.9) × 10(15) molec./cm2 (GOME-2) and (3.2 ± 3.2) × 10(15) molec./cm2 (OMI), while average mobile measurements give (3.8 ± 0.8) × 10(15) molec./cm2. Average ground measurements over "clean areas", on 18 July 2011, give (2.5 ± 0.6) × 10(15) molec./cm2 while the satellite observes a value of (1.8 ± 1.3) × 10(15) molec./cm2.

Measurements of Tropospheric NO2 in Romania Using a Zenith-Sky Mobile DOAS System and Comparisons with Satellite Observations

PubMed Central

Constantin, Daniel-Eduard; Merlaud, Alexis; Van Roozendael, Michel; Voiculescu, Mirela; Fayt, Caroline; Hendrick, François; Pinardi, Gaia; Georgescu, Lucian

2013-01-01

In this paper we present a new method for retrieving tropospheric NO2 Vertical Column Density (VCD) from zenith-sky Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) measurements using mobile observations. This method was used during three days in the summer of 2011 in Romania, being to our knowledge the first mobile DOAS measurements peformed in this country. The measurements were carried out over large and different areas using a mobile DOAS system installed in a car. We present here a step-by-step retrieval of tropospheric VCD using complementary observations from ground and space which take into account the stratospheric contribution, which is a step forward compared to other similar studies. The detailed error budget indicates that the typical uncertainty on the retrieved NO2tropospheric VCD is less than 25%. The resulting ground-based data set is compared to satellite measurements from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2). For instance, on 18 July 2011, in an industrial area located at 47.03°N, 22.45°E, GOME-2 observes a tropospheric VCD value of (3.4 ± 1.9) × 1015 molec./cm2, while average mobile measurements in the same area give a value of (3.4 ± 0.7) × 1015 molec./cm2. On 22 August 2011, around Ploiesti city (44.99°N, 26.1°E), the tropospheric VCD observed by satellites is (3.3 ± 1.9) × 1015 molec./cm2 (GOME-2) and (3.2 ± 3.2) × 1015 molec./cm2 (OMI), while average mobile measurements give (3.8 ± 0.8) × 1015 molec./cm2. Average ground measurements over “clean areas”, on 18 July 2011, give (2.5 ± 0.6) × 1015 molec./cm2 while the satellite observes a value of (1.8 ± 1.3) × 1015 molec./cm2. PMID:23519349

Rabbit Feces as Feed for Ruminants and as an Energy Source.

PubMed

Peiretti, Pier Giorgio; Tassone, Sonia; Gai, Francesco; Gasco, Laura; Masoero, Giorgio

2014-12-05

There are prospects for using novel feeds from various sources to provide ruminants with alternative sources of protein and energy such as by-products, and animal wastes. Rabbit feces are a concentrated source of fiber and could have commercial potential both as input biomass in anaerobic processes for biogas production, as well as a fibrous source for ruminal degradation. The aims of this work were to assess the potential as ruminant feeding and as biogas production of rabbit feces, in comparison with 12 crops. The chemical composition and the potential and experimental in vitro true digestibility (IVTD) and neutral detergent fiber digestibility (NDFD) of 148 feces samples were determined by using chemical methods, Daisy system digestibility and/or NIRS predictions. The average biomethane potential (BMP) was 286 ± 10 lCH4/kg SV with -4% vs. the crops average. Milk forage unit (milk FU), IVTD and NDFD of feces were 0.54 ± 0.06 milk FU/kg DM, 74% ± 3% and 50% ± 5%, respectively, with comparisons of -19%, -11% and -24% vs. the crops average. Reconstruction of the potential values based on the chemical constituents but using the crop partial least square model well agreed with the NIRS calibrations and cross-validation. In a global NIRS calibration of the feces and crops the relative predicted deviation for IVTD, NDFD and milk FU were 3.1, 2.9 and 2.6, respectively, and only 1.5 for BMP. Running the Daisy system for rabbit feces in rumen fluid gave some inconsistencies, weakened the functional relationships, and appeared not to be correlated with the potential values of IVTD and NDFD. Nevertheless, the energetic potential of feces appears to be similar to some conventional crops at different degrees of maturity. Thus we conclude that rabbit feces has potential value as a ruminant feed and for biogas production.

Information transfer network of global market indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Yup; Kim, Jinho; Yook, Soon-Hyung

2015-07-01

We study the topological properties of the information transfer networks (ITN) of the global financial market indices for six different periods. ITN is a directed weighted network, in which the direction and weight are determined by the transfer entropy between market indices. By applying the threshold method, it is found that ITN undergoes a crossover from the complete graph to a small-world (SW) network. SW regime of ITN for a global crisis is found to be much more enhanced than that for ordinary periods. Furthermore, when ITN is in SW regime, the average clustering coefficient is found to be synchronized with average volatility of markets. We also compare the results with the topological properties of correlation networks.

Climate model biases in seasonality of continental water storage revealed by satellite gravimetry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swenson, Sean; Milly, P.C.D.

2006-01-01

Satellite gravimetric observations of monthly changes in continental water storage are compared with outputs from five climate models. All models qualitatively reproduce the global pattern of annual storage amplitude, and the seasonal cycle of global average storage is reproduced well, consistent with earlier studies. However, global average agreements mask systematic model biases in low latitudes. Seasonal extrema of low‐latitude, hemispheric storage generally occur too early in the models, and model‐specific errors in amplitude of the low‐latitude annual variations are substantial. These errors are potentially explicable in terms of neglected or suboptimally parameterized water stores in the land models and precipitation biases in the climate models.

Combining multiple ecosystem productivity measurements to constrain carbon uptake estimates in semiarid grasslands and shrublands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, G. E.; Krofcheck, D. J.; Collins, S. L.; Litvak, M. E.

2016-12-01

Recent observational and modeling studies have indicated that semiarid ecosystems are more dynamic contributors to the global carbon budget than once thought. Semiarid carbon fluxes, however, are generally small, with high interannual and spatial variability, which suggests that validating their global significance may depend on examining multiple productivity measures and their associated uncertainties and inconsistencies. We examined ecosystem productivity from eddy covariance (NEE), harvest (NPP), and terrestrial biome models (NEPm) at two very similar grassland sites and one creosote shrubland site in the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge of central New Mexico, USA. Our goal was to assess site and methodological correspondence in annual carbon uptake, patterns of interannual variability, and measurement uncertainty. One grassland site was a perennial carbon source losing 30 g C m-2 per year on average, while the other two sites were carbon sources or sinks depending on the year, with average net uptake of 5 and 25 g C m-2 per year at the grassland and shrubland site, respectively. Uncertainty values for cumulative annual NEE overlapped between the three sites in most years. When combined, aboveground and belowground annual NPP measurements were 15% higher than annual NEE values and did not confirm a loss of carbon at any site in any year. Despite differences in mean site carbon balance, year-to-year changes in cumulative annual NEE and NPP were similar at all sites with years 2010 and 2013 being favorable for carbon uptake and 2011 and 2012 being unfavorable at all sites. Modeled NEPm data for a number of nearby grid cells reproduced only a fraction of the observed range in carbon uptake and its interannual variability. These three sites are highly similar in location and climate and multiple carbon flux measurements confirm the high interannual variability in carbon flux. The exact magnitude of these fluxes, however, remains difficult to discern.

Higher Atmosphere Heating due to black carbon Over the Northern Part of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, S.; Singh, S., , Dr

2017-12-01

Light-absorbing, atmospheric particles have gained greater attention in recent years because of their direct and indirect impacts on regional and global climate. Atmospheric black carbon (BC) aerosol (also called soot particle) is a leading climate warming agent, yet uncertainties in the global direct aerosol radiative forcing remain large. Based on a year of aerosol absorption measurements at seven wavelengths, BC concentrations were investigated in Dhanbad, the coal capital of India. Coal is routinely burned for cooking and residential heat as well as in small industries. The mean daily concentrations of ultraviolet-absorbing black carbon measured at 370 nm (UVBC) and black carbon measured at 880 nm (BC) were 9.8 ± 5.7 and 6.5 ± 3.8 μg m-3, respectively. The difference between UVBC and BC, Delta-C, is an indicator of biomass or residential coal burning and averaged 3.29 ± 4.61 μg m-3. An alternative approach uses the calculation of the Angstrom Exponent (AE) to estimate the amounts of biomass/coal and traffic BC. Biomass/coal burning contributed 87% and fossil fuel combustion contributed 13% to the annual average BC concentration. In the post-monsoon season, potential source contribution function analysis showed that air masses came from the central and northwestern Indo-Gangetic Plains resulting in mean UVBC values of 10.9 μg m-3 and BC of 7.2 μg m-3. The mean winter UVBC and BC concentrations were 15.0 and 10.1 μg m-3, respectively. These highest values were largely driven by local sources under conditions of poor dispersion. The direct radiative forcing (DRF) due to UVBC and BC at the surface (SFC) and the top of the atmosphere (TOA) were calculated. The mean atmospheric heating rates due to UVBC and BC were estimated to be 1.40°K day-1 and 1.18°K day-1, respectively. This high heating rate may affect the monsoon circulation in this region.

Impact crater densities on volcanoes and coronae on venus: implications for volcanic resurfacing.

PubMed

Namiki, N; Solomon, S C

1994-08-12

The density of impact craters on large volcanoes on Venus is half the average crater density for the planet. The crater density on some classes of coronae is not significantly different from the global average density, but coronae with extensive associated volcanic deposits have lower crater densities. These results are inconsistent with both single-age and steady-state models for global resurfacing and suggest that volcanoes and coronae with associated volcanism have been active on Venus over the last 500 million years.

Surface albedo observations at Gusev Crater and Meridiani Planum, Mars

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bell, J.F.; Rice, M.S.; Johnson, J. R.; Hare, T.M.

2008-01-01

During the Mars Exploration Rover mission, the Pancam instrument has periodically acquired large-scale panoramic images with its broadband (739??338 nm) filter in order to estimate the Lambert bolometric albedo of the surface along each rover's traverse. In this work we present the full suite of such estimated albedo values measured to date by the Spirit and Opportunity rovers along their traverses in Gusev Crater and Meridiani Planum, respectively. We include estimated bolometric albedo values of individual surface features (e.g., outcrops, dusty plains, aeolian bed forms, wheel tracks, light-toned soils, and crater walls) as well as overall surface averages of the 43 total panoramic albedo data sets acquired to date. We also present comparisons to estimated Lambert albedo values taken from the Mars Global Surveyor Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) along the rovers' traverses, and to the large-scale bolometric albedos of the sites from the Viking Orbiter Infrared Thermal Mapper (IRTM) and Mars Global Surveyor/Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES). The ranges of Pancam-derived albedos at Gusev Crater (0.14 to 0.25) and in Meridiani Planum. (0.10 to 0.18) are in good agreement with IRTM, TES, and MOC orbital measurements. These data sets will be a useful tool and benchmark for future investigations of albodo variations with time, including measurements from orbital instruments like the Context Camera and High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. Long-term, accurate albedo measurements could also be important for future efforts in climate modeling as well as for studies of active surface processes. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

The impact of rapid economic growth and globalization on zinc nutrition in South Korea.

PubMed

Kwun, In-Sook; Do, Mi-Sook; Chung, Hae-Rang; Kim, Yang Ha; Beattie, John H

2009-08-01

Zn deficiency may be widespread in Asian countries such as South Korea. However, dietary habits have changed in response to rapid economic growth and globalization. Zn nutrition in South Koreans has therefore been assessed during a period (1969-1998) of unprecedented economic growth. Cross-sectional food consumption data from the Korean National Nutrition Survey Reports (KNNSR) of South Korea at four separate time points (1969, 1978, 1988 and 1998) were used to calculate Zn, Ca and phytate intakes using various food composition tables, databases and literature values. Nutrient values in local foods were cited from their analysed values. Average Zn intake was 5.8, 4.8 and 5.3 mg/d for 1969, 1978 and 1988 respectively, increasing to 7.3 mg/d in 1998 (73 % of the Korean Dietary Reference Intake). The phytate:Zn molar ratio decreased from 21 to 8 during the study period. Dietary Zn depletion due to marked decreases in cereal consumption, particularly barley which has a low Zn bioavailability, was counterbalanced by marked increases in the consumption of meat and fish, which are also Zn-rich foods. Reduced phytate consumption coincident with increased Zn intake suggests that Zn bioavailability also improved, particularly by 1998. Although total Zn intake was not greatly affected over the initial period of economic growth in South Korea (1969-1988), Zn contributions from different food sources changed markedly and both Zn intake and potential bioavailability were improved by 1998. The study may have implications for Zn nutrition in other Asian countries currently experiencing rapid economic growth.

Surface albedo observations at Gusev Crater and Meridiani Planum, Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, J. F.; Rice, M. S.; Johnson, J. R.; Hare, T. M.

2008-05-01

During the Mars Exploration Rover mission, the Pancam instrument has periodically acquired large-scale panoramic images with its broadband (739 +/- 338 nm) filter in order to estimate the Lambert bolometric albedo of the surface along each rover's traverse. In this work we present the full suite of such estimated albedo values measured to date by the Spirit and Opportunity rovers along their traverses in Gusev Crater and Meridiani Planum, respectively. We include estimated bolometric albedo values of individual surface features (e.g., outcrops, dusty plains, aeolian bed forms, wheel tracks, light-toned soils, and crater walls) as well as overall surface averages of the 43 total panoramic albedo data sets acquired to date. We also present comparisons to estimated Lambert albedo values taken from the Mars Global Surveyor Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) along the rovers' traverses, and to the large-scale bolometric albedos of the sites from the Viking Orbiter Infrared Thermal Mapper (IRTM) and Mars Global Surveyor/Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES). The ranges of Pancam-derived albedos at Gusev Crater (0.14 to 0.25) and in Meridiani Planum (0.10 to 0.18) are in good agreement with IRTM, TES, and MOC orbital measurements. These data sets will be a useful tool and benchmark for future investigations of albedo variations with time, including measurements from orbital instruments like the Context Camera and High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. Long-term, accurate albedo measurements could also be important for future efforts in climate modeling as well as for studies of active surface processes.

Variability of displacement at a point: Implications for earthquake‐size distribution and rupture hazard on faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hecker, Suzanne; Abrahamson, N.A.; Wooddell, Kathryn

2013-01-01

To investigate the nature of earthquake‐magnitude distributions on faults, we compare the interevent variability of surface displacement at a point on a fault from a composite global data set of paleoseismic observations with the variability expected from two prevailing magnitude–frequency distributions: the truncated‐exponential model and the characteristic‐earthquake model. We use forward modeling to predict the coefficient of variation (CV) for the alternative earthquake distributions, incorporating factors that would effect observations of displacement at a site. The characteristic‐earthquake model (with a characteristic‐magnitude range of ±0.25) produces CV values consistent with the data (CV∼0.5) only if the variability for a given earthquake magnitude is small. This condition implies that rupture patterns on a fault are stable, in keeping with the concept behind the model. This constraint also bears upon fault‐rupture hazard analysis, which, for lack of point‐specific information, has used global scaling relations to infer variability in average displacement for a given‐size earthquake. Exponential distributions of earthquakes (from M 5 to the maximum magnitude) give rise to CV values that are significantly larger than the empirical constraint. A version of the model truncated at M 7, however, yields values consistent with a larger CV (∼0.6) determined for small‐displacement sites. Although this result allows for a difference in the magnitude distribution of smaller surface‐rupturing earthquakes, it may reflect, in part, less stability in the displacement profile of smaller ruptures and/or the tails of larger ruptures.

Multi-GNSS signal-in-space range error assessment - Methodology and results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montenbruck, Oliver; Steigenberger, Peter; Hauschild, André

2018-06-01

The positioning accuracy of global and regional navigation satellite systems (GNSS/RNSS) depends on a variety of influence factors. For constellation-specific performance analyses it has become common practice to separate a geometry-related quality factor (the dilution of precision, DOP) from the measurement and modeling errors of the individual ranging measurements (known as user equivalent range error, UERE). The latter is further divided into user equipment errors and contributions related to the space and control segment. The present study reviews the fundamental concepts and underlying assumptions of signal-in-space range error (SISRE) analyses and presents a harmonized framework for multi-GNSS performance monitoring based on the comparison of broadcast and precise ephemerides. The implications of inconsistent geometric reference points, non-common time systems, and signal-specific range biases are analyzed, and strategies for coping with these issues in the definition and computation of SIS range errors are developed. The presented concepts are, furthermore, applied to current navigation satellite systems, and representative results are presented along with a discussion of constellation-specific problems in their determination. Based on data for the January to December 2017 time frame, representative global average root-mean-square (RMS) SISRE values of 0.2 m, 0.6 m, 1 m, and 2 m are obtained for Galileo, GPS, BeiDou-2, and GLONASS, respectively. Roughly two times larger values apply for the corresponding 95th-percentile values. Overall, the study contributes to a better understanding and harmonization of multi-GNSS SISRE analyses and their use as key performance indicators for the various constellations.

Signal-averaged P wave in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Rosenheck, S

1997-10-01

The theoretical and experimental rational of atrial signal-averaged ECG in patients with AF is delay in the intra-atrial and interatrial conduction. Similar to the ventricular signal-averaged ECG, the atrial signal-averaged ECG is an averaging of a high number of consecutive P waves that match the template created earlier P wave triggering is preferred over QRS triggering because of more accurate aligning. However, the small amplitude of the atrial ECG and its gradual increase from the isoelectric line may create difficulties in defining the start point if P wave triggering is used. Studies using P wave triggering and those using QRS triggering demonstrate a prolonged P wave duration in patients with paroxysmal AF. The negative predictive value of this test is relatively high at 60%-80%. The positive predictive value of atrial signal-averaged ECGs in predicting the risk of AF is considerably lower than the negative predictive value. All the data accumulated prospectively on the predictive value of P wave signal-averaging was determined only in patients undergoing coronary bypass surgery or following MI; its value in other patients with paroxysmal AF is still not determined. The clinical role of frequency-domain analysis (alone or added to time-domain analysis) remains undefined. Because of this limited knowledge on the predictive value of P wave signal-averaging, it is still not clinical medicine, and further research is needed before atrial signal-averaged ECG will be part of clinical testing.

Using a Cultural Intelligence Assessment to Teach Global Leadership

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whitaker, Brett L.; Greenleaf, Justin P.

2017-01-01

This paper describes the practice of students enrolled in an undergraduate Global Leadership course taking a Cultural Intelligence (CQ) assessment. The results of the assessment provided insight into the students' development across various dimensions of CQ, as well as their scores relative to their peers and global averages. This information was…

A graph-based watershed merging using fuzzy C-means and simulated annealing for image segmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vadiveloo, Mogana; Abdullah, Rosni; Rajeswari, Mandava

2015-12-01

In this paper, we have addressed the issue of over-segmented regions produced in watershed by merging the regions using global feature. The global feature information is obtained from clustering the image in its feature space using Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering. The over-segmented regions produced by performing watershed on the gradient of the image are then mapped to this global information in the feature space. Further to this, the global feature information is optimized using Simulated Annealing (SA). The optimal global feature information is used to derive the similarity criterion to merge the over-segmented watershed regions which are represented by the region adjacency graph (RAG). The proposed method has been tested on digital brain phantom simulated dataset to segment white matter (WM), gray matter (GM) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) soft tissues regions. The experiments showed that the proposed method performs statistically better, with average of 95.242% regions are merged, than the immersion watershed and average accuracy improvement of 8.850% in comparison with RAG-based immersion watershed merging using global and local features.

Climate vs. carbon dioxide controls on biomass burning: a model analysis of the glacial-interglacial contrast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvo, M. Martin; Prentice, I. C.; Harrison, S. P.

2014-02-01

Climate controls fire regimes through its influence on the amount and types of fuel present and their dryness; CO2 availability, in turn, constrains primary production by limiting photosynthetic activity in plants. However, although fuel accumulation depends on biomass production, and hence CO2 availability, the links between atmospheric CO2 and biomass burning are not well known. Here a fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model (the Land surface Processes and eXchanges model, LPX) is used to attribute glacial-interglacial changes in biomass burning to CO2 increase, which would be expected to increase primary production and therefore fuel loads even in the absence of climate change, vs. climate change effects. Four general circulation models provided Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate anomalies - that is, differences from the pre-industrial (PI) control climate - from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 2, allowing the construction of four scenarios for LGM climate. Modelled carbon fluxes in biomass burning were corrected for the model's observed biases in contemporary biome-average values. With LGM climate and low CO2 (185 ppm) effects included, the modelled global flux was 70 to 80% lower at the LGM than in PI time. LGM climate with pre-industrial CO2 (280 ppm) however yielded unrealistic results, with global and Northern Hemisphere biomass burning fluxes greater than in the pre-industrial climate. Using the PI CO2 concentration increased the modelled LGM biomass burning fluxes for all climate models and latitudinal bands to between four and ten times their values under LGM CO2 concentration. It is inferred that a substantial part of the increase in biomass burning after the LGM must be attributed to the effect of increasing CO2 concentration on productivity and fuel load. Today, by analogy, both rising CO2 and global warming must be considered as risk factors for increasing biomass burning. Both effects need to be included in models to project future fire risks.

Solar cycle length hypothesis appears to support the ipcc on global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laut, P.; Gundermann, J.

1998-12-01

Since the discovery of a striking correlation between 1-2-2-2-1 filtered solar cycle lengths and the 11-year running average of northern hemisphere land air temperatures, there have been widespread speculations as to whether these findings would rule out any significant contributions to global warming from the enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gases. The solar hypothesis (as we shall term this assumption) claims that solar activity causes a significant component of the global mean temperature to vary in phase opposite to the filtered solar cycle lengths. In an earlier article we have demonstrated that for data covering the period 1860-1980 the solar hypothesis does not rule out any significant contribution from man-made greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The present analysis goes a step further. We analyse the period 1579-1987 and find that the solar hypothesis-instead of contradicting-appears to support the assumption of a significant warming due to human activities. We have tentatively corrected the historical northern hemisphere land air temperature anomalies by removing the assumed effects of human activities. These are represented by northern hemisphere land air temperature anomalies calculated as the contributions from man-made greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols by using an upwelling diffusion-energy balance model similar to the model of [Wigley and Raper, 1993] employed in the Second Assessment Report of The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It turns out that the agreement of the filtered solar cycle lengths with the corrected temperature anomalies is substantially better than with the historical anomalies, with the mean square deviation reduced by 36% for a climate sensitivity of 2.5°C, the central value of the IPCC assessment, and by 43% for the best-fit value of 1.7°C. Therefore our findings support a total reversal of the common assumption that a verification of the solar hypothesis would challenge the IPCC assessment of man-made global warming.

The role of diet in phosphorus demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metson, Geneviève S.; Bennett, Elena M.; Elser, James J.

2012-12-01

Over the past 50 years, there have been major changes in human diets, including a global average increase in meat consumption and total calorie intake. We quantified how changes in annual per capita national average diets affected requirements for mined P between 1961 and 2007, starting with the per capita availability of a food crop or animal product and then determining the P needed to grow the product. The global per capita P footprint increased 38% over the 46 yr time period, but there was considerable variability among countries. Phosphorus footprints varied between 0.35 kg P capita-1 yr-1 (DPR Congo, 2007) and 7.64 kg P capita-1 yr-1 (Luxembourg, 2007). Temporal trends also differed among countries; for example, while China’s P footprint increased almost 400% between 1961 and 2007, the footprints of other countries, such as Canada, decreased. Meat consumption was the most important factor affecting P footprints; it accounted for 72% of the global average P footprint. Our results show that dietary shifts are an important component of the human amplification of the global P cycle. These dietary trends present an important challenge for sustainable P management.

Global Experiential and Didactic Education Opportunities at US Colleges and Schools of Pharmacy.

PubMed

Steeb, David R; Overman, Robert A; Sleath, Betsy L; Joyner, Pamela U

2016-02-25

To assess the characteristics of global experiential and didactic education offerings in the pharmacy curricula. A 2-stage web-based review of US colleges and schools of pharmacy identified country locations of international advanced pharmacy practice experiences (APPE), globally focused didactic courses, and whether these offerings were interprofessional. Schools were contacted to confirm their offerings and were asked about student participation and demand. Sixty-four percent of responding schools confirmed an international APPE offering in 67 different countries with an average graduating class participation of 6.1%. Forty-seven percent of responding schools confirmed a globally focused course offering with an average graduating class participation of 13.1%. Almost two thirds of international APPEs and a majority of courses were designated as interprofessional. Student demand did not outweigh supply for either. Colleges and schools of pharmacy in the United States are continuing to develop global education opportunities for students in the classroom and throughout the world.

Global Experiential and Didactic Education Opportunities at US Colleges and Schools of Pharmacy

PubMed Central

Overman, Robert A.; Sleath, Betsy L.; Joyner, Pamela U.

2016-01-01

Objective. To assess the characteristics of global experiential and didactic education offerings in the pharmacy curricula. Methods. A 2-stage web-based review of US colleges and schools of pharmacy identified country locations of international advanced pharmacy practice experiences (APPE), globally focused didactic courses, and whether these offerings were interprofessional. Schools were contacted to confirm their offerings and were asked about student participation and demand. Results. Sixty-four percent of responding schools confirmed an international APPE offering in 67 different countries with an average graduating class participation of 6.1%. Forty-seven percent of responding schools confirmed a globally focused course offering with an average graduating class participation of 13.1%. Almost two thirds of international APPEs and a majority of courses were designated as interprofessional. Student demand did not outweigh supply for either. Conclusion. Colleges and schools of pharmacy in the United States are continuing to develop global education opportunities for students in the classroom and throughout the world. PMID:26941433

Primary and secondary contributions to aerosol light scattering and absorption in Mexico City during the MILAGRO 2006 campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paredes-Miranda, G.; Arnott, W. P.; Jimenez, J. L.; Aiken, A. C.; Gaffney, J. S.; Marley, N. A.

2009-06-01

A photoacoustic spectrometer, a nephelometer, an aethalometer, and an aerosol mass spectrometer were used to measure at ground level real-time aerosol light absorption, scattering, and chemistry at an urban site located in North East Mexico City (Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo, Mexican Petroleum Institute, denoted by IMP), as part of the Megacity Impact on Regional and Global Environments field experiment, MILAGRO, in March 2006. Photoacoustic and reciprocal nephelometer measurements at 532 nm accomplished with a single instrument compare favorably with conventional measurements made with an aethalometer and a TSI nephelometer. The diurnally averaged single scattering albedo at 532 nm was found to vary from 0.60 to 0.85 with the peak value at midday and the minimum value at 07:00 a.m. local time, indicating that the Mexico City plume is likely to have a net warming effect on local climate. The peak value is associated with strong photochemical generation of secondary aerosol. It is estimated that the photochemical production of secondary aerosol (inorganic and organic) is approximately 75% of the aerosol mass concentration and light scattering in association with the peak single scattering albedo. A strong correlation of aerosol scattering at 532 nm and total aerosol mass concentration was found, and an average mass scattering efficiency factor of 3.8 m2/g was determined. Comparisons of photoacoustic and aethalometer light absorption with oxygenated organic aerosol concentration (OOA) indicate a very small systematic bias of the filter based measurement associated with OOA and the peak aerosol single scattering albedo.

Primary and secondary contributions to aerosol light scattering and absorption in Mexico City during the MILAGRO 2006 campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paredes-Miranda, G.; Arnott, W. P.; Jimenez, J. L.; Aiken, A. C.; Gaffney, J. S.; Marley, N. A.

2008-09-01

A photoacoustic spectrometer, a nephelometer, an aetholemeter, and an aerosol mass spectrometer were used to measure at ground level real-time aerosol light absorption, scattering, and chemistry at an urban site located in north east Mexico City (Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo, Mexican Petroleum Institute, denoted by IMP), as part of the Megacity Impact on Regional and Global Environments field experiment, MILAGRO, in March 2006. Photoacoustic and reciprocal nephelometer measurements at 532 nm accomplished with a single instrument compare favorably with conventional measurements made with an aethelometer and a TSI nephelometer. The diurnally averaged single scattering albedo at 532 nm was found to vary from 0.60 to 0.85 with the peak value at midday and the minimum value at 7 a.m. local time, indicating that the Mexico City plume is likely to have a net warming effect on local climate. The peak value is associated with strong photochemical generation of secondary aerosol. It is estimated that the same-day photochemical production of secondary aerosol (inorganic and organic) is approximately 40 percent of the aerosol mass concentration and light scattering in association with the peak single scattering albedo. A strong correlation of aerosol scattering at 532 nm and total aerosol mass concentration was found, and an average mass scattering efficiency factor of 3.8 m2/g was determined. Comparisons of photoacoustic and aethalometer light absorption with oxygenated organic aerosol concentration (OOA) indicate a very small systematic bias of the filter based measurement associated with OOA and the peak aerosol single scattering albedo.

Research trends on pathogenic Cryptococcus species in the last 20 years: a global analysis with focus on Brazil.

PubMed

Albuquerque, Priscila C; Rodrigues, Marcio L

2012-03-01

Recent data demonstrates that cryptococcosis caused by Cryptococcus neoformans or Cryptococcus gattii kills approximately 600,000 people per year in the world. In Brazil, cryptococcosis has recently been identified as the most fatal mycosis in AIDS patients. In this study, we aimed to map research into C. neoformans and C. gattii in the world, with a focus on the Brazilian contribution to this area. The parameters used for this analysis were based on publication records, including number of articles published, citation indices, journal impact factor and distribution of authorship in the last two decades. Our global analysis of publications demonstrated that, in the last 20 years, the USA was the country that produced the highest number of scientific articles in the Cryptococcus field, while Brazil occupied the third position. Brazilian productivity, however, showed a steady tendency to increase, in contrast to the USA and other countries. The average impact factor of journals at which articles authored by Brazilians were published was 2.58, which represented approximately half the value found for papers of American authorship. Studies authored by Brazilian scientists showed relatively low averages of citations per article, in comparison to papers published by researchers from the USA, France, Australia, The Netherlands and Germany, among others. This study demonstrates that the contribution of Brazilian scientists to the Cryptococcus field is continually growing, although papers produced in Brazil apparently have poor repercussion in comparison to those generated in developed countries.

Uncertainties on [Formula: see text] in the MMHT2014 global PDF analysis and implications for SM predictions.

PubMed

Harland-Lang, L A; Martin, A D; Motylinski, P; Thorne, R S

We investigate the uncertainty in the strong coupling [Formula: see text] when allowing it to be a free parameter in the recent MMHT global analyses of deep-inelastic and related hard scattering data that was undertaken to determine the parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the proton. The analysis uses the standard framework of leading twist fixed-order collinear factorisation in the [Formula: see text] scheme. We study the constraints on [Formula: see text] coming from individual data sets by repeating the NNLO and NLO fits spanning the range 0.108 to 0.128 in units of 0.001, making all PDFs sets available. The inclusion of the cross section for inclusive [Formula: see text] production allows us to explore the correlation between the mass [Formula: see text] of the top quark and [Formula: see text]. We find that the best-fit values are [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] at NLO and NNLO, respectively, with the central values changing to [Formula: see text] and 0.1178 when the world average of [Formula: see text] is used as a data point. We investigate the interplay between the uncertainties on [Formula: see text] and on the PDFs. In particular we calculate the cross sections for key processes at the LHC and show how the uncertainties from the PDFs and from [Formula: see text] can be provided independently and be combined.

Global synthesis of the temperature sensitivity of leaf litter breakdown in streams and rivers

DOE PAGES

Follstad Shah, Jennifer J.; Kominoski, John S.; Ardón, Marcelo; ...

2017-02-28

Streams and rivers are important conduits of terrestrially derived carbon (C) to atmospheric and marine reservoirs. Leaf litter breakdown rates are expected to increase as water temperatures rise in response to climate change. The magnitude of increase in breakdown rates is uncertain, given differences in litter quality and microbial and detritivore community responses to temperature, factors that can influence the apparent temperature sensitivity of breakdown and the relative proportion of C lost to the atmosphere vs. stored or transported downstream. We synthesized 1025 records of litter breakdown in streams and rivers to quantify its temperature sensitivity, as measured by themore » activation energy (Ea, in eV). Temperature sensitivity of litter breakdown varied among twelve plant genera for which Ea could be calculated. Higher values of Ea were correlated with lower-quality litter, but these correlations were influenced by a single, N-fixing genus (Alnus). Ea values converged when genera were classified into three breakdown rate categories, potentially due to continual water availability in streams and rivers modulating the influence of leaf chemistry on breakdown. Across all data representing 85 plant genera, the Ea was 0.34 ± 0.04 eV, or approximately half the value (0.65 eV) predicted by metabolic theory. Our results indicate that average breakdown rates may increase by 5–21% with a 1–4 °C rise in water temperature, rather than a 10–45% increase expected, according to metabolic theory. Differential warming of tropical and temperate biomes could result in a similar proportional increase in breakdown rates, despite variation in Ea values for these regions (0.75 ± 0.13 eV and 0.27 ± 0.05 eV, respectively). The relative proportions of gaseous C loss and organic matter transport downstream should not change with rising temperature given that Ea values for breakdown mediated by microbes alone and microbes plus detritivores were similar at the global scale.« less

Global synthesis of the temperature sensitivity of leaf litter breakdown in streams and rivers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Follstad Shah, Jennifer J.; Kominoski, John S.; Ardón, Marcelo

Streams and rivers are important conduits of terrestrially derived carbon (C) to atmospheric and marine reservoirs. Leaf litter breakdown rates are expected to increase as water temperatures rise in response to climate change. The magnitude of increase in breakdown rates is uncertain, given differences in litter quality and microbial and detritivore community responses to temperature, factors that can influence the apparent temperature sensitivity of breakdown and the relative proportion of C lost to the atmosphere vs. stored or transported downstream. We synthesized 1025 records of litter breakdown in streams and rivers to quantify its temperature sensitivity, as measured by themore » activation energy (Ea, in eV). Temperature sensitivity of litter breakdown varied among twelve plant genera for which Ea could be calculated. Higher values of Ea were correlated with lower-quality litter, but these correlations were influenced by a single, N-fixing genus (Alnus). Ea values converged when genera were classified into three breakdown rate categories, potentially due to continual water availability in streams and rivers modulating the influence of leaf chemistry on breakdown. Across all data representing 85 plant genera, the Ea was 0.34 ± 0.04 eV, or approximately half the value (0.65 eV) predicted by metabolic theory. Our results indicate that average breakdown rates may increase by 5–21% with a 1–4 °C rise in water temperature, rather than a 10–45% increase expected, according to metabolic theory. Differential warming of tropical and temperate biomes could result in a similar proportional increase in breakdown rates, despite variation in Ea values for these regions (0.75 ± 0.13 eV and 0.27 ± 0.05 eV, respectively). The relative proportions of gaseous C loss and organic matter transport downstream should not change with rising temperature given that Ea values for breakdown mediated by microbes alone and microbes plus detritivores were similar at the global scale.« less

Global Distribution of Pyrogenic Carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reisser, Moritz; Abiven, Samuel; Schmidt, Michael W. I.

2016-04-01

Pyrogenic Carbon (PyC) is ubiquitous in the environment and represents presumably one of the most stable compounds of the total organic carbon. Due to its persistence in the soil, it might play an important role in the global carbon cycle. In order to model future CO2 emissions from soils it is thus crucial to know where and how much of PyC exists on a global scale. Yet, only rough estimates for global PyC stocks in soils could be made, and even less is known about the distribution across ecosystems. Therefore we propose here literature analysis of data on PyC concentrations and stocks worldwide. We extracted PyC values in soils from the literature (n = 600) and analysed the percentage of PyC in the soil organic carbon (SOC) as a function of climate (temperature, precipitation), soil parameters (pH, clay content), fire characteristics (fire frequency and fire regime) and land use. Overall, the average contribution of PyC to SOC was 13 %, ranging from 0.1 % up to 60 %. We observed that the PyC content was significantly higher with high clay content, higher pH, and in cultivated land as compared to forest and grassland. We did not observe any relationships between fire activity, frequency or intensity and PyC % at a global scale. When the fire regime was monitored on site (only 12 % of the data we collected), we observed higher PyC concentrations with higher fire frequencies. We hypothesise that the resolution of global fire datasets is neither temporally nor spatially high enough to explain the very local fire history of the soil samples. Data points were not homogeneously distributed on the globe, but rather aggregated in places like Central Europe, the Russian Steppe or North America. Therefore, a global interpolation is not directly possible. We modelled PyC concentrations, based on the five most significant parameters, which were clay content, pH, mean annual temperature and precipitation as well as land use. We then predicted worldwide PyC using global datasets existing for these five variables. We present a global map of PyC concentrations as well as it stocks. In arid ecosystems, where SOC is generally low, stocks of PyC are also low, even though concentrations can be very high. On the other hand, stocks are mostly very large in temperate and boreal ecosystems, even if concentrations are rather low, because total SOC stocks are very high there. Integrating our modelled data, we result in a total global stock of about 230 Pg PyC, corresponding to about 10 % of the total soil organic carbon stock. This value lies well in range with current rule-of-thump estimates of previous studies.

The water footprint of humanity

PubMed Central

Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Mekonnen, Mesfin M.

2012-01-01

This study quantifies and maps the water footprint (WF) of humanity at a high spatial resolution. It reports on consumptive use of rainwater (green WF) and ground and surface water (blue WF) and volumes of water polluted (gray WF). Water footprints are estimated per nation from both a production and consumption perspective. International virtual water flows are estimated based on trade in agricultural and industrial commodities. The global annual average WF in the period 1996–2005 was 9,087 Gm3/y (74% green, 11% blue, 15% gray). Agricultural production contributes 92%. About one-fifth of the global WF relates to production for export. The total volume of international virtual water flows related to trade in agricultural and industrial products was 2,320 Gm3/y (68% green, 13% blue, 19% gray). The WF of the global average consumer was 1,385 m3/y. The average consumer in the United States has a WF of 2,842 m3/y, whereas the average citizens in China and India have WFs of 1,071 and 1,089 m3/y, respectively. Consumption of cereal products gives the largest contribution to the WF of the average consumer (27%), followed by meat (22%) and milk products (7%). The volume and pattern of consumption and the WF per ton of product of the products consumed are the main factors determining the WF of a consumer. The study illustrates the global dimension of water consumption and pollution by showing that several countries heavily rely on foreign water resources and that many countries have significant impacts on water consumption and pollution elsewhere. PMID:22331890

The effects of spatial heterogeneity and subsurface lateral transfer on evapotranspiration estimates in large scale Earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouholahnejad, E.; Fan, Y.; Kirchner, J. W.; Miralles, D. G.

2017-12-01

Most Earth system models (ESM) average over considerable sub-grid heterogeneity in land surface properties, and overlook subsurface lateral flow. This could potentially bias evapotranspiration (ET) estimates and has implications for future temperature predictions, since overestimations in ET imply greater latent heat fluxes and potential underestimation of dry and warm conditions in the context of climate change. Here we quantify the bias in evaporation estimates that may arise from the fact that ESMs average over considerable heterogeneity in surface properties, and also neglect lateral transfer of water across the heterogeneous landscapes at global scale. We use a Budyko framework to express ET as a function of P and PET to derive simple sub-grid closure relations that quantify how spatial heterogeneity and lateral transfer could affect average ET as seen from the atmosphere. We show that averaging over sub-grid heterogeneity in P and PET, as typical Earth system models do, leads to overestimation of average ET. Our analysis at global scale shows that the effects of sub-grid heterogeneity will be most pronounced in steep mountainous areas where the topographic gradient is high and where P is inversely correlated with PET across the landscape. In addition, we use the Total Water Storage (TWS) anomaly estimates from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) remote sensing product and assimilate it into the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) to correct for existing free drainage lower boundary condition in GLEAM and quantify whether, and how much, accounting for changes in terrestrial storage can improve the simulation of soil moisture and regional ET fluxes at global scale.

Effects of foliage clumping on the estimation of global terrestrial gross primary productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jing M.; Mo, Gang; Pisek, Jan; Liu, Jane; Deng, Feng; Ishizawa, Misa; Chan, Douglas

2012-03-01

Sunlit and shaded leaf separation proposed by Norman (1982) is an effective way to upscale from leaf to canopy in modeling vegetation photosynthesis. The Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) makes use of this methodology, and has been shown to be reliable in modeling the gross primary productivity (GPP) derived from CO2flux and tree ring measurements. In this study, we use BEPS to investigate the effect of canopy architecture on the global distribution of GPP. For this purpose, we use not only leaf area index (LAI) but also the first ever global map of the foliage clumping index derived from the multiangle satellite sensor POLDER at 6 km resolution. The clumping index, which characterizes the degree of the deviation of 3-dimensional leaf spatial distributions from the random case, is used to separate sunlit and shaded LAI values for a given LAI. Our model results show that global GPP in 2003 was 132 ± 22 Pg C. Relative to this baseline case, our results also show: (1) global GPP is overestimated by 12% when accurate LAI is available but clumping is ignored, and (2) global GPP is underestimated by 9% when the effective LAI is available and clumping is ignored. The clumping effects in both cases are statistically significant (p < 0.001). The effective LAI is often derived from remote sensing by inverting the measured canopy gap fraction to LAI without considering the clumping. Global GPP would therefore be generally underestimated when remotely sensed LAI (actually effective LAI by our definition) is used. This is due to the underestimation of the shaded LAI and therefore the contribution of shaded leaves to GPP. We found that shaded leaves contribute 50%, 38%, 37%, 39%, 26%, 29% and 21% to the total GPP for broadleaf evergreen forest, broadleaf deciduous forest, evergreen conifer forest, deciduous conifer forest, shrub, C4 vegetation, and other vegetation, respectively. The global average of this ratio is 35%.

Intercontinental height datum connection with GOCE and GPS-levelling data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruber, T.; Gerlach, C.; Haagmans, R.

2012-12-01

In this study an attempt is made to establish height system datum connections based upon a gravity field and steady-state ocean circulation explorer (GOCE) gravity field model and a set of global positioning system (GPS) and levelling data. The procedure applied in principle is straightforward. First local geoid heights are obtained point wise from GPS and levelling data. Then the mean of these geoid heights is computed for regions nominally referring to the same height datum. Subsequently, these local mean geoid heights are compared with a mean global geoid from GOCE for the same region. This way one can identify an offset of the local to the global geoid per region. This procedure is applied to a number of regions distributed worldwide. Results show that the vertical datum offset estimates strongly depend on the nature of the omission error, i.e. the signal not represented in the GOCE model. For a smooth gravity field the commission error of GOCE, the quality of the GPS and levelling data and the averaging control the accuracy of the vertical datum offset estimates. In case the omission error does not cancel out in the mean value computation, because of a sub-optimal point distribution or a characteristic behaviour of the omitted part of the geoid signal, one needs to estimate a correction for the omission error from other sources. For areas with dense and high quality ground observations the EGM2008 global model is a good choice to estimate the omission error correction in theses cases. Relative intercontinental height datum offsets are estimated by applying this procedure between the United State of America (USA), Australia and Germany. These are compared to historical values provided in the literature and computed with the same procedure. The results obtained in this study agree on a level of 10 cm to the historical results. The changes mainly can be attributed to the new global geoid information from GOCE, rather than to the ellipsoidal heights or the levelled heights. These historical levelling data are still in use in many countries. This conclusion is supported by other results on the validation of the GOCE models.

A Possible Strategy for the Use of Solar Climate Engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ackerman, T. P.; Russotto, R. D.; Kravitz, B.

2016-12-01

The Paris accord signals an international effort to hold global temperature change below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, raising the question of what role solar climate engineering (SCE) might play in meeting this objective. However, avoiding continuing, long-term application of SCE with an ever increasing magnitude requires an "exit strategy", i. e., a plan to phase out SCE by removing stabilizing and removing CO2. Here we present results from a series of climate model runs that combine both CO2 and SCE transient forcings over a 200-year period (2000 to 2200). Our results confirm past results that maintaining both global surface air temperature (TA) and precipitation (P) at baseline levels is not feasible. They also demonstrate a quasi-linear relationship between changes in SCE and changes in P. Zonally-averaged changes in TA show, as expected, polar amplification of warming, but that enhancement scales uniformly with the change in global TA. We draw several conclusions from our results: (1) There are plausible scenarios in which SCE can be part of an integrated strategy to meet the temperature goals of the Paris accord. (2) Applying transient forcings can be used to maintain some, but not all, globally-averaged climate system variables (such as TA or P) at a prescribed baseline level. That globally-averaged stability, however, is achieved by averaging over changes in spatial distributions. These spatial changes create difficult issues regarding prediction of regional climate changes due to SCE and potential impacts on regional societies. (3) Our inability to predict interannual climate variability on the annual-to-decadal time scale suggests that it may take a decade or more to provide reliable detection and attribution of the global climate impacts of SCE following its inception (the so-called time of emergence). Furthermore, it will take much longer to determine regional impacts.

Load Balancing Using Time Series Analysis for Soft Real Time Systems with Statistically Periodic Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hailperin, Max

1993-01-01

This thesis provides design and analysis of techniques for global load balancing on ensemble architectures running soft-real-time object-oriented applications with statistically periodic loads. It focuses on estimating the instantaneous average load over all the processing elements. The major contribution is the use of explicit stochastic process models for both the loading and the averaging itself. These models are exploited via statistical time-series analysis and Bayesian inference to provide improved average load estimates, and thus to facilitate global load balancing. This thesis explains the distributed algorithms used and provides some optimality results. It also describes the algorithms' implementation and gives performance results from simulation. These results show that our techniques allow more accurate estimation of the global system load ing, resulting in fewer object migration than local methods. Our method is shown to provide superior performance, relative not only to static load-balancing schemes but also to many adaptive methods.

Atmospheric emissions and trends of nitrous oxide deduced from 10 years of ALE-GAGE data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prinn, R.; Cunnold, D.; Alyea, F.; Rasmussen, R.; Simmonds, P.

1990-01-01

Long-term measurements of nitrous oxide (N2O) obtained during the Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment (ALE) and the Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (GAGE) for a period from 1978 to 1988 are presented and interpreted. It is observed that the average concentration in the Northern Hemisphere is 0.75 +/- 0.16 ppbv higher than in the Southern Hemisphere and that the global average linear trend in N2O lies in the range from 0.25 to 0.31 percent/year. The measured trends and latitudinal distributions are shown to be consistent with the hypothesis that stratospheric photodissociation is the major atmospheric sink for N2O, while the cause of the N2O trend is suggested to be a combination of a growing tropical source and a growing Northern mid-latitude source. A 10-year average global N2O emission rate of (20.5 +/- 2.4) x 10 to the 12th g N2O/year is deduced from the ALE/GAGE data.

Quantifying immediate radiative forcing by black carbon and organic matter with the Specific Forcing Pulse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond, T. C.; Zarzycki, C.; Flanner, M. G.; Koch, D. M.

2011-02-01

Climatic effects of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) differ from those of long-lived greenhouse gases, because they occur rapidly after emission and because they depend upon the region of emission. The distinctive temporal and spatial nature of these impacts is not captured by measures that rely on global averages or long time integrations. Here, we propose a simple measure, the Specific Forcing Pulse (SFP), to quantify climate warming or cooling by these pollutants, where we define "immediate" as occurring primarily within the first year after emission. SFP is the amount of energy added to or removed from a receptor region in the Earth-atmosphere system by a chemical species, per mass of emission in a source region. We limit the application of SFP to species that remain in the atmosphere for less than one year. Metrics used in policy discussions, such as total forcing or global warming potential, are easily derived from SFP. However, SFP conveys purely physical information without incurring the policy implications of choosing a time horizon for the global warming potential. Using one model (Community Atmosphere Model, or CAM), we calculate values of SFP for black carbon (BC) and organic matter (OM) emitted from 23 source-region combinations. Global SFP for both atmosphere and cryosphere impacts is divided among receptor latitudes. SFP is usually greater for open-burning emissions than for energy-related (fossil-fuel and biofuel) emissions because of the timing of emission. Global SFP for BC varies by about 45% for energy-related emissions from different regions. This variation would be larger except for compensating effects. When emitted aerosol has larger cryosphere forcing, it often has lower atmosphere forcing because of less deep convection and a shorter atmospheric lifetime. A single model result is insufficient to capture uncertainty. We develop a best estimate and uncertainties for SFP by combining forcing results from 12 additional models. We outline a framework for combining a large number of simple models with a smaller number of enhanced models that have greater complexity. Adjustments for black carbon internal mixing and for regional variability are discussed. Emitting regions with more deep convection have greater model diversity. Our best estimate of global-mean SFP is +1.03 ± 0.52 GJ g-1 for direct atmosphere forcing of black carbon, +1.15 ± 0.53 GJ g-1 for black carbon including direct and cryosphere forcing, and -0.064 (-0.02, -0.13) GJ g-1 for organic matter. These values depend on the region and timing of emission. The lowest OM:BC mass ratio required to produce a neutral effect on top-of-atmosphere direct forcing is 15:1 for any region. Any lower ratio results in positive direct forcing. However, important processes, particularly cloud changes that tend toward cooling, have not been included here. Global-average SFP for energy-related emissions can be converted to a 100-year GWP of about 740 ± 370 for BC without snow forcing, and 830 ± 440 with snow forcing. 100-year GWP for OM is -46 (-18, -92). Best estimates of atmospheric radiative impact (without snow forcing) by black and organic matter are +0.47 ± 0.26 W m-2 and -0.17 (-0.07, -0.35) W m-2 for BC and OM, respectively, assuming total emission rates of 7.4 and 45 Tg yr-1. Anthropogenic forcing is +0.40 ± 0.18 W m-2 and -0.13 (-0.05, -0.25) W m-2 for BC and OM, respectively, assuming anthropogenic emission rates of 6.3 and 32.6 Tg yr-1. Black carbon forcing is only 18% higher than that given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), although the value presented here includes enhanced absorption due to internal mixing.