Global Ocean Circulation in Thermohaline Coordinates and Small-scale and Mesoscale mixing: An Inverse Estimate.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groeskamp, S.; Zika, J. D.; McDougall, T. J.; Sloyan, B.

2016-02-01

I will present results of a new inverse technique that infers small-scale turbulent diffusivities and mesoscale eddy diffusivities from an ocean climatology of Salinity (S) and Temperature (T) in combination with surface freshwater and heat fluxes.First, the ocean circulation is represented in (S,T) coordinates, by the diathermohaline streamfunction. Framing the ocean circulation in (S,T) coordinates, isolates the component of the circulation that is directly related to water-mass transformation.Because water-mass transformation is directly related to fluxes of salt and heat, this framework allows for the formulation of an inverse method in which the diathermohaline streamfunction is balanced with known air-sea forcing and unknown mixing. When applying this inverse method to observations, we obtain observationally based estimates for both the streamfunction and the mixing. The results reveal new information about the component of the global ocean circulation due to water-mass transformation and its relation to surface freshwater and heat fluxes and small-scale and mesoscale mixing. The results provide global constraints on spatially varying patterns of diffusivities, in order to obtain a realistic overturning circulation. We find that mesoscale isopycnal mixing is much smaller than expected. These results are important for our understanding of the relation between global ocean circulation and mixing and may lead to improved parameterisations in numerical ocean models.

Global QBO in circulation and ozone. Part 2: A simple mechanistic model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tung, K. K.; Yang, H.

1994-01-01

Although the phenomenon of equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation is relatively well understood, the problem of how the equatorially confined quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) wave forcing can induce a signal in the extratropics of comparable or larger magnitude remains unsolved. A simple mechanistic model is constructed to provide a quantitative test of the hypothesis that the phenomenon of extratropical QBO is mainly caused by an anomalous seasonal circulation induced by an anomalous Eliassen-Palm (E-P) flux divergence. The anomaly in E-P flux divergence may be caused in turn by the relative poleward and downward shift of the region of irreversible mixing (breaking) of the extratropical planetary waves during the easterly phase of the equatorial QBO as compared to its westerly phase. The hemispheric nature of the anomaly wave forcing in solstice seasons (viz., no wave breaking in the summer hemisphere) induces a global circulation anomaly that projects predominantly into the first few zonal Hough modes of Plumb. Such a global QBO circulation pattern, although difficult to measure directly, is reflected in the distribution of stratospheric tracers transported by it. Our model produces a global pattern of QBO anomaly in column ozone that appears to account for much of the unfiltered interannual variability in the column ozone observed by the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) instrument aboard the Nimbus satellite. Furthermore, the model produces the characteristic spectrum of the observation with peaks at periods of 20 and 30 months.

Global QBO in circulation and ozone. Part 2: A simple mechanistic model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tung, K.K.; Yang, H.

1994-10-01

Although the phenomenon of equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation is relatively well understood, the problem of how the equatorially confined quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) wave forcing can induce a signal in the extratropics of comparable or larger magnitude remains unsolved. A simple mechanistic model is constructed to provide a quantitative test of the hypothesis that the phenomenon of extratropical QBO is mainly caused by an anomalous seasonal circulation induced by an anomalous Eliassen-Palm (E-P) flux divergence. The anomaly in E-P flux divergence may be caused in turn by the relative poleward and downward shift of the region of irreversible mixing (breaking) of themore » extratropical planetary waves during the easterly phase of the equatorial QBO as compared to its westerly phase. The hemispheric nature of the anomaly wave forcing in solstice seasons (viz., no wave breaking in the summer hemisphere) induces a global circulation anomaly that projects predominantly into the first few zonal Hough modes of Plumb. Such a global QBO circulation pattern, although difficult to measure directly, is reflected in the distribution of stratospheric tracers transported by it. Our model produces a global pattern of QBO anomaly in column ozone that appears to account for much of the unfiltered interannual variability in the column ozone observed by the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) instrument aboard the Nimbus satellite. Furthermore, the model produces the characteristic spectrum of the observation with peaks at periods of 20 and 30 months.« less

Mid-latitude afforestation shifts general circulation and tropical precipitation.

PubMed

Swann, Abigail L S; Fung, Inez Y; Chiang, John C H

2012-01-17

We show in climate model experiments that large-scale afforestation in northern mid-latitudes warms the Northern Hemisphere and alters global circulation patterns. An expansion of dark forests increases the absorption of solar energy and increases surface temperature, particularly in regions where the land surface is unable to compensate with latent heat flux due to water limitation. Atmospheric circulation redistributes the anomalous energy absorbed in the northern hemisphere, in particular toward the south, through altering the Hadley circulation, resulting in the northward displacement of the tropical rain bands. Precipitation decreases over parts of the Amazon basin affecting productivity and increases over the Sahel and Sahara regions in Africa. We find that the response of climate to afforestation in mid-latitudes is determined by the amount of soil moisture available to plants with the greatest warming found in water-limited regions. Mid-latitude afforestation is found to have a small impact on modeled global temperatures and on global CO(2), but regional heating from the increase in forest cover is capable of driving unintended changes in circulation and precipitation. The ability of vegetation to affect remote circulation has implications for strategies for climate mitigation.

Decadal variability of precipitation over Western North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, D.R.; Dettinger, M.D.; Diaz, Henry F.; Graham, N.E.

1998-01-01

Decadal (>7- yr period) variations of precipitation over western North America account for 20%-50% of the variance of annual precipitation. Spatially, the decadal variability is broken into several regional [O(1000 km)] components. These decadal variations are contributed by fluctuations in precipitation from seasons of the year that vary from region to region and that are not necessarily concentrated in the wettest season(s) alone. The precipitation variations are linked to various decadal atmospheric circulation and SST anomaly patterns where scales range from regional to global scales and that emphasize tropical or extratropical connections, depending upon which precipitation region is considered. Further, wet or dry decades are associated with changes in frequency of at least a few short-period circulation 'modes' such as the Pacific-North American pattern. Precipitation fluctuations over the southwestern United States and the Saskatchewan region of western Canada are associated with extensive shifts of sea level pressure and SST anomalies, suggesting that they are components of low-frequency precipitation variability from global-scale climate proceses. Consistent with the global scale of its pressure and SST connection, the Southwest decadal precipitation is aligned with opposing precipitation fluctuations in northern Africa.Decadal (>7-yr period) variations of precipitation over western North America account for 20%-50% of the variance of annual precipitation. Spatially, the decadal variability is broken into several regional [O(1000 km)] components. These decadal variations are contributed by fluctuations in precipitation from seasons of the year that vary from region to region and that are not necessarily concentrated in the wettest season(s) alone. The precipitation variations are linked to various decadal atmospheric circulation and SST anomaly patterns where scales range from regional to global scales and that emphasize tropical or extratropical connections, depending upon which precipitation region is considered. Further, wet or dry decades are associated with changes in frequency of at least a few short-period circulation `modes' such as the Pacific-North American pattern. Precipitation fluctuations over the southwestern United States and the Saskatchewan region of western Canada are associated with extensive shifts of sea level pressure and SST anomalies, suggesting that they are components of low-frequency precipitation variability from global-scale climate processes. Consistent with the global scale of its pressure and SST connection, the Southwest decadal precipitation is aligned with opposing precipitation fluctuations in northern Africa.

Atmospheric Diabatic Heating in Different Weather States and the General Circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rossow, William B.; Zhang, Yuanchong; Tselioudis, George

2016-01-01

Analysis of multiple global satellite products identifies distinctive weather states of the atmosphere from the mesoscale pattern of cloud properties and quantifies the associated diabatic heating/cooling by radiative flux divergence, precipitation, and surface sensible heat flux. The results show that the forcing for the atmospheric general circulation is a very dynamic process, varying strongly at weather space-time scales, comprising relatively infrequent, strong heating events by ''stormy'' weather and more nearly continuous, weak cooling by ''fair'' weather. Such behavior undercuts the value of analyses of time-averaged energy exchanges in observations or numerical models. It is proposed that an analysis of the joint time-related variations of the global weather states and the general circulation on weather space-time scales might be used to establish useful ''feedback like'' relationships between cloud processes and the large-scale circulation.

Atmospheric Teleconnection over Eurasia Induced by Aerosol Radiative Forcing during Boreal Spring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Maeng-Ki; Lau, William K. M.; Chin, Mian; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Sud, Y. C.; Walker, Greg K.

2006-01-01

The direct effects of aerosols on global and regional climate during boreal spring are investigated based on numerical simulations with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM) with Microphyics of Clouds with the Relaxed Arakawa Schubert Scheme (McRAS), using aerosol forcing functions derived from the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART). The authors find that anomalous atmospheric heat sources induced by absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) excite a planetary-scale teleconnection pattern in sea level pressure, temperature, and geopotential height spanning North Africa through Eurasia to the North Pacific. Surface cooling due to direct effects of aerosols is found in the vicinity and downstream of the aerosol source regions, that is, South Asia, East Asia, and northern and western Africa. Significant atmospheric heating is found in regions with large loading of dust (over northern Africa and the Middle East) and black carbon (over Southeast Asia). Paradoxically, the most pronounced feature in aerosol-induced surface temperature is an east west dipole anomaly with strong cooling over the Caspian Sea and warming over central and northeastern Asia, where aerosol concentrations are low. Analyses of circulation anomalies show that the dipole anomaly is a part of an atmospheric teleconnection pattern driven by atmospheric heating anomalies induced by absorbing aerosols in the source regions, but the influence was conveyed globally through barotropic energy dispersion and sustained by feedback processes associated with the regional circulations. The surface temperature signature associated with the aerosol-induced teleconnection bears striking resemblance to the spatial pattern of observed long-term trend in surface temperature over Eurasia. Additionally, the boreal spring wave train pattern is similar to that reported by Fukutomi et al. associated with the boreal summer precipitation seesaw between eastern and western Siberia. The results of this study raise the possibility that global aerosol forcing during boreal spring may play an important role in spawning atmospheric teleconnections that affect regional and global climates.

Oceanic Fluxes of Mass, Heat and Freshwater: A Global Estimate and Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

MacDonald, Alison Marguerite

1995-01-01

Data from fifteen globally distributed, modern, high resolution, hydrographic oceanic transects are combined in an inverse calculation using large scale box models. The models provide estimates of the global meridional heat and freshwater budgets and are used to examine the sensitivity of the global circulation, both inter and intra-basin exchange rates, to a variety of external constraints provided by estimates of Ekman, boundary current and throughflow transports. A solution is found which is consistent with both the model physics and the global data set, despite a twenty five year time span and a lack of seasonal consistency among the data. The overall pattern of the global circulation suggested by the models is similar to that proposed in previously published local studies and regional reviews. However, significant qualitative and quantitative differences exist. These differences are due both to the model definition and to the global nature of the data set.

Change of ocean circulation in the East Asian Marginal Seas under different climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Min, Hong Sik; Kim, Cheol-Ho; Kim, Young Ho

2010-05-01

Global climate models do not properly resolve an ocean environment in the East Asian Marginal Seas (EAMS), which is mainly due to a poor representation of the topography in continental shelf region and a coarse spatial resolution. To examine a possible change of ocean environment under global warming in the EAMS, therefore we used North Pacific Regional Ocean Model. The regional model was forced by atmospheric conditions extracted from the simulation results of the global climate models for the 21st century projected by the IPCC SRES A1B scenario as well as the 20th century. The North Pacific Regional Ocean model simulated a detailed pattern of temperature change in the EAMS showing locally different rising or falling trend under the future climate condition, while the global climate models simulated a simple pattern like an overall increase. Changes of circulation pattern in the EAMS such as an intrusion of warm water into the Yellow Sea as well as the Kuroshio were also well resolved. Annual variations in volume transports through the Taiwan Strait and the Korea Strait under the future condition were simulated to be different from those under present condition. Relative ratio of volume transport through the Soya Strait to the Tsugaru Strait also responded to the climate condition.

Projected climate change for the coastal plain region of Georgia, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climatic patterns for the Coastal Plain region of Georgia, USA, centered on Tifton, Georgia (31 28 30N, 83 31 54W) were examined for long term patterns in precipitation and air temperature. Climate projections based upon output from seven Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and three future Green Hous...

Wind Streaks on Venus: Clues to Atmospheric Circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greeley, Ronald; Schubert, Gerald; Limonadi, Daniel; Bender, Kelly C.; Newman, William I.; Thomas, Peggy E.; Weitz, Catherine M.; Wall, Stephen D.

1994-01-01

Magellan images reveal surface features on Venus attributed to wind processes. Sand dunes, wind-sculpted hills, and more than 5830 wind streaks have been identified. The streaks serve as local "wind vanes," representing wind direction at the time of streak formation and allowing the first global mapping of near-surface wind patterns on Venus. Wind streaks are oriented both toward the equator and toward the west. When streaks associated with local transient events, such as impact cratering, are deleted, the westward component is mostly lost but the equatorward component remains. This pattern is consistent with a Hadley circulation of the lower atmosphere.

HISTORICAL CHANGES IN GLOBAL SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERNS, MID-ATLANTIC CLIMATE STREAM FLOW AND NUTRIENT FLUXES TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY

EPA Science Inventory

The rate of change in Northern Hemisphere temperature in the past century strongly suggests that we are now in a period of rapid global climate change. Also, the climate in the mid-Atlantic is quite sensitive to larger scale climate variation, which affects the frequency and seve...

Synoptic circulation and temperature pattern during severe wildland fires

Treesearch

Warren E. Heilman

1996-01-01

Large-scale changes in the atmosphere associated with a globally changed climate and changes in climatic variability may have important regional impacts on the frequency and severity of wildland fires in the future.

Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.

PubMed

Johnson, Nathaniel C; Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Li, Xichen

2018-04-30

The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature.

Planetary circulations in the presence of transient and self-induced heating

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salby, Murry L.; Garcia, Rolando R.

1993-01-01

The research program focuses on large-scale circulations and their interaction with the global convective pattern. An 11-year record of global cloud imagery and contemporaneous fields of motion and temperature have been used to investigate organized convection and coherent variability of the tropical circulation operating on intraseasonal time scales. This study provides a detailed portrait of tropical variability associated with the so-called Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). It reveals the nature, geographical distribution, and seasonality of discrete convective signal, which is a measure of feedback between the circulation and the convective pattern. That discrete spectral behavior has been evaluated in light of natural variability of the ITCZ associated with climatological convection. A composite signature of the MJO, based on cross-covariance statistics of cloud cover, motion, and temperature, has been constructed to characterize the lifecycle of the disturbance in terms of these properties. The composite behavior has also been used to investigate the influence the MJO exerts on the zonal-mean circulation and the involvement of the MJO in transfers of momentum between the atmosphere and the solid Earth. The aforementioned observational studies have led to the production of two animations. One reveals the convective signal in band-pass filtered OLR and compares it to climatological convection. The other is a 3-dimensional visualization of the composite lifecycle of the MJO. With a clear picture of the MJO in hand, feedback between the circulation and the convective pattern can be diagnosed meaningfully in numerical simulations. This process is being explored in calculations with the linearized primitive equations on the sphere in the presence of realistic stability and shear. The numerical framework represents climatological convection as a space-time stochastic process and wave-induced convection in terms of the vertically-integrated moisture flux convergence. In these calculations, frictional convergence near the equator emerges as a key to feedback between the circulation and the convective pattern. At low latitudes, nearly geostrophic balance in the boundary layer gives way to frictional balance. This shifts the wave-induced convection into phase with the temperature anomaly and allows the attending heating to feed back positively onto the circulation. The calculations successfully reproduce the salient features of the MJO. They are being used to understand the growth and decay phases of the composite lifecycle and the conditions that favor amplification of the MJO.

Global Carbon Dioxide Transport from AIRS Data, July 2009

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-11-09

Created with data acquired by JPL Atmospheric Infrared Sounder instrument during July 2009 this image shows large-scale patterns of carbon dioxide concentrations that are transported around Earth by the general circulation of the atmosphere.

Global Atmospheric Heat Distributions Observed from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Bing; Fan, Tai-Fang

2009-01-01

This study focuses on the observations of global atmospheric heat distributions using satellite measurements. Major heat components such as radiation energy, latent heat and sensible heat are considered. The uncertainties and error sources are assessed. Results show that the atmospheric heat is basically balanced, and the observed patterns of radiation and latent heat from precipitation are clearly related to general circulation.

Conveying Global Circulation Patterns in HDTV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardiner, N.; Janowiak, J.; Kinzler, R.; Trakinski, V.

2006-12-01

The American Museum of Natural History has partnered with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to educate general audiences about weather and climate using high definition video broadcasts built from half-hourly global mosaics of infrared (IR) data from five geostationary satellites. The dataset being featured was developed by NCEP to improve precipitation estimates from microwave data that have finer spatial resolution but poorer temporal coverage. The IR data span +/-60 degrees latitude and show circulation patterns at sufficient resolution to teach informal science center visitors about both weather and climate events and concepts. Design and editorial principles for this media program have been guided by lessons learned from production and annual updates of visualizations that cover eight themes in both biological and Earth system sciences. Two formative evaluations on two dates, including interviews and written surveys of 480 museum visitors ranging in age from 13 to over 60, helped refine the design and implementation of the weather and climate program and demonstrated that viewers understood the program's initial literacy objectives, including: (1) conveying the passage of time and currency of visualized data; (2) geographic relationships inherent to atmospheric circulation patterns; and (3) the authenticity of visualized data, i.e., their origin from earth-orbiting satellites. Surveys also indicated an interest and willingness to learn more about weather and climate principles and events. Expanded literacy goals guide ongoing, biweekly production and distribution of global cloud visualization pieces that reach combined audiences of approximately 10 million. Two more rounds of evaluation are planned over the next two years to assess the effectiveness of the media program in addressing these expanded literacy goals.

La Niña diversity and Northwest Indian Ocean Rim teleconnections

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoell, Andrew; Funk, Christopher C.; Barlow, Mathew

2014-01-01

The differences in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) expressions of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of the same phase have been linked with different global atmospheric circulation patterns. This study examines the dynamical forcing of precipitation during October–December (OND) and March–May (MAM) over East Africa and during December–March (DJFM) over Central-Southwest Asia for 1950–2010 associated with four tropical Pacific SST patterns characteristic of La Niña events, the cold phase of ENSO. The self-organizing map method along with a statistical distinguishability test was used to isolate La Niña events, and seasonal precipitation forcing was investigated in terms of the tropical overturning circulation and thermodynamic and moisture budgets. Recent La Niña events with strong opposing SST anomalies between the central and western Pacific Ocean (phases 3 and 4), force the strongest global circulation modifications and drought over the Northwest Indian Ocean Rim. Over East Africa during MAM and OND, subsidence is forced by an enhanced tropical overturning circulation and precipitation reductions are exacerbated by increases in moisture flux divergence. Over Central-Southwest Asia during DJFM, the thermodynamic forcing of subsidence is primarily responsible for precipitation reductions, with moisture flux divergence acting as a secondary mechanism to reduce precipitation. Eastern Pacific La Niña events in the absence of west Pacific SST anomalies (phases 1 and 2), are associated with weaker global teleconnections, particularly over the Indian Ocean Rim. The weak regional teleconnections result in statistically insignificant precipitation modifications over East Africa and Central-Southwest Asia.

Global Carbon Dioxide Transport from AIRS Data, July 2008

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-09-24

This image was created with data acquired by JPLa Atmospheric Infrared Sounder during July 2008. The image shows large scale patterns of carbon dioxide concentrations that are transported around the Earth by the general circulation of the atmosphere.

Western Pacific hydroclimate linked to global climate variability over the past two millennia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffiths, Michael L.; Kimbrough, Alena K.; Gagan, Michael K.; Drysdale, Russell N.; Cole, Julia E.; Johnson, Kathleen R.; Zhao, Jian-Xin; Cook, Benjamin I.; Hellstrom, John C.; Hantoro, Wahyoe S.

2016-06-01

Interdecadal modes of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere circulation have a strong influence on global temperature, yet the extent to which these phenomena influence global climate on multicentury timescales is still poorly known. Here we present a 2,000-year, multiproxy reconstruction of western Pacific hydroclimate from two speleothem records for southeastern Indonesia. The composite record shows pronounced shifts in monsoon rainfall that are antiphased with precipitation records for East Asia and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. These meridional and zonal patterns are best explained by a poleward expansion of the Australasian Intertropical Convergence Zone and weakening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) between ~1000 and 1500 CE Conversely, an equatorward contraction of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and strengthened PWC occurred between ~1500 and 1900 CE. Our findings, together with climate model simulations, highlight the likelihood that century-scale variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature.

Evaluation of Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment Products on South Florida Nested Simulations with the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

Ocean Model 7:285-322 Halliwell GR Jr, Weisberg RH, Mayer DA (2003) A synthetic float analysis of upper-limb meridional overturning circulation ...encompasses a variety of coastal regions (the broad Southwest Florida shelf, the narrow Atlantic Keys shelf, the shallow Florida Bay, and Biscayne...products. The results indicate that the successful hindcasting of circulation patterns in a coastal area that is characterized by complex topography and

Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Temperature Extremes as a Basis for Model Evaluation: Methodological Overview and Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, P. C.; Broccoli, A. J.; Waliser, D. E.; Lintner, B. R.; Neelin, J. D.

2015-12-01

Anomalous large-scale circulation patterns often play a key role in the occurrence of temperature extremes. For example, large-scale circulation can drive horizontal temperature advection or influence local processes that lead to extreme temperatures, such as by inhibiting moderating sea breezes, promoting downslope adiabatic warming, and affecting the development of cloud cover. Additionally, large-scale circulation can influence the shape of temperature distribution tails, with important implications for the magnitude of future changes in extremes. As a result of the prominent role these patterns play in the occurrence and character of extremes, the way in which temperature extremes change in the future will be highly influenced by if and how these patterns change. It is therefore critical to identify and understand the key patterns associated with extremes at local to regional scales in the current climate and to use this foundation as a target for climate model validation. This presentation provides an overview of recent and ongoing work aimed at developing and applying novel approaches to identifying and describing the large-scale circulation patterns associated with temperature extremes in observations and using this foundation to evaluate state-of-the-art global and regional climate models. Emphasis is given to anomalies in sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height over North America using several methods to identify circulation patterns, including self-organizing maps and composite analysis. Overall, evaluation results suggest that models are able to reproduce observed patterns associated with temperature extremes with reasonable fidelity in many cases. Model skill is often highest when and where synoptic-scale processes are the dominant mechanisms for extremes, and lower where sub-grid scale processes (such as those related to topography) are important. Where model skill in reproducing these patterns is high, it can be inferred that extremes are being simulated for plausible physical reasons, boosting confidence in future projections of temperature extremes. Conversely, where model skill is identified to be lower, caution should be exercised in interpreting future projections.

Biogeography in the air: fungal diversity over land and oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fröhlich-Nowoisky, J.; Burrows, S. M.; Xie, Z.; Engling, G.; Solomon, P. A.; Fraser, M. P.; Mayol-Bracero, O. L.; Artaxo, P.; Begerow, D.; Conrad, R.; Andreae, M. O.; Després, V. R.; Pöschl, U.

2012-03-01

Biogenic aerosols are relevant for the Earth system, climate, and public health on local, regional, and global scales. Up to now, however, little is known about the diversity and biogeography of airborne microorganisms. We present the first DNA-based analysis of airborne fungi on global scales, showing pronounced geographic patterns and boundaries. In particular we find that the ratio of species richness between Basidiomycota and Ascomycota is much higher in continental air than in marine air. This may be an important difference between the "blue ocean" and "green ocean" regimes in the formation of clouds and precipitation, for which fungal spores can act as nuclei. Our findings also suggest that air flow patterns and the global atmospheric circulation are important for the understanding of global changes in biodiversity.

Relationships between large-scale circulation patterns and carbon dioxide exchange by a deciduous forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jingyong; Wu, Lingyun; Huang, Gang; Notaro, Michael

2011-02-01

In this study, we focus on a deciduous forest in central Massachusetts and investigate the relationships between global climate indices and CO2 exchange using eddy-covariance flux measurements from 1992 to 2007. Results suggest that large-scale circulation patterns influence the annual CO2 exchange in the forest through their effects on the local surface climate. Annual gross ecosystem exchange (GEE) in the forest is closely associated with spring El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), previous fall Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and previous winter East Pacific-North Pacific (EP-NP) pattern. Annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE) responds to previous fall AMO and PDO, while annual respiration (R) is impacted by previous fall ENSO and Pacific/North American Oscillation (PNA). Regressions based on these relationships are developed to simulate the annual GEE, NEE, and R. To avoid problems of multicollinearity, we compute a "Composite Index for GEE (CIGEE)" based on a linear combination of spring ENSO and PDO, fall AMO, and winter EP-NP and a "Composite Index for R (CIR)" based on a linear combination of fall ENSO and PNA. CIGEE, CIR, and fall AMO and PDO can explain 41, 27, and 40% of the variance of the annual GEE, R, and NEE, respectively. We further apply the methodology to two other northern midlatitude forests and find that interannual variabilities in NEE of the two forests are largely controlled by large-scale circulation patterns. This study suggests that global climate indices provide the potential for predicting CO2 exchange variability in the northern midlatitude forests.

The climate of Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haberle, R. M.

1986-05-01

The composition of the primitive Martian atmosphere and its development into the present environment are described. The primitive atmosphere consisted of water vapor, carbon dioxide, and nitrogen released from rocks; the greenhouse effect which maintained the surface temperature above the frost point of water is examined. Volcanic activity reduced the greenhouse effect and along with CO2 removal from the atmosphere caused a lowering of the planet temperature. The global circulation patterns on earth and Mars are compared; the similarities in the circulation patterns and Mars' seasonal variations are studied. The carbon dioxide and water cycles on Mars are analyzed; the carbon dioxide cycle determines seasonal variations in surface pressure and the behavior of the water cycle. The behavior of the atmospheric dust and the relationship between the seasonal dust cycle and Hadley circulation are investigated. The periodic variations in the three orbital parameters of Mars, which affect the climate by changing the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of incoming solar energy are discussed

Large-scale circulation patterns, instability factors and global precipitation modeling as influenced by external forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bundel, A.; Kulikova, I.; Kruglova, E.; Muravev, A.

2003-04-01

The scope of the study is to estimate the relationship between large-scale circulation regimes, various instability indices and global precipitation with different boundary conditions, considered as external forcing. The experiments were carried out in the ensemble-prediction framework of the dynamic-statistical monthly forecast scheme run in the Hydrometeorological Research Center of Russia every ten days. The extension to seasonal intervals makes it necessary to investigate the role of slowly changing boundary conditions among which the sea surface temperature (SST) may be defined as the most effective factor. Continuous integrations of the global spectral T41L15 model for the whole year 2000 (starting from January 1) were performed with the climatic SST and the Reynolds Archive SSTs. Monthly values of the SST were projected on the year days using spline interpolation technique. First, the global precipitation values in experiments were compared to the GPCP (Global Precipitation Climate Program) daily observation data. Although the global mean precipitation is underestimated by the model, some large-scale regional amounts correspond to the real ones (e.g. for Europe) fairly well. On the whole, however, anomaly phases failed to be reproduced. The precipitation averaged over the whole land revealed a greater sensitivity to the SSTs than that over the oceans. The wavelet analysis was applied to separate the low- and high-frequency signal of the SST influence on the large-scale circulation and precipitation. A derivative of the Wallace-Gutzler teleconnection index for the East-Atlantic oscillation was taken as the circulation characteristic. The daily oscillation index values and precipitation amounts averaged over Europe were decomposed using wavelet approach with different “mother wavelets” up to approximation level 3. It was demonstrated that an increase in the precipitation amount over Europe was associated with the zonal flow intensification over the Northern Atlantic when the real SSTs were used. Blocking structures in the circulation caused decreasing precipitation amounts. The wavelet approach gave a more distinctive discrimination in the modeled circulation and precipitation patterns versus different external forcing than a number of other statistical techniques. Several atmospheric instability indices (e.g. the Phillips like parameters, Richardson number etc) were additionally used in post-processing for a more detailed validation of the modeled large-scale and total precipitation amounts. It was shown that a reasonable variety of instability indices must be used for such validations and for precipitation output corrections. Their statistical stability may be substantiated only on the ensemble modeling basis. This work was performed with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (02-05-64655).

Study of the lower stratospheric thermal structure and total ozone from Nimbus-4 IRIS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prabhakara, C.

1976-01-01

The global distribution of temperature in the stratosphere from 100 to 10 mbar and the total ozone in the atmosphere are remotely sensed from the Nimbus-4 IRIS measurements for a period of about one year. The temperature and ozone data are presented in the form of monthly mean global maps. The standard deviations of temperature and ozone with respect to zonal averages are calculated. The mean and the variable state of the stratosphere are discussed with the help of these observations. The lower stratosphere in the tropical regions reveals a significant wave number one pattern in the circulation. The Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric winter circulation regimes display a different behavior apparently due to the ocean and orographic differences.

New Waves in Marine Science Symposium: Threats to the Marine Environment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allen, Betty, Comp.

1989-01-01

Presented are the abstracts from three research projects involving global circulation patterns, marine debris, and marine sanctuaries. Five sets of activities on environmental threats are included, one each for grades K-2, 3-5, 6-8 and 9-12, and informal education. (CW)

Global Three-Dimensional Atmospheric Structure of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as Revealed by Two Reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stuckman, Scott Seele

This study is a first documentation of the structure of the entire AMO life cycle, including extreme and transition phases, throughout the global troposphere. The extreme phase climate signature is constructed based on the strongest and most robust patterns identified by two methods (linear correlation and composite analyses), two reanalysis datasets (the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research and Twentieth Century Reanalysis, supplemented with precipitation data from the University of Delaware dataset) and data from two consecutive AMO cycles. The first characterization of the AMO transition phases uses a transition index based on the time derivative of AMO index. When trying to compare the zonal mean structure of AMO with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a literature search showed the zonal mean structure of ENSO remained unpublished, despite the otherwise generally well-characterized horizontal structures. Therefore this study includes a seasonal analysis of the ENSO zonal mean structure during boreal winter (DJF) and summer (JJA). The AMO extreme phase is characterized by a blend of low and middle latitude centers of action, with the associated tilt of geopotential height anomaly patterns consistent with off-equatorial heating patterns generated by the Held idealized model. The surface climate signature is connected to the upper air with baroclinic vertical structure over the North Atlantic but barotropic structures elsewhere. The associated zonal mean circulation features three circulation cells globally with strong inter-hemispheric mixing that suggests the traditional view of the AMO involving a Northern-Southern Hemisphere asymmetry is accurate only near the surface. The AMO transition phase features a more equatorial-based climate signature and associated geopotential height anomaly patterns consistent with the Matsuno-Gill idealized model. The zonal mean circulation of the transition phases features six, rather than three, circulation cells globally. The only baroclinic structure, over North America, and several barotropic structures are positioned west of corresponding similar structures during the AMO extreme phase, suggesting an eastward evolution of climate anomalies as the AMO progresses from a cool-to-warm transition phase to warm phase. The Pacific-based climate signature resembles the IPO warm phase and it is proposed the AMO and IPO are different basin-wide expressions of a single multidecadal oscillation. The identification of an AMO transition phase climate signature distinct from the extreme phase suggests transition phases are not neutral and may provide an additional source of information for characterizing climate cycles.

Western Pacific Hydroclimate Linked to Global Climate Variability Over the Past Two Millennia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Griffiths, Michael L.; Kimbrough, Alena K.; Gagan, Michael K.; Drysdale, Russell N.; Cole, Julia E.; Johnson, Kathleen R.; Zhao, Jian-Xin; Cook, Benjamin I.; Hellstrom, John C.; Hantoro, Wahyoe S.

2016-01-01

Interdecadal modes of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere circulation have a strong influence on global temperature, yet the extent to which these phenomena influence global climate on multicentury timescales is still poorly known. Here we present a 2,000-year, multiproxy reconstruction of western Pacific hydroclimate from two speleothem records for southeastern Indonesia. The composite record shows pronounced shifts in monsoon rainfall that are antiphased with precipitation records for East Asia and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. These meridional and zonal patterns are best explained by a poleward expansion of the Australasian Intertropical Convergence Zone and weakening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) between B1000 and 1500 CE Conversely, an equatorward contraction of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and strengthened PWC occurred between B1500 and 1900 CE. Our findings, together with climate model simulations, highlight the likelihood that century-scale variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature.

The effect of aerosols on northern hemisphere wintertime stationary waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewinschal, Anna; Ekman, Annica M. L.

2010-05-01

Aerosol particles have a considerable impact on the energy budget of the atmosphere because of their ability to scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation. Since the beginning of the industrialisation a large increase has been seen mainly in the concentrations of sulphate and black carbon as a result of combustion of fossil fuel and biomass burning. Aerosol particles have a relatively short residence time in the atmosphere why the aerosol concentration shows a large variation spatially as well as in time where high concentrations are found close to emission sources. This leads to a highly varying radiative forcing pattern which modifies temperature gradients which in turn can alter the pressure distribution and lead to changes in the circulation in the atmosphere. In this study, the effect on the wintertime planetary scale waves on the northern hemisphere is specifically considered together with the regional climate impact due to changes in the stationary waves. To investigate the effect of aerosols on the circulation a global general circulation model based on the ECMWF operational forecast model is used (EC-Earth). The aerosol description in EC-Earth consists of prescribed monthly mean mass concentration fields of five different types of aerosols: sulphate, black carbon, organic carbon, dust and sea salt. Only the direct radiative effect is considered and the different aerosol types are treated as external mixtures. Changes in the stationary wave pattern are determined by comparing model simulations using present-day and pre-industrial concentrations of aerosol particles. Since the planetary scale waves largely influence the storm tracks and are an important part of the meridional heat transport, changes in the wave pattern may have substantial impact on the climate globally and locally. By looking at changes in the model simulations globally it can be found that the aerosol radiative forcing has the potential to change the stationary wave pattern. Furthermore, it shows that regional changes in the climate occur also where the radiative forcing from aerosol particles is not particularly strong, which would indicate that the large scale dynamical response to aerosol forcing can induce changes in temperature, precipitation and wind patterns outside the region where the forcing is initially located.

Biogeography in the air: fungal diversity over land and oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fröhlich-Nowoisky, J.; Burrows, S. M.; Xie, Z.; Engling, G.; Solomon, P. A.; Fraser, M. P.; Mayol-Bracero, O. L.; Artaxo, P.; Begerow, D.; Conrad, R.; Andreae, M. O.; Després, V. R.; Pöschl, U.

2011-07-01

Biogenic aerosols are relevant for the Earth system, climate, and public health on local, regional, and global scales. Up to now, however, little is known about the diversity and biogeography of airborne microorganisms. We present the first DNA-based analysis of airborne fungi on global scales, showing pronounced geographic patterns and boundaries. In particular we found that the ratio of species richness between Basidiomycota and Ascomycota is much higher in continental air than in marine air. This may be an important difference between the "blue ocean" and "green ocean" regimes in the formation of clouds and precipitation, for which fungal spores can act as nuclei. Our findings also suggest that air flow patterns and the global atmospheric circulation are important for the evolution of microbial ecology and for the understanding of global changes in biodiversity.

Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, L. C.; Kahana, R.; Graham, T.; Ringer, M. A.; Woollings, T.; Mecking, J. V.; Wood, R. A.

2015-12-01

The impacts of a hypothetical slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are assessed in a state-of-the-art global climate model (HadGEM3), with particular emphasis on Europe. This is the highest resolution coupled global climate model to be used to study the impacts of an AMOC slowdown so far. Many results found are consistent with previous studies and can be considered robust impacts from a large reduction or collapse of the AMOC. These include: widespread cooling throughout the North Atlantic and northern hemisphere in general; less precipitation in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes; large changes in precipitation in the tropics and a strengthening of the North Atlantic storm track. The focus on Europe, aided by the increase in resolution, has revealed previously undiscussed impacts, particularly those associated with changing atmospheric circulation patterns. Summer precipitation decreases (increases) in northern (southern) Europe and is associated with a negative summer North Atlantic Oscillation signal. Winter precipitation is also affected by the changing atmospheric circulation, with localised increases in precipitation associated with more winter storms and a strengthened winter storm track. Stronger westerly winds in winter increase the warming maritime effect while weaker westerlies in summer decrease the cooling maritime effect. In the absence of these circulation changes the cooling over Europe's landmass would be even larger in both seasons. The general cooling and atmospheric circulation changes result in weaker peak river flows and vegetation productivity, which may raise issues of water availability and crop production.

Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crane, Robert G.; Hewitson, Bruce

1990-01-01

Model simulations of global climate change are seen as an essential component of any program aimed at understanding human impact on the global environment. A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs), however, is their inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global scale change, and it is these regional scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human/environmental response. This research is directed toward the development of a methodology for the validation of the synoptic scale climatology of GCMs. This is developed with regard to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM Model 2, with the specific objective of using the synoptic circulation form a doubles CO2 simulation to estimate regional climate change over North America, south of Hudson Bay. This progress report is specifically concerned with validating the synoptic climatology of the GISS GCM, and developing the transfer function to derive grid-point temperatures from the synoptic circulation. Principal Components Analysis is used to characterize the primary modes of the spatial and temporal variability in the observed and simulated climate, and the model validation is based on correlations between component loadings, and power spectral analysis of the component scores. The results show that the high resolution GISS model does an excellent job of simulating the synoptic circulation over the U.S., and that grid-point temperatures can be predicted with reasonable accuracy from the circulation patterns.

Relation of major volcanic center concentration on Venus to global tectonic patterns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crumpler, L. S.; Head, James W.; Aubele, Jayne C.

1993-01-01

Global analysis of Magellan image data indicates that a major concentration of volcanic centers covering about 40 percent of the surface of Venus occurs between the Beta, Atla, and Themis regions. Associated with this enhanced concentration are geological characteristics commonly interpreted as rifting and mantle upwelling. Interconnected low plains in an annulus around this concentration are characterized by crustal shortening and infrequent volcanic centers that may represent sites of mantle return flow and net downwelling. Together, these observations suggest the existence of relatively simple, large-scale patterns of mantle circulation similar to those associated with concentrations of intraplate volcanism on earth.

Paleoceanography. Onset of Mediterranean outflow into the North Atlantic.

PubMed

Hernández-Molina, F Javier; Stow, Dorrik A V; Alvarez-Zarikian, Carlos A; Acton, Gary; Bahr, André; Balestra, Barbara; Ducassou, Emmanuelle; Flood, Roger; Flores, José-Abel; Furota, Satoshi; Grunert, Patrick; Hodell, David; Jimenez-Espejo, Francisco; Kim, Jin Kyoung; Krissek, Lawrence; Kuroda, Junichiro; Li, Baohua; Llave, Estefania; Lofi, Johanna; Lourens, Lucas; Miller, Madeline; Nanayama, Futoshi; Nishida, Naohisa; Richter, Carl; Roque, Cristina; Pereira, Hélder; Sanchez Goñi, Maria Fernanda; Sierro, Francisco J; Singh, Arun Deo; Sloss, Craig; Takashimizu, Yasuhiro; Tzanova, Alexandrina; Voelker, Antje; Williams, Trevor; Xuan, Chuang

2014-06-13

Sediments cored along the southwestern Iberian margin during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 339 provide constraints on Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) circulation patterns from the Pliocene epoch to the present day. After the Strait of Gibraltar opened (5.33 million years ago), a limited volume of MOW entered the Atlantic. Depositional hiatuses indicate erosion by bottom currents related to higher volumes of MOW circulating into the North Atlantic, beginning in the late Pliocene. The hiatuses coincide with regional tectonic events and changes in global thermohaline circulation (THC). This suggests that MOW influenced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), THC, and climatic shifts by contributing a component of warm, saline water to northern latitudes while in turn being influenced by plate tectonics. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Miocene deepwater oceanography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodruff, Fay; Savin, Samuel M.

1989-02-01

A global synthesis of Miocene benthic foraminiferal carbon and oxygen isotopic and faunal abundance data indicates that Miocene thermohaline circulation evolved through three regimes corresponding approximately to early, middle, and late Miocene times. There is evidence for major qualitative differences between the circulation of the modern ocean and the Miocene ocean prior to 11 Ma. The 13C/12C ratios of the benthic foraminifera Cibicidoides are interpreted in terms of water mass aging, i.e., the progressive depletion of dissolved O2 and lowering of δ13C values as the result of oxidation of organic matter as water flows further from its sources at the surface of the oceans. Both isotopic and faunal data indicate that the early Miocene regime, from 22 to 15 Ma, was the most different from today's. During that interval intermediate and deep waters of both the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans aged in a northward direction, and the intermediate waters of the Indian, the South Atlantic and the South Pacific oceans were consistently the youngest in the global ocean. We speculate that early Miocene global thermohaline circulation may have been strongly influenced by the influx of warm saline water, Tethyan Indian Saline Water, from the Tethys into the northern Indian Ocean. The isotopic and faunal data suggest that flow from the Tethyan region into the Indian Ocean diminished or terminated at about 14 Ma. Isotopic and faunal data give no evidence for North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation prior to about 14.5 Ma (with the exception of a brief episode in the early Miocene). From 14.5 to 11 Ma NADW formation was weak, and circumpolar and Antarctic water flooded the deep South Atlantic and South Pacific as the Antarctic ice cap grew. From about 10 Ma to the end of the Miocene, thermohaline circulation resembled the modern circulation in many ways. In latest Miocene time (6 to 5 Ma) circulation patterns were very similar to today's except that NADW formation was greatly diminished. The distribution pattern of siliceous oozes in Miocene sediments is consistent with our proposed reconstruction of thermohaline circulation. Major changes which occurred in circulation during the middle Miocene were probably related to the closing of the Tethys and may have contributed to rapid middle Miocene growth of the Antarctic ice cap. Appendices 1, 4, 6, and 7 are available withentire article on microfiche. Order fromAmerican Geophysical Union, 2000 FloridaAvenue, N.W., Washington, DC 20009.Document 88P-002; $5.00. Payment mustaccompany order.

The GPS Topex/Poseidon precise orbit determination experiment - Implications for design of GPS global networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lindqwister, Ulf J.; Lichten, Stephen M.; Davis, Edgar S.; Theiss, Harold L.

1993-01-01

Topex/Poseidon, a cooperative satellite mission between United States and France, aims to determine global ocean circulation patterns and to study their influence on world climate through precise measurements of sea surface height above the geoid with an on-board altimeter. To achieve the mission science aims, a goal of 13-cm orbit altitude accuracy was set. Topex/Poseidon includes a Global Positioning System (GPS) precise orbit determination (POD) system that has now demonstrated altitude accuracy better than 5 cm. The GPS POD system includes an on-board GPS receiver and a 6-station GPS global tracking network. This paper reviews early GPS results and discusses multi-mission capabilities available from a future enhanced global GPS network, which would provide ground-based geodetic and atmospheric calibrations needed for NASA deep space missions while also supplying tracking data for future low Earth orbiters. Benefits of the enhanced global GPS network include lower operations costs for deep space tracking and many scientific and societal benefits from the low Earth orbiter missions, including improved understanding of ocean circulation, ocean-weather interactions, the El Nino effect, the Earth thermal balance, and weather forecasting.

Using Lagrangian Coherent Structures to understand coastal water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiorentino, L. A.; Olascoaga, M. J.; Reniers, A.; Feng, Z.; Beron-Vera, F. J.; MacMahan, J. H.

2012-09-01

The accumulation of pollutants near the shoreline can result in low quality coastal water with negative effects on human health. To understand the role of mixing by tidal flows in coastal water quality we study the nearshore Lagrangian circulation. Specifically, we reveal Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs), i.e., distinguished material curves which shape global mixing patterns and thus act as skeletons of the Lagrangian circulation. This is done using the recently developed geodesic theory of transport barriers. Particular focus is placed on Hobie Beach, a recreational subtropical marine beach located in Virginia Key, Miami, Florida. According to studies of water quality, Hobie Beach is characterized by high microbial levels. Possible sources of pollution in Hobie Beach include human bather shedding, dog fecal matter, runoff, and sand efflux at high tides. Consistent with the patterns formed by satellite-tracked drifter trajectories, the LCSs extracted from simulated currents reveal a Lagrangian circulation favoring the retention near the shoreline of pollutants released along the shoreline, which can help explain the low quality water registered at Hobie Beach.

Optimal satellite sampling to resolve global-scale dynamics in the I-T system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowland, D. E.; Zesta, E.; Connor, H. K.; Pfaff, R. F., Jr.

2016-12-01

The recent Decadal Survey highlighted the need for multipoint measurements of ion-neutral coupling processes to study the pathways by which solar wind energy drives dynamics in the I-T system. The emphasis in the Decadal Survey is on global-scale dynamics and processes, and in particular, mission concepts making use of multiple identical spacecraft in low earth orbit were considered for the GDC and DYNAMIC missions. This presentation will provide quantitative assessments of the optimal spacecraft sampling needed to significantly advance our knowledge of I-T dynamics on the global scale.We will examine storm time and quiet time conditions as simulated by global circulation models, and determine how well various candidate satellite constellations and satellite schemes can quantify the plasma and neutral convection patterns and global-scale distributions of plasma density, neutral density, and composition, and their response to changes in the IMF. While the global circulation models are data-starved, and do not contain all the physics that we might expect to observe with a global-scale constellation mission, they are nonetheless an excellent "starting point" for discussions of the implementation of such a mission. The result will be of great utility for the design of future missions, such as GDC, to study the global-scale dynamics of the I-T system.

A global traveling wave on Venus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Michael D.; Gierasch, Peter J.; Schinder, Paul J.

1993-01-01

The dominant large-scale pattern in the clouds of Venus has been described as a 'Y' or 'Psi' and tentatively identified by earlier workers as a Kelvin wave. A detailed calculation of linear wave modes in the Venus atmosphere verifies this identification. Cloud feedback by infrared heating fluctuations is a plausible excitation mechanism. Modulation of the large-scale pattern by the wave is a possible explanation for the Y. Momentum transfer by the wave could contribute to sustaining the general circulation.

Summertime land-sea thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warming climate—Part I: Past changes and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamae, Youichi; Watanabe, Masahiro; Kimoto, Masahide; Shiogama, Hideo

2014-11-01

Land-sea surface air temperature (SAT) contrast, an index of tropospheric thermodynamic structure and dynamical circulation, has shown a significant increase in recent decades over East Asia during the boreal summer. In Part I of this two-part paper, observational data and the results of transient warming experiments conducted using coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) are analyzed to examine changes in land-sea thermal contrast and the associated atmospheric circulation over East Asia from the past to the future. The interannual variability of the land-sea SAT contrast over the Far East for 1950-2012 was found to be tightly coupled with a characteristic tripolar pattern of tropospheric circulation over East Asia, which manifests as anticyclonic anomalies over the Okhotsk Sea and around the Philippines, and a cyclonic anomaly over Japan during a positive phase, and vice versa. In response to CO2 increase, the cold northeasterly winds off the east coast of northern Japan and the East Asian rainband were strengthened with the circulation pattern well projected on the observed interannual variability. These results are commonly found in GCMs regardless of future forcing scenarios, indicating the robustness of the East Asian climate response to global warming. The physical mechanisms responsible for the increase of the land-sea contrast are examined in Part II.

Indirect downscaling of global circulation model data based on atmospheric circulation and temperature for projections of future precipitation in hourly resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, F.; Bárdossy, A.

2013-07-01

Many hydraulic applications like the design of urban sewage systems require projections of future precipitation in high temporal resolution. We developed a method to predict the regional distribution of hourly precipitation sums based on daily mean sea level pressure and temperature data from a Global Circulation Model. It is an indirect downscaling method avoiding uncertain precipitation data from the model. It is based on a fuzzy-logic classification of atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) that is further subdivided by means of the average daily temperature. The observed empirical distributions at 30 rain gauges to each CP-temperature class are assumed as constant and used for projections of the hourly precipitation sums in the future. The method was applied to the CP-temperature sequence derived from the 20th century run and the scenario A1B run of ECHAM5. According to ECHAM5, the summers in southwest Germany will become progressively drier. Nevertheless, the frequency of the highest hourly precipitation sums will increase. According to the predictions, estival water stress and the risk of extreme hourly precipitation will both increase simultaneously during the next decades.

ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS OF TERRESTRIAL EXOPLANETS OVER A WIDE RANGE OF ORBITAL AND ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kaspi, Yohai; Showman, Adam P., E-mail: yohai.kaspi@weizmann.ac.il

The recent discoveries of terrestrial exoplanets and super-Earths extending over a broad range of orbital and physical parameters suggest that these planets will span a wide range of climatic regimes. Characterization of the atmospheres of warm super-Earths has already begun and will be extended to smaller and more distant planets over the coming decade. The habitability of these worlds may be strongly affected by their three-dimensional atmospheric circulation regimes, since the global climate feedbacks that control the inner and outer edges of the habitable zone—including transitions to Snowball-like states and runaway-greenhouse feedbacks—depend on the equator-to-pole temperature differences, patterns of relativemore » humidity, and other aspects of the dynamics. Here, using an idealized moist atmospheric general circulation model including a hydrological cycle, we study the dynamical principles governing the atmospheric dynamics on such planets. We show how the planetary rotation rate, stellar flux, atmospheric mass, surface gravity, optical thickness, and planetary radius affect the atmospheric circulation and temperature distribution on such planets. Our simulations demonstrate that equator-to-pole temperature differences, meridional heat transport rates, structure and strength of the winds, and the hydrological cycle vary strongly with these parameters, implying that the sensitivity of the planet to global climate feedbacks will depend significantly on the atmospheric circulation. We elucidate the possible climatic regimes and diagnose the mechanisms controlling the formation of atmospheric jet streams, Hadley and Ferrel cells, and latitudinal temperature differences. Finally, we discuss the implications for understanding how the atmospheric circulation influences the global climate.« less

Nimbus 7 SMMR Derived Seasonal Variations in the Water Vapor, Liquid Water and Surface Winds over the Global Oceans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prabhakara, C.; Short, D. A.

1984-01-01

Monthly mean distributions of water vapor and liquid water contained in a vertical column of the atmosphere and the surface wind speed were derived from Nimbus Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) observations over the global oceans for the period November 1978 to November 1979. The remote sensing techniques used to estimate these parameters from SMMR are presented to reveal the limitations, accuracies, and applicability of the satellite-derived information for climate studies. On a time scale of the order of a month, the distribution of atmospheric water vapor over the oceans is controlled by the sea surface temperature and the large scale atmospheric circulation. The monthly mean distribution of liquid water content in the atmosphere over the oceans closely reflects the precipitation patterns associated with the convectively and baroclinically active regions. Together with the remotely sensed surface wind speed that is causing the sea surface stress, the data collected reveal the manner in which the ocean-atmosphere system is operating. Prominent differences in the water vapor patterns from one year to the next, or from month to month, are associated with anomalies in the wind and geopotential height fields. In association with such circulation anomalies the precipitation patterns deduced from the meteorological network over adjacent continents also reveal anomalous distributions.

Patterns of bleaching and mortality following widespread warming events in 2014 and 2015 at the Hanauma Bay Nature Preserve, Hawai'i.

PubMed

Rodgers, Ku'ulei S; Bahr, Keisha D; Jokiel, Paul L; Richards Donà, Angela

2017-01-01

Drastic increases in global carbon emissions in the past century have led to elevated sea surface temperatures that negatively affect coral reef organisms. Worldwide coral bleaching-related mortality is increasing and data has shown even isolated and protected reefs are vulnerable to the effects of global climate change. In 2014 and 2015, coral reefs in the main Hawaiian Islands (MHI) suffered up to 90% bleaching, with higher than 50% subsequent mortality in some areas. The location and severity of bleaching and mortality was strongly influenced by the spatial and temporal patterns of elevated seawater temperatures. The main objective of this research was to understand the spatial extent of bleaching mortality in Hanauma Bay Nature Preserve (HBNP), O'ahu, Hawai'i to gain a baseline understanding of the physical processes that influence localized bleaching dynamics. Surveys at HBNP in October 2015 and January 2016 revealed extensive bleaching (47%) and high levels of coral mortality (9.8%). Bleaching was highly variable among the four HBNP sectors and ranged from a low of ∼31% in the central bay at Channel (CH) to a high of 57% in the area most frequented by visitors (Keyhole; KH). The highest levels of bleaching occurred in two sectors with different circulation patterns: KH experienced comparatively low circulation velocity and a low temperature increase while Witches Brew (WB) and Backdoors (BD) experienced higher circulation velocity and higher temperature increase. Cumulative mortality was highest at WB (5.0%) and at BD (2.9%) although WB circulation velocity is significantly higher. HBNP is minimally impacted by local factors that can lead to decline such as high fishing pressure or sedimentation although human use is high. Despite the lack of these influences, high coral mortality occurred. Visitor impacts are strikingly different in the two sectors that experienced the highest mortality evidenced by the differences in coral cover associated with visitor use however, coral mortality was similar. These results suggest that elevated temperature was more influential in coral bleaching and the associated mortality than high circulation or visitor use.

Patterns of bleaching and mortality following widespread warming events in 2014 and 2015 at the Hanauma Bay Nature Preserve, Hawai‘i

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Drastic increases in global carbon emissions in the past century have led to elevated sea surface temperatures that negatively affect coral reef organisms. Worldwide coral bleaching-related mortality is increasing and data has shown even isolated and protected reefs are vulnerable to the effects of global climate change. In 2014 and 2015, coral reefs in the main Hawaiian Islands (MHI) suffered up to 90% bleaching, with higher than 50% subsequent mortality in some areas. The location and severity of bleaching and mortality was strongly influenced by the spatial and temporal patterns of elevated seawater temperatures. The main objective of this research was to understand the spatial extent of bleaching mortality in Hanauma Bay Nature Preserve (HBNP), O‘ahu, Hawai‘i to gain a baseline understanding of the physical processes that influence localized bleaching dynamics. Surveys at HBNP in October 2015 and January 2016 revealed extensive bleaching (47%) and high levels of coral mortality (9.8%). Bleaching was highly variable among the four HBNP sectors and ranged from a low of ∼31% in the central bay at Channel (CH) to a high of 57% in the area most frequented by visitors (Keyhole; KH). The highest levels of bleaching occurred in two sectors with different circulation patterns: KH experienced comparatively low circulation velocity and a low temperature increase while Witches Brew (WB) and Backdoors (BD) experienced higher circulation velocity and higher temperature increase. Cumulative mortality was highest at WB (5.0%) and at BD (2.9%) although WB circulation velocity is significantly higher. HBNP is minimally impacted by local factors that can lead to decline such as high fishing pressure or sedimentation although human use is high. Despite the lack of these influences, high coral mortality occurred. Visitor impacts are strikingly different in the two sectors that experienced the highest mortality evidenced by the differences in coral cover associated with visitor use however, coral mortality was similar. These results suggest that elevated temperature was more influential in coral bleaching and the associated mortality than high circulation or visitor use. PMID:28584703

Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model: Application for Understanding Preciptation Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The global hydrological cycle is central to climate system interactions and the key to understanding their behavior. Rainfall and its associated precipitation processes are a key link in the hydrologic cycle. Fresh water provided by tropical rainfall and its variability can exert a large impact upon the structure of the upper ocean layer. In addition, approximately two-thirds of the global rain falls in the Tropics, while the associated latent heat release accounts for about three-fourths of the total heat energy for the Earth's atmosphere. Precipitation from convective cloud systems comprises a large portion of tropical heating and rainfall. Furthermore, the vertical distribution of convective latent-heat releases modulates large-scale tropical circulations (e.g., the 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillation), which, in turn, impacts midlatitude weather through teleconnection patterns such as those associated with El Nino. Shifts in these global circulations can result in prolonged periods of droughts and floods, thereby exerting a tremendous impact upon the biosphere and human habitation. And yet, monthly rainfall over the tropical oceans is still not known within a factor of two over large (5 degrees latitude by 5 degrees longitude) areas. Hence, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a joint U.S./Japan space project, can provide a more accurate measurement of rainfall as well as estimate the four-dimensional structure of diabatic heating over the global tropics. The distributions of rainfall and inferred heating can be used to advance our understanding of the global energy and water cycle. In addition, this information can be used for global circulation and climate models for testing and improving their parameterizations.

Precipitable water: Its linear retrieval using leaps and bounds procedure and its global distribution from SEASAT SMMR data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pandey, P. C.

1982-01-01

Eight subsets using two to five frequencies of the SEASAT scanning multichannel microwave radiometer are examined to determine their potential in the retrieval of atmospheric water vapor content. Analysis indicates that the information concerning the 18 and 21 GHz channels are optimum for water vapor retrieval. A comparison with radiosonde observations gave an rms accuracy of approximately 0.40 g sq cm. The rms accuracy of precipitable water using different subsets was within 10 percent. Global maps of precipitable water over oceans using two and five channel retrieval (average of two and five channel retrieval) are given. Study of these maps reveals the possibility of global moisture distribution associated with oceanic currents and large scale general circulation in the atmosphere. A stable feature of the large scale circulation is noticed. The precipitable water is maximum over the Bay of Bengal and in the North Pacific over the Kuroshio current and shows a general latitudinal pattern.

Assessing the Global Climate Response to Freshwater Forcing from the Antarctic Ice Sheet Under Future Climate Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogstad, S.; Condron, A.; DeConto, R.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

Observational evidence indicates that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is losing mass at an accelerating rate. Impacts to global climate resulting from changing ocean circulation patterns due to increased freshwater runoff from Antarctica in the future could have significant implications for global heat transport, but to-date this topic has not been investigated using complex numerical models with realistic freshwater forcing. Here, we present results from a high resolution fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model (CESM 1.2) forced with runoff from Antarctica prescribed from a high resolution regional ice sheet-ice shelf model. Results from the regional simulations indicate a potential freshwater contribution from Antarctica of up to 1 m equivalent sea level rise by the end of the century under RCP 8.5 indicating that a substantial input of freshwater into the Southern Ocean is possible. Our high resolution global simulations were performed under IPCC future climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. We will present results showing the impact of WAIS collapse on global ocean circulation, sea ice, air temperature, and salinity in order to assess the potential for abrupt climate change triggered by WAIS collapse.

Repackaging precipitation into fewer, larger storms reduces ecosystem exchanges of CO2 and H2O in a semiarid steppe

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global circulation models predict that precipitation patterns will become more extreme, i.e. seasonal rainfall events tend to be larger in size, but fewer in number. Studies in North American grasslands have shown that above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP) was enhanced by such repackaging of ...

Spaceborne Studies Of Ocean Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patzert, William C.

1984-08-01

The global view of the oceans seen by Seasat during its 1978 flight demonstrated the feasibility of ocean remote sensing. These first-ever global data sets of sea surface topography (altimeter) and marine winds (scatterometer) laid the foundation for two satellite missions planned for the late 1980's. The future missions are the next generation of altimeter and scatterometer to be flown aboard TOPEX (Topography Experiment) and NROSS (Navy Remote Ocean Sensing System), respectively. The data from these satellites will be coordinated with measurements made at sea to determine the driving forces of ocean circulation and to study the oceans role in climate variability. Sea surface winds (calculated from scatterometer measurements) are the fundamental driving force for ocean waves and currents (estimated from altimeter measurements). On a global scale, the winds and currents are approximately equal partners in redistributing the excess heat gained in the tropics from solar radiation to the cooler polar regions. Small perturbations in this system can dramatically alter global weather, such as the El Niho event of 1982-83. During an El Ni?io event, global wind patterns and ocean currents are perturbed causing unusual ocean warming in the tropical Pacfic Ocean. These ocean events are coupled to complex fluctuations in global weather. Only with satellites will we be able to collect the global data sets needed to study events such as El Ni?o. When TOPEX and NROSS fly, oceanographers will have the equivalent of meteorological high and low pressure charts of ocean topography as well as the surface winds to study ocean "weather." This ability to measure ocean circulation and its driving forces is a critical element in understanding the influence of oceans on society. Climatic changes, fisheries, commerce, waste disposal, and national defense are all involved.

Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Kucharski, Fred; Azharuddin, Syed

2017-03-01

ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (`SPEEDY'). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air-sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant impact over the tropical Atlantic and the Indian Ocean through Walker circulation. ENSO-induced negative (positive) NAO-like response and associated changes over Southern Europe and North Africa get significantly strong following increased intensity of El Niño (La Niña) in the northern (southern) hemisphere in the boreal winter (summer) season. We further find that ENSO magnitude significantly impacts Hadley and Walker circulations. The positive phase of ENSO (El Niño) overall strengthens Hadley cell and a reverse is true for the La Niña phase. ENSO-induced strengthening and weakening of Hadley cell induces significant impact over South Asian and African ITCZ convective regions through modification of ITCZ/monsoon circulation system.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Abrupt Climate Change.

PubMed

Lynch-Stieglitz, Jean

2017-01-03

Abrupt changes in climate have occurred in many locations around the globe over the last glacial cycle, with pronounced temperature swings on timescales of decades or less in the North Atlantic. The global pattern of these changes suggests that they reflect variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). This review examines the evidence from ocean sediments for ocean circulation change over these abrupt events. The evidence for changes in the strength and structure of the AMOC associated with the Younger Dryas and many of the Heinrich events is strong. Although it has been difficult to directly document changes in the AMOC over the relatively short Dansgaard-Oeschger events, there is recent evidence supporting AMOC changes over most of these oscillations as well. The lack of direct evidence for circulation changes over the shortest events leaves open the possibility of other driving mechanisms for millennial-scale climate variability.

Constraints on ocean circulation at the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum from neodymium isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbott, April N.; Haley, Brian A.; Tripati, Aradhna K.; Frank, Martin

2016-04-01

Global warming during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) ˜ 55 million years ago (Ma) coincided with a massive release of carbon to the ocean-atmosphere system, as indicated by carbon isotopic data. Previous studies have argued for a role of changing ocean circulation, possibly as a trigger or response to climatic changes. We use neodymium (Nd) isotopic data to reconstruct short high-resolution records of deep-water circulation across the PETM. These records are derived by reductively leaching sediments from seven globally distributed sites to reconstruct past deep-ocean circulation across the PETM. The Nd data for the leachates are interpreted to be consistent with previous studies that have used fish teeth Nd isotopes and benthic foraminiferal δ13C to constrain regions of convection. There is some evidence from combining Nd isotope and δ13C records that the three major ocean basins may not have had substantial exchanges of deep waters. If the isotopic data are interpreted within this framework, then the observed pattern may be explained if the strength of overturning in each basin varied distinctly over the PETM, resulting in differences in deep-water aging gradients between basins. Results are consistent with published interpretations from proxy data and model simulations that suggest modulation of overturning circulation had an important role for initiation and recovery of the ocean-atmosphere system associated with the PETM.

Interactions of Multiple Atmospheric Circulation Drive the Drought in Tarim River Basin.

PubMed

Wu, Yong-Ping; Feng, Guo-Lin; Li, Bai-Lian

2016-05-20

Global warming is likely to cause overall drying of land surfaces and aridity increasing leading to expansion of dry climate zones. There is an increased risk of extremely arid environment and large deserts developed progressively in the central Asia. However, the key factors causing the drying in mid-Asia remain inconclusive. Here, we analyzed the relationship among precipitation, water vapor transportation in Tarim River Basin (TRB) and Multiple Atmospheric Circulation (MAC) to explore the mechanism of MAC driving the drying in TRB, through comparing MAC between abundant and scarce precipitation years. We found that Westerly Circulation (WC) and Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) are likely to promote the precipitation respectively. Whereas, they not only have their own influence but also restrict each other and facilitate the forming of peculiar water vapor transport channel for TRB, which is probably to restrain the precipitation and its distribution pattern and accelerate the drying in this region. Our results enrich the findings on mechanisms of wet places becoming wetter while dry areas getting drier under the global warming.

Interactions of Multiple Atmospheric Circulation Drive the Drought in Tarim River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yong-Ping; Feng, Guo-Lin; Li, Bai-Lian

2016-05-01

Global warming is likely to cause overall drying of land surfaces and aridity increasing leading to expansion of dry climate zones. There is an increased risk of extremely arid environment and large deserts developed progressively in the central Asia. However, the key factors causing the drying in mid-Asia remain inconclusive. Here, we analyzed the relationship among precipitation, water vapor transportation in Tarim River Basin (TRB) and Multiple Atmospheric Circulation (MAC) to explore the mechanism of MAC driving the drying in TRB, through comparing MAC between abundant and scarce precipitation years. We found that Westerly Circulation (WC) and Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) are likely to promote the precipitation respectively. Whereas, they not only have their own influence but also restrict each other and facilitate the forming of peculiar water vapor transport channel for TRB, which is probably to restrain the precipitation and its distribution pattern and accelerate the drying in this region. Our results enrich the findings on mechanisms of wet places becoming wetter while dry areas getting drier under the global warming.

Palaeocirculation across New Zealand during the last glacial maximum at ˜21 ka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorrey, Andrew M.; Vandergoes, Marcus; Almond, Peter; Renwick, James; Stephens, Tom; Bostock, Helen; Mackintosh, Andrew; Newnham, Rewi; Williams, Paul W.; Ackerley, Duncan; Neil, Helen; Fowler, Anthony M.

2012-03-01

What circulation pattern drove Southern Alps glacial advances at ˜21 ka? Late 20th century glacial advances in New Zealand are commonly attributed to a dual precipitation increase and cooler than normal temperatures associated with enhanced westerly flow that occur under synoptic pressure patterns termed 'zonal' regimes (Kidson, 2000). But was the circulation pattern that supported major Southern Alps glacial advances during the global LGM similar to the modern analog? Here, a Regional Climate Regime Classification (RCRC) time slice was used to infer past circulation for New Zealand during the LGM at ˜21 ka. Palaeoclimate information that supported the construction of the ˜21 ka time slice was derived from the NZ-INTIMATE Climate Event Stratigraphy (CES), one new Auckland maar proxy record, and additional low-resolution data sourced from the literature. The terrestrial evidence at ˜21 ka implicates several possibilities for past circulation, depending on how interpretations for some proxies are made. The interpretation considered most tenable for the LGM, based on the agreement between terrestrial evidence, marine reconstructions and palaeoclimate model results is an 'anticyclonic/zonal' circulation regime characterized by increased influences from blocking 'highs' over the South Island during winter and an increase in zonal and trough synoptic types (with southerly to westerly quarter wind flow) during summer. These seasonal circulation traits would have generated lower mean annual temperatures, cooler than normal summer temperatures, and overall lower mean annual precipitation for New Zealand (particularly in the western South Island) at ˜21 ka. The anticyclonic/zonal time slice reconstruction presented in this study has different spatial traits than the late 20th Century and the early Little Ice Age signatures, suggesting more than one type of regional circulation pattern can drive Southern Alps glacial activity. This finding lends support to the hypothesis that temperature over precipitation change is more important as the primary modulator of Southern Alps ice advances. The RCRC approach also demonstrates some subtle advantages of integrating multi-proxy data within a palaeocirculation context for New Zealand, notably because this reconstruction technique enables direct comparisons to coarsely resolved palaeoclimate model outputs that do not have downscaled information.

Walker circulation in a transient climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plesca, Elina; Grützun, Verena; Buehler, Stefan A.

2016-04-01

The tropical overturning circulations modulate the heat exchange across the tropics and between the tropics and the poles. The anthropogenic influence on the climate system will affect these circulations, impacting the dynamics of the Earth system. In this work we focus on the Walker circulation. We investigate its temporal and spatial dynamical changes and their link to other climate features, such as surface and sea-surface temperature patterns, El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and ocean heat-uptake, both at global and regional scale. In order to determine the impact of anthropogenic climate change on the tropical circulation, we analyze the outputs of 28 general circulation models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 project. We use the experiment with 1% year-1 increase in CO2 concentration from pre-industrial levels to quadrupling of the concentration. Consistent with previous studies (ex. Ma and Xie 2013), we find that for this experiment most GCMs associate a weakening Walker circulation to a warming transient climate. Due to the role of the Walker Pacific cell in the meridional heat and moisture transport across the tropical Pacific and also the connection to ENSO, we find that a weakened Walker circulation correlates with more extreme El-Niño events, although without a change in their frequency. The spatial analysis of the Pacific Walker cell suggests an eastward displacement of the ascending branch, which is consistent with positive SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific and the link of the Pacific Walker cell to ENSO. Recent studies (ex. England et al. 2014) have linked a strengthened Walker circulation to stronger ocean heat uptake, especially in the western Pacific. The inter-model comparison of the correlation between Walker circulation intensity and ocean heat uptake does not convey a robust response for the investigated experiment. However, there is some evidence that a stronger weakening of the Walker circulation is linked to a higher transient climate response (temperature change by the time of CO2 doubling), which in turn might be related to a decreased ocean heat uptake. This uncertainty across the models we attribute to the multitude of factors controlling ocean and atmosphere heat exchange, both at global and regional scales, as well as to the present capabilities of GCMs in simulating this exchange. References: England, M. H., McGregor, S., Spence, P., Meehl, G. A., Timmermann, A., Cai, W., Gupta, A. S., McPhaden, M. J., Purich, A., and Santoso, A., 2014. Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus. Nature Climate Change 4 (3): 222-227. Ma, J., and Xie, S. P., 2013. Regional Patterns of Sea Surface Temperature Change: A Source of Uncertainty in Future Projections of Precipitation and Atmospheric Circulation*. Journal of Climate, 26 (8): 2482-2501

Isotopic Ordering in Atmospheric O2 as a Tracer of Ozone Photochemistry and the Tropical Atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeung, Laurence Y.; Murray, Lee T.; Ash, Jeanine L.; Young, Edward D.; Boering, Kristie A.; Atlas, Elliot L.; Schauffler, Sue M.; Lueb, Richard A.; Langenfelds, Ray L.; Krummel, Paul B.;

Attribution of Anthropogenic Influence on Atmospheric Patterns Conducive to Recent Most Severe Haze Over Eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ke; Liao, Hong; Cai, Wenju; Yang, Yang

2018-02-01

Severe haze pollution in eastern China has caused substantial health impacts and economic loss. Conducive atmospheric conditions are important to affect occurrence of severe haze events, and circulation changes induced by future global climate warming are projected to increase the frequency of such events. However, a potential contribution of an anthropogenic influence to recent most severe haze (December 2015 and January 2013) over eastern China remains unclear. Here we show that the anthropogenic influence, which is estimated by using large ensemble runs with a climate model forced with and without anthropogenic forcings, has already increased the probability of the atmospheric patterns conducive to severe haze by at least 45% in January 2013 and 27% in December 2015, respectively. We further confirm that simulated atmospheric circulation pattern changes induced by anthropogenic influence are driven mainly by increased greenhouse gas emissions. Our results suggest that more strict reductions in pollutant emissions are needed under future anthropogenic warming.

Attribution of Anthropogenic Influence on Atmospheric Patterns Conducive to Recent Most Severe Haze Over Eastern China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Ke; Liao, Hong; Cai, Wenju

Severe haze pollution in eastern China has caused substantial health impacts and economic loss. Conducive atmospheric conditions are important to affect occurrence of severe haze events, and circulation changes induced by future global climate warming are projected to increase the frequency of such events. However, a potential contribution of an anthropogenic influence to recent most severe haze (December 2015 and January 2013) over eastern China remains unclear. Here we show that the anthropogenic influence, which is estimated by using large ensemble runs with a climate model forced with and without anthropogenic forcings, has already increased the probability of the atmosphericmore » patterns conducive to severe haze by at least 45% in January 2013 and 27% in December 2015, respectively. We further confirm that simulated atmospheric circulation pattern changes induced by anthropogenic influence are driven mainly by increased greenhouse gas emissions. Our results suggest that more strict reductions in pollutant emissions are needed under future anthropogenic warming.« less

Observed and theoretical variations of atmospheric ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

London, J.

1976-01-01

Results are summarized from three areas of ozone research: (1) continued analysis of the global distribution of total ozone to extend the global ozone atlas to summarize 15 years (1957-72) of ground based observations; (2) analysis of balloon borne ozonesonde observations for Arosa, Switzerland, and Hohenpeissenberg, Germany (GFR); (3) contined processing of the (Orbiting Geophysical Observatory-4) satellite data to complete the analysis of the stratospheric ozone distribution from the available OGO-4 data. Results of the analysis of the total ozone observations indicated that the long term ozone variation have marked regional patterns and tend to alternate with season and hemisphere. It is becoming increasingly clear that these long period changes are associated with large scale variations in the general upper atmosphere circulation patterns.

Impacts of radiation management techniques on the North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adakudlu, Muralidhar; Helge Otterå, Odd; Tjiputra, Jerry; Muri, Helene; Grini, Alf; Schulz, Michael

2017-04-01

The effectiveness of various climate engineering techniques in limiting the global warming signal to reasonable levels has been the topic of state-of-the-art research on climate change. Using an Earth system model, we show that these techniques have the potential to bring down the high CO2 concentration climate in RCP8.5 to a moderate climate similar to RCP4.5 in terms of global temperature. Nevertheless, their influence on the regional aspects of atmospheric circulation is not clear. The regional circulation patterns in the atmosphere are largely characterized by the natural variability modes, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In this study, we assess the impacts of three radiation managment techniques, namely, Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI), Marine Sky Brightening (MSB) and Cirrus Cloud Thinning (CCT), on the structure and features of the NAO. The results indicate an east-northeastward shift as well as intensification of the NAO spatial pattern in the global warming scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, with the signal being most intense in the latter. The climate engineering forcings when applied to the RCP8.5 case tend to reduce the strength of the NAO with little impact on its position. The CCT case appears to have the maximum effect on the NAO signal. The patterns of cloud radiative forcing, expressed as the difference between net radiative forcing at TOA under average conditions and clear sky conditions, reveal a northeastward shift of the radiative heating in the north Atlantic region. This implies a possible link between the changes in the NAO signal and the cloud radiative forcing.

Understanding the robustness of Hadley cell response to wide variations in ocean heat transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rencurrel, M. C.; Rose, B. E. J.

2017-12-01

One important aspect of our climate system is the relationship between surface climate and the poleward energy transport in the atmosphere and ocean. Previous studies have shown that increases in poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) tend to warm the midlatitudes without strongly affecting tropical SSTs, resulting in a reduction in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient. This "tropical thermostat" effect depends crucially on a slowdown of the Hadley circulation (HC), with consequent changes in surface evaporation, atmospheric water vapor, and cloudiness. Here we extend previous studies by considering a wide range of spatial patterns of OHT, which we impose in a suite of slab-ocean aquaplanet GCM simulations. The forcing patterns are idealized but sample a variety of ocean circulation features. We find that the tropical thermostat and HC slowdown effects are relatively robust across all forcing patterns. A 1 PW increase in the amplitude of the prescribed OHT spatial pattern results in a global mean warming and a roughly 5 x 1010 kg/s decrease in HC mass flux, regardless of the detailed spatial structure of the imposed OHT. While the rate of HC slowdown is relatively robust, the mechanisms driving it are less so. Smaller, equator-to-subtropical scale OHT patterns are associated with greater reduced Gross Moist Stability (GMS) than the larger-scale OHT patterns. As the imposed OHT is limited equatorward, the HC becomes less efficient at transporting energy out of the tropics, implying that GMS has a modulating effect on the dynamical response of the cell. These experiments offer some new insights on the interplay between atmospheric dynamics and the radiative and hydrological aspects of global climate.

Tracing information flow on a global scale using Internet chain-letter data

PubMed Central

Liben-Nowell, David; Kleinberg, Jon

2008-01-01

Although information, news, and opinions continuously circulate in the worldwide social network, the actual mechanics of how any single piece of information spreads on a global scale have been a mystery. Here, we trace such information-spreading processes at a person-by-person level using methods to reconstruct the propagation of massively circulated Internet chain letters. We find that rather than fanning out widely, reaching many people in very few steps according to “small-world” principles, the progress of these chain letters proceeds in a narrow but very deep tree-like pattern, continuing for several hundred steps. This suggests a new and more complex picture for the spread of information through a social network. We describe a probabilistic model based on network clustering and asynchronous response times that produces trees with this characteristic structure on social-network data. PMID:18353985

Simulation of South-Asian Summer Monsoon in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajayamohan, R. S.

2007-10-01

Major characteristics of Indian summer monsoon climate are analyzed using simulations from the upgraded version of Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM). The Indian monsoon has been studied in terms of mean precipitation and low-level and upper-level circulation patterns and compared with observations. In addition, the model's fidelity in simulating observed monsoon intraseasonal variability, interannual variability and teleconnection patterns is examined. The model is successful in simulating the major rainbelts over the Indian monsoon region. However, the model exhibits bias in simulating the precipitation bands over the South China Sea and the West Pacific region. Seasonal mean circulation patterns of low-level and upper-level winds are consistent with the model's precipitation pattern. Basic features like onset and peak phase of monsoon are realistically simulated. However, model simulation indicates an early withdrawal of monsoon. Northward propagation of rainbelts over the Indian continent is simulated fairly well, but the propagation is weak over the ocean. The model simulates the meridional dipole structure associated with the monsoon intraseasonal variability realistically. The model is unable to capture the observed interannual variability of monsoon and its teleconnection patterns. Estimate of potential predictability of the model reveals the dominating influence of internal variability over the Indian monsoon region.

The NASA-Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling Framework - Land Information System: Global Land/atmosphere Interaction with Resolved Convection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mohr, Karen Irene; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chern, Jiun-Dar; Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2013-01-01

The present generation of general circulation models (GCM) use parameterized cumulus schemes and run at hydrostatic grid resolutions. To improve the representation of cloud-scale moist processes and landeatmosphere interactions, a global, Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) coupled to the Land Information System (LIS) has been developed at NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center. The MMFeLIS has three components, a finite-volume (fv) GCM (Goddard Earth Observing System Ver. 4, GEOS-4), a 2D cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble, GCE), and the LIS, representing the large-scale atmospheric circulation, cloud processes, and land surface processes, respectively. The non-hydrostatic GCE model replaces the single-column cumulus parameterization of fvGCM. The model grid is composed of an array of fvGCM gridcells each with a series of embedded GCE models. A horizontal coupling strategy, GCE4fvGCM4Coupler4LIS, offered significant computational efficiency, with the scalability and I/O capabilities of LIS permitting landeatmosphere interactions at cloud-scale. Global simulations of 2007e2008 and comparisons to observations and reanalysis products were conducted. Using two different versions of the same land surface model but the same initial conditions, divergence in regional, synoptic-scale surface pressure patterns emerged within two weeks. The sensitivity of largescale circulations to land surface model physics revealed significant functional value to using a scalable, multi-model land surface modeling system in global weather and climate prediction.

Explaining the mechanisms through which regional atmospheric circulation variability drives summer temperatures and glacial melt in western High Mountain Asia (HMA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsythe, Nathan; Fowler, Hayley; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Li, Xiaofeng; Pritchard, David

2017-04-01

Comprehension of mechanisms by which atmospheric circulation influences sub-regional temperature and water resources variability in high-elevation mountainous catchments is of great scientific urgency due to the dependency of large downstream populations on the river flows these basins provide. In this work we quantify a regional atmospheric pattern, the Karakoram Zonal Shear (KZS), with a very pronounced annual cycle which we standardise into a dimensionless (seasonal) circulation metric the Karakoram Zonal Index (KZI). Going beyond previous regional circulation metrics such as the "middle-upper tropospheric temperature index" (MUTTI) or the Webster and Yang Monsoonal Index (WYMI) which have focused solely on the South Asian Summer Monsoon (June to September) season, the KZS/KZI provides an indicator which captures the influence and interactions of the westerly jet throughout the entire annual cycle. Use of the KZS and KZI have led us to identify a further regional atmospheric system, the Karakoram Vortex, which propagates "warm high" (anticyclonic postitive temperature anomaly) and "cold low" (cyclonic negative temperature anomaly) patterns across a very broad swath of Central and South Asia in winter but over a much more constrained area of western HMA in summer. The KV exerts this temperature influence through a combination of adiabatic effects and large-scale advection. Quantify KV influence, the KZI shows strong and statistically significantly near surface (2m) air temperatures both across western HMA both as observed through local meteorological stations and as estimated by an ensemble of global meteorological reanalyses. We show that this strong influence on temperature translates to important consequences for meltwater generation from highly glaciated Indus river tributaries which is logical given that previous studies have established the role of air temperature in modulating glacially-derived river flows in western HMA. By improving the understanding of large-scale circulation influences on sub-regional conditions in terms of their sign, strength and the mechanisms through which it acts, the KV/KZI work substantively advances climate science in this domain. The work also thus provides a new set of criteria for assessing the skill of global circulation models in representation of western HMA climate processes.

Salinity Boundary Conditions and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Depth and Quasi-Isopycnic Coordinate Global Ocean Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-30

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Depth and Quasi-Isopycnic Coordinate Global Ocean...2009 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Salinity Boundary Conditions and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Depth and Quasi-Isopycnic Coordinate... Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in global simulations performed with the depth coordinate Parallel Ocean Program (POP) ocean

The climatic effects of nuclear war

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turco, R. P.; Toon, O. B.; Ackerman, T. P.; Pollack, J. B.; Sagan, C.

1984-01-01

The effects of various US-USSR nuclear-exchange scenarios on global climate are investigated by means of computer simulations, summarizing the results of Turco et al. (1983) and follow-up studies using 3D global-circulation models. A nuclear-scenario model is used to determine the amounts of dust, smoke, radioactivity, and pyrotoxins generated by a particular type of nuclear exchange (such as a general 5,000-Mt exchange, a 1,000-Mt limited exchange, a 5,000-Mt hard-target counterforce attack, and a 100-Mt attack on cities only): a particle-microphysics model predicts the evolution of the dust and smoke particles; and a radiative-convective climate model estimates the effects of the dust and smoke clouds on the global radiation budget. The findings are presented in graphs, diagrams, and a table. Thick clouds blocking most sunlight over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes for weeks or months and producing ground-temperature reductions of 20-40 C, disruption of global circulation patterns, and rapid spread of clouds to the Southern Hemisphere are among the 'nuclear-winter' effects predicted for the 5,000-Mt baseline case. The catastrophic consequences for plant, animal, and human populations are considered, and the revision of superpower nuclear strategies is urged.

Response of North Atlantic Ocean Chlorophyll a to the Change of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Min; Zhang, Yuanling; Shu, Qi; Zhao, Chang; Wang, Gang; Wu, Zhaohua; Qiao, Fangli

2017-04-01

Changes in marine phytoplankton are a vital component in global carbon cycling. Despite this far-reaching importance, the variable trend in phytoplankton and its response to climate variability remain unclear. This work presents the spatiotemporal evolution of the chlorophyll a trend in the North Atlantic Ocean by using merged ocean color products for the period 1997-2016. We find a dipole pattern between the subpolar gyre and the Gulf Stream path,and chlorophyll a trend signal propagatedalong the opposite direction of the North Atlantic Current. Such a dipole pattern and opposite propagation of chlorophyll a signal are consistent with the recent distinctive signature of the slowdown of the Atlantic MeridionalOverturning Circulation (AMOC). It is suggested that the spatiotemporal evolution of chlorophyll a during the two most recent decades is a part of the multidecadal variation and regulated byAMOC, which could be used as an indicator of AMOC variations.

Role of the general circulation of the atmosphere in radioactive debris transport. Technical progress report, February 1, 1973--June 30, 1974

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reiter, E R

1974-03-01

Work is described which was performed during the period 1 July, 1973 to 30 June 1974, and also the period 1 February 1973 to 30 June 1973 which was covered by an extension of the previous contract period without additional funds. Writing on Part 4 of the Critical and Creative Review'' of Atmospheric Transport Processes proceeded during these two time periods. A visit to the Physikalisch--Bioklimatische Forschungsstelle Garmisch-Partenkirchen'' produced fruitful ideas on the utilization of cosmogenic radionuclides in the age determination of stratospheric air. As in previous years, a Chemist- Meteorologist Workshop in Fort Lauderdale was again chaired by themore » principal investigator. The behavior of global circulation patterns in both hemispheres, with special emphasis on stratospheric patterns, has been studied and noteworthy results have been obtained. (auth)« less

Changing surface water conditions for the last 500 ka in the Southeast Atlantic: Implications for variable influences of Agulhas leakage and Benguela upwelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrick, Benjamin F.; McClymont, Erin L.; Marret, Fabienne; van der Meer, Marcel T. J.

2015-09-01

The Southeast Atlantic Ocean is an important component of global ocean circulation, as it includes heat and salt transfer into the Atlantic through the Agulhas leakage as well as the highly productive Benguela upwelling system. Here we reconstruct sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1087 in the Southeast Atlantic to investigate surface ocean circulation patterns during the late Pleistocene (0-500 ka). The UK'37 index and dinoflagellate cyst assemblages are used to reconstruct SSTs, δDalkenone is used to reconstruct changes in sea surface salinity, and mass accumulation rates of alkenones and chlorine pigments are quantified to detect changing marine export productivity. The greatest amplitude of SST warming precedes decreases in benthic δ18O and therefore occurs early in the transition from glacials to interglacials. The δDalkenone, as a salinity indicator, increases before SSTs, suggesting that the pattern of Agulhas leakage is more complex than suggested by SST proxies. Marine isotope stage (MIS) 10 shows an anomalous pattern: it is marked by a pronounced increase in chlorine concentration, which may be related to enhanced/expanded Benguela upwelling reaching the core site. We find no evidence of an absence of Agulhas leakage throughout the record, suggesting that there is no Agulhas cutoff even during MIS 10. Finally, the ODP Site 1087 record shows an increasing strength of Agulhas leakage towards the present day, which may have impacted the intensity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. As a result, the new analyses from ODP Site 1087 demonstrate a complex interaction between influences of the Benguela upwelling and the Agulhas leakage through the late Pleistocene, which are inferred here to reflect changing circulation patterns in the Southern Ocean and in the atmosphere.

Medium-range Performance of the Global NWP Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Jang, T.; Kim, J.; Kim, Y.

2017-12-01

The medium-range performance of the global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model in the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) is investigated. The performance is based on the prediction of the extratropical circulation. The mean square error is expressed by sum of spatial variance of discrepancy between forecasts and observations and the square of the mean error (ME). Thus, it is important to investigate the ME effect in order to understand the model performance. The ME is expressed by the subtraction of an anomaly from forecast difference against the real climatology. It is found that the global model suffers from a severe systematic ME in medium-range forecasts. The systematic ME is dominant in the entire troposphere in all months. Such ME can explain at most 25% of root mean square error. We also compare the extratropical ME distribution with that from other NWP centers. NWP models exhibit similar spatial ME structure each other. It is found that the spatial ME pattern is highly correlated to that of an anomaly, implying that the ME varies with seasons. For example, the correlation coefficient between ME and anomaly ranges from -0.51 to -0.85 by months. The pattern of the extratropical circulation also has a high correlation to an anomaly. The global model has trouble in faithfully simulating extratropical cyclones and blockings in the medium-range forecast. In particular, the model has a hard to simulate an anomalous event in medium-range forecasts. If we choose an anomalous period for a test-bed experiment, we will suffer from a large error due to an anomaly.

Multiscale low-frequency circulation modes in the global atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K.-M.; Sheu, P.-J.; Kang, I.-S.

1994-01-01

In this paper, fundamental multiscale circulation modes in the global atmosphere are identified with the objective of providing better understanding of atmospheric low-frequency variabilities over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. With the use of a combination of rotated principal component technique, singular spectrum analysis, and phase space portraits, three categories of basic multiscale modes in the atmosphere are found. The first is the interannual-mode (IAM), which is dominated by time scales longer than a year and can be attributed to heating and circulation anomalies associated with the coupled tropical ocean-atmosphere, in particular the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The second is a set of tropical intraseasonal modes consisting of three separate multiscale patterns (ISO-1, -2, -3) related to tropical heating that can be identified with the different phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), including its teleconnection to the extratropics. The ISO spatial and temporal patterns suggest that the extratropical wave train in the North Pacific and North America is related to heating over the Maritime Continent and that the evolution of the MJO around the equator may require forcing from the extratropics spawning convection over the Indian Ocean. The third category represents extratropical intraseasonal oscillations arising from internal dynamics of the basic-state circulation. In the Northern Hemisphere, there are two distinct circulation modes with multiple frequencies in this category: the Pacific/North America (PNA) and the North Atlantic/Eurasia (NAE). In the Southern Hemisphere, two phase-locked modes (PSA-1 and PSA-2) are found depicting an eastward propagating wave train from eastern Australia, via the Pacific South America to the South Atlantic. The extratropical modes exhibit temporal characteristics such as phase locking and harmonic oscillations possibly associated with quadratically nonlinear dynamical systems. Additionally, the observed monthly and seasonal anomalies arise from a complex interplay of the various multiscale low-frequency modes. The relative dominance of the different modes varies widely from month to month and from year to year. On the monthly time scale, while one or two mechanisms may dominate in one year, no single mechanism seems to dominate for all years. There are indications that when the IAM, that is, ENSO heating patterns are strong, the extratropical modes may be suppressed and vice versa. For the seasonal mean, the interannual mode tends to dominate and the contribution from the PNA remains quite significant.

Effects of Cross-axis Wind Jet Events on the Northern Red Sea Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menezes, V. V.; Bower, A. S.; Farrar, J. T.

2016-12-01

Despite its small size, the Red Sea has a complex circulation. There are boundary currents in both sides of the basin, a meridional overturning circulation, water mass formation in the northern part and an intense eddy activity. This complex pattern is driven by strong air-sea interactions. The Red Sea has one of the largest evaporation rates of the global oceans (2m/yr), an intricate and seasonally varying wind pattern. The winds blowing over the Northern Rea Sea (NRS, north of 20N) are predominantly southeastward along the main axis all year round; in the southern, they reverse seasonally due to the monsoonal regime. Although the winds are mostly along-axis in the NRS, several works have shown that sometimes during the boreal winter, the winds blow in a cross-axis direction. The westward winds from Saudi Arabia bring relatively cold dry air and dust from the desert, enhancing heat loss and evaporation off the Red Sea. These wind-jet events may contribute to increased eddy activity and are a trigger for water mass formation. Despite that, our knowledge about the cross-axis winds and their effect on NRS circulation is still incipient. In the present work we analyze 10-years of Quikscat scatterometer winds and altimetric sea surface height anomalies, together with 2-yrs of mooring data, to characterize the westward wind jet events and their impacts on the circulation. We show that the cross-axis winds are, indeed, an important component of the wind regime, explaining 11% of wind variability of the NRS (well-described by a 2nd EOF mode). The westward events occur predominantly in the winter, preferentially in January (about 15 events in 10-years) and have a mean duration of 4-5 days, with a maximum of 12 days (north of 22N). There are around 6 events per year, but in 2002-2003 and 2007-2008, twice more events were detected. The westward wind events are found to strongly modify the wind stress curl, causing a distinct positive/negative curl pattern along the main axis. This pattern enhances the eddy activity and impacts the NRS circulation.

Atlantic Induced Pan-tropical Climate Variability in the Upper-ocean and Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Xie, S. P.; Gille, S. T.; Yoo, C.

2016-02-01

During the last three decades, tropical sea surface temperature (SST) exhibited dipole-like trends, with warming over the tropical Atlantic and Indo-Western Pacific but cooling over the Eastern Pacific. The Eastern Pacific cooling has recently been identified as a driver of the global warming hiatus. Previous studies revealed atmospheric bridges between the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean, which could potentially contribute to this zonally asymmetric SST pattern. However, the mechanisms and the interactions between these teleconnections remain unclear. To investigate these questions, we performed a `pacemaker' simulation by restoring the tropical Atlantic SST changes in a state-of-the-art climate model - the CESM1. Results show that the Atlantic plays a key role in initiating the tropical-wide teleconnections, and the Atlantic-induced anomalies contribute 55%-75% of the total tropical SST and circulation changes during the satellite era. A hierarchy of oceanic and atmospheric models are then used to investigate the physical mechanisms of these teleconnections: the Atlantic warming enhances atmospheric deep convection, drives easterly wind anomalies over the Indo-Western Pacific through the Kelvin wave, and westerly anomalies over the eastern Pacific as Rossby waves, in line with Gill's solution (Fig1a). These wind changes induce an Indo-Western Pacific warming via the wind-evaporation-SST effect, and this warming intensifies the La Niña-type response in the upper Pacific Ocean by enhancing the easterly trade winds and through the Bjerknes ocean-dynamical processes (Fig1b). The teleconnection finally develops into a tropical-wide SST dipole pattern with an enhanced trade wind and Walker circulation, similar as the observed changes during the satellite era. This mechanism reveals that the tropical ocean basins are more tightly connected than previously thought, and the Atlantic plays a key role in the tropical climate pattern formation and further the global warming hiatus. The tropical Atlantic warming is likely due to radiative forcing and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Our study suggests that the AMOC may force the decadal variability of the tropical ocean and atmosphere, and thus contributes to the decadal predictability of the global climate.

Decadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter circulation: Role of internal and external drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maliniemi, V.; Asikainen, T.; Mursula, K.

2017-12-01

Northern Hemisphere winter circulation is known to be affected by both internal and external (solar-related) forcings. Earlier studies have shown ENSO and volcanic activity to produce negative and positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) type responses, respectively. In addition, recent studies have shown a positive NAO response related to both geomagnetic activity (proxy for solar wind driven particle precipitation) and sunspot activity (proxy for solar irradiance). These solar-related signals have been suggested to be due to the changes in the polar vortex. Here the relative role of these four internal and external drivers on wintertime circulation in the Northern Hemisphere is studied. The phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is used to study the driver responses for different stratospheric conditions. Moreover, the effects are separated for early (Dec/Jan) and late (Feb/Mar) winter. The global pattern of ENSO is very similar (negative NAO) otherwise, but in early winter and westerly QBO the pattern is changed in the Atlantic sector to a weakly positive NAO. The positive NAO pattern due to volcanic activity is more pronounced for westerly QBO in both early and late winter. The positive NAO pattern produced by geomagnetic activity is obtained during easterly QBO phase in both early and late winter. Sunspot related NAO response in late winter is also strongly modulated by the QBO phase. These results imply that the stratospheric conditions expressed by QBO significantly modulate the way the internal and external drivers affect the Northern Hemisphere winter climate.

Tropical Pacific moisture variability: Its detection, synoptic structure and consequences in the general circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcguirk, James P.

1990-01-01

Satellite data analysis tools are developed and implemented for the diagnosis of atmospheric circulation systems over the tropical Pacific Ocean. The tools include statistical multi-variate procedures, a multi-spectral radiative transfer model, and the global spectral forecast model at NMC. Data include in-situ observations; satellite observations from VAS (moisture, infrared and visible) NOAA polar orbiters (including Tiros Operational Satellite System (TOVS) multi-channel sounding data and OLR grids) and scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR); and European Centre for Medium Weather Forecasts (ECHMWF) analyses. A primary goal is a better understanding of the relation between synoptic structures of the area, particularly tropical plumes, and the general circulation, especially the Hadley circulation. A second goal is the definition of the quantitative structure and behavior of all Pacific tropical synoptic systems. Finally, strategies are examined for extracting new and additional information from existing satellite observations. Although moisture structure is emphasized, thermal patterns are also analyzed. Both horizontal and vertical structures are studied and objective quantitative results are emphasized.

Evidence linking rapid Arctic warming to mid-latitude weather patterns.

PubMed

Francis, Jennifer; Skific, Natasa

2015-07-13

The effects of rapid Arctic warming and ice loss on weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere is a topic of active research, lively scientific debate and high societal impact. The emergence of Arctic amplification--the enhanced sensitivity of high-latitude temperature to global warming--in only the last 10-20 years presents a challenge to identifying statistically robust atmospheric responses using observations. Several recent studies have proposed and demonstrated new mechanisms by which the changing Arctic may be affecting weather patterns in mid-latitudes, and these linkages differ fundamentally from tropics/jet-stream interactions through the transfer of wave energy. In this study, new metrics and evidence are presented that suggest disproportionate Arctic warming-and resulting weakening of the poleward temperature gradient-is causing the Northern Hemisphere circulation to assume a more meridional character (i.e. wavier), although not uniformly in space or by season, and that highly amplified jet-stream patterns are occurring more frequently. Further analysis based on self-organizing maps supports this finding. These changes in circulation are expected to lead to persistent weather patterns that are known to cause extreme weather events. As emissions of greenhouse gases continue unabated, therefore, the continued amplification of Arctic warming should favour an increased occurrence of extreme events caused by prolonged weather conditions.

Developing quantitative criteria to evaluate AOGCMs for application to regional climate assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayhoe, K.; Wake, C.; Bradbury, J.; Degaetano, A.; Hertel, A.

2006-12-01

Climate projections are the foundation for regional assessments of potential climate impacts. However, the soundness of regional assessments depends on the ability of global climate models to reproduce key processes responsible for regional climate trends. Here, we develop a systematic method to compare observed climate with historical atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations, to assess the degree to which AOGCMs are able to reproduce regional circulation patterns. Applying this methodology to the U.S. Northeast (NE), we find that nearly all AOGCMs simulate a reasonable winter NAO pattern and seasonal positions of the Jet Stream and the East Coast Trough. However, not all models capture observed correlations between these circulation patterns and seasonal climate anomalies in the NE. Using only those AOGCMs that meet the criteria in each of these areas, we then develop projections of future climate change in the NE. The primary changes projected to occur over the next century - slightly greater temperature increases in summer than winter, and increases in winter precipitation - are consistent with projected trends in regional climate processes and are relatively independent of model or scale. These suggest confidence in the direction and potential range of the most notable regional climate trends, with the absolute magnitude of change depending on both the sensitivity of the climate system to human forcing as well as on human emissions over coming decades.

Tracer constraints on organic particle transfer efficiency to the deep ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, T. S.; Cram, J. A.; Deutsch, C. A.

2016-02-01

The "transfer efficiency" of sinking organic particles through the mesopelagic zone is a critical determinant of ocean carbon sequestration timescales, and the atmosphere-ocean partition of CO2. Our ability to detect large-scale variations in transfer efficiency is limited by the paucity of particle flux data from the deep ocean, and the potential biases of bottom-moored sediment traps used to collect it. Here we show that deep-ocean particle fluxes can be reconstructed by diagnosing the rate of phosphate accumulation and oxygen disappearance along deep circulation pathways in an observationally constrained Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM). Combined with satellite and model estimates of carbon export from the surface ocean, these diagnosed fluxes reveal a global pattern of transfer efficiency to 1000m and 2000m that is high ( 20%) at high latitudes and negligible (<5%) throughout subtropical gyres, with intermediate values in the tropics. This pattern is at odds with previous estimates of deep transfer efficiency derived from bottom-moored sediment traps, but is consistent with upper-ocean flux profiles measured by neutrally buoyant sediment traps, which show strong attenuation of low latitude particle fluxes over the top 500m. Mechanistically, the pattern can be explained by spatial variations in particle size distributions, and the temperature-dependence of remineralization. We demonstrate the biogeochemical significance of our findings by comparing estimates of deep-ocean carbon sequestration in a scenario with spatially varying transfer efficiency to one with a globally uniform "Martin-curve" particle flux profile.

Impact of Greenland orography on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davini, Paolo; von Hardenberg, Jost; Filippi, Luca; Provenzale, Antonello

2015-04-01

We show that the absence of the Greenland Ice Sheet would have important consequences on the North Atlantic Ocean circulation, even without taking into account the effect of the freshwater input from ice melting. These effects are investigated in a 200-year long coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation with the high-resolution global climate model EC-Earth 3.0.1. Once a new equilibrium is established, cooling of Eurasia and of the North Atlantic and poleward shift of the subtropical jet are observed. These hemispheric changes are ascribed to a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) by about 20%. Such slowdown is associated to the freshening of the Arctic basin and to the related reduction in the freshwater export through the Fram Strait, as a result of the new wind pattern generated by the lower orography. This idealized experiment reveals the possibility of decreasing the AMOC by locally changing the surface winds.

Patterns of crop cover under future climates.

PubMed

Porfirio, Luciana L; Newth, David; Harman, Ian N; Finnigan, John J; Cai, Yiyong

2017-04-01

We study changes in crop cover under future climate and socio-economic projections. This study is not only organised around the global and regional adaptation or vulnerability to climate change but also includes the influence of projected changes in socio-economic, technological and biophysical drivers, especially regional gross domestic product. The climatic data are obtained from simulations of RCP4.5 and 8.5 by four global circulation models/earth system models from 2000 to 2100. We use Random Forest, an empirical statistical model, to project the future crop cover. Our results show that, at the global scale, increases and decreases in crop cover cancel each other out. Crop cover in the Northern Hemisphere is projected to be impacted more by future climate than the in Southern Hemisphere because of the disparity in the warming rate and precipitation patterns between the two Hemispheres. We found that crop cover in temperate regions is projected to decrease more than in tropical regions. We identified regions of concern and opportunities for climate change adaptation and investment.

Wetter subtropics in a warmer world: Contrasting past and future hydrological cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burls, Natalie J.; Fedorov, Alexey V.

2017-12-01

During the warm Miocene and Pliocene Epochs, vast subtropical regions had enough precipitation to support rich vegetation and fauna. Only with global cooling and the onset of glacial cycles some 3 Mya, toward the end of the Pliocene, did the broad patterns of arid and semiarid subtropical regions become fully developed. However, current projections of future global warming caused by CO2 rise generally suggest the intensification of dry conditions over these subtropical regions, rather than the return to a wetter state. What makes future projections different from these past warm climates? Here, we investigate this question by comparing a typical quadrupling-of-CO2 experiment with a simulation driven by sea-surface temperatures closely resembling available reconstructions for the early Pliocene. Based on these two experiments and a suite of other perturbed climate simulations, we argue that this puzzle is explained by weaker atmospheric circulation in response to the different ocean surface temperature patterns of the Pliocene, specifically reduced meridional and zonal temperature gradients. Thus, our results highlight that accurately predicting the response of the hydrological cycle to global warming requires predicting not only how global mean temperature responds to elevated CO2 forcing (climate sensitivity) but also accurately quantifying how meridional sea-surface temperature patterns will change (structural climate sensitivity).

Detection and Attribution of Temperature Trends in the Presence of Natural Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallace, J. M.

2014-12-01

The fingerprint of human-induced global warming stands out clearly above the noise In the time series of global-mean temperature, but not local temperature. At extratropical latitudes over land the standard error of 50-year linear temperature trends at a fixed point is as large as the cumulative rise in global-mean temperature over the past century. Much of the samping variability in local temperature trends is "dynamically-induced", i.e., attributable to the fact that the seasonally-varying mean circulation varies substantially from one year to the next and anomalous circulation patterns are generally accompanied by anomalous temperature patterns. In the presence of such large sampling variability it is virtually impossible to identify the spatial signature of greenhouse warming based on observational data or to partition observed local temperature trends into natural and human-induced components. It follows that previous IPCC assessments, which have focused on the deterministic signature of human-induced climate change, are inherently limited as to what they can tell us about the attribution of the past record of local temperature change or about how much the temperature at a particular place is likely to rise in the next few decades in response to global warming. To obtain more informative assessments of regional and local climate variability and change it will be necessary to take a probabilistic approach. Just as the use of the ensembles has contributed to more informative extended range weather predictions, large ensembles of climate model simulations can provide a statistical context for interpreting observed climate change and for framing projections of future climate. For some purposes, statistics relating to the interannual variability in the historical record can serve as a surrogate for statistics relating to the diversity of climate change scenarios in large ensembles.

A comparison between general circulation model simulations using two sea surface temperature datasets for January 1979

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ose, Tomoaki; Mechoso, Carlos; Halpern, David

1994-01-01

Simulations with the UCLA atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) using two different global sea surface temperature (SST) datasets for January 1979 are compared. One of these datasets is based on Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) (SSTs) at locations where there are ship reports, and climatology elsewhere; the other is derived from measurements by instruments onboard NOAA satellites. In the former dataset (COADS SST), data are concentrated along shipping routes in the Northern Hemisphere; in the latter dataset High Resolution Infrared Sounder (HIRS SST), data cover the global domain. Ensembles of five 30-day mean fields are obtained from integrations performed in the perpetual-January mode. The results are presented as anomalies, that is, departures of each ensemble mean from that produced in a control simulation with climatological SSTs. Large differences are found between the anomalies obtained using COADS and HIRS SSTs, even in the Northern Hemisphere where the datasets are most similar to each other. The internal variability of the circulation in the control simulation and the simulated atmospheric response to anomalous forcings appear to be linked in that the pattern of geopotential height anomalies obtained using COADS SSTs resembles the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF 1) in the control simulation. The corresponding pattern obtained using HIRS SSTs is substantially different and somewhat resembles EOF 2 in the sector from central North America to central Asia. To gain insight into the reasons for these results, three additional simulations are carried out with SST anomalies confined to regions where COADS SSTs are substantially warmer than HIRS SSTs. The regions correspond to warm pools in the northwest and northeast Pacific, and the northwest Atlantic. These warm pools tend to produce positive geopotential height anomalies in the northeastern part of the corresponding oceans. Both warm pools in the Pacific produce large-scale circulation anomalies with a pattern that resembles that obtained using COADS SSTs as well as EOF 1 of the control simulation; the warm pool in the Atlantic does not. These results suggest that the differences obtained with COADS SSTs and HIRS SSTs are mostly due to the differences in the datasets over the northern Pacific. There was a blocking episode near Greenland in late January 1979. Both simulations with warm SST anomalies over the northwest and northeast Pacific show a tendency toward increased incidence of North Atlantic blocking; the simulation with warm SST anomalies over the northwest Atlantic shows a tendency toward decreased incidence. These results suggest that features in both SST datasets that do not have a counterpart in the other dataset contribute signficantly to the differences between the simulated and observed fields. The results of this study imply that uncertainties in current SST distributions for the world oceans can be as important as the SST anomalies themselves in terms of their impact on the atmospheric circulation. Caution should be exercised, therefore, when linking anomalous circulation and SST patterns, especially in long-range prediction.

Global mean dynamic topography based on GOCE data and Wiener filters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilardoni, Maddalena; Reguzzoni, Mirko; Albertella, Alberta

2015-04-01

A mean dynamic ocean topography (MDT) has been computed by using a GOCE-only gravity model and a given mean sea surface (MSS) obtained from satellite altimetry. Since the used gravity model, i.e. the fifth release of the time-wise solution covering the full mission lifetime, is truncated at a maximum harmonic degree of 280, the obtained MDT has to be consistently filtered. This has been done globally by using the spherical harmonic representation and following a Wiener minimization principle. This global filtering approach is convenient from the computational point of view but requires to have MDT values all over the Earth surface and therefore to fill the continents with fictitious data. The main improvements with respect to the already presented results are in the MDT filling procedure (to guarantee that the global signal has the same covariance of the one over the oceans), in the error modelling of the input MSS and in the error estimation of the filtered MDT and of the corresponding geostrophic velocities. The impact of GOCE data in the ocean circulation global modelling has been assessed by comparing the pattern of the obtained geostrophic currents with those computed by using EGM2008. Comparisons with independent circulation data based on drifters and other MDT models have been also performed with the aim of evaluating the accuracy of the obtained results.

Impacts of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes in winter on black carbon transport and deposition to the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozzoli, Luca; Dobricic, Srdan; Russo, Simone; Vignati, Elisabetta

2017-10-01

Winter warming and sea-ice retreat observed in the Arctic in the last decades may be related to changes of large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern, which may impact the transport of black carbon (BC) to the Arctic and its deposition on the sea ice, with possible feedbacks on the regional and global climate forcing. In this study we developed and applied a statistical algorithm, based on the maximum likelihood estimate approach, to determine how the changes of three large-scale weather patterns associated with increasing temperatures in winter and sea-ice retreat in the Arctic impact the transport of BC to the Arctic and its deposition. We found that two atmospheric patterns together determine a decreasing winter deposition trend of BC between 1980 and 2015 in the eastern Arctic while they increase BC deposition in the western Arctic. The increasing BC trend is mainly due to a pattern characterized by a high-pressure anomaly near Scandinavia favouring the transport in the lower troposphere of BC from Europe and North Atlantic directly into to the Arctic. Another pattern with a high-pressure anomaly over the Arctic and low-pressure anomaly over the North Atlantic Ocean has a smaller impact on BC deposition but determines an increasing BC atmospheric load over the entire Arctic Ocean with increasing BC concentrations in the upper troposphere. The results show that changes in atmospheric circulation due to polar atmospheric warming and reduced winter sea ice significantly impacted BC transport and deposition. The anthropogenic emission reductions applied in the last decades were, therefore, crucial to counterbalance the most likely trend of increasing BC pollution in the Arctic.

Arctic climatechange and its impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic.

PubMed

Greene, Charles H; Pershing, Andrew J; Cronin, Thomas M; Ceci, Nicole

2008-11-01

Arctic climate change from the Paleocene epoch to the present is reconstructed with the objective of assessing its recent and future impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic. A recurring theme in Earth's paleoclimate record is the importance of the Arctic atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere in regulating global climate on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A second recurring theme in this record is the importance of freshwater export from the Arctic in regulating global- to basin-scale ocean circulation patterns and climate. Since the 1970s, historically unprecedented changes have been observed in the Arctic as climate warming has increased precipitation, river discharge, and glacial as well as sea-ice melting. In addition, modal shifts in the atmosphere have altered Arctic Ocean circulation patterns and the export of freshwater into the North Atlantic. The combination of these processes has resulted in variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean and the emergence of salinity anomalies that have periodically freshened waters in the North Atlantic. Since the early 1990s, changes in Arctic Ocean circulation patterns and freshwater export have been associated with two types of ecological responses in the North Atlantic. The first of these responses has been an ongoing series of biogeographic range expansions by boreal plankton, including renewal of the trans-Arctic exchanges of Pacific species with the Atlantic. The second response was a dramatic regime shift in the shelf ecosystems of the Northwest Atlantic that occurred during the early 1990s. This regime shift resulted from freshening and stratification of the shelf waters, which in turn could be linked to changes in the abundances and seasonal cycles of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and higher trophic-level consumer populations. It is predicted that the recently observed ecological responses to Arctic climate change in the North Atlantic will continue into the near future if current trends in sea ice, freshwater export, and surface ocean salinity continue. It is more difficult to predict ecological responses to abrupt climate change in the more distant future as tipping points in the Earth's climate system are exceeded.

How robust is the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in isolation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, P. J.; Hay, S. E.; Blackport, R.; McCusker, K. E.; Oudar, T.

2017-12-01

It is now apparent that active dynamical coupling between the ocean and atmosphere determines a good deal of how Arctic sea-ice loss changes the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In coupled ocean-atmosphere models, Arctic sea-ice loss indirectly induces a 'mini' global warming and circulation changes that extend into the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. Ocean-atmosphere coupling also amplifies by about 50% Arctic free-tropospheric warming arising from sea-ice loss (Deser et al. 2015, 2016). The mechanisms at work and how to separate the response to sea-ice loss from the rest of the global warming process remain poorly understood. Different studies have used distinctive numerical approaches and coupled ocean-atmosphere models to address this problem. We put these studies on comparable footing using pattern scaling (Blackport and Kushner 2017) to separately estimate the part of the circulation response that scales with sea-ice loss in the absence of low-latitude warming from the part that scales with low-latitude warming in the absence of sea-ice loss. We consider well-sampled simulations from three different coupled ocean-atmosphere models (CESM1, CanESM2, CNRM-CM5), in which greenhouse warming and sea-ice loss are driven in different ways (sea ice albedo reduction/transient RCP8.5 forcing for CESM1, nudged sea ice/CO2 doubling for CanESM2, heat-flux forcing/constant RCP8.5-derived forcing for CNRM-CM5). Across these different simulations, surprisingly robust influences of Arctic sea-ice loss on atmospheric circulation can be diagnosed using pattern scaling. For boreal winter, the isolated sea-ice loss effect acts to increase warming in the North American Sub-Arctic, decrease warming of the Eurasian continent, enhance precipitation over the west coast of North America, and strengthen the Aleutian Low and the Siberian High. We will also discuss how Arctic free tropospheric warming might be enhanced via midlatitude ocean surface warming induced by sea-ice loss. Less robust is the part of the response that scales with low-latitude warming, which, depending on the model, can reinforce or cancel the response to sea-ice loss. The extent to which a "tug of war" exists between tropical and high-latitude influences on the general circulation might thus be model dependent.

Detecting primary precursors of January surface air temperature anomalies in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Guirong; Ren, Hong-Li; Chen, Haishan; You, Qinglong

2017-12-01

This study aims to detect the primary precursors and impact mechanisms for January surface temperature anomaly (JSTA) events in China against the background of global warming, by comparing the causes of two extreme JSTA events occurring in 2008 and 2011 with the common mechanisms inferred from all typical episodes during 1979-2008. The results show that these two extreme events exhibit atmospheric circulation patterns in the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia, with a positive anomaly center over the Ural Mountains and a negative one to the south of Lake Baikal (UMLB), which is a pattern quite similar to that for all the typical events. However, the Eurasian teleconnection patterns in the 2011 event, which are accompanied by a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, are different to those of the typical events and the 2008 event. We further find that a common anomalous signal appearing in early summer over the tropical Indian Ocean may be responsible for the following late-winter Eurasian teleconnections and the associated JSTA events in China. We show that sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the preceding summer over the western Indian Ocean (WIO) are intimately related to the UMLB-like circulation pattern in the following January. Positive WIOSSTAs in early summer tend to induce strong UMLB-like circulation anomalies in January, which may result in anomalously or extremely cold events in China, which can also be successfully reproduced in model experiments. Our results suggest that the WIOSSTAs may be a useful precursor for predicting JSTA events in China.

Decoupling of Iron and Phosphate in the Global Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parekh, Payal

2003-01-01

Iron is an essential micronutrient for marine phytoplankton, limiting their growth in high nutrient, low chlorophyll regions of the ocean. I use a hierarchy of ocean circulation and biogeochemistry models to understand controls on global iron distribution. I formulate a mechanistic model of iron cycling which includes scavenging onto sinking particles and complexation with an organic ligand. The iron cycle is coupled to a phosphorus cycling model. Iron's aeolian source is prescribed. In the context of a highly idealized multi-box model scheme, the model can be brought into consistency with the relatively sparse ocean observations of iron in the oceans. This biogeochemical scheme is also implemented in a coarse resolution ocean general circulation model. This model also successfully reproduces the broad regional patterns of iron and phosphorus. In particular, the high macronutrient concentrations of the Southern Ocean result from iron limitation in the model. Due to the potential ability of iron to change the efficiency of the carbon pump in the remote Southern Ocean, I study Southern Ocean surface phosphate response to increased aeolian dust flux. My box model and GCM results suggest that a global ten fold increase in dust flux can support a phosphate drawdown of 0.25-0.5 micromolar.

Retrieved Latent Heating from TRMM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Smith, Eric A.; Houze Jr, Robert

2008-01-01

The global hydrological cycle is central to the Earth's climate system, with rainfall and the physics of precipitation formation acting as the key links in the cycle. Two-thirds of global rainfall occurs in the tropics with the associated latent heating (LH) accounting for three-fourths of the total heat energy available to the Earth's atmosphere. In addition, fresh water provided by tropical rainfall and its variability exerts a large impact upon the structure and motions of the upper ocean layer. In the last decade, it has been established that standard products of LH from satellite measurements, particularly TRMM measurements, would be a valuable resource for scientific research and applications. Such products would enable new insights and investigations concerning the complexities of convection system life cycles, the diabatic heating controls and feedbacks related to meso-synoptic circulations and their forecasting, the relationship of tropical patterns of LH to the global circulation and climate, and strategies for improving cloud parameterizations in environmental prediction models. The status of retrieved TRMM LH products, TRMM LH inter-comparison and validation project, current TRMM LH applications and critic issues/action items (based on previous five TRMM LH workshops) is presented in this article.

Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmstorf, S.; Caesar, L.; Feulner, G.; Robinson, A.; Saba, V. S.

2017-12-01

The overturning circulation of the Atlantic Ocean (AMOC) has a major impact on climate, yet its evolution over the past hundred years or so is poorly known for lack of direct measurements. We use a high-resolution global climate model to derive a characteristic spatial and seasonal fingerprint of AMOC changes and compare this to the observed linear temperature trend since 1870. Both the model and observations show a remarkably similar pattern of a cooling in the subpolar gyre region (most pronounced for the November to May season) and a warming in the Gulf Stream region which in their combination can only be explained by a reduction in the AMOC. We explain the mechanisms that link the pattern to an AMOC slowdown, and use an ensemble of CMIP5 simulations to calibrate the observed decline. This suggests a weakening of the AMOC by 3 Sv ( 16%) since the mid-20th Century. Its recent evolution is consistent with direct measurements in the RAPID project and reaches record low values in recent years.

Measuring accessibility of sustainable transportation using space syntax in Bojonggede area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suryawinata, B. A.; Mariana, Y.; Wijaksono, S.

2017-12-01

Changes in the physical structure of regional space as a result of the increase of planned and unplanned settlements in the Bojonggede area have an impact on the road network pattern system. Changes in road network patterns will have an impact on the permeability of the area. Permeability measures the extent to which road network patterns provide an option in traveling. If the permeability increases the travel distance decreases and the route of travel choice increases, permeability like this can create an easy access system and physically integrated. This study aims to identify the relationship of physical characteristics of residential area and road network pattern to the level of space permeability in Bojonggede area. By conducting this research can be a reference for the arrangement of circulation, accessibility, and land use in the vicinity of Bojonggede. This research uses quantitative method and space syntax method to see global integration and local integration on the region which become the parameter of permeability level. The results showed that the level of permeability globally and locally high in Bojonggede physical area is the physical characteristics of the area that has a grid pattern of road network grid.

The scaling structure of the global road network

PubMed Central

Giometto, Andrea; Shai, Saray; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mucha, Peter J.; Rinaldo, Andrea

2017-01-01

Because of increasing global urbanization and its immediate consequences, including changes in patterns of food demand, circulation and land use, the next century will witness a major increase in the extent of paved roads built worldwide. To model the effects of this increase, it is crucial to understand whether possible self-organized patterns are inherent in the global road network structure. Here, we use the largest updated database comprising all major roads on the Earth, together with global urban and cropland inventories, to suggest that road length distributions within croplands are indistinguishable from urban ones, once rescaled to account for the difference in mean road length. Such similarity extends to road length distributions within urban or agricultural domains of a given area. We find two distinct regimes for the scaling of the mean road length with the associated area, holding in general at small and at large values of the latter. In suitably large urban and cropland domains, we find that mean and total road lengths increase linearly with their domain area, differently from earlier suggestions. Scaling regimes suggest that simple and universal mechanisms regulate urban and cropland road expansion at the global scale. As such, our findings bear implications for global road infrastructure growth based on land-use change and for planning policies sustaining urban expansions. PMID:29134071

The scaling structure of the global road network.

PubMed

Strano, Emanuele; Giometto, Andrea; Shai, Saray; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mucha, Peter J; Rinaldo, Andrea

2017-10-01

Because of increasing global urbanization and its immediate consequences, including changes in patterns of food demand, circulation and land use, the next century will witness a major increase in the extent of paved roads built worldwide. To model the effects of this increase, it is crucial to understand whether possible self-organized patterns are inherent in the global road network structure. Here, we use the largest updated database comprising all major roads on the Earth, together with global urban and cropland inventories, to suggest that road length distributions within croplands are indistinguishable from urban ones, once rescaled to account for the difference in mean road length. Such similarity extends to road length distributions within urban or agricultural domains of a given area. We find two distinct regimes for the scaling of the mean road length with the associated area, holding in general at small and at large values of the latter. In suitably large urban and cropland domains, we find that mean and total road lengths increase linearly with their domain area, differently from earlier suggestions. Scaling regimes suggest that simple and universal mechanisms regulate urban and cropland road expansion at the global scale. As such, our findings bear implications for global road infrastructure growth based on land-use change and for planning policies sustaining urban expansions.

Variability of sea surface height and circulation in the North Atlantic: Forcing mechanisms and linkages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zeliang; Lu, Youyu; Dupont, Frederic; W. Loder, John; Hannah, Charles; G. Wright, Daniel

2015-03-01

Simulations with a coarse-resolution global ocean model during 1958-2004 are analyzed to understand the inter-annual and decadal variability of the North Atlantic. Analyses of Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) suggest relationships among basin-scale variations of sea surface height (SSH) and depth-integrated circulation, and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) indices. The linkages between the atmospheric indices and ocean variables are shown to be related to the different roles played by surface momentum and heat fluxes in driving ocean variability. In the subpolar region, variations of the gyre strength, SSH in the central Labrador Sea and the NAO index are highly correlated. Surface heat flux is important in driving variations of SSH and circulation in the upper ocean and decadal variations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Surface momentum flux drives a significant barotropic component of flow and makes a noticeable contribution to the AMOC. In the subtropical region, momentum flux plays a dominant role in driving variations of the gyre circulation and AMOC; there is a strong correlation between gyre strength and SSH at Bermuda.

Intercomparison of hydrologic processes in global climate models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, W. K.-M.; Sud, Y. C.; Kim, J.-H.

1995-01-01

In this report, we address the intercomparison of precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and surface hydrologic forcing (P-E) for 23 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) general circulation models (GCM's) including relevant observations, over a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The intercomparison includes global and hemispheric means, latitudinal profiles, selected area means for the tropics and extratropics, ocean and land, respectively. In addition, we have computed anomaly pattern correlations among models and observations for different seasons, harmonic analysis for annual and semiannual cycles, and rain-rate frequency distribution. We also compare the joint influence of temperature and precipitation on local climate using the Koeppen climate classification scheme.

Going with the flow: the role of ocean circulation in global marine ecosystems under a changing climate.

PubMed

van Gennip, Simon J; Popova, Ekaterina E; Yool, Andrew; Pecl, Gretta T; Hobday, Alistair J; Sorte, Cascade J B

2017-07-01

Ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced productivity are widely considered to be the major stressors to ocean ecosystems induced by emissions of CO 2 . However, an overlooked stressor is the change in ocean circulation in response to climate change. Strong changes in the intensity and position of the western boundary currents have already been observed, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems are beginning to emerge. In this study, we address climatically induced changes in ocean circulation on a global scale but relevant to propagule dispersal for species inhabiting global shelf ecosystems, using a high-resolution global ocean model run under the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario. The ¼ degree model resolution allows improved regional realism of the ocean circulation beyond that of available CMIP5-class models. We use a Lagrangian approach forced by modelled ocean circulation to simulate the circulation pathways that disperse planktonic life stages. Based on trajectory backtracking, we identify present-day coastal retention, dominant flow and dispersal range for coastal regions at the global scale. Projecting into the future, we identify areas of the strongest projected circulation change and present regional examples with the most significant modifications in their dominant pathways. Climatically induced changes in ocean circulation should be considered as an additional stressor of marine ecosystems in a similar way to ocean warming or acidification. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; Müller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.

2013-10-01

In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

Late-Middle Quaternary lithostratigraphy and sedimentation patterns on the Alpha Ridge, central Arctic Ocean: Implications for Arctic climate variability on orbital time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Rujian; Polyak, Leonid; Xiao, Wenshen; Wu, Li; Zhang, Taoliang; Sun, Yechen; Xu, Xiaomei

2018-02-01

We use sediment cores collected by the Chinese National Arctic Research Expeditions from the Alpha Ridge to advance Quaternary stratigraphy and paleoceanographic reconstructions for the Arctic Ocean. Our cores show a good litho/biostratigraphic correlation to sedimentary records developed earlier for the central Arctic Ocean, suggesting a recovered stratigraphic range of ca. 0.6 Ma, suitable for paleoclimatic studies on orbital time scales. This stratigraphy was tested by correlating the stacked Alpha Ridge record of bulk XRF manganese, calcium and zirconium (Mn, Ca, Zr), to global stable-isotope (LR04-δ18O) and sea-level stacks and tuning to orbital parameters. Correlation results corroborate the applicability of presumed climate/sea-level controlled Mn variations in the Arctic Ocean for orbital tuning. This approach enables better understanding of the global and orbital controls on the Arctic climate. Orbital tuning experiments for our records indicate strong eccentricity (100-kyr) and precession (∼20-kyr) controls on the Arctic Ocean, probably implemented via glaciations and sea ice. Provenance proxies like Ca and Zr are shown to be unsuitable as orbital tuning tools, but useful as indicators of glacial/deglacial processes and circulation patterns in the Arctic Ocean. Their variations suggest an overall long-term persistence of the Beaufort Gyre circulation in the Alpha Ridge region. Some glacial intervals, e.g., MIS 6 and 4/3, are predominated by material presumably transported by the Transpolar Drift. These circulation shifts likely indicate major changes in the Arctic climatic regime, which yet need to be investigated. Overall, our results demonstrate applicability of XRF data to paleoclimatic studies of the Arctic Ocean.

Strong IMF By-Related Plasma Convection in the Ionosphere and Cusp Field-Aligned Currents Under Northward IMF Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Le, G.; Lu, G.; Strangeway, R. J.; Pfaff, R. F., Jr.; Vondrak, Richard R. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

We present in this paper an investigation of IMF-By related plasma convection and cusp field-aligned currents using FAST data and AMIE model during a prolonged interval with large positive IMF By and northward Bz conditions (By/Bz much greater than 1). Using the FAST single trajectory observations to validate the global convection patterns at key times and key locations, we have demonstrated that the AMIE procedure provides a reasonably good description of plasma circulations in the ionosphere during this interval. Our results show that the plasma convection in the ionosphere is consistent with the anti-parallel merging model. When the IMF has a strongly positive By component under northward conditions, we find that the global plasma convection forms two cells oriented nearly along the Sun-earth line in the ionosphere. In the northern hemisphere, the dayside cell has clockwise convection mainly circulating within the polar cap on open field lines. A second cell with counterclockwise convection is located in the nightside circulating across the polar cap boundary, The observed two-cell convection pattern appears to be driven by the reconnection along the anti-parallel merging lines poleward of the cusp extending toward the dusk side when IMF By/Bz much greater than 1. The magnetic tension force on the newly reconnected field lines drives the plasma to move from dusk to dawn in the polar cusp region near the polar cap boundary. The field-aligned currents in the cusp region flow downward into the ionosphere. The return field-aligned currents extend into the polar cap in the center of the dayside convection cell. The field-aligned currents are closed through the Peterson currents in the ionosphere, which flow poleward from the polar cap boundary along the electric field direction.

The local, remote, and global consequences of climate feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldl, Nicole

Climate feedbacks offer a powerful framework for revealing the energetic pathways by which the system adjusts to an imposed forcing, such as an increase in atmospheric CO2. We investigate how local atmospheric feedbacks, such as those associated with Arctic sea ice and the Walker circulation, affect both global climate sensitivity and spatial patterns of warming. Emphasis is placed on a general circulation model with idealized boundary conditions, for the clarity it provides. For this aquaplanet simulation, we account for rapid tropospheric adjustments to CO2 and explicitly diagnose feedbacks (using radiative kernels) and forcing for this precise model set-up. In particular, a detailed closure of the energy budget within a clean experimental set-up allows us to consider nonlinear interactions between feedbacks. The inclusion of a tropical Walker circulation is found to prime the Hadley Circulation for a larger deceleration under CO2 doubling, by altering subtropical stratus decks and the meridional feedback gradient. We perform targeted experiments to isolate the atmospheric processes responsible for the variability in climate sensitivity, with implications for high-sensitivity paleoclimates. The local climate response is characterized in terms of the meridional structure of feedbacks, atmospheric heat transport, nonlinearities, and forcing. Our results display a combination of positive subtropical feedbacks and polar amplified warming. These two factors imply a critical role for transport and nonlinear effects, with the latter acting to substantially reduce global climate sensitivity. At the hemispheric scale, a rich picture emerges: anomalous divergence of heat flux away from positive feedbacks in the subtropics; clear-sky nonlinearities that reinforce the pattern of tropical cooling and high-latitude warming tendencies; and strong ice-line feedbacks that drive further amplification of polar warming. These results have implications for regional climate predictability, by providing an indication of how spatial patterns in feedbacks combine to affect both the local and nonlocal climate response, and how constraining uncertainty in those feedbacks may constrain the climate response. We also consider how competing definitions of feedbacks influence interpretation of climate sensitivity. While climate feedbacks represent a convenient breakdown of the energy balance, their widespread appeal has led to a profusion of definitions, and to variations upon the traditional decomposition. We demonstrate that a locally defined feedback framework does provide several advantages from the perspective of regional climate predictability. Namely, it enables a partial temperature change analysis which quantifies contributions to spatial patterns of warming; it also ensures feedbacks are not biased at high latitudes due to polar amplification. Alternative approaches to characterizing feedbacks can also isolate and illuminate different atmospheric processes. In particular, comparison of two versions of the water vapor feedback, one focused on specific humidity and the other on relative humidity, allows for an elegant dissection of the relative importance of thermodynamical and dynamical changes in a warmer world.

Eddy Resolving Global Ocean Prediction including Tides

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the subpolar North Atlantic . Journal of Geophysical Research vol 118, doi:10.1002/jgrc,20065. [published, refereed] ...global ocean circulation model was examined using results from years 2005-2009 of a seven and a half year 1/12.5° global simulation that resolves...internal tides, along with barotropic tides and the eddying general circulation . We examined tidal amplitudes computed using 18 183-day windows that

Earth aeolian wind streaks: Comparison to wind data from model and stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen-Zada, A. L.; Maman, S.; Blumberg, D. G.

2017-05-01

Wind streak is a collective term for a variety of aeolian features that display distinctive albedo surface patterns. Wind streaks have been used to map near-surface winds and to estimate atmospheric circulation patterns on Mars and Venus. However, because wind streaks have been studied mostly on Mars and Venus, much of the knowledge regarding the mechanism and time frame of their formation and their relationship to the atmospheric circulation cannot be verified. This study aims to validate previous studies' results by a comparison of real and modeled wind data with wind streak orientations as measured from remote-sensing images. Orientations of Earth wind streaks were statistically correlated to resultant drift direction (RDD) values calculated from reanalysis and wind data from 621 weather stations. The results showed good agreement between wind streak orientations and reanalysis RDD (r = 0.78). A moderate correlation was found between the wind streak orientations and the weather station data (r = 0.47); a similar trend was revealed on a regional scale when the analysis was performed by continent, with r ranging from 0.641 in North America to 0.922 in Antarctica. At sites where wind streak orientations did not correspond to the RDDs (i.e., a difference of 45°), seasonal and diurnal variations in the wind flow were found to be responsible for deviation from the global pattern. The study thus confirms that Earth wind streaks were formed by the present wind regime and they are indeed indicative of the long-term prevailing wind direction on global and regional scales.

Multi-scale ocean and climate drivers of widespread bleaching in the Coral Triangle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drenkard, E.; Curchitser, E. N.; Kleypas, J. A.; Castruccio, F. S.

2016-12-01

The Maritime Continent is home to the Coral Triangle (CT): the global pinnacle of tropical coral biodiversity. Historically, extensive bleaching-induced mortality (caused by thermal stress) among corals in the CT has been associated with extremes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), particularly years when a strong El Niños transitions to a La Niña state (i.e., 1998 and 2010). Similarities in the spatial distribution of satellite-derived indices, and the multi-scale environmental drivers of elevated sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during the 1998 and 2010 bleaching events suggests a potential predictability that has important implications for reef conservation. Using numerical models and ocean and atmosphere reanalysis products, we discuss the roles of ENSO-associated anomalies in both large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (e.g., South Asian Monsoon) and regional ocean-cooling mechanisms such as coastal upwelling, tropical storm activity, and divergent (i.e., upwelling) circulation patterns (e.g., the Mindanao Eddy) in determining SSTs and, consequently projected patterns of reef ecosystem vulnerability to thermal stress. Conditions associated with the recent and ongoing 2015/2016 coral bleaching and mortality will be compared/contrasted.

The role of precipitation in aerosol-induced changes in northern hemisphere wintertime stationary waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewinschal, A.; Ekman, A. M. L.; Körnich, H.

2012-04-01

Aerosol particles have a considerable impact on the energy budget of the atmosphere due to their ability to scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation. Persistent particle emissions in certain regions of the world have lead to quasi-permanent aerosol forcing patterns. This spatially varying forcing pattern has the potential to modify temperature gradients that in turn alter pressure gradients and the atmospheric circulation. This study focuses on the effect of aerosol direct radiative forcing on northern hemisphere wintertime stationary waves. A global general circulation model based on the ECMWF operational forecast model is applied (EC-Earth). Aerosols are prescribed as monthly mean mixing ratios of sulphate, black carbon, organic carbon, dust and sea salt. Only the direct aerosol effect is considered. The climatic change is defined as the difference between model simulations using present-day and pre-industrial concentrations of aerosol particles. Data from 40-year long simulations using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model system are used. In EC-Earth, the high aerosol loading over South Asia leads to a surface cooling, which appears to enhance the South Asian winter monsoon and weaken the Indian Ocean Walker circulation. The anomalous Walker circulation leads to changes in tropical convective precipitation and consequent changes in latent heat release which effectively acts to generate planetary scale waves propagating into the extra-tropics. Using a steady-state linear model we verify that the aerosol-induced anomalous convective precipitation is a crucial link between the wave changes and the direct aerosol radiative forcing.

Miocene shift of European atmospheric circulation from trade wind to westerlies

PubMed Central

Quan, Cheng; Liu, Yu-Sheng (Christopher); Tang, Hui; Utescher, Torsten

2014-01-01

The modern European climatic regime is peculiar, due to its unitary winter but diverse summer climates and a pronounced Mediterranean climate in the south. However, little is known on its evolution in the deep time. Here we reconstruct the European summer climate conditions in the Tortonian (11.62–7.246 Ma) using plant fossil assemblages from 75 well-dated sites across Europe. Our results clearly show that the Tortonian Europe mainly had humid to subhumid summers and no arid climate has been conclusively detected, indicating that the summer-dry Mediterranean-type climate has not yet been established along most of the Mediterranean coast at least by the Tortonian. More importantly, the reconstructed distribution pattern of summer precipitation reveals that the Tortonian European must have largely been controlled by westerlies, resulting in higher precipitation in the west and the lower in the east. The Tortonian westerly wind field appears to differ principally from the trade wind pattern of the preceding Serravallian (13.82–11.62 Ma), recently deduced from herpetofaunal fossils. Such a shift in atmospheric circulation, if ever occurred, might result from the development of ice caps and glaciers in the polar region during the Late Miocene global cooling, the then reorganization of oceanic circulation, and/or the Himalayan-Tibetan uplift. PMID:25012454

Common Warming Pattern Emerges Irrespective of Forcing Location

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Sarah M.; Park, Kiwoong; Jin, Fei-Fei; Stuecker, Malte F.

2017-10-01

The Earth's climate is changing due to the existence of multiple radiative forcing agents. It is under question whether different forcing agents perturb the global climate in a distinct way. Previous studies have demonstrated the existence of similar climate response patterns in response to aerosol and greenhouse gas (GHG) forcings. In this study, the sensitivity of tropospheric temperature response patterns to surface heating distributions is assessed by forcing an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to an aquaplanet slab ocean with a wide range of possible forcing patterns. We show that a common climate pattern emerges in response to localized forcing at different locations. This pattern, characterized by enhanced warming in the tropical upper troposphere and the polar lower troposphere, resembles the historical trends from observations and models as well as the future projections. Atmospheric dynamics in combination with thermodynamic air-sea coupling are primarily responsible for shaping this pattern. Identifying this common pattern strengthens our confidence in the projected response to GHG and aerosols in complex climate models.

Remote Sensing and halocene Vegetation: History of Global Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

D'Antoni, Hector L.; Schaebitz, Frank

1995-01-01

Predictions of the future evolution of the earth's atmospheric chemistry and its impact on global circulation patterns are based on Global Climate Models (GCMs) that integrate the complex interactions of the biosphere, atmosphere and the oceans. Most of the available records of climate and environment are short-term records (from decades to a few hundred years) with convolved information of real trends and short-term fluctuations. GCMs must be tested beyond the short-term record of climate and environment to insure that predictions are based on trends and therefore are appropriate to support long term policy making. Unfortunately different parts of the world, weather stations are scattered, records extend over a period of only few years, and there are no systematic climate records for large portions of the globe.

Global Synthesis of Common Era Hydroclimate using Water Isotope Proxies from Multiple Archives: First Results from the PAGES Iso2k Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konecky, B. L.; Partin, J. W.; Conroy, J. L.; Fischer, M.; Jones, M.; Jonkers, L.; McKay, N.; Stevenson, S.; Thompson, D. M.; Tyler, J. J.; Churakova (Sidorova), O.; Comas-Bru, L.; Dassie, E. P.; Dee, S.; DeLong, K. L.; Falster, G.; Martrat, B.

2017-12-01

Global, multi-proxy paleoclimate data syntheses for the Common Era (CE) have revealed a long-term cooling over the past millennium followed by a recent warming, with possible multi-decadal to centennial temperature variability in some regions. However, changes in atmospheric-oceanic circulation or hydroclimate have yet to be assessed on a global scale. Excellently suited to this purpose are proxies for the δ18O and δD of environmental waters found in glacier and ground ice, speleothems, corals, tree rings, and lake and marine sediments, which track common signals related to circulation and hydroclimate. Here, we utilize the new PAGES Iso2k database, a global compilation of CE δ18O and δD records, to investigate spatiotemporal variability and secular trends in global hydroclimate during the past 2 kyr. Overall, subtle but robust circulation shifts are apparent during the CE. We find preliminary evidence for secular trends in δ18O of lake water, precipitation/soil water, and seawater, with the direction and magnitude of trends varying by the type of environmental water (e.g., precipitation vs. seawater) and by region. We also find evidence for centennial-scale variations in regional δ18O and δD, for example a basin-wide Atlantic δ18Oseawater anomaly emerging during the 18th century and possible freshening of the western Pacific during the 20th century. On land, latitudinal trends in mean CE δ18Olake are consistent with present day gradients of δ18Oprecipitation, with evaporation exerting additional strong influence at mid-latitudes. In the ocean, coral δ18O in the western equatorial Pacific is found to reflect salinity rather than (or in addition to) temperature, providing potential quantitative constraints on past moisture balance from corals. We evaluate the dynamics of these spatiotemporal patterns through comparison with isotope-enabled model simulations, discuss relevant climatic inferences, and reexamine proxy interpretations.

In the hot seat : Insolation and ENSO controls on vegetation productivity in tropical Africa inferred from NDVI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivory, S.; Russell, J. L.; Cohen, A. S.

2010-12-01

Threats to tropical biodiversity with serious and costly implications for both ecosystems and human well-being in Africa have led the IPCC to classify this region as vulnerable to negative impacts from climate change. Yet little is known about how vegetation communities respond to altered patterns of rainfall and evaporation. Paleoclimate records within the tropics can help answer questions about how vegetation response to climate forcing changes over time. However, sparse spatial extent of records and uncertainty surrounding the climate-vegetation relationship complicate these insights. Understanding the climatic mechanisms involved in landscape change at all temporal scales creates the need for quantitative constraints of the modern relationship between climatic controls, hydrology, and vegetation. Though modern observational data can help elucidate this relationship, low resolution and complicated rainfall/vegetation associations make them less than ideal. Satellite data of vegetation productivity (NDVI) with continuous high-resolution spatial coverage provides a robust and elegant tool for identifying the link between global and regional controls and vegetation. We use regression analyses of variables either previously proposed or potentially important in regulating Afro-tropical vegetation (insolation, out-going long-wave radiation, geopotential height, Southern Oscillation Index, Indian Ocean Dipole, Indian Monsoon precipitation, sea-level pressure, surface wind, sea-surface temperature) on continuous, time-varying spatial fields of 8km NDVI for sub-Saharan Africa. These analyses show the importance of global atmospheric controls in producing regional intra-annual and inter-annual vegetation variability. Dipole patterns emerge primarily correlated with both the seasonal and inter-annual extent of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Inter-annual ITCZ variability drives patterns in African vegetation resulting from the effect of insolation anomalies and ENSO events on atmospheric circulation rather than sea surface temperatures or teleconnections to mid/high latitudes. Global controls on tropical atmospheric circulation regulate vegetation throughout sub-Saharan Africa on many time scales through alteration of dry season length and moisture convergence, rather than precipitation amount.

Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, L. H.; Collins, W. J.; Olivié, D. J. L.; Cherian, R.; Hodnebrog, Ø.; Myhre, G.; Quaas, J.

2015-07-01

Policies to control air quality focus on mitigating emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). On a local scale, these policies will have beneficial impacts on health and crop yields, by reducing particulate matter (PM) and surface ozone concentrations; however, the climate impacts of reducing emissions of SLCPs are less straightforward to predict. In this paper we consider a set of idealized, extreme mitigation strategies, in which the total anthropogenic emissions of individual SLCP emissions species are removed. This provides an upper bound on the potential climate impacts of such air quality strategies. We focus on evaluating the climate responses to changes in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol precursor species: black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulphur dioxide (SO2). We perform climate integrations with four fully coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCMs), and examine the effects on global and regional climate of removing the total land-based anthropogenic emissions of each of the three aerosol precursor species. We find that the SO2 emissions reductions lead to the strongest response, with all models showing an increase in surface temperature focussed in the Northern Hemisphere mid and (especially) high latitudes, and showing a corresponding increase in global mean precipitation. Changes in precipitation patterns are driven mostly by a northward shift in the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone), consistent with the hemispherically asymmetric warming pattern driven by the emissions changes. The BC and OC emissions reductions give a much weaker response, and there is some disagreement between models in the sign of the climate responses to these perturbations. These differences between models are due largely to natural variability in sea-ice extent, circulation patterns and cloud changes. This large natural variability component to the signal when the ocean circulation and sea-ice are free-running means that the BC and OC mitigation measures do not necessarily lead to a discernible climate response.

Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, L. H.; Collins, W. J.; Olivié, D. J. L.; Cherian, R.; Hodnebrog, Ø.; Myhre, G.; Quaas, J.; Samset, B. H.

2015-02-01

Policies to control air quality focus on mitigating emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). On a local scale, these policies will have beneficial impacts on health and crop yields, by reducing particulate matter (PM) and surface ozone concentrations; however, the climate impacts of reducing emissions of SLCPs are less straightforward to predict. In this paper we consider a set of idealised, extreme mitigation strategies, in which the total anthropogenic emissions of individual SLCP emissions species are removed. This provides an upper bound on the potential climate impacts of such air quality strategies. We focus on evaluating the climate responses to changes in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol precursor species: black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulphur dioxide (SO2). We perform climate integrations with four fully coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCMs), and examine the effects on global and regional climate of removing the total land-based anthropogenic emissions of each of the three aerosol precursor species. We find that the SO2 emissions reductions lead to the strongest response, with all three models showing an increase in surface temperature focussed in the northern hemisphere high latitudes, and a corresponding increase in global mean precipitation and run-off. Changes in precipitation and run-off patterns are driven mostly by a northward shift in the ITCZ, consistent with the hemispherically asymmetric warming pattern driven by the emissions changes. The BC and OC emissions reductions give a much weaker forcing signal, and there is some disagreement between models in the sign of the climate responses to these perturbations. These differences between models are due largely to natural variability in sea-ice extent, circulation patterns and cloud changes. This large natural variability component to the signal when the ocean circulation and sea-ice are free-running means that the BC and OC mitigation measures do not necessarily lead to a discernible climate response.

Assessing water quality of the Chesapeake Bay by the impact of sea level rise and warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, P.; Linker, L.; Wang, H.; Bhatt, G.; Yactayo, G.; Hinson, K.; Tian, R.

2017-08-01

The influence of sea level rise and warming on circulation and water quality of the Chesapeake Bay under projected climate conditions in 2050 were estimated by computer simulation. Four estuarine circulation scenarios in the estuary were run using the same watershed load in 1991-2000 period. They are, 1) the Base Scenario, which represents the current climate condition, 2) a Sea Level Rise Scenario, 3) a Warming Scenario, and 4) a combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario. With a 1.6-1.9°C increase in monthly air temperatures in the Warming Scenario, water temperature in the Bay is estimated to increase by 0.8-1°C. Summer average anoxic volume is estimated to increase 1.4 percent compared to the Base Scenario, because of an increase in algal blooms in the spring and summer, promotion of oxygen consumptive processes, and an increase of stratification. However, a 0.5-meter Sea Level Rise Scenario results in a 12 percent reduction of anoxic volume. This is mainly due to increased estuarine circulation that promotes oxygen-rich sea water intrusion in lower layers. The combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario results in a 10.8 percent reduction of anoxic volume. Global warming increases precipitation and consequently increases nutrient loads from the watershed by approximately 5-7 percent. A scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and current estuarine circulation patterns yielded a 19 percent increase in summer anoxic volume, while a scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and modified estuarine circulation patterns by the aforementioned sea level rise and warming yielded a 6 percent increase in summer anoxic volume. Impacts on phytoplankton, sediments, and water clarity were also analysed.

Circulation pattern-based assessment of projected climate change for a catchment in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Hoshin V.; Sapriza-Azuri, Gonzalo; Jódar, Jorge; Carrera, Jesús

2018-01-01

We present an approach for evaluating catchment-scale hydro-meteorological impacts of projected climate change based on the atmospheric circulation patterns (ACPs) of a region. Our approach is motivated by the conjecture that GCMs are especially good at simulating the atmospheric circulation patterns that control moisture transport, and which can be expected to change in response to global warming. In support of this, we show (for the late 20th century) that GCMs provide much better simulations of ACPs than those of precipitation amount for the Upper Guadiana Basin in central Spain. For the same period, four of the twenty GCMs participating in the most recent (5th) IPCC Assessment provide quite accurate representations of the spatial patterns of mean sea level pressure, the frequency distribution of ACP type, the 'number of rainy days per month', and the daily 'probability of rain' (they also reproduce the trend of 'wet day amount', though not the actual magnitudes). A consequent analysis of projected trends and changes in hydro-climatic ACPology between the late 20th and 21st Centuries indicates that (1) actual changes appear to be occurring faster than predicted by the models, and (2) for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) the expected decline in precipitation volume is associated mainly with a few specific ACPs (primarily directional flows from the Atlantic Ocean and Cantabric Sea), and with decreasing probability of rain (linked to increasing temperatures) rather than wet day amount. Our approach is a potentially more insightful alternative for catchment-scale climate impacts assessments than the common approach of statistical downscaling and bias correction.

Impact of Greenland orography on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davini, P.; Hardenberg, J.; Filippi, L.; Provenzale, A.

2015-02-01

We show that the absence of the Greenland ice sheet would have important consequences on the North Atlantic Ocean circulation, even without taking into account the effect of the freshwater input to the ocean from ice melting. These effects are investigated in a 600year long coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation with the high-resolution global climate model EC-Earth 3.0.1. Once a new equilibrium is established, a cooling of Eurasia and of the North Atlantic and a poleward shift of the subtropical jet are observed. These hemispheric changes are ascribed to a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) by about 12%. We attribute this slowdown to a reduction in salinity of the Arctic basin and to the related change of the mass and salt transport through the Fram Strait—a consequence of the new surface wind pattern over the lower orography. This idealized experiment illustrates the sensitivity of the AMOC to local surface winds.

Projected changes of the low-latitude north-western Pacific wind-driven circulation under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Jing; Chen, Zhaohui; Wu, Lixin

2017-05-01

Based on the outputs of 25 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, the projected changes of the wind-driven circulation in the low-latitude north-western Pacific are evaluated. Results demonstrate that there will be a decrease in the mean transport of the North Equatorial Current (NEC), Mindanao Current, and Kuroshio Current in the east of the Philippines, accompanied by a northward shift of the NEC bifurcation Latitude (NBL) off the Philippine coast with over 30% increase in its seasonal south-north migration amplitude. Numerical simulations using a 1.5-layer nonlinear reduced-gravity ocean model show that the projected changes of the upper ocean circulation are predominantly determined by the robust weakening of the north-easterly trade winds and the associated wind stress curl under the El Niño-like warming pattern. The changes in the wind forcing and intensified upper ocean stratification are found equally important in amplifying the seasonal migration of the NBL.

Assimilation of TOPEX/POSEIDON Altimeter Data into a Global Ocean Circulation Model: Are the Results Any Good?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fukumori, I.; Fu, L. L.; Chao, Y.

1998-01-01

The feasibility of assimilating satellite altimetry data into a global ocean general ocean general circulation model is studied. Three years of TOPEX/POSEIDON data is analyzed using a global, three-dimensional, nonlinear primitive equation model.

Nonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM) for global cloud resolving simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satoh, M.; Matsuno, T.; Tomita, H.; Miura, H.; Nasuno, T.; Iga, S.

2008-03-01

A new type of ultra-high resolution atmospheric global circulation model is developed. The new model is designed to perform "cloud resolving simulations" by directly calculating deep convection and meso-scale circulations, which play key roles not only in the tropical circulations but in the global circulations of the atmosphere. Since cores of deep convection have a few km in horizontal size, they have not directly been resolved by existing atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). In order to drastically enhance horizontal resolution, a new framework of a global atmospheric model is required; we adopted nonhydrostatic governing equations and icosahedral grids to the new model, and call it Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM). In this article, we review governing equations and numerical techniques employed, and present the results from the unique 3.5-km mesh global experiments—with O(10 9) computational nodes—using realistic topography and land/ocean surface thermal forcing. The results show realistic behaviors of multi-scale convective systems in the tropics, which have not been captured by AGCMs. We also argue future perspective of the roles of the new model in the next generation atmospheric sciences.

Climate Dynamics and Hysteresis at Low and High Obliquity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colose, C.; Del Genio, A. D.; Way, M.

2017-12-01

We explore the large-scale climate dynamics at low and high obliquity for an Earth-like planet using the ROCKE-3D (Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics) 3-D General Circulation model being developed at NASA GISS as part of the Nexus for Exoplanet System Science (NExSS) initiative. We highlight the role of ocean heat storage and transport in determining the seasonal cycle at high obliquity, and describe the large-scale circulation and resulting regional climate patterns using both aquaplanet and Earth topographical boundary conditions. Finally, we contrast the hysteresis structure to varying CO2 concentration for a low and high obliquity planet near the outer edge of the habitable zone. We discuss the prospects for habitability for a high obliquity planet susceptible to global glaciation.

Whole-mantle convection with tectonic plates preserves long-term global patterns of upper mantle geochemistry.

PubMed

Barry, T L; Davies, J H; Wolstencroft, M; Millar, I L; Zhao, Z; Jian, P; Safonova, I; Price, M

2017-05-12

The evolution of the planetary interior during plate tectonics is controlled by slow convection within the mantle. Global-scale geochemical differences across the upper mantle are known, but how they are preserved during convection has not been adequately explained. We demonstrate that the geographic patterns of chemical variations around the Earth's mantle endure as a direct result of whole-mantle convection within largely isolated cells defined by subducting plates. New 3D spherical numerical models embedded with the latest geological paleo-tectonic reconstructions and ground-truthed with new Hf-Nd isotope data, suggest that uppermost mantle at one location (e.g. under Indian Ocean) circulates down to the core-mantle boundary (CMB), but returns within ≥100 Myrs via large-scale convection to its approximate starting location. Modelled tracers pool at the CMB but do not disperse ubiquitously around it. Similarly, mantle beneath the Pacific does not spread to surrounding regions of the planet. The models fit global patterns of isotope data and may explain features such as the DUPAL anomaly and long-standing differences between Indian and Pacific Ocean crust. Indeed, the geochemical data suggests this mode of convection could have influenced the evolution of mantle composition since 550 Ma and potentially since the onset of plate tectonics.

The Breath of Planet Earth: Atmospheric Circulation. Assimilation of Surface Wind Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atlas, Robert; Bloom, Stephen; Otterman, Joseph

2000-01-01

Differences in air pressure are a major cause of atmospheric circulation. Because heat excites the movement of atoms, warm temperatures cause, air molecules to expand. Because those molecules now occupy a larger space, the pressure that their weight exerts is decreased. Air from surrounding high-pressure areas is pushed toward the low-pressure areas, creating circulation. This process causes a major pattern of global atmosphere movement known as meridional circulation. In this form of convection, or vertical air movement, heated equatorial air rises and travels through the upper atmosphere toward higher latitudes. Air just above the equator heads toward the North Pole, and air just below the equator moves southward. This air movement fills the gap created where increased air pressure pushes down cold air. The ,cold air moves along the surface back toward the equator, replacing the air masses that rise there. Another influence on atmospheric. circulation is the Coriolis force. Because of the Earth's rotation, large-scale wind currents move in the direction of this axial spin around low-pressure areas. Wind rotates counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere. just as the Earth's rotation affects airflow, so too does its surface. In the phenomenon of orographic lifting, elevated topographic features such as mountain ranges lift air as it moves up their surface.

Circulation responses to regional aerosol climate forcing in summer over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Guoxing; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Chen, Jen-Ping

2018-05-01

For East Asia, circulation responses to anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing dominate aerosol-precipitation interactions. To gain insights, this study analyzed CESM simulated circulation changes related to the `north drought and south flood' pattern caused by aerosol increases between two cases. One case was driven by the year-1850 global emission inventory, whereas the other used identical emissions for all regions except East Asia where anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursors of the year-2000 were imposed. Results show that the cooling caused by increased aerosols, which peaks at the middle latitudes, induces two intervened anomalous circulations in the troposphere. Near the surface, the increased land pressure weakens the southerlies and reduces the moisture transport for the entire eastern China. Meanwhile, in the free troposphere, the anomalous circulation exhibits remarkable meridional variations. While convergence occurs over 25°-45°N which partially compensates the decrease of moisture transport from lower levels, divergence develops over regions to the north which enhances the moisture deficiency. In addition, the southward shift of the jet stream stimulates anomalous rising and sinking motions over the south and north of 32°N. The combination of these changes leads to precipitation increase in the Yangtze River Valley but decrease over North China.

Partitioning the effects of Global Warming on the Hydrological Cycle with Stable Isotopes in Water Vapor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dee, S. G.; Russell, J. M.; Nusbaumer, J. M.; Konecky, B. L.; Buenning, N. H.; Lee, J. E.; Noone, D.

2016-12-01

General circulation models (GCMs) suggest that much of the global hydrological cycle's response to anthropogenic warming will be caused by increased lower-tropospheric water vapor concentrations and associated feedbacks. However, fingerprinting changes in the global hydrological cycle due to anthropogenic warming remains challenging. Held and Soden (2006) predicted that as lower-tropospheric water vapor increases, atmospheric circulation will weaken as climate warms to maintain the surface energy budget. Unfortunately, the strength of this feedback and the fallout for other branches of the hydrological cycle is difficult to constrain in situ or with GCMs alone. We demonstrate the utility of stable hydrogen isotope ratios in atmospheric water vapor to quantitatively trace changes in atmospheric circulation and convective mass flux in a warming world. We compare water isotope-enabled GCM experiments for control (present-day) CO2 vs. high CO2(2x, 4x) atmospheres in two GCMs, IsoGSM and iCAM5. We evaluate changes in the distribution of water vapor, vertical velocity (omega), and the stream function between these experiments in order to identify spatial patterns of circulation change over the tropical Pacific (where vertical motion is strong) and map the δD of water vapor associated with atmospheric warming. We also probe the simulations to isolate isotopic signatures associated with water vapor residence time, precipitation efficiency, divergence, and cloud physics. We show that there are robust mechanisms that moisten the troposphere and weaken convective mass flux, and that these mechanisms can be tracked using the δD of water vapor. Further, we find that these responses are most pronounced in the upper troposphere. These findings provide a framework to develop new metrics for the detection of global warming impacts to the hydrological cycle. Further, currently available satellite missions measure δD in the atmospheric boundary layer, the free atmosphere, or the total column; our study suggests that more accurate upper troposphere measurements (above 500hPa) may be needed to detect changes in convective mass flux using water vapor isotope ratios.

The South Asian Monsoon and the Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meehl, Gerald A.

1997-08-01

A mechanism is described that involves the south Asian monsoon as an active part of the tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) described in previous studies. This mechanism depends on coupled land-atmosphere-ocean interactions in the Indian sector, large-scale atmospheric east-west circulations in the Tropics, convective heating anomalies over Africa and the Pacific, and tropical-midlatitude interactions in the Northern Hemisphere. A key element for the monsoon role in the TBO is land-sea or meridional tropospheric temperature contrast, with area-averaged surface temperature anomalies over south Asia that are able to persist on a 1-yr timescale without the heat storage characteristics that contribute to this memory mechanism in the ocean. Results from a global coupled general circulation model show that soil moisture anomalies contribute to land-surface temperature anomalies (through latent heat flux anomalies) for only one season after the summer monsoon. A global atmospheric GCM in perpetual January mode is run with observed SSTs with specified convective heating anomalies to demonstrate that convective heating anomalies elsewhere in the Tropics associated with the coupled ocean-atmosphere biennial mechanism can contribute to altering seasonal midlatitude circulation. These changes in the midlatitude longwave pattern, forced by a combination of tropical convective heating anomalies over East Africa, Southeast Asia, and the western Pacific (in association with SST anomalies), are then able to maintain temperature anomalies over south Asia via advection through winter and spring to set up the land-sea meridional tropospheric temperature contrast for the subsequent monsoon. The role of the Indian Ocean, then, is to provide a moisture source and a low-amplitude coupled response component for meridional temperature contrast to help drive the south Asian monsoon. The role of the Pacific is to produce shifts in regionally coupled convection-SST anomalies. These regions are tied together and mutually interact via the large-scale east-west circulation in the atmosphere and contribute to altering midlatitude circulations as well. The coupled model results, and experiments with an atmospheric GCM that includes specified convective heating anomalies, suggest that the influence of south Asian snow cover in the monsoon is not a driving force by itself, but is symptomatic of the larger-scale shift in the midlatitude longwave pattern associated with tropical SST and convective heating anomalies.

Salinity Remote Sensing and the Study of the Global Water Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lagerloef, G. S. E.; LeVine, David M.; Chao, Y.; Colomb, F. Raul; Font, J.

2007-01-01

The SMOS and AquariusISAC-D satellite missions will begin a new era to map the global sea surface salinity (SSS) field and its variability from space within the next twothree years. They will provide critical data needed to study the interactions between the ocean circulation, global water cycle and climate. Key scientific issues to address are (1) mapping large expanses of the ocean where conventional SSS data do not yet exist, (2) understanding the seasonal and interannual SSS variations and the link to precipitation, evaporation and sea-ice patterns, (3) links between SSS and variations in the oceanic overturning circulation, (4) air-sea coupling processes in the tropics that influence El Nino, and (4) closing the marine freshwater budget. There is a growing body of oceanographic evidence in the form of salinity trends that portend significant changes in the hydrologic cycle. Over the past several decades, highlatitude oceans have become fresher while the subtropical oceans have become saltier. This change is slowly spreading into the subsurface ocean layers and may be affecting the strength of the ocean's therrnohaline overturning circulation. Salinity is directly linked to the ocean dynamics through the density distribution, and provides an important signature of the global water cycle. The distribution and variation of oceanic salinity is therefore attracting increasing scientific attention due to the relationship to the global water cycle and its influence on circulation, mixing, and climate processes. The oceans dominate the water cycle by providing 86% of global surface evaporation (E) and receiving 78% of global precipitation (P). Regional differences in E-P, land runoff, and the melting or freezing of ice affect the salinity of surface water. Direct observations of E-P over the ocean have large uncertainty, with discrepancies between the various state-of-the-art precipitation analyses of a factor of two or more in many regions. Quantifying the climatic influence of the oceanic water cycle requires more accurately resolving the net air-sea water flux. Measuring global SSS trends on seasonal to interannual timescales by satellite is fundamental to this problem because the SSS trends represent detectable time-integrated signals of the variable marine hydrological cycle. Satellite measurements, coupled with an array of in situ observations, will provide global synoptic SSS fields for the first time history. These data will provide a strong constraint on climate models and data assimilation efforts, which must properly represent the freshwater budget in terms of E-P, ocean advection and surface layer mixing in order to accurately simulate the true ocean state. The SSS fields will allow us to quantify the covariability between the SSS and the strong seasonal E-P cycle in the tropics and high latitudes. Field measurement campaigns to exploit satellite and in situ measurements to close the seasonal E-P cycle over an ocean region are being considered. Lastly the satellite systems will monitor and trace the large long-lived SSS anomalies from year to year that have the potential to influence El Nino and the large scale ocean circulation.

Simulating phenological shifts in French temperate forests under two climatic change scenarios and four driving global circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebourgeois, François; Pierrat, Jean-Claude; Perez, Vincent; Piedallu, Christian; Cecchini, Sébastien; Ulrich, Erwin

2010-09-01

After modeling the large-scale climate response patterns of leaf unfolding, leaf coloring and growing season length of evergreen and deciduous French temperate trees, we predicted the effects of eight future climate scenarios on phenological events. We used the ground observations from 103 temperate forests (10 species and 3,708 trees) from the French Renecofor Network and for the period 1997-2006. We applied RandomForest algorithms to predict phenological events from climatic and ecological variables. With the resulting models, we drew maps of phenological events throughout France under present climate and under two climatic change scenarios (A2, B2) and four global circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM2, CSIRO2 and PCM). We compared current observations and predicted values for the periods 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. On average, spring development of oaks precedes that of beech, which precedes that of conifers. Annual cycles in budburst and leaf coloring are highly correlated with January, March-April and October-November weather conditions through temperature, global solar radiation or potential evapotranspiration depending on species. At the end of the twenty-first century, each model predicts earlier budburst (mean: 7 days) and later leaf coloring (mean: 13 days) leading to an average increase in the growing season of about 20 days (for oaks and beech stands). The A2-HadCM3 hypothesis leads to an increase of up to 30 days in many areas. As a consequence of higher predicted warming during autumn than during winter or spring, shifts in leaf coloring dates appear greater than trends in leaf unfolding. At a regional scale, highly differing climatic response patterns were observed.

Global warming and climate forcing by recent albedo changes on Mars

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fenton, L.K.; Geissler, P.E.; Haberle, R.M.

2007-01-01

For hundreds of years, scientists have tracked the changing appearance of Mars, first by hand drawings and later by photographs. Because of this historical record, many classical albedo patterns have long been known to shift in appearance over time. Decadal variations of the martian surface albedo are generally attributed to removal and deposition of small amounts of relatively bright dust on the surface. Large swaths of the surface (up to 56 million km2) have been observed to darken or brighten by 10 per cent or more. It is unknown, however, how these albedo changes affect wind circulation, dust transport and the feedback between these processes and the martian climate. Here we present predictions from a Mars general circulation model, indicating that the observed interannual albedo alterations strongly influence the martian environment. Results indicate enhanced wind stress in recently darkened areas and decreased wind stress in brightened areas, producing a positive feedback system in which the albedo changes strengthen the winds that generate the changes. The simulations also predict a net annual global warming of surface air temperatures by ???0.65 K, enhancing dust lifting by increasing the likelihood of dust devil generation. The increase in global dust lifting by both wind stress and dust devils may affect the mechanisms that trigger large dust storm initiation, a poorly understood phenomenon, unique to Mars. In addition, predicted increases in summertime air temperatures at high southern latitudes would contribute to the rapid and steady scarp retreat that has been observed in the south polar residual ice for the past four Mars years. Our results suggest that documented albedo changes affect recent climate change and large-scale weather patterns on Mars, and thus albedo variations are a necessary component of future atmospheric and climate studies. ??2007 Nature Publishing Group.

Global warming and climate forcing by recent albedo changes on Mars.

PubMed

Fenton, Lori K; Geissler, Paul E; Haberle, Robert M

2007-04-05

For hundreds of years, scientists have tracked the changing appearance of Mars, first by hand drawings and later by photographs. Because of this historical record, many classical albedo patterns have long been known to shift in appearance over time. Decadal variations of the martian surface albedo are generally attributed to removal and deposition of small amounts of relatively bright dust on the surface. Large swaths of the surface (up to 56 million km2) have been observed to darken or brighten by 10 per cent or more. It is unknown, however, how these albedo changes affect wind circulation, dust transport and the feedback between these processes and the martian climate. Here we present predictions from a Mars general circulation model, indicating that the observed interannual albedo alterations strongly influence the martian environment. Results indicate enhanced wind stress in recently darkened areas and decreased wind stress in brightened areas, producing a positive feedback system in which the albedo changes strengthen the winds that generate the changes. The simulations also predict a net annual global warming of surface air temperatures by approximately 0.65 K, enhancing dust lifting by increasing the likelihood of dust devil generation. The increase in global dust lifting by both wind stress and dust devils may affect the mechanisms that trigger large dust storm initiation, a poorly understood phenomenon, unique to Mars. In addition, predicted increases in summertime air temperatures at high southern latitudes would contribute to the rapid and steady scarp retreat that has been observed in the south polar residual ice for the past four Mars years. Our results suggest that documented albedo changes affect recent climate change and large-scale weather patterns on Mars, and thus albedo variations are a necessary component of future atmospheric and climate studies.

Simulating phenological shifts in French temperate forests under two climatic change scenarios and four driving global circulation models.

PubMed

Lebourgeois, François; Pierrat, Jean-Claude; Perez, Vincent; Piedallu, Christian; Cecchini, Sébastien; Ulrich, Erwin

2010-09-01

After modeling the large-scale climate response patterns of leaf unfolding, leaf coloring and growing season length of evergreen and deciduous French temperate trees, we predicted the effects of eight future climate scenarios on phenological events. We used the ground observations from 103 temperate forests (10 species and 3,708 trees) from the French Renecofor Network and for the period 1997-2006. We applied RandomForest algorithms to predict phenological events from climatic and ecological variables. With the resulting models, we drew maps of phenological events throughout France under present climate and under two climatic change scenarios (A2, B2) and four global circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM2, CSIRO2 and PCM). We compared current observations and predicted values for the periods 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. On average, spring development of oaks precedes that of beech, which precedes that of conifers. Annual cycles in budburst and leaf coloring are highly correlated with January, March-April and October-November weather conditions through temperature, global solar radiation or potential evapotranspiration depending on species. At the end of the twenty-first century, each model predicts earlier budburst (mean: 7 days) and later leaf coloring (mean: 13 days) leading to an average increase in the growing season of about 20 days (for oaks and beech stands). The A2-HadCM3 hypothesis leads to an increase of up to 30 days in many areas. As a consequence of higher predicted warming during autumn than during winter or spring, shifts in leaf coloring dates appear greater than trends in leaf unfolding. At a regional scale, highly differing climatic response patterns were observed.

Global-Local Interactions Modulate Tropical Moisture Exports to the Ohio River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doss-Gollin, J.; Farnham, D. J.; Lall, U.

2016-12-01

Regional-scale extreme rainfall and flooding are temporally and spatially associated with the occurrence of tropical moisture exports (TMEs) in the Ohio River Basin (ORB). TMEs are related to but not synonymous with atmospheric rivers, which refer to specific filiamentary organizational processes. TMEs to the ORB may be driven by strong, persistent ridging over the Eastern United States and troughing over the Central United States, creating favorable conditions for southerly flow and moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. However, the strong inter-annual variation in TME activity over the ORB suggests dependence on global-scale features of the atmospheric circulation. We suggest that this synoptic dipole pattern may be viewed as the passage of one or more high-wavenumber, transient Rossby waves. We build a multi-level hierarchical Bayesian model in which the probability distribution of TME entering the ORB is a function of the phase and amplitude of the traveling waves. In turn, the joint distribution of the phase and amplitude of this wave is modulated by hemispheric-scale features of the atmospheric and oceanic circulation, and the amplitude and synchronization of quasi-stationary Rossby waves with wavenumber 1-4. Our approach bridges information about different features of the atmospheric circulation which inform the predictability of TME at multiple time scales and develops existing understanding of the atmospheric drivers of TMEs beyond existing composite and EOF studies.

Global Migration Dynamics Underlie Evolution and Persistence of Human Influenza A (H3N2)

PubMed Central

Bedford, Trevor; Cobey, Sarah; Beerli, Peter; Pascual, Mercedes

2010-01-01

The global migration patterns of influenza viruses have profound implications for the evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics of the disease. We developed a novel approach to reconstruct the genetic history of human influenza A (H3N2) collected worldwide over 1998 to 2009 and used it to infer the global network of influenza transmission. Consistent with previous models, we find that China and Southeast Asia lie at the center of this global network. However, we also find that strains of influenza circulate outside of Asia for multiple seasons, persisting through dynamic migration between northern and southern regions. The USA acts as the primary hub of temperate transmission and, together with China and Southeast Asia, forms the trunk of influenza's evolutionary tree. These findings suggest that antiviral use outside of China and Southeast Asia may lead to the evolution of long-term local and potentially global antiviral resistance. Our results might also aid the design of surveillance efforts and of vaccines better tailored to different geographic regions. PMID:20523898

The role of atmospheric diagnosis and Big Data science in improving hydroclimatic extreme prediction and the merits of climate informed prediction for future water resources management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Mengqian; Lall, Upmanu

2017-04-01

The threats that hydroclimatic extremes pose to sustainable development, safety and operation of infrastructure are both severe and growing. Recent heavy precipitation triggered flood events in many regions and increasing frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation suggested by various climate projections highlight the importance of understanding the associated hydrometeorological patterns and space-time variability of such extreme events, and developing a new approach to improve predictability with a better estimation of uncertainty. This clear objective requires the optimal utility of Big Data analytics on multi-source datasets to extract informative predictors from the complex ocean-atmosphere coupled system and develop a statistical and physical based framework. The proposed presentation includes the essence of our selected works in the past two years, as part of our Global Floods Initiatives. Our approach for an improved extreme prediction begins with a better understanding of the associated atmospheric circulation patterns, under the influence and regulation of slowly changing oceanic boundary conditions [Lu et al., 2013, 2016a; Lu and Lall, 2016]. The study of the associated atmospheric circulation pattern and the regulation of teleconnected climate signals adopted data science techniques and statistical modeling recognizing the nonstationarity and nonlinearity of the system, as the underlying statistical assumptions of the classical extreme value frequency analysis are challenged in hydroclimatic studies. There are two main factors that are considered important for understanding how future flood risk will change. One is the consideration of moisture holding capacity as a function of temperature, as suggested by Clausius-Clapeyron equation. The other is the strength of the convergence or convection associated with extreme precipitation. As convergence or convection gets stronger, rain rates can be expected to increase if the moisture is available. For extreme rainfall events in the mid-latitudes, tropical moisture sources related to strong convection from equatorial oceans were identified together with atmospheric circulation conditions that in favor of consistent transport and convergence of moisture [Lu et al., 2013; Lu and Lall, 2016]. Further, [Lu et al., 2016a] linked the influence of the slowly changing oceanic boundary conditions with the development of the global atmospheric circulation and showed that (1) strong convection over the oceans and the atmospheric moisture transport and flow convergence indicated by atmospheric pressure fields can determine where and when extreme precipitation occurs; and (2) the time-lagged spatial relationship between teleconnected oceanic signals and synoptic atmospheric circulations can improve the predictability of extreme precipitation globally over the next 30 days; such a forecast would be potentially very useful for flood preparation at a lead time that is well beyond the lead time of meteorological forecasts, and it corresponds to a gap in the predictability between quantitative precipitation forecasts and seasonal-to-interannual climate prediction. Lastly, we will demonstrate our most recent results showing the merits of utilizing climate informed forecasts for water resources management, considering irrigation supply, hydropower and flood control, with marked-based financial instruments [Lu et al., 2016b].

Using Atmospheric Circulation Patterns to Detect and Attribute Changes in the Risk of Extreme Climate Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Horton, D. E.; Singh, D.; Swain, D. L.; Touma, D. E.; Mankin, J. S.

2015-12-01

Because of the high cost of extreme events and the growing evidence that global warming is likely to alter the statistical distribution of climate variables, detection and attribution of changes in the probability of extreme climate events has become a pressing topic for the scientific community, elected officials, and the public. While most of the emphasis has thus far focused on analyzing the climate variable of interest (most often temperature or precipitation, but also flooding and drought), there is an emerging emphasis on applying detection and attribution analysis techniques to the underlying physical causes of individual extreme events. This approach is promising in part because the underlying physical causes (such as atmospheric circulation patterns) can in some cases be more accurately represented in climate models than the more proximal climate variable (such as precipitation). In addition, and more scientifically critical, is the fact that the most extreme events result from a rare combination of interacting causes, often referred to as "ingredients". Rare events will therefore always have a strong influence of "natural" variability. Analyzing the underlying physical mechanisms can therefore help to test whether there have been changes in the probability of the constituent conditions of an individual event, or whether the co-occurrence of causal conditions cannot be distinguished from random chance. This presentation will review approaches to applying detection/attribution analysis to the underlying physical causes of extreme events (including both "thermodynamic" and "dynamic" causes), and provide a number of case studies, including the role of frequency of atmospheric circulation patterns in the probability of hot, cold, wet and dry events.

The influence of tropical heating displacements on the extratropical climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hou, Arthur Y.

1993-01-01

The hypothesis is advanced that a latitudinal shift in the tropical convective heating pattern can significantly alter temperatures in the extratropics. Results of a simplified general circulation model (GCM) show that the shift of a prescribed tropical heating toward the summer pole, on time scales longer than a few weeks, leads to a more intense cross-equatorial 'winter' Hadley circulation, enhanced upper-level tropical easterlies, and a slightly stronger subtropical winter jet, accompanied by warming at the winter middle and high latitudes as a result of increased dynamical heating. The indications are that there is a robust connection between the net dynamic heating in the extratropics and the implied changes in the subtropical wind shear resulting from adjustments in the Hadley circulation associated with convective heating displacements in the tropics. The implications are that (1) the low-frequency temporal variability in the Hadley circulation may play an important role in modulating wave transport in the winter extratropics, (2) the global climate may be sensitive to those processes that control deep cumulus convection in the tropics, and (3) systematic temperature biases in GCMs may be reduced by improving the tropical rainfall simulation.

Atmospheric circulation patterns and spatial climatic variations in Beringia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mock, Cary J.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Anderson, Patricia M.

1998-08-01

Analyses of more than 40 years of climatic data reveal intriguing spatial variations in climatic patterns for Beringia (North-eastern Siberia and Alaska), aiding the understanding of the hierarchy of climatic controls that operate at different spatial scales within the Arctic. A synoptic climatology, using a subjective classification methodology on January and July sea level pressure, and July 500 hPa height anomaly patterns, identified 13 major atmospheric circulation patterns (26 pairs consisting of 13 synoptic/temperature and 13 synoptic/precipitation comparisons) that occur over Beringia. Composite anomaly maps of circulation, temperature, and precipitation described the spatial variability of surface climatic responses to circulation. Results indicate that nine synoptic pairs yield homogeneous surface climatic anomaly patterns throughout most of Beringia. However, many of the surface climatic responses illustrate heterogeneous anomaly patterns as a result of variations in circulation controls, such as troughing over East Asia and the Pacific subtropical high superimposed over topography, with small shifts in atmospheric circulation dramatically altering spatial variations of anomaly patterns. Distinctive contrasts in climatic responses, as suggested from ten synoptic pairs, are clearly evident for Western Beringia versus Eastern Beringia. These results offer important implications for scholars interested in assessing late Quaternary climatic change in the region from interannual to millennial timescales.

Surface circulation in the Strait of Gibraltar: a comparison study between HF radar and high resolution model data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soto-Navarro, Javier; Lorente, Pablo; Álvarez-Fanjul, Enrique; Ruiz-Gil de la Serna, M. Isabel

2015-04-01

Surface currents from the HF radar system deployed by Puertos del Estado (PdE) at the Strait of Gibraltar and an operational high resolution configuration of the MIT global circulation model, implemented in the strait area in the frame of the SAMPA project, have been analyzed and compared in the period February 2013 - September 2014. The comparison have been carried out in the time and frequency domains, by statistical a geophysical (tide ellipses, wind forcing, EOF) methods. Results show good agreement between both current fields in the strait axis, with correlation around 0.6 (reaching 0.9 in the low frequency band). Higher discrepancies are found in the boundaries of the domain, due to the differences in the meridional components, likely related to the sparser and less accurate radar measurements in these areas. Rotary spectral analysis show a very good agreement between both systems, which is reflected in a very similar and realistic representation of the main tide constituents (M2, S2 and K1). The wind forced circulation pattern, of special interest in the mouth of the Bay of Algeciras, is also precisely represented by radar and model. Finally, the spatial patterns of the first four EOF modes of both fields are rather close, reinforcing the previous results. As conclusion, the analysis points out the proper representation of the surface circulation of the area performed by the PdE HF radar system and the SAMPA model. However, weak and strong points are found in both, stressing the importance of having two complementary tools in the area.

The Spatiotemporal Structure of 20th Century Climate Variations in Observations and Reanalyses. Part 2; Pacific Pan-Decadal Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Junye; DelGenio, Anthony D.; Carlson, Barbara E.; Bosilovich, Michael G.

2007-01-01

The dominant interannual El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) and the short length of climate observation records make it difficult to study long-term climate variations in the spatiotemporal domain. Based on the fact that the ENS0 signal spreads to remote regions and induces delayed climate variation through atmospheric teleconnections, we develop an ENSO-removal method through which the ENS0 signal can be approximately removed at the grid box level from the spatiotemporal field of a climate parameter. After this signal is removed, long-term climate variations, namely, the global warming trend (GW) and the Pacific pan-decadal variability (PDV), are isolated at middle and low latitudes in the climate parameter fields from observed and reanalyses datasets. In this study, we show that one of several PDV interdecadal regime shifts occurred during the 1990s. This significant change in the Pacific basin is comparable but opposite in phase to the 1976 climate regime shift, which results persisting warming in the central-eastern Pacific, and cooling in the North and South Pacific. The 1990s PDV regime shift is consistent with observed changes in ocean biosphere and ocean circulation. A comprehensive picture of PDV as manifested in the troposphere and at the surface is described. In general, the PDV spatial patterns in different parameter fields share some similarities with the patterns associated with ENSO, but important differences exist. First, the PDV atmospheric circulation pattern is shifted westward by about 20deg and its zonal extent is limited to approx.60deg compared to approx.110deg for ENS0 pattern. The westward shift of the PDV wave train produces a different, more west-east oriented, North American teleconnection pattern. The lack of a strong PDV surface temperature (ST) signal in the western equatorial Pacific and the relatively strong ST signal in the subtropical regions are consistent with an atmospheric overturning circulation response that differs from the one associated with ENSO.

Hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region and its relationships with large-scale climate anomaly patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rimbu, Norel; Ionita, Monica; Swierczynski, Tina; Brauer, Achim; Kämpf, Lucas; Czymzik, Markus

2017-04-01

Flood triggered detrital layers in varved sediments of Lake Mondsee, located at the northern fringe of the European Alps (47°48'N,13°23'E), provide an important archive of regional hydroclimatic variability during the mid- to late Holocene. To improve the interpretation of the flood layer record in terms of large-scale climate variability, we investigate the relationships between observational hydrological records from the region, like the Mondsee lake level, the runoff of the lake's main inflow Griesler Ache, with observed precipitation and global climate patterns. The lake level shows a strong positive linear trend during the observational period in all seasons. Additionally, lake level presents important interannual to multidecadal variations. These variations are associated with distinct seasonal atmospheric circulation patterns. A pronounced anomalous anticyclonic center over the Iberian Peninsula is associated with high lake levels values during winter. This center moves southwestward during spring, summer and autumn. In the same time, a cyclonic anomaly center is recorded over central and western Europe. This anomalous circulation extends southwestward from winter to autumn. Similar atmospheric circulation patterns are associated with river runoff and precipitation variability from the region. High lake levels are associated with positive local precipitation anomalies in all seasons as well as with negative local temperature anomalies during spring, summer and autumn. A correlation analysis reveals that lake level, runoff and precipitation variability is related to large-scale sea surface temperature anomaly patterns in all seasons suggesting a possible impact of large-scale climatic modes, like the North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region. The results presented in this study can be used for a more robust interpretation of the long flood layer record from Lake Mondsee sediments in terms of regional and large-scale climate variability during the past.

Global Terrestrial Patterns of Precipitation Change under a Warming Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, R.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial global warming has occurred over the last century, especially since the 1950s. This study analyzes changes in global terrestrial precipitation patterns in period of 1950-2010 in an attempt to identify the influence of climate change on precipitation. The results indicate that there is no significant change globally or across latitude bands; nevertheless significant regional differences in precipitation changes are identified. The lack of a change in precipitation levels, or precipitation balance, at both the global and latitudinal band scales is a result of offsetting by opposing precipitation changes at the regional scales. Clear opposing precipitation change patterns appeared in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude band (NHM). Significant increases in precipitation were distributed throughout the western extent of NHM, including the North America, Europe and west of Central Asia, while decreases were observed over the eastern extent, namely, East Asia. A dynamical adjustment methodology was applied to precipitation data, which could identify the roles of atmospheric circulation (dynamic) and the residual (thermodynamic) forcing played in generating the opposing regional precipitation changes in the NHM. Distinct different changes of dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation were found in different regions. Increased precipitation in North America and southern Europe were caused by thermodynamic precipitation, while the dynamic precipitation presented decreased trend due to the positive sea level pressure trend. However, in northern Europe and west of Central Asia, dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation both contributed to the increased precipitation, but thermodynamic precipitation had larger amplitude. In East Asia, the decreased precipitation was a result of simultaneous decrease in dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation.

The Use of Print Materials in the Internet Age: A Comparative Study of Academic Library Circulation Patterns

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haley, Daniel Joseph

2010-01-01

The circulation records from 1997/98 to 2007/08 for UCLA and from 2000/01 to 2007/08 for Pasadena City College (PCC) were analyzed to examine patterns in the use of print materials during a period of increasingly available online digital information resources. The analysis included examinations of longitudinal circulation patterns broken down by…

The ENSO Effect on the Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Global Lightning Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chronis, Themis G.; Goodman, Steven J.; Cecil, Dan; Buechler, Dennis; Pittman, Jasna; Robertson, Franklin R.; Blakeslee, Richard J.

2007-01-01

The recently reprocessed (1997-2006) OTD/LIS database is used to investigate the global lightning climatology in response to the ENSO cycle. A linear correlation map between lightning anomalies and ENSO (NINO3.4) identifies areas that generally follow patterns similar to precipitation anomalies. We also observed areas where significant lightning/ENSO correlations are found and are not accompanied of significant precipitation/ENSO correlations. An extreme case of the strong decoupling between lightning and precipitation is observed over the Indonesian peninsula (Sumatra) where positive lightning/NINO3.4 correlations are collocated with negative precipitation/NINO3.4 correlations. Evidence of linear relationships between the spatial extent of thunderstorm distribution and the respective NINO3.4 magnitude are presented for different regions on the Earth. Strong coupling is found over areas remote to the main ENSO axis of influence and both during warm and cold ENSO phases. Most of the resulted relationships agree with the tendencies of precipitation related to ENSO empirical maps or documented teleconnection patterns. Over the Australian continent, opposite behavior in terms of thunderstorm activity is noted for warm ENSO phases with NINO3.4 magnitudes with NINO3.4>+l.08 and 0

Vortex circulation and polarity patterns in closely packed cap arrays

DOE PAGES

Streubel, Robert; Kronast, Florian; Reiche, Christopher F.; ...

2016-01-25

For this work, we studied curvature-driven modifications to the magnetostatic coupling of vortex circulation and polarity in soft-magnetic closely packed cap arrays. A phase diagram for the magnetic remanent/transition states at room temperature as a function of diameter and thickness was assembled. For specimens with vortex remanent state (40 nm-thick Permalloy on 330 nm spherical nanoparticles), both vortex circulation and polarity were visualized. Intercap coupling upon vortex nucleation leads to the formation of vortex circulation patterns in closely packed arrays. The remanent circulation pattern can be tailored choosing the direction of the applied magnetic field with respect to the symmetrymore » axis of the hexagonal array. An even and random distribution of vortex polarity indicates the absence of any circulation-polarity coupling.« less

Impact of a permanent El Niño (El Padre) and Indian Ocean Dipole in warm Pliocene climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shukla, Sonali P.; Chandler, Mark A.; Jonas, Jeff; Sohl, Linda E.; Mankoff, Ken; Dowsett, Harry J.

2009-01-01

 Pliocene sea surface temperature data, as well as terrestrial precipitation and temperature proxies, indicate warmer than modern conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific and imply permanent El Niño–like conditions with impacts similar to those of the 1997/1998 El Niño event. Here we use a general circulation model to examine the global-scale effects that result from imposing warm tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in both modern and Pliocene simulations. Observed SSTs from the 1997/1998 El Niño event were used for the anomalies and incorporate Pacific warming as well as a prominent Indian Ocean Dipole event. Both the permanent El Niño (also called El Padre) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are necessary to reproduce temperature and precipitation patterns consistent with the global distribution of Pliocene proxy data. These patterns may result from the poleward propagation of planetary waves from the strong convection centers associated with the El Niño and IOD.

The Role of Forcing and Internal Dynamics in explaining the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly'

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goossee, Hugues; Crespin, Elisabeth; Dubinkina, Svetlana; Loutre, Marie-France; Mann, Michael E.; Renssen, Hans; Shindell, Drew

2012-01-01

Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950-1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm period, we use model simulations constrained by data assimilation establishing the spatial pattern of temperature changes that is most consistent with forcing estimates, model physics and the empirical information contained in paleoclimate proxy records. These numerical experiments demonstrate that the reconstructed spatial temperature pattern of the MCA can be explained by a simple thermodynamical response of the climate system to relatively weak changes in radiative forcing combined with a modification of the atmospheric circulation, displaying some similarities with the positive phase of the so-called Arctic Oscillation, and with northward shifts in the position of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio currents. The mechanisms underlying the MCA are thus quite different from anthropogenic mechanisms responsible for modern global warming.

CISOCUR - Hydrodynamic circulation in the Curonian Lagoon inferred through stable isotope measurements and numerical modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Umgiesser, Georg; Razinkovas-Baziukas, Arturas; Barisevičiūtė, Ruta; Baziukė, Dalia; Ertürk, Ali; Gasiūnaitė, Jovita; Gulbinskas, Saulius; Lubienė, Irma; Maračkinaite, Jurgita; Petkuvienė, Jolita; Pilkaitytė, Renata; Ruginis, Tomas; Zemlys, Petras; Žilius, Mindaugas

2013-04-01

The spatial pattern of the hydrodynamic circulation of the Curonian lagoon, the largest European coastal lagoon, is still little understood. In absence of automatic current registration data all the existing models relied mostly on such data as water levels leaving high level of uncertainty. Here we present CISOCUR, a new project financed by the European Social Fund under the Global Grant measure. The project applies a new methodology that uses the carbon stable isotope (SI) ratio of C12 and C13 that characterize different water sources entering the lagoon and may be altered by internal kinetic processes. Through the tracing of these isotope ratios different water masses can be identified. This gives the possibility to validate several hypotheses of water circulation and validate hydrodynamic models. In particular it will be possible to 1) trace water masses entering the lagoon through the Nemunas and the Klaipeda strait; 2) test the hypothesis of sediment transport mechanisms inside the lagoon; 3) evaluate the importance of physical forcing on the lagoon circulation. The use of a hydrodynamic finite element model, coupled with the SI method, will allow for a realistic description of the transport processes inside the Curonian lagoon. So the main research goal is to apply the stable isotope tracers and a finite element model to determine the circulation patterns in the Curonian lagoon. Overall, the project will develop according to 4 main phases: 1) A pilot study to measure the isotope composition of different carbon compounds (dissolved and suspended) in different water bodies that feed water into the central lagoon. Through this pilot study the optimal study sites for the seasonal campaign will be identified as well. 2) Seasonal field campaigns in the monitoring stations identified in phase 1 to measure the carbon isotope ratio. 3) Development of a model that describes the kinetics of carbon isotopes and its transformation. 4) Application of a hydrodynamic model that includes the kinetic model and uses the data in order to describe the overall circulation patterns in the Curonian lagoon. Project activities will be carried out as common co-ordinated effort of field an SI group and the modeling group that will have to calibrate the hydrodynamic model. In this way the expertise of different groups (physicists and oceanographers) will result in added value, providing the best available expertise along the eastern coast of the Baltic.

Spatial stabilization and intensification of moistening and drying rate patterns under future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavaillaz, Y.; Joussaume, S.; Bony, S.; Braconnot, P.

2015-12-01

Most climate studies characterize the future climate change by considering the evolution between a fixed current baseline and the future. It emphasizes an increase of future precipitation changes with global warming. Here we use an alternative approach that considers rate of change indicators related to precipitation using projections of an ensemble of General Circulation Models. The rate is defined by the difference between two subsequent 20-year periods. This approach can be relevant to impacts affecting upcoming generations, and to their continuous adaptation towards a changing target. Under the strongest emission pathway (RCP8.5), moistening and drying rates strongly increase at the global scale. As we move further over the twenty-first century, more and more regions exhibit substantial rates. These regions are modified over time due to spatial variability of precipitation. However, we show that they tend to become more geographically stationary through the century, leading to persisting trends at several places over the globe. Whilst global warming is accelerating, this spatial stabilization is due to the decreasing relative influence of global circulation in precipitation changes compared to thermodynamic processes. In specific regions, the combination of intensification and persistence of such substantial rates should be considered in the framework of future impact studies (i.e. the Mediterranean Sea, Central America, South Asia and the Arctic). These trends are already visible in the current period, but could almost disappear if strong mitigation policies (RCP2.6) were quickly implemented.

Global patterns in endemism explained by past climatic change.

PubMed

Jansson, Roland

2003-03-22

I propose that global patterns in numbers of range-restricted endemic species are caused by variation in the amplitude of climatic change occurring on time-scales of 10-100 thousand years (Milankovitch oscillations). The smaller the climatic shifts, the more probable it is that palaeoendemics survive and that diverging gene pools persist without going extinct or merging, favouring the evolution of neoendemics. Using the change in mean annual temperature since the last glacial maximum, estimated from global circulation models, I show that the higher the temperature change in an area, the fewer endemic species of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and vascular plants it harbours. This relationship was robust to variation in area (for areas greater than 10(4) km2), latitudinal position, extent of former glaciation and whether or not areas are oceanic islands. Past climatic change was a better predictor of endemism than annual temperature range in all phylads except amphibians, suggesting that Rapoport's rule (i.e. species range sizes increase with latitude) is best explained by the increase in the amplitude of climatic oscillations towards the poles. Globally, endemic-rich areas are predicted to warm less in response to greenhouse-gas emissions, but the predicted warming would cause many habitats to disappear regionally, leading to species extinctions.

Maritime Continent seasonal climate biases in AMIP experiments of the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toh, Ying Ying; Turner, Andrew G.; Johnson, Stephanie J.; Holloway, Christopher E.

2018-02-01

The fidelity of 28 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models in simulating mean climate over the Maritime Continent in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) experiment is evaluated in this study. The performance of AMIP models varies greatly in reproducing seasonal mean climate and the seasonal cycle. The multi-model mean has better skill at reproducing the observed mean climate than the individual models. The spatial pattern of 850 hPa wind is better simulated than the precipitation in all four seasons. We found that model horizontal resolution is not a good indicator of model performance. Instead, a model's local Maritime Continent biases are somewhat related to its biases in the local Hadley circulation and global monsoon. The comparison with coupled models in CMIP5 shows that AMIP models generally performed better than coupled models in the simulation of the global monsoon and local Hadley circulation but less well at simulating the Maritime Continent annual cycle of precipitation. To characterize model systematic biases in the AMIP runs, we performed cluster analysis on Maritime Continent annual cycle precipitation. Our analysis resulted in two distinct clusters. Cluster I models are able to capture both the winter monsoon and summer monsoon shift, but they overestimate the precipitation; especially during the JJA and SON seasons. Cluster II models simulate weaker seasonal migration than observed, and the maximum rainfall position stays closer to the equator throughout the year. The tropics-wide properties of these clusters suggest a connection between the skill of simulating global properties of the monsoon circulation and the skill of simulating the regional scale of Maritime Continent precipitation.

Atmospheric Teleconnection over Eurasia Induced by Aerosol Radiative Forcing During Boreal Spring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Maeng-Ki; Lau, K. M.; Chin, Mian; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Sud, Y. C.; Walker, Greg K.

2005-01-01

The direct effects of aerosols on global and regional climate during boreal spring are investigated based on simulations using the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM) with Microphyics of clouds in Relaxed Arakawa Schubert Scheme (McRAS). The aerosol loading are prescribed from three-dimensional monthly distribution of tropospheric aerosols viz., sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, soil dust, and sea salt from output of the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART). The aerosol extinction coefficient, single scattering albedo, and asymmetric factor are computed as wavelength-dependent radiative forcing in the radiative transfer scheme of the fvGCM, and as a function of the aerosol loading and ambient relative humidity. We find that anomalous atmospheric heat sources induced by absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) excites a planetary scale teleconnection pattern in sea level pressure, temperature and geopotential height spanning North Africa through Eurasia to the North Pacific. Surface cooling due to direct effects of aerosols is found in the vicinity and downstream of the aerosol source regions, i.e., South Asia, East Asia, and northern and western Africa. Additionally, atmospheric heating is found in regions with large loading of dust (over Northern Africa, and Middle East), and black carbon (over South-East Asia). Paradoxically, the most pronounced feature in aerosol-induced surface temperature is an east-west dipole anomaly with strong cooling over the Caspian Sea, and warming over central and northeastern Asia, where aerosol concentration are low. Analyses of circulation anomalies show that the dipole anomaly is a part of an atmospheric teleconnection driven by atmospheric heating anomalies induced by absorbing aerosols in the source regions, but the influence was conveyed globally through barotropic energy dispersion and sustained by feedback processes associated with the regional circulations.

Global Observations and Understanding of the General Circulation of the Oceans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1984-01-01

The workshop was organized to: (1) assess the ability to obtain ocean data on a global scale that could profoundly change our understanding of the circulation; (2) identify the primary and secondary elements needed to conduct a World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE); (3) if the ability is achievable, to determine what the U.S. role in such an experiment should be; and (4) outline the steps necessary to assure that an appropriate program is conducted. The consensus of the workshop was that a World Ocean Circulation Experiment appears feasible, worthwhile, and timely. Participants did agree that such a program should have the overall goal of understanding the general circulation of the global ocean well enough to be able to predict ocean response and feedback to long-term changes in the atmosphere. The overall goal, specific objectives, and recommendations for next steps in planning such an experiment are included.

Vulnerability of island tropical montane cloud forests to climate change, with special reference to East Maui, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loope, Lloyd L.; Giambelluca, Thomas W.

1998-01-01

Island tropical montane cloud forests may be among the most sensitive of the world's ecosystems to global climate change. Measurements in and above a montane cloud forest on East Maui, Hawaii, document steep microclimatic gradients. Relatively small climate-driven shifts in patterns of atmospheric circulation are likely to trigger major local changes in rainfall, cloud cover, and humidity. Increased interannual variability in precipitation and hurricane incidence would provide additional stresses on island biota that are highly vulnerable to disturbance-related invasion of non-native species. Because of the exceptional sensitivity of these microclimates and forests to change, they may provide valuable ‘listening posts’ for detecting the onset of human-induced global climate change.

Recent Monitoring of Suspended Sediment Patterns along Louisiana's Coastal Zone using ER-2 based MAS Data and Terra Based MODIS Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moeller, Christopher C.; Gunshor, M. M.; Menzel, W. P.; Huh, O. K.; Walker, N. D.; Rouse, L. J.

2001-01-01

The University nf Wisconsin and Louisiana State University have teamed to study the forcing of winter season cold frontal wind systems on sediment distribution patterns and geomorphology in the Louisiana coastal zone. Wind systems associated with cold fronts have been shown to model coastal circulation and resuspend sediments along the micro tidal Louisiana coast (Roberts et at. 1987, Moeller et al. 1993). Remote sensing data is being used to map and track sediment distribution patterns for various wind conditions. Suspended sediment is a building material for coastal progradation and wetlands renewal, but also restricts access to marine nursery environments and impacts oyster bed health. Transferring a suspended sediment concentration (SSC) algorithm to EOS MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; Barnes et al. 1998) observations may enable estimates of SSC globally.

Maintenance of Summer Monsoon Circulations: A Planetary-Scale Perspective.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Tsing-Chang

2003-06-01

The monsoon circulation, which is generally considered to be driven by the landmass-ocean thermal contrast, like a gigantic land-sea breeze circulation, exhibits a phase reversal in its vertical structure; a monsoon high aloft over a continental thermal low is juxtaposed with a midoceanic trough underlaid by an oceanic anticyclone. This classic monsoon circulation model is well matched by the monsoon circulation depicted with the observational data prior to the First Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP) Global Experiment (FGGE). However, synthesizing findings of the global circulation portrayed with the post-FGGE data, it was found that some basic features of major monsoon circulations in Asia, North America, South America, and Australia differ from those of the classic monsoon circulation model. Therefore, a revision of the classic monsoon theory is suggested. With four different wave regimes selected to fit the horizontal dimensions of these monsoon circulations, basic features common to all four major monsoons are illustrated in terms of diagnostic analyses of the velocity potential maintenance equation (which relates diabatic heating and velocity potential) and the streamfunction budget (which links velocity potential and streamfunction) in these wave regimes. It is shown that a monsoon circulation is actually driven by the east-west differential heating and maintained dynamically by a balance between a vorticity source and advection. This dynamic balance is reflected by a spatial quadrature relationship between the monsoon divergent circulation and the monsoon high (low) at upper (lower) levels.

Can preferred atmospheric circulation patterns over the North-Atlantic-Eurasian region be associated with arctic sea ice loss?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crasemann, Berit; Handorf, Dörthe; Jaiser, Ralf; Dethloff, Klaus; Nakamura, Tetsu; Ukita, Jinro; Yamazaki, Koji

2017-12-01

In the framework of atmospheric circulation regimes, we study whether the recent Arctic sea ice loss and Arctic Amplification are associated with changes in the frequency of occurrence of preferred atmospheric circulation patterns during the extended winter season from December to March. To determine regimes we applied a cluster analysis to sea-level pressure fields from reanalysis data and output from an atmospheric general circulation model. The specific set up of the two analyzed model simulations for low and high ice conditions allows for attributing differences between the simulations to the prescribed sea ice changes only. The reanalysis data revealed two circulation patterns that occur more frequently for low Arctic sea ice conditions: a Scandinavian blocking in December and January and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern in February and March. An analysis of related patterns of synoptic-scale activity and 2 m temperatures provides a synoptic interpretation of the corresponding large-scale regimes. The regimes that occur more frequently for low sea ice conditions are resembled reasonably well by the model simulations. Based on those results we conclude that the detected changes in the frequency of occurrence of large-scale circulation patterns can be associated with changes in Arctic sea ice conditions.

European land CO2 sink influenced by NAO and East-Atlantic Pattern coupling

PubMed Central

Bastos, Ana; Janssens, Ivan A.; Gouveia, Célia M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Ciais, Philippe; Chevallier, Frédéric; Peñuelas, Josep; Rödenbeck, Christian; Piao, Shilong; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Running, Steven W.

2016-01-01

Large-scale climate patterns control variability in the global carbon sink. In Europe, the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences vegetation activity, however the East-Atlantic (EA) pattern is known to modulate NAO strength and location. Using observation-driven and modelled data sets, we show that multi-annual variability patterns of European Net Biome Productivity (NBP) are linked to anomalies in heat and water transport controlled by the NAO–EA interplay. Enhanced NBP occurs when NAO and EA are both in negative phase, associated with cool summers with wet soils which enhance photosynthesis. During anti-phase periods, NBP is reduced through distinct impacts of climate anomalies in photosynthesis and respiration. The predominance of anti-phase years in the early 2000s may explain the European-wide reduction of carbon uptake during this period, reported in previous studies. Results show that improving the capability of simulating atmospheric circulation patterns may better constrain regional carbon sink variability in coupled carbon-climate models. PMID:26777730

European land CO2 sink influenced by NAO and East-Atlantic Pattern coupling.

PubMed

Bastos, Ana; Janssens, Ivan A; Gouveia, Célia M; Trigo, Ricardo M; Ciais, Philippe; Chevallier, Frédéric; Peñuelas, Josep; Rödenbeck, Christian; Piao, Shilong; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Running, Steven W

2016-01-18

Large-scale climate patterns control variability in the global carbon sink. In Europe, the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences vegetation activity, however the East-Atlantic (EA) pattern is known to modulate NAO strength and location. Using observation-driven and modelled data sets, we show that multi-annual variability patterns of European Net Biome Productivity (NBP) are linked to anomalies in heat and water transport controlled by the NAO-EA interplay. Enhanced NBP occurs when NAO and EA are both in negative phase, associated with cool summers with wet soils which enhance photosynthesis. During anti-phase periods, NBP is reduced through distinct impacts of climate anomalies in photosynthesis and respiration. The predominance of anti-phase years in the early 2000s may explain the European-wide reduction of carbon uptake during this period, reported in previous studies. Results show that improving the capability of simulating atmospheric circulation patterns may better constrain regional carbon sink variability in coupled carbon-climate models.

Biogeographic patterns in ocean microbes emerge in a neutral agent-based model.

PubMed

Hellweger, Ferdi L; van Sebille, Erik; Fredrick, Neil D

2014-09-12

A key question in ecology and evolution is the relative role of natural selection and neutral evolution in producing biogeographic patterns. We quantify the role of neutral processes by simulating division, mutation, and death of 100,000 individual marine bacteria cells with full 1 million-base-pair genomes in a global surface ocean circulation model. The model is run for up to 100,000 years and output is analyzed using BLAST (Basic Local Alignment Search Tool) alignment and metagenomics fragment recruitment. Simulations show the production and maintenance of biogeographic patterns, characterized by distinct provinces subject to mixing and periodic takeovers by neighbors (coalescence), after which neutral evolution reestablishes the province and the patterns reorganize. The emergent patterns are substantial (e.g., down to 99.5% DNA identity between North and Central Pacific provinces) and suggest that microbes evolve faster than ocean currents can disperse them. This approach can also be used to explore environmental selection. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

The impact of resolution on the dynamics of the martian global atmosphere: Varying resolution studies with the MarsWRF GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toigo, Anthony D.; Lee, Christopher; Newman, Claire E.; Richardson, Mark I.

2012-09-01

We investigate the sensitivity of the circulation and thermal structure of the martian atmosphere to numerical model resolution in a general circulation model (GCM) using the martian implementation (MarsWRF) of the planetWRF atmospheric model. We provide a description of the MarsWRF GCM and use it to study the global atmosphere at horizontal resolutions from 7.5° × 9° to 0.5° × 0.5°, encompassing the range from standard Mars GCMs to global mesoscale modeling. We find that while most of the gross-scale features of the circulation (the rough location of jets, the qualitative thermal structure, and the major large-scale features of the surface level winds) are insensitive to horizontal resolution over this range, several major features of the circulation are sensitive in detail. The northern winter polar circulation shows the greatest sensitivity, showing a continuous transition from a smooth polar winter jet at low resolution, to a distinct vertically “split” jet as resolution increases. The separation of the lower and middle atmosphere polar jet occurs at roughly 10 Pa, with the split jet structure developing in concert with the intensification of meridional jets at roughly 10 Pa and above 0.1 Pa. These meridional jets appear to represent the separation of lower and middle atmosphere mean overturning circulations (with the former being consistent with the usual concept of the “Hadley cell”). Further, the transition in polar jet structure is more sensitive to changes in zonal than meridional horizontal resolution, suggesting that representation of small-scale wave-mean flow interactions is more important than fine-scale representation of the meridional thermal gradient across the polar front. Increasing the horizontal resolution improves the match between the modeled thermal structure and the Mars Climate Sounder retrievals for northern winter high latitudes. While increased horizontal resolution also improves the simulation of the northern high latitudes at equinox, even the lowest model resolution considered here appears to do a good job for the southern winter and southern equinoctial pole (although in detail some discrepancies remain). These results suggest that studies of the northern winter jet (e.g., transient waves and cyclogenesis) will be more sensitive to global model resolution that those of the south (e.g., the confining dynamics of the southern polar vortex relevant to studies of argon transport). For surface winds, the major effect of increased horizontal resolution is in the superposition of circulations forced by local-scale topography upon the large-scale surface wind patterns. While passive predictions of dust lifting are generally insensitive to model horizontal resolution when no lifting threshold is considered, increasing the stress threshold produces significantly more lifting in higher resolution simulations with the generation of finer-scale, higher-stress winds due primarily to better-resolved topography. Considering the positive feedbacks expected for radiatively active dust lifting, we expect this bias to increase when such feedbacks are permitted.

Ocean circulation and climate during the past 120,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmstorf, Stefan

2002-09-01

Oceans cover more than two-thirds of our blue planet. The waters move in a global circulation system, driven by subtle density differences and transporting huge amounts of heat. Ocean circulation is thus an active and highly nonlinear player in the global climate game. Increasingly clear evidence implicates ocean circulation in abrupt and dramatic climate shifts, such as sudden temperature changes in Greenland on the order of 5-10 °C and massive surges of icebergs into the North Atlantic Ocean - events that have occurred repeatedly during the last glacial cycle.

Large- to submesoscale surface circulation and its implications on biogeochemical/biological horizontal distributions during the OUTPACE cruise (southwest Pacific)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rousselet, Louise; de Verneil, Alain; Doglioli, Andrea M.; Petrenko, Anne A.; Duhamel, Solange; Maes, Christophe; Blanke, Bruno

2018-04-01

The patterns of the large-scale, meso- and submesoscale surface circulation on biogeochemical and biological distributions are examined in the western tropical South Pacific (WTSP) in the context of the OUTPACE cruise (February-April 2015). Multi-disciplinary original in situ observations were achieved along a zonal transect through the WTSP and their analysis was coupled with satellite data. The use of Lagrangian diagnostics allows for the identification of water mass pathways, mesoscale structures, and submesoscale features such as fronts. In particular, we confirmed the existence of a global wind-driven southward circulation of surface waters in the entire WTSP, using a new high-resolution altimetry-derived product, validated by in situ drifters, that includes cyclogeostrophy and Ekman components with geostrophy. The mesoscale activity is shown to be responsible for counter-intuitive water mass trajectories in two subregions: (i) the Coral Sea, with surface exchanges between the North Vanuatu Jet and the North Caledonian Jet, and (ii) around 170° W, with an eastward pathway, whereas a westward general direction dominates. Fronts and small-scale features, detected with finite-size Lyapunov exponents (FSLEs), are correlated with 25 % of surface tracer gradients, which reveals the significance of such structures in the generation of submesoscale surface gradients. Additionally, two high-frequency sampling transects of biogeochemical parameters and microorganism abundances demonstrate the influence of fronts in controlling the spatial distribution of bacteria and phytoplankton, and as a consequence the microbial community structure. All circulation scales play an important role that has to be taken into account not only when analysing the data from OUTPACE but also, more generally, for understanding the global distribution of biogeochemical components.

Heat flow evidence for hydrothermal circulation in the volcanic basement of subducting plates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, R. N.; Spinelli, G. A.; Fisher, A. T.

2017-12-01

We summarize and interpret evidence for hydrothermal circulation in subducting oceanic basement from the Nankai, Costa Rica, south central Chile, Haida Gwaii, and Cascadia margins and explore the influence of hydrothermal circulation on plate boundary temperatures in these settings. Heat flow evidence for hydrothermal circulation in the volcanic basement of incoming plates includes: (a) values that are well below conductive (lithospheric) predictions due to advective heat loss, and (b) variability about conductive predictions that cannot be explained by variations in seafloor relief or thermal conductivity. We construct thermal models of these systems that include an aquifer in the upper oceanic crust that enhances heat transport via a high Nusselt number proxy for hydrothermal circulation. At the subduction zones examined, patterns of seafloor heat flow are not well fit by purely conductive simulations, and are better explained by simulations that include the influence of hydrothermal circulation. This result is consistent with the young basement ages (8-35 Ma) of the incoming igneous crust at these sites as well as results from global heat flow analyses showing a significant conductive heat flow deficit for crustal ages less than 65 Ma. Hydrothermal circulation within subducting oceanic basement can have a profound influence on temperatures close to the plate boundary and, in general, leads to plate boundary temperatures that are cooler than those where fluid flow does not occur. The magnitude of cooling depends on the permeability structure of the incoming plate and the evolution of permeability with depth and time. Resolving complex relationships between subduction processes, the permeability structure in the ocean crust, and the dynamics of hydrothermal circulation remains an interdisciplinary frontier.

Identifying external influences on global precipitation

PubMed Central

Marvel, Kate; Bonfils, Céline

2013-01-01

Changes in global (ocean and land) precipitation are among the most important and least well-understood consequences of climate change. Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are thought to affect the zonal-mean distribution of precipitation through two basic mechanisms. First, increasing temperatures will lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle (“thermodynamic” changes). Second, changes in atmospheric circulation patterns will lead to poleward displacement of the storm tracks and subtropical dry zones and to a widening of the tropical belt (“dynamic” changes). We demonstrate that both these changes are occurring simultaneously in global precipitation, that this behavior cannot be explained by internal variability alone, and that external influences are responsible for the observed precipitation changes. Whereas existing model experiments are not of sufficient length to differentiate between natural and anthropogenic forcing terms at the 95% confidence level, we present evidence that the observed trends result from human activities. PMID:24218561

Identifying external influences on global precipitation.

PubMed

Marvel, Kate; Bonfils, Céline

2013-11-26

Changes in global (ocean and land) precipitation are among the most important and least well-understood consequences of climate change. Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are thought to affect the zonal-mean distribution of precipitation through two basic mechanisms. First, increasing temperatures will lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle ("thermodynamic" changes). Second, changes in atmospheric circulation patterns will lead to poleward displacement of the storm tracks and subtropical dry zones and to a widening of the tropical belt ("dynamic" changes). We demonstrate that both these changes are occurring simultaneously in global precipitation, that this behavior cannot be explained by internal variability alone, and that external influences are responsible for the observed precipitation changes. Whereas existing model experiments are not of sufficient length to differentiate between natural and anthropogenic forcing terms at the 95% confidence level, we present evidence that the observed trends result from human activities.

Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health.

PubMed

Heesterbeek, Hans; Anderson, Roy M; Andreasen, Viggo; Bansal, Shweta; De Angelis, Daniela; Dye, Chris; Eames, Ken T D; Edmunds, W John; Frost, Simon D W; Funk, Sebastian; Hollingsworth, T Deirdre; House, Thomas; Isham, Valerie; Klepac, Petra; Lessler, Justin; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Mollison, Denis; Pellis, Lorenzo; Pulliam, Juliet R C; Roberts, Mick G; Viboud, Cecile

2015-03-13

Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales, which span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and local to global spread. Moreover, some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, whereas others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity and changeable human behavior, elevate prevention and control from matters of national policy to international challenge. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer valuable tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing quantitative evidence for decision-making in global health. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

40 CFR 230.23 - Current patterns and water circulation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... or fill material can modify current patterns and water circulation by obstructing flow, changing the direction or velocity of water flow, changing the direction or velocity of water flow and circulation, or otherwise changing the dimensions of a water body. As a result, adverse changes can occur in: Location...

40 CFR 230.23 - Current patterns and water circulation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... or fill material can modify current patterns and water circulation by obstructing flow, changing the direction or velocity of water flow, changing the direction or velocity of water flow and circulation, or otherwise changing the dimensions of a water body. As a result, adverse changes can occur in: Location...

40 CFR 230.23 - Current patterns and water circulation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... or fill material can modify current patterns and water circulation by obstructing flow, changing the direction or velocity of water flow, changing the direction or velocity of water flow and circulation, or otherwise changing the dimensions of a water body. As a result, adverse changes can occur in: Location...

Application of SIR-C SAR to Hydrology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Engman, Edwin T.; ONeill, Peggy; Wood, Eric; Pauwels, Valentine; Hsu, Ann; Jackson, Tom; Shi, J. C.; Prietzsch, Corinna

1996-01-01

The progress, results and future plans regarding the following objectives are presented: (1) Determine and compare soil moisture patterns within one or more humid watersheds using SAR data, ground-based measurements, and hydrologic modeling; (2) Use radar data to characterize the hydrologic regime within a catchment and to identify the runoff producing characteristics of humid zone watersheds; and (3) Use radar data as the basis for scaling up from small scale, near-point process models to larger scale water balance models necessary to define and quantify the land phase of GCM's (Global Circulation Models).

Impacts of changing ocean circulation on the distribution of marine microplastic litter.

PubMed

Welden, Natalie Ac; Lusher, Amy L

2017-05-01

Marine plastic pollution is currently a major scientific focus, with attention paid to its distribution and impacts within ecosystems. With recent estimates indicating that the mass of plastic released to the marine environment may reach 250 million metric tons by 2025, the effects of plastic on our oceans are set to increase. Distribution of microplastics, those plastics measuring less than 5 mm, are of increasing concern because they represent an increasing proportion of marine litter and are known to interact with species in a range of marine habitats. The local abundance of microplastic is dependent on a complex interaction between the scale of local plastic sources and prevailing environmental conditions; as a result, microplastic distribution is highly heterogeneous. Circulation models have been used to predict plastic distribution; however, current models do not consider future variation in circulation patterns and weather systems caused by a changing climate. In this study, we discuss the potential impacts of global climate change on the abundance and distribution of marine plastic pollution. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:483-487. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

A Global-Scale Examination of Monsoon-Related Precipitation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janowiak, John E.; Xie, Pingping

2003-12-01

A pentad version of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project global precipitation dataset is used to document the annual and interannual variations in precipitation over monsoon regions around the globe. An algorithm is described that determines objectively wet season onset and withdrawal for individual years, and this tool is used to examine the behavior of various characteristics of the major monsoon systems. The definition of onset and withdrawal are determined by examining the ramp-up and diminution of rainfall within the context of the climatological rainfall at each location. Also examined are interannual variations in onset and withdrawal and their relationship to rainy season precipitation accumulations. Changes in the distribution of “heavy” and “light” precipitation events are examined for years in which “abundant” and “poor” wet seasons are observed, and associations with variations in large-scale atmospheric general circulation features are also examined. In particular, some regions of the world have strong associations between wet season rainfall and global-scale patterns of 200-hPa streamfunction anomalies.

Influence of synoptic weather patterns on solar irradiance variability in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parding, Kajsa; Hinkelman, Laura; Liepert, Beate; Ackerman, Thomas; Dagestad, Knut-Frode; Asle Olseth, Jan

2014-05-01

Solar radiation is important for many aspects of existence on Earth, including the biosphere, the hydrological cycle, and creatures living on the planet. Previous studies have reported decadal trends in observational records of surface shortwave (SW) irradiance around the world, too strong to be caused by varying solar output. These observed decadal trends have been dubbed "solar dimming and brightening" and are believed to be related to changes in atmospheric aerosols and cloud cover. Because the observed solar variability coincides with qualitative air pollution histories, the dimming and brightening have become almost synonymous with shortwave attenuation by anthropogenic aerosols. However, there are indications that atmospheric circulation patterns have influenced the dimming and brightening in some regions, e.g., Alaska and Scandinavia. In this work, we focus on the role of atmospheric circulation patterns in modifying shortwave irradiance. An examination of European SW irradiance data from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) shows that while there are periods of predominantly decreasing (~1970-1985) and increasing (~1985-2007) SW irradiance, the changes are not spatially uniform within Europe and in a majority of locations not statistically significant. To establish a connection between weather patterns and sunshine, regression models of SW irradiance are fitted using a daily classification of European weather called Grosswetterlagen (GWL). The GWL reconstructions of shortwave irradiance represent the part of the solar variability that is related to large scale weather patterns, which should be effectively separated from the influence of varying anthropogenic aerosol emissions. The correlation (R) between observed and reconstruced SW irradiance is between 0.31 and 0.75, depending on station and season, all statistically significant (p<0.05, estimated with a bootstrap test). In central and eastern parts of Europe, the observed decadal SW variability is poorly represented by the GWL models, but in northern Europe, the GWL model recreates observed decadal solar variability well. This finding suggests that natural and/or anthropogenic variations in circulation patterns have influenced solar dimming and brightening to a higher degree in the north than in the rest of Europe.

Monitoring and Modeling the Tibetan Plateau's climate system and its impact on East Asia.

PubMed

Ma, Yaoming; Ma, Weiqiang; Zhong, Lei; Hu, Zeyong; Li, Maoshan; Zhu, Zhikun; Han, Cunbo; Wang, Binbin; Liu, Xin

2017-03-13

The Tibetan Plateau is an important water source in Asia. As the "Third Pole" of the Earth, the Tibetan Plateau has significant dynamic and thermal effects on East Asian climate patterns, the Asian monsoon process and atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. However, little systematic knowledge is available regarding the changing climate system of the Tibetan Plateau and the mechanisms underlying its impact on East Asia. This study was based on "water-cryosphere-atmosphere-biology" multi-sphere interactions, primarily considering global climate change in relation to the Tibetan Plateau -East Asia climate system and its mechanisms. This study also analyzed the Tibetan Plateau to clarify global climate change by considering multi-sphere energy and water processes. Additionally, the impacts of climate change in East Asia and the associated impact mechanisms were revealed, and changes in water cycle processes and water conversion mechanisms were studied. The changes in surface thermal anomalies, vegetation, local circulation and the atmospheric heat source on the Tibetan Plateau were studied, specifically, their effects on the East Asian monsoon and energy balance mechanisms. Additionally, the relationships between heating mechanisms and monsoon changes were explored.

Monitoring and Modeling the Tibetan Plateau’s climate system and its impact on East Asia

PubMed Central

Ma, Yaoming; Ma, Weiqiang; Zhong, Lei; Hu, Zeyong; Li, Maoshan; Zhu, Zhikun; Han, Cunbo; Wang, Binbin; Liu, Xin

2017-01-01

The Tibetan Plateau is an important water source in Asia. As the “Third Pole” of the Earth, the Tibetan Plateau has significant dynamic and thermal effects on East Asian climate patterns, the Asian monsoon process and atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. However, little systematic knowledge is available regarding the changing climate system of the Tibetan Plateau and the mechanisms underlying its impact on East Asia. This study was based on “water-cryosphere-atmosphere-biology” multi-sphere interactions, primarily considering global climate change in relation to the Tibetan Plateau -East Asia climate system and its mechanisms. This study also analyzed the Tibetan Plateau to clarify global climate change by considering multi-sphere energy and water processes. Additionally, the impacts of climate change in East Asia and the associated impact mechanisms were revealed, and changes in water cycle processes and water conversion mechanisms were studied. The changes in surface thermal anomalies, vegetation, local circulation and the atmospheric heat source on the Tibetan Plateau were studied, specifically, their effects on the East Asian monsoon and energy balance mechanisms. Additionally, the relationships between heating mechanisms and monsoon changes were explored. PMID:28287648

An Intercomparison of the Dynamical Cores of Global Atmospheric Circulation Models for Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

1998-01-01

This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. The focus of this JRI has been to evaluate the dynamical 'cores' of two global atmospheric circulation models for Mars that are in operation at the NASA Ames Research Center. The two global circulation models in use are fundamentally different: one uses spherical harmonics in its horizontal representation of field variables; the other uses finite differences on a uniform longitude-latitude grid. Several simulations have been conducted to assess how the dynamical processors of each of these circulation models perform using identical 'simple physics' parameterizations. A variety of climate statistics (e.g., time-mean flows and eddy fields) have been compared for realistic solstitial mean basic states. Results of this research have demonstrated that the two Mars circulation models with completely different spatial representations and discretizations produce rather similar circulation statistics for first-order meteorological fields, suggestive of a tendency for convergence of numerical solutions. Second and higher-order fields can, however, vary significantly between the two models.

An Intercomparison of the Dynamical Cores of Global Atmospheric Circulation Models for Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

1998-01-01

This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Cen- ter and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. The focus of this JRI has been to evaluate the dynamical "cores" of two global atmospheric circulation models for Mars that are in operation at the NASA Ames Research Center. ne two global circulation models in use are fundamentally different: one uses spherical harmonics in its horizontal representation of field variables; the other uses finite differences on a uniform longitude-latitude grid. Several simulations have been conducted to assess how the dynamical processors of each of these circulation models perform using identical "simple physics" parameterizations. A variety of climate statistics (e.g., time-mean flows and eddy fields) have been compared for realistic solstitial mean basic states. Results of this research have demonstrated that the two Mars circulation models with completely different spatial representations and discretizations produce rather similar circulation statistics for first-order meteorological fields, suggestive of a tendency for convergence of numerical solutions. Second and higher-order fields can, however, vary significantly between the two models.

Key processes for the eastward propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation based on multimodel simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Xianan

2017-01-01

As a prominent climate variability mode with widespread influences on global weather extremes, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains poorly represented in the latest generation of general circulation models (GCMs), with a particular challenge in simulating its eastward propagating convective signals. In this study, by analyzing multimodel simulations from a recent global MJO model evaluation project, an effort is made to identify key processes for the eastward propagation of the MJO through analyses of moisture entropy (ME) processes under a "moisture mode" framework for the MJO. The column-integrated horizontal ME advection is found to play a critical role for the eastward propagation of the MJO in both observations and good MJO models, with a primary contribution through advection of the lower tropospheric seasonal mean ME by the MJO anomalous circulations. By contrast, the horizontal ME advection effect for the eastward propagation is greatly underestimated in poor MJO GCMs, due to model deficiencies in simulating both the seasonal mean ME pattern and MJO circulations, leading to a largely stationary MJO mode in these GCMs. These results thus pinpoint an important guidance toward improved representation of the MJO in climate and weather forecast models. While this study mainly focuses on fundamental physics for the MJO propagation over the Indian Ocean, complex influences by the Maritime Continent on the MJO and also ME processes associated with the MJO over the western Pacific warrant further investigations.

Simulated and Observed Circulation in the Indonesian Seas: 1/12 degree Global HYCOM and the INSTANT Observations

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

Circulation in the Indonesian Seas: 1/12 degree Global HYCOM and the INSTANT Observations 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM...SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT A l/l 2 global version of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) using 3-hourly atmospheric forcing is analyzed and...TERMS Indonesian Throughflow, global HYCOM, INSTANT, Inter-ocean exchange, ocean modeling 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: a. REPORT Unclassified b

Concurrent Simulation of the Eddying General Circulation and Tides in a Global Ocean Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

Eddying General Circulation and Tides in a Global Ocean Model 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 0602435N 6...STATEMENT Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited. 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT This paper presents a five-year global ...running 25-h average to approximately separate tidal and non-tidal components of the near-bottom flow. In contrast to earlier high-resolution global

CISOCUR - Residence time modelling in the Curonian Lagoon and validation through stable isotope measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Umgiesser, Georg; Razinkovas-Baziukas, Arturas; Zemlys, Petras; Ertürk, Ali; Mėžinė, Jovita

2015-04-01

The spatial pattern of the hydrodynamic circulation of the Curonian lagoon, the largest European coastal lagoon, is still little understood. In absence of automatic current registration data all the existing models relied mostly on such data as water levels leaving high level of uncertainty. Here we present CISOCUR, a new project financed by European Social Fund under the Global Grant measure. The project applies a new methodology that uses the carbon stable isotope (SI) ratio of C12 and C13 that characterize different water sources entering the lagoon and may be altered by internal kinetic processes. Through the tracing of these isotope ratios different water masses can be identified. This gives the possibility to validate several hypotheses of water circulation and validate hydrodynamic models. In particular it will be possible to 1) trace water masses entering the lagoon through the Nemunas and the Klaipeda strait; 2) test the hypothesis of sediment transport mechanisms inside the lagoon; 3) evaluate the importance of physical forcing on the lagoon circulation. The use of a hydrodynamic finite element model, coupled with the SI method, will allow for a realistic description of the transport processes inside the Curonian lagoon. So the main research goal is to apply the stable isotope tracers and a finite element model to determine the circulation patterns in the Curonian lagoon. Here we show how the SI analysis was used to validate the hydrodynamic model on the basis of residence time. The average residence time of the Nemunas waters is estimated through SI data and is then compared with the model data computed through standard algorithms. Seasonal changes of carbon content are taken care of through a preliminary application of a carbon kinetic model. The results are compared to literature data.

Wind directions predicted from global circulation models and wind directions determined from eolian sandstones of the western United States-A comparison

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrish, Judith T.; Peterson, F.

1988-01-01

Wind directions for Middle Pennsylvanian through Jurassic time are predicted from global circulation models for the western United States. These predictions are compared with paleowind directions interpreted from eolian sandstones of Middle Pennsylvanian through Jurassic age. Predicted regional wind directions correspond with at least three-quarters of the paleowind data from the sandstones; the rest of the data may indicate problems with correlation, local effects of paleogeography on winds, and lack of resolution of the circulation models. The data and predictions suggest the following paleoclimatic developments through the time interval studied: predominance of winter subtropical high-pressure circulation in the Late Pennsylvanian; predominance of summer subtropical high-pressure circulation in the Permian; predominance of summer monsoonal circulation in the Triassic and earliest Jurassic; and, during the remainder of the Jurassic, influence of both summer subtropical and summer monsoonal circulation, with the boundary between the two systems over the western United States. This sequence of climatic changes is largely owing to paleogeographic changes, which influenced the buildup and breakdown of the monsoonal circulation, and possibly owing partly to a decrease in the global temperature gradient, which might have lessened the influence of the subtropical high-pressure circulation. The atypical humidity of Triassic time probably resulted from the monsoonal circulation created by the geography of Pangaea. This circulation is predicted to have been at a maximum in the Triassic and was likely to have been powerful enough to draw moisture along the equator from the ocean to the west. ?? 1988.

Impact of Stratospheric Ozone Distribution on Features of Tropospheric Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barodka, Siarhei; Krasouski, Aliaksandr; Mitskevich, Yaroslav; Shalamyansky, Arkady

2016-04-01

In this work we study connections between stratospheric ozone distribution and general circulation patterns in the troposphere and aim to investigate the causal relationship between them, including the practical side of the influence of stratospheric ozone on tropospheric medium-range weather and regional climate. Analysis of several decades of observational data, which has been performed at the A.I. Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, suggests a clear relation between the stratospheric ozone distribution, upper stratospheric temperature field and planetary-scale air-masses boundaries in the troposphere [1]. Furthermore, it has been shown that each global air-mass, which can be attributed to the corresponding circulation cell in a conceptual model of tropospheric general circulation, has a distinct "regime" of ozone vertical distribution in the stratosphere [1-3]. Proceeding from atmospheric reanalyses combined with satellite and ground-based observations, we study time evolution of the upper-level frontal zones (stationary fronts) with the relevant jet streams, which can be treated as boundaries of global air-masses, in connection with the tropopause height and distribution of ozone in the stratosphere. For that, we develop an algorithm for automated identification of jet streams, stationary fronts and tropopause surface from gridded data (reanalyses or modelling results), and apply it for several cases associated with rapid changes in the stratospheric temperature and ozone fields, including SSW events over Eastern Siberia. Aiming to study the causal relationship between the features of tropospheric circulation and changes in the stratospheric ozone field, we estimate the time lag between these categories of processes on different time scales. Finally, we discuss the possibility to use the elementary circulation mechanisms classification (by B.L. Dzerdzeevski) in connection with analysis of the stratospheric ozone field and the relevant stratosphere-troposphere interactions. [1] Shalamyansky A.M., Proceedings of Voeikov MGO, St. Petersburg, V. 568, pp. 173-194, 2013 [2] R.D. Hudson et al, J. Atmos. Sci., V. 60, pp. 1669-1677, 2003 [3] R.D. Hudson et al, Atmos. Chem. Phys., V. 6, pp. 5183-5191, 2006

Sea-level variability in the Common Era along the Atlantic coast of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kemp, A.; Kopp, R. E.; Horton, B.; Little, C. M.; Engelhart, S. E.; Mitrovica, J. X.

2017-12-01

Common Era relative sea-level trends on the margins of the North Atlantic Ocean vary through time and across space as a result of simultaneous global (basin-wide)-, regional- (linear and non-linear), and local-scale processes. A growing suite of relative sea-level reconstructions derived from dated salt-marsh (and mangrove) sediment on the Atlantic coast of North America provides an opportunity to quantify the contributions from several physical processes to Common Era sea-level trends. In particular, this coastline is susceptible to relative sea-level changes caused by melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and redistribution of existing ocean mass on timescales of days to centuries by evolving patterns and strengths of atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Using a case study from Newfoundland, Canada, we demonstrate how high-resolution (decadal- and decimeter-scale) relative sea level reconstructions are produced from sequences of salt-marsh sediment that were deposited under conditions of long-term sea-level rise. We use an expanded database of Common Era relative sea-level reconstructions from the Atlantic coast of North America that spans locations from Newfoundland to the southern Florida to identify spatial and temporal patterns of change. A spatio-temporal statistical model enables us to decompose each reconstruction (with uncertainty) into contributions from global-, regional- (linear and non-linear), and local-scale processes. This analysis shows that spatially-variable glacio-isostatic adjustment was the primary driver of sea-level change. The global signal is dominated by the onset of anthropogenic sea-level rise in the late 19th century, which caused the 20th century to experience a faster rate of rise than any of the preceding 26 centuries. Differentiating between regional non-linear and local-scale processes is a challenging using an inherently sparse network of reconstructions. However, we show that sites south of Cape Hatteras have sea-level histories distinct to those from more northward locations and propose that this spatial pattern is best explained by dynamic processes that could include century-scale NAO-driven circulation changes. Complementary paleoenvironmental reconstructions from diverse proxies support this interpretation.

Wind-driven circulation patterns in a shallow estuarine lake: St Lucia, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoen, Julia H.; Stretch, Derek D.; Tirok, Katrin

2014-06-01

The spatiotemporal structure of wind-driven circulation patterns and associated water exchanges or residence times can drive important bio-hydrodynamic interactions in shallow lakes and estuaries. The St Lucia estuarine lake in South Africa is an example of such a system. It is a UNESCO World Heritage Site and RAMSAR wetland of international importance but no detailed research on its circulation patterns has previously been undertaken. In this study, a hydrodynamic model was used to investigate the structure of these circulations to provide insights into their role in transport and water exchange processes. A strong diurnal temporal pattern of wind speeds, together with directional switching between two dominant directions, drives intermittent water exchanges and mixing between the lake basins. “High speed flows in shallow nearshore areas with slower upwind counter-flows in deeper areas, linked by circulatory gyres, are key features of the circulation”. These patterns are strongly influenced by the complex geometry of St Lucia and constrictions in the system. Water exchange time scales are non-homogeneous with some basin extremities having relatively long residence times. The influence of the circulation patterns on biological processes is discussed.

The Ocean's Abyssal Mass Flux Sustained Primarily By the Wind: Vector Correlation of Time Series in Upper and Abyssal Layers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hancock, L. O.

2003-12-01

As Wunsch has recently noted (2002), use of the term "thermohaline circulation" is muddled. The term is used with at least seven inconsistent meanings, among them abyssal circulation, the circulation driven by density and pressure differences in the deep ocean, the global conveyor, and at least four others. The use of a single term for all these concepts can create an impression that an understanding exists whereby in various combinations the seven meanings have been demonstrated to mean the same thing. But that is not the case. A particularly important consequence of the muddle is the way in which abyssal circulation is sometimes taken to be driven mostly or entirely by temperature and density differences, and equivalent to the global conveyor. But in fact the distinction between abyssal and upper-layer circulation has not been measured. To find out whether available data justifies a distinction between the upper-layer and abyssal circulations, this study surveyed velocity time series obtained by deep current meter moorings. Altogether, 114 moorings were identified, drawn from about three dozen experiments worldwide over the period 1973-1996, each of which deployed current meters in both the upper (2003750) layers. For each pair of current meters, the Kundu and Crosby measures of vector correlation were estimated, as well as coherences for periods from 10 to 60 days. In the North Atlantic, for example, Kundu vector correlation (50-day window): 0.48 +/- .03 Crosby vector correlation (absolute value, 50 day window): 0.46 +/- .07 Coherence at 60 days: .36 +/- .07 - at 30 days: 0.40 +/- .06 - at 10 days: 0.22 +/- .05 Most figures for the South Atlantic, Pacific and Southern Oceans are similar. Those obtained in the Indian Ocean or near the Equator are somewhat different. The statistics obtained here are consistent with the work of Wunsch (1997), and tend to confirm Wunsch's result that current velocities at depth are linked with those in the upper layers. Energetics of the circulation that do not take this into account are making an unjustifiable approximation of the physics. These results do not tell us whether time averaged flow on longer time scales might permit distinction of upper layer and abyssal flow components. Some intriguing corollaries do follow. First, the abyssal circulation is not identically the same thing as a global conveyor belt driven by temperature and density differences. Rather, as Wunsch noted (2002), the ocean's mass flux is sustained primarily by the wind. We may add that these wind patterns are about as robust as the temperature differences between equator and pole; this major driver of circulation is not a frail phenomenon. Second, the classical notion of a level of no motion that is also a constant-density surface, an LNM, is inconsistent with the results presented here. Such an LNM would wall off the upper layer circulation from the lower, and as they are not walled off, there can be no such LNM. Third, wind stress is being transmitted down column, presumably to the sea floor.

Dynamically correlated mutations drive human Influenza A evolution.

PubMed

Tria, F; Pompei, S; Loreto, V

2013-01-01

Human Influenza A virus undergoes recurrent changes in the hemagglutinin (HA) surface protein, primarily involved in the human antibody recognition. Relevant antigenic changes, enabling the virus to evade host immune response, have been recognized to occur in parallel to multiple mutations at antigenic sites in HA. Yet, the role of correlated mutations (epistasis) in driving the molecular evolution of the virus still represents a challenging puzzle. Further, though circulation at a global geographic level is key for the survival of Influenza A, its role in shaping the viral phylodynamics remains largely unexplored. Here we show, through a sequence based epidemiological model, that epistatic effects between amino acids substitutions, coupled with a reservoir that mimics worldwide circulating viruses, are key determinants that drive human Influenza A evolution. Our approach explains all the up-to-date observations characterizing the evolution of H3N2 subtype, including phylogenetic properties, nucleotide fixation patterns, and composition of antigenic clusters.

Oceanic circulation models help to predict global biogeography of pelagic yellow-bellied sea snake

PubMed Central

Cotté, Cédric; Bailleul, Frédéric; Lalire, Maxime; Gaspar, Philippe

2016-01-01

It is well recognized that most marine vertebrates, and especially tetrapods, precisely orient and actively move in apparently homogeneous oceanic environments. Here, we investigate the presumptive role of oceanic currents in biogeographic patterns observed in a secondarily marine tetrapod, the yellow-bellied sea snake (Hydrophis [Pelamis] platurus). State-of-the-art world ocean circulation models show how H. platurus, the only pelagic species of sea snake, can potentially exploit oceanic currents to disperse and maintain population mixing between localities that spread over two-thirds of the Earth's circumference. The very close association of these snakes with surface currents seems to provide a highly efficient dispersal mechanism that allowed this species to range extensively and relatively quickly well beyond the central Indo-Pacific area, the centre of origin, abundance and diversity of sea snakes. Our results further suggest that the pan-oceanic population of this species must be extraordinarily large. PMID:27555651

Hydrothermal plumes over spreading-center axes: Global distributions and geological inferences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Edward T.; German, Christopher R.; Elderfield, Henry

Seafloor hydrothermal circulation is the principal agent of energy and mass exchange between the ocean and the earth's crust. Discharging fluids cool hot rock, construct mineral deposits, nurture biological communities, alter deep-sea mixing and circulation patterns, and profoundly influence ocean chemistry and biology. Although the active discharge orifices themselves cover only a minuscule percentage of the ridge-axis seafloor, the investigation and quantification of their effects is enhanced as a consequence of the mixing process that forms hydrothermal plumes. Hydrothermal fluids discharged from vents are rapidly diluted with ambient seawater by factors of 104-105 [Lupton et al., 1985]. During dilution, the mixture rises tens to hundreds of meters to a level of neutral buoyancy, eventually spreading laterally as a distinct hydrographic and chemical layer with a spatial scale of tens to thousands of kilometers [e.g., Lupton and Craig, 1981; Baker and Massoth, 1987; Speer and Rona, 1989].

Decadal changes in North Atlantic atmospheric circulation patterns recorded by sand spits since 1800 CE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poirier, Clément; Tessier, Bernadette; Chaumillon, Éric; Bertin, Xavier; Fruergaard, Mikkel; Mouazé, Dominique; Noël, Suzanne; Weill, Pierre; Wöppelmann, Guy

2017-03-01

Present-day coastal barriers represent around 15% of the world's oceanic shorelines, and play an important role as early warning indicators of environmental change. Among them, wave-dominated barriers are dynamic landforms that tend to migrate landward in response to storms and sea-level change. High rates of sediment supply can locally offset the global retrogradation trend, providing valuable records of past environmental change occurring on transgressive coasts. However, geochronological control limits the temporal resolution of such records to millennial or centennial timescales, and the decadal or even faster response of wave-built barriers to historical climate changes is therefore poorly understood. In this study, we show that shoreline dynamics of sand spits reconstructed from old cartographic documents has been synchronous on both margins of the North Atlantic Ocean since about 1800 CE. Spit growth accelerated drastically during three periods lasting about 15 years, characterised by positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and negative East Atlantic-West Russia (EA-WR) atmospheric circulation patterns. These changes are in phase with periods of increased volcanic activity. We use a high-resolution wave hindcast (1948-2014 CE) in a reference area to confirm the association between NAO and EA-WR as a proxy for offshore and nearshore wave height and for associated longshore sediment transport (LST) involved in spit growth. A 24-month lagged correlation between sediment transport and volcanic aerosol optical thickness (concentration of ashes in the atmosphere) is observed, suggesting that spit shoreline dynamics at the decadal timescale is partially forced by external climate drivers via cascading effects on atmospheric circulation patterns and wave climate. Our results imply that NAO variability alone is not sufficient to understand the evolution of wave-built coastal environments. The associated sediment record can be used to reconstruct multi-decadal variability of other climate patterns.

Linkages between ocean circulation, heat uptake and transient warming: a sensitivity study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfister, Patrik; Stocker, Thomas

2016-04-01

Transient global warming due to greenhouse gas radiative forcing is substantially reduced by ocean heat uptake (OHU). However, the fraction of equilibrium warming that is realized in transient climate model simulations differs strongly between models (Frölicher and Paynter 2015). It has been shown that this difference is not only related to the magnitude of OHU, but also to the radiative response the OHU causes, measured by the OHU efficacy (Winton et al., 2010). This efficacy is strongly influenced by the spatial pattern of the OHU and its changes (Rose et al. 2014, Winton et al. 2013), predominantly caused by changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Even in absence of external greenhouse gas forcing, an AMOC weakening causes a radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere (Peltier and Vettoretti, 2014), inducing in a net warming of the Earth System. We investigate linkages between those findings by performing both freshwater and greenhouse gas experiments in an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. To assess the sensitivity of the results to ocean and atmospheric transport as well as climate sensitivity, we use an ensemble of model versions, systematically varying key parameters. We analyze circulation changes and radiative adjustments in conjunction with traditional warming metrics such as the transient climate response and the equilibrium climate sensitivity. This aims to improve the understanding of the influence of ocean circulation and OHU on transient climate change, and of the relevance of different metrics for describing this influence. References: Frölicher, T. L. and D.J. Paynter (2015), Extending the relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial timescales, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 075022 Peltier, W. R., and G. Vettoretti (2014), Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations predicted in a comprehensive model of glacial climate: A "kicked" salt oscillator in the Atlantic, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 7306-7313 Rose, B. E. J., K. C. Armour, D. S. Battisti, N. Feldl, and D. D. B. Koll (2014), The dependence of transient climate sensitivity and radiative feedbacks on the spatial pattern of ocean heat uptake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1071-1078 Winton M., K. Takahashi and I. M. Held (2010), Importance of ocean heat uptake efficacy to transient climate change, J. Clim., 23, 2333-44 Winton, M., S. M. Griffies, B. Samuels, J. L. Sarmiento and T. L. Frölicher (2013) Connecting changing ocean circulation with changing climate, J. Clim., 26, 2268-78

Synoptic-scale circulation patterns during summer derived from tree rings in mid-latitude Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seim, Andrea; Schultz, Johannes A.; Leland, Caroline; Davi, Nicole; Byambasuren, Oyunsanaa; Liang, Eryuan; Wang, Xiaochun; Beck, Christoph; Linderholm, Hans W.; Pederson, Neil

2017-09-01

Understanding past and recent climate and atmospheric circulation variability is vital for regions that are affected by climate extremes. In mid-latitude Asia, however, the synoptic climatology is complex and not yet fully understood. The aim of this study was to investigate dominant synoptic-scale circulation patterns during the summer season using a multi-species tree-ring width (TRW) network comprising 78 sites from mid-latitude Asia. For each TRW chronology, we calculated an atmospheric circulation tree-ring index (ACTI), based on 1000 hPa geopotential height data, to directly link tree growth to 13 summertime weather types and their associated local climate conditions for the period 1871-1993. Using the ACTI, three groups of similarly responding tree-ring sites can be associated with distinct large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns: 1. growth of drought sensitive trees is positively affected by a cyclone over northern Russia; 2. temperature sensitive trees show positive associations to a cyclone over northwestern Russia and an anticyclone over Mongolia; 3. trees at two high elevation sites show positive relations to a zonal cyclone extending from mid-latitude Eurasia to the West Pacific. The identified synoptic-scale circulation patterns showed spatiotemporal variability in their intensity and position, causing temporally varying climate conditions in mid-latitude Asia. Our results highlight that for regions with less pronounced atmospheric action centers during summer such as the occurrence of large-scale cyclones and anticyclones, synoptic-scale circulation patterns can be extracted and linked to the Northern Hemisphere circulation system. Thus, we provide a new and solid envelope for climate studies covering the past to the future.

Spatio-temporal atmospheric circulation variability around the Antarctic Peninsula based on hemispheric circulation modes and weather types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wachter, Paul; Beck, Christoph; Philipp, Andreas; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Höppner, Kathrin

2017-04-01

Large parts of the Polar Regions are affected by a warming trend associated with substantial changes in the cryosphere. In Antarctica this positive trend pattern is most dominant in the western part of the continent and on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). An important driving mechanism of temperature variability and trends in this region is the atmospheric circulation. Changes in atmospheric circulation modes and frequencies of circulation types have major impacts on temperature characteristics at a certain station or region. We present results of a statistical downscaling study focused on AP temperature variability showing both results of large-scale atmospheric circulation modes and regional weather type classifications derived from monthly and daily gridded reanalysis data sets. In order to investigate spatial trends and variabilities of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), we analyze spatio-temporally resolved SAM-pattern maps from 1979 to 2015. First results show dominant multi-annual to decadal pattern variabilities which can be directly linked to temperature variabilities at the Antarctic Peninsula. A sub-continental to regional view on the influence of atmospheric circulation on AP temperature variability is given by the analysis of weather type classifications (WTC). With this analysis we identify significant changes in the frequency of occurrence of highly temperature-relevant circulation patterns. The investigated characteristics of weather type frequencies can also be related to the identified changes of the SAM.

Stratospheric Ozone Distribution and Tropospheric General Circulation: Interconnections in the UTLS Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barodka, S.; Krasovsky, A.; Shalamyansky, A.

2014-12-01

The height of the tropopause, which divided the stratosphere and the troposphere, is a result of two rival categories of processes: the tropospheric vertical convection and the radiative heating of the stratosphere resulting from the ozone cycle. Hence, it is natural that tropospheric and stratospheric phenomena can have effect each other in manifold processes of stratosphere-troposphere interactions. In the present study we focus our attention to the "top-down" side of the interaction: the impact of stratospheric ozone distribution on the features of tropospheric circulation and the associated weather patterns and regional climate conditions. We proceed from analyzes of the observational data performed at the A.I. Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, which suggest a distinct correlation between stratospheric ozone distribution, synoptic formations and air-masses boundaries in the upper troposphere and the temperature field of the lower stratosphere [1]. Furthermore, we analyze local features of atmospheric general circulation and stratospheric ozone distribution from the atmospheric reanalyses and general circulation model data, focusing our attention to instantaneous positions of subtropical and polar stationary atmospheric fronts, which define regional characteristics of the general circulation cells in the troposphere and separate global tropospheric air-masses, correspond to distinct meteorological regimes in the TOC field [2, 3]. We assume that by altering the tropopause height, stratospheric ozone-related processes can have an impact on the location of the stationary atmospheric fronts, thereby exerting influence on circulation processes in troposphere and lower stratosphere. For midlatitudes, the tropopause height controls the position of the polar stationary front, which has a direct impact on the trajectory of motion of active vortices on synoptic tropospheric levels, thereby controlling weather patterns in that region and the regional climate. This mechanism is particularly important for the formation of blocking events. [1] A.M. Shalamyansky - Proceedings of Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, V. 568, pp. 173-194, 2013 (in Russian) [2] R.D. Hudson et al - J. Atmos. Sci., V. 60, pp. 1669-1677, 2003. [3] R.D. Hudson et al - Atmos. Chem. Phys., V. 6, pp. 5183-5191, 2006.

Understanding uncertainty in precipitation changes in a balanced perturbed-physics ensemble under multiple climate forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millar, R.; Ingram, W.; Allen, M. R.; Lowe, J.

2013-12-01

Temperature and precipitation patterns are the climate variables with the greatest impacts on both natural and human systems. Due to the small spatial scales and the many interactions involved in the global hydrological cycle, in general circulation models (GCMs) representations of precipitation changes are subject to considerable uncertainty. Quantifying and understanding the causes of uncertainty (and identifying robust features of predictions) in both global and local precipitation change is an essential challenge of climate science. We have used the huge distributed computing capacity of the climateprediction.net citizen science project to examine parametric uncertainty in an ensemble of 20,000 perturbed-physics versions of the HadCM3 general circulation model. The ensemble has been selected to have a control climate in top-of-atmosphere energy balance [Yamazaki et al. 2013, J.G.R.]. We force this ensemble with several idealised climate-forcing scenarios including carbon dioxide step and transient profiles, solar radiation management geoengineering experiments with stratospheric aerosols, and short-lived climate forcing agents. We will present the results from several of these forcing scenarios under GCM parametric uncertainty. We examine the global mean precipitation energy budget to understand the robustness of a simple non-linear global precipitation model [Good et al. 2012, Clim. Dyn.] as a better explanation of precipitation changes in transient climate projections under GCM parametric uncertainty than a simple linear tropospheric energy balance model. We will also present work investigating robust conclusions about precipitation changes in a balanced ensemble of idealised solar radiation management scenarios [Kravitz et al. 2011, Atmos. Sci. Let.].

Impacts of deforestation and afforestation in the Mediterranean region as simulated by the MPI atmospheric GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dümenil Gates, Lydia; Ließ, Stefan

2001-10-01

For two reasons it is important to study the sensitivity of the global climate to changes in the vegetation cover over land. First, in the real world, changes in the vegetation cover may have regional and global implications. Second, in numerical simulations, the sensitivity of the simulated climate may depend on the specific parameterization schemes employed in the model and on the model's large-scale systematic errors. The Max-Planck-Institute's global general circulation model ECHAM4 has been used to study the sensitivity of the local and global climate during a full annual cycle to deforestation and afforestation in the Mediterranean region. The deforestation represents an extreme desertification scenario for this region. The changes in the afforestation experiment are based on the pattern of the vegetation cover 2000 years before present when the climate in the Mediterranean was more humid. The comparison of the deforestation integration to the control shows a slight cooling at the surface and reduced precipitation during the summer as a result of less evapotranspiration of plants and less evaporation from the assumption of eroded soils. There is no significant signal during the winter season due to the stronger influence of the mid-latitude baroclinic disturbances. In general, the results of the afforestation experiment are opposite to those of the deforestation case. A significant response was found in the vicinity of grid points where the land surface characteristics were modified. The response in the Sahara in the afforestation experiment is in agreement with the results from other general circulation model studies.

Different impacts of mega-ENSO and conventional ENSO on the Indian summer rainfall: developing phase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lei; Wu, Zhiwei; Zhou, Yefan

2016-04-01

Mega-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a boarder version of conventional ENSO, is found to be a main driving force of Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon rainfall including the Indian summer rainfall (ISR). The simultaneous impacts of "pure" mega-ENSO and "pure" conventional ENSO events on the ISR in its developing summer remains unclear. This study examines the different linkages between mega-ENSO-ISR and conventional ENSO-ISR. During the developing summer of mega-El Niño, negative rainfall anomalies are seen over the northeastern Indian subcontinent, while the anomalous rainfall pattern is almost the opposite for mega-La Niña; as for the conventional ENSO, the approximate "linear opposite" phenomenon vanishes. Furthermore, the global zonal wave trains anomalous are found at mid-latitude zones, with a local triple circulation pattern over the central-east Eurasia during mega-ENSO events, which might be an explanation of corresponding rainfall response over the Indian Peninsula. Among 106-year historical run (1900-2005) of 9 state-of-the-art models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), HadGEM2-ES performs a promising skill in simulating the anomalous circulation pattern over mid-latitude and central-east Eurasia while CanESM2 cannot. Probably, it is the models' ability of capturing the mega-ENSO-ISR linkage and the characteristic of mega-ENSO that make the difference.

Future changes of interannual variation of the Asian summer monsoon precipitation using the CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamizawa, Nozomi; Takahashi, Hiroshi G.

2015-04-01

The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region is one of the most populated areas in the world. Since the life of people who live in the region and the industry are strongly dependent on the ASM precipitation, it is interested that how it would change under the circumstance of global warming. Many studies have reported that the mean ASM precipitation would increase by comparing the CMIP models' climatology. Although the changes in mean climate are important, the long-term changes of interannual variability in precipitation are also significant. This study investigated the long-term trend of interannual precipitation variation over the ASM region by using 22 CMIP5 models. The RCP4.5 scenario was used. To investigate the long-term trend of the interannual variation of the ASM precipitation, each model data was recreated to 2.5 degree resolution and a running standard deviation for 21 years of June-July-August (JJA) precipitation were calculated. Next, we created the coefficient variation (CV) by dividing the running standard deviation by the mean JJA precipitation. Then we run a Mann-Kendall test for the CV at each grid. There were more areas which were indicated a statistically significant increasing trend than a decreasing trend in the ASM region. 40.6% of the region indicated an increasing trend in the future. On the other hand, 16.8% of the area was indicated to have a decreasing trend. It was also common in the global scale that the there were more areas that indicated an increasing trend than a decreasing trend. We also divided the area into three groups: land, shore and open ocean. In the ASM region, the shore areas particularly had an increasing CV trend. To investigate the long-term changes of the interannual variability of the precipitation and the atmospheric circulation over the ASM region, we conducted a composite analysis for the five wettest and driest years for two periods: the early 21st century (2007-2031) and the late 21st century (2076-2100). The special patterns of the interannual variation of the precipitation and the atmospheric circulation between the two periods had differed only slightly. A positive deviation precipitation band with a cyclonic circulation was recognized from across the Bay of Bengal to the equatorial Northwest Pacific. The none-big-difference of the patterns may suggest that interannual variation in the ASM region would increase not because the pattern changes, but because the pattern's strength gets stronger or its frequency gets higher.

Regional climates in the GISS global circulation model - Synoptic-scale circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hewitson, B.; Crane, R. G.

1992-01-01

A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs) is their perceived inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global-scale change, and it is these regional-scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human-environmental response. For large areas of the extratropics, the local climate is controlled by the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation, and it is the purpose of this paper to evaluate the synoptic-scale circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. A methodology for validating the daily synoptic circulation using Principal Component Analysis is described, and the methodology is then applied to the GCM simulation of sea level pressure over the continental United States (excluding Alaska). The analysis demonstrates that the GISS 4 x 5 deg GCM Model II effectively simulates the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation over the United States. The modes of variance describing the atmospheric circulation of the model are comparable to those found in the observed data, and these modes explain similar amounts of variance in their respective datasets. The temporal behavior of these circulation modes in the synoptic time frame are also comparable.

Characteristics of atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme temperatures over North America in observations and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, Paul C.

Motivated by a desire to understand the physical mechanisms involved in future anthropogenic changes in extreme temperature events, the key atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme daily temperatures over North America in the current climate are identified. Several novel metrics are used to systematically identify and describe these patterns for the entire continent. The orientation, physical characteristics, and spatial scale of these circulation patterns vary based on latitude, season, and proximity to important geographic features (i.e., mountains, coastlines). The anomaly patterns associated with extreme cold events tend to be similar to, but opposite in sign of, those associated with extreme warm events, especially within the westerlies, and tend to scale with temperature in the same locations. The influence of the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern, the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on extreme temperature days and months shows that associations between extreme temperatures and the PNA and NAM are stronger than associations with ENSO. In general, the association with extremes tends to be stronger on monthly than daily time scales. Extreme temperatures are associated with the PNA and NAM in locations typically influenced by these circulation patterns; however many extremes still occur on days when the amplitude and polarity of these patterns do not favor their occurrence. In winter, synoptic-scale, transient weather disturbances are important drivers of extreme temperature days; however these smaller-scale events are often concurrent with amplified PNA or NAM patterns. Associations are weaker in summer when other physical mechanisms affecting the surface energy balance, such as anomalous soil moisture content, are associated with extreme temperatures. Analysis of historical runs from seventeen climate models from the CMIP5 database suggests that most models simulate realistic circulation patterns associated with extreme temperature days in most places. Model-simulated patterns tend to resemble observed patterns better in the winter than the summer and at 500 hPa than at the surface. There is substantial variability among the suite of models analyzed and most models simulate circulation patterns more realistically away from influential features such as large bodies of water and complex topography.

Multimillennium changes in dissolved oxygen under global warming: results from an AOGCM and offline ocean biogeochemical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, A.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Oka, A.; Takahashi, K.; Ohgaito, R.; Yamanaka, Y.

2016-12-01

Long-term oceanic oxygen change due to global warming is still unclear; most future projections (such as CMIP5) are only performed until 2100. Indeed, few previous studies using conceptual models project oxygen change in the next thousands of years, showing persistent global oxygen reduction by about 30% in the next 2000 years, even after atmospheric carbon dioxide stops rising. Yet, these models cannot sufficiently represent the ocean circulation change: the key driver of oxygen change. Moreover, considering serious effect oxygen reduction has on marine life and biogeochemical cycling, long-term oxygen change should be projected for higher validity. Therefore, we used a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and an offline ocean biogeochemical model, investigating realistic long-term changes in oceanic oxygen concentration and ocean circulation. We integrated these models for 2000 years under atmospheric CO2 doubling and quadrupling. After global oxygen reduction in the first 500 years, oxygen concentration in deep ocean globally recovers and overshoots, despite surface oxygen decrease and weaker Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Deep ocean convection in the Weddell Sea recovers and overshoots, after initial cessation. Thus, enhanced deep convection and associated Antarctic Bottom Water supply oxygen-rich surface waters to deep ocean, resulting global deep ocean oxygenation. We conclude that the change in ocean circulation in the Southern Ocean potentially drives millennial-scale oxygenation in the deep ocean; contrary to past reported long-term oxygen reduction and general expectation. In presentation, we will discuss the mechanism of response of deep ocean convection in the Weddell Sea and show the volume changes of hypoxic waters.

Epidemiological dynamics of norovirus GII.4 variant New Orleans 2009.

PubMed

Medici, Maria Cristina; Tummolo, Fabio; De Grazia, Simona; Calderaro, Adriana; De Conto, Flora; Terio, Valentina; Chironna, Maria; Bonura, Floriana; Pucci, Marzia; Bányai, Kristián; Martella, Vito; Giammanco, Giovanni Maurizio

2015-09-01

Norovirus (NoV) is one of the major causes of diarrhoeal disease with epidemic, outbreak and sporadic patterns in humans of all ages worldwide. NoVs of genotype GII.4 cause nearly 80-90 % of all NoV infections in humans. Periodically, some GII.4 strains become predominant, generating major pandemic variants. Retrospective analysis of the GII.4 NoV strains detected in Italy between 2007 and 2013 indicated that the pandemic variant New Orleans 2009 emerged in Italy in the late 2009, became predominant in 2010-2011 and continued to circulate in a sporadic fashion until April 2013. Upon phylogenetic analysis based on the small diagnostic regions A and C, the late New Orleans 2009 NoVs circulating during 2011-2013 appeared to be genetically different from the early New Orleans 2009 strains that circulated in 2010. For a selection of strains, a 3.2 kb genome portion at the 3' end was sequenced. In the partial ORF1 and in the full-length ORF2 and ORF3, the 2011-2013 New Orleans NoVs comprised at least three distinct genetic subclusters. By comparison with sequences retrieved from the databases, these subclusters were also found to circulate globally, suggesting that the local circulation reflected repeated introductions of different strains, rather than local selection of novel viruses. Phylogenetic subclustering did not correlate with changes in residues located in predicted putative capsid epitopes, although several changes affected the P2 domain in epitopes A, C, D and E.

Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dufresne, J.-L.; Foujols, M.-A.; Denvil, S.; Caubel, A.; Marti, O.; Aumont, O.; Balkanski, Y.; Bekki, S.; Bellenger, H.; Benshila, R.; Bony, S.; Bopp, L.; Braconnot, P.; Brockmann, P.; Cadule, P.; Cheruy, F.; Codron, F.; Cozic, A.; Cugnet, D.; de Noblet, N.; Duvel, J.-P.; Ethé, C.; Fairhead, L.; Fichefet, T.; Flavoni, S.; Friedlingstein, P.; Grandpeix, J.-Y.; Guez, L.; Guilyardi, E.; Hauglustaine, D.; Hourdin, F.; Idelkadi, A.; Ghattas, J.; Joussaume, S.; Kageyama, M.; Krinner, G.; Labetoulle, S.; Lahellec, A.; Lefebvre, M.-P.; Lefevre, F.; Levy, C.; Li, Z. X.; Lloyd, J.; Lott, F.; Madec, G.; Mancip, M.; Marchand, M.; Masson, S.; Meurdesoif, Y.; Mignot, J.; Musat, I.; Parouty, S.; Polcher, J.; Rio, C.; Schulz, M.; Swingedouw, D.; Szopa, S.; Talandier, C.; Terray, P.; Viovy, N.; Vuichard, N.

2013-05-01

We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.

Symmetry, Hopf bifurcation, and the emergence of cluster solutions in time delayed neural networks.

PubMed

Wang, Zhen; Campbell, Sue Ann

2017-11-01

We consider the networks of N identical oscillators with time delayed, global circulant coupling, modeled by a system of delay differential equations with Z N symmetry. We first study the existence of Hopf bifurcations induced by the coupling time delay and then use symmetric Hopf bifurcation theory to determine how these bifurcations lead to different patterns of symmetric cluster oscillations. We apply our results to a case study: a network of FitzHugh-Nagumo neurons with diffusive coupling. For this model, we derive the asymptotic stability, global asymptotic stability, absolute instability, and stability switches of the equilibrium point in the plane of coupling time delay (τ) and excitability parameter (a). We investigate the patterns of cluster oscillations induced by the time delay and determine the direction and stability of the bifurcating periodic orbits by employing the multiple timescales method and normal form theory. We find that in the region where stability switching occurs, the dynamics of the system can be switched from the equilibrium point to any symmetric cluster oscillation, and back to equilibrium point as the time delay is increased.

Vortex circulation patterns in planar microdisk arrays

DOE PAGES

Velten, Sven; Streubel, Robert; Farhan, Alan; ...

2017-06-26

We report a magnetic X-ray microscopy study of the pattern formation of circulation in arrays of magnetic vortices ordered in a hexagonal and a honeycomb lattice. In the honeycomb lattice, we observe at remanence an ordered phase of alternating circulations, whereas in the hexagonal lattice, small regions of alternating lines form. A variation in the edge-to-edge distance shows that the size of those regions scales with the magnetostatic interaction. Micromagnetic simulations reveal that the patterns result from the formation of flux closure states during the nucleation process.

Interannual variability of global dust storms on Mars.

PubMed

Haberle, R M

1986-10-24

Global dust storms on Mars occur in some years but not in others. If the four Mars years of Viking data are representative, some distinguishing characteristics can be inferred. In years with global dust storms, dust is raised in the southern hemisphere and spread over much of the planet by an intensified Hadley circulation. In years without global dust storms, dust is raised in the northern hemisphere by relatively active mid-latitude storm systems but does not spread globally. In both cases the dusty season is winter in the north. Assuming that the cross-equatorial Hadley circulation plays a key role in the onset of global dust storms, it is shown from numerical simulations that a northen hemisphere dust haze weakens its intensity and, hence, its contribution to the surface stress in the southern hemisphere. This, in turn, reduces the possibility of global dust storm development. The interannual variability is therefore the result either of a competition between circulations in opposite hemispheres, in which case the variability has a random component, or it is the result of the cycling of dust between hemispheres, in which case the variability is related to the characteristics of global dust storms themselves.

Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Soden, Brian J.; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Held, Isaac M.; Leetmaa, Ants; Harrison, Matthew J.

2006-05-01

Since the mid-nineteenth century the Earth's surface has warmed, and models indicate that human activities have caused part of the warming by altering the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Simple theories suggest that global warming will reduce the strength of the mean tropical atmospheric circulation. An important aspect of this tropical circulation is a large-scale zonal (east-west) overturning of air across the equatorial Pacific Ocean-driven by convection to the west and subsidence to the east-known as the Walker circulation. Here we explore changes in tropical Pacific circulation since the mid-nineteenth century using observations and a suite of global climate model experiments. Observed Indo-Pacific sea level pressure reveals a weakening of the Walker circulation. The size of this trend is consistent with theoretical predictions, is accurately reproduced by climate model simulations and, within the climate models, is largely due to anthropogenic forcing. The climate model indicates that the weakened surface winds have altered the thermal structure and circulation of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These results support model projections of further weakening of tropical atmospheric circulation during the twenty-first century.

Evaluation of rainfall simulations over West Africa in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 global circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akinsanola, A. A.; Ajayi, V. O.; Adejare, A. T.; Adeyeri, O. E.; Gbode, I. E.; Ogunjobi, K. O.; Nikulin, G.; Abolude, A. T.

2018-04-01

This study presents evaluation of the ability of Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4) driven by nine global circulation models (GCMs), to skilfully reproduce the key features of rainfall climatology over West Africa for the period of 1980-2005. The seasonal climatology and annual cycle of the RCA4 simulations were assessed over three homogenous subregions of West Africa (Guinea coast, Savannah, and Sahel) and evaluated using observed precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Furthermore, the model output was evaluated using a wide range of statistical measures. The interseasonal and interannual variability of the RCA4 were further assessed over the subregions and the whole of the West Africa domain. Results indicate that the RCA4 captures the spatial and interseasonal rainfall pattern adequately but exhibits a weak performance over the Guinea coast. Findings from the interannual rainfall variability indicate that the model performance is better over the larger West Africa domain than the subregions. The largest difference across the RCA4 simulated annual rainfall was found in the Sahel. Result from the Mann-Kendall test showed no significant trend for the 1980-2005 period in annual rainfall either in GPCP observation data or in the model simulations over West Africa. In many aspects, the RCA4 simulation driven by the HadGEM2-ES perform best over the region. The use of the multimodel ensemble mean has resulted to the improved representation of rainfall characteristics over the study domain.

Global QBO in circulation and ozone. Part 1: Reexamination of observational evidence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tung, K. K.; Yang, H.

1994-01-01

Observational evidence for a global quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) pattern is reviewed. In particular, the presence of an extratropical, as well as an equatorial, component of the QBO signal in column ozone is established. It is found that the ozone interannual variability is such that as one moves away from the Tropics, the frequency spectrum of the anomaly changes from one that is dominated by the equatorial QBO frequency of 1/30 mo to a two-peak spectrum around the two frequencies: 1/30 mo and 1/20 mo. Instead of treating the 1/20 mo frequency as a separate phenomenon to be filtered away in extracting the QBO in the extratropics, as was previously done, the authors argue that both peaks are integral parts of the extratropical QBO phenomenon. The 1/20 mo frequency happens to be the difference combination of the QBO frequency 1/30 mo and the annual frequency 1/12 mo. Therefore, it can represent the result of the QBO modulating an annual cycle. The authors suggest that previous methods of extracting the extratropical QBO signal severely underestimated the contribution of the QBO to the interannual variability of ozone when data are filtered to pass only the component with the period of equatorial QBO. Further, it is argued that the transport of equatorial QBO ozone anomaly by a non-QBO circulation can at most account for 6-8 Dobson units (DU) of the observed interannual variability of column ozone in the extratropics. The remaining variability (up to 20 DU) probably cannot be produced without an anomaly in the transporting circulation in the extratropics.

Tropical Atlantic-Korea teleconnection pattern during boreal summer season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Kug, Jong-Seong; Kimoto, Masahide; Mochizuki, Takashi

2017-10-01

The remote impact of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability on Korean summer precipitation is examined based on observational data analysis along with the idealized and hindcast model experiments. Observations show a significant correlation (i.e. 0.64) between Korean precipitation anomalies (averaged over 120-130°E, 35-40°N) and the tropical Atlantic SST index (averaged over 60°W-20°E, 30°S-30°N) during the June-July-August (JJA) season for the 1979-2010 period. Our observational analysis and partial-data assimilation experiments using the coupled general circulation model demonstrate that tropical Atlantic SST warming induces the equatorial low-level easterly over the western Pacific through a reorganization of the global Walker Circulation, causing a decreased precipitation over the off-equatorial western Pacific. As a Gill-type response to this diabatic forcing, an anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation appears over the Philippine Sea, which transports wet air from the tropics to East Asia through low-level southerly, resulting an enhanced precipitation in the Korean peninsula. Multi-model hindcast experiments also show that predictive skills of Korean summer precipitation are improved by utilizing predictions of tropical Atlantic SST anomalies as a predictor for Korean precipitation anomalies.

The role of zonally asymmetric heating in the vertical and temporal structure of the global scale flow fields during FGGE SOP-1. [First Global Atmospheric Research Program Global Experiment (FGGE); Special Observing Period (SOP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paegle, J.; Kalnay-Rivas, E.; Baker, W. E.

1981-01-01

By examining the vertical structure of the low order spherical harmonics of the divergence and vorticity fields, the relative contribution of tropical and monsoonal circulations upon the global wind fields was estimated. This indicates that the overall flow over North America and the Pacific between January and February is quite distinct both in the lower and upper troposphere. In these longitudes there is a stronger tropical overturning and subtropical jet stream in January than February. The divergent flow reversed between 850 and 200 mb. Poleward rotational flow at upper levels is associated with an equatorward rotational flow at low levels. This suggests that the monsoon and other tropical circulations project more amplitude upon low order (global scale) representations of the flow than do the typical midlatitude circulations and that their structures show conspicuous changes on a time scale of a week or less.

Inferring influenza global transmission networks without complete phylogenetic information

PubMed Central

Aris-Brosou, Stéphane

2014-01-01

Influenza is one of the most severe respiratory infections affecting humans throughout the world, yet the dynamics of its global transmission network are still contentious. Here, I describe a novel combination of phylogenetics, time series, and graph theory to analyze 14.25 years of data stratified in space and in time, focusing on the main target of the human immune response, the hemagglutinin gene. While bypassing the complete phylogenetic inference of huge data sets, the method still extracts information suggesting that waves of genetic or of nucleotide diversity circulate continuously around the globe for subtypes that undergo sustained transmission over several seasons, such as H3N2 and pandemic H1N1/09, while diversity of prepandemic H1N1 viruses had until 2009 a noncontinuous transmission pattern consistent with a source/sink model. Irrespective of the shift in the structure of H1N1 diversity circulation with the emergence of the pandemic H1N1/09 strain, US prevalence peaks during the winter months when genetic diversity is at its lowest. This suggests that a dominant strain is generally responsible for epidemics and that monitoring genetic and/or nucleotide diversity in real time could provide public health agencies with an indirect estimate of prevalence. PMID:24665342

Non-hydrostatic general circulation model of the Venus atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodin, Alexander V.; Mingalev, Igor; Orlov, Konstantin; Ignatiev, Nikolay

We present the first non-hydrostatic global circulation model of the Venus atmosphere based on the complete set of gas dynamics equations. The model employs a spatially uniform triangular mesh that allows to avoid artificial damping of the dynamical processes in the polar regions, with altitude as a vertical coordinate. Energy conversion from the solar flux into atmospheric motion is described via explicitly specified heating and cooling rates or, alternatively, with help of the radiation block based on comprehensive treatment of the Venus atmosphere spectroscopy, including line mixing effects in CO2 far wing absorption. Momentum equations are integrated using the semi-Lagrangian explicit scheme that provides high accuracy of mass and energy conservation. Due to high vertical grid resolution required by gas dynamics calculations, the model is integrated on the short time step less than one second. The model reliably repro-duces zonal superrotation, smoothly extending far below the cloud layer, tidal patterns at the cloud level and above, and non-rotating, sun-synchronous global convective cell in the upper atmosphere. One of the most interesting features of the model is the development of the polar vortices resembling those observed by Venus Express' VIRTIS instrument. Initial analysis of the simulation results confirms the hypothesis that it is thermal tides that provides main driver for the superrotation.

Where do winds come from? A new theory on how water vapor condensation influences atmospheric pressure and dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makarieva, A. M.; Gorshkov, V. G.; Sheil, D.; Nobre, A. D.; Li, B.-L.

2013-01-01

Phase transitions of atmospheric water play a ubiquitous role in the Earth's climate system, but their direct impact on atmospheric dynamics has escaped wide attention. Here we examine and advance a theory as to how condensation influences atmospheric pressure through the mass removal of water from the gas phase with a simultaneous account of the latent heat release. Building from fundamental physical principles we show that condensation is associated with a decline in air pressure in the lower atmosphere. This decline occurs up to a certain height, which ranges from 3 to 4 km for surface temperatures from 10 to 30 °C. We then estimate the horizontal pressure differences associated with water vapor condensation and find that these are comparable in magnitude with the pressure differences driving observed circulation patterns. The water vapor delivered to the atmosphere via evaporation represents a store of potential energy available to accelerate air and thus drive winds. Our estimates suggest that the global mean power at which this potential energy is released by condensation is around one per cent of the global solar power - this is similar to the known stationary dissipative power of general atmospheric circulation. We conclude that condensation and evaporation merit attention as major, if previously overlooked, factors in driving atmospheric dynamics.

Simulating the Agulhas system in global ocean models - nesting vs. multi-resolution unstructured meshes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biastoch, Arne; Sein, Dmitry; Durgadoo, Jonathan V.; Wang, Qiang; Danilov, Sergey

2018-01-01

Many questions in ocean and climate modelling require the combined use of high resolution, global coverage and multi-decadal integration length. For this combination, even modern resources limit the use of traditional structured-mesh grids. Here we compare two approaches: A high-resolution grid nested into a global model at coarser resolution (NEMO with AGRIF) and an unstructured-mesh grid (FESOM) which allows to variably enhance resolution where desired. The Agulhas system around South Africa is used as a testcase, providing an energetic interplay of a strong western boundary current and mesoscale dynamics. Its open setting into the horizontal and global overturning circulations also requires global coverage. Both model configurations simulate a reasonable large-scale circulation. Distribution and temporal variability of the wind-driven circulation are quite comparable due to the same atmospheric forcing. However, the overturning circulation differs, owing each model's ability to represent formation and spreading of deep water masses. In terms of regional, high-resolution dynamics, all elements of the Agulhas system are well represented. Owing to the strong nonlinearity in the system, Agulhas Current transports of both configurations and in comparison with observations differ in strength and temporal variability. Similar decadal trends in Agulhas Current transport and Agulhas leakage are linked to the trends in wind forcing.

Variable features on Mars. II - Mariner 9 global results.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sagan, C.; Veverka, J.; Fox, P.; Dubisch, F.; French, R.; Gierasch, P.; Quam, L.; Lederberg, J.; Levinthal, E.; Pollack, J. B.

1973-01-01

Systematic Mariner 9 monitoring of the space and time distribution of Martian bright and dark markings, the streaks and splotches, indicates a range of global correlations. The time-variable classical dark markings owe their configurations and variability to their constituent streaks and splotches, produced by windblown dust. Streaks and splotches are consistent wind direction indicators. Correlation of global streak patterns with general circulation models shows that velocities of about 50 to 90 m/sec above the boundary layer are necessary to initiate grain motion on the surface and to produce streaks and splotches. Detailed examples of changes in Syrtis Major, Lunae Palus, and Promethei Sinus are generally consistent with removal of bright sand and dust and uncovering of darker underlying material as the active agent in such changes, although dark mobile material probably also exists on Mars. The generation of streaks and the progressive albedo changes observed require only threshold velocities of about 2 m/sec for about 1 day at the grain surface.

The Climate Science Special Report: Arctic Changes and their Effect on Alaska and the Rest of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, P. C.

2017-12-01

Rapid and visible climate change is happening across the Arctic, outpacing global change. Annual average near-surface air temperatures across the Arctic are increasing at more than twice the rate of global average surface temperature. In addition to surface temperature, all components of the Arctic climate system are responding in kind, including sea ice, mountain glaciers and the Greenland Ice sheet, snow cover, and permafrost. Many of these changes with a discernable anthropogenic imprint. While Arctic climate change may seem physically remote to those living in other regions of the planet, Arctic climate change can affect the global climate influencing sea level, the carbon cycle, and potentially atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. As an Arctic nation, United States' adaptation, mitigation, and policy decisions depend on projections of future Alaskan and Arctic climate. This chapter of the Climate Science Special Report documents significant scientific progress and knowledge about how the Alaskan and Arctic climate has changed and will continue to change.

On the evaluation of global sea-salt aerosol models at coastal/orographic sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spada, M.; Jorba, O.; Pérez García-Pando, C.; Janjic, Z.; Baldasano, J. M.

2015-01-01

Sea-salt aerosol global models are typically evaluated against concentration observations at coastal stations that are unaffected by local surf conditions and thus considered representative of open ocean conditions. Despite recent improvements in sea-salt source functions, studies still show significant model errors in specific regions. Using a multiscale model, we investigated the effect of high model resolution (0.1° × 0.1° vs. 1° × 1.4°) upon sea-salt patterns in four stations from the University of Miami Network: Baring Head, Chatam Island, and Invercargill in New Zealand, and Marion Island in the sub-antarctic Indian Ocean. Normalized biases improved from +63.7% to +3.3% and correlation increased from 0.52 to 0.84. The representation of sea/land interfaces, mesoscale circulations, and precipitation with the higher resolution model played a major role in the simulation of annual concentration trends. Our results recommend caution when comparing or constraining global models using surface concentration observations from coastal stations.

South Atlantic meridional transports from NEMO-based simulations and reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mignac, Davi; Ferreira, David; Haines, Keith

2018-02-01

The meridional heat transport (MHT) of the South Atlantic plays a key role in the global heat budget: it is the only equatorward basin-scale ocean heat transport and it sets the northward direction of the global cross-equatorial transport. Its strength and variability, however, are not well known. The South Atlantic transports are evaluated for four state-of-the-art global ocean reanalyses (ORAs) and two free-running models (FRMs) in the period 1997-2010. All products employ the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Oceans (NEMO) model, and the ORAs share very similar configurations. Very few previous works have looked at ocean circulation patterns in reanalysis products, but here we show that the ORA basin interior transports are consistently improved by the assimilated in situ and satellite observations relative to the FRMs, especially in the Argo period. The ORAs also exhibit systematically higher meridional transports than the FRMs, which is in closer agreement with observational estimates at 35 and 11° S. However, the data assimilation impact on the meridional transports still greatly varies among the ORAs, leading to differences up to ˜ 8 Sv and 0.4 PW in the South Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the MHTs, respectively. We narrow this down to large inter-product discrepancies in the western boundary currents (WBCs) at both upper and deep levels explaining up to ˜ 85 % of the inter-product differences in MHT. We show that meridional velocity differences, rather than temperature differences, in the WBCs drive ˜ 83 % of this MHT spread. These findings show that the present ocean observation network and data assimilation schemes can be used to consistently constrain the South Atlantic interior circulation but not the overturning component, which is dominated by the narrow western boundary currents. This will likely limit the effectiveness of ORA products for climate or decadal prediction studies.

Maximum Drawdown of Atmospheric CO2 due to Biological Uptake in the Ocean and the Ocean Temperature Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odalen, M.; Nycander, J.; Oliver, K. I. C.; Nilsson, J.; Brodeau, L.; Ridgwell, A.

2016-02-01

During glacials, atmospheric CO2 is significantly lowered; the decrease is about 1/3 or 90 ppm during the last four glacial cycles. Since the ocean reservoir of carbon, and hence the ocean capacity for storing carbon, is substantially larger than the atmospheric and terrestrial counterparts, it is likely that this lowering was caused by ocean processes, drawing the CO2 into the deep ocean. The Southern Ocean circulation and biological efficiency are widely accepted as having played an important part in this CO2 drawdown. However, the relative effects of different processes contributing to this oceanic uptake have not yet been well constrained. In this work, we focus on better constraining two of these processes; 1) the effect of increased efficiency of the biological carbon uptake, and 2) the effect of changes in global mean ocean temperature on the abiotic ocean-atmosphere CO2 equilibrium. By performing ensemble runs using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) we examine the changes in atmospheric pCO2 achieved by 100% nutrient utilization efficiency of biology. The simulations display different ocean circulation patterns and hence different global ocean mean temperatures. By restoring the atmospheric pCO2 to a target value during the spin-up phase, the total carbon content differs between each of the ensemble members. The difference is due to circulation having direct effects on biology, but also on global ocean mean temperature, changing the solubility of CO2. This study reveals the relative importance of of the processes 1 and 2 (mentioned above) for atmospheric pCO2 in a changed climate. The results of this study also show that a difference in carbon content after spin-up can have a significant effect on the drawdown potential of a maximised biological efficiency. Thus, the choice of spin-up characteristics in a model study of climate change CO2 dynamics may significantly affect the outcome of the study.

Does the vorticity flux from Agulhas rings control the zonal pathway of NADW across the South Atlantic?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Sebille, Erik; Johns, William E.; Beal, Lisa M.

2012-05-01

As part of the global thermohaline circulation, some North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) exits the Atlantic basin to the south of Africa. Observations have shown that there is a quasi-zonal pathway centered at 25°S carrying NADW eastward, connecting the Deep Western Boundary Current to the Cape Basin. However, it has been unclear what sets this pathway. In particular, waters must move southward through the Cape Basin, thereby crossing isolines of planetary vorticity, in order to exit the basin. Here, we find that an eddy thickness flux induced by Agulhas rings moving northwestward forces a circulation of NADW through the Cape Basin. The pathway at 25°S feeds the southeastward flow of this circulation while conserving potential vorticity. Using Lagrangian floats advected for 300 years in a 1/10° resolution ocean model, we show that the most common pathway for NADW in our model lies directly below the Agulhas ring corridor. By analyzing the velocity and density fields in the model, we find that the decay of these rings, and their forward tilt with depth, results in a southward velocity, across isolines of planetary vorticity, of 1 to 2 cm/s in the deep waters. The associated stream function pattern yields a deep circulation transporting 4 Sv of NADW from the Deep Western Boundary Current at 25°S to the southern tip of Africa.

Effects of land cover change on the tropical circulation in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jonko, Alexandra Karolina; Hense, Andreas; Feddema, Johannes Jan

2010-09-01

Multivariate statistics are used to investigate sensitivity of the tropical atmospheric circulation to scenario-based global land cover change (LCC), with the largest changes occurring in the tropics. Three simulations performed with the fully coupled Parallel Climate Model (PCM) are compared: (1) a present day control run; (2) a simulation with present day land cover and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 greenhouse gas (GHG) projections; and (3) a simulation with SRES A2 land cover and GHG projections. Dimensionality of PCM data is reduced by projection onto a priori specified eigenvectors, consisting of Rossby and Kelvin waves produced by a linearized, reduced gravity model of the tropical circulation. A Hotelling T 2 test is performed on projection amplitudes. Effects of LCC evaluated by this method are limited to diabatic heating. A statistically significant and recurrent signal is detected for 33% of all tests performed for various combinations of parameters. Taking into account uncertainties and limitations of the present methodology, this signal can be interpreted as a Rossby wave response to prescribed LCC. The Rossby waves are shallow, large-scale motions, trapped at the equator and most pronounced in boreal summer. Differences in mass and flow fields indicate a shift of the tropical Walker circulation patterns with an anomalous subsidence over tropical South America.

Impact of Data Assimilation And Resolution On Modeling The Gulf Stream Pathway

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-18

currents could be generated by either the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) associated with the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) or by...abyssal gyre centered directly beneath the surface gyre. Figure 7. Meridional overturning circulation stream function for four 1/12° global HYCOM... circulation and have a weak overturning circulation . The Gulf Stream path is poorly simulated without the steering by the abyssal circulation . A

Initial results from the StratoClim aircraft campaign in the Asian Monsoon in summer 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rex, M.

2017-12-01

The Asian Monsoon System is one of the Earth's largest and most energetic weather systems. Monsoon rainfall is critical to feeding over a billion people in Asia and the monsoon circulation affects weather patterns over the entire northern hemisphere. The Monsoon also acts like an enormous elevator, pumping vast amounts of air and pollutants from the surface up to the tropopause region at levels above 16km altitude, from where air can ascend into the stratosphere, where it spreads globally. Thus the monsoon affects the chemical composition of the global tropopause region and the stratosphere, and hence plays a key role for the composition of the UTS. Dynamically the monsoon circulation leads to the formation of a large anticyclone at tropopause levels above South Asia - the Asian Monsoon Anticyclone (AMA). Satellite images show a large cloud of aerosols directly above the monsoon, the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL). In July to August 2017 the international research project StratoClim carried out the first in-situ aircraft measurements in the AMA and the ATAL with the high altitude research aircraft M55-Geophysica. Around 8 scientific flights took place in the airspaces of Nepal, India and Bangladesh and have horizontally and vertically probed the AMA and have well characterized the ATAL along flight patterns that have been carefully designed by a theory, modelling and satellite data analysing team in the field. The aircraft campaign has been complemented by launches of research balloons from ground stations in Nepal, Bangladesh, China and Palau. The presentation will give an overview of the StratoClim project, the aircraft and balloon activities and initial results from the StratoClim Asian Monsoon campaign in summer 2017.

The influence of continental ice, atmospheric CO2, and land albedo on the climate of the last glacial maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broccoli, A. J.; Manabe, S.

1987-02-01

The contributions of expanded continental ice, reduced atmospheric CO2, and changes in land albedo to the maintenance of the climate of the last glacial maximum (LGM) are examined. A series of experiments is performed using an atmosphere-mixed layer ocean model in which these changes in boundary conditions are incorporated either singly or in combination. The model used has been shown to produce a reasonably realistic simulation of the reduced temperature of the LGM (Manabe and Broccoli 1985b). By comparing the results from pairs of experiments, the effects of each of these environmental changes can be determined. Expanded continental ice and reduced atmospheric CO2 are found to have a substantial impact on global mean temperature. The ice sheet effect is confined almost exclusively to the Northern Hemisphere, while lowered CO2 cools both hemispheres. Changes in land albedo over ice-free areas have only a minor thermal effect on a global basis. The reduction of CO2 content in the atmosphere is the primary contributor to the cooling of the Southern Hemisphere. The model sensitivity to both the ice sheet and CO2 effects is characterized by a high latitude amplification and a late autumn and early winter maximum. Substantial changes in Northern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation are found in response to LGM boundary conditions during winter. An amplified flow pattern and enhanced westerlies occur in the vicinity of the North American and Eurasian ice sheets. These alterations of the tropospheric circulation are primarily the result of the ice sheet effect, with reduced CO2 contributing only a slight amplification of the ice sheet-induced pattern.

Global warming and tropical Pacific sea surface temperature: Why models and observations do not agree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coats, Sloan; Karnauskas, Kristopher

2017-04-01

The pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean provides an important control on global climate, necessitating an understanding of how this pattern will change in response to anthropogenic radiative forcing. State-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) overwhelmingly project a decrease in the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient over the coming century. This decrease is, in part, a response of the ocean to a weakening Walker circulation in the CMIP5 models, a consequence of the mass and energy balances of the hydrologic cycle identified by Held and Soden (2006). CMIP5 models, however, are not able to reproduce the observed increase in the zonal SST gradient between 1900-2013 C.E., which we argue to be robust using advanced statistical techniques and new observational datasets. While this increase is suggestive of the ocean dynamical thermostat mechanism of Clement et al. (1996), we provide evidence that a strengthening Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) also contributes to eastern equatorial Pacific cooling. Importantly, the strengthening EUC is a response of the ocean to a weakening Walker circulation and thus can help to reconcile the range of opposing theories and observations of anthropogenic climate change in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Because of a newly identified bias in their simulation of equatorial coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamics, however, CMIP5 models do not capture the magnitude of the response of the EUC to anthropogenic radiative forcing. Consequently, they project a continuation of the opposite to what has been observed in the real world, with potentially serious consequences for projected climate impacts that are influenced by the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Global warming and South Indian monsoon rainfall-lessons from the Mid-Miocene.

PubMed

Reuter, Markus; Kern, Andrea K; Harzhauser, Mathias; Kroh, Andreas; Piller, Werner E

2013-04-01

Precipitation over India is driven by the Indian monsoon. Although changes in this atmospheric circulation are caused by the differential seasonal diabatic heating of Asia and the Indo-Pacific Ocean, it is so far unknown how global warming influences the monsoon rainfalls regionally. Herein, we present a Miocene pollen flora as the first direct proxy for monsoon over southern India during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum. To identify climatic key parameters, such as mean annual temperature, warmest month temperature, coldest month temperature, mean annual precipitation, mean precipitation during the driest month, mean precipitation during the wettest month and mean precipitation during the warmest month the Coexistence Approach is applied. Irrespective of a ~ 3-4 °C higher global temperature during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum, the results indicate a modern-like monsoonal precipitation pattern contrasting marine proxies which point to a strong decline of Indian monsoon in the Himalaya at this time. Therefore, the strength of monsoon rainfall in tropical India appears neither to be related to global warming nor to be linked with the atmospheric conditions over the Tibetan Plateau. For the future it implies that increased global warming does not necessarily entail changes in the South Indian monsoon rainfall.

The strength of the meridional overturning circulation of the stratosphere

PubMed Central

Linz, Marianna; Plumb, R. Alan; Gerber, Edwin P.; Haenel, Florian J.; Stiller, Gabriele; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Ming, Alison; Neu, Jessica L.

2017-01-01

The distribution of gases such as ozone and water vapour in the stratosphere — which affect surface climate — is influenced by the meridional overturning of mass in the stratosphere, the Brewer–Dobson circulation. However, observation-based estimates of its global strength are difficult to obtain. Here we present two calculations of the mean strength of the meridional overturning of the stratosphere. We analyze satellite data that document the global diabatic circulation between 2007– 2011, and compare these to three re-analysis data sets and to simulations with a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model. Using measurements of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) and nitrous oxide, we calculate the global mean diabatic overturning mass flux throughout the stratosphere. In the lower stratosphere, these two estimates agree, and at a potential temperature level of 460 K (about 20 km or 60 hPa in tropics), the global circulation strength is 6.3–7.6 × 109 kg/s. Higher in the atmosphere, only the SF6-based estimate is available, and it diverges from the re-analysis data and simulations. Interpretation of the SF6 data-based estimate is limited because of a mesospheric sink of SF6; however, the reanalyses also differ substantially from each other. We conclude that the uncertainty in the mean meridional overturning circulation strength at upper levels of the stratosphere amounts to at least 100 %. PMID:28966661

Applications of HCMM data to soil moisture snow and estuarine current studies. [Cooper River and Delaware Bay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiesnet, D. R. (Principal Investigator); Mcginnis, D. F.; Matson, M.

1980-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The HCMM thermal data are useful for monitoring estuarine surface thermal patterns. Estuarine thermal patterns, are, under certain conditions, indicative of the surface tidal current circulation patterns. Under optimum conditions, estuaries as small as the Cooper River (i.e., approximately 100 sq km) can be monitored for tidal/thermal circulation patterns by HCMM-type IR sensors.

Syncope

MedlinePlus

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Cenozoic Circulation History of the North Atlantic Ocean From Seismic Stratigraphy of the Newfoundland Ridge Drift Complex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyle, P. R.; Romans, B.; Norris, R. D.; Tucholke, B. E.; Swift, S. A.; Sexton, P. F.

2014-12-01

In the North Atlantic Ocean, contour-following bottom currents have eroded regional unconformities and deposited contourite drifts that exceed two km in thickness and extend for 100s of km. The character of deep-water masses that are conveyed through ocean basins by such currents influence global heat transfer and ocean-atmosphere partitioning of CO2. The Newfoundland Ridge Drift Complex lies directly under the modern Deep Western Boundary Current southeast of Newfoundland, close to the site of overturning in the northwest Atlantic Ocean and at the intersection of the warm Gulf Stream and cool Labrador surface currents. To the south are regions of the western North Atlantic basin that are influenced by southern- as well as northern-sourced bottom waters. Here, we document the evolution of North Atlantic deep-water circulation by seismic-stratigraphic analysis of the long-lived and areally extensive Newfoundland Ridge Drift Complex. IODP Expedition 342 boreholes provide age control on seismic units, allowing sedimentation patterns to be placed in a temporal framework. We find three major phases of sedimentation: pre-contourite drift (~115-50 Ma), active contourite drift (~50-2.6 Ma), and late-contourite drift (~2.6-0 Ma). Bottom-current-controlled deposition of terrigenous-rich sediment began at ~50 Ma, which correlates to the onset of a long-term global cooling trend. A further change in deep circulation near the Eocene-Oligocene transition (~30 Ma) is indicated by more focused drift sedimentation with greatly increased accumulation rates and stratal architecture dominated by mud waves. At ~2.6 Ma to present the axis of drift accumulation shifted markedly towards shallower water depths, corresponding with the onset of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. We discuss how these reorganizations of deep circulation correlate with results of other North Atlantic seismic stratigraphic studies to the north and south.

Subseasonal forecast skills and biases of global summer monsoons in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiangwen; Yang, Song; Li, Qiaoping; Kumar, Arun; Weaver, Scott; Liu, Shi

2014-03-01

Subseasonal forecast skills and biases of global summer monsoons are diagnosed using daily data from the hindcasts of 45-day integrations by the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. Predictions for subseasonal variability of zonal wind and precipitation are generally more skillful over the Asian and Australian monsoon regions than other monsoon regions. Climatologically, forecasts for the variations of dynamical monsoon indices have high skills at leads of about 2 weeks. However, apparent interannual differences exist, with high skills up to 5 weeks in exceptional cases. Comparisons for the relationships of monsoon indices with atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns between skillful and unskillful forecasts indicate that skills for subseasonal variability of a monsoon index depend partially on the degree to which the observed variability of the index attributes to the variation of large-scale circulation. Thus, predictions are often more skillful when the index is closely linked to atmospheric circulation over a broad region than over a regional and narrow range. It is also revealed that, the subseasonal variations of biases of winds, precipitation, and surface temperature over various monsoon regions are captured by a first mode with seasonally independent biases and a second mode with apparent phase transition of biases during summer. The first mode indicates the dominance of overall weaker-than-observed summer monsoons over major monsoon regions. However, at certain stages of monsoon evolution, these underestimations are regionally offset or intensified by the time evolving biases portrayed by the second mode. This feature may be partially related to factors such as the shifts of subtropical highs and intertropical convergence zones, the reversal of biases of surface temperature over some monsoon regions, and the transition of regional circulation system. The significant geographical differences in bias growth with increasing lead time reflect the distinctions of initial memory capability of the climate system over different monsoon regions.

Sensitivity of the atmospheric water cycle to corrections of the sea surface temperature bias over southern Africa in a regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, Torsten; Haensler, Andreas; Jacob, Daniela

2017-12-01

Regional climate models (RCMs) have been used to dynamically downscale global climate projections at high spatial and temporal resolution in order to analyse the atmospheric water cycle. In southern Africa, precipitation pattern were strongly affected by the moisture transport from the southeast Atlantic and southwest Indian Ocean and, consequently, by their sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, global ocean models often have deficiencies in resolving regional to local scale ocean currents, e.g. in ocean areas offshore the South African continent. By downscaling global climate projections using RCMs, the biased SSTs from the global forcing data were introduced to the RCMs and affected the results of regional climate projections. In this work, the impact of the SST bias correction on precipitation, evaporation and moisture transport were analysed over southern Africa. For this analysis, several experiments were conducted with the regional climate model REMO using corrected and uncorrected SSTs. In these experiments, a global MPI-ESM-LR historical simulation was downscaled with the regional climate model REMO to a high spatial resolution of 50 × 50 km2 and of 25 × 25 km2 for southern Africa using a double-nesting method. The results showed a distinct impact of the corrected SST on the moisture transport, the meridional vertical circulation and on the precipitation pattern in southern Africa. Furthermore, it was found that the experiment with the corrected SST led to a reduction of the wet bias over southern Africa and to a better agreement with observations as without SST bias corrections.

A numerical study of circulation in the Gulf of Riga, Baltic Sea. Part I: Whole-basin gyres and mean currents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lips, Urmas; Zhurbas, Victor; Skudra, Maris; Väli, Germo

2016-01-01

A regional model of the Gulf of Riga (GoR) with horizontal grid spacing of 0.5 nautical miles was applied to study the features and driving forces of the whole-basin circulation in the GoR. The initial conditions and atmospheric forcing were taken from the operational models High Resolution Operational Model for the Baltic (HIROMB) and High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM), respectively. The wind stress curl is shown to be a major contributor to the whole-basin circulation pattern. An anticyclonic circulation pattern in the summer is determined by a combined effect of the negative wind stress curl, thermal density stratification and bottom topography. Positive values of the wind stress curl and a cyclonic circulation pattern prevail during the cold period of the year when seasonal thermocline is absent. During calm periods, the anticyclonic type of circulation is established due to a combined effect of the river runoff, saltier water inflow into and mixed water outflow from the GoR. Two seasonal baroclinic jet-like currents are identified in the summer: the Northward Longshore Current in the western GoR and Southward Subsurface Longshore Current in the eastern GoR. The alteration of the circulation pattern in the GoR from cyclonic in the cold period of the year to anticyclonic in the summer, and vice versa, was shown to be observed not every year due to inter-annual variability of wind forcing.

Wind streaks in Tharsis and Elysium - Implications for sediment transport by slope winds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, S. W.; Thomas, P. C.; Veverka, J.

1982-11-01

Detailed maps of wind streaks in Tharsis and Elysium have been compiled from Viking Orbiter observations spanning one complete Martian year. The streak pattern is controlled by slope winds on the central volcanoes and on the flanks of the Tharsis bulge, while the global circulation dominates in Elysium. Dust erosion by downslope winds occurs over much of Tharsis and in the vicinity of Elysium Mons; this process is effective even at the low atmospheric pressures found near the summits of the large volcanoes. Erosional streaks are largely absent in Elysium Planitia; net deposition of dust might have occurred during the period of the observations. Surface properties such as slope, thermal inertia, and roughness may influence the efficiency of slope wind production sufficiently to account for the pronounced differences in streak types and patterns present in these two regions.

Early concepts and charts of ocean circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, R. G.; Stramma, L.; Kortum, G.

Charts of ocean currents from the late nineteenth century show that already by then the patterns of surface circulation in regions away from polar latitudes were well understood. This fundamental knowledge accumulated gradually through centuries of sea travel and had reached a state of near correctness by the time dedicated research cruises, full-depth measurements and the practical application of the dynamical method were being instituted. Perhaps because of the foregoing, many of the pioneering works, critical to establishing what the upper-level circulation is like, the majority of the charts accompanying them, and several of the groundbreaking theoretical treatments on the physics of currents, are only poorly known to present-day oceanographers. In this paper we trace Western developments in knowledge and understanding of ocean circulation from the earliest times to the late-1800s transition into the modern era. We also discuss certain peripheral advances that proved critical to the subject. The earliest known ideas, dating from the Bronze Age and described by Homer, necessarily reflect severe limitations to geographical knowledge, as well as basic human predilections toward conjecture and exaggeration in the face of inadequate information. People considered the earth to be flat and circular, with the ocean flowing like a river around it. They also believed in horrific whirlpools, a concept that persisted into the Renaissance and which would later provide subject material for modern literature. From the Greek Classical Age, we find hydrologic theories of Earth's interior being laced with subterranean channels (Socrates) and all motion deriving from a divine force forever propelling the heavens toward the west, the primum mobile (Aristotle). These ideas, particularly the latter, dominated opinions about ocean circulation into the late Renaissance. By late Antiquity mariners had very likely acquired intimate knowledge of coastal currents in the Mediterranean, but little about them was reported in the Classical works. Following the dark and Middle Ages, when little progress was made, the voyages of discovery brought startling observations of many of Earth's most important ocean currents, such as the North and South Equatorial currents, the Gulf Stream, the Agulhas, Kuroshio, Peru, and Guinea currents, and others. The Gulf Stream appears to have been mapped as early as 1525 (Ribeiro) on the basis of Spanish pilot charts. Some currents were found to be westward, in the direction of the primum mobile as expected by theologians and philosophers, while others were not. The fifteenth through seventeenth centuries were marked by attainments of knowledge that increasingly taxed the abilities of science writers to reconcile new information with accepted doctrine. Consequences of this were descriptions of ocean circulation that questioned doctrine, yet were limited by it (Martyr; Gilbert; Bourne; Varen), while other descriptions disdainfully violated observation (Kircher; Happel). The expectation of a continuous westward oceanic flow around Earth in the direction of the primum mobile was so pervasive that it became central to arguments about a need for a passage through or around the Canadian north, and thus weighed significantly on the exploration and mapping of North America. Religious influences and the conceptual importance of the primum mobile waned by the close of the Renaissance and wind came to be seen as the primary cause of ocean currents (Dampier). The Gulf Stream (Franklin) and other North Atlantic flow patterns (de Brahm), as well as the southern Agulhas Current (Rennell), were mapped in the mid-to-late eighteenth century. Significant advances beyond these in determining the global ocean circulation came only after the routine determination of longitude at sea was instituted. The introduction of the marine chronometer in the late eighteenth century (Harrison) made this possible. By the end of the eighteenth century it was realized that water is a poor conductor of heat and, unlike that of freshwater, the density of seawater continues to increase as it is cooled to its freezing point; the far-reaching significance of the implied vertical convection and deep circulation of the ocean on the moderation of climate was immediately clear (Rumford), though observations were available almost exclusively from the ocean's surface. Largely because of the marine chronometer, a wealth of unprecedentedly-accurate information about zonal, as well as meridional, surface currents began to accumulate in various hydrographic offices. In the early nineteenth century data from the Atlantic were collected and reduced in a systematic fashion (Rennell), to produce the first detailed description of the major circulation patterns at the surface for the entire mid- and low-latitude Atlantic, along with evidence for cross-equatorial flow. This work provided a foundation for the assemblage of a global data set (Humboldt; Berghaus) that yielded a worldwide charting of the non-polar currents by the late 1830s. Subtleties such as the North Equatorial Countercurrent in the Pacific were revealed for the first time. During the next two decades, the western intensification of subtropical gyres was recognized (Wilkes) while numerous refinements were made to other global descriptions (Wilkes; Kerhallet; Findlay). Heuristic and often incorrect theories of what causes the circulations in the atmosphere and oceans were popularized in the 1850s and 1860s which led to a precipitous decline in the quality of charts intended for the public (Maury; Gareis and Becker). Such errors in popular theories provided motivation for the adoption of analytical methods, which in turn led directly to the discovery of the full effect of Earth's rotation on relatively large-scale motion and the realization of how that effect produces flow perpendicular to horizontal pressure gradients (Ferrel). The precedents for modern dedicated research cruises came in the 1860s and 1870s (i.e. Lightning; Porcupine; Challenger; Gazelle; Vøringen), as well as mounting evidence for the existence of a deep and global thermohaline circulation (Carpenter; Prestwich). The dynamical method for calculating geostrophic flow in the atmosphere (Guldberg and Mohn) and a precursor to our present formulation for quantizing surface wind stress (Zöppritz) were introduced in the 1870s. On a regional scale for the Norwegian Sea, the dynamical method was applied to marine measurements made at depth to yield a three-dimensional view of flow patterns (Mohn). Further insight into the deep circulation came slowly, but with ever increasing numbers of observations being made at and near the surface, the upper-layer circulation in non-polar latitudes was approximately described by the late 1880s (Krümmel).

Multiple states in the late Eocene ocean circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baatsen, M. L. J.; von der Heydt, A. S.; Kliphuis, M.; Viebahn, J.; Dijkstra, H. A.

2018-04-01

The Eocene-Oligocene Transition (EOT) marks a major step within the Cenozoic climate in going from a greenhouse into an icehouse state, with the formation of a continental-scale Antarctic ice sheet. The roles of steadily decreasing CO2 concentrations versus changes in ocean circulation at the EOT are still debated and the threshold for Antarctic glaciation is obscured by uncertainties in global geometry. Here, a detailed study of the late Eocene ocean circulation is carried out using an ocean general circulation model under two slightly different geography reconstructions of the middle-to-late Eocene (38 Ma). Using the same atmospheric forcing, both geographies give a profoundly different equilibrium ocean circulation state. The underlying reason for this sensitivity is the presence of multiple equilibria characterised by either North or South Pacific deep water formation. A possible shift from a southern towards a northern overturning circulation would result in significant changes in the global heat distribution and consequently make the Southern Hemisphere climate more susceptible for significant cooling and ice sheet formation on Antarctica.

Varicose Veins

MedlinePlus

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Seawater-derived neodymium isotope records in the Chukchi Sea, western Arctic Ocean during Holocene: implications for oceanographic circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Borom; Nam, Seung-Il; Huh, Youngsook; Lee, Mi Jung

2015-04-01

Changes in oceanographic circulation in the Artic have a large influence on the global oceanic and climate system of the Earth through the geological times. In particular, freshwater input from the North Pacific to the western Arctic Ocean affects the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) after the opening of the Bering Strait. Seawater-derived neodymium isotope in marine sediments has been used as a proxy to trace the origin of water masses and oceanic circulation system. The global average residence time of Nd is shorter than the global ocean mixing time and dissolved Nd in seawater behaves quasi-conservatively. In the modern Arctic Ocean, the Nd isotope distribution is dominated by Atlantic source water, although the circum-Arctic riverine discharge and Pacific-derived waters also have noticeable impacts. In this study, we investigated seawater-derived neodymium isotope records from a sediment core recovered from the Chukchi Sea to understand the changes in hydrograhic circulation of the western Arctic during the Holocene. A gravity core, ARA02B 01A, was collected on the northern shelf of the Chukchi Sea (73°37.8939'N, 166°30.9838'W, ca. 111 m in water depth) during the RV Araon expedition in 2011. To obtain seawater-derived Nd records, we extracted Fe-Mn oxide coatings as an authigenic fraction from bulk sediments by leaching with acid-reducing solution after removing carbonate by leaching with acetic acid. Our preliminary results might show a general pattern of increasing radiogenic ɛNd values through Holocene intervals. Therefore, it implies that ɛNd results may be related with variations in the intensity of Bering Strait inflow during the last ~9.31 ka BP. The radiogenic trend was strongly pronounced from the late Holocene (ɛNd -7.23; ca. 8.84 ka BP) to the middle Holocene (ɛNd -4.78; ca. 6.18 ka BP) and vaguely during the middle Holocene. After 4.13 ka BP, ɛNd values were increased again from -4.86 to -4.03 at 0.57 ka BP. But 87Sr/86Sr values vary from 0.70929 to 0.70991 throughout the whole sediment core and they might be higher than the Sr isotopic value of modern seawater (0.70918). This implies that the leachates may not be preserved past seawater signal. Thus, our preliminary results indicate that further studies for assessment of leaching methods and for other reliable seawater-derived records (including authigenic carbonates, i.e., foraminiferal and bivalve shells which are found in sediment cores) are necessary.

Determination of circulation and turbidity patterns in Kerr Lake from LANDSAT MSS imagery. [Kerr Lake, Virginia, North Carolina

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lecroy, S. R. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

The LANDSAT imagery was historically analyzed to determine the circulation and turbidity patterns of Kerr Lake, located on the Virginia-North Carolina border. By examining the seasonal and regional turbidity and circulation patterns, a record of sediment transport and possible disposition can be obtained. Sketches were generated, displaying different intensities of brightness observed in bands 5 and 7 of LANDSAT's multispectral scanner data. Differences in and between bands 5 and 7 indicate variances in the levels of surface sediment concentrations. High sediment loads are revealed when distinct patterns appear in the band 7 imagery. The upwelled signal is exponential in nature and saturates in band 5 at low wavelengths for large concentrations of suspended solids.

A major reorganization of Asian climate by the early Miocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Z. T.; Sun, B.; Zhang, Z. S.; Peng, S. Z.; Xiao, G. Q.; Ge, J. Y.; Hao, Q. Z.; Qiao, Y. S.; Liang, M. Y.; Liu, J. F.; Yin, Q. Z.; Wei, J. J.

2008-08-01

The global climate system experienced a series of drastic changes during the Cenozoic. In Asia, these include the climate transformation from a zonal pattern to a monsoon-dominated pattern, the disappearance of typical subtropical aridity, and the onset of inland deserts. Despite major advances in the last two decades in characterizing and understanding these climate phenomena, disagreements persist relative to the timing, behaviors and underlying causes. This paper addresses these issues mainly based on two lines of evidence. First, we compiled newly collected data from geological indicators of the Cenozoic environment in China as paleoenvironmental maps of ten intervals. In confirming the earlier observation that a zonal climate pattern was transformed into a monsoonal one, the maps within the Miocene indicate that this change was achieved by the early Miocene, roughly consistent with the onset of loess deposition in China. Although a monsoon-like regime would have existed in the Eocene, it was restricted to tropical-subtropical regions. The latitudinal oscillations of the climate zones during the Paleogene are likely attributable to the imbalance in evolution of polar ice-sheets between the two hemispheres. Secondly, we examine the relevant depositional and soil forming processes of the Miocene loess-soil sequences to determine the circulation characteristics with emphasis on the early Miocene. Continuous eolian deposition in the middle reaches of the Yellow River since the early Miocene firmly indicates the formation of inland deserts, which have been constantly maintained during the past 22 Ma. Grain-size gradients between loess sections indicate northerly dust-carrying winds from northern sources, a clear indication of an Asian winter monsoon system. Meanwhile, well-developed Luvisols show evidence that moisture from the oceans reached northern China. This evidence shows the coexistence of two kinds of circulations, one from the ocean carrying moisture and another from the inland deserts transporting dust. The formation of the early Miocene paleosols resulted from interactive soil forming and dust deposition processes in these two seasonally alternating monsoonal circulations. The much stronger development of the early Miocene soils compared to those in the Quaternary loess indicates that summer monsoons were either significantly stronger, more persistent through the year, or both. These lines of evidence indicate a joint change in circulation and inland aridity by the early Miocene and suggest a dynamic linkage of them. Our recent sensitivity tests with a general circulation model, along with relevant geological data, suggest that the onset of these contrasting wet/dry responses, as well as the change from the "planetary" subtropical aridity pattern to the "inland" aridity pattern, resulted from the combined effects of Tibetan uplift and withdrawal of the Paratethys seaway in central Asia, as suggested by earlier experiments. The spreading of South China Sea also helped to enhance the south-north contrast of humidity. The Miocene loess record provides a vital insight that these tectonic factors had evolved by the early Miocene to a threshold sufficient to cause this major climate reorganization in Asia.

Climate pattern-scaling set for an ensemble of 22 GCMs - adding uncertainty to the IMOGEN version 2.0 impact system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zelazowski, Przemyslaw; Huntingford, Chris; Mercado, Lina M.; Schaller, Nathalie

2018-02-01

Global circulation models (GCMs) are the best tool to understand climate change, as they attempt to represent all the important Earth system processes, including anthropogenic perturbation through fossil fuel burning. However, GCMs are computationally very expensive, which limits the number of simulations that can be made. Pattern scaling is an emulation technique that takes advantage of the fact that local and seasonal changes in surface climate are often approximately linear in the rate of warming over land and across the globe. This allows interpolation away from a limited number of available GCM simulations, to assess alternative future emissions scenarios. In this paper, we present a climate pattern-scaling set consisting of spatial climate change patterns along with parameters for an energy-balance model that calculates the amount of global warming. The set, available for download, is derived from 22 GCMs of the WCRP CMIP3 database, setting the basis for similar eventual pattern development for the CMIP5 and forthcoming CMIP6 ensemble. Critically, it extends the use of the IMOGEN (Integrated Model Of Global Effects of climatic aNomalies) framework to enable scanning across full uncertainty in GCMs for impact studies. Across models, the presented climate patterns represent consistent global mean trends, with a maximum of 4 (out of 22) GCMs exhibiting the opposite sign to the global trend per variable (relative humidity). The described new climate regimes are generally warmer, wetter (but with less snowfall), cloudier and windier, and have decreased relative humidity. Overall, when averaging individual performance across all variables, and without considering co-variance, the patterns explain one-third of regional change in decadal averages (mean percentage variance explained, PVE, 34.25 ± 5.21), but the signal in some models exhibits much more linearity (e.g. MIROC3.2(hires): 41.53) than in others (GISS_ER: 22.67). The two most often considered variables, near-surface temperature and precipitation, have a PVE of 85.44 ± 4.37 and 14.98 ± 4.61, respectively. We also provide an example assessment of a terrestrial impact (changes in mean runoff) and compare projections by the IMOGEN system, which has one land surface model, against direct GCM outputs, which all have alternative representations of land functioning. The latter is noted as an additional source of uncertainty. Finally, current and potential future applications of the IMOGEN version 2.0 modelling system in the areas of ecosystem modelling and climate change impact assessment are presented and discussed.

Radial Artery Catheterization

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Thrombophilia and Hypercoagulability

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Heart-Healthy Exercise

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Heparin-Induced Thrombocytopenia

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Circulation system configuration characteristics of four rainfall patterns in summer over the East China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Junhu; Yang, Liu; Feng, Guolin

2018-02-01

In this study, the simultaneous atmospheric circulation system configuration characteristics of the four rainfall patterns (FRP) over the East China during the period 1951-2015 are analyzed in order to investigate their formation mechanisms. The results confirm that the FRP possess obvious differences in the upper-level, middle-level, and lower-level troposphere. In northern China rainfall pattern (NCP) years, the East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream (EAJS) shows a northward trend, with a higher intensity than normal; the blocking high (BH) in the mid-high latitudes is inactive; and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) tends to be stronger, with a location to the north of its normal position. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is stronger, which promotes vapor transport to northern China, and this leads to increased rainfall. In intermediate rainfall pattern (IRP) years, the EAJS position is close to that in normal years; the BH is inactive; the WPSH tends to be weaker, with a location to the east of its normal position; and the EASM is stronger, which is conducive to increased rainfall over the Huaihe River Basin. In Yangtze River rainfall pattern (YRP) years, the circulations are found to be almost opposite in their features to those in NCP years. In South China rainfall pattern (SCP) years, the circulations are found to be almost opposite in their features to those in IRP years. This leads to increased rainfall over South China. Therefore, the different circulation system configuration characteristics lead to the different rainfall patterns.

Is Polar Amplification Deeper and Stronger than Dynamicists Assume?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheff, J.; Maroon, E.

2017-12-01

In the CMIP multi-model mean under strong future warming, Arctic amplification is confined to the lower troposphere, so that the meridional gradient of warming reverses around 500 mb and the upper troposphere is characterized by strong "tropical amplification" in which warming weakens with increasing latitude. This model-derived pattern of warming maxima in the upper-level tropics and lower-level Arctic has become a canonical assumption driving theories of the large-scale circulation response to climate change. Yet, several lines of evidence and reasoning suggest that Arctic amplification may in fact extend through the entire depth of the troposphere, and/or may be stronger than commonly modeled. These include satellite Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) temperature trends as a function of latitude and vertical level, the recent discovery that the extratropical negative cloud phase feedback in models is largely spurious, and the very strong polar amplification observed in past warm and lukewarm climates. Such a warming pattern, with deep, dominant Arctic amplification, would have very different implications for the circulation than a canonical CMIP-like warming: instead of slightly shifting poleward and strengthening, eddies, jets and cells might shift equatorward and considerably weaken. Indeed, surface winds have been mysteriously weakening ("stilling") at almost all stations over the last half-century or so, there has been no poleward shift in northern hemisphere circulation metrics, and past warm climates' subtropics were apparently quite wet (and their global ocean circulations were weak.) To explore these possibilities more deeply, we examine the y-z structure of warming and circulation changes across a much broader range of models, scenarios and time periods than the CMIP future mean, and use an MSU simulator to compare them to the satellite warming record. Specifically, we examine whether the use of historical (rather than future) forcing, AMIP (rather than CMIP) configuration, individual GCMs, and/or individual ensemble members can better reproduce the structure of the MSU and surface-wind observations. Figure 1 already shows that tropical amplification is absent in the CESM1 historical ensemble (1979-2012). The results of these analyses will guide our future modeling work on these topics.

Abrupt Late Holocene Shift in Atmospheric Circulation Recorded by Mineral Dust in the Siple Dome Ice Core, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koffman, B. G.; Goldstein, S. L.; Kaplan, M. R.; Winckler, G.; Bory, A. J. M.; Biscaye, P.

2015-12-01

Atmospheric dust directly influences Earth's climate by altering the radiative balance and by depositing micronutrients in the surface ocean, affecting global biogeochemical cycling. In addition, mineral dust particles provide observational evidence constraining past atmospheric circulation patterns. Because dust can originate from both local and distant terrestrial sources, knowledge of dust provenance can substantially inform our understanding of past climate history, atmospheric transport pathways, and differences in aerosol characteristics between glacial and interglacial climate states. Dust provenance information from Antarctic ice cores has until now been limited to sites in East Antarctica. Here we present some of the first provenance data from West Antarctica. We use Sr-Nd isotopes to characterize dust extracted from late Holocene ice (~1000-1800 C.E.) from the Siple Dome ice core. The data form a tight array in Sr-Nd isotope space, with 87Sr/86Sr ranging between ~0.7087 and 0.7102, and ɛNd ranging between ~ -7 and -16. This combination is unique for Antarctica, with low Nd and low Sr isotope ratios compared to high-elevation East Antarctic sites, requiring a dust source from ancient (Archean to early Proterozoic) and unweathered continental crust, which mixes with young volcanic material. Both components are likely sourced from Antarctica. We also observe significant, systematic variability in Sr and Nd isotopic signatures through time, reflecting changes in the mixing ratio of these sources, and hypothesize that these changes are driven by shifts in circulation patterns. A large change occurs over about 10 years at ca. 1125 C.E. (ΔɛNd = +3 and Δ87Sr/86Sr = -0.0014). This shift coincides with changes in climate proxies in Southern Hemisphere paleoclimate records reflecting variability in the Westerlies. We therefore interpret the shift in dust provenance at Siple Dome to be related to larger-scale circulation changes. In general, the observed shifts in the particle source signatures indicate that dust transport pathways to and around the West Antarctic Ice Sheet are highly responsive to perturbations in atmospheric circulation, and can record rapid shifts in provenance.

Oceanic circulation models help to predict global biogeography of pelagic yellow-bellied sea snake.

PubMed

Brischoux, François; Cotté, Cédric; Lillywhite, Harvey B; Bailleul, Frédéric; Lalire, Maxime; Gaspar, Philippe

2016-08-01

It is well recognized that most marine vertebrates, and especially tetrapods, precisely orient and actively move in apparently homogeneous oceanic environments. Here, we investigate the presumptive role of oceanic currents in biogeographic patterns observed in a secondarily marine tetrapod, the yellow-bellied sea snake (Hydrophis [Pelamis] platurus). State-of-the-art world ocean circulation models show how H. platurus, the only pelagic species of sea snake, can potentially exploit oceanic currents to disperse and maintain population mixing between localities that spread over two-thirds of the Earth's circumference. The very close association of these snakes with surface currents seems to provide a highly efficient dispersal mechanism that allowed this species to range extensively and relatively quickly well beyond the central Indo-Pacific area, the centre of origin, abundance and diversity of sea snakes. Our results further suggest that the pan-oceanic population of this species must be extraordinarily large. © 2016 The Author(s).

Emerging European winter precipitation pattern linked to atmospheric circulation changes over the North Atlantic region in recent decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Seo, Hyodae; Kwon, Young-Oh; Parfitt, Rhys; Brands, Swen; Joyce, Terrence M.

2017-08-01

Dominant European winter precipitation patterns over the past century, along with their associated extratropical North Atlantic circulation changes, are evaluated using cluster analysis. Contrary to the four regimes traditionally identified based on daily wintertime atmospheric circulation patterns, five distinct seasonal precipitation regimes are detected here. Recurrent precipitation patterns in each regime are linked to changes in atmospheric blocking, storm track, and sea surface temperatures across the North Atlantic region. Multidecadal variability in the frequency of the precipitation patterns reveals more (fewer) winters with wet conditions in northern (southern) Europe in recent decades and an emerging distinct pattern of enhanced wintertime precipitation over the northern British Isles. This pattern has become unusually common since the 1980s and is associated with changes in moisture transport and more frequent atmospheric river events. The observed precipitation changes post-1950 coincide with changes in storm track activity over the central/eastern North Atlantic toward the northern British Isles.

Role of Tropical Atlantic SST Variability as a Modulator of El Nino Teleconnections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Sung, Mi-Kyung; An, Soon-II; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Kug, Jong-Seong

2014-01-01

The present study suggests that the off-equatorial North Atlantic (NATL) SST warming plays a significant role in modulating El Niño teleconnection and its impact on the North Atlantic and European regions. The El Niño events accompanied by NATL SST warming exhibit south-north dipole pattern over the Western Europe to Atlantic, while the ENSO teleconnection pattern without NATL warming exhibits a Rossby wave-like pattern confined over the North Pacific and western Atlantic. Especially, the El Niño events with NATL warming show positive (negative) geopotential-height anomalies over the North Atlantic (Western Europe) which resemble the negative phase of the NAO. Consistently, it is shown using a simple statistical model that NATL SSTA in addition to the tropical Pacific SSTA leads to better prediction on regional climate variation over the North Atlantic and European regions. This role of NATL SST on ENSO teleconnection is also validated and discussed in a long term simulation of coupled global circulation model (CGCM).

The role of local sea surface temperature pattern changes in shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hand, Ralf; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Bader, Jürgen; Greatbatch, Richard J.

2018-03-01

Beside its global effects, climate change is manifested in many regionally pronounced features mainly resulting from changes in the oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Here we investigate the influence of the North Atlantic SST on shaping the winter-time response to global warming. Our results are based on a long-term climate projection with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to investigate the influence of North Atlantic sea surface temperature pattern changes on shaping the atmospheric climate change signal. In sensitivity experiments with the model's atmospheric component we decompose the response into components controlled by the local SST structure and components controlled by global/remote changes. MPI-ESM simulates a global warming response in SST similar to other climate models: there is a warming minimum—or "warming hole"—in the subpolar North Atlantic, and the sharp SST gradients associated with the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current shift northward by a few a degrees. Over the warming hole, global warming causes a relatively weak increase in rainfall. Beyond this, our experiments show more localized effects, likely resulting from future SST gradient changes in the North Atlantic. This includes a significant precipitation decrease to the south of the Gulf Stream despite increased underlying SSTs. Since this region is characterised by a strong band of precipitation in the current climate, this is contrary to the usual case that wet regions become wetter and dry regions become drier in a warmer climate. A moisture budget analysis identifies a complex interplay of various processes in the region of modified SST gradients: reduced surface winds cause a decrease in evaporation; and thermodynamic, modified atmospheric eddy transports, and coastal processes cause a change in the moisture convergence. The changes in the the North Atlantic storm track are mainly controlled by the non-regional changes in the forcing. The impact of the local SST pattern changes on regions outside the North Atlantic is small in our setup.

Circulation patterns in active lava lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redmond, T. C.; Lev, E.

2014-12-01

Active lava lakes provide a unique window into magmatic conduit processes. We investigated circulation patterns of 4 active lava lakes: Kilauea's Halemaumau crater, Mount Erebus, Erta Ale and Nyiragongo, and in an artificial "lava lake" constructed at the Syracuse University Lava Lab. We employed visual and thermal video recordings collected at these volcanoes and use computer vision techniques to extract time-dependent, two-dimensional surface velocity maps. The large amount of data available from Halemaumau enabled us to identify several characteristic circulation patterns. One such pattern is a rapid acceleration followed by rapid deceleration, often to a level lower than the pre-acceleration level, and then a slow recovery. Another pattern is periodic asymmetric peaks of gradual acceleration and rapid deceleration, or vice versa, previously explained by gas pistoning. Using spectral analysis, we find that the dominant period of circulation cycles at approximately 30 minutes, 3 times longer than the dominant period identified previously for Mount Erebus. Measuring a complete surface velocity field allowed us to map and follow locations of divergence and convergence, therefore upwelling and downwelling, thus connecting the surface flow with that at depth. At Nyiragongo, the location of main upwelling shifts gradually, yet is usually at the interior of the lake, for Erebus it is usually along the perimeter yet often there is catastrophic downwelling at the interior; For Halemaumau upwelling/downwelling position is almost always on the perimeter. In addition to velocity fields, we developed an automated tool for counting crustal plates at the surface of the lava lakes, and found a correlation, and a lag time, between changes if circulation vigor and the average size of crustal plates. Circulation in the artificial basaltic lava "lake" was limited by its size and degree of foaming, yet we measured surface velocities and identify patterns. Maximum surface velocity showed symmetrical peaks of acceleration and deceleration. In summary, extended observations at lava lakes reveal patterns of circulations at different time scales, yielding insight into different processes controlling the exchange of gas and fluids between the magma chamber and conduit, and the surface and atmosphere.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Streubel, Robert; Kronast, Florian; Reiche, Christopher F.

For this work, we studied curvature-driven modifications to the magnetostatic coupling of vortex circulation and polarity in soft-magnetic closely packed cap arrays. A phase diagram for the magnetic remanent/transition states at room temperature as a function of diameter and thickness was assembled. For specimens with vortex remanent state (40 nm-thick Permalloy on 330 nm spherical nanoparticles), both vortex circulation and polarity were visualized. Intercap coupling upon vortex nucleation leads to the formation of vortex circulation patterns in closely packed arrays. The remanent circulation pattern can be tailored choosing the direction of the applied magnetic field with respect to the symmetrymore » axis of the hexagonal array. An even and random distribution of vortex polarity indicates the absence of any circulation-polarity coupling.« less

Circulation types related to lightning activity over Catalonia and the Principality of Andorra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pineda, N.; Esteban, P.; Trapero, L.; Soler, X.; Beck, C.

In the present study, we use a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to characterize the surface 6-h circulation types related to substantial lightning activity over the Catalonia area (north-eastern Iberia) and the Principality of Andorra (eastern Pyrenees) from January 2003 to December 2007. The gridded data used for classification of the circulation types is the NCEP Final Analyses of the Global Tropospheric Analyses at 1° resolution over the region 35°N-48°N by 5°W-8°E. Lightning information was collected by the SAFIR lightning detection system operated by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC), which covers the region studied. We determined nine circulation types on the basis of the S-mode orthogonal rotated Principal Component Analysis. The “extreme scores” principle was used previous to the assignation of all cases, to obtain the number of final types and their centroids. The distinct differences identified in the resulting mean Sea Level Pressure (SLP) fields enabled us to group the types into three main patterns, taking into account their scale/dynamical origin. The first group of types shows the different distribution of the centres of action at synoptic scale associated with the occurrence of lightning. The second group is connected to mesoscale dynamics, mainly induced by the relief of the Pyrenees. The third group shows types with low gradient SLP patterns in which the lightning activity is a consequence of thermal dynamics (coastal and mountain breezes). Apart from reinforcing the consistency of the groups obtained, analysis of the resulting classification improves our understanding of the geographical distribution and genesis factors of thunderstorm activity in the study area, and provides complementary information for supporting weather forecasting. Thus, the catalogue obtained will provide advances in different climatological and meteorological applications, such as nowcasting products or detection of climate change trends.

Upper air teleconnections to Ob River flows and tree rings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meko, David; Panyushkina, Irina; Agafonov, Leonid

2015-04-01

The Ob River, one of the world's greatest rivers, with a catchment basin about the size of Western Europe, contributes 12% or more of the annual freshwater inflow to the Arctic Ocean. The input of heat and fresh water is important to the global climate system through effects on sea ice, salinity, and the thermohaline circulation of the ocean. As part of a tree-ring project to obtain multi-century long information on variability of Ob River flows, a network of 18 sites of Pinus, Larix, Populus and Salix has been collected along the Ob in the summers of 2013 and 2014. Analysis of collections processed so far indicates a significant relationship of tree-growth to river discharge. Moderation of the floodplain air temperature regime by flooding appears to be an important driver of the tree-ring response. In unraveling the relationship of tree-growth to river flows, it is important to identify atmospheric circulation features directly linked to observed time series variations of flow and tree growth. In this study we examine statistical links between primary teleconnection modes of Northern Hemisphere upper-air (500 mb) circulation, Ob River flow, and tree-ring chronologies. Annual discharge at the mouth of the Ob River is found to be significantly positively related to the phase of the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, the second prominent mode of low-frequency variability over the North Atlantic. The EA pattern, consisting of a north-south dipole of pressure-anomaly centers spanning the North Atlantic from east to west, is associated with a low-pressure anomaly centered over the Ob River Basin, and with a pattern of positive precipitation anomaly of the same region. The positive correlation of discharge and EA is consistent with these know patterns, and is contrasted with generally negative (though smaller) correlations between EA and tree-ring chronologies. The signs of correlations are consistent with a conceptual model of river influence on tree growth through air temperature. Future work aims at combining the tree-ring samples from living trees and remnant wood to reconstruction to quantitiative reconstruction of annual flow over the past millennium.

Global energetics and local physics as drivers of past, present and future monsoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biasutti, Michela; Voigt, Aiko; Boos, William R.; Braconnot, Pascale; Hargreaves, Julia C.; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kang, Sarah M.; Mapes, Brian E.; Scheff, Jacob; Schumacher, Courtney; Sobel, Adam H.; Xie, Shang-Ping

2018-06-01

Global constraints on momentum and energy govern the variability of the rainfall belt in the intertropical convergence zone and the structure of the zonal mean tropical circulation. The continental-scale monsoon systems are also facets of a momentum- and energy-constrained global circulation, but their modern and palaeo variability deviates substantially from that of the intertropical convergence zone. The mechanisms underlying deviations from expectations based on the longitudinal mean budgets are neither fully understood nor simulated accurately. We argue that a framework grounded in global constraints on energy and momentum yet encompassing the complexities of monsoon dynamics is needed to identify the causes of the mismatch between theory, models and observations, and ultimately to improve regional climate projections. In a first step towards this goal, disparate regional processes must be distilled into gross measures of energy flow in and out of continents and between the surface and the tropopause, so that monsoon dynamics may be coherently diagnosed across modern and palaeo observations and across idealized and comprehensive simulations. Accounting for zonal asymmetries in the circulation, land/ocean differences in surface fluxes, and the character of convective systems, such a monsoon framework would integrate our understanding at all relevant scales: from the fine details of how moisture and energy are lifted in the updrafts of thunderclouds, up to the global circulations.

A GCM simulation of the earth-atmosphere radiation balance for winter and summer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, M. L. C.

1979-01-01

The radiation balance of the earth-atmosphere system simulated by using the general circulation model (GCM) of the Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) is examined in regards to its graphical distribution, zonally-averaged distribution, and global mean. Most of the main features of the radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere are reasonably simulated, with some differences in the detailed structure of the patterns and intensities for both summer and winter in comparison with values as derived from Nimbus and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) satellite observations. Both the capability and defects of the model are discussed.

Climate and smoke - An appraisal of nuclear winter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turco, R. P.; Toon, O. B.; Pollack, J. B.; Ackerman, T. P.; Sagan, C.

1990-01-01

A reevaluation is presented of the 'nuclear winter' scenario of Turco et al. (1983). New pertinent data have emerged from laboratory studies, field experiments, and numerical models on the smoke-plume, mesoscale, and global scales. A full-scale nuclear exchange's probable soot injections lead, in three-dimensional climate simulations, to midsummer land temperature decreases averaging 10-20 C in northern midlatitudes, with local cooling of as much as 35 C. Anomalous circulation patterns due to solar heating of the soot could stabilize the upper atmosphere against overturning, thereby prolonging the soot's residence time in the atmosphere. Monsoon disruptions and severe ozone layer depletion are also foreseen.

Catheter Ablation of Ventricular Tachycardia

MedlinePlus

... Bridging Disciplines Circulation at Major Meetings Special Themed Issues Global Impact of the 2017 ACC/AHA Hypertension Guidelines Circulation Supplements Cardiovascular Case Series ECG Challenge Hospitals of History Brigham and ...

Radiation from Cardiac Imaging Tests

MedlinePlus

... Bridging Disciplines Circulation at Major Meetings Special Themed Issues Global Impact of the 2017 ACC/AHA Hypertension Guidelines Circulation Supplements Cardiovascular Case Series ECG Challenge Hospitals of History Brigham and ...

Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation

MedlinePlus

... Bridging Disciplines Circulation at Major Meetings Special Themed Issues Global Impact of the 2017 ACC/AHA Hypertension Guidelines Circulation Supplements Cardiovascular Case Series ECG Challenge Hospitals of History Brigham and ...

Climatology of atmospheric circulation patterns of Arabian dust in western Iran.

PubMed

Najafi, Mohammad Saeed; Sarraf, B S; Zarrin, A; Rasouli, A A

2017-08-28

Being in vicinity of vast deserts, the west and southwest of Iran are characterized by high levels of dust events, which have adverse consequences on human health, ecosystems, and environment. Using ground based dataset of dust events in western Iran and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the atmospheric circulation patterns of dust events in the Arabian region and west of Iran are identified. The atmospheric circulation patterns which lead to dust events in the Arabian region and western Iran were classified into two main categories: the Shamal dust events that occurs in warm period of year and the frontal dust events as cold period pattern. In frontal dust events, the western trough or blocking pattern at mid-level leads to frontogenesis, instability, and air uplift at lower levels of troposphere in the southwest of Asia. Non-frontal is other pattern of dust event in the cold period and dust generation are due to the regional circulation systems at the lower level of troposphere. In Shamal wind pattern, the Saudi Arabian anticyclone, Turkmenistan anticyclone, and Zagros thermal low play the key roles in formation of this pattern. Summer and transitional patterns are two sub-categories of summer Shamal wind pattern. In summer trough pattern, the mid-tropospheric trough leads to intensify the surface thermal systems in the Middle East and causes instability and rising of wind speed in the region. In synthetic pattern of Shamal wind and summer trough, dust is created by the impact of a trough in mid-levels of troposphere as well as existing the mentioned regional systems which are contributed in formation of summer Shamal wind pattern.

Role of the Polar Oceans in Global Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rothrock, D. A.

2003-01-01

The project focused on ice-ocean model development and in particular on the assimilation of ice motion data and ice concentration data into both regional and global models. Many of the resulting publications below deal with improvements made in the physics treated by the model and the procedures for assimilating data. Several papers examine how the ability of the model to simulate the past behavior of the ice cover, especially to represent the ice thickness and ice deformation, is improved by data assimilation. A second aspect of the work involved interpretation of modeled behavior. Resulting papers treat the decline of arctic ice thickness over the last thirty years, and how that decline was caused by a slight warming of the near-surface atmosphere, and also how large variation in ice thickness are due to changes in wind patterns associated with a well- known oscillation of the atmospheric circulation. The research resulted in over 20 published papers on these topics.

Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

PubMed Central

Heesterbeek, Hans; Anderson, Roy; Andreasen, Viggo; Bansal, Shweta; De Angelis, Daniela; Dye, Chris; Eames, Ken; Edmunds, John; Frost, Simon; Funk, Sebastian; Hollingsworth, Deirdre; House, Thomas; Isham, Valerie; Klepac, Petra; Lessler, Justin; Lloyd-Smith, James; Metcalf, Jessica; Mollison, Denis; Pellis, Lorenzo; Pulliam, Juliet; Roberts, Mick; Viboud, Cecile

2015-01-01

Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational and spatial scales, which even within a single pathogen often span hours to months, cellular to ecosystem levels, and local to pandemic spread. Some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, while others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity, and dynamic human behavior, raise prevention and control from formerly national to international issues. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer essential tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing the quantitative evidence base for decision-making in global health. PMID:25766240

Future Climate Impacts of Direct Radiative Forcing Anthropogenic Aerosols, Tropospheric Ozone, and Long-lived Greenhouse Gases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Wei-Ting; Liao, Hong; Seinfeld, John H.

2007-01-01

Long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the most important driver of climate change over the next century. Aerosols and tropospheric ozone (O3) are expected to induce significant perturbations to the GHG-forced climate. To distinguish the equilibrium climate responses to changes in direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG between present day and year 2100, four 80-year equilibrium climates are simulated using a unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 110. Concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, primary organic (POA) carbon, secondary organic (SOA) carbon, black carbon (BC) aerosols, and tropospheric ozone for present day and year 2100 are obtained a priori by coupled chemistry-aerosol GCM simulations, with emissions of aerosols, ozone, and precursors based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A2. Changing anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG from present day to year 2100 is predicted to perturb the global annual mean radiative forcing by +0.18 (considering aerosol direct effects only), +0.65, and +6.54 W m(sup -2) at the tropopause, and to induce an equilibrium global annual mean surface temperature change of +0.14, +0.32, and +5.31 K, respectively, with the largest temperature response occurring at northern high latitudes. Anthropogenic aerosols, through their direct effect, are predicted to alter the Hadley circulation owing to an increasing interhemispheric temperature gradient, leading to changes in tropical precipitation. When changes in both aerosols and tropospheric ozone are considered, the predicted patterns of change in global circulation and the hydrological cycle are similar to those induced by aerosols alone. GHG-induced climate changes, such as amplified warming over high latitudes, weakened Hadley circulation, and increasing precipitation over the Tropics and high latitudes, are consistent with predictions of a number of previous GCM studies. Finally, direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols is predicted to induce strong regional cooling over East and South Asia. Wintertime rainfall over southeastern China and the Indian subcontinent is predicted to decrease because of the increased atmospheric stability and decreased surface evaporation, while the geographic distribution of precipitation is also predicted to be altered as a result of aerosol-induced changes in wind flow.

GFDL's ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon Earth System Models. Part I: physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunne, John P.; John, Jasmin G.; Adcroft, Alistair J.; Griffies, Stephen M.; Hallberg, Robert W.; Shevalikova, Elena; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Cooke, William; Dunne, Krista A.; Harrison, Matthew J.; Krasting, John P.; Malyshev, Sergey L.; Milly, P.C.D.; Phillipps, Peter J.; Sentman, Lori A.; Samuels, Bonita L.; Spelman, Michael J.; Winton, Michael; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Zadeh, Niki

2012-01-01

We describe the physical climate formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled carbon-climate Earth System Models, ESM2M and ESM2G. These models demonstrate similar climate fidelity as the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's previous CM2.1 climate model while incorporating explicit and consistent carbon dynamics. The two models differ exclusively in the physical ocean component; ESM2M uses Modular Ocean Model version 4.1 with vertical pressure layers while ESM2G uses Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics with a bulk mixed layer and interior isopycnal layers. Differences in the ocean mean state include the thermocline depth being relatively deep in ESM2M and relatively shallow in ESM2G compared to observations. The crucial role of ocean dynamics on climate variability is highlighted in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation being overly strong in ESM2M and overly weak ESM2G relative to observations. Thus, while ESM2G might better represent climate changes relating to: total heat content variability given its lack of long term drift, gyre circulation and ventilation in the North Pacific, tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans, and depth structure in the overturning and abyssal flows, ESM2M might better represent climate changes relating to: surface circulation given its superior surface temperature, salinity and height patterns, tropical Pacific circulation and variability, and Southern Ocean dynamics. Our overall assessment is that neither model is fundamentally superior to the other, and that both models achieve sufficient fidelity to allow meaningful climate and earth system modeling applications. This affords us the ability to assess the role of ocean configuration on earth system interactions in the context of two state-of-the-art coupled carbon-climate models.

MERIDIONAL FLOW IN THE SOLAR CONVECTION ZONE. II. HELIOSEISMIC INVERSIONS OF GONG DATA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jackiewicz, J.; Serebryanskiy, A.; Kholikov, S., E-mail: jasonj@nmsu.edu

2015-06-01

Meridional flow is thought to play a very important role in the dynamics of the solar convection zone; however, because of its relatively small amplitude, precisely measuring it poses a significant challenge. Here we present a complete time–distance helioseismic analysis of about 2 years of ground-based Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) Doppler data to retrieve the meridional circulation profile for modest latitudes in an attempt to corroborate results from other studies. We use an empirical correction to the travel times due to an unknown center-to-limb systematic effect. The helioseismic inversion procedure is first tested and reasonably validated on artificial datamore » from a large-scale numerical simulation followed by a test to broadly recover the solar differential rotation found from global seismology. From GONG data, we measure poleward photospheric flows at all latitudes with properties that are comparable with earlier studies and a shallow equatorward flow about 65 Mm beneath the surface, in agreement with recent findings from Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) data. No strong evidence of multiple circulation cells in depth or latitude is found, yet the whole phase space has not yet been explored. Tests of mass flux conservation are then carried out on the inferred GONG and HMI flows and compared to a fiducial numerical baseline from models, and we find that the continuity equation is poorly satisfied. While the two disparate data sets do give similar results for about the outer 15% of the interior radius, the total inverted circulation pattern appears to be unphysical in terms of mass conservation when interpreted over modest time scales. We can likely attribute this to both the influence of realization noise and subtle effects in the data and measurement procedure.« less

The resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon and Indo-Pacific in a global 0.35° AGCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Stephanie J.; Levine, Richard C.; Turner, Andrew G.; Martin, Gill M.; Woolnough, Steven J.; Schiemann, Reinhard; Mizielinski, Matthew S.; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Strachan, Jane

2016-02-01

The South Asian monsoon is one of the most significant manifestations of the seasonal cycle. It directly impacts nearly one third of the world's population and also has substantial global influence. Using 27-year integrations of a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (Met Office Unified Model), we study changes in South Asian monsoon precipitation and circulation when horizontal resolution is increased from approximately 200-40 km at the equator (N96-N512, 1.9°-0.35°). The high resolution, integration length and ensemble size of the dataset make this the most extensive dataset used to evaluate the resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon to date. We find a consistent pattern of JJAS precipitation and circulation changes as resolution increases, which include a slight increase in precipitation over peninsular India, changes in Indian and Indochinese orographic rain bands, increasing wind speeds in the Somali Jet, increasing precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands and decreasing precipitation over the northern Maritime Continent seas. To diagnose which resolution-related processes cause these changes, we compare them to published sensitivity experiments that change regional orography and coastlines. Our analysis indicates that improved resolution of the East African Highlands results in the improved representation of the Somali Jet and further suggests that improved resolution of orography over Indochina and the Maritime Continent results in more precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands at the expense of reduced precipitation further north. We also evaluate the resolution sensitivity of monsoon depressions and lows, which contribute more precipitation over northeast India at higher resolution. We conclude that while increasing resolution at these scales does not solve the many monsoon biases that exist in GCMs, it has a number of small, beneficial impacts.

Global QBO in circulation and ozone. Part 1: Reexamination of observational evidence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tung, K.K.; Yang, H.

1994-10-01

Observational evidence for a global quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) pattern is reviewed. In particular, the presence of an extratropical, as well as an equatorial, component of the QBO signal in column ozone is established. It is found that the ozone interannual variability is such that as one moves away from the Tropics, the frequency spectrum of the anomaly changes from one that is dominated by the equatorial QBO frequency of 1/30 mo to a two-peak spectrum around the two frequencies: 1/30 mo and 1/20 mo. Instead of treating the 1/20 mo frequency as a separate phenomenon to be filtered away inmore » extracting the QBO in the extratropics, as was previously done, the authors argue that both peaks are integral parts of the extratropical QBO phenomenon. The 1/20 mo frequency happens to be the difference combination of the QBO frequency 1/30 mo and the annual frequency 1/12 mo. Therefore, it can represent the result of the QBO modulating an annual cycle. The authors suggest that previous methods of extracting the extratropical QBO signal severely underestimated the contribution of the QBO to the interannual variability of ozone when data are filtered to pass only the component with the period of equatorial QBO. Further, it is argued that the transport of equatorial QBO ozone anomaly by a non-QBO circulation can at most account for 6-8 Dobson units (DU) of the observed interannual variability of column ozone in the extratropics. The remaining variability (up to 20 DU) probably cannot be produced without an anomaly in the transporting circulation in the extratropics.« less

Impact of large-scale circulation changes in the North Atlantic sector on the current and future Mediterranean winter hydroclimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barcikowska, Monika J.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Feser, Frauke

2018-03-01

The Mediterranean region, located in the transition zone between the dry subtropical and wet European mid-latitude climate, is very sensitive to changes in the global mean climate state. Projecting future changes of the Mediterranean hydroclimate under global warming therefore requires dynamic climate models to reproduce the main mechanisms controlling regional hydroclimate with sufficiently high resolution to realistically simulate climate extremes. To assess future winter precipitation changes in the Mediterranean region we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory high-resolution general circulation model for control simulations with pre-industrial greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations which are compared to future scenario simulations. Here we show that the coupled model is able to reliably simulate the large-scale winter circulation, including the North Atlantic Oscillation and Eastern Atlantic patterns of variability, and its associated impacts on the mean Mediterranean hydroclimate. The model also realistically reproduces the regional features of daily heavy rainfall, which are absent in lower-resolution simulations. A five-member future projection ensemble, which assumes comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5) until 2100, indicates a strong winter decline in Mediterranean precipitation for the coming decades. Consistent with dynamical and thermodynamical consequences of a warming atmosphere, derived changes feature a distinct bipolar behavior, i.e. wetting in the north—and drying in the south. Changes are most pronounced over the northwest African coast, where the projected winter precipitation decline reaches 40% of present values. Despite a decrease in mean precipitation, heavy rainfall indices show drastic increases across most of the Mediterranean, except the North African coast, which is under the strong influence of the cold Canary Current.

What to Expect during Cardiac Catheterization

MedlinePlus

... Bridging Disciplines Circulation at Major Meetings Special Themed Issues Global Impact of the 2017 ACC/AHA Hypertension Guidelines Circulation Supplements Cardiovascular Case Series ECG Challenge Hospitals of History Brigham and ...

Projected future wave climate in the NW Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casas-Prat, M.; Sierra, J. P.

2013-07-01

Projected future regional wave climate scenarios at a high temporal-spatial scale were obtained for the NW Mediterranean Sea, using five combinations of regional-global circulation models. Changes in wave variables were analyzed and related to the variations of the forcing wind projections, while also evaluating the evolution of the presence of the different types of sea states. To assess the significance of the changes produced, a bootstrap-based method was proposed, which accounts for the autocorrelation of data and correctly reproduces the extremes. For the mean climate, relative changes of Hs up to ±10% were obtained, whereas they were around ±20% for the extreme climate. In mean terms, variations of Hs are similar to those associated with wind speed but are enhanced/attenuated, respectively, when fetch conditions are favorable/unfavorable. In general, most notable alterations are not in the Hs magnitude but rather in its direction. In this regard, during the winter season, it is interesting to note that the significant deviations between the results derived from the two global circulation models are larger than those between regional models. ECHAM5 simulated an enhanced west wind flow that is translated into more frequent W-NW waves, whereas the HadCM3Q3 global model gives rise to the east component, which contributes to a higher intensity and number of storms coming from such a direction and directly affects the wind-sea/swell distribution of coastal stretches that face east, like the Catalan coast. Different patterns of change were obtained during the summer when a common rise of NE-E waves was found.

Towards the impact of eddies on the response of the global ocean circulation to Southern Ocean gateway opening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viebahn, Jan; von der Heydt, Anna S.; Dijkstra, Henk A.

2014-05-01

During the past 65 Million (Ma) years, Earth's climate has undergone a major change from warm 'greenhouse' to colder 'icehouse' conditions with extensive ice sheets in the polar regions of both hemispheres. The Eocene-Oligocene (~34 Ma) and Oligocene-Miocene (~23 Ma) boundaries reflect major transitions in Cenozoic global climate change. Proposed mechanisms of these transitions include reorganization of ocean circulation due to critical gateway opening/deepening, changes in atmospheric CO2-concentration, and feedback mechanisms related to land-ice formation. A long-standing hypothesis is that the formation of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current due to opening/deepening of Southern Ocean gateways led to glaciation of the Antarctic continent. However, while this hypothesis remains controversial, its assessment via coupled climate model simulations depends crucially on the spatial resolution in the ocean component. More precisely, only high-resolution modeling of the turbulent ocean circulation is capable of adequately describing reorganizations in the ocean flow field and related changes in turbulent heat transport. In this study, for the first time results of a high-resolution (0.1° horizontally) realistic global ocean model simulation with a closed Drake Passage are presented. Changes in global ocean temperatures, heat transport, and ocean circulation (e.g., Meridional Overturning Circulation and Antarctic Coastal Current) are established by comparison with an open Drake Passage high-resolution reference simulation. Finally, corresponding low-resolution simulations are also analyzed. The results highlight the essential impact of the ocean eddy field in palaeoclimatic change.

EVALUATION OF GROUNDWATER FLOW PATTERNS AROUND A DUAL-SCREENED GROUNDWATER CIRCULATION WELL

EPA Science Inventory

Dual-screened groundwater circulation wells (GCWs) can be used to remove contaminant mass and to mix reagents in situ. GCWs are so named because they force water in a circular pattern between injection and extraction screens. The radial extent, flux and direction of the effective...

Global warming induced hybrid rainy seasons in the Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salack, Seyni; Klein, Cornelia; Giannini, Alessandra; Sarr, Benoit; Worou, Omonlola N.; Belko, Nouhoun; Bliefernicht, Jan; Kunstman, Harald

2016-10-01

The small rainfall recovery observed over the Sahel, concomitant with a regional climate warming, conceals some drought features that exacerbate food security. The new rainfall features include false start and early cessation of rainy seasons, increased frequency of intense daily rainfall, increasing number of hot nights and warm days and a decreasing trend in diurnal temperature range. Here, we explain these mixed dry/wet seasonal rainfall features which are called hybrid rainy seasons by delving into observed data consensus on the reduction in rainfall amount, its spatial coverage, timing and erratic distribution of events, and other atmospheric variables crucial in agro-climatic monitoring and seasonal forecasting. Further composite investigations of seasonal droughts, oceans warming and the regional atmospheric circulation nexus reveal that the low-to-mid-level atmospheric winds pattern, often stationary relative to either strong or neutral El-Niño-Southern-Oscillations drought patterns, associates to basin warmings in the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea to trigger hybrid rainy seasons in the Sahel. More challenging to rain-fed farming systems, our results suggest that these new rainfall conditions will most likely be sustained by global warming, reshaping thereby our understanding of food insecurity in this region.

A gridded global description of the ionosphere and thermosphere for 1996 - 2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridley, A.; Kihn, E.; Kroehl, H.

The modeling and simulation community has asked for a realistic representation of the near-Earth space environment covering a significant number of years to be used in scientific and engineering applications. The data, data management systems, assimilation techniques, physical models, and computer resources are now available to construct a realistic description of the ionosphere and thermosphere over a 5 year period. DMSP and NOAA POES satellite data and solar emissions were used to compute Hall and Pederson conductances in the ionosphere. Interplanetary magnetic field measurements on the ACE satellite define average electrostatic potential patterns over the northern and southern Polar Regions. These conductances, electric field patterns, and ground-based magnetometer data were input to the Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics model to compute the distribution of electric fields and currents in the ionosphere. The Global Thermosphere Ionosphere Model (GITM) used the ionospheric electrodynamic parameters to compute the distribution of particles and fields in the ionosphere and thermosphere. GITM uses a general circulation approach to solve the fundamental equations. Model results offer a unique opportunity to assess the relative importance of different forcing terms under a variety of conditions as well as the accuracies of different estimates of ionospheric electrodynamic parameters.

Responses of the Tropical Atmospheric Circulation to Climate Change and Connection to the Hydrological Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jian; Chadwick, Robin; Seo, Kyong-Hwan; Dong, Changming; Huang, Gang; Foltz, Gregory R.; Jiang, Jonathan H.

2018-05-01

This review describes the climate change–induced responses of the tropical atmospheric circulation and their impacts on the hydrological cycle. We depict the theoretically predicted changes and diagnose physical mechanisms for observational and model-projected trends in large-scale and regional climate. The tropical circulation slows down with moisture and stratification changes, connecting to a poleward expansion of the Hadley cells and a shift of the intertropical convergence zone. Redistributions of regional precipitation consist of thermodynamic and dynamical components, including a strong offset between moisture increase and circulation weakening throughout the tropics. This allows other dynamical processes to dominate local circulation changes, such as a surface warming pattern effect over oceans and multiple mechanisms over land. To improve reliability in climate projections, more fundamental understandings of pattern formation, circulation change, and the balance of various processes redistributing land rainfall are suggested to be important.

Arctic Climate and Atmospheric Planetary Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cavalieri, D. J.; Haekkinen, S.

2000-01-01

Analysis of a fifty-year record (1946-1995) of monthly-averaged sea level pressure data provides a link between the phases of planetary-scale sea level pressure waves and Arctic Ocean and ice variability. Results of this analysis show: (1) a breakdown of the dominant wave I pattern in the late 1960's, (2) shifts in the mean phase of waves 1 and 2 since this breakdown, (3) an eastward shift in the phases of both waves 1 and 2 during the years of simulated cyclonic Arctic Ocean circulation relative to their phases during the years of anticyclonic circulation, (4) a strong decadal variability of wave phase associated with simulated Arctic Ocean circulation changes. Finally, the Arctic atmospheric circulation patterns that emerge when waves 1 and 2 are in their extreme eastern and western positions suggest an alternative approach to determine significant forcing patterns of sea ice and high-latitude variability.

Circulation in the Philippine Archipelago. Simulated by 1/12 deg. and 1/25 deg. Global HYCOM and EAS NCOM

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-01

DATE (DD-MM- YYYY) 02-16-2011 2. REPORT TYPE Journal Article 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Circulation in the... circulation . This archipelago provides two secondary routes for both the Indonesian throughflow and the western boundary current of the Pacific...Philippine Archipelago circulation , Philippine straits, Mindoro Strait transport, Indonesian throughflow 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: a

Self-Care Guide for the Heart Failure Patient

MedlinePlus

... Bridging Disciplines Circulation at Major Meetings Special Themed Issues Global Impact of the 2017 ACC/AHA Hypertension Guidelines Circulation Supplements Cardiovascular Case Series ECG Challenge Hospitals of History Brigham and ...

Coronary Artery Revascularization in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus

MedlinePlus

... Bridging Disciplines Circulation at Major Meetings Special Themed Issues Global Impact of the 2017 ACC/AHA Hypertension Guidelines Circulation Supplements Cardiovascular Case Series ECG Challenge Hospitals of History Brigham and ...

Screening for Critical Congenital Heart Disease in Newborns

MedlinePlus

... Bridging Disciplines Circulation at Major Meetings Special Themed Issues Global Impact of the 2017 ACC/AHA Hypertension Guidelines Circulation Supplements Cardiovascular Case Series ECG Challenge Hospitals of History Brigham and ...

Human Coronavirus NL63 Molecular Epidemiology and Evolutionary Patterns in Rural Coastal Kenya.

PubMed

Kiyuka, Patience K; Agoti, Charles N; Munywoki, Patrick K; Njeru, Regina; Bett, Anne; Otieno, James R; Otieno, Grieven P; Kamau, Everlyn; Clark, Taane G; van der Hoek, Lia; Kellam, Paul; Nokes, D James; Cotten, Matthew

2018-05-05

Human coronavirus NL63 (HCoV-NL63) is a globally endemic pathogen causing mild and severe respiratory tract infections with reinfections occurring repeatedly throughout a lifetime. Nasal samples were collected in coastal Kenya through community-based and hospital-based surveillance. HCoV-NL63 was detected with multiplex real-time reverse transcription PCR, and positive samples were targeted for nucleotide sequencing of the spike (S) protein. Additionally, paired samples from 25 individuals with evidence of repeat HCoV-NL63 infection were selected for whole-genome virus sequencing. HCoV-NL63 was detected in 1.3% (75/5573) of child pneumonia admissions. Two HCoV-NL63 genotypes circulated in Kilifi between 2008 and 2014. Full genome sequences formed a monophyletic clade closely related to contemporary HCoV-NL63 from other global locations. An unexpected pattern of repeat infections was observed with some individuals showing higher viral titers during their second infection. Similar patterns for 2 other endemic coronaviruses, HCoV-229E and HCoV-OC43, were observed. Repeat infections by HCoV-NL63 were not accompanied by detectable genotype switching. In this coastal Kenya setting, HCoV-NL63 exhibited low prevalence in hospital pediatric pneumonia admissions. Clade persistence with low genetic diversity suggest limited immune selection, and absence of detectable clade switching in reinfections indicates initial exposure was insufficient to elicit a protective immune response.

The Use of Principal Components in Long-Range Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chern, Jonq-Gong

Large-scale modes of the global sea surface temperatures and the Northern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation are described by principal component analysis. The first and the second SST components well describe the El Nino episodes, and the El Nino index (ENI), suggested in this study, is consistent with the winter Southern Oscillation index (SOI), where this ENI is a composite component of the weighted first and second SST components. The large-scale interactive modes of the coupling ocean-atmosphere system are identified by cross-correlation analysis The result shows that the first SST component is strongly correlated with the first component of geopotential height in lead time of 6 months. In the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolution, the El Nino mode strongly influences the winter tropospheric circulation in the mid -latitudes for up to three leading seasons. The regional long-range variation of climate is investigated with these major components of the SST and the tropospheric circulation. In the mid-latitude, the climate of the central United States shows a weak linkage with these large-scale circulations, and the climate of the western United States appears to be consistently associated with the ENSO modes. These El Nino modes also show a dominant influence on Eastern Asia as evidenced in Taiwan Mei-Yu patterns. Possible regional long-range forecasting schemes, utilizing the complementary characteristics of the winter El Nino mode and SST anomalies, are examined with the Taiwan Mei-Yu.

Interior Pathways to Dissipation of Mesoscale Energy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nadiga, Balasubramanya T.

This talk at Goethe University asks What Powers Overturning Circulation? How does Ocean Circulation Equilibrate? There is a HUGE reservoir of energy sitting in the interior ocean. Can fluid dynamic instabilities contribute to the mixing required to drive global overturning circulation? Study designed to eliminate distinguished horizontal surfaces such as bottom BL and surface layer

Decline of the marine ecosystem caused by a reduction in the Atlantic overturning circulation.

PubMed

Schmittner, Andreas

2005-03-31

Reorganizations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation were associated with large and abrupt climatic changes in the North Atlantic region during the last glacial period. Projections with climate models suggest that similar reorganizations may also occur in response to anthropogenic global warming. Here I use ensemble simulations with a coupled climate-ecosystem model of intermediate complexity to investigate the possible consequences of such disturbances to the marine ecosystem. In the simulations, a disruption of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation leads to a collapse of the North Atlantic plankton stocks to less than half of their initial biomass, owing to rapid shoaling of winter mixed layers and their associated separation from the deep ocean nutrient reservoir. Globally integrated export production declines by more than 20 per cent owing to reduced upwelling of nutrient-rich deep water and gradual depletion of upper ocean nutrient concentrations. These model results are consistent with the available high-resolution palaeorecord, and suggest that global ocean productivity is sensitive to changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

Mars Pathfinder meteorological observations on the basis of results of an atmospheric global circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forget, Francois; Hourdin, F.; Talagrand, O.

1994-01-01

The Mars Pathfinder Meteorological Package (ASI/MET) will measure the local pressure, temperature, and winds at its future landing site, somewhere between the latitudes 0 deg N and 30 deg N. Comparable measurements have already been obtained at the surface of Mars by the Viking Landers at 22 deg N (VL1) and 48 deg N (VL2), providing much useful information on the martian atmosphere. In particular the pressure measurements contain very instructive information on the global atmospheric circulation. At the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD), we have analyzed and simulated these measurements with a martian atmospheric global circulation model (GCM), which was the first to simulate the martian atmospheric circulation over more than 1 year. The model is able to reproduce rather accurately many observed features of the martian atmosphere, including the long- and short-period oscillations of the surface pressure observed by the Viking landers. From a meteorological point of view, we think that a landing site located near or at the equator would be an interesting choice.

On the Use of Satellite Altimetry to Detect Ocean Circulation's Magnetic Signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saynisch, J.; Irrgang, C.; Thomas, M.

2018-03-01

Oceanic magnetic signals are sensitive to ocean velocity, salinity, and heat content. The detection of respective signals with global satellite magnetometers would pose a very valuable source of information. While tidal magnetic fields are already detected, electromagnetic signals of the ocean circulation still remain unobserved from space. We propose to use satellite altimetry to construct proxy magnetic signals of the ocean circulation. These proxy time series could subsequently be fitted to satellite magnetometer data. The fitted data could be removed from the observations or the fitting constants could be analyzed for physical properties of the ocean, e.g., the heat budget. To test and evaluate this approach, synthetic true and proxy magnetic signals are derived from a global circulation model of the ocean. Both data sets are compared in dependence of location and time scale. We study and report when and where the proxy data describe the true signal sufficiently well. Correlations above 0.6 and explained variances of above 80% can be reported for large parts of the Antarctic ocean, thus explaining the major part of the global, subseasonal magnetic signal.

The future of spaceborne altimetry. Oceans and climate change: A long-term strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koblinsky, C. J. (Editor); Gaspar, P. (Editor); Lagerloef, G. (Editor)

1992-01-01

The ocean circulation and polar ice sheet volumes provide important memory and control functions in the global climate. Their long term variations are unknown and need to be understood before meaningful appraisals of climate change can be made. Satellite altimetry is the only method for providing global information on the ocean circulation and ice sheet volume. A robust altimeter measurement program is planned which will initiate global observations of the ocean circulation and polar ice sheets. In order to provide useful data about the climate, these measurements must be continued with unbroken coverage into the next century. Herein, past results of the role of the ocean in the climate system is summarized, near term goals are outlined, and requirements and options are presented for future altimeter missions. There are three basic scientific objectives for the program: ocean circulation; polar ice sheets; and mean sea level change. The greatest scientific benefit will be achieved with a series of dedicated high precision altimeter spacecraft, for which the choice of orbit parameters and system accuracy are unencumbered by requirements of companion instruments.

Regolith-atmosphere exchange of water in Mars' recent past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steele, Liam J.; Balme, Matthew R.; Lewis, Stephen R.

2017-03-01

We investigate the exchange of water vapour between the regolith and atmosphere of Mars, and how it varies with different orbital parameters, atmospheric dust contents and surface water ice reservoirs. This is achieved through the coupling of a global circulation model (GCM) and a regolith diffusion model. GCM simulations are performed for hundreds of Mars years, with additional one-dimensional simulations performed for 50 kyr. At obliquities ɛ =15∘ and 30°, the thermal inertia and albedo of the regolith have more control on the subsurface water distribution than changes to the eccentricity or solar longitude of perihelion. At ɛ =45∘ , atmospheric water vapour abundances become much larger, allowing stable subsurface ice to form in the tropics and mid-latitudes. The circulation of the atmosphere is important in producing the subsurface water distribution, with increased water content in various locations due to vapour transport by topographically-steered flows and stationary waves. As these circulation patterns are due to topographic features, it is likely the same regions will also experience locally large amounts of subsurface water at different epochs. The dustiness of the atmosphere plays an important role in the distribution of subsurface water, with a dusty atmosphere resulting in a wetter water cycle and increased stability of subsurface ice deposits.

Extracting quasi-steady Lagrangian transport patterns from the ocean circulation: An application to the Gulf of Mexico.

PubMed

Duran, R; Beron-Vera, F J; Olascoaga, M J

2018-03-26

We construct a climatology of Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs)-the concealed skeleton that shapes transport-with a twelve-year-long data-assimilative simulation of the sea-surface circulation in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). Computed as time-mean Cauchy-Green strain tensorlines of the climatological velocity, the climatological LCSs (cLCSs) unveil recurrent Lagrangian circulation patterns. The cLCSs strongly constrain the ensemble-mean Lagrangian circulation of the instantaneous model velocity, showing that a climatological velocity can preserve meaningful transport information. The quasi-steady transport patterns revealed by the cLCSs agree well with aspects of the GoM circulation described in several previous observational and numerical studies. For example, the cLCSs identify regions of persistent isolation, and suggest that coastal regions previously identified as high-risk for pollution impact are regions of maximal attraction. We also show that cLCSs are remarkably accurate at identifying transport patterns observed during the Deepwater Horizon and Ixtoc oil spills, and during the Grand LAgrangian Deployment (GLAD) experiment. Thus it is shown that computing cLCSs is an efficient and meaningful way of synthesizing vast amounts of Lagrangian information. The cLCS method confirms previous GoM studies, and contributes to our understanding by revealing the persistent nature of the dynamics and kinematics treated therein.

Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability. Chapter 5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perlwitz, J.; Knutson, T.; Kossin, J. P.; LeGrande, A. N.

2017-01-01

The causes of regional climate trends cannot be understood without considering the impact of variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation and an assessment of the role of internally generated climate variability. There are contributions to regional climate trends from changes in large-scale latitudinal circulation, which is generally organized into three cells in each hemisphere-Hadley cell, Ferrell cell and Polar cell-and which determines the location of subtropical dry zones and midlatitude jet streams. These circulation cells are expected to shift poleward during warmer periods, which could result in poleward shifts in precipitation patterns, affecting natural ecosystems, agriculture, and water resources. In addition, regional climate can be strongly affected by non-local responses to recurring patterns (or modes) of variability of the atmospheric circulation or the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. These modes of variability represent preferred spatial patterns and their temporal variation. They account for gross features in variance and for teleconnections which describe climate links between geographically separated regions. Modes of variability are often described as a product of a spatial climate pattern and an associated climate index time series that are identified based on statistical methods like Principal Component Analysis (PC analysis), which is also called Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis (EOF analysis), and cluster analysis.

Linking the South Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the Global Monsoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, H.; Dong, S.; Goni, G. J.; Lee, S. K.

2016-02-01

This study tested the hypothesis whether low frequency decadal variability of the South Atlantic meridional heat transport (SAMHT) influences decadal variability of the global monsoons. A multi-century run from a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model is used as basis for the analysis. Our findings indicate that multi-decadal variability of the South Atlantic Ocean plays a key role in modulating atmospheric circulation via interhemispheric changes in Atlantic Ocean heat content. Weaker SAMHT produces anomalous ocean heat divergence over the South Atlantic resulting in negative ocean heat content anomaly about 15 years later. This, in turn, forces a thermally direct anomalous interhemispheric Hadley circulation in the atmosphere, transporting heat from the northern hemisphere (NH) to the southern hemisphere (SH) and moisture from the SH to the NH, thereby intensify (weaken) summer (winter) monsoon in the NH and winter (summer) monsoon in the SH. Results also show that anomalous atmospheric eddies, both transient and stationary, transport heat northward in both hemispheres producing eddy heat flux convergence (divergence) in the NH (SH) around 15-30°, reinforcing the anomalous Hadley circulation. Overall, SAMHT decadal variability leads its atmospheric response by about 15 years, suggesting that the South Atlantic is a potential predictor of global climate variability.

Benthic exchange and biogeochemical cycling in permeable sediments.

PubMed

Huettel, Markus; Berg, Peter; Kostka, Joel E

2014-01-01

The sandy sediments that blanket the inner shelf are situated in a zone where nutrient input from land and strong mixing produce maximum primary production and tight coupling between water column and sedimentary processes. The high permeability of the shelf sands renders them susceptible to pressure gradients generated by hydrodynamic and biological forces that modulate spatial and temporal patterns of water circulation through these sediments. The resulting dynamic three-dimensional patterns of particle and solute distribution generate a broad spectrum of biogeochemical reaction zones that facilitate effective decomposition of the pelagic and benthic primary production products. The intricate coupling between the water column and sediment makes it challenging to quantify the production and decomposition processes and the resultant fluxes in permeable shelf sands. Recent technical developments have led to insights into the high biogeochemical and biological activity of these permeable sediments and their role in the global cycles of matter.

The forcing of southwestern Asia teleconnections by low-frequency sea surface temperature variability during boreal winter

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoell, Andrew; Funk, Christopher C.; Mathew Barlow,

2015-01-01

Southwestern Asia, defined here as the domain bounded by 20°–40°N and 40°–70°E, which includes the nations of Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, is a water-stressed and semiarid region that receives roughly 75% of its annual rainfall during November–April. The November–April climate of southwestern Asia is strongly influenced by tropical Indo-Pacific variability on intraseasonal and interannual time scales, much of which can be attributed to sea surface temperature (SST) variations. The influences of lower-frequency SST variability on southwestern Asia climate during November–April Pacific decadal SST (PDSST) variability and the long-term trend in SST (LTSST) is examined. The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program (CLIVAR) Drought Working Group forced global atmospheric climate models with PDSST and LTSST patterns, identified using empirical orthogonal functions, to show the steady atmospheric response to these modes of decadal to multidecadal SST variability. During November–April, LTSST forces an anticyclone over southwestern Asia, which results in reduced precipitation and increases in surface temperature. The precipitation and tropospheric circulation influences of LTSST are corroborated by independent observed precipitation and circulation datasets during 1901–2004. The decadal variations of southwestern Asia precipitation may be forced by PDSST variability, with two of the three models indicating that the cold phase of PDSST forces an anticyclone and precipitation reductions. However, there are intermodel circulation variations to PDSST that influence subregional precipitation patterns over the Middle East, southwestern Asia, and subtropical Asia. Changes in wintertime temperature and precipitation over southwestern Asia forced by LTSST and PDSST imply important changes to the land surface hydrology during the spring and summer.

Impact of tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature biases on the simulated atmospheric circulation and precipitation over the Atlantic region: An ECHAM6 model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eichhorn, Astrid; Bader, Jürgen

2017-09-01

As many coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, the coupled Earth System Model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology suffers from severe sea-surface temperature (SST) biases in the tropical Atlantic. We performed a set of SST sensitivity experiments with its atmospheric model component ECHAM6 to understand the impact of tropical Atlantic SST biases on atmospheric circulation and precipitation. The model was forced by a climatology of observed global SSTs to focus on simulated seasonal and annual mean state climate. Through the superposition of varying tropical Atlantic bias patterns extracted from the MPI-ESM on top of the control field, this study investigates the relevance of the seasonal variation and spatial structure of tropical Atlantic biases for the simulated response. Results show that the position and structure of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) across the Atlantic is significantly affected, exhibiting a dynamically forced shift of annual mean precipitation maximum to the east of the Atlantic basin as well as a southward shift of the oceanic rain belt. The SST-induced changes in the ITCZ in turn affect seasonal rainfall over adjacent continents. However not only the ITCZ position but also other effects arising from biases in tropical Atlantic SSTs, e.g. variations in the wind field, change the simulation of precipitation over land. The seasonal variation and spatial pattern of tropical Atlantic SST biases turns out to be crucial for the simulated atmospheric response and is essential for analyzing the contribution of SST biases to coupled model mean state biases. Our experiments show that MPI-ESM mean-state biases in the Atlantic sector are mainly driven by SST biases in the tropical Atlantic while teleconnections from other basins seem to play a minor role.

Testing the fidelity of laminations as a proxy for oxygen concentration in the Bering Sea over millennial to orbital timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Black, A. E.; Baranow, N.; Amdur, S.; Cook, M. S.

2017-12-01

Ocean circulation and biological productivity play an important role in the climate system through their contribution to global heat transport and air-sea exchange of CO­2. Oceanic oxygen concentration provides insight to ocean circulation and biological productivity. Sediment laminations provide a valuable proxy for local oceanic oxygen concentration. Many sediment cores from the Pacific Ocean are laminated from the last deglaciation, but previous studies have not provided an in-depth examination of laminations over many glacial and interglacial (G/IG) cycles. Typically, studies to date that consider bioturbation as a proxy for oxygen concentration have only considered one sediment core from a site, leaving ambiguity as to whether laminations faithfully record local oxygen levels. With sediment cores from three different holes (A, C, D) on the northern Bering Slope from IODP site U1345 (1008m), we investigate how faithfully laminations record oxygen concentration. We assign a bioturbation index from 1 to 4 for 1-cm intervals for the cores from each of the three holes and align the holes based on physical properties data. We find that the bioturbation is relatively consistent (within one bioturbation unit) between holes, suggesting that laminations may be a faithful, if not perfect, proxy for local oxygen concentration. After examining laminations from a complete hole, representing over 500,000 years, there seems to be no consistent pattern of laminations during the past five glacial cycles, suggesting there is no consistent pattern to oxygen concentration during glacial periods in the northern Bering Slope. Thus, hypotheses on ocean circulation and productivity in the northern Bering Sea from the last deglaciation may not apply to previous G/IG cycles.

Pacific Circulation and the Resilience of its Equatorial Reefs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, A. L.; Drenkard, E.

2012-12-01

High rates of calcification by tropical reef-building corals are paramount to the maintenance of healthy reefs. Investigations of the impact of ocean acidification in both laboratory and field studies demonstrate unequivocally the dependence of coral and coral reef calcification on the carbonate ion concentration of seawater, a dependence predicted by fundamental laws of physical chemistry. Nevertheless, results from a new generation of experiments that exploit the biology of coral calcification, suggest that effects of ocean acidification can - in some instances - be mitigated with simultaneous manipulation of multiple factors. These laboratory results imply that coral reefs in regions projected to experience changes in, for example, nutrient delivery, light and flow, in addition to pH and carbonate ion concentration, may be more resilient (or vulnerable) to the effects of ocean acidification alone. If demonstrated to be true, these observations have profound implications for the conservation and management of coral reefs in the 21st century. We quantified spatial and temporal variability in rates of calcification of a dominant Indo-Pacific reef building coral across sites where changes in ocean circulation patterns drive variability in multiple physical, chemical and biological parameters. Such changes are occurring against a background of variability and trends in carbonate system chemistry. Our field data provide support for hypotheses based on laboratory observations, and show that impacts of ocean acidification on coral calcification can be partially and in some cases, fully, offset by simultaneous changes in multiple factors. Our results imply that projected changes in oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns, driven by global warming, must be considered when predicting coral reef resilience, or vulnerability, to 21st century ocean acidification.

Linking storm surge activity and circulation variability along the Spanish coast through a synoptic pattern classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasilla Álvarez, Domingo; Garcia Codrón, Juan Carlos

2010-05-01

The potentially negative consequences resulting from the estimations of global sea level rising along the current century are a matter of serious concern in many coastal areas worldwide. Most of the negative consequences of the sea level variability, such as flooding or erosion, are linked to episodic events of strong atmospheric forcing represented by deep atmospheric disturbances, especially if they combine with extreme astronomical high tides. Moreover, the interaction between the prevailing flows during such events and the actual orientation of the coast line might accelerate or mitigate such impacts. This contribution analyses sea surge variations measured at five tide-gauge stations located around the Iberian Peninsula and their relationships with regional scale circulation patterns with local-scale winds. Its aim is to improve the knowledge of surge related-coastal-risks by analysing the relationship between surges and their atmospheric forcing factors at different spatial scales. The oceanographic data set consists of hourly data from 5 tide gauge stations (Santander, Vigo, Bonanza, Málaga, Valencia and Barcelona) disseminated along the Spanish coastline, provided by Puertos del Estado. To explore the atmospheric mechanisms responsible for the sign and magnitude of sea surges, a regional Eulerian approach (a synoptic typing) were combined with a larger-scale Lagrangian method, based on the analysis of storm-tracks over the Atlantic and local information (synop reports) obtained from the closest meteorological stations to the tide gauges. The synoptic catalogue was obtained following a procedure that combines Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for reduction purposes and clustering (Ward plus K-means) to define the circulation types. Sea level pressure, surface 10m U and V wind components gridded data were obtained from NCEP Reanalysis, while storm tracks and cyclone statistics were extracted from the CDC Map Room Climate Products Storm Track Data (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/st_data.html). The second task was to evaluate the performance of each circulation type on the spatial patterns of a daily fire danger risk index (Canadian Fire Weather Index, FWI). Finally, anomaly maps of several surface and low level climate variables, corresponding to the dates of ignition of the very large forest fires within each synoptic pattern, were calculated to provide insight of the specific conditions associated to those extreme events. A principal component analysis upon 6 hourly residuals highlighted the homogeneous behaviour of the tide gauges and provided a regional quantitative index to identify the largest storm surges. The leading PCA displayed a homogeneous spatial pattern, describing the low frequency variability along the entire coast, in spite of different orientations of the coast, accounting for more than 80% of the total variability. The second PCA displayed opposite phases between the Atlantic and the Mediterranean. Furthermore, the results suggest that surges are a regional rather than local phenomenon, probably related to the same single physical forcing. The comparison between extreme surge events and circulation patterns highlighted that single physical mechanism is represented by extratropical cyclonic disturbances located at the north-western corner of the Iberian Peninsula, responsible for an environment characterized by low pressure readings and westerly-southwesterly winds. That wind pattern acquires an onshore component in the Atlantic coast, but becomes offshore in the Mediterranean. So, the main mechanism responsible for those storm surges is the inverse barometer effect, being the wind dragging secondary. The main physical forcing of the storm surges, the extratropical cyclones, have experience a reduction of this frequency and a marked reduction in their strength since 1950, replaced by stable circulations. Both conditions suggest a long term reduction of the frequency and the magnitude of storm surges.

Australian shelf sediments reveal shifts in Miocene Southern Hemisphere westerlies

PubMed Central

Groeneveld, Jeroen; Henderiks, Jorijntje; Renema, Willem; McHugh, Cecilia M.; De Vleeschouwer, David; Christensen, Beth A.; Fulthorpe, Craig S.; Reuning, Lars; Gallagher, Stephen J.; Bogus, Kara; Auer, Gerald; Ishiwa, Takeshige

2017-01-01

Global climate underwent a major reorganization when the Antarctic ice sheet expanded ~14 million years ago (Ma) (1). This event affected global atmospheric circulation, including the strength and position of the westerlies and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and, therefore, precipitation patterns (2–5). We present new shallow-marine sediment records from the continental shelf of Australia (International Ocean Discovery Program Sites U1459 and U1464) providing the first empirical evidence linking high-latitude cooling around Antarctica to climate change in the (sub)tropics during the Miocene. We show that Western Australia was arid during most of the Middle Miocene. Southwest Australia became wetter during the Late Miocene, creating a climate gradient with the arid interior, whereas northwest Australia remained arid throughout. Precipitation and river runoff in southwest Australia gradually increased from 12 to 8 Ma, which we relate to a northward migration or intensification of the westerlies possibly due to increased sea ice in the Southern Ocean (5). Abrupt aridification indicates that the westerlies shifted back to a position south of Australia after 8 Ma. Our midlatitude Southern Hemisphere data are consistent with the inference that expansion of sea ice around Antarctica resulted in a northward movement of the westerlies. In turn, this may have pushed tropical atmospheric circulation and the ITCZ northward, shifting the main precipitation belt over large parts of Southeast Asia (4). PMID:28508066

Global Ocean Circulation During Cretaceous Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haupt, B. J.; Seidov, D.

2001-12-01

Present--day global thermohaline ocean circulation (TOC) is usually associated with high--latitude deep-water formation due to surface cooling. In this understanding of the TOC driven by the deep--water production, the warm deep ocean during Mesozoic--Cenozoic time is a challenge. It may be questioned whether warm deep--ocean water, which is direct geologic evidence, does reflect warm polar surface--ocean regions. For the warm Cretaceous, it is difficult to maintain strong poleward heat transport in the case of reduced oceanic thermal contrasts. Usually, atmospheric feedbacks, in conjunction with the increase of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, are employed in order to explain the warm equable Cretaceous--Eocene climate. However, there is no feasible physical mechanism that could maintain warm subpolar surface oceans in both hemispheres, an assumption often used in atmospheric modeling. Our numerical experiments indicate that having a relatively cool but saltier high--latitude sea surface in at least one hemisphere is sufficient for driving a strong meridional overturning. Thus freshwater impacts in the high latitudes may be responsible for a vigorous conveyor capable of maintaining sufficient poleward oceanic heat transport needed to keep the polar oceans ice--free. These results imply that evaporation-precipitation patterns during warm climates are especially important climatic factors that can redistribute freshwater to create hemispheric asymmetry of sea surface conditions capable of generating a sufficiently strong TOC, otherwise impossible in warm climates.

Marine heatwaves off eastern Tasmania: Trends, interannual variability, and predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliver, Eric C. J.; Lago, Véronique; Hobday, Alistair J.; Holbrook, Neil J.; Ling, Scott D.; Mundy, Craig N.

2018-02-01

Surface waters off eastern Tasmania are a global warming hotspot. Here, mean temperatures have been rising over several decades at nearly four times the global average rate, with concomitant changes in extreme temperatures - marine heatwaves. These changes have recently caused the marine biodiversity, fisheries and aquaculture industries off Tasmania's east coast to come under stress. In this study we quantify the long-term trends, variability and predictability of marine heatwaves off eastern Tasmania. We use a high-resolution ocean model for Tasmania's eastern continental shelf. The ocean state over the 1993-2015 period is hindcast, providing daily estimates of the three-dimensional temperature and circulation fields. Marine heatwaves are identified at the surface and subsurface from ocean temperature time series using a consistent definition. Trends in marine heatwave frequency are positive nearly everywhere and annual marine heatwave days and penetration depths indicate significant positive changes, particularly off southeastern Tasmania. A decomposition into modes of variability indicates that the East Australian Current is the dominant driver of marine heatwaves across the domain. Self-organising maps are used to identify 12 marine heatwave types, each with its own regionality, seasonality, and associated large-scale oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns. The implications of this work for marine ecosystems and their management were revealed through review of past impacts and stakeholder discussions regarding use of these data.

Seasonal circulation patterns of the Yellow and East China Seas derived from satellite-tracked drifter trajectories and hydrographic observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lie, Heung-Jae; Cho, Cheol-Ho

2016-08-01

We investigated seasonal circulation patterns of the Yellow and East China Seas (YECS), by reviewing previous works on the circulation and its dominant currents, and taking into account newly-compiled trajectories of satellite-tracked drifters collected between the 1980s and 2000s. The circulation patterns suggested before the 1990s can be categorized into two groups, depending on the identified origin of the Tsushima Warm Current in the Korea-Tsushima Straits: (i) branching from the Kuroshio southwest of Kyushu, or (ii) northeastward continuation of the Taiwan Strait throughflow. The branching of the Kuroshio southwest of Kyushu and northeast of Taiwan was clearly evidenced by current measurements and concurrent hydrographic surveys. However, there is still no clear evidence for the northeastward pathway of Taiwan Strait throughflow across the mid-shelf area of the East China Sea. Target-oriented surveys in the 1990s and 2000s employing advanced instruments, such as drifter tracking and acoustic Doppler current profiler measurements, now provide decisive proof of the clockwise rounding of the Cheju Warm Current around Jeju-do throughout the year, of the northeastward extension of Changjiang discharge in summer, and of the presence of the Yellow Sea Warm Current only in winter. Thus, both coastal currents in shallow water and secondary branch currents of the Kuroshio (such as the Yellow Sea Warm Current) are found to significantly change from winter to summer. To better present the basic pattern of YECS circulation and its seasonality, we have constructed seasonal circulations patterns, based on review results, on the newly-compiled drifter trajectories, and on hydrographic observations. Further investigations should be carried out in future, with support of comprehensive current measurements on shelf areas and through elaborate numerical modeling.

Successive Respiratory Syncytial Virus Epidemics in Local Populations Arise from Multiple Variant Introductions, Providing Insights into Virus Persistence

PubMed Central

Otieno, James R.; Ngama, Mwanajuma; Mwihuri, Alexander G.; Medley, Graham F.; Cane, Patricia A.; Nokes, D. James

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a global respiratory pathogen of humans, with infection occurring characteristically as recurrent seasonal epidemics. Unlike influenza viruses, little attention has been paid to the mechanism underlying worldwide spread and persistence of RSV and how this may be discerned through an improved understanding of the introduction and persistence of RSV in local communities. We analyzed 651 attachment (G) glycoprotein nucleotide sequences of RSV B collected over 11 epidemics (2002 to 2012) in Kilifi, Kenya, and contemporaneous data collected elsewhere in Kenya and 18 other countries worldwide (2002 to 2012). Based on phylogeny, genetic distance and clustering patterns, we set out pragmatic criteria to classify local viruses into distinct genotypes and variants, identifying those newly introduced and those locally persisting. Three genotypes were identified in the Kilifi data set: BA (n = 500), SAB1 (n = 148), and SAB4 (n = 3). Recurrent RSV epidemics in the local population were composed of numerous genetic variants, most of which have been newly introduced rather than persisting in the location from season to season. Global comparison revealed that (i) most Kilifi variants do not cluster closely with strains from outside Kenya, (ii) some Kilifi variants were closely related to those observed outside Kenya (mostly Western Europe), and (iii) many variants were circulating elsewhere but were never detected in Kilifi. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that year-to-year presence of RSV at the local level (i.e., Kilifi) is achieved primarily, but not exclusively, through introductions from a pool of variants that are geographically restricted (i.e., to Kenya or to the region) rather than global. IMPORTANCE The mechanism by which RSV persists and reinvades local populations is poorly understood. We investigated this by studying the temporal patterns of RSV variants in a rural setting in tropical Africa and comparing these variants with contemporaneous variants circulating in other countries. We found that periodic seasonal RSV transmission at the local level appears to require regular new introductions of variants. However, importantly, the evidence suggests that the source of new variants is mostly geographically restricted, and we hypothesize that year-to-year RSV persistence is at the country level rather than the global level. This has implications for control. PMID:26355091

Visitor circulation and nonhuman animal welfare: an overlooked variable?

PubMed

Davey, Gareth; Henzi, Peter

2004-01-01

This article investigates visitor circulation and behaviors within a gallery of primate exhibits in relation to their possible implications for nonhuman animal welfare. When entering a primate house, the majority of visitors (84%) turned right, a pattern upheld throughout all times of the day. These findings demonstrate the existence of the "right-turn" principle, a concept previously identified and investigated in the museum setting. The existence of this circulation pattern in zoos has important implications for the practical management of animal welfare issues because unbalanced or large numbers of visitors at specific enclosures could present a stressful influence. The "direction bias" could not be attributed to demographic or behavioral traits, therefore suggesting that the principle, like similar findings from museum research, generalizes across visitor populations and, therefore, zoos. A visitor sample at another exhibit (located outside the exhibit gallery) did not display a direction bias, suggesting that the marked circulation pattern may be specific to exhibit galleries. The article discusses the significance and consequences of visitor circulation with respect to visitor management and animal welfare.

40 CFR 230.23 - Current patterns and water circulation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Current patterns and water circulation. 230.23 Section 230.23 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) OCEAN DUMPING SECTION 404(b)(1) GUIDELINES FOR SPECIFICATION OF DISPOSAL SITES FOR DREDGED OR FILL MATERIAL Potential Impacts on Physical and Chemical...

40 CFR 230.23 - Current patterns and water circulation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 24 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Current patterns and water circulation. 230.23 Section 230.23 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) OCEAN DUMPING SECTION 404(b)(1) GUIDELINES FOR SPECIFICATION OF DISPOSAL SITES FOR DREDGED OR FILL MATERIAL Potential Impacts on Physical and Chemical...

Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change

PubMed Central

O’Gorman, Paul A.

2010-01-01

Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate change, and that the seasonal cycle of storm-track intensity increases in amplitude in both hemispheres. I use observations of the present-day seasonal cycle to confirm the relationship between storm-track intensity and the mean available potential energy of the atmosphere, and show how this quantitative relationship can be used to account for much of the varied response in storm-track intensity to global warming, including substantially different responses in simulations with different climate models. The results suggest that storm-track intensity is not related in a simple way to global-mean surface temperature, so that, for example, a stronger southern storm track in response to present-day global warming does not imply it was also stronger in hothouse climates of the past. PMID:20974916

Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change.

PubMed

O'Gorman, Paul A

2010-11-09

Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate change, and that the seasonal cycle of storm-track intensity increases in amplitude in both hemispheres. I use observations of the present-day seasonal cycle to confirm the relationship between storm-track intensity and the mean available potential energy of the atmosphere, and show how this quantitative relationship can be used to account for much of the varied response in storm-track intensity to global warming, including substantially different responses in simulations with different climate models. The results suggest that storm-track intensity is not related in a simple way to global-mean surface temperature, so that, for example, a stronger southern storm track in response to present-day global warming does not imply it was also stronger in hothouse climates of the past.

What You Need to Know If You Have Coronary Artery Disease

MedlinePlus

... Bridging Disciplines Circulation at Major Meetings Special Themed Issues Global Impact of the 2017 ACC/AHA Hypertension Guidelines Circulation Supplements Cardiovascular Case Series ECG Challenge Hospitals of History Brigham and ...

3D Visualization of Global Ocean Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, V. G.; Sharma, R.; Zhang, E.; Schmittner, A.; Jenny, B.

2015-12-01

Advanced 3D visualization techniques are seldom used to explore the dynamic behavior of ocean circulation. Streamlines are an effective method for visualization of flow, and they can be designed to clearly show the dynamic behavior of a fluidic system. We employ vector field editing and extraction software to examine the topology of velocity vector fields generated by a 3D global circulation model coupled to a one-layer atmosphere model simulating preindustrial and last glacial maximum (LGM) conditions. This results in a streamline-based visualization along multiple density isosurfaces on which we visualize points of vertical exchange and the distribution of properties such as temperature and biogeochemical tracers. Previous work involving this model examined the change in the energetics driving overturning circulation and mixing between simulations of LGM and preindustrial conditions. This visualization elucidates the relationship between locations of vertical exchange and mixing, as well as demonstrates the effects of circulation and mixing on the distribution of tracers such as carbon isotopes.

Numerical simulation on the southern flood and northern drought in summer 2014 over Eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Lianlian; He, Shengping; Li, Fei; Ma, Jiehua; Wang, Huijun

2017-12-01

In summer 2014, Eastern China suffered a typical "southern flood and northern drought" anomalous climate. Observational analyses indicated that the anomalous vertical motion, East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream, and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) played important roles in the formation of such precipitation anomaly. Furthermore, using the climate model (IAP-AGCM-4.1) perturbed by simultaneous observed sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in global scale and four different regions (North Pacific, Indian Ocean, North Atlantic, and Equatorial Pacific), this study investigated the potential contribution of ocean to such "southern flood and northern drought" over Eastern China in summer 2014. The simulations forced by global-scale SSTAs or North Pacific SSTAs displayed the most similarity to the observed "southern flood and northern drought" over Eastern China. It was revealed that the global-scale and North Pacific SSTAs influenced the rainfall over Eastern China via modulating the EASM. The related simulations successfully reproduced the associated atmospheric circulation anomalies. The experiment driven by Indian Ocean SSTAs could also reproduce the similar precipitation anomaly pattern and suggested that the Indian Ocean exerted pronounced influence on the North Pacific Subtropical High. Additionally, the simulations forced by SSTAs in the North Atlantic and Equatorial Pacific successfully reproduced the northern drought but failed to capture the southern flood. The simulations suggested that precipitation anomaly over Eastern China in summer 2014 was a comprehensive effect of global SSTAs and the dominant contribution to the "southern flood and northern drought" pattern came from the North Pacific and Indian Ocean.

Tropical Cyclone Genesis and Sudden Changes of Track and Intensity in the Western Pacific

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-30

North Atlantic . (Published in 2008) Our work on the effect of internally generated inner-core asymmetries on tropical cyclone potential intensity has...of the atmospheric circulation in TC basins to the global warming is more critical than increasing SST to understanding the impacts of global warming...Japan and its adjacent seas is studied with WRF model. The results suggest that the northward moisture transport through the outer cyclonic circulation

A Synoptic View of the Ventilation and Circulation of Antarctic Bottom Water from Chlorofluorocarbons and Natural Tracers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purkey, Sarah G.; Smethie, William M.; Gebbie, Geoffrey; Gordon, Arnold L.; Sonnerup, Rolf E.; Warner, Mark J.; Bullister, John L.

2018-01-01

Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) is the coldest, densest, most prolific water mass in the global ocean. AABW forms at several distinct regions along the Antarctic coast and feeds into the bottom limb of the meridional overturning circulation, filling most of the global deep ocean. AABW has warmed, freshened, and declined in volume around the globe in recent decades, which has implications for the global heat and sea level rise budgets. Over the past three decades, the use of tracers, especially time-varying tracers such as chlorofluorocarbons, has been essential to our understanding of the formation, circulation, and variability of AABW. Here, we review three decades of temperature, salinity, and tracer data and analysis that have led to our current knowledge of AABW and how the southern component of deep-ocean ventilation is changing with time.

A Synoptic View of the Ventilation and Circulation of Antarctic Bottom Water from Chlorofluorocarbons and Natural Tracers.

PubMed

Purkey, Sarah G; Smethie, William M; Gebbie, Geoffrey; Gordon, Arnold L; Sonnerup, Rolf E; Warner, Mark J; Bullister, John L

2018-01-03

Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) is the coldest, densest, most prolific water mass in the global ocean. AABW forms at several distinct regions along the Antarctic coast and feeds into the bottom limb of the meridional overturning circulation, filling most of the global deep ocean. AABW has warmed, freshened, and declined in volume around the globe in recent decades, which has implications for the global heat and sea level rise budgets. Over the past three decades, the use of tracers, especially time-varying tracers such as chlorofluorocarbons, has been essential to our understanding of the formation, circulation, and variability of AABW. Here, we review three decades of temperature, salinity, and tracer data and analysis that have led to our current knowledge of AABW and how the southern component of deep-ocean ventilation is changing with time.

Global variations of zonal mean ozone during stratospheric warming events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Randel, William J.

1993-01-01

Eight years of Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) ozone data are examined to study zonal mean variations associated with stratospheric planetary wave (warming) events. These fluctuations are found to be nearly global in extent, with relatively large variations in the tropics, and coherent signatures reaching up to 50 deg in the opposite (summer) hemisphere. These ozone variations are a manifestation of the global circulation cells associated with stratospheric warming events; the ozone responds dynamically in the lower stratosphere to transport, and photochemically in the upper stratosphere to the circulation-induced temperature changes. The observed ozone variations in the tropics are of particular interest because transport is dominated by zonal-mean vertical motions (eddy flux divergences and mean meridional transports are negligible), and hence, substantial simplifications to the governing equations occur. The response of the atmosphere to these impulsive circulation changes provides a situation for robust estimates of the ozone-temperature sensitivity in the upper stratosphere.

Some remarks on using circulation classifications to evaluate circulation model and atmospheric reanalysis data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stryhal, Jan; Huth, Radan

2017-04-01

Automated classifications of atmospheric circulation patterns represent a tool widely used for studying the circulation in both the real atmosphere, represented by atmospheric reanalyses, and in circulation model outputs. It is well known that the results of studies utilizing one of these methods are influenced by several subjective choices, of which one of the most crucial is the selection of the method itself. Authors of the present study used eight methods from the COST733 classification software (Grosswettertypes, two variants of Jenkinson-Collison, Lund, T-mode PCA with oblique rotation of principal components, k-medoids, k-means with differing starting partitions, and SANDRA) to assess the winter 1961-2000 daily sea level pressure patterns in five reanalysis datasets (ERA-40, NCEP-1, JRA-55, 20CRv2, and ERA-20C), as well as in the historical runs and 21st century projections of an ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs. The classification methods were quite consistent in displaying the strongest biases in GCM simulations. However, the results also showed that multiple classifications are required to quantify the biases in certain types of circulation (e.g., zonal circulation or blocking-like patterns). There was no sign that any method should have a tendency to over- or underestimate the biases in circulation type frequency. The bias found by a particular method for a particular domain clearly reflects the ability of the algorithm to detect groups of similar patterns within the data space, and whether these groups do or do not differ one dataset to another is to a large extend coincidental. There were, nevertheless, systematic differences between groups of methods that use some form of correlation to classify the patterns to circulation types (CTs) and those which use the Euclidean distance. The comparison of reanalyses, which was conducted over eight European domains, showed that there is even a weak negative correlation between the average differences of CT frequency found by cluster analysis methods on one hand, and the remaining methods on the other. This suggests that groups of different methods capture different kinds of errors and that averaging the results obtained by an ensemble of methods very likely leads to an underestimation of the errors actually present in the data.

Study of Circulation in the Tillamook Bay and the Surrounding Wetland Applying Triple-Nested Models Downscaling from Global Ocean to Estuary

EPA Science Inventory

To study the circulation and water quality in the Tillamook Bay, Oregon, a high-resolution estuarine model that covers the shallow bay and the surrounding wetland has been developed. The estuarine circulation at Tillamook Bay is mainly driven by the tides and the river flows and ...

An open-access CMIP5 pattern library for temperature and precipitation: Description and methodology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lynch, Cary D.; Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

Pattern scaling is used to efficiently emulate general circulation models and explore uncertainty in climate projections under multiple forcing scenarios. Pattern scaling methods assume that local climate changes scale with a global mean temperature increase, allowing for spatial patterns to be generated for multiple models for any future emission scenario. For uncertainty quantification and probabilistic statistical analysis, a library of patterns with descriptive statistics for each file would be beneficial, but such a library does not presently exist. Of the possible techniques used to generate patterns, the two most prominent are the delta and least squared regression methods. We exploremore » the differences and statistical significance between patterns generated by each method and assess performance of the generated patterns across methods and scenarios. Differences in patterns across seasons between methods and epochs were largest in high latitudes (60-90°N/S). Bias and mean errors between modeled and pattern predicted output from the linear regression method were smaller than patterns generated by the delta method. Across scenarios, differences in the linear regression method patterns were more statistically significant, especially at high latitudes. We found that pattern generation methodologies were able to approximate the forced signal of change to within ≤ 0.5°C, but choice of pattern generation methodology for pattern scaling purposes should be informed by user goals and criteria. As a result, this paper describes our library of least squared regression patterns from all CMIP5 models for temperature and precipitation on an annual and sub-annual basis, along with the code used to generate these patterns.« less

An open-access CMIP5 pattern library for temperature and precipitation: Description and methodology

DOE PAGES

Lynch, Cary D.; Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; ...

2017-05-15

Pattern scaling is used to efficiently emulate general circulation models and explore uncertainty in climate projections under multiple forcing scenarios. Pattern scaling methods assume that local climate changes scale with a global mean temperature increase, allowing for spatial patterns to be generated for multiple models for any future emission scenario. For uncertainty quantification and probabilistic statistical analysis, a library of patterns with descriptive statistics for each file would be beneficial, but such a library does not presently exist. Of the possible techniques used to generate patterns, the two most prominent are the delta and least squared regression methods. We exploremore » the differences and statistical significance between patterns generated by each method and assess performance of the generated patterns across methods and scenarios. Differences in patterns across seasons between methods and epochs were largest in high latitudes (60-90°N/S). Bias and mean errors between modeled and pattern predicted output from the linear regression method were smaller than patterns generated by the delta method. Across scenarios, differences in the linear regression method patterns were more statistically significant, especially at high latitudes. We found that pattern generation methodologies were able to approximate the forced signal of change to within ≤ 0.5°C, but choice of pattern generation methodology for pattern scaling purposes should be informed by user goals and criteria. As a result, this paper describes our library of least squared regression patterns from all CMIP5 models for temperature and precipitation on an annual and sub-annual basis, along with the code used to generate these patterns.« less

State dependence of climatic instability over the past 720,000 years from Antarctic ice cores and climate modeling.

PubMed

Kawamura, Kenji; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Motoyama, Hideaki; Ageta, Yutaka; Aoki, Shuji; Azuma, Nobuhiko; Fujii, Yoshiyuki; Fujita, Koji; Fujita, Shuji; Fukui, Kotaro; Furukawa, Teruo; Furusaki, Atsushi; Goto-Azuma, Kumiko; Greve, Ralf; Hirabayashi, Motohiro; Hondoh, Takeo; Hori, Akira; Horikawa, Shinichiro; Horiuchi, Kazuho; Igarashi, Makoto; Iizuka, Yoshinori; Kameda, Takao; Kanda, Hiroshi; Kohno, Mika; Kuramoto, Takayuki; Matsushi, Yuki; Miyahara, Morihiro; Miyake, Takayuki; Miyamoto, Atsushi; Nagashima, Yasuo; Nakayama, Yoshiki; Nakazawa, Takakiyo; Nakazawa, Fumio; Nishio, Fumihiko; Obinata, Ichio; Ohgaito, Rumi; Oka, Akira; Okuno, Jun'ichi; Okuyama, Junichi; Oyabu, Ikumi; Parrenin, Frédéric; Pattyn, Frank; Saito, Fuyuki; Saito, Takashi; Saito, Takeshi; Sakurai, Toshimitsu; Sasa, Kimikazu; Seddik, Hakime; Shibata, Yasuyuki; Shinbori, Kunio; Suzuki, Keisuke; Suzuki, Toshitaka; Takahashi, Akiyoshi; Takahashi, Kunio; Takahashi, Shuhei; Takata, Morimasa; Tanaka, Yoichi; Uemura, Ryu; Watanabe, Genta; Watanabe, Okitsugu; Yamasaki, Tetsuhide; Yokoyama, Kotaro; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Yoshimoto, Takayasu

2017-02-01

Climatic variabilities on millennial and longer time scales with a bipolar seesaw pattern have been documented in paleoclimatic records, but their frequencies, relationships with mean climatic state, and mechanisms remain unclear. Understanding the processes and sensitivities that underlie these changes will underpin better understanding of the climate system and projections of its future change. We investigate the long-term characteristics of climatic variability using a new ice-core record from Dome Fuji, East Antarctica, combined with an existing long record from the Dome C ice core. Antarctic warming events over the past 720,000 years are most frequent when the Antarctic temperature is slightly below average on orbital time scales, equivalent to an intermediate climate during glacial periods, whereas interglacial and fully glaciated climates are unfavourable for a millennial-scale bipolar seesaw. Numerical experiments using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with freshwater hosing in the northern North Atlantic showed that climate becomes most unstable in intermediate glacial conditions associated with large changes in sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that the prerequisite for the most frequent climate instability with bipolar seesaw pattern during the late Pleistocene era is associated with reduced atmospheric CO 2 concentration via global cooling and sea ice formation in the North Atlantic, in addition to extended Northern Hemisphere ice sheets.

Localised hydrodynamics influence vulnerability of coral communities to environmental disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shedrawi, George; Falter, James L.; Friedman, Kim J.; Lowe, Ryan J.; Pratchett, Morgan S.; Simpson, Christopher J.; Speed, Conrad W.; Wilson, Shaun K.; Zhang, Zhenlin

2017-09-01

The movement of water can have a significant influence on the vulnerability of hermatypic corals to environmental disturbances such as cyclone damage, heat stress and anoxia. Here, we explore the relationship between small reef-scale water circulation patterns and measured differences in the abundance, composition and vulnerability of coral assemblages over decades. Changes in coral cover and community structure within Bill's Bay (Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia) over a 22-yr period, during which multiple disturbance events (including mass bleaching, anoxia, and tropical cyclones) have impacted the area, were compared with spatial variation in water residence times (WRT). We found that reef sites associated with longer water residence times (WRT >15 h) experienced higher rates of coral mortality during acute environmental disturbances compared to reef sites with shorter WRT. Shifts in coral community composition from acroporid to faviid-dominated assemblages were also more prominent at sites with long WRT compared to reef sites with shorter WRT, although shifts in community composition were also observed at sites close to shore. Interestingly, these same long-WRT sites also tended to have the fastest recovery rates so that coral cover was returned to original levels of approximately 20% over two decades. This study provides empirical evidence that spatial patterns in water circulation and flushing can influence the resilience of coral communities, thus identifying areas sensitive to emerging threats associated with global climate change.

State dependence of climatic instability over the past 720,000 years from Antarctic ice cores and climate modeling

PubMed Central

Kawamura, Kenji; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Motoyama, Hideaki; Ageta, Yutaka; Aoki, Shuji; Azuma, Nobuhiko; Fujii, Yoshiyuki; Fujita, Koji; Fujita, Shuji; Fukui, Kotaro; Furukawa, Teruo; Furusaki, Atsushi; Goto-Azuma, Kumiko; Greve, Ralf; Hirabayashi, Motohiro; Hondoh, Takeo; Hori, Akira; Horikawa, Shinichiro; Horiuchi, Kazuho; Igarashi, Makoto; Iizuka, Yoshinori; Kameda, Takao; Kanda, Hiroshi; Kohno, Mika; Kuramoto, Takayuki; Matsushi, Yuki; Miyahara, Morihiro; Miyake, Takayuki; Miyamoto, Atsushi; Nagashima, Yasuo; Nakayama, Yoshiki; Nakazawa, Takakiyo; Nakazawa, Fumio; Nishio, Fumihiko; Obinata, Ichio; Ohgaito, Rumi; Oka, Akira; Okuno, Jun’ichi; Okuyama, Junichi; Oyabu, Ikumi; Parrenin, Frédéric; Pattyn, Frank; Saito, Fuyuki; Saito, Takashi; Saito, Takeshi; Sakurai, Toshimitsu; Sasa, Kimikazu; Seddik, Hakime; Shibata, Yasuyuki; Shinbori, Kunio; Suzuki, Keisuke; Suzuki, Toshitaka; Takahashi, Akiyoshi; Takahashi, Kunio; Takahashi, Shuhei; Takata, Morimasa; Tanaka, Yoichi; Uemura, Ryu; Watanabe, Genta; Watanabe, Okitsugu; Yamasaki, Tetsuhide; Yokoyama, Kotaro; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Yoshimoto, Takayasu

2017-01-01

Climatic variabilities on millennial and longer time scales with a bipolar seesaw pattern have been documented in paleoclimatic records, but their frequencies, relationships with mean climatic state, and mechanisms remain unclear. Understanding the processes and sensitivities that underlie these changes will underpin better understanding of the climate system and projections of its future change. We investigate the long-term characteristics of climatic variability using a new ice-core record from Dome Fuji, East Antarctica, combined with an existing long record from the Dome C ice core. Antarctic warming events over the past 720,000 years are most frequent when the Antarctic temperature is slightly below average on orbital time scales, equivalent to an intermediate climate during glacial periods, whereas interglacial and fully glaciated climates are unfavourable for a millennial-scale bipolar seesaw. Numerical experiments using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with freshwater hosing in the northern North Atlantic showed that climate becomes most unstable in intermediate glacial conditions associated with large changes in sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that the prerequisite for the most frequent climate instability with bipolar seesaw pattern during the late Pleistocene era is associated with reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration via global cooling and sea ice formation in the North Atlantic, in addition to extended Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. PMID:28246631

Using a global ocean circulation model to conduct a preliminary risk assessment of oil spills in the Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, Zoe; Popova, Katya; Hirschi, Joel; Coward, Andrew; Yool, Andrew; van Gennip, Simon; Anifowose, Babtunde; Harrington-Missin, Liam

2017-04-01

Although oil blowouts from deep-water drilling happen very rarely, they can cause catastrophic damage to the environment. Despite such potentially high impacts, relatively little research effort has gone into understanding subsurface oil plumes in the deep ocean. In this study, we demonstrate the significance of this problem and offer potential solutions using a novel approach based on a leading-edge, high-resolution global ocean circulation model. We present examples demonstrating: (a) the importance of ocean circulation in the propagation of oil spills; and (b) likely circulation footprints for oil spills at four key locations in the Atlantic Ocean that exist in different circulation regimes - the shelves of Brazil, the Gulf of Guinea, the Gulf of Mexico and the Faroe-Shetland Channel. In order to quantify the variability at each site on seasonal timescales, interannual timescales and at different depths, we utilize the Modified Hausdorff Distance (MHD), which is a shape-distance metric that measures the similarity between two shapes. The scale of the footprints across the four focus locations varies considerably and is determined by the main circulation features in their vicinity. For example, the hypothetical oil plume can be affected by variations in the speed and location of a particular current (e.g. Brazil Current at the Brazilian shelf site) or be influenced by different currents entirely depending on the release depth, month and year (e.g. Angola Current or Southern Equatorial Current at the Gulf of Guinea site). Overall, our results demonstrate the need to use state of the art global, or basin-scale, ocean circulation models when assessing the environmental impacts of proposed oil drilling activities.

Meridional overturning and large-scale circulation of the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganachaud, Alexandre; Wunsch, Carl; Marotzke, Jochem; Toole, John

2000-11-01

The large scale Indian Ocean circulation is estimated from a global hydrographic inverse geostrophic box model with a focus on the meridional overturning circulation (MOC). The global model is based on selected recent World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) sections which in the Indian Basin consist of zonal sections at 32°S, 20°S and 8°S, and a section between Bali and Australia from the Java-Australia Dynamic Experiment (JADE). The circulation is required to conserve mass, salinity, heat, silica and "PO" (170PO4+O2). Near-conservation is imposed within layers bounded by neutral surfaces, while permitting advective and diffusive exchanges between the layers. Conceptually, the derived circulation is an estimate of the average circulation for the period 1987-1995. A deep inflow into the Indian Basin of 11±4 Sv is found, which is in the lower range of previous estimates, but consistent with conservation requirements and the global data set. The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) is estimated at 15±5 Sv. The flow in the Mozambique Channel is of the same magnitude, implying a weak net flow between Madagascar and Australia. A net evaporation of -0.6±0.4 Sv is found between 32°S and 8°S, consistent with independent estimates. No net heat gain is found over the Indian Basin (0.1 ± 0.2PW north of 32°S) as a consequence of the large warm water influx from the ITF. Through the use of anomaly equations, the average dianeutral upwelling and diffusion between the sections are required and resolved, with values in the range 1-3×10-5 cm s-1 for the upwelling and 2-10 cm2 s-1 for the diffusivity.

Global Response to Local Ionospheric Mass Ejection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, T. E.; Fok, M.-C.; Delcourt, D. C.; Slinker, S. P.; Fedder, J. A.

2010-01-01

We revisit a reported "Ionospheric Mass Ejection" using prior event observations to guide a global simulation of local ionospheric outflows, global magnetospheric circulation, and plasma sheet pressurization, and comparing our results with the observed global response. Our simulation framework is based on test particle motions in the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) global circulation model electromagnetic fields. The inner magnetosphere is simulated with the Comprehensive Ring Current Model (CRCM) of Fok and Wolf, driven by the transpolar potential developed by the LFM magnetosphere, and includes an embedded plasmaspheric simulation. Global circulation is stimulated using the observed solar wind conditions for the period 24-25 Sept 1998. This period begins with the arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection, initially with northward, but later with southward interplanetary magnetic field. Test particles are launched from the ionosphere with fluxes specified by local empirical relationships of outflow to electrodynamic and particle precipitation imposed by the MIlD simulation. Particles are tracked until they are lost from the system downstream or into the atmosphere, using the full equations of motion. Results are compared with the observed ring current and a simulation of polar and auroral wind outflows driven globally by solar wind dynamic pressure. We find good quantitative agreement with the observed ring current, and reasonable qualitative agreement with earlier simulation results, suggesting that the solar wind driven global simulation generates realistic energy dissipation in the ionosphere and that the Strangeway relations provide a realistic local outflow description.

Climate Response of Direct Radiative Forcing of Anthropogenic Black Carbon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chung, Serena H.; Seinfeld,John H.

2008-01-01

The equilibrium climate effect of direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic black carbon (BC) is examined by 100-year simulations in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model II-prime coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model. Anthropogenic BC is predicted to raise globally and annually averaged equilibrium surface air temperature by 0.20 K if BC is assumed to be externally mixed. The predicted increase is significantly greater in the Northern Hemisphere (0.29 K) than in the Southern Hemisphere (0.11 K). If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with the present day level of sulfate aerosol, the predicted annual mean surface temperature increase rises to 0.37 K globally, 0.54 K for the Northern Hemisphere, and 0.20 K for the Southern Hemisphere. The climate sensitivity of BC direct radiative forcing is calculated to be 0.6 K W (sup -1) square meters, which is about 70% of that of CO2, independent of the assumption of BC mixing state. The largest surface temperature response occurs over the northern high latitudes during winter and early spring. In the tropics and midlatitudes, the largest temperature increase is predicted to occur in the upper troposphere. Direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic BC is also predicted to lead to a change of precipitation patterns in the tropics; precipitation is predicted to increase between 0 and 20 N and decrease between 0 and 20 S, shifting the intertropical convergence zone northward. If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with sulfate instead of externally mixed, the change in precipitation pattern is enhanced. The change in precipitation pattern is not predicted to alter the global burden of BC significantly because the change occurs predominantly in regions removed from BC sources.

Climatic Change and Dynamics of Northern Hemisphere Storm-tracks: Changes in Transient Eddies Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martynova, Yuliya; Krupchatnikov, Vladimir

2013-04-01

An evidence of our understanding of the general circulation is whether we can predict changes in the general circulation that might be associated with past or future climate changes. Changes in the location, intensity or seasonality of major climatological features of the general circulation could be more important than average temperature changes, particularly where these changes could affect local hydrology, energy balances, etc. Under these major climatological features we assume the poleward expansion of the tropical circulation (Hadley circulation), static stability (changes in the vertical temperature structure of the atmosphere), role of SST forcing, sea ice extension, extratropical eddies behavior. We have a question: would the climate change significantly affect the location and intensity of midlatitude storm-tracks and associated jets? Mean-flow interaction in midlatitudes produces low-frequency variations in the latitude of the jets. It is reasonable to think that a modest climate change might significantly affects the jets location and their associated storm tracks. The storm-tracks are defined as the region of strong baroclinicity (maximum meridional temperature gradient), which are determined on the basis of eddy statistics like eddy fluxes of angular momentum, energy, and water (with the use of high-bandpass filter). In the Northern Hemisphere, there are two major storms: in the region of Atlantic and Pacific. The storm-tracks play important role in the dynamics of weather and climate. They affect the global energy cycle and the hydrological cycle, and as a result they bring heavy rains and other hazardous weather phenomena in the middle latitudes. The recent increase in global tropopause heights is closely associated with systematic temperature changes below and above the tropopause. Temperature increases in the troposphere and decreases in the stratosphere. The pattern of warming and cooling also affects the zonal wind structure in the region of the subtropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). Extratropical tropospheric eddies play a central role in this mechanism. The eddies tend to move eastward with the zonal flow and equatorward toward the subtropics until they reach their critical latitudes, where their phase speed equals the speed of the background zonal flow. This work is partially supported by the Ministry of education and science of the Russian Federation (con-tract #8345), SB RAS project VIII.80.2.1, RFBR grant #11-05-01190a, and integrated project SB RAS #131.

Magnetic Flux Circulation During Dawn-Dusk Oriented Interplanetary Magnetic Field

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitchell, E. J.; Lopez, R. E.; Fok, M.-C.; Deng, Y.; Wiltberger, M.; Lyon, J.

2010-01-01

Magnetic flux circulation is a primary mode of energy transfer from the solar wind into the ionosphere and inner magnetosphere. For southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), magnetic flux circulation is described by the Dungey cycle (dayside merging, night side reconnection, and magnetospheric convection), and both the ionosphere and inner magnetosphere receive energy. For dawn-dusk oriented IMF, magnetic flux circulation is not well understood, and the inner magnetosphere does not receive energy. Several models have been suggested for possible reconnection patterns; the general pattern is: dayside merging; reconnection on the dayside or along the dawn/dusk regions; and, return flow on dayside only. These models are consistent with the lack of energy in the inner magnetosphere. We will present evidence that the Dungey cycle does not explain the energy transfer during dawn-dusk oriented IMF. We will also present evidence of how magnetic flux does circulate during dawn-dusk oriented IMF, specifically how the magnetic flux reconnects and circulates back.

A Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo model with multi-cellular meridional circulation in advection- and diffusion-dominated regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belucz, B.; Dikpati, M.; Forgacs-Dajka, E.

2014-12-01

Babcock-Leighton type solar dynamo models with single cell meridional circulation are successful in reproducing many solarcycle features, and recently such a model was applied for solarcycle 24 amplitude prediction. It seems that cycle 24 amplitudeforecast may not be validated. One of the reasons is the assumption of a single cell meridional circulation. Recent observations andtheoretical models of meridional circulation do not indicate a single-celledflow pattern. So it is nessecary to examine the role of complexmulti-cellular circulation patterns in a Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo model in the advection and diffusion dominated regimes.By simulating a Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo model with multi-cellularflow, we show that the presence of a weak, second, high-latitudereverse cell speeds up the cycle and slighty enhances the poleward branch in the butterfly diagram, whereas the presence of a second cellin depth reverses the tilt of the butterfly wing and leads to ananti-solar type feature. If, instead, the butterfly diagram isconstructed from the middle of the convection zone in that case, a solar-like pattern can be retrieved. All the above cases behavequalitatively similar in advection and diffusion-dominated regimes.However, our dynamo with a meridional circulation containing fourcells in latitude behaves distinctly different in the two regimes, producing a solar-like butterfly diagram with fast cycles indiffusion-dominated regime, and a complex branches in the butterflydiagram in the advection-dominated regime. Another interestingfinding from our studies is that a four-celled flow pattern containing two in radius and two in latitude always producesquadrupolar parity as the relaxed solution.

Adjustments of a global Finite-Element Sea Ice Ocean Model configuration to improve the general ocean circulation in the North Pacific and its marginal seas.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scholz, Patrick; Lohmann, Gerrit

2017-04-01

The sub-Arctic oceans like the Sea of Okhotsk, the Bering Sea, the Labrador Sea or the Greenland- Irminger-Norwegian (GIN) Sea react particularly sensitive to global climate changes and have the potential to reversely regulate climate change by CO2 uptake in the other areas of the world. So far, the natural processes in the Arctic and Subarctic system, especially over the Pacific realm, remain poorly understood in terms of numerical modeling. As such, in this study we focus on the North Pacific and its adjacent marginal seas (e.g. the Sea of Okhotsk, the Bering Sea and the Sea of Japan), which have nowadays a significant role in the climate system of the Northwest Pacific by influencing the atmospheric and oceanic circulation as well as the hydrology of the Pacific water masses. The Sea of Okhotsk, in particular, is characterized by a highly dynamical sea-ice coverage, where, in autumn and winter, due to massive sea ice formation and brine rejection, the Sea of Okhotsk Intermediate Water (SOIW) is formed which contributes to the mid-depth (500-1000m) water layer of the North Pacific known as newly formed North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW). By employing a Finite-Element Sea-Ice Ocean Model (FESOM), in a global configuration, but with high resolution over the marginal seas of the Northwest Pacific Ocean ( 7 km), we tested different meshes and forcing improvements to correct the general ocean circulation in the North Pacific realm towards a more realistic pattern. By using different forcing data (e.g. CORE2, ERA-40/interim, CCMP-correction), adapting the mesh resolutions in the tropical and subtropical North Pacific and changing the bathymetry over important inflow straits (e.g. Amukta Passage, Kruzenstern Strait), we show that the better results are obtained (when compared with observational data) via a combination of CCMP corrected COREv2 forcing with increased resolution in the pathway of the Kuroshio Extension Current and Northern Equatorial Current.

Geophysical excitation of LOD/UT1 estimated from the output of the global circulation models of the atmosphere - ERA-40 reanalysis and of the ocean - OMCT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korbacz, A.; Brzeziński, A.; Thomas, M.

2008-04-01

We use new estimates of the global atmospheric and oceanic angular momenta (AAM, OAM) to study the influence on LOD/UT1. The AAM series was calculated from the output fields of the atmospheric general circulation model ERA-40 reanalysis. The OAM series is an outcome of global ocean model OMCT simulation driven by global fields of the atmospheric parameters from the ERA- 40 reanalysis. The excitation data cover the period between 1963 and 2001. Our calculations concern atmospheric and oceanic effects in LOD/UT1 over the periods between 20 days and decades. Results are compared to those derived from the alternative AAM/OAM data sets.

A review of circulation and mixing studies of San Francisco Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Lawrence H.

1987-01-01

A description of the major characteristics and remaining unknowns of circulation and mixing in San Francisco Bay has been constructed from a review of published studies. From a broad perspective San Francisco Bay is an ocean-river mixing zone with a seaward flow equal to the sum of the river inflows less evaporation. Understanding of circulation and mixing within the bay requires quantification of freshwater inflows and ocean-bay exchanges, characterization of source-water variations, and separation of the within-bay components of circulation and mixing processes. Description of net circulation and mixing over a few days to a few months illustrates best the interactions of major components. Quantification of tidal circulation and mixing is also necessary because net circulation and mixing contain a large tide-induced component, and because tidal variations are dominant in measurements of stage, currents, and salinity. The discharge of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta into Suisun Bay is approximately 90 percent of the freshwater inflow to San Francisco Bay. Annual delta discharge is characterized by a winter season of high runoff and a summer season of low runoff. For the period 1956 to 1985 the mean of monthly discharges exceeded 1,000 cubic meters per second (35,000 cubic feet per second) for the months of December through April, whereas for July through October, it was less than 400 cubic meters per second (14,000 cubic feet per second). The months of November, May, and June commonly were transition months between these seasons. Large year-to-year deviations from this annual pattern have occurred frequently. Much less is known about the ocean-bay exchange process. Net exchanges depend on net seaward flow in the bay, tidal amplitude, and longshore coastal currents, but exchanges have not yet been measured successfully. Source-water variations are ignored by limiting discussion of mixing to salinity. The bay is composed of a northern reach, which is strongly influenced by delta discharge, and South Bay, a tributary estuary which responds to conditions in Central Bay. In the northern reach net circulation is characterized by the river-induced seaward, flow and a resulting gravitational circulation in the channels, and by a tide- and wind-induced net horizontal circulation. A surface layer of relatively fresh water in Central Bay generated by high delta discharges can induce gravitational circulation in South Bay. During low delta discharges South Bay has nearly the same salinity as Central Bay and is characterized by tide- and wind-induced net horizontal circulation. Several factors control the patterns of circulation and mixing in San Francisco Bay. Viewing circulation and mixing over different time-periods and at different geographic scales causes the influences of different factors to be emphasized. The exchange between the bay and coastal ocean and freshwater inflows determine the year-to-year behavior of San Francisco Bay as a freshwater-saltwater mixing zone. Within the bay, exchanges between the embayments control variations over a season. Circulation and mixing patterns within the embayments and the magnitude of river-induced seaward flow influence the between-bay exchanges. The within-bay patterns are in turn determined by tides, winds, and freshwater inflows. Because freshwater inflow is the only factor that can be managed, a major study focus is estimation of inflow-related effects. Most questions relate to the patterns of freshwater inflow necessary to protect valuable resources whose welfare is dependent on conditions in the bay. Among the important questions being addressed are: --What quantity of freshwater inflow is necessary to prevent salt intrusion into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, and what salinity distributions in the bay would result from various inflow patterns? --What quantity of freshwater inflow is sufficient to flush pollutants through the bay? Knowledge of circul

Stable isotope records of convection variability in the West Pacific Warm Pool from fast-growing stalagmites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maupin, C. R.; Partin, J. W.; Quinn, T. M.; Shen, C.; Lin, K.; Taylor, F. W.; Sinclair, D. J.; Banner, J. L.

2010-12-01

The potential response of the tropical Pacific to ongoing anthropogenic global warming conditions is informed by instrumental data, model predictions and climate proxy evidence. However, these distinct lines of evidence lead to opposing predictions in terms of the nature of interannual (ENSO) variability in a warming world. Interpreted in an ENSO framework, warming in the tropical Pacific may elicit a zonally asymmetrical response and lead to an intensified Walker Circulation (more ‘La Niña - like’). Alternatively, discrepancies in the increasing rates of latent heat flux and rainfall due to warming conditions may in fact reduce Walker Circulation (more ‘El Niño - like’). However, in order for such a framework to be useful in the context of future climate change, some knowledge of the natural variability in the strength of Walker Circulation components is required. The extant instrumental data are not of sufficient temporal length to fully assess the spectrum of natural variability in such climate components. Oxygen isotope records from tropical speleothems have been successfully used to document the nature of precessional forcing on precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns throughout the tropics. Typical stalagmite growth rates of 10-100 μm yr-1 allow decadally resolved records of δ18O variability on time scales of centuries to millennia and beyond. Here we present the initial results from calcite stalagmites of heretofore unprecedented growth rates (~1-4 mm yr-1) in a cave in northwest Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands (~9°S, 160°E). These stalagmites have been absolutely dated by U-Th techniques and indicate stalagmite growth spanning ~1650 to 2010 CE. The δ18O records from stalagmites provide evidence for changes in convection in the equatorial WPWP region of the SPCZ: the rising limb of the Pacific Walker Circulation, and therefore provide critical insight into changes in zonal atmospheric circulation across the Pacific.

Interannual variability of the global net radiation balance and its consequence on global energy transport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.; Sohn, B. J.

1990-01-01

Global cloudiness and radiation budget data from Nimbus 6 and 7 are used to investigate the role of cloud and surface radiative forcing and elements of the earth's general circulation. Although globally integrated cloud forcing is nearly zero, there are large regional imbalances and well regulated processes in the shortwave and longwave spectrum that control the meridional gradient structure of the net radiation balance and the factors modulating the east-west oriented North Africa-western Pacific energy transport dipole. The analysis demonstrates that clouds play a dual role in both the shortwave and longwave spectra in terms of tropical and midlatitude east-west gradients. The key result is that cloud forcing, although not always the principle regulator of interannual variability of the global climate, serves to reinforce the basic three-cell meridional circulation.

Diversity in the representation of large-scale circulation associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon teleconnections in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramu, Dandi A.; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Kumar, O. S. R. U. B.

2018-04-01

Realistic simulation of large-scale circulation patterns associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is vital in coupled models in order to represent teleconnections to different regions of globe. The diversity in representing large-scale circulation patterns associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon (ISM) teleconnections in 23 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models is examined. CMIP5 models have been classified into three groups based on the correlation between Niño3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) index and ISM rainfall anomalies, models in group 1 (G1) overestimated El Niño-ISM teleconections and group 3 (G3) models underestimated it, whereas these teleconnections are better represented in group 2 (G2) models. Results show that in G1 models, El Niño-induced Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST anomalies are not well represented. Anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the southeastern TIO and western subtropical northwest Pacific (WSNP) cyclonic circulation are shifted too far west to 60° E and 120° E, respectively. This bias in circulation patterns implies dry wind advection from extratropics/midlatitudes to Indian subcontinent. In addition to this, large-scale upper level convergence together with lower level divergence over ISM region corresponding to El Niño are stronger in G1 models than in observations. Thus, unrealistic shift in low-level circulation centers corroborated by upper level circulation changes are responsible for overestimation of ENSO-ISM teleconnections in G1 models. Warm Pacific SST anomalies associated with El Niño are shifted too far west in many G3 models unlike in the observations. Further large-scale circulation anomalies over the Pacific and ISM region are misrepresented during El Niño years in G3 models. Too strong upper-level convergence away from Indian subcontinent and too weak WSNP cyclonic circulation are prominent in most of G3 models in which ENSO-ISM teleconnections are underestimated. On the other hand, many G2 models are able to represent most of large-scale circulation over Indo-Pacific region associated with El Niño and hence provide more realistic ENSO-ISM teleconnections. Therefore, this study advocates the importance of representation/simulation of large-scale circulation patterns during El Niño years in coupled models in order to capture El Niño-monsoon teleconnections well.

Estimation and Validation of \\delta18O Global Distribution with Rayleigh-type two Dimensional Isotope Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshimura, K.; Oki, T.; Ohte, N.; Kanae, S.; Ichiyanagi, K.

2004-12-01

A simple water isotope circulation model on a global scale that includes a Rayleigh equation and the use of _grealistic_h external meteorological forcings estimates short-term variability of precipitation 18O. The results are validated by Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) monthly observations and by daily observations at three sites in Thailand. This good agreement highlights the importance of large scale transport and mixing of vapor masses as a control factor for spatial and temporal variability of precipitation isotopes, rather than in-cloud micro processes. It also indicates the usefulness of the model and the isotopes observation databases for evaluation of two-dimensional atmospheric water circulation fields in forcing datasets. In this regard, two offline simulations for 1978-1993 with major reanalyses, i.e. NCEP and ERA15, were implemented, and the results show that, over Europe ERA15 better matched observations at both monthly and interannual time scales, mainly owing to better precipitation fields in ERA15, while in the tropics both produced similarly accurate isotopic fields. The isotope analyses diagnose accuracy of two-dimensional water circulation fields in datasets with a particular focus on precipitation processes.

Three-dimensional turbulence-resolving modeling of the Venusian cloud layer and induced gravity waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lefèvre, Maxence; Spiga, Aymeric; Lebonnois, Sébastien

2017-01-01

The impact of the cloud convective layer of the atmosphere of Venus on the global circulation remains unclear. The recent observations of gravity waves at the top of the cloud by the Venus Express mission provided some answers. These waves are not resolved at the scale of global circulation models (GCM); therefore, we developed an unprecedented 3-D turbulence-resolving large-eddy simulations (LES) Venusian model using the Weather Research and Forecast terrestrial model. The forcing consists of three different heating rates: two radiative ones for solar and infrared and one associated with the adiabatic cooling/warming of the global circulation. The rates are extracted from the Laboratoire de Météorlogie Dynamique Venus GCM using two different cloud models. Thus, we are able to characterize the convection and associated gravity waves in function of latitude and local time. To assess the impact of the global circulation on the convective layer, we used rates from a 1-D radiative-convective model. The resolved layer, taking place between 1.0 × 105 and 3.8 × 104 Pa (48-53 km), is organized as polygonal closed cells of about 10 km wide with vertical wind of several meters per second. The convection emits gravity waves both above and below the convective layer leading to temperature perturbations of several tenths of kelvin with vertical wavelength between 1 and 3 km and horizontal wavelength from 1 to 10 km. The thickness of the convective layer and the amplitudes of waves are consistent with observations, though slightly underestimated. The global dynamics heating greatly modify the convective layer.

Toward the Inference of Deglacial Ocean Dynamics from the Spatial Pattern of LGM-to-Modern d13C and d18O Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebbie, G.; Peterson, C. D.; Lisiecki, L. E.; Spero, H. J.

2014-12-01

Estimates of the whole-ocean d13C change between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the modern-day are converging to values of about 0.4 per mil, and are of great use in partitioning land versus ocean contributions to the deglacial carbon cycle. To determine which specific oceanic processes are at play, however, knowledge of the spatial pattern of LGM-to-modern d13C and d18O change is critical. Spatial maps have mostly focused on Atlantic d13C, with less progress for d18O and the Pacific and Indian sectors, due to the concentration of sediment-core observations in the Atlantic and the difficulty in making meaningful maps from sparse data. Here, we demonstrate that a state estimation (or data assimilation) method based on recently compiled data and a simple kinematic ocean model simultaneously produces reasonable results for: 1) global maps of d13C and d18O, 2) uncertainty in the estimated properties, and 3) oceanic water-mass geometry. The observations include benthic d13C and d18O data from 493 marine sediment cores that were collected from the scientific literature and NOAA, PANGEA, and Delphi databases. The kinematic model permits each data point to have influence both up- and downstream along a water-mass pathway, typically allowing a larger geographical range than a statistical interpolation method. No assumption regarding the state of the circulation is necessary, and the modern-day circulation need not be assumed to be representative of the LGM. With this method, meridional (or other) sections can be compared between ocean basins. Furthermore, the internally-consistent d18O and d13C maps are used to determine the LGM-to-modern spatial changes that are robust given the uncertainty and sparsity of data. Rather than simply focus on property maps, we suggest that the link between observations and circulation changes (as reflected by the paths that water travels), points the way toward dynamical processes that must be explained. A particular application of our result is the geographic constraint of possible unobserved reservoirs of d13C or radiocarbon and calculation of their potential impact on the global chain of events during the deglaciation.

An atmospheric origin of the multi-decadal bipolar seesaw.

PubMed

Wang, Zhaomin; Zhang, Xiangdong; Guan, Zhaoyong; Sun, Bo; Yang, Xin; Liu, Chengyan

2015-03-10

A prominent feature of recent climatic change is the strong Arctic surface warming that is contemporaneous with broad cooling over much of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. Longer global surface temperature observations suggest that this contrasting pole-to-pole change could be a manifestation of a multi-decadal interhemispheric or bipolar seesaw pattern, which is well correlated with the North Atlantic sea surface temperature variability, and thus generally hypothesized to originate from Atlantic meridional overturning circulation oscillations. Here, we show that there is an atmospheric origin for this seesaw pattern. The results indicate that the Southern Ocean surface cooling (warming) associated with the seesaw pattern is attributable to the strengthening (weakening) of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies, which can be traced to Northern Hemisphere and tropical tropospheric warming (cooling). Antarctic ozone depletion has been suggested to be an important driving force behind the recently observed increase in the Southern Hemisphere's summer westerly winds; our results imply that Northern Hemisphere and tropical warming may have played a triggering role at an stage earlier than the first detectable Antarctic ozone depletion, and enhanced Antarctic ozone depletion through decreasing the lower stratospheric temperature.

The genomic and epidemiological dynamics of human influenza A virus.

PubMed

Rambaut, Andrew; Pybus, Oliver G; Nelson, Martha I; Viboud, Cecile; Taubenberger, Jeffery K; Holmes, Edward C

2008-05-29

The evolutionary interaction between influenza A virus and the human immune system, manifest as 'antigenic drift' of the viral haemagglutinin, is one of the best described patterns in molecular evolution. However, little is known about the genome-scale evolutionary dynamics of this pathogen. Similarly, how genomic processes relate to global influenza epidemiology, in which the A/H3N2 and A/H1N1 subtypes co-circulate, is poorly understood. Here through an analysis of 1,302 complete viral genomes sampled from temperate populations in both hemispheres, we show that the genomic evolution of influenza A virus is characterized by a complex interplay between frequent reassortment and periodic selective sweeps. The A/H3N2 and A/H1N1 subtypes exhibit different evolutionary dynamics, with diverse lineages circulating in A/H1N1, indicative of weaker antigenic drift. These results suggest a sink-source model of viral ecology in which new lineages are seeded from a persistent influenza reservoir, which we hypothesize to be located in the tropics, to sink populations in temperate regions.

Investigating Mars South Residual CO2 Cap with a Global Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahre, M. A.; Dequaire, J.; Hollingsworth, J. L.; Haberle, R. M.

2016-01-01

The CO2 cycle is one of the three controlling climate cycles on Mars. One aspect of the CO2 cycle that is not yet fully understood is the existence of a residual CO2 ice cap that is offset from the south pole. Previous investigations suggest that the atmosphere may control the placement of the south residual cap (e.g., Colaprete et al., 2005). These investigations show that topographically forced stationary eddies in the south during southern hemisphere winter produce colder atmospheric temperatures and increased CO2 snowfall over the hemisphere where the residual cap resides. Since precipitated CO2 ice produces higher surface albedos than directly deposited CO2 ice, it is plausible that CO2 snowfall resulting from the zonally asymmetric atmospheric circulation produces surface ice albedos high enough to maintain a residual cap only in one hemisphere. The goal of the current work is to further evaluate Colaprete et al.'s hypothesis by investigating model-predicted seasonally varying snowfall patterns in the southern polar region and the atmospheric circulation components that control them.

Mechanisms of Ocean Heat Uptake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garuba, Oluwayemi

An important parameter for the climate response to increased greenhouse gases or other radiative forcing is the speed at which heat anomalies propagate downward in the ocean. Ocean heat uptake occurs through passive advection/diffusion of surface heat anomalies and through the redistribution of existing temperature gradients due to circulation changes. Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) weakens in a warming climate and this should slow the downward heat advection (compared to a case in which the circulation is unchanged). However, weakening AMOC also causes a deep warming through the redistributive effect, thus increasing the downward rate of heat propagation compared to unchanging circulation. Total heat uptake depends on the combined effect of these two mechanisms. Passive tracers in a perturbed CO2 quadrupling experiments are used to investigate the effect of passive advection and redistribution of temperature anomalies. A new passive tracer formulation is used to separate ocean heat uptake into contributions due to redistribution and passive advection-diffusion of surface heating during an ocean model experiment with abrupt increase in surface temperature. The spatial pattern and mechanisms of each component are examined. With further experiments, the effects of surface wind, salinity and temperature changes in changing circulation and the resulting effect on redistribution in the individual basins are isolated. Analysis of the passive advection and propagation path of the tracer show that the Southern ocean dominates heat uptake, largely through vertical and horizontal diffusion. Vertical diffusion transports the tracer across isopycnals down to about 1000m in 100 years in the Southern ocean. Advection is more important in the subtropical cells and in the Atlantic high latitudes, both with a short time scale of about 20 years. The shallow subtropical cells transport the tracer down to about 500m along isopycnal surfaces, below this vertical diffusion takes over transport in the tropics; in the Atlantic, the MOC transports heat as deep 2000m in about 30 years. Redistributive surface heat uptake alters the total amount surface heat uptake among the basins. Compared to the passive-only heat uptake, which is about the same among the basins, redistribution nearly doubles the surface heat input into the Atlantic but makes smaller increases in the Indian and Pacific oceans for a net global increase of about 25%, in the perturbation experiment with winds unchanged. The passive and redistributive heat uptake components are further distributed among the basins through the global conveyor belt. The Pacific gains twice the surface heat input into it through lateral transport from the other two basins, as a result, the Atlantic and Pacific gain similar amounts of heat even though surface heat input is in the Atlantic is much bigger. Of this heat transport, most of the passive component comes from the Indian and the redistributive component comes from the Atlantic. Different surface forcing perturbation gives different circulation change pattern and as a result yield different redistributive uptake. Ocean heat uptake is more sensitive to wind forcing perturbation than to thermohaline forcing perturbation. About 2% reduction in subtropical cells transport and southern ocean transport, in the wind-change perturbation experiment, resulted in about 10% reduction in the global ocean heat uptake of wind-unchanged experiment. The AMOC weakened by about 35% and resulted in a 25% increase in passive heat uptake in the wind-unchanged experiment. Surface winds weakening reduces heat uptake by warming the reservoir surface temperatures, while MOC weakening increases heat input by a cooling reservoir surface temperatures. Thermohaline forcing perturbation is combination of salinity and temperature perturbations, both weaken the AMOC, however, they have opposite redistributive effects. Ocean surface freshening gives positive redistributive effect, while surface temperature increase gives negative redistributive effect on heat uptake. The salinity effect dominates the redistributive effect for thermohaline perturbation.

Pattern of maternal circulating CRH in laboratory-housed squirrel and owl monkeys

PubMed Central

Power, ML; Williams, LE; Gibson, SV; Schulkin, J; Helfers, J; Zorrilla, EP

2010-01-01

The anthropoid primate placenta appears to be unique in producing corticotropin-releasing hormone (CRH). Placental CRH is involved in an endocrine circuit key to the production of estrogens during pregnancy. CRH induces cortisol production by the maternal and fetal adrenal glands, leading to further placental CRH production. CRH also stimulates the fetal adrenal glands to produce dehydroepiandrostendione sulfate (DHEAS) which the placenta converts into estrogens. There are at least two patterns of maternal circulating CRH across gestation among anthropoids. Monkeys examined to date (Papio and Callithrix) have an early-to-mid gestational peak of circulating CRH, followed by a steady decline to a plateau level, with a possible rise near parturition. In contrast, humans and great apes have an exponential rise in circulating CRH peaking at parturition. To further document and compare patterns of maternal circulating CRH in anthropoid primates, we collected monthly blood samples on 14 squirrel monkeys (Saimiri boliviensis) and 10 owl monkeys (Aotus nancymaae) during pregnancy. CRH immunoreactivity was measured from extracted plasma by solid-phase RIA. Both squirrel and owl monkeys displayed a mid-gestational peak in circulating CRH: days 45–65 of the 152-day gestation for squirrel monkeys (mean±SEM CRH = 2694±276 pg/ml) and days 60–80 of the 133-day gestation for owl monkeys (9871±974 pg/ml). In squirrel monkeys, circulating CRH declined to 36% of mean peak value by two weeks before parturition and then appeared to increase; the best model for circulating CRH over gestation in squirrel monkeys was a cubic function, similar to previous results for baboons and marmosets. In owl monkeys, circulating CRH appeared to plateau with no subsequent significant decline approaching parturition, although a cubic function was the best fit. This study provides additional evidence for a mid-gestational peak of maternal circulating CRH in ancestral anthropoids that has been lost in the hominoid lineage. PMID:20872786

Sensitivity of the Meridional Overturning Circulation to the Pattern of the Surface Density Flux

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-01

Atlantic alone, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) transports over 1015 W of heat (Ganachaud and Wunsch 2000) poleward...Phys. Oceanogr., 17, 970–985. Bryden, H. L., H. Longworth, and S. Cunningham, 2005: Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25...Rahmstorf, 2007: On the driving processes of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation . Rev. Geophys., 45, RG2001, doi:

Ocean Bottom Pressure Seasonal Cycles and Decadal Trends from GRACE Release-05: Ocean Circulation Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, G. C.; Chambers, D. P.

2013-12-01

Ocean mass variations are important for diagnosing sea level budgets, the hydrological cycle and global energy budget, as well as ocean circulation variability. Here seasonal cycles and decadal trends of ocean mass from January 2003 to December 2012, both global and regional, are analyzed using GRACE Release 05 data. The trend of global flux of mass into the ocean approaches 2 cm decade-1 in equivalent sea level rise. Regional trends are of similar magnitude, with the North Pacific, South Atlantic, and South Indian oceans generally gaining mass and other regions losing mass. These trends suggest a spin-down of the North Pacific western boundary current extension and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the South Atlantic and South Indian oceans. The global average seasonal cycle of ocean mass is about 1 cm in amplitude, with a maximum in early October and volume fluxes in and out of the ocean reaching 0.5 Sv (1 Sv = 1 × 106 m3 s-1) when integrated over the area analyzed here. Regional patterns of seasonal ocean mass change have typical amplitudes of 1-4 cm, and include maxima in the subtropics and minima in the subpolar regions in hemispheric winters. The subtropical mass gains and subpolar mass losses in the winter spin up both subtropical and subpolar gyres, hence the western boundary current extensions. Seasonal variations in these currents are order 10 Sv, but since the associated depth-averaged current variations are only order 0.1 cm s-1, they would be difficult to detect using in situ oceanographic instruments. a) Amplitude (colors, in cm) and b) phase (colors, in months of the year) of an annual harmonic fit to monthly GRACE Release 05 CSR 500 km smoothed maps (concurrently with a trend and the semiannual harmonic). The 97.5% confidence interval for difference from zero is also indicated (solid black line). Data within 300 km of coastlines are not considered.

Response of Global Lightning Activity Observed by the TRMM/LIS During Warm and Cold ENSO Phases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chronis, Themis G.; Cecil, Dan; Goodman, Steven J.; Buechler, Dennis

2007-01-01

This paper investigates the response of global lightning activity to the transition from the warm (January February March-JFM 1998) to the cold (JFM 1999) ENSO phase. The nine-year global lightning climatology for these months from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) provides the observational baseline. Flash rate density is computed on a 5.0x5.0 degree lat/lon grid within the LIS coverage area (between approx.37.5 N and S) for each three month period. The flash rate density anomalies from this climatology are examined for these months in 1998 and 1999. The observed lightning anomalies spatially match the documented general circulation features that accompany the warm and cold ENSO events. During the warm ENSO phase the dominant positive lightning anomalies are located mostly over the Western Hemisphere and more specifically over Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and Northern Mid-Atlantic. We further investigate specifically the Northern Mid-Atlantic related anomaly features since these show strong relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Furthermore these observed anomaly patterns show strong spatial agreement with anomalous upper level (200 mb) cold core cyclonic circulations. Positive sea surface temperature anomalies during the warm ENSO phase also affect the lightning activity, but this is mostly observed near coastal environments. Over the open tropical oceans, there is climatologically less lightning and the anomalies are less pronounced. Warm ENSO related anomalies over the Eastern Hemisphere are most prominent over the South China coast. The transition to the cold ENSO phase illustrates the detected lightning anomalies to be more pronounced over East and West Pacific. A comparison of total global lightning between warm and cold ENSO phase reveals no significant difference, although prominent regional anomalies are located over mostly oceanic environments. All three tropical "chimneys" (Maritime Continent, Central Africa, and Amazon Basin) do not show any particular response to this transition.

Indo-Pacific hydroclimate over the past millennium and links with global climate variabilty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffiths, M. L.; Drysdale, R.; Kimbrough, A. K.; Hua, Q.; Johnson, K. R.; Gagan, M. K.; Cole, J. E.; Cook, B. I.; Zhao, J. X.; Hellstrom, J. C.; Hantoro, W. S.

2016-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) are the dominant modes of hydroclimate variability in the tropical Pacific and have far-reaching impacts on Earth's climate. Experiments combining instrumental records with climate-model simulations have highlighted the dominant role of the Pacific Walker circulation in shaping recent trends in global temperatures (Kosaka and Xie, 2013, 2016). However, the paucity of high-resolution terrestrial paleoclimate records of deep atmospheric convection over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) precludes a comprehensive assessment as to role of the tropical Pacific in modulating radiative-forced shifts in global temperature on multidecadal to centennial timescales. Here we present a suite of new high-resolution oxygen-isotope records from Indo-Pacific speleothems, which, based on modern rainfall and cave drip-water monitoring studies, along with trace element (Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca) analyses, are interpreted to reflect changes in Australasian monsoon variability during the Common Era (C.E.). Our results reveal a protracted decline in southern Indonesian monsoon rainfall between 1000-1400 C.E. but stronger between 1500-1900 C.E. These centennial-scale patterns over southern Indonesia are consistent with other proxy records from the region but anti-phased with records from India and China, supporting the paradigm that Northern Hemisphere cooling increased the interhemispheric thermal gradient, displacing the Australasian ITCZ southward. However, our findings are also compatible with a recent synthesis of paleohydrologic records for the Australasian monsoon region, which, collectively, suggest that rather than moving southward during the LIA, the latitudinal range of monsoon-ITCZ migration probably contracted equatorward (Yan et al., 2015). This proposed LIA ITCZ contraction likely occurred in parallel with a strengthening of the Walker circulation (as indicated through comparison with our hydroclimate records from the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and western Indian Ocean, and eastern Australia), and thus, the tropical Pacific may have played a critical role in amplifying the radiative-forced global cooling already underway.

The impact of oceanic heat transport on the atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucarini, Valerio; Lunkeit, Frank

2017-04-01

A general circulation model of intermediate complexity with an idealized Earth-like aquaplanet setup is used to study the impact of changes in the oceanic heat transport on the global atmospheric circulation. Focus is on the atmospheric mean meridional circulation and global thermodynamic properties. The atmosphere counterbalances to a large extent the imposed changes in the oceanic heat transport, but, nonetheless, significant modifications to the atmospheric general circulation are found. Increasing the strength of the oceanic heat transport up to 2.5 PW leads to an increase in the global mean near-surface temperature and to a decrease in its equator-to-pole gradient. For stronger transports, the gradient is reduced further, but the global mean remains approximately constant. This is linked to a cooling and a reversal of the temperature gradient in the tropics. Additionally, a stronger oceanic heat transport leads to a decline in the intensity and a poleward shift of the maxima of both the Hadley and Ferrel cells. Changes in zonal mean diabatic heating and friction impact the properties of the Hadley cell, while the behavior of the Ferrel cell is mostly controlled by friction. The efficiency of the climate machine, the intensity of the Lorenz energy cycle and the material entropy production of the system decline with increased oceanic heat transport. This suggests that the climate system becomes less efficient and turns into a state of reduced entropy production as the enhanced oceanic transport performs a stronger large-scale mixing between geophysical fluids with different temperatures, thus reducing the available energy in the climate system and bringing it closer to a state of thermal equilibrium.

Global assessment of surfing conditions: seasonal, interannual and long-term variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espejo, A.; Losada, I.; Mendez, F.

2012-12-01

International surfing destinations owe a great debt to specific combinations of wind-wave, thermal conditions and local bathymetry. As surf quality depends on a vast number of geophysical variables, a multivariable standardized index on the basis of expert judgment is proposed to analyze surf resource in a worldwide domain. Data needed is obtained by combining several datasets (reanalyses): 60-year satellite-calibrated spectral wave hindcast (GOW, WaveWatchIII), wind fields from NCEP/NCAR, global sea surface temperature from ERSST.v3b, and global tides from TPXO7.1. A summary of the global surf resource is presented, which highlights the high degree of variability in surfable events. According to general atmospheric circulation, results show that west facing low to middle latitude coasts are more suitable for surfing, especially those in Southern Hemisphere. Month to month analysis reveals strong seasonal changes in the occurrence of surfable events, enhancing those in North Atlantic or North Pacific. Interannual variability is investigated by comparing occurrence values with global and regional climate patterns showing a great influence at both, global and regional scales. Analysis of long term trends shows an increase in the probability of surfable events over the west facing coasts on the planet (i.e. + 30 hours/year in California). The resulting maps provide useful information for surfers and surf related stakeholders, coastal planning, education, and basic research.; Figure 1. Global distribution of medium quality (a) and high quality surf conditions probability (b).

ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OF BROWN DWARFS: JETS, VORTICES, AND TIME VARIABILITY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Xi; Showman, Adam P., E-mail: xiz@lpl.arizona.edu

2014-06-10

A variety of observational evidence demonstrates that brown dwarfs exhibit active atmospheric circulations. In this study we use a shallow-water model to investigate the global atmospheric dynamics in the stratified layer overlying the convective zone on these rapidly rotating objects. We show that the existence and properties of the atmospheric circulation crucially depend on key parameters including the energy injection rate and radiative timescale. Under conditions of strong internal heat flux and weak radiative dissipation, a banded flow pattern comprised of east-west jet streams spontaneously emerges from the interaction of atmospheric turbulence with the planetary rotation. In contrast, when themore » internal heat flux is weak and/or radiative dissipation is strong, turbulence injected into the atmosphere damps before it can self-organize into jets, leading to a flow dominated by transient eddies and isotropic turbulence instead. The simulation results are not very sensitive to the form of the forcing. Based on the location of the transition between jet-dominated and eddy-dominated regimes, we suggest that many brown dwarfs may exhibit atmospheric circulations dominated by eddies and turbulence (rather than jets) due to the strong radiative damping on these worlds, but a jet structure is also possible under some realistic conditions. Our simulated light curves capture important features from observed infrared light curves of brown dwarfs, including amplitude variations of a few percent and shapes that fluctuate between single-peak and multi-peak structures. More broadly, our work shows that the shallow-water system provides a useful tool to illuminate fundamental aspects of the dynamics on these worlds.« less

Trends in winter circulation over the British Isles and central Europe in twenty-first century projections by 25 CMIP5 GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stryhal, Jan; Huth, Radan

2018-03-01

Winter midlatitude atmospheric circulation has been extensively studied for its tight link to surface weather, and automated circulation classifications have often been used to this end. Here, eight such classifications are applied to daily sea level pressure patterns simulated by an ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs twenty-first century projections for the British Isles and central Europe in order to robustly estimate future changes in frequency, persistence, and strength of synoptic-scale circulation there. All methods are able to identify present-day biases of models reported before, such as an overestimated occurrence of zonal flow and underestimation of anticyclonic conditions and easterly advection, although the strength of these biases varies among the methods. In future, models show that the zonal flow will become more frequent while the strength of the mean flow is not projected to change. Over the British Isles, the models that better simulate the latitude of zonal flow over the historical period indicate a slight equatorward shift of westerlies in their projections, while the poleward expansion of circulation—expected in future at global scale—is apparent in those models that have large errors. Over central Europe, some classifications indicate an increase in persistence and especially in frequency of anticyclonic types, which is, however, shown to be rather an artifact of some methods than a real feature. On the other hand, the easterly flow is robustly projected to become markedly weaker in central Europe, which we hypothesize might be an important factor contributing to the projected decrease of cold extremes there.

Plausible Effect of Weather on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation with a Coupled General Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zedong; Wan, Xiuquan

2018-04-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a vital component of the global ocean circulation and the heat engine of the climate system. Through the use of a coupled general circulation model, this study examines the role of synoptic systems on the AMOC and presents evidence that internally generated high-frequency, synoptic-scale weather variability in the atmosphere could play a significant role in maintaining the overall strength and variability of the AMOC, thereby affecting climate variability and change. Results of a novel coupling technique show that the strength and variability of the AMOC are greatly reduced once the synoptic weather variability is suppressed in the coupled model. The strength and variability of the AMOC are closely linked to deep convection events at high latitudes, which could be strongly affected by the weather variability. Our results imply that synoptic weather systems are important in driving the AMOC and its variability. Thus, interactions between atmospheric weather variability and AMOC may be an important feedback mechanism of the global climate system and need to be taken into consideration in future climate change studies.

Influence of atmospheric transport patterns on xenon detections at the CTBTO radionuclide network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krysta, Monika; Kusmierczyk-Michulec, Jolanta

2016-04-01

In order to fulfil its task of monitoring for signals emanating from nuclear explosions, Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) operates global International Monitoring System (IMS) comprising seismic, infrasound, hydroacoustic and radionuclide measurement networks. At present, 24 among 80 radionuclide stations foreseen by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) are equipped with certified noble gas measurement systems. Over a past couple of years these systems collected a rich set of measurements of radioactive isotopes of xenon. Atmospheric transport modelling simulations are crucial to an assessment of the origin of xenon detected at the IMS stations. Numerous studies undertaken in the past enabled linking these detections to non Treaty-relevant activities and identifying main contributors. Presence and quantity of xenon isotopes at the stations is hence a result of an interplay of emission patterns and atmospheric circulation. In this presentation we analyse the presence or absence of radioactive xenon at selected stations from an angle of such an interplay. We attempt to classify the stations according to similarity of detection patterns, examine seasonality in those patterns and link them to large scale or local meteorological phenomena. The studies are undertaken using crude hypotheses on emission patterns from known sources and atmospheric transport modelling simulations prepared with the FLEXPART model.

SPECIAL - The Savanna Patterns of Energy and Carbon Integrated Across the Landscape campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beringer, J.; Hacker, J.; Hutley, L. B.; Leuning, R.; Arndt, S. K.; Amiri, R.; Bannehr, L.; Cernusak, L. A.; Grover, S.; Hensley, C.; Hocking, D. J.; Isaac, P. R.; Jamali, H.; Kanniah, K.; Livesley, S.; Neininger, B.; Paw U, K.; Sea, W. B.; Straten, D.; Tapper, N. J.; Weinmann, R. A.; Wood, S.; Zegelin, S. J.

2010-12-01

We undertook a significant field campaign (SPECIAL) to examine spatial patterns and processes of land surface-atmosphere exchanges (radiation, heat, moisture, CO2 and other trace gasses) across scales from leaf to landscape scales within Australian savannas. Such savanna ecosystems occur in over 20 countries and cover approximately 15% of the world’s land surface. They consist of a mix of trees and grasses that coexist, but are spatially highly varied in their physical structure, species composition and physiological function. This spatial variation is driven by climate factors (rainfall gradients and seasonality) and disturbances (fire, grazing, herbivory, cyclones). Variations in savanna structure, composition and function (i.e. leaf area and function, stem density, albedo, roughness) interact with the overlying atmosphere directly through exchanges of heat and moisture, which alter the overlying boundary layer. Variability in ecosystem types across the landscape can alter regional to global circulation patterns. Equally, savannas are an important part of the global carbon cycle and can influence the climate through net uptake or release of CO2. We utilized a combination of multiscale measurements including fixed flux towers, aircraft-based flux and regional budget measurements, and satellite remotely sensed quantities to quantify the spatial variability utilizing a continental scale rainfall gradient that resulted in a variety of savanna types. The ultimate goal of our research is to be able to produce robust estimates of regional carbon and water cycles to inform land management policy about how they may respond to future environmental changes.

Hotspot of accelerated sea-level rise on the Atlantic coast of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sallenger,, Asbury H.; Doran, Kara S.; Howd, Peter A.

2012-01-01

Climate warming does not force sea-level rise (SLR) at the same rate everywhere. Rather, there are spatial variations of SLR superimposed on a global average rise. These variations are forced by dynamic processes, arising from circulation and variations in temperature and/or salinity, and by static equilibrium processes, arising from mass redistributions changing gravity and the Earth's rotation and shape. These sea-level variations form unique spatial patterns, yet there are very few observations verifying predicted patterns or fingerprints. Here, we present evidence of recently accelerated SLR in a unique 1,000-km-long hotspot on the highly populated North American Atlantic coast north of Cape Hatteras and show that it is consistent with a modelled fingerprint of dynamic SLR. Between 1950–1979 and 1980–2009, SLR rate increases in this northeast hotspot were ~ 3–4 times higher than the global average. Modelled dynamic plus steric SLR by 2100 at New York City ranges with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario from 36 to 51 cm (ref. 3); lower emission scenarios project 24–36 cm (ref. 7). Extrapolations from data herein range from 20 to 29 cm. SLR superimposed on storm surge, wave run-up and set-up will increase the vulnerability of coastal cities to flooding, and beaches and wetlands to deterioration.

The Role of Atmospheric Deposition on the Input of Trace Elements to the Surface Ocean: the Bermuda Wet and Dry Record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Church, T. M.; Sedwick, P. N.; Sholkovitz, E. R.

2011-12-01

Global surface temperature variations and changes result from intricate interplay of phenomena varying on scales ranging from fraction of seconds (turbulence) to thousands of years (e.g. glaciations). To complicate these issues further, the contribution of the anthropogenic forcing on the observed changes in surface temperatures varies over time and is spatially non-uniform. While evaluating all individual bands of this broad spectrum is virtually impossible, the availability of global daily datasets in the last few decades from reanalyses and Global Climate Models (GCMs) simulations allows estimating the contribution of phenomena varying on synoptic-to-interannual timescales. Previous studies using GCM simulations for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment (IPCC AR4) have documented a consistent poleward shift in the storm tracks related to changes in baroclinicity resulting from global warming. However, our recent research (Cannon et al. 2013) indicated that the pattern of changes in the storm tracks observed in the last few decades is much more complex in both space and time. Complex terrain and the relative distribution of continents, oceans and icecaps play a significant role for changes in synoptic activity. Coupled modes such as the Northern and Southern annular modes, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and respective teleconnections with changes in baroclinicity have been identified as relevant dynamical forcings for variations of the midlatitude storm tracks, increasing the uncertainties in future projections. Moreover, global warming has modified the amplitude of the annual cycles of temperature, moisture and circulation throughout the planet and there is strong indication that these changes have mostly affected the tropics and Polar Regions. The present study advances these findings by investigating the 'blue-shift' in the underlying dynamics causing surface temperature anomalies and investigates relationships with low and upper level circulation. This research uses two sources of data: global daily Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) (1979- 2010) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global daily simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Two sets of simulations are investigated: the Historic and Pi-control runs. Here the term ';blue-shift' is used to indicate long-term increase in the amplitude of the synoptic scale relatively to the annual cycle amplitude derived from wavelet analysis as an analogy to the definition commonly used in physics (i.e., a shift toward shorter wavelengths of the spectral lines). It is shown that the blue-shift has been observed in midlatitudes of some continental areas of the Northern Hemisphere and North Pacific but in relatively higher latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. Tropical areas and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere have experienced opposite trend (red-shift). Moreover, the pattern of the blue and red-shifts exhibits seasonal changes. References: Cannon, F., L. M. V. Carvalho, C. Jones, B. Bookhagen, 2013: Multi-Annual Variations in Winter Westerly Disturbance Activity Affecting the Himalaya. Submitted to Climate Dynamics

The 'Blue-Shift' in midlatitude dynamics in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvalho, L. V.

2013-12-01

Global surface temperature variations and changes result from intricate interplay of phenomena varying on scales ranging from fraction of seconds (turbulence) to thousands of years (e.g. glaciations). To complicate these issues further, the contribution of the anthropogenic forcing on the observed changes in surface temperatures varies over time and is spatially non-uniform. While evaluating all individual bands of this broad spectrum is virtually impossible, the availability of global daily datasets in the last few decades from reanalyses and Global Climate Models (GCMs) simulations allows estimating the contribution of phenomena varying on synoptic-to-interannual timescales. Previous studies using GCM simulations for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment (IPCC AR4) have documented a consistent poleward shift in the storm tracks related to changes in baroclinicity resulting from global warming. However, our recent research (Cannon et al. 2013) indicated that the pattern of changes in the storm tracks observed in the last few decades is much more complex in both space and time. Complex terrain and the relative distribution of continents, oceans and icecaps play a significant role for changes in synoptic activity. Coupled modes such as the Northern and Southern annular modes, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and respective teleconnections with changes in baroclinicity have been identified as relevant dynamical forcings for variations of the midlatitude storm tracks, increasing the uncertainties in future projections. Moreover, global warming has modified the amplitude of the annual cycles of temperature, moisture and circulation throughout the planet and there is strong indication that these changes have mostly affected the tropics and Polar Regions. The present study advances these findings by investigating the 'blue-shift' in the underlying dynamics causing surface temperature anomalies and investigates relationships with low and upper level circulation. This research uses two sources of data: global daily Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) (1979- 2010) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global daily simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Two sets of simulations are investigated: the Historic and Pi-control runs. Here the term ';blue-shift' is used to indicate long-term increase in the amplitude of the synoptic scale relatively to the annual cycle amplitude derived from wavelet analysis as an analogy to the definition commonly used in physics (i.e., a shift toward shorter wavelengths of the spectral lines). It is shown that the blue-shift has been observed in midlatitudes of some continental areas of the Northern Hemisphere and North Pacific but in relatively higher latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. Tropical areas and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere have experienced opposite trend (red-shift). Moreover, the pattern of the blue and red-shifts exhibits seasonal changes. References: Cannon, F., L. M. V. Carvalho, C. Jones, B. Bookhagen, 2013: Multi-Annual Variations in Winter Westerly Disturbance Activity Affecting the Himalaya. Submitted to Climate Dynamics

Interannual variations in fire weather, fire extent, and synoptic-scale circulation patterns in northern California and Oregon

Treesearch

Valerie Trouet; Alan H. Taylor; Andrew M. Carleton; Carl N. Skinner

2009-01-01

The Mediterranean climate region on the west coast of the United States is characterized by wet winters and dry summers, and by high fire activity. The importance of synoptic-scale circulation patterns (ENSO, PDO, PNA) on fire-climate interactions is evident in contemporary fire data sets and in pre-Euroamerican tree-ring-based fire records. We investigated how...

Stationary waves and slowly moving features in the night upper clouds of Venus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peralta, J.; Hueso, R.; Sánchez-Lavega, A.; Lee, Y. J.; Muñoz, A. García; Kouyama, T.; Sagawa, H.; Sato, T. M.; Piccioni, G.; Tellmann, S.; Imamura, T.; Satoh, T.

2017-08-01

At the cloud top level of Venus (65-70 km altitude) the atmosphere rotates 60 times faster than the underlying surface—a phenomenon known as superrotation1,2. Whereas on Venus's dayside the cloud top motions are well determined3,4,5,6 and Venus general circulation models predict the mean zonal flow at the upper clouds to be similar on both the day and nightside2, the nightside circulation remains poorly studied except for the polar region7,8. Here, we report global measurements of the nightside circulation at the upper cloud level. We tracked individual features in thermal emission images at 3.8 and 5.0 μm obtained between 2006 and 2008 by the Visible and Infrared Thermal Imaging Spectrometer-Mapper onboard Venus Express and in 2015 by ground-based measurements with the Medium-Resolution 0.8-5.5 Micron Spectrograph and Imager at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Infrared Telescope Facility. The zonal motions range from -110 to -60 m s-1, which is consistent with those found for the dayside but with larger dispersion6. Slow motions (-50 to -20 m s-1) were also found and remain unexplained. In addition, abundant stationary wave patterns with zonal speeds from -10 to +10 m s-1 dominate the night upper clouds and concentrate over the regions of higher surface elevation.

Circulating Human Eosinophils Share a Similar Transcriptional Profile in Asthma and Other Hypereosinophilic Disorders.

PubMed

Barnig, Cindy; Alsaleh, Ghada; Jung, Nicolas; Dembélé, Doulaye; Paul, Nicodème; Poirot, Anh; Uring-Lambert, Béatrice; Georgel, Philippe; de Blay, Fréderic; Bahram, Seiamak

2015-01-01

Eosinophils are leukocytes that are released into the peripheral blood in a phenotypically mature state and are capable of being recruited into tissues in response to appropriate stimuli. Eosinophils, traditionally considered cytotoxic effector cells, are leukocytes recruited into the airways of asthma patients where they are believed to contribute to the development of many features of the disease. This perception, however, has been challenged by recent findings suggesting that eosinophils have also immunomodulatory functions and may be involved in tissue homeostasis and wound healing. Here we describe a transcriptome-based approach-in a limited number of patients and controls-to investigate the activation state of circulating human eosinophils isolated by flow cytometry. We provide an overview of the global expression pattern in eosinophils in various relevant conditions, e.g., eosinophilic asthma, hypereosinophilic dermatological diseases, parasitosis and pulmonary aspergillosis. Compared to healthy subjects, circulating eosinophils isolated from asthma patients differed in their gene expression profile which is marked by downregulation of transcripts involved in antigen presentation, pathogen recognition and mucosal innate immunity, whereas up-regulated genes were involved in response to non-specific stimulation, wounding and maintenance of homeostasis. Eosinophils from other hypereosinophilic disorders displayed a very similar transcriptional profile. Taken together, these observations seem to indicate that eosinophils exhibit non-specific immunomodulatory functions important for tissue repair and homeostasis and suggest new roles for these cells in asthma immunobiology.

Influence of Cenozoic Plateau Growth on Precipitation and Atmospheric Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Insel, N.; Poulsen, C. J.; Rowley, D. B.

2011-12-01

Large mountain ranges exhibit a first-order control on climate, but it is unclear how climate may have changed over time as topography developed. In this work we use global and regional general circulation models (Genesis3.0, RegCM4) to evaluate dynamical and physical atmospheric changes associated with variations in the Andean and Himalayan topography during the Cenozoic. Our model results show that orogenic plateaus play a critical role in the evolution of climate by affecting atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns. The influence of high topography on regional climate is not purely mechanical through orographic lifting, but also due to modifications of dynamical processes. The uplift of the Andes and Himalaya influence atmospheric flow in the following ways: (1) Orogens act as a barrier to atmospheric flow, thereby changing low-level (800 mbar) wind patterns by causing a reversal and/or significant strengthening of the prevailing winds. The establishment and strength of low-level jets is directly related to mountain elevations. (2) In contrast, monsoonal circulations form without the existence of a plateau, but are modified by high topography through thermal and mechanical effects (e.g. sensible or latent heating, orographic blocking). (3) An increase in the surface pressure gradient between high mountain ranges and the foreland enhances convergence of low-level flow and draws in moisture from adjacent regions. The increase in moisture transport provides the latent heat required to drive convective updrafts and enhances convection and precipitation along the windward flanks of high topography. (4) Regional atmospheric circulation similar to modern are established and amplify as the mountains rise to ~50-75% of their modern elevation. Our model results are largely consistent with proxy evidence of regional climate change, and have implications for the timing and rate of surface plateau uplift. Most importantly, simulated changes in paleoclimate alter oxygen isotope compositions (δ18O) in meteoric water by substantially influencing isotopic source and amount effects. Thus, it is important to distinguish changes in paleo δ18O previously interpreted only to reflect significant surface uplift from orographic thresholds that abruptly change regional climate.

Characterizing ocean gyres formation within a bay using vorticity and HF radar measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragnoli, E.; Donncha, F. O.; Hartnett, M.

2012-04-01

In situations in which wind forcing plays a dominant role in surface currents it becomes important to understand its correlation with parameters that can be used to characterise circulation patterns within a bay. These datasets can then be used in the detection and characterisation of ocean gyres. A network of high frequency radars (NUIG CODAR) is deployed within Galway Bay, on the West Coast of Ireland as a backbone system within an integrated coastal ocean observation system. This system provides real-time synoptic measurements of both ocean surface currents and surface waves across the entire bay. In this work, vorticity is identified as a defining quantity for the characterisation of circulating flow patterns (in particular for the detection of ocean gyres) and it is directly calculated from the measured velocity vectors of NUIG CODAR. A correlation study with wind and tide measurements is then undertaken in order to investigate the dependencies between vorticity and those parameters. A comprehensive NUIG CODAR, weather station and tide gauge monitoring program was conducted over a 30 days period and the data collected analysed for the correlation with the computed vorticity. Tidal information from the FES2004 Global tidal atlas defined surface elevations at the open sea boundaries in the west and in the south. Data from a tide gauge deployed within the bay, which provided real-time tidal data at 6 minute intervals, was used to fine-tune model elevations. A weather station located at National University of Ireland, Galway provided measured wind data for the model. The NUIG CODAR coastal observation system detects strong, non-persistent, gyre formation within Galway Bay. During periods of relatively large tidal ranges (order 4m) and light wind conditions well defined, cyclonic circulation is developed within the bay. The correlation analysis shows that the gyres tend to form soon after high tide and last until the next low water; the gyre structure is transported about the bay with the bulk advection of tidal motion. This is the first time this feature has been observed and the significance of its consequences on water circulation will be the subject of future research.

The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) Contribution to CMIP6: Investigation of Sea-Level and Ocean Climate Change in Response to CO2 Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregory, Jonathan M.; Bouttes, Nathaelle; Griffies, Stephen M.; Haak, Helmuth; Hurlin, William J.; Jungclaus, Johann; Kelley, Maxwell; Lee, Warren G.; Marshall, John; Romanou, Anastasia;

The influence of topography on Titan’s atmospheric circulation and hydrologic cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lora, Juan M.; Faulk, Sean; Mitchell, Jonathan

2017-10-01

Titan’s atmospheric circulation is a dominant driver of the global methane hydrologic cycle—producing weather and a seasonal climate cycle—while interactions between the surface and the troposphere strongly constrain regional climates, and contribute to the differentiation between Titan’s low latitude deserts and high latitude lake districts. Yet the influence of surface topography on the atmospheric circulation has only been studied in a few instances, and no published work has investigated the coupling between topographical forcing and Titan’s hydrologic cycle. In this work, we examine the impacts of global topography in the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM), which includes a robust representation of the methane cycle. We focus in particular on the influence of large-scale topographical features on the atmospheric flow, atmospheric moisture transport, and cloud formation. High latitude transient weather systems have previously been identified as important contributors to global atmospheric methane transport, and here we examine whether topographically-forced stationary or quasi-permanent systems are also important, as they are in Earth’s hydrologic cycle.

Early Pliocene onset of modern Nordic Seas circulation related to ocean gateway changes.

PubMed

De Schepper, Stijn; Schreck, Michael; Beck, Kristina Marie; Matthiessen, Jens; Fahl, Kirsten; Mangerud, Gunn

2015-10-28

The globally warm climate of the early Pliocene gradually cooled from 4 million years ago, synchronous with decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. In contrast, palaeoceanographic records indicate that the Nordic Seas cooled during the earliest Pliocene, before global cooling. However, a lack of knowledge regarding the precise timing of Nordic Seas cooling has limited our understanding of the governing mechanisms. Here, using marine palynology, we show that cooling in the Nordic Seas was coincident with the first trans-Arctic migration of cool-water Pacific mollusks around 4.5 million years ago, and followed by the development of a modern-like Nordic Seas surface circulation. Nordic Seas cooling precedes global cooling by 500,000 years; as such, we propose that reconfiguration of the Bering Strait and Central American Seaway triggered the development of a modern circulation in the Nordic Seas, which is essential for North Atlantic Deep Water formation and a precursor for more widespread Greenland glaciation in the late Pliocene.

An open-access CMIP5 pattern library for temperature and precipitation: description and methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynch, Cary; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Kravitz, Ben

2017-05-01

Pattern scaling is used to efficiently emulate general circulation models and explore uncertainty in climate projections under multiple forcing scenarios. Pattern scaling methods assume that local climate changes scale with a global mean temperature increase, allowing for spatial patterns to be generated for multiple models for any future emission scenario. For uncertainty quantification and probabilistic statistical analysis, a library of patterns with descriptive statistics for each file would be beneficial, but such a library does not presently exist. Of the possible techniques used to generate patterns, the two most prominent are the delta and least squares regression methods. We explore the differences and statistical significance between patterns generated by each method and assess performance of the generated patterns across methods and scenarios. Differences in patterns across seasons between methods and epochs were largest in high latitudes (60-90° N/S). Bias and mean errors between modeled and pattern-predicted output from the linear regression method were smaller than patterns generated by the delta method. Across scenarios, differences in the linear regression method patterns were more statistically significant, especially at high latitudes. We found that pattern generation methodologies were able to approximate the forced signal of change to within ≤ 0.5 °C, but the choice of pattern generation methodology for pattern scaling purposes should be informed by user goals and criteria. This paper describes our library of least squares regression patterns from all CMIP5 models for temperature and precipitation on an annual and sub-annual basis, along with the code used to generate these patterns. The dataset and netCDF data generation code are available at doi:10.5281/zenodo.495632.

Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming.

PubMed

Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

2016-03-22

Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves.

A Babcock-Leighton Solar Dynamo Model with Multi-cellular Meridional Circulation in Advection- and Diffusion-dominated Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belucz, Bernadett; Dikpati, Mausumi; Forgács-Dajka, Emese

2015-06-01

Babcock-Leighton type-solar dynamo models with single-celled meridional circulation are successful in reproducing many solar cycle features. Recent observations and theoretical models of meridional circulation do not indicate a single-celled flow pattern. We examine the role of complex multi-cellular circulation patterns in a Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo in advection- and diffusion-dominated regimes. We show from simulations that the presence of a weak, second, high-latitude reverse cell speeds up the cycle and slightly enhances the poleward branch in the butterfly diagram, whereas the presence of a second cell in depth reverses the tilt of the butterfly wing to an antisolar type. A butterfly diagram constructed from the middle of convection zone yields a solar-like pattern, but this may be difficult to realize in the Sun because of magnetic buoyancy effects. Each of the above cases behaves similarly in higher and lower magnetic diffusivity regimes. However, our dynamo with a meridional circulation containing four cells in latitude behaves distinctly differently in the two regimes, producing solar-like butterfly diagrams with fast cycles in the higher diffusivity regime, and complex branches in butterfly diagrams in the lower diffusivity regime. We also find that dynamo solutions for a four-celled pattern, two in radius and two in latitude, prefer to quickly relax to quadrupolar parity if the bottom flow speed is strong enough, of similar order of magnitude as the surface flow speed.

A BABCOCK–LEIGHTON SOLAR DYNAMO MODEL WITH MULTI-CELLULAR MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION IN ADVECTION- AND DIFFUSION-DOMINATED REGIMES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Belucz, Bernadett; Forgács-Dajka, Emese; Dikpati, Mausumi, E-mail: bbelucz@astro.elte.hu, E-mail: dikpati@ucar.edu

Babcock–Leighton type-solar dynamo models with single-celled meridional circulation are successful in reproducing many solar cycle features. Recent observations and theoretical models of meridional circulation do not indicate a single-celled flow pattern. We examine the role of complex multi-cellular circulation patterns in a Babcock–Leighton solar dynamo in advection- and diffusion-dominated regimes. We show from simulations that the presence of a weak, second, high-latitude reverse cell speeds up the cycle and slightly enhances the poleward branch in the butterfly diagram, whereas the presence of a second cell in depth reverses the tilt of the butterfly wing to an antisolar type. A butterflymore » diagram constructed from the middle of convection zone yields a solar-like pattern, but this may be difficult to realize in the Sun because of magnetic buoyancy effects. Each of the above cases behaves similarly in higher and lower magnetic diffusivity regimes. However, our dynamo with a meridional circulation containing four cells in latitude behaves distinctly differently in the two regimes, producing solar-like butterfly diagrams with fast cycles in the higher diffusivity regime, and complex branches in butterfly diagrams in the lower diffusivity regime. We also find that dynamo solutions for a four-celled pattern, two in radius and two in latitude, prefer to quickly relax to quadrupolar parity if the bottom flow speed is strong enough, of similar order of magnitude as the surface flow speed.« less

Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DU, Y.; Zhang, Y.

2016-02-01

A contrasting trend pattern of sea surface salinity (SSS) between the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) is observed during 2004-2013, with significant salinity increase in the WTP and freshening in the SETIO. In this study, we show that increased precipitation around the Maritime Continent (MC), decreased precipitation in the western-central tropical Pacific, and ocean advection processes contribute to the salinity trends in the region. From a longer historical record, these salinity trends started in the mid-1990s, a few years before the Global Warming Hiatus from 1998 to present. The salinity trends are associated a strengthening trend of the Walker Circulation over the tropical Indo-Pacific, which have reversed the long-term salinity changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific as a consequence of global warming. Understanding decadal variations of SSS in the tropical Indo-Pacific will better inform on how the tropical hydrological cycle will be affected by the natural variability and a warming climate.

Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Yan; Zhang, Yuhong; Feng, Ming; Wang, Tianyu; Zhang, Ningning; Wijffels, Susan

2015-11-01

A contrasting trend pattern of sea surface salinity (SSS) between the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) is observed during 2004-2013, with significant salinity increase in the WTP and freshening in the SETIO. In this study, we show that increased precipitation around the Maritime Continent (MC), decreased precipitation in the western-central tropical Pacific, and ocean advection processes contribute to the salinity trends in the region. From a longer historical record, these salinity trends started in the mid-1990s, a few years before the Global Warming Hiatus from 1998 to present. The salinity trends are associated a strengthening trend of the Walker Circulation over the tropical Indo-Pacific, which have reversed the long-term salinity changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific as a consequence of global warming. Understanding decadal variations of SSS in the tropical Indo-Pacific will better inform on how the tropical hydrological cycle will be affected by the natural variability and a warming climate.

Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s

PubMed Central

Du, Yan; Zhang, Yuhong; Feng, Ming; Wang, Tianyu; Zhang, Ningning; Wijffels, Susan

2015-01-01

A contrasting trend pattern of sea surface salinity (SSS) between the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) is observed during 2004–2013, with significant salinity increase in the WTP and freshening in the SETIO. In this study, we show that increased precipitation around the Maritime Continent (MC), decreased precipitation in the western-central tropical Pacific, and ocean advection processes contribute to the salinity trends in the region. From a longer historical record, these salinity trends started in the mid-1990s, a few years before the Global Warming Hiatus from 1998 to present. The salinity trends are associated a strengthening trend of the Walker Circulation over the tropical Indo-Pacific, which have reversed the long-term salinity changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific as a consequence of global warming. Understanding decadal variations of SSS in the tropical Indo-Pacific will better inform on how the tropical hydrological cycle will be affected by the natural variability and a warming climate. PMID:26522168

Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s.

PubMed

Du, Yan; Zhang, Yuhong; Feng, Ming; Wang, Tianyu; Zhang, Ningning; Wijffels, Susan

2015-11-02

A contrasting trend pattern of sea surface salinity (SSS) between the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) is observed during 2004-2013, with significant salinity increase in the WTP and freshening in the SETIO. In this study, we show that increased precipitation around the Maritime Continent (MC), decreased precipitation in the western-central tropical Pacific, and ocean advection processes contribute to the salinity trends in the region. From a longer historical record, these salinity trends started in the mid-1990s, a few years before the Global Warming Hiatus from 1998 to present. The salinity trends are associated a strengthening trend of the Walker Circulation over the tropical Indo-Pacific, which have reversed the long-term salinity changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific as a consequence of global warming. Understanding decadal variations of SSS in the tropical Indo-Pacific will better inform on how the tropical hydrological cycle will be affected by the natural variability and a warming climate.

TOPEX/POSEIDON - Mapping the ocean surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yamarone, C. A.; Rosell, S.; Farless, D. L.

1986-01-01

Global efforts are under way to model the earth as a complete planet so that weather patterns may be predicted on time scales of months and years. A major limitation in developing models of global weather is the inability to model the circulation of the oceans including the geostrophic surface currents. NASA will soon be initiating a satellite program to correct this deficiency by directly measuring these currents using the science of radar altimetry. Measurement of the ocean topography with broad, frequent coverage of all ocean basins for a long period of time will allow the derivation of the spatial and temporal behavior of surface ocean currents. The TOPEX/POSEIDON mission is a cooperative effort between NASA and the French Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales. This paper describes the goals of this research mission, the data type to be acquired, the satellite and sensors to be used to acquire the data, and the methods by which the data are to be processed and utilized.

The early vs the late 20th century Arctic warming: The role of energy and aerosol fluxes in reanalysis driven datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wegmann, Martin; Broennimann, Stefan

2014-05-01

During the last two decades, the Arctic was put into the scientific focus as one of the most impacted regions worldwide concerning anthropogenic global warming. However, the warming between 1920 and 1940 proofs the importance of internal variability on yearly and decadal scale. Therefore, it is important to further investigate the role of external and internal forcings on the Arctic climate attribute process and causes leading to changes in the Arctic climate regime (Serreze & Barry 2009). Although much research effort was spent to understand the links and influences of and on the Arctic climate, there is still a need for further insights concerning this topic. Especially the results and discussion about anthropogenic global warming and Arctic amplification put the Arctic into the public and academic focus (Serreze & Barry 2011). However, the early 20th century Arctic warming, although discovered immediately, was scientifically forgotten until recently (Delworth & Knutson 2000, Bengtsson et al 2004, Grant et al 2009, Bekryaev et al 2010). The comparison of this earlier Arctic warming and the recent warming period grants a chance to deepen knowledge about the drivers of Arctic climate and can be used to evaluate the anthropogenic impact. The authors use the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset and a nudged, reanalysis-driven Aerosol Global Circulation Model (A-GCM) to investigate the impact of atmospheric energy and aerosol fluxes into the Arctic during the 20th century. The 20CR dataset covers the period of 1871 - 2010 with a temporal resolution of 6hr and a spatial resolution of 2° x 2°. For the first time, this dataset (and ist 56 ensemble member) is used to compute the atmospheric energy flux, consisting of sensble heat, latent heat, potential energy and kinetic energy. The values are integrated around 70° N and between 1000 - 100 hPa. Aerosol fluxes for the same domain but for the years 1957 - 2000 are calculated based on the A-GCM nudged to the ECMWF 40 year Re-analysis (ERA) and correlated to circulation patterns. Based on these dataset we analyze timeseries and patterns of several variables, with a focus on the temperature changes in the Arctic domain. We show that the 20CR can recreate recent sensible heat fluxes, meaning from the 1950s onward. Before this timeperiod 20CR exhibits a strong positive energy influx between 1920 and 1930, which is difficult to validate, however probably arises due to missrepresentation of local wind maxima, mostly over the Canadian Arctic. The authors highlight the impact of this flaw by investigating snow cover and atmospheric stability over the Arctic. Finally, the two datasets are compared and exemplary extreme events in aerosol fluxes are analysed in terms of warming impact and the related circulation patterns. Possible implications for the future use of 20CR are discussed, together with the impact of our findings for the interpretation of the early 20th warming in todays context.

Variability of Changjiang Diluted Water revealed by a 45-year long-term ocean hindcast and Self-Organizing Maps analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Xiangming; He, Ruoying; Zong, Haibo

2017-08-01

Based on long-term realistic ocean circulation hindcast for in the Bohai, Yellow, and East China Seas, 45 years (1961-2005) of sea surface salinity data were analyzed using Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) to have a better understanding of the Changjiang Diluted Water (CDW) variation. Three spatial patterns were revealed by the SOM: normal, transition, and extension. The normal pattern mainly occurs from December to May while the CDW hugs China's east coast closely and flows southward. The extension pattern is dominant from June to October when the CDW extends northwestward toward Jeju Island in an omega shape. The transition pattern prevails for the rest of the year. Pattern-averaged temperature, circulation, and chlorophyll-a concentration show significant differences. CDW area and its eastern most extension were explored as a function of the Changjiang runoff and regional upwelling index. We found that Changjiang runoff and upwelling index can be reasonable predictors for the overall CDW area, while ambient circulation determines the distribution and structure of the CDW, and thus the CDW eastern most extension.

Consortial Book Circulation Patterns: The OCLC-OhioLINK Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Neill, Edward T.; Gammon, Julia A.

2014-01-01

The OhioLINK consortium and OCLC Research collected and analyzed circulation data for libraries within the consortium. The study, which examines the circulation of 28,475,701 items from more than 100 academic libraries, is the largest and most diverse compilation of academic usage data for books ever collected. The authors outline the study…

Host specialization in ticks and transmission of tick-borne diseases: a review

PubMed Central

McCoy, Karen D.; Léger, Elsa; Dietrich, Muriel

2013-01-01

Determining patterns of host use, and the frequency at which these patterns change, are of key importance if we are to understand tick population dynamics, the evolution of tick biodiversity, and the circulation and evolution of associated pathogens. The question of whether ticks are typically host specialists or host generalists has been subject to much debate over the last half-century. Indeed, early research proposed that morphological diversity in ticks was linked to host specific adaptations and that most ticks were specialists. Later work disputed this idea and suggested that ticks are largely limited by biogeographic conditions and tend to use all locally available host species. The work presented in this review suggests that the actual answer likely lies somewhere between these two extremes. Although recent observational studies support the view that phylogenetically diverse host species share ticks when found on similar ecological ranges, theory on host range evolution predicts that host specialization should evolve in ticks given their life history characteristics. Contemporary work employing population genetic tools to examine host-associated population structure in several tick systems support this prediction and show that simple species records are not enough to determine whether a parasite is a true host generalist; host specialization does evolve in ticks at local scales, but may not always lead to speciation. Ticks therefore seem to follow a pattern of being global generalists, local specialists. Given this, the notion of host range needs to be modified from an evolutionary perspective, where one simply counts the number of hosts used across the geographic distribution, to a more ecological view, where one considers host use at a local scale, if we are to better understand the circulation of tick-borne pathogens and exposure risks for humans and livestock. PMID:24109592

Host specialization in ticks and transmission of tick-borne diseases: a review.

PubMed

McCoy, Karen D; Léger, Elsa; Dietrich, Muriel

2013-01-01

Determining patterns of host use, and the frequency at which these patterns change, are of key importance if we are to understand tick population dynamics, the evolution of tick biodiversity, and the circulation and evolution of associated pathogens. The question of whether ticks are typically host specialists or host generalists has been subject to much debate over the last half-century. Indeed, early research proposed that morphological diversity in ticks was linked to host specific adaptations and that most ticks were specialists. Later work disputed this idea and suggested that ticks are largely limited by biogeographic conditions and tend to use all locally available host species. The work presented in this review suggests that the actual answer likely lies somewhere between these two extremes. Although recent observational studies support the view that phylogenetically diverse host species share ticks when found on similar ecological ranges, theory on host range evolution predicts that host specialization should evolve in ticks given their life history characteristics. Contemporary work employing population genetic tools to examine host-associated population structure in several tick systems support this prediction and show that simple species records are not enough to determine whether a parasite is a true host generalist; host specialization does evolve in ticks at local scales, but may not always lead to speciation. Ticks therefore seem to follow a pattern of being global generalists, local specialists. Given this, the notion of host range needs to be modified from an evolutionary perspective, where one simply counts the number of hosts used across the geographic distribution, to a more ecological view, where one considers host use at a local scale, if we are to better understand the circulation of tick-borne pathogens and exposure risks for humans and livestock.

Historical evidence for a connection between volcanic eruptions and climate change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rampino, Michael R.

1991-01-01

The times of historical volcanic aerosol clouds were compared with changes in atmospheric temperatures on regional, hemispheric, and global scales. These involve either a direct comparison of individual significant eruption years with temperature records, or a comparison of eruption years with composited temperature records for several years before and after chosen sets of eruptions. Some studies have challenged the connection between individual eruptions and climate change. Mass and Portman (1989) recently suggested that the volcanic signal was present, but smaller than previously thought. In a study designed to test the idea that eruptions could cause small changes in climate, Hansen and other (1978) chose one of the best monitored eruptions at the time, the 1963 eruption of Agung volcano on the island of Bali. Using a simple radiation-balance model, in which an aerosol cloud in the tropics was simulated, this basic pattern of temperature change in the tropics and subtropics was reproduced. There may be natural limits to the atmospheric effects of any volcanic eruption. Self-limiting physical and chemical effects in eruption clouds were proposed. Model results suggest that aerosol microphysical processes of condensation and coagulation produce larger aerosols as the SO2 injection rate is increased. The key to discovering the greatest effects of volcanoes on short-term climate may be to concentrate on regional temperatures where the effects of volcanic aerosol clouds can be amplified by perturbed atmospheric circulation patterns, especially changes in mid-latitudes where meridional circulation patterns may develop. Such climatic perturbations can be detected in proxy evidence such as decreases in tree-ring widths and frost damage rings in climatically sensitive parts of the world, changes in treelines, weather anomalies such as unusually cold summers, severity of sea-ice in polar and subpolar regions, and poor grain yields and crop failures.

The role of the NAO on the North Atlantic hydrological conditions and its interplay with the EA and SCAND atmospheric patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, A.; Rubio-Ingles, M. J.; Shanahan, T. M.; Sáez, A.; Raposeiro, P. M.; Vázquez-Loureiro, D.; Sánchez-López, G.; Gonçalves, V. M.; Bao, R.; Trigo, R.; Giralt, S.

2016-12-01

The NAO is the main atmospheric circulation mode controlling the largest fraction of the North Atlantic climate variability. It is defined by the normalized air pressure difference between the Azores High and the Iceland Low as the southern and northern centers of action of the dipole respectively. The NAO pattern has large influence over the precipitation regime in the North Atlantic and the western facade of Europe. Thus, the Lake Azul (São Miguel island, Azores archipelago), with a strategic location in the middle of the north Atlantic Ocean, is influenced by variations on intensity and position of the southern NAO center of action. The reconstruction of the past hydrological conditions in lake location for the last 700 years was obtained by means of high resolution δD plant leaf wax analyses, a proxy for the Precipitation/Evaporation ratio. The 700 years of climatic history included the end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the modern Global Warming (GW). The hydrological results showed multidecadal variations with no particular conditions at any climatic period. Overall, the MCA (1285 - 1350 AD) displayed mostly dry conditions, the LIA (1350 - 1820 AD) was mainly wet and, the last 200 years of record showed highly variable conditions. The lake Azul hydrological variations have been compared with a wide range of additional proxy datasets, including: documentary, ice, tree rings, speleothem, lacustrine and oceanic records from the North Atlantic. This comparison has allowed us to understand the decadal and centennial imprints of the NAO as well as to infer its interaction with other relevant large-scale circulation patterns over this sector, such as the Eastern Atlantic (EA) and the Scandinavian (SCAND) climate modes.

Southward shift of the global wind energy resource under high carbon dioxide emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Lundquist, Julie K.; Zhang, Lei

2018-01-01

The use of wind energy resource is an integral part of many nations' strategies towards realizing the carbon emissions reduction targets set forth in the Paris Agreement, and global installed wind power cumulative capacity has grown on average by 22% per year since 2006. However, assessments of wind energy resource are usually based on today's climate, rather than taking into account that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions continue to modify the global atmospheric circulation. Here, we apply an industry wind turbine power curve to simulations of high and low future emissions scenarios in an ensemble of ten fully coupled global climate models to investigate large-scale changes in wind power across the globe. Our calculations reveal decreases in wind power across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and increases across the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, with substantial regional variations. The changes across the northern mid-latitudes are robust responses over time in both emissions scenarios, whereas the Southern Hemisphere changes appear critically sensitive to each individual emissions scenario. In addition, we find that established features of climate change can explain these patterns: polar amplification is implicated in the northern mid-latitude decrease in wind power, and enhanced land-sea thermal gradients account for the tropical and southern subtropical increases.

The global distribution of Banana bunchy top virus reveals little evidence for frequent recent, human-mediated long distance dispersal events

PubMed Central

Stainton, Daisy; Martin, Darren P.; Muhire, Brejnev M.; Lolohea, Samiuela; Halafihi, Mana’ia; Lepoint, Pascale; Blomme, Guy; Crew, Kathleen S.; Sharman, Murray; Kraberger, Simona; Dayaram, Anisha; Walters, Matthew; Collings, David A.; Mabvakure, Batsirai; Lemey, Philippe; Harkins, Gordon W.; Thomas, John E.; Varsani, Arvind

2015-01-01

Banana bunchy top virus (BBTV; family Nanoviridae, genus Babuvirus) is a multi-component single-stranded DNA virus, which infects banana plants in many regions of the world, often resulting in large-scale crop losses. We analyzed 171 banana leaf samples from fourteen countries and recovered, cloned, and sequenced 855 complete BBTV components including ninety-four full genomes. Importantly, full genomes were determined from eight countries, where previously no full genomes were available (Samoa, Burundi, Republic of Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the USA [HI]). Accounting for recombination and genome component reassortment, we examined the geographic structuring of global BBTV populations to reveal that BBTV likely originated in Southeast Asia, that the current global hotspots of BBTV diversity are Southeast Asia/Far East and India, and that BBTV populations circulating elsewhere in the world have all potentially originated from infrequent introductions. Most importantly, we find that rather than the current global BBTV distribution being due to increases in human-mediated movements of bananas over the past few decades, it is more consistent with a pattern of infrequent introductions of the virus to different parts of the world over the past 1,000 years. PMID:27774281

The global distribution of Banana bunchy top virus reveals little evidence for frequent recent, human-mediated long distance dispersal events.

PubMed

Stainton, Daisy; Martin, Darren P; Muhire, Brejnev M; Lolohea, Samiuela; Halafihi, Mana'ia; Lepoint, Pascale; Blomme, Guy; Crew, Kathleen S; Sharman, Murray; Kraberger, Simona; Dayaram, Anisha; Walters, Matthew; Collings, David A; Mabvakure, Batsirai; Lemey, Philippe; Harkins, Gordon W; Thomas, John E; Varsani, Arvind

2015-01-01

Banana bunchy top virus (BBTV; family Nanoviridae, genus Babuvirus ) is a multi-component single-stranded DNA virus, which infects banana plants in many regions of the world, often resulting in large-scale crop losses. We analyzed 171 banana leaf samples from fourteen countries and recovered, cloned, and sequenced 855 complete BBTV components including ninety-four full genomes. Importantly, full genomes were determined from eight countries, where previously no full genomes were available (Samoa, Burundi, Republic of Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the USA [HI]). Accounting for recombination and genome component reassortment, we examined the geographic structuring of global BBTV populations to reveal that BBTV likely originated in Southeast Asia, that the current global hotspots of BBTV diversity are Southeast Asia/Far East and India, and that BBTV populations circulating elsewhere in the world have all potentially originated from infrequent introductions. Most importantly, we find that rather than the current global BBTV distribution being due to increases in human-mediated movements of bananas over the past few decades, it is more consistent with a pattern of infrequent introductions of the virus to different parts of the world over the past 1,000 years.

The role of North Atlantic Ocean circulation and biological sequestration on atmospheric CO2 uptake during the last deglaciation (CL Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muschitiello, Francesco; D'Andrea, William J.; Dokken, Trond M.; Schmittner, Andreas

2017-04-01

Understanding the impact of ocean circulation on the global atmospheric CO2 budget is of paramount importance for anticipating the consequences of projected future changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In particular, the efficiency of the oceanic biological pump can impact atmospheric CO2 through changes in vertical carbon export mediated by variations in the nutrient inventory of the North Atlantic basin. However, the causal relationship between North Atlantic Ocean circulation, biological carbon sequestration, and atmospheric CO2 is poorly understood. Here we present new high-resolution planktic-benthic 14C data and biomarker records from an exceptionally well-dated marine core from the Nordic Seas spanning the last deglaciation ( 15,000-10,000 years BP). The records document for the first time large and rapid atmospheric CO2 drawdowns and increase in plankton stocks during major North Atlantic cooling events. Using transient climate simulations from a fully coupled climate-biosphere model, we show that minor perturbations of the North Atlantic biological pump resulting from surface freshening and AMOC weakening can have a major impact on the global atmospheric CO2 budget. Furthermore, our data help clarifying the timing and magnitude of the deglacial CO2 signal recorded in Antarctic ice cores. We conclude that the global CO2 budget is more sensitive to perturbations in North Atlantic circulation than previously thought, which has significance in the future debate of the AMOC response to anthropogenic warming.

NASA Supercomputer Improves Prospects for Ocean Climate Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Menemenlis, D.; Hill, C.; Adcroft, A.; Campin, J. -M.; Cheng, B.; Ciotti, B.; Fukumori, I.; Heimbach, P.; Henze, C.; Kohl, A.;

Assimilation of TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data into a global ocean circulation model: How good are the results?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukumori, Ichiro; Raghunath, Ramanujam; Fu, Lee-Lueng; Chao, Yi

1999-11-01

The feasibility of assimilating satellite altimetry data into a global ocean general circulation model is studied. Three years of TOPEX/Poseidon data are analyzed using a global, three-dimensional, nonlinear primitive equation model. The assimilation's success is examined by analyzing its consistency and reliability measured by formal error estimates with respect to independent measurements. Improvements in model solution are demonstrated, in particular, properties not directly measured. Comparisons are performed with sea level measured by tide gauges, subsurface temperatures and currents from moorings, and bottom pressure measurements. Model representation errors dictate what can and cannot be resolved by assimilation, and its identification is emphasized.

Probability of US Heat Waves Affected by a Subseasonal Planetary Wave Pattern

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teng, Haiyan; Branstator, Grant; Wang, Hailan; Meehl, Gerald A.; Washington, Warren M.

2013-01-01

Heat waves are thought to result from subseasonal atmospheric variability. Atmospheric phenomena driven by tropical convection, such as the Asian monsoon, have been considered potential sources of predictability on subseasonal timescales. Mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics have been considered too chaotic to allow significant prediction skill of lead times beyond the typical 10-day range of weather forecasts. Here we use a 12,000-year integration of an atmospheric general circulation model to identify a pattern of subseasonal atmospheric variability that can help improve forecast skill for heat waves in the United States. We find that heat waves tend to be preceded by 15-20 days by a pattern of anomalous atmospheric planetary waves with a wavenumber of 5. This circulation pattern can arise as a result of internal atmospheric dynamics and is not necessarily linked to tropical heating.We conclude that some mid-latitude circulation anomalies that increase the probability of heat waves are predictable beyond the typical weather forecast range.

Distribution of N2O in the atmosphere under global warming - a simulation study with the MPI Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kracher, Daniela; Manzini, Elisa; Reick, Christian H.; Schultz, Martin; Stein, Olaf

2014-05-01

Climate change is driven by an increasing release of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide (N2O). Besides fossil fuel burning, also land use change and land management are anthropogenic sources of GHGs. Especially inputs of reactive nitrogen via fertilizer and deposition lead to enhanced emissions of N2O. One effect of a drastic future increase in surface temperature is a modification of atmospheric circulation, e.g. an accelerated Brewer Dobson circulation affecting the exchange between troposphere and stratosphere. N2O is inert in the troposphere and decayed only in the stratosphere. Thus, changes in atmospheric circulation, especially changes in the exchange between troposphere and stratosphere, will affect the atmospheric transport, decay, and distribution of N2O. In our study we assess the impact of global warming on atmospheric circulation and implied effects on the distribution and lifetime of atmospheric N2O. As terrestrial N2O emissions are highly determined by inputs of reactive nitrogen - the location of which being determined by human choice - we examine in particular the importance of latitudinal source regions of N2O for its global distribution. For this purpose we apply the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, MPI-ESM. MPI-ESM consists of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM, the land surface model JSBACH, and MPIOM/HAMOCC representing ocean circulation and ocean biogeochemistry. Prognostic atmospheric N2O concentrations in MPI-ESM are determined by land N2O emissions, ocean N2O exchange and atmospheric tracer transport. As stratospheric chemistry is not explicitly represented in MPI-ESM, stratospheric decay rates of N2O are prescribed from a MACC MOZART simulation.

Clouds and the extratropical circulation response to global warming in a hierarchy of global atmosphere models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, A.

2017-12-01

Climate models project that global warming will lead to substantial changes in extratropical jet streams. Yet, many quantitative aspects of warming-induced jet stream changes remain uncertain, and recent work has indicated an important role of clouds and their radiative interactions. Here, I will investigate how cloud-radiative changes impact the zonal-mean extratropical circulation response under global warming using a hierarchy of global atmosphere models. I will first focus on aquaplanet setups with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), which reproduce the model spread found in realistic simulations with interactive SSTs. Simulations with two CMIP5 models MPI-ESM and IPSL-CM5A and prescribed clouds show that half of the circulation response can be attributed to cloud changes. The rise of tropical high-level clouds and the upward and poleward movement of midlatitude high-level clouds lead to poleward jet shifts. High-latitude low-level cloud changes shift the jet poleward in one model but not in the other. The impact of clouds on the jet operates via the atmospheric radiative forcing that is created by the cloud changes and is qualitatively reproduced in a dry Held-Suarez model, although the latter is too sensitive because of its simplified treatment of diabatic processes. I will then show that the aquaplanet results also hold when the models are used in a realistic setup that includes continents and seasonality. I will further juxtapose these prescribed-SST simulations with interactive-SST simulations and show that atmospheric and surface cloud-radiative interactions impact the jet poleward jet shifts in about equal measure. Finally, I will discuss the cloud impact on regional and seasonal circulation changes.

Three-dimensional turbulence-resolving modeling of the Venusian cloud layer and induced gravity waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lefèvre, Maxence; Spiga, Aymeric; Lebonnois, Sébastien

2017-04-01

The impact of the cloud convective layer of the atmosphere of Venus on the global circulation remains unclear. The recent observations of gravity waves at the top of the cloud by the Venus Express mission provided some answers. These waves are not resolved at the scale of global circulation models (GCM), therefore we developed an unprecedented 3D turbulence-resolving Large-Eddy Simulations (LES) Venusian model (Lefèvre et al, 2016 JGR Planets) using the Weather Research and Forecast terrestrial model. The forcing consists of three different heating rates : two radiative ones for solar and infrared and one associated with the adiabatic cooling/warming of the global circulation. The rates are extracted from the Laboratoire de Météorlogie Dynamique (LMD) Venus GCM using two different cloud models. Thus we are able to characterize the convection and associated gravity waves in function of latitude and local time. To assess the impact of the global circulation on the convective layer, we used rates from a 1D radiative-convective model. The resolved layer, taking place between 1.0 105 and 3.8 104 Pa (48-53 km), is organized as polygonal closed cells of about 10 km wide with vertical wind of several meters per second. The convection emits gravity waves both above and below the convective layer leading to temperature perturbations of several tenths of Kelvin with vertical wavelength between 1 and 3 km and horizontal wavelength from 1 to 10 km. The thickness of the convective layer and the amplitudes of waves are consistent with observations, though slightly underestimated. The global dynamics heating greatly modify the convective layer.

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission: Monitoring the Global Tropics for 3 Years and Beyond. 1.1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, Marshall; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) was launched in November 1997 as a joint U.S.-Japanese mission to advance understanding of the global energy and water cycle by providing distributions of rainfall and latent heating over the global tropics. As a part of NASA's Earth System Enterprise, TRMM seeks to understand the mechanisms through which changes in tropical rainfall influence global circulation. Additionally, a goal is to improve the ability to model these processes in order to predict global circulations and rainfall variability at monthly and longer time scales. Such understanding has implications for assessing climate processes related to El Nino/La Nina and Global Warming. TRMM has also provided unexpected and exciting new knowledge and applications in areas related to hurricane monitoring, lightning, pollution, hydrology, and other areas. This CD-ROM includes a self-contained PowerPoint presentation that provides an overview of TRMM and significant science results; a set of data movies or animation; and listings of current TRMM-related publications in the literature.

U.S. GODAE: Global Ocean Prediction with the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-30

major contributors to the strength of the Gulf Stream, (1) the wind forcing, (2) the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and (3) a...convergence and sensitivity studies with North Atlantic circulation models. Part I. The western boundary current system. Ocean Model., 16, 141-159...a baroclinic version of ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC), the latter an unstructured grid model for baroclinic coastal/estuarian applications. NCOM is

Inner-core Vacillation Cycles during the Intensification of Hurricane Katrina

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-04-01

symmetric overturning circulation draws air from outer radii above the boundary layer while conserving absolute angular momentum. This symmetric...azimuthal momentum by the mean overturning circulation . The resulting increase in the vertical shear of the azimuthal-mean tangential wind that develops in... meridional circulation in a circular vortex. Astrophysica Norvegica 5: 19–60. Elsberry R, Frank W, Holland G, Jarrel J, Southern R. 1987. A Global

A new precipitation and meteorological drought climatology based on weather patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, D.; Fowler, H. J.; Kilsby, C. G.; Neal, R.

2017-12-01

Weather-pattern, or weather-type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterise the broad-scale atmospheric circulation over a given region. An analysis of regional UK precipitation and meteorological drought climatology with respect to a set of objectively defined weather patterns is presented. This classification system, introduced last year, is currently being used by the Met Office in several probabilistic forecasting applications driven by ensemble forecasting systems. The classification consists of 30 daily patterns derived from North Atlantic Ocean and European mean sea level pressure data. Clustering these 30 patterns yields another set of eight patterns that are intended for use in longer-range applications. Weather pattern definitions and daily occurrences are mapped to the commonly-used Lamb Weather Types (LWTs), and parallels between the two classifications are drawn. Daily precipitation distributions are associated with each weather pattern and LWT. Drought index series are calculated for a range of aggregation periods and seasons. Monthly weather-pattern frequency anomalies are calculated for different drought index thresholds, representing dry, wet and drought conditions. The set of 30 weather patterns is shown to be adequate for precipitation-based analyses in the UK, although the smaller set of clustered patterns is not. Furthermore, intra-pattern precipitation variability is lower in the new classification compared to the LWTs, which is an advantage in the context of precipitation studies. Weather patterns associated with drought over the different UK regions are identified. This has potential forecasting application - if a model (e.g. a global seasonal forecast model) can predict weather pattern occurrences then regional drought outlooks may be derived from the forecasted weather patterns.

Global circulation as the main source of cloud activity on Titan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodriguez, S.; Le, Mouelic S.; Rannou, P.; Tobie, G.; Baines, K.H.; Barnes, J.W.; Griffith, C.A.; Hirtzig, M.; Pitman, K.M.; Sotin, Christophe; Brown, R.H.; Buratti, B.J.; Clark, R.N.; Nicholson, P.D.

2009-01-01

Clouds on Titan result from the condensation of methane and ethane and, as on other planets, are primarily structured by circulation of the atmosphere. At present, cloud activity mainly occurs in the southern (summer) hemisphere, arising near the pole and at mid-latitudes from cumulus updrafts triggered by surface heating and/or local methane sources, and at the north (winter) pole, resulting from the subsidence and condensation of ethane-rich air into the colder troposphere. General circulation models predict that this distribution should change with the seasons on a 15-year timescale, and that clouds should develop under certain circumstances at temperate latitudes (40??) in the winter hemisphere. The models, however, have hitherto been poorly constrained and their long-term predictions have not yet been observationally verified. Here we report that the global spatial cloud coverage on Titan is in general agreement with the models, confirming that cloud activity is mainly controlled by the global circulation. The non-detection of clouds at latitude 40??N and the persistence of the southern clouds while the southern summer is ending are, however, both contrary to predictions. This suggests that Titans equator-to-pole thermal contrast is overestimated in the models and that its atmosphere responds to the seasonal forcing with a greater inertia than expected. ?? 2009 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jianjun; Schlesinger, Michael E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.

2009-04-01

Human-induced climate change could cause global sea-level rise. Through the dynamic adjustment of the sea surface in response to a possible slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a warming climate could also affect regional sea levels, especially in the North Atlantic region, leading to high vulnerability for low-lying Florida and western Europe. Here we analyse climate projections from a set of state-of-the-art climate models for such regional changes, and find a rapid dynamical rise in sea level on the northeast coast of the United States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the rise due to ocean circulation changes amounts to 15, 20 and 21cm for scenarios with low, medium and high rates of emissions respectively, at a similar magnitude to expected global thermal expansion. Analysing one of the climate models in detail, we find that a dynamic, regional rise in sea level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea-level rise. We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated northeastern United States than estimated previously.

Model Projections of Rapid Sea-Level Rise on the Northeast Coast of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, J.; Schlesinger, M.; Stouffer, R. J.

2009-12-01

Human-induced climate change could cause global sea-level rise. Through the dynamic adjustment of the sea surface in response to a possible slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a warming climate could also affect regional sea levels, especially in the North Atlantic region, leading to high vulnerability for low-lying Florida and western Europe. In the present study, we analyse climate projections from a set of state-of-the-art climate models for such regional changes, and find a rapid dynamical rise in sea level on the northeast coast of the United States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the rise due to ocean circulation changes amounts to 15, 20 and 21 cm for scenarios with low, medium and high rates of emissions respectively, at a similar magnitude to expected global thermal expansion. Analysing one of the climate models in detail, we find that a dynamic, regional rise in sea level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea level rise. We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated northeastern United States than estimated previously.

Wind driven nutrient and subsurface chlorophyll-a enhancement in the Bay of La Paz, Gulf of California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coria-Monter, Erik; Monreal-Gómez, María Adela; Salas de León, David Alberto; Durán-Campos, Elizabeth; Merino-Ibarra, Martín

2017-09-01

Nutrient and chlorophyll-a distributions in the Bay of La Paz, Gulf of California, Mexico were analyzed during the late spring of 2004 to assess their relations to hydrography and circulation patterns. The results show the presence of both Gulf of California Water and Subtropical Subsurface Water. Water circulation was dominated by wind stress driven cyclonic circulation along f / H contours (f is planetary vorticity and H is depth), and upwelling resulting from the divergence shows a vertical velocity of ∼0.4 m d-1. Nutrient concentrations were higher in the center of the cyclonic pattern, where a rise in the nutricline contributed nutrients to the euphotic layer as a result of Ekman pumping. The vertical section showed the presence of a chlorophyll-a maximum at the thermocline shoaling to a depth of only 12 m. Along the surface, two peaks of chlorophyll-a were observed, one at Boca Grande and another off San Juan de la Costa, associated with upwelling and mixing derived from current interactions with abrupt topographies. The chlorophyll-a maximum increased from 0.8 mg m-3 in the external part of the cyclonic pattern to 2.0 mg m-3 in its center. The vertically integrated chlorophyll-a concentrations followed a similar pattern, rising from 10 to 20 mg m-2 and reaching their highest values in the center of the cyclonic circulation pattern. A schematic model was developed to describe processes that occur in late spring: the wind stress driven cyclonic structure promotes upward nutrient flux, which in turn drives an enhancement of chlorophyll-a. Upwelling was found to be the main mechanism of fertilization responsible for the enhancement of productivity levels by means of nutrient transport into the euphotic zone during spring. Other chlorophyll enhancement areas point to the occurrence of additional fertilization processes that may derive from interactions between cyclonic circulation patterns and the topography off of San Juan de la Costa, where phosphate mining occurs.

A USCLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Wang, Hailan; Koster, Randal; Weaver, Scott; Gutzler, David; Dai, Aiguo; Delworth, Tom; Deser, Clara; Findell, Kristen; Fu, Rong;

Global warming hiatus contributed to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia.

PubMed

Zhao, Jiuwei; Zhan, Ruifen; Wang, Yuqing

2018-04-16

The recent global warming hiatus (GWH) was characterized by a La Niña-like cooling in the tropical Eastern Pacific accompanied with the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming. Here we show that the recent GWH contributed significantly to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia since 1998. The GWH associated sea surface temperature anomalies triggered a pair of anomalous cyclonic and anticyclonic circulations and equatorial easterly anomalies over the Northwest Pacific, which favored TC genesis and intensification over the western Northwest Pacific but suppressed TC genesis and intensification over the southeastern Northwest Pacific due to increased vertical wind shear and anticyclonic circulation anomalies. Results from atmospheric general circulation model experiments demonstrate that the Pacific La Niña-like cooling dominated the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming in contributing to the observed GWH-related anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Northwest Pacific.

The Pale Blue Dot: Utilizing Real World Globes in High School and Undergraduate Oceanography Classrooms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, D. B.

2017-12-01

Geoscience classrooms have benefitted greatly from the use of interactive, dry-erasable globes to supplement instruction on topics that require three-dimensional visualization, such as seismic wave propagation and the large-scale movements of tectonic plates. Indeed, research by Bamford (2013) demonstrates that using three-dimensional visualization to illustrate complex processes enhances student comprehension. While some geoscience courses tend to bake-in lessons on visualization, other disciplines of earth science that require three-dimensional visualization, such as oceanography, tend to rely on students' prior spatial abilities. In addition to spatial intelligence, education on the three-dimensional structure of the ocean requires knowledge of the external processes govern the behavior of the ocean, as well as the vertical and lateral distribution of water properties around the globe. Presented here are two oceanographic activities that utilize RealWorldGlobes' dry-erase globes to supplement traditional oceanography lessons on thermohaline and surface ocean circulation. While simultaneously promoting basic plotting techniques, mathematical calculations, and unit conversions, these activities touch on the processes that govern global ocean circulation, the principles of radiocarbon dating, and the various patterns exhibited by surface ocean currents. These activities challenge students to recognize inherent patterns within their data and synthesize explanations for their occurrence. Spatial visualization and critical thinking are integral to any geoscience education, and the combination of these abilities with engaging hands-on activities has the potential to greatly enhance oceanography education in both secondary and postsecondary settings

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, P. J.; Blackport, R.

2016-12-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them.

Rapid sea level rise and ice sheet response to 8,200-year climate event

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, T. M.; Vogt, P.R.; Willard, D.A.; Thunell, R.; Halka, J.; Berke, M.; Pohlman, J.

2007-01-01

The largest abrupt climatic reversal of the Holocene interglacial, the cooling event 8.6–8.2 thousand years ago (ka), was probably caused by catastrophic release of glacial Lake Agassiz-Ojibway, which slowed Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and cooled global climate. Geophysical surveys and sediment cores from Chesapeake Bay reveal the pattern of sea level rise during this event. Sea level rose ∼14 m between 9.5 to 7.5 ka, a pattern consistent with coral records and the ICE-5G glacio-isostatic adjustment model. There were two distinct periods at ∼8.9–8.8 and ∼8.2–7.6 ka when Chesapeake marshes were drown as sea level rose rapidly at least ∼12 mm yr−1. The latter event occurred after the 8.6–8.2 ka cooling event, coincided with extreme warming and vigorous AMOC centered on 7.9 ka, and may have been due to Antarctic Ice Sheet decay.

A climate model diagnostic metric for the Madden-Julian oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez, A. O.; Jiang, X.

2016-12-01

Despite its significant impacts on global weather and climate, the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) remains a grand challenge for state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs). The eastward propagation of the MJO is often poorly simulated in GCMs, represented by a stationary or even westward propagating mode. Recent analyses based on moist static energy processes suggest the horizontal advection of the winter mean moist static energy by the MJO circulation plays a critical role in the observed eastward propagation of the MJO. In this study, we explore relationships between model fidelity in representing the eastward propagation of the MJO and the winter mean lower-tropospheric moisture pattern by analyzing a suite of GCMs from a recent multi-model MJO comparison project. Model capability of reproducing the observed spatial pattern of the 650-900 hPa winter mean specific humidity is a robust indicator of how well they reproduce the MJO's eastward propagation. In particular, model skill in simulating the low-level winter mean specific humidity over the Maritime Continent region (20°S-20°N, 90°-135°E) is highly correlated with model skill of MJO propagation across the 23 GCMs analyzed, with a correlation of about 0.8. Winter mean lower-tropospheric moisture patterns over two other regions, including the western Indian Ocean and an off-equatorial region in the central Indian Ocean, also exhibit high correlations with MJO propagation skill in the model simulations. This study supports recent studies in highlighting the importance of the mean low-level moisture for MJO propagation and it points out a direction for model improvement of the MJO. Meanwhile, it is also suggested that the winter mean low-level moisture pattern over the Indo-Pacific region, particularly over the Maritime Continent region, can serve as a diagnostic metric for the eastward propagation of the MJO in climate model assessments.

Tropical Cyclone Signatures in Atmospheric Convective Available Potential Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Studholme, Joshua; Gulev, Sergey

2016-04-01

Tropical cyclones play an important role in the climate system providing transports of energy and water vapor, forcing the ocean, and also affecting mid-latitude circulation phenomena. Tropical cyclone tracks experience strong interannual variability and in addition, longer term trend-like changes in all ocean basins. Analysis of recent historical data reveal a poleward shift in the locations of tropical cyclone tracks in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres (Kossin et al. 2014, Nature, 509, 349-352). The physical consequences of these alterations are largely unconstrained. For example, the increasing encroachment of tropical cyclone activity into the extra-tropical environment presents a novel and still poorly understood paradigm for tropical-extratropical interactions. In this respect, the role that the atmospheric convective available potential energy (CAPE) plays in the dynamics of tropical cyclones is highly interesting. The two characteristic global-scale spatial patterns in CAPE are identified using EOF analysis. The first pattern shows an abundance of CAPE in the centre of the Pacific and corresponds to the El Nino Southern Oscillation. The second one is capturing positive CAPE anomalies in the oceanic tropics and negative anomalies over equatorial Africa. Associated with these buoyancy patterns, alterations in tropical cyclone activity occur in all basins forming both zonal and meridional patterns. Atmospheric buoyancy is the trigger for deep convection, and subsequently cyclone genesis. This is the mechanism of impact upon location at the start of cyclone tracks. It is found to have less impact upon where cyclones subsequently move, whether or not they undergo extratropical transition and when and where they experience lysis. It is shown that CAPE plays a critical role in the general circulation in the tropics which in turn is the larger steering context for embedded systems within the Walker and Hadley cells. So this lack of `latter life' impact posits an interesting start for further theoretical and physical consideration.

Transverse ageostrophic circulations associated with elevated mixed layers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keyser, D.; Carlson, T. N.

1984-01-01

The nature of the frontogenetically forced transverse ageostrophic circulations connected with elevated mixed layer structure is investigated as a first step toward diagnosing the complex vertical circulation patterns occurring in the vicinity of elevated mixed layers within a severe storm environment. The Sawyer-Eliassen ageostrophic circulation equation is reviewed and applied to the elevated mixed layer detected in the SESAME IV data set at 2100 GMT of May 9, 1979. The results of the ageostrophic circulation diagnosis are confirmed and refined by considering an analytic specification for the elevated mixed layer structure.

Understanding the effect of an excessive cold tongue bias on projecting the tropical Pacific SST warming pattern in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ying, Jun; Huang, Ping; Lian, Tao; Tan, Hongjian

2018-05-01

An excessive cold tongue is a common bias among current climate models, and considered an important source of bias in projections of tropical Pacific climate change under global warming. Specifically, the excessive cold tongue bias is closely related to the tropical Pacific SST warming (TPSW) pattern. In this study, we reveal that two processes are the critical mechanisms by which the excessive cold tongue bias influences the projection of the TPSW pattern, based on 32 models from phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection (CMIP5). On the one hand, by assuming that the shortwave (SW) radiation to SST feedback is linearly correlated to the cold tongue SST, the excessive cold tongue bias can induce an overly weak negative SW-SST feedback in the central Pacific, which can lead to a positive SST warming bias in the central to western Pacific (around 150°E-140°W). Moreover, the overly weak local atmospheric dynamics response to SST is a key process of the overly weak SW-SST feedback, compared with the cloud response to atmospheric dynamics and the SW radiation response to cloud. On the other hand, the overly strong ocean zonal overturning circulation associated with the excessive cold tongue bias results in an overestimation of the ocean dynamical thermostat effect, with enhanced ocean stratification under global warming, leading to a negative SST warming bias in the central and eastern Pacific (around 170°W-120°W). These two processes jointly form a positive SST warming bias in the western Pacific, contributing to a La Niña-like warming bias. Therefore, we suggest a more realistic climatological cold tongue SST is needed for a more reliable projection of the TPSW pattern.

Global atmospheric circulation statistics, 1000-1 mb

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Randel, William J.

1992-01-01

The atlas presents atmospheric general circulation statistics derived from twelve years (1979-90) of daily National Meteorological Center (NMC) operational geopotential height analyses; it is an update of a prior atlas using data over 1979-1986. These global analyses are available on pressure levels covering 1000-1 mb (approximately 0-50 km). The geopotential grids are a combined product of the Climate Analysis Center (which produces analyses over 70-1 mb) and operational NMC analyses (over 1000-100 mb). Balance horizontal winds and hydrostatic temperatures are derived from the geopotential fields.

Space Geodesy Monitoring Mass Transport in Global Geophysical Fluids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Benjamin F.

2004-01-01

Mass transports occurring in the atmosphere-hydrosphere-cryosphere-solid Earth-core system (the 'global geophysical fluids') are important geophysical phenomena. They occur on all temporal and spatial scales. Examples include air mass and ocean circulations, oceanic and solid tides, hydrological water and idsnow redistribution, mantle processes such as post-glacial rebound, earthquakes and tectonic motions, and core geodynamo activities. The temporal history and spatial pattern of such mass transport are often not amenable to direct observations. Space geodesy techniques, however, have proven to be an effective tool in monitorihg certain direct consequences of the mass transport, including Earth's rotation variations, gravitational field variations, and the geocenter motion. Considerable advances have been made in recent years in observing and understanding of these geodynamic effects. This paper will use several prominent examples to illustrate the triumphs in research over the past years under a 'Moore's law' in space geodesy. New space missions and projects promise to further advance our knowledge about the global mass transports. The latter contributes to our understanding of the geophysical processes that produce and regulate the mass transports, as well as of the solid Earth's response to such changes in terms of Earth's mechanical properties.

Modulation of Heavy Rainfall in the Middle East and North Africa by Madden-Julian Oscillation Using High Resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, L.; Stenchikov, G. L.; McCabe, M. F.; Bangalath, H. K.

2014-12-01

Recently, the modulation of subtropical rainfall by the dominant tropical intraseasonal signal of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), has been explored through the discussion of the MJO-convection-induced Kelvin and Rossby wave related teleconnection patterns. Our study focuses on characterizing the modulation of heavy rainfall in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region by the MJO, using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HIRAM) simulations (25-km; 1979-2012) and a combination of available atmospheric products from satellite, in-situ and reanalysis data. The observed Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) and the simulated SST from GFDL's global coupled carbon-climate Earth System Models (ESM2M) are employed in HIRAM to investigate the sensitivity of the simulated heavy rainfall and MJO to SST. The future trend of the extreme rainfalls and their links to the MJO response to climate change are examined using HIRAM simulations of 2012-2050 with the RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios to advance the possibility of characterization and forecasting of future extreme rainfall events in the MENA region.

Local persistence and global dissemination play a significant role in the circulation of influenza B viruses in Leyte Island, Philippines.

PubMed

Furuse, Yuki; Odagiri, Takashi; Tamaki, Raita; Kamigaki, Taro; Otomaru, Hirono; Opinion, Jamie; Santo, Arlene; Dolina-Lacaba, Donna; Daya, Edgard; Okamoto, Michiko; Saito-Obata, Mariko; Inobaya, Marianette; Tan, Alvin; Tallo, Veronica; Lupisan, Socorro; Suzuki, Akira; Oshitani, Hitoshi

2016-05-01

The local and global transmission dynamics of influenza B virus is not completely understood mainly because of limited epidemiological and sequence data for influenza B virus. Here we report epidemiological and molecular characteristics of influenza B viruses from 2010 to 2013 in Leyte Island, Philippines. Phylogenetic analyses showed global dissemination of the virus among both neighboring and distant areas. The analyses also suggest that southeast Asia is not a distributor of influenza B virus and can introduce the virus from other areas. Furthermore, we found evidence on the local persistence of the virus over years in the Philippines. Taken together, both local persistence and global dissemination play a significant role in the circulation of influenza B virus. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Endemic circulation of European bat lyssavirus type 1 in serotine bats, Spain.

PubMed

Vázquez-Morón, Sonia; Juste, Javier; Ibáñez, Carlos; Ruiz-Villamor, Eduardo; Avellón, Ana; Vera, Manuel; Echevarría, Juan E

2008-08-01

To determine the presence of European bat lyssavirus type 1 in southern Spain, we studied 19 colonies of serotine bats (Eptesicus isabellinus), its main reservoir, during 1998-2003. Viral genome and antibodies were detected in healthy bats, which suggests subclinical infection. The different temporal patterns of circulation found in each colony indicate independent endemic circulation.

Agricultural Drought Transition Periods In the United States Corn Belt Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schiraldi, Nicholas J.

Agricultural drought in the U.S. Corn Belt region (CBR) has tremendous global socioeconomic implications. Unfortunately, the weather and climate factors that contribute to transition events toward or away from such droughts, and how well those factors are predicted, are poorly understood. This dissertation focuses on the atmospheric circulation signals associated with agricultural drought transitions periods in the CBR that evolve over 20 and 60 days, and how well those circulation signals are predicted on seasonal to sub-seasonal time scales. Results show that amplification of an intraseasonal Rossby wave train across the Pacific Ocean into North America, which occurs coincident with intraseasonal tropical convection on its equatorward side, triggers these transition events, not shifts in the low frequency base state. This result is confirmed through composite analysis, trajectory analysis and a vertically integrated moisture budget. Trajectory analysis reveals similar source regions for air parcels associated with drought development and breakdown, but with a shift toward more parcels originating over the Gulf of Mexico during transitions away from drought. The primary result from the vertically integrated moisture budget demonstrates that advection and convergence of moisture on intraseasonal time scales dominates during these transitions. The primary conclusion drawn is that weather events are the primary driver of agricultural drought transitions occurring over 20 and 60 days. The seasonal to sub-seasonal hindcast dataset is used to investigate the prediction of the low frequency, intraseasonal and synoptic circulation patterns associated with 20 and 60-day drought transition periods. The forecast models assessed are the European Centre for Medium Range Prediction (ECMWF), National Center for Environment Prediction Climate Forecast System (NCEP) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). Results demonstrate that ECMWF and NCEP are not skillful in predicting the patterns associated with 20-day agricultural drought onset and decay, but have some skill during 60-day agricultural drought onset and decay events at lead F360-F480. BoM was not skillful in predicting the circulation patterns associated with either type of drought transition. Finally, a regression model is used to predict 30-day forward looking standardized precipitation anomalies in the CBR, which leverages lowpass and intraseasonal filtered geopotential height anomalies at 200 hPa as predictors. The statistical model is more skillful than climatology in predicting 1 to 30, through 27 to 57 day standardized precipitation anomalies during July, as measured by root mean square error. The regression model also is skillful in predicting the directional skew (above or below normal) of the forward looking standardized precipitation anomalies.

On the glacial and interglacial thermohaline circulation and the associated transports of heat and freshwater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballarotta, M.; Falahat, S.; Brodeau, L.; Döös, K.

2014-11-01

The thermohaline circulation (THC) and the oceanic heat and freshwater transports are essential for understanding the global climate system. Streamfunctions are widely used in oceanography to represent the THC and estimate the transport of heat and freshwater. In the present study, the regional and global changes of the THC, the transports of heat and freshwater and the timescale of the circulation between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ≈ 21 kyr ago) and the present-day climate are explored using an Ocean General Circulation Model and streamfunctions projected in various coordinate systems. We found that the LGM tropical circulation is about 10% stronger than under modern conditions due to stronger wind stress. Consequently, the maximum tropical transport of heat is about 20% larger during the LGM. In the North Atlantic basin, the large sea-ice extent during the LGM constrains the Gulf Stream to propagate in a more zonal direction, reducing the transport of heat towards high latitudes by almost 50% and reorganising the freshwater transport. The strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation depends strongly on the coordinate system. It varies between 9 and 16 Sv during the LGM, and between 12 to 19 Sv for the present day. Similar to paleo-proxy reconstructions, a large intrusion of saline Antarctic Bottom Water takes place into the Northern Hemisphere basins and squeezes most of the Conveyor Belt circulation into a shallower part of the ocean. These different haline regimes between the glacial and interglacial period are illustrated by the streamfunctions in latitude-salinity coordinates and thermohaline coordinates. From these diagnostics, we found that the LGM Conveyor Belt circulation is driven by an enhanced salinity contrast between the Atlantic and the Pacific basin. The LGM abyssal circulation lifts and makes the Conveyor Belt cell deviate from the abyssal region, resulting in a ventilated upper layer above a deep stagnant layer, and an Atlantic circulation more isolated from the Pacific. An estimate of the timescale of the circulation reveals a sluggish abyssal circulation during the LGM, and a Conveyor Belt circulation that is more vigorous due to the combination of a stronger wind stress and a shortened circulation route.

Biogeography of the Oceans: a Review of Development of Knowledge of Currents, Fronts and Regional Boundaries from Sailing Ships in the Sixteenth Century to Satellite Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Priede, Imants G.

2014-06-01

The development of knowledge of global biogeography of the oceans from sixteenthcentury European voyages of exploration to present-day use of satellite remote sensing is reviewed in three parts; the pre-satellite era (1513-1977), the satellite era leading to a first global synthesis (1978-1998), and more recent studies since 1998. The Gulf Stream was first identified as a strong open-ocean feature in 1513 and by the eighteenth century, regular transatlantic voyages by sailing ships had established the general patterns of winds and circulation, enabling optimisation of passage times. Differences in water temperature, water colour and species of animals were recognised as important cues for navigation. Systematic collection of information from ships' logs enabled Maury (The Physical Geography of the Sea Harper and Bros. New York 1855) to produce a chart of prevailing winds across the entire world's oceans, and by the early twentieth century the global surface ocean circulation that defines the major biogeographic regions was well-known. This information was further supplemented by data from large-scale plankton surveys. The launch of the Coastal Zone Color Scanner, specifically designed to study living marine resources on board the Nimbus 7 polar orbiting satellite in 1978, marked the advent of the satellite era. Over subsequent decades, correlation of satellite-derived sea surface temperature and chlorophyll data with in situ measurements enabled Longhurst (Ecological Geography of the Sea. Academic Press, New York 1998) to divide the global ocean into 51 ecological provinces with Polar, Westerly Wind, Trade Wind and Coastal Biomes clearly recognisable from earlier subdivisions of the oceans. Satellite imagery with semi-synoptic images of large areas of the oceans greatly aided definition of boundaries between provinces. However, ocean boundaries are dynamic, varying from season to season and year to year. More recent work has focused on the study of variability of currents, fronts and eddies, which are often the focus of high biological productivity. Direct tracking of animals using satellite-based systems has helped resolve the biological function of such features and indeed animals instrumented in this way have helped the study of such features in three dimensions, including depths beyond the reach of conventional satellite remote sensing. Patterns of surface productivity detected by satellite remote sensing are reflected in deep sea life on the sea floor at abyssal depths >3,000 m. Satellite remote sensing has played a major role in overcoming the problems of large spatial scales and variability in ocean dynamics and is now an essential tool for monitoring global change.

Effects of Small-Scale Bathymetric Roughness on the Global Internal Wave Field

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-30

Navy. Much of the interest stems from the suggestion by Munk and Wunsch (1998) that the strength of the meridional overturning circulation is controlled... meridional overturning circulation . Journal of Physical Oceanography 32, 3578-3595. St. Laurent, L.C., 1999. Diapycnal advection by double diffusion...waves generated by flows over the rough seafloor. On the time scales of internal waves, mesoscale eddies and the general circulation can be regarded as

High T3, Low T4 Serum Levels in Mct8 Deficiency Are Not Caused by Increased Hepatic Conversion through Type I Deiodinase

PubMed Central

Wirth, Eva K.; Rijntjes, Eddy; Meyer, Franziska; Köhrle, Josef; Schweizer, Ulrich

2015-01-01

Background The Allan-Herndon-Dudley syndrome is a severe psychomotor retardation accompanied by specific changes in circulating thyroid hormone levels (high T3, low T4). These are caused by mutations in the thyroid hormone transmembrane transport protein monocarboxylate transporter 8 (MCT8). Objective: To test the hypothesis that circulating low T4 and high T3 levels are caused by enhanced conversion of T4 via increased activity of hepatic type I deiodinase (Dio1). Methods We crossed mice deficient in Mct8 with mice lacking Dio1 activity in hepatocytes. Translation of the selenoenzyme Dio1 was abrogated by hepatocyte-specific inactivation of selenoprotein biosynthesis. Results Inactivation of Dio1 activity in the livers of global Mct8-deficient mice does not restore normal circulating thyroid hormone levels. Conclusions Our data suggest that although hepatic Dio1 activity is increased in Mct8-deficient mice, it does not cause the observed abnormal circulating thyroid hormone levels. Since global inactivation of Dio1 in Mct8-deficient mice does normalize circulating thyroid hormone levels, the underlying mechanism and relevant tissues involved remain to be elucidated. PMID:26601078

High T3, Low T4 Serum Levels in Mct8 Deficiency Are Not Caused by Increased Hepatic Conversion through Type I Deiodinase.

PubMed

Wirth, Eva K; Rijntjes, Eddy; Meyer, Franziska; Köhrle, Josef; Schweizer, Ulrich

2015-09-01

The Allan-Herndon-Dudley syndrome is a severe psychomotor retardation accompanied by specific changes in circulating thyroid hormone levels (high T3, low T4). These are caused by mutations in the thyroid hormone transmembrane transport protein monocarboxylate transporter 8 (MCT8). To test the hypothesis that circulating low T4 and high T3 levels are caused by enhanced conversion of T4 via increased activity of hepatic type I deiodinase (Dio1). We crossed mice deficient in Mct8 with mice lacking Dio1 activity in hepatocytes. Translation of the selenoenzyme Dio1 was abrogated by hepatocyte-specific inactivation of selenoprotein biosynthesis. Inactivation of Dio1 activity in the livers of global Mct8-deficient mice does not restore normal circulating thyroid hormone levels. Our data suggest that although hepatic Dio1 activity is increased in Mct8-deficient mice, it does not cause the observed abnormal circulating thyroid hormone levels. Since global inactivation of Dio1 in Mct8-deficient mice does normalize circulating thyroid hormone levels, the underlying mechanism and relevant tissues involved remain to be elucidated.

Meridional Circulation Dynamics from 3D Magnetohydrodynamic Global Simulations of Solar Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passos, Dário; Charbonneau, Paul; Miesch, Mark

2015-02-01

The form of solar meridional circulation is a very important ingredient for mean field flux transport dynamo models. However, a shroud of mystery still surrounds this large-scale flow, given that its measurement using current helioseismic techniques is challenging. In this work, we use results from three-dimensional global simulations of solar convection to infer the dynamical behavior of the established meridional circulation. We make a direct comparison between the meridional circulation that arises in these simulations and the latest observations. Based on our results, we argue that there should be an equatorward flow at the base of the convection zone at mid-latitudes, below the current maximum depth helioseismic measures can probe (0.75 {{R}⊙ }). We also provide physical arguments to justify this behavior. The simulations indicate that the meridional circulation undergoes substantial changes in morphology as the magnetic cycle unfolds. We close by discussing the importance of these dynamical changes for current methods of observation which involve long averaging periods of helioseismic data. Also noteworthy is the fact that these topological changes indicate a rich interaction between magnetic fields and plasma flows, which challenges the ubiquitous kinematic approach used in the vast majority of mean field dynamo simulations.

Regional climates in the GISS general circulation model: Surface air temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hewitson, Bruce

1994-01-01

One of the more viable research techniques into global climate change for the purpose of understanding the consequent environmental impacts is based on the use of general circulation models (GCMs). However, GCMs are currently unable to reliably predict the regional climate change resulting from global warming, and it is at the regional scale that predictions are required for understanding human and environmental responses. Regional climates in the extratropics are in large part governed by the synoptic-scale circulation and the feasibility of using this interscale relationship is explored to provide a way of moving to grid cell and sub-grid cell scales in the model. The relationships between the daily circulation systems and surface air temperature for points across the continental United States are first developed in a quantitative form using a multivariate index based on principal components analysis (PCA) of the surface circulation. These relationships are then validated by predicting daily temperature using observed circulation and comparing the predicted values with the observed temperatures. The relationships predict surface temperature accurately over the major portion of the country in winter, and for half the country in summer. These relationships are then applied to the surface synoptic circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM control run, and a set of surface grid cell temperatures are generated. These temperatures, based on the larger-scale validated circulation, may now be used with greater confidence at the regional scale. The generated temperatures are compared to those of the model and show that the model has regional errors of up to 10 C in individual grid cells.

Interannual variability of March snow mass over Northern Eurasia and its relation to the concurrent and preceding surface air temperature, precipitation and atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Kunhui

2018-06-01

The interannual variability of March snow water equivalent (SWE) in Northern Eurasia and its influencing factors are studied. The surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation are the dominant factors for the snow accumulation in northern Europe and the remaining region, respectively. The strongest contribution of SAT to snow accumulation is mainly found in those months with moderate mean SAT. The strongest contribution of precipitation is not collocated with the climatological maxima in precipitation. The leading mode of March SWE variability is obtained and characterized by a spatial dipole. Anomalies in atmospheric water vapor divergence, storm activity and the associated atmospheric circulation can explain many of the associated precipitation and SAT features. Anomalies in autumn Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) over the Barents Sea and Kara Sea (B/K Sea) and a dipole pattern of November snow cover (SC) in Eurasia are also observed. The atmospheric circulation anomalies that resemble a negative phase of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation (AO) are strongly projected onto the wintertime atmospheric circulation. Both observations and model experiment support that the autumn B/K Sea SIC has some impacts on the autumn and AO/NAO-like wintertime atmospheric circulation patterns. The dipole pattern of November Eurasian SC seems to be strongly forced by the autumn B/K Sea SIC and its feedback to the atmospheric circulation is important. Therefore, the impacts of autumn B/K Sea SIC on the autumn/wintertime atmospheric circulation and thus the March SWE variability may be modulated by both constructive and destructive interference of autumn Eurasian SC.

Global avian influenza surveillance in wild birds: A strategy to capture viral diversity

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Avian influenza (AI) is a global threat to food animal production and distribution systems as well as human health. However, a sustained, comprehensive and coordinated global effort to monitor the continually changing genetic diversity of AI viruses (AIVs) circulating in nature is lacking. Two strai...

Electrokinetically driven microfluidic mixing with patchwise surface heterogeneity and AC applied electric field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Win-Jet; Yue, Cheng-Feng

2004-12-01

This paper investigates two-dimensional, time-dependent electroosmotic flows driven by an AC electric field via patchwise surface heterogeneities distributed along the microchannel walls. The time-dependent flow fields through the microchannel are simulated for various patchwise heterogeneous surface patterns using the backwards-Euler time stepping numerical method. Different heterogeneous surface patterns are found to create significantly different electrokinetic transport phenomena. It is shown that the presence of oppositely charged surface heterogeneities on the microchannel walls results in the formation of localized flow circulations within the bulk flow. These circulation regions grow and decay periodically in accordance with the applied periodic AC electric field intensity. The circulations provide an effective means of enhancing species mixing in the microchannel. A suitable design of the patchwise heterogeneous surface pattern permits the mixing channel length and the retention time required to attain a homogeneous solution to be reduced significantly.

Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns Associated with Extreme Precipitation in the US Northeast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agel, L. A.; Barlow, M. A.

2016-12-01

Patterns of daily large-scale circulation associated with Northeast US extreme precipitation are identified using both k-means clustering (KMC) and Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) applied to tropopause height. Tropopause height provides a compact representation of large-scale circulation patterns, as it is linked to mid-level circulation, low-level thermal contrasts and low-level diabatic heating. Extreme precipitation is defined as the top 1% of daily wet-day observations at 35 Northeast stations, 1979-2008. KMC is applied on extreme precipitation days only, while the SOM algorithm is applied to all days in order to place the extreme results into a larger context. Six tropopause patterns are identified on extreme days: a summertime tropopause ridge, a summertime shallow trough/ridge, a summertime shallow eastern US trough, a deeper wintertime eastern US trough, and two versions of a deep cold-weather trough located across the east-central US. Thirty SOM patterns for all days are identified. Results for all days show that 6 SOM patterns account for almost half of the extreme days, although extreme precipitation occurs in all SOM patterns. The same SOM patterns associated with extreme precipitation also routinely produce non-extreme precipitation; however, on extreme precipitation days the troughs, on average, are deeper and the downstream ridges more pronounced. Analysis of other fields associated with the large-scale patterns show various degrees of anomalously strong upward motion during, and moisture transport preceding, extreme precipitation events.

On the role of inter-basin surface salinity contrasts in global ocean circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seidov, D.; Haupt, B. J.

2002-08-01

The role of sea surface salinity (SSS) contrasts in maintaining vigorous global ocean thermohaline circulation (TOC) is revisited. Relative importance of different generalizations of sea surface conditions in climate studies is explored. Ocean-wide inter-basin SSS contrasts serve as the major controlling element in global TOC. These contrasts are shown to be at least as important as high-latitudinal freshwater impacts. It is also shown that intra-basin longitudinal distribution of sea surface salinity, as well as intra- and inter-basin longitudinal distribution of sea surface temperature, is not crucial to conveyor functionality if only inter-basin contrasts in sea surface salinity are retained. This is especially important for paleoclimate and future climate simulations.

Changing surface water conditions for the last 500 ka in the Southeast Atlantic:Tracking Agulhas leakage using UK37' and δD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrick, Benjamin; McClymont, Erin; van der Meer, Marcel; Marret, Fabienne

2015-04-01

The Southeast Atlantic Ocean is an important component of global ocean circulation, as it includes heat and salt transfer into the Atlantic through Agulhas Leakage. Here, we reconstruct sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea surface salinity from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1087 in the Southeast Atlantic to investigate surface ocean circulation patterns during the late Pleistocene (0-500 ka). The alkenone-derived U37K'index and assemblages of dinoflagellate cysts are used to reconstruct SSTs. The hydrogen isotope composition of the alkenones (δDalkenone) is used to reconstruct changes in sea-surface salinity. The greatest amplitude of SST warming precedes decreases in benthic δ18O and therefore occurs early in the transition from glacials to interglacials. The timing of the early warming is consistent with previously published foraminifera reconstructions from the same site (Caley et al., 2012). However, δDalkenone decreases at the start of interglacials, suggesting that sea surface salinity increased earlier than the deglacial warmings, and indicating that the pattern of Agulhas leakage is more complex than suggested by SST proxies alone. Furthermore, the δDalkenonevalues indicate a strong salinity increases occurred before both MIS 11 and MIS 1, which are both periods where there is evidence of connection between increased Agulhas Leakage and a stronger Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Finally, the ODP site 1087 record shows an overall trend of increasing SSTs and δDalkenone towards the present day, suggesting that Agulhas leakage has strengthened since 500 ka, which may have impacted the intensity of the AMOC. Caley, T., Giraudeau, J., Malaize, B., Rossignol, L., Pierre, C., 2012. Agulhas leakage as a key process in the modes of Quaternary climate changes. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 109, 6835-6839. doi:10.1073/pnas.1115545109

Role of Marine Gateways in the Paleoceanography of the Miocene Mediterranean Sea; A Model Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de la Vara, A.; Meijer, P. T.

2015-12-01

During the Miocene, due to the convergence of the African plate and the Eurasian plate, the Mediterranean region was subject to profound paleogeographic changes. The evolving coastline and bathymetry of the Mediterranean Sea and, in particular, the opening and closure of the marine connections between the Mediterranean and the outside oceans, triggered important changes in Mediterranean circulation and, indirectly, also affected the global-scale ocean circulation. Until about the Middle Miocene the proto-Mediterranean Sea was open to the Indo-Pacific Ocean through the so-called Indian Gateway. Although the exact age of closure of this gateway is still debated, it is accepted that it substantially affected the paleoceanography of the Mediterranean Sea. Later in time, during the Late Miocene, the Mediterranean was only connected to the Atlantic Ocean but by two marine corridors: the Betic and Rifian corridors. Closure of these narrow passages resulted in the Messinian Salinity Crisis, during which a sequence of evaporites was deposited throughout the Mediterranean basin. In this work we use a regional-scale ocean general circulation model (the Princeton Ocean Model) to gain insight into the role of the evolving gateways. The analysis focuses on large-scale (overturning) circulation, patterns of exchange in the gateways and properties of the Mediterranean water. By comparing our model results to geological data we are able to propose new scenarios or rule out previously proposed ones, and determine the conditions evidenced by the geological observations. More specifically we investigate two different topics: (i) the effects of shoaling and closure of the Indian Gateway and (ii) the functioning of the Late Miocene double gateway to the Atlantic.

Buoyancy forcing and the MOC: insights from experiments, simulations and global models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, B. L.; Passaggia, P. Y.; Zemskova, V.

2017-12-01

The driving forces behind the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) have been widely debated, with wind-driven upwelling, surface buoyancy fluxes due to heating/cooling/freshwater input, and vertical diffusion due to turbulent mixing all thought to play significant roles. To explore the specific role of buoyancy forcing we present results from experiments and simulations of Horizontal Convection (HC), where a circulation is driven by differential buoyancy forcing applied along a horizontal surface. We interpret these results using energy budgets based on the local Available Potential Energy framework introduced in [Scotti and White, J. Fluid Mech., 2014]. We first describe HC experiments driven by the diffusion of salt in water across membranes localized at the surface, at Schmidt numbers {Sc}≈ 610 and Rayleigh numbers in the range 1012 < Ra=Δ b L3/(ν κ ) < 1017, where ν is the kinematic viscosity of water, κ is the diffusion coefficient of salt, L=[.5,2,5]m is the length of the different tanks and Δ b=g(ρ salt}-ρ {fresh}/ρ_{fresh is the reduced gravity difference. We show that the scaling follows a Nu ˜ Ra1/4 type scaling recently theorized by Shishkina et; al. (2016). We then present numerical results for rotating horizontal convection with a zonally re-entrant channel to represent the Southern Ocean branch of the MOC. While the zonal wind stress profile is important to the spatial pattern of the circulation, perhaps surprisingly, the energy budget shows only a weak dependence on the magnitude of the wind input, suggesting that surface APE generation by buoyancy forcing is dominant in driving the overturning circulation.

Application of Satellite Altimetry to Ocean Circulation Studies: 1987-1994

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, L. -L.; Cheney, R. E.

1994-01-01

Altimetric measurement of the height of the sea surface from space provides global observation of the world's oceans. The last eight years have witnessed a rapid growth in the use of altimetry data from the study of the ocean circulations, thanks to the multiyear data from the Geosat Mission.

Circulating Discourses of Minority Education: The Linguistic Construction of Modernity in Globalizing Taiwan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lin, Shumin

2015-01-01

Drawing on 15 months of fieldwork in Taiwan, this article analyzes circulating discourses and practices across heterogeneous scales that conflate Taiwanese minority-language elders with foreign brides as nonmodern and childlike. The assiduous production and reproduction of historically and geographically displaced linguistic Others is part and…

The effect of global-scale divergent circulation on the atmospheric water vapor transport and maintenance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Tsing-Chang

1988-01-01

The detection, distribution, and dynamics of atmospheric water on Earth was examined. How the high levels of water vapor and precipitation that occur over the tropics during the monsoon season result from the development of a strong divergent atmospheric circulation is discussed.

Miocene oceanographic changes of the western equatorial Atlantic (Ceara Rise) based on calcareous dinoflagellate cysts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinrich, S.; Zonneveld, K. A. F.; Willems, H.

2010-09-01

The middle- and upper Miocene represent a time-interval of major changes in palaeoceanography that favoured the cooling of the climate and culminated in the Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (NHG). The basis for the development of the modern deepwater circulation pattern, e.g. thermohaline circulation, was hereby established. Tectonic events played a key role in the progressing Miocene oceanography, such as the narrowing of the Panama gateway (e.g. Duque-Caro 1990) and the possible linked changes in North Atlantic Deep Water formation (Lear et al. 2003). However, the complex interaction between the closing of the Panama Gateway, the development of NADW, and thus the oceanographic progression towards our present day circulation is far from being fully understood. We want to improve the understanding of these processes by establishing a detailed palaeoceanographic reconstruction of the western equatorial Atlantic Ocean on the basis of calcareous dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) associations. Within this study, we investigated sediment samples from ODP Site 926A by defining the calcareous dinocyst assemblage. Site 926A is located at the southwestern flank of the Ceara Rise, an area of highest sensitivity to global deep water circulation changes. At about 12 Ma, when NADW production increased (e.g. Wright et al. 1992), we see a distinct increase in the absolute abundances of the calcareous dinocysts. This might be related to enhanced productivity or to better carbonate preservation. At 11.3 Ma, Leonella granifera, a species known to be strongly related to terrestrial input occurs. This could be a signal for the initiation of the Amazon River as a transcontinental river with the development of the Amazon fan (11.8 - 11.3 Ma; Figueiredo et al. 2009) in relation to Andean tectonism. References: Duque-Caro, H. (1990): Neogene stratigraphy, paleoceanography and palebiology in Northwest South America and the evolution of the Panama Seaway. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 77, 203-234. Figueiredo, J., Hoorn, C., van der Veen, P., Soares, E. (2009): Late Miocene onset of the Amazon River and the Amazon deep-sea fan: Evidence from the Foz do Amazonas Basin. Geology; v. 37, no. 7; p. 619-622. Lear, C.H., Rosenthal, Y., Wright, J.D. (2003): The closing of a seaway: ocean water masses and global climate change. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 210, 425-436. Wright, J.D., Miller, K.G., Fairbanks, R.G. (1992): Early and middle Miocene stable isotopes: implications for deepwater circulation and climate. Paloceanography 7(3): 357-398.

Snowfall in the Northwest Iberian Peninsula: Synoptic Circulation Patterns and Their Influence on Snow Day Trends

PubMed Central

Merino, Andrés; Fernández, Sergio; Hermida, Lucía; López, Laura; Sánchez, José Luis; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Gascón, Estíbaliz

2014-01-01

In recent decades, a decrease in snowfall attributed to the effects of global warming (among other causes) has become evident. However, it is reasonable to investigate meteorological causes for such decrease, by analyzing changes in synoptic scale patterns. On the Iberian Peninsula, the Castilla y León region in the northwest consists of a central plateau surrounded by mountain ranges. This creates snowfalls that are considered both an important water resource and a transportation risk. In this work, we develop a classification of synoptic situations that produced important snowfalls at observation stations in the major cities of Castilla y León from 1960 to 2011. We used principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster techniques to define four synoptic patterns conducive to snowfall in the region. Once we confirmed homogeneity of the series and serial correlation of the snowfallday records at the stations from 1960 to 2011, we carried out a Mann-Kendall test. The results show a negative trend at most stations, so there are a decreased number of snowfall days. Finally, variations in these meteorological variables were related to changes in the frequencies of snow events belonging to each synoptic pattern favorable for snowfall production at the observatory locations. PMID:25152912

A Multiyear Dataset of SSM/I-Derived Global Ocean Surface Turbulent Fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Shu-Hsien; Shie, Chung-Lin; Atlas, Robert M.; Ardizzone, Joe; Nelkin, Eric; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The surface turbulent fluxes of momentum, latent heat, and sensible heat over global oceans are essential to weather, climate and ocean problems. Evaporation is a key component of the hydrological cycle and the surface heat budget, while the wind stress is the major forcing for driving the oceanic circulation. The global air-sea fluxes of momentum, latent and sensible heat, radiation, and freshwater (precipitation-evaporation) are the forcing for driving oceanic circulation and, hence, are essential for understanding the general circulation of global oceans. The global air-sea fluxes are required for driving ocean models and validating coupled ocean-atmosphere global models. We have produced a 7.5-year (July 1987-December 1994) dataset of daily surface turbulent fluxes over the global oceans from the Special Sensor microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data. Daily turbulent fluxes were derived from daily data of SSM/I surface winds and specific humidity, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) sea surface temperatures, and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) air-sea temperature differences, using a stability-dependent bulk scheme. The retrieved instantaneous surface air humidity (with a 25-km resolution) validated well with that of the collocated radiosonde observations over the global oceans. Furthermore, the retrieved daily wind stresses and latent heat fluxes were found to agree well with that of the in situ measurements (IMET buoy, RV Moana Wave, and RV Wecoma) in the western Pacific warm pool during the TOGA COARE intensive observing period (November 1992-February 1993). The global distributions of 1988-94 seasonal-mean turbulent fluxes will be presented. In addition, the global distributions of 1990-93 annual-means turbulent fluxes and input variables will be compared with those of UWM/COADS covering the same period. The latter is based on the COADS (comprehensive ocean-atmosphere data set) and is recognized to be one of the best climatological analyses of fluxes derived from ship observations.

Tracer transport by the diabatic circulation deduced from satellite observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Solomon, S.; Kiehl, J. T.; Garcia, R. R.; Grose, W.

1986-01-01

Nimbus-7 sensor data were used to track the diabatic circulation in the stratosphere to study the advective transport of CH4 and N2O as tracer species. Advective transport by the mean circulation was found to be a function of the temperature field and associated deviations from radiative equilibrium. A photochemical model was applied to account for the disappearance of the tracer species from the stratosphere. Comparisons between the SAMS data and modeling on the basis of the chemical loss rates of the tracers and the LIMS circulation data showed that the model predictions underestimated the resident abundances, although the global distributions and circulations exhibited a good match.

The Sinuosity of Atmospheric Circulation over North America and its Relationship to Arctic Climate Change and Extreme Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vavrus, S. J.; Wang, F.; Martin, J. E.; Francis, J. A.

2015-12-01

Recent research has suggested a relationship between mid-latitude weather and Arctic amplification (AA) of global climate change via a slower and wavier extratropical circulation inducing more extreme events. To test this hypothesis and to quantify the waviness of the extratropical flow, we apply a novel application of the geomorphological concept of sinuosity (SIN) over greater North America. SIN is defined as the ratio of the curvilinear length of a geopotential height contour to the perimeter of its equivalent latitude, where the contour and the equivalent latitude enclose the same area. We use 500 hPa daily heights from reanalysis and model simulations to calculate past and future SIN. The circulation exhibits a distinct annual cycle of maximum SIN (waviness) in summer and a minimum in winter, inversely related to the annual cycle of zonal wind speed. Positive trends in SIN have emerged in recent decades during winter and summer at several latitude bands, generally collocated with negative trends in zonal wind speeds. High values of SIN coincide with many prominent extreme-weather events, including Superstorm Sandy. RCP8.5 simulations (2006-2100) project a dipole pattern of zonal wind changes that varies seasonally. In winter, AA causes inflated heights over the Arctic relative to mid-latitudes and an associated weakening (strengthening) of the westerlies north (south) of 40N. The AA signal in summer is strongest over upper-latitude land, promoting localized atmospheric ridging aloft with lighter westerlies to the south and stronger zonal winds to the north. The changes in wind speeds in both seasons are inversely correlated with SIN, indicating a wavier circulation where the flow weakens. In summer the lighter winds over much of the U. S. resemble circulation anomalies observed during extreme summer heat and drought. Such changes may be linked to enhanced heating of upper-latitude land surfaces caused by earlier snow melt during spring-summer.

Wind, Circulation, and Topographic Effects on Alongshore Phytoplankton Variability in the California Current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiechter, Jerome; Edwards, Christopher A.; Moore, Andrew M.

2018-04-01

A physical-biogeochemical model is used to produce a retrospective analysis at 3-km resolution of alongshore phytoplankton variability in the California Current during 1988-2010. The simulation benefits from downscaling a regional circulation reanalysis, which provides improved physical ocean state estimates in the high-resolution domain. The emerging pattern is one of local upwelling intensification in response to increased alongshore wind stress in the lee of capes, modulated by alongshore meanders in the geostrophic circulation. While stronger upwelling occurs near most major topographic features, substantial increases in phytoplankton biomass only ensue where local circulation patterns are conducive to on-shelf retention of upwelled nutrients. Locations of peak nutrient delivery and chlorophyll accumulation also exhibit interannual variability and trends noticeably larger than the surrounding shelf regions, thereby suggesting that long-term planktonic ecosystem response in the California Current exhibits a significant local scale (O(100 km)) alongshore component.

Understanding the Central Equatorial African long-term drought using AMIP-type simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hua, Wenjian; Zhou, Liming; Chen, Haishan; Nicholson, Sharon E.; Jiang, Yan; Raghavendra, Ajay

2018-02-01

Previous studies show that Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variations may help to explain the observed long-term drought during April-May-June (AMJ) since the 1990s over Central equatorial Africa (CEA). However, the underlying physical mechanisms for this drought are still not clear due to observation limitations. Here we use the AMIP-type simulations with 24 ensemble members forced by observed SSTs from the ECHAM4.5 model to explore the likely physical processes that determine the rainfall variations over CEA. We not only examine the ensemble mean (EM), but also compare the "good" and "poor" ensemble members to understand the intra-ensemble variability. In general, EM and the "good" ensemble member can simulate the drought and associated reduced vertical velocity and anomalous anti-cyclonic circulation in the lower troposphere. However, the "poor" ensemble members cannot simulate the drought and associated circulation patterns. These contrasts indicate that the drought is tightly associated with the tropical Walker circulation and atmospheric teleconnection patterns. If the observational circulation patterns cannot be reproduced, the CEA drought will not be captured. Despite the large intra-ensemble spread, the model simulations indicate an essential role of SST forcing in causing the drought. These results suggest that the long-term drought may result from tropical Indo-Pacific SST variations associated with the enhanced and westward extended tropical Walker circulation.

Regional Climate Simulation and Data Assimilation with Variable-Resolution GCMs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.

2002-01-01

Variable resolution GCMs using a global stretched grid (SG) with enhanced regional resolution over one or multiple areas of interest represents a viable new approach to regional climateklimate change and data assimilation studies and applications. The multiple areas of interest, at least one within each global quadrant, include the major global mountains and major global monsoonal circulations over North America, South America, India-China, and Australia. They also can include the polar domains, and the European and African regions. The SG-approach provides an efficient regional downscaling to mesoscales, and it is an ideal tool for representing consistent interactions of globaYlarge- and regionallmeso- scales while preserving the high quality of global circulation. Basically, the SG-GCM simulations are no different from those of the traditional uniform-grid GCM simulations besides using a variable-resolution grid. Several existing SG-GCMs developed by major centers and groups are briefly described. The major discussion is based on the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) SG-GCM regional climate simulations.

Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming

PubMed Central

Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

2016-01-01

Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves. PMID:26951654

Chapman Conference on the Hydrologic Aspects of Global Climate Change, Lake Chelan, WA, June 12-14, 1990, Selected Papers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lettenmaier, Dennis P. (Editor); Rind, D. (Editor)

1992-01-01

The present conference on the hydrological aspects of global climate change discusses land-surface schemes for future climate models, modeling of the land-surface boundary in climate models as a composite of independent vegetation, a land-surface hydrology parameterizaton with subgrid variability for general circulation models, and conceptual aspects of a statistical-dynamical approach to represent landscape subgrid-scale heterogeneities in atmospheric models. Attention is given to the impact of global warming on river runoff, the influence of atmospheric moisture transport on the fresh water balance of the Atlantic drainage basin, a comparison of observations and model simulations of tropospheric water vapor, and the use of weather types to disaggregate the prediction of general circulation models. Topics addressed include the potential response of an Arctic watershed during a period of global warming and the sensitivity of groundwater recharge estimates to climate variability and change.

Analysis of the present and future winter Pacific-North American teleconnection in the ECHAM5 global and RegCM3 regional climate models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allan, Andrea M.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Alder, Jay R.

2014-01-01

We use the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NCEP) and the MPI/ECHAM5 general circulation model to drive the RegCM3 regional climate model to assess the ability of the models to reproduce the spatiotemporal aspects of the Pacific-North American teleconnection (PNA) pattern. Composite anomalies of the NCEP-driven RegCM3 simulations for 1982–2000 indicate that the regional model is capable of accurately simulating the key features (500-hPa heights, surface temperature, and precipitation) of the positive and negative phases of the PNA with little loss of information in the downscaling process. The basic structure of the PNA is captured in both the ECHAM5 global and ECHAM5-driven RegCM3 simulations. The 1950–2000 ECHAM5 simulation displays similar temporal and spatial variability in the PNA index as that of NCEP; however, the magnitudes of the positive and negative phases are weaker than those of NCEP. The RegCM3 simulations clearly differentiate the climatology and associated anomalies of snow water equivalent and soil moisture of the positive and negative PNA phases. In the RegCM3 simulations of the future (2050–2100), changes in the location and extent of the Aleutian low and the continental high over North America alter the dominant flow patterns associated with positive and negative PNA modes. The future projections display a shift in the patterns of the relationship between the PNA and surface climate variables, which suggest the potential for changes in the PNA-related surface hydrology of North America.

Space-time epidemiology and effect of meteorological parameters on influenza-like illness in Phitsanulok, a northern province in Thailand.

PubMed

Nimbalkar, Prakash Madhav; Tripathi, Nitin Kumar

2016-11-21

Influenza-like illness (ILI) is an acute respiratory disease that remains a public health concern for its ability to circulate globally affecting any age group and gender causing serious illness with mortality risk. Comprehensive assessment of the spatio-temporal dynamics of ILI is a prerequisite for effective risk assessment and application of control measures. Though meteorological parameters, such as rainfall, average relative humidity and temperature, influence ILI and represent crucial information for control of this disease, the relation between the disease and these variables is not clearly understood in tropical climates. The aim of this study was to analyse the epidemiology of ILI cases using integrated methods (space-time analysis, spatial autocorrelation and other correlation statistics). After 2009s H1N1 influenza pandemic, Phitsanulok Province in northern Thailand was strongly affected by ILI for many years. This study is based on ILI cases in villages in this province from 2005 to 2012. We used highly precise weekly incidence records covering eight years, which allowed accurate estimation of the ILI outbreak. Comprehensive methodology was developed to analyse the global and local patterns of the spread of the disease. Significant space-time clusters were detected over the study region during eight different periods. ILI cases showed seasonal clustered patterns with a peak in 2010 (P>0.05-9.999 iterations). Local indicators of spatial association identified hotspots for each year. Statistically, the weather pattern showed a clear influence on ILI cases and it strongly correlated with humidity at a lag of 1 month, while temperature had a weaker correlation.

Patterns of Care and Disparities in the Treatment of Early Breast Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-30

renal impairment in heart failure : mortality in blacks versus whites. Circulation. 2005 Mar 15;111(10):1270-7. 19. Smith BD, Smith GL, Haffty BG...Lichtman JH, Krumholz HM. Functional status and quality of life in heart failure patients with renal impairment. Circulation 106(16):e76, 2002...Theses 1. Ph.D.: Smith GL. Renal Impairment in Heart Failure : Prevalence, Prognosis, and Detection. 2007. 41 2. M.D.: Smith GL. Patterns of

Circulating nucleic acids as possible damage-associated molecular patterns in different stages of renal failure.

PubMed

Kocić, Gordana; Radenkovic, Sonja; Cvetkovic, Tatjana; Cencic, Avrelija; Carluccio, Francesco; Musovic, Dijana; Nikolić, Goran; Jevtović-Stoimenov, Tatjana; Sokolović, Dusan; Milojkovic, Boban; Basic, Jelena; Veljkovic, Andrej; Stojanović, Svetlana

2010-05-01

Chronic renal failure (CRF) is a condition associated with the risk of cardiovascular complications. Systemic inflammatory response, initiated by the pathogen-associated molecular-pattern (PAMP) molecules, exerts many similarities with the damage-associated molecular-pattern (DAMP) molecule-induced systemic response. Up to now, a number of DAMP molecules were identified. We hypothesized that the available circulating nucleic acids, acting as DAMPs, may modulate immunoinflammatory reaction in CRF. Patients with the different stages of chronic kidney disease, kidney transplantation, and patients on dialysis were included in the study. Obtained results about higher concentration of circulating ribonucleic acid (RNA), according to the stages of kidney diseases, may contribute to the hypothesis that damaged kidney tissue releases nucleic acids. Circulating RNAs expressed maximal absorbance peak at 270 nm in spectrophotometric scan analysis, which corresponded to polyC, compared to different standard samples. During in vitro conditions, by using the culture of human residential macrophages, circulating RNA isolated from patients with IV-V-stage renal diseases, patients on hemodialysis, and patients who underwent renal transplantation were able to significantly change signal transduction proteins related to inflammation and antiviral response. They significantly increased the intracellular concentration of active nuclear transcription factor nuclear factor kappa B (NF-kappaB), interferon regulatory factors (IRF)-3, and IRF-7 and significantly decreased melanoma differentiation-associated protein-5 (MDA-5) and p38. In this way, it seems that circulating RNA, acting as DAMP, may contribute to the mechanisms of additional inflammatory reaction, possible immune destruction, and decreased antiviral response, related to complications in kidney diseases.

Changes in Diversification Patterns and Signatures of Selection during the Evolution of Murinae-Associated Hantaviruses

PubMed Central

Castel, Guillaume; Razzauti, Maria; Jousselin, Emmanuelle; Kergoat, Gael J.; Cosson, Jean-François

2014-01-01

In the last 50 years, hantaviruses have significantly affected public health worldwide, but the exact extent of the distribution of hantavirus diseases, species and lineages and the risk of their emergence into new geographic areas are still poorly known. In particular, the determinants of molecular evolution of hantaviruses circulating in different geographical areas or different host species are poorly documented. Yet, this understanding is essential for the establishment of more accurate scenarios of hantavirus emergence under different climatic and environmental constraints. In this study, we focused on Murinae-associated hantaviruses (mainly Seoul Dobrava and Hantaan virus) using sequences available in GenBank and conducted several complementary phylogenetic inferences. We sought for signatures of selection and changes in patterns and rates of diversification in order to characterize hantaviruses’ molecular evolution at different geographical scales (global and local). We then investigated whether these events were localized in particular geographic areas. Our phylogenetic analyses supported the assumption that RNA virus molecular variations were under strong evolutionary constraints and revealed changes in patterns of diversification during the evolutionary history of hantaviruses. These analyses provide new knowledge on the molecular evolution of hantaviruses at different scales of time and space. PMID:24618811

Dynamics of the Venus upper atmosphere: Outstanding problems and new constraints expected from Venus Express

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bougher, S. W.; Rafkin, S.; Drossart, P.

2006-11-01

A consistent picture of the dynamics of the Venus upper atmosphere from ˜90 to 200 km has begun to emerge [e.g., Bougher, S.W., Alexander, M.J., Mayr, H.G., 1997. Upper Atmosphere Dynamics: Global Circulation and Gravity Waves. Venus II, CH. 2.4. University of Arizona Press, Tucson, pp. 259-292; Lellouch, E., Clancy, T., Crisp, D., Kliore, A., Titov, D., Bougher, S.W., 1997. Monitoring of Mesospheric Structure and Dynamics. Venus II, CH. 3.1. University of Arizona Press, Tucson, pp. 295-324]. The large-scale circulation of the Venus upper atmosphere (upper mesosphere and thermosphere) can be decomposed into two distinct flow patterns: (1) a relatively stable subsolar-to-antisolar (SS-AS) circulation cell driven by solar heating, and (2) a highly variable retrograde superrotating zonal (RSZ) flow. Wave-like perturbations have also been observed. However, the processes responsible for maintaining (and driving variations in) these SS-AS and RSZ winds are not well understood. Variations in winds are thought to result from gravity wave breaking and subsequent momentum and energy deposition in the upper atmosphere [Alexander, M.J., 1992. A mechanism for the Venus thermospheric superrotation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 19, 2207-2210; Zhang, S., Bougher, S.W., Alexander, M.J., 1996. The impact of gravity waves on the Venus thermosphere and O2 IR nightglow. J. Geophys. Res. 101, 23195-23205]. However, existing data sets are limited in their spatial and temporal coverage, thereby restricting our understanding of these changing circulation patterns. One of the major goals of the Venus Express (VEX) mission is focused upon increasing our understanding of the circulation and dynamical processes of the Venus atmosphere up to the exobase [Titov, D.V., Lellouch, E., Taylor, F.W., 2001. Venus Express: Response to ESA's call for ideas for the re-use of the Mars Express platform. Proposal to European Space Agency, 1-74]. Several VEX instruments are slated to obtain remote measurements (2006-2008) that will complement those obtained earlier by the Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) between 1978 and 1992. These VEX measurements will provide a more comprehensive investigation of the Venus upper atmosphere (90-200 km) structure and dynamics over another period in the solar cycle and for variable lower atmosphere conditions. An expanded climatology of Venus upper atmosphere structure and wind components will be developed. In addition, gravity wave parameters above the cloud tops will be measured (or inferred), and used to constrain gravity wave breaking models. In this manner, the gravity wave breaking mechanism (thought to regulate highly variable RSZ winds) can be tested using Venus general circulation models (GCMs).

Atmospheric Circulation Patterns over East Asia and Their Connection with Summer Precipitation and Surface Air Temperature in Eastern China during 1961-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shuping; Hou, Wei; Feng, Guolin

2018-04-01

Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and Chinese observational data during 1961-2013, atmospheric circulation patterns over East Asia in summer and their connection with precipitation and surface air temperature in eastern China as well as associated external forcing are investigated. Three patterns of the atmospheric circulation are identified, all with quasi-barotropic structures: (1) the East Asia/Pacific (EAP) pattern, (2) the Baikal Lake/Okhotsk Sea (BLOS) pattern, and (3) the eastern China/northern Okhotsk Sea (ECNOS) pattern. The positive EAP pattern significantly increases precipitation over the Yangtze River valley and favors cooling north of the Yangtze River and warming south of the Yangtze River in summer. The warm sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean suppress convection over the northwestern subtropical Pacific through the Ekman divergence induced by a Kelvin wave and excite the EAP pattern. The positive BLOS pattern is associated with below-average precipitation south of the Yangtze River and robust cooling over northeastern China. This pattern is triggered by anomalous spring sea ice concentration in the northern Barents Sea. The anomalous sea ice concentration contributes to a Rossby wave activity flux originating from the Greenland Sea, which propagates eastward to North Pacific. The positive ECNOS pattern leads to below-average precipitation and significant warming over northeastern China in summer. The reduced soil moisture associated with the earlier spring snowmelt enhances surface warming over Mongolia and northeastern China and the later spring snowmelt leads to surface cooling over Far East in summer, both of which are responsible for the formation of the ECNOS pattern.

Identification of a new genotype of canine distemper virus circulating in America.

PubMed

Gámiz, César; Martella, Vito; Ulloa, Raúl; Fajardo, Raúl; Quijano-Hernandéz, Israel; Martínez, Simón

2011-08-01

Canine Distemper is a highly contagious viral systemic disease that affects a wide variety of terrestrial carnivores. Canine Distemper virus (CDV) appears genetically heterogeneous, markedly in the hemagglutinin protein (H), showing geographic patterns of diversification that are useful to monitor CDV molecular epidemiology. In Mexico the activity of canine distemper remains high in dogs, likely because vaccine prophylaxis coverage in canine population is under the levels required to control effectively the disease. By phylogenetic analysis based on the nucleoprotein (N) and on the H genes, Mexican CDV strains collected between 2007 and 2010 were distinguished into several genovariants, all which constituted a unique group, clearly distinct from field and vaccine strains circulating worldwide, but resembling a CDV strain, 19876, identified in Missouri, USA, 2004, that was genetically unrelated to other North-American CDV strains. Gathering information on the genetic heterogeneity of CDV on a global scale appears pivotal in order to investigate the origin and modalities of introduction of unusual/novel CDV strains, as well as to understand if vaccine breakthroughs or disease epidemics may be somewhat related to genetic/antigenic or biological differences between field and vaccine strains.

Interactions Between Ocean Circulation and Topography in Icy Worlds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodman, J. C.

2018-05-01

To what extent does topography at the water-rock interface control the general circulation patterns of icy world oceans? And contrariwise, to what extent does liquid flow control the topography at the ice-water interface (or interfaces)?

Exploring the sensitivity of global ocean circulation to future ice loss from Antarctica

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Condron, Alan

The sensitivity of the global ocean circulation and climate to large increases in iceberg calving and meltwater discharges from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are rarely studied and poorly understood. The requirement to investigate this topic is heightened by growing evidence that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is vulnerable to rapid retreat and collapse on multidecadal-to-centennial timescales. Observations collected over the last 30 years indicate that the WAIS is now losing mass at an accelerated and that a collapse may have already begun in the Amundsen Sea sector. In addition, some recent future model simulations of the AIS showmore » the potential for rapid ice sheet retreat in the next 50 – 300 years. Such a collapse would be associated with the discharge of enormous volumes of ice and meltwater to the Southern Ocean. This project funds PI Condron to begin assessing the sensitivity of the global ocean circulation to projected increases in meltwater discharge and iceberg calving from the AIS for the next 50 – 100 years. A series of climate model simulations will determine changes in ocean circulation and temperature at the ice sheet grounding line, the role of mesoscale ocean eddies in mixing and transporting freshwater away from the continent to deep water formation regions, and the likely impact on the northward transport of heat to Europe and North America.« less

Wild and vaccine-derived poliovirus circulation, and implications for polio eradication.

PubMed

Lopalco, P L

2017-02-01

Polio cases due to wild virus are reported by only three countries in the world. Poliovirus type 2 has been globally eradicated and the last detection of poliovirus type 3 dates to November 2012. Poliovirus type 1 remains the only circulating wild strain; between January and September 2016 it caused 26 cases (nine in Afghanistan, 14 in Pakistan, three in Nigeria). The use of oral polio vaccine (OPV) has been the key to success in the eradication effort. However, paradoxically, moving towards global polio eradication, the burden caused by vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) becomes increasingly important. In this paper circulation of both wild virus and VDPVs is reviewed and implications for the polio eradication endgame are discussed. Between April and May 2016 OPV2 cessation has been implemented globally, in a coordinated switch from trivalent OPV to bivalent OPV. In order to decrease the risk for cVDPV2 re-emergence inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) has been introduced in the routine vaccine schedule of all countries. The likelihood of re-emergence of cVDPVs should markedly decrease with time after OPV cessation, but silent circulation of polioviruses cannot be ruled out even a long time after cessation. For this reason, immunity levels against polioviruses should be kept as high as possible in the population by the use of IPV, and both clinical and environmental surveillance should be maintained at a high level.

ICPP: Approach for Understanding Complexity of Plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, Tetsuya

2000-10-01

In this talk I wish to present an IT system that could promote Science of Complexity. In order to deal with a seemingly `complex' phenomenon, which means `beyond analytical manipulation', computer simulation is a viable powerful tool. However, complexity implies a concept beyond the horizon of reductionism. Therefore, rather than simply solving a complex phenomenon for a given boundary condition, one must establish an intelligent way of attacking mutual evolution of a system and its environment. NIFS-TCSC has been developing a prototype system that consists of supercomputers, virtual reality devices and high-speed network system. Let us explain this by picking up a global atmospheric circulation group, global oceanic circulation group and local weather prediction group. Local weather prediction group predicts the local change of the weather such as the creation of cloud and rain in the near future under the global conditions obtained by the global atmospheric and ocean groups. The global groups run simulations by modifying the local heat source/sink evaluated by the local weather prediction and then obtain the global conditions in the next time step. By repeating such a feedback performance one can predict the mutual evolution of the local system and its environment. Mutual information exchanges among multiple groups are carried out instantaneously by the networked common virtual reality space in which 3-D global and local images of the atmospheric and oceanic circulation and the cloud and rain maps are arbitrarily manipulated by any of the groups and commonly viewed. The present networking system has a great advantage that any simulation groups can freely and arbitrarily change their alignment, so that mutual evolution of any stratum system can become tractable by utilizing this network system.

The onset of modern-like Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at the Eocene-Oligocene transition: Evidence, causes, and possible implications for global cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abelson, Meir; Erez, Jonathan

2017-06-01

A compilation of benthic δ18O from the whole Atlantic and the Southern Ocean (Atlantic sector) shows two major jumps in the interbasinal gradient of δ18O (Δδ18O) during the Eocene and the Oligocene: one at ˜40 Ma and the second concomitant with the isotopic event of the Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT), ˜33.7 Ma ago. From previously published circulation models and proxies, we show that the first Δδ18O jump reflects the thermal isolation of Antarctica associated with the proto-Antarctic circumpolar current (ACC). The second marks the onset of interhemispheric northern-sourced circulation cell, similar to the modern Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The onset of AMOC-like circulation slightly preceded (100-300 kyr) the EOT, as we show by the high-resolution profiles of δ18O and δ13C previously published from DSDP/ODP sites in the Southern Ocean and South Atlantic. These events coincide with the onset of antiestuarine circulation between the Nordic seas and the North Atlantic which started around the EOT and may be connected to the deepening of the Greenland-Scotland Ridge. We suggest that while the shallow proto-ACC supplied the energy for deep ocean convection in the Southern Hemisphere, the onset of the interhemispheric northern circulation cell was due to the significant EOT intensification of deepwater formation in the North Atlantic driven by the Nordic antiestuarine circulation. This onset of the interhemispheric northern-sourced circulation cell could have prompted the EOT global cooling.