U.S. GODAE: Global Ocean Prediction with the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-30

major contributors to the strength of the Gulf Stream, (1) the wind forcing, (2) the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and (3) a...convergence and sensitivity studies with North Atlantic circulation models. Part I. The western boundary current system. Ocean Model., 16, 141-159...a baroclinic version of ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC), the latter an unstructured grid model for baroclinic coastal/estuarian applications. NCOM is

Assimilation of TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data into a global ocean circulation model: How good are the results?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukumori, Ichiro; Raghunath, Ramanujam; Fu, Lee-Lueng; Chao, Yi

1999-11-01

The feasibility of assimilating satellite altimetry data into a global ocean general circulation model is studied. Three years of TOPEX/Poseidon data are analyzed using a global, three-dimensional, nonlinear primitive equation model. The assimilation's success is examined by analyzing its consistency and reliability measured by formal error estimates with respect to independent measurements. Improvements in model solution are demonstrated, in particular, properties not directly measured. Comparisons are performed with sea level measured by tide gauges, subsurface temperatures and currents from moorings, and bottom pressure measurements. Model representation errors dictate what can and cannot be resolved by assimilation, and its identification is emphasized.

Large-Scale Ocean Circulation-Cloud Interactions Reduce the Pace of Transient Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trossman, D. S.; Palter, J. B.; Merlis, T. M.; Huang, Y.; Xia, Y.

2016-01-01

Changes to the large scale oceanic circulation are thought to slow the pace of transient climate change due, in part, to their influence on radiative feedbacks. Here we evaluate the interactions between CO2-forced perturbations to the large-scale ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback in a climate model. Both the change of the ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback strongly influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of surface and ocean warming. Changes in the ocean circulation reduce the amount of transient global warming caused by the radiative cloud feedback by helping to maintain low cloud coverage in the face of global warming. The radiative cloud feedback is key in affecting atmospheric meridional heat transport changes and is the dominant radiative feedback mechanism that responds to ocean circulation change. Uncertainty in the simulated ocean circulation changes due to CO2 forcing may contribute a large share of the spread in the radiative cloud feedback among climate models.

Study of Circulation in the Tillamook Bay and the Surrounding Wetland Applying Triple-Nested Models Downscaling from Global Ocean to Estuary

EPA Science Inventory

To study the circulation and water quality in the Tillamook Bay, Oregon, a high-resolution estuarine model that covers the shallow bay and the surrounding wetland has been developed. The estuarine circulation at Tillamook Bay is mainly driven by the tides and the river flows and ...

Three-dimensional turbulence-resolving modeling of the Venusian cloud layer and induced gravity waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lefèvre, Maxence; Spiga, Aymeric; Lebonnois, Sébastien

2017-01-01

The impact of the cloud convective layer of the atmosphere of Venus on the global circulation remains unclear. The recent observations of gravity waves at the top of the cloud by the Venus Express mission provided some answers. These waves are not resolved at the scale of global circulation models (GCM); therefore, we developed an unprecedented 3-D turbulence-resolving large-eddy simulations (LES) Venusian model using the Weather Research and Forecast terrestrial model. The forcing consists of three different heating rates: two radiative ones for solar and infrared and one associated with the adiabatic cooling/warming of the global circulation. The rates are extracted from the Laboratoire de Météorlogie Dynamique Venus GCM using two different cloud models. Thus, we are able to characterize the convection and associated gravity waves in function of latitude and local time. To assess the impact of the global circulation on the convective layer, we used rates from a 1-D radiative-convective model. The resolved layer, taking place between 1.0 × 105 and 3.8 × 104 Pa (48-53 km), is organized as polygonal closed cells of about 10 km wide with vertical wind of several meters per second. The convection emits gravity waves both above and below the convective layer leading to temperature perturbations of several tenths of kelvin with vertical wavelength between 1 and 3 km and horizontal wavelength from 1 to 10 km. The thickness of the convective layer and the amplitudes of waves are consistent with observations, though slightly underestimated. The global dynamics heating greatly modify the convective layer.

Montane ecosystem productivity responds more to global circulation patterns than climatic trends.

PubMed

Desai, A R; Wohlfahrt, G; Zeeman, M J; Katata, G; Eugster, W; Montagnani, L; Gianelle, D; Mauder, M; Schmid, H-P

2016-02-01

Regional ecosystem productivity is highly sensitive to inter-annual climate variability, both within and outside the primary carbon uptake period. However, Earth system models lack sufficient spatial scales and ecosystem processes to resolve how these processes may change in a warming climate. Here, we show, how for the European Alps, mid-latitude Atlantic ocean winter circulation anomalies drive high-altitude summer forest and grassland productivity, through feedbacks among orographic wind circulation patterns, snowfall, winter and spring temperatures, and vegetation activity. Therefore, to understand future global climate change influence to regional ecosystem productivity, Earth systems models need to focus on improvements towards topographic downscaling of changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns and to lagged responses in vegetation dynamics to non-growing season climate anomalies.

Montane ecosystem productivity responds more to global circulation patterns than climatic trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desai, A. R.; Wohlfahrt, G.; Zeeman, M. J.; Katata, G.; Eugster, W.; Montagnani, L.; Gianelle, D.; Mauder, M.; Schmid, H.-P.

2016-02-01

Regional ecosystem productivity is highly sensitive to inter-annual climate variability, both within and outside the primary carbon uptake period. However, Earth system models lack sufficient spatial scales and ecosystem processes to resolve how these processes may change in a warming climate. Here, we show, how for the European Alps, mid-latitude Atlantic ocean winter circulation anomalies drive high-altitude summer forest and grassland productivity, through feedbacks among orographic wind circulation patterns, snowfall, winter and spring temperatures, and vegetation activity. Therefore, to understand future global climate change influence to regional ecosystem productivity, Earth systems models need to focus on improvements towards topographic downscaling of changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns and to lagged responses in vegetation dynamics to non-growing season climate anomalies.

Clouds and the extratropical circulation response to global warming in a hierarchy of global atmosphere models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, A.

2017-12-01

Climate models project that global warming will lead to substantial changes in extratropical jet streams. Yet, many quantitative aspects of warming-induced jet stream changes remain uncertain, and recent work has indicated an important role of clouds and their radiative interactions. Here, I will investigate how cloud-radiative changes impact the zonal-mean extratropical circulation response under global warming using a hierarchy of global atmosphere models. I will first focus on aquaplanet setups with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), which reproduce the model spread found in realistic simulations with interactive SSTs. Simulations with two CMIP5 models MPI-ESM and IPSL-CM5A and prescribed clouds show that half of the circulation response can be attributed to cloud changes. The rise of tropical high-level clouds and the upward and poleward movement of midlatitude high-level clouds lead to poleward jet shifts. High-latitude low-level cloud changes shift the jet poleward in one model but not in the other. The impact of clouds on the jet operates via the atmospheric radiative forcing that is created by the cloud changes and is qualitatively reproduced in a dry Held-Suarez model, although the latter is too sensitive because of its simplified treatment of diabatic processes. I will then show that the aquaplanet results also hold when the models are used in a realistic setup that includes continents and seasonality. I will further juxtapose these prescribed-SST simulations with interactive-SST simulations and show that atmospheric and surface cloud-radiative interactions impact the jet poleward jet shifts in about equal measure. Finally, I will discuss the cloud impact on regional and seasonal circulation changes.

Mid-latitude afforestation shifts general circulation and tropical precipitation.

PubMed

Swann, Abigail L S; Fung, Inez Y; Chiang, John C H

2012-01-17

We show in climate model experiments that large-scale afforestation in northern mid-latitudes warms the Northern Hemisphere and alters global circulation patterns. An expansion of dark forests increases the absorption of solar energy and increases surface temperature, particularly in regions where the land surface is unable to compensate with latent heat flux due to water limitation. Atmospheric circulation redistributes the anomalous energy absorbed in the northern hemisphere, in particular toward the south, through altering the Hadley circulation, resulting in the northward displacement of the tropical rain bands. Precipitation decreases over parts of the Amazon basin affecting productivity and increases over the Sahel and Sahara regions in Africa. We find that the response of climate to afforestation in mid-latitudes is determined by the amount of soil moisture available to plants with the greatest warming found in water-limited regions. Mid-latitude afforestation is found to have a small impact on modeled global temperatures and on global CO(2), but regional heating from the increase in forest cover is capable of driving unintended changes in circulation and precipitation. The ability of vegetation to affect remote circulation has implications for strategies for climate mitigation.

Chapman Conference on the Hydrologic Aspects of Global Climate Change, Lake Chelan, WA, June 12-14, 1990, Selected Papers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lettenmaier, Dennis P. (Editor); Rind, D. (Editor)

1992-01-01

The present conference on the hydrological aspects of global climate change discusses land-surface schemes for future climate models, modeling of the land-surface boundary in climate models as a composite of independent vegetation, a land-surface hydrology parameterizaton with subgrid variability for general circulation models, and conceptual aspects of a statistical-dynamical approach to represent landscape subgrid-scale heterogeneities in atmospheric models. Attention is given to the impact of global warming on river runoff, the influence of atmospheric moisture transport on the fresh water balance of the Atlantic drainage basin, a comparison of observations and model simulations of tropospheric water vapor, and the use of weather types to disaggregate the prediction of general circulation models. Topics addressed include the potential response of an Arctic watershed during a period of global warming and the sensitivity of groundwater recharge estimates to climate variability and change.

Geophysical excitation of LOD/UT1 estimated from the output of the global circulation models of the atmosphere - ERA-40 reanalysis and of the ocean - OMCT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korbacz, A.; Brzeziński, A.; Thomas, M.

2008-04-01

We use new estimates of the global atmospheric and oceanic angular momenta (AAM, OAM) to study the influence on LOD/UT1. The AAM series was calculated from the output fields of the atmospheric general circulation model ERA-40 reanalysis. The OAM series is an outcome of global ocean model OMCT simulation driven by global fields of the atmospheric parameters from the ERA- 40 reanalysis. The excitation data cover the period between 1963 and 2001. Our calculations concern atmospheric and oceanic effects in LOD/UT1 over the periods between 20 days and decades. Results are compared to those derived from the alternative AAM/OAM data sets.

Decline of the marine ecosystem caused by a reduction in the Atlantic overturning circulation.

PubMed

Schmittner, Andreas

2005-03-31

Reorganizations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation were associated with large and abrupt climatic changes in the North Atlantic region during the last glacial period. Projections with climate models suggest that similar reorganizations may also occur in response to anthropogenic global warming. Here I use ensemble simulations with a coupled climate-ecosystem model of intermediate complexity to investigate the possible consequences of such disturbances to the marine ecosystem. In the simulations, a disruption of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation leads to a collapse of the North Atlantic plankton stocks to less than half of their initial biomass, owing to rapid shoaling of winter mixed layers and their associated separation from the deep ocean nutrient reservoir. Globally integrated export production declines by more than 20 per cent owing to reduced upwelling of nutrient-rich deep water and gradual depletion of upper ocean nutrient concentrations. These model results are consistent with the available high-resolution palaeorecord, and suggest that global ocean productivity is sensitive to changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

Mars Pathfinder meteorological observations on the basis of results of an atmospheric global circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forget, Francois; Hourdin, F.; Talagrand, O.

1994-01-01

The Mars Pathfinder Meteorological Package (ASI/MET) will measure the local pressure, temperature, and winds at its future landing site, somewhere between the latitudes 0 deg N and 30 deg N. Comparable measurements have already been obtained at the surface of Mars by the Viking Landers at 22 deg N (VL1) and 48 deg N (VL2), providing much useful information on the martian atmosphere. In particular the pressure measurements contain very instructive information on the global atmospheric circulation. At the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD), we have analyzed and simulated these measurements with a martian atmospheric global circulation model (GCM), which was the first to simulate the martian atmospheric circulation over more than 1 year. The model is able to reproduce rather accurately many observed features of the martian atmosphere, including the long- and short-period oscillations of the surface pressure observed by the Viking landers. From a meteorological point of view, we think that a landing site located near or at the equator would be an interesting choice.

3D Visualization of Global Ocean Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, V. G.; Sharma, R.; Zhang, E.; Schmittner, A.; Jenny, B.

2015-12-01

Advanced 3D visualization techniques are seldom used to explore the dynamic behavior of ocean circulation. Streamlines are an effective method for visualization of flow, and they can be designed to clearly show the dynamic behavior of a fluidic system. We employ vector field editing and extraction software to examine the topology of velocity vector fields generated by a 3D global circulation model coupled to a one-layer atmosphere model simulating preindustrial and last glacial maximum (LGM) conditions. This results in a streamline-based visualization along multiple density isosurfaces on which we visualize points of vertical exchange and the distribution of properties such as temperature and biogeochemical tracers. Previous work involving this model examined the change in the energetics driving overturning circulation and mixing between simulations of LGM and preindustrial conditions. This visualization elucidates the relationship between locations of vertical exchange and mixing, as well as demonstrates the effects of circulation and mixing on the distribution of tracers such as carbon isotopes.

Identifying a key physical factor sensitive to the performance of Madden-Julian oscillation simulation in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Go-Un; Seo, Kyong-Hwan

2018-01-01

A key physical factor in regulating the performance of Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) simulation is examined by using 26 climate model simulations from the World Meteorological Organization's Working Group for Numerical Experimentation/Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Atmospheric System Study (WGNE and MJO-Task Force/GASS) global model comparison project. For this, intraseasonal moisture budget equation is analyzed and a simple, efficient physical quantity is developed. The result shows that MJO skill is most sensitive to vertically integrated intraseasonal zonal wind convergence (ZC). In particular, a specific threshold value of the strength of the ZC can be used as distinguishing between good and poor models. An additional finding is that good models exhibit the correct simultaneous convection and large-scale circulation phase relationship. In poor models, however, the peak circulation response appears 3 days after peak rainfall, suggesting unfavorable coupling between convection and circulation. For an improving simulation of the MJO in climate models, we propose that this delay of circulation in response to convection needs to be corrected in the cumulus parameterization scheme.

Three-dimensional turbulence-resolving modeling of the Venusian cloud layer and induced gravity waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lefèvre, Maxence; Spiga, Aymeric; Lebonnois, Sébastien

2017-04-01

The impact of the cloud convective layer of the atmosphere of Venus on the global circulation remains unclear. The recent observations of gravity waves at the top of the cloud by the Venus Express mission provided some answers. These waves are not resolved at the scale of global circulation models (GCM), therefore we developed an unprecedented 3D turbulence-resolving Large-Eddy Simulations (LES) Venusian model (Lefèvre et al, 2016 JGR Planets) using the Weather Research and Forecast terrestrial model. The forcing consists of three different heating rates : two radiative ones for solar and infrared and one associated with the adiabatic cooling/warming of the global circulation. The rates are extracted from the Laboratoire de Météorlogie Dynamique (LMD) Venus GCM using two different cloud models. Thus we are able to characterize the convection and associated gravity waves in function of latitude and local time. To assess the impact of the global circulation on the convective layer, we used rates from a 1D radiative-convective model. The resolved layer, taking place between 1.0 105 and 3.8 104 Pa (48-53 km), is organized as polygonal closed cells of about 10 km wide with vertical wind of several meters per second. The convection emits gravity waves both above and below the convective layer leading to temperature perturbations of several tenths of Kelvin with vertical wavelength between 1 and 3 km and horizontal wavelength from 1 to 10 km. The thickness of the convective layer and the amplitudes of waves are consistent with observations, though slightly underestimated. The global dynamics heating greatly modify the convective layer.

Towards the impact of eddies on the response of the global ocean circulation to Southern Ocean gateway opening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viebahn, Jan; von der Heydt, Anna S.; Dijkstra, Henk A.

2014-05-01

During the past 65 Million (Ma) years, Earth's climate has undergone a major change from warm 'greenhouse' to colder 'icehouse' conditions with extensive ice sheets in the polar regions of both hemispheres. The Eocene-Oligocene (~34 Ma) and Oligocene-Miocene (~23 Ma) boundaries reflect major transitions in Cenozoic global climate change. Proposed mechanisms of these transitions include reorganization of ocean circulation due to critical gateway opening/deepening, changes in atmospheric CO2-concentration, and feedback mechanisms related to land-ice formation. A long-standing hypothesis is that the formation of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current due to opening/deepening of Southern Ocean gateways led to glaciation of the Antarctic continent. However, while this hypothesis remains controversial, its assessment via coupled climate model simulations depends crucially on the spatial resolution in the ocean component. More precisely, only high-resolution modeling of the turbulent ocean circulation is capable of adequately describing reorganizations in the ocean flow field and related changes in turbulent heat transport. In this study, for the first time results of a high-resolution (0.1° horizontally) realistic global ocean model simulation with a closed Drake Passage are presented. Changes in global ocean temperatures, heat transport, and ocean circulation (e.g., Meridional Overturning Circulation and Antarctic Coastal Current) are established by comparison with an open Drake Passage high-resolution reference simulation. Finally, corresponding low-resolution simulations are also analyzed. The results highlight the essential impact of the ocean eddy field in palaeoclimatic change.

Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crane, Robert G.; Hewitson, Bruce

1990-01-01

Model simulations of global climate change are seen as an essential component of any program aimed at understanding human impact on the global environment. A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs), however, is their inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global scale change, and it is these regional scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human/environmental response. This research is directed toward the development of a methodology for the validation of the synoptic scale climatology of GCMs. This is developed with regard to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM Model 2, with the specific objective of using the synoptic circulation form a doubles CO2 simulation to estimate regional climate change over North America, south of Hudson Bay. This progress report is specifically concerned with validating the synoptic climatology of the GISS GCM, and developing the transfer function to derive grid-point temperatures from the synoptic circulation. Principal Components Analysis is used to characterize the primary modes of the spatial and temporal variability in the observed and simulated climate, and the model validation is based on correlations between component loadings, and power spectral analysis of the component scores. The results show that the high resolution GISS model does an excellent job of simulating the synoptic circulation over the U.S., and that grid-point temperatures can be predicted with reasonable accuracy from the circulation patterns.

Impact of Data Assimilation And Resolution On Modeling The Gulf Stream Pathway

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-18

currents could be generated by either the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) associated with the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) or by...abyssal gyre centered directly beneath the surface gyre. Figure 7. Meridional overturning circulation stream function for four 1/12° global HYCOM... circulation and have a weak overturning circulation . The Gulf Stream path is poorly simulated without the steering by the abyssal circulation . A

The Pattern and Dynamics of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Upper Ocean

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-01

Atlantic . Figure 4a shows that the center of meridional overturning circulation occurs at a level of about one kilometer. Circulation is weak at...maintenance of the meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. 5. Global Simulation The most exciting experiment would be to fully model the...mechanisms responsible for the strength and maintenance of the meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean are not

Estimation and Validation of \\delta18O Global Distribution with Rayleigh-type two Dimensional Isotope Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshimura, K.; Oki, T.; Ohte, N.; Kanae, S.; Ichiyanagi, K.

2004-12-01

A simple water isotope circulation model on a global scale that includes a Rayleigh equation and the use of _grealistic_h external meteorological forcings estimates short-term variability of precipitation 18O. The results are validated by Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) monthly observations and by daily observations at three sites in Thailand. This good agreement highlights the importance of large scale transport and mixing of vapor masses as a control factor for spatial and temporal variability of precipitation isotopes, rather than in-cloud micro processes. It also indicates the usefulness of the model and the isotopes observation databases for evaluation of two-dimensional atmospheric water circulation fields in forcing datasets. In this regard, two offline simulations for 1978-1993 with major reanalyses, i.e. NCEP and ERA15, were implemented, and the results show that, over Europe ERA15 better matched observations at both monthly and interannual time scales, mainly owing to better precipitation fields in ERA15, while in the tropics both produced similarly accurate isotopic fields. The isotope analyses diagnose accuracy of two-dimensional water circulation fields in datasets with a particular focus on precipitation processes.

A Coupled Ocean General Circulation, Biogeochemical, and Radiative Model of the Global Oceans: Seasonal Distributions of Ocean Chlorophyll and Nutrients

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson W.; Busalacchi, Antonio (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

A coupled ocean general circulation, biogeochemical, and radiative model was constructed to evaluate and understand the nature of seasonal variability of chlorophyll and nutrients in the global oceans. Biogeochemical processes in the model are determined from the influences of circulation and turbulence dynamics, irradiance availability. and the interactions among three functional phytoplankton groups (diatoms. chlorophytes, and picoplankton) and three nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, and silicate). Basin scale (greater than 1000 km) model chlorophyll results are in overall agreement with CZCS pigments in many global regions. Seasonal variability observed in the CZCS is also represented in the model. Synoptic scale (100-1000 km) comparisons of imagery are generally in conformance although occasional departures are apparent. Model nitrate distributions agree with in situ data, including seasonal dynamics, except for the equatorial Atlantic. The overall agreement of the model with satellite and in situ data sources indicates that the model dynamics offer a reasonably realistic simulation of phytoplankton and nutrient dynamics on synoptic scales. This is especially true given that initial conditions are homogenous chlorophyll fields. The success of the model in producing a reasonable representation of chlorophyll and nutrient distributions and seasonal variability in the global oceans is attributed to the application of a generalized, processes-driven approach as opposed to regional parameterization and the existence of multiple phytoplankton groups with different physiological and physical properties. These factors enable the model to simultaneously represent many aspects of the great diversity of physical, biological, chemical, and radiative environments encountered in the global oceans.

Plausible Effect of Weather on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation with a Coupled General Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zedong; Wan, Xiuquan

2018-04-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a vital component of the global ocean circulation and the heat engine of the climate system. Through the use of a coupled general circulation model, this study examines the role of synoptic systems on the AMOC and presents evidence that internally generated high-frequency, synoptic-scale weather variability in the atmosphere could play a significant role in maintaining the overall strength and variability of the AMOC, thereby affecting climate variability and change. Results of a novel coupling technique show that the strength and variability of the AMOC are greatly reduced once the synoptic weather variability is suppressed in the coupled model. The strength and variability of the AMOC are closely linked to deep convection events at high latitudes, which could be strongly affected by the weather variability. Our results imply that synoptic weather systems are important in driving the AMOC and its variability. Thus, interactions between atmospheric weather variability and AMOC may be an important feedback mechanism of the global climate system and need to be taken into consideration in future climate change studies.

Global circulation as the main source of cloud activity on Titan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodriguez, S.; Le, Mouelic S.; Rannou, P.; Tobie, G.; Baines, K.H.; Barnes, J.W.; Griffith, C.A.; Hirtzig, M.; Pitman, K.M.; Sotin, Christophe; Brown, R.H.; Buratti, B.J.; Clark, R.N.; Nicholson, P.D.

2009-01-01

Clouds on Titan result from the condensation of methane and ethane and, as on other planets, are primarily structured by circulation of the atmosphere. At present, cloud activity mainly occurs in the southern (summer) hemisphere, arising near the pole and at mid-latitudes from cumulus updrafts triggered by surface heating and/or local methane sources, and at the north (winter) pole, resulting from the subsidence and condensation of ethane-rich air into the colder troposphere. General circulation models predict that this distribution should change with the seasons on a 15-year timescale, and that clouds should develop under certain circumstances at temperate latitudes (40??) in the winter hemisphere. The models, however, have hitherto been poorly constrained and their long-term predictions have not yet been observationally verified. Here we report that the global spatial cloud coverage on Titan is in general agreement with the models, confirming that cloud activity is mainly controlled by the global circulation. The non-detection of clouds at latitude 40??N and the persistence of the southern clouds while the southern summer is ending are, however, both contrary to predictions. This suggests that Titans equator-to-pole thermal contrast is overestimated in the models and that its atmosphere responds to the seasonal forcing with a greater inertia than expected. ?? 2009 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Regional climates in the GISS general circulation model: Surface air temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hewitson, Bruce

1994-01-01

One of the more viable research techniques into global climate change for the purpose of understanding the consequent environmental impacts is based on the use of general circulation models (GCMs). However, GCMs are currently unable to reliably predict the regional climate change resulting from global warming, and it is at the regional scale that predictions are required for understanding human and environmental responses. Regional climates in the extratropics are in large part governed by the synoptic-scale circulation and the feasibility of using this interscale relationship is explored to provide a way of moving to grid cell and sub-grid cell scales in the model. The relationships between the daily circulation systems and surface air temperature for points across the continental United States are first developed in a quantitative form using a multivariate index based on principal components analysis (PCA) of the surface circulation. These relationships are then validated by predicting daily temperature using observed circulation and comparing the predicted values with the observed temperatures. The relationships predict surface temperature accurately over the major portion of the country in winter, and for half the country in summer. These relationships are then applied to the surface synoptic circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM control run, and a set of surface grid cell temperatures are generated. These temperatures, based on the larger-scale validated circulation, may now be used with greater confidence at the regional scale. The generated temperatures are compared to those of the model and show that the model has regional errors of up to 10 C in individual grid cells.

Global QBO in circulation and ozone. Part 2: A simple mechanistic model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tung, K. K.; Yang, H.

1994-01-01

Although the phenomenon of equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation is relatively well understood, the problem of how the equatorially confined quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) wave forcing can induce a signal in the extratropics of comparable or larger magnitude remains unsolved. A simple mechanistic model is constructed to provide a quantitative test of the hypothesis that the phenomenon of extratropical QBO is mainly caused by an anomalous seasonal circulation induced by an anomalous Eliassen-Palm (E-P) flux divergence. The anomaly in E-P flux divergence may be caused in turn by the relative poleward and downward shift of the region of irreversible mixing (breaking) of the extratropical planetary waves during the easterly phase of the equatorial QBO as compared to its westerly phase. The hemispheric nature of the anomaly wave forcing in solstice seasons (viz., no wave breaking in the summer hemisphere) induces a global circulation anomaly that projects predominantly into the first few zonal Hough modes of Plumb. Such a global QBO circulation pattern, although difficult to measure directly, is reflected in the distribution of stratospheric tracers transported by it. Our model produces a global pattern of QBO anomaly in column ozone that appears to account for much of the unfiltered interannual variability in the column ozone observed by the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) instrument aboard the Nimbus satellite. Furthermore, the model produces the characteristic spectrum of the observation with peaks at periods of 20 and 30 months.

Global QBO in circulation and ozone. Part 2: A simple mechanistic model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tung, K.K.; Yang, H.

1994-10-01

Although the phenomenon of equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation is relatively well understood, the problem of how the equatorially confined quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) wave forcing can induce a signal in the extratropics of comparable or larger magnitude remains unsolved. A simple mechanistic model is constructed to provide a quantitative test of the hypothesis that the phenomenon of extratropical QBO is mainly caused by an anomalous seasonal circulation induced by an anomalous Eliassen-Palm (E-P) flux divergence. The anomaly in E-P flux divergence may be caused in turn by the relative poleward and downward shift of the region of irreversible mixing (breaking) of themore » extratropical planetary waves during the easterly phase of the equatorial QBO as compared to its westerly phase. The hemispheric nature of the anomaly wave forcing in solstice seasons (viz., no wave breaking in the summer hemisphere) induces a global circulation anomaly that projects predominantly into the first few zonal Hough modes of Plumb. Such a global QBO circulation pattern, although difficult to measure directly, is reflected in the distribution of stratospheric tracers transported by it. Our model produces a global pattern of QBO anomaly in column ozone that appears to account for much of the unfiltered interannual variability in the column ozone observed by the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) instrument aboard the Nimbus satellite. Furthermore, the model produces the characteristic spectrum of the observation with peaks at periods of 20 and 30 months.« less

A Madden-Julian oscillation event realistically simulated by a global cloud-resolving model.

PubMed

Miura, Hiroaki; Satoh, Masaki; Nasuno, Tomoe; Noda, Akira T; Oouchi, Kazuyoshi

2007-12-14

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a massive weather event consisting of deep convection coupled with atmospheric circulation, moving slowly eastward over the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Despite its enormous influence on many weather and climate systems worldwide, it has proven very difficult to simulate an MJO because of assumptions about cumulus clouds in global meteorological models. Using a model that allows direct coupling of the atmospheric circulation and clouds, we successfully simulated the slow eastward migration of an MJO event. Topography, the zonal sea surface temperature gradient, and interplay between eastward- and westward-propagating signals controlled the timing of the eastward transition of the convective center. Our results demonstrate the potential making of month-long MJO predictions when global cloud-resolving models with realistic initial conditions are used.

Tracer transport by the diabatic circulation deduced from satellite observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Solomon, S.; Kiehl, J. T.; Garcia, R. R.; Grose, W.

1986-01-01

Nimbus-7 sensor data were used to track the diabatic circulation in the stratosphere to study the advective transport of CH4 and N2O as tracer species. Advective transport by the mean circulation was found to be a function of the temperature field and associated deviations from radiative equilibrium. A photochemical model was applied to account for the disappearance of the tracer species from the stratosphere. Comparisons between the SAMS data and modeling on the basis of the chemical loss rates of the tracers and the LIMS circulation data showed that the model predictions underestimated the resident abundances, although the global distributions and circulations exhibited a good match.

World Ocean Circulation Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clarke, R. Allyn

1992-01-01

The oceans are an equal partner with the atmosphere in the global climate system. The World Ocean Circulation Experiment is presently being implemented to improve ocean models that are useful for climate prediction both by encouraging more model development but more importantly by providing quality data sets that can be used to force or to validate such models. WOCE is the first oceanographic experiment that plans to generate and to use multiparameter global ocean data sets. In order for WOCE to succeed, oceanographers must establish and learn to use more effective methods of assembling, quality controlling, manipulating and distributing oceanographic data.

The NASA-Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling Framework - Land Information System: Global Land/atmosphere Interaction with Resolved Convection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mohr, Karen Irene; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chern, Jiun-Dar; Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2013-01-01

The present generation of general circulation models (GCM) use parameterized cumulus schemes and run at hydrostatic grid resolutions. To improve the representation of cloud-scale moist processes and landeatmosphere interactions, a global, Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) coupled to the Land Information System (LIS) has been developed at NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center. The MMFeLIS has three components, a finite-volume (fv) GCM (Goddard Earth Observing System Ver. 4, GEOS-4), a 2D cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble, GCE), and the LIS, representing the large-scale atmospheric circulation, cloud processes, and land surface processes, respectively. The non-hydrostatic GCE model replaces the single-column cumulus parameterization of fvGCM. The model grid is composed of an array of fvGCM gridcells each with a series of embedded GCE models. A horizontal coupling strategy, GCE4fvGCM4Coupler4LIS, offered significant computational efficiency, with the scalability and I/O capabilities of LIS permitting landeatmosphere interactions at cloud-scale. Global simulations of 2007e2008 and comparisons to observations and reanalysis products were conducted. Using two different versions of the same land surface model but the same initial conditions, divergence in regional, synoptic-scale surface pressure patterns emerged within two weeks. The sensitivity of largescale circulations to land surface model physics revealed significant functional value to using a scalable, multi-model land surface modeling system in global weather and climate prediction.

Sensitivity of the ocean overturning circulation to wind and mixing: theoretical scalings and global ocean models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikurashin, Maxim; Gunn, Andrew

2017-04-01

The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is a planetary-scale oceanic flow which is of direct importance to the climate system: it transports heat meridionally and regulates the exchange of CO2 with the atmosphere. The MOC is forced by wind and heat and freshwater fluxes at the surface and turbulent mixing in the ocean interior. A number of conceptual theories for the sensitivity of the MOC to changes in forcing have recently been developed and tested with idealized numerical models. However, the skill of the simple conceptual theories to describe the MOC simulated with higher complexity global models remains largely unknown. In this study, we present a systematic comparison of theoretical and modelled sensitivity of the MOC and associated deep ocean stratification to vertical mixing and southern hemisphere westerlies. The results show that theories that simplify the ocean into a single-basin, zonally-symmetric box are generally in a good agreement with a realistic, global ocean circulation model. Some disagreement occurs in the abyssal ocean, where complex bottom topography is not taken into account by simple theories. Distinct regimes, where the MOC has a different sensitivity to wind or mixing, as predicted by simple theories, are also clearly shown by the global ocean model. The sensitivity of the Indo-Pacific, Atlantic, and global basins is analysed separately to validate the conceptual understanding of the upper and lower overturning cells in the theory.

Using a global ocean circulation model to conduct a preliminary risk assessment of oil spills in the Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, Zoe; Popova, Katya; Hirschi, Joel; Coward, Andrew; Yool, Andrew; van Gennip, Simon; Anifowose, Babtunde; Harrington-Missin, Liam

2017-04-01

Although oil blowouts from deep-water drilling happen very rarely, they can cause catastrophic damage to the environment. Despite such potentially high impacts, relatively little research effort has gone into understanding subsurface oil plumes in the deep ocean. In this study, we demonstrate the significance of this problem and offer potential solutions using a novel approach based on a leading-edge, high-resolution global ocean circulation model. We present examples demonstrating: (a) the importance of ocean circulation in the propagation of oil spills; and (b) likely circulation footprints for oil spills at four key locations in the Atlantic Ocean that exist in different circulation regimes - the shelves of Brazil, the Gulf of Guinea, the Gulf of Mexico and the Faroe-Shetland Channel. In order to quantify the variability at each site on seasonal timescales, interannual timescales and at different depths, we utilize the Modified Hausdorff Distance (MHD), which is a shape-distance metric that measures the similarity between two shapes. The scale of the footprints across the four focus locations varies considerably and is determined by the main circulation features in their vicinity. For example, the hypothetical oil plume can be affected by variations in the speed and location of a particular current (e.g. Brazil Current at the Brazilian shelf site) or be influenced by different currents entirely depending on the release depth, month and year (e.g. Angola Current or Southern Equatorial Current at the Gulf of Guinea site). Overall, our results demonstrate the need to use state of the art global, or basin-scale, ocean circulation models when assessing the environmental impacts of proposed oil drilling activities.

Distribution of N2O in the atmosphere under global warming - a simulation study with the MPI Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kracher, Daniela; Manzini, Elisa; Reick, Christian H.; Schultz, Martin; Stein, Olaf

2014-05-01

Climate change is driven by an increasing release of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide (N2O). Besides fossil fuel burning, also land use change and land management are anthropogenic sources of GHGs. Especially inputs of reactive nitrogen via fertilizer and deposition lead to enhanced emissions of N2O. One effect of a drastic future increase in surface temperature is a modification of atmospheric circulation, e.g. an accelerated Brewer Dobson circulation affecting the exchange between troposphere and stratosphere. N2O is inert in the troposphere and decayed only in the stratosphere. Thus, changes in atmospheric circulation, especially changes in the exchange between troposphere and stratosphere, will affect the atmospheric transport, decay, and distribution of N2O. In our study we assess the impact of global warming on atmospheric circulation and implied effects on the distribution and lifetime of atmospheric N2O. As terrestrial N2O emissions are highly determined by inputs of reactive nitrogen - the location of which being determined by human choice - we examine in particular the importance of latitudinal source regions of N2O for its global distribution. For this purpose we apply the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, MPI-ESM. MPI-ESM consists of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM, the land surface model JSBACH, and MPIOM/HAMOCC representing ocean circulation and ocean biogeochemistry. Prognostic atmospheric N2O concentrations in MPI-ESM are determined by land N2O emissions, ocean N2O exchange and atmospheric tracer transport. As stratospheric chemistry is not explicitly represented in MPI-ESM, stratospheric decay rates of N2O are prescribed from a MACC MOZART simulation.

Global Ocean Circulation in Thermohaline Coordinates and Small-scale and Mesoscale mixing: An Inverse Estimate.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groeskamp, S.; Zika, J. D.; McDougall, T. J.; Sloyan, B.

2016-02-01

I will present results of a new inverse technique that infers small-scale turbulent diffusivities and mesoscale eddy diffusivities from an ocean climatology of Salinity (S) and Temperature (T) in combination with surface freshwater and heat fluxes.First, the ocean circulation is represented in (S,T) coordinates, by the diathermohaline streamfunction. Framing the ocean circulation in (S,T) coordinates, isolates the component of the circulation that is directly related to water-mass transformation.Because water-mass transformation is directly related to fluxes of salt and heat, this framework allows for the formulation of an inverse method in which the diathermohaline streamfunction is balanced with known air-sea forcing and unknown mixing. When applying this inverse method to observations, we obtain observationally based estimates for both the streamfunction and the mixing. The results reveal new information about the component of the global ocean circulation due to water-mass transformation and its relation to surface freshwater and heat fluxes and small-scale and mesoscale mixing. The results provide global constraints on spatially varying patterns of diffusivities, in order to obtain a realistic overturning circulation. We find that mesoscale isopycnal mixing is much smaller than expected. These results are important for our understanding of the relation between global ocean circulation and mixing and may lead to improved parameterisations in numerical ocean models.

Biodiversity and Climate Modeling Workshop Series: Identifying gaps and needs for improving large-scale biodiversity models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiskopf, S. R.; Myers, B.; Beard, T. D.; Jackson, S. T.; Tittensor, D.; Harfoot, M.; Senay, G. B.

2017-12-01

At the global scale, well-accepted global circulation models and agreed-upon scenarios for future climate from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are available. In contrast, biodiversity modeling at the global scale lacks analogous tools. While there is great interest in development of similar bodies and efforts for international monitoring and modelling of biodiversity at the global scale, equivalent modelling tools are in their infancy. This lack of global biodiversity models compared to the extensive array of general circulation models provides a unique opportunity to bring together climate, ecosystem, and biodiversity modeling experts to promote development of integrated approaches in modeling global biodiversity. Improved models are needed to understand how we are progressing towards the Aichi Biodiversity Targets, many of which are not on track to meet the 2020 goal, threatening global biodiversity conservation, monitoring, and sustainable use. We brought together biodiversity, climate, and remote sensing experts to try to 1) identify lessons learned from the climate community that can be used to improve global biodiversity models; 2) explore how NASA and other remote sensing products could be better integrated into global biodiversity models and 3) advance global biodiversity modeling, prediction, and forecasting to inform the Aichi Biodiversity Targets, the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, and the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Global Assessment of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. The 1st In-Person meeting focused on determining a roadmap for effective assessment of biodiversity model projections and forecasts by 2030 while integrating and assimilating remote sensing data and applying lessons learned, when appropriate, from climate modeling. Here, we present the outcomes and lessons learned from our first E-discussion and in-person meeting and discuss the next steps for future meetings.

Uncertainties in Carbon Dioxide Radiative Forcing in Atmospheric General Circulation Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cess, R. D.; Zhang, M.-H.; Potter, G. L.; Gates, W. L.; Taylor, K. E.; Barker, H. W.; Colman, R. A.; Fraser, J. R.; McAvaney, B. J.; Dazlich, D. A.;

A large ozone-circulation feedback and its implications for global warming assessments.

PubMed

Nowack, Peer J; Abraham, N Luke; Maycock, Amanda C; Braesicke, Peter; Gregory, Jonathan M; Joshi, Manoj M; Osprey, Annette; Pyle, John A

2015-01-01

State-of-the-art climate models now include more climate processes which are simulated at higher spatial resolution than ever 1 . Nevertheless, some processes, such as atmospheric chemical feedbacks, are still computationally expensive and are often ignored in climate simulations 1,2 . Here we present evidence that how stratospheric ozone is represented in climate models can have a first order impact on estimates of effective climate sensitivity. Using a comprehensive atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model, we find an increase in global mean surface warming of around 1°C (~20%) after 75 years when ozone is prescribed at pre-industrial levels compared with when it is allowed to evolve self-consistently in response to an abrupt 4×CO 2 forcing. The difference is primarily attributed to changes in longwave radiative feedbacks associated with circulation-driven decreases in tropical lower stratospheric ozone and related stratospheric water vapour and cirrus cloud changes. This has important implications for global model intercomparison studies 1,2 in which participating models often use simplified treatments of atmospheric composition changes that are neither consistent with the specified greenhouse gas forcing scenario nor with the associated atmospheric circulation feedbacks 3-5 .

Seasonal Distributions of Global Ocean Chlorophyll and Nutrients: Analysis with a Coupled Ocean General Circulation Biogeochemical, and Radiative Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson W.

1999-01-01

A coupled general ocean circulation, biogeochemical, and radiative model was constructed to evaluate and understand the nature of seasonal variability of chlorophyll and nutrients in the global oceans. The model is driven by climatological meteorological conditions, cloud cover, and sea surface temperature. Biogeochemical processes in the model are determined from the influences of circulation and turbulence dynamics, irradiance availability, and the interactions among three functional phytoplankton groups (diatoms, chorophytes, and picoplankton) and three nutrient groups (nitrate, ammonium, and silicate). Phytoplankton groups are initialized as homogeneous fields horizontally and vertically, and allowed to distribute themselves according to the prevailing conditions. Basin-scale model chlorophyll results are in very good agreement with CZCS pigments in virtually every global region. Seasonal variability observed in the CZCS is also well represented in the model. Synoptic scale (100-1000 km) comparisons of imagery are also in good conformance, although occasional departures are apparent. Agreement of nitrate distributions with in situ data is even better, including seasonal dynamics, except for the equatorial Atlantic. The good agreement of the model with satellite and in situ data sources indicates that the model dynamics realistically simulate phytoplankton and nutrient dynamics on synoptic scales. This is especially true given that initial conditions are homogenous chlorophyll fields. The success of the model in producing a reasonable representation of chlorophyll and nutrient distributions and seasonal variability in the global oceans is attributed to the application of a generalized, processes-driven approach as opposed to regional parameterization, and the existence of multiple phytoplankton groups with different physiological and physical properties. These factors enable the model to simultaneously represent the great diversity of physical, biological, chemical, and radiative environments encountered in the global oceans.

Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jianjun; Schlesinger, Michael E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.

2009-04-01

Human-induced climate change could cause global sea-level rise. Through the dynamic adjustment of the sea surface in response to a possible slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a warming climate could also affect regional sea levels, especially in the North Atlantic region, leading to high vulnerability for low-lying Florida and western Europe. Here we analyse climate projections from a set of state-of-the-art climate models for such regional changes, and find a rapid dynamical rise in sea level on the northeast coast of the United States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the rise due to ocean circulation changes amounts to 15, 20 and 21cm for scenarios with low, medium and high rates of emissions respectively, at a similar magnitude to expected global thermal expansion. Analysing one of the climate models in detail, we find that a dynamic, regional rise in sea level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea-level rise. We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated northeastern United States than estimated previously.

Model Projections of Rapid Sea-Level Rise on the Northeast Coast of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, J.; Schlesinger, M.; Stouffer, R. J.

2009-12-01

Human-induced climate change could cause global sea-level rise. Through the dynamic adjustment of the sea surface in response to a possible slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a warming climate could also affect regional sea levels, especially in the North Atlantic region, leading to high vulnerability for low-lying Florida and western Europe. In the present study, we analyse climate projections from a set of state-of-the-art climate models for such regional changes, and find a rapid dynamical rise in sea level on the northeast coast of the United States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the rise due to ocean circulation changes amounts to 15, 20 and 21 cm for scenarios with low, medium and high rates of emissions respectively, at a similar magnitude to expected global thermal expansion. Analysing one of the climate models in detail, we find that a dynamic, regional rise in sea level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea level rise. We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated northeastern United States than estimated previously.

Impact of Parameterized Lee Wave Drag on the Energy Budget of an Eddying Global Ocean Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-08-26

Teixeira, J., Peng, M., Hogan, T.F., Pauley, R., 2002. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS): Forcing for ocean models...Impact of parameterized lee wave drag on the energy budget of an eddying global ocean model David S. Trossman a,⇑, Brian K. Arbic a, Stephen T...input and output terms in the total mechanical energy budget of a hybrid coordinate high-resolution global ocean general circulation model forced by winds

Heat balance statistics derived from four-dimensional assimilations with a global circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, S. D.; Herman, G. F.

1981-01-01

The reported investigation was conducted to develop a reliable procedure for obtaining the diabatic and vertical terms required for atmospheric heat balance studies. The method developed employs a four-dimensional assimilation mode in connection with the general circulation model of NASA's Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences. The initial analysis was conducted with data obtained in connection with the 1976 Data Systems Test. On the basis of the results of the investigation, it appears possible to use the model's observationally constrained diagnostics to provide estimates of the global distribution of virtually all of the quantities which are needed to compute the atmosphere's heat and energy balance.

U. S. GODAE: Global Ocean Prediction with the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

2008). There are three major contributors to the strength of the Gulf Stream, (1) the wind forcing, (2) the Atlantic meridional overturning ...Smith, 2007. Resolution convergence and sensitivity studies with North Atlantic circulation models. Part I. The western boundary current system...σ-z coordinates, and (3) a baroclinic version of ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC), the latter an unstructured grid model for baroclinic coastal

Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change.

Treesearch

Jay R. Malcolm; Adam Markham; Ronald P. Neilson; Michael Oaraci

2002-01-01

Greefihouse-induced warming and resulting shifts in climatic zones may exceed the migration capabilities of some species. We used fourteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Global Vegetation Models (GVMs) to investigate possible migration rates required under CO2 doubled climatic forcing.

Tropical Cyclone Genesis and Sudden Changes of Track and Intensity in the Western Pacific

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-30

North Atlantic . (Published in 2008) Our work on the effect of internally generated inner-core asymmetries on tropical cyclone potential intensity has...of the atmospheric circulation in TC basins to the global warming is more critical than increasing SST to understanding the impacts of global warming...Japan and its adjacent seas is studied with WRF model. The results suggest that the northward moisture transport through the outer cyclonic circulation

Estimation and Validation of Oceanic Mass Circulation from the GRACE Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boy, J.-P.; Rowlands, D. D.; Sabaka, T. J.; Luthcke, S. B.; Lemoine, F. G.

2011-01-01

Since the launch of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) in March 2002, the Earth's surface mass variations have been monitored with unprecedented accuracy and resolution. Compared to the classical spherical harmonic solutions, global high-resolution mascon solutions allows the retrieval of mass variations with higher spatial and temporal sampling (2 degrees and 10 days). We present here the validation of the GRACE global mascon solutions by comparing mass estimates to a set of about 100 ocean bottom pressure (OSP) records, and show that the forward modelling of continental hydrology prior to the inversion of the K-band range rate data allows better estimates of ocean mass variations. We also validate our GRACE results to OSP variations modelled by different state-of-the-art ocean general circulation models, including ECCO (Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean) and operational and reanalysis from the MERCATOR project.

Mars dust storms - Interannual variability and chaos

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ingersoll, Andrew P.; Lyons, James R.

1993-01-01

The hypothesis is that the global climate system, consisting of atmospheric dust interacting with the circulation, produces its own interannual variability when forced at the annual frequency. The model has two time-dependent variables representing the amount of atmospheric dust in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Absorption of sunlight by the dust drives a cross-equatorial Hadley cell that brings more dust into the heated hemisphere. The circulation decays when the dust storm covers the globe. Interannual variability manifests itself either as a periodic solution in which the period is a multiple of the Martian year, or as an aperiodic (chaotic) solution that never repeats. Both kinds of solution are found in the model, lending support to the idea that interannual variability is an intrinsic property of the global climate system. The next step is to develop a hierarchy of dust-circulation models capable of being integrated for many years.

Large-scale circulation patterns, instability factors and global precipitation modeling as influenced by external forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bundel, A.; Kulikova, I.; Kruglova, E.; Muravev, A.

2003-04-01

The scope of the study is to estimate the relationship between large-scale circulation regimes, various instability indices and global precipitation with different boundary conditions, considered as external forcing. The experiments were carried out in the ensemble-prediction framework of the dynamic-statistical monthly forecast scheme run in the Hydrometeorological Research Center of Russia every ten days. The extension to seasonal intervals makes it necessary to investigate the role of slowly changing boundary conditions among which the sea surface temperature (SST) may be defined as the most effective factor. Continuous integrations of the global spectral T41L15 model for the whole year 2000 (starting from January 1) were performed with the climatic SST and the Reynolds Archive SSTs. Monthly values of the SST were projected on the year days using spline interpolation technique. First, the global precipitation values in experiments were compared to the GPCP (Global Precipitation Climate Program) daily observation data. Although the global mean precipitation is underestimated by the model, some large-scale regional amounts correspond to the real ones (e.g. for Europe) fairly well. On the whole, however, anomaly phases failed to be reproduced. The precipitation averaged over the whole land revealed a greater sensitivity to the SSTs than that over the oceans. The wavelet analysis was applied to separate the low- and high-frequency signal of the SST influence on the large-scale circulation and precipitation. A derivative of the Wallace-Gutzler teleconnection index for the East-Atlantic oscillation was taken as the circulation characteristic. The daily oscillation index values and precipitation amounts averaged over Europe were decomposed using wavelet approach with different “mother wavelets” up to approximation level 3. It was demonstrated that an increase in the precipitation amount over Europe was associated with the zonal flow intensification over the Northern Atlantic when the real SSTs were used. Blocking structures in the circulation caused decreasing precipitation amounts. The wavelet approach gave a more distinctive discrimination in the modeled circulation and precipitation patterns versus different external forcing than a number of other statistical techniques. Several atmospheric instability indices (e.g. the Phillips like parameters, Richardson number etc) were additionally used in post-processing for a more detailed validation of the modeled large-scale and total precipitation amounts. It was shown that a reasonable variety of instability indices must be used for such validations and for precipitation output corrections. Their statistical stability may be substantiated only on the ensemble modeling basis. This work was performed with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (02-05-64655).

Numerical simulation of the circulation of the atmosphere of Titan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hourdin, F.; Levan, P.; Talagrand, O.; Courtin, Regis; Gautier, Daniel; Mckay, Christopher P.

1992-01-01

A three dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) of Titan's atmosphere is described. Initial results obtained with an economical two dimensional (2D) axisymmetric version of the model presented a strong superrotation in the upper stratosphere. Because of this result, a more general numerical study of superrotation was started with a somewhat different version of the GCM. It appears that for a slowly rotating planet which strongly absorbs solar radiation, circulation is dominated by global equator to pole Hadley circulation and strong superrotation. The theoretical study of this superrotation is discussed. It is also shown that 2D simulations systemically lead to instabilities which make 2D models poorly adapted to numerical simulation of Titan's (or Venus) atmosphere.

Global circulation patterns of seasonal influenza viruses vary with antigenic drift

PubMed Central

Bedford, Trevor; Riley, Steven; Barr, Ian G.; Broor, Shobha; Chadha, Mandeep; Cox, Nancy J.; Daniels, Rodney S.; Gunasekaran, C. Palani; Hurt, Aeron C.; Kelso, Anne; Lewis, Nicola S.; Li, Xiyan; McCauley, John W.; Odagiri, Takato; Potdar, Varsha; Rambaut, Andrew; Shu, Yuelong; Skepner, Eugene; Smith, Derek J.; Suchard, Marc A.; Tashiro, Masato; Wang, Dayan; Xu, Xiyan; Lemey, Philippe; Russell, Colin A.

2015-01-01

Understanding the spatio-temporal patterns of emergence and circulation of new human seasonal influenza virus variants is a key scientific and public health challenge. The global circulation patterns of influenza A/H3N2 viruses are well-characterized1-7 but the patterns of A/H1N1 and B viruses have remained largely unexplored. Here, based on analyses of 9,604 hemagglutinin sequences of human seasonal influenza viruses from 2000–2012, we show that the global circulation patterns of A/H1N1 (up to 2009), B/Victoria, and B/Yamagata viruses differ substantially from those of A/H3N2 viruses. While genetic variants of A/H3N2 viruses did not persist locally between epidemics and were reseeded from East and Southeast (E-SE) Asia, genetic variants of A/H1N1 and B viruses persisted across multiple seasons and exhibited complex global dynamics with E-SE Asia playing a limited role in disseminating new variants. The less frequent global movement of influenza A/H1N1 and B viruses coincided with slower rates of antigenic evolution, lower ages of infection, and smaller less frequent epidemics compared to A/H3N2 viruses. Detailed epidemic models support differences in age of infection, combined with the less frequent travel of children, as likely drivers of the differences in the patterns of global circulation, suggesting a complex interaction between virus evolution, epidemiology and human behavior. PMID:26053121

Global circulation patterns of seasonal influenza viruses vary with antigenic drift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedford, Trevor; Riley, Steven; Barr, Ian G.; Broor, Shobha; Chadha, Mandeep; Cox, Nancy J.; Daniels, Rodney S.; Gunasekaran, C. Palani; Hurt, Aeron C.; Kelso, Anne; Klimov, Alexander; Lewis, Nicola S.; Li, Xiyan; McCauley, John W.; Odagiri, Takato; Potdar, Varsha; Rambaut, Andrew; Shu, Yuelong; Skepner, Eugene; Smith, Derek J.; Suchard, Marc A.; Tashiro, Masato; Wang, Dayan; Xu, Xiyan; Lemey, Philippe; Russell, Colin A.

2015-07-01

Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of emergence and circulation of new human seasonal influenza virus variants is a key scientific and public health challenge. The global circulation patterns of influenza A/H3N2 viruses are well characterized, but the patterns of A/H1N1 and B viruses have remained largely unexplored. Here we show that the global circulation patterns of A/H1N1 (up to 2009), B/Victoria, and B/Yamagata viruses differ substantially from those of A/H3N2 viruses, on the basis of analyses of 9,604 haemagglutinin sequences of human seasonal influenza viruses from 2000 to 2012. Whereas genetic variants of A/H3N2 viruses did not persist locally between epidemics and were reseeded from East and Southeast Asia, genetic variants of A/H1N1 and B viruses persisted across several seasons and exhibited complex global dynamics with East and Southeast Asia playing a limited role in disseminating new variants. The less frequent global movement of influenza A/H1N1 and B viruses coincided with slower rates of antigenic evolution, lower ages of infection, and smaller, less frequent epidemics compared to A/H3N2 viruses. Detailed epidemic models support differences in age of infection, combined with the less frequent travel of children, as probable drivers of the differences in the patterns of global circulation, suggesting a complex interaction between virus evolution, epidemiology, and human behaviour.

Adaptation of a general circulation model to ocean dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turner, R. E.; Rees, T. H.; Woodbury, G. E.

1976-01-01

A primitive-variable general circulation model of the ocean was formulated in which fast external gravity waves are suppressed with rigid-lid surface constraint pressires which also provide a means for simulating the effects of large-scale free-surface topography. The surface pressure method is simpler to apply than the conventional stream function models, and the resulting model can be applied to both global ocean and limited region situations. Strengths and weaknesses of the model are also presented.

Global Response to Local Ionospheric Mass Ejection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, T. E.; Fok, M.-C.; Delcourt, D. C.; Slinker, S. P.; Fedder, J. A.

2010-01-01

We revisit a reported "Ionospheric Mass Ejection" using prior event observations to guide a global simulation of local ionospheric outflows, global magnetospheric circulation, and plasma sheet pressurization, and comparing our results with the observed global response. Our simulation framework is based on test particle motions in the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) global circulation model electromagnetic fields. The inner magnetosphere is simulated with the Comprehensive Ring Current Model (CRCM) of Fok and Wolf, driven by the transpolar potential developed by the LFM magnetosphere, and includes an embedded plasmaspheric simulation. Global circulation is stimulated using the observed solar wind conditions for the period 24-25 Sept 1998. This period begins with the arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection, initially with northward, but later with southward interplanetary magnetic field. Test particles are launched from the ionosphere with fluxes specified by local empirical relationships of outflow to electrodynamic and particle precipitation imposed by the MIlD simulation. Particles are tracked until they are lost from the system downstream or into the atmosphere, using the full equations of motion. Results are compared with the observed ring current and a simulation of polar and auroral wind outflows driven globally by solar wind dynamic pressure. We find good quantitative agreement with the observed ring current, and reasonable qualitative agreement with earlier simulation results, suggesting that the solar wind driven global simulation generates realistic energy dissipation in the ionosphere and that the Strangeway relations provide a realistic local outflow description.

Variations of total electron content during geomagnetic disturbances: A model/observation comparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roble, G. Lu X. Pi A. D. Richmond R. G.

1997-01-01

This paper studies the ionospheric response to major geomagnetic storm of October 18-19, 1995, using the thermosphere-ionosphere electrodynamic general circulation model (TIE-GCM) simulations and the global ionospheric maps (GIM) of total electron content (TEC) observations from the Global Positioning System (GPS) worldwide network.

The Southern Ocean biogeochemical divide.

PubMed

Marinov, I; Gnanadesikan, A; Toggweiler, J R; Sarmiento, J L

2006-06-22

Modelling studies have demonstrated that the nutrient and carbon cycles in the Southern Ocean play a central role in setting the air-sea balance of CO(2) and global biological production. Box model studies first pointed out that an increase in nutrient utilization in the high latitudes results in a strong decrease in the atmospheric carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO2). This early research led to two important ideas: high latitude regions are more important in determining atmospheric pCO2 than low latitudes, despite their much smaller area, and nutrient utilization and atmospheric pCO2 are tightly linked. Subsequent general circulation model simulations show that the Southern Ocean is the most important high latitude region in controlling pre-industrial atmospheric CO(2) because it serves as a lid to a larger volume of the deep ocean. Other studies point out the crucial role of the Southern Ocean in the uptake and storage of anthropogenic carbon dioxide and in controlling global biological production. Here we probe the system to determine whether certain regions of the Southern Ocean are more critical than others for air-sea CO(2) balance and the biological export production, by increasing surface nutrient drawdown in an ocean general circulation model. We demonstrate that atmospheric CO(2) and global biological export production are controlled by different regions of the Southern Ocean. The air-sea balance of carbon dioxide is controlled mainly by the biological pump and circulation in the Antarctic deep-water formation region, whereas global export production is controlled mainly by the biological pump and circulation in the Subantarctic intermediate and mode water formation region. The existence of this biogeochemical divide separating the Antarctic from the Subantarctic suggests that it may be possible for climate change or human intervention to modify one of these without greatly altering the other.

Global Weather Prediction and High-End Computing at NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Shian-Jiann; Atlas, Robert; Yeh, Kao-San

2003-01-01

We demonstrate current capabilities of the NASA finite-volume General Circulation Model an high-resolution global weather prediction, and discuss its development path in the foreseeable future. This model can be regarded as a prototype of a future NASA Earth modeling system intended to unify development activities cutting across various disciplines within the NASA Earth Science Enterprise.

Multiple states in the late Eocene ocean circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baatsen, M. L. J.; von der Heydt, A. S.; Kliphuis, M.; Viebahn, J.; Dijkstra, H. A.

2018-04-01

The Eocene-Oligocene Transition (EOT) marks a major step within the Cenozoic climate in going from a greenhouse into an icehouse state, with the formation of a continental-scale Antarctic ice sheet. The roles of steadily decreasing CO2 concentrations versus changes in ocean circulation at the EOT are still debated and the threshold for Antarctic glaciation is obscured by uncertainties in global geometry. Here, a detailed study of the late Eocene ocean circulation is carried out using an ocean general circulation model under two slightly different geography reconstructions of the middle-to-late Eocene (38 Ma). Using the same atmospheric forcing, both geographies give a profoundly different equilibrium ocean circulation state. The underlying reason for this sensitivity is the presence of multiple equilibria characterised by either North or South Pacific deep water formation. A possible shift from a southern towards a northern overturning circulation would result in significant changes in the global heat distribution and consequently make the Southern Hemisphere climate more susceptible for significant cooling and ice sheet formation on Antarctica.

Technical report series on global modeling and data assimilation. Volume 1: Documentation of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) General Circulation Model, version 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suarez, Max J. (Editor); Takacs, Lawrence L.; Molod, Andrea; Wang, Tina

1994-01-01

This technical report documents Version 1 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) General Circulation Model (GCM). The GEOS-1 GCM is being used by NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO) to produce multiyear data sets for climate research. This report provides a documentation of the model components used in the GEOS-1 GCM, a complete description of model diagnostics available, and a User's Guide to facilitate GEOS-1 GCM experiments.

Meridional overturning and large-scale circulation of the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganachaud, Alexandre; Wunsch, Carl; Marotzke, Jochem; Toole, John

2000-11-01

The large scale Indian Ocean circulation is estimated from a global hydrographic inverse geostrophic box model with a focus on the meridional overturning circulation (MOC). The global model is based on selected recent World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) sections which in the Indian Basin consist of zonal sections at 32°S, 20°S and 8°S, and a section between Bali and Australia from the Java-Australia Dynamic Experiment (JADE). The circulation is required to conserve mass, salinity, heat, silica and "PO" (170PO4+O2). Near-conservation is imposed within layers bounded by neutral surfaces, while permitting advective and diffusive exchanges between the layers. Conceptually, the derived circulation is an estimate of the average circulation for the period 1987-1995. A deep inflow into the Indian Basin of 11±4 Sv is found, which is in the lower range of previous estimates, but consistent with conservation requirements and the global data set. The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) is estimated at 15±5 Sv. The flow in the Mozambique Channel is of the same magnitude, implying a weak net flow between Madagascar and Australia. A net evaporation of -0.6±0.4 Sv is found between 32°S and 8°S, consistent with independent estimates. No net heat gain is found over the Indian Basin (0.1 ± 0.2PW north of 32°S) as a consequence of the large warm water influx from the ITF. Through the use of anomaly equations, the average dianeutral upwelling and diffusion between the sections are required and resolved, with values in the range 1-3×10-5 cm s-1 for the upwelling and 2-10 cm2 s-1 for the diffusivity.

Secondary Gravity Waves in the Winter Mesosphere: Results From a High-Resolution Global Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, Erich; Vadas, Sharon L.

2018-03-01

This study analyzes a new high-resolution general circulation model with regard to secondary gravity waves in the mesosphere during austral winter. The model resolves gravity waves down to horizontal and vertical wavelengths of 165 and 1.5 km, respectively. The resolved mean wave drag agrees well with that from a conventional model with parameterized gravity waves up to the midmesosphere in winter and up to the upper mesosphere in summer. About half of the zonal-mean vertical flux of westward momentum in the southern winter stratosphere is due to orographic gravity waves. The high intermittency of the primary orographic gravity waves gives rise to secondary waves that result in a substantial eastward drag in the winter mesopause region. This induces an additional eastward maximum of the mean zonal wind at z ˜ 100 km. Radar and lidar measurements at polar latitudes and results from other high-resolution global models are consistent with this finding. Hence, secondary gravity waves may play a significant role in the general circulation of the winter mesopause region.

The Sensitivity of a Global Ocean Model to Wind Forcing: A Test Using Sea Level and Wind Observations from Satellites and Operational Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, L. L.; Chao, Y.

1997-01-01

Investigated in this study is the response of a global ocean general circulation model to forcing provided by two wind products: operational analysis from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP); observations made by the ERS-1 radar scatterometer.

NASA/MSFC FY90 Global Scale Atmospheric Processes Research Program Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leslie, Fred W. (Editor)

1990-01-01

Research supported by the Global Atmospheric Research Program at the Marshall Space Flight Center on atmospheric remote sensing, meteorology, numerical weather forecasting, satellite data analysis, cloud precipitation, atmospheric circulation, atmospheric models and related topics is discussed.

Atmospheric Diabatic Heating in Different Weather States and the General Circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rossow, William B.; Zhang, Yuanchong; Tselioudis, George

2016-01-01

Analysis of multiple global satellite products identifies distinctive weather states of the atmosphere from the mesoscale pattern of cloud properties and quantifies the associated diabatic heating/cooling by radiative flux divergence, precipitation, and surface sensible heat flux. The results show that the forcing for the atmospheric general circulation is a very dynamic process, varying strongly at weather space-time scales, comprising relatively infrequent, strong heating events by ''stormy'' weather and more nearly continuous, weak cooling by ''fair'' weather. Such behavior undercuts the value of analyses of time-averaged energy exchanges in observations or numerical models. It is proposed that an analysis of the joint time-related variations of the global weather states and the general circulation on weather space-time scales might be used to establish useful ''feedback like'' relationships between cloud processes and the large-scale circulation.

On the limitations of General Circulation Climate Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stone, Peter H.; Risbey, James S.

1990-01-01

General Circulation Models (GCMs) by definition calculate large-scale dynamical and thermodynamical processes and their associated feedbacks from first principles. This aspect of GCMs is widely believed to give them an advantage in simulating global scale climate changes as compared to simpler models which do not calculate the large-scale processes from first principles. However, it is pointed out that the meridional transports of heat simulated GCMs used in climate change experiments differ from observational analyses and from other GCMs by as much as a factor of two. It is also demonstrated that GCM simulations of the large scale transports of heat are sensitive to the (uncertain) subgrid scale parameterizations. This leads to the question whether current GCMs are in fact superior to simpler models for simulating temperature changes associated with global scale climate change.

Indirect downscaling of global circulation model data based on atmospheric circulation and temperature for projections of future precipitation in hourly resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, F.; Bárdossy, A.

2013-07-01

Many hydraulic applications like the design of urban sewage systems require projections of future precipitation in high temporal resolution. We developed a method to predict the regional distribution of hourly precipitation sums based on daily mean sea level pressure and temperature data from a Global Circulation Model. It is an indirect downscaling method avoiding uncertain precipitation data from the model. It is based on a fuzzy-logic classification of atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) that is further subdivided by means of the average daily temperature. The observed empirical distributions at 30 rain gauges to each CP-temperature class are assumed as constant and used for projections of the hourly precipitation sums in the future. The method was applied to the CP-temperature sequence derived from the 20th century run and the scenario A1B run of ECHAM5. According to ECHAM5, the summers in southwest Germany will become progressively drier. Nevertheless, the frequency of the highest hourly precipitation sums will increase. According to the predictions, estival water stress and the risk of extreme hourly precipitation will both increase simultaneously during the next decades.

A general circulation model study of atmospheric carbon monoxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pinto, J. P.; Rind, D.; Russell, G. L.; Lerner, J. A.; Hansen, J. E.; Yung, Y. L.; Hameed, S.

1983-01-01

The carbon monoxide cycle is studied by incorporating the known and hypothetical sources and sinks in a tracer model that uses the winds generated by a general circulation model. Photochemical production and loss terms, which depend on OH radical concentrations, are calculated in an interactive fashion. The computed global distribution and seasonal variations of CO are compared with observations to obtain constraints on the distribution and magnitude of the sources and sinks of CO, and on the tropospheric abundance of OH. The simplest model that accounts for available observations requires a low latitude plant source of about 1.3 x 10 to the 15th g/yr, in addition to sources from incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and oxidation of methane. The globally averaged OH concentration calculated in the model is 750,000/cu cm. Models that calculate globally averaged OH concentrations much lower than this nominal value are not consistent with the observed variability of CO. Such models are also inconsistent with measurements of CO isotopic abundances, which imply the existence of plant sources.

Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, L. C.; Kahana, R.; Graham, T.; Ringer, M. A.; Woollings, T.; Mecking, J. V.; Wood, R. A.

2015-12-01

The impacts of a hypothetical slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are assessed in a state-of-the-art global climate model (HadGEM3), with particular emphasis on Europe. This is the highest resolution coupled global climate model to be used to study the impacts of an AMOC slowdown so far. Many results found are consistent with previous studies and can be considered robust impacts from a large reduction or collapse of the AMOC. These include: widespread cooling throughout the North Atlantic and northern hemisphere in general; less precipitation in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes; large changes in precipitation in the tropics and a strengthening of the North Atlantic storm track. The focus on Europe, aided by the increase in resolution, has revealed previously undiscussed impacts, particularly those associated with changing atmospheric circulation patterns. Summer precipitation decreases (increases) in northern (southern) Europe and is associated with a negative summer North Atlantic Oscillation signal. Winter precipitation is also affected by the changing atmospheric circulation, with localised increases in precipitation associated with more winter storms and a strengthened winter storm track. Stronger westerly winds in winter increase the warming maritime effect while weaker westerlies in summer decrease the cooling maritime effect. In the absence of these circulation changes the cooling over Europe's landmass would be even larger in both seasons. The general cooling and atmospheric circulation changes result in weaker peak river flows and vegetation productivity, which may raise issues of water availability and crop production.

A bottom-up evolution of terrestrial ecosystem modeling theory, and ideas toward global vegetation modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Running, Steven W.

1992-01-01

A primary purpose of this review is to convey lessons learned in the development of a forest ecosystem modeling approach, from it origins in 1973 as a single-tree water balance model to the current regional applications. The second intent is to use this accumulated experience to offer ideas of how terrestrial ecosystem modeling can be taken to the global scale: earth systems modeling. A logic is suggested where mechanistic ecosystem models are not themselves operated globally, but rather are used to 'calibrate' much simplified models, primarily driven by remote sensing, that could be implemented in a semiautomated way globally, and in principle could interface with atmospheric general circulation models (GCM's).

The strength of the meridional overturning circulation of the stratosphere

PubMed Central

Linz, Marianna; Plumb, R. Alan; Gerber, Edwin P.; Haenel, Florian J.; Stiller, Gabriele; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Ming, Alison; Neu, Jessica L.

2017-01-01

The distribution of gases such as ozone and water vapour in the stratosphere — which affect surface climate — is influenced by the meridional overturning of mass in the stratosphere, the Brewer–Dobson circulation. However, observation-based estimates of its global strength are difficult to obtain. Here we present two calculations of the mean strength of the meridional overturning of the stratosphere. We analyze satellite data that document the global diabatic circulation between 2007– 2011, and compare these to three re-analysis data sets and to simulations with a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model. Using measurements of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) and nitrous oxide, we calculate the global mean diabatic overturning mass flux throughout the stratosphere. In the lower stratosphere, these two estimates agree, and at a potential temperature level of 460 K (about 20 km or 60 hPa in tropics), the global circulation strength is 6.3–7.6 × 109 kg/s. Higher in the atmosphere, only the SF6-based estimate is available, and it diverges from the re-analysis data and simulations. Interpretation of the SF6 data-based estimate is limited because of a mesospheric sink of SF6; however, the reanalyses also differ substantially from each other. We conclude that the uncertainty in the mean meridional overturning circulation strength at upper levels of the stratosphere amounts to at least 100 %. PMID:28966661

A global multiscale mathematical model for the human circulation with emphasis on the venous system.

PubMed

Müller, Lucas O; Toro, Eleuterio F

2014-07-01

We present a global, closed-loop, multiscale mathematical model for the human circulation including the arterial system, the venous system, the heart, the pulmonary circulation and the microcirculation. A distinctive feature of our model is the detailed description of the venous system, particularly for intracranial and extracranial veins. Medium to large vessels are described by one-dimensional hyperbolic systems while the rest of the components are described by zero-dimensional models represented by differential-algebraic equations. Robust, high-order accurate numerical methodology is implemented for solving the hyperbolic equations, which are adopted from a recent reformulation that includes variable material properties. Because of the large intersubject variability of the venous system, we perform a patient-specific characterization of major veins of the head and neck using MRI data. Computational results are carefully validated using published data for the arterial system and most regions of the venous system. For head and neck veins, validation is carried out through a detailed comparison of simulation results against patient-specific phase-contrast MRI flow quantification data. A merit of our model is its global, closed-loop character; the imposition of highly artificial boundary conditions is avoided. Applications in mind include a vast range of medical conditions. Of particular interest is the study of some neurodegenerative diseases, whose venous haemodynamic connection has recently been identified by medical researchers. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Potential change in lodgepole pine site index and distribution under climatic change in Alberta.

Treesearch

Robert A. Monserud; Yuqing Yang; Shongming Huang; Nadja Tchebakova

2008-01-01

We estimated the impact of global climate change on lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex. Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.) site productivity in Alberta based on the Alberta Climate Model and the A2 SRES climate change scenario projections from three global circulation models (CGCM2, HADCM3, and ECHAM4). Considerable warming is...

Global Reference Atmosphere Model (GRAM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woodrum, A. W.

1989-01-01

GRAM series of four-dimensional atmospheric model validated by years of data. GRAM program, still available. More current are Gram 86, which includes atmospheric data from 1986 and runs on DEC VAX, and GRAM 88, which runs on IBM 3084. Program generates altitude profiles of atmospheric parameters along any simulated trajectory through atmosphere, and also useful for global circulation and diffusion studies.

On the Use of Satellite Altimetry to Detect Ocean Circulation's Magnetic Signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saynisch, J.; Irrgang, C.; Thomas, M.

2018-03-01

Oceanic magnetic signals are sensitive to ocean velocity, salinity, and heat content. The detection of respective signals with global satellite magnetometers would pose a very valuable source of information. While tidal magnetic fields are already detected, electromagnetic signals of the ocean circulation still remain unobserved from space. We propose to use satellite altimetry to construct proxy magnetic signals of the ocean circulation. These proxy time series could subsequently be fitted to satellite magnetometer data. The fitted data could be removed from the observations or the fitting constants could be analyzed for physical properties of the ocean, e.g., the heat budget. To test and evaluate this approach, synthetic true and proxy magnetic signals are derived from a global circulation model of the ocean. Both data sets are compared in dependence of location and time scale. We study and report when and where the proxy data describe the true signal sufficiently well. Correlations above 0.6 and explained variances of above 80% can be reported for large parts of the Antarctic ocean, thus explaining the major part of the global, subseasonal magnetic signal.

The impact of resolution on the dynamics of the martian global atmosphere: Varying resolution studies with the MarsWRF GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toigo, Anthony D.; Lee, Christopher; Newman, Claire E.; Richardson, Mark I.

2012-09-01

We investigate the sensitivity of the circulation and thermal structure of the martian atmosphere to numerical model resolution in a general circulation model (GCM) using the martian implementation (MarsWRF) of the planetWRF atmospheric model. We provide a description of the MarsWRF GCM and use it to study the global atmosphere at horizontal resolutions from 7.5° × 9° to 0.5° × 0.5°, encompassing the range from standard Mars GCMs to global mesoscale modeling. We find that while most of the gross-scale features of the circulation (the rough location of jets, the qualitative thermal structure, and the major large-scale features of the surface level winds) are insensitive to horizontal resolution over this range, several major features of the circulation are sensitive in detail. The northern winter polar circulation shows the greatest sensitivity, showing a continuous transition from a smooth polar winter jet at low resolution, to a distinct vertically “split” jet as resolution increases. The separation of the lower and middle atmosphere polar jet occurs at roughly 10 Pa, with the split jet structure developing in concert with the intensification of meridional jets at roughly 10 Pa and above 0.1 Pa. These meridional jets appear to represent the separation of lower and middle atmosphere mean overturning circulations (with the former being consistent with the usual concept of the “Hadley cell”). Further, the transition in polar jet structure is more sensitive to changes in zonal than meridional horizontal resolution, suggesting that representation of small-scale wave-mean flow interactions is more important than fine-scale representation of the meridional thermal gradient across the polar front. Increasing the horizontal resolution improves the match between the modeled thermal structure and the Mars Climate Sounder retrievals for northern winter high latitudes. While increased horizontal resolution also improves the simulation of the northern high latitudes at equinox, even the lowest model resolution considered here appears to do a good job for the southern winter and southern equinoctial pole (although in detail some discrepancies remain). These results suggest that studies of the northern winter jet (e.g., transient waves and cyclogenesis) will be more sensitive to global model resolution that those of the south (e.g., the confining dynamics of the southern polar vortex relevant to studies of argon transport). For surface winds, the major effect of increased horizontal resolution is in the superposition of circulations forced by local-scale topography upon the large-scale surface wind patterns. While passive predictions of dust lifting are generally insensitive to model horizontal resolution when no lifting threshold is considered, increasing the stress threshold produces significantly more lifting in higher resolution simulations with the generation of finer-scale, higher-stress winds due primarily to better-resolved topography. Considering the positive feedbacks expected for radiatively active dust lifting, we expect this bias to increase when such feedbacks are permitted.

An Isopycnal Box Model with predictive deep-ocean structure for biogeochemical cycling applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodwin, Philip

2012-07-01

To simulate global ocean biogeochemical tracer budgets a model must accurately determine both the volume and surface origins of each water-mass. Water-mass volumes are dynamically linked to the ocean circulation in General Circulation Models, but at the cost of high computational load. In computationally efficient Box Models the water-mass volumes are simply prescribed and do not vary when the circulation transport rates or water mass densities are perturbed. A new computationally efficient Isopycnal Box Model is presented in which the sub-surface box volumes are internally calculated from the prescribed circulation using a diffusive conceptual model of the thermocline, in which upwelling of cold dense water is balanced by a downward diffusion of heat. The volumes of the sub-surface boxes are set so that the density stratification satisfies an assumed link between diapycnal diffusivity, κd, and buoyancy frequency, N: κd = c/(Nα), where c and α are user prescribed parameters. In contrast to conventional Box Models, the volumes of the sub-surface ocean boxes in the Isopycnal Box Model are dynamically linked to circulation, and automatically respond to circulation perturbations. This dynamical link allows an important facet of ocean biogeochemical cycling to be simulated in a highly computationally efficient model framework.

Large Scale Eocene Ocean Circulation Transition Could Help Antarctic Glaciation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baatsen, M.

2016-12-01

The global climate underwent major changes going from the Eocene into the Oligocene, including the formation of a continental-scale Antarctic ice sheet. In addition to a gradual drawdown of CO2 since the Early Eocene, the changing background geography of the earth may also have played a crucial role in setting the background oceanic circulation pattern favorable to ice growth. On the other hand, the ocean circulation may have changed only after the ice sheet started growing, with a similar climatic imprint. It is, therefore, still under debate what the primary forcing or trigger of this transition was. Using an ocean general circulation model (POP) and two different geography reconstruc-tions for the middle-late Eocene, we find two distinctly different patterns of the oceanic circulation to be possible under the same forcing. The first one features deep-water formation and warmer SSTs in the Southern Pacific while in the second, deep water forms in the North Pacific Ocean and Southern Ocean SSTs are colder. The presence of a double equilibrium shows that the ocean circulation was highly susceptible to large scale transitions during the middle-late Eocene. Additionally, changes in benthic oxygen and Neodymium isotopes depict significant changes during the same period. We suggest that a transition in the global meridional overturing circulation can explain the observed changes and preconditions the global climate for the two-step transition into an Icehouse state at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary.

Global energetics and local physics as drivers of past, present and future monsoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biasutti, Michela; Voigt, Aiko; Boos, William R.; Braconnot, Pascale; Hargreaves, Julia C.; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kang, Sarah M.; Mapes, Brian E.; Scheff, Jacob; Schumacher, Courtney; Sobel, Adam H.; Xie, Shang-Ping

2018-06-01

Global constraints on momentum and energy govern the variability of the rainfall belt in the intertropical convergence zone and the structure of the zonal mean tropical circulation. The continental-scale monsoon systems are also facets of a momentum- and energy-constrained global circulation, but their modern and palaeo variability deviates substantially from that of the intertropical convergence zone. The mechanisms underlying deviations from expectations based on the longitudinal mean budgets are neither fully understood nor simulated accurately. We argue that a framework grounded in global constraints on energy and momentum yet encompassing the complexities of monsoon dynamics is needed to identify the causes of the mismatch between theory, models and observations, and ultimately to improve regional climate projections. In a first step towards this goal, disparate regional processes must be distilled into gross measures of energy flow in and out of continents and between the surface and the tropopause, so that monsoon dynamics may be coherently diagnosed across modern and palaeo observations and across idealized and comprehensive simulations. Accounting for zonal asymmetries in the circulation, land/ocean differences in surface fluxes, and the character of convective systems, such a monsoon framework would integrate our understanding at all relevant scales: from the fine details of how moisture and energy are lifted in the updrafts of thunderclouds, up to the global circulations.

Assessing the Global Climate Response to Freshwater Forcing from the Antarctic Ice Sheet Under Future Climate Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogstad, S.; Condron, A.; DeConto, R.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

Observational evidence indicates that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is losing mass at an accelerating rate. Impacts to global climate resulting from changing ocean circulation patterns due to increased freshwater runoff from Antarctica in the future could have significant implications for global heat transport, but to-date this topic has not been investigated using complex numerical models with realistic freshwater forcing. Here, we present results from a high resolution fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model (CESM 1.2) forced with runoff from Antarctica prescribed from a high resolution regional ice sheet-ice shelf model. Results from the regional simulations indicate a potential freshwater contribution from Antarctica of up to 1 m equivalent sea level rise by the end of the century under RCP 8.5 indicating that a substantial input of freshwater into the Southern Ocean is possible. Our high resolution global simulations were performed under IPCC future climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. We will present results showing the impact of WAIS collapse on global ocean circulation, sea ice, air temperature, and salinity in order to assess the potential for abrupt climate change triggered by WAIS collapse.

Maritime Continent seasonal climate biases in AMIP experiments of the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toh, Ying Ying; Turner, Andrew G.; Johnson, Stephanie J.; Holloway, Christopher E.

2018-02-01

The fidelity of 28 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models in simulating mean climate over the Maritime Continent in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) experiment is evaluated in this study. The performance of AMIP models varies greatly in reproducing seasonal mean climate and the seasonal cycle. The multi-model mean has better skill at reproducing the observed mean climate than the individual models. The spatial pattern of 850 hPa wind is better simulated than the precipitation in all four seasons. We found that model horizontal resolution is not a good indicator of model performance. Instead, a model's local Maritime Continent biases are somewhat related to its biases in the local Hadley circulation and global monsoon. The comparison with coupled models in CMIP5 shows that AMIP models generally performed better than coupled models in the simulation of the global monsoon and local Hadley circulation but less well at simulating the Maritime Continent annual cycle of precipitation. To characterize model systematic biases in the AMIP runs, we performed cluster analysis on Maritime Continent annual cycle precipitation. Our analysis resulted in two distinct clusters. Cluster I models are able to capture both the winter monsoon and summer monsoon shift, but they overestimate the precipitation; especially during the JJA and SON seasons. Cluster II models simulate weaker seasonal migration than observed, and the maximum rainfall position stays closer to the equator throughout the year. The tropics-wide properties of these clusters suggest a connection between the skill of simulating global properties of the monsoon circulation and the skill of simulating the regional scale of Maritime Continent precipitation.

Near-inertial Wave Studies Using Historical Mooring Records and a High-Resolution General Circulation Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-30

Mooring Records and a High- Resolution General Circulation Model Harper Simmons School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences 903 Koyukuk Drive Fairbanks AK...oceanographic community has been to develop a global internal wave prediction system analogous to those already in place for surface waves. Early steps have... Fisheries and Ocean Sciences,903 Koyukuk Drive,Fairbanks,AK,99775 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND

Gravitational effects on global hemodynamics in different postures: A closed-loop multiscale mathematical analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiancheng; Noda, Shigeho; Himeno, Ryutaro; Liu, Hao

2017-06-01

We present a novel methodology and strategy to predict pressures and flow rates in the global cardiovascular network in different postures varying from supine to upright. A closed-loop, multiscale mathematical model of the entire cardiovascular system (CVS) is developed through an integration of one-dimensional (1D) modeling of the large systemic arteries and veins, and zero-dimensional (0D) lumped-parameter modeling of the heart, the cardiac-pulmonary circulation, the cardiac and venous valves, as well as the microcirculation. A versatile junction model is proposed and incorporated into the 1D model to cope with splitting and/or merging flows across a multibranched junction, which is validated to be capable of estimating both subcritical and supercritical flows while ensuring the mass conservation and total pressure continuity. To model gravitational effects on global hemodynamics during postural change, a robust venous valve model is further established for the 1D venous flows and distributed throughout the entire venous network with consideration of its anatomically realistic numbers and locations. The present integrated model is proven to enable reasonable prediction of pressure and flow rate waveforms associated with cardiopulmonary circulation, systemic circulation in arteries and veins, as well as microcirculation within normal physiological ranges, particularly in mean venous pressures, which well match the in vivo measurements. Applications of the cardiovascular model at different postures demonstrate that gravity exerts remarkable influence on arterial and venous pressures, venous returns and cardiac outputs whereas venous pressures below the heart level show a specific correlation between central venous and hydrostatic pressures in right atrium and veins.

A three-dimensional, finite element model for coastal and estuarine circulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walters, R.A.

1992-01-01

This paper describes the development and application of a three-dimensional model for coastal and estuarine circulation. The model uses a harmonic expansion in time and a finite element discretization in space. All nonlinear terms are retained, including quadratic bottom stress, advection and wave transport (continuity nonlinearity). The equations are solved as a global and a local problem, where the global problem is the solution of the wave equation formulation of the shallow water equations, and the local problem is the solution of the momentum equation for the vertical velocity profile. These equations are coupled to the advection-diffusion equation for salt so that density gradient forcing is included in the momentum equations. The model is applied to a study of Delaware Bay, U.S.A., where salinity intrusion is the primary focus. ?? 1991.

Multi-scale Predictability with a New Coupled Non-hydrostatic Global Model over the Arctic Annual Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

tropopause polar vortices, which are prevalent circulation features over the Arctic that play a major role in the evolution of surface pressure anomalies...pressure and tropospheric circulation anomalies and will allow us to answer specific questions regarding its ability to reproduce the appropriate AO... circulation patterns (Fig. 1c). While the mean patterns are favorable regarding the ability of MPAS to encapsulate the overall patterns of these two

Decoupling of Iron and Phosphate in the Global Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parekh, Payal

2003-01-01

Iron is an essential micronutrient for marine phytoplankton, limiting their growth in high nutrient, low chlorophyll regions of the ocean. I use a hierarchy of ocean circulation and biogeochemistry models to understand controls on global iron distribution. I formulate a mechanistic model of iron cycling which includes scavenging onto sinking particles and complexation with an organic ligand. The iron cycle is coupled to a phosphorus cycling model. Iron's aeolian source is prescribed. In the context of a highly idealized multi-box model scheme, the model can be brought into consistency with the relatively sparse ocean observations of iron in the oceans. This biogeochemical scheme is also implemented in a coarse resolution ocean general circulation model. This model also successfully reproduces the broad regional patterns of iron and phosphorus. In particular, the high macronutrient concentrations of the Southern Ocean result from iron limitation in the model. Due to the potential ability of iron to change the efficiency of the carbon pump in the remote Southern Ocean, I study Southern Ocean surface phosphate response to increased aeolian dust flux. My box model and GCM results suggest that a global ten fold increase in dust flux can support a phosphate drawdown of 0.25-0.5 micromolar.

Glossary of AWS Acrinabs. Acronyms, Initialisms, and Abbreviations Commonly Used in Air Weather Service

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-01-01

Foundation FYDP ......... Five Year Defense Plan FSI ............ Fog Stability Index 17 G G ................ gravity, giga- GISM ......... Gridded ...Global Circulation Model GOES-TAP GOES imagery processing & dissemination system GCS .......... grid course GOFS ........ Global Ocean Flux Study GD...Analysis Support System Complex Systems GRID .......... Global Resource Information Data -Base GEMAG ..... geomagnetic GRIST..... grazing-incidence solar

Exploring the sensitivity of global ocean circulation to future ice loss from Antarctica

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Condron, Alan

The sensitivity of the global ocean circulation and climate to large increases in iceberg calving and meltwater discharges from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are rarely studied and poorly understood. The requirement to investigate this topic is heightened by growing evidence that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is vulnerable to rapid retreat and collapse on multidecadal-to-centennial timescales. Observations collected over the last 30 years indicate that the WAIS is now losing mass at an accelerated and that a collapse may have already begun in the Amundsen Sea sector. In addition, some recent future model simulations of the AIS showmore » the potential for rapid ice sheet retreat in the next 50 – 300 years. Such a collapse would be associated with the discharge of enormous volumes of ice and meltwater to the Southern Ocean. This project funds PI Condron to begin assessing the sensitivity of the global ocean circulation to projected increases in meltwater discharge and iceberg calving from the AIS for the next 50 – 100 years. A series of climate model simulations will determine changes in ocean circulation and temperature at the ice sheet grounding line, the role of mesoscale ocean eddies in mixing and transporting freshwater away from the continent to deep water formation regions, and the likely impact on the northward transport of heat to Europe and North America.« less

The Regional Water Cycle and Water Ice Clouds in the Tharsis - Valles Marineris System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, C. W. S.; Rafkin, S. C.

2017-12-01

The regional atmospheric circulation on Mars is highly influenced by local topographic gradients. Terrain-following air parcels forced along the slopes of the major Tharsis volcanoes and the steep canyon walls of Valles Marineris significantly impact the local water vapor concentration and the associated conditions for cloud formation. Using a non-hydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric model with aerosol & cloud microphysics, we investigate the meteorological conditions for water ice cloud formation in the coupled Tharsis - Valles Marineris system near the aphelion season. The usage of a limited area regional model ensures that topographic slopes are well resolved compared to the typical resolutions of a global-coverage general circulation model. The effects of shadowing and slope angle geometries on the energy budget is also taken into account. Diurnal slope winds in complex terrains are typically characterized by the reversal of wind direction twice per sol: upslope during the day, and downslope at night. However, our simulation results of the regional circulation and diurnal water cycle indicate substantial asymmetries in the day-night circulation. The convergence of moist air masses enters Valles Marineris via easterly flows, whereas dry air sweep across the plateau of the canyon system from the south towards the north. We emphasize the non-uniform vertical distribution of water vapor in our model results. Water vapor mixing ratios in the lower planetary boundary layer may be factors greater than the mixing ratio aloft. Water ice clouds are important contributors to the climatic forcing on Mars, and their effects on the mesoscale circulations in the Tharsis - Valles Marineris region significantly contribute to the regional perturbations in the large-scale global atmospheric circulation.

Schwarz-Christoffel Conformal Mapping based Grid Generation for Global Oceanic Circulation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Shiming

2015-04-01

We propose new grid generation algorithms for global ocean general circulation models (OGCMs). Contrary to conventional, analytical forms based dipolar or tripolar grids, the new algorithm are based on Schwarz-Christoffel (SC) conformal mapping with prescribed boundary information. While dealing with the conventional grid design problem of pole relocation, it also addresses more advanced issues of computational efficiency and the new requirements on OGCM grids arisen from the recent trend of high-resolution and multi-scale modeling. The proposed grid generation algorithm could potentially achieve the alignment of grid lines to coastlines, enhanced spatial resolution in coastal regions, and easier computational load balance. Since the generated grids are still orthogonal curvilinear, they can be readily 10 utilized in existing Bryan-Cox-Semtner type ocean models. The proposed methodology can also be applied to the grid generation task for regional ocean modeling when complex land-ocean distribution is present.

Change of ocean circulation in the East Asian Marginal Seas under different climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Min, Hong Sik; Kim, Cheol-Ho; Kim, Young Ho

2010-05-01

Global climate models do not properly resolve an ocean environment in the East Asian Marginal Seas (EAMS), which is mainly due to a poor representation of the topography in continental shelf region and a coarse spatial resolution. To examine a possible change of ocean environment under global warming in the EAMS, therefore we used North Pacific Regional Ocean Model. The regional model was forced by atmospheric conditions extracted from the simulation results of the global climate models for the 21st century projected by the IPCC SRES A1B scenario as well as the 20th century. The North Pacific Regional Ocean model simulated a detailed pattern of temperature change in the EAMS showing locally different rising or falling trend under the future climate condition, while the global climate models simulated a simple pattern like an overall increase. Changes of circulation pattern in the EAMS such as an intrusion of warm water into the Yellow Sea as well as the Kuroshio were also well resolved. Annual variations in volume transports through the Taiwan Strait and the Korea Strait under the future condition were simulated to be different from those under present condition. Relative ratio of volume transport through the Soya Strait to the Tsugaru Strait also responded to the climate condition.

Seasonal Variability in Global Eddy Diffusion and the Effect on Thermospheric Neutral Density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilinski, M.; Crowley, G.

2014-12-01

We describe a method for making single-satellite estimates of the seasonal variability in global-average eddy diffusion coefficients. Eddy diffusion values as a function of time between January 2004 and January 2008 were estimated from residuals of neutral density measurements made by the CHallenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and simulations made using the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamics - Global Circulation Model (TIME-GCM). The eddy diffusion coefficient results are quantitatively consistent with previous estimates based on satellite drag observations and are qualitatively consistent with other measurement methods such as sodium lidar observations and eddy-diffusivity models. The eddy diffusion coefficient values estimated between January 2004 and January 2008 were then used to generate new TIME-GCM results. Based on these results, the RMS difference between the TIME-GCM model and density data from a variety of satellites is reduced by an average of 5%. This result, indicates that global thermospheric density modeling can be improved by using data from a single satellite like CHAMP. This approach also demonstrates how eddy diffusion could be estimated in near real-time from satellite observations and used to drive a global circulation model like TIME-GCM. Although the use of global values improves modeled neutral densities, there are some limitations of this method, which are discussed, including that the latitude-dependence of the seasonal neutral-density signal is not completely captured by a global variation of eddy diffusion coefficients. This demonstrates the need for a latitude-dependent specification of eddy diffusion consistent with diffusion observations made by other techniques.

Seasonal variability in global eddy diffusion and the effect on neutral density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilinski, M. D.; Crowley, G.

2015-04-01

We describe a method for making single-satellite estimates of the seasonal variability in global-average eddy diffusion coefficients. Eddy diffusion values as a function of time were estimated from residuals of neutral density measurements made by the Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and simulations made using the thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere electrodynamics global circulation model (TIME-GCM). The eddy diffusion coefficient results are quantitatively consistent with previous estimates based on satellite drag observations and are qualitatively consistent with other measurement methods such as sodium lidar observations and eddy diffusivity models. Eddy diffusion coefficient values estimated between January 2004 and January 2008 were then used to generate new TIME-GCM results. Based on these results, the root-mean-square sum for the TIME-GCM model is reduced by an average of 5% when compared to density data from a variety of satellites, indicating that the fidelity of global density modeling can be improved by using data from a single satellite like CHAMP. This approach also demonstrates that eddy diffusion could be estimated in near real-time from satellite observations and used to drive a global circulation model like TIME-GCM. Although the use of global values improves modeled neutral densities, there are limitations to this method, which are discussed, including that the latitude dependence of the seasonal neutral-density signal is not completely captured by a global variation of eddy diffusion coefficients. This demonstrates the need for a latitude-dependent specification of eddy diffusion which is also consistent with diffusion observations made by other techniques.

The role of global cloud climatologies in validating numerical models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

HARSHVARDHAN

1992-01-01

Global maps of the monthly mean net upward longwave radiation flux at the ocean surface were obtained for April, July, October 1985 and January 1986. These maps were produced by blending information obtained from a combination of general circulation model cloud radiative forcing fields, the top of the atmosphere cloud radiative forcing from ERBE and TOVS profiles and sea surface temperature on ISCCP C1 tapes. The fields are compatible with known meteorological regimes of atmospheric water vapor content and cloudiness. There is a vast area of high net upward longwave radiation flux (greater than 80/sq Wm) in the eastern Pacific Ocean throughout most of the year. Areas of low net upward longwave radiation flux ((less than 40/sq Wm) are the tropical convective regions and extra tropical regions that tend to have persistent low cloud cover.The technique used relies on General Circulation Model simulations and so is subject to some of the uncertainties associated with the model. However, all input information regarding temperature, moisture, and cloud cover is from satellite data having near global coverage. This feature of the procedure alone warrants its consideration for further use in compiling global maps of longwave radiation.

The climatic effects of nuclear war

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turco, R. P.; Toon, O. B.; Ackerman, T. P.; Pollack, J. B.; Sagan, C.

1984-01-01

The effects of various US-USSR nuclear-exchange scenarios on global climate are investigated by means of computer simulations, summarizing the results of Turco et al. (1983) and follow-up studies using 3D global-circulation models. A nuclear-scenario model is used to determine the amounts of dust, smoke, radioactivity, and pyrotoxins generated by a particular type of nuclear exchange (such as a general 5,000-Mt exchange, a 1,000-Mt limited exchange, a 5,000-Mt hard-target counterforce attack, and a 100-Mt attack on cities only): a particle-microphysics model predicts the evolution of the dust and smoke particles; and a radiative-convective climate model estimates the effects of the dust and smoke clouds on the global radiation budget. The findings are presented in graphs, diagrams, and a table. Thick clouds blocking most sunlight over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes for weeks or months and producing ground-temperature reductions of 20-40 C, disruption of global circulation patterns, and rapid spread of clouds to the Southern Hemisphere are among the 'nuclear-winter' effects predicted for the 5,000-Mt baseline case. The catastrophic consequences for plant, animal, and human populations are considered, and the revision of superpower nuclear strategies is urged.

Linking the South Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the Global Monsoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, H.; Dong, S.; Goni, G. J.; Lee, S. K.

2016-02-01

This study tested the hypothesis whether low frequency decadal variability of the South Atlantic meridional heat transport (SAMHT) influences decadal variability of the global monsoons. A multi-century run from a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model is used as basis for the analysis. Our findings indicate that multi-decadal variability of the South Atlantic Ocean plays a key role in modulating atmospheric circulation via interhemispheric changes in Atlantic Ocean heat content. Weaker SAMHT produces anomalous ocean heat divergence over the South Atlantic resulting in negative ocean heat content anomaly about 15 years later. This, in turn, forces a thermally direct anomalous interhemispheric Hadley circulation in the atmosphere, transporting heat from the northern hemisphere (NH) to the southern hemisphere (SH) and moisture from the SH to the NH, thereby intensify (weaken) summer (winter) monsoon in the NH and winter (summer) monsoon in the SH. Results also show that anomalous atmospheric eddies, both transient and stationary, transport heat northward in both hemispheres producing eddy heat flux convergence (divergence) in the NH (SH) around 15-30°, reinforcing the anomalous Hadley circulation. Overall, SAMHT decadal variability leads its atmospheric response by about 15 years, suggesting that the South Atlantic is a potential predictor of global climate variability.

Three dimensional global modeling of atmospheric CO2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fung, I.; Hansen, J.; Rind, D.

1983-01-01

A model was developed to study the prospects of extracting information on carbon dioxide sources and sinks from observed CO2 variations. The approach uses a three dimensional global transport model, based on winds from a 3-D general circulation model (GCM), to advect CO2 noninteractively, i.e., as a tracer, with specified sources and sinks of CO2 at the surface. The 3-D model employed is identified and biosphere, ocean and fossil fuel sources and sinks are discussed. Some preliminary model results are presented.

A three-dimensional multivariate representation of atmospheric variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Žagar, Nedjeljka; Jelić, Damjan; Blaauw, Marten; Jesenko, Blaž

2016-04-01

A recently developed MODES software has been applied to the ECMWF analyses and forecasts and to several reanalysis datasets to describe the global variability of the balanced and inertio-gravity (IG) circulation across many scales by considering both mass and wind field and the whole model depth. In particular, the IG spectrum, which has only recently become observable in global datasets, can be studied simultaneously in the mass field and wind field and considering the whole model depth. MODES is open-access software that performs the normal-mode function decomposition of the 3D global datasets. Its application to the ERA Interim dataset reveals several aspects of the large-scale circulation after it has been partitioned into the linearly balanced and IG components. The global energy distribution is dominated by the balanced energy while the IG modes contribute around 8% of the total wave energy. However, on subsynoptic scales IG energy dominates and it is associated with the main features of tropical variability on all scales. The presented energy distribution and features of the zonally-averaged and equatorial circulation provide a reference for the intercomparison of several reanalysis datasets and for the validation of climate models. Features of the global IG circulation are compared in ERA Interim, MERRA and JRA reanalysis datasets and in several CMIP5 models. Since October 2014 the operational medium-range forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have been analyzed by MODES daily and an online archive of all the outputs is available at http://meteo.fmf.uni-lj.si/MODES. New outputs are made available daily based on the 00 UTC run and subsequent 12-hour forecasts up to 240-hour forecast. In addition to the energy spectra and horizontal circulation on selected levels for the balanced and IG components, the equatorial Kelvin waves are presented in time and space as the most energetic tropical IG modes propagating vertically and along the equator from its main generation regions in the upper troposphere over the Indian and Pacific region. The validation of the 10-day ECMWF forecasts with analyses in the modal space suggests a lack of variability in the tropics in the medium range. Reference: Žagar, N. et al., 2015: Normal-mode function representation of global 3-D data sets: open-access software for the atmospheric research community. Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1169-1195, doi:10.5194/gmd-8-1169-2015 Žagar, N., R. Buizza, and J. Tribbia, 2015: A three-dimensional multivariate modal analysis of atmospheric predictability with application to the ECMWF ensemble. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 4423-4444 The MODES software is available from http://meteo.fmf.uni-lj.si/MODES.

Significant Findings: Seasonal Distributions of Global Ocean Chlorophyll and Nutrients With a Coupled Ocean General Circulation, Biogeochemical, and Radiative Model. 2; Comparisons With Satellite and In Situ Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson W.; Busalacchi, Antonio (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

A coupled ocean general circulation, biogeochemical, and radiative model was constructed to evaluate and understand the nature of seasonal variability of chlorophyll and nutrients in the global oceans. Biogeochemical processes in the model were determined from the influences of circulation and turbulence dynamics, irradiance availability, and the interactions among three functional phytoplankton groups (diatoms, chlorophytes, and picoplankton) and three nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, and silicate). Basin scale (>1000 km) model chlorophyll seasonal distributions were statistically positively correlated with CZCS chlorophyll in 10 of 12 major oceanographic regions, and with SeaWiFS in all 12. Notable disparities in magnitudes occurred, however, in the tropical Pacific, the spring/summer bloom in the Antarctic, autumn in the northern high latitudes, and during the southwest monsoon in the North Indian Ocean. Synoptic scale (100-1000 km) comparisons of satellite and in situ data exhibited broad agreement, although occasional departures were apparent. Model nitrate distributions agreed with in situ data, including seasonal dynamics, except for the equatorial Atlantic. The overall agreement of the model with satellite and in situ data sources indicated that the model dynamics offer a reasonably realistic simulation of phytoplankton and nutrient dynamics on basin and synoptic scales.

Global mean dynamic topography based on GOCE data and Wiener filters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilardoni, Maddalena; Reguzzoni, Mirko; Albertella, Alberta

2015-04-01

A mean dynamic ocean topography (MDT) has been computed by using a GOCE-only gravity model and a given mean sea surface (MSS) obtained from satellite altimetry. Since the used gravity model, i.e. the fifth release of the time-wise solution covering the full mission lifetime, is truncated at a maximum harmonic degree of 280, the obtained MDT has to be consistently filtered. This has been done globally by using the spherical harmonic representation and following a Wiener minimization principle. This global filtering approach is convenient from the computational point of view but requires to have MDT values all over the Earth surface and therefore to fill the continents with fictitious data. The main improvements with respect to the already presented results are in the MDT filling procedure (to guarantee that the global signal has the same covariance of the one over the oceans), in the error modelling of the input MSS and in the error estimation of the filtered MDT and of the corresponding geostrophic velocities. The impact of GOCE data in the ocean circulation global modelling has been assessed by comparing the pattern of the obtained geostrophic currents with those computed by using EGM2008. Comparisons with independent circulation data based on drifters and other MDT models have been also performed with the aim of evaluating the accuracy of the obtained results.

Evaluation of Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment Products on South Florida Nested Simulations with the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

Ocean Model 7:285-322 Halliwell GR Jr, Weisberg RH, Mayer DA (2003) A synthetic float analysis of upper-limb meridional overturning circulation ...encompasses a variety of coastal regions (the broad Southwest Florida shelf, the narrow Atlantic Keys shelf, the shallow Florida Bay, and Biscayne...products. The results indicate that the successful hindcasting of circulation patterns in a coastal area that is characterized by complex topography and

The Double ITCZ Syndrome in GCMs: A Coupled Problem among Convection, Atmospheric and Ocean Circulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, G. J.; Song, X.

2017-12-01

The double ITCZ bias has been a long-standing problem in coupled atmosphere-ocean models. A previous study indicates that uncertainty in the projection of global warming due to doubling of CO2 is closely related to the double ITCZ biases in global climate models. Thus, reducing the double ITCZ biases is not only important to getting the current climate features right, but also important to narrowing the uncertainty in future climate projection. In this work, we will first review the possible factors contributing to the ITCZ problem. Then, we will focus on atmospheric convection, presenting recent progress in alleviating the double ITCZ problem and its sensitivity to details of convective parameterization, including trigger conditions for convection onset, convective memory, entrainment rate, updraft model and closure in the NCAR CESM1. These changes together can result in dramatic improvements in the simulation of ITCZ. Results based on both atmospheric only and coupled simulations with incremental changes of convection scheme will be shown to demonstrate the roles of convection parameterization and coupled interaction between convection, atmospheric circulation and ocean circulation in the simulation of ITCZ.

Optimal satellite sampling to resolve global-scale dynamics in the I-T system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowland, D. E.; Zesta, E.; Connor, H. K.; Pfaff, R. F., Jr.

2016-12-01

The recent Decadal Survey highlighted the need for multipoint measurements of ion-neutral coupling processes to study the pathways by which solar wind energy drives dynamics in the I-T system. The emphasis in the Decadal Survey is on global-scale dynamics and processes, and in particular, mission concepts making use of multiple identical spacecraft in low earth orbit were considered for the GDC and DYNAMIC missions. This presentation will provide quantitative assessments of the optimal spacecraft sampling needed to significantly advance our knowledge of I-T dynamics on the global scale.We will examine storm time and quiet time conditions as simulated by global circulation models, and determine how well various candidate satellite constellations and satellite schemes can quantify the plasma and neutral convection patterns and global-scale distributions of plasma density, neutral density, and composition, and their response to changes in the IMF. While the global circulation models are data-starved, and do not contain all the physics that we might expect to observe with a global-scale constellation mission, they are nonetheless an excellent "starting point" for discussions of the implementation of such a mission. The result will be of great utility for the design of future missions, such as GDC, to study the global-scale dynamics of the I-T system.

Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming.

PubMed

Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

2016-03-22

Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves.

Will surface winds weaken in response to global warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jian; Foltz, Gregory R.; Soden, Brian J.; Huang, Gang; He, Jie; Dong, Changming

2016-12-01

The surface Walker and tropical tropospheric circulations have been inferred to slow down from historical observations and model projections, yet analysis of large-scale surface wind predictions is lacking. Satellite measurements of surface wind speed indicate strengthening trends averaged over the global and tropical oceans that are supported by precipitation and evaporation changes. Here we use corrected anemometer-based observations to show that the surface wind speed has not decreased in the averaged tropical oceans, despite its reduction in the region of the Walker circulation. Historical simulations and future projections for climate change also suggest a near-zero wind speed trend averaged in space, regardless of the Walker cell change. In the tropics, the sea surface temperature pattern effect acts against the large-scale circulation slow-down. For higher latitudes, the surface winds shift poleward along with the eddy-driven mid-latitude westerlies, resulting in a very small contribution to the global change in surface wind speed. Despite its importance for surface wind speed change, the influence of the SST pattern change on global-mean rainfall is insignificant since it cannot substantially alter the global energy balance. As a result, the precipitation response to global warming remains ‘muted’ relative to atmospheric moisture increase. Our results therefore show consistency between projections and observations of surface winds and precipitation.

Evaluating simplistic methods to understand current distributions and forecast distribution changes under climate change scenarios: An example with coypu (Myocastor coypus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Young, Nicholas E; Sheffels, Trevor R.; Carter, Jacoby; Systma, Mark D.; Talbert, Colin

2017-01-01

Invasive species provide a unique opportunity to evaluate factors controlling biogeographic distributions; we can consider introduction success as an experiment testing suitability of environmental conditions. Predicting potential distributions of spreading species is not easy, and forecasting potential distributions with changing climate is even more difficult. Using the globally invasive coypu (Myocastor coypus [Molina, 1782]), we evaluate and compare the utility of a simplistic ecophysiological based model and a correlative model to predict current and future distribution. The ecophysiological model was based on winter temperature relationships with nutria survival. We developed correlative statistical models using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling and biologically relevant climate data with a global extent. We applied the ecophysiological based model to several global circulation model (GCM) predictions for mid-century. We used global coypu introduction data to evaluate these models and to explore a hypothesized physiological limitation, finding general agreement with known coypu distribution locally and globally and support for an upper thermal tolerance threshold. Global circulation model based model results showed variability in coypu predicted distribution among GCMs, but had general agreement of increasing suitable area in the USA. Our methods highlighted the dynamic nature of the edges of the coypu distribution due to climate non-equilibrium, and uncertainty associated with forecasting future distributions. Areas deemed suitable habitat, especially those on the edge of the current known range, could be used for early detection of the spread of coypu populations for management purposes. Combining approaches can be beneficial to predicting potential distributions of invasive species now and in the future and in exploring hypotheses of factors controlling distributions.

Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model: Application for Understanding Preciptation Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The global hydrological cycle is central to climate system interactions and the key to understanding their behavior. Rainfall and its associated precipitation processes are a key link in the hydrologic cycle. Fresh water provided by tropical rainfall and its variability can exert a large impact upon the structure of the upper ocean layer. In addition, approximately two-thirds of the global rain falls in the Tropics, while the associated latent heat release accounts for about three-fourths of the total heat energy for the Earth's atmosphere. Precipitation from convective cloud systems comprises a large portion of tropical heating and rainfall. Furthermore, the vertical distribution of convective latent-heat releases modulates large-scale tropical circulations (e.g., the 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillation), which, in turn, impacts midlatitude weather through teleconnection patterns such as those associated with El Nino. Shifts in these global circulations can result in prolonged periods of droughts and floods, thereby exerting a tremendous impact upon the biosphere and human habitation. And yet, monthly rainfall over the tropical oceans is still not known within a factor of two over large (5 degrees latitude by 5 degrees longitude) areas. Hence, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a joint U.S./Japan space project, can provide a more accurate measurement of rainfall as well as estimate the four-dimensional structure of diabatic heating over the global tropics. The distributions of rainfall and inferred heating can be used to advance our understanding of the global energy and water cycle. In addition, this information can be used for global circulation and climate models for testing and improving their parameterizations.

Impact of lateral boundary conditions on regional analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chikhar, Kamel; Gauthier, Pierre

2017-04-01

Regional and global climate models are usually validated by comparison to derived observations or reanalyses. Using a model in data assimilation results in a direct comparison to observations to produce its own analyses that may reveal systematic errors. In this study, regional analyses over North America are produced based on the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) combined with the variational data assimilation system of the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC). CRCM5 is driven at its boundaries by global analyses from ERA-interim or produced with the global configuration of the CRCM5. Assimilation cycles for the months of January and July 2011 revealed systematic errors in winter through large values in the mean analysis increments. This bias is attributed to the coupling of the lateral boundary conditions of the regional model with the driving data particularly over the northern boundary where a rapidly changing large scale circulation created significant cross-boundary flows. Increasing the time frequency of the lateral driving and applying a large-scale spectral nudging improved significantly the circulation through the lateral boundaries which translated in a much better agreement with observations.

The GISS global climate-middle atmosphere model. II - Model variability due to interactions between planetary waves, the mean circulation and gravity wave drag

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, D.; Suozzo, R.; Balachandran, N. K.

1988-01-01

The variability which arises in the GISS Global Climate-Middle Atmosphere Model on two time scales is reviewed: interannual standard deviations, derived from the five-year control run, and intraseasonal variability as exemplified by statospheric warnings. The model's extratropical variability for both mean fields and eddy statistics appears reasonable when compared with observations, while the tropical wind variability near the stratopause may be excessive possibly, due to inertial oscillations. Both wave 1 and wave 2 warmings develop, with connections to tropospheric forcing. Variability on both time scales results from a complex set of interactions among planetary waves, the mean circulation, and gravity wave drag. Specific examples of these interactions are presented, which imply that variability in gravity wave forcing and drag may be an important component of the variability of the middle atmosphere.

The influence of global sea surface temperature variability on the large-scale land surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyrrell, Nicholas L.; Dommenget, Dietmar; Frauen, Claudia; Wales, Scott; Rezny, Mike

2015-04-01

In global warming scenarios, global land surface temperatures () warm with greater amplitude than sea surface temperatures (SSTs), leading to a land/sea warming contrast even in equilibrium. Similarly, the interannual variability of is larger than the covariant interannual SST variability, leading to a land/sea contrast in natural variability. This work investigates the land/sea contrast in natural variability based on global observations, coupled general circulation model simulations and idealised atmospheric general circulation model simulations with different SST forcings. The land/sea temperature contrast in interannual variability is found to exist in observations and models to a varying extent in global, tropical and extra-tropical bands. There is agreement between models and observations in the tropics but not the extra-tropics. Causality in the land-sea relationship is explored with modelling experiments forced with prescribed SSTs, where an amplification of the imposed SST variability is seen over land. The amplification of to tropical SST anomalies is due to the enhanced upper level atmospheric warming that corresponds with tropical moist convection over oceans leading to upper level temperature variations that are larger in amplitude than the source SST anomalies. This mechanism is similar to that proposed for explaining the equilibrium global warming land/sea warming contrast. The link of the to the dominant mode of tropical and global interannual climate variability, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is found to be an indirect and delayed connection. ENSO SST variability affects the oceans outside the tropical Pacific, which in turn leads to a further, amplified and delayed response of.

Mesoscale Numerical Simulations of the IAS Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mooers, C. N.; Ko, D.

2008-05-01

Real-time nowcasts and forecasts of the IAS circulation have been made for several years with mesoscale resolution using the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) implemented for the IAS. It is commonly called IASNFS and is driven by the lower resolution Global NCOM on the open boundaries, synoptic atmospheric forcing obtained from the Navy Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), and assimilated satellite-derived sea surface height anomalies and sea surface temperature. Here, examples of the model output are demonstrated; e.g., Gulf of Mexico Loop Current eddy shedding events and the meandering Caribbean Current jet and associated eddies. Overall, IASNFS is ready for further analysis, application to a variety of studies, and downscaling to even higher resolution shelf models. Its output fields are available online through NOAA's National Coastal Data Development Center (NCDDC), located at the Stennis Space Center.

The influence of topography on Titan’s atmospheric circulation and hydrologic cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lora, Juan M.; Faulk, Sean; Mitchell, Jonathan

2017-10-01

Titan’s atmospheric circulation is a dominant driver of the global methane hydrologic cycle—producing weather and a seasonal climate cycle—while interactions between the surface and the troposphere strongly constrain regional climates, and contribute to the differentiation between Titan’s low latitude deserts and high latitude lake districts. Yet the influence of surface topography on the atmospheric circulation has only been studied in a few instances, and no published work has investigated the coupling between topographical forcing and Titan’s hydrologic cycle. In this work, we examine the impacts of global topography in the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM), which includes a robust representation of the methane cycle. We focus in particular on the influence of large-scale topographical features on the atmospheric flow, atmospheric moisture transport, and cloud formation. High latitude transient weather systems have previously been identified as important contributors to global atmospheric methane transport, and here we examine whether topographically-forced stationary or quasi-permanent systems are also important, as they are in Earth’s hydrologic cycle.

Objective estimates of mantle 3He in the ocean and implications for constraining the deep ocean circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holzer, Mark; DeVries, Timothy; Bianchi, Daniele; Newton, Robert; Schlosser, Peter; Winckler, Gisela

2017-01-01

Hydrothermal vents along the ocean's tectonic ridge systems inject superheated water and large amounts of dissolved metals that impact the deep ocean circulation and the oceanic cycling of trace metals. The hydrothermal fluid contains dissolved mantle helium that is enriched in 3He relative to the atmosphere, providing an isotopic tracer of the ocean's deep circulation and a marker of hydrothermal sources. This work investigates the potential for the 3He/4He isotope ratio to constrain the ocean's mantle 3He source and to provide constraints on the ocean's deep circulation. We use an ensemble of 11 data-assimilated steady-state ocean circulation models and a mantle helium source based on geographically varying sea-floor spreading rates. The global source distribution is partitioned into 6 regions, and the vertical profile and source amplitude of each region are varied independently to determine the optimal 3He source distribution that minimizes the mismatch between modeled and observed δ3He. In this way, we are able to fit the observed δ3He distribution to within a relative error of ∼15%, with a global 3He source that ranges from 640 to 850 mol yr-1, depending on circulation. The fit captures the vertical and interbasin gradients of the δ3He distribution very well and reproduces its jet-sheared saddle point in the deep equatorial Pacific. This demonstrates that the data-assimilated models have much greater fidelity to the deep ocean circulation than other coarse-resolution ocean models. Nonetheless, the modelled δ3He distributions still display some systematic biases, especially in the deep North Pacific where δ3He is overpredicted by our models, and in the southeastern tropical Pacific, where observed westward-spreading δ3He plumes are not well captured. Sources inferred by the data-assimilated transport with and without isopycnally aligned eddy diffusivity differ widely in the Southern Ocean, in spite of the ability to match the observed distributions of CFCs and radiocarbon for either eddy parameterization.

Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO2.

PubMed

Friend, Andrew D; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rademacher, Tim T; Keribin, Rozenn; Betts, Richard; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B; Dankers, Rutger; Falloon, Pete D; Ito, Akihiko; Kahana, Ron; Kleidon, Axel; Lomas, Mark R; Nishina, Kazuya; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pavlick, Ryan; Peylin, Philippe; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Vuichard, Nicolas; Warszawski, Lila; Wiltshire, Andy; Woodward, F Ian

2014-03-04

Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure and function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven global vegetation models are used to analyze possible responses to future climate simulated by a range of general circulation models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase in global vegetation carbon to 2100, but with substantial variation between vegetation models. For example, at 4 °C of global land surface warming (510-758 ppm of CO2), vegetation carbon increases by 52-477 Pg C (224 Pg C mean), mainly due to CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis. Simulations agree on large regional increases across much of the boreal forest, western Amazonia, central Africa, western China, and southeast Asia, with reductions across southwestern North America, central South America, southern Mediterranean areas, southwestern Africa, and southwestern Australia. Four vegetation models display discontinuities across 4 °C of warming, indicating global thresholds in the balance of positive and negative influences on productivity and biomass. In contrast to previous global vegetation model studies, we emphasize the importance of uncertainties in projected changes in carbon residence times. We find, when all seven models are considered for one representative concentration pathway × general circulation model combination, such uncertainties explain 30% more variation in modeled vegetation carbon change than responses of net primary productivity alone, increasing to 151% for non-HYBRID4 models. A change in research priorities away from production and toward structural dynamics and demographic processes is recommended.

Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO2

PubMed Central

Friend, Andrew D.; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rademacher, Tim T.; Keribin, Rozenn; Betts, Richard; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B.; Dankers, Rutger; Falloon, Pete D.; Ito, Akihiko; Kahana, Ron; Kleidon, Axel; Lomas, Mark R.; Nishina, Kazuya; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pavlick, Ryan; Peylin, Philippe; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Vuichard, Nicolas; Warszawski, Lila; Wiltshire, Andy; Woodward, F. Ian

2014-01-01

Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure and function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven global vegetation models are used to analyze possible responses to future climate simulated by a range of general circulation models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase in global vegetation carbon to 2100, but with substantial variation between vegetation models. For example, at 4 °C of global land surface warming (510–758 ppm of CO2), vegetation carbon increases by 52–477 Pg C (224 Pg C mean), mainly due to CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis. Simulations agree on large regional increases across much of the boreal forest, western Amazonia, central Africa, western China, and southeast Asia, with reductions across southwestern North America, central South America, southern Mediterranean areas, southwestern Africa, and southwestern Australia. Four vegetation models display discontinuities across 4 °C of warming, indicating global thresholds in the balance of positive and negative influences on productivity and biomass. In contrast to previous global vegetation model studies, we emphasize the importance of uncertainties in projected changes in carbon residence times. We find, when all seven models are considered for one representative concentration pathway × general circulation model combination, such uncertainties explain 30% more variation in modeled vegetation carbon change than responses of net primary productivity alone, increasing to 151% for non-HYBRID4 models. A change in research priorities away from production and toward structural dynamics and demographic processes is recommended. PMID:24344265

A Multiyear Dataset of SSM/I-Derived Global Ocean Surface Turbulent Fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Shu-Hsien; Shie, Chung-Lin; Atlas, Robert M.; Ardizzone, Joe; Nelkin, Eric; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The surface turbulent fluxes of momentum, latent heat, and sensible heat over global oceans are essential to weather, climate and ocean problems. Evaporation is a key component of the hydrological cycle and the surface heat budget, while the wind stress is the major forcing for driving the oceanic circulation. The global air-sea fluxes of momentum, latent and sensible heat, radiation, and freshwater (precipitation-evaporation) are the forcing for driving oceanic circulation and, hence, are essential for understanding the general circulation of global oceans. The global air-sea fluxes are required for driving ocean models and validating coupled ocean-atmosphere global models. We have produced a 7.5-year (July 1987-December 1994) dataset of daily surface turbulent fluxes over the global oceans from the Special Sensor microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data. Daily turbulent fluxes were derived from daily data of SSM/I surface winds and specific humidity, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) sea surface temperatures, and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) air-sea temperature differences, using a stability-dependent bulk scheme. The retrieved instantaneous surface air humidity (with a 25-km resolution) validated well with that of the collocated radiosonde observations over the global oceans. Furthermore, the retrieved daily wind stresses and latent heat fluxes were found to agree well with that of the in situ measurements (IMET buoy, RV Moana Wave, and RV Wecoma) in the western Pacific warm pool during the TOGA COARE intensive observing period (November 1992-February 1993). The global distributions of 1988-94 seasonal-mean turbulent fluxes will be presented. In addition, the global distributions of 1990-93 annual-means turbulent fluxes and input variables will be compared with those of UWM/COADS covering the same period. The latter is based on the COADS (comprehensive ocean-atmosphere data set) and is recognized to be one of the best climatological analyses of fluxes derived from ship observations.

OCEAN CIRCULATION. Observing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation yields a decade of inevitable surprises.

PubMed

Srokosz, M A; Bryden, H L

2015-06-19

The importance of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) heat transport for climate is well acknowledged. Climate models predict that the AMOC will slow down under global warming, with substantial impacts, but measurements of ocean circulation have been inadequate to evaluate these predictions. Observations over the past decade have changed that situation, providing a detailed picture of variations in the AMOC. These observations reveal a surprising degree of AMOC variability in terms of the intraannual range, the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle, the interannual changes in strength affecting the ocean heat content, and the decline of the AMOC over the decade, both of the latter two exceeding the variations seen in climate models. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Can the Ocean's Heat Engine Control Horizontal Circulation? Insights From the Caspian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruneau, Nicolas; Zika, Jan; Toumi, Ralf

2017-10-01

We investigate the role of the ocean's heat engine in setting horizontal circulation using a numerical model of the Caspian Sea. The Caspian Sea can be seen as a virtual laboratory—a compromise between realistic global models that are hampered by long equilibration times and idealized basin geometry models, which are not constrained by observations. We find that increases in vertical mixing drive stronger thermally direct overturning and consequent conversion of available potential to kinetic energy. Numerical solutions with water mass structures closest to observations overturn 0.02-0.04 × 106 m3/s (sverdrup) representing the first estimate of Caspian Sea overturning. Our results also suggest that the overturning is thermally forced increasing in intensity with increasing vertical diffusivity. Finally, stronger thermally direct overturning is associated with a stronger horizontal circulation in the Caspian Sea. This suggests that the ocean's heat engine can strongly impact broader horizontal circulations in the ocean.

Ocean Circulation-Cloud Interactions Reduce the Pace of Transient Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trossman, D.; Palter, J. B.; Merlis, T. M.; Huang, Y.; Xia, Y.

2016-12-01

We argue that a substantial fraction of the uncertainty in the cloud radiative feedback during transient climate change may be due to uncertainty in the ocean circulation perturbation. A suite of climate model simulations in which the ocean circulation, the cloud radiative feedback, or a combination of both are held fixed while CO2 doubles, shows that changes in the ocean circulation reduce the amount of transient global warming caused by the radiative cloud feedback. Specifically, a slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) helps to maintain low cloud cover in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. We propose that the AMOC decline increases the meridional SST gradient, strengthening the storm track, its attendant clouds and the amount of shortwave radiation they reflect back to space. If the results of our model were to scale proportionately in the CMIP5 models, whose AMOC decline ranges from 15 to 60% under RCP8.5, then as much as 70% of the intermodel spread in the cloud radiative feedback and 35% of the spread in the transient climate response could possibly stem from the model representations of AMOC decline.

Reduced connection between the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Southern Hemisphere Circulation on interannual timescales under intense global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Tianlei; Guo, Pinwen; Cheng, Jun; Hu, Aixue; Lin, Pengfei; Yu, Yongqiang

2018-03-01

Previous studies show a close relationship between the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation on interannual timescales. In this study, we investigate whether this close relationship will change under intensive greenhouse-gas effect by analyzing simulations under two different climate background states: preindustrial era and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 stabilization from the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4). Results show a significantly reduced relationship under stabilized RCP8.5 climate state, such a less correlated EASM with the sea level pressure in the southern Indian Ocean and the SH branch of local Hadley Cell. Further analysis suggests that the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to this warming leads to a less vigorous northward meridional heat transport, a decreased intertropical temperature contrast in boreal summer, which produces a weaker cross-equatorial Hadley Cell in the monsoonal region and a reduced Interhemispheric Mass Exchange (IME). Since the monsoonal IME acts as a bridge connecting EASM and SH circulation, the reduced IME weakens this connection. By performing freshwater hosing experiment using the Flexible Global Ocean—Atmosphere—Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2), we show a weakened relationship between the EASM and SH circulation as in CCSM4 when AMOC collapses. Our results suggest that a substantially weakened AMOC is the main driver leading to the EASM, which is less affected by SH circulation in the future warmer climate.

Near-inertial Wave Studies using Historical Mooring Records and a High-Resolution General Circulation Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

Mooring Records and a High- Resolution General Circulation Model Harper Simmons School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences 903 Koyukuk Drive Fairbanks AK...oceanographic community has been to develop a global internal wave prediction system analogous to those already in place for surface waves. Early steps have...AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) School of Fisheries and Ocean

Impacts of Large-Scale Circulation on Convection: A 2-D Cloud Resolving Model Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, X; Sui, C.-H.; Lau, K.-M.

1999-01-01

Studies of impacts of large-scale circulation on convection, and the roles of convection in heat and water balances over tropical region are fundamentally important for understanding global climate changes. Heat and water budgets over warm pool (SST=29.5 C) and cold pool (SST=26 C) were analyzed based on simulations of the two-dimensional cloud resolving model. Here the sensitivity of heat and water budgets to different sizes of warm and cold pools is examined.

From global circulation to flood loss: Coupling models across the scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felder, Guido; Gomez-Navarro, Juan Jose; Bozhinova, Denica; Zischg, Andreas; Raible, Christoph C.; Ole, Roessler; Martius, Olivia; Weingartner, Rolf

2017-04-01

The prediction and the prevention of flood losses requires an extensive understanding of underlying meteorological, hydrological, hydraulic and damage processes. Coupled models help to improve the understanding of such underlying processes and therefore contribute the understanding of flood risk. Using such a modelling approach to determine potentially flood-affected areas and damages requires a complex coupling between several models operating at different spatial and temporal scales. Although the isolated parts of the single modelling components are well established and commonly used in the literature, a full coupling including a mesoscale meteorological model driven by a global circulation one, a hydrologic model, a hydrodynamic model and a flood impact and loss model has not been reported so far. In the present study, we tackle the application of such a coupled model chain in terms of computational resources, scale effects, and model performance. From a technical point of view, results show the general applicability of such a coupled model, as well as good model performance. From a practical point of view, such an approach enables the prediction of flood-induced damages, although some future challenges have been identified.

How Stationary Are the Internal Tides in a High-Resolution Global Ocean Circulation Model?

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-12

Egbert et al., 1994] and that the model global internal tide amplitudes compare well with an altimetric-based tidal analysis [Ray and Byrne, 2010]. The... analysis [Foreman, 1977] applied to the HYCOM total SSH. We will follow Shriver et al. [2012], analyzing the tides along satellite altimeter tracks...spots,’’ the comparison between the model and altimetric analysis is not as good due, in part, to two prob- lems, errors in the model barotropic tides and

The NASA/MSFC global reference atmospheric model: 1990 version (GRAM-90). Part 1: Technical/users manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; Alyea, F. N.; Cunnold, D. M.; Jeffries, W. R., III; Johnson, D. L.

1991-01-01

A technical description of the NASA/MSFC Global Reference Atmospheric Model 1990 version (GRAM-90) is presented with emphasis on the additions and new user's manual descriptions of the program operation aspects of the revised model. Some sample results for the new middle atmosphere section and comparisons with results from a three dimensional circulation model are provided. A programmer's manual with more details for those wishing to make their own GRAM program adaptations is also presented.

The Nature of Global Large-scale Sea Level Variability in Relation to Atmospheric Forcing: A Modeling Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fukumori, I.; Raghunath, R.; Fu, L. L.

1996-01-01

The relation between large-scale sea level variability and ocean circulation is studied using a numerical model. A global primitive equaiton model of the ocean is forced by daily winds and climatological heat fluxes corresponding to the period from January 1992 to February 1996. The physical nature of the temporal variability from periods of days to a year, are examined based on spectral analyses of model results and comparisons with satellite altimetry and tide gauge measurements.

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission: Monitoring the Global Tropics for 3 Years and Beyond. 1.1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, Marshall; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) was launched in November 1997 as a joint U.S.-Japanese mission to advance understanding of the global energy and water cycle by providing distributions of rainfall and latent heating over the global tropics. As a part of NASA's Earth System Enterprise, TRMM seeks to understand the mechanisms through which changes in tropical rainfall influence global circulation. Additionally, a goal is to improve the ability to model these processes in order to predict global circulations and rainfall variability at monthly and longer time scales. Such understanding has implications for assessing climate processes related to El Nino/La Nina and Global Warming. TRMM has also provided unexpected and exciting new knowledge and applications in areas related to hurricane monitoring, lightning, pollution, hydrology, and other areas. This CD-ROM includes a self-contained PowerPoint presentation that provides an overview of TRMM and significant science results; a set of data movies or animation; and listings of current TRMM-related publications in the literature.

Atmospheric circulation of brown dwarfs and directly imaged extrasolar giant planets with active clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Xianyu; Showman, Adam

2016-10-01

Observational evidence have suggested active meteorology in the atmospheres of brown dwarfs (BDs) and directly imaged extrasolar giant planets (EGPs). In particular, a number of surveys for brown dwarfs showed that near-IR brightness variability is common for L and T dwarfs. Directly imaged EGPs share similar observations, and can be viewed as low-gravity versions of BDs. Clouds are believed to play the major role in shaping the thermal structure, dynamics and near-IR flux of these atmospheres. So far, only a few studies have been devoted to atmospheric circulation and the implications for observations of BDs and directly EGPs, and yet no global model includes a self-consistent active cloud formation. Here we present preliminary results from the first global circulation model applied to BDs and directly imaged EGPs that can properly treat absorption and scattering of radiation by cloud particles. Our results suggest that horizontal temperature differences on isobars can reach up to a few hundred Kelvins, with typical horizontal length scale of the temperature and cloud patterns much smaller than the radius of the object. The combination of temperature anomaly and cloud pattern can result in moderate disk-integrated near-IR flux variability. Wind speeds can reach several hundred meters per second in cloud forming layers. Unlike Jupiter and Saturn, we do not observe stable zonal jet/banded patterns in our simulations. Instead, our simulated atmospheres are typically turbulent and dominated by transient vortices. The circulation is sensitive to the parameterized cloud microphysics. Under some parameter combinations, global-scale atmospheric waves can be triggered and maintained. These waves induce global-scale temperature anomalies and cloud patterns, causing large (up to several percent) disk-integrated near-IR flux variability. Our results demonstrate that the commonly observed near-IR brightness variability for BDs and directly imaged EGPs can be explained by the typical cloud-induced turbulent circulation, and in particular, the large flux variability for some objects can be attributed to the global-scale patterns of temperature anomaly and cloud formation caused by atmospheric waves.

Thermohaline circulation: a missing equation and its climate-change implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ou, Hsien-Wang

2018-01-01

We formulate a box model of coupled ocean-atmosphere to examine the differential fields interactive with the thermohaline circulation (THC) and their response to global warming. We discern a robust convective bound on the atmospheric heat transport, which would divide the climate regime into warm and cold branches; but unlike the saline mode of previous box models, the cold state, if allowed, has the same-signed—though weaker—density contrast and THC as the present climate, which may explain its emergence from coupled general circulation models. We underscore the nondeterminacy of the THC due to random eddy shedding and apply the fluctuation theorem to constrain the shedding rate, thus closing the problem. The derivation reveals an ocean propelled toward the maximum entropy production (MEP) on millennial timescale (termed "MEP-adjustment"), the long timescale arising from the compounding effect of microscopic fluctuations in the shedding rate and their slight probability bias. Global warming may induce hysteresis between the two branches, like that seen in GCMs, but the cold transition is far more sensitive to the moistening than the heating effects as the latter would be countered by the hydrological feedback. The uni- or bi-modality of the current state—hence whether the THC may recover after the cold transition—depends on the global-mean convective flux and may not be easily assessed due to its observed uncertainty.

A window on the deep ocean: The special value of ocean bottom pressure for monitoring the large-scale, deep-ocean circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Chris W.; Williams, Joanne; Blaker, Adam; Coward, Andrew; Stepanov, Vladimir

2018-02-01

We show how, by focusing on bottom pressure measurements particularly on the global continental slope, it is possible to avoid the "fog" of mesoscale variability which dominates most observables in the deep ocean. This makes it possible to monitor those aspects of the ocean circulation which are most important for global scale ocean variability and climate. We therefore argue that such measurements should be considered an important future component of the Global Ocean Observing System, to complement the present open-ocean and coastal elements. Our conclusions are founded on both theoretical arguments, and diagnostics from a fine-resolution ocean model that has realistic amplitudes and spectra of mesoscale variability. These show that boundary pressure variations are coherent over along-slope distances of tens of thousands of kilometres, for several vertical modes. We illustrate the value of this in the model Atlantic, by determining the time for boundary and equatorial waves to complete a circuit of the northern basin (115 and 205 days for the first and second vertical modes), showing how the boundary features compare with basin-scale theoretical models, and demonstrating the ability to monitor the meridional overturning circulation using these boundary measurements. Finally, we discuss applicability to the real ocean and make recommendations on how to make such measurements without contamination from instrumental drift.

Local and Remote Influences on Vertical Wind Shear over the Northern Tropical Atlantic Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saravanan, R.; Zhu, X.

2009-12-01

Vertical wind shear is one of the most important parameters controlling the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes. It has been argued that in global warming scenarios, the mechanical effect of changing vertical wind shear may even trump the thermodynamic effect of increasing Atlantic sea surface temperatures, when it comes to projected trends in Atlantic hurricane activity. Despite its importance, little is known about the connection between vertical shear in the north Atlantic region and the global atmospheric circulation, apart from the well-known positive correlation with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this study, we analyze the statistical relationship between vertical shear and features of the large-scale circulation such as the distribution of sea surface temperature and vertical motion. We examine whether this relationship is different on interannual timescales associated with ENSO as compared to the decadal timescales associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). We also investigate how well the global general circulation models manage to simulate the observed vertical shear in this region, and its relationship to the large-scale circulation. Our analyses reveal an interesting sensitivity to air-sea coupling in model simulations of vertical shear. Another interesting property of vertical shear, as defined in the context of hurricane studies, is that it is positive definite, rather like precipitation. This means that it has a very nongaussian probability distribution on short timescales. We analyze how this nongaussianity changes when averaged over longer timescales.

Global warming hiatus contributed to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia.

PubMed

Zhao, Jiuwei; Zhan, Ruifen; Wang, Yuqing

2018-04-16

The recent global warming hiatus (GWH) was characterized by a La Niña-like cooling in the tropical Eastern Pacific accompanied with the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming. Here we show that the recent GWH contributed significantly to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia since 1998. The GWH associated sea surface temperature anomalies triggered a pair of anomalous cyclonic and anticyclonic circulations and equatorial easterly anomalies over the Northwest Pacific, which favored TC genesis and intensification over the western Northwest Pacific but suppressed TC genesis and intensification over the southeastern Northwest Pacific due to increased vertical wind shear and anticyclonic circulation anomalies. Results from atmospheric general circulation model experiments demonstrate that the Pacific La Niña-like cooling dominated the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming in contributing to the observed GWH-related anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Northwest Pacific.

On the reduced lifetime of nitrous oxide due to climate change induced acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation as simulated by the MPI Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kracher, D.; Manzini, E.; Reick, C. H.; Schultz, M. G.; Stein, O.

2014-12-01

Greenhouse gas induced climate change will modify the physical conditions of the atmosphere. One of the projected changes is an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation in the stratosphere, as it has been shown in many model studies. This change in the stratospheric circulation consequently bears an effect on the transport and distribution of atmospheric components such as N2O. Since N2O is involved in ozone destruction, a modified distribution of N2O can be of importance for ozone chemistry. N2O is inert in the troposphere and decays only in the stratosphere. Thus, changes in the exchange between troposphere and stratosphere can also affect the stratospheric sink of N2O, and consequently its atmospheric lifetime. N2O is a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential of currently approximately 300 CO2-equivalents in a 100-year perspective. A faster decay in atmospheric N2O mixing ratios, i.e. a decreased atmospheric lifetime of N2O, will also reduce its global warming potential. In order to assess the impact of climate change on atmospheric circulation and implied effects on the distribution and lifetime of atmospheric N2O, we apply the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, MPI-ESM. MPI-ESM consists of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM, the land surface model JSBACH, and MPIOM/HAMOCC representing ocean circulation and ocean biogeochemistry. Prognostic atmospheric N2O concentrations in MPI-ESM are determined by land N2O emissions, ocean-atmosphere N2O exchange and atmospheric tracer transport. As stratospheric chemistry is not explicitly represented in MPI-ESM, stratospheric decay rates of N2O are prescribed from a MACC MOZART simulation. Increasing surface temperatures and CO2 concentrations in the stratosphere impact atmospheric circulation differently. Thus, we conduct a series of transient runs with the atmospheric model of MPI-ESM to isolate different factors governing a shift in atmospheric circulation. From those transient simulations we diagnose decreasing tropospheric N2O concentrations, increased transport of N2O from the troposphere to the stratosphere, and increasing stratospheric decay of N2O leading to a reduction in atmospheric lifetime of N2O, in dependency to climate change evolution.

Idealised modelling of ocean circulation driven by conductive and hydrothermal fluxes at the seabed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, Jowan M.; Morales Maqueda, Miguel A.; Polton, Jeff A.; Megann, Alex P.

2018-02-01

Geothermal heating is increasingly recognised as an important factor affecting ocean circulation, with modelling studies suggesting that this heat source could lead to first-order changes in the formation rate of Antarctic Bottom Water, as well as a significant warming effect in the abyssal ocean. Where it has been represented in numerical models, however, the geothermal heat flux into the ocean is generally treated as an entirely conductive flux, despite an estimated one third of the global geothermal flux being introduced to the ocean via hydrothermal sources. A modelling study is presented which investigates the sensitivity of the geothermally forced circulation to the way heat is supplied to the abyssal ocean. An analytical two-dimensional model of the circulation is described, which demonstrates the effects of a volume flux through the ocean bed. A simulation using the NEMO numerical general circulation model in an idealised domain is then used to partition a heat flux between conductive and hydrothermal sources and explicitly test the sensitivity of the circulation to the formulation of the abyssal heat flux. Our simulations suggest that representing the hydrothermal flux as a mass exchange indeed changes the heat distribution in the abyssal ocean, increasing the advective heat transport from the abyss by up to 35% compared to conductive heat sources. Consequently, we suggest that the inclusion of hydrothermal fluxes can be an important addition to course-resolution ocean models.

Modeling thermospheric neutral density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Liying

Satellite drag prediction requires determination of thermospheric neutral density. The NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM) and the global-mean Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIMEGCM) were used to quantify thermospheric neutral density and its variations, focusing on annual/semiannual variation, the effect of using measured solar irradiance on model calculations of solar-cycle variation, and global change in the thermosphere. Satellite drag data and the MSIS00 empirical model were utilized to compare to the TIEGCM simulations. The TIEGCM simulations indicated that eddy diffusion and its annual/semiannual variation is a mechanism for annual/semiannual density variation in the thermosphere. It was found that eddy diffusion near the turbopause can effectively influence thermospheric neutral density. Eddy diffusion, together with annual insolation variation and large-scale circulation, generated global annual/semiannual density variation observed by satellite drag. Using measured solar irradiance as solar input for the TIEGCM improved the solar-cycle dependency of the density calculation shown in F10.7 -based thermospheric empirical models. It has been found that the empirical models overestimate density at low solar activity. The TIEGCM simulations did not show such solar-cycle dependency. Using historic measurements of CO2 and F 10.7, simulations of the global-mean TIMEGCM showed that thermospheric neutral density at 400 km had an average long-term decrease of 1.7% per decade from 1970 to 2000. A forecast of density decrease for solar cycle 24 suggested that thermospheric density will decrease at 400 km from present to the end of solar cycle 24 at a rate of 2.7% per decade. Reduction in thermospheric density causes less atmospheric drag on earth-orbiting space objects. The implication of this long-term decrease of thermospheric neutral density is that it will increase the lifetime of satellites, but also it will increase the amount of space junk.

A High-Resolution WRF Tropical Channel Simulation Driven by a Global Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holland, G.; Leung, L.; Kuo, Y.; Hurrell, J.

2006-12-01

Since 2003, NCAR has invested in the development and application of Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM) based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Community Climate System Model, as a key component of the Prediction Across Scales Initiative. A prototype tropical channel model has been developed to investigate scale interactions and the influence of tropical convection on large scale circulation and tropical modes. The model was developed based on the NCAR Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), configured as a tropical channel between 30 ° S and 45 ° N, wide enough to allow teleconnection effects over the mid-latitudes. Compared to the limited area domain that WRF is typically applied over, the channel mode alleviates issues with reflection of tropical modes that could result from imposing east/west boundaries. Using a large amount of available computing resources on a supercomputer (Blue Vista) during its bedding in period, a simulation has been completed with the tropical channel applied at 36 km horizontal resolution for 5 years from 1996 to 2000, with large scale circulation provided by the NCEP/NCAR global reanalysis at the north/south boundaries. Shorter simulations of 2 years and 6 months have also been performed to include two-way nests at 12 km and 4 km resolution, respectively, over the western Pacific warm pool, to explicitly resolve tropical convection in the Maritime Continent. The simulations realistically captured the large-scale circulation including the trade winds over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic, the Australian and Asian monsoon circulation, and hurricane statistics. Preliminary analysis and evaluation of the simulations will be presented.

Intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cess, R. D.; Potter, G. L.; Blanchet, J. P.; Boer, G. J.; Del Genio, A. D.

1990-01-01

The present study provides an intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation models. This intercomparison uses sea surface temperature change as a surrogate for climate change. The interpretation of cloud-climate interactions is given special attention. A roughly threefold variation in one measure of global climate sensitivity is found among the 19 models. The important conclusion is that most of this variation is attributable to differences in the models' depiction of cloud feedback, a result that emphasizes the need for improvements in the treatment of clouds in these models if they are ultimately to be used as reliable climate predictors. It is further emphazied that cloud feedback is the consequence of all interacting physical and dynamical processes in a general circulation model. The result of these processes is to produce changes in temperature, moisture distribution, and clouds which are integrated into the radiative response termed cloud feedback.

Hurricane Forecasting with the High-resolution NASA Finite-volume General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atlas, R.; Reale, O.; Shen, B.-W.; Lin, S.-J.; Chern, J.-D.; Putman, W.; Lee, T.; Yeh, K.-S.; Bosilovich, M.; Radakovich, J.

2004-01-01

A high-resolution finite-volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM), resulting from a development effort of more than ten years, is now being run operationally at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and Ames Research Center. The model is based on a finite-volume dynamical core with terrain-following Lagrangian control-volume discretization and performs efficiently on massive parallel architectures. The computational efficiency allows simulations at a resolution of a quarter of a degree, which is double the resolution currently adopted by most global models in operational weather centers. Such fine global resolution brings us closer to overcoming a fundamental barrier in global atmospheric modeling for both weather and climate, because tropical cyclones and even tropical convective clusters can be more realistically represented. In this work, preliminary results of the fvGCM are shown. Fifteen simulations of four Atlantic tropical cyclones in 2002 and 2004 are chosen because of strong and varied difficulties presented to numerical weather forecasting. It is shown that the fvGCM, run at the resolution of a quarter of a degree, can produce very good forecasts of these tropical systems, adequately resolving problems like erratic track, abrupt recurvature, intense extratropical transition, multiple landfall and reintensification, and interaction among vortices.

Study of atmospheric dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcnider, Richard T.; Christy, John R.; Cox, Gregory N.

1993-01-01

In order to better understand the dynamics of the global atmosphere, a data set of precision temperature measurements was developed using the NASA built Microwave Sounding Unit. Modeling research was carried out to validate global model outputs using various satellite data. Idealized flows in a rotating annulus were studied and applied to the general circulation of the atmosphere. Dynamic stratospheric ozone fluctuations were investigated. An extensive bibliography and several reprints are appended.

Interactive influence of the Atlantic and Pacific climates and their contribution to the multidecadal variations of global temperature and precipitation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barcikowska, M. J.; Knutson, T. R.; Zhang, R.

2016-12-01

This study investigates mechanisms and global-scale climate impacts of multidecadal climate variability. Here we show, using observations and CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 model control run, that multidecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may have a profound impact on the thermal- and hydro-climatic changes over the Pacific region. In our model-based analysis we propose a mechanism, which comprises a coupled ocean-atmosphere teleconnection, established through the atmospheric overturning circulation cell between the tropical North Atlantic and tropical Pacific. For example, warming SSTs over the tropical North Atlantic intensify local convection and reinforce subsidence, low-level divergence in the eastern tropical Pacific. This is also accompanied with an intensification of trade winds, cooling and drying anomalies in the tropical central-east Pacific. The derived multidecadal changes, associated with the AMOC, contribute remarkably to the global temperature and precipitation variations. This highlights its potential predictive value. Shown here results suggest a possibility that: 1) recently observed slowdown in global warming may partly originate from internal variability, 2) climate system may be undergoing a transition to a cold AMO phase which could prolong the global slowdown.

Field-wind Distribution and Eruption Columns: Colima Volcano, México.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fonseca, R.; Martin, A. L.; Perez, I.

2006-12-01

Colima Volcano (19º51'N 103º62'W) is characterized by explosive behaviour. Recently this volcano has shown an increase in explosive activity suggesting the possibility of a subplinian event in the next future like the ones occurred in 1818 and 1913. They were characterized by eruptive columns higher than 20 Km. Considering the possibility of a new explosive event we carried out a wind study based on the radiosonde balloon data set (1980-1995) with 15 atmospheric levels. This data set was collected by Global Gridded Upper Air Statistics (GGUAS) of the European Centre for Médium Range Weather Forecast (ECMRWF). The data was processed with a cinematic model for the study of global atmospheric wind circulation. In this model the current function (vorticity) and a potential function (convergency and/or divergency) was calculated with the Poison equation, utilizing a spectral numeric model. Dominant wind direction in January-May and October-December is toward the East with variations to the East/South East. On the contrary during July-September the dominant wind direction is toward the West, South-West, North-East; East and North-East. The fluctuations related to anticyclonic circulation occur in May, July, September and November at the altitude between 5 and 18 Km. The wind model allows identification of the wind horizontal circulation during the whole year at different atmospheric levels. Moreover, the perturbations of the normal circulation have also been identified. These results are applied to an a ash fall map for ash-fall hazard zonification.

Possible implications of global climate change on global lightning distributions and frequencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Price, Colin; Rind, David

1994-01-01

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) is used to study the possible implications of past and future climate change on global lightning frequencies. Two climate change experiments were conducted: one for a 2 x CO2 climate (representing a 4.2 degs C global warming) and one for a 2% decrease in the solar constant (representing a 5.9 degs C global cooling). The results suggest at 30% increase in global lightning activity for the warmer climate and a 24% decrease in global lightning activity for the colder climate. This implies an approximate 5-6% change in global lightning frequencies for every 1 degs C global warming/cooling. Both intracloud and cloud-to-ground frequencies are modeled, with cloud-to-ground lightning frequencies showing larger sensitivity to climate change than intracloud frequencies. The magnitude of the modeled lightning changes depends on season, location, and even time of day.

Monthly mean forecast experiments with the GISS model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Atlas, R. M.; Kuo, E.

1976-01-01

The GISS general circulation model was used to compute global monthly mean forecasts for January 1973, 1974, and 1975 from initial conditions on the first day of each month and constant sea surface temperatures. Forecasts were evaluated in terms of global and hemispheric energetics, zonally averaged meridional and vertical profiles, forecast error statistics, and monthly mean synoptic fields. Although it generated a realistic mean meridional structure, the model did not adequately reproduce the observed interannual variations in the large scale monthly mean energetics and zonally averaged circulation. The monthly mean sea level pressure field was not predicted satisfactorily, but annual changes in the Icelandic low were simulated. The impact of temporal sea surface temperature variations on the forecasts was investigated by comparing two parallel forecasts for January 1974, one using climatological ocean temperatures and the other observed daily ocean temperatures. The use of daily updated sea surface temperatures produced no discernible beneficial effect.

Western Pacific hydroclimate linked to global climate variability over the past two millennia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffiths, Michael L.; Kimbrough, Alena K.; Gagan, Michael K.; Drysdale, Russell N.; Cole, Julia E.; Johnson, Kathleen R.; Zhao, Jian-Xin; Cook, Benjamin I.; Hellstrom, John C.; Hantoro, Wahyoe S.

2016-06-01

Interdecadal modes of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere circulation have a strong influence on global temperature, yet the extent to which these phenomena influence global climate on multicentury timescales is still poorly known. Here we present a 2,000-year, multiproxy reconstruction of western Pacific hydroclimate from two speleothem records for southeastern Indonesia. The composite record shows pronounced shifts in monsoon rainfall that are antiphased with precipitation records for East Asia and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. These meridional and zonal patterns are best explained by a poleward expansion of the Australasian Intertropical Convergence Zone and weakening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) between ~1000 and 1500 CE Conversely, an equatorward contraction of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and strengthened PWC occurred between ~1500 and 1900 CE. Our findings, together with climate model simulations, highlight the likelihood that century-scale variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature.

Coupled fvGCM-GCE Modeling System, 3D Cloud-Resolving Model and Cloud Library

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2005-01-01

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional singlecolumn models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from Merent geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloudscale model (termed a super-parameterization or multiscale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameteridon NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. A seed fund is available at NASA Goddard to build a MMF based on the 2D Goddard cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM). A prototype MMF in being developed and production nms will be conducted at the beginning of 2005. In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes, (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), (3) A cloud library generated by Goddard MMF, and 3D GCE model, and (4) A brief discussion on the GCE model on developing a global cloud simulator.

Practical global oceanic state estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wunsch, Carl; Heimbach, Patrick

2007-06-01

The problem of oceanographic state estimation, by means of an ocean general circulation model (GCM) and a multitude of observations, is described and contrasted with the meteorological process of data assimilation. In practice, all such methods reduce, on the computer, to forms of least-squares. The global oceanographic problem is at the present time focussed primarily on smoothing, rather than forecasting, and the data types are unlike meteorological ones. As formulated in the consortium Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO), an automatic differentiation tool is used to calculate the so-called adjoint code of the GCM, and the method of Lagrange multipliers used to render the problem one of unconstrained least-squares minimization. Major problems today lie less with the numerical algorithms (least-squares problems can be solved by many means) than with the issues of data and model error. Results of ongoing calculations covering the period of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment, and including among other data, satellite altimetry from TOPEX/POSEIDON, Jason-1, ERS- 1/2, ENVISAT, and GFO, a global array of profiling floats from the Argo program, and satellite gravity data from the GRACE mission, suggest that the solutions are now useful for scientific purposes. Both methodology and applications are developing in a number of different directions.

Basic Features of Global Circulation in the Mesopause Lower Thermosphere Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Portnyagin, Y. I.

1984-01-01

D1 and D2 techniques have been used and are being used for observations at stations located in the high, middle, and low latitudes of both hemispheres. The systematical and wind velocity measurements with these techniques make it possible to specify and to refine earlier mesopause-lower thermosphere circulation models. With this in view, an effort was made to obtain global long term average height-latitude sections of the wind field at 70 to 110 km using the analysis of long period D1 and D2 observations. Data from 26 meteor radar and 6 ionospheric stations were taken for analysis.

[Neuroprotective properties of pyroglutamic acid in combination with pyrrolidone].

PubMed

Lun'shina, E V; Gan'shina, T S; Makarova, L M; Pogorelyĭ, V E; Mirzoian, R S

2003-01-01

A new drug composition containing pyroglutamic acid and pyrrolidone produces a significant effect on the cerebral circulation in rats with global recurrent brain ischemia and in a model ischemic state under high radial gravitational overload. In the former case, the new drug increases the blood circulation in rats with the global ischemic damage to a greater extent than in the intact control group. Pretreatment with the pyroglutamic acid--pyrrolidone composition produced a 2-2.5-fold increase in the survival of rats in the ischemic state caused by the radial gravitational overload. The data obtained show evidence of a substantial neuroprotector action of the new drug composition.

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2000 Version (Mars-GRAM 2000): Users Guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; James, B. F.

2000-01-01

This report presents Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2000 Version (Mars-GRAM 2000) and its new features. All parameterizations for temperature, pressure, density, and winds versus height, latitude, longitude, time of day, and L(sub s) have been replaced by input data tables from NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) for the surface through 80-km altitude and the University of Arizona Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model (MTGCM) for 80 to 170 km. A modified Stewart thermospheric model is still used for higher altitudes and for dependence on solar activity. "Climate factors" to tune for agreement with GCM data are no longer needed. Adjustment of exospheric temperature is still an option. Consistent with observations from Mars Global Surveyor, a new longitude-dependent wave model is included with user input to specify waves having 1 to 3 wavelengths around the planet. A simplified perturbation model has been substituted for the earlier one. An input switch allows users to select either East or West longitude positive. This memorandum includes instructions on obtaining Mars-GRAM source code and data files and for running the program. It also provides sample input and output and an example for incorporating Mars-GRAM as an atmospheric subroutine in a trajectory code.

Robust Hadley Circulation changes and increasing global dryness due to CO2 warming from CMIP5 model projections.

PubMed

Lau, William K M; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2015-03-24

In this paper, we investigate changes in the Hadley Circulation (HC) and their connections to increased global dryness (suppressed rainfall and reduced tropospheric relative humidity) under CO2 warming from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model projections. We find a strengthening of the HC manifested in a "deep-tropics squeeze" (DTS), i.e., a deepening and narrowing of the convective zone, enhanced ascent, increased high clouds, suppressed low clouds, and a rise of the level of maximum meridional mass outflow in the upper troposphere (200-100 hPa) of the deep tropics. The DTS induces atmospheric moisture divergence and reduces tropospheric relative humidity in the tropics and subtropics, in conjunction with a widening of the subsiding branches of the HC, resulting in increased frequency of dry events in preferred geographic locations worldwide. Among various water-cycle parameters examined, global dryness is found to have the highest signal-to-noise ratio. Our results provide a physical basis for inferring that greenhouse warming is likely to contribute to the observed prolonged droughts worldwide in recent decades.

Topex/Poseidon: A United States/France mission. Oceanography from space: The oceans and climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1992-01-01

The TOPEX/POSEIDON space mission, sponsored by NASA and France's space agency, the Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES), will give new observations of the Earth from space to gain a quantitative understanding of the role of ocean currents in climate change. Rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other 'greenhouse gases' produced as a result of human activities could generate a global warming, followed by an associated rise in sea level. The satellite will use radar altimetry to measure sea-surface height and will be tracked by three independent systems to yield accurate topographic maps over the dimensions of entire ocean basins. The satellite data, together with the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program and the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) measurements, will be analyzed by an international scientific team. By merging the satellite observations with TOGA and WOCE findings, the scientists will establish the extensive data base needed for the quantitative description and computer modeling of ocean circulation. The ocean models will eventually be coupled with atmospheric models to lay the foundation for predictions of global climate change.

HESS Opinions "Should we apply bias correction to global and regional climate model data?"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehret, U.; Zehe, E.; Wulfmeyer, V.; Warrach-Sagi, K.; Liebert, J.

2012-04-01

Despite considerable progress in recent years, output of both Global and Regional Circulation Models is still afflicted with biases to a degree that precludes its direct use, especially in climate change impact studies. This is well known, and to overcome this problem bias correction (BC), i.e. the correction of model output towards observations in a post processing step for its subsequent application in climate change impact studies has now become a standard procedure. In this paper we argue that bias correction, which has a considerable influence on the results of impact studies, is not a valid procedure in the way it is currently used: it impairs the advantages of Circulation Models which are based on established physical laws by altering spatiotemporal field consistency, relations among variables and by violating conservation principles. Bias correction largely neglects feedback mechanisms and it is unclear whether bias correction methods are time-invariant under climate change conditions. Applying bias correction increases agreement of Climate Model output with observations in hind casts and hence narrows the uncertainty range of simulations and predictions without, however, providing a satisfactory physical justification. This is in most cases not transparent to the end user. We argue that this masks rather than reduces uncertainty, which may lead to avoidable forejudging of end users and decision makers. We present here a brief overview of state-of-the-art bias correction methods, discuss the related assumptions and implications, draw conclusions on the validity of bias correction and propose ways to cope with biased output of Circulation Models in the short term and how to reduce the bias in the long term. The most promising strategy for improved future Global and Regional Circulation Model simulations is the increase in model resolution to the convection-permitting scale in combination with ensemble predictions based on sophisticated approaches for ensemble perturbation. With this article, we advocate communicating the entire uncertainty range associated with climate change predictions openly and hope to stimulate a lively discussion on bias correction among the atmospheric and hydrological community and end users of climate change impact studies.

General Circulation Model Simulations of the Annual Cycle of Martian Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R.; Richardson, M.; Rodin, A.

Observations of the martian atmosphere have revealed a strong annual modulation of global mean atmospheric temperature that has been attributed to the pronounced seasonal asymmetry in solar radiation and the highly variable distribution of aerosol. These observations indicate little interannual variability during the relatively cool aphelion season and considerable variability in the perihelion season that is associated with the episodic occurrence of regional and major dust storms. The atmospheric circulation responds to the evolving spatial distribution of aerosol-induced heating and, in turn, plays a major role in determining the sources, sinks, and transport of radiatively active aerosol. We will present simulations employing the GFDL Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) that show that aspects of the seasonally evolving climate may be simulated in a self-consistent manner using simple dust source parameterizations that represent the effects of lifting associated with local dust storms, dust devil activity, and other processes. Aerosol transport is accomplished, in large part, by elements of the large-scale circulation such as the Hadley circulation, baroclinic storms, tides, etc. A seasonal cycle of atmospheric opacity and temperature results from the variation in the strength and distribution of dust sources as well as from seasonal variations in the efficiency of atmospheric transport associated with changes in the circulation between solstice and equinox, and between perihelion and aphelion. We examine the efficiency of atmospheric transport of dust lifted along the perimeter of the polar caps to gauge the influence of these storms on the global circulation. We also consider the influence of water, as the formation of water ice clouds on dust nuclei may also affect the vertical distribution of dust and strongly influence the aerosol radiative properties.

Robust Hadley Circulation Changes and Increasing Global Dryness Due to CO2 Warming from CMIP-5 Model Projections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, K. M.

2015-01-01

In this paper, we investigate changes in the Hadley Circulation (HC) and their connections to increased global dryness under CO2 warming from CMIP-5 model projections. We find a strengthening of the ascending branch of the HC manifested in a deep-tropics squeeze (DTS), i.e., a deepening and narrowing of the convective zone, increased high clouds, and a rise of the level of maximum meridional mass outflow in the upper troposphere (200-100 hectopascals) of the deep tropics. The DTS induces atmospheric moisture divergence, reduces tropospheric relative humidity in the tropics and subtropics, in conjunction with a widening of the subsiding branches of the HC, resulting in increased frequency of dry events in preferred geographic locations worldwide. Among water cycle parameters examined, global dryness has the highest signal-to-noise ratio. Our results provide scientific bases for inferring that the observed tend of prolonged droughts in recent decades is likely attributable to greenhouse warming.

A High-Resolution Model of Water Mass Transformation and Transport in the Weddell Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazel, J.; Stewart, A.

2016-12-01

The ocean circulation around the Antarctic margins has a pronounced impact on the global ocean and climate system. One of these impacts includes closing the global meridional overturning circulation (MOC) via formation of dense Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), which ventilates a large fraction of the subsurface ocean. AABW is also partially composed of modified Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW), a warm, mid-depth water mass whose transport towards the continent has the potential to induce rapid retreat of marine-terminating glaciers. Previous studies suggest that these water mass exchanges may be strongly influenced by high-frequency processes such as downslope gravity currents, tidal flows, and mesoscale/submesoscale eddy transport. However, evaluating the relative contributions of these processes to near-Antarctic water mass transports is hindered by the region's relatively small scales of motion and the logistical difficulties in taking measurements beneath sea ice.In this study we develop a regional model of the Weddell Sea, the largest established source of AABW. The model is forced by an annually-repeating atmospheric state constructed from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System data and by annually-repeating lateral boundary conditions constructed from the Southern Ocean State Estimate. The model incorporates the full Filchner-Ronne cavity and simulates the thermodynamics and dynamics of sea ice. To analyze the role of high-frequency processes in the transport and transformation of water masses, we compute the model's overturning circulation, water mass transformations, and ice sheet basal melt at model horizontal grid resolutions ranging from 1/2 degree to 1/24 degree. We temporally decompose the high-resolution (1/24 degree) model circulation into components due to mean, eddy and tidal flows and discuss the geographical dependence of these processes and their impact on water mass transformation and transport.

Observed variations in U.S. frost timing linked to atmospheric circulation patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strong, Courtenay; McCabe, Gregory J.

2017-05-01

Several studies document lengthening of the frost-free season within the conterminous United States (U.S.) over the past century, and report trends in spring and fall frost timing that could stem from hemispheric warming. In the absence of warming, theory and case studies link anomalous frost timing to atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, recent efforts to relate a century of observed changes in U.S. frost timing to various atmospheric circulations yielded only modest correlations, leaving the relative importance of circulation and warming unclear. Here, we objectively partition the U.S. into four regions and uncover atmospheric circulations that account for 25-48% of spring and fall-frost timing. These circulations appear responsive to historical warming, and they consistently account for more frost timing variability than hemispheric or regional temperature indices. Reliable projections of future variations in growing season length depend on the fidelity of these circulation patterns in global climate models.

Observed variations in U.S. frost timing linked to atmospheric circulation patterns

USGS Publications Warehouse

Strong, Courtenay; McCabe, Gregory J.

2017-01-01

Several studies document lengthening of the frost-free season within the conterminous United States (U.S.) over the past century, and report trends in spring and fall frost timing that could stem from hemispheric warming. In the absence of warming, theory and case studies link anomalous frost timing to atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, recent efforts to relate a century of observed changes in U.S. frost timing to various atmospheric circulations yielded only modest correlations, leaving the relative importance of circulation and warming unclear. Here, we objectively partition the U.S. into four regions and uncover atmospheric circulations that account for 25–48% of spring and fall-frost timing. These circulations appear responsive to historical warming, and they consistently account for more frost timing variability than hemispheric or regional temperature indices. Reliable projections of future variations in growing season length depend on the fidelity of these circulation patterns in global climate models.

Observed variations in U.S. frost timing linked to atmospheric circulation patterns.

PubMed

Strong, Courtenay; McCabe, Gregory J

2017-05-23

Several studies document lengthening of the frost-free season within the conterminous United States (U.S.) over the past century, and report trends in spring and fall frost timing that could stem from hemispheric warming. In the absence of warming, theory and case studies link anomalous frost timing to atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, recent efforts to relate a century of observed changes in U.S. frost timing to various atmospheric circulations yielded only modest correlations, leaving the relative importance of circulation and warming unclear. Here, we objectively partition the U.S. into four regions and uncover atmospheric circulations that account for 25-48% of spring and fall-frost timing. These circulations appear responsive to historical warming, and they consistently account for more frost timing variability than hemispheric or regional temperature indices. Reliable projections of future variations in growing season length depend on the fidelity of these circulation patterns in global climate models.

Hydrographic biases in global coupled climate models and their relation to the meridional overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plancherel, Yves

2015-01-01

Comparison of the volumetric θ/S distribution of models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) indicates that these models differ widely in their ability to represent the thermohaline properties of water masses. Relationships between features of the quasi-equilibrium hydrographic mean state of these models and aspects of their overturning circulations are investigated. This is achieved quantitatively with the help of seven diagnostic hydrographic stations. These few stations were specifically selected to provide a minimalist schematic of the global water mass system. Relationships between hydrographic conditions in the North Atlantic measured with a subset of these stations suggest that hydrographic properties in the subpolar North Atlantic are set by the circulation field of each model, pointing towards deficiencies in the models ability to resolve the Gulf Stream-North Atlantic Current system as a major limitation. Since diapycnal mixing and viscosity parameterizations differ across CMIP3 models and exert a strong control on the overturning, it is likely that these architectural differences ultimately explain the main across-model differences in overturning circulation, temperature and salinity in the North Atlantic. The analysis of properties across the quasi-equilibrium states of the CMIP3 models agrees with previously reported relationships between meridional steric height gradients or horizontal density contrasts at depth and the strength of the deep water cell. Robust relationships are also found in the Southern Ocean linking measures of vertical stratification with the strength of the abyssal circulations across the CMIP3 models. Consistent correlations between aspects of the quasi-equilibrium hydrography in the Southern Ocean and the sensitivity of the abyssal cell to increasing radiative forcing by 2100 were found. Using these relations in conjunction with modern hydrographic observations to interpolate the fate of the abyssal cell suggests that the Southern abyssal cell may decrease by roughly 20 % by the end of the century. Similar systematic relationships between the quasi-equilibrium hydrographic states of the models and the sensitivity of their Atlantic deep water cell could not be found.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pipin, V. V.; Kosovichev, A. G.

Recent helioseismology findings, as well as advances in direct numerical simulations of global dynamics of the Sun, have indicated that in each solar hemisphere meridional circulation may form more than one cell along the radius in the convection zone. In particular, recent helioseismology results revealed a double-cell structure of the meridional circulation. We investigate properties of a mean-field solar dynamo with such double-cell meridional circulation. The dynamo model also includes the realistic profile of solar differential rotation (including the tachocline and subsurface shear layer) and takes into account effects of turbulent pumping, anisotropic turbulent diffusivity, and conservation of magnetic helicity.more » Contrary to previous flux-transport dynamo models, we find that the dynamo model can robustly reproduce the basic properties of the solar magnetic cycles for a wide range of model parameters and circulation speeds. The best agreement with observations is achieved when the surface meridional circulation speed is about 12 m s{sup –1}. For this circulation speed, the simulated sunspot activity shows good synchronization with the polar magnetic fields. Such synchronization was indeed observed during previous sunspot Cycles 21 and 22. We compare theoretical and observed phase diagrams of the sunspot number and the polar field strength and discuss the peculiar properties of Cycle 23.« less

Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming

PubMed Central

Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

2016-01-01

Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves. PMID:26951654

Modeling the QBO and SAO Driven by Gravity Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Chan, K. L.; Porter, H. S.

1999-01-01

Hines' Doppler spread parameterization (DSP) for small scale gravity waves (GW) is applied in a global scale numerical spectral model (NSM) to describe the semi-annual and quasi-biennial oscillations (SAO and QBO) as well as the long term interannual variations that are driven by wave mean flow interactions. This model has been successful in simulating the salient features observed near the equator at altitudes above 20 km, including the QBO extension into the upper mesosphere inferred from UARS measurements. The model has now been extended to describe also the mean zonal and meridional circulations of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere that affect the equatorial QBO and its global scale extension. This is accomplished in part through tuning of the GW parameterization, and preliminary results lead to the following conclusions: (1) To reproduce the upwelling at equatorial latitudes associated with the Brewer/Dobson circulation that in part is modulated in the model by the vertical component of the Coriolis force, the eddy diffusivity in the lower stratosphere had to be enhanced and the related GW spectrum modified to bring it in closer agreement with the form recommended for the DSP. (2) To compensate for the required increase in the diffusivity, the observed QBO requires a larger GW source that is closer to the middle of the range recommended for the DSP. (3) Through global scale momentum redistribution, the above developments are conducive to extending the QBO and SAO oscillations to higher latitudes. Multi-year interannual oscillations are generated through wave filtering by the solar driven annual oscillation in the zonal circulation. (4) In a 3D version of the model, wave momentum is absorbed and dissipated by tides and planetary waves. Thus, a somewhat larger GW source is required to generate realistic amplitudes for the QBO and SAO.

A Variable-Resolution Stretched-Grid General Circulation Model and Data Assimilation System with Multiple Areas of Interest: Studying the Anomalous Regional Climate Events of 1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.; Takacs, Lawrence; Govindaraju, Ravi C.; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The new stretched-grid design with multiple (four) areas of interest, one at each global quadrant, is implemented into both a stretched-grid GCM (general circulation model) and a stretched-grid data assimilation system (DAS). The four areas of interest include: the U.S./Northern Mexico, the El Nino area/Central South America, India/China, and the Eastern Indian Ocean/Australia. Both the stretched-grid GCM and DAS annual (November 1997 through December 1998) integrations are performed with 50 km regional resolution. The efficient regional down-scaling to mesoscales is obtained for each of the four areas of interest while the consistent interactions between regional and global scales and the high quality of global circulation, are preserved. This is the advantage of the stretched-grid approach. The global variable resolution DAS incorporating the stretched-grid GCM has been developed and tested as an efficient tool for producing regional analyses and diagnostics with enhanced mesoscale resolution. The anomalous regional climate events of 1998 that occurred over the U.S., Mexico, South America, China, India, African Sahel, and Australia are investigated in both simulation and data assimilation modes. Tree assimilated products are also used, along with gauge precipitation data, for validating the simulation results. The obtained results show that the stretched-grid GCM and DAS are capable of producing realistic high quality simulated and assimilated products at mesoscale resolution for regional climate studies and applications.

Meridional Circulation Dynamics from 3D Magnetohydrodynamic Global Simulations of Solar Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passos, Dário; Charbonneau, Paul; Miesch, Mark

2015-02-01

The form of solar meridional circulation is a very important ingredient for mean field flux transport dynamo models. However, a shroud of mystery still surrounds this large-scale flow, given that its measurement using current helioseismic techniques is challenging. In this work, we use results from three-dimensional global simulations of solar convection to infer the dynamical behavior of the established meridional circulation. We make a direct comparison between the meridional circulation that arises in these simulations and the latest observations. Based on our results, we argue that there should be an equatorward flow at the base of the convection zone at mid-latitudes, below the current maximum depth helioseismic measures can probe (0.75 {{R}⊙ }). We also provide physical arguments to justify this behavior. The simulations indicate that the meridional circulation undergoes substantial changes in morphology as the magnetic cycle unfolds. We close by discussing the importance of these dynamical changes for current methods of observation which involve long averaging periods of helioseismic data. Also noteworthy is the fact that these topological changes indicate a rich interaction between magnetic fields and plasma flows, which challenges the ubiquitous kinematic approach used in the vast majority of mean field dynamo simulations.

The Errors Sources Affect to the Results of One-Way Nested Ocean Regional Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, S. V.

2016-02-01

Pham-Van Sy1, Jin Hwan Hwang2 and Hyeyun Ku3 Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University, KoreaEmail: 1phamsymt@gmail.com (Corresponding author) Email: 2jinhwang@snu.ac.krEmail: 3hyeyun.ku@gmail.comAbstractThe Oceanic Regional Circulation Model (ORCM) is an essential tool in resolving highly a regional scale through downscaling dynamically the results from the roughly revolved global model. However, when dynamic downscaling from a coarse resolution of the global model or observations to the small scale, errors are generated due to the different sizes of resolution and lateral updating frequency. This research evaluated the effect of four main sources on the results of the ocean regional circulation model (ORCMs) during downscaling and nesting the output data from the ocean global circulation model (OGCMs). Representative four error sources should be the way of the LBC formulation, the spatial resolution difference between driving and driven data, the frequency for up-dating LBCs and domain size. Errors which are contributed from each error source to the results of the ORCMs are investigated separately by applying the Big-Brother Experiment (BBE). Within resolution of 3km grid point of the ORCMs imposing in the BBE framework, it clearly exposes that the simulation results of the ORCMs significantly depend on the domain size and specially the spatial and temporal resolution of lateral boundary conditions (LBCs). The ratio resolution of spatial resolution between driving data and driven model could be up to 3, the updating frequency of the LBCs can be up to every 6 hours per day. The optimal domain size of the ORCMs could be smaller than the OGCMs' domain size around 2 to 10 times. Key words: ORCMs, error source, lateral boundary conditions, domain size Acknowledgement: This research was supported by grants from the Korean Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries entitled as "Developing total management system for the Keum river estuary and coast" and "Development of Technology for CO2 Marine Geological Storage". We also thank to the administrative supports of the Integrated Research Institute of Construction and Environmental Engineering of the Seoul National University.

Description and Evaluation of IAP-AACM: A Global-regional Aerosol Chemistry Model for the Earth System Model CAS-ESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Y.; Chen, X.

2017-12-01

We present a first description and evaluation of the IAP Atmospheric Aerosol Chemistry Model (IAP-AACM) which has been integrated into the earth system model CAS-ESM. In this way it is possible to research into interaction of clouds and aerosol by its two-way coupling with the IAP Atmospheric General Circulation Model (IAP-AGCM). The model has a nested global-regional grid based on the Global Environmental Atmospheric Transport Model (GEATM) and the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS). The AACM provides two optional gas chemistry schemes, the CBM-Z gas chemistry as well as a sulfur oxidize box designed specifically for the CAS-ESM. Now the model driven by AGCM has been applied to a 1-year simulation of tropospheric chemistry both on global and regional scales for 2014, and been evaluated against various observation datasets, including aerosol precursor gas concentration, aerosol mass and number concentrations. Furthermore, global budgets in AACM are compared with other global aerosol models. Generally, the AACM simulations are within the range of other global aerosol model predictions, and the model has a reasonable agreement with observations of gases and particles concentration both on global and regional scales.

An aftereffect of global warming on tropical Pacific decadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Jian; Liu, Qinyu; Wang, Chuanyang

2018-03-01

Studies have shown that global warming over the past six decades can weaken the tropical Pacific Walker circulation and maintain the positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Based on observations and model simulations, another aftereffect of global warming on IPO is found. After removing linear trends (global warming signals) from observations, however, the tropical Pacific climate still exhibited some obvious differences between two IPO negative phases. The boreal winter (DJF) equatorial central-eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) was colder during the 1999-2014 period (P2) than that during 1961-1976 (P1). This difference may have been a result of global warming nonlinear modulation of precipitation; i.e., in the climatological rainy region, the core area of the tropical Indo-western Pacific warm pool receives more precipitation through the "wet-get-wetter" mechanism. Positive precipitation anomalies in the warm pool during P2 are much stronger than those during P1, even after subtracting the linear trend. Corresponding to the differences of precipitation, the Pacific Walker circulation is stronger in P2 than in P1. Consequent easterly winds over the equatorial Pacific led to a colder equatorial eastern-central Pacific during P2. Therefore, tropical Pacific climate differences between the two negative IPO phases are aftereffects of global warming. These aftereffects are supported by the results of coupled climate model experiments, with and without global warming.

Does Southern Ocean Surface Forcing Shape the Global Ocean Overturning Circulation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Shantong; Eisenman, Ian; Stewart, Andrew L.

2018-03-01

Paleoclimate proxy data suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) was shallower at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) than its preindustrial (PI) depth. Previous studies have suggested that this shoaling necessarily accompanies Antarctic sea ice expansion at the LGM. Here the influence of Southern Ocean surface forcing on the AMOC depth is investigated using ocean-only simulations from a state-of-the-art climate model with surface forcing specified from the output of previous coupled PI and LGM simulations. In contrast to previous expectations, we find that applying LGM surface forcing in the Southern Ocean and PI surface forcing elsewhere causes the AMOC to shoal only about half as much as when LGM surface forcing is applied globally. We show that this occurs because diapycnal mixing renders the Southern Ocean overturning circulation more diabatic than previously assumed, which diminishes the influence of Southern Ocean surface buoyancy forcing on the depth of the AMOC.

Newer classification and regression tree techniques: Bagging and Random Forests for ecological prediction

Treesearch

Anantha M. Prasad; Louis R. Iverson; Andy Liaw; Andy Liaw

2006-01-01

We evaluated four statistical models - Regression Tree Analysis (RTA), Bagging Trees (BT), Random Forests (RF), and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) - for predictive vegetation mapping under current and future climate scenarios according to the Canadian Climate Centre global circulation model.

On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming.

PubMed

Nowack, Peer J; Braesicke, Peter; Luke Abraham, N; Pyle, John A

2017-04-28

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, state-of-the-art climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. The potential role of atmospheric ozone changes in this context has not been explored before. Here we show that differences between typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations. The vertical temperature gradient of the tropical middle-to-upper troposphere adjusts to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, modifying the Walker circulation and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. We show that neglecting ozone changes thus results in a significant increase in the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. We therefore highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability.

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2001 Version (Mars-GRAM 2001): Users Guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; Johnson, D. L.

2001-01-01

This document presents Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2001 Version (Mars-GRAM 2001) and its new features. As with the previous version (mars-2000), all parameterizations fro temperature, pressure, density, and winds versus height, latitude, longitude, time of day, and season (Ls) use input data tables from NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) for the surface through 80-km altitude and the University of Arizona Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model (MTGCM) for 80 to 70 km. Mars-GRAM 2001 is based on topography from the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) and includes new MGCM data at the topographic surface. A new auxiliary program allows Mars-GRAM output to be used to compute shortwave (solar) and longwave (thermal) radiation at the surface and top of atmosphere. This memorandum includes instructions on obtaining Mars-GRAN source code and data files and for running the program. It also provides sample input and output and an example for incorporating Mars-GRAM as an atmospheric subroutine in a trajectory code.

The impact of oceanic heat transport on the atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucarini, Valerio; Lunkeit, Frank

2017-04-01

A general circulation model of intermediate complexity with an idealized Earth-like aquaplanet setup is used to study the impact of changes in the oceanic heat transport on the global atmospheric circulation. Focus is on the atmospheric mean meridional circulation and global thermodynamic properties. The atmosphere counterbalances to a large extent the imposed changes in the oceanic heat transport, but, nonetheless, significant modifications to the atmospheric general circulation are found. Increasing the strength of the oceanic heat transport up to 2.5 PW leads to an increase in the global mean near-surface temperature and to a decrease in its equator-to-pole gradient. For stronger transports, the gradient is reduced further, but the global mean remains approximately constant. This is linked to a cooling and a reversal of the temperature gradient in the tropics. Additionally, a stronger oceanic heat transport leads to a decline in the intensity and a poleward shift of the maxima of both the Hadley and Ferrel cells. Changes in zonal mean diabatic heating and friction impact the properties of the Hadley cell, while the behavior of the Ferrel cell is mostly controlled by friction. The efficiency of the climate machine, the intensity of the Lorenz energy cycle and the material entropy production of the system decline with increased oceanic heat transport. This suggests that the climate system becomes less efficient and turns into a state of reduced entropy production as the enhanced oceanic transport performs a stronger large-scale mixing between geophysical fluids with different temperatures, thus reducing the available energy in the climate system and bringing it closer to a state of thermal equilibrium.

A comparison of two- and three-dimensional tracer transport within a stratospheric circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schneider, H.-R.; Geller, M. A.

1985-01-01

Use of the residual circulation for stratospheric tracer transport has been compared to a fully three-dimensional calculation. The wind fields used in this study were obtained from a global, semispectral, primitive equation model, extending from 10 to 100 km in altitude. Comparisons were done with a passive tracer and an ozone-like substance over a two-month period corresponding to a Northern Hemisphere winter. It was found that the use of the residual circulation can lead to errors in the tracer concentrations of about a factor of 2. The error is made up of two components. One is fluctuating with a period of approximately one month and reflects directly the wave transience that occurs on that time-scale. The second part is increasing steadily over the integration period and results from an overestimate of the vertical transport by the residual circulation. Furthermore, the equatorward and upward mixing that occurs with transport by the three-dimensional circulation at low latitudes is not well reproduced when the residual circulation is used.

Ice sheets play important role in climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Peter U.; MacAyeal, Douglas R.; Andrews, John T.; Bartlein, Patrick J.

Ice sheets once were viewed as passive elements in the climate system enslaved to orbitally generated variations in solar radiation. Today, modeling results and new geologic records suggest that ice sheets actively participated in late-Pleistocene climate change, amplifying or driving significant variability at millennial as well as orbital timescales. Although large changes in global ice volume were ultimately caused by orbital variations (the Milankovitch hypothesis), once in existence, the former ice sheets behaved dynamically and strongly influenced regional and perhaps even global climate by altering atmospheric and oceanic circulation and temperature.Experiments with General Circulation Models (GCMs) yielded the first inklings of ice sheets' climatic significance. Manabe and Broccoli [1985], for example, found that the topographic and albedo effects of ice sheets alone explain much of the Northern Hemisphere cooling identified in paleoclimatic records of the last glacial maximum (˜21 ka).

The global geochemistry of bomb-produced tritium - General circulation model compared to available observations and traditional interpretations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; Broecker, Wallace S.; Jouzel, Jean; Suozzo, Robert J.; Russell, Gary L.; Rind, David

1989-01-01

Observational evidence suggests that of the tritium produced during nuclear bomb tests that has already reached the ocean, more than twice as much arrived through vapor impact as through precipitation. In the present study, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies 8 x 10 deg atmospheric general circulation model is used to simulate tritium transport from the upper atmosphere to the ocean. The simulation indicates that tritium delivery to the ocean via vapor impact is about equal to that via precipitation. The model result is relatively insensitive to several imposed changes in tritium source location, in model parameterizations, and in model resolution. Possible reasons for the discrepancy are explored.

The role of North Atlantic Ocean circulation and biological sequestration on atmospheric CO2 uptake during the last deglaciation (CL Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muschitiello, Francesco; D'Andrea, William J.; Dokken, Trond M.; Schmittner, Andreas

2017-04-01

Understanding the impact of ocean circulation on the global atmospheric CO2 budget is of paramount importance for anticipating the consequences of projected future changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In particular, the efficiency of the oceanic biological pump can impact atmospheric CO2 through changes in vertical carbon export mediated by variations in the nutrient inventory of the North Atlantic basin. However, the causal relationship between North Atlantic Ocean circulation, biological carbon sequestration, and atmospheric CO2 is poorly understood. Here we present new high-resolution planktic-benthic 14C data and biomarker records from an exceptionally well-dated marine core from the Nordic Seas spanning the last deglaciation ( 15,000-10,000 years BP). The records document for the first time large and rapid atmospheric CO2 drawdowns and increase in plankton stocks during major North Atlantic cooling events. Using transient climate simulations from a fully coupled climate-biosphere model, we show that minor perturbations of the North Atlantic biological pump resulting from surface freshening and AMOC weakening can have a major impact on the global atmospheric CO2 budget. Furthermore, our data help clarifying the timing and magnitude of the deglacial CO2 signal recorded in Antarctic ice cores. We conclude that the global CO2 budget is more sensitive to perturbations in North Atlantic circulation than previously thought, which has significance in the future debate of the AMOC response to anthropogenic warming.

Boundary conditions for the Middle Miocene Climate Transition (MMCT v1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frigola, Amanda; Prange, Matthias; Schulz, Michael

2018-04-01

The Middle Miocene Climate Transition was characterized by major Antarctic ice sheet expansion and global cooling during the interval ˜ 15-13 Ma. Here we present two sets of boundary conditions for global general circulation models characterizing the periods before (Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum; MMCO) and after (Middle Miocene Glaciation; MMG) the transition. These boundary conditions include Middle Miocene global topography, bathymetry, and vegetation. Additionally, Antarctic ice volume and geometry, sea level, and atmospheric CO2 concentration estimates for the MMCO and the MMG are reviewed. The MMCO and MMG boundary conditions have been successfully applied to the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) to provide evidence of their suitability for global climate modeling. The boundary-condition files are available for use as input in a wide variety of global climate models and constitute a valuable tool for modeling studies with a focus on the Middle Miocene.

Improved short-term variability in the thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Häusler, K.; Hagan, M. E.; Baumgaertner, A. J. G.; Maute, A.; Lu, G.; Doornbos, E.; Bruinsma, S.; Forbes, J. M.; Gasperini, F.

2014-08-01

We report on a new source of tidal variability in the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM). Lower boundary forcing of the TIME-GCM for a simulation of November-December 2009 based on 3-hourly Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) reanalysis data includes day-to-day variations in both diurnal and semidiurnal tides of tropospheric origin. Comparison with TIME-GCM results from a heretofore standard simulation that includes climatological tropospheric tides from the global-scale wave model reveal evidence of the impacts of MERRA forcing throughout the model domain, including measurable tidal variability in the TIME-GCM upper thermosphere. Additional comparisons with measurements made by the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer satellite show improved TIME-GCM capability to capture day-to-day variations in thermospheric density for the November-December 2009 period with the new MERRA lower boundary forcing.

The Aqua-Planet Experiment (APE): CONTROL SST Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blackburn, Michael; Williamson, David L.; Nakajima, Kensuke; Ohfuchi, Wataru; Takahashi, Yoshiyuki O.; Hayashi, Yoshi-Yuki; Nakamura, Hisashi; Ishiwatari, Masaki; Mcgregor, John L.; Borth, Hartmut;

Mechanism of ENSO influence on the South Asian monsoon rainfall in global model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Sneh; Kar, Sarat C.

2018-02-01

Coupled ocean atmosphere global climate models are increasingly being used for seasonal scale simulation of the South Asian monsoon. In these models, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) evolve as coupled air-sea interaction process. However, sensitivity experiments with various SST forcing can only be done in an atmosphere-only model. In this study, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model at T126 horizontal resolution has been used to examine the mechanism of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing on the monsoon circulation and rainfall. The model has been integrated (ensemble) with observed, climatological and ENSO SST forcing to document the mechanism on how the South Asian monsoon responds to basin-wide SST variations in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The model simulations indicate that the internal variability gets modulated by the SSTs with warming in the Pacific enhancing the ensemble spread over the monsoon region as compared to cooling conditions. Anomalous easterly wind anomalies cover the Indian region both at 850 and 200 hPa levels during El Niño years. The locations and intensity of Walker and Hadley circulations are altered due to ENSO SST forcing. These lead to reduction of monsoon rainfall over most parts of India during El Niño events compared to La Niña conditions. However, internally generated variability is a major source of uncertainty in the model-simulated climate.

Coupled fvGCM-GCE Modeling System, TRMM Latent Heating and Cloud Library

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2004-01-01

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to imiprove the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. A seed fund is available at NASA Goddard to build a MMF based on the 2D GCE model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM). A prototype MMF will be developed by the end of 2004 and production runs will be conducted at the beginning of 2005. The purpose of this proposal is to augment the current Goddard MMF and other cloud modeling activities. I this talk, I will present: (1) A summary of the second Cloud Modeling Workshop took place at NASA Goddard, (2) A summary of the third TRMM Latent Heating Workshop took place at Nara Japan, (3) A brief discussion on the Goddard research plan of using Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model, and (4) A brief discussion on the GCE model on developing a global cloud simulator.

Coupled fvGCM-GCE Modeling System, 3D Cloud-Resolving Model and Cloud Library

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2005-01-01

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud- resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. A seed fund is available at NASA Goddard to build a MMF based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM). A prototype MMF in being developed and production runs will be conducted at the beginning of 2005. In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes, ( 2 ) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), (3) A cloud library generated by Goddard MMF, and 3D GCE model, and (4) A brief discussion on the GCE model on developing a global cloud simulator.

Dynamical significance of tides over the Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhagawati, Chirantan; Pandey, Suchita; Dandapat, Sumit; Chakraborty, Arun

2018-06-01

Tides play a significant role in the ocean surface circulations and vertical mixing thereby influencing the Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) as well. This, in turn, plays an important role in the global circulation when used as a lower boundary condition in a global atmospheric general circulation model. Therefore in the present study, the dynamics of tides over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is investigated through numerical simulations using a high resolution (1/12°) Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Based on statistical analysis it is observed that incorporation of explicit tidal forcing improves the model performance in simulating the basin averaged monthly surface circulation features by 64% compared to the simulation without tides. The model simulates also Mixed Layer Depth (MLD) and SST realistically. The energy exchange between tidal oscillations and eddies leads to redistribution of surface kinetic energy density with a net decrease of 0.012 J m-3 in the western Bay and a net increase of 0.007 J m-3 in the eastern Bay. The tidal forcing also affects the potential energy anomaly and vertical mixing thereby leading to a fall in monthly MLD over the BoB. The mixing due to tides leads to a subsequent reduction in monthly SST and a corresponding reduction in surface heat exchange. These results from the numerical simulation using ROMS reveal that tides have a significant influence over the air-sea heat exchange which is the most important parameter for prediction of Tropical Cyclone frequency and its future variability over the BoB.

Energetics of a Global Ocean Circulation Model Compared to Observations

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-08-09

rings of the boundary currents [ Stammer , 1997; Ferrari and Wunsch, 2009, 2010], is generated by instabilities of the mean flow and direct wind forcing...of the abyssal ocean circulation in the OGCMs? [4] Resolution studies [Bryan et al., 2007 ; Smith et al., 2000; Hogan and Hurlburt, 2000; Oschlies...surface drifter observations [Lumpkin and Pazos, 2007 ], satellite altimetry (150 m) [Ducet et al., 2000], ARGO floats at 1000 m [Lebedev et al., 2007 ], and

Feature-oriented regional modeling and simulations in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gangopadhyay, Avijit; Robinson, Allan R.; Haley, Patrick J.; Leslie, Wayne G.; Lozano, Carlos J.; Bisagni, James J.; Yu, Zhitao

2003-03-01

The multiscale synoptic circulation system in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank (GOMGB) region is presented using a feature-oriented approach. Prevalent synoptic circulation structures, or 'features', are identified from previous observational studies. These features include the buoyancy-driven Maine Coastal Current, the Georges Bank anticyclonic frontal circulation system, the basin-scale cyclonic gyres (Jordan, Georges and Wilkinson), the deep inflow through the Northeast Channel (NEC), the shallow outflow via the Great South Channel (GSC), and the shelf-slope front (SSF). Their synoptic water-mass ( T- S) structures are characterized and parameterized in a generalized formulation to develop temperature-salinity feature models. A synoptic initialization scheme for feature-oriented regional modeling and simulation (FORMS) of the circulation in the coastal-to-deep region of the GOMGB system is then developed. First, the temperature and salinity feature-model profiles are placed on a regional circulation template and then objectively analyzed with appropriate background climatology in the coastal region. Furthermore, these fields are melded with adjacent deep-ocean regional circulation (Gulf Stream Meander and Ring region) along and across the SSF. These initialization fields are then used for dynamical simulations via the primitive equation model. Simulation results are analyzed to calibrate the multiparameter feature-oriented modeling system. Experimental short-term synoptic simulations are presented for multiple resolutions in different regions with and without atmospheric forcing. The presented 'generic and portable' methodology demonstrates the potential of applying similar FORMS in many other regions of the Global Coastal Ocean.

Coupled fvGCM-GCE Modeling System: TRMM Latent Heating and Cloud Library

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2005-01-01

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. A seed fund is available at NASA Goddard to build a MMF based on the 2D GCE model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM). A prototype MMF will be developed by the end of 2004 and production runs will be conducted at the beginning of 2005. The purpose of this proposal is to augment the current Goddard MMF and other cloud modeling activities. In this talk, I will present: (1) A summary of the second Cloud Modeling Workshop took place at NASA Goddard, (2) A summary of the third TRMM Latent Heating Workshop took place at Nara Japan, (3) A brief discussion on the GCE model on developing a global cloud simulator.

Trends in global wildfire potential in a changing climate

Treesearch

Y. Liu; J.A. Stanturf; S.L. Goodrick

2009-01-01

The trend in global wildfire potential under the climate change due to the greenhouse effect is investigated. Fire potential is measured by the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), which is calculated using the observed maximum temperature and precipitation and projected changes at the end of this century (2070–2100) by general circulation models (GCMs) for present and...

Scopic Systems, Pipes, Models and Transfers in the Global Circulation of Educational Knowledge and Practices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sobe, Noah W.; Ortegon, Nicole D.

2009-01-01

The purported "liquidity" of knowledge is often posed as one of the defining characteristics of the present "age of globalization." Liquidity describes the present moment as one marked by flows, flexibility and flux, and it also can be invoked to define the here-and-now by suggesting contrasts and departures from earlier historical eras. This…

Atmospheric Teleconnection over Eurasia Induced by Aerosol Radiative Forcing during Boreal Spring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Maeng-Ki; Lau, William K. M.; Chin, Mian; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Sud, Y. C.; Walker, Greg K.

2006-01-01

The direct effects of aerosols on global and regional climate during boreal spring are investigated based on numerical simulations with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM) with Microphyics of Clouds with the Relaxed Arakawa Schubert Scheme (McRAS), using aerosol forcing functions derived from the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART). The authors find that anomalous atmospheric heat sources induced by absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) excite a planetary-scale teleconnection pattern in sea level pressure, temperature, and geopotential height spanning North Africa through Eurasia to the North Pacific. Surface cooling due to direct effects of aerosols is found in the vicinity and downstream of the aerosol source regions, that is, South Asia, East Asia, and northern and western Africa. Significant atmospheric heating is found in regions with large loading of dust (over northern Africa and the Middle East) and black carbon (over Southeast Asia). Paradoxically, the most pronounced feature in aerosol-induced surface temperature is an east west dipole anomaly with strong cooling over the Caspian Sea and warming over central and northeastern Asia, where aerosol concentrations are low. Analyses of circulation anomalies show that the dipole anomaly is a part of an atmospheric teleconnection pattern driven by atmospheric heating anomalies induced by absorbing aerosols in the source regions, but the influence was conveyed globally through barotropic energy dispersion and sustained by feedback processes associated with the regional circulations. The surface temperature signature associated with the aerosol-induced teleconnection bears striking resemblance to the spatial pattern of observed long-term trend in surface temperature over Eurasia. Additionally, the boreal spring wave train pattern is similar to that reported by Fukutomi et al. associated with the boreal summer precipitation seesaw between eastern and western Siberia. The results of this study raise the possibility that global aerosol forcing during boreal spring may play an important role in spawning atmospheric teleconnections that affect regional and global climates.

A simple inertial model for Neptune's zonal circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allison, Michael; Lumetta, James T.

1990-01-01

Voyager imaging observations of zonal cloud-tracked winds on Neptune revealed a strongly subrotational equatorial jet with a speed approaching 500 m/s and generally decreasing retrograde motion toward the poles. The wind data are interpreted with a speculative but revealingly simple model based on steady gradient flow balance and an assumed global homogenization of potential vorticity for shallow layer motion. The prescribed model flow profile relates the equatorial velocity to the mid-latitude shear, in reasonable agreement with the available data, and implies a global horizontal deformation scale L(D) of about 3000 km.

Exploring the impacts of physics and resolution on aqua-planet simulations from a nonhydrostatic global variable-resolution modeling framework: IMPACTS OF PHYSICS AND RESOLUTION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Chun; Leung, L. Ruby; Park, Sang-Hun

Advances in computing resources are gradually moving regional and global numerical forecasting simulations towards sub-10 km resolution, but global high resolution climate simulations remain a challenge. The non-hydrostatic Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) provides a global framework to achieve very high resolution using regional mesh refinement. Previous studies using the hydrostatic version of MPAS (H-MPAS) with the physics parameterizations of Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4) found notable resolution dependent behaviors. This study revisits the resolution sensitivity using the non-hydrostatic version of MPAS (NH-MPAS) with both CAM4 and CAM5 physics. A series of aqua-planet simulations at global quasi-uniform resolutionsmore » ranging from 240 km to 30 km and global variable resolution simulations with a regional mesh refinement of 30 km resolution over the tropics are analyzed, with a primary focus on the distinct characteristics of NH-MPAS in simulating precipitation, clouds, and large-scale circulation features compared to H-MPAS-CAM4. The resolution sensitivity of total precipitation and column integrated moisture in NH-MPAS is smaller than that in H-MPAS-CAM4. This contributes importantly to the reduced resolution sensitivity of large-scale circulation features such as the inter-tropical convergence zone and Hadley circulation in NH-MPAS compared to H-MPAS. In addition, NH-MPAS shows almost no resolution sensitivity in the simulated westerly jet, in contrast to the obvious poleward shift in H-MPAS with increasing resolution, which is partly explained by differences in the hyperdiffusion coefficients used in the two models that influence wave activity. With the reduced resolution sensitivity, simulations in the refined region of the NH-MPAS global variable resolution configuration exhibit zonally symmetric features that are more comparable to the quasi-uniform high-resolution simulations than those from H-MPAS that displays zonal asymmetry in simulations inside the refined region. Overall, NH-MPAS with CAM5 physics shows less resolution sensitivity compared to CAM4. These results provide a reference for future studies to further explore the use of NH-MPAS for high-resolution climate simulations in idealized and realistic configurations.« less

Medium-range Performance of the Global NWP Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Jang, T.; Kim, J.; Kim, Y.

2017-12-01

The medium-range performance of the global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model in the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) is investigated. The performance is based on the prediction of the extratropical circulation. The mean square error is expressed by sum of spatial variance of discrepancy between forecasts and observations and the square of the mean error (ME). Thus, it is important to investigate the ME effect in order to understand the model performance. The ME is expressed by the subtraction of an anomaly from forecast difference against the real climatology. It is found that the global model suffers from a severe systematic ME in medium-range forecasts. The systematic ME is dominant in the entire troposphere in all months. Such ME can explain at most 25% of root mean square error. We also compare the extratropical ME distribution with that from other NWP centers. NWP models exhibit similar spatial ME structure each other. It is found that the spatial ME pattern is highly correlated to that of an anomaly, implying that the ME varies with seasons. For example, the correlation coefficient between ME and anomaly ranges from -0.51 to -0.85 by months. The pattern of the extratropical circulation also has a high correlation to an anomaly. The global model has trouble in faithfully simulating extratropical cyclones and blockings in the medium-range forecast. In particular, the model has a hard to simulate an anomalous event in medium-range forecasts. If we choose an anomalous period for a test-bed experiment, we will suffer from a large error due to an anomaly.

On the sensitivity of the global ocean circulation to reconstructions of paleo-bathymetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, Tobias; Thomas, Maik

2013-04-01

The ability to model the long-term evolution of the climate does considerably depend on the accuracy of ocean models and their interaction with the atmosphere. Thereby, the ocean model's behavior with respect to uncertain and changing boundary conditions is of crucial importance. One of the remaining questions is, how different reconstructions of the ocean floor influence the model. Although of general interest, this effect has mostly been neglected, so far. We modeled Pliocene and pre-industrial ocean currents with the Max-Planck-Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM), forced by climatologies derived from an atmospheric and vegetational Global Circulation Model (GCM). We equipped it with different reconstructions of the bathymetry, what allowed us to study the model's sensitivity regarding changes in bathymetry. On the one hand we examined the influence of reconstructions with different locations of major ridges, but the same treatment of the shelf. On the other hand, reconstruction techniques that treated the shelf areas differently were taken into consideration. This leads to different oceanic circulation realizations, which induce changes in deep ocean temperature and salinity. Some of the simulations result in unrealistic behavior, such as an increase in surface temperature by several degrees. Most important, small bathymetric changes in the areas of deep water formation near Greenland and the Antarctic alter the thermohaline circulation strongly. This leads to its complete cessation in some of the simulations and therefore to stationary deep laying ocean masses. This shows that not all bathymetric reconstruction sequences are applicable for the generation of boundary conditions for GCMs. In order to obtain reliable and physically realistic data from the models, the reconstruction method to be used for the paleo-bathymetry also needs to be applied to the present day bathymetry. This reconstruction can then be used in a control simulation which can be validated against measurements. Hereby systematic errors introduced by the reconstruction technique are identified.

Mesoscale Effects on Carbon Export: A Global Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, Cheryl S.; Long, Matthew C.; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Moore, Jefferson K.

2018-04-01

Carbon export from the surface to the deep ocean is a primary control on global carbon budgets and is mediated by plankton that are sensitive to physical forcing. Earth system models generally do not resolve ocean mesoscale circulation (O(10-100) km), scales that strongly affect transport of nutrients and plankton. The role of mesoscale circulation in modulating export is evaluated by comparing global ocean simulations conducted at 1° and 0.1° horizontal resolution. Mesoscale resolution produces a small reduction in globally integrated export production (<2%) however, the impact on local export production can be large (±50%), with compensating effects in different ocean basins. With mesoscale resolution, improved representation of coastal jets block off-shelf transport, leading to lower export in regions where shelf-derived nutrients fuel production. Export is further reduced in these regions by resolution of mesoscale turbulence, which restricts the spatial area of production. Maximum mixed layer depths are narrower and deeper across the Subantarctic at higher resolution, driving locally stronger nutrient entrainment and enhanced summer export production. In energetic regions with seasonal blooms, such as the Subantarctic and North Pacific, internally generated mesoscale variability drives substantial interannual variation in local export production. These results suggest that biogeochemical tracer dynamics show different sensitivities to transport biases than temperature and salinity, which should be considered in the formulation and validation of physical parameterizations. Efforts to compare estimates of export production from observations and models should account for large variability in space and time expected for regions strongly affected by mesoscale circulation.

Combining Satellite Ocean Color Imagery and Circulation Modeling to Forecast Bio-Optical Properties: Comparison of Models and Advection Schemes

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-10-01

Director NCST E. R. Franchi , 7000 ^^M^4^k ro£— 4// 2^/s y Public Affairs (Unclassified/ Unlimited Only), Code 7030 4 Division, Code Author, Code...from the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS, Hogan and Rosmond, 1991) and assimilates data via the Navy Coupled Ocean...forecasts using Global , Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and northern Gulf of Mexico configurations of HYCOM. Proceedings, Ocean Optics XIX, Castelvecchio Pascoli

Western Pacific Hydroclimate Linked to Global Climate Variability Over the Past Two Millennia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Griffiths, Michael L.; Kimbrough, Alena K.; Gagan, Michael K.; Drysdale, Russell N.; Cole, Julia E.; Johnson, Kathleen R.; Zhao, Jian-Xin; Cook, Benjamin I.; Hellstrom, John C.; Hantoro, Wahyoe S.

2016-01-01

Interdecadal modes of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere circulation have a strong influence on global temperature, yet the extent to which these phenomena influence global climate on multicentury timescales is still poorly known. Here we present a 2,000-year, multiproxy reconstruction of western Pacific hydroclimate from two speleothem records for southeastern Indonesia. The composite record shows pronounced shifts in monsoon rainfall that are antiphased with precipitation records for East Asia and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. These meridional and zonal patterns are best explained by a poleward expansion of the Australasian Intertropical Convergence Zone and weakening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) between B1000 and 1500 CE Conversely, an equatorward contraction of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and strengthened PWC occurred between B1500 and 1900 CE. Our findings, together with climate model simulations, highlight the likelihood that century-scale variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature.

Constraints on the thermal evolution of Venus inferred from Magellan data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arkani-Hamed, J.; Schaber, G. G.; Strom, R. G.

1993-03-01

One interpretation of the Magellan data suggests that the cratering record on Venus was erased by a global resurfacing event, or events, the latest ending about 500 m.y. ago. In this global-resurfacing model the resurfacing was followed by minor volcanism and tectonism that has been concentrated primarily in the equatorial highland regions characterized by extensive fracture belts and rifts. A thermal evolution model of Venus that can explain these observations is one in which a deformable lithosphere, capable of being incorporated in mantle circulations, provides an almost stress-free condition at the surface. Mantle convection with an almost stress-free boundary at the surface cools the interior more efficiently. Rapid cooling decreases the Rayleigh number of mantle convection below a transition value required for oscillatory convection, and the vigor of convection diminishes as the mantle changes to a quasi-steady circulation after about 500 m.y. ago.

The Resolution Sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere Blocking in Four 25-km Atmospheric Global Circulation Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schiemann, Reinhard; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Shaffrey, Len C.

The aim of this study is to investigate if the representation of Northern Hemisphere blocking is sensitive to resolution in current-generation atmospheric global circulation models (AGCMs). An evaluation is thus conducted of how well atmospheric blocking is represented in four AGCMs whose horizontal resolution is increased from a grid spacing of more than 100 km to about 25 km. It is shown that Euro-Atlantic blocking is simulated overall more credibly at higher resolution (i.e., in better agreement with a 50-yr reference blocking climatology created from the reanalyses ERA-40 and ERA-Interim). The improvement seen with resolution depends on the season andmore » to some extent on the model considered. Euro-Atlantic blocking is simulated more realistically at higher resolution in winter, spring, and autumn, and robustly so across the model ensemble. The improvement in spring is larger than that in winter and autumn. Summer blocking is found to be better simulated at higher resolution by one model only, with little change seen in the other three models. The representation of Pacific blocking is not found to systematically depend on resolution. Despite the improvements seen with resolution, the 25-km models still exhibit large biases in Euro-Atlantic blocking. For example, three of the four 25-km models underestimate winter northern European blocking frequency by about one-third. The resolution sensitivity and biases in the simulated blocking are shown to be in part associated with the mean-state biases in the models' midlatitude circulation.« less

The Resolution Sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere Blocking in Four 25-km Atmospheric Global Circulation Models

DOE PAGES

Schiemann, Reinhard; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Shaffrey, Len C.; ...

2016-12-19

The aim of this study is to investigate if the representation of Northern Hemisphere blocking is sensitive to resolution in current-generation atmospheric global circulation models (AGCMs). An evaluation is thus conducted of how well atmospheric blocking is represented in four AGCMs whose horizontal resolution is increased from a grid spacing of more than 100 km to about 25 km. It is shown that Euro-Atlantic blocking is simulated overall more credibly at higher resolution (i.e., in better agreement with a 50-yr reference blocking climatology created from the reanalyses ERA-40 and ERA-Interim). The improvement seen with resolution depends on the season andmore » to some extent on the model considered. Euro-Atlantic blocking is simulated more realistically at higher resolution in winter, spring, and autumn, and robustly so across the model ensemble. The improvement in spring is larger than that in winter and autumn. Summer blocking is found to be better simulated at higher resolution by one model only, with little change seen in the other three models. The representation of Pacific blocking is not found to systematically depend on resolution. Despite the improvements seen with resolution, the 25-km models still exhibit large biases in Euro-Atlantic blocking. For example, three of the four 25-km models underestimate winter northern European blocking frequency by about one-third. The resolution sensitivity and biases in the simulated blocking are shown to be in part associated with the mean-state biases in the models' midlatitude circulation.« less

Global transport of atmospheric smoke following a major nuclear exchange

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haberle, R. M.; Ackerman, T. P.; Toon, O. B.; Hollingsworth, J. L.

1985-01-01

A fully interactive zonally symmetric general circulation model is used to simulate the transport and evolution of a massive smoke cloud that is likely to form in the atmosphere following a major nuclear war. The presence of such a cloud significantly alters the simulated circulation and the subsequent transport of the smoke particles themselves. While the model indicates a tendency for interhemispheric exchange, the most immediate effect is that the radiatively active particles are carried into the stratosphere by the generation of strong vertical motions and intense convection regardless of their initial injection altitudes.

Global transport of atmospheric smoke following a major nuclear exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haberle, Robert M.; Ackerman, Thomas P.; Toon, Owen B.; Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.

A fully interactive zonally symmetric general circulation model is used to simulate the transport and evolution of a massive smoke cloud that is likely to form in the atmosphere following a major nuclear war. The presence of such a cloud significantly alters the simulated circulation and the subsequent transport of the smoke particles themselves. While the model indicates a tendency for interhemispheric exchange, the most immediate effect is that the radiatively active particles are carried into the stratosphere by the generation of strong vertical motions and intense convection regardless of their initial injection altitudes.

Final Technical Report for Department of Energy Award DE-SC0006625, “Predictability of the carbon-climate system on seasonal to decadal time scales.”

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fung, Inez

The project aims to investigate the feasibility of advancing our understanding of the carbon cycle, using a carbon-weather data assimilation system that updates the modeled carbon dioxide concentration and atmospheric circulation every six hours using CO 2 data (from the OCO 2 satellite) and weather data. At the core of the system is the DOE-NCAR-CAM5fv global circulation model coupled to the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Data Assimilation Testbed, running an ensemble of 30 models. This combination provides realistic vertical carbon dioxide gradients and conservation of dry air mass. A global four-dimensional distribution of atmospheric CO 2 concentration is produced.more » Our results show (1) that OCO 2 total precipitable water data are reliable and provide valuable uncertainty information for the OCO 2 data assimilation; and (2) that our approach is a promising method for monitoring national carbon dioxide emissions.« less

Assessment and simulation of global terrestrial latent heat flux by synthesis of CMIP5 climate models and surface eddy covariance observations

Treesearch

Yunjun Yao; Shunlin Liang; Xianglan Li; Shaomin Liu; Jiquan Chen; Xiaotong Zhang; Kun Jia; Bo Jiang; Xianhong Xie; Simon Munier; Meng Liu; Jian Yu; Anders Lindroth; Andrej Varlagin; Antonio Raschi; Asko Noormets; Casimiro Pio; Georg Wohlfahrt; Ge Sun; Jean-Christophe Domec; Leonardo Montagnani; Magnus Lund; Moors Eddy; Peter D. Blanken; Thomas Grunwald; Sebastian Wolf; Vincenzo Magliulo

2016-01-01

The latent heat flux (LE) between the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere is a major driver of the globalhydrological cycle. In this study, we evaluated LE simulations by 45 general circulation models (GCMs)in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) by a comparison...

Watershed scale response to climate change--Yampa River Basin, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, Lauren E.; Battaglin, William A.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

General Circulation Model simulations of future climate through 2099 project a wide range of possible scenarios. To determine the sensitivity and potential effect of long-term climate change on the freshwater resources of the United States, the U.S. Geological Survey Global Change study, "An integrated watershed scale response to global change in selected basins across the United States" was started in 2008. The long-term goal of this national study is to provide the foundation for hydrologically based climate change studies across the nation. Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Yampa River Basin at Steamboat Springs, Colorado.

Modeling the Gulf Stream System: How Far from Reality?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choa, Yi; Gangopadhyay, Avijit; Bryan, Frank O.; Holland, William R.

1996-01-01

Analyses of a primitive equation ocean model simulation of the Atlantic Ocean circulation at 1/6 deg horizontal resolution are presented with a focus on the Gulf Stream region. Among many successful features of this simulation, this letter describes the Gulf Stream separation from the coast of North America near Cape Hatteras, meandering of the Gulf Stream between Cape Hatteras and the Grand Banks, and the vertical structure of temperature and velocity associated with the Gulf Stream. These results demonstrate significant improvement in modeling the Gulf Stream system using basin- to global scale ocean general circulation models. Possible reasons responsible for the realistic Gulf Stream simulation are discussed, contrasting the major differences between the present model configuration and those of previous eddy resolving studies.

Final Technical Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Held, Isaac; V. Balaji; Fueglistaler, Stephan

We have constructed and analyzed a series of idealized models of tropical convection interacting with large-scale circulations, with 25-50km resolution and with 1-2km cloud resolving resolution to set the stage for rigorous tests of convection closure schemes in high resolution global climate models. Much of the focus has been on the climatology of tropical cyclogenesis in rotating systems and the related problem of the spontaneous aggregation of convection in non-rotating systems. The PI (Held) will be delivering the honorary Bjerknes lecture at the Fall 2016 AGU meeting in December on this work. We have also provided new analyses of long-standingmore » issues related to the interaction between convection and the large-scale circulation: Kelvin waves in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, water vapor transport into the stratosphere, and upper tropospheric temperature trends. The results of these analyses help to improve our understanding of processes, and provide tests for future high resolution global modeling. Our final goal of testing new convections schemes in next-generation global atmospheric models at GFDL has been left for future work due to the complexity of the idealized model results meant as tests for these models uncovered in this work and to computational resource limitations. 11 papers have been published with support from this grant, 2 are in review, and another major summary paper is in preparation.« less

GRACILE: a comprehensive climatology of atmospheric gravity wave parameters based on satellite limb soundings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ern, Manfred; Trinh, Quang Thai; Preusse, Peter; Gille, John C.; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Russell, James M., III; Riese, Martin

2018-04-01

Gravity waves are one of the main drivers of atmospheric dynamics. The spatial resolution of most global atmospheric models, however, is too coarse to properly resolve the small scales of gravity waves, which range from tens to a few thousand kilometers horizontally, and from below 1 km to tens of kilometers vertically. Gravity wave source processes involve even smaller scales. Therefore, general circulation models (GCMs) and chemistry climate models (CCMs) usually parametrize the effect of gravity waves on the global circulation. These parametrizations are very simplified. For this reason, comparisons with global observations of gravity waves are needed for an improvement of parametrizations and an alleviation of model biases. We present a gravity wave climatology based on atmospheric infrared limb emissions observed by satellite (GRACILE). GRACILE is a global data set of gravity wave distributions observed in the stratosphere and the mesosphere by the infrared limb sounding satellite instruments High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) and Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). Typical distributions (zonal averages and global maps) of gravity wave vertical wavelengths and along-track horizontal wavenumbers are provided, as well as gravity wave temperature variances, potential energies and absolute momentum fluxes. This global data set captures the typical seasonal variations of these parameters, as well as their spatial variations. The GRACILE data set is suitable for scientific studies, and it can serve for comparison with other instruments (ground-based, airborne, or other satellite instruments) and for comparison with gravity wave distributions, both resolved and parametrized, in GCMs and CCMs. The GRACILE data set is available as supplementary data at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.879658.

A climatology of gravity wave parameters based on satellite limb soundings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ern, Manfred; Trinh, Quang Thai; Preusse, Peter; Riese, Martin

2017-04-01

Gravity waves are one of the main drivers of atmospheric dynamics. The resolution of most global circulation models (GCMs) and chemistry climate models (CCMs), however, is too coarse to properly resolve the small scales of gravity waves. Horizontal scales of gravity waves are in the range of tens to a few thousand kilometers. Gravity wave source processes involve even smaller scales. Therefore GCMs/CCMs usually parametrize the effect of gravity waves on the global circulation. These parametrizations are very simplified, and comparisons with global observations of gravity waves are needed for an improvement of parametrizations and an alleviation of model biases. In our study, we present a global data set of gravity wave distributions observed in the stratosphere and the mesosphere by the infrared limb sounding satellite instruments High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) and Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). We provide various gravity wave parameters (for example, gravity variances, potential energies and absolute momentum fluxes). This comprehensive climatological data set can serve for comparison with other instruments (ground based, airborne, or other satellite instruments), as well as for comparison with gravity wave distributions, both resolved and parametrized, in GCMs and CCMs. The purpose of providing various different parameters is to make our data set useful for a large number of potential users and to overcome limitations of other observation techniques, or of models, that may be able to provide only one of those parameters. We present a climatology of typical average global distributions and of zonal averages, as well as their natural range of variations. In addition, we discuss seasonal variations of the global distribution of gravity waves, as well as limitations of our method of deriving gravity wave parameters from satellite data.

MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION DYNAMICS FROM 3D MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC GLOBAL SIMULATIONS OF SOLAR CONVECTION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Passos, Dário; Charbonneau, Paul; Miesch, Mark, E-mail: dariopassos@ist.utl.pt

The form of solar meridional circulation is a very important ingredient for mean field flux transport dynamo models. However, a shroud of mystery still surrounds this large-scale flow, given that its measurement using current helioseismic techniques is challenging. In this work, we use results from three-dimensional global simulations of solar convection to infer the dynamical behavior of the established meridional circulation. We make a direct comparison between the meridional circulation that arises in these simulations and the latest observations. Based on our results, we argue that there should be an equatorward flow at the base of the convection zone atmore » mid-latitudes, below the current maximum depth helioseismic measures can probe (0.75 R{sub ⊙}). We also provide physical arguments to justify this behavior. The simulations indicate that the meridional circulation undergoes substantial changes in morphology as the magnetic cycle unfolds. We close by discussing the importance of these dynamical changes for current methods of observation which involve long averaging periods of helioseismic data. Also noteworthy is the fact that these topological changes indicate a rich interaction between magnetic fields and plasma flows, which challenges the ubiquitous kinematic approach used in the vast majority of mean field dynamo simulations.« less

Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation.

PubMed

Shakun, Jeremy D; Clark, Peter U; He, Feng; Marcott, Shaun A; Mix, Alan C; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Schmittner, Andreas; Bard, Edouard

2012-04-04

The covariation of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentration and temperature in Antarctic ice-core records suggests a close link between CO(2) and climate during the Pleistocene ice ages. The role and relative importance of CO(2) in producing these climate changes remains unclear, however, in part because the ice-core deuterium record reflects local rather than global temperature. Here we construct a record of global surface temperature from 80 proxy records and show that temperature is correlated with and generally lags CO(2) during the last (that is, the most recent) deglaciation. Differences between the respective temperature changes of the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere parallel variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation recorded in marine sediments. These observations, together with transient global climate model simulations, support the conclusion that an antiphased hemispheric temperature response to ocean circulation changes superimposed on globally in-phase warming driven by increasing CO(2) concentrations is an explanation for much of the temperature change at the end of the most recent ice age.

State estimation improves prospects for ocean research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stammer, Detlef; Wunsch, C.; Fukumori, I.; Marshall, J.

Rigorous global ocean state estimation methods can now be used to produce dynamically consistent time-varying model/data syntheses, the results of which are being used to study a variety of important scientific problems. Figure 1 shows a schematic of a complete ocean observing and synthesis system that includes global observations and state-of-the-art ocean general circulation models (OGCM) run on modern computer platforms. A global observing system is described in detail in Smith and Koblinsky [2001],and the present status of ocean modeling and anticipated improvements are addressed by Griffies et al. [2001]. Here, the focus is on the third component of state estimation: the synthesis of the observations and a model into a unified, dynamically consistent estimate.

Walker circulation in a transient climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plesca, Elina; Grützun, Verena; Buehler, Stefan A.

2016-04-01

The tropical overturning circulations modulate the heat exchange across the tropics and between the tropics and the poles. The anthropogenic influence on the climate system will affect these circulations, impacting the dynamics of the Earth system. In this work we focus on the Walker circulation. We investigate its temporal and spatial dynamical changes and their link to other climate features, such as surface and sea-surface temperature patterns, El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and ocean heat-uptake, both at global and regional scale. In order to determine the impact of anthropogenic climate change on the tropical circulation, we analyze the outputs of 28 general circulation models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 project. We use the experiment with 1% year-1 increase in CO2 concentration from pre-industrial levels to quadrupling of the concentration. Consistent with previous studies (ex. Ma and Xie 2013), we find that for this experiment most GCMs associate a weakening Walker circulation to a warming transient climate. Due to the role of the Walker Pacific cell in the meridional heat and moisture transport across the tropical Pacific and also the connection to ENSO, we find that a weakened Walker circulation correlates with more extreme El-Niño events, although without a change in their frequency. The spatial analysis of the Pacific Walker cell suggests an eastward displacement of the ascending branch, which is consistent with positive SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific and the link of the Pacific Walker cell to ENSO. Recent studies (ex. England et al. 2014) have linked a strengthened Walker circulation to stronger ocean heat uptake, especially in the western Pacific. The inter-model comparison of the correlation between Walker circulation intensity and ocean heat uptake does not convey a robust response for the investigated experiment. However, there is some evidence that a stronger weakening of the Walker circulation is linked to a higher transient climate response (temperature change by the time of CO2 doubling), which in turn might be related to a decreased ocean heat uptake. This uncertainty across the models we attribute to the multitude of factors controlling ocean and atmosphere heat exchange, both at global and regional scales, as well as to the present capabilities of GCMs in simulating this exchange. References: England, M. H., McGregor, S., Spence, P., Meehl, G. A., Timmermann, A., Cai, W., Gupta, A. S., McPhaden, M. J., Purich, A., and Santoso, A., 2014. Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus. Nature Climate Change 4 (3): 222-227. Ma, J., and Xie, S. P., 2013. Regional Patterns of Sea Surface Temperature Change: A Source of Uncertainty in Future Projections of Precipitation and Atmospheric Circulation*. Journal of Climate, 26 (8): 2482-2501

ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS OF TERRESTRIAL EXOPLANETS OVER A WIDE RANGE OF ORBITAL AND ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kaspi, Yohai; Showman, Adam P., E-mail: yohai.kaspi@weizmann.ac.il

The recent discoveries of terrestrial exoplanets and super-Earths extending over a broad range of orbital and physical parameters suggest that these planets will span a wide range of climatic regimes. Characterization of the atmospheres of warm super-Earths has already begun and will be extended to smaller and more distant planets over the coming decade. The habitability of these worlds may be strongly affected by their three-dimensional atmospheric circulation regimes, since the global climate feedbacks that control the inner and outer edges of the habitable zone—including transitions to Snowball-like states and runaway-greenhouse feedbacks—depend on the equator-to-pole temperature differences, patterns of relativemore » humidity, and other aspects of the dynamics. Here, using an idealized moist atmospheric general circulation model including a hydrological cycle, we study the dynamical principles governing the atmospheric dynamics on such planets. We show how the planetary rotation rate, stellar flux, atmospheric mass, surface gravity, optical thickness, and planetary radius affect the atmospheric circulation and temperature distribution on such planets. Our simulations demonstrate that equator-to-pole temperature differences, meridional heat transport rates, structure and strength of the winds, and the hydrological cycle vary strongly with these parameters, implying that the sensitivity of the planet to global climate feedbacks will depend significantly on the atmospheric circulation. We elucidate the possible climatic regimes and diagnose the mechanisms controlling the formation of atmospheric jet streams, Hadley and Ferrel cells, and latitudinal temperature differences. Finally, we discuss the implications for understanding how the atmospheric circulation influences the global climate.« less

A Year-Long Comparison of GPS TEC and Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perlongo, N. J.; Ridley, A. J.; Cnossen, I.; Wu, C.

2018-02-01

The prevalence of GPS total electron content (TEC) observations has provided an opportunity for extensive global ionosphere-thermosphere model validation efforts. This study presents a year-long data-model comparison using the Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM) and the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM). For the entire year of 2010, each model was run and compared to GPS TEC observations. The results were binned according to season, latitude, local time, and magnetic local time. GITM was found to overestimate the TEC everywhere, except on the midlatitude nightside, due to high O/N2 ratios. TIE-GCM produced much less TEC and had lower O/N2 ratios and neutral wind speeds. Seasonal and regional biases in the models are discussed along with ideas for model improvements and further validation efforts.

A simulation of the global ocean circulation with resolved eddies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semtner, Albert J.; Chervin, Robert M.

1988-12-01

A multilevel primitive-equation model has been constructed for the purpose of simulating ocean circulation on modern supercomputing architectures. The model is designed to take advantage of faster clock speeds, increased numbers of processors, and enlarged memories of machines expected to be available over the next decade. The model allows global eddy-resolving simulations to be conducted in support of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment. Furthermore, global ocean modeling is essential for proper representation of the full range of oceanic and climatic phenomena. The first such global eddy-resolving ocean calculation is reported here. A 20-year integration of a global ocean model with ½° grid spacing and 20 vertical levels has been carried out with realistic geometry and annual mean wind forcing. The temperature and salinity are constrained to Levitus gridded data above 25-m depth and below 710-m depth (on time scales of 1 month and 3 years, respectively), but the values in the main thermocline are unconstrained for the last decade of the calculation. The final years of the simulation allow the spontaneous formation of waves and eddies through the use of scale-selective viscosity and diffusion. A quasi-equilibrium state shows many realistic features of ocean circulation, including unstable separating western boundary currents, the known anomalous northward heat transport in the South Atlantic, and a global compensation for the abyssal spread of North Atlantic Deep Water via a long chain of thermocline mass transport from the tropical Pacific, through the Indonesian archipelago, across the Indian Ocean, and around the southern tip of Africa. This chain of thermocline transport is perhaps the most striking result from the model, and eddies and waves are evident along the entire 20,000-km path of the flow. The modeled Gulf Stream separates somewhat north of Cape Hatteras, produces warm- and cold-core rings, and maintains its integrity as a meadering thermal front as far east as the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The Florida Current near the Yucatan peninsula sheds warm-core rings into the Gulf of Mexico. The East Australia Current produces warm rings which travel southward where the main current turns eastward. The Kuroshio and Oyashio currents are modeled as separate and distinct, each capable of producing warm and cold rings, but neither of them being distinguishable more than 1500 km offshore. A number of frontal regions in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current also exhibit spontaneous variability. Some specific areas of vigorous eddy activity have been identified in the South Atlantic by examining regional enlargements of the southwest Atlantic and of the southeast Atlantic over a simulated span of 225 days, using color raster animations of the volume transport stream function and of the temperature at 160-m depth. The Agulhas Current spawns mainly warm-core rings which enter the large-scale gyre circulation of the South Atlantic after rounding the tip of Africa and moving to the northwest. The Drake Passage has two thermal fronts, the northern of which is strongly unstable and generates ring pairs at about a 140-day period, whose net effect is to transport heat poleward. The confluence of the Brazil Current and the Malvinas (Falkland) Current forces each to turn abruptly eastward and exhibit ring formation near the continental shelf break, with unstable meandering farther downstream. It appears that each separated jet has a distinct core for generating unstable waves with periods of roughly 60 days. More quantitative results on global dynamics will be forthcoming as seasonally forced simulations, including ones with ⅓° × ⅖° grid spacing, are obtained and as the simulated variability and eddy transports are analyzed in a systematic fashion.

The dynamics behind Titan's methane clouds.

PubMed

Mitchell, Jonathan L; Pierrehumbert, Raymond T; Frierson, Dargan M W; Caballero, Rodrigo

2006-12-05

We present results of an axisymmetric global circulation model of Titan with a simplified suite of atmospheric physics forced by seasonally varying insolation. The recent discovery of midlatitude tropospheric clouds on Titan has caused much excitement about the roles of surface sources of methane and the global circulation in forming clouds. Although localized surface sources, such as methane geysers or "cryovolcanoes," have been invoked to explain these clouds, we find in this work that clouds appear in regions of convergence by the mean meridional circulation and over the poles during solstices, where the solar forcing reaches its seasonal maximum. Other regions are inhibited from forming clouds because of dynamical transports of methane and strong subsidence. We find that for a variety of moist regimes, i.e., with the effect of methane thermodynamics included, the observed cloud features can be explained by the large-scale dynamics of the atmosphere. Clouds at the solsticial pole are found to be a robust feature of Titan's dynamics, whereas isolated midlatitude clouds are present exclusively in a variety of moist dynamical regimes. In all cases, even without including methane thermodynamics, our model ceases to produce polar clouds approximately 4-6 terrestrial years after solstices.

Space and Missile Defense Acquisitions: Periodic Assessment Needed to Correct Parts Quality Problems in Major Programs

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-01

understanding of the global water cycle and the accuracy of precipitation forecasts. GPM is composed of a core spacecraft carrying two main instruments: a dual...developed by NASA and the Space Agency of Argentina (Comisión Nacional de Actividades Espaciales) to investigate the links between the global water ... cycle , ocean circulation, and the climate. It will measure global sea surface salinity. The Aquarius science goals are to observe and model the

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring (TRMM) - What Have We Learned and What Does the Future Hold?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kummerow, C.; Hong, Y.; Olsen, W. S.

2000-01-01

Rainfall is important in the hydrological cycle and to the lives and welfare of humans. In addition to being a life-giving resource, rainfall processes also plays a crucial role in the dynamics of the global atmospheric circulation. Three-fourths of the energy that drives the atmospheric wind circulation comes from the latent heat released by tropical precipitation. It varies greatly in space and time. The rain-producing cloud systems may last several hours or days. Their dimensions range from 10 km to several hundred km. This makes it difficult to incorporate rainfall directly large-scale weather and climate models. Until the end of 1997, precipitation in the global tropics was not known to within a factor of two. Regarding "global warming", the various large-scale models differed among themselves in the predicted magnitude of the warming and in the expected regional effects of these temperature and moisture changes. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite has yielded important interim results related to rainfall observations, data assimilation and model forecast skills when rainfall data is assimilated. This talk will summarize where the TRMM science team is with regards to answering some of these important scientific challenges, as well as discuss the future Global Precipitation Mission which will provide 3 hourly rainfall coverage and offers some unique collaborative potential for NOAA and NASA.

Numerical Hindcast Experiments for Study Tropical Convections and MJO Events during Year of Tropical Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chern, J.; Tao, W.; Shen, B.

2011-12-01

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant component of intraseasonal variability in the tropic. It interacts and influences a wide range of weather and climate phenomena across different temporal and spatial scales. Despite the important role the MJO plays in the weather and climate system, past multi-model MJO intercomparison studies have shown that current global general circulation models (GCMs) still have considerable shortcomings in representing and forecasting this phenomenon. To improve representation of MJO and tropical convective cloud systems in global model, an Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) in which a cloud-resolving model takes the place of the sing-column cumulus parameterization used in convectional GCMs has been successfully developed at NAAS Goddard (Tao et al. 2009). To evaluate and improve the ability of this modeling system in representation and prediction of the MJO, several numerical hindcast experiments of a few selected MJO events during YOTC have been carried out. The ability of the model to simulate the MJO events is examined using diagnostic and skill metrics developed by the CLIVAR MJO Working Group Project as well as comparisons with a high-resolution global mesoscale model simulations, satellite observations, and analysis dataset. Several key variables associated with the MJO are investigated, including precipitation, outgoing longwave radiation, large-scale circulation, surface latent heat flux, low-level moisture convergence, vertical structure of moisture and hydrometers, and vertical diabatic heating profiles to gain insight of cloud processes associated with the MJO events.

Key processes for the eastward propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation based on multimodel simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Xianan

2017-01-01

As a prominent climate variability mode with widespread influences on global weather extremes, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains poorly represented in the latest generation of general circulation models (GCMs), with a particular challenge in simulating its eastward propagating convective signals. In this study, by analyzing multimodel simulations from a recent global MJO model evaluation project, an effort is made to identify key processes for the eastward propagation of the MJO through analyses of moisture entropy (ME) processes under a "moisture mode" framework for the MJO. The column-integrated horizontal ME advection is found to play a critical role for the eastward propagation of the MJO in both observations and good MJO models, with a primary contribution through advection of the lower tropospheric seasonal mean ME by the MJO anomalous circulations. By contrast, the horizontal ME advection effect for the eastward propagation is greatly underestimated in poor MJO GCMs, due to model deficiencies in simulating both the seasonal mean ME pattern and MJO circulations, leading to a largely stationary MJO mode in these GCMs. These results thus pinpoint an important guidance toward improved representation of the MJO in climate and weather forecast models. While this study mainly focuses on fundamental physics for the MJO propagation over the Indian Ocean, complex influences by the Maritime Continent on the MJO and also ME processes associated with the MJO over the western Pacific warrant further investigations.

Variability of hydrological extreme events in East Asia and their dynamical control: a comparison between observations and two high-resolution global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freychet, N.; Duchez, A.; Wu, C.-H.; Chen, C.-A.; Hsu, H.-H.; Hirschi, J.; Forryan, A.; Sinha, B.; New, A. L.; Graham, T.; Andrews, M. B.; Tu, C.-Y.; Lin, S.-J.

2017-02-01

This work investigates the variability of extreme weather events (drought spells, DS15, and daily heavy rainfall, PR99) over East Asia. It particularly focuses on the large scale atmospheric circulation associated with high levels of the occurrence of these extreme events. Two observational datasets (APHRODITE and PERSIANN) are compared with two high-resolution global climate models (HiRAM and HadGEM3-GC2) and an ensemble of other lower resolution climate models from CMIP5. We first evaluate the performance of the high resolution models. They both exhibit good skill in reproducing extreme events, especially when compared with CMIP5 results. Significant differences exist between the two observational datasets, highlighting the difficulty of having a clear estimate of extreme events. The link between the variability of the extremes and the large scale circulation is investigated, on monthly and interannual timescales, using composite and correlation analyses. Both extreme indices DS15 and PR99 are significantly linked to the low level wind intensity over East Asia, i.e. the monsoon circulation. It is also found that DS15 events are strongly linked to the surface temperature over the Siberian region and to the land-sea pressure contrast, while PR99 events are linked to the sea surface temperature anomalies over the West North Pacific. These results illustrate the importance of the monsoon circulation on extremes over East Asia. The dependencies on of the surface temperature over the continent and the sea surface temperature raise the question as to what extent they could affect the occurrence of extremes over tropical regions in future projections.

Atmospheric planetary wave response to external forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stevens, D. E.; Reiter, E. R.

1985-01-01

The tools of observational analysis, complex general circulation modeling, and simpler modeling approaches were combined in order to attack problems on the largest spatial scales of the earth's atmosphere. Two different models were developed and applied. The first is a two level, global spectral model which was designed primarily to test the effects of north-south sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) gradients between the equatorial and midlatitude north Pacific. The model is nonlinear, contains both radiation and a moisture budget with associated precipitation and surface evaporation, and utilizes a linear balance dynamical framework. Supporting observational analysis of atmospheric planetary waves is briefly summarized. More extensive general circulation models have also been used to consider the problem of the atmosphere's response, especially in the horizontal propagation of planetary scale waves, to SSTA.

Application of AVHRR vegetation index to study atmosphere-biosphere exchange of CO2: Results from a 3-D tracer transport model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fung, Inez Y.; Tucker, C. J.; Prentice, Katharine C.

1985-01-01

The 'normalized difference vegetation indices' (NVI) derived from AVHRR radiances are combined with field data of soil respiration and a global map of net primary productivity to prescribe, for the globe, the seasonal exchange of CO2 between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere. The monthly fluxes of CO2 thus obtained are used as inputs to a 3-D tracer transport model which uses winds generated by a 3-D atmospheric general circulation model to advect CO2 as an inert constituent. Analysis of the 3-D model results shows reasonable agreement between the simulated and observed annual cycles of atmospheric CO2 at the locations of the remote monitoring stations. The application is shown of atmospheric CO2 distributions to calibrate the NVI in terms of carbon fluxes. The approach suggests that the NVI may be used to provide quantitative information about long term and global scale variations of photosynthetic activity and of atmospheric CO2 concentrations provided that variations in the atmospheric circulation and in atmospheric composition are known.

Observational Evidence of the "Tightening of Hadley Ascent"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, H.; Wu, L.; Jiang, J. H.

2017-12-01

Recent studies show that the Hadley Circulation undergoes complicated structure changes under global warming (e.g., Su et al., 2014; Lau and Kim 2015; Byrne and Schneider 2016; Su et al., 2017)). Accompanied by the widening of the descent zone, a narrowing of the ascending branch of the Hadley Circulation is simulated in most climate models. The magnitude of the tightening of Hadley ascent (THA) in the models is found to be highly correlated with the decrease of tropical high cloud fraction, which is a major contributor to the inter-model spread of the longwave radiative cooling rate and the global-mean precipitation change per degree of surface warming (Su et al. 2017). While the THA is a common feature in the models, its observational evidence is limited. We have examined a number of reanalyses and satellite datasets to identify the indicators of the THA in terms of large-scale winds, water vapor, cloud and precipitation changes in the past decades. The robustness of the THA in the observations and the differences between various datasets will be presented.

An analysis of the relationship between cloud anomalies and sea surface temperature anomalies in a global circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peterson, Thomas C.; Barnett, Tim P.; Roeckner, Erich; Vonder Haar, Thomas H.

1992-01-01

The relationship between the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and the anomalies of the monthly mean cloud cover (including the high-level, low-level, and total cloud cover), the outgoing longwave radiation, and the reflected solar radiation was analyzed using a least absolute deviations regression at each grid point over the open ocean for a 6-yr period. The results indicate that cloud change in association with a local 1-C increase in SSTAs cannot be used to predict clouds in a potential future world where all the oceans are 1-C warmer than at present, because much of the observed cloud changes are due to circulation changes, which in turn are related not only to changes in SSTAs but to changes in SSTA gradients. However, because SSTAs are associated with changes in the local ocean-atmosphere moisture and heat fluxes as well as significant changes in circulation (such as ENSO), SSTAs can serve as a surrogate for many aspects of global climate change.

Interpretation of snow-climate feedback as produced by 17 general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cess, R. D.; Zhang, M.-H.; Potter, G. L.; Blanchet, J.-P.; Chalita, S.; Colman, R.; Dazlich, D. A.; Del Genio, A. D.; Lacis, A. A.; Dymnikov, V.

1991-01-01

Snow feedback is expected to amplify global warming caused by increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. The conventional explanation is that a warmer earth will have less snow cover, resulting in a darker planet that absorbs more solar radiation. An intercomparison of 17 general circulation models, for which perturbations of sea surface temperature were used as a surrogate climate change, suggests that this explanation is overly simplistic. The results instead indicate that additional amplification or moderation may be caused both by cloud interactions and longwave radiation. One measure of this net effect of snow feedback was found to differ markedly among the 17 climate models, ranging from weak negative feedback in some models to strong positive feedback in others.

The climatology of carbon monoxide and water vapor on Mars as observed by CRISM and modeled by the GEM-Mars general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Michael D.; Daerden, Frank; Neary, Lori; Khayat, Alain

2018-02-01

Radiative transfer modeling of near-infrared spectra taken by the Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars (CRISM) instrument onboard Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) enables the column-integrated abundance of carbon monoxide (CO) and water vapor (H2O) to be retrieved. These results provide a detailed global description of the seasonal and spatial distribution of CO in the Mars atmosphere and new information about the interannual variability of H2O. The CRISM retrievals show the seasonally and globally averaged carbon monoxide mixing ratio to be near 800 ppm, but with strong seasonal variations, especially at high latitudes. At low latitudes, the carbon monoxide mixing ratio varies in response to the mean seasonal cycle of surface pressure and shows little variation with topography. At high latitudes, carbon monoxide is depleted in the summer hemisphere by a factor of two or more, while in the winter hemisphere there is relatively higher mixing ratio in regions with low-lying topography. Water vapor shows only modest interannual variations, with the largest observed difference being unusually dry conditions in the wake of the Mars Year 28 global dust storm. Modeling results from the GEM-Mars general circulation model generally reproduce the observed seasonal and spatial trends and provide insight into the underlying physical processes.

Combined simulation of carbon and water isotopes in a global ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paul, André; Krandick, Annegret; Gebbie, Jake; Marchal, Olivier; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Losch, Martin; Kurahashi-Nakamura, Takasumi; Tharammal, Thejna

2013-04-01

Carbon and water isotopes are included as passive tracers in the MIT general circulation model (MITgcm). The implementation of the carbon isotopes is based on the existing MITgcm carbon cycle component and involves the fractionation processes during photosynthesis and air-sea gas exchange. Special care is given to the use of a real freshwater flux boundary condition in conjunction with the nonlinear free surface of the ocean model. The isotopic content of precipitation and water vapor is obtained from an atmospheric GCM (the NCAR CAM3) and mapped onto the MITgcm grid system, but the kinetic fractionation during evaporation is treated explicitly in the ocean model. In a number of simulations, we test the sensitivity of the carbon isotope distributions to the formulation of fractionation during photosynthesis and compare the results to modern observations of δ13C and Δ14C from GEOSECS, WOCE and CLIVAR. Similarly, we compare the resulting distribution of oxygen isotopes to modern δ18O data from the NASA GISS Global Seawater Oxygen-18 Database. The overall agreement is good, but there are discrepancies in the carbon isotope composition of the surface water and the oxygen isotope composition of the intermediate and deep waters. The combined simulation of carbon and water isotopes in a global ocean model will provide a framework for studying present and past states of ocean circulation such as postulated from deep-sea sediment records.

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 16; Filtering Techniques on a Stretched Grid General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Takacs, Lawrence L.; Sawyer, William; Suarez, Max J. (Editor); Fox-Rabinowitz, Michael S.

1999-01-01

This report documents the techniques used to filter quantities on a stretched grid general circulation model. Standard high-latitude filtering techniques (e.g., using an FFT (Fast Fourier Transformations) to decompose and filter unstable harmonics at selected latitudes) applied on a stretched grid are shown to produce significant distortions of the prognostic state when used to control instabilities near the pole. A new filtering technique is developed which accurately accounts for the non-uniform grid by computing the eigenvectors and eigenfrequencies associated with the stretching. A filter function, constructed to selectively damp those modes whose associated eigenfrequencies exceed some critical value, is used to construct a set of grid-spaced weights which are shown to effectively filter without distortion. Both offline and GCM (General Circulation Model) experiments are shown using the new filtering technique. Finally, a brief examination is also made on the impact of applying the Shapiro filter on the stretched grid.

The Latest on the Venus Thermospheric General Circulation Model: Capabilities and Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brecht, A. S.; Bougher, S. W.; Parkinson, C. D.

2017-01-01

Venus has a complex and dynamic upper atmosphere. This has been observed many times by ground-based, orbiters, probes, and fly-by missions going to other planets. Two over-arching questions are generally asked when examining the Venus upper atmosphere: (1) what creates the complex structure in the atmosphere, and (2) what drives the varying dynamics. A great way to interpret and connect observations to address these questions utilizes numerical modeling; and in the case of the middle and upper atmosphere (above the cloud tops), a 3D hydrodynamic numerical model called the Venus Thermospheric General Circulation Model (VTGCM) can be used. The VTGCM can produce climatological averages of key features in comparison to observations (i.e. nightside temperature, O2 IR nightglow emission). More recently, the VTGCM has been expanded to include new chemical constituents and airglow emissions, as well as new parameterizations to address waves and their impact on the varying global circulation and corresponding airglow distributions.

Tropical Pacific moisture variability: Its detection, synoptic structure and consequences in the general circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcguirk, James P.

1990-01-01

Satellite data analysis tools are developed and implemented for the diagnosis of atmospheric circulation systems over the tropical Pacific Ocean. The tools include statistical multi-variate procedures, a multi-spectral radiative transfer model, and the global spectral forecast model at NMC. Data include in-situ observations; satellite observations from VAS (moisture, infrared and visible) NOAA polar orbiters (including Tiros Operational Satellite System (TOVS) multi-channel sounding data and OLR grids) and scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR); and European Centre for Medium Weather Forecasts (ECHMWF) analyses. A primary goal is a better understanding of the relation between synoptic structures of the area, particularly tropical plumes, and the general circulation, especially the Hadley circulation. A second goal is the definition of the quantitative structure and behavior of all Pacific tropical synoptic systems. Finally, strategies are examined for extracting new and additional information from existing satellite observations. Although moisture structure is emphasized, thermal patterns are also analyzed. Both horizontal and vertical structures are studied and objective quantitative results are emphasized.

What Drives the Variability of the Atlantic Water Circulation in the Arctic Ocean?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lique, C.; Johnson, H. L.

2016-02-01

The Atlantic Water (AW) layer in the Arctic Basin is isolated from the atmosphere by the overlaying surface layer; yet observations of the AW pan-Arctic boundary current have revealed that the velocities in this layer exhibit significant variations on all timescales. Here, analysis of a global ocean/sea ice model hindcast, complemented by experiments performed with an idealized process model, are used to investigate what controls the variability of AW circulation, with a focus on the role of wind forcing. The AW circulation carries the imprint of wind variations, both remotely over the Nordic and Barents seas where they force variability on the AW inflow to the Arctic Basin, and locally over the Arctic Basin through the forcing of the wind-driven Beaufort gyre, which modulates and transfers the wind variability to the AW layer. Our results further suggest that understanding variability in the large amount of heat contained within the AW layer requires a better understanding of the circulation within both AW and surface layers.

On the glacial and interglacial thermohaline circulation and the associated transports of heat and freshwater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballarotta, M.; Falahat, S.; Brodeau, L.; Döös, K.

2014-11-01

The thermohaline circulation (THC) and the oceanic heat and freshwater transports are essential for understanding the global climate system. Streamfunctions are widely used in oceanography to represent the THC and estimate the transport of heat and freshwater. In the present study, the regional and global changes of the THC, the transports of heat and freshwater and the timescale of the circulation between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ≈ 21 kyr ago) and the present-day climate are explored using an Ocean General Circulation Model and streamfunctions projected in various coordinate systems. We found that the LGM tropical circulation is about 10% stronger than under modern conditions due to stronger wind stress. Consequently, the maximum tropical transport of heat is about 20% larger during the LGM. In the North Atlantic basin, the large sea-ice extent during the LGM constrains the Gulf Stream to propagate in a more zonal direction, reducing the transport of heat towards high latitudes by almost 50% and reorganising the freshwater transport. The strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation depends strongly on the coordinate system. It varies between 9 and 16 Sv during the LGM, and between 12 to 19 Sv for the present day. Similar to paleo-proxy reconstructions, a large intrusion of saline Antarctic Bottom Water takes place into the Northern Hemisphere basins and squeezes most of the Conveyor Belt circulation into a shallower part of the ocean. These different haline regimes between the glacial and interglacial period are illustrated by the streamfunctions in latitude-salinity coordinates and thermohaline coordinates. From these diagnostics, we found that the LGM Conveyor Belt circulation is driven by an enhanced salinity contrast between the Atlantic and the Pacific basin. The LGM abyssal circulation lifts and makes the Conveyor Belt cell deviate from the abyssal region, resulting in a ventilated upper layer above a deep stagnant layer, and an Atlantic circulation more isolated from the Pacific. An estimate of the timescale of the circulation reveals a sluggish abyssal circulation during the LGM, and a Conveyor Belt circulation that is more vigorous due to the combination of a stronger wind stress and a shortened circulation route.

Mesoscale mixing of the Denmark Strait Overflow in the Irminger Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koszalka, Inga M.; Haine, Thomas W. N.; Magaldi, Marcello G.

2017-04-01

The Denmark Strait Overflow (DSO) is a major export route for dense waters from the Nordic Seas forming the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, an important element of the climate system. Mixing processes along the DSO pathway influence its volume transport and properties contributing to the variability of the deep overturning circulation. They are poorly sampled by observations, however, which hinders development of a proper DSO representation in global circulation models. We employ a high resolution regional ocean model of the Irminger Basin to quantify impact of the mesoscale flows on DSO mixing focusing on geographical localization and the time-modulation of water property changes. The model reproduces the observed bulk warming of the DSO plume 100-200 km downstream of the Denmark Strait sill. It also reveals that mesoscale variability of the overflow ('DSO-eddies', of 20-30 km extent and a time scale of 2-5 day) modulates water property changes and turbulent mixing, diagnosed with the vertical shear of horizontal velocity and the eddy heat flux divergence. The space-time localization of the DSO mixing and warming and the role of coherent mesoscale structures should be explored by turbulence measurements and factored into the coarse circulation models.

GFDL's ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon Earth System Models. Part I: physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunne, John P.; John, Jasmin G.; Adcroft, Alistair J.; Griffies, Stephen M.; Hallberg, Robert W.; Shevalikova, Elena; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Cooke, William; Dunne, Krista A.; Harrison, Matthew J.; Krasting, John P.; Malyshev, Sergey L.; Milly, P.C.D.; Phillipps, Peter J.; Sentman, Lori A.; Samuels, Bonita L.; Spelman, Michael J.; Winton, Michael; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Zadeh, Niki

2012-01-01

We describe the physical climate formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled carbon-climate Earth System Models, ESM2M and ESM2G. These models demonstrate similar climate fidelity as the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's previous CM2.1 climate model while incorporating explicit and consistent carbon dynamics. The two models differ exclusively in the physical ocean component; ESM2M uses Modular Ocean Model version 4.1 with vertical pressure layers while ESM2G uses Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics with a bulk mixed layer and interior isopycnal layers. Differences in the ocean mean state include the thermocline depth being relatively deep in ESM2M and relatively shallow in ESM2G compared to observations. The crucial role of ocean dynamics on climate variability is highlighted in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation being overly strong in ESM2M and overly weak ESM2G relative to observations. Thus, while ESM2G might better represent climate changes relating to: total heat content variability given its lack of long term drift, gyre circulation and ventilation in the North Pacific, tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans, and depth structure in the overturning and abyssal flows, ESM2M might better represent climate changes relating to: surface circulation given its superior surface temperature, salinity and height patterns, tropical Pacific circulation and variability, and Southern Ocean dynamics. Our overall assessment is that neither model is fundamentally superior to the other, and that both models achieve sufficient fidelity to allow meaningful climate and earth system modeling applications. This affords us the ability to assess the role of ocean configuration on earth system interactions in the context of two state-of-the-art coupled carbon-climate models.

TRANSPORT BY MERIDIONAL CIRCULATIONS IN SOLAR-TYPE STARS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, T. S.; Brummell, N. H., E-mail: tsw25@soe.ucsc.edu

2012-08-20

Transport by meridional flows has significant consequences for stellar evolution, but is difficult to capture in global-scale numerical simulations because of the wide range of timescales involved. Stellar evolution models therefore usually adopt parameterizations for such transport based on idealized laminar or mean-field models. Unfortunately, recent attempts to model this transport in global simulations have produced results that are not consistent with any of these idealized models. In an effort to explain the discrepancies between global simulations and idealized models, here we use three-dimensional local Cartesian simulations of compressible convection to study the efficiency of transport by meridional flows belowmore » a convection zone in several parameter regimes of relevance to the Sun and solar-type stars. In these local simulations we are able to establish the correct ordering of dynamical timescales, although the separation of the timescales remains unrealistic. We find that, even though the generation of internal waves by convective overshoot produces a high degree of time dependence in the meridional flow field, the mean flow has the qualitative behavior predicted by laminar, 'balanced' models. In particular, we observe a progressive deepening, or 'burrowing', of the mean circulation if the local Eddington-Sweet timescale is shorter than the viscous diffusion timescale. Such burrowing is a robust prediction of laminar models in this parameter regime, but has never been observed in any previous numerical simulation. We argue that previous simulations therefore underestimate the transport by meridional flows.« less

The atmospheric ocean: eddies and jets in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.

PubMed

Thompson, Andrew F

2008-12-28

Although the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is the longest and the strongest oceanic current on the Earth and is the primary means of inter-basin exchange, it remains one of the most poorly represented components of global climate models. Accurately describing the circulation of the ACC is made difficult owing to the prominent role that mesoscale eddies and jets, oceanic equivalents of atmospheric storms and storm tracks, have in setting the density structure and transport properties of the current. The successes and limitations of different representations of eddy processes in models of the ACC are considered, with particular attention given to how the circulation responds to changes in wind forcing. The dynamics of energetic eddies and topographically steered jets may both temper and enhance the sensitivity of different aspects of the ACC's circulation to changes in climate.

Winter and summer simulations with the GLAS climate model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shukla, J.; Straus, D.; Randall, D.; Sud, Y.; Marx, L.

1981-01-01

The GLAS climate model is a general circulation model based on the primitive equations in sigma coordinates on a global domain in the presence of orography. The model incorporates parameterizations of the effects of radiation, convection, large scale latent heat release, turbulent and boundary layer fluxes, and ground hydrology. Winter and summer simulations were carried out with this model, and the resulting data are compared to observations.

Coupling of a 3D Finite Element Model of Cardiac Ventricular Mechanics to Lumped Systems Models of the Systemic and Pulmonic Circulation

PubMed Central

Kerckhoffs, Roy C. P.; Neal, Maxwell L.; Gu, Quan; Bassingthwaighte, James B.; Omens, Jeff H.; McCulloch, Andrew D.

2010-01-01

In this study we present a novel, robust method to couple finite element (FE) models of cardiac mechanics to systems models of the circulation (CIRC), independent of cardiac phase. For each time step through a cardiac cycle, left and right ventricular pressures were calculated using ventricular compliances from the FE and CIRC models. These pressures served as boundary conditions in the FE and CIRC models. In succeeding steps, pressures were updated to minimize cavity volume error (FE minus CIRC volume) using Newton iterations. Coupling was achieved when a predefined criterion for the volume error was satisfied. Initial conditions for the multi-scale model were obtained by replacing the FE model with a varying elastance model, which takes into account direct ventricular interactions. Applying the coupling, a novel multi-scale model of the canine cardiovascular system was developed. Global hemodynamics and regional mechanics were calculated for multiple beats in two separate simulations with a left ventricular ischemic region and pulmonary artery constriction, respectively. After the interventions, global hemodynamics changed due to direct and indirect ventricular interactions, in agreement with previously published experimental results. The coupling method allows for simulations of multiple cardiac cycles for normal and pathophysiology, encompassing levels from cell to system. PMID:17111210

Saturn Dynamo Model (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glatzmaier, G. A.

2010-12-01

There has been considerable interest during the past few years about the banded zonal winds and global magnetic field on Saturn (and Jupiter). Questions regarding the depth to which the intense winds extend below the surface and the role they play in maintaining the dynamo continue to be debated. The types of computer models employed to address these questions fall into two main classes: general circulation models (GCMs) based on hydrostatic shallow-water assumptions from the atmospheric and ocean modeling communities and global non-hydrostatic deep convection models from the geodynamo and solar dynamo communities. The latter class can be further divided into Boussinesq models, which do not account for density stratification, and anelastic models, which do. Recent efforts to convert GCMs to deep circulation anelastic models have succeeded in producing fluid flows similar to those obtained from the original deep convection anelastic models. We describe results from one of the original anelastic convective dynamo simulations and compare them to a recent anelastic dynamo benchmark for giant gas planets. This benchmark is based on a polytropic reference state that spans five density scale heights with a radius and rotation rate similar to those of our solar system gas giants. The resulting magnetic Reynolds number is about 3000. Better spatial resolution will be required to produce more realistic predictions that capture the effects of both the density and electrical conductivity stratifications and include enough of the turbulent kinetic energy spectrum. Important additional physics may also be needed in the models. However, the basic models used in all simulation studies of the global dynamics of giant planets will hopefully first be validated by doing these simpler benchmarks.

A Coupled GCM-Cloud Resolving Modeling System, and a Regional Scale Model to Study Precipitation Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2006-01-01

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CFWs. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), and it has started production runs with two years results (1 998 and 1999). In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (microphysical and land processes), (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), and (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications).

The impact of climatological model biases in the North Atlantic jet on predicted future circulation change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, I.

2015-12-01

A long standing bias among global climate models (GCMs) is their incorrect representation of the wintertime circulation of the North Atlantic region. Specifically models tend to exhibit a North Atlantic jet (and associated storm track) that is too zonal, extending across central Europe, when it should tilt northward toward Scandinavia. GCM's consistently predict substantial changes in the large scale circulation in this region, consisting of a localized anti-cyclonic circulation, centered over the Mediterranean and accompanied by increased aridity there and increased storminess over Northern Europe.Here, we present preliminary results from experiments that are designed to address the question of what the impact of the climatological circulation biases might be on this predicted future response. Climate change experiments will be compared in two versions of the Community Earth System Model: the first is a free running version of the model, as typically used in climate prediction; the second is a bias corrected version of the model in which a seasonally varying cycle of bias correction tendencies are applied to the wind and temperature fields. These bias correction tendencies are designed to account for deficiencies in the fast parameterized processes, with an aim to push the model toward a more realistic climatology.While these experiments come with the caveat that they assume the bias correction tendencies will remain constant with time, they allow for an initial assessment, through controlled experiments, of the impact that biases in the climatological circulation can have on future predictions in this region. They will also motivate future work that can make use of the bias correction tendencies to understand the underlying physical processes responsible for the incorrect tilt of the jet.

Anticipated Improvements to Net Surface Freshwater Fluxes from GPM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.

2005-01-01

Evaporation and precipitation over the oceans play very important roles in the global water cycle, upper-ocean heat budget, ocean dynamics, and coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics. In the conventional representation of the terrestrial water cycle, the assumed role of the oceans is to act as near-infinite reservoirs of water with the main drivers of the water cycle being land- atmosphere interactions in which excess precipitation (P) over evaporation (E) is returned to the oceans as surface runoff and baseflow. Whereas this perspective is valid for short space and time scales -- fundamental principles, available observed estimates, and results from models indicate that the oceans play a far more important role in the large-scale water cycle at seasonal and longer timescales. Approximately 70-80% of the total global evaporation and precipitation occurs over oceans. Moreover, latent heat release into the atmosphere over the oceans is the major heat source driving global atmospheric circulations, with the moisture transported by circulations from oceans to continents being the major source of water precipitating over land. Notably, the major impediment in understanding and modeling the oceans role in the global water cycle is the lack of reliable net surface freshwater flux estimates (E - P fluxes) at the salient spatial and temporal resolutions, i.e., consistent coupled weekly to monthly E - P gridded datasets.

Pacific deep circulation and ventilation controlled by tidal mixing away from the sea bottom.

PubMed

Oka, Akira; Niwa, Yoshihiro

2013-01-01

Vertical mixing in the ocean is a key driver of the global ocean thermohaline circulation, one of the most important factors controlling past and future climate change. Prior observational and theoretical studies have focused on intense tidal mixing near the sea bottom (near-field mixing). However, ocean general circulation models that employ a parameterization of near-field mixing significantly underestimate the strength of the Pacific thermohaline circulation. Here we demonstrate that tidally induced mixing away from the sea bottom (far-field mixing) is essential in controlling the Pacific thermohaline circulation. Via the addition of far-field mixing to a widely used tidal parameterization, we successfully simulate the Pacific thermohaline circulation. We also propose that far-field mixing is indispensable for explaining the presence of the world ocean's oldest water in the eastern North Pacific Ocean. Our findings suggest that far-field mixing controls ventilation of the deep Pacific Ocean, a process important for ocean carbon and biogeochemical cycles.

Intercomparison of hydrologic processes in global climate models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, W. K.-M.; Sud, Y. C.; Kim, J.-H.

1995-01-01

In this report, we address the intercomparison of precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and surface hydrologic forcing (P-E) for 23 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) general circulation models (GCM's) including relevant observations, over a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The intercomparison includes global and hemispheric means, latitudinal profiles, selected area means for the tropics and extratropics, ocean and land, respectively. In addition, we have computed anomaly pattern correlations among models and observations for different seasons, harmonic analysis for annual and semiannual cycles, and rain-rate frequency distribution. We also compare the joint influence of temperature and precipitation on local climate using the Koeppen climate classification scheme.

Martian aeolian features and deposits - Comparisons with general circulation model results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greeley, R.; Skypeck, A.; Pollack, J. B.

1993-02-01

The relationships between near-surface winds and the distribution of wind-related features are investigated by means of a general circulation model of Mars' atmosphere. Predictions of wind surface stress as a function of season and dust optical depth are used to investigate the distribution and orientation of wind streaks, yardangs, and rock abundance on the surface. The global distribution of rocks on the surface correlates well with predicted wind stress, particularly during the dust storm season. The rocky areas are sites of strong winds, suggesting that fine material is swept away by the wind, leaving rocks and coarser material behind.

Ionospheric Outflow in the Magnetosphere: Circulation and Consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welling, D. T.; Liemohn, M. W.

2017-12-01

Including ionospheric outflow in global magnetohydrodynamic models of near-Earth outer space has become an important step towards understanding the role of this plasma source in the magnetosphere. Such simulations have revealed the importance of outflow in populating the plasma sheet and inner magnetosphere as a function of outflow source characteristics. More importantly, these experiments have shown how outflow can control global dynamics, including tail dynamics and dayside reconnection rate. The broad impact of light and heavy ion outflow can create non-linear feedback loops between outflow and the magnetosphere. This paper reviews some of the most important revelations from global magnetospheric modeling that includes ionospheric outflow of light and heavy ions. It also introduces new advances in outflow modeling and coupling outflow to the magnetosphere.

The onset of modern-like Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at the Eocene-Oligocene transition: Evidence, causes, and possible implications for global cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abelson, Meir; Erez, Jonathan

2017-06-01

A compilation of benthic δ18O from the whole Atlantic and the Southern Ocean (Atlantic sector) shows two major jumps in the interbasinal gradient of δ18O (Δδ18O) during the Eocene and the Oligocene: one at ˜40 Ma and the second concomitant with the isotopic event of the Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT), ˜33.7 Ma ago. From previously published circulation models and proxies, we show that the first Δδ18O jump reflects the thermal isolation of Antarctica associated with the proto-Antarctic circumpolar current (ACC). The second marks the onset of interhemispheric northern-sourced circulation cell, similar to the modern Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The onset of AMOC-like circulation slightly preceded (100-300 kyr) the EOT, as we show by the high-resolution profiles of δ18O and δ13C previously published from DSDP/ODP sites in the Southern Ocean and South Atlantic. These events coincide with the onset of antiestuarine circulation between the Nordic seas and the North Atlantic which started around the EOT and may be connected to the deepening of the Greenland-Scotland Ridge. We suggest that while the shallow proto-ACC supplied the energy for deep ocean convection in the Southern Hemisphere, the onset of the interhemispheric northern circulation cell was due to the significant EOT intensification of deepwater formation in the North Atlantic driven by the Nordic antiestuarine circulation. This onset of the interhemispheric northern-sourced circulation cell could have prompted the EOT global cooling.