Science.gov

Sample records for global change effects

  1. Ecological effects of global change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menzel, A.

    2010-03-01

    Mankind actually puts manifolds loads on our earth including stratospheric ozone depletion, rising freshwater use, changes of land cover and land use. For several of these threats, critical loads and thresholds may be already exceeded, e.g. nitrogen input, climate change and biodiversity loss (Röckström et al. 2009). The working group on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability of the last IPCC report (AR4, 2007) concluded that anthropogenic warming over the last three decades has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems, thus global fingerprint of anthropogenic climate change was detectable on all continents and almost all ocean areas (Rosenzweig et al. 2007, 2008). 90% of the significant temperature related changes in 29000 records analysed were consistent with climate warming, e.g. in warming climates earlier spring events, distributional shifts pole wards and to higher altitudes, or community changes with reduced cold adapted species were observed. These impacts, already visible and only related to less than 1°C global warming, allow a limited glance at future changes and pressures on our ecosystems, as the rate of warming may accelerate and will be linked to stronger and more frequent extreme events. Vegetation is an important component of the climate system, part of biogeochemical cycles and the lower boundary of GCMs characterised by certain albedo and roughness. Thus, climate change impacts on vegetation exert feedbacks. The most striking and challenging problems in analysing climate change impacts on ecosystems are related to cases where one would expect major changes due to warming however there is reduced, limited or no reaction in the observed systems. This feature is known as divergence problem in tree ring research, called resilience in ecosystem dynamics or might be simply a time-lag or environmental monitoring problem. However, there are various other pressures by global change, e.g. land use change or pollution, leading

  2. Climate Effects of Global Land Cover Change

    SciTech Connect

    Gibbard, S G; Caldeira, K; Bala, G; Phillips, T; Wickett, M

    2005-08-24

    There are two competing effects of global land cover change on climate: an albedo effect which leads to heating when changing from grass/croplands to forest, and an evapotranspiration effect which tends to produce cooling. It is not clear which effect would dominate in a global land cover change scenario. We have performed coupled land/ocean/atmosphere simulations of global land cover change using the NCAR CAM3 atmospheric general circulation model. We find that replacement of current vegetation by trees on a global basis would lead to a global annual mean warming of 1.6 C, nearly 75% of the warming produced under a doubled CO{sub 2} concentration, while global replacement by grasslands would result in a cooling of 0.4 C. These results suggest that more research is necessary before forest carbon storage should be deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming. In particular, high latitude forests probably have a net warming effect on the Earth's climate.

  3. GLOBAL CHANGE EFFECTS ON CORAL REEF CONDITION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Fisher, W., W. Davis, J. Campbell, L. Courtney, P. Harris, B. Hemmer, M. Parsons, B. Quarles and D. Santavy. In press. Global Change Effects on Coral Reef Condition (Abstract). To be presented at the EPA Science Forum: Healthy Communities and Ecosystems, 1-3 June 2004, Washington...

  4. The Effects of Global Change upon United States Air Quality

    EPA Science Inventory

    To understand more fully the effects of global changes on ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in the US, we conducted a comprehensive modeling effort to evaluate explicitly the effects of change...

  5. Global Change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    ,

    1993-01-01

    Global change is a relatively new area of scientific study using research from many disciplines to determine how Earth systems change, and to assess the influence of human activity on these changes. This teaching packet consists of a poster and three activity sheets. In teaching these activities four themes are important: time, change, cycles, and Earth as home.

  6. Effects of three global change drivers on terrestrial C:N:P stoichiometry: a global synthesis.

    PubMed

    Yue, Kai; Fornara, Dario A; Yang, Wanqin; Peng, Yan; Li, Zhijie; Wu, Fuzhong; Peng, Changhui

    2016-11-17

    Over the last few decades, there has been an increasing number of controlled-manipulative experiments to investigate how plants and soils might respond to global change. These experiments typically examined the effects of each of three global change drivers [i.e., nitrogen (N) deposition, warming, and elevated CO2 ] on primary productivity and on the biogeochemistry of carbon (C), N, and phosphorus (P) across different terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we capitalize on this large amount of information by performing a comprehensive meta-analysis (>2000 case studies worldwide) to address how C:N:P stoichiometry of plants, soils, and soil microbial biomass might respond to individual vs. combined effects of the three global change drivers. Our results show that (i) individual effects of N addition and elevated CO2 on C:N:P stoichiometry are stronger than warming, (ii) combined effects of pairs of global change drivers (e.g., N addition + elevated CO2 , warming + elevated CO2 ) on C:N:P stoichiometry were generally weaker than the individual effects of each of these drivers, (iii) additive interactions (i.e., when combined effects are equal to or not significantly different from the sum of individual effects) were more common than synergistic or antagonistic interactions, (iv) C:N:P stoichiometry of soil and soil microbial biomass shows high homeostasis under global change manipulations, and (v) C:N:P responses to global change are strongly affected by ecosystem type, local climate, and experimental conditions. Our study is one of the first to compare individual vs. combined effects of the three global change drivers on terrestrial C:N:P ratios using a large set of data. To further improve our understanding of how ecosystems might respond to future global change, long-term ecosystem-scale studies testing multifactor effects on plants and soils are urgently required across different world regions.

  7. Hormonally mediated maternal effects, individual strategy and global change

    PubMed Central

    Meylan, Sandrine; Miles, Donald B.; Clobert, Jean

    2012-01-01

    A challenge to ecologists and evolutionary biologists is predicting organismal responses to the anticipated changes to global ecosystems through climate change. Most evidence suggests that short-term global change may involve increasing occurrences of extreme events, therefore the immediate response of individuals will be determined by physiological capacities and life-history adaptations to cope with extreme environmental conditions. Here, we consider the role of hormones and maternal effects in determining the persistence of species in altered environments. Hormones, specifically steroids, are critical for patterning the behaviour and morphology of parents and their offspring. Hence, steroids have a pervasive influence on multiple aspects of the offspring phenotype over its lifespan. Stress hormones, e.g. glucocorticoids, modulate and perturb phenotypes both early in development and later into adulthood. Females exposed to abiotic stressors during reproduction may alter the phenotypes by manipulation of hormones to the embryos. Thus, hormone-mediated maternal effects, which generate phenotypic plasticity, may be one avenue for coping with global change. Variation in exposure to hormones during development influences both the propensity to disperse, which alters metapopulation dynamics, and population dynamics, by affecting either recruitment to the population or subsequent life-history characteristics of the offspring. We suggest that hormones may be an informative index to the potential for populations to adapt to changing environments. PMID:22566673

  8. Global change effects on plant chemical defenses against insect herbivores.

    PubMed

    Bidart-Bouzat, M Gabriela; Imeh-Nathaniel, Adebobola

    2008-11-01

    This review focuses on individual effects of major global change factors, such as elevated CO2, O3, UV light and temperature, on plant secondary chemistry. These secondary metabolites are well-known for their role in plant defense against insect herbivory. Global change effects on secondary chemicals appear to be plant species-specific and dependent on the chemical type. Even though plant chemical responses induced by these factors are highly variable, there seems to be some specificity in the response to different environmental stressors. For example, even though the production of phenolic compounds is enhanced by both elevated CO2 and UV light levels, the latter appears to primarily increase the concentrations of flavonoids. Likewise, specific phenolic metabolites seem to be induced by O3 but not by other factors, and an increase in volatile organic compounds has been particularly detected under elevated temperature. More information is needed regarding how global change factors influence inducibility of plant chemical defenses as well as how their indirect and direct effects impact insect performance and behavior, herbivory rates and pathogen attack. This knowledge is crucial to better understand how plants and their associated natural enemies will be affected in future changing environments.

  9. The effects of global change upon United States air quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez-Abraham, R.; Chung, S. H.; Avise, J.; Lamb, B.; Salathé, E. P., Jr.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D.; Guenther, A.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Zhang, Y.; Streets, D. G.

    2015-11-01

    To understand more fully the effects of global changes on ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in the United States (US), we conducted a comprehensive modeling effort to evaluate explicitly the effects of changes in climate, biogenic emissions, land use and global/regional anthropogenic emissions on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations and composition. Results from the ECHAM5 global climate model driven with the A1B emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to provide regional meteorological fields. We developed air quality simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) chemical transport model for two nested domains with 220 and 36 km horizontal grid cell resolution for a semi-hemispheric domain and a continental United States (US) domain, respectively. The semi-hemispheric domain was used to evaluate the impact of projected global emissions changes on US air quality. WRF meteorological fields were used to calculate current (2000s) and future (2050s) biogenic emissions using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). For the semi-hemispheric domain CMAQ simulations, present-day global emissions inventories were used and projected to the 2050s based on the IPCC A1B scenario. Regional anthropogenic emissions were obtained from the US Environmental Protection Agency National Emission Inventory 2002 (EPA NEI2002) and projected to the future using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model assuming a business as usual scenario that extends current decade emission regulations through 2050. Our results suggest that daily maximum 8 h average ozone (DM8O) concentrations will increase in a range between 2 to 12 parts per billion (ppb) across most of the continental US. The highest increase occurs in the South, Central and Midwest regions of the US due to

  10. Global climate change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levine, Joel S.

    1991-01-01

    Present processes of global climate change are reviewed. The processes determining global temperature are briefly described and the concept of effective temperature is elucidated. The greenhouse effect is examined, including the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases.

  11. [Effects of global change on soil fauna diversity: A review].

    PubMed

    Wu, Ting-Juan

    2013-02-01

    Terrestrial ecosystem consists of aboveground and belowground components, whose interaction affects the ecosystem processes and functions. Soil fauna plays an important role in biogeochemical cycles. With the recognizing of the significance of soil fauna in ecosystem processes, increasing evidences demonstrated that global change has profound effects on soil faunima diversity. The alternation of land use type, the increasing temperature, and the changes in precipitation pattern can directly affect soil fauna diversity, while the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition can indirectly affect the soil fauna diversity by altering plant community composition, diversity, and nutrient contents. The interactions of different environmental factors can co-affect the soil fauna diversity. To understand the effects of different driving factors on soil fauna diversity under the background of climate change would facilitate us better predicting how the soil fauna diversity and related ecological processes changed in the future.

  12. The effects of global change upon United States air quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez-Abraham, R.; Avise, J.; Chung, S. H.; Lamb, B.; Salathé, E. P., Jr.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D.; Guenther, A.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Zhang, Y.; Streets, D. G.

    2014-12-01

    To understand more fully the effects of global changes on ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in the US, we conducted a comprehensive modeling effort to evaluate explicitly the effects of changes in climate, biogenic emissions, land use, and global/regional anthropogenic emissions on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations and composition. Results from the ECHAM5 global climate model driven with the A1B emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to provide regional meteorological fields. We developed air quality simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) chemical transport model for two nested domains with 220 and 36 km horizontal grid cell resolution for a semi-hemispheric domain and a continental United States (US) domain, respectively. The semi-hemispheric domain was used to evaluate the impact of projected Asian emissions changes on US air quality. WRF meteorological fields were used to calculate current (2000s) and future (2050s) biogenic emissions using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). For the semi-hemispheric domain CMAQ simulations, present-day global emissions inventories were used and projected to the 2050s based on the IPCC A1B scenario. Regional anthropogenic emissions were obtained from the US Environmental Protection Agency National Emission Inventory 2002 (EPA NEI2002) and projected to the future using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model assuming a business as usual scenario that extends current decade emission regulations through 2050. Our results suggest that daily maximum 8 h average ozone (DM8O) concentrations will increase in a range between 2 to 12 ppb across most of the continental US, with the highest increase in the South, Central, and Midwest regions of the US, due to increases in temperature, enhanced

  13. Countermeasures for mitigating the effects of global environment changes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jenkins, Lyle M.

    1991-01-01

    Environmental countermeasures for preventing the negative effects of global climate change and ozone depletion are discussed with special emphasis on the possibilities of space-based actions. Among the programs addressed are the Mission to Planet Earth, the Solar Power Satellite (and linkage to the Space Exploration Initiative), and proposed projects such as a lunar-based power generator that utilizes He-3 as a fusion fuel when combined with deuterium. The concept of regional working groups is proposed for initiating the programs for effective countermeasures.

  14. Global versus local change effects on a large European river.

    PubMed

    Floury, M; Delattre, C; Ormerod, S J; Souchon, Y

    2012-12-15

    Water temperature and discharge are fundamental to lotic ecosystem function, and both are strongly affected by climate. In large river catchments, however, climatic effects might be difficult to discern from background variability and other cumulative sources of anthropogenic change arising from local land and water management. Here, we use trend analysis and generalised linear modelling on the Loire, the longest river in France to test the hypotheses that i) long-term trends in discharge and river temperature have arisen from climate change and ii) climatic effects on water quality have not been overridden by local effects. Over 32 years (1977-2008), discharge in the Middle Loire fell by about 100 m³/s while water temperature increased by 1.2 °C with greatest effects during the warm period (May-August). Although increasing air temperature explained 80% of variations in water temperature, basin-wide precipitation showed no long-term trend and accounted for only 18% of inter-annual fluctuations in flow. We suggest that trends in abstraction coupled with a potential increase in evapo-transpiration at the catchment scale could be responsible for the majority of the long-term discharge trend. Discharge and water temperature explained only 20% of long-term variations in major water quality variables (conductivity, dissolved oxygen, pH, suspended matter, biochemical oxygen demand, nitrate, phosphate and chlorophyll-a), with phosphate and chlorophyll declining contrary to expectations from global change probably as a consequence of improved wastewater treatment. These data partially support our first hypothesis in revealing how warming in the Loire has been consistent with recent atmospheric warming. However, local management has had larger effects on discharge and water quality in ways that could respectively exacerbate (abstraction) or ameliorate (reduced point-source pollution) warming effects. As one of the first case-studies of its kind, this multi-parametric study

  15. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE ON CORAL REEF ECOSYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Corals and coral reefs of the Caribbean and through the world are deteriorating at an accelerated rate. Several stressors are believed to contrbute to this decline, including global changes in atmospheric gases and land use patterns. In particular, warmer water temperatures and...

  16. USGS global change research

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    ,

    1995-01-01

    The Earth's global environment--its interrelated climate, land, oceans, fresh water, atmospheric and ecological systems-has changed continually throughout Earth history. Human activities are having ever-increasing effects on these systems. Sustaining our environment as population and demands for resources increase requires a sound understanding of the causes and cycles of natural change and the effects of human activities on the Earth's environmental systems. The U.S. Global Change Research Program was authorized by Congress in 1989 to provide the scientific understanding necessary to develop national and international policies concerning global environmental issues, particularly global climate change. The program addresses questions such as: what factors determine global climate; have humans already begun to change the global climate; will the climate of the future be very different; what will be the effects of climate change; and how much confidence do we have in our predictions? Through understanding, we can improve our capability to predict change, reduce the adverse effects of human activities, and plan strategies for adapting to natural and human-induced environmental change.

  17. Are conservation organizations configured for effective adaptation to global change?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Armsworth, Paul R.; Larson, Eric R.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Sax, Dov F.; Simonin, Paul W.; Blossey, Bernd; Green, Nancy; Lester, Liza; Klein, Mary L.; Ricketts, Taylor H.; Runge, Michael C.; Shaw, M. Rebecca

    2015-01-01

    Conservation organizations must adapt to respond to the ecological impacts of global change. Numerous changes to conservation actions (eg facilitated ecological transitions, managed relocations, or increased corridor development) have been recommended, but some institutional restructuring within organizations may also be needed. Here we discuss the capacity of conservation organizations to adapt to changing environmental conditions, focusing primarily on public agencies and nonprofits active in land protection and management in the US. After first reviewing how these organizations anticipate and detect impacts affecting target species and ecosystems, we then discuss whether they are sufficiently flexible to prepare and respond by reallocating funding, staff, or other resources. We raise new hypotheses about how the configuration of different organizations enables them to protect particular conservation targets and manage for particular biophysical changes that require coordinated management actions over different spatial and temporal scales. Finally, we provide a discussion resource to help conservation organizations assess their capacity to adapt.

  18. If You Change Yourself, the World Changes: The Effect of Exhibition on Preservice Science Teachers' Views about Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aksüt, Pelin; Dogan, Nihal; Bahar, Mehmet

    2016-01-01

    Although learning can occur in many environments e.g. science museum or zoo, some studies reported that teachers are prone to avoid outdoor activities since they lack of field trip training. For that reason; this study aims to explore the effect of the exhibition on preservice science teachers' views about global climate change (GCC) as well as…

  19. Global Climate Change: Federal Research on Possible Human Health Effects

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-02-10

    conditioning systems.”20 A recent rise in one measure of poverty in the United States is argued by some to suggest that there may be more poor ...conclusions are common to several studies on possible health effects of climate change: the infirm, the elderly, and the poor may be disproportionately...health, particularly in lower income populations, predominantly within tropical/subtropical countries.”3 For more detailed discussion, see CRS Issue

  20. Will Global Change Effect Primary Productivity in Coastal Ecosystems?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rothschild, Lynn J.; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

    1997-01-01

    Algae are the base of coastal food webs because they provide the source of organic carbon for the remaining members of the community. Thus, the rate that they produce organic carbon to a large extent controls the productivity of the entire ecosystem. Factors that control algal productivity range from the physical (e.g., temperature, light), chemical (e.g., nutrient levels) to the biological (e.g., grazing). Currently, levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide surficial fluxes of ultraviolet radiation are rising. Both of these environmental variables can have a profound effect on algal productivity. Atmospheric carbon dioxide may increase surficial levels of dissolved inorganic carbon. Our laboratory and field studies of algal mats and phytoplankton cultures under ambient and elevated levels of pCO2 show that elevated levels of inorganic carbon can cause an increase in photosynthetic rates. In some cases, this increase will cause an increase in phytoplankton numbers. There may be an increase in the excretion of fixed carbon, which in turn may enhance bacterial productivity. Alternatively, in analogy with studies on the effect of elevated pCO2 on plants, the phytoplankton could change their carbon to nitrogen ratios, which will effect the feeding of the planktonic grazers. The seasonal depletion of stratospheric ozone has resulted in elevated fluxes of UVB radiation superimposed on the normal seasonal variation. Present surface UV fluxes have a significant impact on phytoplankton physiology, including the inhibition of the light and dark reactions of photosynthesis, inhibition of nitrogenase activity, inhibition of heterocyst formation, reduction in motility, increased synthesis of the UV-screening pigment scytonemin, and mutation. After reviewing these issues, recent work in our lab on measuring the effect of UV radiation on phytoplankton in the San Francisco Bay Estuary will be presented.

  1. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #7: ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF OZONE DEPLETION

    EPA Science Inventory

    This edition focuses on a recent UNEP report entitled, "Environmental Effects of Ozone Depletion: 1998 Assessment." Dr. Richard Zepp (ORD/NERL) is one of the Lead Authors of this report. The 1998 assessment focuses on new information produced since 1994. It also includes earlie...

  2. The 'island effect' in terrestrial global change experiments: a problem with no solution?

    PubMed

    Leuzinger, Sebastian; Fatichi, Simone; Cusens, Jarrod; Körner, Christian; Niklaus, Pascal A

    2015-07-27

    Most of the currently experienced global environmental changes (rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations, warming, altered amount and pattern of precipitation, and increased nutrient load) directly or indirectly affect ecosystem surface energy balance and plant transpiration. As a consequence, the relative humidity of the air surrounding the vegetation changes, thus creating a feedback loop whose net effect on transpiration and finally productivity is not trivial to quantify. Forcedly, in any global change experiment with the above drivers, we can only treat small plots, or 'islands', of vegetation. This means that the treated plots will likely experience the ambient humidity conditions influenced by the surrounding, non-treated vegetation. Experimental assessments of global change effects will thus systematically lack modifications originating from these potentially important feedback mechanisms, introducing a bias of unknown magnitude in all measurements of processes directly or indirectly depending on plant transpiration. We call this potential bias the 'island effect'. Here, we discuss its implications in various global change experiments with plants. We also suggest ways to complement experiments using modelling approaches and observational studies. Ultimately, there is no obvious solution to deal with the island effect in field experiments and only models can provide an estimate of modification of responses by these feedbacks. However, we suggest that increasing the awareness of the island effect among both experimental researchers and modellers will greatly improve the interpretation of vegetation responses to global change.

  3. Global temperature change

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lo, Ken; Lea, David W.; Medina-Elizade, Martin

    2006-01-01

    Global surface temperature has increased ≈0.2°C per decade in the past 30 years, similar to the warming rate predicted in the 1980s in initial global climate model simulations with transient greenhouse gas changes. Warming is larger in the Western Equatorial Pacific than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific over the past century, and we suggest that the increased West–East temperature gradient may have increased the likelihood of strong El Niños, such as those of 1983 and 1998. Comparison of measured sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific with paleoclimate data suggests that this critical ocean region, and probably the planet as a whole, is approximately as warm now as at the Holocene maximum and within ≈1°C of the maximum temperature of the past million years. We conclude that global warming of more than ≈1°C, relative to 2000, will constitute “dangerous” climate change as judged from likely effects on sea level and extermination of species. PMID:17001018

  4. The Effect of Land Use (Deforestation) on Global Changing and its consequences in Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Onursal Denli, G.; Denli, H. H.

    2015-12-01

    Land use has generally been considered as a local environmental issue, but it is becoming a force of global importance. Global changes to forests, farmlands, waterways, and air are being driven by the need to provide food, water and shelter to more than six billion people. Global croplands, pastures, plantations and urban areas have expanded in recent decades, accompanied by large increases in energy, water and fertilizer consumption, along with considerable losses of biodiversity. Especially the forests influence climate through physical, chemical and biological processes that affect planetary energetics, the hydrologic cycle, and atmospheric composition. Such changes in land use have enabled humans to appropriate an increasing share of the planet's resources, but they also potentially undermine the capacity of ecosystems to sustain food production, maintain freshwater and forest resources, regulate climate and air quality. Global Warming and Climate Change are the two main fundamental problems facing Turkey as well as the World. The expedition and size of this change is becoming noticeably conspicuous now. According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), the global temperature has been increased of about 0.74 degree Celsius since the Industrial Revolution. Interdisciplinary science that integrates knowledge of the many interacting climate services of forests with the impacts of global change is necessary to identify and understand as yet unexplored feedbacks in the Earth system and the potential of forests to mitigate climate change. The general scientific opinions on the climate change states that in the past 50 years, global warming has effected the human life resulting with very obvious influences. High rates of deforestation within a country are most commonly linked to population growth and poverty. In Turkey, the forests are destroyed for various reasons resulting to a change in the climate. This study examines the causes of

  5. Global change and mercury

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Krabbenhoft, David P.; Sunderland, Elsie M.

    2013-01-01

    More than 140 nations recently agreed to a legally binding treaty on reductions in human uses and releases of mercury that will be signed in October of this year. This follows the 2011 rule in the United States that for the first time regulates mercury emissions from electricity-generating utilities. Several decades of scientific research preceded these important regulations. However, the impacts of global change on environmental mercury concentrations and human exposures remain a major uncertainty affecting the potential effectiveness of regulatory activities.

  6. Space sensors for global change

    SciTech Connect

    Canavan, G.H.

    1994-02-15

    Satellite measurements should contribute to a fuller understanding of the physical processes behind the radiation budget, exchange processes, and global change. Climate engineering requires global observation for early indications of predicted effects, which puts a premium on affordable, distributed constellations of satellites with effective, affordable sensors. Defense has a requirement for continuous global surveillance for warning of aggression, which could evolve from advanced sensors and satellites in development. Many climate engineering needs match those of defense technologies.

  7. Technology and Global Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grübler, Arnulf

    2003-10-01

    Technology and Global Change describes how technology has shaped society and the environment over the last 200 years. Technology has led us from the farm to the factory to the internet, and its impacts are now global. Technology has eliminated many problems, but has added many others (ranging from urban smog to the ozone hole to global warming). This book is the first to give a comprehensive description of the causes and impacts of technological change and how they relate to global environmental change. Written for specialists and nonspecialists alike, it will be useful for researchers and professors, as a textbook for graduate students, for people engaged in long-term policy planning in industry (strategic planning departments) and government (R & D and technology ministries, environment ministries), for environmental activists (NGOs), and for the wider public interested in history, technology, or environmental issues.

  8. Global climate change and effects on Pacific Northwest salmonids: An exploratory case study

    SciTech Connect

    Shankle, S.A.

    1990-09-01

    Recently, a number of papers have addressed global warming and freshwater fisheries. The recent report to Congress by the US Environmental Protection Agency included an analysis of potential effects of global warming on fisheries of the Great Lakes, California, and the Southeast. In California, the report stated that salinity increases in the San Francisco Bay could enhance the abundance of marine fish species, while anadromous species could be adversely affected. This paper discusses global climate changes and the effects on Pacific Northwest Salmonids. The impacts of climate change or Spring Chinook production in the Yakima Sub-basin was simulated using a computer modeling system developed for the Northwest Power planning council. 35 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  9. Meta-analyses of the effects of major global change drivers on soil respiration across China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Jiguang; Wang, Jingsheng; Ding, Lubin; Yao, Pingping; Qiao, Mengping; Yao, Shuaichen

    2017-02-01

    Soil respiration (Rs) is affected largely by major global change drivers, global meta-analysis studies have synthesized the available information to determine how Rs responds to these drivers. However, little is known about the effects of these drivers on Rs across China. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis to synthesize 80 studies published in the literature with 301 paired comparisons to quantify the responses of Rs to simulated warming, nitrogen addition, precipitation increase and acid rain across Chinese terrestrial ecosystem. Results showed that global change drivers significantly changed Rs across Chinese ecosystems. Warming, nitrogen addition, and precipitation increase significantly increased Rs by 9.08%, 5.21%, 31.68%, respectively, while simulated acid rain decreased Rs by 7.06%. The responses of Rs to warming, nitrogen addition, and precipitation increase are similar in both direction and magnitude to those reported in global syntheses, except for higher response ratio under precipitation increase in China. In addition, the responses of Rs were different among ecosystem types, and among experimental treatments. Warming significantly increased Rs in croplands but did not change in forests and grasslands. The effect magnitude of N addition on Rs in grasslands and croplands was much higher than those in other ecosystems. In general, precipitation increase stimulated Rs in different ecosystems, and its effect magnitudes increased with changed precipitation levels. However, acid rain inhibited Rs in different biomes and intensities of acid rain. Our findings contribute to better understanding of how Rs will change under global change, and provide important parameters for carbon cycle model at the regional scale.

  10. Time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to climate change.

    PubMed

    Wu, Donghai; Zhao, Xiang; Liang, Shunlin; Zhou, Tao; Huang, Kaicheng; Tang, Bijian; Zhao, Wenqian

    2015-09-01

    Climate conditions significantly affect vegetation growth in terrestrial ecosystems. Due to the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystems, the vegetation responses to climate vary considerably with the diverse spatial patterns and the time-lag effects, which are the most important mechanism of climate-vegetation interactive effects. Extensive studies focused on large-scale vegetation-climate interactions use the simultaneous meteorological and vegetation indicators to develop models; however, the time-lag effects are less considered, which tends to increase uncertainty. In this study, we aim to quantitatively determine the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors using the GIMMS3g NDVI time series and the CRU temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation datasets. First, this study analyzed the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors. Then, a multiple linear regression model and partial correlation model were established to statistically analyze the roles of different climatic factors on vegetation responses, from which the primary climate-driving factors for different vegetation types were determined. The results showed that (i) both the time-lag effects of the vegetation responses and the major climate-driving factors that significantly affect vegetation growth varied significantly at the global scale, which was related to the diverse vegetation and climate characteristics; (ii) regarding the time-lag effects, the climatic factors explained 64% variation of the global vegetation growth, which was 11% relatively higher than the model ignoring the time-lag effects; (iii) for the area with a significant change trend (for the period 1982-2008) in the global GIMMS3g NDVI (P < 0.05), the primary driving factor was temperature; and (iv) at the regional scale, the variation in vegetation growth was also related to human activities and natural disturbances. Considering the time-lag effects is quite

  11. Potential effects of global environmental changes on cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis transmission.

    PubMed

    Lal, Aparna; Baker, Michael G; Hales, Simon; French, Nigel P

    2013-02-01

    Global climate change will affect the viability and spread of zoonotic parasites, while agricultural land use changes will influence infection sources and reservoirs. The health impact of these environmental changes will depend on the social, economic and physical resilience of the population. This review describes the influence of climatic variability, land-use changes, and social factors on cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in humans. Global to public health to individual-level interventions to reduce future disease burden are highlighted. Because future environmental change is expected to have the greatest health impacts in countries with limited resources, increasing research and adaptation capabilities in these regions is emphasized. Understanding how environmental and social processes interact to influence disease transmission is essential for the development of effective strategies for disease prevention.

  12. [Effects of global climate change on the C, N, and P stoichiometry of terrestrial plants].

    PubMed

    Hong, Jiang-Tao; Wu, Jian-Bo; Wang, Xiao-Dan

    2013-09-01

    The response patterns of biogeochemical cycle and the adaptation strategies of terrestrial plants under the background of global climate change have received extensive attention. This paper analyzed the effects of climate warming and precipitation change on the plant C:N:P in different ecosystems, the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on the plant nutrients in different photosynthetic pathways, and the short-term and long-term effects of the responses of soil-plant nutrients to nitrogen deposition, and explored the possible underlying mechanisms in terms of the plant physiological properties in relation to soil available nutrients, which could provide theoretical bases for studying the nutrients (C, N and P) transmission and regulation mechanisms between soil and plant, the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems, and the responses of biogeochemical cycle to global climate change. The existing problems and the further research directions in this study area were proposed.

  13. Introduction to the Special Issue: Across the horizon: scale effects in global change research.

    PubMed

    Gornish, Elise S; Leuzinger, Sebastian

    2015-01-01

    As a result of the increasing speed and magnitude in which habitats worldwide are experiencing environmental change, making accurate predictions of the effects of global change on ecosystems and the organisms that inhabit them have become an important goal for ecologists. Experimental and modelling approaches aimed at understanding the linkages between factors of global change and biotic responses have become numerous and increasingly complex in order to adequately capture the multifarious dynamics associated with these relationships. However, constrained by resources, experiments are often conducted at small spatiotemporal scales (e.g. looking at a plot of a few square metres over a few years) and at low organizational levels (looking at organisms rather than ecosystems) in spite of both theoretical and experimental work that suggests ecological dynamics across scales can be dissimilar. This phenomenon has been hypothesized to occur because the mechanisms that drive dynamics across scales differ. A good example is the effect of elevated CO2 on transpiration. While at the leaf level, transpiration can be reduced, at the stand level, transpiration can increase because leaf area per unit ground area increases. The reported net effect is then highly dependent on the spatiotemporal scale. This special issue considers the biological relevancy inherent in the patterns associated with the magnitude and type of response to changing environmental conditions, across scales. This collection of papers attempts to provide a comprehensive treatment of this phenomenon in order to help develop an understanding of the extent of, and mechanisms involved with, ecological response to global change.

  14. Solar influences on global change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1994-01-01

    Monitoring of the Sun and the Earth has yielded new knowledge essential to this debate. There is now no doubt that the total radiative energy from the Sun that heats the Earth's surface changes over decadal time scales as a consequence of solar activity. Observations indicate as well that changes in ultraviolet radiation and energetic particles from the Sun, also connected with the solar activity, modulate the layer of ozone that protects the biosphere from the solar ultraviolet radiation. This report reassesses solar influences on global change in the light of this new knowledge of solar and atmospheric variability. Moreover, the report considers climate change to be encompassed within the broader concept of global change; thus the biosphere is recognized to be part of a larger, coupled Earth system. Implementing a program to continuously monitor solar irradiance over the next several decades will provide the opportunity to estimate solar influences on global change, assuming continued maintenance of observations of climate and other potential forcing mechanisms. In the lower atmosphere, an increase in solar radiation is expected to cause global warming. In the stratosphere, however, the two effects produce temperature changes of opposite sign. A monitoring program that would augment long term observations of tropospheric parameters with similar observations of stratospheric parameters could separate these diverse climate perturbations and perhaps isolate a greenhouse footprint of climate change. Monitoring global change in the troposphere is a key element of all facets of the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), not just of the study of solar influences on global change. The need for monitoring the stratosphere is also important for global change research in its own right because of the stratospheric ozone layer.

  15. Global atmospheric changes.

    PubMed Central

    Piver, W T

    1991-01-01

    Increasing concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can be directly related to global warming. In terms of human health, because a major cause of increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 is the increased combustion of fossil fuels, global warming also may result in increases in air pollutants, acid deposition, and exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. To understand better the impacts of global warming phenomena on human health, this review emphasizes the processes that are responsible for the greenhouse effect, air pollution, acid deposition, and increased exposure to UV radiation. PMID:1820255

  16. Sensitive landscape features for detecting biotic effects of global change. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Ferson, S.; Kurtz, C.; Slice, D.

    1995-10-01

    Although several global climate models have forecast dramatic changes in future climatological conditions, very little can be predicted with any confidence about the effects on the earth`s vegetation from such environmental changes. Therefore some means is needed by which to monitor the biotic effects of global change, especially at its early stages. Ecotones, the transitional zones between larger, more compositionally well-defined biological communities, may be useful structures for monitoring the effects of climatic and other environmental impacts due to global as well as local perturbations. However, theoretical consideration of the ecological processes that determine the location and form of these structures suggests that ecotones that are sharp and therefore obvious to observers may be relatively insensitive to the types of environmental changes they might be asked to detect. It is necessary, therefore, to develop methods to identify ecotones according to the processes that generate them so that their usefulness in a particular environmental monitoring program can be assessed. This report summarizes the development of analytical methods for the detection, localization and characterization of these potentially important landscape features.

  17. Climate change, global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effects of temperature.

    PubMed

    Crabbe, M James C

    2008-10-01

    Climate change and global warming have severe consequences for the survival of scleractinian (reef-building) corals and their associated ecosystems. This review summarizes recent literature on the influence of temperature on coral growth, coral bleaching, and modelling the effects of high temperature on corals. Satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) and coral bleaching information available on the internet is an important tool in monitoring and modelling coral responses to temperature. Within the narrow temperature range for coral growth, corals can respond to rate of temperature change as well as to temperature per se. We need to continue to develop models of how non-steady-state processes such as global warming and climate change will affect coral reefs.

  18. Climate change in cities due to global warming and urban effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCarthy, Mark P.; Best, Martin J.; Betts, Richard A.

    2010-05-01

    Urbanisation is estimated to result in 6 billion urban dwellers by 2050. Cities will be exposed to climate change from greenhouse gas induced radiative forcing, and localised effects from urbanisation such as the urban heat island. An urban land-surface model has been included in the HadAM3 Global Climate Model. It shows that regions of high population growth coincide with regions of high urban heat island potential, most notably in the Middle East, the Indian sub-continent, and East Africa. Climate change has the capacity to modify the climatic potential for urban heat islands, with increases of 30% in some locations, but a global average reduction of 6%. Warming and extreme heat events due to urbanisation and increased energy consumption are simulated to be as large as the impact of doubled CO2 in some regions, and climate change increases the disparity in extreme hot nights between rural and urban areas.

  19. Combined effects of global change pressures on animal-mediated pollination.

    PubMed

    González-Varo, Juan P; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C; Bommarco, Riccardo; Potts, Simon G; Schweiger, Oliver; Smith, Henrik G; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Szentgyörgyi, Hajnalka; Woyciechowski, Michał; Vilà, Montserrat

    2013-09-01

    Pollination is an essential process in the sexual reproduction of seed plants and a key ecosystem service to human welfare. Animal pollinators decline as a consequence of five major global change pressures: climate change, landscape alteration, agricultural intensification, non-native species, and spread of pathogens. These pressures, which differ in their biotic or abiotic nature and their spatiotemporal scales, can interact in nonadditive ways (synergistically or antagonistically), but are rarely considered together in studies of pollinator and/or pollination decline. Management actions aimed at buffering the impacts of a particular pressure could thereby prove ineffective if another pressure is present. Here, we focus on empirical evidence of the combined effects of global change pressures on pollination, highlighting gaps in current knowledge and future research needs.

  20. Effects of global change during the 21st century onthe nitrogen cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fowler, D.; Steadman, C. E.; Stevenson, D.; Coyle, M.; Rees, R. M.; Skiba, U. M.; Sutton, M. A.; Cape, J. N.; Dore, A. J.; Vieno, M.; Simpson, D.; Zaehle, S.; Stocker, B. D.; Rinaldi, M.; Facchini, M. C.; Flechard, C. R.; Nemitz, E.; Twigg, M.; Erisman, J. W.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.; Galloway, J. N.

    2015-12-01

    The global nitrogen (N) cycle at the beginning of the 21st century has been shown to be strongly influenced by the inputs of reactive nitrogen (Nr) from human activities, including combustion-related NOx, industrial and agricultural N fixation, estimated to be 220 Tg N yr-1 in 2010, which is approximately equal to the sum of biological N fixation in unmanaged terrestrial and marine ecosystems. According to current projections, changes in climate and land use during the 21st century will increase both biological and anthropogenic fixation, bringing the total to approximately 600 Tg N yr-1 by around 2100. The fraction contributed directly by human activities is unlikely to increase substantially if increases in nitrogen use efficiency in agriculture are achieved and control measures on combustion-related emissions implemented. Some N-cycling processes emerge as particularly sensitive to climate change. One of the largest responses to climate in the processing of Nr is the emission to the atmosphere of NH3, which is estimated to increase from 65 Tg N yr-1 in 2008 to 93 Tg N yr-1 in 2100 assuming a change in global surface temperature of 5 °C in the absence of increased anthropogenic activity. With changes in emissions in response to increased demand for animal products the combined effect would be to increase NH3 emissions to 135 Tg N yr-1. Another major change is the effect of climate changes on aerosol composition and specifically the increased sublimation of NH4NO3 close to the ground to form HNO3 and NH3 in a warmer climate, which deposit more rapidly to terrestrial surfaces than aerosols. Inorganic aerosols over the polluted regions especially in Europe and North America were dominated by (NH4)2SO4 in the 1970s to 1980s, and large reductions in emissions of SO2 have removed most of the SO42- from the atmosphere in these regions. Inorganic aerosols from anthropogenic emissions are now dominated by NH4NO3, a volatile aerosol which contributes substantially to PM10

  1. Interactive effects of global change factors on soil respiration and its components: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Lingyan; Zhou, Xuhui; Shao, Junjiong; Nie, Yuanyuan; He, Yanghui; Jiang, Liling; Wu, Zhuoting; Hosseini Bai, Shahla

    2016-09-01

    As the second largest carbon (C) flux between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems, soil respiration (Rs) plays vital roles in regulating atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2 ]) and climatic dynamics in the earth system. Although numerous manipulative studies and a few meta-analyses have been conducted to determine the responses of Rs and its two components [i.e., autotrophic (Ra) and heterotrophic (Rh) respiration] to single global change factors, the interactive effects of the multiple factors are still unclear. In this study, we performed a meta-analysis of 150 multiple-factor (≥2) studies to examine the main and interactive effects of global change factors on Rs and its two components. Our results showed that elevated [CO2 ] (E), nitrogen addition (N), irrigation (I), and warming (W) induced significant increases in Rs by 28.6%, 8.8%, 9.7%, and 7.1%, respectively. The combined effects of the multiple factors, EN, EW, DE, IE, IN, IW, IEW, and DEW, were also significantly positive on Rs to a greater extent than those of the single-factor ones. For all the individual studies, the additive interactions were predominant on Rs (90.6%) and its components (≈70.0%) relative to synergistic and antagonistic ones. However, the different combinations of global change factors (e.g., EN, NW, EW, IW) indicated that the three types of interactions were all important, with two combinations for synergistic effects, two for antagonistic, and five for additive when at least eight independent experiments were considered. In addition, the interactions of elevated [CO2 ] and warming had opposite effects on Ra and Rh, suggesting that different processes may influence their responses to the multifactor interactions. Our study highlights the crucial importance of the interactive effects among the multiple factors on Rs and its components, which could inform regional and global models to assess the climate-biosphere feedbacks and improve predictions of the future states of the

  2. Braking effect of climate and topography on global change-induced upslope forest expansion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alatalo, Juha M.; Ferrarini, Alessandro

    2017-03-01

    Forests are expected to expand into alpine areas due to global climate change. It has recently been shown that temperature alone cannot realistically explain this process and that upslope tree advance in a warmer scenario may depend on the availability of sites with adequate geomorphic/topographic characteristics. Here, we show that, besides topography (slope and aspect), climate itself can produce a braking effect on the upslope advance of subalpine forests and that tree limit is influenced by non-linear and non-monotonic contributions of the climate variables which act upon treeline upslope advance with varying relative strengths. Our results suggest that global climate change impact on the upslope advance of subalpine forests should be interpreted in a more complex way where climate can both speed up and slow down the process depending on complex patterns of contribution from each climate and non-climate variable.

  3. Braking effect of climate and topography on global change-induced upslope forest expansion.

    PubMed

    Alatalo, Juha M; Ferrarini, Alessandro

    2017-03-01

    Forests are expected to expand into alpine areas due to global climate change. It has recently been shown that temperature alone cannot realistically explain this process and that upslope tree advance in a warmer scenario may depend on the availability of sites with adequate geomorphic/topographic characteristics. Here, we show that, besides topography (slope and aspect), climate itself can produce a braking effect on the upslope advance of subalpine forests and that tree limit is influenced by non-linear and non-monotonic contributions of the climate variables which act upon treeline upslope advance with varying relative strengths. Our results suggest that global climate change impact on the upslope advance of subalpine forests should be interpreted in a more complex way where climate can both speed up and slow down the process depending on complex patterns of contribution from each climate and non-climate variable.

  4. Braking effect of climate and topography on global change-induced upslope forest expansion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alatalo, Juha M.; Ferrarini, Alessandro

    2016-08-01

    Forests are expected to expand into alpine areas due to global climate change. It has recently been shown that temperature alone cannot realistically explain this process and that upslope tree advance in a warmer scenario may depend on the availability of sites with adequate geomorphic/topographic characteristics. Here, we show that, besides topography (slope and aspect), climate itself can produce a braking effect on the upslope advance of subalpine forests and that tree limit is influenced by non-linear and non-monotonic contributions of the climate variables which act upon treeline upslope advance with varying relative strengths. Our results suggest that global climate change impact on the upslope advance of subalpine forests should be interpreted in a more complex way where climate can both speed up and slow down the process depending on complex patterns of contribution from each climate and non-climate variable.

  5. Climate change may have limited effect on global risk of potato late blight.

    PubMed

    Sparks, Adam H; Forbes, Gregory A; Hijmans, Robert J; Garrett, Karen A

    2014-12-01

    Weather affects the severity of many plant diseases, and climate change is likely to alter the patterns of crop disease severity. Evaluating possible future patterns can help focus crop breeding and disease management research. We examined the global effect of climate change on potato late blight, the disease that caused the Irish potato famine and still is a common potato disease around the world. We used a metamodel and considered three global climate models for the A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario for three 20-year time-slices: 2000-2019, 2040-2059 and 2080-2099. In addition to global analyses, five regions were evaluated where potato is an important crop: the Andean Highlands, Indo-Gangetic Plain and Himalayan Highlands, Southeast Asian Highlands, Ethiopian Highlands, and Lake Kivu Highlands in Sub-Saharan Africa. We found that the average global risk of potato late blight increases initially, when compared with historic climate data, and then declines as planting dates shift to cooler seasons. Risk in the agro-ecosystems analyzed, varied from a large increase in risk in the Lake Kivu Highlands in Rwanda to decreases in the Southeast Asian Highlands of Indonesia.

  6. Possible effects of global environmental changes on Antarctic benthos: a synthesis across five major taxa

    PubMed Central

    Ingels, Jeroen; Vanreusel, Ann; Brandt, Angelika; Catarino, Ana I; David, Bruno; De Ridder, Chantal; Dubois, Philippe; Gooday, Andrew J; Martin, Patrick; Pasotti, Francesca; Robert, Henri

    2012-01-01

    Because of the unique conditions that exist around the Antarctic continent, Southern Ocean (SO) ecosystems are very susceptible to the growing impact of global climate change and other anthropogenic influences. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand how SO marine life will cope with expected future changes in the environment. Studies of Antarctic organisms have shown that individual species and higher taxa display different degrees of sensitivity to environmental shifts, making it difficult to predict overall community or ecosystem responses. This emphasizes the need for an improved understanding of the Antarctic benthic ecosystem response to global climate change using a multitaxon approach with consideration of different levels of biological organization. Here, we provide a synthesis of the ability of five important Antarctic benthic taxa (Foraminifera, Nematoda, Amphipoda, Isopoda, and Echinoidea) to cope with changes in the environment (temperature, pH, ice cover, ice scouring, food quantity, and quality) that are linked to climatic changes. Responses from individual to the taxon-specific community level to these drivers will vary with taxon but will include local species extinctions, invasions of warmer-water species, shifts in diversity, dominance, and trophic group composition, all with likely consequences for ecosystem functioning. Limitations in our current knowledge and understanding of climate change effects on the different levels are discussed. PMID:22423336

  7. Possible effects of global environmental changes on Antarctic benthos: a synthesis across five major taxa.

    PubMed

    Ingels, Jeroen; Vanreusel, Ann; Brandt, Angelika; Catarino, Ana I; David, Bruno; De Ridder, Chantal; Dubois, Philippe; Gooday, Andrew J; Martin, Patrick; Pasotti, Francesca; Robert, Henri

    2012-02-01

    Because of the unique conditions that exist around the Antarctic continent, Southern Ocean (SO) ecosystems are very susceptible to the growing impact of global climate change and other anthropogenic influences. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand how SO marine life will cope with expected future changes in the environment. Studies of Antarctic organisms have shown that individual species and higher taxa display different degrees of sensitivity to environmental shifts, making it difficult to predict overall community or ecosystem responses. This emphasizes the need for an improved understanding of the Antarctic benthic ecosystem response to global climate change using a multitaxon approach with consideration of different levels of biological organization. Here, we provide a synthesis of the ability of five important Antarctic benthic taxa (Foraminifera, Nematoda, Amphipoda, Isopoda, and Echinoidea) to cope with changes in the environment (temperature, pH, ice cover, ice scouring, food quantity, and quality) that are linked to climatic changes. Responses from individual to the taxon-specific community level to these drivers will vary with taxon but will include local species extinctions, invasions of warmer-water species, shifts in diversity, dominance, and trophic group composition, all with likely consequences for ecosystem functioning. Limitations in our current knowledge and understanding of climate change effects on the different levels are discussed.

  8. Potential effects of global climate change on ecosystems of the Pacific Northwest

    SciTech Connect

    Peterson, D.L.; Woodward, A.; Ettl, G.J. )

    1993-06-01

    The global climate change research program at the University of Washington Cooperative Park Studies Unit is examining the response of ecosystems in parks of the Pacific Northwest. Research is based on the concept that ecotones may be most sensitive to climate. We have focused particularly on ecotones defining alpine and subalpine vegetation, and montane and lowland forests. Results obtained from the subalpine ecotone where changes in plant distribution are easily identified, indicate that tree growth and establishment will increase in response to predicted climate change. Other ecotones and hydrologic/vegetation relationships of Crater Lake are the subject of ongoing palynological and dendrochronological studies of forest distribution, response of tree growth to climate, and physiological studies of plant tolerance. This information will be the basis for modelling efforts to predict the effect of climate change on these systems.

  9. Effects of global change during the 21st century on the nitrogen cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fowler, D.; Steadman, C. E.; Stevenson, D.; Coyle, M.; Rees, R. M.; Skiba, U. M.; Sutton, M. A.; Cape, J. N.; Dore, A. J.; Vieno, M.; Simpson, D.; Zaehle, S.; Stocker, B. D.; Rinaldi, M.; Facchini, M. C.; Flechard, C. R.; Nemitz, E.; Twigg, M.; Erisman, J. W.; Galloway, J. N.

    2015-01-01

    The global nitrogen (N) cycle at the beginning of the 21st century has been shown to be strongly influenced by the inputs of reactive nitrogen (Nr) from human activities, estimated to be 193 Tg N yr-1 in 2010 which is approximately equal to the sum of biological N fixation in terrestrial and marine ecosystems. According to current trajectories, changes in climate and land use during the 21st century will increase both biological and anthropogenic fixation, bringing the total to approximately 600 Tg N yr-1 by around 2100. The fraction contributed directly by human activities is unlikely to increase substantially if increases in nitrogen use efficiency in agriculture are achieved and control measures on combustion related emissions implemented. Some N cycling processes emerge as particularly sensitive to climate change. One of the largest responses to climate in the processing of Nr is the emission to the atmosphere of NH3, which is estimated to increase from 65 Tg N yr-1 in 2008 to 93 Tg N yr-1 in 2100 assuming a change in surface temperature of 5 °C even in the absence of increased anthropogenic activity. With changes in emissions in response to increased demand for animal products the combined effect would be to increase NH3 emissions to 132 Tg N yr-1. Another major change is the effect of changes in aerosol composition combined with changes in temperature. Inorganic aerosols over the polluted regions especially in Europe and North America were dominated by (NH4)2SO4 in the 1970s to 1980s, and large reductions in emissions of SO2 have removed most of the SO42- from the atmosphere in these regions. Inorganic aerosols from anthropogenic emissions are now dominated by NH4NO3, a volatile aerosol which contributes substantially to PM10 and human health effects globally as well as eutrophication and climate effects. The volatility of NH4NO3 and rapid dry deposition of the vapour phase dissociation products, HNO3 and NH3, is estimated to be reducing the transport

  10. Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quattrochi, D. A.; Wilbanks, T. J.; Kirshen, P. H.; Romero-Lankao, P.; Rosenzweig, C. E.; Ruth, M.; Solecki, W.; Tarr, J. A.

    2007-05-01

    Human settlements, both large and small, are where the vast majority of people on the Earth live. Expansion of cities both in population and areal extent, is a relentless process that will accelerate in the 21st century. As a consequence of urban growth both in the United States and around the globe, it is important to develop an understanding of how urbanization will affect the local and regional environment. Of equal importance, however, is the assessment of how cities will be impacted by the looming prospects of global climate change and climate variability. The potential impacts of climate change and variability has recently been enunciated by the IPCC's "Climate Change 2007" report. Moreover, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is preparing a series of "Synthesis and Assessment Products" (SAP) reports to support informed discussion and decision making regarding climate change and variability by policy makers, resource managers, stakeholders, the media, and the general public. We are working on a chapter of SAP 4.6 ("Analysis of the Effects of Global Chance on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems") wherein we wish to describe the effects of global climate change on human settlements. This paper will present the thoughts and ideas that are being formulated for our SAP report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We wish to present these ideas and concepts as a "work in progress" that are subject to several rounds of review, and we invite comments from listeners at this session on the rationale and veracity of our thoughts. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts

  11. Understanding the effects of global change on ecosystems of the Sonoran Desert

    SciTech Connect

    Halvorson, W.L. )

    1993-06-01

    The Global Change program for the Sonoran Desert just began in March 1992. Currently, two projects are being directly funded by the National Park Service and we are coordinating with research of other agencies. One thrust of the program is to understand the effect of climate on species growth, abundances and distribution. This will be done using a number of methods. One is growth ring analysis of conifers on mountain ranges in and bordering the Sonoran Desert. Another study will relate the USGS Desert Laboratory data base on plant species distributions to a mesoscale climate model. Other programs that we are coordinating with include a USGS Desert Laboratory project to study long term changes in plant communities of the southwest using a comparison of photos from the early 1930s, early 1960s and early 1990s. Other agencies have active global climate research at The University of Arizona and we are working to coordinate the NPS program with these at the investigator level through participation in a university-wide Global Change Committee.

  12. Global change research highlights

    SciTech Connect

    Krause, C.

    1995-12-31

    Wood - the fuel source of the past - is expected to be a fuel source of the future. Fast growing trees are being cloned and nurtured for conversion to biofuels to replace or supplement gasoline for transportation. The future may also bring higher temperatures and drought if global climate changes as predicted. So, it seems practical to raise fastgrowing trees that not only provide fuel by capturing carbon from the atmosphere (helping to deter climate change) but also flourish under dry conditions. A recent ORNL finding has bearing on this goal. Hybrid willow trees have been cloned because they grow fast and serve as good fuel sources. However, there are important gender differences. Male willow clones are generally more tolerant of drought than female willows. Also, male willows cause no weed problems because they do not disperse seeds. In addition research work has looked at the impact of enhanced carbon dioxide environments on the growth of trees and the potential sequestering of carbon dioxide into the trees or soils. Scientists have found that ground-level ozone in the environment can reduce the growth of the loblolly pine, a forest tree species of great economic importance in the Southeast. It is predicted that global warming could lead to changes in regional precipitation, even periods of drought. How would climate change affect the growth of forest trees? This is a question ORNL has been attempting to answer. Geologic records have been studied by means of isotope ratio techniques to study reasons for vegetation changes in the past. The question is what was the reason for these changes.

  13. Global Climate Change Interaction Web.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fortner, Rosanne W.

    1998-01-01

    Students investigate the effects of global climate change on life in the Great Lakes region in this activity. Teams working together construct as many links as possible for such factors as rainfall, lake water, evaporation, skiing, zebra mussels, wetlands, shipping, walleye, toxic chemicals, coastal homes, and population. (PVD)

  14. Effects of interactive global changes on methane uptake in an annual grassland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blankinship, Joseph C.; Brown, Jamie R.; Dijkstra, Paul; Hungate, Bruce A.

    2010-06-01

    The future size of the terrestrial methane (CH4) sink of upland soils remains uncertain, along with potential feedbacks to global warming. Much of the uncertainty lies in our lack of knowledge about potential interactive effects of multiple simultaneous global environmental changes. Field CH4 fluxes and laboratory soil CH4 consumption were measured five times during 3 consecutive years in a California annual grassland exposed to 8 years of the full factorial combination of ambient and elevated levels of precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and N deposition. Across all sampling dates and treatments, increased precipitation caused a 61% reduction in field CH4 uptake. However, this reduction depended quantitatively on other global change factors. Higher precipitation reduced CH4 uptake when temperature or N deposition (but not both) increased, and under elevated CO2 but only late in the growing season. Warming alone also decreased CH4 uptake early in the growing season, which was partly explained by a decrease in laboratory soil CH4 consumption. Atmospheric CH4 models likely need to incorporate nonadditive interactions, seasonal interactions, and interactions between methanotrophy and methanogenesis. Despite the complexity of interactions we observed in this multifactor experiment, the outcome agrees with results from single-factor experiments: an increased terrestrial CH4 sink appears less likely than a reduced one.

  15. Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Wilbanks, Thomas J.; Kirshen, Paul; Romero-Lnkao, Patricia; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruth, Matthias; Solecki, William; Tarr, Joel

    2007-01-01

    Human settlements, both large and small, are where the vast majority of people on the Earth live. Expansion of cities both in population and areal extent, is a relentless process that will accelerate in the 21st century. As a consequence of urban growth both in the United States and around the globe, it is important to develop an understanding of how urbanization will affect the local and regional environment. Of equal importance, however, is the assessment of how cities will be impacted by the looming prospects of global climate change and climate variability. The potential impacts of climate change and variability has recently been annunciated by the IPCC's "Climate Change 2007" report. Moreover, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is preparing a series of "Synthesis and Assessment Products" (SAPs) reports to support informed discussion and decision making regarding climate change and variability by policy matters, resource managers, stakeholders, the media, and the general public. We are authors on a SAP describing the effects of global climate change on human settlements. This paper will present the elements of our SAP report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e

  16. Designing Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffith, P. C.; ORyan, C.

    2012-12-01

    In a time when sensationalism rules the online world, it is best to keep things short. The people of the online world are not passing back and forth lengthy articles, but rather brief glimpses of complex information. This is the target audience we attempt to educate. Our challenge is then to attack not only ignorance, but also apathy toward global climate change, while conforming to popular modes of learning. When communicating our scientific material, it was difficult to determine what level of information was appropriate for our audience, especially with complex subject matter. Our unconventional approach for communicating the carbon crisis as it applies to global climate change caters to these 'recreational learners'. Using story-telling devices acquired from Carolyne's biomedical art background coupled with Peter's extensive knowledge of carbon cycle and ecosystems science, we developed a dynamic series of illustrations that capture the attention of a callous audience. Adapting complex carbon cycle and climate science into comic-book-style animations creates a channel between artist, scientist, and the general public. Brief scenes of information accompanied by text provide a perfect platform for visual learners, as well as fresh portrayals of stale material for the jaded. In this way art transcends the barriers of the cerebral and the abstract, paving the road to understanding.;

  17. Global environmental change

    SciTech Connect

    Corell, R.W.; Anderson, P.A.

    1990-01-01

    Fifty years ago the buzz words in science were [open quotes]atomic energy,[close quotes] and the general mood of the public, in those more naive days, was that the earth is so large that it could take any kind of human abuse. The advance of science and technology since then has proved that this is not the case. It is now common sense, even to the layperson, that the earth's environment is delicate and needs careful protection if future generations are to enjoy it. The buzz words now are [open quotes]global change.[close quotes] This book is the outcome of the Workshop on the Science of Global Environmental Change sponsored by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and is one of the NATO's Advanced Science Institute Series books. It is essentially a collection of the lectures given in the workshop. The workshop was apparently not intended for in-depth scientific discussions but to review the overall current research situation and to identify future research needs. Accordingly, the papers collected in this volume are basically of this nature.

  18. The macroecological contribution to global change solutions.

    PubMed

    Kerr, Jeremy T; Kharouba, Heather M; Currie, David J

    2007-06-15

    Anthropogenic global changes threaten species and the ecosystem services upon which society depends. Effective solutions to this multifaceted crisis need scientific responses spanning disciplines and spatial scales. Macroecology develops broad-scale predictions of species' distributions and abundances, complementing the frequently local focus of global change biology. Macroecological discoveries rely particularly on correlative methods but have still proven effective in predicting global change impacts on species. However, global changes create pseudo-experimental opportunities to build stronger, mechanistic theories in macroecology that successfully predict multiple phenomena across spatial scales. Such macroecological perspectives will help address the biotic consequences of global change.

  19. Local food web management increases resilience and buffers against global change effects on freshwaters

    PubMed Central

    Urrutia-Cordero, Pablo; Ekvall, Mattias K.; Hansson, Lars-Anders

    2016-01-01

    A major challenge for ecological research is to identify ways to improve resilience to climate-induced changes in order to secure the ecosystem functions of natural systems, as well as ecosystem services for human welfare. With respect to aquatic ecosystems, interactions between climate warming and the elevated runoff of humic substances (brownification) may strongly affect ecosystem functions and services. However, we hitherto lack the adaptive management tools needed to counteract such global-scale effects on freshwater ecosystems. Here we show, both experimentally and using monitoring data, that predicted climatic warming and brownification will reduce freshwater quality by exacerbating cyanobacterial growth and toxin levels. Furthermore, in a model based on long-term data from a natural system, we demonstrate that food web management has the potential to increase the resilience of freshwater systems against the growth of harmful cyanobacteria, and thereby that local efforts offer an opportunity to secure our water resources against some of the negative impacts of climate warming and brownification. This allows for novel policy action at a local scale to counteract effects of global-scale environmental change, thereby providing a buffer period and a safer operating space until climate mitigation strategies are effectively established. PMID:27386957

  20. Local food web management increases resilience and buffers against global change effects on freshwaters.

    PubMed

    Urrutia-Cordero, Pablo; Ekvall, Mattias K; Hansson, Lars-Anders

    2016-07-08

    A major challenge for ecological research is to identify ways to improve resilience to climate-induced changes in order to secure the ecosystem functions of natural systems, as well as ecosystem services for human welfare. With respect to aquatic ecosystems, interactions between climate warming and the elevated runoff of humic substances (brownification) may strongly affect ecosystem functions and services. However, we hitherto lack the adaptive management tools needed to counteract such global-scale effects on freshwater ecosystems. Here we show, both experimentally and using monitoring data, that predicted climatic warming and brownification will reduce freshwater quality by exacerbating cyanobacterial growth and toxin levels. Furthermore, in a model based on long-term data from a natural system, we demonstrate that food web management has the potential to increase the resilience of freshwater systems against the growth of harmful cyanobacteria, and thereby that local efforts offer an opportunity to secure our water resources against some of the negative impacts of climate warming and brownification. This allows for novel policy action at a local scale to counteract effects of global-scale environmental change, thereby providing a buffer period and a safer operating space until climate mitigation strategies are effectively established.

  1. Local food web management increases resilience and buffers against global change effects on freshwaters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Urrutia-Cordero, Pablo; Ekvall, Mattias K.; Hansson, Lars-Anders

    2016-07-01

    A major challenge for ecological research is to identify ways to improve resilience to climate-induced changes in order to secure the ecosystem functions of natural systems, as well as ecosystem services for human welfare. With respect to aquatic ecosystems, interactions between climate warming and the elevated runoff of humic substances (brownification) may strongly affect ecosystem functions and services. However, we hitherto lack the adaptive management tools needed to counteract such global-scale effects on freshwater ecosystems. Here we show, both experimentally and using monitoring data, that predicted climatic warming and brownification will reduce freshwater quality by exacerbating cyanobacterial growth and toxin levels. Furthermore, in a model based on long-term data from a natural system, we demonstrate that food web management has the potential to increase the resilience of freshwater systems against the growth of harmful cyanobacteria, and thereby that local efforts offer an opportunity to secure our water resources against some of the negative impacts of climate warming and brownification. This allows for novel policy action at a local scale to counteract effects of global-scale environmental change, thereby providing a buffer period and a safer operating space until climate mitigation strategies are effectively established.

  2. Separating direct and indirect effects of global change: a population dynamic modeling approach using readily available field data.

    PubMed

    Farrer, Emily C; Ashton, Isabel W; Knape, Jonas; Suding, Katharine N

    2014-04-01

    Two sources of complexity make predicting plant community response to global change particularly challenging. First, realistic global change scenarios involve multiple drivers of environmental change that can interact with one another to produce non-additive effects. Second, in addition to these direct effects, global change drivers can indirectly affect plants by modifying species interactions. In order to tackle both of these challenges, we propose a novel population modeling approach, requiring only measurements of abundance and climate over time. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, we model population dynamics of eight abundant plant species in a multifactorial global change experiment in alpine tundra where we manipulated nitrogen, precipitation, and temperature over 7 years. We test whether indirect and interactive effects are important to population dynamics and whether explicitly incorporating species interactions can change predictions when models are forecast under future climate change scenarios. For three of the eight species, population dynamics were best explained by direct effect models, for one species neither direct nor indirect effects were important, and for the other four species indirect effects mattered. Overall, global change had negative effects on species population growth, although species responded to different global change drivers, and single-factor effects were slightly more common than interactive direct effects. When the fitted population dynamic models were extrapolated under changing climatic conditions to the end of the century, forecasts of community dynamics and diversity loss were largely similar using direct effect models that do not explicitly incorporate species interactions or best-fit models; however, inclusion of species interactions was important in refining the predictions for two of the species. The modeling approach proposed here is a powerful way of analyzing readily available datasets which should be

  3. Compensatory water effects link yearly global land CO2 sink changes to temperature.

    PubMed

    Jung, Martin; Reichstein, Markus; Schwalm, Christopher R; Huntingford, Chris; Sitch, Stephen; Ahlström, Anders; Arneth, Almut; Camps-Valls, Gustau; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gans, Fabian; Ichii, Kazuhito; Jain, Atul K; Kato, Etsushi; Papale, Dario; Poulter, Ben; Raduly, Botond; Rödenbeck, Christian; Tramontana, Gianluca; Viovy, Nicolas; Wang, Ying-Ping; Weber, Ulrich; Zaehle, Sönke; Zeng, Ning

    2017-01-26

    Large interannual variations in the measured growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) originate primarily from fluctuations in carbon uptake by land ecosystems. It remains uncertain, however, to what extent temperature and water availability control the carbon balance of land ecosystems across spatial and temporal scales. Here we use empirical models based on eddy covariance data and process-based models to investigate the effect of changes in temperature and water availability on gross primary productivity (GPP), terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at local and global scales. We find that water availability is the dominant driver of the local interannual variability in GPP and TER. To a lesser extent this is true also for NEE at the local scale, but when integrated globally, temporal NEE variability is mostly driven by temperature fluctuations. We suggest that this apparent paradox can be explained by two compensatory water effects. Temporal water-driven GPP and TER variations compensate locally, dampening water-driven NEE variability. Spatial water availability anomalies also compensate, leaving a dominant temperature signal in the year-to-year fluctuations of the land carbon sink. These findings help to reconcile seemingly contradictory reports regarding the importance of temperature and water in controlling the interannual variability of the terrestrial carbon balance. Our study indicates that spatial climate covariation drives the global carbon cycle response.

  4. Compensatory water effects link yearly global land CO2 sink changes to temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jung, Martin; Reichstein, Markus; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Huntingford, Chris; Sitch, Stephen; Ahlström, Anders; Arneth, Almut; Camps-Valls, Gustau; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gans, Fabian; Ichii, Kazuhito; Jain, Atul K.; Kato, Etsushi; Papale, Dario; Poulter, Ben; Raduly, Botond; Rödenbeck, Christian; Tramontana, Gianluca; Viovy, Nicolas; Wang, Ying-Ping; Weber, Ulrich; Zaehle, Sönke; Zeng, Ning

    2017-01-01

    Large interannual variations in the measured growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) originate primarily from fluctuations in carbon uptake by land ecosystems. It remains uncertain, however, to what extent temperature and water availability control the carbon balance of land ecosystems across spatial and temporal scales. Here we use empirical models based on eddy covariance data and process-based models to investigate the effect of changes in temperature and water availability on gross primary productivity (GPP), terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at local and global scales. We find that water availability is the dominant driver of the local interannual variability in GPP and TER. To a lesser extent this is true also for NEE at the local scale, but when integrated globally, temporal NEE variability is mostly driven by temperature fluctuations. We suggest that this apparent paradox can be explained by two compensatory water effects. Temporal water-driven GPP and TER variations compensate locally, dampening water-driven NEE variability. Spatial water availability anomalies also compensate, leaving a dominant temperature signal in the year-to-year fluctuations of the land carbon sink. These findings help to reconcile seemingly contradictory reports regarding the importance of temperature and water in controlling the interannual variability of the terrestrial carbon balance. Our study indicates that spatial climate covariation drives the global carbon cycle response.

  5. The effects of global changes upon regional ozone pollution in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, J.; Avise, J.; Lamb, B.; Salathé, E.; Mass, C.; Guenther, A.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Lamarque, J.-F.; O'Neill, S.; McKenzie, D.; Larkin, N.

    2008-08-01

    A comprehensive numerical modeling framework was developed to estimate the effects of collective global changes upon ozone pollution in the US in 2050. The framework consists of the global climate and chemistry models, PCM (Parallel Climate Model) and MOZART-2 (Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers v.2), coupled with regional meteorology and chemistry models, MM5 (Mesoscale Meteorological model) and CMAQ (Community Multi-scale Air Quality model). The modeling system was applied for two 10-year simulations: 1990 1999 as a present-day base case and 2045 2054 as a future case. The regional simulations employed 36-km grid cells covering the continental US with boundary conditions taken from the global models. For the current decade, the distributions of summer daily maxima 8-h (DM8H) ozone showed good agreement with observed distributions throughout the US. The future case simulation followed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 scenario together with business-as-usual US emission projections and projected alterations in land use, land cover (LULC) due to urban expansion and changes in vegetation. For these projections, US anthropogenic NOx (NO + NO2) and VOC (volatile organic carbon) emissions increased by approximately 8% and 50%, respectively, while biogenic VOC emissions decreased, in spite of warmer temperatures, due to decreases in forested lands and expansion of croplands, grasslands and urban areas. A stochastic model for wildfire emissions was applied that projected 25% higher VOC emissions in the future. For the global and US emission projection used here, regional ozone pollution becomes worse in the 2045-2054 period for all months. Annually, the mean DM8H ozone was projected to increase by 9.6 ppbv (22%). The changes were higher in the spring and winter (25%) and smaller in the summer (17%). The area affected by elevated ozone within the US continent was projected to increase; areas with levels exceeding the 75 ppbv ozone standard

  6. Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Wilbanks, Thomas J.; Kirshen, Paul; Romero-Lankao, Patricia; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruth, Mattias; Solecki, William; Tarr, Joel

    2008-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews some of the effects that global change has on urban areas in the United States and how the growth of urban areas will affect the environment. It presents the elements of our Synthesis and Assessment Report (SAP) report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e.g. public health, urban planning for mitigation strategies) on how cities can cope and adapt to climate change and variability. This latter point parallels the concepts and ideas presented in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Survey report on "Earth Science Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" wherein the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability, human health, and land use change are listed as key areas for development of future Earth observing remote sensing systems.

  7. Global change effects on humid tropical forests: Evidence for biogeochemical and biodiversity shifts at an ecosystem scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cusack, Daniela F.; Karpman, Jason; Ashdown, Daniel; Cao, Qian; Ciochina, Mark; Halterman, Sarah; Lydon, Scott; Neupane, Avishesh

    2016-09-01

    Government and international agencies have highlighted the need to focus global change research efforts on tropical ecosystems. However, no recent comprehensive review exists synthesizing humid tropical forest responses across global change factors, including warming, decreased precipitation, carbon dioxide fertilization, nitrogen deposition, and land use/land cover changes. This paper assesses research across spatial and temporal scales for the tropics, including modeling, field, and controlled laboratory studies. The review aims to (1) provide a broad understanding of how a suite of global change factors are altering humid tropical forest ecosystem properties and biogeochemical processes; (2) assess spatial variability in responses to global change factors among humid tropical regions; (3) synthesize results from across humid tropical regions to identify emergent trends in ecosystem responses; (4) identify research and management priorities for the humid tropics in the context of global change. Ecosystem responses covered here include plant growth, carbon storage, nutrient cycling, biodiversity, and disturbance regime shifts. The review demonstrates overall negative effects of global change on all ecosystem properties, with the greatest uncertainty and variability in nutrient cycling responses. Generally, all global change factors reviewed, except for carbon dioxide fertilization, demonstrate great potential to trigger positive feedbacks to global warming via greenhouse gas emissions and biogeophysical changes that cause regional warming. This assessment demonstrates that effects of decreased rainfall and deforestation on tropical forests are relatively well understood, whereas the potential effects of warming, carbon dioxide fertilization, nitrogen deposition, and plant species invasions require more cross-site, mechanistic research to predict tropical forest responses at regional and global scales.

  8. Global Governance, Educational Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mundy, Karen

    2007-01-01

    In the last half decade, a rising literature has focused on the idea that processes of economic, political and social globalization require analysis in terms of governance at the global level. It is argued in this article that emerging forms of global governance have produced significant challenges to conventional conceptions of international…

  9. Modeling the effects of climate change and acidification on global coral reefs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Logan, C. A.; Donner, S. D.; Eakin, C.; Dunne, J. P.

    2010-12-01

    Climate warming threatens to increase the frequency of mass coral bleaching events. Meanwhile, ocean acidification may increase susceptibility to these events and slow the recovery of corals following bleaching. Using future sea surface warming scenarios from global coupled climate models, previous studies have estimated that corals will experience biannual bleaching events by mid-century unless they are able to acclimatize or adapt at a rate of ~0.2-1.0°C per decade. Empirical studies also show that certain coral ecotypes may be more resistant to bleaching than others (e.g. massive vs. branching). Likewise, more variable thermal history may play a significant role in increasing resistance to bleaching. Better quantifying the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on coral reefs under different future scenarios is critical to making proactive decisions about both mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation to climate change. Proposed here is a model that uses two of the ESM2 GFDL models and combines several previous attempts at modeling climate change effects. This model incorporates thermal history and adaptability into a modified Degree Heating Week bleaching threshold. The model is designed to examine the effects of rising SSTs alone as well as in combination with ocean acidification and other factors to predict future global coral reef bleaching frequency and response by coral ecotype. The ESM2 GFDL models are validated for use in coral reef areas by comparing model results against historical SST satellite data for the years 1985-2006 at 4km and 50km spatial resolutions to assess the models’ reproducibility of mean annual temperature, range, and variability. The modified bleaching threshold is tested against observational bleaching records in well-documented areas (e.g., Great Barrier Reef).

  10. Biogeochemical effects of global change on U.S. National Parks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Herrmann, R.; Stottlemyer, R.; Zak, J.C.; Edmonds, R.L.; Van Miegroet, H.

    2000-01-01

    Federal parks and other public lands have unique mandates and rules regulating their use and conservation. Because of variation in their response to local, regional, and global-scale disturbance, development of mitigation strategies requires substantial research in the context of long-term inventory and monitoring. In 1982, the National Park Service began long-term, watershed-level studies in a series of national parks. The objective was to provide a more comprehensive database against which the effects of global change and other issues could be quantified. A subset of five sites in North Carolina, Texas, Washington, Michigan, and Alaska, is examined here. During the last 50 years, temperatures have declined at the southern sites and increased at the northern sites with the greatest increase in Alaska. Only the most southern site has shown an increase in precipitation amount. The net effect of these trends, especially for the most northern and southern sites, would likely be an increase in the growing season and especially the time soil processes could continue without moisture or temperature limitations. During the last 18 years, there were few trends in atmospheric ion inputs. The most evident was the decline in SO42- deposition. There were no significant relationships between ion input and stream water output. This finding suggests other factors as modification of precipitation or canopy throughfall by soil processes, hydrologic flow path, and snowmelt rates are major processes regulating stream water chemical outputs.

  11. Global change effects on a Mediterranean river flow in NE Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pla, Eduard; Pascual, Diana; López-Bustins, Joan Albert; Savé, Robert; Biel, Carmen; Serra, Joan; Milego, Roger; Tamoh, Karim

    2010-05-01

    Climate change is generally accepted as a factor influencing hydrological cycles worldwide. However, these cycles are also affected by other phenomena, both (i) of natural (geomorphological and ecosystem changes, natural climate variations, etc) and (ii) human-related (changes of agro-forest uses, developments and settlements, changes on social dynamics, etc) origin. In this context we have studied flow changes in the headwater of the Fluvià River, la Vall d'en Bas (NE Spain), along the recent 25 years (1984-2008). We have registered a 60%-reduction of river flow during this period. We have not detected a significant decrease on rainfall values (which remained relatively stable). However, we have measured an increase of 10% in mean annual temperature (+1.2 °C) which resulted on a significant 9%-increment in ETP. This ETP increase could partially explain the reduction of surface water flow in the headwater of the Fluvià River. However, we conclude that there might be other reasons behind this flow decrease, such as modifications on forest and agricultural practices during the recent decades. We have detected significant land use changes for the period studied: rural abandonment and consequent natural colonization by forest species, reduction of forest management practices, increase of water demand (i.e., increase of irrigated crops, industry development and diffuse housing spreading). In further research we will analyze the contribution of each factor in water dynamics in order to define adaptive strategies. This work is part of the ACCUA project (www.creaf.uab.cat/accua) that aims at evaluating the territorial vulnerability of the Mediterranean littoral to the main effects of global change in relation to water availability.

  12. Interactive effects of global climate change and pollution on marine microbes: the way ahead

    PubMed Central

    Coelho, Francisco J R C; Santos, Ana L; Coimbra, Joana; Almeida, Adelaide; Cunha, Ângela; Cleary, Daniel F R; Calado, Ricardo; Gomes, Newton C M

    2013-01-01

    Global climate change has the potential to seriously and adversely affect marine ecosystem functioning. Numerous experimental and modeling studies have demonstrated how predicted ocean acidification and increased ultraviolet radiation (UVR) can affect marine microbes. However, researchers have largely ignored interactions between ocean acidification, increased UVR and anthropogenic pollutants in marine environments. Such interactions can alter chemical speciation and the bioavailability of several organic and inorganic pollutants with potentially deleterious effects, such as modifying microbial-mediated detoxification processes. Microbes mediate major biogeochemical cycles, providing fundamental ecosystems services such as environmental detoxification and recovery. It is, therefore, important that we understand how predicted changes to oceanic pH, UVR, and temperature will affect microbial pollutant detoxification processes in marine ecosystems. The intrinsic characteristics of microbes, such as their short generation time, small size, and functional role in biogeochemical cycles combined with recent advances in molecular techniques (e.g., metagenomics and metatranscriptomics) make microbes excellent models to evaluate the consequences of various climate change scenarios on detoxification processes in marine ecosystems. In this review, we highlight the importance of microbial microcosm experiments, coupled with high-resolution molecular biology techniques, to provide a critical experimental framework to start understanding how climate change, anthropogenic pollution, and microbiological interactions may affect marine ecosystems in the future. PMID:23789087

  13. Interactive effects of global climate change and pollution on marine microbes: the way ahead.

    PubMed

    Coelho, Francisco J R C; Santos, Ana L; Coimbra, Joana; Almeida, Adelaide; Cunha, Angela; Cleary, Daniel F R; Calado, Ricardo; Gomes, Newton C M

    2013-06-01

    Global climate change has the potential to seriously and adversely affect marine ecosystem functioning. Numerous experimental and modeling studies have demonstrated how predicted ocean acidification and increased ultraviolet radiation (UVR) can affect marine microbes. However, researchers have largely ignored interactions between ocean acidification, increased UVR and anthropogenic pollutants in marine environments. Such interactions can alter chemical speciation and the bioavailability of several organic and inorganic pollutants with potentially deleterious effects, such as modifying microbial-mediated detoxification processes. Microbes mediate major biogeochemical cycles, providing fundamental ecosystems services such as environmental detoxification and recovery. It is, therefore, important that we understand how predicted changes to oceanic pH, UVR, and temperature will affect microbial pollutant detoxification processes in marine ecosystems. The intrinsic characteristics of microbes, such as their short generation time, small size, and functional role in biogeochemical cycles combined with recent advances in molecular techniques (e.g., metagenomics and metatranscriptomics) make microbes excellent models to evaluate the consequences of various climate change scenarios on detoxification processes in marine ecosystems. In this review, we highlight the importance of microbial microcosm experiments, coupled with high-resolution molecular biology techniques, to provide a critical experimental framework to start understanding how climate change, anthropogenic pollution, and microbiological interactions may affect marine ecosystems in the future.

  14. Contemplating Catastrophe: conveying the causes, effects, risks of and responses to global change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCaffrey, M.; Berbeco, M.; Lahsen, M.

    2013-12-01

    Humans are changing nature and undermining the life supporting systems of the planet to an unprecedented extent, eroding more soil than all natural processes combined, fixing more nitrogen than all the bacteria on the planet, and substantially altering the land cover and chemistry of the atmosphere and waters. Yet, especially in the United States but also elsewhere, environmental awareness and policy action has been lackluster and hesitant due to a range of factors, including manufactured doubt and denial, psychological, cultural and economic investments in maintenance of status quo, and - when concern does exist - lack of knowledge about how to foster effective change. This paper will examine how recent research findings on human impacts on the planet are being conveyed to non-technical audiences and discuss challenges and opportunities to provide the public with the relevant knowledge and knowhow to address the risks of, and responses to global change. It will argue that a second-wave scientific literacy consisting in deeper understanding of the scientific process must be nurtured as part of a process to capacitate populations, especially youths, to navigate conflicting evidence and claims that surround many environmental threats. Such literacy must be fostered through 'learning conversations,' community and capacity-building, and integrated education, communication and outreach infusing science and solutions to foster a more effective approach to confronting potential catastrophe. 25 February 2013 at 16:30 Pacific Time

  15. Global climatic change

    SciTech Connect

    Houghton, R.A.; Woodwell, G.M.

    1989-04-01

    This paper reviews the climatic effects of trace gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. It discusses the expected changes from the increases in trace gases and the extent to which the expected changes can be found in the climate record and in the retreat of glaciers. The use of ice cores in correlating atmospheric composition and climate is discussed. The response of terrestrial ecosystems as a biotic feedback is discussed. Possible responses are discussed, including reduction in fossil-fuel use, controls on deforestation, and reforestation. International aspects, such as the implications for developing nations, are addressed.

  16. Bibliography of global change, 1992

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1993-01-01

    This bibliography lists 585 reports, articles, and other documents introduced in the NASA Scientific and Technical Information Database in 1992. The areas covered include global change, decision making, earth observation (from space), forecasting, global warming, policies, and trends.

  17. Global Change: The Scientific Challenge.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Monastersky, Richard

    1989-01-01

    Described are efforts to organize the research efforts concerning global change. Objectives include the development of long-term monitoring programs, global process research campaigns, and predictive computer models. (CW)

  18. The effects of global changes upon regional ozone pollution in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, J.; Avise, J.; Lamb, B.; Salathé, E.; Mass, C.; Guenther, A.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Lamarque, J.-F.; O'Neill, S.; McKenzie, D.; Larkin, N.

    2009-02-01

    A comprehensive numerical modeling framework was developed to estimate the effects of collective global changes upon ozone pollution in the US in 2050. The framework consists of the global climate and chemistry models, PCM (Parallel Climate Model) and MOZART-2 (Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers v.2), coupled with regional meteorology and chemistry models, MM5 (Mesoscale Meteorological model) and CMAQ (Community Multi-scale Air Quality model). The modeling system was applied for two 10-year simulations: 1990-1999 as a present-day base case and 2045-2054 as a future case. For the current decade, the daily maximum 8-h moving average (DM8H) ozone mixing ratio distributions for spring, summer and fall showed good agreement with observations. The future case simulation followed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 scenario together with business-as-usual US emission projections and projected alterations in land use, land cover (LULC) due to urban expansion and changes in vegetation. For these projections, US anthropogenic NOx (NO+NO2) and VOC (volatile organic carbon) emissions increased by approximately 6% and 50%, respectively, while biogenic VOC emissions decreased, in spite of warmer temperatures, due to decreases in forested lands and expansion of croplands, grasslands and urban areas. A stochastic model for wildfire emissions was applied that projected 25% higher VOC emissions in the future. For the global and US emission projection used here, regional ozone pollution becomes worse in the 2045-2054 period for all months. Annually, the mean DM8H ozone was projected to increase by 9.6 ppbv (22%). The changes were higher in the spring and winter (25%) and smaller in the summer (17%). The area affected by elevated ozone within the US continent was projected to increase; areas with levels exceeding the 75 ppbv ozone standard at least once a year increased by 38%. In addition, the length of the ozone season was projected to increase with

  19. Global Change in the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alverson, Keith

    2004-05-01

    Many people, even perhaps the occasional Eos reader, associate the term ``global change'' with warming caused by mankind's recent addiction to fossil fuels. Some may also be well aware of enormous global changes in the distant past uninfluenced by humans; for example, Pleistocene ice ages. But was there any ``global change'' between the end of the last ice age and the onset of industrialization? The answer to this question is addressed early-in the title, even-in the new book Global Change in the Holocene. I don't suggest anyone stop reading after the title, though; the rest of the book is both highly informative and a real pleasure to read. The opening chapter tells us that the Holocene is certainly not, as sometimes charged, a ``bland, pastoral coda to the contrasted movements of a stirring Pleistocene symphony.'' Rather, it is a ``period of continuous change.'' Melodious language aside, the combination of sustained and high-amplitude climatic variability and a wealth of well-preserved, precisely datable paleoclimate archives make the Holocene unique. Only by studying the Holocene can we hope to unravel the low-frequency workings of the Earth system and the degree to which humans have changed our world. This book sets out to teach the reader how to obtain the relevant data and how to use it to do much more than showing static analogues of possible future climate states. It challenges researchers to discern in their data the effects of the dynamic processes underlying coupled variability in the Earth's climate and ecosystems. These processes continue to act today, and it is through providing an understanding of these system dynamics in the Holocene that paleo-environmental studies can make the greatest contribution to future-oriented concerns.

  20. Effects of global change on hydro-geomorphological hazards in Mediterranean rivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andres Lopez-Tarazon, Jose

    2015-04-01

    Mediterranean river basins are characterized by high (often extreme) temporal variability in precipitation, and hence discharge. Mediterranean countries are considered sensitive to so-called global change, considered as the combination of climate and land use changes. All panels on climate evolution predict future scenarios of increasing frequency and magnitude of floods and extended droughts in the Mediterranean region; both floods and droughts are likely to lead to huge geomorphic adjustments of river channels so, major metamorphosis of fluvial systems is expected as a result of global change. Water resources in the Mediterranean region is subjected to rising pressures, becoming a key issue for all governments (i.e. clear imbalance between the available water resources and the increasing water demand related to increasing human population). Such pressures are likely to give rise to major ecological and economic changes and challenges that governments need to address as a matter of priority. Changes in river flow regimes associated with global change are therefore ushering in a new era, where there is a critical need to evaluate hydro-geomorphological hazard from headwaters to lowland areas (flooding can be not just a problem related to being under the water). A key question is how our understanding of these hazards associated with global change can be improved; improvement has to come from integrated research which includes all physical conditions that influence the conveyance of water and sediments, and the river's capacity (i.e. amount of sediment) and competence (i.e. channel deformation) that, in turn, will influence physical conditions of a given point in the river network. This is the framework of the present work; it is directed to develop an integrated approach which both improves our understanding of how rivers are likely to evolve as a result of global change, and addresses the associated hazards of fluvial environmental change.

  1. COMBINED AND INTERACTIVE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND TOXICANTS ON POPULATIONS AND COMMUNITIES

    PubMed Central

    Moe, S Jannicke; De Schamphelaere, Karel; Clements, William H; Sorensen, Mary T; Van den Brink, Paul J; Liess, Matthias

    2013-01-01

    Increased temperature and other environmental effects of global climate change (GCC) have documented impacts on many species (e.g., polar bears, amphibians, coral reefs) as well as on ecosystem processes and species interactions (e.g., the timing of predator–prey interactions). A challenge for ecotoxicologists is to predict how joint effects of climatic stress and toxicants measured at the individual level (e.g., reduced survival and reproduction) will be manifested at the population level (e.g., population growth rate, extinction risk) and community level (e.g., species richness, food-web structure). The authors discuss how population- and community-level responses to toxicants under GCC are likely to be influenced by various ecological mechanisms. Stress due to GCC may reduce the potential for resistance to and recovery from toxicant exposure. Long-term toxicant exposure can result in acquired tolerance to this stressor at the population or community level, but an associated cost of tolerance may be the reduced potential for tolerance to subsequent climatic stress (or vice versa). Moreover, GCC can induce large-scale shifts in community composition, which may affect the vulnerability of communities to other stressors. Ecological modeling based on species traits (representing life-history traits, population vulnerability, sensitivity to toxicants, and sensitivity to climate change) can be a promising approach for predicting combined impacts of GCC and toxicants on populations and communities. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2013;32:49–61. © 2012 SETAC PMID:23147390

  2. Combined and interactive effects of global climate change and toxicants on populations and communities.

    PubMed

    Moe, S Jannicke; De Schamphelaere, Karel; Clements, William H; Sorensen, Mary T; Van den Brink, Paul J; Liess, Matthias

    2013-01-01

    Increased temperature and other environmental effects of global climate change (GCC) have documented impacts on many species (e.g., polar bears, amphibians, coral reefs) as well as on ecosystem processes and species interactions (e.g., the timing of predator-prey interactions). A challenge for ecotoxicologists is to predict how joint effects of climatic stress and toxicants measured at the individual level (e.g., reduced survival and reproduction) will be manifested at the population level (e.g., population growth rate, extinction risk) and community level (e.g., species richness, food-web structure). The authors discuss how population- and community-level responses to toxicants under GCC are likely to be influenced by various ecological mechanisms. Stress due to GCC may reduce the potential for resistance to and recovery from toxicant exposure. Long-term toxicant exposure can result in acquired tolerance to this stressor at the population or community level, but an associated cost of tolerance may be the reduced potential for tolerance to subsequent climatic stress (or vice versa). Moreover, GCC can induce large-scale shifts in community composition, which may affect the vulnerability of communities to other stressors. Ecological modeling based on species traits (representing life-history traits, population vulnerability, sensitivity to toxicants, and sensitivity to climate change) can be a promising approach for predicting combined impacts of GCC and toxicants on populations and communities.

  3. Global Change and Response of Coastal Dune Plants to the Combined Effects of Increased Sand Accretion (Burial) and Nutrient Availability

    PubMed Central

    Frosini, Silvia; Lardicci, Claudio; Balestri, Elena

    2012-01-01

    Coastal dune plants are subjected to natural multiple stresses and vulnerable to global change. Some changes associated with global change could interact in their effects on vegetation. As vegetation plays a fundamental role in building and stabilizing dune systems, effective coastal habitat management requires a better understanding of the combined effects of such changes on plant populations. A manipulative experiment was conducted along a Mediterranean dune system to examine the individual and combined effects of increased sediment accretion (burial) and nitrogen enrichment associated with predicted global change on the performance of young clones of Sporobolus virginicus, a widespread dune stabilizing species. Increased burial severity resulted in the production of taller but thinner shoots, while nutrient enrichment stimulated rhizome production. Nutrient enrichment increased total plant biomass up to moderate burial levels (50% of plant height), but it had not effect at the highest burial level (100% of plant height). The effects of such factors on total biomass, shoot biomass and branching were influenced by spatial variation in natural factors at the scale of hundreds of metres. These results indicate that the effects of burial and nutrient enrichment on plant performance were not independent. Their combined effects may not be predicted by knowing the individual effects, at least under the study conditions. Under global change scenarios, increased nutrient input could alleviate nutrient stress in S. virginicus, enhancing clonal expansion and productivity, but this benefit could be offset by increased sand accretion levels equal or exceeding 100% of plant height. Depletion of stored reserves for emerging from sand could increase plant vulnerability to other stresses in the long-term. The results emphasize the need to incorporate statistical designs for detecting non-independent effects of multiple changes and adequate spatial replication in future works to

  4. Global change and response of coastal dune plants to the combined effects of increased sand accretion (burial) and nutrient availability.

    PubMed

    Frosini, Silvia; Lardicci, Claudio; Balestri, Elena

    2012-01-01

    Coastal dune plants are subjected to natural multiple stresses and vulnerable to global change. Some changes associated with global change could interact in their effects on vegetation. As vegetation plays a fundamental role in building and stabilizing dune systems, effective coastal habitat management requires a better understanding of the combined effects of such changes on plant populations. A manipulative experiment was conducted along a Mediterranean dune system to examine the individual and combined effects of increased sediment accretion (burial) and nitrogen enrichment associated with predicted global change on the performance of young clones of Sporobolus virginicus, a widespread dune stabilizing species. Increased burial severity resulted in the production of taller but thinner shoots, while nutrient enrichment stimulated rhizome production. Nutrient enrichment increased total plant biomass up to moderate burial levels (50% of plant height), but it had not effect at the highest burial level (100% of plant height). The effects of such factors on total biomass, shoot biomass and branching were influenced by spatial variation in natural factors at the scale of hundreds of metres. These results indicate that the effects of burial and nutrient enrichment on plant performance were not independent. Their combined effects may not be predicted by knowing the individual effects, at least under the study conditions. Under global change scenarios, increased nutrient input could alleviate nutrient stress in S. virginicus, enhancing clonal expansion and productivity, but this benefit could be offset by increased sand accretion levels equal or exceeding 100% of plant height. Depletion of stored reserves for emerging from sand could increase plant vulnerability to other stresses in the long-term. The results emphasize the need to incorporate statistical designs for detecting non-independent effects of multiple changes and adequate spatial replication in future works to

  5. Global change effects on Bromus tectorum L. (Poaceae) at its high-elevation range margin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Concilio, Amy L.; Loik, Michael E.; Belnap, Jayne

    2013-01-01

    Global change is likely to affect invasive species distribution, especially at range margins. In the eastern Sierra Nevada, California, USA, the invasive annual grass, Bromus tectorum, is patchily distributed and its impacts have been minimal compared with other areas of the Intermountain West. We used a series of in situ field manipulations to determine how B. tectorum might respond to changing climatic conditions and increased nitrogen deposition at the high-elevation edge of its invaded range. Over 3 years, we used snow fences to simulate changes in snowpack, irrigation to simulate increased frequency and magnitude of springtime precipitation, and added nitrogen (N) at three levels (0, 5, and 10 g m-2) to natural patches of B. tectorum growing under the two dominant shrubs, Artemisia tridentata and Purshia tridentata, and in intershrub spaces (INTR). We found that B. tectorum seedling density in April was lower following deeper snowpack possibly due to delayed emergence, yet there was no change in spikelet production or biomass accumulation at the time of harvest. Additional spring rain events increased B. tectorum biomass and spikelet production in INTR plots only. Plants were primarily limited by water in 2009, but colimited by N and water in 2011, possibly due to differences in antecedent moisture conditions at the time of treatments. The threshold at which N had an effect varied with magnitude of water additions. Frequency of rain events was more influential than magnitude in driving B. tectorum growth and fecundity responses. Our results suggest that predicted shifts from snow to rain could facilitate expansion of B. tectorum at high elevation depending on timing of rain events and level of N deposition. We found evidence for P-limitation at this site and an increase in P-availability with N additions, suggesting that stoichiometric relationships may also influence B. tectorum spread.

  6. Global change effects on Bromus tectorum L. (Poaceae) at its high-elevation range margin.

    PubMed

    Concilio, Amy L; Loik, Michael E; Belnap, Jayne

    2013-01-01

    Global change is likely to affect invasive species distribution, especially at range margins. In the eastern Sierra Nevada, California, USA, the invasive annual grass, Bromus tectorum, is patchily distributed and its impacts have been minimal compared with other areas of the Intermountain West. We used a series of in situ field manipulations to determine how B. tectorum might respond to changing climatic conditions and increased nitrogen deposition at the high-elevation edge of its invaded range. Over 3 years, we used snow fences to simulate changes in snowpack, irrigation to simulate increased frequency and magnitude of springtime precipitation, and added nitrogen (N) at three levels (0, 5, and 10 g m(-2) ) to natural patches of B. tectorum growing under the two dominant shrubs, Artemisia tridentata and Purshia tridentata, and in intershrub spaces (INTR). We found that B. tectorum seedling density in April was lower following deeper snowpack possibly due to delayed emergence, yet there was no change in spikelet production or biomass accumulation at the time of harvest. Additional spring rain events increased B. tectorum biomass and spikelet production in INTR plots only. Plants were primarily limited by water in 2009, but colimited by N and water in 2011, possibly due to differences in antecedent moisture conditions at the time of treatments. The threshold at which N had an effect varied with magnitude of water additions. Frequency of rain events was more influential than magnitude in driving B. tectorum growth and fecundity responses. Our results suggest that predicted shifts from snow to rain could facilitate expansion of B. tectorum at high elevation depending on timing of rain events and level of N deposition. We found evidence for P-limitation at this site and an increase in P-availability with N additions, suggesting that stoichiometric relationships may also influence B. tectorum spread.

  7. Global Climate Change and Agriculture

    SciTech Connect

    Izaurralde, Roberto C.

    2009-01-01

    The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released in 2007 significantly increased our confidence about the role that humans play in forcing climate change. There is now a high degree of confidence that the (a) current atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) far exceed those of the pre-industrial era, (b) global increases in CO2 arise mainly from fossil fuel use and land use change while those of CH4 and N2O originate primarily from agricultural activities, and (c) the net effect of human activities since 1750 has led to a warming of the lower layers of the atmosphere, with an increased radiative forcing of 1.6 W m-2. Depending on the scenario of human population growth and global development, mean global temperatures could rise between 1.8 and 4.0 °C by the end of the 21st century.

  8. Global Climate Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hall, Dorothy K.

    1989-01-01

    Discusses recent changes in the Earth's climate. Summarizes reports on changes related to carbon dioxide, temperature, rain, sea level, and glaciers in polar areas. Describes the present effort to measure the changes. Lists 16 references. (YP)

  9. Perspectives on global change theory

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Global changes in ecological drivers, such as CO2 concentrations, climate, and nitrogen deposition, are increasingly recognized as key to understanding contemporary ecosystem dynamics, but a coherent theory of global change has not yet been developed. We outline the characteristics of a theory of gl...

  10. Chemical evidences of the effects of global change in high elevation lakes in Central Himalaya, Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tartari, Gianni; Lami, Andrea; Rogora, Michela; Salerno, Franco

    2016-04-01

    It is well known that the lakes integrate the pressure of their surrounding terrestrial environment and the climatic variability. Both the water column and sediments are capable to accumulate signals of global change, such as warming of the deep layers or mutation of diverse biological records (e.g., fossil diatoms) and the nutrient loads variability affecting the trophic state. Typically, the biological responses to climate change have been studied in several types of lakes, while documented changes in water chemistry are much rare. A long term study of 20 high altitude lakes located in central southern Himalaya (Mt Everest) conducted since the 90s has highlighted a general change in the chemical composition of the lake water: a substantial rise in the ionic content was observed, particularly pronounced in the case of sulphate. In a couple of these lakes, monitored on an annual basis, the sulphate concentrations increased over 4-fold. A change in the composition of atmospheric wet deposition, as well as a possible influence of decrease in seasonal snow cover duration, which could have exposed larger basin surfaces to alteration processes, were excluded. The chemical changes proved to be mainly related to the sulphide oxidation processes occurring in the bedrocks or the hydrographic basins. In particular, the oxidation processes, considered as the main factor causing the sulphate increase, occurred in subglacial environments characterized by higher glacier velocities causing higher glacier shrinkage. Associated to this mechanism, the exposure of fresh mineral surfaces to the atmosphere may have contributed also to increases in the alkalinity of lakes. Weakened monsoon of the past two decades may have partially contributed to the solute enrichment of the lakes through runoff waters. The almost synchronous response of the lakes studied, which differs in terms of the presence of glaciers in their basins, highlights the fact that the increasing ionic content of lake

  11. Soil management system for water conservation and mitigation of global change effect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ospina, A.; Florentino, A.; Lorenzo, V.

    2012-04-01

    One of the main constraints in rained agriculture is the water availability for plant growth which depends largely on the ability of the soil to allow water flow, infiltration and its storage. In Venezuela, the interaction between aggressive climatic conditions, highly susceptible soils and inadequate management systems have caused soil degradation which together with global change threatened the food production sustainability. To address this problem, we need to implement conservationist management strategies that improve infiltration rate, permeability and water holding capacity in soil and reduce water loss by protecting the soil surface. In order to study the impact of different management systems on soil water balance in a Fluventic Haplustept, the effects of 11 years of tillage and crops rotation management were evaluated in a long term field experiment located in Turén (Portuguesa state). The evaluated tillage systems were no tillage (NT) and conventional tillage (CT) and crop rotation treatments were maize (Zea mays)-cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) and maize-bean (Vigna unguiculata). Treatments were established in plots arranged in a randomized block design with three replicates. The gravimetric moisture content was determined in the upper 20 cm of soil, at eight different sampling dates. Results showed increased in time of the water availability with the use of tillage and corn-cotton rotation and, better protection of the soil against raindrop impact with crop residues. Water retention capacity also increased and improved structural condition on soil surface such as infiltration, storage and water flow distribution in the rooting zone. We conclude that these strategies of land use and management would contribute to mitigate the climate change effects on food production in this region of Venezuela. Key words: Soil quality; rained agriculture; plant water availability

  12. Global climatic change effects on irrigation requirements for the Central Great Plains

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Rising carbon dioxide and other green house gasses (water vapor, nitrous oxide, methane, etc.) are predicted to have an effect on future climates. These gasses impact crops and global and local weather. The carbon dioxide increase is generally considered to be favorable to agriculture as it increas...

  13. Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Franklin, Janet; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Regan, Helen M.

    2016-01-01

    Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this paper, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on a literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change. PMID:26929338

  14. Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics.

    PubMed

    Franklin, Janet; Serra-Diaz, Josep M; Syphard, Alexandra D; Regan, Helen M

    2016-04-05

    Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this paper, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on a literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change.

  15. Global Climatic Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Houghton, Richard A.; Woodwell, George M.

    1989-01-01

    Cites some of the evidence which suggests that the production of carbon dioxide and methane from human activities has begun to change the climate. Describes some measures which should be taken to stop or slow this progression. (RT)

  16. Global climate change and children's health.

    PubMed

    Shea, Katherine M

    2007-11-01

    There is a broad scientific consensus that the global climate is warming, the process is accelerating, and that human activities are very likely (>90% probability) the main cause. This warming will have effects on ecosystems and human health, many of them adverse. Children will experience both the direct and indirect effects of climate change. Actions taken by individuals, communities, businesses, and governments will affect the magnitude and rate of global climate change and resultant health impacts. This technical report reviews the nature of the global problem and anticipated health effects on children and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health.

  17. The Effect of Global Change on Surface Ozone and Reactive Nitrogen Concentrations: Implications for the Biosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hess, P. G.; Murazaki, K.; Emmons, L.; Lamarque, J.

    2005-12-01

    We simulated two ten year periods using the global chemical transport model MOZART-2 (Model of Ozone and Related chemical Tracers version 2): 1990-2000 and 2090-2100. In each case MOZART-2 is driven by meteorology from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) coupled Climate Systems Model (CSM) 1.0 forced with the (SRES) A1 scenario. Profound future changes in the summertime climate over the U.S. are found including changes in temperature, water vapor and clouds and the frequency of synoptic venting of the boundary layer. Even allowing for no changes in emissions in the future, the changes in climate alone drive a significant increase in the ozone concentration over the eastern U.S. (up to 5 ppbv on average) and an increase in the persistence of pollution events. Implications of these changes on the biosphere are assessed with and without allowing for the impact of climate on biogenic emissions. Furthermore the changes in climate alone cause large changes in the partitioning of NOy, decreasing PAN by over 20% over the U.S. Coupled with changes in precipitation; this induces significant changes in the deposition of nitrogen species to the biosphere in a future climate.

  18. [The effects of global climatic changes on bloodsucking ectoparasites and pathogens they transmit].

    PubMed

    Alekseev, A N

    2006-01-01

    The present global climatic changes, regardless of their causes and duration, are of paramount importance from the ecological perspective. The influence of these changes on Russian population health attracts the attention of experts. The most important changes have already taken place in the high and middle latitudes, occupied by Russia. The article covers a probable impact of global changes on the distribution of bloodsucking arthropods as the vectors of inoculable disease agents, their abundance and vector capacity, and the role of migratory birds in their spreading. For Russia, the most important is to forecast the condition of the population of gnats, malaria vectors in particular, as well as ticks, the latter group being the vectors of tickborne infections ranging from the Baltic Sea to the Pacific Ocean. Analysis of the changes in mean annual temperatures during the past century by the example of Minsk, an East European city, demonstrates its nearly 1.5-fold increase. Minsk in Belarus, as well as many big cities in Russia, such as St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg etc., present the so called "warm islands". Global increase in temperatures, winter ones first of all, especially in megapolises, leads to outbreaks of inoculable diseases transmitted by bloodsucking vectors in urbanized territories, with a noticeable north shift of their natural ranges. Recent epidemics of West Nile fever in New York City, USA, as well as in Krasnodar and Volgograd, Russia, can serve as examples. Increased mean summer temperatures, as well as prolonged warm and humid periods, facilitate malaria transmissions. The periods of possible successful transmission of tick-borne infections is prolonged likewise, with a north-west shift of their ranges. Thus, Japanese encephalitis outbreaks are expected in Russian Primorye and in the south of Sakhalin Island. Among known and still revealed tick-borne diseases, an increased role is going to be played by mixed viral as well as bacterial infections.

  19. GLOBAL CHANGE AND WATER RESOURCES

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The influence of global change on future water resources is difficult to predict because various components are likely to be affected in opposing ways. Global warming would tend to increase evapotranspiration (ET) rates and irrigation water requirements, while increasing precipitation would both dec...

  20. The effects of potential changes in United States beef production on global grazing systems and greenhouse gas emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dumortier, Jerome; Hayes, Dermot J.; Carriquiry, Miguel; Dong, Fengxia; Du, Xiaodong; Elobeid, Amani; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Martin, Pamela A.; Mulik, Kranti

    2012-06-01

    We couple a global agricultural production and trade model with a greenhouse gas model to assess leakage associated with modified beef production in the United States. The effects on emissions from agricultural production (i.e., methane and nitrous oxide emissions from livestock and crop management) as well as from land-use change, especially grazing system, are assessed. We find that a reduction of US beef production induces net carbon emissions from global land-use change ranging from 37 to 85 kg CO2-equivalent per kg of beef annualized over 20 years. The increase in emissions is caused by an inelastic domestic demand as well as more land-intensive cattle production systems internationally. Changes in livestock production systems such as increasing stocking rate could partially offset emission increases from pasture expansion. In addition, net emissions from enteric fermentation increase because methane emissions per kilogram of beef tend to be higher globally.

  1. [Effects of global climate change on the ecological characteristics and biogeochemical significance of marine viruses--A review].

    PubMed

    Yang, Yunlan; Cai, Lanlan; Zhang, Rui

    2015-09-04

    As the most abundance biological agents in the oceans, viruses can influence the physiological and ecological characteristics of host cells through viral infections and lysis, and affect the nutrient and energy cycles of the marine food chain. Thus, they are the major players in the ocean biogeochemical processes. The problems caused by global climate changes, such as sea-surface warming, acidification, nutrients availability, and deoxygenation, have the potential effects on marine viruses and subsequently their ecological and biogeochemical function in the ocean. Here, we reviewed the potential impacts of global climate change on the ecological characteristics (e. g. abundance, distribution, life cycle and the host-virus interactions) and biogeochemical significance (e. g. carbon cycling) of marine viruses. We proposed that marine viruses should not be ignored in the global climate change study.

  2. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory interests and capabilities for research on the ecological effects of global climatic and atmospheric change

    SciTech Connect

    Amthor, J.S.; Houpis, J.L.; Kercher, J.R.; Ledebuhr, A.; Miller, N.L.; Penner, J.E.; Robison, W.L.; Taylor, K.E.

    1994-09-01

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has interests and capabilities in all three types of research that must be conducted in order to understand and predict effects of global atmospheric and climatic (i.e., environmental) changes on ecological systems and their functions (ecosystem function is perhaps most conveniently defined as mass and energy exchange and storage). These three types of research are: (1) manipulative experiments with plants and ecosystems; (2) monitoring of present ecosystem, landscape, and global exchanges and pools of energy, elements, and compounds that play important roles in ecosystem function or the physical climate system, and (3) mechanistic (i.e., hierarchic and explanatory) modeling of plant and ecosystem responses to global environmental change. Specific experimental programs, monitoring plans, and modeling activities related to evaluation of ecological effects of global environmental change that are of interest to, and that can be carried out by LLNL scientists are outlined. Several projects have the distinction of integrating modeling with empirical studies resulting in an Integrated Product (a model or set of models) that DOE or any federal policy maker could use to assess ecological effects. The authors note that any scheme for evaluating ecological effects of atmospheric and climatic change should take into account exceptional or sensitive species, in particular, rare, threatened, or endangered species.

  3. Global Climate Change Effects on Venezuela's Vulnerability to Chagas Disease is Linked to the Geographic Distribution of Five Triatomine Species.

    PubMed

    Ceccarelli, Soledad; Rabinovich, Jorge E

    2015-11-01

    We analyzed the possible effects of global climate change on the potential geographic distribution in Venezuela of five species of triatomines (Eratyrus mucronatus (Stal, 1859), Panstrongylus geniculatus (Latreille, 1811), Rhodnius prolixus (Stål, 1859), Rhodnius robustus (Larrousse, 1927), and Triatoma maculata (Erichson, 1848)), vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas disease. To obtain the future potential geographic distributions, expressed as climatic niche suitability, we modeled the presences of these species using two IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) future emission scenarios of global climate change (A1B and B1), the Global Climate model CSIRO Mark 3.0, and three periods of future projections (years 2020, 2060, and 2080). After estimating with the MaxEnt software the future climatic niche suitability for each species, scenario, and period of future projections, we estimated a series of indexes of Venezuela's vulnerability at the county, state, and country level, measured as the number of people exposed due to the changes in the geographical distribution of the five triatomine species analyzed. Despite that this is not a measure of the risk of Chagas disease transmission, we conclude that possible future effects of global climate change on the Venezuelan population vulnerability show a slightly decreasing trend, even taking into account future population growth; we can expect fewer locations in Venezuela where an average Venezuelan citizen would be exposed to triatomines in the next 50-70 yr.

  4. State - Level Regulation's Effectiveness in Addressing Global Climate Change and Promoting Solar Energy Deployment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peterman, Carla Joy

    Paper 1, Local Solutions to Global Problems: Climate Change Policies and Regulatory Jurisdiction, considers the efficacy of various types of environmental regulations when they are applied locally to pollutants whose damages extend beyond the jurisdiction of the local regulators. Local regulations of a global pollutant may be ineffective if producers and consumers can avoid them by transacting outside the reach of the local regulator. In many cases, this may involve the physical relocation of the economic activity, a problem often referred to as "leakage." This paper highlights another way in which local policies can be circumvented: through the shuffling of who buys from whom. The paper maintains that the problems of reshuffling are exacerbated when the options for compliance with the regulations are more flexible. Numerical analyses is presented demonstrating that several proposed policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions from the California electricity sector may have very little effect on carbon emissions if they are applied only within that state. Paper 1 concludes that although local subsidies for energy efficiency, renewable electricity, and transportation biofuels constitute attempts to pick technology winners, they may be the only mechanisms that local jurisdictions, acting alone, have at their disposal to address climate change. Paper 2, Pass-Through of Solar PV Incentives to Consumers: The Early Years of California's Solar PV Incentives, examines the pass through of incentives to California solar PV system owners. The full post-subsidy price consumers pay for solar power is a key metric of the success of solar PV incentive programs and of overall PV market performance. This study examines the early years of California's most recent wave of distributed solar PV incentives (2000-2008) to determine the pass-through of incentives. Examination of this period is both intellectually and pragmatically important due to the high level of incentives provided and

  5. Global environmental change effects on ecosystems: the importance of land-use legacies.

    PubMed

    Perring, Michael P; De Frenne, Pieter; Baeten, Lander; Maes, Sybryn L; Depauw, Leen; Blondeel, Haben; Carón, María M; Verheyen, Kris

    2016-04-01

    One of the major challenges in ecology is to predict how multiple global environmental changes will affect future ecosystem patterns (e.g. plant community composition) and processes (e.g. nutrient cycling). Here, we highlight arguments for the necessary inclusion of land-use legacies in this endeavour. Alterations in resources and conditions engendered by previous land use, together with influences on plant community processes such as dispersal, selection, drift and speciation, have steered communities and ecosystem functions onto trajectories of change. These trajectories may be modulated by contemporary environmental changes such as climate warming and nitrogen deposition. We performed a literature review which suggests that these potential interactions have rarely been investigated. This crucial oversight is potentially due to an assumption that knowledge of the contemporary state allows accurate projection into the future. Lessons from other complex dynamic systems, and the recent recognition of the importance of previous conditions in explaining contemporary and future ecosystem properties, demand the testing of this assumption. Vegetation resurvey databases across gradients of land use and environmental change, complemented by rigorous experiments, offer a means to test for interactions between land-use legacies and multiple environmental changes. Implementing these tests in the context of a trait-based framework will allow biologists to synthesize compositional and functional ecosystem responses. This will further our understanding of the importance of land-use legacies in determining future ecosystem properties, and soundly inform conservation and restoration management actions.

  6. Teaching about Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heffron, Susan Gallagher; Valmond, Kharra

    2011-01-01

    Students are exposed to many different media reports about global climate change. Movies such as "The Day After Tomorrow" and "Ice Age" are examples of instances when movie producers have sought to capture the attention of audiences by augmenting the challenges that climate change poses. Students may receive information from a wide range of media…

  7. Perspectives on global change theory

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Human-caused global changes in ecological drivers, such as carbon dioxide concentrations, climate, and nitrogen deposition, as well as direct human impacts (land use change, species movements and extinctions, etc.) are increasingly recognized as key to understanding contemporary ecosystem dynamics, ...

  8. Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is an integrated assessment model that links the world's energy, agriculture and land use systems with a climate model. The model is designed to assess various climate change policies and technology strategies for the globe over long tim...

  9. Greenland and Antarctica Ice Sheet Mass Changes and Effects on Global Sea Level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forsberg, Rene; Sørensen, Louise; Simonsen, Sebastian

    2017-01-01

    Thirteen years of GRACE data provide an excellent picture of the current mass changes of Greenland and Antarctica, with mass loss in the GRACE period 2002-2015 amounting to 265 ± 25 GT/year for Greenland (including peripheral ice caps), and 95 ± 50 GT/year for Antarctica, corresponding to 0.72 and 0.26 mm/year average global sea level change. A significant acceleration in mass loss rate is found, especially for Antarctica, while Greenland mass loss, after a corresponding acceleration period, and a record mass loss in the summer of 2012, has seen a slight decrease in short-term mass loss trend. The yearly mass balance estimates, based on point mass inversion methods, have relatively large errors, both due to uncertainties in the glacial isostatic adjustment processes, especially for Antarctica, leakage from unmodelled ocean mass changes, and (for Greenland) difficulties in separating mass signals from the Greenland ice sheet and the adjacent Canadian ice caps. The limited resolution of GRACE affects the uncertainty of total mass loss to a smaller degree; we illustrate the "real" sources of mass changes by including satellite altimetry elevation change results in a joint inversion with GRACE, showing that mass change occurs primarily associated with major outlet glaciers, as well as a narrow coastal band. For Antarctica, the primary changes are associated with the major outlet glaciers in West Antarctica (Pine Island and Thwaites Glacier systems), as well as on the Antarctic Peninsula, where major glacier accelerations have been observed after the 2002 collapse of the Larsen B Ice Shelf.

  10. Global Economic Exposure to Future Temperature Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsiang, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    In global-scale analyses of future climate change, "global average temperature change" is a commonly used summary statistic. Unfortunately, this statistic may not be useful for many types of economic analyses because it is an average over the planet's entire surface and is therefore dominated by changes over oceans and other uninhabited regions. Here, we attempt to summarize projected temperature changes in a manner that is more useful for economic analyses: we construct the distributions of future temperature exposure for a randomly selected person, a random hectare of cropland, and a random dollar of value-added. Our results streamline global cost analyses, enabling future studies to estimate global losses by combining their locally derived loss-functions with our estimates of global exposure. We demonstrate this application by estimating that low and middle income populations may suffer income losses of 9% annually due only to the effects of thermal stress on workers, a mechanism previously omitted from global cost estimates. In ancillary findings, we also document that (1) when exposure distributions are substituted for global average temperature change in standard models of economic costs, projected annual losses increase by trillions of dollars; (2) low and middle income populations will be twice as exposed to harmful temperatures as high income populations, based only on their locations; and (3) it is unlikely the direct effects of warming can have a positive net impact on the global economy.

  11. Global change: Acronyms and abbreviations

    SciTech Connect

    Woodard, C.T.; Stoss, F.W.

    1995-05-01

    This list of acronyms and abbreviations is compiled to provide the user with a ready reference to dicipher the linguistic initialisms and abridgements for the study of global change. The terms included in this first edition were selected from a wide variety of sources: technical reports, policy documents, global change program announcements, newsletters, and other periodicals. The disciplinary interests covered by this document include agriculture, atmospheric science, ecology, environmental science, oceanography, policy science, and other fields. In addition to its availability in hard copy, the list of acronyms and abbreviations is available in DOS-formatted diskettes and through CDIAC`s anonymous File Transfer Protocol (FTP) area on the Internet.

  12. Asia's changing role in global climate change.

    PubMed

    Siddiqi, Toufiq A

    2008-10-01

    Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.

  13. Global Change Education Resource Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mortensen, Lynn L., Ed.

    This guide is intended as an aid to educators who conduct programs and activities on climate and global change issues for a variety of audiences. The selected set of currently available materials are appropriate for both formal and informal programs in environmental education and can help frame and clarify some of the key issues associated with…

  14. Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web.

    PubMed

    Niiranen, Susa; Yletyinen, Johanna; Tomczak, Maciej T; Blenckner, Thorsten; Hjerne, Olle; Mackenzie, Brian R; Müller-Karulis, Bärbel; Neumann, Thomas; Meier, H E Markus

    2013-11-01

    Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large-scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed to persistent eutrophication, intensive fishing, and one of the world's fastest rates of warming in the last two decades of the 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric warming and changes in precipitation is projected for this region during the 21st century. Here, we used a new multimodel approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient-climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21st century, for example, the combination of intensive cod fishing and high nutrient loads projected a strongly eutrophicated and sprat-dominated ecosystem, whereas low cod fishing in combination with low nutrient loads resulted in a cod-dominated ecosystem with eutrophication levels close to present. Also, nonlinearities were observed in the sensitivity of different trophic groups to nutrient loads or fishing depending on the combination of the two. Finally, many climate variables and species biomasses were projected to levels unseen in the past. Hence, the risk for ecological surprises needs to be addressed, particularly when the results are discussed in the ecosystem-based management context.

  15. Global-mean temperature change from shipping toward 2050: improved representation of the indirect aerosol effect in simple climate models.

    PubMed

    Lund, Marianne Tronstad; Eyring, Veronika; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Hendricks, Johannes; Lauer, Axel; Lee, David; Righi, Mattia

    2012-08-21

    We utilize a range of emission scenarios for shipping to determine the induced global-mean radiative forcing and temperature change. Ship emission scenarios consistent with the new regulations on nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) and sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) from the International Maritime Organization and two of the Representative Concentration Pathways are used as input to a simple climate model (SCM). Based on a complex aerosol-climate model we develop and test new parametrizations of the indirect aerosol effect (IAE) in the SCM that account for nonlinearities in radiative forcing of ship-induced IAE. We find that shipping causes a net global cooling impact throughout the period 1900-2050 across all parametrizations and scenarios. However, calculated total net global-mean temperature change in 2050 ranges from -0.03[-0.07,-0.002]°C to -0.3[-0.6,-0.2]°C in the A1B scenario. This wide range across parametrizations emphasizes the importance of properly representing the IAE in SCMs and to reflect the uncertainties from complex global models. Furthermore, our calculations show that the future ship-induced temperature response is likely a continued cooling if SO(2) and NO(x) emissions continue to increase due to a strong increase in activity, despite current emission regulations. However, such cooling does not negate the need for continued efforts to reduce CO(2) emissions, since residual warming from CO(2) is long-lived.

  16. Historical change in fish species distribution: shifting reference conditions and global warming effects.

    PubMed

    Pont, Didier; Logez, M; Carrel, G; Rogers, C; Haidvogl, G

    Species distributions models (SDM) that rely on estimated relationships between present environmental conditions and species presence-absence are widely used to forecast changes of species distributions caused by global warming but far less to reconstruct historical assemblages. By compiling historical fish data from the turn to the middle of the twentieth century in a similar way for several European catchments (Rhône, Danube), and using already published SDMs based on current observations, we: (1) tested the predictive accuracy of such models for past climatic conditions, (2) compared observed and expected cumulated historical species occurrences at sub-catchment level, and (3) compared the annual variability in the predictions within one sub-catchment (Salzach) under a future climate scenario to the long-term variability of occurrences reconstructed during an extended historical period (1800-2000). We finally discuss the potential of these SDMs to define a "reference condition", the possibility of a shift in baseline condition in relation with anthropogenic pressures, and past and future climate variability. The results of this study clearly highlight the potential of SDM to reconstruct the past composition of European fish assemblages and to analyze the historical ecological status of European rivers. Assessing the uncertainty associated with species distribution projections is of primary importance before evaluating and comparing the past and future distribution of species within a given catchment.

  17. The Effect of Hurricanes on Annual Precipitation in Maryland and the Connection to Global Climate Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, Jackie; Liu, Zhong

    2015-01-01

    Precipitation is a vital aspect of our lives droughts, floods and other related disasters that involve precipitation can cause costly damage in the economic system and general society. Purpose of this project is to determine what, if any effect do hurricanes have on annual precipitation in Maryland Research will be conducted on Marylands terrain, climatology, annual precipitation, and precipitation contributed from hurricanes Possible connections to climate change

  18. Scientific linkages in global change

    SciTech Connect

    Jutro, P.R.; Worrest, R.C.; Janetos, A.C.

    1989-06-16

    In the atmosphere, certain trace gases both promote global warming and deplete the ozone layer. The primary radiatively active trace gases that affect global warming are carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, methane, and tropospheric ozone. In the troposphere, the atmosphere up to 10 miles above the earth's surface, these compounds function as greenhouse gases. Many of these gases also influence the concentration of ozone in the stratosphere, the atmospheric layer located between 10-30 miles above the earth's surface. The diffuse layer of ozone in the stratosphere protects life on earth from harmful solar radiation. A reduction of the layer could have very important impacts on the earth's systems. Interactions exist in various ecological processes as well. Physical, chemical, and biological activities of plants and animals are affected directly by global climate change and by increased ultraviolet radiation resulting from depletion of stratospheric ozone.

  19. Future battlegrounds for conservation under global change

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Tien Ming; Jetz, Walter

    2008-01-01

    Global biodiversity is under significant threat from the combined effects of human-induced climate and land-use change. Covering 12% of the Earth's terrestrial surface, protected areas are crucial for conserving biodiversity and supporting ecological processes beneficial to human well-being, but their selection and design are usually uninformed about future global change. Here, we quantify the exposure of the global reserve network to projected climate and land-use change according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and set these threats in relation to the conservation value and capacity of biogeographic and geopolitical regions. We find that geographical patterns of past human impact on the land cover only poorly predict those of forecasted change, thus revealing the inadequacy of existing global conservation prioritization templates. Projected conservation risk, measured as regional levels of land-cover change in relation to area protected, is the greatest at high latitudes (due to climate change) and tropics/subtropics (due to land-use change). Only some high-latitude nations prone to high conservation risk are also of high conservation value, but their high relative wealth may facilitate additional conservation efforts. In contrast, most low-latitude nations tend to be of high conservation value, but they often have limited capacity for conservation which may exacerbate the global biodiversity extinction crisis. While our approach will clearly benefit from improved land-cover projections and a thorough understanding of how species range will shift under climate change, our results provide a first global quantitative demonstration of the urgent need to consider future environmental change in reserve-based conservation planning. They further highlight the pressing need for new reserves in target regions and support a much extended ‘north–south’ transfer of conservation resources that maximizes biodiversity conservation while mitigating global climate

  20. Future battlegrounds for conservation under global change.

    PubMed

    Lee, Tien Ming; Jetz, Walter

    2008-06-07

    Global biodiversity is under significant threat from the combined effects of human-induced climate and land-use change. Covering 12% of the Earth's terrestrial surface, protected areas are crucial for conserving biodiversity and supporting ecological processes beneficial to human well-being, but their selection and design are usually uninformed about future global change. Here, we quantify the exposure of the global reserve network to projected climate and land-use change according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and set these threats in relation to the conservation value and capacity of biogeographic and geopolitical regions. We find that geographical patterns of past human impact on the land cover only poorly predict those of forecasted change, thus revealing the inadequacy of existing global conservation prioritization templates. Projected conservation risk, measured as regional levels of land-cover change in relation to area protected, is the greatest at high latitudes (due to climate change) and tropics/subtropics (due to land-use change). Only some high-latitude nations prone to high conservation risk are also of high conservation value, but their high relative wealth may facilitate additional conservation efforts. In contrast, most low-latitude nations tend to be of high conservation value, but they often have limited capacity for conservation which may exacerbate the global biodiversity extinction crisis. While our approach will clearly benefit from improved land-cover projections and a thorough understanding of how species range will shift under climate change, our results provide a first global quantitative demonstration of the urgent need to consider future environmental change in reserve-based conservation planning. They further highlight the pressing need for new reserves in target regions and support a much extended 'north-south' transfer of conservation resources that maximizes biodiversity conservation while mitigating global climate change.

  1. Effects of UV-B and global climate change on rice production: The EPA/IRRI Cooperative Research Plan

    SciTech Connect

    Olszyk, D.M.; Ingram, K.T.

    1990-01-01

    The US Environmental Protection Agency and International Rice Research Institute are initiating a cooperative program on the effects of UV-B and global climate change (increased CO{sub 2} and temperature) on rice. Rice is the world's most important food crop and responds both to UV-B and climate change. The project will determine: (1) the effects of these stresses on the rice ecosystem, (2) the extent and intensity of those effects for Asia, (3) the importance of the rice ecosystem as a source of biogenic emissions such as methane and the impacts of environmental stress on those emissions, and (4) mitigation/adaptation options available to reduce any effects on rice yields and biogenic emissions.

  2. GeoChange Global Change Data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    ,

    1997-01-01

    GeoChange is an online data system providing access to research results and data generated by the U.S. Geological Survey's Global Change Research Program. Researchers in this program study climate history and the causes of climatic variations, as well as providing baseline data sets on contemporary atmospheric chemistry, high-resolution meteorology, and dust deposition. Research results are packaged as data sets, groups of digital files containing scientific observations, documentation, and interpretation. The data sets are arranged in a consistent manner using standard file formats so that users of a variety of computer systems can access and use them.

  3. Local effects of global climate change on the urban drainage system of Hamburg.

    PubMed

    Krieger, Klaus; Kuchenbecker, Andreas; Hüffmeyer, Nina; Verworn, Hans-Reinhard

    2013-01-01

    The Hamburg Water Group owns and operates a sewer network with a total length of more than 5,700 km. There has been increasing attention paid to the possible impacts of predicted changes in precipitation patterns on the sewer network infrastructure. The primary objective of the work presented in this paper is an estimation of the hydraulic impacts of climate change on the Hamburg drainage system. As a first step, simulated rainfalls based on the regional climate model REMO were compared and validated with long-term precipitation measurements. In the second step, the hydraulic effects on the sewer network of Hamburg have been analyzed based on simulated long-term rainfall series for the period of 2000-2100. Simulation results show a significant increase in combined sewer overflows by 50% as well as an increase in surcharges of storm sewer manholes. However, there is still a substantial amount of uncertainty resulting from model uncertainty and unknown development of future greenhouse gas emissions. So far, there seems to be no sound basis for the implementation of an overall climate factor for sewer dimensioning for the Hamburg region. Nevertheless, possible effects of climate change should be taken into account within the planning process for major sewer extensions or modifications.

  4. Global change and terrestrial hydrology - A review

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dickinson, Robert E.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reviews the role of terrestrial hydrology in determining the coupling between the surface and atmosphere. Present experience with interactive numerical simulation is discussed and approaches to the inclusion of land hydrology in global climate models ae considered. At present, a wide range of answers as to expected changes in surface hydrology is given by nominally similar models. Studies of the effects of tropical deforestation and global warming illustrate this point.

  5. Global climate change and pedogenic carbonates

    SciTech Connect

    Lal, R.; Kimble, J.M.; Stewart, B.A.; Eswaran, H.

    1999-11-01

    Global Climate Change summarizes what is known about soil inorganic carbon and develops strategies that could lead to the retention of more carbon in the soil. It covers basic concepts, analytical methods, secondary carbonates, and research and development priorities. With this book one will get a better understanding of the global carbon cycle, organic and inorganic carbon, and their roles, or what is known of them, in the greenhouse effect.

  6. Global climate change and international security

    SciTech Connect

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  7. Cellular effects of fluorodeoxyglucose: Global changes in the lipidome and alteration in intracellular transport

    PubMed Central

    Kavaliauskiene, Simona; Torgersen, Maria Lyngaas; Lingelem, Anne Berit Dyve; Klokk, Tove Irene; Lintonen, Tuulia; Simolin, Helena; Ekroos, Kim; Skotland, Tore; Sandvig, Kirsten

    2016-01-01

    2-fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose (FDG), labeled with 18F radioisotope, is the most common imaging agent used for positron emission tomography (PET) in oncology. However, little is known about the cellular effects of FDG. Another glucose analogue, 2-deoxy-D-glucose (2DG), has been shown to affect many cellular functions, including intracellular transport and lipid metabolism, and has been found to improve the efficacy of cancer chemotherapeutic agents in vivo. Thus, in the present study, we have investigated cellular effects of FDG with the focus on changes in cellular lipids and intracellular transport. By quantifying more than 200 lipids from 17 different lipid classes in HEp-2 cells and by analyzing glycosphingolipids from MCF-7, HT-29 and HBMEC cells, we have discovered that FDG treatment inhibits glucosylceramide synthesis and thus reduces cellular levels of glycosphingolipids. In addition, in HEp-2 cells the levels and/or species composition of other lipid classes, namely diacylglycerols, phosphatidic acids and phosphatidylinositols, were found to change upon treatment with FDG. Furthermore, we show here that FDG inhibits retrograde Shiga toxin transport and is much more efficient in protecting cells against the toxin than 2DG. In summary, our data reveal novel effects of FDG on cellular transport and glycosphingolipid metabolism, which suggest a potential clinical application of FDG as an adjuvant for cancer chemotherapy. PMID:27829218

  8. Deep solar minimum and global climate changes.

    PubMed

    Hady, Ahmed A

    2013-05-01

    This paper examines the deep minimum of solar cycle 23 and its potential impact on climate change. In addition, a source region of the solar winds at solar activity minimum, especially in the solar cycle 23, the deepest during the last 500 years, has been studied. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary solar activity are so weak and hence expected to cause global cooling. Prevalent global warming, caused by building-up of green-house gases in the troposphere, seems to exceed this solar effect. This paper discusses this issue.

  9. Climate change and the global malaria recession.

    PubMed

    Gething, Peter W; Smith, David L; Patil, Anand P; Tatem, Andrew J; Snow, Robert W; Hay, Simon I

    2010-05-20

    The current and potential future impact of climate change on malaria is of major public health interest. The proposed effects of rising global temperatures on the future spread and intensification of the disease, and on existing malaria morbidity and mortality rates, substantively influence global health policy. The contemporary spatial limits of Plasmodium falciparum malaria and its endemicity within this range, when compared with comparable historical maps, offer unique insights into the changing global epidemiology of malaria over the last century. It has long been known that the range of malaria has contracted through a century of economic development and disease control. Here, for the first time, we quantify this contraction and the global decreases in malaria endemicity since approximately 1900. We compare the magnitude of these changes to the size of effects on malaria endemicity proposed under future climate scenarios and associated with widely used public health interventions. Our findings have two key and often ignored implications with respect to climate change and malaria. First, widespread claims that rising mean temperatures have already led to increases in worldwide malaria morbidity and mortality are largely at odds with observed decreasing global trends in both its endemicity and geographic extent. Second, the proposed future effects of rising temperatures on endemicity are at least one order of magnitude smaller than changes observed since about 1900 and up to two orders of magnitude smaller than those that can be achieved by the effective scale-up of key control measures. Predictions of an intensification of malaria in a warmer world, based on extrapolated empirical relationships or biological mechanisms, must be set against a context of a century of warming that has seen marked global declines in the disease and a substantial weakening of the global correlation between malaria endemicity and climate.

  10. Interactive effects of global and regional change on a coastal ecosystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reise, Karsten; van Beusekom, Justus E. E.

    2008-03-01

    Shallow waters and lowland meet at the same level in the Wadden Sea, but are separated by walls of coastal defense. What are the prospects of this coastal ecosystem in a warmer world? We focus on tidal waters and inshore sedimentary bottoms, expect nutrient supply from land to decline and species introductions, temperature and sea level to rise. The effects are interrelated and will have an increasing likelihood of abrupt and irreversible developments. The biotic interactions are hardly predictable but we anticipate the following changes to be more likely than others: blooms of phytoplankton will be weak mainly because of increasing pelagic and benthic grazing pressure, both facilitated by warming. Possibly birds feeding on mollusks will encounter decreasing resource availability while fish-eaters benefit. Extensive reefs of Pacific oysters could facilitate aquatic macrophytes. Sea level rise and concomitant hydrodynamics above tidal flats favor well-anchored suspension feeders as well as burrowing fauna adapted to dynamic permeable sand. With high shares of immigrants from overseas and the south, species richness will increase; yet the ecosystem stability may become lower. We suggest that for the next decades invasions of introduced species followed by warming and declining nutrient supply will be the most pressing factor on the changes in the Wadden Sea ecosystem, and the effects of sea level rise to be the key issue on the scale of the whole century and beyond.

  11. Information technology and global change science

    SciTech Connect

    Baxter, F.P.

    1990-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to identify and briefly describe major existing and near term information technologies that cold have a positive impact on the topics being discussed at this conference by helping to manage the data of global change science and helping global change scientists conduct their research. Desktop computer systems have changed dramatically during the past seven years. Faster data processing can be expected in the future through full development of traditional serial computer architectures. Some other proven information technologies may be currently underutilized by global change scientists. Relational database management systems and good organization of data through the use of thoughtful database design would enable the scientific community to better share and maintain quality research data. Custodians of the data should use rigorous data administration to ensure integrity and long term value of the data resource. Still other emerging information technologies that involve the use of artificial intelligence, parallel computer architectures, and new sensors for data collection will be in relatively common use in the near term and should become part of the global science community's technical toolkit. Consideration should also be given to the establishment of Information Analysis Centers to facilitate effective organization and management of interdisciplinary data and the prototype testing and use of advanced information technology to facilitate rapid and cost-effective integration of these tools into global change science. 8 refs.

  12. A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Leung, L. Ruby

    2015-09-01

    This study investigates the effects of irrigation on global water resources by performing and analyzing Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) simulations driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs). For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were performed: (1) a CTRL experiment in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an IRRIG experiment in which the irrigation module is activated using surface water (SW) to feed irrigation; and (3) a PUMP experiment in which a groundwater pumping scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated for conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater (GW) for irrigation. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping are calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based water use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major effects: SW (GW) depletion in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW (GW), respectively. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions, suggesting increased vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century, combined effect of increased irrigation water demand and amplified temporal-spatial variability of water supply may lead to severe local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate/alleviate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although such effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our study highlights the need to account for irrigation effects and sources in assessing regional climate change impacts.

  13. Interpreting the rich-get-richer effect in precipitation change under global warming: issues at monsoon scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neelin, J.; Langenbrunner, B.; Meyerson, J. E.

    2012-12-01

    Precipitation changes under global warming are often discussed in terms of wet areas receiving more precipitation and dry areas receiving less, sometimes termed the "rich-get-richer" effect. Since the first use of this term, it has been known that contributions can be broken diagnostically into a relatively straightforward tendency associated with moisture increases acted on by the climatological circulation and dynamical feedbacks associated with changes in circulation. A number of studies indicate the latter to be prone to yield scatter in model projections of precipitation change. At the spatial scales of the major monsoon regions, substantial contributions from dynamical feedbacks tend to occur. Factors affecting this dependence will be reviewed with an eye to asking how the community can make succinct statements without oversimplifying the challenges at the regional scale.

  14. Stormy Weather: 101 Solutions to Global Climate Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dauncey, Guy

    This document presents 101 solutions to global climate change. These solutions are actions that are well suited to every level of society. This book creates awareness about global climate change. The history of Earth and the greenhouse effect are discussed, and explanations and solutions to global climate change are provided including traveling…

  15. Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

    PubMed

    Ahdoot, Samantha; Pacheco, Susan E

    2015-11-01

    Rising global temperature is causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes across the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as climate change, are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security. Children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters, increased heat stress, decreased air quality, altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections, and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. Prompt implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies will protect children against worsening of the problem and its associated health effects. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health.

  16. Global climate change and US agriculture

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adams, Richard M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Peart, Robert M.; Ritchie, Joe T.; Mccarl, Bruce A.

    1990-01-01

    Agricultural productivity is expected to be sensitive to global climate change. Models from atmospheric science, plant science, and agricultural economics are linked to explore this sensitivity. Although the results depend on the severity of climate change and the compensating effects of carbon dioxide on crop yields, the simulation suggests that irrigated acreage will expand and regional patterns of U.S. agriculture will shift. The impact of the U.S. economy strongly depends on which climate model is used.

  17. Global climate change and infectious diseases

    SciTech Connect

    Shope, R. )

    1991-12-01

    The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward and have more rapid metamorphosis with global warming. These mosquitoes transmit dengue virus, and Aedes aegypti transmits yellow fever virus. The faster metamorphosis and a shorter extrinsic incubation of dengue and yellow fever viruses could lead to epidemics in North America. Vibrio cholera is harbored persistently in the estuaries of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Over the past 200 years, cholera has become pandemic seven times with spread from Asia to Europe, Africa, and North America. Global warming may lead to changes in water ecology that could enhance similar spread of cholera in North America. Some other infectious diseases such as LaCrosse encephalitis and Lyme disease are caused by agents closely dependent on the integrity of their environment. These diseases may become less prominent with global warming because of anticipated modification of their habitats. Ecological studies will help as to understand more fully the possible consequences of global warming. New and more effective methods for control of vectors will be needed. 12 refs., 1 tab.

  18. Global climate change and infectious diseases.

    PubMed Central

    Shope, R

    1991-01-01

    The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward and have more rapid metamorphosis with global warming. These mosquitoes transmit dengue virus, and Aedes aegypti transmits yellow fever virus. The faster metamorphosis and a shorter extrinsic incubation of dengue and yellow fever viruses could lead to epidemics in North America. Vibrio cholerae is harbored persistently in the estuaries of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Over the past 200 years, cholera has become pandemic seven times with spread from Asia to Europe, Africa, and North America. Global warming may lead to changes in water ecology that could enhance similar spread of cholera in North America. Some other infectious diseases such as LaCrosse encephalitis and Lyme disease are caused by agents closely dependent on the integrity of their environment. These diseases may become less prominent with global warming because of anticipated modification of their habitats. Ecological studies will help us to understand more fully the possible consequences of global warming. New and more effective methods for control of vectors will be needed. PMID:1820262

  19. Global change integrating factors: Tropical tropopause trends

    SciTech Connect

    Reck, R.A.

    1994-10-01

    This research proposes new criteria, shifts in the height and temperature of the tropical tropopause, as measures of global climate change. The search for signs of global warming in the temperature signal near the earth`s surface is extremely difficult, largely because numerous factors contribute to surface temperature forcing with only a small signal-to-noise ratio relative to long-term effects. In the long term, no part of the atmosphere can be considered individually because the evolution will be a function of all states of all portions. A large surface greenhouse signal might ultimately be expected, but the analysis of surface temperature may not be particularly useful for early detection. What is suggested here is not an analysis of trends in the surface temperature field or any of its spatial averages, but rather an integrating factor or integrator, a single measure of global change that could be considered a test of significant change for the entire global system. Preferably, this global change integrator would vary slowly and would take into account many of the causes of climate change, with a relatively large signal-to-noise ratio. Such an integrator could be monitored, and abrupt or accelerated changes could serve as an early warning signal for policy makers and the public. Earlier work has suggested that temperature has much less short-term and small-scale noise in the lower stratosphere, and thus the global warming signal at that level might be more easily deconvoluted, because the cooling rate near the 200-mb level is almost constant with latitude. A study of the temperature signal at this pressure level might show a clearer trend due to increased levels of greenhouse gases, but it would yield information about the troposphere only by inference.

  20. Global Warming and Climate Change Science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jain, Atul

    2008-03-01

    Global climate change has emerged as a major scientific and political issue within a few short decades. Scientific evidence clearly indicates that this change is a result of a complex interplay between a number of human-related and natural earth systems. While the complexity of the earth-ocean-atmosphere system makes the understanding and prediction of global climate change very difficult, improved scientific knowledge and research capabilities are advancing our understanding of global climate change resulting from rising atmospheric levels of radiatively important (mostly heat-trapping) gases and particles. The effects of climate change can be assessed with climate models, which account for complex physical, chemical and biological processes, and interactions of these processes with human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels along with land use changes. This presentation begins with a discussion of the current understanding of the concerns about climate change, and then discusses the role climate models in scientific projections of climate change as well as their current strengths and weaknesses.

  1. Main and interactive effects of multiple global-change factors on soil respiration and its components: a meta-analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Xuhui

    2014-05-01

    Global change usually involves simultaneous changes in multiple environmental factors, which may considerably affect ecosystem structure and functioning and alter ecosystem services to human society. With increased awareness of their potential interactions, some multi-factorial studies have been conducted to investigate their main and interactive effects on carbon (C) cycling in terrestrial ecosystem. However, how multiple global-change factors affected soil respiration (Rs) and its components (i.e., autotrophic (Ra) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh)) remains controversial among individual studies. In this study, we conducted a meta-analysis to examine the main and possible 2- or 3-factor interactive effects with warming (W), elevated CO2 (E), nitrogen addition (N), increased precipitation (I) and drought (D) on Rs and its components from 150 published papers. Our results show that E, W, I and N significantly stimulated Rs by 29.23%, 7.19%, 22.95%, and 16.90% (p<0.05), respectively, while I depressed it by 16.90% (p<0.01). E consistently induced a significant positive effect on both Ra and Rh, while I affected them with an opposite trend. Among nine two-way interactive effects on Rs, synergistic interaction (i.e., the effect of combined treatment > the additive effects of single two main factors) occurred in E×N, E×W, I×N, and D×W, while neutral interaction (i.e., the effect of combined treatment ≡ the additive one) and antagonistic interaction (i.e., the effect of combined treatment < the additive one)was rare, only in I×W for neutral one and in N×W and I×E for the latter. In addition, E×W and E×N displayed synergistic interactions on Rh. The more dominance of synergistic interactions in two-way interactive effects on Rs and Rh may determine a central positive tendency of Rs in future, and affect the feedback of terrestrial C cycle to the climate system correspondingly.

  2. Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

    PubMed

    2015-11-01

    Rising global temperatures are causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes in the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as "climate change," are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security, and children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include: physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters; increased heat stress; decreased air quality; altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections; and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. The social foundations of children's mental and physical health are threatened by the specter of far-reaching effects of unchecked climate change, including community and global instability, mass migrations, and increased conflict. Given this knowledge, failure to take prompt, substantive action would be an act of injustice to all children. A paradigm shift in production and consumption of energy is both a necessity and an opportunity for major innovation, job creation, and significant, immediate associated health benefits. Pediatricians have a uniquely valuable role to play in the societal response to this global challenge.

  3. Global Climate Change Pilot Course Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schuenemann, K. C.; Wagner, R.

    2011-12-01

    In fall 2011 a pilot course on "Global Climate Change" is being offered, which has been proposed to educate urban, diverse, undergraduate students about climate change at the introductory level. The course has been approved to fulfill two general college requirements, a natural sciences requirement that focuses on the scientific method, as well as a global diversity requirement. This course presents the science behind global climate change from an Earth systems and atmospheric science perspective. These concepts then provide the basis to explore the effect of global warming on regions throughout the world. Climate change has been taught as a sub-topic in other courses in the past solely using scientific concepts, with little success in altering the climate change misconceptions of the students. This pilot course will see if new, innovative projects described below can make more of an impact on the students' views of climate change. Results of the successes or failures of these projects will be reported, as well as results of a pre- and post-course questionnaire on climate change given to students taking the course. Students in the class will pair off and choose a global region or country that they will research, write papers on, and then represent in four class discussions spaced throughout the semester. The first report will include details on the current climate of their region and how the climate shapes that region's society and culture. The second report will discuss how that region is contributing to climate change and/or sequestering greenhouse gases. Thirdly, students will discuss observed and predicted changes in that region's climate and what impact it has had, and could have, on their society. Lastly, students will report on what role their region has played in mitigating climate change, any policies their region may have implemented, and how their region can or cannot adapt to future climate changes. They will also try to get a feel for the region

  4. The global land rush and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, Kyle Frankel; Rulli, Maria Cristina; D'Odorico, Paolo

    2015-08-01

    Climate change poses a serious global challenge in the face of rapidly increasing human demand for energy and food. A recent phenomenon in which climate change may play an important role is the acquisition of large tracts of land in the developing world by governments and corporations. In the target countries, where land is relatively inexpensive, the potential to increase crop yields is generally high and property rights are often poorly defined. By acquiring land, investors can realize large profits and countries can substantially alter the land and water resources under their control, thereby changing their outlook for meeting future demand. While the drivers, actors, and impacts involved with land deals have received substantial attention in the literature, we propose that climate change plays an important yet underappreciated role, both through its direct effects on agricultural production and through its influence on mitigative or adaptive policy decisions. Drawing from various literature sources as well as a new global database on reported land deals, we trace the evolution of the global land rush and highlight prominent examples in which the role of climate change is evident. We find that climate change—both historical and anticipated—interacts substantially with drivers of land acquisitions, having important implications for the resilience of communities in targeted areas. As a result of this synthesis, we ultimately contend that considerations of climate change should be integrated into future policy decisions relating to the large-scale land acquisitions.

  5. Engineering change in global climate

    SciTech Connect

    Schneider, S.H.

    1996-12-31

    {open_quotes}With increased public focus on global warming and in the wake of the intense heat waves, drought, fires, and super-hurricanes that occurred in 1988 and 1989, interest in geoengineering has surged,{close_quotes} says Stephen H. Schneider, professor of biological science at Stanford University in Stanford, California. One scheme set forth in a National Research Council report proposes using 16-inch naval guns to fire aerosol shells into the stratosphere in hopes of offsetting {open_quotes}the radiative effects of increasing carbon dioxide,{close_quotes} Schneider says. Schneider, however, would prefer that we {open_quotes}seek measures that can cure our global {open_quote}addiction{close_quote} to polluting practices.{close_quotes} Rather than playing God, he says we should {open_quotes}stick to being human and pursue problem - solving methods currently within our grasp.{close_quotes} Such strategies include efforts to promote energy efficiency and reduce our reliance on automobiles.

  6. The importance of biotic factors in predicting global change effects on decomposition of temperate forest leaf litter.

    PubMed

    Rouifed, Soraya; Handa, I Tanya; David, Jean-François; Hättenschwiler, Stephan

    2010-05-01

    Increasing atmospheric CO(2) and temperature are predicted to alter litter decomposition via changes in litter chemistry and environmental conditions. The extent to which these predictions are influenced by biotic factors such as litter species composition or decomposer activity, and in particular how these different factors interact, is not well understood. In a 5-week laboratory experiment we compared the decomposition of leaf litter from four temperate tree species (Fagus sylvatica, Quercus petraea, Carpinus betulus and Tilia platyphyllos) in response to four interacting factors: elevated CO(2)-induced changes in litter quality, a 3 degrees C warmer environment during decomposition, changes in litter species composition, and presence/absence of a litter-feeding millipede (Glomeris marginata). Elevated CO(2) and temperature had much weaker effects on decomposition than litter species composition and the presence of Glomeris. Mass loss of elevated CO(2)-grown leaf litter was reduced in Fagus and increased in Fagus/Tilia mixtures, but was not affected in any other leaf litter treatment. Warming increased litter mass loss in Carpinus and Tilia, but not in the other two litter species and in none of the mixtures. The CO(2)- and temperature-related differences in decomposition disappeared completely when Glomeris was present. Overall, fauna activity stimulated litter mass loss, but to different degrees depending on litter species composition, with a particularly strong effect on Fagus/Tilia mixtures (+58%). Higher fauna-driven mass loss was not followed by higher C mineralization over the relatively short experimental period. Apart from a strong interaction between litter species composition and fauna, the tested factors had little or no interactive effects on decomposition. We conclude that if global change were to result in substantial shifts in plant community composition and macrofauna abundance in forest ecosystems, these interacting biotic factors could have

  7. Global climate change in large European rivers: long-term effects on macroinvertebrate communities and potential local confounding factors.

    PubMed

    Floury, Mathieu; Usseglio-Polatera, Philippe; Ferreol, Martial; Delattre, Cecile; Souchon, Yves

    2013-04-01

    Aquatic species living in running waters are widely acknowledged to be vulnerable to climate-induced, thermal and hydrological fluctuations. Climate changes can interact with other environmental changes to determine structural and functional attributes of communities. Although such complex interactions are most likely to occur in a multiple-stressor context as frequently encountered in large rivers, they have received little attention in such ecosystems. In this study, we aimed at specifically addressing the issue of relative long-term effects of global and local changes on benthic macroinvertebrate communities in multistressed large rivers. We assessed effects of hydroclimatic vs. water quality factors on invertebrate community structure and composition over 30 years (1979-2008) in the Middle Loire River, France. As observed in other large European rivers, water warming over the three decades (+0.9 °C between 1979-1988 and 1999-2008) and to a lesser extent discharge reduction (-80 m(3) s(-1) ) were significantly involved in the disappearance or decrease in taxa typical from fast running, cold waters (e.g. Chloroperlidae and Potamanthidae). They explained also a major part of the appearance and increase of taxa typical from slow flowing or standing waters and warmer temperatures, including invasive species (e.g. Corbicula sp. and Atyaephyra desmarestii). However, this shift towards a generalist and pollution tolerant assemblage was partially confounded by local improvement in water quality (i.e. phosphate input reduction by about two thirds and eutrophication limitation by almost one half), explaining a significant part of the settlement of new pollution-sensitive taxa (e.g. the caddisfly Brachycentridae and Philopotamidae families) during the last years of the study period. The regain in such taxa allowed maintaining a certain level of specialization in the invertebrate community despite climate change effects.

  8. Effectively Communicating Information about Dynamically Changing Arctic Sea Ice to the Public through the Global Fiducials Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molnia, B. F.; Friesen, B.; Wilson, E.; Noble, S.

    2015-12-01

    On July 15, 2009, the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) released a report, Scientific Value of Arctic Sea Ice Imagery Derived Products, advocating public release of Arctic images derived from classified data. In the NAS press release that announced the release, report lead Stephanie Pfirman states "To prepare for a possibly ice-free Arctic and its subsequent effects on the environment, economy, and national security, it is critical to have accurate projections of changes over the next several decades." In the same release NAS President Ralph Cicerone states "We hope that these images are the first of many that could help scientists learn how the changing climate could impact the environment and our society." The same day, Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar announced that the requested images had been released and were available to the public on a US Geological Survey Global Fiducials Program (GFP) Library website (http://gfl.usgs.gov). The website was developed by the USGS to provide public access to the images and to support environmental analysis of global climate-related science. In the statement describing the release titled, Information Derived from Classified Materials Will Aid Understanding of Changing Climate, Secretary Salazar states "We need the best data from all places if we are to meet the challenges that rising carbon emissions are creating. This information will be invaluable to scientists, researchers, and the public as we tackle climate change." Initially about 700 Arctic sea ice images were released. Six years later, the number exceeds 1,500. The GFP continues to facilitate the acquisition of new Arctic sea ice imagery from US National Imagery Systems. This example demonstrates how information about dynamically changing Arctic sea ice continues to be effectively communicated to the public by the GFP. In addition to Arctic sea ice imagery, the GFP has publicly released imagery time series of more than 125 other environmentally important

  9. Terrestrial ecosystem feedbacks to global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Lashof, D.A.; DeAngelo, B.J.; Saleska, S.R.; Harte, J.

    1997-12-31

    Anthropogenic greenhouse gases are expected to induce changes in global climate that can alter ecosystems in ways that, in turn, may further affect climate. Such climate-ecosystem interactions can generate either positive or negative feedbacks to the climate system, thereby either enhancing or diminishing the magnitude of global climate change. Important terrestrial feedback mechanisms include CO{sub 2} fertilization (negative feedbacks), carbon storage in vegetation and soils (positive and negative feedbacks), vegetation albedo (positive feedbacks), and peatland methane emissions (positive and negative feedbacks). While the processes involved are complex, not readily quantifiable, and demonstrate both positive and negative feedback potential, the authors conclude that the combined effect of the feedback mechanisms reviewed here will likely amplify climate change relative to current projections that have not yet adequately incorporated these mechanisms. 162 refs., 7 figs., 3 tabs.

  10. Clouds and Climate Change. Understanding Global Change: Earth Science and Human Impacts. Global Change Instruction Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shaw, Glenn E.

    The Global Change Instruction Program was designed by college professors to fill a need for interdisciplinary materials on the emerging science of global change. This instructional module introduces the basic features and classifications of clouds and cloud cover, and explains how clouds form, what they are made of, what roles they play in…

  11. Technologies for global change earth observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnston, Gordon I.; Hudson, Wayne R.

    1990-01-01

    Advances in the areas of space-based observations, data/information analysis, and spacecraft/operations for the studying of global changes are discussed. Research involving systems analysis, observation technologies, information technologies, and spacecraft technologies is examined. Consideration is given to cryogenic coolers, IR arrays, laser and submillimeter sensing, large array CCD, information visualization, design knowledge capture, optical communications, multiinstrument pointing, propulsion, space environmental effects, and platform thermal systems.

  12. Biomass burning a driver for global change

    SciTech Connect

    Levine, J.S.; Cofer, W.R. III; Cahoon, D.R. Jr.; Winstead, E.L.

    1995-03-01

    Recent research has identified another biospheric process that has instantaneous and longer term effects on the production of atmospheric gases: biomass burning. Biomass burning includes the burning of the world`s vegetation-forests, savannas. and agricultural lands, to clear the land and change its use. Only in the past decade have researchers realized the important contributions of biomass burning to the global budgets of many radiatively and chemically active gases - carbon dioxide, methane, nitric oxide, tropospheric ozone, methyl chloride - and elemental carbon particulates. International field experiments and satellite data are yielding a clearer understanding of this important global source of atmospheric gases and particulates. It is seen that in addition to being a significant instantaneous global source of atmospheric gases and particulates, burning enhances the biogenic emissions of nitric oxide and nitrous oxide from the world`s soils. Biomass burning affects the reflectivity and emissivity of the Earth`s surface as well as the hydrological cycle by changing rates of land evaporation and water runoff. For these reasons, it appears that biomass burning is a significant driver of global change. 20 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs.

  13. Adaptation Strategies for Global Environmental Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ojima, D. S.; Corell, R.

    2007-12-01

    The global environmental challenges society faces today are unheralded due to the pace at which human activities are affecting the earth system. The rates of energy consumption, nitrogen use and production, and water use increases each year leading to greater global environmental changes affecting warming of the earth system and loss of ecosystem services. The challenge we face today as a society is the manner and speed at which we can adapt to these changes affecting the ecosystem services we depend upon. Innovative strategies are needed to develop the adaptive management tools to integrate the sectors and science necessary to deal with the complexity of effects. Developing strategies to better guide decision making related to climate change trends into changing weather patterns at meaningful temporal and spatial scales are needed, observations and prognostic analyses of climate related triggers of threshold events in ecosystem dynamics, and transfer of knowledge between science, technology, and decision makers. These strategies need to better integrate science (physical, biological, and social knowledge), engineering, policy, and economics interests to create a framework to develop strategies for adaptation and mitigation to global change and to create bridges with institutions and organizations that deal with these issues as a governmental agency or private sector enterprise.

  14. Black carbon emission reduction strategies in healthcare industry for effective global climate change management.

    PubMed

    Raila, Emilia Mmbando; Anderson, David O

    2017-04-01

    Climate change remains one of the biggest threats to life on earth to date with black carbon (BC) emissions or smoke being the strongest cause after carbon dioxide (CO2). Surprisingly, scientific evidence about black carbon emissions reduction in healthcare settings is sparse. This paper presents new research findings on the reduction of black carbon emissions from an observational study conducted at the UN Peacekeeping Operations (MINUSTAH) in Haiti in 2014. Researchers observed 20 incineration cycles, 30 minutes for each cycle of plastic and cardboard sharps healthcare waste (HCW) containers ranged from 3 to 14.6 kg. The primary aim was to determine if black carbon emissions from healthcare waste incineration can be lowered by mainstreaming the use of cardboard sharps healthcare waste containers instead of plastic sharps healthcare waste containers. Similarly, the study looks into whether burning temperature was associated with the smoke levels for each case or not. Independent samples t-tests demonstrated significantly lower black carbon emissions during the incineration of cardboard sharps containers (6.81 ± 4.79% smoke) than in plastic containers (17.77 ± 8.38% smoke); a statistically significant increase of 10.96% smoke (95% Confidence Interval ( CI) [4.4 to 17.5% smoke], p = 0.003). Correspondingly, lower bottom burner temperatures occurred during the incineration of cardboard sharps containers than in plastic (95% Cl [16 to 126°C], p = 0.014). Finally, we expect the application of the new quantitative evidence to form the basis for policy formulation, mainstream the use of cardboard sharps containers and opt for non-incineration disposal technologies as urgent steps for going green in healthcare waste management.

  15. Seagrass meadows in a globally changing environment.

    PubMed

    Unsworth, Richard K F; van Keulen, Mike; Coles, Rob G

    2014-06-30

    Seagrass meadows are valuable ecosystem service providers that are now being lost globally at an unprecedented rate, with water quality and other localised stressors putting their future viability in doubt. It is therefore critical that we learn more about the interactions between seagrass meadows and future environmental change in the anthropocene. This needs to be with particular reference to the consequences of poor water quality on ecosystem resilience and the effects of change on trophic interactions within the food web. Understanding and predicting the response of seagrass meadows to future environmental change requires an understanding of the natural long-term drivers of change and how these are currently influenced by anthropogenic stress. Conservation management of coastal and marine ecosystems now and in the future requires increased knowledge of how seagrass meadows respond to environmental change, and how they can be managed to be resilient to these changes. Finding solutions to such issues also requires recognising people as part of the social-ecological system. This special issue aims to further enhance this knowledge by bringing together global expertise across this field. The special issues considers issues such as ecosystem service delivery of seagrass meadows, the drivers of long-term seagrass change and the socio-economic consequences of environmental change to seagrass.

  16. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #18: SYMPOSIUM SESSION ON "GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHANGE"

    EPA Science Inventory

    A session on "Understanding and Managing Effects of Global Atmospheric Change" will be held at the Fifth Symposium of the U.S. EPA National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory. The Symposium topic is "Indicators in Health and Ecological Risk Assessment." The s...

  17. Climate change impacts on global food security.

    PubMed

    Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

    2013-08-02

    Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

  18. U.S. Global Change Research Program National Climate Assessment Global Change Information System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tilmes, Curt

    2012-01-01

    The program: a) Coordinates Federal research to better understand and prepare the nation for global change. b) Priori4zes and supports cutting edge scientific work in global change. c) Assesses the state of scientific knowledge and the Nation s readiness to respond to global change. d) Communicates research findings to inform, educate, and engage the global community.

  19. Engineering paradigms and anthropogenic global change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bohle, Martin

    2016-04-01

    , the paradigm of 'ecomodernism' implies to accentuate some of the current development paths of societies with the goal to 'decouple' anthropogenic and natural fluxes of matter and energy. Applying the paradigm 'geoengineering', engineering works shall 'modulate' natural fluxes of matter to counter the effect of anthropogenic fluxes of matter instead to alter the development paths of societies. Thus, anthropogenic global change is a composite process in which engineering intercedes the 'noosphere' and in the 'bio-geosphere'. Paradigms 'how to engineering earth systems' reflect different concepts ('shared subjective insights') how to combine knowledge with use, function and purpose. Currently, four paradigms are distinguishable how to engineer anthropogenic global change. They convene recipes human activity and bio-geosphere should intersect.

  20. Global climate change and children's health.

    PubMed

    Shea, Katherine M

    2007-11-01

    There is broad scientific consensus that Earth's climate is warming rapidly and at an accelerating rate. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, are very likely (>90% probability) to be the main cause of this warming. Climate-sensitive changes in ecosystems are already being observed, and fundamental, potentially irreversible, ecological changes may occur in the coming decades. Conservative environmental estimates of the impact of climate changes that are already in process indicate that they will result in numerous health effects to children. The nature and extent of these changes will be greatly affected by actions taken or not taken now at the global level. Physicians have written on the projected effects of climate change on public health, but little has been written specifically on anticipated effects of climate change on children's health. Children represent a particularly vulnerable group that is likely to suffer disproportionately from both direct and indirect adverse health effects of climate change. Pediatric health care professionals should understand these threats, anticipate their effects on children's health, and participate as children's advocates for strong mitigation and adaptation strategies now. Any solutions that address climate change must be developed within the context of overall sustainability (the use of resources by the current generation to meet current needs while ensuring that future generations will be able to meet their needs). Pediatric health care professionals can be leaders in a move away from a traditional focus on disease prevention to a broad, integrated focus on sustainability as synonymous with health. This policy statement is supported by a technical report that examines in some depth the nature of the problem of climate change, likely effects on children's health as a result of climate change, and the critical importance of responding promptly and aggressively to reduce activities that are contributing to

  1. Projecting Global Land-Use Change and Its Effect on Ecosystem Service Provision and Biodiversity with Simple Models

    PubMed Central

    Nelson, Erik; Sander, Heather; Hawthorne, Peter; Conte, Marc; Ennaanay, Driss; Wolny, Stacie; Manson, Steven; Polasky, Stephen

    2010-01-01

    Background As the global human population grows and its consumption patterns change, additional land will be needed for living space and agricultural production. A critical question facing global society is how to meet growing human demands for living space, food, fuel, and other materials while sustaining ecosystem services and biodiversity [1]. Methodology/Principal Findings We spatially allocate two scenarios of 2000 to 2015 global areal change in urban land and cropland at the grid cell-level and measure the impact of this change on the provision of ecosystem services and biodiversity. The models and techniques used to spatially allocate land-use/land-cover (LULC) change and evaluate its impact on ecosystems are relatively simple and transparent [2]. The difference in the magnitude and pattern of cropland expansion across the two scenarios engenders different tradeoffs among crop production, provision of species habitat, and other important ecosystem services such as biomass carbon storage. For example, in one scenario, 5.2 grams of carbon stored in biomass is released for every additional calorie of crop produced across the globe; under the other scenario this tradeoff rate is 13.7. By comparing scenarios and their impacts we can begin to identify the global pattern of cropland and irrigation development that is significant enough to meet future food needs but has less of an impact on ecosystem service and habitat provision. Conclusions/Significance Urban area and croplands will expand in the future to meet human needs for living space, livelihoods, and food. In order to jointly provide desired levels of urban land, food production, and ecosystem service and species habitat provision the global society will have to become much more strategic in its allocation of intensively managed land uses. Here we illustrate a method for quickly and transparently evaluating the performance of potential global futures. PMID:21179509

  2. Global Change: A Biogeochemical Perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcelroy, M.

    1983-01-01

    A research program that is designed to enhance our understanding of the Earth as the support system for life is described. The program change, both natural and anthropogenic, that might affect the habitability of the planet on a time scale roughly equal to that of a human life is studied. On this time scale the atmosphere, biosphere, and upper ocean are treated as a single coupled system. The need for understanding the processes affecting the distribution of essential nutrients--carbon, nitrogen, phosphorous, sulfur, and water--within this coupled system is examined. The importance of subtle interactions among chemical, biological, and physical effects is emphasized. The specific objectives are to define the present state of the planetary life-support system; to ellucidate the underlying physical, chemical, and biological controls; and to provide the body of knowledge required to assess changes that might impact the future habitability of the Earth.

  3. Global atmospheric change and human health

    SciTech Connect

    Piver, W.T.

    1991-12-01

    On November 6-7, 1989, the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) held a Conference on Global Atmospheric Change and Human Health. Since this conference, presented papers have been transformed and revised as articles that address several potential impacts on human health of global warming. Coming when it did, this was a very important conference. At the present time, there is still much uncertainty about whether or not global warming is occurring and, if it is, what effect it will have no human health. All the participants in this conference recognized this uncertainty and addressed potential impacts on human health if surface temperatures continue to rise and greater amounts of shorter wavelength ultraviolet (UV) radiation continue to reach the earth's surface as a result of depletion of the ozone layer. Because global warming and ozone depletion will occur over many decades, adverse impacts on human health and the environment may not be reversible. In short, we are in the midst of a huge geophysical experiment with global climate, and we will not know what the outcome will be for many years.

  4. Global change research: Science and policy

    SciTech Connect

    Rayner, S.

    1993-05-01

    This report characterizes certain aspects of the Global Change Research Program of the US Government, and its relevance to the short and medium term needs of policy makers in the public and private sectors. It addresses some of the difficulties inherent in the science and policy interface on the issues of global change. Finally, this report offers some proposals for improving the science for policy process in the context of global environmental change.

  5. Global Environmental change: Understanding the Human Dimensions

    SciTech Connect

    Morrisette, P.M.

    1993-01-01

    This book is from the National Research Council's Committee on the Human dimensions of Global Change. The object is to examine what is known about human dimensions of global environmental change, identify the major immediate needs for knowledge, and recommend a strategy over the next 5-10 years. Case studies are used in human causes of global change. issues related to theory, methods, and data are covered, as well as institutional needs for interdicipinary approaches.

  6. Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change

    PubMed Central

    Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Cheung, William W. L.; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U. Rashid

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries’ vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries. PMID:27600330

  7. Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change.

    PubMed

    Lam, Vicky W Y; Cheung, William W L; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U Rashid

    2016-09-07

    Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries' vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries.

  8. Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Cheung, William W. L.; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U. Rashid

    2016-09-01

    Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries’ vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries.

  9. Changing ideas of global limits.

    PubMed

    Goddy, D

    1984-03-02

    In this discussion of changing ideas of global limits, attention is directed to world trade, moral restraint, and the "green revolution." A fresh look at the work of those who first considered population problems, e.gg., Malthur, can help make some sense of the population problems the world faces today. Malthus, writing in the late 1700s, concluded that population multiplies with each generation. He saw that food production was limited by the amount of available cropland and that the more people there are, the less food they will have to eat -- assuming that all available cropland is planted. This grim view of the future led Malthus to oppose government aid to the poor maintaining that such assistance would only encourage poor people to have large families. His solution was "moral restratin," seeing it as the duty of each individual to refrain from marriage until he was able to support his children. At the time this advice seemed cruel and Malthus was bitterly attacked by writers everywhere in Europe. Karl Marx and other ctitics of Malthus believed that poverty was caused by unjust governments and the selfishness of the rich. Marx clamied that the problem was too few jobs rather than too many people. The dire predictions of Malthus were soon forgotten as manufacturing industries began to transform the economies of Western Europe in the 1800s. Along with soaring economic growth came a host of developments that improved people's lives, e.g., better transportation, better sanitiation and nutrition, and better medicine. New inventions helped farmers fo produce more food. Next came the "demographic transition." Population grew quickly in Europe and North America as people became healthier and lived longer. Gradually, people in the industrial nations began deciding to have smaller families to enable them to afford an even higher living standard. By the late 1920s birthrates in Europe and the US had dropped so low that mention of the "population problem" usually referred

  10. Biocrusts in the context of global change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reed, Sasha C.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Ochoa-Hueso, Raul; Kuske, Cheryl; Darrouzet-Nardi, Anthony N.; Darby, Brian; Sinsabaugh, Bob; Oliver, Mel; Sancho, Leo; Belnap, Jayne

    2016-01-01

    A wide range of studies show global environmental change will profoundly affect the structure, function, and dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. The research synthesized here underscores that biocrust communities are also likely to respond significantly to global change drivers, with a large potential for modification to their abundance, composition, and function. We examine how elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate change (increased temperature and altered precipitation), and nitrogen deposition affect biocrusts and the ecosystems they inhabit. We integrate experimental and observational data, as well as physiological, community ecology, and biogeochemical perspectives. Taken together, these data highlight the potential for biocrust organisms to respond dramatically to environmental change and show how changes to biocrust community composition translate into effects on ecosystem function (e.g., carbon and nutrient cycling, soil stability, energy balance). Due to the importance of biocrusts in regulating dryland ecosystem processes and the potential for large modifications to biocrust communities, an improved understanding and predictive capacity regarding biocrust responses to environmental change are of scientific and societal relevance.

  11. Global fish production and climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Brander, K.M.

    2007-12-11

    Current global fisheries production of {approx}160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but there is low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in some high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are giverned by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipiation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the pricipal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change.

  12. Medical responsibility and global environmental change.

    PubMed

    McCally, M; Cassel, C K

    1990-09-15

    Global environmental change threatens the habitability of the planet and the health of its inhabitants. Toxic pollution of air and water, acid rain, destruction of stratospheric ozone, waste, species extinction and, potentially, global warming are produced by the growing numbers and activities of human beings. Progression of these environmental changes could lead to unprecedented human suffering. Physicians can treat persons experiencing the consequences of environmental change but cannot individually prevent the cause of their suffering. Physicians have information and expertise about environmental change that can contribute to its slowing or prevention. Work to prevent global environmental change is consistent with the social responsibility of physicians and other health professionals.

  13. Global Climate Change and the Mitigation Challenge

    EPA Science Inventory

    Book edited by Frank Princiotta titled Global Climate Change--The Technology Challenge Transparent modeling tools and the most recent literature are used, to quantify the challenge posed by climate change and potential technological remedies. The chapter examines forces driving ...

  14. Global Change in the Great Lakes: Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garrison, Barbara K., Ed.; Rosser, Arrye R., Ed.

    The Ohio Sea Grant Education Program has produced this series of publications designed to help people understand how global change may affect the Great Lakes region. The possible implications of global change for this region of the world are explained in the hope that policymakers and individuals will be more inclined to make responsible decisions…

  15. Fungal symbionts alter plant responses to global change.

    PubMed

    Kivlin, Stephanie N; Emery, Sarah M; Rudgers, Jennifer A

    2013-07-01

    While direct plant responses to global change have been well characterized, indirect plant responses to global change, via altered species interactions, have received less attention. Here, we examined how plants associated with four classes of fungal symbionts (class I leaf endophytes [EF], arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi [AMF], ectomycorrhizal fungi [ECM], and dark septate endophytes [DSE]) responded to four global change factors (enriched CO2, drought, N deposition, and warming). We performed a meta-analysis of 434 studies spanning 174 publications to search for generalizable trends in responses of plant-fungal symbioses to future environments. Specifically, we addressed the following questions: (1) Can fungal symbionts ameliorate responses of plants to global change? (2) Do fungal symbiont groups differ in the degree to which they modify plant response to global change? (3) Do particular global change factors affect plant-fungal symbioses more than others? In all global change scenarios, except elevated CO2, fungal symbionts significantly altered plant responses to global change. In most cases, fungal symbionts increased plant biomass in response to global change. However, increased N deposition reduced the benefits of symbiosis. Of the global change factors we considered, drought and N deposition resulted in the strongest fungal mediation of plant responses. Our analysis highlighted gaps in current knowledge for responses of particular fungal groups and revealed the importance of considering not only the nonadditive effects of multiple global change factors, but also the interactive effects of multiple fungal symbioses. Our results show that considering plant-fungal symbioses is critical to predicting ecosystem response to global change.

  16. Global Responses to Potential Climate Change: A Simulation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williams, Mary Louise; Mowry, George

    This interdisciplinary five-day unit provides students with an understanding of the issues in the debate on global climate change. Introductory lessons enhance understanding of the "greenhouse gases" and their sources with possible global effects of climate change. Students then roleplay negotiators from 10 nations in a simulation of the…

  17. Population Growth. Understanding Global Change: Earth Science and Human Impacts. Global Change Instruction Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jacobsen, Judith E.

    The Global Change Instruction Program was designed by college professors to fill a need for interdisciplinary materials on the emerging science of global change. This instructional module concentrates on interactions between population growth and human activities that produce global change. The materials are designed for undergraduate students…

  18. Eighth symposium on global change studies

    SciTech Connect

    1997-11-01

    The conference proceedings contain papers from 16 of 20 sessions. The topics of the sessions from which papers were selected were: (1) implications of the IPCC projections of the 21st century climate, (2) natural and forced climate variability, (3) atmospheric circulation; (4) climate trends and abrupt changes; (5) clouds, water vapor, and precipitation; (6) climate impacts; (7) correcting observational biases; (8) the World Ocean Circulation Experiment; (9) land surface and land surface/atmosphere coupling; (10) detection of anthropogenic climate change; (11) climate and global change and the insurance industry; (12) the paleoclimate record; (13) proxy indicators of climate reconstruction; (14) climate predictions; (15) monitoring global change; and (16) historical, current, and project climate trends. Conference sessions from which papers were not selected were: (1) The United States Global Change Research Program perspectives; (2) CLIVAR; (3) the temperature record; and (4) global change educational initiatives. A total of 63 papers were selected for the database.

  19. The Effects of Anthropogenic Land Cover Change on Global and Regional Climate in the Preindustrial Holocene: A Review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaplan, J. O.

    2014-12-01

    The recent development of anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) scenarios that cover all or part of the preindustrial Holocene (11,700 BP to ~AD 1850) has led to a number of modelling studies on the impacts of land cover change on climate, using both GCMs and regional climate models. Because most ALCC scenarios arrive at similar estimates of anthropogenic deforestation by the late preindustrial, most models agree that the net biogeophysical effect of ALCC by AD 1850 is regional cooling at mid- to high-latitudes and warming and drying over the tropics and subtropics. In particular, tropical deforestation appears to lead to local amplification of externally forced drought cycles, e.g., from ENSO. The spatial extent of these climate changes varies between models because the choice of ALCC scenario leads to large differences in the initial forcing. Those model studies that considered biogeochemical feedbacks show that the importance of preindustrial CO2 emissions ranges from being insignificant to larger than the global biogeophysical feedback, depending on assumptions made about potential natural atmospheric CO2 at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. While the net magnitude of deforestation is similar among ALCC scenarios at AD 1850, the timing of deforestation varies widely, which, in addition to affecting the inferred importance of biogeochemical feedbacks, leads to large differences in the estimated importance of ALCC on climate earlier in the Holocene. For example, modelling experiments performed on Europe and the Mediterranean representing conditions at the peak of the Roman Empire or in Mesoamerica for the Classic Maya period show large differences in the estimated importance of the biogeophysical feedback to regional climate depending on the ALCC scenario used. The wide variety of results gained so far from ALCC and climate modelling experiments shows that the question of "how much did humans influence the state of the Earth System before the

  20. Global Distributions of Vulnerability to Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Yohe, Gary; Malone, Elizabeth L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.; Schlesinger, Michael; Meij, Henk; Xiaoshi, Xing

    2006-12-01

    Signatories of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have committed themselves to addressing the “specific needs and special circumstances of developing country parties, especially those that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change”.1 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has since concluded with high confidence that “developing countries will be more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries”.2 In their most recent report, however, the IPCC notes that “current knowledge of adaptation and adaptive capacity is insufficient for reliable prediction of adaptations” 3 because “the capacity to adapt varies considerably among regions, countries and socioeconomic groups and will vary over time”.4 Here, we respond to the apparent contradiction in these two statements by exploring how variation in adaptive capacity and climate impacts combine to influence the global distribution of vulnerability. We find that all countries will be vulnerable to climate change, even if their adaptive capacities are enhanced. Developing nations are most vulnerable to modest climate change. Reducing greenhouse-gas emissions would diminish their vulnerabilities significantly. Developed countries would benefit most from mitigation for moderate climate change. Extreme climate change overwhelms the abilities of all countries to adapt. These findings should inform both ongoing negotiations for the next commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol and emerging plans for implementing UNFCCC-sponsored adaptation funds.

  1. Climate change and global agriculture: Recent findings and issues

    SciTech Connect

    Reilly, J.

    1995-08-01

    This paper (a) reviews existing findings on the global impacts of climate change on agriculture, (b) identifies limitations of these findings, and (c) discusses three issues of interest on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The three issues are as follows: regional effects versus global efficiency: the issue of hunger; climate change, agriculture and economic development; cost and disruption of adaptation to climate change. 45 refs., 3 tabs.

  2. Evaluating Global Climate Change Education Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weston, T. J.

    2011-12-01

    The Global Climate Change Education initiative (GCCE) is a multi-site effort funded by the National Science Foundation to develop web resources. The objective of curricular modules is to improve content knowledge and change attitudes about climate change among undergraduate science students. The two-year evaluation of the project was conducted by Tim Weston from the University of Colorado. The small-scale evaluation first developed measures for attitude and content about climate change, and then administered the measures online. Analysis of results is ongoing. The evaluator wanted to know the attitudes and content knowledge of students after completing the modules, and if attitudes and content knowledge shifted from pre to post. An additional component of the evaluation focused on student understanding of specific global warming topics after completing the modules. Developing the test and survey involved reviewing existing measures, soliciting content from stakeholders in the grant, and then establishing a content framework that covered the important topics in climate change linked to project curricula. The pilot attitude measure contained fourteen agree/disagree items (I believe people should change their lifestyles to help minimize climate change), five self-assessment questions (How informed are you about the different causes of climate change? ), and wo previous experience questions about previous science courses taken, and actions related to climate change. The content measure contained 10 multiple-choice items asking about changes in global average temperature, the scientific methods of climate change, and the primary countries and human activities responsible for climate change. Questions were designed to reflect a mixture of general science literacy about climate change and more specific content related knowledge taught in the curricula. Both content and attitude measures were piloted with students, who answered questions using a think-aloud" interview

  3. Review of Global Change Research Program plan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2012-01-01

    The draft 10-year strategic plan for the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), which proposes broadening the scope of the program from climate change only to climate change and climaterelated global changes, “is an important step in the right direction,” according to a 5 January review of the plan by a committee of the U.S. National Research Council (NRC) of the National Academies. However, the committee also said that the program's legislative mandate is even broader in allowing USGCRP to address many aspects of global change including climate change, the global hydrological cycle, and widespread land use changes. “The Program's legislative mandate is to address all of global change, whether or not related to climate. The Committee concurs that this broader scope is appropriate, but realizes that such an expansion may be constrained by budget realities and by the practical challenge of maintaining clear boundaries for an expanded program,” the report states. “We encourage sustained efforts to expand the Program over time, along with efforts to better define and prioritize what specific topics are included within the bounds of global change research.”

  4. The psychological impacts of global climate change.

    PubMed

    Doherty, Thomas J; Clayton, Susan

    2011-01-01

    An appreciation of the psychological impacts of global climate change entails recognizing the complexity and multiple meanings associated with climate change; situating impacts within other social, technological, and ecological transitions; and recognizing mediators and moderators of impacts. This article describes three classes of psychological impacts: direct (e.g., acute or traumatic effects of extreme weather events and a changed environment); indirect (e.g., threats to emotional well-being based on observation of impacts and concern or uncertainty about future risks); and psychosocial (e.g., chronic social and community effects of heat, drought, migrations, and climate-related conflicts, and postdisaster adjustment). Responses include providing psychological interventions in the wake of acute impacts and reducing the vulnerabilities contributing to their severity; promoting emotional resiliency and empowerment in the context of indirect impacts; and acting at systems and policy levels to address broad psychosocial impacts. The challenge of climate change calls for increased ecological literacy, a widened ethical responsibility, investigations into a range of psychological and social adaptations, and an allocation of resources and training to improve psychologists' competency in addressing climate change-related impacts.

  5. Global lightning activity and climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Price, C.G.

    1993-12-31

    The relationship between global lightning frequencies and global climate change is examined in this thesis. In order to study global impacts of climate change, global climate models or General Circulations Models (GCMs) need to be utilized. Since these models have coarse resolutions many atmospheric phenomena that occur at subgrid scales, such as lightning, need to be parameterized whenever possible. We begin with a simple parameterization used to Simulate total (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) lightning frequencies. The parameterization uses convective cloud top height to approximate lightning frequencies. Then we consider a parameterization for simulating cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning around the globe. This parameterization uses the thickness of the cold cloud sector in thunderstorms (0{degrees}C to cloud top) to calculate the proportion of CG flashes in a particular thunderstorm. We model lightning in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. We present two climate change scenarios. One for a climate where the solar constant is reduced by 2% (5.9{degrees}C global cooling), and one for a climate with twice the present concentration of CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere (4.2{degrees}C global warming). The results imply a 24%/30% decrease/increase in global lightning frequencies for the cooler/warmer climate. The possibility of using the above findings to monitor future global warming is discussed. The earth`s ionospheric potential, which is regulated by global thunderstorm activity, could supply valuable information regarding global surface temperature fluctuations. Finally, we look at the implications of changes in both lightning frequencies and the hydrological cycle, as a result of global warming, on natural forest fires. In the U.S. the annual mean number of lightning fires could increase by 40% while the area burned may increase by 65% in a 2{times}CO{sub 2} climate. On a global scale the largest increase in lightning fires can be expected in the tropics.

  6. Earth orbiting technologies for understanding global change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, Leonard A.; Johnston, Gordon I.; Hudson, Wayne R.; Couch, Lana M.

    We are all becoming more aware of concerns such as the ozone hole and ozone layer depletion, the build-up of greenhouse gasses and the potential for global climate change, the damage to our lakes and forests from acid rain, and the loss of species and genetic diversity. These are not only of scientific interest, but are of growing public media, federal governmental, and international concern, with the potential for major impacts on the international economy, potential for future development, and global standard of living. Yet our current understanding of how our global environment behaves is embryonic, and does not allow us to predict with confidence the consequences or long term significance of these phenomena. NASA has a significant national responsibility in Global Change research, which will require a major agency investment over the next few decades in obtaining the science data associated with understanding the Earth as a total system. Technology research and development is a natural complement to this national scientific program. In her report to the NASA Administrator, Dr. Sally K. Ride states that Mission to Planet Earth "requires advances in technology to enhance observations, to handle and deliver the enormous quantities of data, and to ensure a long operating life." These three themes (1) space-based observation technologies, (2) data/information technologies, and (3) spacecraft/operations technologies form the basis for NASA's efforts to identify the technologies needed to support the Mission to Planet Earth. In the observation area, developments in spacecraft and space-based instrument technologies are required to enable the accurate measurement of key parameters crucial to the understanding of global change. In the data/information area, developments in technologies are required to enable the long-term documentation of these parameters and the timely understanding of the data. And in the spacecraft/operations area, developments in spacecraft

  7. Combined effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on global land dry-wet changes.

    PubMed

    Wang, Shanshan; Huang, Jianping; He, Yongli; Guan, Yuping

    2014-10-17

    The effects of natural variability, especially El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects, have been the focus of several recent studies on the change of drought patterns with climate change. The interannual relationship between ENSO and the global climate is not stationary and can be modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, the global land distribution of the dry-wet changes associated with the combination of ENSO and the PDO remains unclear. In the present study, this is investigated using a revised Palmer Drought Severity Index dataset (sc_PDSI_pm). We find that the effect of ENSO on dry-wet changes varies with the PDO phase. When in phase with the PDO, ENSO-induced dry-wet changes are magnified with respect to the canonical pattern. When out of phase, these dry-wet variations weaken or even disappear. This remarkable contrast in ENSO's influence between the two phases of the PDO highlights exciting new avenues for obtaining improved global climate predictions. In recent decades, the PDO has turned negative with more La Niña events, implying more rain and flooding over land. La Niña-induced wet areas become wetter and the dry areas become drier and smaller due to the effects of the cold PDO phase.

  8. Combined effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Global Land Dry–Wet Changes

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Shanshan; Huang, Jianping; He, Yongli; Guan, Yuping

    2014-01-01

    The effects of natural variability, especially El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects, have been the focus of several recent studies on the change of drought patterns with climate change. The interannual relationship between ENSO and the global climate is not stationary and can be modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, the global land distribution of the dry–wet changes associated with the combination of ENSO and the PDO remains unclear. In the present study, this is investigated using a revised Palmer Drought Severity Index dataset (sc_PDSI_pm). We find that the effect of ENSO on dry–wet changes varies with the PDO phase. When in phase with the PDO, ENSO-induced dry–wet changes are magnified with respect to the canonical pattern. When out of phase, these dry–wet variations weaken or even disappear. This remarkable contrast in ENSO's influence between the two phases of the PDO highlights exciting new avenues for obtaining improved global climate predictions. In recent decades, the PDO has turned negative with more La Niña events, implying more rain and flooding over land. La Niña-induced wet areas become wetter and the dry areas become drier and smaller due to the effects of the cold PDO phase. PMID:25323549

  9. Ozone, Climate, and Global Atmospheric Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levine, Joel S.

    1992-01-01

    The delicate balance of the gases that make up our atmosphere allows life to exist on Earth. Ozone depletion and global warming are related to changes in the concentrations of these gases. To solve global atmospheric problems, we need to understand the composition and chemistry of the Earth's atmosphere and the impact of human activities on them.

  10. Review of inorganic nitrogen transformations and effect of global climate change on inorganic nitrogen cycling in ocean ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Haryun

    2016-03-01

    Inorganic N transformations (nitrification, anaerobic ammonium oxidation, denitrification, and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium) are regulated by various biogeochemical factors linked either by the supply of electron acceptors and donors or by competition for electron acceptors. This review considers both the microbial community related to each process and the technical methods used to measure each process rate. With this background knowledge, this article summarizes how global climate change through increased pCO2, ocean acidification, deoxygenation and anthropogenic N deposition will alter oceanic N cycling, and finally emphasizes the need for comprehensive research on inorganic N transformation in marine ecosystems.

  11. Global climate change--a feasibility perspective of its effect on human health at a local scale.

    PubMed

    Bernardi, Michele

    2008-05-01

    There are two responses to global climate change. First, mitigation, which actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester or store carbon in the short-term, and make development choices that will lead to low emissions in the long-term. Second, adaptation, which involves adjustments in natural or human systems and behaviours that reduce the risks posed by climate change to people's lives and livelihoods. While the two are conceptually distinct, in practice they are very much interdependent, and both are equally urgent from a healthy population perspective. To define the policies to mitigate and to adapt to global climate change, data and information at all scales are the basic requirement for both developed and developing countries. However, as compared to mitigation, adaptation is an immediate concern for low-income countries and for small islands states, where the reduction of the emissions from greenhouse gases is not among their priorities. Adaptation is also highly location specific and the required ground data to assess the impacts of climate change on human health are not available. Climate data at high spatial resolution can be derived by various downscaling methods using historical and real-time meteorological observations but, particularly in low-income countries, the outputs are limited by the lack of ground data at the local level. In many of these countries, a negative trend in the number of meteorological stations as compared as to before 2000 is evident, while remotely-sensed imagery becomes more and more available at high spatial and temporal resolution. The final consequence is that climate change policy options in the developing world are greatly jeopardized.

  12. Global fish production and climate change.

    PubMed

    Brander, K M

    2007-12-11

    Current global fisheries production of approximately 160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but we have low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in some high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are governed by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipitation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the principal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change.

  13. The Mathematics of Global Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kreith, Kurt

    2011-01-01

    This paper is a descriptive and preliminary report on recent efforts to address two questions: 1) Can school mathematics be used to enhance our students' ability to understand their changing world? and 2) What role might computer technology play in this regard? After recounting some of the mathematical tools that led to a better understanding of…

  14. Global vegetation changes from satellite data

    SciTech Connect

    Nemani, R.; Running, S.

    1995-09-01

    Long-term climate, soils data along with satellite observations are sued to quantify global land cover changes between pre-agricultural and present conditions. Changes in global land cover expressed as summer, mid-afternoon, radiometric surface temperatures, T{sub r}, ranged from -8 to +16 {degrees}C. Deforestation resulted in an increase in T{sub r}, while irrigated agriculture reduced the T{sub r}. The spatial heterogeneity in land surface fluxes created by the estimated land cover changes, currently not accounted for in Global Circulation Models, could have significant impact on climate. Potential and actual land cover datasets are available for climate modelers at 0.5x0.5{degrees} resolution to study the possible impacts of land cover changes on global temperatures and circulation patterns.

  15. The effects of global climate change on Southeast Asia: A survey of likely impacts and problems of adaptation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Njoto, Sukrisno; Howe, Charles W.

    1991-01-01

    Study results indicate the likelihood of significant net damages from climate change, in particular damages from sea-level rise and higher temperatures that seem unlikely to be offset by favorable shifts in precipitation and carbon dioxide. Also indicated was the importance of better climate models, in particular models that can calculate climate change on a regional scale appropriate to policy-making. In spite of this potential for damage, there seems to be a low level of awareness and concern, probably caused by the higher priority given to economic growth and reinforced by the great uncertainty in the forecasts. The common property nature of global environment systems also leads to a feeling of helplessness on the part of country governments.

  16. Global change effects on biogeochemical processes of Argentinian estuaries: an overview of vulnerabilities and ecohydrological adaptive outlooks.

    PubMed

    Kopprio, Germán A; Biancalana, Florencia; Fricke, Anna; Garzón Cardona, John E; Martínez, Ana; Lara, Rubén J

    2015-02-28

    The aims of this work are to provide an overview of the current stresses of estuaries in Argentina and to propose adaptation strategies from an ecohydrological approach. Several Argentinian estuaries are impacted by pollutants, derived mainly from sewage discharge and agricultural or industrial activities. Anthropogenic impacts are expected to rise with increasing human population. Climate-driven warmer temperature and hydrological changes will alter stratification, residence time, oxygen content, salinity, pollutant distribution, organism physiology and ecology, and nutrient dynamics. Good water quality is essential in enhancing estuarine ecological resilience to disturbances brought on by global change. The preservation, restoration, and creation of wetlands will help to protect the coast from erosion, increase sediment accretion rates, and improve water quality by removing excess nutrients and pollutants. The capacity of hydrologic basin ecosystems to absorb human and natural impacts can be improved through holistic management, which should consider social vulnerability in complex human-natural systems.

  17. Ozone, Climate, and Global Atmospheric Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levine, Joel S.

    1992-01-01

    Presents an overview of global atmospheric problems relating to ozone depletion and global warming. Provides background information on the composition of the earth's atmosphere and origin of atmospheric ozone. Describes causes, effects, and evidence of ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect. A vignette provides a summary of a 1991 assessment of…

  18. Changing carbon cycle: a global analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Trabalka, J.R.; Reichle, D.E.

    1986-01-01

    An attempt is made to examine current knowledge about the fluxes, sources, and sinks in the global carbon cycle, as well as our ability to predict changes in atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentration resulting from anthropogenic influences. The reader will find authoritative discussions of: past and expected releases of CO/sub 2/ from fossil fuels; the historical record and implications of atmospheric CO/sub 2/ increases; isotopic and geological records of past carbon cycle processes; the role of the oceans in the global carbon cycle; the influence of the world biosphere on changes in atmospheric CO/sub 2/ levels; and, evidence linking the components of the global carbon cycle.

  19. The Sea Level Fingerprints of Global Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitrovica, J. X.; Hay, C.; Kopp, R. E., III; Morrow, E.

    2014-12-01

    It may be difficult to persuade those living in northern Europe that the sea level changes that their coastal communities face depends less on the total melting of polar ice sheets and glaciers than on the individual contributions to this total. In particular, melting of a specific ice sheet or mountain glacier drives deformational, gravitational and rotational perturbations to the Earth system that are manifest in a unique geometry, or fingerprint, of global sea level change. For example, melting from the Greenland Ice Sheet equivalent to 1 mm/yr of global mean sea level (GMSL) rise will lead to sea level rise of ~0 mm/yr in Dublin, ~0.2 mm/yr in Amsterdam, ~0.4 mm/yr in Boston and ~1.2 mm/yr in Cape Town. In contrast, if the same volume of ice melted from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, all of the above sites would experience a sea level rise in the range 1.1-1.2 mm/yr. These fingerprints of modern ice melting, together with ocean thermal expansion and dynamic effects, and the ongoing signal from glacial isostatic adjustment in response to the last ice age, combine to produce a sea level field with significant geographic variability. In this talk I will highlight an analysis of global tide gauge records that takes full advantage of this variability to estimate both GMSL and the sources of meltwater over the last century, and to project GMSL to the end of the current century.

  20. Global change and marine communities: alien species and climate change.

    PubMed

    Occhipinti-Ambrogi, Anna

    2007-01-01

    Anthropogenic influences on the biosphere since the advent of the industrial age are increasingly causing global changes. Climatic change and the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are ranking high in scientific and public agendas, and other components of global change are also frequently addressed, among which are the introductions of non indigenous species (NIS) in biogeographic regions well separated from the donor region, often followed by spectacular invasions. In the marine environment, both climatic change and spread of alien species have been studied extensively; this review is aimed at examining the main responses of ecosystems to climatic change, taking into account the increasing importance of biological invasions. Some general principles on NIS introductions in the marine environment are recalled, such as the importance of propagule pressure and of development stages during the time course of an invasion. Climatic change is known to affect many ecological properties; it interacts also with NIS in many possible ways. Direct (proximate) effects on individuals and populations of altered physical-chemical conditions are distinguished from indirect effects on emergent properties (species distribution, diversity, and production). Climatically driven changes may affect both local dispersal mechanisms, due to the alteration of current patterns, and competitive interactions between NIS and native species, due to the onset of new thermal optima and/or different carbonate chemistry. As well as latitudinal range expansions of species correlated with changing temperature conditions, and effects on species richness and the correlated extinction of native species, some invasions may provoke multiple effects which involve overall ecosystem functioning (material flow between trophic groups, primary production, relative extent of organic material decomposition, extent of benthic-pelagic coupling). Some examples are given, including a special

  1. Uncertainty and global climate change research

    SciTech Connect

    Tonn, B.E.; Weiher, R.

    1994-06-01

    The Workshop on Uncertainty and Global Climate Change Research March 22--23, 1994, in Knoxville, Tennessee. This report summarizes the results and recommendations of the workshop. The purpose of the workshop was to examine in-depth the concept of uncertainty. From an analytical point of view, uncertainty is a central feature of global climate science, economics and decision making. The magnitude and complexity of uncertainty surrounding global climate change has made it quite difficult to answer even the most simple and important of questions-whether potentially costly action is required now to ameliorate adverse consequences of global climate change or whether delay is warranted to gain better information to reduce uncertainties. A major conclusion of the workshop is that multidisciplinary integrated assessments using decision analytic techniques as a foundation is key to addressing global change policy concerns. First, uncertainty must be dealt with explicitly and rigorously since it is and will continue to be a key feature of analysis and recommendations on policy questions for years to come. Second, key policy questions and variables need to be explicitly identified, prioritized, and their uncertainty characterized to guide the entire scientific, modeling, and policy analysis process. Multidisciplinary integrated assessment techniques and value of information methodologies are best suited for this task. In terms of timeliness and relevance of developing and applying decision analytic techniques, the global change research and policy communities are moving rapidly toward integrated approaches to research design and policy analysis.

  2. Nitrogen turnover in soil and global change.

    PubMed

    Ollivier, Julien; Töwe, Stefanie; Bannert, Andrea; Hai, Brigitte; Kastl, Eva-Maria; Meyer, Annabel; Su, Ming Xia; Kleineidam, Kristina; Schloter, Michael

    2011-10-01

    Nitrogen management in soils has been considered as key to the sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems and a protection of major ecosystem services. However, the microorganisms driving processes like nitrification, denitrification, N-fixation and mineralization are highly influenced by changing climatic conditions, intensification of agriculture and the application of new chemicals to a so far unknown extent. In this review, the current knowledge concerning the influence of selected scenarios of global change on the abundance, diversity and activity of microorganisms involved in nitrogen turnover, notably in agricultural and grassland soils, is summarized and linked to the corresponding processes. In this context, data are presented on nitrogen-cycling processes and the corresponding microbial key players during ecosystem development and changes in functional diversity patterns during shifts in land use. Furthermore, the impact of increased temperature, carbon dioxide and changes in precipitation regimes on microbial nitrogen turnover is discussed. Finally, some examples of the effects of pesticides and antibiotics after application to soil for selected processes of nitrogen transformation are also shown.

  3. USGCRP's Geocuration of Global Change Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolfe, R. E.; Duggan, B.; Aulenbach, S.; Goldstein, J.; Newman, B.; Akamine, B.

    2015-12-01

    The U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP's) developed the Global Change Information System (GCIS) to provide specialists and the general public with accessible and usable global change information. GCIS focus is on the cross-cutting theme of Global Change Information that is spread across federal government repositories and the broader research community. An open source web-based resource, the GCIS provides human and programmable interfaces, relational and semantic representations of information, and discrete identifiers for various resources. GCIS's capabilities demonstrated with the release of the NCA have been extended to support a set of USGCRP Global Change Indicators and will support future USGCRP scientific reports and assessments such as the Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health: A Scientific Assessment. GCIS provides named sources and contacts for figures, images and data sources, with the provenance continuing to the platforms and instruments or other observations on which the these documents are based. The GCIS team has been working with the U. S. Climate Data and Tools (CDAT) teams to demonstrate that by extending the GCIS ontology links can be provided between assessments, data and tools, as well as, help curate climate sub-themes such as those focused on a specific societal benefit area (e.g. health) or region (e.g. Arctic).

  4. Potential effects on health of global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Haines, A. . Whittington Hospital); Parry, M. . Environmental Change Unit)

    1993-12-01

    Prediction of the impacts of global climate change on health is complicated by a number of factors. These include: the difficulty in predicting regional changes in climate, the capacity for adaptation to climate change, the interactions between the effects of global climate change and a number of other key determinants of health, including population growth and poverty, and the availability of adequate preventive and curative facilities for diseases that may be effected by climate change. Nevertheless, it is of importance to consider the potential health impacts of global climate change for a number of reasons. It is also important to monitor diseases which could be effected by climate change in order to detect changes in incidence as early as possible and study possible interactions with other factors. It seems likely that the possible impacts on health of climate change will be a major determinant of the degree to which policies aimed at reducing global warming are followed, as perceptions of the effect of climate change to human health and well-being are particularly likely to influence public opinion. The potential health impacts of climate change can be divided into direct (primary) and indirect (secondary and tertiary) effects. Primary effects are those related to the effect of temperature on human well-being and disease. Secondary effects include the impacts on health of changes in food production, availability of water and of sea level rise. A tertiary level of impacts can also be hypothesized.

  5. Effects of input uncertainty and variability on the modelled environmental fate of organic pollutants under global climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Kong, Deguo; MacLeod, Matthew; Li, Zhe; Cousins, Ian T

    2013-11-01

    Global climate change (GCC) is expected to influence the fate, exposure and risks of organic pollutants to wildlife and humans. Multimedia chemical fate models have been previously applied to estimate how GCC affects pollutant concentrations in the environment and biota, but previous studies have not addressed how uncertainty and variability of model inputs affect model predictions. Here, we assess the influence of climate variability and chemical property uncertainty on future projections of environmental fate of six polychlorinated biphenyl congeners under different GCC scenarios using a spreadsheet version of the ChemCAN model and the Crystal Ball® software. Regardless of emission mode, results demonstrate: (i) uncertainty in degradation half-lives dominates the variance of modelled absolute levels of PCB congeners under GCC scenarios; (ii) when the ratios of predictions under GCC to predictions under present day climate are modelled, climate variability dominates the variance of modelled ratios; and (iii) the ratios also indicate a maximum of about a factor of 2 change in the long-term average environmental concentrations due to GCC that is forecasted between present conditions and the period between 2080 and 2099. We conclude that chemical property uncertainty does not preclude assessing relative changes in a GCC scenario compared to a present-day scenario if variance in model outputs due to chemical properties and degradation half-lives can be assumed to cancel out in the two scenarios.

  6. The Psychological Impacts of Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doherty, Thomas J.; Clayton, Susan

    2011-01-01

    An appreciation of the psychological impacts of global climate change entails recognizing the complexity and multiple meanings associated with climate change; situating impacts within other social, technological, and ecological transitions; and recognizing mediators and moderators of impacts. This article describes three classes of psychological…

  7. Global climate change and international security.

    SciTech Connect

    Karas, Thomas H.

    2003-11-01

    This report originates in a workshop held at Sandia National Laboratories, bringing together a variety of external experts with Sandia personnel to discuss 'The Implications of Global Climate Change for International Security.' Whatever the future of the current global warming trend, paleoclimatic history shows that climate change happens, sometimes abruptly. These changes can severely impact human water supplies, agriculture, migration patterns, infrastructure, financial flows, disease prevalence, and economic activity. Those impacts, in turn, can lead to national or international security problems stemming from aggravation of internal conflicts, increased poverty and inequality, exacerbation of existing international conflicts, diversion of national and international resources from international security programs (military or non-military), contribution to global economic decline or collapse, or international realignments based on climate change mitigation policies. After reviewing these potential problems, the report concludes with a brief listing of some research, technology, and policy measures that might mitigate them.

  8. Global change - Geoengineering and space exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jenkins, Lyle M.

    1992-01-01

    Geoengineering options and alternatives are proposed for mitigating the effects of global climate change and depletion of the ozone layer. Geoengineering options were discussed by the National Academy of Science Panel on the Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming. Several of the ideas conveyed in their published report are space-based or depend on space systems for implementation. Among the geoengineering options using space that are discussed include the use of space power systems as an alternative to fossil fuels for generating electricity, the use of lunar He-3 to aid in the development of fusion energy, and the establishment of a lunar power system for solar energy conversion and electric power beaming back to earth. Other geoengineering options are discussed. They include the space-based modulation of hurricane forces and two space-based approaches in dealing with ozone layer depletion. The engineering challenges and policy implementation issues are discussed for these geongineering options.

  9. Using Immersion to teach Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sumners, C. T.; Handron, K.; Reiff, P. H.; Law, C. C.

    2004-12-01

    Students are increasingly jaded to programs that preach, and museums are increasingly finding it difficult to attract students who can retrieve information quickly from the internet or cable TV. A new medium of immersive theater can now engulf the viewer in the subject, bringing a novel view to the exciting new data sets and images now available. By telling a compelling story with characters they can identify with, global climate change can be experienced and its effects brought home in a dramatic and effective way. We have developed several shows highlighting climate change (Powers of Time, Secrets of the Dead Sea), and are developing new shows (Earth's Wild Ride, Earth in the Balance) which can be used to take the visitor into the past or into the future. Clips from the shows and evidence of their effectiveness as an educational tool for Earth science will be shown. If possible, our new portable dome system will be set up in the poster hall for longer live demos of our shows.

  10. Psychological research and global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clayton, Susan; Devine-Wright, Patrick; Stern, Paul C.; Whitmarsh, Lorraine; Carrico, Amanda; Steg, Linda; Swim, Janet; Bonnes, Mirilia

    2015-07-01

    Human behaviour is integral not only to causing global climate change but also to responding and adapting to it. Here, we argue that psychological research should inform efforts to address climate change, to avoid misunderstandings about human behaviour and motivations that can lead to ineffective or misguided policies. We review three key research areas: describing human perceptions of climate change; understanding and changing individual and household behaviour that drives climate change; and examining the human impacts of climate change and adaptation responses. Although much has been learned in these areas, we suggest important directions for further research.

  11. Feedbacks and Acceleration of Global Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hay, William

    2014-05-01

    The burning of fossil fuels since the beginning of the Industrial revolution has increased the level of atmospheric CO2 by about 45 % over that of earlier times. The increasing greenhouse effect is augmented by a series of feedbacks; most have been positive, but a few are negative. The most important are 1) Slowing of the thermohaline circulation system; 2) Decreasing Atlantic to Pacific vapor transport; 3) Increasing Arctic river runoff; 4) Melting of Arctic sea ice; 5) Periodic replacement of the Arctic atmospheric high by a cyclonic low pressure system; 6) Increased exchange of waters between the Arctic and North Atlantic; 7) Lessening of the Northern Hemisphere ice-albedo feedback effect; 8) Addition of methane from melting permafrost; 9) Overall changes in the rate of ocean mixing; 10) Overall changes in vegetation cover of land; 11) Increase in the area covered by C4 vegetation; 12) Addition of nitrous oxide from agricultural practices; 13) Changes in insect populations and their effect on vegetation; 14) Wildfires; 15) Soot accumulation on snow and ice; 16) Accelerated melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet; 17) Changes in the East Antarctic Ice Sheet; 18) Closing of the ozone hole over Antarctica; 19) Decay of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet; 20) Expansion of Southern Ocean sea ice; 21) Slowing of the rate of organic matter sinking into the deep ocean; 22) Decrease in insolation reaching the surface of the Earth as a result of introduction of aerosols into the atmosphere; 23) Depletion of stratospheric ozone by nitrous oxide. The global and regional effects and relative importance of many of these feedbacks are uncertain, and they may change both in magnitude and sign with time. New and unexpected mechanisms are constantly being discovered. The uncertainties and complexity associated with climate system feedbacks are responsible for the acceleration of climate change beyond the rates predicted by numerical modeling. To add to the difficulties inherent in

  12. Modeling Global Change in Local Places: Capturing Global Change and Local Impacts in a Global Land System Change Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verburg, P.; Eitelberg, D.; Ornetsmueller, C.; van Vliet, J.

    2015-12-01

    Global land use models are driven by demands for food and urban space. However, at the same time many transitions in land use and land cover are driven by societal changes and the demand for a wide range of landscape functions or ecosystem services, including the conservation of biodiversity, regulation of climate and floods, and recreation. Some of these demands lead to tele-connected land use change through the transport of good and services, others are place-based and shape the local realities of land system change. Most current land use change models focus on land cover changes alone and ignore the importance of changes in land management and landscape configuration that affect climate, biodiversity and the provisioning of ecosystem services. This talk will present an alternative approach to global land use modelling based on the simulation of changes in land systems in response to a wide set of ecosystem service demands. Simulations at global scale illustrate that accounting for demands for livestock products, carbon sequestration and biological conservation (following the Aichi targets) leads to different outcomes of land change models and allows the identification of synergies between carbon and biodiversity targets. An application in Laos indicates the complex transitions in land systems and landscapes that occur upon the transition from shifting cultivation to permanent agriculture and tree-crop plantations. We discuss the implications of such land system representations for Earth system modelling.

  13. Global Connectedness and Global Migration: Insights from the International Changing Academic Profession Survey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGinn, Michelle K.; Ratkovic, Snežana; Wolhunter, Charl C.

    2013-01-01

    The Changing Academic Profession (CAP) international survey was designed in part to consider the effects of globalization on the work context and activities of academics in 19 countries or regions around the world. This paper draws from a subset of these data to explore the extent to which academics are globally connected in their research and…

  14. Decadal Changes in Global Ocean Chlorophyll

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gregg, Watson W.; Conkright, Margarita E.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The global ocean chlorophyll archive produced by the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) was revised using compatible algorithms with the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWIFS), and both were blended with in situ data. This methodology permitted a quantitative comparison of decadal changes in global ocean chlorophyll from the CZCS (1979-1986) and SeaWiFS (Sep. 1997-Dec. 2000) records. Global seasonal means of ocean chlorophyll decreased over the two observational segments, by 8% in winter to 16% in autumn. Chlorophyll in the high latitudes was responsible for most of the decadal change. Conversely, chlorophyll concentrations in the low latitudes increased. The differences and similarities of the two data records provide evidence of how the Earth's climate may be changing and how ocean biota respond. Furthermore, the results have implications for the ocean carbon cycle.

  15. Botanic gardens science for conservation and global change.

    PubMed

    Donaldson, John S

    2009-11-01

    The contributions of botanic gardens to conservation biology and global-change research need to be understood within the context of the traditional strengths of such gardens in herbarium collections, living collections and interactions with the public. Here, I propose that research in conservation planning, modelling species responses to climate change, conservation of threatened species and experimental tests of global change build on the core strengths of botanic gardens. However, there are limits to what can be achieved through traditional gardens-based programs, and some botanic gardens have adapted their research to include studies of threatening processes and to monitor and verify global-change impacts. There is an opportunity for botanic gardens to use their living collections more effectively in global-change research and for them to have a role in linking biodiversity conservation with benefits derived from ecosystem services.

  16. Global Change Research Program releases new strategic plan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2012-05-01

    Global Change Research Program releases new strategic plan A new 10-year strategic plan released by the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) on 27 April calls for the federal interagency program to focus on four key goals during 2012-2021 to coordinate federal research efforts related to global change. The goals include advancing scientific knowledge of the integrated natural and human components of the Earth system; providing the scientific basis to inform and enable timely decisions on adaptation and mitigation; building sustained assessment capacity that improves the nation's ability to understand, anticipate, and respond to global change impacts and vulnerabilities; and advancing communications and education to broaden understanding of global change and develop the scientific workforce of the future. The goals and related objectives “recognize that to respond effectively to global change will require a deep understanding of the integrated Earth system—an understanding that incorporates physical, chemical, biological and behavioral information,” the plan states. “It is no longer enough to study the isolated physical, chemical, and biological factors affecting global change,” said USGCRP executive director Tom Armstrong.

  17. Natural resources management in an era of global change

    SciTech Connect

    Sommers, W.T.

    1993-12-31

    The international science community has issued a series of predictions of global atmospheric change that, if they verify, will have heretofore unexperienced impact on our forests. Convincing the public and their natural resource managers to respond to these effects must be high on the agenda of the science community. Mitigative and adapative responses we examine and propose, however, should stem from an understanding of the evolving role of the natural resource manager and how that role might be affected by global change.

  18. Open access: changing global science publishing

    PubMed Central

    Gasparyan, Armen Yuri; Ayvazyan, Lilit; Kitas, George D.

    2013-01-01

    The article reflects on open access as a strategy of changing the quality of science communication globally. Successful examples of open-access journals are presented to highlight implications of archiving in open digital repositories for the quality and citability of research output. Advantages and downsides of gold, green, and hybrid models of open access operating in diverse scientific environments are described. It is assumed that open access is a global trend which influences the workflow in scholarly journals, changing their quality, credibility, and indexability. PMID:23986284

  19. Global change technology architecture trade study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garrett, L. Bernard (Editor); Hypes, Warren D. (Editor); Wright, Robert L. (Editor)

    1991-01-01

    Described here is an architecture trade study conducted by the Langley Research Center to develop a representative mix of advanced space science instrumentation, spacecraft, and mission orbits to assist in the technology selection processes. The analyses concentrated on the highest priority classes of global change measurements which are the global climate changes. Issues addressed in the tradeoffs includes assessments of the economics of scale of large platforms with multiple instruments relative to smaller spacecraft; the influences of current and possible future launch vehicles on payload sizes, and on-orbit assembly decisions; and the respective roles of low-Earth versus geostationary Earth orbiting systems.

  20. Open access: changing global science publishing.

    PubMed

    Gasparyan, Armen Yuri; Ayvazyan, Lilit; Kitas, George D

    2013-08-01

    The article reflects on open access as a strategy of changing the quality of science communication globally. Successful examples of open-access journals are presented to highlight implications of archiving in open digital repositories for the quality and citability of research output. Advantages and downsides of gold, green, and hybrid models of open access operating in diverse scientific environments are described. It is assumed that open access is a global trend which influences the workflow in scholarly journals, changing their quality, credibility, and indexability.

  1. Modelling effects of geoengineering options in response to climate change and global warming: implications for coral reefs.

    PubMed

    Crabbe, M J C

    2009-12-01

    Climate change will have serious effects on the planet and on its ecosystems. Currently, mitigation efforts are proving ineffectual in reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Coral reefs are the most sensitive ecosystems on the planet to climate change, and here we review modelling a number of geoengineering options, and their potential influence on coral reefs. There are two categories of geoengineering, shortwave solar radiation management and longwave carbon dioxide removal. The first set of techniques only reduce some, but not all, effects of climate change, while possibly creating other problems. They also do not affect CO2 levels and therefore fail to address the wider effects of rising CO2, including ocean acidification, important for coral reefs. Solar radiation is important to coral growth and survival, and solar radiation management is not in general appropriate for this ecosystem. Longwave carbon dioxide removal techniques address the root cause of climate change, rising CO2 concentrations, they have relatively low uncertainties and risks. They are worthy of further research and potential implementation, particularly carbon capture and storage, biochar, and afforestation methods, alongside increased mitigation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

  2. The effects of global climate change on the cycling and processes of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the North Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Driscoll, K.; Mayer, B.; Su, J.; Mathis, M.

    2014-05-01

    The fate and cycling of two selected legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs), PCB 153 and γ-HCH, in the North Sea in the 21st century have been modelled with combined hydrodynamic and fate and transport ocean models (HAMSOM and FANTOM, respectively). To investigate the impact of climate variability on POPs in the North Sea in the 21st century, future scenario model runs for three 10-year periods to the year 2100 using plausible levels of both in situ concentrations and atmospheric, river and open boundary inputs are performed. This slice mode under a moderate scenario (A1B) is sufficient to provide a basis for further analysis. For the HAMSOM and atmospheric forcing, results of the IPCC A1B (SRES) 21st century scenario are utilized, where surface forcing is provided by the REMO downscaling of the ECHAM5 global atmospheric model, and open boundary conditions are provided by the MPIOM global ocean model. Dry gas deposition and volatilization of γ-HCH increase in the future relative to the present by up to 20% (in the spring and summer months for deposition and in summer for volatilization). In the water column, total mass of γ-HCH and PCB 153 remain fairly steady in all three runs. In sediment, γ-HCH increases in the future runs, relative to the present, while PCB 153 in sediment decreases exponentially in all three runs, but even faster in the future, due to the increased number of storms, increased duration of gale wind conditions and increased water and air temperatures, all of which are the result of climate change. Annual net sinks exceed sources at the ends of all periods. Overall, the model results indicate that the climate change scenarios considered here generally have a negligible influence on the simulated fate and transport of the two POPs in the North Sea, although the increased number and magnitude of storms in the 21st century will result in POP resuspension and ensuing revolatilization events. Trends in emissions from primary and secondary

  3. Model evaluation of the radiative and temperature effects of the ozone content changes in the global atmosphere of 1980's

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Karol, Igor L.; Frolkis, Victor A.

    1994-01-01

    Radiative and temperature effects of the observed ozone and greenhouse gas atmospheric content changes in 1980 - 1990 are evaluated using the two-dimensional energy balance radiative-convective model of the zonally and annually averaged troposphere and stratosphere. Calculated radiative flux changes for standard conditions quantitatively agree with their estimates in WMO/UNEP 1991 review. Model estimates indicate rather small influence of ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere on the greenhouse tropospheric warming rate, being more significant in the non-tropical Southern Hemisphere. The calculated cooling of the lower stratosphere is close to the observed temperature trends there in the last decade.

  4. Global Carbon Cycle and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wofsy, Steven C.

    2004-11-01

    Kirill Kondratyev and his colleagues present an unusual look at global change issues, with particular emphasis on quantitative models that can capture diverse aspects of the complete Earth system-vegetation, atmosphere, oceans, and human beings. The focus is on the global carbon cycle as a prime indicator of global environmental stresses. It includes some remarkably sharp, and insightful critical analysis of the Kyoto Protocol and IPCC activity, and provides citations to a large sampling of Russian-language papers mostly unknown elsewhere. The critique of current policy trends is, in many respects, the most interesting part of the book. The authors are skeptical of claims about attribution of recent climate trends to human intervention, but devastating in their demolition of the ``skeptics'' views that nothing is seriously wrong in the global environmental system. They convincingly bring to bear the most telling observations and facts to make these arguments compelling and clarifying.

  5. Gardening and urban landscaping: significant players in global change.

    PubMed

    Niinemets, Ulo; Peñuelas, Josep

    2008-02-01

    Global warming leads to shifts in vegetation types in given temperate environments. The fastest species movement is due to the globalized supply and use of exotic plants in gardening and urban landscaping. These standard practices circumvent dispersal limitations and biological and environmental stresses; they have three major global impacts: (i) the enhancement of biological invasions, (ii) the elevation of volatile organic compound emissions and the resulting increase in photochemical smog formation, and (iii) the enhancement of CO(2) fixation and water use by gardened plants. These global effects, none of which are currently considered in global-change scenarios, are increasingly amplified with further warming and urbanization. We urge for quantitative assessment of the global effects of gardening and urban landscaping.

  6. Aspen Global Change Institute: 25 Years of Interdisciplinary Global Change Science

    SciTech Connect

    Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard

    2016-11-01

    Global environmental changes such as climate change result from the interaction of human and natural systems. Research to understand these changes and options for addressing them requires the physical, environmental, and social sciences, as well as engineering and other applied fields. In this essay, we describe how the Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) has provided leadership in global change science over the past 25 years—in particular how it has contributed to the integration of the natural and social sciences needed to research the drivers of change, Earth system response, natural and human system impacts, and options for risk management. We illustrate the ways the history of AGCI has been intertwined with the evolution of global change science as it has become an increasingly interdisciplinary endeavor.

  7. Global Change: A View from Space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.

    2003-01-01

    In this talk, I will discuss the fundamental science and society problems associated with global change, with an emphasis on the view from space. I will provide an overview of the vision and activities of the World Climate Research Program in the next two decades. Then I will show regional climate changes and environmental problems in the East Asian region, such as biomass burning, urban pollutions, yellow sand, and their possible interaction with the Asian monsoon, particularly over Southern China.

  8. Surfing Global Change: Negotiating Sustainable Solutions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ahamer, Gilbert

    2006-01-01

    SURFING GLOBAL CHANGE (SGC) serves as a procedural shell for attaining sustainable solutions for any interdisciplinary issue and is intended for use in advanced university courses. The participants' activities evolve through five levels from individual argumentation to molding one's own views for the "common good." The paradigm of…

  9. Global change: state of the science.

    PubMed

    Wuebbles, D J; Jain, A; Edmonds, J; Harvey, D; Hayhoe, K

    1999-01-01

    Only recently, within a few decades, have we realized that humanity significantly influences the global environment. In the early 1980s, atmospheric measurements confirmed basic concepts developed a decade earlier. These basic concepts showed that human activities were affecting the ozone layer. Later measurements and theoretical analyses have clearly connected observed changes in ozone to human-related increases of chlorine and bromine in the stratosphere. As a result of prompt international policy agreements, the combined abundances of ozone-depleting compounds peaked in 1994 and ozone is already beginning a slow path to recovery. A much more difficult problem confronting humanity is the impact of increasing levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases on global climate. The processes that connect greenhouse gas emissions to climate are very complex. This complexity has limited our ability to make a definitive projection of future climate change. Nevertheless, the range of projected climate change shows that global warming has the potential to severely impact human welfare and our planet as a whole. This paper evaluates the state of the scientific understanding of the global change issues, their potential impacts, and the relationships of scientific understanding to policy considerations.

  10. Global change and biological soil crusts: Effects of ultraviolet augmentation under altered precipitation regimes and nitrogen additions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Belnap, J.; Phillips, S.L.; Flint, S.; Money, J.; Caldwell, M.

    2008-01-01

    Biological soil crusts (BSCs), a consortium of cyanobacteria, lichens, and mosses, are essential in most dryland ecosystems. As these organisms are relatively immobile and occur on the soil surface, they are exposed to high levels of ultraviolet (UV) radiation and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, rising temperatures, and alterations in precipitation patterns. In this study, we applied treatments to three types of BSCs (early, medium, and late successional) over three time periods (spring, summer, and spring-fall). In the first year, we augmented UV and altered precipitation patterns, and in the second year, we augmented UV and N. In the first year, with average air temperatures, we saw little response to our treatments except quantum yield, which was reduced in dark BSCs during one of three sample times and in Collema BSCs two of three sample times. There was more response to UV augmentation the second year when air temperatures were above average. Declines were seen in 21% of the measured variables, including quantum yield, chlorophyll a, UV-protective pigments, nitrogenase activity, and extracellular polysaccharides. N additions had some negative effects on light and dark BSCs, including the reduction of quantum yield, ??-carotene, nitrogenase activity, scytonemin, and xanthophylls. N addition had no effects on the Collema BSCs. When N was added to samples that had received augmented UV, there were only limited effects relative to samples that received UV without N. These results indicate that the negative effect of UV and altered precipitation on BSCs will be heightened as global temperatures increase, and that as their ability to produce UV-protective pigments is compromised, physiological functioning will be impaired. N deposition will only ameliorate UV impacts in a limited number of cases. Overall, increases in UV will likely lead to lowered productivity and increased mortality in BSCs through time, which, in turn, will reduce their ability to contribute

  11. Synergistic effects of temperature extremes, hypoxia, and increases in CO2 on marine animals: From Earth history to global change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    PöRtner, Hans O.; Langenbuch, Martina; Michaelidis, Basile

    2005-09-01

    Currently rising CO2 levels in atmosphere and marine surface waters as well as projected scenarios of CO2 disposal in the ocean emphasize that CO2 sensitivities need to be investigated in aquatic organisms, especially in animals which may well be the most sensitive. Moreover, to understand causes and effects, we need to identify the physiological processes that are sensitive to CO2 beyond the current emphasis on calcification. Few animals may be acutely sensitive to moderate CO2 increases, but subtle changes due to long-term exposure may already have started to be felt in a wide range of species. CO2 effects identified in invertebrate fauna from habitats characterized by oscillating CO2 levels include depressed metabolic rates and reduced ion exchange and protein synthesis rates. These result in shifts in metabolic equilibria and slowed growth. Long-term moderate hypercapnia has been observed to produce enhanced mortality with as yet unidentified cause and effect relationships. During future climate change, simultaneous shifts in temperature, CO2, and hypoxia levels will enhance sensitivity to environmental extremes relative to a change in just one of these variables. Some interactions between these variables result from joint effects on the same physiological mechanisms. Such interactions need to be considered in terms of future increases in atmospheric CO2 and its uptake by the ocean as well as in terms of currently proposed mitigation scenarios. These include purposeful injection of CO2 in the deep ocean or Fe fertilization of the surface ocean, which reduces subsurface O2 levels. The resulting ecosystem shifts could develop progressively, rather than beyond specific thresholds, such that effects parallel CO2 oscillations. It is unsure to what extent and how quickly species may adapt to permanently elevated CO2 levels by microevolutionary compensatory processes.

  12. Mechanistic Toxicology in the Face of Global Climate Change

    EPA Science Inventory

    To incorporate effects of global climate change (GCC) into regulatory assessments of chemical risk, damage and restoration needs, an understanding is needed of GCC effects on mechanisms of chemical toxicity and the implications of those effects when placed in context with GCC eff...

  13. Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X.

    2002-01-01

    that strongly influence the effects of climate change on the global forest sector.

  14. WATERSHED BOUNDARY CONDITIONS FOR GLOBAL CHANGE IMPACT ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) studies (among other issues) the impact of global change on water quality. This field study evaluates the impact of global changes (land-use change and climate change) on source water quality. Changes in source water quality change...

  15. Global change and biodiversity loss: Some impediments to response

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Borza, Karen; Jamieson, Dale

    1991-01-01

    Discussed here are the effects of anthropogenic global climate change on biodiversity. The focus is on human responses to the problem. Greenhouse warming-induced climate change may shift agricultural growing belts, reduce forests of the Northern Hemisphere and drive many species to extinction, among other effects. If these changes occur together with the mass extinctions already occurring, we may suffer a profound loss of biological diversity.

  16. Satellite Contributions to Global Change Studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parkinson, Claire L.

    2009-01-01

    By providing a global view with a level playing field (no region missed because of unfavorable surface conditions or political boundaries), satellites have made major contributions to improved monitoring and understanding of our constantly changing planet. The global view has allowed surprising realizations like the relative sparsity of lightning strikes over oceans and the large-scale undulations on the massive Antarctic ice sheet. It has allowed the tracking of all sorts of phenomena, including aerosols, both natural and anthropogenic, as they move with the atmospheric circulation and impact weather and human health. But probably nothing that the global view allows is more important in the long term than its provision. of unbiased data sets to address the issue of global change, considered by many to be among the most important issues facing humankind today. With satellites we can monitor atmospheric temperatures at all latitudes and longitudes, and obtain a global average that lessens the likelihood of becoming endlessly mired in the confusions brought about by the certainty of regional differences. With satellites we can monitor greenhouse gases such as CO2 not just above individual research stations but around the globe. With satellites we can monitor the polar sea ice covers, as we have done since the late 1970s, determining and quantifying the significant reduction in Arctic sea ice and the slight growth in Antarctic sea ice over that period, With satellites we can map the full extent and changes in the Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletions that were first identified from using a single ground station; and through satellite data we have witnessed from afar land surface changes brought about by humans both intentionally, as with wide-scale deforestation, and unintentionally, as with the decay of the Aral Sea. The satellite data are far from sufficient for all that we need in order to understand the global system and forecast its changes, as we also need

  17. Global Change: Logs of Straw; Dendrochronology

    SciTech Connect

    1994-09-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey has produced a teacher`s packet targeted for grades 4 through 6 entitled Global Change. Each Global Change packet contains the following inserts: (1) A color poster depicting the earth as a fragile planet on one side, and examples of visible global change on the reverse. (2) Three activities addressing {open_quotes}Time and Cycles,{close_quotes} {open_quotes}Change and Cycles,{close_quotes} and {open_quotes}Earth as Home{close_quotes} (3) A teacher guide (4) An evaluation questionnaire. Trees are some of nature`s most accurate time-keepers. Their growth layers, appearing as rings in the cross section of the tree trunk, record evidence of floods, droughts, insect attacks, lightning strikes, and even earthquakes. Tree growth depends on local conditions, which include the availability of water. Because the water cycle, or hydrologic cycle, is uneven-that is, the amount of water in the environment varies from year to year-scientist use tree-ring patterns to reconstruct regional patterns of drought and climatic change. This field of study, known as dendrochronology, was begun in the early 1900s by an American astronomer named Andrew Ellicott Douglass.

  18. Thermohaline circulations and global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Hanson, H.P.

    1992-01-01

    Thermohaline Circulations and Global Climate Change'' is concerned with investigating the hypothesis that changes in surface thermal and hydrological forcing of the North Atlantic, changes that might be expected to accompany CO{sub 2}-induced global warming, could result in ocean-atmosphere interactions' exerting a positive feedback on the climate system. Because the North Atlantic is the source of much of the global ocean's reservoir of deep water, and because this deep water could sequester large amounts of anthropogenically produced Co{sub 2}, changes in the rate of deep-water production are important to future climates. Since deep-water production is controlled, in part, by the annual cycle of the atmospheric forcing of the North Atlantic, and since this forcing depends strongly on both hydrological and thermal processes as well as the windstress, there is the potential for feedback between the relatively short-term response of the atmosphere to changing radiative forcing and the longer-term processes in the oceans. Work over the past 12 months has proceeded in several directions.

  19. Thermohaline circulations and global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Hanson, H.P.

    1992-01-01

    This report discusses research activities conducted during the period 15 January 1992--14 December 1992. Thermohaline Circulations and Global Climate Change is concerned with investigating the hypothesis that changes in surface thermal and hydrological forcing of the North Atlantic, changes that might be expected to accompany C0[sub 2]-induced global warming, could result in ocean-atmosphere interactions' exerting a positive feedback on the climate system. Because the North Atlantic is the source of much of the global ocean's reservoir of deep water, and because this deep water could sequester large amounts of anthropogenically produced C0[sub 2], changes in the rate of deep-water production are important to future climates. Since deep-water Production is controlled, in part, by the annual cycle of the atmospheric forcing of the North Atlantic, and since this forcing depends strongly on both hydrological and thermal processes as well as the windstress, there is the potential for feedback between the relatively short-term response of the atmosphere to changing radiative forcing and the longer-term processes in the oceans. Work over the past 11 months has proceeded according to the continuation discussion of last January and several new results have arisen.

  20. Aspen Global Change Institute Summer Science Sessions

    SciTech Connect

    Katzenberger, John; Kaye, Jack A

    2006-10-01

    The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) successfully organized and convened six interdisciplinary meetings over the course of award NNG04GA21G. The topics of the meetings were consistent with a range of issues, goals and objectives as described within the NASA Earth Science Enterprise Strategic Plan and more broadly by the US Global Change Research Program/Our Changing Planet, the more recent Climate Change Program Strategic Plan and the NSF Pathways report. The meetings were chaired by two or more leaders from within the disciplinary focus of each session. 222 scholars for a total of 1097 participants-days were convened under the auspices of this award. The overall goal of each AGCI session is to further the understanding of Earth system science and global environmental change through interdisciplinary dialog. The format and structure of the meetings allows for presentation by each participant, in-depth discussion by the whole group, and smaller working group and synthesis activities. The size of the group is important in terms of the group dynamics and interaction, and the ability for each participant's work to be adequately presented and discussed within the duration of the meeting, while still allowing time for synthesis

  1. Avian migration phenology and global climate change.

    PubMed

    Cotton, Peter A

    2003-10-14

    There is mounting evidence that global climate change has extended growing seasons, changed distribution patterns, and altered the phenology of flowering, breeding, and migration. For migratory birds, the timing of arrival on breeding territories and over-wintering grounds is a key determinant of reproductive success, survivorship, and fitness. But we know little of the factors controlling earlier passage in long-distance migrants. Over the past 30 years in Oxfordshire, U.K., the average arrival and departure dates of 20 migrant bird species have both advanced by 8 days; consequently, the overall residence time in Oxfordshire has remained unchanged. The timing of arrival has advanced in relation to increasing winter temperatures in sub-Saharan Africa, whereas the timing of departure has advanced after elevated summer temperatures in Oxfordshire. This finding demonstrates that migratory phenology is quite likely to be affected by global climate change and links events in tropical winter quarters with those in temperate breeding areas.

  2. [Response of bryophytes to global change and its bioindicatortation].

    PubMed

    Wu, Yuhuan; Gao, Chien; Cheng, Guodong; Yu, Xinghua; Cao, Tong

    2002-07-01

    Bryophytes are sensitive to atmosphere components concentration and global climate change resulted from relatively simple structures. Bryophyte is an ideal kind of biological indicator of global changes, environmental pollution, nutrient condition, forest integrity and ecosystem health. In order to use bryophytes as indicators to environmental and global changes, further studies on response and adaptation of bryophytes to the global changes are needed.

  3. Sustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Woolf, Dominic; Amonette, James E.; Street-Perrott, F. A.; Lehmann, Johannes C.; Joseph, Stephen

    2010-08-10

    Production of biochar (the carbon-rich solid formed by pyrolysis of biomass), in combination with its storage in soils, has been suggested as a means to abate anthropogenic climate change, while simultaneously increasing crop yields. The climate mitigation potential stems primarily from the highly recalcitrant nature of biochar, which slows the rate at which photosynthetically fixed carbon is returned to the atmosphere. Significant uncertainties exist, however, regarding the impact, capacity, and sustainability of biochar for carbon capture and storage when scaled to the global level. Previous estimates, based on simple assumptions, vary widely. Here we show that, subject to strict environmental and modest economic constraints on biomass procurement and biochar production methods, annual net emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O could be reduced by 1.1 - 1.9 Pg CO2-C equivalent (CO2-Ce)/yr (7 - 13% of current anthropogenic CO2-Ce emissions; 1Pg = 1 Gt). Over one century, cumulative net emissions of these gases could be reduced by 72-140 Pg CO2-Ce. The lower end of this range uses currently untapped residues and wastes; the upper end requires substantial alteration to global biomass management, but would not endanger food security, habitat or soil conservation. Half the avoided emissions are due to the net C sequestered as biochar, one-quarter to replacement of fossil-fuel energy by pyrolysis energy, and one-quarter to avoided emissions of CH4 and N2O. The total mitigation potential is 18-30% greater than if the same biomass were combusted to produce energy. Despite limited data for the decomposition rate of biochar in soils and the effects of biochar additions on soil greenhouse-gas fluxes, sensitivity within realistic ranges of these parameters is small, resulting in an uncertainty of ±8% (±1 s.d.) in our estimates. Achieving these mitigation results requires, however, that biochar production be performed using only low-emissions technologies and feedstocks obtained

  4. Environmental health implications of global climate change.

    PubMed

    Watson, Robert T; Patz, Jonathan; Gubler, Duane J; Parson, Edward A; Vincent, James H

    2005-09-01

    This paper reviews the background that has led to the now almost-universally held opinion in the scientific community that global climate change is occurring and is inescapably linked with anthropogenic activity. The potential implications to human health are considerable and very diverse. These include, for example, the increased direct impacts of heat and of rises in sea level, exacerbated air and water-borne harmful agents, and--associated with all the preceding--the emergence of environmental refugees. Vector-borne diseases, in particular those associated with blood-sucking arthropods such as mosquitoes, may be significantly impacted, including redistribution of some of those diseases to areas not previously affected. Responses to possible impending environmental and public health crises must involve political and socio-economic considerations, adding even greater complexity to what is already a difficult challenge. In some areas, adjustments to national and international public health practices and policies may be effective, at least in the short and medium terms. But in others, more drastic measures will be required. Environmental monitoring, in its widest sense, will play a significant role in the future management of the problem.

  5. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #37: PUBLICATION OF "OUR CHANGING PLANET: THE FY 2002 U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM"

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA Global Change Research Program is pleased to inform you of the publication of the new Our Changing Planet: The FY 2002 U.S. Global Change Research Program. This annual report to the Congress was prepared under the auspices of the Committee on Environment and Natural Reso...

  6. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #8: OUR CHANGING PLANET: THE FY2000 U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM

    EPA Science Inventory

    This edition of Global Change Research News focuses on the publication of the new OurChanging Planet: The FY2000 U.S. Global Change Research Program. This annual report to the Congress was prepared under the auspices ofthe President's National Science and Technology Council. It...

  7. Stellar activity: Astrophysics relevant to global change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haisch, Bernhard M.

    1994-01-01

    FRESIP will obtain a great deal of data on stellar activity and flares on F, G and K dwarfs. Rotation periods, flare distributions and possibly stellar cycles will emerge. This apparently curiosity-driven research actually has implications for our understanding of global climate change. Significant climate change during the seventeenth-century Maunder Minimum is thought to be related to a change in the solar condition. Recently acquired data from the Greenland Ice-core Project suggest that far greater climate changes on decade time scales may have occurred during the previous interglacial. It is possible that a yet more drastic change in state of the Sun was responsible. We have no relevant solar data, but can begin to explore this possibility by observing an ensemble of solar-like stars.

  8. Changing recruitment capacity in global fish stocks.

    PubMed

    Britten, Gregory L; Dowd, Michael; Worm, Boris

    2016-01-05

    Marine fish and invertebrates are shifting their regional and global distributions in response to climate change, but it is unclear whether their productivity is being affected as well. Here we tested for time-varying trends in biological productivity parameters across 262 fish stocks of 127 species in 39 large marine ecosystems and high-seas areas (hereafter LMEs). This global meta-analysis revealed widespread changes in the relationship between spawning stock size and the production of juvenile offspring (recruitment), suggesting fundamental biological change in fish stock productivity at early life stages. Across regions, we estimate that average recruitment capacity has declined at a rate approximately equal to 3% of the historical maximum per decade. However, we observed large variability among stocks and regions; for example, highly negative trends in the North Atlantic contrast with more neutral patterns in the North Pacific. The extent of biological change in each LME was significantly related to observed changes in phytoplankton chlorophyll concentration and the intensity of historical overfishing in that ecosystem. We conclude that both environmental changes and chronic overfishing have already affected the productive capacity of many stocks at the recruitment stage of the life cycle. These results provide a baseline for ecosystem-based fisheries management and may help adjust expectations for future food production from the oceans.

  9. Changing recruitment capacity in global fish stocks

    PubMed Central

    Britten, Gregory L.; Dowd, Michael; Worm, Boris

    2016-01-01

    Marine fish and invertebrates are shifting their regional and global distributions in response to climate change, but it is unclear whether their productivity is being affected as well. Here we tested for time-varying trends in biological productivity parameters across 262 fish stocks of 127 species in 39 large marine ecosystems and high-seas areas (hereafter LMEs). This global meta-analysis revealed widespread changes in the relationship between spawning stock size and the production of juvenile offspring (recruitment), suggesting fundamental biological change in fish stock productivity at early life stages. Across regions, we estimate that average recruitment capacity has declined at a rate approximately equal to 3% of the historical maximum per decade. However, we observed large variability among stocks and regions; for example, highly negative trends in the North Atlantic contrast with more neutral patterns in the North Pacific. The extent of biological change in each LME was significantly related to observed changes in phytoplankton chlorophyll concentration and the intensity of historical overfishing in that ecosystem. We conclude that both environmental changes and chronic overfishing have already affected the productive capacity of many stocks at the recruitment stage of the life cycle. These results provide a baseline for ecosystem-based fisheries management and may help adjust expectations for future food production from the oceans. PMID:26668368

  10. SAGE III capabilities and global change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mccormick, M. Patrick

    1991-01-01

    The science objectives of the satellite-borne SAGE III are presented as they pertain to detecting global change. SAGE III is the proposed follow on and improved version of SAM II, SAGE I and SAGE II which have measured stratospheric and, in some cases, tropospheric species since late 1978. Specifically, SAGE III will measure profiles of aerosols, ozone, water vapor, nitrogen dioxide and trioxide, neutral density, temperature, clouds, and chlorine dioxide using the solar and lunar occultation techniques. These techniques are inherently self-calibrating, provide high vertical resolution, and use well-behaved data retrievals making them ideal for trend detection and global change studies. The potential capabilities of SAGE III are illustrated by using data and results from SAM II, SAGE I and SAGE II.

  11. Time series analyses of global change data.

    PubMed

    Lane, L J; Nichols, M H; Osborn, H B

    1994-01-01

    The hypothesis that statistical analyses of historical time series data can be used to separate the influences of natural variations from anthropogenic sources on global climate change is tested. Point, regional, national, and global temperature data are analyzed. Trend analyses for the period 1901-1987 suggest mean annual temperatures increased (in degrees C per century) globally at the rate of about 0.5, in the USA at about 0.3, in the south-western USA desert region at about 1.2, and at the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in south-eastern Arizona at about 0.8. However, the rates of temperature change are not constant but vary within the 87-year period. Serial correlation and spectral density analysis of the temperature time series showed weak periodicities at various frequencies. The only common periodicity among the temperature series is an apparent cycle of about 43 years. The temperature time series were correlated with the Wolf sunspot index, atmospheric CO(2) concentrations interpolated from the Siple ice core data, and atmospheric CO(2) concentration data from Mauna Loa measurements. Correlation analysis of temperature data with concurrent data on atmospheric CO(2) concentrations and the Wolf sunspot index support previously reported significant correlation over the 1901-1987 period. Correlation analysis between temperature, atmospheric CO(2) concentration, and the Wolf sunspot index for the shorter period, 1958-1987, when continuous Mauna Loa CO(2) data are available, suggest significant correlation between global warming and atmospheric CO(2) concentrations but no significant correlation between global warming and the Wolf sunspot index. This may be because the Wolf sunspot index apparently increased from 1901 until about 1960 and then decreased thereafter, while global warming apparently continued to increase through 1987. Correlation of sunspot activity with global warming may be spurious but additional analyses are required to test this hypothesis

  12. National Institute for Global Environmental Change

    SciTech Connect

    Werth, G.C.

    1992-04-01

    This document is the Semi-Annual Report of the National Institute for Global Environmental Change for the reporting period July 1 to December 31, 1991. The report is in two parts. Part I presents the mission of the Institute, examples of progress toward that mission, a brief description of the revised management plan, and the financial report. Part II presents the statements of the Regional Center Directors along with progress reports of the projects written by the researchers themselves.

  13. Groundwater and climate change: mitigating the global groundwater crisis and adapting to climate change model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    To better understand the effects of climate change on global groundwater resources, the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) International Hydrological Programme (IHP) initiated the GRAPHIC (Groundwater Resources Assessment under the Pressures of Humanity and Cl...

  14. Trait variations of ground flora species disentangle the effects of global change and altered land-use in Swedish forests during 20 years.

    PubMed

    Hedwall, Per-Ola; Brunet, Jörg

    2016-12-01

    Northern forest ecosystems are exposed to a range of anthropogenic processes including global warming, atmospheric deposition, and changing land-use. The vegetation of northern forests is composed of species with several functional traits related to these processes, whose effects may be difficult to disentangle. Here, we combined analyses of spatio-temporal dynamics and functional traits of ground flora species, including morphological characteristics, responses to macro- and microclimate, soil conditions, and disturbance. Based on data from the Swedish National Forest Inventory, we compared changes in occurrence of a large number of ground flora species during a 20-year period (1994-2013) in boreal and temperate Sweden respectively. Our results show that a majority of the common ground flora species have changed their overall frequency. Comparisons of functional traits between increasing and declining species, and of trends in mean trait values of sample plots, indicate that current floristic changes are caused by combined effects of climate warming, nitrogen deposition and changing land-use. Changes and their relations with plant traits were generally larger in temperate southern Sweden. Nutrient-demanding species with mesotrophic morphology were favored by ongoing eutrophication due to nitrogen deposition in the temperate zone, while dwarf shrubs with low demands on nitrogen decreased in frequency. An increase of species with less northern and less eastern distribution limits was also restricted to temperate Sweden, and indicates effects of a moister and milder macroclimate. A trend toward dense plantation forests is mirrored by a decrease of light-demanding species in both vegetation zones, and a decrease of grassland species in the temperate zone. Although denser tree canopies may buffer effects of a warmer climate and of nitrogen deposition to some extent, traits related to these processes were weakly correlated in the group of species with changing frequency

  15. Global climate change: the quantifiable sustainability challenge.

    PubMed

    Princiotta, Frank T; Loughlin, Daniel H

    2014-09-01

    Population growth and the pressures spawned by increasing demands for energy and resource-intensive goods, foods, and services are driving unsustainable growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recent GHG emission trends are consistent with worst-case scenarios of the previous decade. Dramatic and near-term emission reductions likely will be needed to ameliorate the potential deleterious impacts of climate change. To achieve such reductions, fundamental changes are required in the way that energy is generated and used. New technologies must be developed and deployed at a rapid rate. Advances in carbon capture and storage, renewable, nuclear and transportation technologies are particularly important; however, global research and development efforts related to these technologies currently appear to fall short relative to needs. Even with a proactive and international mitigation effort, humanity will need to adapt to climate change, but the adaptation needs and damages will be far greater if mitigation activities are not pursued in earnest. In this review, research is highlighted that indicates increasing global and regional temperatures and ties climate changes to increasing GHG emissions. GHG mitigation targets necessary for limiting future global temperature increases are discussed, including how factors such as population growth and the growing energy intensity of the developing world will make these reduction targets more challenging. Potential technological pathways for meeting emission reduction targets are examined, barriers are discussed, and global and US. modeling results are presented that suggest that the necessary pathways will require radically transformed electric and mobile sectors. While geoengineering options have been proposed to allow more time for serious emission reductions, these measures are at the conceptual stage with many unanswered cost, environmental, and political issues. Implications: This paper lays out the case that mitigating the

  16. A DBMS architecture for global change research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hachem, Nabil I.; Gennert, Michael A.; Ward, Matthew O.

    1993-08-01

    The goal of this research is the design and development of an integrated system for the management of very large scientific databases, cartographic/geographic information processing, and exploratory scientific data analysis for global change research. The system will represent both spatial and temporal knowledge about natural and man-made entities on the eath's surface, following an object-oriented paradigm. A user will be able to derive, modify, and apply, procedures to perform operations on the data, including comparison, derivation, prediction, validation, and visualization. This work represents an effort to extend the database technology with an intrinsic class of operators, which is extensible and responds to the growing needs of scientific research. Of significance is the integration of many diverse forms of data into the database, including cartography, geography, hydrography, hypsography, images, and urban planning data. Equally important is the maintenance of metadata, that is, data about the data, such as coordinate transformation parameters, map scales, and audit trails of previous processing operations. This project will impact the fields of geographical information systems and global change research as well as the database community. It will provide an integrated database management testbed for scientific research, and a testbed for the development of analysis tools to understand and predict global change.

  17. Changing Conceptions of Globalization: Changing Conceptions of Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fitzsimons, Patrick

    2000-01-01

    Examines changing conceptions of globalization in education, highlighting new electronic information technologies that, rather than promoting homogeneity, are producing a stimulus for a politics of difference. Cyborgs and cyberspace are emerging as discourses of disunity and difference. The essay recommends a form of critical localism to challenge…

  18. Anticipated public health consequences of global climate change.

    PubMed

    Longstreth, J

    1991-12-01

    Human activities are placing enormous pressures on the biosphere. The introduction of new chemicals and the increasing ambient levels of existing chemicals have resulted in atmospheric degradation. This paper reviews some of the adverse effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. Because the atmospheric effects of ozone depletion are fairly well characterized, quantitative risk estimates have been developed. However, because the atmospheric effects of global warming are less understood, public health problems that could be intensified by climate change are assessed qualitatively. The interactive effects of these two phenomena are also discussed.

  19. Global change impacts on mangrove ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McKee, Karen L.

    2004-01-01

    Mangroves are tropical/subtropical communities of primarily tree species that grow in the intertidal zone. These tidal forests are important coastal ecosystems that are valued for a variety of ecological and societal goods and services. Major local threats to mangrove ecosystems worldwide include clearcutting and trimming of forests for urban, agricultural, or industrial expansion; hydrological alterations; toxic chemical spills; and eutrophication. In many countries with mangroves, much of the human population resides in the coastal zone, and their activities often negatively impact the integrity of mangrove forests. In addition, eutrophication, which is the process whereby nutrients build up to higher than normal levels in a natural system, is possibly one of the most serious threats to mangroves and associated ecosystems such as coral reefs. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at the National Wetlands Research Center are working to more fully understand global impacts on these significant ecosystems.Changes in climate and other factors may also affect mangroves, but in complex ways. Global warming may promote expansion of mangrove forests to higher latitudes and accelerate sea-level rise through melting of polar ice or steric expansion of oceans. Changes in sea level would alter flooding patterns and the structure and areal extent of mangroves. Climate change may also alter rainfall patterns, which would in turn change local salinity regimes and competitive interactions of mangroves with other wetland species. Increases in frequency or intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes in combination with sea-level rise may alter erosion and sedimentation rates in mangrove forests. Another global change factor that may directly affect mangrove growth is increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), caused by burning of fossil fuels and other factors. Elevated CO2 concentration may increase mangrove growth by stimulating photosynthesis or improving water use

  20. Sensitivity of global and regional terrestrial carbon storage to the direct CO2 effect and climate change based on the CMIP5 model intercomparison.

    PubMed

    Peng, Jing; Dan, Li; Huang, Mei

    2014-01-01

    Global and regional land carbon storage has been significantly affected by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. Based on fully coupled climate-carbon-cycle simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we investigate sensitivities of land carbon storage to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change over the world and 21 regions during the 130 years. Overall, the simulations suggest that consistently spatial positive effects of the increasing CO2 concentrations on land carbon storage are expressed with a multi-model averaged value of 1.04 PgC per ppm. The stronger positive values are mainly located in the broad areas of temperate and tropical forest, especially in Amazon basin and western Africa. However, large heterogeneity distributed for sensitivities of land carbon storage to climate change. Climate change causes decrease in land carbon storage in most tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. In these regions, decrease in soil moisture (MRSO) and enhanced drought somewhat contribute to such a decrease accompanied with rising temperature. Conversely, an increase in land carbon storage has been observed in high latitude and altitude regions (e.g., northern Asia and Tibet). The model simulations also suggest that global negative impacts of climate change on land carbon storage are predominantly attributed to decrease in land carbon storage in tropics. Although current warming can lead to an increase in land storage of high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere due to elevated vegetation growth, a risk of exacerbated future climate change may be induced due to release of carbon from tropics.

  1. Using the CMIP5 Model Intercomparison, a Study on Sensitivity of Global and Regional Terrestrial Carbon Storage to the Direct CO2 Effect and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peng, J.; Dan, L.

    2014-12-01

    Global and regional land carbon storage has been significantly affected by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. Based on fully coupled climate-carbon-cycle simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we investigate sensitivities of land carbon storage to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change over the world and 21 regions during the 130 years. Overall, the simulations suggest that consistently spatial positive effects of the increasing CO2 concentrations on land carbon storage are expressed with a multi-model averaged value of 1.04PgC per ppm. The stronger positive values are mainly located in the broad areas of temperate and tropical forest, especially in Amazon basin and western Africa. However, large heterogeneity distributed for sensitivities of land carbon storage to climate change. Climate change causes decrease in land carbon storage in most tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. In these regions, decrease in soil moisture (MRSO) and enhanced drought somewhat contribute to such a decrease accompanied with rising temperature. Conversely, an increase in land carbon storage has been observed in high latitude and altitude regions (e.g., northern Asia and Tibet). The model simulations also suggest that global negative impacts of climate change on land carbon storage are predominantly attributed to decrease in land carbon storage in tropics. Although current warming can lead to an increase in land storage of high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere due to elevated vegetation growth, a risk of exacerbated future climate change may be induced due to release of carbon from tropics. Figure CaptionsFigure 1. Spatial distribution in sensitivity of terrestrial carbon storage to upward atmospheric CO2 concentration simulated from six the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models, units: gC m-2 ppm-1. Figure 2. Same as Figure 9, but to the warming (gC m-2 K-1)

  2. Sensitivity of Global and Regional Terrestrial Carbon Storage to the Direct CO2 Effect and Climate Change Based on the CMIP5 Model Intercomparison

    PubMed Central

    Peng, Jing; Dan, Li; Huang, Mei

    2014-01-01

    Global and regional land carbon storage has been significantly affected by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. Based on fully coupled climate-carbon-cycle simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we investigate sensitivities of land carbon storage to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change over the world and 21 regions during the 130 years. Overall, the simulations suggest that consistently spatial positive effects of the increasing CO2 concentrations on land carbon storage are expressed with a multi-model averaged value of 1.04PgC per ppm. The stronger positive values are mainly located in the broad areas of temperate and tropical forest, especially in Amazon basin and western Africa. However, large heterogeneity distributed for sensitivities of land carbon storage to climate change. Climate change causes decrease in land carbon storage in most tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. In these regions, decrease in soil moisture (MRSO) and enhanced drought somewhat contribute to such a decrease accompanied with rising temperature. Conversely, an increase in land carbon storage has been observed in high latitude and altitude regions (e.g., northern Asia and Tibet). The model simulations also suggest that global negative impacts of climate change on land carbon storage are predominantly attributed to decrease in land carbon storage in tropics. Although current warming can lead to an increase in land storage of high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere due to elevated vegetation growth, a risk of exacerbated future climate change may be induced due to release of carbon from tropics. PMID:24748331

  3. Global Change Geodesy: A Geophysical Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitrovica, J. X.

    2014-12-01

    It is a truism that as the precision of geodetic measurement techniques improves, the accuracy of the geophysical modeling of processes that contribute to the observations must keep pace. Studies of the Earth's response to human-induced climate change provide many notable, and pressing, illustrations of this axiom. For example, estimates of recent ice volume changes, as inferred from satellite gravity measurements, tide gauge and satellite-altimetry records of sea level changes, or astronomical and space-geodetic constraints on Earth rotation, require improved theoretical and numerical treatments of ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment in response to the last ice age. However, the interplay between geodesy and geophysics is not a one-way street; geophysical modeling has emphasized, for example, that the geographic variability in sea level measurements - once considered a nuisance in efforts to infer long term trends - provides a powerful constraint on both the individual sources of meltwater and their sum. In this talk, I will discuss a series of case studies that demonstrate how interdisciplinary research at the interface between geodesy and geophysics has recently resolved several outstanding problems in global change research, including Walter Munk's enigma of global sea-level rise and the apparent failure to close the budget of twentieth century sea level. Moreover, in the same interdisciplinary context, I will highlight uncertainties that currently limit our understanding of polar ice sheet stability in a progressively warming world.

  4. Global Change and Human Vulnerability to Vector-Borne Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Sutherst, Robert W.

    2004-01-01

    Global change includes climate change and climate variability, land use, water storage and irrigation, human population growth and urbanization, trade and travel, and chemical pollution. Impacts on vector-borne diseases, including malaria, dengue fever, infections by other arboviruses, schistosomiasis, trypanosomiasis, onchocerciasis, and leishmaniasis are reviewed. While climate change is global in nature and poses unknown future risks to humans and natural ecosystems, other local changes are occurring more rapidly on a global scale and are having significant effects on vector-borne diseases. History is invaluable as a pointer to future risks, but direct extrapolation is no longer possible because the climate is changing. Researchers are therefore embracing computer simulation models and global change scenarios to explore the risks. Credible ranking of the extent to which different vector-borne diseases will be affected awaits a rigorous analysis. Adaptation to the changes is threatened by the ongoing loss of drugs and pesticides due to the selection of resistant strains of pathogens and vectors. The vulnerability of communities to the changes in impacts depends on their adaptive capacity, which requires both appropriate technology and responsive public health systems. The availability of resources in turn depends on social stability, economic wealth, and priority allocation of resources to public health. PMID:14726459

  5. A Change in the Solar He II EUV Global Network Structure as an Indicator of the Geo-Effectiveness of Solar Minima

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Didkovsky, L.; Gurman, J. B.

    2013-01-01

    Solar activity during 2007 - 2009 was very low, causing anomalously low thermospheric density. A comparison of solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance in the He II spectral band (26 to 34 nm) from the Solar Extreme ultraviolet Monitor (SEM), one of instruments on the Charge Element and Isotope Analysis System (CELIAS) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) for the two latest solar minima showed a decrease of the absolute irradiance of about 15 +/- 6 % during the solar minimum between Cycles 23 and 24 compared with the Cycle 22/23 minimum when a yearly running-mean filter was used. We found that some local, shorter-term minima including those with the same absolute EUV flux in the SEM spectral band show a higher concentration of spatial power in the global network structure from the 30.4 nm SOHO/Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) images for the local minimum of 1996 compared with the minima of 2008 - 2011.We interpret this higher concentration of spatial power in the transition region's global network structure as a larger number of larger-area features on the solar disk. These changes in the global network structure during solar minima may characterize, in part, the geo-effectiveness of the solar He II EUV irradiance in addition to the estimations based on its absolute levels.

  6. International earth science information network for global change decision making

    SciTech Connect

    Autrey-Hunley, C.; Kuhn, W.R.; Kasischke, E.; Trichel, M.T.; Coppola, R.

    1991-01-01

    Effective environmental decision making depends upon the ability to predict physical changes in the environment, societal responses to these changes, and how both the physical changes and societal responses will be affected by changes in government regulations, public perceptions and the environment. Technological advances in remote sensing have provided a wealth of earth science data necessary to study global change problems; the Earth Observatory System will provide an unprecedented data source in the late 1990's. The Consortium for an International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) will combine earth science data (both satellite and ground-based) with data on the social sciences (e.g., economics, demographics, public health) to support informed policy decisions and to transfer knowledge on global change and its causes to the public.

  7. Global Changes of the Water Cycle Intensity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bosilovich, Michael G.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Walker, Gregory K.

    2003-01-01

    In this study, we evaluate numerical simulations of the twentieth century climate, focusing on the changes in the intensity of the global water cycle. A new diagnostic of atmospheric water vapor cycling rate is developed and employed, that relies on constituent tracers predicted at the model time step. This diagnostic is compared to a simplified traditional calculation of cycling rate, based on monthly averages of precipitation and total water content. The mean sensitivity of both diagnostics to variations in climate forcing is comparable. However, the new diagnostic produces systematically larger values and more variability than the traditional average approach. Climate simulations were performed using SSTs of the early (1902-1921) and late (1979- 1998) twentieth century along with the appropriate C02 forcing. In general, the increase of global precipitation with the increases in SST that occurred between the early and late twentieth century is small. However, an increase of atmospheric temperature leads to a systematic increase in total precipitable water. As a result, the residence time of water in the atmosphere increased, indicating a reduction of the global cycling rate. This result was explored further using a number of 50-year climate simulations from different models forced with observed SST. The anomalies and trends in the cycling rate and hydrologic variables of different GCMs are remarkably similar. The global annual anomalies of precipitation show a significant upward trend related to the upward trend of surface temperature, during the latter half of the twentieth century. While this implies an increase in the hydrologic cycle intensity, a concomitant increase of total precipitable water again leads to a decrease in the calculated global cycling rate. An analysis of the land/sea differences shows that the simulated precipitation over land has a decreasing trend while the oceanic precipitation has an upward trend consistent with previous studies and the

  8. Marine ecosystem responses to Cenozoic global change.

    PubMed

    Norris, R D; Turner, S Kirtland; Hull, P M; Ridgwell, A

    2013-08-02

    The future impacts of anthropogenic global change on marine ecosystems are highly uncertain, but insights can be gained from past intervals of high atmospheric carbon dioxide partial pressure. The long-term geological record reveals an early Cenozoic warm climate that supported smaller polar ecosystems, few coral-algal reefs, expanded shallow-water platforms, longer food chains with less energy for top predators, and a less oxygenated ocean than today. The closest analogs for our likely future are climate transients, 10,000 to 200,000 years in duration, that occurred during the long early Cenozoic interval of elevated warmth. Although the future ocean will begin to resemble the past greenhouse world, it will retain elements of the present "icehouse" world long into the future. Changing temperatures and ocean acidification, together with rising sea level and shifts in ocean productivity, will keep marine ecosystems in a state of continuous change for 100,000 years.

  9. Global warming and changes in ocean circulation

    SciTech Connect

    Duffy, P.B.; Caldeira, K.C.

    1998-02-01

    This final report provides an overview of the goals and accomplishments of this project. Modeling and observational work has raised the possibility that global warming may cause changes in the circulation of the ocean. If such changes would occur they could have important climatic consequences. The first technical goal of this project was to investigate some of these possible changes in ocean circulation in a quantitative way, using a state-of -the-art numerical model of the ocean. Another goal was to develop our ocean model, a detailed three-dimensional numerical model of the ocean circulation and ocean carbon cycles. A major non-technical goal was to establish LLNL as a center of excellence in modelling the ocean circulation and carbon cycle.

  10. Comparison of Mediterranean Pteropod Shell Biometrics and Ultrastructure from Historical (1910 and 1921) and Present Day (2012) Samples Provides Baseline for Monitoring Effects of Global Change

    PubMed Central

    Gattuso, Jean-Pierre; Bijma, Jelle

    2017-01-01

    Anthropogenic carbon perturbation has caused decreases in seawater pH and increases in global temperatures since the start of the 20th century. The subsequent lowering of the saturation state of CaCO3 may make the secretion of skeletons more problematic for marine calcifiers. As organisms that precipitate thin aragonite shells, thecosome pteropods have been identified as being particularly vulnerable to climate change effects. Coupled with their global distribution, this makes them ideal for use as sentinel organisms. Recent studies have highlighted shell dissolution as a potential indicator of ocean acidification; however, this metric is not applicable for monitoring pH changes in supersaturated basins. In this study, the novel approach of high resolution computed tomography (CT) scanning was used to produce quantitative 3-dimensional renderings pteropod shells to assess the potential of using this method to monitor small changes in shell biometrics that may be driven by climate change drivers. An ontogenetic analysis of the shells of Cavolinia inflexa and Styliola subula collected from the Mediterranean was used to identify suitable monitoring metrics. Modern samples were then compared to historical samples of the same species, collected during the Mediterranean leg of the Thor (1910) and Dana (1921) cruises to assess whether any empirical differences could be detected. Shell densities were calculated and scanning electron microscopy was used to compare the aragonite crystal morphology. pH for the collection years was hind-cast using temperature and salinity time series with atmospheric CO2 concentrations from ice core data. Historical samples of S. subula were thicker than S. subula shells of the same size from 2012 and C. inflexa shells collected in 1910 were significantly denser than those from 2012. These results provide a baseline for future work to develop monitoring techniques for climate change in the oceans using the novel approach of high-resolution CT

  11. Comparison of Mediterranean Pteropod Shell Biometrics and Ultrastructure from Historical (1910 and 1921) and Present Day (2012) Samples Provides Baseline for Monitoring Effects of Global Change.

    PubMed

    Howes, Ella L; Eagle, Robert A; Gattuso, Jean-Pierre; Bijma, Jelle

    2017-01-01

    Anthropogenic carbon perturbation has caused decreases in seawater pH and increases in global temperatures since the start of the 20th century. The subsequent lowering of the saturation state of CaCO3 may make the secretion of skeletons more problematic for marine calcifiers. As organisms that precipitate thin aragonite shells, thecosome pteropods have been identified as being particularly vulnerable to climate change effects. Coupled with their global distribution, this makes them ideal for use as sentinel organisms. Recent studies have highlighted shell dissolution as a potential indicator of ocean acidification; however, this metric is not applicable for monitoring pH changes in supersaturated basins. In this study, the novel approach of high resolution computed tomography (CT) scanning was used to produce quantitative 3-dimensional renderings pteropod shells to assess the potential of using this method to monitor small changes in shell biometrics that may be driven by climate change drivers. An ontogenetic analysis of the shells of Cavolinia inflexa and Styliola subula collected from the Mediterranean was used to identify suitable monitoring metrics. Modern samples were then compared to historical samples of the same species, collected during the Mediterranean leg of the Thor (1910) and Dana (1921) cruises to assess whether any empirical differences could be detected. Shell densities were calculated and scanning electron microscopy was used to compare the aragonite crystal morphology. pH for the collection years was hind-cast using temperature and salinity time series with atmospheric CO2 concentrations from ice core data. Historical samples of S. subula were thicker than S. subula shells of the same size from 2012 and C. inflexa shells collected in 1910 were significantly denser than those from 2012. These results provide a baseline for future work to develop monitoring techniques for climate change in the oceans using the novel approach of high-resolution CT

  12. Central Africa: Global climate change and development. Synopsis

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1992-01-01

    Central Africa contains the largest remaining contiguous expanse of moist tropical forest on the African continent and the second largest in the world. However, deforestation rates are rising as the result of rapid population growth, inappropriate economic policies, economic downturns, and weak management capacities. If clearing rates continue to rise, a substantial amount of carbon dioxide will be released into the atmosphere, thus contributing to global climate change. The report summarizes a study designed as a first step in understanding the complex dynamics of the causes and effects of global climate change in Central Africa. The current state of the region's forests, greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and biomass burning, and the potential impacts of global climate change are discussed.

  13. No easy answers for global climate change research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wakefield, J.

    First the word was that not only car emissions but cow burps may play a significant role in global warming. Then, the story turned to rice paddies and cockroaches as likely sources of greenhouse gases. Sound confusing? It should.Now even experts readily admit global warming research is chock-full of uncertainties. And these issues offer only a freeze-frame of the broader climate change motion picture. Everything from whether sea levels will rise to whether hurricanes will be come more frequent to whether solar forcing plays a role in all of this is now in question. This means that making and implementing effective international climate change policies remains a tenuous process—even at a time when the overall funding for global change research is at an all-time high in the United States.

  14. Knowledge of Global Climate Change: View of Iranian University Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salehi, Sadegh; Nejad, Zahra Pazuki; Mahmoudi, Hossein; Burkart, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    This article assesses students' understanding of global climate change (GCC) and social factors affecting it. It was hypothesized that students who demonstrate pro-environmental attitudes are more likely to possess higher knowledge of GCC. It was further hypothesized that trust and personal efficiency would have a positive effect on the knowledge…

  15. Global Cooling: Effect of Urban Albedo on Global Temperature

    SciTech Connect

    Akbari, Hashem; Menon, Surabi; Rosenfeld, Arthur

    2007-05-22

    In many urban areas, pavements and roofs constitute over 60% of urban surfaces (roof 20-25%, pavements about 40%). The roof and the pavement albedo can be increased by about 0.25 and 0.10, respectively, resulting in a net albedo increase for urban areas of about 0.1. Many studies have demonstrated building cooling-energy savings in excess of 20% upon raising roof reflectivity from an existing 10-20% to about 60%. We estimate U.S. potential savings in excess of $1 billion (B) per year in net annual energy bills. Increasing albedo of urban surfaces can reduce the summertime urban temperature and improve the urban air quality. Increasing the urban albedo has the added benefit of reflecting more of the incoming global solar radiation and countering the effect of global warming. We estimate that increasing albedo of urban areas by 0.1 results in an increase of 3 x 10{sup -4} in Earth albedo. Using a simple global model, the change in air temperature in lowest 1.8 km of the atmosphere is estimated at 0.01K. Modelers predict a warming of about 3K in the next 60 years (0.05K/year). Change of 0.1 in urban albedo will result in 0.01K global cooling, a delay of {approx}0.2 years in global warming. This 0.2 years delay in global warming is equivalent to 10 Gt reduction in CO2 emissions.

  16. Recommendation for funding the 1992 Global Change Summer Institute: Industrial ecology and global change

    SciTech Connect

    Fein, J.S.

    1992-12-31

    A summer institute on Industrial Ecology and Global Change was held at Snow Mass, Colorado, July 20--31, 1992. Topics of discussion included the following: the patterns and prospects of global industrialization; the vulnerability of the global environment to human activity; how industrial activity might be reconfigured in response to a deeper understanding of the major biogeochemical cycles in which this activity is embedded; how industrial activity might be reconfigured in response to a deeper understanding of associated exotic disturbances of the environment; interactions of human activity with basic environmental cycles; human activity in the form of exotic disturbance of the environment; and the dynamics of industrial development and the environmental implications.

  17. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santer, B.

    2009-12-01

    The first Key Finding from the recent USGCRP report “Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States” is: 1. Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced. Global temperature has increased over the past 50 years. This observed increase is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. This statement is based on a combination of observational, theoretical and model based analyses and are a consensus opinion of the report’s Lead Author team. The scientific rationale supporting this consensus will be summarized.

  18. Global coccolithophore diversity: Drivers and future change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Brien, Colleen J.; Vogt, Meike; Gruber, Nicolas

    2016-01-01

    We use the MAREDAT global compilation of coccolithophore species distribution and combine them with observations of climatological environmental conditions to determine the global-scale distribution of coccolithophore species diversity, its underlying drivers, and potential future changes. To this end, we developed a feed-forward neural network, which predicts 78% of the observed variance in coccolithophore diversity from environmental input variables (temperature, PAR, nitrate, silicic acid, mixed layer depth, excess phosphate (P∗) and chlorophyll). Light and temperature are the strongest predictors of coccolithophore diversity. Coccolithophore diversity is highest in the low latitudes, where coccolithophores are a relatively dominant component of the total phytoplankton community. Particularly high diversity is predicted in the western equatorial Pacific and the southern Indian Ocean, with additional peaks at approximately 30°N and 30°S. The global, zonal mean pattern is dominated by the Pacific Ocean, which shows a clear latitudinal gradient with diversity peaking at the equator, whereas in the Atlantic Ocean diversity is highest in the subtropics. We find a unimodal relationship between coccolithophore diversity and biomass, as has previously been observed for total phytoplankton assemblages. In contrast, diversity shows a negative relationship with total chlorophyll. Applying our diversity model to projections from the CMIP5 climate models, we project an increase in the diversity of coccolithophore assemblages by the end of this century.

  19. Environmental variation and population responses to global change.

    PubMed

    Lawson, Callum R; Vindenes, Yngvild; Bailey, Liam; van de Pol, Martijn

    2015-07-01

    Species' responses to environmental changes such as global warming are affected not only by trends in mean conditions, but also by natural and human-induced environmental fluctuations. Methods are needed to predict how such environmental variation affects ecological and evolutionary processes, in order to design effective strategies to conserve biodiversity under global change. Here, we review recent theoretical and empirical studies to assess: (1) how populations respond to changes in environmental variance, and (2) how environmental variance affects population responses to changes in mean conditions. Contrary to frequent claims, empirical studies show that increases in environmental variance can increase as well as decrease long-term population growth rates. Moreover, environmental variance can alter and even reverse the effects of changes in the mean environment, such that even if environmental variance remains constant, omitting it from population models compromises their ability to predict species' responses to changes in mean conditions. Drawing on theory relating these effects of environmental variance to the curvatures of population growth responses to the environment, we outline how species' traits such as phylogenetic history and body mass could be used to predict their responses to global change under future environmental variability.

  20. Climate change. A global threat to cardiopulmonary health.

    PubMed

    Rice, Mary B; Thurston, George D; Balmes, John R; Pinkerton, Kent E

    2014-03-01

    Recent changes in the global climate system have resulted in excess mortality and morbidity, particularly among susceptible individuals with preexisting cardiopulmonary disease. These weather patterns are projected to continue and intensify as a result of rising CO2 levels, according to the most recent projections by climate scientists. In this Pulmonary Perspective, motivated by the American Thoracic Society Committees on Environmental Health Policy and International Health, we review the global human health consequences of projected changes in climate for which there is a high level of confidence and scientific evidence of health effects, with a focus on cardiopulmonary health. We discuss how many of the climate-related health effects will disproportionally affect people from economically disadvantaged parts of the world, who contribute relatively little to CO2 emissions. Last, we discuss the financial implications of climate change solutions from a public health perspective and argue for a harmonized approach to clean air and climate change policies.

  1. Global Change and the Function and Distribution of Wetlands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Middleton, Beth A.

    2012-01-01

    The Global Change Ecology and Wetlands book series will highlight the latest research from the world leaders in the field of climate change in wetlands. Global Change and the Function and Distribution of Wetlands highlights information of importance to wetland ecologists.  The chapters include syntheses of international studies on the effects of drought on function and regeneration in wetlands, sea level rise and the distribution of mangrove swamps, former distributions of swamp species and future lessons from paleoecology, and shifts in atmospheric emissions across geographical regions in wetlands.  Overall, the book will contribute to a better understanding of the potential effects of climate change on world wetland distribution and function.

  2. Climate Change. A Global Threat to Cardiopulmonary Health

    PubMed Central

    Thurston, George D.; Balmes, John R.; Pinkerton, Kent E.

    2014-01-01

    Recent changes in the global climate system have resulted in excess mortality and morbidity, particularly among susceptible individuals with preexisting cardiopulmonary disease. These weather patterns are projected to continue and intensify as a result of rising CO2 levels, according to the most recent projections by climate scientists. In this Pulmonary Perspective, motivated by the American Thoracic Society Committees on Environmental Health Policy and International Health, we review the global human health consequences of projected changes in climate for which there is a high level of confidence and scientific evidence of health effects, with a focus on cardiopulmonary health. We discuss how many of the climate-related health effects will disproportionally affect people from economically disadvantaged parts of the world, who contribute relatively little to CO2 emissions. Last, we discuss the financial implications of climate change solutions from a public health perspective and argue for a harmonized approach to clean air and climate change policies. PMID:24400619

  3. Dawn of astronomy and global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakamura, Tsuko

    2007-12-01

    The author proposes that the birth of astronomy in ancient civilizations, which took place nearly simultaneously (4000 - 5000 years ago) around the Nile, Tigris and Euphrates, Indus, and the Yellow River, was caused by the global climate change (cooling and drying) that started about 5000 years ago after the hypsithermal (high-temperature) period. It is also pointed out that a few names of Twenty-Four Qi's appearing in old Chinese calendars are remnants of the calm climate in the hypsithermal period. It is discussed that numerous meteorological records seen in divination inscriptions on bones and tortoise-shells excavated at the capital of the ancient Yin (Shang) dynasty suggest occurrence of the climatic cooling and drying at that time and this change triggered spawning the early Chinese astronomy.

  4. Linked Open Data in the Global Change Information System (GCIS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tilmes, Curt A.

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Global Change Research Program (http://globalchange.gov) coordinates and integrates federal research on changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP is developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will centralize access to data and information related to global change across the U.S. federal government. The first implementation will focus on the 2013 National Climate Assessment (NCA) . (http://assessment.globalchange.gov) The NCA integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the USGCRP; analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. The NCA has received over 500 distinct technical inputs to the process, many of which are reports distilling and synthesizing even more information, coming from thousands of individuals around the federal, state and local governments, academic institutions and non-governmental organizations. The GCIS will present a web-based version of the NCA including annotations linking the findings and content of the NCA with the scientific research, datasets, models, observations, etc. that led to its conclusions. It will use semantic tagging and a linked data approach, assigning globally unique, persistent, resolvable identifiers to all of the related entities and capturing and presenting the relationships between them, both internally and referencing out to other linked data sources and back to agency data centers. The developing W3C PROV Data Model and ontology will be used to capture the provenance trail and present it in both human readable web pages and machine readable formats such as RDF and SPARQL. This will improve visibility into the assessment process, increase

  5. Global climate change and terrestrial net primary production

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Melillo, Jerry M.; Mcguire, A. D.; Kicklighter, David W.; Moore, Berrien, III; Vorosmarty, Charles J.; Schloss, Annette L.

    1993-01-01

    A process-based model was used to estimate global patterns of net primary production and soil nitrogen cycling for contemporary climate conditions and current atmospheric CO2 concentration. Over half of the global annual net primary production was estimated to occur in the tropics, with most of the production attributable to tropical evergreen forest. The effects of CO2 doubling and associated climate changes were also explored. The responses in tropical and dry temperate ecosystems were dominated by CO2, but those in northern and moist temperate ecosystems reflected the effects of temperature on nitrogen availability.

  6. Global climate change is confounding species conservation strategies.

    PubMed

    Koopowitz, Harold; Hawkins, Bradford A

    2012-06-01

    Most organisms face similar problems with respect to their conservation in the face of global climate change. Here, we examine probable effects of climate change on the hyperdiverse plant family Orchidaceae. In the 20th century, the major concerns for orchid conservation revolved around unsustainable harvest for the orchid trade and, more importantly, land conversion from natural ecosystems to those unable to support wild orchid populations. Land conversion included logging, fire regimes and forest conversions to agricultural systems. Although those forms of degradation continue, an additional suite of threats has emerged, fueled by global climate change. Global climate change involves more than responses of orchid populations to increases in ambient temperature. Increasing temperature induces secondary effects that can be more significant than simple changes in temperature. Among these new threats are extended and prolonged fire seasons, rising sea levels, increases in cyclonic storms, seasonal climate shifts, changes in orthographic wind dew point and increased drought. The long-term outlook for orchid biodiversity in the wild is dismal, as it is for many animal groups, and we need to start rethinking strategies for conservation in a rapidly changing world.

  7. Interfacing remote sensing and geographic information systems for global environmental change research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Jae K.; Randolph, J. C.; Lulla, Kamlesh P.; Helfert, Michael R.

    1993-01-01

    Because changes in the Earth's environment have become major global issues, continuous, longterm scientific information is required to assess global problems such as deforestation, desertification, greenhouse effects and climate variations. Global change studies require understanding of interactions of complex processes regulating the Earth system. Space-based Earth observation is an essential element in global change research for documenting changes in Earth environment. It provides synoptic data for conceptual predictive modeling of future environmental change. This paper provides a brief overview of remote sensing technology from the perspective of global change research.

  8. Do disease cycles follow changes in weather? Researchers ponder global warming`s effect on the carriers of human illness

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, K.S.

    1996-07-01

    Two years ago, Mother Nature one-upped an Institute of Medicine (IOM) committee big time. In 1991, the committee had wracked its collective brains to come up with a plausible epidemic scenario for a report on disease emergence. The team finally settled on a potential southern US outbreak of yellow fever, a well-known African viral disease carried by mosquitoes. The idea was realistic, if not particularly imaginative. Yellow fever is an old problem. Shortly after the report on microbe-induced epidemics was released, Mother Nature displayed tremendous creativity. In the spring of 1993, a mysterious virus began killing young people in the Southwest. The culprit turned out to be a previously unrecognized strain of hantavirus, which causes a deadly respiratory disease. Emerging from its natural host, the common deer mouse, the hantavirus strain affected at least 131 people. Half died. Today, emerging viruses have shocked the public and sent scientists searching for causes of epidemics and factors that determine how serious disease outbreaks might be be. One factor gaining attention climate. To learn how global warming might affect mosquitoes, mice and other microbe carriers, biologists are studying diseases within an environmental context. This article discusses the work in this area and some of the results, speculations, and future areas of interest.

  9. NASA NDATC Global Climate Change Education Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bennett, B.; Wood, E.; Meyer, D.; Maynard, N.; Pandya, R. E.

    2009-12-01

    This project aligns with NASA’s Strategic Goal 3A - “Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs and focuses on funding from the GCCE Funding Category 2: Strengthen the Teaching and Learning About Global Climate Change Within Formal Education Systems. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report (2007) those communities with the least amount of resources will be most vulnerable, and least likely to adapt to the impacts brought on by a changing climate. Further, the level of vulnerability of these communities is directly correlated with their ability to implement short, medium and long range mitigation measures. The North Dakota Association of Tribal Colleges (NDATC) has established a climate change education initiative among its six member Tribal Colleges and Universities (TCUs). The goal of this project is to enhance the TCUs capacity to educate their constituents on the science of climate change and mitigation strategies specifically as they apply to Indian Country. NDATC is comprised of six American Indian tribally chartered colleges (TCUs) which include: Cankdeska Cikana Community College, serving the Spirit Lake Dakota Nation; Fort Berthold Community College, serving the Mandan, Hidatsa, and Arikara Nation; Sitting Bull College, serving the Hunkpapa Lakota and Dakota Nation; Turtle Mountain Community College, serving the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa; Sisseton Wahpeton College serving the Sisseton and Wahpeton Dakota Nation, and United Tribes Technical College, serving over 70 Tribal groups from across the United States. The purpose of this project is to (1) increase awareness of climate change and its potential impacts in Indian Country through education for students, faculty and presidents of the TCUs as well as Tribal leadership; (2) increase the capacity of TCUs to respond to this global threat on behalf of tribal people; (3) develop climate change mitigation strategies relevant to Indian

  10. Global climate change and infectious diseases.

    PubMed

    Shuman, E K

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is occurring as a result of warming of the earth's atmosphere due to human activity generating excess amounts of greenhouse gases. Because of its potential impact on the hydrologic cycle and severe weather events, climate change is expected to have an enormous effect on human health, including on the burden and distribution of many infectious diseases. The infectious diseases that will be most affected by climate change include those that are spread by insect vectors and by contaminated water. The burden of adverse health effects due to these infectious diseases will fall primarily on developing countries, while it is the developed countries that are primarily responsible for climate change. It is up to governments and individuals to take the lead in halting climate change, and we must increase our understanding of the ecology of infectious diseases in order to protect vulnerable populations.

  11. Neutron Capture Rates near A=130 which Effect a Global Change to the r-Process Abundance Distribution

    SciTech Connect

    Surman, Rebecca; Beun, Joshua; Mclaughlin, Gail C; Hix, William Raphael

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the impact of neutron capture rates near the A=130 peak on the r-process abundance pattern. We show that these capture rates can alter the abundances of individual nuclear species, not only in the region of A=130 peak but also throughout the abundance pattern. We discuss in general the nonequilibrium processes that produce these abundance changes and determine which capture rates have the most significant impact.

  12. Global change effects on the long-term feeding ecology and contaminant exposures of East Greenland polar bears.

    PubMed

    McKinney, Melissa A; Iverson, Sara J; Fisk, Aaron T; Sonne, Christian; Rigét, Frank F; Letcher, Robert J; Arts, Michael T; Born, Erik W; Rosing-Asvid, Aqqalu; Dietz, Rune

    2013-08-01

    Rapid climate changes are occurring in the Arctic, with substantial repercussions for arctic ecosystems. It is challenging to assess ecosystem changes in remote polar environments, but one successful approach has entailed monitoring the diets of upper trophic level consumers. Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) and fatty acid carbon isotope (δ(13) C-FA) patterns were used to assess diets of East Greenland (EG) polar bears (Ursus maritimus) (n = 310) over the past three decades. QFASA-generated diet estimates indicated that, on average, EG bears mainly consumed arctic ringed seals (47.5 ± 2.1%), migratory subarctic harp (30.6 ± 1.5%) and hooded (16.7 ± 1.3%) seals and rarely, if ever, consumed bearded seals, narwhals or walruses. Ringed seal consumption declined by 14%/decade over 28 years (90.1 ± 2.5% in 1984 to 33.9 ± 11.1% in 2011). Hooded seal consumption increased by 9.5%/decade (0.0 ± 0.0% in 1984 to 25.9 ± 9.1% in 2011). This increase may include harp seal, since hooded and harp seal FA signatures were not as well differentiated relative to other prey species. Declining δ(13) C-FA ratios supported shifts from more nearshore/benthic/ice-associated prey to more offshore/pelagic/open-water-associated prey, consistent with diet estimates. Increased hooded seal and decreased ringed seal consumption occurred during years when the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was lower. Thus, periods with warmer temperatures and less sea ice were associated with more subarctic and less arctic seal species consumption. These changes in the relative abundance, accessibility, or distribution of arctic and subarctic marine mammals may have health consequences for EG polar bears. For example, the diet change resulted in consistently slower temporal declines in adipose levels of legacy persistent organic pollutants, as the subarctic seals have higher contaminant burdens than arctic seals. Overall, considerable changes are occurring in the EG

  13. From global change science to action with social sciences

    SciTech Connect

    Weaver, C. P.; Mooney, Sian; Allen, D.; Beller-Simms, Nancy; Fish, T.; Grambsch, A.; Hohenstein, W.; Jacobs, Kathy; Kenney, Melissa A.; Lane, Meredith A.; Langner, L.; Larson, E.; McGinnis, D. L.; Moss, Richard H.; Nichols, L. G.; Nierenberg, Claudia; Seyller, E. A.; Stern, Paul; Winthrop, R.

    2014-08-01

    US efforts to integrate social and biophysical sciences to address the issue of global change exist within a wider movement to understand global change as a societal challenge and to inform policy. Insights from the social sciences can help transform global change research into action.

  14. Global patterns of change in discharge regimes for 2100

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sperna Weiland, F. C.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Kwadijk, J. C. J.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2012-04-01

    This study makes a thorough global assessment of the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes and their accompanying uncertainties. Meteorological data from twelve GCMs (SRES scenarios A1B and control experiment 20C3M) are used to drive the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. This reveals in which regions of the world changes in hydrology can be detected that have a high likelihood and are consistent amongst the ensemble of GCMs. New compared to existing studies is: (1) the comparison of spatial patterns of regime changes and (2) the quantification of notable consistent changes calculated relative to the GCM specific natural variability. The resulting consistency maps indicate in which regions the likelihood of hydrological change is large. Projections of different GCMs diverge widely. This underscores the need of using a multi-model ensemble. Despite discrepancies amongst models, consistent results are revealed: by 2100 the GCMs project consistent decreases in discharge for southern Europe, southern Australia, parts of Africa and southwestern South-America. Discharge decreases strongly for most African rivers, the Murray and the Danube while discharge of monsoon influenced rivers slightly increases. In the Arctic regions river discharge increases and a phase-shift towards earlier peaks is observed. Results are comparable to previous global studies, with a few exceptions. Globally we calculated an ensemble mean discharge increase of more than ten percent. This increase contradicts previously estimated decreases, which is amongst others caused by the use of smaller GCM ensembles and different reference periods.

  15. Global patterns of change in discharge regimes for 2100

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sperna Weiland, F. C.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Kwadijk, J. C. J.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2011-12-01

    This study makes a thorough global assessment of the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes and their accompanying uncertainties. Meteorological data from twelve GCMs (SRES scenarios A1B, and control experiment 20C3M) are used to drive the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. We reveal in which regions of the world changes in hydrology can be detected that are significant and consistent amongst the ensemble of GCMs. New compared to existing studies is: (1) the comparison of spatial patterns of regime changes and (2) the quantification of consistent significant change calculatesd relative to both the natural variability and the inter-model spread. The resulting consistency maps indicate in which regions likelihood of hydrological change is large. Projections of different GCMs diverge widely. This underscores the need of using a multi-model ensemble. Despite discrepancies amongst models, consistent results are revealed: by 2100 the GCMs project consistent decreases in discharge for southern Europe, southern Australia, parts of Africa and southwestern South-America. Discharge decreases are large for most African rivers, the Murray and the Danube. While discharge of Monsoon influenced rivers slightly increases. In the Arctic regions river discharge increases and a phase-shift towards earlier peaks is observed. Results are comparable to previous global studies, with a few exceptions. Globally we calculated an ensemble mean discharge increase of more than ten percent. This increase contradicts previously estimated decreases, which is amongst others caused by the use of smaller GCM ensembles and different reference periods.

  16. Global Climate Change Adaptation Priorities for Biodiversity and Food Security

    PubMed Central

    Hannah, Lee; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hole, David G.; Seo, Changwan; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Peterson, A. Townsend; Roehrdanz, Patrick R.

    2013-01-01

    International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services. PMID:23991125

  17. Global climate change adaptation priorities for biodiversity and food security.

    PubMed

    Hannah, Lee; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hole, David G; Seo, Changwan; Butchart, Stuart H M; Peterson, A Townsend; Roehrdanz, Patrick R

    2013-01-01

    International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.

  18. Global climate change impacts on forests and markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, Xiaohui; Sohngen, Brent; Kim, John B.; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2016-03-01

    This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, the MC2 model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase by approximately 30% over the century. Aboveground forest carbon storage also is projected to increase, by approximately 26 Pg C by 2115, as a result of climate change, potentially providing an offset to emissions from other sectors. The effects of climate mitigation policies in the energy sector are then examined. When climate mitigation in the energy sector reduces warming, we project a smaller increase in forest outputs over the timeframe of the analysis, and we project a reduction in the sink capacity of forests of around 12 Pg C by 2115.

  19. Global climate change crosses state boundaries

    SciTech Connect

    Changnon, S.A.

    1996-12-31

    The hot, dry summer of 1988 brought the specter of global warming a bit too close for comfort. {open_quotes}Scorching heat, not scientific models, attracted media attention,{close_quotes} says Stanley A. Changnon, senior scientist with the Illinois State Water Survey in Champaign, Illinois. Rising temperatures in the late 1980`s prompted individual states to begin to take action to curb greenhouse-gas emissions. A 1990 report by the National Governors Association identified two guiding principles for addressing climate change issues. {open_quotes}First, that energy policy must be at the center of any efforts to control greenhouse-gas emissions. Second, that state can...restrict emissions through state policies related to public utilities, land use, transportation, and even taxation,{close_quotes} Changnon says. Even if concerns for global warming prove to be overblown, states decided to act for broader economic and environmental reasons. Such initiatives not only save money, but they improve air quality and leave the nation more energy independent,{close_quotes} Changnon says.

  20. Global Change. Teaching Activities on Global Change for Grades 4-6.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Geological Survey (Dept. of Interior), Reston, VA.

    This packet contains a series of teaching guides on global change. The series includes lessons on dendrochronology; land, air, and water; and island living. Included is information such as : laws of straws; where land, air, and water meet; and Earth as home. Each section provides an introductory description of the activity, the purpose of the…

  1. Global Governance for Health: how to motivate political change?

    PubMed

    McNeill, D; Ottersen, O P

    2015-07-01

    In this article, we address a central theme that was discussed at the Durham Health Summit: how can politics be brought back into global health governance and figure much more prominently in discussions around policy? We begin by briefly summarizing the report of the Lancet - University of Oslo Commission on Global Governance for Health: 'The Political Origins of Health Inequity' Ottersen et al. In order to provide compelling evidence of the central argument, the Commission selected seven case studies relating to, inter alia, economic and fiscal policy, food security, and foreign trade and investment agreements. Based on an analysis of these studies, the report concludes that the problems identified are often due to political choices: an unwillingness to change the global system of governance. This raises the question: what is the most effective way that a report of this kind can be used to motivate policy-makers, and the public at large, to demand change? What kind of moral or rational argument is most likely to lead to action? In this paper we assess the merits of various alternative perspectives: health as an investment; health as a global public good; health and human security; health and human development; health as a human right; health and global justice. We conclude that what is required in order to motivate change is a more explicitly political and moral perspective - favouring the later rather than the earlier alternatives just listed.

  2. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming.

    PubMed

    Lineman, Maurice; Do, Yuno; Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined.

  3. White House Conference on Global Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-11-01

    President Clinton has directed the White House office on Environmental Policy to coordinate an interagency process to develop a plan to fulfill the commitment he made in his Earth Day address on April 21, 1993. This plan will become the cornerstone of the Climate Change Plan that will be completed shortly after the Rio Accord enters into force. The Office on Environmental Policy established the Interagency Climate Change Mitigation Group to draw on the expertise of federal agencies including the National Economic Council; the Council of Economic Advisors; the Office of Science and Technology Policy; the Office of Management and Budget; the National Security Council; the Domestic Policy Council; the Environmental Protection Agency; and the Departments of Energy, Transportation, Agriculture, Interior, Treasury, Commerce, and State. Working groups have been established to examine six key policy areas: energy demand, energy supply, joint implementation, methane and other gases, sinks, and transportation. The purpose of the White House Conference on Global Climate Change was to ``tap the real-world experiences`` of diverse participants and seek ideas and information for meeting the President`s goals. During the opening session, senior administration officials defined the challenge ahead and encouraged open and frank conversation about the best possible ways to meet it.

  4. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined. PMID:26418127

  5. Resource subsidies between stream and terrestrial ecosystems under global change.

    PubMed

    Larsen, Stefano; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D; Marti, Eugenia

    2016-07-01

    Streams and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by permeable boundaries that are crossed by resource subsidies. Although the importance of these subsidies for riverine ecosystems is increasingly recognized, little is known about how they may be influenced by global environmental change. Drawing from available evidence, in this review we propose a conceptual framework to evaluate the effects of global change on the quality and spatiotemporal dynamics of stream-terrestrial subsidies. We illustrate how changes to hydrological and temperature regimes, atmospheric CO2 concentration, land use and the distribution of nonindigenous species can influence subsidy fluxes by affecting the biology and ecology of donor and recipient systems and the physical characteristics of stream-riparian boundaries. Climate-driven changes in the physiology and phenology of organisms with complex life cycles will influence their development time, body size and emergence patterns, with consequences for adjacent terrestrial consumers. Also, novel species interactions can modify subsidy dynamics via complex bottom-up and top-down effects. Given the seasonality and pulsed nature of subsidies, alterations of the temporal and spatial synchrony of resource availability to consumers across ecosystems are likely to result in ecological mismatches that can scale up from individual responses, to communities, to ecosystems. Similarly, altered hydrology, temperature, CO2 concentration and land use will modify the recruitment and quality of riparian vegetation, the timing of leaf abscission and the establishment of invasive riparian species. Along with morphological changes to stream-terrestrial boundaries, these will alter the use and fluxes of allochthonous subsidies associated with stream ecosystems. Future research should aim to understand how subsidy dynamics will be affected by key drivers of global change, including agricultural intensification, increasing water use and biotic

  6. Resource subsidies between stream and terrestrial ecosystems under global change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Larsen, Stefano; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D.; Marti Roca, Maria Eugenia

    2016-01-01

    Streams and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by permeable boundaries that are crossed by resource subsidies. Although the importance of these subsidies for riverine ecosystems is increasingly recognized, little is known about how they may be influenced by global environmental change. Drawing from available evidence, in this review we propose a conceptual framework to evaluate the effects of global change on the quality and spatiotemporal dynamics of stream–terrestrial subsidies. We illustrate how changes to hydrological and temperature regimes, atmospheric CO2 concentration, land use and the distribution of nonindigenous species can influence subsidy fluxes by affecting the biology and ecology of donor and recipient systems and the physical characteristics of stream–riparian boundaries. Climate-driven changes in the physiology and phenology of organisms with complex life cycles will influence their development time, body size and emergence patterns, with consequences for adjacent terrestrial consumers. Also, novel species interactions can modify subsidy dynamics via complex bottom-up and top-down effects. Given the seasonality and pulsed nature of subsidies, alterations of the temporal and spatial synchrony of resource availability to consumers across ecosystems are likely to result in ecological mismatches that can scale up from individual responses, to communities, to ecosystems. Similarly, altered hydrology, temperature, CO2 concentration and land use will modify the recruitment and quality of riparian vegetation, the timing of leaf abscission and the establishment of invasive riparian species. Along with morphological changes to stream–terrestrial boundaries, these will alter the use and fluxes of allochthonous subsidies associated with stream ecosystems. Future research should aim to understand how subsidy dynamics will be affected by key drivers of global change, including agricultural intensification, increasing water use and biotic

  7. Multi-year effects of feral sorghum spp under ambient and global change conditions in sunlit mesocosms

    EPA Science Inventory

    Background/Questions/Methods Biofuel crops, proposed as a means to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, raise concerns regarding ecological risks of their escape from cultivation. We report here second year results of our study on potential effects of feral biofuel crops on nati...

  8. Boreal forest health and global change.

    PubMed

    Gauthier, S; Bernier, P; Kuuluvainen, T; Shvidenko, A Z; Schepaschenko, D G

    2015-08-21

    The boreal forest, one of the largest biomes on Earth, provides ecosystem services that benefit society at levels ranging from local to global. Currently, about two-thirds of the area covered by this biome is under some form of management, mostly for wood production. Services such as climate regulation are also provided by both the unmanaged and managed boreal forests. Although most of the boreal forests have retained the resilience to cope with current disturbances, projected environmental changes of unprecedented speed and amplitude pose a substantial threat to their health. Management options to reduce these threats are available and could be implemented, but economic incentives and a greater focus on the boreal biome in international fora are needed to support further adaptation and mitigation actions.

  9. Global Environmental Change: Modifying Human Contributions Through Education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carter, Lynne M.

    1998-12-01

    The 1995 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1996) Science report concludes that evidence now available "points toward a discernible human influence on global climate" (p. 439). Reductions in emissions will require changes in human behavior. This study assessed whether gains in global environmental change knowledge would lead to changes in human behaviors that could be deemed environmentally responsible. The study assessed the impact on participant behavior of a two-and-one-half day National Informal Educators Workshop and Videoconference held November 14-16, 1994. The workshops were located in seven down-link sites around the continental U.S. and Hawaii. The program utilized a variety of pedagogical techniques during five hours of satellite programming with national expertise on global change topics (natural variability, greenhouse effect, ozone depletion, ecosystem response, and population and resource distribution) and applications of that information with local experts in regional workshops. Participants implemented many personal and professional behavior changes after participation in this program. Six behavior change scales were created from assessment of survey responses (four coefficient alphas were above .7, one was .68, and one was .58). Personal behavior changes grouped into three categories: Use of Fewer Resources (acts of everyday life generally under volitional control), Purchasing Choices/Options (less frequent acts, not under total volitional control, with significant environmental effect over the lifetime of the decision, e.g., an automobile) and Increased Awareness and Discussion (indicating changes in "habits of mind"). The professional behavior changes also grouped into three categories: Curriculum Development (developing/revising curricula including new knowledge); Networking (with colleagues from the program); and Office Procedures (reflecting environmentally responsible behavior). The statistically significant behavior changes

  10. Persistent Identification of Agents and Objects of Global Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tilmes, C.; Fox, P. A.; Waple, A.; Zednik, S.

    2012-12-01

    "Global Change" includes climate change, ecological change, land-use changes and host of other interacting complex systems including societal and institutional implications. This vast body of information includes scientific research, data, measurements, models, analyses, assessments, etc. It is produced by a collection of multi-disciplinary researchers and organizations from around the world and demand for this information is increasing from a multitude of different audiences and stakeholders. The identification and organization of the agents and objects of global change information and their inter-relationships and contributions to the whole story of change is critical for conveying the state of knowledge, its complexity as well as syntheses and key messages to researchers, decision makers, and the public. The U.S. Global Change Research Program (http://globalchange.gov) coordinates and integrates federal research on changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP is developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will organize and present our best understanding of global change, and all the contributing information that leads to that understanding, including the provenance needed to trust and use that information. The first implementation will provide provenance for the National Climate Assessment (NCA). (http://assessment.globalchange.gov) The NCA must integrate, evaluate, and interpret the findings of the USGCRP; analyze the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and analyze current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. It also assesses information at the regional scale across the Nation. A synthesis report is required not less frequently than every four years and the next

  11. Marine viruses and global climate change.

    PubMed

    Danovaro, Roberto; Corinaldesi, Cinzia; Dell'anno, Antonio; Fuhrman, Jed A; Middelburg, Jack J; Noble, Rachel T; Suttle, Curtis A

    2011-11-01

    Sea-surface warming, sea-ice melting and related freshening, changes in circulation and mixing regimes, and ocean acidification induced by the present climate changes are modifying marine ecosystem structure and function and have the potential to alter the cycling of carbon and nutrients in surface oceans. Changing climate has direct and indirect consequences on marine viruses, including cascading effects on biogeochemical cycles, food webs, and the metabolic balance of the ocean. We discuss here a range of case studies of climate change and the potential consequences on virus function, viral assemblages and virus-host interactions. In turn, marine viruses influence directly and indirectly biogeochemical cycles, carbon sequestration capacity of the oceans and the gas exchange between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. We cannot yet predict whether the viruses will exacerbate or attenuate the magnitude of climate changes on marine ecosystems, but we provide evidence that marine viruses interact actively with the present climate change and are a key biotic component that is able to influence the oceans' feedback on climate change. Long-term and wide spatial-scale studies, and improved knowledge of host-virus dynamics in the world's oceans will permit the incorporation of the viral component into future ocean climate models and increase the accuracy of the predictions of the climate change impacts on the function of the oceans.

  12. Exposure-response analyses of the effects of pregabalin in patients with fibromyalgia using daily pain scores and patient global impression of change.

    PubMed

    Byon, Wonkyung; Ouellet, Daniele; Chew, Marci; Ito, Kaori; Burger, Paula; Pauer, Lynne; Zeiher, Bernhardt; Corrigan, Brian

    2010-07-01

    Data from 4 phase 2/3 studies were pooled to characterize the exposure response of daily pregabalin (150-600 mg) in patients with fibromyalgia using self-assessed daily pain scores (PAIN) and end-of-treatment patient global impression of change (PGIC). The exposure responses of both endpoints were characterized by an Emax model using nonlinear mixed-effects modeling (NONMEM). Drug effect on PAIN relative to placebo was significant with additional maximum effect of 1.51 points on the logit scale and EC50 of 1.54 ng/mL (dose of 174 mg) and a rapid onset (half-life of 11 hours), consistent with the half-life of the drug. The decrease in PAIN with placebo occurred more slowly, reaching maximum response (1.52 points on the logit scale) after 1 month. Drug response in fibromyalgia was dependent on age and sex, with greater PAIN reduction in older patients, in addition to the effect of creatinine clearance, and in females. For PGIC, administration of pregabalin resulted in an increase in the proportion of patients reporting improvement with an ED50 of 228 mg. The analyses support the recommended dose of pregabalin in patients with fibromyalgia of 300 to 450 mg/d.

  13. Flood Risk and Global Change: Future Prospects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serra-Llobet, A.

    2014-12-01

    Global flood risk is increasing in response to population growth in flood-prone areas, human encroachment into natural flood paths (exacerbating flooding in areas formerly out of harm's way), and climate change (which alters variables driving floods). How will societies respond to and manage flood risk in coming decades? Analysis of flood policy evolution in the EU and US demonstrates that changes occurred in steps, in direct response to disasters. After the flood produced by the collapse of Tous Dam in 1982, Spain initiated a systematic assessment of areas of greatest flood risk and civil protection response. The devastating floods on the Elbe and elsewhere in central Europe in 2002 motivated adoption of the EU Floods Directive (2007), which requires member states to develop systematic flood risk maps (now due) and flood risk management plans (due in 2015). The flooding of New Orleans by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 resulted in a nationwide levee-safety assessment and improvements in communicating risk, but overall less fundamental change in US flood management than manifest in the EU since 2007. In the developing world, large (and increasing) concentrations of populations in low-lying floodplains, deltas, and coasts are increasingly vulnerable, and governments mostly ill-equipped to implement fundamental changes in land use to prevent future increases in exposure, nor to develop responses to the current threats. Even in the developed world, there is surprisingly little research on how well residents of flood-prone lands understand their true risk, especially when they are 'protected' by '100-year' levees. Looking ahead, researchers and decision makers should prioritize improvements in flood risk perception, river-basin-scale assessment of flood runoff processes (under current and future climate and land-use conditions) and flood management alternatives, and bridging the disconnect between national and international floodplain management policies and local land

  14. Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change.

    PubMed

    Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

    2013-01-01

    Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause-effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses-include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process.

  15. Global and Mediterranean climate change: a short summary.

    PubMed

    Ciardini, Virginia; Contessa, Gian Marco; Falsaperla, Rosaria; Gómez-Amo, José Luis; Meloni, Daniela; Monteleone, Francesco; Pace, Giandomenico; Piacentino, Salvatore; Sferlazzo, Damiano; di Sarra, Alcide

    2016-01-01

    Observed changes at the global scale. An increase of the annual mean global temperature and changes of other climate parameters have been observed in the last century. The global temperature and the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases are changing at a very fast pace compared to those found in palaeoclimate records. Changes in the Mediterranean. Variations of some climate change indicators can be much larger at the local than at the global scale, and the Mediterranean has been indicated among the regions most sensitive to climate change, also due to the increasing anthropogenic pressure. Model projections for the Mediterranean foresee further warming, droughts, and long-lasting modifications.

  16. INTRODUCTION: Anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allan, Richard P.; Liepert, Beate G.

    2010-06-01

    intensification of precipitation (O'Gorman and Schneider 2009) and analysis of observed and simulated changes in extreme rainfall for Europe (Lenderink and van Mijgaard 2008) and over tropical oceans by Allan et al (2010) appear to corroborate this. Radiative absorption by water vapour (Previdi 2010, Stephens and Ellis 2008) also provides a thermodynamic feedback on the water cycle, and explains why climate model projections of global precipitation and evaporation of around 1-3% K-1 are muted with respect to the expected 7% K-1 increases in low-level moisture. Climate models achieve dynamical responses through reductions in strength of the Walker circulation (Vecchi et al 2006) and small yet systematic changes in the atmospheric boundary layer over the ocean that modify evaporation (Richter and Xie 2008). A further consequence is anticipated sub-tropical drying (Neelin et al 2006, Chou et al 2007); Allan et al (2010) confirm a decline in dry sub-tropical precipitation while the wet regions become wetter both in model simulations and satellite-based observations. Discrepancies between observed and climate model simulated hydrological response to warming (Wentz et al 2007, Yu and Weller 2007) are of immediate concern in understanding and predicting future responses. Over decadal time-scales it is important to establish whether such discrepancies relate to the observing system, climate modeling deficiencies, or are a statistical artifact of the brevity of the satellite records (Liepert and Previdi 2009). Techniques for extracting information on century-scale changes in precipitation are emerging (Smith et al 2009) but are also subject to severe limitations. Past decadal-scale changes in the water cycle may be further influenced by regionally and temporally varying forcings and resulting feedbacks which must be represented realistically by models (Andrews et al 2009). The radiative impact of aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds and precipitation (Liepert et al 2004) provide

  17. What are the effects of Agro-Ecological Zones and land use region boundaries on land resource projection using the Global Change Assessment Model?

    SciTech Connect

    Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Kyle, Page; Collins, William D.

    2016-11-01

    Understanding the potential impacts of climate change is complicated by mismatched spatial representations between gridded Earth System Models (ESMs) and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), whose regions are typically larger and defined by geopolitical and biophysical criteria. In this study we address uncertainty stemming from the construction of land use regions in an IAM, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), whose regions are currently based on historical climatic conditions (1961-1990). We re-define GCAM’s regions according to projected climatic conditions (2070-2099), and investigate how this changes model outcomes for land use, agriculture, and forestry. By 2100, we find potentially large differences in projected global and regional area of biomass energy crops, fodder crops, harvested forest, and intensive pasture. These land area differences correspond with changes in agricultural commodity prices and production. These results have broader implications for understanding policy scenarios and potential impacts, and for evaluating and comparing IAM and ESM simulations.

  18. Global climate changes, natural disasters, and travel health risks.

    PubMed

    Diaz, James H

    2006-01-01

    Whether the result of cyclical atmospheric changes, anthropogenic activities, or combinations of both, authorities now agree that the earth is warming from a variety of climatic effects, including the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions to support human activities. To date, most reports of the public health outcomes of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on heat stroke deaths following heat waves, drowning deaths in floods and tsunamis, and mosquito-borne infectious disease outbreaks following tropical storms and cyclones. Accurate predictions of the true public health outcomes of global climate change are confounded by several effect modifiers including human acclimatization and adaptation, the contributions of natural climatic changes, and many conflicting atmospheric models of climate change. Nevertheless, temporal relationships between environmental factors and human health outcomes have been identified and may be used as criteria to judge the causality of associations between the human health outcomes of climate changes and climate-driven natural disasters. Travel medicine physicians are obligated to educate their patients about the known public health outcomes of climate changes, about the disease and injury risk factors their patients may face from climate-spawned natural disasters, and about the best preventive measures to reduce infectious diseases and injuries following natural disasters throughout the world.

  19. Climate change: impacts on and implications for global health.

    PubMed

    St Louis, Michael E; Hess, Jeremy J

    2008-11-01

    The most severe consequences of climate change will accrue to the poorest people in the poorest countries, despite their own negligible contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. In recent years, global health efforts in those same countries have grown dramatically. However, the emerging scientific consensus about climate change has not yet had much influence on the routine practice and strategies of global health. We review here the anticipated types and global distribution of health impacts of climate change, discuss relevant aspects of current global interventions for health in low-income countries, and consider potential elements of a framework for appropriately and efficiently mainstreaming global climate change-mitigation and -adaptation strategies into the ongoing enterprise of global health. We propose a collaborative learning initiative involving four areas: (1) increased awareness among current global health practitioners of climate change and its potential impacts for the most disadvantaged, (2) strengthening of the evidence base, (3) incorporation now of climate change-mitigation and -adaptation concerns into design of ongoing global health programs, and (4) alignment of current global health program targets and methods with larger frameworks for climate change and sustainable development. The great vulnerability to climate change of populations reached by current global health efforts should prompt all concerned with global health to take a leading role in advocating for climate change mitigation in their own countries.

  20. Shifting Global Invasive Potential of European Plants with Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Peterson, A. Townsend; Stewart, Aimee; Mohamed, Kamal I.; Araújo, Miguel B.

    2008-01-01

    Global climate change and invasions by nonnative species rank among the top concerns for agents of biological loss in coming decades. Although each of these themes has seen considerable attention in the modeling and forecasting communities, their joint effects remain little explored and poorly understood. We developed ecological niche models for 1804 species from the European flora, which we projected globally to identify areas of potential distribution, both at present and across 4 scenarios of future (2055) climates. As expected from previous studies, projections based on the CGCM1 climate model were more extreme than those based on the HadCM3 model, and projections based on the a2 emissions scenario were more extreme than those based on the b2 emissions scenario. However, less expected were the highly nonlinear and contrasting projected changes in distributional areas among continents: increases in distributional potential in Europe often corresponded with decreases on other continents, and species seeing expanding potential on one continent often saw contracting potential on others. In conclusion, global climate change will have complex effects on invasive potential of plant species. The shifts and changes identified in this study suggest strongly that biological communities will see dramatic reorganizations in coming decades owing to shifting invasive potential by nonnative species. PMID:18560572

  1. The economics of long-term global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1990-09-01

    This report is intended to provide an overview of economic issues and research relevant to possible, long-term global climate change. It is primarily a critical survey, not a statement of Administration or Department policy. This report should serve to indicate that economic analysis of global change is in its infancy few assertions about costs or benefits can be made with confidence. The state of the literature precludes any attempt to produce anything like a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis. Moreover, almost all the quantitative estimates regarding physical and economic effects in this report, as well as many of the qualitative assertions, are controversial. Section I provides background on greenhouse gas emissions and their likely climatic effects and on available policy instruments. Section II considers the costs of living with global change, assuming no substantial efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Section III considers costs of reducing these emissions, though the available literature does not contain estimates of the costs of policies that would, on the assumptions of current climate models, prevent climate change altogether. The individual sections are not entirely compartmentalized, but can be read independently if necessary.

  2. Shifting global invasive potential of European plants with climate change.

    PubMed

    Peterson, A Townsend; Stewart, Aimee; Mohamed, Kamal I; Araújo, Miguel B

    2008-06-18

    Global climate change and invasions by nonnative species rank among the top concerns for agents of biological loss in coming decades. Although each of these themes has seen considerable attention in the modeling and forecasting communities, their joint effects remain little explored and poorly understood. We developed ecological niche models for 1804 species from the European flora, which we projected globally to identify areas of potential distribution, both at present and across 4 scenarios of future (2055) climates. As expected from previous studies, projections based on the CGCM1 climate model were more extreme than those based on the HadCM3 model, and projections based on the a2 emissions scenario were more extreme than those based on the b2 emissions scenario. However, less expected were the highly nonlinear and contrasting projected changes in distributional areas among continents: increases in distributional potential in Europe often corresponded with decreases on other continents, and species seeing expanding potential on one continent often saw contracting potential on others. In conclusion, global climate change will have complex effects on invasive potential of plant species. The shifts and changes identified in this study suggest strongly that biological communities will see dramatic reorganizations in coming decades owing to shifting invasive potential by nonnative species.

  3. Development and validation of an experimental life support system for assessing the effects of global climate change and environmental contamination on estuarine and coastal marine benthic communities.

    PubMed

    Coelho, Francisco J R C; Rocha, Rui J M; Pires, Ana C C; Ladeiro, Bruno; Castanheira, José M; Costa, Rodrigo; Almeida, Adelaide; Cunha, Angela; Lillebø, Ana Isabel; Ribeiro, Rui; Pereira, Ruth; Lopes, Isabel; Marques, Catarina; Moreira-Santos, Matilde; Calado, Ricardo; Cleary, Daniel F R; Gomes, Newton C M

    2013-08-01

    An experimental life support system (ELSS) was constructed to study the interactive effects of multiple stressors on coastal and estuarine benthic communities, specifically perturbations driven by global climate change and anthropogenic environmental contamination. The ELSS allows researchers to control salinity, pH, temperature, ultraviolet radiation (UVR), tidal rhythms and exposure to selected contaminants. Unlike most microcosms previously described, our system enables true independent replication (including randomization). In addition to this, it can be assembled using commercially available materials and equipment, thereby facilitating the replication of identical experimental setups in different geographical locations. Here, we validate the reproducibility and environmental quality of the system by comparing chemical and biological parameters recorded in our ELSS with those prevalent in the natural environment. Water, sediment microbial community and ragworm (the polychaete Hediste diversicolor) samples were obtained from four microcosms after 57 days of operation. In general, average concentrations of dissolved inorganic nutrients (NO3 (-) ; NH4 (+) and PO4 (-3) ) in the water column of the ELSS experimental control units were within the range of concentrations recorded in the natural environment. While some shifts in bacterial community composition were observed between in situ and ELSS sediment samples, the relative abundance of most metabolically active bacterial taxa appeared to be stable. In addition, ELSS operation did not significantly affect survival, oxidative stress and neurological biomarkers of the model organism Hediste diversicolor. The validation data indicate that this system can be used to assess independent or interactive effects of climate change and environmental contamination on benthic communities. Researchers will be able to simulate the effects of these stressors on processes driven by microbial communities, sediment and seawater

  4. Increasing Diversity in Global Climate Change Research for Undergraduates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, L. P.; Marchese, P.; Carlson, B. E.; Howard, A. M.; Peteet, D. M.; Rosenzweig, C.; Druyan, L. M.; Fulakeza, M.; Gaffin, S.; Austin, S. A.; Cheung, T. D.; Damas, M. C.; Boxe, C.; Prince, T.; Ng, C.; Frost, J.

    2014-12-01

    Global Climate Change and the ability to predict the effects of forcings and feedback mechanisms on global and local climate are critical to the survival of the inhabitants of planet Earth. It is therefore important to motivate students to continue their studies towards advanced degrees and pursue careers related to climate change. This is best accomplished by involving undergraduates in global climate change research. This Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) initiative is based at the City University of New York (CUNY) and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), and is supported by NASA and NSF. Mentors for the primarily summer research experiences include CUNY faculty and GISS scientists. Research topics include the Wetland Carbon Project, The Cooling Power Of Urban Vegetation, Internal Ocean Mixing, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Pollution Transport and Tropospheric Ozone. Students are recruited from CUNY colleges and other colleges and universities. The program maintains an emphasis on under-represented minorities and females. Approximately sixty percent of the undergraduate students are under-represented minorities and forty percent are female. The project is supported by NSF award AGS-1359293 REU Site: CUNY/GISS Center for Global Climate Research.

  5. Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands.

    PubMed

    Gao, Qingzhu; Zhu, Wenquan; Schwartz, Mark W; Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Williamson, Matthew A; Li, Yue

    2016-05-31

    Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2-71.2% during 1982-2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms.

  6. Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Qingzhu; Zhu, Wenquan; Schwartz, Mark W.; Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Williamson, Matthew A.; Li, Yue

    2016-05-01

    Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2–71.2% during 1982–2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms.

  7. Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands

    PubMed Central

    Gao, Qingzhu; Zhu, Wenquan; Schwartz, Mark W.; Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Williamson, Matthew A.; Li, Yue

    2016-01-01

    Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2–71.2% during 1982–2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms. PMID:27243565

  8. Illinois task force on global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Griffin, B.S.

    1996-12-31

    The purpose of this report is to document progress in the areas of national policy development, emissions reduction, research and education, and adaptation, and to identify specific actions that will be undertaken to implement the Illinois state action plan. The task force has been tracking national and international climate change policy, and helping shape national policy agenda. Identification and implementation of cost-effective mitigation measures has been performed for emissions reduction. In the area of research and education, the task force is developing the capacity to measure climate change indicators, maintaining and enhancing Illinois relevant research, and strengthening climate change education. Activities relevant to adaptation to new policy include strengthening water laws and planning for adaptation. 6 figs., 4 tabs.

  9. Preparing for Change: Challenges and Opportunities in a Global World

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Hara, Sabine

    2009-03-01

    Our world is becoming increasingly global. This may sound like a clich'e, yet it is true nonetheless, and poses unprecedented challenges for graduate education. For the new generation of researchers, teachers and professionals to be successful they must be prepared in more than the content area of their chosen field. They must also acquire proficiency in global awareness, cultural literacy, multicultural teamwork and language facility. These global skill sets form the basis for effective multicultural collaboration and will become increasingly important even for those who do not intend to study or work abroad. Knowledge has become more portable in the internet age; large data bases and reports can be accessed in real time from various locations around the globe; information is exchanged in multifaceted knowledge networks; collaborative research takes place within and outside of the traditional venue of the research university in the private sector, research institutes, and associations; research networks span multiple disciplines as progress invariably occurs at the intersection of previously discrete fields of inquiry. Global collaboration thus is no longer dependent on the physical proximity of collaborators but can take place anywhere any time. This then requires yet another set of skills, namely the ability to adapt to change, exhibit flexibility and transfer skills to a range of contexts and applications. Effective graduate education must address these realities and expose students to learning opportunities that will enable them to acquire these much needed global skills sets.

  10. Modelling of global change at the mesopause

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gruzdev, A.; Brasseur, G.

    2003-04-01

    Significant negative temperature trend at the northern hemisphere mesospause for winter season has been documented by different methods of observations. For studying mechanisms of the mesopause cooling, simulations with the use of the chemical dynamical radiative two-dimensional model named SOCRATES are used. Probable mechanisms of the observed cooling of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere can be of radiation as well as dynamical nature. Among these are changes in contents of greenhouse gases and changes in gravity wave momentum deposition affecting the meridional circulation in the upper mesosphere. Combined increase for the last 50 year, in accordance with the observed trends, in contents of CO2, methane, N2O, and water vapor as well as the lower troposphere warming results in a simulated cooling of a few K at the mesopause for winter and summer seasons. This shows that the trends in the contents of greenhouse gases and the lower troposphere temperature are not the only (and, probably, not the main) reason of the large cooling in the upper mesosphere, at least in the framework of a two-dimensional model. Long-term changes in the circulation resulting in changes of gravity wave momentum and energy deposition, which affects the circulation in the middle atmosphere, could also be responsible for this effect. As an example, the doubling of the model gravity wave forcing results in an essential cooling by several K at the northern hemisphere mesopause in winter. The simulated effect of combined changes in contents of greenhouse gases, low troposphere temperature, and doubling of the gravity wave forcing is the cooling of the model mesopause by 8-10 K in the middle-to-high latitudes of the northern hemisphere in winter, along with insignificant thermal effect in summer.

  11. Causes of change in 20th century global river discharge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerten, Dieter; Rost, Stefanie; von Bloh, Werner; Lucht, Wolfgang

    2008-10-01

    A global vegetation and hydrology model (LPJmL) was applied to quantify the contributions of changing precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO2 content, land use and irrigation to worldwide trends in 20th century river discharge (Q). Consistently with observations, Q decreased in parts of Africa, central/southern Asia and south-eastern Europe, and increased especially in parts of North America and western Asia. Based on the CRU TS2.1 climatology, total global Q rose over 1901-2002 (trend, 30.8 km3 a-2, equaling 7.7%), due primarily to increasing precipitation (individual effect, +24.7 km3 a-2). Global warming (-3.1), rising CO2 (+4.4), land cover changes (+5.9) and irrigation (-1.1) also had discernible effects. However, sign and magnitude of trends exhibited pronounced decadal variability and differed among precipitation forcing datasets. Since recent trends in these and other drivers of Q are mainly anthropogenic, we conclude that humans exert an increasing influence on the global water cycle.

  12. Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk

    SciTech Connect

    Martens, W.J.M.; Rotmans, J. |; Niessen, L.W.; Jetten, T.H.; McMichael, A.J.

    1995-05-01

    The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to climatic influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on the health impact of malaria. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due to expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic; in these regions the numbers of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However, the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environmental conditions, the effects of socioeconomic developments, and malaria control programs or capabilities. 33 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  13. Exploring Global Change In Place-Based Case Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moosavi, S. C.

    2011-12-01

    The complexity of global climate change makes the subject challenging for the average student, particularly given the nuanced feedbacks and exceptions to the general "warming" or "drying" trend that may be experienced at the local and regional level at which most people experience geologic processes. Geoscience educators can reduce these barriers and draw in student learners by adopting a place-based approach to teaching and researching geologic principles that relate to global change. Assisting students in recognizing and understanding the geologic environment in which they live and study has the side benefit of making the potential effect of climate change tangible. This presentation will review several approaches for using place-based case studies to explore global climate change issues in large lecture, small seminar, field research and service learning environments. The special place project used in large introductory physical geology courses requires each student to select a place familiar and unique to them for an in depth study of the common course content as the semester progresses. Students are specifically tasked with identifying how their site came to be, the geologic processes that act upon it today, how the site may have been different during the last glacial advance and how global climate change (specifically warming of 3OC over 50 years) might impact the site. The concept that change has occurred at the student's site in the past, even far from glacial environments, opens students to the scale of potential anthropogenic climate change. A freshman seminar Global Warming & Climate Change - Service in Preparation for Climate Change: The Second Battle of New Orleans focused on the environmental threats to New Orleans and southeastern Louisiana resulting from regional land use decisions in the centuries before Hurricane Katrina, and the threat that global change relating to sea level rise, acceleration of the hydrologic cycle and intensification of

  14. Changing Composition of the Global Stratosphere.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McElroy, Michael B.; Salawitch, Ross J.

    1989-01-01

    Discusses the chemistry of the stratosphere at mid-latitudes, the Antarctic phenomenon, and temporal trends in ozone levels. Includes equations, diagrams of the global distribution of ozone, and halogen growth projections. Concludes that studies of stratospheric ozone demonstrate that the global environment is fragile and is impacted by human…

  15. Climate change and fire effects on a prairie–woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model

    PubMed Central

    King, David A; Bachelet, Dominique M; Symstad, Amy J

    2013-01-01

    Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions

  16. Climate change and fire effects on a prairie-woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominique M.; Symstad, Amy J.

    2013-01-01

    Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions

  17. Climate change and fire effects on a prairie-woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model.

    PubMed

    King, David A; Bachelet, Dominique M; Symstad, Amy J

    2013-12-01

    Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine-prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions and

  18. Terrestrial ecosystem responses to global change: A research strategy

    SciTech Connect

    1998-09-01

    Uncertainty about the magnitude of global change effects on terrestrial ecosystems and consequent feedbacks to the atmosphere impedes sound policy planning at regional, national, and global scales. A strategy to reduce these uncertainties must include a substantial increase in funding for large-scale ecosystem experiments and a careful prioritization of research efforts. Prioritization criteria should be based on the magnitude of potential changes in environmental properties of concern to society, including productivity; biodiversity; the storage and cycling of carbon, water, and nutrients; and sensitivity of specific ecosystems to environmental change. A research strategy is proposed that builds on existing knowledge of ecosystem responses to global change by (1) expanding the spatial and temporal scale of experimental ecosystem manipulations to include processes known to occur at large scales and over long time periods; (2) quantifying poorly understood linkages among processes through the use of experiments that manipulate multiple interacting environmental factors over a broader range of relevant conditions than did past experiments; and (3) prioritizing ecosystems for major experimental manipulations on the basis of potential positive and negative impacts on ecosystem properties and processes of intrinsic and/or utilitarian value to humans and on feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere.

  19. Decadal Changes in Global Ocean Annual Primary Production

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gregg, Watson; Conkright, Margarita E.; Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Ginoux, Paul; Casey, Nancy W.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) has produced the first multi-year time series of global ocean chlorophyll observations since the demise of the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) in 1986. Global observations from 1997-present from SeaWiFS combined with observations from 1979-1986 from the CZCS should in principle provide an opportunity to observe decadal changes in global ocean annual primary production, since chlorophyll is the primary driver for estimates of primary production. However, incompatibilities between algorithms have so far precluded quantitative analysis. We have developed and applied compatible processing methods for the CZCS, using modern advances in atmospheric correction and consistent bio-optical algorithms to advance the CZCS archive to comparable quality with SeaWiFS. We applied blending methodologies, where in situ data observations are incorporated into the CZCS and SeaWiFS data records, to provide improvement of the residuals. These re-analyzed, blended data records provide maximum compatibility and permit, for the first time, a quantitative analysis of the changes in global ocean primary production in the early-to-mid 1980's and the present, using synoptic satellite observations. An intercomparison of the global and regional primary production from these blended satellite observations is important to understand global climate change and the effects on ocean biota. Photosynthesis by chlorophyll-containing phytoplankton is responsible for biotic uptake of carbon in the oceans and potentially ultimately from the atmosphere. Global ocean annual primary decreased from the CZCS record to SeaWiFS, by nearly 6% from the early 1980s to the present. Annual primary production in the high latitudes was responsible for most of the decadal change. Conversely, primary production in the low latitudes generally increased, with the exception of the tropical Pacific. The differences and similarities of the two data records provide evidence

  20. Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alkama, Ramdane; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2016-02-01

    Changes in forest cover affect the local climate by modulating the land-atmosphere fluxes of energy and water. The magnitude of this biophysical effect is still debated in the scientific community and currently ignored in climate treaties. Here we present an observation-driven assessment of the climate impacts of recent forest losses and gains, based on Earth observations of global forest cover and land surface temperatures. Our results show that forest losses amplify the diurnal temperature variation and increase the mean and maximum air temperature, with the largest signal in arid zones, followed by temperate, tropical, and boreal zones. In the decade 2003-2012, variations of forest cover generated a mean biophysical warming on land corresponding to about 18% of the global biogeochemical signal due to CO2 emission from land-use change.

  1. Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover.

    PubMed

    Alkama, Ramdane; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2016-02-05

    Changes in forest cover affect the local climate by modulating the land-atmosphere fluxes of energy and water. The magnitude of this biophysical effect is still debated in the scientific community and currently ignored in climate treaties. Here we present an observation-driven assessment of the climate impacts of recent forest losses and gains, based on Earth observations of global forest cover and land surface temperatures. Our results show that forest losses amplify the diurnal temperature variation and increase the mean and maximum air temperature, with the largest signal in arid zones, followed by temperate, tropical, and boreal zones. In the decade 2003-2012, variations of forest cover generated a mean biophysical warming on land corresponding to about 18% of the global biogeochemical signal due to CO2 emission from land-use change.

  2. Possible implications of global climate change on global lightning distributions and frequencies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Price, Colin; Rind, David

    1994-01-01

    The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) is used to study the possible implications of past and future climate change on global lightning frequencies. Two climate change experiments were conducted: one for a 2 x CO2 climate (representing a 4.2 degs C global warming) and one for a 2% decrease in the solar constant (representing a 5.9 degs C global cooling). The results suggest at 30% increase in global lightning activity for the warmer climate and a 24% decrease in global lightning activity for the colder climate. This implies an approximate 5-6% change in global lightning frequencies for every 1 degs C global warming/cooling. Both intracloud and cloud-to-ground frequencies are modeled, with cloud-to-ground lightning frequencies showing larger sensitivity to climate change than intracloud frequencies. The magnitude of the modeled lightning changes depends on season, location, and even time of day.

  3. Science priorities for the human dimensions of global change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1994-01-01

    The topics covered include the following: defining research needs; understanding land use change; improving policy analysis -- research on the decision-making process; designing policy instruments and institutions to address energy-related environmental problems; assessing impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation to global changes; and understanding population dynamics and global change.

  4. Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Peterson, A Townsend; Ortega-Huerta, Miguel A; Bartley, Jeremy; Sánchez-Cordero, Victor; Soberón, Jorge; Buddemeier, Robert H; Stockwell, David R B

    2002-04-11

    Global climates are changing rapidly, with unexpected consequences. Because elements of biodiversity respond intimately to climate as an important driving force of distributional limitation, distributional shifts and biodiversity losses are expected. Nevertheless, in spite of modelling efforts focused on single species or entire ecosystems, a few preliminary surveys of fauna-wide effects, and evidence of climate change-mediated shifts in several species, the likely effects of climate change on species' distributions remain little known, and fauna-wide or community-level effects are almost completely unexplored. Here, using a genetic algorithm and museum specimen occurrence data, we develop ecological niche models for 1,870 species occurring in Mexico and project them onto two climate surfaces modelled for 2055. Although extinctions and drastic range reductions are predicted to be relatively few, species turnover in some local communities is predicted to be high (>40% of species), suggesting that severe ecological perturbations may result.

  5. Regional to global changes in drought and implications for future changes under global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Kam, J.

    2012-12-01

    Drought can have large impacts on multiple sectors, including agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, transport, industry and tourism. In extreme cases, regional drought can lead to food insecurity and famine, and in intensive agricultural regions, extend to global economic impacts in a connected world. Recent droughts globally have been severe and costly but whether they are becoming more frequent and severe, and the attribution of this, is a key question. Observational evidence at large scales, such as satellite remote sensing are often subject to short-term records and inhomogeneities, and ground based data are sparse in many regions. Reliance on model output is also subject to error and simplifications in the model physics that can, for example, amplify the impact of global warming on drought. This presentation will show the observational and model evidence for changes in drought, with a focus on the interplay between precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand and its impact on the terrestrial water cycle and drought. We discuss the fidelity of climate models to reproduce our best estimates of drought variability and its drivers historically, and the implications of this on uncertainties in future projections of drought from CMIP5 models, and how this has changed since CMIP3.

  6. Water - The key to global change. [of weather and climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Soffen, Gerald A.

    1988-01-01

    The role of water in processes of global change is discussed. The importance of water in global warming, the loss of biological diversity, the activity of the El Nino southern oscillation, and the melting of polar ice are examined. Plans for a mission to measure tropical rainfall using a two frequency radar, a visible/IR radiometer and a passive microwave radiometer are noted. The way in which global change is affected by changes in patterns of available water is considered.

  7. Climate Change: U.S.-China Partnership for Global Security

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-03-01

    that “ global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people.”7 Apposing arguments regarding climate change are not surprising... Warming CLASSIFICATION: Unclassified China has capitalized on economic globalization to emerge as one of the largest industrial nations, and...Climate Change (IPCC), the impact of global warming on planet earth depends on the extent of human adaptation to climate change and the rate of

  8. Rubisco, Rubisco activase, and global climate change.

    PubMed

    Sage, Rowan F; Way, Danielle A; Kubien, David S

    2008-01-01

    Global warming and the rise in atmospheric CO(2) will increase the operating temperature of leaves in coming decades, often well above the thermal optimum for photosynthesis. Presently, there is controversy over the limiting processes controlling photosynthesis at elevated temperature. Leading models propose that the reduction in photosynthesis at elevated temperature is a function of either declining capacity of electron transport to regenerate RuBP, or reductions in the capacity of Rubisco activase to maintain Rubisco in an active configuration. Identifying which of these processes is the principal limitation at elevated temperature is complicated because each may be regulated in response to a limitation in the other. Biochemical and gas exchange assessments can disentangle these photosynthetic limitations; however, comprehensive assessments are often difficult and, for many species, virtually impossible. It is proposed that measurement of the initial slope of the CO(2) response of photosynthesis (the A/C(i) response) can be a useful means to screen for Rubisco activase limitations. This is because a reduction in the Rubisco activation state should be most apparent at low CO(2) when Rubisco capacity is generally limiting. In sweet potato, spinach, and tobacco, the initial slope of the A/C(i) response shows no evidence of activase limitations at high temperature, as the slope can be accurately modelled using the kinetic parameters of fully activated Rubisco. In black spruce (Picea mariana), a reduction in the initial slope above 30 degrees C cannot be explained by the known kinetics of fully activated Rubisco, indicating that activase may be limiting at high temperatures. Because black spruce is the dominant species in the boreal forest of North America, Rubisco activase may be an unusually important factor determining the response of the boreal biome to climate change.

  9. Problem free nuclear power and global change

    SciTech Connect

    Teller, E.; Wood, L.; Nuckolls, J.; Ishikawa, M.; Hyde, R.

    1997-08-15

    Nuclear fission power reactors represent a solution-in-principle to all aspects of global change possibly induced by inputting of either particulate or carbon or sulfur oxides into the Earth`s atmosphere. Of proven technological feasibility, they presently produce high- grade heat for electricity generation, space heating and industrial process-driving around the world, without emitting greenhouse gases or atmospheric particulates. However, a substantial number of major issues currently stand between nuclear power implemented with light- water reactors and widespread substitution for large stationary fossil fuel-fired systems, including long-term fuel supply, adverse public perceptions regarding both long-term and acute operational safety, plant decommissioning, fuel reprocessing, radwaste disposal, fissile materials diversion to military purposes and - perhaps more seriously - cost. We describe a GW-scale, high-temperature nuclear reactor heat source that can operate with no human intervention for a few decades and that may be widely acceptable, since its safety features are simple, inexpensive and easily understood. We provide first-level details of a reactor system designed to satisfy these requirements. Such a back-solving approach to realizing large-scale nuclear fission power systems potentially leads to an energy source capable of meeting all large-scale stationary demands for high- temperature heat. If widely employed to support such demands, it could, for example, directly reduce present-day world-wide CO{sub 2} emissions by two-fold; by using it to produce non-carbonaceous fuels for small mobile demands, a second two-fold reduction could be attained. Even the first such reduction would permit continued slow power-demand growth in the First World and rapid development of the Third World, both without any governmental suppression of fossil fuel usage.

  10. Global atmospheric change and research needs in environmental health sciences

    SciTech Connect

    Goldstein, B.D. ); Reed, D.J. )

    1991-12-01

    On November 6-7, 1989, the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) held a conference on Global Atmospheric Change and Human Health. As a result, and in the months since this conference, many important areas of research have been identified with regard to the impacts of climatic changes on human health. To develop comprehensive research programs that address important human health issues related to global warming, it is necessary to begin by recognizing that some of the health effects will be direct such as those due to temperature changes, and others will be indirect consequences of environmental alterations resulting in crop loss, changing disease vectors, population migration, etc. It should also be recognized that the conditions leading to global warming have importance to human health and the environment other than through increasing concentrations of CO[sub 2] in the atmosphere, rising surface temperatures, and rising sea levels. Much of the increase in CO[sub 2] in the atmosphere is due to the increased combustion of fossil fuels for transportation and electric power production. Over the next 30 years, the demand for electrical power is expected to grow at a rate of 2 to 4% per year in the United States alone, and even faster growth is likely for developing countries. Much of this energy will be derived from the combustion of fossil fuels, including coal, which result in pollutant emissions to the air such as metals, radioactivity, SO[sub x], NO[sub x], and particles. Therefore, with increasing concentrations of CO[sub 2] there will not only be the effects of global warming on health, but also increasing concentrations of many serious air pollutants in urban areas, including the precursors of acid rain and acid deposition over large regional areas.

  11. Effects of elevated ozone on photosynthesis and stomatal conductance of two soybean varieties: a case study to assess impacts of one component of predicted global climate change.

    PubMed

    Singh, E; Tiwari, S; Agrawal, M

    2009-11-01

    Global climatic change scenarios predict a significant increase in future tropospheric ozone (O(3)) concentrations. The present investigation was done to assess the effects of elevated O(3) (70 and 100 ppb) on electron transport, carbon fixation, stomatal conductance and pigment concentrations in two tropical soybean (Glycine max L.) varieties, PK 472 and Bragg. Plants were exposed to O(3) for 4 h.day(-1) from 10:00 to 14:00 from germination to maturity. Photosynthesis of both varieties were adversely affected, but the reduction was higher in PK 472 than Bragg. A comparison of chlorophyll a fluorescence kinetics with carbon fixation suggested greater sensitivity of dark reactions than light reactions of photosynthesis to O(3) stress. The O(3)-induced uncoupling between photosynthesis and stomatal conductance in PK 472 suggests the reduction in photosynthesis may be attributed to a factor other than reduced stomatal conductance. An increase in internal CO(2) concentration in both O(3)-treated soybean varieties compared suggests that the reduction in photosynthesis was due to damage to the photosynthetic apparatus, leading to accumulation of internal CO(2) and stomatal closure. The adverse impact of O(3) stress increased at higher O(3) concentrations in both soybean varieties leading to large reductions in photosynthesis. This study suggests that O(3)-induced reductions in photosynthesis in tropical and temperate varieties are similar.

  12. Coping with global environmental change -- role of science and democracy.

    PubMed

    Menon, M G

    The world's population increased form about 3 billion in 1960 to 4 billion in 1974, to 5 billion in 1987, and it is projected to grow to 6 billion by 1991 and to 8 billion by 1992. Finite, nonrenewable resources have to satisfy the increased need for sustenance of this population excess in a sustainable economic development mold. Human activity has upset natural processes with negative environmental effects: Minamata disease in Japan caused by heavy metal pollution, global deforestation, and acid rain. The 1972 Conference on Human Environment in Stockholm dealt with industrial pollution. The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) was established subsequently. The theory of global warming caused by emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxides, and halogens as predicted by a Swedish scientist decades ago is accumulating a body of evidence. The International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) of the International Council of Scientific Unions attempt to explore the Earth's physical, chemical, and biological processes to predict global environmental changes. Success mandates data availability. Paleoclimatic evidence indicates previous cataclysms caused by climate change, thus agriculture could be affected massively by global warming. Improved scientific analysis of greenhouse gas emissions and crop simulation models for major agricultural areas are needed. The North-South dialogue in UN forums has been acrimonious without much success, although international cooperation has been fruitful with the adoption of the Montreal Protocol on phasing out ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons. Such cooperation is needed on energy consumption and sources.

  13. Global Climate Change and Ocean Education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spitzer, W.; Anderson, J.

    2011-12-01

    The New England Aquarium, collaborating with other aquariums across the country, is leading a national effort to enable aquariums and related informal science education institutions to effectively communicate the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on marine animals, habitats and ecosystems. Our goal is to build on visitors' emotional connection with ocean animals, connect to their deeply held values, help them understand causes and effects of climate change and motivate them to embrace effective solutions. Our objectives are to: (1) Build a national coalition of aquariums and related informal education institutions collaborating on climate change education; (2) Develop an interpretive framework for climate change and the ocean that is scientifically sound, research-based, field tested and evaluated; and (3) Build capacity of aquariums to interpret climate change via training for interpreters, interactive exhibits and activities and communities of practice for ongoing support. Centers of informal learning have the potential to bring important environmental issues to the public by presenting the facts, explaining the science, connecting with existing values and interests, and motivating concern and action. Centers that work with live animals (including aquariums, zoos, nature centers, national parks, national marine sanctuaries, etc.) are unique in that they attract large numbers of people of all ages (over 140 million in the US), have strong connections to the natural, and engage many visitors who may not come with a primary interest in science. Recent research indicates that that the public expects and trusts aquariums, zoos, and museums to communicate solutions to environmental and ocean issues, and to advance ocean conservation, and that climate change is the environmental issue of most concern to the public; Ironically, however, most people do not associate climate change with ocean health, or understand the critical role that the ocean plays in

  14. Engaging Undergraduates in Methods of Communicating Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hall, C.; Colgan, M. W.; Humphreys, R. R.

    2010-12-01

    Global Climate Change has become a politically contentious issue in large part because of the failure of scientists to effectively communicate this complex subject to the general public. In a Global Change class, offered within a science department and therefore focused primarily on the underlying science, we have incorporated a citizen science module into the course to raise awareness among future scientists to the importance of communicating information to a broad and diverse audience. The citizen science component of this course focuses on how the predicted climate changes will alter the ecologic and economic landscape of the southeastern region. Helping potential scientists to learn to effectively communicate with the general public is particularly poignant for this predominate southern student body. A Pew Research Center for the People and the Press study found that less than 50% of Southerners surveyed felt that global warming is a very serious problem and over 30% of Southerners did not believe that there was any credible evidence that the Earth is warming. This interdisciplinary and topical nature of the course attracts student from a variety of disciplines, which provides the class with a cross section of students not typically found in most geology classes. This mixture provides a diversity of skills and interest that leads to success of the Citizen Science component. This learning approach was adapted from an education module developed through the Earth System Science Education Alliance and a newly developed component to that program on citizen science. Student teams developed several citizen science-related public service announcements concerning projected global change effects on Charleston and the South Carolina area. The scenario concerned the development of an information campaign for the City of Charleston, culminating with the student presentations on their findings to City officials. Through this real-life process, the students developed new

  15. Global oscillation regime change by gated inhibition.

    PubMed

    Romeo, August; Supèr, Hans

    2016-10-01

    The role of sensory inputs in the modelling of synchrony regimes is exhibited by means of networks of spiking cells where the relative strength of the inhibitory interaction is controlled by the activation of a linear unit working as a gating variable. Adaptation to stimulus size is determined by the value of a changing length scale, modelled by the time-varying radius of a circular receptive field. In this set-up, 'consolidation' time intervals relevant to attentional effects are shown to depend on the dynamics governing the evolution of the introduced length scale.

  16. An imperative need for global change research in tropical forests.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Xuhui; Fu, Yuling; Zhou, Lingyan; Li, Bo; Luo, Yiqi

    2013-09-01

    Tropical forests play a crucial role in regulating regional and global climate dynamics, and model projections suggest that rapid climate change may result in forest dieback or savannization. However, these predictions are largely based on results from leaf-level studies. How tropical forests respond and feedback to climate change is largely unknown at the ecosystem level. Several complementary approaches have been used to evaluate the effects of climate change on tropical forests, but the results are conflicting, largely due to confounding effects of multiple factors. Although altered precipitation and nitrogen deposition experiments have been conducted in tropical forests, large-scale warming and elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) manipulations are completely lacking, leaving many hypotheses and model predictions untested. Ecosystem-scale experiments to manipulate temperature and CO2 concentration individually or in combination are thus urgently needed to examine their main and interactive effects on tropical forests. Such experiments will provide indispensable data and help gain essential knowledge on biogeochemical, hydrological and biophysical responses and feedbacks of tropical forests to climate change. These datasets can also inform regional and global models for predicting future states of tropical forests and climate systems. The success of such large-scale experiments in natural tropical forests will require an international framework to coordinate collaboration so as to meet the challenges in cost, technological infrastructure and scientific endeavor.

  17. Global change, nitrification, and denitrification: A review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnard, Romain; Leadley, Paul W.; Hungate, Bruce A.

    2005-03-01

    We reviewed responses of nitrification, denitrification, and soil N2O efflux to elevated CO2, N availability, and temperature, based on published experimental results. We used meta-analysis to estimate the magnitude of response of soil N2O emissions, nitrifying enzyme activity (NEA), denitrifying enzyme activity (DEA), and net and gross nitrification across experiments. We found no significant overall effect of elevated CO2 on N2O fluxes. DEA and NEA significantly decreased at elevated CO2; however, gross nitrification was not modified by elevated CO2, and net nitrification increased. The negative overall response of DEA to elevated CO2 was associated with decreased soil [NO3-], suggesting that reduced availability of electron acceptors may dominate the responses of denitrification to elevated CO2. N addition significantly increased field and laboratory N2O emissions, together with gross and net nitrification, but the effect of N addition on field N2O efflux was not correlated to the amount of N added. The effects of elevated temperature on DEA, NEA, and net nitrification were not significant: The small number of studies available stress the need for more warming experiments in the field. While N addition had large effects on measurements of nitrification and denitrification, the effects of elevated CO2 were less pronounced and more variable, suggesting that increased N deposition is likely to affect belowground N cycling with a magnitude of change that is much larger than that caused by elevated CO2.

  18. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies.

    PubMed

    Pierce, David W; Barnett, Tim P; Santer, Benjamin D; Gleckler, Peter J

    2009-05-26

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures.

  19. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    PubMed Central

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures. PMID:19439652

  20. Cloud physics considerations in global climate change studies

    SciTech Connect

    Twomey, S.

    1995-09-01

    In predicting the global warming due to a doubling of CO{sub 2} it is important not to only evaluate the net effect of all the known feedback mechanisms, but to estimate the sensitivity to each. In other words, the partial derivatives as well as the total derivatives should be estimated. In order for relative humidity to remain constant, the liquid water content must be proportional to the cube root of the saturation vapor pressure and it is difficult to explain why this should be true. The point is that sensitivities to particles are as big as the direct carbon dioxide doubling effect, so that our uncertainty about which scenario is most realistic has important implications for our global change predictions. 2 figs.

  1. Global Food Security in a Changing Climate: Considerations and Projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walsh, M. K.; Brown, M. E.; Backlund, P. W.; Antle, J. M.; Carr, E. R.; Easterling, W. E.; Funk, C. C.; Murray, A.; Ngugi, M.; Barrett, C. B.; Ingram, J. S. I.; Dancheck, V.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.; Mata, T.; Ojima, D. S.; Grace, K.; Jiang, H.; Bellemare, M.; Attavanich, W.; Ammann, C. M.; Maletta, H.

    2015-12-01

    Global food security is an elusive challenge and important policy focus from the community to the globe. Food is provisioned through food systems that may be simple or labyrinthine, yet each has vulnerabilities to climate change through its effects on food production, transportation, storage, and other integral food system activities. At the same time, the future of food systems is sensitive to socioeconomic trajectories determined by choices made outside of the food system, itself. Constrictions for any reason can lead to decreased food availability, access, utilization, or stability - that is, to diminished food security. Possible changes in trade and other U.S. relationships to the rest of the world under changing conditions to the end of the century are considered through integrated assessment modelling under a range of emissions scenarios. Climate change is likely to diminish continued progress on global food security through production disruptions leading to local availability limitations and price increases, interrupted transport conduits, and diminished food safety, among other causes. In the near term, some high-latitude production export regions may benefit from changes in climate. The types and price of food imports is likely to change, as are export demands, affecting U.S. consumers and producers. Demands placed on foreign assistance programs may increase, as may demand for advanced technologies. Adaptation across the food system has great potential to manage climate change effects on food security, and the complexity of the food system offers multiple potential points of intervention for decision makers at every level. However, effective adaptation is subject to highly localized conditions and socioeconomic factors, and the technical feasibility of an adaptive intervention is not necessarily a guarantee of its application if it is unaffordable or does not provide benefits within a relatively short time frame.

  2. Mycotoxins in a changing global environment--a review.

    PubMed

    Marroquín-Cardona, A G; Johnson, N M; Phillips, T D; Hayes, A W

    2014-07-01

    Mycotoxins are toxic metabolites produced by fungal species that commonly contaminate staple foods and feeds. They represent an unavoidable problem due to their presence in globally consumed cereals such as rice, maize and wheat. Most mycotoxins are immunosuppressive agents and some are carcinogens, hepatotoxins, nephrotoxins, and neurotoxins. Worldwide trends envision a stricter control of mycotoxins, however, the changing global environment may not be the ideal setting to control and reduce the exposure to these toxins. Although new technologies allow us to inspect the multi-mycotoxin presence in foods, new sources of exposure, gaps in knowledge of mycotoxins interactions, appearance of "emergent" mycotoxins and elucidation of consequent health effects can complicate their control even more. While humans are adapting to cope with environmental changes, such as food scarcity, decreased food quality, mycotoxin regulations, crop production and seasonality, and other climate related modifications, fungal species are also adapting and increased cases of mycotoxin adverse health effects are likely to occur in the future. To guarantee access to quality food for all, we need a way to balance global mycotoxin standards with the realistic feasibility of reaching them, considering limitations of producers and designing strategies to reduce mycotoxin exposure based on sound research.

  3. Large space-based systems for dealing with global environment change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jenkins, Lyle M.

    1992-01-01

    Increased concern over the effects of global climate change and depletion of the ozone layer has resulted in support for the Global Change Research Program and the Mission to Planet Earth. Research to understand Earth system processes is critical, but it falls short of providing ways of mitigating the effects of change. Geoengineering options and alternatives to interactively manage change need to be developed. Space-based concepts for dealing with changes to the environment should be considered in addition to Earth-based actions. 'Mission for Planet Earth' describes those space-based geoengineering solutions that may combine with an international global change program to stabilize the Global environment. Large space systems that may be needed for this response challenge guidance and control engineering and technology. Definition, analysis, demonstration, and preparation of geoengineering technology will provide a basis for policy response if global change consequences are severe.

  4. Beneath the surface of global change: Impacts of climate change on groundwater

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Green, Timothy R.; Taniguchi, Makoto; Kooi, Henk; Gurdak, Jason J.; Allen, Diana M.; Hiscock, Kevin M.; Treidel, Holger; Aureli, Alice

    2011-08-01

    SummaryGlobal change encompasses changes in the characteristics of inter-related climate variables in space and time, and derived changes in terrestrial processes, including human activities that affect the environment. As such, projected global change includes groundwater systems. Here, groundwater is defined as all subsurface water including soil water, deeper vadose zone water, and unconfined and confined aquifer waters. Potential effects of climate change combined with land and water management on surface waters have been studied in some detail. Equivalent studies of groundwater systems have lagged behind these advances, but research and broader interest in projected climate effects on groundwater have been accelerating in recent years. In this paper, we provide an overview and synthesis of the key aspects of subsurface hydrology, including water quantity and quality, related to global change. Adaptation to global change must include prudent management of groundwater as a renewable, but slow-feedback resource in most cases. Groundwater storage is already over-tapped in many regions, yet available subsurface storage may be a key to meeting the combined demands of agriculture, industry, municipal and domestic water supply, and ecosystems during times of shortage. The future intensity and frequency of dry periods combined with warming trends need to be addressed in the context of groundwater resources, even though projections in space and time are fraught with uncertainty. Finally, potential impacts of groundwater on the global climate system are largely unknown. Research to improve our understanding of the joint behaviors of climate and groundwater is needed, and spin-off benefits on each discipline are likely.

  5. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    PubMed Central

    Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

    2013-01-01

    Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause–effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses—include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2013;32:79–92. © 2012 SETAC PMID:23161373

  6. Global Climate Change. Selected Annotated Bibliography. Second Edition.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jones, Douglas E.

    This annotated bibliography on global climate change contains 27 articles designed to expand the breadth and depth of information presented in the Global Change Information Packet. Most articles were chosen from journals likely to be available in most medium-sized public or college libraries. The articles cover a variety of topics related to…

  7. Balancing Change and Tradition in Global Education Reform

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rotberg, Iris C., Ed.

    2004-01-01

    In Balancing Change and Tradition in Global Education Reform, Rotberg brings together examples of current education reforms in sixteen countries, written by "insiders". This book goes beyond myths and stereotypes and describes the difficult trade-offs countries make as they attempt to implement reforms in the context of societal and global change.…

  8. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE--THE TECHNOLOGY CHALLENGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations which are at least partly responsible for the roughly 0.7% degree C global warming earth has experienced since the industrial revolution. With industrial activit...

  9. Global Stories of People Working for Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dragman, June; Szasz, Michael

    Developed by a Canadian volunteer organization, this textbook for high school and adult English-as-a-Second-Language (ESL) and literacy students explores current international events and social issues using both personal and global perspectives. It includes personal stories of people's lives, discussions of social and political issues in a wider…

  10. Ecological response to global climatic change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Malanson, G.P.; Butler, D.R.; Walsh, S. J.; Janelle, Donald G.; Warf, Barney; Hansen, Kathy

    2004-01-01

    Climate change and ecological change go hand in hand. Because we value our ecological environment, any change has the potential to be a problem. Geographers have been drawn to this challenge, and have been successful in addressing it, because the primary ecological response to climate changes in the past — the waxing and waning of the great ice sheets over the past 2 million years – was the changing geographic range of the biota. Plants and animals changed their location. Geographers have been deeply involved in documenting the changing biota of the past, and today we are called upon to help assess the possible responses to ongoing and future climatic change and, thus, their impacts. Assessing the potential responses is important for policy makers to judge the outcomes of action or inaction and also sets the stage for preparation for and mitigation of change.

  11. Characterization of Changes in Global Genes Expression in the Distal Colon of Loperamide-Induced Constipation SD Rats in Response to the Laxative Effects of Liriope platyphylla

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Ji Eun; Park, So Hae; Kwak, Moon Hwa; Go, Jun; Koh, Eun Kyoung; Song, Sung Hwa; Sung, Ji Eun; Lee, Hee Seob; Hong, Jin Tae; Hwang, Dae Youn

    2015-01-01

    To characterize the changes in global gene expression in the distal colon of constipated SD rats in response to the laxative effects of aqueous extracts of Liriope platyphylla (AEtLP), including isoflavone, saponin, oligosaccharide, succinic acid and hydroxyproline, the total RNA extracted from the distal colon of AEtLP-treated constipation rats was hybridized to oligonucleotide microarrays. The AEtLP treated rats showed an increase in the number of stools, mucosa thickness, flat luminal surface thickness, mucin secretion, and crypt number. Overall, compared to the controls, 581 genes were up-regulated and 216 genes were down-regulated by the constipation induced by loperamide in the constipated rats. After the AEtLP treatment, 67 genes were up-regulated and 421 genes were down-regulated. Among the transcripts up-regulated by constipation, 89 were significantly down-regulated and 22 were recovered to the normal levels by the AEtLP treatment. The major genes in the down-regulated categories included Slc9a5, klk10, Fgf15, and Alpi, whereas the major genes in the recovered categories were Cyp2b2, Ace, G6pc, and Setbp1. On the other hand, after the AEtLP treatment, ten of these genes down-regulated by constipation were up-regulated significantly and five were recovered to the normal levels. The major genes in the up-regulated categories included Serpina3n, Lcn2 and Slc5a8, whereas the major genes in the recovered categories were Tmem45a, Rerg and Rgc32. These results indicate that several gene functional groups and individual genes as constipation biomarkers respond to an AEtLP treatment in constipated model rats. PMID:26151867

  12. Models - Another tool for use in global change research

    SciTech Connect

    Wullschleger, S.D.; Baldocchi, D.D.; King, A.W.; Post, W.M. )

    1994-06-01

    Models are increasingly being used in the plant sciences to integrate and extrapolate information derived from laboratory and field investigations. To illustrate the utility of models in global change research, a series of leaf, canopy, ecosystem, and global-scale models are used to explore the response of trees to atmospheric CO[sub 2] enrichment. A biochemical model highlights the effects of elevated CO[sub 2] and temperature on photosynthesis, the consequences of Rubisco down-regulation to leaf and canopy carbon gain, and the relationships among stomatal conductance, transpiration, leaf area, and canopy energy balance. A forest succession model examines the effects of CO[sub 2] on species composition and forest productivity, while a model of the global carbon cycle illustrates the effects of rising CO[sub 2] on terrestrial carbon storage and the interaction of this affect with temperature. We conclude that models are appropriate tools for use both in guiding existing studies and in identifying new hypotheses for future research.

  13. U.S. Global Change Research Program

    MedlinePlus

    ... Learn More Read the Full Announcement from NOAA Climate Change a Growing Threat to Human Health New USGCRP ... Announcing... Read more The Deepening Story of How Climate Change Threatens Human Health Read more Celebrating the 25th ...

  14. Global priorities for national carnivore conservation under land use change.

    PubMed

    Di Minin, Enrico; Slotow, Rob; Hunter, Luke T B; Montesino Pouzols, Federico; Toivonen, Tuuli; Verburg, Peter H; Leader-Williams, Nigel; Petracca, Lisanne; Moilanen, Atte

    2016-04-01

    Mammalian carnivores have suffered the biggest range contraction among all biodiversity and are particularly vulnerable to habitat loss and fragmentation. Therefore, we identified priority areas for the conservation of mammalian carnivores, while accounting for species-specific requirements for connectivity and expected agricultural and urban expansion. While prioritizing for carnivores only, we were also able to test their effectiveness as surrogates for 23,110 species of amphibians, birds, mammals and reptiles and 867 terrestrial ecoregions. We then assessed the risks to carnivore conservation within each country that makes a contribution to global carnivore conservation. We found that land use change will potentially lead to important range losses, particularly amongst already threatened carnivore species. In addition, the 17% of land targeted for protection under the Aichi Target 11 was found to be inadequate to conserve carnivores under expected land use change. Our results also highlight that land use change will decrease the effectiveness of carnivores to protect other threatened species, especially threatened amphibians. In addition, the risk of human-carnivore conflict is potentially high in countries where we identified spatial priorities for their conservation. As meeting the global biodiversity target will be inadequate for carnivore protection, innovative interventions are needed to conserve carnivores outside protected areas to compliment any proposed expansion of the protected area network.

  15. Global priorities for national carnivore conservation under land use change

    PubMed Central

    Di Minin, Enrico; Slotow, Rob; Hunter, Luke T. B.; Montesino Pouzols, Federico; Toivonen, Tuuli; Verburg, Peter H.; Leader-Williams, Nigel; Petracca, Lisanne; Moilanen, Atte

    2016-01-01

    Mammalian carnivores have suffered the biggest range contraction among all biodiversity and are particularly vulnerable to habitat loss and fragmentation. Therefore, we identified priority areas for the conservation of mammalian carnivores, while accounting for species-specific requirements for connectivity and expected agricultural and urban expansion. While prioritizing for carnivores only, we were also able to test their effectiveness as surrogates for 23,110 species of amphibians, birds, mammals and reptiles and 867 terrestrial ecoregions. We then assessed the risks to carnivore conservation within each country that makes a contribution to global carnivore conservation. We found that land use change will potentially lead to important range losses, particularly amongst already threatened carnivore species. In addition, the 17% of land targeted for protection under the Aichi Target 11 was found to be inadequate to conserve carnivores under expected land use change. Our results also highlight that land use change will decrease the effectiveness of carnivores to protect other threatened species, especially threatened amphibians. In addition, the risk of human-carnivore conflict is potentially high in countries where we identified spatial priorities for their conservation. As meeting the global biodiversity target will be inadequate for carnivore protection, innovative interventions are needed to conserve carnivores outside protected areas to compliment any proposed expansion of the protected area network. PMID:27034197

  16. Second International Symposium on the Biogeochemistry of Model Estuaries: Estuarine processes in global change. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Windom, H.L.

    1991-12-31

    This report summarizes estuary events discussed at the symposium on biogeochemistry. Topics include; sedimentation, salinity, inputs and outputs of the estuary, effects of global change, and the need for effective sampling and modeling of estuaries.

  17. Psychology's contributions to understanding and addressing global climate change.

    PubMed

    Swim, Janet K; Stern, Paul C; Doherty, Thomas J; Clayton, Susan; Reser, Joseph P; Weber, Elke U; Gifford, Robert; Howard, George S

    2011-01-01

    Global climate change poses one of the greatest challenges facing humanity in this century. This article, which introduces the American Psychologist special issue on global climate change, follows from the report of the American Psychological Association Task Force on the Interface Between Psychology and Global Climate Change. In this article, we place psychological dimensions of climate change within the broader context of human dimensions of climate change by addressing (a) human causes of, consequences of, and responses (adaptation and mitigation) to climate change and (b) the links between these aspects of climate change and cognitive, affective, motivational, interpersonal, and organizational responses and processes. Characteristics of psychology that cross content domains and that make the field well suited for providing an understanding of climate change and addressing its challenges are highlighted. We also consider ethical imperatives for psychologists' involvement and provide suggestions for ways to increase psychologists' contribution to the science of climate change.

  18. Transitional states in marine fisheries: adapting to predicted global change.

    PubMed

    MacNeil, M Aaron; Graham, Nicholas A J; Cinner, Joshua E; Dulvy, Nicholas K; Loring, Philip A; Jennings, Simon; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Fisk, Aaron T; McClanahan, Tim R

    2010-11-27

    Global climate change has the potential to substantially alter the production and community structure of marine fisheries and modify the ongoing impacts of fishing. Fish community composition is already changing in some tropical, temperate and polar ecosystems, where local combinations of warming trends and higher environmental variation anticipate the changes likely to occur more widely over coming decades. Using case studies from the Western Indian Ocean, the North Sea and the Bering Sea, we contextualize the direct and indirect effects of climate change on production and biodiversity and, in turn, on the social and economic aspects of marine fisheries. Climate warming is expected to lead to (i) yield and species losses in tropical reef fisheries, driven primarily by habitat loss; (ii) community turnover in temperate fisheries, owing to the arrival and increasing dominance of warm-water species as well as the reduced dominance and departure of cold-water species; and (iii) increased diversity and yield in Arctic fisheries, arising from invasions of southern species and increased primary production resulting from ice-free summer conditions. How societies deal with such changes will depend largely on their capacity to adapt--to plan and implement effective responses to change--a process heavily influenced by social, economic, political and cultural conditions.

  19. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change.

    PubMed

    Moffitt, Sarah E; Hill, Tessa M; Roopnarine, Peter D; Kennett, James P

    2015-04-14

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mL⋅L(-1) [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems.

  20. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change

    PubMed Central

    Moffitt, Sarah E.; Hill, Tessa M.; Roopnarine, Peter D.; Kennett, James P.

    2015-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mL⋅L−1 [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems. PMID:25825727

  1. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moffitt, Sarah E.; Hill, Tessa M.; Roopnarine, Peter D.; Kennett, James P.

    2015-04-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mLṡL-1 [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems.

  2. Climate Change and Expected Impacts on the Global Water Cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rind, David; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    How the elements of the global hydrologic cycle may respond to climate change is reviewed, first from a discussion of the physical sensitivity of these elements to changes in temperature, and then from a comparison of observations of hydrologic changes over the past 100 million years. Observations of current changes in the hydrologic cycle are then compared with projected future changes given the prospect of global warming. It is shown that some of the projections come close to matching the estimated hydrologic changes that occurred long ago when the earth was very warm.

  3. Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.

    2011-01-01

    The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1m is also analyzed that appears to be complete since approximately 1960. Various kernel density estimates used to determine the rate distribution with time indicate a prominent rate change in global tsunamis during the mid-1990s. Less prominent rate changes occur in the early- and mid-20th century. To determine whether these rate fluctuations are anomalous, the distribution of annual event numbers for the tsunami catalogue is compared to Poisson and negative binomial distributions, the latter of which includes the effects of temporal clustering. Compared to a Poisson distribution, the negative binomial distribution model provides a consistent fit to tsunami event numbers for the >1m data set, but the Poisson null hypothesis cannot be falsified for the shorter duration >0.1m data set. Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is also indicated by the distribution of interevent times for both data sets. Tsunami event clusters consist only of two to four events, in contrast to protracted sequences of earthquakes that make up foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequences. From past studies of seismicity, it is likely that there is a physical triggering mechanism responsible for events within the tsunami source 'mini-clusters'. In conclusion, prominent transient rate increases in the occurrence of global tsunamis appear to be caused by temporal grouping of geographically distinct mini-clusters, in addition to the random preferential location of global M >7 earthquakes along offshore fault zones.

  4. Possible change in distribution of seaweed, Sargassum horneri, in northeast Asia under A2 scenario of global warming and consequent effect on some fish.

    PubMed

    Komatsu, Teruhisa; Fukuda, Masahiro; Mikami, Atsuko; Mizuno, Shizuha; Kantachumpoo, Attachai; Tanoue, Hideaki; Kawamiya, Michio

    2014-08-30

    Global warming effects on seaweed beds are already perceptible. Their geographical distributions greatly depend on water temperatures. To predict future geographical distributions of brown alga, Sargassum horneri, forming large beds in the northwestern Pacific, we referred to future monthly surface water temperatures at about 1.1° of longitude and 0.6° of latitude in February and August in 2050 and 2100 simulated by 12 organizations under an A2 scenario of global warming. The southern limit of S. horneri distribution is expected to keep moving northward such that it may broadly disappear from Honshu Island, the Chinese coast, and Korean Peninsula in 2100, when tropical Sargassum species such as Sargassum tenuifolium may not completely replace S. horneri. Thus, their forests in 2100 do not substitute those of S. horneri in 2000. Fishes using the beds and seaweed rafts consisting of S. horneri in East China Sea suffer these disappearances.

  5. Overview of global greenhouse effects

    SciTech Connect

    Reck, R.A.

    1993-09-01

    This report reviews the factors that influence the evolution of climate and climate change. Recent studies have confirmed that CO{sub 2}, O{sub 3}, N{sub 2}O, CH{sub 4}, and chlorofluorocarbos are increasing in abundance in the atmosphere and can alter the radiation balance by means of the so-called greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect is as well-accepted phenomenon, but the prediction of its consequences is much less certain. Attempts to detect a human-caused temperature change are still inconclusive. This report presents a discussion of the scientific basis for the greenhouse effect, its relationship to the abundances of greenhouse gases, and the evidence confirming the increases in the abundances. The basis for climate modeling is presented together with an example of the model outputs from one of the most sophisticated modeling efforts. Uncertainties in the present understanding of climate are outlined.

  6. PERSPECTIVE: Climate change, biofuels, and global food security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cassman, Kenneth G.

    2007-03-01

    source: faostat.fao.org/site/395/default.aspx. Given this situation, the question of whether global climate change will have a net positive, negative, or negligible impact on crop yields takes on a larger significance because additional hundreds of millions of people could be at risk of hunger and the window of opportunity for mounting an effective response is closing. To answer this question, Lobell and Field use an innovative empirical/geostatistical approach to estimate the impact of increased temperature since 1980 on crop yields—a period when global mean temperature increased ~0.4 °C [2]. For three major crops—maize, wheat, and barley—there was a significant negative response to increased temperature. For all six crops evaluated (also including rice, soybean, and sorghum), the net impact of climate trends on yield since 1980 was negative. While the approach used by Lobell and Field can be questioned on several pointsNote2, the body of their work represents an ambitious global assessment of recent climate impact on crop yields. Most noteworthy is their conclusion that: the combined effects of increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate trends have largely cancelled each other over the past two decades. They contrast their finding with the conclusion of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that CO2 benefits will exceed temperature-related yield reductions up to a 2 °C increase in mean temperature [3]. It should be noted, however, that the IPCC is coming out with a new assessment to be released in April 2007 (www.ipcc.ch/), and it remains to be seen if this conclusion still holds. The purpose here is not to support or challenge the conclusions of either Lobell and Field or the IPCC, but rather to highlight the fact that there are substantive differences between results obtained from geostatistical assessments based on recent climate trends and actual crop yields versus assessments based on results from controlled experiments in growth

  7. Studies and research on global climate change produced in Dobrogea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serban, Cristina; Maftei, Carmen; Zagan, Sabina; Chitu, Greti; Zagan, Remus

    2013-04-01

    Studies and research on global climate change produced in Dobrogea Atmospheric phenomena risk, high acuity products in recent years compels us to a more careful study of the phenomena caused by global climate change produced in Dobrogea. Risk atmospheric phenomena and quick release is characterized by extremely high energies that are catastrophic, sudden and hard to prognosis in current contexts. In our paper we clarify the concept of aridity, and discusses related concepts including indices of aridity, and their influence on Dobrogea area and soil features including climatic water deficit. The drought impact is evaluated by calculating different indices of drought from meteorological and hydrological point of view. In Dobrogea, the phenomena mentioned already manifested by hail, violent storms, tornadoes, heavy precipitation, rainfall, manifested in short periods, producing floods and landslides. Sudden changes, increased environmental air parameters (temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure) creates, in turn, serious human discomfort and other negative effects of socio-economic. These "risk events" is frequently interleaves severe periods of drought, completing the sequence of natural disasters are difficult to predict. Another characteristic of desertification in Dobrogea is eroding - cruel impoverishment of the soil created by strong winds and violent rain causes strong erosion. Dust storms and sand pits desert areas severely affects state land, forests and degrade air quality breathable, cruelly destroying into ozone. Summarizing, the objective of this paper is to present some results using drought indices and a Grid computing application, which estimates the land surface temperature (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) at regional scale.

  8. Coastal wetlands and global change: overview

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Guntenspergen, G.R.; Vairin, B.; Burkett, V.R.

    1997-01-01

    The potential impacts of climate change are of great practical concern to those interested in coastal wetland resources. Among the areas of greatest risk in the United States are low-lying coastal habitats with easily eroded substrates which occur along the northern Gulf of Mexico and southeast Atlantic coasts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) have identified coastal wetlands as ecosystems most vulnerable to direct, large-scale impacts of climate change, primarily because of their sensitivity to increases in sea-level rise.

  9. Systems approaches in global change and biogeochemistry research

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Pete; Albanito, Fabrizio; Bell, Madeleine; Bellarby, Jessica; Blagodatskiy, Sergey; Datta, Arindam; Dondini, Marta; Fitton, Nuala; Flynn, Helen; Hastings, Astley; Hillier, Jon; Jones, Edward O.; Kuhnert, Matthias; Nayak, Dali R.; Pogson, Mark; Richards, Mark; Sozanska-Stanton, Gosia; Wang, Shifeng; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh B.; Bottoms, Emily; Brown, Chris; Farmer, Jenny; Feliciano, Diana; Hao, Cui; Robertson, Andy; Vetter, Sylvia; Wong, Hon Man; Smith, Jo

    2012-01-01

    Systems approaches have great potential for application in predictive ecology. In this paper, we present a range of examples, where systems approaches are being developed and applied at a range of scales in the field of global change and biogeochemical cycling. Systems approaches range from Bayesian calibration techniques at plot scale, through data assimilation methods at regional to continental scales, to multi-disciplinary numerical model applications at country to global scales. We provide examples from a range of studies and show how these approaches are being used to address current topics in global change and biogeochemical research, such as the interaction between carbon and nitrogen cycles, terrestrial carbon feedbacks to climate change and the attribution of observed global changes to various drivers of change. We examine how transferable the methods and techniques might be to other areas of ecosystem science and ecology. PMID:22144393

  10. Systems approaches in global change and biogeochemistry research.

    PubMed

    Smith, Pete; Albanito, Fabrizio; Bell, Madeleine; Bellarby, Jessica; Blagodatskiy, Sergey; Datta, Arindam; Dondini, Marta; Fitton, Nuala; Flynn, Helen; Hastings, Astley; Hillier, Jon; Jones, Edward O; Kuhnert, Matthias; Nayak, Dali R; Pogson, Mark; Richards, Mark; Sozanska-Stanton, Gosia; Wang, Shifeng; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh B; Bottoms, Emily; Brown, Chris; Farmer, Jenny; Feliciano, Diana; Hao, Cui; Robertson, Andy; Vetter, Sylvia; Wong, Hon Man; Smith, Jo

    2012-01-19

    Systems approaches have great potential for application in predictive ecology. In this paper, we present a range of examples, where systems approaches are being developed and applied at a range of scales in the field of global change and biogeochemical cycling. Systems approaches range from Bayesian calibration techniques at plot scale, through data assimilation methods at regional to continental scales, to multi-disciplinary numerical model applications at country to global scales. We provide examples from a range of studies and show how these approaches are being used to address current topics in global change and biogeochemical research, such as the interaction between carbon and nitrogen cycles, terrestrial carbon feedbacks to climate change and the attribution of observed global changes to various drivers of change. We examine how transferable the methods and techniques might be to other areas of ecosystem science and ecology.

  11. Thermohaline circulations and global climate change. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Hanson, H.P.

    1996-10-01

    This report discusses results from the project entitled Thermohaline Circulations and Global Climate Change. Results are discussed in three sections related to the development of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM), surface forcing of the ocean by the atmosphere, and experiments with the MICOM related to the problem of the ocean`s response to global climate change. It will require the use of a global, coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model to quantify the feedbacks between ocean and atmosphere associated with climate changes. The results presented here do provide guidance for such studies in the future.

  12. Transitional states in marine fisheries: adapting to predicted global change

    PubMed Central

    MacNeil, M. Aaron; Graham, Nicholas A. J.; Cinner, Joshua E.; Dulvy, Nicholas K.; Loring, Philip A.; Jennings, Simon; Polunin, Nicholas V. C.; Fisk, Aaron T.; McClanahan, Tim R.

    2010-01-01

    Global climate change has the potential to substantially alter the production and community structure of marine fisheries and modify the ongoing impacts of fishing. Fish community composition is already changing in some tropical, temperate and polar ecosystems, where local combinations of warming trends and higher environmental variation anticipate the changes likely to occur more widely over coming decades. Using case studies from the Western Indian Ocean, the North Sea and the Bering Sea, we contextualize the direct and indirect effects of climate change on production and biodiversity and, in turn, on the social and economic aspects of marine fisheries. Climate warming is expected to lead to (i) yield and species losses in tropical reef fisheries, driven primarily by habitat loss; (ii) community turnover in temperate fisheries, owing to the arrival and increasing dominance of warm-water species as well as the reduced dominance and departure of cold-water species; and (iii) increased diversity and yield in Arctic fisheries, arising from invasions of southern species and increased primary production resulting from ice-free summer conditions. How societies deal with such changes will depend largely on their capacity to adapt—to plan and implement effective responses to change—a process heavily influenced by social, economic, political and cultural conditions. PMID:20980322

  13. One earth, one future. Our changing global environment

    SciTech Connect

    Silver, C.S.; Defries, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    This book reports on deforestation, ozone depletion, global warming, and other matters concerning the global environment. From the perspective that humankind is an increasingly powerful agent changing the planet, the volume describes the Earth as a unified system - exploring the interactions between the atmosphere, land, and water and the snowballing impact that human activity is having on the system - and points out the seemingly paradoxical need for economic growth to alleviate such global environmental problems.

  14. Global Change Simulations Affect Potential Methane Oxidation in Upland Soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blankinship, J. C.; Hungate, B. A.

    2004-12-01

    Atmospheric concentrations of methane (CH4) are higher now than they have ever been during the past 420,000 years. However, concentrations have remained stable since 1999. Emissions associated with livestock husbandry are unlikely to have changed, so some combination of reduced production in wetlands, more efficient capture by landfills, or increased consumption by biological CH4 oxidation in upland soils may be responsible. Methane oxidizing bacteria are ubiquitous in upland soils and little is known about how these bacteria respond to anthropogenic global change, and how they will influence - or already are influencing - the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Might ongoing and future global changes increase biological CH4 oxidation? Soils were sampled from two field experiments to assess changes in rates of CH4 oxidation in response to global change simulations. Potential activities of CH4 oxidizing bacterial communities were measured through laboratory incubations under optimal temperature, soil moisture, and atmospheric CH4 concentrations (~18 ppm, or 10x ambient). The ongoing 6-year multifactorial Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment (JRGCE) simulates warming, elevated precipitation, elevated atmospheric CO2, elevated atmospheric N deposition, and increased wildfire frequency in an annual grassland in a Mediterranean-type climate in central California. The ongoing 1-year multifactorial Merriam Climate Change Experiment (MCCE) simulates warming, elevated precipitation, and reduced precipitation in four different types of ecosystems along an elevational gradient in a semi-arid climate in northern Arizona. The high desert grassland, pinyon-juniper woodland, ponderosa pine forest, and mixed conifer forest ecosystems range in annual precipitation from 100 to 1000 mm yr-1, and from productivity being strongly water limited to strongly temperature limited. Among JRGCE soils, elevated atmospheric CO2 increased potential CH4 oxidation rates (p=0.052) and wildfire

  15. Fingerprinting the impacts of global change on tropical forests.

    PubMed Central

    Lewis, Simon L; Malhi, Yadvinder; Phillips, Oliver L

    2004-01-01

    Recent observations of widespread changes in mature tropical forests such as increasing tree growth, recruitment and mortality rates and increasing above-ground biomass suggest that 'global change' agents may be causing predictable changes in tropical forests. However, consensus over both the robustness of these changes and the environmental drivers that may be causing them is yet to emerge. This paper focuses on the second part of this debate. We review (i) the evidence that the physical, chemical and biological environment that tropical trees grow in has been altered over recent decades across large areas of the tropics, and (ii) the theoretical, experimental and observational evidence regarding the most likely effects of each of these changes on tropical forests. Ten potential widespread drivers of environmental change were identified: temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, climatic extremes (including El Niño-Southern Oscillation events), atmospheric CO2 concentrations, nutrient deposition, O3/acid depositions, hunting, land-use change and increasing liana numbers. We note that each of these environmental changes is expected to leave a unique 'fingerprint' in tropical forests, as drivers directly force different processes, have different distributions in space and time and may affect some forests more than others (e.g. depending on soil fertility). Thus, in the third part of the paper we present testable a priori predictions of forest responses to assist ecologists in attributing particular changes in forests to particular causes across multiple datasets. Finally, we discuss how these drivers may change in the future and the possible consequences for tropical forests. PMID:15212095

  16. Fingerprinting the impacts of global change on tropical forests.

    PubMed

    Lewis, Simon L; Malhi, Yadvinder; Phillips, Oliver L

    2004-03-29

    Recent observations of widespread changes in mature tropical forests such as increasing tree growth, recruitment and mortality rates and increasing above-ground biomass suggest that 'global change' agents may be causing predictable changes in tropical forests. However, consensus over both the robustness of these changes and the environmental drivers that may be causing them is yet to emerge. This paper focuses on the second part of this debate. We review (i) the evidence that the physical, chemical and biological environment that tropical trees grow in has been altered over recent decades across large areas of the tropics, and (ii) the theoretical, experimental and observational evidence regarding the most likely effects of each of these changes on tropical forests. Ten potential widespread drivers of environmental change were identified: temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, climatic extremes (including El Niño-Southern Oscillation events), atmospheric CO2 concentrations, nutrient deposition, O3/acid depositions, hunting, land-use change and increasing liana numbers. We note that each of these environmental changes is expected to leave a unique 'fingerprint' in tropical forests, as drivers directly force different processes, have different distributions in space and time and may affect some forests more than others (e.g. depending on soil fertility). Thus, in the third part of the paper we present testable a priori predictions of forest responses to assist ecologists in attributing particular changes in forests to particular causes across multiple datasets. Finally, we discuss how these drivers may change in the future and the possible consequences for tropical forests.

  17. Global Water Resources Under Future Changes: Toward an Improved Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Islam, M.; Agata, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2005-05-01

    Global water resources availability in the 21st century is going to be an important concern. Despite its international recognition, however, until now there are very limited global estimates of water resources, which considered the geographical linkage between water supply and demand, defined by runoff and its passage through river network. The available studies are again insufficient due to reasons like different approaches in defining water scarcity, simply based on annual average figures without considering the inter-annual or seasonal variability, absence of the inclusion of virtual water trading, etc. In this study, global water resources under future climate change associated with several socio-economic factors were estimated varying over both temporal and spatial scale. Global runoff data was derived from several land surface models under the GSWP2 (Global Soil Wetness Project) project, which was further processed through TRIP (Total Runoff Integrated Pathways) river routing model to produce a 0.5x0.5 degree grid based figure. Water abstraction was estimated for the same spatial resolution for three sectors as domestic, industrial and agriculture. GCM outputs from CCSR and MRI were collected to predict the runoff changes. Socio-economic factors like population and GDP growth, affected mostly the demand part. Instead of simply looking at annual figures, monthly figures for both supply and demand was considered. For an average year, such a seasonal variability can affect the crop yield significantly. In other case, inter-annual variability of runoff can cause for an absolute drought condition. To account for vulnerabilities of a region to future changes, both inter-annual and seasonal effects were thus considered. At present, the study assumed the future agricultural water uses to be unchanged under climatic changes. In this connection, EPIC model is underway to use for estimating future agricultural water demand under climatic changes on a monthly basis. From

  18. Predicting the persistence of coastal wetlands to global change stressors

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Guntenspergen, G.; McKee, K.; Cahoon, D.; Grace, J.; Megonigal, P.

    2006-01-01

    Despite progress toward understanding the response of coastal wetlands to increases in relative sea-level rise and an improved understanding of the effect of elevated CO2 on plant species allocation patterns, we are limited in our ability to predict the response of coastal wetlands to the effects associated with global change. Static simulations of the response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise using LIDAR and GIS lack the biological and physical feedback mechanisms present in such systems. Evidence from current research suggests that biotic processes are likely to have a major influence on marsh vulnerability to future accelerated rates of sea-level rise and the influence of biotic processes likely varies depending on hydrogeomorphic setting and external stressors. We have initiated a new research approach using a series of controlled mesocosm and field experiments, landscape scale studies, a comparative network of brackish coastal wetland monitoring sites and a suite of predictive models that address critical questions regarding the vulnerability of coastal brackish wetland systems to global change. Specifically, this research project evaluates the interaction of sea level rise and elevated CO2 concentrations with flooding, nutrient enrichment and disturbance effects. The study is organized in a hierarchical structure that links mesocosm, field, landscape and biogeographic levels so as to provide important new information that recognizes that coastal wetland systems respond to multiple interacting drivers and feedback effects controlling wetland surface elevation, habitat stability and ecosystem function. We also present a new statistical modelling technique (Structural Equation Modelling) that synthesizes and integrates our environmental and biotic measures in a predictive framework that forecasts ecosystem change and informs managers to consider adaptive shifts in strategies for the sustainable management of coastal wetlands.

  19. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulwarty, R.

    2009-12-01

    Adaptation measures improve our ability to cope with or avoid harmful climate impacts and take advantage of beneficial ones, now and as climate varies and changes. Adaptation and mitigation are necessary elements of an effective response to climate change. Adaptation options also have the potential to moderate harmful impacts of current and future climate variability and change. The Global Climate Change Impacts Report identifies examples of adaptation-related actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change, as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change such as urban air pollution and heat waves. Some adaptation options that are currently being pursued in various regions and sectors to deal with climate change and/or other environmental issues are identified in this report. A range of adaptation responses can be employed to reduce risks through redesign or relocation of infrastructure, sustainability of ecosystem services, increased redundancy of critical social services, and operational improvements. Adapting to climate change is an evolutionary process and requires both analytic and deliberative decision support. Many of the climate change impacts described in the report have economic consequences. A significant part of these consequences flow through public and private insurance markets, which essentially aggregate and distribute society's risk. However, in most cases, there is currently insufficient robust information to evaluate the practicality, efficiency, effectiveness, costs, or benefits of adaptation measures, highlighting a need for research. Adaptation planning efforts such as that being conducted in New York City and the Colorado River will be described. Climate will be continually changing, moving at a relatively rapid rate, outside the range to which society has adapted in the past. The precise amounts and timing of these changes will not be known with certainty. The

  20. Global environmental change issues in the western Indian ocean region

    SciTech Connect

    Gable, F.J.; Aubrey, D.G.; Gentile, J.H.

    1991-01-01

    Global climate change caused by increased atmospheric trace gas loading is expected to cause a variety of direct and indirect impacts. These impacts include rising sea levels, changes in storm climates, changes in precipitation patterns, and alterations of ocean circulation patterns. The purpose of the paper is to place into a regional context for the Western Indian Ocean region the problems arising from changes in global climate. Specifically, the paper will focus on the potential for impacts in the coastal zone, where the indirect pressures of climate change and anthropogenic forcings (e.g. pollution, dredging, coral mining) and policy (land use, coastal zone) collide.

  1. Spatial Metadata for Global Change Investigations Using Remote Sensing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Emerson, Charles W.; Quattrochi, Dale A.; Lam, Nina Siu-Ngan; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Satellite and aircraft-borne remote sensors have gathered petabytes of data over the past 30+ years. These images are an important resource for establishing cause and effect relationships between human-induced land cover changes and alterations in climate and other biophysical patterns at local to global scales. However, the spatial, temporal, and spectral characteristics of these datasets vary, thus complicating long-term studies involving several types of imagery. As the geographical and temporal coverage, the spectral and spatial resolution, and the number of individual sensors increase, the sheer volume and complexity of available data sets will complicate management and use of the rapidly growing archive of earth imagery. Mining this vast data resource for images that provide the necessary information for climate change studies becomes more difficult as more sensors are launched and more imagery is obtained.

  2. Combined impacts of global changes on biodiversity across the USA.

    PubMed

    Bellard, C; Leclerc, C; Courchamp, F

    2015-07-07

    Most studies of the effects of global changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat, but multiple threats lead to species extinction. We lack spatially explicit assessments of the intensity of multiple threats and their impacts on biodiversity. Here, we used a novel metric of cumulative threats and impacts to assess the consequences of multiple threats on 196 endemic species across the USA. We predict that large areas with high cumulative impact scores for amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles will be concentrated in the eastern part of the USA by the 2050 s and 2080  . These high cumulative impact values are due mainly to the presence of invasive species, climate change, cropland and pasture areas; additionally, a significant proportion of endemic species are vulnerable to some of these threats where they occur. This analysis provides a useful means of identifying where conservation measures and monitoring programs that should consider multiple threats should be implemented in the future.

  3. Children in Psychodynamic Psychotherapy: Changes in Global Functioning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Odhammar, Fredrik; Sundin, Eva C.; Jonson, Mattias; Carlberg, Gunnar

    2011-01-01

    This study was part of the Erica Process and Outcome Study. The aim was to investigate if children's global functioning improves after psychodynamic psychotherapy. Variables that may predict changes in global functioning were examined both statistically and qualitatively, for example, the child's age and gender; diagnosis and comorbidity;…

  4. International Peer Collaboration to Learn about Global Climate Changes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Korsager, Majken; Slotta, James D.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is not local; it is global. This means that many environmental issues related to climate change are not geographically limited and hence concern humans in more than one location. There is a growing body of research indicating that today's increased climate change is caused by human activities and our modern lifestyle. Consequently,…

  5. Assessing Elementary Science Methods Students' Understanding about Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lambert, Julie L.; Lindgren, Joan; Bleicher, Robert

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change, referred to as climate change in this paper, has become an important planetary issue, and given that K-12 students have numerous alternative conceptions or lack of prior knowledge, it is critical that teachers have an understanding of the fundamental science underlying climate change. Teachers need to understand the natural…

  6. Impact of global seismicity on sea level change assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melini, D.; Piersanti, A.

    2006-03-01

    We analyze the effect of seismic activity on sea level variations by computing the time-dependent vertical crustal movement and geoid change due to coseismic deformations and postseismic relaxation effects. Seismic activity can affect both the absolute sea level, changing the Earth's gravity field and hence the geoid height, and the relative sea level (RSL), i.e., the radial distance between seafloor and geoid level. By using comprehensive seismic catalogs we assess the net effect of seismicity on tidal relative sea level measurements as well as on the global oceanic surfaces, and we obtain an estimate of absolute sea level variations of seismic origin. We modified the approach adopted in our previous analysis, considering the issue of water volume conservation by applying the sealevel equation, and we improved our computational methods, enabling us to evaluate the effect of an extremely large number of earthquakes on large grids covering the whole oceanic surface. These new potentialities allow us to perform more detailed investigations and to discover a quantitative explanation for the overall tendency of earthquakes to produce a positive global relative sea level variation. Our results confirm the finding of a previous analysis that on a global scale most of the signal is associated with a few giant thrust events and that RSL estimates obtained using tide gauge data can be sensibly affected by the seismically driven sea level signal. The recent measures of sea level obtained by satellite altimetry show a wide regional variation of sea level trends over the oceanic surface, with the largest deviations from the mean trend occurring in tectonically active regions. While our estimates of average absolute sea level variations turn out to be orders of magnitude smaller than the satellite-measured variations, we can still argue that the mass redistribution associated with aseismic tectonic processes may contribute to the observed regional variability of sea level

  7. Global lightning activity and climate change. Ph.D. Thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Price, C.G.

    1993-01-01

    The relationship between global lightning frequencies and global climate change is examined in this thesis. In order to study global impacts of climate change, global climate models or General Circulations Models (GCM`s) need to be utilized. Since these models have coarse resolutions many atmospheric phenomena that occur at subgrid scales, such as lightning, need to be parameterized whenever possible. The first chapter introduces a simple parameterization used to simulate total (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) lightning frequencies. The parameterization uses convective cloud top height to approximate lightning frequencies. The second chapter deals with a parameterization for simulating cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning around the globe. This parameterization uses the thickness of the cold cloud sector in thunderstorms (0 C to cloud top) to calculate the proportion of CG flashes in a particular thunderstorm. The third chapter deals with the modelling of lightning in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. This chapter presents results from the model`s control run. The fourth chapter presents two climate change scenarios. One for a climate where the solar constant is reduced by 2% (5.9 C global cooling), and one for a climate with twice the present concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere (4.2 C global warming). The results imply a 24% / 30% decrease/increase in global lightning frequencies for the cooler/warmer climate. The fifth chapter considers the possibility of using the above findings to monitor future global warming. The results show that the earth`s ionospheric potential, which is regulated by global thunderstorm activity, could possibly supply valuable information regarding global surface temperature fluctuations. The sixth and final chapter looks at the implications of changes in both lightning frequencies and the hydrological cycle, as a result of global warming, on natural forest fires.

  8. Technological Change, Globalization, and the Community College

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Romano, Richard M.; Dellow, Donald A.

    2009-01-01

    In early nineteenth-century England, workers now known as Luddites roamed the countryside destroying machinery that they saw as creating unemployment and upsetting their traditional way of life. They believed that the growing mechanization of production, what people would now call technological change, and the expanding volume of trade ushered in…

  9. Temperature, global climate change and food security

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Accelerated climate change is expected to have a significant, but variable impact on the world’s major cropping zones. Crops will experience increasingly warmer, drier and more variable growing conditions in the temperate to subtropical latitudes towards 2050 and beyond. Short-term (1-5 day) spikes ...

  10. Examining Long-Term Global Climate Change on the Web.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huntoon, Jacqueline E.; Ridky, Robert K.

    2002-01-01

    Describes a web-based, inquiry-oriented activity that enables students to examine long-term global climate change. Supports instruction in other topics such as population growth. (Contains 34 references.) (DDR)

  11. Twenty-Five Years of Interdisciplinary Global Change Science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard

    2014-12-01

    An interdisciplinary approach to global change research is required for scientific advances that are both fundamental and relevant to real-world problems. The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI), under the leadership of director John Katzenberger, has provided global leadership for such interdisciplinary science over the past 25 years. From its first workshop, AGCI has brought together physical and social scientists researching the drivers of change, Earth system response, natural and human system impacts, and options for risk management. The sessions are small (usually around 30 participants), held in a retreat-like setting (recently in a tent near a stream), and long enough (a week or more) to allow communication, reflection, and planning. Landmark AGCI science sessions have frequently set the course of future global change research.

  12. Global warming: China’s contribution to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spracklen, Dominick V.

    2016-03-01

    Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel use in China have grown dramatically in the past few decades, yet it emerges that the country's relative contribution to global climate change has remained surprisingly constant. See Letter p.357

  13. A SUMMARY OF NHEERL ECOLOGICAL RESEARCH ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    The purpose of this document is to review ecological research conducted by scientists at the National Health and Environmental Research Laboratory (NHEERL) under the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) contribution to the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The inten...

  14. Global climate change and the mitigation challenge.

    PubMed

    Princiotta, Frank

    2009-10-01

    Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide (CO2), have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations, very likely the primary cause of the 0.8 degrees C warming the Earth has experienced since the Industrial Revolution. With industrial activity and population expected to increase for the rest of the century, large increases in greenhouse gas emissions are projected, with substantial global additional warming predicted. This paper examines forces driving CO2 emissions, a concise sector-by-sector summary of mitigation options, and research and development (R&D) priorities. To constrain warming to below approximately 2.5 degrees C in 2100, the recent annual 3% CO2 emission growth rate needs to transform rapidly to an annual decrease rate of from 1 to 3% for decades. Furthermore, the current generation of energy generation and end-use technologies are capable of achieving less than half of the emission reduction needed for such a major mitigation program. New technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate, especially for the key power generation and transportation sectors. Current energy technology research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RDD&D) programs fall far short of what is required.

  15. Global climate change and the mitigation challenge

    SciTech Connect

    Frank Princiotta

    2009-10-15

    Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations, very likely the primary cause of the 0.8{sup o}C warming the Earth has experienced since the Industrial Revolution. With industrial activity and population expected to increase for the rest of the century, large increases in greenhouse gas emissions are projected, with substantial global additional warming predicted. This paper examines forces driving CO{sub 2} emissions, a concise sector-by-sector summary of mitigation options, and research and development (R&D) priorities. To constrain warming to below approximately 2.5{sup o}C in 2100, the recent annual 3% CO{sub 2} emission growth rate needs to transform rapidly to an annual decrease rate of from 1 to 3% for decades. Furthermore, the current generation of energy generation and end-use technologies are capable of achieving less than half of the emission reduction needed for such a major mitigation program. New technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate, especially for the key power generation and transportation sectors. Current energy technology research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RDD&D) programs fall far short of what is required. 20 refs., 18 figs., 4 tabs.

  16. Global change feed-back inhibits cyanobacterial photosynthesis

    PubMed Central

    Walter Helbling, E.; Banaszak, Anastazia T.; Villafañe, Virginia E.

    2015-01-01

    Cyanobacteria are an important component of aquatic ecosystems, with a proliferation of massive cyanobacterial blooms predicted worldwide under increasing warming conditions. In addition to temperature, other global change related variables, such as water column stratification, increases in dissolved organic matter (DOM) discharge into freshwater systems and greater wind stress (i.e., more opaque and mixed upper water column/epilimnion) might also affect the responses of cyanobacteria. However, the combined effects of these variables on cyanobacterial photosynthesis remain virtually unknown. Here we present evidence that this combination of global-change conditions results in a feed-back mechanism by which, fluctuations in solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR, 280–400 nm) due to vertical mixing within the epilimnion act synergistically with increased DOM to impair cyanobacterial photosynthesis as the water column progressively darkens. The main consequence of such a feed-back response is that these organisms will not develop large blooms in areas of latitudes higher than 30°, in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, where DOM inputs and surface wind stress are increasing. PMID:26415603

  17. [Forest litter decomposition and its responses to global climate change].

    PubMed

    Yang, Wan-Qin; Deng, Ren-Ju; Zhang, Jian

    2007-12-01

    Litter decomposition is one of the important processes in forest ecosystem, which is controlled by both biotic and abiotic factors such as climate, litter quality, and soil organisms. Up to now, numerous studies have been made on the dynamics of aboveground litter in different forest ecosystems, nutrient release during its decomposition, and effects of biotic and abiotic factors on the decomposition, but less information has been reported on the decomposition of belowground forest litter. Recently, the responses of forest litter decomposition to global climate change characterized by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature have got worldwide concern, but there remains uncertainty in research results. In the further study, more attention should be paid on the contribution of forest litter decomposition to soil organic carbon sequestration, the physical, chemical and biological processes of below- and above-ground litter decomposition, the responses of forest litter decomposition to the ecological factors (e.g. seasonal freeze-thaw cycle and drying-rewetting cycle) and their interactions, and the mechanisms of litter (especially belowground litter) decomposition responses to global climate change.

  18. THE IMPACT OF THERMAL ENGINEERING RESEARCH ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    SciTech Connect

    Phelan, Patrick; Abdelaziz, Omar; Otanicar, Todd; Phelan, Bernadette; Prasher, Ravi; Taylor, Robert; Tyagi, Himanshu

    2014-01-01

    Global climate change is recognized by many people around the world as being one of the most pressing issues facing our society today. The thermal engineering research community clearly plays an important role in addressing this critical issue, but what kind of thermal engineering research is, or will be, most impactful? In other words, in what directions should thermal engineering research be targeted in order to derive the greatest benefit with respect to global climate change? To answer this question we consider the potential reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, coupled with potential economic impacts, resulting from thermal engineering research. Here a new model framework is introduced that allows a technological, sector-by-sector analysis of GHG emissions avoidance. For each sector, we consider the maximum reduction in CO2 emissions due to such research, and the cost effectiveness of the new efficient technologies. The results are normalized on a country-by-country basis, where we consider the USA, the European Union, China, India, and Australia as representative countries or regions. Among energy supply-side technologies, improvements in coal-burning power generation are seen as having the most beneficial CO2 and economic impacts. The one demand-side technology considered, residential space cooling, offers positive but limited impacts. The proposed framework can be extended to include additional technologies and impacts, such as water consumption.

  19. Global change and the evolution of phenotypic plasticity in plants.

    PubMed

    Matesanz, Silvia; Gianoli, Ernesto; Valladares, Fernando

    2010-09-01

    Global change drivers create new environmental scenarios and selective pressures, affecting plant species in various interacting ways. Plants respond with changes in phenology, physiology, and reproduction, with consequences for biotic interactions and community composition. We review information on phenotypic plasticity, a primary means by which plants cope with global change scenarios, recommending promising approaches for investigating the evolution of plasticity and describing constraints to its evolution. We discuss the important but largely ignored role of phenotypic plasticity in range shifts and review the extensive literature on invasive species as models of evolutionary change in novel environments. Plasticity can play a role both in the short-term response of plant populations to global change as well as in their long-term fate through the maintenance of genetic variation. In new environmental conditions, plasticity of certain functional traits may be beneficial (i.e., the plastic response is accompanied by a fitness advantage) and thus selected for. Plasticity can also be relevant in the establishment and persistence of plants in novel environments that are crucial for populations at the colonizing edge in range shifts induced by climate change. Experimental studies show taxonomically widespread plastic responses to global change drivers in many functional traits, though there is a lack of empirical support for many theoretical models on the evolution of phenotypic plasticity. Future studies should assess the adaptive value and evolutionary potential of plasticity under complex, realistic global change scenarios. Promising tools include resurrection protocols and artificial selection experiments.

  20. High-resolution Global Crop Simulation Design and Implementation for Sustainability and Climate Change Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, S.; Kline, K.; Post, W.; Nichols, J.; Nair, S.; Singh, N.; Wang, D.; Wullschleger, S. D.; Izaurralde, R. C.

    2012-12-01

    International communities seek expanded understanding of the land use change issues associated with food and bioenergy production, and climate change; however, the existing assessments of large-scale deployment, utilization, and sustainability of crop production systems are insufficiently quantitative at the global scale. To undertake this broad analysis of large-scale crop production, an analysis framework to meet the challenges with a regionally and globally distributed agroecosystem model is needed. We designed a global modeling platform of crop production, consisting of five major components: (i) standardized global natural resources and management databases, ii) global simulation unit and management scenarios, iii) model calibration and validation, iv) high-performance computing (HPC) modeling, and v) simulation output processing and analysis. A case study with the HPC-EPIC model and a perennial bioenergy crop, switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) and global biomass productivity analysis on grassland was conducted to demonstrate the application of this platform. The results indicated that this modeling platform was effective to catch global productivity variability of switchgrass and applicable for the global analysis of crop production and sustainability. Future efforts include enhancing the databases of crops and implementing global simulations for various crops and studying impacts, adaptation and vulnerability of climate change. We anticipated this platform to provide effective tools and assessment data for international communities to conduct global analysis of crop production and sustainability associated with climate change issues.

  1. French space programmes related to global change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fellous, J. L.; Ratier, A.

    The guidelines of the national and cooperative environmental programmes conducted by CNES are complementarity with third agencies' programmes, synergism between scientific and application projects, and promotion of innovative concepts likely to meet the requirements of the World Climate Research and International Geosphere-Biosphere Programmes. While the on-going SPOT series is to provide imagery of land surfaces until 2000, the TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetric mission is being developed by NASA and CNES for launch in mid-1992 in phase with the WOCE intensive field experiments. The design study of the AVISO ocean data system, and the development on behalf of ESA of the ERS-1-dedicated CERSAT facility are consolidating the French effort in space oceanography. Two other research space missions are studied by CNES and French laboratories. BEST, whose phase A study is nearing completion, is a low-altitude, low-inclination, GEWEX-dedicated mission for the investigation of the water and energy cycle in the tropics, with a target launch date in the late 1990's. The phase A study of GLOBSAT, a more IGBP-oriented mission concept, has just been initiated. The first objective of this mission in polar orbit considered for launch around 1997, is to collect comprehensive data sets needed to document key processes related to cloud/radiation interaction, stratospheric/tropospheric chemistry and dynamics of continental and marine ecosystems. The second objective is to start monitoring long-term trends of parameters required to close global budgets of carbon and ozone. The analysis of this space mission concept is conducted in parallel with the development of instruments of opportunity to be flown onboard foreign satellites, and of airborne sensors, either precursor to space instruments or designed for process studies and validation of space data.

  2. Atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, and global vegetation change

    SciTech Connect

    Post, W.M.

    1988-01-01

    Over the past several decades, significant progress has been made in measuring and understanding the global carbon cycle and in developing methods for projecting future changes in the atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentration. During this time, a natural starting point was to check the balance sheet that accounts for all carbon as it exchanged between the major global carbon reservoirs. While it is possible to achieve a balance for a single instant in time, it is not possible with current information to balance carbon fluxes for decade or longer time periods. The inability to account for all carbon exchanges indicated an insufficient knowledge of global carbon cycle processes. In this paper, I outline the scale of the discrepancies involved and offer hypotheses concerning previously underappreciated carbon fluxes that suggest new research directions. These hypotheses postulate global vegetation change at several time scales as a plausible reason for our inability to ''balance'' the global carbon cycle over long time periods. 47 refs.

  3. Buffer capacity, ecosystem feedbacks, and seawater chemistry under global change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jury, C. P.; Thomas, F. I.; Atkinson, M. J.; Jokiel, P. L.; Onuma, M. A.; Kaku, N.; Toonen, R. J.

    2013-12-01

    Ocean acidification (OA) results in reduced seawater pH and aragonite saturation state (Ωarag), but also reduced seawater buffer capacity. As buffer capacity decreases, diel variation in seawater chemistry increases. However, a variety of ecosystem feedbacks can modulate changes in both average seawater chemistry and diel seawater chemistry variation. Here we model these effects for a coastal, reef flat ecosystem. We show that an increase in offshore pCO2 and temperature (to 900 μatm and +3°C) can increase diel pH variation by as much as a factor of 2.5 and can increase diel pCO2 variation by a factor of 4.6, depending on ecosystem feedbacks and seawater residence time. Importantly, these effects are different between day and night. With increasing seawater residence time and increasing feedback intensity, daytime seawater chemistry becomes more similar to present-day conditions while nighttime seawater chemistry becomes less similar to present-day conditions. Better constraining ecosystem feedbacks under global change will improve projections of coastal water chemistry, but this study shows the importance of considering changes in both average carbonate chemistry and diel chemistry variation for organisms and ecosystems. Further, we will discuss our recent work examining the effects of diel seawater chemistry variation on coral calcification rates.

  4. Comment on "Cosmic-ray-driven reaction and greenhouse effect of halogenated molecules: Culprits for atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Müller, Rolf; Grooß, Jens-Uwe

    2014-04-01

    Lu's "cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced reaction (CRE) theory" is based on the assumption that the CRE reaction of halogenated molecules (e.g., chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), HCl, ClONO2) adsorbed or trapped in polar stratospheric clouds in the winter polar stratosphere is the key step in forming photoactive halogen species that are the cause of the springtime ozone hole. This theory has been extended to a warming theory of halogenated molecules for climate change. In this comment, we discuss the chemical and physical foundations of these theories and the conclusions derived from the theories. First, it is unclear whether the loss rates of halogenated molecules induced by dissociative electron attachment (DEA) observed in the laboratory can also be interpreted as atmospheric loss rates, but even if this were the case, the impact of DEA-induced reactions on polar chlorine activation and ozone loss in the stratosphere is limited. Second, we falsify several conclusions that are reported on the basis of the CRE theory: There is no polar ozone loss in darkness, there is no apparent 11-year periodicity in polar total ozone measurements, the age of air in the polar lower stratosphere is much older than 1-2 years, and the reported detection of a pronounced recovery (by about 20-25%) in Antarctic total ozone measurements by the year 2010 is in error. There are also conclusions about the future development of sea ice and global sea level which are fundamentally flawed because Archimedes' principle is neglected. Many elements of the CRE theory are based solely on correlations between certain datasets which are no substitute for providing physical and chemical mechanisms causing a particular behavior noticeable in observations. In summary, the CRE theory cannot be considered as an independent, alternative mechanism for polar stratospheric ozone loss and the conclusions on recent and future surface temperature and global sea level change do not have a physical basis.

  5. Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth.

    PubMed

    Vörösmarty, C J; Green, P; Salisbury, J; Lammers, R B

    2000-07-14

    The future adequacy of freshwater resources is difficult to assess, owing to a complex and rapidly changing geography of water supply and use. Numerical experiments combining climate model outputs, water budgets, and socioeconomic information along digitized river networks demonstrate that (i) a large proportion of the world's population is currently experiencing water stress and (ii) rising water demands greatly outweigh greenhouse warming in defining the state of global water systems to 2025. Consideration of direct human impacts on global water supply remains a poorly articulated but potentially important facet of the larger global change question.

  6. Global Aerospace Industries: Rapid Changes Ahead? (Abridged)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-04-30

    Rapid Changes Ahead? (Abridged) Raymond Franck and Ira Lewis, Naval Postgraduate School Bernard Udis, University of Colorado at Boulder Published...Acquisition Research Program Attn: James B. Greene, RADM, USN, (Ret.) Acquisition Chair Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate... James B. Greene Jr. Keith F. Snider, PhD Rear Admiral, U.S. Navy (Ret.) Associate Professor ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=éêçÖê~ãW= `êÉ~íáåÖ=póåÉêÖó=Ñçê

  7. Remote sensing and global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Vaughan, A.; Cracknell, A.P.

    1994-12-31

    This book, based on lectures from the Dundee Summer Schools in Remote Sensing in 1992, focuses on aspects of remote sensing related to climatic change. The organization of the book focuses on particular parts of the climate system and then discusses the different satellite systems relevant to their measurement. The following subject areas are included in the book: background information about the climate system and remote sensing; atmospheric applications in both lower and upper atmosphere; land surface including snow and ice, altimetry in Antarctica, land surface energy budget and albedo; marine science; ecological monitoring in St. Petersburg, Russia.

  8. Global climate change: A utility industry perspective

    SciTech Connect

    DeMichele, O.M.

    1994-12-31

    Many electric utilities have accepted responsibility to help reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Many have enthusiastically committed their support. No one industry, government or environmental group can take responsibility for, or stop, climate change. However, for a long time, electric utilities took an unfair share of the blame. Since 1973, US electricity use has increased 61%. But, total energy use went up only 11%. Meanwhile, carbon dioxide emissions per dollar of gross domestic product dropped 29%. In other words, increased electrification actually increases energy efficiency and reduces greenhouse gases.

  9. [Global Health. Information for change. 4th report of the Italian Observatory on Global Health].

    PubMed

    2011-01-01

    Global Health. Information for change. 4th report of the Italian Observatory on Global Health. InformAzione (InformAction) is the title of the last OISG report (Italian observatory on Global Health), dedicated to information and education, the essential bases for a conscious action aimed at decreasing inequalities. Increasing the investments in information, education and interventions oriented to global health may broaden the number of aware and informed citizens, able to start a dialogue, to make pressures to increase the interventions in favor of those in need.

  10. The missing data on global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Hansen, J.; Rossow, W.; Fung, I. )

    1990-01-01

    Much of the data we need to characterize changes in the Earth's climate are being acquired by operational satellites and ground stations. Additional parameters need to be measured. The necessary data-gathering instruments are to be included in the Earth Observing Systems, a set of large polar-orbiting platforms to be launched by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration by the end of this decade. Any analysis of climate must take into account climate forcings (anthropogenic or externally imposed changes), climate feedbacks which can be either positive or negative, and climate diagnostics. Existing and proposed sources for acquiring the data are listed in Table 1. A system utilizing three instruments on two satellites is proposed. These small satellites would complement the large polar platforms and speed up the acquisition of data. The three proposed instruments would include an upper atmosphere aerosol and gas monitor, atropospheric aerosol and cloud monitor, and an earth radiation budget monitor at the top of the atmosphere. Preliminary cost estimates and advantages of this system are given.

  11. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #24: PUBLICATION OF FY2001 EDITION OF "OUR CHANGING PLANET"

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA Global Change Research Program is pleased to inform you of the publication of the new Our Changing Planet: The FY2001 U.S. Global Change Research Program. This annual report to the Congress was prepared under the auspices of the President's National Science and Technolog...

  12. Understanding change in global health policy: ideas, discourse and networks.

    PubMed

    Harmer, Andrew

    2011-01-01

    How is radical change in global health policy possible? Material factors such as economics or human resources are important, but ideational factors such as ideas and discourse play an important role as well. In this paper, I apply a theoretical framework to show how discourse made it possible for public and private actors to fundamentally change their way of working together--to shift from international public and private interactions to global health partnerships (GHPs)--and in the process create a new institutional mechanism for governing global health. Drawing on insights from constructivist analysis, I demonstrate how discourse justified, legitimised, communicated and coordinated ideas about the practice of GHPs through a concentrated network of partnership pioneers. As attention from health policy analysts turns increasingly to ideational explanations for answers to global health problems, this paper contributes to the debate by showing how, precisely, discourse makes change possible.

  13. Exploring Local Approaches to Communicating Global Climate Change Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stevermer, A. J.

    2002-12-01

    Expected future climate changes are often presented as a global problem, requiring a global solution. Although this statement is accurate, communicating climate change science and prospective solutions must begin at local levels, each with its own subset of complexities to be addressed. Scientific evaluation of local changes can be complicated by large variability occurring over small spatial scales; this variability hinders efforts both to analyze past local changes and to project future ones. The situation is further encumbered by challenges associated with scientific literacy in the U.S., as well as by pressing economic difficulties. For people facing real-life financial and other uncertainties, a projected ``1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius'' rise in global temperature is likely to remain only an abstract concept. Despite this lack of concreteness, recent surveys have found that most U.S. residents believe current global warming science, and an even greater number view the prospect of increased warming as at least a ``somewhat serious'' problem. People will often be able to speak of long-term climate changes in their area, whether observed changes in the amount of snow cover in winter, or in the duration of extreme heat periods in summer. This work will explore the benefits and difficulties of communicating climate change from a local, rather than global, perspective, and seek out possible strategies for making less abstract, more concrete, and most importantly, more understandable information available to the public.

  14. Role of Bioethanol in Global Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Sheehan, J.

    1998-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) has supported a research and development program for the establishment of renewable, biomass-derived, liquid fuels for the better part of the last twenty years. These 'biofuels' represent opportunities to respond to uncertainties about our energy security and the future health of our environment. Throughout its history, the Biofuels program has experienced an ongoing fiscal 'roller coaster'. Funding has ebbed and flowed with changing political and public attitudes about energy. The program was initiated in a flood of funding in the late 1970s related to the energy shortages experienced in that period. The flooding turned rapidly to drought as falling oil prices dissipated public concern about energy supplies. In the late 1980s, funding for the program slowly increased, driven by national security issues.

  15. The gender perspective in climate change and global health

    PubMed Central

    Preet, Raman; Nilsson, Maria; Schumann, Barbara; Evengård, Birgitta

    2010-01-01

    Background Population health is a primary goal of sustainable development. United Nations international conferences like the Beijing Platform for Action have highlighted the key role of women in ensuring sustainable development. In the context of climate change, women are affected the most while they display knowledge and skills to orient themselves toward climate adaptation activities within their societies. Objective To investigate how the gender perspective is addressed as an issue in research and policy-making concerning climate change and global health. Methods A broad literature search was undertaken using the databases Pubmed and Web of Science to explore the terms ‘climate change,’ ‘health,’ ‘gender,’ and ‘policy.’ Climate change and health-related policy documents of the World Health Organization (WHO) and National Communications and National Adaptation Programs of Action reports submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change of selected countries were studied. Assessment guidelines to review these reports were developed from this study's viewpoint. Results The database search results showed almost no articles when the four terms were searched together. The WHO documents lacked a gender perspective in their approach and future recommendations on climate policies. The reviewed UN reports were also neutral to gender perspective except one of the studied documents. Conclusion Despite recognizing the differential effects of climate change on health of women and men as a consequence of complex social contexts and adaptive capacities, the study finds gender to be an underrepresented or non-existing variable both in research and studied policy documents in the field of climate change and health. PMID:21160554

  16. Global change, parasite transmission and disease control: lessons from ecology

    PubMed Central

    Boag, Brian; Ellison, Amy R.; Morgan, Eric R.; Murray, Kris; Pascoe, Emily L.; Sait, Steven M.; Booth, Mark

    2017-01-01

    Parasitic infections are ubiquitous in wildlife, livestock and human populations, and healthy ecosystems are often parasite rich. Yet, their negative impacts can be extreme. Understanding how both anticipated and cryptic changes in a system might affect parasite transmission at an individual, local and global level is critical for sustainable control in humans and livestock. Here we highlight and synthesize evidence regarding potential effects of ‘system changes’ (both climatic and anthropogenic) on parasite transmission from wild host–parasite systems. Such information could inform more efficient and sustainable parasite control programmes in domestic animals or humans. Many examples from diverse terrestrial and aquatic natural systems show how abiotic and biotic factors affected by system changes can interact additively, multiplicatively or antagonistically to influence parasite transmission, including through altered habitat structure, biodiversity, host demographics and evolution. Despite this, few studies of managed systems explicitly consider these higher-order interactions, or the subsequent effects of parasite evolution, which can conceal or exaggerate measured impacts of control actions. We call for a more integrated approach to investigating transmission dynamics, which recognizes these complexities and makes use of new technologies for data capture and monitoring, and to support robust predictions of altered parasite dynamics in a rapidly changing world. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission’. PMID:28289256

  17. Geodynamic contributions to global climatic change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bills, Bruce G.

    1992-01-01

    Orbital and rotational variations perturb the latitudinal and seasonal pattern of incident solar radiation, producing major climatic change on time scales of 10(exp 4)-10(exp 6) years. The orbital variations are oblivious to internal structure and processes, but the rotational variations are not. A program of investigation whose objective would be to explore and quantify three aspects of orbital, rotational, and climatic interactions is described. An important premise of this investigation is the synergism between geodynamics and paleoclimate. Better geophysical models of precessional dynamics are needed in order to accurately reconstruct the radiative input to climate models. Some of the paleoclimate proxy records contain information relevant to solid Earth processes, on time scales which are difficult to constrain otherwise. Specific mechanisms which will be addressed include: (1) climatic consequences of deglacial polar motion; and (2) precessional and climatic consequences of glacially induced perturbations in the gravitational oblateness and partial decoupling of the mantle and core. The approach entails constructing theoretical models of the rotational, deformational, radiative, and climatic response of the Earth to known orbital perturbations, and comparing these with extensive records of paleoclimate proxy data. Several of the mechanisms of interest may participate in previously unrecognized feed-back loops in the climate dynamics system. A new algorithm for estimating climatically diagnostic locations and seasons from the paleoclimate time series is proposed.

  18. Plant invaders, global change and landscape restoration

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pyke, D.A.; Knick, S.T.

    2005-01-01

    Modifications in land uses, technology, transportation and biogeochemical cycles currently influence the spread of organisms by reducing the barriers that once restricted their movements. We provide an overview of the spatial and temporal extent for agents of environmental change (land and disturbance transformations, biogeochemical modifications, biotic additions and losses) and highlight those that strongly influence rangeland ecosystems. Restoration may provide a mechanism for ameliorating the impacts of invasive species, but applications of restoration practices over large scales, e.g. ecoregions, will yield benefits earlier when the landscape is prioritised by criteria that identify locations where critical restoration species can grow and where success will be high. We used the Great Basin, USA as our region of interest where the invasive annual grass, cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), dominates millions of hectares. A landscape-level restoration model for sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata ssp. tridentata and ssp. wyomingensis) was developed to meet the goal of establishing priority habitat for wildlife. This approach could be used in long-range planning of rangeland ecosystems where funds and labour for restoration projects may vary annually. Copyright ?? NISC Pty Ltd.

  19. Emerging technologies for the changing global market

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cruit, Wendy; Schutzenhofer, Scott; Goldberg, Ben; Everhart, Kurt

    1993-01-01

    This project served to define an appropriate methodology for effective prioritization of technology efforts required to develop replacement technologies mandated by imposed and forecast legislation. The methodology used is a semi-quantative approach derived from quality function deployment techniques (QFD Matrix). This methodology aims to weight the full environmental, cost, safety, reliability, and programmatic implications of replacement technology development to allow appropriate identification of viable candidates and programmatic alternatives. The results will be implemented as a guideline for consideration for current NASA propulsion systems.

  20. USGCRP Global Change Information System Support for the SOCCR-2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolfe, R. E.; Duggan, B.; Aulenbach, S.; Goldstein, J.; Newman, B.; Shrestha, G.; Akamine, B.

    2015-12-01

    The US Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP's) 2nd State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-2) will be a highly influential scientific assessment like the 2014 National Climate Assessment (NCA) and contain global change information that will be transparent and traceable enabling reasonable reproducibility. The Global Change Information System (GCIS) was created by the USGCRP to provide specialists and the general public with accessible and usable global change information. An open-source web-based resource, GCIS provides human and programmable interfaces, relational and semantic representations of information, and discrete identifiers for various resources. GCIS's capabilities demonstrated with the release of the NCA have been extended to support a set of USGCRP Global Change Indicators and will soon support the 2016 release of the Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health: A Scientific Assessment. When the SOCCR-2 is released, GCIS will serve as a scalable backend for the report's web based version. GCIS will provide named sources and contacts for figures, images and data sources, with the provenance continuing to the platforms and instruments on which the report was based. By building on information from these previous activities, provenance information stored in GCIS will be a key factor in SOCCR-2's transparency and traceability.

  1. Defining Health Diplomacy: Changing Demands in the Era of Globalization

    PubMed Central

    Katz, Rebecca; Kornblet, Sarah; Arnold, Grace; Lief, Eric; Fischer, Julie E

    2011-01-01

    Context: Accelerated globalization has produced obvious changes in diplomatic purposes and practices. Health issues have become increasingly preeminent in the evolving global diplomacy agenda. More leaders in academia and policy are thinking about how to structure and utilize diplomacy in pursuit of global health goals. Methods: In this article, we describe the context, practice, and components of global health diplomacy, as applied operationally. We examine the foundations of various approaches to global health diplomacy, along with their implications for the policies shaping the international public health and foreign policy environments. Based on these observations, we propose a taxonomy for the subdiscipline. Findings: Expanding demands on global health diplomacy require a delicate combination of technical expertise, legal knowledge, and diplomatic skills that have not been systematically cultivated among either foreign service or global health professionals. Nonetheless, high expectations that global health initiatives will achieve development and diplomatic goals beyond the immediate technical objectives may be thwarted by this gap. Conclusions: The deepening links between health and foreign policy require both the diplomatic and global health communities to reexamine the skills, comprehension, and resources necessary to achieve their mutual objectives. PMID:21933277

  2. Visualization of the chains of risks under global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yokohata, T.; Nishina, K.; Takahashi, K.; Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Sueyoshi, T.; Yoshimori, M.; Iwase, K.; Yamamoto, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Honda, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Masaki, Y.; Ito, A.; Iizumi, T.; Sakurai, G.; Okada, M.; Emori, S.; Oki, T.

    2014-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change possibly causes various impacts on human society and ecosystem. Here, we call possible damages or benefits caused by the future climate change as "climate risks". Many climate risks are closely interconnected with each other by direct cause-effect relationship. In this study, the major climate risks are comprehensively summarized based on the survey of studies in the literature using IPCC AR5 etc, and their cause-effect relationship are visualized by a "network diagram". This research is conducted by the collaboration between the experts of various fields, such as water, energy, agriculture, health, society, and eco-system under the project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society). First, the climate risks are classified into 9 categories (water, energy, food, health, disaster, industry, society, ecosystem, and tipping elements). Second, researchers of these fields in our project survey the research articles, and pick up items of climate risks, and possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items. A long list of the climate risks is summarized into ~130, and that of possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items is summarized into ~300, because the network diagram would be illegible if the number of the risk items and cause-effect relationship is too large. Here, we only consider the risks that could occur if climate mitigation policies are not conducted. Finally, the chain of climate risks is visualized by creating a "network diagram" based on a network graph theory (Fruchtman & Reingold algorithm). Through the analysis of network diagram, we find that climate risks at various sectors are closely related. For example, the decrease in the precipitation under the global climate change possibly causes the decrease in river runoff and the decrease in soil moisture, which causes the changes in crop production. The changes in crop production can have an impact on society by

  3. Tropical forests and global change: filling knowledge gaps.

    PubMed

    Zuidema, Pieter A; Baker, Patrick J; Groenendijk, Peter; Schippers, Peter; van der Sleen, Peter; Vlam, Mart; Sterck, Frank

    2013-08-01

    Tropical forests will experience major changes in environmental conditions this century. Understanding their responses to such changes is crucial to predicting global carbon cycling. Important knowledge gaps exist: the causes of recent changes in tropical forest dynamics remain unclear and the responses of entire tropical trees to environmental changes are poorly understood. In this Opinion article, we argue that filling these knowledge gaps requires a new research strategy, one that focuses on trees instead of leaves or communities, on long-term instead of short-term changes, and on understanding mechanisms instead of documenting changes. We propose the use of tree-ring analyses, stable-isotope analyses, manipulative field experiments, and well-validated simulation models to improve predictions of forest responses to global change.

  4. The effects of variable biome distribution on global climate

    SciTech Connect

    Noever, D.A.; Brittain, A.; Matsos, H.C.; Baskaran, S.; Obenhuber, D.

    1996-12-31

    In projecting climatic adjustments to anthropogenically elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, most global climate models fix biome distribution to current geographic conditions. The authors develop a model that examines the albedo-related effects of biome distribution on global temperature. The model was tested on historical biome changes since 1860 and the results fit both the observed trend and order of magnitude change in global temperature. Once backtested in this way on historical data, the model is then used to generate an optimized future biome distribution which minimizes projected greenhouse effects on global temperature. Because of the complexity of this combinatorial search an artificial intelligence method, the genetic algorithm, was employed. The genetic algorithm assigns various biome distributions to the planet, then adjusts their percentage area and albedo effects to regulate or moderate temperature changes.

  5. Climate Cases: Learning about Student Conceptualizations of Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tierney, Benjamin P.

    2013-01-01

    The complex topic of global climate change continues to be a challenging yet important topic among science educators and researchers. This mixed methods study adds to the growing research by investigating student conceptions of climate change from a system theory perspective (Von Bertalanffy, 1968) by asking the question, "How do differences…

  6. A Tale of Two Minds: Psychology and Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Howard, George S.

    2010-01-01

    The American Psychological Association recently released its Presidential Task Force report on Psychology and Global Climate Change. Its principles and proposals would inaugurate a long and productive program of psychological research on climate change. But is it too little, too late? Climatologists have been growing progressively gloomier over…

  7. New global change research effort launched in Latin America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McClain, Michael E.; Galarraga, Remigio H.

    Latin America's mountains extend in a nearly unbroken chain from Mexico to Chile and reach elevations above 6000 m.The valleys of these mountains have seen the evolution of diverse and unique ecosystems, as well as the development of several of the region's most celebrated pre-Columbian civilizations.Today these same valleys contain some of Earth's most rapidly changing landscapes, as urban and agricultural frontiers expand and historical land use changes in response to new pressures from economic globalization.These valleys also face poorly understood threats linked to global climate change.

  8. Global climate change and the evolutionary ecology of ecosystem functioning.

    PubMed

    Schmitz, Oswald J

    2013-09-01

    Environmental warming due to global climate change is an important stressor that stands to alter organismal physiology and, ultimately, carbon cycling in ecosystems. Yet the theoretical framework for predicting warming effects on whole-ecosystem carbon balance by way of changes in organismal physiology remains rudimentary. This is because ecosystem science has yet to embrace principles of evolutionary ecology that offer the means to explain how environmental stress on organisms mediates ecosystem carbon dynamics. Here, using selected case studies and a theoretical model, I sketch out one framework that shows how increases in animal metabolic rates in response to thermal stress lead to phenotypically plastic shifts in animal elemental demand, from nitrogen-rich proteins that support production to carbon-rich soluble carbohydrates that support elevated energy demands. I further show how such a switch in resource selection alters the fate of carbon between atmospheric versus animal, plant, and soil pools. The framework shows that animals, despite having relatively low biomass representation in ecosystems, can nonetheless have disproportionately larger effects on carbon cycling in ecosystems whose effects are exacerbated by environmental stressors like climate warming.

  9. Carbon-, nitrogen- and water-fluxes of agricultural landuse types in the Upper Danube catchment under global change: integrating natural and agroeconomic effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reichenau, Tim G.; Klar, Christian W.; Fiener, Peter; Schneider, Karl

    2010-05-01

    Climate change will not only modify water, carbon and nitrogen fluxes of agricultural ecosystems as a result of the direct impact of climate parameters. The adaption of farming practices (e.g. time of management activities, selection of crops) will also affect theses fluxes. An important driver for changes in agricultural management is the improvement of economical viability which requires both the optimization of the spatial distribution of crops over arable land and the adjustment of cultivation procedures. Thus, investigating climate change effects for agricultural land use types requires that both, direct natural and indirect anthropogenic effects, must be accounted for. The model assembly 'agriculture' within the DANUBIA decision support system has been designed to assess interactions between environmental and anthropogenic effects of climate change. It consists of dynamically interacting models describing plant growth, soil nitrogen transformation, water- and energy-fluxes. In addition, a farm-actor model simulating management activities and economic decisions concerning agricultural land use is coupled to the environmental models. Thus the model assembly 'agriculture' allows for the analysis of environmental and agro-economic effects as well as for the feedbacks between these effects. In this study changes in transpiration, biomass production and nitrogen uptake for two different agro-political scenarios area analyzed: a 'baseline' scenario assuming unchanged agropolitics and a 'performance' scenario, where the payment of agricultural subsidies ends in 2015. Two exemplarily districts with contrasting agricultural land use were examined. Dingolfing in the northeastern part of the Upper Danube catchment is dominated by arable land, whereas in Ostallgäu in the southwest region of the catchment grassland prevails. The model was run for the period 2011 till 2058 assuming a climate scenario based on the IPPC A1B emission scenario. Ten year averages for the

  10. Global Climate Change and the Wildlands of Montana: Promoting Scientific Understanding for K-12 Educators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graumlich, L. J.; Simonsen, L. M.

    2004-12-01

    change on ecosystems because they are relatively free of other human disturbance; they are, in essence, a laboratory for climate change detection. 2) It is unlikely that future global climate change will result in a simple, uniform change in climate. Rather global climate change will result in distinctive spatial and temporal patterns of change coupled with equally distinctive patterns of species response (i.e., a fingerprint response). In this paper, we report on K-12 teachers' pre-conceptions and misconceptions regarding global climate change and wildlands and the effectiveness of the workshop in altering misconceptions. We will also report on ongoing efforts by the teachers to incorporate global climate change into their current curriculum.

  11. Effects of Global Warming on Vibrio Ecology.

    PubMed

    Vezzulli, Luigi; Pezzati, Elisabetta; Brettar, Ingrid; Höfle, Manfred; Pruzzo, Carla

    2015-06-01

    Vibrio-related infections are increasing worldwide both in humans and aquatic animals. Rise in global sea surface temperature (SST), which is approximately 1 °C higher now than 140 years ago and is one of the primary physical impacts of global warming, has been linked to such increases. In this chapter, major known effects of increasing SST on the biology and ecology of vibrios are described. They include the effects on bacterial growth rate, both in the field and in laboratory, culturability, expression of pathogenicity traits, and interactions with aquatic organisms and abiotic surfaces. Special emphasis is given to the effect of ocean warming on Vibrio interactions with zooplankters, which represent one of the most important aquatic reservoirs for these bacteria. The reported findings highlight the biocomplexity of the interactions between vibrios and their natural environment in a climate change scenario, posing the need for interdisciplinary studies to properly understand the connection between ocean warming and persistence and spread of vibrios in sea waters and the epidemiology of the diseases they cause.

  12. Food security in the context of global environmental change

    SciTech Connect

    Rosenberg, N.J.

    1993-11-01

    United Nations predictions and other sources indicate that world population could grow to 8.5 billion by 2025 (Keyfitz 1989) and 11 billion by the end of the coming century (UNFPA 1990). As new information becomes available on the effectiveness of population control programs, the rise of virulent diseases and other factors, these numbers change--sometimes smaller, sometimes larger still. Whatever the numbers actually turn out to be, global agricultural production will have to increase several-fold from present levels to feed and clothe the growing population and to improve worldwide standards of nutrition. The capacity of global agriculture to ensure food security through increased and sustained agricultural production depends on our ability to manage, conserve and in some cases increase the resource base available to the industry of agriculture. The resources that underpin agriculture are land, water and genetic diversity. The first two of these are the subject of this paper. Genetic diversity is the subject of another paper in this volume.

  13. Malaria and global change: Insights, uncertainties and possible surprises

    SciTech Connect

    Martin, P.H.; Steel, A.

    1996-12-31

    Malaria may change with global change. Indeed, global change may affect malaria risk and malaria epidemiology. Malaria risk may change in response to a greenhouse warming; malaria epidemiology, in response to the social, economic, and political developments which a greenhouse warming may trigger. To date, malaria receptivity and epidemiology futures have been explored within the context of equilibrium studies. Equilibrium studies of climate change postulate an equilibrium present climate (the starting point) and a doubled-carbon dioxide climate (the end point), simulate conditions in both instances, and compare the two. What happens while climate changes, i.e., between the starting point and the end point, is ignored. The present paper focuses on malaria receptivity and addresses what equilibrium studies miss, namely transient malaria dynamics.

  14. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #10: MULTIAGENCY, MULTINATIONAL GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH EFFORT IN THE UPPER SAN PEDRO BASIN

    EPA Science Inventory

    This edition reports on a multiagency, multinational global-change research effort that seeks to evaluate the consequences of natural and human-induced changes in semi-arid environments. The Semi-Arid Land-Surface-Atmosphere Program ("SALSA") is focused on the environmentally sen...

  15. Mission to Planet Earth: A program to understand global environmental change

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-02-01

    A description of Mission to Planet Earth, a program to understand global environmental change, is presented. Topics discussed include: changes in the environment; global warming; ozone depletion; deforestation; and NASA's role in global change research.

  16. Mission to Planet Earth: A program to understand global environmental change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1994-01-01

    A description of Mission to Planet Earth, a program to understand global environmental change, is presented. Topics discussed include: changes in the environment; global warming; ozone depletion; deforestation; and NASA's role in global change research.

  17. The Intensification of Global and Regional Climate Variability and Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weaver, S. J.

    2015-12-01

    Recent evidence from the IPCC and National Climate Assessment reports indicate that extreme climate events are increasing in many regions of the world. Interestingly, the nature and causes of the changes in extremes may be expressed differently for the global and regional scales, and also amongst climate variables (e.g., precipitation and temperature). For instance, over the last several decades the temperature probability density function on the global scale exhibits a mean shift to the warmer side, as opposed to a change in it's variability. Conversely, the interannual variability of precipitation is intensifying on the regional scale, especially over the U.S. during spring. Although the statistical characteristics of the temperature and precipitation changes may have a varied expression they both contribute to the potential for increases in extreme events. The causes and physical mechanisms for the intensification of mean global temperature and regional precipitation variability are explored using observationally constrained datasets and non-traditional climate model approaches.

  18. Agile Data Management with the Global Change Information System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duggan, B.; Aulenbach, S.; Tilmes, C.; Goldstein, J.

    2013-12-01

    We describe experiences applying agile software development techniques to the realm of data management during the development of the Global Change Information System (GCIS), a web service and API for authoritative global change information under development by the US Global Change Research Program. Some of the challenges during system design and implementation have been : (1) balancing the need for a rigorous mechanism for ensuring information quality with the realities of large data sets whose contents are often in flux, (2) utilizing existing data to inform decisions about the scope and nature of new data, and (3) continuously incorporating new knowledge and concepts into a relational data model. The workflow for managing the content of the system has much in common with the development of the system itself. We examine various aspects of agile software development and discuss whether or how we have been able to use them for data curation as well as software development.

  19. Global Climate Change (GCC) Issues and Their Impacts on the US Army Corps of Engineers

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-11-01

    examined. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGES CLIMATE GREENHOUSE EFFECT 124 CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL WARMING 16. PRICE CODE GLOBAL CIRCULA1ON MODELS 17...THEIR IMPACTS ON THE US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS VIE. iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The greenhouse effect is an issue that has been greatly debated, misunder...stood, and inappropriately blamed for recent extreme weather events. The greenhouse effect by itself cannot explain all the past, present, and predicted

  20. Using Argumentation to Foster Learning about Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Golden, B. W.

    2012-12-01

    Given the complexity of the science involving climate change (IPCC, 2007), its lack of curricular focus within US K-12 schooling (Golden, 2009), and the difficulty in effecting conceptual change in science (Vosniadou, 2007), we sought to research middle school students' conceptions about climate change, in addition to how those conceptions changed during and as a result of a deliberately designed global climate change (GCC) unit. In a sixth grade classroom, a unit was designed which incorporated Argumentation-Driven Inquiry (Sampson & Grooms, 2010). That is, students were assigned to groups and asked to make sense of standard GCC data such as paleoclimate data from ice cores, direct temperature measurement, and Keeling curves, in addition to learning about the greenhouse effect in a modeling lesson (Hocking, et al, 1993). The students were then challenged, in groups, to create, on whiteboards, explanations and defend these explanations to and with their peers. They did two iterations of this argumentation. The first iteration focused on the simple identification of climate change patterns. The second focused on developing causal explanations for those patterns. After two rounds of such argumentation, the students were then asked to write (individually) a "final" argument which accounted for the given data. Interview and written data were analyzed prior to the given unit, during it, and after it, in order to capture complicated nuance that might escape detection by simpler research means such as surveys. Several findings emerged which promised to be of interest to climate change educators. The first is that many students tended to "know" many "facts" about climate change, but were unable to connect these disparate facts in any meaningful ways. A second finding is that while no students changed their entire belief systems, even after a robust unit which would seemingly challenge such, each student engaged did indeed modify the manner in which they discussed the

  1. Global climate change: A strategic issue facing Illinois

    SciTech Connect

    Womeldorff, P.J.

    1995-12-31

    This paper discusses global climate change, summarizes activities related to climate change, and identifies possible outcomes of the current debate on the subject. Aspects of climate change related to economic issues are very briefly summarized; it is suggested that the end result will be a change in lifestyle in developed countries. International activities, with an emphasis on the Framework Convention on Climate Change, and U.S. activities are outlined. It is recommended that the minimum action required is to work to understand the issue and prepare for possible action.

  2. Providing Context for Complexity: Using Infographics and Conceptual Models to Teach Global Change Processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bean, J. R.; White, L. D.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding modern and historical global changes requires interdisciplinary knowledge of the physical and life sciences. The Understanding Global Change website from the UC Museum of Paleontology will use a focal infographic that unifies diverse content often taught in separate K-12 science units. This visualization tool provides scientists with a structure for presenting research within the broad context of global change, and supports educators with a framework for teaching and assessing student understanding of complex global change processes. This new approach to teaching the science of global change is currently being piloted and refined based on feedback from educators and scientists in anticipation of a 2016 website launch. Global change concepts are categorized within the infographic as causes of global change (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, volcanism), ongoing Earth system processes (e.g., ocean circulation, the greenhouse effect), and the changes scientists measure in Earth's physical and biological systems (e.g., temperature, extinctions/radiations). The infographic will appear on all website content pages and provides a template for the creation of flowcharts, which are conceptual models that allow teachers and students to visualize the interdependencies and feedbacks among processes in the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and geosphere. The development of this resource is timely given that the newly adopted Next Generation Science Standards emphasize cross-cutting concepts, including model building, and Earth system science. Flowchart activities will be available on the website to scaffold inquiry-based lessons, determine student preconceptions, and assess student content knowledge. The infographic has already served as a learning and evaluation tool during professional development workshops at UC Berkeley, Stanford University, and the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History. At these workshops, scientists and educators used the infographic

  3. Evolutionary responses to global change: lessons from invasive species.

    PubMed

    Moran, Emily V; Alexander, Jake M

    2014-05-01

    Biologists have recently devoted increasing attention to the role of rapid evolution in species' responses to environmental change. However, it is still unclear what evolutionary responses should be expected, at what rates, and whether evolution will save populations at risk of extinction. The potential of biological invasions to provide useful insights has barely been realised, despite the close analogies to species responding to global change, particularly climate change; in both cases, populations encounter novel climatic and biotic selection pressures, with expected evolutionary responses occurring over similar timescales. However, the analogy is not perfect, and invasive species are perhaps best used as an upper bound on expected change. In this article, we review what invasive species can and cannot teach us about likely evolutionary responses to global change and the constraints on those responses. We also discuss the limitations of invasive species as a model and outline directions for future research.

  4. Migration and global environmental change: methodological lessons from mountain areas of the global South

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milan, A.; Gioli, G.; Afifi, T.

    2015-06-01

    The relationship between migration and environmental and climatic changes is a crucial yet understudied factor influencing mountain livelihoods in the global South. These livelihoods are often characterized by high prevalence of family farming, widespread dependence on natural resources, and high sensitivity to climatic changes. Except for a limited number of empirical case studies, the literature on migration and global environmental change has not yet moved beyond case study results to address and explain global patterns and specificities of migration in mountain areas of the global South. After an introduction to the topic, the authors present a new synthesis of three field studies combining household surveys, participatory research approach (PRA) tools and key informant interviews in Pakistan, Peru, and Tanzania. This article suggests that the systematic use of transdisciplinary approaches, with a combination of quantitative and qualitative empirical methods, is the key to understanding global migration patterns in rural mountain areas of the global South. The results of our synthesis suggests that survey data should be triangulated with PRA results as well as secondary data in order to build household profiles connecting vulnerability (measured through a multidimensional index) with human mobility patterns. Such profiles can be conducive to better understand the feedback processes between livelihoods and mobility patterns both within each case study and across case studies, helping researchers to draw general lessons.

  5. Migration and global environmental change: methodological lessons from mountain areas of the global South

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milan, A.; Gioli, G.; Afifi, T.

    2014-12-01

    The relationship between migration and environmental and climatic changes is a crucial yet understudied factor influencing mountain livelihoods in the global South. These livelihoods are often characterized by high prevalence of family farming, widespread dependence on natural resources and high sensitivity to climatic changes. Except for a limited number of empirical case studies, the literature on migration and global environmental change has not yet moved beyond case study results to address and explain global patterns and specificities of migration in mountain areas of the global South. After an introduction to the topic, the authors present their empirical approach combining household surveys, Participatory Research Approach (PRA) tools and key informant interviews through its application in three case studies in Pakistan, Peru and Tanzania. This article suggests that the systematic use of transdisciplinary approaches, with a combination of quantitative and qualitative empirical methods, is the key to understanding global migration patterns in rural mountain areas of the global South. In the future, survey data should be triangulated with PRA results as well as secondary data in order to build household profiles connecting vulnerability (measured through a multidimensional index) with human mobility patterns. Such profiles can be conducive to better understand the feedback processes between livelihoods and mobility patterns both within each case study and across case studies, helping researchers to draw general lessons.

  6. European network infrastructures of observatories for terrestrial Global Change research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vereecken, H.; Bogena, H.; Lehning, M.

    2009-04-01

    hydrological system changes, and to develop and implement tools and technologies for monitoring, prevention and mitigation of environmental risks and pressures. In addition, NOHA will provide long-term statistical series of hydrological state variables and fluxes for the analysis and prognosis of Global Change consequences using integrated model systems. These data will support the development and establishment of efficient prevention, mitigation and adaptation strategies (E.g. EU-Water Framework Directive) and spur the development and validation of hydrological theories and models. The second network, ALPS, - the Alpine Observing System - will create an unique infrastructure for environmental and climate research and observation for the whole Alpine region, providing a common platform for the benefit of the society in Europe as a whole. The initiative will build on existing infrastructure in the participating countries and on new and emerging technology, allowing an unprecedented coverage of observation systems at affordable cost. ALPS will create a new collaboration between scientists, engineers, monitoring agencies, public and decision makers, with the aim to gain an integrated understanding of complex environmental systems. The ALPS effort will be structured along three major axes: (i) harmonize and strengthen the backbone of permanent measurement infrastructures and complement these with dense deployments of intelligent networks, to improve the recording of environmental parameters overcoming disciplinary and national borders, (ii) link the main data centres to create a distributed cyber-infrastructure with the final aim to enable effective data access and retrieval to all science and society users, and (iii) invest in data assimilation and exploitation toward scientific and practical results in particular with respect to dealing with extreme events and natural hazards. In this presentation, we will focus on the motivation, the concept and the scientific and

  7. The U.S. Global Change Research Program

    SciTech Connect

    MacCracken, M.C.

    1994-05-04

    The Office of Science and Technology Policy has established the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) to help solve problems, to improve economic competitiveness, and to provide stimulus for education. Within the NSTC, the Committee on Environment and Natural Resources Research is responsible for seven environmental issues, including all research relating to global change. The US Global Change Research Program supports international protocols and conventions relating to ozone, climate, and biodiversity. It contributes to the advancement of knowledge in science, education, and technology transfer by providing scientific understanding for policy. This program supports the mission of federal agencies in the areas of forecasts, regulations, services, etc.

  8. The evolution of global disaster risk assessments: from hazard to global change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2013-04-01

    The perception of disaster risk as a dynamic process interlinked with global change is a fairly recent concept. It gradually emerged as an evolution from new scientific theories, currents of thinking and lessons learned from large disasters since the 1970s. The interest was further heighten, in the mid-1980s, by the Chernobyl nuclear accident and the discovery of the ozone layer hole, both bringing awareness that dangerous hazards can generate global impacts. The creation of the UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) and the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990 reinforced the interest for global risk assessment. First global risk models including hazard, exposure and vulnerability components were available since mid-2000s. Since then increased computation power and more refined datasets resolution, led to more numerous and sophisticated global risk models. This article presents a recent history of global disaster risk models, the current status of researches for the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR 2013) and future challenges and limitations for the development of next generation global disaster risk models.

  9. Urban Growth as a Component of Global Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, A.; Friedl, M. A.; Woodcock, C. E.

    2003-12-01

    Urban populations have exploded in the last three decades, with nearly 50 percent (3 billion) of the Earth's inhabitants currently living in cities (UN 2000). Further, while urban land cover accounts for less than two percent of the Earth's land area, this proportion is growing rapidly as more cities expand into natural ecosystems and agricultural areas. The amount and rate of this land conversion affects local and regional ecosystems, climate, biogeochemistry, as well as food production. While monitoring and understanding of land use/cover change has improved dramatically in the arenas of forests, grasslands, and agriculture, more attention must be paid to the form and extent of urbanization as a key land transformation process. To address this issue, this research involves two objectives: 1) to map and monitor urban areas globally using coarse resolution data, and 2) to understand urban growth and its drivers during the last decade at regional to local scales, in a cross section of global cities. The first objective is to improve understanding of the methodological requirements for mapping urban land cover over large areas from coarse resolution remotely sensed data. Circulation models will soon include urban information in their parameterization of global land cover (G. Bonan, pers. comm.), however, no complete, updated map of global cities exists. Of the commonly used surrogate data sources, the Digital Chart of the World urban data (Danko 1992) is outdated, while the nighttime lights data (Elvidge et al. 1999) overestimates cities due to ``blooming'' effects. To meet this need, a technique called boosting is used to improve supervised classification accuracy and provides a means to integrate Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data with prior information derived from ancillary sources. Results indicate that fusion of data types improves urban classification results by resolving confusion between urban and other classes that occurs when any of

  10. Optimisation explains global leaf trait patterns and plant adaptations to global change (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dewar, R. C.; McMurtrie, R. E.

    2009-12-01

    Measured values of four key leaf traits (leaf area per unit mass, nitrogen concentration, photosynthetic rate and leaf lifespan) co-vary globally according to relationships that hold across all the world’s terrestrial plants. The same leaf traits respond consistently to altered environmental conditions (e.g. light intensity, carbon dioxide concentration and nitrogen supply). Explaining observed global leaf trait patterns and leaf responses to environmental change is a prerequisite to understanding and predicting vegetation responses to global change more generally across a range of time scales. Recently [1] we have shown, using a simple model of plant carbon-nitrogen economy, that all of these leaf trait patterns and responses are consistent with an optimisation hypothesis that cumulative carbon export from leaves over their lifespan is maximised. Various closely-related optimisation hypotheses also explain other plant adaptations to environmental change, such as stomatal responses and altered patterns of growth allocation [2]. Incorporating plant optimisation into large scale vegetation-atmosphere models would ensure they are consistent with global leaf trait relationships, and would improve predictions of vegetation responses to global change. The challenge, both scientific and operational, is to do this consistently over a wide range of time scales. This talk will review our recent work using plant optimisation models [1,2] and highlight the potential of Maximum Entropy Production as a unifying optimisation principle for plant and ecosystem function across different time scales [3]. [1] McMurtrie RE, Dewar RC. 2009. Global variation of leaf traits explained from an hypothesis of optimal plant function. Manuscript in preparation. [2] Dewar RC, Franklin O, Makela A, McMurtrie RE, Valentine HT. 2009. Optimal function explains forest responses to global change. BioScience 59:127-139. [3] Dewar RC. 2009. Maximum entropy production and plants. Submitted to Phil

  11. Delivering Global Environmental Change Science Through Documentary Film

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dodgson, K.; Byrne, J. M.; Graham, J. R.

    2010-12-01

    Communicating authentic science to society presents a significant challenge to researchers. This challenge stems from unfortunate misrepresentation and misunderstanding in the mainstream media, particularly in relation to science on global environmental change. This has resulted in a lower level of confidence and interest amongst audiences in regards to global environmental change and anthropogenic climate change discussions. This project describes a new form of documentary film that aspires to break this trend and increase audiences’ interest, reinvigorating discussion about global environmental change. The documentary film adopts a form that marries traditional scientific presentation with the high entertainment value of narrative storytelling. This format maintains the authenticity of the scientific message and ensures audience engagement throughout the entire presentation due to the fact that a sense of equality and intimacy between the audience and the scientists is achieved. The film features interviews with scientists studying global environmental change and opens with a comparison of authentic scientific information and the mainstream media’s presentation, and subsequent public opinion. This enables an analysis of the growing disconnect between society and the scientific community. Topics investigated include: Arctic ice melt, coastal zone hypoxia, tropical cyclones and acidification. Upon completion of the film, public and private screenings with predetermined audience demographics will be conducted using a short, standardized survey to gain feedback regarding the audience’s overall review of the presentation. In addition to the poster, this presentation features an extended trailer for the documentary film.

  12. Provenance Representation in the Global Change Information System (GCIS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tilmes, Curt

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change is a topic that has become very controversial despite strong support within the scientific community. It is common for agencies releasing information about climate change to be served with Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests for everything that led to that conclusion. Capturing and presenting the provenance, linking to the research papers, data sets, models, analyses, observation instruments and satellites, etc. supporting key findings has the potential to mitigate skepticism in this domain. The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is now coordinating the production of a National Climate Assessment (NCA) that presents our best understanding of global change. We are now developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will present the content of that report and its provenance, including the scientific support for the findings of the assessment. We are using an approach that will present this information both through a human accessible web site as well as a machine readable interface for automated mining of the provenance graph. We plan to use the developing W3C PROV Data Model and Ontology for this system.

  13. Future generations, environmental ethics, and global environmental change

    SciTech Connect

    Tonn, B.E.

    1994-12-31

    The elements of a methodology to be employed by the global community to investigate the consequences of global environmental change upon future generations and global ecosystems are outlined in this paper. The methodology is comprised of two major components: A possible future worlds model; and a formal, citizen-oriented process to judge whether the possible future worlds potentially inheritable by future generations meet obligational standards. A broad array of descriptors of future worlds can be encompassed within this framework, including survival of ecosystems and other species and satisfaction of human concerns. The methodology expresses fundamental psychological motivations and human myths journey, renewal, mother earth, and being-in-nature-and incorporates several viewpoints on obligations to future generations-maintaining options, fairness, humility, and the cause of humanity. The methodology overcomes several severe drawbacks of the economic-based methods most commonly used for global environmental policy analysis.

  14. Global mean sea level - Indicator of climate change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robock, A.; Hansen, J.; Gornitz, V.; Lebedeff, S.; Moore, E.; Etkins, R.; Epstein, E.

    1983-01-01

    A critical discussion is presented on the use by Etkins and Epstein (1982) of combined surface air temperature and sea level time series to draw conclusions concerning the discharge of the polar ice sheets. It is objected by Robock that they used Northern Hemisphere land surface air temperature records which are unrepresentative of global sea surface temperature, and he suggests that externally imposed volcanic dust and CO2 forcings can adequately account for observed temperature changes over the last century, with global sea level changing in passive response to sea change as a result of thermal expansion. Hansen et al. adduce evidence for global cooling due to ice discharge that has not exceeded a few hundredths of a degree centigrade in the last century, precluding any importance of this phenomenon in the interpretation of global mean temperature trends for this period. Etkins and Epstein reply that since their 1982 report additional evidence has emerged for the hypothesis that the polar ice caps are diminishing. It is reasserted that each of the indices discussed, including global mean sea surface temperature and sea level, polar ice sheet mass balance, water mass characteristics, and the spin rate and axis of rotation displacement of the earth, are physically linked and can be systematically monitored, as is currently being planned under the auspices of the National Climate Program.

  15. Global CALIPSO Observations of Aerosol Changes Near Clouds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Varnai, Tamas; Marshak, Alexander

    2011-01-01

    Several recent studies have found that clouds are surrounded by a transition zone of rapidly changing aerosol optical properties and particle size. Characterizing this transition zone is important for better understanding aerosol-cloud interactions and aerosol radiative effects, and also for improving satellite retrievals of aerosol properties. This letter presents a statistical analysis of a monthlong global data set of Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) lidar observations over oceans. The results show that the transition zone is ubiquitous over all oceans and extends up to 15 km away from clouds. They also show that near-cloud enhancements in backscatter and particle size are strongest at low altitudes, slightly below the top of the nearest clouds. Also, the enhancements are similar near illuminated and shadowy cloud sides, which confirms that the asymmetry of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer reflectances found in an earlier study comes from 3-D radiative processes and not from differences in aerosol properties. Finally, the effects of CALIPSO aerosol detection and cloud identification uncertainties are discussed. The findings underline the importance of accounting for the transition zone to avoid potential biases in studies of satellite aerosol products, aerosol-cloud interactions, and aerosol direct radiative