Science.gov

Sample records for global mass estimates

  1. Total Land Water Storage Change over 2003 - 2013 Estimated from a Global Mass Budget Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dieng, H. B.; Champollion, N.; Cazenave, A.; Wada, Y.; Schrama, E.; Meyssignac, B.

    2015-01-01

    We estimate the total land water storage (LWS) change between 2003 and 2013 using a global water mass budget approach. Hereby we compare the ocean mass change (estimated from GRACE space gravimetry on the one hand, and from the satellite altimetry-based global mean sea level corrected for steric effects on the other hand) to the sum of the main water mass components of the climate system: glaciers, Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets, atmospheric water and LWS (the latter being the unknown quantity to be estimated). For glaciers and ice sheets, we use published estimates of ice mass trends based on various types of observations covering different time spans between 2003 and 2013. From the mass budget equation, we derive a net LWS trend over the study period. The mean trend amounts to +0.30 +/- 0.18 mm/yr in sea level equivalent. This corresponds to a net decrease of -108 +/- 64 cu km/yr in LWS over the 2003-2013 decade. We also estimate the rate of change in LWS and find no significant acceleration over the study period. The computed mean global LWS trend over the study period is shown to be explained mainly by direct anthropogenic effects on land hydrology, i.e. the net effect of groundwater depletion and impoundment of water in man-made reservoirs, and to a lesser extent the effect of naturally-forced land hydrology variability. Our results compare well with independent estimates of human-induced changes in global land hydrology.

  2. Total land water storage change over 2003-2013 estimated from a global mass budget approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dieng, Habib B.; Champollion, Nicolas; Cazenave, Anny; Wada, Yoshihide; Schrama, Ernst; Meyssignac, Benoit

    2016-04-01

    We estimate the total land water storage (LWS) change between 2003 and 2013 using a global water mass budget approach. Hereby we compare the ocean mass change (estimated from GRACE space gravimetry on the one hand, and from the satellite altimetry-based global mean sea level corrected for steric effects on the other hand) to the sum of the main water mass components of the climate system: glaciers, Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets, atmospheric water and LWS(the latter being the unknown quantity to be estimated). For glaciers and ice sheets, we use published estimates of ice mass trends based on various types of observations covering different time spans between 2003 and 2013. From the mass budget equation, we derive a net LWS trend over the study period. The mean trend amounts to+0.30 ± 0.18mmyr-1 in sea level equivalent. This corresponds to a net decrease of -108 ± 64 km3 yr-1 in LWS over the 2003-2013 decade. We also estimate the rate of change in LWS and find no significant acceleration over the study period. The computed mean global LWS trend over the study period is shown to be explained mainly by direct anthropogenic effects on land hydrology, i.e. the net effect of groundwater depletion and impoundment of water in man-made reservoirs, and to a lesser extent the effect of naturally-forced land hydrology variability. Our results compare well with independent estimates of human-induced changes in global land hydrology.

  3. Total Land Water Storage Change over 2003 - 2013 Estimated from a Global Mass Budget Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dieng, H. B.; Champollion, N.; Cazenave, A.; Wada, Y.; Schrama, E.; Meyssignac, B.

    2015-01-01

    We estimate the total land water storage (LWS) change between 2003 and 2013 using a global water mass budget approach. Hereby we compare the ocean mass change (estimated from GRACE space gravimetry on the one hand, and from the satellite altimetry-based global mean sea level corrected for steric effects on the other hand) to the sum of the main water mass components of the climate system: glaciers, Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets, atmospheric water and LWS (the latter being the unknown quantity to be estimated). For glaciers and ice sheets, we use published estimates of ice mass trends based on various types of observations covering different time spans between 2003 and 2013. From the mass budget equation, we derive a net LWS trend over the study period. The mean trend amounts to +0.30 +/- 0.18 mm/yr in sea level equivalent. This corresponds to a net decrease of -108 +/- 64 cu km/yr in LWS over the 2003-2013 decade. We also estimate the rate of change in LWS and find no significant acceleration over the study period. The computed mean global LWS trend over the study period is shown to be explained mainly by direct anthropogenic effects on land hydrology, i.e. the net effect of groundwater depletion and impoundment of water in man-made reservoirs, and to a lesser extent the effect of naturally-forced land hydrology variability. Our results compare well with independent estimates of human-induced changes in global land hydrology.

  4. Incorrect interpretation of carbon mass balance biases global vegetation fire emission estimates

    PubMed Central

    Surawski, N. C.; Sullivan, A. L.; Roxburgh, S. H.; Meyer, C.P. Mick; Polglase, P. J.

    2016-01-01

    Vegetation fires are a complex phenomenon in the Earth system with many global impacts, including influences on global climate. Estimating carbon emissions from vegetation fires relies on a carbon mass balance technique that has evolved with two different interpretations. Databases of global vegetation fire emissions use an approach based on ‘consumed biomass', which is an approximation to the biogeochemically correct ‘burnt carbon' approach. Here we show that applying the ‘consumed biomass' approach to global emissions from vegetation fires leads to annual overestimates of carbon emitted to the atmosphere by 4.0% or 100 Tg compared with the ‘burnt carbon' approach. The required correction is significant and represents ∼9% of the net global forest carbon sink estimated annually. Vegetation fire emission studies should use the ‘burnt carbon' approach to quantify and understand the role of this burnt carbon, which is not emitted to the atmosphere, as a sink enriched in carbon. PMID:27146785

  5. Incorrectly Interpreting the Carbon Mass Balance Technique Leads to Biased Emissions Estimates from Global Vegetation Fires

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Surawski, N. C.; Sullivan, A. L.; Roxburgh, S. H.; Meyer, M.; Polglase, P. J.

    2016-12-01

    Vegetation fires are a complex phenomenon and have a range of global impacts including influences on climate. Even though fire is a necessary disturbance for the maintenance of some ecosystems, a range of anthropogenically deleterious consequences are associated with it, such as damage to assets and infrastructure, loss of life, as well as degradation to air quality leading to negative impacts on human health. Estimating carbon emissions from fire relies on a carbon mass balance technique which has evolved with two different interpretations in the fire emissions community. Databases reporting global fire emissions estimates use an approach based on `consumed biomass' which is an approximation to the biogeochemically correct `burnt carbon' approach. Disagreement between the two methods occurs because the `consumed biomass' accounting technique assumes that all burnt carbon is volatilized and emitted. By undertaking a global review of the fraction of burnt carbon emitted to the atmosphere, we show that the `consumed biomass' accounting approach overestimates global carbon emissions by 4.0%, or 100 Teragrams, annually. The required correction is significant and represents 9% of the net global forest carbon sink estimated annually. To correctly partition burnt carbon between that emitted to the atmosphere and that remaining as a post-fire residue requires the post-burn carbon content to be estimated, which is quite often not undertaken in atmospheric emissions studies. To broaden our understanding of ecosystem carbon fluxes, it is recommended that the change in carbon content associated with burnt residues be accounted for. Apart from correctly partitioning burnt carbon between the emitted and residue pools, it enables an accounting approach which can assess the efficacy of fire management operations targeted at sequestering carbon from fire. These findings are particularly relevant for the second commitment period for the Kyoto protocol, since improved landscape fire

  6. Improving Global Surface Mass Variation Estimates With Multi-Satellite Data Combination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, X.; Blom, R. G.; Dong, D.; Ivins, E. R.; Owen, S. E.; Oyafuso, F. A.

    2006-05-01

    The GRACE gravity mission is an important milestone toward global high resolution and accurate monitoring of surface mass variations. The spherical harmonic spectra of the variations, however, are not complete without the degree-1 (or equivalently geocenter motion) terms. Also, SLR geocenter motion solutions severely under- sample the center-of-figure of the solid Earth surface due to its small tracking network. To validate and complement gravity data, we compare and combine them with GPS crustal deformation measurements and a TOPEX/JASON data-assimilated ocean bottom pressure (OBP) model to solve for surface mass variations up to degree and order 50, with reduced aid of a priori information. The solutions include geocenter motion estimates with < 0.5 mm annual precision. To further reduce a priori model dependency and improve surface mass variation accuracy, the supplemented GRACE data (plus degree-1 terms) are combined with OBP and GPS data without a priori model. The resulting average oceanic and Antarctic mass variation estimates show nearly a factor of 2 improvements over those derived from the supplemented GRACE solution alone.

  7. Global Mass Flux Solutions from GRACE: A Comparison of Parameter Estimation Strategies - Mass Concentrations Versus Stokes Coefficients

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rowlands, D. D.; Luthcke, S. B.; McCarthy J. J.; Klosko, S. M.; Chinn, D. S.; Lemoine, F. G.; Boy, J.-P.; Sabaka, T. J.

    2010-01-01

    The differences between mass concentration (mas con) parameters and standard Stokes coefficient parameters in the recovery of gravity infonnation from gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) intersatellite K-band range rate data are investigated. First, mascons are decomposed into their Stokes coefficient representations to gauge the range of solutions available using each of the two types of parameters. Next, a direct comparison is made between two time series of unconstrained gravity solutions, one based on a set of global equal area mascon parameters (equivalent to 4deg x 4deg at the equator), and the other based on standard Stokes coefficients with each time series using the same fundamental processing of the GRACE tracking data. It is shown that in unconstrained solutions, the type of gravity parameter being estimated does not qualitatively affect the estimated gravity field. It is also shown that many of the differences in mass flux derivations from GRACE gravity solutions arise from the type of smoothing being used and that the type of smoothing that can be embedded in mas con solutions has distinct advantages over postsolution smoothing. Finally, a 1 year time series based on global 2deg equal area mascons estimated every 10 days is presented.

  8. Global Mass Flux Solutions from GRACE: A Comparison of Parameter Estimation Strategies - Mass Concentrations Versus Stokes Coefficients

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rowlands, D. D.; Luthcke, S. B.; McCarthy J. J.; Klosko, S. M.; Chinn, D. S.; Lemoine, F. G.; Boy, J.-P.; Sabaka, T. J.

    2010-01-01

    The differences between mass concentration (mas con) parameters and standard Stokes coefficient parameters in the recovery of gravity infonnation from gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) intersatellite K-band range rate data are investigated. First, mascons are decomposed into their Stokes coefficient representations to gauge the range of solutions available using each of the two types of parameters. Next, a direct comparison is made between two time series of unconstrained gravity solutions, one based on a set of global equal area mascon parameters (equivalent to 4deg x 4deg at the equator), and the other based on standard Stokes coefficients with each time series using the same fundamental processing of the GRACE tracking data. It is shown that in unconstrained solutions, the type of gravity parameter being estimated does not qualitatively affect the estimated gravity field. It is also shown that many of the differences in mass flux derivations from GRACE gravity solutions arise from the type of smoothing being used and that the type of smoothing that can be embedded in mas con solutions has distinct advantages over postsolution smoothing. Finally, a 1 year time series based on global 2deg equal area mascons estimated every 10 days is presented.

  9. Oceanic Fluxes of Mass, Heat and Freshwater: A Global Estimate and Perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    MacDonald, Alison Marguerite

    1995-01-01

    Data from fifteen globally distributed, modern, high resolution, hydrographic oceanic transects are combined in an inverse calculation using large scale box models. The models provide estimates of the global meridional heat and freshwater budgets and are used to examine the sensitivity of the global circulation, both inter and intra-basin exchange rates, to a variety of external constraints provided by estimates of Ekman, boundary current and throughflow transports. A solution is found which is consistent with both the model physics and the global data set, despite a twenty five year time span and a lack of seasonal consistency among the data. The overall pattern of the global circulation suggested by the models is similar to that proposed in previously published local studies and regional reviews. However, significant qualitative and quantitative differences exist. These differences are due both to the model definition and to the global nature of the data set.

  10. Oceanic Fluxes of Mass, Heat and Freshwater: A Global Estimate and Perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    MacDonald, Alison Marguerite

    1995-01-01

    Data from fifteen globally distributed, modern, high resolution, hydrographic oceanic transects are combined in an inverse calculation using large scale box models. The models provide estimates of the global meridional heat and freshwater budgets and are used to examine the sensitivity of the global circulation, both inter and intra-basin exchange rates, to a variety of external constraints provided by estimates of Ekman, boundary current and throughflow transports. A solution is found which is consistent with both the model physics and the global data set, despite a twenty five year time span and a lack of seasonal consistency among the data. The overall pattern of the global circulation suggested by the models is similar to that proposed in previously published local studies and regional reviews. However, significant qualitative and quantitative differences exist. These differences are due both to the model definition and to the global nature of the data set.

  11. Observation-Based Estimates of Global Glacier Mass Change and Its Contribution to Sea-Level Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marzeion, B.; Champollion, N.; Haeberli, W.; Langley, K.; Leclercq, P.; Paul, F.

    2016-11-01

    Glaciers have strongly contributed to sea-level rise during the past century and will continue to be an important part of the sea-level budget during the twenty-first century. Here, we review the progress in estimating global glacier mass change from in situ measurements of mass and length changes, remote sensing methods, and mass balance modeling driven by climate observations. For the period before the onset of satellite observations, different strategies to overcome the uncertainty associated with monitoring only a small sample of the world's glaciers have been developed. These methods now yield estimates generally reconcilable with each other within their respective uncertainty margins. Whereas this is also the case for the recent decades, the greatly increased number of estimates obtained from remote sensing reveals that gravimetry-based methods typically arrive at lower mass loss estimates than the other methods. We suggest that strategies for better interconnecting the different methods are needed to ensure progress and to increase the temporal and spatial detail of reliable glacier mass change estimates.

  12. Observation-Based Estimates of Global Glacier Mass Change and Its Contribution to Sea-Level Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marzeion, B.; Champollion, N.; Haeberli, W.; Langley, K.; Leclercq, P.; Paul, F.

    2017-01-01

    Glaciers have strongly contributed to sea-level rise during the past century and will continue to be an important part of the sea-level budget during the twenty-first century. Here, we review the progress in estimating global glacier mass change from in situ measurements of mass and length changes, remote sensing methods, and mass balance modeling driven by climate observations. For the period before the onset of satellite observations, different strategies to overcome the uncertainty associated with monitoring only a small sample of the world's glaciers have been developed. These methods now yield estimates generally reconcilable with each other within their respective uncertainty margins. Whereas this is also the case for the recent decades, the greatly increased number of estimates obtained from remote sensing reveals that gravimetry-based methods typically arrive at lower mass loss estimates than the other methods. We suggest that strategies for better interconnecting the different methods are needed to ensure progress and to increase the temporal and spatial detail of reliable glacier mass change estimates.

  13. Observation-Based Estimates of Global Glacier Mass Change and Its Contribution to Sea-Level Change.

    PubMed

    Marzeion, B; Champollion, N; Haeberli, W; Langley, K; Leclercq, P; Paul, F

    2017-01-01

    Glaciers have strongly contributed to sea-level rise during the past century and will continue to be an important part of the sea-level budget during the twenty-first century. Here, we review the progress in estimating global glacier mass change from in situ measurements of mass and length changes, remote sensing methods, and mass balance modeling driven by climate observations. For the period before the onset of satellite observations, different strategies to overcome the uncertainty associated with monitoring only a small sample of the world's glaciers have been developed. These methods now yield estimates generally reconcilable with each other within their respective uncertainty margins. Whereas this is also the case for the recent decades, the greatly increased number of estimates obtained from remote sensing reveals that gravimetry-based methods typically arrive at lower mass loss estimates than the other methods. We suggest that strategies for better interconnecting the different methods are needed to ensure progress and to increase the temporal and spatial detail of reliable glacier mass change estimates.

  14. Satellite-based global-ocean mass balance estimates of interannual variability and emerging trends in continental freshwater discharge

    PubMed Central

    Syed, Tajdarul H.; Famiglietti, James S.; Chambers, Don P.; Willis, Josh K.; Hilburn, Kyle

    2010-01-01

    Freshwater discharge from the continents is a key component of Earth’s water cycle that sustains human life and ecosystem health. Surprisingly, owing to a number of socioeconomic and political obstacles, a comprehensive global river discharge observing system does not yet exist. Here we use 13 years (1994–2006) of satellite precipitation, evaporation, and sea level data in an ocean mass balance to estimate freshwater discharge into the global ocean. Results indicate that global freshwater discharge averaged 36,055 km3/y for the study period while exhibiting significant interannual variability driven primarily by El Niño Southern Oscillation cycles. The method described here can ultimately be used to estimate long-term global discharge trends as the records of sea level rise and ocean temperature lengthen. For the relatively short 13-year period studied here, global discharge increased by 540 km3/y2, which was largely attributed to an increase of global-ocean evaporation (768 km3/y2). Sustained growth of these flux rates into long-term trends would provide evidence for increasing intensity of the hydrologic cycle. PMID:20921364

  15. Satellite-based global-ocean mass balance estimates of interannual variability and emerging trends in continental freshwater discharge.

    PubMed

    Syed, Tajdarul H; Famiglietti, James S; Chambers, Don P; Willis, Josh K; Hilburn, Kyle

    2010-10-19

    Freshwater discharge from the continents is a key component of Earth's water cycle that sustains human life and ecosystem health. Surprisingly, owing to a number of socioeconomic and political obstacles, a comprehensive global river discharge observing system does not yet exist. Here we use 13 years (1994-2006) of satellite precipitation, evaporation, and sea level data in an ocean mass balance to estimate freshwater discharge into the global ocean. Results indicate that global freshwater discharge averaged 36,055 km(3)/y for the study period while exhibiting significant interannual variability driven primarily by El Niño Southern Oscillation cycles. The method described here can ultimately be used to estimate long-term global discharge trends as the records of sea level rise and ocean temperature lengthen. For the relatively short 13-year period studied here, global discharge increased by 540 km(3)/y(2), which was largely attributed to an increase of global-ocean evaporation (768 km(3)/y(2)). Sustained growth of these flux rates into long-term trends would provide evidence for increasing intensity of the hydrologic cycle.

  16. Exploiting simultaneous observational constraints on mass and absorption to estimate the global direct radiative forcing of black carbon and brown carbon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, X.; Heald, C. L.; Ridley, D. A.; Schwarz, J. P.; Spackman, J. R.; Perring, A. E.; Coe, H.; Liu, D.; Clarke, A. D.

    2014-10-01

    Atmospheric black carbon (BC) is a leading climate warming agent, yet uncertainties on the global direct radiative forcing (DRF) remain large. Here we expand a global model simulation (GEOS-Chem) of BC to include the absorption enhancement associated with BC coating and separately treat both the aging and physical properties of fossil-fuel and biomass-burning BC. In addition we develop a global simulation of brown carbon (BrC) from both secondary (aromatic) and primary (biomass burning and biofuel) sources. The global mean lifetime of BC in this simulation (4.4 days) is substantially lower compared to the AeroCom I model means (7.3 days), and as a result, this model captures both the mass concentrations measured in near-source airborne field campaigns (ARCTAS, EUCAARI) and surface sites within 30%, and in remote regions (HIPPO) within a factor of 2. We show that the new BC optical properties together with the inclusion of BrC reduces the model bias in absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) at multiple wavelengths by more than 50% at AERONET sites worldwide. However our improved model still underestimates AAOD by a factor of 1.4 to 2.8 regionally, with the largest underestimates in regions influenced by fire. Using the RRTMG model integrated with GEOS-Chem we estimate that the all-sky top-of-atmosphere DRF of BC is +0.13 Wm-2 (0.08 Wm-2 from anthropogenic sources and 0.05 Wm-2 from biomass burning). If we scale our model to match AERONET AAOD observations we estimate the DRF of BC is +0.21 Wm-2, with an additional +0.11 Wm-2 of warming from BrC. Uncertainties in size, optical properties, observations, and emissions suggest an overall uncertainty in BC DRF of -80%/+140%. Our estimates are at the lower end of the 0.2-1.0 Wm-2 range from previous studies, and substantially less than the +0.6 Wm-2 DRF estimated in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report. We suggest that the DRF of BC has previously been overestimated due to the overestimation of the BC lifetime (including the

  17. Exploiting simultaneous observational constraints on mass and absorption to estimate the global direct radiative forcing of black carbon and brown carbon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, X.; Heald, C. L.; Ridley, D. A.; Schwarz, J. P.; Spackman, J. R.; Perring, A. E.; Coe, H.; Liu, D.; Clarke, A. D.

    2014-06-01

    Atmospheric black carbon (BC) is a leading climate warming agent, yet uncertainties on the global direct radiative forcing (DRF) remain large. Here we expand a global model simulation (GEOS-Chem) of BC to include the absorption enhancement associated with BC coating and separately treat both the aging and physical properties of fossil fuel and biomass burning BC. In addition we develop a global simulation of Brown Carbon (BrC) from both secondary (aromatic) and primary (biomass burning and biofuel) sources. The global mean lifetime of BC in this simulation (4.4 days) is substantially lower compared to the AeroCom I model means (7.3 days), and as a result, this model captures both the mass concentrations measured in near-source airborne field campaigns (ARCTAS, EUCAARI) and surface sites within 30%, and in remote regions (HIPPO) within a factor of two. We show that the new BC optical properties together with the inclusion of BrC reduces the model bias in Absorption Aerosol Optical Depth (AAOD) at multiple wavelengths by more than 50% at AERONET sites worldwide. However our improved model still underestimates AAOD by a factor of 1.4 to 2.8 regionally, with largest underestimates in regions influenced by fire. Using the RRTMG model integrated with GEOS-Chem we estimate that the all-sky top-of-atmosphere DRF of BC is +0.13 W m-2 (0.08 W m-2 from anthropogenic sources and 0.05 W m-2 from biomass burning). If we scale our model to match AERONET AAOD observations we estimate the DRF of BC is +0.21 W m-2, with an additional +0.11 W m-2 of warming from BrC. Uncertainties in size, optical properties, observations, and emissions suggest an overall uncertainty in BC DRF of -80% / +140%. Our estimates are at the lower end of the 0.2-1.0 W m-2 range from previous studies, and substantially less than the +0.6 W m-2 DRF estimated in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report. We suggest that the DRF of BC has previously been overestimated due to the overestimation of the BC lifetime and the

  18. Global Warming Estimation from MSU

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, Robert, Jr.

    1999-01-01

    In this study, we have developed time series of global temperature from 1980-97 based on the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) Ch 2 (53.74 GHz) observations taken from polar-orbiting NOAA operational satellites. In order to create these time series, systematic errors (approx. 0.1 K) in the Ch 2 data arising from inter-satellite differences are removed objectively. On the other hand, smaller systematic errors (approx. 0.03 K) in the data due to orbital drift of each satellite cannot be removed objectively. Such errors are expected to remain in the time series and leave an uncertainty in the inferred global temperature trend. With the help of a statistical method, the error in the MSU inferred global temperature trend resulting from orbital drifts and residual inter-satellite differences of all satellites is estimated to be 0.06 K decade. Incorporating this error, our analysis shows that the global temperature increased at a rate of 0.13 +/- 0.06 K decade during 1980-97.

  19. Spacecraft telecommunications system mass estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yuen, J. H.; Sakamoto, L. L.

    1988-01-01

    Mass is the most important limiting parameter for present-day planetary spacecraft design, In fact, the entire design can be characterized by mass. The more efficient the design of the spacecraft, the less mass will be required. The communications system is an essential and integral part of planetary spacecraft. A study is presented of the mass attributable to the communications system for spacecraft designs used in recent missions in an attempt to help guide future design considerations and research and development efforts. The basic approach is to examine the spacecraft by subsystem and allocate a portion of each subsystem to telecommunications. Conceptually, this is to divide the spacecraft into two parts, telecommunications and nontelecommunications. In this way, it is clear what the mass attributable to the communications system is. The percentage of mass is calculated using the actual masses of the spacecraft parts, except in the case of CRAF. In that case, estimated masses are used since the spacecraft was not yet built. The results show that the portion of the spacecraft attributable to telecommunications is substantial. The mass fraction for Voyager, Galileo, and CRAF (Mariner Mark 2) is 34, 19, and 18 percent, respectively. The large reduction of telecommunications mass from Voyager to Galileo is mainly due to the use of a deployable antenna instead of the solid antenna on Voyager.

  20. APPROACH FOR ESTIMATING GLOBAL LANDFILL METHANE EMISSIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report is an overview of available country-specific data and modeling approaches for estimating global landfill methane. Current estimates of global landfill methane indicate that landfills account for between 4 and 15% of the global methane budget. The report describes an ap...

  1. APPROACH FOR ESTIMATING GLOBAL LANDFILL METHANE EMISSIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report is an overview of available country-specific data and modeling approaches for estimating global landfill methane. Current estimates of global landfill methane indicate that landfills account for between 4 and 15% of the global methane budget. The report describes an ap...

  2. Detecting the Sea-Level Fingerprint of Polar Ice Mass Changes: Testing a New Method for Estimating the Sources of Global Sea Level Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hay, C.; Morrow, E.; Kopp, R. E.; Mitrovica, J. X.

    2011-12-01

    Twentieth and 21st century rates of globally averaged sea level (SL) change have commonly been estimated using subsets of tide gauge records and satellite altimetry data. However, these estimates ignore the information embedded in the geographic variability of the measurements. It is now well known, for example, that the rapid melting of an individual ice sheet or glacier will produce a unique geometry, or fingerprint, of SL change. In principle, a suite of such fingerprints, together with a network of modern SL observations with sufficient geographic distribution and signal-to-noise properties, may be used to infer recent sources of meltwater flux. We outline a new formalism based on a Kalman filter for estimating the individual SL contributions to global SL change using tide gauge and satellite altimetry measurements. The Kalman filter is well-suited to such an estimate because: 1) it naturally accommodates missing data, a significant factor for sparse sections of the tide gauge record; 2) it is able to optimally estimate non-stationary trends and the associated uncertainty; and 3) its recursive nature reduces the potentially onerous computational memory requirements caused by large volumes of tide gauge or satellite altimetry data. We first explore the feasibility of extracting source information from SL records by applying the new methodology in a series of detection experiments with synthetic tide gauge and altimetry data sets. Our synthetic data sets are constructed by combining de-trended tide gauge or satellite altimetry records with sea-level fingerprints computed for a variety of Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) and West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) melt scenarios. Additional contributions to SL change, such as the signal due to on-going glacial isostatic adjustment in response to the last ice age and dynamic sea level changes due to thermal expansion of the ocean are also included in the synthetics. We apply our modified Kalman filter to various subsets of

  3. Global Warming Estimation from MSU

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, Robert; Yoo, Jung-Moon

    1998-01-01

    Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer observations in Ch 2 (53.74 GHz) from sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA satellites contain small systematic errors. Some of these errors are time-dependent and some are time-independent. Small errors in Ch 2 data of successive satellites arise from calibration differences. Also, successive NOAA satellites tend to have different Local Equatorial Crossing Times (LECT), which introduce differences in Ch 2 data due to the diurnal cycle. These two sources of systematic error are largely time independent. However, because of atmospheric drag, there can be a drift in the LECT of a given satellite, which introduces time-dependent systematic errors. One of these errors is due to the progressive chance in the diurnal cycle and the other is due to associated chances in instrument heating by the sun. In order to infer global temperature trend from the these MSU data, we have eliminated explicitly the time-independent systematic errors. Both of the time-dependent errors cannot be assessed from each satellite. For this reason, their cumulative effect on the global temperature trend is evaluated implicitly. Christy et al. (1998) (CSL). based on their method of analysis of the MSU Ch 2 data, infer a global temperature cooling trend (-0.046 K per decade) from 1979 to 1997, although their near nadir measurements yield near zero trend (0.003 K/decade). Utilising an independent method of analysis, we infer global temperature warmed by 0.12 +/- 0.06 C per decade from the observations of the MSU Ch 2 during the period 1980 to 1997.

  4. Global Warming Estimation from MSU

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, Robert; Yoo, Jung-Moon

    1998-01-01

    Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer observations in Ch 2 (53.74 GHz) from sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA satellites contain small systematic errors. Some of these errors are time-dependent and some are time-independent. Small errors in Ch 2 data of successive satellites arise from calibration differences. Also, successive NOAA satellites tend to have different Local Equatorial Crossing Times (LECT), which introduce differences in Ch 2 data due to the diurnal cycle. These two sources of systematic error are largely time independent. However, because of atmospheric drag, there can be a drift in the LECT of a given satellite, which introduces time-dependent systematic errors. One of these errors is due to the progressive chance in the diurnal cycle and the other is due to associated chances in instrument heating by the sun. In order to infer global temperature trend from the these MSU data, we have eliminated explicitly the time-independent systematic errors. Both of the time-dependent errors cannot be assessed from each satellite. For this reason, their cumulative effect on the global temperature trend is evaluated implicitly. Christy et al. (1998) (CSL). based on their method of analysis of the MSU Ch 2 data, infer a global temperature cooling trend (-0.046 K per decade) from 1979 to 1997, although their near nadir measurements yield near zero trend (0.003 K/decade). Utilising an independent method of analysis, we infer global temperature warmed by 0.12 +/- 0.06 C per decade from the observations of the MSU Ch 2 during the period 1980 to 1997.

  5. Mass Estimation and Its Applications

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-02-23

    submitted for review: [6] Sunil Aryal, Kai Ming Ting & Jonathan R. Wells. MassCfier: A new generative classifier based on Mass. Submitted to ACM SIGKDD...based on Mass Sunil Aryal Gippsland School of IT Monash University, Australia sunil.aryal@monash.edu Kai Ming Ting Gippsland School of IT Monash...8. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This project is supported by a grant from the Air Force Research Laboratory, under agreement# FA2386-10-1-4052. Sunil Aryal is

  6. Holographic estimate of electromagnetic mass

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Deog Ki

    2015-08-01

    Using the gauge/gravity duality, we calculate the electromagnetic contributions to hadron masses, where mass generates dynamically by strong QCD interactions. Based on the Sakai-Sugimoto model of holographic QCD we find that the electromagnetic mass of proton is 0.48 MeV larger than that of neutron, which is in agreement with recent lattice results. Similarly for pions we obtain m π± - m π 0 = 1.8 MeV, roughly half of the experimental value. The electromagnetic mass of pions is found to be independent of N c and 't Hooft coupling and its scale is set only by the Kaluza-Klein scale of the model, M KK = 949 MeV.

  7. Global and regional aspects for genesis of catastrophic floods - the problems of forecasting and estimates for mass and water balance (surface and groundwater contribution)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trifonova, Tatiana; Arakelian, Sergei; Trifonov, Dmitriy; Abrakhin, Sergei

    2017-04-01

    1. The principal goal of present talk is, to discuss the existing uncertainty and discrepancy between water balance estimation for the area under heavy rain flood, on the one hand from the theoretical approach and reasonable data base due to rainfall going from atmosphere and, on the other hand the real practicle surface water flow parameters measured by some methods and/or fixed by some eye-witness (cf. [1]). The vital item for our discussion is that the last characteristics sometimes may be noticeably grater than the first ones. Our estimations show the grater water mass discharge observation during the events than it could be expected from the rainfall process estimation only [2]. The fact gives us the founding to take into account the groundwater possible contribution to the event. 2. We carried out such analysis, at least, for two catastrophic water events in 2015, i.e. (1) torrential rain and catastrophic floods in Lousiana (USA), June 16-20; (2) Assam flood (India), Aug. 22 - Sept. 8. 3. Groundwater flood of a river terrace discussed e.g. in [3] but in respect when rise of the water table above the land surface occurs coincided with intense rainfall and being as a relatively rare phenomenon. In our hypothesis the principal part of possible groundwater exit to surface is connected with a crack-net system state in earth-crust (including deep layers) as a water transportation system, first, being in variated pressure field for groundwater basin and, second, modified by different reasons ( both suddenly (the Krimsk-city flash flood event, July 2012, Russia) and/or smoothly (the Amur river flood event, Aug.-Sept. 2013, Russia) ). Such reconstruction of 3D crack-net under external reasons (resulting even in local variation of pressures in any crack-section) is a principal item for presented approach. 4. We believe that in some cases the interconnection of floods and preceding earthquakes may occur. The problem discuss by us for certain events ( e.g. in addition to

  8. Mass Transport in Global Geophysical Fluids

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chao, B. F.

    1999-01-01

    Mass transports occurring in the atmosphere-hydrosphere-solid Earth-core system (the "global geophysical fluids") are important geophysical phenomena. They occur on all temporal and spatial scales. Examples include air mass and ocean circulations, tides, hydrological water redistribution, mantle processes such as post-glacial rebound, earthquakes and tectonic motions, and core geodynamo activities. With only a few exceptions on the Earth surface, the temporal history and spatial pattern of such mass transport are often not amenable to direct observations. Space geodesy techniques, however, have the capability of monitoring certain direct consequences of the mass transport, including Earth's rotation variations, gravitational field variations, and the geocenter motion. These techniques include the very-long-baseline interferometry, satellite laser ranging and Doppler tracking, and the Global Positioning System, all entail global observational networks. While considerable advances have been made in observing and understanding of the dynamics of Earth's rotation, only the lowest-degree gravitational variations have been observed and limited knowledge of geocenter motion obtained. New space missions, projects and initiatives promise to further improve the measurements and hence our knowledge about the global mass transports. The latter contributes to our understanding and modeling capability of the geophysical processes that produce and regulate the mass transports, as well as the solid Earth's response to such changes in constraining the modeling of Earth's mechanical properties.

  9. Estimates of the global electric circuit from global thunderstorm activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hutchins, M. L.; Holzworth, R. H.; Brundell, J. B.

    2013-12-01

    The World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) has a global detection efficiency around 10%, however the network has been shown to identify 99% of thunderstorms (Jacobson, et al 2006, using WWLLN data from 2005). To create an estimate of the global electric circuit activity a clustering algorithm is applied to the WWLLN dataset to identify global thunderstorms from 2009 - 2013. The annual, seasonal, and regional thunderstorm activity is investigated with this new WWLLN thunderstorm dataset in order to examine the source behavior of the global electric circuit. From the clustering algorithm the total number of active thunderstorms is found every 30 minutes to create a measure of the global electric circuit source function. The clustering algorithm used is shown to be robust over parameter ranges related to real physical storm sizes and times. The thunderstorm groupings are verified with case study comparisons using satellite and radar data. It is found that there are on average 714 × 81 thunderstorms active at any given time. Similarly the highest average number of thunderstorms occurs in July (783 × 69) with the lowest in January (599 × 76). The annual and diurnal thunderstorm activity seen with the WWLLN thunderstorms is in contrast with the bimodal stroke activity seen by WWLLN. Through utilizing the global coverage and high time resolution of WWLLN, it is shown that the total active thunderstorm count is less than previous estimates based on compiled climatologies.

  10. Global Response to Local Ionospheric Mass Ejection

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, T. E.; Fok, M.-C.; Delcourt, D. C.; Slinker, S. P.; Fedder, J. A.

    2010-01-01

    We revisit a reported "Ionospheric Mass Ejection" using prior event observations to guide a global simulation of local ionospheric outflows, global magnetospheric circulation, and plasma sheet pressurization, and comparing our results with the observed global response. Our simulation framework is based on test particle motions in the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) global circulation model electromagnetic fields. The inner magnetosphere is simulated with the Comprehensive Ring Current Model (CRCM) of Fok and Wolf, driven by the transpolar potential developed by the LFM magnetosphere, and includes an embedded plasmaspheric simulation. Global circulation is stimulated using the observed solar wind conditions for the period 24-25 Sept 1998. This period begins with the arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection, initially with northward, but later with southward interplanetary magnetic field. Test particles are launched from the ionosphere with fluxes specified by local empirical relationships of outflow to electrodynamic and particle precipitation imposed by the MIlD simulation. Particles are tracked until they are lost from the system downstream or into the atmosphere, using the full equations of motion. Results are compared with the observed ring current and a simulation of polar and auroral wind outflows driven globally by solar wind dynamic pressure. We find good quantitative agreement with the observed ring current, and reasonable qualitative agreement with earlier simulation results, suggesting that the solar wind driven global simulation generates realistic energy dissipation in the ionosphere and that the Strangeway relations provide a realistic local outflow description.

  11. Fluid flow through seamounts and implications for global mass fluxes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, Robert N.; Fisher, Andrew T.; Chapman, David S.

    2004-08-01

    Seamounts contribute to globally significant hydrothermal fluxes, but the dynamics and impacts of fluid flow through these features are poorly understood. Numerical models of coupled heat and fluid flow illustrate how seamounts induce local convection in the oceanic crust. We consider idealized axisymmetric seamounts and calculate mass and heat fluxes by using a coupled heat- and fluid-flow model. By using P. Wessel's global database of ˜15,000 seamounts identified through satellite gravimetry, we estimate that the mass flux associated with seamounts is ˜1014 kg/yr, a number comparable to estimated regional mass fluxes through mid-ocean ridges and flanks. In addition, the seamount-generated advective heat flux may be locally significant well beyond the 65 Ma average age at which advective lithospheric heat loss on ridge flanks ends. These flows may be important for facilitating geochemical exchange between the crust and ocean and may affect subseafloor microbial ecosystems.

  12. Estimating Global Precipitation for Science and Application

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huffman, George J.

    2013-01-01

    Over the past two decades there has been vigorous development in the satellite assets and the algorithms necessary to estimate precipitation around the globe. In particular the highly successful joint NASAJAXA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, also joint between NASA and JAXA, have driven these issues. At the same time, the long-running Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) continues to extend a stable, climate-oriented view of global precipitation. This talk will provide an overview of these projects and the wider international community of precipitation datasets, sketch plans for next-generation products, and provide some examples of the best use for the different products. One key lesson learned is that different data sets are needed to address the variety of issues that need precipitation data, including detailed 3-D views of hurricanes, flash flood forecasting, drought analysis, and global change.

  13. Volcanism, global catastrophe and mass mortality

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Francis, P. W.; Burke, K.

    1988-01-01

    The effects of very large volcanic eruptions are well documented in many studies, mostly based on observations made on three historic eruptions, Laki 1783; Tambora 1815 and Krakatau 1883. Such eruptions have effects that are catastrophic locally and measurable globally, but it is not clear that even the largest volcanic eruptions have had global catastrophic effects, nor caused mass extinctions. Two different types of volcanic eruption were considered as likely to have the most serious widespread effects: large silicic explosive eruptions producing hundreds or thousands of cubic kilometers of pyroclastic materials, and effusive basaltic eruptions producing of approximately 100 cubic kilometers of lava. In both cases, the global effects are climatic, and attributable to production of stratospheric aerosols. Other possibilities need to be explored. Recent research on global change has emphasized the extreme sensitivity of the links between oceanic circulation, atmospheric circulation and climate. In particular, it was argued that the pattern of ocean current circulation (which strongly influences climate) is unstable; it may rapidly flip from one pattern to a different one, with global climatic consequences. If volcanism has been a factor in global environmental change and a cause of mass extinctions, it seems most likely that it has done so by providing a trigger to other processes, for example by driving oceanic circulation from one mode to another.

  14. Estimating Ionosphere Conductance on Global Spatial Scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waters, C. L.; Anderson, B. J.; Green, D. L.; Korth, H.

    2014-12-01

    The ionosphere represents the Earthward boundary of space. For large scale processes, the height integrated conductivities (conductances) of the ionosphere are known to modulate the energy transfer between the magnetosphere and ionosphere. Estimating the Pedersen and Hall conductances on a global scale, particularly in the auroral regions, is fundamental to understanding the dynamics of the high latitude ionosphere and thermosphere. Experimental measurements with sufficient spatial coverage and with time scales of order of minutes or less are required. While the spatial coverage of HF radar and spacecraft measurements has recently improved, it turns out that the most challenging aspects for global estimates of ionosphere conductance are directly related to ground-based magnetometer data. The Iridium satellite constellation consists of more than 70 satellites in circular, polar, 780 km altitude orbits which provides a unique opportunity to obtain in-situ measurements of the global distribution of the Birkeland currents and associated magnetic field perturbations. In this paper, examples and challenges for combining the Iridium satellite, HF radar and ground magnetometer data in order to produce estimates of the Pedersen and Hall conductances on global spatial scales will be presented. We discuss limiting factors in the methodology and some possible alternatives.

  15. Advancing methods for global crop area estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, M. L.; Hansen, M.; Adusei, B.; Stehman, S. V.; Becker-Reshef, I.; Ernst, C.; Noel, J.

    2012-12-01

    Cropland area estimation is a challenge, made difficult by the variety of cropping systems, including crop types, management practices, and field sizes. A MODIS derived indicator mapping product (1) developed from 16-day MODIS composites has been used to target crop type at national scales for the stratified sampling (2) of higher spatial resolution data for a standardized approach to estimate cultivated area. A global prototype is being developed using soybean, a global commodity crop with recent LCLUC dynamic and a relatively unambiguous spectral signature, for the United States, Argentina, Brazil, and China representing nearly ninety percent of soybean production. Supervised classification of soy cultivated area is performed for 40 km2 sample blocks using time-series, Landsat imagery. This method, given appropriate data for representative sampling with higher spatial resolution, represents an efficient and accurate approach for large area crop type estimation. Results for the United States sample blocks have exhibited strong agreement with the National Agricultural Statistics Service's (NASS's) Cropland Data Layer (CDL). A confusion matrix showed a 91.56% agreement and a kappa of .67 between the two products. Field measurements and RapidEye imagery have been collected for the USA, Brazil and Argentina in further assessing product accuracies. The results of this research will demonstrate the value of MODIS crop type indicator products and Landsat sample data in estimating soybean cultivated area at national scales, enabling an internally consistent global assessment of annual soybean production.

  16. Improving lensing cluster mass estimate with flexion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cardone, V. F.; Vicinanza, M.; Er, X.; Maoli, R.; Scaramella, R.

    2016-11-01

    Gravitational lensing has long been considered as a valuable tool to determine the total mass of galaxy clusters. The shear profile, as inferred from the statistics of ellipticity of background galaxies, allows us to probe the cluster intermediate and outer regions, thus determining the virial mass estimate. However, the mass sheet degeneracy and the need for a large number of background galaxies motivate the search for alternative tracers which can break the degeneracy among model parameters and hence improve the accuracy of the mass estimate. Lensing flexion, i.e. the third derivative of the lensing potential, has been suggested as a good answer to the above quest since it probes the details of the mass profile. We investigate here whether this is indeed the case considering jointly using weak lensing, magnification and flexion. We use a Fisher matrix analysis to forecast the relative improvement in the mass accuracy for different assumptions on the shear and flexion signal-to- noise (S/N) ratio also varying the cluster mass, redshift, and ellipticity. It turns out that the error on the cluster mass may be reduced up to a factor of ˜2 for reasonable values of the flexion S/N ratio. As a general result, we get that the improvement in mass accuracy is larger for more flattened haloes, but it extracting general trends is difficult because of the many parameters at play. We nevertheless find that flexion is as efficient as magnification to increase the accuracy in both mass and concentration determination.

  17. Estimating pre-industrial global temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hawkins, Ed; Ortega, Pablo; Suckling, Emma; Schurer, Andrew; Hegerl, Gabi; Jones, Phil; Joshi, Manoj; Osborn, Tim; Mignot, Juliette; Thorne, Peter; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan

    2016-04-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process has recently agreed to try and limit global temperature rise to `well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels'. But what period is `pre-industrial'? Remarkably, perhaps, this is not defined within the UNFCCC or its many agreements and protocols. Neither was the term used in the IPCC's fifth assessment report (AR5) when discussing when particular temperature levels might be reached, due to the lack of a robust definition. Here, we discuss the important factors to consider when defining a period to call pre-industrial, based on estimates of historical radiative forcings and the availability of climate observations. There is no perfect period to choose, but we suggest that 1720-1800 is the optimal choice. We also attempt to estimate the change in global temperatures since this pre-industrial period using a range of approaches based on observations, radiative forcings, global climate model simulations and proxy evidence. We discuss how such an assessment might be improved in future and conclude that 2015 was likely the first year in which global temperatures were more than 1°C above pre-industrial levels.

  18. Global estimates of fresh submarine groundwater discharge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luijendijk, Elco; Gleeson, Tom; Moosdorf, Nils

    2016-04-01

    Fresh submarine groundwater discharge, the flow of fresh groundwater to oceans, may be a significant contributor to the water and chemical budgets of the world's oceans. We present new estimates of the flux of fresh groundwater to the world's oceans. We couple density-dependent numerical simulations of generic models of coastal basins with geospatial databases of hydrogeological parameters and topography to resolve the rate of terrestrially-derived submarine groundwater discharge globally. We compare the model results to a new global compilation of submarine groundwater discharge observations. The results show that terrestrially-derived SGD is highly sensitive to permeability. In most watersheds only a small fraction of groundwater recharge contributes to submarine groundwater discharge, with most recharge instead contributing to terrestrial discharge in the form of baseflow or evapotranspiration. Fresh submarine groundwater discharge is only significant in watersheds that contain highly permeable sediments, such as coarse-grained siliciclastic sediments, karstic carbonates or volcanic deposits. Our estimates of global submarine groundwater discharge are much lower than most previous estimates. However, many tropical and volcanic islands are hotspots of submarine groundwater discharge and solute fluxes towards the oceans. The comparison of model results and data highlights the spatial variability of SGD and the difficulty of scaling up observations.

  19. Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA): stellar mass estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, Edward N.; Hopkins, Andrew M.; Baldry, Ivan K.; Brown, Michael J. I.; Driver, Simon P.; Kelvin, Lee S.; Hill, David T.; Robotham, Aaron S. G.; Bland-Hawthorn, Joss; Jones, D. H.; Sharp, R. G.; Thomas, Daniel; Liske, Jochen; Loveday, Jon; Norberg, Peder; Peacock, J. A.; Bamford, Steven P.; Brough, Sarah; Colless, Matthew; Cameron, Ewan; Conselice, Christopher J.; Croom, Scott M.; Frenk, C. S.; Gunawardhana, Madusha; Kuijken, Konrad; Nichol, R. C.; Parkinson, H. R.; Phillipps, S.; Pimbblet, K. A.; Popescu, C. C.; Prescott, Matthew; Sutherland, W. J.; Tuffs, R. J.; van Kampen, Eelco; Wijesinghe, D.

    2011-12-01

    This paper describes the first catalogue of photometrically derived stellar mass estimates for intermediate-redshift (z < 0.65; median z= 0.2) galaxies in the Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) spectroscopic redshift survey. These masses, as well as the full set of ancillary stellar population parameters, will be made public as part of GAMA data release 2. Although the GAMA database does include near-infrared (NIR) photometry, we show that the quality of our stellar population synthesis fits is significantly poorer when these NIR data are included. Further, for a large fraction of galaxies, the stellar population parameters inferred from the optical-plus-NIR photometry are formally inconsistent with those inferred from the optical data alone. This may indicate problems in our stellar population library, or NIR data issues, or both; these issues will be addressed for future versions of the catalogue. For now, we have chosen to base our stellar mass estimates on optical photometry only. In light of our decision to ignore the available NIR data, we examine how well stellar mass can be constrained based on optical data alone. We use generic properties of stellar population synthesis models to demonstrate that restframe colour alone is in principle a very good estimator of stellar mass-to-light ratio, M*/Li. Further, we use the observed relation between restframe (g-i) and M*/Li for real GAMA galaxies to argue that, modulo uncertainties in the stellar evolution models themselves, (g-i) colour can in practice be used to estimate M*/Li to an accuracy of ≲0.1 dex (1σ). This 'empirically calibrated' (g-i)-M*/Li relation offers a simple and transparent means for estimating galaxies' stellar masses based on minimal data, and so provides a solid basis for other surveys to compare their results to z≲0.4 measurements from GAMA.

  20. Local versus global strategies in multiparameter estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knott, P. A.; Proctor, T. J.; Hayes, A. J.; Ralph, J. F.; Kok, P.; Dunningham, J. A.

    2016-12-01

    We consider the problem of estimating multiple phases using a multimode interferometer. In this setting we show that while global strategies that estimate all the phases simultaneously can lead to high precision gains, the same enhancements can be obtained with local strategies in which each phase is estimated individually. A key resource for the enhancement is shown to be a large particle-number variance in the probe state, and for states where the total particle number is not fixed, this can be obtained for mode-separable states, and the phases can be read out with local measurements. This has important practical implications because local strategies are generally preferred to global ones for their robustness to local estimation failure, flexibility in the distribution of resources, and comparatively easier state preparation. We obtain our results by analyzing two different schemes: the first uses a set of interferometers, which can be used as a model for a network of quantum sensors, and the second looks at measuring a number of phases relative to a reference, which is concerned primarily with quantum imaging.

  1. Global Civil Aviation Black Carbon Particle Mass and Number Emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stettler, M. E. J.

    2015-12-01

    Black carbon (BC) is a product of incomplete combustion emitted by aircraft engines. In the atmosphere, BC particles strongly absorb incoming solar radiation and influence cloud formation processes leading to highly uncertain, but likely net positive warming of the earth's atmosphere. At cruise altitude, BC particle number emissions can influence the concentration of ice nuclei that can lead to contrail formation, with significant and highly uncertainty climate impacts. BC particles emitted by aircraft engines also degrade air quality in the vicinity of airports and globally. A significant contribution to the uncertainty in environmental impacts of aviation BC emissions is the uncertainty in emissions inventories. Previous work has shown that global aviation BC mass emissions are likely to have been underestimated by a factor of three. In this study, we present an updated global BC particle number inventory and evaluate parameters that contribute to uncertainty using global sensitivity analysis techniques. The method of calculating particle number from mass utilises a description of the mobility of fractal aggregates and uses the geometric mean diameter, geometric standard deviation, mass-mobility exponent, primary particle diameter and material density to relate the particle number concentration to the total mass concentration. Model results show good agreement with existing measurements of aircraft BC emissions at ground level and at cruise altitude. It is hoped that the results of this study can be applied to estimate direct and indirect climate impacts of aviation BC emissions in future studies.

  2. Estimating human effects on global extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wright, D. H.

    1987-12-01

    A quantitative technique for estimating extinctions due to clearing of natural ecosystems is described. Applied on a global scale, the method yields preliminary figures on extinctions of flowering plants, butterflies, land birds and land mammals ranging from 5.4 to 15.3% for the period from the beginning of agriculture until the year 1980. Actual numbers of extinctions of mammals and birds to date are much lower, possibly in part due to a tendency for the technique to overestimate species loss at the global scale. However, delayed extinctions of species whose populations have been reduced but not exterminated by habitat destruction are likely, suggesting that human impacts may be more serious than they currently appear.

  3. Estimation of ground state pentaquark masses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, K.; Ritjoho, N.; Srisuphaphon, S.; Yan, Y.

    2014-04-01

    Permutation groups are applied to analyze the symmetries of multiquark systems and wave functions of pentaquark states are constructed systematically in the language of Yamanouchi basis. We estimate the mass of baryons in the constituent quark model with one-gluon-exchange interaction, assuming that baryons consist of the q3 component as well as the q4/line q pentaquark component.

  4. Estimating the mass of Saturn's B ring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hedman, Matthew M.; Nicholson, Philip D.

    2016-10-01

    The B ring is the brightest and most opaque of Saturn's rings, but it is also amongst the least well understood because basic parameters like its surface mass density have been poorly constrained. Elsewhere in the rings, spiral density waves driven by resonances with Saturn's various moons provide precise and robust mass density estimates, but for most the B ring extremely high opacities and strong stochastic optical depth variations obscure the signal from these wave patterns. We have developed a new wavelet-based technique that combines data from multiple stellar occultations (observed by the Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer instrument onboard the Cassini spacecraft) that has allowed us to identify signals that appear to be due to waves generated by the strongest resonances in the central and outer B ring. These wave signatures yield new estimates of the B-ring's mass density and indicate that the B-ring's total mass could be quite low, between 1/3 and 2/3 the mass of Saturn's moon Mimas.

  5. Scaling Stellar Mass Estimates of Dwarf Galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carr, Brandon Michael; McQuinn, Kristen B.; Cannon, John M.; Dalcanton, Julianne; Dolphin, Andrew E.; Skillman, Evan D.; Williams, Benjamin F.; van Zee, Liese

    2017-01-01

    Hubble Space Telescope (HST) optical imaging of resolved stellar populations has been used to constrain the star formation history (SFH) and chemical evolution of many nearby dwarf galaxies. However, even for dwarf galaxies, the angle subtended by nearby systems can be greater than the HST field of view. Thus, estimates of stellar mass from the HST footprint do not accurately represent the total mass of the system, impacting how SFH results can be used in holistic comparisons of galaxy properties. Here, we use the SFHs of dwarfs combined with stellar population synthesis models to determine mass-to-light ratios for individual galaxies, and compare these values with measured infrared luminosities from Spitzer IRAC data. In this way, we determine what fraction of mass is not included in the HST field of view. To test our methodology, we focus on dwarfs whose stellar disks are contained within the HST observations. Then, we also apply this method to galaxies with larger angular sizes to scale the stellar masses accordingly.

  6. A reconciled estimate of ice-sheet mass balance.

    PubMed

    Shepherd, Andrew; Ivins, Erik R; A, Geruo; Barletta, Valentina R; Bentley, Mike J; Bettadpur, Srinivas; Briggs, Kate H; Bromwich, David H; Forsberg, René; Galin, Natalia; Horwath, Martin; Jacobs, Stan; Joughin, Ian; King, Matt A; Lenaerts, Jan T M; Li, Jilu; Ligtenberg, Stefan R M; Luckman, Adrian; Luthcke, Scott B; McMillan, Malcolm; Meister, Rakia; Milne, Glenn; Mouginot, Jeremie; Muir, Alan; Nicolas, Julien P; Paden, John; Payne, Antony J; Pritchard, Hamish; Rignot, Eric; Rott, Helmut; Sørensen, Louise Sandberg; Scambos, Ted A; Scheuchl, Bernd; Schrama, Ernst J O; Smith, Ben; Sundal, Aud V; van Angelen, Jan H; van de Berg, Willem J; van den Broeke, Michiel R; Vaughan, David G; Velicogna, Isabella; Wahr, John; Whitehouse, Pippa L; Wingham, Duncan J; Yi, Donghui; Young, Duncan; Zwally, H Jay

    2012-11-30

    We combined an ensemble of satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry data sets using common geographical regions, time intervals, and models of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment to estimate the mass balance of Earth's polar ice sheets. We find that there is good agreement between different satellite methods--especially in Greenland and West Antarctica--and that combining satellite data sets leads to greater certainty. Between 1992 and 2011, the ice sheets of Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula changed in mass by -142 ± 49, +14 ± 43, -65 ± 26, and -20 ± 14 gigatonnes year(-1), respectively. Since 1992, the polar ice sheets have contributed, on average, 0.59 ± 0.20 millimeter year(-1) to the rate of global sea-level rise.

  7. A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shepherd, Andrew; Ivins, Erik R.; A, Geruo; Barletta, Valentina R.; Bentley, Mike J.; Bettadpur, Srinivas; Briggs, Kate H.; Bromwich, David H.; Forsberg, René; Galin, Natalia; Horwath, Martin; Jacobs, Stan; Joughin, Ian; King, Matt A.; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Li, Jilu; Ligtenberg, Stefan R. M.; Luckman, Adrian; Luthcke, Scott B.; McMillan, Malcolm; Meister, Rakia; Milne, Glenn; Mouginot, Jeremie; Muir, Alan; Nicolas, Julien P.; Paden, John; Payne, Antony J.; Pritchard, Hamish; Rignot, Eric; Rott, Helmut; Sørensen, Louise Sandberg; Scambos, Ted A.; Scheuchl, Bernd; Schrama, Ernst J. O.; Smith, Ben; Sundal, Aud V.; van Angelen, Jan H.; van de Berg, Willem J.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Vaughan, David G.; Velicogna, Isabella; Wahr, John; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; Wingham, Duncan J.; Yi, Donghui; Young, Duncan; Zwally, H. Jay

    2012-11-01

    We combined an ensemble of satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry data sets using common geographical regions, time intervals, and models of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment to estimate the mass balance of Earth’s polar ice sheets. We find that there is good agreement between different satellite methods—especially in Greenland and West Antarctica—and that combining satellite data sets leads to greater certainty. Between 1992 and 2011, the ice sheets of Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula changed in mass by -142 ± 49, +14 ± 43, -65 ± 26, and -20 ± 14 gigatonnes year-1, respectively. Since 1992, the polar ice sheets have contributed, on average, 0.59 ± 0.20 millimeter year-1 to the rate of global sea-level rise.

  8. A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shepherd, Andrew; Ivins, Erik R.; Geruo, A.; Barletta, Valentia R.; Bentley, Mike J.; Bettadpur, Srinivas; Briggs, Kate H.; Bromwich, David H.; Forsberg, Rene; Galin, Natalia; hide

    2012-01-01

    We combined an ensemble of satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry data sets using common geographical regions, time intervals, and models of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment to estimate the mass balance of Earth's polar ice sheets. We find that there is good agreement between different satellite methods-especially in Greenland and West Antarctica-and that combining satellite data sets leads to greater certainty. Between 1992 and 2011, the ice sheets of Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula changed in mass by -142 plus or minus 49, +14 plus or minus 43, -65 plus or minus 26, and -20 plus or minus 14 gigatonnes year(sup -1), respectively. Since 1992, the polar ice sheets have contributed, on average, 0.59 plus or minus 0.20 millimeter year(sup -1) to the rate of global sea-level rise.

  9. A global biogeochemical mass balance model for vanadium

    SciTech Connect

    Hope, B.K.

    1995-12-31

    Vanadium is a major trace metal in fossil fuels and combustion of these materials provides a significant source of vanadium in the environment. Close correlation exists between atmospheric vanadium concentration and fuel consumption, so that atmospheric vanadium pentoxide has been used as an indicator of human industrial activity. Little vanadium is retained in refined oil products, and vanadium contamination occurs as fallout from refining operations and burning of residual oils. This is the major cause for the approximate doubling of the environmental flux of vanadium as a result of human activity; other sources are products of coal combustion, leachates, and effluents from mining and milling of uranium and titanium. It was estimated in 1975 that the injection of vanadium into the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources equaled the input from natural sources. Such evidence that environmental levels of vanadium are increasing has raised concern over the injection of vanadium into the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources. A simple global mass balance model was developed to demonstrate the influence of anthropogenic vanadium on the global distribution of this trace metal. Vanadium in particulate emissions owing to man`s industrial activities were estimated to comprise {approx} 53% of total atmosphere vanadium loading and exceeded natural continental or volcanogenic dust by only a narrow margin. Oceanic deposition of vanadium adhering to anthropogenic particles was estimated to comprise {approx} 5% of total ocean vanadium loading. There is no suggestion that these inputs of anthropogenic vanadium pose a significant global environmental threat. It is entirely possible, however, that anthropogenic vanadium inputs could pose an environmental hazard given a more restricted area and a specific set of unfavorable circumstances.

  10. An estimate of global absolute dynamic topography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tai, C.-K.; Wunsch, C.

    1984-01-01

    The absolute dynamic topography of the world ocean is estimated from the largest scales to a short-wavelength cutoff of about 6700 km for the period July through September, 1978. The data base consisted of the time-averaged sea-surface topography determined by Seasat and geoid estimates made at the Goddard Space Flight Center. The issues are those of accuracy and resolution. Use of the altimetric surface as a geoid estimate beyond the short-wavelength cutoff reduces the spectral leakage in the estimated dynamic topography from erroneous small-scale geoid estimates without contaminating the low wavenumbers. Comparison of the result with a similarly filtered version of Levitus' (1982) historical average dynamic topography shows good qualitative agreement. There is quantitative disagreement, but it is within the estimated errors of both methods of calculation.

  11. Global Warming Estimation From Microwave Sounding Unit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Dalu, G.

    1998-01-01

    Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) Ch 2 data sets, collected from sequential, polar-orbiting, Sun-synchronous National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration operational satellites, contain systematic calibration errors that are coupled to the diurnal temperature cycle over the globe. Since these coupled errors in MSU data differ between successive satellites, it is necessary to make compensatory adjustments to these multisatellite data sets in order to determine long-term global temperature change. With the aid of the observations during overlapping periods of successive satellites, we can determine such adjustments and use them to account for the coupled errors in the long-term time series of MSU Ch 2 global temperature. In turn, these adjusted MSU Ch 2 data sets can be used to yield global temperature trend. In a pioneering study, Spencer and Christy (SC) (1990) developed a procedure to derive the global temperature trend from MSU Ch 2 data. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedure, the magnitude of the coupled errors is not determined explicitly. Furthermore, based on some assumptions, these coupled errors are eliminated in three separate steps. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedures. Based on our analysis, we find there is a global warming of 0.23+/-0.12 K between 1980 and 1991. Also, in this study, the time series of global temperature anomalies constructed by removing the global mean annual temperature cycle compares favorably with a similar

  12. A Global Assessment of Accelerations in Mass Transport of Surface Geophysical Fluid

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, X.; Heflin, M. B.

    2015-12-01

    Mass transport in the Earth's surface geophysical fluid layer has complex spatiotemporal patterns. The GRACE gravity mission provides an unprecedented global capability to monitor this important process with high accuracy and resolution. Accurate assessments of global mass transport patterns and budget also depend critically on changes in degree-1 coefficients (geocenter motion) and in Earth's dynamic oblateness coefficient J2. We combine GRACE measurements, time series of GNSS data, JPL's ECCO ocean bottom pressure model, and high-resolution loose a priori models of mass variation regimes to derive complete spherical harmonic spectra of detrended mass variations up to degree and order 180. Mass accelerations are estimated along with linear, annual, semiannual, and the 161-day tidal aliasing components from coefficient time series. The appropriateness of a priori information and estimate uncertainties are further evaluated by variance component estimation and residual statistics of fitting the time series. During the GRACE data period of 2002.2-2015.0, accelerations in mass transport are geographically uneven with significant positive or negative accelerations in various parts of the world. While Greenland and West Antarctica show strong accelerated mass losses, Alaska and the Arctic Ocean have significant positive accelerations with reversals of earlier mass loss trends. No evidence of non-Arctic global mean sea level acceleration due to mass has been found. Depending on region, some estimated accelerations are also not steady over time due to large irregular and interannual variations.

  13. Topics in global convergence of density estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Devroye, L.

    1982-01-01

    The problem of estimating a density f on R sup d from a sample Xz(1),...,X(n) of independent identically distributed random vectors is critically examined, and some recent results in the field are reviewed. The following statements are qualified: (1) For any sequence of density estimates f(n), any arbitrary slow rate of convergence to 0 is possible for E(integral/f(n)-fl); (2) In theoretical comparisons of density estimates, integral/f(n)-f/ should be used and not integral/f(n)-f/sup p, p 1; and (3) For most reasonable nonparametric density estimates, either there is convergence of integral/f(n)-f/ (and then the convergence is in the strongest possible sense for all f), or there is no convergence (even in the weakest possible sense for a single f). There is no intermediate situation.

  14. Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA): estimating galaxy group masses via caustic analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alpaslan, Mehmet; Robotham, Aaron S. G.; Driver, Simon; Norberg, Peder; Peacock, John A.; Baldry, Ivan; Bland-Hawthorn, Joss; Brough, Sarah; Hopkins, Andrew M.; Kelvin, Lee S.; Liske, Jochen; Loveday, Jon; Merson, Alexander; Nichol, Robert C.; Pimbblet, Kevin

    2012-11-01

    We have generated complementary halo mass estimates for all the groups in the Galaxy And Mass Assembly Galaxy Group Catalogue (GAMA G3Cv1) using a modified caustic mass estimation algorithm, originally developed by Diaferio & Geller. We calibrate the algorithm by applying it on a series of nine GAMA mock galaxy light cones and investigate the effects of using different definitions for group centre and size. We select the set of parameters that provide median-unbiased mass estimates when tested on mocks, and generate mass estimates for the real group catalogue. We find that on average, the caustic mass estimates agree with dynamical mass estimates within a factor of 2 in 90.8 ± 6.1 per cent groups and compare equally well to velocity dispersion based mass estimates for both high- and low-multiplicity groups over the full range of masses probed by the G3Cv1.

  15. Estimation of global radiation for Sri Lanka

    SciTech Connect

    Samuel, T.D.M.A. )

    1991-01-01

    There are several formulae that relate global radiation to other climatological parameters such as sunshine hours, relative humidity, maximum temperature, and average temperature. In this paper a generally accepted modified form of the formula first introduced by Angstrom is used. It relates global radiation to hours of sunshine that have been measured for several years in many of the meteorological stations in Sri Lanka. The annual average of the ratio of the hours of sunshine to the length of the day, i.e., annual average of (S/Z), is found to vary considerably and to lie in the range 0.42-0.66. Fre're et al., have found, using data from many parts of the world, a general graphical representation for the variation of a and b with annual average (S/Z) lying in the range 0.28 to 0.75. This variation of a and b can be expressed as quadratic functions are modified and used to determine a and b values for stations in Sri Lanka.

  16. Estimates of global dew collection potential

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vuollekoski, H.; Vogt, M.; Sinclair, V. A.; Duplissy, J.; Järvinen, H.; Kyrö, E.-M.; Makkonen, R.; Petäjä, T.; Prisle, N. L.; Räisänen, P.; Sipilä, M.; Ylhäisi, J.; Kulmala, M.

    2014-08-01

    The global potential for collecting usable water from dew on an artificial collector sheet was investigated by utilising 34 years of meteorological reanalysis data as input to a dew formation model. Dew formation was found to be frequent and common, but daily yields were mostly below 0.1 mm. Nevertheless, some water-stressed areas such as the coastal regions of northern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula show potential for large-scale dew harvesting, as the yearly yield can reach up to 100 L m-2 for a commonly used polyethylene foil. Statistically significant trends were found in the data, indicating overall changes in dew yields between ±15% over the investigated time period.

  17. The effects of missing data on global ozone estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Drewry, J. W.; Robbins, J. L.

    1981-01-01

    The effects of missing data and model truncation on estimates of the global mean, zonal distribution, and global distribution of ozone are considered. It is shown that missing data can introduce biased estimates with errors that are not accounted for in the accuracy calculations of empirical modeling techniques. Data-fill techniques are introduced and used for evaluating error bounds and constraining the estimate in areas of sparse and missing data. It is found that the accuracy of the global mean estimate is more dependent on data distribution than model size. Zonal features can be accurately described by 7th order models over regions of adequate data distribution. Data variance accounted for by higher order models appears to represent climatological features of columnar ozone rather than pure error. Data-fill techniques can prevent artificial feature generation in regions of sparse or missing data without degrading high order estimates over dense data regions.

  18. The effects of missing data on global ozone estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Drewry, J. W.; Robbins, J. L.

    1981-01-01

    The effects of missing data and model truncation on estimates of the global mean, zonal distribution, and global distribution of ozone are considered. It is shown that missing data can introduce biased estimates with errors that are not accounted for in the accuracy calculations of empirical modeling techniques. Data-fill techniques are introduced and used for evaluating error bounds and constraining the estimate in areas of sparse and missing data. It is found that the accuracy of the global mean estimate is more dependent on data distribution than model size. Zonal features can be accurately described by 7th order models over regions of adequate data distribution. Data variance accounted for by higher order models appears to represent climatological features of columnar ozone rather than pure error. Data-fill techniques can prevent artificial feature generation in regions of sparse or missing data without degrading high order estimates over dense data regions.

  19. Integrated Estimates of Global Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration

    SciTech Connect

    Thomson, Allison M.; Izaurralde, R Cesar; Smith, Steven J.; Clarke, Leon E.

    2008-02-01

    Assessing the contribution of terrestrial carbon sequestration to international climate change mitigation requires integration across scientific and disciplinary boundaries. As part of a scenario analysis for the US Climate Change Technology Program, measurements and geographic data were used to develop terrestrial carbon sequestration estimates for agricultural soil carbon, reforestation and pasture management. These estimates were then applied in the MiniCAM integrated assessment model to evaluate mitigation strategies within policy and technology scenarios aimed at achieving atmospheric CO2 stabilization by 2100. Adoption of terrestrial sequestration practices is based on competition for land and economic markets for carbon. Terrestrial sequestration reach a peak combined rate of 0.5 to 0.7 Gt carbon yr-1 in mid-century with contributions from agricultural soil (0.21 Gt carbon yr-1), reforestation (0.31 Gt carbon yr-1) and pasture (0.15 Gt carbon yr-1). Sequestration rates vary over time period and with different technology and policy scenarios. The combined contribution of terrestrial sequestration over the next century ranges from 31 to 41 GtC. The contribution of terrestrial sequestration to mitigation is highest early in the century, reaching up to 20% of total carbon mitigation. This analysis provides insight into the behavior of terrestrial carbon mitigation options in the presence and absence of climate change mitigation policies.

  20. Estimation and Validation of Oceanic Mass Circulation from the GRACE Mission

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boy, J.-P.; Rowlands, D. D.; Sabaka, T. J.; Luthcke, S. B.; Lemoine, F. G.

    2011-01-01

    Since the launch of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) in March 2002, the Earth's surface mass variations have been monitored with unprecedented accuracy and resolution. Compared to the classical spherical harmonic solutions, global high-resolution mascon solutions allows the retrieval of mass variations with higher spatial and temporal sampling (2 degrees and 10 days). We present here the validation of the GRACE global mascon solutions by comparing mass estimates to a set of about 100 ocean bottom pressure (OSP) records, and show that the forward modelling of continental hydrology prior to the inversion of the K-band range rate data allows better estimates of ocean mass variations. We also validate our GRACE results to OSP variations modelled by different state-of-the-art ocean general circulation models, including ECCO (Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean) and operational and reanalysis from the MERCATOR project.

  1. Mass and volume contributions to twentieth-century global sea level rise.

    PubMed

    Miller, Laury; Douglas, Bruce C

    2004-03-25

    The rate of twentieth-century global sea level rise and its causes are the subjects of intense controversy. Most direct estimates from tide gauges give 1.5-2.0 mm yr(-1), whereas indirect estimates based on the two processes responsible for global sea level rise, namely mass and volume change, fall far below this range. Estimates of the volume increase due to ocean warming give a rate of about 0.5 mm yr(-1) (ref. 8) and the rate due to mass increase, primarily from the melting of continental ice, is thought to be even smaller. Therefore, either the tide gauge estimates are too high, as has been suggested recently, or one (or both) of the mass and volume estimates is too low. Here we present an analysis of sea level measurements at tide gauges combined with observations of temperature and salinity in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans close to the gauges. We find that gauge-determined rates of sea level rise, which encompass both mass and volume changes, are two to three times higher than the rates due to volume change derived from temperature and salinity data. Our analysis supports earlier studies that put the twentieth-century rate in the 1.5-2.0 mm yr(-1) range, but more importantly it suggests that mass increase plays a larger role than ocean warming in twentieth-century global sea level rise.

  2. Estimates of global research productivity in virology.

    PubMed

    Falagas, Matthew E; Karavasiou, Antonia I; Bliziotis, Ioannis A

    2005-06-01

    The quantity and quality of published research in the field of Virology by different world regions was estimated in this study. Using the PubMed database, articles from journals included in the "Virology" category of the "Journal Citation Reports" database of the Institute for Scientific Information for the period 1995-2003 were retrieved. The world was divided into nine regions based on geographic, economic, and scientific criteria. Data on the country of origin of the research was available for 33,425 out of 33,712 articles (99.2% of all articles from the included journals). USA exceeds all other world regions in research production for the period studied (42% of total articles), with Western Europe ranking second (35.7%). The mean impact factor in articles published in Virology journals was highest for the USA (4.60), while it was 3.90 for Western Europe and 3.22 for the rest of the world (seven regions combined). USA and Canada ranked first in research productivity when both gross national income per capita (GNIPC) and population were taken into account. The results of this analysis show a distressing fact; the absolute and relative production of research in the field of Virology by the developing regions is very low, although viral diseases cause considerable morbidity and mortality in these areas. It is evident from this study that developing regions need more help from the developed regions to enhance research infrastructure.

  3. Estimating the global incidence of traumatic spinal cord injury.

    PubMed

    Fitzharris, M; Cripps, R A; Lee, B B

    2014-02-01

    Population modelling--forecasting. To estimate the global incidence of traumatic spinal cord injury (TSCI). An initiative of the International Spinal Cord Society (ISCoS) Prevention Committee. Regression techniques were used to derive regional and global estimates of TSCI incidence. Using the findings of 31 published studies, a regression model was fitted using a known number of TSCI cases as the dependent variable and the population at risk as the single independent variable. In the process of deriving TSCI incidence, an alternative TSCI model was specified in an attempt to arrive at an optimal way of estimating the global incidence of TSCI. The global incidence of TSCI was estimated to be 23 cases per 1,000,000 persons in 2007 (179,312 cases per annum). World Health Organization's regional results are provided. Understanding the incidence of TSCI is important for health service planning and for the determination of injury prevention priorities. In the absence of high-quality epidemiological studies of TSCI in each country, the estimation of TSCI obtained through population modelling can be used to overcome known deficits in global spinal cord injury (SCI) data. The incidence of TSCI is context specific, and an alternative regression model demonstrated how TSCI incidence estimates could be improved with additional data. The results highlight the need for data standardisation and comprehensive reporting of national level TSCI data. A step-wise approach from the collation of conventional epidemiological data through to population modelling is suggested.

  4. Axion mass estimates from resonant Josephson junctions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beck, Christian

    2015-03-01

    Recently it has been proposed that dark matter axions from the galactic halo can produce a small Shapiro step-like signal in Josephson junctions whose Josephson frequency resonates with the axion mass (Beck, 2013). Here we show that the axion field equations in a voltage-driven Josephson junction environment allow for a nontrivial solution where the axion-induced electrical current manifests itself as an oscillating supercurrent. The linear change of phase associated with this nontrivial solution implies the formal existence of a large magnetic field in a tiny surface area of the weak link region of the junction which makes incoming axions decay into microwave photons. We derive a condition for the design of Josephson junction experiments so that they can act as optimum axion detectors. Four independent recent experiments are discussed in this context. The observed Shapiro step anomalies of all four experiments consistently point towards an axion mass of (110±2) μeV. This mass value is compatible with the recent BICEP2 results and implies that Peccei-Quinn symmetry breaking was taking place after inflation.

  5. Spectral estimation of global levels of atmospheric pollutants.

    PubMed

    Fernández-Macho, Javier

    2011-10-01

    Underlying levels of atmospheric pollutants, assumed to be governed by smoothing mechanisms due to atmospheric dispersion, can be estimated from global emissions source databases on greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting compounds. However, spatial data may be contaminated with noise or even missing or zero-valued at many locations. Therefore, a problem that arises is how to extract the underlying smooth levels. This paper sets out a structural spatial model that assumes data evolve across a global grid constrained by second-order smoothing restrictions. The frequency-domain approach is particularly suitable for global datasets, reduces the computational burden associated with two-dimensional models and avoids cumbersome zero-inflated skewed distributions. Confidence intervals of the underlying levels are also obtained. An application to the estimation of global levels of atmospheric pollutants from anthropogenic emissions illustrates the technique which may also be useful in the analysis of other environmental datasets of similar characteristics.

  6. Fringe inverse videogrammetry based on global pose estimation.

    PubMed

    Xiao, Yong-Liang; Su, Xianyu; Chen, Wenjing

    2011-10-10

    Fringe inverse videogrammetry based on global pose estimation is presented to measure a three-dimensional (3D) coordinate. The main components involve an LCD screen, a tactile probe equipped with a microcamera, and a portable personal computer. The LCD is utilized to display fringes, a microcamera is installed on the tactile probe, and the 3D coordinate of the center of the probe tip can be calculated through the microcamera's pose. Fourier fringe analysis is exploited to complete subpixel location of reference points. A convex-relaxation optimization algorithm is employed to estimate the global camera pose, which guarantees global convergence compared with bundle adjustment, a local pose estimation algorithm. The experiments demonstrate that fringe inverse videogrammetry can measure the 3D coordinate precisely. © 2011 Optical Society of America

  7. Global near-surface temperature estimation using statistical reconstruction techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morice, C. P.; Rayner, N. A.; Kennedy, J.

    2015-12-01

    Incomplete and non-uniform observational coverage of the globe is a prominent source of uncertainty in instrumental records of global near-surface temperature change. In this study the capabilities of a range of statistical analysis methods are assessed in producing improved estimates of global near-surface temperature change since the mid 19th century for observational coverage in the HadCRUT4 data set. Methods used include those that interpolate according to local correlation structure (kriging) and reduced space methods that learn large-scale temperature patterns. The performance of each method in estimating regional and global temperature changes has been benchmarked in application to a subset of CMIP5 simulations. Model fields are sub-sampled and simulated observational errors added to emulate observational data, permitting assessment of temperature field reconstruction algorithms in controlled tests in which globally complete temperature fields are known. The reconstruction methods have also been applied to the HadCRUT4 data set, yielding a range of estimates of global near-surface temperature change since the mid 19th century. Results show relatively increased warming in the global average over the 21st century owing to reconstruction of temperatures in high northern latitudes, supporting the findings of Cowtan & Way (2014) and Karl et al. (2015). While there is broad agreement between estimates of global and hemispheric changes throughout much of the 20th and 21st century, agreement is reduced in the 19th and early 20th century. This finding is supported by the climate model trials that highlight uncertainty in reconstructing data sparse regions, most notably in the Southern Hemisphere in the 19th century. These results underline the importance of continued data rescue activities, such as those of the International Surface Temperature Initiative and ACRE. The results of this study will form an addition to the HadCRUT4 global near-surface temperature data

  8. Globalization, commodification and mass transplant of nurses: Part 1.

    PubMed

    Cutcliffe, John R; Yarbrough, Susan

    The world is currently facing a shortage of nurses and this is predicted to worsen as a result of the looming en masse retirement of the so-called 'baby-boom' generation. Moreover, this problem is foreseen to be far more pronounced in Western countries where the post-Second World War 'baby-boom' demographic was (and is) most prominent. Data collected by various international organizations illustrates a corresponding recent increase in nurse migration and that such mass transplantation inevitably involves the unidirectional movement of nurses from developing countries to developed Western countries. As a result, this two-part article examines this mass transplantation within the context of globalization. Part one provides compelling international data regarding the global shortage of nurses and the corresponding increase in nurse migration from 'underdeveloped' to 'Western' countries. It then situates the phenomenon in the context of global health and highlights the extent of the debate so far, such as it is.

  9. An observationally constrained estimate of global dust aerosol optical depth

    SciTech Connect

    Ridley, David A.; Heald, Colette L.; Kok, Jasper F.; Zhao, Chun

    2016-12-06

    Here, the role of mineral dust in climate and ecosystems has been largely quantified using global climate and chemistry model simulations of dust emission, transport, and deposition. However, differences between these model simulations are substantial, with estimates of global dust aerosol optical depth (AOD) that vary by over a factor of 5. Here we develop an observationally based estimate of the global dust AOD, using multiple satellite platforms, in situ AOD observations and four state-of-the-science global models over 2004–2008. We estimate that the global dust AOD at 550 nm is 0.030 ± 0.005 (1σ), higher than the AeroCom model median (0.023) and substantially narrowing the uncertainty. The methodology used provides regional, seasonal dust AOD and the associated statistical uncertainty for key dust regions around the globe with which model dust schemes can be evaluated. Exploring the regional and seasonal differences in dust AOD between our observationally based estimate and the four models in this study, we find that emissions in Africa are often overrepresented at the expense of Asian and Middle Eastern emissions and that dust removal appears to be too rapid in most models.

  10. An observationally constrained estimate of global dust aerosol optical depth

    DOE PAGES

    Ridley, David A.; Heald, Colette L.; Kok, Jasper F.; ...

    2016-12-06

    Here, the role of mineral dust in climate and ecosystems has been largely quantified using global climate and chemistry model simulations of dust emission, transport, and deposition. However, differences between these model simulations are substantial, with estimates of global dust aerosol optical depth (AOD) that vary by over a factor of 5. Here we develop an observationally based estimate of the global dust AOD, using multiple satellite platforms, in situ AOD observations and four state-of-the-science global models over 2004–2008. We estimate that the global dust AOD at 550 nm is 0.030 ± 0.005 (1σ), higher than the AeroCom model medianmore » (0.023) and substantially narrowing the uncertainty. The methodology used provides regional, seasonal dust AOD and the associated statistical uncertainty for key dust regions around the globe with which model dust schemes can be evaluated. Exploring the regional and seasonal differences in dust AOD between our observationally based estimate and the four models in this study, we find that emissions in Africa are often overrepresented at the expense of Asian and Middle Eastern emissions and that dust removal appears to be too rapid in most models.« less

  11. Precise determination of earth's center of mass using measurements from the Global Positioning System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vigue, Yvonne; Lichten, Stephen M.; Blewitt, Geoffrey; Heflin, Michael B.; Malla, Rajendra P.

    1992-01-01

    Global Positioning System (GPS) data from a worldwide geodetic experiment were collected during a 3-week period early in 1991. Geocentric station coordinates were estimated using the GPS data, thus defining a dynamically determined reference frame origin which should coincide with the earth center of mass, or geocenter. The 3-week GPS average geocenter estimates agree to 7-13 cm with geocenter estimates determined from satellite laser ranging, a well-established technique. The RMS of daily GPS geocenter estimates were 4 cm for x and y, and 30 cm for z.

  12. On Estimating the Total Number of Intermediate Mass Black Holes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caputo, Daniel P.; de Vries, Nathan; Patruno, Alessandro; Portegies Zwart, Simon

    2017-07-01

    Black holes have been detected with masses less than 102 and greater than 105 M⊙, but black holes with masses in the intermediate range are conspicuously absent. However, recent estimates of the mass of HLX-1, currently the strongest intermediate mass black hole (IMBH) candidate, suggest an approximate mass of 104 M⊙, and recent estimates of the mass of M82 X-1 suggest a mass of 4 × 102, placing them within the missing black hole range. This raises the question of whether these are unique objects or if many more of these objects should be expected. We estimate the number of HLX-1 like IMBHs expected within the distance of 100 Mpc to be within an order of ≈106, or ≈102 IMBHs within a galaxy, and about two orders of magnitude more when considering less massive IMBHs using M82 X-1 as a prototype. In the process of estimating this value, we determine the form of the mass function within the sphere of influence of a newly formed IMBH to be a power law with a slope of -1.83. Furthermore, we find that we are only able to fit both the period and luminosity of HLX-1 with a stellar companion with a mass between ≈10 and 11 M⊙, a result that is fairly robust to the mass of the IMBH between 103 and 105 M⊙.

  13. On Estimating the Total Number of Intermediate Mass Black Holes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caputo, Daniel P.; de Vries, Nathan; Patruno, Alessandro; Portegies Zwart, Simon

    2017-01-01

    Black holes have been detected with masses less than 102 and greater than 105 M⊙, but black holes with masses in the intermediate range are conspicuously absent. However, recent estimates of the mass of HLX-1, currently the strongest intermediate mass black hole (IMBH) candidate, suggest an approximate mass of 104 M⊙, and recent estimates of the mass of M82 X-1 suggest a mass of 4 × 102, placing them within the missing black hole range. This raises the question of whether these are unique objects or if many more of these objects should be expected. We estimate the number of HLX-1 like IMBHs expected within the distance of 100 Mpc to be within an order of ≈106, or ≈102 IMBHs within a galaxy, and about two orders of magnitude more when considering less massive IMBHs using M82 X-1 as a prototype. In the process of estimating this value we determine the form of the mass function within the sphere of influence of a newly formed IMBH to be a power law with a slope of -1.83. Furthermore, we find we are only able to fit both the period and luminosity of HLX-1 with a stellar companion with a mass between ≈10 - 11 M⊙, a result which is fairly robust to the mass of the IMBH between 103 and 105 M⊙.

  14. Estimation of lipids and lean mass of migrating sandpipers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Skagen, Susan K.; Knopf, Fritz L.; Cade, Brian S.

    1993-01-01

    Estimation of lean mass and lipid levels in birds involves the derivation of predictive equations that relate morphological measurements and, more recently, total body electrical conductivity (TOBEC) indices to known lean and lipid masses. Using cross-validation techniques, we evaluated the ability of several published and new predictive equations to estimate lean and lipid mass of Semipalmated Sandpipers (Calidris pusilla) and White-rumped Sandpipers (C. fuscicollis). We also tested ideas of Morton et al. (1991), who stated that current statistical approaches to TOBEC methodology misrepresent precision in estimating body fat. Three published interspecific equations using TOBEC indices predicted lean and lipid masses of our sample of birds with average errors of 8-28% and 53-155%, respectively. A new two-species equation relating lean mass and TOBEC indices revealed average errors of 4.6% and 23.2% in predicting lean and lipid mass, respectively. New intraspecific equations that estimate lipid mass directly from body mass, morphological measurements, and TOBEC indices yielded about a 13% error in lipid estimates. Body mass and morphological measurements explained a substantial portion of the variance (about 90%) in fat mass of both species. Addition of TOBEC indices improved the predictive model more for the smaller than for the larger sandpiper. TOBEC indices explained an additional 7.8% and 2.6% of the variance in fat mass and reduced the minimum breadth of prediction intervals by 0.95 g (32%) and 0.39 g (13%) for Semipalmated and White-rumped Sandpipers, respectively. The breadth of prediction intervals for models used to predict fat levels of individual birds must be considered when interpreting the resultant lipid estimates.

  15. Inclination Dependence of Estimated Galaxy Masses and Star Formation Rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hernandez, Betsy; Maller, Ariyeh; McKernan, Barry; Ford, Saavik

    2016-01-01

    We examine the inclination dependence of inferred star formation rates and galaxy mass estimates in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey by combining the disk/bulge de-convolved catalog of Simard et al 2011 with stellar mass estimates catalog of Mendel et al 2014 and star formation rates measured from spectra by Brinchmann et al 2004. We know that optical star formation indicators are reddened by dust, but calculated star formation rates and stellar mass estimates should account for this. However, we find that face-on galaxies have a higher calculated average star formation rates than edge-on galaxies. We also find edge-on galaxies have ,on average, slightly smaller but similar estimated masses to face-on galaxies, suggesting that there are issues with the applied dust corrections for both models.

  16. Global estimate of net annual carbon flow to phenylpropanoid metabolism

    SciTech Connect

    Walton, A.B.; Norman, E.G.; Turpin, D.H. )

    1993-05-01

    The steady increase in the concentration of CO[sub 2] in the atmosphere is the focus of renewed interest in the global carbon cycle. Current research is centered upon modeling the effects of the increasing CO[sub 2] concentrations, and thus global warning, on global plant homeostasis. It has been estimated that the annual net primary production (NPP) values for terrestrial and oceanic biomes are 59.9 and 35 Pg C-yr[sup [minus]1], respectively (Melillo et al., 1990). Based on these NPP values, we have estimated the annual C flow to phenlpropanoid metabolism. In our calculation, lignin was used as a surrogate for phenylpropanoid compounds, as lignin is the second most abundant plant polymer. This approach means that our estimate defines the lower limit of C flow to phenylpropanoid metabolism. Each biome was considered separately to determine the percent of the NPP which was directed to the biosynthesis of leaves, stems/branches, and roots. From published values of the lignin content of these organs, the total amount of C directed to the biosynthesis of lignin in each biome was determined. This was used to obtain a global value. Implications of these estimates will be discussed with reference to plant carbon and nitrogen metabolism.

  17. Estimating the true global burden of mental illness.

    PubMed

    Vigo, Daniel; Thornicroft, Graham; Atun, Rifat

    2016-02-01

    We argue that the global burden of mental illness is underestimated and examine the reasons for under-estimation to identify five main causes: overlap between psychiatric and neurological disorders; the grouping of suicide and self-harm as a separate category; conflation of all chronic pain syndromes with musculoskeletal disorders; exclusion of personality disorders from disease burden calculations; and inadequate consideration of the contribution of severe mental illness to mortality from associated causes. Using published data, we estimate the disease burden for mental illness to show that the global burden of mental illness accounts for 32·4% of years lived with disability (YLDs) and 13·0% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), instead of the earlier estimates suggesting 21·2% of YLDs and 7·1% of DALYs. Currently used approaches underestimate the burden of mental illness by more than a third. Our estimates place mental illness a distant first in global burden of disease in terms of YLDs, and level with cardiovascular and circulatory diseases in terms of DALYs. The unacceptable apathy of governments and funders of global health must be overcome to mitigate the human, social, and economic costs of mental illness. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Estimation of Global Surface Carbon Fluxes Using Advanced Data Assimilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalnay, E.; Asrar, G.; Zeng, N.; Liu, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Kang et al., (JGR, 2011, 2012) developed an advanced data assimilation methodology able to recover (in a simulation mode) the surface carbon fluxes from the assimilation of realistic atmospheric CO2 measurements. After a spin-up of 3 months, the carbon fluxes were estimated accurately at a grid-size resolution and captured quite well the natural annual cycle and the anthropogenic sources without using any prior information. In our current research, led together with co-authors, we are assimilating both simulated and real observations into the GEOS-CHEM global model coupled with the VEGAS vegetation model, using strongly coupled LETKF Data Assimilation, with the ultimate goal of estimating global real carbon fluxes. The coupled GEOS-CHEM/VEGAS model reproduces very realistically the observed seasonal cycle of the CO2 flask data for April 2012-July 2014 at many Global View stations, after a spin-up of about 6 months. We confirmed that the LETKF Data Assimilation could also be used to estimate unmeasured parameters in VEGAS model, as long as their time scales are not longer than a few years. We are performing OSSE and OSE data assimilation experiments with this system, assimilating a) Global View observations, b) OCO-2 observations, and c) combining both set of observations in order to determine optimal data assimilation parameters for the estimation of surface carbon fluxes, and will present an overview of our results.

  19. Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Estimation and Risk Management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

  20. Globalization, commodification and mass transplant of nurses: Part 1.

    PubMed

    Cutcliffe, John R; Yarbrough, Susan

    This two-part article examines the mass transplantation of nurses within the context of globalization. Part one focused on the international data regarding the global shortage of nurses, the increase in nurse migration from 'underdeveloped' to 'Western' countries, definitions and descriptions of global health and summarized the debate so far, such as it is. Part two draws attention to how this group of migrating nurses is more often than not comprised disproportionately of women and accordingly, draws on critical feminist ideas to demonstrate how such mass transplantation of nurses adds to the idea of women as a commodity. It then draws attention to other similar examples of the commodification of women and highlights the impacts of the loss of this labour force on the 'exporting' countries. The article concludes by joining with others who have proffered constructive suggestions for addressing this problem.

  1. Challenges and Approaches for Data Quality in Global Precipitation Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huffman, G. J.

    2011-12-01

    It is a substantial challenge to estimate the global distribution of precipitation at the finest scales because the retrieval problem is highly underdetermined, given the available satellite and surface data and the approximations that are needed to compute solutions. Sampling is improved by combining precipitation estimates from as many precipitation-relevant satellites as possible, but this step introduces the necessity of coping with differing retrieval capabilities from the various satellites. The usual response is to inter-calibrate the satellite estimates, usually choosing one satellite as a standard and performing histogram matching with coincident data for all the other satellites. Such matching requires numerous design decisions for practical use. As well, it has been shown that monthly accumulations of surface precipitation gauge data can be used to reduce bias and improve patterns of occurrence for monthly accumulations of satellite data, and short-interval satellite estimates can be improved with a simple scaling such that they sum to the monthly satellite-gauge combination. However, the quality of the short-interval estimates is still dominated by the random errors. Spatial and/or temporal averaging improve the random-error content of the estimates, although not the bias. This observation has a profound implication for the perceived utility of the precipitation data: applications that entail explicit or implicit averaging usually tolerate higher levels of random error than applications requiring skill in the full-resolution estimates. The presentation will consider some of the current issues confronting the analysis of error and quality for global precipitation. These include consideration of: how best to estimate the error for fine-scale precipitation estimates, particularly in areas where the precipitation estimate is zero; the impact of high- and low-end thresholds in estimators; and metrics that are appropriate to the fine-scale, discontinuous

  2. Greenland ice mass balance estimation from GRACE: a reexamination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jensen, L.; Eicker, A.; Kusche, J.

    2011-12-01

    In recent years there have been several studies using GRACE satellite data to investigate the melting of the Greenland ice sheet. The results of the different investigations vary considerably. In this study, monthly GRACE solutions calculated by the Institute of Geodesy and Geoinformation of the University Bonn (ITG-GRACE2010 solutions) are evaluated to obtain a new estimate for the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet including the corresponding error estimate. One of the major issues when dealing with the mass variations in Greenland is the leakage problem. In the contribution at hand, leakage-in effects caused by external mass variations are adressed by estimating a regional adjustment of the applied ocean model. The approach assumes time-invariant spatial patterns of ocean mass variations to be correctly reproduced in the circulation model but their time-variable amplitudes to be improvable. New amplitudes are determined by comparison to the GRACE observations in a least-squares estimation process. Leakage-out can be compensated for by rescaling the ice mass changes with a constant factor. In addition to a simple technique, a more complex approach developed by Baur et al. (2009) is applied in this investigation to obtain the rescaling factor. Besides mass variations in the area of Greenland also mass variations in an extended area around Greenland are taken into account in this procedure. A further important aspect is the problem of signal separation, especially separating the ice mass variations from mass trends caused by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). A comparison of different GIA models shows why this is one of the major sources of uncertainty when trying to determine the Greenland ice mass balance. The possibility to improve GIA modelling using geodetic data is therefore another aspect which will be discussed on the poster. The results of the new ice mass balance estimate from GRACE will be compared to the results obtained from alternative

  3. CALIBRATING C-IV-BASED BLACK HOLE MASS ESTIMATORS

    SciTech Connect

    Park, Daeseong; Woo, Jong-Hak; Shin, Jaejin; Denney, Kelly D. E-mail: woo@astro.snu.ac.kr E-mail: kelly@dark-cosmology.dk

    2013-06-20

    We present the single-epoch black hole mass estimators based on the C IV {lambda}1549 broad emission line, using the updated sample of the reverberation-mapped active galactic nuclei and high-quality UV spectra. By performing multi-component spectral fitting analysis, we measure the C IV line widths (FWHM{sub C{sub IV}} and line dispersion, {sigma}{sub C{sub IV}}) and the continuum luminosity at 1350 A (L{sub 1350}) to calibrate the C-IV-based mass estimators. By comparing with the H{beta} reverberation-based masses, we provide new mass estimators with the best-fit relationships, i.e., M{sub BH}{proportional_to}L{sub 1350}{sup 0.50{+-}0.07}{sigma}{sub C{sub IV}{sup 2}} and M{sub BH}{proportional_to}L{sub 1350}{sup 0.52{+-}0.09} FWHM{sub C{sub IV}{sup 0.56{+-}0.48}}. The new C-IV-based mass estimators show significant mass-dependent systematic difference compared to the estimators commonly used in the literature. Using the published Sloan Digital Sky Survey QSO catalog, we show that the black hole mass of high-redshift QSOs decreases on average by {approx}0.25 dex if our recipe is adopted.

  4. Estimating impacts of lichens and bryophytes on global biogeochemical cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porada, Philipp; Weber, Bettina; Elbert, Wolfgang; Pöschl, Ulrich; Kleidon, Axel

    2014-02-01

    Lichens and bryophytes may significantly affect global biogeochemical cycles by fixation of nitrogen and biotic enhancement of surface weathering rates. Most of the studies suggesting these effects, however, are either conceptual or rely on upscaling of regional estimates to obtain global numbers. Here we use a different method, based on estimates of net carbon uptake, to quantify the impacts of lichens and bryophytes on biogeochemical cycles at the global scale. We focus on three processes, namely, nitrogen fixation, phosphorus uptake, and chemical weathering. Our estimates have the form of potential rates, which means that we quantify the amount of nitrogen and phosphorus needed by the organisms to build up biomass, also accounting for resorption and leaching of nutrients. Subsequently, we use potential phosphorus uptake on bare ground to estimate chemical weathering by the organisms, assuming that they release weathering agents to obtain phosphorus. The predicted requirement for nitrogen ranges from 3.5 to 34 Tgyr-1 and for phosphorus it ranges from 0.46 to 4.6 Tgyr-1. Estimates of chemical weathering are between 0.058 and 1.1 km3 yr-1 of rock. These values seem to have a realistic order of magnitude, and they support the notion that lichens and bryophytes have the potential to play an important role for biogeochemical cycles.

  5. Evapotranspiration: Mass balance measurements compared with flux estimation methods

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Evapotranspiration (ET) may be measured by mass balance methods and estimated by flux sensing methods. The mass balance methods are typically restricted in terms of the area that can be represented (e.g., surface area of weighing lysimeter (LYS) or equivalent representative area of neutron probe (NP...

  6. Separating duff and litter for improved mass and carbon estimates

    Treesearch

    David Chojnacky; Michael Amacher; Michael Gavazzi

    2009-01-01

    Mass and carbon load estimates, such as those from forest soil organic matter (duff and litter), inform forestry decisions. The US Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program systematically collects data nationwide: a down woody material protocol specifies discrete duff and litter depth measurements, and a soils protocol specifies mass and carbon of duff and litter...

  7. Hadron mass estimates in the lattice gauge theory

    SciTech Connect

    Hamber, H.

    1982-01-01

    Some estimates for the hadron masses in lattice QCD are presented in the approximation of neglecting dynamic fermion loops. Both light and heavy quark systems are considered and their dependence on the coupling constant and the quark mass is studied. Some results for the decay amplitudes are also given. We discuss how the eta prime mass can be computed to lowest order in n/sub f/, the number of dynamic fermion flavors.

  8. Annual Estimates of Global Anthropogenic Methane Emissions: 1860-1994

    DOE Data Explorer

    Stern, David I. [Boston Univ., MA (United States); Kaufmann, Robert K. [Boston Univ., MA (United States)

    1998-01-01

    The authors provide the first estimates, by year, of global man-made emissions of methane, from 1860 through 1994. The methods, including the rationale for the various coefficients and assumptions used in deriving the estimates, are described fully in Stern and Kaufmann (1995, 1996), which provides the estimates for the period 1860-1993; the data presented here are revised and updated through 1994. Some formulae and coefficients were also revised in that process. Estimates are provided for total anthropogenic emissions, as well as emissions for the following component categories: Flaring and Venting of Natural Gas; Oil and Gas Supply Systems, Excluding Flaring; Coal Mining; Biomass Burning; Livestock Farming; Rice Farming and Related Activities; Landfills. Changes in emissions over time were estimated by treating emissions as a function of variables (such as population or coal production) for which historical time series are available.

  9. Aging, transition, and estimating the global burden of disease.

    PubMed

    Seligman, Benjamin J; Cullen, Mark R; Horwitz, Ralph I

    2011-01-01

    The World Health Organization's Global Burden of Disease (GBD) reports are an important tool for global health policy makers, however the accuracy of estimates for countries undergoing an epidemiologic transition is unclear. We attempted to validate the life table model used to generate estimates for all-cause mortality in developing countries. Data were obtained for males and females from the Human Mortality Database for all countries with available data every ten years from 1900 to 2000. These provided inputs for the GBD life table model and served as comparison observed data. Above age sixty model estimates of survival for both sexes differed substantially from those observed. Prior to the year 1960 for males and 1930 for females, estimated survival tended to be greater than observed; following 1960 for both males and females estimated survival tended to be less than observed. Viewing observed and estimated survival separately, observed survival past sixty increased over the years considered. For males, the increase was from a mean (sd) probability of 0.22 (0.06) to 0.46 (0.1). For females, the increase was from 0.26 (0.06) to 0.65 (0.08). By contrast, estimated survival past sixty decreased over the same period. Among males, estimated survival probability declined from 0.54 (0.2) to 0.09 (0.06). Among females, the decline was from 0.36 (0.12) to 0.15 (0.08). These results show that the GBD mortality model did not accurately estimate survival at older ages as developed countries transitioned in the twentieth century and may be similarly flawed in developing countries now undergoing transition. Estimates of the size of older-age populations and their attributable disease burden should be reconsidered.

  10. Stacked Weak Lensing Mass Calibration: Estimators, Systematics, and Impact on Cosmological Parameter Constraints

    SciTech Connect

    Rozo, Eduardo; Wu, Hao-Yi; Schmidt, Fabian; /Caltech

    2011-11-04

    When extracting the weak lensing shear signal, one may employ either locally normalized or globally normalized shear estimators. The former is the standard approach when estimating cluster masses, while the latter is the more common method among peak finding efforts. While both approaches have identical signal-to-noise in the weak lensing limit, it is possible that higher order corrections or systematic considerations make one estimator preferable over the other. In this paper, we consider the efficacy of both estimators within the context of stacked weak lensing mass estimation in the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We find that the two estimators have nearly identical statistical precision, even after including higher order corrections, but that these corrections must be incorporated into the analysis to avoid observationally relevant biases in the recovered masses. We also demonstrate that finite bin-width effects may be significant if not properly accounted for, and that the two estimators exhibit different systematics, particularly with respect to contamination of the source catalog by foreground galaxies. Thus, the two estimators may be employed as a systematic cross-check of each other. Stacked weak lensing in the DES should allow for the mean mass of galaxy clusters to be calibrated to {approx}2% precision (statistical only), which can improve the figure of merit of the DES cluster abundance experiment by a factor of {approx}3 relative to the self-calibration expectation. A companion paper investigates how the two types of estimators considered here impact weak lensing peak finding efforts.

  11. Stacked Weak Lensing Mass Calibration: Estimators, Systematics, and Impact on Cosmological Parameter Constraints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rozo, Eduardo; Wu, Hao-Yi; Schmidt, Fabian

    2011-07-01

    When extracting the weak lensing shear signal, one may employ either locally normalized or globally normalized shear estimators. The former is the standard approach when estimating cluster masses, while the latter is the more common method among peak finding efforts. While both approaches have identical signal-to-noise in the weak lensing limit, it is possible that higher order corrections or systematic considerations make one estimator preferable over the other. In this paper, we consider the efficacy of both estimators within the context of stacked weak lensing mass estimation in the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We find that the two estimators have nearly identical statistical precision, even after including higher order corrections, but that these corrections must be incorporated into the analysis to avoid observationally relevant biases in the recovered masses. We also demonstrate that finite bin-width effects may be significant if not properly accounted for, and that the two estimators exhibit different systematics, particularly with respect to contamination of the source catalog by foreground galaxies. Thus, the two estimators may be employed as a systematic cross-check of each other. Stacked weak lensing in the DES should allow for the mean mass of galaxy clusters to be calibrated to ≈2% precision (statistical only), which can improve the figure of merit of the DES cluster abundance experiment by a factor of ~3 relative to the self-calibration expectation. A companion paper investigates how the two types of estimators considered here impact weak lensing peak finding efforts.

  12. Space Geodesy Monitoring Mass Transport in Global Geophysical Fluids

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chao, Benjamin F.

    2004-01-01

    Mass transports occurring in the atmosphere-hydrosphere-cryosphere-solid Earth-core system (the 'global geophysical fluids') are important geophysical phenomena. They occur on all temporal and spatial scales. Examples include air mass and ocean circulations, oceanic and solid tides, hydrological water and idsnow redistribution, mantle processes such as post-glacial rebound, earthquakes and tectonic motions, and core geodynamo activities. The temporal history and spatial pattern of such mass transport are often not amenable to direct observations. Space geodesy techniques, however, have proven to be an effective tool in monitorihg certain direct consequences of the mass transport, including Earth's rotation variations, gravitational field variations, and the geocenter motion. Considerable advances have been made in recent years in observing and understanding of these geodynamic effects. This paper will use several prominent examples to illustrate the triumphs in research over the past years under a 'Moore's law' in space geodesy. New space missions and projects promise to further advance our knowledge about the global mass transports. The latter contributes to our understanding of the geophysical processes that produce and regulate the mass transports, as well as of the solid Earth's response to such changes in terms of Earth's mechanical properties.

  13. Space Geodesy Monitoring Mass Transport in Global Geophysical Fluids

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chao, Benjamin F.

    2004-01-01

    Mass transports occurring in the atmosphere-hydrosphere-cryosphere-solid Earth-core system (the 'global geophysical fluids') are important geophysical phenomena. They occur on all temporal and spatial scales. Examples include air mass and ocean circulations, oceanic and solid tides, hydrological water and idsnow redistribution, mantle processes such as post-glacial rebound, earthquakes and tectonic motions, and core geodynamo activities. The temporal history and spatial pattern of such mass transport are often not amenable to direct observations. Space geodesy techniques, however, have proven to be an effective tool in monitorihg certain direct consequences of the mass transport, including Earth's rotation variations, gravitational field variations, and the geocenter motion. Considerable advances have been made in recent years in observing and understanding of these geodynamic effects. This paper will use several prominent examples to illustrate the triumphs in research over the past years under a 'Moore's law' in space geodesy. New space missions and projects promise to further advance our knowledge about the global mass transports. The latter contributes to our understanding of the geophysical processes that produce and regulate the mass transports, as well as of the solid Earth's response to such changes in terms of Earth's mechanical properties.

  14. Evaluation of Black Carbon Estimations in Global Aerosol Models

    SciTech Connect

    Koch, D.; Schulz, M.; Kinne, Stefan; McNaughton, C. S.; Spackman, J. R.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S.; Berntsen, T.; Bond, Tami C.; Boucher, Olivier; Chin, M.; Clarke, A. D.; De Luca, N.; Dentener, F.; Diehl, T.; Dubovik, O.; Easter, Richard C.; Fahey, D. W.; Feichter, J.; Fillmore, D.; Freitag, S.; Ghan, Steven J.; Ginoux, P.; Gong, S.; Horowitz, L.; Iversen, T.; Kirkevag, A.; Klimont, Z.; Kondo, Yutaka; Krol, M.; Liu, Xiaohong; Miller, R.; Montanaro, V.; Moteki, N.; Myhre, G.; Penner, J.; Perlwitz, Ja; Pitari, G.; Reddy, S.; Sahu, L.; Sakamoto, H.; Schuster, G.; Schwarz, J. P.; Seland, O.; Stier, P.; Takegawa, Nobuyuki; Takemura, T.; Textor, C.; van Aardenne, John; Zhao, Y.

    2009-11-27

    range represented by the full set of AeroCom models. Upper tropospheric concentrations of BC mass from the aircraft measurements are suggested to provide a unique new benchmark to test scavenging and vertical dispersion of BC in global models.

  15. Asteroid mass estimation using Markov-Chain Monte Carlo techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siltala, Lauri; Granvik, Mikael

    2016-10-01

    Estimates for asteroid masses are based on their gravitational perturbations on the orbits of other objects such as Mars, spacecraft, or other asteroids and/or their satellites. In the case of asteroid-asteroid perturbations, this leads to a 13-dimensional inverse problem where the aim is to derive the mass of the perturbing asteroid and six orbital elements for both the perturbing asteroid and the test asteroid using astrometric observations. We have developed and implemented three different mass estimation algorithms utilizing asteroid-asteroid perturbations into the OpenOrb asteroid-orbit-computation software: the very rough 'marching' approximation, in which the asteroid orbits are fixed at a given epoch, reducing the problem to a one-dimensional estimation of the mass, an implementation of the Nelder-Mead simplex method, and most significantly, a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. We will introduce each of these algorithms with particular focus on the MCMC algorithm, and present example results for both synthetic and real data. Our results agree with the published mass estimates, but suggest that the published uncertainties may be misleading as a consequence of using linearized mass-estimation methods. Finally, we discuss remaining challenges with the algorithms as well as future plans, particularly in connection with ESA's Gaia mission.

  16. Mass Estimators for Flattened Dispersion-supported Galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanders, Jason L.; Evans, N. Wyn

    2016-10-01

    We investigate the reliability of mass estimators based on the observable velocity dispersion and half-light radius R h for dispersion-supported galaxies. We show how to extend them to flattened systems and provide simple formulae for the mass within an ellipsoid under the assumption the dark-matter density and the stellar density are stratified on the same self-similar ellipsoids. We demonstrate explicitly that the spherical mass estimators give accurate values for the mass within the half-light ellipsoid, provided R h is replaced by its “circularized” analog {R}{{h}}\\sqrt{1-ε }. We provide a mathematical justification for this surprisingly simple and effective workaround. It means, for example, that the mass-to-light ratios are valid not just when the light and dark matter are spherically distributed, but also when they are flattened on ellipsoids of the same constant shape.

  17. Estimated Global Mortality Attributable to Smoke from Landscape Fires

    PubMed Central

    Henderson, Sarah B.; Chen, Yang; Randerson, James T.; Marlier, Miriam; DeFries, Ruth S.; Kinney, Patrick; Bowman, David M.J.S.; Brauer, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Background: Forest, grass, and peat fires release approximately 2 petagrams of carbon into the atmosphere each year, influencing weather, climate, and air quality. Objective: We estimated the annual global mortality attributable to landscape fire smoke (LFS). Methods: Daily and annual exposure to particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) from fire emissions was estimated globally for 1997 through 2006 by combining outputs from a chemical transport model with satellite-based observations of aerosol optical depth. In World Health Organization (WHO) subregions classified as sporadically affected, the daily burden of mortality was estimated using previously published concentration–response coefficients for the association between short-term elevations in PM2.5 from LFS (contrasted with 0 μg/m3 from LFS) and all-cause mortality. In subregions classified as chronically affected, the annual burden of mortality was estimated using the American Cancer Society study coefficient for the association between long-term PM2.5 exposure and all-cause mortality. The annual average PM2.5 estimates were contrasted with theoretical minimum (counterfactual) concentrations in each chronically affected subregion. Sensitivity of mortality estimates to different exposure assessments, counterfactual estimates, and concentration–response functions was evaluated. Strong La Niña and El Niño years were compared to assess the influence of interannual climatic variability. Results: Our principal estimate for the average mortality attributable to LFS exposure was 339,000 deaths annually. In sensitivity analyses the interquartile range of all tested estimates was 260,000–600,000. The regions most affected were sub-Saharan Africa (157,000) and Southeast Asia (110,000). Estimated annual mortality during La Niña was 262,000, compared with 532,000 during El Niño. Conclusions: Fire emissions are an important contributor to global mortality. Adverse health outcomes

  18. Contributions of Lower Atmospheric Drivers to the Semiannual Oscillation in Thermospheric Global Mass Density

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, M., Jr.; Emmert, J. T.; Drob, D. P.; Siskind, D. E.

    2016-12-01

    The thermosphere exhibits intra-annual variations (IAV) in globally averaged mass density that noticeably impact the drag environment of satellites in low Earth orbit. Particularly, the annual and semiannual oscillations (AO and SAO) are collectively the second largest component, after solar variability, of thermospheric global mass density variations. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain the oscillations, but they have yet to be reproduced by first-principles modeling simulations. Recent studies have focused on estimating the SAO in eddy diffusion required to explain the thermospheric SAO in mass density. Less attention has been paid to the effect of lower and middle atmospheric drivers on the lower boundary of the thermosphere. In this study, we utilize the National Center for Atmospheric Research Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM), to elucidate how the different lower atmospheric drivers influence IAV, and in particular the SAO of globally-averaged thermospheric mass density. We performed numerical simulations of a continuous calendar year assuming constant solar forcing, manipulating the lower atmospheric tidal forcing and gravity wave parameterization in order to quantify the SAO in thermospheric mass density attributable to different lower atmospheric drivers. The prominent initial results are as follows: (1) The "standard" TIME-GCM is capable of simulating the SAO in globally-averaged mass density at 400 km from first-principles, and its amplitude and phase compare well with empirical models; (2) The simulations suggest that seasonally varying Kzz driven by breaking GWs is not the primary driver of the SAO in upper thermospheric globally averaged mass density; (3) Preliminary analysis suggests that the SAO in the upper thermospheric mass density could be a by-product of dynamical wave transport in the mesopause region.

  19. Rapid estimation of the economic consequences of global earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, operational since mid 2007, rapidly estimates the most affected locations and the population exposure at different levels of shaking intensities. The PAGER system has significantly improved the way aid agencies determine the scale of response needed in the aftermath of an earthquake. For example, the PAGER exposure estimates provided reasonably accurate assessments of the scale and spatial extent of the damage and losses following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) in China, the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (Mw 6.3) in Italy, the 2010 Haiti earthquake (Mw 7.0), and the 2010 Chile earthquake (Mw 8.8). Nevertheless, some engineering and seismological expertise is often required to digest PAGER's exposure estimate and turn it into estimated fatalities and economic losses. This has been the focus of PAGER's most recent development. With the new loss-estimation component of the PAGER system it is now possible to produce rapid estimation of expected fatalities for global earthquakes (Jaiswal and others, 2009). While an estimate of earthquake fatalities is a fundamental indicator of potential human consequences in developing countries (for example, Iran, Pakistan, Haiti, Peru, and many others), economic consequences often drive the responses in much of the developed world (for example, New Zealand, the United States, and Chile), where the improved structural behavior of seismically resistant buildings significantly reduces earthquake casualties. Rapid availability of estimates of both fatalities and economic losses can be a valuable resource. The total time needed to determine the actual scope of an earthquake disaster and to respond effectively varies from country to country. It can take days or sometimes weeks before the damage and consequences of a disaster can be understood both socially and economically. The objective of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system is

  20. Uncertainty estimates of altimetric Global Mean Sea Level timeseries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scharffenberg, Martin; Hemming, Michael; Stammer, Detlef

    2016-04-01

    An attempt is being presented concerned with providing uncertainty measures for global mean sea level time series. For this purpose sea surface height (SSH) fields, simulated by the high resolution STORM/NCEP model for the period 1993 - 2010, were subsampled along altimeter tracks and processed similar to techniques used by five working groups to estimate GMSL. Results suggest that the spatial and temporal resolution have a substantial impact on GMSL estimates. Major impacts can especially result from the interpolation technique or the treatment of SSH outliers and easily lead to artificial temporal variability in the resulting time series.

  1. Think Global, Act Local; Projectome Estimation with BlueMatter*

    PubMed Central

    Sherbondy, Anthony J.; Dougherty, Robert F.; Ananthanarayanan, Rajagopal; Modha, Dharmendra S.; Wandell, Brian A.

    2011-01-01

    Estimating the complete set of white matter fascicles (the projectome) from diffusion data requires evaluating an enormous number of potential pathways; consequently, most algorithms use computationally efficient greedy methods to search for pathways. The limitation of this approach is that critical global parameters - such as data prediction error and white matter volume conservation - are not taken into account. We describe BlueMatter, a parallel algorithm for global projectome evaluation, which uniquely accounts for global prediction error and volume conservation. Leveraging the BlueGene/L supercomputing architecture, BlueMatter explores a massive database of 180 billion candidate fascicles. The candidates are derived from several sources, including atlases and mutliple tractography algorithms. Using BlueMatter we created the highest resolution, volume-conserved projectome of the human brain. PMID:20426069

  2. Think global, act local; projectome estimation with BlueMatter.

    PubMed

    Sherbondy, Anthony J; Dougherty, Robert F; Ananthanarayanan, Rajagopal; Modha, Dharmendra S; Wandell, Brian A

    2009-01-01

    Estimating the complete set of white matter fascicles (the projectome) from diffusion data requires evaluating an enormous number of potential pathways; consequently, most algorithms use computationally efficient greedy methods to search for pathways. The limitation of this approach is that critical global parameters--such as data prediction error and white matter volume conservation--are not taken into account. We describe BlueMatter, a parallel algorithm for global projectome evaluation, which uniquely accounts for global prediction error and volume conservation. Leveraging the BlueGene/L supercomputing architecture, BlueMatter explores a massive database of 180 billion candidate fascicles. The candidates are derived from several sources, including atlases and multiple tractography algorithms. Using BlueMatter we created the highest resolution, volume-conserved projectome of the human brain.

  3. An improved global wind resource estimate for integrated assessment models

    DOE PAGES

    Eurek, Kelly; Sullivan, Patrick; Gleason, Michael; ...

    2017-11-25

    This study summarizes initial steps to improving the robustness and accuracy of global renewable resource and techno-economic assessments for use in integrated assessment models. We outline a method to construct country-level wind resource supply curves, delineated by resource quality and other parameters. Using mesoscale reanalysis data, we generate estimates for wind quality, both terrestrial and offshore, across the globe. Because not all land or water area is suitable for development, appropriate database layers provide exclusions to reduce the total resource to its technical potential. We expand upon estimates from related studies by: using a globally consistent data source of uniquelymore » detailed wind speed characterizations; assuming a non-constant coefficient of performance for adjusting power curves for altitude; categorizing the distance from resource sites to the electric power grid; and characterizing offshore exclusions on the basis of sea ice concentrations. The product, then, is technical potential by country, classified by resource quality as determined by net capacity factor. Additional classifications dimensions are available, including distance to transmission networks for terrestrial wind and distance to shore and water depth for offshore. We estimate the total global wind generation potential of 560 PWh for terrestrial wind with 90% of resource classified as low-to-mid quality, and 315 PWh for offshore wind with 67% classified as mid-to-high quality. These estimates are based on 3.5 MW composite wind turbines with 90 m hub heights, 0.95 availability, 90% array efficiency, and 5 MW/km2 deployment density in non-excluded areas. We compare the underlying technical assumption and results with other global assessments.« less

  4. Optimizing weak lensing mass estimates for cluster profile uncertainty

    SciTech Connect

    Gruen, D.; Bernstein, G. M.; Lam, T. Y.; Seitz, S.

    2011-09-11

    Weak lensing measurements of cluster masses are necessary for calibrating mass-observable relations (MORs) to investigate the growth of structure and the properties of dark energy. However, the measured cluster shear signal varies at fixed mass M200m due to inherent ellipticity of background galaxies, intervening structures along the line of sight, and variations in the cluster structure due to scatter in concentrations, asphericity and substructure. We use N-body simulated halos to derive and evaluate a weak lensing circular aperture mass measurement Map that minimizes the mass estimate variance <(Map - M200m)2> in the presence of all these forms of variability. Depending on halo mass and observational conditions, the resulting mass estimator improves on Map filters optimized for circular NFW-profile clusters in the presence of uncorrelated large scale structure (LSS) about as much as the latter improve on an estimator that only minimizes the influence of shape noise. Optimizing for uncorrelated LSS while ignoring the variation of internal cluster structure puts too much weight on the profile near the cores of halos, and under some circumstances can even be worse than not accounting for LSS at all. As a result, we discuss the impact of variability in cluster structure and correlated structures on the design and performance of weak lensing surveys intended to calibrate cluster MORs.

  5. Optimizing weak lensing mass estimates for cluster profile uncertainty

    DOE PAGES

    Gruen, D.; Bernstein, G. M.; Lam, T. Y.; ...

    2011-09-11

    Weak lensing measurements of cluster masses are necessary for calibrating mass-observable relations (MORs) to investigate the growth of structure and the properties of dark energy. However, the measured cluster shear signal varies at fixed mass M200m due to inherent ellipticity of background galaxies, intervening structures along the line of sight, and variations in the cluster structure due to scatter in concentrations, asphericity and substructure. We use N-body simulated halos to derive and evaluate a weak lensing circular aperture mass measurement Map that minimizes the mass estimate variance <(Map - M200m)2> in the presence of all these forms of variability. Dependingmore » on halo mass and observational conditions, the resulting mass estimator improves on Map filters optimized for circular NFW-profile clusters in the presence of uncorrelated large scale structure (LSS) about as much as the latter improve on an estimator that only minimizes the influence of shape noise. Optimizing for uncorrelated LSS while ignoring the variation of internal cluster structure puts too much weight on the profile near the cores of halos, and under some circumstances can even be worse than not accounting for LSS at all. As a result, we discuss the impact of variability in cluster structure and correlated structures on the design and performance of weak lensing surveys intended to calibrate cluster MORs.« less

  6. Global estimates of boreal forest carbon stocks and flux

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bradshaw, Corey J. A.; Warkentin, Ian G.

    2015-05-01

    The boreal ecosystem is an important global reservoir of stored carbon and a haven for diverse biological communities. The natural disturbance dynamics there have historically been driven by fire and insects, with human-mediated disturbances increasing faster than in other biomes globally. Previous research on the total boreal carbon stock and predictions of its future flux reveal high uncertainty in regional patterns. We reviewed and standardised this extensive body of quantitative literature to provide the most up-to-date and comprehensive estimates of the global carbon balance in the boreal forest. We also compiled century-scale predictions of the carbon budget flux. Our review and standardisation confirmed high uncertainty in the available data, but there is evidence that the region's total carbon stock has been underestimated. We found a total carbon store of 367.3 to 1715.8 Pg (1015 g), the mid-point of which (1095 Pg) is between 1.3 and 3.8 times larger than any previous mean estimates. Most boreal carbon resides in its soils and peatlands, although estimates are highly uncertain. We found evidence that the region might become a net carbon source following a reduction in carbon uptake rate from at least the 1980s. Given that the boreal potentially constitutes the largest terrestrial carbon source in the world, in one of the most rapidly warming parts of the globe (Walsh, 2014), how we manage these stocks will be influential on future climate dynamics.

  7. Estimation of gross primary production capacity from global satellite observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muramatsu, Kanako; Thanyapraneedkul, Juthasinee; Furumi, Shinobu; Soyama, Noriko; Daigo, Motomasa

    2012-10-01

    To estimate gross primary production (GPP), the process of photosynthesis was considered as two separate phases: capacity and reduction. The reduction phase is influenced by environmental conditions such as soil moisture and weather conditions such as vapor pressure differences. For a particular leaf, photosynthetic capacity mainly depends on the amount of chlorophyll and the RuBisCO enzyme. The chlorophyll content can be estimated by the color of the leaf, and leaf color can be detected by optical sensors. We used the chlorophyll content of leaves to estimate the level of GPP. A previously developed framework for GPP capacity estimation employs a chlorophyll index. The index is based on the linear relationship between the chlorophyll content of a leaf and the maximum photosynthesis at PAR =2000 (μmolm -2s-1) on a light-response curve under low stress conditions. As a first step, this study examined the global distribution of the index and found that regions with high chlorophyll index values in winter corresponded to tropical rainforest areas. The seasonal changes in the chlorophyll index differed from those shown by the normalized difference vegetation index. Next, the capacity of GPP was estimated from the light-response curve using the index. Most regions exhibited a higher GPP capacity than that estimated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations, except in areas of tropical rainforest, where the GPP capacity and the MODIS GPP estimates were almost identical.

  8. A method for estimating the uncertainty of future bone mass.

    PubMed

    He, Y F; Ross, P D; Davis, J W; Maclean, C J; Epstein, R; Wasnich, R D

    1992-01-01

    The development of statistical models for estimating fracture probability is a promising method for quantitating and optimizing the clinical utility of bone mass measurements. Earlier models have assumed that future bone mass could be predicted exactly and were, therefore, limited to analyses that assume the loss rate is known in advance. Since bone loss rates may vary over time and cannot be predicted accurately, we have developed a new model, based on empirical data, that estimates the degree of uncertainty associated with predicted bone mass. Without a bone mass measurement, the population mean must be assumed for an individual. For the calcaneus, the standard deviation of the population distribution is about 60 mg/cm2. By measuring bone mass, one can determine how close or far from the mean an individual's true bone mass is, with a standard deviation (SD) of about 3 mg/cm2. Without a subsequent bone mass measurement, our model predicts that the uncertainty (standard deviation) in calcaneal bone mass will increase approximately sixfold (relative to the reproducibility at the initial measurement) over a period of five years for women under age 60, from 3 mg/cm2 to 19 mg/cm2. The five-year increase in uncertainty is approximately fourfold for women over age 60, from 3 to 13 mg/cm2. However, the uncertainty in bone mass for an individual five years after the initial measurement is still only one third to one fifth that of the entire population, and can be reduced to the initial level by obtaining another measurement. Furthermore, the predicted (or measured) values are usually much better estimates of an individual's true bone mass than simply assuming the population average.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  9. A TRMM-Calibrated Infrared Technique for Global Rainfall Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Negri, Andrew J.; Adler, Robert F.; Xu, Li-Ming

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents the development of a satellite infrared (IR) technique for estimating convective and stratiform rainfall and its application in studying the diurnal variability of rainfall on a global scale. The Convective-Stratiform Technique (CST), calibrated by coincident, physically retrieved rain rates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR), is applied over the global tropics during summer 2001. The technique is calibrated separately over land and ocean, making ingenious use of the IR data from the TRMM Visible/Infrared Scanner (VIRS) before application to global geosynchronous satellite data. The low sampling rate of TRMM PR imposes limitations on calibrating IR- based techniques; however, our research shows that PR observations can be applied to improve IR-based techniques significantly by selecting adequate calibration areas and calibration length. The diurnal cycle of rainfall, as well as the division between convective and t i f m rainfall will be presented. The technique is validated using available data sets and compared to other global rainfall products such as Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) IR product, calibrated with TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) data. The calibrated CST technique has the advantages of high spatial resolution (4 km), filtering of non-raining cirrus clouds, and the stratification of the rainfall into its convective and stratiform components, the latter being important for the calculation of vertical profiles of latent heating.

  10. A TRMM-Calibrated Infrared Technique for Global Rainfall Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Negri, Andrew J.; Adler, Robert F.

    2002-01-01

    The development of a satellite infrared (IR) technique for estimating convective and stratiform rainfall and its application in studying the diurnal variability of rainfall on a global scale is presented. The Convective-Stratiform Technique (CST), calibrated by coincident, physically retrieved rain rates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR), is applied over the global tropics during 2001. The technique is calibrated separately over land and ocean, making ingenious use of the IR data from the TRMM Visible/Infrared Scanner (VIRS) before application to global geosynchronous satellite data. The low sampling rate of TRMM PR imposes limitations on calibrating IR-based techniques; however, our research shows that PR observations can be applied to improve IR-based techniques significantly by selecting adequate calibration areas and calibration length. The diurnal cycle of rainfall, as well as the division between convective and stratiform rainfall will be presented. The technique is validated using available data sets and compared to other global rainfall products such as Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) IR product, calibrated with TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) data. The calibrated CST technique has the advantages of high spatial resolution (4 km), filtering of non-raining cirrus clouds, and the stratification of the rainfall into its convective and stratiform components, the latter being important for the calculation of vertical profiles of latent heating.

  11. Estimates of mass and angular momentum in the oort cloud.

    PubMed

    Marochnik, L S; Mukhin, L M; Sagdeev, R Z

    1988-10-28

    Estimates can be made of unseen mass (in the form of cometary nuclei) at the heliocentric distances between 3 x 10(3) and 2 x 10(4) astronomical units(AU) under the assumptions (i) that the Oort cloud is a rarefied halo surrounding the core (dense, inner cometary cloud) and (ii) that the mass and albedo of comet Halley is typical for comets both in the core and the Oort cloud populations. The mass appears to be approximately 0.03 solar masses, with angular momentum of the order of 10(52) to 10(53) g-cm(2)/s. This mass is of the order of the total mass of the planetary system before the loss of volatiles. This leads to an estimate of a mass M(o) approximately 100 M( plus sign in circle) (where M( plus sign in circle) is the mass of Earth) concentrated in the Oort cloud (r > 2 x 10(4) AU) with an angular momentum that may exceed the present angular momentum of the whole planetary system by one order of magnitude. The present angular momentum of the Oort cloud appears to be of the same order as the total angular momentum of the planetary system before the loss of volatiles.

  12. SAGE and SAM II measurements of global stratospheric aerosol optical depth and mass loading

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kent, G. S.; Mccormick, M. P.

    1984-01-01

    Several volcanic eruptions between November 1979 and April 1981 have injected material into the stratosphere. The SAGE and SAM II satellite systems have measured, with global coverage, the 1-micron extinction produced by this material, and examples of the data product are shown in the form of global maps of stratospheric optical depth and altitude-latitude plots of zonal mean extinction. These data, and that for the volcanically quiet period in early 1979, have been used to determine the changes in the total stratospheric mass loading. Estimates have also been made of the contribution to the total aerosol mass from each eruption. It has been found that between 1979 and mid-1981, the total stratospheric aerosol mass increased from a background level of approximately 570,000 metric tons to a peak of approximately 1,300,000 metric tons.

  13. A Global Estimate of the Number of Coral Reef Fishers.

    PubMed

    Teh, Louise S L; Teh, Lydia C L; Sumaila, U Rashid

    2013-01-01

    Overfishing threatens coral reefs worldwide, yet there is no reliable estimate on the number of reef fishers globally. We address this data gap by quantifying the number of reef fishers on a global scale, using two approaches - the first estimates reef fishers as a proportion of the total number of marine fishers in a country, based on the ratio of reef-related to total marine fish landed values. The second estimates reef fishers as a function of coral reef area, rural coastal population, and fishing pressure. In total, we find that there are 6 million reef fishers in 99 reef countries and territories worldwide, of which at least 25% are reef gleaners. Our estimates are an improvement over most existing fisher population statistics, which tend to omit accounting for gleaners and reef fishers. Our results suggest that slightly over a quarter of the world's small-scale fishers fish on coral reefs, and half of all coral reef fishers are in Southeast Asia. Coral reefs evidently support the socio-economic well-being of numerous coastal communities. By quantifying the number of people who are employed as reef fishers, we provide decision-makers with an important input into planning for sustainable coral reef fisheries at the appropriate scale.

  14. Estimates of the global tidal range energy resource

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robins, Peter; Walkington, Ian

    2017-04-01

    Renewable energy generation through tidal lagoons and barrages is an attractive energy source due to tidal predictability and the potential for energy storage. Yet so far, the annual tidal range resource has only been estimated at relatively coarse spatial resolutions and without detailed investigation of the temporal variation from individual or aggregated sites. In this study, we estimate the theoretical tidal range resource of the northwest European shelf seas, using the 3D Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) at roughly 1 km spatial resolution. Through tidal analysis of model output, we calculate the potential energy in both the rising and falling tides and, hence, show temporal variations in PE throughout the year. Based on a range of energy yield thresholds (rather than thresholds based on M2 range and water depth), we calculate the total annual theoretical resource from dual (flood and ebb) strategies. Using the FES global tidal model, which resolves tidal elevations at 1/16° resolution, the global resource was also estimated with the regions with the highest energy yield isolated. We discuss our estimates in relation to the yield that can actually be obtained mechanically, and in relation to the total energy flux of a region and the potential impacts of different lagoon scenarios on the local and far-field energy fluxes.

  15. Global estimate of aerosol direct radiative forcing from satellite measurements.

    PubMed

    Bellouin, Nicolas; Boucher, Olivier; Haywood, Jim; Reddy, M Shekar

    2005-12-22

    Atmospheric aerosols cause scattering and absorption of incoming solar radiation. Additional anthropogenic aerosols released into the atmosphere thus exert a direct radiative forcing on the climate system. The degree of present-day aerosol forcing is estimated from global models that incorporate a representation of the aerosol cycles. Although the models are compared and validated against observations, these estimates remain uncertain. Previous satellite measurements of the direct effect of aerosols contained limited information about aerosol type, and were confined to oceans only. Here we use state-of-the-art satellite-based measurements of aerosols and surface wind speed to estimate the clear-sky direct radiative forcing for 2002, incorporating measurements over land and ocean. We use a Monte Carlo approach to account for uncertainties in aerosol measurements and in the algorithm used. Probability density functions obtained for the direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere give a clear-sky, global, annual average of -1.9 W m(-2) with standard deviation, +/- 0.3 W m(-2). These results suggest that present-day direct radiative forcing is stronger than present model estimates, implying future atmospheric warming greater than is presently predicted, as aerosol emissions continue to decline.

  16. A Global Estimate of the Number of Coral Reef Fishers

    PubMed Central

    Teh, Louise S. L.; Teh, Lydia C. L.; Sumaila, U. Rashid

    2013-01-01

    Overfishing threatens coral reefs worldwide, yet there is no reliable estimate on the number of reef fishers globally. We address this data gap by quantifying the number of reef fishers on a global scale, using two approaches - the first estimates reef fishers as a proportion of the total number of marine fishers in a country, based on the ratio of reef-related to total marine fish landed values. The second estimates reef fishers as a function of coral reef area, rural coastal population, and fishing pressure. In total, we find that there are 6 million reef fishers in 99 reef countries and territories worldwide, of which at least 25% are reef gleaners. Our estimates are an improvement over most existing fisher population statistics, which tend to omit accounting for gleaners and reef fishers. Our results suggest that slightly over a quarter of the world’s small-scale fishers fish on coral reefs, and half of all coral reef fishers are in Southeast Asia. Coral reefs evidently support the socio-economic well-being of numerous coastal communities. By quantifying the number of people who are employed as reef fishers, we provide decision-makers with an important input into planning for sustainable coral reef fisheries at the appropriate scale. PMID:23840327

  17. Atmospheric methyl bromide - Trends and global mass balance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Khalil, M. A. K.; Rasmussen, R. A.; Gunawardena, R.

    1993-01-01

    A decadal time series of global CH3Br concentrations in the earth's atmosphere is presented. It is shown that average concentrations are about 10 pptv and during the last 4 yr may be increasing at 0.3 +/- 0.1 pptv/yr. It is estimated that the atmospheric lifetime of CH3Br that is due to reaction with OH is about 2 yr, which results in a calculated global emission rate of about 100 Gg/yr. Ocean supersaturations of 140-180 percent are observed, and atmospheric concentrations over the open oceans are higher than at comparably located coastal sites. The ocean source is estimated to be about 35 Gg/yr. The remaining emissions must come from other natural sources and anthropogenic activities.

  18. Estimates of the radii, masses, and luminosities of LAMOST stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sichevskij, S. G.

    2017-01-01

    Based on the spectral observations of the LAMOST (DR2) survey, the radii, masses, and luminosities of 700 481 stars were estimated. These stars belong to spectral types A, F, G, and K, and have metallicities between -0.845 and 0.0. To determine the properties of the stars, we used up-to-date models of the stellar interior structure, computed with account for the stellar evolution rate and the initial mass function. The use of evolutionary estimates for two types of stars—with and without rotation—allowed us to account for the uncertainty associated with the lack of data on the rotation velocity of the stars under consideration. The obtained stellar radii, together with the photometric estimates of interstellar extinction and angular diameters can be used to study the dependence of interstellar extinction on distance as well as to estimate the stellar distances.

  19. Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yuan, W.; Luo, Y.; Li, X.; Liu, S.; Yu, G.; Zhou, T.; Bahn, M.; Black, A.; Desai, A.R.; Cescatti, A.; Marcolla, B.; Jacobs, C.; Chen, J.; Aurela, M.; Bernhofer, C.; Gielen, B.; Bohrer, G.; Cook, D.R.; Dragoni, D.; Dunn, A.L.; Gianelle, D.; Grnwald, T.; Ibrom, A.; Leclerc, M.Y.; Lindroth, A.; Liu, H.; Marchesini, L.B.; Montagnani, L.; Pita, G.; Rodeghiero, M.; Rodrigues, A.; Starr, G.; Stoy, P.C.

    2011-01-01

    Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models still use a global constant BR largely due to the lack of a functional description for BR. In this study, we redefined BR to be ecosystem respiration rate at the mean annual temperature. To test the validity of this concept, we conducted a synthesis analysis using 276 site-years of eddy covariance data, from 79 research sites located at latitudes ranging from ∼3°S to ∼70°N. Results showed that mean annual ER rate closely matches ER rate at mean annual temperature. Incorporation of site-specific BR into global ER model substantially improved simulated ER compared to an invariant BR at all sites. These results confirm that ER at the mean annual temperature can be considered as BR in empirical models. A strong correlation was found between the mean annual ER and mean annual gross primary production (GPP). Consequently, GPP, which is typically more accurately modeled, can be used to estimate BR. A light use efficiency GPP model (i.e., EC-LUE) was applied to estimate global GPP, BR and ER with input data from MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications) and MODIS (Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). The global ER was 103 Pg C yr −1, with the highest respiration rate over tropical forests and the lowest value in dry and high-latitude areas.

  20. Predictive Attitude Estimation Using Global Positioning System Signals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crassidis, John L.; Markley, F. Landis; Lightsey, E. Glenn; Ketchum, Eleanor

    1997-01-01

    In this paper, a new algorithm is developed for attitude estimation using Global Positioning System (GPS) signals. The new algorithm is based on a predictive filtering scheme designed for spacecraft without rate measuring devices. The major advantage of this new algorithm over traditional Kalman filter approaches is that the model error is not assumed to represented by an unbiased Gaussian noise process with known covariance, but instead is determined during the estimation process. This is achieved by simultaneously solving system optimality conditions and an output error constraint. This approach is well suited for GPS attitude estimation since some error sources that contribute to attitude inaccuracy, such as signal multipath, are known to be non-Gaussian processes. Also, the predictive filter scheme can use either GPS signals or vector observations or a combination of both for attitude estimation, so that performance characteristics can be maintained during periods of GPS attitude sensor outage. The performance of the new algorithm is tested using flight data from the REX-2 spacecraft. Results are shown using the predictive filter to estimate the attitude from both GPS signals and magnetometer measurements, and comparing that solution to a magnetometer-only based solution. Results using the new estimation algorithm indicate that GPS-based solutions are verified to within 2 degrees using the magnetometer cross-check for the REX-2 spacecraft. GPS attitude accuracy of better than 1 degree is expected per axis, but cannot be reliably proven due to inaccuracies in the magnetic field model.

  1. Global warming and body mass decline in Israeli passerine birds.

    PubMed Central

    Yom-Tov, Y.

    2001-01-01

    Global warming may affect the physiology, distributions, phenology and adaptations of plants and animals. In Israel, minimum summer temperatures increased by an average of 0.26 degrees C per decade during the second half of the 20th century. Bergmann's rule predicts that, in warm-blooded animals, races from warm regions are smaller than races from cold regions. Numerous studies have reported general correlations between body mass in fossil animals and independently established palaeoclimatic changes from various parts of the world in accordance with this rule. Using museum specimens, I tested the prediction that the body mass and tarsus length of five resident passerine species in Israel declined between 1950 and 1999. The body mass of four species (the graceful warbler Prinia gracilis, the house sparrow Passer domesticus, the yellow-vented bulbul Pycnonotus xanthopygos and the Sardinian warbler Sylvia melanocephala, but not of the crested lark Galerida cristata) declined significantly during this period. Tarsus length also declined significantly during this period for two species (the graceful warbler and the house sparrow). Body condition (body mass-to-tarsus length ratio) decreased in the Sardinian warbler, the yellow-vented bulbul and the crested lark. It is suggested that the above declines in body mass and tarsus length are due to global warming and also in accordance with Bergmann's rule. The above explanation does not exclude the possibility that other factors, such as a decrease in food availability, contributed to the decline in body mass. These declines may have serious implications for community structure and competition among bird species and may affect the survival of small passerines. PMID:11370968

  2. Mass storage estimates for the digital mapping era.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Light, D.L.

    1986-01-01

    Proponents of the digital era recognize that a break-through in mass storage technology may be required to attain a reasonable degree of computerization of the cartographic mapping and data management process. This paper provides the rationale for estimating that about 1014 bits of digital mass storage are needed for developing a digital 1:24 000-scale topographic data base of the US. Also, it will discuss the optical disk as a leading candidate for handling the mass storage dilemma.-from Author

  3. Convex-hull mass estimates of the dodo (Raphus cucullatus): application of a CT-based mass estimation technique

    PubMed Central

    O’Mahoney, Thomas G.; Kitchener, Andrew C.; Manning, Phillip L.; Sellers, William I.

    2016-01-01

    The external appearance of the dodo (Raphus cucullatus, Linnaeus, 1758) has been a source of considerable intrigue, as contemporaneous accounts or depictions are rare. The body mass of the dodo has been particularly contentious, with the flightless pigeon alternatively reconstructed as slim or fat depending upon the skeletal metric used as the basis for mass prediction. Resolving this dichotomy and obtaining a reliable estimate for mass is essential before future analyses regarding dodo life history, physiology or biomechanics can be conducted. Previous mass estimates of the dodo have relied upon predictive equations based upon hind limb dimensions of extant pigeons. Yet the hind limb proportions of dodo have been found to differ considerably from those of their modern relatives, particularly with regards to midshaft diameter. Therefore, application of predictive equations to unusually robust fossil skeletal elements may bias mass estimates. We present a whole-body computed tomography (CT) -based mass estimation technique for application to the dodo. We generate 3D volumetric renders of the articulated skeletons of 20 species of extant pigeons, and wrap minimum-fit ‘convex hulls’ around their bony extremities. Convex hull volume is subsequently regressed against mass to generate predictive models based upon whole skeletons. Our best-performing predictive model is characterized by high correlation coefficients and low mean squared error (a = − 2.31, b = 0.90, r2 = 0.97, MSE = 0.0046). When applied to articulated composite skeletons of the dodo (National Museums Scotland, NMS.Z.1993.13; Natural History Museum, NHMUK A.9040 and S/1988.50.1), we estimate eviscerated body masses of 8–10.8 kg. When accounting for missing soft tissues, this may equate to live masses of 10.6–14.3 kg. Mass predictions presented here overlap at the lower end of those previously published, and support recent suggestions of a relatively slim dodo. CT-based reconstructions provide a

  4. Convex-hull mass estimates of the dodo (Raphus cucullatus): application of a CT-based mass estimation technique.

    PubMed

    Brassey, Charlotte A; O'Mahoney, Thomas G; Kitchener, Andrew C; Manning, Phillip L; Sellers, William I

    2016-01-01

    The external appearance of the dodo (Raphus cucullatus, Linnaeus, 1758) has been a source of considerable intrigue, as contemporaneous accounts or depictions are rare. The body mass of the dodo has been particularly contentious, with the flightless pigeon alternatively reconstructed as slim or fat depending upon the skeletal metric used as the basis for mass prediction. Resolving this dichotomy and obtaining a reliable estimate for mass is essential before future analyses regarding dodo life history, physiology or biomechanics can be conducted. Previous mass estimates of the dodo have relied upon predictive equations based upon hind limb dimensions of extant pigeons. Yet the hind limb proportions of dodo have been found to differ considerably from those of their modern relatives, particularly with regards to midshaft diameter. Therefore, application of predictive equations to unusually robust fossil skeletal elements may bias mass estimates. We present a whole-body computed tomography (CT) -based mass estimation technique for application to the dodo. We generate 3D volumetric renders of the articulated skeletons of 20 species of extant pigeons, and wrap minimum-fit 'convex hulls' around their bony extremities. Convex hull volume is subsequently regressed against mass to generate predictive models based upon whole skeletons. Our best-performing predictive model is characterized by high correlation coefficients and low mean squared error (a = - 2.31, b = 0.90, r (2) = 0.97, MSE = 0.0046). When applied to articulated composite skeletons of the dodo (National Museums Scotland, NMS.Z.1993.13; Natural History Museum, NHMUK A.9040 and S/1988.50.1), we estimate eviscerated body masses of 8-10.8 kg. When accounting for missing soft tissues, this may equate to live masses of 10.6-14.3 kg. Mass predictions presented here overlap at the lower end of those previously published, and support recent suggestions of a relatively slim dodo. CT-based reconstructions provide a means of

  5. TRMM: Status of Precipitation Estimates, Science Highlights, and 3-Hour Global, Tropical Precipitation Estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adler, Robert; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has completed more than three years in orbit. A summary of research highlights will be presented focusing on application of TRMM data to topics ranging from climate analysis, through improving forecasts, to microphysical research. Examples and plans for operational use of TRMM data in tropical cyclone and other applications will be given. The status of precipitation estimates from different instruments and algorithms will be described. Monthly surface rainfall estimates over the ocean based on different instruments on TRMM currently differ by 20% in overall mean. In addition, time changes in global ocean rainfall between El Nino and La Nina conditions show a difference in sign between the active and passive microwave products. These differences are not surprising considering the different type of observations available for the first time from TRMM with both the passive and active microwave sensors. Resolving the differences will strengthen the validity and utility of ocean rainfall estimates. The TRMM rainfall estimates are intercompared among themselves and with other estimates, including those of the standard, monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) analysis. The GPCP analysis agrees roughly in magnitude with the passive microwave-based TRMM estimates which is not surprising considering GPCP over-ocean estimates are based on passive microwave observations. A three-year TRMM rainfall climatology is presented, including anomaly fields related to the changing ENSO situation during the mission. Results of using TRMM information to calibrate other passive microwave observations and geosynchronous infrared rainfall estimates and then merging them those estimates into a global, tropical 3-hour time resolution analysis will also be described.

  6. Estimating maximum global wind power availability and associated climatic consequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, Lee; Gans, Fabian; Kleidon, Axel

    2010-05-01

    Estimating maximum global wind power availability and associated climatic consequences Wind speed reflects the continuous generation of kinetic energy and its dissipation, primarily in the atmospheric boundary layer. When wind turbines extract kinetic wind energy, less kinetic energy remains in the atmosphere in the mean state. While this effect does not play a significant role for a single turbine, it becomes a critical factor for the estimation of large-scale wind power availability. This extraction of kinetic energy by turbines also competes with the natural processes of kinetic energy dissipation, thus setting fundamental limits on extractability that are not considered in previous large-scale studies [1,2,3]. Our simple momentum balance model using ECMWF climate data illustrates a fundamental limit to global wind power extractability and thereby electricity potential (93TW). This is independent of engineering advances in turbine design and wind farm layout. These results are supported by similar results using a global climate model of intermediate complexity. Varying the surface drag coefficient with different simulations allows us to directly relate changes in atmospheric and boundary layer dissipation with resulting climate indices and wind power potential. These new estimates of the maximum power generation by wind turbines are well above the currently installed capacity. Hence, present day installations are unlikely to have a global impact. However, when compared to the current human energy demand of 17TW combined with plans by the US and EU to drastically increase onshore and offshore wind turbine installations [4,5,6], understanding the climatic response and ultimate limitations of wind power as a large-scale renewable energy source is critical. [1] Archer, C., and M.Z. Jacobson, (2005) Evaluation of global wind power, J. Geophys. Res. 110:D12110. [2] Lu, X., M.B. McElroy, and J. Kiviluoma, (2009) Global potential for wind-generated electricity, Proc

  7. Mass estimates from stellar proper motions: the mass of ω Centauri

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Souza, Richard; Rix, Hans-Walter

    2013-03-01

    We lay out and apply methods to use proper motions of individual kinematic tracers for estimating the dynamical mass of star clusters. We first describe a simple projected mass estimator and then develop an approach that evaluates directly the likelihood of the discrete kinematic data given the model predictions. Those predictions may come from any dynamical modelling approach, and we implement an analytic King model, a spherical isotropic Jeans equation model and an axisymmetric, anisotropic Jeans equation model. This maximum likelihood modelling (MLM) provides a framework for a model-data comparison, and a resulting mass estimate, which accounts explicitly for the discrete nature of the data for individual stars, the varying error bars for proper motions of differing signal-to-noise ratio, and for data incompleteness. Both of these two methods are evaluated for their practicality and are shown to provide an unbiased and robust estimate of the cluster mass. We apply these approaches to the enigmatic globular cluster ω Centauri, combining the proper motion from van Leeuwen et al. with improved photometric cluster membership probabilities. We show that all mass estimates based on spherical isotropic models yield (4.55 ± 0.1) × 106 M⊙[D/5.5 ± 0.2 kpc]3, where our modelling allows us to show how the statistical precision of this estimate improves as more proper motion data of lower signal-to-noise ratio are included. MLM predictions, based on an anisotropic axisymmetric Jeans model, indicate for ω Cen that the inclusion of anisotropies is not important for the mass estimates, but that accounting for the flattening is: flattened models imply (4.05 ± 0.1) × 106 M⊙[D/5.5 ± 0.2 kpc]3, 10 per cent lower than when restricting the analysis to a spherical model. The best current distance estimates imply an additional uncertainty in the mass estimate of 12 per cent.

  8. Estimation of global snow cover using passive microwave data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Alfred T. C.; Kelly, Richard E.; Foster, James L.; Hall, Dorothy K.

    2003-04-01

    This paper describes an approach to estimate global snow cover using satellite passive microwave data. Snow cover is detected using the high frequency scattering signal from natural microwave radiation, which is observed by passive microwave instruments. Developed for the retrieval of global snow depth and snow water equivalent using Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer EOS (AMSR-E), the algorithm uses passive microwave radiation along with a microwave emission model and a snow grain growth model to estimate snow depth. The microwave emission model is based on the Dense Media Radiative Transfer (DMRT) model that uses the quasi-crystalline approach and sticky particle theory to predict the brightness temperature from a single layered snowpack. The grain growth model is a generic single layer model based on an empirical approach to predict snow grain size evolution with time. Gridding to the 25 km EASE-grid projection, a daily record of Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) snow depth estimates was generated for December 2000 to March 2001. The estimates are tested using ground measurements from two continental-scale river catchments (Nelson River and the Ob River in Russia). This regional-scale testing of the algorithm shows that for passive microwave estimates, the average daily snow depth retrieval standard error between estimated and measured snow depths ranges from 0 cm to 40 cm of point observations. Bias characteristics are different for each basin. A fraction of the error is related to uncertainties about the grain growth initialization states and uncertainties about grain size changes through the winter season that directly affect the parameterization of the snow depth estimation in the DMRT model. Also, the algorithm does not include a correction for forest cover and this effect is clearly observed in the retrieval. Finally, error is also related to scale differences between in situ ground measurements and area-integrated satellite estimates. With AMSR

  9. Toward Global Soil Moisture Estimation By Satellite Precipitation Radars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seto, S.; Oki, T.; Musiake, K.

    A soil moisture estimation algorithm using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) / Precipitation Radar (PR) is developed to be applied at global scale. In our algorithm, the backscattering coefficients at land surface (denoted as 0) observed by PR is used. As 0 is attenuated by strong rainfall, the data observed during rainfall is not included in our calculation (the percentage if observation is done while it is raining is as small as 5 percent in global average). Soil moisture estimation algorithms by active microwave sensors have been proposed by other researches, though, they are mainly applied to Synthetic Aperture Radars (SAR). TRMM/PR has poor spatial resolution compared with SAR, but the observation frequency (temporal resolution) is as high as passive microwave sensors. On behalf of such high observation frequency, our algorithm can be applied at daily scale which is suitable to analyze soil mois- ture variation. Though TRMM/PR observes by different incident angles from 0 to 18 degree, our algorithm is basically designed for 0(12) (0 observed by 12 degree). Assuming that observed 0 is composed of s (the backscattering at bare soil) and v 0 0 (the backscattering at vegetation layer), it is shown that the sensitivity of 0 to soil moisture is higher by smaller incident angle and the sensitivity of 0 to vegetation cover ratio is lower when observed by 12 degree. If the temporal change of vegetation is not significant, 0 observed by among 3 to 18 degree is well correlated with 0(12). In such case, 0 is converted to 0(12) by linear regression to increase the number of sample per day. The algorithm is firstly applied to Oklahoma in central United States and validated using in-situ soil moisture data. In Oklahoma, the effect of vegetation growth is not significant, then the soil moisture estimates well correspond with in-situ data. Contrastedly, in the Sahel of Africa which shows strong seasonal vegetation cy- cle, 0 obseved by only around 12 degree can be

  10. Approaches and Data Quality for Global Precipitation Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huffman, G. J.; Bolvin, D. T.; Nelkin, E. J.

    2015-12-01

    The space and time scales on which precipitation varies are small compared to the satellite coverage that we have, so it is necessary to merge "all" of the available satellite estimates. Differing retrieval capabilities from the various satellites require inter-calibration for the satellite estimates, while "morphing", i.e., Lagrangian time interpolation, is used to lengthen the period over which time interpolation is valid. Additionally, estimates from geostationary-Earth-orbit infrared data are plentiful, but of sufficiently lower quality compared to low-Earth-orbit passive microwave estimates that they are only used when needed. Finally, monthly surface precipitation gauge data can be used to reduce bias and improve patterns of occurrence for monthly satellite data, and short-interval satellite estimates can be improved with a simple scaling such that they sum to the monthly satellite-gauge combination. The presentation will briefly consider some of the design decisions for practical computation of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission product Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), then examine design choices that maximize value for end users. For example, data fields are provided in the output file that provide insight into the basis for the estimated precipitation, including error, sensor providing the estimate, precipitation phase (solid/liquid), and intermediate precipitation estimates. Another important initiative is successive computations for the same data date/time at longer latencies as additional data are received, which for IMERG is currently done at 6 hours, 16 hours, and 3 months after observation time. Importantly, users require long records for each latency, which runs counter to the data archiving practices at most archive sites. As well, the assignment of Digital Object Identifiers (DOI's) for near-real-time data sets (at 6 and 16 hours for IMERG) is not a settled issue.

  11. Estimating the Global Solar Magnetic Field Distribution Using ADAPT

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arge, C. N.; Henney, C. J.; Toussaint, W. A.; Godinez, H. C.; Hickmann, K. S.

    2014-12-01

    Estimation of the global solar photospheric magnetic field distribution is currently difficult, since only approximately half of the solar surface is magnetically observed at any given time. With the solar rotational period relative to Earth at approximately 27 days, these global maps include observed data that are more than 13 days old. Data assimilation between old and new observations can result in spatial polarity discontinuities that result in significant monopole signals. To help minimize these large discontinuities and to specify the global state of the photospheric magnetic flux distribution as accurately as possible, we have developed the ADAPT (Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport) model, which is comprised of a photospheric magnetic flux transport model that makes use of data assimilation methods. The ADAPT transport model evolves the solar magnetic flux for an ensemble of realizations using different model parameter values, e.g., for rotational, meridional, and super-granular diffusive transport processes. In this presentation, the ADAPT model and the data assimilative methods used within it will be reviewed. Coronal, solar wind, F10.7, and EUV model predictions based on ADAPT global photospheric magnetic field maps as input will be discussed.

  12. Body mass estimates of an exceptionally complete Stegosaurus (Ornithischia: Thyreophora): comparing volumetric and linear bivariate mass estimation methods.

    PubMed

    Brassey, Charlotte A; Maidment, Susannah C R; Barrett, Paul M

    2015-03-01

    Body mass is a key biological variable, but difficult to assess from fossils. Various techniques exist for estimating body mass from skeletal parameters, but few studies have compared outputs from different methods. Here, we apply several mass estimation methods to an exceptionally complete skeleton of the dinosaur Stegosaurus. Applying a volumetric convex-hulling technique to a digital model of Stegosaurus, we estimate a mass of 1560 kg (95% prediction interval 1082-2256 kg) for this individual. By contrast, bivariate equations based on limb dimensions predict values between 2355 and 3751 kg and require implausible amounts of soft tissue and/or high body densities. When corrected for ontogenetic scaling, however, volumetric and linear equations are brought into close agreement. Our results raise concerns regarding the application of predictive equations to extinct taxa with no living analogues in terms of overall morphology and highlight the sensitivity of bivariate predictive equations to the ontogenetic status of the specimen. We emphasize the significance of rare, complete fossil skeletons in validating widely applied mass estimation equations based on incomplete skeletal material and stress the importance of accurately determining specimen age prior to further analyses.

  13. Body mass estimates of an exceptionally complete Stegosaurus (Ornithischia: Thyreophora): comparing volumetric and linear bivariate mass estimation methods

    PubMed Central

    Brassey, Charlotte A.; Maidment, Susannah C. R.; Barrett, Paul M.

    2015-01-01

    Body mass is a key biological variable, but difficult to assess from fossils. Various techniques exist for estimating body mass from skeletal parameters, but few studies have compared outputs from different methods. Here, we apply several mass estimation methods to an exceptionally complete skeleton of the dinosaur Stegosaurus. Applying a volumetric convex-hulling technique to a digital model of Stegosaurus, we estimate a mass of 1560 kg (95% prediction interval 1082–2256 kg) for this individual. By contrast, bivariate equations based on limb dimensions predict values between 2355 and 3751 kg and require implausible amounts of soft tissue and/or high body densities. When corrected for ontogenetic scaling, however, volumetric and linear equations are brought into close agreement. Our results raise concerns regarding the application of predictive equations to extinct taxa with no living analogues in terms of overall morphology and highlight the sensitivity of bivariate predictive equations to the ontogenetic status of the specimen. We emphasize the significance of rare, complete fossil skeletons in validating widely applied mass estimation equations based on incomplete skeletal material and stress the importance of accurately determining specimen age prior to further analyses. PMID:25740841

  14. Global Rotation Estimation Using Weighted Iterative Lie Algebraic Averaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reich, M.; Heipke, C.

    2015-08-01

    In this paper we present an approach for a weighted rotation averaging to estimate absolute rotations from relative rotations between two images for a set of multiple overlapping images. The solution does not depend on initial values for the unknown parameters and is robust against outliers. Our approach is one part of a solution for a global image orientation. Often relative rotations are not free from outliers, thus we use the redundancy in available pairwise relative rotations and present a novel graph-based algorithm to detect and eliminate inconsistent rotations. The remaining relative rotations are input to a weighted least squares adjustment performed in the Lie algebra of the rotation manifold SO(3) to obtain absolute orientation parameters for each image. Weights are determined using the prior information we derived from the estimation of the relative rotations. Because we use the Lie algebra of SO(3) for averaging no subsequent adaptation of the results has to be performed but the lossless projection to the manifold. We evaluate our approach on synthetic and real data. Our approach often is able to detect and eliminate all outliers from the relative rotations even if very high outlier rates are present. We show that we improve the quality of the estimated absolute rotations by introducing individual weights for the relative rotations based on various indicators. In comparison with the state-of-the-art in recent publications to global image orientation we achieve best results in the examined datasets.

  15. Minimum convex hull mass estimations of complete mounted skeletons.

    PubMed

    Sellers, W I; Hepworth-Bell, J; Falkingham, P L; Bates, K T; Brassey, C A; Egerton, V M; Manning, P L

    2012-10-23

    Body mass is a critical parameter used to constrain biomechanical and physiological traits of organisms. Volumetric methods are becoming more common as techniques for estimating the body masses of fossil vertebrates. However, they are often accused of excessive subjective input when estimating the thickness of missing soft tissue. Here, we demonstrate an alternative approach where a minimum convex hull is derived mathematically from the point cloud generated by laser-scanning mounted skeletons. This has the advantage of requiring minimal user intervention and is thus more objective and far quicker. We test this method on 14 relatively large-bodied mammalian skeletons and demonstrate that it consistently underestimates body mass by 21 per cent with minimal scatter around the regression line. We therefore suggest that it is a robust method of estimating body mass where a mounted skeletal reconstruction is available and demonstrate its usage to predict the body mass of one of the largest, relatively complete sauropod dinosaurs: Giraffatitan brancai (previously Brachiosaurus) as 23200 kg.

  16. Minimum convex hull mass estimations of complete mounted skeletons

    PubMed Central

    Sellers, W. I.; Hepworth-Bell, J.; Falkingham, P. L.; Bates, K. T.; Brassey, C. A.; Egerton, V. M.; Manning, P. L.

    2012-01-01

    Body mass is a critical parameter used to constrain biomechanical and physiological traits of organisms. Volumetric methods are becoming more common as techniques for estimating the body masses of fossil vertebrates. However, they are often accused of excessive subjective input when estimating the thickness of missing soft tissue. Here, we demonstrate an alternative approach where a minimum convex hull is derived mathematically from the point cloud generated by laser-scanning mounted skeletons. This has the advantage of requiring minimal user intervention and is thus more objective and far quicker. We test this method on 14 relatively large-bodied mammalian skeletons and demonstrate that it consistently underestimates body mass by 21 per cent with minimal scatter around the regression line. We therefore suggest that it is a robust method of estimating body mass where a mounted skeletal reconstruction is available and demonstrate its usage to predict the body mass of one of the largest, relatively complete sauropod dinosaurs: Giraffatitan brancai (previously Brachiosaurus) as 23200 kg. PMID:22675141

  17. Global positioning system watches for estimating energy expenditure.

    PubMed

    Hongu, Nobuko; Orr, Barron J; Roe, Denise J; Reed, Rebecca G; Going, Scott B

    2013-11-01

    Global positioning system (GPS) watches have been introduced commercially, converting frequent measurements of time, location, speed (pace), and elevation into energy expenditure (EE) estimates. The purpose of this study was to compare EE estimates of 4 different GPS watches (Forerunner, Suunto, Polar, Adeo), at various walking speeds, with EE estimate from a triaxial accelerometer (RT3), which was used as a reference measure in this study. Sixteen healthy young adults completed the study. Participants wore 4 different GPS watches and an RT3 accelerometer and walked at 6-minute intervals on an outdoor track at 3 speeds (3, 5, and 7 km/hr). The statistical significance of differences in EE between the 3 watches was assessed using linear contrasts of the coefficients from the overall model. Reliability across trials for a given device was assessed using intraclass correlation coefficients as estimated in the mixed model. The GPS watches demonstrated lower reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient) across trials when compared with the RT3, particularly at the higher speed, 7 km/hr. Three GPS watches (Forerunner, Polar, and Suunto) significantly and consistently underestimated EE compared with the reference EE given by the RT3 accelerometer (average mean difference: Garmin, -50.5%; Polar, -41.7%; and Suunto, -41.7%; all p < 0.001). Results suggested that caution should be exercised when using commercial GPS watches to estimate EE in athletes during field-based testing and training.

  18. How well can we really estimate the stellar masses of galaxies from broad-band photometry?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitchell, Peter D.; Lacey, Cedric G.; Baugh, Carlton M.; Cole, Shaun

    2013-10-01

    The estimated stellar masses of galaxies are widely used to characterize how the galaxy population evolves over cosmic time. If stellar masses can be estimated in a robust manner, free from any bias, global diagnostics such as the stellar mass function can be used to constrain the physics of galaxy formation. We explore how galaxy stellar masses, estimated by fitting broad-band spectral energy distributions (SEDs) with stellar population models, can be biased as a result of commonly adopted assumptions for the star formation and chemical enrichment histories, recycled fractions and dust attenuation curves of galaxies. We apply the observational technique of broad-band SED fitting to model galaxy SEDs calculated by the theoretical galaxy formation model GALFORM, isolating the effect of each of these assumptions. We find that, averaged over the entire galaxy population, the common assumption of exponentially declining star formation histories does not, by itself, adversely affect stellar mass estimation. However, we also show that this result does not hold when considering galaxies that have undergone a recent burst of star formation. We show that fixing the metallicity in SED fitting or using sparsely sampled metallicity grids can introduce mass-dependent systematics into stellar mass estimates. We find that the common assumption of a star-dust geometry corresponding to a uniform foreground dust screen can cause the stellar masses of dusty model galaxies to be significantly underestimated. Finally, we show that stellar mass functions recovered by applying SED fitting to model galaxies at high redshift can differ significantly in both shape and normalization from the intrinsic mass functions predicted by a given model. In particular, the effects of dust can reduce the normalization at the high-mass end by up to 0.6 dex in some cases. Given these differences, our methodology of using stellar masses estimated from model galaxy SEDs offers a new, self-consistent way to

  19. A global estimate of the full oceanic 13C Suess effect since the preindustrial

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eide, Marie; Olsen, Are; Ninnemann, Ulysses S.; Eldevik, Tor

    2017-03-01

    We present the first estimate of the full global ocean 13C Suess effect since preindustrial times, based on observations. This has been derived by first using the method of Olsen and Ninnemann (2010) to calculate 13C Suess effect estimates on sections spanning the world ocean, which were next mapped on a global 1° × 1° grid. We find a strong 13C Suess effect in the upper 1000 m of all basins, with strongest decrease in the subtropical gyres of the Northern Hemisphere, where δ13C of dissolved inorganic carbon has decreased by more than 0.8‰ since the industrial revolution. At greater depths, a significant 13C Suess effect can only be detected in the northern parts of the North Atlantic Ocean. The relationship between the 13C Suess effect and the concentration of anthropogenic carbon varies strongly between water masses, reflecting the degree to which source waters are equilibrated with the atmospheric 13C Suess effect before sinking. Finally, we estimate a global ocean inventory of anthropogenic CO2 of 92 ± 46 Gt C. This provides an estimate that is almost independent of and consistent, within the uncertainties, with previous estimates.

  20. Nitrogen trifluoride global emissions estimated from updated atmospheric measurements

    PubMed Central

    Arnold, Tim; Harth, Christina M.; Mühle, Jens; Manning, Alistair J.; Salameh, Peter K.; Kim, Jooil; Ivy, Diane J.; Steele, L. Paul; Petrenko, Vasilii V.; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.; Baggenstos, Daniel; Weiss, Ray F.

    2013-01-01

    Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) has potential to make a growing contribution to the Earth’s radiative budget; however, our understanding of its atmospheric burden and emission rates has been limited. Based on a revision of our previous calibration and using an expanded set of atmospheric measurements together with an atmospheric model and inverse method, we estimate that the global emissions of NF3 in 2011 were 1.18 ± 0.21 Gg⋅y−1, or ∼20 Tg CO2-eq⋅y−1 (carbon dioxide equivalent emissions based on a 100-y global warming potential of 16,600 for NF3). The 2011 global mean tropospheric dry air mole fraction was 0.86 ± 0.04 parts per trillion, resulting from an average emissions growth rate of 0.09 Gg⋅y−2 over the prior decade. In terms of CO2 equivalents, current NF3 emissions represent between 17% and 36% of the emissions of other long-lived fluorinated compounds from electronics manufacture. We also estimate that the emissions benefit of using NF3 over hexafluoroethane (C2F6) in electronics manufacture is significant—emissions of between 53 and 220 Tg CO2-eq⋅y−1 were avoided during 2011. Despite these savings, total NF3 emissions, currently ∼10% of production, are still significantly larger than expected assuming global implementation of ideal industrial practices. As such, there is a continuing need for improvements in NF3 emissions reduction strategies to keep pace with its increasing use and to slow its rising contribution to anthropogenic climate forcing. PMID:23341630

  1. Estimates of isospin breaking contributions to baryon masses

    SciTech Connect

    Ha, Phuoc

    2007-10-01

    We estimate the isospin breaking contributions to the baryon masses which we analyzed recently using a loop expansion in the heavy-baryon chiral effective field theory. To one loop, the isospin breaking corrections come from the effects of the d, u quark mass difference, the Coulomb and magnetic moment interactions, and effective point interactions attributable to color-magnetic effects. The addition of the first meson loop corrections introduces new structure. We estimate the resulting low-energy, long-range contributions to the mass splittings by regularizing the loop integrals using connections to dynamical models for finite-size baryons. We find that the resulting contributions to the isospin breaking corrections are of the right general size, have the correct sign pattern, and agree with the experimental values within the margin of error.

  2. Mass estimation in the breakups of Soviet satellites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Badhwar, Gautam D.; Anz-Meador, Phillip D.

    1990-01-01

    An attempt is made to estimate the mass of the parent satellite from the mass of the debris remaining from its breakup using a technique based on the decay rate and radar cross-section time history. The decay of perigee and apogee with time of an object in orbit provides the area-to-mass ratio and the radar cross-section provides a measure of the effective area of the object, while combining the two gives the mass of the object. The technique has been successfully applied to 12 U.S. breakups and one Arianespace breakup. Calculations exhibiting good agreement with reference mass are also discussed for Soviet intact C-class boosters, intact ASAT target satellites, and intact navigational satellites. It is found that the calculated mass of the ASAT interceptor spacecraft is about one-half of the expected mass, but it is pointed out that this may be due to fuel carried on board. For ASAT target breakups the calculated mass is 20-30 times too low; no clear explanation can yet be found for this phenomenon.

  3. The global burden of other musculoskeletal disorders: estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study.

    PubMed

    Smith, Emma; Hoy, Damian G; Cross, Marita; Vos, Theo; Naghavi, Mohsen; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Woolf, Anthony D; March, Lyn

    2014-08-01

    To estimate disability from the remainder of musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders (categorised as other MSK) not covered by the estimates made specifically for osteoarthritis (OA), rheumatoid arthritis (RA), gout, low back pain and neck pain, as part of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 study. Systematic reviews were conducted to gather the age-sex-specific epidemiological data for other MSK. The focus was on finding health surveys and published studies that measured the overall amount of MSK disorders and complaints, and classified the remainder of MSK disorders that was not RA, OA, gout, low back or neck pain. Six levels of severity were defined to derive disability weights (DWs) and severity distribution. The data, DWs and severity distribution were used to calculate years of life lived with disability (YLDs). Mortality was estimated for MSK-related deaths classified under other MSK. YLDs were added to years of life lost (YLLs) from the mortality estimates to derive overall burden in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Global prevalence of other MSK was 8.4% (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 8.1% to 8.6%). DALYs increased from 20.6 million (95% UI 17.0 to 23.3 million) in 1990 to 30.9 million (95% UI 25.8 to 34.6 million) in 2010. The burden of other MSK increased with age. Globally, other MSK disability burden (YLD) ranked sixth. Ageing of the global population will further increase the burden of other MSK. Specific MSK conditions within this large category should be considered separately to enable more explicit estimates of their burden in future iterations of GBD. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  4. Estimating Mass of Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerators Using Dimensionless Parameters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Samareh, Jamshid A.

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes a technique for estimating mass for inflatable aerodynamic decelerators. The technique uses dimensional analysis to identify a set of dimensionless parameters for inflation pressure, mass of inflation gas, and mass of flexible material. The dimensionless parameters enable scaling of an inflatable concept with geometry parameters (e.g., diameter), environmental conditions (e.g., dynamic pressure), inflation gas properties (e.g., molecular mass), and mass growth allowance. This technique is applicable for attached (e.g., tension cone, hypercone, and stacked toroid) and trailing inflatable aerodynamic decelerators. The technique uses simple engineering approximations that were developed by NASA in the 1960s and 1970s, as well as some recent important developments. The NASA Mars Entry and Descent Landing System Analysis (EDL-SA) project used this technique to estimate the masses of the inflatable concepts that were used in the analysis. The EDL-SA results compared well with two independent sets of high-fidelity finite element analyses.

  5. Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals.

    PubMed

    Hughes, Terry P; Kerry, James T; Álvarez-Noriega, Mariana; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G; Anderson, Kristen D; Baird, Andrew H; Babcock, Russell C; Beger, Maria; Bellwood, David R; Berkelmans, Ray; Bridge, Tom C; Butler, Ian R; Byrne, Maria; Cantin, Neal E; Comeau, Steeve; Connolly, Sean R; Cumming, Graeme S; Dalton, Steven J; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Eakin, C Mark; Figueira, Will F; Gilmour, James P; Harrison, Hugo B; Heron, Scott F; Hoey, Andrew S; Hobbs, Jean-Paul A; Hoogenboom, Mia O; Kennedy, Emma V; Kuo, Chao-Yang; Lough, Janice M; Lowe, Ryan J; Liu, Gang; McCulloch, Malcolm T; Malcolm, Hamish A; McWilliam, Michael J; Pandolfi, John M; Pears, Rachel J; Pratchett, Morgan S; Schoepf, Verena; Simpson, Tristan; Skirving, William J; Sommer, Brigitte; Torda, Gergely; Wachenfeld, David R; Willis, Bette L; Wilson, Shaun K

    2017-03-15

    During 2015-2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs.

  6. Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hughes, Terry P.; Kerry, James T.; Álvarez-Noriega, Mariana; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G.; Anderson, Kristen D.; Baird, Andrew H.; Babcock, Russell C.; Beger, Maria; Bellwood, David R.; Berkelmans, Ray; Bridge, Tom C.; Butler, Ian R.; Byrne, Maria; Cantin, Neal E.; Comeau, Steeve; Connolly, Sean R.; Cumming, Graeme S.; Dalton, Steven J.; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Eakin, C. Mark; Figueira, Will F.; Gilmour, James P.; Harrison, Hugo B.; Heron, Scott F.; Hoey, Andrew S.; Hobbs, Jean-Paul A.; Hoogenboom, Mia O.; Kennedy, Emma V.; Kuo, Chao-Yang; Lough, Janice M.; Lowe, Ryan J.; Liu, Gang; McCulloch, Malcolm T.; Malcolm, Hamish A.; McWilliam, Michael J.; Pandolfi, John M.; Pears, Rachel J.; Pratchett, Morgan S.; Schoepf, Verena; Simpson, Tristan; Skirving, William J.; Sommer, Brigitte; Torda, Gergely; Wachenfeld, David R.; Willis, Bette L.; Wilson, Shaun K.

    2017-03-01

    During 2015-2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs.

  7. Observationally-constrained estimates of global small-mode AOD

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, K.; Chung, C. E.

    2012-12-01

    Small aerosols are mostly anthropogenic, and an area average of the small-mode aerosol optical depth (sAOD) is a powerful and independent measure of anthropogenic aerosol emission. We estimate AOD and sAOD globally on a monthly time scale from 2001 to 2010 by integrating satellite-based (MODIS and MISR) and ground-based (AERONET) observations. For sAOD, three integration methods were developed to maximize the influence of AERONET data and ensure consistency between MODIS, MISR and AERONET sAOD data. We evaluated each method by applying the technique with fewer AERONET data and comparing its output with the unused AERONET data. The best performing method gives an overall error of 13 ± 2%, compared with an overall error of 62% in simply using MISR sAOD, and this method takes advantage of an empirical relationship between the Ångström exponent (AE) and fine mode fraction (FMF). This relationship is obtained by analyzing AERONET data. Using our integrated data, we find that the global 2001-2010 average of 500 nm AOD and sAOD is 0.17 and 0.094, respectively. sAOD over eastern China is several times as large as the global average. The linear trend from 2001 to 2010 is found to be slightly negative in global AOD or global sAOD. In India and eastern China combined, however, sAOD increased by more than 4% against a backdrop of decreasing AOD and large-mode AOD. On the contrary to India and China, the west (Western Europe and US/Canada combined) is found to have a sAOD reduction of -20%. These results quantify the overall anthropogenic aerosol emission reduction in the west, and rapidly deteriorating conditions in Asia. Moreover, our results in the west are consistent with the so-called surface brightening phenomenon in the recent decades.

  8. Friction- and mountain-torque estimates from global atmospheric data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wahr, J. M.; Oort, A. H.

    1984-01-01

    Seasonal, zonal surface torques between the atmosphere and the earth are estimated and compared, using data from a number of independent sources. The mountain torque is computed both from surface pressure data and from isobaric height data. The friction torque is estimated from the oceanic stress data of Hellerman and Rosenstein. Results for the total torque are inferred from atmospheric angular momentum data. Finally, the globally integrated total torque is compared with astronomical observations of the earth's rotation rate. These comparisons help us to assess the quality of the different results. Zonal torques are also computed using results from a GFDL general circulation model of the atmosphere. A comparison with the corresponding results inferred from real data is presented and interpreted in terms of model accuracy.

  9. Estimating the Global Burden of Endemic Canine Rabies

    PubMed Central

    Hampson, Katie; Coudeville, Laurent; Lembo, Tiziana; Sambo, Maganga; Kieffer, Alexia; Attlan, Michaël; Barrat, Jacques; Blanton, Jesse D.; Briggs, Deborah J.; Cleaveland, Sarah; Costa, Peter; Freuling, Conrad M.; Hiby, Elly; Knopf, Lea; Leanes, Fernando; Meslin, François-Xavier; Metlin, Artem; Miranda, Mary Elizabeth; Müller, Thomas; Nel, Louis H.; Recuenco, Sergio; Rupprecht, Charles E.; Schumacher, Carolin; Taylor, Louise; Vigilato, Marco Antonio Natal; Zinsstag, Jakob; Dushoff, Jonathan

    2015-01-01

    Background Rabies is a notoriously underreported and neglected disease of low-income countries. This study aims to estimate the public health and economic burden of rabies circulating in domestic dog populations, globally and on a country-by-country basis, allowing an objective assessment of how much this preventable disease costs endemic countries. Methodology/Principal Findings We established relationships between rabies mortality and rabies prevention and control measures, which we incorporated into a model framework. We used data derived from extensive literature searches and questionnaires on disease incidence, control interventions and preventative measures within this framework to estimate the disease burden. The burden of rabies impacts on public health sector budgets, local communities and livestock economies, with the highest risk of rabies in the poorest regions of the world. This study estimates that globally canine rabies causes approximately 59,000 (95% Confidence Intervals: 25-159,000) human deaths, over 3.7 million (95% CIs: 1.6-10.4 million) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and 8.6 billion USD (95% CIs: 2.9-21.5 billion) economic losses annually. The largest component of the economic burden is due to premature death (55%), followed by direct costs of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP, 20%) and lost income whilst seeking PEP (15.5%), with only limited costs to the veterinary sector due to dog vaccination (1.5%), and additional costs to communities from livestock losses (6%). Conclusions/Significance This study demonstrates that investment in dog vaccination, the single most effective way of reducing the disease burden, has been inadequate and that the availability and affordability of PEP needs improving. Collaborative investments by medical and veterinary sectors could dramatically reduce the current large, and unnecessary, burden of rabies on affected communities. Improved surveillance is needed to reduce uncertainty in burden estimates and to

  10. Estimating global chlorophyll changes over the past century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boyce, Daniel G.; Dowd, Michael; Lewis, Marlon R.; Worm, Boris

    2014-03-01

    Marine phytoplankton account for approximately half of the production of organic matter on earth, support virtually all marine ecosystems, constrain fisheries yields, and influence climate and weather. Despite this importance, long-term trajectories of phytoplankton abundance or biomass are difficult to estimate, and the extent of changes is unresolved. Here, we use a new, publicly-available database of historical shipboard oceanographic measurements to estimate long-term changes in chlorophyll concentration (Chl; a widely used proxy for phytoplankton biomass) from 1890 to 2010. This work builds upon an earlier analysis (Boyce et al., 2010) by taking published criticisms into account, and by using recalibrated data, and novel analysis methods. Rates of long-term chlorophyll change were estimated using generalized additive models within a multi-model inference framework, and post hoc sensitivity analyses were undertaken to test the robustness of results. Our analysis revealed statistically significant Chl declines over 62% of the global ocean surface area where data were present, and in 8 of 11 large ocean regions. While Chl increases have occurred in many locations, weighted syntheses of local- and regional-scale estimates confirmed that average chlorophyll concentrations have declined across the majority of the global ocean area over the past century. Sensitivity analyses indicate that these changes do not arise from any bias between data types, nor do they depend upon the method of spatial or temporal aggregation, nor the use of a particular statistical model. The wider consequences of this long-term decline of marine phytoplankton are presently unresolved, but will need to be considered in future studies of marine ecosystem structure, geochemical cycling, and fishery yields.

  11. HIV Due to Female Sex Work: Regional and Global Estimates

    PubMed Central

    Prüss-Ustün, Annette; Wolf, Jennyfer; Driscoll, Tim; Degenhardt, Louisa; Neira, Maria; Calleja, Jesus Maria Garcia

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Female sex workers (FSWs) are at high risk of HIV infection. Our objective was to determine the proportion of HIV prevalence in the general female adult population that is attributable to the occupational exposure of female sex work, due to unprotected sexual intercourse. Methods Population attributable fractions of HIV prevalence due to female sex work were estimated for 2011. A systematic search was conducted to retrieve required input data from available sources. Data gaps of HIV prevalence in FSWs for 2011 were filled using multilevel modeling and multivariate linear regression. The fraction of HIV attributable to female sex work was estimated as the excess HIV burden in FSWs deducting the HIV burden in FSWs due to injecting drug use. Results An estimated fifteen percent of HIV in the general female adult population is attributable to (unsafe) female sex work. The region with the highest attributable fraction is Sub Saharan Africa, but the burden is also substantial for the Caribbean, Latin America and South and Southeast Asia. We estimate 106,000 deaths from HIV are a result of female sex work globally, 98,000 of which occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. If HIV prevalence in other population groups originating from sexual contact with FSWs had been considered, the overall attributable burden would probably be much larger. Discussion Female sex work is an important contributor to HIV transmission and the global HIV burden. Effective HIV prevention measures exist and have been successfully targeted at key populations in many settings. These must be scaled up. Conclusion FSWs suffer from high HIV burden and are a crucial core population for HIV transmission. Surveillance, prevention and treatment of HIV in FSWs should benefit both this often neglected vulnerable group and the general population. PMID:23717432

  12. Mass support for global climate agreements depends on institutional design.

    PubMed

    Bechtel, Michael M; Scheve, Kenneth F

    2013-08-20

    Effective climate mitigation requires international cooperation, and these global efforts need broad public support to be sustainable over the long run. We provide estimates of public support for different types of climate agreements in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Using data from a large-scale experimental survey, we explore how three key dimensions of global climate cooperation--costs and distribution, participation, and enforcement--affect individuals' willingness to support these international efforts. We find that design features have significant effects on public support. Specifically, our results indicate that support is higher for global climate agreements that involve lower costs, distribute costs according to prominent fairness principles, encompass more countries, and include a small sanction if a country fails to meet its emissions reduction targets. In contrast to well-documented baseline differences in public support for climate mitigation efforts, opinion responds similarly to changes in climate policy design in all four countries. We also find that the effects of institutional design features can bring about decisive changes in the level of public support for a global climate agreement. Moreover, the results appear consistent with the view that the sensitivity of public support to design features reflects underlying norms of reciprocity and individuals' beliefs about the potential effectiveness of specific agreements.

  13. Mass support for global climate agreements depends on institutional design

    PubMed Central

    Bechtel, Michael M.; Scheve, Kenneth F.

    2013-01-01

    Effective climate mitigation requires international cooperation, and these global efforts need broad public support to be sustainable over the long run. We provide estimates of public support for different types of climate agreements in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Using data from a large-scale experimental survey, we explore how three key dimensions of global climate cooperation—costs and distribution, participation, and enforcement—affect individuals’ willingness to support these international efforts. We find that design features have significant effects on public support. Specifically, our results indicate that support is higher for global climate agreements that involve lower costs, distribute costs according to prominent fairness principles, encompass more countries, and include a small sanction if a country fails to meet its emissions reduction targets. In contrast to well-documented baseline differences in public support for climate mitigation efforts, opinion responds similarly to changes in climate policy design in all four countries. We also find that the effects of institutional design features can bring about decisive changes in the level of public support for a global climate agreement. Moreover, the results appear consistent with the view that the sensitivity of public support to design features reflects underlying norms of reciprocity and individuals’ beliefs about the potential effectiveness of specific agreements. PMID:23886666

  14. Global Water Resources Under Future Changes: Toward an Improved Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Islam, M.; Agata, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2005-05-01

    Global water resources availability in the 21st century is going to be an important concern. Despite its international recognition, however, until now there are very limited global estimates of water resources, which considered the geographical linkage between water supply and demand, defined by runoff and its passage through river network. The available studies are again insufficient due to reasons like different approaches in defining water scarcity, simply based on annual average figures without considering the inter-annual or seasonal variability, absence of the inclusion of virtual water trading, etc. In this study, global water resources under future climate change associated with several socio-economic factors were estimated varying over both temporal and spatial scale. Global runoff data was derived from several land surface models under the GSWP2 (Global Soil Wetness Project) project, which was further processed through TRIP (Total Runoff Integrated Pathways) river routing model to produce a 0.5x0.5 degree grid based figure. Water abstraction was estimated for the same spatial resolution for three sectors as domestic, industrial and agriculture. GCM outputs from CCSR and MRI were collected to predict the runoff changes. Socio-economic factors like population and GDP growth, affected mostly the demand part. Instead of simply looking at annual figures, monthly figures for both supply and demand was considered. For an average year, such a seasonal variability can affect the crop yield significantly. In other case, inter-annual variability of runoff can cause for an absolute drought condition. To account for vulnerabilities of a region to future changes, both inter-annual and seasonal effects were thus considered. At present, the study assumed the future agricultural water uses to be unchanged under climatic changes. In this connection, EPIC model is underway to use for estimating future agricultural water demand under climatic changes on a monthly basis. From

  15. Scaling methane emissions in ruminants and global estimates in wild populations.

    PubMed

    Pérez-Barbería, F J

    2017-02-01

    Methane (CH4) emissions by human activities have more than doubled since the 1700s, and they contribute to global warming. One of the sources of CH4 is produced by incomplete oxidation of feed in the ruminant's gut. Domestic ruminants produce most of the emissions from animal sources, but emissions by wild ruminants have been poorly estimated. This study (i) scales CH4 against body mass in 503 experiments in ruminants fed herbage, and assesses the effect of different sources of variation, using published and new data; and (ii) it uses these models to produce global estimates of CH4 emissions from wild ruminants. The incorporation of phylogeny, diet and technique of measuring in to a model that scales log10 CH4gd(-1) against log10 body mass (kg), reduces the slope, from 1.075 to 0.868, making it not significantly steeper than the scaling coefficient of metabolic requirements to body mass. Scaling models that include dry matter intake (DMI) and dietary fiber indicate that although both increase CH4, dietary fiber depresses CH4 as the levels of DMI increases. Cattle produces more CH4 per unit of DMI than red deer, sheep or goat, and there are no significant differences between CH4 produced by red deer and sheep. The average estimates of global emissions from wild ruminants calculated using different models are smaller (1.094-2.687Tgy(-1)) than those presented in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (15Tgyr(-1)). Potential causes to explain such discrepancy are the uncertainty on the world's wild ruminant population size, and the use of methane output from cattle, a high methane producer, as representative methane output of wild ruminants. The main limitation researchers' face in calculating accurate global CH4 emissions from wild ungulates is a lack of reliable information on their population sizes.

  16. A new, high-resolution global mass coral bleaching database

    PubMed Central

    Rickbeil, Gregory J. M.; Heron, Scott F.

    2017-01-01

    Episodes of mass coral bleaching have been reported in recent decades and have raised concerns about the future of coral reefs on a warming planet. Despite the efforts to enhance and coordinate coral reef monitoring within and across countries, our knowledge of the geographic extent of mass coral bleaching over the past few decades is incomplete. Existing databases, like ReefBase, are limited by the voluntary nature of contributions, geographical biases in data collection, and the variations in the spatial scale of bleaching reports. In this study, we have developed the first-ever gridded, global-scale historical coral bleaching database. First, we conducted a targeted search for bleaching reports not included in ReefBase by personally contacting scientists and divers conducting monitoring in under-reported locations and by extracting data from the literature. This search increased the number of observed bleaching reports by 79%, from 4146 to 7429. Second, we employed spatial interpolation techniques to develop annual 0.04° × 0.04° latitude-longitude global maps of the probability that bleaching occurred for 1985 through 2010. Initial results indicate that the area of coral reefs with a more likely than not (>50%) or likely (>66%) probability of bleaching was eight times higher in the second half of the assessed time period, after the 1997/1998 El Niño. The results also indicate that annual maximum Degree Heating Weeks, a measure of thermal stress, for coral reefs with a high probability of bleaching increased over time. The database will help the scientific community more accurately assess the change in the frequency of mass coral bleaching events, validate methods of predicting mass coral bleaching, and test whether coral reefs are adjusting to rising ocean temperatures. PMID:28445534

  17. A new, high-resolution global mass coral bleaching database.

    PubMed

    Donner, Simon D; Rickbeil, Gregory J M; Heron, Scott F

    2017-01-01

    Episodes of mass coral bleaching have been reported in recent decades and have raised concerns about the future of coral reefs on a warming planet. Despite the efforts to enhance and coordinate coral reef monitoring within and across countries, our knowledge of the geographic extent of mass coral bleaching over the past few decades is incomplete. Existing databases, like ReefBase, are limited by the voluntary nature of contributions, geographical biases in data collection, and the variations in the spatial scale of bleaching reports. In this study, we have developed the first-ever gridded, global-scale historical coral bleaching database. First, we conducted a targeted search for bleaching reports not included in ReefBase by personally contacting scientists and divers conducting monitoring in under-reported locations and by extracting data from the literature. This search increased the number of observed bleaching reports by 79%, from 4146 to 7429. Second, we employed spatial interpolation techniques to develop annual 0.04° × 0.04° latitude-longitude global maps of the probability that bleaching occurred for 1985 through 2010. Initial results indicate that the area of coral reefs with a more likely than not (>50%) or likely (>66%) probability of bleaching was eight times higher in the second half of the assessed time period, after the 1997/1998 El Niño. The results also indicate that annual maximum Degree Heating Weeks, a measure of thermal stress, for coral reefs with a high probability of bleaching increased over time. The database will help the scientific community more accurately assess the change in the frequency of mass coral bleaching events, validate methods of predicting mass coral bleaching, and test whether coral reefs are adjusting to rising ocean temperatures.

  18. Global-mean marine δ13C and its uncertainty in a glacial state estimate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gebbie, Geoffrey; Peterson, Carlye D.; Lisiecki, Lorraine E.; Spero, Howard J.

    2015-10-01

    A paleo-data compilation with 492 δ13C and δ18O observations provides the opportunity to better sample the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and infer its global properties, such as the mean δ13C of dissolved inorganic carbon. Here, the paleo-compilation is used to reconstruct a steady-state water-mass distribution for the LGM, that in turn is used to map the data onto a 3D global grid. A global-mean marine δ13C value and a self-consistent uncertainty estimate are derived using the framework of state estimation (i.e., combining a numerical model and observations). The LGM global-mean δ13C is estimated to be 0.14‰ ± 0.20‰ at the two standard error level, giving a glacial-to-modern change of 0.32‰ ± 0.20‰. The magnitude of the error bar is attributed to the uncertain glacial ocean circulation and the lack of observational constraints in the Pacific, Indian, and Southern Oceans. To halve the error bar, roughly four times more observations are needed, although strategic sampling may reduce this number. If dynamical constraints can be used to better characterize the LGM circulation, the error bar can also be reduced to 0.05 to 0.1‰, emphasizing that knowledge of the circulation is vital to accurately map δ13C in three dimensions.

  19. An empirical model for global earthquake fatality estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David

    2010-01-01

    We analyzed mortality rates of earthquakes worldwide and developed a country/region-specific empirical model for earthquake fatality estimation within the U. S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. The earthquake fatality rate is defined as total killed divided by total population exposed at specific shaking intensity level. The total fatalities for a given earthquake are estimated by multiplying the number of people exposed at each shaking intensity level by the fatality rates for that level and then summing them at all relevant shaking intensities. The fatality rate is expressed in terms of a two-parameter lognormal cumulative distribution function of shaking intensity. The parameters are obtained for each country or a region by minimizing the residual error in hindcasting the total shaking-related deaths from earthquakes recorded between 1973 and 2007. A new global regionalization scheme is used to combine the fatality data across different countries with similar vulnerability traits. [DOI: 10.1193/1.3480331

  20. Estimates of Gelatinous Zooplankton Carbon Flux in the Global Oceans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, J. Y.; Condon, R.; Cowen, R. K.

    2016-02-01

    Gelatinous zooplankton (GZ), which include the cnidarians, ctenophores, and pelagic tunicates, are a common feature of marine ecosystems worldwide, but their contribution to global biogeochemical fluxes has never been assessed. We constructed a carbon-cycle model with a single, annual time-step and resolved to a 5° spatial grid for the three major GZ groups in order to evaluate the GZ-mediated carbon fluxes and export to depth. Biomass inputs (totaling 0.149 Pg C) were based off of Lucas et al. (2014) and updated using the JeDI database (Condon et al. 2015). From the upper ocean, biomass export flux from cnidarians, ctenophores, and tunicates totaled 2.96 ± 2.82 Pg C y-1, though only 0.199 ± 0.023 Pg C y-1 of GZ carbon were transferred to upper trophic levels, roughly amounting to one-quarter of all mesozooplankton production flux. In contrast, GZ fluxes to DOC only comprised ca. 2% of labile DOC flux. Egestion flux from the upper ocean totaled 2.56 ± 3.35 Pg C y-1, with over 80% being fast-sinking tunicate fecal pellets. Due to fast sinking rates of carcasses and fecal pellets, 26% of all C export from the upper ocean reached the seafloor, such that GZ fecal matter is estimated to comprise between 20-30% of global POC surface export and 11-30% of POC seafloor deposition. Finally, results from sensitivity analyses showed no increase in cnidarian and ctenophore export fluxes with increased temperature and jelly biomass, though tunicate export fluxes showed some increase with both temperature and biomass. These results suggest that current estimates of global POC flux from the surface oceans, which range between 8.6 - 12.9 Pg C y-1, may be underestimated by as much as 20 - 25%, implying a definite need to incorporate GZ mediated flux in estimating the biological pump transfer efficiency. Our study represents the first effort to quantify the role of gelatinous zooplankton in the global marine carbon cycle.

  1. Global estimation of above-cloud aerosols using spaceborne LIDAR

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chand, D.; Wood, R.; Anderson, T. L.; Satheesh, S. K.; Leahy, L.

    2008-12-01

    Estimates of global mean direct climate forcing by absorbing aerosols located above boundary layer clouds are large, uncertain, and almost entirely unconstrained by observations. Spaceborne lidar offers a new opportunity of estimating the aerosols at global scale. Here we use two recently available techniques quantifying the above-cloud aerosols using liquid water clouds as lidar targets from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) [Chand et al., 2008]. Both methods can quantify aerosols above clouds and are based on their self-calibrating techniques. We used one year of global data between 70N-70S to show that day time calibration constants are different than night time calibrations constants. A clear latitudinal dependence is observed in the calibrations constants in CALIPSO observations. Using these 'self-calibration' constants, aerosol optical depth (AOD) and angstrom exponent (AE) of 'above- cloud' aerosols are quantified. Biomass burning is a major source of fine mode aerosols in different regions of world. For example, it is observed that June is the onset of the biomass burning fires in Southern Africa, peaking in August and September and then slowly decreasing until November, with a corresponding signature in aerosol optical depth. Layers with aerosol optical depth greater than 0.3 are commonly observed up to several thousand kilometers away from Africa over the Atlantic Ocean. The 'above-cloud' AOD as high as 1.5 is observed in the peak months. Despite of large variations is AOD, mean AE of these aerosols is about 1.6, without any systematic variability away from the source region. The results estimating the aerosols above clouds, including other regions at global scale, will be presented in the AGU meeting. Chand, D., T. L. Anderson, R. Wood, R. J. Charlson, Y. Hu, Z. Liu, and M. Vaughan (2008), Quantifying above-cloud aerosol using spaceborne lidar for improved understanding of cloudy-sky direct climate forcing, J

  2. Global Estimates of PBL Depth from Space-Borne LIDAR

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGrath-Spangler, E. L.; Denning, S.; Molod, A.; Ott, L. E.

    2012-12-01

    The planetary boundary layer (PBL) is responsible for communicating the exchange of energy, moisture, momentum, pollutants, and aerosols between the surface and the free atmosphere and is therefore crucial to many studies of the atmosphere. Unfortunately, there have historically been few observations of this important layer due to the complexity involved in its measurement. However, with the advent of more advanced satellites, global measurements of the PBL are now becoming possible. The PBL is often characterized by a high concentration of aerosols within the layer and low level clouds capping it and these are observable from space. The Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) satellite was launched in 2006 with the intention of observing aerosols and clouds and was the first space-based LIDAR optimized for this purpose. CALIPSO observations are therefore well suited to observing the depth of the PBL. Since it was launched, CALIPSO has been making nearly continuous measurements enabling a global picture of PBL depth. We plan to present a global PBL depth product and how it evolves throughout the year. The product is able to identify deeper PBL depths in the summer hemisphere over land and deeper depths along the northern hemisphere oceanic storm tracks in winter associated with cold air traveling over warm water. Large seasonal cycles are also evident in the subtropical desert locations among other features. In addition, comparisons will be made between several estimates of PBL depth based on turbulent intensity, meteorology profiles, and aerosol profiles from the GEOS5 model.

  3. A Global Estimate of Seafood Consumption by Coastal Indigenous Peoples

    PubMed Central

    Pauly, Daniel; Weatherdon, Lauren V.

    2016-01-01

    Coastal Indigenous peoples rely on ocean resources and are highly vulnerable to ecosystem and economic change. Their challenges have been observed and recognized at local and regional scales, yet there are no global-scale analyses to inform international policies. We compile available data for over 1,900 coastal Indigenous communities around the world representing 27 million people across 87 countries. Based on available data at local and regional levels, we estimate a total global yearly seafood consumption of 2.1 million (1.5 million–2.8 million) metric tonnes by coastal Indigenous peoples, equal to around 2% of global yearly commercial fisheries catch. Results reflect the crucial role of seafood for these communities; on average, consumption per capita is 15 times higher than non-Indigenous country populations. These findings contribute to an urgently needed sense of scale to coastal Indigenous issues, and will hopefully prompt increased recognition and directed research regarding the marine knowledge and resource needs of Indigenous peoples. Marine resources are crucial to the continued existence of coastal Indigenous peoples, and their needs must be explicitly incorporated into management policies. PMID:27918581

  4. A Global Estimate of Seafood Consumption by Coastal Indigenous Peoples.

    PubMed

    Cisneros-Montemayor, Andrés M; Pauly, Daniel; Weatherdon, Lauren V; Ota, Yoshitaka

    2016-01-01

    Coastal Indigenous peoples rely on ocean resources and are highly vulnerable to ecosystem and economic change. Their challenges have been observed and recognized at local and regional scales, yet there are no global-scale analyses to inform international policies. We compile available data for over 1,900 coastal Indigenous communities around the world representing 27 million people across 87 countries. Based on available data at local and regional levels, we estimate a total global yearly seafood consumption of 2.1 million (1.5 million-2.8 million) metric tonnes by coastal Indigenous peoples, equal to around 2% of global yearly commercial fisheries catch. Results reflect the crucial role of seafood for these communities; on average, consumption per capita is 15 times higher than non-Indigenous country populations. These findings contribute to an urgently needed sense of scale to coastal Indigenous issues, and will hopefully prompt increased recognition and directed research regarding the marine knowledge and resource needs of Indigenous peoples. Marine resources are crucial to the continued existence of coastal Indigenous peoples, and their needs must be explicitly incorporated into management policies.

  5. Global Estimates of PBL Depth from Space-Borne LIDAR

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McGrath-Spangler, Erica lynn; Denning, S.; Molod, A.; Ott, L.

    2012-01-01

    The planetary boundary layer (PBL) is responsible for communicating the exchange of energy, moisture, momentum, pollutants, and aerosols between the surface and the free atmosphere and is therefore crucial to many studies of the atmosphere. Unfortunately, there have historically been few observations of this important layer due to the complexity involved in its measurement. However, with the advent of more advanced satellites, global measurements of the PBL are now becoming possible. The PBL is often characterized by a high concentration of aerosols within the layer and low level clouds capping it and these are observable from space. The Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) satellite was launched in 2006 with the intention of observing aerosols and clouds and was the first space-based LIDAR optimized for this purpose. CALIPSO observations are therefore well suited to observing the depth of the PBL. Since it was launched, CALIPSO has been making nearly continuous measurements enabling a global picture of PBL depth. We plan to present a global PBL depth product and how it evolves throughout the year. The product is able to identify deeper PBL depths in the summer hemisphere over land and deeper depths along the northern hemisphere oceanic storm tracks in winter associated with cold air traveling over warm water. Large seasonal cycles are also evident in the subtropical desert locations among other features. In addition, comparisons will be made between several estimates of PBL depth based on turbulent intensity, meteorology profiles, and aerosol profiles from the GEOS5 model.

  6. Global and regional emissions estimates for N2O

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saikawa, E.; Prinn, R. G.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Ishijima, K.; Dutton, G. S.; Hall, B. D.; Langenfelds, R.; Tohjima, Y.; Machida, T.; Manizza, M.; Rigby, M. L.; Odoherty, S. J.; Patra, P. K.; Harth, C.; Weiss, R. F.; Krummel, P. B.; van der Schoot, M.; Fraser, P.; Steele, P.; Aoki, S.; Nakazawa, T.; Elkins, J. W.

    2013-12-01

    We present a comprehensive estimate of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions using observations and models from 1995 to 2008. High-frequency records of tropospheric N2O are available from measurements at Cape Grim, Tasmania; Cape Matatula, American Samoa; Ragged Point, Barbados; Mace Head, Ireland; and at Trinidad Head, California using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) instrumentation and calibrations. The Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) has also discrete air samples collected in flasks and in situ measurements from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of species including N2O. In addition to these major networks, we include in situ and aircraft measurements from the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) and flask measurements from the Tohoku University and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) networks. All measurements show increasing atmospheric mole fractions of N2O, with a varying growth rate of 0.1-0.7%yr-1, resulting in a 7.4% increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction between 1979 and 2011. Using existing emission inventories as well as bottom-up process modeling results, we first create globally-gridded a priori N2O emissions over the 37 yr since 1975. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4), and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions for five source sectors from 13 regions in the world. This is the first time that all of these measurements from multiple networks have been combined to determine emissions. Our inversion indicates that global and regional N2O emissions have an increasing trend between 1995 and 2008. Despite large uncertainties, a significant increase is seen from the Asian agricultural sector in the recent years, most likely due

  7. Global and regional emissions estimates for N2O

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saikawa, E.; Prinn, R. G.; Dlugokencky, E.; Ishijima, K.; Dutton, G. S.; Hall, B. D.; Langenfelds, R.; Tohjima, Y.; Machida, T.; Manizza, M.; Rigby, M.; O'Doherty, S.; Patra, P. K.; Harth, C. M.; Weiss, R. F.; Krummel, P. B.; van der Schoot, M.; Fraser, P. J.; Steele, L. P.; Aoki, S.; Nakazawa, T.; Elkins, J. W.

    2014-05-01

    We present a comprehensive estimate of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions using observations and models from 1995 to 2008. High-frequency records of tropospheric N2O are available from measurements at Cape Grim, Tasmania; Cape Matatula, American Samoa; Ragged Point, Barbados; Mace Head, Ireland; and at Trinidad Head, California using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) instrumentation and calibrations. The Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) has also collected discrete air samples in flasks and in situ measurements from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of species including N2O. In addition to these major networks, we include in situ and aircraft measurements from the National Institute of Environmental Studies (NIES) and flask measurements from the Tohoku University and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) networks. All measurements show increasing atmospheric mole fractions of N2O, with a varying growth rate of 0.1-0.7% per year, resulting in a 7.4% increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction between 1979 and 2011. Using existing emission inventories as well as bottom-up process modeling results, we first create globally gridded a priori N2O emissions over the 37 years since 1975. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4), and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions for five source sectors from 13 regions in the world. This is the first time that all of these measurements from multiple networks have been combined to determine emissions. Our inversion indicates that global and regional N2O emissions have an increasing trend between 1995 and 2008. Despite large uncertainties, a significant increase is seen from the Asian agricultural sector in recent years, most likely

  8. Global and regional emissions estimates for N2O

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saikawa, E.; Prinn, R. G.; Dlugokencky, E.; Ishijima, K.; Dutton, G. S.; Hall, B. D.; Langenfelds, R.; Tohjima, Y.; Machida, T.; Manizza, M.; Rigby, M.; O'Doherty, S.; Patra, P. K.; Harth, C. M.; Weiss, R. F.; Krummel, P. B.; van der Schoot, M.; Fraser, P. B.; Steele, L. P.; Aoki, S.; Nakazawa, T.; Elkins, J. W.

    2013-07-01

    We present a comprehensive estimate of nitrous oxide ( N2O) emissions using observations and models from 1995 to 2008. High-frequency records of tropospheric N2O are available from measurements at Cape Grim, Tasmania; Cape Matatula, American Samoa; Ragged Point, Barbados; Mace Head, Ireland; and at Trinidad Head, California using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) instrumentation and calibrations. The Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) has also discrete air samples collected in flasks and in situ measurements from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of species including N2O. In addition to these major networks, we include in situ and aircraft measurements from the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) and flask measurements from the Tohoku University and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) networks. All measurements show increasing atmospheric mole fractions of N2O, with a varying growth rate of 0.1-0.7 % yr-1, resulting in a 7.4% increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction between 1979 and 2011. Using existing emission inventories as well as bottom-up process modeling results, we first create globally-gridded a priori N2O emissions over the 37 yr since 1975. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4), and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions for five source sectors from 13 regions in the world. This is the first time that all of these measurements from multiple networks have been combined to determine emissions. Our inversion indicates that global and regional N2O emissions have an increasing trend between 1995 and 2008. Despite large uncertainties, a significant increase is seen from the Asian agricultural sector in the recent years, most likely

  9. Estimating the Efficiency of Phosphopeptide Identification by Tandem Mass Spectrometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsu, Chuan-Chih; Xue, Liang; Arrington, Justine V.; Wang, Pengcheng; Paez Paez, Juan Sebastian; Zhou, Yuan; Zhu, Jian-Kang; Tao, W. Andy

    2017-03-01

    Mass spectrometry has played a significant role in the identification of unknown phosphoproteins and sites of phosphorylation in biological samples. Analyses of protein phosphorylation, particularly large scale phosphoproteomic experiments, have recently been enhanced by efficient enrichment, fast and accurate instrumentation, and better software, but challenges remain because of the low stoichiometry of phosphorylation and poor phosphopeptide ionization efficiency and fragmentation due to neutral loss. Phosphoproteomics has become an important dimension in systems biology studies, and it is essential to have efficient analytical tools to cover a broad range of signaling events. To evaluate current mass spectrometric performance, we present here a novel method to estimate the efficiency of phosphopeptide identification by tandem mass spectrometry. Phosphopeptides were directly isolated from whole plant cell extracts, dephosphorylated, and then incubated with one of three purified kinases—casein kinase II, mitogen-activated protein kinase 6, and SNF-related protein kinase 2.6—along with 16O4- and 18O4-ATP separately for in vitro kinase reactions. Phosphopeptides were enriched and analyzed by LC-MS. The phosphopeptide identification rate was estimated by comparing phosphopeptides identified by tandem mass spectrometry with phosphopeptide pairs generated by stable isotope labeled kinase reactions. Overall, we found that current high speed and high accuracy mass spectrometers can only identify 20%-40% of total phosphopeptides primarily due to relatively poor fragmentation, additional modifications, and low abundance, highlighting the urgent need for continuous efforts to improve phosphopeptide identification efficiency.

  10. Estimating the Efficiency of Phosphopeptide Identification by Tandem Mass Spectrometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsu, Chuan-Chih; Xue, Liang; Arrington, Justine V.; Wang, Pengcheng; Paez Paez, Juan Sebastian; Zhou, Yuan; Zhu, Jian-Kang; Tao, W. Andy

    2017-06-01

    Mass spectrometry has played a significant role in the identification of unknown phosphoproteins and sites of phosphorylation in biological samples. Analyses of protein phosphorylation, particularly large scale phosphoproteomic experiments, have recently been enhanced by efficient enrichment, fast and accurate instrumentation, and better software, but challenges remain because of the low stoichiometry of phosphorylation and poor phosphopeptide ionization efficiency and fragmentation due to neutral loss. Phosphoproteomics has become an important dimension in systems biology studies, and it is essential to have efficient analytical tools to cover a broad range of signaling events. To evaluate current mass spectrometric performance, we present here a novel method to estimate the efficiency of phosphopeptide identification by tandem mass spectrometry. Phosphopeptides were directly isolated from whole plant cell extracts, dephosphorylated, and then incubated with one of three purified kinases—casein kinase II, mitogen-activated protein kinase 6, and SNF-related protein kinase 2.6—along with 16O4- and 18O4-ATP separately for in vitro kinase reactions. Phosphopeptides were enriched and analyzed by LC-MS. The phosphopeptide identification rate was estimated by comparing phosphopeptides identified by tandem mass spectrometry with phosphopeptide pairs generated by stable isotope labeled kinase reactions. Overall, we found that current high speed and high accuracy mass spectrometers can only identify 20%-40% of total phosphopeptides primarily due to relatively poor fragmentation, additional modifications, and low abundance, highlighting the urgent need for continuous efforts to improve phosphopeptide identification efficiency. [Figure not available: see fulltext.

  11. Global coupled sea ice-ocean state estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fenty, Ian; Menemenlis, Dimitris; Zhang, Hong

    2017-08-01

    We study the impact of synthesizing ocean and sea ice concentration data with a global, eddying coupled sea ice-ocean configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model with the goal of reproducing the 2004 three-dimensional time-evolving ice-ocean state. This work builds on the state estimation framework developed in the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean consortium by seeking a reconstruction of the global sea ice-ocean system that is simultaneously consistent with (1) a suite of in situ and remotely-sensed ocean and ice data and (2) the physics encoded in the numerical model. This dual consistency is successfully achieved here by adjusting only the model's initial hydrographic state and its atmospheric boundary conditions such that misfits between the model and data are minimized in a least-squares sense. We show that synthesizing both ocean and sea ice concentration data is required for the model to adequately reproduce the observed details of the sea ice annual cycle in both hemispheres. Surprisingly, only modest adjustments to our first-guess atmospheric state and ocean initial conditions are necessary to achieve model-data consistency, suggesting that atmospheric reanalysis products remain a leading source of errors for sea ice-ocean model hindcasts and reanalyses. The synthesis of sea ice data is found to ameliorate misfits in the high latitude ocean, especially with respect to upper ocean stratification, temperature, and salinity. Constraining the model to sea ice concentration modestly reduces ICESat-derived Arctic ice thickness errors by improving the temporal and spatial evolution of seasonal ice. Further increases in the accuracy of global sea ice thickness in the model likely require the direct synthesis of sea ice thickness data.

  12. Global coupled sea ice-ocean state estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fenty, Ian; Menemenlis, Dimitris; Zhang, Hong

    2015-09-01

    We study the impact of synthesizing ocean and sea ice concentration data with a global, eddying coupled sea ice-ocean configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model with the goal of reproducing the 2004 three-dimensional time-evolving ice-ocean state. This work builds on the state estimation framework developed in the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean consortium by seeking a reconstruction of the global sea ice-ocean system that is simultaneously consistent with (1) a suite of in situ and remotely-sensed ocean and ice data and (2) the physics encoded in the numerical model. This dual consistency is successfully achieved here by adjusting only the model's initial hydrographic state and its atmospheric boundary conditions such that misfits between the model and data are minimized in a least-squares sense. We show that synthesizing both ocean and sea ice concentration data is required for the model to adequately reproduce the observed details of the sea ice annual cycle in both hemispheres. Surprisingly, only modest adjustments to our first-guess atmospheric state and ocean initial conditions are necessary to achieve model-data consistency, suggesting that atmospheric reanalysis products remain a leading source of errors for sea ice-ocean model hindcasts and reanalyses. The synthesis of sea ice data is found to ameliorate misfits in the high latitude ocean, especially with respect to upper ocean stratification, temperature, and salinity. Constraining the model to sea ice concentration modestly reduces ICESat-derived Arctic ice thickness errors by improving the temporal and spatial evolution of seasonal ice. Further increases in the accuracy of global sea ice thickness in the model likely require the direct synthesis of sea ice thickness data.

  13. Greenland and Antarctica Ice Sheet Mass Changes and Effects on Global Sea Level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forsberg, Rene; Sørensen, Louise; Simonsen, Sebastian

    2017-01-01

    Thirteen years of GRACE data provide an excellent picture of the current mass changes of Greenland and Antarctica, with mass loss in the GRACE period 2002-2015 amounting to 265 ± 25 GT/year for Greenland (including peripheral ice caps), and 95 ± 50 GT/year for Antarctica, corresponding to 0.72 and 0.26 mm/year average global sea level change. A significant acceleration in mass loss rate is found, especially for Antarctica, while Greenland mass loss, after a corresponding acceleration period, and a record mass loss in the summer of 2012, has seen a slight decrease in short-term mass loss trend. The yearly mass balance estimates, based on point mass inversion methods, have relatively large errors, both due to uncertainties in the glacial isostatic adjustment processes, especially for Antarctica, leakage from unmodelled ocean mass changes, and (for Greenland) difficulties in separating mass signals from the Greenland ice sheet and the adjacent Canadian ice caps. The limited resolution of GRACE affects the uncertainty of total mass loss to a smaller degree; we illustrate the "real" sources of mass changes by including satellite altimetry elevation change results in a joint inversion with GRACE, showing that mass change occurs primarily associated with major outlet glaciers, as well as a narrow coastal band. For Antarctica, the primary changes are associated with the major outlet glaciers in West Antarctica (Pine Island and Thwaites Glacier systems), as well as on the Antarctic Peninsula, where major glacier accelerations have been observed after the 2002 collapse of the Larsen B Ice Shelf.

  14. Quality control and estimation of global solar radiation in China

    SciTech Connect

    Tang, Wenjun; He, Jie; Yang, Kun; Qin, Jun

    2010-03-15

    Measurements of surface radiation in China are too sparse to meet demand for scientific research and engineering applications. Moreover, the radiation data often include erroneous and questionable values though preliminary quality-check has been done before the data release. Therefore, quality control of radiation data is often a prerequisite for using these data. In this study, a set of quality-check procedures were implemented to control the quality of the solar radiation measurements at 97 stations in China. A hybrid model for estimating global solar radiation was then evaluated against the controlled data. The results show that the model can estimate the global radiation with accuracy of MBE less than 1.5 MJ m{sup -2} and RMSE less than 2.8 MJ m{sup -2} for daily radiation and RMSE less than 2.0 MJ m{sup -2} for monthly-mean daily radiation at individual stations over most of China except at a few stations where unsatisfactory estimates were possibly caused by severe air pollution or too dense clouds. The MBE averaged over all stations are about 0.7 MJ m{sup -2} and RMSE about 2.0 MJ m{sup -2} for daily radiation and RMSE about 1.3 MJ m{sup -2} for monthly-mean daily radiation. Finally, this model was used to fill data gaps and to expand solar radiation data set using routine meteorological station data in China. This data set would substantially contribute to some radiation-related scientific studies and engineering applications in China. (author)

  15. Estimated global incidence of Japanese encephalitis: a systematic review

    PubMed Central

    Campbell, Grant L; Hills, Susan L; Fischer, Marc; Jacobson, Julie A; Hoke, Charles H; Hombach, Joachim M; Marfin, Anthony A; Solomon, Tom; Tsai, Theodore F; Tsu, Vivien D

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Objective To update the estimated global incidence of Japanese encephalitis (JE) using recent data for the purpose of guiding prevention and control efforts. Methods Thirty-two areas endemic for JE in 24 Asian and Western Pacific countries were sorted into 10 incidence groups on the basis of published data and expert opinion. Population-based surveillance studies using laboratory-confirmed cases were sought for each incidence group by a computerized search of the scientific literature. When no eligible studies existed for a particular incidence group, incidence data were extrapolated from related groups. Findings A total of 12 eligible studies representing 7 of 10 incidence groups in 24 JE-endemic countries were identified. Approximately 67 900 JE cases typically occur annually (overall incidence: 1.8 per 100 000), of which only about 10% are reported to the World Health Organization. Approximately 33 900 (50%) of these cases occur in China (excluding Taiwan) and approximately 51 000 (75%) occur in children aged 0–14 years (incidence: 5.4 per 100 000). Approximately 55 000 (81%) cases occur in areas with well established or developing JE vaccination programmes, while approximately 12 900 (19%) occur in areas with minimal or no JE vaccination programmes. Conclusion Recent data allowed us to refine the estimate of the global incidence of JE, which remains substantial despite improvements in vaccination coverage. More and better incidence studies in selected countries, particularly China and India, are needed to further refine these estimates. PMID:22084515

  16. Global estimates of evapotranspiration and gross primary production based on MODIS and global meteorology data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yuan, W.; Liu, S.; Yu, G.; Bonnefond, J.-M.; Chen, J.; Davis, K.; Desai, A.R.; Goldstein, Allen H.; Gianelle, D.; Rossi, F.; Suyker, A.E.; Verma, S.B.

    2010-01-01

    The simulation of gross primary production (GPP) at various spatial and temporal scales remains a major challenge for quantifying the global carbon cycle. We developed a light use efficiency model, called EC-LUE, driven by only four variables: normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), air temperature, and the Bowen ratio of sensible to latent heat flux. The EC-LUE model may have the most potential to adequately address the spatial and temporal dynamics of GPP because its parameters (i.e., the potential light use efficiency and optimal plant growth temperature) are invariant across the various land cover types. However, the application of the previous EC-LUE model was hampered by poor prediction of Bowen ratio at the large spatial scale. In this study, we substituted the Bowen ratio with the ratio of evapotranspiration (ET) to net radiation, and revised the RS-PM (Remote Sensing-Penman Monteith) model for quantifying ET. Fifty-four eddy covariance towers, including various ecosystem types, were selected to calibrate and validate the revised RS-PM and EC-LUE models. The revised RS-PM model explained 82% and 68% of the observed variations of ET for all the calibration and validation sites, respectively. Using estimated ET as input, the EC-LUE model performed well in calibration and validation sites, explaining 75% and 61% of the observed GPP variation for calibration and validation sites respectively.Global patterns of ET and GPP at a spatial resolution of 0.5° latitude by 0.6° longitude during the years 2000–2003 were determined using the global MERRA dataset (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). The global estimates of ET and GPP agreed well with the other global models from the literature, with the highest ET and GPP over tropical forests and the lowest values in dry and high latitude areas. However, comparisons with observed

  17. Bayesian Mass Estimates of the Milky Way: Inferring the Mass Profile from Globular Cluster Kinematics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eadie, Gwendolyn; Harris, William E.; Springford, Aaron; Widrow, Larry

    2017-01-01

    The mass and cumulative mass profile of the Milky Way's dark matter halo is a fundamental property of the Galaxy, and yet these quantities remain poorly constrained and span almost two orders of magnitude in the literature. There are a variety of methods to measure the mass of the Milky Way, and a common way to constrain the mass uses kinematic information of satellite objects (e.g. globular clusters) orbiting the Galaxy. One reason precise estimates of the mass and mass profile remain elusive is that the kinematic data of the globular clusters are incomplete; for some both line-of-sight and proper motion measurements are available (i.e. complete data), and for others there are only line-of-sight velocities (i.e. incomplete data). Furthermore, some proper motion measurements suffer from large measurement uncertainties, and these uncertainties can be difficult to take into account because they propagate in complicated ways. Past methods have dealt with incomplete data by using either only the line-of-sight measurements (and throwing away the proper motions), or only using the complete data. In either case, valuable information is not included in the analysis. During my PhD research, I have been developing a coherent hierarchical Bayesian method to estimate the mass and mass profile of the Galaxy that 1) includes both complete and incomplete kinematic data simultaneously in the analysis, and 2) includes measurement uncertainties in a meaningful way. In this presentation, I will introduce our approach in a way that is accessible and clear, and will also present our estimates of the Milky Way's total mass and mass profile using all available kinematic data from the globular cluster population of the Galaxy.

  18. Remote Sensing of Cryosphere: Estimation of Mass Balance Change in Himalayan Glaciers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ambinakudige, Shrinidhi; Joshi, Kabindra

    2012-07-01

    Glacial changes are an important indicator of climate change. Our understanding mass balance change in Himalayan glaciers is limited. This study estimates mass balance of some major glaciers in the Sagarmatha National Park (SNP) in Nepal using remote sensing applications. Remote sensing technique to measure mass balance of glaciers is an important methodological advance in the highly rugged Himalayan terrain. This study uses ASTER VNIR, 3N (nadir view) and 3B (backward view) bands to generate Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) for the SNP area for the years 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005. Glacier boundaries were delineated using combination of boundaries available in the Global land ice measurement (GLIMS) database and various band ratios derived from ASTER images. Elevation differences, glacial area, and ice densities were used to estimate the change in mass balance. The results indicated that the rate of glacier mass balance change was not uniform across glaciers. While there was a decrease in mass balance of some glaciers, some showed increase. This paper discusses how each glacier in the SNP area varied in its annual mass balance measurement during the study period.

  19. Predicting global community properties from uncertain estimates of interaction strengths

    PubMed Central

    Barabás, György; Allesina, Stefano

    2015-01-01

    The community matrix measures the direct effect of species on each other in an ecological community. It can be used to determine whether a system is stable (returns to equilibrium after small perturbations of the population abundances), reactive (perturbations are initially amplified before damping out), and to determine the response of any individual species to perturbations of environmental parameters. However, several studies show that small errors in estimating the entries of the community matrix translate into large errors in predicting individual species responses. Here, we ask whether there are properties of complex communities one can still predict using only a crude, order-of-magnitude estimate of the community matrix entries. Using empirical data, randomly generated community matrices, and those generated by the Allometric Trophic Network model, we show that the stability and reactivity properties of systems can be predicted with good accuracy. We also provide theoretical insight into when and why our crude approximations are expected to yield an accurate description of communities. Our results indicate that even rough estimates of interaction strengths can be useful for assessing global properties of large systems. PMID:26246417

  20. Satellite Based Modeling Estimates of Global Ecosystem Respiration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ai, J.; Jia, G.; Wang, H.; Zhang, A.

    2016-12-01

    Recent evidence suggests that terrestrial ecosystems provide positive feedback in a warming world at global scale, but the magnitude is of great uncertainties, and the biggest part of the uncertainties resides in the ecosystem respiration (Re). To achieve real-time estimates of the spatio-temporal Re variability, satellite remote sensing is often considered as a powerful tool. However, since satellite technique is incapable of observing the key processes associated with soil respiration, Re is rarely quantified from remote sensing data.While Jägermeyr (2014) proposed RECO - a continental respiration model based solely on remote sensing indices EVI and LST, its performance [R2=0.62, RMSE=1.32 (gCm-2d-1)] still needs improvement. Gao (2015) proposed ReRSM - a more mechanism-illuminating model based only on EVI, LSWI and LST, but found difficult to scale up the model to region scale due to lack of sufficient flux data and too many in-built parameters. Still, the ReRSM has room to improve the performance of Re quantification at regional scale because of its mechanism of plant physiology. Given this, we have used the flux data from Fluxdata.org website (http://www.fluxdata.org/) to improve the ReRSM, and have develop a model that is simpler and yet more accurate - ReRSM_IMP. Compared with RECO and ReRSM, ReRSM_IMP has a better performance in respiration modelling at all the 147 flux sites (a total of 635 site_year) around the world with R2=0.88, RMSE=0.97(gCm-2d-1). But right now, ReRSM_IMP is not truly a global model because one of its input variables is site-observed GPP, so next we are planning to replace the site-observed GPP with MOD17A2 GPP product or other kind of remote sensing GPP products to capture spatial heterogeneity at global scale. When finished, the model could provide a real-time, cross-validated, and better estimates of global Re, and will thus advance our knowledge on spatio-temporal Re variability.

  1. Global constraints on absolute neutrino masses and their ordering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Capozzi, Francesco; Di Valentino, Eleonora; Lisi, Eligio; Marrone, Antonio; Melchiorri, Alessandro; Palazzo, Antonio

    2017-05-01

    Within the standard three-neutrino framework, the absolute neutrino masses and their ordering (either normal, NO, or inverted, IO) are currently unknown. However, the combination of current data coming from oscillation experiments, neutrinoless double beta (0 ν β β ) decay searches, and cosmological surveys, can provide interesting constraints for such unknowns in the sub-eV mass range, down to O (10-1) eV in some cases. We discuss current limits on absolute neutrino mass observables by performing a global data analysis that includes the latest results from oscillation experiments, 0 ν β β decay bounds from the KamLAND-Zen experiment, and constraints from representative combinations of Planck measurements and other cosmological data sets. In general, NO appears to be somewhat favored with respect to IO at the level of ˜2 σ , mainly by neutrino oscillation data (especially atmospheric), corroborated by cosmological data in some cases. Detailed constraints are obtained via the χ2 method, by expanding the parameter space either around separate minima in NO and IO or around the absolute minimum in any ordering. Implications for upcoming oscillation and nonoscillation neutrino experiments, including β -decay searches, are also discussed.

  2. Global Energetics of Solar Flares. IV. Coronal Mass Ejection Energetics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aschwanden, Markus J.

    2016-11-01

    This study entails the fourth part of a global flare energetics project, in which the mass m cme, kinetic energy E kin, and the gravitational potential energy E grav of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is measured in 399 M and X-class flare events observed during the first 3.5 years of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission, using a new method based on the EUV dimming effect. EUV dimming is modeled in terms of a radial adiabatic expansion process, which is fitted to the observed evolution of the total emission measure of the CME source region. The model derives the evolution of the mean electron density, the emission measure, the bulk plasma expansion velocity, the mass, and the energy in the CME source region. The EUV dimming method is truly complementary to the Thomson scattering method in white light, which probes the CME evolution in the heliosphere at r ≳ 2 R ⊙, while the EUV dimming method tracks the CME launch in the corona. We compare the CME parameters obtained in white light with the LASCO/C2 coronagraph with those obtained from EUV dimming with the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly onboard the SDO for all identical events in both data sets. We investigate correlations between CME parameters, the relative timing with flare parameters, frequency occurrence distributions, and the energy partition between magnetic, thermal, nonthermal, and CME energies. CME energies are found to be systematically lower than the dissipated magnetic energies, which is consistent with a magnetic origin of CMEs.

  3. An Iterated Global Mascon Solution with Focus on Land Ice Mass Evolution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Luthcke, S. B.; Sabaka, T.; Rowlands, D. D.; Lemoine, F. G.; Loomis, B. D.; Boy, J. P.

    2012-01-01

    Land ice mass evolution is determined from a new GRACE global mascon solution. The solution is estimated directly from the reduction of the inter-satellite K-band range rate observations taking into account the full noise covariance, and formally iterating the solution. The new solution increases signal recovery while reducing the GRACE KBRR observation residuals. The mascons are estimated with 10-day and 1-arc-degree equal area sampling, applying anisotropic constraints for enhanced temporal and spatial resolution of the recovered land ice signal. The details of the solution are presented including error and resolution analysis. An Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) adaptive filter is applied to the mascon solution time series to compute timing of balance seasons and annual mass balances. The details and causes of the spatial and temporal variability of the land ice regions studied are discussed.

  4. [Automatic Measurement of the Stellar Atmospheric Parameters Based Mass Estimation].

    PubMed

    Tu, Liang-ping; Wei, Hui-ming; Luo, A-li; Zhao, Yong-heng

    2015-11-01

    We have collected massive stellar spectral data in recent years, which leads to the research on the automatic measurement of stellar atmospheric physical parameters (effective temperature Teff, surface gravity log g and metallic abundance [Fe/ H]) become an important issue. To study the automatic measurement of these three parameters has important significance for some scientific problems, such as the evolution of the universe and so on. But the research of this problem is not very widely, some of the current methods are not able to estimate the values of the stellar atmospheric physical parameters completely and accurately. So in this paper, an automatic method to predict stellar atmospheric parameters based on mass estimation was presented, which can achieve the prediction of stellar effective temperature Teff, surface gravity log g and metallic abundance [Fe/H]. This method has small amount of computation and fast training speed. The main idea of this method is that firstly it need us to build some mass distributions, secondly the original spectral data was mapped into the mass space and then to predict the stellar parameter with the support vector regression (SVR) in the mass space. we choose the stellar spectral data from the United States SDSS-DR8 for the training and testing. We also compared the predicted results of this method with the SSPP and achieve higher accuracy. The predicted results are more stable and the experimental results show that the method is feasible and can predict the stellar atmospheric physical parameters effectively.

  5. Estimating Sediment Mass Fluxes on Surfaces Sheltered by Live Vegetation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walter, Benjamin; Voegeli, Christian; Horender, Stefan

    2017-05-01

    We present a simple model based on already existing and widely used equations for estimating particle mass fluxes on surfaces sheltered by live vegetation. Wind-tunnel measurements of vertical profiles of mass flux in three different dense live plant canopies, and as a function of the spatially averaged skin friction velocity {u_{τ }}', provide the baseline set of data. For the bare-sand surface, the total mass flux Q shows the typical b({u_τ }' - {u_{τ t}}')^{3 } increase with increasing skin friction velocity {u_{τ }}', where b is a constant and {u_{τ t}}' is the threshold at the onset of particle erosion. Similar relations, however, with different values for b and {u_{τ t}}' compared to the bare-sand surface were found for experiments with 5.25 and 24.5 plants m^{-2} and can be explained by the spatial variations of u_{τ } for the canopy cases. Based on the resulting parameters b and {u_{τ t}}', which are found to be functions of the roughness density λ , we present a final simple relation Q(λ , {u_{τ }}') used for estimating the total mass flux for surfaces sheltered by live vegetation.

  6. Estimating Sediment Mass Fluxes on Surfaces Sheltered by Live Vegetation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walter, Benjamin; Voegeli, Christian; Horender, Stefan

    2016-12-01

    We present a simple model based on already existing and widely used equations for estimating particle mass fluxes on surfaces sheltered by live vegetation. Wind-tunnel measurements of vertical profiles of mass flux in three different dense live plant canopies, and as a function of the spatially averaged skin friction velocity {u_{τ }}' , provide the baseline set of data. For the bare-sand surface, the total mass flux Q shows the typical b({u_τ }' - {u_{τ t}}')^{3 } increase with increasing skin friction velocity {u_{τ }}' , where b is a constant and {u_{τ t}}' is the threshold at the onset of particle erosion. Similar relations, however, with different values for b and {u_{τ t}}' compared to the bare-sand surface were found for experiments with 5.25 and 24.5 plants m^{-2} and can be explained by the spatial variations of u_{τ } for the canopy cases. Based on the resulting parameters b and {u_{τ t}}' , which are found to be functions of the roughness density λ , we present a final simple relation Q(λ , {u_{τ }}') used for estimating the total mass flux for surfaces sheltered by live vegetation.

  7. Anthropic estimates of the charge and mass of the proton

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Page, Don N.

    2009-05-01

    By combining a renormalization group argument relating the charge e and mass m of the proton by elnm≈-0.1π (in Planck units) with the Carter-Carr-Rees anthropic argument that gives an independent approximate relation m˜e between these two constants, both can be crudely estimated. These equations have the factor of 0.1π and the exponent of 20 which depend upon known discrete parameters (e.g., the number of generations of quarks and leptons, and the number of spatial dimensions), but they contain no continuous observed parameters. Their solution gives the charge of the proton correct to within about 8%, though the mass estimate is off by a factor of about 1000 (16% error on a logarithmic scale). When one adds a fudge factor of 10 previously given by Carr and Rees, the agreement for the charge is within about 2%, and the mass is off by a factor of about 3 (2.4% error on a logarithmic scale). If this 10 were replaced by 15, the charge agrees within 1.1% and the mass itself agrees within 0.7%.

  8. Global fire emissions estimates during 1997-2016

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Werf, Guido R.; Randerson, James T.; Giglio, Louis; van Leeuwen, Thijs T.; Chen, Yang; Rogers, Brendan M.; Mu, Mingquan; van Marle, Margreet J. E.; Morton, Douglas C.; Collatz, G. James; Yokelson, Robert J.; Kasibhatla, Prasad S.

    2017-09-01

    Climate, land use, and other anthropogenic and natural drivers have the potential to influence fire dynamics in many regions. To develop a mechanistic understanding of the changing role of these drivers and their impact on atmospheric composition, long-term fire records are needed that fuse information from different satellite and in situ data streams. Here we describe the fourth version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) and quantify global fire emissions patterns during 1997-2016. The modeling system, based on the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) biogeochemical model, has several modifications from the previous version and uses higher quality input datasets. Significant upgrades include (1) new burned area estimates with contributions from small fires, (2) a revised fuel consumption parameterization optimized using field observations, (3) modifications that improve the representation of fuel consumption in frequently burning landscapes, and (4) fire severity estimates that better represent continental differences in burning processes across boreal regions of North America and Eurasia. The new version has a higher spatial resolution (0.25°) and uses a different set of emission factors that separately resolves trace gas and aerosol emissions from temperate and boreal forest ecosystems. Global mean carbon emissions using the burned area dataset with small fires (GFED4s) were 2.2 × 1015 grams of carbon per year (Pg C yr-1) during 1997-2016, with a maximum in 1997 (3.0 Pg C yr-1) and minimum in 2013 (1.8 Pg C yr-1). These estimates were 11 % higher than our previous estimates (GFED3) during 1997-2011, when the two datasets overlapped. This net increase was the result of a substantial increase in burned area (37 %), mostly due to the inclusion of small fires, and a modest decrease in mean fuel consumption (-19 %) to better match estimates from field studies, primarily in savannas and grasslands. For trace gas and aerosol emissions, differences between

  9. Estimation of left ventricular mass in conscious dogs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Coleman, Bernell; Cothran, Laval N.; Ison-Franklin, E. L.; Hawthorne, E. W.

    1986-01-01

    A method for the assessment of the development or the regression of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) in a conscious instrumented animal is described. First, the single-slice short-axis area-length method for estimating the left-ventricular mass (LVM) and volume (LVV) was validated in 24 formaldehyde-fixed canine hearts, and a regression equation was developed that could be used in the intact animal to correct the sonomicrometrically estimated LVM. The LVM-assessment method, which uses the combined techniques of echocardiography and sonomicrometry (in conjunction with the regression equation), was shown to provide reliable and reproducible day-to-day estimates of LVM and LVV, and to be sensitive enough to detect serial changes during the development of LVH.

  10. Thunderstorm vertical velocities and mass flux estimated from satellite data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adler, R. F.; Fenn, D. D.

    1979-01-01

    Infrared geosynchronous satellite data with an interval of five minutes between images are used to estimate thunderstorm top ascent rates on two case study days. A mean vertical velocity of 3.5/ms for 19 clouds is calculated at a height of 8.7 km. This upward motion is representative of an area of approximately 10km on a side. Thunderstorm mass flux of approximately 2x10 to the 11th power/gs is calculated, which compares favorably with previous estimates. There is a significant difference in the mean calculated vertical velocity between elements associated with severe weather reports (w bar=4.6/ms) and those with no such reports (2.5/ms). Calculations were made using a velocity profile for an axially symmetric jet to estimate the peak updraft velocity. For the largest observed w value of 7.8/ms the calculation indicates a peak updraft of approximately 50/ms.

  11. Estimation of left ventricular mass in conscious dogs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Coleman, Bernell; Cothran, Laval N.; Ison-Franklin, E. L.; Hawthorne, E. W.

    1986-01-01

    A method for the assessment of the development or the regression of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) in a conscious instrumented animal is described. First, the single-slice short-axis area-length method for estimating the left-ventricular mass (LVM) and volume (LVV) was validated in 24 formaldehyde-fixed canine hearts, and a regression equation was developed that could be used in the intact animal to correct the sonomicrometrically estimated LVM. The LVM-assessment method, which uses the combined techniques of echocardiography and sonomicrometry (in conjunction with the regression equation), was shown to provide reliable and reproducible day-to-day estimates of LVM and LVV, and to be sensitive enough to detect serial changes during the development of LVH.

  12. Estimations of global no, emissions and their uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, D. S.; Köhler, I.; Grobler, E.; Rohrer, F.; Sausen, R.; Gallardo-Klenner, L.; Olivier, J. G. J.; Dentener, F. J.; Bouwman, A. F.

    The AERONOX programme investigated the impact of NO x emissions from aircraft on the atmosphere and included an extensive modelling programme. In the model comparisons undertaken within the AERONOX programme, a "standard" set of emissions of NO x from both aviation and non-aviation sources was required so that differences between the models could be examined. This paper describes the data sets used in the study. These were: fossil fuel combustion from stationary and mobile sources at Earth's surface (22 Tg N yr -1), tropical biomass burning (5 Tg N yr -1), soil microbial production of NO (4 Tg N yr -1), lightning (5 Tg N yr -1), and the stratospheric decomposition of nitrous oxide (0.6 Tg N yr -1), ). However, global emission inventories of trace gases are developing rapidly: this paper also presents some emission estimates updated since the AERONOX study and also attempts to quantify uncertainties. The lightning source was constructed using convective cloud-top height from a GCM and differential rates of NO production calculated for cloud-to-cloud, and cloud-to-ground strikes. A revised biomass inventory including deforestation, savanna burning, agricultural waste burning and biofuel combustion results in approximately 8 Tg Nyr -1. This estimate includes sources beyond the tropics. Both extrapolation of measurements of soil NO fluxes by biome type, and a further refinement of the AERONOX soils emission model resulted in an emission of approximately 7 Tg Nyr -1. Ammonia oxidation as a source of NO x is calculated to be 0.9 N Tg yr -1), with a range of 0-l.6 Tg N yr -1), which shows that this is a relatively unimportant source of NO x in the troposphere. Uncertainty estimates for all sources have been given and discussed. The global source term for NO x for all sources (including the revisions) is estimated to be 44 Tg N yr -1), with an uncertainty range of 23-81 Tg N yr -1), A future scenario for fossil fuel combustion is given for 2025 resulting in an emission

  13. Centennial increase in geomagnetic activity: Latitudinal differences and global estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mursula, K.; Martini, D.

    2006-08-01

    We study here the centennial change in geomagnetic activity using the newly proposed Inter-Hour Variability (IHV) index. We correct the earlier estimates of the centennial increase by taking into account the effect of the change of the sampling of the magnetic field from one sample per hour to hourly means in the first years of the previous century. Since the IHV index is a variability index, the larger variability in the case of hourly sampling leads, without due correction, to excessively large values in the beginning of the century and an underestimated centennial increase. We discuss two ways to extract the necessary sampling calibration factors and show that they agree very well with each other. The effect of calibration is especially large at the midlatitude Cheltenham/Fredricksburg (CLH/FRD) station where the centennial increase changes from only 6% to 24% caused by calibration. Sampling calibration also leads to a larger centennial increase of global geomagnetic activity based on the IHV index. The results verify a significant centennial increase in global geomagnetic activity, in a qualitative agreement with the aa index, although a quantitative comparison is not warranted. We also find that the centennial increase has a rather strong and curious latitudinal dependence. It is largest at high latitudes. Quite unexpectedly, it is larger at low latitudes than at midlatitudes. These new findings indicate interesting long-term changes in near-Earth space. We also discuss possible internal and external causes for these observed differences. The centennial change of geomagnetic activity may be partly affected by changes in external conditions, partly by the secular decrease of the Earth's magnetic moment whose effect in near-Earth space may be larger than estimated so far.

  14. Statistical estimates to emulate yields from global gridded crop models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blanc, Elodie

    2016-04-01

    This study provides a statistical emulator of crop yields based on global gridded crop model simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Fast Track project. The ensemble of simulations is used to build a panel of annual crop yields from five crop models and corresponding monthly weather variables for over a century at the grid cell level. This dataset is then used to estimate, for each crop and gridded crop model, the statistical relationship between yields and temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide. This study considers a new functional form to better capture the non-linear response of yields to weather, especially for extreme temperature and precipitation events. In- and out-of-sample validations show that the statistical models are able to closely replicate crop yields projected by the crop models and perform well out-of-sample. This study therefore provides a reliable and accessible alternative to global gridded crop yield models. By emulating crop yields for several models using parsimonious equations, the tools will be useful for climate change impact assessments and to account for uncertainty in crop modeling.

  15. An ALMA Dynamical Mass Estimate of the Proposed Planetary-mass Companion FW Tau C

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Ya-Lin; Sheehan, Patrick D.

    2017-09-01

    Dynamical mass estimates down to the planet-mass regime can help to understand planet formation. We present Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) 1.3 mm observations of FW Tau C, a proposed ∼10 M Jup planet-mass companion at ∼330 au from the host binary FW Tau AB. We spatially and spectrally resolve the accretion disk of FW Tau C in 12CO (2–1). By modeling the Keplerian rotation of gas, we derive a dynamical mass of ∼0.1 M ⊙. Therefore, FW Tau C is unlikely a planet, but rather a low-mass star with a highly inclined disk. This also suggests that FW Tau is a triple system consisting of three ∼0.1 M ⊙ stars.

  16. SDSS IV MaNGA: the global and local stellar mass assemby histories of galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ibarra-Medel, Héctor J.; Sánchez, Sebastián F.; Avila-Reese, Vladimir; Hernández-Toledo, Héctor M.; González, J. Jesús; Drory, Niv; Bundy, Kevin; Bizyaev, Dmitry; Cano-Díaz, Mariana; Malanushenko, Elena; Pan, Kaike; Roman-Lopes, Alexandre; Thomas, Daniel

    2016-12-01

    Using the fossil record method implemented through Pipe3D, we reconstruct the global and radial stellar mass growth histories (MGHs) of a large sample of galaxies, ranging from dwarf to giant objects, from the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at the Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey. We confirm that the main driver of the global MGHs is mass, with more massive galaxies assembling earlier (downsizing), though for a given mass, the global MGHs segregate by colour, specific star formation rate and morphological type. From the inferred radial mean MGHs, we find that at fractions of assembled mass larger than ˜80 per cent, the innermost regions formed stars, on average, in the inside-out mode. At earlier epochs, when the age estimation of the method becomes poor, the MGHs seem to be spatially homogeneous or even in the outside-in mode, especially for the red/quiescent/early-type galaxies. The innermost MGHs are, in general, less scattered around the mean than the outermost MGHs. For dwarf and low-mass galaxies, we do not find evidence of an outside-in formation mode; instead, their radial MGHs are very diverse most of the time, with periods of outside-in and inside-out modes (or strong radial migration), suggesting this is an episodic star formation history. Blue/star-forming/late-type galaxies present, on average, a significantly more pronounced inside-out formation mode than red/quiescent/early-type galaxies, independently of mass. We discuss our results in the light of the processes of galaxy formation, quenching and radial migration. We also discuss the uncertainties and biases of the fossil record method and how these could affect our results.

  17. TOPEX/POSEIDON tides estimated using a global inverse model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Egbert, Gary D.; Bennett, Andrew F.; Foreman, Michael G. G.

    1994-01-01

    Altimetric data from the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission will be used for studies of global ocean circulation and marine geophysics. However, it is first necessary to remove the ocean tides, which are aliased in the raw data. The tides are constrained by the two distinct types of information: the hydrodynamic equations which the tidal fields of elevations and velocities must satisfy, and direct observational data from tide gauges and satellite altimetry. Here we develop and apply a generalized inverse method, which allows us to combine rationally all of this information into global tidal fields best fitting both the data and the dynamics, in a least squares sense. The resulting inverse solution is a sum of the direct solution to the astronomically forced Laplace tidal equations and a linear combination of the representers for the data functionals. The representer functions (one for each datum) are determined by the dynamical equations, and by our prior estimates of the statistics or errors in these equations. Our major task is a direct numerical calculation of these representers. This task is computationally intensive, but well suited to massively parallel processing. By calculating the representers we reduce the full (infinite dimensional) problem to a relatively low-dimensional problem at the outset, allowing full control over the conditioning and hence the stability of the inverse solution. With the representers calculated we can easily update our model as additional TOPEX/POSEIDON data become available. As an initial illustration we invert harmonic constants from a set of 80 open-ocean tide gauges. We then present a practical scheme for direct inversion of TOPEX/POSEIDON crossover data. We apply this method to 38 cycles of geophysical data records (GDR) data, computing preliminary global estimates of the four principal tidal constituents, M(sub 2), S(sub 2), K(sub 1) and O(sub 1). The inverse solution yields tidal fields which are simultaneously smoother, and in better

  18. First Global Estimates of Anthropogenic Shortwave Forcing by Methane

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collins, William; Feldman, Daniel; Kuo, Chaincy

    2017-04-01

    Although the primary well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) absorb both shortwave and longwave radiation, to date assessments of the effects from human-induced increases in atmospheric concentrations of WMGHGs have focused almost exclusively on quantifying the longwave radiative forcing of these gases. However, earlier studies have shown that the shortwave effects of WMGHGs are comparable to many less important longwave forcing agents routinely in these assessments, for example the effects of aircraft contrails, stratospheric anthropogenic methane, and stratospheric water vapor from the oxidation of this methane. These earlier studies include the Radiative Transfer Model Intercomparison Project (RTMIP; Collins et al. 2006) conducted using line-by-line radiative transfer codes as well as the radiative parameterizations from most of the global climate models (GCMs) assembled for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-3). In this talk, we discuss the first global estimates of the shortwave radiative forcing by methane due to the anthropogenic increase in CH4 between pre-industrial and present-day conditions. This forcing is a balance between reduced heating due to absorption of downwelling sunlight in the stratosphere and increased heating due to absorption of upwelling sunlight reflected from the surface as well clouds and aerosols in the troposphere. These estimates are produced using the Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) framework we have developed for NASA's upcoming Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission. The OSSE is designed to compute the monthly mean shortwave radiative forcing based upon global gridded atmospheric and surface conditions extracted from either the meteorological reanalyses collected for the Analysis for MIPs (Ana4MIPs) or the CMIP-5 multi-GCM archive analyzed in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR-5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The OSSE combines these atmospheric

  19. Leishmaniasis Worldwide and Global Estimates of Its Incidence

    PubMed Central

    Vélez, Iván D.; Bern, Caryn; Herrero, Mercé; Desjeux, Philippe; Cano, Jorge; Jannin, Jean

    2012-01-01

    As part of a World Health Organization-led effort to update the empirical evidence base for the leishmaniases, national experts provided leishmaniasis case data for the last 5 years and information regarding treatment and control in their respective countries and a comprehensive literature review was conducted covering publications on leishmaniasis in 98 countries and three territories (see ‘Leishmaniasis Country Profiles Text S1, S2, S3, S4, S5, S6, S7, S8, S9, S10, S11, S12, S13, S14, S15, S16, S17, S18, S19, S20, S21, S22, S23, S24, S25, S26, S27, S28, S29, S30, S31, S32, S33, S34, S35, S36, S37, S38, S39, S40, S41, S42, S43, S44, S45, S46, S47, S48, S49, S50, S51, S52, S53, S54, S55, S56, S57, S58, S59, S60, S61, S62, S63, S64, S65, S66, S67, S68, S69, S70, S71, S72, S73, S74, S75, S76, S77, S78, S79, S80, S81, S82, S83, S84, S85, S86, S87, S88, S89, S90, S91, S92, S93, S94, S95, S96, S97, S98, S99, S100, S101’). Additional information was collated during meetings conducted at WHO regional level between 2007 and 2011. Two questionnaires regarding epidemiology and drug access were completed by experts and national program managers. Visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence ranges were estimated by country and epidemiological region based on reported incidence, underreporting rates if available, and the judgment of national and international experts. Based on these estimates, approximately 0.2 to 0.4 cases and 0.7 to 1.2 million VL and CL cases, respectively, occur each year. More than 90% of global VL cases occur in six countries: India, Bangladesh, Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia and Brazil. Cutaneous leishmaniasis is more widely distributed, with about one-third of cases occurring in each of three epidemiological regions, the Americas, the Mediterranean basin, and western Asia from the Middle East to Central Asia. The ten countries with the highest estimated case counts, Afghanistan, Algeria, Colombia, Brazil, Iran, Syria, Ethiopia, North Sudan, Costa

  20. Recipe Estimation Using Mass Spectrometer and Large-Scale Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mamun, Al; Nakamoto, Takamichi

    An odor recorder is an instrument capable of determining the qualitative and quantitative composition of the target smell (e.g. apple), so called odor recipe. A variety of smells can be generated by blending multiple odor components; an odor recorder can reproduce smells as well as record them so that the sensor array output pattern of the blended odor can match that of the target odor. Although the range of smell to be recorded has been so far limited, this work enhances that range using mass spectrometry without GC. We previously proposed the algorithm to select appropriate odor components among huge number of candidates. Here we applied this proposed algorithm experimentally for reproducing different eight fruit flavors using odor components selected from our laboratory database, composed of recorded mass patterns of 190 components. The blended and target smells were compared using sensory test (triangle test). Sensory test revealed that the smell blended according to the estimated recipe using our proposed method was almost the same as the target one. Moreover, even if the less contributed components in mass spectra are eliminated from the estimated recipe, the flavor remains almost similar to that of the target one.

  1. Ambulatory estimation of center of mass displacement during walking.

    PubMed

    Schepers, H Martin; van Asseldonk, Edwin H F; Buurke, Jaap H; Veltink, Peter H

    2009-04-01

    The center of mass (CoM) and the center of pressure (CoP) are two variables that are crucial in assessing energy expenditure and stability of human walking. The purpose of this study is to estimate the CoM displacement continuously using an ambulatory measurement system. The measurement system consists of instrumented shoes with 6 DOF force/moment sensors beneath the heels and the forefeet. Moreover, two inertial sensors are rigidly attached to the force/moment sensors for the estimation of position and orientation. The estimation of CoM displacement is achieved by fusing low-pass filtered CoP data with high-pass filtered double integrated CoM acceleration, both estimated using the instrumented shoes. Optimal cutoff frequencies for the low-pass and high-pass filters appeared to be 0.2 Hz for the horizontal direction and 0.5 Hz for the vertical direction. The CoM estimation using this ambulatory measurement system was compared to CoM estimation using an optical reference system based on the segmental kinematics method. The rms difference of each component of the CoM displacement averaged over a hundred trials obtained from seven stroke patients was ( 0.020 +/-0.007 ) m (mean +/- standard deviation) for the forward x-direction, ( 0.013 +/-0.005) m for the lateral y-direction, and ( 0.007 +/-0.001) m for the upward z-direction. Based on the results presented in this study, it is concluded that the instrumented shoe concept allows accurate and continuous estimation of CoM displacement under ambulatory conditions.

  2. Cellulose thermal decomposition kinetics: Global mass loss kinetics

    SciTech Connect

    Milosavljevic, I.; Suuberg, E.M.

    1995-04-01

    The kinetics of cellulose pyrolysis have received considerable attention during the past few decades. Despite intensive study, there remains controversy in the literature even on a topic as basic as the global kinetics of pyrolysis. The reported kinetics have been reconsidered in light of new experimental results that suggest a simple resolution to that part of the controversy concerning the activation energy of pyrolysis. It appears that the reported kinetics are sensitive to the heating rate employed in the experiments used to deduce them. Experiments in which the cellulose is rapidly heated to above 600 K give apparently ``low`` activation energies, mainly between about 140 and 155 kJ/mol, in the case of the material studied here. This applies to both ``isothermal`` and high heating rate temperature-ramp experiments. Alternatively, cellulose heated more slowly to temperatures below 600 K appears to lose mass with an activation energy that is about 218 kJ/mol, The mathematical modeling of processes involving pyrolysis of cellulosic materials (e.g., biomass conversion processes, fire phenomena) can be strongly influenced by which kinetics are assumed, since the kinetic constants from one regime will not accurately predict mass loss in the other.

  3. Mass Loss and Surface Displacement Estimates in Greenland from GRACE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jensen, Tim; Forsberg, Rene

    2015-04-01

    The estimation of ice sheet mass changes from GRACE is basically an inverse problem, the solution is non-unique and several procedures for determining the mass distribution exists. We present Greenland mass loss results from two such procedures, namely a direct spherical harmonic inversion procedure possible through a thin layer assumption, and a generalized inverse masscon procedure. These results are updated to the end of 2014, including the unusual 2013 mass gain anomaly, and show a good agreement when taking into account leakage from the Canadian Icecaps. The GRACE mass changes are further compared to GPS uplift data on the bedrock along the edge of the ice sheet. The solid Earth deformation is assumed to consist of an elastic deformation of the crust and an anelastic deformation of the underlying mantle (GIA). The crustal deformation is due to current surface loading effects and therefore contains a strong seasonal component of variation, superimposed on a secular trend. The majority of the anelastic GIA deformation of the mantle is believed to be approximately constant. An accelerating secular trend and seasonal changes, as seen in Greenland, is therefore assumed to be due to elastic deformation from changes in surface mass loading from the ice sheet. The GRACE and GPS comparison is only valid by assuring that the signal content of the two observables are consistent. The GPS receivers are measuring movement at a single point on the bedrock surface, and therefore sensitive to a limited loading footprint, while the GRACE satellites on the other hand measures a filtered, attenuated gravitational field, at an altitude of approximately 500 km, making it sensitive to a much larger area. Despite this, the seasonal loading signal in the two observables show a reasonably good agreement.

  4. Center of Mass Estimation for a Spinning Spacecraft Using Doppler Shift of the GPS Carrier Frequency

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sedlak, Joseph E.

    2016-01-01

    A sequential filter is presented for estimating the center of mass (CM) of a spinning spacecraft using Doppler shift data from a set of onboard Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers. The advantage of the proposed method is that it is passive and can be run continuously in the background without using commanded thruster firings to excite spacecraft dynamical motion for observability. The NASA Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission is used as a test case for the CM estimator. The four MMS spacecraft carry star cameras for accurate attitude and spin rate estimation. The angle between the spacecraft nominal spin axis (for MMS this is the geometric body Z-axis) and the major principal axis of inertia is called the coning angle. The transverse components of the estimated rate provide a direct measure of the coning angle. The coning angle has been seen to shift slightly after every orbit and attitude maneuver. This change is attributed to a small asymmetry in the fuel distribution that changes with each burn. This paper shows a correlation between the apparent mass asymmetry deduced from the variations in the coning angle and the CM estimates made using the GPS Doppler data. The consistency between the changes in the coning angle and the CM provides validation of the proposed GPS Doppler method for estimation of the CM on spinning spacecraft.

  5. Mass estimation and discrimination during brief periods of zero gravity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ross, H. E.; Reschke, M. F.

    1982-01-01

    Under zero gravity, the gravitational cues to mass are removed, but the inertial cues remain. A sensation of heaviness is generated if objects are shaken, and hence given a changing acceleration. A magnitude estimation experiment was conducted during the 0-G phase of parabolic flight and on the ground, and the results suggested that objects felt lighter under 0 G than under 1 G. Mass discrimination was also measured in flight, and yielded Weber fractions of .18 under 0 G, .16 under 1.8 G, and .09 under 1 G. Poor performance under microgravity and macrogravity was probably due mainly to lack of time for adaptation to changed G levels. It is predicted that discrimination should improve during the course of prolonged spaceflight, and that there should be an aftereffect of poor discrimination on return to earth.

  6. Utilizing Ion-Mobility Data to Estimate Molecular Masses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Duong, Tuan; Kanik, Isik

    2008-01-01

    A method is being developed for utilizing readings of an ion-mobility spectrometer (IMS) to estimate molecular masses of ions that have passed through the spectrometer. The method involves the use of (1) some feature-based descriptors of structures of molecules of interest and (2) reduced ion mobilities calculated from IMS readings as inputs to (3) a neural network. This development is part of a larger effort to enable the use of IMSs as relatively inexpensive, robust, lightweight instruments to identify, via molecular masses, individual compounds or groups of compounds (especially organic compounds) that may be present in specific environments or samples. Potential applications include detection of organic molecules as signs of life on remote planets, modeling and detection of biochemicals of interest in the pharmaceutical and agricultural industries, and detection of chemical and biological hazards in industrial, homeland-security, and industrial settings.

  7. Estimation of brassylic acid by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry

    SciTech Connect

    Mohammed J. Nasrullah, Erica N. Pfarr, Pooja Thapliyal, Nicholas S. Dusek, Kristofer L. Schiele, Christy Gallagher-Lein, and James A. Bahr

    2010-10-29

    The main focus of this work is to estimate Brassylic Acid (BA) using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). BA is a product obtained from the oxidative cleavage of Erucic Acid (EA). BA has various applications for making nylons and high performance polymers. BA is a 13 carbon compound with two carboxylic acid functional groups at the terminal end. BA has a long hydrocarbon chain that makes the molecule less sensitive to some of the characterization techniques. Although BA can be characterized by NMR, both the starting material (EA) and products BA and nonanoic acid (NA) have peaks at similar {delta}, ppm values. Hence it becomes difficult for the quick estimation of BA during its synthesis.

  8. Exploring new refinements to estimation of Te and mass loading

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheppmann, B.; Lowry, A. R.

    2015-12-01

    Effective elastic thickness (Te) is a measure of integrated lithospheric strength that depends on rheological parameters such as lithology, temperature, water fugacity, and state of stress. It is a useful constraint for resolving in-situ rheology and stress within the lithosphere, and therefore critical to understanding surface deformation and controls on tectonic processes. Te is commonly estimated via comparison of observed and model-predicted spectral-domain coherence between Bouguer gravity and topography signals. The Te producing a model coherence that best fits observed coherence is taken to best represent lithospheric bending strength. However, the solution relies on accuracy of the method's assumption that loads at the surface and in Earth's interior are truly uncorrelated; Te estimates may be biased in regions where this criterion fails. Determining mechanical anisotropy is also ambiguous, as true anisotropy cannot be reliably distinguished from artefacts in gravity and topography data inversion. We propose a new modeling approach that will refine existing Te estimation via two innovations. First, we reduce the null-space in estimates of surface- versus subsurface contributions to loading by assimilating independent estimates of subsurface mass variations derived from EarthScope USArray seismic imaging data. This reduces the ambiguity of loading estimates, and provides an independent means of testing for anisotropy of the applied loads. Second, we substitute a finite-element approach to forward modeling spatially-varying flexural response in place of conventional uniform-Te linear thin plate models. This modification allows Te to vary and and loads to update iteratively, and improves separation of intrinsic Te-anisotropy from effects introduced by lateral variations in isotropic Te. A variable-Te forward modeling approach also improves spatial resolution of the inversion as it is no longer limited by a need to subsample data through windowing or wavelets.

  9. Estimating trends in the global mean temperature record

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poppick, Andrew; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Stein, Michael L.

    2017-06-01

    Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to de-emphasize physical and statistical assumptions: examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for internal variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. However, given a limited data record and the presence of internal variability, estimating radiatively forced temperature trends in the historical record necessarily requires some assumptions. Ostensibly empirical methods can also involve an inherent conflict in assumptions: they require data records that are short enough for naive trend models to be applicable, but long enough for long-timescale internal variability to be accounted for. In the context of global mean temperatures, empirical methods that appear to de-emphasize assumptions can therefore produce misleading inferences, because the trend over the twentieth century is complex and the scale of temporal correlation is long relative to the length of the data record. We illustrate here how a simple but physically motivated trend model can provide better-fitting and more broadly applicable trend estimates and can allow for a wider array of questions to be addressed. In particular, the model allows one to distinguish, within a single statistical framework, between uncertainties in the shorter-term vs. longer-term response to radiative forcing, with implications not only on historical trends but also on uncertainties in future projections. We also investigate the consequence on inferred uncertainties of the choice of a statistical description of internal variability. While nonparametric methods may seem to avoid making explicit assumptions, we demonstrate how even misspecified parametric statistical methods, if attuned to the

  10. Global Time-Delay Estimation in Ultrasound Elastography.

    PubMed

    Hashemi, Hoda Sadat; Rivaz, Hassan

    2017-10-01

    A critical step in quasi-static ultrasound elastography is the estimation of time delay between two frames of radio-frequency (RF) data that are obtained while the tissue is undergoing deformation. This paper presents a novel technique for time-delay estimation (TDE) of all samples of RF data simultaneously, thereby exploiting all the information in RF data for TDE. A nonlinear cost function that incorporates similarity of RF data intensity and prior information of displacement continuity is formulated. Optimization of this function involves searching for TDE of all samples of the RF data, rendering the optimization intractable with conventional techniques given that the number of variables can be approximately one million. Therefore, the optimization problem is converted to a sparse linear system of equations, and is solved in real time using a computationally efficient optimization technique. We call our method GLobal Ultrasound Elastography (GLUE), and compare it to dynamic programming analytic minimization (DPAM) and normalized cross correlation (NCC) techniques. Our simulation results show that the contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) values of the axial strain maps are 4.94 for NCC, 14.62 for DPAM, and 26.31 for GLUE. Our results on experimental data from tissue mimicking phantoms show that the CNR values of the axial strain maps are 1.07 for NCC, 16.01 for DPAM, and 18.21 for GLUE. Finally, our results on in vivo data show that the CNR values of the axial strain maps are 3.56 for DPAM and 13.20 for GLUE.

  11. Global cost estimates of reducing carbon emissions through avoided deforestation.

    PubMed

    Kindermann, Georg; Obersteiner, Michael; Sohngen, Brent; Sathaye, Jayant; Andrasko, Kenneth; Rametsteiner, Ewald; Schlamadinger, Bernhard; Wunder, Sven; Beach, Robert

    2008-07-29

    Tropical deforestation is estimated to cause about one-quarter of anthropogenic carbon emissions, loss of biodiversity, and other environmental services. United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change talks are now considering mechanisms for avoiding deforestation (AD), but the economic potential of AD has yet to be addressed. We use three economic models of global land use and management to analyze the potential contribution of AD activities to reduced greenhouse gas emissions. AD activities are found to be a competitive, low-cost abatement option. A program providing a 10% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 0.3-0.6 Gt (1 Gt = 1 x 10(5) g) CO(2).yr(-1) in emission reductions and would require $0.4 billion to $1.7 billion.yr(-1) for 30 years. A 50% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 1.5-2.7 Gt CO(2).yr(-1) in emission reductions and would require $17.2 billion to $28.0 billion.yr(-1). Finally, some caveats to the analysis that could increase costs of AD programs are described.

  12. Externally driven global Alfvén eigenmodes applied for effective mass number measurement on TCABR

    SciTech Connect

    Puglia, P. G. P. P.; Elfimov, A. G.; Ruchko, L. F.; Galvão, R. M. O.; Guimarães-Filho, Z.; Ronchi, G.

    2014-12-15

    The excitation and detection of Global Alfvén Eigenmodes on TCABR for diagnostic purposes are presented. The modes can be excited with one or two in-vessel antennae, with up to 15 A of current in each, in the frequency range from 2 to 4 MHz. This scheme allows the estimation of the effective mass number at the plasma center, which value is affected by impurity concentration in the core. An amplifier based on MOSFETs is used to excite the waves driven by low power, in order to not change the basic plasma parameters. The variation of the GAE with density is verified and the location of the mode resonance at the plasma center is confirmed by the sawtooth beating, so that the correspondingly beating phase inversion improves the precision on the resonant condition determination. The toroidal parity of the modes N = 1,2 is determined by use of two opposite located antennae with different phase of the RF current. Knowledge of toroidal mode number is important as it identifies GAE location and defines the estimated effective mass value. The estimated value for A{sub eff} is ∼1.4–1.5, corresponding to 5–7% of carbon impurity concentration. The measured value of A{sub eff} is used to estimate Z{sub eff}, which is compared to older TCA experiments and the value obtained by the Spitzer conductivity.

  13. In situ global method for measurement of oxygen demand and mass transfer

    SciTech Connect

    Klasson, K.T.; Lundbaeck, K.M.O.; Clausen, E.C.; Gaddy, J.L.

    1997-05-01

    Two aerobic microorganisms, Saccharomycopsis lipolytica and Brevibacterium lactofermentum, have been used in a study of mass transfer and oxygen uptake from a global perspective using a closed gas system. Oxygen concentrations in the gas and liquid were followed using oxygen electrodes, and the results allowed for easy calculation of in situ oxygen transport. The cell yields on oxygen for S. lipolytica and B. lactofermentum were 1.01 and 1.53 g/g respectively. The mass transfer coefficient was estimated as 10 h{sup {minus}1} at 500 rpm for both fermentations. The advantages with this method are noticeable since the use of model systems may be avoided, and the in situ measurements of oxygen demand assure reliable data for scale-up.

  14. Galaxy cluster mass estimation from stacked spectroscopic analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farahi, Arya; Evrard, August E.; Rozo, Eduardo; Rykoff, Eli S.; Wechsler, Risa H.

    2016-08-01

    We use simulated galaxy surveys to study: (i) how galaxy membership in redMaPPer clusters maps to the underlying halo population, and (ii) the accuracy of a mean dynamical cluster mass, Mσ(λ), derived from stacked pairwise spectroscopy of clusters with richness λ. Using ˜130 000 galaxy pairs patterned after the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) redMaPPer cluster sample study of Rozo et al., we show that the pairwise velocity probability density function of central-satellite pairs with mi < 19 in the simulation matches the form seen in Rozo et al. Through joint membership matching, we deconstruct the main Gaussian velocity component into its halo contributions, finding that the top-ranked halo contributes ˜60 per cent of the stacked signal. The halo mass scale inferred by applying the virial scaling of Evrard et al. to the velocity normalization matches, to within a few per cent, the log-mean halo mass derived through galaxy membership matching. We apply this approach, along with miscentring and galaxy velocity bias corrections, to estimate the log-mean matched halo mass at z = 0.2 of SDSS redMaPPer clusters. Employing the velocity bias constraints of Guo et al., we find = ln (M30) + αm ln (λ/30) with M30 = 1.56 ± 0.35 × 1014 M⊙ and αm = 1.31 ± 0.06stat ± 0.13sys. Systematic uncertainty in the velocity bias of satellite galaxies overwhelmingly dominates the error budget.

  15. Target prices for mass production of tyrosine kinase inhibitors for global cancer treatment

    PubMed Central

    Hill, Andrew; Gotham, Dzintars; Fortunak, Joseph; Meldrum, Jonathan; Erbacher, Isabelle; Martin, Manuel; Shoman, Haitham; Levi, Jacob; Powderly, William G; Bower, Mark

    2016-01-01

    Objective To calculate sustainable generic prices for 4 tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs). Background TKIs have proven survival benefits in the treatment of several cancers, including chronic myeloid leukaemia, breast, liver, renal and lung cancer. However, current high prices are a barrier to treatment. Mass production of low-cost generic antiretrovirals has led to over 13 million people being on HIV/AIDS treatment worldwide. This analysis estimates target prices for generic TKIs, assuming similar methods of mass production. Methods Four TKIs with patent expiry dates in the next 5 years were selected for analysis: imatinib, erlotinib, lapatinib and sorafenib. Chemistry, dosing, published data on per-kilogram pricing for commercial transactions of active pharmaceutical ingredient (API), and quotes from manufacturers were used to estimate costs of production. Analysis included costs of excipients, formulation, packaging, shipping and a 50% profit margin. Target prices were compared with current prices. Global numbers of patients eligible for treatment with each TKI were estimated. Results API costs per kg were $347–$746 for imatinib, $2470 for erlotinib, $4671 for lapatinib, and $3000 for sorafenib. Basing on annual dose requirements, costs of formulation/packaging and a 50% profit margin, target generic prices per person-year were $128–$216 for imatinib, $240 for erlotinib, $1450 for sorafenib, and $4020 for lapatinib. Over 1 million people would be newly eligible to start treatment with these TKIs annually. Conclusions Mass generic production of several TKIs could achieve treatment prices in the range of $128–$4020 per person-year, versus current US prices of $75161–$139 138. Generic TKIs could allow significant savings and scaling-up of treatment globally, for over 1 million eligible patients. PMID:26817636

  16. Target prices for mass production of tyrosine kinase inhibitors for global cancer treatment.

    PubMed

    Hill, Andrew; Gotham, Dzintars; Fortunak, Joseph; Meldrum, Jonathan; Erbacher, Isabelle; Martin, Manuel; Shoman, Haitham; Levi, Jacob; Powderly, William G; Bower, Mark

    2016-01-27

    To calculate sustainable generic prices for 4 tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs). TKIs have proven survival benefits in the treatment of several cancers, including chronic myeloid leukaemia, breast, liver, renal and lung cancer. However, current high prices are a barrier to treatment. Mass production of low-cost generic antiretrovirals has led to over 13 million people being on HIV/AIDS treatment worldwide. This analysis estimates target prices for generic TKIs, assuming similar methods of mass production. Four TKIs with patent expiry dates in the next 5 years were selected for analysis: imatinib, erlotinib, lapatinib and sorafenib. Chemistry, dosing, published data on per-kilogram pricing for commercial transactions of active pharmaceutical ingredient (API), and quotes from manufacturers were used to estimate costs of production. Analysis included costs of excipients, formulation, packaging, shipping and a 50% profit margin. Target prices were compared with current prices. Global numbers of patients eligible for treatment with each TKI were estimated. API costs per kg were $347-$746 for imatinib, $2470 for erlotinib, $4671 for lapatinib, and $3000 for sorafenib. Basing on annual dose requirements, costs of formulation/packaging and a 50% profit margin, target generic prices per person-year were $128-$216 for imatinib, $240 for erlotinib, $1450 for sorafenib, and $4020 for lapatinib. Over 1 million people would be newly eligible to start treatment with these TKIs annually. Mass generic production of several TKIs could achieve treatment prices in the range of $128-$4020 per person-year, versus current US prices of $75161-$139,138. Generic TKIs could allow significant savings and scaling-up of treatment globally, for over 1 million eligible patients. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  17. Water mass age and aging driving chromophoric dissolved organic matter in the dark global ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Catalá, T. S.; Reche, I.; Álvarez, M.; Khatiwala, S.; Guallart, E. F.; Benítez-Barrios, V. M.; Fuentes-Lema, A.; Romera-Castillo, C.; Nieto-Cid, M.; Pelejero, C.; Fraile-Nuez, E.; Ortega-Retuerta, E.; Marrasé, C.; Álvarez-Salgado, X. A.

    2015-07-01

    The omnipresence of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in the open ocean enables its use as a tracer for biochemical processes throughout the global overturning circulation. We made an inventory of CDOM optical properties, ideal water age (τ), and apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) along the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Ocean waters sampled during the Malaspina 2010 expedition. A water mass analysis was applied to obtain intrinsic, hereinafter archetypal, values of τ, AOU, oxygen utilization rate (OUR), and CDOM absorption coefficients, spectral slopes and quantum yield for each one of the 22 water types intercepted during this circumnavigation. Archetypal values of AOU and OUR have been used to trace the differential influence of water mass aging and aging rates, respectively, on CDOM variables. Whereas the absorption coefficient at 325 nm (a325) and the fluorescence quantum yield at 340 nm (Φ340) increased, the spectral slope over the wavelength range 275-295 nm (S275-295) and the ratio of spectral slopes over the ranges 275-295 nm and 350-400 nm (SR) decreased significantly with water mass aging (AOU). Combination of the slope of the linear regression between archetypal AOU and a325 with the estimated global OUR allowed us to obtain a CDOM turnover time of 634 ± 120 years, which exceeds the flushing time of the dark ocean (>200 m) by 46%. This positive relationship supports the assumption of in situ production and accumulation of CDOM as a by-product of microbial metabolism as water masses turn older. Furthermore, our data evidence that global-scale CDOM quantity (a325) is more dependent on aging (AOU), whereas CDOM quality (S275-295, SR, Φ340) is more dependent on aging rate (OUR).

  18. A mass estimate of an intermediate-mass black hole in ω Centauri

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miocchi, P.

    2010-05-01

    Context. The problem of the existence of intermediate-mass black holes (IMBHs) at the centre of globular clusters is a hot and controversial topic in current astrophysical research with important implications in stellar and galaxy formation. Aims: The purpose of this paper is to provide further evidence on the presence of an IMBH in ω Centauri and to give an independent estimate of its mass. Methods: We employed a self-consistent spherical model with anisotropic velocity distribution. It consists in a generalisation of the King model by including the Bahcall-Wolf distribution function in the IMBH vicinity. Results: By the parametric fitting of the model to recent HST/ACS data for the surface brightness profile, we found an IMBH to cluster total mass ratio of M_bullet /M = 5.8-1.2+0.9 × 10-3. It is also found that the model yields a fit of the line-of-sight velocity dispersion profile that is better without mass segregation than in the segregated case. This confirms the current thought of a non-relaxed status for this peculiar cluster. The best fit model to the kinematic data leads, moreover, to a cluster total mass estimate of M = (3.1 ± 0.3) × 106 M_⊙, thus giving an IMBH mass in the range 1.3×104 < M_bullet < 2.3×104 M_⊙ (at 1σ confidence level). A slight degree of radial velocity anisotropy in the outer region (r ⪆ 12') is required to match the outer surface brightness profile.

  19. The Estimation of the Fat Free Mass Index in Athletes

    PubMed Central

    Loenneke, Jeremy P.; Wilson, Jacob M.; Wray, Mandy E.; Barnes, Jeremy T.; Kearney, Monica L.; Pujol, Thomas J.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose The purpose of this investigation was to compare a practical measurement of fat free mass index (FFMI) from bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) to the dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) value in collegiate athletes. Methods Thirty-three male baseball players and 16 female gymnasts volunteered to participate in this study during their respective pre-season. Subjects visited the laboratory once and had their measurements taken in the following order: weight, height, DEXA, and Omron HBF-500. Results The BIA device investigated was not a valid estimate of FFMI when compared to the DEXA. The TE was 0.93 kg/ m2 for males and 0.78 kg/ m2 for females. There were also significant mean differences between the BIA prediction and the DEXA value for males (BIA=20.6 kg/m2 vs. DEXA=21.1 kg/m2, P=0.007) and females (BIA=16.2 kg/m2 vs. DEXA=17.5 kg/m2, P=0.001). Conclusions The BIA device investigated in this study did not provide a valid estimate of FFMI in male and female collegiate athletes. Although there was a general tendency for the BIA to underestimate FFMI compared to DEXA, 98% of the estimates were within plus or minus 2 kg/ m2. Therefore, while slightly biased, BIA may provide a reasonable (± 2 kg/ m2) estimate of nutritional status for practitioners who are unable able to afford more expensive equipment. PMID:23012640

  20. Estimation of Particulate Mass and Manganese Exposure Levels among Welders

    PubMed Central

    Hobson, Angela; Seixas, Noah; Sterling, David; Racette, Brad A.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Welders are frequently exposed to Manganese (Mn), which may increase the risk of neurological impairment. Historical exposure estimates for welding-exposed workers are needed for epidemiological studies evaluating the relationship between welding and neurological or other health outcomes. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a multivariate model to estimate quantitative levels of welding fume exposures based on welding particulate mass and Mn concentrations reported in the published literature. Methods: Articles that described welding particulate and Mn exposures during field welding activities were identified through a comprehensive literature search. Summary measures of exposure and related determinants such as year of sampling, welding process performed, type of ventilation used, degree of enclosure, base metal, and location of sampling filter were extracted from each article. The natural log of the reported arithmetic mean exposure level was used as the dependent variable in model building, while the independent variables included the exposure determinants. Cross-validation was performed to aid in model selection and to evaluate the generalizability of the models. Results: A total of 33 particulate and 27 Mn means were included in the regression analysis. The final model explained 76% of the variability in the mean exposures and included welding process and degree of enclosure as predictors. There was very little change in the explained variability and root mean squared error between the final model and its cross-validation model indicating the final model is robust given the available data. Conclusions: This model may be improved with more detailed exposure determinants; however, the relatively large amount of variance explained by the final model along with the positive generalizability results of the cross-validation increases the confidence that the estimates derived from this model can be used for estimating welder exposures

  1. Sequential estimation of surface water mass changes from daily satellite gravimetry data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramillien, G. L.; Frappart, F.; Gratton, S.; Vasseur, X.

    2015-03-01

    We propose a recursive Kalman filtering approach to map regional spatio-temporal variations of terrestrial water mass over large continental areas, such as South America. Instead of correcting hydrology model outputs by the GRACE observations using a Kalman filter estimation strategy, regional 2-by-2 degree water mass solutions are constructed by integration of daily potential differences deduced from GRACE K-band range rate (KBRR) measurements. Recovery of regional water mass anomaly averages obtained by accumulation of information of daily noise-free simulated GRACE data shows that convergence is relatively fast and yields accurate solutions. In the case of cumulating real GRACE KBRR data contaminated by observational noise, the sequential method of step-by-step integration provides estimates of water mass variation for the period 2004-2011 by considering a set of suitable a priori error uncertainty parameters to stabilize the inversion. Spatial and temporal averages of the Kalman filter solutions over river basin surfaces are consistent with the ones computed using global monthly/10-day GRACE solutions from official providers CSR, GFZ and JPL. They are also highly correlated to in situ records of river discharges (70-95 %), especially for the Obidos station where the total outflow of the Amazon River is measured. The sparse daily coverage of the GRACE satellite tracks limits the time resolution of the regional Kalman filter solutions, and thus the detection of short-term hydrological events.

  2. Impact of global warming on the Antarctic mass balance and global sea level

    SciTech Connect

    Budd, W.F.; Simmonds, I.

    1992-03-01

    The onset of global warming from increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can have a number of important different impacts on the Antarctic ice sheet. These include increasing basal melt of ice shelves, faster flow of the grounded ice, increased surface ablation in coastal regions, and increased precipitation over the interior. An analysis of these separate terms by ice sheet modeling indicates that the impact of increasing ice sheet flow rates on sea level does not become a dominant factor until 100--200 years after the realization of the warming. For the time period of the next 100 years the most important impact on sea level from the Antarctic mass balance can be expected to result from increasing precipitation minus evaporation balance over the grounded ice. The present Antarctic net accumulation and coastal ice flux each amount to about 2000 km3 yr-1, both of which on their own would equate to approximately 6 mm yr-1 of sea level change. The present rate of sea level rise of about 1.2 mm yr-1 is therefore equivalent to about 20% imbalance in the Antarctic mass fluxes. The magnitude of the changes to the Antarctic precipitation and evaporation have been studied by a series of General Circulation Model experiments, using a model which gives a reasonable simulation of the present Antarctic climate, including precipitation and evaporation.

  3. Comoving frame models of hot star winds. II. Reduction of O star wind mass-loss rates in global models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krtička, J.; Kubát, J.

    2017-10-01

    We calculate global (unified) wind models of main-sequence, giant, and supergiant O stars from our Galaxy. The models are calculated by solving hydrodynamic, kinetic equilibrium (also known as NLTE) and comoving frame (CMF) radiative transfer equations from the (nearly) hydrostatic photosphere to the supersonic wind. For given stellar parameters, our models predict the photosphere and wind structure and in particular the wind mass-loss rates without any free parameters. Our predicted mass-loss rates are by a factor of 2-5 lower than the commonly used predictions. A possible cause of the difference is abandoning of the Sobolev approximation for the calculation of the radiative force, because our models agree with predictions of CMF NLTE radiative transfer codes. Our predicted mass-loss rates agree nicely with the mass-loss rates derived from observed near-infrared and X-ray line profiles and are slightly lower than mass-loss rates derived from combined UV and Hα diagnostics. The empirical mass-loss rate estimates corrected for clumping may therefore be reconciled with theoretical predictions in such a way that the average ratio between individual mass-loss rate estimates is not higher than about 1.6. On the other hand, our predictions are by factor of 4.7 lower than pure Hα mass-loss rate estimates and can be reconciled with these values only assuming a microclumping factor of at least eight.

  4. Estimated Global, Regional, and National Disease Burdens Related to Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Consumption in 2010.

    PubMed

    Singh, Gitanjali M; Micha, Renata; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Lim, Stephen; Ezzati, Majid; Mozaffarian, Dariush

    2015-08-25

    Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are consumed globally and contribute to adiposity. However, the worldwide impact of SSBs on burdens of adiposity-related cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), cancers, and diabetes mellitus has not been assessed by nation, age, and sex. We modeled global, regional, and national burdens of disease associated with SSB consumption by age/sex in 2010. Data on SSB consumption levels were pooled from national dietary surveys worldwide. The effects of SSB intake on body mass index and diabetes mellitus, and of elevated body mass index on CVD, diabetes mellitus, and cancers were derived from large prospective cohort pooling studies. Disease-specific mortality/morbidity data were obtained from Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We computed cause-specific population-attributable fractions for SSB consumption, which were multiplied by cause-specific mortality/morbidity to compute estimates of SSB-attributable death/disability. Analyses were done by country/age/sex; uncertainties of all input data were propagated into final estimates. Worldwide, the model estimated 184 000 (95% uncertainty interval, 161 000-208 000) deaths/y attributable to SSB consumption: 133 000 (126 000-139 000) from diabetes mellitus, 45 000 (26 000-61 000) from CVD, and 6450 (4300-8600) from cancers. Five percent of SSB-related deaths occurred in low-income, 70.9% in middle-income, and 24.1% in high-income countries. Proportional mortality attributable to SSBs ranged from <1% in Japanese >65 years if age to 30% in Mexicans <45 years of age. Among the 20 most populous countries, Mexico had largest absolute (405 deaths/million adults) and proportional (12.1%) deaths from SSBs. A total of 8.5 (2.8, 19.2) million disability-adjusted life years were related to SSB intake (4.5% of diabetes mellitus-related disability-adjusted life years). SSBs are a single, modifiable component of diet that can impact preventable death/disability in

  5. The global impact of noncommunicable diseases: estimates and projections.

    PubMed

    Manton, K G

    1988-01-01

    With the aging of populations in developing countries there is both a demographic and an epidemiological transition which affects the impact of chronic degenerative diseases on the health status of the populations. Demographic transition takes place in countries where there are effective programmes of disease control which allow for survival during the early years of childhood and adolescence. This results in an increase in life expectancy which places larger proportions of the population in the age range (60 years and older) in which chronic degenerative diseases become the major determinants of health status. Epidemiological transition in diseases may also be brought about by shifts in social and economic patterns which favour detrimental changes in risk factors for the chronic degenerative diseases. Such changes may include health-related behaviour which augments dietary consumption of fats and alcohol, increases obesity, increases smoking and decreases physical activity. Such changes in risk-factor levels increase the prevalence of chronic degenerative diseases which manifest themselves at later ages, and for which early preventive actions could be cost-effective. In order to illustrate the impact of both demographic and risk-factor effects, analyses are made of the impact of increases in life expectancy on cause-specific mortality in both developing and developed countries. It is shown that there is great similarity in the effect of major noncommunicable diseases on the life expectancy of adults in both developed and developing countries. The major differences are seen to be in the proportions of deaths expected from such diseases as cancer, diabetes, heart disease, stroke and cirrhosis; but not in the distribution of age at death which is the better measure of disease impact. Demographic analyses, computing indirect estimates of mortality, also demonstrate that there are currently more chronic disease deaths in developing than developed countries and that as

  6. Tri-Ponderal Mass Index vs Body Mass Index in Estimating Body Fat During Adolescence.

    PubMed

    Peterson, Courtney M; Su, Haiyan; Thomas, Diana M; Heo, Moonseong; Golnabi, Amir H; Pietrobelli, Angelo; Heymsfield, Steven B

    2017-07-01

    Body mass index (BMI) is used to diagnose obesity in adolescents worldwide, despite evidence that weight does not scale with height squared in adolescents. To account for this, health care providers diagnose obesity using BMI percentiles for each age (BMI z scores), but this does not ensure that BMI is accurate in adolescents. To compare the accuracy of BMI vs other body fat indices of the form body mass divided by heightn in estimating body fat levels in adolescents. Cross-sectional data from the 1999 to 2006 US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were analyzed between September 2015 and December 2016. Dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry and anthropometric data were used to determine changes in body fat levels, body proportions, and the scaling relationships among body mass, height, and percent body fat. To assess the merits of each adiposity index, 3 criteria were used: stability with age, accuracy in estimating percent body fat, and accuracy in classifying adolescents as overweight vs normal weight. Participants included 2285 non-Hispanic white participants aged 8 to 29 years. Percent body fat varied with both age and height during adolescence, invalidating the standard weight-to-height regression as the way of finding the optimal body fat index. Because the correct regression model (percent body fat is proportional to mass divided by heightn) suggested that percent body fat scales to height with an exponent closer to 3, we therefore focused on the tri-ponderal mass index (TMI; mass divided by height cubed) as an alternative to BMI z scores. For ages 8 to 17 years, TMI yielded greater stability with age and estimated percent body fat better than BMI (R2 = 0.64 vs 0.38 in boys and R2 = 0.72 vs 0.66 in girls). Moreover, TMI misclassified adolescents as overweight vs normal weight less often than BMI z scores (TMI, 8.4%; 95% CI, 7.3%-9.5% vs BMI, 19.4%; 95% CI, 17.8%-20.0%; P < .001) and performed equally as well as updated BMI percentiles

  7. Global Evaluations of Mountain Glacier and Ice Cap Mass Balance (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pfeffer, W. T.

    2010-12-01

    Net mass change in the aggregate global Mountain Glacier and Ice Cap (MGIC) cryospheric component is presently a significant factor in changing land hydrology, regional/local alterations of ocean salinity, and as a contributor to sea level change. The accurate evaluation of this net mass change is complicated by the very large number (potentially as many as 400,000) of individual ice bodies, their wide geographic distribution, the lack of adequate ongoing mass change observations, and even a lack of basic inventory data in some of the world’s most active MGIC systems, for example in Alaska and among the peripheral ice bodies surrounding the Greenland Ice Sheet. Estimates of aggregate MGIC mass change are made by upscaling of sparse observations by a variety of averaging and extrapolation methods, and also require power law area-volume scaling methods to infer unmeasured ice volumes from measured areas. I review these methods, including the synthesis of MGIC changes presented in the recent Snow, Water, Ice, and Permafrost Assessment (SWIPA), conducted by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program.

  8. Modelling Glacier Mass Balance on Regional and Global Scales: How Precise Can the Models Be?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Radic, V.; Hock, R.

    2014-12-01

    Changes in mass contained by mountain glaciers and ice caps can modify the Earth's hydrological cycle on multiple scales. On a global scale, the mass loss from glaciers contributes to sea-level rise. On regional and local scales, glacier meltwater is an important contributor to and modulator of river flow. Until recently, the lack of basic inventory data was a major impediment in global mass balance assessments and projections. The recently completed Randolph Glacier Inventory, the first globally complete glacier inventory, is a major forward step towards reducing uncertainties in global-scale studies. In this talk I will review some of the recent attempts to model glacier mass changes on regional and global scales, and discuss the main challenges these models face. Particular emphasis will be given to the use of glacier mass balance observations in model calibration and evaluation.

  9. Approach for estimating global landfill-methane emissions. Final report, April-September 1990

    SciTech Connect

    Peer, R.L.; Leininger, A.E.; Emmel, B.B.; Lynch, S.K.

    1991-01-01

    The report is an overview of available country-specific data and modeling approaches for estimating global landfill methane. Current estimates of global landfill methane indicate that landfills account for between 4 and 15% of the global methane budget. The report describes an approach for using country-specific and field test data to develop a less uncertain estimate of global landfill methane. Development of enhanced emissions factors for landfills and other major sources of methane will improve the understanding of atmospheric chemistry and feedback effects, will target mitigation opportunities, and will ensure cost-effective mitigation strategies.

  10. A Revised Estimate of 20th Century Global Mean Sea Level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hay, C.; Morrow, E.; Kopp, R. E., III; Mitrovica, J. X.

    2014-12-01

    One of the primary goals of paleo-sea level research is to assess the stability of ice sheets and glaciers in warming climates. In this context, the 20th century may be thought of as the most recent, recorded, and studied of all past episodes of warming. Over the past decade, a consensus has emerged in the literature that 20th century global mean sea level (GMSL), inferred from tide gauge records, rose at a mean rate of 1.6-1.9 mm/yr. This sea-level rise can be attributed to multiple sources, including thermal expansion of the oceans, ice sheet and glacier mass flux, and anthropogenic changes in land water storage. The Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC summarized the estimated contributions of these sources over 1901-1990 and computed a total rate, using a bottom-up approach, of ~1.0 mm/yr, which falls significantly short of the rate inferred from tide gauge records. Using two independent probabilistic approaches that utilize models of glacial isostatic adjustment, ocean dynamics, and the sea-level fingerprints of rapid land-ice melt to analyze tide gauge records (Kalman smoothing and Gaussian process regression), we are able to close the 20th century sea-level budget and resolve the above enigma. Our revised estimate for the rate of GMSL rise during 1901-1990 is 1.1-1.3 mm/yr (90% credible interval). This value, which is ~20-30% less than previous estimates, suggests that the change in the GMSL rate from the 20th century to the last two decades (2.7 ± 0.4 mm/yr, consistent with past estimates) was greater than previous estimates. Moreover, since some forward projections of GMSL change into the next century are based in part on past estimates of GMSL change, our revised rate may impact projections of GMSL rise for the 21st century and beyond.

  11. Estimated global nitrogen deposition using NO2 column density

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lu, Xuehe; Jiang, Hong; Zhang, Xiuying; Liu, Jinxun; Zhang, Zhen; Jin, Jiaxin; Wang, Ying; Xu, Jianhui; Cheng, Miaomiao

    2013-01-01

    Global nitrogen deposition has increased over the past 100 years. Monitoring and simulation studies of nitrogen deposition have evaluated nitrogen deposition at both the global and regional scale. With the development of remote-sensing instruments, tropospheric NO2 column density retrieved from Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) and Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY) sensors now provides us with a new opportunity to understand changes in reactive nitrogen in the atmosphere. The concentration of NO2 in the atmosphere has a significant effect on atmospheric nitrogen deposition. According to the general nitrogen deposition calculation method, we use the principal component regression method to evaluate global nitrogen deposition based on global NO2 column density and meteorological data. From the accuracy of the simulation, about 70% of the land area of the Earth passed a significance test of regression. In addition, NO2 column density has a significant influence on regression results over 44% of global land. The simulated results show that global average nitrogen deposition was 0.34 g m−2 yr−1 from 1996 to 2009 and is increasing at about 1% per year. Our simulated results show that China, Europe, and the USA are the three hotspots of nitrogen deposition according to previous research findings. In this study, Southern Asia was found to be another hotspot of nitrogen deposition (about 1.58 g m−2 yr−1 and maintaining a high growth rate). As nitrogen deposition increases, the number of regions threatened by high nitrogen deposits is also increasing. With N emissions continuing to increase in the future, areas whose ecosystem is affected by high level nitrogen deposition will increase.

  12. ESTIMATE OF GLOBAL METHANE EMISSIONS FROM COAL MINES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Country-specific emissions of methane (CH4) from underground coal mines, surface coal mines, and coal crushing and transport operations are estimated for 1989. Emissions for individual countries are estimated by using two sets of regression equations (R2 values range from 0.56 to...

  13. 3D viscosity maps for Greenland and effect on GRACE mass balance estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Wal, Wouter; Xu, Zheng

    2016-04-01

    The GRACE satellite mission measures mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet. To correct for glacial isostatic adjustment numerical models are used. Although generally found to be a small signal, the full range of possible GIA models has not been explored yet. In particular, low viscosities due to a wet mantle and high temperatures due to the nearby Iceland hotspot could have a significant effect on GIA gravity rates. The goal of this study is to present a range of possible viscosity maps, and investigate the effect on GRACE mass balance estimates. Viscosity is derived using flow laws for olivine. Mantle temperature is computed from global seismology models, based on temperature derivatives for different mantle compositions. An indication for grain sizes is obtained by xenolith findings at a few locations. We also investigate the weakening effect of the presence of melt. To calculate gravity rates, we use a finite-element GIA model with the 3D viscosity maps and the ICE-5G loading history. GRACE mass balances for mascons in Greenland are derived with a least-squares inversion, using separate constraints for the inland and coastal areas in Greenland. Biases in the least-squares inversion are corrected using scale factors estimated from a simulation based on a surface mass balance model (Xu et al., submitted to The Cryosphere). Model results show enhanced gravity rates in the west and south of Greenland with 3D viscosity maps, compared to GIA models with 1D viscosity. The effect on regional mass balance is up to 5 Gt/year. Regional low viscosity can make present-day gravity rates sensitivity to ice thickness changes in the last decades. Therefore, an improved ice loading history for these time scales is needed.

  14. Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

    SciTech Connect

    Yuan, Wenping; Luo, Yiqi; Li, Xianglan; Liu, Shuguang; Yu, Guirui; Zhou, Tao; Bahn, Michael; Black, Andy; Desai, Ankur R.; Cescatti, Alessandro; Cook, David R.

    2011-12-01

    Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models still use a global constant BR largely due to the lack of a functional description for BR. In this study, we redefined BR to be ecosystem respiration rate at the mean annual temperature. To test the validity of this concept, we conducted a synthesis analysis using 276 site‐years of eddy covariance data, from 79 research sites located at latitudes ranging from ∼3°S to ∼70°N. Results showed that mean annual ER rate closely matches ER rate at mean annual temperature. Incorporation of site‐specific BR into global ER model substantially improved simulated ER compared to an invariant BR at all sites. These results confirm that ER at the mean annual

  15. Public Education about Globalization: The Role of the Mass Media.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foley, Griff

    1996-01-01

    Analyzes the media treatment of the 1996 Australian election to illustrate the power of the media to disseminate corporate propaganda and to persuade the public to accept the political and economic changes of globalization. (SK)

  16. Global distribution of soil organic carbon - Part 1: Masses and frequency distributions of SOC stocks for the tropics, permafrost regions, wetlands, and the world

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Köchy, M.; Hiederer, R.; Freibauer, A.

    2015-04-01

    The global soil organic carbon (SOC) mass is relevant for the carbon cycle budget and thus atmospheric carbon concentrations. We review current estimates of SOC stocks and mass (stock × area) in wetlands, permafrost and tropical regions and the world in the upper 1 m of soil. The Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) v.1.2 provides one of the most recent and coherent global data sets of SOC, giving a total mass of 2476 Pg when using the original values for bulk density. Adjusting the HWSD's bulk density (BD) of soil high in organic carbon results in a mass of 1230 Pg, and additionally setting the BD of Histosols to 0.1 g cm-3 (typical of peat soils), results in a mass of 1062 Pg. The uncertainty in BD of Histosols alone introduces a range of -56 to +180 Pg C into the estimate of global SOC mass in the top 1 m, larger than estimates of global soil respiration. We report the spatial distribution of SOC stocks per 0.5 arcminutes; the areal masses of SOC; and the quantiles of SOC stocks by continents, wetland types, and permafrost types. Depending on the definition of "wetland", wetland soils contain between 82 and 158 Pg SOC. With more detailed estimates for permafrost from the Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database (496 Pg SOC) and tropical peatland carbon incorporated, global soils contain 1325 Pg SOC in the upper 1 m, including 421 Pg in tropical soils, whereof 40 Pg occurs in tropical wetlands. Global SOC amounts to just under 3000 Pg when estimates for deeper soil layers are included. Variability in estimates is due to variation in definitions of soil units, differences in soil property databases, scarcity of information about soil carbon at depths > 1 m in peatlands, and variation in definitions of "peatland".

  17. Global fires after asteroid impact probably caused mass extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balcerak, Ernie

    2013-05-01

    About 66 million years ago, a mountain-sized asteroid hit what is now the Yucatan in Mexico at exactly the time of the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction. Evidence for the asteroid impact comes from sediments in the K-Pg boundary layer, but the details of the event, including what precisely caused the mass extinction, are still being debated.

  18. Species richness on coral reefs and the pursuit of convergent global estimates.

    PubMed

    Fisher, Rebecca; O'Leary, Rebecca A; Low-Choy, Samantha; Mengersen, Kerrie; Knowlton, Nancy; Brainard, Russell E; Caley, M Julian

    2015-02-16

    Global species richness, whether estimated by taxon, habitat, or ecosystem, is a key biodiversity metric. Yet, despite the global importance of biodiversity and increasing threats to it (e.g., we are no better able to estimate global species richness now than we were six decades ago. Estimates of global species richness remain highly uncertain and are often logically inconsistent. They are also difficult to validate because estimation of global species richness requires extrapolation beyond the number of species known. Given that somewhere between 3% and >96% of species on Earth may remain undiscovered, depending on the methods used and the taxa considered, such extrapolations, especially from small percentages of known species, are likely to be highly uncertain. An alternative approach is to estimate all species, the known and unknown, directly. Using expert taxonomic knowledge of the species already described and named, those already discovered but not yet described and named, and those still awaiting discovery, we estimate there to be 830,000 (95% credible limits: 550,000-1,330,000) multi-cellular species on coral reefs worldwide, excluding fungi. Uncertainty surrounding this estimate and its components were often strongly skewed toward larger values, indicating that many more species on coral reefs is more plausible than many fewer. The uncertainties revealed here should guide future research toward achieving convergence in global species richness estimates for coral reefs and other ecosystems via adaptive learning protocols whereby such estimates can be tested and improved, and their uncertainties reduced, as new knowledge is acquired.

  19. Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change.

    Treesearch

    Jay R. Malcolm; Adam Markham; Ronald P. Neilson; Michael. Oaraci

    2002-01-01

    Greefihouse-induced warming and resulting shifts in climatic zones may exceed the migration capabilities of some species. We used fourteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Global Vegetation Models (GVMs) to investigate possible migration rates required under CO2 doubled climatic forcing.

  20. Zero-Point Calibration for AGN Black-Hole Mass Estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peterson, B. M.; Onken, C. A.

    2004-01-01

    We discuss the measurement and associated uncertainties of AGN reverberation-based black-hole masses, since these provide the zero-point calibration for scaling relationships that allow black-hole mass estimates for quasars. We find that reverberation-based mass estimates appear to be accurate to within a factor of about 3.

  1. On the nature of the variability in the Martian thermospheric mass density: Results from the Mars Global Surveyor Electron Reflectometer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    England, S.; Lillis, R. J.

    2011-12-01

    Knowledge of Mars' thermospheric mass density (~120--200 km altitude) is important for understanding the current state and evolution of the Martian atmosphere and for spacecraft such as the upcoming MAVEN mission that will fly through this region every orbit. Global-scale atmospheric models have been shown thus far to do an inconsistent job of matching mass density observations at these altitudes, especially on the nightside. Thus there is a clear need for a data-driven estimate of the mass density in this region. Given the wide range of conditions and locations over which these must be defined, the dataset of thermospheric mass densities derived from energy and angular distributions of super-thermal electrons measured by the MAG/ER experiment on Mars Global Surveyor, spanning 4 full Martian years, is an extremely valuable resource that can be used to enhance our prediction of these densities beyond what is given by such global-scale models. Here we present an empirical model of the thermospheric density structure based on the MAG/ER dataset. Using this new model, we assess the global-scale response of the thermosphere to dust storms in the lower atmosphere and show that this varies with latitude. Further, we examine the short- and longer-term variability of the thermospheric density and show that it exhibits a complex behavior with latitude and season that is indicative of both atmospheric conditions at lower altitudes and possible lower atmosphere wave sources.

  2. The global aerosol-cloud first indirect effect estimated using MODIS, MERRA, and AeroCom

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCoy, D. T.; Bender, F. A.-M.; Mohrmann, J. K. C.; Hartmann, D. L.; Wood, R.; Grosvenor, D. P.

    2017-02-01

    Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) represent a significant source of forcing uncertainty in global climate models (GCMs). Estimates of radiative forcing due to ACI in Fifth Assessment Report range from -0.5 to -2.5 W m-2. A portion of this uncertainty is related to the first indirect, or Twomey, effect whereby aerosols act as nuclei for cloud droplets to condense upon. At constant liquid water content this increases the number of cloud droplets (Nd) and thus increases the cloud albedo. In this study we use remote-sensing estimates of Nd within stratocumulus regions in combination with state-of-the-art aerosol reanalysis from Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA2) to diagnose how aerosols affect Nd. As in previous studies, Nd is related to sulfate mass through a power law relationship. The slope of the log-log relationship between Nd and SO4 in maritime stratocumulus is found to be 0.31, which is similar to the range of 0.2-0.8 from previous in situ studies and remote-sensing studies in the pristine Southern Ocean. Using preindustrial emissions models, the change in Nd between preindustrial and present day is estimated. Nd is inferred to have more than tripled in some regions. Cloud properties from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are used to estimate the radiative forcing due to this change in Nd. The Twomey effect operating in isolation is estimated to create a radiative forcing of -0.97 ± 0.23 W m-2 relative to the preindustrial era.

  3. The initial mass function and global rates of mass, momentum, and energy input to the interstellar medium via stellar winds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Van Buren, D.

    1985-01-01

    Published observational data are compiled and analyzed, using theoretical stellar-evolution models to determine the global rates of mass, momentum, and energy injected into the interstellar medium (ISM) by stellar winds. Expressions derived include psi = 0.00054 x (M to the -1.03) stars formed/sq kpc yr log M (where M is the initial mass function in solar mass units) and mass-loss = (2 x 10 to the -13th) x (L to the 1.25) solar mass/yr (with L in solar luminosity units). It is found that the wind/supernova injection of energy into the ISM and the mass loss from stars of 5 solar mass or more are approximately balanced by the dissipation of energy by cloud-cloud collisions and the formation of stars, respectively.

  4. The initial mass function and global rates of mass, momentum, and energy input to the interstellar medium via stellar winds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Van Buren, D.

    1985-01-01

    Published observational data are compiled and analyzed, using theoretical stellar-evolution models to determine the global rates of mass, momentum, and energy injected into the interstellar medium (ISM) by stellar winds. Expressions derived include psi = 0.00054 x (M to the -1.03) stars formed/sq kpc yr log M (where M is the initial mass function in solar mass units) and mass-loss = (2 x 10 to the -13th) x (L to the 1.25) solar mass/yr (with L in solar luminosity units). It is found that the wind/supernova injection of energy into the ISM and the mass loss from stars of 5 solar mass or more are approximately balanced by the dissipation of energy by cloud-cloud collisions and the formation of stars, respectively.

  5. Global Intercomparison of 12 Land Surface Heat Flux Estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jimenez, C.; Prigent, C.; Mueller, B.; Seneviratne, S. I.; McCabe, M. F.; Wood, E. F.; Rossow, W. B.; Balsamo, G.; Betts, A. K.; Dirmeyer, P. A.; hide

    2011-01-01

    A global intercomparison of 12 monthly mean land surface heat flux products for the period 1993-1995 is presented. The intercomparison includes some of the first emerging global satellite-based products (developed at Paris Observatory, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, University of California Berkeley, University of Maryland, and Princeton University) and examples of fluxes produced by reanalyses (ERA-Interim, MERRA, NCEP-DOE) and off-line land surface models (GSWP-2, GLDAS CLM/ Mosaic/Noah). An intercomparison of the global latent heat flux (Q(sub le)) annual means shows a spread of approx 20 W/sq m (all-product global average of approx 45 W/sq m). A similar spread is observed for the sensible (Q(sub h)) and net radiative (R(sub n)) fluxes. In general, the products correlate well with each other, helped by the large seasonal variability and common forcing data for some of the products. Expected spatial distributions related to the major climatic regimes and geographical features are reproduced by all products. Nevertheless, large Q(sub le)and Q(sub h) absolute differences are also observed. The fluxes were spatially averaged for 10 vegetation classes. The larger Q(sub le) differences were observed for the rain forest but, when normalized by mean fluxes, the differences were comparable to other classes. In general, the correlations between Q(sub le) and R(sub n) were higher for the satellite-based products compared with the reanalyses and off-line models. The fluxes were also averaged for 10 selected basins. The seasonality was generally well captured by all products, but large differences in the flux partitioning were observed for some products and basins.

  6. A Global Approach to Parameter Estimation of Chaotic Dynamical Systems.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-12-01

    ily of complex quadratic polynomials . We demonstrate how to exploit the complexity of global geometrical phase space structures of nonlinear 2.1 The...Quadratic Family dynamical systems and their dependence on parameter Given any complex quadratic polynomial p(:) = a:.! + variations in order to obtain...b•2 + r) tional maps obtained from Newton’s method on complex , 2 cubic polynomials . We show how to transform the esti- -(aZ + 2abz + b-’ + c) - b

  7. Global Intercomparison of 12 Land Surface Heat Flux Estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jimenez, C.; Prigent, C.; Mueller, B.; Seneviratne, S. I.; McCabe, M. F.; Wood, E. F.; Rossow, W. B.; Balsamo, G.; Betts, A. K.; Dirmeyer, P. A.; Fisher, J. B.; Jung, M.; Kanamitsu, M.; Reichle, R. H.; Reichstein, M.; Rodell, M.; Sheffield, J.; Tu, K.; Wang, K.

    2011-01-01

    A global intercomparison of 12 monthly mean land surface heat flux products for the period 1993-1995 is presented. The intercomparison includes some of the first emerging global satellite-based products (developed at Paris Observatory, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, University of California Berkeley, University of Maryland, and Princeton University) and examples of fluxes produced by reanalyses (ERA-Interim, MERRA, NCEP-DOE) and off-line land surface models (GSWP-2, GLDAS CLM/ Mosaic/Noah). An intercomparison of the global latent heat flux (Q(sub le)) annual means shows a spread of approx 20 W/sq m (all-product global average of approx 45 W/sq m). A similar spread is observed for the sensible (Q(sub h)) and net radiative (R(sub n)) fluxes. In general, the products correlate well with each other, helped by the large seasonal variability and common forcing data for some of the products. Expected spatial distributions related to the major climatic regimes and geographical features are reproduced by all products. Nevertheless, large Q(sub le)and Q(sub h) absolute differences are also observed. The fluxes were spatially averaged for 10 vegetation classes. The larger Q(sub le) differences were observed for the rain forest but, when normalized by mean fluxes, the differences were comparable to other classes. In general, the correlations between Q(sub le) and R(sub n) were higher for the satellite-based products compared with the reanalyses and off-line models. The fluxes were also averaged for 10 selected basins. The seasonality was generally well captured by all products, but large differences in the flux partitioning were observed for some products and basins.

  8. Data assimilation and driver estimation for the Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model using the Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morozov, Alexey V.; Ridley, Aaron J.; Bernstein, Dennis S.; Collins, Nancy; Hoar, Timothy J.; Anderson, Jeffrey L.

    2013-11-01

    This paper proposes a differential inflation scheme and applies this technique to driver estimation for the Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM) using the Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF), which is a part of the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). Driver estimation using EAKF is first demonstrated on a linear example and then applied to GITM. The Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) neutral mass density measurements are assimilated into a biased version of GITM, and the solar flux index, F10.7, is estimated. Although the estimate of F10.7 obtained using DART does not converge to the measured values, the converged values are shown to drive the GITM output close to CHAMP measurements. In order to prevent the ensemble spread from converging to zero, the state and driver estimates are inflated. In particular, the F10.7 estimate is inflated to have a constant variance. It is shown that EAKF with differential inflation reduces the model bias from 73% down to 7% along the CHAMP satellite path when compared to the biased GITM output obtained without using data assimilation. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) density measurements are used to validate the data assimilation performance at locations different from measurement locations. It is shown that the bias at GRACE locations is decreased from 76% down to 52% as compared to not using data assimilation, showing that model estimation of the thermosphere is improved globally.

  9. Strategies for rapid global earthquake impact estimation: the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, D.J.

    2013-01-01

    This chapter summarizes the state-of-the-art for rapid earthquake impact estimation. It details the needs and challenges associated with quick estimation of earthquake losses following global earthquakes, and provides a brief literature review of various approaches that have been used in the past. With this background, the chapter introduces the operational earthquake loss estimation system developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) known as PAGER (for Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response). It also details some of the ongoing developments of PAGER’s loss estimation models to better supplement the operational empirical models, and to produce value-added web content for a variety of PAGER users.

  10. Seasonal low-degree changes in terrestrial water mass load from global GNSS measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meyrath, Thierry; van Dam, Tonie; Collilieux, Xavier; Rebischung, Paul

    2017-04-01

    Large-scale mass redistribution in the terrestrial water storage (TWS) leads to changes in the low-degree spherical harmonic coefficients of the Earth's surface mass density field. Studying these low-degree fluctuations is an important task that contributes to our understanding of continental hydrology. In this study, we use global GNSS measurements of vertical and horizontal crustal displacements that we correct for atmospheric and oceanic effects, and use a set of modified basis functions similar to Clarke et al. (Geophys J Int 171:1-10, 2007) to perform an inversion of the corrected measurements in order to recover changes in the coefficients of degree-0 (hydrological mass change), degree-1 (centre of mass shift) and degree-2 (flattening of the Earth) caused by variations in the TWS over the period January 2003-January 2015. We infer from the GNSS-derived degree-0 estimate an annual variation in total continental water mass with an amplitude of (3.49 ± 0.19) × 103 Gt and a phase of 70°± 3° (implying a peak in early March), in excellent agreement with corresponding values derived from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) water storage model that amount to (3.39 ± 0.10) × 103 Gt and 71° ± 2°, respectively. The degree-1 coefficients we recover from GNSS predict annual geocentre motion (i.e. the offset change between the centre of common mass and the centre of figure) caused by changes in TWS with amplitudes of 0.69 ± 0.07 mm for GX, 1.31 ± 0.08 mm for GY and 2.60 ± 0.13 mm for GZ. These values agree with GLDAS and estimates obtained from the combination of GRACE and the output of an ocean model using the approach of Swenson et al. (J Geophys Res 113(B8), 2008) at the level of about 0.5, 0.3 and 0.9 mm for GX, GY and GZ, respectively. Corresponding degree-1 coefficients from SLR, however, generally show higher variability and predict larger amplitudes for GX and GZ. The results we obtain for the degree-2 coefficients from GNSS are slightly

  11. Estimating the Period and Q of the Chandler Wobble from mass variations.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nastula, Jolanta; Gross, Richard

    2013-04-01

    The free Chandler wobble is the largest component of the observed polar motion. The period of the Chandler wobble and quality factor Q depend on the internal structure and rheology of the Earth. There is quite good agreement in empirical determination and theoretical estimations of the Chandler wobble period but there is still large dispersions of the Q values. One of the methods to assess the value of the period and Q of the Chandler wobble is to determine those values that minimize the power within the Chandler band of the difference between observed and modeled polar motion excitation. Modeling of the polar motion excitation requires information on geophysical fluids distribution. Only recent investigations using atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological excitation computed for the period spanning from 1962 to 2010 shown the value of Q is about 111. Here we estimate the period and Q of the Chandler values on the basis of that method using direct observations of the excitation caused by mass variations as determined from approximately 25 years of SLR data from five geodetic satellites and from GRACE time varying gravitational field. Atmosphere, ocean, and hydrology models are also used to model the excitation caused by both mass and motion variations within these global geophysical fluids.

  12. On the Global Transport of Moisture: Comparison of Different Estimators

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haskins, R.; Fetzer, E.; Barnett, T.; Tyree, M.; Roeckner, E.

    1996-01-01

    An intercomparison is made between vertically integrated water vapor flux estimates from the NASA reanalysis product, and from two versions of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced only by observed sea surface temperature (SST). The period of comparison was from March 1985-February 1991 plus data from the U.S. flood in 1993.

  13. The global and local stellar mass assembly histories of galaxies from the MaNGA survey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ibarra-Medel, Hétor J.; Sánchez,, Sebastián F.; Avila-Reese, Vladimir; Hernández-Toledo, Héctor M., J.; González, J. Jesús; Drory, Niv; Bundy, Kevin; Bizyaev, Dmitry; Cano-Díaz, Mariana; Malanushenko, Elena; Pan, Kaike; Roman-Lopes, Alexandre; Thomas, Daniel

    2016-06-01

    By means of the fossil record method implemented through Pipe3D we reconstruct the global and radial stellar mass growth histories (MGHs) of a large sample of galaxies in the mass range 10^{8.5}M⊙-10^{11.5}M⊙ from the MaNGA survey. We find that: (1) The main driver of the global MGHs is mass, with more massive galaxies assembling their masses earlier (downsizing). (2) For most galaxies in their late evolutionary stages, the innermost regions formed earlier than the outermost ones (inside-out). This behaviour is stronger for blue/late-type galaxies.

  14. Supermassive Black Hole Masses and Global Properties of Disk Galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castillo, Y. S.; Funes, J. G.; Díaz, R. J.

    2006-06-01

    Different scaling laws are known for the mass of supermassive black holes (M_{BH}): M_{BH}-σ M_{BH}-M_{Bulge}; M_{BH}-M_{DM}. We have reviewed these correlations for 17 disk galaxies and tried to find any correlation between M_{BH} and other disk properties (HI and H_2 masses, far infrared luminosity, star formation rate, etc.). The sample was taken from Marconi and Hunt (2003). For these galaxies we have done a search in the literature for the following properties: A) in the nucleus: star formation rates, and luminosities in Hα ; B) in the bulge: luminosity in B-band; C) in the disk: HI and H_2 total masses, total luminosities in X-ray, B band and far infrared, and total star formation rate. In this work we present the compiled data from the literature and the plots of M_{BH} against galaxy HI total mass, M_{BH} against galaxy H_2 total mass, and M_{BH} against disk blue luminosity. We did not find any evident correlation between the M_{BH} and the properties of the disk.

  15. Uncertainty Estimation of Global Precipitation Measurement through Objective Validation Strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    KIM, H.; Utsumi, N.; Seto, S.; Oki, T.

    2014-12-01

    Since Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has been launched in 1997 as the first satellite mission dedicated to measuring precipitation, the spatiotemporal gaps of precipitation observation have been filled significantly. On February 27th, 2014, Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) satellite has been launched as a core observatory of Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), an international multi-satellite mission aiming to provide the global three hourly map of rainfall and snowfall. In addition to Ku-band, Ka-band radar is newly equipped, and their combination is expected to introduce higher precision than the precipitation measurement of TRMM/PR. In this study, the GPM level-2 orbit products are evaluated comparing to various precipitation observations which include TRMM/PR, in-situ data, and ground radar. In the preliminary validation over intercross orbits of DPR and TRMM, Ku-band measurements in both satellites shows very close spatial pattern and intensity, and the DPR is capable to capture broader range of precipitation intensity than of the TRMM. Furthermore, we suggest a validation strategy based on 'objective classification' of background atmospheric mechanisms. The Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) and auxiliary datasets (e.g., tropical cyclone best track) is used to objectively determine the types of precipitation. Uncertainty of abovementioned precipitation products is quantified as their relative differences and characterized for different precipitation mechanism. Also, it is discussed how the uncertainty affects the synthesis of TRMM and GPM for a long-term satellite precipitation observation records which is internally consistent.

  16. Estimated effects of the vertical structure of atmospheric mass on the time-variable geoid

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swenson, Sean; Wahr, John

    2002-09-01

    The GRACE satellite mission is designed to map the Earth's gravity field at a resolution of a few hundred kilometers every 30 days beginning in 2002. At these timescales, much of the change in the gravity field may be attributed to processes involving the redistribution of water on the surface of the Earth. Contributions from continental water storage, the oceans, and the atmosphere will all be present in the time-varying gravity solutions. Isolating the hydrological and oceanographic signals will first require the removal of the atmospheric component of the gravity field estimates provided by GRACE. The vertical distribution of mass in the atmosphere is typically neglected when calculating the atmospheric gravity signal. We examine the accuracy of this approximation, as well as the accuracies of models which determine idealized atmospheric vertical structure from surface values of temperature and pressure. Using isobaric geopotential height data from a global forecast center to characterize the true atmospheric density distribution, we compute an exact atmospheric gravity signal with which to compare the gravity signal of each of these models. In addition, we examine the effects of including the aspherical component of the Earth's shape when calculating the atmospheric component of the gravity field. Because gravity estimates from GRACE will have limited spatial resolution, we average our results over regions of 200 to 500 km. At these length scales, our results show that using models based solely on surface data can introduce errors in the time variable surface mass signal inferred from GRACE as large as a few millimeters equivalent water thickness, with a global RMS of about 1 mm.

  17. Considerations for estimating the 20th century trend in global mean sea level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamlington, B. D.; Thompson, P. R.

    2015-05-01

    Recent efforts in reconstructing historical sea level change have led to a range of published estimates for the global mean sea level trend over the last century. Disagreement in these estimates can be attributed to two factors: (1) differences in analysis and/or reconstruction techniques and (2) differences in tide gauge selection and quality control of the data. Here the impact of tide gauge selection is explored by calculating global mean trends using three different tide gauge data sets that have been utilized in recent reconstruction studies. The inclusion of tide gauge records that are affected by unresolved internal variability and/or unaccounted for vertical land motion are found to significantly impact the estimates of the long-term trend in global mean sea level. In conclusion, several guidelines are presented regarding the selection of tide gauges for use in historical reconstructions focused on estimating the 20th century global mean sea level trend.

  18. Estimation of Subdaily Polar Motion with the Global Positioning System During the Spoch '92 Campaign

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ibanez-Meier, R.; Freedman, A. P.; Herring, T. A.; Gross, R. S.; Lichten, S. M.; Lindqwister, U. J.

    1994-01-01

    Data collected over six days from a worldwide Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking network during the Epoch '92 campaign are used to estimate variations of the Earth's pole position every 30 minutes.

  19. Global Energetics in Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aschwanden, Markus J.

    2017-08-01

    We present a statistical study of the energetics of coronal mass ejections (CME) and compare it with the magnetic, thermal, and nonthermal energy dissipated in flares. The physical parameters of CME speeds, mass, and kinetic energies are determined with two different independent methods, i.e., the traditional white-light scattering method using LASCO/SOHO data, and the EUV dimming method using AIA/SDO data. We analyze all 860 GOES M- and X-class flare events observed during the first 7 years (2010-2016) of the SDO mission. The new ingredients of our CME modeling includes: (1) CME geometry in terms of a self-similar adiabatic expansion, (2) DEM analysis of CME mass over entire coronal temperature range, (3) deceleration of CME due to gravity force which controls the kinetic and potentail CME energy as a function of time, (4) the critical speed that controls eruptive and confined CMEs, (5) the relationship between the center-of-mass motion during EUV dimming and the leading edge motion observed in white-light coronagraphs. Novel results are: (1) Physical parameters obtained from both the EUV dimming and white-light method can be reconciled; (2) the equi-partition of CME kinetic and thermal flare energy; (3) the Rosner-Tucker-Vaiana scaling law. We find that the two methods in EUV and white-light wavelengths are highly complementary and yield more complete models than each method alone.

  20. Non-Tidal Non-Seasonal Oceanic Mass Redistribution Estimated from the TOPEX/Poseidon Observation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chao, Benjamin F.; Au, A. Y.; Chen, Jian-Li; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Topex/Poseidon altimetry data are used to estimate the non-tidal mass redistribution as a function of space-time. The goal is to study the contribution of ocean circulations in the geodynamic effects including Earth's rotational and gravitational variations. We examine the non-seasonal anomalies at monthly sampling rate over the T/P span of eight years, concentrating especially on interannual variabilities. Since the sea-surface height data obtained from altimetry is the combined effect of steric change (primarily thermal effect) and the mass flux, and because the former has zero contribution to the geodynamic effects, one needs to do a so-called steric correction by removing from the altimetry data the steric contributions. We achieve it using multiyear monthly sea-surface temperature maps, together with monthly "climatology" for mixed-layer depth maps for mean-months of the year. We analyze both sets of the altimetry data and the steric correction data using the empirical orthogonal function/principal component analysis (in which we take care of issues associated with the area-weighting and non-zero mean), and examine the most important modes, either globally or regionally. In particular, the ENSO in the tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans exhibits the most prominent pattern. The net mass transport after the steric correction can then be compared with: (1) ocean general circulation model outputs for the same period of time (such as from POCM-4B); (2) non-atmospheric Earth rotation variations obtained from space geodesy data and atmospheric angular momentum data; (3) non-atmospheric low-degree gravitational variations from satellite-laser-ranging observations and global atmospheric data.

  1. Non-Tidal Non-Seasonal Oceanic Mass Redistribution Estimated from the TOPEX/Poseidon Observation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chao, Benjamin F.; Au, A. Y.; Chen, Jian-Li; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Topex/Poseidon altimetry data are used to estimate the non-tidal mass redistribution as a function of space-time. The goal is to study the contribution of ocean circulations in the geodynamic effects including Earth's rotational and gravitational variations. We examine the non-seasonal anomalies at monthly sampling rate over the T/P span of eight years, concentrating especially on interannual variabilities. Since the sea-surface height data obtained from altimetry is the combined effect of steric change (primarily thermal effect) and the mass flux, and because the former has zero contribution to the geodynamic effects, one needs to do a so-called steric correction by removing from the altimetry data the steric contributions. We achieve it using multiyear monthly sea-surface temperature maps, together with monthly "climatology" for mixed-layer depth maps for mean-months of the year. We analyze both sets of the altimetry data and the steric correction data using the empirical orthogonal function/principal component analysis (in which we take care of issues associated with the area-weighting and non-zero mean), and examine the most important modes, either globally or regionally. In particular, the ENSO in the tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans exhibits the most prominent pattern. The net mass transport after the steric correction can then be compared with: (1) ocean general circulation model outputs for the same period of time (such as from POCM-4B); (2) non-atmospheric Earth rotation variations obtained from space geodesy data and atmospheric angular momentum data; (3) non-atmospheric low-degree gravitational variations from satellite-laser-ranging observations and global atmospheric data.

  2. Estimates of global dew collection potential on artificial surfaces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vuollekoski, H.; Vogt, M.; Sinclair, V. A.; Duplissy, J.; Järvinen, H.; Kyrö, E.-M.; Makkonen, R.; Petäjä, T.; Prisle, N. L.; Räisänen, P.; Sipilä, M.; Ylhäisi, J.; Kulmala, M.

    2015-01-01

    The global potential for collecting usable water from dew on an artificial collector sheet was investigated by utilizing 34 years of meteorological reanalysis data as input to a dew formation model. Continental dew formation was found to be frequent and common, but daily yields were mostly below 0.1 mm. Nevertheless, some water-stressed areas such as parts of the coastal regions of northern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula show potential for large-scale dew harvesting, as the yearly yield may reach up to 100 L m-2 for a commonly used polyethylene foil. Statistically significant trends were found in the data, indicating overall changes in dew yields of between ±10% over the investigated time period.

  3. A Global Ocean State Estimate at the Last Glacial Maximum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amrhein, D. E.; Wunsch, C. I.

    2015-12-01

    Many features of Earth's climate at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 20,000 years ago) remain a mystery, including the role of the ocean circulation in transporting thermal energy, salinity, and other tracers. Most efforts at reconstructing the ocean state during the LGM have relied either upon integrations of general circulation models under prescribed LGM boundary conditions or the interpretation of climate proxy records without explicit physical constraints. Here we describe a global, primitive equation simulation of the LGM ocean with boundary conditions (wind, surface air temperature, and other atmospheric variables) and mixing parameters derived by a least-squares fit of an ocean general circulation model to observations of deep ocean stable isotopes and sea surface temperatures at the LGM.

  4. Estimated global exportations of Zika virus infections via travellers from Brazil from 2014 to 2015.

    PubMed

    Quam, Mikkel B; Wilder-Smith, Annelies

    2016-06-01

    The ongoing Zika pandemic in Latin America illustrates a potential source for further globalized spread. Here, we assessed global travel-related Zika virus exportations from Brazil during the initial year of the epidemic. Similar to subsequent national notifications, we estimated 584-1786 exported Zika cases from Brazil occurred September 2014-August 2015.

  5. Similar negative impacts of temperature on global wheat yield estimated by three independent methods

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global wheat production has recently been assessed with different methods, scaling and aggregation approaches. Here we show that grid-based simulations, point-based simulations, and statistical regressions produce similar estimates of temperature ...

  6. New global fire emission estimates and evaluation of volatile organic compounds

    Treesearch

    C. Wiedinmyer; L. K. Emmons; S. K. Akagi; R. J. Yokelson; J. J. Orlando; J. A. Al-Saadi; A. J. Soja

    2010-01-01

    A daily, high-resolution, global fire emissions model has been built to estimate emissions from open burning for air quality modeling applications: The Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN version 1). The model framework uses daily fire detections from the MODIS instruments and updated emission factors, specifically for speciated non-methane organic compounds (NMOC). Global...

  7. Implications of a large global root biomass for carbon sink estimates and for soil carbon dynamics.

    PubMed

    Robinson, David

    2007-11-07

    Recent evidence suggests that significantly more plant carbon (C) is stored below ground than existing estimates indicate. This study explores the implications for biome C pool sizes and global C fluxes. It predicts a root C pool of at least 268 Pg, 68% larger than previously thought. Although still a low-precision estimate (owing to the uncertainties of biome-scale measurements), a global root C pool this large implies stronger land C sinks, particularly in tropical and temperate forests, shrubland and savanna. The land sink predicted from revised C inventories is 2.7 Pg yr(-1). This is 0.1 Pg yr(-1) larger than current estimates, within the uncertainties associated with global C fluxes, but conflicting with a smaller sink (2.4 Pg yr(-1)) estimated from C balance. Sink estimates derived from C inventories and C balance match, however, if global soil C is assumed to be declining by 0.4-0.7% yr(-1), rates that agree with long-term regional rates of soil C loss. Either possibility, a stronger land C sink or widespread soil C loss, argues that these features of the global C cycle should be reassessed to improve the accuracy and precision of C flux and pool estimates at both global and biome scales.

  8. Assimilation of GRACE-derived oceanic mass distributions with a global ocean circulation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saynisch, J.; Bergmann-Wolf, I.; Thomas, M.

    2015-02-01

    To study the sub-seasonal distribution and generation of ocean mass anomalies, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observations of daily and monthly resolution are assimilated into a global ocean circulation model with an ensemble-based Kalman-Filter technique. The satellite gravimetry observations are processed to become time-variable fields of ocean mass distribution. Error budgets for the observations and the ocean model's initial state are estimated which contain the full covariance information. The consistency of the presented approach is demonstrated by increased agreement between GRACE observations and the ocean model. Furthermore, the simulations are compared with independent observations from 54 bottom pressure recorders. The assimilation improves the agreement to high-latitude recorders by up to 2 hPa. The improvements are caused by assimilation-induced changes in the atmospheric wind forcing, i.e., quantities not directly observed by GRACE. Finally, the use of the developed Kalman-Filter approach as a destriping filter to remove artificial noise contaminating the GRACE observations is presented.

  9. On the nature of the variability of the Martian thermospheric mass density: Results from electron reflectometry with Mars Global Surveyor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    England, Scott L.; Lillis, Robert J.

    2012-02-01

    Knowledge of Mars' thermospheric mass density is important for understanding the current state and evolution of the Martian atmosphere, and for spacecraft such as the upcoming MAVEN mission that will fly through this region on every orbit. Global-scale atmospheric models have been shown thus far to do an inconsistent job of matching the mass density observations at these altitudes, especially on the nightside. Thus, there is a clear need for a data-driven estimate of the mass density in this region. Given the wide range of conditions and locations over which this must be defined, the data set of thermospheric mass densities derived from energy and angular distributions of super-thermal electrons measured by the MAG/ER experiment on Mars Global Surveyor, spanning 4 full Martian years, is an extremely valuable resource. Here we present an empirical model of the thermospheric density structure of this data set. Using this new model, we assess the global-scale response of the thermosphere to dust storms in the lower atmosphere and show that this varies with both latitude and dust opacity. Further, we examine the short-term variability of the thermospheric density and show that it exhibits a repeatable behavior with latitude and season that is indicative of atmospheric wave activity seen in the lower thermosphere. This short-term variability is consistently highest in the southern hemisphere, peaking around perihelion, which may have significant implications for studies of atmospheric escape.

  10. Estimation of global network statistics from incomplete data.

    PubMed

    Bliss, Catherine A; Danforth, Christopher M; Dodds, Peter Sheridan

    2014-01-01

    Complex networks underlie an enormous variety of social, biological, physical, and virtual systems. A profound complication for the science of complex networks is that in most cases, observing all nodes and all network interactions is impossible. Previous work addressing the impacts of partial network data is surprisingly limited, focuses primarily on missing nodes, and suggests that network statistics derived from subsampled data are not suitable estimators for the same network statistics describing the overall network topology. We generate scaling methods to predict true network statistics, including the degree distribution, from only partial knowledge of nodes, links, or weights. Our methods are transparent and do not assume a known generating process for the network, thus enabling prediction of network statistics for a wide variety of applications. We validate analytical results on four simulated network classes and empirical data sets of various sizes. We perform subsampling experiments by varying proportions of sampled data and demonstrate that our scaling methods can provide very good estimates of true network statistics while acknowledging limits. Lastly, we apply our techniques to a set of rich and evolving large-scale social networks, Twitter reply networks. Based on 100 million tweets, we use our scaling techniques to propose a statistical characterization of the Twitter Interactome from September 2008 to November 2008. Our treatment allows us to find support for Dunbar's hypothesis in detecting an upper threshold for the number of active social contacts that individuals maintain over the course of one week.

  11. Estimation of Global Network Statistics from Incomplete Data

    PubMed Central

    Bliss, Catherine A.; Danforth, Christopher M.; Dodds, Peter Sheridan

    2014-01-01

    Complex networks underlie an enormous variety of social, biological, physical, and virtual systems. A profound complication for the science of complex networks is that in most cases, observing all nodes and all network interactions is impossible. Previous work addressing the impacts of partial network data is surprisingly limited, focuses primarily on missing nodes, and suggests that network statistics derived from subsampled data are not suitable estimators for the same network statistics describing the overall network topology. We generate scaling methods to predict true network statistics, including the degree distribution, from only partial knowledge of nodes, links, or weights. Our methods are transparent and do not assume a known generating process for the network, thus enabling prediction of network statistics for a wide variety of applications. We validate analytical results on four simulated network classes and empirical data sets of various sizes. We perform subsampling experiments by varying proportions of sampled data and demonstrate that our scaling methods can provide very good estimates of true network statistics while acknowledging limits. Lastly, we apply our techniques to a set of rich and evolving large-scale social networks, Twitter reply networks. Based on 100 million tweets, we use our scaling techniques to propose a statistical characterization of the Twitter Interactome from September 2008 to November 2008. Our treatment allows us to find support for Dunbar's hypothesis in detecting an upper threshold for the number of active social contacts that individuals maintain over the course of one week. PMID:25338183

  12. Anthropogenic CO2 estimates in the Southern Ocean: Storage partitioning in the different water masses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pardo, Paula C.; Pérez, F. F.; Khatiwala, S.; Ríos, A. F.

    2014-01-01

    The role of the Southern Ocean (SO) remains a key issue in our understanding of the global carbon cycle and for predicting future climate change. A number of recent studies suggest that 30 to 40% of ocean uptake of anthropogenic carbon (CANT) occurs in the SO, accompanied by highly efficient transport of CANT by intermediate-depth waters out of that region. In contrast, storage of CANT in deep and bottom layers is still an open question. Significant discrepancies can be found between results from several indirect techniques and ocean models. Even though reference methodologies state that CANT concentrations in deep and bottom layers of the SO are negligible, recent results from tracer-based methods and ocean models as well as accurate measurements of 39Ar, CCl4 and CFCs along the continental slope and in the Antarctic deep and bottom waters contradict this conclusion. The role of the SO in the uptake, storage and transport of CANT has proved to be really important for the global ocean and there is a need for agreement between the different techniques. A CO2-data-based ("back-calculation") method, the CT0 method, was developed with the aim of obtaining more accurate CANT concentration and inventory estimates in the SO region (south of 45°S). Data from the GLODAP (Global Ocean Data Analysis Project) and CARINA databases were used. The CT0 method tries to reduce at least two of the main caveats attributed to the back-calculation methods: the need for a better definition of water mass mixing and, most importantly, the unsteady state of the air-sea CO2 disequilibrium (ΔCdis) term. Water mass mixing was computed on the basis of results from an extended Optimum Multi-Parametric (eOMP) analysis applied to the main water masses of the SO. Recently published parameterizations were used to obtain more reliable values of ΔCdis and also of preformed alkalinity. The variability of the ΔCdis term (δCdis) was approximated using results from an ocean carbon cycle model

  13. Estimating inter-annual runoff variability from global hydroclimatic data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peel, Murray; McMahon, Thomas; Finlayson, Brian

    2016-04-01

    Inter-annual variability of runoff, measured by the coefficient of variation of annual runoff (RCv), is an important constraint on reservoir yield and storage size for water resources management. For a catchment with a fixed storage capacity, any increase in reservoir inflow RCv translates into reduced reservoir yield for a given reliability of supply. Developing an improved understanding of the physical influences on inter-annual runoff variability around the world and how these may change in future is of vital importance to achieving on-going robust water and catchment management. Here we take a large-scale Comparative Hydrology approach to develop empirical relationships for RCv using a global hydroclimatic data set of 588 catchments. Empirical RCv relationships are developed for the World and catchments experiencing predominantly (≥75% catchment area) tropical, arid, temperate or cold climate types. The RCv relationships are developed specifically using non-streamflow based predictor variables so they can be used for predicting RCv in ungauged basins (the PUB problem - Prediction in Ungauged Basins) and or ungauged climates (the PUC problem - Prediction in Ungauged Climates) if past or future projections of the required predictor variables are available. Empirical relationship predictor variables are based on precipitation, evaporative demand, vegetation and topography. Key variables that contribute to explaining RCv in each relationship will be assessed to identify the dominant drivers of RCv and how the contribution of those drivers varies between regions and climate types, with particular focus on inter-annual climate variability.

  14. Global surface density of water mass variations by using a two-step inversion by cumulating daily satellite gravity information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramillien, Guillaume; Frappart, Frédéric; Seoane, Lucia

    2016-04-01

    We propose a new method to produce time series of global maps of surface mass variations by progressive integration of daily geopotential variations measured by orbiting satellites. In the case of the GRACE mission, these geopotential variations can be determined from very accurate inter-satellite K-Band Range Rate (KBRR) measurements of 5-second daily orbits. In particular, the along-track gravity contribution of hydrological mass changes is extracted by removing de-aliasing models for static field, atmosphere, oceans mass variations (including periodical tides), as well as polar movements. Our determination of surface mass sources is composed of two successive dependent Kalman filter stages. The first one consists of reducing the satellite-based potential anomalies by adjusting the longest spatial wavelengths (i.e., low-degree spherical harmonics lower than 2). In the second stage, the residual potential anomalies from the previous stage are used to recover surface mass density changes - in terms of Equivalent-Water Height (EWH) - over a global network of juxtaposed triangular elements. These surface tiles of ~100,000 km x km (or equivalently 330 km by 330 km) are defined to be of equal areas over the terrestrial sphere. However they can be adapted to the local geometry of the surface mass. Our global approach was tested by inverting geopotential data, and successfully applied to estimate time-varying surface mass densities from real GRACE-based residuals. This strategy of combined Kalman filter-type inversions can also be useful for exploring the possibility of improving time and space resolutions for ocean and land studies that would be hopefully brought by future low altitude geodetic missions.

  15. Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) Model: A New Method for Estimating the Global Dietary Supply of Nutrients.

    PubMed

    Smith, Matthew R; Micha, Renata; Golden, Christopher D; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Myers, Samuel S

    2016-01-01

    Insufficient data exist for accurate estimation of global nutrient supplies. Commonly used global datasets contain key weaknesses: 1) data with global coverage, such as the FAO food balance sheets, lack specific information about many individual foods and no information on micronutrient supplies nor heterogeneity among subnational populations, while 2) household surveys provide a closer approximation of consumption, but are often not nationally representative, do not commonly capture many foods consumed outside of the home, and only provide adequate information for a few select populations. Here, we attempt to improve upon these datasets by constructing a new model--the Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) model--to estimate nutrient availabilities for 23 individual nutrients across 225 food categories for thirty-four age-sex groups in nearly all countries. Furthermore, the model provides historical trends in dietary nutritional supplies at the national level using data from 1961-2011. We determine supplies of edible food by expanding the food balance sheet data using FAO production and trade data to increase food supply estimates from 98 to 221 food groups, and then estimate the proportion of major cereals being processed to flours to increase to 225. Next, we estimate intake among twenty-six demographic groups (ages 20+, both sexes) in each country by using data taken from the Global Dietary Database, which uses nationally representative surveys to relate national averages of food consumption to individual age and sex-groups; for children and adolescents where GDD data does not yet exist, average calorie-adjusted amounts are assumed. Finally, we match food supplies with nutrient densities from regional food composition tables to estimate nutrient supplies, running Monte Carlo simulations to find the range of potential nutrient supplies provided by the diet. To validate our new method, we compare the GENuS estimates of nutrient supplies against independent

  16. Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) Model: A New Method for Estimating the Global Dietary Supply of Nutrients

    PubMed Central

    Golden, Christopher D.; Mozaffarian, Dariush

    2016-01-01

    Insufficient data exist for accurate estimation of global nutrient supplies. Commonly used global datasets contain key weaknesses: 1) data with global coverage, such as the FAO food balance sheets, lack specific information about many individual foods and no information on micronutrient supplies nor heterogeneity among subnational populations, while 2) household surveys provide a closer approximation of consumption, but are often not nationally representative, do not commonly capture many foods consumed outside of the home, and only provide adequate information for a few select populations. Here, we attempt to improve upon these datasets by constructing a new model—the Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) model—to estimate nutrient availabilities for 23 individual nutrients across 225 food categories for thirty-four age-sex groups in nearly all countries. Furthermore, the model provides historical trends in dietary nutritional supplies at the national level using data from 1961–2011. We determine supplies of edible food by expanding the food balance sheet data using FAO production and trade data to increase food supply estimates from 98 to 221 food groups, and then estimate the proportion of major cereals being processed to flours to increase to 225. Next, we estimate intake among twenty-six demographic groups (ages 20+, both sexes) in each country by using data taken from the Global Dietary Database, which uses nationally representative surveys to relate national averages of food consumption to individual age and sex-groups; for children and adolescents where GDD data does not yet exist, average calorie-adjusted amounts are assumed. Finally, we match food supplies with nutrient densities from regional food composition tables to estimate nutrient supplies, running Monte Carlo simulations to find the range of potential nutrient supplies provided by the diet. To validate our new method, we compare the GENuS estimates of nutrient supplies against independent

  17. Global Estimate of Seasonality in Scales of Oceanic Turbulence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uchida, T.; Abernathey, R. P.

    2016-02-01

    Wavenumber spectral analysis is a powerful method for characterizing the properties of ocean turbulence. Here we calculate seasonally and regionally resolved wavenumber power spectra of sea-surface temperature (SST), sea-surface height (SSH), and surface eddy kinetic energy (EKE) from the high resolution ocean component of a CESM global climate model. Until now there has not been a comprehensive analysis of ocean mesoscale turbulence in this new category of model. Furthermore, this study provides a test bed for future work on infrared satellite observations. The ocean component model (POP) has 0.1° degree resolution, mesoscale resolving at most latitudes. We have found seasonality in the spectra, which indicates the possibility of different turbulent schemes for each season. Although the spatial resolution of the model is not considered submesoscale resolving, we see that the seasonality originates in the submesoscale range (below 50km) in the power level of the spectra. On the other hand, it is difficult to extract physical meanings from the actual values of spectral slopes since the slopes depend on the wavelength range we fit the spectra due to numerical viscosity. Thus, we propose the possibility of mixed-layer instability (e.g. Callies et al. (2014)) playing an important role in the seasonality of submeso/mesoscale turbulence, and power levels are a more robust criteria in detecting seasonality than spectral slopes. We also compare the spectral analysis with structure function analysis. The strength of structure functions is that they can characterize scaling properties of turbulence even when the data has gaps or missing data as in infrared satellite observations of SST.

  18. Sensitivity of Simulated Global Ocean Carbon Flux Estimates to Forcing by Reanalysis Products

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gregg, Watson W.; Casey, Nancy W.; Rousseaux, Cecile S.

    2015-01-01

    Reanalysis products from MERRA, NCEP2, NCEP1, and ECMWF were used to force an established ocean biogeochemical model to estimate air-sea carbon fluxes (FCO2) and partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) in the global oceans. Global air-sea carbon fluxes and pCO2 were relatively insensitive to the choice of forcing reanalysis. All global FCO2 estimates from the model forced by the four different reanalyses were within 20% of in situ estimates (MERRA and NCEP1 were within 7%), and all models exhibited statistically significant positive correlations with in situ estimates across the 12 major oceanographic basins. Global pCO2 estimates were within 1% of in situ estimates with ECMWF being the outlier at 0.6%. Basin correlations were similar to FCO2. There were, however, substantial departures among basin estimates from the different reanalysis forcings. The high latitudes and tropics had the largest ranges in estimated fluxes among the reanalyses. Regional pCO2 differences among the reanalysis forcings were muted relative to the FCO2 results. No individual reanalysis was uniformly better or worse in the major oceanographic basins. The results provide information on the characterization of uncertainty in ocean carbon models due to choice of reanalysis forcing.

  19. A Probabilistic Mass Estimation Algorithm for a Novel 7- Channel Capacitive Sample Verification Sensor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wolf, Michael

    2012-01-01

    A document describes an algorithm created to estimate the mass placed on a sample verification sensor (SVS) designed for lunar or planetary robotic sample return missions. A novel SVS measures the capacitance between a rigid bottom plate and an elastic top membrane in seven locations. As additional sample material (soil and/or small rocks) is placed on the top membrane, the deformation of the membrane increases the capacitance. The mass estimation algorithm addresses both the calibration of each SVS channel, and also addresses how to combine the capacitances read from each of the seven channels into a single mass estimate. The probabilistic approach combines the channels according to the variance observed during the training phase, and provides not only the mass estimate, but also a value for the certainty of the estimate. SVS capacitance data is collected for known masses under a wide variety of possible loading scenarios, though in all cases, the distribution of sample within the canister is expected to be approximately uniform. A capacitance-vs-mass curve is fitted to this data, and is subsequently used to determine the mass estimate for the single channel s capacitance reading during the measurement phase. This results in seven different mass estimates, one for each SVS channel. Moreover, the variance of the calibration data is used to place a Gaussian probability distribution function (pdf) around this mass estimate. To blend these seven estimates, the seven pdfs are combined into a single Gaussian distribution function, providing the final mean and variance of the estimate. This blending technique essentially takes the final estimate as an average of the estimates of the seven channels, weighted by the inverse of the channel s variance.

  20. Estimation of the accuracy of methods for determining component masses for low-mass X-ray binary systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antokhina, E. A.; Petrov, V. S.; Cherepashchuk, A. M.

    2017-01-01

    Modern modeling of the population of low-mass X-ray binary systems containing black holes applying standard assumptions leads to a lack of agreement between the modeled and observed mass distributions for the optical components, with the observed masses being lower. This makes the task of estimating the systematic errors in the derived component masses due to imperfect models relevant. To estimate the influence of systematic errors in the derived masses of stars in X-ray binary systems, we considered two approximations for the tidally deformed star in a Roche model. Approximating the star as a sphere with a volume equal to that of the Roche lobe leads to slight overestimation of the equatorial rotational velocity V rot sin i, and hence to slight underestimation of the mass ratio q = M x / M v . Approximating the star as a flat, circular disk with constant local line profiles and a linear limb-darkening law (a classical rotational broadeningmodel) is an appreciably cruder approach, and leads to overestimation of V rot sin i by about 20%. In the case of high values of q = M x / M v , this approximation leads to substantial underestimation of the mass ratio q, which can reach several tens of percent. The mass of the optical star is overestimated by a factor of 1.5 in this case, while the mass of the black hole is changed only slightly. Since most estimates of component mass ratios for X-ray binary systems are carried out using a classical rotational broadening model for the lines, this leads to the need for appreciable corrections to (reductions of) previously published masses for the optical stars, which enhances the contradiction with the standard evolutionary scenario for low-mass X-ray binaries containing black holes.

  1. Estimation of the global average temperature with optimally weighted point gauges

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hardin, James W.; Upson, Robert B.

    1993-01-01

    This paper considers the minimum mean squared error (MSE) incurred in estimating an idealized Earth's global average temperature with a finite network of point gauges located over the globe. We follow the spectral MSE formalism given by North et al. (1992) and derive the optimal weights for N gauges in the problem of estimating the Earth's global average temperature. Our results suggest that for commonly used configurations the variance of the estimate due to sampling error can be reduced by as much as 50%.

  2. Global mean estimation using a self-organizing dual-zoning method for preferential sampling.

    PubMed

    Pan, Yuchun; Ren, Xuhong; Gao, Bingbo; Liu, Yu; Gao, YunBing; Hao, Xingyao; Chen, Ziyue

    2015-03-01

    Giving an appropriate weight to each sampling point is essential to global mean estimation. The objective of this paper was to develop a global mean estimation method with preferential samples. The procedure for this estimation method was to first zone the study area based on self-organizing dual-zoning method and then to estimate the mean according to stratified sampling method. In this method, spreading of points in both feature and geographical space is considered. The method is tested in a case study on the metal Mn concentrations in Jilin provinces of China. Six sample patterns are selected to estimate the global mean and compared with the global mean calculated by direct arithmetic mean method, polygon method, and cell method. The results show that the proposed method produces more accurate and stable mean estimates under different feature deviation index (FDI) values and sample sizes. The relative errors of the global mean calculated by the proposed method are from 0.14 to 1.47 % and they are the largest (4.83-8.84 %) by direct arithmetic mean method. At the same time, the mean results calculated by the other three methods are sensitive to the FDI values and sample sizes.

  3. Anthropogenic CO2 estimates in the Southern Ocean: storage partitioning in the different water masses.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pardo, P. C.; Pérez, F. F.; Velo, A.; Khatiwala, S.,; Ríos, A. F.

    2012-04-01

    One of the key issues in understanding the global carbon cycle and predicting future climate change is determining the role of the Southern Ocean (SO). Approximately, more than one third of the global anthropogenic CO2 (CANT) uptake occurs in the SO (18% of the global ocean area), where the coldest source waters involved in the meridional counterclockwise overturning circulation are formed. Nevertheless, the distributions of CANT in the SO obtained from models and data-based methods present huge differences. Little storage of CANT has usually been associated with Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) which is in contradiction with significant concentrations of CFCs observed along the continental slope and in Antarctic deep and bottom waters. The lack of accurate ocean carbon measurements could be the cause for hampering more exact CANT estimates. Besides, there is compelling evidence that sinking and ventilation in the SO is not only associated to the AABW but also to various less dense Antarctic waters located at intermediate and deep levels of the water column. In this study, data south of 45° S were chosen from GLODAP (http://cdiac.ornl.gov/oceans/glodap/Glodap_home.htm) and CARINA (http://store.pangaea.de/Projects/CARBOOCEAN/carina/index.htm) project databases (n=82792) in order to estimate CANT through different data-based methods. These methods go from the classical back-calculation methods (ΔC* and improved new ones taking into account the variability in the CO2 air-sea disequilibrium term) to TTD and TROCA methods. Results from an eOMP together with a volumetric census of the water masses within the SO serve as base for partitioning CANT storages in the more representative water masses of the SO. Thus, South Mode Water and Antarctic Intermediate Water account for the CANT storage in intermediate layers while North Atlantic Deep Waters and Circumpolar Deep Water are responsible for injecting CANT at deep layers. The contributions of AABW and Shelf Waters to the

  4. Estimations of global terrestrial carbon flux using bottom-up and top-down approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murakami, K.; Sasai, T.; Kato, S.; Saito, M.; Matsunaga, T.; Maksyutov, S. S.; Yokota, T.

    2016-12-01

    Estimating global terrestrial carbon fluxes with high accuracy is important to understand global environmental changes. Moreover the estimations of the global spatiotemporal distribution may contribute to the political and social activities. In order to reveal the present state of terrestrial carbon fluxes covering a wide and a decadal scale, using the satellite-based diagnostic biosphere model is suitable because of uniformly observing on the present global land surface condition. However the satellite-based diagnostic model can simulate the terrestrial carbon flux in only a few decadal periods and cannot calculate back to 100 years ago. Therefore the model estimations have the potential to underestimate the annual terrestrial carbon fluxes as a result of doing spin-up to the steady state. Because the steady state is a pre-industrial era, not present day, so the flux becomes to zero throughout the global scale. In this study, we optimized the spin-up time of the terrestrial biosphere model (BEAMS) in each sub continental region using estimations of carbon fluxes by the atmospheric transport model (GOSAT L4A global CO2 flux). First, we made the BEAMS steady state by the spin-up run for 10000 years, and then the carbon pools in the biomass and soil was adjusted to fit the GOSAT carbon flux. Significant improvement of the estimation accuracy was achieved by using the two satellite observation data (GOSAT as atmospheric information, and MODIS as land surface information). We evaluated our new carbon flux estimations on various spatial scales. Annual global carbon fluxes were indicated similar values between BEAMS, GOSAT L4A, and GCP estimations, and perhaps these may be reasonable. In a tropical regions that are low satellite observation data, the temporal patterns of the carbon flux was indicated various changes, so the accuracy of carbon fluxes in some regions remained a matter of discussion.

  5. Ionospheric Slant Total Electron Content Analysis Using Global Positioning System Based Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sparks, Lawrence C. (Inventor); Mannucci, Anthony J. (Inventor); Komjathy, Attila (Inventor)

    2017-01-01

    A method, system, apparatus, and computer program product provide the ability to analyze ionospheric slant total electron content (TEC) using global navigation satellite systems (GNSS)-based estimation. Slant TEC is estimated for a given set of raypath geometries by fitting historical GNSS data to a specified delay model. The accuracy of the specified delay model is estimated by computing delay estimate residuals and plotting a behavior of the delay estimate residuals. An ionospheric threat model is computed based on the specified delay model. Ionospheric grid delays (IGDs) and grid ionospheric vertical errors (GIVEs) are computed based on the ionospheric threat model.

  6. A Simple Estimate of the Mass of the Positron.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jones, Goronwy Tudor

    1993-01-01

    Discusses a small part of the final state of a high-energy neutrino interaction: a head-on collision of a positron and a stationary electron. Provides a bubble chamber picture and describes the resulting particle effects. Uses momentum to determine the mass of the positron. (MVL)

  7. A Simple Estimate of the Mass of the Positron.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jones, Goronwy Tudor

    1993-01-01

    Discusses a small part of the final state of a high-energy neutrino interaction: a head-on collision of a positron and a stationary electron. Provides a bubble chamber picture and describes the resulting particle effects. Uses momentum to determine the mass of the positron. (MVL)

  8. Skeletal Correlates for Body Mass Estimation in Modern and Fossil Flying Birds

    PubMed Central

    Field, Daniel J.; Lynner, Colton; Brown, Christian; Darroch, Simon A. F.

    2013-01-01

    Scaling relationships between skeletal dimensions and body mass in extant birds are often used to estimate body mass in fossil crown-group birds, as well as in stem-group avialans. However, useful statistical measurements for constraining the precision and accuracy of fossil mass estimates are rarely provided, which prevents the quantification of robust upper and lower bound body mass estimates for fossils. Here, we generate thirteen body mass correlations and associated measures of statistical robustness using a sample of 863 extant flying birds. By providing robust body mass regressions with upper- and lower-bound prediction intervals for individual skeletal elements, we address the longstanding problem of body mass estimation for highly fragmentary fossil birds. We demonstrate that the most precise proxy for estimating body mass in the overall dataset, measured both as coefficient determination of ordinary least squares regression and percent prediction error, is the maximum diameter of the coracoid’s humeral articulation facet (the glenoid). We further demonstrate that this result is consistent among the majority of investigated avian orders (10 out of 18). As a result, we suggest that, in the majority of cases, this proxy may provide the most accurate estimates of body mass for volant fossil birds. Additionally, by presenting statistical measurements of body mass prediction error for thirteen different body mass regressions, this study provides a much-needed quantitative framework for the accurate estimation of body mass and associated ecological correlates in fossil birds. The application of these regressions will enhance the precision and robustness of many mass-based inferences in future paleornithological studies. PMID:24312392

  9. Skeletal correlates for body mass estimation in modern and fossil flying birds.

    PubMed

    Field, Daniel J; Lynner, Colton; Brown, Christian; Darroch, Simon A F

    2013-01-01

    Scaling relationships between skeletal dimensions and body mass in extant birds are often used to estimate body mass in fossil crown-group birds, as well as in stem-group avialans. However, useful statistical measurements for constraining the precision and accuracy of fossil mass estimates are rarely provided, which prevents the quantification of robust upper and lower bound body mass estimates for fossils. Here, we generate thirteen body mass correlations and associated measures of statistical robustness using a sample of 863 extant flying birds. By providing robust body mass regressions with upper- and lower-bound prediction intervals for individual skeletal elements, we address the longstanding problem of body mass estimation for highly fragmentary fossil birds. We demonstrate that the most precise proxy for estimating body mass in the overall dataset, measured both as coefficient determination of ordinary least squares regression and percent prediction error, is the maximum diameter of the coracoid's humeral articulation facet (the glenoid). We further demonstrate that this result is consistent among the majority of investigated avian orders (10 out of 18). As a result, we suggest that, in the majority of cases, this proxy may provide the most accurate estimates of body mass for volant fossil birds. Additionally, by presenting statistical measurements of body mass prediction error for thirteen different body mass regressions, this study provides a much-needed quantitative framework for the accurate estimation of body mass and associated ecological correlates in fossil birds. The application of these regressions will enhance the precision and robustness of many mass-based inferences in future paleornithological studies.

  10. Estimating the Global Clinical Burden of Plasmodium falciparum Malaria in 2007

    PubMed Central

    Hay, Simon I.; Okiro, Emelda A.; Gething, Peter W.; Patil, Anand P.; Tatem, Andrew J.; Guerra, Carlos A.; Snow, Robert W.

    2010-01-01

    Background The epidemiology of malaria makes surveillance-based methods of estimating its disease burden problematic. Cartographic approaches have provided alternative malaria burden estimates, but there remains widespread misunderstanding about their derivation and fidelity. The aims of this study are to present a new cartographic technique and its application for deriving global clinical burden estimates of Plasmodium falciparum malaria for 2007, and to compare these estimates and their likely precision with those derived under existing surveillance-based approaches. Methods and Findings In seven of the 87 countries endemic for P. falciparum malaria, the health reporting infrastructure was deemed sufficiently rigorous for case reports to be used verbatim. In the remaining countries, the mapped extent of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria transmission was first determined. Estimates of the plausible incidence range of clinical cases were then calculated within the spatial limits of unstable transmission. A modelled relationship between clinical incidence and prevalence was used, together with new maps of P. falciparum malaria endemicity, to estimate incidence in areas of stable transmission, and geostatistical joint simulation was used to quantify uncertainty in these estimates at national, regional, and global scales. Combining these estimates for all areas of transmission risk resulted in 451 million (95% credible interval 349–552 million) clinical cases of P. falciparum malaria in 2007. Almost all of this burden of morbidity occurred in areas of stable transmission. More than half of all estimated P. falciparum clinical cases and associated uncertainty occurred in India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Myanmar (Burma), where 1.405 billion people are at risk. Recent surveillance-based methods of burden estimation were then reviewed and discrepancies in national estimates explored. When these cartographically derived national

  11. Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015.

    PubMed

    Cohen, Aaron J; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Anderson, H Ross; Frostad, Joseph; Estep, Kara; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Brunekreef, Bert; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Feigin, Valery; Freedman, Greg; Hubbell, Bryan; Jobling, Amelia; Kan, Haidong; Knibbs, Luke; Liu, Yang; Martin, Randall; Morawska, Lidia; Pope, C Arden; Shin, Hwashin; Straif, Kurt; Shaddick, Gavin; Thomas, Matthew; van Dingenen, Rita; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Vos, Theo; Murray, Christopher J L; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H

    2017-05-13

    Exposure to ambient air pollution increases morbidity and mortality, and is a leading contributor to global disease burden. We explored spatial and temporal trends in mortality and burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution from 1990 to 2015 at global, regional, and country levels. We estimated global population-weighted mean concentrations of particle mass with aerodynamic diameter less than 2·5 μm (PM2·5) and ozone at an approximate 11 km × 11 km resolution with satellite-based estimates, chemical transport models, and ground-level measurements. Using integrated exposure-response functions for each cause of death, we estimated the relative risk of mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and lower respiratory infections from epidemiological studies using non-linear exposure-response functions spanning the global range of exposure. Ambient PM2·5 was the fifth-ranking mortality risk factor in 2015. Exposure to PM2·5 caused 4·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 million to 4·8 million) deaths and 103·1 million (90·8 million 115·1 million) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2015, representing 7·6% of total global deaths and 4·2% of global DALYs, 59% of these in east and south Asia. Deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 increased from 3·5 million (95% UI 3·0 million to 4·0 million) in 1990 to 4·2 million (3·7 million to 4·8 million) in 2015. Exposure to ozone caused an additional 254 000 (95% UI 97 000-422 000) deaths and a loss of 4·1 million (1·6 million to 6·8 million) DALYs from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in 2015. Ambient air pollution contributed substantially to the global burden of disease in 2015, which increased over the past 25 years, due to population ageing, changes in non-communicable disease rates, and increasing air pollution in low-income and middle-income countries. Modest reductions in burden will occur

  12. Estimates of Regional Equilibrium Line Altitudes and Net Mass Balance from MODIS Imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shea, J. M.; Menounos, B.; Moore, R. D.

    2011-12-01

    Glacier mass balance is a key variable used to assess the health of glaciers and ice sheets. Estimates of glacier mass balance are required to model the dynamic response of glaciers and ice sheets to climate change, estimate sea-level contribution from surface melt, and document the response of glaciers to climate forcing. Annually resolved estimates of regional mass balance for mountain ranges is often inferred from a sparse network of ground-based measurements of mass balance for individual glaciers. Given that net mass balance is highly correlated with the annual equilibrium line altitude (ELA), we develop an automated approach to estimate the ELA, and by inference net mass balance, on large glaciers and icefields using MODIS 250 m imagery (MOD02QKM). We discriminate areas of bare ice and snow/firn using the product of MODIS' red (0.620 - 0.670 μ m) and near infrared (0.841 - 0.876 μ m) bands. To assess the skill in estimating glacier ELAs, we compare ELAs derived from (1) manual delineation and (2) unsupervised classification of the band product to ground-based observations of ELA and net mass balance at seven long term mass-balance monitoring sites in western North America (Gulkana, Wolverine, Lemon Creek, Taku, Place, Peyto, and South Cascade). Spatial and temporal variations in MODIS-derived ELAs provide an opportunity to validate regional mass-balance models, estimate surface melt contributions to sea-level rise, and examine the cryospheric response to climate change.

  13. Estimating the global volume of deeply recycled continental crust at continental collision zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scholl, D. W.; Huene, R. V.

    2006-12-01

    CRUSTAL RECYCLING AT OCEAN MARGINS: Large volumes of rock and sediment are missing from the submerged forearcs of ocean margin subduction zones--OMSZs. This observation means that (1) oceanic sediment is transported beneath the margin to either crustally underplate the coastal region or reach mantle depths, and that (2) the crust of the forearc is vertically thinned and horizontally truncated and the removed material transported toward the mantle. Transport of rock and sediment debris occurs in the subduction channel that separates the upper and lower plates. At OMSZs the solid-volume flux of recycling crustal material is estimated to be globally ~2.5 km3/yr (i.e., 2.5 Armstrong units or AU). The corresponding rate of forearc truncation (migration of the trench axis toward a fix reference on the continent) is a sluggish 2-3 km/Myr (about 1/50th the orthogonal convergence rate). Nonetheless during the past 2.5 Gyr (i.e., since the beginning of the Proterozoic) a volume of continental material roughly equal to the existing volume (~7 billion cubic km) has been recycled to the mantle at OMSZs. The amount of crust that has been destroyed is so large that recycling must have been a major factor creating the mapped rock pattern and age-fabric of continental crust. RECYCLING AT CONTINENT/ARC COLLISIONS: The rate at which arc magmatism globally adds juvenile crust to OMSZs has been commonly globally estimated at ~1 AU. But new geophysical and dating information from the Aleutian and IBM arcs imply that the addition rate is at least ~5 AU (equivalent to ~125 km3/Myr/km of arc). If the Armstrong posit is correct that since the early Archean a balance has existed between additions and losses of crust, then a recycling sink for an additional 2-3 AU of continental material must exist. As the exposure of exhumed masses of high P/T blueschist bodies documents that subcrustal streaming of continental material occurs at OMSZs, so does the occurrence of exhumed masses of UHP

  14. SPARTAN: a global network to evaluate and enhance satellite-based estimates of ground-level particulate matter for global health applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snider, G.; Weagle, C. L.; Martin, R. V.; van Donkelaar, A.; Conrad, K.; Cunningham, D.; Gordon, C.; Zwicker, M.; Akoshile, C.; Artaxo, P.; Anh, N. X.; Brook, J.; Dong, J.; Garland, R. M.; Greenwald, R.; Griffith, D.; He, K.; Holben, B. N.; Kahn, R.; Koren, I.; Lagrosas, N.; Lestari, P.; Ma, Z.; Vanderlei Martins, J.; Quel, E. J.; Rudich, Y.; Salam, A.; Tripathi, S. N.; Yu, C.; Zhang, Q.; Zhang, Y.; Brauer, M.; Cohen, A.; Gibson, M. D.; Liu, Y.

    2015-01-01

    Ground-based observations have insufficient spatial coverage to assess long-term human exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) at the global scale. Satellite remote sensing offers a promising approach to provide information on both short- and long-term exposure to PM2.5 at local-to-global scales, but there are limitations and outstanding questions about the accuracy and precision with which ground-level aerosol mass concentrations can be inferred from satellite remote sensing alone. A key source of uncertainty is the global distribution of the relationship between annual average PM2.5 and discontinuous satellite observations of columnar aerosol optical depth (AOD). We have initiated a global network of ground-level monitoring stations designed to evaluate and enhance satellite remote sensing estimates for application in health-effects research and risk assessment. This Surface PARTiculate mAtter Network (SPARTAN) includes a global federation of ground-level monitors of hourly PM2.5 situated primarily in highly populated regions and collocated with existing ground-based sun photometers that measure AOD. The instruments, a three-wavelength nephelometer and impaction filter sampler for both PM2.5 and PM10, are highly autonomous. Hourly PM2.5 concentrations are inferred from the combination of weighed filters and nephelometer data. Data from existing networks were used to develop and evaluate network sampling characteristics. SPARTAN filters are analyzed for mass, black carbon, water-soluble ions, and metals. These measurements provide, in a variety of regions around the world, the key data required to evaluate and enhance satellite-based PM2.5 estimates used for assessing the health effects of aerosols. Mean PM2.5 concentrations across sites vary by more than 1 order of magnitude. Our initial measurements indicate that the ratio of AOD to ground-level PM2.5 is driven temporally and spatially by the vertical profile in aerosol scattering. Spatially this ratio is

  15. Global surface mass time variations by using a two-step inversion for cumulating daily satellite gravity information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramillien, Guillaume; Frappart, Frappart; Seoane, Lucia

    2015-04-01

    We propose a new method to produce time series of global maps of surface mass variations by progressive integration of daily geopotential variations measured by orbiting satellites. In the case of the GRACE mission (2002 - 2012), these geopotential variations can be determined from very accurate inter-satellite K-Band Range Rate (KBRR) measurements of 5-second daily orbits. In particular, the along-track gravity contribution of hydrology is extracted by removing de-aliasing models for static field, atmosphere, oceans mass variations (including periodical tides), as well as polar movements. Our determination of surface mass sources consists of two successive dependent Kalman filter stages. The first one consists of reducing the satellite-based potential anomalies by adjusting the longest spatial wavelengths (i.e., low-degree spherical harmonics less than 5-6). In the second stage, the residual potential anomalies from the previous stage are used to recover surface mass density changes - in terms of Equivalent-Water Height (EWH) - over a global network of juxtaposed triangular elements. These surface tiles of ~40,000 km x km are imposed to be identical and homogeneously-distributed over the terrestrial sphere, however they can be adapted to the local geometry of the surface mass. Our global approach was tested by inverting simulated hydrology-related geopotential data, and successfully applied to estimate time-varying surface mass densities from real GRACE-based residuals. This strategy of combined Kalman filter-type inversions can also be useful for exploring the possibility of reaching better time and space resolutions for hydrology, that would be hopefully brought by future low altitude geodetic missions.

  16. EFFECTS OF BIASES IN VIRIAL MASS ESTIMATION ON COSMIC SYNCHRONIZATION OF QUASAR ACCRETION

    SciTech Connect

    Steinhardt, Charles L.

    2011-09-01

    Recent work using virial mass estimates and the quasar mass-luminosity plane has yielded several new puzzles regarding quasar accretion, including a sub-Eddington boundary (SEB) on most quasar accretion, near-independence of the accretion rate from properties of the host galaxy, and a cosmic synchronization of accretion among black holes of a common mass. We consider how these puzzles might change if virial mass estimation turns out to have a systematic bias. As examples, we consider two recent claims of mass-dependent biases in Mg II masses. Under any such correction, the surprising cosmic synchronization of quasar accretion rates and independence from the host galaxy remain. The slope and location of the SEB are very sensitive to biases in virial mass estimation, and various mass calibrations appear to favor different possible physical explanations for feedback between the central black hole and its environment. The alternative mass estimators considered do not simply remove puzzling quasar behavior, but rather replace it with new puzzles that may be more difficult to solve than those using current virial mass estimators and the Shen et al. catalog.

  17. Estimation of skeletal muscle mass from body creatine content

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pace, N.; Rahlmann, D. F.

    1982-01-01

    Procedures have been developed for studying the effect of changes in gravitational loading on skeletal muscle mass through measurements of the body creatine content. These procedures were developed for studies of gravitational scale effects in a four-species model, comprising the hamster, rat, guinea pig, and rabbit, which provides a sufficient range of body size for assessment of allometric parameters. Since intracellular muscle creatine concentration varies among species, and with age within a given species, the concentration values for metabolically mature individuals of these four species were established. The creatine content of the carcass, skin, viscera, smooth muscle, and skeletal muscle was determined for each species. In addition, the skeletal muscle mass of the major body components was determined, as well as the total and fat-free masses of the body and carcass, and the percent skeletal muscle in each. It is concluded that these procedures are particularly useful for studying the effect of gravitational loading on the skeletal muscle content of the animal carcass, which is the principal weight-bearing organ of the body.

  18. Estimation of skeletal muscle mass from body creatine content

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pace, N.; Rahlmann, D. F.

    1982-01-01

    Procedures have been developed for studying the effect of changes in gravitational loading on skeletal muscle mass through measurements of the body creatine content. These procedures were developed for studies of gravitational scale effects in a four-species model, comprising the hamster, rat, guinea pig, and rabbit, which provides a sufficient range of body size for assessment of allometric parameters. Since intracellular muscle creatine concentration varies among species, and with age within a given species, the concentration values for metabolically mature individuals of these four species were established. The creatine content of the carcass, skin, viscera, smooth muscle, and skeletal muscle was determined for each species. In addition, the skeletal muscle mass of the major body components was determined, as well as the total and fat-free masses of the body and carcass, and the percent skeletal muscle in each. It is concluded that these procedures are particularly useful for studying the effect of gravitational loading on the skeletal muscle content of the animal carcass, which is the principal weight-bearing organ of the body.

  19. Estimation of pairing correlations for nuclear mass table evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robledo, Luis; Bertsch, George

    2010-11-01

    Mean field models provide a well-justified theoretical approach to generate mass tables, but without some extension the energy misses the correlation energy associated with the restoration of broken symmetries such as angular momentum or particle number. The Lipkin-Nogami (LN) method is often used to treat the pairing correlation energy in mass table evaluations, mainly because of its simplicity. However, it has been found that in many nuclei pairing correlations are weak and the LN method, which is an approximation to the more sophisticated Particle Number Projection (PNP), fails. We propose an alternative to the LN method which can be safely applied in the regime of weak pairing correlations and is simpler than variation after projection (VAP) for the PNP. It is based on a Restricted VAP for PNP using the fluctuation on particle number as coordinate. We show that in the strong pairing correlation limit the LN method is recovered. The method is applied to the evaluation of the even-even nuclei mass table with the Gogny parametrization of the nuclear interaction.

  20. Examination of global correlations in ground deformation for terrestrial reference frame estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chin, T. M.; Abbondanza, C.; Argus, D. F.; Gross, R. S.; Heflin, M. B.; Parker, J. W.; Wu, X.

    2016-12-01

    The KALman filter for REFerence frames (KALREF, Wu et al. 2015) has been developed to produce terrestrial reference frame (TRF) solutions. TRFs consist of precise position coordinates and velocity vectors of terrestrial reference sites (with the geocenter as the origin) along with the Earth orientation parameters, and they are produced by combining decades worth of space geodetic data using site tie data. To perform the combination, KALREF relies on stochastic models of the geophysical processes that are causing the Earth's surface to deform and reference sites to be displaced. We are investigating application of the GRACE data to improve the KALREF stochastic models by determining spatial statistics of the deformation of the Earth's surface caused by mass loading. A potential target of improvement is the non-uniform distribution of the geodetic observation sites, which can introduce bias in TRF estimates of the geocenter. The global and relatively uniform coverage of the GRACE measurements is expected to be free of such bias and allow us to improve physical realism of the stochastic model. For such a goal, we examine the spatial correlations in ground deformation derived from several GRACE data sets.[Wu et al. 2015: Journal of Geophysical Research (Solid Earth) 120:3775-3802

  1. Large divergence of satellite and Earth system model estimates of global terrestrial CO2 fertilization

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, W. Kolby; Reed, Sasha C.; Cleveland, Cory C.; Ballantyne, Ashley P; Anderegg, William R. L.; Wieder, William R.; Liu, Yi Y; Running, Steven W.

    2015-01-01

    Atmospheric mass balance analyses suggest that terrestrial carbon (C) storage is increasing, partially abating the atmospheric [CO2] growth rate, although the continued strength of this important ecosystem service remains uncertain. Some evidence suggests that these increases will persist owing to positive responses of vegetation growth (net primary productivity; NPP) to rising atmospheric [CO2] (that is, ‘CO2 fertilization’). Here, we present a new satellite-derived global terrestrial NPP data set, which shows a significant increase in NPP from 1982 to 2011. However, comparison against Earth system model (ESM) NPP estimates reveals a significant divergence, with satellite-derived increases (2.8 ± 1.50%) less than half of ESM-derived increases (7.6  ±  1.67%) over the 30-year period. By isolating the CO2 fertilization effect in each NPP time series and comparing it against a synthesis of available free-air CO2 enrichment data, we provide evidence that much of the discrepancy may be due to an over-sensitivity of ESMs to atmospheric [CO2], potentially reflecting an under-representation of climatic feedbacks and/or a lack of representation of nutrient constraints. Our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects on NPP needs rapid improvement to enable more accurate projections of future C cycle–climate feedbacks; we contend that better integration of modelling, satellite and experimental approaches offers a promising way forward.

  2. Bottom-up uncertainty estimates of global ammonia emissions from global agricultural production systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beusen, A. H. W.; Bouwman, A. F.; Heuberger, P. S. C.; Van Drecht, G.; Van Der Hoek, K. W.

    Here we present an uncertainty analysis of NH 3 emissions from agricultural production systems based on a global NH 3 emission inventory with a 5×5 min resolution. Of all results the mean is given with a range (10% and 90% percentile). The uncertainty range for the global NH 3 emission from agricultural systems is 27-38 (with a mean of 32) Tg NH 3-N yr -1, N fertilizer use contributing 10-12 (11) Tg yr -1 and livestock production 16-27 (21) Tg yr -1. Most of the emissions from livestock production come from animal houses and storage systems (31-55%); smaller contributions come from the spreading of animal manure (23-38%) and grazing animals (17-37%). This uncertainty analysis allows for identifying and improving those input parameters with a major influence on the results. The most important determinants of the uncertainty related to the global agricultural NH 3 emission comprise four parameters (N excretion rates, NH 3 emission rates for manure in animal houses and storage, the fraction of the time that ruminants graze and the fraction of non-agricultural use of manure) specific to mixed and landless systems, and total animal stocks. Nitrogen excretion rates and NH 3 emission rates from animal houses and storage systems are shown consistently to be the most important parameters in most parts of the world. Input parameters for pastoral systems are less relevant. However, there are clear differences between world regions and individual countries, reflecting the differences in livestock production systems.

  3. Estimating initial contaminant mass based on fitting mass-depletion functions to contaminant mass discharge data: Testing method efficacy with SVE operations data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mainhagu, J.; Brusseau, M. L.

    2016-09-01

    The mass of contaminant present at a site, particularly in the source zones, is one of the key parameters for assessing the risk posed by contaminated sites, and for setting and evaluating remediation goals and objectives. This quantity is rarely known and is challenging to estimate accurately. This work investigated the efficacy of fitting mass-depletion functions to temporal contaminant mass discharge (CMD) data as a means of estimating initial mass. Two common mass-depletion functions, exponential and power functions, were applied to historic soil vapor extraction (SVE) CMD data collected from 11 contaminated sites for which the SVE operations are considered to be at or close to essentially complete mass removal. The functions were applied to the entire available data set for each site, as well as to the early-time data (the initial 1/3 of the data available). Additionally, a complete differential-time analysis was conducted. The latter two analyses were conducted to investigate the impact of limited data on method performance, given that the primary mode of application would be to use the method during the early stages of a remediation effort. The estimated initial masses were compared to the total masses removed for the SVE operations. The mass estimates obtained from application to the full data sets were reasonably similar to the measured masses removed for both functions (13 and 15% mean error). The use of the early-time data resulted in a minimally higher variation for the exponential function (17%) but a much higher error (51%) for the power function. These results suggest that the method can produce reasonable estimates of initial mass useful for planning and assessing remediation efforts.

  4. TRMM Science Highlights and 3-hr Quasi-global Precipitation Estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adler, Robert F.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has completed more than four years in orbit. A summary of research highlights will be presented focusing on application of TRMM data to topics ranging over climate analysis, improving forecasts, precipitation processes and non-precipitation applications. One focus of the talk will be the quasi-global TRMM real-time merged rainfall analysis with 3-hr resolution, which uses TRMM to calibrate estimates from other polar-orbit and geosynchronous satellites. These rainfall estimates provide useful information for applications for assimilation into numerical models and for hydrological studies. The status of precipitation estimates from different TRMM instruments and algorithms will be described. Monthly surface rainfall estimates over the ocean based on different instruments on TRMM currently differ by 20% in overall mean. In addition, time changes in global ocean rainfall between El Nino and La Nina conditions show differences between the active and passive microwave products. Improved versions of algorithms will shortly resolve most of these differences. The TRMM rainfall estimates are intercompared among themselves and with other estimates, including those of the standard, monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) analysis. A four-year TRMM rainfall climatology is presented, including anomaly fields related to the changing ENSO situation during the mission. The evolution of precipitation analysis incorporating Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) data on AQUA and ADEOS II and eventually data from the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) will also be described.

  5. Assessing the Impact of Vertical Land Motion on Twentieth Century Global Mean Sea Level Estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hamlington, B. D.; Thompson, P.; Hammond, W. C.; Blewitt, G.; Ray, R. D.

    2016-01-01

    Near-global and continuous measurements from satellite altimetry have provided accurate estimates of global mean sea level in the past two decades. Extending these estimates further into the past is a challenge using the historical tide gauge records. Not only is sampling nonuniform in both space and time, but tide gauges are also affected by vertical land motion (VLM) that creates a relative sea level change not representative of ocean variability. To allow for comparisons to the satellite altimetry estimated global mean sea level (GMSL), typically the tide gauges are corrected using glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. This approach, however, does not correct other sources of VLM that remain in the tide gauge record. Here we compare Global Positioning System (GPS) VLM estimates at the tide gauge locations to VLM estimates from GIA models, and assess the influence of non-GIA-related VLM on GMSL estimates. We find that the tide gauges, on average, are experiencing positive VLM (i.e., uplift) after removing the known effect of GIA, resulting in an increase of 0.2460.08 mm yr21 in GMSL trend estimates from 1900 to present when using GPS-based corrections. While this result is likely dependent on the subset of tide gauges used and the actual corrections used, it does suggest that non-GIA VLM plays a significant role in twentieth century estimates of GMSL. Given the relatively short GPS records used to obtain these VLM estimates, we also estimate the uncertainty in the GMSL trend that results from limited knowledge of non-GIA-related VLM.

  6. Assessing the Impact of Vertical Land Motion on Twentieth Century Global Mean Sea Level Estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hamlington, B. D.; Thompson, P.; Hammond, W. C.; Blewitt, G.; Ray, R. D.

    2016-01-01

    Near-global and continuous measurements from satellite altimetry have provided accurate estimates of global mean sea level in the past two decades. Extending these estimates further into the past is a challenge using the historical tide gauge records. Not only is sampling nonuniform in both space and time, but tide gauges are also affected by vertical land motion (VLM) that creates a relative sea level change not representative of ocean variability. To allow for comparisons to the satellite altimetry estimated global mean sea level (GMSL), typically the tide gauges are corrected using glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. This approach, however, does not correct other sources of VLM that remain in the tide gauge record. Here we compare Global Positioning System (GPS) VLM estimates at the tide gauge locations to VLM estimates from GIA models, and assess the influence of non-GIA-related VLM on GMSL estimates. We find that the tide gauges, on average, are experiencing positive VLM (i.e., uplift) after removing the known effect of GIA, resulting in an increase of 0.2460.08 mm yr21 in GMSL trend estimates from 1900 to present when using GPS-based corrections. While this result is likely dependent on the subset of tide gauges used and the actual corrections used, it does suggest that non-GIA VLM plays a significant role in twentieth century estimates of GMSL. Given the relatively short GPS records used to obtain these VLM estimates, we also estimate the uncertainty in the GMSL trend that results from limited knowledge of non-GIA-related VLM.

  7. Assessing the impact of vertical land motion on twentieth century global mean sea level estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamlington, B. D.; Thompson, P.; Hammond, W. C.; Blewitt, G.; Ray, R. D.

    2016-07-01

    Near-global and continuous measurements from satellite altimetry have provided accurate estimates of global mean sea level in the past two decades. Extending these estimates further into the past is a challenge using the historical tide gauge records. Not only is sampling nonuniform in both space and time, but tide gauges are also affected by vertical land motion (VLM) that creates a relative sea level change not representative of ocean variability. To allow for comparisons to the satellite altimetry estimated global mean sea level (GMSL), typically the tide gauges are corrected using glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. This approach, however, does not correct other sources of VLM that remain in the tide gauge record. Here we compare Global Positioning System (GPS) VLM estimates at the tide gauge locations to VLM estimates from GIA models, and assess the influence of non-GIA-related VLM on GMSL estimates. We find that the tide gauges, on average, are experiencing positive VLM (i.e., uplift) after removing the known effect of GIA, resulting in an increase of 0.24 ± 0.08 mm yr-1 in GMSL trend estimates from 1900 to present when using GPS-based corrections. While this result is likely dependent on the subset of tide gauges used and the actual corrections used, it does suggest that non-GIA VLM plays a significant role in twentieth century estimates of GMSL. Given the relatively short GPS records used to obtain these VLM estimates, we also estimate the uncertainty in the GMSL trend that results from limited knowledge of non-GIA-related VLM.

  8. Specific Mass Estimates for A Vapor Core Reactor With MHD

    SciTech Connect

    Knight, Travis; Smith, Blair; Anghaie, Samim

    2002-07-01

    This study investigated the development of a system concept for space power generation and nuclear electric propulsion based on a vapor core reactor (VCR) with magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) power conversion system, coupled to a magnetoplasma-dynamic (MPD) thruster. The VCR is a liquid-vapor core reactor concept operating with metallic uranium or uranium tetrafluoride (UF{sub 4}) vapor as the fissioning fuel and alkali metals or their fluorides as working fluid in a closed Rankine cycle with MHD energy conversion. Gaseous and liquid-vapor core reactors can potentially provide the highest reactor and cycle temperature among all existing or proposed fission reactor designs. This unique feature makes this reactor concept a very natural and attractive candidate for very high power (10 to 1000 MWe) and low specific mass (0.4 to 5 kg/kWe) nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) applications since the MHD output could be coupled with minimal power conditioning to MPD thrusters or other types of thruster for producing thrust at very high specific impulse (I{sub sp} 1500 to 10,000 s). The exceptional specific mass performance of an optimized VCRMHD- NEP system could lead to a dramatic reduction in the cost and duration of manned or robotic interplanetary as well as interstellar missions. The VCR-MHD-NEP system could enable very efficient Mars cargo transfers or short (<8 month) Mars round trips with less initial mass in low Earth orbit (IMLEO). The system could also enable highly efficient lunar cargo transfer and rapid missions to other destinations throughout the solar system. (authors)

  9. Finding the missing plastic -resolving the global mass (im)balance for plastic pollution in the ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilcox, C.; van Sebille, E.

    2016-02-01

    Several global studies have attempted to estimate the standing stock of plastic debris in the oceans at the global scale. However, recent work estimating the amount lost from land on an annual basis suggests that the standing stock should be several orders of magnitude larger than the global estimates. We investigate the role of coastal deposition within the first few weeks after plastic enters the ocean and very near its sources, one of the hypothesized sinks for the missing plastic in this mass balance. We utilize a continental scale dataset of plastics collected along Australia's coast and in the offshore regions together with models of plastic release and transport based on Lagrangian tracking to investigate the role of local deposition in the coastal environment. Our models predict that the vast majority of positively buoyant plastic is deposited within a very short distance from its release point, with only a small fraction escaping into the open ocean. These predictions match our coastal and offshore observations, providing clear evidence that this mechanism of immediate coastal deposition is, at least in part, driving the apparent mismatch between coastal emissions and the standing stock in the ocean.

  10. MASS STORAGE ESTIMATES FOR THE DIGITAL MAPPING AREA.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Light, Donald L.

    1983-01-01

    Modern computer technology offers cartographers the potential for transition from conventional film-oriented methods to digital techniques as the way of mapping in the future. Traditional methods utilizing silver halide aerial and lithographic films for storage are time proven, and film is a very high density archival storage media. In view of this, proponents of the digital era recognize that a breakthrough in mass storage technology may be required to attain a reasonable degree of computerization of the cartographic mapping and data management process.

  11. Towards an estimation of water masses formation areas from SMOS-based TS diagrams

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klockmann, Marlene; Sabia, Roberto; Fernandez-Prieto, Diego; Donlon, Craig; Font, Jordi

    2014-05-01

    Temperature-Salinity (TS) diagrams emphasize the mutual variability of ocean temperature and salinity values, relating them to the corresponding density. Canonically used in oceanography, they provide a means to characterize and trace ocean water masses. In [1], a first attempt to estimate surface-layer TS diagrams based on satellite measurements has been performed, profiting from the recent availability of spaceborne salinity data. In fact, the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS, [2]) and the Aquarius/SAC-D [3] satellite missions allow to study the dynamical patterns of Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) for the first time on a global scale. In [4], given SMOS and Aquarius salinity estimates, and by also using Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA, [5]) effort, experimental satellite-based TS diagrams have been routinely derived for the year 2011. They have been compared with those computed from ARGO-buoys interpolated fields, referring to a customised partition of the global ocean into seven regions, according to the water masses classification of [6]. In [7], moreover, besides using TS diagrams as a diagnostic tool to evaluate the temporal variation of SST and SSS (and their corresponding density) as estimated by satellite measurements, the emphasis was on the interpretation of the geographical deviations with respect to the ARGO baseline (aiming at distinguishing between the SSS retrieval errors and the additional information contained in the satellite data with respect to ARGO). In order to relate these mismatches to identifiable oceanographic structures and processes, additional satellite datasets of ocean currents, evaporation/precipitation fluxes, and wind speed have been super-imposed. Currently, the main focus of the study deals with the exploitation of these TS diagrams as a prognostic tool to derive water masses formation areas. Firstly, following the approach described in [8], the surface

  12. Glaciers. Attribution of global glacier mass loss to anthropogenic and natural causes.

    PubMed

    Marzeion, Ben; Cogley, J Graham; Richter, Kristin; Parkes, David

    2014-08-22

    The ongoing global glacier retreat is affecting human societies by causing sea-level rise, changing seasonal water availability, and increasing geohazards. Melting glaciers are an icon of anthropogenic climate change. However, glacier response times are typically decades or longer, which implies that the present-day glacier retreat is a mixed response to past and current natural climate variability and current anthropogenic forcing. Here we show that only 25 ± 35% of the global glacier mass loss during the period from 1851 to 2010 is attributable to anthropogenic causes. Nevertheless, the anthropogenic signal is detectable with high confidence in glacier mass balance observations during 1991 to 2010, and the anthropogenic fraction of global glacier mass loss during that period has increased to 69 ± 24%.

  13. Combining satellite observations and reanalysis energy transports to estimate global net surface energy fluxes 1985-2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Chunlei; Allan, Richard P.; Berrisford, Paul; Mayer, Michael; Hyder, Patrick; Loeb, Norman; Smith, Doug; Vidale, Pier-Luigi; Edwards, John M.

    2015-09-01

    Two methods are developed to estimate net surface energy fluxes based upon satellite-derived reconstructions of radiative fluxes at the top of atmosphere and the atmospheric energy tendencies and transports from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Method 1 applies the mass-adjusted energy divergence from ERA-Interim, while method 2 estimates energy divergence based upon the net energy difference at the top of atmosphere and the surface from ERA-Interim. To optimize the surface flux and its variability over ocean, the divergences over land are constrained to match the monthly area mean surface net energy flux variability derived from a simple relationship between the surface net energy flux and the surface temperature change. The energy divergences over the oceans are then adjusted to remove an unphysical residual global mean atmospheric energy divergence. The estimated net surface energy fluxes are compared with other data sets from reanalysis and atmospheric model simulations. The spatial correlation coefficients of multiannual means between the estimations made here and other data sets are all around 0.9. There are good agreements in area mean anomaly variability over the global ocean, but discrepancies in the trend over the eastern Pacific are apparent.

  14. Estimating nutrient loadings using chemical mass balance approach.

    PubMed

    Jain, C K; Singhal, D C; Sharma, M K

    2007-11-01

    The river Hindon is one of the important tributaries of river Yamuna in western Uttar Pradesh (India) and carries pollution loads from various municipal and industrial units and surrounding agricultural areas. The main sources of pollution in the river include municipal wastes from Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar and Ghaziabad urban areas and industrial effluents of sugar, pulp and paper, distilleries and other miscellaneous industries through tributaries as well as direct inputs. In this paper, chemical mass balance approach has been used to assess the contribution from non-point sources of pollution to the river. The river system has been divided into three stretches depending on the land use pattern. The contribution of point sources in the upper and lower stretches are 95 and 81% respectively of the total flow of the river while there is no point source input in the middle stretch. Mass balance calculations indicate that contribution of nitrate and phosphate from non-point sources amounts to 15.5 and 6.9% in the upper stretch and 13.1 and 16.6% in the lower stretch respectively. Observed differences in the load along the river may be attributed to uncharacterized sources of pollution due to agricultural activities, remobilization from or entrainment of contaminated bottom sediments, ground water contribution or a combination of these sources.

  15. Global energy gradients and size in colonial organisms: worker mass and worker number in ant colonies.

    PubMed

    Kaspari, Michael

    2005-04-05

    Body mass shapes processes from cell metabolism to community dynamics. Little is known, however, about how the average body mass of individuals varies among ecological communities. Ants alter colony mass by independently changing worker mass and/or worker number. In a survey of 49 ecosystems from tundra to tropical rainforest, average worker mass and worker number were uncorrelated (r(s) = 0.2, P > 0.14) and varied 100-fold. Data supported the hypothesis that higher mean monthly temperatures, T, reduce worker mass by increasing metabolic costs during worker development. In contrast, worker number was unimodal over a 1,000-fold gradient of net primary productivity (NPP, g of carbon per m2 per yr), a measure of organic carbon available to consumers. At the lowest levels of NPP colonies appeared to be carbon-limited; above 60 g of carbon per m2 per yr average worker number decreased to a global low. This decline in worker number with increasing NPP supports the hypothesis that abundant carbon ameliorates the Achilles heel of small taxa in competition with large taxa: their relatively high metabolic demands. Higher predation rates in resource-rich environments may also play a role in limiting worker number. In all, about half the global variation in worker mass and number was accounted for by gradients of NPP and T. Changes in global temperature and rainfall may thus mold gradients of ectotherm size, with consequences for the structure and function of the ecosystems.

  16. A New Equation to Estimate Muscle Mass from Creatinine and Cystatin C.

    PubMed

    Kim, Sun-wook; Jung, Hee-Won; Kim, Cheol-Ho; Kim, Kwang-il; Chin, Ho Jun; Lee, Hajeong

    2016-01-01

    With evaluation for physical performance, measuring muscle mass is an important step in detecting sarcopenia. However, there are no methods to estimate muscle mass from blood sampling. To develop a new equation to estimate total-body muscle mass with serum creatinine and cystatin C level, we designed a cross-sectional study with separate derivation and validation cohorts. Total body muscle mass and fat mass were measured using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) in 214 adults aged 25 to 84 years who underwent physical checkups from 2010 to 2013 in a single tertiary hospital. Serum creatinine and cystatin C levels were also examined. Serum creatinine was correlated with muscle mass (P < .001), and serum cystatin C was correlated with body fat mass (P < .001) after adjusting glomerular filtration rate (GFR). After eliminating GFR, an equation to estimate total-body muscle mass was generated and coefficients were calculated in the derivation cohort. There was an agreement between muscle mass calculated by the novel equation and measured by DXA in both the derivation and validation cohort (P < .001, adjusted R2 = 0.829, β = 0.95, P < .001, adjusted R2 = 0.856, β = 1.03, respectively). The new equation based on serum creatinine and cystatin C levels can be used to estimate total-body muscle mass.

  17. A New Equation to Estimate Muscle Mass from Creatinine and Cystatin C

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Cheol-Ho; Kim, Kwang-il; Chin, Ho Jun; Lee, Hajeong

    2016-01-01

    Background With evaluation for physical performance, measuring muscle mass is an important step in detecting sarcopenia. However, there are no methods to estimate muscle mass from blood sampling. Methods To develop a new equation to estimate total-body muscle mass with serum creatinine and cystatin C level, we designed a cross-sectional study with separate derivation and validation cohorts. Total body muscle mass and fat mass were measured using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) in 214 adults aged 25 to 84 years who underwent physical checkups from 2010 to 2013 in a single tertiary hospital. Serum creatinine and cystatin C levels were also examined. Results Serum creatinine was correlated with muscle mass (P < .001), and serum cystatin C was correlated with body fat mass (P < .001) after adjusting glomerular filtration rate (GFR). After eliminating GFR, an equation to estimate total-body muscle mass was generated and coefficients were calculated in the derivation cohort. There was an agreement between muscle mass calculated by the novel equation and measured by DXA in both the derivation and validation cohort (P < .001, adjusted R2 = 0.829, β = 0.95, P < .001, adjusted R2 = 0.856, β = 1.03, respectively). Conclusion The new equation based on serum creatinine and cystatin C levels can be used to estimate total-body muscle mass. PMID:26849842

  18. How does mass loading impact local versus global control on dayside reconnection?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, B.; Brambles, O. J.; Wiltberger, M.; Lotko, W.; Ouellette, J. E.; Lyon, J. G.

    2016-03-01

    This paper investigates the effects of magnetospheric mass loading on the control of dayside magnetic reconnection using global magnetospheric simulations. The study iys motivated by a recent debate on whether the integrated dayside magnetic reconnection rate is solely controlled by local processes (local-control theory) or global merging processes (global-control theory). The local-control theory suggests that the integrated dayside reconnection rate is controlled by the local plasma parameters. The global-control theory argues that the integrated rate is determined by the net force acting on the flow in the magnetosheath rather than the local microphysics. Controlled numerical simulations using idealized ionospheric outflow specifications suggest a possible mixed-control theory, that is, (1) a small amount of mass loading at the dayside magnetopause only redistributes local reconnection rate without a significant change in the integrated reconnection rate and (2) a large amount of mass loading reduces both local reconnection rates and the integrated reconnection rate on the dayside. The transition between global-control- and local-control-dominated regimes depends on (but not limited to) the source region, the amount, the location, and the spatial extension of the mass loading at the dayside magnetopause.

  19. Estimating the global surface area of rivers and streams using satellite imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, George; Pavelsky, Tamlin

    2017-04-01

    Global observational assessments of river and stream systems are based largely on gauge station data, which are fragmented and often limited to country-level statistics. This limitation severely impedes our understanding of global-scale hydrologic, geomorphic, and biogeochemical fluvial processes. In contrast, satellite remote sensing data provide a globally-consistent and spatially-continuous tool for studying rivers. Here we present a novel method estimate the total surface area of all rivers and stream globally using measurements from the recently-developed Global River Widths from Landsat (GRWL) database and field surveys. The surface area of rivers and streams is a key model parameter in global evaluations of greenhouse gas emissions from inland waters. Preliminary analysis suggests that rivers occupy a total area of 80 thousand square kilometers, or 0.58% of Earth's land surface. This result is 30% greater than the previous best estimate that is based on digital elevation models and gauge station measurements. Compared to previous regional assessments, we find that rivers and streams occupy a greater proportion of the land surface in the arctic and in the tropics, and a lower proportion of land surface in the United States and in Europe. Our results suggest that current estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from inland waters should be revised upwards to account for the greater abundance of river and stream surface area.

  20. Progress and challenges in the estimation of the global energy balance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wild, Martin

    2017-02-01

    While enormous progress in the determination of the global energy fluxes in and out of the climate system was made in the past decades due to the installation of sophisticated space-born observation systems, substantial discrepancies remained in the estimated and simulated surface energy budgets, as they cannot be directly measured from space. The increasing availability of accurate surface observations, improvements in the satellite retrievals of surface fluxes and model advancement, however, lead to a recent convergence of independent estimates on some of the global mean surface energy balance components to within a few Wm-2. This suggests that we are approaching a stage where we are not only confident in the magnitudes of the global annual mean energy balance components at the TOA, but increasingly also at the surface. Consensus emerges on a global mean surface downward shortwave flux near 185 Wm-2, as well as global mean surface downward and upward longwave fluxes slightly above 340 Wm-2 and below 400 Wm-2, respectively. Taking into account remaining uncertainties in the surface albedo, this implies a surface absorbed shortwave radiation near or somewhat above 160 Wm-2, which leaves an atmospheric shortwave absorption of nearly 80 Wm-2, considering a total shortwave absorption of 240 Wm-2 in the global climate system. Thus, 2/3 of the absorption of shortwave radiation in the climate system takes place at the surface, 1/3 in the atmosphere. Given the above estimates, the global mean surface net radiation (surface radiation balance) appears to be around 105 Wm-2. The partitioning of this radiative energy at the Earth's surface into sensible and latent heat is only weekly constrained by direct observations and is still afflicted with considerable uncertainties. The best estimate of global mean surface net radiation near 105 Wm-2 promoted here should, however, enable a consistent representation of the magnitudes of the global energy and water cycles within their

  1. Volcanism, Impacts and Mass Extinctions: A case study of the Deccan Traps and its global effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, G.

    2012-12-01

    The nature and causes of mass extinctions in the geological past have remained topics of intense scientific debate for the past three decades. Central to this debate is the question of whether one, or several large bolide impacts, the eruption of large igneous provinces (LIP) or a combination of the two were the primary mechanisms driving the environmental changes that are universally regarded as the proximate causes for four of the five major Phanerozoic extinction events. Recent years have seen a revolution in our understanding of interplanetary environments, LIP eruptions and their environmental effects such that the simple impact-kill scenario no longer seems an adequate explanation for the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary (KTB) or any other mass extinction. The KTB is the only mass extinction associated with both impact (Chixculub) and flood basalts (Deccan Traps) and therefore an excellent case study to evaluate the potential causes and effects. Deccan eruptions likely occurred as "pulses", with some gigantic megaflows 1500 km across India and with estimated volumes >10,000 km3 that may have erupted over very short time intervals. For comparison, the largest historical basalt eruption in 1783 in Iceland (Laki) ejected some 15 km3 of lava in about a year. A single Deccan megaflow would have been equivalent to 667 Laki. The vast amount of carbon and sulphur dioxides injected into the atmosphere from just one Deccan megaflow would have been on the same order of magnitude as those estimated for the Chicxulub impact. Deccan Traps erupted in three main phases with 6% total Deccan volume in phase-1 (base C30n), 80% in phase-2 (C29r) and 14% in phase-3 (C29n). Phase-2 and phase-3 each produced four giant megaflows leading to the KTB mass extinction and the long delayed biotic recovery, respectively. Data from infra- and intertrappean sediments of these megaflows drilled in the Krishna-Godavari Basin by India's Oil and Natural Gas Corporation reveal swift and devastating

  2. Active galactic nucleus black hole mass estimates in the era of time domain astronomy

    SciTech Connect

    Kelly, Brandon C.; Treu, Tommaso; Pancoast, Anna; Malkan, Matthew; Woo, Jong-Hak

    2013-12-20

    We investigate the dependence of the normalization of the high-frequency part of the X-ray and optical power spectral densities (PSDs) on black hole mass for a sample of 39 active galactic nuclei (AGNs) with black hole masses estimated from reverberation mapping or dynamical modeling. We obtained new Swift observations of PG 1426+015, which has the largest estimated black hole mass of the AGNs in our sample. We develop a novel statistical method to estimate the PSD from a light curve of photon counts with arbitrary sampling, eliminating the need to bin a light curve to achieve Gaussian statistics, and we use this technique to estimate the X-ray variability parameters for the faint AGNs in our sample. We find that the normalization of the high-frequency X-ray PSD is inversely proportional to black hole mass. We discuss how to use this scaling relationship to obtain black hole mass estimates from the short timescale X-ray variability amplitude with precision ∼0.38 dex. The amplitude of optical variability on timescales of days is also anticorrelated with black hole mass, but with larger scatter. Instead, the optical variability amplitude exhibits the strongest anticorrelation with luminosity. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our results for estimating black hole mass from the amplitude of AGN variability.

  3. Estimates of global mortality attributable to particulate air pollution using satellite imagery.

    PubMed

    Evans, Jessica; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Martin, Randall V; Burnett, Richard; Rainham, Daniel G; Birkett, Nicholas J; Krewski, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    Epidemiological studies of the health effects of air pollution have traditionally relied upon ground-monitoring stations to measure ambient concentrations. Satellite derived air pollution measures offer the advantage of providing global coverage. To undertake a global assessment of mortality associated with long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution using remote sensing data. Global PM(2.5) exposure levels were derived from the MODIS and MISR satellite instruments. Relative risks and attributable fractions of mortality were modeled using previously developed concentration-response functions for the association between PM(2.5) and mortality. The global fraction of adult mortality attributable to the anthropogenic component of PM(2.5) (95% CI) was 8.0% (5.3-10.5) for cardiopulmonary disease, 12.8% (5.9-18.5) for lung cancer, and 9.4% (6.6-11.8) for ischemic heart disease. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using satellite derived pollution concentrations in assessing the population health impacts of air pollution at the global scale. This approach leads to global estimates of mortality attributable to PM(2.5) that are greater than those based on fixed site ground-level measures of urban PM(2.5), but more similar to estimates based on global chemical transport model simulations of anthropogenic PM(2.5). Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis: a review of the epidemiology and estimation of the global burden.

    PubMed

    Platt, Lauren R; Estívariz, Concepción F; Sutter, Roland W

    2014-11-01

    Vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP) is a rare adverse event associated with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV). This review summarizes the epidemiology and provides a global burden estimate. A literature review was conducted to abstract the epidemiology and calculate the risk of VAPP. A bootstrap method was applied to calculate global VAPP burden estimates. Trends in VAPP epidemiology varied by country income level. In the low-income country, the majority of cases occurred in individuals who had received >3 doses of OPV (63%), whereas in middle and high-income countries, most cases occurred in recipients after their first OPV dose or unvaccinated contacts (81%). Using all risk estimates, VAPP risk was 4.7 cases per million births (range, 2.4-9.7), leading to a global annual burden estimate of 498 cases (range, 255-1018). If the analysis is limited to estimates from countries that currently use OPV, the VAPP risk is 3.8 cases per million births (range, 2.9-4.7) and a burden of 399 cases (range, 306-490). Because many high-income countries have replaced OPV with inactivated poliovirus vaccine, the VAPP burden is concentrated in lower-income countries. The planned universal introduction of inactivated poliovirus vaccine is likely to substantially decrease the global VAPP burden by 80%-90%. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. Global and Regional Estimates of Prevalent and Incident Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 Infections in 2012

    PubMed Central

    Looker, Katharine J.; Magaret, Amalia S.; May, Margaret T.; Turner, Katherine M. E.; Vickerman, Peter; Gottlieb, Sami L.; Newman, Lori M.

    2015-01-01

    Background Herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) commonly causes orolabial ulcers, while HSV-2 commonly causes genital ulcers. However, HSV-1 is an increasing cause of genital infection. Previously, the World Health Organization estimated the global burden of HSV-2 for 2003 and for 2012. The global burden of HSV-1 has not been estimated. Methods We fitted a constant-incidence model to pooled HSV-1 prevalence data from literature searches for 6 World Health Organization regions and used 2012 population data to derive global numbers of 0-49-year-olds with prevalent and incident HSV-1 infection. To estimate genital HSV-1, we applied values for the proportion of incident infections that are genital. Findings We estimated that 3709 million people (range: 3440–3878 million) aged 0–49 years had prevalent HSV-1 infection in 2012 (67%), with highest prevalence in Africa, South-East Asia and Western Pacific. Assuming 50% of incident infections among 15-49-year-olds are genital, an estimated 140 million (range: 67–212 million) people had prevalent genital HSV-1 infection, most of which occurred in the Americas, Europe and Western Pacific. Conclusions The global burden of HSV-1 infection is huge. Genital HSV-1 burden can be substantial but varies widely by region. Future control efforts, including development of HSV vaccines, should consider the epidemiology of HSV-1 in addition to HSV-2, and especially the relative contribution of HSV-1 to genital infection. PMID:26510007

  6. Knowing the unknowns: uncertainties in simple estimators of galactic dynamical masses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Campbell, David J. R.; Frenk, Carlos S.; Jenkins, Adrian; Eke, Vincent R.; Navarro, Julio F.; Sawala, Till; Schaller, Matthieu; Fattahi, Azadeh; Oman, Kyle A.; Theuns, Tom

    2017-08-01

    The observed stellar kinematics of dispersion-supported galaxies are often used to measure dynamical masses. Recently, several analytical relationships between the stellar line-of-sight velocity dispersion, the projected (2D) or deprojected (3D) half-light radius and the total mass enclosed within the half-light radius, relying on the spherical Jeans equation, have been proposed. Here, we use the APOSTLE cosmological hydrodynamical simulations of the Local Group to test the validity and accuracy of such mass estimators for both dispersion and rotation-supported galaxies, for field and satellite galaxies, and for galaxies of varying masses, shapes and velocity dispersion anisotropies. We find that the mass estimators of Walker et al. and Wolf et al. are able to recover the masses of dispersion-dominated systems with little systematic bias, but with a 1σ scatter of 25 and 23 per cent, respectively. The error on the estimated mass is dominated by the impact of the 3D shape of the stellar mass distribution, which is difficult to constrain observationally. This intrinsic scatter becomes the dominant source of uncertainty in the masses estimated for galaxies like the dwarf spheroidal (dSph) satellites of the Milky Way, where the observational errors in their sizes and velocity dispersions are small. Such scatter may also affect the inner density slopes of dSphs derived from multiple stellar populations, relaxing the significance with which Navarro-Frenk-White profiles may be excluded, depending on the degree to which the relevant properties of the different stellar populations are correlated. Finally, we derive a new optimal mass estimator that removes the residual biases and achieves a statistically significant reduction in the scatter to 20 per cent overall for dispersion-dominated galaxies, allowing more precise and accurate mass estimates.

  7. Total body skeletal muscle mass: estimation by creatine (methyl-d3) dilution in humans

    PubMed Central

    Walker, Ann C.; O'Connor-Semmes, Robin L.; Leonard, Michael S.; Miller, Ram R.; Stimpson, Stephen A.; Turner, Scott M.; Ravussin, Eric; Cefalu, William T.; Hellerstein, Marc K.; Evans, William J.

    2014-01-01

    Current methods for clinical estimation of total body skeletal muscle mass have significant limitations. We tested the hypothesis that creatine (methyl-d3) dilution (D3-creatine) measured by enrichment of urine D3-creatinine reveals total body creatine pool size, providing an accurate estimate of total body skeletal muscle mass. Healthy subjects with different muscle masses [n = 35: 20 men (19–30 yr, 70–84 yr), 15 postmenopausal women (51–62 yr, 70–84 yr)] were housed for 5 days. Optimal tracer dose was explored with single oral doses of 30, 60, or 100 mg D3-creatine given on day 1. Serial plasma samples were collected for D3-creatine pharmacokinetics. All urine was collected through day 5. Creatine and creatinine (deuterated and unlabeled) were measured by liquid chromatography mass spectrometry. Total body creatine pool size and muscle mass were calculated from D3-creatinine enrichment in urine. Muscle mass was also measured by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and traditional 24-h urine creatinine. D3-creatine was rapidly absorbed and cleared with variable urinary excretion. Isotopic steady-state of D3-creatinine enrichment in the urine was achieved by 30.7 ± 11.2 h. Mean steady-state enrichment in urine provided muscle mass estimates that correlated well with MRI estimates for all subjects (r = 0.868, P < 0.0001), with less bias compared with lean body mass assessment by DXA, which overestimated muscle mass compared with MRI. The dilution of an oral D3-creatine dose determined by urine D3-creatinine enrichment provides an estimate of total body muscle mass strongly correlated with estimates from serial MRI with less bias than total lean body mass assessment by DXA. PMID:24764133

  8. Total body skeletal muscle mass: estimation by creatine (methyl-d3) dilution in humans.

    PubMed

    Clark, Richard V; Walker, Ann C; O'Connor-Semmes, Robin L; Leonard, Michael S; Miller, Ram R; Stimpson, Stephen A; Turner, Scott M; Ravussin, Eric; Cefalu, William T; Hellerstein, Marc K; Evans, William J

    2014-06-15

    Current methods for clinical estimation of total body skeletal muscle mass have significant limitations. We tested the hypothesis that creatine (methyl-d3) dilution (D3-creatine) measured by enrichment of urine D3-creatinine reveals total body creatine pool size, providing an accurate estimate of total body skeletal muscle mass. Healthy subjects with different muscle masses [n = 35: 20 men (19-30 yr, 70-84 yr), 15 postmenopausal women (51-62 yr, 70-84 yr)] were housed for 5 days. Optimal tracer dose was explored with single oral doses of 30, 60, or 100 mg D3-creatine given on day 1. Serial plasma samples were collected for D3-creatine pharmacokinetics. All urine was collected through day 5. Creatine and creatinine (deuterated and unlabeled) were measured by liquid chromatography mass spectrometry. Total body creatine pool size and muscle mass were calculated from D3-creatinine enrichment in urine. Muscle mass was also measured by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and traditional 24-h urine creatinine. D3-creatine was rapidly absorbed and cleared with variable urinary excretion. Isotopic steady-state of D3-creatinine enrichment in the urine was achieved by 30.7 ± 11.2 h. Mean steady-state enrichment in urine provided muscle mass estimates that correlated well with MRI estimates for all subjects (r = 0.868, P < 0.0001), with less bias compared with lean body mass assessment by DXA, which overestimated muscle mass compared with MRI. The dilution of an oral D3-creatine dose determined by urine D3-creatinine enrichment provides an estimate of total body muscle mass strongly correlated with estimates from serial MRI with less bias than total lean body mass assessment by DXA. Copyright © 2014 the American Physiological Society.

  9. A strategy for merging objective estimates of global daily precipitation from gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nie, Suping; Wu, Tongwen; Luo, Yong; Deng, Xueliang; Shi, Xueli; Wang, Zaizhi; Liu, Xiangwen; Huang, Jianbin

    2016-07-01

    This paper describes a strategy for merging daily precipitation information from gauge observations, satellite estimates (SEs), and numerical predictions at the global scale. The strategy is designed to remove systemic bias and random error from each individual daily precipitation source to produce a better gridded global daily precipitation product through three steps. First, a cumulative distribution function matching procedure is performed to remove systemic bias over gauge-located land areas. Then, the overall biases in SEs and model predictions (MPs) over ocean areas are corrected using a rescaled strategy based on monthly precipitation. Third, an optimal interpolation (OI)-based merging scheme (referred as the HL-OI scheme) is used to combine unbiased gauge observations, SEs, and MPs to reduce random error from each source and to produce a gauge—satellite-model merged daily precipitation analysis, called BMEP-d (Beijing Climate Center Merged Estimation of Precipitation with daily resolution), with complete global coverage. The BMEP-d data from a four-year period (2011-14) demonstrate the ability of the merging strategy to provide global daily precipitation of substantially improved quality. Benefiting from the advantages of the HL-OI scheme for quantitative error estimates, the better source data can obtain more weights during the merging processes. The BMEP-d data exhibit higher consistency with satellite and gauge source data at middle and low latitudes, and with model source data at high latitudes. Overall, independent validations against GPCP-1DD (GPCP one-degree daily) show that the consistencies between BMEP-d and GPCP-1DD are higher than those of each source dataset in terms of spatial pattern, temporal variability, probability distribution, and statistical precipitation events.

  10. Determination of balloon gas mass and revised estimates of drag and virtual mass coefficients

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robbins, E.; Martone, M.

    1993-01-01

    In support of the NASA Balloon Program, small-scale balloons were flown with varying lifting gas and total system mass. Instrument packages were developed to measure and record acceleration and temperature data during these tests. Top fitting and instrument payload accelerations were measured from launch to steady state ascent and through ballast drop transients. The development of the small lightweight self-powered Stowaway Special instrument packages is discussed along with mathematical models developed to determine gas mass, drag and virtual mass coefficients.

  11. Global Burden of Leptospirosis: Estimated in Terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years

    PubMed Central

    Torgerson, Paul R.; Hagan, José E.; Costa, Federico; Calcagno, Juan; Kane, Michael; Martinez-Silveira, Martha S.; Goris, Marga G. A.; Stein, Claudia; Ko, Albert I.; Abela-Ridder, Bernadette

    2015-01-01

    Background Leptospirosis, a spirochaetal zoonosis, occurs in diverse epidemiological settings and affects vulnerable populations, such as rural subsistence farmers and urban slum dwellers. Although leptospirosis can cause life-threatening disease, there is no global burden of disease estimate in terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) available. Methodology/Principal Findings We utilised the results of a parallel publication that reported global estimates of morbidity and mortality due to leptospirosis. We estimated Years of Life Lost (YLLs) from age and gender stratified mortality rates. Years of Life with Disability (YLDs) were developed from a simple disease model indicating likely sequelae. DALYs were estimated from the sum of YLLs and YLDs. The study suggested that globally approximately 2·90 million DALYs are lost per annum (UIs 1·25–4·54 million) from the approximately annual 1·03 million cases reported previously. Males are predominantly affected with an estimated 2·33 million DALYs (UIs 0·98–3·69) or approximately 80% of the total burden. For comparison, this is over 70% of the global burden of cholera estimated by GBD 2010. Tropical regions of South and South-east Asia, Western Pacific, Central and South America, and Africa had the highest estimated leptospirosis disease burden. Conclusions/Significance Leptospirosis imparts a significant health burden worldwide, which approach or exceed those encountered for a number of other zoonotic and neglected tropical diseases. The study findings indicate that highest burden estimates occur in resource-poor tropical countries, which include regions of Africa where the burden of leptospirosis has been under-appreciated and possibly misallocated to other febrile illnesses such as malaria. PMID:26431366

  12. Global Burden of Leptospirosis: Estimated in Terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years.

    PubMed

    Torgerson, Paul R; Hagan, José E; Costa, Federico; Calcagno, Juan; Kane, Michael; Martinez-Silveira, Martha S; Goris, Marga G A; Stein, Claudia; Ko, Albert I; Abela-Ridder, Bernadette

    2015-01-01

    Leptospirosis, a spirochaetal zoonosis, occurs in diverse epidemiological settings and affects vulnerable populations, such as rural subsistence farmers and urban slum dwellers. Although leptospirosis can cause life-threatening disease, there is no global burden of disease estimate in terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) available. We utilised the results of a parallel publication that reported global estimates of morbidity and mortality due to leptospirosis. We estimated Years of Life Lost (YLLs) from age and gender stratified mortality rates. Years of Life with Disability (YLDs) were developed from a simple disease model indicating likely sequelae. DALYs were estimated from the sum of YLLs and YLDs. The study suggested that globally approximately 2.90 million DALYs are lost per annum (UIs 1.25-4.54 million) from the approximately annual 1.03 million cases reported previously. Males are predominantly affected with an estimated 2.33 million DALYs (UIs 0.98-3.69) or approximately 80% of the total burden. For comparison, this is over 70% of the global burden of cholera estimated by GBD 2010. Tropical regions of South and South-east Asia, Western Pacific, Central and South America, and Africa had the highest estimated leptospirosis disease burden. Leptospirosis imparts a significant health burden worldwide, which approach or exceed those encountered for a number of other zoonotic and neglected tropical diseases. The study findings indicate that highest burden estimates occur in resource-poor tropical countries, which include regions of Africa where the burden of leptospirosis has been under-appreciated and possibly misallocated to other febrile illnesses such as malaria.

  13. Tracking the global generation and exports of e-waste. Do existing estimates add up?

    PubMed

    Breivik, Knut; Armitage, James M; Wania, Frank; Jones, Kevin C

    2014-01-01

    The transport of discarded electronic and electrical appliances (e-waste) to developing regions has received considerable attention, but it is difficult to assess the significance of this issue without a quantitative understanding of the amounts involved. The main objective of this study is to track the global transport of e-wastes by compiling and constraining existing estimates of the amount of e-waste generated domestically in each country MGEN, exported from countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) MEXP, and imported in countries outside of the OECD MIMP. Reference year is 2005 and all estimates are given with an uncertainty range. Estimates of MGEN obtained by apportioning a global total of ∼ 35,000 kt (range 20,000-50,000 kt) based on a nation's gross domestic product agree well with independent estimates of MGEN for individual countries. Import estimates MIMP to the countries believed to be the major recipients of e-waste exports from the OECD globally (China, India, and five West African countries) suggests that ∼ 5,000 kt (3,600 kt-7,300 kt) may have been imported annually to these non-OECD countries alone, which represents ∼ 23% (17%-34%) of the amounts of e-waste generated domestically within the OECD. MEXP for each OECD country is then estimated by applying this fraction of 23% to its MGEN. By allocating each country's MGEN, MIMP, MEXP and MNET = MGEN + MIMP - MEXP, we can map the global generation and flows of e-waste from OECD to non-OECD countries. While significant uncertainties remain, we note that estimated import into seven non-OECD countries alone are often at the higher end of estimates of exports from OECD countries.

  14. Identifying grain-size dependent errors on global forest area estimates and carbon studies

    Treesearch

    Daolan Zheng; Linda S. Heath; Mark J. Ducey

    2008-01-01

    Satellite-derived coarse-resolution data are typically used for conducting global analyses. But the forest areas estimated from coarse-resolution maps (e.g., 1 km) inevitably differ from a corresponding fine-resolution map (such as a 30-m map) that would be closer to ground truth. A better understanding of changes in grain size on area estimation will improve our...

  15. Estimating Heat and Mass Transfer Processes in Green Roof Systems: Current Modeling Capabilities and Limitations (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Tabares Velasco, P. C.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation discusses estimating heat and mass transfer processes in green roof systems: current modeling capabilities and limitations. Green roofs are 'specialized roofing systems that support vegetation growth on rooftops.'

  16. A GIS TECHNIQUE FOR ESTIMATING NATURAL ATTENUATION RATES AND MASS BALANCES

    EPA Science Inventory

    ABSTRACT: Regulatory approval of monitored natural attenuation (MNA) as a component for site remediation often requires a demonstration that contaminant mass has decreased significantly over time. Successful approval of MNA also typically requires an estimate of past and future n...

  17. A GIS TECHNIQUE FOR ESTIMATING NATURAL ATTENUATION RATES AND MASS BALANCES

    EPA Science Inventory

    ABSTRACT: Regulatory approval of monitored natural attenuation (MNA) as a component for site remediation often requires a demonstration that contaminant mass has decreased significantly over time. Successful approval of MNA also typically requires an estimate of past and future n...

  18. Estimation of body mass index from the metrics of the first metatarsal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dunn, Tyler E.

    Estimation of the biological profile from as many skeletal elements as possible is a necessity in both forensic and bioarchaeological contexts; this includes non-standard aspects of the biological profile, such as body mass index (BMI). BMI is a measure that allows for understanding of the composition of an individual and is traditionally divided into four groups: underweight, normal weight, overweight, and obese. BMI estimation incorporates both estimation of stature and body mass. The estimation of stature from skeletal elements is commonly included into the standard biological profile but the estimation of body mass needs to be further statistically validated to be consistently included. The bones of the foot, specifically the first metatarsal, may have the ability to estimate BMI given an allometric relationship to stature and the mechanical relationship to body mass. There are two commonly used methods for stature estimation, the anatomical method and the regression method. The anatomical method takes into account all of the skeletal elements that contribute to stature while the regression method relies on the allometric relationship between a skeletal element and living stature. A correlation between the metrics of the first metatarsal and living stature has been observed, and proposed as a method for valid stature estimation from the boney foot (Byers et al., 1989). Body mass estimation from skeletal elements relies on two theoretical frameworks: the morphometric and the mechanical approaches. The morphometric approach relies on the size relationship of the individual to body mass; the basic relationship between volume, density, and weight allows for body mass estimation. The body is thought of as a cylinder, and in order to understand the volume of this cylinder the diameter is needed. A commonly used proxy for this in the human body is skeletal bi-iliac breadth from rearticulated pelvic girdle. The mechanical method of body mass estimation relies on the

  19. White Dwarf Mass Estimation with X-ray Spectroscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayashi, T.

    2017-03-01

    I present X-ray spectral modeling of intermediate polars (IPs) and its application to Suzaku satellite data. The intrinsic thermal X-rays are modeled by integrating the plasma emissions of various temperatures in the post-shock accretion column (PSAC). The physical quantity distributions for the thermal spectral model is calculated from quasi-one-dimensional hydrodynamics. The PSAC calculation includes especially the dipolar geometry and variation of the specific accretion rate. The X-ray reflection from the white dwarf (WD) is modeled by a Monte Carlo simulation. In this simulation, the PSAC irradiates a cool, neutral and spherical WD with the various thermal spectra from the corresponding positions in the PSAC according to the thermal spectral model. The coherent and incoherent scattering, the photoelectric absorption, and Kα and Kβ re-emission of iron and nickel are taken into account for the photons arriving at the WD. The constructed X-ray spectral model is applied to EX Hya and V1223 Sgr, finding 0.65+0.11 -0.12 M⊙ and 0.91+0.08-0.03 M⊙, respectively. Their specific accretion rates are estimated at 0.069+0.33-0.045 g cm-2 s-1 and > 2 g cm-2 s-1, respectively, while the reflecting angles are 78.0-1.6+1.4 deg and 66.2+2.5-2.3 deg, respectively.

  20. Estimation of cauliflower mass transfer parameters during convective drying

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sahin, Medine; Doymaz, İbrahim

    2017-02-01

    The study was conducted to evaluate the effect of pre-treatments such as citric acid and hot water blanching and air temperature on drying and rehydration characteristics of cauliflower slices. Experiments were carried out at four different drying air temperatures of 50, 60, 70 and 80 °C with the air velocity of 2.0 m/s. It was observed that drying and rehydration characteristics of cauliflower slices were greatly influenced by air temperature and pre-treatment. Six commonly used mathematical models were evaluated to predict the drying kinetics of cauliflower slices. The Midilli et al. model described the drying behaviour of cauliflower slices at all temperatures better than other models. The values of effective moisture diffusivities ( D eff ) were determined using Fick's law of diffusion and were between 4.09 × 10-9 and 1.88 × 10-8 m2/s. Activation energy was estimated by an Arrhenius type equation and was 23.40, 29.09 and 26.39 kJ/mol for citric acid, blanch and control samples, respectively.

  1. New estimates of area and mass for the North American tektite strewn field

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koeberl, C.

    1989-01-01

    A revised estimate is given for the total mass of the North American tektite material, which is based on a concept of patches or rays of distribution rather than on a continuous tektite and microtektite blanket. This concept yields a total mass of about 3 x 10 to the 14th g, which is less than a third of previous estimates. The shape of the North American tektite strewn field is in agreement with other tektite strewn fields.

  2. Applications of TRMM-based Multi-Satellite Precipitation Estimation for Global Runoff Simulation: Prototyping a Global Flood Monitoring System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hong, Yang; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Pierce, Harold

    2008-01-01

    Advances in flood monitoring/forecasting have been constrained by the difficulty in estimating rainfall continuously over space (catchment-, national-, continental-, or even global-scale areas) and flood-relevant time scale. With the recent availability of satellite rainfall estimates at fine time and space resolution, this paper describes a prototype research framework for global flood monitoring by combining real-time satellite observations with a database of global terrestrial characteristics through a hydrologically relevant modeling scheme. Four major components included in the framework are (1) real-time precipitation input from NASA TRMM-based Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA); (2) a central geospatial database to preprocess the land surface characteristics: water divides, slopes, soils, land use, flow directions, flow accumulation, drainage network etc.; (3) a modified distributed hydrological model to convert rainfall to runoff and route the flow through the stream network in order to predict the timing and severity of the flood wave, and (4) an open-access web interface to quickly disseminate flood alerts for potential decision-making. Retrospective simulations for 1998-2006 demonstrate that the Global Flood Monitor (GFM) system performs consistently at both station and catchment levels. The GFM website (experimental version) has been running at near real-time in an effort to offer a cost-effective solution to the ultimate challenge of building natural disaster early warning systems for the data-sparse regions of the world. The interactive GFM website shows close-up maps of the flood risks overlaid on topography/population or integrated with the Google-Earth visualization tool. One additional capability, which extends forecast lead-time by assimilating QPF into the GFM, also will be implemented in the future.

  3. An integrated risk function for estimating the global burden of disease attributable to ambient fine particulate matter exposure.

    PubMed

    Burnett, Richard T; Pope, C Arden; Ezzati, Majid; Olives, Casey; Lim, Stephen S; Mehta, Sumi; Shin, Hwashin H; Singh, Gitanjali; Hubbell, Bryan; Brauer, Michael; Anderson, H Ross; Smith, Kirk R; Balmes, John R; Bruce, Nigel G; Kan, Haidong; Laden, Francine; Prüss-Ustün, Annette; Turner, Michelle C; Gapstur, Susan M; Diver, W Ryan; Cohen, Aaron

    2014-04-01

    Estimating the burden of disease attributable to long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in ambient air requires knowledge of both the shape and magnitude of the relative risk (RR) function. However, adequate direct evidence to identify the shape of the mortality RR functions at the high ambient concentrations observed in many places in the world is lacking. We developed RR functions over the entire global exposure range for causes of mortality in adults: ischemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (stroke), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and lung cancer (LC). We also developed RR functions for the incidence of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) that can be used to estimate mortality and lost-years of healthy life in children < 5 years of age. We fit an integrated exposure-response (IER) model by integrating available RR information from studies of ambient air pollution (AAP), second hand tobacco smoke, household solid cooking fuel, and active smoking (AS). AS exposures were converted to estimated annual PM2.5 exposure equivalents using inhaled doses of particle mass. We derived population attributable fractions (PAFs) for every country based on estimated worldwide ambient PM2.5 concentrations. The IER model was a superior predictor of RR compared with seven other forms previously used in burden assessments. The percent PAF attributable to AAP exposure varied among countries from 2 to 41 for IHD, 1 to 43 for stroke, < 1 to 21 for COPD, < 1 to 25 for LC, and < 1 to 38 for ALRI. We developed a fine particulate mass-based RR model that covered the global range of exposure by integrating RR information from different combustion types that generate emissions of particulate matter. The model can be updated as new RR information becomes available.

  4. Improved estimate of accelerated Antarctica ice mass loses from GRACE, Altimetry and surface mass balance from regional climate model output

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velicogna, I.; Sutterley, T. C.; A, G.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Ivins, E. R.

    2016-12-01

    We use Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) monthly gravity fields to determine the regional acceleration in ice mass loss in Antarctica for 2002-2016. We find that the total mass loss is controlled by only a few regions. In Antarctica, the Amundsen Sea (AS) sector and the Antarctic Peninsula account for 65% and 18%, respectively, of the total loss (186 ± 10 Gt/yr) mainly from ice dynamics. The AS sector contributes most of the acceleration in loss (9 ± 1 Gt/yr2 ), and Queen Maud Land, East Antarctica, is the only sector with a significant mass gain due to a local increase in SMB (57 ± 5 Gt/yr). We compare GRACE regional mass balance estimates with independent estimates from ICESat-1 and Operation IceBridge laser altimetry, CryoSat-2 radar altimetry, and surface mass balance outputs from RACMO2.3. In the Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica, an area experiencing rapid retreat and mass loss to the sea, we find good agreement between GRACE and altimetry estimates. Comparison of GRACE with these independent techniques in East Antarctic shows that GIA estimates from the new regional ice deglaciation models underestimate the GIA correction in the EAIS interior, which implies larger losses of the Antarctica ice sheet by about 70 Gt/yr. Sectors where we are observing the largest losses are closest to warm circumpolar water, and with polar constriction of the westerlies enhanced by climate warming, we expect these sectors to contribute more and more to sea level as the ice shelves that protect these glaciers will melt faster in contact with more heat from the surrounding oc

  5. Improving Global Mass Flux Solutions from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Through Forward Modeling and Continuous Time Correlation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sabaka, T. J.; Rowlands, D. D.; Luthcke, S. B.; Boy, J.-P.

    2010-01-01

    We describe Earth's mass flux from April 2003 through November 2008 by deriving a time series of mas cons on a global 2deg x 2deg equal-area grid at 10 day intervals. We estimate the mass flux directly from K band range rate (KBRR) data provided by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Using regularized least squares, we take into account the underlying process dynamics through continuous space and time-correlated constraints. In addition, we place the mascon approach in the context of other filtering techniques, showing its equivalence to anisotropic, nonsymmetric filtering, least squares collocation, and Kalman smoothing. We produce mascon time series from KBRR data that have and have not been corrected (forward modeled) for hydrological processes and fmd that the former produce superior results in oceanic areas by minimizing signal leakage from strong sources on land. By exploiting the structure of the spatiotemporal constraints, we are able to use a much more efficient (in storage and computation) inversion algorithm based upon the conjugate gradient method. This allows us to apply continuous rather than piecewise continuous time-correlated constraints, which we show via global maps and comparisons with ocean-bottom pressure gauges, to produce time series with reduced random variance and full systematic signal. Finally, we present a preferred global model, a hybrid whose oceanic portions are derived using forward modeling of hydrology but whose land portions are not, and thus represent a pure GRACE-derived signal.

  6. Improving global mass flux solutions from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) through forward modeling and continuous time correlation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sabaka, T. J.; Rowlands, D. D.; Luthcke, S. B.; Boy, J.-P.

    2010-11-01

    We describe Earth's mass flux from April 2003 through November 2008 by deriving a time series of mascons on a global 2° × 2° equal-area grid at 10 day intervals. We estimate the mass flux directly from K band range rate (KBRR) data provided by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Using regularized least squares, we take into account the underlying process dynamics through continuous space and time-correlated constraints. In addition, we place the mascon approach in the context of other filtering techniques, showing its equivalence to anisotropic, nonsymmetric filtering, least squares collocation, and Kalman smoothing. We produce mascon time series from KBRR data that have and have not been corrected (forward modeled) for hydrological processes and find that the former produce superior results in oceanic areas by minimizing signal leakage from strong sources on land. By exploiting the structure of the spatiotemporal constraints, we are able to use a much more efficient (in storage and computation) inversion algorithm based upon the conjugate gradient method. This allows us to apply continuous rather than piecewise continuous time-correlated constraints, which we show via global maps and comparisons with ocean-bottom pressure gauges, to produce time series with reduced random variance and full systematic signal. Finally, we present a preferred global model, a hybrid whose oceanic portions are derived using forward modeling of hydrology but whose land portions are not, and thus represent a pure GRACE-derived signal.

  7. Improving Global Mass Flux Solutions from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Through Forward Modeling and Continuous Time Correlation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sabaka, T. J.; Rowlands, D. D.; Luthcke, S. B.; Boy, J.-P.

    2010-01-01

    We describe Earth's mass flux from April 2003 through November 2008 by deriving a time series of mas cons on a global 2deg x 2deg equal-area grid at 10 day intervals. We estimate the mass flux directly from K band range rate (KBRR) data provided by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Using regularized least squares, we take into account the underlying process dynamics through continuous space and time-correlated constraints. In addition, we place the mascon approach in the context of other filtering techniques, showing its equivalence to anisotropic, nonsymmetric filtering, least squares collocation, and Kalman smoothing. We produce mascon time series from KBRR data that have and have not been corrected (forward modeled) for hydrological processes and fmd that the former produce superior results in oceanic areas by minimizing signal leakage from strong sources on land. By exploiting the structure of the spatiotemporal constraints, we are able to use a much more efficient (in storage and computation) inversion algorithm based upon the conjugate gradient method. This allows us to apply continuous rather than piecewise continuous time-correlated constraints, which we show via global maps and comparisons with ocean-bottom pressure gauges, to produce time series with reduced random variance and full systematic signal. Finally, we present a preferred global model, a hybrid whose oceanic portions are derived using forward modeling of hydrology but whose land portions are not, and thus represent a pure GRACE-derived signal.

  8. Global stability for a class of mass action systems allowing for latency in tuberculosis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCluskey, C. Connell

    2008-02-01

    A very general compartmental model of the spread of an infectious disease with mass action incidence is given. The global stability of this system is completely determined using Lyapunov functions. The general system exhibits the traditional threshold behaviour. The dimension of the system is arbitrary, allowing, in particular, for detailed modelling of the distribution of latency times for tuberculosis.

  9. Effect of body composition methodology on estimates of fat mass heritability

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Background: Body fatness is influenced by both genetic and environmental factors. Previous studies have produced a wide range of estimates for the heritability of body fatness, ranging from 0.34-0.90 for body mass index (BMI), 0.59-0.83 for percent body fat, and 0.45-0.71 for fat mass. Little atte...

  10. A Global Mass Balance of Isotope Ratios in Hydrologic Fluxes Provides Constraints on Terrestrial and Oceanic Water Cycling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Good, S. P.; Noone, D. C.; Kurita, N.; Benetti, M.; Bowen, G. J.

    2014-12-01

    The global budget of isotope ratios in the Earth's water cycle is poorly understood because of large uncertainties in the isotopic composition of continental evapotranspiration. Additional uncertainties exist in the global pattern of marine boundary layer vapor D/H isotope ratios and the magnitude of their influence on oceanic evaporation. Here, we use satellite retrievals of marine boundary layer vapor HDO and H2O from the Tropospheric Emissions Spectrometer (TES) corrected to match surface vapor collected during cruises in the Pacific, Atlantic, Indian, and Arctic Oceans to resolve the global D/H isotope ratio budget. After our correction, satellite retrievals are un-biased, and have an average error of 14 permil when compared with 1341 satellite retrievals that were co-located with surface observations. Using TES retrieval spanning the globe, we calculate the global oceanic evaporation flux isotopic composition as approximately -30 permil, and combined with estimates of precipitation isotope ratios, a global mass balance is applied to quantify terrestrial evapotranspiration and runoff composition. The flux-weighted average isotopic composition of precipitation is estimated at approximately -37 permil, with oceanic precipitation having a value of approximately -32 permil and terrestrial precipitation having a value of approximately -52 permil. Based on our mass balance, terrestrial evapotranspiration has a flux-weighted average composition of -69 permil and terrestrial runoff has an average composition of -16 permil, which corresponds to a terrestrial enrichment of 37 permil for runoff relative to terrestrial precipitation. Knowledge of the entire HDO budget provides constraints on terrestrial evaporation/transpiration partitioning as well as tropospheric entrainment of moisture into the boundary layer, both poorly understood components of the global hydrologic cycle. These calculations provide a critical test of an essential global closure theory upon which many

  11. Synthesizing Global and Local Datasets to Estimate Jurisdictional Forest Carbon Fluxes in Berau, Indonesia.

    PubMed

    Griscom, Bronson W; Ellis, Peter W; Baccini, Alessandro; Marthinus, Delon; Evans, Jeffrey S; Ruslandi

    2016-01-01

    Forest conservation efforts are increasingly being implemented at the scale of sub-national jurisdictions in order to mitigate global climate change and provide other ecosystem services. We see an urgent need for robust estimates of historic forest carbon emissions at this scale, as the basis for credible measures of climate and other benefits achieved. Despite the arrival of a new generation of global datasets on forest area change and biomass, confusion remains about how to produce credible jurisdictional estimates of forest emissions. We demonstrate a method for estimating the relevant historic forest carbon fluxes within the Regency of Berau in eastern Borneo, Indonesia. Our method integrates best available global and local datasets, and includes a comprehensive analysis of uncertainty at the regency scale. We find that Berau generated 8.91 ± 1.99 million tonnes of net CO2 emissions per year during 2000-2010. Berau is an early frontier landscape where gross emissions are 12 times higher than gross sequestration. Yet most (85%) of Berau's original forests are still standing. The majority of net emissions were due to conversion of native forests to unspecified agriculture (43% of total), oil palm (28%), and fiber plantations (9%). Most of the remainder was due to legal commercial selective logging (17%). Our overall uncertainty estimate offers an independent basis for assessing three other estimates for Berau. Two other estimates were above the upper end of our uncertainty range. We emphasize the importance of including an uncertainty range for all parameters of the emissions equation to generate a comprehensive uncertainty estimate-which has not been done before. We believe comprehensive estimates of carbon flux uncertainty are increasingly important as national and international institutions are challenged with comparing alternative estimates and identifying a credible range of historic emissions values.

  12. Improvement of sub-pixel global motion estimation in UAV image stabilization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yingjuan; Ji, Ming; He, Junfeng; Zhen, Kang; Yang, Yizhou; Chen, Ying

    2016-01-01

    Global motion estimation within frames is very important in the UAV(unmanned aerial vehicle) image stabilization system. A fast algorithm based on phase correlation and image down-sampling in sub-pixel was proposed. First, down-sampling of the two frames to quantitatively reduce calculate data. Then, take the method based of phase correlation to realize the global motion estimation in integer-pixel. When it calculated out, chooses the overlapped area of the two frames and interpolated them with zero, then adopts the method based on phase correlation to achieve the global motion estimation in sub-pixel. At last, weighted calculate the result in integer-pixel and the result in sub-pixel, the global motion displacement in sub-pixel of the two images will be calculated out. Experimental results show that, using the proposed algorithm can not only achieve good robustness to the influence of noise, illumination and partially sheltered but also improve the accuracy of motion estimation and efficiency of computing significantly.

  13. Can a sample of Landsat sensor scenes reliably estimate the global extent of tropical deforestation?

    Treesearch

    R. L. Czaplewski

    2003-01-01

    Tucker and Townshend (2000) conclude that wall-to-wall coverage is needed to avoid gross errors in estimations of deforestation rates' because tropical deforestation is concentrated along roads and rivers. They specifically question the reliability of the 10% sample of Landsat sensor scenes used in the global remote sensing survey conducted by the Food and...

  14. Global-Scale Location and Distance Estimates: Common Representations and Strategies in Absolute and Relative Judgments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Friedman, Alinda; Montello, Daniel R.

    2006-01-01

    The authors examined whether absolute and relative judgments about global-scale locations and distances were generated from common representations. At the end of a 10-week class on the regional geography of the United States, participants estimated the latitudes of 16 North American cities and all possible pairwise distances between them. Although…

  15. A numerical study on dust devils with implications to global dust budget estimates

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The estimates of the contribution of dust devils (DDs) to the global dust budget have large uncertainties because the dust emission mechanisms in DDs are not yet well understood. In this study, a large-eddy simulation model coupled with a dust scheme is used to investigate DD dust entrainment. DDs a...

  16. New global stability estimates for the Gel'fand-Calderon inverse problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Novikov, R. G.

    2011-01-01

    We prove new global stability estimates for the Gel'fand-Calderon inverse problem in 3D. For sufficiently regular potentials, this result of the present work is a principal improvement of the result of Alessandrini (1988 Appl. Anal. 27 153-172).

  17. A COMPARISON OF METHODS FOR ESTIMATING GLOBAL METHANE EMISSIONS FROM LANDFILLS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Landfills are a significant source of methane, ranking third in anthropogenic sources after rice paddies and ruminants. Estimating the contribution of landfills to global methane flux is hampered by a lack of accurate refuse and landfill data, and therefore depends heavily on the...

  18. A COMPARISON OF METHODS FOR ESTIMATING GLOBAL METHANE EMISSIONS FROM LANDFILLS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Landfills are a significant source of methane, ranking third in anthropogenic sources after rice paddies and ruminants. Estimating the contribution of landfills to global methane flux is hampered by a lack of accurate refuse and landfill data, and therefore depends heavily on the...

  19. Ambient Air Pollution Exposure Estimation for the Global Burden of Disease 2013.

    PubMed

    Brauer, Michael; Freedman, Greg; Frostad, Joseph; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Martin, Randall V; Dentener, Frank; van Dingenen, Rita; Estep, Kara; Amini, Heresh; Apte, Joshua S; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Barregard, Lars; Broday, David; Feigin, Valery; Ghosh, Santu; Hopke, Philip K; Knibbs, Luke D; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Liu, Yang; Ma, Stefan; Morawska, Lidia; Sangrador, José Luis Texcalac; Shaddick, Gavin; Anderson, H Ross; Vos, Theo; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Burnett, Richard T; Cohen, Aaron

    2016-01-05

    Exposure to ambient air pollution is a major risk factor for global disease. Assessment of the impacts of air pollution on population health and evaluation of trends relative to other major risk factors requires regularly updated, accurate, spatially resolved exposure estimates. We combined satellite-based estimates, chemical transport model simulations, and ground measurements from 79 different countries to produce global estimates of annual average fine particle (PM2.5) and ozone concentrations at 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution for five-year intervals from 1990 to 2010 and the year 2013. These estimates were applied to assess population-weighted mean concentrations for 1990-2013 for each of 188 countries. In 2013, 87% of the world's population lived in areas exceeding the World Health Organization Air Quality Guideline of 10 μg/m(3) PM2.5 (annual average). Between 1990 and 2013, global population-weighted PM2.5 increased by 20.4% driven by trends in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and China. Decreases in population-weighted mean concentrations of PM2.5 were evident in most high income countries. Population-weighted mean concentrations of ozone increased globally by 8.9% from 1990-2013 with increases in most countries-except for modest decreases in North America, parts of Europe, and several countries in Southeast Asia.

  20. Estimation of Global 1km-grid Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Part I: Developing Inputs and Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sasai, T.; Murakami, K.; Kato, S.; Matsunaga, T.; Saigusa, N.; Hiraki, K.

    2015-12-01

    Global terrestrial carbon cycle largely depends on a spatial pattern in land cover type, which is heterogeneously-distributed over regional and global scales. However, most studies, which aimed at the estimation of carbon exchanges between ecosystem and atmosphere, remained within several tens of kilometers grid spatial resolution, and the results have not been enough to understand the detailed pattern of carbon exchanges based on ecological community. Improving the sophistication of spatial resolution is obviously necessary to enhance the accuracy of carbon exchanges. Moreover, the improvement may contribute to global warming awareness, policy makers and other social activities. In this study, we show global terrestrial carbon exchanges (net ecosystem production, net primary production, and gross primary production) with 1km-grid resolution. As methodology for computing the exchanges, we 1) developed a global 1km-grid climate and satellite dataset based on the approach in Setoyama and Sasai (2013); 2) used the satellite-driven biosphere model (Biosphere model integrating Eco-physiological And Mechanistic approaches using Satellite data: BEAMS) (Sasai et al., 2005, 2007, 2011); 3) simulated the carbon exchanges by using the new dataset and BEAMS by the use of a supercomputer that includes 1280 CPU and 320 GPGPU cores (GOSAT RCF of NIES). As a result, we could develop a global uniform system for realistically estimating terrestrial carbon exchange, and evaluate net ecosystem production in each community level; leading to obtain highly detailed understanding of terrestrial carbon exchanges.

  1. Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Muller, Christoph; Ewart, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Deryng, Delphine

    2016-01-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

  2. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph; Ewert, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Alderman, Phillip D.; Anothai, Jakarat; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Cammarano, Davide; Challinor, Andy; Deryng, Delphine; Sanctis, Giacomo De; Doltra, Jordi; Fereres, Elias; Folberth, Christian; Garcia-Vila, Margarita; Gayler, Sebastian; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Hunt, Leslie A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Jabloun, Mohamed; Jones, Curtis D.; Kersebaum, Kurt C.; Kimball, Bruce A.; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Nendel, Claas; O'Leary, Garry J.; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Ottman, Michael J.; Palosuo, Taru; Prasad, P. V. Vara; Priesack, Eckart; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Reynolds, Matthew; Rezaei, Ehsan E.; Rötter, Reimund P.; Schmid, Erwin; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Shcherbak, Iurii; Stehfest, Elke; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Thorburn, Peter; Waha, Katharina; Wall, Gerard W.; Wang, Enli; White, Jeffrey W.; Wolf, Joost; Zhao, Zhigan; Zhu, Yan

    2016-12-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify `method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

  3. Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Muller, Christoph; Ewart, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; hide

    2016-01-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

  4. WHE-PAGER Project: A new initiative in estimating global building inventory and its seismic vulnerability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, K.A.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Wald, D.J.; Greene, M.; Comartin, Craig

    2008-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquake’s Response (PAGER) Project and the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute’s World Housing Encyclopedia (WHE) are creating a global database of building stocks and their earthquake vulnerability. The WHE already represents a growing, community-developed public database of global housing and its detailed structural characteristics. It currently contains more than 135 reports on particular housing types in 40 countries. The WHE-PAGER effort extends the WHE in several ways: (1) by addressing non-residential construction; (2) by quantifying the prevalence of each building type in both rural and urban areas; (3) by addressing day and night occupancy patterns, (4) by adding quantitative vulnerability estimates from judgment or statistical observation; and (5) by analytically deriving alternative vulnerability estimates using in part laboratory testing.

  5. An estimate of the global distribution of radon emissions from the ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schery, S. D.; Huang, S.

    2004-10-01

    There is a need for improved estimates of the radon (222Rn) flux density from the ocean for use in the modeling and interpretation of atmospheric radon in global climate and air pollution studies. We use a modification of a frequently used model of gas transfer to generate global predictions of ocean radon flux density for each month of the year (climate averaged) on a 192 by 94 global grid. Compared with the often-used approximation of a constant radon flux from the ocean, the model's predictions indicate large variations over regions of the ocean (a factor of ten is not uncommon). For example, latitude bands near the equator and Southern Ocean are predicted to emit relatively high average radon flux compared with other latitude bands. The predicted annually-averaged flux density from the ocean is 0.0382 mBq m-2 s-1 (0.00182 atoms cm-2 s-1), smaller than some commonly-used estimates.

  6. Estimation of Global 1km-grid Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Part II: Evaluations and Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murakami, K.; Sasai, T.; Kato, S.; Niwa, Y.; Saito, M.; Takagi, H.; Matsunaga, T.; Hiraki, K.; Maksyutov, S. S.; Yokota, T.

    2015-12-01

    Global terrestrial carbon cycle largely depends on a spatial pattern in land cover type, which is heterogeneously-distributed over regional and global scales. Many studies have been trying to reveal distribution of carbon exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and atmosphere for understanding global carbon cycle dynamics by using terrestrial biosphere models, satellite data, inventory data, and so on. However, most studies remained within several tens of kilometers grid spatial resolution, and the results have not been enough to understand the detailed pattern of carbon exchanges based on ecological community and to evaluate the carbon stocks by forest ecosystems in each countries. Improving the sophistication of spatial resolution is obviously necessary to enhance the accuracy of carbon exchanges. Moreover, the improvement may contribute to global warming awareness, policy makers and other social activities. We show global terrestrial carbon exchanges (net ecosystem production, net primary production, and gross primary production) with 1km-grid resolution. The methodology for these estimations are shown in the 2015 AGU FM poster "Estimation of Global 1km-grid Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Part I: Developing Inputs and Modelling". In this study, we evaluated the carbon exchanges in various regions with other approaches. We used the satellite-driven biosphere model (BEAMS) as our estimations, GOSAT L4A CO2 flux data, NEP retrieved by NICAM and CarbonTracer2013 flux data, for period from Jun 2001 to Dec 2012. The temporal patterns for this period were indicated similar trends between BEAMS, GOSAT, NICAM, and CT2013 in many sub-continental regions. Then, we estimated the terrestrial carbon exchanges in each countries, and could indicated the temporal patterns of the exchanges in large carbon stock regions.Global terrestrial carbon cycle largely depends on a spatial pattern of land cover type, which is heterogeneously-distributed over regional and global scales. Many

  7. A global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, K.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat's demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  8. A First Approach to Global Runoff Simulation using Satellite Rainfall Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hong, Yang; Adler, Robert F.; Hossain, Faisal; Curtis, Scott; Huffman, George J.

    2007-01-01

    Many hydrological models have been introduced in the hydrological literature to predict runoff but few of these have become common planning or decision-making tools, either because the data requirements are substantial or because the modeling processes are too complicated for operational application. On the other hand, progress in regional or global rainfall-runoff simulation has been constrained by the difficulty of measuring spatiotemporal variability of the primary causative factor, i.e. rainfall fluxes, continuously over space and time. Building on progress in remote sensing technology, researchers have improved the accuracy, coverage, and resolution of rainfall estimates by combining imagery from infrared, passive microwave, and space-borne radar sensors. Motivated by the recent increasing availability of global remote sensing data for estimating precipitation and describing land surface characteristics, this note reports a ballpark assessment of quasi-global runoff computed by incorporating satellite rainfall data and other remote sensing products in a relatively simple rainfall-runoff simulation approach: the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) runoff Curve Number (CN) method. Using an Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) as a proxy of antecedent moisture conditions, this note estimates time-varying NRCS-CN values determined by the 5-day normalized API. Driven by multi-year (1998-2006) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis, quasi-global runoff was retrospectively simulated with the NRCS-CN method and compared to Global Runoff Data Centre data at global and catchment scales. Results demonstrated the potential for using this simple method when diagnosing runoff values from satellite rainfall for the globe and for medium to large river basins. This work was done with the simple NRCS-CN method as a first-cut approach to understanding the challenges that lie ahead in advancing the satellite-based inference of

  9. Phobos mass estimations from MEX and Viking 1 data: influence of different noise sources and estimation strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kudryashova, M.; Rosenblatt, P.; Marty, J.-C.

    2015-08-01

    The mass of Phobos is an important parameter which, together with second-order gravity field coefficients and libration amplitude, constrains internal structure and nature of the moon. And thus, it needs to be known with high precision. Nevertheless, Phobos mass (GM, more precisely) estimated by different authors based on diverse data-sets and methods, varies by more than their 1-sigma error. The most complete lists of GM values are presented in the works of R. Jacobson (2010) and M. Paetzold et al. (2014) and include the estimations in the interval from (5.39 ± 0:03).10^5 (Smith et al., 1995) till (8.5 ± 0.7).10^5[m^3/s^2] (Williams et al., 1988). Furthermore, even the comparison of the estimations coming from the same estimation procedure applied to the consecutive flybys of the same spacecraft (s/c) shows big variations in GMs. The indicated behavior is very pronounced in the GM estimations stemming from the Viking1 flybys in February 1977 (as well as from MEX flybys, though in a smaller amplitude) and in this work we made an attempt to figure out its roots. The errors of Phobos GM estimations depend on the precision of the model (e.g. accuracy of Phobos a priori ephemeris and its a priori GM value) as well as on the radio-tracking measurements quality (noise, coverage, flyby distance). In the present work we are testing the impact of mentioned above error sources by means of simulations. We also consider the effect of the uncertainties in a priori Phobos positions on the GM estimations from real observations. Apparently, the strategy (i.e. splitting real observations in data-arcs, whether they stem from the close approaches of Phobos by spacecraft or from analysis of the s/c orbit evolution around Mars) of the estimations has an impact on the Phobos GM estimation.

  10. A New Method for Estimating the Coverage of Mass Vaccination Campaigns Against Poliomyelitis From Surveillance Data.

    PubMed

    O'Reilly, K M; Cori, A; Durry, E; Wadood, M Z; Bosan, A; Aylward, R B; Grassly, N C

    2015-12-01

    Mass vaccination campaigns with the oral poliovirus vaccine targeting children aged <5 years are a critical component of the global poliomyelitis eradication effort. Monitoring the coverage of these campaigns is essential to allow corrective action, but current approaches are limited by their cross-sectional nature, nonrandom sampling, reporting biases, and accessibility issues. We describe a new Bayesian framework using data augmentation and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate variation in vaccination coverage from children's vaccination histories investigated during surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis. We tested the method using simulated data with at least 200 cases and were able to detect undervaccinated groups if they exceeded 10% of all children and temporal changes in coverage of ±10% with greater than 90% sensitivity. Application of the method to data from Pakistan for 2010-2011 identified undervaccinated groups within the Balochistan/Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions, as well as temporal changes in coverage. The sizes of these groups are consistent with the multiple challenges faced by the program in these regions as a result of conflict and insecurity. Application of this new method to routinely collected data can be a useful tool for identifying poorly performing areas and assisting in eradication efforts.

  11. A New Method for Estimating the Coverage of Mass Vaccination Campaigns Against Poliomyelitis From Surveillance Data

    PubMed Central

    O'Reilly, K. M.; Cori, A.; Durry, E.; Wadood, M. Z.; Bosan, A.; Aylward, R. B.; Grassly, N. C.

    2015-01-01

    Mass vaccination campaigns with the oral poliovirus vaccine targeting children aged <5 years are a critical component of the global poliomyelitis eradication effort. Monitoring the coverage of these campaigns is essential to allow corrective action, but current approaches are limited by their cross-sectional nature, nonrandom sampling, reporting biases, and accessibility issues. We describe a new Bayesian framework using data augmentation and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate variation in vaccination coverage from children's vaccination histories investigated during surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis. We tested the method using simulated data with at least 200 cases and were able to detect undervaccinated groups if they exceeded 10% of all children and temporal changes in coverage of ±10% with greater than 90% sensitivity. Application of the method to data from Pakistan for 2010–2011 identified undervaccinated groups within the Balochistan/Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions, as well as temporal changes in coverage. The sizes of these groups are consistent with the multiple challenges faced by the program in these regions as a result of conflict and insecurity. Application of this new method to routinely collected data can be a useful tool for identifying poorly performing areas and assisting in eradication efforts. PMID:26568569

  12. Yellow Fever in Africa: estimating the burden of disease and impact of mass vaccination from outbreak and serological data.

    PubMed

    Garske, Tini; Van Kerkhove, Maria D; Yactayo, Sergio; Ronveaux, Olivier; Lewis, Rosamund F; Staples, J Erin; Perea, William; Ferguson, Neil M

    2014-05-01

    Yellow fever is a vector-borne disease affecting humans and non-human primates in tropical areas of Africa and South America. While eradication is not feasible due to the wildlife reservoir, large scale vaccination activities in Africa during the 1940s to 1960s reduced yellow fever incidence for several decades. However, after a period of low vaccination coverage, yellow fever has resurged in the continent. Since 2006 there has been substantial funding for large preventive mass vaccination campaigns in the most affected countries in Africa to curb the rising burden of disease and control future outbreaks. Contemporary estimates of the yellow fever disease burden are lacking, and the present study aimed to update the previous estimates on the basis of more recent yellow fever occurrence data and improved estimation methods. Generalised linear regression models were fitted to a dataset of the locations of yellow fever outbreaks within the last 25 years to estimate the probability of outbreak reports across the endemic zone. Environmental variables and indicators for the surveillance quality in the affected countries were used as covariates. By comparing probabilities of outbreak reports estimated in the regression with the force of infection estimated for a limited set of locations for which serological surveys were available, the detection probability per case and the force of infection were estimated across the endemic zone. The yellow fever burden in Africa was estimated for the year 2013 as 130,000 (95% CI 51,000-380,000) cases with fever and jaundice or haemorrhage including 78,000 (95% CI 19,000-180,000) deaths, taking into account the current level of vaccination coverage. The impact of the recent mass vaccination campaigns was assessed by evaluating the difference between the estimates obtained for the current vaccination coverage and for a hypothetical scenario excluding these vaccination campaigns. Vaccination campaigns were estimated to have reduced the

  13. Yellow Fever in Africa: Estimating the Burden of Disease and Impact of Mass Vaccination from Outbreak and Serological Data

    PubMed Central

    Garske, Tini; Van Kerkhove, Maria D.; Yactayo, Sergio; Ronveaux, Olivier; Lewis, Rosamund F.; Staples, J. Erin; Perea, William; Ferguson, Neil M.

    2014-01-01

    Background Yellow fever is a vector-borne disease affecting humans and non-human primates in tropical areas of Africa and South America. While eradication is not feasible due to the wildlife reservoir, large scale vaccination activities in Africa during the 1940s to 1960s reduced yellow fever incidence for several decades. However, after a period of low vaccination coverage, yellow fever has resurged in the continent. Since 2006 there has been substantial funding for large preventive mass vaccination campaigns in the most affected countries in Africa to curb the rising burden of disease and control future outbreaks. Contemporary estimates of the yellow fever disease burden are lacking, and the present study aimed to update the previous estimates on the basis of more recent yellow fever occurrence data and improved estimation methods. Methods and Findings Generalised linear regression models were fitted to a dataset of the locations of yellow fever outbreaks within the last 25 years to estimate the probability of outbreak reports across the endemic zone. Environmental variables and indicators for the surveillance quality in the affected countries were used as covariates. By comparing probabilities of outbreak reports estimated in the regression with the force of infection estimated for a limited set of locations for which serological surveys were available, the detection probability per case and the force of infection were estimated across the endemic zone. The yellow fever burden in Africa was estimated for the year 2013 as 130,000 (95% CI 51,000–380,000) cases with fever and jaundice or haemorrhage including 78,000 (95% CI 19,000–180,000) deaths, taking into account the current level of vaccination coverage. The impact of the recent mass vaccination campaigns was assessed by evaluating the difference between the estimates obtained for the current vaccination coverage and for a hypothetical scenario excluding these vaccination campaigns. Vaccination campaigns

  14. Regional Estimation of Photosynthesis and Respiration Using Multiple Observational Constraints to Improve Global Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denning, S.; Geyer, N. M.; Schuh, A. E.; Baker, I. T.; Haynes, K. D.; Berry, J. A.

    2016-12-01

    On regional scales over periods of a few years or longer, photosynthesis and respiration are locked together through substrate limitation, yet subtle changes in this balance have caused global land ecosystems to sequester about 25% of global fossil fuel emissions for decades. Understanding and predicting the future of terrestrial sinks requires separately constraining the gross fluxes in and out of ecosystems due to photosynthesis and respiration. Atmospheric transport inverse modeling using CO2 observations has been a valuable tool for estimating regional carbon budgets, but CO2 only responds to the small residual between photosynthesis and respiration. Net fluxes are notoriously noisy in regional ecosystems, but gross fluxes are much more coherent in time. Using observations to correct biases in model estimates of gross fluxes provides a stronger constraint because the longer decorrelation time scales increase the ratio of observations to unknowns. We have tested an optimization framework for correcting model biases in gross fluxes at a number of flux tower sites and found that the new method is much more robust to uncertainty in the observations than a control in which net fluxes were estimated. Unsurprisingly, the new method requires an additional constraint to distinguish between errors in photosynthesis and respiration. We test the new method using solar induced fluorescence (SIF), and find that it is able to accurately estimate gross fluxes at the sites. We outline a global implementation of the new algorithm using tracer transport and global observations of both CO2 and SIF from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2). The global method can also be extended to use observations of carbonyl sulfide (COS). Resulting global maps of imbalances in respiration and photosynthesis are interpreted in terms of model errors related to sink mechanisms such as CO2 fertilization, regrowth from past disturbance, changes in nutrient cycling, and responses to climate change.

  15. Comparing mass balance and adjoint methods for inverse modeling of nitrogen dioxide columns for global nitrogen oxide emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cooper, Matthew; Martin, Randall V.; Padmanabhan, Akhila; Henze, Daven K.

    2017-04-01

    Satellite observations offer information applicable to top-down constraints on emission inventories through inverse modeling. Here we compare two methods of inverse modeling for emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) from nitrogen dioxide (NO2) columns using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model and its adjoint. We treat the adjoint-based 4D-Var modeling approach for estimating top-down emissions as a benchmark against which to evaluate variations on the mass balance method. We use synthetic NO2 columns generated from known NOx emissions to serve as "truth." We find that error in mass balance inversions can be reduced by up to a factor of 2 with an iterative process that uses finite difference calculations of the local sensitivity of NO2 columns to a change in emissions. In a simplified experiment to recover local emission perturbations, horizontal smearing effects due to NOx transport are better resolved by the adjoint approach than by mass balance. For more complex emission changes, or at finer resolution, the iterative finite difference mass balance and adjoint methods produce similar global top-down inventories when inverting hourly synthetic observations, both reducing the a priori error by factors of 3-4. Inversions of simulated satellite observations from low Earth and geostationary orbits also indicate that both the mass balance and adjoint inversions produce similar results, reducing a priori error by a factor of 3. As the iterative finite difference mass balance method provides similar accuracy as the adjoint method, it offers the prospect of accurately estimating top-down NOx emissions using models that do not have an adjoint.

  16. Mass Balance Estimates of Louth Crater Water Ice and Climatic Implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bapst, J.; Byrne, S.

    2016-09-01

    We estimate the mass balance of the most-equatorward water ice mound on Mars, located in Louth crater (70N). It is expected to be ablating in the current climate. Our estimates include a wide range of atmospheric water abundances.

  17. Assessment of the global monthly mean surface insolation estimated from satellite measurements using global energy balance archive data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Li, Zhanqing; Whitlock, Charles H.; Charlock, Thomas P.

    1995-01-01

    Global sets of surface radiation budget (SRB) have been obtained from satellite programs. These satellite-based estimates need validation with ground-truth observations. This study validates the estimates of monthly mean surface insolation contained in two satellite-based SRB datasets with the surface measurements made at worldwide radiation stations from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA). One dataset was developed from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) using the algorithm of Li et al. (ERBE/SRB), and the other from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) using the algorithm of Pinker and Laszlo and that of Staylor (GEWEX/SRB). Since the ERBE/SRB data contain the surface net solar radiation only, the values of surface insolation were derived by making use of the surface albedo data contained GEWEX/SRB product. The resulting surface insolation has a bias error near zero and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) between 8 and 28 W/sq m. The RMSE is mainly associated with poor representation of surface observations within a grid cell. When the number of surface observations are sufficient, the random error is estimated to be about 5 W/sq m with present satellite-based estimates. In addition to demonstrating the strength of the retrieving method, the small random error demonstrates how well the ERBE derives from the monthly mean fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). A larger scatter is found for the comparison of transmissivity than for that of insolation. Month to month comparison of insolation reveals a weak seasonal trend in bias error with an amplitude of about 3 W/sq m. As for the insolation data from the GEWEX/SRB, larger bias errors of 5-10 W/sq m are evident with stronger seasonal trends and almost identical RMSEs.

  18. Estimating 40 years of nitrogen deposition in global biomes using the SCIAMACHY NO2 column

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lu, Xuehe; Zhang, Xiuying; Liu, Jinxun; Jin, Jiaxin

    2016-01-01

    Owing to human activity, global nitrogen (N) cycles have been altered. In the past 100 years, global N deposition has increased. Currently, the monitoring and estimating of N deposition and the evaluation of its effects on global carbon budgets are the focus of many researchers. NO2 columns retrieved by space-borne sensors provide us with a new way of exploring global N cycles and these have the ability to estimate N deposition. However, the time range limitation of NO2 columns makes the estimation of long timescale N deposition difficult. In this study we used ground-based NOx emission data to expand the density of NO2columns, and 40 years of N deposition (1970–2009) was inverted using the multivariate linear model with expanded NO2 columns. The dynamic of N deposition was examined in both global and biome scales. The results show that the average N deposition was 0.34 g N m–2 year–1 in the 2000s, which was an increase of 38.4% compared with the 1970s’. The total N deposition in different biomes is unbalanced. N deposition is only 38.0% of the global total in forest biomes; this is made up of 25.9%, 11.3, and 0.7% in tropical, temperate, and boreal forests, respectively. As N-limited biomes, there was little increase of N deposition in boreal forests. However, N deposition has increased by a total of 59.6% in tropical forests and croplands, which are N-rich biomes. Such characteristics may influence the effects on global carbon budgets.

  19. The Global Burden of Latent Tuberculosis Infection: A Re-estimation Using Mathematical Modelling

    PubMed Central

    Houben, Rein M. G. J.

    2016-01-01

    Background The existing estimate of the global burden of latent TB infection (LTBI) as “one-third” of the world population is nearly 20 y old. Given the importance of controlling LTBI as part of the End TB Strategy for eliminating TB by 2050, changes in demography and scientific understanding, and progress in TB control, it is important to re-assess the global burden of LTBI. Methods and Findings We constructed trends in annual risk in infection (ARI) for countries between 1934 and 2014 using a combination of direct estimates of ARI from LTBI surveys (131 surveys from 1950 to 2011) and indirect estimates of ARI calculated from World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates of smear positive TB prevalence from 1990 to 2014. Gaussian process regression was used to generate ARIs for country-years without data and to represent uncertainty. Estimated ARI time-series were applied to the demography in each country to calculate the number and proportions of individuals infected, recently infected (infected within 2 y), and recently infected with isoniazid (INH)-resistant strains. Resulting estimates were aggregated by WHO region. We estimated the contribution of existing infections to TB incidence in 2035 and 2050. In 2014, the global burden of LTBI was 23.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 20.4%–26.4%), amounting to approximately 1.7 billion people. WHO South-East Asia, Western-Pacific, and Africa regions had the highest prevalence and accounted for around 80% of those with LTBI. Prevalence of recent infection was 0.8% (95% UI: 0.7%–0.9%) of the global population, amounting to 55.5 (95% UI: 48.2–63.8) million individuals currently at high risk of TB disease, of which 10.9% (95% UI:10.2%–11.8%) was isoniazid-resistant. Current LTBI alone, assuming no additional infections from 2015 onwards, would be expected to generate TB incidences in the region of 16.5 per 100,000 per year in 2035 and 8.3 per 100,000 per year in 2050. Limitations included the quantity and

  20. Improved estimates of global sea level change from Ice Sheets, glaciers and land water storage using GRACE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velicogna, I.; Hsu, C. W.; Ciraci, E.; Sutterley, T. C.

    2015-12-01

    We use observations of time variable gravity from GRACE to estimate mass changes for the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets, the Glaciers and Ice Caps (GIC) and land water storage for the time period 2002-2015 and evaluate their total contribution to sea level. We calculate regional sea level changes from these present day mass fluxes using an improved scaling factor for the GRACE data that accounts for the spatial and temporal variability of the observed signal. We calculate a separate scaling factor for the annual and the long-term components of the GRACE signal. To estimate the contribution of the GIC, we use a least square mascon approach and we re-analyze recent inventories to optimize the distribution of mascons and recover the GRACE signal more accurately. We find that overall, Greenland controls 43% of the global trend in eustatic sea level rise, 16% for Antarctica and 29% for the GIC. The contribution from the GIC is dominated by the mass loss of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, followed by Alaska, Patagonia and the High Mountains of Asia. We report a marked increase in mass loss for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. In Greenland, following the 2012 high summer melt, years 2013 and 2014 have slowed down the increase in mass loss, but our results will be updated with summer 2015 observations at the meeting. In Antarctica, the mass loss is still on the rise with increased contributions from the Amundsen Sea sector and surprisingly from the Wilkes Land sector of East Antarctica, including Victoria Land. Conversely, the Queen Maud Land sector experienced a large snowfall in 2009-2013 and has now resumed to a zero mass gain since 2013. We compare sea level changes from these GRACE derived mass fluxes after including the atmospheric and ocean loading signal with sea level change from satellite radar altimetry (AVISO) corrected for steric signal of the ocean using Argo measurements and find an excellent agreement in amplitude, phase and trend in these estimates

  1. Global mass fixer algorithms for conservative tracer transport in the ECMWF model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diamantakis, M.; Flemming, J.

    2014-01-01

    Various mass fixer algorithms (MFA) have been implemented in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of ECMWF to ensure mass conservation of atmospheric tracers within the Semi-Lagrangian (SL) advection scheme. Emphasis has been placed in implementing schemes that despite being primarily global in nature adjust the solution mostly in regions where the advected field has large gradients and therefore interpolation (transport) error is assumed larger. The MFA have been tested in weather forecast, idealised and atmospheric dispersion cases. Applying these fixers to specific humidity and cloud fields did not change the accuracy of 10 day forecasts. In other words, global mass tracer conservation is achieved without deteriorating the solution accuracy. However, for longer forecast timescales or for forecasts in which correlated species are transported, experiments suggest that MFA may improve IFS forecasts.

  2. Global mass fixer algorithms for conservative tracer transport in the ECMWF model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diamantakis, M.; Flemming, J.

    2014-05-01

    Various mass fixer algorithms (MFAs) have been implemented in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to ensure mass conservation of atmospheric tracers within the semi-Lagrangian (SL) advection scheme. Emphasis has been placed in implementing schemes that despite being primarily global in nature adjust the solution mostly in regions where the advected field has large gradients and therefore interpolation (transport) error is assumed larger. The MFAs have been tested in weather forecast, idealised and atmospheric dispersion cases. Applying these fixers to specific humidity and cloud fields did not change the accuracy of 10-day forecasts. In other words, global mass tracer conservation is achieved without deteriorating the solution accuracy. However, for longer forecast timescales or for forecasts in which correlated species are transported, experiments suggest that MFAs may improve IFS forecasts.

  3. Global-scale location and distance estimates: common representations and strategies in absolute and relative judgments.

    PubMed

    Friedman, Alinda; Montello, Daniel R

    2006-03-01

    The authors examined whether absolute and relative judgments about global-scale locations and distances were generated from common representations. At the end of a 10-week class on the regional geography of the United States, participants estimated the latitudes of 16 North American cities and all possible pairwise distances between them. Although participants were relative experts, their latitude estimates revealed the presence of psychologically based regions with large gaps between them and a tendency to stretch North America southward toward the equator. The distance estimates revealed the same properties in the representation recovered via multidimensional scaling. Though the aggregated within- and between-regions distance estimates were fitted by Stevens's law (S. S. Stevens, 1957), this was an averaging artifact: The appropriateness of a power function to describe distance estimates depended on the regional membership of the cities. The authors conclude that plausible reasoning strategies, combined with regionalized representations and beliefs about the location of these relative to global landmarks, underlie global-scale latitude and distance judgments.

  4. Methodological Framework for World Health Organization Estimates of the Global Burden of Foodborne Disease

    PubMed Central

    Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Haagsma, Juanita A.; Angulo, Frederick J.; Bellinger, David C.; Cole, Dana; Döpfer, Dörte; Fazil, Aamir; Fèvre, Eric M.; Gibb, Herman J.; Hald, Tine; Kirk, Martyn D.; Lake, Robin J.; Maertens de Noordhout, Charline; Mathers, Colin D.; McDonald, Scott A.; Pires, Sara M.; Speybroeck, Niko; Thomas, M. Kate; Torgerson, Paul R.; Wu, Felicia; Havelaar, Arie H.; Praet, Nicolas

    2015-01-01

    Background The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs). This paper describes the methodological framework developed by FERG's Computational Task Force to transform epidemiological information into FBD burden estimates. Methods and Findings The global and regional burden of 31 FBDs was quantified, along with limited estimates for 5 other FBDs, using Disability-Adjusted Life Years in a hazard- and incidence-based approach. To accomplish this task, the following workflow was defined: outline of disease models and collection of epidemiological data; design and completion of a database template; development of an imputation model; identification of disability weights; probabilistic burden assessment; and estimating the proportion of the disease burden by each hazard that is attributable to exposure by food (i.e., source attribution). All computations were performed in R and the different functions were compiled in the R package 'FERG'. Traceability and transparency were ensured by sharing results and methods in an interactive way with all FERG members throughout the process. Conclusions We developed a comprehensive framework for estimating the global burden of FBDs, in which methodological simplicity and transparency were key elements. All the tools developed have been made available and can be translated into a user-friendly national toolkit for studying and monitoring food safety at the local level. PMID:26633883

  5. Estimating Climatological Bias Errors for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adler, Robert; Gu, Guojun; Huffman, George

    2012-01-01

    A procedure is described to estimate bias errors for mean precipitation by using multiple estimates from different algorithms, satellite sources, and merged products. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly product is used as a base precipitation estimate, with other input products included when they are within +/- 50% of the GPCP estimates on a zonal-mean basis (ocean and land separately). The standard deviation s of the included products is then taken to be the estimated systematic, or bias, error. The results allow one to examine monthly climatologies and the annual climatology, producing maps of estimated bias errors, zonal-mean errors, and estimated errors over large areas such as ocean and land for both the tropics and the globe. For ocean areas, where there is the largest question as to absolute magnitude of precipitation, the analysis shows spatial variations in the estimated bias errors, indicating areas where one should have more or less confidence in the mean precipitation estimates. In the tropics, relative bias error estimates (s/m, where m is the mean precipitation) over the eastern Pacific Ocean are as large as 20%, as compared with 10%-15% in the western Pacific part of the ITCZ. An examination of latitudinal differences over ocean clearly shows an increase in estimated bias error at higher latitudes, reaching up to 50%. Over land, the error estimates also locate regions of potential problems in the tropics and larger cold-season errors at high latitudes that are due to snow. An empirical technique to area average the gridded errors (s) is described that allows one to make error estimates for arbitrary areas and for the tropics and the globe (land and ocean separately, and combined). Over the tropics this calculation leads to a relative error estimate for tropical land and ocean combined of 7%, which is considered to be an upper bound because of the lack of sign-of-the-error canceling when integrating over different areas with a

  6. Estimation of the contribution of intercontinental transport during the PEACE campaign by using a global model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takigawa, Masayuki; Sudo, Kengo; Akimoto, Hajime; Kita, Kazuyuki; Takegawa, Nobuyuki; Kondo, Yutaka; Takahashi, Masaaki

    2005-11-01

    A quasi-real-time calculation system for the global distribution of ozone (O3) and its precursors, including CO, NOx, and nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs), has been newly developed by using a 3-D chemical-transport model. The model is driven by meteorological data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and produces daily 7-day forecast of the distribution of chemical species. The model was used in daily flight planning for the Pacific Exploration of Asian Continental Emission (PEACE)-A and -B aircraft measurement campaigns in January and April-May 2002, respectively. Model-calculated meteorological fields show good agreement with aircraft observations. The model also reproduced events such as polluted air masses in the lower troposphere (LT) corresponding to post-frontal outflow, a high-concentration CO plume in the upper troposphere (UT) in late spring, and the observed plume that was transported by deep convection over central China. The amount of CO transported into the free troposphere (FT) by deep convection was estimated to be about 6 Tg CO over China in May 2002. Meridional and seasonal variations in the long-range transport (LRT) of CO tracers, Asian CO tracers, and CO tracers produced from the oxidation of CH4 and NMHCs were all evaluated using tagged CO tracers. LRT CO comprised about 36% of the total CO budget in December-February 2001/2002, and about 20% in March-May 2002 in the free troposphere over Japan. In late spring, the concentration of Asian CO over southern Japan decreased compared to that in winter because the wind direction shifted from northwesterly to easterly or southerly.

  7. Uncertainties and Systematic Effects on the estimate of stellar masses in high z galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salimbeni, S.; Fontana, A.; Giallongo, E.; Grazian, A.; Menci, N.; Pentericci, L.; Santini, P.

    2009-05-01

    We discuss the uncertainties and the systematic effects that exist in the estimates of the stellar masses of high redshift galaxies, using broad band photometry, and how they affect the deduced galaxy stellar mass function. We use at this purpose the latest version of the GOODS-MUSIC catalog. In particular, we discuss the impact of different synthetic models, of the assumed initial mass function and of the selection band. Using Chariot & Bruzual 2007 and Maraston 2005 models we find masses lower than those obtained from Bruzual & Chariot 2003 models. In addition, we find a slight trend as a function of the mass itself comparing these two mass determinations with that from Bruzual & Chariot 2003 models. As consequence, the derived galaxy stellar mass functions show diverse shapes, and their slope depends on the assumed models. Despite these differences, the overall results and scenario is observed in all these cases. The masses obtained with the assumption of the Chabrier initial mass function are in average 0.24 dex lower than those from the Salpeter assumption, at all redshifts, causing a shift of galaxy stellar mass function of the same amount. Finally, using a 4.5 μm-selected sample instead of a Ks-selected one, we add a new population of highly absorbed, dusty galaxies at z~=2-3 of relatively low masses, yielding stronger constraints on the slope of the galaxy stellar mass function at lower masses.

  8. Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

    DOE PAGES

    Locatelli, R.; Bousquet, P.; Chevallier, F.; ...

    2013-10-08

    A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on methane emissions estimated in an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, obtained from 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model inter-comparison exercise, are combined with a prior scenario of methane emissions and sinks, and integrated into the three-component PYVAR-LMDZ-SACS (PYthon VARiational-Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique model with Zooming capability-Simplified Atmospheric Chemistry System) inversion system to produce 10 different methane emission estimates at the global scale for the year 2005. The same methane sinks, emissions and initial conditions have been applied to produce the 10more » synthetic observation datasets. The same inversion set-up (statistical errors, prior emissions, inverse procedure) is then applied to derive flux estimates by inverse modelling. Consequently, only differences in the modelling of atmospheric transport may cause differences in the estimated fluxes. Here in our framework, we show that transport model errors lead to a discrepancy of 27 Tg yr-1 at the global scale, representing 5% of total methane emissions. At continental and annual scales, transport model errors are proportionally larger than at the global scale, with errors ranging from 36 Tg yr-1 in North America to 7 Tg yr-1 in Boreal Eurasia (from 23 to 48%, respectively). At the model grid-scale, the spread of inverse estimates can reach 150% of the prior flux. Therefore, transport model errors contribute significantly to overall uncertainties in emission estimates by inverse modelling, especially when small spatial scales are examined. Sensitivity tests have been carried out to estimate the impact of the measurement network and the advantage of higher horizontal resolution in transport models. The large differences found between methane flux estimates inferred in these different configurations highly question the

  9. Preterm birth–associated neurodevelopmental impairment estimates at regional and global levels for 2010

    PubMed Central

    Blencowe, Hannah; Lee, Anne CC; Cousens, Simon; Bahalim, Adil; Narwal, Rajesh; Zhong, Nanbert; Chou, Doris; Say, Lale; Modi, Neena; Katz, Joanne; Vos, Theo; Marlow, Neil; Lawn, Joy E.

    2013-01-01

    Background: In 2010, there were an estimated 15 million preterm births worldwide (<37 wk gestation). Survivors are at risk of adverse outcomes, and burden estimation at global and regional levels is critical for priority setting. Methods: Systematic reviews and meta-analyses were undertaken to estimate the risk of long-term neurodevelopmental impairment for surviving preterm babies according to the level of care. A compartmental model was used to estimate the number of impaired postneonatal survivors following preterm birth in 2010. A separate model (DisMod-MR) was used to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs) for the global burden of disease 2010 study. Disability adjusted life years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of YLDs and years of life lost (YLLs). Results: In 2010, there were an estimated 13 million preterm births who survived beyond the first month. Of these, 345,000 (2.7%, uncertainty range: 269,000–420,000) were estimated to have moderate or severe neurodevelopmental impairment, and a further 567,000 (4.4%, (445,000–732,000)) were estimated to have mild neurodevelopmental impairment. Many more have specific learning or behavioral impairments or reduced physical or mental health. Fewest data are available where the burden is heaviest. Preterm birth was responsible for 77 million DALYs, 3.1% of the global total, of which only 3 million were YLDs. Conclusion: Most preterm births (>90%) survive without neurodevelopmental impairment. Developing effective means of prevention of preterm birth should be a longer term priority, but major burden reduction could be made immediately with improved coverage and quality of care. Improved newborn care would reduce mortality, especially in low-income countries and is likely to reduce impairment in survivors, particularly in middle-income settings. PMID:24366461

  10. Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

    SciTech Connect

    Locatelli, R.; Bousquet, P.; Chevallier, F.; Fortems-Cheney, A.; Szopa, S.; Saunois, M.; Agusti-Panareda, A.; Bergmann, D.; Bian, H.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Gloor, E.; Houweling, S.; Kawa, S. R.; Krol, M.; Patra, P. K.; Rigby, M.; Saito, R.

    2013-10-08

    A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on methane emissions estimated in an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, obtained from 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model inter-comparison exercise, are combined with a prior scenario of methane emissions and sinks, and integrated into the three-component PYVAR-LMDZ-SACS (PYthon VARiational-Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique model with Zooming capability-Simplified Atmospheric Chemistry System) inversion system to produce 10 different methane emission estimates at the global scale for the year 2005. The same methane sinks, emissions and initial conditions have been applied to produce the 10 synthetic observation datasets. The same inversion set-up (statistical errors, prior emissions, inverse procedure) is then applied to derive flux estimates by inverse modelling. Consequently, only differences in the modelling of atmospheric transport may cause differences in the estimated fluxes. Here in our framework, we show that transport model errors lead to a discrepancy of 27 Tg yr-1 at the global scale, representing 5% of total methane emissions. At continental and annual scales, transport model errors are proportionally larger than at the global scale, with errors ranging from 36 Tg yr-1 in North America to 7 Tg yr-1 in Boreal Eurasia (from 23 to 48%, respectively). At the model grid-scale, the spread of inverse estimates can reach 150% of the prior flux. Therefore, transport model errors contribute significantly to overall uncertainties in emission estimates by inverse modelling, especially when small spatial scales are examined. Sensitivity tests have been carried out to estimate the impact of the measurement network and the advantage of higher horizontal resolution in transport models. The large differences found between methane flux estimates inferred in these different

  11. Synthesizing Global and Local Datasets to Estimate Jurisdictional Forest Carbon Fluxes in Berau, Indonesia

    PubMed Central

    Griscom, Bronson W.; Ellis, Peter W.; Baccini, Alessandro; Marthinus, Delon; Evans, Jeffrey S.; Ruslandi

    2016-01-01

    Background Forest conservation efforts are increasingly being implemented at the scale of sub-national jurisdictions in order to mitigate global climate change and provide other ecosystem services. We see an urgent need for robust estimates of historic forest carbon emissions at this scale, as the basis for credible measures of climate and other benefits achieved. Despite the arrival of a new generation of global datasets on forest area change and biomass, confusion remains about how to produce credible jurisdictional estimates of forest emissions. We demonstrate a method for estimating the relevant historic forest carbon fluxes within the Regency of Berau in eastern Borneo, Indonesia. Our method integrates best available global and local datasets, and includes a comprehensive analysis of uncertainty at the regency scale. Principal Findings and Significance We find that Berau generated 8.91 ± 1.99 million tonnes of net CO2 emissions per year during 2000–2010. Berau is an early frontier landscape where gross emissions are 12 times higher than gross sequestration. Yet most (85%) of Berau’s original forests are still standing. The majority of net emissions were due to conversion of native forests to unspecified agriculture (43% of total), oil palm (28%), and fiber plantations (9%). Most of the remainder was due to legal commercial selective logging (17%). Our overall uncertainty estimate offers an independent basis for assessing three other estimates for Berau. Two other estimates were above the upper end of our uncertainty range. We emphasize the importance of including an uncertainty range for all parameters of the emissions equation to generate a comprehensive uncertainty estimate–which has not been done before. We believe comprehensive estimates of carbon flux uncertainty are increasingly important as national and international institutions are challenged with comparing alternative estimates and identifying a credible range of historic emissions values

  12. Methane Emissions From Global Paddy Rice Agriculture - a New Estimate Based on DNDC Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hagen, S. C.; Li, C.; Salas, W.; Ingraham, P.; Li, J.; Beach, R.; Frolking, S.

    2012-12-01

    Roughly one-quarter of global methane emissions to the atmosphere come from the agricultural sector. Agricultural emissions are dominated by livestock (ruminants) and paddy-rice agriculture. We report on a new estimate of global methane emissions from paddy rice c.2010, based on DNDC model simulations of rice cropping around the world. We first generated a global map of rice cropping at 0.5°-resolution, based on existing global crop maps and various other published data. For each 0.5° grid cell that has rice agriculture, we simulated all rice cropping systems that our mapping indicated to be occurring there - irrigated and/or rainfed; single-rice, double-rice, triple-rice, and/or rice-rotated with other upland crops - under local climate and soil conditions, with assumptions about crop management (e.g., fertilizer type and amount, irrigation, flooding frequency and duration, manure application, tillage, crop residue management). We estimate global paddy rice emissions at 23 Tg CH4/yr from 120 Mha of rice paddies (land area) and 160 Mha of rice cropping (harvested area) for the baseline management scenario. We also report on the spatial distribution of these emissions, and the impacts of various management alternatives (flooding methods, fertilizer types, crop residue incorporation etc.) on yield, soil carbon sequestration and emissions of methane and nitrous oxide. For example, simulations with continuous flooding on all paddies increased simulated global paddy rice emissions to 33 Tg CH4/yr, while simulations where all fertilizer was applied as ammonium sulfate reduced simulated global paddy rice emissions to about 19 Tg CH4/yr. Simulated global paddy rice yield was about 320 Tg C in grain.

  13. A New Estimation of Global Soil Greenhouse Gas Fluxes Using a Simple Data-Oriented Model

    PubMed Central

    Hashimoto, Shoji

    2012-01-01

    Soil greenhouse gas fluxes (particularly CO2, CH4, and N2O) play important roles in climate change. However, despite the importance of these soil greenhouse gases, the number of reports on global soil greenhouse gas fluxes is limited. Here, new estimates are presented for global soil CO2 emission (total soil respiration), CH4 uptake, and N2O emission fluxes, using a simple data-oriented model. The estimated global fluxes for CO2 emission, CH4 uptake, and N2O emission were 78 Pg C yr−1 (Monte Carlo 95% confidence interval, 64–95 Pg C yr−1), 18 Tg C yr−1 (11–23 Tg C yr−1), and 4.4 Tg N yr−1 (1.4–11.1 Tg N yr−1), respectively. Tropical regions were the largest contributor of all of the gases, particularly the CO2 and N2O fluxes. The soil CO2 and N2O fluxes had more pronounced seasonal patterns than the soil CH4 flux. The collected estimates, including both the previous and the present estimates, demonstrate that the means of the best estimates from each study were 79 Pg C yr−1 (291 Pg CO2 yr−1; coefficient of variation, CV = 13%, N = 6) for CO2, 21 Tg C yr−1 (29 Tg CH4 yr−1; CV = 24%, N = 24) for CH4, and 7.8 Tg N yr−1 (12.2 Tg N2O yr−1; CV = 38%, N = 11) for N2O. For N2O, the mean of the estimates that was calculated by excluding the earliest two estimates was 6.6 Tg N yr−1 (10.4 Tg N2O yr−1; CV = 22%, N = 9). The reported estimates vary and have large degrees of uncertainty but their overall magnitudes are in general agreement. To further minimize the uncertainty of soil greenhouse gas flux estimates, it is necessary to build global databases and identify key processes in describing global soil greenhouse gas fluxes. PMID:22876295

  14. A new estimation of global soil greenhouse gas fluxes using a simple data-oriented model.

    PubMed

    Hashimoto, Shoji

    2012-01-01

    Soil greenhouse gas fluxes (particularly CO(2), CH(4), and N(2)O) play important roles in climate change. However, despite the importance of these soil greenhouse gases, the number of reports on global soil greenhouse gas fluxes is limited. Here, new estimates are presented for global soil CO(2) emission (total soil respiration), CH(4) uptake, and N(2)O emission fluxes, using a simple data-oriented model. The estimated global fluxes for CO(2) emission, CH(4) uptake, and N(2)O emission were 78 Pg C yr(-1) (Monte Carlo 95% confidence interval, 64-95 Pg C yr(-1)), 18 Tg C yr(-1) (11-23 Tg C yr(-1)), and 4.4 Tg N yr(-1) (1.4-11.1 Tg N yr(-1)), respectively. Tropical regions were the largest contributor of all of the gases, particularly the CO(2) and N(2)O fluxes. The soil CO(2) and N(2)O fluxes had more pronounced seasonal patterns than the soil CH(4) flux. The collected estimates, including both the previous and the present estimates, demonstrate that the means of the best estimates from each study were 79 Pg C yr(-1) (291 Pg CO(2) yr(-1); coefficient of variation, CV = 13%, N = 6) for CO(2), 21 Tg C yr(-1) (29 Tg CH(4) yr(-1); CV = 24%, N = 24) for CH(4), and 7.8 Tg N yr(-1) (12.2 Tg N(2)O yr(-1); CV = 38%, N = 11) for N(2)O. For N(2)O, the mean of the estimates that was calculated by excluding the earliest two estimates was 6.6 Tg N yr(-1) (10.4 Tg N(2)O yr(-1); CV = 22%, N = 9). The reported estimates vary and have large degrees of uncertainty but their overall magnitudes are in general agreement. To further minimize the uncertainty of soil greenhouse gas flux estimates, it is necessary to build global databases and identify key processes in describing global soil greenhouse gas fluxes.

  15. Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Chuang; Liu, Bing; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Lobell, David B; Huang, Yao; Huang, Mengtian; Yao, Yitong; Bassu, Simona; Ciais, Philippe; Durand, Jean-Louis; Elliott, Joshua; Ewert, Frank; Janssens, Ivan A; Li, Tao; Lin, Erda; Liu, Qiang; Martre, Pierre; Müller, Christoph; Peng, Shushi; Peñuelas, Josep; Ruane, Alex C; Wallach, Daniel; Wang, Tao; Wu, Donghai; Liu, Zhuo; Zhu, Yan; Zhu, Zaichun; Asseng, Senthold

    2017-08-29

    Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.

  16. Temperature Increase Reduces Global Yields of Major Crops in Four Independent Estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhao, Chuang; Liu, Bing; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Lobell, David B.; Huang, Yao; Huang, Mengtian; Yao, Yitong; Bassu, Simona; Ciais, Philippe; hide

    2017-01-01

    Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multi-method analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.

  17. Experimental design for estimating parameters of rate-limited mass transfer: Analysis of stream tracer studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wagner, B.J.; Harvey, J.W.

    1997-01-01

    Tracer experiments are valuable tools for analyzing the transport characteristics of streams and their interactions with shallow groundwater. The focus of this work is the design of tracer studies in high-gradient stream systems subject to advection, dispersion, groundwater inflow, and exchange between the active channel and zones in surface or subsurface water where flow is stagnant or slow moving. We present a methodology for (1) evaluating and comparing alternative stream tracer experiment designs and (2) identifying those combinations of stream transport properties that pose limitations to parameter estimation and therefore a challenge to tracer test design. The methodology uses the concept of global parameter uncertainty analysis, which couples solute transport simulation with parameter uncertainty analysis in a Monte Carlo framework. Two general conclusions resulted from this work. First, the solute injection and sampling strategy has an important effect on the reliability of transport parameter estimates. We found that constant injection with sampling through concentration rise, plateau, and fall provided considerably more reliable parameter estimates than a pulse injection across the spectrum of transport scenarios likely encountered in high-gradient streams. Second, for a given tracer test design, the uncertainties in mass transfer and storage-zone parameter estimates are strongly dependent on the experimental Damkohler number, DaI, which is a dimensionless combination of the rates of exchange between the stream and storage zones, the stream-water velocity, and the stream reach length of the experiment. Parameter uncertainties are lowest at DaI values on the order of 1.0. When DaI values are much less than 1.0 (owing to high velocity, long exchange timescale, and/or short reach length), parameter uncertainties are high because only a small amount of tracer interacts with storage zones in the reach. For the opposite conditions (DaI >> 1.0), solute exchange

  18. Global estimation of effective plant rooting depth: Implications for hydrological modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Yuting; Donohue, Randall J.; McVicar, Tim R.

    2016-10-01

    Plant rooting depth (Zr) is a key parameter in hydrological and biogeochemical models, yet the global spatial distribution of Zr is largely unknown due to the difficulties in its direct measurement. Additionally, Zr observations are usually only representative of a single plant or several plants, which can differ greatly from the effective Zr over a modeling unit (e.g., catchment or grid-box). Here, we provide a global parameterization of an analytical Zr model that balances the marginal carbon cost and benefit of deeper roots, and produce a climatological (i.e., 1982-2010 average) global Zr map. To test the Zr estimates, we apply the estimated Zr in a highly transparent hydrological model (i.e., the Budyko-Choudhury-Porporato (BCP) model) to estimate mean annual actual evapotranspiration (E) across the globe. We then compare the estimated E with both water balance-based E observations at 32 major catchments and satellite grid-box retrievals across the globe. Our results show that the BCP model, when implemented with Zr estimated herein, optimally reproduced the spatial pattern of E at both scales (i.e., R2 = 0.94, RMSD = 74 mm yr-1 for catchments, and R2 = 0.90, RMSD = 125 mm yr-1 for grid-boxes) and provides improved model outputs when compared to BCP model results from two already existing global Zr data sets. These results suggest that our Zr estimates can be effectively used in state-of-the-art hydrological models, and potentially biogeochemical models, where the determination of Zr currently largely relies on biome type-based look-up tables.

  19. Global lightning NOx production estimated by an assimilation of multiple satellite data sets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miyazaki, K.; Eskes, H. J.; Sudo, K.; Zhang, C.

    2014-04-01

    The global source of lightning-produced NOx (LNOx) is estimated by assimilating observations of NO2, O3, HNO3, and CO measured by multiple satellite measurements into a chemical transport model. Included are observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instruments. The assimilation of multiple chemical data sets with different vertical sensitivity profiles provides comprehensive constraints on the global LNOx source while improving the representations of the entire chemical system affecting atmospheric NOx, including surface emissions and inflows from the stratosphere. The annual global LNOx source amount and NO production efficiency are estimated at 6.3 Tg N yr-1 and 310 mol NO flash-1, respectively. Sensitivity studies with perturbed satellite data sets, model and data assimilation settings lead to an error estimate of about 1.4 Tg N yr-1 on this global LNOx source. These estimates are significantly different from those estimated from a parameter inversion that optimizes only the LNOx source from NO2 observations alone, which may lead to an overestimate of the source adjustment. The total LNOx source is predominantly corrected by the assimilation of OMI NO2 observations, while TES and MLS observations add important constraints on the vertical source profile. The results indicate that the widely used lightning parameterization based on the C-shape assumption underestimates the source in the upper troposphere and overestimates the peak source height by up to about 1 km over land and the tropical western Pacific. Adjustments are larger over ocean than over land, suggesting that the cloud height dependence is too weak over the ocean in the Price and Rind (1992) approach. The significantly improved agreement between the analyzed ozone fields and independent observations gives confidence in the performance of the LNOx source

  20. Global fire emission estimates (2007-2012) derived from inversion of formaldehyde columns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bauwens, Maite; Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Müller, Jean-Francois; De Smedt, Isabelle; Van Roozendael, Michel

    2014-05-01

    Wildfires have a strong impact on the chemistry and composition of the atmosphere and the radiative forcing. The fire emission estimates bear, however, important uncertainties due to the limited amount of field measurements, uncertainties in satellite burned area products, as well as empirical relations used for fuel type allocations. Atmospheric inversions are an alternative approach that provides new independent constraints on the fire estimates. This method involves measurements of trace gases combined with atmospheric models, where optimization algorithms are used to minimize the discrepancy between the model and the observations by adjusting the emission estimates. In this communication, we present global emission estimates of non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), inferred from inversion of formaldehyde (HCHO) columns retrieved from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) instrument (De Smedt et al., 2012). The IMAGESv2 global CTM provides the relationship between the emissions and the vertical columns. The Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFEDv3, van der Werf et al., 2010) is used as a priori bottom-up inventory in the model. The agreement between formaldehyde columns calculated by the IMAGESv2 model and the formaldehyde columns from GOME-2 is optimized using the adjoint modelling technique (Stavrakou et al., 2009). The obtained top-down fire emission estimates between 2007 and 2012 are available at the GlobEmission data portal (http://www.globemission.eu) on a monthly basis and at 0.5°x0.5° spatial resolution. The emission estimates are evaluated against three independent emission inventories: GFEDv3 (van der Werf et al., 2010), GFAS (Kaiser et al., 2012) and FINN (Wiedinmyer et al., 2011). Furthermore, simulated CO columns over the fire-affected regions will be compared with CO columns retrieved from the IASI sensor (George et al., 2009).

  1. Revising estimates of global GPP using new information from eddy covariance and satellite datasets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Y.; Jin, Y.; Goulden, M. L.; Randerson, J. T.

    2009-12-01

    Gross Primary Production (GPP) is defined as the sum of photosynthesis by all leaves from all plants per unit of ground area and is typically measured at the scale of an ecosystem over a period of hours to years. Obtaining precise estimates of contemporary GPP at regional and global scales is an important first step towards developing realistic prognostic models that can be used to understand the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems and feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle. Major technical and theoretical advances have improved our understanding of GPP over the past decade. The proliferation of eddy covariance towers and the systematic organization of these data through Fluxnet provide an important new constraint on the distribution of GPP across ecosystems and the sensitivity GPP to variability to climate and stand age. Concurrently, the availability of high quality remote sensing products has increased significantly as a result of instruments on Terra and Aqua satellites, making it possible to monitor biosphere continuously at a global scale on a time span of a week to 10 days. Here we revise global estimates of GPP using a light-use-efficiency (LUE) model. We used enhanced vegetation index (EVI) measurements from MODIS to estimate the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR). PAR was derived as a product of surface shortwave radiation measurements from Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) version 5 and conversion factor from International Satellite Cloud Climatology Program (ISCCP). LUE was optimized using Ameriflux GPP estimates and other estimates from other published eddy covariance studies. Scalars for temperature and moisture stress were applied locally using reanalysis observations from GEOS 5. In our analysis we tested different model structures, evaluating their success at predicting GPP at an independent set of measurement sites. We find that the global estimates of GPP of 120 Pg C/yr that are widely

  2. EFFECT OF UNCERTAINTIES IN STELLAR MODEL PARAMETERS ON ESTIMATED MASSES AND RADII OF SINGLE STARS

    SciTech Connect

    Basu, Sarbani; Verner, Graham A.; Chaplin, William J.; Elsworth, Yvonne E-mail: gav@bison.ph.bham.ac.uk E-mail: y.p.elsworth@bham.ac.uk

    2012-02-10

    Accurate and precise values of radii and masses of stars are needed to correctly estimate properties of extrasolar planets. We examine the effect of uncertainties in stellar model parameters on estimates of the masses, radii, and average densities of solar-type stars. We find that in the absence of seismic data on solar-like oscillations, stellar masses can be determined to a greater accuracy than either stellar radii or densities; but to get reasonably accurate results the effective temperature, log g, and metallicity must be measured to high precision. When seismic data are available, stellar density is the most well-determined property, followed by radius, with mass the least well-determined property. Uncertainties in stellar convection, quantified in terms of uncertainties in the value of the mixing length parameter, cause the most significant errors in the estimates of stellar properties.

  3. Improving GRACE Mass Estimates for the Baltic Sea and Validation Using in Situ Measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Virtanen, J.; Mäkinen, J.; Bilker-Koivula, M.; Nordman, M.; Virtanen, H.; Shum, C.; Guo, J.; Wang, L.; Kangas, A.; Johansson, M.; Thomas, M.

    2008-12-01

    The variation in the sea level of the semi-closed Baltic Sea has been monitored in several complimentary ways. Now GRACE provides a method to directly measure the total mass variability in the Baltic. Using in situ and modelled Baltic data, we show that GRACE is able to recover the variation in the total water mass. We derive sea level surfaces from tide gauge data and estimate steric effects using hydrodynamic models as well as in situ salinity and temperature measurements for their verification. With its areal extent (~400 km x 1000 km) as well as fast temporal variations (hourly to monthly), the Baltic Sea provides a challenging test field for the temporal and spatial resolution of GRACE. We use both the standard monthly GRACE gravity field solutions and regional solutions and compare their capability to recover Baltic water mass variations. Due to spatial averaging, the GRACE mass estimates over the elongated area are contaminated by signals outside the region. The contribution of continental hydrology can be removed using water storage models to estimate mass variations on surrounding land areas. We discuss the processing steps required for the different GRACE solutions to improve the GRACE mass estimates for the Baltic, including mitigation of signal leakage as a result of spatial filtering. The capability of GRACE to recover internal mass redistributions in the Baltic is also investigated. Finally, we discuss the reduction of the Baltic contribution for studying land-uplift signal due to post-glacial rebound.

  4. Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Locatelli, R.; Bousquet, P.; Chevallier, F.; Fortems-Cheney, A.; Szopa, S.; Saunois, M.; Agusti-Panareda, A.; Bergmann, D.; Bian, H.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Gloor, E.; Houweling, S.; Kawa, S. R.; Krol, M.; Patra, P. K.; Prinn, R. G.; Rigby, M.; Saito, R.; Wilson, C.

    2013-04-01

    A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on the methane emissions estimated by an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, given by 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model exercise, are combined with a prior scenario of methane emissions and sinks, and integrated into the PYVAR-LMDZ-SACS inverse system to produce 10 different methane emission estimates at the global scale for the year 2005. The same set-up has been used to produce the synthetic observations and to compute flux estimates by inverse modelling, which means that only differences in the modelling of atmospheric transport may cause differences in the estimated fluxes. In our framework, we show that transport model errors lead to a discrepancy of 27 Tg CH4 per year at the global scale, representing 5% of the total methane emissions. At continental and yearly scales, transport model errors have bigger impacts depending on the region, ranging from 36 Tg CH4 in north America to 7 Tg CH4 in Boreal Eurasian (from 23% to 48%). At the model gridbox scale, the spread of inverse estimates can even reach 150% of the prior flux. Thus, transport model errors contribute to significant uncertainties on the methane estimates by inverse modelling, especially when small spatial scales are invoked. Sensitivity tests have been carried out to estimate the impact of the measurement network and the advantage of higher resolution models. The analysis of methane estimated fluxes in these different configurations questions the consistency of transport model errors in current inverse systems. For future methane inversions, an improvement in the modelling of the atmospheric transport would make the estimations more accurate. Likewise, errors of the observation covariance matrix should be more consistently prescribed in future inversions in order to limit the impact of transport model errors on estimated methane fluxes.

  5. Parameter estimation and control for a neural mass model based on the unscented Kalman filter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Xian; Gao, Qing

    2013-10-01

    Recent progress in Kalman filters to estimate states and parameters in nonlinear systems has provided the possibility of applying such approaches to neural systems. We here apply the nonlinear method of unscented Kalman filters (UKFs) to observe states and estimate parameters in a neural mass model that can simulate distinct rhythms in electroencephalography (EEG) including dynamical evolution during epilepsy seizures. We demonstrate the efficiency of the UKF in estimating states and parameters. We also develop an UKF-based control strategy to modulate the dynamics of the neural mass model. In this strategy the UKF plays the role of observing states, and the control law is constructed via the estimated states. We demonstrate the feasibility of using such a strategy to suppress epileptiform spikes in the neural mass model.

  6. Global precipitation estimates based on a technique for combining satellite-based estimates, rain gauge analysis, and NWP model precipitation information

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Rudolf, Bruno; Schneider, Udo; Keehn, Peter R.

    1995-01-01

    The 'satellite-gauge model' (SGM) technique is described for combining precipitation estimates from microwave satellite data, infrared satellite data, rain gauge analyses, and numerical weather prediction models into improved estimates of global precipitation. Throughout, monthly estimates on a 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees lat-long grid are employed. First, a multisatellite product is developed using a combination of low-orbit microwave and geosynchronous-orbit infrared data in the latitude range 40 degrees N - 40 degrees S (the adjusted geosynchronous precipitation index) and low-orbit microwave data alone at higher latitudes. Then the rain gauge analysis is brougth in, weighting each field by its inverse relative error variance to produce a nearly global, observationally based precipitation estimate. To produce a complete global estimate, the numerical model results are used to fill data voids in the combined satellite-gauge estimate. Our sequential approach to combining estimates allows a user to select the multisatellite estimate, the satellite-gauge estimate, or the full SGM estimate (observationally based estimates plus the model information). The primary limitation in the method is imperfections in the estimation of relative error for the individual fields. The SGM results for one year of data (July 1987 to June 1988) show important differences from the individual estimates, including model estimates as well as climatological estimates. In general, the SGM results are drier in the subtropics than the model and climatological results, reflecting the relatively dry microwave estimates that dominate the SGM in oceanic regions.

  7. Global precipitation estimates based on a technique for combining satellite-based estimates, rain gauge analysis, and NWP model precipitation information

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Rudolf, Bruno; Schneider, Udo; Keehn, Peter R.

    1995-01-01

    The 'satellite-gauge model' (SGM) technique is described for combining precipitation estimates from microwave satellite data, infrared satellite data, rain gauge analyses, and numerical weather prediction models into improved estimates of global precipitation. Throughout, monthly estimates on a 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees lat-long grid are employed. First, a multisatellite product is developed using a combination of low-orbit microwave and geosynchronous-orbit infrared data in the latitude range 40 degrees N - 40 degrees S (the adjusted geosynchronous precipitation index) and low-orbit microwave data alone at higher latitudes. Then the rain gauge analysis is brougth in, weighting each field by its inverse relative error variance to produce a nearly global, observationally based precipitation estimate. To produce a complete global estimate, the numerical model results are used to fill data voids in the combined satellite-gauge estimate. Our sequential approach to combining estimates allows a user to select the multisatellite estimate, the satellite-gauge estimate, or the full SGM estimate (observationally based estimates plus the model information). The primary limitation in the method is imperfections in the estimation of relative error for the individual fields. The SGM results for one year of data (July 1987 to June 1988) show important differences from the individual estimates, including model estimates as well as climatological estimates. In general, the SGM results are drier in the subtropics than the model and climatological results, reflecting the relatively dry microwave estimates that dominate the SGM in oceanic regions.

  8. Abell 315: reconciling cluster mass estimates from kinematics, X-ray, and lensing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biviano, A.; Popesso, P.; Dietrich, J. P.; Zhang, Y.-Y.; Erfanianfar, G.; Romaniello, M.; Sartoris, B.

    2017-06-01

    Context. Determination of cluster masses is a fundamental tool for cosmology. Comparing mass estimates obtained by different probes allows to understand possible systematic uncertainties. Aims: The cluster Abell 315 is an interesting test case, since it has been claimed to be underluminous in X-ray for its mass (determined via kinematics and weak lensing). We have undertaken new spectroscopic observations with the aim of improving the cluster mass estimate, using the distribution of galaxies in projected phase space. Methods: We identified cluster members in our new spectroscopic sample. We estimated the cluster mass from the projected phase-space distribution of cluster members using the MAMPOSSt method. In doing this estimate we took into account the presence of substructures that we were able to identify. Results: We identify several cluster substructures. The main two have an overlapping spatial distribution, suggesting a (past or ongoing) collision along the line-of-sight. After accounting for the presence of substructures, the mass estimate of Abell 315 from kinematics is reduced by a factor 4, down to M200 = 0.8+0.6-0.4 × 1014M⊙. We also find evidence that the cluster mass concentration is unusually low, c200 ≡ r200/r-2 ≲ 1. Using our new estimate of c200 we revise the weak lensing mass estimate down to M200 = 1.8+1.7-0.9 × 1014M⊙. Our new mass estimates are in agreement with that derived from the cluster X-ray luminosity via a scaling relation, M200 = 0.9 ± 0.2 × 1014M⊙. Conclusions: Abell 315 no longer belongs to the class of X-ray underluminous clusters. Its mass estimate was inflated by the presence of an undetected subcluster in collision with the main cluster. Whether the presence of undetected line-of-sight structures can be a general explanation for all X-ray underluminous clusters remains to be explored using a statistically significant sample. Based in large part on data collected at the ESO VLT (prog. ID 083.A-0930).Full Table 1 and

  9. Equation reliability of soil ingestion estimates in mass-balance soil ingestion studies.

    PubMed

    Stanek Iii, Edward J; Xu, Bo; Calabrese, Edward J

    2012-03-01

    Exposure to chemicals from ingestion of contaminated soil may be an important pathway with potential health consequences for children. A key parameter used in assessing this exposure is the quantity of soil ingested, with estimates based on four short longitudinal mass-balance soil ingestion studies among children. The estimates use trace elements in the soil with low bioavailability that are minimally present in food. Soil ingestion corresponds to the excess trace element amounts excreted, after subtracting trace element amounts ingested from food and medications, expressed as an equivalent quantity of soil. The short duration of mass-balance studies, different concentrations of trace elements in food and soil, and potential for trace elements to be ingested from other nonsoil, nonfood sources contribute to variability and bias in the estimates. We develop a stochastic model for a soil ingestion estimator based on a trace element that accounts for critical features of the mass-balance equation. Using results from four mass-balance soil ingestion studies, we estimate the accuracy of soil ingestion estimators for different trace elements, and identify subjects where the difference between Al and Si estimates is larger (>3 RMSE) than expected. Such large differences occur in fewer than 12% of subjects in each of the four studies. We recommend the use of such criteria to flag and exclude subjects from soil ingestion analyses. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Estimating global carbon uptake by lichens and bryophytes with a process-based model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porada, P.; Weber, B.; Elbert, W.; Pöschl, U.; Kleidon, A.

    2013-11-01

    Lichens and bryophytes are abundant globally and they may even form the dominant autotrophs in (sub)polar ecosystems, in deserts and at high altitudes. Moreover, they can be found in large amounts as epiphytes in old-growth forests. Here, we present the first process-based model which estimates the net carbon uptake by these organisms at the global scale, thus assessing their significance for biogeochemical cycles. The model uses gridded climate data and key properties of the habitat (e.g. disturbance intervals) to predict processes which control net carbon uptake, namely photosynthesis, respiration, water uptake and evaporation. It relies on equations used in many dynamical vegetation models, which are combined with concepts specific to lichens and bryophytes, such as poikilohydry or the effect of water content on CO2 diffusivity. To incorporate the great functional variation of lichens and bryophytes at the global scale, the model parameters are characterised by broad ranges of possible values instead of a single, globally uniform value. The predicted terrestrial net uptake of 0.34 to 3.3 Gt yr-1 of carbon and global patterns of productivity are in accordance with empirically-derived estimates. Considering that the assimilated carbon can be invested in processes such as weathering or nitrogen fixation, lichens and bryophytes may play a significant role in biogeochemical cycles.

  11. Estimating global carbon uptake by lichens and bryophytes with a process-based model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porada, P.; Weber, B.; Elbert, W.; Pöschl, U.; Kleidon, A.

    2013-02-01

    Lichens and bryophytes are abundant globally and they may even form the dominant autotrophs in (sub)polar ecosystems, in deserts and at high altitudes. Moreover, they can be found in large amounts as epiphytes in old-growth forests. Here, we present the first process-based model which estimates the net carbon uptake by these organisms at the global scale, thus assessing their significance for biogeochemical cycles. The model uses gridded climate data and key properties of the habitat (e.g. disturbance intervals) to predict processes which control net carbon uptake, namely photosynthesis, respiration, water uptake and evaporation. It relies on equations used in many dynamical vegetation models, which are combined with concepts specific to lichens and bryophytes, such as poikilohydry or the effect of water content on CO2 diffusivity. To incorporate the great functional variation of lichens and bryophytes at the global scale, the model parameters are characterised by broad ranges of possible values instead of a single, globally uniform value. The predicted terrestrial net carbon uptake of 0.34 to 3.3 (Gt C) yr-1 and global patterns of productivity are in accordance with empirically-derived estimates. Considering that the assimilated carbon can be invested in processes such as weathering or nitrogen fixation, lichens and bryophytes may play a significant role in biogeochemical cycles.

  12. A new global anthropogenic heat estimation based on high-resolution nighttime light data.

    PubMed

    Yang, Wangming; Luan, Yibo; Liu, Xiaolei; Yu, Xiaoyong; Miao, Lijuan; Cui, Xuefeng

    2017-08-22

    Consumption of fossil fuel resources leads to global warming and climate change. Apart from the negative impact of greenhouse gases on the climate, the increasing emission of anthropogenic heat from energy consumption also brings significant impacts on urban ecosystems and the surface energy balance. The objective of this work is to develop a new method of estimating the global anthropogenic heat budget and validate it on the global scale with a high precision and resolution dataset. A statistical algorithm was applied to estimate the annual mean anthropogenic heat (AH-DMSP) from 1992 to 2010 at 1×1 km(2) spatial resolution for the entire planet. AH-DMSP was validated for both provincial and city scales, and results indicate that our dataset performs well at both scales. Compared with other global anthropogenic heat datasets, the AH-DMSP has a higher precision and finer spatial distribution. Although there are some limitations, the AH-DMSP could provide reliable, multi-scale anthropogenic heat information, which could be used for further research on regional or global climate change and urban ecosystems.

  13. Internally Consistent MODIS Estimate of Aerosol Clear-Sky Radiative Effect Over the Global Oceans

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Remer, Lorraine A.; Kaufman, Yoram J.

    2004-01-01

    Modern satellite remote sensing, and in particular the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), offers a measurement-based pathway to estimate global aerosol radiative effects and aerosol radiative forcing. Over the Oceans, MODIS retrieves the total aerosol optical thickness, but also reports which combination of the 9 different aerosol models was used to obtain the retrieval. Each of the 9 models is characterized by a size distribution and complex refractive index, which through Mie calculations correspond to a unique set of single scattering albedo, assymetry parameter and spectral extinction for each model. The combination of these sets of optical parameters weighted by the optical thickness attributed to each model in the retrieval produces the best fit to the observed radiances at the top of the atmosphere. Thus the MODIS Ocean aerosol retrieval provides us with (1) An observed distribution of global aerosol loading, and (2) An internally-consistent, observed, distribution of aerosol optical models that when used in combination will best represent the radiances at the top of the atmosphere. We use these two observed global distributions to initialize the column climate model by Chou and Suarez to calculate the aerosol radiative effect at top of the atmosphere and the radiative efficiency of the aerosols over the global oceans. We apply the analysis to 3 years of MODIS retrievals from the Terra satellite and produce global and regional, seasonally varying, estimates of aerosol radiative effect over the clear-sky oceans.

  14. Estimating the global terrestrial hydrologic cycle through modeling, remote sensing, and data assimilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, Ming; Troy, Tara; Sahoo, Alok; Sheffield, Justin; Wood, Eric

    2010-05-01

    Documentation of the water cycle and its evolution over time is a primary scientific goal of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and fundamental to assessing global change impacts. In developed countries, observation systems that include in-situ, remote sensing and modeled data can provide long-term, consistent and generally high quality datasets of water cycle variables. The export of these technologies to less developed regions has been rare, but it is these regions where information on water availability and change is probably most needed in the face of regional environmental change due to climate, land use and water management. In these data sparse regions, in situ data alone are insufficient to develop a comprehensive picture of how the water cycle is changing, and strategies that merge in-situ, model and satellite observations within a framework that results in consistent water cycle records is essential. Such an approach is envisaged by the Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GOESS), but has yet to be applied. The goal of this study is to quantify the variation and changes in the global water cycle over the past 50 years. We evaluate the global water cycle using a variety of independent large-scale datasets of hydrologic variables that are used to bridge the gap between sparse in-situ observations, including remote-sensing based retrievals, observation-forced hydrologic modeling, and weather model reanalyses. A data assimilation framework that blends these disparate sources of information together in a consistent fashion with attention to budget closure is applied to make best estimates of the global water cycle and its variation. The framework consists of a constrained Kalman filter applied to the water budget equation. With imperfect estimates of the water budget components, the equation additionally has an error residual term that is redistributed across the budget components using error statistics, which are estimated from the

  15. Applicability of geomechanical classifications for estimation of strength properties in Brazilian rock masses.

    PubMed

    Santos, Tatiana B; Lana, Milene S; Santos, Allan E M; Silveira, Larissa R C

    2017-01-01

    Many authors have been proposed several correlation equations between geomechanical classifications and strength parameters. However, these correlation equations have been based in rock masses with different characteristics when compared to Brazilian rock masses. This paper aims to study the applicability of the geomechanical classifications to obtain strength parameters of three Brazilian rock masses. Four classification systems have been used; the Rock Mass Rating (RMR), the Rock Mass Quality (Q), the Geological Strength Index (GSI) and the Rock Mass Index (RMi). A strong rock mass and two soft rock masses with different degrees of weathering located in the cities of Ouro Preto and Mariana, Brazil; were selected for the study. Correlation equations were used to estimate the strength properties of these rock masses. However, such correlations do not always provide compatible results with the rock mass behavior. For the calibration of the strength values obtained through the use of classification systems, ​​stability analyses of failures in these rock masses have been done. After calibration of these parameters, the applicability of the various correlation equations found in the literature have been discussed. According to the results presented in this paper, some of these equations are not suitable for the studied rock masses.

  16. Future global water resources with respect to climate change and water withdrawals as estimated by a dynamic global vegetation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murray, S. J.; Foster, P. N.; Prentice, I. C.

    2012-07-01

    SummaryThe Land-surface Processes and eXchanges (LPX) dynamic global vegetation model, which incorporates process-based representations of the terrestrial biosphere, is used to simulate the effects of climatic change (via pattern-scaled temperature change scenarios based on six general circulation models) on global and large catchment freshwater resources towards the end of the 21st century. Socio-economic change is addressed by using water withdrawal estimates from the WaterGAP hydrological model. Climate change and population growth together increase water stress in many regions, particularly between 10°N and 50°N, for 2070-2099 relative to 1961-1990. Changes in runoff are most highly correlated with precipitation in 75% of the large global catchments tested. However, in all catchments the runoff ratio increases between these periods. This increase depends on vegetation playing a role: through physiological responses to enhanced carbon dioxide concentrations and also regionally through decreased fractional plant coverage. With increasing temperature, global mean annual precipitation is shown to increase in many regions, including some which are densely populated (e.g. the Yangtze catchment). This increase leads to a slight alleviation in the numbers of people residing in highly water-stressed environments (relative to lower-end temperature projections), providing associated changes to the timings of runoff allow the water resource to be usable to the same extent. This research predominantly focuses on climate changes scaled to an increase of 2 °C by 2050. It suggests that variability in the magnitude of runoff outputs among GCM forcings for this degree of warming requires further constraint in order to better inform regional water resources policy.

  17. Estimation of Croplands in West Africa using Global Land Cover and Land Use Datasets: Preliminary Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adhikari, P.; de Beurs, K.

    2013-12-01

    Africa is vulnerable to the effects of global climate change resulting in reduced agricultural production and worsening food security. Studies show that Africa has the lowest cereal yield compared to other regions of the world. The situation is particularly dire in East, Central and West Africa. Despite their low cereal yield, the population of East, Central and West Africa has doubled between 1980 and 2007. Furthermore, West Africa has a history of severe and long droughts which have occasionally caused widespread famine. To understand how global climate change and land cover change have impacted crop production (yield) it is important to estimate croplands in the region. The objective of this study is to compare ten publicly available land cover and land use datasets, covering different time periods, to estimate croplands in West Africa. The land cover and land use data sets used cover the period from early 1990s to 2010. Preliminary results show a high variability in cropland estimates. For example, in Benin, the estimated cropland area varies from 2.5 to 21% of the total area, while it varies from 3 to 8% in Niger. Datasets with a finer resolution (≤ 1,000 m) have consistently estimated comparable cropland areas across all countries. Several categorical verification statistics such as probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR) and critical success index are also used to analyze the correspondence between estimated and observed cropland pixels at the scales of 1 Km and 10 Km.

  18. Regularized estimation of vertical total electron content from Global Positioning System data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arikan, F.; Erol, C. B.; Arikan, O.

    2003-12-01

    A novel regularization technique which can combine signals from all Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites for a given instant and a given receiver is developed to estimate the vertical total electron content (VTEC) values for the 24-hour period without missing any important features in the temporal domain. The algorithm is based on the minimization of a cost function which also includes a high pass penalty filter. Optional weighting function and sliding window median filter are added to enrich the processing and smoothing of the data. The developed regularized estimation algorithm is applied to GPS data for various locations for the solar maximum week of 23-28 April 2001. The parameter set that is required by the estimation algorithm is chosen optimally using appropriate error functions. This robust and optimum parameter set can be used for all latitudes and for both quiet and disturbed days. It is observed that the estimated TEC values are in general accordance with the TEC estimates from other global ionospheric maps, especially for quiet days and midlatitudes. Owing to its 30 s time resolution, the regularized VTEC estimates from the developed algorithm are very successful in representation and tracking of sudden temporal variations of the ionosphere, especially for high latitudes and during ionospheric disturbances.

  19. Improving the estimation of terrestrial gross primary productivity by downscaling global sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cescatti, A.; Duveiller, G.

    2015-12-01

    The synoptic nature of satellite remote sensing makes this technique a key tool to contribute to estimating the amount of Carbon fixed by vegetation at global scale. From the various types of information that can be derived from space, the recent capacity to create global datasets of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) may prove to be a game-changer. SIF is a signal emitted by the photosynthetic machinery itself that, under the illumination conditions in which it can be estimated by satellite, has been shown to be proportional to gross primary productivity (GPP). However, this relationship is dependent on vegetation types that are typically spatially mixed at the coarse spatial resolution of SIF datasets (at best 0.5°), which in turn is a consequence of the complexity of the SIF retrieval itself. This study demonstrates how 0.5° SIF derived from GOME-2 data can be downscaled to a more adequate spatial resolution of 0.05° by combining 3 explanatory biophysical variables derived from the MODIS sensor (NDVI, land surface temperature and evapotranspiration) under a semi-empirical light-use efficiency framework. The finer spatial resolution results in a cleaner signal when aggregating it per land cover type. The signal is also better correlated in time with GPP estimated from flux towers, reaching the same level of performance than global GPP products calibrated on such flux towers and driven by meteorological and remote sensing variables (other than SIF). Establishing linear relationships between SIF and flux-tower GPP at vegetation type level allows to estimate values of global terrestrial vegetation gross productivity that have different magnitude but similar temporal patterns as other GPP products. Based on downscaled SIF, the mean global GPP values over the period 2007 to 2013 are (for deciduous broadleaf and mixed forests) 13.7, (for evergreen needleleaf forests) 2.5, (for grasslands) 12.5 and (savannahs and woody savannas) 36.8 Pg of Carbon per year.

  20. Has Natural Variability Masked the Expected Increase in Antarctic Surface Mass Balance with Global Warming?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Previdi, Michael; Polvani, Lorenzo M.

    2016-04-01

    One of the expected and rather paradoxical consequences of anthropogenic global warming is an increase in Antarctic surface mass balance (or net snow accumulation), as robustly simulated by both global and regional climate models. This surface mass balance (SMB) increase occurs because the higher moisture content of a warmer atmosphere leads to increases in precipitation, with this precipitation falling in the form of snow over Antarctica. Despite these robust model projections, however, observations indicate that there has been no significant change in Antarctic SMB during the past several decades. Here, we show that this apparent discrepancy between models and observations can be explained by the fact that the anthropogenic climate change signal is still relatively small compared to the noise associated with natural climate variability. Using an ensemble of 35 global coupled climate models to separate signal and noise, we find that the forced SMB increase due to global warming in recent decades is unlikely to be detectable in a statistical sense as a result of large natural SMB variability on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales. However, our analysis reveals that if the world continues to follow the present trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions, the anthropogenic impact on Antarctic SMB will emerge from natural variability by the middle of the current century. With this, SMB increases over Antarctica will begin to mitigate global sea-level rise, partially offsetting the effects of dynamic ice loss.

  1. Has Natural Variability Masked the Expected Increase in Antarctic Surface Mass Balance with Global Warming?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Previdi, M. J.; Polvani, L. M.

    2015-12-01

    One of the expected and rather paradoxical consequences of anthropogenic global warming is an increase in Antarctic surface mass balance (or net snow accumulation), as robustly simulated by both global and regional climate models. This surface mass balance (SMB) increase occurs because the higher moisture content of a warmer atmosphere leads to increases in precipitation, with this precipitation falling in the form of snow over Antarctica. Despite these robust model projections, however, observations indicate that there has been no significant change in Antarctic SMB during the past several decades. Here, we show that this apparent discrepancy between models and observations can be explained by the fact that the anthropogenic climate change signal is still relatively small compared to the noise associated with natural climate variability. Using an ensemble of 35 global coupled climate models to separate signal and noise, we find that the forced SMB increase due to global warming in recent decades is unlikely to be detectable in a statistical sense as a result of large natural SMB variability on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales. However, our analysis reveals that if the world continues to follow the present trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions, the anthropogenic impact on Antarctic SMB will emerge from natural variability by the middle of the current century. With this, SMB increases over Antarctica will begin to mitigate global sea-level rise, partially offsetting the effects of dynamic ice loss.

  2. Improved estimates of global ocean circulation, heat transport and mixing from hydrographic data.

    PubMed

    Ganachaud, A; Wunsch, C

    2000-11-23

    Through its ability to transport large amounts of heat, fresh water and nutrients, the ocean is an essential regulator of climate. The pathways and mechanisms of this transport and its stability are critical issues in understanding the present state of climate and the possibilities of future changes. Recently, global high-quality hydrographic data have been gathered in the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE), to obtain an accurate picture of the present circulation. Here we combine the new data from high-resolution trans-oceanic sections and current meters with climatological wind fields, biogeochemical balances and improved a priori error estimates in an inverse model, to improve estimates of the global circulation and heat fluxes. Our solution resolves globally vertical mixing across surfaces of equal density, with coefficients in the range (3-12) x 10(-4) m2 s(-1). Net deep-water production rates amount to (15 +/- 12) x 10(6) m3 s(-1) in the North Atlantic Ocean and (21 +/- 6) x 10(6) m3 s(-1) in the Southern Ocean. Our estimates provide a new reference state for future climate studies with rigorous estimates of the uncertainties.

  3. Toward a Quantitative Estimate of Future Heat Wave Mortality under Global Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Peng, Roger D.; Bobb, Jennifer F.; Tebaldi, Claudia; McDaniel, Larry; Bell, Michelle L.; Dominici, Francesca

    2011-01-01

    Background Climate change is anticipated to affect human health by changing the distribution of known risk factors. Heat waves have had debilitating effects on human mortality, and global climate models predict an increase in the frequency and severity of heat waves. The extent to which climate change will harm human health through changes in the distribution of heat waves and the sources of uncertainty in estimating these effects have not been studied extensively. Objectives We estimated the future excess mortality attributable to heat waves under global climate change for a major U.S. city. Methods We used a database comprising daily data from 1987 through 2005 on mortality from all nonaccidental causes, ambient levels of particulate matter and ozone, temperature, and dew point temperature for the city of Chicago, Illinois. We estimated the associations between heat waves and mortality in Chicago using Poisson regression models. Results Under three different climate change scenarios for 2081–2100 and in the absence of adaptation, the city of Chicago could experience between 166 and 2,217 excess deaths per year attributable to heat waves, based on estimates from seven global climate models. We noted considerable variability in the projections of annual heat wave mortality; the largest source of variation was the choice of climate model. Conclusions The impact of future heat waves on human health will likely be profound, and significant gains can be expected by lowering future carbon dioxide emissions. PMID:21193384

  4. Probabilistic Estimates of Global Mean Sea Level and its Underlying Processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hay, C.; Morrow, E.; Kopp, R. E.; Mitrovica, J. X.

    2015-12-01

    Local sea level can vary significantly from the global mean value due to a suite of processes that includes ongoing sea-level changes due to the last ice age, land water storage, ocean circulation changes, and non-uniform sea-level changes that arise when modern-day land ice rapidly melts. Understanding these sources of spatial and temporal variability is critical to estimating past and present sea-level change and projecting future sea-level rise. Using two probabilistic techniques, a multi-model Kalman smoother and Gaussian process regression, we have reanalyzed 20th century tide gauge observations to produce a new estimate of global mean sea level (GMSL). Our methods allow us to extract global information from the sparse tide gauge field by taking advantage of the physics-based and model-derived geometry of the contributing processes. Both methods provide constraints on the sea-level contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). The Kalman smoother tests multiple discrete models of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), probabilistically computing the most likely GIA model given the observations, while the Gaussian process regression characterizes the prior covariance structure of a suite of GIA models and then uses this structure to estimate the posterior distribution of local rates of GIA-induced sea-level change. We present the two methodologies, the model-derived geometries of the underlying processes, and our new probabilistic estimates of GMSL and GIA.

  5. Sensitivity of contemporary sea level trends in a global ocean state estimate to effects of geothermal fluxes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piecuch, Christopher G.; Heimbach, Patrick; Ponte, Rui M.; Forget, Gaël

    2015-12-01

    Geothermal fluxes constitute a sizable fraction of the present-day Earth net radiative imbalance and corresponding ocean heat uptake. Model simulations of contemporary sea level that impose a geothermal flux boundary condition are becoming increasingly common. To quantify the impact of geothermal fluxes on model estimates of contemporary (1993-2010) sea level changes, two ocean circulation model experiments are compared. The two simulations are based on a global ocean state estimate, produced by the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) consortium, and differ only with regard to whether geothermal forcing is applied as a boundary condition. Geothermal forcing raises the global-mean sea level trend by 0.11 mm yr-1 in the perturbation experiment by suppressing a cooling trend present in the baseline solution below 2000 m. The imposed forcing also affects regional sea level trends. The Southern Ocean is particularly sensitive. In this region, anomalous heat redistribution due to geothermal fluxes results in steric height trends of up to ± 1 mm yr-1 in the perturbation experiment relative to the baseline simulation. Analysis of a passive tracer experiment suggests that the geothermal input itself is transported by horizontal diffusion, resulting in more thermal expansion over deeper ocean basins. Thermal expansion in the perturbation simulation gives rise to bottom pressure increase over shallower regions and decrease over deeper areas relative to the baseline run, consistent with mass redistribution expected for deep ocean warming. These results elucidate the influence of geothermal fluxes on sea level rise and global heat budgets in model simulations of contemporary ocean circulation and climate.

  6. First estimates of the global and regional incidence of neonatal herpes infection.

    PubMed

    Looker, Katharine J; Magaret, Amalia S; May, Margaret T; Turner, Katherine M E; Vickerman, Peter; Newman, Lori M; Gottlieb, Sami L

    2017-03-01

    Neonatal herpes is a rare but potentially devastating condition with an estimated 60% fatality rate without treatment. Transmission usually occurs during delivery from mothers with herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) or type 2 (HSV-2) genital infection. However, the global burden has never been quantified to our knowledge. We developed a novel methodology for burden estimation and present first WHO global and regional estimates of the annual number of neonatal herpes cases during 2010-15. We applied previous estimates of HSV-1 and HSV-2 prevalence and incidence in women aged 15-49 years to 2010-15 birth rates to estimate infections during pregnancy. We then applied published risks of neonatal HSV transmission according to whether maternal infection was incident or prevalent with HSV-1 or HSV-2 to generate annual numbers of incident neonatal infections. We estimated the number of incident neonatal infections by maternal age, and we generated separate estimates for each WHO region, which were then summed to obtain global estimates of the number of neonatal herpes infections. Globally the overall rate of neonatal herpes was estimated to be about ten cases per 100 000 livebirths, equivalent to a best-estimate of 14 000 cases annually roughly (4000 for HSV-1; 10 000 for HSV-2). We estimated that the most neonatal herpes cases occurred in Africa, due to high maternal HSV-2 infection and high birth rates. HSV-1 contributed more cases than HSV-2 in the Americas, Europe, and Western Pacific. High rates of genital HSV-1 infection and moderate HSV-2 prevalence meant the Americas had the highest overall rate. However, our estimates are highly sensitive to the core assumptions, and considerable uncertainty exists for many settings given sparse underlying data. These neonatal herpes estimates mark the first attempt to quantify the global burden of this rare but serious condition. Better collection of primary data for neonatal herpes is crucially needed to reduce

  7. Estimating a Global Hydrological Carrying Capacity Using GRACE Observed Water Stress

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    An, K.; Reager, J. T.; Famiglietti, J. S.

    2013-12-01

    Global population is expected to reach 9 billion people by the year 2050, causing increased demands for water and potential threats to human security. This study attempts to frame the overpopulation problem through a hydrological resources lens by hypothesizing that observed groundwater trends should be directly attributed to human water consumption. This study analyzes the relationships between available blue water, population, and cropland area on a global scale. Using satellite data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) along with land surface model data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), a global groundwater depletion trend is isolated, the validity of which has been verified in many regional studies. By using the inherent distributions of these relationships, we estimate the regional populations that have exceeded their local hydrological carrying capacity. Globally, these populations sum to ~3.5 billion people that are living in presently water-stressed or potentially water-scarce regions, and we estimate total cropland is exceeding a sustainable threshold by about 80 million km^2. Key study areas such as the North China Plain, northwest India, and Mexico City were qualitatively chosen for further analysis of regional water resources and policies, based on our distributions of water stress. These case studies are used to verify the groundwater level changes seen in the GRACE trend . Tfor the many populous, arid regions of the world that have already begun to experience the strains of high water demand.he many populous, arid regions of the world have already begun to experience the strains of high water demand. It will take a global cooperative effort of improving domestic and agricultural use efficiency, and summoning a political will to prioritize environmental issues to adapt to a thirstier planet. Global Groundwater Depletion Trend (Mar 2003-Dec 2011)

  8. Global lightning NOx production estimated by an assimilation of multiple satellite datasets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miyazaki, K.; Eskes, H. J.; Sudo, K.; Zhang, C.

    2013-11-01

    The global source of lightning-produced NOx (LNOx) is estimated by assimilating observations of NO2, O3, HNO3, and CO measured by multiple satellite measurements. Included are observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instruments. The assimilation of multiple chemical datasets with different vertical sensitivity profiles provides comprehensive constraints on the global LNOx source while improving the representations of the entire chemical system affecting atmospheric NOx, including surface emissions and inflows from the stratosphere. The annual global LNOx source amount and NO production efficiency are estimated at 6.3 Tg N yr-1 and 350 mol NO flash-1, respectively. Sensitivity studies with perturbed satellite datasets, model and data assimilation settings leads to an error estimate of about 1.4 Tg N yr-1 on this global LNOx source. These estimates are significantly different from those derived from NO2 observations alone, which may lead to an overestimate of the source adjustment. The total LNOx source is predominantly corrected by the assimilation of OMI NO2 observations, while TES and MLS observations add important constraints on the vertical source profile. The results indicate that the widely used lightning parameterization based on the C-shape assumption underestimates the source in the upper troposphere and overestimates the peak source height by up to about 1 km over land and the tropical western Pacific. Adjustments are larger over ocean than over land, suggesting that the cloud height dependence is too weak over the ocean in the Price and Rind (1992) approach. The significantly improved agreement between the analysed ozone fields and independent observations gives confidence in the performance of the LNOx source estimation.

  9. Contributions of national and global health estimates to monitoring health-related sustainable development goals

    PubMed Central

    Bundhamcharoen, Kanitta; Limwattananon, Supon; Kusreesakul, Khanitta; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj

    2016-01-01

    The millennium development goals triggered an increased demand for data on child and maternal mortalities for monitoring progress. With the advent of the sustainable development goals and growing evidence of an epidemiological transition toward non-communicable diseases, policymakers need data on mortality and disease trends and distribution to inform effective policies and support monitoring progress. Where there are limited capacities to produce national health estimates (NHEs), global health estimates (GHEs) can fill gaps for global monitoring and comparisons. This paper discusses lessons learned from Thailand’s burden of disease (BOD) study on capacity development on NHEs and discusses the contributions and limitations of GHEs in informing policies at the country level. Through training and technical support by external partners, capacities are gradually strengthened and institutionalized to enable regular updates of BOD at national and subnational levels. Ini