Science.gov

Sample records for global mass estimates

  1. Total Land Water Storage Change over 2003 - 2013 Estimated from a Global Mass Budget Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dieng, H. B.; Champollion, N.; Cazenave, A.; Wada, Y.; Schrama, E.; Meyssignac, B.

    2015-01-01

    We estimate the total land water storage (LWS) change between 2003 and 2013 using a global water mass budget approach. Hereby we compare the ocean mass change (estimated from GRACE space gravimetry on the one hand, and from the satellite altimetry-based global mean sea level corrected for steric effects on the other hand) to the sum of the main water mass components of the climate system: glaciers, Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets, atmospheric water and LWS (the latter being the unknown quantity to be estimated). For glaciers and ice sheets, we use published estimates of ice mass trends based on various types of observations covering different time spans between 2003 and 2013. From the mass budget equation, we derive a net LWS trend over the study period. The mean trend amounts to +0.30 +/- 0.18 mm/yr in sea level equivalent. This corresponds to a net decrease of -108 +/- 64 cu km/yr in LWS over the 2003-2013 decade. We also estimate the rate of change in LWS and find no significant acceleration over the study period. The computed mean global LWS trend over the study period is shown to be explained mainly by direct anthropogenic effects on land hydrology, i.e. the net effect of groundwater depletion and impoundment of water in man-made reservoirs, and to a lesser extent the effect of naturally-forced land hydrology variability. Our results compare well with independent estimates of human-induced changes in global land hydrology.

  2. Incorrect interpretation of carbon mass balance biases global vegetation fire emission estimates

    PubMed Central

    Surawski, N. C.; Sullivan, A. L.; Roxburgh, S. H.; Meyer, C.P. Mick; Polglase, P. J.

    2016-01-01

    Vegetation fires are a complex phenomenon in the Earth system with many global impacts, including influences on global climate. Estimating carbon emissions from vegetation fires relies on a carbon mass balance technique that has evolved with two different interpretations. Databases of global vegetation fire emissions use an approach based on ‘consumed biomass', which is an approximation to the biogeochemically correct ‘burnt carbon' approach. Here we show that applying the ‘consumed biomass' approach to global emissions from vegetation fires leads to annual overestimates of carbon emitted to the atmosphere by 4.0% or 100 Tg compared with the ‘burnt carbon' approach. The required correction is significant and represents ∼9% of the net global forest carbon sink estimated annually. Vegetation fire emission studies should use the ‘burnt carbon' approach to quantify and understand the role of this burnt carbon, which is not emitted to the atmosphere, as a sink enriched in carbon. PMID:27146785

  3. Improving Global Surface Mass Variation Estimates With Multi-Satellite Data Combination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, X.; Blom, R. G.; Dong, D.; Ivins, E. R.; Owen, S. E.; Oyafuso, F. A.

    2006-05-01

    The GRACE gravity mission is an important milestone toward global high resolution and accurate monitoring of surface mass variations. The spherical harmonic spectra of the variations, however, are not complete without the degree-1 (or equivalently geocenter motion) terms. Also, SLR geocenter motion solutions severely under- sample the center-of-figure of the solid Earth surface due to its small tracking network. To validate and complement gravity data, we compare and combine them with GPS crustal deformation measurements and a TOPEX/JASON data-assimilated ocean bottom pressure (OBP) model to solve for surface mass variations up to degree and order 50, with reduced aid of a priori information. The solutions include geocenter motion estimates with < 0.5 mm annual precision. To further reduce a priori model dependency and improve surface mass variation accuracy, the supplemented GRACE data (plus degree-1 terms) are combined with OBP and GPS data without a priori model. The resulting average oceanic and Antarctic mass variation estimates show nearly a factor of 2 improvements over those derived from the supplemented GRACE solution alone.

  4. Global Mass Flux Solutions from GRACE: A Comparison of Parameter Estimation Strategies - Mass Concentrations Versus Stokes Coefficients

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rowlands, D. D.; Luthcke, S. B.; McCarthy J. J.; Klosko, S. M.; Chinn, D. S.; Lemoine, F. G.; Boy, J.-P.; Sabaka, T. J.

    2010-01-01

    The differences between mass concentration (mas con) parameters and standard Stokes coefficient parameters in the recovery of gravity infonnation from gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) intersatellite K-band range rate data are investigated. First, mascons are decomposed into their Stokes coefficient representations to gauge the range of solutions available using each of the two types of parameters. Next, a direct comparison is made between two time series of unconstrained gravity solutions, one based on a set of global equal area mascon parameters (equivalent to 4deg x 4deg at the equator), and the other based on standard Stokes coefficients with each time series using the same fundamental processing of the GRACE tracking data. It is shown that in unconstrained solutions, the type of gravity parameter being estimated does not qualitatively affect the estimated gravity field. It is also shown that many of the differences in mass flux derivations from GRACE gravity solutions arise from the type of smoothing being used and that the type of smoothing that can be embedded in mas con solutions has distinct advantages over postsolution smoothing. Finally, a 1 year time series based on global 2deg equal area mascons estimated every 10 days is presented.

  5. Oceanic Fluxes of Mass, Heat and Freshwater: A Global Estimate and Perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    MacDonald, Alison Marguerite

    1995-01-01

    Data from fifteen globally distributed, modern, high resolution, hydrographic oceanic transects are combined in an inverse calculation using large scale box models. The models provide estimates of the global meridional heat and freshwater budgets and are used to examine the sensitivity of the global circulation, both inter and intra-basin exchange rates, to a variety of external constraints provided by estimates of Ekman, boundary current and throughflow transports. A solution is found which is consistent with both the model physics and the global data set, despite a twenty five year time span and a lack of seasonal consistency among the data. The overall pattern of the global circulation suggested by the models is similar to that proposed in previously published local studies and regional reviews. However, significant qualitative and quantitative differences exist. These differences are due both to the model definition and to the global nature of the data set.

  6. Observation-Based Estimates of Global Glacier Mass Change and Its Contribution to Sea-Level Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marzeion, B.; Champollion, N.; Haeberli, W.; Langley, K.; Leclercq, P.; Paul, F.

    2017-01-01

    Glaciers have strongly contributed to sea-level rise during the past century and will continue to be an important part of the sea-level budget during the twenty-first century. Here, we review the progress in estimating global glacier mass change from in situ measurements of mass and length changes, remote sensing methods, and mass balance modeling driven by climate observations. For the period before the onset of satellite observations, different strategies to overcome the uncertainty associated with monitoring only a small sample of the world's glaciers have been developed. These methods now yield estimates generally reconcilable with each other within their respective uncertainty margins. Whereas this is also the case for the recent decades, the greatly increased number of estimates obtained from remote sensing reveals that gravimetry-based methods typically arrive at lower mass loss estimates than the other methods. We suggest that strategies for better interconnecting the different methods are needed to ensure progress and to increase the temporal and spatial detail of reliable glacier mass change estimates.

  7. Observation-Based Estimates of Global Glacier Mass Change and Its Contribution to Sea-Level Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marzeion, B.; Champollion, N.; Haeberli, W.; Langley, K.; Leclercq, P.; Paul, F.

    2016-11-01

    Glaciers have strongly contributed to sea-level rise during the past century and will continue to be an important part of the sea-level budget during the twenty-first century. Here, we review the progress in estimating global glacier mass change from in situ measurements of mass and length changes, remote sensing methods, and mass balance modeling driven by climate observations. For the period before the onset of satellite observations, different strategies to overcome the uncertainty associated with monitoring only a small sample of the world's glaciers have been developed. These methods now yield estimates generally reconcilable with each other within their respective uncertainty margins. Whereas this is also the case for the recent decades, the greatly increased number of estimates obtained from remote sensing reveals that gravimetry-based methods typically arrive at lower mass loss estimates than the other methods. We suggest that strategies for better interconnecting the different methods are needed to ensure progress and to increase the temporal and spatial detail of reliable glacier mass change estimates.

  8. Observation-Based Estimates of Global Glacier Mass Change and Its Contribution to Sea-Level Change.

    PubMed

    Marzeion, B; Champollion, N; Haeberli, W; Langley, K; Leclercq, P; Paul, F

    2017-01-01

    Glaciers have strongly contributed to sea-level rise during the past century and will continue to be an important part of the sea-level budget during the twenty-first century. Here, we review the progress in estimating global glacier mass change from in situ measurements of mass and length changes, remote sensing methods, and mass balance modeling driven by climate observations. For the period before the onset of satellite observations, different strategies to overcome the uncertainty associated with monitoring only a small sample of the world's glaciers have been developed. These methods now yield estimates generally reconcilable with each other within their respective uncertainty margins. Whereas this is also the case for the recent decades, the greatly increased number of estimates obtained from remote sensing reveals that gravimetry-based methods typically arrive at lower mass loss estimates than the other methods. We suggest that strategies for better interconnecting the different methods are needed to ensure progress and to increase the temporal and spatial detail of reliable glacier mass change estimates.

  9. Satellite-based global-ocean mass balance estimates of interannual variability and emerging trends in continental freshwater discharge

    PubMed Central

    Syed, Tajdarul H.; Famiglietti, James S.; Chambers, Don P.; Willis, Josh K.; Hilburn, Kyle

    2010-01-01

    Freshwater discharge from the continents is a key component of Earth’s water cycle that sustains human life and ecosystem health. Surprisingly, owing to a number of socioeconomic and political obstacles, a comprehensive global river discharge observing system does not yet exist. Here we use 13 years (1994–2006) of satellite precipitation, evaporation, and sea level data in an ocean mass balance to estimate freshwater discharge into the global ocean. Results indicate that global freshwater discharge averaged 36,055 km3/y for the study period while exhibiting significant interannual variability driven primarily by El Niño Southern Oscillation cycles. The method described here can ultimately be used to estimate long-term global discharge trends as the records of sea level rise and ocean temperature lengthen. For the relatively short 13-year period studied here, global discharge increased by 540 km3/y2, which was largely attributed to an increase of global-ocean evaporation (768 km3/y2). Sustained growth of these flux rates into long-term trends would provide evidence for increasing intensity of the hydrologic cycle. PMID:20921364

  10. Satellite-based global-ocean mass balance estimates of interannual variability and emerging trends in continental freshwater discharge.

    PubMed

    Syed, Tajdarul H; Famiglietti, James S; Chambers, Don P; Willis, Josh K; Hilburn, Kyle

    2010-10-19

    Freshwater discharge from the continents is a key component of Earth's water cycle that sustains human life and ecosystem health. Surprisingly, owing to a number of socioeconomic and political obstacles, a comprehensive global river discharge observing system does not yet exist. Here we use 13 years (1994-2006) of satellite precipitation, evaporation, and sea level data in an ocean mass balance to estimate freshwater discharge into the global ocean. Results indicate that global freshwater discharge averaged 36,055 km(3)/y for the study period while exhibiting significant interannual variability driven primarily by El Niño Southern Oscillation cycles. The method described here can ultimately be used to estimate long-term global discharge trends as the records of sea level rise and ocean temperature lengthen. For the relatively short 13-year period studied here, global discharge increased by 540 km(3)/y(2), which was largely attributed to an increase of global-ocean evaporation (768 km(3)/y(2)). Sustained growth of these flux rates into long-term trends would provide evidence for increasing intensity of the hydrologic cycle.

  11. Exploiting simultaneous observational constraints on mass and absorption to estimate the global direct radiative forcing of black carbon and brown carbon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, X.; Heald, C. L.; Ridley, D. A.; Schwarz, J. P.; Spackman, J. R.; Perring, A. E.; Coe, H.; Liu, D.; Clarke, A. D.

    2014-06-01

    Atmospheric black carbon (BC) is a leading climate warming agent, yet uncertainties on the global direct radiative forcing (DRF) remain large. Here we expand a global model simulation (GEOS-Chem) of BC to include the absorption enhancement associated with BC coating and separately treat both the aging and physical properties of fossil fuel and biomass burning BC. In addition we develop a global simulation of Brown Carbon (BrC) from both secondary (aromatic) and primary (biomass burning and biofuel) sources. The global mean lifetime of BC in this simulation (4.4 days) is substantially lower compared to the AeroCom I model means (7.3 days), and as a result, this model captures both the mass concentrations measured in near-source airborne field campaigns (ARCTAS, EUCAARI) and surface sites within 30%, and in remote regions (HIPPO) within a factor of two. We show that the new BC optical properties together with the inclusion of BrC reduces the model bias in Absorption Aerosol Optical Depth (AAOD) at multiple wavelengths by more than 50% at AERONET sites worldwide. However our improved model still underestimates AAOD by a factor of 1.4 to 2.8 regionally, with largest underestimates in regions influenced by fire. Using the RRTMG model integrated with GEOS-Chem we estimate that the all-sky top-of-atmosphere DRF of BC is +0.13 W m-2 (0.08 W m-2 from anthropogenic sources and 0.05 W m-2 from biomass burning). If we scale our model to match AERONET AAOD observations we estimate the DRF of BC is +0.21 W m-2, with an additional +0.11 W m-2 of warming from BrC. Uncertainties in size, optical properties, observations, and emissions suggest an overall uncertainty in BC DRF of -80% / +140%. Our estimates are at the lower end of the 0.2-1.0 W m-2 range from previous studies, and substantially less than the +0.6 W m-2 DRF estimated in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report. We suggest that the DRF of BC has previously been overestimated due to the overestimation of the BC lifetime and the

  12. Exploiting simultaneous observational constraints on mass and absorption to estimate the global direct radiative forcing of black carbon and brown carbon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, X.; Heald, C. L.; Ridley, D. A.; Schwarz, J. P.; Spackman, J. R.; Perring, A. E.; Coe, H.; Liu, D.; Clarke, A. D.

    2014-10-01

    Atmospheric black carbon (BC) is a leading climate warming agent, yet uncertainties on the global direct radiative forcing (DRF) remain large. Here we expand a global model simulation (GEOS-Chem) of BC to include the absorption enhancement associated with BC coating and separately treat both the aging and physical properties of fossil-fuel and biomass-burning BC. In addition we develop a global simulation of brown carbon (BrC) from both secondary (aromatic) and primary (biomass burning and biofuel) sources. The global mean lifetime of BC in this simulation (4.4 days) is substantially lower compared to the AeroCom I model means (7.3 days), and as a result, this model captures both the mass concentrations measured in near-source airborne field campaigns (ARCTAS, EUCAARI) and surface sites within 30%, and in remote regions (HIPPO) within a factor of 2. We show that the new BC optical properties together with the inclusion of BrC reduces the model bias in absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) at multiple wavelengths by more than 50% at AERONET sites worldwide. However our improved model still underestimates AAOD by a factor of 1.4 to 2.8 regionally, with the largest underestimates in regions influenced by fire. Using the RRTMG model integrated with GEOS-Chem we estimate that the all-sky top-of-atmosphere DRF of BC is +0.13 Wm-2 (0.08 Wm-2 from anthropogenic sources and 0.05 Wm-2 from biomass burning). If we scale our model to match AERONET AAOD observations we estimate the DRF of BC is +0.21 Wm-2, with an additional +0.11 Wm-2 of warming from BrC. Uncertainties in size, optical properties, observations, and emissions suggest an overall uncertainty in BC DRF of -80%/+140%. Our estimates are at the lower end of the 0.2-1.0 Wm-2 range from previous studies, and substantially less than the +0.6 Wm-2 DRF estimated in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report. We suggest that the DRF of BC has previously been overestimated due to the overestimation of the BC lifetime (including the

  13. Global Warming Estimation from MSU

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, Robert, Jr.

    1999-01-01

    In this study, we have developed time series of global temperature from 1980-97 based on the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) Ch 2 (53.74 GHz) observations taken from polar-orbiting NOAA operational satellites. In order to create these time series, systematic errors (approx. 0.1 K) in the Ch 2 data arising from inter-satellite differences are removed objectively. On the other hand, smaller systematic errors (approx. 0.03 K) in the data due to orbital drift of each satellite cannot be removed objectively. Such errors are expected to remain in the time series and leave an uncertainty in the inferred global temperature trend. With the help of a statistical method, the error in the MSU inferred global temperature trend resulting from orbital drifts and residual inter-satellite differences of all satellites is estimated to be 0.06 K decade. Incorporating this error, our analysis shows that the global temperature increased at a rate of 0.13 +/- 0.06 K decade during 1980-97.

  14. APPROACH FOR ESTIMATING GLOBAL LANDFILL METHANE EMISSIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report is an overview of available country-specific data and modeling approaches for estimating global landfill methane. Current estimates of global landfill methane indicate that landfills account for between 4 and 15% of the global methane budget. The report describes an ap...

  15. Detecting the Sea-Level Fingerprint of Polar Ice Mass Changes: Testing a New Method for Estimating the Sources of Global Sea Level Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hay, C.; Morrow, E.; Kopp, R. E.; Mitrovica, J. X.

    2011-12-01

    Twentieth and 21st century rates of globally averaged sea level (SL) change have commonly been estimated using subsets of tide gauge records and satellite altimetry data. However, these estimates ignore the information embedded in the geographic variability of the measurements. It is now well known, for example, that the rapid melting of an individual ice sheet or glacier will produce a unique geometry, or fingerprint, of SL change. In principle, a suite of such fingerprints, together with a network of modern SL observations with sufficient geographic distribution and signal-to-noise properties, may be used to infer recent sources of meltwater flux. We outline a new formalism based on a Kalman filter for estimating the individual SL contributions to global SL change using tide gauge and satellite altimetry measurements. The Kalman filter is well-suited to such an estimate because: 1) it naturally accommodates missing data, a significant factor for sparse sections of the tide gauge record; 2) it is able to optimally estimate non-stationary trends and the associated uncertainty; and 3) its recursive nature reduces the potentially onerous computational memory requirements caused by large volumes of tide gauge or satellite altimetry data. We first explore the feasibility of extracting source information from SL records by applying the new methodology in a series of detection experiments with synthetic tide gauge and altimetry data sets. Our synthetic data sets are constructed by combining de-trended tide gauge or satellite altimetry records with sea-level fingerprints computed for a variety of Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) and West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) melt scenarios. Additional contributions to SL change, such as the signal due to on-going glacial isostatic adjustment in response to the last ice age and dynamic sea level changes due to thermal expansion of the ocean are also included in the synthetics. We apply our modified Kalman filter to various subsets of

  16. Global Warming Estimation from MSU

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, Robert; Yoo, Jung-Moon

    1998-01-01

    Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer observations in Ch 2 (53.74 GHz) from sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA satellites contain small systematic errors. Some of these errors are time-dependent and some are time-independent. Small errors in Ch 2 data of successive satellites arise from calibration differences. Also, successive NOAA satellites tend to have different Local Equatorial Crossing Times (LECT), which introduce differences in Ch 2 data due to the diurnal cycle. These two sources of systematic error are largely time independent. However, because of atmospheric drag, there can be a drift in the LECT of a given satellite, which introduces time-dependent systematic errors. One of these errors is due to the progressive chance in the diurnal cycle and the other is due to associated chances in instrument heating by the sun. In order to infer global temperature trend from the these MSU data, we have eliminated explicitly the time-independent systematic errors. Both of the time-dependent errors cannot be assessed from each satellite. For this reason, their cumulative effect on the global temperature trend is evaluated implicitly. Christy et al. (1998) (CSL). based on their method of analysis of the MSU Ch 2 data, infer a global temperature cooling trend (-0.046 K per decade) from 1979 to 1997, although their near nadir measurements yield near zero trend (0.003 K/decade). Utilising an independent method of analysis, we infer global temperature warmed by 0.12 +/- 0.06 C per decade from the observations of the MSU Ch 2 during the period 1980 to 1997.

  17. Second Generation of Mass Estimation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-09-01

    This is provided in the following. Mach Learn Fig. 2 Two examples of massL i (x,h= 1) and massR i (x,h= 1) due to si=7 and si=11 in the process to get...the tree growing process at a branch will only terminate to form an external node if the training data size at the branch is 1 (i.e., the size limit is...data reside (lines 6–7). This node building process is repeated for each branch (lines 9–12 in Algorithm 2) until a size limit or a depth limit is

  18. Mass Transport in Global Geophysical Fluids

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chao, B. F.

    1999-01-01

    Mass transports occurring in the atmosphere-hydrosphere-solid Earth-core system (the "global geophysical fluids") are important geophysical phenomena. They occur on all temporal and spatial scales. Examples include air mass and ocean circulations, tides, hydrological water redistribution, mantle processes such as post-glacial rebound, earthquakes and tectonic motions, and core geodynamo activities. With only a few exceptions on the Earth surface, the temporal history and spatial pattern of such mass transport are often not amenable to direct observations. Space geodesy techniques, however, have the capability of monitoring certain direct consequences of the mass transport, including Earth's rotation variations, gravitational field variations, and the geocenter motion. These techniques include the very-long-baseline interferometry, satellite laser ranging and Doppler tracking, and the Global Positioning System, all entail global observational networks. While considerable advances have been made in observing and understanding of the dynamics of Earth's rotation, only the lowest-degree gravitational variations have been observed and limited knowledge of geocenter motion obtained. New space missions, projects and initiatives promise to further improve the measurements and hence our knowledge about the global mass transports. The latter contributes to our understanding and modeling capability of the geophysical processes that produce and regulate the mass transports, as well as the solid Earth's response to such changes in constraining the modeling of Earth's mechanical properties.

  19. Global Response to Local Ionospheric Mass Ejection

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, T. E.; Fok, M.-C.; Delcourt, D. C.; Slinker, S. P.; Fedder, J. A.

    2010-01-01

    We revisit a reported "Ionospheric Mass Ejection" using prior event observations to guide a global simulation of local ionospheric outflows, global magnetospheric circulation, and plasma sheet pressurization, and comparing our results with the observed global response. Our simulation framework is based on test particle motions in the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) global circulation model electromagnetic fields. The inner magnetosphere is simulated with the Comprehensive Ring Current Model (CRCM) of Fok and Wolf, driven by the transpolar potential developed by the LFM magnetosphere, and includes an embedded plasmaspheric simulation. Global circulation is stimulated using the observed solar wind conditions for the period 24-25 Sept 1998. This period begins with the arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection, initially with northward, but later with southward interplanetary magnetic field. Test particles are launched from the ionosphere with fluxes specified by local empirical relationships of outflow to electrodynamic and particle precipitation imposed by the MIlD simulation. Particles are tracked until they are lost from the system downstream or into the atmosphere, using the full equations of motion. Results are compared with the observed ring current and a simulation of polar and auroral wind outflows driven globally by solar wind dynamic pressure. We find good quantitative agreement with the observed ring current, and reasonable qualitative agreement with earlier simulation results, suggesting that the solar wind driven global simulation generates realistic energy dissipation in the ionosphere and that the Strangeway relations provide a realistic local outflow description.

  20. Estimating Global Precipitation for Science and Application

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huffman, George J.

    2013-01-01

    Over the past two decades there has been vigorous development in the satellite assets and the algorithms necessary to estimate precipitation around the globe. In particular the highly successful joint NASAJAXA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, also joint between NASA and JAXA, have driven these issues. At the same time, the long-running Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) continues to extend a stable, climate-oriented view of global precipitation. This talk will provide an overview of these projects and the wider international community of precipitation datasets, sketch plans for next-generation products, and provide some examples of the best use for the different products. One key lesson learned is that different data sets are needed to address the variety of issues that need precipitation data, including detailed 3-D views of hurricanes, flash flood forecasting, drought analysis, and global change.

  1. Fluid flow through seamounts and implications for global mass fluxes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, Robert N.; Fisher, Andrew T.; Chapman, David S.

    2004-08-01

    Seamounts contribute to globally significant hydrothermal fluxes, but the dynamics and impacts of fluid flow through these features are poorly understood. Numerical models of coupled heat and fluid flow illustrate how seamounts induce local convection in the oceanic crust. We consider idealized axisymmetric seamounts and calculate mass and heat fluxes by using a coupled heat- and fluid-flow model. By using P. Wessel's global database of ˜15,000 seamounts identified through satellite gravimetry, we estimate that the mass flux associated with seamounts is ˜1014 kg/yr, a number comparable to estimated regional mass fluxes through mid-ocean ridges and flanks. In addition, the seamount-generated advective heat flux may be locally significant well beyond the 65 Ma average age at which advective lithospheric heat loss on ridge flanks ends. These flows may be important for facilitating geochemical exchange between the crust and ocean and may affect subseafloor microbial ecosystems.

  2. Estimating Ionosphere Conductance on Global Spatial Scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waters, C. L.; Anderson, B. J.; Green, D. L.; Korth, H.

    2014-12-01

    The ionosphere represents the Earthward boundary of space. For large scale processes, the height integrated conductivities (conductances) of the ionosphere are known to modulate the energy transfer between the magnetosphere and ionosphere. Estimating the Pedersen and Hall conductances on a global scale, particularly in the auroral regions, is fundamental to understanding the dynamics of the high latitude ionosphere and thermosphere. Experimental measurements with sufficient spatial coverage and with time scales of order of minutes or less are required. While the spatial coverage of HF radar and spacecraft measurements has recently improved, it turns out that the most challenging aspects for global estimates of ionosphere conductance are directly related to ground-based magnetometer data. The Iridium satellite constellation consists of more than 70 satellites in circular, polar, 780 km altitude orbits which provides a unique opportunity to obtain in-situ measurements of the global distribution of the Birkeland currents and associated magnetic field perturbations. In this paper, examples and challenges for combining the Iridium satellite, HF radar and ground magnetometer data in order to produce estimates of the Pedersen and Hall conductances on global spatial scales will be presented. We discuss limiting factors in the methodology and some possible alternatives.

  3. Volcanism, global catastrophe and mass mortality

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Francis, P. W.; Burke, K.

    1988-01-01

    The effects of very large volcanic eruptions are well documented in many studies, mostly based on observations made on three historic eruptions, Laki 1783; Tambora 1815 and Krakatau 1883. Such eruptions have effects that are catastrophic locally and measurable globally, but it is not clear that even the largest volcanic eruptions have had global catastrophic effects, nor caused mass extinctions. Two different types of volcanic eruption were considered as likely to have the most serious widespread effects: large silicic explosive eruptions producing hundreds or thousands of cubic kilometers of pyroclastic materials, and effusive basaltic eruptions producing of approximately 100 cubic kilometers of lava. In both cases, the global effects are climatic, and attributable to production of stratospheric aerosols. Other possibilities need to be explored. Recent research on global change has emphasized the extreme sensitivity of the links between oceanic circulation, atmospheric circulation and climate. In particular, it was argued that the pattern of ocean current circulation (which strongly influences climate) is unstable; it may rapidly flip from one pattern to a different one, with global climatic consequences. If volcanism has been a factor in global environmental change and a cause of mass extinctions, it seems most likely that it has done so by providing a trigger to other processes, for example by driving oceanic circulation from one mode to another.

  4. Improving lensing cluster mass estimate with flexion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cardone, V. F.; Vicinanza, M.; Er, X.; Maoli, R.; Scaramella, R.

    2016-11-01

    Gravitational lensing has long been considered as a valuable tool to determine the total mass of galaxy clusters. The shear profile, as inferred from the statistics of ellipticity of background galaxies, allows us to probe the cluster intermediate and outer regions, thus determining the virial mass estimate. However, the mass sheet degeneracy and the need for a large number of background galaxies motivate the search for alternative tracers which can break the degeneracy among model parameters and hence improve the accuracy of the mass estimate. Lensing flexion, i.e. the third derivative of the lensing potential, has been suggested as a good answer to the above quest since it probes the details of the mass profile. We investigate here whether this is indeed the case considering jointly using weak lensing, magnification and flexion. We use a Fisher matrix analysis to forecast the relative improvement in the mass accuracy for different assumptions on the shear and flexion signal-to- noise (S/N) ratio also varying the cluster mass, redshift, and ellipticity. It turns out that the error on the cluster mass may be reduced up to a factor of ˜2 for reasonable values of the flexion S/N ratio. As a general result, we get that the improvement in mass accuracy is larger for more flattened haloes, but it extracting general trends is difficult because of the many parameters at play. We nevertheless find that flexion is as efficient as magnification to increase the accuracy in both mass and concentration determination.

  5. Local versus global strategies in multiparameter estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knott, P. A.; Proctor, T. J.; Hayes, A. J.; Ralph, J. F.; Kok, P.; Dunningham, J. A.

    2016-12-01

    We consider the problem of estimating multiple phases using a multimode interferometer. In this setting we show that while global strategies that estimate all the phases simultaneously can lead to high precision gains, the same enhancements can be obtained with local strategies in which each phase is estimated individually. A key resource for the enhancement is shown to be a large particle-number variance in the probe state, and for states where the total particle number is not fixed, this can be obtained for mode-separable states, and the phases can be read out with local measurements. This has important practical implications because local strategies are generally preferred to global ones for their robustness to local estimation failure, flexibility in the distribution of resources, and comparatively easier state preparation. We obtain our results by analyzing two different schemes: the first uses a set of interferometers, which can be used as a model for a network of quantum sensors, and the second looks at measuring a number of phases relative to a reference, which is concerned primarily with quantum imaging.

  6. Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA): stellar mass estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, Edward N.; Hopkins, Andrew M.; Baldry, Ivan K.; Brown, Michael J. I.; Driver, Simon P.; Kelvin, Lee S.; Hill, David T.; Robotham, Aaron S. G.; Bland-Hawthorn, Joss; Jones, D. H.; Sharp, R. G.; Thomas, Daniel; Liske, Jochen; Loveday, Jon; Norberg, Peder; Peacock, J. A.; Bamford, Steven P.; Brough, Sarah; Colless, Matthew; Cameron, Ewan; Conselice, Christopher J.; Croom, Scott M.; Frenk, C. S.; Gunawardhana, Madusha; Kuijken, Konrad; Nichol, R. C.; Parkinson, H. R.; Phillipps, S.; Pimbblet, K. A.; Popescu, C. C.; Prescott, Matthew; Sutherland, W. J.; Tuffs, R. J.; van Kampen, Eelco; Wijesinghe, D.

    2011-12-01

    This paper describes the first catalogue of photometrically derived stellar mass estimates for intermediate-redshift (z < 0.65; median z= 0.2) galaxies in the Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) spectroscopic redshift survey. These masses, as well as the full set of ancillary stellar population parameters, will be made public as part of GAMA data release 2. Although the GAMA database does include near-infrared (NIR) photometry, we show that the quality of our stellar population synthesis fits is significantly poorer when these NIR data are included. Further, for a large fraction of galaxies, the stellar population parameters inferred from the optical-plus-NIR photometry are formally inconsistent with those inferred from the optical data alone. This may indicate problems in our stellar population library, or NIR data issues, or both; these issues will be addressed for future versions of the catalogue. For now, we have chosen to base our stellar mass estimates on optical photometry only. In light of our decision to ignore the available NIR data, we examine how well stellar mass can be constrained based on optical data alone. We use generic properties of stellar population synthesis models to demonstrate that restframe colour alone is in principle a very good estimator of stellar mass-to-light ratio, M*/Li. Further, we use the observed relation between restframe (g-i) and M*/Li for real GAMA galaxies to argue that, modulo uncertainties in the stellar evolution models themselves, (g-i) colour can in practice be used to estimate M*/Li to an accuracy of ≲0.1 dex (1σ). This 'empirically calibrated' (g-i)-M*/Li relation offers a simple and transparent means for estimating galaxies' stellar masses based on minimal data, and so provides a solid basis for other surveys to compare their results to z≲0.4 measurements from GAMA.

  7. Estimating human effects on global extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wright, D. H.

    1987-12-01

    A quantitative technique for estimating extinctions due to clearing of natural ecosystems is described. Applied on a global scale, the method yields preliminary figures on extinctions of flowering plants, butterflies, land birds and land mammals ranging from 5.4 to 15.3% for the period from the beginning of agriculture until the year 1980. Actual numbers of extinctions of mammals and birds to date are much lower, possibly in part due to a tendency for the technique to overestimate species loss at the global scale. However, delayed extinctions of species whose populations have been reduced but not exterminated by habitat destruction are likely, suggesting that human impacts may be more serious than they currently appear.

  8. Global Civil Aviation Black Carbon Particle Mass and Number Emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stettler, M. E. J.

    2015-12-01

    Black carbon (BC) is a product of incomplete combustion emitted by aircraft engines. In the atmosphere, BC particles strongly absorb incoming solar radiation and influence cloud formation processes leading to highly uncertain, but likely net positive warming of the earth's atmosphere. At cruise altitude, BC particle number emissions can influence the concentration of ice nuclei that can lead to contrail formation, with significant and highly uncertainty climate impacts. BC particles emitted by aircraft engines also degrade air quality in the vicinity of airports and globally. A significant contribution to the uncertainty in environmental impacts of aviation BC emissions is the uncertainty in emissions inventories. Previous work has shown that global aviation BC mass emissions are likely to have been underestimated by a factor of three. In this study, we present an updated global BC particle number inventory and evaluate parameters that contribute to uncertainty using global sensitivity analysis techniques. The method of calculating particle number from mass utilises a description of the mobility of fractal aggregates and uses the geometric mean diameter, geometric standard deviation, mass-mobility exponent, primary particle diameter and material density to relate the particle number concentration to the total mass concentration. Model results show good agreement with existing measurements of aircraft BC emissions at ground level and at cruise altitude. It is hoped that the results of this study can be applied to estimate direct and indirect climate impacts of aviation BC emissions in future studies.

  9. Estimation of ground state pentaquark masses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, K.; Ritjoho, N.; Srisuphaphon, S.; Yan, Y.

    2014-04-01

    Permutation groups are applied to analyze the symmetries of multiquark systems and wave functions of pentaquark states are constructed systematically in the language of Yamanouchi basis. We estimate the mass of baryons in the constituent quark model with one-gluon-exchange interaction, assuming that baryons consist of the q3 component as well as the q4/line q pentaquark component.

  10. Estimating the mass of Saturn's B ring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hedman, Matthew M.; Nicholson, Philip D.

    2016-10-01

    The B ring is the brightest and most opaque of Saturn's rings, but it is also amongst the least well understood because basic parameters like its surface mass density have been poorly constrained. Elsewhere in the rings, spiral density waves driven by resonances with Saturn's various moons provide precise and robust mass density estimates, but for most the B ring extremely high opacities and strong stochastic optical depth variations obscure the signal from these wave patterns. We have developed a new wavelet-based technique that combines data from multiple stellar occultations (observed by the Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer instrument onboard the Cassini spacecraft) that has allowed us to identify signals that appear to be due to waves generated by the strongest resonances in the central and outer B ring. These wave signatures yield new estimates of the B-ring's mass density and indicate that the B-ring's total mass could be quite low, between 1/3 and 2/3 the mass of Saturn's moon Mimas.

  11. Scaling Stellar Mass Estimates of Dwarf Galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carr, Brandon Michael; McQuinn, Kristen B.; Cannon, John M.; Dalcanton, Julianne; Dolphin, Andrew E.; Skillman, Evan D.; Williams, Benjamin F.; van Zee, Liese

    2017-01-01

    Hubble Space Telescope (HST) optical imaging of resolved stellar populations has been used to constrain the star formation history (SFH) and chemical evolution of many nearby dwarf galaxies. However, even for dwarf galaxies, the angle subtended by nearby systems can be greater than the HST field of view. Thus, estimates of stellar mass from the HST footprint do not accurately represent the total mass of the system, impacting how SFH results can be used in holistic comparisons of galaxy properties. Here, we use the SFHs of dwarfs combined with stellar population synthesis models to determine mass-to-light ratios for individual galaxies, and compare these values with measured infrared luminosities from Spitzer IRAC data. In this way, we determine what fraction of mass is not included in the HST field of view. To test our methodology, we focus on dwarfs whose stellar disks are contained within the HST observations. Then, we also apply this method to galaxies with larger angular sizes to scale the stellar masses accordingly.

  12. A reconciled estimate of ice-sheet mass balance.

    PubMed

    Shepherd, Andrew; Ivins, Erik R; A, Geruo; Barletta, Valentina R; Bentley, Mike J; Bettadpur, Srinivas; Briggs, Kate H; Bromwich, David H; Forsberg, René; Galin, Natalia; Horwath, Martin; Jacobs, Stan; Joughin, Ian; King, Matt A; Lenaerts, Jan T M; Li, Jilu; Ligtenberg, Stefan R M; Luckman, Adrian; Luthcke, Scott B; McMillan, Malcolm; Meister, Rakia; Milne, Glenn; Mouginot, Jeremie; Muir, Alan; Nicolas, Julien P; Paden, John; Payne, Antony J; Pritchard, Hamish; Rignot, Eric; Rott, Helmut; Sørensen, Louise Sandberg; Scambos, Ted A; Scheuchl, Bernd; Schrama, Ernst J O; Smith, Ben; Sundal, Aud V; van Angelen, Jan H; van de Berg, Willem J; van den Broeke, Michiel R; Vaughan, David G; Velicogna, Isabella; Wahr, John; Whitehouse, Pippa L; Wingham, Duncan J; Yi, Donghui; Young, Duncan; Zwally, H Jay

    2012-11-30

    We combined an ensemble of satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry data sets using common geographical regions, time intervals, and models of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment to estimate the mass balance of Earth's polar ice sheets. We find that there is good agreement between different satellite methods--especially in Greenland and West Antarctica--and that combining satellite data sets leads to greater certainty. Between 1992 and 2011, the ice sheets of Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula changed in mass by -142 ± 49, +14 ± 43, -65 ± 26, and -20 ± 14 gigatonnes year(-1), respectively. Since 1992, the polar ice sheets have contributed, on average, 0.59 ± 0.20 millimeter year(-1) to the rate of global sea-level rise.

  13. A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shepherd, Andrew; Ivins, Erik R.; Geruo, A.; Barletta, Valentia R.; Bentley, Mike J.; Bettadpur, Srinivas; Briggs, Kate H.; Bromwich, David H.; Forsberg, Rene; Galin, Natalia; Horwath, Martin; Jacobs, Stan; Joughin, Ian; King, Matt A.; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Li, Jilu; Ligtenberg, Stefan R. M.; Luckman, Adrian; Luthcke, Scott B.; McMillan, Malcolm; Meister, Rakia; Milne, Glenn; Mouginot, Jeremie; Muir, Alan; Nicolas,Julien P.; Paden, John; Payne, Antony J.; Pritchard, Hamish; Rignot, Eric; Rott, Helmut; Sorensen, Louise Sandberg; Scambos, Ted A.; Yi, Dohngui; Zwally, H. Jay

    2012-01-01

    We combined an ensemble of satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry data sets using common geographical regions, time intervals, and models of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment to estimate the mass balance of Earth's polar ice sheets. We find that there is good agreement between different satellite methods-especially in Greenland and West Antarctica-and that combining satellite data sets leads to greater certainty. Between 1992 and 2011, the ice sheets of Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula changed in mass by -142 plus or minus 49, +14 plus or minus 43, -65 plus or minus 26, and -20 plus or minus 14 gigatonnes year(sup -1), respectively. Since 1992, the polar ice sheets have contributed, on average, 0.59 plus or minus 0.20 millimeter year(sup -1) to the rate of global sea-level rise.

  14. An estimate of global absolute dynamic topography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tai, C.-K.; Wunsch, C.

    1984-01-01

    The absolute dynamic topography of the world ocean is estimated from the largest scales to a short-wavelength cutoff of about 6700 km for the period July through September, 1978. The data base consisted of the time-averaged sea-surface topography determined by Seasat and geoid estimates made at the Goddard Space Flight Center. The issues are those of accuracy and resolution. Use of the altimetric surface as a geoid estimate beyond the short-wavelength cutoff reduces the spectral leakage in the estimated dynamic topography from erroneous small-scale geoid estimates without contaminating the low wavenumbers. Comparison of the result with a similarly filtered version of Levitus' (1982) historical average dynamic topography shows good qualitative agreement. There is quantitative disagreement, but it is within the estimated errors of both methods of calculation.

  15. Global Warming Estimation From Microwave Sounding Unit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Dalu, G.

    1998-01-01

    Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) Ch 2 data sets, collected from sequential, polar-orbiting, Sun-synchronous National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration operational satellites, contain systematic calibration errors that are coupled to the diurnal temperature cycle over the globe. Since these coupled errors in MSU data differ between successive satellites, it is necessary to make compensatory adjustments to these multisatellite data sets in order to determine long-term global temperature change. With the aid of the observations during overlapping periods of successive satellites, we can determine such adjustments and use them to account for the coupled errors in the long-term time series of MSU Ch 2 global temperature. In turn, these adjusted MSU Ch 2 data sets can be used to yield global temperature trend. In a pioneering study, Spencer and Christy (SC) (1990) developed a procedure to derive the global temperature trend from MSU Ch 2 data. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedure, the magnitude of the coupled errors is not determined explicitly. Furthermore, based on some assumptions, these coupled errors are eliminated in three separate steps. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedures. Based on our analysis, we find there is a global warming of 0.23+/-0.12 K between 1980 and 1991. Also, in this study, the time series of global temperature anomalies constructed by removing the global mean annual temperature cycle compares favorably with a similar

  16. A global biogeochemical mass balance model for vanadium

    SciTech Connect

    Hope, B.K.

    1995-12-31

    Vanadium is a major trace metal in fossil fuels and combustion of these materials provides a significant source of vanadium in the environment. Close correlation exists between atmospheric vanadium concentration and fuel consumption, so that atmospheric vanadium pentoxide has been used as an indicator of human industrial activity. Little vanadium is retained in refined oil products, and vanadium contamination occurs as fallout from refining operations and burning of residual oils. This is the major cause for the approximate doubling of the environmental flux of vanadium as a result of human activity; other sources are products of coal combustion, leachates, and effluents from mining and milling of uranium and titanium. It was estimated in 1975 that the injection of vanadium into the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources equaled the input from natural sources. Such evidence that environmental levels of vanadium are increasing has raised concern over the injection of vanadium into the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources. A simple global mass balance model was developed to demonstrate the influence of anthropogenic vanadium on the global distribution of this trace metal. Vanadium in particulate emissions owing to man`s industrial activities were estimated to comprise {approx} 53% of total atmosphere vanadium loading and exceeded natural continental or volcanogenic dust by only a narrow margin. Oceanic deposition of vanadium adhering to anthropogenic particles was estimated to comprise {approx} 5% of total ocean vanadium loading. There is no suggestion that these inputs of anthropogenic vanadium pose a significant global environmental threat. It is entirely possible, however, that anthropogenic vanadium inputs could pose an environmental hazard given a more restricted area and a specific set of unfavorable circumstances.

  17. A Global Assessment of Accelerations in Mass Transport of Surface Geophysical Fluid

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, X.; Heflin, M. B.

    2015-12-01

    Mass transport in the Earth's surface geophysical fluid layer has complex spatiotemporal patterns. The GRACE gravity mission provides an unprecedented global capability to monitor this important process with high accuracy and resolution. Accurate assessments of global mass transport patterns and budget also depend critically on changes in degree-1 coefficients (geocenter motion) and in Earth's dynamic oblateness coefficient J2. We combine GRACE measurements, time series of GNSS data, JPL's ECCO ocean bottom pressure model, and high-resolution loose a priori models of mass variation regimes to derive complete spherical harmonic spectra of detrended mass variations up to degree and order 180. Mass accelerations are estimated along with linear, annual, semiannual, and the 161-day tidal aliasing components from coefficient time series. The appropriateness of a priori information and estimate uncertainties are further evaluated by variance component estimation and residual statistics of fitting the time series. During the GRACE data period of 2002.2-2015.0, accelerations in mass transport are geographically uneven with significant positive or negative accelerations in various parts of the world. While Greenland and West Antarctica show strong accelerated mass losses, Alaska and the Arctic Ocean have significant positive accelerations with reversals of earlier mass loss trends. No evidence of non-Arctic global mean sea level acceleration due to mass has been found. Depending on region, some estimated accelerations are also not steady over time due to large irregular and interannual variations.

  18. Topics in global convergence of density estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Devroye, L.

    1982-01-01

    The problem of estimating a density f on R sup d from a sample Xz(1),...,X(n) of independent identically distributed random vectors is critically examined, and some recent results in the field are reviewed. The following statements are qualified: (1) For any sequence of density estimates f(n), any arbitrary slow rate of convergence to 0 is possible for E(integral/f(n)-fl); (2) In theoretical comparisons of density estimates, integral/f(n)-f/ should be used and not integral/f(n)-f/sup p, p 1; and (3) For most reasonable nonparametric density estimates, either there is convergence of integral/f(n)-f/ (and then the convergence is in the strongest possible sense for all f), or there is no convergence (even in the weakest possible sense for a single f). There is no intermediate situation.

  19. The effects of missing data on global ozone estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Drewry, J. W.; Robbins, J. L.

    1981-01-01

    The effects of missing data and model truncation on estimates of the global mean, zonal distribution, and global distribution of ozone are considered. It is shown that missing data can introduce biased estimates with errors that are not accounted for in the accuracy calculations of empirical modeling techniques. Data-fill techniques are introduced and used for evaluating error bounds and constraining the estimate in areas of sparse and missing data. It is found that the accuracy of the global mean estimate is more dependent on data distribution than model size. Zonal features can be accurately described by 7th order models over regions of adequate data distribution. Data variance accounted for by higher order models appears to represent climatological features of columnar ozone rather than pure error. Data-fill techniques can prevent artificial feature generation in regions of sparse or missing data without degrading high order estimates over dense data regions.

  20. Estimates of global research productivity in virology.

    PubMed

    Falagas, Matthew E; Karavasiou, Antonia I; Bliziotis, Ioannis A

    2005-06-01

    The quantity and quality of published research in the field of Virology by different world regions was estimated in this study. Using the PubMed database, articles from journals included in the "Virology" category of the "Journal Citation Reports" database of the Institute for Scientific Information for the period 1995-2003 were retrieved. The world was divided into nine regions based on geographic, economic, and scientific criteria. Data on the country of origin of the research was available for 33,425 out of 33,712 articles (99.2% of all articles from the included journals). USA exceeds all other world regions in research production for the period studied (42% of total articles), with Western Europe ranking second (35.7%). The mean impact factor in articles published in Virology journals was highest for the USA (4.60), while it was 3.90 for Western Europe and 3.22 for the rest of the world (seven regions combined). USA and Canada ranked first in research productivity when both gross national income per capita (GNIPC) and population were taken into account. The results of this analysis show a distressing fact; the absolute and relative production of research in the field of Virology by the developing regions is very low, although viral diseases cause considerable morbidity and mortality in these areas. It is evident from this study that developing regions need more help from the developed regions to enhance research infrastructure.

  1. Estimation and Validation of Oceanic Mass Circulation from the GRACE Mission

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boy, J.-P.; Rowlands, D. D.; Sabaka, T. J.; Luthcke, S. B.; Lemoine, F. G.

    2011-01-01

    Since the launch of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) in March 2002, the Earth's surface mass variations have been monitored with unprecedented accuracy and resolution. Compared to the classical spherical harmonic solutions, global high-resolution mascon solutions allows the retrieval of mass variations with higher spatial and temporal sampling (2 degrees and 10 days). We present here the validation of the GRACE global mascon solutions by comparing mass estimates to a set of about 100 ocean bottom pressure (OSP) records, and show that the forward modelling of continental hydrology prior to the inversion of the K-band range rate data allows better estimates of ocean mass variations. We also validate our GRACE results to OSP variations modelled by different state-of-the-art ocean general circulation models, including ECCO (Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean) and operational and reanalysis from the MERCATOR project.

  2. Mass and volume contributions to twentieth-century global sea level rise.

    PubMed

    Miller, Laury; Douglas, Bruce C

    2004-03-25

    The rate of twentieth-century global sea level rise and its causes are the subjects of intense controversy. Most direct estimates from tide gauges give 1.5-2.0 mm yr(-1), whereas indirect estimates based on the two processes responsible for global sea level rise, namely mass and volume change, fall far below this range. Estimates of the volume increase due to ocean warming give a rate of about 0.5 mm yr(-1) (ref. 8) and the rate due to mass increase, primarily from the melting of continental ice, is thought to be even smaller. Therefore, either the tide gauge estimates are too high, as has been suggested recently, or one (or both) of the mass and volume estimates is too low. Here we present an analysis of sea level measurements at tide gauges combined with observations of temperature and salinity in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans close to the gauges. We find that gauge-determined rates of sea level rise, which encompass both mass and volume changes, are two to three times higher than the rates due to volume change derived from temperature and salinity data. Our analysis supports earlier studies that put the twentieth-century rate in the 1.5-2.0 mm yr(-1) range, but more importantly it suggests that mass increase plays a larger role than ocean warming in twentieth-century global sea level rise.

  3. Spectral estimation of global levels of atmospheric pollutants.

    PubMed

    Fernández-Macho, Javier

    2011-10-01

    Underlying levels of atmospheric pollutants, assumed to be governed by smoothing mechanisms due to atmospheric dispersion, can be estimated from global emissions source databases on greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting compounds. However, spatial data may be contaminated with noise or even missing or zero-valued at many locations. Therefore, a problem that arises is how to extract the underlying smooth levels. This paper sets out a structural spatial model that assumes data evolve across a global grid constrained by second-order smoothing restrictions. The frequency-domain approach is particularly suitable for global datasets, reduces the computational burden associated with two-dimensional models and avoids cumbersome zero-inflated skewed distributions. Confidence intervals of the underlying levels are also obtained. An application to the estimation of global levels of atmospheric pollutants from anthropogenic emissions illustrates the technique which may also be useful in the analysis of other environmental datasets of similar characteristics.

  4. Axion mass estimates from resonant Josephson junctions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beck, Christian

    2015-03-01

    Recently it has been proposed that dark matter axions from the galactic halo can produce a small Shapiro step-like signal in Josephson junctions whose Josephson frequency resonates with the axion mass (Beck, 2013). Here we show that the axion field equations in a voltage-driven Josephson junction environment allow for a nontrivial solution where the axion-induced electrical current manifests itself as an oscillating supercurrent. The linear change of phase associated with this nontrivial solution implies the formal existence of a large magnetic field in a tiny surface area of the weak link region of the junction which makes incoming axions decay into microwave photons. We derive a condition for the design of Josephson junction experiments so that they can act as optimum axion detectors. Four independent recent experiments are discussed in this context. The observed Shapiro step anomalies of all four experiments consistently point towards an axion mass of (110±2) μeV. This mass value is compatible with the recent BICEP2 results and implies that Peccei-Quinn symmetry breaking was taking place after inflation.

  5. Precise determination of earth's center of mass using measurements from the Global Positioning System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vigue, Yvonne; Lichten, Stephen M.; Blewitt, Geoffrey; Heflin, Michael B.; Malla, Rajendra P.

    1992-01-01

    Global Positioning System (GPS) data from a worldwide geodetic experiment were collected during a 3-week period early in 1991. Geocentric station coordinates were estimated using the GPS data, thus defining a dynamically determined reference frame origin which should coincide with the earth center of mass, or geocenter. The 3-week GPS average geocenter estimates agree to 7-13 cm with geocenter estimates determined from satellite laser ranging, a well-established technique. The RMS of daily GPS geocenter estimates were 4 cm for x and y, and 30 cm for z.

  6. Globalization, commodification and mass transplant of nurses: Part 1.

    PubMed

    Cutcliffe, John R; Yarbrough, Susan

    The world is currently facing a shortage of nurses and this is predicted to worsen as a result of the looming en masse retirement of the so-called 'baby-boom' generation. Moreover, this problem is foreseen to be far more pronounced in Western countries where the post-Second World War 'baby-boom' demographic was (and is) most prominent. Data collected by various international organizations illustrates a corresponding recent increase in nurse migration and that such mass transplantation inevitably involves the unidirectional movement of nurses from developing countries to developed Western countries. As a result, this two-part article examines this mass transplantation within the context of globalization. Part one provides compelling international data regarding the global shortage of nurses and the corresponding increase in nurse migration from 'underdeveloped' to 'Western' countries. It then situates the phenomenon in the context of global health and highlights the extent of the debate so far, such as it is.

  7. On Estimating the Total Number of Intermediate Mass Black Holes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caputo, Daniel P.; de Vries, Nathan; Patruno, Alessandro; Portegies Zwart, Simon

    2017-01-01

    Black holes have been detected with masses less than 102 and greater than 105 M⊙, but black holes with masses in the intermediate range are conspicuously absent. However, recent estimates of the mass of HLX-1, currently the strongest intermediate mass black hole (IMBH) candidate, suggest an approximate mass of 104 M⊙, and recent estimates of the mass of M82 X-1 suggest a mass of 4 × 102, placing them within the missing black hole range. This raises the question of whether these are unique objects or if many more of these objects should be expected. We estimate the number of HLX-1 like IMBHs expected within the distance of 100 Mpc to be within an order of ≈106, or ≈102 IMBHs within a galaxy, and about two orders of magnitude more when considering less massive IMBHs using M82 X-1 as a prototype. In the process of estimating this value we determine the form of the mass function within the sphere of influence of a newly formed IMBH to be a power law with a slope of -1.83. Furthermore, we find we are only able to fit both the period and luminosity of HLX-1 with a stellar companion with a mass between ≈10 - 11 M⊙, a result which is fairly robust to the mass of the IMBH between 103 and 105 M⊙.

  8. Global estimate of net annual carbon flow to phenylpropanoid metabolism

    SciTech Connect

    Walton, A.B.; Norman, E.G.; Turpin, D.H. )

    1993-05-01

    The steady increase in the concentration of CO[sub 2] in the atmosphere is the focus of renewed interest in the global carbon cycle. Current research is centered upon modeling the effects of the increasing CO[sub 2] concentrations, and thus global warning, on global plant homeostasis. It has been estimated that the annual net primary production (NPP) values for terrestrial and oceanic biomes are 59.9 and 35 Pg C-yr[sup [minus]1], respectively (Melillo et al., 1990). Based on these NPP values, we have estimated the annual C flow to phenlpropanoid metabolism. In our calculation, lignin was used as a surrogate for phenylpropanoid compounds, as lignin is the second most abundant plant polymer. This approach means that our estimate defines the lower limit of C flow to phenylpropanoid metabolism. Each biome was considered separately to determine the percent of the NPP which was directed to the biosynthesis of leaves, stems/branches, and roots. From published values of the lignin content of these organs, the total amount of C directed to the biosynthesis of lignin in each biome was determined. This was used to obtain a global value. Implications of these estimates will be discussed with reference to plant carbon and nitrogen metabolism.

  9. Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Estimation and Risk Management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

  10. Estimation of lipids and lean mass of migrating sandpipers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Skagen, Susan K.; Knopf, Fritz L.; Cade, Brian S.

    1993-01-01

    Estimation of lean mass and lipid levels in birds involves the derivation of predictive equations that relate morphological measurements and, more recently, total body electrical conductivity (TOBEC) indices to known lean and lipid masses. Using cross-validation techniques, we evaluated the ability of several published and new predictive equations to estimate lean and lipid mass of Semipalmated Sandpipers (Calidris pusilla) and White-rumped Sandpipers (C. fuscicollis). We also tested ideas of Morton et al. (1991), who stated that current statistical approaches to TOBEC methodology misrepresent precision in estimating body fat. Three published interspecific equations using TOBEC indices predicted lean and lipid masses of our sample of birds with average errors of 8-28% and 53-155%, respectively. A new two-species equation relating lean mass and TOBEC indices revealed average errors of 4.6% and 23.2% in predicting lean and lipid mass, respectively. New intraspecific equations that estimate lipid mass directly from body mass, morphological measurements, and TOBEC indices yielded about a 13% error in lipid estimates. Body mass and morphological measurements explained a substantial portion of the variance (about 90%) in fat mass of both species. Addition of TOBEC indices improved the predictive model more for the smaller than for the larger sandpiper. TOBEC indices explained an additional 7.8% and 2.6% of the variance in fat mass and reduced the minimum breadth of prediction intervals by 0.95 g (32%) and 0.39 g (13%) for Semipalmated and White-rumped Sandpipers, respectively. The breadth of prediction intervals for models used to predict fat levels of individual birds must be considered when interpreting the resultant lipid estimates.

  11. Challenges and Approaches for Data Quality in Global Precipitation Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huffman, G. J.

    2011-12-01

    It is a substantial challenge to estimate the global distribution of precipitation at the finest scales because the retrieval problem is highly underdetermined, given the available satellite and surface data and the approximations that are needed to compute solutions. Sampling is improved by combining precipitation estimates from as many precipitation-relevant satellites as possible, but this step introduces the necessity of coping with differing retrieval capabilities from the various satellites. The usual response is to inter-calibrate the satellite estimates, usually choosing one satellite as a standard and performing histogram matching with coincident data for all the other satellites. Such matching requires numerous design decisions for practical use. As well, it has been shown that monthly accumulations of surface precipitation gauge data can be used to reduce bias and improve patterns of occurrence for monthly accumulations of satellite data, and short-interval satellite estimates can be improved with a simple scaling such that they sum to the monthly satellite-gauge combination. However, the quality of the short-interval estimates is still dominated by the random errors. Spatial and/or temporal averaging improve the random-error content of the estimates, although not the bias. This observation has a profound implication for the perceived utility of the precipitation data: applications that entail explicit or implicit averaging usually tolerate higher levels of random error than applications requiring skill in the full-resolution estimates. The presentation will consider some of the current issues confronting the analysis of error and quality for global precipitation. These include consideration of: how best to estimate the error for fine-scale precipitation estimates, particularly in areas where the precipitation estimate is zero; the impact of high- and low-end thresholds in estimators; and metrics that are appropriate to the fine-scale, discontinuous

  12. Estimating impacts of lichens and bryophytes on global biogeochemical cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porada, Philipp; Weber, Bettina; Elbert, Wolfgang; Pöschl, Ulrich; Kleidon, Axel

    2014-02-01

    Lichens and bryophytes may significantly affect global biogeochemical cycles by fixation of nitrogen and biotic enhancement of surface weathering rates. Most of the studies suggesting these effects, however, are either conceptual or rely on upscaling of regional estimates to obtain global numbers. Here we use a different method, based on estimates of net carbon uptake, to quantify the impacts of lichens and bryophytes on biogeochemical cycles at the global scale. We focus on three processes, namely, nitrogen fixation, phosphorus uptake, and chemical weathering. Our estimates have the form of potential rates, which means that we quantify the amount of nitrogen and phosphorus needed by the organisms to build up biomass, also accounting for resorption and leaching of nutrients. Subsequently, we use potential phosphorus uptake on bare ground to estimate chemical weathering by the organisms, assuming that they release weathering agents to obtain phosphorus. The predicted requirement for nitrogen ranges from 3.5 to 34 Tgyr-1 and for phosphorus it ranges from 0.46 to 4.6 Tgyr-1. Estimates of chemical weathering are between 0.058 and 1.1 km3 yr-1 of rock. These values seem to have a realistic order of magnitude, and they support the notion that lichens and bryophytes have the potential to play an important role for biogeochemical cycles.

  13. CALIBRATING C-IV-BASED BLACK HOLE MASS ESTIMATORS

    SciTech Connect

    Park, Daeseong; Woo, Jong-Hak; Shin, Jaejin; Denney, Kelly D. E-mail: woo@astro.snu.ac.kr E-mail: kelly@dark-cosmology.dk

    2013-06-20

    We present the single-epoch black hole mass estimators based on the C IV {lambda}1549 broad emission line, using the updated sample of the reverberation-mapped active galactic nuclei and high-quality UV spectra. By performing multi-component spectral fitting analysis, we measure the C IV line widths (FWHM{sub C{sub IV}} and line dispersion, {sigma}{sub C{sub IV}}) and the continuum luminosity at 1350 A (L{sub 1350}) to calibrate the C-IV-based mass estimators. By comparing with the H{beta} reverberation-based masses, we provide new mass estimators with the best-fit relationships, i.e., M{sub BH}{proportional_to}L{sub 1350}{sup 0.50{+-}0.07}{sigma}{sub C{sub IV}{sup 2}} and M{sub BH}{proportional_to}L{sub 1350}{sup 0.52{+-}0.09} FWHM{sub C{sub IV}{sup 0.56{+-}0.48}}. The new C-IV-based mass estimators show significant mass-dependent systematic difference compared to the estimators commonly used in the literature. Using the published Sloan Digital Sky Survey QSO catalog, we show that the black hole mass of high-redshift QSOs decreases on average by {approx}0.25 dex if our recipe is adopted.

  14. Calibrating C-IV-based Black Hole Mass Estimators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Daeseong; Woo, Jong-Hak; Denney, Kelly D.; Shin, Jaejin

    2013-06-01

    We present the single-epoch black hole mass estimators based on the C IV λ1549 broad emission line, using the updated sample of the reverberation-mapped active galactic nuclei and high-quality UV spectra. By performing multi-component spectral fitting analysis, we measure the C IV line widths (FWHMC IV and line dispersion, σC IV ) and the continuum luminosity at 1350 Å (L 1350) to calibrate the C-IV-based mass estimators. By comparing with the Hβ reverberation-based masses, we provide new mass estimators with the best-fit relationships, i.e., M_BH \\propto L_{1350}^{0.50+/- 0.07} \\sigma _{C\\,\\scriptsize{IV}}^{2} and M_BH \\propto L_{1350}^{0.52+/- 0.09}\\,FWHM_{C\\,\\scriptsize{IV}}^{0.56+/- 0.48}. The new C-IV-based mass estimators show significant mass-dependent systematic difference compared to the estimators commonly used in the literature. Using the published Sloan Digital Sky Survey QSO catalog, we show that the black hole mass of high-redshift QSOs decreases on average by ~0.25 dex if our recipe is adopted.

  15. Greenland ice mass balance estimation from GRACE: a reexamination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jensen, L.; Eicker, A.; Kusche, J.

    2011-12-01

    In recent years there have been several studies using GRACE satellite data to investigate the melting of the Greenland ice sheet. The results of the different investigations vary considerably. In this study, monthly GRACE solutions calculated by the Institute of Geodesy and Geoinformation of the University Bonn (ITG-GRACE2010 solutions) are evaluated to obtain a new estimate for the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet including the corresponding error estimate. One of the major issues when dealing with the mass variations in Greenland is the leakage problem. In the contribution at hand, leakage-in effects caused by external mass variations are adressed by estimating a regional adjustment of the applied ocean model. The approach assumes time-invariant spatial patterns of ocean mass variations to be correctly reproduced in the circulation model but their time-variable amplitudes to be improvable. New amplitudes are determined by comparison to the GRACE observations in a least-squares estimation process. Leakage-out can be compensated for by rescaling the ice mass changes with a constant factor. In addition to a simple technique, a more complex approach developed by Baur et al. (2009) is applied in this investigation to obtain the rescaling factor. Besides mass variations in the area of Greenland also mass variations in an extended area around Greenland are taken into account in this procedure. A further important aspect is the problem of signal separation, especially separating the ice mass variations from mass trends caused by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). A comparison of different GIA models shows why this is one of the major sources of uncertainty when trying to determine the Greenland ice mass balance. The possibility to improve GIA modelling using geodetic data is therefore another aspect which will be discussed on the poster. The results of the new ice mass balance estimate from GRACE will be compared to the results obtained from alternative

  16. Globalization, commodification and mass transplant of nurses: Part 1.

    PubMed

    Cutcliffe, John R; Yarbrough, Susan

    This two-part article examines the mass transplantation of nurses within the context of globalization. Part one focused on the international data regarding the global shortage of nurses, the increase in nurse migration from 'underdeveloped' to 'Western' countries, definitions and descriptions of global health and summarized the debate so far, such as it is. Part two draws attention to how this group of migrating nurses is more often than not comprised disproportionately of women and accordingly, draws on critical feminist ideas to demonstrate how such mass transplantation of nurses adds to the idea of women as a commodity. It then draws attention to other similar examples of the commodification of women and highlights the impacts of the loss of this labour force on the 'exporting' countries. The article concludes by joining with others who have proffered constructive suggestions for addressing this problem.

  17. Evapotranspiration: Mass balance measurements compared with flux estimation methods

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Evapotranspiration (ET) may be measured by mass balance methods and estimated by flux sensing methods. The mass balance methods are typically restricted in terms of the area that can be represented (e.g., surface area of weighing lysimeter (LYS) or equivalent representative area of neutron probe (NP...

  18. Stacked Weak Lensing Mass Calibration: Estimators, Systematics, and Impact on Cosmological Parameter Constraints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rozo, Eduardo; Wu, Hao-Yi; Schmidt, Fabian

    2011-07-01

    When extracting the weak lensing shear signal, one may employ either locally normalized or globally normalized shear estimators. The former is the standard approach when estimating cluster masses, while the latter is the more common method among peak finding efforts. While both approaches have identical signal-to-noise in the weak lensing limit, it is possible that higher order corrections or systematic considerations make one estimator preferable over the other. In this paper, we consider the efficacy of both estimators within the context of stacked weak lensing mass estimation in the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We find that the two estimators have nearly identical statistical precision, even after including higher order corrections, but that these corrections must be incorporated into the analysis to avoid observationally relevant biases in the recovered masses. We also demonstrate that finite bin-width effects may be significant if not properly accounted for, and that the two estimators exhibit different systematics, particularly with respect to contamination of the source catalog by foreground galaxies. Thus, the two estimators may be employed as a systematic cross-check of each other. Stacked weak lensing in the DES should allow for the mean mass of galaxy clusters to be calibrated to ≈2% precision (statistical only), which can improve the figure of merit of the DES cluster abundance experiment by a factor of ~3 relative to the self-calibration expectation. A companion paper investigates how the two types of estimators considered here impact weak lensing peak finding efforts.

  19. Stacked Weak Lensing Mass Calibration: Estimators, Systematics, and Impact on Cosmological Parameter Constraints

    SciTech Connect

    Rozo, Eduardo; Wu, Hao-Yi; Schmidt, Fabian; /Caltech

    2011-11-04

    When extracting the weak lensing shear signal, one may employ either locally normalized or globally normalized shear estimators. The former is the standard approach when estimating cluster masses, while the latter is the more common method among peak finding efforts. While both approaches have identical signal-to-noise in the weak lensing limit, it is possible that higher order corrections or systematic considerations make one estimator preferable over the other. In this paper, we consider the efficacy of both estimators within the context of stacked weak lensing mass estimation in the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We find that the two estimators have nearly identical statistical precision, even after including higher order corrections, but that these corrections must be incorporated into the analysis to avoid observationally relevant biases in the recovered masses. We also demonstrate that finite bin-width effects may be significant if not properly accounted for, and that the two estimators exhibit different systematics, particularly with respect to contamination of the source catalog by foreground galaxies. Thus, the two estimators may be employed as a systematic cross-check of each other. Stacked weak lensing in the DES should allow for the mean mass of galaxy clusters to be calibrated to {approx}2% precision (statistical only), which can improve the figure of merit of the DES cluster abundance experiment by a factor of {approx}3 relative to the self-calibration expectation. A companion paper investigates how the two types of estimators considered here impact weak lensing peak finding efforts.

  20. Evaluation of Black Carbon Estimations in Global Aerosol Models

    SciTech Connect

    Koch, D.; Schulz, M.; Kinne, Stefan; McNaughton, C. S.; Spackman, J. R.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S.; Berntsen, T.; Bond, Tami C.; Boucher, Olivier; Chin, M.; Clarke, A. D.; De Luca, N.; Dentener, F.; Diehl, T.; Dubovik, O.; Easter, Richard C.; Fahey, D. W.; Feichter, J.; Fillmore, D.; Freitag, S.; Ghan, Steven J.; Ginoux, P.; Gong, S.; Horowitz, L.; Iversen, T.; Kirkevag, A.; Klimont, Z.; Kondo, Yutaka; Krol, M.; Liu, Xiaohong; Miller, R.; Montanaro, V.; Moteki, N.; Myhre, G.; Penner, J.; Perlwitz, Ja; Pitari, G.; Reddy, S.; Sahu, L.; Sakamoto, H.; Schuster, G.; Schwarz, J. P.; Seland, O.; Stier, P.; Takegawa, Nobuyuki; Takemura, T.; Textor, C.; van Aardenne, John; Zhao, Y.

    2009-11-27

    range represented by the full set of AeroCom models. Upper tropospheric concentrations of BC mass from the aircraft measurements are suggested to provide a unique new benchmark to test scavenging and vertical dispersion of BC in global models.

  1. Estimated Global Mortality Attributable to Smoke from Landscape Fires

    PubMed Central

    Henderson, Sarah B.; Chen, Yang; Randerson, James T.; Marlier, Miriam; DeFries, Ruth S.; Kinney, Patrick; Bowman, David M.J.S.; Brauer, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Background: Forest, grass, and peat fires release approximately 2 petagrams of carbon into the atmosphere each year, influencing weather, climate, and air quality. Objective: We estimated the annual global mortality attributable to landscape fire smoke (LFS). Methods: Daily and annual exposure to particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) from fire emissions was estimated globally for 1997 through 2006 by combining outputs from a chemical transport model with satellite-based observations of aerosol optical depth. In World Health Organization (WHO) subregions classified as sporadically affected, the daily burden of mortality was estimated using previously published concentration–response coefficients for the association between short-term elevations in PM2.5 from LFS (contrasted with 0 μg/m3 from LFS) and all-cause mortality. In subregions classified as chronically affected, the annual burden of mortality was estimated using the American Cancer Society study coefficient for the association between long-term PM2.5 exposure and all-cause mortality. The annual average PM2.5 estimates were contrasted with theoretical minimum (counterfactual) concentrations in each chronically affected subregion. Sensitivity of mortality estimates to different exposure assessments, counterfactual estimates, and concentration–response functions was evaluated. Strong La Niña and El Niño years were compared to assess the influence of interannual climatic variability. Results: Our principal estimate for the average mortality attributable to LFS exposure was 339,000 deaths annually. In sensitivity analyses the interquartile range of all tested estimates was 260,000–600,000. The regions most affected were sub-Saharan Africa (157,000) and Southeast Asia (110,000). Estimated annual mortality during La Niña was 262,000, compared with 532,000 during El Niño. Conclusions: Fire emissions are an important contributor to global mortality. Adverse health outcomes

  2. Rapid estimation of the economic consequences of global earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, operational since mid 2007, rapidly estimates the most affected locations and the population exposure at different levels of shaking intensities. The PAGER system has significantly improved the way aid agencies determine the scale of response needed in the aftermath of an earthquake. For example, the PAGER exposure estimates provided reasonably accurate assessments of the scale and spatial extent of the damage and losses following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) in China, the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (Mw 6.3) in Italy, the 2010 Haiti earthquake (Mw 7.0), and the 2010 Chile earthquake (Mw 8.8). Nevertheless, some engineering and seismological expertise is often required to digest PAGER's exposure estimate and turn it into estimated fatalities and economic losses. This has been the focus of PAGER's most recent development. With the new loss-estimation component of the PAGER system it is now possible to produce rapid estimation of expected fatalities for global earthquakes (Jaiswal and others, 2009). While an estimate of earthquake fatalities is a fundamental indicator of potential human consequences in developing countries (for example, Iran, Pakistan, Haiti, Peru, and many others), economic consequences often drive the responses in much of the developed world (for example, New Zealand, the United States, and Chile), where the improved structural behavior of seismically resistant buildings significantly reduces earthquake casualties. Rapid availability of estimates of both fatalities and economic losses can be a valuable resource. The total time needed to determine the actual scope of an earthquake disaster and to respond effectively varies from country to country. It can take days or sometimes weeks before the damage and consequences of a disaster can be understood both socially and economically. The objective of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system is

  3. Asteroid mass estimation using Markov-Chain Monte Carlo techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siltala, Lauri; Granvik, Mikael

    2016-10-01

    Estimates for asteroid masses are based on their gravitational perturbations on the orbits of other objects such as Mars, spacecraft, or other asteroids and/or their satellites. In the case of asteroid-asteroid perturbations, this leads to a 13-dimensional inverse problem where the aim is to derive the mass of the perturbing asteroid and six orbital elements for both the perturbing asteroid and the test asteroid using astrometric observations. We have developed and implemented three different mass estimation algorithms utilizing asteroid-asteroid perturbations into the OpenOrb asteroid-orbit-computation software: the very rough 'marching' approximation, in which the asteroid orbits are fixed at a given epoch, reducing the problem to a one-dimensional estimation of the mass, an implementation of the Nelder-Mead simplex method, and most significantly, a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. We will introduce each of these algorithms with particular focus on the MCMC algorithm, and present example results for both synthetic and real data. Our results agree with the published mass estimates, but suggest that the published uncertainties may be misleading as a consequence of using linearized mass-estimation methods. Finally, we discuss remaining challenges with the algorithms as well as future plans, particularly in connection with ESA's Gaia mission.

  4. Space Geodesy Monitoring Mass Transport in Global Geophysical Fluids

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chao, Benjamin F.

    2004-01-01

    Mass transports occurring in the atmosphere-hydrosphere-cryosphere-solid Earth-core system (the 'global geophysical fluids') are important geophysical phenomena. They occur on all temporal and spatial scales. Examples include air mass and ocean circulations, oceanic and solid tides, hydrological water and idsnow redistribution, mantle processes such as post-glacial rebound, earthquakes and tectonic motions, and core geodynamo activities. The temporal history and spatial pattern of such mass transport are often not amenable to direct observations. Space geodesy techniques, however, have proven to be an effective tool in monitorihg certain direct consequences of the mass transport, including Earth's rotation variations, gravitational field variations, and the geocenter motion. Considerable advances have been made in recent years in observing and understanding of these geodynamic effects. This paper will use several prominent examples to illustrate the triumphs in research over the past years under a 'Moore's law' in space geodesy. New space missions and projects promise to further advance our knowledge about the global mass transports. The latter contributes to our understanding of the geophysical processes that produce and regulate the mass transports, as well as of the solid Earth's response to such changes in terms of Earth's mechanical properties.

  5. Uncertainty estimates of altimetric Global Mean Sea Level timeseries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scharffenberg, Martin; Hemming, Michael; Stammer, Detlef

    2016-04-01

    An attempt is being presented concerned with providing uncertainty measures for global mean sea level time series. For this purpose sea surface height (SSH) fields, simulated by the high resolution STORM/NCEP model for the period 1993 - 2010, were subsampled along altimeter tracks and processed similar to techniques used by five working groups to estimate GMSL. Results suggest that the spatial and temporal resolution have a substantial impact on GMSL estimates. Major impacts can especially result from the interpolation technique or the treatment of SSH outliers and easily lead to artificial temporal variability in the resulting time series.

  6. Mass Estimators for Flattened Dispersion-supported Galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanders, Jason L.; Evans, N. Wyn

    2016-10-01

    We investigate the reliability of mass estimators based on the observable velocity dispersion and half-light radius R h for dispersion-supported galaxies. We show how to extend them to flattened systems and provide simple formulae for the mass within an ellipsoid under the assumption the dark-matter density and the stellar density are stratified on the same self-similar ellipsoids. We demonstrate explicitly that the spherical mass estimators give accurate values for the mass within the half-light ellipsoid, provided R h is replaced by its “circularized” analog {R}{{h}}\\sqrt{1-ε }. We provide a mathematical justification for this surprisingly simple and effective workaround. It means, for example, that the mass-to-light ratios are valid not just when the light and dark matter are spherically distributed, but also when they are flattened on ellipsoids of the same constant shape.

  7. Think global, act local; projectome estimation with BlueMatter.

    PubMed

    Sherbondy, Anthony J; Dougherty, Robert F; Ananthanarayanan, Rajagopal; Modha, Dharmendra S; Wandell, Brian A

    2009-01-01

    Estimating the complete set of white matter fascicles (the projectome) from diffusion data requires evaluating an enormous number of potential pathways; consequently, most algorithms use computationally efficient greedy methods to search for pathways. The limitation of this approach is that critical global parameters--such as data prediction error and white matter volume conservation--are not taken into account. We describe BlueMatter, a parallel algorithm for global projectome evaluation, which uniquely accounts for global prediction error and volume conservation. Leveraging the BlueGene/L supercomputing architecture, BlueMatter explores a massive database of 180 billion candidate fascicles. The candidates are derived from several sources, including atlases and multiple tractography algorithms. Using BlueMatter we created the highest resolution, volume-conserved projectome of the human brain.

  8. Global estimates of boreal forest carbon stocks and flux

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bradshaw, Corey J. A.; Warkentin, Ian G.

    2015-05-01

    The boreal ecosystem is an important global reservoir of stored carbon and a haven for diverse biological communities. The natural disturbance dynamics there have historically been driven by fire and insects, with human-mediated disturbances increasing faster than in other biomes globally. Previous research on the total boreal carbon stock and predictions of its future flux reveal high uncertainty in regional patterns. We reviewed and standardised this extensive body of quantitative literature to provide the most up-to-date and comprehensive estimates of the global carbon balance in the boreal forest. We also compiled century-scale predictions of the carbon budget flux. Our review and standardisation confirmed high uncertainty in the available data, but there is evidence that the region's total carbon stock has been underestimated. We found a total carbon store of 367.3 to 1715.8 Pg (1015 g), the mid-point of which (1095 Pg) is between 1.3 and 3.8 times larger than any previous mean estimates. Most boreal carbon resides in its soils and peatlands, although estimates are highly uncertain. We found evidence that the region might become a net carbon source following a reduction in carbon uptake rate from at least the 1980s. Given that the boreal potentially constitutes the largest terrestrial carbon source in the world, in one of the most rapidly warming parts of the globe (Walsh, 2014), how we manage these stocks will be influential on future climate dynamics.

  9. Estimation of gross primary production capacity from global satellite observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muramatsu, Kanako; Thanyapraneedkul, Juthasinee; Furumi, Shinobu; Soyama, Noriko; Daigo, Motomasa

    2012-10-01

    To estimate gross primary production (GPP), the process of photosynthesis was considered as two separate phases: capacity and reduction. The reduction phase is influenced by environmental conditions such as soil moisture and weather conditions such as vapor pressure differences. For a particular leaf, photosynthetic capacity mainly depends on the amount of chlorophyll and the RuBisCO enzyme. The chlorophyll content can be estimated by the color of the leaf, and leaf color can be detected by optical sensors. We used the chlorophyll content of leaves to estimate the level of GPP. A previously developed framework for GPP capacity estimation employs a chlorophyll index. The index is based on the linear relationship between the chlorophyll content of a leaf and the maximum photosynthesis at PAR =2000 (μmolm -2s-1) on a light-response curve under low stress conditions. As a first step, this study examined the global distribution of the index and found that regions with high chlorophyll index values in winter corresponded to tropical rainforest areas. The seasonal changes in the chlorophyll index differed from those shown by the normalized difference vegetation index. Next, the capacity of GPP was estimated from the light-response curve using the index. Most regions exhibited a higher GPP capacity than that estimated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations, except in areas of tropical rainforest, where the GPP capacity and the MODIS GPP estimates were almost identical.

  10. Optimizing weak lensing mass estimates for cluster profile uncertainty

    SciTech Connect

    Gruen, D.; Bernstein, G. M.; Lam, T. Y.; Seitz, S.

    2011-09-11

    Weak lensing measurements of cluster masses are necessary for calibrating mass-observable relations (MORs) to investigate the growth of structure and the properties of dark energy. However, the measured cluster shear signal varies at fixed mass M200m due to inherent ellipticity of background galaxies, intervening structures along the line of sight, and variations in the cluster structure due to scatter in concentrations, asphericity and substructure. We use N-body simulated halos to derive and evaluate a weak lensing circular aperture mass measurement Map that minimizes the mass estimate variance <(Map - M200m)2> in the presence of all these forms of variability. Depending on halo mass and observational conditions, the resulting mass estimator improves on Map filters optimized for circular NFW-profile clusters in the presence of uncorrelated large scale structure (LSS) about as much as the latter improve on an estimator that only minimizes the influence of shape noise. Optimizing for uncorrelated LSS while ignoring the variation of internal cluster structure puts too much weight on the profile near the cores of halos, and under some circumstances can even be worse than not accounting for LSS at all. As a result, we discuss the impact of variability in cluster structure and correlated structures on the design and performance of weak lensing surveys intended to calibrate cluster MORs.

  11. Optimizing weak lensing mass estimates for cluster profile uncertainty

    DOE PAGES

    Gruen, D.; Bernstein, G. M.; Lam, T. Y.; ...

    2011-09-11

    Weak lensing measurements of cluster masses are necessary for calibrating mass-observable relations (MORs) to investigate the growth of structure and the properties of dark energy. However, the measured cluster shear signal varies at fixed mass M200m due to inherent ellipticity of background galaxies, intervening structures along the line of sight, and variations in the cluster structure due to scatter in concentrations, asphericity and substructure. We use N-body simulated halos to derive and evaluate a weak lensing circular aperture mass measurement Map that minimizes the mass estimate variance <(Map - M200m)2> in the presence of all these forms of variability. Dependingmore » on halo mass and observational conditions, the resulting mass estimator improves on Map filters optimized for circular NFW-profile clusters in the presence of uncorrelated large scale structure (LSS) about as much as the latter improve on an estimator that only minimizes the influence of shape noise. Optimizing for uncorrelated LSS while ignoring the variation of internal cluster structure puts too much weight on the profile near the cores of halos, and under some circumstances can even be worse than not accounting for LSS at all. As a result, we discuss the impact of variability in cluster structure and correlated structures on the design and performance of weak lensing surveys intended to calibrate cluster MORs.« less

  12. A Global Estimate of the Number of Coral Reef Fishers.

    PubMed

    Teh, Louise S L; Teh, Lydia C L; Sumaila, U Rashid

    2013-01-01

    Overfishing threatens coral reefs worldwide, yet there is no reliable estimate on the number of reef fishers globally. We address this data gap by quantifying the number of reef fishers on a global scale, using two approaches - the first estimates reef fishers as a proportion of the total number of marine fishers in a country, based on the ratio of reef-related to total marine fish landed values. The second estimates reef fishers as a function of coral reef area, rural coastal population, and fishing pressure. In total, we find that there are 6 million reef fishers in 99 reef countries and territories worldwide, of which at least 25% are reef gleaners. Our estimates are an improvement over most existing fisher population statistics, which tend to omit accounting for gleaners and reef fishers. Our results suggest that slightly over a quarter of the world's small-scale fishers fish on coral reefs, and half of all coral reef fishers are in Southeast Asia. Coral reefs evidently support the socio-economic well-being of numerous coastal communities. By quantifying the number of people who are employed as reef fishers, we provide decision-makers with an important input into planning for sustainable coral reef fisheries at the appropriate scale.

  13. Predictive Attitude Estimation Using Global Positioning System Signals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crassidis, John L.; Markley, F. Landis; Lightsey, E. Glenn; Ketchum, Eleanor

    1997-01-01

    In this paper, a new algorithm is developed for attitude estimation using Global Positioning System (GPS) signals. The new algorithm is based on a predictive filtering scheme designed for spacecraft without rate measuring devices. The major advantage of this new algorithm over traditional Kalman filter approaches is that the model error is not assumed to represented by an unbiased Gaussian noise process with known covariance, but instead is determined during the estimation process. This is achieved by simultaneously solving system optimality conditions and an output error constraint. This approach is well suited for GPS attitude estimation since some error sources that contribute to attitude inaccuracy, such as signal multipath, are known to be non-Gaussian processes. Also, the predictive filter scheme can use either GPS signals or vector observations or a combination of both for attitude estimation, so that performance characteristics can be maintained during periods of GPS attitude sensor outage. The performance of the new algorithm is tested using flight data from the REX-2 spacecraft. Results are shown using the predictive filter to estimate the attitude from both GPS signals and magnetometer measurements, and comparing that solution to a magnetometer-only based solution. Results using the new estimation algorithm indicate that GPS-based solutions are verified to within 2 degrees using the magnetometer cross-check for the REX-2 spacecraft. GPS attitude accuracy of better than 1 degree is expected per axis, but cannot be reliably proven due to inaccuracies in the magnetic field model.

  14. Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yuan, W.; Luo, Y.; Li, X.; Liu, S.; Yu, G.; Zhou, T.; Bahn, M.; Black, A.; Desai, A.R.; Cescatti, A.; Marcolla, B.; Jacobs, C.; Chen, J.; Aurela, M.; Bernhofer, C.; Gielen, B.; Bohrer, G.; Cook, D.R.; Dragoni, D.; Dunn, A.L.; Gianelle, D.; Grnwald, T.; Ibrom, A.; Leclerc, M.Y.; Lindroth, A.; Liu, H.; Marchesini, L.B.; Montagnani, L.; Pita, G.; Rodeghiero, M.; Rodrigues, A.; Starr, G.; Stoy, P.C.

    2011-01-01

    Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models still use a global constant BR largely due to the lack of a functional description for BR. In this study, we redefined BR to be ecosystem respiration rate at the mean annual temperature. To test the validity of this concept, we conducted a synthesis analysis using 276 site-years of eddy covariance data, from 79 research sites located at latitudes ranging from ∼3°S to ∼70°N. Results showed that mean annual ER rate closely matches ER rate at mean annual temperature. Incorporation of site-specific BR into global ER model substantially improved simulated ER compared to an invariant BR at all sites. These results confirm that ER at the mean annual temperature can be considered as BR in empirical models. A strong correlation was found between the mean annual ER and mean annual gross primary production (GPP). Consequently, GPP, which is typically more accurately modeled, can be used to estimate BR. A light use efficiency GPP model (i.e., EC-LUE) was applied to estimate global GPP, BR and ER with input data from MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications) and MODIS (Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). The global ER was 103 Pg C yr −1, with the highest respiration rate over tropical forests and the lowest value in dry and high-latitude areas.

  15. SAGE and SAM II measurements of global stratospheric aerosol optical depth and mass loading

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kent, G. S.; Mccormick, M. P.

    1984-01-01

    Several volcanic eruptions between November 1979 and April 1981 have injected material into the stratosphere. The SAGE and SAM II satellite systems have measured, with global coverage, the 1-micron extinction produced by this material, and examples of the data product are shown in the form of global maps of stratospheric optical depth and altitude-latitude plots of zonal mean extinction. These data, and that for the volcanically quiet period in early 1979, have been used to determine the changes in the total stratospheric mass loading. Estimates have also been made of the contribution to the total aerosol mass from each eruption. It has been found that between 1979 and mid-1981, the total stratospheric aerosol mass increased from a background level of approximately 570,000 metric tons to a peak of approximately 1,300,000 metric tons.

  16. Estimates of mass and angular momentum in the oort cloud.

    PubMed

    Marochnik, L S; Mukhin, L M; Sagdeev, R Z

    1988-10-28

    Estimates can be made of unseen mass (in the form of cometary nuclei) at the heliocentric distances between 3 x 10(3) and 2 x 10(4) astronomical units(AU) under the assumptions (i) that the Oort cloud is a rarefied halo surrounding the core (dense, inner cometary cloud) and (ii) that the mass and albedo of comet Halley is typical for comets both in the core and the Oort cloud populations. The mass appears to be approximately 0.03 solar masses, with angular momentum of the order of 10(52) to 10(53) g-cm(2)/s. This mass is of the order of the total mass of the planetary system before the loss of volatiles. This leads to an estimate of a mass M(o) approximately 100 M( plus sign in circle) (where M( plus sign in circle) is the mass of Earth) concentrated in the Oort cloud (r > 2 x 10(4) AU) with an angular momentum that may exceed the present angular momentum of the whole planetary system by one order of magnitude. The present angular momentum of the Oort cloud appears to be of the same order as the total angular momentum of the planetary system before the loss of volatiles.

  17. TRMM: Status of Precipitation Estimates, Science Highlights, and 3-Hour Global, Tropical Precipitation Estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adler, Robert; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has completed more than three years in orbit. A summary of research highlights will be presented focusing on application of TRMM data to topics ranging from climate analysis, through improving forecasts, to microphysical research. Examples and plans for operational use of TRMM data in tropical cyclone and other applications will be given. The status of precipitation estimates from different instruments and algorithms will be described. Monthly surface rainfall estimates over the ocean based on different instruments on TRMM currently differ by 20% in overall mean. In addition, time changes in global ocean rainfall between El Nino and La Nina conditions show a difference in sign between the active and passive microwave products. These differences are not surprising considering the different type of observations available for the first time from TRMM with both the passive and active microwave sensors. Resolving the differences will strengthen the validity and utility of ocean rainfall estimates. The TRMM rainfall estimates are intercompared among themselves and with other estimates, including those of the standard, monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) analysis. The GPCP analysis agrees roughly in magnitude with the passive microwave-based TRMM estimates which is not surprising considering GPCP over-ocean estimates are based on passive microwave observations. A three-year TRMM rainfall climatology is presented, including anomaly fields related to the changing ENSO situation during the mission. Results of using TRMM information to calibrate other passive microwave observations and geosynchronous infrared rainfall estimates and then merging them those estimates into a global, tropical 3-hour time resolution analysis will also be described.

  18. Estimates of the radii, masses, and luminosities of LAMOST stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sichevskij, S. G.

    2017-01-01

    Based on the spectral observations of the LAMOST (DR2) survey, the radii, masses, and luminosities of 700 481 stars were estimated. These stars belong to spectral types A, F, G, and K, and have metallicities between -0.845 and 0.0. To determine the properties of the stars, we used up-to-date models of the stellar interior structure, computed with account for the stellar evolution rate and the initial mass function. The use of evolutionary estimates for two types of stars—with and without rotation—allowed us to account for the uncertainty associated with the lack of data on the rotation velocity of the stars under consideration. The obtained stellar radii, together with the photometric estimates of interstellar extinction and angular diameters can be used to study the dependence of interstellar extinction on distance as well as to estimate the stellar distances.

  19. Estimating maximum global wind power availability and associated climatic consequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, Lee; Gans, Fabian; Kleidon, Axel

    2010-05-01

    Estimating maximum global wind power availability and associated climatic consequences Wind speed reflects the continuous generation of kinetic energy and its dissipation, primarily in the atmospheric boundary layer. When wind turbines extract kinetic wind energy, less kinetic energy remains in the atmosphere in the mean state. While this effect does not play a significant role for a single turbine, it becomes a critical factor for the estimation of large-scale wind power availability. This extraction of kinetic energy by turbines also competes with the natural processes of kinetic energy dissipation, thus setting fundamental limits on extractability that are not considered in previous large-scale studies [1,2,3]. Our simple momentum balance model using ECMWF climate data illustrates a fundamental limit to global wind power extractability and thereby electricity potential (93TW). This is independent of engineering advances in turbine design and wind farm layout. These results are supported by similar results using a global climate model of intermediate complexity. Varying the surface drag coefficient with different simulations allows us to directly relate changes in atmospheric and boundary layer dissipation with resulting climate indices and wind power potential. These new estimates of the maximum power generation by wind turbines are well above the currently installed capacity. Hence, present day installations are unlikely to have a global impact. However, when compared to the current human energy demand of 17TW combined with plans by the US and EU to drastically increase onshore and offshore wind turbine installations [4,5,6], understanding the climatic response and ultimate limitations of wind power as a large-scale renewable energy source is critical. [1] Archer, C., and M.Z. Jacobson, (2005) Evaluation of global wind power, J. Geophys. Res. 110:D12110. [2] Lu, X., M.B. McElroy, and J. Kiviluoma, (2009) Global potential for wind-generated electricity, Proc

  20. Estimation of global snow cover using passive microwave data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Alfred T. C.; Kelly, Richard E.; Foster, James L.; Hall, Dorothy K.

    2003-04-01

    This paper describes an approach to estimate global snow cover using satellite passive microwave data. Snow cover is detected using the high frequency scattering signal from natural microwave radiation, which is observed by passive microwave instruments. Developed for the retrieval of global snow depth and snow water equivalent using Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer EOS (AMSR-E), the algorithm uses passive microwave radiation along with a microwave emission model and a snow grain growth model to estimate snow depth. The microwave emission model is based on the Dense Media Radiative Transfer (DMRT) model that uses the quasi-crystalline approach and sticky particle theory to predict the brightness temperature from a single layered snowpack. The grain growth model is a generic single layer model based on an empirical approach to predict snow grain size evolution with time. Gridding to the 25 km EASE-grid projection, a daily record of Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) snow depth estimates was generated for December 2000 to March 2001. The estimates are tested using ground measurements from two continental-scale river catchments (Nelson River and the Ob River in Russia). This regional-scale testing of the algorithm shows that for passive microwave estimates, the average daily snow depth retrieval standard error between estimated and measured snow depths ranges from 0 cm to 40 cm of point observations. Bias characteristics are different for each basin. A fraction of the error is related to uncertainties about the grain growth initialization states and uncertainties about grain size changes through the winter season that directly affect the parameterization of the snow depth estimation in the DMRT model. Also, the algorithm does not include a correction for forest cover and this effect is clearly observed in the retrieval. Finally, error is also related to scale differences between in situ ground measurements and area-integrated satellite estimates. With AMSR

  1. Approaches and Data Quality for Global Precipitation Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huffman, G. J.; Bolvin, D. T.; Nelkin, E. J.

    2015-12-01

    The space and time scales on which precipitation varies are small compared to the satellite coverage that we have, so it is necessary to merge "all" of the available satellite estimates. Differing retrieval capabilities from the various satellites require inter-calibration for the satellite estimates, while "morphing", i.e., Lagrangian time interpolation, is used to lengthen the period over which time interpolation is valid. Additionally, estimates from geostationary-Earth-orbit infrared data are plentiful, but of sufficiently lower quality compared to low-Earth-orbit passive microwave estimates that they are only used when needed. Finally, monthly surface precipitation gauge data can be used to reduce bias and improve patterns of occurrence for monthly satellite data, and short-interval satellite estimates can be improved with a simple scaling such that they sum to the monthly satellite-gauge combination. The presentation will briefly consider some of the design decisions for practical computation of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission product Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), then examine design choices that maximize value for end users. For example, data fields are provided in the output file that provide insight into the basis for the estimated precipitation, including error, sensor providing the estimate, precipitation phase (solid/liquid), and intermediate precipitation estimates. Another important initiative is successive computations for the same data date/time at longer latencies as additional data are received, which for IMERG is currently done at 6 hours, 16 hours, and 3 months after observation time. Importantly, users require long records for each latency, which runs counter to the data archiving practices at most archive sites. As well, the assignment of Digital Object Identifiers (DOI's) for near-real-time data sets (at 6 and 16 hours for IMERG) is not a settled issue.

  2. Toward Global Soil Moisture Estimation By Satellite Precipitation Radars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seto, S.; Oki, T.; Musiake, K.

    A soil moisture estimation algorithm using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) / Precipitation Radar (PR) is developed to be applied at global scale. In our algorithm, the backscattering coefficients at land surface (denoted as 0) observed by PR is used. As 0 is attenuated by strong rainfall, the data observed during rainfall is not included in our calculation (the percentage if observation is done while it is raining is as small as 5 percent in global average). Soil moisture estimation algorithms by active microwave sensors have been proposed by other researches, though, they are mainly applied to Synthetic Aperture Radars (SAR). TRMM/PR has poor spatial resolution compared with SAR, but the observation frequency (temporal resolution) is as high as passive microwave sensors. On behalf of such high observation frequency, our algorithm can be applied at daily scale which is suitable to analyze soil mois- ture variation. Though TRMM/PR observes by different incident angles from 0 to 18 degree, our algorithm is basically designed for 0(12) (0 observed by 12 degree). Assuming that observed 0 is composed of s (the backscattering at bare soil) and v 0 0 (the backscattering at vegetation layer), it is shown that the sensitivity of 0 to soil moisture is higher by smaller incident angle and the sensitivity of 0 to vegetation cover ratio is lower when observed by 12 degree. If the temporal change of vegetation is not significant, 0 observed by among 3 to 18 degree is well correlated with 0(12). In such case, 0 is converted to 0(12) by linear regression to increase the number of sample per day. The algorithm is firstly applied to Oklahoma in central United States and validated using in-situ soil moisture data. In Oklahoma, the effect of vegetation growth is not significant, then the soil moisture estimates well correspond with in-situ data. Contrastedly, in the Sahel of Africa which shows strong seasonal vegetation cy- cle, 0 obseved by only around 12 degree can be

  3. Estimating the Global Solar Magnetic Field Distribution Using ADAPT

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arge, C. N.; Henney, C. J.; Toussaint, W. A.; Godinez, H. C.; Hickmann, K. S.

    2014-12-01

    Estimation of the global solar photospheric magnetic field distribution is currently difficult, since only approximately half of the solar surface is magnetically observed at any given time. With the solar rotational period relative to Earth at approximately 27 days, these global maps include observed data that are more than 13 days old. Data assimilation between old and new observations can result in spatial polarity discontinuities that result in significant monopole signals. To help minimize these large discontinuities and to specify the global state of the photospheric magnetic flux distribution as accurately as possible, we have developed the ADAPT (Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport) model, which is comprised of a photospheric magnetic flux transport model that makes use of data assimilation methods. The ADAPT transport model evolves the solar magnetic flux for an ensemble of realizations using different model parameter values, e.g., for rotational, meridional, and super-granular diffusive transport processes. In this presentation, the ADAPT model and the data assimilative methods used within it will be reviewed. Coronal, solar wind, F10.7, and EUV model predictions based on ADAPT global photospheric magnetic field maps as input will be discussed.

  4. Convex-hull mass estimates of the dodo (Raphus cucullatus): application of a CT-based mass estimation technique.

    PubMed

    Brassey, Charlotte A; O'Mahoney, Thomas G; Kitchener, Andrew C; Manning, Phillip L; Sellers, William I

    2016-01-01

    The external appearance of the dodo (Raphus cucullatus, Linnaeus, 1758) has been a source of considerable intrigue, as contemporaneous accounts or depictions are rare. The body mass of the dodo has been particularly contentious, with the flightless pigeon alternatively reconstructed as slim or fat depending upon the skeletal metric used as the basis for mass prediction. Resolving this dichotomy and obtaining a reliable estimate for mass is essential before future analyses regarding dodo life history, physiology or biomechanics can be conducted. Previous mass estimates of the dodo have relied upon predictive equations based upon hind limb dimensions of extant pigeons. Yet the hind limb proportions of dodo have been found to differ considerably from those of their modern relatives, particularly with regards to midshaft diameter. Therefore, application of predictive equations to unusually robust fossil skeletal elements may bias mass estimates. We present a whole-body computed tomography (CT) -based mass estimation technique for application to the dodo. We generate 3D volumetric renders of the articulated skeletons of 20 species of extant pigeons, and wrap minimum-fit 'convex hulls' around their bony extremities. Convex hull volume is subsequently regressed against mass to generate predictive models based upon whole skeletons. Our best-performing predictive model is characterized by high correlation coefficients and low mean squared error (a = - 2.31, b = 0.90, r (2) = 0.97, MSE = 0.0046). When applied to articulated composite skeletons of the dodo (National Museums Scotland, NMS.Z.1993.13; Natural History Museum, NHMUK A.9040 and S/1988.50.1), we estimate eviscerated body masses of 8-10.8 kg. When accounting for missing soft tissues, this may equate to live masses of 10.6-14.3 kg. Mass predictions presented here overlap at the lower end of those previously published, and support recent suggestions of a relatively slim dodo. CT-based reconstructions provide a means of

  5. Convex-hull mass estimates of the dodo (Raphus cucullatus): application of a CT-based mass estimation technique

    PubMed Central

    O’Mahoney, Thomas G.; Kitchener, Andrew C.; Manning, Phillip L.; Sellers, William I.

    2016-01-01

    The external appearance of the dodo (Raphus cucullatus, Linnaeus, 1758) has been a source of considerable intrigue, as contemporaneous accounts or depictions are rare. The body mass of the dodo has been particularly contentious, with the flightless pigeon alternatively reconstructed as slim or fat depending upon the skeletal metric used as the basis for mass prediction. Resolving this dichotomy and obtaining a reliable estimate for mass is essential before future analyses regarding dodo life history, physiology or biomechanics can be conducted. Previous mass estimates of the dodo have relied upon predictive equations based upon hind limb dimensions of extant pigeons. Yet the hind limb proportions of dodo have been found to differ considerably from those of their modern relatives, particularly with regards to midshaft diameter. Therefore, application of predictive equations to unusually robust fossil skeletal elements may bias mass estimates. We present a whole-body computed tomography (CT) -based mass estimation technique for application to the dodo. We generate 3D volumetric renders of the articulated skeletons of 20 species of extant pigeons, and wrap minimum-fit ‘convex hulls’ around their bony extremities. Convex hull volume is subsequently regressed against mass to generate predictive models based upon whole skeletons. Our best-performing predictive model is characterized by high correlation coefficients and low mean squared error (a = − 2.31, b = 0.90, r2 = 0.97, MSE = 0.0046). When applied to articulated composite skeletons of the dodo (National Museums Scotland, NMS.Z.1993.13; Natural History Museum, NHMUK A.9040 and S/1988.50.1), we estimate eviscerated body masses of 8–10.8 kg. When accounting for missing soft tissues, this may equate to live masses of 10.6–14.3 kg. Mass predictions presented here overlap at the lower end of those previously published, and support recent suggestions of a relatively slim dodo. CT-based reconstructions provide a

  6. Global positioning system watches for estimating energy expenditure.

    PubMed

    Hongu, Nobuko; Orr, Barron J; Roe, Denise J; Reed, Rebecca G; Going, Scott B

    2013-11-01

    Global positioning system (GPS) watches have been introduced commercially, converting frequent measurements of time, location, speed (pace), and elevation into energy expenditure (EE) estimates. The purpose of this study was to compare EE estimates of 4 different GPS watches (Forerunner, Suunto, Polar, Adeo), at various walking speeds, with EE estimate from a triaxial accelerometer (RT3), which was used as a reference measure in this study. Sixteen healthy young adults completed the study. Participants wore 4 different GPS watches and an RT3 accelerometer and walked at 6-minute intervals on an outdoor track at 3 speeds (3, 5, and 7 km/hr). The statistical significance of differences in EE between the 3 watches was assessed using linear contrasts of the coefficients from the overall model. Reliability across trials for a given device was assessed using intraclass correlation coefficients as estimated in the mixed model. The GPS watches demonstrated lower reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient) across trials when compared with the RT3, particularly at the higher speed, 7 km/hr. Three GPS watches (Forerunner, Polar, and Suunto) significantly and consistently underestimated EE compared with the reference EE given by the RT3 accelerometer (average mean difference: Garmin, -50.5%; Polar, -41.7%; and Suunto, -41.7%; all p < 0.001). Results suggested that caution should be exercised when using commercial GPS watches to estimate EE in athletes during field-based testing and training.

  7. Nitrogen trifluoride global emissions estimated from updated atmospheric measurements

    PubMed Central

    Arnold, Tim; Harth, Christina M.; Mühle, Jens; Manning, Alistair J.; Salameh, Peter K.; Kim, Jooil; Ivy, Diane J.; Steele, L. Paul; Petrenko, Vasilii V.; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.; Baggenstos, Daniel; Weiss, Ray F.

    2013-01-01

    Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) has potential to make a growing contribution to the Earth’s radiative budget; however, our understanding of its atmospheric burden and emission rates has been limited. Based on a revision of our previous calibration and using an expanded set of atmospheric measurements together with an atmospheric model and inverse method, we estimate that the global emissions of NF3 in 2011 were 1.18 ± 0.21 Gg⋅y−1, or ∼20 Tg CO2-eq⋅y−1 (carbon dioxide equivalent emissions based on a 100-y global warming potential of 16,600 for NF3). The 2011 global mean tropospheric dry air mole fraction was 0.86 ± 0.04 parts per trillion, resulting from an average emissions growth rate of 0.09 Gg⋅y−2 over the prior decade. In terms of CO2 equivalents, current NF3 emissions represent between 17% and 36% of the emissions of other long-lived fluorinated compounds from electronics manufacture. We also estimate that the emissions benefit of using NF3 over hexafluoroethane (C2F6) in electronics manufacture is significant—emissions of between 53 and 220 Tg CO2-eq⋅y−1 were avoided during 2011. Despite these savings, total NF3 emissions, currently ∼10% of production, are still significantly larger than expected assuming global implementation of ideal industrial practices. As such, there is a continuing need for improvements in NF3 emissions reduction strategies to keep pace with its increasing use and to slow its rising contribution to anthropogenic climate forcing. PMID:23341630

  8. Body mass estimates of an exceptionally complete Stegosaurus (Ornithischia: Thyreophora): comparing volumetric and linear bivariate mass estimation methods.

    PubMed

    Brassey, Charlotte A; Maidment, Susannah C R; Barrett, Paul M

    2015-03-01

    Body mass is a key biological variable, but difficult to assess from fossils. Various techniques exist for estimating body mass from skeletal parameters, but few studies have compared outputs from different methods. Here, we apply several mass estimation methods to an exceptionally complete skeleton of the dinosaur Stegosaurus. Applying a volumetric convex-hulling technique to a digital model of Stegosaurus, we estimate a mass of 1560 kg (95% prediction interval 1082-2256 kg) for this individual. By contrast, bivariate equations based on limb dimensions predict values between 2355 and 3751 kg and require implausible amounts of soft tissue and/or high body densities. When corrected for ontogenetic scaling, however, volumetric and linear equations are brought into close agreement. Our results raise concerns regarding the application of predictive equations to extinct taxa with no living analogues in terms of overall morphology and highlight the sensitivity of bivariate predictive equations to the ontogenetic status of the specimen. We emphasize the significance of rare, complete fossil skeletons in validating widely applied mass estimation equations based on incomplete skeletal material and stress the importance of accurately determining specimen age prior to further analyses.

  9. Body mass estimates of an exceptionally complete Stegosaurus (Ornithischia: Thyreophora): comparing volumetric and linear bivariate mass estimation methods

    PubMed Central

    Brassey, Charlotte A.; Maidment, Susannah C. R.; Barrett, Paul M.

    2015-01-01

    Body mass is a key biological variable, but difficult to assess from fossils. Various techniques exist for estimating body mass from skeletal parameters, but few studies have compared outputs from different methods. Here, we apply several mass estimation methods to an exceptionally complete skeleton of the dinosaur Stegosaurus. Applying a volumetric convex-hulling technique to a digital model of Stegosaurus, we estimate a mass of 1560 kg (95% prediction interval 1082–2256 kg) for this individual. By contrast, bivariate equations based on limb dimensions predict values between 2355 and 3751 kg and require implausible amounts of soft tissue and/or high body densities. When corrected for ontogenetic scaling, however, volumetric and linear equations are brought into close agreement. Our results raise concerns regarding the application of predictive equations to extinct taxa with no living analogues in terms of overall morphology and highlight the sensitivity of bivariate predictive equations to the ontogenetic status of the specimen. We emphasize the significance of rare, complete fossil skeletons in validating widely applied mass estimation equations based on incomplete skeletal material and stress the importance of accurately determining specimen age prior to further analyses. PMID:25740841

  10. How well can we really estimate the stellar masses of galaxies from broad-band photometry?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitchell, Peter D.; Lacey, Cedric G.; Baugh, Carlton M.; Cole, Shaun

    2013-10-01

    The estimated stellar masses of galaxies are widely used to characterize how the galaxy population evolves over cosmic time. If stellar masses can be estimated in a robust manner, free from any bias, global diagnostics such as the stellar mass function can be used to constrain the physics of galaxy formation. We explore how galaxy stellar masses, estimated by fitting broad-band spectral energy distributions (SEDs) with stellar population models, can be biased as a result of commonly adopted assumptions for the star formation and chemical enrichment histories, recycled fractions and dust attenuation curves of galaxies. We apply the observational technique of broad-band SED fitting to model galaxy SEDs calculated by the theoretical galaxy formation model GALFORM, isolating the effect of each of these assumptions. We find that, averaged over the entire galaxy population, the common assumption of exponentially declining star formation histories does not, by itself, adversely affect stellar mass estimation. However, we also show that this result does not hold when considering galaxies that have undergone a recent burst of star formation. We show that fixing the metallicity in SED fitting or using sparsely sampled metallicity grids can introduce mass-dependent systematics into stellar mass estimates. We find that the common assumption of a star-dust geometry corresponding to a uniform foreground dust screen can cause the stellar masses of dusty model galaxies to be significantly underestimated. Finally, we show that stellar mass functions recovered by applying SED fitting to model galaxies at high redshift can differ significantly in both shape and normalization from the intrinsic mass functions predicted by a given model. In particular, the effects of dust can reduce the normalization at the high-mass end by up to 0.6 dex in some cases. Given these differences, our methodology of using stellar masses estimated from model galaxy SEDs offers a new, self-consistent way to

  11. Minimum convex hull mass estimations of complete mounted skeletons.

    PubMed

    Sellers, W I; Hepworth-Bell, J; Falkingham, P L; Bates, K T; Brassey, C A; Egerton, V M; Manning, P L

    2012-10-23

    Body mass is a critical parameter used to constrain biomechanical and physiological traits of organisms. Volumetric methods are becoming more common as techniques for estimating the body masses of fossil vertebrates. However, they are often accused of excessive subjective input when estimating the thickness of missing soft tissue. Here, we demonstrate an alternative approach where a minimum convex hull is derived mathematically from the point cloud generated by laser-scanning mounted skeletons. This has the advantage of requiring minimal user intervention and is thus more objective and far quicker. We test this method on 14 relatively large-bodied mammalian skeletons and demonstrate that it consistently underestimates body mass by 21 per cent with minimal scatter around the regression line. We therefore suggest that it is a robust method of estimating body mass where a mounted skeletal reconstruction is available and demonstrate its usage to predict the body mass of one of the largest, relatively complete sauropod dinosaurs: Giraffatitan brancai (previously Brachiosaurus) as 23200 kg.

  12. Minimum convex hull mass estimations of complete mounted skeletons

    PubMed Central

    Sellers, W. I.; Hepworth-Bell, J.; Falkingham, P. L.; Bates, K. T.; Brassey, C. A.; Egerton, V. M.; Manning, P. L.

    2012-01-01

    Body mass is a critical parameter used to constrain biomechanical and physiological traits of organisms. Volumetric methods are becoming more common as techniques for estimating the body masses of fossil vertebrates. However, they are often accused of excessive subjective input when estimating the thickness of missing soft tissue. Here, we demonstrate an alternative approach where a minimum convex hull is derived mathematically from the point cloud generated by laser-scanning mounted skeletons. This has the advantage of requiring minimal user intervention and is thus more objective and far quicker. We test this method on 14 relatively large-bodied mammalian skeletons and demonstrate that it consistently underestimates body mass by 21 per cent with minimal scatter around the regression line. We therefore suggest that it is a robust method of estimating body mass where a mounted skeletal reconstruction is available and demonstrate its usage to predict the body mass of one of the largest, relatively complete sauropod dinosaurs: Giraffatitan brancai (previously Brachiosaurus) as 23200 kg. PMID:22675141

  13. Observationally-constrained estimates of global small-mode AOD

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, K.; Chung, C. E.

    2012-12-01

    Small aerosols are mostly anthropogenic, and an area average of the small-mode aerosol optical depth (sAOD) is a powerful and independent measure of anthropogenic aerosol emission. We estimate AOD and sAOD globally on a monthly time scale from 2001 to 2010 by integrating satellite-based (MODIS and MISR) and ground-based (AERONET) observations. For sAOD, three integration methods were developed to maximize the influence of AERONET data and ensure consistency between MODIS, MISR and AERONET sAOD data. We evaluated each method by applying the technique with fewer AERONET data and comparing its output with the unused AERONET data. The best performing method gives an overall error of 13 ± 2%, compared with an overall error of 62% in simply using MISR sAOD, and this method takes advantage of an empirical relationship between the Ångström exponent (AE) and fine mode fraction (FMF). This relationship is obtained by analyzing AERONET data. Using our integrated data, we find that the global 2001-2010 average of 500 nm AOD and sAOD is 0.17 and 0.094, respectively. sAOD over eastern China is several times as large as the global average. The linear trend from 2001 to 2010 is found to be slightly negative in global AOD or global sAOD. In India and eastern China combined, however, sAOD increased by more than 4% against a backdrop of decreasing AOD and large-mode AOD. On the contrary to India and China, the west (Western Europe and US/Canada combined) is found to have a sAOD reduction of -20%. These results quantify the overall anthropogenic aerosol emission reduction in the west, and rapidly deteriorating conditions in Asia. Moreover, our results in the west are consistent with the so-called surface brightening phenomenon in the recent decades.

  14. Estimates of isospin breaking contributions to baryon masses

    SciTech Connect

    Ha, Phuoc

    2007-10-01

    We estimate the isospin breaking contributions to the baryon masses which we analyzed recently using a loop expansion in the heavy-baryon chiral effective field theory. To one loop, the isospin breaking corrections come from the effects of the d, u quark mass difference, the Coulomb and magnetic moment interactions, and effective point interactions attributable to color-magnetic effects. The addition of the first meson loop corrections introduces new structure. We estimate the resulting low-energy, long-range contributions to the mass splittings by regularizing the loop integrals using connections to dynamical models for finite-size baryons. We find that the resulting contributions to the isospin breaking corrections are of the right general size, have the correct sign pattern, and agree with the experimental values within the margin of error.

  15. Estimating global chlorophyll changes over the past century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boyce, Daniel G.; Dowd, Michael; Lewis, Marlon R.; Worm, Boris

    2014-03-01

    Marine phytoplankton account for approximately half of the production of organic matter on earth, support virtually all marine ecosystems, constrain fisheries yields, and influence climate and weather. Despite this importance, long-term trajectories of phytoplankton abundance or biomass are difficult to estimate, and the extent of changes is unresolved. Here, we use a new, publicly-available database of historical shipboard oceanographic measurements to estimate long-term changes in chlorophyll concentration (Chl; a widely used proxy for phytoplankton biomass) from 1890 to 2010. This work builds upon an earlier analysis (Boyce et al., 2010) by taking published criticisms into account, and by using recalibrated data, and novel analysis methods. Rates of long-term chlorophyll change were estimated using generalized additive models within a multi-model inference framework, and post hoc sensitivity analyses were undertaken to test the robustness of results. Our analysis revealed statistically significant Chl declines over 62% of the global ocean surface area where data were present, and in 8 of 11 large ocean regions. While Chl increases have occurred in many locations, weighted syntheses of local- and regional-scale estimates confirmed that average chlorophyll concentrations have declined across the majority of the global ocean area over the past century. Sensitivity analyses indicate that these changes do not arise from any bias between data types, nor do they depend upon the method of spatial or temporal aggregation, nor the use of a particular statistical model. The wider consequences of this long-term decline of marine phytoplankton are presently unresolved, but will need to be considered in future studies of marine ecosystem structure, geochemical cycling, and fishery yields.

  16. Estimating the Global Burden of Endemic Canine Rabies

    PubMed Central

    Hampson, Katie; Coudeville, Laurent; Lembo, Tiziana; Sambo, Maganga; Kieffer, Alexia; Attlan, Michaël; Barrat, Jacques; Blanton, Jesse D.; Briggs, Deborah J.; Cleaveland, Sarah; Costa, Peter; Freuling, Conrad M.; Hiby, Elly; Knopf, Lea; Leanes, Fernando; Meslin, François-Xavier; Metlin, Artem; Miranda, Mary Elizabeth; Müller, Thomas; Nel, Louis H.; Recuenco, Sergio; Rupprecht, Charles E.; Schumacher, Carolin; Taylor, Louise; Vigilato, Marco Antonio Natal; Zinsstag, Jakob; Dushoff, Jonathan

    2015-01-01

    Background Rabies is a notoriously underreported and neglected disease of low-income countries. This study aims to estimate the public health and economic burden of rabies circulating in domestic dog populations, globally and on a country-by-country basis, allowing an objective assessment of how much this preventable disease costs endemic countries. Methodology/Principal Findings We established relationships between rabies mortality and rabies prevention and control measures, which we incorporated into a model framework. We used data derived from extensive literature searches and questionnaires on disease incidence, control interventions and preventative measures within this framework to estimate the disease burden. The burden of rabies impacts on public health sector budgets, local communities and livestock economies, with the highest risk of rabies in the poorest regions of the world. This study estimates that globally canine rabies causes approximately 59,000 (95% Confidence Intervals: 25-159,000) human deaths, over 3.7 million (95% CIs: 1.6-10.4 million) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and 8.6 billion USD (95% CIs: 2.9-21.5 billion) economic losses annually. The largest component of the economic burden is due to premature death (55%), followed by direct costs of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP, 20%) and lost income whilst seeking PEP (15.5%), with only limited costs to the veterinary sector due to dog vaccination (1.5%), and additional costs to communities from livestock losses (6%). Conclusions/Significance This study demonstrates that investment in dog vaccination, the single most effective way of reducing the disease burden, has been inadequate and that the availability and affordability of PEP needs improving. Collaborative investments by medical and veterinary sectors could dramatically reduce the current large, and unnecessary, burden of rabies on affected communities. Improved surveillance is needed to reduce uncertainty in burden estimates and to

  17. Global Water Resources Under Future Changes: Toward an Improved Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Islam, M.; Agata, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2005-05-01

    Global water resources availability in the 21st century is going to be an important concern. Despite its international recognition, however, until now there are very limited global estimates of water resources, which considered the geographical linkage between water supply and demand, defined by runoff and its passage through river network. The available studies are again insufficient due to reasons like different approaches in defining water scarcity, simply based on annual average figures without considering the inter-annual or seasonal variability, absence of the inclusion of virtual water trading, etc. In this study, global water resources under future climate change associated with several socio-economic factors were estimated varying over both temporal and spatial scale. Global runoff data was derived from several land surface models under the GSWP2 (Global Soil Wetness Project) project, which was further processed through TRIP (Total Runoff Integrated Pathways) river routing model to produce a 0.5x0.5 degree grid based figure. Water abstraction was estimated for the same spatial resolution for three sectors as domestic, industrial and agriculture. GCM outputs from CCSR and MRI were collected to predict the runoff changes. Socio-economic factors like population and GDP growth, affected mostly the demand part. Instead of simply looking at annual figures, monthly figures for both supply and demand was considered. For an average year, such a seasonal variability can affect the crop yield significantly. In other case, inter-annual variability of runoff can cause for an absolute drought condition. To account for vulnerabilities of a region to future changes, both inter-annual and seasonal effects were thus considered. At present, the study assumed the future agricultural water uses to be unchanged under climatic changes. In this connection, EPIC model is underway to use for estimating future agricultural water demand under climatic changes on a monthly basis. From

  18. Scaling methane emissions in ruminants and global estimates in wild populations.

    PubMed

    Pérez-Barbería, F J

    2017-02-01

    Methane (CH4) emissions by human activities have more than doubled since the 1700s, and they contribute to global warming. One of the sources of CH4 is produced by incomplete oxidation of feed in the ruminant's gut. Domestic ruminants produce most of the emissions from animal sources, but emissions by wild ruminants have been poorly estimated. This study (i) scales CH4 against body mass in 503 experiments in ruminants fed herbage, and assesses the effect of different sources of variation, using published and new data; and (ii) it uses these models to produce global estimates of CH4 emissions from wild ruminants. The incorporation of phylogeny, diet and technique of measuring in to a model that scales log10 CH4gd(-1) against log10 body mass (kg), reduces the slope, from 1.075 to 0.868, making it not significantly steeper than the scaling coefficient of metabolic requirements to body mass. Scaling models that include dry matter intake (DMI) and dietary fiber indicate that although both increase CH4, dietary fiber depresses CH4 as the levels of DMI increases. Cattle produces more CH4 per unit of DMI than red deer, sheep or goat, and there are no significant differences between CH4 produced by red deer and sheep. The average estimates of global emissions from wild ruminants calculated using different models are smaller (1.094-2.687Tgy(-1)) than those presented in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (15Tgyr(-1)). Potential causes to explain such discrepancy are the uncertainty on the world's wild ruminant population size, and the use of methane output from cattle, a high methane producer, as representative methane output of wild ruminants. The main limitation researchers' face in calculating accurate global CH4 emissions from wild ungulates is a lack of reliable information on their population sizes.

  19. Estimating Mass of Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerators Using Dimensionless Parameters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Samareh, Jamshid A.

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes a technique for estimating mass for inflatable aerodynamic decelerators. The technique uses dimensional analysis to identify a set of dimensionless parameters for inflation pressure, mass of inflation gas, and mass of flexible material. The dimensionless parameters enable scaling of an inflatable concept with geometry parameters (e.g., diameter), environmental conditions (e.g., dynamic pressure), inflation gas properties (e.g., molecular mass), and mass growth allowance. This technique is applicable for attached (e.g., tension cone, hypercone, and stacked toroid) and trailing inflatable aerodynamic decelerators. The technique uses simple engineering approximations that were developed by NASA in the 1960s and 1970s, as well as some recent important developments. The NASA Mars Entry and Descent Landing System Analysis (EDL-SA) project used this technique to estimate the masses of the inflatable concepts that were used in the analysis. The EDL-SA results compared well with two independent sets of high-fidelity finite element analyses.

  20. Mass estimation in the breakups of Soviet satellites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Badhwar, Gautam D.; Anz-Meador, Phillip D.

    1990-01-01

    An attempt is made to estimate the mass of the parent satellite from the mass of the debris remaining from its breakup using a technique based on the decay rate and radar cross-section time history. The decay of perigee and apogee with time of an object in orbit provides the area-to-mass ratio and the radar cross-section provides a measure of the effective area of the object, while combining the two gives the mass of the object. The technique has been successfully applied to 12 U.S. breakups and one Arianespace breakup. Calculations exhibiting good agreement with reference mass are also discussed for Soviet intact C-class boosters, intact ASAT target satellites, and intact navigational satellites. It is found that the calculated mass of the ASAT interceptor spacecraft is about one-half of the expected mass, but it is pointed out that this may be due to fuel carried on board. For ASAT target breakups the calculated mass is 20-30 times too low; no clear explanation can yet be found for this phenomenon.

  1. Global-mean marine δ13C and its uncertainty in a glacial state estimate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gebbie, Geoffrey; Peterson, Carlye D.; Lisiecki, Lorraine E.; Spero, Howard J.

    2015-10-01

    A paleo-data compilation with 492 δ13C and δ18O observations provides the opportunity to better sample the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and infer its global properties, such as the mean δ13C of dissolved inorganic carbon. Here, the paleo-compilation is used to reconstruct a steady-state water-mass distribution for the LGM, that in turn is used to map the data onto a 3D global grid. A global-mean marine δ13C value and a self-consistent uncertainty estimate are derived using the framework of state estimation (i.e., combining a numerical model and observations). The LGM global-mean δ13C is estimated to be 0.14‰ ± 0.20‰ at the two standard error level, giving a glacial-to-modern change of 0.32‰ ± 0.20‰. The magnitude of the error bar is attributed to the uncertain glacial ocean circulation and the lack of observational constraints in the Pacific, Indian, and Southern Oceans. To halve the error bar, roughly four times more observations are needed, although strategic sampling may reduce this number. If dynamical constraints can be used to better characterize the LGM circulation, the error bar can also be reduced to 0.05 to 0.1‰, emphasizing that knowledge of the circulation is vital to accurately map δ13C in three dimensions.

  2. Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hughes, Terry P.; Kerry, James T.; Álvarez-Noriega, Mariana; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G.; Anderson, Kristen D.; Baird, Andrew H.; Babcock, Russell C.; Beger, Maria; Bellwood, David R.; Berkelmans, Ray; Bridge, Tom C.; Butler, Ian R.; Byrne, Maria; Cantin, Neal E.; Comeau, Steeve; Connolly, Sean R.; Cumming, Graeme S.; Dalton, Steven J.; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Eakin, C. Mark; Figueira, Will F.; Gilmour, James P.; Harrison, Hugo B.; Heron, Scott F.; Hoey, Andrew S.; Hobbs, Jean-Paul A.; Hoogenboom, Mia O.; Kennedy, Emma V.; Kuo, Chao-Yang; Lough, Janice M.; Lowe, Ryan J.; Liu, Gang; McCulloch, Malcolm T.; Malcolm, Hamish A.; McWilliam, Michael J.; Pandolfi, John M.; Pears, Rachel J.; Pratchett, Morgan S.; Schoepf, Verena; Simpson, Tristan; Skirving, William J.; Sommer, Brigitte; Torda, Gergely; Wachenfeld, David R.; Willis, Bette L.; Wilson, Shaun K.

    2017-03-01

    During 2015–2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs.

  3. Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals.

    PubMed

    Hughes, Terry P; Kerry, James T; Álvarez-Noriega, Mariana; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G; Anderson, Kristen D; Baird, Andrew H; Babcock, Russell C; Beger, Maria; Bellwood, David R; Berkelmans, Ray; Bridge, Tom C; Butler, Ian R; Byrne, Maria; Cantin, Neal E; Comeau, Steeve; Connolly, Sean R; Cumming, Graeme S; Dalton, Steven J; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Eakin, C Mark; Figueira, Will F; Gilmour, James P; Harrison, Hugo B; Heron, Scott F; Hoey, Andrew S; Hobbs, Jean-Paul A; Hoogenboom, Mia O; Kennedy, Emma V; Kuo, Chao-Yang; Lough, Janice M; Lowe, Ryan J; Liu, Gang; McCulloch, Malcolm T; Malcolm, Hamish A; McWilliam, Michael J; Pandolfi, John M; Pears, Rachel J; Pratchett, Morgan S; Schoepf, Verena; Simpson, Tristan; Skirving, William J; Sommer, Brigitte; Torda, Gergely; Wachenfeld, David R; Willis, Bette L; Wilson, Shaun K

    2017-03-15

    During 2015-2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs.

  4. An empirical model for global earthquake fatality estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David

    2010-01-01

    We analyzed mortality rates of earthquakes worldwide and developed a country/region-specific empirical model for earthquake fatality estimation within the U. S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. The earthquake fatality rate is defined as total killed divided by total population exposed at specific shaking intensity level. The total fatalities for a given earthquake are estimated by multiplying the number of people exposed at each shaking intensity level by the fatality rates for that level and then summing them at all relevant shaking intensities. The fatality rate is expressed in terms of a two-parameter lognormal cumulative distribution function of shaking intensity. The parameters are obtained for each country or a region by minimizing the residual error in hindcasting the total shaking-related deaths from earthquakes recorded between 1973 and 2007. A new global regionalization scheme is used to combine the fatality data across different countries with similar vulnerability traits. [DOI: 10.1193/1.3480331

  5. Global estimation of above-cloud aerosols using spaceborne LIDAR

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chand, D.; Wood, R.; Anderson, T. L.; Satheesh, S. K.; Leahy, L.

    2008-12-01

    Estimates of global mean direct climate forcing by absorbing aerosols located above boundary layer clouds are large, uncertain, and almost entirely unconstrained by observations. Spaceborne lidar offers a new opportunity of estimating the aerosols at global scale. Here we use two recently available techniques quantifying the above-cloud aerosols using liquid water clouds as lidar targets from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) [Chand et al., 2008]. Both methods can quantify aerosols above clouds and are based on their self-calibrating techniques. We used one year of global data between 70N-70S to show that day time calibration constants are different than night time calibrations constants. A clear latitudinal dependence is observed in the calibrations constants in CALIPSO observations. Using these 'self-calibration' constants, aerosol optical depth (AOD) and angstrom exponent (AE) of 'above- cloud' aerosols are quantified. Biomass burning is a major source of fine mode aerosols in different regions of world. For example, it is observed that June is the onset of the biomass burning fires in Southern Africa, peaking in August and September and then slowly decreasing until November, with a corresponding signature in aerosol optical depth. Layers with aerosol optical depth greater than 0.3 are commonly observed up to several thousand kilometers away from Africa over the Atlantic Ocean. The 'above-cloud' AOD as high as 1.5 is observed in the peak months. Despite of large variations is AOD, mean AE of these aerosols is about 1.6, without any systematic variability away from the source region. The results estimating the aerosols above clouds, including other regions at global scale, will be presented in the AGU meeting. Chand, D., T. L. Anderson, R. Wood, R. J. Charlson, Y. Hu, Z. Liu, and M. Vaughan (2008), Quantifying above-cloud aerosol using spaceborne lidar for improved understanding of cloudy-sky direct climate forcing, J

  6. A Global Estimate of Seafood Consumption by Coastal Indigenous Peoples

    PubMed Central

    Pauly, Daniel; Weatherdon, Lauren V.

    2016-01-01

    Coastal Indigenous peoples rely on ocean resources and are highly vulnerable to ecosystem and economic change. Their challenges have been observed and recognized at local and regional scales, yet there are no global-scale analyses to inform international policies. We compile available data for over 1,900 coastal Indigenous communities around the world representing 27 million people across 87 countries. Based on available data at local and regional levels, we estimate a total global yearly seafood consumption of 2.1 million (1.5 million–2.8 million) metric tonnes by coastal Indigenous peoples, equal to around 2% of global yearly commercial fisheries catch. Results reflect the crucial role of seafood for these communities; on average, consumption per capita is 15 times higher than non-Indigenous country populations. These findings contribute to an urgently needed sense of scale to coastal Indigenous issues, and will hopefully prompt increased recognition and directed research regarding the marine knowledge and resource needs of Indigenous peoples. Marine resources are crucial to the continued existence of coastal Indigenous peoples, and their needs must be explicitly incorporated into management policies. PMID:27918581

  7. Global Estimates of PBL Depth from Space-Borne LIDAR

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGrath-Spangler, E. L.; Denning, S.; Molod, A.; Ott, L. E.

    2012-12-01

    The planetary boundary layer (PBL) is responsible for communicating the exchange of energy, moisture, momentum, pollutants, and aerosols between the surface and the free atmosphere and is therefore crucial to many studies of the atmosphere. Unfortunately, there have historically been few observations of this important layer due to the complexity involved in its measurement. However, with the advent of more advanced satellites, global measurements of the PBL are now becoming possible. The PBL is often characterized by a high concentration of aerosols within the layer and low level clouds capping it and these are observable from space. The Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) satellite was launched in 2006 with the intention of observing aerosols and clouds and was the first space-based LIDAR optimized for this purpose. CALIPSO observations are therefore well suited to observing the depth of the PBL. Since it was launched, CALIPSO has been making nearly continuous measurements enabling a global picture of PBL depth. We plan to present a global PBL depth product and how it evolves throughout the year. The product is able to identify deeper PBL depths in the summer hemisphere over land and deeper depths along the northern hemisphere oceanic storm tracks in winter associated with cold air traveling over warm water. Large seasonal cycles are also evident in the subtropical desert locations among other features. In addition, comparisons will be made between several estimates of PBL depth based on turbulent intensity, meteorology profiles, and aerosol profiles from the GEOS5 model.

  8. Global Estimates of PBL Depth from Space-Borne LIDAR

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McGrath-Spangler, Erica lynn; Denning, S.; Molod, A.; Ott, L.

    2012-01-01

    The planetary boundary layer (PBL) is responsible for communicating the exchange of energy, moisture, momentum, pollutants, and aerosols between the surface and the free atmosphere and is therefore crucial to many studies of the atmosphere. Unfortunately, there have historically been few observations of this important layer due to the complexity involved in its measurement. However, with the advent of more advanced satellites, global measurements of the PBL are now becoming possible. The PBL is often characterized by a high concentration of aerosols within the layer and low level clouds capping it and these are observable from space. The Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) satellite was launched in 2006 with the intention of observing aerosols and clouds and was the first space-based LIDAR optimized for this purpose. CALIPSO observations are therefore well suited to observing the depth of the PBL. Since it was launched, CALIPSO has been making nearly continuous measurements enabling a global picture of PBL depth. We plan to present a global PBL depth product and how it evolves throughout the year. The product is able to identify deeper PBL depths in the summer hemisphere over land and deeper depths along the northern hemisphere oceanic storm tracks in winter associated with cold air traveling over warm water. Large seasonal cycles are also evident in the subtropical desert locations among other features. In addition, comparisons will be made between several estimates of PBL depth based on turbulent intensity, meteorology profiles, and aerosol profiles from the GEOS5 model.

  9. Mass support for global climate agreements depends on institutional design

    PubMed Central

    Bechtel, Michael M.; Scheve, Kenneth F.

    2013-01-01

    Effective climate mitigation requires international cooperation, and these global efforts need broad public support to be sustainable over the long run. We provide estimates of public support for different types of climate agreements in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Using data from a large-scale experimental survey, we explore how three key dimensions of global climate cooperation—costs and distribution, participation, and enforcement—affect individuals’ willingness to support these international efforts. We find that design features have significant effects on public support. Specifically, our results indicate that support is higher for global climate agreements that involve lower costs, distribute costs according to prominent fairness principles, encompass more countries, and include a small sanction if a country fails to meet its emissions reduction targets. In contrast to well-documented baseline differences in public support for climate mitigation efforts, opinion responds similarly to changes in climate policy design in all four countries. We also find that the effects of institutional design features can bring about decisive changes in the level of public support for a global climate agreement. Moreover, the results appear consistent with the view that the sensitivity of public support to design features reflects underlying norms of reciprocity and individuals’ beliefs about the potential effectiveness of specific agreements. PMID:23886666

  10. Mass support for global climate agreements depends on institutional design.

    PubMed

    Bechtel, Michael M; Scheve, Kenneth F

    2013-08-20

    Effective climate mitigation requires international cooperation, and these global efforts need broad public support to be sustainable over the long run. We provide estimates of public support for different types of climate agreements in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Using data from a large-scale experimental survey, we explore how three key dimensions of global climate cooperation--costs and distribution, participation, and enforcement--affect individuals' willingness to support these international efforts. We find that design features have significant effects on public support. Specifically, our results indicate that support is higher for global climate agreements that involve lower costs, distribute costs according to prominent fairness principles, encompass more countries, and include a small sanction if a country fails to meet its emissions reduction targets. In contrast to well-documented baseline differences in public support for climate mitigation efforts, opinion responds similarly to changes in climate policy design in all four countries. We also find that the effects of institutional design features can bring about decisive changes in the level of public support for a global climate agreement. Moreover, the results appear consistent with the view that the sensitivity of public support to design features reflects underlying norms of reciprocity and individuals' beliefs about the potential effectiveness of specific agreements.

  11. Global and regional emissions estimates for N2O

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saikawa, E.; Prinn, R. G.; Dlugokencky, E.; Ishijima, K.; Dutton, G. S.; Hall, B. D.; Langenfelds, R.; Tohjima, Y.; Machida, T.; Manizza, M.; Rigby, M.; O'Doherty, S.; Patra, P. K.; Harth, C. M.; Weiss, R. F.; Krummel, P. B.; van der Schoot, M.; Fraser, P. J.; Steele, L. P.; Aoki, S.; Nakazawa, T.; Elkins, J. W.

    2014-05-01

    We present a comprehensive estimate of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions using observations and models from 1995 to 2008. High-frequency records of tropospheric N2O are available from measurements at Cape Grim, Tasmania; Cape Matatula, American Samoa; Ragged Point, Barbados; Mace Head, Ireland; and at Trinidad Head, California using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) instrumentation and calibrations. The Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) has also collected discrete air samples in flasks and in situ measurements from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of species including N2O. In addition to these major networks, we include in situ and aircraft measurements from the National Institute of Environmental Studies (NIES) and flask measurements from the Tohoku University and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) networks. All measurements show increasing atmospheric mole fractions of N2O, with a varying growth rate of 0.1-0.7% per year, resulting in a 7.4% increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction between 1979 and 2011. Using existing emission inventories as well as bottom-up process modeling results, we first create globally gridded a priori N2O emissions over the 37 years since 1975. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4), and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions for five source sectors from 13 regions in the world. This is the first time that all of these measurements from multiple networks have been combined to determine emissions. Our inversion indicates that global and regional N2O emissions have an increasing trend between 1995 and 2008. Despite large uncertainties, a significant increase is seen from the Asian agricultural sector in recent years, most likely

  12. Global and regional emissions estimates for N2O

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saikawa, E.; Prinn, R. G.; Dlugokencky, E.; Ishijima, K.; Dutton, G. S.; Hall, B. D.; Langenfelds, R.; Tohjima, Y.; Machida, T.; Manizza, M.; Rigby, M.; O'Doherty, S.; Patra, P. K.; Harth, C. M.; Weiss, R. F.; Krummel, P. B.; van der Schoot, M.; Fraser, P. B.; Steele, L. P.; Aoki, S.; Nakazawa, T.; Elkins, J. W.

    2013-07-01

    We present a comprehensive estimate of nitrous oxide ( N2O) emissions using observations and models from 1995 to 2008. High-frequency records of tropospheric N2O are available from measurements at Cape Grim, Tasmania; Cape Matatula, American Samoa; Ragged Point, Barbados; Mace Head, Ireland; and at Trinidad Head, California using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) instrumentation and calibrations. The Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) has also discrete air samples collected in flasks and in situ measurements from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of species including N2O. In addition to these major networks, we include in situ and aircraft measurements from the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) and flask measurements from the Tohoku University and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) networks. All measurements show increasing atmospheric mole fractions of N2O, with a varying growth rate of 0.1-0.7 % yr-1, resulting in a 7.4% increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction between 1979 and 2011. Using existing emission inventories as well as bottom-up process modeling results, we first create globally-gridded a priori N2O emissions over the 37 yr since 1975. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4), and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions for five source sectors from 13 regions in the world. This is the first time that all of these measurements from multiple networks have been combined to determine emissions. Our inversion indicates that global and regional N2O emissions have an increasing trend between 1995 and 2008. Despite large uncertainties, a significant increase is seen from the Asian agricultural sector in the recent years, most likely

  13. Global and regional emissions estimates for N2O

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saikawa, E.; Prinn, R. G.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Ishijima, K.; Dutton, G. S.; Hall, B. D.; Langenfelds, R.; Tohjima, Y.; Machida, T.; Manizza, M.; Rigby, M. L.; Odoherty, S. J.; Patra, P. K.; Harth, C.; Weiss, R. F.; Krummel, P. B.; van der Schoot, M.; Fraser, P.; Steele, P.; Aoki, S.; Nakazawa, T.; Elkins, J. W.

    2013-12-01

    We present a comprehensive estimate of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions using observations and models from 1995 to 2008. High-frequency records of tropospheric N2O are available from measurements at Cape Grim, Tasmania; Cape Matatula, American Samoa; Ragged Point, Barbados; Mace Head, Ireland; and at Trinidad Head, California using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) instrumentation and calibrations. The Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) has also discrete air samples collected in flasks and in situ measurements from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of species including N2O. In addition to these major networks, we include in situ and aircraft measurements from the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) and flask measurements from the Tohoku University and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) networks. All measurements show increasing atmospheric mole fractions of N2O, with a varying growth rate of 0.1-0.7%yr-1, resulting in a 7.4% increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction between 1979 and 2011. Using existing emission inventories as well as bottom-up process modeling results, we first create globally-gridded a priori N2O emissions over the 37 yr since 1975. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4), and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions for five source sectors from 13 regions in the world. This is the first time that all of these measurements from multiple networks have been combined to determine emissions. Our inversion indicates that global and regional N2O emissions have an increasing trend between 1995 and 2008. Despite large uncertainties, a significant increase is seen from the Asian agricultural sector in the recent years, most likely due

  14. Global coupled sea ice-ocean state estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fenty, Ian; Menemenlis, Dimitris; Zhang, Hong

    2015-09-01

    We study the impact of synthesizing ocean and sea ice concentration data with a global, eddying coupled sea ice-ocean configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model with the goal of reproducing the 2004 three-dimensional time-evolving ice-ocean state. This work builds on the state estimation framework developed in the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean consortium by seeking a reconstruction of the global sea ice-ocean system that is simultaneously consistent with (1) a suite of in situ and remotely-sensed ocean and ice data and (2) the physics encoded in the numerical model. This dual consistency is successfully achieved here by adjusting only the model's initial hydrographic state and its atmospheric boundary conditions such that misfits between the model and data are minimized in a least-squares sense. We show that synthesizing both ocean and sea ice concentration data is required for the model to adequately reproduce the observed details of the sea ice annual cycle in both hemispheres. Surprisingly, only modest adjustments to our first-guess atmospheric state and ocean initial conditions are necessary to achieve model-data consistency, suggesting that atmospheric reanalysis products remain a leading source of errors for sea ice-ocean model hindcasts and reanalyses. The synthesis of sea ice data is found to ameliorate misfits in the high latitude ocean, especially with respect to upper ocean stratification, temperature, and salinity. Constraining the model to sea ice concentration modestly reduces ICESat-derived Arctic ice thickness errors by improving the temporal and spatial evolution of seasonal ice. Further increases in the accuracy of global sea ice thickness in the model likely require the direct synthesis of sea ice thickness data.

  15. Quality control and estimation of global solar radiation in China

    SciTech Connect

    Tang, Wenjun; He, Jie; Yang, Kun; Qin, Jun

    2010-03-15

    Measurements of surface radiation in China are too sparse to meet demand for scientific research and engineering applications. Moreover, the radiation data often include erroneous and questionable values though preliminary quality-check has been done before the data release. Therefore, quality control of radiation data is often a prerequisite for using these data. In this study, a set of quality-check procedures were implemented to control the quality of the solar radiation measurements at 97 stations in China. A hybrid model for estimating global solar radiation was then evaluated against the controlled data. The results show that the model can estimate the global radiation with accuracy of MBE less than 1.5 MJ m{sup -2} and RMSE less than 2.8 MJ m{sup -2} for daily radiation and RMSE less than 2.0 MJ m{sup -2} for monthly-mean daily radiation at individual stations over most of China except at a few stations where unsatisfactory estimates were possibly caused by severe air pollution or too dense clouds. The MBE averaged over all stations are about 0.7 MJ m{sup -2} and RMSE about 2.0 MJ m{sup -2} for daily radiation and RMSE about 1.3 MJ m{sup -2} for monthly-mean daily radiation. Finally, this model was used to fill data gaps and to expand solar radiation data set using routine meteorological station data in China. This data set would substantially contribute to some radiation-related scientific studies and engineering applications in China. (author)

  16. Estimated global incidence of Japanese encephalitis: a systematic review

    PubMed Central

    Campbell, Grant L; Hills, Susan L; Fischer, Marc; Jacobson, Julie A; Hoke, Charles H; Hombach, Joachim M; Marfin, Anthony A; Solomon, Tom; Tsai, Theodore F; Tsu, Vivien D

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Objective To update the estimated global incidence of Japanese encephalitis (JE) using recent data for the purpose of guiding prevention and control efforts. Methods Thirty-two areas endemic for JE in 24 Asian and Western Pacific countries were sorted into 10 incidence groups on the basis of published data and expert opinion. Population-based surveillance studies using laboratory-confirmed cases were sought for each incidence group by a computerized search of the scientific literature. When no eligible studies existed for a particular incidence group, incidence data were extrapolated from related groups. Findings A total of 12 eligible studies representing 7 of 10 incidence groups in 24 JE-endemic countries were identified. Approximately 67 900 JE cases typically occur annually (overall incidence: 1.8 per 100 000), of which only about 10% are reported to the World Health Organization. Approximately 33 900 (50%) of these cases occur in China (excluding Taiwan) and approximately 51 000 (75%) occur in children aged 0–14 years (incidence: 5.4 per 100 000). Approximately 55 000 (81%) cases occur in areas with well established or developing JE vaccination programmes, while approximately 12 900 (19%) occur in areas with minimal or no JE vaccination programmes. Conclusion Recent data allowed us to refine the estimate of the global incidence of JE, which remains substantial despite improvements in vaccination coverage. More and better incidence studies in selected countries, particularly China and India, are needed to further refine these estimates. PMID:22084515

  17. Global estimates of evapotranspiration and gross primary production based on MODIS and global meteorology data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yuan, W.; Liu, S.; Yu, G.; Bonnefond, J.-M.; Chen, J.; Davis, K.; Desai, A.R.; Goldstein, Allen H.; Gianelle, D.; Rossi, F.; Suyker, A.E.; Verma, S.B.

    2010-01-01

    The simulation of gross primary production (GPP) at various spatial and temporal scales remains a major challenge for quantifying the global carbon cycle. We developed a light use efficiency model, called EC-LUE, driven by only four variables: normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), air temperature, and the Bowen ratio of sensible to latent heat flux. The EC-LUE model may have the most potential to adequately address the spatial and temporal dynamics of GPP because its parameters (i.e., the potential light use efficiency and optimal plant growth temperature) are invariant across the various land cover types. However, the application of the previous EC-LUE model was hampered by poor prediction of Bowen ratio at the large spatial scale. In this study, we substituted the Bowen ratio with the ratio of evapotranspiration (ET) to net radiation, and revised the RS-PM (Remote Sensing-Penman Monteith) model for quantifying ET. Fifty-four eddy covariance towers, including various ecosystem types, were selected to calibrate and validate the revised RS-PM and EC-LUE models. The revised RS-PM model explained 82% and 68% of the observed variations of ET for all the calibration and validation sites, respectively. Using estimated ET as input, the EC-LUE model performed well in calibration and validation sites, explaining 75% and 61% of the observed GPP variation for calibration and validation sites respectively.Global patterns of ET and GPP at a spatial resolution of 0.5° latitude by 0.6° longitude during the years 2000–2003 were determined using the global MERRA dataset (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). The global estimates of ET and GPP agreed well with the other global models from the literature, with the highest ET and GPP over tropical forests and the lowest values in dry and high latitude areas. However, comparisons with observed

  18. Estimating the Efficiency of Phosphopeptide Identification by Tandem Mass Spectrometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsu, Chuan-Chih; Xue, Liang; Arrington, Justine V.; Wang, Pengcheng; Paez Paez, Juan Sebastian; Zhou, Yuan; Zhu, Jian-Kang; Tao, W. Andy

    2017-03-01

    Mass spectrometry has played a significant role in the identification of unknown phosphoproteins and sites of phosphorylation in biological samples. Analyses of protein phosphorylation, particularly large scale phosphoproteomic experiments, have recently been enhanced by efficient enrichment, fast and accurate instrumentation, and better software, but challenges remain because of the low stoichiometry of phosphorylation and poor phosphopeptide ionization efficiency and fragmentation due to neutral loss. Phosphoproteomics has become an important dimension in systems biology studies, and it is essential to have efficient analytical tools to cover a broad range of signaling events. To evaluate current mass spectrometric performance, we present here a novel method to estimate the efficiency of phosphopeptide identification by tandem mass spectrometry. Phosphopeptides were directly isolated from whole plant cell extracts, dephosphorylated, and then incubated with one of three purified kinases—casein kinase II, mitogen-activated protein kinase 6, and SNF-related protein kinase 2.6—along with 16O4- and 18O4-ATP separately for in vitro kinase reactions. Phosphopeptides were enriched and analyzed by LC-MS. The phosphopeptide identification rate was estimated by comparing phosphopeptides identified by tandem mass spectrometry with phosphopeptide pairs generated by stable isotope labeled kinase reactions. Overall, we found that current high speed and high accuracy mass spectrometers can only identify 20%-40% of total phosphopeptides primarily due to relatively poor fragmentation, additional modifications, and low abundance, highlighting the urgent need for continuous efforts to improve phosphopeptide identification efficiency.

  19. Greenland and Antarctica Ice Sheet Mass Changes and Effects on Global Sea Level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forsberg, Rene; Sørensen, Louise; Simonsen, Sebastian

    2017-01-01

    Thirteen years of GRACE data provide an excellent picture of the current mass changes of Greenland and Antarctica, with mass loss in the GRACE period 2002-2015 amounting to 265 ± 25 GT/year for Greenland (including peripheral ice caps), and 95 ± 50 GT/year for Antarctica, corresponding to 0.72 and 0.26 mm/year average global sea level change. A significant acceleration in mass loss rate is found, especially for Antarctica, while Greenland mass loss, after a corresponding acceleration period, and a record mass loss in the summer of 2012, has seen a slight decrease in short-term mass loss trend. The yearly mass balance estimates, based on point mass inversion methods, have relatively large errors, both due to uncertainties in the glacial isostatic adjustment processes, especially for Antarctica, leakage from unmodelled ocean mass changes, and (for Greenland) difficulties in separating mass signals from the Greenland ice sheet and the adjacent Canadian ice caps. The limited resolution of GRACE affects the uncertainty of total mass loss to a smaller degree; we illustrate the "real" sources of mass changes by including satellite altimetry elevation change results in a joint inversion with GRACE, showing that mass change occurs primarily associated with major outlet glaciers, as well as a narrow coastal band. For Antarctica, the primary changes are associated with the major outlet glaciers in West Antarctica (Pine Island and Thwaites Glacier systems), as well as on the Antarctic Peninsula, where major glacier accelerations have been observed after the 2002 collapse of the Larsen B Ice Shelf.

  20. Predicting global community properties from uncertain estimates of interaction strengths

    PubMed Central

    Barabás, György; Allesina, Stefano

    2015-01-01

    The community matrix measures the direct effect of species on each other in an ecological community. It can be used to determine whether a system is stable (returns to equilibrium after small perturbations of the population abundances), reactive (perturbations are initially amplified before damping out), and to determine the response of any individual species to perturbations of environmental parameters. However, several studies show that small errors in estimating the entries of the community matrix translate into large errors in predicting individual species responses. Here, we ask whether there are properties of complex communities one can still predict using only a crude, order-of-magnitude estimate of the community matrix entries. Using empirical data, randomly generated community matrices, and those generated by the Allometric Trophic Network model, we show that the stability and reactivity properties of systems can be predicted with good accuracy. We also provide theoretical insight into when and why our crude approximations are expected to yield an accurate description of communities. Our results indicate that even rough estimates of interaction strengths can be useful for assessing global properties of large systems. PMID:26246417

  1. Remote Sensing of Cryosphere: Estimation of Mass Balance Change in Himalayan Glaciers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ambinakudige, Shrinidhi; Joshi, Kabindra

    2012-07-01

    Glacial changes are an important indicator of climate change. Our understanding mass balance change in Himalayan glaciers is limited. This study estimates mass balance of some major glaciers in the Sagarmatha National Park (SNP) in Nepal using remote sensing applications. Remote sensing technique to measure mass balance of glaciers is an important methodological advance in the highly rugged Himalayan terrain. This study uses ASTER VNIR, 3N (nadir view) and 3B (backward view) bands to generate Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) for the SNP area for the years 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005. Glacier boundaries were delineated using combination of boundaries available in the Global land ice measurement (GLIMS) database and various band ratios derived from ASTER images. Elevation differences, glacial area, and ice densities were used to estimate the change in mass balance. The results indicated that the rate of glacier mass balance change was not uniform across glaciers. While there was a decrease in mass balance of some glaciers, some showed increase. This paper discusses how each glacier in the SNP area varied in its annual mass balance measurement during the study period.

  2. Bayesian Mass Estimates of the Milky Way: Inferring the Mass Profile from Globular Cluster Kinematics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eadie, Gwendolyn; Harris, William E.; Springford, Aaron; Widrow, Larry

    2017-01-01

    The mass and cumulative mass profile of the Milky Way's dark matter halo is a fundamental property of the Galaxy, and yet these quantities remain poorly constrained and span almost two orders of magnitude in the literature. There are a variety of methods to measure the mass of the Milky Way, and a common way to constrain the mass uses kinematic information of satellite objects (e.g. globular clusters) orbiting the Galaxy. One reason precise estimates of the mass and mass profile remain elusive is that the kinematic data of the globular clusters are incomplete; for some both line-of-sight and proper motion measurements are available (i.e. complete data), and for others there are only line-of-sight velocities (i.e. incomplete data). Furthermore, some proper motion measurements suffer from large measurement uncertainties, and these uncertainties can be difficult to take into account because they propagate in complicated ways. Past methods have dealt with incomplete data by using either only the line-of-sight measurements (and throwing away the proper motions), or only using the complete data. In either case, valuable information is not included in the analysis. During my PhD research, I have been developing a coherent hierarchical Bayesian method to estimate the mass and mass profile of the Galaxy that 1) includes both complete and incomplete kinematic data simultaneously in the analysis, and 2) includes measurement uncertainties in a meaningful way. In this presentation, I will introduce our approach in a way that is accessible and clear, and will also present our estimates of the Milky Way's total mass and mass profile using all available kinematic data from the globular cluster population of the Galaxy.

  3. An Iterated Global Mascon Solution with Focus on Land Ice Mass Evolution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Luthcke, S. B.; Sabaka, T.; Rowlands, D. D.; Lemoine, F. G.; Loomis, B. D.; Boy, J. P.

    2012-01-01

    Land ice mass evolution is determined from a new GRACE global mascon solution. The solution is estimated directly from the reduction of the inter-satellite K-band range rate observations taking into account the full noise covariance, and formally iterating the solution. The new solution increases signal recovery while reducing the GRACE KBRR observation residuals. The mascons are estimated with 10-day and 1-arc-degree equal area sampling, applying anisotropic constraints for enhanced temporal and spatial resolution of the recovered land ice signal. The details of the solution are presented including error and resolution analysis. An Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) adaptive filter is applied to the mascon solution time series to compute timing of balance seasons and annual mass balances. The details and causes of the spatial and temporal variability of the land ice regions studied are discussed.

  4. Estimations of global no, emissions and their uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, D. S.; Köhler, I.; Grobler, E.; Rohrer, F.; Sausen, R.; Gallardo-Klenner, L.; Olivier, J. G. J.; Dentener, F. J.; Bouwman, A. F.

    The AERONOX programme investigated the impact of NO x emissions from aircraft on the atmosphere and included an extensive modelling programme. In the model comparisons undertaken within the AERONOX programme, a "standard" set of emissions of NO x from both aviation and non-aviation sources was required so that differences between the models could be examined. This paper describes the data sets used in the study. These were: fossil fuel combustion from stationary and mobile sources at Earth's surface (22 Tg N yr -1), tropical biomass burning (5 Tg N yr -1), soil microbial production of NO (4 Tg N yr -1), lightning (5 Tg N yr -1), and the stratospheric decomposition of nitrous oxide (0.6 Tg N yr -1), ). However, global emission inventories of trace gases are developing rapidly: this paper also presents some emission estimates updated since the AERONOX study and also attempts to quantify uncertainties. The lightning source was constructed using convective cloud-top height from a GCM and differential rates of NO production calculated for cloud-to-cloud, and cloud-to-ground strikes. A revised biomass inventory including deforestation, savanna burning, agricultural waste burning and biofuel combustion results in approximately 8 Tg Nyr -1. This estimate includes sources beyond the tropics. Both extrapolation of measurements of soil NO fluxes by biome type, and a further refinement of the AERONOX soils emission model resulted in an emission of approximately 7 Tg Nyr -1. Ammonia oxidation as a source of NO x is calculated to be 0.9 N Tg yr -1), with a range of 0-l.6 Tg N yr -1), which shows that this is a relatively unimportant source of NO x in the troposphere. Uncertainty estimates for all sources have been given and discussed. The global source term for NO x for all sources (including the revisions) is estimated to be 44 Tg N yr -1), with an uncertainty range of 23-81 Tg N yr -1), A future scenario for fossil fuel combustion is given for 2025 resulting in an emission

  5. Estimating Sediment Mass Fluxes on Surfaces Sheltered by Live Vegetation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walter, Benjamin; Voegeli, Christian; Horender, Stefan

    2016-12-01

    We present a simple model based on already existing and widely used equations for estimating particle mass fluxes on surfaces sheltered by live vegetation. Wind-tunnel measurements of vertical profiles of mass flux in three different dense live plant canopies, and as a function of the spatially averaged skin friction velocity {u_{τ }}' , provide the baseline set of data. For the bare-sand surface, the total mass flux Q shows the typical b({u_τ }' - {u_{τ t}}')^{3 } increase with increasing skin friction velocity {u_{τ }}' , where b is a constant and {u_{τ t}}' is the threshold at the onset of particle erosion. Similar relations, however, with different values for b and {u_{τ t}}' compared to the bare-sand surface were found for experiments with 5.25 and 24.5 plants m^{-2} and can be explained by the spatial variations of u_{τ } for the canopy cases. Based on the resulting parameters b and {u_{τ t}}' , which are found to be functions of the roughness density λ , we present a final simple relation Q(λ , {u_{τ }}') used for estimating the total mass flux for surfaces sheltered by live vegetation.

  6. Anthropic estimates of the charge and mass of the proton

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Page, Don N.

    2009-05-01

    By combining a renormalization group argument relating the charge e and mass m of the proton by elnm≈-0.1π (in Planck units) with the Carter-Carr-Rees anthropic argument that gives an independent approximate relation m˜e between these two constants, both can be crudely estimated. These equations have the factor of 0.1π and the exponent of 20 which depend upon known discrete parameters (e.g., the number of generations of quarks and leptons, and the number of spatial dimensions), but they contain no continuous observed parameters. Their solution gives the charge of the proton correct to within about 8%, though the mass estimate is off by a factor of about 1000 (16% error on a logarithmic scale). When one adds a fudge factor of 10 previously given by Carr and Rees, the agreement for the charge is within about 2%, and the mass is off by a factor of about 3 (2.4% error on a logarithmic scale). If this 10 were replaced by 15, the charge agrees within 1.1% and the mass itself agrees within 0.7%.

  7. [Automatic Measurement of the Stellar Atmospheric Parameters Based Mass Estimation].

    PubMed

    Tu, Liang-ping; Wei, Hui-ming; Luo, A-li; Zhao, Yong-heng

    2015-11-01

    We have collected massive stellar spectral data in recent years, which leads to the research on the automatic measurement of stellar atmospheric physical parameters (effective temperature Teff, surface gravity log g and metallic abundance [Fe/ H]) become an important issue. To study the automatic measurement of these three parameters has important significance for some scientific problems, such as the evolution of the universe and so on. But the research of this problem is not very widely, some of the current methods are not able to estimate the values of the stellar atmospheric physical parameters completely and accurately. So in this paper, an automatic method to predict stellar atmospheric parameters based on mass estimation was presented, which can achieve the prediction of stellar effective temperature Teff, surface gravity log g and metallic abundance [Fe/H]. This method has small amount of computation and fast training speed. The main idea of this method is that firstly it need us to build some mass distributions, secondly the original spectral data was mapped into the mass space and then to predict the stellar parameter with the support vector regression (SVR) in the mass space. we choose the stellar spectral data from the United States SDSS-DR8 for the training and testing. We also compared the predicted results of this method with the SSPP and achieve higher accuracy. The predicted results are more stable and the experimental results show that the method is feasible and can predict the stellar atmospheric physical parameters effectively.

  8. Global Energetics of Solar Flares. IV. Coronal Mass Ejection Energetics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aschwanden, Markus J.

    2016-11-01

    This study entails the fourth part of a global flare energetics project, in which the mass m cme, kinetic energy E kin, and the gravitational potential energy E grav of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is measured in 399 M and X-class flare events observed during the first 3.5 years of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission, using a new method based on the EUV dimming effect. EUV dimming is modeled in terms of a radial adiabatic expansion process, which is fitted to the observed evolution of the total emission measure of the CME source region. The model derives the evolution of the mean electron density, the emission measure, the bulk plasma expansion velocity, the mass, and the energy in the CME source region. The EUV dimming method is truly complementary to the Thomson scattering method in white light, which probes the CME evolution in the heliosphere at r ≳ 2 R ⊙, while the EUV dimming method tracks the CME launch in the corona. We compare the CME parameters obtained in white light with the LASCO/C2 coronagraph with those obtained from EUV dimming with the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly onboard the SDO for all identical events in both data sets. We investigate correlations between CME parameters, the relative timing with flare parameters, frequency occurrence distributions, and the energy partition between magnetic, thermal, nonthermal, and CME energies. CME energies are found to be systematically lower than the dissipated magnetic energies, which is consistent with a magnetic origin of CMEs.

  9. Statistical estimates to emulate yields from global gridded crop models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blanc, Elodie

    2016-04-01

    This study provides a statistical emulator of crop yields based on global gridded crop model simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Fast Track project. The ensemble of simulations is used to build a panel of annual crop yields from five crop models and corresponding monthly weather variables for over a century at the grid cell level. This dataset is then used to estimate, for each crop and gridded crop model, the statistical relationship between yields and temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide. This study considers a new functional form to better capture the non-linear response of yields to weather, especially for extreme temperature and precipitation events. In- and out-of-sample validations show that the statistical models are able to closely replicate crop yields projected by the crop models and perform well out-of-sample. This study therefore provides a reliable and accessible alternative to global gridded crop yield models. By emulating crop yields for several models using parsimonious equations, the tools will be useful for climate change impact assessments and to account for uncertainty in crop modeling.

  10. Thunderstorm vertical velocities and mass flux estimated from satellite data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adler, R. F.; Fenn, D. D.

    1979-01-01

    Infrared geosynchronous satellite data with an interval of five minutes between images are used to estimate thunderstorm top ascent rates on two case study days. A mean vertical velocity of 3.5/ms for 19 clouds is calculated at a height of 8.7 km. This upward motion is representative of an area of approximately 10km on a side. Thunderstorm mass flux of approximately 2x10 to the 11th power/gs is calculated, which compares favorably with previous estimates. There is a significant difference in the mean calculated vertical velocity between elements associated with severe weather reports (w bar=4.6/ms) and those with no such reports (2.5/ms). Calculations were made using a velocity profile for an axially symmetric jet to estimate the peak updraft velocity. For the largest observed w value of 7.8/ms the calculation indicates a peak updraft of approximately 50/ms.

  11. Estimation of left ventricular mass in conscious dogs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Coleman, Bernell; Cothran, Laval N.; Ison-Franklin, E. L.; Hawthorne, E. W.

    1986-01-01

    A method for the assessment of the development or the regression of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) in a conscious instrumented animal is described. First, the single-slice short-axis area-length method for estimating the left-ventricular mass (LVM) and volume (LVV) was validated in 24 formaldehyde-fixed canine hearts, and a regression equation was developed that could be used in the intact animal to correct the sonomicrometrically estimated LVM. The LVM-assessment method, which uses the combined techniques of echocardiography and sonomicrometry (in conjunction with the regression equation), was shown to provide reliable and reproducible day-to-day estimates of LVM and LVV, and to be sensitive enough to detect serial changes during the development of LVH.

  12. TOPEX/POSEIDON tides estimated using a global inverse model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Egbert, Gary D.; Bennett, Andrew F.; Foreman, Michael G. G.

    1994-01-01

    Altimetric data from the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission will be used for studies of global ocean circulation and marine geophysics. However, it is first necessary to remove the ocean tides, which are aliased in the raw data. The tides are constrained by the two distinct types of information: the hydrodynamic equations which the tidal fields of elevations and velocities must satisfy, and direct observational data from tide gauges and satellite altimetry. Here we develop and apply a generalized inverse method, which allows us to combine rationally all of this information into global tidal fields best fitting both the data and the dynamics, in a least squares sense. The resulting inverse solution is a sum of the direct solution to the astronomically forced Laplace tidal equations and a linear combination of the representers for the data functionals. The representer functions (one for each datum) are determined by the dynamical equations, and by our prior estimates of the statistics or errors in these equations. Our major task is a direct numerical calculation of these representers. This task is computationally intensive, but well suited to massively parallel processing. By calculating the representers we reduce the full (infinite dimensional) problem to a relatively low-dimensional problem at the outset, allowing full control over the conditioning and hence the stability of the inverse solution. With the representers calculated we can easily update our model as additional TOPEX/POSEIDON data become available. As an initial illustration we invert harmonic constants from a set of 80 open-ocean tide gauges. We then present a practical scheme for direct inversion of TOPEX/POSEIDON crossover data. We apply this method to 38 cycles of geophysical data records (GDR) data, computing preliminary global estimates of the four principal tidal constituents, M(sub 2), S(sub 2), K(sub 1) and O(sub 1). The inverse solution yields tidal fields which are simultaneously smoother, and in better

  13. Leishmaniasis Worldwide and Global Estimates of Its Incidence

    PubMed Central

    Vélez, Iván D.; Bern, Caryn; Herrero, Mercé; Desjeux, Philippe; Cano, Jorge; Jannin, Jean

    2012-01-01

    As part of a World Health Organization-led effort to update the empirical evidence base for the leishmaniases, national experts provided leishmaniasis case data for the last 5 years and information regarding treatment and control in their respective countries and a comprehensive literature review was conducted covering publications on leishmaniasis in 98 countries and three territories (see ‘Leishmaniasis Country Profiles Text S1, S2, S3, S4, S5, S6, S7, S8, S9, S10, S11, S12, S13, S14, S15, S16, S17, S18, S19, S20, S21, S22, S23, S24, S25, S26, S27, S28, S29, S30, S31, S32, S33, S34, S35, S36, S37, S38, S39, S40, S41, S42, S43, S44, S45, S46, S47, S48, S49, S50, S51, S52, S53, S54, S55, S56, S57, S58, S59, S60, S61, S62, S63, S64, S65, S66, S67, S68, S69, S70, S71, S72, S73, S74, S75, S76, S77, S78, S79, S80, S81, S82, S83, S84, S85, S86, S87, S88, S89, S90, S91, S92, S93, S94, S95, S96, S97, S98, S99, S100, S101’). Additional information was collated during meetings conducted at WHO regional level between 2007 and 2011. Two questionnaires regarding epidemiology and drug access were completed by experts and national program managers. Visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence ranges were estimated by country and epidemiological region based on reported incidence, underreporting rates if available, and the judgment of national and international experts. Based on these estimates, approximately 0.2 to 0.4 cases and 0.7 to 1.2 million VL and CL cases, respectively, occur each year. More than 90% of global VL cases occur in six countries: India, Bangladesh, Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia and Brazil. Cutaneous leishmaniasis is more widely distributed, with about one-third of cases occurring in each of three epidemiological regions, the Americas, the Mediterranean basin, and western Asia from the Middle East to Central Asia. The ten countries with the highest estimated case counts, Afghanistan, Algeria, Colombia, Brazil, Iran, Syria, Ethiopia, North Sudan, Costa

  14. SDSS IV MaNGA: the global and local stellar mass assemby histories of galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ibarra-Medel, Héctor J.; Sánchez, Sebastián F.; Avila-Reese, Vladimir; Hernández-Toledo, Héctor M.; González, J. Jesús; Drory, Niv; Bundy, Kevin; Bizyaev, Dmitry; Cano-Díaz, Mariana; Malanushenko, Elena; Pan, Kaike; Roman-Lopes, Alexandre; Thomas, Daniel

    2016-12-01

    Using the fossil record method implemented through Pipe3D, we reconstruct the global and radial stellar mass growth histories (MGHs) of a large sample of galaxies, ranging from dwarf to giant objects, from the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at the Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey. We confirm that the main driver of the global MGHs is mass, with more massive galaxies assembling earlier (downsizing), though for a given mass, the global MGHs segregate by colour, specific star formation rate and morphological type. From the inferred radial mean MGHs, we find that at fractions of assembled mass larger than ˜80 per cent, the innermost regions formed stars, on average, in the inside-out mode. At earlier epochs, when the age estimation of the method becomes poor, the MGHs seem to be spatially homogeneous or even in the outside-in mode, especially for the red/quiescent/early-type galaxies. The innermost MGHs are, in general, less scattered around the mean than the outermost MGHs. For dwarf and low-mass galaxies, we do not find evidence of an outside-in formation mode; instead, their radial MGHs are very diverse most of the time, with periods of outside-in and inside-out modes (or strong radial migration), suggesting this is an episodic star formation history. Blue/star-forming/late-type galaxies present, on average, a significantly more pronounced inside-out formation mode than red/quiescent/early-type galaxies, independently of mass. We discuss our results in the light of the processes of galaxy formation, quenching and radial migration. We also discuss the uncertainties and biases of the fossil record method and how these could affect our results.

  15. Recipe Estimation Using Mass Spectrometer and Large-Scale Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mamun, Al; Nakamoto, Takamichi

    An odor recorder is an instrument capable of determining the qualitative and quantitative composition of the target smell (e.g. apple), so called odor recipe. A variety of smells can be generated by blending multiple odor components; an odor recorder can reproduce smells as well as record them so that the sensor array output pattern of the blended odor can match that of the target odor. Although the range of smell to be recorded has been so far limited, this work enhances that range using mass spectrometry without GC. We previously proposed the algorithm to select appropriate odor components among huge number of candidates. Here we applied this proposed algorithm experimentally for reproducing different eight fruit flavors using odor components selected from our laboratory database, composed of recorded mass patterns of 190 components. The blended and target smells were compared using sensory test (triangle test). Sensory test revealed that the smell blended according to the estimated recipe using our proposed method was almost the same as the target one. Moreover, even if the less contributed components in mass spectra are eliminated from the estimated recipe, the flavor remains almost similar to that of the target one.

  16. Center of Mass Estimation for a Spinning Spacecraft Using Doppler Shift of the GPS Carrier Frequency

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sedlak, Joseph E.

    2016-01-01

    A sequential filter is presented for estimating the center of mass (CM) of a spinning spacecraft using Doppler shift data from a set of onboard Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers. The advantage of the proposed method is that it is passive and can be run continuously in the background without using commanded thruster firings to excite spacecraft dynamical motion for observability. The NASA Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission is used as a test case for the CM estimator. The four MMS spacecraft carry star cameras for accurate attitude and spin rate estimation. The angle between the spacecraft nominal spin axis (for MMS this is the geometric body Z-axis) and the major principal axis of inertia is called the coning angle. The transverse components of the estimated rate provide a direct measure of the coning angle. The coning angle has been seen to shift slightly after every orbit and attitude maneuver. This change is attributed to a small asymmetry in the fuel distribution that changes with each burn. This paper shows a correlation between the apparent mass asymmetry deduced from the variations in the coning angle and the CM estimates made using the GPS Doppler data. The consistency between the changes in the coning angle and the CM provides validation of the proposed GPS Doppler method for estimation of the CM on spinning spacecraft.

  17. Mass Loss and Surface Displacement Estimates in Greenland from GRACE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jensen, Tim; Forsberg, Rene

    2015-04-01

    The estimation of ice sheet mass changes from GRACE is basically an inverse problem, the solution is non-unique and several procedures for determining the mass distribution exists. We present Greenland mass loss results from two such procedures, namely a direct spherical harmonic inversion procedure possible through a thin layer assumption, and a generalized inverse masscon procedure. These results are updated to the end of 2014, including the unusual 2013 mass gain anomaly, and show a good agreement when taking into account leakage from the Canadian Icecaps. The GRACE mass changes are further compared to GPS uplift data on the bedrock along the edge of the ice sheet. The solid Earth deformation is assumed to consist of an elastic deformation of the crust and an anelastic deformation of the underlying mantle (GIA). The crustal deformation is due to current surface loading effects and therefore contains a strong seasonal component of variation, superimposed on a secular trend. The majority of the anelastic GIA deformation of the mantle is believed to be approximately constant. An accelerating secular trend and seasonal changes, as seen in Greenland, is therefore assumed to be due to elastic deformation from changes in surface mass loading from the ice sheet. The GRACE and GPS comparison is only valid by assuring that the signal content of the two observables are consistent. The GPS receivers are measuring movement at a single point on the bedrock surface, and therefore sensitive to a limited loading footprint, while the GRACE satellites on the other hand measures a filtered, attenuated gravitational field, at an altitude of approximately 500 km, making it sensitive to a much larger area. Despite this, the seasonal loading signal in the two observables show a reasonably good agreement.

  18. Mass estimation and discrimination during brief periods of zero gravity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ross, H. E.; Reschke, M. F.

    1982-01-01

    Under zero gravity, the gravitational cues to mass are removed, but the inertial cues remain. A sensation of heaviness is generated if objects are shaken, and hence given a changing acceleration. A magnitude estimation experiment was conducted during the 0-G phase of parabolic flight and on the ground, and the results suggested that objects felt lighter under 0 G than under 1 G. Mass discrimination was also measured in flight, and yielded Weber fractions of .18 under 0 G, .16 under 1.8 G, and .09 under 1 G. Poor performance under microgravity and macrogravity was probably due mainly to lack of time for adaptation to changed G levels. It is predicted that discrimination should improve during the course of prolonged spaceflight, and that there should be an aftereffect of poor discrimination on return to earth.

  19. Utilizing Ion-Mobility Data to Estimate Molecular Masses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Duong, Tuan; Kanik, Isik

    2008-01-01

    A method is being developed for utilizing readings of an ion-mobility spectrometer (IMS) to estimate molecular masses of ions that have passed through the spectrometer. The method involves the use of (1) some feature-based descriptors of structures of molecules of interest and (2) reduced ion mobilities calculated from IMS readings as inputs to (3) a neural network. This development is part of a larger effort to enable the use of IMSs as relatively inexpensive, robust, lightweight instruments to identify, via molecular masses, individual compounds or groups of compounds (especially organic compounds) that may be present in specific environments or samples. Potential applications include detection of organic molecules as signs of life on remote planets, modeling and detection of biochemicals of interest in the pharmaceutical and agricultural industries, and detection of chemical and biological hazards in industrial, homeland-security, and industrial settings.

  20. Exploring new refinements to estimation of Te and mass loading

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheppmann, B.; Lowry, A. R.

    2015-12-01

    Effective elastic thickness (Te) is a measure of integrated lithospheric strength that depends on rheological parameters such as lithology, temperature, water fugacity, and state of stress. It is a useful constraint for resolving in-situ rheology and stress within the lithosphere, and therefore critical to understanding surface deformation and controls on tectonic processes. Te is commonly estimated via comparison of observed and model-predicted spectral-domain coherence between Bouguer gravity and topography signals. The Te producing a model coherence that best fits observed coherence is taken to best represent lithospheric bending strength. However, the solution relies on accuracy of the method's assumption that loads at the surface and in Earth's interior are truly uncorrelated; Te estimates may be biased in regions where this criterion fails. Determining mechanical anisotropy is also ambiguous, as true anisotropy cannot be reliably distinguished from artefacts in gravity and topography data inversion. We propose a new modeling approach that will refine existing Te estimation via two innovations. First, we reduce the null-space in estimates of surface- versus subsurface contributions to loading by assimilating independent estimates of subsurface mass variations derived from EarthScope USArray seismic imaging data. This reduces the ambiguity of loading estimates, and provides an independent means of testing for anisotropy of the applied loads. Second, we substitute a finite-element approach to forward modeling spatially-varying flexural response in place of conventional uniform-Te linear thin plate models. This modification allows Te to vary and and loads to update iteratively, and improves separation of intrinsic Te-anisotropy from effects introduced by lateral variations in isotropic Te. A variable-Te forward modeling approach also improves spatial resolution of the inversion as it is no longer limited by a need to subsample data through windowing or wavelets.

  1. Global cost estimates of reducing carbon emissions through avoided deforestation.

    PubMed

    Kindermann, Georg; Obersteiner, Michael; Sohngen, Brent; Sathaye, Jayant; Andrasko, Kenneth; Rametsteiner, Ewald; Schlamadinger, Bernhard; Wunder, Sven; Beach, Robert

    2008-07-29

    Tropical deforestation is estimated to cause about one-quarter of anthropogenic carbon emissions, loss of biodiversity, and other environmental services. United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change talks are now considering mechanisms for avoiding deforestation (AD), but the economic potential of AD has yet to be addressed. We use three economic models of global land use and management to analyze the potential contribution of AD activities to reduced greenhouse gas emissions. AD activities are found to be a competitive, low-cost abatement option. A program providing a 10% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 0.3-0.6 Gt (1 Gt = 1 x 10(5) g) CO(2).yr(-1) in emission reductions and would require $0.4 billion to $1.7 billion.yr(-1) for 30 years. A 50% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 1.5-2.7 Gt CO(2).yr(-1) in emission reductions and would require $17.2 billion to $28.0 billion.yr(-1). Finally, some caveats to the analysis that could increase costs of AD programs are described.

  2. In situ global method for measurement of oxygen demand and mass transfer

    SciTech Connect

    Klasson, K.T.; Lundbaeck, K.M.O.; Clausen, E.C.; Gaddy, J.L.

    1997-05-01

    Two aerobic microorganisms, Saccharomycopsis lipolytica and Brevibacterium lactofermentum, have been used in a study of mass transfer and oxygen uptake from a global perspective using a closed gas system. Oxygen concentrations in the gas and liquid were followed using oxygen electrodes, and the results allowed for easy calculation of in situ oxygen transport. The cell yields on oxygen for S. lipolytica and B. lactofermentum were 1.01 and 1.53 g/g respectively. The mass transfer coefficient was estimated as 10 h{sup {minus}1} at 500 rpm for both fermentations. The advantages with this method are noticeable since the use of model systems may be avoided, and the in situ measurements of oxygen demand assure reliable data for scale-up.

  3. Target prices for mass production of tyrosine kinase inhibitors for global cancer treatment

    PubMed Central

    Hill, Andrew; Gotham, Dzintars; Fortunak, Joseph; Meldrum, Jonathan; Erbacher, Isabelle; Martin, Manuel; Shoman, Haitham; Levi, Jacob; Powderly, William G; Bower, Mark

    2016-01-01

    Objective To calculate sustainable generic prices for 4 tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs). Background TKIs have proven survival benefits in the treatment of several cancers, including chronic myeloid leukaemia, breast, liver, renal and lung cancer. However, current high prices are a barrier to treatment. Mass production of low-cost generic antiretrovirals has led to over 13 million people being on HIV/AIDS treatment worldwide. This analysis estimates target prices for generic TKIs, assuming similar methods of mass production. Methods Four TKIs with patent expiry dates in the next 5 years were selected for analysis: imatinib, erlotinib, lapatinib and sorafenib. Chemistry, dosing, published data on per-kilogram pricing for commercial transactions of active pharmaceutical ingredient (API), and quotes from manufacturers were used to estimate costs of production. Analysis included costs of excipients, formulation, packaging, shipping and a 50% profit margin. Target prices were compared with current prices. Global numbers of patients eligible for treatment with each TKI were estimated. Results API costs per kg were $347–$746 for imatinib, $2470 for erlotinib, $4671 for lapatinib, and $3000 for sorafenib. Basing on annual dose requirements, costs of formulation/packaging and a 50% profit margin, target generic prices per person-year were $128–$216 for imatinib, $240 for erlotinib, $1450 for sorafenib, and $4020 for lapatinib. Over 1 million people would be newly eligible to start treatment with these TKIs annually. Conclusions Mass generic production of several TKIs could achieve treatment prices in the range of $128–$4020 per person-year, versus current US prices of $75161–$139 138. Generic TKIs could allow significant savings and scaling-up of treatment globally, for over 1 million eligible patients. PMID:26817636

  4. Galaxy cluster mass estimation from stacked spectroscopic analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farahi, Arya; Evrard, August E.; Rozo, Eduardo; Rykoff, Eli S.; Wechsler, Risa H.

    2016-08-01

    We use simulated galaxy surveys to study: (i) how galaxy membership in redMaPPer clusters maps to the underlying halo population, and (ii) the accuracy of a mean dynamical cluster mass, Mσ(λ), derived from stacked pairwise spectroscopy of clusters with richness λ. Using ˜130 000 galaxy pairs patterned after the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) redMaPPer cluster sample study of Rozo et al., we show that the pairwise velocity probability density function of central-satellite pairs with mi < 19 in the simulation matches the form seen in Rozo et al. Through joint membership matching, we deconstruct the main Gaussian velocity component into its halo contributions, finding that the top-ranked halo contributes ˜60 per cent of the stacked signal. The halo mass scale inferred by applying the virial scaling of Evrard et al. to the velocity normalization matches, to within a few per cent, the log-mean halo mass derived through galaxy membership matching. We apply this approach, along with miscentring and galaxy velocity bias corrections, to estimate the log-mean matched halo mass at z = 0.2 of SDSS redMaPPer clusters. Employing the velocity bias constraints of Guo et al., we find = ln (M30) + αm ln (λ/30) with M30 = 1.56 ± 0.35 × 1014 M⊙ and αm = 1.31 ± 0.06stat ± 0.13sys. Systematic uncertainty in the velocity bias of satellite galaxies overwhelmingly dominates the error budget.

  5. A mass estimate of an intermediate-mass black hole in ω Centauri

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miocchi, P.

    2010-05-01

    Context. The problem of the existence of intermediate-mass black holes (IMBHs) at the centre of globular clusters is a hot and controversial topic in current astrophysical research with important implications in stellar and galaxy formation. Aims: The purpose of this paper is to provide further evidence on the presence of an IMBH in ω Centauri and to give an independent estimate of its mass. Methods: We employed a self-consistent spherical model with anisotropic velocity distribution. It consists in a generalisation of the King model by including the Bahcall-Wolf distribution function in the IMBH vicinity. Results: By the parametric fitting of the model to recent HST/ACS data for the surface brightness profile, we found an IMBH to cluster total mass ratio of M_bullet /M = 5.8-1.2+0.9 × 10-3. It is also found that the model yields a fit of the line-of-sight velocity dispersion profile that is better without mass segregation than in the segregated case. This confirms the current thought of a non-relaxed status for this peculiar cluster. The best fit model to the kinematic data leads, moreover, to a cluster total mass estimate of M = (3.1 ± 0.3) × 106 M_⊙, thus giving an IMBH mass in the range 1.3×104 < M_bullet < 2.3×104 M_⊙ (at 1σ confidence level). A slight degree of radial velocity anisotropy in the outer region (r ⪆ 12') is required to match the outer surface brightness profile.

  6. Sequential estimation of surface water mass changes from daily satellite gravimetry data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramillien, G. L.; Frappart, F.; Gratton, S.; Vasseur, X.

    2015-03-01

    We propose a recursive Kalman filtering approach to map regional spatio-temporal variations of terrestrial water mass over large continental areas, such as South America. Instead of correcting hydrology model outputs by the GRACE observations using a Kalman filter estimation strategy, regional 2-by-2 degree water mass solutions are constructed by integration of daily potential differences deduced from GRACE K-band range rate (KBRR) measurements. Recovery of regional water mass anomaly averages obtained by accumulation of information of daily noise-free simulated GRACE data shows that convergence is relatively fast and yields accurate solutions. In the case of cumulating real GRACE KBRR data contaminated by observational noise, the sequential method of step-by-step integration provides estimates of water mass variation for the period 2004-2011 by considering a set of suitable a priori error uncertainty parameters to stabilize the inversion. Spatial and temporal averages of the Kalman filter solutions over river basin surfaces are consistent with the ones computed using global monthly/10-day GRACE solutions from official providers CSR, GFZ and JPL. They are also highly correlated to in situ records of river discharges (70-95 %), especially for the Obidos station where the total outflow of the Amazon River is measured. The sparse daily coverage of the GRACE satellite tracks limits the time resolution of the regional Kalman filter solutions, and thus the detection of short-term hydrological events.

  7. Impact of global warming on the Antarctic mass balance and global sea level

    SciTech Connect

    Budd, W.F.; Simmonds, I.

    1992-03-01

    The onset of global warming from increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can have a number of important different impacts on the Antarctic ice sheet. These include increasing basal melt of ice shelves, faster flow of the grounded ice, increased surface ablation in coastal regions, and increased precipitation over the interior. An analysis of these separate terms by ice sheet modeling indicates that the impact of increasing ice sheet flow rates on sea level does not become a dominant factor until 100--200 years after the realization of the warming. For the time period of the next 100 years the most important impact on sea level from the Antarctic mass balance can be expected to result from increasing precipitation minus evaporation balance over the grounded ice. The present Antarctic net accumulation and coastal ice flux each amount to about 2000 km3 yr-1, both of which on their own would equate to approximately 6 mm yr-1 of sea level change. The present rate of sea level rise of about 1.2 mm yr-1 is therefore equivalent to about 20% imbalance in the Antarctic mass fluxes. The magnitude of the changes to the Antarctic precipitation and evaporation have been studied by a series of General Circulation Model experiments, using a model which gives a reasonable simulation of the present Antarctic climate, including precipitation and evaporation.

  8. The global impact of noncommunicable diseases: estimates and projections.

    PubMed

    Manton, K G

    1988-01-01

    With the aging of populations in developing countries there is both a demographic and an epidemiological transition which affects the impact of chronic degenerative diseases on the health status of the populations. Demographic transition takes place in countries where there are effective programmes of disease control which allow for survival during the early years of childhood and adolescence. This results in an increase in life expectancy which places larger proportions of the population in the age range (60 years and older) in which chronic degenerative diseases become the major determinants of health status. Epidemiological transition in diseases may also be brought about by shifts in social and economic patterns which favour detrimental changes in risk factors for the chronic degenerative diseases. Such changes may include health-related behaviour which augments dietary consumption of fats and alcohol, increases obesity, increases smoking and decreases physical activity. Such changes in risk-factor levels increase the prevalence of chronic degenerative diseases which manifest themselves at later ages, and for which early preventive actions could be cost-effective. In order to illustrate the impact of both demographic and risk-factor effects, analyses are made of the impact of increases in life expectancy on cause-specific mortality in both developing and developed countries. It is shown that there is great similarity in the effect of major noncommunicable diseases on the life expectancy of adults in both developed and developing countries. The major differences are seen to be in the proportions of deaths expected from such diseases as cancer, diabetes, heart disease, stroke and cirrhosis; but not in the distribution of age at death which is the better measure of disease impact. Demographic analyses, computing indirect estimates of mortality, also demonstrate that there are currently more chronic disease deaths in developing than developed countries and that as

  9. Global Evaluations of Mountain Glacier and Ice Cap Mass Balance (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pfeffer, W. T.

    2010-12-01

    Net mass change in the aggregate global Mountain Glacier and Ice Cap (MGIC) cryospheric component is presently a significant factor in changing land hydrology, regional/local alterations of ocean salinity, and as a contributor to sea level change. The accurate evaluation of this net mass change is complicated by the very large number (potentially as many as 400,000) of individual ice bodies, their wide geographic distribution, the lack of adequate ongoing mass change observations, and even a lack of basic inventory data in some of the world’s most active MGIC systems, for example in Alaska and among the peripheral ice bodies surrounding the Greenland Ice Sheet. Estimates of aggregate MGIC mass change are made by upscaling of sparse observations by a variety of averaging and extrapolation methods, and also require power law area-volume scaling methods to infer unmeasured ice volumes from measured areas. I review these methods, including the synthesis of MGIC changes presented in the recent Snow, Water, Ice, and Permafrost Assessment (SWIPA), conducted by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program.

  10. Estimated global nitrogen deposition using NO2 column density

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lu, Xuehe; Jiang, Hong; Zhang, Xiuying; Liu, Jinxun; Zhang, Zhen; Jin, Jiaxin; Wang, Ying; Xu, Jianhui; Cheng, Miaomiao

    2013-01-01

    Global nitrogen deposition has increased over the past 100 years. Monitoring and simulation studies of nitrogen deposition have evaluated nitrogen deposition at both the global and regional scale. With the development of remote-sensing instruments, tropospheric NO2 column density retrieved from Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) and Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY) sensors now provides us with a new opportunity to understand changes in reactive nitrogen in the atmosphere. The concentration of NO2 in the atmosphere has a significant effect on atmospheric nitrogen deposition. According to the general nitrogen deposition calculation method, we use the principal component regression method to evaluate global nitrogen deposition based on global NO2 column density and meteorological data. From the accuracy of the simulation, about 70% of the land area of the Earth passed a significance test of regression. In addition, NO2 column density has a significant influence on regression results over 44% of global land. The simulated results show that global average nitrogen deposition was 0.34 g m−2 yr−1 from 1996 to 2009 and is increasing at about 1% per year. Our simulated results show that China, Europe, and the USA are the three hotspots of nitrogen deposition according to previous research findings. In this study, Southern Asia was found to be another hotspot of nitrogen deposition (about 1.58 g m−2 yr−1 and maintaining a high growth rate). As nitrogen deposition increases, the number of regions threatened by high nitrogen deposits is also increasing. With N emissions continuing to increase in the future, areas whose ecosystem is affected by high level nitrogen deposition will increase.

  11. ESTIMATE OF GLOBAL METHANE EMISSIONS FROM COAL MINES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Country-specific emissions of methane (CH4) from underground coal mines, surface coal mines, and coal crushing and transport operations are estimated for 1989. Emissions for individual countries are estimated by using two sets of regression equations (R2 values range from 0.56 to...

  12. Species richness on coral reefs and the pursuit of convergent global estimates.

    PubMed

    Fisher, Rebecca; O'Leary, Rebecca A; Low-Choy, Samantha; Mengersen, Kerrie; Knowlton, Nancy; Brainard, Russell E; Caley, M Julian

    2015-02-16

    Global species richness, whether estimated by taxon, habitat, or ecosystem, is a key biodiversity metric. Yet, despite the global importance of biodiversity and increasing threats to it (e.g., we are no better able to estimate global species richness now than we were six decades ago. Estimates of global species richness remain highly uncertain and are often logically inconsistent. They are also difficult to validate because estimation of global species richness requires extrapolation beyond the number of species known. Given that somewhere between 3% and >96% of species on Earth may remain undiscovered, depending on the methods used and the taxa considered, such extrapolations, especially from small percentages of known species, are likely to be highly uncertain. An alternative approach is to estimate all species, the known and unknown, directly. Using expert taxonomic knowledge of the species already described and named, those already discovered but not yet described and named, and those still awaiting discovery, we estimate there to be 830,000 (95% credible limits: 550,000-1,330,000) multi-cellular species on coral reefs worldwide, excluding fungi. Uncertainty surrounding this estimate and its components were often strongly skewed toward larger values, indicating that many more species on coral reefs is more plausible than many fewer. The uncertainties revealed here should guide future research toward achieving convergence in global species richness estimates for coral reefs and other ecosystems via adaptive learning protocols whereby such estimates can be tested and improved, and their uncertainties reduced, as new knowledge is acquired.

  13. 3D viscosity maps for Greenland and effect on GRACE mass balance estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Wal, Wouter; Xu, Zheng

    2016-04-01

    The GRACE satellite mission measures mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet. To correct for glacial isostatic adjustment numerical models are used. Although generally found to be a small signal, the full range of possible GIA models has not been explored yet. In particular, low viscosities due to a wet mantle and high temperatures due to the nearby Iceland hotspot could have a significant effect on GIA gravity rates. The goal of this study is to present a range of possible viscosity maps, and investigate the effect on GRACE mass balance estimates. Viscosity is derived using flow laws for olivine. Mantle temperature is computed from global seismology models, based on temperature derivatives for different mantle compositions. An indication for grain sizes is obtained by xenolith findings at a few locations. We also investigate the weakening effect of the presence of melt. To calculate gravity rates, we use a finite-element GIA model with the 3D viscosity maps and the ICE-5G loading history. GRACE mass balances for mascons in Greenland are derived with a least-squares inversion, using separate constraints for the inland and coastal areas in Greenland. Biases in the least-squares inversion are corrected using scale factors estimated from a simulation based on a surface mass balance model (Xu et al., submitted to The Cryosphere). Model results show enhanced gravity rates in the west and south of Greenland with 3D viscosity maps, compared to GIA models with 1D viscosity. The effect on regional mass balance is up to 5 Gt/year. Regional low viscosity can make present-day gravity rates sensitivity to ice thickness changes in the last decades. Therefore, an improved ice loading history for these time scales is needed.

  14. Global distribution of soil organic carbon - Part 1: Masses and frequency distributions of SOC stocks for the tropics, permafrost regions, wetlands, and the world

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Köchy, M.; Hiederer, R.; Freibauer, A.

    2015-04-01

    The global soil organic carbon (SOC) mass is relevant for the carbon cycle budget and thus atmospheric carbon concentrations. We review current estimates of SOC stocks and mass (stock × area) in wetlands, permafrost and tropical regions and the world in the upper 1 m of soil. The Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) v.1.2 provides one of the most recent and coherent global data sets of SOC, giving a total mass of 2476 Pg when using the original values for bulk density. Adjusting the HWSD's bulk density (BD) of soil high in organic carbon results in a mass of 1230 Pg, and additionally setting the BD of Histosols to 0.1 g cm-3 (typical of peat soils), results in a mass of 1062 Pg. The uncertainty in BD of Histosols alone introduces a range of -56 to +180 Pg C into the estimate of global SOC mass in the top 1 m, larger than estimates of global soil respiration. We report the spatial distribution of SOC stocks per 0.5 arcminutes; the areal masses of SOC; and the quantiles of SOC stocks by continents, wetland types, and permafrost types. Depending on the definition of "wetland", wetland soils contain between 82 and 158 Pg SOC. With more detailed estimates for permafrost from the Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database (496 Pg SOC) and tropical peatland carbon incorporated, global soils contain 1325 Pg SOC in the upper 1 m, including 421 Pg in tropical soils, whereof 40 Pg occurs in tropical wetlands. Global SOC amounts to just under 3000 Pg when estimates for deeper soil layers are included. Variability in estimates is due to variation in definitions of soil units, differences in soil property databases, scarcity of information about soil carbon at depths > 1 m in peatlands, and variation in definitions of "peatland".

  15. The global aerosol-cloud first indirect effect estimated using MODIS, MERRA, and AeroCom

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCoy, D. T.; Bender, F. A.-M.; Mohrmann, J. K. C.; Hartmann, D. L.; Wood, R.; Grosvenor, D. P.

    2017-02-01

    Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) represent a significant source of forcing uncertainty in global climate models (GCMs). Estimates of radiative forcing due to ACI in Fifth Assessment Report range from -0.5 to -2.5 W m-2. A portion of this uncertainty is related to the first indirect, or Twomey, effect whereby aerosols act as nuclei for cloud droplets to condense upon. At constant liquid water content this increases the number of cloud droplets (Nd) and thus increases the cloud albedo. In this study we use remote-sensing estimates of Nd within stratocumulus regions in combination with state-of-the-art aerosol reanalysis from Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA2) to diagnose how aerosols affect Nd. As in previous studies, Nd is related to sulfate mass through a power law relationship. The slope of the log-log relationship between Nd and SO4 in maritime stratocumulus is found to be 0.31, which is similar to the range of 0.2-0.8 from previous in situ studies and remote-sensing studies in the pristine Southern Ocean. Using preindustrial emissions models, the change in Nd between preindustrial and present day is estimated. Nd is inferred to have more than tripled in some regions. Cloud properties from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are used to estimate the radiative forcing due to this change in Nd. The Twomey effect operating in isolation is estimated to create a radiative forcing of -0.97 ± 0.23 W m-2 relative to the preindustrial era.

  16. Global fires after asteroid impact probably caused mass extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balcerak, Ernie

    2013-05-01

    About 66 million years ago, a mountain-sized asteroid hit what is now the Yucatan in Mexico at exactly the time of the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction. Evidence for the asteroid impact comes from sediments in the K-Pg boundary layer, but the details of the event, including what precisely caused the mass extinction, are still being debated.

  17. Zero-Point Calibration for AGN Black-Hole Mass Estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peterson, B. M.; Onken, C. A.

    2004-01-01

    We discuss the measurement and associated uncertainties of AGN reverberation-based black-hole masses, since these provide the zero-point calibration for scaling relationships that allow black-hole mass estimates for quasars. We find that reverberation-based mass estimates appear to be accurate to within a factor of about 3.

  18. On the nature of the variability in the Martian thermospheric mass density: Results from the Mars Global Surveyor Electron Reflectometer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    England, S.; Lillis, R. J.

    2011-12-01

    Knowledge of Mars' thermospheric mass density (~120--200 km altitude) is important for understanding the current state and evolution of the Martian atmosphere and for spacecraft such as the upcoming MAVEN mission that will fly through this region every orbit. Global-scale atmospheric models have been shown thus far to do an inconsistent job of matching mass density observations at these altitudes, especially on the nightside. Thus there is a clear need for a data-driven estimate of the mass density in this region. Given the wide range of conditions and locations over which these must be defined, the dataset of thermospheric mass densities derived from energy and angular distributions of super-thermal electrons measured by the MAG/ER experiment on Mars Global Surveyor, spanning 4 full Martian years, is an extremely valuable resource that can be used to enhance our prediction of these densities beyond what is given by such global-scale models. Here we present an empirical model of the thermospheric density structure based on the MAG/ER dataset. Using this new model, we assess the global-scale response of the thermosphere to dust storms in the lower atmosphere and show that this varies with latitude. Further, we examine the short- and longer-term variability of the thermospheric density and show that it exhibits a complex behavior with latitude and season that is indicative of both atmospheric conditions at lower altitudes and possible lower atmosphere wave sources.

  19. Data assimilation and driver estimation for the Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model using the Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morozov, Alexey V.; Ridley, Aaron J.; Bernstein, Dennis S.; Collins, Nancy; Hoar, Timothy J.; Anderson, Jeffrey L.

    2013-11-01

    This paper proposes a differential inflation scheme and applies this technique to driver estimation for the Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM) using the Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF), which is a part of the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). Driver estimation using EAKF is first demonstrated on a linear example and then applied to GITM. The Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) neutral mass density measurements are assimilated into a biased version of GITM, and the solar flux index, F10.7, is estimated. Although the estimate of F10.7 obtained using DART does not converge to the measured values, the converged values are shown to drive the GITM output close to CHAMP measurements. In order to prevent the ensemble spread from converging to zero, the state and driver estimates are inflated. In particular, the F10.7 estimate is inflated to have a constant variance. It is shown that EAKF with differential inflation reduces the model bias from 73% down to 7% along the CHAMP satellite path when compared to the biased GITM output obtained without using data assimilation. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) density measurements are used to validate the data assimilation performance at locations different from measurement locations. It is shown that the bias at GRACE locations is decreased from 76% down to 52% as compared to not using data assimilation, showing that model estimation of the thermosphere is improved globally.

  20. Global Intercomparison of 12 Land Surface Heat Flux Estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jimenez, C.; Prigent, C.; Mueller, B.; Seneviratne, S. I.; McCabe, M. F.; Wood, E. F.; Rossow, W. B.; Balsamo, G.; Betts, A. K.; Dirmeyer, P. A.; Fisher, J. B.; Jung, M.; Kanamitsu, M.; Reichle, R. H.; Reichstein, M.; Rodell, M.; Sheffield, J.; Tu, K.; Wang, K.

    2011-01-01

    A global intercomparison of 12 monthly mean land surface heat flux products for the period 1993-1995 is presented. The intercomparison includes some of the first emerging global satellite-based products (developed at Paris Observatory, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, University of California Berkeley, University of Maryland, and Princeton University) and examples of fluxes produced by reanalyses (ERA-Interim, MERRA, NCEP-DOE) and off-line land surface models (GSWP-2, GLDAS CLM/ Mosaic/Noah). An intercomparison of the global latent heat flux (Q(sub le)) annual means shows a spread of approx 20 W/sq m (all-product global average of approx 45 W/sq m). A similar spread is observed for the sensible (Q(sub h)) and net radiative (R(sub n)) fluxes. In general, the products correlate well with each other, helped by the large seasonal variability and common forcing data for some of the products. Expected spatial distributions related to the major climatic regimes and geographical features are reproduced by all products. Nevertheless, large Q(sub le)and Q(sub h) absolute differences are also observed. The fluxes were spatially averaged for 10 vegetation classes. The larger Q(sub le) differences were observed for the rain forest but, when normalized by mean fluxes, the differences were comparable to other classes. In general, the correlations between Q(sub le) and R(sub n) were higher for the satellite-based products compared with the reanalyses and off-line models. The fluxes were also averaged for 10 selected basins. The seasonality was generally well captured by all products, but large differences in the flux partitioning were observed for some products and basins.

  1. Strategies for rapid global earthquake impact estimation: the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, D.J.

    2013-01-01

    This chapter summarizes the state-of-the-art for rapid earthquake impact estimation. It details the needs and challenges associated with quick estimation of earthquake losses following global earthquakes, and provides a brief literature review of various approaches that have been used in the past. With this background, the chapter introduces the operational earthquake loss estimation system developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) known as PAGER (for Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response). It also details some of the ongoing developments of PAGER’s loss estimation models to better supplement the operational empirical models, and to produce value-added web content for a variety of PAGER users.

  2. The initial mass function and global rates of mass, momentum, and energy input to the interstellar medium via stellar winds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Van Buren, D.

    1985-01-01

    Published observational data are compiled and analyzed, using theoretical stellar-evolution models to determine the global rates of mass, momentum, and energy injected into the interstellar medium (ISM) by stellar winds. Expressions derived include psi = 0.00054 x (M to the -1.03) stars formed/sq kpc yr log M (where M is the initial mass function in solar mass units) and mass-loss = (2 x 10 to the -13th) x (L to the 1.25) solar mass/yr (with L in solar luminosity units). It is found that the wind/supernova injection of energy into the ISM and the mass loss from stars of 5 solar mass or more are approximately balanced by the dissipation of energy by cloud-cloud collisions and the formation of stars, respectively.

  3. Estimating the Period and Q of the Chandler Wobble from mass variations.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nastula, Jolanta; Gross, Richard

    2013-04-01

    The free Chandler wobble is the largest component of the observed polar motion. The period of the Chandler wobble and quality factor Q depend on the internal structure and rheology of the Earth. There is quite good agreement in empirical determination and theoretical estimations of the Chandler wobble period but there is still large dispersions of the Q values. One of the methods to assess the value of the period and Q of the Chandler wobble is to determine those values that minimize the power within the Chandler band of the difference between observed and modeled polar motion excitation. Modeling of the polar motion excitation requires information on geophysical fluids distribution. Only recent investigations using atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological excitation computed for the period spanning from 1962 to 2010 shown the value of Q is about 111. Here we estimate the period and Q of the Chandler values on the basis of that method using direct observations of the excitation caused by mass variations as determined from approximately 25 years of SLR data from five geodetic satellites and from GRACE time varying gravitational field. Atmosphere, ocean, and hydrology models are also used to model the excitation caused by both mass and motion variations within these global geophysical fluids.

  4. Estimation of Subdaily Polar Motion with the Global Positioning System During the Spoch '92 Campaign

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ibanez-Meier, R.; Freedman, A. P.; Herring, T. A.; Gross, R. S.; Lichten, S. M.; Lindqwister, U. J.

    1994-01-01

    Data collected over six days from a worldwide Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking network during the Epoch '92 campaign are used to estimate variations of the Earth's pole position every 30 minutes.

  5. Uncertainty Estimation of Global Precipitation Measurement through Objective Validation Strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    KIM, H.; Utsumi, N.; Seto, S.; Oki, T.

    2014-12-01

    Since Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has been launched in 1997 as the first satellite mission dedicated to measuring precipitation, the spatiotemporal gaps of precipitation observation have been filled significantly. On February 27th, 2014, Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) satellite has been launched as a core observatory of Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), an international multi-satellite mission aiming to provide the global three hourly map of rainfall and snowfall. In addition to Ku-band, Ka-band radar is newly equipped, and their combination is expected to introduce higher precision than the precipitation measurement of TRMM/PR. In this study, the GPM level-2 orbit products are evaluated comparing to various precipitation observations which include TRMM/PR, in-situ data, and ground radar. In the preliminary validation over intercross orbits of DPR and TRMM, Ku-band measurements in both satellites shows very close spatial pattern and intensity, and the DPR is capable to capture broader range of precipitation intensity than of the TRMM. Furthermore, we suggest a validation strategy based on 'objective classification' of background atmospheric mechanisms. The Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) and auxiliary datasets (e.g., tropical cyclone best track) is used to objectively determine the types of precipitation. Uncertainty of abovementioned precipitation products is quantified as their relative differences and characterized for different precipitation mechanism. Also, it is discussed how the uncertainty affects the synthesis of TRMM and GPM for a long-term satellite precipitation observation records which is internally consistent.

  6. Supermassive Black Hole Masses and Global Properties of Disk Galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castillo, Y. S.; Funes, J. G.; Díaz, R. J.

    2006-06-01

    Different scaling laws are known for the mass of supermassive black holes (M_{BH}): M_{BH}-σ M_{BH}-M_{Bulge}; M_{BH}-M_{DM}. We have reviewed these correlations for 17 disk galaxies and tried to find any correlation between M_{BH} and other disk properties (HI and H_2 masses, far infrared luminosity, star formation rate, etc.). The sample was taken from Marconi and Hunt (2003). For these galaxies we have done a search in the literature for the following properties: A) in the nucleus: star formation rates, and luminosities in Hα ; B) in the bulge: luminosity in B-band; C) in the disk: HI and H_2 total masses, total luminosities in X-ray, B band and far infrared, and total star formation rate. In this work we present the compiled data from the literature and the plots of M_{BH} against galaxy HI total mass, M_{BH} against galaxy H_2 total mass, and M_{BH} against disk blue luminosity. We did not find any evident correlation between the M_{BH} and the properties of the disk.

  7. Similar negative impacts of temperature on global wheat yield estimated by three independent methods

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global wheat production has recently been assessed with different methods, scaling and aggregation approaches. Here we show that grid-based simulations, point-based simulations, and statistical regressions produce similar estimates of temperature ...

  8. Estimated global exportations of Zika virus infections via travellers from Brazil from 2014 to 2015.

    PubMed

    Quam, Mikkel B; Wilder-Smith, Annelies

    2016-06-01

    The ongoing Zika pandemic in Latin America illustrates a potential source for further globalized spread. Here, we assessed global travel-related Zika virus exportations from Brazil during the initial year of the epidemic. Similar to subsequent national notifications, we estimated 584-1786 exported Zika cases from Brazil occurred September 2014-August 2015.

  9. Non-Tidal Non-Seasonal Oceanic Mass Redistribution Estimated from the TOPEX/Poseidon Observation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chao, Benjamin F.; Au, A. Y.; Chen, Jian-Li; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Topex/Poseidon altimetry data are used to estimate the non-tidal mass redistribution as a function of space-time. The goal is to study the contribution of ocean circulations in the geodynamic effects including Earth's rotational and gravitational variations. We examine the non-seasonal anomalies at monthly sampling rate over the T/P span of eight years, concentrating especially on interannual variabilities. Since the sea-surface height data obtained from altimetry is the combined effect of steric change (primarily thermal effect) and the mass flux, and because the former has zero contribution to the geodynamic effects, one needs to do a so-called steric correction by removing from the altimetry data the steric contributions. We achieve it using multiyear monthly sea-surface temperature maps, together with monthly "climatology" for mixed-layer depth maps for mean-months of the year. We analyze both sets of the altimetry data and the steric correction data using the empirical orthogonal function/principal component analysis (in which we take care of issues associated with the area-weighting and non-zero mean), and examine the most important modes, either globally or regionally. In particular, the ENSO in the tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans exhibits the most prominent pattern. The net mass transport after the steric correction can then be compared with: (1) ocean general circulation model outputs for the same period of time (such as from POCM-4B); (2) non-atmospheric Earth rotation variations obtained from space geodesy data and atmospheric angular momentum data; (3) non-atmospheric low-degree gravitational variations from satellite-laser-ranging observations and global atmospheric data.

  10. Estimation of global network statistics from incomplete data.

    PubMed

    Bliss, Catherine A; Danforth, Christopher M; Dodds, Peter Sheridan

    2014-01-01

    Complex networks underlie an enormous variety of social, biological, physical, and virtual systems. A profound complication for the science of complex networks is that in most cases, observing all nodes and all network interactions is impossible. Previous work addressing the impacts of partial network data is surprisingly limited, focuses primarily on missing nodes, and suggests that network statistics derived from subsampled data are not suitable estimators for the same network statistics describing the overall network topology. We generate scaling methods to predict true network statistics, including the degree distribution, from only partial knowledge of nodes, links, or weights. Our methods are transparent and do not assume a known generating process for the network, thus enabling prediction of network statistics for a wide variety of applications. We validate analytical results on four simulated network classes and empirical data sets of various sizes. We perform subsampling experiments by varying proportions of sampled data and demonstrate that our scaling methods can provide very good estimates of true network statistics while acknowledging limits. Lastly, we apply our techniques to a set of rich and evolving large-scale social networks, Twitter reply networks. Based on 100 million tweets, we use our scaling techniques to propose a statistical characterization of the Twitter Interactome from September 2008 to November 2008. Our treatment allows us to find support for Dunbar's hypothesis in detecting an upper threshold for the number of active social contacts that individuals maintain over the course of one week.

  11. On the nature of the variability of the Martian thermospheric mass density: Results from electron reflectometry with Mars Global Surveyor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    England, Scott L.; Lillis, Robert J.

    2012-02-01

    Knowledge of Mars' thermospheric mass density is important for understanding the current state and evolution of the Martian atmosphere, and for spacecraft such as the upcoming MAVEN mission that will fly through this region on every orbit. Global-scale atmospheric models have been shown thus far to do an inconsistent job of matching the mass density observations at these altitudes, especially on the nightside. Thus, there is a clear need for a data-driven estimate of the mass density in this region. Given the wide range of conditions and locations over which this must be defined, the data set of thermospheric mass densities derived from energy and angular distributions of super-thermal electrons measured by the MAG/ER experiment on Mars Global Surveyor, spanning 4 full Martian years, is an extremely valuable resource. Here we present an empirical model of the thermospheric density structure of this data set. Using this new model, we assess the global-scale response of the thermosphere to dust storms in the lower atmosphere and show that this varies with both latitude and dust opacity. Further, we examine the short-term variability of the thermospheric density and show that it exhibits a repeatable behavior with latitude and season that is indicative of atmospheric wave activity seen in the lower thermosphere. This short-term variability is consistently highest in the southern hemisphere, peaking around perihelion, which may have significant implications for studies of atmospheric escape.

  12. Anthropogenic CO2 estimates in the Southern Ocean: Storage partitioning in the different water masses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pardo, Paula C.; Pérez, F. F.; Khatiwala, S.; Ríos, A. F.

    2014-01-01

    The role of the Southern Ocean (SO) remains a key issue in our understanding of the global carbon cycle and for predicting future climate change. A number of recent studies suggest that 30 to 40% of ocean uptake of anthropogenic carbon (CANT) occurs in the SO, accompanied by highly efficient transport of CANT by intermediate-depth waters out of that region. In contrast, storage of CANT in deep and bottom layers is still an open question. Significant discrepancies can be found between results from several indirect techniques and ocean models. Even though reference methodologies state that CANT concentrations in deep and bottom layers of the SO are negligible, recent results from tracer-based methods and ocean models as well as accurate measurements of 39Ar, CCl4 and CFCs along the continental slope and in the Antarctic deep and bottom waters contradict this conclusion. The role of the SO in the uptake, storage and transport of CANT has proved to be really important for the global ocean and there is a need for agreement between the different techniques. A CO2-data-based ("back-calculation") method, the CT0 method, was developed with the aim of obtaining more accurate CANT concentration and inventory estimates in the SO region (south of 45°S). Data from the GLODAP (Global Ocean Data Analysis Project) and CARINA databases were used. The CT0 method tries to reduce at least two of the main caveats attributed to the back-calculation methods: the need for a better definition of water mass mixing and, most importantly, the unsteady state of the air-sea CO2 disequilibrium (ΔCdis) term. Water mass mixing was computed on the basis of results from an extended Optimum Multi-Parametric (eOMP) analysis applied to the main water masses of the SO. Recently published parameterizations were used to obtain more reliable values of ΔCdis and also of preformed alkalinity. The variability of the ΔCdis term (δCdis) was approximated using results from an ocean carbon cycle model

  13. Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) Model: A New Method for Estimating the Global Dietary Supply of Nutrients.

    PubMed

    Smith, Matthew R; Micha, Renata; Golden, Christopher D; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Myers, Samuel S

    2016-01-01

    Insufficient data exist for accurate estimation of global nutrient supplies. Commonly used global datasets contain key weaknesses: 1) data with global coverage, such as the FAO food balance sheets, lack specific information about many individual foods and no information on micronutrient supplies nor heterogeneity among subnational populations, while 2) household surveys provide a closer approximation of consumption, but are often not nationally representative, do not commonly capture many foods consumed outside of the home, and only provide adequate information for a few select populations. Here, we attempt to improve upon these datasets by constructing a new model--the Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) model--to estimate nutrient availabilities for 23 individual nutrients across 225 food categories for thirty-four age-sex groups in nearly all countries. Furthermore, the model provides historical trends in dietary nutritional supplies at the national level using data from 1961-2011. We determine supplies of edible food by expanding the food balance sheet data using FAO production and trade data to increase food supply estimates from 98 to 221 food groups, and then estimate the proportion of major cereals being processed to flours to increase to 225. Next, we estimate intake among twenty-six demographic groups (ages 20+, both sexes) in each country by using data taken from the Global Dietary Database, which uses nationally representative surveys to relate national averages of food consumption to individual age and sex-groups; for children and adolescents where GDD data does not yet exist, average calorie-adjusted amounts are assumed. Finally, we match food supplies with nutrient densities from regional food composition tables to estimate nutrient supplies, running Monte Carlo simulations to find the range of potential nutrient supplies provided by the diet. To validate our new method, we compare the GENuS estimates of nutrient supplies against independent

  14. Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) Model: A New Method for Estimating the Global Dietary Supply of Nutrients

    PubMed Central

    Golden, Christopher D.; Mozaffarian, Dariush

    2016-01-01

    Insufficient data exist for accurate estimation of global nutrient supplies. Commonly used global datasets contain key weaknesses: 1) data with global coverage, such as the FAO food balance sheets, lack specific information about many individual foods and no information on micronutrient supplies nor heterogeneity among subnational populations, while 2) household surveys provide a closer approximation of consumption, but are often not nationally representative, do not commonly capture many foods consumed outside of the home, and only provide adequate information for a few select populations. Here, we attempt to improve upon these datasets by constructing a new model—the Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) model—to estimate nutrient availabilities for 23 individual nutrients across 225 food categories for thirty-four age-sex groups in nearly all countries. Furthermore, the model provides historical trends in dietary nutritional supplies at the national level using data from 1961–2011. We determine supplies of edible food by expanding the food balance sheet data using FAO production and trade data to increase food supply estimates from 98 to 221 food groups, and then estimate the proportion of major cereals being processed to flours to increase to 225. Next, we estimate intake among twenty-six demographic groups (ages 20+, both sexes) in each country by using data taken from the Global Dietary Database, which uses nationally representative surveys to relate national averages of food consumption to individual age and sex-groups; for children and adolescents where GDD data does not yet exist, average calorie-adjusted amounts are assumed. Finally, we match food supplies with nutrient densities from regional food composition tables to estimate nutrient supplies, running Monte Carlo simulations to find the range of potential nutrient supplies provided by the diet. To validate our new method, we compare the GENuS estimates of nutrient supplies against independent

  15. Sensitivity of Simulated Global Ocean Carbon Flux Estimates to Forcing by Reanalysis Products

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gregg, Watson W.; Casey, Nancy W.; Rousseaux, Cecile S.

    2015-01-01

    Reanalysis products from MERRA, NCEP2, NCEP1, and ECMWF were used to force an established ocean biogeochemical model to estimate air-sea carbon fluxes (FCO2) and partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) in the global oceans. Global air-sea carbon fluxes and pCO2 were relatively insensitive to the choice of forcing reanalysis. All global FCO2 estimates from the model forced by the four different reanalyses were within 20% of in situ estimates (MERRA and NCEP1 were within 7%), and all models exhibited statistically significant positive correlations with in situ estimates across the 12 major oceanographic basins. Global pCO2 estimates were within 1% of in situ estimates with ECMWF being the outlier at 0.6%. Basin correlations were similar to FCO2. There were, however, substantial departures among basin estimates from the different reanalysis forcings. The high latitudes and tropics had the largest ranges in estimated fluxes among the reanalyses. Regional pCO2 differences among the reanalysis forcings were muted relative to the FCO2 results. No individual reanalysis was uniformly better or worse in the major oceanographic basins. The results provide information on the characterization of uncertainty in ocean carbon models due to choice of reanalysis forcing.

  16. Global surface density of water mass variations by using a two-step inversion by cumulating daily satellite gravity information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramillien, Guillaume; Frappart, Frédéric; Seoane, Lucia

    2016-04-01

    We propose a new method to produce time series of global maps of surface mass variations by progressive integration of daily geopotential variations measured by orbiting satellites. In the case of the GRACE mission, these geopotential variations can be determined from very accurate inter-satellite K-Band Range Rate (KBRR) measurements of 5-second daily orbits. In particular, the along-track gravity contribution of hydrological mass changes is extracted by removing de-aliasing models for static field, atmosphere, oceans mass variations (including periodical tides), as well as polar movements. Our determination of surface mass sources is composed of two successive dependent Kalman filter stages. The first one consists of reducing the satellite-based potential anomalies by adjusting the longest spatial wavelengths (i.e., low-degree spherical harmonics lower than 2). In the second stage, the residual potential anomalies from the previous stage are used to recover surface mass density changes - in terms of Equivalent-Water Height (EWH) - over a global network of juxtaposed triangular elements. These surface tiles of ~100,000 km x km (or equivalently 330 km by 330 km) are defined to be of equal areas over the terrestrial sphere. However they can be adapted to the local geometry of the surface mass. Our global approach was tested by inverting geopotential data, and successfully applied to estimate time-varying surface mass densities from real GRACE-based residuals. This strategy of combined Kalman filter-type inversions can also be useful for exploring the possibility of improving time and space resolutions for ocean and land studies that would be hopefully brought by future low altitude geodetic missions.

  17. Estimation of the global average temperature with optimally weighted point gauges

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hardin, James W.; Upson, Robert B.

    1993-01-01

    This paper considers the minimum mean squared error (MSE) incurred in estimating an idealized Earth's global average temperature with a finite network of point gauges located over the globe. We follow the spectral MSE formalism given by North et al. (1992) and derive the optimal weights for N gauges in the problem of estimating the Earth's global average temperature. Our results suggest that for commonly used configurations the variance of the estimate due to sampling error can be reduced by as much as 50%.

  18. Global mean estimation using a self-organizing dual-zoning method for preferential sampling.

    PubMed

    Pan, Yuchun; Ren, Xuhong; Gao, Bingbo; Liu, Yu; Gao, YunBing; Hao, Xingyao; Chen, Ziyue

    2015-03-01

    Giving an appropriate weight to each sampling point is essential to global mean estimation. The objective of this paper was to develop a global mean estimation method with preferential samples. The procedure for this estimation method was to first zone the study area based on self-organizing dual-zoning method and then to estimate the mean according to stratified sampling method. In this method, spreading of points in both feature and geographical space is considered. The method is tested in a case study on the metal Mn concentrations in Jilin provinces of China. Six sample patterns are selected to estimate the global mean and compared with the global mean calculated by direct arithmetic mean method, polygon method, and cell method. The results show that the proposed method produces more accurate and stable mean estimates under different feature deviation index (FDI) values and sample sizes. The relative errors of the global mean calculated by the proposed method are from 0.14 to 1.47 % and they are the largest (4.83-8.84 %) by direct arithmetic mean method. At the same time, the mean results calculated by the other three methods are sensitive to the FDI values and sample sizes.

  19. Ionospheric Slant Total Electron Content Analysis Using Global Positioning System Based Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sparks, Lawrence C. (Inventor); Mannucci, Anthony J. (Inventor); Komjathy, Attila (Inventor)

    2017-01-01

    A method, system, apparatus, and computer program product provide the ability to analyze ionospheric slant total electron content (TEC) using global navigation satellite systems (GNSS)-based estimation. Slant TEC is estimated for a given set of raypath geometries by fitting historical GNSS data to a specified delay model. The accuracy of the specified delay model is estimated by computing delay estimate residuals and plotting a behavior of the delay estimate residuals. An ionospheric threat model is computed based on the specified delay model. Ionospheric grid delays (IGDs) and grid ionospheric vertical errors (GIVEs) are computed based on the ionospheric threat model.

  20. Estimating the Global Clinical Burden of Plasmodium falciparum Malaria in 2007

    PubMed Central

    Hay, Simon I.; Okiro, Emelda A.; Gething, Peter W.; Patil, Anand P.; Tatem, Andrew J.; Guerra, Carlos A.; Snow, Robert W.

    2010-01-01

    Background The epidemiology of malaria makes surveillance-based methods of estimating its disease burden problematic. Cartographic approaches have provided alternative malaria burden estimates, but there remains widespread misunderstanding about their derivation and fidelity. The aims of this study are to present a new cartographic technique and its application for deriving global clinical burden estimates of Plasmodium falciparum malaria for 2007, and to compare these estimates and their likely precision with those derived under existing surveillance-based approaches. Methods and Findings In seven of the 87 countries endemic for P. falciparum malaria, the health reporting infrastructure was deemed sufficiently rigorous for case reports to be used verbatim. In the remaining countries, the mapped extent of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria transmission was first determined. Estimates of the plausible incidence range of clinical cases were then calculated within the spatial limits of unstable transmission. A modelled relationship between clinical incidence and prevalence was used, together with new maps of P. falciparum malaria endemicity, to estimate incidence in areas of stable transmission, and geostatistical joint simulation was used to quantify uncertainty in these estimates at national, regional, and global scales. Combining these estimates for all areas of transmission risk resulted in 451 million (95% credible interval 349–552 million) clinical cases of P. falciparum malaria in 2007. Almost all of this burden of morbidity occurred in areas of stable transmission. More than half of all estimated P. falciparum clinical cases and associated uncertainty occurred in India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Myanmar (Burma), where 1.405 billion people are at risk. Recent surveillance-based methods of burden estimation were then reviewed and discrepancies in national estimates explored. When these cartographically derived national

  1. Anthropogenic CO2 estimates in the Southern Ocean: storage partitioning in the different water masses.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pardo, P. C.; Pérez, F. F.; Velo, A.; Khatiwala, S.,; Ríos, A. F.

    2012-04-01

    One of the key issues in understanding the global carbon cycle and predicting future climate change is determining the role of the Southern Ocean (SO). Approximately, more than one third of the global anthropogenic CO2 (CANT) uptake occurs in the SO (18% of the global ocean area), where the coldest source waters involved in the meridional counterclockwise overturning circulation are formed. Nevertheless, the distributions of CANT in the SO obtained from models and data-based methods present huge differences. Little storage of CANT has usually been associated with Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) which is in contradiction with significant concentrations of CFCs observed along the continental slope and in Antarctic deep and bottom waters. The lack of accurate ocean carbon measurements could be the cause for hampering more exact CANT estimates. Besides, there is compelling evidence that sinking and ventilation in the SO is not only associated to the AABW but also to various less dense Antarctic waters located at intermediate and deep levels of the water column. In this study, data south of 45° S were chosen from GLODAP (http://cdiac.ornl.gov/oceans/glodap/Glodap_home.htm) and CARINA (http://store.pangaea.de/Projects/CARBOOCEAN/carina/index.htm) project databases (n=82792) in order to estimate CANT through different data-based methods. These methods go from the classical back-calculation methods (ΔC* and improved new ones taking into account the variability in the CO2 air-sea disequilibrium term) to TTD and TROCA methods. Results from an eOMP together with a volumetric census of the water masses within the SO serve as base for partitioning CANT storages in the more representative water masses of the SO. Thus, South Mode Water and Antarctic Intermediate Water account for the CANT storage in intermediate layers while North Atlantic Deep Waters and Circumpolar Deep Water are responsible for injecting CANT at deep layers. The contributions of AABW and Shelf Waters to the

  2. Estimation of the accuracy of methods for determining component masses for low-mass X-ray binary systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antokhina, E. A.; Petrov, V. S.; Cherepashchuk, A. M.

    2017-01-01

    Modern modeling of the population of low-mass X-ray binary systems containing black holes applying standard assumptions leads to a lack of agreement between the modeled and observed mass distributions for the optical components, with the observed masses being lower. This makes the task of estimating the systematic errors in the derived component masses due to imperfect models relevant. To estimate the influence of systematic errors in the derived masses of stars in X-ray binary systems, we considered two approximations for the tidally deformed star in a Roche model. Approximating the star as a sphere with a volume equal to that of the Roche lobe leads to slight overestimation of the equatorial rotational velocity V rot sin i, and hence to slight underestimation of the mass ratio q = M x / M v . Approximating the star as a flat, circular disk with constant local line profiles and a linear limb-darkening law (a classical rotational broadeningmodel) is an appreciably cruder approach, and leads to overestimation of V rot sin i by about 20%. In the case of high values of q = M x / M v , this approximation leads to substantial underestimation of the mass ratio q, which can reach several tens of percent. The mass of the optical star is overestimated by a factor of 1.5 in this case, while the mass of the black hole is changed only slightly. Since most estimates of component mass ratios for X-ray binary systems are carried out using a classical rotational broadening model for the lines, this leads to the need for appreciable corrections to (reductions of) previously published masses for the optical stars, which enhances the contradiction with the standard evolutionary scenario for low-mass X-ray binaries containing black holes.

  3. SPARTAN: a global network to evaluate and enhance satellite-based estimates of ground-level particulate matter for global health applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snider, G.; Weagle, C. L.; Martin, R. V.; van Donkelaar, A.; Conrad, K.; Cunningham, D.; Gordon, C.; Zwicker, M.; Akoshile, C.; Artaxo, P.; Anh, N. X.; Brook, J.; Dong, J.; Garland, R. M.; Greenwald, R.; Griffith, D.; He, K.; Holben, B. N.; Kahn, R.; Koren, I.; Lagrosas, N.; Lestari, P.; Ma, Z.; Vanderlei Martins, J.; Quel, E. J.; Rudich, Y.; Salam, A.; Tripathi, S. N.; Yu, C.; Zhang, Q.; Zhang, Y.; Brauer, M.; Cohen, A.; Gibson, M. D.; Liu, Y.

    2015-01-01

    Ground-based observations have insufficient spatial coverage to assess long-term human exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) at the global scale. Satellite remote sensing offers a promising approach to provide information on both short- and long-term exposure to PM2.5 at local-to-global scales, but there are limitations and outstanding questions about the accuracy and precision with which ground-level aerosol mass concentrations can be inferred from satellite remote sensing alone. A key source of uncertainty is the global distribution of the relationship between annual average PM2.5 and discontinuous satellite observations of columnar aerosol optical depth (AOD). We have initiated a global network of ground-level monitoring stations designed to evaluate and enhance satellite remote sensing estimates for application in health-effects research and risk assessment. This Surface PARTiculate mAtter Network (SPARTAN) includes a global federation of ground-level monitors of hourly PM2.5 situated primarily in highly populated regions and collocated with existing ground-based sun photometers that measure AOD. The instruments, a three-wavelength nephelometer and impaction filter sampler for both PM2.5 and PM10, are highly autonomous. Hourly PM2.5 concentrations are inferred from the combination of weighed filters and nephelometer data. Data from existing networks were used to develop and evaluate network sampling characteristics. SPARTAN filters are analyzed for mass, black carbon, water-soluble ions, and metals. These measurements provide, in a variety of regions around the world, the key data required to evaluate and enhance satellite-based PM2.5 estimates used for assessing the health effects of aerosols. Mean PM2.5 concentrations across sites vary by more than 1 order of magnitude. Our initial measurements indicate that the ratio of AOD to ground-level PM2.5 is driven temporally and spatially by the vertical profile in aerosol scattering. Spatially this ratio is

  4. Skeletal correlates for body mass estimation in modern and fossil flying birds.

    PubMed

    Field, Daniel J; Lynner, Colton; Brown, Christian; Darroch, Simon A F

    2013-01-01

    Scaling relationships between skeletal dimensions and body mass in extant birds are often used to estimate body mass in fossil crown-group birds, as well as in stem-group avialans. However, useful statistical measurements for constraining the precision and accuracy of fossil mass estimates are rarely provided, which prevents the quantification of robust upper and lower bound body mass estimates for fossils. Here, we generate thirteen body mass correlations and associated measures of statistical robustness using a sample of 863 extant flying birds. By providing robust body mass regressions with upper- and lower-bound prediction intervals for individual skeletal elements, we address the longstanding problem of body mass estimation for highly fragmentary fossil birds. We demonstrate that the most precise proxy for estimating body mass in the overall dataset, measured both as coefficient determination of ordinary least squares regression and percent prediction error, is the maximum diameter of the coracoid's humeral articulation facet (the glenoid). We further demonstrate that this result is consistent among the majority of investigated avian orders (10 out of 18). As a result, we suggest that, in the majority of cases, this proxy may provide the most accurate estimates of body mass for volant fossil birds. Additionally, by presenting statistical measurements of body mass prediction error for thirteen different body mass regressions, this study provides a much-needed quantitative framework for the accurate estimation of body mass and associated ecological correlates in fossil birds. The application of these regressions will enhance the precision and robustness of many mass-based inferences in future paleornithological studies.

  5. Skeletal Correlates for Body Mass Estimation in Modern and Fossil Flying Birds

    PubMed Central

    Field, Daniel J.; Lynner, Colton; Brown, Christian; Darroch, Simon A. F.

    2013-01-01

    Scaling relationships between skeletal dimensions and body mass in extant birds are often used to estimate body mass in fossil crown-group birds, as well as in stem-group avialans. However, useful statistical measurements for constraining the precision and accuracy of fossil mass estimates are rarely provided, which prevents the quantification of robust upper and lower bound body mass estimates for fossils. Here, we generate thirteen body mass correlations and associated measures of statistical robustness using a sample of 863 extant flying birds. By providing robust body mass regressions with upper- and lower-bound prediction intervals for individual skeletal elements, we address the longstanding problem of body mass estimation for highly fragmentary fossil birds. We demonstrate that the most precise proxy for estimating body mass in the overall dataset, measured both as coefficient determination of ordinary least squares regression and percent prediction error, is the maximum diameter of the coracoid’s humeral articulation facet (the glenoid). We further demonstrate that this result is consistent among the majority of investigated avian orders (10 out of 18). As a result, we suggest that, in the majority of cases, this proxy may provide the most accurate estimates of body mass for volant fossil birds. Additionally, by presenting statistical measurements of body mass prediction error for thirteen different body mass regressions, this study provides a much-needed quantitative framework for the accurate estimation of body mass and associated ecological correlates in fossil birds. The application of these regressions will enhance the precision and robustness of many mass-based inferences in future paleornithological studies. PMID:24312392

  6. Assessing global dietary habits: a comparison of national estimates from the FAO and the Global Dietary Database1234

    PubMed Central

    Del Gobbo, Liana C; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Imamura, Fumiaki; Micha, Renata; Shi, Peilin; Smith, Matthew; Myers, Samuel S; Mozaffarian, Dariush

    2015-01-01

    Background: Accurate data on dietary habits are crucial for understanding impacts on disease and informing policy priorities. Nation-specific food balance sheets from the United Nations FAO provided the only available global dietary estimates but with uncertain validity. Objectives: We investigated how FAO estimates compared with nationally representative, individual-based dietary surveys from the Global Dietary Database (GDD) and developed calibration equations to improve the validity of FAO data to estimate dietary intakes. Design: FAO estimates were matched to GDD data for 113 countries across the following 9 major dietary metrics for 30 y of data (1980–2009): fruit, vegetables, beans and legumes, nuts and seeds, whole grains, red and processed meats, fish and seafood, milk, and total energy. Both absolute and percentage differences in FAO and GDD mean estimates were evaluated. Linear regression was used to evaluate whether FAO estimates predicted GDD dietary intakes and whether this prediction varied according to age, sex, region, and time. Calibration equations were developed to adjust FAO estimates to approximate national dietary surveys validated by using randomly split data sets. Results: For most food groups, FAO estimates substantially overestimated individual-based dietary intakes by 74.5% (vegetables) and 270% (whole grains) while underestimating beans and legumes (−50%) and nuts and seeds (−29%) (P < 0.05 for each). In multivariate regressions, these overestimations and underestimations for each dietary factor further varied by age, sex, region, and time (P < 0.001 for each). Split–data set calibration models, which accounted for country-level covariates and other sources of heterogeneity, effectively adjusted FAO estimates to approximate estimates from national survey data (r = 0.47–0.80) with small SEs of prediction (generally 1–5 g/d). Conclusions: For all food groups and total energy, FAO estimates substantially exceeded or

  7. A Simple Estimate of the Mass of the Positron.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jones, Goronwy Tudor

    1993-01-01

    Discusses a small part of the final state of a high-energy neutrino interaction: a head-on collision of a positron and a stationary electron. Provides a bubble chamber picture and describes the resulting particle effects. Uses momentum to determine the mass of the positron. (MVL)

  8. Estimates of Regional Equilibrium Line Altitudes and Net Mass Balance from MODIS Imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shea, J. M.; Menounos, B.; Moore, R. D.

    2011-12-01

    Glacier mass balance is a key variable used to assess the health of glaciers and ice sheets. Estimates of glacier mass balance are required to model the dynamic response of glaciers and ice sheets to climate change, estimate sea-level contribution from surface melt, and document the response of glaciers to climate forcing. Annually resolved estimates of regional mass balance for mountain ranges is often inferred from a sparse network of ground-based measurements of mass balance for individual glaciers. Given that net mass balance is highly correlated with the annual equilibrium line altitude (ELA), we develop an automated approach to estimate the ELA, and by inference net mass balance, on large glaciers and icefields using MODIS 250 m imagery (MOD02QKM). We discriminate areas of bare ice and snow/firn using the product of MODIS' red (0.620 - 0.670 μ m) and near infrared (0.841 - 0.876 μ m) bands. To assess the skill in estimating glacier ELAs, we compare ELAs derived from (1) manual delineation and (2) unsupervised classification of the band product to ground-based observations of ELA and net mass balance at seven long term mass-balance monitoring sites in western North America (Gulkana, Wolverine, Lemon Creek, Taku, Place, Peyto, and South Cascade). Spatial and temporal variations in MODIS-derived ELAs provide an opportunity to validate regional mass-balance models, estimate surface melt contributions to sea-level rise, and examine the cryospheric response to climate change.

  9. Global surface mass time variations by using a two-step inversion for cumulating daily satellite gravity information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramillien, Guillaume; Frappart, Frappart; Seoane, Lucia

    2015-04-01

    We propose a new method to produce time series of global maps of surface mass variations by progressive integration of daily geopotential variations measured by orbiting satellites. In the case of the GRACE mission (2002 - 2012), these geopotential variations can be determined from very accurate inter-satellite K-Band Range Rate (KBRR) measurements of 5-second daily orbits. In particular, the along-track gravity contribution of hydrology is extracted by removing de-aliasing models for static field, atmosphere, oceans mass variations (including periodical tides), as well as polar movements. Our determination of surface mass sources consists of two successive dependent Kalman filter stages. The first one consists of reducing the satellite-based potential anomalies by adjusting the longest spatial wavelengths (i.e., low-degree spherical harmonics less than 5-6). In the second stage, the residual potential anomalies from the previous stage are used to recover surface mass density changes - in terms of Equivalent-Water Height (EWH) - over a global network of juxtaposed triangular elements. These surface tiles of ~40,000 km x km are imposed to be identical and homogeneously-distributed over the terrestrial sphere, however they can be adapted to the local geometry of the surface mass. Our global approach was tested by inverting simulated hydrology-related geopotential data, and successfully applied to estimate time-varying surface mass densities from real GRACE-based residuals. This strategy of combined Kalman filter-type inversions can also be useful for exploring the possibility of reaching better time and space resolutions for hydrology, that would be hopefully brought by future low altitude geodetic missions.

  10. EFFECTS OF BIASES IN VIRIAL MASS ESTIMATION ON COSMIC SYNCHRONIZATION OF QUASAR ACCRETION

    SciTech Connect

    Steinhardt, Charles L.

    2011-09-01

    Recent work using virial mass estimates and the quasar mass-luminosity plane has yielded several new puzzles regarding quasar accretion, including a sub-Eddington boundary (SEB) on most quasar accretion, near-independence of the accretion rate from properties of the host galaxy, and a cosmic synchronization of accretion among black holes of a common mass. We consider how these puzzles might change if virial mass estimation turns out to have a systematic bias. As examples, we consider two recent claims of mass-dependent biases in Mg II masses. Under any such correction, the surprising cosmic synchronization of quasar accretion rates and independence from the host galaxy remain. The slope and location of the SEB are very sensitive to biases in virial mass estimation, and various mass calibrations appear to favor different possible physical explanations for feedback between the central black hole and its environment. The alternative mass estimators considered do not simply remove puzzling quasar behavior, but rather replace it with new puzzles that may be more difficult to solve than those using current virial mass estimators and the Shen et al. catalog.

  11. Large divergence of satellite and Earth system model estimates of global terrestrial CO2 fertilization

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, W. Kolby; Reed, Sasha C.; Cleveland, Cory C.; Ballantyne, Ashley P; Anderegg, William R. L.; Wieder, William R.; Liu, Yi Y; Running, Steven W.

    2015-01-01

    Atmospheric mass balance analyses suggest that terrestrial carbon (C) storage is increasing, partially abating the atmospheric [CO2] growth rate, although the continued strength of this important ecosystem service remains uncertain. Some evidence suggests that these increases will persist owing to positive responses of vegetation growth (net primary productivity; NPP) to rising atmospheric [CO2] (that is, ‘CO2 fertilization’). Here, we present a new satellite-derived global terrestrial NPP data set, which shows a significant increase in NPP from 1982 to 2011. However, comparison against Earth system model (ESM) NPP estimates reveals a significant divergence, with satellite-derived increases (2.8 ± 1.50%) less than half of ESM-derived increases (7.6  ±  1.67%) over the 30-year period. By isolating the CO2 fertilization effect in each NPP time series and comparing it against a synthesis of available free-air CO2 enrichment data, we provide evidence that much of the discrepancy may be due to an over-sensitivity of ESMs to atmospheric [CO2], potentially reflecting an under-representation of climatic feedbacks and/or a lack of representation of nutrient constraints. Our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects on NPP needs rapid improvement to enable more accurate projections of future C cycle–climate feedbacks; we contend that better integration of modelling, satellite and experimental approaches offers a promising way forward.

  12. Assessing the Impact of Vertical Land Motion on Twentieth Century Global Mean Sea Level Estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hamlington, B. D.; Thompson, P.; Hammond, W. C.; Blewitt, G.; Ray, R. D.

    2016-01-01

    Near-global and continuous measurements from satellite altimetry have provided accurate estimates of global mean sea level in the past two decades. Extending these estimates further into the past is a challenge using the historical tide gauge records. Not only is sampling nonuniform in both space and time, but tide gauges are also affected by vertical land motion (VLM) that creates a relative sea level change not representative of ocean variability. To allow for comparisons to the satellite altimetry estimated global mean sea level (GMSL), typically the tide gauges are corrected using glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. This approach, however, does not correct other sources of VLM that remain in the tide gauge record. Here we compare Global Positioning System (GPS) VLM estimates at the tide gauge locations to VLM estimates from GIA models, and assess the influence of non-GIA-related VLM on GMSL estimates. We find that the tide gauges, on average, are experiencing positive VLM (i.e., uplift) after removing the known effect of GIA, resulting in an increase of 0.2460.08 mm yr21 in GMSL trend estimates from 1900 to present when using GPS-based corrections. While this result is likely dependent on the subset of tide gauges used and the actual corrections used, it does suggest that non-GIA VLM plays a significant role in twentieth century estimates of GMSL. Given the relatively short GPS records used to obtain these VLM estimates, we also estimate the uncertainty in the GMSL trend that results from limited knowledge of non-GIA-related VLM.

  13. Assessing the impact of vertical land motion on twentieth century global mean sea level estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamlington, B. D.; Thompson, P.; Hammond, W. C.; Blewitt, G.; Ray, R. D.

    2016-07-01

    Near-global and continuous measurements from satellite altimetry have provided accurate estimates of global mean sea level in the past two decades. Extending these estimates further into the past is a challenge using the historical tide gauge records. Not only is sampling nonuniform in both space and time, but tide gauges are also affected by vertical land motion (VLM) that creates a relative sea level change not representative of ocean variability. To allow for comparisons to the satellite altimetry estimated global mean sea level (GMSL), typically the tide gauges are corrected using glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. This approach, however, does not correct other sources of VLM that remain in the tide gauge record. Here we compare Global Positioning System (GPS) VLM estimates at the tide gauge locations to VLM estimates from GIA models, and assess the influence of non-GIA-related VLM on GMSL estimates. We find that the tide gauges, on average, are experiencing positive VLM (i.e., uplift) after removing the known effect of GIA, resulting in an increase of 0.24 ± 0.08 mm yr-1 in GMSL trend estimates from 1900 to present when using GPS-based corrections. While this result is likely dependent on the subset of tide gauges used and the actual corrections used, it does suggest that non-GIA VLM plays a significant role in twentieth century estimates of GMSL. Given the relatively short GPS records used to obtain these VLM estimates, we also estimate the uncertainty in the GMSL trend that results from limited knowledge of non-GIA-related VLM.

  14. TRMM Science Highlights and 3-hr Quasi-global Precipitation Estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adler, Robert F.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has completed more than four years in orbit. A summary of research highlights will be presented focusing on application of TRMM data to topics ranging over climate analysis, improving forecasts, precipitation processes and non-precipitation applications. One focus of the talk will be the quasi-global TRMM real-time merged rainfall analysis with 3-hr resolution, which uses TRMM to calibrate estimates from other polar-orbit and geosynchronous satellites. These rainfall estimates provide useful information for applications for assimilation into numerical models and for hydrological studies. The status of precipitation estimates from different TRMM instruments and algorithms will be described. Monthly surface rainfall estimates over the ocean based on different instruments on TRMM currently differ by 20% in overall mean. In addition, time changes in global ocean rainfall between El Nino and La Nina conditions show differences between the active and passive microwave products. Improved versions of algorithms will shortly resolve most of these differences. The TRMM rainfall estimates are intercompared among themselves and with other estimates, including those of the standard, monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) analysis. A four-year TRMM rainfall climatology is presented, including anomaly fields related to the changing ENSO situation during the mission. The evolution of precipitation analysis incorporating Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) data on AQUA and ADEOS II and eventually data from the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) will also be described.

  15. Bottom-up uncertainty estimates of global ammonia emissions from global agricultural production systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beusen, A. H. W.; Bouwman, A. F.; Heuberger, P. S. C.; Van Drecht, G.; Van Der Hoek, K. W.

    Here we present an uncertainty analysis of NH 3 emissions from agricultural production systems based on a global NH 3 emission inventory with a 5×5 min resolution. Of all results the mean is given with a range (10% and 90% percentile). The uncertainty range for the global NH 3 emission from agricultural systems is 27-38 (with a mean of 32) Tg NH 3-N yr -1, N fertilizer use contributing 10-12 (11) Tg yr -1 and livestock production 16-27 (21) Tg yr -1. Most of the emissions from livestock production come from animal houses and storage systems (31-55%); smaller contributions come from the spreading of animal manure (23-38%) and grazing animals (17-37%). This uncertainty analysis allows for identifying and improving those input parameters with a major influence on the results. The most important determinants of the uncertainty related to the global agricultural NH 3 emission comprise four parameters (N excretion rates, NH 3 emission rates for manure in animal houses and storage, the fraction of the time that ruminants graze and the fraction of non-agricultural use of manure) specific to mixed and landless systems, and total animal stocks. Nitrogen excretion rates and NH 3 emission rates from animal houses and storage systems are shown consistently to be the most important parameters in most parts of the world. Input parameters for pastoral systems are less relevant. However, there are clear differences between world regions and individual countries, reflecting the differences in livestock production systems.

  16. Estimation of pairing correlations for nuclear mass table evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robledo, Luis; Bertsch, George

    2010-11-01

    Mean field models provide a well-justified theoretical approach to generate mass tables, but without some extension the energy misses the correlation energy associated with the restoration of broken symmetries such as angular momentum or particle number. The Lipkin-Nogami (LN) method is often used to treat the pairing correlation energy in mass table evaluations, mainly because of its simplicity. However, it has been found that in many nuclei pairing correlations are weak and the LN method, which is an approximation to the more sophisticated Particle Number Projection (PNP), fails. We propose an alternative to the LN method which can be safely applied in the regime of weak pairing correlations and is simpler than variation after projection (VAP) for the PNP. It is based on a Restricted VAP for PNP using the fluctuation on particle number as coordinate. We show that in the strong pairing correlation limit the LN method is recovered. The method is applied to the evaluation of the even-even nuclei mass table with the Gogny parametrization of the nuclear interaction.

  17. Estimation of skeletal muscle mass from body creatine content

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pace, N.; Rahlmann, D. F.

    1982-01-01

    Procedures have been developed for studying the effect of changes in gravitational loading on skeletal muscle mass through measurements of the body creatine content. These procedures were developed for studies of gravitational scale effects in a four-species model, comprising the hamster, rat, guinea pig, and rabbit, which provides a sufficient range of body size for assessment of allometric parameters. Since intracellular muscle creatine concentration varies among species, and with age within a given species, the concentration values for metabolically mature individuals of these four species were established. The creatine content of the carcass, skin, viscera, smooth muscle, and skeletal muscle was determined for each species. In addition, the skeletal muscle mass of the major body components was determined, as well as the total and fat-free masses of the body and carcass, and the percent skeletal muscle in each. It is concluded that these procedures are particularly useful for studying the effect of gravitational loading on the skeletal muscle content of the animal carcass, which is the principal weight-bearing organ of the body.

  18. Combining satellite observations and reanalysis energy transports to estimate global net surface energy fluxes 1985-2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Chunlei; Allan, Richard P.; Berrisford, Paul; Mayer, Michael; Hyder, Patrick; Loeb, Norman; Smith, Doug; Vidale, Pier-Luigi; Edwards, John M.

    2015-09-01

    Two methods are developed to estimate net surface energy fluxes based upon satellite-derived reconstructions of radiative fluxes at the top of atmosphere and the atmospheric energy tendencies and transports from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Method 1 applies the mass-adjusted energy divergence from ERA-Interim, while method 2 estimates energy divergence based upon the net energy difference at the top of atmosphere and the surface from ERA-Interim. To optimize the surface flux and its variability over ocean, the divergences over land are constrained to match the monthly area mean surface net energy flux variability derived from a simple relationship between the surface net energy flux and the surface temperature change. The energy divergences over the oceans are then adjusted to remove an unphysical residual global mean atmospheric energy divergence. The estimated net surface energy fluxes are compared with other data sets from reanalysis and atmospheric model simulations. The spatial correlation coefficients of multiannual means between the estimations made here and other data sets are all around 0.9. There are good agreements in area mean anomaly variability over the global ocean, but discrepancies in the trend over the eastern Pacific are apparent.

  19. Estimating initial contaminant mass based on fitting mass-depletion functions to contaminant mass discharge data: Testing method efficacy with SVE operations data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mainhagu, J.; Brusseau, M. L.

    2016-09-01

    The mass of contaminant present at a site, particularly in the source zones, is one of the key parameters for assessing the risk posed by contaminated sites, and for setting and evaluating remediation goals and objectives. This quantity is rarely known and is challenging to estimate accurately. This work investigated the efficacy of fitting mass-depletion functions to temporal contaminant mass discharge (CMD) data as a means of estimating initial mass. Two common mass-depletion functions, exponential and power functions, were applied to historic soil vapor extraction (SVE) CMD data collected from 11 contaminated sites for which the SVE operations are considered to be at or close to essentially complete mass removal. The functions were applied to the entire available data set for each site, as well as to the early-time data (the initial 1/3 of the data available). Additionally, a complete differential-time analysis was conducted. The latter two analyses were conducted to investigate the impact of limited data on method performance, given that the primary mode of application would be to use the method during the early stages of a remediation effort. The estimated initial masses were compared to the total masses removed for the SVE operations. The mass estimates obtained from application to the full data sets were reasonably similar to the measured masses removed for both functions (13 and 15% mean error). The use of the early-time data resulted in a minimally higher variation for the exponential function (17%) but a much higher error (51%) for the power function. These results suggest that the method can produce reasonable estimates of initial mass useful for planning and assessing remediation efforts.

  20. Progress and challenges in the estimation of the global energy balance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wild, Martin

    2017-02-01

    While enormous progress in the determination of the global energy fluxes in and out of the climate system was made in the past decades due to the installation of sophisticated space-born observation systems, substantial discrepancies remained in the estimated and simulated surface energy budgets, as they cannot be directly measured from space. The increasing availability of accurate surface observations, improvements in the satellite retrievals of surface fluxes and model advancement, however, lead to a recent convergence of independent estimates on some of the global mean surface energy balance components to within a few Wm-2. This suggests that we are approaching a stage where we are not only confident in the magnitudes of the global annual mean energy balance components at the TOA, but increasingly also at the surface. Consensus emerges on a global mean surface downward shortwave flux near 185 Wm-2, as well as global mean surface downward and upward longwave fluxes slightly above 340 Wm-2 and below 400 Wm-2, respectively. Taking into account remaining uncertainties in the surface albedo, this implies a surface absorbed shortwave radiation near or somewhat above 160 Wm-2, which leaves an atmospheric shortwave absorption of nearly 80 Wm-2, considering a total shortwave absorption of 240 Wm-2 in the global climate system. Thus, 2/3 of the absorption of shortwave radiation in the climate system takes place at the surface, 1/3 in the atmosphere. Given the above estimates, the global mean surface net radiation (surface radiation balance) appears to be around 105 Wm-2. The partitioning of this radiative energy at the Earth's surface into sensible and latent heat is only weekly constrained by direct observations and is still afflicted with considerable uncertainties. The best estimate of global mean surface net radiation near 105 Wm-2 promoted here should, however, enable a consistent representation of the magnitudes of the global energy and water cycles within their

  1. Towards an estimation of water masses formation areas from SMOS-based TS diagrams

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klockmann, Marlene; Sabia, Roberto; Fernandez-Prieto, Diego; Donlon, Craig; Font, Jordi

    2014-05-01

    Temperature-Salinity (TS) diagrams emphasize the mutual variability of ocean temperature and salinity values, relating them to the corresponding density. Canonically used in oceanography, they provide a means to characterize and trace ocean water masses. In [1], a first attempt to estimate surface-layer TS diagrams based on satellite measurements has been performed, profiting from the recent availability of spaceborne salinity data. In fact, the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS, [2]) and the Aquarius/SAC-D [3] satellite missions allow to study the dynamical patterns of Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) for the first time on a global scale. In [4], given SMOS and Aquarius salinity estimates, and by also using Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA, [5]) effort, experimental satellite-based TS diagrams have been routinely derived for the year 2011. They have been compared with those computed from ARGO-buoys interpolated fields, referring to a customised partition of the global ocean into seven regions, according to the water masses classification of [6]. In [7], moreover, besides using TS diagrams as a diagnostic tool to evaluate the temporal variation of SST and SSS (and their corresponding density) as estimated by satellite measurements, the emphasis was on the interpretation of the geographical deviations with respect to the ARGO baseline (aiming at distinguishing between the SSS retrieval errors and the additional information contained in the satellite data with respect to ARGO). In order to relate these mismatches to identifiable oceanographic structures and processes, additional satellite datasets of ocean currents, evaporation/precipitation fluxes, and wind speed have been super-imposed. Currently, the main focus of the study deals with the exploitation of these TS diagrams as a prognostic tool to derive water masses formation areas. Firstly, following the approach described in [8], the surface

  2. Glaciers. Attribution of global glacier mass loss to anthropogenic and natural causes.

    PubMed

    Marzeion, Ben; Cogley, J Graham; Richter, Kristin; Parkes, David

    2014-08-22

    The ongoing global glacier retreat is affecting human societies by causing sea-level rise, changing seasonal water availability, and increasing geohazards. Melting glaciers are an icon of anthropogenic climate change. However, glacier response times are typically decades or longer, which implies that the present-day glacier retreat is a mixed response to past and current natural climate variability and current anthropogenic forcing. Here we show that only 25 ± 35% of the global glacier mass loss during the period from 1851 to 2010 is attributable to anthropogenic causes. Nevertheless, the anthropogenic signal is detectable with high confidence in glacier mass balance observations during 1991 to 2010, and the anthropogenic fraction of global glacier mass loss during that period has increased to 69 ± 24%.

  3. MASS STORAGE ESTIMATES FOR THE DIGITAL MAPPING AREA.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Light, Donald L.

    1983-01-01

    Modern computer technology offers cartographers the potential for transition from conventional film-oriented methods to digital techniques as the way of mapping in the future. Traditional methods utilizing silver halide aerial and lithographic films for storage are time proven, and film is a very high density archival storage media. In view of this, proponents of the digital era recognize that a breakthrough in mass storage technology may be required to attain a reasonable degree of computerization of the cartographic mapping and data management process.

  4. A New Equation to Estimate Muscle Mass from Creatinine and Cystatin C

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Cheol-Ho; Kim, Kwang-il; Chin, Ho Jun; Lee, Hajeong

    2016-01-01

    Background With evaluation for physical performance, measuring muscle mass is an important step in detecting sarcopenia. However, there are no methods to estimate muscle mass from blood sampling. Methods To develop a new equation to estimate total-body muscle mass with serum creatinine and cystatin C level, we designed a cross-sectional study with separate derivation and validation cohorts. Total body muscle mass and fat mass were measured using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) in 214 adults aged 25 to 84 years who underwent physical checkups from 2010 to 2013 in a single tertiary hospital. Serum creatinine and cystatin C levels were also examined. Results Serum creatinine was correlated with muscle mass (P < .001), and serum cystatin C was correlated with body fat mass (P < .001) after adjusting glomerular filtration rate (GFR). After eliminating GFR, an equation to estimate total-body muscle mass was generated and coefficients were calculated in the derivation cohort. There was an agreement between muscle mass calculated by the novel equation and measured by DXA in both the derivation and validation cohort (P < .001, adjusted R2 = 0.829, β = 0.95, P < .001, adjusted R2 = 0.856, β = 1.03, respectively). Conclusion The new equation based on serum creatinine and cystatin C levels can be used to estimate total-body muscle mass. PMID:26849842

  5. Global energy gradients and size in colonial organisms: worker mass and worker number in ant colonies.

    PubMed

    Kaspari, Michael

    2005-04-05

    Body mass shapes processes from cell metabolism to community dynamics. Little is known, however, about how the average body mass of individuals varies among ecological communities. Ants alter colony mass by independently changing worker mass and/or worker number. In a survey of 49 ecosystems from tundra to tropical rainforest, average worker mass and worker number were uncorrelated (r(s) = 0.2, P > 0.14) and varied 100-fold. Data supported the hypothesis that higher mean monthly temperatures, T, reduce worker mass by increasing metabolic costs during worker development. In contrast, worker number was unimodal over a 1,000-fold gradient of net primary productivity (NPP, g of carbon per m2 per yr), a measure of organic carbon available to consumers. At the lowest levels of NPP colonies appeared to be carbon-limited; above 60 g of carbon per m2 per yr average worker number decreased to a global low. This decline in worker number with increasing NPP supports the hypothesis that abundant carbon ameliorates the Achilles heel of small taxa in competition with large taxa: their relatively high metabolic demands. Higher predation rates in resource-rich environments may also play a role in limiting worker number. In all, about half the global variation in worker mass and number was accounted for by gradients of NPP and T. Changes in global temperature and rainfall may thus mold gradients of ectotherm size, with consequences for the structure and function of the ecosystems.

  6. Estimating nutrient loadings using chemical mass balance approach.

    PubMed

    Jain, C K; Singhal, D C; Sharma, M K

    2007-11-01

    The river Hindon is one of the important tributaries of river Yamuna in western Uttar Pradesh (India) and carries pollution loads from various municipal and industrial units and surrounding agricultural areas. The main sources of pollution in the river include municipal wastes from Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar and Ghaziabad urban areas and industrial effluents of sugar, pulp and paper, distilleries and other miscellaneous industries through tributaries as well as direct inputs. In this paper, chemical mass balance approach has been used to assess the contribution from non-point sources of pollution to the river. The river system has been divided into three stretches depending on the land use pattern. The contribution of point sources in the upper and lower stretches are 95 and 81% respectively of the total flow of the river while there is no point source input in the middle stretch. Mass balance calculations indicate that contribution of nitrate and phosphate from non-point sources amounts to 15.5 and 6.9% in the upper stretch and 13.1 and 16.6% in the lower stretch respectively. Observed differences in the load along the river may be attributed to uncharacterized sources of pollution due to agricultural activities, remobilization from or entrainment of contaminated bottom sediments, ground water contribution or a combination of these sources.

  7. Volcanism, Impacts and Mass Extinctions: A case study of the Deccan Traps and its global effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, G.

    2012-12-01

    The nature and causes of mass extinctions in the geological past have remained topics of intense scientific debate for the past three decades. Central to this debate is the question of whether one, or several large bolide impacts, the eruption of large igneous provinces (LIP) or a combination of the two were the primary mechanisms driving the environmental changes that are universally regarded as the proximate causes for four of the five major Phanerozoic extinction events. Recent years have seen a revolution in our understanding of interplanetary environments, LIP eruptions and their environmental effects such that the simple impact-kill scenario no longer seems an adequate explanation for the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary (KTB) or any other mass extinction. The KTB is the only mass extinction associated with both impact (Chixculub) and flood basalts (Deccan Traps) and therefore an excellent case study to evaluate the potential causes and effects. Deccan eruptions likely occurred as "pulses", with some gigantic megaflows 1500 km across India and with estimated volumes >10,000 km3 that may have erupted over very short time intervals. For comparison, the largest historical basalt eruption in 1783 in Iceland (Laki) ejected some 15 km3 of lava in about a year. A single Deccan megaflow would have been equivalent to 667 Laki. The vast amount of carbon and sulphur dioxides injected into the atmosphere from just one Deccan megaflow would have been on the same order of magnitude as those estimated for the Chicxulub impact. Deccan Traps erupted in three main phases with 6% total Deccan volume in phase-1 (base C30n), 80% in phase-2 (C29r) and 14% in phase-3 (C29n). Phase-2 and phase-3 each produced four giant megaflows leading to the KTB mass extinction and the long delayed biotic recovery, respectively. Data from infra- and intertrappean sediments of these megaflows drilled in the Krishna-Godavari Basin by India's Oil and Natural Gas Corporation reveal swift and devastating

  8. How does mass loading impact local versus global control on dayside reconnection?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, B.; Brambles, O. J.; Wiltberger, M.; Lotko, W.; Ouellette, J. E.; Lyon, J. G.

    2016-03-01

    This paper investigates the effects of magnetospheric mass loading on the control of dayside magnetic reconnection using global magnetospheric simulations. The study iys motivated by a recent debate on whether the integrated dayside magnetic reconnection rate is solely controlled by local processes (local-control theory) or global merging processes (global-control theory). The local-control theory suggests that the integrated dayside reconnection rate is controlled by the local plasma parameters. The global-control theory argues that the integrated rate is determined by the net force acting on the flow in the magnetosheath rather than the local microphysics. Controlled numerical simulations using idealized ionospheric outflow specifications suggest a possible mixed-control theory, that is, (1) a small amount of mass loading at the dayside magnetopause only redistributes local reconnection rate without a significant change in the integrated reconnection rate and (2) a large amount of mass loading reduces both local reconnection rates and the integrated reconnection rate on the dayside. The transition between global-control- and local-control-dominated regimes depends on (but not limited to) the source region, the amount, the location, and the spatial extension of the mass loading at the dayside magnetopause.

  9. Tracking the global generation and exports of e-waste. Do existing estimates add up?

    PubMed

    Breivik, Knut; Armitage, James M; Wania, Frank; Jones, Kevin C

    2014-01-01

    The transport of discarded electronic and electrical appliances (e-waste) to developing regions has received considerable attention, but it is difficult to assess the significance of this issue without a quantitative understanding of the amounts involved. The main objective of this study is to track the global transport of e-wastes by compiling and constraining existing estimates of the amount of e-waste generated domestically in each country MGEN, exported from countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) MEXP, and imported in countries outside of the OECD MIMP. Reference year is 2005 and all estimates are given with an uncertainty range. Estimates of MGEN obtained by apportioning a global total of ∼ 35,000 kt (range 20,000-50,000 kt) based on a nation's gross domestic product agree well with independent estimates of MGEN for individual countries. Import estimates MIMP to the countries believed to be the major recipients of e-waste exports from the OECD globally (China, India, and five West African countries) suggests that ∼ 5,000 kt (3,600 kt-7,300 kt) may have been imported annually to these non-OECD countries alone, which represents ∼ 23% (17%-34%) of the amounts of e-waste generated domestically within the OECD. MEXP for each OECD country is then estimated by applying this fraction of 23% to its MGEN. By allocating each country's MGEN, MIMP, MEXP and MNET = MGEN + MIMP - MEXP, we can map the global generation and flows of e-waste from OECD to non-OECD countries. While significant uncertainties remain, we note that estimated import into seven non-OECD countries alone are often at the higher end of estimates of exports from OECD countries.

  10. Global Burden of Leptospirosis: Estimated in Terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years

    PubMed Central

    Torgerson, Paul R.; Hagan, José E.; Costa, Federico; Calcagno, Juan; Kane, Michael; Martinez-Silveira, Martha S.; Goris, Marga G. A.; Stein, Claudia; Ko, Albert I.; Abela-Ridder, Bernadette

    2015-01-01

    Background Leptospirosis, a spirochaetal zoonosis, occurs in diverse epidemiological settings and affects vulnerable populations, such as rural subsistence farmers and urban slum dwellers. Although leptospirosis can cause life-threatening disease, there is no global burden of disease estimate in terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) available. Methodology/Principal Findings We utilised the results of a parallel publication that reported global estimates of morbidity and mortality due to leptospirosis. We estimated Years of Life Lost (YLLs) from age and gender stratified mortality rates. Years of Life with Disability (YLDs) were developed from a simple disease model indicating likely sequelae. DALYs were estimated from the sum of YLLs and YLDs. The study suggested that globally approximately 2·90 million DALYs are lost per annum (UIs 1·25–4·54 million) from the approximately annual 1·03 million cases reported previously. Males are predominantly affected with an estimated 2·33 million DALYs (UIs 0·98–3·69) or approximately 80% of the total burden. For comparison, this is over 70% of the global burden of cholera estimated by GBD 2010. Tropical regions of South and South-east Asia, Western Pacific, Central and South America, and Africa had the highest estimated leptospirosis disease burden. Conclusions/Significance Leptospirosis imparts a significant health burden worldwide, which approach or exceed those encountered for a number of other zoonotic and neglected tropical diseases. The study findings indicate that highest burden estimates occur in resource-poor tropical countries, which include regions of Africa where the burden of leptospirosis has been under-appreciated and possibly misallocated to other febrile illnesses such as malaria. PMID:26431366

  11. Active galactic nucleus black hole mass estimates in the era of time domain astronomy

    SciTech Connect

    Kelly, Brandon C.; Treu, Tommaso; Pancoast, Anna; Malkan, Matthew; Woo, Jong-Hak

    2013-12-20

    We investigate the dependence of the normalization of the high-frequency part of the X-ray and optical power spectral densities (PSDs) on black hole mass for a sample of 39 active galactic nuclei (AGNs) with black hole masses estimated from reverberation mapping or dynamical modeling. We obtained new Swift observations of PG 1426+015, which has the largest estimated black hole mass of the AGNs in our sample. We develop a novel statistical method to estimate the PSD from a light curve of photon counts with arbitrary sampling, eliminating the need to bin a light curve to achieve Gaussian statistics, and we use this technique to estimate the X-ray variability parameters for the faint AGNs in our sample. We find that the normalization of the high-frequency X-ray PSD is inversely proportional to black hole mass. We discuss how to use this scaling relationship to obtain black hole mass estimates from the short timescale X-ray variability amplitude with precision ∼0.38 dex. The amplitude of optical variability on timescales of days is also anticorrelated with black hole mass, but with larger scatter. Instead, the optical variability amplitude exhibits the strongest anticorrelation with luminosity. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our results for estimating black hole mass from the amplitude of AGN variability.

  12. Total body skeletal muscle mass: estimation by creatine (methyl-d3) dilution in humans.

    PubMed

    Clark, Richard V; Walker, Ann C; O'Connor-Semmes, Robin L; Leonard, Michael S; Miller, Ram R; Stimpson, Stephen A; Turner, Scott M; Ravussin, Eric; Cefalu, William T; Hellerstein, Marc K; Evans, William J

    2014-06-15

    Current methods for clinical estimation of total body skeletal muscle mass have significant limitations. We tested the hypothesis that creatine (methyl-d3) dilution (D3-creatine) measured by enrichment of urine D3-creatinine reveals total body creatine pool size, providing an accurate estimate of total body skeletal muscle mass. Healthy subjects with different muscle masses [n = 35: 20 men (19-30 yr, 70-84 yr), 15 postmenopausal women (51-62 yr, 70-84 yr)] were housed for 5 days. Optimal tracer dose was explored with single oral doses of 30, 60, or 100 mg D3-creatine given on day 1. Serial plasma samples were collected for D3-creatine pharmacokinetics. All urine was collected through day 5. Creatine and creatinine (deuterated and unlabeled) were measured by liquid chromatography mass spectrometry. Total body creatine pool size and muscle mass were calculated from D3-creatinine enrichment in urine. Muscle mass was also measured by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and traditional 24-h urine creatinine. D3-creatine was rapidly absorbed and cleared with variable urinary excretion. Isotopic steady-state of D3-creatinine enrichment in the urine was achieved by 30.7 ± 11.2 h. Mean steady-state enrichment in urine provided muscle mass estimates that correlated well with MRI estimates for all subjects (r = 0.868, P < 0.0001), with less bias compared with lean body mass assessment by DXA, which overestimated muscle mass compared with MRI. The dilution of an oral D3-creatine dose determined by urine D3-creatinine enrichment provides an estimate of total body muscle mass strongly correlated with estimates from serial MRI with less bias than total lean body mass assessment by DXA.

  13. Applications of TRMM-based Multi-Satellite Precipitation Estimation for Global Runoff Simulation: Prototyping a Global Flood Monitoring System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hong, Yang; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Pierce, Harold

    2008-01-01

    Advances in flood monitoring/forecasting have been constrained by the difficulty in estimating rainfall continuously over space (catchment-, national-, continental-, or even global-scale areas) and flood-relevant time scale. With the recent availability of satellite rainfall estimates at fine time and space resolution, this paper describes a prototype research framework for global flood monitoring by combining real-time satellite observations with a database of global terrestrial characteristics through a hydrologically relevant modeling scheme. Four major components included in the framework are (1) real-time precipitation input from NASA TRMM-based Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA); (2) a central geospatial database to preprocess the land surface characteristics: water divides, slopes, soils, land use, flow directions, flow accumulation, drainage network etc.; (3) a modified distributed hydrological model to convert rainfall to runoff and route the flow through the stream network in order to predict the timing and severity of the flood wave, and (4) an open-access web interface to quickly disseminate flood alerts for potential decision-making. Retrospective simulations for 1998-2006 demonstrate that the Global Flood Monitor (GFM) system performs consistently at both station and catchment levels. The GFM website (experimental version) has been running at near real-time in an effort to offer a cost-effective solution to the ultimate challenge of building natural disaster early warning systems for the data-sparse regions of the world. The interactive GFM website shows close-up maps of the flood risks overlaid on topography/population or integrated with the Google-Earth visualization tool. One additional capability, which extends forecast lead-time by assimilating QPF into the GFM, also will be implemented in the future.

  14. Estimating Heat and Mass Transfer Processes in Green Roof Systems: Current Modeling Capabilities and Limitations (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Tabares Velasco, P. C.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation discusses estimating heat and mass transfer processes in green roof systems: current modeling capabilities and limitations. Green roofs are 'specialized roofing systems that support vegetation growth on rooftops.'

  15. A GIS TECHNIQUE FOR ESTIMATING NATURAL ATTENUATION RATES AND MASS BALANCES

    EPA Science Inventory

    ABSTRACT: Regulatory approval of monitored natural attenuation (MNA) as a component for site remediation often requires a demonstration that contaminant mass has decreased significantly over time. Successful approval of MNA also typically requires an estimate of past and future n...

  16. Estimation of body mass index from the metrics of the first metatarsal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dunn, Tyler E.

    Estimation of the biological profile from as many skeletal elements as possible is a necessity in both forensic and bioarchaeological contexts; this includes non-standard aspects of the biological profile, such as body mass index (BMI). BMI is a measure that allows for understanding of the composition of an individual and is traditionally divided into four groups: underweight, normal weight, overweight, and obese. BMI estimation incorporates both estimation of stature and body mass. The estimation of stature from skeletal elements is commonly included into the standard biological profile but the estimation of body mass needs to be further statistically validated to be consistently included. The bones of the foot, specifically the first metatarsal, may have the ability to estimate BMI given an allometric relationship to stature and the mechanical relationship to body mass. There are two commonly used methods for stature estimation, the anatomical method and the regression method. The anatomical method takes into account all of the skeletal elements that contribute to stature while the regression method relies on the allometric relationship between a skeletal element and living stature. A correlation between the metrics of the first metatarsal and living stature has been observed, and proposed as a method for valid stature estimation from the boney foot (Byers et al., 1989). Body mass estimation from skeletal elements relies on two theoretical frameworks: the morphometric and the mechanical approaches. The morphometric approach relies on the size relationship of the individual to body mass; the basic relationship between volume, density, and weight allows for body mass estimation. The body is thought of as a cylinder, and in order to understand the volume of this cylinder the diameter is needed. A commonly used proxy for this in the human body is skeletal bi-iliac breadth from rearticulated pelvic girdle. The mechanical method of body mass estimation relies on the

  17. Ambient Air Pollution Exposure Estimation for the Global Burden of Disease 2013.

    PubMed

    Brauer, Michael; Freedman, Greg; Frostad, Joseph; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Martin, Randall V; Dentener, Frank; van Dingenen, Rita; Estep, Kara; Amini, Heresh; Apte, Joshua S; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Barregard, Lars; Broday, David; Feigin, Valery; Ghosh, Santu; Hopke, Philip K; Knibbs, Luke D; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Liu, Yang; Ma, Stefan; Morawska, Lidia; Sangrador, José Luis Texcalac; Shaddick, Gavin; Anderson, H Ross; Vos, Theo; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Burnett, Richard T; Cohen, Aaron

    2016-01-05

    Exposure to ambient air pollution is a major risk factor for global disease. Assessment of the impacts of air pollution on population health and evaluation of trends relative to other major risk factors requires regularly updated, accurate, spatially resolved exposure estimates. We combined satellite-based estimates, chemical transport model simulations, and ground measurements from 79 different countries to produce global estimates of annual average fine particle (PM2.5) and ozone concentrations at 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution for five-year intervals from 1990 to 2010 and the year 2013. These estimates were applied to assess population-weighted mean concentrations for 1990-2013 for each of 188 countries. In 2013, 87% of the world's population lived in areas exceeding the World Health Organization Air Quality Guideline of 10 μg/m(3) PM2.5 (annual average). Between 1990 and 2013, global population-weighted PM2.5 increased by 20.4% driven by trends in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and China. Decreases in population-weighted mean concentrations of PM2.5 were evident in most high income countries. Population-weighted mean concentrations of ozone increased globally by 8.9% from 1990-2013 with increases in most countries-except for modest decreases in North America, parts of Europe, and several countries in Southeast Asia.

  18. A numerical study on dust devils with implications to global dust budget estimates

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The estimates of the contribution of dust devils (DDs) to the global dust budget have large uncertainties because the dust emission mechanisms in DDs are not yet well understood. In this study, a large-eddy simulation model coupled with a dust scheme is used to investigate DD dust entrainment. DDs a...

  19. New global stability estimates for the Gel'fand-Calderon inverse problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Novikov, R. G.

    2011-01-01

    We prove new global stability estimates for the Gel'fand-Calderon inverse problem in 3D. For sufficiently regular potentials, this result of the present work is a principal improvement of the result of Alessandrini (1988 Appl. Anal. 27 153-172).

  20. Improvement of sub-pixel global motion estimation in UAV image stabilization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yingjuan; Ji, Ming; He, Junfeng; Zhen, Kang; Yang, Yizhou; Chen, Ying

    2016-01-01

    Global motion estimation within frames is very important in the UAV(unmanned aerial vehicle) image stabilization system. A fast algorithm based on phase correlation and image down-sampling in sub-pixel was proposed. First, down-sampling of the two frames to quantitatively reduce calculate data. Then, take the method based of phase correlation to realize the global motion estimation in integer-pixel. When it calculated out, chooses the overlapped area of the two frames and interpolated them with zero, then adopts the method based on phase correlation to achieve the global motion estimation in sub-pixel. At last, weighted calculate the result in integer-pixel and the result in sub-pixel, the global motion displacement in sub-pixel of the two images will be calculated out. Experimental results show that, using the proposed algorithm can not only achieve good robustness to the influence of noise, illumination and partially sheltered but also improve the accuracy of motion estimation and efficiency of computing significantly.

  1. Global-Scale Location and Distance Estimates: Common Representations and Strategies in Absolute and Relative Judgments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Friedman, Alinda; Montello, Daniel R.

    2006-01-01

    The authors examined whether absolute and relative judgments about global-scale locations and distances were generated from common representations. At the end of a 10-week class on the regional geography of the United States, participants estimated the latitudes of 16 North American cities and all possible pairwise distances between them. Although…

  2. A COMPARISON OF METHODS FOR ESTIMATING GLOBAL METHANE EMISSIONS FROM LANDFILLS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Landfills are a significant source of methane, ranking third in anthropogenic sources after rice paddies and ruminants. Estimating the contribution of landfills to global methane flux is hampered by a lack of accurate refuse and landfill data, and therefore depends heavily on the...

  3. New estimates of area and mass for the North American tektite strewn field

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koeberl, C.

    1989-01-01

    A revised estimate is given for the total mass of the North American tektite material, which is based on a concept of patches or rays of distribution rather than on a continuous tektite and microtektite blanket. This concept yields a total mass of about 3 x 10 to the 14th g, which is less than a third of previous estimates. The shape of the North American tektite strewn field is in agreement with other tektite strewn fields.

  4. Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Muller, Christoph; Ewart, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Deryng, Delphine

    2016-01-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

  5. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph; Ewert, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Alderman, Phillip D.; Anothai, Jakarat; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Cammarano, Davide; Challinor, Andy; Deryng, Delphine; Sanctis, Giacomo De; Doltra, Jordi; Fereres, Elias; Folberth, Christian; Garcia-Vila, Margarita; Gayler, Sebastian; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Hunt, Leslie A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Jabloun, Mohamed; Jones, Curtis D.; Kersebaum, Kurt C.; Kimball, Bruce A.; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Nendel, Claas; O'Leary, Garry J.; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Ottman, Michael J.; Palosuo, Taru; Prasad, P. V. Vara; Priesack, Eckart; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Reynolds, Matthew; Rezaei, Ehsan E.; Rötter, Reimund P.; Schmid, Erwin; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Shcherbak, Iurii; Stehfest, Elke; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Thorburn, Peter; Waha, Katharina; Wall, Gerard W.; Wang, Enli; White, Jeffrey W.; Wolf, Joost; Zhao, Zhigan; Zhu, Yan

    2016-12-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify `method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

  6. A global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, K.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat's demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  7. WHE-PAGER Project: A new initiative in estimating global building inventory and its seismic vulnerability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, K.A.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Wald, D.J.; Greene, M.; Comartin, Craig

    2008-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquake’s Response (PAGER) Project and the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute’s World Housing Encyclopedia (WHE) are creating a global database of building stocks and their earthquake vulnerability. The WHE already represents a growing, community-developed public database of global housing and its detailed structural characteristics. It currently contains more than 135 reports on particular housing types in 40 countries. The WHE-PAGER effort extends the WHE in several ways: (1) by addressing non-residential construction; (2) by quantifying the prevalence of each building type in both rural and urban areas; (3) by addressing day and night occupancy patterns, (4) by adding quantitative vulnerability estimates from judgment or statistical observation; and (5) by analytically deriving alternative vulnerability estimates using in part laboratory testing.

  8. Estimation of Global 1km-grid Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Part II: Evaluations and Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murakami, K.; Sasai, T.; Kato, S.; Niwa, Y.; Saito, M.; Takagi, H.; Matsunaga, T.; Hiraki, K.; Maksyutov, S. S.; Yokota, T.

    2015-12-01

    Global terrestrial carbon cycle largely depends on a spatial pattern in land cover type, which is heterogeneously-distributed over regional and global scales. Many studies have been trying to reveal distribution of carbon exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and atmosphere for understanding global carbon cycle dynamics by using terrestrial biosphere models, satellite data, inventory data, and so on. However, most studies remained within several tens of kilometers grid spatial resolution, and the results have not been enough to understand the detailed pattern of carbon exchanges based on ecological community and to evaluate the carbon stocks by forest ecosystems in each countries. Improving the sophistication of spatial resolution is obviously necessary to enhance the accuracy of carbon exchanges. Moreover, the improvement may contribute to global warming awareness, policy makers and other social activities. We show global terrestrial carbon exchanges (net ecosystem production, net primary production, and gross primary production) with 1km-grid resolution. The methodology for these estimations are shown in the 2015 AGU FM poster "Estimation of Global 1km-grid Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Part I: Developing Inputs and Modelling". In this study, we evaluated the carbon exchanges in various regions with other approaches. We used the satellite-driven biosphere model (BEAMS) as our estimations, GOSAT L4A CO2 flux data, NEP retrieved by NICAM and CarbonTracer2013 flux data, for period from Jun 2001 to Dec 2012. The temporal patterns for this period were indicated similar trends between BEAMS, GOSAT, NICAM, and CT2013 in many sub-continental regions. Then, we estimated the terrestrial carbon exchanges in each countries, and could indicated the temporal patterns of the exchanges in large carbon stock regions.Global terrestrial carbon cycle largely depends on a spatial pattern of land cover type, which is heterogeneously-distributed over regional and global scales. Many

  9. A First Approach to Global Runoff Simulation using Satellite Rainfall Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hong, Yang; Adler, Robert F.; Hossain, Faisal; Curtis, Scott; Huffman, George J.

    2007-01-01

    Many hydrological models have been introduced in the hydrological literature to predict runoff but few of these have become common planning or decision-making tools, either because the data requirements are substantial or because the modeling processes are too complicated for operational application. On the other hand, progress in regional or global rainfall-runoff simulation has been constrained by the difficulty of measuring spatiotemporal variability of the primary causative factor, i.e. rainfall fluxes, continuously over space and time. Building on progress in remote sensing technology, researchers have improved the accuracy, coverage, and resolution of rainfall estimates by combining imagery from infrared, passive microwave, and space-borne radar sensors. Motivated by the recent increasing availability of global remote sensing data for estimating precipitation and describing land surface characteristics, this note reports a ballpark assessment of quasi-global runoff computed by incorporating satellite rainfall data and other remote sensing products in a relatively simple rainfall-runoff simulation approach: the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) runoff Curve Number (CN) method. Using an Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) as a proxy of antecedent moisture conditions, this note estimates time-varying NRCS-CN values determined by the 5-day normalized API. Driven by multi-year (1998-2006) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis, quasi-global runoff was retrospectively simulated with the NRCS-CN method and compared to Global Runoff Data Centre data at global and catchment scales. Results demonstrated the potential for using this simple method when diagnosing runoff values from satellite rainfall for the globe and for medium to large river basins. This work was done with the simple NRCS-CN method as a first-cut approach to understanding the challenges that lie ahead in advancing the satellite-based inference of

  10. Estimation of cauliflower mass transfer parameters during convective drying

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sahin, Medine; Doymaz, İbrahim

    2017-02-01

    The study was conducted to evaluate the effect of pre-treatments such as citric acid and hot water blanching and air temperature on drying and rehydration characteristics of cauliflower slices. Experiments were carried out at four different drying air temperatures of 50, 60, 70 and 80 °C with the air velocity of 2.0 m/s. It was observed that drying and rehydration characteristics of cauliflower slices were greatly influenced by air temperature and pre-treatment. Six commonly used mathematical models were evaluated to predict the drying kinetics of cauliflower slices. The Midilli et al. model described the drying behaviour of cauliflower slices at all temperatures better than other models. The values of effective moisture diffusivities ( D eff ) were determined using Fick's law of diffusion and were between 4.09 × 10-9 and 1.88 × 10-8 m2/s. Activation energy was estimated by an Arrhenius type equation and was 23.40, 29.09 and 26.39 kJ/mol for citric acid, blanch and control samples, respectively.

  11. White Dwarf Mass Estimation with X-ray Spectroscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayashi, T.

    2017-03-01

    I present X-ray spectral modeling of intermediate polars (IPs) and its application to Suzaku satellite data. The intrinsic thermal X-rays are modeled by integrating the plasma emissions of various temperatures in the post-shock accretion column (PSAC). The physical quantity distributions for the thermal spectral model is calculated from quasi-one-dimensional hydrodynamics. The PSAC calculation includes especially the dipolar geometry and variation of the specific accretion rate. The X-ray reflection from the white dwarf (WD) is modeled by a Monte Carlo simulation. In this simulation, the PSAC irradiates a cool, neutral and spherical WD with the various thermal spectra from the corresponding positions in the PSAC according to the thermal spectral model. The coherent and incoherent scattering, the photoelectric absorption, and Kα and Kβ re-emission of iron and nickel are taken into account for the photons arriving at the WD. The constructed X-ray spectral model is applied to EX Hya and V1223 Sgr, finding 0.65+0.11 –0.12 M⊙ and 0.91+0.08–0.03 M⊙, respectively. Their specific accretion rates are estimated at 0.069+0.33–0.045 g cm–2 s-1 and > 2 g cm–2 s-1, respectively, while the reflecting angles are 78.0–1.6+1.4 deg and 66.2+2.5–2.3 deg, respectively.

  12. Estimation of cauliflower mass transfer parameters during convective drying

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sahin, Medine; Doymaz, İbrahim

    2016-05-01

    The study was conducted to evaluate the effect of pre-treatments such as citric acid and hot water blanching and air temperature on drying and rehydration characteristics of cauliflower slices. Experiments were carried out at four different drying air temperatures of 50, 60, 70 and 80 °C with the air velocity of 2.0 m/s. It was observed that drying and rehydration characteristics of cauliflower slices were greatly influenced by air temperature and pre-treatment. Six commonly used mathematical models were evaluated to predict the drying kinetics of cauliflower slices. The Midilli et al. model described the drying behaviour of cauliflower slices at all temperatures better than other models. The values of effective moisture diffusivities (D eff ) were determined using Fick's law of diffusion and were between 4.09 × 10-9 and 1.88 × 10-8 m2/s. Activation energy was estimated by an Arrhenius type equation and was 23.40, 29.09 and 26.39 kJ/mol for citric acid, blanch and control samples, respectively.

  13. Improving Global Mass Flux Solutions from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Through Forward Modeling and Continuous Time Correlation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sabaka, T. J.; Rowlands, D. D.; Luthcke, S. B.; Boy, J.-P.

    2010-01-01

    We describe Earth's mass flux from April 2003 through November 2008 by deriving a time series of mas cons on a global 2deg x 2deg equal-area grid at 10 day intervals. We estimate the mass flux directly from K band range rate (KBRR) data provided by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Using regularized least squares, we take into account the underlying process dynamics through continuous space and time-correlated constraints. In addition, we place the mascon approach in the context of other filtering techniques, showing its equivalence to anisotropic, nonsymmetric filtering, least squares collocation, and Kalman smoothing. We produce mascon time series from KBRR data that have and have not been corrected (forward modeled) for hydrological processes and fmd that the former produce superior results in oceanic areas by minimizing signal leakage from strong sources on land. By exploiting the structure of the spatiotemporal constraints, we are able to use a much more efficient (in storage and computation) inversion algorithm based upon the conjugate gradient method. This allows us to apply continuous rather than piecewise continuous time-correlated constraints, which we show via global maps and comparisons with ocean-bottom pressure gauges, to produce time series with reduced random variance and full systematic signal. Finally, we present a preferred global model, a hybrid whose oceanic portions are derived using forward modeling of hydrology but whose land portions are not, and thus represent a pure GRACE-derived signal.

  14. A Global Mass Balance of Isotope Ratios in Hydrologic Fluxes Provides Constraints on Terrestrial and Oceanic Water Cycling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Good, S. P.; Noone, D. C.; Kurita, N.; Benetti, M.; Bowen, G. J.

    2014-12-01

    The global budget of isotope ratios in the Earth's water cycle is poorly understood because of large uncertainties in the isotopic composition of continental evapotranspiration. Additional uncertainties exist in the global pattern of marine boundary layer vapor D/H isotope ratios and the magnitude of their influence on oceanic evaporation. Here, we use satellite retrievals of marine boundary layer vapor HDO and H2O from the Tropospheric Emissions Spectrometer (TES) corrected to match surface vapor collected during cruises in the Pacific, Atlantic, Indian, and Arctic Oceans to resolve the global D/H isotope ratio budget. After our correction, satellite retrievals are un-biased, and have an average error of 14 permil when compared with 1341 satellite retrievals that were co-located with surface observations. Using TES retrieval spanning the globe, we calculate the global oceanic evaporation flux isotopic composition as approximately -30 permil, and combined with estimates of precipitation isotope ratios, a global mass balance is applied to quantify terrestrial evapotranspiration and runoff composition. The flux-weighted average isotopic composition of precipitation is estimated at approximately -37 permil, with oceanic precipitation having a value of approximately -32 permil and terrestrial precipitation having a value of approximately -52 permil. Based on our mass balance, terrestrial evapotranspiration has a flux-weighted average composition of -69 permil and terrestrial runoff has an average composition of -16 permil, which corresponds to a terrestrial enrichment of 37 permil for runoff relative to terrestrial precipitation. Knowledge of the entire HDO budget provides constraints on terrestrial evaporation/transpiration partitioning as well as tropospheric entrainment of moisture into the boundary layer, both poorly understood components of the global hydrologic cycle. These calculations provide a critical test of an essential global closure theory upon which many

  15. The Global Burden of Latent Tuberculosis Infection: A Re-estimation Using Mathematical Modelling

    PubMed Central

    Houben, Rein M. G. J.

    2016-01-01

    Background The existing estimate of the global burden of latent TB infection (LTBI) as “one-third” of the world population is nearly 20 y old. Given the importance of controlling LTBI as part of the End TB Strategy for eliminating TB by 2050, changes in demography and scientific understanding, and progress in TB control, it is important to re-assess the global burden of LTBI. Methods and Findings We constructed trends in annual risk in infection (ARI) for countries between 1934 and 2014 using a combination of direct estimates of ARI from LTBI surveys (131 surveys from 1950 to 2011) and indirect estimates of ARI calculated from World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates of smear positive TB prevalence from 1990 to 2014. Gaussian process regression was used to generate ARIs for country-years without data and to represent uncertainty. Estimated ARI time-series were applied to the demography in each country to calculate the number and proportions of individuals infected, recently infected (infected within 2 y), and recently infected with isoniazid (INH)-resistant strains. Resulting estimates were aggregated by WHO region. We estimated the contribution of existing infections to TB incidence in 2035 and 2050. In 2014, the global burden of LTBI was 23.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 20.4%–26.4%), amounting to approximately 1.7 billion people. WHO South-East Asia, Western-Pacific, and Africa regions had the highest prevalence and accounted for around 80% of those with LTBI. Prevalence of recent infection was 0.8% (95% UI: 0.7%–0.9%) of the global population, amounting to 55.5 (95% UI: 48.2–63.8) million individuals currently at high risk of TB disease, of which 10.9% (95% UI:10.2%–11.8%) was isoniazid-resistant. Current LTBI alone, assuming no additional infections from 2015 onwards, would be expected to generate TB incidences in the region of 16.5 per 100,000 per year in 2035 and 8.3 per 100,000 per year in 2050. Limitations included the quantity and

  16. Estimating 40 years of nitrogen deposition in global biomes using the SCIAMACHY NO2 column

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lu, Xuehe; Zhang, Xiuying; Liu, Jinxun; Jin, Jiaxin

    2016-01-01

    Owing to human activity, global nitrogen (N) cycles have been altered. In the past 100 years, global N deposition has increased. Currently, the monitoring and estimating of N deposition and the evaluation of its effects on global carbon budgets are the focus of many researchers. NO2 columns retrieved by space-borne sensors provide us with a new way of exploring global N cycles and these have the ability to estimate N deposition. However, the time range limitation of NO2 columns makes the estimation of long timescale N deposition difficult. In this study we used ground-based NOx emission data to expand the density of NO2columns, and 40 years of N deposition (1970–2009) was inverted using the multivariate linear model with expanded NO2 columns. The dynamic of N deposition was examined in both global and biome scales. The results show that the average N deposition was 0.34 g N m–2 year–1 in the 2000s, which was an increase of 38.4% compared with the 1970s’. The total N deposition in different biomes is unbalanced. N deposition is only 38.0% of the global total in forest biomes; this is made up of 25.9%, 11.3, and 0.7% in tropical, temperate, and boreal forests, respectively. As N-limited biomes, there was little increase of N deposition in boreal forests. However, N deposition has increased by a total of 59.6% in tropical forests and croplands, which are N-rich biomes. Such characteristics may influence the effects on global carbon budgets.

  17. Estimating Climatological Bias Errors for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adler, Robert; Gu, Guojun; Huffman, George

    2012-01-01

    A procedure is described to estimate bias errors for mean precipitation by using multiple estimates from different algorithms, satellite sources, and merged products. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly product is used as a base precipitation estimate, with other input products included when they are within +/- 50% of the GPCP estimates on a zonal-mean basis (ocean and land separately). The standard deviation s of the included products is then taken to be the estimated systematic, or bias, error. The results allow one to examine monthly climatologies and the annual climatology, producing maps of estimated bias errors, zonal-mean errors, and estimated errors over large areas such as ocean and land for both the tropics and the globe. For ocean areas, where there is the largest question as to absolute magnitude of precipitation, the analysis shows spatial variations in the estimated bias errors, indicating areas where one should have more or less confidence in the mean precipitation estimates. In the tropics, relative bias error estimates (s/m, where m is the mean precipitation) over the eastern Pacific Ocean are as large as 20%, as compared with 10%-15% in the western Pacific part of the ITCZ. An examination of latitudinal differences over ocean clearly shows an increase in estimated bias error at higher latitudes, reaching up to 50%. Over land, the error estimates also locate regions of potential problems in the tropics and larger cold-season errors at high latitudes that are due to snow. An empirical technique to area average the gridded errors (s) is described that allows one to make error estimates for arbitrary areas and for the tropics and the globe (land and ocean separately, and combined). Over the tropics this calculation leads to a relative error estimate for tropical land and ocean combined of 7%, which is considered to be an upper bound because of the lack of sign-of-the-error canceling when integrating over different areas with a

  18. Effect of body composition methodology on estimates of fat mass heritability

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Background: Body fatness is influenced by both genetic and environmental factors. Previous studies have produced a wide range of estimates for the heritability of body fatness, ranging from 0.34-0.90 for body mass index (BMI), 0.59-0.83 for percent body fat, and 0.45-0.71 for fat mass. Little atte...

  19. Methodological Framework for World Health Organization Estimates of the Global Burden of Foodborne Disease

    PubMed Central

    Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Haagsma, Juanita A.; Angulo, Frederick J.; Bellinger, David C.; Cole, Dana; Döpfer, Dörte; Fazil, Aamir; Fèvre, Eric M.; Gibb, Herman J.; Hald, Tine; Kirk, Martyn D.; Lake, Robin J.; Maertens de Noordhout, Charline; Mathers, Colin D.; McDonald, Scott A.; Pires, Sara M.; Speybroeck, Niko; Thomas, M. Kate; Torgerson, Paul R.; Wu, Felicia; Havelaar, Arie H.; Praet, Nicolas

    2015-01-01

    Background The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs). This paper describes the methodological framework developed by FERG's Computational Task Force to transform epidemiological information into FBD burden estimates. Methods and Findings The global and regional burden of 31 FBDs was quantified, along with limited estimates for 5 other FBDs, using Disability-Adjusted Life Years in a hazard- and incidence-based approach. To accomplish this task, the following workflow was defined: outline of disease models and collection of epidemiological data; design and completion of a database template; development of an imputation model; identification of disability weights; probabilistic burden assessment; and estimating the proportion of the disease burden by each hazard that is attributable to exposure by food (i.e., source attribution). All computations were performed in R and the different functions were compiled in the R package 'FERG'. Traceability and transparency were ensured by sharing results and methods in an interactive way with all FERG members throughout the process. Conclusions We developed a comprehensive framework for estimating the global burden of FBDs, in which methodological simplicity and transparency were key elements. All the tools developed have been made available and can be translated into a user-friendly national toolkit for studying and monitoring food safety at the local level. PMID:26633883

  20. Improved estimates of global sea level change from Ice Sheets, glaciers and land water storage using GRACE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velicogna, I.; Hsu, C. W.; Ciraci, E.; Sutterley, T. C.

    2015-12-01

    We use observations of time variable gravity from GRACE to estimate mass changes for the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets, the Glaciers and Ice Caps (GIC) and land water storage for the time period 2002-2015 and evaluate their total contribution to sea level. We calculate regional sea level changes from these present day mass fluxes using an improved scaling factor for the GRACE data that accounts for the spatial and temporal variability of the observed signal. We calculate a separate scaling factor for the annual and the long-term components of the GRACE signal. To estimate the contribution of the GIC, we use a least square mascon approach and we re-analyze recent inventories to optimize the distribution of mascons and recover the GRACE signal more accurately. We find that overall, Greenland controls 43% of the global trend in eustatic sea level rise, 16% for Antarctica and 29% for the GIC. The contribution from the GIC is dominated by the mass loss of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, followed by Alaska, Patagonia and the High Mountains of Asia. We report a marked increase in mass loss for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. In Greenland, following the 2012 high summer melt, years 2013 and 2014 have slowed down the increase in mass loss, but our results will be updated with summer 2015 observations at the meeting. In Antarctica, the mass loss is still on the rise with increased contributions from the Amundsen Sea sector and surprisingly from the Wilkes Land sector of East Antarctica, including Victoria Land. Conversely, the Queen Maud Land sector experienced a large snowfall in 2009-2013 and has now resumed to a zero mass gain since 2013. We compare sea level changes from these GRACE derived mass fluxes after including the atmospheric and ocean loading signal with sea level change from satellite radar altimetry (AVISO) corrected for steric signal of the ocean using Argo measurements and find an excellent agreement in amplitude, phase and trend in these estimates

  1. Phobos mass estimations from MEX and Viking 1 data: influence of different noise sources and estimation strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kudryashova, M.; Rosenblatt, P.; Marty, J.-C.

    2015-08-01

    The mass of Phobos is an important parameter which, together with second-order gravity field coefficients and libration amplitude, constrains internal structure and nature of the moon. And thus, it needs to be known with high precision. Nevertheless, Phobos mass (GM, more precisely) estimated by different authors based on diverse data-sets and methods, varies by more than their 1-sigma error. The most complete lists of GM values are presented in the works of R. Jacobson (2010) and M. Paetzold et al. (2014) and include the estimations in the interval from (5.39 ± 0:03).10^5 (Smith et al., 1995) till (8.5 ± 0.7).10^5[m^3/s^2] (Williams et al., 1988). Furthermore, even the comparison of the estimations coming from the same estimation procedure applied to the consecutive flybys of the same spacecraft (s/c) shows big variations in GMs. The indicated behavior is very pronounced in the GM estimations stemming from the Viking1 flybys in February 1977 (as well as from MEX flybys, though in a smaller amplitude) and in this work we made an attempt to figure out its roots. The errors of Phobos GM estimations depend on the precision of the model (e.g. accuracy of Phobos a priori ephemeris and its a priori GM value) as well as on the radio-tracking measurements quality (noise, coverage, flyby distance). In the present work we are testing the impact of mentioned above error sources by means of simulations. We also consider the effect of the uncertainties in a priori Phobos positions on the GM estimations from real observations. Apparently, the strategy (i.e. splitting real observations in data-arcs, whether they stem from the close approaches of Phobos by spacecraft or from analysis of the s/c orbit evolution around Mars) of the estimations has an impact on the Phobos GM estimation.

  2. Yellow Fever in Africa: Estimating the Burden of Disease and Impact of Mass Vaccination from Outbreak and Serological Data

    PubMed Central

    Garske, Tini; Van Kerkhove, Maria D.; Yactayo, Sergio; Ronveaux, Olivier; Lewis, Rosamund F.; Staples, J. Erin; Perea, William; Ferguson, Neil M.

    2014-01-01

    Background Yellow fever is a vector-borne disease affecting humans and non-human primates in tropical areas of Africa and South America. While eradication is not feasible due to the wildlife reservoir, large scale vaccination activities in Africa during the 1940s to 1960s reduced yellow fever incidence for several decades. However, after a period of low vaccination coverage, yellow fever has resurged in the continent. Since 2006 there has been substantial funding for large preventive mass vaccination campaigns in the most affected countries in Africa to curb the rising burden of disease and control future outbreaks. Contemporary estimates of the yellow fever disease burden are lacking, and the present study aimed to update the previous estimates on the basis of more recent yellow fever occurrence data and improved estimation methods. Methods and Findings Generalised linear regression models were fitted to a dataset of the locations of yellow fever outbreaks within the last 25 years to estimate the probability of outbreak reports across the endemic zone. Environmental variables and indicators for the surveillance quality in the affected countries were used as covariates. By comparing probabilities of outbreak reports estimated in the regression with the force of infection estimated for a limited set of locations for which serological surveys were available, the detection probability per case and the force of infection were estimated across the endemic zone. The yellow fever burden in Africa was estimated for the year 2013 as 130,000 (95% CI 51,000–380,000) cases with fever and jaundice or haemorrhage including 78,000 (95% CI 19,000–180,000) deaths, taking into account the current level of vaccination coverage. The impact of the recent mass vaccination campaigns was assessed by evaluating the difference between the estimates obtained for the current vaccination coverage and for a hypothetical scenario excluding these vaccination campaigns. Vaccination campaigns

  3. Global stability for a class of mass action systems allowing for latency in tuberculosis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCluskey, C. Connell

    2008-02-01

    A very general compartmental model of the spread of an infectious disease with mass action incidence is given. The global stability of this system is completely determined using Lyapunov functions. The general system exhibits the traditional threshold behaviour. The dimension of the system is arbitrary, allowing, in particular, for detailed modelling of the distribution of latency times for tuberculosis.

  4. A New Method for Estimating the Coverage of Mass Vaccination Campaigns Against Poliomyelitis From Surveillance Data.

    PubMed

    O'Reilly, K M; Cori, A; Durry, E; Wadood, M Z; Bosan, A; Aylward, R B; Grassly, N C

    2015-12-01

    Mass vaccination campaigns with the oral poliovirus vaccine targeting children aged <5 years are a critical component of the global poliomyelitis eradication effort. Monitoring the coverage of these campaigns is essential to allow corrective action, but current approaches are limited by their cross-sectional nature, nonrandom sampling, reporting biases, and accessibility issues. We describe a new Bayesian framework using data augmentation and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate variation in vaccination coverage from children's vaccination histories investigated during surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis. We tested the method using simulated data with at least 200 cases and were able to detect undervaccinated groups if they exceeded 10% of all children and temporal changes in coverage of ±10% with greater than 90% sensitivity. Application of the method to data from Pakistan for 2010-2011 identified undervaccinated groups within the Balochistan/Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions, as well as temporal changes in coverage. The sizes of these groups are consistent with the multiple challenges faced by the program in these regions as a result of conflict and insecurity. Application of this new method to routinely collected data can be a useful tool for identifying poorly performing areas and assisting in eradication efforts.

  5. Synthesizing Global and Local Datasets to Estimate Jurisdictional Forest Carbon Fluxes in Berau, Indonesia

    PubMed Central

    Griscom, Bronson W.; Ellis, Peter W.; Baccini, Alessandro; Marthinus, Delon; Evans, Jeffrey S.; Ruslandi

    2016-01-01

    Background Forest conservation efforts are increasingly being implemented at the scale of sub-national jurisdictions in order to mitigate global climate change and provide other ecosystem services. We see an urgent need for robust estimates of historic forest carbon emissions at this scale, as the basis for credible measures of climate and other benefits achieved. Despite the arrival of a new generation of global datasets on forest area change and biomass, confusion remains about how to produce credible jurisdictional estimates of forest emissions. We demonstrate a method for estimating the relevant historic forest carbon fluxes within the Regency of Berau in eastern Borneo, Indonesia. Our method integrates best available global and local datasets, and includes a comprehensive analysis of uncertainty at the regency scale. Principal Findings and Significance We find that Berau generated 8.91 ± 1.99 million tonnes of net CO2 emissions per year during 2000–2010. Berau is an early frontier landscape where gross emissions are 12 times higher than gross sequestration. Yet most (85%) of Berau’s original forests are still standing. The majority of net emissions were due to conversion of native forests to unspecified agriculture (43% of total), oil palm (28%), and fiber plantations (9%). Most of the remainder was due to legal commercial selective logging (17%). Our overall uncertainty estimate offers an independent basis for assessing three other estimates for Berau. Two other estimates were above the upper end of our uncertainty range. We emphasize the importance of including an uncertainty range for all parameters of the emissions equation to generate a comprehensive uncertainty estimate–which has not been done before. We believe comprehensive estimates of carbon flux uncertainty are increasingly important as national and international institutions are challenged with comparing alternative estimates and identifying a credible range of historic emissions values

  6. Estimation of the contribution of intercontinental transport during the PEACE campaign by using a global model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takigawa, Masayuki; Sudo, Kengo; Akimoto, Hajime; Kita, Kazuyuki; Takegawa, Nobuyuki; Kondo, Yutaka; Takahashi, Masaaki

    2005-11-01

    A quasi-real-time calculation system for the global distribution of ozone (O3) and its precursors, including CO, NOx, and nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs), has been newly developed by using a 3-D chemical-transport model. The model is driven by meteorological data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and produces daily 7-day forecast of the distribution of chemical species. The model was used in daily flight planning for the Pacific Exploration of Asian Continental Emission (PEACE)-A and -B aircraft measurement campaigns in January and April-May 2002, respectively. Model-calculated meteorological fields show good agreement with aircraft observations. The model also reproduced events such as polluted air masses in the lower troposphere (LT) corresponding to post-frontal outflow, a high-concentration CO plume in the upper troposphere (UT) in late spring, and the observed plume that was transported by deep convection over central China. The amount of CO transported into the free troposphere (FT) by deep convection was estimated to be about 6 Tg CO over China in May 2002. Meridional and seasonal variations in the long-range transport (LRT) of CO tracers, Asian CO tracers, and CO tracers produced from the oxidation of CH4 and NMHCs were all evaluated using tagged CO tracers. LRT CO comprised about 36% of the total CO budget in December-February 2001/2002, and about 20% in March-May 2002 in the free troposphere over Japan. In late spring, the concentration of Asian CO over southern Japan decreased compared to that in winter because the wind direction shifted from northwesterly to easterly or southerly.

  7. A new estimation of global soil greenhouse gas fluxes using a simple data-oriented model.

    PubMed

    Hashimoto, Shoji

    2012-01-01

    Soil greenhouse gas fluxes (particularly CO(2), CH(4), and N(2)O) play important roles in climate change. However, despite the importance of these soil greenhouse gases, the number of reports on global soil greenhouse gas fluxes is limited. Here, new estimates are presented for global soil CO(2) emission (total soil respiration), CH(4) uptake, and N(2)O emission fluxes, using a simple data-oriented model. The estimated global fluxes for CO(2) emission, CH(4) uptake, and N(2)O emission were 78 Pg C yr(-1) (Monte Carlo 95% confidence interval, 64-95 Pg C yr(-1)), 18 Tg C yr(-1) (11-23 Tg C yr(-1)), and 4.4 Tg N yr(-1) (1.4-11.1 Tg N yr(-1)), respectively. Tropical regions were the largest contributor of all of the gases, particularly the CO(2) and N(2)O fluxes. The soil CO(2) and N(2)O fluxes had more pronounced seasonal patterns than the soil CH(4) flux. The collected estimates, including both the previous and the present estimates, demonstrate that the means of the best estimates from each study were 79 Pg C yr(-1) (291 Pg CO(2) yr(-1); coefficient of variation, CV = 13%, N = 6) for CO(2), 21 Tg C yr(-1) (29 Tg CH(4) yr(-1); CV = 24%, N = 24) for CH(4), and 7.8 Tg N yr(-1) (12.2 Tg N(2)O yr(-1); CV = 38%, N = 11) for N(2)O. For N(2)O, the mean of the estimates that was calculated by excluding the earliest two estimates was 6.6 Tg N yr(-1) (10.4 Tg N(2)O yr(-1); CV = 22%, N = 9). The reported estimates vary and have large degrees of uncertainty but their overall magnitudes are in general agreement. To further minimize the uncertainty of soil greenhouse gas flux estimates, it is necessary to build global databases and identify key processes in describing global soil greenhouse gas fluxes.

  8. Methane Emissions From Global Paddy Rice Agriculture - a New Estimate Based on DNDC Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hagen, S. C.; Li, C.; Salas, W.; Ingraham, P.; Li, J.; Beach, R.; Frolking, S.

    2012-12-01

    Roughly one-quarter of global methane emissions to the atmosphere come from the agricultural sector. Agricultural emissions are dominated by livestock (ruminants) and paddy-rice agriculture. We report on a new estimate of global methane emissions from paddy rice c.2010, based on DNDC model simulations of rice cropping around the world. We first generated a global map of rice cropping at 0.5°-resolution, based on existing global crop maps and various other published data. For each 0.5° grid cell that has rice agriculture, we simulated all rice cropping systems that our mapping indicated to be occurring there - irrigated and/or rainfed; single-rice, double-rice, triple-rice, and/or rice-rotated with other upland crops - under local climate and soil conditions, with assumptions about crop management (e.g., fertilizer type and amount, irrigation, flooding frequency and duration, manure application, tillage, crop residue management). We estimate global paddy rice emissions at 23 Tg CH4/yr from 120 Mha of rice paddies (land area) and 160 Mha of rice cropping (harvested area) for the baseline management scenario. We also report on the spatial distribution of these emissions, and the impacts of various management alternatives (flooding methods, fertilizer types, crop residue incorporation etc.) on yield, soil carbon sequestration and emissions of methane and nitrous oxide. For example, simulations with continuous flooding on all paddies increased simulated global paddy rice emissions to 33 Tg CH4/yr, while simulations where all fertilizer was applied as ammonium sulfate reduced simulated global paddy rice emissions to about 19 Tg CH4/yr. Simulated global paddy rice yield was about 320 Tg C in grain.

  9. Mass Balance Estimates of Louth Crater Water Ice and Climatic Implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bapst, J.; Byrne, S.

    2016-09-01

    We estimate the mass balance of the most-equatorward water ice mound on Mars, located in Louth crater (70N). It is expected to be ablating in the current climate. Our estimates include a wide range of atmospheric water abundances.

  10. Global estimation of effective plant rooting depth: Implications for hydrological modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Yuting; Donohue, Randall J.; McVicar, Tim R.

    2016-10-01

    Plant rooting depth (Zr) is a key parameter in hydrological and biogeochemical models, yet the global spatial distribution of Zr is largely unknown due to the difficulties in its direct measurement. Additionally, Zr observations are usually only representative of a single plant or several plants, which can differ greatly from the effective Zr over a modeling unit (e.g., catchment or grid-box). Here, we provide a global parameterization of an analytical Zr model that balances the marginal carbon cost and benefit of deeper roots, and produce a climatological (i.e., 1982-2010 average) global Zr map. To test the Zr estimates, we apply the estimated Zr in a highly transparent hydrological model (i.e., the Budyko-Choudhury-Porporato (BCP) model) to estimate mean annual actual evapotranspiration (E) across the globe. We then compare the estimated E with both water balance-based E observations at 32 major catchments and satellite grid-box retrievals across the globe. Our results show that the BCP model, when implemented with Zr estimated herein, optimally reproduced the spatial pattern of E at both scales (i.e., R2 = 0.94, RMSD = 74 mm yr-1 for catchments, and R2 = 0.90, RMSD = 125 mm yr-1 for grid-boxes) and provides improved model outputs when compared to BCP model results from two already existing global Zr data sets. These results suggest that our Zr estimates can be effectively used in state-of-the-art hydrological models, and potentially biogeochemical models, where the determination of Zr currently largely relies on biome type-based look-up tables.

  11. Global fire emission estimates (2007-2012) derived from inversion of formaldehyde columns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bauwens, Maite; Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Müller, Jean-Francois; De Smedt, Isabelle; Van Roozendael, Michel

    2014-05-01

    Wildfires have a strong impact on the chemistry and composition of the atmosphere and the radiative forcing. The fire emission estimates bear, however, important uncertainties due to the limited amount of field measurements, uncertainties in satellite burned area products, as well as empirical relations used for fuel type allocations. Atmospheric inversions are an alternative approach that provides new independent constraints on the fire estimates. This method involves measurements of trace gases combined with atmospheric models, where optimization algorithms are used to minimize the discrepancy between the model and the observations by adjusting the emission estimates. In this communication, we present global emission estimates of non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), inferred from inversion of formaldehyde (HCHO) columns retrieved from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) instrument (De Smedt et al., 2012). The IMAGESv2 global CTM provides the relationship between the emissions and the vertical columns. The Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFEDv3, van der Werf et al., 2010) is used as a priori bottom-up inventory in the model. The agreement between formaldehyde columns calculated by the IMAGESv2 model and the formaldehyde columns from GOME-2 is optimized using the adjoint modelling technique (Stavrakou et al., 2009). The obtained top-down fire emission estimates between 2007 and 2012 are available at the GlobEmission data portal (http://www.globemission.eu) on a monthly basis and at 0.5°x0.5° spatial resolution. The emission estimates are evaluated against three independent emission inventories: GFEDv3 (van der Werf et al., 2010), GFAS (Kaiser et al., 2012) and FINN (Wiedinmyer et al., 2011). Furthermore, simulated CO columns over the fire-affected regions will be compared with CO columns retrieved from the IASI sensor (George et al., 2009).

  12. Global precipitation estimates based on a technique for combining satellite-based estimates, rain gauge analysis, and NWP model precipitation information

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Rudolf, Bruno; Schneider, Udo; Keehn, Peter R.

    1995-01-01

    The 'satellite-gauge model' (SGM) technique is described for combining precipitation estimates from microwave satellite data, infrared satellite data, rain gauge analyses, and numerical weather prediction models into improved estimates of global precipitation. Throughout, monthly estimates on a 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees lat-long grid are employed. First, a multisatellite product is developed using a combination of low-orbit microwave and geosynchronous-orbit infrared data in the latitude range 40 degrees N - 40 degrees S (the adjusted geosynchronous precipitation index) and low-orbit microwave data alone at higher latitudes. Then the rain gauge analysis is brougth in, weighting each field by its inverse relative error variance to produce a nearly global, observationally based precipitation estimate. To produce a complete global estimate, the numerical model results are used to fill data voids in the combined satellite-gauge estimate. Our sequential approach to combining estimates allows a user to select the multisatellite estimate, the satellite-gauge estimate, or the full SGM estimate (observationally based estimates plus the model information). The primary limitation in the method is imperfections in the estimation of relative error for the individual fields. The SGM results for one year of data (July 1987 to June 1988) show important differences from the individual estimates, including model estimates as well as climatological estimates. In general, the SGM results are drier in the subtropics than the model and climatological results, reflecting the relatively dry microwave estimates that dominate the SGM in oceanic regions.

  13. Global mass fixer algorithms for conservative tracer transport in the ECMWF model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diamantakis, M.; Flemming, J.

    2014-01-01

    Various mass fixer algorithms (MFA) have been implemented in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of ECMWF to ensure mass conservation of atmospheric tracers within the Semi-Lagrangian (SL) advection scheme. Emphasis has been placed in implementing schemes that despite being primarily global in nature adjust the solution mostly in regions where the advected field has large gradients and therefore interpolation (transport) error is assumed larger. The MFA have been tested in weather forecast, idealised and atmospheric dispersion cases. Applying these fixers to specific humidity and cloud fields did not change the accuracy of 10 day forecasts. In other words, global mass tracer conservation is achieved without deteriorating the solution accuracy. However, for longer forecast timescales or for forecasts in which correlated species are transported, experiments suggest that MFA may improve IFS forecasts.

  14. Global mass fixer algorithms for conservative tracer transport in the ECMWF model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diamantakis, M.; Flemming, J.

    2014-05-01

    Various mass fixer algorithms (MFAs) have been implemented in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to ensure mass conservation of atmospheric tracers within the semi-Lagrangian (SL) advection scheme. Emphasis has been placed in implementing schemes that despite being primarily global in nature adjust the solution mostly in regions where the advected field has large gradients and therefore interpolation (transport) error is assumed larger. The MFAs have been tested in weather forecast, idealised and atmospheric dispersion cases. Applying these fixers to specific humidity and cloud fields did not change the accuracy of 10-day forecasts. In other words, global mass tracer conservation is achieved without deteriorating the solution accuracy. However, for longer forecast timescales or for forecasts in which correlated species are transported, experiments suggest that MFAs may improve IFS forecasts.

  15. Uncertainties and Systematic Effects on the estimate of stellar masses in high z galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salimbeni, S.; Fontana, A.; Giallongo, E.; Grazian, A.; Menci, N.; Pentericci, L.; Santini, P.

    2009-05-01

    We discuss the uncertainties and the systematic effects that exist in the estimates of the stellar masses of high redshift galaxies, using broad band photometry, and how they affect the deduced galaxy stellar mass function. We use at this purpose the latest version of the GOODS-MUSIC catalog. In particular, we discuss the impact of different synthetic models, of the assumed initial mass function and of the selection band. Using Chariot & Bruzual 2007 and Maraston 2005 models we find masses lower than those obtained from Bruzual & Chariot 2003 models. In addition, we find a slight trend as a function of the mass itself comparing these two mass determinations with that from Bruzual & Chariot 2003 models. As consequence, the derived galaxy stellar mass functions show diverse shapes, and their slope depends on the assumed models. Despite these differences, the overall results and scenario is observed in all these cases. The masses obtained with the assumption of the Chabrier initial mass function are in average 0.24 dex lower than those from the Salpeter assumption, at all redshifts, causing a shift of galaxy stellar mass function of the same amount. Finally, using a 4.5 μm-selected sample instead of a Ks-selected one, we add a new population of highly absorbed, dusty galaxies at z~=2-3 of relatively low masses, yielding stronger constraints on the slope of the galaxy stellar mass function at lower masses.

  16. Experimental design for estimating parameters of rate-limited mass transfer: Analysis of stream tracer studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wagner, B.J.; Harvey, J.W.

    1997-01-01

    Tracer experiments are valuable tools for analyzing the transport characteristics of streams and their interactions with shallow groundwater. The focus of this work is the design of tracer studies in high-gradient stream systems subject to advection, dispersion, groundwater inflow, and exchange between the active channel and zones in surface or subsurface water where flow is stagnant or slow moving. We present a methodology for (1) evaluating and comparing alternative stream tracer experiment designs and (2) identifying those combinations of stream transport properties that pose limitations to parameter estimation and therefore a challenge to tracer test design. The methodology uses the concept of global parameter uncertainty analysis, which couples solute transport simulation with parameter uncertainty analysis in a Monte Carlo framework. Two general conclusions resulted from this work. First, the solute injection and sampling strategy has an important effect on the reliability of transport parameter estimates. We found that constant injection with sampling through concentration rise, plateau, and fall provided considerably more reliable parameter estimates than a pulse injection across the spectrum of transport scenarios likely encountered in high-gradient streams. Second, for a given tracer test design, the uncertainties in mass transfer and storage-zone parameter estimates are strongly dependent on the experimental Damkohler number, DaI, which is a dimensionless combination of the rates of exchange between the stream and storage zones, the stream-water velocity, and the stream reach length of the experiment. Parameter uncertainties are lowest at DaI values on the order of 1.0. When DaI values are much less than 1.0 (owing to high velocity, long exchange timescale, and/or short reach length), parameter uncertainties are high because only a small amount of tracer interacts with storage zones in the reach. For the opposite conditions (DaI >> 1.0), solute exchange

  17. A new method to estimate average hourly global solar radiation on the horizontal surface

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pandey, Pramod K.; Soupir, Michelle L.

    2012-10-01

    A new model, Global Solar Radiation on Horizontal Surface (GSRHS), was developed to estimate the average hourly global solar radiation on the horizontal surfaces (Gh). The GSRHS model uses the transmission function (Tf,ij), which was developed to control hourly global solar radiation, for predicting solar radiation. The inputs of the model were: hour of day, day (Julian) of year, optimized parameter values, solar constant (H0), latitude, and longitude of the location of interest. The parameter values used in the model were optimized at a location (Albuquerque, NM), and these values were applied into the model for predicting average hourly global solar radiations at four different locations (Austin, TX; El Paso, TX; Desert Rock, NV; Seattle, WA) of the United States. The model performance was assessed using correlation coefficient (r), Mean Absolute Bias Error (MABE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and coefficient of determinations (R2). The sensitivities of parameter to prediction were estimated. Results show that the model performed very well. The correlation coefficients (r) range from 0.96 to 0.99, while coefficients of determination (R2) range from 0.92 to 0.98. For daily and monthly prediction, error percentages (i.e. MABE and RMSE) were less than 20%. The approach we proposed here can be potentially useful for predicting average hourly global solar radiation on the horizontal surface for different locations, with the use of readily available data (i.e. latitude and longitude of the location) as inputs.

  18. Internally Consistent MODIS Estimate of Aerosol Clear-Sky Radiative Effect Over the Global Oceans

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Remer, Lorraine A.; Kaufman, Yoram J.

    2004-01-01

    Modern satellite remote sensing, and in particular the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), offers a measurement-based pathway to estimate global aerosol radiative effects and aerosol radiative forcing. Over the Oceans, MODIS retrieves the total aerosol optical thickness, but also reports which combination of the 9 different aerosol models was used to obtain the retrieval. Each of the 9 models is characterized by a size distribution and complex refractive index, which through Mie calculations correspond to a unique set of single scattering albedo, assymetry parameter and spectral extinction for each model. The combination of these sets of optical parameters weighted by the optical thickness attributed to each model in the retrieval produces the best fit to the observed radiances at the top of the atmosphere. Thus the MODIS Ocean aerosol retrieval provides us with (1) An observed distribution of global aerosol loading, and (2) An internally-consistent, observed, distribution of aerosol optical models that when used in combination will best represent the radiances at the top of the atmosphere. We use these two observed global distributions to initialize the column climate model by Chou and Suarez to calculate the aerosol radiative effect at top of the atmosphere and the radiative efficiency of the aerosols over the global oceans. We apply the analysis to 3 years of MODIS retrievals from the Terra satellite and produce global and regional, seasonally varying, estimates of aerosol radiative effect over the clear-sky oceans.

  19. Estimating global carbon uptake by lichens and bryophytes with a process-based model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porada, P.; Weber, B.; Elbert, W.; Pöschl, U.; Kleidon, A.

    2013-11-01

    Lichens and bryophytes are abundant globally and they may even form the dominant autotrophs in (sub)polar ecosystems, in deserts and at high altitudes. Moreover, they can be found in large amounts as epiphytes in old-growth forests. Here, we present the first process-based model which estimates the net carbon uptake by these organisms at the global scale, thus assessing their significance for biogeochemical cycles. The model uses gridded climate data and key properties of the habitat (e.g. disturbance intervals) to predict processes which control net carbon uptake, namely photosynthesis, respiration, water uptake and evaporation. It relies on equations used in many dynamical vegetation models, which are combined with concepts specific to lichens and bryophytes, such as poikilohydry or the effect of water content on CO2 diffusivity. To incorporate the great functional variation of lichens and bryophytes at the global scale, the model parameters are characterised by broad ranges of possible values instead of a single, globally uniform value. The predicted terrestrial net uptake of 0.34 to 3.3 Gt yr-1 of carbon and global patterns of productivity are in accordance with empirically-derived estimates. Considering that the assimilated carbon can be invested in processes such as weathering or nitrogen fixation, lichens and bryophytes may play a significant role in biogeochemical cycles.

  20. Estimating global carbon uptake by lichens and bryophytes with a process-based model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porada, P.; Weber, B.; Elbert, W.; Pöschl, U.; Kleidon, A.

    2013-02-01

    Lichens and bryophytes are abundant globally and they may even form the dominant autotrophs in (sub)polar ecosystems, in deserts and at high altitudes. Moreover, they can be found in large amounts as epiphytes in old-growth forests. Here, we present the first process-based model which estimates the net carbon uptake by these organisms at the global scale, thus assessing their significance for biogeochemical cycles. The model uses gridded climate data and key properties of the habitat (e.g. disturbance intervals) to predict processes which control net carbon uptake, namely photosynthesis, respiration, water uptake and evaporation. It relies on equations used in many dynamical vegetation models, which are combined with concepts specific to lichens and bryophytes, such as poikilohydry or the effect of water content on CO2 diffusivity. To incorporate the great functional variation of lichens and bryophytes at the global scale, the model parameters are characterised by broad ranges of possible values instead of a single, globally uniform value. The predicted terrestrial net carbon uptake of 0.34 to 3.3 (Gt C) yr-1 and global patterns of productivity are in accordance with empirically-derived estimates. Considering that the assimilated carbon can be invested in processes such as weathering or nitrogen fixation, lichens and bryophytes may play a significant role in biogeochemical cycles.

  1. EFFECT OF UNCERTAINTIES IN STELLAR MODEL PARAMETERS ON ESTIMATED MASSES AND RADII OF SINGLE STARS

    SciTech Connect

    Basu, Sarbani; Verner, Graham A.; Chaplin, William J.; Elsworth, Yvonne E-mail: gav@bison.ph.bham.ac.uk E-mail: y.p.elsworth@bham.ac.uk

    2012-02-10

    Accurate and precise values of radii and masses of stars are needed to correctly estimate properties of extrasolar planets. We examine the effect of uncertainties in stellar model parameters on estimates of the masses, radii, and average densities of solar-type stars. We find that in the absence of seismic data on solar-like oscillations, stellar masses can be determined to a greater accuracy than either stellar radii or densities; but to get reasonably accurate results the effective temperature, log g, and metallicity must be measured to high precision. When seismic data are available, stellar density is the most well-determined property, followed by radius, with mass the least well-determined property. Uncertainties in stellar convection, quantified in terms of uncertainties in the value of the mixing length parameter, cause the most significant errors in the estimates of stellar properties.

  2. Estimation of Croplands in West Africa using Global Land Cover and Land Use Datasets: Preliminary Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adhikari, P.; de Beurs, K.

    2013-12-01

    Africa is vulnerable to the effects of global climate change resulting in reduced agricultural production and worsening food security. Studies show that Africa has the lowest cereal yield compared to other regions of the world. The situation is particularly dire in East, Central and West Africa. Despite their low cereal yield, the population of East, Central and West Africa has doubled between 1980 and 2007. Furthermore, West Africa has a history of severe and long droughts which have occasionally caused widespread famine. To understand how global climate change and land cover change have impacted crop production (yield) it is important to estimate croplands in the region. The objective of this study is to compare ten publicly available land cover and land use datasets, covering different time periods, to estimate croplands in West Africa. The land cover and land use data sets used cover the period from early 1990s to 2010. Preliminary results show a high variability in cropland estimates. For example, in Benin, the estimated cropland area varies from 2.5 to 21% of the total area, while it varies from 3 to 8% in Niger. Datasets with a finer resolution (≤ 1,000 m) have consistently estimated comparable cropland areas across all countries. Several categorical verification statistics such as probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR) and critical success index are also used to analyze the correspondence between estimated and observed cropland pixels at the scales of 1 Km and 10 Km.

  3. Regularized estimation of vertical total electron content from Global Positioning System data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arikan, F.; Erol, C. B.; Arikan, O.

    2003-12-01

    A novel regularization technique which can combine signals from all Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites for a given instant and a given receiver is developed to estimate the vertical total electron content (VTEC) values for the 24-hour period without missing any important features in the temporal domain. The algorithm is based on the minimization of a cost function which also includes a high pass penalty filter. Optional weighting function and sliding window median filter are added to enrich the processing and smoothing of the data. The developed regularized estimation algorithm is applied to GPS data for various locations for the solar maximum week of 23-28 April 2001. The parameter set that is required by the estimation algorithm is chosen optimally using appropriate error functions. This robust and optimum parameter set can be used for all latitudes and for both quiet and disturbed days. It is observed that the estimated TEC values are in general accordance with the TEC estimates from other global ionospheric maps, especially for quiet days and midlatitudes. Owing to its 30 s time resolution, the regularized VTEC estimates from the developed algorithm are very successful in representation and tracking of sudden temporal variations of the ionosphere, especially for high latitudes and during ionospheric disturbances.

  4. Improving the estimation of terrestrial gross primary productivity by downscaling global sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cescatti, A.; Duveiller, G.

    2015-12-01

    The synoptic nature of satellite remote sensing makes this technique a key tool to contribute to estimating the amount of Carbon fixed by vegetation at global scale. From the various types of information that can be derived from space, the recent capacity to create global datasets of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) may prove to be a game-changer. SIF is a signal emitted by the photosynthetic machinery itself that, under the illumination conditions in which it can be estimated by satellite, has been shown to be proportional to gross primary productivity (GPP). However, this relationship is dependent on vegetation types that are typically spatially mixed at the coarse spatial resolution of SIF datasets (at best 0.5°), which in turn is a consequence of the complexity of the SIF retrieval itself. This study demonstrates how 0.5° SIF derived from GOME-2 data can be downscaled to a more adequate spatial resolution of 0.05° by combining 3 explanatory biophysical variables derived from the MODIS sensor (NDVI, land surface temperature and evapotranspiration) under a semi-empirical light-use efficiency framework. The finer spatial resolution results in a cleaner signal when aggregating it per land cover type. The signal is also better correlated in time with GPP estimated from flux towers, reaching the same level of performance than global GPP products calibrated on such flux towers and driven by meteorological and remote sensing variables (other than SIF). Establishing linear relationships between SIF and flux-tower GPP at vegetation type level allows to estimate values of global terrestrial vegetation gross productivity that have different magnitude but similar temporal patterns as other GPP products. Based on downscaled SIF, the mean global GPP values over the period 2007 to 2013 are (for deciduous broadleaf and mixed forests) 13.7, (for evergreen needleleaf forests) 2.5, (for grasslands) 12.5 and (savannahs and woody savannas) 36.8 Pg of Carbon per year.

  5. Future global water resources with respect to climate change and water withdrawals as estimated by a dynamic global vegetation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murray, S. J.; Foster, P. N.; Prentice, I. C.

    2012-07-01

    SummaryThe Land-surface Processes and eXchanges (LPX) dynamic global vegetation model, which incorporates process-based representations of the terrestrial biosphere, is used to simulate the effects of climatic change (via pattern-scaled temperature change scenarios based on six general circulation models) on global and large catchment freshwater resources towards the end of the 21st century. Socio-economic change is addressed by using water withdrawal estimates from the WaterGAP hydrological model. Climate change and population growth together increase water stress in many regions, particularly between 10°N and 50°N, for 2070-2099 relative to 1961-1990. Changes in runoff are most highly correlated with precipitation in 75% of the large global catchments tested. However, in all catchments the runoff ratio increases between these periods. This increase depends on vegetation playing a role: through physiological responses to enhanced carbon dioxide concentrations and also regionally through decreased fractional plant coverage. With increasing temperature, global mean annual precipitation is shown to increase in many regions, including some which are densely populated (e.g. the Yangtze catchment). This increase leads to a slight alleviation in the numbers of people residing in highly water-stressed environments (relative to lower-end temperature projections), providing associated changes to the timings of runoff allow the water resource to be usable to the same extent. This research predominantly focuses on climate changes scaled to an increase of 2 °C by 2050. It suggests that variability in the magnitude of runoff outputs among GCM forcings for this degree of warming requires further constraint in order to better inform regional water resources policy.

  6. Parameter estimation and control for a neural mass model based on the unscented Kalman filter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Xian; Gao, Qing

    2013-10-01

    Recent progress in Kalman filters to estimate states and parameters in nonlinear systems has provided the possibility of applying such approaches to neural systems. We here apply the nonlinear method of unscented Kalman filters (UKFs) to observe states and estimate parameters in a neural mass model that can simulate distinct rhythms in electroencephalography (EEG) including dynamical evolution during epilepsy seizures. We demonstrate the efficiency of the UKF in estimating states and parameters. We also develop an UKF-based control strategy to modulate the dynamics of the neural mass model. In this strategy the UKF plays the role of observing states, and the control law is constructed via the estimated states. We demonstrate the feasibility of using such a strategy to suppress epileptiform spikes in the neural mass model.

  7. Probabilistic Estimates of Global Mean Sea Level and its Underlying Processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hay, C.; Morrow, E.; Kopp, R. E.; Mitrovica, J. X.

    2015-12-01

    Local sea level can vary significantly from the global mean value due to a suite of processes that includes ongoing sea-level changes due to the last ice age, land water storage, ocean circulation changes, and non-uniform sea-level changes that arise when modern-day land ice rapidly melts. Understanding these sources of spatial and temporal variability is critical to estimating past and present sea-level change and projecting future sea-level rise. Using two probabilistic techniques, a multi-model Kalman smoother and Gaussian process regression, we have reanalyzed 20th century tide gauge observations to produce a new estimate of global mean sea level (GMSL). Our methods allow us to extract global information from the sparse tide gauge field by taking advantage of the physics-based and model-derived geometry of the contributing processes. Both methods provide constraints on the sea-level contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). The Kalman smoother tests multiple discrete models of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), probabilistically computing the most likely GIA model given the observations, while the Gaussian process regression characterizes the prior covariance structure of a suite of GIA models and then uses this structure to estimate the posterior distribution of local rates of GIA-induced sea-level change. We present the two methodologies, the model-derived geometries of the underlying processes, and our new probabilistic estimates of GMSL and GIA.

  8. Improved estimates of global ocean circulation, heat transport and mixing from hydrographic data.

    PubMed

    Ganachaud, A; Wunsch, C

    2000-11-23

    Through its ability to transport large amounts of heat, fresh water and nutrients, the ocean is an essential regulator of climate. The pathways and mechanisms of this transport and its stability are critical issues in understanding the present state of climate and the possibilities of future changes. Recently, global high-quality hydrographic data have been gathered in the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE), to obtain an accurate picture of the present circulation. Here we combine the new data from high-resolution trans-oceanic sections and current meters with climatological wind fields, biogeochemical balances and improved a priori error estimates in an inverse model, to improve estimates of the global circulation and heat fluxes. Our solution resolves globally vertical mixing across surfaces of equal density, with coefficients in the range (3-12) x 10(-4) m2 s(-1). Net deep-water production rates amount to (15 +/- 12) x 10(6) m3 s(-1) in the North Atlantic Ocean and (21 +/- 6) x 10(6) m3 s(-1) in the Southern Ocean. Our estimates provide a new reference state for future climate studies with rigorous estimates of the uncertainties.

  9. Sensitivity of contemporary sea level trends in a global ocean state estimate to effects of geothermal fluxes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piecuch, Christopher G.; Heimbach, Patrick; Ponte, Rui M.; Forget, Gaël

    2015-12-01

    Geothermal fluxes constitute a sizable fraction of the present-day Earth net radiative imbalance and corresponding ocean heat uptake. Model simulations of contemporary sea level that impose a geothermal flux boundary condition are becoming increasingly common. To quantify the impact of geothermal fluxes on model estimates of contemporary (1993-2010) sea level changes, two ocean circulation model experiments are compared. The two simulations are based on a global ocean state estimate, produced by the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) consortium, and differ only with regard to whether geothermal forcing is applied as a boundary condition. Geothermal forcing raises the global-mean sea level trend by 0.11 mm yr-1 in the perturbation experiment by suppressing a cooling trend present in the baseline solution below 2000 m. The imposed forcing also affects regional sea level trends. The Southern Ocean is particularly sensitive. In this region, anomalous heat redistribution due to geothermal fluxes results in steric height trends of up to ± 1 mm yr-1 in the perturbation experiment relative to the baseline simulation. Analysis of a passive tracer experiment suggests that the geothermal input itself is transported by horizontal diffusion, resulting in more thermal expansion over deeper ocean basins. Thermal expansion in the perturbation simulation gives rise to bottom pressure increase over shallower regions and decrease over deeper areas relative to the baseline run, consistent with mass redistribution expected for deep ocean warming. These results elucidate the influence of geothermal fluxes on sea level rise and global heat budgets in model simulations of contemporary ocean circulation and climate.

  10. Contributions of national and global health estimates to monitoring health-related sustainable development goals

    PubMed Central

    Bundhamcharoen, Kanitta; Limwattananon, Supon; Kusreesakul, Khanitta; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj

    2016-01-01

    The millennium development goals triggered an increased demand for data on child and maternal mortalities for monitoring progress. With the advent of the sustainable development goals and growing evidence of an epidemiological transition toward non-communicable diseases, policymakers need data on mortality and disease trends and distribution to inform effective policies and support monitoring progress. Where there are limited capacities to produce national health estimates (NHEs), global health estimates (GHEs) can fill gaps for global monitoring and comparisons. This paper discusses lessons learned from Thailand’s burden of disease (BOD) study on capacity development on NHEs and discusses the contributions and limitations of GHEs in informing policies at the country level. Through training and technical support by external partners, capacities are gradually strengthened and institutionalized to enable regular updates of BOD at national and subnational levels. Initially, the quality of cause-of-death reporting in death certificates was inadequate, especially for deaths occurring in the community. Verbal autopsies were conducted, using domestic resources, to determine probable causes of deaths occurring in the community. This method helped to improve the estimation of years of life lost. Since the achievement of universal health coverage in 2002, the quality of clinical data on morbidities has also considerably improved. There are significant discrepancies between the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study estimates for Thailand and the 1999 nationally generated BOD, especially for years of life lost due to HIV/AIDS, and the ranking of priority diseases. National ownership of NHEs and an effective interface between researchers and decision-makers contribute to enhanced country policy responses, whereas subnational data are intended to be used by various subnational partners. Although GHEs contribute to benchmarking country achievement compared with global health

  11. Contributions of national and global health estimates to monitoring health-related sustainable development goals.

    PubMed

    Bundhamcharoen, Kanitta; Limwattananon, Supon; Kusreesakul, Khanitta; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj

    2016-01-01

    The millennium development goals triggered an increased demand for data on child and maternal mortalities for monitoring progress. With the advent of the sustainable development goals and growing evidence of an epidemiological transition toward non-communicable diseases, policymakers need data on mortality and disease trends and distribution to inform effective policies and support monitoring progress. Where there are limited capacities to produce national health estimates (NHEs), global health estimates (GHEs) can fill gaps for global monitoring and comparisons. This paper discusses lessons learned from Thailand's burden of disease (BOD) study on capacity development on NHEs and discusses the contributions and limitations of GHEs in informing policies at the country level. Through training and technical support by external partners, capacities are gradually strengthened and institutionalized to enable regular updates of BOD at national and subnational levels. Initially, the quality of cause-of-death reporting in death certificates was inadequate, especially for deaths occurring in the community. Verbal autopsies were conducted, using domestic resources, to determine probable causes of deaths occurring in the community. This method helped to improve the estimation of years of life lost. Since the achievement of universal health coverage in 2002, the quality of clinical data on morbidities has also considerably improved. There are significant discrepancies between the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study estimates for Thailand and the 1999 nationally generated BOD, especially for years of life lost due to HIV/AIDS, and the ranking of priority diseases. National ownership of NHEs and an effective interface between researchers and decision-makers contribute to enhanced country policy responses, whereas subnational data are intended to be used by various subnational partners. Although GHEs contribute to benchmarking country achievement compared with global health

  12. Estimating Global “Blue Carbon” Emissions from Conversion and Degradation of Vegetated Coastal Ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Murray, Brian C.; Crooks, Stephen; Jenkins, W. Aaron; Sifleet, Samantha; Craft, Christopher; Fourqurean, James W.; Kauffman, J. Boone; Marbà, Núria; Megonigal, Patrick; Pidgeon, Emily; Herr, Dorothee; Gordon, David; Baldera, Alexis

    2012-01-01

    Recent attention has focused on the high rates of annual carbon sequestration in vegetated coastal ecosystems—marshes, mangroves, and seagrasses—that may be lost with habitat destruction (‘conversion’). Relatively unappreciated, however, is that conversion of these coastal ecosystems also impacts very large pools of previously-sequestered carbon. Residing mostly in sediments, this ‘blue carbon’ can be released to the atmosphere when these ecosystems are converted or degraded. Here we provide the first global estimates of this impact and evaluate its economic implications. Combining the best available data on global area, land-use conversion rates, and near-surface carbon stocks in each of the three ecosystems, using an uncertainty-propagation approach, we estimate that 0.15–1.02 Pg (billion tons) of carbon dioxide are being released annually, several times higher than previous estimates that account only for lost sequestration. These emissions are equivalent to 3–19% of those from deforestation globally, and result in economic damages of $US 6–42 billion annually. The largest sources of uncertainty in these estimates stems from limited certitude in global area and rates of land-use conversion, but research is also needed on the fates of ecosystem carbon upon conversion. Currently, carbon emissions from the conversion of vegetated coastal ecosystems are not included in emissions accounting or carbon market protocols, but this analysis suggests they may be disproportionally important to both. Although the relevant science supporting these initial estimates will need to be refined in coming years, it is clear that policies encouraging the sustainable management of coastal ecosystems could significantly reduce carbon emissions from the land-use sector, in addition to sustaining the well-recognized ecosystem services of coastal habitats. PMID:22962585

  13. Estimating global "blue carbon" emissions from conversion and degradation of vegetated coastal ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Pendleton, Linwood; Donato, Daniel C; Murray, Brian C; Crooks, Stephen; Jenkins, W Aaron; Sifleet, Samantha; Craft, Christopher; Fourqurean, James W; Kauffman, J Boone; Marbà, Núria; Megonigal, Patrick; Pidgeon, Emily; Herr, Dorothee; Gordon, David; Baldera, Alexis

    2012-01-01

    Recent attention has focused on the high rates of annual carbon sequestration in vegetated coastal ecosystems--marshes, mangroves, and seagrasses--that may be lost with habitat destruction ('conversion'). Relatively unappreciated, however, is that conversion of these coastal ecosystems also impacts very large pools of previously-sequestered carbon. Residing mostly in sediments, this 'blue carbon' can be released to the atmosphere when these ecosystems are converted or degraded. Here we provide the first global estimates of this impact and evaluate its economic implications. Combining the best available data on global area, land-use conversion rates, and near-surface carbon stocks in each of the three ecosystems, using an uncertainty-propagation approach, we estimate that 0.15-1.02 Pg (billion tons) of carbon dioxide are being released annually, several times higher than previous estimates that account only for lost sequestration. These emissions are equivalent to 3-19% of those from deforestation globally, and result in economic damages of $US 6-42 billion annually. The largest sources of uncertainty in these estimates stems from limited certitude in global area and rates of land-use conversion, but research is also needed on the fates of ecosystem carbon upon conversion. Currently, carbon emissions from the conversion of vegetated coastal ecosystems are not included in emissions accounting or carbon market protocols, but this analysis suggests they may be disproportionally important to both. Although the relevant science supporting these initial estimates will need to be refined in coming years, it is clear that policies encouraging the sustainable management of coastal ecosystems could significantly reduce carbon emissions from the land-use sector, in addition to sustaining the well-recognized ecosystem services of coastal habitats.

  14. Estimating a Global Hydrological Carrying Capacity Using GRACE Observed Water Stress

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    An, K.; Reager, J. T.; Famiglietti, J. S.

    2013-12-01

    Global population is expected to reach 9 billion people by the year 2050, causing increased demands for water and potential threats to human security. This study attempts to frame the overpopulation problem through a hydrological resources lens by hypothesizing that observed groundwater trends should be directly attributed to human water consumption. This study analyzes the relationships between available blue water, population, and cropland area on a global scale. Using satellite data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) along with land surface model data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), a global groundwater depletion trend is isolated, the validity of which has been verified in many regional studies. By using the inherent distributions of these relationships, we estimate the regional populations that have exceeded their local hydrological carrying capacity. Globally, these populations sum to ~3.5 billion people that are living in presently water-stressed or potentially water-scarce regions, and we estimate total cropland is exceeding a sustainable threshold by about 80 million km^2. Key study areas such as the North China Plain, northwest India, and Mexico City were qualitatively chosen for further analysis of regional water resources and policies, based on our distributions of water stress. These case studies are used to verify the groundwater level changes seen in the GRACE trend . Tfor the many populous, arid regions of the world that have already begun to experience the strains of high water demand.he many populous, arid regions of the world have already begun to experience the strains of high water demand. It will take a global cooperative effort of improving domestic and agricultural use efficiency, and summoning a political will to prioritize environmental issues to adapt to a thirstier planet. Global Groundwater Depletion Trend (Mar 2003-Dec 2011)

  15. Using remote sensing to estimate global impounded water in small artificial reservoirs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blaisdell, B.; Sahagian, D.; Xiao, X.; Braswell, R.

    2003-12-01

    The impoundment of water has served to increase global water resources through time in support primarily of growing agricultural needs. If future capabilities or policies retard the increase in water impoundment, then there will be an impact on agricultural productivity that may not be accounted for in current projections. Thus, it would be desirable to determine the total amount and rate of water impounded to date in order to better estimate the effects on usable water resources and global sea level. Dams have been built for many years, but only the large, registered reservoirs are counted in international tallies of impounded water resources. To date there is not even a rough estimate of the amount stored in the literally millions of small reservoirs such as farm ponds and rice paddies that have resulted from small scale agricultural and other land use. The volumes of these cumulatively may exceed that of the few large reservoirs. Further, there has been no estimate at all of the amount of ground water impounded by any dams, large or small. While it is impractical to inventory millions of small agricultural impoundments, it is possible to use remote sensing data to estimate the quantity of this impounded water so that more accurate projections of water resource availability as well as 21st century sea level rise can be made. One approach to this problem is based on hydrologic land use regimes globally. Hydrologic land use characterization would involve determining the amount of water impounded for agriculture locally using Landsat data along with ground-based information, and extending to the global scale using MODIS data. Comparison with climate data will make it possible to estimate the area of irrigated land using mid-infrared and optical bands. Based on this information one can calculate the global areal extent of agricultural land irrigated from impounded water resources. A second approach involves unmixing MODIS data for sub-pixel analysis of small water

  16. A general model for estimation of daily global solar radiation using air temperatures and site geographic parameters in Southwest China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Mao-Fen; Fan, Li; Liu, Hong-Bin; Guo, Peng-Tao; Wu, Wei

    2013-01-01

    Estimation of daily global solar radiation (Rs) from routinely measured temperature data has been widely developed and used in many different areas of the world. However, many of them are site specific. It is assumed that a general model for estimating daily Rs using temperature variables and geographical parameters could be achieved within a climatic region. This paper made an attempt to develop a general model to estimate daily Rs using routinely measured temperature data (maximum (Tmax, °C) and minimum (Tmin, °C) temperatures) and site geographical parameters (latitude (La, °N), longitude (Ld, °E) and altitude (Alt, m)) for Guizhou and Sichuan basin of southwest China, which was classified into the hot summer and cold winter climate zone. Comparison analysis was carried out through statistics indicators such as root mean squared error of percentage (RMSE%), modeling efficiency (ME), coefficient of residual mass (CRM) and mean bias error (MBE). Site-dependent daily Rs estimating models were calibrated and validated using long-term observed weather data. A general formula was then obtained from site geographical parameters and the better fit site-dependent models with mean RMSE% of 38.68%, mean MBE of 0.381 MJ m-2 d-1, mean CRM of 0.04 and mean ME value of 0.713.

  17. Estimates of the Global Indirect Energy-Use Emission Impacts of USA Biofuel Policy

    SciTech Connect

    Oladosu, Gbadebo A

    2012-01-01

    This paper evaluates the indirect energy-use emission implications of increases in the use of biofuels in the USA between 2001 and 2010 as mandates within a dynamic global computable general equilibrium model. The study incorporates explicit markets for biofuels, petroleum and other fossil fuels, and accounts for interactions among all sectors of an 18-region global economy. It considers bilateral trade, as well as the dynamics of capital allocation and investment. Simulation results show that the biofuel mandates in the USA generate an overall reduction in global energy use and emissions over the simulation period from 2001 to 2030. Consequently, the indirect energy-use emission change or emission leakage under the mandate is negative. That is, global emission reductions are larger than the direct emission savings from replacing petroleum with biofuels under the USA RFS2 over the last decade. Under our principal scenario this enhanced the direct emission reduction from biofuels by about 66%. The global change in lifecycle energy-use emissions for this scenario was estimated to be about 93 million tons of CO2e in 2010, 45 million tons of CO2e in 2020, and an increase of 5 million tons of CO2e in 2030, relative to the baseline scenario. Sensitivity results of six alternative scenarios provided additional insights into the pattern of the regional and global effects of biofuel mandates on energy-use emissions.

  18. Has Natural Variability Masked the Expected Increase in Antarctic Surface Mass Balance with Global Warming?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Previdi, M. J.; Polvani, L. M.

    2015-12-01

    One of the expected and rather paradoxical consequences of anthropogenic global warming is an increase in Antarctic surface mass balance (or net snow accumulation), as robustly simulated by both global and regional climate models. This surface mass balance (SMB) increase occurs because the higher moisture content of a warmer atmosphere leads to increases in precipitation, with this precipitation falling in the form of snow over Antarctica. Despite these robust model projections, however, observations indicate that there has been no significant change in Antarctic SMB during the past several decades. Here, we show that this apparent discrepancy between models and observations can be explained by the fact that the anthropogenic climate change signal is still relatively small compared to the noise associated with natural climate variability. Using an ensemble of 35 global coupled climate models to separate signal and noise, we find that the forced SMB increase due to global warming in recent decades is unlikely to be detectable in a statistical sense as a result of large natural SMB variability on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales. However, our analysis reveals that if the world continues to follow the present trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions, the anthropogenic impact on Antarctic SMB will emerge from natural variability by the middle of the current century. With this, SMB increases over Antarctica will begin to mitigate global sea-level rise, partially offsetting the effects of dynamic ice loss.

  19. Has Natural Variability Masked the Expected Increase in Antarctic Surface Mass Balance with Global Warming?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Previdi, Michael; Polvani, Lorenzo M.

    2016-04-01

    One of the expected and rather paradoxical consequences of anthropogenic global warming is an increase in Antarctic surface mass balance (or net snow accumulation), as robustly simulated by both global and regional climate models. This surface mass balance (SMB) increase occurs because the higher moisture content of a warmer atmosphere leads to increases in precipitation, with this precipitation falling in the form of snow over Antarctica. Despite these robust model projections, however, observations indicate that there has been no significant change in Antarctic SMB during the past several decades. Here, we show that this apparent discrepancy between models and observations can be explained by the fact that the anthropogenic climate change signal is still relatively small compared to the noise associated with natural climate variability. Using an ensemble of 35 global coupled climate models to separate signal and noise, we find that the forced SMB increase due to global warming in recent decades is unlikely to be detectable in a statistical sense as a result of large natural SMB variability on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales. However, our analysis reveals that if the world continues to follow the present trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions, the anthropogenic impact on Antarctic SMB will emerge from natural variability by the middle of the current century. With this, SMB increases over Antarctica will begin to mitigate global sea-level rise, partially offsetting the effects of dynamic ice loss.

  20. Global burden of cancer attributable to high body-mass index in 2012: a population-based study

    PubMed Central

    Byrnes, Graham; Renehan, Prof Andrew G; Stevens, Gretchen A; Ezzati, Prof Majid; Ferlay, Jacques; Miranda, J. Jaime; Romieu, Isabelle; Dikshit, Rajesh; Forman, David; Soerjomataram, Isabelle

    2015-01-01

    Background Excess body mass index (BMI) is associated with increased risk of cancer. To inform public health policyand future research, we estimated the global burden of cancer attributable to excess BMI. Methods Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were derived using relative risks and BMI estimates in adults by age, sex and country. Assuming a10-year lag-period, PAFs were calculated using BMI estimates in 2002. GLOBOCAN2012 was used to compute numbers of new cancer cases attributable to excess BMI. In an alternative scenario, we computed the proportion of potentially avoidable cancers assuming that populations maintained their BMI-level observed in 1982. Secondary analyses were performed to test the model and estimate the impactof hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and smoking. Findings Worldwide, we estimated that 481,000 or 3·6% of all new cancer cases in 2012 were attributable to excess BMI. PAFs were greater in women compared with men (5·4% versus 1·9%). The burden was concentrated in countries with very high and high human development index (HDI, PAF: 5·3% and 4·8%) compared with countries with moderate and low HDI (PAF: 1·6% and 1·0%). Corpus uteri, post-menopausal breast and colon cancers accounted for approximately two-thirds (64%) of excess BMI attributable cancers. One fourth (~118,000) of all cases related to excess BMI in 2012 could be attributed to the rising BMI since 1982. Interpretation These findings further underpin the need for a global effort to abate the rising trends in population-level excess weight. Assuming that the relationship between excess BMI and cancer is causal and the current pattern of population weight gain continues, this will likely augment the future burden of cancer. Funding World Cancer Research Fund, Marie Currie Fellowship, the National Health and Medical Research Council Australia and US NIH. PMID:25467404

  1. Approaches to refining estimates of global burden and economics of dengue.

    PubMed

    Shepard, Donald S; Undurraga, Eduardo A; Betancourt-Cravioto, Miguel; Guzmán, María G; Halstead, Scott B; Harris, Eva; Mudin, Rose Nani; Murray, Kristy O; Tapia-Conyer, Roberto; Gubler, Duane J

    2014-11-01

    Dengue presents a formidable and growing global economic and disease burden, with around half the world's population estimated to be at risk of infection. There is wide variation and substantial uncertainty in current estimates of dengue disease burden and, consequently, on economic burden estimates. Dengue disease varies across time, geography and persons affected. Variations in the transmission of four different viruses and interactions among vector density and host's immune status, age, pre-existing medical conditions, all contribute to the disease's complexity. This systematic review aims to identify and examine estimates of dengue disease burden and costs, discuss major sources of uncertainty, and suggest next steps to improve estimates. Economic analysis of dengue is mainly concerned with costs of illness, particularly in estimating total episodes of symptomatic dengue. However, national dengue disease reporting systems show a great diversity in design and implementation, hindering accurate global estimates of dengue episodes and country comparisons. A combination of immediate, short-, and long-term strategies could substantially improve estimates of disease and, consequently, of economic burden of dengue. Suggestions for immediate implementation include refining analysis of currently available data to adjust reported episodes and expanding data collection in empirical studies, such as documenting the number of ambulatory visits before and after hospitalization and including breakdowns by age. Short-term recommendations include merging multiple data sources, such as cohort and surveillance data to evaluate the accuracy of reporting rates (by health sector, treatment, severity, etc.), and using covariates to extrapolate dengue incidence to locations with no or limited reporting. Long-term efforts aim at strengthening capacity to document dengue transmission using serological methods to systematically analyze and relate to epidemiologic data. As promising tools

  2. Approaches to Refining Estimates of Global Burden and Economics of Dengue

    PubMed Central

    Shepard, Donald S.; Undurraga, Eduardo A.; Betancourt-Cravioto, Miguel; Guzmán, María G.; Halstead, Scott B.; Harris, Eva; Mudin, Rose Nani; Murray, Kristy O.; Tapia-Conyer, Roberto; Gubler, Duane J.

    2014-01-01

    Dengue presents a formidable and growing global economic and disease burden, with around half the world's population estimated to be at risk of infection. There is wide variation and substantial uncertainty in current estimates of dengue disease burden and, consequently, on economic burden estimates. Dengue disease varies across time, geography and persons affected. Variations in the transmission of four different viruses and interactions among vector density and host's immune status, age, pre-existing medical conditions, all contribute to the disease's complexity. This systematic review aims to identify and examine estimates of dengue disease burden and costs, discuss major sources of uncertainty, and suggest next steps to improve estimates. Economic analysis of dengue is mainly concerned with costs of illness, particularly in estimating total episodes of symptomatic dengue. However, national dengue disease reporting systems show a great diversity in design and implementation, hindering accurate global estimates of dengue episodes and country comparisons. A combination of immediate, short-, and long-term strategies could substantially improve estimates of disease and, consequently, of economic burden of dengue. Suggestions for immediate implementation include refining analysis of currently available data to adjust reported episodes and expanding data collection in empirical studies, such as documenting the number of ambulatory visits before and after hospitalization and including breakdowns by age. Short-term recommendations include merging multiple data sources, such as cohort and surveillance data to evaluate the accuracy of reporting rates (by health sector, treatment, severity, etc.), and using covariates to extrapolate dengue incidence to locations with no or limited reporting. Long-term efforts aim at strengthening capacity to document dengue transmission using serological methods to systematically analyze and relate to epidemiologic data. As promising tools

  3. Overview and Assessment of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Mass Balance Estimates: 1992-2009

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zwally, H. Jay; Giovinetto, Mario B.

    2011-01-01

    Mass balance estimates for the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) in the 2007 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and in more recent reports lie between approximately ?50 to -250 Gt/year for 1992 to 2009. The 300 Gt/year range is approximately 15% of the annual mass input and 0.8 mm/year Sea Level Equivalent (SLE). Two estimates from radar altimeter measurements of elevation change by European Remote-sensing Satellites (ERS) (?28 and -31 Gt/year) lie in the upper part, whereas estimates from the Input-minus-Output Method (IOM) and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) lie in the lower part (-40 to -246 Gt/year). We compare the various estimates, discuss the methodology used, and critically assess the results. We also modify the IOM estimate using (1) an alternate extrapolation to estimate the discharge from the non-observed 15% of the periphery, and (2) substitution of input from a field data compilation for input from an atmospheric model in 6% of area. The modified IOM estimate reduces the loss from 136 Gt/year to 13 Gt/year. Two ERS-based estimates, the modified IOM, and a GRACE-based estimate for observations within 1992 2005 lie in a narrowed range of ?27 to -40 Gt/year, which is about 3% of the annual mass input and only 0.2 mm/year SLE. Our preferred estimate for 1992 2001 is -47 Gt/year for West Antarctica, ?16 Gt/year for East Antarctica, and -31 Gt/year overall (?0.1 mm/year SLE), not including part of the Antarctic Peninsula (1.07% of the AIS area). Although recent reports of large and increasing rates of mass loss with time from GRACE-based studies cite agreement with IOM results, our evaluation does not support that conclusion

  4. Analysis of the mass media coverage of the Gates Foundation grand challenges in global health initiative.

    PubMed

    Verma, G

    2009-03-01

    The Grand Challenges were launched in 2003 by the Gates Foundation and other collaborators to address the health needs of developing countries. This paper outlines the current problem with health research and development in the context of inequality as conveyed by the 90/10 divide. The paper then looks at the focus and nature of press reporting of global health issues by analysing how press articles have portrayed the Grand Challenges in Global Health initiative. Analysis of the mass media illustrates that the focus of reporting on the Grand Challenges tends to be on utilitarian themes, leaving issues related to justice and equity comparatively under-reported.

  5. Assembling GHERG: Could "academic crowd-sourcing" address gaps in global health estimates?

    PubMed

    Rudan, Igor; Campbell, Harry; Marušić, Ana; Sridhar, Devi; Nair, Harish; Adeloye, Davies; Theodoratou, Evropi; Chan, Kit Yee

    2015-06-01

    In recent months, the World Health Organization (WHO), independent academic researchers, the Lancet and PLoS Medicine journals worked together to improve reporting of population health estimates. The new guidelines for accurate and transparent health estimates reporting (likely to be named GATHER), which are eagerly awaited, represent a helpful move that should benefit the field of global health metrics. Building on this progress and drawing from a tradition of Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG)'s successful work model, we would like to propose a new initiative - "Global Health Epidemiology Reference Group" (GHERG). We see GHERG as an informal and entirely voluntary international collaboration of academic groups who are willing to contribute to improving disease burden estimates and respect the principles of the new guidelines - a form of "academic crowd-sourcing". The main focus of GHERG will be to identify the "gap areas" where not much information is available and/or where there is a lot of uncertainty present about the accuracy of the existing estimates. This approach should serve to complement the existing WHO and IHME estimates and to represent added value to both efforts.

  6. Estimation of submarine mass failure probability from a sequence of deposits with age dates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Geist, Eric L.; Chaytor, Jason D.; Parsons, Thomas E.; ten Brink, Uri S.

    2013-01-01

    The empirical probability of submarine mass failure is quantified from a sequence of dated mass-transport deposits. Several different techniques are described to estimate the parameters for a suite of candidate probability models. The techniques, previously developed for analyzing paleoseismic data, include maximum likelihood and Type II (Bayesian) maximum likelihood methods derived from renewal process theory and Monte Carlo methods. The estimated mean return time from these methods, unlike estimates from a simple arithmetic mean of the center age dates and standard likelihood methods, includes the effects of age-dating uncertainty and of open time intervals before the first and after the last event. The likelihood techniques are evaluated using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) to select the optimal model. The techniques are applied to mass transport deposits recorded in two Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) drill sites located in the Ursa Basin, northern Gulf of Mexico. Dates of the deposits were constrained by regional bio- and magnetostratigraphy from a previous study. Results of the analysis indicate that submarine mass failures in this location occur primarily according to a Poisson process in which failures are independent and return times follow an exponential distribution. However, some of the model results suggest that submarine mass failures may occur quasiperiodically at one of the sites (U1324). The suite of techniques described in this study provides quantitative probability estimates of submarine mass failure occurrence, for any number of deposits and age uncertainty distributions.

  7. Vector Observation-Aided/Attitude-Rate Estimation Using Global Positioning System Signals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oshman, Yaakov; Markley, F. Landis

    1997-01-01

    A sequential filtering algorithm is presented for attitude and attitude-rate estimation from Global Positioning System (GPS) differential carrier phase measurements. A third-order, minimal-parameter method for solving the attitude matrix kinematic equation is used to parameterize the filter's state, which renders the resulting estimator computationally efficient. Borrowing from tracking theory concepts, the angular acceleration is modeled as an exponentially autocorrelated stochastic process, thus avoiding the use of the uncertain spacecraft dynamic model. The new formulation facilitates the use of aiding vector observations in a unified filtering algorithm, which can enhance the method's robustness and accuracy. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the performance of the method.

  8. INCIDENCE OF MULTIDRUG-RESISTANT TUBERCULOSIS DISEASE IN CHILDREN: SYSTEMATIC REVIEW AND GLOBAL ESTIMATES

    PubMed Central

    Jenkins, Helen E.; Tolman, Arielle W.; Yuen, Courtney M.; Parr, Jonathan B.; Keshavjee, Salmaan; Pérez-Vélez, Carlos M.; Pagano, Marcello; Becerra, Mercedes C.; Cohen, Ted

    2014-01-01

    Background Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) threatens to reverse recent reductions in global tuberculosis (TB) incidence. Although children under 15 years of age constitute >25% of the worldwide population, the global incidence of MDR-TB disease in children has never been quantified. Methods Our approach for estimating regional and global annual incidence of MDR-TB in children required development of two models: one to estimate the setting-specific risk of MDR-TB among child TB cases, and a second to estimate the setting-specific incidence of TB disease in children. The model for MDR-TB risk among children with TB required a systematic literature review. We multiplied the setting-specific estimates of MDR-TB risk and TB incidence to estimate regional and global incidence of MDR-TB disease in children in 2010. Findings We identified 3,403 papers, of which 97 studies met inclusion criteria for the systematic review of MDR-TB risk. Thirty-one studies reported the risk of MDR-TB among both children and treatment-naïve adults with TB and were used for evaluating the linear association between MDR-TB risk in these two patient groups. We found that the setting-specific risk of MDR-TB was nearly identical in children and treatment-naïve adults with TB, consistent with the assertion that MDR-TB in both groups reflects the local risk of transmitted MDR-TB. Applying these calculated risks, we estimated that around 1,000,000 (95% Confidence Interval: 938,000 – 1,055,000) children developed TB disease in 2010, among whom 32,000 (95% Confidence Interval: 26,000 – 39,000) had MDR-TB. Interpretation Our estimates highlight a massive detection gap for children with TB and MDR-TB disease. Future estimates can be refined as more and better TB data and new diagnostic tools become available. PMID:24671080

  9. A numerical study on dust devils with implications to global dust budget estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klose, Martina; Shao, Yaping

    2016-09-01

    The estimates of the contribution of dust devils (DDs) to the global dust budget have large uncertainties because the dust emission mechanisms in DDs are not yet well understood. In this study, a large-eddy simulation model coupled with a dust scheme is used to investigate DD dust entrainment. DDs are identified from the simulations using various threshold values for pressure drop and vorticity in the DD center. A vortex-tracking algorithm is presented, which automatically detects and tracks vortices based on different pressure drop and vorticity criteria. The results show that DD dust lifting can be largely explained by convective turbulent dust emission. DD dust entrainment varies strongly between individual DDs even for similar atmospheric conditions, but the maximum emissions are determined by atmospheric stability. By relating DD emission and counts to the Richardson number, we propose a new and simple method to estimate regional and global DD dust transport.

  10. Accuracy of core mass estimates in simulated observations of dust emission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malinen, J.; Juvela, M.; Collins, D. C.; Lunttila, T.; Padoan, P.

    2011-06-01

    Aims: We study the reliability of the mass estimates obtained for molecular cloud cores using sub-millimetre and infrared dust emission. Methods: We use magnetohydrodynamic simulations and radiative transfer to produce synthetic observations with spatial resolution and noise levels typical of Herschel surveys. We estimate dust colour temperatures using different pairs of intensities, calculate column densities with opacity at one wavelength, and compare the estimated masses with the true values. We compare these results to the case when all five Herschel wavelengths are available. We investigate the effects of spatial variations of dust properties and the influence of embedded heating sources. Results: Wrong assumptions of dust opacity and its spectral index β can cause significant systematic errors in mass estimates. These are mainly multiplicative and leave the slope of the mass spectrum intact, unless cores with very high optical depth are included. Temperature variations bias the colour temperature estimates and, in quiescent cores with optical depths higher than for normal stable cores, masses can be underestimated by up to one order of magnitude. When heated by internal radiation sources, the dust in the core centre becomes visible and the observations recover the true mass spectra. Conclusions: The shape, although not the position, of the mass spectrum is reliable against observational errors and biases introduced in the analysis. This changes only if the cores have optical depths much higher than expected for basic hydrostatic equilibrium conditions. Observations underestimate the value of β whenever there are temperature variations along the line of sight. A bias can also be observed when the true β varies with wavelength. Internal heating sources produce an inverse correlation between colour temperature and β that may be difficult to separate from any intrinsic β(T) relation of the dust grains. This suggests caution when interpreting the observed

  11. Accuracy in measuring the neutron star mass in gravitational wave parameter estimates for nonspinning compact binaries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cho, Hee-Suk

    2015-09-01

    In gravitational wave (GW) data analysis, the parameter estimate is performed to find the physical parameters of GW sources. The result of the parameter estimate is given by a posterior probability density function, and the measurement errors can be computed by using the Fisher matrix method. Using this method, we investigate the accuracy in estimates of neutron star (NS) masses ( M NS) for GWs emitted from merging compact binaries. As GW sources, we consider nonspinning binaries in which the primary component is assumed to be a NS and the companion is assumed to be a NS or a stellar-mass black hole (BH). Adopting GW signals with a signal-to-noise ratio of 10 for Advanced LIGO (Laser Interferometer Gravitational wave Observatory) sensitivity, we calculate measurement errors (σ) of M NS. We find that the errors strongly depend on the mass ratio of the companion mass ( M com) to the NS mass ( M NS). For NS-NS binaries, the fractional errors (σ/ M NS) are larger than 10% only in the symmetric mass region. For BH-NS binaries, the fractional errors tend to decrease with increasing mass ratio ( M com/ M NS), and the measurement accuracies are better than those for NS-NS binaries. In this case, the errors are always smaller than ~ 3%.

  12. Exploiting the multiplexing capabilities of tandem mass tags for high-throughput estimation of cellular protein abundances by mass spectrometry.

    PubMed

    Ahrné, Erik; Martinez-Segura, Amalia; Syed, Afzal Pasha; Vina-Vilaseca, Arnau; Gruber, Andreas J; Marguerat, Samuel; Schmidt, Alexander

    2015-09-01

    The generation of dynamic models of biological processes critically depends on the determination of precise cellular concentrations of biomolecules. Measurements of system-wide absolute protein levels are particularly valuable information in systems biology. Recently, mass spectrometry based proteomics approaches have been developed to estimate protein concentrations on a proteome-wide scale. However, for very complex proteomes, fractionation steps are required, increasing samples number and instrument analysis time. As a result, the number of full proteomes that can be routinely analyzed is limited. Here we combined absolute quantification strategies with the multiplexing capabilities of isobaric tandem mass tags to determine cellular protein abundances in a high throughput and proteome-wide scale even for highly complex biological systems, such as a whole human cell line. We generated two independent data sets to demonstrate the power of the approach regarding sample throughput, dynamic range, quantitative precision and accuracy as well as proteome coverage in comparison to existing mass spectrometry based strategies.

  13. Can standard surface EMG processing parameters be used to estimate motor unit global firing rate?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Ping; Zev Rymer, William

    2004-06-01

    The relations between motor unit global firing rates and established quantitative measures for processing the surface electromyogram (EMG) signals were explored using a simulation approach. Surface EMG signals were simulated using the reported properties of the first dorsal interosseous muscle in man, and the models were varied systematically, using several hypothetical relations between motor unit electrical and force output, and also using different motor unit firing rate strategies. The utility of using different EMG processing parameters to help estimate global motor unit firing rate was evaluated based on their relations to the number of motor unit action potentials (MUAPs) in the simulated surface EMG signals. Our results indicate that the relation between motor unit electrical and mechanical properties, and the motor unit firing rate scheme are all important factors determining the form of the relation between surface EMG amplitude and motor unit global firing rate. Conversely, these factors have less impact on the relations between turn or zero-crossing point counts and the number of MUAPs in surface EMG. We observed that the number of turn or zero-crossing points tends to saturate with the increase in the MUAP number in surface EMG, limiting the utility of these measures as estimates of MUAP number. The simulation results also indicate that the mean or median frequency of the surface EMG power spectrum is a poor indicator of the global motor unit firing rate.

  14. The High-Mass End of the Black Hole Mass Function: Mass Estimates in Brightest Cluster Galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dalla Bontà, E.; Ferrarese, L.; Corsini, E. M.; Miralda-Escudé, J.; Coccato, L.; Sarzi, M.; Pizzella, A.; Beifiori, A.

    2009-01-01

    We present Hubble Space Telescope imaging and spectroscopic observations of three Brightest Cluster Galaxies, Abell 1836-BCG, Abell 2052-BCG, and Abell 3565-BCG, obtained with the Wide Field and Planetary Camera 2, the Advanced Camera for Surveys and the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph. The data provide detailed information on the structure and mass profile of the stellar component, the dust optical depth, and the spatial distribution and kinematics of the ionized gas within the innermost region of each galaxy. Dynamical models, which account for the observed stellar mass profile and include the contribution of a central supermassive black hole (SBH), are constructed to reproduce the kinematics derived from the Hα and [N II]λλ6548,6583 emission lines. Secure SBH detection with M • = 3.61+0.41 -0.50 × 109 M sun and M • = 1.34+0.21 -0.19 × 109 M sun, respectively, are obtained for Abell 1836-BCG and Abell 3565-BCG, which show regular rotation curves and strong central velocity gradients. In the case of Abell 2052-BCG, the lack of an orderly rotational motion prevents a secure determination, although an upper limit of M • lsim 4.60 × 109 M sun can be placed on the mass of the central SBH. These measurements represent an important step forward in the characterization of the high-mass end of the SBH mass function. Based on observations made with ESO telescopes at the La Silla Paranal Observatory under programme ID 279.B-5004(A).

  15. Mangrove production and carbon sinks: A revision of global budget estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bouillon, S.; Borges, A.V.; Castaneda-Moya, E.; Diele, K.; Dittmar, T.; Duke, N.C.; Kristensen, E.; Lee, S.-Y.; Marchand, C.; Middelburg, J.J.; Rivera-Monroy, V. H.; Smith, T. J.; Twilley, R.R.

    2008-01-01

    Mangrove forests are highly productive but globally threatened coastal ecosystems, whose role in the carbon budget of the coastal zone has long been debated. Here we provide a comprehensive synthesis of the available data on carbon fluxes in mangrove ecosystems. A reassessment of global mangrove primary production from the literature results in a conservative estimate of ???-218 ?? 72 Tg C a-1. When using the best available estimates of various carbon sinks (organic carbon export, sediment burial, and mineralization), it appears that >50% of the carbon fixed by mangrove vegetation is unaccounted for. This unaccounted carbon sink is conservatively estimated at ??? 112 ?? 85 Tg C a-1, equivalent in magnitude to ??? 30-40% of the global riverine organic carbon input to the coastal zone. Our analysis suggests that mineralization is severely underestimated, and that the majority of carbon export from mangroves to adjacent waters occurs as dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). CO2 efflux from sediments and creek waters and tidal export of DIC appear to be the major sinks. These processes are quantitatively comparable in magnitude to the unaccounted carbon sink in current budgets, but are not yet adequately constrained with the limited published data available so far. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

  16. Estimation of trapped mass by in-cylinder pressure resonance in HCCI engines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luján, José Manuel; Guardiola, Carlos; Pla, Benjamín; Bares, Pau

    2016-01-01

    High pressure gradients at homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) engines heavily excite the pressure resonance. The pressure resonant frequency depends on speed of sound in the cylinder, and thus on the bulk gas temperature. Present paper profits this relation estimating the trapped mass inside the cylinder. In contrast to other estimation methods in the literature, the presented method is based on the trace of the in-cylinder pressure during the cycle; therefore, it permits a cycle-to-cycle mass estimation, and avoids errors associated with other assumptions, such as heat transfer during compression or initial temperature of the in-cylinder gases. The proposed strategy only needs the pressure signal, a volume estimation and a composition assumption to obtain several trapped mass estimates during one cycle. These estimates can be later combined for providing an error estimate of the measurement, with the assumption of negligible blow-by. The method is demonstrated in two HCCI engines of different size, showing good performance in steady operation and presenting great potential to control transient operation.

  17. Understanding the Global Structure and Evolution of Coronal Mass Ejections in the Solar Wind

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Riley, Pete

    2004-01-01

    This report summarizes the technical progress made during the first six months of the second year of the NASA Living with a Star program contract Understanding the global structure and evolution of coronal mass ejections in the solar wind, between NASA and Science Applications International Corporation, and covers the period November 18, 2003 - May 17,2004. Under this contract SAIC has conducted numerical and data analysis related to fundamental issues concerning the origin, intrinsic properties, global structure, and evolution of coronal mass ejections in the solar wind. During this working period we have focused on a quantitative assessment of 5 flux rope fitting techniques. In the following sections we summarize the main aspects of this work and our proposed investigation plan for the next reporting period. Thus far, our investigation has resulted in 6 refereed scientific publications and we have presented the results at a number of scientific meetings and workshops.

  18. The method of tailored sensitivity kernels for GRACE mass change estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Groh, Andreas; Horwath, Martin

    2016-04-01

    To infer mass changes (such as mass changes of an ice sheet) from time series of GRACE spherical harmonic solutions, two basic approaches (with many variants) exist: The regional integration approach (or direct approach) is based on surface mass changes (equivalent water height, EWH) from GRACE and integrates those with specific integration kernels. The forward modeling approach (or mascon approach, or inverse approach) prescribes a finite set of mass change patterns and adjusts the amplitudes of those patterns (in a least squares sense) to the GRACE gravity field changes. The present study reviews the theoretical framework of both approaches. We recall that forward modeling approaches ultimately estimate mass changes by linear functionals of the gravity field changes. Therefore, they implicitly apply sensitivity kernels and may be considered as special realizations of the regional integration approach. We show examples for sensitivity kernels intrinsic to forward modeling approaches. We then propose to directly tailor sensitivity kernels (or in other words: mass change estimators) by a formal optimization procedure that minimizes the sum of propagated GRACE solution errors and leakage errors. This approach involves the incorporation of information on the structure of GRACE errors and the structure of those mass change signals that are most relevant for leakage errors. We discuss the realization of this method, as applied within the ESA "Antarctic Ice Sheet CCI (Climate Change Initiative)" project. Finally, results for the Antarctic Ice Sheet in terms of time series of mass changes of individual drainage basins and time series of gridded EWH changes are presented.

  19. Is CO radio line emission a reliable mass-loss-rate estimator for AGB stars?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramstedt, Sofia; Scḧier, Frederik; Olofsson, Hans

    The final evolutionary stage of low- to intermediate-mass stars, as they evolve along the asymptotic giant branch (AGB), is characterized by mass loss so intense (10-8-10-4 Msol yr-1) that eventually the AGB life time is determined by it. The material lost by the star is enriched in nucleo-synthesized material and thus AGB stars play an important role in the chemical evolution of galaxies. A reliable mass-loss-rate estimator is of utmost importance in order to increase our understanding of late stellar evolution and to reach conclusions about the amount of enriched material recycled by AGB stars. For low-mass-loss-rate AGB stars, modelling of observed rotational CO radio line emission has proven to be a good tool for estimating mass-loss rates [Olofsson et al. (2002) for M-type stars and Schöier & Olofsson (2001) for carbon stars], but several lines are needed to get good constraints. For high-mass-loss-rate objects the situation is more complicated, the main reason being saturation of the optically thick CO lines. Moreover, Kemper et al. (2003) introduced temporal changes in the mass-loss rate, or alternatively, spatially varying turbulent motions, in order to explain observed line-intensity ratios. This puts into question whether it is possible to model the circumstellar envelope using a constant mass-loss rate, or whether the physical structure of the outflow is more complex than normally assumed. We present observations of CO radio line emission for a sample of intermediate- to high-mass-loss-rate AGB stars. The lowest rotational transition line (J =1-0) was observed at OSO and the higher-frequency lines (J =2-1, 3-2, 4-3 and in some cases 6-5) were observed at the JCMT. Using a detailed, non-LTE, radiative transfer model we are able to reproduce observed line ratios (Figure 1) and constrain the mass-loss rates for the whole sample, using a constant mass-loss rate and a "standard" circumstellar envelope model. However, for some objects only a lower limit to

  20. A Simple Analytic Model for Estimating Mars Ascent Vehicle Mass and Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Woolley, Ryan C.

    2014-01-01

    The Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) is a crucial component in any sample return campaign. In this paper we present a universal model for a two-stage MAV along with the analytic equations and simple parametric relationships necessary to quickly estimate MAV mass and performance. Ascent trajectories can be modeled as two-burn transfers from the surface with appropriate loss estimations for finite burns, steering, and drag. Minimizing lift-off mass is achieved by balancing optimized staging and an optimized path-to-orbit. This model allows designers to quickly find optimized solutions and to see the effects of design choices.

  1. Measuring the mass of Kepler-78b using nonparametric Gaussian process estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grunblatt, Samuel K.; Howard, Andrew W.; Haywood, Raphaëlle D.

    2016-10-01

    Measuring the masses of rocky planets is quite difficult, as the relevant signal produced by such planets is often dwarfed by stellar activity by an order of magnitude or more. Developing a more robust way to isolate the stellar activity in these measurements is crucial to the search for Earth-like planets. We estimate the mass of Earth-size planet Kepler-78b using a Gaussian process estimator to describe the stellar activity in both photometric and radial velocity (RV) data, confirming previous results with a more robust technique that can be extended toward Earth analogues.

  2. Estimation of mass changes caused by vegetation using AMSR-E

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schnitzer, S.; Abelen, S.; Menzel, A.; Seitz, F.

    2012-04-01

    Vegetation is one of the most important compartments in the global ecosystem, influencing soil, water balance, atmosphere, and the climate in general. Even though this is a known fact, large areas of rain forest are still destroyed for wood production or by food industries increasing their agricultural areas for soy production and stock farming. But also wild fires devastate large amounts to vegetation. Therefore, it is essential to monitor the changes of vegetation globally. In our study we address the question how big the mass changes in vegetation are. We observe the following sources of changes: 1) wild fires, 2) clear cut and 3) seasonal variations of vegetation. For the first two items we consider only forest areas where the biggest mass variations are taking place. The third point takes the entire range of vegetation classes into account. In order to observe vegetation globally we use remote sensing data from the sensor AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - EOS) aboard of Nasa's Aqua satellite. This sensor provides data from 2002 until 2011. The data include information about the vegetation water content and are therefore ideal for our purpose. We validate our results with the help of additional databases listings, on e.g. large fire events, from literature as well as from in-situ data. The talk is concluded with a global map of hotspots of big vegetation mass changes and their triggers.

  3. ANALYSIS OF SOIL VAPOR EXTRACTION DATA TO EVALUATE MASS-TRANSFER CONSTRAINTS AND ESTIMATE SOURCE-ZONE MASS FLUX

    PubMed Central

    Rohay, Virginia; Truex, Michael J.

    2013-01-01

    Methods are developed to use data collected during cyclic operation of soil vapor extraction (SVE) systems to help characterize the magnitudes and timescales of mass flux associated with vadose zone contaminant sources. Operational data collected at the Department of Energy’s Hanford site are used to illustrate the use of such data. An analysis was conducted of carbon tetrachloride vapor concentrations collected during and between SVE operations. The objective of the analysis was to evaluate changes in concentrations measured during periods of operation and non-operation of SVE, with a focus on quantifying temporal dynamics of the vadose zone contaminant mass flux, and associated source strength. Three mass-flux terms, representing mass flux during the initial period of a SVE cycle, during the asymptotic period of a cycle, and during the rebound period, were calculated and compared. It was shown that it is possible to use the data to estimate time frames for effective operation of an SVE system if a sufficient set of historical cyclic operational data exists. This information could then be used to help evaluate changes in SVE operations, including system closure. The mass-flux data would also be useful for risk assessments of the impact of vadose-zone sources on groundwater contamination or vapor intrusion. PMID:23516336

  4. A Temperature-Based Model for Estimating Monthly Average Daily Global Solar Radiation in China

    PubMed Central

    Li, Huashan; Cao, Fei; Wang, Xianlong; Ma, Weibin

    2014-01-01

    Since air temperature records are readily available around the world, the models based on air temperature for estimating solar radiation have been widely accepted. In this paper, a new model based on Hargreaves and Samani (HS) method for estimating monthly average daily global solar radiation is proposed. With statistical error tests, the performance of the new model is validated by comparing with the HS model and its two modifications (Samani model and Chen model) against the measured data at 65 meteorological stations in China. Results show that the new model is more accurate and robust than the HS, Samani, and Chen models in all climatic regions, especially in the humid regions. Hence, the new model can be recommended for estimating solar radiation in areas where only air temperature data are available in China. PMID:24605046

  5. A temperature-based model for estimating monthly average daily global solar radiation in China.

    PubMed

    Li, Huashan; Cao, Fei; Wang, Xianlong; Ma, Weibin

    2014-01-01

    Since air temperature records are readily available around the world, the models based on air temperature for estimating solar radiation have been widely accepted. In this paper, a new model based on Hargreaves and Samani (HS) method for estimating monthly average daily global solar radiation is proposed. With statistical error tests, the performance of the new model is validated by comparing with the HS model and its two modifications (Samani model and Chen model) against the measured data at 65 meteorological stations in China. Results show that the new model is more accurate and robust than the HS, Samani, and Chen models in all climatic regions, especially in the humid regions. Hence, the new model can be recommended for estimating solar radiation in areas where only air temperature data are available in China.

  6. World Health Organization Global Estimates and Regional Comparisons of the Burden of Foodborne Disease in 2010.

    PubMed

    Havelaar, Arie H; Kirk, Martyn D; Torgerson, Paul R; Gibb, Herman J; Hald, Tine; Lake, Robin J; Praet, Nicolas; Bellinger, David C; de Silva, Nilanthi R; Gargouri, Neyla; Speybroeck, Niko; Cawthorne, Amy; Mathers, Colin; Stein, Claudia; Angulo, Frederick J; Devleesschauwer, Brecht

    2015-12-01

    Illness and death from diseases caused by contaminated food are a constant threat to public health and a significant impediment to socio-economic development worldwide. To measure the global and regional burden of foodborne disease (FBD), the World Health Organization (WHO) established the Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG), which here reports their first estimates of the incidence, mortality, and disease burden due to 31 foodborne hazards. We find that the global burden of FBD is comparable to those of the major infectious diseases, HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis. The most frequent causes of foodborne illness were diarrheal disease agents, particularly norovirus and Campylobacter spp. Diarrheal disease agents, especially non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica, were also responsible for the majority of deaths due to FBD. Other major causes of FBD deaths were Salmonella Typhi, Taenia solium and hepatitis A virus. The global burden of FBD caused by the 31 hazards in 2010 was 33 million Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs); children under five years old bore 40% of this burden. The 14 subregions, defined on the basis of child and adult mortality, had considerably different burdens of FBD, with the greatest falling on the subregions in Africa, followed by the subregions in South-East Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean D subregion. Some hazards, such as non-typhoidal S. enterica, were important causes of FBD in all regions of the world, whereas others, such as certain parasitic helminths, were highly localised. Thus, the burden of FBD is borne particularly by children under five years old-although they represent only 9% of the global population-and people living in low-income regions of the world. These estimates are conservative, i.e., underestimates rather than overestimates; further studies are needed to address the data gaps and limitations of the study. Nevertheless, all stakeholders can contribute to improvements in food safety

  7. World Health Organization Global Estimates and Regional Comparisons of the Burden of Foodborne Disease in 2010

    PubMed Central

    Havelaar, Arie H.; Kirk, Martyn D.; Torgerson, Paul R.; Gibb, Herman J.; Hald, Tine; Lake, Robin J.; Praet, Nicolas; Bellinger, David C.; de Silva, Nilanthi R.; Gargouri, Neyla; Speybroeck, Niko; Cawthorne, Amy; Mathers, Colin; Stein, Claudia; Angulo, Frederick J.; Devleesschauwer, Brecht

    2015-01-01

    Illness and death from diseases caused by contaminated food are a constant threat to public health and a significant impediment to socio-economic development worldwide. To measure the global and regional burden of foodborne disease (FBD), the World Health Organization (WHO) established the Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG), which here reports their first estimates of the incidence, mortality, and disease burden due to 31 foodborne hazards. We find that the global burden of FBD is comparable to those of the major infectious diseases, HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis. The most frequent causes of foodborne illness were diarrheal disease agents, particularly norovirus and Campylobacter spp. Diarrheal disease agents, especially non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica, were also responsible for the majority of deaths due to FBD. Other major causes of FBD deaths were Salmonella Typhi, Taenia solium and hepatitis A virus. The global burden of FBD caused by the 31 hazards in 2010 was 33 million Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs); children under five years old bore 40% of this burden. The 14 subregions, defined on the basis of child and adult mortality, had considerably different burdens of FBD, with the greatest falling on the subregions in Africa, followed by the subregions in South-East Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean D subregion. Some hazards, such as non-typhoidal S. enterica, were important causes of FBD in all regions of the world, whereas others, such as certain parasitic helminths, were highly localised. Thus, the burden of FBD is borne particularly by children under five years old–although they represent only 9% of the global population–and people living in low-income regions of the world. These estimates are conservative, i.e., underestimates rather than overestimates; further studies are needed to address the data gaps and limitations of the study. Nevertheless, all stakeholders can contribute to improvements in food safety

  8. Spatial estimation of sub-hour Global Horizontal Irradiance based on official observations and remote sensors.

    PubMed

    Gutierrez-Corea, Federico-Vladimir; Manso-Callejo, Miguel-Angel; Moreno-Regidor, María-Pilar; Velasco-Gómez, Jesús

    2014-04-11

    This study was motivated by the need to improve densification of Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) observations, increasing the number of surface weather stations that observe it, using sensors with a sub-hour periodicity and examining the methods of spatial GHI estimation (by interpolation) with that periodicity in other locations. The aim of the present research project is to analyze the goodness of 15-minute GHI spatial estimations for five methods in the territory of Spain (three geo-statistical interpolation methods, one deterministic method and the HelioSat2 method, which is based on satellite images). The research concludes that, when the work area has adequate station density, the best method for estimating GHI every 15 min is Regression Kriging interpolation using GHI estimated from satellite images as one of the input variables. On the contrary, when station density is low, the best method is estimating GHI directly from satellite images. A comparison between the GHI observed by volunteer stations and the estimation model applied concludes that 67% of the volunteer stations analyzed present values within the margin of error (average of ±2 standard deviations).

  9. Spatial Estimation of Sub-Hour Global Horizontal Irradiance Based on Official Observations and Remote Sensors

    PubMed Central

    Gutierrez-Corea, Federico-Vladimir; Manso-Callejo, Miguel-Angel; Moreno-Regidor, María-Pilar; Velasco-Gómez, Jesús

    2014-01-01

    This study was motivated by the need to improve densification of Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) observations, increasing the number of surface weather stations that observe it, using sensors with a sub-hour periodicity and examining the methods of spatial GHI estimation (by interpolation) with that periodicity in other locations. The aim of the present research project is to analyze the goodness of 15-minute GHI spatial estimations for five methods in the territory of Spain (three geo-statistical interpolation methods, one deterministic method and the HelioSat2 method, which is based on satellite images). The research concludes that, when the work area has adequate station density, the best method for estimating GHI every 15 min is Regression Kriging interpolation using GHI estimated from satellite images as one of the input variables. On the contrary, when station density is low, the best method is estimating GHI directly from satellite images. A comparison between the GHI observed by volunteer stations and the estimation model applied concludes that 67% of the volunteer stations analyzed present values within the margin of error (average of ±2 standard deviations). PMID:24732102

  10. Estimating the Capacity of Gross Primary Production from Global Observation Satellite

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muramatsu, Kanako; Soyama, Noriko; Thanyaparaneedkul, Juthasinee; Furumi, Shinobu; Daigo, Motomasa

    2012-07-01

    Estimation of Gross Primary Production with high accuracy is important for understanding the carbon cycle. For estimating gross primary production, photosynthesis process was considers into two parts. One is the capacity and another is the reduction which is influenced by environmental conditions such as weather conditions of vapor pressure difference and soil moisture. The capacity estimation part is reported in this conference. For a leaf, it is well known photosynthesis capacity is mainly depend on amount of chlorophyll and enzyme. Chlorophyll contents reflect the color of a leaf. Since we focus on the chlorophyll contents for estimating the capacity of the gross primary production. It was reported by J. Thanyapraneedkul (2012) that vegetation index of the ratio of green band and near infrared was linear relationship with chlorophyll contents of a leaf, and was a linear relationship with the maximum photosynthesis at light saturation of light response curve with less stress conditions using flux data. The index is suitable for global observing satellite, because the spectral bands are available. Using the index and empirical relationship developed by J. Thanyapraneedkul, the light response curve with less stress can be estimated from the vegetation index. In this study, firstly, the global distribution of the index was studied. The regions of high index value in winter time were correspond to tropical rainforest. Next, the capacity of gross primary production was estimated using the light response curve using the index. The GPP capacity of the almost all regions was higher than MODIS GPP. For the tropical rain forest regions, the GPP capacity value was similar with MODIS GPP product.

  11. Estimating riverine discharge of nitrogen from the South Korea by the mass balance approach.

    PubMed

    Kim, Taehoon; Kim, Geonha; Kim, Sungwon; Choi, Euiso

    2008-01-01

    The main objective of this research was to estimate the total mass of nitrogen discharged from various sources in Korea using the mass balance approach. Three different nitrogen mass balances were presented: (1) agricultural activities including raising crops and animal husbandry; (2) domestic activities, and (3) activities in forest and urban areas. These nitrogen balances were combined to estimate riverine discharge of nitrogen to the ocean in national scale. Nitrogen inputs include atmospheric deposition, biological nitrogen fixation, application of inorganic fertilizers/manures, animal feed/imported foodstuffs, and meat/fish. Nitrogen outputs include ammonia volatilization, denitrification, human/animal waste generation, crop/meat production, and riverine discharge to the ocean. The estimated total nitrogen input in Korea was 1,194.5 x 10(3) tons N/year. Nitrogen discharged into rivers was estimated as 408-422 x 10(3) tons N/year, of which 66-71% was diffuse in origin. The estimated diffuse discharges for land uses were estimated as 82 x 10(3) tons N/year from agricultural areas, 7 x 10(3) tons N/year from forestry and 75 x 10(3) tons N/year from urban and industrial areas.

  12. Impact of climatic noise on global estimates of terrestrial water balance components

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nasonova, Olga; Gusev, Yeugeniy; Semenov, Vladimir; Kovalev, Evgeny

    2016-04-01

    Estimates of water balance components performed by different authors in climate impact studies are characterized by a large scatter or uncertainty associated, in particular, with application of different meteorological forcing data (simulated by climate models), different estimates of model parameters, and different hydrological models. In the present work, the objective uncertainty, which cannot be reduced by means of better physical description of the processes under study or by means of improvement of the quality of input data for model simulations, and which is an internal feature of the atmosphere - hydrosphere - land surface system, is considered. This uncertainty is caused by a chaotic character of atmospheric processes (i.e. by so-called climatic noise), their instability with respect to small errors in determination of initial conditions for modeling the evolution of meteorological variables. Our study is devoted to investigating the impact of climatic noise on the estimates of terrestrial water balance components (precipitation, runoff and evapotranspiration) on a global scale. To achieve the effect of climatic noise 45 simulations were performed by the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5 under identical lower boundary conditions (including sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations) and constant external forcing parameters. The only differences between the simulations were initial conditions of the atmosphere. Meteorological fields simulated by ECHAM5 for the period of 1979-2012 were used as forcing data (with 6-hour temporal resolution and one-degree spatial one) by the land surface model Soil Water - Atmosphere - Plants (SWAP) for hydrological simulations on a global scale. As a result, 45-member ensemble of the water balance components for the land surface of the Earth excluding Antarctica was obtained. Analysis of the obtained results allowed us to estimate the lowest level of uncertainty which can be achieved in climate impact

  13. Spurious barometric pressure acceleration in Antarctica and propagation into GRACE Antarctic mass change estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Byeong-Hoon; Eom, Jooyoung; Seo, Ki-Weon; Wilson, Clark R.

    2016-08-01

    Apparent acceleration in Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Antarctic ice mass time-series may reflect both ice discharge and surface mass balance contributions. However, a recent study suggests there is also contamination from errors in atmospheric pressure de-aliasing fields [European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) operational products] used during GRACE data processing. To further examine this question, we compare GRACE atmospheric pressure de-aliasing (GAA) fields with in situ surface pressure data from coastal and inland stations. Differences between the two are likely due to GAA errors, and provide a measure of error in GRACE solutions. Time-series of differences at individual weather stations are fit to four presumed error components: annual sinusoids, a linear trend, an acceleration term and jumps at times of known ECMWF model changes. Using data from inland stations, we estimate that atmospheric pressure error causes an acceleration error of about +7.0 Gt yr-2, which is large relative to prior GRACE estimates of Antarctic ice mass acceleration in the range of -12 to -14 Gt yr-2. We also estimate apparent acceleration rates from other barometric pressure (reanalysis) fields, including ERA-Interim, MERRA and NCEP/DOE. When integrated over East Antarctica, the four mass acceleration estimates (from GAA and the three reanalysis fields) vary considerably (by ˜2-16 Gt yr-2). This shows the need for further effort to improve atmospheric mass estimates in this region of sparse in situ observations, in order to use GRACE observations to measure ice mass acceleration and related sea level change.

  14. The Lick AGN Monitoring Project: Recalibrating Single-epoch Virial Black Hole Mass Estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Daeseong; Woo, Jong-Hak; Treu, Tommaso; Barth, Aaron J.; Bentz, Misty C.; Bennert, Vardha N.; Canalizo, Gabriela; Filippenko, Alexei V.; Gates, Elinor; Greene, Jenny E.; Malkan, Matthew A.; Walsh, Jonelle

    2012-03-01

    We investigate the calibration and uncertainties of black hole (BH) mass estimates based on the single-epoch (SE) method, using homogeneous and high-quality multi-epoch spectra obtained by the Lick Active Galactic Nucleus (AGN) Monitoring Project for nine local Seyfert 1 galaxies with BH masses <108 M ⊙. By decomposing the spectra into their AGNs and stellar components, we study the variability of the SE Hβ line width (full width at half-maximum intensity, FWHMHβ or dispersion, σHβ) and of the AGN continuum luminosity at 5100 Å (L 5100). From the distribution of the "virial products" (vprop FWHMHβ 2 L 0.5 5100 or σHβ 2 L 0.5 5100) measured from SE spectra, we estimate the uncertainty due to the combined variability as ~0.05 dex (12%). This is subdominant with respect to the total uncertainty in SE mass estimates, which is dominated by uncertainties in the size-luminosity relation and virial coefficient, and is estimated to be ~0.46 dex (factor of ~3). By comparing the Hβ line profile of the SE, mean, and root-mean-square (rms) spectra, we find that the Hβ line is broader in the mean (and SE) spectra than in the rms spectra by ~0.1 dex (25%) for our sample with FWHMHβ <3000 km s-1. This result is at variance with larger mass BHs where the difference is typically found to be much less than 0.1 dex. To correct for this systematic difference of the Hβ line profile, we introduce a line-width dependent virial factor, resulting in a recalibration of SE BH mass estimators for low-mass AGNs.

  15. Dynamical mass estimates of young massive clusters in NGC1140 and M83

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moll, Sarah L.; de Grijs, Richard; Mengel, Sabine; Smith, Linda J.; Crowther, Paul A.

    2009-12-01

    We present virial mass estimates of young massive clusters (YMCs) in the starburst galaxies NGC1140 and M83, determined from high spectral resolution VLT echelle spectroscopy and high spatial resolution Hubble Space Telescope imaging. The survivability of such clusters is important in testing the scenario that YMCs are potentially proto-globular clusters. As young clusters, they lie in the domain in which dynamical masses appear to overestimate true cluster masses, most likely due to the clusters not being virialised. We find that the dynamical mass of NGC1140-1 is approximately ten times greater than its photometric mass. We propose that the most likely explanation for this disparity is the crowded environment of NGC1140-1, rather than this being solely due to a lack of virial equilibrium.

  16. Journal: A Review of Some Tracer-Test Design Equations for Tracer-Mass Estimation and Sample Collection Frequency

    EPA Science Inventory

    Determination of necessary tracer mass, initial sample-collection time, and subsequent sample-collection frequency are the three most difficult aspects to estimate for a proposed tracer test prior to conducting the tracer test. To facilitate tracer-mass estimation, 33 mass-estima...

  17. Graptolite community responses to global climate change and the Late Ordovician mass extinction.

    PubMed

    Sheets, H David; Mitchell, Charles E; Melchin, Michael J; Loxton, Jason; Štorch, Petr; Carlucci, Kristi L; Hawkins, Andrew D

    2016-07-26

    Mass extinctions disrupt ecological communities. Although climate changes produce stress in ecological communities, few paleobiological studies have systematically addressed the impact of global climate changes on the fine details of community structure with a view to understanding how changes in community structure presage, or even cause, biodiversity decline during mass extinctions. Based on a novel Bayesian approach to biotope assessment, we present a study of changes in species abundance distribution patterns of macroplanktonic graptolite faunas (∼447-444 Ma) leading into the Late Ordovician mass extinction. Communities at two contrasting sites exhibit significant decreases in complexity and evenness as a consequence of the preferential decline in abundance of dysaerobic zone specialist species. The observed changes in community complexity and evenness commenced well before the dramatic population depletions that mark the tipping point of the extinction event. Initially, community changes tracked changes in the oceanic water masses, but these relations broke down during the onset of mass extinction. Environmental isotope and biomarker data suggest that sea surface temperature and nutrient cycling in the paleotropical oceans changed sharply during the latest Katian time, with consequent changes in the extent of the oxygen minimum zone and phytoplankton community composition. Although many impacted species persisted in ephemeral populations, increased extinction risk selectively depleted the diversity of paleotropical graptolite species during the latest Katian and early Hirnantian. The effects of long-term climate change on habitats can thus degrade populations in ways that cascade through communities, with effects that culminate in mass extinction.

  18. Graptolite community responses to global climate change and the Late Ordovician mass extinction

    PubMed Central

    Sheets, H. David; Mitchell, Charles E.; Melchin, Michael J.; Loxton, Jason; Štorch, Petr; Carlucci, Kristi L.; Hawkins, Andrew D.

    2016-01-01

    Mass extinctions disrupt ecological communities. Although climate changes produce stress in ecological communities, few paleobiological studies have systematically addressed the impact of global climate changes on the fine details of community structure with a view to understanding how changes in community structure presage, or even cause, biodiversity decline during mass extinctions. Based on a novel Bayesian approach to biotope assessment, we present a study of changes in species abundance distribution patterns of macroplanktonic graptolite faunas (∼447–444 Ma) leading into the Late Ordovician mass extinction. Communities at two contrasting sites exhibit significant decreases in complexity and evenness as a consequence of the preferential decline in abundance of dysaerobic zone specialist species. The observed changes in community complexity and evenness commenced well before the dramatic population depletions that mark the tipping point of the extinction event. Initially, community changes tracked changes in the oceanic water masses, but these relations broke down during the onset of mass extinction. Environmental isotope and biomarker data suggest that sea surface temperature and nutrient cycling in the paleotropical oceans changed sharply during the latest Katian time, with consequent changes in the extent of the oxygen minimum zone and phytoplankton community composition. Although many impacted species persisted in ephemeral populations, increased extinction risk selectively depleted the diversity of paleotropical graptolite species during the latest Katian and early Hirnantian. The effects of long-term climate change on habitats can thus degrade populations in ways that cascade through communities, with effects that culminate in mass extinction. PMID:27432981

  19. Graptolite community responses to global climate change and the Late Ordovician mass extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheets, H. David; Mitchell, Charles E.; Melchin, Michael J.; Loxton, Jason; Štorch, Petr; Carlucci, Kristi L.; Hawkins, Andrew D.

    2016-07-01

    Mass extinctions disrupt ecological communities. Although climate changes produce stress in ecological communities, few paleobiological studies have systematically addressed the impact of global climate changes on the fine details of community structure with a view to understanding how changes in community structure presage, or even cause, biodiversity decline during mass extinctions. Based on a novel Bayesian approach to biotope assessment, we present a study of changes in species abundance distribution patterns of macroplanktonic graptolite faunas (˜447-444 Ma) leading into the Late Ordovician mass extinction. Communities at two contrasting sites exhibit significant decreases in complexity and evenness as a consequence of the preferential decline in abundance of dysaerobic zone specialist species. The observed changes in community complexity and evenness commenced well before the dramatic population depletions that mark the tipping point of the extinction event. Initially, community changes tracked changes in the oceanic water masses, but these relations broke down during the onset of mass extinction. Environmental isotope and biomarker data suggest that sea surface temperature and nutrient cycling in the paleotropical oceans changed sharply during the latest Katian time, with consequent changes in the extent of the oxygen minimum zone and phytoplankton community composition. Although many impacted species persisted in ephemeral populations, increased extinction risk selectively depleted the diversity of paleotropical graptolite species during the latest Katian and early Hirnantian. The effects of long-term climate change on habitats can thus degrade populations in ways that cascade through communities, with effects that culminate in mass extinction.

  20. Does Ocean Color Data Assimilation Improve Estimates of Global Ocean Inorganic Carbon?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gregg, Watson

    2012-01-01

    Ocean color data assimilation has been shown to dramatically improve chlorophyll abundances and distributions globally and regionally in the oceans. Chlorophyll is a proxy for phytoplankton biomass (which is explicitly defined in a model), and is related to the inorganic carbon cycle through the interactions of the organic carbon (particulate and dissolved) and through primary production where inorganic carbon is directly taken out of the system. Does ocean color data assimilation, whose effects on estimates of chlorophyll are demonstrable, trickle through the simulated ocean carbon system to produce improved estimates of inorganic carbon? Our emphasis here is dissolved inorganic carbon, pC02, and the air-sea flux. We use a sequential data assimilation method that assimilates chlorophyll directly and indirectly changes nutrient concentrations in a multi-variate approach. The results are decidedly mixed. Dissolved organic carbon estimates from the assimilation model are not meaningfully different from free-run, or unassimilated results, and comparisons with in situ data are similar. pC02 estimates are generally worse after data assimilation, with global estimates diverging 6.4% from in situ data, while free-run estimates are only 4.7% higher. Basin correlations are, however, slightly improved: r increase from 0.78 to 0.79, and slope closer to unity at 0.94 compared to 0.86. In contrast, air-sea flux of C02 is noticeably improved after data assimilation. Global differences decline from -0.635 mol/m2/y (stronger model sink from the atmosphere) to -0.202 mol/m2/y. Basin correlations are slightly improved from r=O.77 to r=0.78, with slope closer to unity (from 0.93 to 0.99). The Equatorial Atlantic appears as a slight sink in the free-run, but is correctly represented as a moderate source in the assimilation model. However, the assimilation model shows the Antarctic to be a source, rather than a modest sink and the North Indian basin is represented incorrectly as a sink

  1. Global Warming Estimation from MSU: Correction for Drift and Calibration Errors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer observations in Ch 2 (53.74 GHz), made in the nadir direction from sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA morning satellites (NOAA 6, 10 and 12 that have about 7am/7pm orbital geometry) and afternoon satellites (NOAA 7, 9, 11 and 14 that have about 2am/2pm orbital geometry) are analyzed in this study to derive global temperature trend from 1980 to 1998. In order to remove the discontinuities between the data of the successive satellites and to get a continuous time series, first we have used shortest possible time record of each satellite. In this way we get a preliminary estimate of the global temperature trend of 0.21 K/decade. However, this estimate is affected by systematic time-dependent errors. One such error is the instrument calibration error. This error can be inferred whenever there are overlapping measurements made by two satellites over an extended period of time. From the available successive satellite data we have taken the longest possible time record of each satellite to form the time series during the period 1980 to 1998 to this error. We find we can decrease the global temperature trend by about 0.07 K/decade. In addition there are systematic time dependent errors present in the data that are introduced by the drift in the satellite orbital geometry arises from the diurnal cycle in temperature which is the drift related change in the calibration of the MSU. In order to analyze the nature of these drift related errors the multi-satellite Ch 2 data set is partitioned into am and pm subsets to create two independent time series. The error can be assessed in the am and pm data of Ch 2 on land and can be eliminated. Observations made in the MSU Ch 1 (50.3 GHz) support this approach. The error is obvious only in the difference between the pm and am observations of Ch 2 over the ocean. We have followed two different paths to assess the impact of the errors on the global temperature trend. In one path the

  2. Global Warming Estimation from MSU: Correction for Drift and Calibration Errors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.

    2000-01-01

    Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer observations in Ch 2 (53.74 GHz), made in the nadir direction from sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA morning satellites (NOAA 6, 10 and 12 that have approximately 7am/7pm orbital geometry) and. afternoon satellites (NOAA 7, 9, 11 and 14 that have approximately 2am/2pm orbital geometry) are analyzed in this study to derive global temperature trend from 1980 to 1998. In order to remove the discontinuities between the data of the successive satellites and to get a continuous time series, first we have used shortest possible time record of each satellite. In this way we get a preliminary estimate of the global temperature trend of 0.21 K/decade. However, this estimate is affected by systematic time-dependent errors. One such error is the instrument calibration error eo. This error can be inferred whenever there are overlapping measurements made by two satellites over an extended period of time. From the available successive satellite data we have taken the longest possible time record of each satellite to form the time series during the period 1980 to 1998 to this error eo. We find eo can decrease the global temperature trend by approximately 0.07 K/decade. In addition there are systematic time dependent errors ed and ec present in the data that are introduced by the drift in the satellite orbital geometry. ed arises from the diurnal cycle in temperature and ec is the drift related change in the calibration of the MSU. In order to analyze the nature of these drift related errors the multi-satellite Ch 2 data set is partitioned into am and pm subsets to create two independent time series. The error ed can be assessed in the am and pm data of Ch 2 on land and can be eliminated. Observation made in the MSU Ch 1 (50.3 GHz) support this approach. The error ec is obvious only in the difference between the pm and am observations of Ch 2 over the ocean. We have followed two different paths to assess the impact of the

  3. Errors in the estimation of hydration status from changes in body mass.

    PubMed

    Maughan, Ronald J; Shirreffs, Susan M; Leiper, John B

    2007-05-01

    Hydration status is not easily measured, but acute changes in hydration status are often estimated from body mass change. Changes in body mass are also often used as a proxy measure for sweat losses. There are, however, several sources of error that may give rise to misleading results, and our aim in this paper is to quantify these potential errors. Respiratory water losses can be substantial during hard work in dry environments. Mass loss also results from substrate oxidation, but this generates water of oxidation which is added to the body water pool, thus dissociating changes in body mass and hydration status: fat oxidation actually results in a net gain in body mass as the mass of carbon dioxide generated is less than the mass of oxygen consumed. Water stored with muscle glycogen is presumed to be made available as endogenous carbohydrate stores are oxidized. Fluid ingestion and sweat loss complicate the picture by altering body water distribution. Loss of hypotonic sweat results in increased osmolality of body fluids. Urine and faecal losses can be measured easily, but changes in the water content of the bladder and the gastrointestinal tract cannot. Body mass change is not always a reliable measure of changes in hydration status and substantial loss of mass may occur without an effective net negative fluid balance.

  4. Simple new methods to estimate global solar radiation based on meteorological data in Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Metwally, Mossad

    2004-01-01

    Three simple methods to estimate global solar radiation are proposed in addition to (Solar Energy 63 (1998) 147). All were tested seasonally and at different sky conditions at seven locations in Egypt. The methods use ground-based measurements of maximum and minimum temperature, daily mean of cloud cover and extraterrestrial global radiation. Average of root mean square differences (RMSD) for a comparison between observed and estimated global radiation for all locations tested was around 10% for the new methods and 13% for Supit-Van Kappel method. The coefficient of determination R2 is higher for the new methods for all tested locations. Better results were obtained when applying the new methods to different seasons. The differences in root mean square error (RMSE) between the new methods and Ångstrom-Prescott method that is based on sunshine duration data were less than 1.0 MJ m -2 day -1 at all sites. On the whole, the performance statistics demonstrate that the new methods are better when compared by Ångstrom-Prescott method.

  5. Trends and variability in the global dataset of glacier mass balance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medwedeff, William G.; Roe, Gerard H.

    2016-06-01

    Glacier mass balance (i.e., accumulation and ablation) is the most direct connection between climate and glaciers. We perform a comprehensive evaluation of the available global network of mass-balance measurements. Each mass-balance time series is decomposed into a trend and the variability about that trend. Observed variability ranges by an order of magnitude, depending on climate setting (i.e., maritime vs continental). For the great majority of glaciers, variability is well characterized by normally distributed, random fluctuations that are uncorrelated between seasons, or in subsequent years. The magnitude of variability for both summer and winter is well correlated with mean wintertime balance, which reflects the climatic setting. Collectively, summertime variability exceeds wintertime variability, except for maritime glaciers. Trends in annual mass balance are generally negative, driven primarily by summertime changes. Approximately 25 % of annual-mean records show statistically significant negative trends when judged in isolation. In aggregate, the global trend is negative and significant. We further evaluate the magnitude of trends relative to the variability. We find that, on average, trends are approximately -0.2 standard deviations per decade, although there is a broad spread among individual glaciers. Finally, for two long records we also compare mass-balance trends and variability with nearby meteorological stations. We find significant differences among stations meaning caution is warranted in interpreting any point measurement (such as mass balance) as representative of region-wide behavior. By placing observed trends in the context of natural variability, the results are useful for interpreting past glacial history, and for placing constraints on future predictability.

  6. The impact of baryons on massive galaxy clusters: halo structure and cluster mass estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henson, Monique A.; Barnes, David J.; Kay, Scott T.; McCarthy, Ian G.; Schaye, Joop

    2017-03-01

    We use the BAHAMAS (BAryons and HAloes of MAssive Systems) and MACSIS (MAssive ClusterS and Intercluster Structures) hydrodynamic simulations to quantify the impact of baryons on the mass distribution and dynamics of massive galaxy clusters, as well as the bias in X-ray and weak lensing mass estimates. These simulations use the subgrid physics models calibrated in the BAHAMAS project, which include feedback from both supernovae and active galactic nuclei. They form a cluster population covering almost two orders of magnitude in mass, with more than 3500 clusters with masses greater than 1014 M⊙ at z = 0. We start by characterizing the clusters in terms of their spin, shape and density profile, before considering the bias in both weak lensing and hydrostatic mass estimates. Whilst including baryonic effects leads to more spherical, centrally concentrated clusters, the median weak lensing mass bias is unaffected by the presence of baryons. In both the dark matter only and hydrodynamic simulations, the weak lensing measurements underestimate cluster masses by ≈10 per cent for clusters with M200 ≤ 1015 M⊙ and this bias tends to zero at higher masses. We also consider the hydrostatic bias when using both the true density and temperature profiles, and those derived from X-ray spectroscopy. When using spectroscopic temperatures and densities, the hydrostatic bias decreases as a function of mass, leading to a bias of ≈40 per cent for clusters with M500 ≥ 1015 M⊙. This is due to the presence of cooler gas in the cluster outskirts. Using mass weighted temperatures and the true density profile reduces this bias to 5-15 per cent.

  7. Permafrost degradation and associated ground settlement estimation under 2 °C global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Donglin; Wang, Huijun

    2016-12-01

    Global warming of 2 °C above preindustrial levels has been considered to be the threshold that should not be exceeded by the global mean temperature to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system. However, this global mean target has different implications for different regions owing to the globally nonuniform climate change characteristics. Permafrost is sensitive to climate change; moreover, it is widely distributed in high-latitude and high-altitude regions where the greatest warming is predicted. Permafrost is expected to be severely affected by even the 2 °C global warming, which, in turn, affects other systems such as water resources, ecosystems, and infrastructures. Using air and soil temperature data from ten coupled model intercomparison project phase five models combined with observations of frozen ground, we investigated the permafrost thaw and associated ground settlement under 2 °C global warming. Results show that the climate models produced an ensemble mean permafrost area of 14.01 × 106 km2, which compares reasonably with the area of 13.89 × 106 km2 (north of 45°N) in the observations. The models predict that the soil temperature at 6 m depth will increase by 2.34-2.67 °C on area average relative to 1990-2000, and the increase intensifies with increasing latitude. The active layer thickness will also increase by 0.42-0.45 m, but dissimilar to soil temperature, the increase weakens with increasing latitude due to the distinctly cooler permafrost at higher latitudes. The permafrost extent will obviously retreat north and decrease by 24-26% and the ground settlement owing to permafrost thaw is estimated at 3.8-15 cm on area average. Possible uncertainties in this study may be mostly attributed to the less accurate ground ice content data and coarse horizontal resolution of the models.

  8. Global estimate of the incidence of clinical pneumonia among children under five years of age.

    PubMed Central

    Rudan, Igor; Tomaskovic, Lana; Boschi-Pinto, Cynthia; Campbell, Harry

    2004-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Clinical pneumonia (defined as respiratory infections associated with clinical signs of pneumonia, principally pneumonia and bronchiolitis) in children under five years of age is still the leading cause of childhood mortality in the world. In this paper we aim to estimate the worldwide incidence of clinical pneumonia in young children. METHODS: Our estimate for the developing world is based on an analysis of published data on the incidence of clinical pneumonia from community based longitudinal studies. Among more than 2000 studies published since 1961, we identified 46 studies that reported the incidence of clinical pneumonia, and 28 of these met pre-defined quality criteria. FINDINGS: The estimate of the median incidence from those studies was 0.28 episodes per child-year (e/cy). The 25-75% interquartile range was 0.21-0.71. We assessed the plausibility of this estimate using estimates of global mortality from acute respiratory infections and reported case fatality rates for all episodes of clinical pneumonia reported in community-based studies or the case-fatality rate reported only for severe cases and estimates of the proportion of severe cases occurring in a defined population or community. CONCLUSION: The overlap between the ranges of the estimates implies that a plausible incidence estimate of clinical pneumonia for developing countries is 0.29 e/cy. This equates to an annual incidence of 150.7 million new cases, 11-20 million (7-13%) of which are severe enough to require hospital admission. In the developed world no comparable data are available. However, large population-based studies report that the incidence of community-acquired pneumonia among children less than five years old is approximately 0.026 e/cy, suggesting that more than 95% of all episodes of clinical pneumonia in young children worldwide occur in developing countries. PMID:15654403

  9. The extinct, giant giraffid Sivatherium giganteum: skeletal reconstruction and body mass estimation.

    PubMed

    Basu, Christopher; Falkingham, Peter L; Hutchinson, John R

    2016-01-01

    Sivatherium giganteum is an extinct giraffid from the Plio-Pleistocene boundary of the Himalayan foothills. To date, there has been no rigorous skeletal reconstruction of this unusual mammal. Historical and contemporary accounts anecdotally state that Sivatherium rivalled the African elephant in terms of its body mass, but this statement has never been tested. Here, we present a three-dimensional composite skeletal reconstruction and calculate a representative body mass estimate for this species using a volumetric method. We find that the estimated adult body mass of 1246 kg (857-1812 kg range) does not approach that of an African elephant, but confirms that Sivatherium was certainly a large giraffid, and may have been the largest ruminant mammal that has ever existed. We contrast this volumetric estimate with a bivariate scaling estimate derived from Sivatherium's humeral circumference and find that there is a discrepancy between the two. The difference implies that the humeral circumference of Sivatherium is greater than expected for an animal of this size, and we speculate this may be linked to a cranial shift in centre of mass.

  10. Estimating the Kernel Mass Ratio in Peanuts Nondestructively Using a Low-Cost Impedance Meter

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Earlier, we investigated the possibility of estimating the mass of the kernels in a given volume of unshelled peanuts using a commercial impedance meter. Measurements of impedance and phase angles of peanut samples were made from 1 to 10 MHz at intervals of 1 MHz. The measured values were correlate...

  11. Estimate of rock mass stability in surface–borehole mining of high-grade iron ore

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sammal, AS; Antsiferov, SV; Deev, PV; Sergeev, SV

    2017-02-01

    Under consideration is the estimate of rock mass stability around underground openings generated as a result of hydraulic borehole mining of iron ore. The authors use analytical solutions of two plane elasticity problems on stress state of infinite media with the zone of weakening in the form of one or two circular holes, given initial stresses are set in the study domains.

  12. Measurement Agreement between Estimates of Aerobic Fitness in Youth: The Impact of Body Mass Index

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Saint-Maurice, Pedro F.; Welk, Gregory J.; Laurson, Kelly R.; Brown, Dale D.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of body mass index (BMI) on the agreement between aerobic capacity estimates from different Progressive Aerobic Cardiorespiratory Endurance Run (PACER) equations and the Mile Run Test. Method: The agreement between 2 different tests of aerobic capacity was examined on a large data set…

  13. Mass load estimation errors utilizing grab sampling strategies in a karst watershed

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fogle, A.W.; Taraba, J.L.; Dinger, J.S.

    2003-01-01

    Developing a mass load estimation method appropriate for a given stream and constituent is difficult due to inconsistencies in hydrologic and constituent characteristics. The difficulty may be increased in flashy flow conditions such as karst. Many projects undertaken are constrained by budget and manpower and do not have the luxury of sophisticated sampling strategies. The objectives of this study were to: (1) examine two grab sampling strategies with varying sampling intervals and determine the error in mass load estimates, and (2) determine the error that can be expected when a grab sample is collected at a time of day when the diurnal variation is most divergent from the daily mean. Results show grab sampling with continuous flow to be a viable data collection method for estimating mass load in the study watershed. Comparing weekly, biweekly, and monthly grab sampling, monthly sampling produces the best results with this method. However, the time of day the sample is collected is important. Failure to account for diurnal variability when collecting a grab sample may produce unacceptable error in mass load estimates. The best time to collect a sample is when the diurnal cycle is nearest the daily mean.

  14. The extinct, giant giraffid Sivatherium giganteum: skeletal reconstruction and body mass estimation

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Sivatherium giganteum is an extinct giraffid from the Plio–Pleistocene boundary of the Himalayan foothills. To date, there has been no rigorous skeletal reconstruction of this unusual mammal. Historical and contemporary accounts anecdotally state that Sivatherium rivalled the African elephant in terms of its body mass, but this statement has never been tested. Here, we present a three-dimensional composite skeletal reconstruction and calculate a representative body mass estimate for this species using a volumetric method. We find that the estimated adult body mass of 1246 kg (857—1812 kg range) does not approach that of an African elephant, but confirms that Sivatherium was certainly a large giraffid, and may have been the largest ruminant mammal that has ever existed. We contrast this volumetric estimate with a bivariate scaling estimate derived from Sivatherium's humeral circumference and find that there is a discrepancy between the two. The difference implies that the humeral circumference of Sivatherium is greater than expected for an animal of this size, and we speculate this may be linked to a cranial shift in centre of mass. PMID:26763212

  15. A comparison of approaches for estimating bottom-sediment mass in large reservoirs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Juracek, Kyle E.

    2006-01-01

    Estimates of sediment and sediment-associated constituent loads and yields from drainage basins are necessary for the management of reservoir-basin systems to address important issues such as reservoir sedimentation and eutrophication. One method for the estimation of loads and yields requires a determination of the total mass of sediment deposited in a reservoir. This method involves a sediment volume-to-mass conversion using bulk-density information. A comparison of four computational approaches (partition, mean, midpoint, strategic) for using bulk-density information to estimate total bottom-sediment mass in four large reservoirs indicated that the differences among the approaches were not statistically significant. However, the lack of statistical significance may be a result of the small sample size. Compared to the partition approach, which was presumed to provide the most accurate estimates of bottom-sediment mass, the results achieved using the strategic, mean, and midpoint approaches differed by as much as ?4, ?20, and ?44 percent, respectively. It was concluded that the strategic approach may merit further investigation as a less time consuming and less costly alternative to the partition approach.

  16. Ratios of the molecular species of triacylglycerols in lesquerella (Physaria fendleri) oil estimated by mass spectrometry

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The ratios of regioisomers of 74 molecular species of triacylglycerols (TAG) in lesquerella oil were estimated using HPLC and the electrospray ionization mass spectrometry of the lithium adducts of TAG in the HPLC fractions of lequerella oil. The ratios of relative abundances of the fragment ions fr...

  17. Ratios of the molecular species of triacylglycerols in lesquerella (Physaria fendleri) oil estimated by mass spectrometry

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The ratios of regioisomers of 72 molecular species of triacylglycerols (TAG) in lesquerella oil were estimated using the electrospray ionization mass spectrometry of the lithium adducts of TAG in the HPLC fractions of lesquerella oil. The ratios of ion signal intensities (or relative abundances) of ...

  18. Initial estimates of mercury emissions to the atmosphere from global biomass burning.

    PubMed

    Friedli, H R; Arellano, A F; Cinnirella, S; Pirrone, N

    2009-05-15

    The average global annual mercury emission estimate from biomass burning (BMB) for 1997-2006 is 675 +/- 240 Mg/year. This is equivalentto 8% of all currently known anthropogenic and natural mercury emissions. By season, the largest global emissions occur in August and September, the lowest during northern winters. The interannual variability is large and region-specific, and responds to drought conditions. During this particular time period, the largest mercury emissions are from tropical and boreal Asia, followed by Africa and South America. They do not coincide with the largest carbon biomass burning emissions, which originate from Africa. Frequently burning grasslands in Africa and Australia, and agricultural waste burning globally, contribute relatively little to the mercury budget The released mercury from BMB is eventually deposited locally and globally and contributes to the formation of toxic bioaccumulating methyl mercury. Furthermore, increasing temperature in boreal regions, where the largest soil mercury pools reside, is expected to exacerbate mercury emission because of more frequent larger, and more intense fires.

  19. Global Estimation of Soil Nitrous Oxide Emission Using a Semi-Empirical Model and a Global Dataset

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashimoto, S.

    2015-12-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) flux is one of the major greenhouse gas fluxes from terrestrial ecosystems. N2O is produced as a by-product of the transformations of nitrogen in the soil and is generally released from the soil surface to the atmosphere. The purpose of this study is to provide a data-oriented global estimate of N2O flux from the soil. In this study, a semi-empirical model was developed by modifying a model for soil CO2 flux (Raich et al. 2002). The model consists of the functions of nitrogen, air temperature, and precipitation. The parameters of the functions were determined using a global dataset of N2O emission (Stehfest and Bouwman 2006) through the Bayesian approach. The function of nitrogen is a function of carbon to nitrogen ratio. For agricultural land use, the effect of nitrogen fertilizer was also incorporated in the function of nitrogen. The model was applied at a spatial resolution of 5 min and at a monthly time resolution. Preliminary calculation revealed that the total amount of N2O emission was 10 Tg N yr-1. The upland natural land was the major source of N2O emission, followed by the upland agricultural land. Latitudinally, the flux was high at 30°N-40°N and 10°S-10°N. The major contribution to the peak at 30°N-40°N was by the upland agricultural land and that to the peak around the equator was by the upland natural land. The monthly flux showed a clear seasonality, and it was the highest and lowest in August and February, respectively. The global scale seasonality was mainly contributed by the N2O flux from the upland agricultural land in the northern mid-latitude. This study provides data-oriented spatiotemporal distribution of soil N2O flux, and I hope that these data will be used for a benchmark and constraint of process-based modeling.

  20. Estimating shaking-induced casualties and building damage for global earthquake events: a proposed modelling approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    So, Emily; Spence, Robin

    2013-01-01

    Recent earthquakes such as the Haiti earthquake of 12 January 2010 and the Qinghai earthquake on 14 April 2010 have highlighted the importance of rapid estimation of casualties after the event for humanitarian response. Both of these events resulted in surprisingly high death tolls, casualties and survivors made homeless. In the Mw = 7.0 Haiti earthquake, over 200,000 people perished with more than 300,000 reported injuries and 2 million made homeless. The Mw = 6.9 earthquake in Qinghai resulted in over 2,000 deaths with a further 11,000 people with serious or moderate injuries and 100,000 people have been left homeless in this mountainous region of China. In such events relief efforts can be significantly benefitted by the availability of rapid estimation and mapping of expected casualties. This paper contributes to ongoing global efforts to estimate probable earthquake casualties very rapidly after an earthquake has taken place. The analysis uses the assembled empirical damage and casualty data in the Cambridge Earthquake Impacts Database (CEQID) and explores data by event and across events to test the relationships of building and fatality distributions to the main explanatory variables of building type, building damage level and earthquake intensity. The prototype global casualty estimation model described here uses a semi-empirical approach that estimates damage rates for different classes of buildings present in the local building stock, and then relates fatality rates to the damage rates of each class of buildings. This approach accounts for the effect of the very different types of buildings (by climatic zone, urban or rural location, culture, income level etc), on casualties. The resulting casualty parameters were tested against the overall casualty data from several historical earthquakes in CEQID; a reasonable fit was found.

  1. An analysis of errors in special sensor microwave imager evaporation estimates over the global oceans

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Esbensen, S. K.; Chelton, D. B.; Vickers, D.; Sun, J.

    1993-01-01

    The method proposed by Liu (1984) is used to estimate monthly averaged evaporation over the global oceans from 1 yr of special sensor microwave imager (SDSM/I) data. Intercomparisons involving SSM/I and in situ data are made over a wide range of oceanic conditions during August 1987 and February 1988 to determine the source of errors in the evaporation estimates. The most significant spatially coherent evaporation errors are found to come from estimates of near-surface specific humidity, q. Systematic discrepancies of over 2 g/kg are found in the tropics, as well as in the middle and high latitudes. The q errors are partitioned into contributions from the parameterization of q in terms of the columnar water vapor, i.e., the Liu q/W relationship, and from the retrieval algorithm for W. The effects of W retrieval errors are found to be smaller over most of the global oceans and due primarily to the implicitly assumed vertical structures of temperature and specific humidity on which the physically based SSM/I retrievals of W are based.

  2. A numerical study on dust devil dust transport: Implications to regional and global dust budget estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klose, M.; Shao, Y.

    2015-12-01

    The amount of dust transported by dust devils (DDs) is subject to large uncertainties because the dust emission mechanisms in DDs are not yet well understood. Reducing this uncertainty is essential to estimate the contribution of DDs to the global dust budget and to study their impact on climate and the environment. Here, large-eddy simulation coupled with a dust emission scheme is used to investigate DD dust entrainment. DDs are identified from the simulations using various threshold values for pressure drop and vorticity in the DD center. The results show that DD dust lifting can be largely explained by convective turbulent dust emission. DD dust entrainment varies strongly between individual DDs even for similar atmospheric conditions, but the maximum emissions are determined by atmospheric stability. By relating DD emission and counts to Richardson number, we propose a new and simple method to estimate regional and global DD dust transport. The method is applied to results of regional model simulations for Australia, thus providing an estimate of the contribution of DDs to the Australian dust budget.

  3. Position Estimation and Local Mapping Using Omnidirectional Images and Global Appearance Descriptors

    PubMed Central

    Berenguer, Yerai; Payá, Luis; Ballesta, Mónica; Reinoso, Oscar

    2015-01-01

    This work presents some methods to create local maps and to estimate the position of a mobile robot, using the global appearance of omnidirectional images. We use a robot that carries an omnidirectional vision system on it. Every omnidirectional image acquired by the robot is described only with one global appearance descriptor, based on the Radon transform. In the work presented in this paper, two different possibilities have been considered. In the first one, we assume the existence of a map previously built composed of omnidirectional images that have been captured from previously-known positions. The purpose in this case consists of estimating the nearest position of the map to the current position of the robot, making use of the visual information acquired by the robot from its current (unknown) position. In the second one, we assume that we have a model of the environment composed of omnidirectional images, but with no information about the location of where the images were acquired. The purpose in this case consists of building a local map and estimating the position of the robot within this map. Both methods are tested with different databases (including virtual and real images) taking into consideration the changes of the position of different objects in the environment, different lighting conditions and occlusions. The results show the effectiveness and the robustness of both methods. PMID:26501289

  4. Plate Motion and Crustal Deformation Estimated with Geodetic Data from the Global Positioning System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Argus, Donald F.; Heflin, Michael B.

    1995-01-01

    We use geodetic data taken over four years with the Global Positioning System (GPS) to estimate: (1) motion between six major plates and (2) motion relative to these plates of ten sites in plate boundary zones. The degree of consistency between geodetic velocities and rigid plates requires the (one-dimensional) standard errors in horizontal velocities to be approx. 2 mm/yr. Each of the 15 angular velocities describing motion between plate pairs that we estimate with GPS differs insignificantly from the corresponding angular velocity in global plate motion model NUVEL-1A, which averages motion over the past 3 m.y. The motion of the Pacific plate relative to both the Eurasian and North American plates is observed to be faster than predicted by NUVEL-1A, supporting the inference from Very Long B ase- line Interferometry (VLBI) that motion of the Pacific plate has speed up over the past few m.y. The Eurasia-North America pole of rotation is estimated to be north of NUVEL-1A, consistent with the independent hypothesis that the pole has recently migrated northward across northeast Asia to near the Lena River delta. Victoria, which lies above the main thrust at the Cascadia subduction zone, moves relative to the interior of the overriding plate at 30% of the velocity of the subducting plate, reinforcing the conclusion that the thrust there is locked beneath the continental shelf and slope.

  5. Position estimation and local mapping using omnidirectional images and global appearance descriptors.

    PubMed

    Berenguer, Yerai; Payá, Luis; Ballesta, Mónica; Reinoso, Oscar

    2015-10-16

    This work presents some methods to create local maps and to estimate the position of a mobile robot, using the global appearance of omnidirectional images. We use a robot that carries an omnidirectional vision system on it. Every omnidirectional image acquired by the robot is described only with one global appearance descriptor, based on the Radon transform. In the work presented in this paper, two different possibilities have been considered. In the first one, we assume the existence of a map previously built composed of omnidirectional images that have been captured from previously-known positions. The purpose in this case consists of estimating the nearest position of the map to the current position of the robot, making use of the visual information acquired by the robot from its current (unknown) position. In the second one, we assume that we have a model of the environment composed of omnidirectional images, but with no information about the location of where the images were acquired. The purpose in this case consists of building a local map and estimating the position of the robot within this map. Both methods are tested with different databases (including virtual and real images) taking into consideration the changes of the position of different objects in the environment, different lighting conditions and occlusions. The results show the effectiveness and the robustness of both methods.

  6. Temperature-based estimation of global solar radiation using soft computing methodologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohammadi, Kasra; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Danesh, Amir Seyed; Abdullah, Mohd Shahidan; Zamani, Mazdak

    2016-07-01

    Precise knowledge of solar radiation is indeed essential in different technological and scientific applications of solar energy. Temperature-based estimation of global solar radiation would be appealing owing to broad availability of measured air temperatures. In this study, the potentials of soft computing techniques are evaluated to estimate daily horizontal global solar radiation (DHGSR) from measured maximum, minimum, and average air temperatures ( T max, T min, and T avg) in an Iranian city. For this purpose, a comparative evaluation between three methodologies of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), radial basis function support vector regression (SVR-rbf), and polynomial basis function support vector regression (SVR-poly) is performed. Five combinations of T max, T min, and T avg are served as inputs to develop ANFIS, SVR-rbf, and SVR-poly models. The attained results show that all ANFIS, SVR-rbf, and SVR-poly models provide favorable accuracy. Based upon all techniques, the higher accuracies are achieved by models (5) using T max- T min and T max as inputs. According to the statistical results, SVR-rbf outperforms SVR-poly and ANFIS. For SVR-rbf (5), the mean absolute bias error, root mean square error, and correlation coefficient are 1.1931 MJ/m2, 2.0716 MJ/m2, and 0.9380, respectively. The survey results approve that SVR-rbf can be used efficiently to estimate DHGSR from air temperatures.

  7. Estimating the sources of global sea level rise with data assimilation techniques.

    PubMed

    Hay, Carling C; Morrow, Eric; Kopp, Robert E; Mitrovica, Jerry X

    2013-02-26

    A rapidly melting ice sheet produces a distinctive geometry, or fingerprint, of sea level (SL) change. Thus, a network of SL observations may, in principle, be used to infer sources of meltwater flux. We outline a formalism, based on a modified Kalman smoother, for using tide gauge observations to estimate the individual sources of global SL change. We also report on a series of detection experiments based on synthetic SL data that explore the feasibility of extracting source information from SL records. The Kalman smoother technique iteratively calculates the maximum-likelihood estimate of Greenland ice sheet (GIS) and West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) melt at each time step, and it accommodates data gaps while also permitting the estimation of nonlinear trends. Our synthetic tests indicate that when all tide gauge records are used in the analysis, it should be possible to estimate GIS and WAIS melt rates greater than ∼0.3 and ∼0.4 mm of equivalent eustatic sea level rise per year, respectively. We have also implemented a multimodel Kalman filter that allows us to account rigorously for additional contributions to SL changes and their associated uncertainty. The multimodel filter uses 72 glacial isostatic adjustment models and 3 ocean dynamic models to estimate the most likely models for these processes given the synthetic observations. We conclude that our modified Kalman smoother procedure provides a powerful method for inferring melt rates in a warming world.

  8. Estimating the sources of global sea level rise with data assimilation techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hay, Carling C.; Morrow, Eric; Kopp, Robert E.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.

    2013-02-01

    A rapidly melting ice sheet produces a distinctive geometry, or fingerprint, of sea level (SL) change. Thus, a network of SL observations may, in principle, be used to infer sources of meltwater flux. We outline a formalism, based on a modified Kalman smoother, for using tide gauge observations to estimate the individual sources of global SL change. We also report on a series of detection experiments based on synthetic SL data that explore the feasibility of extracting source information from SL records. The Kalman smoother technique iteratively calculates the maximum-likelihood estimate of Greenland ice sheet (GIS) and West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) melt at each time step, and it accommodates data gaps while also permitting the estimation of nonlinear trends. Our synthetic tests indicate that when all tide gauge records are used in the analysis, it should be possible to estimate GIS and WAIS melt rates greater than ∼0.3 and ∼0.4 mm of equivalent eustatic sea level rise per year, respectively. We have also implemented a multimodel Kalman filter that allows us to account rigorously for additional contributions to SL changes and their associated uncertainty. The multimodel filter uses 72 glacial isostatic adjustment models and 3 ocean dynamic models to estimate the most likely models for these processes given the synthetic observations. We conclude that our modified Kalman smoother procedure provides a powerful method for inferring melt rates in a warming world.

  9. Estimating global per-capita carbon emissions with VIIRS nighttime lights satellite data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jasmin, T.; Desai, A. R.; Pierce, R. B.

    2015-12-01

    With the launch of the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite in November 2011, we now have nighttime lights remote sensing capability vastly improved over the predecessor Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP), owing to improved spatial and radiometric resolution provided by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Day Night Band (DNB) along with technology improvements in data transfer, processing, and storage. This development opens doors for improving novel scientific applications utilizing remotely sensed low-level visible light, for purposes ranging from estimating population to inferring factors relating to economic development. For example, the success of future international agreements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will be dependent on mechanisms to monitor remotely for compliance. Here, we discuss implementation and evaluation of the VRCE system (VIIRS Remote Carbon Estimates), developed at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, which provides monthly independent, unbiased estimates of per-capita carbon emissions. Cloud-free global composites of Earth nocturnal lighting are generated from VIIRS DNB at full spatial resolution (750 meter). A population equation is derived from a linear regression of DNB radiance sums at state level to U.S. Census data. CO2 emissions are derived from a linear regression of VIIRS DNB radiance sums to U.S. Department of Energy emission estimates. Regional coefficients for factors such as percentage of energy use from renewable sources are factored in, and together these equations are used to generate per-capita CO2 emission estimates at the country level.

  10. Estimation of daily global solar radiation as a function of routine meteorological data in Mediterranean areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meza, Francisco Javier; Yebra, María Lorenzo

    2016-08-01

    Solar radiation is the main responsible of many processes of the biophysical environment. Temperature changes, snow melt dynamics, carbon sequestration, evaporation from soils, plants, and open water bodies are explained by the amount of radiation received in a surface. Lack of direct observations and insufficient record length limit the ability to use global solar radiation information for resource use management and planning. Based on the general equation of Bristow and Campbell, we propose a modification that allows us to better represent atmospheric transmissivity as a function of routine meteorological variables and improve estimates of global solar radiation in Mediterranean and semi arid areas. The improved Bristow-Campbell model (IBC) is easy to use in any location where measurements of temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity are available, and present a simple solution that can be used as proxy for relative humidity in case that variable is not been measured.

  11. Using Machine Learning to Estimate Global PM2.5 for Environmental Health Studies

    PubMed Central

    Lary, D. J.; Lary, T.; Sattler, B.

    2015-01-01

    With the increasing awareness of health impacts of particulate matter, there is a growing need to comprehend the spatial and temporal variations of the global abundance of ground-level airborne particulate matter (PM2.5). Here we use a suite of remote sensing and meteorological data products together with ground based observations of PM2.5 from 8,329 measurement sites in 55 countries taken between 1997 and 2014 to train a machine learning algorithm to estimate the daily distributions of PM2.5 from 1997 to the present. We demonstrate that the new PM2.5 data product can reliably represent global observations of PM2.5 for epidemiological studies. An analysis of Baltimore schizophrenia emergency room admissions is presented in terms of the levels of ambient pollution. PM2.5 appears to have an impact on some aspects of mental health. PMID:26005352

  12. Selective Segmentation for Global Optimization of Depth Estimation in Complex Scenes

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Sheng; Jin, Haiqiang; Mao, Xiaojun; Zhai, Binbin; Zhan, Ye; Feng, Xiaofei

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes a segmentation-based global optimization method for depth estimation. Firstly, for obtaining accurate matching cost, the original local stereo matching approach based on self-adapting matching window is integrated with two matching cost optimization strategies aiming at handling both borders and occlusion regions. Secondly, we employ a comprehensive smooth term to satisfy diverse smoothness request in real scene. Thirdly, a selective segmentation term is used for enforcing the plane trend constraints selectively on the corresponding segments to further improve the accuracy of depth results from object level. Experiments on the Middlebury image pairs show that the proposed global optimization approach is considerably competitive with other state-of-the-art matching approaches. PMID:23766717

  13. Estimation of affine motion from projection data using a mass conservation model.

    PubMed

    Negahdar, Mohammadreza; Amini, Amir A

    2011-01-01

    An approximate model for the effect of respiration is that the cross section of the thoracic area under interrogation experience time-varying magnification and displacement along two perpendicular axes - we propose to model this motion as parametric affine motion. A theoretical framework for determination of parameters of affine motion modeling the global respiratory motion based on the sinogram data in the projection domain is described. It is assumed that the spatial image considered is a density image where conservation of mass holds.

  14. Effect of GIA models with 3D composite mantle viscosity on GRACE mass balance estimates for Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Wal, Wouter; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; Schrama, Ernst J. O.

    2015-03-01

    Seismic data indicate that there are large viscosity variations in the mantle beneath Antarctica. Consideration of such variations would affect predictions of models of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA), which are used to correct satellite measurements of ice mass change. However, most GIA models used for that purpose have assumed the mantle to be uniformly stratified in terms of viscosity. The goal of this study is to estimate the effect of lateral variations in viscosity on Antarctic mass balance estimates derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data. To this end, recently-developed global GIA models based on lateral variations in mantle temperature are tuned to fit constraints in the northern hemisphere and then compared to GPS-derived uplift rates in Antarctica. We find that these models can provide a better fit to GPS uplift rates in Antarctica than existing GIA models with a radially-varying (1D) rheology. When 3D viscosity models in combination with specific ice loading histories are used to correct GRACE measurements, mass loss in Antarctica is smaller than previously found for the same ice loading histories and their preferred 1D viscosity profiles. The variation in mass balance estimates arising from using different plausible realizations of 3D viscosity amounts to 20 Gt/yr for the ICE-5G ice model and 16 Gt/yr for the W12a ice model; these values are larger than the GRACE measurement error, but smaller than the variation arising from unknown ice history. While there exist 1D Earth models that can reproduce the total mass balance estimates derived using 3D Earth models, the spatial pattern of gravity rates can be significantly affected by 3D viscosity in a way that cannot be reproduced by GIA models with 1D viscosity. As an example, models with 1D viscosity always predict maximum gravity rates in the Ross Sea for the ICE-5G ice model, however, for one of the three preferred 3D models the maximum (for the same ice model) is found

  15. Complementary information from TRMM and CloudSat to improve our global estimate of precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Behrangi, A.; Stephens, G. L.; Adler, R. F.; Huffman, G. J.; Lambrigtsen, B.; Lebsock, M. D.

    2013-12-01

    Complementary information from CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR), TRMM PR, and AMSR-E are used to investigate the precipitation detection and estimation performance of a suite of precipitation measuring sensors, commonly used in the production of the merged precipitation products. CPR has high sensitivity to liquid and frozen hydrometeors and can provide added information with respect to the measurement of light rain and snowfall within 80oS-80oN. PR has also enabled significant advancement in quantification of moderate to intense rainfall. The study requires careful consideration of the scale issues among different sensors that will be discussed. Furthermore, we expand the sensor-level analysis to investigate the performance of the global precipitation climatology products: GPCP and CMAP. CloudSat together with TRMM and AMSR-E are used to calculate the mean global precipitation rate and its zonal distribution through a merging process constrained by precipitation occurrence from CloudSat. The three sensors have not been used in GPCP and CMAP thus give us an independent estimate of global precipitation and can be used to understand and assess the strengths and potential weaknesses of the two products. The insights gained from the analysis are found extremely useful to guide our future updates of the products as well as to design future precipitation measuring sensors. The study highlights the important role of GPM to better detect and quantify global precipitation using its Ka/Ku band dual frequency precipitation radar (DPR) and multichannel passive microwave imager (GMI).

  16. A simplified procedure for mass and stiffness estimation of existing structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nigro, Antonella; Ditommaso, Rocco; Carlo Ponzo, Felice; Salvatore Nigro, Domenico

    2016-04-01

    This work focuses the attention on a parametric method for mass and stiffness identification of framed structures, based on frequencies evaluation. The assessment of real structures is greatly affected by the consistency of information retrieved on materials and on the influence of both non-structural components and soil. One of the most important matter is the correct definition of the distribution, both in plan and in elevation, of mass and stiffness: depending on concentrated and distributed loads, the presence of infill panels and the distribution of structural elements. In this study modal identification is performed under several mass-modified conditions and structural parameters consistent with the identified modal parameters are determined. Modal parameter identification of a structure before and after the introduction of additional masses is conducted. By considering the relationship between the additional masses and modal properties before and after the mass modification, structural parameters of a damped system, i.e. mass, stiffness and damping coefficient are inversely estimated from these modal parameters variations. The accuracy of the method can be improved by using various mass-modified conditions. The proposed simplified procedure has been tested on both numerical and experimental models by means linear numerical analyses and shaking table tests performed on scaled structures at the Seismic Laboratory of the University of Basilicata (SISLAB). Results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed procedure to estimate masses and stiffness of existing real structures with a maximum error equal to 10%, under the worst conditions. Acknowledgements This study was partially funded by the Italian Civil Protection Department within the project DPC-RELUIS 2015 - RS4 ''Seismic observatory of structures and health monitoring''.

  17. Body mass estimation in xenarthra: a predictive equation suitable for all quadrupedal terrestrial placentals?

    PubMed

    De Esteban-Trivigno, Soledad; Mendoza, Manuel; De Renzi, Miquel

    2008-10-01

    The Magnorder Xenarthra includes strange extinct groups, like glyptodonts, similar to large armadillos, and ground sloths, terrestrial relatives of the extant tree sloths. They have created considerable paleobiological interest in the last decades; however, the ecology of most of these species is still controversial or unknown. The body mass estimation of extinct species has great importance for paleobiological reconstructions. The commonest way to estimate body mass from fossils is through linear regression. However, if the studied species does not have similar extant relatives, the allometric pattern described by the regression could differ from those shown by the extinct group. That is the case for glyptodonts and ground sloths. Thus, stepwise multiple regression were developed including extant xenarthrans (their taxonomic relatives) and ungulates (their size and ecological relatives). Cases were weighted to maximize the taxonomic evenness. Twenty-eight equations were obtained. The distribution of the percent of prediction error (%PE) was analyzed between taxonomic groups (Perissodactyla, Artiodactyla, and Xenarthra) and size groups (0-20 kg, 20-300 kg, and more than 300 kg). To assess the predictive power of the functions, equations were applied to species not included in the regression development [test set cross validation, (TSCV)]. Only five equations had a homogeneous %PE between the aforementioned groups. These were applied to five extinct species. A mean body mass of 80 kg was estimated for Propalaehoplophorus australis (Cingulata: Glyptodontidae), 594 kg for Scelidotherium leptocephalum (Phyllophaga: Mylodontidae), and 3,550.7 kg for Lestodon armatus (Phyllophaga: Mylodontidae). The high scatter of the body mass estimations obtained for Catonyx tarijensis (Phyllophaga: Mylodontidae) and Thalassocnus natans (Phyllophaga: Megatheriidae), probably due to different specializations, prevented us from predicting its body mass. Surprisingly, although obtained

  18. Assessment of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Mass Balance Estimates: 1992 - 2009

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zwally, H. Jay; Giovinetto, Mario B.

    2011-01-01

    Published mass balance estimates for the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) lie between approximately +50 to -250 Gt/year for 1992 to 2009, which span a range equivalent to 15% of the annual mass input and 0.8 mm/year Sea Level Equivalent (SLE). Two estimates from radar-altimeter measurements of elevation change by European Remote-sensing Satellites (ERS) (+28 and -31 Gt/year) lie in the upper part, whereas estimates from the Input-minus-Output Method (IOM) and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) lie in the lower part (-40 to -246 Gt/year). We compare the various estimates, discuss the methodology used, and critically assess the results. Although recent reports of large and accelerating rates of mass loss from GRACE=based studies cite agreement with IOM results, our evaluation does not support that conclusion. We find that the extrapolation used in the published IOM estimates for the 15 % of the periphery for which discharge velocities are not observed gives twice the rate of discharge per unit of associated ice-sheet area than the 85% faster-moving parts. Our calculations show that the published extrapolation overestimates the ice discharge by 282 Gt/yr compared to our assumption that the slower moving areas have 70% as much discharge per area as the faster moving parts. Also, published data on the time-series of discharge velocities and accumulation/precipitation do not support mass output increases or input decreases with time, respectively. Our modified IOM estimate, using the 70% discharge assumption and substituting input from a field-data compilation for input from an atmospheric model over 6% of area, gives a loss of only 13 Gt/year (versus 136 Gt/year) for the period around 2000. Two ERS-based estimates, our modified IOM, and a GRACE-based estimate for observations within 1992 to 2005 lie in a narrowed range of +27 to - 40 Gt/year, which is about 3% of the annual mass input and only 0.2 mm/year SLE. Our preferred estimate for 1992-2001 is - 47 Gt

  19. X-ray dual energy spectral parameter optimization for bone Calcium/Phosphorus mass ratio estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sotiropoulou, P. I.; Fountos, G. P.; Martini, N. D.; Koukou, V. N.; Michail, C. M.; Valais, I. G.; Kandarakis, I. S.; Nikiforidis, G. C.

    2015-09-01

    Calcium (Ca) and Phosphorus (P) bone mass ratio has been identified as an important, yet underutilized, risk factor in osteoporosis diagnosis. The purpose of this simulation study is to investigate the use of effective or mean mass attenuation coefficient in Ca/P mass ratio estimation with the use of a dual-energy method. The investigation was based on the minimization of the accuracy of Ca/P ratio, with respect to the Coefficient of Variation of the ratio. Different set-ups were examined, based on the K-edge filtering technique and single X-ray exposure. The modified X-ray output was attenuated by various Ca/P mass ratios resulting in nine calibration points, while keeping constant the total bone thickness. The simulated data were obtained considering a photon counting energy discriminating detector. The standard deviation of the residuals was used to compare and evaluate the accuracy between the different dual energy set-ups. The optimum mass attenuation coefficient for the Ca/P mass ratio estimation was the effective coefficient in all the examined set-ups. The variation of the residuals between the different set-ups was not significant.

  20. An advanced shape-fitting algorithm applied to quadrupedal mammals: improving volumetric mass estimates

    PubMed Central

    Brassey, Charlotte A.; Gardiner, James D.

    2015-01-01

    Body mass is a fundamental physical property of an individual and has enormous bearing upon ecology and physiology. Generating reliable estimates for body mass is therefore a necessary step in many palaeontological studies. Whilst early reconstructions of mass in extinct species relied upon isolated skeletal elements, volumetric techniques are increasingly applied to fossils when skeletal completeness allows. We apply a new ‘alpha shapes’ (α-shapes) algorithm to volumetric mass estimation in quadrupedal mammals. α-shapes are defined by: (i) the underlying skeletal structure to which they are fitted; and (ii) the value α, determining the refinement of fit. For a given skeleton, a range of α-shapes may be fitted around the individual, spanning from very coarse to very fine. We fit α-shapes to three-dimensional models of extant mammals and calculate volumes, which are regressed against mass to generate predictive equations. Our optimal model is characterized by a high correlation coefficient and mean square error (r2=0.975, m.s.e.=0.025). When applied to the woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius) and giant ground sloth (Megatherium americanum), we reconstruct masses of 3635 and 3706 kg, respectively. We consider α-shapes an improvement upon previous techniques as resulting volumes are less sensitive to uncertainties in skeletal reconstructions, and do not require manual separation of body segments from skeletons. PMID:26361559

  1. An advanced shape-fitting algorithm applied to quadrupedal mammals: improving volumetric mass estimates.

    PubMed

    Brassey, Charlotte A; Gardiner, James D

    2015-08-01

    Body mass is a fundamental physical property of an individual and has enormous bearing upon ecology and physiology. Generating reliable estimates for body mass is therefore a necessary step in many palaeontological studies. Whilst early reconstructions of mass in extinct species relied upon isolated skeletal elements, volumetric techniques are increasingly applied to fossils when skeletal completeness allows. We apply a new 'alpha shapes' (α-shapes) algorithm to volumetric mass estimation in quadrupedal mammals. α-shapes are defined by: (i) the underlying skeletal structure to which they are fitted; and (ii) the value α, determining the refinement of fit. For a given skeleton, a range of α-shapes may be fitted around the individual, spanning from very coarse to very fine. We fit α-shapes to three-dimensional models of extant mammals and calculate volumes, which are regressed against mass to generate predictive equations. Our optimal model is characterized by a high correlation coefficient and mean square error (r (2)=0.975, m.s.e.=0.025). When applied to the woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius) and giant ground sloth (Megatherium americanum), we reconstruct masses of 3635 and 3706 kg, respectively. We consider α-shapes an improvement upon previous techniques as resulting volumes are less sensitive to uncertainties in skeletal reconstructions, and do not require manual separation of body segments from skeletons.

  2. Estimating Cosmological Parameters and Cluster Masses through Escape Velocity Measurements in Galaxy Clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gifford, Daniel William

    2016-08-01

    Galaxy clusters are large virialized structures that exist at the intersection of filaments of matter that make up the cosmic web. Due to their hierarchical growth history, they are excellent probes of the cosmology that governs our universe. Here, we aim to use clusters to better constrain cosmological parameters by systematically studying the uncertainties on galaxy cluster mass estimation for use in a halo mass function analysis. We find that the caustic technique is capable on average of recovering unbiased cluster masses to within 30% for well sampled systems. We also quantify potential statistical and systematic biases due to observational challenges. To address statistical biases in the caustic technique, we developed a new stacking algorithm to measure the average cluster mass for a single stack of projected cluster phase-spaces. By varying the number of galaxies and number of clusters we stack, we find that the single limited value is the total number of galaxies in the stack opening up the possibility for self-calibrated mass estimates of low mass or poorly sampled clusters in large surveys. We then utilize the SDSS-C4 catalog of galaxy clusters to place some of the tightest galaxy cluster based constraints on the matter density and power spectrum normalization for matter in our universe.

  3. Double-observer approach to estimating egg mass abundance of vernal pool breeding amphibians

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grant, E.H.C.; Jung, R.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

    2005-01-01

    Interest in seasonally flooded pools, and the status of associated amphibian populations, has initiated programs in the northeastern United States to document and monitor these habitats. Counting egg masses is an effective way to determine the population size of pool-breeding amphibians, such as wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) and spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum). However, bias is associated with counts if egg masses are missed. Counts unadjusted for the proportion missed (i.e., without adjustment for detection probability) could lead to false assessments of population trends. We used a dependent double-observer method in 2002-2003 to estimate numbers of wood frog and spotted salamander egg masses at seasonal forest pools in 13 National Wildlife Refuges, 1 National Park, 1 National Seashore, and 1 State Park in the northeastern United States. We calculated detection probabilities for egg masses and examined whether detection probabilities varied by species, observers, pools, and in relation to pool characteristics (pool area, pool maximum depth, within-pool vegetation). For the 2 years, model selection indicated that no consistent set of variables explained the variation in data sets from individual Refuges and Parks. Because our results indicated that egg mass detection probabilities vary spatially and temporally, we conclude that it is essential to use estimation procedures, such as double-observer methods with egg mass surveys, to determine population sizes and trends of these species.

  4. Global distribution of soil organic carbon, based on the Harmonized World Soil Database - Part 1: Masses and frequency distribution of SOC stocks for the tropics, permafrost regions, wetlands, and the world

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Köchy, M.; Hiederer, R.; Freibauer, A.

    2014-09-01

    The global soil organic carbon (SOC) mass is relevant for the carbon cycle budget. We review current estimates of soil organic carbon stocks (mass/area) and mass (stock × area) in wetlands, permafrost and tropical regions and the world in the upper 1 m of soil. The Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) v.1.2 provides one of the most recent and coherent global data sets of SOC, giving a total mass of 2476 Pg. Correcting the HWSD's bulk density of organic soils, especially Histosols, results in a mass of 1062 Pg. The uncertainty of bulk density of Histosols alone introduces a range of -56 to +180 Pg for the estimate of global SOC in the top 1 m, larger than estimates of global soil respiration. We report the spatial distribution of SOC stocks per 0.5 arc minutes, the areal masses of SOC and the quantiles of SOC stocks by continents, wetland types, and permafrost types. Depending on the definition of "wetland", wetland soils contain between 82 and 158 Pg SOC. Incorporating more detailed estimates for permafrost from the Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Data Base (496 Pg SOC) and tropical peatland carbon, global soils contain 1324 Pg SOC in the upper 1 m including 421 Pg in tropical soils, whereof 40 Pg occur in tropical wetlands. Global SOC amounts to just under 3000 Pg when estimates for deeper soil layers are included. Variability in estimates is due to variation in definitions of soil units, differences in soil property databases, scarcity of information about soil carbon at depths > 1 m in peatlands, and variation in definitions of "peatland".

  5. A global trait-based approach to estimate leaf nitrogen functional allocation from observations.

    PubMed

    Ghimire, Bardan; Riley, William J; Koven, Charles D; Kattge, Jens; Rogers, Alistair; Reich, Peter B; Wright, Ian J

    2017-03-28

    Nitrogen is one of the most important nutrients for plant growth and a major constituent of proteins that regulate photosynthetic and respiratory processes. However, a comprehensive global analysis of nitrogen allocation in leaves for major processes with respect to different plant functional types is currently lacking. This study integrated observations from global databases with photosynthesis and respiration models to determine plant-functional-type-specific allocation patterns of leaf nitrogen for photosynthesis (Rubisco, electron transport, light absorption) and respiration (growth and maintenance), and by difference from observed total leaf nitrogen, an unexplained "residual" nitrogen pool. Based on our analysis, crops partition the largest fraction of nitrogen to photosynthesis (57%) and respiration (5%) followed by herbaceous plants (44% and 4%). Tropical broadleaf evergreen trees partition the least to photosynthesis (25%) and respiration (2%) followed by needle-leaved evergreen trees (28% and 3%). In trees (especially needle-leaved evergreen and tropical broadleaf evergreen trees) a large fraction (70% and 73% respectively) of nitrogen was not explained by photosynthetic or respiratory functions. Compared to crops and herbaceous plants, this large residual pool is hypothesized to emerge from larger investments in cell wall proteins, lipids, amino acids, nucleic acid, CO2 fixation proteins (other than Rubisco), secondary compounds, and other proteins. Our estimates are different from previous studies due to differences in methodology and assumptions used in deriving nitrogen allocation estimates. Unlike previous studies, we integrate and infer nitrogen allocation estimates across multiple plant functional types, and report substantial differences in nitrogen allocation across different plant functional types. The resulting pattern of nitrogen allocation provides insights on mechanisms that operate at a cellular scale within leaves, and can be integrated

  6. A global trait-based approach to estimate leaf nitrogen functional allocation from observations

    DOE PAGES

    Ghimire, Bardan; Riley, William J.; Koven, Charles D.; ...

    2017-03-28

    Nitrogen is one of the most important nutrients for plant growth and a major constituent of proteins that regulate photosynthetic and respiratory processes. However, a comprehensive global analysis of nitrogen allocation in leaves for major processes with respect to different plant functional types is currently lacking. This study integrated observations from global databases with photosynthesis and respiration models to determine plant-functional-type-specific allocation patterns of leaf nitrogen for photosynthesis (Rubisco, electron transport, light absorption) and respiration (growth and maintenance), and by difference from observed total leaf nitrogen, an unexplained “residual” nitrogen pool. Based on our analysis, crops partition the largest fractionmore » of nitrogen to photosynthesis (57%) and respiration (5%) followed by herbaceous plants (44% and 4%). Tropical broadleaf evergreen trees partition the least to photosynthesis (25%) and respiration (2%) followed by needle-leaved evergreen trees (28% and 3%). In trees (especially needle-leaved evergreen and tropical broadleaf evergreen trees) a large fraction (70% and 73% respectively) of nitrogen was not explained by photosynthetic or respiratory functions. Compared to crops and herbaceous plants, this large residual pool is hypothesized to emerge from larger investments in cell wall proteins, lipids, amino acids, nucleic acid, CO2 fixation proteins (other than Rubisco), secondary compounds, and other proteins. Our estimates are different from previous studies due to differences in methodology and assumptions used in deriving nitrogen allocation estimates. Unlike previous studies, we integrate and infer nitrogen allocation estimates across multiple plant functional types, and report substantial differences in nitrogen allocation across different plant functional types. Furthermore, the resulting pattern of nitrogen allocation provides insights on mechanisms that operate at a cellular scale within leaves

  7. Audit of the global carbon budget: estimate errors and their impact on uptake uncertainty

    SciTech Connect

    Ballantyne, A. P.; Andres, R.; Houghton, R.; Stocker, B. D.; Wanninkhof, R.; Anderegg, W.; Cooper, L. A.; DeGrandpre, M.; Tans, P. P.; Miller, J. B.; Alden, C.; White, J. W. C.

    2015-04-30

    Over the last 5 decades monitoring systems have been developed to detect changes in the accumulation of carbon (C) in the atmosphere and ocean; however, our ability to detect changes in the behavior of the global C cycle is still hindered by measurement and estimate errors. Here we present a rigorous and flexible framework for assessing the temporal and spatial components of estimate errors and their impact on uncertainty in net C uptake by the biosphere. We present a novel approach for incorporating temporally correlated random error into the error structure of emission estimates. Based on this approach, we conclude that the 2σ uncertainties of the atmospheric growth rate have decreased from 1.2 Pg C yr₋1 in the 1960s to 0.3 Pg C yr₋1 in the 2000s due to an expansion of the atmospheric observation network. The 2σ uncertainties in fossil fuel emissions have increased from 0.3 Pg C yr₋1 in the 1960s to almost 1.0 Pg C yr₋1 during the 2000s due to differences in national reporting errors and differences in energy inventories. Lastly, while land use emissions have remained fairly constant, their errors still remain high and thus their global C uptake uncertainty is not trivial. Currently, the absolute errors in fossil fuel emissions rival the total emissions from land use, highlighting the extent to which fossil fuels dominate the global C budget. Because errors in the atmospheric growth rate have decreased faster than errors in total emissions have increased, a ~20% reduction in the overall uncertainty of net C global uptake has occurred. Given all the major sources of error in the global C budget that we could identify, we are 93% confident that terrestrial C uptake has increased and 97% confident that ocean C uptake has increased over the last 5 decades. Thus, it is clear that arguably one of the most vital ecosystem services currently provided by the biosphere is the continued removal of approximately half

  8. Audit of the global carbon budget: estimate errors and their impact on uptake uncertainty

    DOE PAGES

    Ballantyne, A. P.; Andres, R.; Houghton, R.; ...

    2015-04-30

    Over the last 5 decades monitoring systems have been developed to detect changes in the accumulation of carbon (C) in the atmosphere and ocean; however, our ability to detect changes in the behavior of the global C cycle is still hindered by measurement and estimate errors. Here we present a rigorous and flexible framework for assessing the temporal and spatial components of estimate errors and their impact on uncertainty in net C uptake by the biosphere. We present a novel approach for incorporating temporally correlated random error into the error structure of emission estimates. Based on this approach, we concludemore » that the 2σ uncertainties of the atmospheric growth rate have decreased from 1.2 Pg C yr₋1 in the 1960s to 0.3 Pg C yr₋1 in the 2000s due to an expansion of the atmospheric observation network. The 2σ uncertainties in fossil fuel emissions have increased from 0.3 Pg C yr₋1 in the 1960s to almost 1.0 Pg C yr₋1 during the 2000s due to differences in national reporting errors and differences in energy inventories. Lastly, while land use emissions have remained fairly constant, their errors still remain high and thus their global C uptake uncertainty is not trivial. Currently, the absolute errors in fossil fuel emissions rival the total emissions from land use, highlighting the extent to which fossil fuels dominate the global C budget. Because errors in the atmospheric growth rate have decreased faster than errors in total emissions have increased, a ~20% reduction in the overall uncertainty of net C global uptake has occurred. Given all the major sources of error in the global C budget that we could identify, we are 93% confident that terrestrial C uptake has increased and 97% confident that ocean C uptake has increased over the last 5 decades. Thus, it is clear that arguably one of the most vital ecosystem services currently provided by the biosphere is the continued removal of approximately half of atmospheric CO2 emissions from the

  9. Audit of the global carbon budget: estimate errors and their impact on uptake uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballantyne, A. P.; Andres, R.; Houghton, R.; Stocker, B. D.; Wanninkhof, R.; Anderegg, W.; Cooper, L. A.; DeGrandpre, M.; Tans, P. P.; Miller, J. B.; Alden, C.; White, J. W. C.

    2015-04-01

    Over the last 5 decades monitoring systems have been developed to detect changes in the accumulation of carbon (C) in the atmosphere and ocean; however, our ability to detect changes in the behavior of the global C cycle is still hindered by measurement and estimate errors. Here we present a rigorous and flexible framework for assessing the temporal and spatial components of estimate errors and their impact on uncertainty in net C uptake by the biosphere. We present a novel approach for incorporating temporally correlated random error into the error structure of emission estimates. Based on this approach, we conclude that the 2σ uncertainties of the atmospheric growth rate have decreased from 1.2 Pg C yr-1 in the 1960s to 0.3 Pg C yr-1 in the 2000s due to an expansion of the atmospheric observation network. The 2σ uncertainties in fossil fuel emissions have increased from 0.3 Pg C yr-1 in the 1960s to almost 1.0 Pg C yr-1 during the 2000s due to differences in national reporting errors and differences in energy inventories. Lastly, while land use emissions have remained fairly constant, their errors still remain high and thus their global C uptake uncertainty is not trivial. Currently, the absolute errors in fossil fuel emissions rival the total emissions from land use, highlighting the extent to which fossil fuels dominate the global C budget. Because errors in the atmospheric growth rate have decreased faster than errors in total emissions have increased, a ~20% reduction in the overall uncertainty of net C global uptake has occurred. Given all the major sources of error in the global C budget that we could identify, we are 93% confident that terrestrial C uptake has increased and 97% confident that ocean C uptake has increased over the last 5 decades. Thus, it is clear that arguably one of the most vital ecosystem services currently provided by the biosphere is the continued removal of approximately half of atmospheric CO2 emissions from the atmosphere

  10. Science and User Needs for Observing Global Mass Transport to Understand Global Change and to Benefit Society

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pail, Roland; Bingham, Rory; Braitenberg, Carla; Dobslaw, Henryk; Eicker, Annette; Güntner, Andreas; Horwath, Martin; Ivins, Eric; Longuevergne, Laurent; Panet, Isabelle; Wouters, Bert

    2015-11-01

    Satellite gravimetry is a unique measurement technique for observing mass transport processes in the Earth system on a global scale, providing essential indicators of both subtle and dramatic global change. Although past and current satellite gravity missions have achieved spectacular science results, due to their limited spatial and temporal resolution as well as limited length of the available time series numerous important questions are still unresolved. Therefore, it is important to move from current demonstration capabilities to sustained observation of the Earth's gravity field. In an international initiative performed under the umbrella of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, consensus on the science and user needs for a future satellite gravity observing system has been derived by an international panel of scientists representing the main fields of application, i.e., continental hydrology, cryosphere, ocean, atmosphere and solid Earth. In this paper the main results and findings of this initiative are summarized. The required target performance in terms of equivalent water height has been identified as 5 cm for monthly fields and 0.5 cm/year for long-term trends at a spatial resolution of 150 km. The benefits to meet the main scientific and societal objectives are investigated, and the added value is demonstrated for selected case studies covering the main fields of application. The resulting consolidated view on the required performance of a future sustained satellite gravity observing system represents a solid basis for the definition of technological and mission requirements, and is a prerequisite for mission design studies of future mission concepts and constellations.

  11. Late Frasnian mass extinction: Conodont event stratigraphy, global changes, and possible causes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sandberg, Charles A.; Ziegler, Willi; Dreesen, Roland; Butler, Jamie L.

    1988-01-01

    Several abrupt changes in conodont biofacies are documented to occur synchronously at six primary control sections across the Frasnian-Famennian boundary in Euramerica. These changes occurred within a time-span of only about 100,000 years near the end of the latest Frasnian linguiformis Zone, which is formally named to replace the Uppermost gigas Zone. The conodont-biofacies changes are interpreted to reflect a eustatic rise followed by an abrupt eustatic fall immediately preceding the late Frasnian mass extinction. Two new conodont species are named and described. Ancyrognathus ubiquitus n.sp. is recorded only just below and above the level of late Frasnian extinction and hence is a global marker for that event. Palmatolepispraetriangularis n.sp. is the long-sought Frasnian ancestor of the formerly cryptogenic species, Pa. triangularis, indicator of the earliest Famennian Lower triangularis Zone. The actual extinction event occurred entirely within the Frasnian and is interpreted to have been of brief duration-from as long as 20,000 years to as short as several days. The eustatic rise-and-fall couplet associated with the late Frasnian mass extinction is similar to eustatic couplets associated with the demise of most Frasnian (F2h) reefs worldwide about 1 m.y. earlier and with a latest Famennian mass extinction about 9.5 m.y. later. All these events may be directly or indirectly attributable to extraterrestrial triggering mechanisms. An impact of a small bolide or a near miss of a larger bolide may have caused the earlier demise of Frasnian reefs. An impact of possibly the same larger bolide in the Southern Hemisphere would explain the late Frasnian mass extinction. Global regression during the Famennian probably resulted from Southern-Hemisphere glaciation triggered by the latest Frasnian impact. Glaciation probably was the indirect cause of the latest Famennian mass extinction.

  12. Global Impact Estimation of ISO 50001 Energy Management System for Industrial and Service Sectors

    SciTech Connect

    Aghajanzadeh, Arian; Therkelsen, Peter L.; Rao, Prakash; McKane, Aimee T.

    2016-08-01

    A methodology has been developed to determine the impacts of ISO 50001 Energy Management System (EnMS) at a region or country level. The impacts of ISO 50001 EnMS include energy, CO2 emissions, and cost savings. This internationally recognized and transparent methodology has been embodied in a user friendly Microsoft Excel® based tool called ISO 50001 Impact Estimator Tool (IET 50001). However, the tool inputs are critical in order to get accurate and defensible results. This report is intended to document the data sources used and assumptions made to calculate the global impact of ISO 50001 EnMS.

  13. RETIRED A STARS: THE EFFECT OF STELLAR EVOLUTION ON THE MASS ESTIMATES OF SUBGIANTS

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, John Asher; Morton, Timothy D.; Wright, Jason T.

    2013-01-20

    Doppler surveys have shown that the occurrence rate of Jupiter-mass planets appears to increase as a function of stellar mass. However, this result depends on the ability to accurately measure the masses of evolved stars. Recently, Lloyd called into question the masses of subgiant stars targeted by Doppler surveys. Lloyd argues that very few observable subgiants have masses greater than 1.5 M {sub Sun }, and that most of them have masses in the range 1.0-1.2 M {sub Sun }. To investigate this claim, we use Galactic stellar population models to generate an all-sky distribution of stars. We incorporate the effects that make massive subgiants less numerous, such as the initial mass function and differences in stellar evolution timescales. We find that these effects lead to negligibly small systematic errors in stellar mass estimates, in contrast to the Almost-Equal-To 50% errors predicted by Lloyd. Additionally, our simulated target sample does in fact include a significant fraction of stars with masses greater than 1.5 M {sub Sun }, primarily because the inclusion of an apparent magnitude limit results in a Malmquist-like bias toward more massive stars, in contrast to the volume-limited simulations of Lloyd. The magnitude limit shifts the mean of our simulated distribution toward higher masses and results in a relatively smaller number of evolved stars with masses in the range 1.0-1.2 M {sub Sun }. We conclude that, within the context of our present-day understanding of stellar structure and evolution, many of the subgiants observed in Doppler surveys are indeed as massive as main-sequence A stars.

  14. Estimating the Heat and Mass Flux at the ASHES Hydrothermal Vent Field with the Sentry Autonomous Underwater Vehicle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kinsey, J. C.; Crone, T. J.; Mittelstaedt, E. L.; Medagoda, L.; Fourie, D.; Nakamura, K.

    2014-12-01

    Hydrothermal venting influences ocean chemistry, the thermal and chemical structure of the oceanic crust, the style of accretion at mid-ocean ridges, and the evolution of unique and diverse chemosynthetic ecosystems. Surprisingly, only a few studies have attempted to constrain the volume and heat flux of entire hydrothermal vent fields given that axially-hosted hydrothermal systems are estimated to be responsible for ~20-25% of the total heat flux out of the Earth's interior, as well as potentially playing a large role in global and local biogeochemical cycles. However, same-site estimates can vary greatly, such as at the Lucky Strike Field where estimates range from 100 MW to 3800 MW. We report a July 2014 field program with the Sentry AUV that obtains the water velocity and heat measurements necessary to estimate the total heat and mass flux emanating from the ASHES hydrothermal vent field. We equipped Sentry with a Nortek acoustic Doppler velocimeter (ADV) with an inertial measurement unit attached, two acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs), and two SBE3 temperature probes, to measure the temperature and water velocity. This sensing suite provided more accurate measurements than previous AUV based studies. A control volume approach was employed in which Sentry was pre-programmed to survey a 150m by 150m box centered over the vent field flying a "mowing the lawn" pattern at 5m trackline spacing followed by a survey of the perimeter. During a 40 hour survey, the pattern was repeated 9 times allowing us to obtain observations over multiple tidal cycles. Concurrent lowered ADCP (LADCP) measurements were also obtained. Water velocity data obtained with Sentry was corrected for platform motion and then combined with the temperature measurements to estimate heat flux. Analysis of this data is on-going, however these experiments permit us to quantify the heat and mass exiting the control volume, and potentially provide the most accurate and highest resolution heat

  15. Oceanic primary production 2. Estimation at global scale from satellite (coastal zone color scanner) chlorophyll

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antoine, David; André, Jean-Michel; Morel, André

    A fast method has been proposed [Antoine and Morel, this issue] to compute the oceanic primary production from the upper ocean chlorophyll-like pigment concentration, as it can be routinely detected by a spaceborne ocean color sensor. This method is applied here to the monthly global maps of the photosynthetic pigments that were derived from the coastal zone color scanner (CZCS) data archive [Feldman et al., 1989]. The photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) field is computed from the astronomical constant and by using an atmospheric model, thereafter combined with averaged cloud information, derived from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). The aim is to assess the seasonal evolution, as well as the spatial distribution of the photosynthetic carbon fixation within the world ocean and for a ``climatological year,'' to the extent that both the chlorophyll information and the cloud coverage statistics actually are averages obtained over several years. The computed global annual production actually ranges between 36.5 and 45.6 Gt C yr-1 according to the assumption which is made (0.8 or 1) about the ratio of active-to-total pigments (recall that chlorophyll and pheopigments are not radiometrically resolved by CZCS). The relative contributions to the global productivity of the various oceans and zonal belts are examined. By considering the hypotheses needed in such computations, the nature of the data used as inputs, and the results of the sensitivity studies, the global numbers have to be cautiously considered. Improving the reliability of the primary production estimates implies (1) new global data sets allowing a higher temporal resolution and a better coverage, (2) progress in the knowledge of physiological responses of phytoplankton and therefore refinements of the time and space dependent parameterizations of these responses.

  16. Consistency of Estimated Global Water Cycle Variations Over the Satellite Era

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robertson, F. R.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Roberts, J. B.; Reichle, R. H.; Adler, R.; Ricciardulli, L.; Berg, W.; Huffman, G. J.

    2013-01-01

    Motivated by the question of whether recent indications of decadal climate variability and a possible "climate shift" may have affected the global water balance, we examine evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) variability integrated over the global oceans and global land from three points of view-remotely sensed retrievals / objective analyses over the oceans, reanalysis vertically-integrated moisture convergence (MFC) over land, and land surface models forced with observations-based precipitation, radiation and near-surface meteorology. Because monthly variations in area-averaged atmospheric moisture storage are small and the global integral of moisture convergence must approach zero, area-integrated E-P over ocean should essentially equal precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET) over land (after adjusting for ocean and land areas). Our analysis reveals considerable uncertainty in the decadal variations of ocean evaporation when integrated to global scales. This is due to differences among datasets in 10m wind speed and near-surface atmospheric specific humidity (2m qa) used in bulk aerodynamic retrievals. Precipitation variations, all relying substantially on passive microwave retrievals over ocean, still have uncertainties in decadal variability, but not to the degree present with ocean evaporation estimates. Reanalysis MFC and P-ET over land from several observationally forced diagnostic and land surface models agree best on interannual variations. However, upward MFC (i.e. P-ET) reanalysis trends are likely related in part to observing system changes affecting atmospheric assimilation models. While some evidence for a low-frequency E-P maximum near 2000 is found, consistent with a recent apparent pause in sea-surface temperature (SST) rise, uncertainties in the datasets used here remain significant. Prospects for further reducing uncertainties are discussed. The results are interpreted in the context of recent climate variability (Pacific Decadal

  17. On global optimization using an estimate of Lipschitz constant and simplicial partition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gimbutas, Albertas; Žilinskas, Antanas

    2016-10-01

    A new algorithm is proposed for finding the global minimum of a multi-variate black-box Lipschitz function with an unknown Lipschitz constant. The feasible region is initially partitioned into simplices; in the subsequent iteration, the most suitable simplices are selected and bisected via the middle point of the longest edge. The suitability of a simplex for bisection is evaluated by minimizing of a surrogate function which mimics the lower bound for the considered objective function over that simplex. The surrogate function is defined using an estimate of the Lipschitz constant and the objective function values at the vertices of a simplex. The novelty of the algorithm is the sophisticated method of estimating the Lipschitz constant, and the appropriate method to minimize the surrogate function. The proposed algorithm was tested using 600 random test problems of different complexity, showing competitive results with two popular advanced algorithms which are based on similar assumptions.

  18. Ionospheric total-electron-content estimation for single-frequency Global-positioning-system receivers

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, C.A.

    1987-01-01

    The ionosphere delays transmissions from the Global Positioning System (GPS), as well as those from other satellite systems. At the GPS frequencies (L-Band), this delay is directly proportional to the total ionospheric electron content (TEC) along the line-of-sight to the satellite. Classified receivers have access to 2 frequencies to allow them to measure this delay through the difference in the ionospheric effect at the 2 frequencies, but commercial, single-frequency receivers have had no direct method for estimating the ionospheric delay; they have had to rely on a TEC prediction. Two methods are described for single-frequency GPS receivers to estimate the ionospheric TEC directly. These methods take advantage of the dispersive nature of the ionosphere at L-Band frequencies, which causes a phase advance of the carrier that is opposite to the group delay of the GPS code and data.

  19. A comparison of global estimates of marine primary production from ocean color

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carr, Mary-Elena; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.; Schmeltz, Marjorie; Noguchi Aita, Maki; Antoine, David; Arrigo, Kevin R.; Asanuma, Ichio; Aumont, Olivier; Barber, Richard; Behrenfeld, Michael; Bidigare, Robert; Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Campbell, Janet; Ciotti, Aurea; Dierssen, Heidi; Dowell, Mark; Dunne, John; Esaias, Wayne; Gentili, Bernard; Gregg, Watson; Groom, Steve; Hoepffner, Nicolas; Ishizaka, Joji; Kameda, Takahiko; Le Quéré, Corinne; Lohrenz, Steven; Marra, John; Mélin, Frédéric; Moore, Keith; Morel, André; Reddy, Tasha E.; Ryan, John; Scardi, Michele; Smyth, Tim; Turpie, Kevin; Tilstone, Gavin; Waters, Kirk; Yamanaka, Yasuhiro

    2006-03-01

    The third primary production algorithm round robin (PPARR3) compares output from 24 models that estimate depth-integrated primary production from satellite measurements of ocean color, as well as seven general circulation models (GCMs) coupled with ecosystem or biogeochemical models. Here we compare the global primary production fields corresponding to eight months of 1998 and 1999 as estimated from common input fields of photosynthetically-available radiation (PAR), sea-surface temperature (SST), mixed-layer depth, and chlorophyll concentration. We also quantify the sensitivity of the ocean-color-based models to perturbations in their input variables. The pair-wise correlation between ocean-color models was used to cluster them into groups or related output, which reflect the regions and environmental conditions under which they respond differently. The groups do not follow model complexity with regards to wavelength or depth dependence, though they are related to the manner in which temperature is used to parameterize photosynthesis. Global average PP varies by a factor of two between models. The models diverged the most for the Southern Ocean, SST under 10C, and chlorophyll concentration exceeding 1 mg Chl m-3. Based on the conditions under which the model results diverge most, we conclude that current ocean-color-based models are challenged by high-nutrient low-chlorophyll conditions, and extreme temperatures or chlorophyll concentrations. The GCM-based models predict comparable primary production to those based on ocean color: they estimate higher values in the Southern Ocean, at low SST, and in the equatorial band, while they estimate lower values in eutrophic regions (probably because the area of high chlorophyll concentrations is smaller in the GCMs). Further progress in primary production modeling requires improved understanding of the effect of temperature on photosynthesis and better parameterization of the maximum photosynthetic rate.

  20. Global trends in dietary micronutrient supplies and estimated prevalence of inadequate intakes.

    PubMed

    Beal, Ty; Massiot, Eric; Arsenault, Joanne E; Smith, Matthew R; Hijmans, Robert J

    2017-01-01

    Understanding dietary patterns is vital to reducing the number of people experiencing hunger (about 795 million), micronutrient deficiencies (2 billion), and overweight or obesity (2.1 billion). We characterize global trends in dietary quality by estimating micronutrient density of the food supply, prevalence of inadequate intake of 14 micronutrients, and average prevalence of inadequate intake of these micronutrients for all countries between 1961 and 2011. Over this 50-year period, the estimated prevalence of inadequate intakes of micronutrients has declined in all regions due to increased total production of food and/or micronutrient density. This decline has been particularly strong in East and Southeast Asia and weaker in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region where dietary micronutrient density has declined over this 50-year period. At the global level, micronutrients with the lowest levels of adequate estimated intake are calcium, iron, vitamin A, and zinc, but there are strong differences between countries and regions. Fortification has reduced the estimated prevalence of inadequate micronutrient intakes in all low-income regions, except South Asia. The food supply in many countries is still far below energy requirements, which suggests a need to increase the availability and accessibility of nutritious foods. Countries where the food energy supply is adequate show a very large variation in dietary quality, and in many of these countries people would benefit from more diverse diets with a greater proportion of micronutrient-dense foods. Dietary quality can be improved through fortification, biofortification, and agricultural diversification, as well as efforts to improve access to and use of micronutrient-dense foods and nutritional knowledge. Reducing poverty and increasing education, especially of women, are integral to sustainably addressing malnutrition.

  1. Progress Toward a Global, EOS-Era Aerosol Air Mass Type Climatology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kahn, Ralph A.

    2012-01-01

    The MISR and MODIS instruments aboard the NASA Earth Observing System's Terra Satellite have been collecting data containing information about the state of Earth's atmosphere and surface for over eleven years. Data from these instruments have been used to develop a global, monthly climatology of aerosol amount that is widely used as a constraint on climate models, including those used for the 2007 IPCC assessment report. The next frontier in assessing aerosol radiative forcing of climate is aerosol type, and in particular, the absorption properties of major aerosol air masses. This presentation will focus on the prospects for constraining aerosol type globally, and the steps we are taking to apply a combination of satellite and suborbital data to this challenge.

  2. Estimates of the magnitudes of major marine mass extinctions in earth history

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Procedures introduced here make it possible, first, to show that background (piecemeal) extinction is recorded throughout geologic stages and substages (not all extinction has occurred suddenly at the ends of such intervals); second, to separate out background extinction from mass extinction for a major crisis in earth history; and third, to correct for clustering of extinctions when using the rarefaction method to estimate the percentage of species lost in a mass extinction. Also presented here is a method for estimating the magnitude of the Signor–Lipps effect, which is the incorrect assignment of extinctions that occurred during a crisis to an interval preceding the crisis because of the incompleteness of the fossil record. Estimates for the magnitudes of mass extinctions presented here are in most cases lower than those previously published. They indicate that only ∼81% of marine species died out in the great terminal Permian crisis, whereas levels of 90–96% have frequently been quoted in the literature. Calculations of the latter numbers were incorrectly based on combined data for the Middle and Late Permian mass extinctions. About 90 orders and more than 220 families of marine animals survived the terminal Permian crisis, and they embodied an enormous amount of morphological, physiological, and ecological diversity. Life did not nearly disappear at the end of the Permian, as has often been claimed. PMID:27698119

  3. Estimates of the magnitudes of major marine mass extinctions in earth history.

    PubMed

    Stanley, Steven M

    2016-10-18

    Procedures introduced here make it possible, first, to show that background (piecemeal) extinction is recorded throughout geologic stages and substages (not all extinction has occurred suddenly at the ends of such intervals); second, to separate out background extinction from mass extinction for a major crisis in earth history; and third, to correct for clustering of extinctions when using the rarefaction method to estimate the percentage of species lost in a mass extinction. Also presented here is a method for estimating the magnitude of the Signor-Lipps effect, which is the incorrect assignment of extinctions that occurred during a crisis to an interval preceding the crisis because of the incompleteness of the fossil record. Estimates for the magnitudes of mass extinctions presented here are in most cases lower than those previously published. They indicate that only ∼81% of marine species died out in the great terminal Permian crisis, whereas levels of 90-96% have frequently been quoted in the literature. Calculations of the latter numbers were incorrectly based on combined data for the Middle and Late Permian mass extinctions. About 90 orders and more than 220 families of marine animals survived the terminal Permian crisis, and they embodied an enormous amount of morphological, physiological, and ecological diversity. Life did not nearly disappear at the end of the Permian, as has often been claimed.

  4. Estimates of the magnitudes of major marine mass extinctions in earth history

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stanley, Steven M.

    2016-10-01

    Procedures introduced here make it possible, first, to show that background (piecemeal) extinction is recorded throughout geologic stages and substages (not all extinction has occurred suddenly at the ends of such intervals); second, to separate out background extinction from mass extinction for a major crisis in earth history; and third, to correct for clustering of extinctions when using the rarefaction method to estimate the percentage of species lost in a mass extinction. Also presented here is a method for estimating the magnitude of the Signor-Lipps effect, which is the incorrect assignment of extinctions that occurred during a crisis to an interval preceding the crisis because of the incompleteness of the fossil record. Estimates for the magnitudes of mass extinctions presented here are in most cases lower than those previously published. They indicate that only ˜81% of marine species died out in the great terminal Permian crisis, whereas levels of 90-96% have frequently been quoted in the literature. Calculations of the latter numbers were incorrectly based on combined data for the Middle and Late Permian mass extinctions. About 90 orders and more than 220 families of marine animals survived the terminal Permian crisis, and they embodied an enormous amount of morphological, physiological, and ecological diversity. Life did not nearly disappear at the end of the Permian, as has often been claimed.

  5. Estimation of the auto frequency response function at unexcited points using dummy masses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hosoya, Naoki; Yaginuma, Shinji; Onodera, Hiroshi; Yoshimura, Takuya

    2015-02-01

    If structures with complex shapes have space limitations, vibration tests using an exciter or impact hammer for the excitation are difficult. Although measuring the auto frequency response function at an unexcited point may not be practical via a vibration test, it can be obtained by assuming that the inertia acting on a dummy mass is an external force on the target structure upon exciting a different excitation point. We propose a method to estimate the auto frequency response functions at unexcited points by attaching a small mass (dummy mass), which is comparable to the accelerometer mass. The validity of the proposed method is demonstrated by comparing the auto frequency response functions estimated at unexcited points in a beam structure to those obtained from numerical simulations. We also consider random measurement errors by finite element analysis and vibration tests, but not bias errors. Additionally, the applicability of the proposed method is demonstrated by applying it to estimate the auto frequency response function of the lower arm in a car suspension.

  6. How large are the extinct giant insular rodents? New body mass estimations from teeth and bones.

    PubMed

    Moncunill-Solé, Blanca; Jordana, Xavier; Marín-Moratalla, Nekane; Moyà-Solà, Salvador; Köhler, Meike

    2014-03-01

    The island rule entails a modification of the body size of insular mammals, a character related with numerous biological and ecological variables. From the Miocene to human colonization (Holocene), Mediterranean and Canary Islands were unaltered natural ecosystems, with paleofaunas formed with endemic giant rodents among other mammals. Our aim is to create methods to estimate the body masses of fossil island rodents and address the nature of ecological pressures driving the island rule. We created regression equations based on extant rodent data and used these to estimate the body masses of the extinct species. Our results show strong correlations between teeth, cranial and postcranial measurements and body mass, except for the length of the long bones, the transversal diameter of the distal tibia and the anteroposterior diameter of the proximal tibia, where the equations were less reliable. The use of equations obtained from a more homogeneous group (suborder and family) is preferable when analyzing the area of the first molar. The new regressions were applied to estimate the body masses of some Mediterranean and Canarian fossil rodents (Canariomys, C. bravoi 1.5 kg and C. tamarani 1 kg; Hypnomys, H. morpheus 230 g and H. onicensis 200 g; and Muscardinus cyclopeus 100 g). Our results indicate that under absence of predation, resource availability (island area) is the key factor that determines the size of the Canariomys sp. However, under presence of specialized predators (birds of prey), body size evolution is less pronounced (Hypnomys sp.).

  7. Sanitation: a global estimate of sewerage connections without treatment and the resulting impact on MDG progress.

    PubMed

    Baum, Rachel; Luh, Jeanne; Bartram, Jamie

    2013-02-19

    Progress toward the sanitation component of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) Target 7c was reassessed to account for the need to protect communities and the wider population from exposure to human excreta. We classified connections to sewerage as "improved sanitation" only if the sewage was treated before discharge to the environment. Sewerage connection data was available for 167 countries in 2010; of these, 77 had published data on sewage treatment prevalence. We developed an empirical model to estimate sewage treatment prevalence for 47 additional countries. We estimate that in 2010, 40% of the global population (2.8 billion people) used improved sanitation, as opposed to the estimate of 62% (4.3 billion people) from the WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP), and that 4.1 billion people lacked access to an improved sanitation facility. Redefining sewerage-without-treatment as "unimproved sanitation" in MDG monitoring would raise the 1990 baseline population using unimproved sanitation from 53% to 64% and the corresponding 2015 target from 27% to 32%. At the current rate of progress, we estimate a shortfall of 28 percentage points (1.9 billion people) in 2010 and a projected 27 percentage point shortfall in 2015.

  8. The global burden of diarrhoeal disease, as estimated from studies published between 1992 and 2000.

    PubMed Central

    Kosek, Margaret; Bern, Caryn; Guerrant, Richard L.

    2003-01-01

    Current estimates of the global burden of disease for diarrhoea are reported and compared with previous estimates made using data collected in 1954-79 and 1980-89. A structured literature review was used to identify studies that characterized morbidity rates by prospective surveillance of stable populations and studies that characterized mortality attributable to diarrhoea through active surveillance. For children under 5 years of age in developing areas and countries, there was a median of 3.2 episodes of diarrhoea per child-year. This indicated little change from previously described incidences. Estimates of mortality revealed that 4.9 children per 1000 per year in these areas and countries died as a result of diarrhoeal illness in the first 5 years of life, a decline from the previous estimates of 13.6 and 5.6 per 1000 per year. The decrease was most pronounced in children aged under 1 year. Despite improving trends in mortality rates, diarrhoea accounted for a median of 21% of all deaths of children aged under 5 years in these areas and countries, being responsible for 2.5 million deaths per year. There has not been a concurrent decrease in morbidity rates attributable to diarrhoea. As population growth is focused in the poorest areas, the total morbidity component of the disease burden is greater than previously. PMID:12764516

  9. JIGSAW: Joint Inhomogeneity estimation via Global Segment Assembly for Water-fat separation.

    PubMed

    Lu, Wenmiao; Lu, Yi

    2011-07-01

    Water-fat separation in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is of great clinical importance, and the key to uniform water-fat separation lies in field map estimation. This work deals with three-point field map estimation, in which water and fat are modelled as two single-peak spectral lines, and field inhomogeneities shift the spectrum by an unknown amount. Due to the simplified spectrum modelling, there exists inherent ambiguity in forming field maps from multiple locally feasible field map values at each pixel. To resolve such ambiguity, spatial smoothness of field maps has been incorporated as a constraint of an optimization problem. However, there are two issues: the optimization problem is computationally intractable and even when it is solved exactly, it does not always separate water and fat images. Hence, robust field map estimation remains challenging in many clinically important imaging scenarios. This paper proposes a novel field map estimation technique called JIGSAW. It extends a loopy belief propagation (BP) algorithm to obtain an approximate solution to the optimization problem. The solution produces locally smooth segments and avoids error propagation associated with greedy methods. The locally smooth segments are then assembled into a globally consistent field map by exploiting the periodicity of the feasible field map values. In vivo results demonstrate that JIGSAW outperforms existing techniques and produces correct water-fat separation in challenging imaging scenarios.

  10. The Importance of Broad Emission Line Widths in Single-epoch Black Hole Mass Estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Assef, R. J.; Frank, S.; Grier, C. J.; Kochanek, C. S.; Denney, K. D.; Peterson, B. M.

    2012-07-01

    Estimates of the mass of super-massive black holes (BHs) in distant active galactic nuclei (AGNs) can be obtained efficiently only through single-epoch (SE) spectra, using a combination of their broad emission line widths and continuum luminosities. Yet the reliability and accuracy of the method and the resulting mass estimates, M BH, remain uncertain. A recent study by Croom using a sample of Sloan Digital Sky Survey, 2dF QSO Redshift Survey, and 2dF-SDSS LRG and QSO Survey quasars suggests that line widths contribute little information about the BH mass in these SE estimates and can be replaced by a constant value without significant loss of accuracy. In this Letter, we use a sample of nearby reverberation-mapped AGNs to show that this conclusion is not universally applicable. We use the bulge luminosity (L Bulge) of these local objects to test how well the known M BH-L Bulge correlation is recovered when using randomly assigned line widths instead of the measured ones to estimate M BH. We find that line widths provide significant information about M BH, and that for this sample, the line width information is just as significant as that provided by the continuum luminosities. We discuss the effects of observational biases upon the analysis of Croom and suggest that the results can probably be explained as a bias of flux-limited, shallow quasar samples.

  11. Femur length, body mass, and stature estimates of Orrorin tugenensis, a 6 Ma hominid from Kenya.

    PubMed

    Nakatsukasa, Masato; Pickford, Martin; Egi, Naoko; Senut, Brigitte

    2007-07-01

    To understand the palaeobiology of extinct hominids it is useful to estimate their body mass and stature. Although many species of early hominid are poorly preserved, it is occasionally possible to calculate these characteristics by comparison with different extant groups, by use of regression analysis. Calculated body masses and stature determined using these models can then be compared. This approach has been applied to 6 Ma hominid femoral remains from the Tugen Hills, Kenya, attributed to Orrorin tugenensis. It is suggested that the best-preserved young adult individual probably weighed approximately 35-50 kg. Another fragmentary femur results in larger estimates of body mass, indicative of individual variation. The length of the femur of the young adult individual was estimated, by using anthropoid-based regression, to be a minimum of 298 mm. Because whole-femur proportions for Orrorin are unknown, this prediction is conservative and should be revised when additional specimens become available. When this predicted value was used for regression analysis of bonobos and humans it was estimated to be 1.1-1.2 m tall. This value should, however, be viewed as a lower limit.

  12. Evaluation of global equal-area mass grid solutions from GRACE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Save, Himanshu; Bettadpur, Srinivas; Tapley, Byron

    2015-04-01

    The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) range-rate data was inverted into global equal-area mass grid solutions at the Center for Space Research (CSR) using Tikhonov Regularization to stabilize the ill-posed inversion problem. These solutions are intended to be used for applications in Hydrology, Oceanography, Cryosphere etc without any need for post-processing. This paper evaluates these solutions with emphasis on spatial and temporal characteristics of the signal content. These solutions will be validated against multiple models and in-situ data sets.

  13. Global analysis of neutrino masses, mixings, and phases: Entering the era of leptonic CP violation searches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fogli, G. L.; Lisi, E.; Marrone, A.; Montanino, D.; Palazzo, A.; Rotunno, A. M.

    2012-07-01

    We perform a global analysis of neutrino oscillation data, including high-precision measurements of the neutrino mixing angle θ13 at reactor experiments, which have confirmed previous indications in favor of θ13>0. Recent data presented at the Neutrino 2012 conference are also included. We focus on the correlations between θ13 and the mixing angle θ23, as well as between θ13 and the neutrino CP-violation phase δ. We find interesting indications for θ23<π/4 and possible hints for δ˜π, with no significant difference between normal and inverted mass hierarchy.

  14. Bayesian Mass Estimates of the Milky Way: Including Measurement Uncertainties with Hierarchical Bayes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eadie, Gwendolyn M.; Springford, Aaron; Harris, William E.

    2017-02-01

    We present a hierarchical Bayesian method for estimating the total mass and mass profile of the Milky Way Galaxy. The new hierarchical Bayesian approach further improves the framework presented by Eadie et al. and Eadie and Harris and builds upon the preliminary reports by Eadie et al. The method uses a distribution function f({ E },L) to model the Galaxy and kinematic data from satellite objects, such as globular clusters (GCs), to trace the Galaxy’s gravitational potential. A major advantage of the method is that it not only includes complete and incomplete data simultaneously in the analysis, but also incorporates measurement uncertainties in a coherent and meaningful way. We first test the hierarchical Bayesian framework, which includes measurement uncertainties, using the same data and power-law model assumed in Eadie and Harris and find the results are similar but more strongly constrained. Next, we take advantage of the new statistical framework and incorporate all possible GC data, finding a cumulative mass profile with Bayesian credible regions. This profile implies a mass within 125 kpc of 4.8× {10}11{M}ȯ with a 95% Bayesian credible region of (4.0{--}5.8)× {10}11{M}ȯ . Our results also provide estimates of the true specific energies of all the GCs. By comparing these estimated energies to the measured energies of GCs with complete velocity measurements, we observe that (the few) remote tracers with complete measurements may play a large role in determining a total mass estimate of the Galaxy. Thus, our study stresses the need for more remote tracers with complete velocity measurements.

  15. Mass balance method for estimating transcapillary protein transport in an extremity

    SciTech Connect

    Friedman, J.J.; Hing, C.T.

    1985-03-01

    A clinical procedure for applying the mass balance method to estimate transcapillary protein transport was compared with the experimental procedure of direct tissue monitoring of the rate of /sup 125/I- albumin accumulation in the dog hindlimb under conditions of venous pressure (Pv) elevation, norepinephrine infusion, and hemorrhagic hypotension. Over a wide range of venous protein flux (0.2 to 4.6 mg/min x 100 gm), the two estimates correlated well. The correlation coefficients were 0.987, 0.962, and 0.993 for Pv elevation in the control state, during norepinephrine infusion, and following hemorrhage, respectively. Since the clinical format requires only estimates of tissue blood flow, the change in tissue volume, and the change in protein concentration easily obtained with strain gauge plethysmography and venous blood sampling, it represents a relatively innocuous procedure for estimating protein transport which should be suitable for clinical application.

  16. On the accuracy of Black Hole Mass estimation from Broad Emission Lines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mejia-Restrepo, Julian; Trakhtenbrot, Benny; Lira, Paulina; Netzer, Hagai; Capellupo, Daniel

    2016-08-01

    In this talk we compare single-epoch (SE) black hole mass (MBH) estimates based on low ionization (Hα, Hβ, and MgII) and high ionization (CIV) broad emission lines. We also examine the implications of different continuum modeling approaches in line width and MBH measurements. For this purpose we use a sample of 39 unobscured AGNs at z=1.55 selected to cover a large range in MBH (2.0dex) and L/Ledd (2.5dex) and observed by X-shooter. We find that using a local power-law continuum instead of a physically-motivated thin disk continuum leads to only slight underestimation of the FWHM of the lines and the associated MBH(FWHM). However, the line dispersion σ and associated MBH(σ) are strongly affected by the continuum placement providing less reliable mass estimates. We find that low ionization lines provides reliable virial MBH estimation. However, the CIV line is not reliable in the majority of the cases, indicating that the gas emitting this line may not be virialized. We find that Hα, Hβ show similar line widths and that FWHM(MgII) is about 30% narrower than FWHM(Hβ) . We test and confirm several recent suggestions to improve the accuracy in CIV-based mass estimates, relying on other UV emission lines. However, we find that such improvements do not help in reducing the scatter between CIV-based and Balmer-line-based mass estimates. This work has been recently accepted for publication in MNRAS.

  17. Sharing and community curation of mass spectrometry data with Global Natural Products Social Molecular Networking.

    PubMed

    Wang, Mingxun; Carver, Jeremy J; Phelan, Vanessa V; Sanchez, Laura M; Garg, Neha; Peng, Yao; Nguyen, Don Duy; Watrous, Jeramie; Kapono, Clifford A; Luzzatto-Knaan, Tal; Porto, Carla; Bouslimani, Amina; Melnik, Alexey V; Meehan, Michael J; Liu, Wei-Ting; Crüsemann, Max; Boudreau, Paul D; Esquenazi, Eduardo; Sandoval-Calderón, Mario; Kersten, Roland D; Pace, Laura A; Quinn, Robert A; Duncan, Katherine R; Hsu, Cheng-Chih; Floros, Dimitrios J; Gavilan, Ronnie G; Kleigrewe, Karin; Northen, Trent; Dutton, Rachel J; Parrot, Delphine; Carlson, Erin E; Aigle, Bertrand; Michelsen, Charlotte F; Jelsbak, Lars; Sohlenkamp, Christian; Pevzner, Pavel; Edlund, Anna; McLean, Jeffrey; Piel, Jörn; Murphy, Brian T; Gerwick, Lena; Liaw, Chih-Chuang; Yang, Yu-Liang; Humpf, Hans-Ulrich; Maansson, Maria; Keyzers, Robert A; Sims, Amy C; Johnson, Andrew R; Sidebottom, Ashley M; Sedio, Brian E; Klitgaard, Andreas; Larson, Charles B; Boya P, Cristopher A; Torres-Mendoza, Daniel; Gonzalez, David J; Silva, Denise B; Marques, Lucas M; Demarque, Daniel P; Pociute, Egle; O'Neill, Ellis C; Briand, Enora; Helfrich, Eric J N; Granatosky, Eve A; Glukhov, Evgenia; Ryffel, Florian; Houson, Hailey; Mohimani, Hosein; Kharbush, Jenan J; Zeng, Yi; Vorholt, Julia A; Kurita, Kenji L; Charusanti, Pep; McPhail, Kerry L; Nielsen, Kristian Fog; Vuong, Lisa; Elfeki, Maryam; Traxler, Matthew F; Engene, Niclas; Koyama, Nobuhiro; Vining, Oliver B; Baric, Ralph; Silva, Ricardo R; Mascuch, Samantha J; Tomasi, Sophie; Jenkins, Stefan; Macherla, Venkat; Hoffman, Thomas; Agarwal, Vinayak; Williams, Philip G; Dai, Jingqui; Neupane, Ram; Gurr, Joshua; Rodríguez, Andrés M C; Lamsa, Anne; Zhang, Chen; Dorrestein, Kathleen; Duggan, Brendan M; Almaliti, Jehad; Allard, Pierre-Marie; Phapale, Prasad; Nothias, Louis-Felix; Alexandrov, Theodore; Litaudon, Marc; Wolfender, Jean-Luc; Kyle, Jennifer E; Metz, Thomas O; Peryea, Tyler; Nguyen, Dac-Trung; VanLeer, Danielle; Shinn, Paul; Jadhav, Ajit; Müller, Rolf; Waters, Katrina M; Shi, Wenyuan; Liu, Xueting; Zhang, Lixin; Knight, Rob; Jensen, Paul R; Palsson, Bernhard Ø; Pogliano, Kit; Linington, Roger G; Gutiérrez, Marcelino; Lopes, Norberto P; Gerwick, William H; Moore, Bradley S; Dorrestein, Pieter C; Bandeira, Nuno

    2016-08-09

    The potential of the diverse chemistries present in natural products (NP) for biotechnology and medicine remains untapped because NP databases are not searchable with raw data and the NP community has no way to share data other than in published papers. Although mass spectrometry (MS) techniques are well-suited to high-throughput characterization of NP, there is a pressing need for an infrastructure to enable sharing and curation of data. We present Global Natural Products Social Molecular Networking (GNPS; http://gnps.ucsd.edu), an open-access knowledge base for community-wide organization and sharing of raw, processed or identified tandem mass (MS/MS) spectrometry data. In GNPS, crowdsourced curation of freely available community-wide reference MS libraries will underpin improved annotations. Data-driven social-networking should facilitate identification of spectra and foster collaborations. We also introduce the concept of 'living data' through continuous reanalysis of deposited data.

  18. Global analysis of the Deinococcus radiodurans proteome by using accurate mass tags

    PubMed Central

    Lipton, Mary S.; Paša-Tolić, Ljiljana; Anderson, Gordon A.; Anderson, David J.; Auberry, Deanna L.; Battista, John R.; Daly, Michael J.; Fredrickson, Jim; Hixson, Kim K.; Kostandarithes, Heather; Masselon, Christophe; Markillie, Lye Meng; Moore, Ronald J.; Romine, Margaret F.; Shen, Yufeng; Stritmatter, Eric; Tolić, Nikola; Udseth, Harold R.; Venkateswaran, Amudhan; Wong, Kwong-Kwok; Zhao, Rui; Smith, Richard D.

    2002-01-01

    Understanding biological systems and the roles of their constituents is facilitated by the ability to make quantitative, sensitive, and comprehensive measurements of how their proteome changes, e.g., in response to environmental perturbations. To this end, we have developed a high-throughput methodology to characterize an organism's dynamic proteome based on the combination of global enzymatic digestion, high-resolution liquid chromatographic separations, and analysis by Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry. The peptides produced serve as accurate mass tags for the proteins and have been used to identify with high confidence >61% of the predicted proteome for the ionizing radiation-resistant bacterium Deinococcus radiodurans. This fraction represents the broadest proteome coverage for any organism to date and includes 715 proteins previously annotated as either hypothetical or conserved hypothetical. PMID:12177431

  19. Black hole mass estimation from X-ray variability measurements in active galactic nuclei

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nikolajuk, M.; Papadakis, I. E.; Czerny, B.

    2004-05-01

    We propose a new method of estimation of the black hole masses in active galactic nuclei (AGN) based on the normalized excess variance, σ2nxs. We derive a relation between σ2nxs, the length of the observation, T, the light-curve bin size, Δt, and the black hole mass, assuming that (i) the power spectrum above the high-frequency break, νbf, has a slope of -2, (ii) the high-frequency break scales with black hole mass, (iii) the power-spectrum amplitude (in frequency-power space) is universal and (iv) σ2nxs is calculated from observations of length T < 1/νbf. Values of black hole masses in AGN obtained with this method are consistent with estimates based on other techniques such as reverberation mapping or the MBH-stellar velocity dispersion relation. The method is formally equivalent to methods based on power spectrum scaling with mass, but the use of σ2nxs has the big advantage of being applicable to relatively low-quality data.

  20. RESEARCH PAPER: Old stellar population synthesis: new age and mass estimates for Mayall II = G1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Jun; de Grijs, Richard; Fan, Zhou; Rey, Soo-Chang; Wu, Zhen-Yu; Zhou, Xu; Wu, Jiang-Hua; Jiang, Zhao-Ji; Chen, Jian-Sheng; Lee, Kyungsook; Sohn, Sangmo Tony

    2009-06-01

    Mayall II = G1 is one of the most luminous globular clusters (GCs) in M31. Here, we determine its age and mass by comparing multicolor photometry with theoretical stellar population synthesis models. Based on far- and near-ultraviolet GALEX photometry, broad-band UBVRI, and infrared JHKS 2MASS data, we construct the most extensive spectral energy distribution of G1 to date, spanning the wavelength range from 1538 to 20 000 Å. A quantitative comparison with a variety of simple stellar population (SSP) models yields a mean age which is consistent with G1 being among the oldest building blocks of M31 and having formed within ~1.7 Gyr after the Big Bang. Irrespective of the SSP model or stellar initial mass function adopted, the resulting mass estimates (of order 107 Modot) indicate that G1 is one of the most massive GCs in the Local Group. However, we speculate that the cluster's exceptionally high mass suggests that it may not be a genuine GC. Our results also suggest that G1 may contain, on average, (1.65±0.63) × 102 Lodot far-ultraviolet-bright, hot, extreme horizontal-branch stars, depending on the adopted SSP model. In addition, we demonstrate that extensive multi-passband photometry coupled with SSP analysis enables one to obtain age estimates for old SSPs that have similar accuracies as those from integrated spectroscopy or resolved stellar photometry, provided that some of the free parameters can be constrained independently.

  1. Deriving global parameter estimates for the Noah land surface model using FLUXNET and machine learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chaney, Nathaniel W.; Herman, Jonathan D.; Ek, Michael B.; Wood, Eric F.

    2016-11-01

    With their origins in numerical weather prediction and climate modeling, land surface models aim to accurately partition the surface energy balance. An overlooked challenge in these schemes is the role of model parameter uncertainty, particularly at unmonitored sites. This study provides global parameter estimates for the Noah land surface model using 85 eddy covariance sites in the global FLUXNET network. The at-site parameters are first calibrated using a Latin Hypercube-based ensemble of the most sensitive parameters, determined by the Sobol method, to be the minimum stomatal resistance (rs,min), the Zilitinkevich empirical constant (Czil), and the bare soil evaporation exponent (fxexp). Calibration leads to an increase in the mean Kling-Gupta Efficiency performance metric from 0.54 to 0.71. These calibrated parameter sets are then related to local environmental characteristics using the Extra-Trees machine learning algorithm. The fitted Extra-Trees model is used to map the optimal parameter sets over the globe at a 5 km spatial resolution. The leave-one-out cross validation of the mapped parameters using the Noah land surface model suggests that there is the potential to skillfully relate calibrated model parameter sets to local environmental characteristics. The results demonstrate the potential to use FLUXNET to tune the parameterizations of surface fluxes in land surface models and to provide improved parameter estimates over the globe.

  2. Global runoff estimates derived from GRACE dataset and in situ observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chandanpurkar, H. A.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Reager, J. T.; David, C. H.; Syed, T. H.

    2012-12-01

    Global in situ measurements of river discharge from streamflow gauge-stations are available with some consistency for the past several decades. However, the gauge-stations suffer from three major limitations: 1. Lack of regular maintenance and consequent data gaps; 2. Inadequate density of the gauge-stations in the delta regions at the continental margins; and 3. No representation of the sub-surface runoff. Since 2002, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission has been providing monthly datasets of terrestrial water storage anomaly that can be used to derive runoff values when combined with an atmospheric water balance reanalysis dataset during the last decade. In this research, we compare the GRACE dataset with the corresponding streamflow observations for the world's major river basins. Based on this comparison, we calculate a correction factor to the streamflow observations and estimate adjustment from various limitations on accuracy, from both the GRACE derived runoff estimates as well as those associated with the gauge-station observations, using Bayesian Model Averaging technique. The correction factor is assigned separately for major river basins. Then we apply these correction factors to the streamflow observations outside of the GRACE dataset to produce a gapless, extended time series of global river runoff providing the longevity of the streamflow observations and the improved accuracy due to the GRACE dataset.

  3. Global Assessment of Land Surface Temperature From Geostationary Satellites and Model Estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reichle, Rolf H.; Liu, Q.; Minnis, P.; daSilva, A. M., Jr.; Palikonda, R.; Yost, C. R.

    2012-01-01

    Land surface (or 'skin') temperature (LST) lies at the heart of the surface energy balance and is a key variable in weather and climate models. In this research we compare two global and independent data sets: (i) LST retrievals from five geostationary satellites generated at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) and (ii) LST estimates from the quasi-operational NASA GEOS-5 global modeling and assimilation system. The objective is to thoroughly understand both data sets and their systematic differences in preparation for the assimilation of the LaRC LST retrievals into GEOS-5. As expected, mean differences (MD) and root-mean-square differences (RMSD) between modeled and retrieved LST vary tremendously by region and time of day. Typical (absolute) MD values range from 1-3 K in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude regions to near 10 K in regions where modeled clouds are unrealistic, for example in north-eastern Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and southern Brazil. Typically, model estimates of LST are higher than satellite retrievals during the night and lower during the day. RMSD values range from 1-3 K during the night to 2-5 K during the day, but are larger over the 50-120 W longitude band where the LST retrievals are derived from the FY2E platform

  4. Estimated Global, Regional, and National Disease Burdens Related to Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Consumption in 2010

    PubMed Central

    Singh, Gitanjali M.; Micha, Renata; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Lim, Stephen; Ezzati, Majid; Mozaffarian, Dariush

    2015-01-01

    Background Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are consumed globally and contribute to adiposity. However, the worldwide impact of SSBs on burdens of adiposity-related cardiovascular diseases (CVD), cancers, and diabetes has not been assessed by nation, age, and sex. Methods and Results We modeled global, regional, and national burdens of disease associated with SSB consumption by age/sex in 2010. Data on SSB consumption levels were pooled from national dietary surveys worldwide. The effects of SSB intake on BMI and diabetes, and of elevated BMI on CVD, diabetes, and cancers were derived from large prospective cohort pooling studies. Disease-specific mortality/morbidity data were obtained from Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We computed cause-specific population-attributable fractions for SSB consumption, which were multiplied by cause-specific mortality/morbidity to compute estimates of SSB-attributable death/disability. Analyses were done by country/age/sex; uncertainties of all input data were propagated into final estimates. Worldwide, the model estimated 184,000(95%UI=161,000–208,000) deaths/year attributable to SSB consumption: 133,000(126,000–139,000) from diabetes, 45,000(26,000–61,000) from CVD, and 6,450(4,300–8,600) from cancers. 5.0% of SSB-related deaths occurred in low-income, 70.9% in middle-income, and 24.1% in high-income countries. Proportional mortality due to SSBs ranged from <1% in Japanese >65y to 30% in Mexicans <45y. Among the 20 most populous countries, Mexico had largest absolute (405 deaths/million adults) and proportional (12.1%) deaths from SSBs. A total of 8.5(2.8, 19.2) million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were related to SSB intake (4.5% of diabetes-related DALYs). Conclusions SSBs, are a single, modifiable component of diet, that can impact preventable death/disability in adults in high, middle, and low-income countries, indicating an urgent need for strong global prevention programs

  5. Use of Real-time Satellite Rainfall Information in a Global Flood Estimation System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adler, R. F.; Wu, H.; Tian, Y.

    2012-12-01

    The TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) is a merger of precipitation information from mainly passive microwave sensors on polar orbiting satellites. This information is cross-calibrated in terms of rainrate using data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) flying in an inclined orbit at 35°. A research quality analysis is produced a few months after observation time, but a real-time product is also generated within a few hours of observation. This real-time, or RT, product can be used to quickly diagnose heavy rain events over most of the globe. This rainfall information is also used as the key input into an experimental system, the Global Flood Monitoring System (GFMS), which produces real-time, quasi-global flood estimates. Images and output data are available for use by the community (http://oas.gsfc.nasa.gov/globalflood/). The method uses the 3-hr resolution composite rainfall analyses as input into a hydrological model that calculates water depth and streamflow at each grid (at 0.125 ° latitude-longitude) over the tropics and mid-latitudes. Flood detection and intensity estimates are based on water depth thresholds calculated from a 13-year retrospective run using the satellite rainfall and model. Examination of individual cases in real-time or retrospectively often indicates skill in detecting the occurrence of a flood event and a reasonable evolution of water depth (at the scale of the calculation) and downstream movement of high water levels. A recently published study evaluating calculated flood occurrence from the GFMS against a global flood event database is reviewed. The statistics indicate that flood detection results improve with longer duration (> 3 days) floods and that the statistics are impacted by the presence of large dams, which are not accounted for in the model calculations. Overall, for longer floods in basins without large dams, the Probability of Detection (POD) of floods is ~ 0.7, while the False Alarm Rate

  6. Audit of the global carbon budget: estimate errors and their impact on uptake uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballantyne, A. P.; Andres, R.; Houghton, R.; Stocker, B. D.; Wanninkhof, R.; Anderegg, W.; Cooper, L. A.; DeGrandpre, M.; Tans, P. P.; Miller, J. C.; Alden, C.; White, J. W. C.

    2014-10-01

    Over the last 5 decades monitoring systems have been developed to detect changes in the accumulation of C in the atmosphere, ocean, and land; however, our ability to detect changes in the behavior of the global C cycle is still hindered by measurement and estimate errors. Here we present a rigorous and flexible framework for assessing the temporal and spatial components of estimate error and their impact on uncertainty in net C uptake by the biosphere. We present a novel approach for incorporating temporally correlated random error into the error structure of emission estimates. Based on this approach, we conclude that the 2 σ error of the atmospheric growth rate has decreased from 1.2 Pg C yr-1 in the 1960s to 0.3 Pg C yr-1 in the 2000s, leading to a ~20% reduction in the over-all uncertainty of net global C uptake by the biosphere. While fossil fuel emissions have increased by a factor of 4 over the last 5 decades, 2 σ errors in fossil fuel emissions due to national reporting errors and differences in energy reporting practices have increased from 0.3 Pg C yr-1 in the 1960s to almost 1.0 Pg C yr-1 during the 2000s. At the same time land use emissions have declined slightly over the last 5 decades, but their relative errors remain high. Notably, errors associated with fossil fuel emissions have come to dominate uncertainty in the global C budget and are now comparable to the total emissions from land use, thus efforts to reduce errors in fossil fuel emissions are necessary. Given all the major sources of error in the global C budget that we could identify, we are 93% confident that C uptake has increased and 97% confident that C uptake by the terrestrial biosphere has increased over the last 5 decades. Although the persistence of future C sinks remains unknown and some ecosystem services may be compromised by this continued C uptake (e.g. ocean acidification), it is clear that arguably the greatest ecosystem service currently provided by the biosphere is the

  7. Global estimation of evapotranspiration using a leaf area index-based surface energy and water balance model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Studies of global hydrologic cycles, carbon cycles and climate change are greatly facilitated when global estimates of evapotranspiration (E) are available. We have developed an air-relative-humidity-based two-source (ARTS) E model that simulates the surface energy balance, soil water balance, and e...

  8. Analysing global food waste problem: pinpointing the facts and estimating the energy content

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melikoglu, Mehmet; Lin, Carol; Webb, Colin

    2013-06-01

    Food waste is a global problem. Each year food worth billions of dollars is wasted by the developed economies of the world. When food is wasted, the problem does not end at that point. More than 95% of the food waste ends at landfill sites, where converted into methane, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses by anaerobic digestion. The impact of food waste to climate change is catastrophic. Food waste problem tends to increase in next 25 years due to economic and population growth mainly in Asian countries. In addition, when food wastes buried at landfill sites their energy content is lost. Although food waste is a huge problem, its global size and extent has recently become a hot topic in the academic community. This paper summarises the size of the global food waste problem together with the estimation of the amount of energy lost when food wastes dumped at landfill sites. Calculations in this study also revealed that energy lost at landfill sites equals to 43% of the delivered energy used for the preparation of foods in the US, 37% of the hydroelectric power generation of Japan, and more than 100% of the current annual renewable energy demand of UK industries.

  9. Application of Global Optimization to the Estimation of Surface-Consistent Residual Statics

    SciTech Connect

    Reister, D.B.; Oblow, E.M.; Barhen, J.; DuBose, J.B.

    1999-10-01

    Since the objective function that is used to estimate surface-consistent residual statics can have many local maxima, a global optimization method is required to find the optimum values for the residual statics. As reported in several recent papers, we had developed a new method (TRUST) for solving global optimization problems and had demonstrated it was superior to all competing methods for a standard set of nonconvex benchmark problems. The residual statics problem can be very large with hundreds or thousands of parameters, and large global optimization problems are much harder to solve than small problems. To solve the very challenging residual statics problem, we have made several significant advances in the mathematical description of the residual statics problem (derivation of two novel stack power bounds and disaggregation of the original problem into a large number of small problems). Using the enhanced version of TRUST, we have performed extensive simulations on a realistic sample problem that had been artificially created by large static disruptions. Our simulations have demonstrated that TRUST can reach many plausible distinct ''solutions'' that could not be discovered by more conventional approaches. An unexpected result was that high values of the stack power may be eliminate cycle skips.

  10. Development of a Global Slope Dataset for Estimation of Landslide Occurrence Resulting from Earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Verdin, Kristine L.; Godt, Jonathan W.; Funk, Christopher C.; Pedreros, Diego; Worstell, Bruce; Verdin, James

    2007-01-01

    Landslides resulting from earthquakes can cause widespread loss of life and damage to critical infrastructure. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed an alarm system, PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response), that aims to provide timely information to emergency relief organizations on the impact of earthquakes. Landslides are responsible for many of the damaging effects following large earthquakes in mountainous regions, and thus data defining the topographic relief and slope are critical to the PAGER system. A new global topographic dataset was developed to aid in rapidly estimating landslide potential following large earthquakes. We used the remotely-sensed elevation data collected as part of the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) to generate a slope dataset with nearly global coverage. Slopes from the SRTM data, computed at 3-arc-second resolution, were summarized at 30-arc-second resolution, along with statistics developed to describe the distribution of slope within each 30-arc-second pixel. Because there are many small areas lacking SRTM data and the northern limit of the SRTM mission was lat 60?N., statistical methods referencing other elevation data were used to fill the voids within the dataset and to extrapolate the data north of 60?. The dataset will be used in the PAGER system to rapidly assess the susceptibility of areas to landsliding following large earthquakes.

  11. Merging Psychophysical and Psychometric Theory to Estimate Global Visual State Measures from Forced-Choices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massof, Robert W.; Schmidt, Karen M.; Laby, Daniel M.; Kirschen, David; Meadows, David

    2013-09-01

    Visual acuity, a forced-choice psychophysical measure of visual spatial resolution, is the sine qua non of clinical visual impairment testing in ophthalmology and optometry patients with visual system disorders ranging from refractive error to retinal, optic nerve, or central visual system pathology. Visual acuity measures are standardized against a norm, but it is well known that visual acuity depends on a variety of stimulus parameters, including contrast and exposure duration. This paper asks if it is possible to estimate a single global visual state measure from visual acuity measures as a function of stimulus parameters that can represent the patient's overall visual health state with a single variable. Psychophysical theory (at the sensory level) and psychometric theory (at the decision level) are merged to identify the conditions that must be satisfied to derive a global visual state measure from parameterised visual acuity measures. A global visual state measurement model is developed and tested with forced-choice visual acuity measures from 116 subjects with no visual impairments and 560 subjects with uncorrected refractive error. The results are in agreement with the expectations of the model.

  12. Global CO2 simulation using GOSAT-based surface CO2 flux estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takagi, H.; Oda, T.; Saito, M.; Valsala, V.; Belikov, D.; Saeki, T.; Saito, R.; Morino, I.; Uchino, O.; Yoshida, Y.; Yokota, Y.; Bril, A.; Oshchepkov, S.; Andres, R. J.; Maksyutov, S.

    2012-04-01

    Investigating the distribution and temporal variability of surface CO2 fluxes is an active research topic in the field of contemporary carbon cycle dynamics. The technique central to this effort is atmospheric inverse modeling with which surface CO2 fluxes are estimated by making corrections to a priori flux estimates such that mismatches between model-predicted and observed CO2 concentrations are minimized. Past investigations were carried out by utilizing CO2 measurements collected in global networks of surface-based monitoring sites. Now, datasets of column-averaged CO2 dry air mole fraction (XCO2) retrieved from spectral soundings collected by GOSAT are available for complementing the surface-based CO2 observations. These space-based XCO2 data are expected to enhance the spatiotemporal coverage of the existing surface observation network and thus reduce uncertainty associated with the surface flux estimates. We estimated monthly CO2 fluxes in 64 sub-continental regions from a subset of the surface-based GLOBALVIEW CO2 data and the GOSAT FTS SWIR Level 2 XCO2 retrievals. We further simulated CO2 concentrations in 3-D model space using the surface flux estimates obtained. In this presentation, we report the result of a comparison between the simulated CO2 concentrations and independent surface observations. As part of an effort in inter-comparing GOSAT-based surface CO2 flux estimates, we also look at results yielded with XCO2 data retrieved with the PPDF-DOAS algorithm and those made available by the NASA Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space team. For this study, we used version 08.1 of the National Institute for Environmental Studies atmospheric transport model, which was driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's JCDAS wind analysis data. The CO2 forward simulations were performed on 2.5° × 2.5° horizontal grids at 32 vertical levels between the surface and the top of the atmosphere. The a priori flux dataset used was comprised of the sum of four

  13. Estimating How Often Mass Extinctions Due to Impacts Occur on the Earth

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buratti, Bonnie J.

    2013-01-01

    This hands-on, inquiry based activity has been taught at JPL's summer workshop "Teachers Touch the Sky" for the past two decades. Students act as mini-investigators as they gather and analyze data to estimate how often an impact large enough to cause a mass extinction occurs on the Earth. Large craters are counted on the Moon, and this number is extrapolated to the size of the Earth. Given the age of the Solar System, the students can then estimate how often large impacts occur on the Earth. This activity is based on an idea by Dr. David Morrison, NASA Ames Research Center.

  14. Muscle Mass and Body Fat in Relation to Cardiovascular Risk Estimation and Lipid-Lowering Eligibility.

    PubMed

    Lee, Kayoung

    2016-12-06

    This cross-sectional population-based study aimed to evaluate the relationships of muscle-mass and body-fat phenotypes to 10-yr risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and eligibility for lipid management. Participants were Korean adults (N = 7315; 3163 men, 4152 women) aged 40-79 yr, free from stroke and coronary heart disease, who provided complete data for estimating 10-yr CVD risk and body composition during the Fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2009-2010). Four levels of combined muscle mass and body fat were determined using sex-specific quintiles of appendicular skeletal muscle mass divided by height squared, and sex-specific quintiles of total body fat percentage. Ten-year CVD risk was calculated using Pooled Cohort Equations and Framingham risk scores. Lipid-lowering medication eligibility was determined using American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) and Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III guidelines. Compared with the reference group, the risk of CVD events was higher in men with low muscle mass, high body fat, or the 2 factors combined. CVD risk was lower in women with low muscle mass, higher in women with high body fat, and nonsignificant in women with the 2 factors. Participants with low muscle mass and high body fat had higher odds for medication eligibility using the ACC/AHA guidelines but not the ATP III guidelines. Higher estimated 10-yr CVD risk was associated with combined phenotypes of low muscle mass and high fat in men but not in women. Also, the relationship of these phenotypes to lipid-lowering medication eligibility was guideline-specific.

  15. Improved global high resolution precipitation estimation using multi-satellite multi-spectral information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Behrangi, Ali

    In respond to the community demands, combining microwave (MW) and infrared (IR) estimates of precipitation has been an active area of research since past two decades. The anticipated launching of NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission and the increasing number of spectral bands in recently launched geostationary platforms will provide greater opportunities for investigating new approaches to combine multi-source information towards improved global high resolution precipitation retrievals. After years of the communities' efforts the limitations of the existing techniques are: (1) Drawbacks of IR-only techniques to capture warm rainfall and screen out no-rain thin cirrus clouds; (2) Grid-box- only dependency of many algorithms with not much effort to capture the cloud textures whether in local or cloud patch scale; (3) Assumption of indirect relationship between rain rate and cloud-top temperature that force high intensity precipitation to any cold cloud; (4) Neglecting the dynamics and evolution of cloud in time; (5) Inconsistent combination of MW and IR-based precipitation estimations due to the combination strategies and as a result of above described shortcomings. This PhD dissertation attempts to improve the combination of data from Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) and Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites in manners that will allow consistent high resolution integration of the more accurate precipitation estimates, directly observed through LEO's PMW sensors, into the short-term cloud evolution process, which can be inferred from GEO images. A set of novel approaches are introduced to cope with the listed limitations and is consist of the following four consecutive components: (1) starting with the GEO part and by using an artificial-neural network based method it is demonstrated that inclusion of multi-spectral data can ameliorate existing problems associated with IR-only precipitating retrievals; (2) through development of Precipitation Estimation

  16. Muon g-2 estimates: can one trust effective Lagrangians and global fits?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benayoun, M.; David, P.; DelBuono, L.; Jegerlehner, F.

    2015-12-01

    Previous studies have shown that the Hidden Local Symmetry (HLS) model, supplied with appropriate symmetry breaking mechanisms, provides an effective Lagrangian (Broken Hidden Local Symmetry, BHLS) which encompasses a large number of processes within a unified framework. Based on it, a global fit procedure allows for a simultaneous description of the e^+ e^- annihilation into six final states—π ^+π ^-, π ^0γ , η γ , π ^+π ^-π ^0, K^+K^-, K_L K_S—and includes the dipion spectrum in the τ decay and some more light meson decay partial widths. The contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment a_{μ }^{th} of these annihilation channels over the range of validity of the HLS model (up to 1.05 GeV) is found much improved in comparison to the standard approach of integrating the measured spectra directly. However, because most spectra for the annihilation process e^+e^- → π ^+π ^- undergo overall scale uncertainties which dominate the other sources, one may suspect some bias in the dipion contribution to a_{μ }^{th}, which could question the reliability of the global fit method. However, an iterated global fit algorithm, shown to lead to unbiased results by a Monte Carlo study, is defined and applied successfully to the e^+e^- → π ^+π ^- data samples from CMD2, SND, KLOE, BaBar, and BESSIII. The iterated fit solution is shown to further improve the prediction for a_{μ }, which we find to deviate from its experimental value above the 4σ level. The contribution to a_{μ } of the π ^+π ^- intermediate state up to 1.05 GeV has an uncertainty about 3 times smaller than the corresponding usual estimate. Therefore, global fit techniques are shown to work and lead to improved unbiased results.

  17. Biomass burning emissions estimated with a global fire assimilation system based on observed fire radiative power

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaiser, J. W.; Heil, A.; Andreae, M. O.; Benedetti, A.; Chubarova, N.; Jones, L.; Morcrette, J.-J.; Razinger, M.; Schultz, M. G.; Suttie, M.; van der Werf, G. R.

    2011-07-01

    The Global Fire Assimilation System (GFASv1.0) calculates biomass burning emissions by assimilating Fire Radiative Power (FRP) observations from the MODIS instruments onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. It corrects for gaps in the observations, which are mostly due to cloud cover, and filters spurious FRP observations of volcanoes, gas flares and other industrial activity. The combustion rate is subsequently calculated with land cover-specific conversion factors. Emission factors for 40 gas-phase and aerosol trace species have been compiled from a literature survey. The corresponding daily emissions have been calculated on a global 0.5° × 0.5° grid from 2003 to the present. General consistency with the Global Fire Emission Database version 3.1 (GFED3.1) within its accuracy is achieved while maintaining the advantages of an FRP-based approach: GFASv1.0 makes use of the quantitative information on the combustion rate that is contained in the observations, and it detects fires in real time at high spatial and temporal resolution. GFASv1.0 indicates omission errors in GFED3.1 due to undetected small fires. It also exhibits slightly longer fire seasons in South America and North Africa and a slightly shorter fire season in Southeast Asia. GFASv1.0 has already been used for atmospheric reactive gas simulations in an independent study, which found good agreement with atmospheric observations. We have performed simulations of the atmospheric aerosol distribution with and without the assimilation of MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD). They indicate that the emissions of particulate matter need to be boosted with a factor of 2-4 to reproduce the global distribution of organic matter and black carbon. This discrepancy is also evident in the comparison of previously published top-down and bottom-up estimates. For the time being, a global enhancement of the particulate matter emissions by 3.4 is recommended. Validation with independent AOD and PM10 observations recorded

  18. Biomass burning emissions estimated with a global fire assimilation system based on observed fire radiative power

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaiser, J. W.; Heil, A.; Andreae, M. O.; Benedetti, A.; Chubarova, N.; Jones, L.; Morcrette, J.-J.; Razinger, M.; Schultz, M. G.; Suttie, M.; van der Werf, G. R.

    2012-01-01

    The Global Fire Assimilation System (GFASv1.0) calculates biomass burning emissions by assimilating Fire Radiative Power (FRP) observations from the MODIS instruments onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. It corrects for gaps in the observations, which are mostly due to cloud cover, and filters spurious FRP observations of volcanoes, gas flares and other industrial activity. The combustion rate is subsequently calculated with land cover-specific conversion factors. Emission factors for 40 gas-phase and aerosol trace species have been compiled from a literature survey. The corresponding daily emissions have been calculated on a global 0.5° × 0.5° grid from 2003 to the present. General consistency with the Global Fire Emission Database version 3.1 (GFED3.1) within its accuracy is achieved while maintaining the advantages of an FRP-based approach: GFASv1.0 makes use of the quantitative information on the combustion rate that is contained in the FRP observations, and it detects fires in real time at high spatial and temporal resolution. GFASv1.0 indicates omission errors in GFED3.1 due to undetected small fires. It also exhibits slightly longer fire seasons in South America and North Africa and a slightly shorter fire season in Southeast Asia. GFASv1.0 has already been used for atmospheric reactive gas simulations in an independent study, which found good agreement with atmospheric observations. We have performed simulations of the atmospheric aerosol distribution with and without the assimilation of MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD). They indicate that the emissions of particulate matter need to be boosted by a factor of 2-4 to reproduce the global distribution of organic matter and black carbon. This discrepancy is also evident in the comparison of previously published top-down and bottom-up estimates. For the time being, a global enhancement of the particulate matter emissions by 3.4 is recommended. Validation with independent AOD and PM10 observations recorded

  19. Water mass change in the Amazon basin estimated by multi-temporal SAR data, GRACE gravimetry and water level observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spiridonova, S.; Seitz, F.; Hedman, K.; Meyer, F.

    2012-04-01

    The 2007 IPCC assessment report identified the land hydrology as one of the most uncertain components of the global water cycle. Variations of continental water masses occur in several compartments (e.g. surface and soil water, snow/ice, and groundwater). Mass variations and related changes of surface water exten-sions are being observed by contemporary space and in-situ observation systems such as GRACE gravim-etry, altimetry, optical/infrared sensors, SAR/InSAR, and in-situ river gauges. In this session we will present a regional multi-sensor study in the Amazon basin. The study focuses on the quantification of variations of water mass and water surface extent caused by extreme flood and drought situations that were frequent during the last decade. PALSAR data of two extreme events was selected; once when the Amazon River was flooded (March/April 2009) and once when the region suffered from a se-vere drought (October/November 2009). The advantage of using PALSAR is that it operates in L-Band and has the possibility to penetrate through the vegetation which is essential in the Amazon basin with its dense vegetation. Time series of water level variations were obtained from two in-situ gauges at Manacapuru and Obidos as well as from Envisat satellite altimetry. Total water storage change in the whole region was given by GRACE gravimetry. First, the variation of water mass is computed numerically using GRACE. Second the water level variations obtained from the two river gauges are analyzed with respect to observation of Envisat. Third the surface water extent is estimated by extracting water masks from PALSAR image data. The water mass change is obtained by intersecting the water masks with a medium resolution digital elevation model (SRTM). More specifically, water heights along the boundary of the river body were extracted from the DEM and processed for error reduction. Then, pixel heights within the river contour were interpolated with a Delaunay triangula

  20. Mass estimating techniques for earth-to-orbit transports with various configuration factors and technologies applied

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Klich, P. J.; Macconochie, I. O.

    1979-01-01

    A study of an array of advanced earth-to-orbit space transportation systems with a focus on mass properties and technology requirements is presented. Methods of estimating weights of these vehicles differ from those used for commercial and military aircraft; the new techniques emphasizing winged horizontal and vertical takeoff advanced systems are described utilizing the space shuttle subsystem data base for the weight estimating equations. The weight equations require information on mission profile, the structural materials, the thermal protection system, and the ascent propulsion system, allowing for the type of construction and various propellant tank shapes. The overall system weights are calculated using this information and incorporated into the Systems Engineering Mass Properties Computer Program.

  1. Polychromatic sparse image reconstruction and mass attenuation spectrum estimation via B-spline basis function expansion

    SciTech Connect

    Gu, Renliang E-mail: ald@iastate.edu; Dogandžić, Aleksandar E-mail: ald@iastate.edu

    2015-03-31

    We develop a sparse image reconstruction method for polychromatic computed tomography (CT) measurements under the blind scenario where the material of the inspected object and the incident energy spectrum are unknown. To obtain a parsimonious measurement model parameterization, we first rewrite the measurement equation using our mass-attenuation parameterization, which has the Laplace integral form. The unknown mass-attenuation spectrum is expanded into basis functions using a B-spline basis of order one. We develop a block coordinate-descent algorithm for constrained minimization of a penalized negative log-likelihood function, where constraints and penalty terms ensure nonnegativity of the spline coefficients and sparsity of the density map image in the wavelet domain. This algorithm alternates between a Nesterov’s proximal-gradient step for estimating the density map image and an active-set step for estimating the incident spectrum parameters. Numerical simulations demonstrate the performance of the proposed scheme.

  2. THE LICK AGN MONITORING PROJECT: RECALIBRATING SINGLE-EPOCH VIRIAL BLACK HOLE MASS ESTIMATES

    SciTech Connect

    Park, Daeseong; Woo, Jong-Hak; Treu, Tommaso; Bennert, Vardha N.; Barth, Aaron J.; Walsh, Jonelle; Bentz, Misty C.; Canalizo, Gabriela; Filippenko, Alexei V.; Gates, Elinor; Greene, Jenny E.; Malkan, Matthew A.

    2012-03-01

    We investigate the calibration and uncertainties of black hole (BH) mass estimates based on the single-epoch (SE) method, using homogeneous and high-quality multi-epoch spectra obtained by the Lick Active Galactic Nucleus (AGN) Monitoring Project for nine local Seyfert 1 galaxies with BH masses <10{sup 8} M{sub Sun }. By decomposing the spectra into their AGNs and stellar components, we study the variability of the SE H{beta} line width (full width at half-maximum intensity, FWHM{sub H{beta}} or dispersion, {sigma}{sub H{beta}}) and of the AGN continuum luminosity at 5100 A (L{sub 5100}). From the distribution of the 'virial products' ({proportional_to} FWHM{sub H{beta}}{sup 2} L{sup 0.5}{sub 5100} or {sigma}{sub H{beta}}{sup 2} L{sup 0.5}{sub 5100}) measured from SE spectra, we estimate the uncertainty due to the combined variability as {approx}0.05 dex (12%). This is subdominant with respect to the total uncertainty in SE mass estimates, which is dominated by uncertainties in the size-luminosity relation and virial coefficient, and is estimated to be {approx}0.46 dex (factor of {approx}3). By comparing the H{beta} line profile of the SE, mean, and root-mean-square (rms) spectra, we find that the H{beta} line is broader in the mean (and SE) spectra than in the rms spectra by {approx}0.1 dex (25%) for our sample with FWHM{sub H{beta}} <3000 km s{sup -1}. This result is at variance with larger mass BHs where the difference is typically found to be much less than 0.1 dex. To correct for this systematic difference of the H{beta} line profile, we introduce a line-width dependent virial factor, resulting in a recalibration of SE BH mass estimators for low-mass AGNs.

  3. System analysis to estimate subsurface flow: From global level to the State of Minnesota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shmagin, B.A.; Kanivetsky, R.

    2002-01-01

    Stream runoff data globally and in the state of Minnesota were used to estimate subsurface water flow. This system approach is based, in principal, on unity of groundwater and surface water systems, and it is in stark contrast to the traditional deterministic approach based on modeling. In coordination with methodology of system analysis, two levels of study were used to estimate subsurface flow. First, the global stream runoff data were assessed to estimate the temporal-spatial variability of surface water runoff. Factor analysis was used to study the temporal-spatial variability of global runoff for the period from 1918 to 1967. Results of these analysis demonstrate that the variability of global runoff could be represented by seven major components (factor scores) that could be grouped into seven distinct independent grouping from the total of 18 continental slopes on the Earth. Computed variance value in this analysis is 76% and supports such analysis. The global stream runoff for this period is stationary, and is more closely connected with the stream flow of Asia to the Pacific Ocean as well as with the stream runoff of North America towards the Arctic and Pacific Oceans. The second level examines the distribution of river runoff (annual and for February) for various landscapes and the hydrogeological conditions in the State of Minnesota (218,000 km2). The annual and minimal monthly rate of stream runoff for 115 gauging stations with a period of observation of 47 years (1935-1981) were used to characterize the spatio-temporal distribution of stream runoff in Minnesota. Results of this analysis demonstrate that the annual stream runoff rate changes from 6.3, towards 3.95, and then to 2.09 1 s-1 km-2 (the difference is significant based on Student's criteria). These values in Minnesota correspond to ecological provinces from a mixed forest province towards the broadleaf forest and to prairie province, respectively. The distribution of minimal monthly stream

  4. Accuracy of a low-cost global positioning system receiver for estimating grade during outdoor walking.

    PubMed

    de Müllenheim, Pierre-Yves; Chaudru, Ségolène; Gernigon, Marie; Mahé, Guillaume; Bickert, Sandrine; Prioux, Jacques; Noury-Desvaux, Bénédicte; Le Faucheur, Alexis

    2016-09-21

    The aim of this study was to assess, for the first time, the accuracy of a low-cost global positioning system (GPS) receiver for estimating grade during outdoor walking. Thirty subjects completed outdoor walks (2.0, 3.5 and 5.0 km · h(-1)) in three randomized conditions: 1/level walking on a 0.0% grade; 2/graded (uphill and downhill) walking on a 3.4% grade; and 3/on a 10.4% grade. Subjects were equipped with a GPS receiver (DG100, GlobalSat Technology Corp., Taiwan; ~US$75). The GPS receiver was set to record at 1 Hz and its antenna was placed on the right shoulder. Grade was calculated from GPS speed and altitude data (grade  =  altitude variation/travelled distance  ×  100). Two methods were used for the grade calculation: one using uncorrected altitude data given by the GPS receiver and another one using corrected altitude data obtained using map projection software (CartoExploreur, version 3.11.0, build 2.6.6.22, Bayo Ltd, Appoigny, France, ~US$35). Linear regression of GPS-estimated versus actual grade with R (2) coefficients, bias with 95% limits of agreement (±95% LoA), and typical error of the estimate with 95% confidence interval (TEE (95% CI)) were computed to assess the accuracy of the GPS receiver. 444 walking periods were performed. Using uncorrected altitude data, we obtained: R (2)  =  0.88 (p  <  0.001), bias  =  0.0  ±  6.6%, TEE between 1.9 (1.7-2.2)% and 4.2 (3.6-4.9)% according to the grade level. Using corrected altitude data, we obtained: R (2)  =  0.98 (p  <  0.001), bias  =  0.2  ±  1.9%, TEE between 0.2 (0.2-0.3)% and 1.0 (0.9-1.2)% according to the grade level. The low-cost GPS receiver used was weakly accurate for estimating grade during outdoor walking when using uncorrected altitude data. However, the accuracy was greatly improved when using corrected altitude data. This study supports the potential interest of using GPS for estimating energy

  5. Volume and Mass Estimation of Three-Phase High Power Transformers for Space Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kimnach, Greg L.

    2004-01-01

    Spacecraft historically have had sub-1kW(sub e), electrical requirements for GN&C, science, and communications: Galileo at 600W(sub e), and Cassini at 900W(sub e), for example. Because most missions have had the same order of magnitude power requirements, the Power Distribution Systems (PDS) use existing, space-qualified technology and are DC. As science payload and mission duration requirements increase, however, the required electrical power increases. Subsequently, this requires a change from a passive energy conversion (solar arrays and batteries) to dynamic (alternator, solar dynamic, etc.), because dynamic conversion has higher thermal and conversion efficiencies, has higher power densities, and scales more readily to higher power levels. Furthermore, increased power requirements and physical distribution lengths are best served with high-voltage, multi-phase AC to maintain distribution efficiency and minimize voltage drops. The generated AC-voltage must be stepped-up (or down) to interface with various subsystems or electrical hardware. Part of the trade-space design for AC distribution systems is volume and mass estimation of high-power transformers. The volume and mass are functions of the power rating, operating frequency, the ambient and allowable temperature rise, the types and amount of heat transfer available, the core material and shape, the required flux density in a core, the maximum current density, etc. McLyman has tabulated the performance of a number of transformers cores and derived a "cookbook" methodology to determine the volume of transformers, whereas Schawrze had derived an empirical method to estimate the mass of single-phase transformers. Based on the work of McLyman and Schwarze, it is the intent herein to derive an empirical solution to the volume and mass estimation of three-phase, laminated EI-core power transformers, having radiated and conducted heat transfer mechanisms available. Estimation of the mounting hardware, connectors

  6. Thickening and Thinning of Antarctic Ice Shelves and Tongues and Mass Balance Estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zwally, H. Jay; Li, Jun; Giovinetto, Mario; Robbins, John; Saba, Jack L.; Yi, Donghui

    2011-01-01

    Previous analysis of elevation changes for 1992 to 2002 obtained from measurements by radar altimeters on ERS-l and 2 showed that the shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) and along the coast of West Antarctica (WA), including the eastern part of the Ross Ice Shelf, were mostly thinning and losing mass whereas the Ronne Ice shelf also in WA was mostly thickening. The estimated total mass loss for the floating ice shelves and ice tongues from ice draining WA and the AP was 95 Gt/a. In contrast, the floating ice shelves and ice tongues from ice draining East Antarctica (EA), including the Filchner, Fimbul, Amery, and Western Ross, were mostly thickening with a total estimated mass gain of 142 Gt/a. Data from ICESat laser altimetry for 2003-2008 gives new surface elevation changes (dH/dt) with some similar values for the earlier and latter periods, including -27.6 and -26.9 cm a-Ion the West Getz ice shelf and -42.4 and - 27.2 cm/a on the East Getz ice shelf, and some values that indicate more thinning in the latter period, including -17.9 and -36.2 cm/a on the Larsen C ice shelf, -35.5 and -76.0 cm/a on the Pine Island Glacier floating, -60.5 and -125.7 .cm/a on the Smith Glacier floating, and -34.4 and -108.9 cm/a on the Thwaites Glacier floating. Maps of measured dH/dt and estimated thickness change are produced along with mass change estimates for 2003 - 2008.

  7. Sunshine and global solar radiation estimation at different sites in Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Metwally, Mossad

    2005-09-01

    A simple non-linear method is proposed for estimating relative sunshine duration based on monthly mean daily maximum and minimum air temperatures and cloud cover fraction at six sites in Egypt, where long-term period (9 15 years) data were recorded. This method gives low errors (mean bias error is about -0.4% and root mean square is about 2.3% for pooled data), so it can be used in case of unavailability of sunshine duration data. Also, a non-linear equation has been proposed at the same sites to estimate monthly mean daily global radiation based on observed and estimated values of relative sunshine duration. This method was compared with linear Ångström Prescott and double linear of Garg Garg equation. These methods were tested seasonally and at different sky conditions (clear, partially cloudy and overcast skies). Also they have been tested against 32 stations dataset, at worldwide sites. The results show that the bias error for the proposed method is low, average values to mean bias error and root mean square error are around 0.1% and 6%, respectively, while they are around 3% and 7% to the other methods at pooled data. Generally, the proposed method preformed better than the others.

  8. Estimation of daily global solar irradiation under different sky conditions in central and southern Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Didari, Shohreh; Zand-Parsa, Shahrokh

    2017-02-01

    Daily global solar irradiation ( R s) is one of the main inputs in environmental modeling. Because of the lack of its measuring facilities, high-quality and long-term data are limited. In this research, R s values were estimated based on measured sunshine duration and cloud cover of our synoptic meteorological stations in central and southern Iran during 2008, 2009, and 2011. Clear sky solar irradiation was estimated from linear regression using extraterrestrial solar irradiation as the independent variable with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 4.69 %. Daily R s was calibrated using measured sunshine duration and cloud cover data under different sky conditions during 2008 and 2009. The 2011 data were used for model validation. According to the results, in the presence of clouds, the R s model using sunshine duration data was more accurate when compared with the model using cloud cover data (NRMSE = 11. 69 %). In both models, with increasing sky cloudiness, the accuracy decreased. In the study region, more than 92 % of sunshine durations were clear or partly cloudy, which received close to 95 % of total solar irradiation. Hence, it was possible to estimate solar irradiation with a good accuracy in most days with the measurements of sunshine duration.

  9. Global Radius of Curvature Estimation and Control for the Hobby-Eberly Telescope

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rakoczy, John; Hall, Drew; Howard, Ricky; Ly, William; Weir, John; Montgomery, Edward; Brantley, Lott W. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    A system, which estimates the global radius of curvature (GroC) and corrects for changes in GroC on a segmented primary mirror has been developed for and verified on McDonald Observatory's Hobby Eberly Telescope (HET). The GroC estimation and control system utilizes HET's primary mirror control (PMC) system and the Segment Alignment Maintenance System (SAMS), an inductive edge sensor system. A special set of boundary conditions is applied to the derivation of the optimal edge match control. The special boundary conditions allow the further derivation of an observer, which enables estimation and control of the Groc mode to within HET's specification. The magnitude of the GroC mode can then be controlled despite the inability of the SAMS edge sensor system, by itself, to observe or control the GroC mode. The observer can be extended to any segmented mirror telescope. It will be shown that the observer improves with accuracy as the number of segments increases. This paper presents the mathematical theory of the observer. Simulation results will demonstrate the inherent accuracy and robustness of the system. Performance verification data from the HET will be presented.

  10. The Ground Reference for the Validation of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project Monthly Rainfall Estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woldemariam, M. G.; Krajewski, W. F.

    2002-05-01

    The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) provides 2.5 degree * 2.5 degree gridded datasets of monthly rainfall accumulation comprising in-situ observation from rain gauge and satellite derived rainfall estimates. The authors examined the issues involved in quantifying the error variance of the GPCP products. The datasets for this study came from one site over Thailand, which is equipped with an exceptional dense network of rain gauges. The authors applied the Error Variance Separation Method (EVSM), which allows assessment of the error variance separately for the gauges and GPCP estimates. An important assumption of this approach is a statistical independence between GPCP errors and gauge sampling errors. The authors showed the magnitude of the errors introduced in the GPCP estimates due to such an assumption. The authors studied the errors introduced in quantifying the GPCP error variance due to the EVSM method, for various gauge sampling density and spatial configuration of gauges, using Monte Carlo techniques. Generally speaking, 20 gauges uniformly spaced over the GPCP box area are a minimum to obtain the uncertainty of the GPCP products with an error of on the order of less than 10 percent.

  11. Neutrino Masses in the Landscape and Global-Local Dualities in Eternal Inflation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mainemer Katz, Dan

    In this dissertation we study two topics in Theoretical Cosmology: one more formal, the other more phenomenological. We work in the context of eternally inflating cosmologies. These arise in any fundamental theory that contains at least one stable or metastable de Sitter vacuum. Each topic is presented in a different chapter: Chapter 1 deals with the measure problem in eternal inflation. Global-local duality is the equivalence of seemingly different regulators in eternal inflation. For example, the light- cone time cutoff (a global measure, which regulates time) makes the same predictions as the causal patch (a local measure that cuts off space). We show that global-local duality is far more general. It rests on a redundancy inherent in any global cutoff: at late times, an attractor regime is reached, characterized