Long-run evolution of the global economy - Part 2: Hindcasts of innovation and growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrett, T. J.

2015-10-01

Long-range climate forecasts use integrated assessment models to link the global economy to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper evaluates an alternative economic framework outlined in part 1 of this study (Garrett, 2014) that approaches the global economy using purely physical principles rather than explicitly resolved societal dynamics. If this model is initialized with economic data from the 1950s, it yields hindcasts for how fast global economic production and energy consumption grew between 2000 and 2010 with skill scores > 90 % relative to a model of persistence in trends. The model appears to attain high skill partly because there was a strong impulse of discovery of fossil fuel energy reserves in the mid-twentieth century that helped civilization to grow rapidly as a deterministic physical response. Forecasting the coming century may prove more of a challenge because the effect of the energy impulse appears to have nearly run its course. Nonetheless, an understanding of the external forces that drive civilization may help development of constrained futures for the coupled evolution of civilization and climate during the Anthropocene.

A storm-time plasmasphere evolution study using data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikoukar, R.; Bust, G. S.; Bishop, R. L.; Coster, A. J.; Lemon, C.; Turner, D. L.; Roeder, J. L.

2017-12-01

In this work, we study the evolution of the Earth's plasmasphere during geomagnetic active periods using the Plasmasphere Data Assimilation (PDA) model. The total electron content (TEC) measurements from an extensive network of global ground-based GPS receivers as well as GPS receivers on-board Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) satellites and Communications/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite are ingested into the model. Global Core Plasma model, which is an empirical plasmasphere model, is utilized as the background model. Based on the 3D-VAR optimization, the PDA assimilative model benefits from incorporation of regularization techniques to prevent non-physical altitudinal variation in density estimates due to the limited-angle observational geometry. This work focuses on the plasmapause location, plasmasphere erosion time scales and refilling rates during the main and recovery phases of geomagnetic storms as estimated from the PDA 3-dimensional global maps of electron density in the ionosphere/plasmasphere. The comparison between the PDA results with in-situ density measurements from THEMIS and Van Allen Probes, and the RCM-E first-principle model will be also presented.

The magma ocean concept and lunar evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Warren, P. H.

1985-01-01

The model of lunar evolution in which the anorthositic plagioclase-rich oldest crust of the moon is formed over a period of 300 Myr or less by crystallization as it floats on a global ocean of magma tens or hundreds of km thick is examined in a review of petrological and theoretical studies. Consideration is given to the classification of lunar rocks, the evidence for primordial deep global differentiation, constraints on the depth of the molten zone, the effects of pressure on mineral stability relationships, mainly-liquid vs mainly-magmifer ocean models, and the evidence for multiple ancient differentiation episodes. A synthesis of the model of primordial differentiation and its aftereffects is presented, and the generalization of the model to the earth and to Mars, Mercury, Venus, and the asteroids is discussed.

Solar radiation as a global driver of hillslope asymmetry: Insights from an ecogeomorphic landscape evolution model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yetemen, Omer; Istanbulluoglu, Erkan; Duvall, Alison R.

2015-12-01

Observations at the field, catchment, and continental scales across a range of arid and semiarid climates and latitudes reveal aspect-controlled patterns in soil properties, vegetation types, ecohydrologic fluxes, and hillslope morphology. Although the global distribution of solar radiation on earth's surface and its implications on vegetation dynamics are well documented, we know little about how variation of solar radiation across latitudes influence landscape evolution and resulting geomorphic difference. Here, we used a landscape evolution model that couples the continuity equations for water, sediment, and aboveground vegetation biomass at each model element in order to explore the controls of latitude and mean annual precipitation (MAP) on the development of hillslope asymmetry (HA). In our model, asymmetric hillslopes emerged from the competition between soil creep and vegetation-modulated fluvial transport, driven by spatial distribution of solar radiation. Latitude was a primary driver of HA because of its effects on the global distribution of solar radiation. In the Northern Hemisphere, north-facing slopes (NFS), which support more vegetation cover and have lower transport efficiency, get steeper toward the North Pole while south-facing slopes (SFS) get gentler. In the Southern Hemisphere, the patterns are reversed and SFS get steeper toward the South Pole. For any given latitude, MAP is found to have minor control on HA. Our results underscore the potential influence of solar radiation as a global control on the development of asymmetric hillslopes in fluvial landscapes.

Global Evolution of Plasmaspheric Plasma: Spacecraft-Model Reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, B.; Welling, D. T.; Morley, S.

2017-12-01

During times of geomagnetic disturbance, material from the plasmasphere will move radially outward into the magnetosphere. Once introduced to the outer magnetosphere, this material has been shown to impact a variety of plasma populations as well as the coupling of energy from the solar wind into the magnetosphere and ionosphere. The magnitude of any of these effects is inherently linked to the density and evolution of the plasmaspheric plasma. Much of our idea of how this population behaves in the outer-magnetosphere is however based on statistical pictures and model results. Here, in-situ measurements from 10 spacecraft are used to constrain a coupled, global numerical modeling in order to identify true spatial extents, time histories, and densities of the plasmasphere and plumes in the outer magnetosphere.

A Critique and Response to Multicultural Visions of Globalization

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sriraman, Bharath; Adrian, Harry

2008-01-01

The paper by White in this issue of Interchange contains an interesting model for a global educational perspective based on the writings of Aurobindo and Pierre Teilhard de Chardin. White proposes a foundation for this new perspective based on the synthesis of Aurobindo's and de Chardin's theories of global, social, and conscious evolution. In our…

SURFACE AND LIGHTNING SOURCES OF NITROGEN OXIDES OVER THE UNITED STATES: MAGNITUDES, CHEMICAL EVOLUTION, AND OUTFLOW

EPA Science Inventory

We use observations from two aircraft during the ICARTT campaign over the eastern United States and North Atlantic during summer 2004, interpreted with a global 3-D model of tropospheric chemistry (GEOS-Chem) to test current understanding of regional sources, chemical evolution...

Testing the hypothesis on cognitive evolution of modern humans' learning ability: current status of past-climatic approaches.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoneda, Minoru; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Kawahata, Hodaka; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Oguchi, Takashi

2014-05-01

The impact of climate change on human evolution is important and debating topic for many years. Since 2010, we have involved in a general joint project entitled "Replacement of Neanderthal by Modern Humans: Testing Evolutional Models of Learning", which based on a theoretical prediction that the cognitive ability related to individual and social learning divide fates of ancient humans in very unstable Late Pleistocene climate. This model predicts that the human populations which experienced a series of environmental changes would have higher rate of individual learners, while detailed reconstructions of global climate change have reported fluent and drastic change based on ice cores and stalagmites. However, we want to understand the difference between anatomically modern human which survived and the other archaic extinct humans including European Neanderthals and Asian Denisovans. For this purpose the global synchronized change is not useful for understanding but the regional difference in the amplitude and impact of climate change is the information required. Hence, we invited a geophysicist busing Global Circulation Model to reconstruct the climatic distribution and temporal change in a continental scale. At the same time, some geochemists and geographers construct a database of local climate changes recorded in different proxies. At last, archaeologists and anthropologists tried to interpret the emergence and disappearance of human species in Europe and Asia on the reconstructed past climate maps using some tools, such as Eco-cultural niche model. Our project will show the regional difference in climate change and related archaeological events and its impact on the evolution of learning ability of modern humans.

Origin and thermal evolution of Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, G.; Solomon, Sean C.; Turcotte, D. L.; Drake, M. J.; Sleep, N. H.

1993-01-01

The thermal evolution of Mars is governed by subsolidus mantle convection beneath a thick lithosphere. Models of the interior evolution are developed by parameterizing mantle convective heat transport in terms of mantle viscosity, the superadiabatic temperature rise across the mantle and mantle heat production. Geological, geophysical, and geochemical observations of the composition and structure of the interior and of the timing of major events in Martian evolution, such as global differentiation, atmospheric outgassing and the formation of the hemispherical dichotomy and Tharsis, are used to constrain the model computations. Isotope systematics of SNC meteorites suggest core formation essentially contemporaneously with the completion of accretion. Other aspects of this investigation are discussed.

Combining archeomagnetic and volcanic data with historical geomagnetic observations to reconstruct global field evolution over the past 1000 years, including new paleomagnetic data from historical lava flows on Fogo, Cape Verde

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korte, M. C.; Senftleben, R.; Brown, M. C.; Finlay, C. C.; Feinberg, J. M.; Biggin, A. J.

2016-12-01

Geomagnetic field evolution of the recent past can be studied using different data sources: Jackson et al. (2000) combined historical observations with modern field measurements to derive a global geomagnetic field model (gufm1) spanning 1590 to 1990. Several published young archeo- and volcanic paleomagnetic data fall into this time interval. Here, we directly combine data from these different sources to derive a global field model covering the past 1000 years. We particularly focus on reliably recovering dipole moment evolution prior to the times of the first direct absolute intensity observations at around 1840. We first compared the different data types and their agreement with the gufm1 model to assess their compatibility and reliability. We used these results, in combination with statistical modelling tests, to obtain suitable uncertainty estimates as weighting factors for the data in the final model. In addition, we studied samples from seven lava flows from the island of Fogo, Cape Verde, erupted between 1664 and 1857. Oriented samples were available for two of them, providing declination and inclination results. Due to the complicated mineralogy of three of the flows, microwave paleointensity experiments using a modified version of the IZZI protocol were carried out on flows erupted in 1664, 1769, 1816 and 1847. The new directional results are compared with nearby historical data and the influence on, and agreement with, the new model are discussed.

Ring Current Ion Coupling with Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khazanov. G. V.; Gamayunov, K. V.; Jordanova, V. K.; Six, N. Frank (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A new ring current global model has been developed that couples the system of two kinetic equations: one equation describes the ring current (RC) ion dynamic, and another equation describes wave evolution of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves (EMIC). The coupled model is able to simulate, for the first time self-consistently calculated RC ion kinetic and evolution of EMIC waves that propagate along geomagnetic field lines and reflect from the ionosphere. Ionospheric properties affect the reflection index through the integral Pedersen and Hall conductivities. The structure and dynamics of the ring current proton precipitating flux regions, intensities of EMIC global RC energy balance, and some other parameters will be studied in detail for the selected geomagnetic storms.

Medial-based deformable models in nonconvex shape-spaces for medical image segmentation.

PubMed

McIntosh, Chris; Hamarneh, Ghassan

2012-01-01

We explore the application of genetic algorithms (GA) to deformable models through the proposition of a novel method for medical image segmentation that combines GA with nonconvex, localized, medial-based shape statistics. We replace the more typical gradient descent optimizer used in deformable models with GA, and the convex, implicit, global shape statistics with nonconvex, explicit, localized ones. Specifically, we propose GA to reduce typical deformable model weaknesses pertaining to model initialization, pose estimation and local minima, through the simultaneous evolution of a large number of models. Furthermore, we constrain the evolution, and thus reduce the size of the search-space, by using statistically-based deformable models whose deformations are intuitive (stretch, bulge, bend) and are driven in terms of localized principal modes of variation, instead of modes of variation across the entire shape that often fail to capture localized shape changes. Although GA are not guaranteed to achieve the global optima, our method compares favorably to the prevalent optimization techniques, convex/nonconvex gradient-based optimizers and to globally optimal graph-theoretic combinatorial optimization techniques, when applied to the task of corpus callosum segmentation in 50 mid-sagittal brain magnetic resonance images.

Two-dimensional global hybrid simulation of pressure evolution and waves in the magnetosheath

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Y.; Denton, R. E.; Lee, L. C.; Chao, J. K.

2001-06-01

A two-dimensional hybrid simulation is carried out for the global structure of the magnetosheath. Quasi-perpendicular magnetosonic/fast mode waves with large-amplitude in-phase oscillations of the magnetic field and the ion density are seen near the bow shock transition. Alfvén/ion-cyclotron waves are observed along the streamlines in the magnetosheath, and the wave power peaks in the middle magnetosheath. Antiphase oscillations in the magnetic field and density are present away from the shock transition. Transport ratio analysis suggests that these oscillations result from mirror mode waves. Since fluid simulations are currently best able to model the global magnetosphere and the pressure in the magnetosphere is inherently anisotropic (parallel pressure p∥≠perpendicular pressure p⊥), it is of some interest to see if a fluid model can be used to predict the anisotropic pressure evolution of a plasma. Here the predictions of double adiabatic theory, the bounded anisotropy model, and the double polytropic model are tested using the two-dimensional hybrid simulation of the magnetosheath. Inputs to the models from the hybrid simulation are the initial post bow shock pressures and the time-dependent density and magnetic field strength along streamlines of the plasma. The success of the models is evaluated on the basis of how well they predict the subsequent evolution of p∥ and p⊥. The bounded anisotropy model, which encorporates a bound on p⊥/p∥ due to the effect of ion cyclotron pitch angle scattering, does a very good job of predicting the evolution of p⊥ this is evidence that local transfer of energy due to waves is occurring. Further evidence is the positive identification of ion-cyclotron waves in the simulation. The lack of such a good prediction for the evolution of p∥ appears to be due to the model's lack of time dependence for the wave-particle interaction and its neglect of the parallel heat flux. Estimates indicate that these effects will be less significant in the real magnetosheath, though perhaps not negligible.

The scatter and evolution of the global hot gas properties of simulated galaxy cluster populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Brun, Amandine M. C.; McCarthy, Ian G.; Schaye, Joop; Ponman, Trevor J.

2017-04-01

We use the cosmo-OverWhelmingly Large Simulation (cosmo-OWLS) suite of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations to investigate the scatter and evolution of the global hot gas properties of large simulated populations of galaxy groups and clusters. Our aim is to compare the predictions of different physical models and to explore the extent to which commonly adopted assumptions in observational analyses (e.g. self-similar evolution) are violated. We examine the relations between (true) halo mass and the X-ray temperature, X-ray luminosity, gas mass, Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) flux, the X-ray analogue of the SZ flux (YX) and the hydrostatic mass. For the most realistic models, which include active galactic nuclei (AGN) feedback, the slopes of the various mass-observable relations deviate substantially from the self-similar ones, particularly at late times and for low-mass clusters. The amplitude of the mass-temperature relation shows negative evolution with respect to the self-similar prediction (I.e. slower than the prediction) for all models, driven by an increase in non-thermal pressure support at higher redshifts. The AGN models predict strong positive evolution of the gas mass fractions at low halo masses. The SZ flux and YX show positive evolution with respect to self-similarity at low mass but negative evolution at high mass. The scatter about the relations is well approximated by log-normal distributions, with widths that depend mildly on halo mass. The scatter decreases significantly with increasing redshift. The exception is the hydrostatic mass-halo mass relation, for which the scatter increases with redshift. Finally, we discuss the relative merits of various hot gas-based mass proxies.

Time dependence of breakdown in a global fiber-bundle model with continuous damage.

PubMed

Moral, L; Moreno, Y; Gómez, J B; Pacheco, A F

2001-06-01

A time-dependent global fiber-bundle model of fracture with continuous damage is formulated in terms of a set of coupled nonlinear differential equations. A first integral of this set is analytically obtained. The time evolution of the system is studied by applying a discrete probabilistic method. Several results are discussed emphasizing their differences with the standard time-dependent model. The results obtained show that with this simple model a variety of experimental observations can be qualitatively reproduced.

Effects of income redistribution on the evolution of cooperation in spatial public goods games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pei, Zhenhua; Wang, Baokui; Du, Jinming

2017-01-01

Income redistribution is the transfer of income from some individuals to others directly or indirectly by means of social mechanisms, such as taxation, public services and so on. Employing a spatial public goods game, we study the influence of income redistribution on the evolution of cooperation. Two kinds of evolutionary models are constructed, which describe local and global redistribution of income respectively. In the local model, players have to pay part of their income after each PGG and the accumulated income is redistributed to the members. While in the global model, all the players pay part of their income after engaging in all the local PGGs, which are centred on himself and his nearest neighbours, and the accumulated income is redistributed to the whole population. We show that the cooperation prospers significantly with increasing income expenditure proportion in the local redistribution of income, while in the global model the situation is opposite. Furthermore, the cooperation drops dramatically from the maximum curvature point of income expenditure proportion. In particular, the intermediate critical points are closely related to the renormalized enhancement factors.

Population ecology, nonlinear dynamics, and social evolution. I. Associations among nonrelatives.

PubMed

Avilés, Leticia; Abbot, Patrick; Cutter, Asher D

2002-02-01

Using an individual-based and genetically explicit simulation model, we explore the evolution of sociality within a population-ecology and nonlinear-dynamics framework. Assuming that individual fitness is a unimodal function of group size and that cooperation may carry a relative fitness cost, we consider the evolution of one-generation breeding associations among nonrelatives. We explore how parameters such as the intrinsic rate of growth and group and global carrying capacities may influence social evolution and how social evolution may, in turn, influence and be influenced by emerging group-level and population-wide dynamics. We find that group living and cooperation evolve under a wide range of parameter values, even when cooperation is costly and the interactions can be defined as altruistic. Greater levels of cooperation, however, did evolve when cooperation carried a low or no relative fitness cost. Larger group carrying capacities allowed the evolution of larger groups but also resulted in lower cooperative tendencies. When the intrinsic rate of growth was not too small and control of the global population size was density dependent, the evolution of large cooperative tendencies resulted in dynamically unstable groups and populations. These results are consistent with the existence and typical group sizes of organisms ranging from the pleometrotic ants to the colonial birds and the global population outbreaks and crashes characteristic of organisms such as the migratory locusts and the tree-killing bark beetles.

Shaping asteroid models using genetic evolution (SAGE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartczak, P.; Dudziński, G.

2018-02-01

In this work, we present SAGE (shaping asteroid models using genetic evolution), an asteroid modelling algorithm based solely on photometric lightcurve data. It produces non-convex shapes, orientations of the rotation axes and rotational periods of asteroids. The main concept behind a genetic evolution algorithm is to produce random populations of shapes and spin-axis orientations by mutating a seed shape and iterating the process until it converges to a stable global minimum. We tested SAGE on five artificial shapes. We also modelled asteroids 433 Eros and 9 Metis, since ground truth observations for them exist, allowing us to validate the models. We compared the derived shape of Eros with the NEAR Shoemaker model and that of Metis with adaptive optics and stellar occultation observations since other models from various inversion methods were available for Metis.

Global Modeling of Uranium Molecular Species Formation Using Laser-Ablated Plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curreli, Davide; Finko, Mikhail; Azer, Magdi; Armstrong, Mike; Crowhurst, Jonathan; Radousky, Harry; Rose, Timothy; Stavrou, Elissaios; Weisz, David; Zaug, Joseph

2016-10-01

Uranium is chemically fractionated from other refractory elements in post-detonation nuclear debris but the mechanism is poorly understood. Fractionation alters the chemistry of the nuclear debris so that it no longer reflects the chemistry of the source weapon. The conditions of a condensing fireball can be simulated by a low-temperature plasma formed by vaporizing a uranium sample via laser heating. We have developed a global plasma kinetic model in order to model the chemical evolution of U/UOx species within an ablated plasma plume. The model allows to track the time evolution of the density and energy of an uranium plasma plume moving through an oxygen atmosphere of given fugacity, as well as other relevant quantities such as average electron and gas temperature. Comparison of model predictions with absorption spectroscopy of uranium-ablated plasmas provide preliminary insights on the key chemical species and evolution pathways involved during the fractionation process. This project was sponsored by the DoD, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, Grant HDTRA1-16-1-0020. This work was performed in part under the auspices of the U.S. DoE by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Modeling of surface temperature effects on mixed material migration in NSTX-U

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nichols, J. H.; Jaworski, M. A.; Schmid, K.

2016-10-01

NSTX-U will initially operate with graphite walls, periodically coated with thin lithium films to improve plasma performance. However, the spatial and temporal evolution of these films during and after plasma exposure is poorly understood. The WallDYN global mixed-material surface evolution model has recently been applied to the NSTX-U geometry to simulate the evolution of poloidally inhomogenous mixed C/Li/O plasma-facing surfaces. The WallDYN model couples local erosion and deposition processes with plasma impurity transport in a non-iterative, self-consistent manner that maintains overall material balance. Temperature-dependent sputtering of lithium has been added to WallDYN, utilizing an adatom sputtering model developed from test stand experimental data. Additionally, a simplified temperature-dependent diffusion model has been added to WallDYN so as to capture the intercalation of lithium into a graphite bulk matrix. The sensitivity of global lithium migration patterns to changes in surface temperature magnitude and distribution will be examined. The effect of intra-discharge increases in surface temperature due to plasma heating, such as those observed during NSTX Liquid Lithium Divertor experiments, will also be examined. Work supported by US DOE contract DE-AC02-09CH11466.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kadoya, S.; Tajika, E., E-mail: kadoya@astrobio.k.u-tokyo.ac.jp, E-mail: tajika@eps.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp

The climatic evolution of the Earth depends strongly on the evolution of the insolation from the Sun and the amount of the greenhouse gasses, especially CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere. Here, we investigate the evolution of the climate of hypothetical Earths around stars whose masses are different from the solar mass with a luminosity evolution model of the stars, a mantle degassing model coupled with a parameterized convection model of the planetary interiors, and an energy balance climate model of the planetary surface. In the habitable zone (HZ), the climate of the planets is initially warm or hot, depending onmore » the orbital semimajor axes. We found that, in the inner HZ, the climate of the planets becomes hotter with time owing to the increase in the luminosity of the central stars, while, in the outer HZ, it becomes colder and eventually globally ice-covered owing to the decrease in the CO{sub 2} degassing rate of the planets. The orbital condition for maintaining the warm climate similar to the present Earth becomes very limited, and more interestingly, the planet orbiting in the outer HZ becomes globally ice-covered after a certain critical age (∼3 Gyr for the hypothetical Earth with standard parameters), irrespective of the mass of the central star. This is because the critical age depends on the evolution of the planets and planetary factors, rather than on the stellar mass. The habitability of the Earth-like planet is shown to be limited with age even though it is orbiting within the HZ.« less

Global thermal models of the lithosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cammarano, F.; Guerri, M.

2017-12-01

Unraveling the thermal structure of the outermost shell of our planet is key for understanding its evolution. We obtain temperatures from interpretation of global shear-velocity (VS) models. Long-wavelength thermal structure is well determined by seismic models and only slightly affected by compositional effects and uncertainties in mineral-physics properties. Absolute temperatures and gradients with depth, however, are not well constrained. Adding constraints from petrology, heat-flow observations and thermal evolution of oceanic lithosphere help to better estimate absolute temperatures in the top part of the lithosphere. We produce global thermal models of the lithosphere at different spatial resolution, up to spherical-harmonics degree 24, and provide estimated standard deviations. We provide purely seismic thermal (TS) model and hybrid models where temperatures are corrected with steady-state conductive geotherms on continents and cooling model temperatures on oceanic regions. All relevant physical properties, with the exception of thermal conductivity, are based on a self-consistent thermodynamical modelling approach. Our global thermal models also include density and compressional-wave velocities (VP) as obtained either assuming no lateral variations in composition or a simple reference 3-D compositional structure, which takes into account a chemically depleted continental lithosphere. We found that seismically-derived temperatures in continental lithosphere fit well, overall, with continental geotherms, but a large variation in radiogenic heat is required to reconcile them with heat flow (long wavelength) observations. Oceanic shallow lithosphere below mid-oceanic ridges and young oceans is colder than expected, confirming the possible presence of a dehydration boundary around 80 km depth already suggested in previous studies. The global thermal models should serve as the basis to move at a smaller spatial scale, where additional thermo-chemical variations required by geophysical observations can be included.

Evolution in Cloud Population Statistics of the MJO: From AMIE Field Observations to Global-Cloud Permitting Models Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kollias, Pavlos

This is a multi-institutional, collaborative project using a three-tier modeling approach to bridge field observations and global cloud-permitting models, with emphases on cloud population structural evolution through various large-scale environments. Our contribution was in data analysis for the generation of high value cloud and precipitation products and derive cloud statistics for model validation. There are two areas in data analysis that we contributed: the development of a synergistic cloud and precipitation cloud classification that identify different cloud (e.g. shallow cumulus, cirrus) and precipitation types (shallow, deep, convective, stratiform) using profiling ARM observations and the development of a quantitative precipitation ratemore » retrieval algorithm using profiling ARM observations. Similar efforts have been developed in the past for precipitation (weather radars), but not for the millimeter-wavelength (cloud) radar deployed at the ARM sites.« less

Numerical Predictions of Damage and Failure in Carbon Fiber Reinforced Laminates Using a Thermodynamically-Based Work Potential Theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pineda, Evan Jorge; Waas, Anthony M.

2013-01-01

A thermodynamically-based work potential theory for modeling progressive damage and failure in fiber-reinforced laminates is presented. The current, multiple-internal state variable (ISV) formulation, referred to as enhanced Schapery theory (EST), utilizes separate ISVs for modeling the effects of damage and failure. Consistent characteristic lengths are introduced into the formulation to govern the evolution of the failure ISVs. Using the stationarity of the total work potential with respect to each ISV, a set of thermodynamically consistent evolution equations for the ISVs are derived. The theory is implemented into a commercial finite element code. The model is verified against experimental results from two laminated, T800/3900-2 panels containing a central notch and different fiber-orientation stacking sequences. Global load versus displacement, global load versus local strain gage data, and macroscopic failure paths obtained from the models are compared against the experimental results.

LOW MACH NUMBER MODELING OF CONVECTION IN HELIUM SHELLS ON SUB-CHANDRASEKHAR WHITE DWARFS. II. BULK PROPERTIES OF SIMPLE MODELS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jacobs, A. M.; Zingale, M.; Nonaka, A.

2016-08-10

The dynamics of helium shell convection driven by nuclear burning establish the conditions for runaway in the sub-Chandrasekhar-mass, double-detonation model for SNe Ia, as well as for a variety of other explosive phenomena. We explore these convection dynamics for a range of white dwarf core and helium shell masses in three dimensions using the low Mach number hydrodynamics code MAESTRO. We present calculations of the bulk properties of this evolution, including time-series evolution of global diagnostics, lateral averages of the 3D state, and the global 3D state. We find a variety of outcomes, including quasi-equilibrium, localized runaway, and convective runaway.more » Our results suggest that the double-detonation progenitor model is promising and that 3D dynamic convection plays a key role.« less

Low Mach Number Modeling of Convection in Helium Shells on Sub-Chandrasekhar White Dwarfs. II. Bulk Properties of Simple Models

DOE PAGES

Jacobs, A. M.; Zingale, M.; Nonaka, A.; ...

2016-08-10

The dynamics of helium shell convection driven by nuclear burning establish the conditions for runaway in the sub-Chandrasekhar-mass, double-detonation model for SNe Ia, as well as for a variety of other explosive phenomena. In this paper, we explore these convection dynamics for a range of white dwarf core and helium shell masses in three dimensions using the low Mach number hydrodynamics code MAESTRO. We present calculations of the bulk properties of this evolution, including time-series evolution of global diagnostics, lateral averages of the 3D state, and the global 3D state. We find a variety of outcomes, including quasi-equilibrium, localized runaway,more » and convective runaway. Finally, our results suggest that the double-detonation progenitor model is promising and that 3D dynamic convection plays a key role.« less

Wind-Driven Global Evolution of Protoplanetary Disks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Xue-Ning

It has been realized in the recent years that magnetized disk winds disk- likely play a decisive role in the global evolution of protoplanetary disks protoplanetary evolution (PPDs). Motivated by recent local simulations local , we first describe a global magnetized disk wind model, from which wind-driven accretion rate -rate wind-driven and wind mass loss rate can be reliably estimated. Both rates are shown to strongly depend on the amount of magnetic flux magnetic threading the disk. Wind kinematics is also affected by thermodynamics in the wind zone (particularly far UV heating/ionization), and the mass loss process loss- can be better termed as "magneto-photoevaporation." We then construct a framework of PPD global evolution global that incorporates wind-driven and viscously driven accretion viscously-driven as well as wind mass loss. For typical PPD accretion rates, the required field strength would lead to wind mass loss rate at least comparable to disk accretion rate, and mass loss is most significant in the outer disk (beyond ˜ 10 AU). Finally, we discuss the transport of magnetic flux in PPDs, which largely governs the long-term evolution long-term of PPDs.

Prehistoric land use and Neolithisation in Europe in the context of regional climate events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemmen, C.; Wirtz, K. W.; Gronenborn, D.

2009-04-01

We present a simple, adaptation-driven, spatially explicit model of pre-Bronze age socio-technological change, called the Global Land Use and Technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES). The socio-technological realm is described by three characteristic traits: available technology, subsistence style ratio, and economic diversity. Human population and culture develop in the context of global paleoclimate and regional paleoclimate events. Global paleoclimate is derived from CLIMBER-2 Earth System Model anomalies superimposed on the IIASA temperature and precipitation database. Regional a forcing is provided by abrupt climate deteriorations from a compilation of 138 long-term high-resolution climate proxy time series from mostly terrestrial and near-shore archives. The GLUES simulator provides for a novel way to explore the interplay between climate, climate change, and cultural evolution both on the Holocene timescale as well as for short-term extreme event periods. We sucessfully simulate the migration of people and the diffusion of Neolithic technology from the Near East into Europe in the period 12000-4000 a BP. We find good agreement with recent archeological compilations of Western Eurasian Neolithic sites. No causal relationship between climate events and cultural evolution could be identified, but the speed of cultural development is found to be modulated by the frequency of climate events. From the demographic evolution and regional ressource consumption, we estimate regional land use change and prehistoric greenhouse gas emissions.

Global- to Micro-Scale Evolution of the Pinatubo Aerosol: Using Composite Data Sets to Build the Picture and Assess Consistency of Different Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, P. B.; Pueschel, R. F.; Livingston, J. M.; Bergstrom, R.; Lawless, James G. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

This paper brings together experimental. evidence required to build realistic models of the global evolution of physical, chemical, and optical properties of the aerosol resulting from the 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruption. Such models are needed to compute the effects of the aerosol on atmospheric chemistry, dynamics, radiation, and temperature. Whereas there is now a large and growing body of post-Pinatubo measurements by a variety of techniques, some results are in conflict, and a self-consistent, unified picture is needed, along with an assessment of remaining uncertainties. This paper examines data from photometers, radiometers, impactors, optical counters/sizers, and lidars operated on the ground, aircraft, balloons, and spacecraft.

Ring Current Ion Coupling with Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khazanov, George V.

2002-01-01

A new ring current global model has been developed for the first time that couples the system of two kinetic equations: one equation describes the ring current (RC) ion dynamic, and another equation describes wave evolution of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves (EMIC). The coupled model is able to simulate, for the first time self-consistently calculated RC ion kinetic and evolution of EMIC waves that propagate along geomagnetic field lines and reflect from the ionosphere. Ionospheric properties affect the reflection index through the integral Pedersen and Hall coductivities. The structure and dynamics of the ring current proton precipitating flux regions, intensities of EMIC, global RC energy balance, and some other parameters will be studied in detail for the selected geomagnetic storms. The space whether aspects of RC modelling and comparison with the data will also be discussed.

Simulation of multi-pulse coaxial helicity injection in the Sustained Spheromak Physics Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Bryan, J. B.; Romero-Talamás, C. A.; Woodruff, S.

2018-03-01

Nonlinear, numerical computation with the NIMROD code is used to explore magnetic self-organization during multi-pulse coaxial helicity injection in the Sustained Spheromak Physics eXperiment. We describe multiple distinct phases of spheromak evolution, starting from vacuum magnetic fields and the formation of the initial magnetic flux bubble through multiple refluxing pulses and the eventual onset of the column mode instability. Experimental and computational magnetic diagnostics agree on the onset of the column mode instability, which first occurs during the second refluxing pulse of the simulated discharge. Our computations also reproduce the injector voltage traces, despite only specifying the injector current and not explicitly modeling the external capacitor bank circuit. The computations demonstrate that global magnetic evolution is fairly robust to different transport models and, therefore, that a single fluid-temperature model is sufficient for a broader, qualitative assessment of spheromak performance. Although discharges with similar traces of normalized injector current produce similar global spheromak evolution, details of the current distribution during the column mode instability impact the relative degree of poloidal flux amplification and magnetic helicity content.

A coevolving model based on preferential triadic closure for social media networks

PubMed Central

Li, Menghui; Zou, Hailin; Guan, Shuguang; Gong, Xiaofeng; Li, Kun; Di, Zengru; Lai, Choy-Heng

2013-01-01

The dynamical origin of complex networks, i.e., the underlying principles governing network evolution, is a crucial issue in network study. In this paper, by carrying out analysis to the temporal data of Flickr and Epinions–two typical social media networks, we found that the dynamical pattern in neighborhood, especially the formation of triadic links, plays a dominant role in the evolution of networks. We thus proposed a coevolving dynamical model for such networks, in which the evolution is only driven by the local dynamics–the preferential triadic closure. Numerical experiments verified that the model can reproduce global properties which are qualitatively consistent with the empirical observations. PMID:23979061

Towards a Global Evolutionary Model of Protoplanetary Disks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Xue-Ning

2016-04-01

A global picture of the evolution of protoplanetary disks (PPDs) is key to understanding almost every aspect of planet formation, where standard α-disk models have been continually employed for their simplicity. In the meantime, disk mass loss has been conventionally attributed to photoevaporation, which controls disk dispersal. However, a paradigm shift toward accretion driven by magnetized disk winds has taken place in recent years, thanks to studies of non-ideal magnetohydrodynamic effects in PPDs. I present a framework of global PPD evolution aiming to incorporate these advances, highlighting the role of wind-driven accretion and wind mass loss. Disk evolution is found to be largely dominated by wind-driven processes, and viscous spreading is suppressed. The timescale of disk evolution is controlled primarily by the amount of external magnetic flux threading the disks, and how rapidly the disk loses the flux. Rapid disk dispersal can be achieved if the disk is able to hold most of its magnetic flux during the evolution. In addition, because wind launching requires a sufficient level of ionization at the disk surface (mainly via external far-UV (FUV) radiation), wind kinematics is also affected by the FUV penetration depth and disk geometry. For a typical disk lifetime of a few million years, the disk loses approximately the same amount of mass through the wind as through accretion onto the protostar, and most of the wind mass loss proceeds from the outer disk via a slow wind. Fractional wind mass loss increases with increasing disk lifetime. Significant wind mass loss likely substantially enhances the dust-to-gas mass ratio and promotes planet formation.

Fire feedbacks over geological time and the evolution of atmospheric oxygen concentration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, B.; Belcher, C.; Lenton, T. M.

2017-12-01

During the 4.5 billion year history of the Earth, the concentration of oxygen in the atmosphere has risen from trace levels to today's 21%. Yet over the last 400 million years, O2 concentration appears to have remained within a relatively narrow range (around 15% - 30%), despite dramatic changes in the nature of global biogeochemical cycling. This stability has been crucial for continued animal evolution, and is thought to have arisen through feedbacks between oxygen, wildfire and plant productivity: the strong oxygen- dependence of fire initiation and spread means that global photosynthetic primary productivity is suppressed when oxygen levels are high, and enhanced when levels are low. We present biogeochemical modelling of the long term carbon and oxygen cycles, which aims to capture the operation of the wildfire feedback alongside other key processes. We find that wildfire can effectively stabilize long term oxygen concentrations, but that the nature of this feedback has changed as plant evolution has provided different fuels. Specifically, the evolution of early angiosperms during the Cretaceous period provided new understory fuels that more easily facilitated crown and canopy fires. Adding these dynamics to our model produces a more stable system over long timescales, and the model predicts that oxygen concentration has declined towards the present day - a prediction that is supported by other independent estimates.

Active contour-based visual tracking by integrating colors, shapes, and motions.

PubMed

Hu, Weiming; Zhou, Xue; Li, Wei; Luo, Wenhan; Zhang, Xiaoqin; Maybank, Stephen

2013-05-01

In this paper, we present a framework for active contour-based visual tracking using level sets. The main components of our framework include contour-based tracking initialization, color-based contour evolution, adaptive shape-based contour evolution for non-periodic motions, dynamic shape-based contour evolution for periodic motions, and the handling of abrupt motions. For the initialization of contour-based tracking, we develop an optical flow-based algorithm for automatically initializing contours at the first frame. For the color-based contour evolution, Markov random field theory is used to measure correlations between values of neighboring pixels for posterior probability estimation. For adaptive shape-based contour evolution, the global shape information and the local color information are combined to hierarchically evolve the contour, and a flexible shape updating model is constructed. For the dynamic shape-based contour evolution, a shape mode transition matrix is learnt to characterize the temporal correlations of object shapes. For the handling of abrupt motions, particle swarm optimization is adopted to capture the global motion which is applied to the contour in the current frame to produce an initial contour in the next frame.

The Local Structure of Globalization. The Network Dynamics of Foreign Direct Investments in the International Electricity Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koskinen, Johan; Lomi, Alessandro

2013-05-01

We study the evolution of the network of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the international electricity industry during the period 1994-2003. We assume that the ties in the network of investment relations between countries are created and deleted in continuous time, according to a conditional Gibbs distribution. This assumption allows us to take simultaneously into account the aggregate predictions of the well-established gravity model of international trade as well as local dependencies between network ties connecting the countries in our sample. According to the modified version of the gravity model that we specify, the probability of observing an investment tie between two countries depends on the mass of the economies involved, their physical distance, and the tendency of the network to self-organize into local configurations of network ties. While the limiting distribution of the data generating process is an exponential random graph model, we do not assume the system to be in equilibrium. We find evidence of the effects of the standard gravity model of international trade on evolution of the global FDI network. However, we also provide evidence of significant dyadic and extra-dyadic dependencies between investment ties that are typically ignored in available research. We show that local dependencies between national electricity industries are sufficient for explaining global properties of the network of foreign direct investments. We also show, however, that network dependencies vary significantly over time giving rise to a time-heterogeneous localized process of network evolution.

Normal and abnormal evolution of argon metastable density in high-density plasmas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seo, B. H.; Kim, J. H., E-mail: jhkim86@kriss.re.kr; You, S. J., E-mail: sjyou@cnu.ac.kr

2015-05-15

A controversial problem on the evolution of Ar metastable density as a function of electron density (increasing trend versus decreasing trend) was resolved by discovering the anomalous evolution of the argon metastable density with increasing electron density (discharge power), including both trends of the metastable density [Daltrini et al., Appl. Phys. Lett. 92, 061504 (2008)]. Later, by virtue of an adequate physical explanation based on a simple global model, both evolutions of the metastable density were comprehensively understood as part of the abnormal evolution occurring at low- and high-density regimes, respectively, and thus the physics behind the metastable evolution hasmore » seemed to be clearly disclosed. In this study, however, a remarkable result for the metastable density behavior with increasing electron density was observed: even in the same electron density regime, there are both normal and abnormal evolutions of metastable-state density with electron density depending on the measurement position: The metastable density increases with increasing electron density at a position far from the inductively coupled plasma antenna but decreases at a position close to the antenna. The effect of electron temperature, which is spatially nonuniform in the plasma, on the electron population and depopulation processes of Argon metastable atoms with increasing electron density is a clue to understanding the results. The calculated results of the global model, including multistep ionization for the argon metastable state and measured electron temperature, are in a good agreement with the experimental results.« less

Origin and thermal evolution of Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Gerald; Soloman, S. C.; Turcotte, D. L.; Drake, M. J.; Sleep, N. H.

1990-01-01

The thermal evolution of Mars is governed by subsolidus mantle convection beneath a thick lithosphere. Models of the interior evolution are developed by parameterizing mantle convective heat transport in terms of mantle viscosity, the superadiabatic temperature rise across the mantle, and mantle heat production. Geological, geophysical, and geochemical observations of the compositon and structure of the interior and of the timing of major events in Martian evolution are used to constrain the model computations. Such evolutionary events include global differentiation, atmospheric outgassing, and the formation of the hemispherical dichotomy and Tharsis. Numerical calculations of fully three-dimensional, spherical convection in a shell the size of the Martian mantle are performed to explore plausible patterns of Martian mantel convection and to relate convective features, such as plumes, to surface features, such as Tharsis. The results from the model calculations are presented.

Cloud computing task scheduling strategy based on improved differential evolution algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Junwei; He, Qian; Fang, Yiqiu

2017-04-01

In order to optimize the cloud computing task scheduling scheme, an improved differential evolution algorithm for cloud computing task scheduling is proposed. Firstly, the cloud computing task scheduling model, according to the model of the fitness function, and then used improved optimization calculation of the fitness function of the evolutionary algorithm, according to the evolution of generation of dynamic selection strategy through dynamic mutation strategy to ensure the global and local search ability. The performance test experiment was carried out in the CloudSim simulation platform, the experimental results show that the improved differential evolution algorithm can reduce the cloud computing task execution time and user cost saving, good implementation of the optimal scheduling of cloud computing tasks.

Understanding the Miocene-Pliocene - The Mediterranean Point of View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simon, D.; Marzocchi, A.; Lunt, D. J.; Flecker, R.; Hilgen, F. J.; Meijer, P. T.

2015-12-01

During the Miocene-Pliocene the Mediterranean region experienced major changes in paleogeography. Today, its only connection to the global ocean is the Strait of Gibraltar. This restricted nature causes the Mediterranean basin to react more sensitive to climatic and tectonic related phenomena than the global ocean: Not just eustatic sea-level and regional river run-off, but also gateway tectonics and connectivity between sub-basins are leaving an enhanced fingerprint in its geological record. To understand its evolution, it is crucial to understand how these different effects are coupled. The Miocene-Pliocene sedimentary record of the Mediterranean alternates in composition and colour. Around the Miocene-Pliocene Boundary the most extreme changes occur in the Mediterranean Sea: About 6% of the salt in the global ocean got deposited in the Mediterranean Region, forming an approximately 2km thick salt layer, which is still present today. This extreme event is named the Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC, 5.97-5.33Ma). Before (and also after) the MSC, the sedimentary record demonstrates "marl dominated" alternations with variations in organic content (e.g. higher organic content = sapropel). During the MSC these change to mainly "evaporite (e.g. gypsum or halite) dominated" alternations, but also to brackish Black Sea-type of deposits towards the end of the crisis. Due to its relative short geological time span, the period before, during and after the MSC is ideal to study these extreme changes in sedimentation. We are investigating these couplings and evolutions in a box/budget model. With such a model we can study the responses to basin water exchange dynamics under the effect of different regional and global climatic and tectonic forcings, to predict the evolution of basin properties (e.g. salinity). By doing so we can isolate certain climatic and tectonic effects, to better understand their individual contribution, their interaction, but also the consequences due to their coupling. Keywords: Mediterranean Sea, Climate, Coupling, Evolution, Messinian Salinity Crisis, Modeling, Strait of Gibraltar, GCM

Global modelling of plasma-wall interaction in reversed field pinches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bagatin, M.; Costa, S.; Ortolani, S.

1989-04-01

The impurity production and deuterium recycling mechanisms in ETA—BETA II and RFX are firstly discussed by means of a simple model applicable to a stationary plasma interacting with the wall. This gives the time constant and the saturation values of the impurity concentration as a function of the boundary temperature and density. If the latter is sufficiently high, the impurity buildup in the main plasma becomes to some extent stabilized by the shielding effect of the edge. A self-consistent global model of the time evolution of an RFP plasma interacting with the wall is then described. The bulk and edge parameters are derived by solving the energy and particle balance equations incorporating some of the basic plasma-surface processes, such as sputtering, backscattering and desorption. The application of the model to ETA-BETA II confirms the impurity concentrations of the light and metal impurities as well as the time evolution of the average electron density found experimentally under different conditions. The model is then applied to RFX, a larger RFP experiment under construction, whose wall will be protected by a full graphite armour. The time evolution of the discharge shows that carbon sputtering could increase Zeff to ~ 4, but without affecting significantly the plasma performance.

Thermal evolution of a differentiated Ganymede and implications for surface features

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kirk, R. L.; Stevenson, D. J.

1987-01-01

Thermodynamic models are developed for the processes which controlled the evolution of the surface Ganymede, an icy Jovian satellite assumed to have a rock-rich core surrounded by a water-ice mantle. Account is taken of a heat pulse which would have arisen from a Rayleigh-Taylor instability at a deep-seated liquid-solid water interface, rapid fracturing from global stresses imposed by warm ice diapiric upwelling, impacts by large meteorites, and resurfacing by ice flows (rather than core formation). Comparisons are made with existing models for the evolution of Callisto, and the difficulties in defining a mechanism which produced the groove terrain of Ganymede are discussed.

Numerical Implementation of a Multiple-ISV Thermodynamically-Based Work Potential Theory for Modeling Progressive Damage and Failure in Fiber-Reinforced Laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pineda, Evan J.; Waas, Anthony M.

2011-01-01

A thermodynamically-based work potential theory for modeling progressive damage and failure in fiber-reinforced laminates is presented. The current, multiple-internal state variable (ISV) formulation, enhanced Schapery theory (EST), utilizes separate ISVs for modeling the effects of damage and failure. Damage is considered to be the effect of any structural changes in a material that manifest as pre-peak non-linearity in the stress versus strain response. Conversely, failure is taken to be the effect of the evolution of any mechanisms that results in post-peak strain softening. It is assumed that matrix microdamage is the dominant damage mechanism in continuous fiber-reinforced polymer matrix laminates, and its evolution is controlled with a single ISV. Three additional ISVs are introduced to account for failure due to mode I transverse cracking, mode II transverse cracking, and mode I axial failure. Typically, failure evolution (i.e., post-peak strain softening) results in pathologically mesh dependent solutions within a finite element method (FEM) setting. Therefore, consistent character element lengths are introduced into the formulation of the evolution of the three failure ISVs. Using the stationarity of the total work potential with respect to each ISV, a set of thermodynamically consistent evolution equations for the ISVs is derived. The theory is implemented into commercial FEM software. Objectivity of total energy dissipated during the failure process, with regards to refinements in the FEM mesh, is demonstrated. The model is also verified against experimental results from two laminated, T800/3900-2 panels containing a central notch and different fiber-orientation stacking sequences. Global load versus displacement, global load versus local strain gage data, and macroscopic failure paths obtained from the models are compared to the experiments.

Combining Distributed and Shared Memory Models: Approach and Evolution of the Global Arrays Toolkit

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nieplocha, Jarek; Harrison, Robert J.; Kumar, Mukul

2002-07-29

Both shared memory and distributed memory models have advantages and shortcomings. Shared memory model is much easier to use but it ignores data locality/placement. Given the hierarchical nature of the memory subsystems in the modern computers this characteristic might have a negative impact on performance and scalability. Various techniques, such as code restructuring to increase data reuse and introducing blocking in data accesses, can address the problem and yield performance competitive with message passing[Singh], however at the cost of compromising the ease of use feature. Distributed memory models such as message passing or one-sided communication offer performance and scalability butmore » they compromise the ease-of-use. In this context, the message-passing model is sometimes referred to as?assembly programming for the scientific computing?. The Global Arrays toolkit[GA1, GA2] attempts to offer the best features of both models. It implements a shared-memory programming model in which data locality is managed explicitly by the programmer. This management is achieved by explicit calls to functions that transfer data between a global address space (a distributed array) and local storage. In this respect, the GA model has similarities to the distributed shared-memory models that provide an explicit acquire/release protocol. However, the GA model acknowledges that remote data is slower to access than local data and allows data locality to be explicitly specified and hence managed. The GA model exposes to the programmer the hierarchical memory of modern high-performance computer systems, and by recognizing the communication overhead for remote data transfer, it promotes data reuse and locality of reference. This paper describes the characteristics of the Global Arrays programming model, capabilities of the toolkit, and discusses its evolution.« less

Solvable Hydrodynamics of Quantum Integrable Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulchandani, Vir B.; Vasseur, Romain; Karrasch, Christoph; Moore, Joel E.

2017-12-01

The conventional theory of hydrodynamics describes the evolution in time of chaotic many-particle systems from local to global equilibrium. In a quantum integrable system, local equilibrium is characterized by a local generalized Gibbs ensemble or equivalently a local distribution of pseudomomenta. We study time evolution from local equilibria in such models by solving a certain kinetic equation, the "Bethe-Boltzmann" equation satisfied by the local pseudomomentum density. Explicit comparison with density matrix renormalization group time evolution of a thermal expansion in the XXZ model shows that hydrodynamical predictions from smooth initial conditions can be remarkably accurate, even for small system sizes. Solutions are also obtained in the Lieb-Liniger model for free expansion into vacuum and collisions between clouds of particles, which model experiments on ultracold one-dimensional Bose gases.

Global Migration Dynamics Underlie Evolution and Persistence of Human Influenza A (H3N2)

PubMed Central

Bedford, Trevor; Cobey, Sarah; Beerli, Peter; Pascual, Mercedes

2010-01-01

The global migration patterns of influenza viruses have profound implications for the evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics of the disease. We developed a novel approach to reconstruct the genetic history of human influenza A (H3N2) collected worldwide over 1998 to 2009 and used it to infer the global network of influenza transmission. Consistent with previous models, we find that China and Southeast Asia lie at the center of this global network. However, we also find that strains of influenza circulate outside of Asia for multiple seasons, persisting through dynamic migration between northern and southern regions. The USA acts as the primary hub of temperate transmission and, together with China and Southeast Asia, forms the trunk of influenza's evolutionary tree. These findings suggest that antiviral use outside of China and Southeast Asia may lead to the evolution of long-term local and potentially global antiviral resistance. Our results might also aid the design of surveillance efforts and of vaccines better tailored to different geographic regions. PMID:20523898

Evolution of flux ropes in the magnetotail: A three-dimensional global hybrid simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, S.; State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing; Lin, Y.

2015-05-15

Flux ropes in the Earth's magnetotail are widely believed to play a crucial role in energy transport during substorms and the generation of energetic particles. Previous kinetic simulations are limited to the local-scale regime, and thus cannot be used to study the structure associated with the geomagnetic field and the global-scale evolution of the flux ropes. Here, the evolution of flux ropes in the magnetotail under a steady southward interplanetary magnetic field are studied with a newly developed three-dimensional global hybrid simulation model for dynamics ranging from the ion Larmor radius to the global convection time scales. Magnetic reconnection withmore » multiple X-lines is found to take place in the near-tail current sheet at geocentric solar magnetospheric distances x=−30R{sub E}∼−15R{sub E} around the equatorial plane (z=0). The magnetotail reconnection layer is turbulent, with a nonuniform structure and unsteady evolution, and exhibits properties of typical collisionless fast reconnection with the Hall effect. A number of small-scale flux ropes are generated through the multiple X-line reconnection. The diameter of the flux ropes is several R{sub E}, and the spatial scale of the flux ropes in the dawn-dusk direction is on the order of several R{sub E} and does not extend across the entire section of the magnetotail, contrary to previous models and MHD simulation results and showing the importance of the three-dimensional effects. The nonuniform and unsteady multiple X-line reconnection with particle kinetic effects leads to various kinds of flux rope evolution: The small-scale flux ropes propagate earthward or tailward after formation, and eventually merge into the near-Earth region or the mid-/distant-tail plasmoid, respectively. During the propagation, some of the flux ropes can be tilted in the geocentric solar magnetospheric (x,y) plane with respect to the y (dawn-dusk) axis. Coalescence between flux ropes is also observed. At the same time, the evolution of the flux ropes in the multiple X-line reconnection layer can also lead to the acceleration and heating of ions.« less

Trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus.

PubMed

Yan, Shao-Min; Wu, Guang

2009-12-01

The global warming is an important factor affecting the biological evolution, and the influenza is an important disease that threatens humans with possible epidemics or pandemics. In this study, we attempted to analyze the trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus, because this protein is a target of anti-flu drug, and its mutation would have significant effect on the resistance to anti-flu drugs. The evolution of matrix protein 2 of influenza A virus from 1959 to 2008 was defined using the unpredictable portion of amino-acid pair predictability. Then the trend in this evolution was compared with the trend in the global temperature, the temperature in north and south hemispheres, and the temperature in influenza A virus sampling site, and species carrying influenza A virus. The results showed the similar trends in global warming and in evolution of M2 proteins although we could not correlate them at this stage of study. The study suggested the potential impact of global warming on the evolution of proteins from influenza A virus.

Cooperation induces other cooperation: Fruiting bodies promote the evolution of macrocysts in Dictyostelium discoideum.

PubMed

Shibasaki, Shota; Shirokawa, Yuka; Shimada, Masakazu

2017-05-21

Biological studies of the evolution of cooperation are challenging because this process is vulnerable to cheating. Many mechanisms, including kin discrimination, spatial structure, or by-products of self-interested behaviors, can explain this evolution. Here we propose that the evolution of cooperation can be induced by other cooperation. To test this idea, we used a model organism Dictyostelium discoideum because it exhibits two cooperative dormant phases, the fruiting body and the macrocyst. In both phases, the same chemoattractant, cyclic AMP (cAMP), is used to collect cells. This common feature led us to hypothesize that the evolution of macrocyst formation would be induced by coexistence with fruiting bodies. Before forming a mathematical model, we confirmed that macrocysts coexisted with fruiting bodies, at least under laboratory conditions. Next, we analyzed our evolutionary game theory-based model to investigate whether coexistence with fruiting bodies would stabilize macrocyst formation. The model suggests that macrocyst formation represents an evolutionarily stable strategy and a global invader strategy under this coexistence, but is unstable if the model ignores the fruiting body formation. This result indicates that the evolution of macrocyst formation and maintenance is attributable to coexistence with fruiting bodies. Therefore, macrocyst evolution can be considered as an example of evolution of cooperation induced by other cooperation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolution of trace gases and particles emitted by a chaparral fire in California

Treesearch

S. K. Akagi; J. S. Craven; J. W. Taylor; G. R. McMeeking; R. J. Yokelson; I. R. Burling; S. P. Urbanski; C. E. Wold; J. H. Seinfeld; H. Coe; M. J. Alvarado; D. R. Weise

2012-01-01

Biomass burning (BB) is a major global source of trace gases and particles. Accurately representing the production and evolution of these emissions is an important goal for atmospheric chemical transport models. We measured a suite of gases and aerosols emitted from an 81 hectare prescribed fire in chaparral fuels on the central coast of California, US on 17 November...

A Thermodynamically-Based Mesh Objective Work Potential Theory for Predicting Intralaminar Progressive Damage and Failure in Fiber-Reinforced Laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pineda, Evan J.; Waas, Anthony M.

2012-01-01

A thermodynamically-based work potential theory for modeling progressive damage and failure in fiber-reinforced laminates is presented. The current, multiple-internal state variable (ISV) formulation, enhanced Schapery theory (EST), utilizes separate ISVs for modeling the effects of damage and failure. Damage is considered to be the effect of any structural changes in a material that manifest as pre-peak non-linearity in the stress versus strain response. Conversely, failure is taken to be the effect of the evolution of any mechanisms that results in post-peak strain softening. It is assumed that matrix microdamage is the dominant damage mechanism in continuous fiber-reinforced polymer matrix laminates, and its evolution is controlled with a single ISV. Three additional ISVs are introduced to account for failure due to mode I transverse cracking, mode II transverse cracking, and mode I axial failure. Typically, failure evolution (i.e., post-peak strain softening) results in pathologically mesh dependent solutions within a finite element method (FEM) setting. Therefore, consistent character element lengths are introduced into the formulation of the evolution of the three failure ISVs. Using the stationarity of the total work potential with respect to each ISV, a set of thermodynamically consistent evolution equations for the ISVs is derived. The theory is implemented into commercial FEM software. Objectivity of total energy dissipated during the failure process, with regards to refinements in the FEM mesh, is demonstrated. The model is also verified against experimental results from two laminated, T800/3900-2 panels containing a central notch and different fiber-orientation stacking sequences. Global load versus displacement, global load versus local strain gage data, and macroscopic failure paths obtained from the models are compared to the experiments.

Evolution of global contribution in multi-level threshold public goods games with insurance compensation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Jinming; Tang, Lixin

2018-01-01

Understanding voluntary contribution in threshold public goods games has important practical implications. To improve contributions and provision frequency, free-rider problem and assurance problem should be solved. Insurance could play a significant, but largely unrecognized, role in facilitating a contribution to provision of public goods through providing insurance compensation against the losses. In this paper, we study how insurance compensation mechanism affects individuals’ decision-making under risk environments. We propose a multi-level threshold public goods game model where two kinds of public goods games (local and global) are considered. Particularly, the global public goods game involves a threshold, which is related to the safety of all the players. We theoretically probe the evolution of contributions of different levels and free-riders, and focus on the influence of the insurance on the global contribution. We explore, in both the cases, the scenarios that only global contributors could buy insurance and all the players could. It is found that with greater insurance compensation, especially under high collective risks, players are more likely to contribute globally when only global contributors are insured. On the other hand, global contribution could be promoted if a premium discount is given to global contributors when everyone buys insurance.

Presenting Global Warming and Evolution as Public Health Issues to Encourage Acceptance of Scientific Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stover, Shawn K.; McArthur, Laurence B.; Mabry, Michelle L.

2013-01-01

Although evidence supporting anthropogenic global warming and evolution by natural selection is considerable, the public does not embrace these concepts. The current study explores the hypothesis that individuals will become more receptive to scientific viewpoints if evidence for evolution and implications of global warming are presented as issues…

Nonequilibrium dynamics of the O( N ) model on dS3 and AdS crunches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, S. Prem; Vaganov, Vladislav

2018-03-01

We study the nonperturbative quantum evolution of the interacting O( N ) vector model at large- N , formulated on a spatial two-sphere, with time dependent couplings which diverge at finite time. This model - the so-called "E-frame" theory, is related via a conformal transformation to the interacting O( N ) model in three dimensional global de Sitter spacetime with time independent couplings. We show that with a purely quartic, relevant deformation the quantum evolution of the E-frame model is regular even when the classical theory is rendered singular at the end of time by the diverging coupling. Time evolution drives the E-frame theory to the large- N Wilson-Fisher fixed point when the classical coupling diverges. We study the quantum evolution numerically for a variety of initial conditions and demonstrate the finiteness of the energy at the classical "end of time". With an additional (time dependent) mass deformation, quantum backreaction lowers the mass, with a putative smooth time evolution only possible in the limit of infinite quartic coupling. We discuss the relevance of these results for the resolution of crunch singularities in AdS geometries dual to E-frame theories with a classical gravity dual.

Evolution of the Bangalore ICT Cluster: The "Crystal Growth" Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Manimala, Mathew J.

2006-01-01

In about twenty years, starting in 1984, Bangalore has become the fourth best "Global Hub of Technological Innovation", according to Business Week. This article reviews the major milestones in Bangalore's development and the interactive roles of government, universities and private entrepreneurs. The author offers a new model: innovation…

Effect of specific pathways to 1.5°C global warming on the contribution of Greenland to sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Humbert, A.; Rückamp, M.; Falk, U.; Frieler, K.

2017-12-01

Sea level rise associated with changing climate is expected to pose a major challenge for societies. Here, we estimate the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea level change in terms of different emission scenarios. We investigate the effect of different pathways of global warming on the dynamics and mass balance of the GrIS with a focus on scenarios in line with limiting global warming to 2.0° or even 1.5° by the end of 2100 (Paris Agreement). We particularly address the issue of peak and decline scenarios temporarily exceeding a given temperature limit. This kind of overshooting might have strong effects on the evolution of the GrIS. Furthermore, we investigate the long-term effects of different levels of climate change to estimate the threshold for stabilizing the GrIS. For modeling the flow dynamics and future evolution of the GrIS, we apply the thermo-mechanical coupled Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). The model is forced with anomalies for temperature and surface mass balance derived from different GCM data from the CMIP5 RCP2.6 scenario provided from the ISIMIP2b project. In order to obtain these anomalies from the GCM data, a surface energy balance model is applied.

A model for the evolution of the Earth's mantle structure since the Early Paleozoic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Nan; Zhong, Shijie; Leng, Wei; Li, Zheng-Xiang

2010-06-01

Seismic tomography studies indicate that the Earth's mantle structure is characterized by African and Pacific seismically slow velocity anomalies (i.e., superplumes) and circum-Pacific seismically fast anomalies (i.e., a globally spherical harmonic degree 2 structure). However, the cause for and time evolution of the African and Pacific superplumes and the degree 2 mantle structure remain poorly understood with two competing proposals. First, the African and Pacific superplumes have remained largely unchanged for at least the last 300 Myr and possibly much longer. Second, the African superplume is formed sometime after the formation of Pangea (i.e., at 330 Ma) and the mantle in the African hemisphere is predominated by cold downwelling structures before and during the assembly of Pangea, while the Pacific superplume has been stable for the Pangea supercontinent cycle (i.e., globally a degree 1 structure before the Pangea formation). Here, we construct a proxy model of plate motions for the African hemisphere for the last 450 Myr since the Early Paleozoic using the paleogeographic reconstruction of continents constrained by paleomagnetic and geological observations. Coupled with assumed oceanic plate motions for the Pacific hemisphere, this proxy model for the plate motion history is used as time-dependent surface boundary condition in three-dimensional spherical models of thermochemical mantle convection to study the evolution of mantle structure, particularly the African mantle structure, since the Early Paleozoic. Our model calculations reproduce well the present-day mantle structure including the African and Pacific superplumes and generally support the second proposal with a dynamic cause for the superplume structure. Our results suggest that while the mantle in the African hemisphere before the assembly of Pangea is predominated by the cold downwelling structure resulting from plate convergence between Gondwana and Laurussia, it is unlikely that the bulk of the African superplume structure can be formed before ˜230 Ma (i.e., ˜100 Myr after the assembly of Pangea). Particularly, the last 120 Myr plate motion plays an important role in generating the African superplume. Our models have implications for understanding the global-scale magmatism, tectonics, mantle dynamics, and thermal evolution history for the Earth since the Early Paleozoic.

Explaining the luminosity spread in young clusters: proto and pre-main sequence stellar evolution in a molecular cloud environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, Sigurd S.; Haugbølle, Troels

2018-02-01

Hertzsprung-Russell diagrams of star-forming regions show a large luminosity spread. This is incompatible with well-defined isochrones based on classic non-accreting protostellar evolution models. Protostars do not evolve in isolation of their environment, but grow through accretion of gas. In addition, while an age can be defined for a star-forming region, the ages of individual stars in the region will vary. We show how the combined effect of a protostellar age spread, a consequence of sustained star formation in the molecular cloud, and time-varying protostellar accretion for individual protostars can explain the observed luminosity spread. We use a global magnetohydrodynamic simulation including a sub-scale sink particle model of a star-forming region to follow the accretion process of each star. The accretion profiles are used to compute stellar evolution models for each star, incorporating a model of how the accretion energy is distributed to the disc, radiated away at the accretion shock, or incorporated into the outer layers of the protostar. Using a modelled cluster age of 5 Myr, we naturally reproduce the luminosity spread and find good agreement with observations of the Collinder 69 cluster, and the Orion Nebular Cluster. It is shown how stars in binary and multiple systems can be externally forced creating recurrent episodic accretion events. We find that in a realistic global molecular cloud model massive stars build up mass over relatively long time-scales. This leads to an important conceptual change compared to the classic picture of non-accreting stellar evolution segmented into low-mass Hayashi tracks and high-mass Henyey tracks.

Plio-Pleistocene time evolution of the 100-ky cycle in marine paleoclimate records

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Park, Jeffrey; Maasch, Kirk A.

1992-01-01

To constrain theories for the dynamical evolution of global ice mass through the late Neogene, it is important to determine whether major changes in the record were gradual or rapid. Of particular interest is the evolution of the near 100-ky ice age cycle in the middle Pleistocene. We have applied a new technique based on multiple taper spectrum analysis which allows us to model the time evolution of quasi-periodic signals. This technique uses both phase and amplitude information, and enables us to address the question of abrupt versus gradual onset of the 100-ky periodicity in the middle Pleistocene.

The Evolution of Al Qaeda

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-06-15

Al Qaeda is a product of the forces of globalization. Increasing access to global finances , international travel, and sophisticated technology is...evolution. Al Qaeda is a product of the forces of globalization. Increasing access to global finances , international travel, and sophisticated technology...75 Finance

Holocene warming in western continental Eurasia driven by glacial retreat and greenhouse forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Jonathan L.; Lachniet, Matthew S.; Chervyatsova, Olga; Asmerom, Yemane; Polyak, Victor J.

2017-06-01

The global temperature evolution during the Holocene is poorly known. Whereas proxy data suggest that warm conditions prevailed in the Early to mid-Holocene with subsequent cooling, model reconstructions show long-term warming associated with ice-sheet retreat and rising greenhouse gas concentrations. One reason for this contradiction could be the under-representation of indicators for winter climate in current global proxy reconstructions. Here we present records of carbon and oxygen isotopes from two U-Th-dated stalagmites from Kinderlinskaya Cave in the southern Ural Mountains that document warming during the winter season from 11,700 years ago to the present. Our data are in line with the global Holocene temperature evolution reconstructed from transient model simulations. We interpret Eurasian winter warming during the Holocene as a response to the retreat of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets until about 7,000 years ago, and to rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and winter insolation thereafter. We attribute negative δ18O anomalies 11,000 and 8,200 years ago to enhanced meltwater forcing of North Atlantic Ocean circulation, and a rapid decline of δ13C during the Early Holocene with stabilization after about 10,000 years ago to afforestation at our study site. We conclude that winter climate dynamics dominated Holocene temperature evolution in the continental interior of Eurasia, in contrast to regions more proximal to the ocean.

Using the CARDAMOM framework to retrieve global terrestrial ecosystem functioning properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Exbrayat, Jean-François; Bloom, A. Anthony; Smallman, T. Luke; van der Velde, Ivar R.; Feng, Liang; Williams, Mathew

2016-04-01

Terrestrial ecosystems act as a sink for anthropogenic emissions of fossil-fuel and thereby partially offset the ongoing global warming. However, recent model benchmarking and intercomparison studies have highlighted the non-trivial uncertainties that exist in our understanding of key ecosystem properties like plant carbon allocation and residence times. It leads to worrisome differences in terrestrial carbon stocks simulated by Earth system models, and their evolution in a warming future. In this presentation we attempt to provide global insights on these properties by merging an ecosystem model with remotely-sensed global observations of leaf area and biomass through a data-assimilation system: the CARbon Data MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM). CARDAMOM relies on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to retrieve confidence intervals of model parameters that regulate ecosystem properties independently of any prior land-cover information. The MCMC method thereby enables an explicit representation of the uncertainty in land-atmosphere fluxes and the evolution of terrestrial carbon stocks through time. Global experiments are performed for the first decade of the 21st century using a 1°×1° spatial resolution. Relationships emerge globally between key ecosystem properties. For example, our analyses indicate that leaf lifespan and leaf mass per area are highly correlated. Furthermore, there exists a latitudinal gradient in allocation patterns: high latitude ecosystems allocate more carbon to photosynthetic carbon (leaves) while plants invest more carbon in their structural parts (wood and root) in the wet tropics. Overall, the spatial distribution of these ecosystem properties does not correspond to usual land-cover maps and are also partially correlated with disturbance regimes. For example, fire-prone ecosystems present statistically significant higher values of carbon use efficiency than less disturbed ecosystems experiencing similar climatic conditions. These results raise concerns on the suitability of the plant functional type paradigm for terrestrial carbon cycling.

Automatic 3D liver segmentation based on deep learning and globally optimized surface evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Peijun; Wu, Fa; Peng, Jialin; Liang, Ping; Kong, Dexing

2016-12-01

The detection and delineation of the liver from abdominal 3D computed tomography (CT) images are fundamental tasks in computer-assisted liver surgery planning. However, automatic and accurate segmentation, especially liver detection, remains challenging due to complex backgrounds, ambiguous boundaries, heterogeneous appearances and highly varied shapes of the liver. To address these difficulties, we propose an automatic segmentation framework based on 3D convolutional neural network (CNN) and globally optimized surface evolution. First, a deep 3D CNN is trained to learn a subject-specific probability map of the liver, which gives the initial surface and acts as a shape prior in the following segmentation step. Then, both global and local appearance information from the prior segmentation are adaptively incorporated into a segmentation model, which is globally optimized in a surface evolution way. The proposed method has been validated on 42 CT images from the public Sliver07 database and local hospitals. On the Sliver07 online testing set, the proposed method can achieve an overall score of 80.3+/- 4.5 , yielding a mean Dice similarity coefficient of 97.25+/- 0.65 % , and an average symmetric surface distance of 0.84+/- 0.25 mm. The quantitative validations and comparisons show that the proposed method is accurate and effective for clinical application.

Constraints on the thermal evolution of Venus inferred from Magellan data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arkani-Hamed, J.; Schaber, G. G.; Strom, R. G.

1993-03-01

One interpretation of the Magellan data suggests that the cratering record on Venus was erased by a global resurfacing event, or events, the latest ending about 500 m.y. ago. In this global-resurfacing model the resurfacing was followed by minor volcanism and tectonism that has been concentrated primarily in the equatorial highland regions characterized by extensive fracture belts and rifts. A thermal evolution model of Venus that can explain these observations is one in which a deformable lithosphere, capable of being incorporated in mantle circulations, provides an almost stress-free condition at the surface. Mantle convection with an almost stress-free boundary at the surface cools the interior more efficiently. Rapid cooling decreases the Rayleigh number of mantle convection below a transition value required for oscillatory convection, and the vigor of convection diminishes as the mantle changes to a quasi-steady circulation after about 500 m.y. ago.

Global-scale combustion sources of organic aerosols: sensitivity to formation and removal mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsimpidi, Alexandra P.; Karydis, Vlassis A.; Pandis, Spyros N.; Lelieveld, Jos

2017-06-01

Organic compounds from combustion sources such as biomass burning and fossil fuel use are major contributors to the global atmospheric load of aerosols. We analyzed the sensitivity of model-predicted global-scale organic aerosols (OA) to parameters that control primary emissions, photochemical aging, and the scavenging efficiency of organic vapors. We used a computationally efficient module for the description of OA composition and evolution in the atmosphere (ORACLE) of the global chemistry-climate model EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry). A global dataset of aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) measurements was used to evaluate simulated primary (POA) and secondary (SOA) OA concentrations. Model results are sensitive to the emission rates of intermediate-volatility organic compounds (IVOCs) and POA. Assuming enhanced reactivity of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) and IVOCs with OH substantially improved the model performance for SOA. The use of a hybrid approach for the parameterization of the aging of IVOCs had a small effect on predicted SOA levels. The model performance improved by assuming that freshly emitted organic compounds are relatively hydrophobic and become increasingly hygroscopic due to oxidation.

TRANSPORT BY MERIDIONAL CIRCULATIONS IN SOLAR-TYPE STARS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, T. S.; Brummell, N. H., E-mail: tsw25@soe.ucsc.edu

2012-08-20

Transport by meridional flows has significant consequences for stellar evolution, but is difficult to capture in global-scale numerical simulations because of the wide range of timescales involved. Stellar evolution models therefore usually adopt parameterizations for such transport based on idealized laminar or mean-field models. Unfortunately, recent attempts to model this transport in global simulations have produced results that are not consistent with any of these idealized models. In an effort to explain the discrepancies between global simulations and idealized models, here we use three-dimensional local Cartesian simulations of compressible convection to study the efficiency of transport by meridional flows belowmore » a convection zone in several parameter regimes of relevance to the Sun and solar-type stars. In these local simulations we are able to establish the correct ordering of dynamical timescales, although the separation of the timescales remains unrealistic. We find that, even though the generation of internal waves by convective overshoot produces a high degree of time dependence in the meridional flow field, the mean flow has the qualitative behavior predicted by laminar, 'balanced' models. In particular, we observe a progressive deepening, or 'burrowing', of the mean circulation if the local Eddington-Sweet timescale is shorter than the viscous diffusion timescale. Such burrowing is a robust prediction of laminar models in this parameter regime, but has never been observed in any previous numerical simulation. We argue that previous simulations therefore underestimate the transport by meridional flows.« less

Stochastic Lotka-Volterra equations: A model of lagged diffusion of technology in an interconnected world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakrabarti, Anindya S.

2016-01-01

We present a model of technological evolution due to interaction between multiple countries and the resultant effects on the corresponding macro variables. The world consists of a set of economies where some countries are leaders and some are followers in the technology ladder. All of them potentially gain from technological breakthroughs. Applying Lotka-Volterra (LV) equations to model evolution of the technology frontier, we show that the way technology diffuses creates repercussions in the partner economies. This process captures the spill-over effects on major macro variables seen in the current highly globalized world due to trickle-down effects of technology.

Self-Consistent Ring Current Modeling with Propagating Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves in the Presence of Heavy Ions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khazanov, George V.

2006-01-01

The self-consistent treatment of the RC ion dynamics and EMIC waves, which are thought to exert important influences on the ion dynamical evolution, is an important missing element in our understanding of the storm-and recovery-time ring current evolution. Under certain conditions, relativistic electrons, with energies 21 MeV, can be removed from the outer radiation belt by EMIC wave scattering during a magnetic storm. That is why the modeling of EMIC waves is critical and timely issue in magnetospheric physics. To describe the RC evolution itself this study uses the ring current-atmosphere interaction model (RAM). RAM solves the gyration and bounce-averaged Boltzmann-Landau equation inside of geosynchronous orbit. Originally developed at the University of Michigan, there are now several branches of this model currently in use as describe by Liemohn namely those at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center This study will generalize the self-consistent theoretical description of RC ions and EMIC waves that has been developed by Khazanov and include the heavy ions and propagation effects of EMIC waves in the global dynamic of self-consistent RC - EMIC waves coupling. The results of our newly developed model that will be presented at GEM meeting, focusing mainly on the dynamic of EMIC waves and comparison of these results with the previous global RC modeling studies devoted to EMIC waves formation. We also discuss RC ion precipitations and wave induced thermal electron fluxes into the ionosphere.

Empirical Modeling of the Plasmasphere Dynamics Using Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhelavskaya, I. S.; Shprits, Y.; Spasojevic, M.

2017-12-01

We present a new empirical model for reconstructing the global dynamics of the cold plasma density distribution based only on solar wind data and geomagnetic indices. Utilizing the density database obtained using the NURD (Neural-network-based Upper hybrid Resonance Determination) algorithm for the period of October 1, 2012 - July 1, 2016, in conjunction with solar wind data and geomagnetic indices, we develop a neural network model that is capable of globally reconstructing the dynamics of the cold plasma density distribution for 2 ≤ L ≤ 6 and all local times. We validate and test the model by measuring its performance on independent datasets withheld from the training set and by comparing the model predicted global evolution with global images of He+ distribution in the Earth's plasmasphere from the IMAGE Extreme UltraViolet (EUV) instrument. We identify the parameters that best quantify the plasmasphere dynamics by training and comparing multiple neural networks with different combinations of input parameters (geomagnetic indices, solar wind data, and different durations of their time history). We demonstrate results of both local and global plasma density reconstruction. This study illustrates how global dynamics can be reconstructed from local in-situ observations by using machine learning techniques.

Coupled local facilitation and global hydrologic inhibition drive landscape geometry in a patterned peatland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acharya, S.; Kaplan, D. A.; Casey, S.; Cohen, M. J.; Jawitz, J. W.

2015-05-01

Self-organized landscape patterning can arise in response to multiple processes. Discriminating among alternative patterning mechanisms, particularly where experimental manipulations are untenable, requires process-based models. Previous modeling studies have attributed patterning in the Everglades (Florida, USA) to sediment redistribution and anisotropic soil hydraulic properties. In this work, we tested an alternate theory, the self-organizing-canal (SOC) hypothesis, by developing a cellular automata model that simulates pattern evolution via local positive feedbacks (i.e., facilitation) coupled with a global negative feedback based on hydrology. The model is forced by global hydroperiod that drives stochastic transitions between two patch types: ridge (higher elevation) and slough (lower elevation). We evaluated model performance using multiple criteria based on six statistical and geostatistical properties observed in reference portions of the Everglades landscape: patch density, patch anisotropy, semivariogram ranges, power-law scaling of ridge areas, perimeter area fractal dimension, and characteristic pattern wavelength. Model results showed strong statistical agreement with reference landscapes, but only when anisotropically acting local facilitation was coupled with hydrologic global feedback, for which several plausible mechanisms exist. Critically, the model correctly generated fractal landscapes that had no characteristic pattern wavelength, supporting the invocation of global rather than scale-specific negative feedbacks.

Coupled local facilitation and global hydrologic inhibition drive landscape geometry in a patterned peatland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acharya, S.; Kaplan, D. A.; Casey, S.; Cohen, M. J.; Jawitz, J. W.

2015-01-01

Self-organized landscape patterning can arise in response to multiple processes. Discriminating among alternative patterning mechanisms, particularly where experimental manipulations are untenable, requires process-based models. Previous modeling studies have attributed patterning in the Everglades (Florida, USA) to sediment redistribution and anisotropic soil hydraulic properties. In this work, we tested an alternate theory, the self-organizing canal (SOC) hypothesis, by developing a cellular automata model that simulates pattern evolution via local positive feedbacks (i.e., facilitation) coupled with a global negative feedback based on hydrology. The model is forced by global hydroperiod that drives stochastic transitions between two patch types: ridge (higher elevation) and slough (lower elevation). We evaluated model performance using multiple criteria based on six statistical and geostatistical properties observed in reference portions of the Everglades landscape: patch density, patch anisotropy, semivariogram ranges, power-law scaling of ridge areas, perimeter area fractal dimension, and characteristic pattern wavelength. Model results showed strong statistical agreement with reference landscapes, but only when anisotropically acting local facilitation was coupled with hydrologic global feedback, for which several plausible mechanisms exist. Critically, the model correctly generated fractal landscapes that had no characteristic pattern wavelength, supporting the invocation of global rather than scale-specific negative feedbacks.

Global Three-dimensional Simulation of the Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Interaction Using a Two-way Coupled Magnetohydrodynamics with Embedded Particle-in-Cell Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Y.; Toth, G.; Cassak, P.; Jia, X.; Gombosi, T. I.; Slavin, J. A.; Welling, D. T.; Markidis, S.; Peng, I. B.; Jordanova, V. K.; Henderson, M. G.

2017-12-01

We perform a three-dimensional (3D) global simulation of Earth's magnetosphere with kinetic reconnection physics to study the interaction between the solar wind and Earth's magnetosphere. In this global simulation with magnetohydrodynamics with embedded particle-in-cell model (MHD-EPIC), both the dayside magnetopause reconnection region and the magnetotail reconnection region are covered with a kinetic particle-in-cell code iPIC3D, which is two-way coupled with the global MHD model BATS-R-US. We will describe the dayside reconnection related phenomena, such as the lower hybrid drift instability (LHDI) and the evolution of the flux transfer events (FTEs) along the magnetopause, and compare the simulation results with observations. We will also discuss the response of the magnetotail to the southward IMF. The onset of the tail reconnection and the properties of the magnetotail flux ropes will be discussed.

Virus replication as a phenotypic version of polynucleotide evolution.

PubMed

Antoneli, Fernando; Bosco, Francisco; Castro, Diogo; Janini, Luiz Mario

2013-04-01

In this paper, we revisit and adapt to viral evolution an approach based on the theory of branching process advanced by Demetrius et al. (Bull. Math. Biol. 46:239-262, 1985), in their study of polynucleotide evolution. By taking into account beneficial effects, we obtain a non-trivial multivariate generalization of their single-type branching process model. Perturbative techniques allows us to obtain analytical asymptotic expressions for the main global parameters of the model, which lead to the following rigorous results: (i) a new criterion for "no sure extinction", (ii) a generalization and proof, for this particular class of models, of the lethal mutagenesis criterion proposed by Bull et al. (J. Virol. 18:2930-2939, 2007), (iii) a new proposal for the notion of relaxation time with a quantitative prescription for its evaluation, (iv) the quantitative description of the evolution of the expected values in four distinct "stages": extinction threshold, lethal mutagenesis, stationary "equilibrium", and transient. Finally, based on these quantitative results, we are able to draw some qualitative conclusions.

Berkeley's New Approach to Global Engagement: Early and Current Efforts to Become More International. Research & Occasional Paper Series: CSHE.12.15

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dirks, Nicholas B.; Gilman, Nils

2015-01-01

This essay discusses past and current thinking about the globalization of higher education (from a U.S. point of view in particular) and a new model we are attempting to develop at the University of California, Berkeley. This essay begins with a brief narrative of the historical evolution of efforts to internationalize education, from the…

Evolution in Cloud Population Statistics of the MJO: From AMIE Field Observations to Global Cloud-Permiting Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Chidong

Motivated by the success of the AMIE/DYNAMO field campaign, which collected unprecedented observations of cloud and precipitation from the tropical Indian Ocean in Octber 2011 – March 2012, this project explored how such observations can be applied to assist the development of global cloud-permitting models through evaluating and correcting model biases in cloud statistics. The main accomplishment of this project were made in four categories: generating observational products for model evaluation, using AMIE/DYNAMO observations to validate global model simulations, using AMIE/DYNAMO observations in numerical studies of cloud-permitting models, and providing leadership in the field. Results from this project provide valuablemore » information for building a seamless bridge between DOE ASR program’s component on process level understanding of cloud processes in the tropics and RGCM focus on global variability and regional extremes. In particular, experience gained from this project would be directly applicable to evaluation and improvements of ACME, especially as it transitions to a non-hydrostatic variable resolution model.« less

Globalizing Lessons Learned from Regional-scale Observatories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glenn, S. M.

2016-02-01

The Mid Atlantic Regional Association Coastal Ocean Observing System (MARACOOS) has accumulated a decade of experience designing, building and operating a Regional Coastal Ocean Observing System for the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS). MARACOOS serves societal goals and supports scientific discovery at the scale of a Large Marine Ecosystem (LME). Societal themes include maritime safety, ecosystem decision support, coastal inundation, water quality and offshore energy. Scientific results that feed back on societal goals with better products include improved understanding of seasonal transport pathways and their impact on phytoplankton blooms and hypoxia, seasonal evolution of the subsurface Mid Atlantic Cold Pool and its impact on fisheries, biogeochemical transformations in coastal plumes, coastal ocean evolution and impact on hurricane intensities, and storm sediment transport pathways. As the global ocean observing requirements grow to support additional societal needs for information on fisheries and aquaculture, ocean acidification and deoxygenation, water quality and offshore development, global observing will necessarily evolve to include more coastal observations and forecast models at the scale of the world's many LMEs. Here we describe our efforts to share lessons learned between the observatory operators at the regional-scale of the LMEs. Current collaborators are spread across Europe, and also include Korea, Indonesia, Australia, Brazil and South Africa. Specific examples include the development of a world standard QA/QC approach for HF Radar data that will foster the sharing of data between countries, basin-scale underwater glider missions between internationally-distributed glider ports to developed a shared understanding of operations and an ongoing evaluation of the global ocean models in which the regional models for the LME will be nested, and joint training programs to develop the distributed teams of scientists and technicians required to support the global network. Globalization includes the development of international networks to coordinate activities, such as the Global HF Radar network supported by GEO, the global Everyone's Glider Organization supported by WMO and IOC, and the need for professional training supported by MTS.

Statistics of certain models of evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Standish, Russell K.

1999-02-01

In a recent paper, Newman [J. Theo. Bio. 189, 235 (1997)] surveys the literature on power law spectra in evolution, self-organized criticality and presents a model of his own to arrive at a conclusion that self-organized criticality is not necessary for evolution. Not only did he miss a key model (Ecolab) that has a clear self-organized critical mechanism, but also Newman's model exhibits the same mechanism that gives rise to power law behavior, as does Ecolab. Newman's model is, in fact, a ``mean field'' approximation of a self-organized critical system. In this paper, I have also implemented Newman's model using the Ecolab software, removing the restriction that the number of species must remain constant. It turns out that the requirement of constant species number is nontrivial, leading to a global coupling between species that is similar in effect to the species interactions seen in Ecolab. In fact, the model must self-organize to a state where the long time average of speciations balances that of the extinctions; otherwise, the system either collapses or explodes. In view of this, Newman's model does not provide the hoped-for counterexample to the presence of self-organized criticality in evolution, but does provide a simple, almost analytic model that can be used to understand more intricate models such as Ecolab.

Coupling landscapes to solid-Earth deformation over the ice-age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pico, T.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Ferrier, K.; Braun, J.

2016-12-01

We present initial results of a coupled ice-age sea level - landscape evolution code. Deformation of the solid Earth in response to the growth and ablation of continental ice sheets produces spatially-variable patterns of sea-level change. Recent modeling has considered the impact of sedimentation and erosion on sea level predictions across the last glacial cycle, but these studies have imposed, a-priori, a record of sediment flux and erosion, rather than computing them from a physics-based model of landscape evolution in the presence of sea-level (topography) changes. These topography changes range from 1-10 m/kyr in the near and intermediate field of the Late Pleistocene ice cover, and are thus comparable to (or exceed) tectonic rates in such regions. Our simulations aim to address the following question: how does solid-Earth deformation influence the evolution of landscapes over glacial periods? To address this issue, we couple a highly-efficient landscape evolution code, Fastscape (Braun & Willett, 2013), to a global, gravitationally-self consistent sea-level theory. Fastscape adopts standard geomorphic laws governing incision and marine deposition, and the sea-level model is based on the canonical work of Farrell & Clark (1976), with extensions to include the effects of rotation and time varying shoreline geometries (Kendall et al., 2005), and sediment erosion and deposition (Dalca et al, 2013). We will present global results and focus on a few regional case studies where deposition rates from a dataset of sedimentary cores can be used as a check on the simulations. These predictions quantify the influence of sea-level change (including that associated with sedimentation and erosion) on geomorphic drivers of landscape evolution, and in turn, the solid Earth deformation caused by these surface processes over an ice age.

Possible impact of global warming on the evolution of hemagglutinins from influenza a viruses.

PubMed

Yan, Shaomin; Wu, Guang

2011-02-01

To determine if global warming has an impact on the evolution of hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses, because both global warming and influenza pandemics/epidemics threaten the world. 4 706 hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses sampled from 1956 to 2009 were converted to a time-series to show their evolutionary process and compared with the global, northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere temperatures, to determine if their trends run in similar or opposite directions. Point-to-point comparisons between temperature and quantified hemagglutinins were performed for all species and for the major prevailing species. The comparisons show that the trends for both hemagglutinin evolution and temperature change run in a similar direction. Global warming has a consistent and progressive impact on the hemagglutinin evolution of influenza A viruses.

Comparative empirical analysis of flow-weighted transit route networks in R-space and evolution modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ailing; Zang, Guangzhi; He, Zhengbing; Guan, Wei

2017-05-01

Urban public transit system is a typical mixed complex network with dynamic flow, and its evolution should be a process coupling topological structure with flow dynamics, which has received little attention. This paper presents the R-space to make a comparative empirical analysis on Beijing’s flow-weighted transit route network (TRN) and we found that both the Beijing’s TRNs in the year of 2011 and 2015 exhibit the scale-free properties. As such, we propose an evolution model driven by flow to simulate the development of TRNs with consideration of the passengers’ dynamical behaviors triggered by topological change. The model simulates that the evolution of TRN is an iterative process. At each time step, a certain number of new routes are generated driven by travel demands, which leads to dynamical evolution of new routes’ flow and triggers perturbation in nearby routes that will further impact the next round of opening new routes. We present the theoretical analysis based on the mean-field theory, as well as the numerical simulation for this model. The results obtained agree well with our empirical analysis results, which indicate that our model can simulate the TRN evolution with scale-free properties for distributions of node’s strength and degree. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the global evolutional mechanism of transit network that will be used to exploit planning and design strategies for real TRNs.

Regulation, Competition and Network Evolution in Aviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gillen, David; Morrison, William

2003-01-01

Our focus is the evolution of business strategies and network structure decisions in the commercial passenger aviation industry. The paper reviews the growth of hub-and-spoke networks as the dominant business model following deregulation in the latter part of the 20 century, followed by the emergence of value-based airlines as a global phenomenon at the end of the century. The paper highlights the link between airline business strategies and network structures, and examines the resulting competition between divergent network structure business models. In this context we discuss issues of market structure stability and the role played by competition policy.

Anomalous evolution of Ar metastable density with electron density in high density Ar discharge

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Park, Min; Chang, Hong-Young; You, Shin-Jae

2011-10-15

Recently, an anomalous evolution of argon metastable density with plasma discharge power (electron density) was reported [A. M. Daltrini, S. A. Moshkalev, T. J. Morgan, R. B. Piejak, and W. G. Graham, Appl. Phys. Lett. 92, 061504 (2008)]. Although the importance of the metastable atom and its density has been reported in a lot of literature, however, a basic physics behind the anomalous evolution of metastable density has not been clearly understood yet. In this study, we investigated a simple global model to elucidate the underlying physics of the anomalous evolution of argon metastable density with the electron density. Onmore » the basis of the proposed simple model, we reproduced the anomalous evolution of the metastable density and disclosed the detailed physics for the anomalous result. Drastic changes of dominant mechanisms for the population and depopulation processes of Ar metastable atoms with electron density, which take place even in relatively low electron density regime, is the clue to understand the result.« less

The global evolution of the primordial solar nebula

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruden, S. P.; Lin, D. N. C.

1986-01-01

Complete radial, time-dependent calculations of the structure and evolution of the primordial solar nebula during the viscous diffusion stage are presented. The viscous stress is derived from analytic one-zone models of the vertical nebular structure based on detailed grain opacities. Comparisons with full numerical integrations indicate that the effective viscous alpha parameter is about 0.01. The evolution time of a minimum mass nebula is one-million yr or less. The flow pattern of fluid elements in the disk is examined and the implications the results have on the theory of the formation of the solar system are discussed.

Multidimensional Simulations of Filament Channel Structure and Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karpen, J. T.

2007-10-01

Over the past decade, the NRL Solar Theory group has made steady progress toward formulating a comprehensive model of filament-channel structure and evolution, combining the results of our sheared 3D arcade model for the magnetic field with our thermal nonequilibrium model for the cool, dense material suspended in the corona. We have also discovered that, when a sheared arcade is embedded within the global dipolar field, the resulting stressed filament channel can erupt through the mechanism of magnetic breakout. Our progress has been largely enabled by the development and implementation of state-of-the-art 1D hydrodynamic and 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) codes to simulate the field-aligned plasma thermodynamics and large-scale magnetic-field evolution, respectively. Significant questions remain, however, which could be answered with the advanced observations anticipated from Solar-B. In this review, we summarize what we have learned from our simulations about the magnetic and plasma structure, evolution, and eruption of filament channels, and suggest key observational objectives for Solar-B that will test our filament-channel and CME-initiation models and augment our understanding of the underlying physical processes.

Characterizing Middle Atmospheric Dynamical Variability and its Impact on the Thermosphere/Ionosphere System During Recent Stratospheric Sudden Warmings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCormack, J. P.; Sassi, F.; Hoppel, K.; Ma, J.; Eckermann, S. D.

2015-12-01

We investigate the evolution of neutral atmospheric dynamics in the 10-100 km altitude range before, during, and after recent stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) using a prototype high-altitude version of the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM), which combines a 4-dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation system with a 3-time-level semi-Lagrangian semi-implicit global forecast model. In addition to assimilating conventional meteorological observations, NAVGEM also assimilates middle atmospheric temperature and constituent observations from both operational and research satellite platforms to provide global synoptic meteorological analyses of winds, temperatures, ozone, and water vapor from the surface to ~90 km. In this study, NAVGEM analyses are used to diagnose the spatial and temporal evolution of the main dynamical drivers in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) before, during, and after specific SSW events during the 2009-2013 period when large disturbances were observed in the thermosphere/ionosphere (TI) region. Preliminary findings show strong modulation of the semidiurnal tide in the MLT during the onset of an SSW. To assess the impact of the neutral atmosphere dynamical variability on the TI system, NAVGEM analyses are used to constrain simulations of select SSW events using the specified dynamics (SD) configuration of the extended Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM-X).

Whole-mantle convection with tectonic plates preserves long-term global patterns of upper mantle geochemistry.

PubMed

Barry, T L; Davies, J H; Wolstencroft, M; Millar, I L; Zhao, Z; Jian, P; Safonova, I; Price, M

2017-05-12

The evolution of the planetary interior during plate tectonics is controlled by slow convection within the mantle. Global-scale geochemical differences across the upper mantle are known, but how they are preserved during convection has not been adequately explained. We demonstrate that the geographic patterns of chemical variations around the Earth's mantle endure as a direct result of whole-mantle convection within largely isolated cells defined by subducting plates. New 3D spherical numerical models embedded with the latest geological paleo-tectonic reconstructions and ground-truthed with new Hf-Nd isotope data, suggest that uppermost mantle at one location (e.g. under Indian Ocean) circulates down to the core-mantle boundary (CMB), but returns within ≥100 Myrs via large-scale convection to its approximate starting location. Modelled tracers pool at the CMB but do not disperse ubiquitously around it. Similarly, mantle beneath the Pacific does not spread to surrounding regions of the planet. The models fit global patterns of isotope data and may explain features such as the DUPAL anomaly and long-standing differences between Indian and Pacific Ocean crust. Indeed, the geochemical data suggests this mode of convection could have influenced the evolution of mantle composition since 550 Ma and potentially since the onset of plate tectonics.

Plant domestication slows pest evolution.

PubMed

Turcotte, Martin M; Lochab, Amaneet K; Turley, Nash E; Johnson, Marc T J

2015-09-01

Agricultural practices such as breeding resistant varieties and pesticide use can cause rapid evolution of pest species, but it remains unknown how plant domestication itself impacts pest contemporary evolution. Using experimental evolution on a comparative phylogenetic scale, we compared the evolutionary dynamics of a globally important economic pest - the green peach aphid (Myzus persicae) - growing on 34 plant taxa, represented by 17 crop species and their wild relatives. Domestication slowed aphid evolution by 13.5%, maintained 10.4% greater aphid genotypic diversity and 5.6% higher genotypic richness. The direction of evolution (i.e. which genotypes increased in frequency) differed among independent domestication events but was correlated with specific plant traits. Individual-based simulation models suggested that domestication affects aphid evolution directly by reducing the strength of selection and indirectly by increasing aphid density and thus weakening genetic drift. Our results suggest that phenotypic changes during domestication can alter pest evolutionary dynamics. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

On the Global Regularity of a Helical-Decimated Version of the 3D Navier-Stokes Equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biferale, Luca; Titi, Edriss S.

2013-06-01

We study the global regularity, for all time and all initial data in H 1/2, of a recently introduced decimated version of the incompressible 3D Navier-Stokes (dNS) equations. The model is based on a projection of the dynamical evolution of Navier-Stokes (NS) equations into the subspace where helicity (the L 2-scalar product of velocity and vorticity) is sign-definite. The presence of a second (beside energy) sign-definite inviscid conserved quadratic quantity, which is equivalent to the H 1/2-Sobolev norm, allows us to demonstrate global existence and uniqueness, of space-periodic solutions, together with continuity with respect to the initial conditions, for this decimated 3D model. This is achieved thanks to the establishment of two new estimates, for this 3D model, which show that the H 1/2 and the time average of the square of the H 3/2 norms of the velocity field remain finite. Such two additional bounds are known, in the spirit of the work of H. Fujita and T. Kato (Arch. Ration. Mech. Anal. 16:269-315, 1964; Rend. Semin. Mat. Univ. Padova 32:243-260, 1962), to be sufficient for showing well-posedness for the 3D NS equations. Furthermore, they are directly linked to the helicity evolution for the dNS model, and therefore with a clear physical meaning and consequences.

An efficient algorithm for global periodic orbits generation near irregular-shaped asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shang, Haibin; Wu, Xiaoyu; Ren, Yuan; Shan, Jinjun

2017-07-01

Periodic orbits (POs) play an important role in understanding dynamical behaviors around natural celestial bodies. In this study, an efficient algorithm was presented to generate the global POs around irregular-shaped uniformly rotating asteroids. The algorithm was performed in three steps, namely global search, local refinement, and model continuation. First, a mascon model with a low number of particles and optimized mass distribution was constructed to remodel the exterior gravitational potential of the asteroid. Using this model, a multi-start differential evolution enhanced with a deflection strategy with strong global exploration and bypassing abilities was adopted. This algorithm can be regarded as a search engine to find multiple globally optimal regions in which potential POs were located. This was followed by applying a differential correction to locally refine global search solutions and generate the accurate POs in the mascon model in which an analytical Jacobian matrix was derived to improve convergence. Finally, the concept of numerical model continuation was introduced and used to convert the POs from the mascon model into a high-fidelity polyhedron model by sequentially correcting the initial states. The efficiency of the proposed algorithm was substantiated by computing the global POs around an elongated shoe-shaped asteroid 433 Eros. Various global POs with different topological structures in the configuration space were successfully located. Specifically, the proposed algorithm was generic and could be conveniently extended to explore periodic motions in other gravitational systems.

Comment on ''Effects of long-term high CO2 exposure on two species of coccolithophore'' by Müller et al. (2010)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, S.

2010-07-01

Populations can respond to environmental change over tens or hundreds of generations by shifts in phenotype that can be the result of a sustained physiological response, evolutionary (genetic) change, shifts in community composition, or some combination of these factors. Microbes evolve on human timescales, and evolution may contribute to marine phytoplankton responses to global change over the coming decades. However, it is still unknown whether evolutionary responses are likely to contribute significantly to phenotypic change in marine microbial communities under high pCO2 regimes or other aspects of global change. Recent work by Müller et al. (2010) highlights that long-term responses of marine microbes to global change must be empirically measured and the underlying cause of changes in phenotype explained. Here, I briefly discuss how tools from experimental microbial evolution may be used to detect and measure evolutionary responses in marine phytoplankton grown in high CO2 environments and other environments of interest. I outline why the particular biology of marine microbes makes conventional experimental evolution challenging right now and make a case that marine microbes are good candidates for the development of new model systems in experimental evolution. I suggest that "black box" frameworks that focus on partitioning phenotypic change, such as the Price equation, may be useful in cases where direct measurements of evolutionary responses alone are difficult, and that such approaches could be used to test hypotheses about the underlying causes of phenotypic shifts in marine microbe communities responding to global change.

Comparisons between stellar models and reliability of the theoretical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebreton, Yveline; Montalbán, Josefina

2010-07-01

The high quality of the asteroseismic data provided by space missions such as CoRoT (Michel et al. in The CoRoT Mission, ESA Spec. Publ. vol. 1306, p. 39, 2006) or expected from new operating missions such as Kepler (Christensen-Dalsgaard et al. in Commun. Asteroseismol. 150:350, 2007) requires the capacity of stellar evolution codes to provide accurate models whose numerical precision is better than the expected observational errors (i.e. below 0.1 μHz on the frequencies in the case of CoRoT). We present a review of some thorough comparisons of stellar models produced by different evolution codes, involved in the CoRoT/ESTA activities (Monteiro in Evolution and Seismic Tools for Stellar Astrophysics, 2009). We examine the numerical aspects of the computations as well as the effects of different implementations of the same physics on the global quantities, physical structure and oscillations properties of the stellar models. We also discuss a few aspects of the input physics.

Global regularizing flows with topology preservation for active contours and polygons.

PubMed

Sundaramoorthi, Ganesh; Yezzi, Anthony

2007-03-01

Active contour and active polygon models have been used widely for image segmentation. In some applications, the topology of the object(s) to be detected from an image is known a priori, despite a complex unknown geometry, and it is important that the active contour or polygon maintain the desired topology. In this work, we construct a novel geometric flow that can be added to image-based evolutions of active contours and polygons in order to preserve the topology of the initial contour or polygon. We emphasize that, unlike other methods for topology preservation, the proposed geometric flow continually adjusts the geometry of the original evolution in a gradual and graceful manner so as to prevent a topology change long before the curve or polygon becomes close to topology change. The flow also serves as a global regularity term for the evolving contour, and has smoothness properties similar to curvature flow. These properties of gradually adjusting the original flow and global regularization prevent geometrical inaccuracies common with simple discrete topology preservation schemes. The proposed topology preserving geometric flow is the gradient flow arising from an energy that is based on electrostatic principles. The evolution of a single point on the contour depends on all other points of the contour, which is different from traditional curve evolutions in the computer vision literature.

The star formation history of low-mass disk galaxies: A case study of NGC 300

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Xiaoyu; Zhang, Fenghui; Chang, Ruixiang; Wang, Lang; Cheng, Liantao

2016-01-01

Context. Since NGC 300 is a bulgeless, isolated low-mass galaxy and it has not experienced radial migration during its evolution history, it can be treated as an ideal laboratory to test the simple galactic chemical evolution model. Aims: Our main aim is to investigate the main properties of the star formation history (SFH) of NGC 300 and compare its SFH with that of M 33 to explore the common properties and differences between these two nearby low-mass systems. Methods: We construct a simple chemical evolution model for NGC 300, assuming its disk forms gradually from continuous accretion of primordial gas and including the gas-outflow process. The model allows us to build a bridge between the SFH and observed data of NGC 300, in particular, the present-day radial profiles and global observed properties (e.g., cold gas mass, star formation rate, and metallicity). By means of comparing the model predictions with the corresponding observations, we adopt the classical χ2 methodology to find out the best combination of free parameters a, b, and bout. Results: Our results show that by assuming an inside-out formation scenario and an appropriate outflow rate, our model reproduces well most of the present-day observational values. The model not only reproduces well the radial profiles, but also the global observational data for the NGC 300 disk. Our results suggest that NGC 300 may experience a rapid growth of its disk. Through comparing the best-fitting, model-predicted SFH of NGC 300 with that of M 33, we find that the mean stellar age of NGC 300 is older than that of M 33 and there is a recent lack of primordial gas infall onto the disk of NGC 300. Our results also imply that the local environment may play a key role in the secular evolution of galaxy disks.

Sustainability, collapse and oscillations in a simple World-Earth model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nitzbon, Jan; Heitzig, Jobst; Parlitz, Ulrich

2017-07-01

The Anthropocene is characterized by close interdependencies between the natural Earth system and the global human society, posing novel challenges to model development. Here we present a conceptual model describing the long-term co-evolution of natural and socio-economic subsystems of Earth. While the climate is represented via a global carbon cycle, we use economic concepts to model socio-metabolic flows of biomass and fossil fuels between nature and society. A well-being-dependent parametrization of fertility and mortality governs human population dynamics. Our analysis focuses on assessing possible asymptotic states of the Earth system for a qualitative understanding of its complex dynamics rather than quantitative predictions. Low dimension and simple equations enable a parameter-space analysis allowing us to identify preconditions of several asymptotic states and hence fates of humanity and planet. These include a sustainable co-evolution of nature and society, a global collapse and everlasting oscillations. We consider different scenarios corresponding to different socio-cultural stages of human history. The necessity of accounting for the ‘human factor’ in Earth system models is highlighted by the finding that carbon stocks during the past centuries evolved opposing to what would ‘naturally’ be expected on a planet without humans. The intensity of biomass use and the contribution of ecosystem services to human well-being are found to be crucial determinants of the asymptotic state in a (pre-industrial) biomass-only scenario without capital accumulation. The capitalistic, fossil-based scenario reveals that trajectories with fundamentally different asymptotic states might still be almost indistinguishable during even a centuries-long transient phase. Given current human population levels, our study also supports the claim that besides reducing the global demand for energy, only the extensive use of renewable energies may pave the way into a sustainable future.

The Impact of Secondary School Students' Preconceptions on the Evolution of Their Mental Models of the Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reinfried, Sibylle; Tempelmann, Sebastian

2014-01-01

This paper provides a video-based learning process study that investigates the kinds of mental models of the atmospheric greenhouse effect 13-year-old learners have and how these mental models change with a learning environment, which is optimised in regard to instructional psychology. The objective of this explorative study was to observe and…

A spatial socio-ecosystem approach to analyse human-environment interactions on climate change adaptation for water resources management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giupponi, Carlo; Mojtahed, Vahid

2017-04-01

Global climate and socio-economic drivers determine the future patterns of the allocation and the trade of resources and commodities in all markets. The agricultural sector is an emblematic case in which natural (e.g. climate), social (e.g. demography) and economic (e.g. the market) drivers of change interact, determining the evolution of social and ecological systems (or simply socio-ecosystems; SES) over time. In order to analyse the dynamics and possible future evolutions of SES, the combination of local complex systems and global drivers and trends require the development of multiscale approaches. At global level, climatic general circulation models (CGM) and computable general equilibrium or partial equilibrium models have been used for many years to explore the effects of global trends and generate future climate and socio-economic scenarios. Al local level, the inherent complexity of SESs and their spatial and temporal variabilities require different modelling approaches of physical/environmental sub-systems (e.g. field scale crop modelling, GIS-based models, etc.) and of human agency decision makers (e.g. agent based models). Global and local models have different assumption, limitations, constrains, etc., but in some cases integration is possible and several attempts are in progress to couple different models within the so-called Integrated Assessment Models. This work explores an innovative proposal to integrate the global and local approaches, where agent-based models (ABM) are used to simulate spatial (i.e. grid-based) and temporal dynamics of land and water resource use spatial and temporal dynamics, under the effect of global drivers. We focus in particular on how global change may affect land-use allocation at the local to regional level, under the influence of limited natural resources, land and water in particular. We specifically explore how constrains and competition for natural resources may induce non-linearities and discontinuities in socio-ecosystems behaviour. Our general ambition is to explore the feasibility of an approach that could be implemented worldwide through the identification of representative cases described by means of spatially explicit integrated simulations in communication with global modelling. Our specific objective is to test how ABMs can support scenario analysis at regional scale, and in particular how this can facilitate understanding of the role of human agency and its behavioural characteristics in local to global dynamics. The SES of interest is the agro-ecosystem with its relationships with other land uses. In order to test the feasibility of application at global level, all the information about land uses, natural resources, local climate, crop potential productions, etc. were derived from freely available spatial data sets covering the whole planet, which provided the ABM model with spatial information as matrices of pixels. Input maps were extracted from the Global Agro-Ecological Zone (GAEZ) web site of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and compiled in the local GIS from where they were then converted in a format compatible with Matlab. In this initial application, an ABM prototype was developed in three test areas around the Mediterranean Basin, in agricultural regions of Tunisia, Italy and Spain.

The evolution of magnetic hot massive stars: Implementation of the quantitative influence of surface magnetic fields in modern models of stellar evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keszthelyi, Zsolt; Wade, Gregg A.; Petit, Veronique

2017-11-01

Large-scale dipolar surface magnetic fields have been detected in a fraction of OB stars, however only few stellar evolution models of massive stars have considered the impact of these fossil fields. We are performing 1D hydrodynamical model calculations taking into account evolutionary consequences of the magnetospheric-wind interactions in a simplified parametric way. Two effects are considered: i) the global mass-loss rates are reduced due to mass-loss quenching, and ii) the surface angular momentum loss is enhanced due to magnetic braking. As a result of the magnetic mass-loss quenching, the mass of magnetic massive stars remains close to their initial masses. Thus magnetic massive stars - even at Galactic metallicity - have the potential to be progenitors of "heavy" stellar mass black holes. Similarly, at Galactic metallicity, the formation of pair instability supernovae is plausible with a magnetic progenitor.

Origin and Evolution of Magnetic Field in PMS Stars: Influence of Rotation and Structural Changes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Emeriau-Viard, Constance; Brun, Allan Sacha, E-mail: constance.emeriau@cea.fr, E-mail: sacha.brun@cea.fr

During stellar evolution, especially in the pre-main-sequence phase, stellar structure and rotation evolve significantly, causing major changes in the dynamics and global flows of the star. We wish to assess the consequences of these changes on stellar dynamo, internal magnetic field topology, and activity level. To do so, we have performed a series of 3D HD and MHD simulations with the ASH code. We choose five different models characterized by the radius of their radiative zone following an evolutionary track computed by a 1D stellar evolution code. These models characterized stellar evolution from 1 to 50 Myr. By introducing amore » seed magnetic field in the fully convective model and spreading its evolved state through all four remaining cases, we observe systematic variations in the dynamical properties and magnetic field amplitude and topology of the models. The five MHD simulations develop a strong dynamo field that can reach an equipartition state between the kinetic and magnetic energies and even superequipartition levels in the faster-rotating cases. We find that the magnetic field amplitude increases as it evolves toward the zero-age main sequence. Moreover, the magnetic field topology becomes more complex, with a decreasing axisymmetric component and a nonaxisymmetric one becoming predominant. The dipolar components decrease as the rotation rate and the size of the radiative core increase. The magnetic fields possess a mixed poloidal-toroidal topology with no obvious dominant component. Moreover, the relaxation of the vestige dynamo magnetic field within the radiative core is found to satisfy MHD stability criteria. Hence, it does not experience a global reconfiguration but slowly relaxes by retaining its mixed stable poloidal-toroidal topology.« less

On a Nonlinear Model for Tumor Growth: Global in Time Weak Solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donatelli, Donatella; Trivisa, Konstantina

2014-07-01

We investigate the dynamics of a class of tumor growth models known as mixed models. The key characteristic of these type of tumor growth models is that the different populations of cells are continuously present everywhere in the tumor at all times. In this work we focus on the evolution of tumor growth in the presence of proliferating, quiescent and dead cells as well as a nutrient. The system is given by a multi-phase flow model and the tumor is described as a growing continuum Ω with boundary ∂Ω both of which evolve in time. Global-in-time weak solutions are obtained using an approach based on penalization of the boundary behavior, diffusion and viscosity in the weak formulation.

The Evolution of El Nino-Precipitation Relationships from Satellites and Gauges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert F.; Starr, David OC (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This study uses a twenty-three year (1979-2001) satellite-gauge merged community data set to further describe the relationship between El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation. The globally complete precipitation fields reveal coherent bands of anomalies that extend from the tropics to the polar regions. Also, ENSO-precipitation relationships were analyzed during the six strongest El Ninos from 1979 to 2001. Seasons of evolution, Pre-onset, Onset, Peak, Decay, and Post-decay, were identified based on the strength of the El Nino. Then two simple and independent models, first order harmonic and linear, were fit to the monthly time series of normalized precipitation anomalies for each grid block. The sinusoidal model represents a three-phase evolution of precipitation, either dry-wet-dry or wet-dry-wet. This model is also highly correlated with the evolution of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. The linear model represents a two-phase evolution of precipitation, either dry-wet or wet-dry. These models combine to account for over 50% of the precipitation variability for over half the globe during El Nino. Most regions, especially away from the Equator, favor the linear model. Areas that show the largest trend from dry to wet are southeastern Australia, eastern Indian Ocean, southern Japan, and off the coast of Peru. The northern tropical Pacific and Southeast Asia show the opposite trend.

Fast Magnetotail Reconnection: Challenge to Global MHD Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuznetsova, M. M.; Hesse, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Toth, G.; de Zeeuw, D.; Gombosi, T.

2005-05-01

Representation of fast magnetotail reconnection rates during substorm onset is one of the major challenges to global MHD modeling. Our previous comparative study of collisionless magnetic reconnection in GEM Challenge geometry demonstrated that the reconnection rate is controlled by ion nongyrotropic behavior near the reconnection site and that it can be described in terms of nongyrotropic corrections to the magnetic induction equation. To further test the approach we performed MHD simulations with nongyrotropic corrections of forced reconnection for the Newton Challenge setup. As a next step we employ the global MHD code BATSRUS and test different methods to model fast magnetotail reconnection rates by introducing non-ideal corrections to the induction equation in terms of nongyrotropic corrections, spatially localized resistivity, or current dependent resistivity. The BATSRUS adaptive grid structure allows to perform global simulations with spatial resolution near the reconnection site comparable with spatial resolution of local MHD simulations for the Newton Challenge. We select solar wind conditions which drive the accumulation of magnetic field in the tail lobes and subsequent magnetic reconnection and energy release. Testing the ability of global MHD models to describe magnetotail evolution during substroms is one of the elements of science based validation efforts at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center.

Probabilistic models of eukaryotic evolution: time for integration

PubMed Central

Lartillot, Nicolas

2015-01-01

In spite of substantial work and recent progress, a global and fully resolved picture of the macroevolutionary history of eukaryotes is still under construction. This concerns not only the phylogenetic relations among major groups, but also the general characteristics of the underlying macroevolutionary processes, including the patterns of gene family evolution associated with endosymbioses, as well as their impact on the sequence evolutionary process. All these questions raise formidable methodological challenges, calling for a more powerful statistical paradigm. In this direction, model-based probabilistic approaches have played an increasingly important role. In particular, improved models of sequence evolution accounting for heterogeneities across sites and across lineages have led to significant, although insufficient, improvement in phylogenetic accuracy. More recently, one main trend has been to move away from simple parametric models and stepwise approaches, towards integrative models explicitly considering the intricate interplay between multiple levels of macroevolutionary processes. Such integrative models are in their infancy, and their application to the phylogeny of eukaryotes still requires substantial improvement of the underlying models, as well as additional computational developments. PMID:26323768

Acceleration of Relativistic Electrons: A Comparison of Two Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, J. C.; Kivelson, M. G.

2001-12-01

Observations of relativistic electron fluxes show order of magnitude increases during some geomagnetic storms. Many electron acceleration models have been proposed to explain the flux enhancements but attempts to validate these models have yielded ambiguous results. Here we examine two models of electron acceleration, radial diffusion via enhanced ULF wave activity [Elkington et al.,1999] and acceleration by resonant interaction with whistler waves[Summers,1998; Roth et al.,1999]. Two methods are used to compare observations with features predicted by the models. First, the evolution of phase space density as a function of L during flux enhancement events is evaluated. The phase space density (PSD) is calculated at constant first, second and third adiabatic invariants using data obtained by the CEPPAD-HIST instrument and the MFE instrument onboard the Polar spacecraft. Liouville's theorem states that PSD calculated at constant adiabatic invariants does not change with time unless some mechanism violates one of the invariants. The radial diffusion model predicts that only the flux invariant will be violated during the acceleration process while acceleration by whistler waves violates the first invariant. Therefore, the two models predict a different evolution of the PSD as a function of time and L. Previous examinations of the evolution of PSD have yielded ambiguous results because PSD calculations are highly dependent on the global accuracy of magnetic field models. We examine the PSD versus L profiles for a series of geomagnetic storms and in addition determine how errors in the Tsyganenko 96 field model affect the results by comparing the measured magnetic field to the model magnetic field used in the calculations. Second, the evolution of the relativistic electron pitch angle distributions is evaluated. Previous studies of pitch angle distributions were limited because few spacecraft have the necessary instrumentation and global coverage. The CEPPAD-HIST instrument measures 16 look directions and along with measurements from the MFE experiment allows calculation of complete pitch angle distributions. The evolving orbit of the Polar spacecraft over the 6 years mission has given measurements over a wide range of L and local time. Using data extending over the entire mission we use superposed epoch analysis to examine the evolution of pitch angle distributions during flux enhancement events as a function of L, magnetic local time, and storm phase.

The evolution of biomass-burning aerosol size distributions due to coagulation: dependence on fire and meteorological details and parameterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakamoto, Kimiko M.; Laing, James R.; Stevens, Robin G.; Jaffe, Daniel A.; Pierce, Jeffrey R.

2016-06-01

Biomass-burning aerosols have a significant effect on global and regional aerosol climate forcings. To model the magnitude of these effects accurately requires knowledge of the size distribution of the emitted and evolving aerosol particles. Current biomass-burning inventories do not include size distributions, and global and regional models generally assume a fixed size distribution from all biomass-burning emissions. However, biomass-burning size distributions evolve in the plume due to coagulation and net organic aerosol (OA) evaporation or formation, and the plume processes occur on spacial scales smaller than global/regional-model grid boxes. The extent of this size-distribution evolution is dependent on a variety of factors relating to the emission source and atmospheric conditions. Therefore, accurately accounting for biomass-burning aerosol size in global models requires an effective aerosol size distribution that accounts for this sub-grid evolution and can be derived from available emission-inventory and meteorological parameters. In this paper, we perform a detailed investigation of the effects of coagulation on the aerosol size distribution in biomass-burning plumes. We compare the effect of coagulation to that of OA evaporation and formation. We develop coagulation-only parameterizations for effective biomass-burning size distributions using the SAM-TOMAS large-eddy simulation plume model. For the most-sophisticated parameterization, we use the Gaussian Emulation Machine for Sensitivity Analysis (GEM-SA) to build a parameterization of the aged size distribution based on the SAM-TOMAS output and seven inputs: emission median dry diameter, emission distribution modal width, mass emissions flux, fire area, mean boundary-layer wind speed, plume mixing depth, and time/distance since emission. This parameterization was tested against an independent set of SAM-TOMAS simulations and yields R2 values of 0.83 and 0.89 for Dpm and modal width, respectively. The size distribution is particularly sensitive to the mass emissions flux, fire area, wind speed, and time, and we provide simplified fits of the aged size distribution to just these input variables. The simplified fits were tested against 11 aged biomass-burning size distributions observed at the Mt. Bachelor Observatory in August 2015. The simple fits captured over half of the variability in observed Dpm and modal width even though the freshly emitted Dpm and modal widths were unknown. These fits may be used in global and regional aerosol models. Finally, we show that coagulation generally leads to greater changes in the particle size distribution than OA evaporation/formation does, using estimates of OA production/loss from the literature.

Evolution of the long-wavelength, subduction-driven topography of South America since 150 Ma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flament, N. E.; Gurnis, M.; Williams, S.; Bower, D. J.; Seton, M.; Müller, D.

2014-12-01

Subduction to the west of South America spans 6000 km along strike and has been active for over 250 Myr. The influence of the history of subduction on the geodynamics of South America has been profound, driving mountain building and arc volcanism in the Andean Cordillera. Here, we investigate the long-wavelength changes in the topography of South America associated with subduction and plate motion and their interplay with the lithospheric deformation associated with the opening of the South Atlantic. We pay particular attention to the topographic expression of flat-lying subduction zones. We develop time-dependent geodynamic models of mantle flow and lithosphere deformation to investigate the evolution of South American dynamic and total topography since the late Jurassic (150 Ma). Our models are semi-empirical because the computational cost of fully dynamic, evolutionary models is still prohibitive. We impose the kinematics of global plate reconstructions with deforming continents in forward global mantle convection models with compositionally distinct crust and continental lithosphere embedded within the thermal lithosphere. The shallow thermal structure of subducting slabs is imposed, allowing us to investigate the evolution of dynamic topography around flat slab segments in time-dependent models. Multiple cases are used to investigate how the evolution of South American dynamic topography is influenced by mantle viscosity, the kinematics of the opening of the South Atlantic and alternative scenarios for recent and past flat-slab subduction. We predict that the migration of South America over sinking oceanic lithosphere resulted in continental tilt to the west until ~ 45 Ma, inverting to an eastward tilt thereafter. This first-order result is consistent with the reversal of the drainage of the Amazon River system. We investigate which scenarios of flat-slab subduction since the Eocene are compatible with geological constraints on the evolution of the Solimoes Basin, the Chaco Basin, the Sierras Pampeanas and the Central Patagonian Basin. To broadly constrain mantle viscosity, we compare models to the total subsidence inferred from well data offshore Argentina and Brazil, and to mantle tomography, since the initial and boundary conditions are based on independent plate reconstructions.

Testing stellar evolution models with detached eclipsing binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Higl, J.; Weiss, A.

2017-12-01

Stellar evolution codes, as all other numerical tools, need to be verified. One of the standard stellar objects that allow stringent tests of stellar evolution theory and models, are detached eclipsing binaries. We have used 19 such objects to test our stellar evolution code, in order to see whether standard methods and assumptions suffice to reproduce the observed global properties. In this paper we concentrate on three effects that contain a specific uncertainty: atomic diffusion as used for standard solar model calculations, overshooting from convective regions, and a simple model for the effect of stellar spots on stellar radius, which is one of the possible solutions for the radius problem of M dwarfs. We find that in general old systems need diffusion to allow for, or at least improve, an acceptable fit, and that systems with convective cores indeed need overshooting. Only one system (AI Phe) requires the absence of it for a successful fit. To match stellar radii for very low-mass stars, the spot model proved to be an effective approach, but depending on model details, requires a high percentage of the surface being covered by spots. We briefly discuss improvements needed to further reduce the freedom in modelling and to allow an even more restrictive test by using these objects.

Phase Transitions of an Epidemic Spreading Model in Small-World Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hua, Da-Yin; Gao, Ke

2011-06-01

We propose a modified susceptible-infected-refractory-susceptible (SIRS) model to investigate the global oscillations of the epidemic spreading in Watts—Strogatz (WS) small-world networks. It is found that when an individual immunity does not change or decays slowly in an immune period, the system can exhibit complex transition from an infecting stationary state to a large amplitude sustained oscillation or an absorbing state with no infection. When the immunity decays rapidly in the immune period, the transition to the global oscillation disappears and there is no oscillation. Furthermore, based on the spatio-temporal evolution patterns and the phase diagram, it is disclosed that a long immunity period takes an important role in the emergence of the global oscillation in small-world networks.

Modelling water use in global hydrological models: review, challenges and directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bierkens, M. F.; de Graaf, I.; Wada, Y.; Wanders, N.; Van Beek, L. P.

2017-12-01

During the late 1980s and early 1990s, awareness of the shortage of global water resources lead to the first detailed global water resources assessments using regional statistics of water use and observations of meteorological and hydrological variables. Shortly thereafter, the first macroscale hydrological models (MHM) appeared. In these models, blue water (i.e., surface water and renewable groundwater) availability was calculated by accumulating runoff over a stream network and comparing it with population densities or with estimated water demand for agriculture, industry and households. In this talk we review the evolution of human impact modelling in global land models with a focus on global water resources, touching upon developments of the last 15 years: i.e. calculating human water scarcity; estimating groundwater depletion; adding dams and reservoirs; fully integrating water use (demand, withdrawal, consumption, return flow) in the hydrology; simulating the effects of land use change. We show example studies for each of these steps. We identify We identify major challenges that hamper the further development of integrated water resources modelling. Examples of these are: 1) simulating reservoir operations; 2) including local infrastructure and redistribution; 3) using the correct allocations rules; 4) projecting future water demand and water use. For each of these challenges we signify promising directions for further research.

Mid Pleistocene foraminiferal mass extinction coupled with phytoplankton evolution

PubMed Central

Kender, Sev; McClymont, Erin L.; Elmore, Aurora C.; Emanuele, Dario; Leng, Melanie J.; Elderfield, Henry

2016-01-01

Understanding the interaction between climate and biotic evolution is crucial for deciphering the sensitivity of life. An enigmatic mass extinction occurred in the deep oceans during the Mid Pleistocene, with a loss of over 100 species (20%) of sea floor calcareous foraminifera. An evolutionarily conservative group, benthic foraminifera often comprise >50% of eukaryote biomass on the deep-ocean floor. Here we test extinction hypotheses (temperature, corrosiveness and productivity) in the Tasman Sea, using geochemistry and micropalaeontology, and find evidence from several globally distributed sites that the extinction was caused by a change in phytoplankton food source. Coccolithophore evolution may have enhanced the seasonal ‘bloom' nature of primary productivity and fundamentally shifted it towards a more intra-annually variable state at ∼0.8 Ma. Our results highlight intra-annual variability as a potential new consideration for Mid Pleistocene global biogeochemical climate models, and imply that deep-sea biota may be sensitive to future changes in productivity. PMID:27311937

A Prominence Puzzle Explained?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeates, A. R.; Mackay, D. H.; van Ballegooijen, A. A.

2009-02-01

Long-standing observations reveal a global organisation of the magnetic field direction in solar prominences (aka filaments), large clouds of cool dense plasma suspended in the Sun's hot corona. However, theorists have thus far been unable to explain the origin of this hemispheric pattern. In particular, simple shearing by large-scale surface motions would appear to lead to the wrong magnetic field direction. To explain the observations, we have developed a new model of the global magnetic field evolution in the solar corona over six months. For the first time our model can follow the build-up of magnetic helicity and shear on a global scale, driven by flux emergence and surface motions. The model is successful in predicting the correct magnetic field direction in the vast majority of prominences tested, and has enabled us to determine the key physical mechanisms behind the mysterious hemispheric pattern.

Evolution of dispersal in spatially and temporally variable environments: The importance of life cycles.

PubMed

Massol, François; Débarre, Florence

2015-07-01

Spatiotemporal variability of the environment is bound to affect the evolution of dispersal, and yet model predictions strongly differ on this particular effect. Recent studies on the evolution of local adaptation have shown that the life cycle chosen to model the selective effects of spatiotemporal variability of the environment is a critical factor determining evolutionary outcomes. Here, we investigate the effect of the order of events in the life cycle on the evolution of unconditional dispersal in a spatially heterogeneous, temporally varying landscape. Our results show that the occurrence of intermediate singular strategies and disruptive selection are conditioned by the temporal autocorrelation of the environment and by the life cycle. Life cycles with dispersal of adults versus dispersal of juveniles, local versus global density regulation, give radically different evolutionary outcomes that include selection for total philopatry, evolutionary bistability, selection for intermediate stable states, and evolutionary branching points. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for life-cycle specifics when predicting the effects of the environment on evolutionarily selected trait values, such as dispersal, as well as the need to check the robustness of model conclusions against modifications of the life cycle. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Study on Capturing Functional Requirements of the New Product Based on Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Fang; Song, Liya; Bai, Zhonghang; Zhang, Peng

In order to exist in an increasingly competitive global marketplace, it is important for corporations to forecast the evolutionary direction of new products rapidly and effectively. Most products in the world are developed based on the design of existing products. In the product design, capturing functional requirements is a key step. Function is continuously evolving, which is driven by the evolution of needs and technologies. So the functional requirements of new product can be forecasted based on the functions of existing product. Eight laws of function evolution are put forward in this paper. The process model of capturing the functional requirements of new product based on function evolution is proposed. An example illustrates the design process.

Venus magmatic and tectonic evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phillips, R. J.; Hansen, V. L.

1993-01-01

Two years beyond the initial mapping by the Magellan spacecraft, hypotheses for the magmatic and tectonic evolution of Venus have become refined and focused. We present our view of these processes, attempting to synthesize aspects of a model for the tectonic and magmatic behavior of the planet. The ideas presented should be taken collectively as an hypothesis subject to further testing. The quintessence of our model is that shear and buoyancy forces in the upper boundary layer of mantle convection give rise to a spatially and temporally complex pattern of strain in a one-plate Venusian lithosphere and modulate the timing and occurrence of magmatism on a global basis.

Parallel selective pressures drive convergent diversification of phenotypes in pythons and boas.

PubMed

Esquerré, Damien; Scott Keogh, J

2016-07-01

Pythons and boas are globally distributed and distantly related radiations with remarkable phenotypic and ecological diversity. We tested whether pythons, boas and their relatives have evolved convergent phenotypes when they display similar ecology. We collected geometric morphometric data on head shape for 1073 specimens representing over 80% of species. We show that these two groups display strong and widespread convergence when they occupy equivalent ecological niches and that the history of phenotypic evolution strongly matches the history of ecological diversification, suggesting that both processes are strongly coupled. These results are consistent with replicated adaptive radiation in both groups. We argue that strong selective pressures related to habitat-use have driven this convergence. Pythons and boas provide a new model system for the study of macro-evolutionary patterns of morphological and ecological evolution and they do so at a deeper level of divergence and global scale than any well-established adaptive radiation model systems. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Phylogeny suggests nondirectional and isometric evolution of sexual size dimorphism in argiopine spiders.

PubMed

Cheng, Ren-Chung; Kuntner, Matjaž

2014-10-01

Sexual dimorphism describes substantial differences between male and female phenotypes. In spiders, sexual dimorphism research almost exclusively focuses on size, and recent studies have recovered steady evolutionary size increases in females, and independent evolutionary size changes in males. Their discordance is due to negative allometric size patterns caused by different selection pressures on male and female sizes (converse Rensch's rule). Here, we investigated macroevolutionary patterns of sexual size dimorphism (SSD) in Argiopinae, a global lineage of orb-weaving spiders with varying degrees of SSD. We devised a Bayesian and maximum-likelihood molecular species-level phylogeny, and then used it to reconstruct sex-specific size evolution, to examine general hypotheses and different models of size evolution, to test for sexual size coevolution, and to examine allometric patterns of SSD. Our results, revealing ancestral moderate sizes and SSD, failed to reject the Brownian motion model, which suggests a nondirectional size evolution. Contrary to predictions, male and female sizes were phylogenetically correlated, and SSD evolution was isometric. We interpret these results to question the classical explanations of female-biased SSD via fecundity, gravity, and differential mortality. In argiopines, SSD evolution may be driven by these or additional selection mechanisms, but perhaps at different phylogenetic scales. © 2014 The Author(s). Evolution © 2014 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

High LMD GCM Resolution Modeling of the Seasonal Evolution of the Martian Northern Permanent Cap: Comparison with Mars Express OMEGA Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levrard, B.; Forget, F.; Montmessin, F.; Schmitt, B.; Doute, S.; Langevin, Y.; Poulet, F.; Bibring, J. P.; Gondet, B.

2005-01-01

Analyses of imaging data from Mariner, Viking and MGS have shown that surface properties (albedo, temperature) of the northern cap present significant differences within the summer season and between Mars years. These observations include differential brightening and/or darkening between polar areas from the end of the spring to midsummer. These differences are attributed to changes in grain size or dust content of surface ice. To better understand the summer behavior of the permanent northern polar cap, we perfomed a high resolution modeling (approximately 1 deg x 1 deg.) of northern cap in the Martian Climate/water cycle as simulated by the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD) global climate model. We compare the predicted properties of the surface ice (ice thickness, temperature) with the Mars Express Omega summer observations of the northern cap. albedo and thermal inertia svariations model. In particular, albedo variations could be constrained by OMEGA data. Meteorological predictions of the LMD GCM wil be presented at the conference to interpret the unprecedently resolved OMEGA observations. The specific evolution of regions of interest (cap center, Chasma Boreal...) and the possibility of late summer global cap brightening will be discussed.

Numerical Simulations of Thermobaric Explosions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuhl, A L; Bell, J B; Beckner, V E

2007-05-04

A Model of the energy evolution in thermobaric explosions is presented. It is based on the two-phase formulation: conservation laws for the gas and particle phases along with inter-phase interaction terms. It incorporates a Combustion Model based on the mass conservation laws for fuel, air and products; source/sink terms are treated in the fast-chemistry limit appropriate for such gas dynamic fields. The Model takes into account both the afterburning of the detonation products of the booster with air, and the combustion of the fuel (Al or TNT detonation products) with air. Numerical simulations were performed for 1.5-g thermobaric explosions inmore » five different chambers (volumes ranging from 6.6 to 40 liters and length-to-diameter ratios from 1 to 12.5). Computed pressure waveforms were very similar to measured waveforms in all cases - thereby proving that the Model correctly predicts the energy evolution in such explosions. The computed global fuel consumption {mu}(t) behaved as an exponential life function. Its derivative {dot {mu}}(t) represents the global rate of fuel consumption. It depends on the rate of turbulent mixing which controls the rate of energy release in thermobaric explosions.« less

Trends in global warming and evolution of nucleoproteins from influenza A viruses since 1918.

PubMed

Yan, S; Wu, G

2010-12-01

Global warming affects not only the environment where we live, but also all living species to different degree, including influenza A virus. We recently conducted several studies on the possible impact of global warming on the protein families of influenza A virus. More studies are needed in order to have a full picture of the impact of global warming on living organisms, especially its effect on viruses. In this study, we correlate trends in global warming with evolution of the nucleoprotein from influenza A virus and then analyse the trends with respect to northern/southern hemispheres, virus subtypes and sampling species. The results suggest that global warming may have an impact on the evolution of the nucleoprotein from influenza A virus. © 2010 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Mantle flow influence on subduction evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chertova, Maria V.; Spakman, Wim; Steinberger, Bernhard

2018-05-01

The impact of remotely forced mantle flow on regional subduction evolution is largely unexplored. Here we investigate this by means of 3D thermo-mechanical numerical modeling using a regional modeling domain. We start with simplified models consisting of a 600 km (or 1400 km) wide subducting plate surrounded by other plates. Mantle inflow of ∼3 cm/yr is prescribed during 25 Myr of slab evolution on a subset of the domain boundaries while the other side boundaries are open. Our experiments show that the influence of imposed mantle flow on subduction evolution is the least for trench-perpendicular mantle inflow from either the back or front of the slab leading to 10-50 km changes in slab morphology and trench position while no strong slab dip changes were observed, as compared to a reference model with no imposed mantle inflow. In experiments with trench-oblique mantle inflow we notice larger effects of slab bending and slab translation of the order of 100-200 km. Lastly, we investigate how subduction in the western Mediterranean region is influenced by remotely excited mantle flow that is computed by back-advection of a temperature and density model scaled from a global seismic tomography model. After 35 Myr of subduction evolution we find 10-50 km changes in slab position and slab morphology and a slight change in overall slab tilt. Our study shows that remotely forced mantle flow leads to secondary effects on slab evolution as compared to slab buoyancy and plate motion. Still these secondary effects occur on scales, 10-50 km, typical for the large-scale deformation of the overlying crust and thus may still be of large importance for understanding geological evolution.

A Double Zone Dynamical Model For The Tidal Evolution Of The Obliquity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damiani, Cilia

2017-10-01

It is debated wether close-in giants planets can form in-situ and if not, which mechanisms are responsible for their migration. One of the observable tests for migration theories is the current value of the obliquity. But after the main migration mechanism has ended, the combined effects of tidal dissipation and the magnetic braking of the star lead to the evolution of both the obliquity and the semi-major axis. The observed correlation between effective temperature and measured projected obliquity has been taken as evidence of such mechanisms being at play. Here I present an improved model for the tidal evolution of the obliquity. It includes all the components of the dynamical tide for circular misaligned systems. It uses an analytical formulation for the frequency-averaged dissipation for each mode, depending only on global stellar parameters, giving a measure of the dissipative properties of the convective zone of the host as it evolves in time. The model also includes the effect of magnetic braking in the framework of the double zone model. This results in the estimation of different tidal evolution timescales for the evolution of the planet's semi-major axis and obliquity depending on the properties of the stellar host. This model can be used to test migration theories, provided that a good determination of stellar radii, masses and ages can be obtained.

Quantization of systems with temporally varying discretization. II. Local evolution moves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höhn, Philipp A.

2014-10-01

Several quantum gravity approaches and field theory on an evolving lattice involve a discretization changing dynamics generated by evolution moves. Local evolution moves in variational discrete systems (1) are a generalization of the Pachner evolution moves of simplicial gravity models, (2) update only a small subset of the dynamical data, (3) change the number of kinematical and physical degrees of freedom, and (4) generate a dynamical (or canonical) coarse graining or refining of the underlying discretization. To systematically explore such local moves and their implications in the quantum theory, this article suitably expands the quantum formalism for global evolution moves, constructed in Paper I [P. A. Höhn, "Quantization of systems with temporally varying discretization. I. Evolving Hilbert spaces," J. Math. Phys. 55, 083508 (2014); e-print arXiv:1401.6062 [gr-qc

A Distributed Snow Evolution Modeling System (SnowModel)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liston, G. E.; Elder, K.

2004-12-01

A spatially distributed snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel) has been specifically designed to be applicable over a wide range of snow landscapes, climates, and conditions. To reach this goal, SnowModel is composed of four sub-models: MicroMet defines the meteorological forcing conditions, EnBal calculates surface energy exchanges, SnowMass simulates snow depth and water-equivalent evolution, and SnowTran-3D accounts for snow redistribution by wind. While other distributed snow models exist, SnowModel is unique in that it includes a well-tested blowing-snow sub-model (SnowTran-3D) for application in windy arctic, alpine, and prairie environments where snowdrifts are common. These environments comprise 68% of the seasonally snow-covered Northern Hemisphere land surface. SnowModel also accounts for snow processes occurring in forested environments (e.g., canopy interception related processes). SnowModel is designed to simulate snow-related physical processes occurring at spatial scales of 5-m and greater, and temporal scales of 1-hour and greater. These include: accumulation from precipitation; wind redistribution and sublimation; loading, unloading, and sublimation within forest canopies; snow-density evolution; and snowpack ripening and melt. To enhance its wide applicability, SnowModel includes the physical calculations required to simulate snow evolution within each of the global snow classes defined by Sturm et al. (1995), e.g., tundra, taiga, alpine, prairie, maritime, and ephemeral snow covers. The three, 25-km by 25-km, Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX) mesoscale study areas (MSAs: Fraser, North Park, and Rabbit Ears) are used as SnowModel simulation examples to highlight model strengths, weaknesses, and features in forested, semi-forested, alpine, and shrubland environments.

Igneous proceses and closed system evolution of the Tharsis region of Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finnerty, A. A.; Phillips, R. J.; Banerdt, W. B.

1988-09-01

A quantitative petrologic model for the evolution of the Tharsis region on Mars is presented, which is consistent with global gravity and topography data. It is demonstrated that it is possible to form and support the topographic relief of the Tharsis plateau by a closed-system mass-conservative nearly isostatic process involving generation of magmas from a mantle source region. Extrusion and/or intrusion (or underplating) of such magmas allows low-pressure solidification, with a consequent increase in volume relative to that which would be possible in the high-pressure source region, leading to elevated topology. The distribution of densities with depth obtained by the model is quantitatively consistent with the isostatic models of Sleep and Phillips (1979, 1985).

Evolution of the global virtual water trade network.

PubMed

Dalin, Carole; Konar, Megan; Hanasaki, Naota; Rinaldo, Andrea; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2012-04-17

Global freshwater resources are under increasing pressure from economic development, population growth, and climate change. The international trade of water-intensive products (e.g., agricultural commodities) or virtual water trade has been suggested as a way to save water globally. We focus on the virtual water trade network associated with international food trade built with annual trade data and annual modeled virtual water content. The evolution of this network from 1986 to 2007 is analyzed and linked to trade policies, socioeconomic circumstances, and agricultural efficiency. We find that the number of trade connections and the volume of water associated with global food trade more than doubled in 22 years. Despite this growth, constant organizational features were observed in the network. However, both regional and national virtual water trade patterns significantly changed. Indeed, Asia increased its virtual water imports by more than 170%, switching from North America to South America as its main partner, whereas North America oriented to a growing intraregional trade. A dramatic rise in China's virtual water imports is associated with its increased soy imports after a domestic policy shift in 2000. Significantly, this shift has led the global soy market to save water on a global scale, but it also relies on expanding soy production in Brazil, which contributes to deforestation in the Amazon. We find that the international food trade has led to enhanced savings in global water resources over time, indicating its growing efficiency in terms of global water use.

X-Ray Probes of Cosmic Star Formation History

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghosh, Pranab; White, Nicholas E.

2001-01-01

We discuss the imprints left by a cosmological evolution of the star formation rate (SFR) on the evolution of X-ray luminosities Lx of normal galaxies, using the scheme earlier proposed by us, wherein the evolution of LX of a galaxy is driven by the evolution of its X-ray binary population. As indicated in our earlier work, the profile of Lx with redshift can both serve as a diagnostic probe of the SFR profile and constrain evolutionary models for X-ray binaries. We report here the first calculation of the expected evolution of X-ray luminosities of galaxies, updating our work by using a suite of more recently developed SFR profiles that span the currently plausible range. The first Chandra deep imaging results on Lx evolution are beginning to probe the SFR profile of bright spiral galaxies; the early results are consistent with predictions based on current SFR models. Using these new SFR profiles, the resolution of the "birthrate problem" of low-mass X-ray binaries and recycled, millisecond pulsars in terms of an evolving global SFR is more complete. We discuss the possible impact of the variations in the SFR profile of individual galaxies and galaxy types.

Quantitative Simulation of QARBM Challenge Events During Radiation Belt Enhancements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, W.; Ma, Q.; Thorne, R. M.; Bortnik, J.; Chu, X.

2017-12-01

Various physical processes are known to affect energetic electron dynamics in the Earth's radiation belts, but their quantitative effects at different times and locations in space need further investigation. This presentation focuses on discussing the quantitative roles of various physical processes that affect Earth's radiation belt electron dynamics during radiation belt enhancement challenge events (storm-time vs. non-storm-time) selected by the GEM Quantitative Assessment of Radiation Belt Modeling (QARBM) focus group. We construct realistic global distributions of whistler-mode chorus waves, adopt various versions of radial diffusion models (statistical and event-specific), and use the global evolution of other potentially important plasma waves including plasmaspheric hiss, magnetosonic waves, and electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves from all available multi-satellite measurements. These state-of-the-art wave properties and distributions on a global scale are used to calculate diffusion coefficients, that are then adopted as inputs to simulate the dynamical electron evolution using a 3D diffusion simulation during the storm-time and the non-storm-time acceleration events respectively. We explore the similarities and differences in the dominant physical processes that cause radiation belt electron dynamics during the storm-time and non-storm-time acceleration events. The quantitative role of each physical process is determined by comparing against the Van Allen Probes electron observations at different energies, pitch angles, and L-MLT regions. This quantitative comparison further indicates instances when quasilinear theory is sufficient to explain the observed electron dynamics or when nonlinear interaction is required to reproduce the energetic electron evolution observed by the Van Allen Probes.

Estimation of landslides activities evolution due to land-use and climate change in a Pyrenean valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandromme, Rosalie; Bernardie, Séverine; Houet, Thomas; Grémont, Marine; Grandjean, Gilles; Thiery, Yannick

2016-04-01

Global changes would have impacts worldwide, but their effects should be even more exacerbated in areas particularly vulnerable. Mountainous areas are among these vulnerable territories. Ecological systems are often at a fragile equilibrium, socio-economical activities are often climate-dependent and climate-driven natural hazards can be a major threat for human activities. In order to estimate the capacity of such mountainous valleys to face global changes (climate, but also climate- and human- induced land-use changes), it is necessary to be able to evaluate the evolution of the different threats. The present work shows a method to evaluate the influences of the evolution of both vegetation cover and climate on landslides activities over a whole valley until 2100, to propose adequate solutions for current and future forestry management. Firstly, the assessment of future land use is addressed through the construction of four prospective socio-economic scenarios up to 2050 and 2100, which are then spatially validated and modeled with LUCC models. Secondly, the climate change inputs of the project correspond to 2 scenarios of emission of greenhouse gases. The used simulations available on the portal DRIAS (http://www.drias-climat.fr) were performed with the GHG emissions scenarios (RCP: Representative concentration pathways, according to the standards defined by the GIEC) RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The impact of land use and climate change is then addressed through the use of these scenarios into hazards computations. For that we use a large-scale slope stability assessment tool ALICE which combines a mechanical stability model (using finite slope analysis), a vegetation module which interfere with the first model, to take into account the effects of vegetation on the mechanical soil properties (cohesion and over-load), and an hydrogeological model. All these elements are interfaced within a GIS-based solution. In that way, future changes in temperature, precipitation and vegetation cover are analyzed, permitting to address the direct and indirect impacts of global change on mountain societies. The whole chain is applied to a 100-km² Pyrenean Valley, for the ANR Project SAMCO (Society Adaptation for coping with Mountain risks in a global change COntext), as a first step in the chain for risk assessment for different climate and economical development scenarios, to evaluate the resilience of mountainous areas.

Expansion or extinction: deterministic and stochastic two-patch models with Allee effects.

PubMed

Kang, Yun; Lanchier, Nicolas

2011-06-01

We investigate the impact of Allee effect and dispersal on the long-term evolution of a population in a patchy environment. Our main focus is on whether a population already established in one patch either successfully invades an adjacent empty patch or undergoes a global extinction. Our study is based on the combination of analytical and numerical results for both a deterministic two-patch model and a stochastic counterpart. The deterministic model has either two, three or four attractors. The existence of a regime with exactly three attractors only appears when patches have distinct Allee thresholds. In the presence of weak dispersal, the analysis of the deterministic model shows that a high-density and a low-density populations can coexist at equilibrium in nearby patches, whereas the analysis of the stochastic model indicates that this equilibrium is metastable, thus leading after a large random time to either a global expansion or a global extinction. Up to some critical dispersal, increasing the intensity of the interactions leads to an increase of both the basin of attraction of the global extinction and the basin of attraction of the global expansion. Above this threshold, for both the deterministic and the stochastic models, the patches tend to synchronize as the intensity of the dispersal increases. This results in either a global expansion or a global extinction. For the deterministic model, there are only two attractors, while the stochastic model no longer exhibits a metastable behavior. In the presence of strong dispersal, the limiting behavior is entirely determined by the value of the Allee thresholds as the global population size in the deterministic and the stochastic models evolves as dictated by their single-patch counterparts. For all values of the dispersal parameter, Allee effects promote global extinction in terms of an expansion of the basin of attraction of the extinction equilibrium for the deterministic model and an increase of the probability of extinction for the stochastic model.

Dynamics of Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCauley, Joseph L.

2009-09-01

Preface; 1. Econophysics: why and what; 2. Neo-classical economic theory; 3. Probability and stochastic processes; 4. Introduction to financial economics; 5. Introduction to portfolio selection theory; 6. Scaling, pair correlations, and conditional densities; 7. Statistical ensembles: deducing dynamics from time series; 8. Martingale option pricing; 9. FX market globalization: evolution of the dollar to worldwide reserve currency; 10. Macroeconomics and econometrics: regression models vs. empirically based modeling; 11. Complexity; Index.

Some basic properties of immune selection.

PubMed

Iwasa, Yoh; Michor, Franziska; Nowak, Martin

2004-07-21

We analyze models for the evolutionary dynamics of viral or other infectious agents within a host. We study how the invasion of a new strain affects the composition and diversity of the viral population. We show that--under strain-specific immunity--the equilibrium abundance of uninfected cells declines during viral evolution. In addition, for cytotoxic immunity the absolute force of infection, and for non-cytotoxic immunity the absolute cellular virulence increases during viral evolution. We prove global stability by means of Lyapunov functions. These unidirectional trends of virus evolution under immune selection do not hold for general cross-reactive immune responses, which introduce frequency-dependent selection among viral strains. Therefore, appropriate cross-reactive immunity can lead to a viral evolution within a host which limits the extent of the disease.

The resurrection genome of Boea hygrometrica: A blueprint for survival of dehydration

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The dicot, Boea hygrometrica, is an important plant model for the discovery of genes central to desiccation tolerance in plants; an essential trait in land plant evolution and the foundation for global agriculture. We used a vegetative clonal line to uncover the sequence and characterize the respons...

Evolution and Punctuation of Theories of Educational Expenditure and Student Outcomes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marion, Russ; Flanigan, Jack

2001-01-01

Examines whether school-expenditure theory can be described in terms of Thomas Kuhn's punctuated-equilibrium model: long periods of theoretical stasis interspersed with brief periods of revolutionary change. Current researchers, influenced by organizational behavior theories, believe that finding a global money/student outcome relationship is an…

Environmental influences on the evolution of body size in Ammonoids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hines, S.; Khong, C.; Pelagio, M.; Seixas, G.; Payne, J.

2012-12-01

A major debate in evolutionary biology and paleobiology focuses on the relative importance of ecological interactions between species versus changes in the physical environment in governing large-scale evolutionary patterns. Body size is among the most important traits of any organism, and so identifying the factors that influence size evolution can shed light on both the causes and consequences of many major evolutionary trends. However, the extent to which body size evolution over time can be explained by changes in the physical versus ecological context remains unknown. In this study, we examined body size evolution in ammonoids, an extinct group of marine cephalopods. We collected a representative body size for each genus from illustrated specimens in the Treatise on Invertebrate Paleontology. We then examined relative statistical support for six models of size evolution: random walk, directional trend, stasis, and environmental control by oxygen availability, temperature, and global sea level. No model is unambiguously supported over all others. Unbiased random walk was the best supported model (34%) and environmental control by atmospheric pO2 was the second best supported model (22%). Stasis received the least support (<<1%). Because we find pO2 to be inversely correlated with ammonoid size, we suspect that the observed correlation does not reflect a direct causal relationship. Overall, our results suggest that no single, simple model can be used to characterize the evolution of ammonoid size over the entire history of this clade. We speculate that controls on ammonoid size evolution varied through geological time, both due to long-term shifts in the ecological structure of marine communities and short-term perturbations associated with major extinction events.

Coastal bathymetry data collected in June 2014 from Fire Island, New York—The wilderness breach and shoreface

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, Timothy R.; Miselis, Jennifer L.; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Wilson, Kathleen E.; Henderson, Rachel E.; Brenner, Owen T.; Reynolds, Billy J.; Hansen, Mark E.

2016-08-02

Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center in St. Petersburg, Florida, collected bathymetric data along the upper shoreface and within the wilderness breach at Fire Island, New York, in June 2014. The U.S. Geological Survey is involved in a post-Hurricane Sandy effort to map and monitor the morphologic evolution of the shoreface along Fire Island and model the evolution of the wilderness breach as a part of the Hurricane Sandy Supplemental Project GS2-2B. During this study, bathymetry was collected with single-beam echo sounders and global positioning systems, mounted to personal watercraft, along the Fire Island shoreface and within the wilderness breach. Additional bathymetry was collected using backpack global positioning systems along the flood shoals and shallow channels within the wilderness breach.

Biogeographic patterns in ocean microbes emerge in a neutral agent-based model.

PubMed

Hellweger, Ferdi L; van Sebille, Erik; Fredrick, Neil D

2014-09-12

A key question in ecology and evolution is the relative role of natural selection and neutral evolution in producing biogeographic patterns. We quantify the role of neutral processes by simulating division, mutation, and death of 100,000 individual marine bacteria cells with full 1 million-base-pair genomes in a global surface ocean circulation model. The model is run for up to 100,000 years and output is analyzed using BLAST (Basic Local Alignment Search Tool) alignment and metagenomics fragment recruitment. Simulations show the production and maintenance of biogeographic patterns, characterized by distinct provinces subject to mixing and periodic takeovers by neighbors (coalescence), after which neutral evolution reestablishes the province and the patterns reorganize. The emergent patterns are substantial (e.g., down to 99.5% DNA identity between North and Central Pacific provinces) and suggest that microbes evolve faster than ocean currents can disperse them. This approach can also be used to explore environmental selection. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Exploring the Common Dynamics of Homologous Proteins. Application to the Globin Family

PubMed Central

Maguid, Sandra; Fernandez-Alberti, Sebastian; Ferrelli, Leticia; Echave, Julian

2005-01-01

We present a procedure to explore the global dynamics shared between members of the same protein family. The method allows the comparison of patterns of vibrational motion obtained by Gaussian network model analysis. After the identification of collective coordinates that were conserved during evolution, we quantify the common dynamics within a family. Representative vectors that describe these dynamics are defined using a singular value decomposition approach. As a test case, the globin heme-binding family is considered. The two lowest normal modes are shown to be conserved within this family. Our results encourage the development of models for protein evolution that take into account the conservation of dynamical features. PMID:15749782

The Rise of China in the International Trade Network: A Community Core Detection Approach

PubMed Central

Zhu, Zhen; Cerina, Federica; Chessa, Alessandro; Caldarelli, Guido; Riccaboni, Massimo

2014-01-01

Theory of complex networks proved successful in the description of a variety of complex systems ranging from biology to computer science and to economics and finance. Here we use network models to describe the evolution of a particular economic system, namely the International Trade Network (ITN). Previous studies often assume that globalization and regionalization in international trade are contradictory to each other. We re-examine the relationship between globalization and regionalization by viewing the international trade system as an interdependent complex network. We use the modularity optimization method to detect communities and community cores in the ITN during the years 1995–2011. We find rich dynamics over time both inter- and intra-communities. In particular, the Asia-Oceania community disappeared and reemerged over time along with a switch in leadership from Japan to China. We provide a multilevel description of the evolution of the network where the global dynamics (i.e., communities disappear or reemerge) and the regional dynamics (i.e., community core changes between community members) are related. Moreover, simulation results show that the global dynamics can be generated by a simple dynamic-edge-weight mechanism. PMID:25136895

The rise of China in the International Trade Network: a community core detection approach.

PubMed

Zhu, Zhen; Cerina, Federica; Chessa, Alessandro; Caldarelli, Guido; Riccaboni, Massimo

2014-01-01

Theory of complex networks proved successful in the description of a variety of complex systems ranging from biology to computer science and to economics and finance. Here we use network models to describe the evolution of a particular economic system, namely the International Trade Network (ITN). Previous studies often assume that globalization and regionalization in international trade are contradictory to each other. We re-examine the relationship between globalization and regionalization by viewing the international trade system as an interdependent complex network. We use the modularity optimization method to detect communities and community cores in the ITN during the years 1995-2011. We find rich dynamics over time both inter- and intra-communities. In particular, the Asia-Oceania community disappeared and reemerged over time along with a switch in leadership from Japan to China. We provide a multilevel description of the evolution of the network where the global dynamics (i.e., communities disappear or reemerge) and the regional dynamics (i.e., community core changes between community members) are related. Moreover, simulation results show that the global dynamics can be generated by a simple dynamic-edge-weight mechanism.

Synergistic Effects of Temperature, Oxidation and Multicracking Modes on Damage Evolution and Life Prediction of 2D Woven Ceramic-Matrix Composites under Tension-Tension Fatigue Loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longbiao, Li

2017-08-01

In this paper, the synergistic effects of temperature, oxidation and multicracking modes on damage evolution and life prediction in 2D woven ceramic-matrix composites (CMCs) have been investigated. The damage parameter of fatigue hysteresis dissipated energy and the interface shear stress were used to monitor the damage evolution inside of CMCs. Under cyclic fatigue loading, the fibers broken fraction was determined by combining the interface/fiber oxidation model, interface wear model and fibers statistical failure model at elevated temperature, based on the assumption that the fiber strength is subjected to two-parameter Weibull distribution and the load carried by broken and intact fibers satisfy the Global Load Sharing (GLS) criterion. When the broken fibers fraction approaches to the critical value, the composite fatigue fractures. The evolution of fatigue hysteresis dissipated energy, the interface shear stress and broken fibers fraction versus cycle number, and the fatigue life S-N curves of SiC/SiC at 1000, 1200 and 1300 °C in air and steam condition have been predicted. The synergistic effects of temperature, oxidation, fatigue peak stress, and multicracking modes on the evolution of interface shear stress and fatigue hysteresis dissipated energy versus cycle numbers curves have been analyzed.

Multiple-Objective Stepwise Calibration Using Luca

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, Lauren E.; Umemoto, Makiko

2007-01-01

This report documents Luca (Let us calibrate), a multiple-objective, stepwise, automated procedure for hydrologic model calibration and the associated graphical user interface (GUI). Luca is a wizard-style user-friendly GUI that provides an easy systematic way of building and executing a calibration procedure. The calibration procedure uses the Shuffled Complex Evolution global search algorithm to calibrate any model compiled with the U.S. Geological Survey's Modular Modeling System. This process assures that intermediate and final states of the model are simulated consistently with measured values.

Nonconvex Model of Material Growth: Mathematical Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganghoffer, J. F.; Plotnikov, P. I.; Sokolowski, J.

2018-06-01

The model of volumetric material growth is introduced in the framework of finite elasticity. The new results obtained for the model are presented with complete proofs. The state variables include the deformations, temperature and the growth factor matrix function. The existence of global in time solutions for the quasistatic deformations boundary value problem coupled with the energy balance and the evolution of the growth factor is shown. The mathematical results can be applied to a wide class of growth models in mechanics and biology.

Evolution of Pre-Main Sequence Accretion Disks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartmann, Lee W.

2004-01-01

The aim of this project is to develop a comprehensive global picture of the physical conditions in, and evolutionary timescales of, pre-main sequence accretion disks. The results of this work will help constrain the initial conditions for planet formation. To this end we are developing much larger samples of 3-10 Myr-old stars to provide better empirical constraints on protoplanetary disk evolution; measuring disk accretion rates in these systems; and constructing detailed model disk structures consistent with observations to infer physical conditions such as grain growth in protoplanetary disks.

Evolution of Pre-Main Sequence Accretion Disks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartmann, Lee W.

2003-01-01

The aim of this project is to develop a comprehensive global picture of the physical conditions in, and evolutionary timescales of, pre-main sequence accretion disks. The results of this work will help constrain the initial conditions for planet formation. To this end we are developing much larger samples of 3-10 Myr-old stars to provide better empirical constraints on protoplanetary disk evolution; measuring disk accretion rates in these systems; and constructing detailed model disk structures consistent with observations to infer physical conditions such as grain growth in protoplanetary disks.

Evolution of Pre-Main Sequence Accretion Disks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartmann, Lee W.

2005-01-01

The aim of this project was to develop a comprehensive global picture of the physical conditions in, and evolutionary timescales of, premain sequence accretion disks. The results of this work will help constrain the initial conditions for planet formation. To this end we developed much larger samples of 3-10 Myr-old stars to provide better empirical constraints on protoplanetary disk evolution; measured disk accretion rates in these systems; and constructed detailed model disk structures consistent with observations to infer physical conditions such as grain growth in protoplanetary disks.

Studies of Circumstellar Disk Evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartmann, Lee W.

2005-01-01

The aim of this project is to develop a comprehensive global picture of the physical conditions in, and evolutionary timescales of, pre-main sequence accretion disks. The results of this work will help constrain the initial conditions for planet formation. To this end we are developing much larger samples of 3-10 Myr-old stars to provide better empirical constraints on protoplanetary disk evolution; measuring disk accretion rates in these systems; and constructing detailed model disk structures consistent with observations to infer physical conditions such as grain growth in protoplanetary disks.

A model of early formation of uranium molecular oxides in laser-ablated plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finko, Mikhail S.; Curreli, Davide; Weisz, David G.; Crowhurst, Jonathan C.; Rose, Timothy P.; Koroglu, Batikan; Radousky, Harry B.; Armstrong, Michael R.

2017-12-01

In this work, we present a newly constructed U x O y reaction mechanism that consists of 30 reaction channels (21 of which are reversible channels) for 11 uranium molecular species (including ions). Both the selection of reaction channels and calculation of corresponding rate coefficients is accomplished via a comprehensive literature review and application of basic reaction rate theory. The reaction mechanism is supplemented by a detailed description of oxygen plasma chemistry (19 species and 142 reaction channels) and is used to model an atmospheric laser ablated uranium plume via a 0D (global) model. The global model is used to analyze the evolution of key uranium molecular species predicted by the reaction mechanism, and the initial stage of formation of uranium oxide species.

Earth survey applications division: Research leading to the effective use of space technology in applications relating to the Earth's surface and interior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, L. (Editor)

1980-01-01

Accomplishments and future plans are described for the following areas: (1) geology - geobotanical indicators and geopotential data; (2) modeling magnetic fields; (3) modeling the structure, composition, and evolution of the Earth's crust; (4) global and regional motions of the Earth's crust and earthquake occurrence; (5) modeling geopotential from satellite tracking data; (6) modeling the Earth's gravity field; (7) global Earth dynamics; (8) sea surface topography, ocean dynamics; and geophysical interpretation; (9) land cover and land use; (10) physical and remote sensing attributes important in detecting, measuring, and monitoring agricultural crops; (11) prelaunch studies using LANDSAT D; (12) the multispectral linear array; (13) the aircraft linear array pushbroom radiometer; and (14) the spaceborne laser ranging system.

The Role of Model and Initial Condition Error in Numerical Weather Forecasting Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prive, Nikki C.; Errico, Ronald M.

2013-01-01

A series of experiments that explore the roles of model and initial condition error in numerical weather prediction are performed using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO). The use of an OSSE allows the analysis and forecast errors to be explicitly calculated, and different hypothetical observing networks can be tested with ease. In these experiments, both a full global OSSE framework and an 'identical twin' OSSE setup are utilized to compare the behavior of the data assimilation system and evolution of forecast skill with and without model error. The initial condition error is manipulated by varying the distribution and quality of the observing network and the magnitude of observation errors. The results show that model error has a strong impact on both the quality of the analysis field and the evolution of forecast skill, including both systematic and unsystematic model error components. With a realistic observing network, the analysis state retains a significant quantity of error due to systematic model error. If errors of the analysis state are minimized, model error acts to rapidly degrade forecast skill during the first 24-48 hours of forward integration. In the presence of model error, the impact of observation errors on forecast skill is small, but in the absence of model error, observation errors cause a substantial degradation of the skill of medium range forecasts.

Evolution of Indian land surface biases in the seasonal hindcasts from the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecasting System GloSea5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chevuturi, Amulya; Turner, Andrew G.; Woolnoug, Steve J.; Martin, Gill

2017-04-01

In this study we investigate the development of biases over the Indian region in summer hindcasts of the UK Met Office coupled initialised global seasonal forecasting system, GloSea5-GC2. Previous work has demonstrated the rapid evolution of strong monsoon circulation biases over India from seasonal forecasts initialised in early May, together with coupled strong easterly wind biases on the equator. These mean state biases lead to strong precipitation errors during the monsoon over the subcontinent. We analyse a set of three springtime start dates for the 20-year hindcast period (1992-2011) and fifteen total ensemble members for each year. We use comparisons with variety of observations to assess the evolution of the mean state biases over the Indian land surface. All biases within the model develop rapidly, particularly surface heat and radiation flux biases. Strong biases are present within the model climatology from pre-monsoon (May) in the surface heat fluxes over India (higher sensible / lower latent heat fluxes) when compared to observed estimates. The early evolution of such biases prior to onset rains suggests possible problems with the land surface scheme or soil moisture errors. Further analysis of soil moisture over the Indian land surface shows a dry bias present from the beginning of the hindcasts during the pre-monsoon. This lasts until the after the monsoon develops (July) after which there is a wet bias over the region. Soil moisture used for initialization of the model also shows a dry bias when compared against the observed estimates, which may lead to the same in the model. The early dry bias in the model may reduce local moisture availability through surface evaporation and thus may possibly limit precipitation recycling. On this premise, we identify and test the sensitivity of the monsoon in the model against higher soil moisture forcing. We run sensitivity experiments initiated using gridpoint-wise annual soil moisture maxima over the Indian land surface as input for experiments in the atmosphere-only version of the model. We plan to analyse the response of the sensitivity experiments on seasonal forecasting of surface heat fluxes and subsequently monsoon precipitation.

Exploring equivalence domain in nonlinear inverse problems using Covariance Matrix Adaption Evolution Strategy (CMAES) and random sampling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grayver, Alexander V.; Kuvshinov, Alexey V.

2016-05-01

This paper presents a methodology to sample equivalence domain (ED) in nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE)-constrained inverse problems. For this purpose, we first applied state-of-the-art stochastic optimization algorithm called Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMAES) to identify low-misfit regions of the model space. These regions were then randomly sampled to create an ensemble of equivalent models and quantify uncertainty. CMAES is aimed at exploring model space globally and is robust on very ill-conditioned problems. We show that the number of iterations required to converge grows at a moderate rate with respect to number of unknowns and the algorithm is embarrassingly parallel. We formulated the problem by using the generalized Gaussian distribution. This enabled us to seamlessly use arbitrary norms for residual and regularization terms. We show that various regularization norms facilitate studying different classes of equivalent solutions. We further show how performance of the standard Metropolis-Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm can be substantially improved by using information CMAES provides. This methodology was tested by using individual and joint inversions of magneotelluric, controlled-source electromagnetic (EM) and global EM induction data.

Future evolution in a backreaction model and the analogous scalar field cosmology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ali, Amna; Majumdar, A.S., E-mail: amnaalig@gmail.com, E-mail: archan@bose.res.in

We investigate the future evolution of the universe using the Buchert framework for averaged backreaction in the context of a two-domain partition of the universe. We show that this approach allows for the possibility of the global acceleration vanishing at a finite future time, provided that none of the subdomains accelerate individually. The model at large scales is analogously described in terms of a homogeneous scalar field emerging with a potential that is fixed and free from phenomenological parametrization. The dynamics of this scalar field is explored in the analogous FLRW cosmology. We use observational data from Type Ia Supernovae,more » Baryon Acoustic Oscillations, and Cosmic Microwave Background to constrain the parameters of the model for a viable cosmology, providing the corresponding likelihood contours.« less

Chemical differentiation, thermal evolution, and catastrophic overturn on Venus: Predictions and geologic observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Head, James W.; Parmentier, E. M.; Hess, P. C.

1993-01-01

Observations from Magellan show that: (1) the surface of Venus is generally geologically young, (2) there is no evidence for widespread recent crustal spreading or subduction, (3) the crater population permits the hypothesis that the surface is in production, and (4) relatively few impact craters appear to be embayed by volcanic deposits suggesting that the volcanic flux has drastically decreased as a function of time. These observations have led to consideration of hypotheses suggesting that the geological history of Venus may have changed dramatically as a function of time due to general thermal evolution, and/or thermal and chemical evolution of a depleted mantle layer, perhaps punctuated by catastrophic overturn of upper layers or episodic plate tectonics. We have previously examined the geological implications of some of these models, and here we review the predictions associated with two periods of Venus history. Stationary thick lithosphere and depleted mantle layer, and development of regional to global development of regional to global instabilities, and compare these predictions to the geological characteristics of Venus revealed by Magellan.

Compendium of NASA Data Base for the Global Tropospheric Experiment's Transport and Chemical Evolution Over the Pacific (TRACE-P). Volume 2; P-3B

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kleb, Mary M.; Scott, A. Donald, Jr.

2003-01-01

This report provides a compendium of NASA aircraft data that are available from NASA's Global Tropospheric Experiment's (GTE) Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) Mission. The broad goal of TRACE-P was to characterize the transit and evolution of the Asian outflow over the western Pacific. Conducted from February 24 through April 10, 2001, TRACE-P integrated airborne, satellite- and ground based observations, as well as forecasts from aerosol and chemistry models. The format of this compendium utilizes data plots (time series) of selected data acquired aboard the NASA/Dryden DC-8 (vol. 1) and NASA/Wallops P-3B (vol. 2) aircraft during TRACE-P. The purpose of this document is to provide a representation of aircraft data that are available in archived format via NASA Langley's Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) and through the GTE Project Office archive. The data format is not intended to support original research/analyses, but to assist the reader in identifying data that are of interest.

Compendium of NASA Data Base for the Global Tropospheric Experiment's Transport and Chemical Evolution Over the Pacific (TRACE-P). Volume 1; DC-8

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kleb, Mary M.; Scott, A. Donald, Jr.

2003-01-01

This report provides a compendium of NASA aircraft data that are available from NASA's Global Tropospheric Experiment's (GTE) Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) Mission. The broad goal of TRACE-P was to characterize the transit and evolution of the Asian outflow over the western Pacific. Conducted from February 24 through April 10, 2001, TRACE-P integrated airborne, satellite- and ground-based observations, as well as forecasts from aerosol and chemistry models. The format of this compendium utilizes data plots (time series) of selected data acquired aboard the NASA/Dryden DC-8 (vol. 1) and NASA/Wallops P-3B (vol. 2) aircraft during TRACE-P. The purpose of this document is to provide a representation of aircraft data that are available in archived format via NASA Langley s Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) and through the GTE Project Office archive. The data format is not intended to support original research/analyses, but to assist the reader in identifying data that are of interest.

An adaptive multi-feature segmentation model for infrared image

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Tingting; Han, Jin; Zhang, Yi; Bai, Lianfa

2016-04-01

Active contour models (ACM) have been extensively applied to image segmentation, conventional region-based active contour models only utilize global or local single feature information to minimize the energy functional to drive the contour evolution. Considering the limitations of original ACMs, an adaptive multi-feature segmentation model is proposed to handle infrared images with blurred boundaries and low contrast. In the proposed model, several essential local statistic features are introduced to construct a multi-feature signed pressure function (MFSPF). In addition, we draw upon the adaptive weight coefficient to modify the level set formulation, which is formed by integrating MFSPF with local statistic features and signed pressure function with global information. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can make up for the inadequacy of the original method and get desirable results in segmenting infrared images.

Numerical Parameter Optimization of the Ignition and Growth Model for HMX Based Plastic Bonded Explosives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gambino, James; Tarver, Craig; Springer, H. Keo; White, Bradley; Fried, Laurence

2017-06-01

We present a novel method for optimizing parameters of the Ignition and Growth reactive flow (I&G) model for high explosives. The I&G model can yield accurate predictions of experimental observations. However, calibrating the model is a time-consuming task especially with multiple experiments. In this study, we couple the differential evolution global optimization algorithm to simulations of shock initiation experiments in the multi-physics code ALE3D. We develop parameter sets for HMX based explosives LX-07 and LX-10. The optimization finds the I&G model parameters that globally minimize the difference between calculated and experimental shock time of arrival at embedded pressure gauges. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. DOE by LLNL under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNS, LLC LLNL-ABS- 724898.

Prospects for development of unified global flood observation and prediction systems (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lettenmaier, D. P.

2013-12-01

Floods are among the most damaging of natural hazards, with global flood losses in 2011 alone estimated to have exceeded $100B. Historically, flood economic damages have been highest in the developed world (due in part to encroachment on historical flood plains), but loss of life, and human impacts have been greatest in the developing world. However, as the 2011 Thailand floods show, industrializing countries, many of which do not have well developed flood protection systems, are increasingly vulnerable to economic damages as they become more industrialized. At present, unified global flood observation and prediction systems are in their infancy; notwithstanding that global weather forecasting is a mature field. The summary for this session identifies two evolving capabilities that hold promise for development of more sophisticated global flood forecast systems: global hydrologic models and satellite remote sensing (primarily of precipitation, but also of flood inundation). To this I would add the increasing sophistication and accuracy of global precipitation analysis (and forecast) fields from numerical weather prediction models. In this brief overview, I will review progress in all three areas, and especially the evolution of hydrologic data assimilation which integrates modeling and data sources. I will also comment on inter-governmental and inter-agency cooperation, and related issues that have impeded progress in the development and utilization of global flood observation and prediction systems.

Effects of Combined Stellar Feedback on Star Formation in Stellar Clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wall, Joshua Edward; McMillan, Stephen; Pellegrino, Andrew; Mac Low, Mordecai; Klessen, Ralf; Portegies Zwart, Simon

2018-01-01

We present results of hybrid MHD+N-body simulations of star cluster formation and evolution including self consistent feedback from the stars in the form of radiation, winds, and supernovae from all stars more massive than 7 solar masses. The MHD is modeled with the adaptive mesh refinement code FLASH, while the N-body computations are done with a direct algorithm. Radiation is modeled using ray tracing along long characteristics in directions distributed using the HEALPIX algorithm, and causes ionization and momentum deposition, while winds and supernova conserve momentum and energy during injection. Stellar evolution is followed using power-law fits to evolution models in SeBa. We use a gravity bridge within the AMUSE framework to couple the N-body dynamics of the stars to the gas dynamics in FLASH. Feedback from the massive stars alters the structure of young clusters as gas ejection occurs. We diagnose this behavior by distinguishing between fractal distribution and central clustering using a Q parameter computed from the minimum spanning tree of each model cluster. Global effects of feedback in our simulations will also be discussed.

Education and Poverty in the Global Development Agenda: Emergence, Evolution and Consolidation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tarabini, Aina

2010-01-01

The objective of this paper is to analyse the role of education and poverty in the current global development agenda. It intends to analyse the emergence, evolution and consolidation of a global agenda, which attributes a key role to education in the fight against poverty. With this objective, the paper addresses four main issues: first, it…

Using Global Plate Velocity Boundary Conditions for Embedded Regional Geodynamic Models: Application to 3-D Modeling of the Early Rifting of the South Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taramón, Jorge M.; Morgan, Jason P.; Pérez-Gussinyé, Marta

2016-04-01

The treatment of far-field boundary conditions is one of the most poorly resolved issues for regional modeling of geodynamic processes. In viscous flow, the choice of far-field boundary conditions often strongly shapes the large-scale structure of a geosimulation. The mantle velocity field along the sidewalls and base of a modeling region is typically much more poorly known than the geometry of past global motions of the surface plates as constrained by global plate motion reconstructions. For regional rifting models it has become routine to apply highly simplified 'plate spreading' or 'uniform rifting' boundary conditions to a 3-D model that limits its ability to simulate the geodynamic evolution of a specific rifted margin. One way researchers are exploring the sensitivity of regional models to uncertain boundary conditions is to use a nested modeling approach in which a global model is used to determine a large-scale flow pattern that is imposed as a constraint along the boundaries of the region to be modeled. Here we explore the utility of a different approach that takes advantage of the ability of finite element models to use unstructured meshes than can embed much higher resolution sub-regions. Here we demonstrate the workflow and code tools that we created to generate this unstructured mesh: solver based on springs, guide-mesh and routines to improve the quality, e.g., closeness to a regular tetrahedron, of the tetrahedral elements of the mesh. Note that the same routines are used to generate a new mesh in the remeshing of a distorted Lagrangian mesh. In our initial project to validate this approach, we create a global spherical shell mesh in which a higher resolution sub-region is created around the nascent South Atlantic Rifting Margin. Global Plate motion BCs and plate boundaries are applied for the time of the onset of rifting, continuing through several 10s of Ma of rifting. Thermal, compositional, and melt-related buoyancy forces are only non-zero within the high-resolution sub-region, elsewhere, motions are constrained by surface plate-motion constraints. The total number of unknowns needed to solve an embedded regional model with this approach is less than 1/3 larger than that needed for a structured-mesh solution on a Cartesian or spherical cap sub-regional mesh. Here we illustrate the steps within this workflow for modeling the potential mantle flow associated with the early rifting evolution of the South Atlantic, in particular studying the potential effects of a 'Parana Plume' during the transition from rift to drift.

Self-Consistent Ring Current Modeling with Propagating Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves in the Presence of Heavy Ions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khazanov, G. V.; Gamayunov, K. V.; Gallagher, D. L.; Kozyra, J. U.; Liemohn, M. W.

2006-01-01

The self-consistent treatment of the RC ion dynamics and EMlC waves, which are thought to exert important influences on the ion dynamical evolution, is an important missing element in our understanding of the storm-and recovery-time ring current evolution. Under certain conditions, relativistic electrons, with energies greater than or equal to 1 MeV, can be removed from the outer radiation belt by EMlC wave scattering during a magnetic storm (Summers and Thorne, 2003; Albert, 2003). That is why the modeling of EMlC waves is critical and timely issue in magnetospheric physics. This study will generalize the self-consistent theoretical description of RC ions and EMlC waves that has been developed by Khazanov et al. [2002, 2003] and include the heavy ions and propagation effects of EMlC waves in the global dynamic of self-consistent RC - EMlC waves coupling. The results of our newly developed model that will be presented at Huntsville 2006 meeting, focusing mainly on the dynamic of EMlC waves and comparison of these results with the previous global RC modeling studies devoted to EMlC waves formation. We also discuss RC ion precipitations and wave induced thermal electron fluxes into the ionosphere.

Modeling resistive wall modes and disruptive instabilities with M3D-C1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferraro, Nm; Jardin, Sc; Pfefferle, D.

2016-10-01

Disruptive instabilities pose a significant challenge to the tokamak approach to magnetic fusion energy, and must be reliably avoided in a successful reactor. These instabilities generally involve rapid, global changes to the magnetic field, and electromagnetic interaction with surrounding conducting structures. Here we apply the extended-MHD code M3D-C1 to calculate the stability and evolution of disruptive modes, including their interaction with external conducting structures. The M3D-C1 model includes the effects of resistivity, equilibrium rotation, and resistive walls of arbitrary thickness, each of which may play important roles in the stability and evolution of disruptive modes. The strong stabilizing effect of rotation on resistive wall modes is explored and compared with analytic theory. The nonlinear evolution of vertical displacement events is also considered, including the evolution of non-axisymmetric instabilities that may arise during the current-quench phase of the disruption. It is found that the non-axisymmetric stability of the plasma during a VDE depends strongly on the thermal history of the plasma. This work is supported by US DOE Grant DE-AC02-09CH11466 and the SciDAC Center for Extended MHD Modeling.

Towards physical principles of biological evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katsnelson, Mikhail I.; Wolf, Yuri I.; Koonin, Eugene V.

2018-03-01

Biological systems reach organizational complexity that far exceeds the complexity of any known inanimate objects. Biological entities undoubtedly obey the laws of quantum physics and statistical mechanics. However, is modern physics sufficient to adequately describe, model and explain the evolution of biological complexity? Detailed parallels have been drawn between statistical thermodynamics and the population-genetic theory of biological evolution. Based on these parallels, we outline new perspectives on biological innovation and major transitions in evolution, and introduce a biological equivalent of thermodynamic potential that reflects the innovation propensity of an evolving population. Deep analogies have been suggested to also exist between the properties of biological entities and processes, and those of frustrated states in physics, such as glasses. Such systems are characterized by frustration whereby local state with minimal free energy conflict with the global minimum, resulting in ‘emergent phenomena’. We extend such analogies by examining frustration-type phenomena, such as conflicts between different levels of selection, in biological evolution. These frustration effects appear to drive the evolution of biological complexity. We further address evolution in multidimensional fitness landscapes from the point of view of percolation theory and suggest that percolation at level above the critical threshold dictates the tree-like evolution of complex organisms. Taken together, these multiple connections between fundamental processes in physics and biology imply that construction of a meaningful physical theory of biological evolution might not be a futile effort. However, it is unrealistic to expect that such a theory can be created in one scoop; if it ever comes to being, this can only happen through integration of multiple physical models of evolutionary processes. Furthermore, the existing framework of theoretical physics is unlikely to suffice for adequate modeling of the biological level of complexity, and new developments within physics itself are likely to be required.

Simple versus complex models of trait evolution and stasis as a response to environmental change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunt, Gene; Hopkins, Melanie J.; Lidgard, Scott

2015-04-01

Previous analyses of evolutionary patterns, or modes, in fossil lineages have focused overwhelmingly on three simple models: stasis, random walks, and directional evolution. Here we use likelihood methods to fit an expanded set of evolutionary models to a large compilation of ancestor-descendant series of populations from the fossil record. In addition to the standard three models, we assess more complex models with punctuations and shifts from one evolutionary mode to another. As in previous studies, we find that stasis is common in the fossil record, as is a strict version of stasis that entails no real evolutionary changes. Incidence of directional evolution is relatively low (13%), but higher than in previous studies because our analytical approach can more sensitively detect noisy trends. Complex evolutionary models are often favored, overwhelmingly so for sequences comprising many samples. This finding is consistent with evolutionary dynamics that are, in reality, more complex than any of the models we consider. Furthermore, the timing of shifts in evolutionary dynamics varies among traits measured from the same series. Finally, we use our empirical collection of evolutionary sequences and a long and highly resolved proxy for global climate to inform simulations in which traits adaptively track temperature changes over time. When realistically calibrated, we find that this simple model can reproduce important aspects of our paleontological results. We conclude that observed paleontological patterns, including the prevalence of stasis, need not be inconsistent with adaptive evolution, even in the face of unstable physical environments.

Validation of an LES Model for Soot Evolution against DNS Data in Turbulent Jet Flames

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, Michael

2012-11-01

An integrated modeling approach for soot evolution in turbulent reacting flows is validated against three-dimensional Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) data in a set of n-heptane nonpremixed temporal jet flames. As in the DNS study, the evolution of the soot population is described statistically with the Hybrid Method of Moments (HMOM). The oxidation of the fuel and formation of soot precursors are described with the Radiation Flamelet/Progress Variable (RFPV) model that includes an additional transport equation for Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAH) to account for the slow chemistry governing these species. In addition, the small-scale interactions between soot, chemistry, and turbulence are described with a presumed subfilter PDF approach that accounts for the very large spatial intermittency characterizing soot in turbulent reacting flows. The DNS dataset includes flames at three different Damköhler numbers to study the influence of global mixing rates on the evolution of PAH and soot. In this work, the ability of the model to capture these trends quantitatively as Damköhler number varies is investigated. In order to reliably assess the LES approach, the LES is initialized from the filtered DNS data after an initial transitional period in an effort to minimize the hydrodynamic differences between the DNS and the LES.

Antibodies production and the maintenance of the immunological memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Castro, A.

2006-02-01

In this work we have considered the R. Nayak et al. [Immunology 102, 387 (2001)] biological model - Relay Hypothesis - to study the time evolution of the clonal repertoire, including the populations of antibodies. Our results suggest that the decrease of the production of antibodies favors the global maintenance of immune memory.

Solar magnetic fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hood, Alan W.; Hughes, David W.

2011-08-01

This review provides an introduction to the generation and evolution of the Sun's magnetic field, summarising both observational evidence and theoretical models. The eleven year solar cycle, which is well known from a variety of observed quantities, strongly supports the idea of a large-scale solar dynamo. Current theoretical ideas on the location and mechanism of this dynamo are presented. The solar cycle influences the behaviour of the global coronal magnetic field and it is the eruptions of this field that can impact on the Earth's environment. These global coronal variations can be modelled to a surprising degree of accuracy. Recent high resolution observations of the Sun's magnetic field in quiet regions, away from sunspots, show that there is a continual evolution of a small-scale magnetic field, presumably produced by small-scale dynamo action in the solar interior. Sunspots, a natural consequence of the large-scale dynamo, emerge, evolve and disperse over a period of several days. Numerical simulations can help to determine the physical processes governing the emergence of sunspots. We discuss the interaction of these emerging fields with the pre-existing coronal field, resulting in a variety of dynamic phenomena.

Finding a planet's heartbeat: surprising results from patient Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stamenkovic, Vlada; Ward, Lewis; Fischer, Woodward; Russell, Michael J.

2016-10-01

We explore, from a 3D time-dependent perspective, the evolution of oxidizing and reducing planetary niches and how they form a planetary-scale redox network - from a planet's deep interior to its atmosphere. Such redox networks are similar to the circulatory system of animals, but instead of pressure gradients redox gradients drive the flow of electrons and create hotspots for nutrients and metabolic activity.Using time-dependent geodynamic and atmospheric models, we compute for Mars the time-dependent 3D distribution of 1) hydrogen- and methane-rich reducing subsurface environments, driven by serpentinization and radiolysis of water, and 2) oxygen-rich oases as a product of atmosphere-brine interactions governed by climate and surface chemistry.This is only a first step towards our greater goal to globally model the evolution of local redox environments through time for rocky planets. However, already now our preliminary results show where on Mars oxidizing and reducing oases might have existed and might still exist today. This opens the window to search for extinct and extant life on Mars from a probabilistic global 3D perspective.

Dynamical Evolution of the Inner Heliosphere Approaching Solar Activity Maximum: Interpreting Ulysses Observations Using a Global MHD Model. Appendix 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Riley, Pete; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.

2003-01-01

In this study we describe a series of MHD simulations covering the time period from 12 January 1999 to 19 September 2001 (Carrington Rotation 1945 to 1980). This interval coincided with: (1) the Sun s approach toward solar maximum; and (2) Ulysses second descent to the southern polar regions, rapid latitude scan, and arrival into the northern polar regions. We focus on the evolution of several key parameters during this time, including the photospheric magnetic field, the computed coronal hole boundaries, the computed velocity profile near the Sun, and the plasma and magnetic field parameters at the location of Ulysses. The model results provide a global context for interpreting the often complex in situ measurements. We also present a heuristic explanation of stream dynamics to describe the morphology of interaction regions at solar maximum and contrast it with the picture that resulted from Ulysses first orbit, which occurred during more quiescent solar conditions. The simulation results described here are available at: http://sun.saic.com.

Bounds on Lithospheric Thickness on Venus from Magellan Gravity and Topography Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Catherine L.; Sandwell, David

1997-01-01

The primary objective of the work executed under NAGW-4784 is to provide constraints on the thermal and tectonic evolution of Venus. Establishing thermal and tectonic evolution models requires not only geological, but geophysical constraints, in particular the nature of temporal and spatial variations in crustal and lithospheric thickness. The major topics of study completed under NAGW-4784 (described more fully below) are: (1) detailed analyses of the resolution of Magellan Line-Of-Site (LOS) Doppler data to establish the minimum resolvable wavelength in the gravity data; (2) calculations of the global strain field in the venusian lithosphere and comparisons with global strain patterns from geological mapping; (3) study of the geological history of coronae at E. Eistla Regio; (4) estimation of crustal and lithospheric thickness by modeling of topography at asymmetric and symmetric rift-like chasmata; (5) preliminary investigations of spatial versus temporal variations in lithospheric thickness. Both the PI and Co-I have presented papers based on these topics at national and international meetings (American Geophysical Union Meetings, Lunar and Planetary Science Conferences, Chapman Conference on the Geodynamics of Venus).

Is globalization undermining the welfare state? The evolution of the welfare state in developed capitalist countries during the 1990s.

PubMed

Navarro, Vicente; Schmitt, John; Astudillo, Javier

2004-01-01

The authors analyze the evolution of macro-indicators of social and economic well-being during the 1990s in the majority of developed capitalist countries, grouped according to their dominant political traditions since the end of World War II. Their analysis shows that, despite the economic globalization of commerce and finance, "politics still matters" in explaining the evolution of the welfare states and labor markets in these countries; the impact of the globalization of financial capital in forcing reductions in the financial resources available for welfare state purposes has been exaggerated.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Fitness Analysis of Global Oil Market: Based on Complex Network

PubMed Central

Wang, Minggang; Fang, Guochang; Shao, Shuai

2016-01-01

We study the overall topological structure properties of global oil trade network, such as degree, strength, cumulative distribution, information entropy and weight clustering. The structural evolution of the network is investigated as well. We find the global oil import and export networks do not show typical scale-free distribution, but display disassortative property. Furthermore, based on the monthly data of oil import values during 2005.01–2014.12, by applying random matrix theory, we investigate the complex spatiotemporal dynamic from the country level and fitness evolution of the global oil market from a demand-side analysis. Abundant information about global oil market can be obtained from deviating eigenvalues. The result shows that the oil market has experienced five different periods, which is consistent with the evolution of country clusters. Moreover, we find the changing trend of fitness function agrees with that of gross domestic product (GDP), and suggest that the fitness evolution of oil market can be predicted by forecasting GDP values. To conclude, some suggestions are provided according to the results. PMID:27706147

Improving Secondary Organic Aerosol (SOA) Models using Global Sensitivity Analysis and by Comparison to Chamber Data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, D. O.; Brune, W. H.

2017-12-01

Accurate estimates of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from atmospheric models is a major research challenge due to the complexity of the chemical and physical processes involved in the SOA formation and continuous aging. The primary uncertainties of SOA models include those associated with the formation of gas-phase products, the conversion between gas phase and particle phase, the aging mechanisms of SOA, and other processes related to the heterogeneous and particle-phase reactions. To address this challenge, we us a modular modeling framework that combines both simple and near-explicit gas-phase reactions and a two-dimensional volatility basis set (2D-VBS) to simulate the formation and evolution of SOA. Global sensitivity analysis is used to assess the relative importance of the model input parameters. In addition, the model is compared to the measurements from the Focused Isoprene eXperiment at the California Institute of Technology (FIXCIT).

Numerical modeling of the thin shallow solar dynamo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Bryan, J. B.; Jarboe, T. R.

2017-10-01

Nonlinear, numerical computation with the NIMROD code is used to explore and validate the thin shallow solar dynamo model [T.R. Jarboe et al. 2017], which explains the observed global temporal evolution (e.g. magnetic field reversal) and local surface structures (e.g. sunspots) of the sun. The key feature of this model is the presence and magnetic self-organization of global magnetic structures (GMS) lying just below the surface of the sun, which resemble 1D radial Taylor states of size comparable to the supergranule convection cells. First, we seek to validate the thin shallow solar dynamo model by reproducing the 11 year timescale for reversal of the solar magnetic field. Then, we seek to model formation of GMS from convection zone turbulence. Our computations simulate a slab covering a radial depth 3Mm and include differential rotation and gravity. Density, temperature, and resistivity profiles are taken from the Christensen-Dalsgaard model.

Evolution Under Environmental Stress at Macro- and Microscales

PubMed Central

Nevo, Eviatar

2011-01-01

Environmental stress has played a major role in the evolution of living organisms (Hoffman AA, Parsons PA. 1991. Evolutionary genetics and environmental stress. Oxford: Oxford University Press; Parsons PA. 2005. Environments and evolution: interactions between stress, resource inadequacy, and energetic efficiency. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc. 80:589–610). This is reflected by the massive and background extinctions in evolutionary time (Nevo E. 1995a. Evolution and extinction. Encyclopedia of Environmental Biology. New York: Academic Press, Inc. 1:717–745). The interaction between organism and environment is central in evolution. Extinction ensues when organisms fail to change and adapt to the constantly altering abiotic and biotic stressful environmental changes as documented in the fossil record. Extreme environmental stress causes extinction but also leads to evolutionary change and the origination of new species adapted to new environments. I will discuss a few of these global, regional, and local stresses based primarily on my own research programs. These examples will include the 1) global regional and local experiment of subterranean mammals; 2) regional experiment of fungal life in the Dead Sea; 3) evolution of wild cereals; 4) “Evolution Canyon”; 5) human brain evolution, and 6) global warming. PMID:21979157

Evolution under environmental stress at macro- and microscales.

PubMed

Nevo, Eviatar

2011-01-01

Environmental stress has played a major role in the evolution of living organisms (Hoffman AA, Parsons PA. 1991. Evolutionary genetics and environmental stress. Oxford: Oxford University Press; Parsons PA. 2005. Environments and evolution: interactions between stress, resource inadequacy, and energetic efficiency. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc. 80:589-610). This is reflected by the massive and background extinctions in evolutionary time (Nevo E. 1995a. Evolution and extinction. Encyclopedia of Environmental Biology. New York: Academic Press, Inc. 1:717-745). The interaction between organism and environment is central in evolution. Extinction ensues when organisms fail to change and adapt to the constantly altering abiotic and biotic stressful environmental changes as documented in the fossil record. Extreme environmental stress causes extinction but also leads to evolutionary change and the origination of new species adapted to new environments. I will discuss a few of these global, regional, and local stresses based primarily on my own research programs. These examples will include the 1) global regional and local experiment of subterranean mammals; 2) regional experiment of fungal life in the Dead Sea; 3) evolution of wild cereals; 4) "Evolution Canyon"; 5) human brain evolution, and 6) global warming.

Global effects of interactions on galaxy evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kennicutt, Robert C., Jr.

1990-01-01

Recent observations of the evolutionary properties of paired and interacting galaxies are reviewed, with special emphasis on their global emission properties and star formation rates. Data at several wavelengths provide strong confirmation of the hypothesis, proposed originally by Larson and Tinsley, that interactions trigger global bursts of star formation in galaxies. The nature and properties of the starbursts, and their overall role in galactic evolution are also discussed.

Characterizing the long-range transport of black carbon aerosols during Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) experiment.

PubMed

Verma, Sunita; Worden, John; Payra, Swagata; Jourdain, Line; Shim, Changsub

2009-07-01

A major aircraft experiment Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) mission over the NW Pacific in March-April 2001 was conducted to better understand how outflow from the Asian continent affects the composition of the global atmosphere. In this paper, a global climate model, GEOS-Chem is used to investigate possible black carbon aerosol contributions from TRACE-P region. Our result depicts that absorbing black carbon ("soot") significantly outflow during lifting to the free troposphere through warm conveyor belt and convection associated with this lifting. The GEOS-Chem simulation results show significant transport of black carbon aerosols from Asian regions to the Western Pacific region during the spring season. As estimated by GEOS-Chem simulations, approximately 25% of the black carbon concentrations over the western pacific originate from SE Asia in the spring.

Diversity, structure and convergent evolution of the global sponge microbiome

PubMed Central

Thomas, Torsten; Moitinho-Silva, Lucas; Lurgi, Miguel; Björk, Johannes R.; Easson, Cole; Astudillo-García, Carmen; Olson, Julie B.; Erwin, Patrick M.; López-Legentil, Susanna; Luter, Heidi; Chaves-Fonnegra, Andia; Costa, Rodrigo; Schupp, Peter J.; Steindler, Laura; Erpenbeck, Dirk; Gilbert, Jack; Knight, Rob; Ackermann, Gail; Victor Lopez, Jose; Taylor, Michael W.; Thacker, Robert W.; Montoya, Jose M.; Hentschel, Ute; Webster, Nicole S.

2016-01-01

Sponges (phylum Porifera) are early-diverging metazoa renowned for establishing complex microbial symbioses. Here we present a global Porifera microbiome survey, set out to establish the ecological and evolutionary drivers of these host–microbe interactions. We show that sponges are a reservoir of exceptional microbial diversity and major contributors to the total microbial diversity of the world's oceans. Little commonality in species composition or structure is evident across the phylum, although symbiont communities are characterized by specialists and generalists rather than opportunists. Core sponge microbiomes are stable and characterized by generalist symbionts exhibiting amensal and/or commensal interactions. Symbionts that are phylogenetically unique to sponges do not disproportionally contribute to the core microbiome, and host phylogeny impacts complexity rather than composition of the symbiont community. Our findings support a model of independent assembly and evolution in symbiont communities across the entire host phylum, with convergent forces resulting in analogous community organization and interactions. PMID:27306690

Bringing global gyrokinetic turbulence simulations to the transport timescale using a multiscale approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, Jeffrey B.; LoDestro, Lynda L.; Told, Daniel; Merlo, Gabriele; Ricketson, Lee F.; Campos, Alejandro; Jenko, Frank; Hittinger, Jeffrey A. F.

2018-05-01

The vast separation dividing the characteristic times of energy confinement and turbulence in the core of toroidal plasmas makes first-principles prediction on long timescales extremely challenging. Here we report the demonstration of a multiple-timescale method that enables coupling global gyrokinetic simulations with a transport solver to calculate the evolution of the self-consistent temperature profile. This method, which exhibits resiliency to the intrinsic fluctuations arising in turbulence simulations, holds potential for integrating nonlocal gyrokinetic turbulence simulations into predictive, whole-device models.

Approaches to Legacy System Evolution.

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-12-01

such as migrating legacy systems, to more distributed open environments. This framework draws out the important global issues early in the planning...ongoing system evolution initiatives, for drawing out important global issues early in the planning cycle using the checklists as a guide, and for

Pinatubo Aerosol Evolution: Using Composite Data Sets to Build the Global- to Micro-Scale Picture and Assess Consistency of Different Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, P. B.; Pueschel, R. F.; Livingston, J. M.; Bergstrom, R.; Hamill, P.

1994-01-01

This paper brings together experimental evidence required to build realistic models of the global evolution of physical, chemical, and optical properties of the aerosol resulting from the 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruption. Such models are needed to compute the effects of the aerosol on atmospheric chemistry, dynamics, radiation, and temperature. Whereas there is now a large and growing body of post-Pinatubo measurements by a variety of techniques, some results are in conflict, and a self-consistent, unified picture is needed, along with an assessment of remaining uncertainties. This paper examines data from photometers, radiometers, impactors, optical counters/sizers, and lidars operated on the ground, aircraft, balloons, and spacecraft. Example data sources include: - Tracking sunphotometers and lidars at Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) and on the DC-8 - Particle spectrometers and wire impactors on the ER-2 and DC-8 - Dustsondes (particle counters/sizers on balloons) - SAGE II, SAM II, AVHRR, CLAES, and ISAMS sensors on a variety of satellites. We assess the mutual consistency of these disparate data sets and recommend 'consensus" properties and uncertainties in the process of developing a composite data set. Recommended properties include the spatial and temporal evolution of particle chemical composition, shape, wavelength and temperature-dependent refractive index, size distribution, and optical depth spectra. Supporting references are cited and representative data shown.

Pinatubo Aerosol Evolution: Using Composite Data Sets to Build the Global- To Micro-Scale Picture and Assess Consistency of Different Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, Philip B.; Pueschel, R. F.; Livingston, J. M.; Bergstrom, R.; Hamill, P.; Lawless, James G. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

This paper brings together experimental evidence required to build realistic models of the global evolution of physical, chemical, and optical properties of the aerosol resulting from the 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruption. Such models are needed to compute the effects of the aerosol on atmospheric chemistry, dynamics, radiation, and temperature. Whereas there is now a large and crowing body of post-Pinatubo measurements by a variety of techniques, some results are in conflict, and a self-consistent, unified picture is needed, along with an assessment of remaining uncertainties. This paper examines, data from photometers, radiometers, impactors, optical counter/sizers, and lidars operated on the ground, aircraft, balloons, and spacecraft. Example data sources include: (1) Tracking sunphotometers and lidars at Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) and on the DC-8. (2) Particle spectrometers and wire impactors on the ER-2 and DC-8. (3) Dustsondes (particle counter/sizers on balloons). and (3) SAGE II, SAM II, AVHRR, CLAES, and ISAMS sensors on a variety of satellites. We assess the mutual consistency of these disparate data sets and recommend 'consensus' properties and uncertainties in the process of developing a composite data set. Recommended properties include the spatial and temporal evolution of particle chemical composition, shape, wavelength-and temperature-dependent refractive index, size distribution, and optical depth spectra. Supporting references are cited and representative data shown.

The climatic effects of nuclear war

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turco, R. P.; Toon, O. B.; Ackerman, T. P.; Pollack, J. B.; Sagan, C.

1984-01-01

The effects of various US-USSR nuclear-exchange scenarios on global climate are investigated by means of computer simulations, summarizing the results of Turco et al. (1983) and follow-up studies using 3D global-circulation models. A nuclear-scenario model is used to determine the amounts of dust, smoke, radioactivity, and pyrotoxins generated by a particular type of nuclear exchange (such as a general 5,000-Mt exchange, a 1,000-Mt limited exchange, a 5,000-Mt hard-target counterforce attack, and a 100-Mt attack on cities only): a particle-microphysics model predicts the evolution of the dust and smoke particles; and a radiative-convective climate model estimates the effects of the dust and smoke clouds on the global radiation budget. The findings are presented in graphs, diagrams, and a table. Thick clouds blocking most sunlight over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes for weeks or months and producing ground-temperature reductions of 20-40 C, disruption of global circulation patterns, and rapid spread of clouds to the Southern Hemisphere are among the 'nuclear-winter' effects predicted for the 5,000-Mt baseline case. The catastrophic consequences for plant, animal, and human populations are considered, and the revision of superpower nuclear strategies is urged.

Identifying hidden rate changes in the evolution of a binary morphological character: the evolution of plant habit in campanulid angiosperms.

PubMed

Beaulieu, Jeremy M; O'Meara, Brian C; Donoghue, Michael J

2013-09-01

The growth of phylogenetic trees in scope and in size is promising from the standpoint of understanding a wide variety of evolutionary patterns and processes. With trees comprised of larger, older, and globally distributed clades, it is likely that the lability of a binary character will differ significantly among lineages, which could lead to errors in estimating transition rates and the associated inference of ancestral states. Here we develop and implement a new method for identifying different rates of evolution in a binary character along different branches of a phylogeny. We illustrate this approach by exploring the evolution of growth habit in Campanulidae, a flowering plant clade containing some 35,000 species. The distribution of woody versus herbaceous species calls into question the use of traditional models of binary character evolution. The recognition and accommodation of changes in the rate of growth form evolution in different lineages demonstrates, for the first time, a robust picture of growth form evolution across a very large, very old, and very widespread flowering plant clade.

An online mineral dust model within the global/regional NMMB: current progress and plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez, C.; Haustein, K.; Janjic, Z.; Jorba, O.; Baldasano, J. M.; Black, T.; Nickovic, S.

2008-12-01

While mineral dust distribution and effects are important on global scales, they strongly depend on dust emissions that are occurring on small spatial and temporal scales. Indeed, the accuracy of surface wind speed used in dust models is crucial. Due to the high-order power dependency on wind friction velocity and the threshold behaviour of dust emissions, small errors in surface wind speed lead to large dust emission errors. Most global dust models use prescribed wind fields provided by major meteorological centres (e.g., NCEP and ECMWF) and their spatial resolution is currently about 1 degree x 1 degree . Such wind speeds tend to be strongly underestimated over arid and semi-arid areas and do not account for mesoscale systems responsible for a significant fraction of dust emissions regionally and globally. Other significant uncertainties in dust emissions resulting from such approaches are related to the misrepresentation of high subgrid-scale spatial heterogeneity in soil and vegetation boundary conditions, mainly in semi-arid areas. In order to significantly reduce these uncertainties, the Barcelona Supercomputing Center is currently implementing a mineral dust model coupled on-line with the new global/regional NMMB atmospheric model using the ESMF framework under development in NOAA/NCEP/EMC. The NMMB is an evolution of the operational WRF-NMME extending from meso to global scales, and including non-hydrostatic option and improved tracer advection. This model is planned to become the next-generation NCEP mesoscale model for operational weather forecasting in North America. Current implementation is based on the well established regional dust model and forecast system Eta/DREAM (http://www.bsc.es/projects/earthscience/DREAM/). First successful global simulations show the potentials of such an approach and compare well with DREAM regionally. Ongoing developments include improvements in dust size distribution representation, sedimentation, dry deposition, wet scavenging and dust-radiation feedback, as well as the efficient implementation of the model on High Performance Supercomputers for global simulations and forecasts at high resolution.

Interpreting Sky-Averaged 21-cm Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirocha, Jordan

2015-01-01

Within the first ~billion years after the Big Bang, the intergalactic medium (IGM) underwent a remarkable transformation, from a uniform sea of cold neutral hydrogen gas to a fully ionized, metal-enriched plasma. Three milestones during this epoch of reionization -- the emergence of the first stars, black holes (BHs), and full-fledged galaxies -- are expected to manifest themselves as extrema in sky-averaged ("global") measurements of the redshifted 21-cm background. However, interpreting these measurements will be complicated by the presence of strong foregrounds and non-trivialities in the radiative transfer (RT) modeling required to make robust predictions.I have developed numerical models that efficiently solve the frequency-dependent radiative transfer equation, which has led to two advances in studies of the global 21-cm signal. First, frequency-dependent solutions facilitate studies of how the global 21-cm signal may be used to constrain the detailed spectral properties of the first stars, BHs, and galaxies, rather than just the timing of their formation. And second, the speed of these calculations allows one to search vast expanses of a currently unconstrained parameter space, while simultaneously characterizing the degeneracies between parameters of interest. I find principally that (1) physical properties of the IGM, such as its temperature and ionization state, can be constrained robustly from observations of the global 21-cm signal without invoking models for the astrophysical sources themselves, (2) translating IGM properties to galaxy properties is challenging, in large part due to frequency-dependent effects. For instance, evolution in the characteristic spectrum of accreting BHs can modify the 21-cm absorption signal at levels accessible to first generation instruments, but could easily be confused with evolution in the X-ray luminosity star-formation rate relation. Finally, (3) the independent constraints most likely to aide in the interpretation of global 21-cm signal measurements are detections of Lyman Alpha Emitters at high redshifts and constraints on the midpoint of reionization, both of which are among the primary science objectives of ongoing or near-future experiments.

Evolution of INMARSAT systems and applications: The land mobile experience

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Staffa, Eugene; Subramaniam, Ram

1993-01-01

Inmarsat has provided mobile satellite communication services for land mobile applications for well over a decade. Having started with the Inmarsat-A voice and telex system, Inmarsat is committed to the evolution of services towards a global personal, handheld satellite communicator. Over the years, users have benefitted from the evolution of technologies, increased user friendliness and portability of terminals and ever decreasing cost of operations. This paper describes the various present systems, their characteristics and applications, and outlines their contributions in the evolution towards the personal global communicator.

A generalized theory of preferential linking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Haibo; Guo, Jinli; Liu, Xuan; Wang, Xiaofan

2014-12-01

There are diverse mechanisms driving the evolution of social networks. A key open question dealing with understanding their evolution is: How do various preferential linking mechanisms produce networks with different features? In this paper we first empirically study preferential linking phenomena in an evolving online social network, find and validate the linear preference. We propose an analyzable model which captures the real growth process of the network and reveals the underlying mechanism dominating its evolution. Furthermore based on preferential linking we propose a generalized model reproducing the evolution of online social networks, and present unified analytical results describing network characteristics for 27 preference scenarios. We study the mathematical structure of degree distributions and find that within the framework of preferential linking analytical degree distributions can only be the combinations of finite kinds of functions which are related to rational, logarithmic and inverse tangent functions, and extremely complex network structure will emerge even for very simple sublinear preferential linking. This work not only provides a verifiable origin for the emergence of various network characteristics in social networks, but bridges the micro individuals' behaviors and the global organization of social networks.

A model of early formation of uranium molecular oxides in laser-ablated plasmas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Finko, Mikhail S.; Curreli, Davide; Weisz, David G.

Here, in this work, we present a newly constructed U xO y reaction mechanism that consists of 30 reaction channels (21 of which are reversible channels) for 11 uranium molecular species (including ions). Both the selection of reaction channels and calculation of corresponding rate coefficients is accomplished via a comprehensive literature review and application of basic reaction rate theory. The reaction mechanism is supplemented by a detailed description of oxygen plasma chemistry (19 species and 142 reaction channels) and is used to model an atmospheric laser ablated uranium plume via a 0D (global) model. Finally, the global model is usedmore » to analyze the evolution of key uranium molecular species predicted by the reaction mechanism, and the initial stage of formation of uranium oxide species.« less

A model of early formation of uranium molecular oxides in laser-ablated plasmas

DOE PAGES

Finko, Mikhail S.; Curreli, Davide; Weisz, David G.; ...

2017-10-12

Here, in this work, we present a newly constructed U xO y reaction mechanism that consists of 30 reaction channels (21 of which are reversible channels) for 11 uranium molecular species (including ions). Both the selection of reaction channels and calculation of corresponding rate coefficients is accomplished via a comprehensive literature review and application of basic reaction rate theory. The reaction mechanism is supplemented by a detailed description of oxygen plasma chemistry (19 species and 142 reaction channels) and is used to model an atmospheric laser ablated uranium plume via a 0D (global) model. Finally, the global model is usedmore » to analyze the evolution of key uranium molecular species predicted by the reaction mechanism, and the initial stage of formation of uranium oxide species.« less

Spatial and Temporal Signatures of Flux Transfer Events in Global Simulations of Magnetopause Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Sibeck, David Gary; Hesse, Michael; Berrios, David; Rastaetter, Lutz; Toth, Gabor; Gombosi, Tamas I.

2011-01-01

Flux transfer events (FTEs) were originally identified by transient bipolar variations of the magnetic field component normal to the nominal magnetopause centered on enhancements in the total magnetic field strength. Recent Cluster and THEMIS multi-point measurements provided a wide range of signatures that are interpreted as evidence for FTE passage (e.g., crater FTE's, traveling magnetic erosion regions). We use the global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code BATS-R-US developed at the University of Michigan to model the global three-dimensional structure and temporal evolution of FTEs during multi-spacecraft magnetopause crossing events. Comparison of observed and simulated signatures and sensitivity analysis of the results to the probe location will be presented. We will demonstrate a variety of observable signatures in magnetic field profile that depend on space probe location with respect to the FTE passage. The global structure of FTEs will be illustrated using advanced visualization tools developed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

Regional tectonic analysis of Venus equatorial highlands and comparison with Earth-based Magellan radar images

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, David R.; Wetherill, George

1993-01-01

Research on regional tectonic analysis of Venus equatorial highlands and comparison with earth-based and Magellan radar images is presented. Over the past two years, the tectonic analysis of Venus performed centered on global properties of the planet, in order to understand fundamental aspects of the dynamics of the mantle and lithosphere of Venus. These include studies pertaining to the original constitutive and thermal character of the planet, as well as the evolution of Venus through time, and the present day tectonics. Parameterized convection models of the Earth and Venus were developed. The parameterized convection code was reformulated to model Venus with an initially hydrous mantle to determine how the cold-trap could affect the evolution of the planet.

Star formation in a hierarchical model for Cloud Complexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez, N.; Parravano, A.

The effects of the external and initial conditions on the star formation processes in Molecular Cloud Complexes are examined in the context of a schematic model. The model considers a hierarchical system with five predefined phases: warm gas, neutral gas, low density molecular gas, high density molecular gas and protostars. The model follows the mass evolution of each substructure by computing its mass exchange with their parent and children. The parent-child mass exchange depends on the radiation density at the interphase, which is produced by the radiation coming from the stars that form at the end of the hierarchical structure, and by the external radiation field. The system is chaotic in the sense that its temporal evolution is very sensitive to small changes in the initial or external conditions. However, global features such as the star formation efficience and the Initial Mass Function are less affected by those variations.

Mesoscale analysis of failure in quasi-brittle materials: comparison between lattice model and acoustic emission data.

PubMed

Grégoire, David; Verdon, Laura; Lefort, Vincent; Grassl, Peter; Saliba, Jacqueline; Regoin, Jean-Pierre; Loukili, Ahmed; Pijaudier-Cabot, Gilles

2015-10-25

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the development and the evolution of the fracture process zone during fracture and damage in quasi-brittle materials. A model taking into account the material details at the mesoscale is used to describe the failure process at the scale of the heterogeneities. This model is used to compute histograms of the relative distances between damaged points. These numerical results are compared with experimental data, where the damage evolution is monitored using acoustic emissions. Histograms of the relative distances between damage events in the numerical calculations and acoustic events in the experiments exhibit good agreement. It is shown that the mesoscale model provides relevant information from the point of view of both global responses and the local failure process. © 2015 The Authors. International Journal for Numerical and Analytical Methods in Geomechanics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sensitivity of ocean oxygenation to variations in tropical zonal wind stress magnitude

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridder, Nina N.; England, Matthew H.

2014-09-01

Ocean oxygenation has been observed to have changed over the past few decades and is projected to change further under global climate change due to an interplay of several mechanisms. In this study we isolate the effect of modified tropical surface wind stress conditions on the evolution of ocean oxygenation in a numerical climate model. We find that ocean oxygenation varies inversely with low-latitude surface wind stress. Approximately one third of this response is driven by sea surface temperature anomalies; the remaining two thirds result from changes in ocean circulation and marine biology. Global mean O2 concentration changes reach maximum values of +4 μM and -3.6 μM in the two most extreme perturbation cases of -30% and +30% wind change, respectively. Localized changes lie between +92 μM under 30% reduced winds and -56 μM for 30% increased winds. Overall, we find that the extent of the global low-oxygen volume varies with the same sign as the wind perturbation; namely, weaker winds reduce the low-oxygen volume on the global scale and vice versa for increased trade winds. We identify two regions, one in the Pacific Ocean off Chile and the other in the Indian Ocean off Somalia, that are of particular importance for the evolution of oxygen minimum zones in the global ocean.

Global circulation patterns of seasonal influenza viruses vary with antigenic drift

PubMed Central

Bedford, Trevor; Riley, Steven; Barr, Ian G.; Broor, Shobha; Chadha, Mandeep; Cox, Nancy J.; Daniels, Rodney S.; Gunasekaran, C. Palani; Hurt, Aeron C.; Kelso, Anne; Lewis, Nicola S.; Li, Xiyan; McCauley, John W.; Odagiri, Takato; Potdar, Varsha; Rambaut, Andrew; Shu, Yuelong; Skepner, Eugene; Smith, Derek J.; Suchard, Marc A.; Tashiro, Masato; Wang, Dayan; Xu, Xiyan; Lemey, Philippe; Russell, Colin A.

2015-01-01

Understanding the spatio-temporal patterns of emergence and circulation of new human seasonal influenza virus variants is a key scientific and public health challenge. The global circulation patterns of influenza A/H3N2 viruses are well-characterized1-7 but the patterns of A/H1N1 and B viruses have remained largely unexplored. Here, based on analyses of 9,604 hemagglutinin sequences of human seasonal influenza viruses from 2000–2012, we show that the global circulation patterns of A/H1N1 (up to 2009), B/Victoria, and B/Yamagata viruses differ substantially from those of A/H3N2 viruses. While genetic variants of A/H3N2 viruses did not persist locally between epidemics and were reseeded from East and Southeast (E-SE) Asia, genetic variants of A/H1N1 and B viruses persisted across multiple seasons and exhibited complex global dynamics with E-SE Asia playing a limited role in disseminating new variants. The less frequent global movement of influenza A/H1N1 and B viruses coincided with slower rates of antigenic evolution, lower ages of infection, and smaller less frequent epidemics compared to A/H3N2 viruses. Detailed epidemic models support differences in age of infection, combined with the less frequent travel of children, as likely drivers of the differences in the patterns of global circulation, suggesting a complex interaction between virus evolution, epidemiology and human behavior. PMID:26053121

Global circulation patterns of seasonal influenza viruses vary with antigenic drift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedford, Trevor; Riley, Steven; Barr, Ian G.; Broor, Shobha; Chadha, Mandeep; Cox, Nancy J.; Daniels, Rodney S.; Gunasekaran, C. Palani; Hurt, Aeron C.; Kelso, Anne; Klimov, Alexander; Lewis, Nicola S.; Li, Xiyan; McCauley, John W.; Odagiri, Takato; Potdar, Varsha; Rambaut, Andrew; Shu, Yuelong; Skepner, Eugene; Smith, Derek J.; Suchard, Marc A.; Tashiro, Masato; Wang, Dayan; Xu, Xiyan; Lemey, Philippe; Russell, Colin A.

2015-07-01

Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of emergence and circulation of new human seasonal influenza virus variants is a key scientific and public health challenge. The global circulation patterns of influenza A/H3N2 viruses are well characterized, but the patterns of A/H1N1 and B viruses have remained largely unexplored. Here we show that the global circulation patterns of A/H1N1 (up to 2009), B/Victoria, and B/Yamagata viruses differ substantially from those of A/H3N2 viruses, on the basis of analyses of 9,604 haemagglutinin sequences of human seasonal influenza viruses from 2000 to 2012. Whereas genetic variants of A/H3N2 viruses did not persist locally between epidemics and were reseeded from East and Southeast Asia, genetic variants of A/H1N1 and B viruses persisted across several seasons and exhibited complex global dynamics with East and Southeast Asia playing a limited role in disseminating new variants. The less frequent global movement of influenza A/H1N1 and B viruses coincided with slower rates of antigenic evolution, lower ages of infection, and smaller, less frequent epidemics compared to A/H3N2 viruses. Detailed epidemic models support differences in age of infection, combined with the less frequent travel of children, as probable drivers of the differences in the patterns of global circulation, suggesting a complex interaction between virus evolution, epidemiology, and human behaviour.

Global volcanic emissions: budgets, plume chemistry and impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mather, T. A.

2012-12-01

Over the past few decades our understanding of global volcanic degassing budgets, plume chemistry and the impacts of volcanic emissions on our atmosphere and environment has been revolutionized. Global volcanic emissions budgets are needed if we are to make effective use of regional and global atmospheric models in order to understand the consequences of volcanic degassing on global environmental evolution. Traditionally volcanic SO2 budgets have been the best constrained but recent efforts have seen improvements in the quantification of the budgets of other environmentally important chemical species such as CO2, the halogens (including Br and I) and trace metals (including measurements relevant to trace metal atmospheric lifetimes and bioavailability). Recent measurements of reactive trace gas species in volcanic plumes have offered intriguing hints at the chemistry occurring in the hot environment at volcanic vents and during electrical discharges in ash-rich volcanic plumes. These reactive trace species have important consequences for gas plume chemistry and impacts, for example, in terms of the global fixed nitrogen budget, volcanically induced ozone destruction and particle fluxes to the atmosphere. Volcanically initiated atmospheric chemistry was likely to have been particularly important before biological (and latterly anthropogenic) processes started to dominate many geochemical cycles, with important consequences in terms of the evolution of the nitrogen cycle and the role of particles in modulating the Earth's climate. There are still many challenges and open questions to be addressed in this fascinating area of science.

Mycorrhizal Controls on Nitrogen Uptake Drive Carbon Cycling at the Global Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, M.; Fisher, J. B.; Brzostek, E. R.; Phillips, R.

2015-12-01

Nearly all plants form symbiotic relationships with one of two types of mycorrhizal fungi—arbuscular mycorrhizae (AM) and ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi, which are essential to global biogeochemical cycling of nutrient elements. In soils with higher rates of nitrogen and phosphorus mineralization from organic matter, AM-associated plants can be better adapted than ECM-associated plants. Importantly, the photosynthate costs of nutrient uptake for AM-associated plants are usually lower than that for ECM-associated plants. Thus, the global carbon cycle is closely coupled with mycorrhizal controls on N uptake. To investigate the potential climate dependence of terrestrial environments from AM- and ECM-associated plants, this study uses the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) with a plant productivity-optimized N acquisition model—the Fixation and Uptake of Nitrogen (FUN) model—integrated into its land model—the Community Land Model (CLM). This latest version of CLM coupled with FUN allows for the assessment of mycorrhizal controls on global biogeochemical cycling. Here, we show how the historical evolution of AM- and ECM-associations altered regional and global biogeochemical cycling and climate, and future projections over the next century.

Radio Evolution of Supernova Remnants Including Nonlinear Particle Acceleration: Insights from Hydrodynamic Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavlović, Marko Z.; Urošević, Dejan; Arbutina, Bojan; Orlando, Salvatore; Maxted, Nigel; Filipović, Miroslav D.

2018-01-01

We present a model for the radio evolution of supernova remnants (SNRs) obtained by using three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations coupled with nonlinear kinetic theory of cosmic-ray (CR) acceleration in SNRs. We model the radio evolution of SNRs on a global level by performing simulations for a wide range of the relevant physical parameters, such as the ambient density, supernova (SN) explosion energy, acceleration efficiency, and magnetic field amplification (MFA) efficiency. We attribute the observed spread of radio surface brightnesses for corresponding SNR diameters to the spread of these parameters. In addition to our simulations of Type Ia SNRs, we also considered SNR radio evolution in denser, nonuniform circumstellar environments modified by the progenitor star wind. These simulations start with the mass of the ejecta substantially higher than in the case of a Type Ia SN and presumably lower shock speed. The magnetic field is understandably seen as very important for the radio evolution of SNRs. In terms of MFA, we include both resonant and nonresonant modes in our large-scale simulations by implementing models obtained from first-principles, particle-in-cell simulations and nonlinear magnetohydrodynamical simulations. We test the quality and reliability of our models on a sample consisting of Galactic and extragalactic SNRs. Our simulations give Σ ‑ D slopes between ‑4 and ‑6 for the full Sedov regime. Recent empirical slopes obtained for the Galactic samples are around ‑5, while those for the extragalactic samples are around ‑4.

An Exospheric Temperature Model Based On CHAMP Observations and TIEGCM Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruan, Haibing; Lei, Jiuhou; Dou, Xiankang; Liu, Siqing; Aa, Ercha

2018-02-01

In this work, thermospheric densities from the accelerometer measurement on board the CHAMP satellite during 2002-2009 and the simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (NCAR-TIEGCM) are employed to develop an empirical exospheric temperature model (ETM). The two-dimensional basis functions of the ETM are first provided from the principal component analysis of the TIEGCM simulations. Based on the exospheric temperatures derived from CHAMP thermospheric densities, a global distribution of the exospheric temperatures is reconstructed. A parameterization is conducted for each basis function amplitude as a function of solar-geophysical and seasonal conditions. Thus, the ETM can be utilized to model the thermospheric temperature and mass density under a specified condition. Our results showed that the averaged standard deviation of the ETM is generally less than 10% than approximately 30% in the MSIS model. Besides, the ETM reproduces the global thermospheric evolutions including the equatorial thermosphere anomaly.

The Global Observing System in the Assimilation Context

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reinecker, Michele M.; Gelaro, R.; Pawson, S.; Reichle, R.; McCarty, W.

2011-01-01

Weather and climate analyses and predictions all rely on the global observing system. However, the observing system, whether atmosphere, ocean, or land surface, yields a diverse set of incomplete observations of the different components of Earth s environment. Data assimilation systems are essential to synthesize the wide diversity of in situ and remotely sensed observations into four-dimensional state estimates by combining the various observations with model-based estimates. Assimilation, or associated tools and products, are also useful in providing guidance for the evolution of the observing system of the future. This paper provides a brief overview of the global observing system and information gleaned through assimilation tools, and presents some evaluations of observing system gaps and issues.

Steady-state global optimization of metabolic non-linear dynamic models through recasting into power-law canonical models

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Design of newly engineered microbial strains for biotechnological purposes would greatly benefit from the development of realistic mathematical models for the processes to be optimized. Such models can then be analyzed and, with the development and application of appropriate optimization techniques, one could identify the modifications that need to be made to the organism in order to achieve the desired biotechnological goal. As appropriate models to perform such an analysis are necessarily non-linear and typically non-convex, finding their global optimum is a challenging task. Canonical modeling techniques, such as Generalized Mass Action (GMA) models based on the power-law formalism, offer a possible solution to this problem because they have a mathematical structure that enables the development of specific algorithms for global optimization. Results Based on the GMA canonical representation, we have developed in previous works a highly efficient optimization algorithm and a set of related strategies for understanding the evolution of adaptive responses in cellular metabolism. Here, we explore the possibility of recasting kinetic non-linear models into an equivalent GMA model, so that global optimization on the recast GMA model can be performed. With this technique, optimization is greatly facilitated and the results are transposable to the original non-linear problem. This procedure is straightforward for a particular class of non-linear models known as Saturable and Cooperative (SC) models that extend the power-law formalism to deal with saturation and cooperativity. Conclusions Our results show that recasting non-linear kinetic models into GMA models is indeed an appropriate strategy that helps overcoming some of the numerical difficulties that arise during the global optimization task. PMID:21867520

Environmental Stochasticity and the Speed of Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danino, Matan; Kessler, David A.; Shnerb, Nadav M.

2018-03-01

Biological populations are subject to two types of noise: demographic stochasticity due to fluctuations in the reproductive success of individuals, and environmental variations that affect coherently the relative fitness of entire populations. The rate in which the average fitness of a community increases has been considered so far using models with pure demographic stochasticity; here we present some theoretical considerations and numerical results for the general case where environmental variations are taken into account. When the competition is pairwise, fitness fluctuations are shown to reduce the speed of evolution, while under global competition the speed increases due to environmental stochasticity.

Environmental Stochasticity and the Speed of Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danino, Matan; Kessler, David A.; Shnerb, Nadav M.

2018-07-01

Biological populations are subject to two types of noise: demographic stochasticity due to fluctuations in the reproductive success of individuals, and environmental variations that affect coherently the relative fitness of entire populations. The rate in which the average fitness of a community increases has been considered so far using models with pure demographic stochasticity; here we present some theoretical considerations and numerical results for the general case where environmental variations are taken into account. When the competition is pairwise, fitness fluctuations are shown to reduce the speed of evolution, while under global competition the speed increases due to environmental stochasticity.

Convergent Evolution towards High Net Carbon Gain Efficiency Contributes to the Shade Tolerance of Palms (Arecaceae).

PubMed

Ma, Ren-Yi; Zhang, Jiao-Lin; Cavaleri, Molly A; Sterck, Frank; Strijk, Joeri S; Cao, Kun-Fang

2015-01-01

Most palm species occur in the shaded lower strata of tropical rain forests, but how their traits relate to shade adaptation is poorly understood. We hypothesized that palms are adapted to the shade of their native habitats by convergent evolution towards high net carbon gain efficiency (CGEn), which is given by the maximum photosynthetic rate to dark respiration rate ratio. Leaf mass per area, maximum photosynthetic rate, dark respiration and N and P concentrations were measured in 80 palm species grown in a common garden, and combined with data of 30 palm species growing in their native habitats. Compared to other species from the global leaf economics data, dicotyledonous broad-leaved trees in tropical rainforest or other monocots in the global leaf economics data, palms possessed consistently higher CGEn, achieved by lowered dark respiration and fairly high foliar P concentration. Combined phylogenetic analyses of evolutionary signal and trait evolution revealed convergent evolution towards high CGEn in palms. We conclude that high CGEn is an evolutionary strategy that enables palms to better adapt to shady environments than coexisting dicot tree species, and may convey advantages in competing with them in the tropical forest understory. These findings provide important insights for understanding the evolution and ecology of palms, and for understanding plant shade adaptations of lower rainforest strata. Moreover, given the dominant role of palms in tropical forests, these findings are important for modelling carbon and nutrient cycling in tropical forest ecosystems.

Emerging Models of Teacher Training: The Case of Portugal

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alexandre, Fernando; Ferreira, Manuela; Miranda, Branca

2004-01-01

The structural reforms of geography teacher training in Portugal have been justified by the global evolution of the educational system and took into account: (1) the political will to extend the period of compulsory schooling, which now covers the whole of lower secondary education, but will soon cover upper secondary education as well; (2) the…

The Perceptions of U.S.-Based IT Security Professionals about the Effectiveness of IT Security Frameworks: A Quantitative Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Warfield, Douglas L.

2011-01-01

The evolution of information technology has included new methodologies that use information technology to control and manage various industries and government activities. Information Technology has also evolved as its own industry with global networks of interconnectivity, such as the Internet, and frameworks, models, and methodologies to control…

Are species' responses to global change predicted by past niche evolution?

PubMed Central

Lavergne, Sébastien; Evans, Margaret E. K.; Burfield, Ian J.; Jiguet, Frederic; Thuiller, Wilfried

2013-01-01

Predicting how and when adaptive evolution might rescue species from global change, and integrating this process into tools of biodiversity forecasting, has now become an urgent task. Here, we explored whether recent population trends of species can be explained by their past rate of niche evolution, which can be inferred from increasingly available phylogenetic and niche data. We examined the assemblage of 409 European bird species for which estimates of demographic trends between 1970 and 2000 are available, along with a species-level phylogeny and data on climatic, habitat and trophic niches. We found that species' proneness to demographic decline is associated with slow evolution of the habitat niche in the past, in addition to certain current-day life-history and ecological traits. A similar result was found at a higher taxonomic level, where families prone to decline have had a history of slower evolution of climatic and habitat niches. Our results support the view that niche conservatism can prevent some species from coping with environmental change. Thus, linking patterns of past niche evolution and contemporary species dynamics for large species samples may provide insights into how niche evolution may rescue certain lineages in the face of global change. PMID:23209172

Reconnection in the Martian Magnetotail: Hall-MHD With Embedded Particle-in-Cell Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Yingjuan; Russell, Christopher T.; Toth, Gabor; Chen, Yuxi; Nagy, Andrew F.; Harada, Yuki; McFadden, James; Halekas, Jasper S.; Lillis, Rob; Connerney, John E. P.; Espley, Jared; DiBraccio, Gina A.; Markidis, Stefano; Peng, Ivy Bo; Fang, Xiaohua; Jakosky, Bruce M.

2018-05-01

Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) mission observations show clear evidence of the occurrence of the magnetic reconnection process in the Martian plasma tail. In this study, we use sophisticated numerical models to help us understand the effects of magnetic reconnection in the plasma tail. The numerical models used in this study are (a) a multispecies global Hall-magnetohydrodynamic (HMHD) model and (b) a global HMHD model two-way coupled to an embedded fully kinetic particle-in-cell code. Comparison with MAVEN observations clearly shows that the general interaction pattern is well reproduced by the global HMHD model. The coupled model takes advantage of both the efficiency of the MHD model and the ability to incorporate kinetic processes of the particle-in-cell model, making it feasible to conduct kinetic simulations for Mars under realistic solar wind conditions for the first time. Results from the coupled model show that the Martian magnetotail is highly dynamic due to magnetic reconnection, and the resulting Mars-ward plasma flow velocities are significantly higher for the lighter ion fluid, which are quantitatively consistent with MAVEN observations. The HMHD with Embedded Particle-in-Cell model predicts that the ion loss rates are more variable but with similar mean values as compared with HMHD model results.

Dynamically correlated mutations drive human Influenza A evolution.

PubMed

Tria, F; Pompei, S; Loreto, V

2013-01-01

Human Influenza A virus undergoes recurrent changes in the hemagglutinin (HA) surface protein, primarily involved in the human antibody recognition. Relevant antigenic changes, enabling the virus to evade host immune response, have been recognized to occur in parallel to multiple mutations at antigenic sites in HA. Yet, the role of correlated mutations (epistasis) in driving the molecular evolution of the virus still represents a challenging puzzle. Further, though circulation at a global geographic level is key for the survival of Influenza A, its role in shaping the viral phylodynamics remains largely unexplored. Here we show, through a sequence based epidemiological model, that epistatic effects between amino acids substitutions, coupled with a reservoir that mimics worldwide circulating viruses, are key determinants that drive human Influenza A evolution. Our approach explains all the up-to-date observations characterizing the evolution of H3N2 subtype, including phylogenetic properties, nucleotide fixation patterns, and composition of antigenic clusters.

Evolutionary Models of Cold, Magnetized, Interstellar Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gammie, Charles F.; Ostriker, Eve; Stone, James M.

2004-01-01

We modeled the long-term and small-scale evolution of molecular clouds using direct 2D and 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations. This work followed up on previous research by our group under auspices of the ATP in which we studied the energetics of turbulent, magnetized clouds and their internal structure on intermediate scales. Our new work focused on both global and smallscale aspects of the evolution of turbulent, magnetized clouds, and in particular studied the response of turbulent proto-cloud material to passage through the Galactic spiral potential, and the dynamical collapse of turbulent, magnetized (supercritical) clouds into fragments to initiate the formation of a stellar cluster. Technical advances under this program include developing an adaptive-mesh MHD code as a successor to ZEUS (ATHENA) in order to follow cloud fragmentation, developing a shearing-sheet MHD code which includes self-gravity and externally-imposed gravity to follow the evolution of clouds in the Galactic potential, and developing radiative transfer models to evaluate the internal ionization of clumpy clouds exposed to external photoionizing UV and CR radiation. Gammie's work at UIUC focused on the radiative transfer aspects of this program.

Reference results for time-like evolution up to

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertone, Valerio; Carrazza, Stefano; Nocera, Emanuele R.

2015-03-01

We present high-precision numerical results for time-like Dokshitzer-Gribov-Lipatov-Altarelli-Parisi evolution in the factorisation scheme, for the first time up to next-to-next-to-leading order accuracy in quantum chromodynamics. First, we scrutinise the analytical expressions of the splitting functions available in the literature, in both x and N space, and check their mutual consistency. Second, we implement time-like evolution in two publicly available, entirely independent and conceptually different numerical codes, in x and N space respectively: the already existing APFEL code, which has been updated with time-like evolution, and the new MELA code, which has been specifically developed to perform the study in this work. Third, by means of a model for fragmentation functions, we provide results for the evolution in different factorisation schemes, for different ratios between renormalisation and factorisation scales and at different final scales. Our results are collected in the format of benchmark tables, which could be used as a reference for global determinations of fragmentation functions in the future.

A single evolutionary innovation drives the deep evolution of symbiotic N2-fixation in angiosperms

PubMed Central

Werner, Gijsbert D. A.; Cornwell, William K.; Sprent, Janet I.; Kattge, Jens; Kiers, E. Toby

2014-01-01

Symbiotic associations occur in every habitat on earth, but we know very little about their evolutionary histories. Current models of trait evolution cannot adequately reconstruct the deep history of symbiotic innovation, because they assume homogenous evolutionary processes across millions of years. Here we use a recently developed, heterogeneous and quantitative phylogenetic framework to study the origin of the symbiosis between angiosperms and nitrogen-fixing (N2) bacterial symbionts housed in nodules. We compile the largest database of global nodulating plant species and reconstruct the symbiosis’ evolution. We identify a single, cryptic evolutionary innovation driving symbiotic N2-fixation evolution, followed by multiple gains and losses of the symbiosis, and the subsequent emergence of ‘stable fixers’ (clades extremely unlikely to lose the symbiosis). Originating over 100 MYA, this innovation suggests deep homology in symbiotic N2-fixation. Identifying cryptic innovations on the tree of life is key to understanding the evolution of complex traits, including symbiotic partnerships. PMID:24912610

Modeling X-Ray Binary Evolution in Normal Galaxies: Insights from SINGS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tzanavaris, P.; Fragos, T.; Tremmel, M.; Jenkins, L.; Zezas, A.; Lehmer, B. D.; Hornschemeier, A.; Kalogera, V.; Ptak, A.; Basu-Zych, A. R.

2013-09-01

We present the largest-scale comparison to date between observed extragalactic X-ray binary (XRB) populations and theoretical models of their production. We construct observational X-ray luminosity functions (oXLFs) using Chandra observations of 12 late-type galaxies from the Spitzer Infrared Nearby Galaxy Survey. For each galaxy, we obtain theoretical XLFs (tXLFs) by combining XRB synthetic models, constructed with the population synthesis code StarTrack, with observational star formation histories (SFHs). We identify highest-likelihood models both for individual galaxies and globally, averaged over the full galaxy sample. Individual tXLFs successfully reproduce about half of the oXLFs, but for some galaxies we are unable to find underlying source populations, indicating that galaxy SFHs and metallicities are not well matched and/or that XRB modeling requires calibration on larger observational samples. Given these limitations, we find that the best models are consistent with a product of common envelope ejection efficiency and central donor concentration ~= 0.1, and a 50% uniform-50% "twins" initial mass-ratio distribution. We present and discuss constituent subpopulations of tXLFs according to donor, accretor, and stellar population characteristics. The galaxy-wide X-ray luminosity due to low-mass and high-mass XRBs, estimated via our best global model tXLF, follows the general trend expected from the LX -star formation rate and LX -stellar mass relations of Lehmer et al. Our best models are also in agreement with modeling of the evolution of both XRBs over cosmic time and of the galaxy X-ray luminosity with redshift.

Modeling X-Ray Binary Evolution in Normal Galaxies: Insights from SINGS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tzanavaris, P.; Fragos, T.; Tremmel, M.; Jenkins, L.; Zezas, A.; Lehmer, B. D.; Hornschemeier, A.; Kalogera, V.; Ptak, A; Basu-Zych, A.

2013-01-01

We present the largest-scale comparison to date between observed extragalactic X-ray binary (XRB) populations and theoretical models of their production. We construct observational X-ray luminosity functions (oXLFs) using Chandra observations of 12 late-type galaxies from the Spitzer Infrared Nearby Galaxy Survey (SINGS). For each galaxy, we obtain theoretical XLFs (tXLFs) by combining XRB synthetic models, constructed with the population synthesis code StarTrack, with observational star formation histories (SFHs). We identify highest-likelihood models both for individual galaxies and globally, averaged over the full galaxy sample. Individual tXLFs successfully reproduce about half of oXLFs, but for some galaxies we are unable to find underlying source populations, indicating that galaxy SFHs and metallicities are not well matched and/or XRB modeling requires calibration on larger observational samples. Given these limitations, we find that best models are consistent with a product of common envelope ejection efficiency and central donor concentration approx.. = 0.1, and a 50% uniform - 50% "twins" initial mass-ratio distribution. We present and discuss constituent subpopulations of tXLFs according to donor, accretor and stellar population characteristics. The galaxy-wide X-ray luminosity due to low-mass and high-mass XRBs, estimated via our best global model tXLF, follows the general trend expected from the L(sub X) - star formation rate and L(sub X) - stellar mass relations of Lehmer et al. Our best models are also in agreement with modeling of the evolution both of XRBs over cosmic time and of the galaxy X-ray luminosity with redshift.

Tectonic Evolution of Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phillips, Roger J.

1992-01-01

The Final Technical Report on tectonic evolution of Mars is presented. Two papers and an abstract are included. Topics addressed include: scientific rationale and requirements for a global seismic network on Mars, permanent uplift in magmatic systems with application to the Tharsis Region of Mars, and the geophysical signal of the Martian global dichotomy.

Estimating global cropland production from 1961 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Pengfei; Zeng, Ning; Zhao, Fang; Lin, Xiaohui

2017-09-01

Global cropland net primary production (NPP) has tripled over the last 50 years, contributing 17-45 % to the increase in global atmospheric CO2 seasonal amplitude. Although many regional-scale comparisons have been made between statistical data and modeling results, long-term national comparisons across global croplands are scarce due to the lack of detailed spatiotemporal management data. Here, we conducted a simulation study of global cropland NPP from 1961 to 2010 using a process-based model called Vegetation-Global Atmosphere-Soil (VEGAS) and compared the results with Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) statistical data on both continental and country scales. According to the FAO data, the global cropland NPP was 1.3, 1.8, 2.2, 2.6, 3.0, and 3.6 PgC yr-1 in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s, respectively. The VEGAS model captured these major trends on global and continental scales. The NPP increased most notably in the US Midwest, western Europe, and the North China Plain and increased modestly in Africa and Oceania. However, significant biases remained in some regions such as Africa and Oceania, especially in temporal evolution. This finding is not surprising as VEGAS is the first global carbon cycle model with full parameterization representing the Green Revolution. To improve model performance for different major regions, we modified the default values of management intensity associated with the agricultural Green Revolution differences across various regions to better match the FAO statistical data at the continental level and for selected countries. Across all the selected countries, the updated results reduced the RMSE from 19.0 to 10.5 TgC yr-1 (˜ 45 % decrease). The results suggest that these regional differences in model parameterization are due to differences in socioeconomic development. To better explain the past changes and predict the future trends, it is important to calibrate key parameters on regional scales and develop data sets for land management history.

Within-Host Evolution of Human Influenza Virus.

PubMed

Xue, Katherine S; Moncla, Louise H; Bedford, Trevor; Bloom, Jesse D

2018-03-10

The rapid global evolution of influenza virus begins with mutations that arise de novo in individual infections, but little is known about how evolution occurs within hosts. We review recent progress in understanding how and why influenza viruses evolve within human hosts. Advances in deep sequencing make it possible to measure within-host genetic diversity in both acute and chronic influenza infections. Factors like antigenic selection, antiviral treatment, tissue specificity, spatial structure, and multiplicity of infection may affect how influenza viruses evolve within human hosts. Studies of within-host evolution can contribute to our understanding of the evolutionary and epidemiological factors that shape influenza virus's global evolution. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Satellite Observations of the Effect of Natural and Anthropogenic Aerosols on Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufman, Yoram J.

2006-01-01

Our knowledge of atmospheric aerosols (smoke, pollution, dust or sea salt particles, small enough to be suspended in the air), their evolution, composition, variability in space and time and interaction with clouds and precipitation is still lacking despite decades of research. Understanding the global aerosol system is critical to quantifying anthropogenic climate change, to determine climate sensitivity from observations and to understand the hydrological cycle. While a single instrument was used to demonstrate 50 years ago that the global CO2 levels are rising, posing threat of global warming, we need an array of satellites and field measurements coupled with chemical transport models to understand the global aerosol system. This complexity of the aerosol problem results from their short lifetime (1 week) and variable chemical composition. A new generation of satellites provides exciting opportunities to measure the global distribution of aerosols, distinguishing natural from anthropogenic aerosol and measuring their interaction with clouds and climate.

Overview of Aerosol Distribution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufman, Yoram

2005-01-01

Our knowledge of atmospheric aerosols (smoke, pollution, dust or sea salt particles, small enough to be suspended in the air), their evolution, composition, variability in space and time and interaction with clouds and precipitation is still lacking despite decades of research. Understanding the global aerosol system is fundamental for progress in climate change and hydrological cycle research. While a single instrument was used to demonstrate 50 years ago that the global CO2 levels are rising, posing threat of global warming, we need an array of satellites and field measurements coupled with chemical transport models to understand the global aerosol system. This complexity of the aerosol problem results from their short lifetime (1 week) and variable chemical composition. A new generation of satellites provides exciting opportunities to measure the global distribution of aerosols, distinguishing natural from anthropogenic aerosol and measuring their interaction with clouds and climate. I shall discuss these topics and application of the data to air quality monitoring.

Microscale Effects from Global Hot Plasma Imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, T. E.; Fok, M.-C.; Perez, J. D.; Keady, J. P.

1995-01-01

We have used a three-dimensional model of recovery phase storm hot plasmas to explore the signatures of pitch angle distributions (PADS) in global fast atom imagery of the magnetosphere. The model computes mass, energy, and position-dependent PADs based on drift effects, charge exchange losses, and Coulomb drag. The hot plasma PAD strongly influences both the storm current system carried by the hot plasma and its time evolution. In turn, the PAD is strongly influenced by plasma waves through pitch angle diffusion, a microscale effect. We report the first simulated neutral atom images that account for anisotropic PADs within the hot plasma. They exhibit spatial distribution features that correspond directly to the PADs along the lines of sight. We investigate the use of image brightness distributions along tangent-shell field lines to infer equatorial PADS. In tangent-shell regions with minimal spatial gradients, reasonably accurate PADs are inferred from simulated images. They demonstrate the importance of modeling PADs for image inversion and show that comparisons of models with real storm plasma images will reveal the global effects of these microscale processes.

Comparison of Global Martian Plasma Models in the Context of MAVEN Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Egan, Hilary; Ma, Yingjuan; Dong, Chuanfei; Modolo, Ronan; Jarvinen, Riku; Bougher, Stephen; Halekas, Jasper; Brain, David; Mcfadden, James; Connerney, John; Mitchell, David; Jakosky, Bruce

2018-05-01

Global models of the interaction of the solar wind with the Martian upper atmosphere have proved to be valuable tools for investigating both the escape to space of the Martian atmosphere and the physical processes controlling this complex interaction. The many models currently in use employ different physical assumptions, but it can be difficult to directly compare the effectiveness of the models since they are rarely run for the same input conditions. Here we present the results of a model comparison activity, where five global models (single-fluid MHD, multifluid MHD, multifluid electron pressure MHD, and two hybrid models) were run for identical conditions corresponding to a single orbit of observations from the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) spacecraft. We find that low-altitude ion densities are very similar across all models and are comparable to MAVEN ion density measurements from periapsis. Plasma boundaries appear generally symmetric in all models and vary only slightly in extent. Despite these similarities there are clear morphological differences in ion behavior in other regions such as the tail and southern hemisphere. These differences are observable in ion escape loss maps and are necessary to understand in order to accurately use models in aiding our understanding of the Martian plasma environment.

Evolution of Tides and Tidal Dissipation Over the Past 26,000 Years Using a Multi-Scale Model of Global Barotropic Tides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salehipour, H.; Peltier, W. R.

2014-12-01

In this paper we will describe the results obtained through integration of a further refined version of the truly global barotropic tidal model of Salehipour et al. (Ocean Modell., 69, 2013) using the most recent reconstruction of ice-age bathymetric conditions as embodied in the recently constructed ICE-6G_C (VM5a) model of Peltier et al. (JGR-Solid Earth, in press, 2014). Our interest is in the spatial and temporal evolution of tidal amplitude, phase and dissipation from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) 26,000 years ago until the present. The state-of-the-art higher order nonlinear tidal model of Salehipour et al. (2013) includes a highly parallelized multi-scale framework in which an unstructured tessellation of the global ocean enables extensive local refinement around regions of interest such as the Hawaiian Ridge, the Brazil Basin and the Southern Ocean. At LGM, features such as the Patagonian Shelf were fully exposed land which during the deglaciation process would have been flooded leading to significant changes of tidal range along the evolving coastline. In the further development of this model we have included the fully iterated treatment of the influence of gravitational self-attraction and loading as in, e.g. Egbert et al. (JGR-Oceans, 109, 2004). The treatment of the dissipation of the barotropic tide through dissipation of the internal tide has also been significantly improved. Our paleobathymetry and coastline data sets extend from LGM to present at 500 year intervals and constitute a significant refinement of the widely employed ICE-5G (VM2) model of Peltier (Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 32, 2004). Our results will be compared with those recently published by Green & Nycander (JPO, 43, 2013) and Wilmes & Green (JGR-Oceans, 119, 2014) as well as with the earlier results of Griffiths & Peltier (GRL, 35, 2008; J. Clim., 22, 2009).

Bianchi type-I magnetized cosmological models for the Einstein-Boltzmann equation with the cosmological constant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ayissi, Raoul Domingo, E-mail: raoulayissi@yahoo.fr; Noutchegueme, Norbert, E-mail: nnoutch@yahoo.fr

Global solutions regular for the Einstein-Boltzmann equation on a magnetized Bianchi type-I cosmological model with the cosmological constant are investigated. We suppose that the metric is locally rotationally symmetric. The Einstein-Boltzmann equation has been already considered by some authors. But, in general Bancel and Choquet-Bruhat [Ann. Henri Poincaré XVIII(3), 263 (1973); Commun. Math. Phys. 33, 83 (1973)], they proved only the local existence, and in the case of the nonrelativistic Boltzmann equation. Mucha [Global existence of solutions of the Einstein-Boltzmann equation in the spatially homogeneous case. Evolution equation, existence, regularity and singularities (Banach Center Publications, Institute of Mathematics, Polish Academymore » of Science, 2000), Vol. 52] obtained a global existence result, for the relativistic Boltzmann equation coupled with the Einstein equations and using the Yosida operator, but confusing unfortunately with the nonrelativistic case. Noutchegueme and Dongho [Classical Quantum Gravity 23, 2979 (2006)] and Noutchegueme, Dongho, and Takou [Gen. Relativ. Gravitation 37, 2047 (2005)], have obtained a global solution in time, but still using the Yosida operator and considering only the uncharged case. Noutchegueme and Ayissi [Adv. Stud. Theor. Phys. 4, 855 (2010)] also proved a global existence of solutions to the Maxwell-Boltzmann system using the characteristic method. In this paper, we obtain using a method totally different from those used in the works of Noutchegueme and Dongho [Classical Quantum Gravity 23, 2979 (2006)], Noutchegueme, Dongho, and Takou [Gen. Relativ. Gravitation 37, 2047 (2005)], Noutchegueme and Ayissi [Adv. Stud. Theor. Phys. 4, 855 (2010)], and Mucha [Global existence of solutions of the Einstein-Boltzmann equation in the spatially homogeneous case. Evolution equation, existence, regularity and singularities (Banach Center Publications, Institute of Mathematics, Polish Academy of Science, 2000), Vol. 52] the global in time existence and uniqueness of a regular solution to the Einstein-Maxwell-Boltzmann system with the cosmological constant. We define and we use the weighted Sobolev separable spaces for the Boltzmann equation; some special spaces for the Einstein equations, then we clearly display all the proofs leading to the global existence theorems.« less

Bianchi type-I magnetized cosmological models for the Einstein-Boltzmann equation with the cosmological constant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayissi, Raoul Domingo; Noutchegueme, Norbert

2015-01-01

Global solutions regular for the Einstein-Boltzmann equation on a magnetized Bianchi type-I cosmological model with the cosmological constant are investigated. We suppose that the metric is locally rotationally symmetric. The Einstein-Boltzmann equation has been already considered by some authors. But, in general Bancel and Choquet-Bruhat [Ann. Henri Poincaré XVIII(3), 263 (1973); Commun. Math. Phys. 33, 83 (1973)], they proved only the local existence, and in the case of the nonrelativistic Boltzmann equation. Mucha [Global existence of solutions of the Einstein-Boltzmann equation in the spatially homogeneous case. Evolution equation, existence, regularity and singularities (Banach Center Publications, Institute of Mathematics, Polish Academy of Science, 2000), Vol. 52] obtained a global existence result, for the relativistic Boltzmann equation coupled with the Einstein equations and using the Yosida operator, but confusing unfortunately with the nonrelativistic case. Noutchegueme and Dongho [Classical Quantum Gravity 23, 2979 (2006)] and Noutchegueme, Dongho, and Takou [Gen. Relativ. Gravitation 37, 2047 (2005)], have obtained a global solution in time, but still using the Yosida operator and considering only the uncharged case. Noutchegueme and Ayissi [Adv. Stud. Theor. Phys. 4, 855 (2010)] also proved a global existence of solutions to the Maxwell-Boltzmann system using the characteristic method. In this paper, we obtain using a method totally different from those used in the works of Noutchegueme and Dongho [Classical Quantum Gravity 23, 2979 (2006)], Noutchegueme, Dongho, and Takou [Gen. Relativ. Gravitation 37, 2047 (2005)], Noutchegueme and Ayissi [Adv. Stud. Theor. Phys. 4, 855 (2010)], and Mucha [Global existence of solutions of the Einstein-Boltzmann equation in the spatially homogeneous case. Evolution equation, existence, regularity and singularities (Banach Center Publications, Institute of Mathematics, Polish Academy of Science, 2000), Vol. 52] the global in time existence and uniqueness of a regular solution to the Einstein-Maxwell-Boltzmann system with the cosmological constant. We define and we use the weighted Sobolev separable spaces for the Boltzmann equation; some special spaces for the Einstein equations, then we clearly display all the proofs leading to the global existence theorems.

Modeling the Pre-Industrial Roots of Modern Super-Exponential Population Growth

PubMed Central

Stutz, Aaron Jonas

2014-01-01

To Malthus, rapid human population growth—so evident in 18th Century Europe—was obviously unsustainable. In his Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus cogently argued that environmental and socioeconomic constraints on population rise were inevitable. Yet, he penned his essay on the eve of the global census size reaching one billion, as nearly two centuries of super-exponential increase were taking off. Introducing a novel extension of J. E. Cohen's hallmark coupled difference equation model of human population dynamics and carrying capacity, this article examines just how elastic population growth limits may be in response to demographic change. The revised model involves a simple formalization of how consumption costs influence carrying capacity elasticity over time. Recognizing that complex social resource-extraction networks support ongoing consumption-based investment in family formation and intergenerational resource transfers, it is important to consider how consumption has impacted the human environment and demography—especially as global population has become very large. Sensitivity analysis of the consumption-cost model's fit to historical population estimates, modern census data, and 21st Century demographic projections supports a critical conclusion. The recent population explosion was systemically determined by long-term, distinctly pre-industrial cultural evolution. It is suggested that modern globalizing transitions in technology, susceptibility to infectious disease, information flows and accumulation, and economic complexity were endogenous products of much earlier biocultural evolution of family formation's embeddedness in larger, hierarchically self-organizing cultural systems, which could potentially support high population elasticity of carrying capacity. Modern super-exponential population growth cannot be considered separately from long-term change in the multi-scalar political economy that connects family formation and intergenerational resource transfers to wider institutions and social networks. PMID:25141019

The Cycles of Snow Cover in Pyrenees Mountain and Mont Lebanon Analyzed Using the Global Modeling Technique.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drapeau, L.; Mangiarotti, S.; Le Jean, F.; Gascoin, S.; Jarlan, L.

2014-12-01

The global modeling technique provides a way to obtain ordinary differential equations from single time series1. This technique, initiated in the 1990s, could be applied successfully to numerous theoretic and experimental systems. More recently it could be applied to environmental systems2,3. Here this technique is applied to seasonal snow cover area in the Pyrenees mountain (Europe) and Mont Lebanon (Mediterranean region). The snowpack evolution is complex because it results from combination of processes driven by physiography (elevation, slope, land cover...) and meteorological variables (precipitation, temperature, wind speed...), which are highly heterogeneous in such regions. Satellite observations in visible bands offer a powerful tool to monitor snow cover areas at global scale, with large resolutions range. Although this observable does not directly inform about snow water equivalent, its dynamical behavior strongly relies on it. Therefore, snow cover area is likely to be a good proxy of the global dynamics and global modeling technique a well adapted approach. The MOD10A2 product (500m) generated from MODIS by the NASA is used after a pretreatment is applied to minimize clouds effect. The global modeling technique is then applied using two packages4,5. The analysis is performed with two time series for the whole period (2000-2012) and year by year. Low-dimensional chaotic models are obtained in many cases. Such models provide a strong argument for chaos since involving the two necessary conditions in a synthetic way: determinism and strong sensitivity to initial conditions. The models comparison suggests important non-stationnarities at interannual scale which prevent from detecting long term changes. 1: Letellier et al 2009. Frequently asked questions about global modeling, Chaos, 19, 023103. 2: Maquet et al 2007. Global models from the Canadian lynx cycles as a direct evidence for chaos in real ecosystems. J. of Mathematical Biology, 55 (1), 21-39 3: Mangiarotti et al 2014. Two chaotic global models for cereal crops cycles observed from satellite in Northern Morocco. Chaos, 24, 023130. 4 : Mangiarotti et al 2012. Polynomial search and Global modelling: two algorithms for modeling chaos. Physical Review E, 86(4), 046205. 5: http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/PoMoS/index.html.

Analysis of high-order SNP barcodes in mitochondrial D-loop for chronic dialysis susceptibility.

PubMed

Yang, Cheng-Hong; Lin, Yu-Da; Chuang, Li-Yeh; Chang, Hsueh-Wei

2016-10-01

Positively identifying disease-associated single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers in genome-wide studies entails the complex association analysis of a huge number of SNPs. Such large numbers of SNP barcode (SNP/genotype combinations) continue to pose serious computational challenges, especially for high-dimensional data. We propose a novel exploiting SNP barcode method based on differential evolution, termed IDE (improved differential evolution). IDE uses a "top combination strategy" to improve the ability of differential evolution to explore high-order SNP barcodes in high-dimensional data. We simulate disease data and use real chronic dialysis data to test four global optimization algorithms. In 48 simulated disease models, we show that IDE outperforms existing global optimization algorithms in terms of exploring ability and power to detect the specific SNP/genotype combinations with a maximum difference between cases and controls. In real data, we show that IDE can be used to evaluate the relative effects of each individual SNP on disease susceptibility. IDE generated significant SNP barcode with less computational complexity than the other algorithms, making IDE ideally suited for analysis of high-order SNP barcodes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

InSAR constraints on soil moisture evolution after the March 2015 extreme precipitation event in Chile.

PubMed

Scott, C P; Lohman, R B; Jordan, T E

2017-07-07

Constraints on soil moisture can guide agricultural practices, act as input into weather, flooding and climate models and inform water resource policies. Space-based interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) observations provide near-global coverage, even in the presence of clouds, of proxies for soil moisture derived from the amplitude and phase content of radar imagery. We describe results from a 1.5 year-long InSAR time series spanning the March, 2015 extreme precipitation event in the hyperarid Atacama desert of Chile, constraining the immediate increase in soil moisture and drying out over the following months, as well as the response to a later, smaller precipitation event. The inferred temporal evolution of soil moisture is remarkably consistent between independent, overlapping SAR tracks covering a region ~100 km in extent. The unusually large rain event, combined with the extensive spatial and temporal coverage of the SAR dataset, present an unprecedented opportunity to image the time-evolution of soil characteristics over different surface types. Constraints on the timescale of shallow water storage after precipitation events are increasingly valuable as global water resources continue to be stretched to their limits and communities continue to develop in flood-prone areas.

Untangling Consequential Futures: Discovering Self-Consistent Regional and Global Multi-Sector Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamontagne, J. R.; Reed, P. M.

2017-12-01

Impacts and adaptations to global change largely occur at regional scales, yet they are shaped globally through the interdependent evolution of the climate, energy, agriculture, and industrial systems. It is important for regional actors to account for the impacts of global changes on their systems in a globally consistent but regionally relevant way. This can be challenging because emerging global reference scenarios may not reflect regional challenges. Likewise, regionally specific scenarios may miss important global feedbacks. In this work, we contribute a scenario discovery framework to identify regionally-specific decision relevant scenarios from an ensemble of scenarios of global change. To this end, we generated a large ensemble of time evolving regional, multi-sector global change scenarios by a full factorial sampling of the underlying assumptions in the emerging shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Statistical and visual analytics were then used to discover which SSP assumptions are particularly consequential for various regions, considering a broad range of time-evolving metrics that encompass multiple spatial scales and sectors. In an illustrative examples, we identify the most important global change narratives to inform water resource scenarios for several geographic regions using the proposed scenario discovery framework. Our results highlight the importance of demographic and agricultural evolution compared to technical improvements in the energy sector. We show that narrowly sampling a few canonical reference scenarios provides a very narrow view of the consequence space, increasing the risk of tacitly ignoring major impacts. Even optimistic scenarios contain unintended, disproportionate regional impacts and intergenerational transfers of consequence. Formulating consequential scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures requires a better exploration of which quantitative measures of consequences are important, for whom are they important, where, and when. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support `backwards' scenario generation techniques, that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

Star formation in evolving molecular clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Völschow, M.; Banerjee, R.; Körtgen, B.

2017-09-01

Molecular clouds are the principle stellar nurseries of our universe; they thus remain a focus of both observational and theoretical studies. From observations, some of the key properties of molecular clouds are well known but many questions regarding their evolution and star formation activity remain open. While numerical simulations feature a large number and complexity of involved physical processes, this plethora of effects may hide the fundamentals that determine the evolution of molecular clouds and enable the formation of stars. Purely analytical models, on the other hand, tend to suffer from rough approximations or a lack of completeness, limiting their predictive power. In this paper, we present a model that incorporates central concepts of astrophysics as well as reliable results from recent simulations of molecular clouds and their evolutionary paths. Based on that, we construct a self-consistent semi-analytical framework that describes the formation, evolution, and star formation activity of molecular clouds, including a number of feedback effects to account for the complex processes inside those objects. The final equation system is solved numerically but at much lower computational expense than, for example, hydrodynamical descriptions of comparable systems. The model presented in this paper agrees well with a broad range of observational results, showing that molecular cloud evolution can be understood as an interplay between accretion, global collapse, star formation, and stellar feedback.

Scientific advances of the MyOcean projects underpinning the transition towards the Marine Copernicus service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brasseur, Pierre

2015-04-01

The MyOcean projects supported by the European Commission period have been developed during the 2008-2015 period to build an operational service of ocean physical state and ecosystem information to intermediate and downstream users in the areas of marine safety, marine resources, marine and coastal environment and weather, climate and seasonal forecasting. The "core" information provided to users is obtained through the combination of satellite and in situ observations, eddy-resolving modelling of the global ocean and regional european seas, biochemistry, ecosystem and sea-ice modelling, and data assimilation for global to basin scale circulation. A comprehensive R&D plan was established in 2010 to ensure the collection and provision of information of best possible quality for daily estimates of the ocean state (real-time), its short-term evolution, and its history over the past (reanalyses). A service validation methodology was further developed to ensure proper scientific evaluation and routine monitoring of the accuracy of MyOcean products. In this presentation, we will present an overview of the main scientific advances achieved in MyOcean using the NEMO modelling platform, ensemble-based assimilation schemes, coupled circulation-ecosystem, sea-ice assimilative models and probabilistic methodologies for ensemble validation. We will further highlight the key areas that will require additional innovation effort to support the Marine Copernicus service evolution.

Transmission-clearance trade-offs indicate that dengue virulence evolution depends on epidemiological context.

PubMed

Ben-Shachar, Rotem; Koelle, Katia

2018-06-15

An extensive body of theory addresses the topic of pathogen virulence evolution, yet few studies have empirically demonstrated the presence of fitness trade-offs that would select for intermediate virulence. Here we show the presence of transmission-clearance trade-offs in dengue virus using viremia measurements. By fitting a within-host model to these data, we further find that the interaction between dengue and the host immune response can account for the observed trade-offs. Finally, we consider dengue virulence evolution when selection acts on the virus's production rate. By combining within-host model simulations with empirical findings on how host viral load affects human-to-mosquito transmission success, we show that the virus's transmission potential is maximized at production rates associated with intermediate virulence and that the optimal production rate critically depends on dengue's epidemiological context. These results indicate that long-term changes in dengue's global distribution impact the invasion and spread of virulent dengue virus genotypes.

The fossil record of evolution: Data on diversification and extinction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sepkoski, J. J., Jr.

1991-01-01

Understanding of the evolution of complex life, and of the roles that changing terrestrial and extraterrestrial environments played in life's history, is dependent upon synthetic knowledge of the fossil record. Paleontologists have been describing fossils for more that two centuries. However, much of this information is dispersed in monographs and journal articles published throughout the world. Over the past several years, this literature was surveyed, and a data base on times of origination and extinction of fossil genera was compiled. The data base, which now holds approximately 32,000 genera, covers all taxonomic groups of marine animals, incorporates the most recent taxonomic assignments, and uses a detailed global time framework that can resolve originations and extinctions to intervals averaging three million years in duration. These data can be used to compile patterns of global biodiversity, measure rates of taxic evolution, and test hypotheses concerning adaptive radiations, mass extinctions, etc. Thus far, considerable effort was devoted to using the data to test the hypothesis of periodicity of mass extinction. Rates of extinction measured from the data base have also been used to calibrate models of evolutionary radiations in marine environments. It was observed that new groups, or clades of animals (i.e., orders and classes) tend to reach appreciable diversity first in nearshore environments and then to radiate in more offshore environments; during decline, these clades may disappear from the nearshore while persisting in offshore, deep water habitats. These observations have led to suggestions that there is something special about stressful or perturbed environments that promotes the evolution of novel kinds of animals that can rapidly replace their predecessors. The numerical model that is being investigated to study this phenomenon treats environments along onshore-offshore gradients as if they were discrete habitats. Other aspects of this investigation are presented.

Multiscale Spatial Modeling of Human Exposure from Local Sources to Global Intake.

PubMed

Wannaz, Cedric; Fantke, Peter; Jolliet, Olivier

2018-01-16

Exposure studies, used in human health risk and impact assessments of chemicals, are largely performed locally or regionally. It is usually not known how global impacts resulting from exposure to point source emissions compare to local impacts. To address this problem, we introduce Pangea, an innovative multiscale, spatial multimedia fate and exposure assessment model. We study local to global population exposure associated with emissions from 126 point sources matching locations of waste-to-energy plants across France. Results for three chemicals with distinct physicochemical properties are expressed as the evolution of the population intake fraction through inhalation and ingestion as a function of the distance from sources. For substances with atmospheric half-lives longer than a week, less than 20% of the global population intake through inhalation (median of 126 emission scenarios) can occur within a 100 km radius from the source. This suggests that, by neglecting distant low-level exposure, local assessments might only account for fractions of global cumulative intakes. We also study ∼10 000 emission locations covering France more densely to determine per chemical and exposure route which locations minimize global intakes. Maps of global intake fractions associated with each emission location show clear patterns associated with population and agriculture production densities.

Hybrid active contour model for inhomogeneous image segmentation with background estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Kaiqiong; Li, Yaqin; Zeng, Shan; Wang, Jun

2018-03-01

This paper proposes a hybrid active contour model for inhomogeneous image segmentation. The data term of the energy function in the active contour consists of a global region fitting term in a difference image and a local region fitting term in the original image. The difference image is obtained by subtracting the background from the original image. The background image is dynamically estimated from a linear filtered result of the original image on the basis of the varying curve locations during the active contour evolution process. As in existing local models, fitting the image to local region information makes the proposed model robust against an inhomogeneous background and maintains the accuracy of the segmentation result. Furthermore, fitting the difference image to the global region information makes the proposed model robust against the initial contour location, unlike existing local models. Experimental results show that the proposed model can obtain improved segmentation results compared with related methods in terms of both segmentation accuracy and initial contour sensitivity.

Energy-economic policy modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanstad, Alan H.

2018-01-01

Computational models based on economic principles and methods are powerful tools for understanding and analyzing problems in energy and the environment and for designing policies to address them. Among their other features, some current models of this type incorporate information on sustainable energy technologies and can be used to examine their potential role in addressing the problem of global climate change. The underlying principles and the characteristics of the models are summarized, and examples of this class of model and their applications are presented. Modeling epistemology and related issues are discussed, as well as critiques of the models. The paper concludes with remarks on the evolution of the models and possibilities for their continued development.

A global time-dependent model of thunderstorm electricity. I - Mathematical properties of the physical and numerical models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Browning, G. L.; Tzur, I.; Roble, R. G.

1987-01-01

A time-dependent model is introduced that can be used to simulate the interaction of a thunderstorm with its global electrical environment. The model solves the continuity equation of the Maxwell current, which is assumed to be composed of the conduction, displacement, and source currents. Boundary conditions which can be used in conjunction with the continuity equation to form a well-posed initial-boundary value problem are determined. Properties of various components of solutions of the initial-boundary value problem are analytically determined. The results indicate that the problem has two time scales, one determined by the background electrical conductivity and the other by the time variation of the source function. A numerical method for obtaining quantitative results is introduced, and its properties are studied. Some simulation results on the evolution of the displacement and conduction currents during the electrification of a storm are presented.

Attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness from 1982 to 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Z.; Xu, L.; Bi, J.; Myneni, R.; Knyazikhin, Y.

2012-12-01

Time series of remotely sensed vegetation indices data provide evidence of changes in terrestrial vegetation activity over the past decades in the world. However, it is difficult to attribute cause-and-effect to vegetation trends because variations in vegetation productivity are driven by various factors. This study investigated changes in global vegetation productivity first, and then attributed the global natural vegetation with greening trend. Growing season integrated normalized difference vegetation index (GSI NDVI) derived from the new GIMMS NDVI3g dataset (1982-2011was analyzed. A combined time series analysis model, which was developed from simper linear trend model (SLT), autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and Vogelsang's t-PST model shows that productivity of all vegetation types except deciduous broadleaf forest predominantly showed increasing trends through the 30-year period. The evolution of changes in productivity in the last decade was also investigated. Area of greening vegetation monotonically increased through the last decade, and both the browning and no change area monotonically decreased. To attribute the predominant increase trend of productivity of global natural vegetation, trends of eight climate time series datasets (three temperature, three precipitation and two radiation datasets) were analyzed. The attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness was summarized as relaxation of climatic constraints, fertilization and other unknown reasons. Result shows that nearly all the productivity increase of global natural vegetation was driven by relaxation of climatic constraints and fertilization, which play equally important role in driving global vegetation greenness.; Area fraction and productivity change fraction of IGBP vegetation land cover classes showing statistically significant (10% level) trend in GSI NDVIt;

Black-hole universe: time evolution.

PubMed

Yoo, Chul-Moon; Okawa, Hirotada; Nakao, Ken-ichi

2013-10-18

Time evolution of a black hole lattice toy model universe is simulated. The vacuum Einstein equations in a cubic box with a black hole at the origin are numerically solved with periodic boundary conditions on all pairs of faces opposite to each other. Defining effective scale factors by using the area of a surface and the length of an edge of the cubic box, we compare them with that in the Einstein-de Sitter universe. It is found that the behavior of the effective scale factors is well approximated by that in the Einstein-de Sitter universe. In our model, if the box size is sufficiently larger than the horizon radius, local inhomogeneities do not significantly affect the global expansion law of the Universe even though the inhomogeneity is extremely nonlinear.

Light-cone velocities after a global quench in a noninteracting model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najafi, K.; Rajabpour, M. A.; Viti, J.

2018-05-01

We study the light-cone velocity for global quenches in the noninteracting XY chain starting from a class of initial states that are eigenstates of the local z component of the spin. We point out how translation invariance of the initial state can affect the maximal speed at which correlations spread. As a consequence the light-cone velocity can be state dependent also for noninteracting systems: a new effect of which we provide clear numerical evidence and analytic predictions. Analogous considerations, based on numerical results, are drawn for the evolution of the entanglement entropy.

A GLOBAL GALACTIC DYNAMO WITH A CORONA CONSTRAINED BY RELATIVE HELICITY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prasad, A.; Mangalam, A., E-mail: avijeet@iiap.res.in, E-mail: mangalam@iiap.res.in

We present a model for a global axisymmetric turbulent dynamo operating in a galaxy with a corona that treats the parameters of turbulence driven by supernovae and by magneto-rotational instability under a common formalism. The nonlinear quenching of the dynamo is alleviated by the inclusion of small-scale advective and diffusive magnetic helicity fluxes, which allow the gauge-invariant magnetic helicity to be transferred outside the disk and consequently to build up a corona during the course of dynamo action. The time-dependent dynamo equations are expressed in a separable form and solved through an eigenvector expansion constructed using the steady-state solutions ofmore » the dynamo equation. The parametric evolution of the dynamo solution allows us to estimate the final structure of the global magnetic field and the saturated value of the turbulence parameter α{sub m}, even before solving the dynamical equations for evolution of magnetic fields in the disk and the corona, along with α-quenching. We then solve these equations simultaneously to study the saturation of the large-scale magnetic field, its dependence on the small-scale magnetic helicity fluxes, and the corresponding evolution of the force-free field in the corona. The quadrupolar large-scale magnetic field in the disk is found to reach equipartition strength within a timescale of 1 Gyr. The large-scale magnetic field in the corona obtained is much weaker than the field inside the disk and has only a weak impact on the dynamo operation.« less

Global water cycle and the coevolution of the Earth's interior and surface environment.

PubMed

Korenaga, Jun; Planavsky, Noah J; Evans, David A D

2017-05-28

The bulk Earth composition contains probably less than 0.3% of water, but this trace amount of water can affect the long-term evolution of the Earth in a number of different ways. The foremost issue is the occurrence of plate tectonics, which governs almost all aspects of the Earth system, and the presence of water could either promote or hinder the operation of plate tectonics, depending on where water resides. The global water cycle, which circulates surface water into the deep mantle and back to the surface again, could thus have played a critical role in the Earth's history. In this contribution, we first review the present-day water cycle and discuss its uncertainty as well as its secular variation. If the continental freeboard has been roughly constant since the Early Proterozoic, model results suggest long-term net water influx from the surface to the mantle, which is estimated to be 3-4.5×10 14  g yr -1 on the billion years time scale. We survey geological and geochemical observations relevant to the emergence of continents above the sea level as well as the nature of Precambrian plate tectonics. The global water cycle is suggested to have been dominated by regassing, and its implications for geochemical cycles and atmospheric evolution are also discussed.This article is part of the themed issue 'The origin, history and role of water in the evolution of the inner Solar System'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Global water cycle and the coevolution of the Earth’s interior and surface environment

PubMed Central

Planavsky, Noah J.; Evans, David A. D.

2017-01-01

The bulk Earth composition contains probably less than 0.3% of water, but this trace amount of water can affect the long-term evolution of the Earth in a number of different ways. The foremost issue is the occurrence of plate tectonics, which governs almost all aspects of the Earth system, and the presence of water could either promote or hinder the operation of plate tectonics, depending on where water resides. The global water cycle, which circulates surface water into the deep mantle and back to the surface again, could thus have played a critical role in the Earth’s history. In this contribution, we first review the present-day water cycle and discuss its uncertainty as well as its secular variation. If the continental freeboard has been roughly constant since the Early Proterozoic, model results suggest long-term net water influx from the surface to the mantle, which is estimated to be 3−4.5×1014 g yr−1 on the billion years time scale. We survey geological and geochemical observations relevant to the emergence of continents above the sea level as well as the nature of Precambrian plate tectonics. The global water cycle is suggested to have been dominated by regassing, and its implications for geochemical cycles and atmospheric evolution are also discussed. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The origin, history and role of water in the evolution of the inner Solar System’. PMID:28416728

A mixing evolution model for bidirectional microblog user networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Wei-Guo; Liu, Yun

2015-08-01

Microblogs have been widely used as a new form of online social networking. Based on the user profile data collected from Sina Weibo, we find that the number of microblog user bidirectional friends approximately corresponds with the lognormal distribution. We then build two microblog user networks with real bidirectional relationships, both of which have not only small-world and scale-free but also some special properties, such as double power-law degree distribution, disassortative network, hierarchical and rich-club structure. Moreover, by detecting the community structures of the two real networks, we find both of their community scales follow an exponential distribution. Based on the empirical analysis, we present a novel evolution network model with mixed connection rules, including lognormal fitness preferential and random attachment, nearest neighbor interconnected in the same community, and global random associations in different communities. The simulation results show that our model is consistent with real network in many topology features.

Atmospheric Modeling Using Accelerometer Data During Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) Flight Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tolson, Robert H.; Lugo, Rafael A.; Baird, Darren T.; Cianciolo, Alicia D.; Bougher, Stephen W.; Zurek, Richard M.

2017-01-01

The Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) spacecraft is a NASA orbiter designed to explore the Mars upper atmosphere, typically from 140 to 160 km altitude. In addition to the nominal science mission, MAVEN has performed several Deep Dip campaigns in which the orbit's closest point of approach, also called periapsis, was lowered to an altitude range of 115 to 135 km. MAVEN accelerometer data were used during mission operations to estimate atmospheric parameters such as density, scale height, along-track gradients, and wave structures. Density and scale height estimates were compared against those obtained from the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model and used to aid the MAVEN navigation team in planning maneuvers to raise and lower periapsis during Deep Dip operations. This paper describes the processes used to reconstruct atmosphere parameters from accelerometers data and presents the results of their comparison to model and navigation-derived values.

Moonage Daydream: Reassessing the Simple Model for Lunar Magma Ocean Crystallization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rapp, J. F.; Draper, D. S.

2016-01-01

Details of the differentiation of a global-scale lunar magma ocean (LMO) remain enigmatic, as the Moon is not simply composed of highlands anorthosite and a suite of mare basalts as inferred from early studies. Results from recent orbital missions, and the increasingly detailed study of lunar samples, have revealed a much larger range of lithologies, from relatively MgO-rich and "purest anorthosite" discovered on the lunar far side by the M3 instrument on Chandraayan-1 to more exotic lithologies such as Si-rich domes and spinel-rich clasts distributed globally. To understand this increasingly complex geology, we must understand the initial formation and evolution of the LMO, and the composition of the cumulates this differentiation could have produced. Several attempts at modelling such a crystallization sequence have been made, and have raised as many questions as they have answered. We present results from our ongoing experimental simulations of magma ocean crystallization, investigating two end-member bulk compositions (TWM and LPUM) under fully fractional crystallization conditions. These simulations represent melting of the entire silicate portion of the Moon, as an end-member starting point from which to begin assessing the evolution of the lunar interior and formation of the lunar crust.

Late time neutrino masses, the LSND experiment, and the cosmic microwave background.

PubMed

Chacko, Z; Hall, Lawrence J; Oliver, Steven J; Perelstein, Maxim

2005-03-25

Models with low-scale breaking of global symmetries in the neutrino sector provide an alternative to the seesaw mechanism for understanding why neutrinos are light. Such models can easily incorporate light sterile neutrinos required by the Liquid Scintillator Neutrino Detector experiment. Furthermore, the constraints on the sterile neutrino properties from nucleosynthesis and large-scale structure can be removed due to the nonconventional cosmological evolution of neutrino masses and densities. We present explicit, fully realistic supersymmetric models, and discuss the characteristic signatures predicted in the angular distributions of the cosmic microwave background.

Effects of basin-forming impacts on the thermal evolution and magnetic field of Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, J. H.; Arkani-Hamed, J.

2017-11-01

The youngest of the giant impact basins on Mars are either weakly magnetized or completely demagnetized, indicating that a global magnetic field was not present at the time those basins formed. Eight basins are sufficiently large that the impact heating associated with their formation could have penetrated below the core-mantle boundary (CMB). Here we investigate the thermal evolution of the martian interior and the fate of the global magnetic field using 3D mantle convection models coupled to a parameterized 1D core thermal evolution model. We find that the survival of the impact-induced temperature anomalies in the upper mantle is strongly controlled by the mantle viscosity. Impact heating from subsequent impacts can accumulate in stiffer mantles faster than it can be advected away, resulting in a thermal blanket that insulates an entire hemisphere. The impact heating in the core will halt dynamo activity, at least temporarily. If the mantle is initially cold, and the core initially superheated, dynamo activity may resume as quickly as a few Myr after each impact. However unless the lower mantle has either a low viscosity or a high thermal conductivity, this restored dynamo will last for only a few hundred Myr after the end of the sequence of impacts. Thus, we find that the longevity of the magnetic field is more strongly controlled by the lower mantle properties and relatively insensitive to the impact-induced temperature anomalies in the upper mantle.

How do glacier inventory data aid global glacier assessments and projections?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hock, R.

2017-12-01

Large-scale glacier modeling relies heavily on datasets that are collected by many individuals across the globe, but managed and maintained in a coordinated fashion by international data centers. The Global Terrestrial Network for Glaciers (GTN-G) provides the framework for coordinating and making available a suite of data sets such as the Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI), the Glacier Thickness Dataset or the World Glacier Inventory (WGI). These datasets have greatly increased our ability to assess global-scale glacier mass changes. These data have also been vital for projecting the glacier mass changes of all mountain glaciers in the world outside the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet, a total >200,000 glaciers covering an area of more than 700,000 km2. Using forcing from 8 to 15 GCMs and 4 different emission scenarios, global-scale glacier evolution models project multi-model mean net mass losses of all glaciers between 7 cm and 24 cm sea-level equivalent by the end of the 21st century. Projected mass losses vary greatly depending on the choice of the forcing climate and emission scenario. Insufficiently constrained model parameters likely are an important reason for large differences found among these studies even when forced by the same emission scenario, especially on regional scales.

MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC SIMULATION-DRIVEN KINEMATIC MEAN FIELD MODEL OF THE SOLAR CYCLE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simard, Corinne; Charbonneau, Paul; Bouchat, Amelie, E-mail: corinne@astro.umontreal.ca, E-mail: paulchar@astro.umontreal.ca, E-mail: amelie.bouchat@mail.mcgill.ca

We construct a series of kinematic axisymmetric mean-field dynamo models operating in the {alpha}{Omega}, {alpha}{sup 2}{Omega} and {alpha}{sup 2} regimes, all using the full {alpha}-tensor extracted from a global magnetohydrodynamical simulation of solar convection producing large-scale magnetic fields undergoing solar-like cyclic polarity reversals. We also include an internal differential rotation profile produced in a purely hydrodynamical parent simulation of solar convection, and a simple meridional flow profile described by a single cell per meridional quadrant. An {alpha}{sup 2}{Omega} mean-field model, presumably closest to the mode of dynamo action characterizing the MHD simulation, produces a spatiotemporal evolution of magnetic fields thatmore » share some striking similarities with the zonally-averaged toroidal component extracted from the simulation. Comparison with {alpha}{sup 2} and {alpha}{Omega} mean-field models operating in the same parameter regimes indicates that much of the complexity observed in the spatiotemporal evolution of the large-scale magnetic field in the simulation can be traced to the turbulent electromotive force. Oscillating {alpha}{sup 2} solutions are readily produced, and show some similarities with the observed solar cycle, including a deep-seated toroidal component concentrated at low latitudes and migrating equatorward in the course of the solar cycle. Various numerical experiments performed using the mean-field models reveal that turbulent pumping plays an important role in setting the global characteristics of the magnetic cycles.« less

What did the Romans ever do for us? Putting humans in global land models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bierkens, M. F.; Wada, Y.; Dermody, B.; Van Beek, L. P.

2016-12-01

During the late 1980s and early 1990s, awareness of the shortage of global water resources lead to the first detailed global water resources assessments using regional statistics of water use and observations of meteorological and hydrological variables. Shortly thereafter, the first macroscale hydrological models (MHM) appeared. In these models, blue water (i.e., surface water and renewable groundwater) availability was calculated by accumulating runoff over a stream network and comparing it with population densities or with estimated water demand for agriculture, industry and households. In this talk we review the evolution of human impact modelling in global land models with a focus on global water resources, touching upon developments of the last 15 years: i.e. calculating human water scarcity; estimating groundwater depletion; adding dams and reservoirs; fully integrating water use (abstraction, application, consumption, return flow) in the hydrology; simulating the effects of land use change. We identify four major challenges that hamper the further development of integrated water resources modelling and thus prohibit realistic projections of the future terrestrial water cycle in the Anthropocene. These are: 1) including the ability to model infrastructural changes and measures; 2) projecting future water demand and water use and associated measures; 3) including virtual water trade; 4) including land use change and landscape change. While all these challenges will likely benefit from hydro-economics and the newly developing field of socio-hydrology, we also show that especially for challenges 3 and 4 lessons can be drawn from the (pre)historic past. To make this point we provide two case studies: one modelling the virtual water trade in the Roman Empire and one modelling human-landscape interaction in prehistoric Calabria (Italy).

Improving global paleogeographic reconstructions since the Devonian using paleobiology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Wenchao; Zahirovic, Sabin; Williams, Simon; Flament, Nicolas; Müller, Dietmar

2017-04-01

Paleogeographic reconstructions are important to understand past eustatic and regional sea level change, the tectonic evolution of the planet, hydrocarbon genesis, and to constrain and interpret the dynamic topography predicted by time-dependent global mantle convection models. Several global paleogeographic compilations have been published, generally presented as static snapshots with varying temporal resolution and fixed spatial resolution. Published paleogeographic compilations are tied to a particular plate motion model, making it difficult to link them to alternative digital plate tectonic reconstructions. In order to address this issue, we developed a workflow to reverse-engineer reconstructed paleogeographies to their present-day coordinates and link them to any reconstruction model. Published paleogeographic compilations are also tied to a given dataset. We used fossil data from the Paleobiology Database to identify inconsistencies between fossils paleoenvironments and paleogeographic reconstructions, and to improve reconstructed terrestrial-marine boundaries by resolving these inconsistencies. We used the improved reconstructed paleogeographies to estimate the surface areas of global paleogeographic features (shallow marine environments, landmasses, mountains and ice sheets), to investigate the global continental flooding history since the late Paleozoic, which has inherent links to global eustasy as well as dynamic topography. Finally, we discuss the relationships between our modeled emerged land area and total continental area through time, continental growth models, and strontium isotope (87Sr/86Sr) signatures in ocean water. Our study highlights the flexibility of digital paleogeographic models linked to state-of-the-art plate tectonic reconstructions in order to better understand the interplay of continental growth and eustasy, with wider implications for understanding Earth's paleotopography, ocean circulation, and the role of mantle convection in shaping long-wavelength topography.

Model criticism based on likelihood-free inference, with an application to protein network evolution.

PubMed

Ratmann, Oliver; Andrieu, Christophe; Wiuf, Carsten; Richardson, Sylvia

2009-06-30

Mathematical models are an important tool to explain and comprehend complex phenomena, and unparalleled computational advances enable us to easily explore them without any or little understanding of their global properties. In fact, the likelihood of the data under complex stochastic models is often analytically or numerically intractable in many areas of sciences. This makes it even more important to simultaneously investigate the adequacy of these models-in absolute terms, against the data, rather than relative to the performance of other models-but no such procedure has been formally discussed when the likelihood is intractable. We provide a statistical interpretation to current developments in likelihood-free Bayesian inference that explicitly accounts for discrepancies between the model and the data, termed Approximate Bayesian Computation under model uncertainty (ABCmicro). We augment the likelihood of the data with unknown error terms that correspond to freely chosen checking functions, and provide Monte Carlo strategies for sampling from the associated joint posterior distribution without the need of evaluating the likelihood. We discuss the benefit of incorporating model diagnostics within an ABC framework, and demonstrate how this method diagnoses model mismatch and guides model refinement by contrasting three qualitative models of protein network evolution to the protein interaction datasets of Helicobacter pylori and Treponema pallidum. Our results make a number of model deficiencies explicit, and suggest that the T. pallidum network topology is inconsistent with evolution dominated by link turnover or lateral gene transfer alone.

The evolution of sub-monsoon systems in the Afro-Asian monsoon region during the Holocene - comparison of different transient climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, A.; Claussen, M.; Fischer, N.; Haberkorn, K.; Wagner, S.; Pfeiffer, M.; Jin, L.; Khon, V.; Wang, Y.; Herzschuh, U.

2014-05-01

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak, and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. They rather indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show, that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.

The evolution of sub-monsoon systems in the Afro-Asian monsoon region during the Holocene- comparison of different transient climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, A.; Claussen, M.; Fischer, N.; Haberkorn, K.; Wagner, S.; Pfeiffer, M.; Jin, L.; Khon, V.; Wang, Y.; Herzschuh, U.

2015-02-01

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in centennial rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. Rather they indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.

Chemo-dynamical signatures in simulated Milky Way-like galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spagna, Alessandro; Curir, Anna; Giammaria, Marco; Lattanzi, Mario G.; Murante, Giuseppe; Re Fiorentin, Paola

2018-04-01

We have investigated the chemo-dynamical evolution of a Milky Way-like disk galaxy, AqC4, produced by a cosmological simulation integrating a sub-resolution ISM model. We evidence a global inside-out and upside-down disk evolution, that is consistent with a scenario where the ``thin disk'' stars are formed from the accreted gas close to the galactic plane, while the older ``thick disk'' stars are originated in situ at higher heights. Also, the bar appears the most effective heating mechanism in the inner disk. Finally, no significant metallicity-rotation correlation has been observed, in spite of the presence of a negative [Fe/H] radial gradient.

Multiobjective Aerodynamic Shape Optimization Using Pareto Differential Evolution and Generalized Response Surface Metamodels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Madavan, Nateri K.

2004-01-01

Differential Evolution (DE) is a simple, fast, and robust evolutionary algorithm that has proven effective in determining the global optimum for several difficult single-objective optimization problems. The DE algorithm has been recently extended to multiobjective optimization problem by using a Pareto-based approach. In this paper, a Pareto DE algorithm is applied to multiobjective aerodynamic shape optimization problems that are characterized by computationally expensive objective function evaluations. To improve computational expensive the algorithm is coupled with generalized response surface meta-models based on artificial neural networks. Results are presented for some test optimization problems from the literature to demonstrate the capabilities of the method.

Evolution of Structure and Composition in Saturn's Rings Due to Ballistic Transport of Micrometeoroid Impact Ejecta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estrada, P. R.; Durisen, R. H.; Cuzzi, J. N.

2014-04-01

We introduce improved numerical techniques for simulating the structural and compositional evolution of planetary rings due to micrometeoroid bombardment and subsequent ballistic transport of impact ejecta. Our current, robust code, which is based on the original structural code of [1] and on the pollution transport code of [3], is capable of modeling structural changes and pollution transport simultaneously over long times on both local and global scales. We provide demonstrative simulations to compare with, and extend upon previous work, as well as examples of how ballistic transport can maintain the observed structure in Saturn's rings using available Cassini occultation optical depth data.

Mass Evolution of Mediterranean, Black, Red, and Caspian Seas from GRACE and Altimetry: Accuracy Assessment and Solution Calibration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loomis, B. D.; Luthcke, S. B.

2016-01-01

We present new measurements of mass evolution for the Mediterranean, Black, Red, and Caspian Seas as determined by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) GRACE time-variable global gravity mascon solutions. These new solutions are compared to sea surface altimetry measurements of sea level anomalies with steric corrections applied. To assess their accuracy, the GRACE and altimetry-derived solutions are applied to the set of forward models used by GSFC for processing the GRACE Level-1B datasets, with the resulting inter-satellite range acceleration residuals providing a useful metric for analyzing solution quality.

Understanding and predicting climate variations in the Middle East for sustainable water resource management and development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samuels, Rana

Water issues are a source of tension between Israelis and Palestinians. In the and region of the Middle East, water supply is not just scarce but also uncertain: It is not uncommon for annual rainfall to be as little as 60% or as much as 125% of the multiannual average. This combination of scarcity and uncertainty exacerbates the already strained economy and the already tensed political situation. The uncertainty could be alleviated if it were possible to better forecast water availability. Such forecasting is key not only for water planning and management, but also for economic policy and for political decision making. Water forecasts at multiple time scales are necessary for crop choice, aquifer operation and investments in desalination infrastructure. The unequivocal warming of the climate system adds another level of uncertainty as global and regional water cycles change. This makes the prediction of water availability an even greater challenge. Understanding the impact of climate change on precipitation can provide the information necessary for appropriate risk assessment and water planning. Unfortunately, current global circulation models (GCMs) are only able to predict long term climatic evolution at large scales but not local rainfall. The statistics of local precipitation are traditionally predicted using historical rainfall data. Obviously these data cannot anticipate changes that result from climate change. It is therefore clear that integration of the global information about climate evolution and local historical data is needed to provide the much needed predictions of regional water availability. Currently, there is no theoretical or computational framework that enables such integration for this region. In this dissertation both a conceptual framework and a computational platform for such integration are introduced. In particular, suite of models that link forecasts of climatic evolution under different CO2 emissions scenarios to observed rainfall data from local stations are developed. These are used to develop scenarios for local rainfall statistics such as average annual amounts, dry spells, wet spells and drought persistence. This suite of models can provide information that is not attainable from existing tools in terms of its spatial and temporal resolution. Specifically, the goal is to project the impact of established global climate change scenarios in this region and, how much of the change might be mitigated by proposed CO2 reduction strategies. A major problem in this enterprise is to find the best way to integrate global climatic information with local rainfall data. From the climatologic perspective the problem is to find the right teleconnections. That is, non local or global measurable phenomena that influence local rainfall in a way that could be characterized and quantified statistically. From the computational perspective the challenge is to model these subtle, nonlinear relationships and to downscale the global effects into local predictions. Climate simulations to the year 2100 under selected climate change scenarios are used. Overall, the suite of models developed and presented can be applied to answer most questions from the different water users and planners. Farmers and the irrigation community can ask "What is the probability of rain over the next week?" Policy makers can ask "How much desalination capacity will I need to meet demand 90% of the time in the climate change scenario over the next 20 years?" Aquifer managers can ask "What is the expected recharge rate of the aquifers over the next decade?" The use of climate driven answers to these questions will help the region better prepare and adapt to future shifts in water resources and availability.

Evolution of the concentration PDF in random environments modeled by global random walk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suciu, Nicolae; Vamos, Calin; Attinger, Sabine; Knabner, Peter

2013-04-01

The evolution of the probability density function (PDF) of concentrations of chemical species transported in random environments is often modeled by ensembles of notional particles. The particles move in physical space along stochastic-Lagrangian trajectories governed by Ito equations, with drift coefficients given by the local values of the resolved velocity field and diffusion coefficients obtained by stochastic or space-filtering upscaling procedures. A general model for the sub-grid mixing also can be formulated as a system of Ito equations solving for trajectories in the composition space. The PDF is finally estimated by the number of particles in space-concentration control volumes. In spite of their efficiency, Lagrangian approaches suffer from two severe limitations. Since the particle trajectories are constructed sequentially, the demanded computing resources increase linearly with the number of particles. Moreover, the need to gather particles at the center of computational cells to perform the mixing step and to estimate statistical parameters, as well as the interpolation of various terms to particle positions, inevitably produce numerical diffusion in either particle-mesh or grid-free particle methods. To overcome these limitations, we introduce a global random walk method to solve the system of Ito equations in physical and composition spaces, which models the evolution of the random concentration's PDF. The algorithm consists of a superposition on a regular lattice of many weak Euler schemes for the set of Ito equations. Since all particles starting from a site of the space-concentration lattice are spread in a single numerical procedure, one obtains PDF estimates at the lattice sites at computational costs comparable with those for solving the system of Ito equations associated to a single particle. The new method avoids the limitations concerning the number of particles in Lagrangian approaches, completely removes the numerical diffusion, and speeds up the computation by orders of magnitude. The approach is illustrated for the transport of passive scalars in heterogeneous aquifers, with hydraulic conductivity modeled as a random field.

Magnetosphere Modeling: From Cartoons to Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gombosi, T. I.

2017-12-01

Over the last half a century physics-based global computer simulations became a bridge between experiment and basic theory and now it represents the "third pillar" of geospace research. Today, many of our scientific publications utilize large-scale simulations to interpret observations, test new ideas, plan campaigns, or design new instruments. Realistic simulations of the complex Sun-Earth system have been made possible by the dramatically increased power of both computing hardware and numerical algorithms. Early magnetosphere models were based on simple E&M concepts (like the Chapman-Ferraro cavity) and hydrodynamic analogies (bow shock). At the beginning of the space age current system models were developed culminating in the sophisticated Tsyganenko-type description of the magnetic configuration. The first 3D MHD simulations of the magnetosphere were published in the early 1980s. A decade later there were several competing global models that were able to reproduce many fundamental properties of the magnetosphere. The leading models included the impact of the ionosphere by using a height-integrated electric potential description. Dynamic coupling of global and regional models started in the early 2000s by integrating a ring current and a global magnetosphere model. It has been recognized for quite some time that plasma kinetic effects play an important role. Presently, global hybrid simulations of the dynamic magnetosphere are expected to be possible on exascale supercomputers, while fully kinetic simulations with realistic mass ratios are still decades away. In the 2010s several groups started to experiment with PIC simulations embedded in large-scale 3D MHD models. Presently this integrated MHD-PIC approach is at the forefront of magnetosphere simulations and this technique is expected to lead to some important advances in our understanding of magnetosheric physics. This talk will review the evolution of magnetosphere modeling from cartoons to current systems, to global MHD to MHD-PIC and discuss the role of state-of-the-art models in forecasting space weather.

Galactic chemical evolution in hierarchical formation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arrigoni, Matias

2010-10-01

The chemical properties and abundance ratios of galaxies provide important information about their formation histories. Galactic chemical evolution has been modelled in detail within the monolithic collapse scenario. These models have successfully described the abundance distributions in our Galaxy and other spiral discs, as well as the trends of metallicity and abundance ratios observed in early-type galaxies. In the last three decades, however, the paradigm of hierarchical assembly in a Cold Dark Matter (CDM) cosmology has revised the picture of how structure in the Universe forms and evolves. In this scenario, galaxies form when gas radiatively cools and condenses inside dark matter haloes, which themselves follow dissipationless gravitational collapse. The CDM picture has been successful at predicting many observed properties of galaxies (for example, the luminosity and stellar mass function of galaxies, color-magnitude or star formation rate vs. stellar mass distributions, relative numbers of early and late-type galaxies, gas fractions and size distributions of spiral galaxies, and the global star formation history), though many potential problems and open questions remain. It is therefore interesting to see whether chemical evolution models, when implemented within this modern cosmological context, are able to correctly predict the observed chemical properties of galaxies. With the advent of more powerfull telescopes and detectors, precise observations of chemical abundances and abundance ratios in various phases (stellar, ISM, ICM) offer the opportunity to obtain strong constraints on galaxy formation histories and the physics that shapes them. However, in order to take advantage of these observations, it is necessary to implement detailed modeling of chemical evolution into a modern cosmological model of hierarchical assembly.

Computational Role of Tunneling in a Programmable Quantum Annealer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boixo, Sergio; Smelyanskiy, Vadim; Shabani, Alireza; Isakov, Sergei V.; Dykman, Mark; Amin, Mohammad; Mohseni, Masoud; Denchev, Vasil S.; Neven, Hartmut

2016-01-01

Quantum tunneling is a phenomenon in which a quantum state tunnels through energy barriers above the energy of the state itself. Tunneling has been hypothesized as an advantageous physical resource for optimization. Here we present the first experimental evidence of a computational role of multiqubit quantum tunneling in the evolution of a programmable quantum annealer. We developed a theoretical model based on a NIBA Quantum Master Equation to describe the multi-qubit dissipative cotunneling effects under the complex noise characteristics of such quantum devices.We start by considering a computational primitive, the simplest non-convex optimization problem consisting of just one global and one local minimum. The quantum evolutions enable tunneling to the global minimum while the corresponding classical paths are trapped in a false minimum. In our study the non-convex potentials are realized by frustrated networks of qubit clusters with strong intra-cluster coupling. We show that the collective effect of the quantum environment is suppressed in the critical phase during the evolution where quantum tunneling decides the right path to solution. In a later stage dissipation facilitates the multiqubit cotunneling leading to the solution state. The predictions of the model accurately describe the experimental data from the D-WaveII quantum annealer at NASA Ames. In our computational primitive the temperature dependence of the probability of success in the quantum model is opposite to that of the classical paths with thermal hopping. Specially, we provide an analysis of an optimization problem with sixteen qubits,demonstrating eight qubit cotunneling that increases success probabilities. Furthermore, we report results for larger problems with up to 200 qubits that contain the primitive as subproblems.

Tropical Pacific variability as a key pacemaker of the global warming staircase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosaka, Y.; Xie, S. P.

2016-12-01

Global-mean surface temperature (GMST) has increased since the 19th century with notable interdecadal accelerations and slowdowns, forming the global-warming "staircase". The last step of this staircase is the surface warming slowdown since the late 1990s, for which the transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) from a positive to negative state has been suggested as the leading mechanism. To examine the role of IPO in the entire warming staircase, a long pacemaker experiment is performed with a coupled climate model where tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are forced to follow the observed evolution since the late 19th century. The pacemaker experiment successfully reproduces the staircase-like global warming remarkably well since 1900. Without the tropical Pacific effect, the same model produces a continual warming from the 1900s to the 1960 followed by rapid warming. The successful reproduction identifies the tropical Pacific decadal variability as a key pacemaker of the GMST staircase. We further propose a method to remove internal variability from observed GMST changes for real-time monitoring of anthropogenic warming.

Model Assessment of the Impact on Ozone of Subsonic and Supersonic Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ko, Malcolm; Weisenstein, Debra; Danilin, Michael; Scott, Courtney; Shia, Run-Lie

2000-01-01

This is the final report for work performed between June 1999 through May 2000. The work represents continuation of the previous contract which encompasses five areas: (1) continued refinements and applications of the 2-D chemistry-transport model (CTM) to assess the ozone effects from aircraft operation in the stratosphere; (2) studying the mechanisms that determine the evolution of the sulfur species in the aircraft plume and how such mechanisms affect the way aircraft sulfur emissions should be introduced into global models; (3) the development of diagnostics in the AER 3-wave interactive model to assess the importance of the dynamics feedback and zonal asymmetry in model prediction of ozone response to aircraft operation; (4) the development of a chemistry parameterization scheme in support of the global modeling initiative (GMI); and (5) providing assessment results for preparation of national and international reports which include the "Aviation and the Global Atmosphere" prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "Assessment of the effects of high-speed aircraft in the stratosphere: 1998" by NASA, and the "Model and Measurements Intercomparison II" by NASA. Part of the work was reported in the final report. We participated in the SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE) campaign and we continue with our analyses of the data.

Erosion of volcanic ocean islands: insights from modeling, topographic analyses, and cosmogenic exposure dating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huppert, K.; Perron, J. T.; Ferrier, K.; Mukhopadhyay, S.; Rosener, M.; Douglas, M.

2016-12-01

With homogeneous bedrock, dramatic rainfall gradients, paleoshorelines, and datable remnant topography, volcanic ocean islands provide an exceptional natural experiment in landscape evolution. Analyses traversing gradients in island climate and bedrock age have the potential to advance our understanding of landscape evolution in a diverse range of continental settings. However, as small, conical, dominantly subsiding, and initially highly permeable landmasses, islands are unique, and it remains unclear how these properties influence their erosional history. We use a landscape evolution model and observations from the Hawaiian island of Kaua'i and other islands to characterize the topographic evolution of volcanic ocean islands. We present new measurements of helium-3 concentrations in detrital olivine from 20 rivers on Kaua'i. These measurements indicate that minimum erosion rates over the past 3 to 48 kyr are on average 2.6 times faster than erosion rates averaged over the past 3.9 to 4.4 Myr estimated from the volume of river canyons. This apparent acceleration of erosion rates on Kaua'i is consistent with observations on other islands; erosion rates estimated from the volume of river canyons on 31 islands worldwide, combined with observations of minimal incision on young island volcanoes, suggest a progressive increase in erosion rates over the first few million years of island landscape development. Using a landscape evolution model, we perform a set of experiments to quantify the contribution of subsidence, climate change, and initial geometry to changes in island erosion rates through time. We base these experiments on the evolution of Kaua'i, and we use measured erosion rates and the observed topography to calibrate the model. We find that progressive steepening of island topography by canyon incision drives an acceleration of erosion rates over time. Increases in mean channel and hillslope gradient with island age in the global compilation suggest this may be a general trend in the topographic evolution of volcanic ocean islands.

HIV Surveillance Among Pregnant Women Attending Antenatal Clinics: Evolution and Current Direction

PubMed Central

Garcia Calleja, Jesus M; Marsh, Kimberly; Zaidi, Irum; Murrill, Christopher; Swaminathan, Mahesh

2017-01-01

Since the late 1980s, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) sentinel serosurveillance among pregnant women attending select antenatal clinics (ANCs) based on unlinked anonymous testing (UAT) has provided invaluable information for tracking HIV prevalence and trends and informing global and national HIV models in most countries with generalized HIV epidemics. However, increased coverage of HIV testing, prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT), and antiretroviral therapy has heightened ethical concerns about UAT. PMTCT programs now routinely collect demographic and HIV testing information from the same pregnant women as serosurveillance and therefore present an alternative to UAT-based ANC serosurveillance. This paper reports on the evolution and current direction of the global approach to HIV surveillance among pregnant women attending ANCs, including the transition away from traditional UAT-based serosurveillance and toward new guidance from the World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS on the implementation of surveillance among pregnant women attending ANCs based on routine PMTCT program data. PMID:29208587

Climate Change and the Arboviruses: Lessons from the Evolution of the Dengue and Yellow Fever Viruses.

PubMed

Tabachnick, Walter J

2016-09-29

The impact of anticipated changes in global climate on the arboviruses and the diseases they cause poses a significant challenge for public health. The past evolution of the dengue and yellow fever viruses provides clues about the influence of changes in climate on their future evolution. The evolution of both viruses has been influenced by virus interactions involving the mosquito species and the primate hosts involved in virus transmission, and by their domestic and sylvatic cycles. Information is needed on how viral genes in general influence phenotypic variance for important viral functions. Changes in global climate will alter the interactions of mosquito species with their primate hosts and with the viruses in domestic cycles, and greater attention should be paid to the sylvatic cycles. There is great danger for the evolution of novel viruses, such as new serotypes, that could compromise vaccination programs and jeopardize public health. It is essential to understand (a) both sylvatic and domestic cycles and (b) the role of virus genetic and environmental variances in shaping virus phenotypic variance to more fully assess the impact of global climate change.

Towards a Global Service Registry for the World-Wide LHC Computing Grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Field, Laurence; Alandes Pradillo, Maria; Di Girolamo, Alessandro

2014-06-01

The World-Wide LHC Computing Grid encompasses a set of heterogeneous information systems; from central portals such as the Open Science Grid's Information Management System and the Grid Operations Centre Database, to the WLCG information system, where the information sources are the Grid services themselves. Providing a consistent view of the information, which involves synchronising all these informations systems, is a challenging activity that has lead the LHC virtual organisations to create their own configuration databases. This experience, whereby each virtual organisation's configuration database interfaces with multiple information systems, has resulted in the duplication of effort, especially relating to the use of manual checks for the handling of inconsistencies. The Global Service Registry aims to address this issue by providing a centralised service that aggregates information from multiple information systems. It shows both information on registered resources (i.e. what should be there) and available resources (i.e. what is there). The main purpose is to simplify the synchronisation of the virtual organisation's own configuration databases, which are used for job submission and data management, through the provision of a single interface for obtaining all the information. By centralising the information, automated consistency and validation checks can be performed to improve the overall quality of information provided. Although internally the GLUE 2.0 information model is used for the purpose of integration, the Global Service Registry in not dependent on any particular information model for ingestion or dissemination. The intention is to allow the virtual organisation's configuration databases to be decoupled from the underlying information systems in a transparent way and hence simplify any possible future migration due to the evolution of those systems. This paper presents the Global Service Registry architecture, its advantages compared to the current situation and how it can support the evolution of information systems.

Global patterns of diversity and selection in human tyrosinase gene.

PubMed

Hudjashov, Georgi; Villems, Richard; Kivisild, Toomas

2013-01-01

Global variation in skin pigmentation is one of the most striking examples of environmental adaptation in humans. More than two hundred loci have been identified as candidate genes in model organisms and a few tens of these have been found to be significantly associated with human skin pigmentation in genome-wide association studies. However, the evolutionary history of different pigmentation genes is rather complex: some loci have been subjected to strong positive selection, while others evolved under the relaxation of functional constraints in low UV environment. Here we report the results of a global study of the human tyrosinase gene, which is one of the key enzymes in melanin production, to assess the role of its variation in the evolution of skin pigmentation differences among human populations. We observe a higher rate of non-synonymous polymorphisms in the European sample consistent with the relaxation of selective constraints. A similar pattern was previously observed in the MC1R gene and concurs with UV radiation-driven model of skin color evolution by which mutations leading to lower melanin levels and decreased photoprotection are subject to purifying selection at low latitudes while being tolerated or even favored at higher latitudes because they facilitate UV-dependent vitamin D production. Our coalescent date estimates suggest that the non-synonymous variants, which are frequent in Europe and North Africa, are recent and have emerged after the separation of East and West Eurasian populations.

Design and analysis of forward and reverse models for predicting defect accumulation, defect energetics, and irradiation conditions

DOE PAGES

Stewart, James A.; Kohnert, Aaron A.; Capolungo, Laurent; ...

2018-03-06

The complexity of radiation effects in a material’s microstructure makes developing predictive models a difficult task. In principle, a complete list of all possible reactions between defect species being considered can be used to elucidate damage evolution mechanisms and its associated impact on microstructure evolution. However, a central limitation is that many models use a limited and incomplete catalog of defect energetics and associated reactions. Even for a given model, estimating its input parameters remains a challenge, especially for complex material systems. Here, we present a computational analysis to identify the extent to which defect accumulation, energetics, and irradiation conditionsmore » can be determined via forward and reverse regression models constructed and trained from large data sets produced by cluster dynamics simulations. A global sensitivity analysis, via Sobol’ indices, concisely characterizes parameter sensitivity and demonstrates how this can be connected to variability in defect evolution. Based on this analysis and depending on the definition of what constitutes the input and output spaces, forward and reverse regression models are constructed and allow for the direct calculation of defect accumulation, defect energetics, and irradiation conditions. Here, this computational analysis, exercised on a simplified cluster dynamics model, demonstrates the ability to design predictive surrogate and reduced-order models, and provides guidelines for improving model predictions within the context of forward and reverse engineering of mathematical models for radiation effects in a materials’ microstructure.« less

Design and analysis of forward and reverse models for predicting defect accumulation, defect energetics, and irradiation conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stewart, James A.; Kohnert, Aaron A.; Capolungo, Laurent

The complexity of radiation effects in a material’s microstructure makes developing predictive models a difficult task. In principle, a complete list of all possible reactions between defect species being considered can be used to elucidate damage evolution mechanisms and its associated impact on microstructure evolution. However, a central limitation is that many models use a limited and incomplete catalog of defect energetics and associated reactions. Even for a given model, estimating its input parameters remains a challenge, especially for complex material systems. Here, we present a computational analysis to identify the extent to which defect accumulation, energetics, and irradiation conditionsmore » can be determined via forward and reverse regression models constructed and trained from large data sets produced by cluster dynamics simulations. A global sensitivity analysis, via Sobol’ indices, concisely characterizes parameter sensitivity and demonstrates how this can be connected to variability in defect evolution. Based on this analysis and depending on the definition of what constitutes the input and output spaces, forward and reverse regression models are constructed and allow for the direct calculation of defect accumulation, defect energetics, and irradiation conditions. Here, this computational analysis, exercised on a simplified cluster dynamics model, demonstrates the ability to design predictive surrogate and reduced-order models, and provides guidelines for improving model predictions within the context of forward and reverse engineering of mathematical models for radiation effects in a materials’ microstructure.« less

Rate-independent dissipation in phase-field modelling of displacive transformations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tůma, K.; Stupkiewicz, S.; Petryk, H.

2018-05-01

In this paper, rate-independent dissipation is introduced into the phase-field framework for modelling of displacive transformations, such as martensitic phase transformation and twinning. The finite-strain phase-field model developed recently by the present authors is here extended beyond the limitations of purely viscous dissipation. The variational formulation, in which the evolution problem is formulated as a constrained minimization problem for a global rate-potential, is enhanced by including a mixed-type dissipation potential that combines viscous and rate-independent contributions. Effective computational treatment of the resulting incremental problem of non-smooth optimization is developed by employing the augmented Lagrangian method. It is demonstrated that a single Lagrange multiplier field suffices to handle the dissipation potential vertex and simultaneously to enforce physical constraints on the order parameter. In this way, the initially non-smooth problem of evolution is converted into a smooth stationarity problem. The model is implemented in a finite-element code and applied to solve two- and three-dimensional boundary value problems representative for shape memory alloys.

Dynamic colloidal assembly pathways via low dimensional models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Yuguang; Bevan, Michael A., E-mail: mabevan@jhu.edu; Thyagarajan, Raghuram

2016-05-28

Here we construct a low-dimensional Smoluchowski model for electric field mediated colloidal crystallization using Brownian dynamic simulations, which were previously matched to experiments. Diffusion mapping is used to infer dimensionality and confirm the use of two order parameters, one for degree of condensation and one for global crystallinity. Free energy and diffusivity landscapes are obtained as the coefficients of a low-dimensional Smoluchowski equation to capture the thermodynamics and kinetics of microstructure evolution. The resulting low-dimensional model quantitatively captures the dynamics of different assembly pathways between fluid, polycrystal, and single crystals states, in agreement with the full N-dimensional data as characterizedmore » by first passage time distributions. Numerical solution of the low-dimensional Smoluchowski equation reveals statistical properties of the dynamic evolution of states vs. applied field amplitude and system size. The low-dimensional Smoluchowski equation and associated landscapes calculated here can serve as models for predictive control of electric field mediated assembly of colloidal ensembles into two-dimensional crystalline objects.« less

Using Global Plate Velocity Boundary Conditions for Embedded Regional Geodynamic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taramon Gomez, Jorge; Morgan, Jason; Perez-Gussinye, Marta

2015-04-01

The treatment of far-field boundary conditions is one of the most poorly resolved issues for regional modeling of geodynamic processes. In viscous flow, the choice of far-field boundary conditions often strongly shapes the large-scale structure of a geosimulation. The mantle velocity field along the sidewalls and base of a modeling region is typically much more poorly known than the geometry of past global motions of the surface plates as constrained by global plate motion reconstructions. For regional rifting models it has become routine to apply highly simplified 'plate spreading' or 'uniform rifting' boundary conditions to a 3-D model that limits its ability to simulate the geodynamic evolution of a specific rifted margin. One way researchers are exploring the sensitivity of regional models to uncertain boundary conditions is to use a nested modeling approach in which a global model is used to determine a large-scale flow pattern that is imposed as a constraint along the boundaries of the region to be modeled. Here we explore the utility of a different approach that takes advantage of the ability of finite element models to use unstructured meshes than can embed much higher resolution sub-regions within a spherical global mesh. In our initial project to validate this approach, we create a global spherical mesh in which a higher resolution sub-region is created around the nascent South Atlantic Rifting Margin. Global Plate motion BCs and plate boundaries are applied for the time of the onset of rifting, continuing through several 10s of Ma of rifting. Thermal, compositional, and melt-related buoyancy forces are only non-zero within the high-resolution subregion, elsewhere, motions are constrained by surface plate-motion constraints. The total number of unknowns needed to solve an embedded regional model with this approach is less than 1/3 larger than that needed for a structured-mesh solution on a Cartesian or spherical cap sub-regional mesh. Here we illustrate the initial steps within this workflow for creating time-varying surface boundary conditions (using GPlates), and a time-variable unstructured 3-D spherical mesh.

Ecogeography, genetics, and the evolution of human body form.

PubMed

Roseman, Charles C; Auerbach, Benjamin M

2015-01-01

Genetic resemblances among groups are non-randomly distributed in humans. This population structure may influence the correlations between traits and environmental drivers of natural selection thus complicating the interpretation of the fossil record when modern human variation is used as a referential model. In this paper, we examine the effects of population structure and natural selection on postcranial traits that reflect body size and shape with application to the more general issue of how climate - using latitude as a proxy - has influenced hominin morphological variation. We compare models that include terms reflecting population structure, ascertained from globally distributed microsatellite data, and latitude on postcranial phenotypes derived from skeletal dimensions taken from a large global sample of modern humans. We find that models with a population structure term fit better than a model of natural selection along a latitudinal cline in all cases. A model including both latitude and population structure terms is a good fit to distal limb element lengths and bi-iliac breadth, indicating that multiple evolutionary forces shaped these morphologies. In contrast, a model that included only a population structure term best explained femoral head diameter and the crural index. The results demonstrate that population structure is an important part of human postcranial variation, and that clinally distributed natural selection is not sufficient to explain among-group differentiation. The distribution of human body form is strongly influenced by the contingencies of modern human origins, which calls for new ways to approach problems in the evolution of human variation, past and present. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Understanding protein evolution: from protein physics to Darwinian selection.

PubMed

Zeldovich, Konstantin B; Shakhnovich, Eugene I

2008-01-01

Efforts in whole-genome sequencing and structural proteomics start to provide a global view of the protein universe, the set of existing protein structures and sequences. However, approaches based on the selection of individual sequences have not been entirely successful at the quantitative description of the distribution of structures and sequences in the protein universe because evolutionary pressure acts on the entire organism, rather than on a particular molecule. In parallel to this line of study, studies in population genetics and phenomenological molecular evolution established a mathematical framework to describe the changes in genome sequences in populations of organisms over time. Here, we review both microscopic (physics-based) and macroscopic (organism-level) models of protein-sequence evolution and demonstrate that bridging the two scales provides the most complete description of the protein universe starting from clearly defined, testable, and physiologically relevant assumptions.

Some insights on the dust properties of nearby galaxies, as seen with Herschel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galliano, Frédéric

2017-12-01

Nearby galaxies are particularly relevant laboratories to study dust evolution due to the diversity of physical conditions they harbor and to the wealth of data at our disposal. In this paper, we review several recent advances in this field, mainly based on Herschel observations. We first discuss the problems linked with our ignorance of grain emissivities, and show that it can be constrained in some cases. New models are starting to incorporate these constraints. We then present methodological issues encountered when fitting spectral energy distributions, leading to biases in derived dust properties, and some attempts to solve them. Subsequently, we review studies scrutinizing dust evolution: (i) from a global point of view, inferring long term cosmic dust evolution; (ii) from a local point of view, looking for indices of dust processing in the ISM.

Genomics, transcriptomics and proteomics: enabling insights into social evolution and disease challenges for managed and wild bees.

PubMed

Trapp, Judith; McAfee, Alison; Foster, Leonard J

2017-02-01

Globally, there are over 20 000 bee species (Hymenoptera: Apoidea: Anthophila) with a host of biologically fascinating characteristics. Although they have long been studied as models for social evolution, recent challenges to bee health (mainly diseases and pesticides) have gathered the attention of both public and research communities. Genome sequences of twelve bee species are now complete or under progress, facilitating the application of additional 'omic technologies. Here, we review recent developments in honey bee and native bee research in the genomic era. We discuss the progress in genome sequencing and functional annotation, followed by the enabled comparative genomics, proteomics and transcriptomics applications regarding social evolution and health. Finally, we end with comments on future challenges in the postgenomic era. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Studying Biological Responses to Global Change in Atmospheric Oxygen

PubMed Central

Powell, Frank L.

2010-01-01

A popular book recently hypothesized that change in atmospheric oxygen over geological time is the most important physical factor in the evolution of many fundamental characteristics of modern terrestrial animals. This hypothesis is generated primarily using fossil data but the present paper considers how modern experimental biology can be used to test it. Comparative physiology and experimental evolution clearly show that changes in atmospheric O2 over the ages had the potential to drive evolution, assuming the physiological O2-sensitivity of animals today is similar to the past. Established methods, such as phylogenetically independent contrasts, as well new approaches, such as adding environmental history to phylogenetic analyses or modeling interactions between environmental stresses and biological responses with different rate constants, may be useful for testing (disproving) hypotheses about biological adaptations to changes in atmospheric O2. PMID:20385257

Global Magnetosphere Evolution During 22 June 2015 Geomagnetic Storm as Seen From Multipoint Observations and Comparison With MHD-Ring Rurrent Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buzulukova, N.; Moore, T. E.; Dorelli, J.; Fok, M. C. H.; Sibeck, D. G.; Angelopoulos, V.; Goldstein, J.; Valek, P. W.; McComas, D. J.

2015-12-01

On 22-23 June 2015 a severe geomagnetic storm occurred with Dst minimum of approximately -200nT. During this extreme event, multipoint observations of magnetospheric dynamics were obtained by a fleet of Geospace spacecraft including MMS, TWINS, Van-Allen and THEMIS. We present analysis of satellite data during that event, and use a global coupled MHD-ring current model (BATSRUS-CRCM) to connect multipoint observations from different parts of the magnetosphere. The analysis helps to identify different magnetospheric domains from multipoint measurements and various magnetospheric boundary motions. We will explore how the initial disturbance from the solar wind propagates through the magnetosphere causing energization of plasma in the inner magnetosphere and producing an extreme geomagnetic storm.

Energy stability of droplets and dry spots in a thin film model of hanging drops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheung, Ka-Luen; Chou, Kai-Seng

2017-10-01

The 2-D thin film equation describing the evolution of hang drops is studied. All radially symmetric steady states are classified, and their energy stability is determined. It is shown that the droplet with zero contact angle is the only global energy minimizer and the dry spot with zero contact angle is a strict local energy minimizer.

An American Perspective on the Implications for Business and Health Care of the Nordic Welfare Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Odom, Sue E.; Deis, Michael H.

2007-01-01

With the emergence of a global economy, it is imperative that faculty have an increased understanding of variables or factors affecting the welfare and health care systems of different countries. In addition, they must become knowledgeable about how the European Union plays a part in the evolution of these systems and be aware of the business…

Recent advances in understanding secondary organic aerosols: implications for global climate forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrivastava, Manish

2017-04-01

Anthropogenic emissions and land-use changes have modified atmospheric aerosol concentrations and size distributions over time. Understanding pre-industrial conditions and changes in organic aerosol due to anthropogenic activities is important because these features 1) influence estimates of aerosol radiative forcing and 2) can confound estimates of the historical response of climate to increases in greenhouse gases (e.g. the 'climate sensitivity'). Secondary organic aerosol (SOA), formed in the atmosphere by oxidation of organic gases, often represents a major fraction of global submicron-sized atmospheric organic aerosol. Over the past decade, significant advances in understanding SOA properties and formation mechanisms have occurred through measurements, yet current climate models typically do not comprehensively include all important processes. This presentation is based on a US Department of Energy Atmospheric Systems Research sponsored workshop, which highlighted key SOA processes overlooked in climate models that could greatly affect climate forcing estimates. We will highlight the importance of processes that influence the growth of SOA particles to sizes relevant for clouds and radiative forcing, including: formation of extremely low-volatility organics in the gas-phase; isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX) multi-phase chemistry; particle-phase oligomerization; and physical properties such as viscosity. We also highlight some of the recently discovered important processes that involve interactions between natural biogenic emissions and anthropogenic emissions such as effects of sulfur and NOx emissions on SOA. We will present examples of integrated model-measurement studies that relate the observed evolution of organic aerosol mass and number with knowledge of particle properties such as volatility and viscosity. We will also highlight the importance of continuing efforts to rank the most influential SOA processes that affect climate forcing, but are often missing in climate models. Ultimately, gas- and particle-phase chemistry processes that capture the dynamic evolution of number and mass concentrations of SOA particles need to be accurately and efficiently represented in regional and global atmospheric chemistry-climate models.

TESTING MODELS FOR THE SHALLOW DECAY PHASE OF GAMMA-RAY BURST AFTERGLOWS WITH POLARIZATION OBSERVATIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lan, Mi-Xiang; Dai, Zi-Gao; Wu, Xue-Feng, E-mail: dzg@nju.edu.cn

2016-08-01

The X-ray afterglows of almost one-half of gamma-ray bursts have been discovered by the Swift satellite to have a shallow decay phase of which the origin remains mysterious. Two main models have been proposed to explain this phase: relativistic wind bubbles (RWBs) and structured ejecta, which could originate from millisecond magnetars and rapidly rotating black holes, respectively. Based on these models, we investigate polarization evolution in the shallow decay phase of X-ray and optical afterglows. We find that in the RWB model, a significant bump of the polarization degree evolution curve appears during the shallow decay phase of both opticalmore » and X-ray afterglows, while the polarization position angle abruptly changes its direction by 90°. In the structured ejecta model, however, the polarization degree does not evolve significantly during the shallow decay phase of afterglows whether the magnetic field configuration in the ejecta is random or globally large-scale. Therefore, we conclude that these two models for the shallow decay phase and relevant central engines would be testable with future polarization observations.« less

Opinion formation in time-varying social networks: The case of the naming game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maity, Suman Kalyan; Manoj, T. Venkat; Mukherjee, Animesh

2012-09-01

We study the dynamics of the naming game as an opinion formation model on time-varying social networks. This agent-based model captures the essential features of the agreement dynamics by means of a memory-based negotiation process. Our study focuses on the impact of time-varying properties of the social network of the agents on the naming game dynamics. In particular, we perform a computational exploration of this model using simulations on top of real networks. We investigate the outcomes of the dynamics on two different types of time-varying data: (1) the networks vary on a day-to-day basis and (2) the networks vary within very short intervals of time (20 sec). In the first case, we find that networks with strong community structure hinder the system from reaching global agreement; the evolution of the naming game in these networks maintains clusters of coexisting opinions indefinitely leading to metastability. In the second case, we investigate the evolution of the naming game in perfect synchronization with the time evolution of the underlying social network shedding new light on the traditional emergent properties of the game that differ largely from what has been reported in the existing literature.

Chaos theory perspective for industry clusters development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Haiying; Jiang, Minghui; Li, Chengzhang

2016-03-01

Industry clusters have outperformed in economic development in most developing countries. The contributions of industrial clusters have been recognized as promotion of regional business and the alleviation of economic and social costs. It is no doubt globalization is rendering clusters in accelerating the competitiveness of economic activities. In accordance, many ideas and concepts involve in illustrating evolution tendency, stimulating the clusters development, meanwhile, avoiding industrial clusters recession. The term chaos theory is introduced to explain inherent relationship of features within industry clusters. A preferred life cycle approach is proposed for industrial cluster recessive theory analysis. Lyapunov exponents and Wolf model are presented for chaotic identification and examination. A case study of Tianjin, China has verified the model effectiveness. The investigations indicate that the approaches outperform in explaining chaos properties in industrial clusters, which demonstrates industrial clusters evolution, solves empirical issues and generates corresponding strategies.

Dust evolution, a global view I. Nanoparticles, nascence, nitrogen and natural selection … joining the dots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. P.

2016-12-01

The role and importance of nanoparticles for interstellar chemistry and beyond is explored within the framework of The Heterogeneous dust Evolution Model for Interstellar Solids (THEMIS), focusing on their active surface chemistry, the effects of nitrogen doping and the natural selection of interesting nanoparticle sub-structures. Nanoparticle-driven chemistry, and in particular the role of intrinsic epoxide-type structures, could provide a viable route to the observed gas phase OH in tenuous interstellar clouds en route to becoming molecular clouds. The aromatic-rich moieties present in asphaltenes probably provide a viable model for the structures present within aromatic-rich interstellar carbonaceous grains. The observed doping of such nanoparticle structures with nitrogen, if also prevalent in interstellar dust, could perhaps have important and observable consequences for surface chemistry and the formation of precursor pre-biotic species.

Search for Primitive Matter in the Solar System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Libourel, G.; Michel, P.; Delbo, M.; Ganino, C.; Recio-Blanco, A.; de Laverny, P.; Zolensky, M. E.; Krot, A. N.

2017-01-01

Recent astronomical observations and theoretical modeling led to a consensus regarding the global scenario of the formation of young stellar objects (YSO) from a cold molecular cloud of interstellar dust (organics and minerals) and gas that, in some cases, leads to the formation of a planetary system. In the case of our Solar System, which has already evolved for approximately 4567 Ma, the quest is to access, through the investigation of planets, moons, cometary and asteroidal bodies, meteorites, micrometeorites, and interplanetary dust particles, the primitive material that contains the key information about the early Solar System processes and its evolution. However, laboratory analyses of extraterrestrial samples, astronomical observations and dynamical models of the Solar System evolution have not brought yet any conclusive evidence on the nature and location of primitive matter in the Solar System, preventing a clear understanding of its early stages.

On the nature of the variability in the Martian thermospheric mass density: Results from the Mars Global Surveyor Electron Reflectometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

England, S.; Lillis, R. J.

2011-12-01

Knowledge of Mars' thermospheric mass density (~120--200 km altitude) is important for understanding the current state and evolution of the Martian atmosphere and for spacecraft such as the upcoming MAVEN mission that will fly through this region every orbit. Global-scale atmospheric models have been shown thus far to do an inconsistent job of matching mass density observations at these altitudes, especially on the nightside. Thus there is a clear need for a data-driven estimate of the mass density in this region. Given the wide range of conditions and locations over which these must be defined, the dataset of thermospheric mass densities derived from energy and angular distributions of super-thermal electrons measured by the MAG/ER experiment on Mars Global Surveyor, spanning 4 full Martian years, is an extremely valuable resource that can be used to enhance our prediction of these densities beyond what is given by such global-scale models. Here we present an empirical model of the thermospheric density structure based on the MAG/ER dataset. Using this new model, we assess the global-scale response of the thermosphere to dust storms in the lower atmosphere and show that this varies with latitude. Further, we examine the short- and longer-term variability of the thermospheric density and show that it exhibits a complex behavior with latitude and season that is indicative of both atmospheric conditions at lower altitudes and possible lower atmosphere wave sources.

Global views of energetic particle precipitation and their sources: Combining large-scale models with observations during the 21-22 January 2005 magnetic storm (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozyra, J. U.; Brandt, P. C.; Cattell, C. A.; Clilverd, M.; de Zeeuw, D.; Evans, D. S.; Fang, X.; Frey, H. U.; Kavanagh, A. J.; Liemohn, M. W.; Lu, G.; Mende, S. B.; Paxton, L. J.; Ridley, A. J.; Rodger, C. J.; Soraas, F.

2010-12-01

Energetic ions and electrons that precipitate into the upper atmosphere from sources throughout geospace carry the influences of space weather disturbances deeper into the atmosphere, possibly contributing to climate variability. The three-dimensional atmospheric effects of these precipitating particles are a function of the energy and species of the particles, lifetimes of reactive species generated during collisions in the atmosphere, the nature of the driving space weather disturbance, and the large-scale transport properties (meteorology) of the atmosphere in the region of impact. Unraveling the features of system-level coupling between solar magnetic variability, space weather and stratospheric dynamics requires a global view of the precipitation, along with its temporal and spatial variation. However, observations of particle precipitation at the system level are sparse and incomplete requiring they be combined with other observations and with large-scale models to provide the global context that is needed to accelerate progress. We compare satellite and ground-based observations of geospace conditions and energetic precipitation (at ring current, radiation belt and auroral energies) to a simulation of the geospace environment during 21-22 January 2005 by the BATS-R-US MHD model coupled with a self-consistent ring current solution. The aim is to explore the extent to which regions of particle precipitation track global magnetic field distortions and ways in which global models enhance our understanding of linkages between solar wind drivers and evolution of energetic particle precipitation.

InSitu SEM Investigation of Microstructural Damage Evolution and Strain Relaxation in a Melt Infiltrated SiC/SiC Composite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sevener, Kathy; Chen, Zhe; Daly, Sam; Tracy, Jared; Kiser, Doug

2016-01-01

With CMC components poised to complete flight certification in turbine engines on commercial aircraft within the near future, there are many efforts within the aerospace community to model the mechanical and environmental degradation of CMCs. Direct observations of damage evolution are needed to support these modeling efforts and provide quantitative measures of damage parameters used in the various models. This study was performed to characterize the damage evolution during tensile loading of a melt infiltrated (MI) silicon carbide reinforced silicon carbide (SiC/SiC) composite. A SiC/SiC tensile coupon was loaded to a maximum global stress of 30 ksi in a tensile fixture within an SEM while observations were made at 5 ksi increments. Both traditional image analysis and DIC (digital image correlation) were used to quantify damage evolution. With the DIC analysis, microscale damage was observed at the fiber-matrix interfaces at stresses as low as 5 ksi. First matrix cracking took place between 20 and 25 ksi, accompanied by an observable relaxation in strain near matrix cracks. Matrix crack opening measurements at the maximum load ranged from 200 nm to 1.5 m. Crack opening along the fiber-matrix interface was also characterized as a function of load and angular position relative to the loading axis. This characterization was funded by NASA GRC and was performed to support NASA GRC modeling of SiC/SiC environmental degradation

On evolutionary climate tracks in deep mantle volatile cycle computed from numerical mantle convection simulations and its impact on the habitability of the Earth-like planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakagawa, T.; Tajika, E.; Kadoya, S.

2017-12-01

Discussing an impact of evolution and dynamics in the Earth's deep interior on the surface climate change for the last few decades (see review by Ehlmann et al., 2016), the mantle volatile (particularly carbon) degassing in the mid-oceanic ridges seems to play a key role in understanding the evolutionary climate track for Earth-like planets (e.g. Kadoya and Tajika, 2015). However, since the mantle degassing occurs not only in the mid-oceanic ridges but also in the wedge mantle (island arc volcanism) and hotspots, to incorporate more accurate estimate of mantle degassing flux into the climate evolution framework, we developed a coupled model of surface climate-deep Earth evolution in numerical mantle convection simulations, including more accurate deep water and carbon cycle (e.g. Nakagawa and Spiegelman, 2017) with an energy balance theory of climate change. Modeling results suggest that the evolution of planetary climate computed from a developed model is basically consistent with an evolutionary climate track in simplified mantle degassing model (Kadoya and Tajika, 2015), but an occurrence timing of global (snowball) glaciation is strongly dependent on mantle degassing rate occurred with activities of surface plate motions. With this implication, the surface plate motion driven by deep mantle dynamics would play an important role in the planetary habitability of such as the Earth and Earth-like planets over geologic time-scale.

Integration of Extended MHD and Kinetic Effects in Global Magnetosphere Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Germaschewski, K.; Wang, L.; Maynard, K. R. M.; Raeder, J.; Bhattacharjee, A.

2015-12-01

Computational models of Earth's geospace environment are an important tool to investigate the science of the coupled solar-wind -- magnetosphere -- ionosphere system, complementing satellite and ground observations with a global perspective. They are also crucial in understanding and predicting space weather, in particular under extreme conditions. Traditionally, global models have employed the one-fluid MHD approximation, which captures large-scale dynamics quite well. However, in Earth's nearly collisionless plasma environment it breaks down on small scales, where ion and electron dynamics and kinetic effects become important, and greatly change the reconnection dynamics. A number of approaches have recently been taken to advance global modeling, e.g., including multiple ion species, adding Hall physics in a Generalized Ohm's Law, embedding local PIC simulations into a larger fluid domain and also some work on simulating the entire system with hybrid or fully kinetic models, the latter however being to computationally expensive to be run at realistic parameters. We will present an alternate approach, ie., a multi-fluid moment model that is derived rigorously from the Vlasov-Maxwell system. The advantage is that the computational cost remains managable, as we are still solving fluid equations. While the evolution equation for each moment is exact, it depends on the next higher-order moment, so that truncating the hiearchy and closing the system to capture the essential kinetic physics is crucial. We implement 5-moment (density, momentum, scalar pressure) and 10-moment (includes pressure tensor) versions of the model, and use local approximations for the heat flux to close the system. We test these closures by local simulations where we can compare directly to PIC / hybrid codes, and employ them in global simulations using the next-generation OpenGGCM to contrast them to MHD / Hall-MHD results and compare with observations.

ULF Wave Analysis and Radial Diffusion Calculation Using a Global MHD Model for the 17 March 2015 Storm and Comparison with the 17 March 2013 Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Z.; Hudson, M.; Paral, J.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Boyd, A. J.; Turner, D. L.

2016-12-01

The 17 March 2015 `St. Patrick's Day Storm' is the largest geomagnetic storm to date of Solar Cycle 24, with a Dst of -223 nT. The magnetopause moved inside geosynchronous orbit under high solar wind dynamic pressure and strong southward IMF Bz causing loss, however a subsequent drop in pressure allowed for rapid rebuilding of the radiation belts. Local heating has been modeled by other groups for this and the 17 March 2013 storm, only slightly weaker and showing a similar effect on electrons: first a rapid dropout due to inward motion of the magnetopause followed by rapid increase in flux above the pre-storm level and an even greater slow increase likely due to radial diffusion. The latter can be seen in temporal evolution of the electron phase space density measured by the Energetic Particle, Composition, and Thermal Plasma Suite (ECT) instrument on Van Allen Probes. Using the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry global MHD model driven by upstream solar wind measurements with the Magneotsphere-Ionosphere Coupler (MIX), we have simulated both `St. Patrick's Day'events, analyzing LFM electric and magnetic fields to calculate radial diffusion coefficients. These coefficients have been implemented in a radial diffusion code using the measured electron phase space density profile following the local heating and as the outer boundary condition for subsequent temporally evolution over the next 12 days, beginning 18 March 2015. Agreement with electron phase space density at 1000 MeV/G measured by the MagEIS component of the ECT instrument on Van Allen Probes (30 keV - 4 MeV) was much improved using radial diffusion coefficients from the MHD simulations relative to coefficients parametrized by a global geomagnetic activity index.

Evolution of global cooperation driven by risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Wang, Long

2012-05-01

Globalization facilitates our communication with each other, while it magnifies problems such as overharvesting of natural resources and human-induced climate change. Thus people all over the world are involved in a global social dilemma which calls for worldwide cooperation to reduce the risks of these extreme events and disasters. A collective target (threshold) is required to prevent such events. Everyone may lose their wealth once their total individual contributions fail to reach the threshold. To this end, we establish a model of threshold public goods games in a group-structured population and investigate its evolutionary process. We study multilevel public goods games with defectors, local cooperators, and global cooperators and are primarily concerned with how the global cooperative behavior evolves. We find that, compared with the standard public goods games, the strategy of global cooperation accounts for a bigger proportion in the stationary distribution of threshold public goods games. On the other hand, the fixation time of the global cooperation strategy is greatly shortened with increase of the probability of disaster striking. Therefore, global risks induced by the threshold can effectively promote global cooperation in environmental investment and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

Application of differential evolution algorithm on self-potential data.

PubMed

Li, Xiangtao; Yin, Minghao

2012-01-01

Differential evolution (DE) is a population based evolutionary algorithm widely used for solving multidimensional global optimization problems over continuous spaces, and has been successfully used to solve several kinds of problems. In this paper, differential evolution is used for quantitative interpretation of self-potential data in geophysics. Six parameters are estimated including the electrical dipole moment, the depth of the source, the distance from the origin, the polarization angle and the regional coefficients. This study considers three kinds of data from Turkey: noise-free data, contaminated synthetic data, and Field example. The differential evolution and the corresponding model parameters are constructed as regards the number of the generations. Then, we show the vibration of the parameters at the vicinity of the low misfit area. Moreover, we show how the frequency distribution of each parameter is related to the number of the DE iteration. Experimental results show the DE can be used for solving the quantitative interpretation of self-potential data efficiently compared with previous methods.

Application of Differential Evolution Algorithm on Self-Potential Data

PubMed Central

Li, Xiangtao; Yin, Minghao

2012-01-01

Differential evolution (DE) is a population based evolutionary algorithm widely used for solving multidimensional global optimization problems over continuous spaces, and has been successfully used to solve several kinds of problems. In this paper, differential evolution is used for quantitative interpretation of self-potential data in geophysics. Six parameters are estimated including the electrical dipole moment, the depth of the source, the distance from the origin, the polarization angle and the regional coefficients. This study considers three kinds of data from Turkey: noise-free data, contaminated synthetic data, and Field example. The differential evolution and the corresponding model parameters are constructed as regards the number of the generations. Then, we show the vibration of the parameters at the vicinity of the low misfit area. Moreover, we show how the frequency distribution of each parameter is related to the number of the DE iteration. Experimental results show the DE can be used for solving the quantitative interpretation of self-potential data efficiently compared with previous methods. PMID:23240004

Coevolution of cooperation and network structure under natural selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, D.-P.; Lin, H.; Shuai, J. W.

2011-02-01

A coevolution model by coupling mortality and fertility selection is introduced to investigate the evolution of cooperation and network structure in the prisoner's dilemma game. The cooperation level goes through a continuous phase transition vs. defection temptation b for low mortality selection intensity β and through a discontinuous one for infinite β. The cooperation level is enhanced most at β≈1 for any b. The local and global properties of the network structure, such as cluster and cooperating k-core, are investigated for the understanding of cooperation evolution. Cooperation is promoted by forming a tight cooperating k-core at moderate β, but too large β will destroy the cooperating k-core rapidly resulting in a rapid drop of the cooperation level. Importantly, the infinite β changes the normalized sucker's payoff S from 0 to 1-b and its dynamics of the cooperation level undergoes a very slow power-law decay, which leads the evolution into the regime of neutral evolution.

Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets.

PubMed

Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

2015-01-01

Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low.

Holistic energy system modeling combining multi-objective optimization and life cycle assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rauner, Sebastian; Budzinski, Maik

2017-12-01

Making the global energy system more sustainable has emerged as a major societal concern and policy objective. This transition comes with various challenges and opportunities for a sustainable evolution affecting most of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. We therefore propose broadening the current metrics for sustainability in the energy system modeling field by using industrial ecology techniques to account for a conclusive set of indicators. This is pursued by including a life cycle based sustainability assessment into an energy system model considering all relevant products and processes of the global supply chain. We identify three pronounced features: (i) the low-hanging fruit of impact mitigation requiring manageable economic effort; (ii) embodied emissions of renewables cause increasing spatial redistribution of impact from direct emissions, the place of burning fuel, to indirect emissions, the location of the energy infrastructure production; (iii) certain impact categories, in which more overall sustainable systems perform worse than the cost minimal system, require a closer look. In essence, this study makes the case for future energy system modeling to include the increasingly important global supply chain and broaden the metrics of sustainability further than cost and climate change relevant emissions.

Thermal niche estimators and the capability of poor dispersal species to cope with climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez-Fernández, David; Rizzo, Valeria; Cieslak, Alexandra; Faille, Arnaud; Fresneda, Javier; Ribera, Ignacio

2016-03-01

For management strategies in the context of global warming, accurate predictions of species response are mandatory. However, to date most predictions are based on niche (bioclimatic) models that usually overlook biotic interactions, behavioral adjustments or adaptive evolution, and assume that species can disperse freely without constraints. The deep subterranean environment minimises these uncertainties, as it is simple, homogeneous and with constant environmental conditions. It is thus an ideal model system to study the effect of global change in species with poor dispersal capabilities. We assess the potential fate of a lineage of troglobitic beetles under global change predictions using different approaches to estimate their thermal niche: bioclimatic models, rates of thermal niche change estimated from a molecular phylogeny, and data from physiological studies. Using bioclimatic models, at most 60% of the species were predicted to have suitable conditions in 2080. Considering the rates of thermal niche change did not improve this prediction. However, physiological data suggest that subterranean species have a broad thermal tolerance, allowing them to stand temperatures never experienced through their evolutionary history. These results stress the need of experimental approaches to assess the capability of poor dispersal species to cope with temperatures outside those they currently experience.

Examining South Atlantic Subtropical Cyclone Anita using the Satellite-Enhanced Regional Downscaling for Applied Studies Hourly Outputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaicberg, H.; Palmeira, A. C. P. A.; Nunes, A.

2017-12-01

Studies on South Atlantic cyclones are mainly compromised by scarcity of observations. Therefore, remote sensing and global (re) analysis products are usually employed in investigations of their evolution. However, the frequent use of global reanalysis might difficult the assessment of the characteristics of the cyclones found in South Atlantic. In that regard, studies on "subtropical" cyclones have been performed using the 25-km resolution, Satellite-enhanced Regional Downscaling for Applied Studies (SRDAS), a product developed at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro in Brazil. In SRDAS, the Regional Spectral Model assimilates precipitation estimates from environmental satellites, while dynamically downscaling a global reanalysis using the spectral nudging technique to maintain the large-scale features in agreement with the regional model solution. The use of regional models in the downscaling of general circulation models provides more detailed information on weather and climate. As a way of illustrating the usefulness of SRDAS in the study of the subtropical South Atlantic cyclones, the subtropical cyclone Anita was selected because of its intensity. Anita developed near Brazilian south/southeast coast, with damages to local communities. Comparisons with available observations demonstrated the skill of SRDAS in simulating such an extreme event.

Multiscale geomorphometric modeling of Mercury

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Florinsky, I. V.

2018-02-01

Topography is one of the key characteristics of a planetary body. Geomorphometry deals with quantitative modeling and analysis of the topographic surface and relationships between topography and other natural components of landscapes. The surface of Mercury is systematically studied by interpretation of images acquired during the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) mission. However, the Mercurian surface is still little explored by methods of geomorphometry. In this paper, we evaluate the Mercury MESSENGER Global DEM MSGR_DEM_USG_SC_I_V02 - a global digital elevation model (DEM) of Mercury with the resolution of 0.015625° - as a source for geomorphometric modeling of this planet. The study was performed at three spatial scales: the global, regional (the Caloris basin), and local (the Pantheon Fossae area) ones. As the initial data, we used three DEMs of these areas with resolutions of 0.25°, 0.0625°, and 0.015625°, correspondingly. The DEMs were extracted from the MESSENGER Global DEM. From the DEMs, we derived digital models of several fundamental morphometric variables, such as: slope gradient, horizontal curvature, vertical curvature, minimal curvature, maximal curvature, catchment area, and dispersive area. The morphometric maps obtained represent peculiarities of the Mercurian topography in different ways, according to the physical and mathematical sense of a particular variable. Geomorphometric models are a rich source of information on the Mercurian surface. These data can be utilized to study evolution and internal structure of the planet, for example, to visualize and quantify regional topographic differences as well as to refine geological boundaries.

Post-Fukushima Energy and Nuclear Policy Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masuda, Tatsuo

2014-07-01

The Fukushima nuclear disaster should be marked as a point of departure towards energy policy evolution needed in the 21st century. Japan had cast off the skin after the oil shocks of the 1970s, where energy efficiency and saving played a critical role. Japan might have looked very different without these innovative policies. The post-Fukushima Japan faces multiple challenges, each of which constitutes a daunting task for policymakers such as surging LNG import costs and nuclear restarting. However, overcoming these problems one by one is not enough. Intensifying climate impact alerts us to the arrival of a historical inflection point requiring a radical shift in energy model worldwide, where Japan will be best suited to take the lead in view of its energy history and technology. The on-going effort after Fukushima to renew her energy and nuclear policy is suggestive of her potential to develop an innovative energy model by casting off the skin again. Asia will become the "problem centre" of the world if it may fail to address global environmental problems deriving from the heavy use of energy (about 46% of world's energy used by Asia alone in 2035). If successful, on the contrary, Asia will become the "solution centre" benefiting the global community. Asia is too big to fail as the whole world will be badly affected. The new energy model of Japan will serve as "public goods" for Asian countries in developing their new energy model towards sustainable future.

Self-Consistent Ring Current/Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khazanov, G. V.; Gamayunov, K. V.; Gallagher, D. L.

2006-01-01

The self-consistent treatment of the RC ion dynamics and EMIC waves, which are thought to exert important influences on the ion dynamical evolution, is an important missing element in our understanding of the storm-and recovery-time ring current evolution. For example, the EMlC waves cause the RC decay on a time scale of about one hour or less during the main phase of storms. The oblique EMIC waves damp due to Landau resonance with the thermal plasmaspheric electrons, and subsequent transport of the dissipating wave energy into the ionosphere below causes an ionosphere temperature enhancement. Under certain conditions, relativistic electrons, with energies 21 MeV, can be removed from the outer radiation belt by EMIC wave scattering during a magnetic storm. That is why the modeling of EMIC waves is critical and timely issue in magnetospheric physics. This study will generalize the self-consistent theoretical description of RC ions and EMIC waves that has been developed by Khazanov et al. [2002, 2003] and include the heavy ions and propagation effects of EMIC waves in the global dynamic of self-consistent RC - EMIC waves coupling. The results of our newly developed model that will be presented at the meeting, focusing mainly on the dynamic of EMIC waves and comparison of these results with the previous global RC modeling studies devoted to EMIC waves formation. We also discuss RC ion precipitations and wave induced thermal electron fluxes into the ionosphere.

3 Lectures: "Lagrangian Models", "Numerical Transport Schemes", and "Chemical and Transport Models"

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglass, A.

2005-01-01

The topics for the three lectures for the Canadian Summer School are Lagrangian Models, numerical transport schemes, and chemical and transport models. In the first lecture I will explain the basic components of the Lagrangian model (a trajectory code and a photochemical code), the difficulties in using such a model (initialization) and show some applications in interpretation of aircraft and satellite data. If time permits I will show some results concerning inverse modeling which is being used to evaluate sources of tropospheric pollutants. In the second lecture I will discuss one of the core components of any grid point model, the numerical transport scheme. I will explain the basics of shock capturing schemes, and performance criteria. I will include an example of the importance of horizontal resolution to polar processes. We have learned from NASA's global modeling initiative that horizontal resolution matters for predictions of the future evolution of the ozone hole. The numerical scheme will be evaluated using performance metrics based on satellite observations of long-lived tracers. The final lecture will discuss the evolution of chemical transport models over the last decade. Some of the problems with assimilated winds will be demonstrated, using satellite data to evaluate the simulations.

Simulation of climate, ice sheets and CO2 evolution during the last four glacial cycles with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganopolski, Andrey; Brovkin, Victor

2017-11-01

In spite of significant progress in paleoclimate reconstructions and modelling of different aspects of the past glacial cycles, the mechanisms which transform regional and seasonal variations in solar insolation into long-term and global-scale glacial-interglacial cycles are still not fully understood - in particular, in relation to CO2 variability. Here using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 we performed simulations of the co-evolution of climate, ice sheets, and carbon cycle over the last 400 000 years using the orbital forcing as the only external forcing. The model simulates temporal dynamics of CO2, global ice volume, and other climate system characteristics in good agreement with paleoclimate reconstructions. These results provide strong support for the idea that long and strongly asymmetric glacial cycles of the late Quaternary represent a direct but strongly nonlinear response of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets to orbital forcing. This response is strongly amplified and globalised by the carbon cycle feedbacks. Using simulations performed with the model in different configurations, we also analyse the role of individual processes and sensitivity to the choice of model parameters. While many features of simulated glacial cycles are rather robust, some details of CO2 evolution, especially during glacial terminations, are sensitive to the choice of model parameters. Specifically, we found two major regimes of CO2 changes during terminations: in the first one, when the recovery of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) occurs only at the end of the termination, a pronounced overshoot in CO2 concentration occurs at the beginning of the interglacial and CO2 remains almost constant during the interglacial or even declines towards the end, resembling Eemian CO2 dynamics. However, if the recovery of the AMOC occurs in the middle of the glacial termination, CO2 concentration continues to rise during the interglacial, similar to the Holocene. We also discuss the potential contribution of the brine rejection mechanism for the CO2 and carbon isotopes in the atmosphere and the ocean during the past glacial termination.

Late paleozoic fusulinoidean gigantism driven by atmospheric hyperoxia.

PubMed

Payne, Jonathan L; Groves, John R; Jost, Adam B; Nguyen, Thienan; Moffitt, Sarah E; Hill, Tessa M; Skotheim, Jan M

2012-09-01

Atmospheric hyperoxia, with pO(2) in excess of 30%, has long been hypothesized to account for late Paleozoic (360-250 million years ago) gigantism in numerous higher taxa. However, this hypothesis has not been evaluated statistically because comprehensive size data have not been compiled previously at sufficient temporal resolution to permit quantitative analysis. In this study, we test the hyperoxia-gigantism hypothesis by examining the fossil record of fusulinoidean foraminifers, a dramatic example of protistan gigantism with some individuals exceeding 10 cm in length and exceeding their relatives by six orders of magnitude in biovolume. We assembled and examined comprehensive regional and global, species-level datasets containing 270 and 1823 species, respectively. A statistical model of size evolution forced by atmospheric pO(2) is conclusively favored over alternative models based on random walks or a constant tendency toward size increase. Moreover, the ratios of volume to surface area in the largest fusulinoideans are consistent in magnitude and trend with a mathematical model based on oxygen transport limitation. We further validate the hyperoxia-gigantism model through an examination of modern foraminiferal species living along a measured gradient in oxygen concentration. These findings provide the first quantitative confirmation of a direct connection between Paleozoic gigantism and atmospheric hyperoxia. © 2012 The Author(s). Evolution© 2012 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Chasing Neoproterozoic Atmospheric Oxygen Ghosts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bjerrum, C. J.; Canfield, D. E.; Dahl, T. W.

2016-12-01

Increasing atmospheric oxygen has been considered a necessary condition for the evolution of animal life for over half a century. While direct proxies for atmospheric oxygen are difficult to obtain, a number of indirect proxies have been giving us a ghost image of rising atmospheric oxygen at the close of the Precambrian. In this context, redox sensitive elements and isotopes represent the hallmark for a significant reduction in anoxic areas of the world ocean, implicating a significant rise of atmospheric oxygen during the Neoproterozoic. Here, we test to what degree redox sensitive elements in ancient marine sediments are proxies of atmospheric oxygen. We model the redox-chemical evolution of the shelf seas and ocean using a combination of 3D high resolution shelf sea models and a simpler global ocean biogeochemical model including climate weathering feedbacks, a free sea level and parameterized icecaps. We find that ecosystem evolution would have resulted in reorganization of the nutrient and redox balance of the shelf-ocean system causing a significant increase in oxygenated areas that permitted a boosting of trace metal concentrations in the remaining anoxic areas. While this reorganization takes place there is limited net change in the modelled atmospheric oxygen, warning us against interpreting changing trace metal concentrations and isotopes as reflecting a rise in atmospheric oxygen.

Remote Sensing and halocene Vegetation: History of Global Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

D'Antoni, Hector L.; Schaebitz, Frank

1995-01-01

Predictions of the future evolution of the earth's atmospheric chemistry and its impact on global circulation patterns are based on Global Climate Models (GCMs) that integrate the complex interactions of the biosphere, atmosphere and the oceans. Most of the available records of climate and environment are short-term records (from decades to a few hundred years) with convolved information of real trends and short-term fluctuations. GCMs must be tested beyond the short-term record of climate and environment to insure that predictions are based on trends and therefore are appropriate to support long term policy making. Unfortunately different parts of the world, weather stations are scattered, records extend over a period of only few years, and there are no systematic climate records for large portions of the globe.

A mechanics framework for a progressive failure methodology for laminated composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, Charles E.; Allen, David H.; Lo, David C.

1989-01-01

A laminate strength and life prediction methodology has been postulated for laminated composites which accounts for the progressive development of microstructural damage to structural failure. A damage dependent constitutive model predicts the stress redistribution in an average sense that accompanies damage development in laminates. Each mode of microstructural damage is represented by a second-order tensor valued internal state variable which is a strain like quantity. The mechanics framework together with the global-local strategy for predicting laminate strength and life is presented in the paper. The kinematic effects of damage are represented by effective engineering moduli in the global analysis and the results of the global analysis provide the boundary conditions for the local ply level stress analysis. Damage evolution laws are based on experimental results.

One-Dimensional Convective Thermal Evolution Calculation Using a Modified Mixing Length Theory: Application to Saturnian Icy Satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamata, Shunichi

2018-01-01

Solid-state thermal convection plays a major role in the thermal evolution of solid planetary bodies. Solving the equation system for thermal evolution considering convection requires 2-D or 3-D modeling, resulting in large calculation costs. A 1-D calculation scheme based on mixing length theory (MLT) requires a much lower calculation cost and is suitable for parameter studies. A major concern for the MLT scheme is its accuracy due to a lack of detailed comparisons with higher dimensional schemes. In this study, I quantify its accuracy via comparisons of thermal profiles obtained by 1-D MLT and 3-D numerical schemes. To improve the accuracy, I propose a new definition of the mixing length (l), which is a parameter controlling the efficiency of heat transportation due to convection, for a bottom-heated convective layer. Adopting this new definition of l, I investigate the thermal evolution of Saturnian icy satellites, Dione and Enceladus, under a wide variety of parameter conditions. Calculation results indicate that each satellite requires several tens of GW of heat to possess a thick global subsurface ocean suggested from geophysical analyses. Dynamical tides may be able to account for such an amount of heat, though the reference viscosity of Dione's ice and the ammonia content of Dione's ocean need to be very high. Otherwise, a thick global ocean in Dione cannot be maintained, implying that its shell is not in a minimum stress state.

Evolution of computational chemistry, the "launch pad" to scientific computational models: The early days from a personal account, the present status from the TACC-2012 congress, and eventual future applications from the global simulation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clementi, Enrico

2012-06-01

This is the introductory chapter to the AIP Proceedings volume "Theory and Applications of Computational Chemistry: The First Decade of the Second Millennium" where we discuss the evolution of "computational chemistry". Very early variational computational chemistry developments are reported in Sections 1 to 7, and 11, 12 by recalling some of the computational chemistry contributions by the author and his collaborators (from late 1950 to mid 1990); perturbation techniques are not considered in this already extended work. Present day's computational chemistry is partly considered in Sections 8 to 10 where more recent studies by the author and his collaborators are discussed, including the Hartree-Fock-Heitler-London method; a more general discussion on present day computational chemistry is presented in Section 14. The following chapters of this AIP volume provide a view of modern computational chemistry. Future computational chemistry developments can be extrapolated from the chapters of this AIP volume; further, in Sections 13 and 15 present an overall analysis on computational chemistry, obtained from the Global Simulation approach, by considering the evolution of scientific knowledge confronted with the opportunities offered by modern computers.

Global migration of influenza A viruses in swine

PubMed Central

Nelson, Martha I.; Viboud, Cécile; Vincent, Amy L.; Culhane, Marie R.; Detmer, Susan E.; Wentworth, David E.; Rambaut, Andrew; Suchard, Marc A.; Holmes, Edward C.; Lemey, Philippe

2015-01-01

The complex and unresolved evolutionary origins of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic exposed major gaps in our knowledge of the global spatial ecology and evolution of influenza A viruses in swine (swIAVs). Here we undertake an expansive phylogenetic analysis of swIAV sequence data and demonstrate that the global live swine trade strongly predicts the spatial dissemination of swIAVs, with Europe and North America acting as sources of viruses in Asian countries. In contrast, China has the world’s largest swine population but is not a major exporter of live swine, and is not an important source of swIAVs in neighboring Asian countries or globally. A meta-population simulation model incorporating trade data predicts that the global ecology of swIAVs is more complex than previously thought, and the US and China’s large swine populations are unlikely to be representative of swIAV diversity in their respective geographic regions, requiring independent surveillance efforts throughout Latin America and Asia. PMID:25813399

Interannual evolutions of (sub)mesoscale dynamics in the Bay of Biscay and the English Channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charria, G.; Vandermeirsch, F.; Theetten, S.; Yelekçi, Ö.; Assassi, C.; Audiffren, N. J.

2016-02-01

In a context of global change, ocean regions as the Bay of the Biscay and the English Channel represent key domains to estimate the local impact on the coasts of interannual evolutions. Indeed, the coastal (considering in this project regions above the continental shelf) and regional (including the continental slope and the abyssal plain) environments are sensitive to the long-term fluctuations driven by the open ocean, the atmosphere and the watersheds. These evolutions can have impacts on the whole ecosystem. To understand and, by extension, forecast evolutions of these ecosystems, we need to go further in the description and the analysis of the past interannual variability over decadal to pluri-decadal periods. This variability can be described at different spatial scales from small (< 1 km) to basin scales (> 100 km). With a focus on smaller scales, the modelled dynamics, using a Coastal Circulation Model on national computing resources (GENCI/CINES), is discussed from interannual simulations (10 to 53 years) with different spatial (4 km to 1 km) and vertical (40 to 100 sigma levels) resolutions compared with available in situ observations. Exploring vorticity and kinetic energy based diagnostics; dynamical patterns are described including the vertical distribution of the mesoscale activity. Despite the lack of deep and spatially distributed observations, present numerical experiments draw a first picture of the 3D mesoscale distribution and its evolution at interannual time scales.

Evolution and characterization of drought events from GRACE and other satellite and observation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, M.; A, G.; Velicogna, I.; Kimball, J. S.

2015-12-01

We use GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) changes to calculate a newly developed global drought severity index (GRACE-DSI) for monthly monitoring of water supply changes during 2002-2015. We compare GRACE-DSI with Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and other ancillary data to characterize drought timing, evolution and magnitude in the continental US since 2002. Overall GRACE-DSI and PDSI show an excellent correspondence in the US. However PDSI is very sensitive to atmospheric moisture stress, while GRACE-DSI only responds to changes in terrestrial water storage. We use the complementary nature of these two indices together with temperature and precipitation observations to characterize drought evolution and its nature. For instance, during the 2012 flash drought in the Great Plains, the PDSI decreases several months earlier than the GRACE-DSI in response to the enhanced atmosphere moisture demand caused by unusual early season warming. When the drought peaks later in the summer, the PDSI indicates exceptional drought, while the GRACE-DSI observes moderate drought conditions in the underlying total water supply, implying a meteorological drought in nature. GRACE-DSI is based solely on satellite observations; hence it has the advantage of not being affected by uncertainty associated with variable that are not well known at the global scale (e.g. precipitation estimates) and by biases associated to global climate model outputs. We find that GRACE-DSI captures major drought events in the globe occurring during 2002-2015, including those in sub-Sahara Africa, Australia, Amazon, Asia, North America and the Arctic.

Planetary Geophysics and Tectonics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parmentier, E. M.

1997-01-01

Research supported by grant NAGW-1928 has addressed a variety of problems related to planetary evolution. One important focus has been on questions related to the role of chemical buoyancy in planetary evolution with application to both Venus and the Moon. We have developed a model for the evolution of the Moon (Hess and Parmentier, 1995) in which dense, highly radioactive, late stage magma ocean cumulates sink forming a core. This core heats the overlying, chemically layered mantle giving rise to a heated, chemically well-mixed layer that thickens with time. This Mixed layer eventually becomes hot enough and thick enough that its top begins to melt at a pressure low enough that melt is buoyant, thus creating mare basalts from a high pressure source of the correct composition and at an appropriate time in lunar evolution. In work completed during the last year, numerical experiments on convection in a chemically stably stratified fluid layer heated from below have been completed. These results show us how to calculate the evolution of a mixed layer in the Moon, depending on the heat production in the ilmenite- cumulate core and the chemical stratification of the overlying mantle. Chemical stratification of the mantle after its initial differentiation is would trap heat in the deep interior and prevent the rapid rise of plumes with accompanying volcanism. This trapping of heat in the interior can explain the thickness of the lunar lithosphere as a function of time as well as the magmatic evolution. We show that heat transported to the base of the lithosphere at a rate determined by current estimates of radioactivity in the Moon would not satisfy constraints on elastic lithosphere thickness from tectonic feature associated with basin loading. Trapping heat at depth by a chemically stratified mantle may also explain the absence of global compressional features on the surface that previous models predict for an initially hot lunar interior. For Venus, we developed a model in which the chemical buoyancy of crust and a depleted mantle layer stabilizes the lithosphere for long periods of time and provides a mechanism of episodic planetary evolution (Parmentier and Hess, 1992). Continued thickening of a residual depleted mantle layer eventually suppresses pressure release melting and the creation of depleted mantle. Continued cooling then allows the lithosphere to become heavier than the underlying hotter, undepleted mantle. This repeated instability can occur on time scales appropriate for episodic global resurfacing on Venus. We have also examined the role of the gabbro-eclogite phase transformation on crust and lithosphere stability and as a mechanism of crustal recycling in the absence of plate tectonics. Our work thus far concentrates on the scale of instability that would occur due to cooling or crustal thickening associated with horizontal shortening. Whether repeated overturn can explain the evolution of Venus depends in part on whether sufficient heat transfer can occur between overturns and on constraints provided by understanding observed surface features and evolution.

Geometry Genetics and Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siggia, Eric

2011-03-01

Darwin argued that highly perfected organs such as the vertebrate eye could evolve by a series of small changes, each of which conferred a selective advantage. In the context of gene networks, this idea can be recast into a predictive algorithm, namely find networks that can be built by incremental adaptation (gradient search) to perform some task. It embodies a ``kinetic'' view of evolution where a solution that is quick to evolve is preferred over a global optimum. Examples of biochemical kinetic networks were evolved for temporal adaptation, temperature compensated entrainable clocks, explore-exploit trade off in signal discrimination, will be presented as well as networks that model the spatially periodic somites (vertebrae) and HOX gene expression in the vertebrate embryo. These models appear complex by the criterion of 19th century applied mathematics since there is no separation of time or spatial scales, yet they are all derivable by gradient optimization of simple functions (several in the Pareto evolution) often based on the Shannon entropy of the time or spatial response. Joint work with P. Francois, Physics Dept. McGill University. With P. Francois, Physics Dept. McGill University

Evolution of the Orszag-Tang vortex system in a compressible medium. II - Supersonic flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Picone, J. Michael; Dahlburg, Russell B.

1991-01-01

A study is presented on the effect of embedded supersonic flows and the resulting emerging shock waves on phenomena associated with MHD turbulence, including reconnection, the formation of current sheets and vortex structures, and the evolution of spatial and temporal correlations among physical variables. A two-dimensional model problem, the Orszag-Tang (1979) vortex system, is chosen, which involves decay from nonrandom initial conditions. The system is doubly periodic, and the initial conditions consist of single-mode solenoidal velocity and magnetic fields, each containing X points and O points. The initial mass density is flat, and the initial pressure fluctuations are incompressible, balancing the local forces for a magnetofluid of unit mass density. Results on the evolution of the local structure of the flow field, the global properties of the system, and spectral correlations are presented. The important dynamical properties and observational consequences of embedded supersonic regions and emerging shocks in the Orszag-Tang model of an MHD system undergoing reconnection are discussed. Conclusions are drawn regarding the effects of local supersonic regions on MHD turbulence.

On the emergence of macroscopic transport barriers from staircase structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashourvan, Arash; Diamond, P. H.

2017-01-01

This paper presents a theory for the formation and evolution of coupled density staircases and zonal shear profiles in a simple model of drift-wave turbulence. Density, vorticity, and fluctuation potential enstrophy are the fields evolved in this system. Formation of staircase structures is due to inhomogeneous mixing of generalized potential vorticity (PV), resulting in the sharpening of density and vorticity gradients in some regions, and weakening them in others. When the PV gradients steepen, the density staircase structure develops into a lattice of mesoscale "jumps," and "steps," which are, respectively, the regions of local gradient steepening and flattening. The jumps merge and migrate in radius, leading to the development of macroscale profile structures from mesoscale elements. The positive feedback process, which drives the staircase formation occurs via a Rhines scale dependent mixing length. We present extensive studies of bifurcation physics of the global state, including results on the global flux-gradient relations (flux landscapes) predicted by the model. Furthermore, we demonstrate that, depending on the sources and boundary conditions, either a region of enhanced confinement, or a region with strong turbulence can form at the edge. This suggests that the profile self-organization is a global process, though one which can be described by a local, but nonlinear model. This model is the first to demonstrate how the mesoscale condensation of staircases leads to global states of enhanced confinement.

The Impact of Globalization on the Formation of a Global Political System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ilyin, Ilya V.; Rozanov, Alexander Sergeevich

2013-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of globalization on the formation of a global political system. Design/methodology/approach: Taking into account the fact of global political evolution, the authors of the paper point out that the global political structures tend to change. Findings: During the past millennium the global…

The Life Sciences program at the NASA Ames Research Center - An overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vernikos-Danellis, Joan; Sharp, Joseph C.

1989-01-01

The research projects planned for the Life Sciences program have a goal of answering basic questions concerning the nature of life itself and its evolution in the universe from basic elements, as well as the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. The program also includes studies of the evolution and development of life on the planet earth, and the global changes occurring today that affect life on the earth. The paper describes the simulation models developed to study the effects of space, the flight projects of the program, and the biomedical program, which currently focuses on the physiological changes in the human body that are associated with space flights and the interactions among these changes.

Evolution of canalizing Boolean networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szejka, A.; Drossel, B.

2007-04-01

Boolean networks with canalizing functions are used to model gene regulatory networks. In order to learn how such networks may behave under evolutionary forces, we simulate the evolution of a single Boolean network by means of an adaptive walk, which allows us to explore the fitness landscape. Mutations change the connections and the functions of the nodes. Our fitness criterion is the robustness of the dynamical attractors against small perturbations. We find that with this fitness criterion the global maximum is always reached and that there is a huge neutral space of 100% fitness. Furthermore, in spite of having such a high degree of robustness, the evolved networks still share many features with “chaotic” networks.

Competition-Driven Network Dynamics: Emergence of a Scale-Free Leadership Structure and Collective Efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anghel, M.; Toroczkai, Zoltán; Bassler, Kevin E.; Korniss, G.

2004-02-01

Using the minority game as a model for competition dynamics, we investigate the effects of interagent communications across a network on the global evolution of the game. Agent communication across this network leads to the formation of an influence network, which is dynamically coupled to the evolution of the game, and it is responsible for the information flow driving the agents' actions. We show that the influence network spontaneously develops hubs with a broad distribution of in-degrees, defining a scale-free robust leadership structure. Furthermore, in realistic parameter ranges, facilitated by information exchange on the network, agents can generate a high degree of cooperation making the collective almost maximally efficient.

Coupled land surface/hydrologic/atmospheric models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pielke, Roger; Steyaert, Lou; Arritt, Ray; Lahtakia, Mercedes; Smith, Chris; Ziegler, Conrad; Soong, Su Tzai; Avissar, Roni; Wetzel, Peter; Sellers, Piers

1993-01-01

The topics covered include the following: prototype land cover characteristics data base for the conterminous United States; surface evapotranspiration effects on cumulus convection and implications for mesoscale models; the use of complex treatment of surface hydrology and thermodynamics within a mesoscale model and some related issues; initialization of soil-water content for regional-scale atmospheric prediction models; impact of surface properties on dryline and MCS evolution; a numerical simulation of heavy precipitation over the complex topography of California; representing mesoscale fluxes induced by landscape discontinuities in global climate models; emphasizing the role of subgrid-scale heterogeneity in surface-air interaction; and problems with modeling and measuring biosphere-atmosphere exchanges of energy, water, and carbon on large scales.

Regional 3-D Modeling of Ground Geoelectric Field for the Northeast United States due to Realistic Geomagnetic Disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivannikova, E.; Kruglyakov, M.; Kuvshinov, A. V.; Rastaetter, L.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Ngwira, C. M.

2017-12-01

During extreme space weather events electric currents in the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere experience large variations, which leads to dramatic intensification of the fluctuating magnetic field at the surface of the Earth. According to Faraday's law of induction, the fluctuating geomagnetic field in turn induces electric field that generates harmful currents (so-called "geomagnetically induced currents"; GICs) in grounded technological systems. Understanding (via modeling) of the spatio-temporal evolution of the geoelectric field during enhanced geomagnetic activity is a key consideration in estimating the hazard to technological systems from space weather. We present the results of ground geoelectric field modeling for the Northeast United States, which is performed with the use of our novel numerical tool based on integral equation approach. The tool exploits realistic regional three-dimensional (3-D) models of the Earth's electrical conductivity and realistic global models of the spatio-temporal evolution of the magnetospheric and ionospheric current systems responsible for geomagnetic disturbances. We also explore in detail the manifestation of the coastal effect (anomalous intensification of the geoelectric field near the coasts) in this region.

Modelling the Evolution of Sea Spray Droplets on a Global Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staniec, A.; Vlahos, P.; Monahan, E. C.

2017-12-01

Sea spray droplets are an important mechanism for the transport of moisture, heat, and organic material between the ocean and the atmosphere. Spume droplets are the largest of the size spectrum and as such have the potential to transport significant amounts of energy and gases despite their generally short residence time in the atmosphere. A model is developed based on the physical parameterizations from Andreas et al. (1995, 2005)and a range of spume generation functions, coupled with a biogeochemical exchange model for gases developed here to examine the equilibrium temperature and gas exchange of spume droplets under representative open ocean conditions. The modelling approach uses micro-physics to simulate the expected changes to the droplet as it equilibrates with the atmospheric temperature and relative humidity. The effect of temperature differentials and relative humidity variations is explored. A global approach is simulated by using average summer and winter values for SST, salinity, and air temperature throughout the various ocean basins.

Probing the dynamics of dark energy with divergence-free parametrizations: A global fit study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hong; Zhang, Xin

2011-09-01

The CPL parametrization is very important for investigating the property of dark energy with observational data. However, the CPL parametrization only respects the past evolution of dark energy but does not care about the future evolution of dark energy, since w ( z ) diverges in the distant future. In a recent paper [J.Z. Ma, X. Zhang, Phys. Lett. B 699 (2011) 233], a robust, novel parametrization for dark energy, w ( z ) = w + w ( l n ( 2 + z ) 1 + z - l n 2 ) , has been proposed, successfully avoiding the future divergence problem in the CPL parametrization. On the other hand, an oscillating parametrization (motivated by an oscillating quintom model) can also avoid the future divergence problem. In this Letter, we use the two divergence-free parametrizations to probe the dynamics of dark energy in the whole evolutionary history. In light of the data from 7-year WMAP temperature and polarization power spectra, matter power spectrum of SDSS DR7, and SN Ia Union2 sample, we perform a full Markov Chain Monte Carlo exploration for the two dynamical dark energy models. We find that the best-fit dark energy model is a quintom model with the EOS across -1 during the evolution. However, though the quintom model is more favored, we find that the cosmological constant still cannot be excluded.

Global Analysis of the Evolution and Mechanism of Echinocandin Resistance in Candida glabrata

PubMed Central

Singh-Babak, Sheena D.; Babak, Tomas; Diezmann, Stephanie; Hill, Jessica A.; Xie, Jinglin Lucy; Chen, Ying-Lien; Poutanen, Susan M.; Rennie, Robert P.; Heitman, Joseph; Cowen, Leah E.

2012-01-01

The evolution of drug resistance has a profound impact on human health. Candida glabrata is a leading human fungal pathogen that can rapidly evolve resistance to echinocandins, which target cell wall biosynthesis and are front-line therapeutics for Candida infections. Here, we provide the first global analysis of mutations accompanying the evolution of fungal drug resistance in a human host utilizing a series of C. glabrata isolates that evolved echinocandin resistance in a patient treated with the echinocandin caspofungin for recurring bloodstream candidemia. Whole genome sequencing identified a mutation in the drug target, FKS2, accompanying a major resistance increase, and 8 additional non-synonymous mutations. The FKS2-T1987C mutation was sufficient for echinocandin resistance, and associated with a fitness cost that was mitigated with further evolution, observed in vitro and in a murine model of systemic candidemia. A CDC6-A511G(K171E) mutation acquired before FKS2-T1987C(S663P), conferred a small resistance increase. Elevated dosage of CDC55, which acquired a C463T(P155S) mutation after FKS2-T1987C(S663P), ameliorated fitness. To discover strategies to abrogate echinocandin resistance, we focused on the molecular chaperone Hsp90 and downstream effector calcineurin. Genetic or pharmacological compromise of Hsp90 or calcineurin function reduced basal tolerance and resistance. Hsp90 and calcineurin were required for caspofungin-dependent FKS2 induction, providing a mechanism governing echinocandin resistance. A mitochondrial respiration-defective petite mutant in the series revealed that the petite phenotype does not confer echinocandin resistance, but renders strains refractory to synergy between echinocandins and Hsp90 or calcineurin inhibitors. The kidneys of mice infected with the petite mutant were sterile, while those infected with the HSP90-repressible strain had reduced fungal burden. We provide the first global view of mutations accompanying the evolution of fungal drug resistance in a human host, implicate the premier compensatory mutation mitigating the cost of echinocandin resistance, and suggest a new mechanism of echinocandin resistance with broad therapeutic potential. PMID:22615574

The Evolution of Integrated Assessment and Emerging Challenges in the Assessment of Human and Natural System Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, L.

2017-12-01

Integrated assessment (IA) modeling and research has a long history, spanning over 30 years since its inception and addressing a wide range of contemporary issues along the way. Over the last decade, IA modeling and research has emerged as one of the primary analytical methods for understanding the complex interactions between human and natural systems, from the interactions between energy, water, and land/food systems to the interplay between health, climate, and air pollution. IA modeling and research is particularly well-suited for the analysis of these interactions because it is a discipline that strives to integrate representations of multiple systems into consistent computational platforms or frameworks. In doing so, it explicitly confronts the many tradeoffs that are frequently necessary to manage complexity and computational cost while still representing the most important interactions and overall, coupled system behavior. This talk explores the history of IA modeling and research as a means to better understand its role in the assessment of contemporary issues at the confluence of human and natural systems. It traces the evolution of IA modeling and research from initial exploration of long-term emissions pathways, to the role of technology in the global evolution of the energy system, to the key linkages between land and energy systems and, more recently, the linkages with water, air pollution, and other key systems and issues. It discusses the advances in modeling that have emerged over this evolution and the biggest challenges that still present themselves as we strive to better understand the most important interactions between human and natural systems and the implications of these interactions for human welfare and decision making.

Greenland ice sheet beyond 2100: Simulating its evolution and influence using the coupled climate-ice sheet model EC-Earth - PISM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, S.; Christensen, J. H.; Madsen, M. S.; Ringgaard, I. M.; Petersen, R. A.; Langen, P. P.

2017-12-01

Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is observed undergoing a rapid change in the recent decades, with an increasing area of surface melting and ablation and a speeding mass loss. Predicting the GrIS changes and their climate consequences relies on the understanding of the interaction of the GrIS with the climate system on both global and local scales, and requires climate model systems incorporating with an explicit and physically consistent ice sheet module. In this work we study the GrIS evolution and its interaction with the climate system using a fully coupled global climate model with a dynamical ice sheet model for the GrIS. The coupled model system, EC-EARTH - PISM, consisting of the atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model system EC-EARTH, and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), has been employed for a 1400-year simulation forced by CMIP5 historical forcing from 1850 to 2005 and continued along an extended RCP8.5 scenario with the forcing peaking at 2200 and stabilized hereafter. The simulation reveals that, following the anthropogenic forcing increase, the global mean surface temperature rapidly rises about 10 °C in the 21st and 22nd century. After the forcing stops increasing after 2200, the temperature change slows down and eventually stabilizes at about 12.5 °C above the preindustrial level. In response to the climate warming, the GrIS starts losing mass slowly in the 21st century, but the ice retreat accelerates substantially after 2100 and ice mass loss continues hereafter at a constant rate of approximately 0.5 m sea level rise equivalence per 100 years, even as the warming rate gradually levels off. Ultimately the volume and extent of GrIS reduce to less than half of its preindustrial value. To understand the interaction of GrIS with the climate system, the characteristics of atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the warm climate are analyzed. The circulation patterns associated with the negative surface mass balance that leads to GrIS retreat are investigated. The impact of the simulated surface warming on the ice flow and ice dynamics is explored.

Development and analysis of a 12-year daily 1-km forest fire dataset across North America from NOAA/AVHRR

Treesearch

Ruiliang Pu; Zhanqing Li; Peng Gong; Ivan Csiszar; Robert Fraser; Wei-Min Hao; Shobha Kondragunta; Fuzhong Weng

2007-01-01

Fires in boreal and temperate forests play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. While forest fires in North America (NA) have been surveyed extensively by U.S. and Canadian forest services, most fire records are limited to seasonal statistics without information on temporal evolution and spatial expansion. Such dynamic information is crucial for modeling fire...

Space-Time Variations in Water Vapor as Observed by the UARS Microwave Limb Sounder

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elson, Lee S.; Read, William G.; Waters, Joe W.; Mote, Philip W.; Kinnersley, Jonathan S.; Harwood, Robert S.

1996-01-01

Water vapor in the upper troposphere has a significant impact on the climate system. Difficulties in making accurate global measurements have led to uncertainty in understanding water vapor's coupling to the hydrologic cycle in the lower troposphere and its role in radiative energy balance. The Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite is able to retrieve water vapor concentration in the upper troposphere with good sensitivity and nearly global coverage. An analysis of these preliminary retrievals based on 3 years of observations shows the water vapor distribution to be similar to that measured by other techniques and to model results. The primary MLS water vapor measurements were made in the stratosphere, where this species acts as a conserved tracer under certain conditions. As is the case for the upper troposphere, most of the stratospheric discussion focuses on the time evolution of the zonal mean and zonally varying water vapor. Stratospheric results span a 19-month period and tropospheric results a 36-month period, both beginning in October of 1991. Comparisons with stratospheric model calculations show general agreement, with some differences in the amplitude and phase of long-term variations. At certain times and places, the evolution of water vapor distributions in the lower stratosphere suggests the presence of meridional transport.

Climate change in the oceans: evolutionary versus phenotypically plastic responses of marine animals and plants

PubMed Central

Reusch, Thorsten B H

2014-01-01

I summarize marine studies on plastic versus adaptive responses to global change. Due to the lack of time series, this review focuses largely on the potential for adaptive evolution in marine animals and plants. The approaches were mainly synchronic comparisons of phenotypically divergent populations, substituting spatial contrasts in temperature or CO2 environments for temporal changes, or in assessments of adaptive genetic diversity within populations for traits important under global change. The available literature is biased towards gastropods, crustaceans, cnidarians and macroalgae. Focal traits were mostly environmental tolerances, which correspond to phenotypic buffering, a plasticity type that maintains a functional phenotype despite external disturbance. Almost all studies address coastal species that are already today exposed to fluctuations in temperature, pH and oxygen levels. Recommendations for future research include (i) initiation and analyses of observational and experimental temporal studies encompassing diverse phenotypic traits (including diapausing cues, dispersal traits, reproductive timing, morphology) (ii) quantification of nongenetic trans-generational effects along with components of additive genetic variance (iii) adaptive changes in microbe–host associations under the holobiont model in response to global change (iv) evolution of plasticity patterns under increasingly fluctuating environments and extreme conditions and (v) joint consideration of demography and evolutionary adaptation in evolutionary rescue approaches. PMID:24454551

Spatio-temporal variation in fitness responses to contrasting environments in Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Exposito-Alonso, Moises; Brennan, Adrian C; Alonso-Blanco, Carlos; Picó, F Xavier

2018-06-27

The evolutionary response of organisms to global climate change is expected to be strongly conditioned by preexisting standing genetic variation. In addition, natural selection imposed by global climate change on fitness-related traits can be heterogeneous over time. We estimated selection of life-history traits of an entire genetic lineage of the plant Arabidopsis thaliana occurring in north-western Iberian Peninsula that were transplanted over multiple years into two environmentally contrasting field sites in southern Spain, as southern environments are expected to move progressively northwards with climate change in the Iberian Peninsula. The results indicated that natural selection on flowering time prevailed over that on recruitment. Selection favored early flowering in six of eight experiments and late flowering in the other two. Such heterogeneity of selection for flowering time might be a powerful mechanism for maintaining genetic diversity in the long run. We also found that north-western A. thaliana accessions from warmer environments exhibited higher fitness and higher phenotypic plasticity for flowering time in southern experimental facilities. Overall, our transplant experiments suggested that north-western Iberian A. thaliana has the means to cope with increasingly warmer environments in the region as predicted by trends in global climate change models. © 2018 The Author(s). Evolution © 2018 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Arctic Sea Ice in a 1.5°C Warmer World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niederdrenk, Anne Laura; Notz, Dirk

2018-02-01

We examine the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea ice in scenarios with limited future global warming. To do so, we analyze two sets of observational records that cover the observational uncertainty of Arctic sea ice loss per degree of global warming. The observations are combined with 100 simulations of historical and future climate evolution from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model Grand Ensemble. Based on the high-sensitivity observations, we find that Arctic September sea ice is lost with low probability (P≈ 10%) for global warming of +1.5°C above preindustrial levels and with very high probability (P> 99%) for global warming of +2°C above preindustrial levels. For the low-sensitivity observations, September sea ice is extremely unlikely to disappear for +1.5°C warming (P≪ 1%) and has low likelihood (P≈ 10%) to disappear even for +2°C global warming. For March, both observational records suggest a loss of 15% to 20% of Arctic sea ice area for 1.5°C to 2°C global warming.

A View of Hurricane Katrina with Early 2lSt Century Technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Xin; Li, J.-L.; Suarez, M. J.; Tompkins, A. M.; Waliser, D. E.; Rienecker, M. M.; Bacmeister, J.; Jiang, J.; Wu, H.-T.; Tassone, C. M.

2006-01-01

Recent advances in space-borne observations and numerical weather prediction models provide new opportunities for improving hurricane forecasts. In this study, state-of-the-art satellite observations are used to document the evolution of one of the most devastating tropical cyclones ever to hit the United States: Hurricane Katrina. The ECMWF and NASA global high-resolution forecasts, the latter being run in experimental mode, are compared with satellite observations, with a focus on precipitation and cloud processes. Future directions on modeling and observations are briefly discussed.

Fortresses and Icebergs: The Evolution of the Transatlantic Defense Market and the Implications for U.S. National Security Policy. Volume 1: Study Findings and Recommendations

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

The United States needs a new model of “globalized” national security for this changing world: we must realign longstanding policies away from go...at the center of our approach to ensuring our future security. … Now, when we most need to re-examine our Transatlantic security model, this new two...address the globalized threats we face, our gov- ernment is already reorienting the capabilities of our national security forces to a new bal- ance

Local and global bifurcations in an economic growth model with endogenous labour supply and multiplicative external habits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gori, Luca; Sodini, Mauro

2014-03-01

This paper analyses the mathematical properties of an economic growth model with overlapping generations, endogenous labour supply, and multiplicative external habits. The dynamics of the economy is characterised by a two-dimensional map describing the time evolution of capital and labour supply. We show that if the relative importance of external habits in the utility function is sufficiently high, multiple (determinate or indeterminate) fixed points and poverty traps can exist. In addition, periodic or quasiperiodic behaviour and/or coexistence of attractors may occur.

The ecological origins of snakes as revealed by skull evolution.

PubMed

Da Silva, Filipe O; Fabre, Anne-Claire; Savriama, Yoland; Ollonen, Joni; Mahlow, Kristin; Herrel, Anthony; Müller, Johannes; Di-Poï, Nicolas

2018-01-25

The ecological origin of snakes remains amongst the most controversial topics in evolution, with three competing hypotheses: fossorial; marine; or terrestrial. Here we use a geometric morphometric approach integrating ecological, phylogenetic, paleontological, and developmental data for building models of skull shape and size evolution and developmental rate changes in squamates. Our large-scale data reveal that whereas the most recent common ancestor of crown snakes had a small skull with a shape undeniably adapted for fossoriality, all snakes plus their sister group derive from a surface-terrestrial form with non-fossorial behavior, thus redirecting the debate toward an underexplored evolutionary scenario. Our comprehensive heterochrony analyses further indicate that snakes later evolved novel craniofacial specializations through global acceleration of skull development. These results highlight the importance of the interplay between natural selection and developmental processes in snake origin and diversification, leading first to invasion of a new habitat and then to subsequent ecological radiations.

Locomotion in response to shifting climate zones: not so fast.

PubMed

Feder, Martin E; Garland, Theodore; Marden, James H; Zera, Anthony J

2010-01-01

Although a species' locomotor capacity is suggestive of its ability to escape global climate change, such a suggestion is not necessarily straightforward. Species vary substantially in locomotor capacity, both ontogenetically and within/among populations, and much of this variation has a genetic basis. Accordingly, locomotor capacity can and does evolve rapidly, as selection experiments demonstrate. Importantly, even though this evolution of locomotor capacity may be rapid enough to escape changing climate, genetic correlations among traits (often due to pleiotropy) are such that successful or rapid dispersers are often limited in colonization or reproductive ability, which may be viewed as a trade-off. The nuanced assessment of this variation and evolution is reviewed for well-studied models: salmon, flying versus flightless insects, rodents undergoing experimental evolution, and metapopulations of butterflies. This work reveals how integration of physiology with population biology and functional genomics can be especially informative.

[Origin and evolution of canine parvovirus--a review].

PubMed

Zhao, Jianjun; Yan, Xijun; Wu, Wei

2011-07-01

Canine parvovirus (CPV-2), first recognized in 1978 as a new pathogen of dogs, was probably derived from a very closely related virus in cats, feline panleukopaenia virus (FPLV) or a closely related carnivore parvovirus (FPLV-like virus). CPV-2 is responsible for either myocarditis or fatal gastroenteritis in pups with high morbidity and mortality. Shortly after its emergence, CPV-2 has become endemic in the global dog population. The original CPV-2 continued to evolve, and was subsequently replaced by three different but closely related antigenic variants, designated CPV-2a, CPV-2b and CPV-2c, which now coexist in dog populations worldwide. The genetic and antigenic variation in CPV-2 also correlated with changes in the host range and tissue tropisms of the virus. Here, we reviewed variation and evolution of CPV-2 in past 30 years and discussed CPV-2 as an important model to study virus evolution.

No way out? The double-bind in seeking global prosperity alongside mitigated climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrett, T. J.

2012-01-01

In a prior study (Garrett, 2011), I introduced a simple economic growth model designed to be consistent with general thermodynamic laws. Unlike traditional economic models, civilization is viewed only as a well-mixed global whole with no distinction made between individual nations, economic sectors, labor, or capital investments. At the model core is a hypothesis that the global economy's current rate of primary energy consumption is tied through a constant to a very general representation of its historically accumulated wealth. Observations support this hypothesis, and indicate that the constant's value is λ = 9.7 ± 0.3 milliwatts per 1990 US dollar. It is this link that allows for treatment of seemingly complex economic systems as simple physical systems. Here, this growth model is coupled to a linear formulation for the evolution of globally well-mixed atmospheric CO2 concentrations. While very simple, the coupled model provides faithful multi-decadal hindcasts of trajectories in gross world product (GWP) and CO2. Extending the model to the future, the model suggests that the well-known IPCC SRES scenarios substantially underestimate how much CO2 levels will rise for a given level of future economic prosperity. For one, global CO2 emission rates cannot be decoupled from wealth through efficiency gains. For another, like a long-term natural disaster, future greenhouse warming can be expected to act as an inflationary drag on the real growth of global wealth. For atmospheric CO2 concentrations to remain below a "dangerous" level of 450 ppmv (Hansen et al., 2007), model forecasts suggest that there will have to be some combination of an unrealistically rapid rate of energy decarbonization and nearly immediate reductions in global civilization wealth. Effectively, it appears that civilization may be in a double-bind. If civilization does not collapse quickly this century, then CO2 levels will likely end up exceeding 1000 ppmv; but, if CO2 levels rise by this much, then the risk is that civilization will gradually tend towards collapse.

Neutral evolution of proteins: The superfunnel in sequence space and its relation to mutational robustness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noirel, Josselin; Simonson, Thomas

2008-11-01

Following Kimura's neutral theory of molecular evolution [M. Kimura, The Neutral Theory of Molecular Evolution (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1983) (reprinted in 1986)], it has become common to assume that the vast majority of viable mutations of a gene confer little or no functional advantage. Yet, in silico models of protein evolution have shown that mutational robustness of sequences could be selected for, even in the context of neutral evolution. The evolution of a biological population can be seen as a diffusion on the network of viable sequences. This network is called a "neutral network." Depending on the mutation rate μ and the population size N, the biological population can evolve purely randomly (μN ≪1) or it can evolve in such a way as to select for sequences of higher mutational robustness (μN ≫1). The stringency of the selection depends not only on the product μN but also on the exact topology of the neutral network, the special arrangement of which was named "superfunnel." Even though the relation between mutation rate, population size, and selection was thoroughly investigated, a study of the salient topological features of the superfunnel that could affect the strength of the selection was wanting. This question is addressed in this study. We use two different models of proteins: on lattice and off lattice. We compare neutral networks computed using these models to random networks. From this, we identify two important factors of the topology that determine the stringency of the selection for mutationally robust sequences. First, the presence of highly connected nodes ("hubs") in the network increases the selection for mutationally robust sequences. Second, the stringency of the selection increases when the correlation between a sequence's mutational robustness and its neighbors' increases. The latter finding relates a global characteristic of the neutral network to a local one, which is attainable through experiments or molecular modeling.

Neutral evolution of proteins: The superfunnel in sequence space and its relation to mutational robustness.

PubMed

Noirel, Josselin; Simonson, Thomas

2008-11-14

Following Kimura's neutral theory of molecular evolution [M. Kimura, The Neutral Theory of Molecular Evolution (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1983) (reprinted in 1986)], it has become common to assume that the vast majority of viable mutations of a gene confer little or no functional advantage. Yet, in silico models of protein evolution have shown that mutational robustness of sequences could be selected for, even in the context of neutral evolution. The evolution of a biological population can be seen as a diffusion on the network of viable sequences. This network is called a "neutral network." Depending on the mutation rate mu and the population size N, the biological population can evolve purely randomly (muN<1) or it can evolve in such a way as to select for sequences of higher mutational robustness (muN>1). The stringency of the selection depends not only on the product muN but also on the exact topology of the neutral network, the special arrangement of which was named "superfunnel." Even though the relation between mutation rate, population size, and selection was thoroughly investigated, a study of the salient topological features of the superfunnel that could affect the strength of the selection was wanting. This question is addressed in this study. We use two different models of proteins: on lattice and off lattice. We compare neutral networks computed using these models to random networks. From this, we identify two important factors of the topology that determine the stringency of the selection for mutationally robust sequences. First, the presence of highly connected nodes ("hubs") in the network increases the selection for mutationally robust sequences. Second, the stringency of the selection increases when the correlation between a sequence's mutational robustness and its neighbors' increases. The latter finding relates a global characteristic of the neutral network to a local one, which is attainable through experiments or molecular modeling.

The Habitability of a Stagnant-Lid Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tosi, N.; Godolt, M.; Stracke, B.; Ruedas, T.; Grenfell, L.; Höning, D.; Nikolaou, A.; Plesa, A. C.; Breuer, D.; Spohn, T.

2017-12-01

Plate tectonics is a fundamental component for the habitability of the Earth. Yet whether it is a recurrent feature of terrestrial bodies orbiting other stars or unique to the Earth is unknown. The stagnant lid may rather be the most common tectonic expression on such bodies. To understand whether a stagnant-lid planet can be habitable, i.e. host liquid water at its surface, we model the thermal evolution of the mantle, volcanic outgassing of H2O and CO2, and resulting climate of an Earth-like planet lacking plate tectonics. We used a 1D model of parameterized convection to simulate the evolution of melt generation and the build-up of an atmosphere of H2O and CO2 over 4.5 Gyr. We then employed a 1D radiative-convective atmosphere model to calculate the global mean atmospheric temperature and the boundaries of the habitable zone (HZ). The evolution of the interior is characterized by the initial production of a large amount of partial melt accompanied by a rapid outgassing of H2O and CO2. At 1 au, the obtained temperatures generally allow for liquid water on the surface nearly over the entire evolution. While the outer edge of the HZ is mostly influenced by the amount of outgassed CO2, the inner edge presents a more complex behaviour that is dependent on the partial pressures of both gases. At 1 au, the stagnant-lid planet considered would be regarded as habitable. The width of the HZ at the end of the evolution, albeit influenced by the amount of outgassed CO2, can vary in a non-monotonic way depending on the extent of the outgassed H2O reservoir. Our results suggest that stagnant-lid planets can be habitable over geological timescales and that joint modelling of interior evolution, volcanic outgassing, and accompanying climate is necessary to robustly characterize planetary habitability.

Biological evolution of replicator systems: towards a quantitative approach.

PubMed

Martin, Osmel; Horvath, J E

2013-04-01

The aim of this work is to study the features of a simple replicator chemical model of the relation between kinetic stability and entropy production under the action of external perturbations. We quantitatively explore the different paths leading to evolution in a toy model where two independent replicators compete for the same substrate. To do that, the same scenario described originally by Pross (J Phys Org Chem 17:312-316, 2004) is revised and new criteria to define the kinetic stability are proposed. Our results suggest that fast replicator populations are continually favored by the effects of strong stochastic environmental fluctuations capable to determine the global population, the former assumed to be the only acting evolution force. We demonstrate that the process is continually driven by strong perturbations only, and that population crashes may be useful proxies for these catastrophic environmental fluctuations. As expected, such behavior is particularly enhanced under very large scale perturbations, suggesting a likely dynamical footprint in the recovery patterns of new species after mass extinction events in the Earth's geological past. Furthermore, the hypothesis that natural selection always favors the faster processes may give theoretical support to different studies that claim the applicability of maximum principles like the Maximum Metabolic Flux (MMF) or Maximum Entropy Productions Principle (MEPP), seen as the main goal of biological evolution.

Biological Evolution of Replicator Systems: Towards a Quantitative Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Osmel; Horvath, J. E.

2013-04-01

The aim of this work is to study the features of a simple replicator chemical model of the relation between kinetic stability and entropy production under the action of external perturbations. We quantitatively explore the different paths leading to evolution in a toy model where two independent replicators compete for the same substrate. To do that, the same scenario described originally by Pross (J Phys Org Chem 17:312-316, 2004) is revised and new criteria to define the kinetic stability are proposed. Our results suggest that fast replicator populations are continually favored by the effects of strong stochastic environmental fluctuations capable to determine the global population, the former assumed to be the only acting evolution force. We demonstrate that the process is continually driven by strong perturbations only, and that population crashes may be useful proxies for these catastrophic environmental fluctuations. As expected, such behavior is particularly enhanced under very large scale perturbations, suggesting a likely dynamical footprint in the recovery patterns of new species after mass extinction events in the Earth's geological past. Furthermore, the hypothesis that natural selection always favors the faster processes may give theoretical support to different studies that claim the applicability of maximum principles like the Maximum Metabolic Flux (MMF) or Maximum Entropy Productions Principle (MEPP), seen as the main goal of biological evolution.

Taiwan High School Biology Teachers' Acceptance and Understanding of Evolution and the Nature of Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Li-Hua

2015-01-01

Evolution is the cornerstone of biological sciences, but anti-evolution teaching has become a global controversy since the introduction of evolutionary ideas into the United States high school science curricula in 1914. It is suggested that teachers' attitude toward and acceptance of the theory of evolution will influence their effect of teaching…

Evolutions of fluctuation modes and inner structures of global stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Yan; Wang, Lei; Liu, Maoxin; Chen, Xiaosong

2016-09-01

The paper uses empirical data, including 42 globally main stock indices in the period 1996-2014, to systematically study the evolution of fluctuation modes and inner structures of global stock markets. The data are large in scale considering both time and space. A covariance matrix-based principle fluctuation mode analysis (PFMA) is used to explore the properties of the global stock markets. It has been ignored by previous studies that covariance matrix is more suitable than the correlation matrix to be the basis of PFMA. It is found that the principle fluctuation modes of global stock markets are in the same directions, and global stock markets are divided into three clusters, which are found to be closely related to the countries’ locations with exceptions of China, Russia and Czech Republic. A time-stable correlation network constructing method is proposed to solve the problem of high-level statistical uncertainty when the estimated periods are very short, and the complex dynamic network (CDN) is constructed to investigate the evolution of inner structures. The results show when the clusters emerge and how long the clusters exist. When the 2008 financial crisis broke out, the indices form one cluster. After these crises, only the European cluster still exists. These findings complement the previous studies, and can help investors and regulators to understand the global stock markets.

Evolution of surface sensible heat over the Tibetan Plateau under the recent global warming hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Lihua; Huang, Gang; Fan, Guangzhou; Qu, Xia; Zhao, Guijie; Hua, Wei

2017-10-01

Based on regular surface meteorological observations and NCEP/DOE reanalysis data, this study investigates the evolution of surface sensible heat (SH) over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau (CE-TP) under the recent global warming hiatus. The results reveal that the SH over the CE-TP presents a recovery since the slowdown of the global warming. The restored surface wind speed together with increased difference in ground-air temperature contribute to the recovery in SH. During the global warming hiatus, the persistent weakening wind speed is alleviated due to the variation of the meridional temperature gradient. Meanwhile, the ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature show a significant increasing trend in that period caused by the increased total cloud amount, especially at night. At nighttime, the increased total cloud cover reduces the surface effective radiation via a strengthening of atmospheric counter radiation and subsequently brings about a clear upward trend in ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature. Cloud-radiation feedback plays a significant role in the evolution of the surface temperature and even SH during the global warming hiatus. Consequently, besides the surface wind speed, the difference in ground-air temperature becomes another significant factor for the variation in SH since the slowdown of global warming, particularly at night.

Global magnetic field modelling with archeomagnetic and historical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senftleben, Robin; Korte, Monika; Finlay, Chris

2016-04-01

Global geomagnetic field models on different time scales are useful tools to study the field evolution and gain insights into underlying processes in the Earth's outer core. However, historical full vector field data are only available from 1840 on, and millennial scale field models based on archeo- and paleomagnetic data have, in general, rather low temporal and spatial resolution. This study complements the high resolution data of historical sources with archeomagnetic data in order to expand the time range back to 1000 AD and add total magnetic field informations in the times from 1590 AD to 1840 AD. This makes it possible to constrain the axial dipole moment with actual observations unlike the gufm1 model, which does so through linear extrapolation (Jackson et al. 2000). The resulting model is compared against new paleomagnetic data from the island Fogo of Cap Verde. The age of the sampled volcanic flows spans between 1600 AD and 1900 AD. The final objective of this study is to use this model to uncover details of the decaying behaviour of the dipole moment and the development of the South Atlantic Anomaly.

The tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

2016-09-01

Global mean surface temperature change over the past 120 years resembles a rising staircase: the overall warming trend was interrupted by the mid-twentieth-century big hiatus and the warming slowdown since about 1998. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation has been implicated in modulations of global mean surface temperatures, but which part of the mode drives the variability in warming rates is unclear. Here we present a successful simulation of the global warming staircase since 1900 with a global ocean-atmosphere coupled model where tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are forced to follow the observed evolution. Without prescribed tropical Pacific variability, the same model, on average, produces a continual warming trend that accelerates after the 1960s. We identify four events where the tropical Pacific decadal cooling markedly slowed down the warming trend. Matching the observed spatial and seasonal fingerprints we identify the tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the warming staircase, with radiative forcing driving the overall warming trend. Specifically, tropical Pacific variability amplifies the first warming epoch of the 1910s-1940s and determines the timing when the big hiatus starts and ends. Our method of removing internal variability from the observed record can be used for real-time monitoring of anthropogenic warming.

Present-Day Mars' Seismicity Predicted From 3-D Thermal Evolution Models of Interior Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plesa, A.-C.; Knapmeyer, M.; Golombek, M. P.; Breuer, D.; Grott, M.; Kawamura, T.; Lognonné, P.; Tosi, N.; Weber, R. C.

2018-03-01

The Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport mission, to be launched in 2018, will perform a comprehensive geophysical investigation of Mars in situ. The Seismic Experiment for Interior Structure package aims to detect global and regional seismic events and in turn offer constraints on core size, crustal thickness, and core, mantle, and crustal composition. In this study, we estimate the present-day amount and distribution of seismicity using 3-D numerical thermal evolution models of Mars, taking into account contributions from convective stresses as well as from stresses associated with cooling and planetary contraction. Defining the seismogenic lithosphere by an isotherm and assuming two end-member cases of 573 K and the 1073 K, we determine the seismogenic lithosphere thickness. Assuming a seismic efficiency between 0.025 and 1, this thickness is used to estimate the total annual seismic moment budget, and our models show values between 5.7 × 1016 and 3.9 × 1019 Nm.

Topology of molecular interaction networks.

PubMed

Winterbach, Wynand; Van Mieghem, Piet; Reinders, Marcel; Wang, Huijuan; de Ridder, Dick

2013-09-16

Molecular interactions are often represented as network models which have become the common language of many areas of biology. Graphs serve as convenient mathematical representations of network models and have themselves become objects of study. Their topology has been intensively researched over the last decade after evidence was found that they share underlying design principles with many other types of networks.Initial studies suggested that molecular interaction network topology is related to biological function and evolution. However, further whole-network analyses did not lead to a unified view on what this relation may look like, with conclusions highly dependent on the type of molecular interactions considered and the metrics used to study them. It is unclear whether global network topology drives function, as suggested by some researchers, or whether it is simply a byproduct of evolution or even an artefact of representing complex molecular interaction networks as graphs.Nevertheless, network biology has progressed significantly over the last years. We review the literature, focusing on two major developments. First, realizing that molecular interaction networks can be naturally decomposed into subsystems (such as modules and pathways), topology is increasingly studied locally rather than globally. Second, there is a move from a descriptive approach to a predictive one: rather than correlating biological network topology to generic properties such as robustness, it is used to predict specific functions or phenotypes.Taken together, this change in focus from globally descriptive to locally predictive points to new avenues of research. In particular, multi-scale approaches are developments promising to drive the study of molecular interaction networks further.

Topology of molecular interaction networks

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Molecular interactions are often represented as network models which have become the common language of many areas of biology. Graphs serve as convenient mathematical representations of network models and have themselves become objects of study. Their topology has been intensively researched over the last decade after evidence was found that they share underlying design principles with many other types of networks. Initial studies suggested that molecular interaction network topology is related to biological function and evolution. However, further whole-network analyses did not lead to a unified view on what this relation may look like, with conclusions highly dependent on the type of molecular interactions considered and the metrics used to study them. It is unclear whether global network topology drives function, as suggested by some researchers, or whether it is simply a byproduct of evolution or even an artefact of representing complex molecular interaction networks as graphs. Nevertheless, network biology has progressed significantly over the last years. We review the literature, focusing on two major developments. First, realizing that molecular interaction networks can be naturally decomposed into subsystems (such as modules and pathways), topology is increasingly studied locally rather than globally. Second, there is a move from a descriptive approach to a predictive one: rather than correlating biological network topology to generic properties such as robustness, it is used to predict specific functions or phenotypes. Taken together, this change in focus from globally descriptive to locally predictive points to new avenues of research. In particular, multi-scale approaches are developments promising to drive the study of molecular interaction networks further. PMID:24041013

Impact of the volume of rooms on shock wave propagation within a multi-chamber system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Julien, B.; Sochet, I.; Vaillant, T.

2016-03-01

The behavior of a shock wave generated by a hemispherical gaseous charge and propagating within a confined multi-chamber system is analyzed through the evolution of some of the shock parameters (maximum overpressure and positive impulse). The influence of a variation in the volume of the rooms on the pressure history inside the building is also studied. Several small-scale experiments have been carried out using an adjustable model representative of a pyrotechnic workshop. The experimental results show that the pressure histories are very complex. Yet, using a global approach, we were able to link the evolution of the arrival time of the shock wave within the building with the reference obtained in the free field. New parameters were developed to best fit the experimental maximal overpressure in the cells and in the corridor leading to two predictive laws used to estimate the maximal overpressure in the model.

Constructing and Monitoring the Infrared SED of the First Known Recent Stellar Merger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCollum, Bruce; Laine, Seppo; Bruhweiler, Frederick; Rottler, Lee

2012-12-01

Stellar mergers have long been thought to be astrophysically important to the evolution and global properties of dense stellar aggregates and even open clusters. However, the study of this phenomenon has until now been severely impeded by the lack of any definite, recent merger with which to compare models. It was recently realized that a 2008 nova was in fact a contact binary which erupted when the two stars finally merged. We have obtained post-merger infrared observations which show a large IR excess and a nonstellar SED which have changed subsantially over time, and near-IR emission lines from shocked material. This object is an important opportunity to learn about the nature and time evolution of recent merger products, and to assemble a unique data set which will be used for many years as a basis for modeling stellar mergers.

Aerosol Processing in Mixed-Phase Clouds in ECHAM5-HAM: Comparison of Single-Column Model Simulations to Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoose, C.; Lohmann, U.; Stier, P.; Verheggen, B.; Weingartner, E.; Herich, H.

2007-12-01

The global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM (Stier et al., 2005) has been extended by an explicit treatment of cloud-borne particles. Two additional modes for in-droplet and in-crystal particles are introduced, which are coupled to the number of cloud droplet and ice crystal concentrations simulated by the ECHAM5 double-moment cloud microphysics scheme (Lohmann et al., 2007). Transfer, production and removal of cloud-borne aerosol number and mass by cloud droplet activation, collision scavenging, aqueous-phase sulfate production, freezing, melting, evaporation, sublimation and precipitation formation are taken into account. The model performance is demonstrated and validated with observations of the evolution of total and interstitial aerosol concentrations and size distributions during three different mixed-phase cloud events at the alpine high-altitude research station Jungfraujoch (Switzerland) (Verheggen et al, 2007). Although the single-column simulations can not be compared one-to-one with the observations, the governing processes in the evolution of the cloud and aerosol parameters are captured qualitatively well. High scavenged fractions are found during the presence of liquid water, while the release of particles during the Bergeron-Findeisen process results in low scavenged fractions after cloud glaciation. The observed coexistence of liquid and ice, which might be related to cloud heterogeneity at subgrid scales, can only be simulated in the model when forcing non-equilibrium conditions. References: U. Lohmann et al., Cloud microphysics and aerosol indirect effects in the global climate model ECHAM5-HAM, Atmos. Chem. Phys. 7, 3425-3446 (2007) P. Stier et al., The aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM, Atmos. Chem. Phys. 5, 1125-1156 (2005) B. Verheggen et al., Aerosol partitioning between the interstitial and the condensed phase in mixed-phase clouds, Accepted for publication in J. Geophys. Res. (2007)

Why the predictions for monsoon rainfall fail?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.

2016-12-01

To be in line with the Global Land/Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) international research scheme, this study discusses classical arguments about the feedback mechanisms between land surface and precipitation to improve the predictions of African monsoon rainfall. In order to clarify the impact of antecedent soil moisture on subsequent rainfall evolution, several data sets will be presented. First, in-situ soil moisture field measurements acquired by the AMMA field campaign will be shown together with rain gauge data. This data set will validate various model and satellite data sets such as NOAH land surface model, TRMM rainfall, CMORPH rainfall and HadGEM climate models, SMOS soil moisture. To relate soil moisture with precipitation, two approaches are employed: one approach makes a direct comparison between the spatial distributions of soil moisture as an absolute value and rainfall, while the other measures a temporal evolution of the consecutive dry days (i.e. a relative change within the same soil moisture data set over time) and rainfall occurrences. Consecutive dry days shows consistent results of a negative feedback between soil moisture and rainfall across various data sets, contrary to the direct comparison of soil moisture state. This negative mechanism needs attention, as most climate models usually focus on a positive feedback only. The approach of consecutive dry days takes into account the systematic errors in satellite observations, reminding us that it may cause the misinterpretation to directly compare model with satellite data, due to their difference in data retrievals. This finding is significant, as the climate indices employed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) modelling archive are based on the atmospheric variable rathr than land.

Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

2014-11-01

Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling communities.

Plasma sheet low-entropy flow channels and dipolarization fronts from macro to micro scales: Global MHD and PIC simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merkin, V. G.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Sitnov, M. I.; Lyon, J.

2016-12-01

Observations show that much of plasma and magnetic flux transport in the magnetotail occurs in the form of discrete activations such as bursty bulk flows (BBFs). These flow structures are typically associated with strong peaks of the Z-component of the magnetic field normal to the magnetotail current sheet (dipolarization fronts, DFs), as well as density and flux tube entropy depletions also called plasma bubbles. Extensive observational analysis of these structures has been carried out using data from Geotail spacecraft and more recently from Cluster, THEMIS, and MMS multi-probe missions. Global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of the magnetosphere reveal similar plasma sheet flow bursts, in agreement with regional MHD and particle-in-cell (PIC) models. We present results of high-resolution simulations using the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) global MHD model and analyze the properties of the bursty flows including their structure and evolution as they propagate from the mid-tail region into the inner magnetosphere. We highlight similarities and differences with the corresponding observations and discuss comparative properties of plasma bubbles and DFs in our global MHD simulations with their counterparts in 3D PIC simulations.

The Global Modeling Test Bed - Building a New National Capability for Advancing Operational Global Modeling in the United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toepfer, F.; Cortinas, J. V., Jr.; Kuo, W.; Tallapragada, V.; Stajner, I.; Nance, L. B.; Kelleher, K. E.; Firl, G.; Bernardet, L.

2017-12-01

NOAA develops, operates, and maintains an operational global modeling capability for weather, sub seasonal and seasonal prediction for the protection of life and property and fostering the US economy. In order to substantially improve the overall performance and accelerate advancements of the operational modeling suite, NOAA is partnering with NCAR to design and build the Global Modeling Test Bed (GMTB). The GMTB has been established to provide a platform and a capability for researchers to contribute to the advancement primarily through the development of physical parameterizations needed to improve operational NWP. The strategy to achieve this goal relies on effectively leveraging global expertise through a modern collaborative software development framework. This framework consists of a repository of vetted and supported physical parameterizations known as the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP), a common well-documented interface known as the Interoperable Physics Driver (IPD) for combining schemes into suites and for their configuration and connection to dynamic cores, and an open evidence-based governance process for managing the development and evolution of CCPP. In addition, a physics test harness designed to work within this framework has been established in order to facilitate easier like-to-like comparison of physics advancements. This paper will present an overview of the design of the CCPP and test platform. Additionally, an overview of potential new opportunities of how physics developers can engage in the process, from implementing code for CCPP/IPD compliance to testing their development within an operational-like software environment, will be presented. In addition, insight will be given as to how development gets elevated to CPPP-supported status, the pre-cursor to broad availability and use within operational NWP. An overview of how the GMTB can be expanded to support other global or regional modeling capabilities will also be presented.

Characterization of the Spatio-temporal Evolution of the Energy of Recent Tsunamis in Chile and its Connection with the Seismic Source and Geomorphological Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiroz, M.; Cienfuegos, R.

2017-12-01

At present, there is good knowledge acquired by the scientific community on characterizing the evolution of tsunami energy at ocean and shelf scales. For instance, the investigations of Rabinovich (2013) and Yamazaki (2011), represent some important advances in this subject. In the present paper we rather focus on tsunami energy evolution, and ultimately its decay, in coastal areas because characteristic time scales of this process has implications for early warning, evacuation initiation, and cancelling. We address the tsunami energy evolution analysis at three different spatial scales, a global scale at the ocean basin level, in particular the Pacific Ocean basin, a regional scale comprising processes that occur at the continental shelf level, and finally a local scale comprising coastal areas or bays. These scales were selected following the motivation to understand how the response is associated with tsunami, and how the energy evolves until it is completely dissipated. Through signal processing methods, such as discrete and wavelets analysis, we analyze time series of recent tsunamigenic events in the main Chilean coastal cities. Based on this analysis, we propose a conceptual model based on the influence of geomorphological variables on the evolution and decay of tsunami energy. This model acts as a filter from the seismic source to the observed response in coastal zones. Finally, we hope to conclude with practical tools that will establish patterns of behavior and scaling of energy evolution through interconnections from seismic source variables and the geomorphological component to understand the response and predict behavior for a given site.

How does a High Resolution Global Model represent Mesoscale Convective Systems over the Amazon Basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehbein, A.; Ambrizzi, T.

2017-12-01

The mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are very important meteorological systems, which can impact on the local, regional and global climate. Despite of their importance, the knowledge about their occurrence and behavior is still poor, mainly over the tropical region of South America where the data availability is scarce. Besides, few attentions are given to represent the MCSs in the numerical modeling in that region. The aim of the present work is to evaluate the representation of the MCSs by a global high resolution model over the Amazon basin. In this study, we will make a revision of the state of art involving the MCSs' over the Amazon basin and also how they are represented. For this last point, we will identify and track the MCSs using precipitation data from a high resolution nonhydrostatic global model, called Non-hydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM). The spatial and temporal resolution of NICAM are 14 km and 1 hour, respectively. The MCSs identification and tracking will be performed by the algorithm Forecast and Tracking the evolution of Cloud Clusters (ForTraCC) for the period of 2000 to 2008. This will allow us evaluate the representation of the MCSs obtained by NICAM and compare them with those found using infrared satellite images. NICAM's precipitation was validated using Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), from 1981 to 2008. Once the model is validated, we will analyze the variability of the MCSs using the simulations of the NICAM for a future climate.

Playing evolution in the laboratory: From the first major evolutionary transition to global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fragata, Inês; Simões, Pedro; Matos, Margarida; Szathmáry, Eörs; Santos, Mauro

2018-05-01

Experimental evolution allows testing hypotheses derived from theory or from observed patterns in nature. We have designed a droplet-based microfluidic “evolution machine” to test how transient compartmentalization (“trait-groups”) of independent molecular replicators (likely a critical step in the origin of life) could have prevented the spread of parasitic mutants; that is, inactive RNAs that have been reported to spoil a system of free replicators. In remarkable agreement with the theory, we show that this simple population structure was sufficient to prevent takeover by inactive RNAs. A more complex scenario arises when we use experimental evolution to test field-derived hypotheses; for instance, the idea that temperature is driving genetic spatiotemporal patterns of climate change. In the fly Drosophila subobscura, latitudinal clines in gene arrangement frequencies occur worldwide, and more equatorial gene arrangements are becoming more frequent at higher latitudes as a correlated response to climate change. However, the evolution at different constant temperatures in the laboratory was not consistent with patterns in nature, suggesting some limitations of experimental evolution. Finally, also in D. subobscura, we show that repeatability in experimental evolution is staggeringly consistent for life history traits, making evolution quite predictable and suggesting that laboratory selection can quickly erase differences between populations. Yet, the genetic paths used to attain the same adaptive phenotypes are complex and unpredictable. Contribution to the Focus Issue Evolutionary Modeling and Experimental Evolution edited by José Cuesta, Joachim Krug and Susanna Manrubia.

Paleobotany and Global Change: Important Lessons for Species to Biomes from Vegetation Responses to Past Global Change.

PubMed

McElwain, Jennifer C

2018-04-29

Human carbon use during the next century will lead to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (pCO 2 ) that have been unprecedented for the past 50-100+ million years according to fossil plant-based CO 2 estimates. The paleobotanical record of plants offers key insights into vegetation responses to past global change, including suitable analogs for Earth's climatic future. Past global warming events have resulted in transient poleward migration at rates that are equivalent to the lowest climate velocities required for current taxa to keep pace with climate change. Paleobiome reconstructions suggest that the current tundra biome is the biome most threatened by global warming. The common occurrence of paleoforests at high polar latitudes when pCO 2 was above 500 ppm suggests that the advance of woody shrub and tree taxa into tundra environments may be inevitable. Fossil pollen studies demonstrate the resilience of wet tropical forests to global change up to 700 ppm CO 2 , contrary to modeled predictions of the future. The paleobotanical record also demonstrates a high capacity for functional trait evolution as an additional strategy to migration and maintenance of a species' climate envelope in response to global change.

Analyzing the evolution of young people's brain cancer mortality in Spanish provinces.

PubMed

Ugarte, M D; Adin, A; Goicoa, T; López-Abente, G

2015-06-01

To analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of brain cancer relative mortality risks in young population (under 20 years of age) in Spanish provinces during the period 1986-2010. A new and flexible conditional autoregressive spatio-temporal model with two levels of spatial aggregation was used. Brain cancer relative mortality risks in young population in Spanish provinces decreased during the last years, although a clear increase was observed during the 1990s. The global geographical pattern emphasized a high relative mortality risk in Navarre and a low relative mortality risk in Madrid. Although there is a specific Autonomous Region-time interaction effect on the relative mortality risks this effect is weak in the final estimates when compared to the global spatial and temporal effects. Differences in mortality between regions and over time may be caused by the increase in survival rates, the differences in treatment or the availability of diagnostic tools. The increase in relative risks observed in the 1990s was probably due to improved diagnostics with computerized axial tomography and magnetic resonance imaging techniques. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hierarchical Model for the Evolution of Cloud Complexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez D., Néstor M.; Parravano, Antonio

1999-01-01

The structure of cloud complexes appears to be well described by a tree structure (i.e., a simplified ``stick man'') representation when the image is partitioned into ``clouds.'' In this representation, the parent-child relationships are assigned according to containment. Based on this picture, a hierarchical model for the evolution of cloud complexes, including star formation, is constructed. The model follows the mass evolution of each substructure by computing its mass exchange with its parent and children. The parent-child mass exchange (evaporation or condensation) depends on the radiation density at the interphase. At the end of the ``lineage,'' stars may be born or die, so that there is a nonstationary mass flow in the hierarchical structure. For a variety of parameter sets the system follows the same series of steps to transform diffuse gas into stars, and the regulation of the mass flux in the tree by previously formed stars dominates the evolution of the star formation. For the set of parameters used here as a reference model, the system tends to produce initial mass functions (IMFs) that have a maximum at a mass that is too high (~2 Msolar) and the characteristic times for evolution seem too long. We show that these undesired properties can be improved by adjusting the model parameters. The model requires further physics (e.g., allowing for multiple stellar systems and clump collisions) before a definitive comparison with observations can be made. Instead, the emphasis here is to illustrate some general properties of this kind of complex nonlinear model for the star formation process. Notwithstanding the simplifications involved, the model reveals an essential feature that will likely remain if additional physical processes are included, that is, the detailed behavior of the system is very sensitive to the variations on the initial and external conditions, suggesting that a ``universal'' IMF is very unlikely. When an ensemble of IMFs corresponding to a variety of initial or external conditions is examined, the slope of the IMF at high masses shows variations comparable to the range derived from observational data. These facts suggest that the considered physical processes (phase transitions regulated by the radiation field) may play a role in the global evolution of molecular complexes.

Body size reductions in nonmammalian eutheriodont therapsids (Synapsida) during the end-Permian mass extinction.

PubMed

Huttenlocker, Adam K

2014-01-01

The extent to which mass extinctions influence body size evolution in major tetrapod clades is inadequately understood. For example, the 'Lilliput effect,' a common feature of mass extinctions, describes a temporary decrease in body sizes of survivor taxa in post-extinction faunas. However, its signature on existing patterns of body size evolution in tetrapods and the persistence of its impacts during post-extinction recoveries are virtually unknown, and rarely compared in both geologic and phylogenetic contexts. Here, I evaluate temporal and phylogenetic distributions of body size in Permo-Triassic therocephalian and cynodont therapsids (eutheriodonts) using a museum collections-based approach and time series model fitting on a regional stratigraphic sequence from the Karoo Basin, South Africa. I further employed rank order correlation tests on global age and clade rank data from an expanded phylogenetic dataset, and performed evolutionary model testing using Brownian (passive diffusion) models. Results support significant size reductions in the immediate aftermath of the end-Permian mass extinction (ca. 252.3 Ma) consistent with some definitions of Lilliput effects. However, this temporal succession reflects a pattern that was underscored largely by Brownian processes and constructive selectivity. Results also support two recent contentions about body size evolution and mass extinctions: 1) active, directional evolution in size traits is rare over macroevolutionary time scales and 2) geologically brief size reductions may be accomplished by the ecological removal of large-bodied species without rapid originations of new small-bodied clades or shifts from long-term evolutionary patterns.

Two-fluid and finite Larmor radius effects on helicity evolution in a plasma pinch

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sauppe, J. P., E-mail: jpsauppe@gmail.com; Department of Physics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1150 University Avenue, Madison, Wisconsin 53706; Sovinec, C. R., E-mail: csovinec@wisc.edu

2016-03-15

The evolution of magnetic energy, helicity, and hybrid helicity during nonlinear relaxation of a driven-damped plasma pinch is compared in visco-resistive magnetohydrodynamics and two-fluid models with and without the ion gyroviscous stress tensor. Magnetic energy and helicity are supplied via a boundary electric field which initially balances the resistive dissipation, and the plasma undergoes multiple relaxation events during the nonlinear evolution. The magnetic helicity is well conserved relative to the magnetic energy over each event, which is short compared with the global resistive diffusion time. The magnetic energy decreases by roughly 1.5% of its initial value over a relaxation event,more » while the magnetic helicity changes by at most 0.2% of the initial value. The hybrid helicity is dominated by magnetic helicity in low-β pinch conditions and is also well conserved. Differences of less than 1% between magnetic helicity and hybrid helicity are observed with two-fluid modeling and result from cross helicity evolution. The cross helicity is found to change appreciably due to the first-order finite Larmor radius effects which have not been included in contemporary relaxation theories. The plasma current evolves towards the flat parallel current state predicted by Taylor relaxation theory but does not achieve it. Plasma flow develops significant structure for two-fluid models, and the flow perpendicular to the magnetic field is much more substantial than the flow along it.« less

Fluctuations of global energy release and crackling in nominally brittle heterogeneous fracture.

PubMed

Barés, J; Hattali, M L; Dalmas, D; Bonamy, D

2014-12-31

The temporal evolution of mechanical energy and spatially averaged crack speed are both monitored in slowly fracturing artificial rocks. Both signals display an irregular burstlike dynamics, with power-law distributed fluctuations spanning a broad range of scales. Yet, the elastic power released at each time step is proportional to the global velocity all along the process, which enables defining a material-constant fracture energy. We characterize the intermittent dynamics by computing the burst statistics. This latter displays the scale-free features signature of crackling dynamics, in qualitative but not quantitative agreement with the depinning interface models derived for fracture problems. The possible sources of discrepancies are pointed out and discussed.

Local cascades induced global contagion: How heterogeneous thresholds, exogenous effects, and unconcerned behaviour govern online adoption spreading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karsai, Márton; Iñiguez, Gerardo; Kikas, Riivo; Kaski, Kimmo; Kertész, János

2016-06-01

Adoption of innovations, products or online services is commonly interpreted as a spreading process driven to large extent by social influence and conditioned by the needs and capacities of individuals. To model this process one usually introduces behavioural threshold mechanisms, which can give rise to the evolution of global cascades if the system satisfies a set of conditions. However, these models do not address temporal aspects of the emerging cascades, which in real systems may evolve through various pathways ranging from slow to rapid patterns. Here we fill this gap through the analysis and modelling of product adoption in the world’s largest voice over internet service, the social network of Skype. We provide empirical evidence about the heterogeneous distribution of fractional behavioural thresholds, which appears to be independent of the degree of adopting egos. We show that the structure of real-world adoption clusters is radically different from previous theoretical expectations, since vulnerable adoptions—induced by a single adopting neighbour—appear to be important only locally, while spontaneous adopters arriving at a constant rate and the involvement of unconcerned individuals govern the global emergence of social spreading.

Establishing the Common Community Physics Package by Transitioning the GFS Physics to a Collaborative Software Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, L.; Firl, G.; Zhang, M.; Jimenez, P. A.; Gill, D.; Carson, L.; Bernardet, L.; Brown, T.; Dudhia, J.; Nance, L. B.; Stark, D. R.

2017-12-01

The Global Model Test Bed (GMTB) has been established to support the evolution of atmospheric physical parameterizations in NCEP global modeling applications. To accelerate the transition to the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS), a collaborative model development framework known as the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) is created within the GMTB to facilitate engagement from the broad community on physics experimentation and development. A key component to this Research to Operation (R2O) software framework is the Interoperable Physics Driver (IPD) that hooks the physics parameterizations from one end to the dynamical cores on the other end with minimum implementation effort. To initiate the CCPP, scientists and engineers from the GMTB separated and refactored the GFS physics. This exercise demonstrated the process of creating IPD-compliant code and can serve as an example for other physics schemes to do the same and be considered for inclusion into the CCPP. Further benefits to this process include run-time physics suite configuration and considerably reduced effort for testing modifications to physics suites through GMTB's physics test harness. The implementation will be described and the preliminary results will be presented at the conference.

Local cascades induced global contagion: How heterogeneous thresholds, exogenous effects, and unconcerned behaviour govern online adoption spreading

PubMed Central

Karsai, Márton; Iñiguez, Gerardo; Kikas, Riivo; Kaski, Kimmo; Kertész, János

2016-01-01

Adoption of innovations, products or online services is commonly interpreted as a spreading process driven to large extent by social influence and conditioned by the needs and capacities of individuals. To model this process one usually introduces behavioural threshold mechanisms, which can give rise to the evolution of global cascades if the system satisfies a set of conditions. However, these models do not address temporal aspects of the emerging cascades, which in real systems may evolve through various pathways ranging from slow to rapid patterns. Here we fill this gap through the analysis and modelling of product adoption in the world’s largest voice over internet service, the social network of Skype. We provide empirical evidence about the heterogeneous distribution of fractional behavioural thresholds, which appears to be independent of the degree of adopting egos. We show that the structure of real-world adoption clusters is radically different from previous theoretical expectations, since vulnerable adoptions—induced by a single adopting neighbour—appear to be important only locally, while spontaneous adopters arriving at a constant rate and the involvement of unconcerned individuals govern the global emergence of social spreading. PMID:27272744

It's a Sooty Problem: Black Carbon and Aerosols from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufman, Yoram J.

2005-01-01

Our knowledge of atmospheric aerosols (smoke, pollution, dust or sea salt particles, small enough to be suspended in the air), their evolution, composition, variability in space and time and interaction with solar radiation, clouds and precipitation is lacking despite decades of research. Just recently we recognized that understanding the global aerosol system is fundamental for progress in climate change and hydrological cycle research. While a single instrument was used to demonstrate 50 yrs ago that the global CO2 levels are rising, posing thread to our climate, we need an may of satellites, surface networks of radiometers, elaborated laboratory and field experiments coupled with chemical transport models to understand the global aerosol system. This complexity of the aerosol problem results from their short lifetime (1 week), variability of the chemical composition and complex chemical and physical processes in the atmosphere. The result is a heterogeneous distribution of aerosol and their properties. The new generation of satellites and surface networks of radiometers provides exciting opportunities to measure the aerosol properties and their interaction with clouds and climate. However farther development in the satellite capability, aerosol chemical models and climate models is needed to fully decipher the aerosol secrets with accuracy required to predict future climates.

Tolerance adaptation and precipitation changes complicate latitudinal patterns of climate change impacts.

PubMed

Bonebrake, Timothy C; Mastrandrea, Michael D

2010-07-13

Global patterns of biodiversity and comparisons between tropical and temperate ecosystems have pervaded ecology from its inception. However, the urgency in understanding these global patterns has been accentuated by the threat of rapid climate change. We apply an adaptive model of environmental tolerance evolution to global climate data and climate change model projections to examine the relative impacts of climate change on different regions of the globe. Our results project more adverse impacts of warming on tropical populations due to environmental tolerance adaptation to conditions of low interannual variability in temperature. When applied to present variability and future forecasts of precipitation data, the tolerance adaptation model found large reductions in fitness predicted for populations in high-latitude northern hemisphere regions, although some tropical regions had comparable reductions in fitness. We formulated an evolutionary regional climate change index (ERCCI) to additionally incorporate the predicted changes in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. Based on this index, we suggest that the magnitude of climate change impacts could be much more heterogeneous across latitude than previously thought. Specifically, tropical regions are likely to be just as affected as temperate regions and, in some regions under some circumstances, possibly more so.

Dynamics of Solar System Dust

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dermott, Stanley F.

2002-01-01

The ongoing aim of the research is to investigate the dynamical and physical evolution of interplanetary dust particles in order to produce a detailed global model of the zodiacal cloud and its constituent components that is capable of predicting thermal fluxes in mid-infrared wave bands to an accuracy of 1% or better; with the additional aim of exploiting this research as a basis for predicting structure in exozodiacal clouds that may be signatures of unseen planets.

Spatially structured superinfection and the evolution of disease virulence.

PubMed

Caraco, Thomas; Glavanakov, Stephan; Li, Shengua; Maniatty, William; Szymanski, Boleslaw K

2006-06-01

When pathogen strains differing in virulence compete for hosts, spatial structuring of disease transmission can govern both evolved levels of virulence and patterns in strain coexistence. We develop a spatially detailed model of superinfection, a form of contest competition between pathogen strains; the probability of superinfection depends explicitly on the difference in levels of virulence. We apply methods of adaptive dynamics to address the interplay of spatial dynamics and evolution. The mean-field approximation predicts evolution to criticality; any small increase in virulence capable of dynamical persistence is favored. Both pair approximation and simulation of the detailed model indicate that spatial structure constrains disease virulence. Increased spatial clustering reduces the maximal virulence capable of single-strain persistence and, more importantly, reduces the convergent-stable virulence level under strain competition. The spatially detailed model predicts that increasing the probability of superinfection, for given difference in virulence, increases the likelihood of between-strain coexistence. When strains differing in virulence can coexist ecologically, our results may suggest policies for managing diseases with localized transmission. Comparing equilibrium densities from the pair approximation, we find that introducing a more virulent strain into a host population infected by a less virulent strain can sometimes reduce total host mortality and increase global host density.

Probing galaxy growth through metallicity scaling relations over the past 12 Gyr of cosmic history

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanders, Ryan; MOSDEF team

2018-01-01

A primary goal of galaxy evolution studies is to understand the processes governing the growth of the baryonic content of galaxies over cosmic history. Observations of galaxy metallicity scaling relations and their evolution with redshift, in combination with chemical evolution models, provide unique insight into the interplay between star formation, gas accretion, and feedback/outflows. I present measurements of the stellar mass-gas phase metallicity relation and its evolution over the past 12 Gyr from z~0 to z~3.5, utilizing data from the Mosfire Deep Evolution Field survey that uniquely provides rest-frame optical spectra of >1000 uniformly-selected galaxies at z=1.3-3.8. We find evolution towards lower metallicity at fixed stellar mass with increasing redshift that is consistent with current cosmological simulations including chemical evolution, with a large evolution of ~0.3 dex from z~0 to z~2.5 and minor evolution of <0.1 dex from z~2.5 to z~3.5. We unambiguously confirm the existence of star-formation rate dependence of the mass-metallicity relation at high redshift for the first time. A clear view of cosmic chemical evolution requires accounting for systematic biases in galaxy metallicity measurements at both low and high redshifts. We use a set of empirically-based models to correct for diffuse ionized gas contamination that biases metallicity estimates from z~0 global galaxy spectra. Evolving properties of ionized gas such as electron density, ionization parameter, hardness of the ionizing spectrum, and chemical abundance patterns may render locally-calibrated metallicity estimators unreliable at high redshifts. Using strong-line ratios alone, it is extremely difficult to break degenerate solutions between pure metallicity evolution and additional evolution of the ionization parameter and/or shape of the ionizing spectrum. Temperature-sensitive auroral-line measurements provide a way to directly and independently measure metallicities, breaking these degeneracies. We present measurements of auroral [OIII]4363 and direct-method metallicities at z>2, and discuss the potential of current and next-generation observational facilities to obtain statistical auroral-line samples at high redshifts.

Volcanism on Io: Insights from Global Geologic Mapping

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, D. A.; Keszthelyi, L. P.; Crown, D. A.; Geissler, P. E.; Schenk, P. M.; Yff, Jessica; Jaeger, W. L.

2009-01-01

We are preparing a new global geo-logic map of Jupiter s volcanic moon, Io. Here we report the type of data that are now available from our global mapping efforts, and how these data can be used to investigate questions regarding the volcano-tectonic evolution of Io. We are using the new map to investigate several specific questions about the geologic evolution of Io that previously could not be well addressed, including (for example) a comparison of the areas vs. the heights of Ionian mountains to assess their stability and evolution (Fig. 1). The area-height relationships of Io s visible mountains show the low abundance and low relief of volcanic mountains (tholi) relative to tectonic mountains, consistent with formation from low-viscosity lavas less likely to build steep edifices. Mottled mountains are generally less high than lineated mountains, consistent with a degradational formation.

Understanding the Global Structure and Evolution of Coronal Mass Ejections in the Solar Wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Riley, Pete

2004-01-01

This report summarizes the technical progress made during the first six months of the second year of the NASA Living with a Star program contract Understanding the global structure and evolution of coronal mass ejections in the solar wind, between NASA and Science Applications International Corporation, and covers the period November 18, 2003 - May 17,2004. Under this contract SAIC has conducted numerical and data analysis related to fundamental issues concerning the origin, intrinsic properties, global structure, and evolution of coronal mass ejections in the solar wind. During this working period we have focused on a quantitative assessment of 5 flux rope fitting techniques. In the following sections we summarize the main aspects of this work and our proposed investigation plan for the next reporting period. Thus far, our investigation has resulted in 6 refereed scientific publications and we have presented the results at a number of scientific meetings and workshops.

A multiscale climate emulator for long-term morphodynamics (MUSCLE-morpho)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antolínez, José Antonio A.; Méndez, Fernando J.; Camus, Paula; Vitousek, Sean; González, E. Mauricio; Ruggiero, Peter; Barnard, Patrick

2016-01-01

Interest in understanding long-term coastal morphodynamics has recently increased as climate change impacts become perceptible and accelerated. Multiscale, behavior-oriented and process-based models, or hybrids of the two, are typically applied with deterministic approaches which require considerable computational effort. In order to reduce the computational cost of modeling large spatial and temporal scales, input reduction and morphological acceleration techniques have been developed. Here we introduce a general framework for reducing dimensionality of wave-driver inputs to morphodynamic models. The proposed framework seeks to account for dependencies with global atmospheric circulation fields and deals simultaneously with seasonality, interannual variability, long-term trends, and autocorrelation of wave height, wave period, and wave direction. The model is also able to reproduce future wave climate time series accounting for possible changes in the global climate system. An application of long-term shoreline evolution is presented by comparing the performance of the real and the simulated wave climate using a one-line model. This article was corrected on 2 FEB 2016. See the end of the full text for details.

Sources and Variability of Aerosols and Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, H.; Zhang, B.; Taylor, P. C.; Moore, R.; Barahona, D.; Fairlie, T. D.; Chen, G.; Ham, S. H.; Kato, S.

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice in recent decades has significantly declined. This requires understanding of the Arctic surface energy balance, of which clouds are a major driver. However, the mechanisms for the formation and evolution of clouds in the Arctic and the roles of aerosols therein are highly uncertain. Here we conduct data analysis and global model simulations to examine the sources and variability of aerosols and aerosol-cloud interactions in the Arctic. We use the MERRA-2 reanalysis data (2006-present) from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to (1) quantify contributions of different aerosol types to the aerosol budget and aerosol optical depths in the Arctic, (2) ­examine aerosol distributions and variability and diagnose the major pathways for mid-latitude pollution transport to the Arctic, including their seasonal and interannual variability, and (3) characterize the distribution and variability of clouds (cloud optical depth, cloud fraction, cloud liquid and ice water path, cloud top height) in the Arctic. We compare MERRA-2 aerosol and cloud properties with those from C3M, a 3-D aerosol and cloud data product developed at NASA Langley Research Center and merged from multiple A-Train satellite (CERES, CloudSat, CALIPSO, and MODIS) observations. We also conduct perturbation experiments using the NASA GEOS-5 chemistry-climate model (with GOCART aerosol module coupled with two-moment cloud microphysics), and discuss the roles of various types of aerosols in the formation and evolution of clouds in the Arctic.

Near-equilibrium desorption of helium films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weimer, M.; Housley, R. M.; Goodstein, D. L.

1987-10-01

The thermal desorption of helium films in the presence of their equilibrium vapor is studied experimentally for small but rapid departures from ambient temperature. The results are analyzed within the framework of a quasithermodynamic phenomenological model based on detailed balance. Under the usual experimental conditions, isothermal desorption at the temperature of the substrate is a general prediction of the model which seems to be substantiated. For realistic adsorption isotherms the time evolution of the net desorption flux nevertheless appears to be governed by a highly nonlinear equation. In such circumstances, a number of characteristic relaxation times may be identified. These time scales are distinct from, and in general unrelated to, the coverage-dependent mean lifetime of an atom on the surface. To characterize the overall nonlinear evolution towards steady state, a global time scale, defined in terms of both initial- and steady-state properties, is introduced to summarize the experimental data. Internal evidence suggests a criterion for judging when collisions among desorbed atoms are unimportant. When this condition is satisfied, data for near-equilibrium desorption agree well with the predictions of the model. Combining our results with earlier data at higher substrate temperatures and different ambient conditions, the overall picture is consistent with scaling properties implied by the theory. We show that the values of the parameters deduced from a Frenkel-Arrhenius parametrization of the global relaxation times, as well as a variety of other aspects of desorption kinetics, are actually consequences of the shape of the equilibrium adsorption isotherm.

Source attribution using FLEXPART and carbon monoxide emission inventories for the IAGOS In-situ Observation database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fontaine, Alain; Sauvage, Bastien; Pétetin, Hervé; Auby, Antoine; Boulanger, Damien; Thouret, Valerie

2016-04-01

Since 1994, the IAGOS program (In-Service Aircraft for a Global Observing System http://www.iagos.org) and its predecessor MOZAIC has produced in-situ measurements of the atmospheric composition during more than 46000 commercial aircraft flights. In order to help analyzing these observations and further understanding the processes driving their evolution, we developed a modelling tool SOFT-IO quantifying their source/receptor link. We improved the methodology used by Stohl et al. (2003), based on the FLEXPART plume dispersion model, to simulate the contributions of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions from the ECCAD database (http://eccad.aeris-data.fr) to the measured carbon monoxide mixing ratio along each IAGOS flight. Thanks to automated processes, contributions are simulated for the last 20 days before observation, separating individual contributions from the different source regions. The main goal is to supply add-value products to the IAGOS database showing pollutants geographical origin and emission type. Using this information, it may be possible to link trends in the atmospheric composition to changes in the transport pathways and to the evolution of emissions. This tool could be used for statistical validation as well as for inter-comparisons of emission inventories using large amounts of data, as Lagrangian models are able to bring the global scale emissions down to a smaller scale, where they can be directly compared to the in-situ observations from the IAGOS database.

A model of early formation of uranium molecular oxides in laser-ablated plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finko, Mikhail; Curreli, Davide; Azer, Magdi; Weisz, David; Crowhurst, Jonathan; Rose, Timothy; Koroglu, Batikan; Radousky, Harry; Zaug, Joseph; Armstrong, Mike

2017-10-01

An important problem within the field of nuclear forensics is fractionation: the formation of post-detonation nuclear debris whose composition does not reflect that of the source weapon. We are investigating uranium fractionation in rapidly cooling plasma using a combined experimental and modeling approach. In particular, we use laser ablation of uranium metal samples to produce a low-temperature plasma with physical conditions similar to a condensing nuclear fireball. Here we present a first plasma-chemistry model of uranium molecular species formation during the early stage of laser ablated plasma evolution in atmospheric oxygen. The system is simulated using a global kinetic model with rate coefficients calculated according to literature data and the application of reaction rate theory. The model allows for a detailed analysis of the evolution of key uranium molecular species and represents the first step in producing a uranium fireball model that is kinetically validated against spatially and temporally resolved spectroscopy measurements. This project was sponsored by the DoD, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, Grant HDTRA1-16- 1-0020. This work was performed in part under the auspices of the U.S. DoE by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52- 07NA27344.

Adaptation in Tunably Rugged Fitness Landscapes: The Rough Mount Fuji Model

PubMed Central

Neidhart, Johannes; Szendro, Ivan G.; Krug, Joachim

2014-01-01

Much of the current theory of adaptation is based on Gillespie’s mutational landscape model (MLM), which assumes that the fitness values of genotypes linked by single mutational steps are independent random variables. On the other hand, a growing body of empirical evidence shows that real fitness landscapes, while possessing a considerable amount of ruggedness, are smoother than predicted by the MLM. In the present article we propose and analyze a simple fitness landscape model with tunable ruggedness based on the rough Mount Fuji (RMF) model originally introduced by Aita et al. in the context of protein evolution. We provide a comprehensive collection of results pertaining to the topographical structure of RMF landscapes, including explicit formulas for the expected number of local fitness maxima, the location of the global peak, and the fitness correlation function. The statistics of single and multiple adaptive steps on the RMF landscape are explored mainly through simulations, and the results are compared to the known behavior in the MLM model. Finally, we show that the RMF model can explain the large number of second-step mutations observed on a highly fit first-step background in a recent evolution experiment with a microvirid bacteriophage. PMID:25123507

Self-organized criticality in forest-landscape evolution

Treesearch

J.C. Sprott; Janine Bolliger; David J. Mladenoff

2002-01-01

A simple cellular automaton replicates the fractal pattern of a natural forest landscape and predicts its evolution. Spatial distributions and temporal fluctuations in global quantities show power-law spectra, implying scale-invariance, characteristic of self-organized criticality. The evolution toward the SOC state and the robustness of that state to perturbations...

Formation and Reconnection of Three-Dimensional Current Sheets in the Solar Corona

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edmondson, J. K.; Antiochos, S. K.; DeVore, C. R.; Zurbuchen, T. H.

2010-01-01

Current-sheet formation and magnetic reconnection are believed to be the basic physical processes responsible for much of the activity observed in astrophysical plasmas, such as the Sun s corona. We investigate these processes for a magnetic configuration consisting of a uniform background field and an embedded line dipole, a topology that is expected to be ubiquitous in the corona. This magnetic system is driven by a uniform horizontal flow applied at the line-tied photosphere. Although both the initial field and the driver are translationally symmetric, the resulting evolution is calculated using a fully three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (3D MHD) simulation with adaptive mesh refinement that resolves the current sheet and reconnection dynamics in detail. The advantage of our approach is that it allows us to apply directly the vast body of knowledge gained from the many studies of 2D reconnection to the fully 3D case. We find that a current sheet forms in close analogy to the classic Syrovatskii 2D mechanism, but the resulting evolution is different than expected. The current sheet is globally stable, showing no evidence for a disruption or a secondary instability even for aspect ratios as high as 80:1. The global evolution generally follows the standard Sweet- Parker 2D reconnection model except for an accelerated reconnection rate at a very thin current sheet, due to the tearing instability and the formation of magnetic islands. An interesting conclusion is that despite the formation of fully 3D structures at small scales, the system remains close to 2D at global scales. We discuss the implications of our results for observations of the solar corona. Subject Headings: Sun: corona Sun: magnetic fields Sun: reconnection

Simulation of the fine structure of the 12 July 1996 Stratosphere-Troposphere Experiment: Radiation, Aerosols and Ozone (STERAO-A) storm accounting for effects of terrain and interaction with mesoscale flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenchikov, Georgiy; Pickering, Kenneth; Decaria, Alex; Tao, W.-K.; Scala, John; Ott, Lesley; Bartels, Diana; Matejka, Thomas

2005-07-01

Vertical mixing of chemical tracers and optically active constituents by deep convection affects regional and global chemical balances in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. This important process is not explicitly resolved in global and regional models and has to be parameterized. However, mixing depends strongly on the spatial structure, strength, and temporal evolution of the particular storm, complicating parameterization of this important effect in the large-scale models. To better quantify dynamic fields and associated mixing processes, we simulate a thunderstorm observed on 12 July 1996 during the STERAO-A (Stratosphere-Troposphere Experiment: Radiation, Aerosols, and Ozone) Deep Convection field project using the Goddard Cloud Ensemble (GCE) model. The 12 July STERAO-A storm had very complex temporal and spatial structure. The meteorological environment and evolution of the storm were significantly different than those of the 10 July STERAO-A storm extensively discussed in previous studies. Our 2-D and 3-D GCE model runs with uniform one-sounding initialization were unable to reproduce the full life cycle of the 12 July storm observed by the CHILL radar system. To describe the storm evolution, we modified the 3-D GCE model to include the effects of terrain and the capability of using nonuniform initial fields. We conducted a series of numerical experiments and reproduced the observed life cycle and fine spatial structure of the storm. The main characteristics of the 3-D simulation of the 12 July storm were compared with observations, with 2-D simulations of the same storm, and with the evolution of the 10 July storm. The simulated 3-D convection appears to be stronger and more realistic than in our 2-D simulations. Having developed in a less unstable environment than the 10 July 1996 STERAO-A storm, our simulation of the 12 July storm produced weaker but sustainable convection that was significantly fed by wind shear instability in the lower troposphere. The time evolution, direction, and speed of propagation of the storm were determined by interaction with the nonuniform background mesoscale flow. For example, storm intensity decreased drastically when the storm left the region with large convective available potential energy. The model appears to be successful in reproducing the rectangular four-cell structure of the convection. The distributions of convergence, vertical vorticity, and position of the inflow level in the later single-cell regime compare favorably with the airborne Doppler radar observations. This analysis allowed us to better understand the role of terrain and mesoscale circulation in the development of a midlatitude deep convective system and associated convective mixing. Wind, temperature, hydrometeor, and turbulent diffusion coefficient data from the cloud model simulations were provided for off-line 3-D cloud-scale chemical transport simulations discussed in the companion paper by DeCaria et al. (2005).

Petrology and Geochemistry of Unbrecciated Harzburgitic Diogenite MIL 07001: A Window Into Vestan Geological Evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mittlefehldt, D. W.; Peng, Z. X.; Mertzman, S. A.; Mertzman, K. R.

2014-01-01

There is a strong case that asteroid 4 Vesta is the parent of the howardite, eucrite and diogenite (HED) meteorites. Models developed for the geological evolution of Vesta can satisfy the compositions of basaltic eucrites that dominate in the upper crust. The bulk compositional characteristics of diogenites - cumulate harzburgites and orthopyroxenites from the lower crust - do not fit into global magma ocean models that can describe the compositions of basaltic and cumulate eucrites. Recent more detailed formation models do make provision for a more complicated origin for diogenites, but this model has yet to be completely vetted. Compositional studies of bulk samples has led to the hypothesis that many diogenites were formed late by interaction of their parent melts with a eucritic crust, but those observations may alternatively be explained by subsolidus equilibration of trace elements between orthopyroxene and plagioclase and Ca-phosphate in the rocks. Differences in radiogenic Mg-26 content between diogenites and eucrites favors early formation of the former, not later formation. Understanding the origin of diogenites is crucial for understanding the petrologic evolution of Vesta. We have been doing coordinated studies of a suite of diogenites including petrologic investigations, bulk rock major and trace element studies, and in situ trace element analyses of orthopyroxene. Here we will focus on an especially unusual, and potentially key, diogenite, MIL 07001.

Chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometry-Based Measurements of HO2 and RO2 During TRACE-P

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cantrell, Christopher A.; Eisele, Fred L.

2004-01-01

The Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) mission extends NASA's Global Tropospheric Experiment (GTE) series of campaigns. TRACE-P was an aircraft-based campaign that was part of a larger ground-based and aircraft-based program (APARE) under the auspices of the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) program. TRACE-P was designed to (1) determine the chemical composition of Asian outflow over the western Pacific, and to (2) determine the chemical evolution of the Asian outflow. These objectives were addressed through a variety of observations and numerical modeling exercises. In particular, the goals included sampling strategies that would improve understanding of the budgets of odd hydrogen species (OH and HO2), budgets of NOx (NO, NO2, and their reservoirs), and impacts of oxidants produced in the outflow on air quality in the United States. The NASA DC-8 and P-3B aircraft were deployed in the March and April, 2001 out of primary bases of operation in Hong Kong and Yokota Air Base in Japan. These two aircraft have complementary capabilities which allow high altitude and long range impacts, as well as low altitude, local impacts to be assessed. In order to quantify the composition and evolution of Asian outflow, it is important to quantify as many species as possible including photochemically active species (e.g. NO2, CH2O, O3, acetone, etc.), sources species (VOCs, CO, NOx, SO2, aerosols), reactive intermediates including free radicals (OH, HO2, RO2, and their reservoirs), and end products (nitric acid, sulfuric acid, secondary aerosols, etc.). The more complete the measurement suite, the more tightly constrained the numerical modeling can be (within the uncertainties of the measurements). The numerical models range in sophistication from simple steady state box models (as employed in this study) to multi-dimensional chemical transport models. Data were collected on approximately 20 flights of the DC-8 and 21 flights of the P-3B. Observations from both aircraft were used in the present analysis, but primarily focused on the P-3B flights since that was the platform on which the peroxy radical instrumentation was based.

Progress in the Development of a Global Quasi-3-D Multiscale Modeling Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, J.; Konor, C. S.; Randall, D. A.

2017-12-01

The Quasi-3-D Multiscale Modeling Framework (Q3D MMF) is a second-generation MMF, which has following advances over the first-generation MMF: 1) The cloud-resolving models (CRMs) that replace conventional parameterizations are not confined to the large-scale dynamical-core grid cells, and are seamlessly connected to each other, 2) The CRMs sense the three-dimensional large- and cloud-scale environment, 3) Two perpendicular sets of CRM channels are used, and 4) The CRMs can resolve the steep surface topography along the channel direction. The basic design of the Q3D MMF has been developed and successfully tested in a limited-area modeling framework. Currently, global versions of the Q3D MMF are being developed for both weather and climate applications. The dynamical cores governing the large-scale circulation in the global Q3D MMF are selected from two cube-based global atmospheric models. The CRM used in the model is the 3-D nonhydrostatic anelastic Vector-Vorticity Model (VVM), which has been tested with the limited-area version for its suitability for this framework. As a first step of the development, the VVM has been reconstructed on the cubed-sphere grid so that it can be applied to global channel domains and also easily fitted to the large-scale dynamical cores. We have successfully tested the new VVM by advecting a bell-shaped passive tracer and simulating the evolutions of waves resulted from idealized barotropic and baroclinic instabilities. For improvement of the model, we also modified the tracer advection scheme to yield positive-definite results and plan to implement a new physics package that includes a double-moment microphysics and an aerosol physics. The interface for coupling the large-scale dynamical core and the VVM is under development. In this presentation, we shall describe the recent progress in the development and show some test results.

Thermal niche estimators and the capability of poor dispersal species to cope with climate change

PubMed Central

Sánchez-Fernández, David; Rizzo, Valeria; Cieslak, Alexandra; Faille, Arnaud; Fresneda, Javier; Ribera, Ignacio

2016-01-01

For management strategies in the context of global warming, accurate predictions of species response are mandatory. However, to date most predictions are based on niche (bioclimatic) models that usually overlook biotic interactions, behavioral adjustments or adaptive evolution, and assume that species can disperse freely without constraints. The deep subterranean environment minimises these uncertainties, as it is simple, homogeneous and with constant environmental conditions. It is thus an ideal model system to study the effect of global change in species with poor dispersal capabilities. We assess the potential fate of a lineage of troglobitic beetles under global change predictions using different approaches to estimate their thermal niche: bioclimatic models, rates of thermal niche change estimated from a molecular phylogeny, and data from physiological studies. Using bioclimatic models, at most 60% of the species were predicted to have suitable conditions in 2080. Considering the rates of thermal niche change did not improve this prediction. However, physiological data suggest that subterranean species have a broad thermal tolerance, allowing them to stand temperatures never experienced through their evolutionary history. These results stress the need of experimental approaches to assess the capability of poor dispersal species to cope with temperatures outside those they currently experience. PMID:26983802

Decompression models: review, relevance and validation capabilities.

PubMed

Hugon, J

2014-01-01

For more than a century, several types of mathematical models have been proposed to describe tissue desaturation mechanisms in order to limit decompression sickness. These models are statistically assessed by DCS cases, and, over time, have gradually included bubble formation biophysics. This paper proposes to review this evolution and discuss its limitations. This review is organized around the comparison of decompression model biophysical criteria and theoretical foundations. Then, the DCS-predictive capability was analyzed to assess whether it could be improved by combining different approaches. Most of the operational decompression models have a neo-Haldanian form. Nevertheless, bubble modeling has been gaining popularity, and the circulating bubble amount has become a major output. By merging both views, it seems possible to build a relevant global decompression model that intends to simulate bubble production while predicting DCS risks for all types of exposures and decompression profiles. A statistical approach combining both DCS and bubble detection databases has to be developed to calibrate a global decompression model. Doppler ultrasound and DCS data are essential: i. to make correlation and validation phases reliable; ii. to adjust biophysical criteria to fit at best the observed bubble kinetics; and iii. to build a relevant risk function.

Step wise, multiple objective calibration of a hydrologic model for a snowmelt dominated basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, L.E.; Leavesley, G.H.; Clark, M.P.; Markstrom, S.L.; Viger, R.J.; Umemoto, M.

2006-01-01

The ability to apply a hydrologic model to large numbers of basins for forecasting purposes requires a quick and effective calibration strategy. This paper presents a step wise, multiple objective, automated procedure for hydrologic model calibration. This procedure includes the sequential calibration of a model's simulation of solar radiation (SR), potential evapotranspiration (PET), water balance, and daily runoff. The procedure uses the Shuffled Complex Evolution global search algorithm to calibrate the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modeling System in the Yampa River basin of Colorado. This process assures that intermediate states of the model (SR and PET on a monthly mean basis), as well as the water balance and components of the daily hydrograph are simulated, consistently with measured values.

Studying the Thermal and Structural Evolution of Planetary Bodies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karimi, Mohammadali

The focus of this research is to study the thermal and structural evolution of three planetary bodies, Mars, Venus and the asteroid Vesta. The almost uniform spatial distribution of craters on the surfaces of planets makes them excellent candidates to examine the evolution of planets as a whole. By modeling the viscoelastic deformation of craters at the surface and subsurface with the Finite Element Method (FEM), this study investigated the role of lower crustal flow in crater relaxation, and since lower crustal flow is sensitive to the thermal state, it serves as a probe into the thermal evolution of planets. The thermal history of Mars was explored by modeling the evolution of large craters and Quasi-Circular Depressions (QCDs) in the Southern Highlands and Northern Lowlands, respectively. Because of the spatial distribution of craters, this study yielded a thermal map for Mars that is more complete and less biased regionally relative to other studies. The results revealed a higher background heat flux for the Northern Lowlands relative to the Southern Highlands during the most ancient Noachian epoch, which suggests a thermal fingerprint to whatever process that formed the hemispherical crustal dichotomy, the oldest and most prominent geomorphic feature on Mars. Next, the largest crater on the surface of Venus, Mead, also appears to have undergone significant lower crustal flow. Modeling the viscoelastic deformation of Mead puts constraints on the thermal state of our sister planet in the vicinity of the basin. The background heat flux of Venus estimated here is higher than globally average values predicted by previous thermal models. Moreover, this study showed that Venus's crust and mantle seem to be dry relative to those of the Earth. Last, modeling the evolution of two large craters in the south polar region of Vesta (Rheasilvia and Veneneia) showed that the shallow topography and large central peak of these craters are likely the products of a planetary scale impact, and not relaxation. Additionally, the possibility of relaxation of the rotational bulge was tested for the asteroid and showed that True Polar Wander (TPW) is not a likely scenario for Vesta.

Evolution of Pre-Main Sequence Accretion Disks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartmann, Lee W.

2002-01-01

The aim of this project is to develop a comprehensive global picture of the physical conditions in, and evolutionary timescales of, pre-main sequence accretion disks. The results of this work will help constrain the initial conditions for planet formation. To this end we plan to: (1) Develop much larger samples of 3-10 Myr-old stars to provide better empirical constraints on protoplanetary disk evolution; (2) Study the dusty emission and accretion rates in these systems, with ages closer to the expected epoch of (giant) planet formation at 3-10 Myr; and (3) Develop detailed model disk structures consistent with observations to infer physical conditions in protoplanetary disks and to constrain possible grain growth as the first stage of planetesimal formation.

How the biodiversity sciences may aid biological tools and ecological engineering to assess the impact of climatic changes.

PubMed

Morand, S; Guégan, J-F

2008-08-01

This paper addresses how climate changes interact with other global changes caused by humans (habitat fragmentation, changes in land use, bioinvasions) to affect biodiversity. Changes in biodiversity at all levels (genetic, population and community) affect the functioning of ecosystems, in particular host-pathogen interactions, with major consequences in health ecology (emergence and re-emergence; the evolution of virulence and resistance). In this paper, the authors demonstrate that the biodiversity sciences, epidemiological theory and evolutionary ecology are indispensable in assessing the impact of climate changes, and also for modelling the evolution of host-pathogen interactions in a changing environment. The next step is to apply health ecology to the science of ecological engineering.

[Metalworking industry management evolution].

PubMed

Mattucci, Massimo

2011-01-01

Analysis of the evolution drivers of the management systems in the metalworking industry, mainly characterized as "automotive", starting with the "mass production" model, followed for the development of Italian industry in the '50. Through the socio-economic changes of the '90/10, the metalworking plants were deeply restructured with the introduction of computers in the production systems, and then with the first global benchmarks such as the "lean production", towards the needed operational flexibility to respond to the market dynamics. Plants change radically, company networks become real, ICT services are fundamental elements for the integration. These trends help visualizing a new "Factory of the Future" for the years 2020/30, where the competition will be based on the socio-economical, technological and environmental factors included in the "Competitive Sustainable Manufacturing" paradigm.

Increases in both acute and chronic temperature potentiate tocotrienol concentrations in wild barley at 'Evolution Canyon'.

PubMed

Shen, Yu; Lansky, Ephraim; Traber, Maret; Nevo, Eviatar

2013-09-01

Biosynthesis of tocols (vitamin E isoforms) is linked to response to temperature in plants. 'Evolution Canyon', an ecogeographical microcosm extending over an average of 200 meters (range 100-400) wide area in the Carmel Mountains of northern Israel, has been suggested as a model for studying global warming. Both domestic (Hordeum vulgare) and wild (Hordeum spontaneum) barley compared with wheat, oat, corn, rice, and rye show high tocotrienol/tocopherol ratios. Therefore, we hypothesized that tocol distribution might change in response to global warming. α-, β-, γ-, and δ-tocopherol, and α-, β-, γ-, and δ-tocotrienol concentrations were measured in wild barley (H. spontaneum) seeds harvested from the xeric (African) and mesic (European) slopes of Evolution Canyon over a six-year period from 2005-2011. Additionally, we examined seeds from areas contiguous to and distant from the part of the Canyon severely burned during the Carmel Fire of December 2010. Increased α-tocotrienol (p<0.01) was correlated with 1) temperature increases, 2) to the hotter 'African' slope in contrast to the cooler 'European' slope, and 3) to propinquity to the fire. The study illustrates the role of α-tocotrienol in both chronic and acute temperature adaptation in wild barley and suggests future research into thermoregulatory mechanisms in plants. Copyright © 2013 Verlag Helvetica Chimica Acta AG, Zürich.

Lunar Global Heat Flow: Predictions and Constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siegler, M.; Williams, J. P.; Paige, D. A.; Feng, J.

2017-12-01

The global thermal state of the Moon provides fundamental information on its bulk composition and interior evolution. The Moon is known to have a highly asymmetric surface composition [e.g. Lawrence et al., 2003] and crustal thickness [Wieczorek et al.,2012], which is suspected to result from interior asymmetries [Wieczorek and Phillips, 2000; Laneuville et al., 2013]. This is likely to cause a highly asymmetric surface heat flux, both past and present. Our understanding the thermal evolution and composition of the bulk moon therefore requires a global picture of the present lunar thermal state, well beyond our two-point Apollo era measurement. As on the on the Earth, heat flow measurements need to be taken in carefully selected locations to truly characterize the state of the planet's interior. Future surface heat flux and seismic observations will be affected by the presence of interior temperature and crustal radiogenic anomalies, so placement of such instruments is critically important for understanding the lunar interior. The unfortunate coincidence that Apollo geophysical measurements lie areas within or directly abutting the highly radiogenic, anomalously thin-crusted Procellarum region highlights the importance of location for in situ geophysical study [e.g. Siegler and Smrekar, 2014]. Here we present the results of new models of global lunar geothermal heat flux. We synthesize data from several recent missions to constrain lunar crustal composition, thickness and density to provide global predictions of the surface heat flux of the Moon. We also discuss implications from new surface heat flux constraints from the LRO Diviner Lunar Radiometer Experiment and Chang'E 2 Microwave Radiometer. We will identify areas with the highest uncertainty to provide insight on the placement of future landed geophysical missions, such as the proposed Lunar Geophysical Network, to better aim our future exploration of the Moon.

Impact of RNA Degradation on Viral Diagnosis: An Understated but Essential Step for the Successful Establishment of a Diagnosis Network

PubMed Central

Relova, Damarys; Acevedo, Ana M.; Coronado, Liani; Perera, Carmen L.

2018-01-01

The current global conditions, which include intensive globalization, climate changes, and viral evolution among other factors, have led to an increased emergence of viruses and new viral diseases; RNA viruses are key drivers of this evolution. Laboratory networks that are linked to central reference laboratories are required to conduct both active and passive environmental surveillance of this complicated global viral environment. These tasks require a continuous exchange of strains or field samples between different diagnostic laboratories. The shipment of these samples on dry ice represents both a biological hazard and a general health risk. Moreover, the requirement to ship on dry ice could be hampered by high costs, particularly in underdeveloped countries or regions located far from each other. To solve these issues, the shipment of RNA isolated from viral suspensions or directly from field samples could be a useful way to share viral genetic material. However, extracted RNA stored in aqueous solutions, even at −70 °C, is highly prone to degradation. The current study evaluated different RNA storage conditions for safety and feasibility for future use in molecular diagnostics. The in vitro RNA-transcripts obtained from an inactivated highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus was used as a model. The role of secondary structures in the protection of the RNA was also explored. Of the conditions evaluated, the dry pellet matrix was best able to protect viral RNA under extreme storage conditions. This method is safe, cost-effective and assures the integrity of RNA samples for reliable molecular diagnosis. This study aligns with the globally significant “Global One Health” paradigm, especially with respect to the diagnosis of emerging diseases that require confirmation by reference laboratories. PMID:29415432

SAMI3: The Evolution of an Ionosphere/Plasmasphere Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huba, J.

2017-12-01

The development of the Naval Research Laboratory ionosphere/plasmasphere model SAMI3 is described. The emphasis is on the challenges of building such a model and the decision making process in choosing the appropriate numerical algorithms to solve the underlying first-principles physics equations. Some of the numerical issues discussed are the numerical grid, semi-implicit and finite volume transport schemes, and flux corrected transport. These will be juxtaposed with the attendant scientific inquiries and results. Some of the physics issues highlighted are the prediction of an electron density `hole' in the topside (1500 km) equatorial ionosphere, the regional and global modeling of equatorial spread F, metal ions in the E region, and plasmaspheric plumes.

Potential impact of climate change on coffee rust over Mexico and Central America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calderon-Ezquerro, Maria del Carmen; Martinez-Lopez, Benjamin; Cabos Narvaez, William David; Sein, Dmitry

2017-04-01

In this work, some meteorological variables from a regional climate model are used to characterize the dispersion of coffee rust (a fungal disease) from Central America to Mexico, during the 20 Century. The climate model consists of the regional atmosphere model REMO coupled to the MPIOM global ocean model with increased resolution in the Atlantic Ocean. Lateral atmospheric and upper oceanic boundary conditions outside the coupled domain were prescribed using both ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalysis data. In addition to the historical simulation, a projection of the evolution of the coffee rust for the 21 Century was obtained from a REMO run using MPIESM data for the lateral forcing.

Coupled Northern Hemisphere permafrost-ice-sheet evolution over the last glacial cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willeit, M.; Ganopolski, A.

2015-09-01

Permafrost influences a number of processes which are relevant for local and global climate. For example, it is well known that permafrost plays an important role in global carbon and methane cycles. Less is known about the interaction between permafrost and ice sheets. In this study a permafrost module is included in the Earth system model CLIMBER-2, and the coupled Northern Hemisphere (NH) permafrost-ice-sheet evolution over the last glacial cycle is explored. The model performs generally well at reproducing present-day permafrost extent and thickness. Modeled permafrost thickness is sensitive to the values of ground porosity, thermal conductivity and geothermal heat flux. Permafrost extent at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) agrees well with reconstructions and previous modeling estimates. Present-day permafrost thickness is far from equilibrium over deep permafrost regions. Over central Siberia and the Arctic Archipelago permafrost is presently up to 200-500 m thicker than it would be at equilibrium. In these areas, present-day permafrost depth strongly depends on the past climate history and simulations indicate that deep permafrost has a memory of surface temperature variations going back to at least 800 ka. Over the last glacial cycle permafrost has a relatively modest impact on simulated NH ice sheet volume except at LGM, when including permafrost increases ice volume by about 15 m sea level equivalent in our model. This is explained by a delayed melting of the ice base from below by the geothermal heat flux when the ice sheet sits on a porous sediment layer and permafrost has to be melted first. Permafrost affects ice sheet dynamics only when ice extends over areas covered by thick sediments, which is the case at LGM.

Automated parameterization of intermolecular pair potentials using global optimization techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krämer, Andreas; Hülsmann, Marco; Köddermann, Thorsten; Reith, Dirk

2014-12-01

In this work, different global optimization techniques are assessed for the automated development of molecular force fields, as used in molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations. The quest of finding suitable force field parameters is treated as a mathematical minimization problem. Intricate problem characteristics such as extremely costly and even abortive simulations, noisy simulation results, and especially multiple local minima naturally lead to the use of sophisticated global optimization algorithms. Five diverse algorithms (pure random search, recursive random search, CMA-ES, differential evolution, and taboo search) are compared to our own tailor-made solution named CoSMoS. CoSMoS is an automated workflow. It models the parameters' influence on the simulation observables to detect a globally optimal set of parameters. It is shown how and why this approach is superior to other algorithms. Applied to suitable test functions and simulations for phosgene, CoSMoS effectively reduces the number of required simulations and real time for the optimization task.

Modelling of Fiber/Matrix Debonding of Composites Under Cyclic Loading

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naghipour, Paria; Pineda, Evan J.; Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Arnold, Steven M.

2013-01-01

The micromechanics theory, generalized method of cells (GMC), was employed to simulate the debonding of fiber/matrix interfaces, within a repeating unit cell subjected to global, cyclic loading, utilizing a cyclic crack growth law. Cycle dependent, interfacial debonding was implemented as a new module to the available GMC formulation. The degradation of interfacial stresses, with applied load cycles, was achieved via progressive evolution of the interfacial compliance. A periodic repeating unit cell, representing the fiber/matrix architecture of a composite, was subjected to combined normal and shear loadings, and degradation of the global transverse stress in successive cycles was monitored. The obtained results were compared to values from a corresponding finite element model. Reasonable agreement was achieved for combined normal and shear loading conditions, with minimal variation for pure loading cases. The local effects of interfacial debonding, and fatigue damage will later be combined as sub-models to predict the experimentally obtained fatigue life of Ti-15-3/Sic composites at the laminate level.

Solar Effects on Global Climate Due to Cosmic Rays and Solar Energetic Particles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turco, R. P.; Raeder, J.; DAuria, R.

2005-01-01

Although the work reported here does not directly connect solar variability with global climate change, this research establishes a plausible quantitative causative link between observed solar activity and apparently correlated variations in terrestrial climate parameters. Specifically, we have demonstrated that ion-mediated nucleation of atmospheric particles is a likely, and likely widespread, phenomenon that relates solar variability to changes in the microphysical properties of clouds. To investigate this relationship, we have constructed and applied a new model describing the formation and evolution of ionic clusters under a range of atmospheric conditions throughout the lower atmosphere. The activation of large ionic clusters into cloud nuclei is predicted to be favorable in the upper troposphere and mesosphere, and possibly in the lower stratosphere. The model developed under this grant needs to be extended to include additional cluster families, and should be incorporated into microphysical models to further test the cause-and-effect linkages that may ultimately explain key aspects of the connections between solar variability and climate.

Plasmapause Location: Model Compared to Van Allen Probes Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldstein, J.; Baker, D. N.; Blake, J. B.; Funsten, H. O.; Jaynes, A. N.; Malaspina, D.; Reeves, G. D.; Spence, H. E.; Thaller, S. A.; Wygant, J. R.

2017-12-01

We study the evolution of the plasmapause for a multi-year period (January 2013 to January 2017) spanning much of the Van Allen Probes mission, by comparing the output of a plasmapause test particle simulation with the spacecraft potential measured by the Electric Field and Waves (EFW) suite. Consistent with previous results, we quantify the accuracy of the model by measuring the radial difference between real and virtual satellite encounters with the plasmapause boundary. We find that model performance is better on the nightside and during active periods, and worse on the duskside/dayside and during extended quiet intervals. For two case studies, we compare the plasmapause with the locations of relativistic electron flux peaks. For global context we use the test particle plasmaspheric index Fp [Goldstein et al., 2016], the fraction of a circular drift orbit inside the plasmapause, as a proxy for the globally integrated opportunity for losses in cold plasma. We find an inverse relationship between relativistic flux and the Fp index, consistent with increased likelihood of losses in cold plasma.

Aerosol Mapping From Space: Strengths, Limitations, and Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahn, Ralph

2010-01-01

The aerosol data products from the NASA Earth Observing System's MISR and MODIS instruments provide significant advances in regional and global aerosol optical depth (AOD) mapping, aerosol type measurement, and source plume characterization from space. These products have been and are being used for many applications, ranging from regional air quality assessment, to aerosol air mass type identification and evolution, to wildfire smoke injection height and aerosol transport model validation. However, retrieval uncertainties and coverage gaps still limit the quantitative constraints these satellite data place on some important questions, such as global-scale long-term trends and direct aerosol radiative forcing. Major advances in these areas seem to require a different paradigm, involving the integration of satellite with suborbital data and with models. This presentation will briefly summarize where we stand, and what incremental improvements we can expect, with the current MISR and MODIS aerosol products, and will then elaborate on some initial steps aimed at the necessary integration of satellite data with data from other sources and with chemical transport models.

Helioseismology Observations of Solar Cycles and Dynamo Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosovichev, A. G.; Guerrero, G.; Pipin, V.

2017-12-01

Helioseismology observations from the SOHO and SDO, obtained in 1996-2017, provide unique insight into the dynamics of the Sun's deep interior for two solar cycles. The data allow us to investigate variations of the solar interior structure and dynamics, and compare these variations with dynamo models and simulations. We use results of the local and global helioseismology data processing pipelines at the SDO Joint Science Operations Center (Stanford University) to study solar-cycle variations of the differential rotation, meridional circulation, large-scale flows and global asphericity. By comparing the helioseismology results with the evolution of surface magnetic fields we identify characteristic changes associated the initiation and development of Solar Cycles 23 and 24. For the physical interpretation of observed variations, the results are compared with the current mean-field dynamo models and 3D MHD dynamo simulations. It is shown that the helioseismology inferences provide important constraints on the solar dynamo mechanism, may explain the fundamental difference between the two solar cycles, and also give information about the next solar cycle.

Enterprise Framework for the Disciplined Evolution of Legacy Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-10-01

out important global issues early in the planning cycle and provides insight for developing a synergistic set of management and technical practices to achieve a disciplined approach to system evolution.

Analysis of World Economic Variables Using Multidimensional Scaling

PubMed Central

Machado, J.A. Tenreiro; Mata, Maria Eugénia

2015-01-01

Waves of globalization reflect the historical technical progress and modern economic growth. The dynamics of this process are here approached using the multidimensional scaling (MDS) methodology to analyze the evolution of GDP per capita, international trade openness, life expectancy, and education tertiary enrollment in 14 countries. MDS provides the appropriate theoretical concepts and the exact mathematical tools to describe the joint evolution of these indicators of economic growth, globalization, welfare and human development of the world economy from 1977 up to 2012. The polarization dance of countries enlightens the convergence paths, potential warfare and present-day rivalries in the global geopolitical scene. PMID:25811177

Optical solitons in nematic liquid crystals: model with saturation effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borgna, Juan Pablo; Panayotaros, Panayotis; Rial, Diego; de la Vega, Constanza Sánchez F.

2018-04-01

We study a 2D system that couples a Schrödinger evolution equation to a nonlinear elliptic equation and models the propagation of a laser beam in a nematic liquid crystal. The nonlinear elliptic equation describes the response of the director angle to the laser beam electric field. We obtain results on well-posedness and solitary wave solutions of this system, generalizing results for a well-studied simpler system with a linear elliptic equation for the director field. The analysis of the nonlinear elliptic problem shows the existence of an isolated global branch of solutions with director angles that remain bounded for arbitrary electric field. The results on the director equation are also used to show local and global existence, as well as decay for initial conditions with sufficiently small L 2-norm. For sufficiently large L 2-norm we show the existence of energy minimizing optical solitons with radial, positive and monotone profiles.

Impact of a star formation efficiency profile on the evolution of open clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukirgaliyev, B.; Parmentier, G.; Berczik, P.; Just, A.

2017-09-01

Aims: We study the effect of the instantaneous expulsion of residual star-forming gas on star clusters in which the residual gas has a density profile that is shallower than that of the embedded cluster. This configuration is expected if star formation proceeds with a given star-formation efficiency per free-fall time in a centrally concentrated molecular gas clump. Methods: We performed direct N-body simulations whose initial conditions were generated by the program "mkhalo" from the package "falcON", adapted for our models. Our model clusters initially had a Plummer profile and are in virial equilibrium with the gravitational potential of the cluster-forming clump. The residual gas contribution was computed based on a local-density driven clustered star formation model. Our simulations included mass loss by stellar evolution and the tidal field of a host galaxy. Results: We find that a star cluster with a minimum global star formation efficiency (SFE) of 15 percent is able to survive instantaneous gas expulsion and to produce a bound cluster. Its violent relaxation lasts no longer than 20 Myr, independently of its global SFE and initial stellar mass. At the end of violent relaxation, the bound fractions of the surviving clusters with the same global SFEs are similar, regardless of their initial stellar mass. Their subsequent lifetime in the gravitational field of the Galaxy depends on their bound stellar masses. Conclusions: We therefore conclude that the critical SFE needed to produce a bound cluster is 15 percent, which is roughly half the earlier estimates of 33 percent. Thus we have improved the survival likelihood of young clusters after instantaneous gas expulsion. Young clusters can now survive instantaneous gas expulsion with a global SFEs as low as the SFEs observed for embedded clusters in the solar neighborhood (15-30 percent). The reason is that the star cluster density profile is steeper than that of the residual gas. However, in terms of the effective SFE, measured by the virial ratio of the cluster at gas expulsion, our results are in agreement with previous studies.

Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets

PubMed Central

Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

2015-01-01

Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951–1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as “extremely hot”. The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by “extremely hot” summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low. PMID:26090931

Importance of flexure in response to sedimentation and erosion along the US Atlantic passive margin in reconciling sea level change and paleoshorelines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moucha, R.; Ruetenik, G.; de Boer, B.

2017-12-01

Reconciling elevations of paleoshorelines along the US Atlantic passive margin with estimates of eustatic sea level have long posed to be a challenge. Discrepancies between shoreline elevation and sea level have been attributed to combinations of tectonics, glacial isostatic adjustment, mantle convection, gravitation and/or errors, for example, in the inference of eustatic sea level from the marine 18O record. Herein we present a numerical model of landscape evolution combined with sea level change and solid Earth deformations to demonstrate the importance of flexural effects in response to erosion and sedimentation along the US Atlantic passive margin. We quantify these effects using two different temporal models. One reconciles the Orangeburg scarp, a well-documented 3.5 million-year-old mid-Pliocene shoreline, with a 15 m mid-Pliocene sea level above present-day (Moucha and Ruetenik, 2017). The other model focuses on the evolution of the South Carolina and northern Georgia margin since MIS 11 ( 400 Ka) using a fully coupled ice sheet, sea level and solid Earth model (de Boer et al, 2014) while relating our results to a series of enigmatic sea level high stand markers. de Boer, B., Stocci, P., and van de Wal, R. (2014). A fully coupled 3-d ice-sheet-sea-level model: algorithm and applications. Geoscientific Model Development, 7:2141-2156. Moucha, R. and Ruetenik, G. A. (2017). Interplay between dynamic topography and flexure along the US Atlantic passive margin: Insights from landscape evolution modeling. Global and Planetary Change, 149: 72-78

Global simulation of formation and evolution of plasmoid and flux-rope in the Earth's Magnetotail

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Y.; Raeder, J.; Du, A.

2014-12-01

The observation of plasmoids and flux-ropes in the Earth's magnetotail was crucial to establish the simultaneous presence of multiple x-lines in the tail, and has become the basis for the Near Earth Neutral Line (NENL) model of substorms. While the "classical" NENL model envisions x-lines that extend across the entire tail, recent observations have shown that neither do the x-lines and resulting plasmoids encompass the entire tail, nor do the x-lines have to lie along the y-axis. The fragmentation of the tail by spatially and temporally limited x-lines has important consequences for the mass and energy budget of the tail. Recent ARTEMIS observations have shown that the plasmoids in the distant tail are limited in the Y direction and some flux ropes are tilted during their tailward propagation. Understanding their formation and evolution during their propagation through the magnetotail shall shred more light on the general energy and flux transport of the Earth's magnetosphere. In this study we simulate plasmoids and flux-ropes in the Earth's magnetotail using the Open Global Geospace Circulation Model (OpenGGCM). We investigate the generation mechanisms for tail plasmoids and flux-ropes and their evolution as they propagate in the magnetotail. The simulation results show that the limited extend of NENL controls the length or the Y scale of tail plasmoid and flux rope. In addition, by studying their 3D magnetic topology we find that the tilted flux rope forms due to a progressive spreading of reconnection line along the east-west direction, which produces and releases two ends of the flux rope at different times and in different speeds. By constructing a catalogue of observational signatures of plasmoid and flux rope we compare the differences of their signatures and find that large-scale plasmoids have much weaker core fields than that inside the small-scale flux ropes.

Plants, Weathering, and the Evolution of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Oxygen

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Berner, Robert A

Over the past six years we have published 24 papers that can be divided into three sections: (1) Study of plants and weathering, (2) modeling the evolution of atmospheric CO2 over Phanerozoic time (past 550 million years). (3) Modeling of atmospheric O2 over Phanerozoic time. References to papers published acknowledging this grant can be found at the end of this report and almost all are supplied in pdf form. (1) In the temperate forests of the Cascade Mountains, USA, calcium and magnesium meet vastly different fates beneath angiosperms vs gymnosperms. Calcium is leached beneath both groves of trees, but leachedmore » 20-40% more beneath the angiosperms. Magnesium is retained in the forest system beneath the angiosperms and leached from beneath the gymnosperms. (2) We have shown that climate and CO2, based on both carbon cycle modeling and hundreds of independent proxies for paleo-CO2, correlate very well over the past 550 million year. In a recent paper we use this correlation to deduce the sensitivity of global mean temperature to a doubling of atmospheric CO2, and results are in excellent agreement with the results of climatologists based on the historical record and on theoretical climate models (GCM’s).(3) We have shown that concentrations of atmospheric oxygen, calculated by a combined carbon-sulfur cycle model, over the past 550 million years have varied with and influenced biological evolution.« less

The identification of complete domains within protein sequences using accurate E-values for semi-global alignment

PubMed Central

Kann, Maricel G.; Sheetlin, Sergey L.; Park, Yonil; Bryant, Stephen H.; Spouge, John L.

2007-01-01

The sequencing of complete genomes has created a pressing need for automated annotation of gene function. Because domains are the basic units of protein function and evolution, a gene can be annotated from a domain database by aligning domains to the corresponding protein sequence. Ideally, complete domains are aligned to protein subsequences, in a ‘semi-global alignment’. Local alignment, which aligns pieces of domains to subsequences, is common in high-throughput annotation applications, however. It is a mature technique, with the heuristics and accurate E-values required for screening large databases and evaluating the screening results. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) provide an alternative theoretical framework for semi-global alignment, but their use is limited because they lack heuristic acceleration and accurate E-values. Our new tool, GLOBAL, overcomes some limitations of previous semi-global HMMs: it has accurate E-values and the possibility of the heuristic acceleration required for high-throughput applications. Moreover, according to a standard of truth based on protein structure, two semi-global HMM alignment tools (GLOBAL and HMMer) had comparable performance in identifying complete domains, but distinctly outperformed two tools based on local alignment. When searching for complete protein domains, therefore, GLOBAL avoids disadvantages commonly associated with HMMs, yet maintains their superior retrieval performance. PMID:17596268

Tropical Warm Semi-Arid Regions Expanding Over Temperate Latitudes In The Projected 21st Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajaud, A.; de Noblet, N. I.

2015-12-01

Two billion people today live in drylands, where extreme climatic conditions prevail, and natural resources are limited. Drylands are expected to expand under several scenarios of climatic change. However, relevant adaptation strategies need to account for the aridity level: it conditions the equilibrium tree-cover density, ranging from deserts (hyper-arid) to dense savannas (sub-humid). Here we focus on the evolution of climatically defined warm semi-arid areas, where low-tree density covers can be maintained. We study the global repartition of these regions in the future and the bioclimatic shifts involved. We adopted a bioclimatological approach based on the Köppen climate classification. The warm semi-arid class is characterized by mean annual temperatures over 18°C and a rainfall-limitation criterion. A multi-model ensemble of CMIP5 projections for three representative concentration pathways was selected to analyze future conditions. The classification was first applied to the start, middle and end of the 20th and 21st centuries, in order to localize past and future warm semi-arid regions. Then, time-series for the classification were built to characterize trends and variability in the evolution of those regions. According to the CRU datasets, global expansion of the warm semi-arid area has already started (~+13%), following the global warming trend since the 1900s. This will continue according to all projections, most significantly so outside the tropical belt. Under the "business as usual" scenario, the global warm semi-arid area will increase by 30% and expand 12° poleward in the Northern Hemisphere, according to the multi-model mean. Drying drives the conversion from equatorial sub-humid conditions. Beyond 30° of latitude, cold semi-arid conditions become warm semi-arid through warming, and temperate conditions through combined warming and drying processes. Those various transitions may have drastic but also very distinct ecological and sociological impacts.

Development and validation of a wear model for the analysis of the wheel profile evolution in railway vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auciello, J.; Ignesti, M.; Malvezzi, M.; Meli, E.; Rindi, A.

2012-11-01

The numerical wheel wear prediction in railway applications is of great importance for different aspects, such as the safety against vehicle instability and derailment, the planning of wheelset maintenance interventions and the design of an optimal wheel profile from the wear point of view. For these reasons, this paper presents a complete model aimed at the evaluation of the wheel wear and the wheel profile evolution by means of dynamic simulations, organised in two parts which interact with each other mutually: a vehicle's dynamic model and a model for the wear estimation. The first is a 3D multibody model of a railway vehicle implemented in SIMPACK™, a commercial software for the analysis of mechanical systems, where the wheel-rail interaction is entrusted to a C/C++user routine external to SIMPACK, in which the global contact model is implemented. In this regard, the research on the contact points between the wheel and the rail is based on an innovative algorithm developed by the authors in previous works, while normal and tangential forces in the contact patches are calculated according to Hertz's theory and Kalker's global theory, respectively. Due to the numerical efficiency of the global contact model, the multibody vehicle and the contact model interact directly online during the dynamic simulations. The second is the wear model, written in the MATLAB® environment, mainly based on an experimental relationship between the frictional power developed at the wheel-rail interface and the amount of material removed by wear. Starting from a few outputs of the multibody simulations (position of contact points, contact forces and rigid creepages), it evaluates the local variables, such as the contact pressures and local creepages, using a local contact model (Kalker's FASTSIM algorithm). These data are then passed to another subsystem which evaluates, by means of the considered experimental relationship, both the material to be removed and its distribution along the wheel profile, obtaining the correspondent worn wheel geometry. The wheel wear evolution is reproduced by dividing the overall chosen mileage to be simulated in discrete spatial steps: at each step, the dynamic simulations are performed by means of the 3D multibody model keeping the wheel profile constant, while the wheel geometry is updated through the wear model only at the end of the discrete step. Thus, the two parts of the whole model work alternately until the completion of the whole established mileage. Clearly, the choice of an appropriate step length is one of the most important aspects of the procedure and it directly affects the result accuracy and the required computational time to complete the analysis. The whole model has been validated using experimental data relative to tests performed with the ALn 501 'Minuetto' vehicle in service on the Aosta-Pre Saint Didier track; this work has been carried out thanks to a collaboration with Trenitalia S.p.A and Rete Ferroviaria Italiana, which have provided the necessary technical data and experimental results.

Thermal control design of the Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tsuyuki, G. T.; Lee, S. C.

2001-01-01

This paper describes the thermal control design of GALEX, an ultraviolet telescope that investigates the UV properties of local galaxies, history of star formation, and global causes of star formation and evolution.

Role of the Insect Supervectors Bemisia tabaci and Frankliniella occidentalis in the Emergence and Global Spread of Plant Viruses.

PubMed

Gilbertson, Robert L; Batuman, Ozgur; Webster, Craig G; Adkins, Scott

2015-11-01

Emergence of insect-transmitted plant viruses over the past 10-20 years has been disproportionately driven by two so-called supervectors: the whitefly, Bemisia tabaci, and the Western flower thrips, Frankliniella occidentalis. High rates of reproduction and dispersal, extreme polyphagy, and development of insecticide resistance, together with human activities, have made these insects global pests. These supervectors transmit a diversity of plant viruses by different mechanisms and mediate virus emergence through local evolution, host shifts, mixed infections, and global spread. Associated virus evolution involves reassortment, recombination, and component capture. Emergence of B. tabaci-transmitted geminiviruses (begomoviruses), ipomoviruses, and torradoviruses has led to global disease outbreaks as well as multiple paradigm shifts. Similarly, F. occidentalis has mediated tospovirus host shifts and global dissemination and the emergence of pollen-transmitted ilarviruses. The plant virus-supervector interaction offers exciting opportunities for basic research and global implementation of generalized disease management strategies to reduce economic and environmental impacts.

CICE, The Los Alamos Sea Ice Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunke, Elizabeth; Lipscomb, William; Jones, Philip

The Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) is the result of an effort to develop a computationally efficient sea ice component for a fully coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–ice global climate model. It was originally designed to be compatible with the Parallel Ocean Program (POP), an ocean circulation model developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory for use on massively parallel computers. CICE has several interacting components: a vertical thermodynamic model that computes local growth rates of snow and ice due to vertical conductive, radiative and turbulent fluxes, along with snowfall; an elastic-viscous-plastic model of ice dynamics, which predicts the velocity field of themore » ice pack based on a model of the material strength of the ice; an incremental remapping transport model that describes horizontal advection of the areal concentration, ice and snow volume and other state variables; and a ridging parameterization that transfers ice among thickness categories based on energetic balances and rates of strain. It also includes a biogeochemical model that describes evolution of the ice ecosystem. The CICE sea ice model is used for climate research as one component of complex global earth system models that include atmosphere, land, ocean and biogeochemistry components. It is also used for operational sea ice forecasting in the polar regions and in numerical weather prediction models.« less

Venus geology, geochemistry, and geophysics - Research results from the USSR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barsukov, V. L.; Basilevsky, A. T.; Volkov, V. P.; Zharkov, V. N.

The book includes papers on the Venusian volcanism, hot-spot structures, the Lakshmi phenomenon, tesserae, ridge belts on plains, impact craters, evidence on the crustal dichotomy, the global tectonic style, resurfacing, and Venusian igneous rocks. Special attention is given to volatiles in the atmosphere and crust, the expansion of topography into spherical harmonics, rotation, statistical properties of topography and the gravity field, a physical model of Venus, and models of the thermal evolution of Venus. Also presented are an atlas of Venusian surface images and a table listing topographic features on Venus and their coordinates.

Global transport of atmospheric smoke following a major nuclear exchange

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haberle, R. M.; Ackerman, T. P.; Toon, O. B.; Hollingsworth, J. L.

1985-01-01

A fully interactive zonally symmetric general circulation model is used to simulate the transport and evolution of a massive smoke cloud that is likely to form in the atmosphere following a major nuclear war. The presence of such a cloud significantly alters the simulated circulation and the subsequent transport of the smoke particles themselves. While the model indicates a tendency for interhemispheric exchange, the most immediate effect is that the radiatively active particles are carried into the stratosphere by the generation of strong vertical motions and intense convection regardless of their initial injection altitudes.

Global transport of atmospheric smoke following a major nuclear exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haberle, Robert M.; Ackerman, Thomas P.; Toon, Owen B.; Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.

A fully interactive zonally symmetric general circulation model is used to simulate the transport and evolution of a massive smoke cloud that is likely to form in the atmosphere following a major nuclear war. The presence of such a cloud significantly alters the simulated circulation and the subsequent transport of the smoke particles themselves. While the model indicates a tendency for interhemispheric exchange, the most immediate effect is that the radiatively active particles are carried into the stratosphere by the generation of strong vertical motions and intense convection regardless of their initial injection altitudes.

The Global Drivers of Photosynthesis and Light Use Efficiency Seasonality: A Granger Frequency Causality Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemani, Ramakrishna R.

2016-01-01

Photosynthesis and light use efficiency (LUE) are major factors in the evolution of the continental carbon cycle due to their contribution to gross primary production (GPP). However, while the drivers of photosynthesis and LUE on a plant or canopy scale can often be identified, significant uncertainties exist when modeling these on a global scale. This is due to sparse observations in regions such as the tropics and the lack of a direct global observation dataset. Although others have attempted to address this issue using correlations (Beer, 2010) or calculating GPP from vegetation indices (Running, 2004), in this study we take a new approach. We combine the statistical method of Granger frequency causality and partial Granger frequency causality with remote sensing data products (including sun-induced fluorescence used as a proxy for GPP) to determine the main environmental drivers of GPP across the globe.

Evolution of anthropogenic emissions at the global and regional scale during the past three decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Granier, C.; Bessagnet, B. B.; Bond, T. C.; D'Angiola, A.; Denier van der Gon, H.; Frost, G. J.; Heil, A.; Kaiser, J.; Kinne, S. A.; Klimont, Z.; Kloster, S.; Lamarque, J.; Liousse, C.; Masui, T.; Meleux, F.; Mieville, A.; Ohara, T.; Raut, J.; Riahi, K.; Schultz, M. G.; Smith, S.; Thomson, A. M.; van Aardenne, J.; van der Werf, G.; van Vuuren, D.

2010-12-01

The knowledge of the distributions of surface emissions of gases and aerosols is essential for an accurate modeling and analysis of the distribution and evolution of the concentration of gaseous and particulate chemical species. The quantification of surface fluxes by source of origin is furthermore central to the assessment of effects and the development of control measures. Over the past few years, different ranges of emission fluxes have been proposed by several studies, which have provided emissions at different spatial and temporal scales. We have compared the emissions of several chemical compounds, i.e. carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and black carbon, as provided by global and regional emissions inventories in different regions of the world for the past thirty years. The presentation will focus on the United States, Europe and China. Significant differences between the datasets providing emissions in these regions have been identified, reaching for example 60% and 35% for anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides in both regions, respectively. We will assess the current uncertainties on surface emissions and their recent trends. This analysis is often hindered because of differences in base years and in species considered in the different datasets. Current work aiming at compiling comparable metrics for such species for the analysis of regional and global emission datasets will be discussed.

Publishing in open access era: focus on respiratory journals

PubMed Central

Xu, Dingyao; Zhong, Xiyao; Li, Li; Ling, Qibo; Bu, Zhaode

2014-01-01

We have entered an open access publishing era. The impact and significance of open access is still under debate after two decades of evolution. Open access journals benefit researchers and the general public by promoting visibility, sharing and communicating. Non-mainstream journals should turn the challenge of open access into opportunity of presenting best research articles to the global readership. Open access journals need to optimize their business models to promote the healthy and continuous development. PMID:24822120

Complex hybrid inflation and baryogenesis.

PubMed

Delepine, David; Martínez, Carlos; Ureña-López, L Arturo

2007-04-20

We propose a hybrid inflation model with a complex waterfall field which contains an interaction term that breaks the U(1) global symmetry associated with the waterfall field charge. We show that the asymmetric evolution of the real and imaginary parts of the complex field during the phase transition at the end of inflation translates into a charge asymmetry. The latter strongly depends on the vacuum expectation value of the waterfall field, which is well constrained by diverse cosmological observations.

Multi-scale Predictability with a New Coupled Non-hydrostatic Global Model over the Arctic Annual Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

tropopause polar vortices, which are prevalent circulation features over the Arctic that play a major role in the evolution of surface pressure anomalies...pressure and tropospheric circulation anomalies and will allow us to answer specific questions regarding its ability to reproduce the appropriate AO... circulation patterns (Fig. 1c). While the mean patterns are favorable regarding the ability of MPAS to encapsulate the overall patterns of these two

Publishing in open access era: focus on respiratory journals.

PubMed

Dai, Ni; Xu, Dingyao; Zhong, Xiyao; Li, Li; Ling, Qibo; Bu, Zhaode

2014-05-01

We have entered an open access publishing era. The impact and significance of open access is still under debate after two decades of evolution. Open access journals benefit researchers and the general public by promoting visibility, sharing and communicating. Non-mainstream journals should turn the challenge of open access into opportunity of presenting best research articles to the global readership. Open access journals need to optimize their business models to promote the healthy and continuous development.

The Global Perspective on the Evolution of Solids in a Protoplanetary Disk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stepinski, T. F.; Valageas, P.

1996-01-01

It is currently thought that planets around solar-type stars form by the accumulation of solid matter entrained in a gaseous, turbulent protoplanetary disk. We have developed a model designed to simulate the part of this process that starts from small particles suspended in the gaseous disk at the end of the formation stage, and ends up with most of the solid material aggregated into 1-10-km planetesimals. The major novelty of our approach is its emphasis on the global, comprehensive treatment of the problem, as our model simultaneously keeps track of the evolution of gas and solid particles due to gas-solid coupling, coagulation, sedimentation, and evaporation/condensation. The result of our calculations is the radial distribution of solid material circumnavigating a star in the form of a planetesimal swarm. Such a distribution should well approximate the radial apportionment of condensed components of the planets spread over the radial extent of the mature planetary system. Therefore we view our calculations as an attempt to predict the large-scale architecture of planetary systems and to assess their potential diversity. In particular, we have found that some initial conditions lead to all solids being lost to the star, but we can also identify initial conditions leading to a radial distribution of solid material quite reminiscent of what is found in our solar system.

ULF wave analysis and radial diffusion calculation using a global MHD model for the 17 March 2013 and 2015 storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhao; Hudson, Mary; Patel, Maulik; Wiltberger, Michael; Boyd, Alex; Turner, Drew

2017-07-01

The 17 March 2015 St. Patrick's Day Storm is the largest geomagnetic storm to date of Solar Cycle 24, with a Dst of -223 nT. The magnetopause moved inside geosynchronous orbit under high solar wind dynamic pressure and strong southward interplanetary magnetic field Bz causing loss; however, a subsequent drop in pressure allowed for rapid rebuilding of the radiation belts. The 17 March 2013 storm also shows similar effects on outer zone electrons: first, a rapid dropout due to inward motion of the magnetopause followed by rapid increase in flux above the prestorm level early in the recovery phase and a slow increase over the next 12 days. These phases can be seen in temporal evolution of the electron phase space density measured by the Energetic Particle, Composition, and Thermal Plasma Suite (ECT) instruments on Van Allen Probes. Using the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry global MHD model driven by upstream solar wind measurements, we simulated both St. Patrick's Day 2013 and 2015 events, analyzing Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry electric and magnetic fields to calculate radial diffusion coefficients. These coefficients have been implemented in a radial diffusion code, using the measured electron phase space density following the local heating as the initial radial profile and outer boundary condition for subsequent temporal evolution over the next 12 days, beginning 18 March. Agreement with electron phase space density at 1000 MeV/G measured by the MagEIS component of the ECT instrument suite on Van Allen Probes was much improved using radial diffusion coefficients from the MHD simulations relative to coefficients parameterized by a global geomagnetic activity index.

A Comparison of Parameterizations of Secondary Organic Aerosol Production: Global Budget and Spatiotemporal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, J.; Chen, Z.; Horowitz, L. W.; Carlton, A. M. G.; Fan, S.; Cheng, Y.; Ervens, B.; Fu, T. M.; He, C.; Tao, S.

2014-12-01

Secondary organic aerosols (SOA) have a profound influence on air quality and climate, but large uncertainties exist in modeling SOA on the global scale. In this study, five SOA parameterization schemes, including a two-product model (TPM), volatility basis-set (VBS) and three cloud SOA schemes (Ervens et al. (2008, 2014), Fu et al. (2008) , and He et al. (2013)), are implemented into the global chemical transport model (MOZART-4). For each scheme, model simulations are conducted with identical boundary and initial conditions. The VBS scheme produces the highest global annual SOA production (close to 35 Tg·y-1), followed by three cloud schemes (26-30 Tg·y-1) and TPM (23 Tg·y-1). Though sharing a similar partitioning theory to the TPM scheme, the VBS approach simulates the chemical aging of multiple generations of VOCs oxidation products, resulting in a much larger SOA source, particularly from aromatic species, over Europe, the Middle East and Eastern America. The formation of SOA in VBS, which represents the net partitioning of semi-volatile organic compounds from vapor to condensed phase, is highly sensitivity to the aging and wet removal processes of vapor-phase organic compounds. The production of SOA from cloud processes (SOAcld) is constrained by the coincidence of liquid cloud water and water-soluble organic compounds. Therefore, all cloud schemes resolve a fairly similar spatial pattern over the tropical and the mid-latitude continents. The spatiotemporal diversity among SOA parameterizations is largely driven by differences in precursor inputs. Therefore, a deeper understanding of the evolution, wet removal, and phase partitioning of semi-volatile organic compounds, particularly above remote land and oceanic areas, is critical to better constrain the global-scale distribution and related climate forcing of secondary organic aerosols.

Thermal design and test verification of GALAXY evolution explorer (GALEX)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, P. S.; Lee, S. -C.

2002-01-01

This paper describes the thermal control design of GALEX, an ultraviolet telescope that investigates the UV properties of local galaxies, history of star formation, and global causes of star formation and evolution.

Telecommunications systems evolution for Mars Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noreen, Gary; De Paula, Ramon P.; Edwards, Charles D. Jr; Komarek, Thomas; Edwards, Bernard L.; Edwards, Bernard L.; Kerridge, Stuart J.; Diehl, Roger; Franklin, Stephen F.

2003-01-01

This paper describes the evolution of telecommunication systems at Mars. It reviews the telecommunications capabilities, technology and limiting factors of current and planned Mars orbiters from Mars Global Surveyor to the planned Mars Telecommunications Orbiter (MTO).

Gravitational Lenses and the Structure and Evolution of Galaxies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oliversen, Ronald J. (Technical Monitor); Kochanek, Christopher

2004-01-01

During the first year of the project we completed five papers, each of which represents a new direction in the theory and interpretation of gravitational lenses. In the first paper, The Importance of Einstein Rings, we developed the first theory for the formation and structure of the Einstein rings formed by lensing extended sources like the host galaxies of quasar and radio sources. In the second paper, Cusped Mass Models Of Gravitational Lenses, we introduced a new class of lens models. In the third paper, Global Probes of the Impact of Baryons on Dark Matter Halos, we made the first globally consistent models for the separation distribution of gravitational lenses including both galaxy and cluster lenses. The last two papers explore the properties of two lenses in detail. During the second year we have focused more closely on the relationship of baryons and dark matter. In the third year we have been further examining the relationship between baryons and dark matter. In the present year we extended our statistical analysis of lens mass distributions using a self-similar model for the halo mass distribution as compared to the luminous galaxy.

Diverse landscapes beneath Pine Island Glacier influence ice flow.

PubMed

Bingham, Robert G; Vaughan, David G; King, Edward C; Davies, Damon; Cornford, Stephen L; Smith, Andrew M; Arthern, Robert J; Brisbourne, Alex M; De Rydt, Jan; Graham, Alastair G C; Spagnolo, Matteo; Marsh, Oliver J; Shean, David E

2017-11-20

The retreating Pine Island Glacier (PIG), West Antarctica, presently contributes ~5-10% of global sea-level rise. PIG's retreat rate has increased in recent decades with associated thinning migrating upstream into tributaries feeding the main glacier trunk. To project future change requires modelling that includes robust parameterisation of basal traction, the resistance to ice flow at the bed. However, most ice-sheet models estimate basal traction from satellite-derived surface velocity, without a priori knowledge of the key processes from which it is derived, namely friction at the ice-bed interface and form drag, and the resistance to ice flow that arises as ice deforms to negotiate bed topography. Here, we present high-resolution maps, acquired using ice-penetrating radar, of the bed topography across parts of PIG. Contrary to lower-resolution data currently used for ice-sheet models, these data show a contrasting topography across the ice-bed interface. We show that these diverse subglacial landscapes have an impact on ice flow, and present a challenge for modelling ice-sheet evolution and projecting global sea-level rise from ice-sheet loss.

Exploring the Mass Balance and Sea Level Contribution of Global Glaciers During the Last Interglaciation and Mid-Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, S.; Ullman, D. J.; He, F.; Carlson, A. E.; Marzeion, B.; Maussion, F.

2017-12-01

Understanding the behavior of the world's glaciers during previous interglaciations is key to interpreting the sensitivity and behavior of the cryosphere under scenarios of future anthropogenic warming. Previous studies of the Last Interglaciation (LIG, 130 ka to 116 ka) indicate elevated global temperatures and higher sea levels than the Holocene, but most assessments of the impact on the cryosphere have focused on the mass balance and volume change of polar ice sheets. In assessing sea-level sources, most studies assume complete deglacation of global glaciers, but this has yet to be tested. In addition, the significant changes in orbital forcing during the LIG and the associated impacts on climate seasonality and variability may have led to unique glacier evolution.Here, we explore the effect of LIG climate on the global glacier budget. We employ the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), forced by simulated LIG equilibrium climate anomalies (127 ka) from the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). OGGM is a glacier mass balance and dynamics model, specifically designed to reconstruct global glacier volume change. Our simulations have been conducted in an equilibrium state to determine the effect of the prolonged climate forcing of the LIG. Due to unknown flow characteristics of glaciers during the LIG, we explore the parametric uncertainty in the mass balance and flow sensitivity parameters. As a point of comparison, we also conduct a series of simulations using forcing anomalies from the CCSM3 mid-Holocene (6 ka) experiment. Results from both experiments show that glacier mass balance is highly sensitive to these sensitivity parameters, pointing at the need for glacier margin calibration for OGGM in paleoclimate applications.

Reconciling Land-Ocean Moisture Transport Variability in Reanalyses with P-ET in Observationally-Driven Land Surface Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Roberts, Jason B.

2016-01-01

Vertically integrated atmospheric moisture transport from ocean to land [vertically integrated atmospheric moisture flux convergence (VMFC)] is a dynamic component of the global climate system but remains problematic in atmospheric reanalyses, with current estimates having significant multidecadal global trends differing even in sign. Continual evolution of the global observing system, particularly stepwise improvements in satellite observations, has introduced discrete changes in the ability of data assimilation to correct systematic model biases, manifesting as nonphysical variability. Land surface models (LSMs) forced with observed precipitation P and near-surface meteorology and radiation provide estimates of evapotranspiration (ET). Since variability of atmospheric moisture storage is small on interannual and longer time scales, VMFC equals P minus ET is a good approximation and LSMs can provide an alternative estimate. However, heterogeneous density of rain gauge coverage, especially the sparse coverage over tropical continents, remains a serious concern. Rotated principal component analysis (RPCA) with prefiltering of VMFC to isolate the artificial variability is used to investigate artifacts in five reanalysis systems. This procedure, although ad hoc, enables useful VMFC corrections over global land. The P minus ET estimates from seven different LSMs are evaluated and subsequently used to confirm the efficacy of the RPCA-based adjustments. Global VMFC trends over the period 1979-2012 ranging from 0.07 to minus 0.03 millimeters per day per decade are reduced by the adjustments to 0.016 millimeters per day per decade, much closer to the LSM P minus ET estimate (0.007 millimeters per day per decade). Neither is significant at the 90 percent level. ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation)-related modulation of VMFC and P minus ET remains the largest global interannual signal, with mean LSM and adjusted reanalysis time series correlating at 0.86.

Using Star Clusters as Tracers of Star Formation and Chemical Evolution: The Chemical Enrichment History of the Large Magellanic Cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chilingarian, Igor V.; Asa’d, Randa

2018-05-01

The star formation (SFH) and chemical enrichment (CEH) histories of Local Group galaxies are traditionally studied by analyzing their resolved stellar populations in a form of color–magnitude diagrams obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope. Star clusters can be studied in integrated light using ground-based telescopes to much larger distances. They represent snapshots of the chemical evolution of their host galaxy at different ages. Here we present a simple theoretical framework for the chemical evolution based on the instantaneous recycling approximation (IRA) model. We infer a CEH from an SFH and vice versa using observational data. We also present a more advanced model for the evolution of individual chemical elements that takes into account the contribution of supernovae type Ia. We demonstrate that ages, iron, and α-element abundances of 15 star clusters derived from the fitting of their integrated optical spectra reliably trace the CEH of the Large Magellanic Cloud obtained from resolved stellar populations in the age range 40 Myr < t < 3.5 Gyr. The CEH predicted by our model from the global SFH of the LMC agrees remarkably well with the observed cluster age–metallicity relation. Moreover, the present-day total gas mass of the LMC estimated by the IRA model (6.2× {10}8 {M}ȯ ) matches within uncertainties the observed H I mass corrected for the presence of molecular gas (5.8+/- 0.5× {10}8 {M}ȯ ). We briefly discuss how our approach can be used to study SFHs of galaxies as distant as 10 Mpc at the level of detail that is currently available only in a handful of nearby Milky Way satellites. .

How does non-linear dynamics affect the baryon acoustic oscillation?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sugiyama, Naonori S.; Spergel, David N., E-mail: nao.s.sugiyama@gmail.com, E-mail: dns@astro.princeton.edu

2014-02-01

We study the non-linear behavior of the baryon acoustic oscillation in the power spectrum and the correlation function by decomposing the dark matter perturbations into the short- and long-wavelength modes. The evolution of the dark matter fluctuations can be described as a global coordinate transformation caused by the long-wavelength displacement vector acting on short-wavelength matter perturbation undergoing non-linear growth. Using this feature, we investigate the well known cancellation of the high-k solutions in the standard perturbation theory. While the standard perturbation theory naturally satisfies the cancellation of the high-k solutions, some of the recently proposed improved perturbation theories do notmore » guarantee the cancellation. We show that this cancellation clarifies the success of the standard perturbation theory at the 2-loop order in describing the amplitude of the non-linear power spectrum even at high-k regions. We propose an extension of the standard 2-loop level perturbation theory model of the non-linear power spectrum that more accurately models the non-linear evolution of the baryon acoustic oscillation than the standard perturbation theory. The model consists of simple and intuitive parts: the non-linear evolution of the smoothed power spectrum without the baryon acoustic oscillations and the non-linear evolution of the baryon acoustic oscillations due to the large-scale velocity of dark matter and due to the gravitational attraction between dark matter particles. Our extended model predicts the smoothing parameter of the baryon acoustic oscillation peak at z = 0.35 as ∼ 7.7Mpc/h and describes the small non-linear shift in the peak position due to the galaxy random motions.« less

Evolution of protoplanetary discs with magnetically driven disc winds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Takeru K.; Ogihara, Masahiro; Morbidelli, Alessandro; Crida, Aurélien; Guillot, Tristan

2016-12-01

Aims: We investigate the evolution of protoplanetary discs (PPDs) with magnetically driven disc winds and viscous heating. Methods: We considered an initially massive disc with 0.1 M⊙ to track the evolution from the early stage of PPDs. We solved the time evolution of surface density and temperature by taking into account viscous heating and the loss of mass and angular momentum by the disc winds within the framework of a standard α model for accretion discs. Our model parameters, turbulent viscosity, disc wind mass-loss, and disc wind torque, which were adopted from local magnetohydrodynamical simulations and constrained by the global energetics of the gravitational accretion, largely depends on the physical condition of PPDs, particularly on the evolution of the vertical magnetic flux in weakly ionized PPDs. Results: Although there are still uncertainties concerning the evolution of the vertical magnetic flux that remains, the surface densities show a large variety, depending on the combination of these three parameters, some of which are very different from the surface density expected from the standard accretion. When a PPD is in a wind-driven accretion state with the preserved vertical magnetic field, the radial dependence of the surface density can be positive in the inner region <1-10 au. The mass accretion rates are consistent with observations, even in the very low level of magnetohydrodynamical turbulence. Such a positive radial slope of the surface density strongly affects planet formation because it inhibits the inward drift or even causes the outward drift of pebble- to boulder-sized solid bodies, and it also slows down or even reversed the inward type-I migration of protoplanets. Conclusions: The variety of our calculated PPDs should yield a wide variety of exoplanet systems.

Superposed epoch analysis of ion temperatures during CME- and CIR/HSS-driven storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keesee, A. M.; Scime, E. E.

2012-12-01

The NASA Two Wide-angle Imaging Neutral atom Spectrometers (TWINS) Mission provides a global view of the magnetosphere with near-continuous coverage. Utilizing a novel technique to calculate ion temperatures from the TWINS energetic neutral atom (ENA) measurements, we generate ion temperature maps of the magnetosphere. These maps can be used to study ion temperature evolution during geomagnetic storms. A superposed epoch analysis of the ion temperature evolution during 48 storms will be presented. Zaniewski et al. [2006] performed a superposed epoch analysis of ion temperatures by storm interval using data from the MENA instrument on the IMAGE mission, demonstrating significant dayside ion heating during the main phase. The TWINS measurements provide more continuous coverage and improved spatial and temporal resolution. Denton and Borovsky [2008] noted differences in ion temperature evolution at geosynchronous orbit between coronal mass ejection (CME)- and corotating interaction region (CIR)/high speed stream (HSS)- driven storms. Using our global ion temperature maps, we have found consistent results for select individual storms [Keesee et al., 2012]. We will present superposed epoch analyses for the subgroups of CME- and CIR/HSS-driven storms to compare global ion temperature evolution during the two types of storms.

Social influence on selection behaviour: Distinguishing local- and global-driven preferential attachment

PubMed Central

Pan, Xue; Liu, Kecheng

2017-01-01

Social influence drives human selection behaviours when numerous objects competing for limited attentions, which leads to the ‘rich get richer’ dynamics where popular objects tend to get more attentions. However, evidences have been found that, both the global information of the whole system and the local information among one’s friends have significant influence over the one’s selection. Consequently, a key question raises that, it is the local information or the global information more determinative for one’s selection? Here we compare the local-based influence and global-based influence. We show that, the selection behaviour is mainly driven by the local popularity of the objects while the global popularity plays a supplementary role driving the behaviour only when there is little local information for the user to refer to. Thereby, we propose a network model to describe the mechanism of user-object interaction evolution with social influence, where the users perform either local-driven or global-driven preferential attachments to the objects, i.e., the probability of an objects to be selected by a target user is proportional to either its local popularity or global popularity. The simulation suggests that, about 75% of the attachments should be driven by the local popularity to reproduce the empirical observations. It means that, at least in the studied context where users chose businesses on Yelp, there is a probability of 75% for a user to make a selection according to the local popularity. The proposed model and the numerical findings may shed some light on the study of social influence and evolving social systems. PMID:28406984

Social influence on selection behaviour: Distinguishing local- and global-driven preferential attachment.

PubMed

Pan, Xue; Hou, Lei; Liu, Kecheng

2017-01-01

Social influence drives human selection behaviours when numerous objects competing for limited attentions, which leads to the 'rich get richer' dynamics where popular objects tend to get more attentions. However, evidences have been found that, both the global information of the whole system and the local information among one's friends have significant influence over the one's selection. Consequently, a key question raises that, it is the local information or the global information more determinative for one's selection? Here we compare the local-based influence and global-based influence. We show that, the selection behaviour is mainly driven by the local popularity of the objects while the global popularity plays a supplementary role driving the behaviour only when there is little local information for the user to refer to. Thereby, we propose a network model to describe the mechanism of user-object interaction evolution with social influence, where the users perform either local-driven or global-driven preferential attachments to the objects, i.e., the probability of an objects to be selected by a target user is proportional to either its local popularity or global popularity. The simulation suggests that, about 75% of the attachments should be driven by the local popularity to reproduce the empirical observations. It means that, at least in the studied context where users chose businesses on Yelp, there is a probability of 75% for a user to make a selection according to the local popularity. The proposed model and the numerical findings may shed some light on the study of social influence and evolving social systems.

Biases in Metallicity Measurements from Global Galaxy Spectra: The Effects of Flux Weighting and Diffuse Ionized Gas Contamination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanders, Ryan L.; Shapley, Alice E.; Zhang, Kai; Yan, Renbin

2017-12-01

Galaxy metallicity scaling relations provide a powerful tool for understanding galaxy evolution, but obtaining unbiased global galaxy gas-phase oxygen abundances requires proper treatment of the various line-emitting sources within spectroscopic apertures. We present a model framework that treats galaxies as ensembles of H II and diffuse ionized gas (DIG) regions of varying metallicities. These models are based upon empirical relations between line ratios and electron temperature for H II regions, and DIG strong-line ratio relations from SDSS-IV MaNGA IFU data. Flux-weighting effects and DIG contamination can significantly affect properties inferred from global galaxy spectra, biasing metallicity estimates by more than 0.3 dex in some cases. We use observationally motivated inputs to construct a model matched to typical local star-forming galaxies, and quantify the biases in strong-line ratios, electron temperatures, and direct-method metallicities as inferred from global galaxy spectra relative to the median values of the H II region distributions in each galaxy. We also provide a generalized set of models that can be applied to individual galaxies or galaxy samples in atypical regions of parameter space. We use these models to correct for the effects of flux-weighting and DIG contamination in the local direct-method mass-metallicity and fundamental metallicity relations, and in the mass-metallicity relation based on strong-line metallicities. Future photoionization models of galaxy line emission need to include DIG emission and represent galaxies as ensembles of emitting regions with varying metallicity, instead of as single H II regions with effective properties, in order to obtain unbiased estimates of key underlying physical properties.

Rebased Global Mean Temperature comparisons between Global Climate Models and observed Global Mean Temperature: constraints and implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, S. C.; Stainforth, D. A.; Watkins, N. W.

2017-12-01

One of the benchmarks of global climate models (GCMs) is that their slow, decadal or longer timescale variations in past changes in Global Mean Temperature (GMT) track each other [1] and the observed GMT reasonably closely. However, the different GCMs tend to generate GMT time-series which have absolute values that are offset with respect to each other by as much as 3 degrees [2]. Subtracting these offsets, or rebasing, is an integral part of comparisons between observed past GMT and the GMT anomalies generated by ensembles of GCMs. We will formalize how rebasing introduces constraints in how the GCMs are related to each other. The GMT of a given GCM is a macroscopic reduced variable that tracks a subset of the full information contained in the time evolving solution of that GCM. If the GMT slow timescale dynamics of different GCMs is to a good approximation the same subject to a linear translation, then the phenomenology captured by this dynamics is essentially linear. Feedbacks in the different models when expressed through GMT are then to leading order linear. It then follows that a linear energy balance evolution equation for GMT is sufficient to reproduce the slow timescale GMT dynamics, given the appropriate effective heat capacity and feedback parameters. As a consequence, the GMT timeseries future projections generated by the GCMs may underestimate the impact of, and uncertainty in, the outcomes of future forcing scenarios. The offset subtraction procedure identifies a slow time-scale dynamics in model generated GMT. Fluctuations on much faster timescales do not typically track each other from one GCM to another, with the exception of major forcing events such as volcanic eruptions. This suggests that the GMT time-series can be decomposed into a slow and fast timescale which naturally leads to stochastic reduced energy balance models for GMT. [1] IPCC Chapter 9 P743 and fig 9.8, IPCC TS.1 [2] see e.g. [Mauritsen et al., Tuning the Climate of a Global Model, Journal of Advances in Modelling Earth Systems, 2012]4, IPCC SPM.6

Warm Eocene climate enhanced petroleum generation from Cretaceous source rocks - a potential climate feedback mechanism?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroeger, K. F.; Funnell, R. H.

2012-04-01

Surface and deep sea temperatures from late Paleocene to early Eocene until the Early Eocene climatic Optimum increased by 5 - 10° C. This change was associated with a negative δ13C trend which implies major changes in global carbon cycling and enrichment of surface systems in isotopically light carbon. The degree of change in sedimentary δ13C requires emission of >10,000 gigatonnes of isotopically light carbon into the ocean. We reveal a relationship between global warming and increased petroleum generation in sedimentary basins operating on 100 kyr to Myr time scales that may explain the observed isotope shift. We use TEX86-based surface temperature data1 to predict how change in surface temperature influences the temperature evolution and resultant petroleum generation in four southwest Pacific sedimentary basins. Models predict an up to 50% increase in oil and gas expulsion rates in response to the increase in temperatures from late Paleocene to early Eocene in the region. Such an increase in petroleum generation would have significantly increased leakage of light hydrocarbons and oil degeneration products into surface systems. We propose that our modelling results are representative of a large number of sedimentary basins world-wide and that early Eocene warming has led to a synchronization of periods of maximum petroleum generation and enhanced generation in otherwise unproductive basins through extension of the volume of source rock within the oil and gas window. Extrapolating our modelling results to hundreds of sedimentary basins worldwide suggests that globally increased leakage could have led to the release of an amount of CH4, CO2 and light petroleum components into surface systems compatible with the observed changes in δ13C. We further suggest that this is a significant feedback effect, enhancing early Eocene climate warming. 1Bijl, P. K., S. Schouten, A. Sluijs, G.-J. Reichart, J. C. Zachos, and H. Brinkhuis (2009), Early Palaeogene temperature evolution of the southwest Pacific Ocean, Nature, 461, 776-779.

Computing Pathways for Urban Decarbonization.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cremades, R.; Sommer, P.

2016-12-01

Urban areas emit roughly three quarters of global carbon emissions. Cities are crucial elements for a decarbonized society. Urban expansion and related transportation needs lead to increased energy use, and to carbon-intensive lock-ins that create barriers for climate change mitigation globally. The authors present the Integrated Urban Complexity (IUC) model, based on self-organizing Cellular Automata (CA), and use it to produce a new kind of spatially explicit Transformation Pathways for Urban Decarbonization (TPUD). IUC is based on statistical evidence relating the energy needed for transportation with the spatial distribution of population, specifically IUC incorporates variables from complexity science related to urban form, like the slope of the rank-size rule or spatial entropy, which brings IUC a step beyond existing models. The CA starts its evolution with real-world urban land use and population distribution data from the Global Human Settlement Layer. Thus, the IUC model runs over existing urban settlements, transforming the spatial distribution of population so the energy consumption for transportation is minimized. The statistical evidence that governs the evolution of the CA departs from the database of the International Association of Public Transport. A selected case is presented using Stuttgart (Germany) as an example. The results show how IUC varies urban density in those places where it improves the performance of crucial parameters related to urban form, producing a TPUD that shows where the spatial distribution of population should be modified with a degree of detail of 250 meters of cell size. The TPUD shows how the urban complex system evolves over time to minimize energy consumption for transportation. The resulting dynamics or urban decarbonization show decreased energy per capita, although total energy increases for increasing population. The results provide innovative insights: by checking current urban planning against a TPUD, urban planners could understand where existing plans contradict the Agenda 2030, primarily the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Climate Action (SDG 13), and Sustainable Cities and Communities (SDG 11). For the first time, evidence-based transformation pathways are produced to decarbonize cities.

Structural Mapping of Paterae and Mountains on Io: Implications for Crustal Stresses and Feature Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahern, A.; Radebaugh, J.; Christiansen, E. H.; Harris, R. A.

2015-12-01

Paterae and mountains are some of the most distinguishing and well-distributed surface features on Io, and they reveal the role of tectonism in Io's crust. Paterae, similar to calderas, are volcano-tectonic collapse features that often have straight margins. Io's mountains are some of the highest in the solar system and contain linear features that reveal crustal stresses. Paterae and mountains are often found adjacent to one another, suggesting possible genetic relationships. We have produced twelve detailed regional structural maps from high-resolution images of relevant features, where available, as well as a global structural map from the Io Global Color Mosaic. The regional structural maps identify features such as fractures, lineations, folds, faults, and mass wasting scarps, which are then interpreted in the context of global and regional stress regimes. A total of 1048 structural lineations have been identified globally. Preliminary analyses of major thrust and normal fault orientations are dominantly 90° offset from each other, suggesting the maximum contractional stresses leading to large mountain formation are not a direct result of tidal extension. Rather, these results corroborate the model of volcanic loading of the crust and global shortening, leading to thrust faulting and uplift of coherent crustal blocks. Several paterae, such as Hi'iaka and Tohil, are found adjacent to mountains inside extensional basins where lava has migrated up normal faults to erupt onto patera floors. Over time, mass wasting and volcanic resurfacing can change mountains from young, steep, and angular peaks to older, gentler, and more rounded hills. Mass wasting scarps make up 53% of all features identified. The structural maps highlight the significant effect of mass wasting on Io's surface, the evolution of mountains through time, the role of tectonics in the formation of paterae, and the formation of mountains through global contraction due to volcanism.

Mean-state acceleration of cloud-resolving models and large eddy simulations

DOE PAGES

Jones, C. R.; Bretherton, C. S.; Pritchard, M. S.

2015-10-29

In this study, large eddy simulations and cloud-resolving models (CRMs) are routinely used to simulate boundary layer and deep convective cloud processes, aid in the development of moist physical parameterization for global models, study cloud-climate feedbacks and cloud-aerosol interaction, and as the heart of superparameterized climate models. These models are computationally demanding, placing practical constraints on their use in these applications, especially for long, climate-relevant simulations. In many situations, the horizontal-mean atmospheric structure evolves slowly compared to the turnover time of the most energetic turbulent eddies. We develop a simple scheme to reduce this time scale separation to accelerate themore » evolution of the mean state. Using this approach we are able to accelerate the model evolution by a factor of 2–16 or more in idealized stratocumulus, shallow and deep cumulus convection without substantial loss of accuracy in simulating mean cloud statistics and their sensitivity to climate change perturbations. As a culminating test, we apply this technique to accelerate the embedded CRMs in the Superparameterized Community Atmosphere Model by a factor of 2, thereby showing that the method is robust and stable to realistic perturbations across spatial and temporal scales typical in a GCM.« less

Simulation and Sensitivity in a Nested Modeling System for South America. Part II: GCM Boundary Forcing.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rojas, Maisa; Seth, Anji

2003-08-01

of this study, the RegCM's ability to simulate circulation and rainfall observed in the two extreme seasons was demonstrated when driven at the lateral boundaries by reanalyzed forcing. Seasonal integrations with the RegCM driven by GCM ensemble-derived lateral boundary forcing demonstrate that the nested model responds well to the SST forcing, by capturing the major features of the circulation and rainfall differences between the two years. The GCM-driven model also improves upon the monthly evolution of rainfall compared with that from the GCM. However, the nested model rainfall simulations for the two seasons are degraded compared with those from the reanalyses-driven RegCM integrations. The poor location of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the GCM leads to excess rainfall in Nordeste in the nested model.An expanded domain was tested, wherein the RegCM was permitted more internal freedom to respond to SST and regional orographic forcing. Results show that the RegCM is able to improve the location of the ITCZ, and the seasonal evolution of rainfall in Nordeste, the Amazon region, and the southeastern region of Brazil. However, it remains that the limiting factor in the skill of the nested modeling system is the quality of the lateral boundary forcing provided by the global model.

A methodology for a quantitative interpretation of DGGE with the help of mathematical modelling: application in biohydrogen production.

PubMed

Tapia, Estela; Donoso-Bravo, Andres; Cabrol, Léa; Alves, Madalena; Pereira, Alcina; Rapaport, Alain; Ruiz-Filippi, Gonzalo

2014-01-01

Molecular biology techniques provide valuable insights in the investigation of microbial dynamics and evolution. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) analysis is one of the most popular methods which have been used in bioprocess assessment. Most of the anaerobic digestion models consider several microbial populations as state variables. However, the difficulty of measuring individual species concentrations may cause inaccurate model predictions. The integration of microbial data and ecosystem modelling is currently a challenging issue for improved system control. A novel procedure that combines common experimental measurements, DGGE, and image analysis is presented in this study in order to provide a preliminary estimation of the actual concentration of the dominant bacterial ribotypes in a bioreactor, for further use as a variable in mathematical modelling of the bioprocess. This approach was applied during the start-up of a continuous anaerobic bioreactor for hydrogen production. The experimental concentration data were used for determining the kinetic parameters of each species, by using a multi-species chemostat-model. The model was able to reproduce the global trend of substrate and biomass concentrations during the reactor start-up, and predicted in an acceptable way the evolution of each ribotype concentration, depicting properly specific ribotype selection and extinction.

Elemental mapping by Dawn reveals exogenic H in Vesta's regolith

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prettyman, Thomas H.; Mittlefehldt, David W.; Yamashita, Naoyuki; Lawrence, David J.; Beck, Andrew W.; Feldman, William C.; McCoy, Timothy J.; McSween, Harry Y.; Toplis, Michael J.; Titus, Timothy N.; Tricarico, Pasquale; Reedy, Robert C.; Hendricks, John S.; Forni, Olivier; Le Corre, Lucille; Li, Jian-Yang; Mizzon, Hugau; Reddy, Vishnu; Raymond, Carol A.; Russell, Christopher T.

2012-01-01

Using Dawn’s Gamma Ray and Neutron Detector, we tested models of Vesta’s evolution based on studies of howardite, eucrite, and diogenite (HED) meteorites. Global Fe/O and Fe/Si ratios are consistent with HED compositions. Neutron measurements confirm that a thick, diogenitic lower crust is exposed in the Rheasilvia basin, which is consistent with global magmatic differentiation. Vesta’s regolith contains substantial amounts of hydrogen. The highest hydrogen concentrations coincide with older, low-albedo regions near the equator, where water ice is unstable. The young, Rheasilvia basin contains the lowest concentrations. These observations are consistent with gradual accumulation of hydrogen by infall of carbonaceous chondrites—observed as clasts in some howardites—and subsequent removal or burial of this material by large impacts.

Spontaneous Centralization of Control in a Network of Company Ownerships

PubMed Central

Krause, Sebastian M.; Peixoto, Tiago P.; Bornholdt, Stefan

2013-01-01

We introduce a model for the adaptive evolution of a network of company ownerships. In a recent work it has been shown that the empirical global network of corporate control is marked by a central, tightly connected “core” made of a small number of large companies which control a significant part of the global economy. Here we show how a simple, adaptive “rich get richer” dynamics can account for this characteristic, which incorporates the increased buying power of more influential companies, and in turn results in even higher control. We conclude that this kind of centralized structure can emerge without it being an explicit goal of these companies, or as a result of a well-organized strategy. PMID:24324594

Ocean Basin Evolution and Global-Scale Plate Reorganization Events Since Pangea Breakup

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, R. Dietmar; Seton, Maria; Zahirovic, Sabin; Williams, Simon E.; Matthews, Kara J.; Wright, Nicky M.; Shephard, Grace E.; Maloney, Kayla T.; Barnett-Moore, Nicholas; Hosseinpour, Maral; Bower, Dan J.; Cannon, John

2016-06-01

We present a revised global plate motion model with continuously closing plate boundaries ranging from the Triassic at 230 Ma to the present day, assess differences among alternative absolute plate motion models, and review global tectonic events. Relatively high mean absolute plate motion rates of approximately 9-10 cm yr-1 between 140 and 120 Ma may be related to transient plate motion accelerations driven by the successive emplacement of a sequence of large igneous provinces during that time. An event at ˜100 Ma is most clearly expressed in the Indian Ocean and may reflect the initiation of Andean-style subduction along southern continental Eurasia, whereas an acceleration at ˜80 Ma of mean rates from 6 to 8 cm yr-1 reflects the initial northward acceleration of India and simultaneous speedups of plates in the Pacific. An event at ˜50 Ma expressed in relative, and some absolute, plate motion changes around the globe and in a reduction of global mean plate speeds from about 6 to 4-5 cm yr-1 indicates that an increase in collisional forces (such as the India-Eurasia collision) and ridge subduction events in the Pacific (such as the Izanagi-Pacific Ridge) play a significant role in modulating plate velocities.

Possible linkage between supernovae, increased terrestrial lightning, and wildfire activity in the Late Miocene and Early Pleistocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, B. C.; Feulner, G.; Melott, A. L.; Kirsten, T.; von Bloh, W.

2017-12-01

Radioisotopes from deep-sea deposits show that Earth was affected by nearby supernovae about 2.5 and 8 million years ago. Recent modelling work shows that high-energy particles from these events resulted in greatly enhanced ionization of the troposphere. This could have led to an increase in wildfires via more frequent lightning. Here we show that published data on global fire activity from charcoal records reveal a marked increase in wildfires around the times of the supernova explosions. We use a dynamic global vegetation model to assess the impact of increased lightning frequency on vegetation patterns, finding a patchy global decrease in tree cover. Regionally, vegetation changes are particularly pronounced in western North America, the Mediterranean, Central Asia, Northern Indochina, subtropical South America, Africa and Australia, and notably East Africa, in agreement with empirical evidence for a global shift towards savannas during the Pleistocene. Our results demonstrate that moderately nearby supernovae have the potential to affect life on Earth even if they are too distant to initiate a mass extinction. Finally, we note that the shift from forest to savannah biomes in the East African Rift Valley region has been tentatively linked to hominin evolution in this region.

Parameter optimization, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis of an ecosystem model at a forest flux tower site in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shuguang; Huang, Zhihong; Yan, Wende

2014-01-01

Ecosystem models are useful tools for understanding ecological processes and for sustainable management of resources. In biogeochemical field, numerical models have been widely used for investigating carbon dynamics under global changes from site to regional and global scales. However, it is still challenging to optimize parameters and estimate parameterization uncertainty for complex process-based models such as the Erosion Deposition Carbon Model (EDCM), a modified version of CENTURY, that consider carbon, water, and nutrient cycles of ecosystems. This study was designed to conduct the parameter identifiability, optimization, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis of EDCM using our developed EDCM-Auto, which incorporated a comprehensive R package—Flexible Modeling Framework (FME) and the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm. Using a forest flux tower site as a case study, we implemented a comprehensive modeling analysis involving nine parameters and four target variables (carbon and water fluxes) with their corresponding measurements based on the eddy covariance technique. The local sensitivity analysis shows that the plant production-related parameters (e.g., PPDF1 and PRDX) are most sensitive to the model cost function. Both SCE and FME are comparable and performed well in deriving the optimal parameter set with satisfactory simulations of target variables. Global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis indicate that the parameter uncertainty and the resulting output uncertainty can be quantified, and that the magnitude of parameter-uncertainty effects depends on variables and seasons. This study also demonstrates that using the cutting-edge R functions such as FME can be feasible and attractive for conducting comprehensive parameter analysis for ecosystem modeling.

Global continental and ocean basin reconstructions since 200 Ma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seton, M.; Müller, R. D.; Zahirovic, S.; Gaina, C.; Torsvik, T.; Shephard, G.; Talsma, A.; Gurnis, M.; Turner, M.; Maus, S.; Chandler, M.

2012-07-01

Global plate motion models provide a spatial and temporal framework for geological data and have been effective tools for exploring processes occurring at the earth's surface. However, published models either have insufficient temporal coverage or fail to treat tectonic plates in a self-consistent manner. They usually consider the motions of selected features attached to tectonic plates, such as continents, but generally do not explicitly account for the continuous evolution of plate boundaries through time. In order to explore the coupling between the surface and mantle, plate models are required that extend over at least a few hundred million years and treat plates as dynamic features with dynamically evolving plate boundaries. We have constructed a new type of global plate motion model consisting of a set of continuously-closing topological plate polygons with associated plate boundaries and plate velocities since the break-up of the supercontinent Pangea. Our model is underpinned by plate motions derived from reconstructing the seafloor-spreading history of the ocean basins and motions of the continents and utilizes a hybrid absolute reference frame, based on a moving hotspot model for the last 100 Ma, and a true-polar wander corrected paleomagnetic model for 200 to 100 Ma. Detailed regional geological and geophysical observations constrain plate boundary inception or cessation, and time-dependent geometry. Although our plate model is primarily designed as a reference model for a new generation of geodynamic studies by providing the surface boundary conditions for the deep earth, it is also useful for studies in disparate fields when a framework is needed for analyzing and interpreting spatio-temporal data.

Multiobjective Optimization Using a Pareto Differential Evolution Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Madavan, Nateri K.; Biegel, Bryan A. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Differential Evolution is a simple, fast, and robust evolutionary algorithm that has proven effective in determining the global optimum for several difficult single-objective optimization problems. In this paper, the Differential Evolution algorithm is extended to multiobjective optimization problems by using a Pareto-based approach. The algorithm performs well when applied to several test optimization problems from the literature.

A critical transition in leaf evolution facilitated the Cretaceous angiosperm revolution.

PubMed

de Boer, Hugo Jan; Eppinga, Maarten B; Wassen, Martin J; Dekker, Stefan C

2012-01-01

The revolutionary rise of broad-leaved (flowering) angiosperm plant species during the Cretaceous initiated a global ecological transformation towards modern biodiversity. Still, the mechanisms involved in this angiosperm radiation remain enigmatic. Here we show that the period of rapid angiosperm evolution initiated after the leaf interior (post venous) transport path length for water was reduced beyond the leaf interior transport path length for CO2 at a critical leaf vein density of 2.5-5 mm mm(-2). Data and our modelling approaches indicate that surpassing this critical vein density was a pivotal moment in leaf evolution that enabled evolving angiosperms to profit from developing leaves with more and smaller stomata in terms of higher carbon returns from equal water loss. Surpassing the critical vein density may therefore have facilitated evolving angiosperms to develop leaves with higher gas exchange capacities required to adapt to the Cretaceous CO2 decline and outcompete previously dominant coniferous species in the upper canopy.

On the evolution of vortices in massive protoplanetary discs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierens, Arnaud; Lin, Min-Kai

2018-05-01

It is expected that a pressure bump can be formed at the inner edge of a dead-zone, and where vortices can develop through the Rossby Wave Instability (RWI). It has been suggested that self-gravity can significantly affect the evolution of such vortices. We present the results of 2D hydrodynamical simulations of the evolution of vortices forming at a pressure bump in self-gravitating discs with Toomre parameter in the range 4 - 30. We consider isothermal plus non-isothermal disc models that employ either the classical β prescription or a more realistic treatment for cooling. The main aim is to investigate whether the condensating effect of self-gravity can stabilize vortices in sufficiently massive discs. We confirm that in isothermal disc models with Q ≳ 15, vortex decay occurs due to the vortex self-gravitational torque. For discs with 3≲ Q ≲ 7, the vortex develops gravitational instabilities within its core and undergoes gravitational collapse, whereas more massive discs give rise to the formation of global eccentric modes. In non-isothermal discs with β cooling, the vortex maintains a turbulent core prior to undergoing gravitational collapse for β ≲ 0.1, whereas it decays if β ≥ 1. In models that incorpore both self-gravity and a better treatment for cooling, however, a stable vortex is formed with aspect ratio χ ˜ 3 - 4. Our results indicate that self-gravity significantly impacts the evolution of vortices forming in protoplanetary discs, although the thermodynamical structure of the vortex is equally important for determining its long-term dynamics.

Influence of vectors' risk-spreading strategies and environmental stochasticity on the epidemiology and evolution of vector-borne diseases: the example of Chagas' disease.

PubMed

Pelosse, Perrine; Kribs-Zaleta, Christopher M; Ginoux, Marine; Rabinovich, Jorge E; Gourbière, Sébastien; Menu, Frédéric

2013-01-01

Insects are known to display strategies that spread the risk of encountering unfavorable conditions, thereby decreasing the extinction probability of genetic lineages in unpredictable environments. To what extent these strategies influence the epidemiology and evolution of vector-borne diseases in stochastic environments is largely unknown. In triatomines, the vectors of the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas' disease, juvenile development time varies between individuals and such variation most likely decreases the extinction risk of vector populations in stochastic environments. We developed a simplified multi-stage vector-borne SI epidemiological model to investigate how vector risk-spreading strategies and environmental stochasticity influence the prevalence and evolution of a parasite. This model is based on available knowledge on triatomine biodemography, but its conceptual outcomes apply, to a certain extent, to other vector-borne diseases. Model comparisons between deterministic and stochastic settings led to the conclusion that environmental stochasticity, vector risk-spreading strategies (in particular an increase in the length and variability of development time) and their interaction have drastic consequences on vector population dynamics, disease prevalence, and the relative short-term evolution of parasite virulence. Our work shows that stochastic environments and associated risk-spreading strategies can increase the prevalence of vector-borne diseases and favor the invasion of more virulent parasite strains on relatively short evolutionary timescales. This study raises new questions and challenges in a context of increasingly unpredictable environmental variations as a result of global climate change and human interventions such as habitat destruction or vector control.

Influence of Vectors’ Risk-Spreading Strategies and Environmental Stochasticity on the Epidemiology and Evolution of Vector-Borne Diseases: The Example of Chagas’ Disease

PubMed Central

Pelosse, Perrine; Kribs-Zaleta, Christopher M.; Ginoux, Marine; Rabinovich, Jorge E.; Gourbière, Sébastien; Menu, Frédéric

2013-01-01

Insects are known to display strategies that spread the risk of encountering unfavorable conditions, thereby decreasing the extinction probability of genetic lineages in unpredictable environments. To what extent these strategies influence the epidemiology and evolution of vector-borne diseases in stochastic environments is largely unknown. In triatomines, the vectors of the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas’ disease, juvenile development time varies between individuals and such variation most likely decreases the extinction risk of vector populations in stochastic environments. We developed a simplified multi-stage vector-borne SI epidemiological model to investigate how vector risk-spreading strategies and environmental stochasticity influence the prevalence and evolution of a parasite. This model is based on available knowledge on triatomine biodemography, but its conceptual outcomes apply, to a certain extent, to other vector-borne diseases. Model comparisons between deterministic and stochastic settings led to the conclusion that environmental stochasticity, vector risk-spreading strategies (in particular an increase in the length and variability of development time) and their interaction have drastic consequences on vector population dynamics, disease prevalence, and the relative short-term evolution of parasite virulence. Our work shows that stochastic environments and associated risk-spreading strategies can increase the prevalence of vector-borne diseases and favor the invasion of more virulent parasite strains on relatively short evolutionary timescales. This study raises new questions and challenges in a context of increasingly unpredictable environmental variations as a result of global climate change and human interventions such as habitat destruction or vector control. PMID:23951018

Body Size Reductions in Nonmammalian Eutheriodont Therapsids (Synapsida) during the End-Permian Mass Extinction

PubMed Central

Huttenlocker, Adam K.

2014-01-01

The extent to which mass extinctions influence body size evolution in major tetrapod clades is inadequately understood. For example, the ‘Lilliput effect,’ a common feature of mass extinctions, describes a temporary decrease in body sizes of survivor taxa in post-extinction faunas. However, its signature on existing patterns of body size evolution in tetrapods and the persistence of its impacts during post-extinction recoveries are virtually unknown, and rarely compared in both geologic and phylogenetic contexts. Here, I evaluate temporal and phylogenetic distributions of body size in Permo-Triassic therocephalian and cynodont therapsids (eutheriodonts) using a museum collections-based approach and time series model fitting on a regional stratigraphic sequence from the Karoo Basin, South Africa. I further employed rank order correlation tests on global age and clade rank data from an expanded phylogenetic dataset, and performed evolutionary model testing using Brownian (passive diffusion) models. Results support significant size reductions in the immediate aftermath of the end-Permian mass extinction (ca. 252.3 Ma) consistent with some definitions of Lilliput effects. However, this temporal succession reflects a pattern that was underscored largely by Brownian processes and constructive selectivity. Results also support two recent contentions about body size evolution and mass extinctions: 1) active, directional evolution in size traits is rare over macroevolutionary time scales and 2) geologically brief size reductions may be accomplished by the ecological removal of large-bodied species without rapid originations of new small-bodied clades or shifts from long-term evolutionary patterns. PMID:24498335

Theodore Brameld's Thought Infused in Higher Education Global Studies Curriculum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

White, Stephen R.

2016-01-01

The assertion here is that Theodore Brameld's Social Reconstructionist thought can provide us in American higher education the philosophical foundation for a relevant 21st century curriculum global studies agenda. It is a curriculum that merges self-awareness with global societal evolution. Through the interjection of Brameldian social…

Staffing the Global Organization: "Cultural Nomads"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McPhail, Ruth; Fisher, Ron; Harvey, Michael; Moeller, Miriam

2012-01-01

This article explores the evolution of international staffing in an increasingly globalized and hypercompetitive marketplace. As the issue of staff retention becomes critical in global organizations, it is important to understand the types of managers that may be on or assigned to overseas assignments. The purpose of this article is to present a…

The Collaborative Seismic Earth Model: Generation 1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fichtner, Andreas; van Herwaarden, Dirk-Philip; Afanasiev, Michael; SimutÄ--, SaulÄ--; Krischer, Lion; ćubuk-Sabuncu, Yeşim; Taymaz, Tuncay; Colli, Lorenzo; Saygin, Erdinc; Villaseñor, Antonio; Trampert, Jeannot; Cupillard, Paul; Bunge, Hans-Peter; Igel, Heiner

2018-05-01

We present a general concept for evolutionary, collaborative, multiscale inversion of geophysical data, specifically applied to the construction of a first-generation Collaborative Seismic Earth Model. This is intended to address the limited resources of individual researchers and the often limited use of previously accumulated knowledge. Model evolution rests on a Bayesian updating scheme, simplified into a deterministic method that honors today's computational restrictions. The scheme is able to harness distributed human and computing power. It furthermore handles conflicting updates, as well as variable parameterizations of different model refinements or different inversion techniques. The first-generation Collaborative Seismic Earth Model comprises 12 refinements from full seismic waveform inversion, ranging from regional crustal- to continental-scale models. A global full-waveform inversion ensures that regional refinements translate into whole-Earth structure.

The Early Cretaceous Sulfur Isotope Record: New Data, Revised Ages, and Updated Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kristall, B.; Hurtgen, M.; Sageman, B. B.; Jacobson, A. D.

2015-12-01

The Early Cretaceous is a time of significant transformation with the continued break-up of Pangea, the emplacement of several LIPs, and a climatic shift from a cool greenhouse to a warm greenhouse. The timing of these major events and their relationship to seawater geochemistry (as recorded in isotope records) is critical for understanding changes in global biogeochemical cycles during this time. Within this context, recent revisions to the Cretaceous portion of the geologic timescale necessitate a reevaluation of the Cretaceous S isotope record as recorded in marine barite (Paytan et al., 2004). We present a revised Early Cretaceous S isotope record and present new δ34Sbarite data that extend the record further back in time and provide more detail during two major S isotope shifts of the Early Cretaceous. The new data maintain the major ~5‰ negative shift but raise questions on the timing and structure of this perturbation. Furthermore, recently updated estimates for global rates of marine microbial sulfate reduction (MSR) (Bowles et al., 2014) and sulfate burial during the Phanerozoic (Halevy et al., 2012) require notable revisions in the fluxes and isotopic values used to model the global S cycle. We present a revised global S cycle box model and reconstruct the evolution of the Early Cretaceous S isotope record primarily through perturbations in volcanic and hydrothermal fluxes (e.g., submarine LIPs). Changes to the weathering and pyrite burial fluxes and the global integrated fractionation factor for MSR are also used to modulate, balance, and smooth the LIP-driven perturbation. The massive evaporite burial during the Late Aptian post dates the major -5‰ shift and has little affect on the modeled S isotope composition of seawater sulfate, despite causing a major drop in sulfate concentration. The S cycle box model is coupled to a Sr cycle box model to provide additional constraints on the magnitude and timing of perturbations within the S isotope record.